production risk evaluation: Topics by WorldWideScience.org

Sample records for production risk evaluation

Risk identification and evaluation of customer collaboration in product development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuefeng Zhang

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify risk factors that caused by customer collaboration in new product development systematically, and propose an approach to judge which risk factors are critical and catch substantial attention. Design/methodology/approach: This study identifies risk factors according to the results of case studies of enterprises in china. On this basis, an improved rough number approach is put forward to evaluate the importance of risk factors. Findings: Firstly, classify risk factors into three aspects. Then, present a risk factor set, which include thirty-seven risk factors. At last, determine which risk factors are critical by using an improved rough number approach. Originality/value: Considering there are few researches studying comprehensive risk factors of customer collaboration and assessing them, this paper explores a risk factor set of customer collaboration in product development stage, and proposes a novel approach, which can help to solve the problem of subjective, vague and lack of prior information of evaluation, to evaluate risk factors.
Evaluation of AECB-1119, risk of energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1978-01-01

The Inhaber report, 'Risk of Energy Production', is evaluated based on how the conclusions of the report match its objectives, the methodology used to reach the report's conclusions, and the presentation of the report. The authors recommend that a second volume containing the pertinent data used in the report should be published; and that total risks should be calculated ignoring material acquisition, construction and transportation risks, using the actual energy output of the various systems without imposing a backup energy supply, and comparing systems in such a way that death, injury and disease risks may be considered separately. They propose that the Atomic Energy Control Board should show how the report results relate to nuclear safety, and that the AECB should clarify the criteria for evaluating the small probability of a catastrophic nuclear accident. The response of the author of AECB--1119 is given in a separate section
Comparative evaluation by lifecycle and risk assessment of agrobiological and technological routes of production

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Moll, H.C.; Schoot Uiterkamp, A.J.M.

The application of lifecycle and risk assessment methodologies for environmental assessment of agricultural products is growing and produces interesting results. This allows comparisons between agricultural and technological routes of production. An evaluation of such assessments provides increased
Risk management in technovigilance: construction and validation of a medical-hospital product evaluation instrument.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuwabara, Cleuza Catsue Takeda; Evora, Yolanda Dora Martinez; de Oliveira, Márcio Mattos Borges

2010-01-01

With the continuous incorporation of health technologies, hospital risk management should be implemented to systemize the monitoring of adverse effects, performing actions to control and eliminate their damage. As part of these actions, Technovigilance is active in the procedures of acquisition, use and quality control of health products and equipment. This study aimed to construct and validate an instrument to evaluate medical-hospital products. This is a quantitative, exploratory, longitudinal and methodological development study, based on the Six Sigma quality management model, which has as its principle basis the component stages of the DMAIC Cycle. For data collection and content validation, the Delphi technique was used with professionals from the Brazilian Sentinel Hospital Network. It was concluded that the instrument developed permitted the evaluation of the product, differentiating between the results of the tested brands, in line with the initial study goal of qualifying the evaluations performed.
Development and Justification of a Risk Evaluation Matrix To Guide Chemical Testing Necessary To Select and Qualify Plastic Components Used in Production Systems for Pharmaceutical Products.

Science.gov (United States)

Jenke, Dennis

2015-01-01

An accelerating trend in the pharmaceutical industry is the use of plastic components in systems used to produce an active pharmaceutical ingredient or a finished drug product. If the active pharmaceutical ingredient, the finished drug product, or any solution used to generate them (for example, a process stream such as media, buffers, eluents, and the like) is contacted by a plastic component at any time during the production process, substances leached from the component may accumulate in the active pharmaceutical ingredient or finished drug product, affecting its safety and/or efficacy. In this article the author develops and justifies a semi-quantitative risk evaluation matrix that is used to determine the amount and rigor of component testing necessary and appropriate to establish that the component is chemically suitable for its intended use. By considering key properties of the component, the contact medium, the contact conditions, and the active pharmaceutical ingredient's or finished drug product's clinical conditions of use, use of the risk evaluation matrix produces a risk score whose magnitude reflects the accumulated risk that the component will interact with the contact solution to such an extent that component-related extractables will accumulate in the active pharmaceutical ingredient or finished drug product as leachables at levels sufficiently high to adversely affect user safety. The magnitude of the risk score establishes the amount and rigor of the testing that is required to select and qualify the component, and such testing is broadly grouped into three categories: baseline assessment, general testing, and full testing (extractables profiling). Production suites used to generate pharmaceuticals can include plastic components. It is possible that substances in the components could leach into manufacturing solutions and accumulate in the pharmaceutical product. In this article the author develops and justifies a semi-quantitative risk
Examining relationships between multiple health risk behaviors, well-being, and productivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Evers, Kerry E; Castle, Patricia H; Prochaska, James O; Prochaska, Janice M

2014-06-01

Traditionally, the concept of health promotion has emphasized the reduction of health risk behaviors to reduce disease and impairment. Well-being research expands this focus to include positive constructs such as thriving, productivity, life-evaluation, and emotional and physical health. The objective of the present study was to examine the relationships between health risk behaviors and specific measures of individual well-being. Participants (N = 790) from 49 states completed a one-time online assessment that included the Life-Evaluation Index, Emotional and Physical Health Ladders, the Health Risk Intervention Assessment, and the Work Productivity and Activity Improvement Questionnaire for General Health. Life Evaluation and physical and emotional health were all inversely related to the number of health risk behaviors, with higher well-being scores associated with lower number of risk behaviors. Across the three Life Evaluation categories (Suffering, Struggling, and Thriving) the number of health risk behaviors decreased, productivity loss decreased, and emotional and physical health increased. The results add to previous research on how reducing multiple health risk behaviors can be combined with well-being, i.e., an emphasis on increasing life-evaluation, emotional and physical health, better functioning, and productivity.
A risk analysis for production processes with disposable bioreactors.

Science.gov (United States)

Merseburger, Tobias; Pahl, Ina; Müller, Daniel; Tanner, Markus

2014-01-01

: Quality management systems are, as a rule, tightly defined systems that conserve existing processes and therefore guarantee compliance with quality standards. But maintaining quality also includes introducing new enhanced production methods and making use of the latest findings of bioscience. The advances in biotechnology and single-use manufacturing methods for producing new drugs especially impose new challenges on quality management, as quality standards have not yet been set. New methods to ensure patient safety have to be established, as it is insufficient to rely only on current rules. A concept of qualification, validation, and manufacturing procedures based on risk management needs to be established and realized in pharmaceutical production. The chapter starts with an introduction to the regulatory background of the manufacture of medicinal products. It then continues with key methods of risk management. Hazards associated with the production of medicinal products with single-use equipment are described with a focus on bioreactors, storage containers, and connecting devices. The hazards are subsequently evaluated and criteria for risk evaluation are presented. This chapter concludes with aspects of industrial application of quality risk management.
Evaluation of the productivity decrease risk due to a future increase in tropical cyclone intensity in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Esteban, Miguel; Longarte-Galnares, Gorka

2010-12-01

A number of scientists have recently conducted research that shows that tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase in the future. This would result in an increase in the damage along with a decrease in economic productivity due to precautionary cessation of the economic activity of the affected areas during the passage of the cyclone. The economic effect of this stop in economic activity is a phenomenon that has not received much attention in the past, and the cumulative effect that it can have on the Japanese economy over the next 75 years has never been evaluated. The starting point for the evaluation of the economic risks is the change in the patterns of tropical cyclone intensity suggested by Knutson and Tuleya. The results obtained show how a significant decrease in the overall productivity of the country could be expected, which could lower GDP by between 6% and 13% by 2085. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.
Benefit-Risk Assessment, Communication, and Evaluation (BRACE) throughout the life cycle of therapeutic products: overall perspective and role of the pharmacoepidemiologist.

Science.gov (United States)

Radawski, Christine; Morrato, Elaine; Hornbuckle, Kenneth; Bahri, Priya; Smith, Meredith; Juhaeri, Juhaeri; Mol, Peter; Levitan, Bennett; Huang, Han-Yao; Coplan, Paul; Li, Hu

2015-12-01

Optimizing a therapeutic product's benefit-risk profile is an on-going process throughout the product's life cycle. Different, yet related, benefit-risk assessment strategies and frameworks are being developed by various regulatory agencies, industry groups, and stakeholders. This paper summarizes current best practices and discusses the role of the pharmacoepidemiologist in these activities, taking a life-cycle approach to integrated Benefit-Risk Assessment, Communication, and Evaluation (BRACE). A review of the medical and regulatory literature was performed for the following steps involved in therapeutic benefit-risk optimization: benefit-risk evidence generation; data integration and analysis; decision making; regulatory and policy decision making; benefit-risk communication and risk minimization; and evaluation. Feedback from International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology members was solicited on the role of the pharmacoepidemiologist. The case example of natalizumab is provided to illustrate the cyclic nature of the benefit-risk optimization process. No single, globally adopted benefit-risk assessment process exists. The BRACE heuristic offers a way to clarify research needs and to promote best practices in a cyclic and integrated manner and highlight the critical importance of cross-disciplinary input. Its approach focuses on the integration of BRACE activities for risk minimization and optimization of the benefit-risk profile. The activities defined in the BRACE heuristic contribute to the optimization of the benefit-risk profile of therapeutic products in the clinical world at both the patient and population health level. With interdisciplinary collaboration, pharmacoepidemiologists are well suited for bringing in methodology expertise, relevant research, and public health perspectives into the BRACE process. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2011-03-01

This report describes the geologic and hydrologic conditions and evaluates potential health risks to workers in the natural gas industry in the vicinity of the Gasbuggy, New Mexico, site, where the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission detonated an underground nuclear device in 1967. The 29-kiloton detonation took place 4,240 feet below ground surface and was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico, on land administered by Carson National Forest. A site-specific conceptual model was developed based on current understanding of the hydrologic and geologic environment. This conceptual model was used for establishing plausible contaminant exposure scenarios, which were then evaluated for human health risk potential. The most mobile and, therefore, the most probable contaminant that could result in human exposure is tritium. Natural gas production wells were identified as having the greatest potential for bringing detonation-derived contaminants (tritium) to the ground surface in the form of tritiated produced water. Three exposure scenarios addressing potential contamination from gas wells were considered in the risk evaluation: a gas well worker during gas-well-drilling operations, a gas well worker performing routine maintenance, and a residential exposure. The residential exposure scenario was evaluated only for comparison; permanent residences on national forest lands at the Gasbuggy site are prohibited
Risk of energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inhaber, Herbert.

1978-03-01

Every human activity involves risk of accident or disease. Generation of energy is no exception. Although such risk has been considered for conventional systems (coal, oil and nuclear), a similar analysis for the so-called alternative or non-conventional systems (solar, wind, ocean thermal and methanol) has been lacking. This paper presents an evaluation of the risk, both occupational and to the public, of non-conventional energy systems. They are considered both in absolute terms and in relation to conventional systems. The risk of most non-conventional systems, per unit of energy output, is comparable to, and in some cases much higher than, the risk from coal and oil. This conclusion holds whether we consider deaths or injuries. Nuclear power and natural gas had the lowest overall risk of the ten technologies considered. Ocean thermal energy ranked third. The surprising result is that the other seven technologies considered were found to be up to 100 times less safe. The total risk is calculated by considering six components: material acquisition and construction, emissions caused by material production, operation and maintenance, energy back-up, energy storage, and transportation. In this way the risk of widely different systems can be fairly assessed. This methodology of 'risk accounting' will not tell us which energy technology to use. However, it can be employed to inform society of the risk inherent in competing energy systems. (author)
Use of sanitizing products: safety practices and risk situations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Aurélia Rocha da Silva

2014-04-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: to evaluate the handling and risk factors for poisoning and/or digestive tract injuries associated with the use of sanitizing products at home. METHODS: interviews were conducted in 419 households from different regions, collecting epidemiological data from residents and risk habits related to the use and storage of cleaning products. RESULTS: sanitizing products considered to be a health risk were found in 98% of the households where the research was conducted, and in 54% of cases, they were stored in places easily accessible to children. Lye was found in 19%, followed by illicit products in 39% of homes. In 13% of households, people produced soap, and in 12% they stored products in non-original containers. The use of illicit products and the manufacture of handmade soap were associated with lower educational level of the household owners and with the regions and socioeconomic classes with lower purchasing power. CONCLUSIONS: risk practices such as inadequate storage, manufacturing, and use of sanitizing products by the population evidence the need for public health policies, including educational measures, as a means of preventing accidents.
A quantitative evaluation of a qualitative risk assessment framework: Examining the assumptions and predictions of the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA)

Science.gov (United States)

2018-01-01

Qualitative risk assessment frameworks, such as the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA), have been developed to rapidly evaluate the risks of fishing to marine populations and prioritize management and research among species. Despite being applied to over 1,000 fish populations, and an ongoing debate about the most appropriate method to convert biological and fishery characteristics into an overall measure of risk, the assumptions and predictive capacity of these approaches have not been evaluated. Several interpretations of the PSA were mapped to a conventional age-structured fisheries dynamics model to evaluate the performance of the approach under a range of assumptions regarding exploitation rates and measures of biological risk. The results demonstrate that the underlying assumptions of these qualitative risk-based approaches are inappropriate, and the expected performance is poor for a wide range of conditions. The information required to score a fishery using a PSA-type approach is comparable to that required to populate an operating model and evaluating the population dynamics within a simulation framework. In addition to providing a more credible characterization of complex system dynamics, the operating model approach is transparent, reproducible and can evaluate alternative management strategies over a range of plausible hypotheses for the system. PMID:29856869
Potential exposures and risks from beryllium-containing products.

Science.gov (United States)

Willis, Henry H; Florig, H Keith

2002-10-01

Beryllium is the strongest of the lightweight metals. Used primarily in military applications prior to the end of the Cold War, beryllium is finding new applications in many commercial products, including computers, telecommunication equipment, and consumer and automotive electronics. The use of beryllium in nondefense consumer applications is of concern because beryllium is toxic. Inhalation of beryllium dust or vapor causes a chronic lung disease in some individuals at concentrations as low as 0.01 microg/m3 in air. As beryllium enters wider commerce, it is prudent to ask what risks this might present to the general public and to workers downstream of the beryllium materials industry. We address this question by evaluating the potential for beryllium exposure from the manufacturing, use, recycle, and disposal of beryllium-containing products. Combining a market study with a qualitative exposure analysis, we determine which beryllium applications and life cycle phases have the largest exposure potential. Our analysis suggests that use and maintenance of the most common types of beryllium-containing products do not result in any obvious exposures of concern, and that maintenance activities result in greater exposures than product use. Product disposal has potential to present significant individual risks, but uncertainties concerning current and future routes of product disposal make it difficult to be definitive. Overall, additional exposure and dose-response data are needed to evaluate both the health significance of many exposure scenarios, and the adequacy of existing regulations to protect workers and the public. Although public exposures to beryllium and public awareness and concern regarding beryllium risks are currently low, beryllium risks have psychometric qualities that may lead to rapidly heightened public concern.
Chemical Risk Evaluation: A Case Study in an Automotive Air Conditioner Production Facility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tengku Hanidza T.I.

2010-01-01

Full Text Available There has been limited knowledge on worker’s exposure to chemicals used in the automotive industries. The purpose of this study is to assess chemical risk and to determine the adequacy of the existing control measures to reduce chemical exposure. A cross sectional survey was conducted in a factory involving installation and servicing of automotive air conditioner units. Qualitative exposure assessment was carried out following the Malaysian Chemical Health Risk Assessment Manual (CHRA. There were 180 employees, 156 workers worked in the production line, which constitutes six work units Tube fin pressed, Brazing, Welding, Final assembly, Piping and Kit II. From the chemical risk evaluation for each work unit, 26 chemical compounds were used. Most of the chemicals were irritants (eye and skin and some were asphyxiants and sensitizers. Based on the work assignment, 93 out of 180 (51.67% of the workers were exposed to chemicals. The highest numbers of workers exposed to chemicals were from the Brazing section (22.22% while the Final Assembly section was the lowest (1.67%. Health survey among the workers showed occurrence of eye irritation, skin irritation, and respiratory irritation, symptoms usually associated with chemical exposure. Using a risk rating matrix, several work process were identified as having ‘significant risk’. For these areas, the workers are at risk of adverse health effects since chemical exposure is not adequately controlled. This study recommends corrective actions be taken in order to control the level of exposure and to provide a safe work environment for workers.
Risk evaluation of medical and industrial radiation devices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, E.D.; Cunningham, R.E.; Rathbun, P.A.

1994-03-01

In 1991, the NRC, Division of Industrial and Medical Nuclear Safety, began a program to evaluate the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in regulating medical devices. This program represents an initial step in an overall plant to evaluate the use of PRA in regulating the use of nuclear by-product materials. The NRC envisioned that the use of risk analysis techniques could assist staff in ensuring that the regulatory approach was standardized, understandable, and effective. Traditional methods of assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing the use of by-product devices. The approaches used in assessing nuclear reactor risks are equipment-oriented. Secondary attention is paid to the human component, for the most part after critical system failure events have been identified. This paper describes the risk methodology developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), initially intended to assess risks associated with the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma stereotactic radiosurgical device. For relatively new medical devices such as the Gamma Knife, the challenge is to perform a risk analysis with very little quantitative data but with an important human factor component. The method described below provides a basic approach for identifying the most likely risk contributors and evaluating their relative importance. The risk analysis approach developed for the Gamma Knife and described in this paper should be applicable to a broader class of devices in which the human interaction with the device is a prominent factor. In this sense, the method could be a prototypical model of nuclear medical or industrial device risk analysis
Hypotheses and fundamental study design characteristics for evaluating potential reduced-risk tobacco products. Part I: Heuristic.

Science.gov (United States)

Murrelle, Lenn; Coggins, Christopher R E; Gennings, Chris; Carchman, Richard A; Carter, Walter H; Davies, Bruce D; Krauss, Marc R; Lee, Peter N; Schleef, Raymond R; Zedler, Barbara K; Heidbreder, Christian

2010-06-01

The risk-reducing effect of a potential reduced-risk tobacco product (PRRP) can be investigated conceptually in a long-term, prospective study of disease risks among cigarette smokers who switch to a PRRP and in appropriate comparison groups. Our objective was to provide guidance for establishing the fundamental design characteristics of a study intended to (1) determine if switching to a PRRP reduces the risk of lung cancer (LC) compared with continued cigarette smoking, and (2) compare, using a non-inferiority approach, the reduction in LC risk among smokers who switched to a PRRP to the reduction in risk among smokers who quit smoking entirely. Using standard statistical methods applied to published data on LC incidence after smoking cessation, we show that the sample size and duration required for a study designed to evaluate the potential for LC risk reduction for an already marketed PRRP, compared with continued smoking, varies depending on the LC risk-reducing effectiveness of the PRRP, from a 5-year study with 8000-30,000 subjects to a 15-year study with <5000 to 10,000 subjects. To assess non-inferiority to quitting, the required sample size tends to be about 10 times greater, again depending on the effectiveness of the PRRP. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Sensory Evaluation of the Selected Coffee Products Using Fuzzy Approach

OpenAIRE

M.A. Lazim; M. Suriani

2009-01-01

Knowing consumers' preferences and perceptions of the sensory evaluation of drink products are very significant to manufacturers and retailers alike. With no appropriate sensory analysis, there is a high risk of market disappointment. This paper aims to rank the selected coffee products and also to determine the best of quality attribute through sensory evaluation using fuzzy decision making model. Three products of coffee drinks were used for sensory evaluation. Data wer...
Construction of a risk assessment system for chemical residues in agricultural products.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Shinai; Hong, Jiyeon; Lee, Dayeon; Paik, Minkyoung

2014-01-01

Continuous monitoring of chemical residues in agricultural and food products has been performed by various government bodies in South Korea. These bodies have made attempts to systematically manage this information by creating a monitoring database system as well as a system based on these data with which to assess the health risk of chemical residues in agricultural products. Meanwhile, a database system is being constructed consisting of information about monitoring and, following this, a demand for convenience has led to the need for an evaluation tool to be constructed with the data processing system. Also, in order to create a systematic and effective tool for the risk assessment of chemical residues in foods and agricultural products, various evaluation models are being developed, both domestically and abroad. Overseas, systems such as Dietary Exposure Evaluation Model: Food Commodity Intake Database and Cumulative and Aggregate Risk Evaluation System are being used; these use the US Environmental Protection Agency as a focus, while the EU has developed Pesticide Residue Intake Model for assessments of pesticide exposure through food intake. Following this, the National Academy of Agricultural Science (NAAS) created the Agricultural Products Risk Assessment System (APRAS) which supports the use and storage of monitoring information and risk assessments. APRAS efficiently manages the monitoring data produced by NAAS and creates an extraction feature included in the database system. Also, the database system in APRAS consists of a monitoring database system held by the NAAS and food consumption database system. Food consumption data is based on Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. This system is aimed at exposure and risk assessments for chemical residues in agricultural products with regards to different exposure scenarios.
Prepayment risk, impact on credit products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan Costin NIŢESCU

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Credit pricing is always an important aspect of operations of banks, as loans are generally two thirds of bank assets. Therefore, the study of factors influencing a bank customer behavior and their impact on early repayment of loans may have a significant influence in reducing the risk assumed by such unexpected operations.Objective analysis of prepayment risk is to estimate the probability of repayment to better manage its manifestation. The existence of potential customers that use this option exposes the bank to a number of risks, such as interest rate risk, the maturity mismatch risk and liquidity risk.Proper evaluation and forecasting the evolution of this risk can bring great benefits for a credit institution in the management of loan products and customer relationship: lower risk of over-ensure against fixed rate mortgage, a better management of short-term and long term liquidity needs (thus reducing the risk of over-financing can offer customers more competitive pricing (achieved by reducing funding costs due to better assessment and management of risks involved early repayment.

Excipient Usage Technical Risk Assessment for Generic Solid Dose Products

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Ajay Babu Pazhayattil

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes an assessment methodology for solid dose generic small molecule drug products. It addresses the ‘usage of the excipient’ portion of the trinomial by utilizing the systematic approach of Risk Identification, Risk Analysis and Risk Evaluation as per ICH Q9 Quality Risk Management outlined for developing risk control strategies. The assessment and maintenance of excipient risk profile is essential to minimize any potential risk associated to excipients impacting patients.
Risks of Leveraged Products

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A. Di Cesare (Antonio)

2012-01-01

textabstractLeveraged investments have become a fundamental feature of modern economies. The new financial products allow people to take greater-than-usual exposures to risk factors. This thesis analyzes several different aspects of the risks involved by some frequently used leveraged products:
[Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

2011-10-01

The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.
Respiratory risks in broiler production workers

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M do CB de Alencar

2004-03-01

Full Text Available There are many situations that involve health risks to the Brazilian rural worker, and animal production is just one of them. Inhalation of organic dust, which has many microorganisms, leads in general to respiratory allergic reactions in some individuals, "asthma-like syndrome", and mucous membrane inflammation syndrome, that is a complex of nasal, eye, and throat complaints. Furthermore, workers might have farmer's hypersensitivity pneumonia, that is a respiratory health risk along the years. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential pulmonary health risks in poultry production workers in the region of Curitiba, PR, Brazil. Interviews using a pre-elaborated questionnaire with 40 questions were made with 37 broiler production workers, which were submitted to a pulmonary function test. Results of restrictive function with lower FEV1 (the maximum respiratory potential, the forced expiratory volume in the first second of exhalation and FVC (forced vital capacity represented 24.32% of the total of workers, and severe obstruction represented 2.70%. Other symptoms were found in 67.57% of the workers as well. The results showed that those who work more than 4 years and within more than one poultry house, exceeding 5 hours per day of work, presented higher pulmonary health risks. It is concluded that the activities within broiler houses may induce allergic respiratory reaction in workers. The use of IPE (individual protection equipment besides special attention to the air quality inside the housing may be advised in a preventive way.
Evaluation of isotope utilizations in consumer products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sato, Otomaru

1980-01-01

Consumer products are generally divided into three groups, according to the state of radioactive material or radiation used. First, there are those intentionally added with radioactive materials, such as self-luminous paints and ionization type smoke detectors, utilizing the ionization and excitation by radiation. Second, there are those utilizing natural radioactive materials like glaze. Third, there are those materials containing intrinsically natural radioactive materials. In the first group, the safety evaluation of self-luminous watches and clocks and the risk-benefit evaluation of ionization type smoke detectors are described, and the approval standards for the consumer products and the R/B evaluation method are explained. There are variety of consumer products utilizing radiation, by the exposure dose caused by them is extremely insignificant, far lower than that due to natural radiation. (J.P.N.)
Use of product databases for risk assessment purposes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heinemeyer, Gerhard; Hahn, Axel

2005-01-01

Product information databases are important prerequisites for providing data to poison centers (PC) to give adequate advice in cases of poisonings and for preparation of statistics as annual reports. For risk assessment measures, they can help for exposure assessments and for priority setting. A product database is a set of information of product and substance names, compositions, and uses of products. Data are provided due to national regulations as well as to national and international agreements between industry, international associations, e.g. the European Association of Poison Centres and Clinical Toxicologists (EAPCCT), and clinical toxicology institutions. They have different contents, i.e. complete formulations, frame formulations, and material safety data sheets. For definite identification of products, the product name should be readily taken from the labels and must be similar to the names provided by electronic media as databases. Products should be classified according to their use. The first system that has been prepared for that purpose is the ATC classification for pharmaceuticals. For chemicals, several systems e.g. the WHO-IPCS classification code, exist; the EU technical guidance document for risk assessment of chemicals is mentioning use categories, and they are used on national levels as well. For risk assessment purposes, statistics of poisonings and other health hazards are important as well as information about exposure. Linking cases of poisonings with product data enables risk assessors to perform statistical evaluations about health effects due to product use categories which can be compared to product compositions. If products are categorized by their use, information about use characteristics, such as frequencies and durations, can be derived. Hence, product categories can be taken to characterize scenarios and thus help for model estimations of exposure and respective doses
Panel data nonparametric estimation of production risk and risk preferences

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

approaches for obtaining firm-specific measures of risk attitudes. We found that Polish dairy farmers are risk averse regarding production risk and price uncertainty. According to our results, Polish dairy farmers perceive the production risk as being more significant than the risk related to output price......We apply nonparametric panel data kernel regression to investigate production risk, out-put price uncertainty, and risk attitudes of Polish dairy farms based on a firm-level unbalanced panel data set that covers the period 2004–2010. We compare different model specifications and different...
Fish product quality evaluation based on temperature monitoring in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

As one kind of perishable food, fish product is at risk of suffering various damages during cold chain and temperature is the most important factor to affect the product quality. This research work on frozen tilapia fillet was aimed at evaluating the fish product quality and predict shelf-life through monitoring temperature change ...
LISTERIA MONOCYTOGENES RISK EVALUATION IN READY TO EAT DELI PRODUCTS

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T Civera

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Listeria monocytogenes has become one of the major concerns for food safety. Its ability to survive and replicate at low temperature, pH and high salt concentration, makes the bacterium a threat, mostly for RTE products. For these reasons, the present research was aimed at detecting the ability of growth of L. monocytogenes in RTE products retrieved from one deli store. Samples were analysed for L. monocytogenes detection, then inoculated with the pathogen (105cell/ml and stored at refrigeration temperature for the duration of their shelf-life (15-60 days. In all the products L. monocytogenes was not detected before experimental contamination. The challenge test evidenced that experimentally inoculated L. monocytogenes was not able to multiply for the duration of the entire shelf-life. These results indicated that the tested products could be considered as foods which are not able to support the growth of L. monocytogenes, as indicated by E.C. Regulation 2073/05. However, in order to guarantee consumer’s safety, it needs to be emphasized the need of a correct application of the GMPs, required for lowering the risk of initial contamination.
The health risk of the agricultural production in potentially contaminated sites: an environmental-health risk analysis

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Giovanni Russo

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Rural areas are often interested by pollution phenomena generated by agricultural activities with a high use of pesticides and/or by anthropic activities, such as industrial plants or illegal waste disposal sites, which may cause even long-range contamination. The risk for human health from the pollutants present in the environment can be quantitatively evaluated by the environmental health risk analysis set out in the Italian Legislative Decree no. 152/2006 (Italian Regulation, 2006. This analysis is the best technical-normative tool to estimate the health risks linked to the pollutants present in the environment but it does not consider the specificity of agricultural soils or the contamination of agricultural products. This study aims to provide this missing technical-normative data by identifying and applying a suitable methodology to evaluate the health risk caused by the ingestion of agricultural products grown in contaminated soils. The risk analysis was applied to two contaminated areas in southern Italy using an innovative methodology based on widely accepted parameters for the determination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs soil-plant bio-transfer factor in the case of horticultural crops. In addition, some concentration limits of PAHs in agricultural soils are proposed that may be of help to the competent authorities (health agencies, local authorities in delineating the areas requiring strict health surveillance of the food products cultivated.
RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH INVESTMENTS IN STRUCTURED INVESTMENT PRODUCTS, SELECTION CRITERIA OF SIP`S

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Ignatyuk Aleksandr Sergeevich

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose To identify and classify the major risks affecting on the structured investment products, to submit proposals to limit their impact. Methodology The work is based on a studying of the practice of investments in structured investment products, detection and investigation of sources of market risk of structured investment products. Results Structured investment products, as any other investment product, has a significant set of risks that could affect to a large extent on its evaluation and determine the behavior of the investor. Financial engineers have the ability to control most of these risks, as well as to limit their impact. Thus, the structured investment product, unlike most classic investment instruments can provide investors with highly transparent mechanism to determining the ratio of investment risk and potential income. Practical implications The results can be used in a scientific investigation of the phenomenon of structured investment products, as well as practical work on the formation of the structured products by investment banks and brokerage firms.
A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of risk-based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ranta, Jukka; Lindqvist, Roland; Hansson, Ingrid

2015-01-01

Shifting from traditional hazard-based food safety management toward risk-based management requires statistical methods for evaluating intermediate targets in food production, such as microbiological criteria (MC), in terms of their effects on human risk of illness. A fully risk-based evaluation...... of MC involves several uncertainties that are related to both the underlying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) model and the production-specific sample data on the prevalence and concentrations of microbes in production batches. We used Bayesian modeling for statistical inference...
Nanoparticle risk management and cost evaluation: a general framework

Science.gov (United States)

Fleury, Dominique; Bomfim, João A. S.; Metz, Sébastien; Bouillard, Jacques X.; Brignon, Jean-Marc

2011-07-01

Industrial production of nano-objects has been growing fast during the last decade and a wide range of products containing nanoparticles (NPs) is proposed to the public in various markets (automotive, electronics, textiles...). The issues encountered in monitoring the presence of nano-objects in any media cause a major difficulty for controlling the risk associated to the production stage. It is therefore very difficult to assess the efficiency of prevention and mitigation solutions, which potentially leads to overestimate the level of the protection barriers that are recommended. The extra costs in adding nano-objects to the process, especially that of nanosafety, must be estimated and optimized to ensure the competitiveness of the future production lines and associated products. The risk management and cost evaluation methods presented herein have been designed for application in a pilot production line of injection-moulded nanocomposites.
Nanoparticle risk management and cost evaluation: a general framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleury, Dominique; Metz, Sebastien; Bouillard, Jacques X; Brignon, Jean-Marc; Bomfim, Joao A S

2011-01-01

Industrial production of nano-objects has been growing fast during the last decade and a wide range of products containing nanoparticles (NPs) is proposed to the public in various markets (automotive, electronics, textiles...). The issues encountered in monitoring the presence of nano-objects in any media cause a major difficulty for controlling the risk associated to the production stage. It is therefore very difficult to assess the efficiency of prevention and mitigation solutions, which potentially leads to overestimate the level of the protection barriers that are recommended. The extra costs in adding nano-objects to the process, especially that of nanosafety, must be estimated and optimized to ensure the competitiveness of the future production lines and associated products. The risk management and cost evaluation methods presented herein have been designed for application in a pilot production line of injection-moulded nanocomposites.
Evaluation of Risk Versus Benefit Information in Direct-To-Consumer (DTC) Prescription Drug Television Advertisements.

Science.gov (United States)

Fahim, Germin; Toscani, Michael; Barone, Joseph A; Wang, Chris; Gandhi, Shivani

2018-01-01

The FDA's Presenting Risk Information draft guidance from May 2009 states that the time of risk versus benefit is a factor taken into consideration when evaluating audio and video direct-to-consumer (DTC) broadcasts. The objective of the study is to evaluate the proportion of risk narration on television (TV) advertisements in comparison to the actual proportion of serious adverse effects findings across select therapeutic areas. The study reviews prescription drug TV advertisements between the years 2010 and 2015 separated by therapeutic class. Indicators to assess risk versus benefit are as follows: total benefit time, total risk time, total ad time, percentage proportion of risk, and number of serious adverse effects (SAEs) listed in the package insert. The objective is establishing proportion of risk-to-benefit narration across therapeutic areas and the proportion of risk narration compared to the number of SAEs in the package insert. These outcomes will reflect whether TV advertisements abide by the "fair balance" rule and if the time spent on risk narrations is proportional to the number of SAEs across therapeutic areas. An analysis of risk versus benefit showed that there was a vast range of percentage differences in risk versus benefit narration across the products selected. The majority of the products narrated showed a 40% to 60% risk-to-benefit ratio. Six out of the 10 products evaluated communicated applicable black box warnings. There was variability among the SAE percentages presented between products. Lack of consistency exists between risks versus benefit proportions among different drug products.
Quantitative Estimation of Risks for Production Unit Based on OSHMS and Process Resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Nyambayar, D.; Koshijima, I.; Eguchi, H.

2017-06-01

Three principal elements in the production field of chemical/petrochemical industry are (i) Production Units, (ii) Production Plant Personnel and (iii) Production Support System (computer system introduced for improving productivity). Each principal element has production process resilience, i.e. a capability to restrain disruptive signals occurred in and out of the production field. In each principal element, risk assessment is indispensable for the production field. In a production facility, the occupational safety and health management system (Hereafter, referred to as OSHMS) has been introduced to reduce a risk of accidents and troubles that may occur during production. In OSHMS, a risk assessment is specified to reduce a potential risk in the production facility such as a factory, and PDCA activities are required for a continual improvement of safety production environments. However, there is no clear statement to adopt the OSHMS standard into the production field. This study introduces a metric to estimate the resilience of the production field by using the resilience generated by the production plant personnel and the result of the risk assessment in the production field. A method for evaluating how OSHMS functions are systematically installed in the production field is also discussed based on the resilience of the three principal elements.
Risk management in product innovation projects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Halman, J.I.M.; Keizer, J.A.

1993-01-01

In product innovation projects risk management has become increasingly important. Technological and commercial developments ask for effective and efficient product innovation. Systematic diagnosing and management of risks can help to make product innovation projects successful. In this paper a
Bioassays for risk assessment of coal conversion products

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schacht, S.; Sinder, C.; Pfeifer, F.; Klein, J. [DMT-Gesellschaft fuer Forschung und Pruefung mbH, Essen (Germany)

1999-07-01

Traditional as well as biotechnological processing coal leads to complex mixtures of products. Besides chemical and physical characterization, which provides the information for product application, there is a need for bioassays to monitor properties that are probably toxic, mutagenic or cancerogenic. Investigations carried out focused on the selection, adaptation and validation of bioassays for the sensitive estimation of toxic effects. Organisms like bacteria, Daphnia magna and Scenedesmus subspicatus, representing different complexities in the biosphere, were selected as test systems for ecotoxicological and mutagenicity studies. The results obtained indicate that bioassays are, in principle, suitable tools for characterization and evaluation of coal-derived substances and bioconversion products. Using coal products, coal-relevant model compounds and bioconversion products, data for risk assessment are presented. (orig.)
Hazard assessment and risk management of offshore production chemicals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schobben, H.P.M.; Scholten, M.C.T.; Vik, E.A.; Bakke, S.

1994-01-01

There is a clear need for harmonization of the regulations with regard to the use and discharge of drilling and production chemicals in the North Sea. Therefore the CHARM (Chemical Hazard Assessment and Risk Management) model was developed. Both government (of several countries) and industry (E and P and chemical suppliers) participated in the project. The CHARM model is discussed and accepted by OSPARCON. The CHARM model consists of several modules. The model starts with a prescreening on the basis of hazardous properties like persistency, accumulation potential and the appearance on black lists. The core of the model.consists of modules for hazard assessment and risk analysis. Hazard assessment covers a general environmental evaluation of a chemical on the basis of intrinsic properties of that chemical. Risk analysis covers a more specific evaluation of the environmental impact from the use of a production chemical, or a combination of chemicals, under actual conditions. In the risk management module the user is guided to reduce the total risk of all chemicals used on a platform by the definition of measures in the most cost-effective way. The model calculates the environmental impact for the marine environment. Thereto three parts are distinguished: pelagic, benthic and food chain. Both hazard assessment and risk analysis are based on a proportional comparison of an estimated PEC with an estimated NEC. The PEC is estimated from the use, release, dilution and fate of the chemical and the NEC is estimated from the available toxicity data of the chemicals
Algorithm of actions to identify and reduce risks in the production of milk and plant products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. E. Glagoleva

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Foods with a new generation of functional and improved consumer properties, corresponds to the modern concepts of nutrition science and consumer needs. functional food production is a major global trend in food science and the subject of innovation. One of the important trends is the use of plant complexes and plant food systems. Using the plant complexes (PC and plant food systems (PFS provides a number of benefits: improved consumer properties of the product, do not need to change the process, it is possible to control directional rheological properties and consistency of the finished products, reduced the number of risk points in the production cycle. This paper describes the development of an algorithm of action to identify and mitigate risks in the production of milk and plant products. Also conducted a risk analysis, identified and assessed the risks in the process of production, installed capacity of available resources to reduce the level of risk. Established and submitted to the critical control points in production processes, as well as the critical limits for each critical control points, and the procedure for corrective action in case of violations of the past. During the study, measured changes in the quantitative and qualitative composition of microflora of semi-finished and Quantity of Mesophilic Aerobic and Facultative Anaerobic Microorganisms (QMAFAnM. To determine QMAFAnM samples were taken: 1 – cheesecakes (control, 2 – cheesecakes with RPS. Microbiological studies analyzed frozen-conjugated semi-finished products was determined within 90 days. It is clear from the data that the cottage cheese with semi-finished products have a lower RPM 11.7%. Analyzing the data, it is possible to conclude that the physico-chemical, organoleptic and microbiological indicators of products was developed to set standards on cheese semi-finished products. multilevel structure that characterizes the quality indicators has been developed and is

Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Qualitative risk evaluation for the retired Hanford Site facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

1993-09-01

This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km 2 (570-mi 2 ) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation
Analyzing Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk for Complex Product Systems R&D Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhe Xu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The vast majority of the research efforts in project risk management tend to assess cost risk and schedule risk independently. However, project cost and time are related in reality and the relationship between them should be analyzed directly. We propose an integrated cost and schedule risk assessment model for complex product systems R&D projects. Graphical evaluation review technique (GERT, Monte Carlo simulation, and probability distribution theory are utilized to establish the model. In addition, statistical analysis and regression analysis techniques are employed to analyze simulation outputs. Finally, a complex product systems R&D project as an example is modeled by the proposed approach and the simulation outputs are analyzed to illustrate the effectiveness of the risk assessment model. It seems that integrating cost and schedule risk assessment can provide more reliable risk estimation results.
Risk Mapping of Bogie S2HD-9C Production Process that Take Effect on Production Fulfillment at PT. Barata Indonesia (Persero

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Faza Yoshio Susanto

2017-01-01

Full Text Available PT Barata Indonesia (Persero is one of leading metal works company in Indonesia. It has 3 main business line which are engineering procurement and construction (EPC, industrial tools manufacturing, and foundry. As the company’s strategic objective in delivering quality product and service to the customer, PT Barata Indonesia should maintain their production process properly. One of the featured product of PT Barata Indonesia is bogie. The production process of bogie shows a fluctuative delivery fulfillment. It can be proved by the contract amendment information. Risk management can be used as the method to manage risk inside the production process of bogie. Therefore, this research is aimed to identify risks that may occur from each activities of bogie S2HD-9C’s production process. The risk identification is done by using fault tree analysis method in order to determine the root cause of each activity performed. The risk evaluation is done by using FMEA method which can classify the effects of failure based on the severity and occurrence of failure. Then continue to the risk mapping and risk mitigation determination for bogie S2HD-9C’s production process. Loss that caused by the emergence of risk also determined using value at risk method. Moreover, risk profile dashboard will be provided as the tools in managing risk.
[Health risks from pest control products].

Science.gov (United States)

Pieper, C; Holthenrich, D; Schneider, H

2014-05-01

According to European biocide legislation, pest control products require assessment and authorization by the responsible national or European authorities. Biocidal products can only be authorized if they have no unacceptable effects on human health. The health risk assessment performed for authorization comprises (a) the derivation of reference values for the active substances and substances of concern contained in the biocidal product and (b) an exposure assessment. These parameters are required for risk characterization. No unacceptable health risks are expected if the determined exposure is less than the relevant reference value. In addition, the toxicological information is used for classification of the biocidal product. The assessment may, where necessary, result in specific conditions for use or other restrictions aimed at minimizing risk. The risk to human health from pest control products is mainly based on the toxicological properties of their active substances. Commonly, the coformulants used in pest control products are of less concern than the active substances (e.g., food ingredients and animal feed products). For example, most rodenticides belong to the group of anticoagulants, which are also effective in humans. Regarding intoxications through insecticides, the group of pyrethroids is of particular importance. Fumigants containing metal phosphides, hydrogen cyanide, or sulfuryl difluoride are particularly toxic. This toxicity is linked to the high acute inhalation toxicity of the gaseous active substances themselves or, in the case of phosphides, of the released gas phosphane. The aim of health risk assessment for the authorization of biocidal products is to ensure their safe application for users and all other persons involved, assuming an adequate and label-compliant use.
Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on the mycophenolic acid preparations.

Science.gov (United States)

Rostas, Sara; Kim, Miae; Gabardi, Steven

2014-03-01

To review risks associated with mycophenolic acid (MPA) preparations and evaluate their required risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) elements. Articles were identified through a non-date-limited MEDLINE and EMBASE search using the terms fetal toxicity, teratogenicity, risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, MPA, mycophenolate mofetil, entericcoated MPA, and organ transplant. Information from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the manufacturers of the MPA preparations was also evaluated. The MPA preparations are associated with several potential risks, including gastrointestinal disturbances and myelosuppression; however, their impact on the fetus in pregnant patients taking 1 of these agents poses the greatest risk. The FDA approved REMS programs for all MPA products, both innovator and generic preparations, in September 2012. With evidence of increased risk of miscarriage and birth defects associated with MPA use, the FDA instituted a REMS program that contains both a medication guide and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). The medication guides for the MPA products, which were previously FDA approved, should continue to be distributed to patients who get either an initial prescription filled or a refill. The ETASU requires prescribers to complete training and obtain patient signatures on the Patient-Prescriber Acknowledgment Form. A single, national, voluntary pregnancy registry specific to this medication has been established, and pregnant patients should be encouraged to participate. Although the impact of the MPA REMS on clinical practice is not clear, it is a step toward increasing the understanding of fetal risks with MPA.
The radiological risks associated with the thorium fuelled HTGR fuel cycle. A comparative risk evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dodd, D.H.; Hienen, J.F.A. van.

1995-10-01

This report presents the results of task B.3 of the 'Technology Assessment of the High Temperature Reactor' project. The objective of task B.3 was to evaluate the radiological risks to the general public associated with the sustainable HTGR cycle. Since the technologies to be used at several stages of this fuel cycle are still in the design phase and since a detailed specification of this fuel cycle has not yet been developed, the emphasis was on obtaining a global impression of the risk associated with a generic thorium-based HTGR fuel cycle. This impression was obtained by performing a comparative risk analysis on the basis of data given in the literature. As reference for the comparison a generic uranium fuelled LWR cycle was used. The major benefit with respect to the radiological rsiks of basing the fuel cycle around modular HTGR technology instead of the LWR technology is the increase in reactor safety. The design of the modular HTGR is expected to prevent the release of a significant amount of radioactive material to the environment, and hence early deaths in the surrounding population, during accident conditions. This implies that there is no group risk as defined in the Dutch risk management policy. The major benefit of thorium based fuel cycles over uranium based fuel cycles is the reduction in the radiological risks from unraium mining and milling. The other stages of the nuclear fuel cycle which make a significant contribution to the radiological risks are electricity generation, reprocessing and final disposal. The risks associated with the electricity generation stage are dominated by the risks from fission products, activated corrosion products and the activation products tritium and carbon-14. The risks associated with the reprocessing stage are determined by fission and activation products (including actinides). (orig./WL)
The radiological risks associated with the thorium fuelled HTGR fuel cycle. A comparative risk evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dodd, D.H.; Hienen, J.F.A. van

1995-10-01

This report presents the results of task B.3 of the `Technology Assessment of the High Temperature Reactor` project. The objective of task B.3 was to evaluate the radiological risks to the general public associated with the sustainable HTGR cycle. Since the technologies to be used at several stages of this fuel cycle are still in the design phase and since a detailed specification of this fuel cycle has not yet been developed, the emphasis was on obtaining a global impression of the risk associated with a generic thorium-based HTGR fuel cycle. This impression was obtained by performing a comparative risk analysis on the basis of data given in the literature. As reference for the comparison a generic uranium fuelled LWR cycle was used. The major benefit with respect to the radiological rsiks of basing the fuel cycle around modular HTGR technology instead of the LWR technology is the increase in reactor safety. The design of the modular HTGR is expected to prevent the release of a significant amount of radioactive material to the environment, and hence early deaths in the surrounding population, during accident conditions. This implies that there is no group risk as defined in the Dutch risk management policy. The major benefit of thorium based fuel cycles over uranium based fuel cycles is the reduction in the radiological risks from unraium mining and milling. The other stages of the nuclear fuel cycle which make a significant contribution to the radiological risks are electricity generation, reprocessing and final disposal. The risks associated with the electricity generation stage are dominated by the risks from fission products, activated corrosion products and the activation products tritium and carbon-14. The risks associated with the reprocessing stage are determined by fission and activation products (including actinides). (orig./WL).
Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

1996-01-01

As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment
A risk assessment approach to evaluating food safety based on product surveillance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Notermans, S.; Nauta, M.J.; Jansen, J.; Jouve, J.L.; Mead, G.C.

1998-01-01

This paper outlines a risk assessment approach to food safety evaluation, which is based on testing a particular type of food, or group of similar foods, for relevant microbial pathogens. The results obtained are related to possible adverse effects on the health of consumers. The paper also gives an
Diagnosing risks in product-innovation projects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Halman, Johannes I.M.; Keizer, J.A.

A new method of diagnosing risks in product-innovation projects is introduced in the paper. The method is an improvement on existing risk methods used on product-innovation projects, such as potential problem analysis and failure mode and effects analysis. Technological, organizational and
Diagnosing risks in product-innovation projects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Halman, J.I.M.; Keizer, J.A.

1994-01-01

A new method of diagnosing risks in product-innovation projects is introduced in the paper. The method is an improvement on existing risk methods used on product-innovation projects, such as potential problem analysis and failure mode and effects analysis. Technological, organizational and
The risk analysis during production process of an innovative baby carriage with a bike function

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nowiński Emil

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The article presents the risk assesment of damages occurance in production stage of a babycarriage with a bike function. The analysis of risk is done by using the FMEA – Failure Made and Effect Analysis that is used in aviation and automotive industry. This way of innovative product assessment allows to evaluate the risk of defects and indicate the priorities of quality for key parts as well as the device.
Risk estimation and evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferguson, R A.D.

1982-10-01

Risk assessment involves subjectivity, which makes objective decision making difficult in the nuclear power debate. The author reviews the process and uncertainties of estimating risks as well as the potential for misinterpretation and misuse. Risk data from a variety of aspects cannot be summed because the significance of different risks is not comparable. A method for including political, social, moral, psychological, and economic factors, environmental impacts, catastrophes, and benefits in the evaluation process could involve a broad base of lay and technical consultants, who would explain and argue their evaluation positions. 15 references. (DCK)
Proposal of risk evaluation methodology for hazardous materials transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartman, Luiz Carlos

2009-01-01

The increasing concern with the level of risk associated with the transportation of hazardous materials took some international institutions to pledge efforts in the evaluation of risk in regional level. Following this trend, the objective of this work was to analyze the most recent processes of analysis of risks from road transportation of hazardous materials. In the present work 21 methodologies of analysis of risks, developed by some authors and for diverse localities have been evaluated. Two of them, in special, have been reviewed and discussed: a method recently developed by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (Nicolet-Monnier and Gheorghe, 1996) and the strategy delineated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety CCPS (1995), taking into consideration the estimate of the individual and social risk. Also, the models of Harwood et al. (1990) and of Ramos (1997), adapted by Hartman (2003) have been applied to the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo. The extension of these methodologies was explored, in order to find its advantages and disadvantages. As a study case the present work considered the ammonia transportation throughout two routes evaluating the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo, including a significant parcel of evaluation in a densely populated area, getting the results using risk, at least, one of the methodologies mentioned above. The innovation proposed by this work was the research, the development and the introduction of two variables to the model considered by Harwood et al. (1990). These variables that influence in the value of the risk are: the age of the driver of truck and the zone of impact that is function type of product, period of the day where the transport was carried and the volume that has been transported. The aim of the proposed modifications is to let the value of the risk more sensible in relation to the type of the product carried and the age of the truck driver. The main related procedural stages
Evaluation and Selection of International Supplier, Underscoring Risk Factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

seyed Mohammad Ali Khatami Firouzabadi

2014-05-01

Full Text Available This paper evaluates the decision making process for import complete manufactured pieces versus import of partial pieces to assemble in Iran, taking into account the risk factors for a manufacturing company. Since this sort of decision making confront with several risks, it is necessary to establish a process for finding the risks associated with this kind of problems in order to decrease the effects of these risks in the process. Since the problem is classified as a Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM problem, Uncertain Analytical Hierarchy Process (UAHP was used to find the most attractive alternative. Because the alternatives were identified from the first point, a bottom-up procedure was used to organize the hierarchy. In initial stage, the attributes which distinct from the alternatives were obtained by literature review and experts' interviews. Then the attributes were grouped to upper level to establish the criteria. Three criteria were found from this stage. The criteria were product, partners, and environment which they encompassed 12 attributes. Forming the hierarchy and doing the uncertain pairwised comparisons, which considers a range of numbers instead of one single number for declaring the preference between two factors, a Linear Programming (LP model with two types of objective functions were formed for each individual alternative. Each single LP model can express the maximum and minimum value of each individual alternative. The research's results indicate the most appropriate alternative is to import the final product from India. The last preferred one was to import the parts of the final product from India. This study can be a suitable framework in supply chain management and purchasing decisions and risk evaluations because the major parts of manufacturing activities is always to decide about the selection of most preferred strategies for companies.
Proliferation Risks of Fusion Energy: Clandestine Production, Covert Production, and Breakout

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldston, R.J.; Glaser, A.; Ross, A.F.

2009-01-01

Nuclear proliferation risks from fusion associated with access to weapon-usable material can be divided into three main categories: (1) clandestine production of fissile material in an undeclared facility, (2) covert production of such material in a declared and safeguarded facility, and (3) use of a declared facility in a breakout scenario, in which a state begins production of fissile material without concealing the effort. In this paper we address each of these categories of risk from fusion. For each case, we find that the proliferation risk from fusion systems can be much lower than the equivalent risk from fission systems, if commercial fusion systems are designed to accommodate appropriate safeguards
Comparative evaluation of risks at regional level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aigueperse, J.; Anguenot, F.; Hardy, S.

1990-01-01

In this paper we give the risks for the population of the South-East part of France. The risks are given, in case of chronic intake for energy production (coal and uranium mines, oil refineries, electricity production), for natural and medical irradiation (X-ray radiography-radiotherapy) and for domestic risks (use of chemical products). In case of accidents, the risks are studied in the optic of territorial gestion: transport of dangerous products (natural gas-fuel-chemical products) fires or explosions in chemical manufactories, water pollution by manufactories and agricultural uses [fr
Inter-organizational Collaboration: Product, Knowledge and Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Norbert Jastroch

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Inter-organizational collaboration is no longer entirely a free choice, but is close to a necessity imposed by economic, technical, and knowledge-related concerns. A deep understanding of collaboration will assist in making intelligent decisions on entering, operating, and evaluating collaborative ventures. The nature of the partners—industrial corporations, consultants, academic institutions and others—and the collaborative structure are important, but so too is the nature of the product. We consider its effects in the collaborative domain on knowledge, intellectual property, and catastrophic risk.
Identifying and evaluating E-procurement in supply chain risk by Fuzzy MADM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mostafa Memarzade

2012-08-01

Full Text Available E-procurement risks has emerged as an important issue for researchers and practitioners because mitigating supply chain risk helps improve firms’ as well as supply chains’ performance. E-marketplaces have been steadily growing and there have been significant interest in e-business research. There are different risks and uncertainties involved with E-marketplaces, which jeopardizes the sector but we have had a large amount of hype and the business still continue to grow. The primary aim of this study is to identify E-procurement risks and evaluate them using a fuzzy AHP framework. We contribute E-procurement risk by identifying 13 critical criteria and determine four important ones including the extent of acceptable information, interrelationship risk, lack of honesty in relationships and product quality and safety for evaluating suppliers’ risk.
Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

2013-04-01

The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

Risk management study for the retired Hanford Site facilities: Qualitative risk evaluation for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coles, G.A.; Shultz, M.V.; Taylor, W.E.

1993-09-01

This document provides a risk evaluation of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities on the Hanford Site. Also included are the related data that were compiled by the risk evaluation team during investigations performed on the facilities. Results are the product of a major effort performed in fiscal year 1993 to produce qualitative information that characterizes certain risks associated with these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1,450-km{sup 2} (570-mi{sup 2}) Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30-km (20 mi) southeast of the 200 Area. During walkdown investigations of these facilities, data on real and potential hazards that threatened human health or safety or created potential environmental release issues were identified by the risk evaluation team. Using these findings, the team categorized the identified hazards by facility and evaluated the risk associated with each hazard. The factors contributing to each risk, and the consequence and likelihood of harm associated with each hazard also are included in this evaluation.
Risk mitigation strategies for viral contamination of biotechnology products: consideration of best practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenberg, Amy S; Cherney, Barry; Brorson, Kurt; Clouse, Kathleen; Kozlowski, Steven; Hughes, Patricia; Friedman, Rick

2011-01-01

CONFERENCE PROCEEDING Proceedings of the PDA/FDA Adventitious Viruses in Biologics: Detection and Mitigation Strategies Workshop in Bethesda, MD, USA; December 1-3, 2010 Guest Editors: Arifa Khan (Bethesda, MD), Patricia Hughes (Bethesda, MD) and Michael Wiebe (San Francisco, CA) Viral contamination of biotech product facilities is a potentially devastating manufacturing risk and, unfortunately, is more common than is generally reported or previously appreciated. Although viral contaminants of biotech products are thought to originate principally from biological raw materials, all potential process risks merit evaluation. Limitations to existing methods for virus detection are becoming evident as emerging viruses have contaminated facilities and disrupted supplies of critical products. New technologies, such as broad-based polymerase chain reaction screens for multiple virus types, are increasingly becoming available to detect adventitious viral contamination and thus, mitigate risks to biotech products and processes. Further, the industry embrace of quality risk management that promotes improvements in testing stratagems, enhanced viral inactivation methods for raw materials, implementation and standardization of robust viral clearance procedures, and efforts to learn from both epidemiologic screening of raw material sources and from the experience of other manufacturers with regard to this problem will serve to enhance the safety of biotech products available to patients. Based on this evolving landscape, we propose a set of principles for manufacturers of biotech products: Pillars of Risk Mitigation for Viral Contamination of Biotech Products.
An approach to assessing risk in coalbed methane prospect evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vanorsdale, C.R.

1991-01-01

The economic evaluation of drilling prospects requires assessing the degree of risk involved and its impact on reserve estimates. In developed areas, risk can be determined in a fairly straightforward manner. In remote wildcat areas, risk can almost never be adequately identified or quantified. Between these extremes lie complex reservoirs -- reservoirs to heterogeneous that each well drilled could exhibit production characteristics unlike those of its neighbors. This paper illustrates the use of a risk assessment methodology in a case study of Fruitland coal prospects in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico. This approach could be applied to coalbed methane prospects or any unconventional or highly heterogeneous reservoir with appropriate modification. The utility of this approach is made apparent in a graphical analysis that relates reserves, rate of return and payout time for managerial or financial presentation. This graphical technique and the underlying risk assessment were used to aid a conservative management team in evaluating participation in a multi-well coalbed project
Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2011-03-01

The Gasbuggy site is in northern New Mexico in the San Juan Basin, Rio Arriba County (Figure 1-1). The Gasbuggy experiment was designed to evaluate the use of a nuclear detonation to enhance natural gas production from the Pictured Cliffs Formation, a tight, gas-bearing sandstone formation. The 29-kiloton-yield nuclear device was placed in a 17.5-inch wellbore at 4,240 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs), approximately 40 ft below the Pictured Cliffs/Lewis shale contact, in an attempt to force the cavity/chimney formed by the detonation up into the Pictured Cliffs Sandstone. The test was conducted below the southwest quarter of Section 36, Township 29 North, Range 4 West, New Mexico Principal Meridian. The device was detonated on December 10, 1967, creating a 335-ft-high chimney above the detonation point and a cavity 160 ft in diameter. The gas produced from GB-ER (the emplacement and reentry well) during the post-detonation production tests was radioactive and diluted, primarily by carbon dioxide. After 2 years, the energy content of the gas had recovered to 80 percent of the value of gas in conventionally developed wells in the area. There is currently no technology capable of remediating deep underground nuclear detonation cavities and chimneys. Consequently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) must continue to manage the Gasbuggy site to ensure that no inadvertent intrusion into the residual contamination occurs. DOE has complete control over the 1/4 section (160 acres) containing the shot cavity, and no drilling is permitted on that property. However, oil and gas leases are on the surrounding land. Therefore, the most likely route of intrusion and potential exposure would be through contaminated natural gas or contaminated water migrating into a producing natural gas well outside the immediate vicinity of ground zero. The purpose of this report is to describe the current site conditions and evaluate the potential health risks posed by the most plausible
Identification of potentially hazardous human gene products in GMO risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Bergmans, Hans; Logie, Colin; Van Maanen, Kees; Hermsen, Harm; Meredyth, Michelle; Van Der Vlugt, Cécile

2008-01-01

Genetically modified organisms (GMOs), e.g. viral vectors, could threaten the environment if by their release they spread hazardous gene products. Even in contained use, to prevent adverse consequences, viral vectors carrying genes from mammals or humans should be especially scrutinized as to whether gene products that they synthesize could be hazardous in their new context. Examples of such potentially hazardous gene products (PHGPs) are: protein toxins, products of dominant alleles that have a role in hereditary diseases, gene products and sequences involved in genome rearrangements, gene products involved in immunomodulation or with an endocrine function, gene products involved in apoptosis, activated proto-oncogenes. For contained use of a GMO that carries a construct encoding a PHGP, the precautionary principle dictates that safety measures should be applied on a "worst case" basis, until the risks of the specific case have been assessed. The potential hazard of cloned genes can be estimated before empirical data on the actual GMO become available. Preliminary data may be used to focus hazard identification and risk assessment. Both predictive and empirical data may also help to identify what further information is needed to assess the risk of the GMO. A two-step approach, whereby a PHGP is evaluated for its conceptual dangers, then checked by data bank searches, is delineated here.
Risk Of Loss Of Productivity In Workplaces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wafi Assiri

2015-08-01

Full Text Available In every organization there exist some unavoidable cost when running any business. However these costs can be minimized by managing the factors that contribute to increased business cost and finding ways to prevent risks before they occur. This paper examines one of these factors which is loss of productivity in the workplace. The paper examines the risks of loss of productivity what causes these risks and in what ways will the business be affected by them. This paper also present the various ways a business can manage the risks by providing ways on how the business can prepare for any incidents with regards to the risks. And because its impossible to manage anything that you cant measure ways in which productivity can be measured have been addressed. Finally the paper addresses ways in which the business can improve its workplace productivity to achieve the business goals and ensure continuity of the business.
Evaluations and utilizations of risk importances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.; Davis, T.C.

1985-08-01

This report presents approaches for utilizing Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRA's) to determine risk importances. Risk importances are determined for design features, plant operations, and other factors that can affect risk. PRA's can be used to identify the importances of risk contributors or proposed changes to designs or operations. The objective of this report is to serve as a handbook and guide in evaluating and applying risk importances. The utilization of both qualitative risk importances and quantitative risk importances is described in this report. Qualitative risk importances are based on the logic models in the PRA, while quantitative risk importances are based on the quantitative results of the PRA. Both types of importances are among the most robust and meaningful information a PRA can provide. A wide variety of risk importance evaluations are described including evaluations of the importances of design changes, testing, maintenance, degrading environments, and aging. Specific utilizations are described in inspection and in reliability assurance programs, however the general approaches have widespread applicability. The role of personal computers and decision support programs in applying risk importance evaluations is also described
Guidance on a harmonised framework for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of pest risk management options by EFSA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

2010-01-01

The Scientific Panel on Plant Health was requested by EFSA to develop a guidance document on a harmonised framework for risk assessment of organisms harmful to plants and plant products and the identification and evaluation of risk management options. The document provides guiding principles on a...
Evaluation of the sanitary and environmental risks resulting from the Erika sinking and from the coasts cleaning operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cicolella, A.

2000-03-01

This synthesis presents the methodology of the risks evaluation and of the INERIS report, the products analysis, general data on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, the exposure evaluation, the sanitary impact evaluation for the polycyclic organic hydrocarbons and volatile organic compounds and the evaluation of ecological risks. (A.L.B.)
Minimum Risk Pesticide: Definition and Product Confirmation

Science.gov (United States)

Minimum risk pesticides pose little to no risk to human health or the environment and therefore are not subject to regulation under FIFRA. EPA does not do any pre-market review for such products or labels, but violative products are subject to enforcement.
Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

2016-12-01

Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a
[Solar protection products: efficacy and risks].

Science.gov (United States)

Beani, J-C

2012-04-01

Solar protection products (SPP) containing chemical filters and/or mineral filters are extensively used today in photoprotection; however, concerns continue to be voiced about their efficacy and about their possible dangers. A rapid review of photoprotection strategies shows that SPP owe their photoprotective effect to the absence of other photoprotection methods having clearly established efficacy in healthy subjects; in addition, they exhibit real protective efficacy against the majority of harmful effects of solar radiation, provided they have been devised in keeping with the specifications clearly set out in the recommendations of the French Medicines Agency (Afssaps). Such efficacy is dependent on their correct usage, recently reiterated by Afssaps in its recommendations to end-users concerning the good use of solar products: application of adequate quantities of such products, selection of the appropriate photoprotection class based on phototype and conditions of exposure, and regular renewal of applications in the event of prolonged exposure and after bathing or profuse sweating. Solar filters have long been known to cause contact allergic dermatitis, irritative dermatitis and photosensitisation, and a particular risk has appeared with the use of octocrylene. However, debate has centred primarily on the risk of endocrine disturbance potentially induced by chemical filters, certain of which exhibit established transcutaneous penetration. The risk of mimicry of an effect of oestradiol has been raised on the basis of a series of studies, almost all of which were carried out by the same team, and which mainly concerned 4-methylbenzylidene-camphor (4-MBC) following oral absorption in the rat. The risk of this type of effect with SPPs under normal conditions of use seems fairly remote according to the current state of knowledge; in any event, within the context of the "National Fertility Action Plan", Afssaps has been formally requested to analyse the risk
Judging risk behaviour and risk preference: the role of the evaluative connotation of risk terms.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Schie, E.C.M.; van der Pligt, J.; van Baaren, K.

1993-01-01

Two experiments investigated the impact of the evaluative connotation of risk terms on the judgment of risk behavior and on risk preference. Exp 1 focused on the evaluation congruence of the risk terms with a general risk norm and with Ss' individual risk preference, and its effects on the extremity
Television advertisement format and the provision of risk information about prescription drug products.

Science.gov (United States)

Glinert, Lewis H; Schommer, Jon C

2005-06-01

Considerable attention has been afforded to analyzing the content of and assessing consumers' reaction to print direct-to-consumer drug ads, but not so for televised ads. To determine whether advertisements with different risk severity and risk presentation would significantly affect viewers' (1) recall of information contained in the advertisement, (2) evaluation of the advertisement, and (3) perceptions of the advertised product's risks. Data were collected from a sample of 135 first-year pharmacy students at a Midwestern college of pharmacy. After viewing 1 of the 6 advertisements designed for this study, participants were asked to complete a self-administered survey. Chi-square and analysis of variance were used to analyze the data. A 2x3 between subjects design was used to test the effects of 2 levels of risk severity (high- vs low-risk severity) and 3 levels of risk presentation (original ad containing integrated risk message, deintegrated risk message/dual modality using male voice-over, deintegrated risk message/dual modality using female voice-over). Results of analysis of variance procedures revealed that deintegrating risk information by placing it at the end of the advertisement and the use of captions in addition to oral messages (dual modality) (1) improved the recall of general and specific side effect information, (2) led to a perception that the advertisement had greater informational content, (3) resulted in lower Advertisement Distraction, and (4) lessened cognitive and affective aspects of information overload for the advertisement containing the high-risk severity medication. However, this pattern of findings was not found for the low-risk severity medication. Alternative methods for presenting risk information in direct-to-consumer ads affected some aspects of information recall and advertisement evaluation, but were not shown to affect risk perceptions regarding the advertised products.
The association of health risks with on-the-job productivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Burton, Wayne N; Chen, Chin-Yu; Conti, Daniel J; Schultz, Alyssa B; Pransky, Glenn; Edington, Dee W

2005-08-01

Decreased on-the-job productivity represents a large yet poorly characterized indirect cost to employers. We studied the impact of employee health risk factors on self-reported worker productivity (presenteeism). Using a brief version of the Work Limitation Questionnaire incorporated into a Health Risk Appraisal, 28,375 employees of a national company responded to the survey. The association between health risks and work limitation and each of the four domains was examined. Percentage of lost productivity also was estimated. Ten of 12 health risk factors studied were significantly associated with self-reported work limitations. The strength of the associations varied between risks and the four domains of work limitation. Perception-related risk factors such as life dissatisfaction, job dissatisfaction, poor health, and stress showed the greatest association with presenteeism. As the number of self-reported health risk factors increased, so did the percentage of employees reporting work limitations. Each additional risk factor was associated with 2.4% excess productivity reduction. Medium and high-risk individuals were 6.2% and 12.2% less productive than low-risk individuals, respectively. The annual cost of lost productivity in this corporation was estimated at between 99Mdollars and 185Mdollars or between 1392dollars and 2592dollars per employee. Health risk factors represent additional causes of lost productivity.
The possibility of drought risk reduction in corn production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pajić Nemanja

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Weather derivatives are contemporary instruments for insurance risk of drought in agricultural production. Corn production is particularly sensitive to this risk, and the amount of the yield of this crop is in significant correlation with the July-August rainfall amount. Oscillations of production output, caused by the risk of drought, are reflected directly on the fluctuations of the financial result. The application of weather derivatives may decrease the variability of the mentioned economic parameter in corn production. In the investigated example of corn production, simulating the application of the weather option the coefficient of variation of realized financial results decreased by 9.64% compared to the version without the insured risk. At the same time, using the analysed insurance instrument, the risk of achieving a negative financial result is eliminated.
A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Libiao Bai

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Evaluating the sustainability risk level of public–private partnership (PPP projects can reduce project risk incidents and achieve the sustainable development of the organization. However, the existing studies about PPP projects risk management mainly focus on exploring the impact of financial and revenue risks but ignore the sustainability risks, causing the concept of “sustainability” to be missing while evaluating the risk level of PPP projects. To evaluate the sustainability risk level and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on PPP project management, this paper constructs a factor system of sustainability risk of PPP projects based on an extensive literature review and develops a mathematical model based on the methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. In addition, this paper conducts computational experiment based on a questionnaire survey to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model. The results suggest that this model is reasonable for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the sustainability risk of PPP projects, which would not only enrich the theories of project risk management, but also serve as a reference for the public and private sectors for the sustainable planning and development. Keywords: sustainability risk eva
Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on belatacept.

Science.gov (United States)

Sam, Teena; Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

2013-03-01

To review the elements and components of the risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for the costimulation blocker belatacept and associated implications for health care providers working with transplant recipients. The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases (January 1990 to March 2012) were searched by using risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, belatacept, and organ transplant as search terms (individual organs were also searched). Retrieved articles were supplemented with analysis of information obtained from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturer of belatacept. REMS are risk-management strategies implemented to ensure that a product's benefits outweigh its known safety risks. Although belatacept offers a novel strategy in maintenance immunosuppression and was associated with superior renal function compared with cyclosporine in phase 2 and 3 trials, belatacept is also associated with increased risk of posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder and central nervous system infections. The Food and Drug Administration required development of a REMS program as part of belatacept's approval process to ensure safe and appropriate use of the medication and optimization of its risk-benefit profile. Elements of the belatacept REMS include a medication guide that must be dispensed with each infusion and a communication plan. In the management of a complex population of patients, it is essential that those who care for transplant recipients, and patients, recognize the implications of potential and known risks of belatacept. The REMS program aims to facilitate careful selection and education of patients and vigilant monitoring.
Food safety in raw milk production: risk factors associated to bacterial DNA contamination.

Science.gov (United States)

Cerva, Cristine; Bremm, Carolina; Reis, Emily Marques dos; Bezerra, André Vinícius Andrade; Loiko, Márcia Regina; Cruz, Cláudio Estêvão Farias da; Cenci, Alexander; Mayer, Fabiana Quoos

2014-06-01

While human illness from milkborne pathogens may be linked to contamination of the product after pasteurization or improper pasteurization, such diseases are usually associated with consumption of raw milk or its by-products. Molecular biology tools were applied to investigate contamination by Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., some pathogenic strains of Escherichia coli, and Campylobacter jejuni in 548 raw milk samples from 125 dairy farms established in two regions from southern Brazil. Moreover, 15 variables were evaluated for their association with raw milk contamination levels, and the risk factors were determined by multiple regression analysis. Salmonella spp. were more frequently detected, followed by pathogenic E. coli. There was difference in contamination index between the regions, in which risk factors such as temporary cattle confinement, low milk production, low milking machine cleaning frequency, and milk storage area without tile walls were identified. The risk factors were specific to each region studied. Nevertheless, the data can be used to improve milk quality of dairy farms/herds with similar management practices.
"Legal highs" on the net-Evaluation of UK-based Websites, products and product information.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Martin M; Sharma, Akhilesh; Schifano, Fabrizio; Feinmann, Charlotte

2011-03-20

A vast array of substances are marketed as "legal highs" in the UK. These products are mainly marketed online and are packaged and produced to mimic illicit drugs. Little is known about the full range of products available at present and no studies have evaluated the product information provided to consumers. AIMS & HYPOTHESIS: To describe the available legal high products marketed by UK-based Internet retailers and evaluate the product information provided to consumers. Websites were identified using the terms "buy legal highs+UK" and two search engines. The first 100 hits and a random sample of 5% of the remaining results were screened. Websites based in the UK were included and all products were entered on a database. Information on product name, list price, claimed effects, side effects, contraindications and interactions was extracted. A descriptive analysis was conducted using SPSS v14. 115 Websites met the inclusion criteria but due to duplicate listings this was reduced to 39 unique Websites. 1308 products were found and evaluated. The average product price was 9.69 British pounds. Products took the form of pills (46.6%), smoking material (29.7%) and single plant material/extract (18.1%). Most products claimed to be stimulants (41.7%), sedatives (32.3%), or hallucinogens (12.9%). 40.1% of products failed to list ingredients, 91.9% failed to list side effects, 81.9% failed to list contraindications and 86.3% failed to list drug interactions. Top 5 products (with active ingredients in brackets) by frequency were Salvia divinorum (Salivinorin A), Kratom (Mitragynine), Hawaiian Baby Woodrose Seeds (Lysergic Acid Amide), Fly Agaric (Ibotenic Acid, Muscimol) and Genie (JWH018, CP47497). Products marketed as "legal highs" are easily available from UK-based Internet retailers and are reasonably affordable. Safety information provided to consumers is poor. Uninformed users risk serious adverse effects. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benefit-Risk Assessment, Communication, and Evaluation (BRACE) throughout the life cycle of therapeutic products : overall perspective and role of the pharmacoepidemiologist

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Radawski, Christine; Morrato, Elaine; Hornbuckle, Kenneth; Bahri, Priya; Smith, Meredith; Juhaeri, Juhaeri; Mol, Peter; Levitan, Bennett; Huang, Han-Yao; Coplan, Paul; Li, Hu

2015-01-01

Purpose Optimizing a therapeutic product's benefit-risk profile is an on-going process throughout the product's life cycle. Different, yet related, benefit-risk assessment strategies and frameworks are being developed by various regulatory agencies, industry groups, and stakeholders. This paper
Mycophenolate fetal toxicity and risk evaluation and mitigation strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, M; Rostas, S; Gabardi, S

2013-06-01

The mycophenolic acid (MPA) preparations are one of the most commonly used immunosuppressants in the United States. However, these agents carry a black box warning regarding their use during pregnancy due to an association with increased risk of miscarriage and congenital defects. To ensure that the benefits of MPA outweigh the risks, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) required all manufacturers of MPA products to propose risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS). Four years after initially calling for proposals, the FDA approved a single shared REMS system in September 2012. The elements of the MPA REMS include a medication guide and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). The medication guide, which was previously FDA-approved in 2008, should continue to be distributed to patients, and the ETASU requires physicians to complete training and obtain patient signatures on the "Patient-Prescriber Acknowledgement Form." A single, national, voluntary pregnancy registry is available, and pregnant patients should be encouraged to participate. Although the impact of the MPA REMS on clinical practice is not clear, it is a step toward increasing the understanding of fetal risks with MPA products among patients and possibly practitioners. © Copyright 2013 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.
Experimental approaches for evaluating the invasion risk of biofuel crops

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luke Flory, S; Sollenberger, Lynn E; Lorentz, Kimberly A; Gordon, Doria R

2012-01-01

There is growing concern that non-native plants cultivated for bioenergy production might escape and result in harmful invasions in natural areas. Literature-derived assessment tools used to evaluate invasion risk are beneficial for screening, but cannot be used to assess novel cultivars or genotypes. Experimental approaches are needed to help quantify invasion risk but protocols for such tools are lacking. We review current methods for evaluating invasion risk and make recommendations for incremental tests from small-scale experiments to widespread, controlled introductions. First, local experiments should be performed to identify conditions that are favorable for germination, survival, and growth of candidate biofuel crops. Subsequently, experimental introductions in semi-natural areas can be used to assess factors important for establishment and performance such as disturbance, founder population size, and timing of introduction across variable habitats. Finally, to fully characterize invasion risk, experimental introductions should be conducted across the expected geographic range of cultivation over multiple years. Any field-based testing should be accompanied by safeguards and monitoring for early detection of spread. Despite the costs of conducting experimental tests of invasion risk, empirical screening will greatly improve our ability to determine if the benefits of a proposed biofuel species outweigh the projected risks of invasions. (letter)
Product Evaluation Task Force Phase Two report for CAGR graphite

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Francis, A.J.; Davies, A.

1991-01-01

It has been proposed that all Intermediate Level Wastes arising at Sellafield should be encapsulated prior to ultimate disposal. The Product Evaluation Task Force (PETF) was set up to investigate possible encapsulants and to produce an adequate data base to justify the preferred matrices. This report details the work carried out under Phase 2 of the Product Evaluation Task Force programme, on CAGR graphite. Three possible types of encapsulants for CAGR graphites:-Inorganic cements, Polymer cements and Polymers are evaluated using the Kepner Tregoe decision analysis technique. This technique provides a methodology for scoring and ranking alternative options and evaluating any risks associated with an option. The analysis shows that for all four stages of waste management operations ie Storage, Transport, handling and emplacement, Disposal and Process, cement matrices are considerably superior to other potential matrices. A matrix, consisting of three parts Blast Furnace Slag (BFS) to one part Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) is recommended as the preferred matrix for Phase 3 studies on CAGR graphite. (author)
Managing multiple facets of risk in new product alliances

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lee, R.P.; Johnson, J.L.

2010-01-01

The trend of forming alliances to develop new products continues; however, many of these new product alliances fail. As such we explore how key risk types intrinsic in new product alliances, performance, relational, and knowledge appropriation risks, influence alliance success. Further, we theorize
STEREOTYPES IN CONSUMERS’ PRODUCT EVALUATION BASED ON THE COUNTRY-OF-ORIGIN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roxana-Denisa G. STOENESCU

2014-11-01

Full Text Available This paper focuses on the concept of country-of-origin and its effects on consumers’ product evaluation process. Given the increasingly competition in the context of a global market, nowadays it has become a difficult task to create and maintain a sustainable competitive advantage. Consumers rely on many elements in evaluating a certain product, but country-of-origin remains a powerful variable in terms of product image and perception. The purpose of this study is to examine both the advantages and risks involved in consumers’ evaluation process, linking the concept of country-of-origin with certain stereotypes created around it. The study is based on exploratory research, through the investigation of secondary data as a collection method. As results, research showed that a positive country image can compensate in terms of perception for a weak brand, suggesting that a predetermined opinion can substitute a quality searched for in buying a product. The article concludes with a discussion of directions and limits, as an impulsion for future investigation.
Guidelines for Risk-Based Changeover of Biopharma Multi-Product Facilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Lynch, Rob; Barabani, David; Bellorado, Kathy; Canisius, Peter; Heathcote, Doug; Johnson, Alan; Wyman, Ned; Parry, Derek Willison

2018-01-01

In multi-product biopharma facilities, the protection from product contamination due to the manufacture of multiple products simultaneously is paramount to assure product quality. To that end, the use of traditional changeover methods (elastomer change-out, full sampling, etc.) have been widely used within the industry and have been accepted by regulatory agencies. However, with the endorsement of Quality Risk Management (1), the use of risk-based approaches may be applied to assess and continuously improve established changeover processes. All processes, including changeover, can be improved with investment (money/resources), parallel activities, equipment design improvements, and standardization. However, processes can also be improved by eliminating waste. For product changeover, waste is any activity not needed for the new process or that does not provide added assurance of the quality of the subsequent product. The application of a risk-based approach to changeover aligns with the principles of Quality Risk Management. Through the use of risk assessments, the appropriate changeover controls can be identified and controlled to assure product quality is maintained. Likewise, the use of risk assessments and risk-based approaches may be used to improve operational efficiency, reduce waste, and permit concurrent manufacturing of products. © PDA, Inc. 2018.
Ethical and affective evaluation of environmental risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohm, G.; Pfister, H.R.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: the present paper will be concerned with environmental risk perception, with special emphasis on those environmental risks that pertain to global change phenomena, such as climate change and ozone depletion. Two determinants of risk judgments are investigated that seem particularly relevant to environmental risks: ethical and affective evaluations. It is assumed that the focus of risk evaluation can be on one of two aspects: a) on an evaluation of potential losses, or b) on ethical considerations. We assume that both, potential loss and violation of ethical principles elicit emotional evaluations, but that these two judgmental aspects are associated with different specific emotions. Following cognitive emotion theories, we distinguish loss-based emotions, such as worry and fear, from ethical emotions, e.g., guilt and anger. A study is presented that investigates the role of ethical and affective evaluations in risk judgments. Various environmental risks were presented to subjects, e.g., air pollution, ozone depletion, climate change and destruction of ecological balance. For each environmental risk, subjects indicated in free-response format as well as on rating scales the extent to which ethical principles were violated, and the intensity of both loss-based and ethical emotions. The correlational structure of the emotion ratings confirms the distinction between loss-based and ethical emotions. Risk judgments co-vary with the strength of ethical evaluation and with the intensity of loss-based emotions, but are independent of ethical emotions. The implications of these findings for the risk appraisal process are discussed. (authors)
Automated systems to identify relevant documents in product risk management

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Product risk management involves critical assessment of the risks and benefits of health products circulating in the market. One of the important sources of safety information is the primary literature, especially for newer products which regulatory authorities have relatively little experience with. Although the primary literature provides vast and diverse information, only a small proportion of which is useful for product risk assessment work. Hence, the aim of this study is to explore the possibility of using text mining to automate the identification of useful articles, which will reduce the time taken for literature search and hence improving work efficiency. In this study, term-frequency inverse document-frequency values were computed for predictors extracted from the titles and abstracts of articles related to three tumour necrosis factors-alpha blockers. A general automated system was developed using only general predictors and was tested for its generalizability using articles related to four other drug classes. Several specific automated systems were developed using both general and specific predictors and training sets of different sizes in order to determine the minimum number of articles required for developing such systems. Results The general automated system had an area under the curve value of 0.731 and was able to rank 34.6% and 46.2% of the total number of 'useful' articles among the first 10% and 20% of the articles presented to the evaluators when tested on the generalizability set. However, its use may be limited by the subjective definition of useful articles. For the specific automated system, it was found that only 20 articles were required to develop a specific automated system with a prediction performance (AUC 0.748) that was better than that of general automated system. Conclusions Specific automated systems can be developed rapidly and avoid problems caused by subjective definition of useful articles. Thus the efficiency of
effectiveness of technological options for minimising production risks

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ACSS

preferred technologies in reducing production risk related to climate variability in Eastern Uganda. Data for this study were ..... Set of technological options employed by farmers to reduce climate-induced production risk. Dummy = 1 if farmer. 0.71. 0.46 ..... cation exchange capacity for holding nutrients against leaching loss.
Evaluation of the carcinogenic risks at the influence of POPs.

Science.gov (United States)

Nazhmetdinova, Aiman; Kassymbayev, Adlet; Chalginbayeva, Altinay

2017-12-20

Kazakhstan is included in the list of environmentally vulnerable countries and Kyzylorda oblast in particular. This is due to its geographical, spatial and temporal and socioeconomic features. As part of the program "Integrated approaches in the management of public health in the Aral region", we have carried out an expertise on many samples of natural environments and products. Samples were selected in accordance with sampling procedures according to regulatory documents by specialists of the Pesticide Toxicology Laboratory. It is accredited by the State Standard of the Republic of Kazakhstan, for compliance with ST RK ISO/IEC 17025-2007 "General requirements for the competence of test and calibration laboratories". Gas chromatograph was used for the determination of residues of organochlorine pesticides. For the determination of dioxins, polychlorinated biphenyl was conducted on the gas chromatomass spectrometer with quadruple detector produce by Agilent Company, USA. To assess the risk, we carried out the mathematical calculations according to the risk of chemicals polluting (No P 2.1.10.1920-04, Russia). Calculation of the carcinogenic risk was carried out with the use of data on the size of the exposure and meanings of carcinogenic potential factors (slope factor and unit risk). The evaluation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), based on the previous results of the research concerning water, soil and food products, was held in five population settlements in Kyzylorda oblast villages: Ayteke bi, Zhalagash, Zhosaly, Shieli and Aralsk town. Pollution with the POPs in the environmental objects by means of exposition and evaluation of the carcinogenic risk to human health is confirmed by the data of the statistical reporting about some morbidity in Kyzylorda oblast, such as skin diseases and subcutaneous tissue, endocrine system diseases, pregnancy complications etc. The received levels of carcinogenic risks, which were first carried out in the Republic of
A risk microbiological profile of the Australian red meat industry: risk ratings of hazard-product pairings.

Science.gov (United States)

Sumner, John; Ross, Tom; Jenson, Ian; Pointon, Andrew

2005-11-25

A risk profile of microbial hazards across the supply continuum for the beef, sheep and goat meat industries was developed using both a qualitative tool and a semi-quantitative, spreadsheet tool, Risk Ranger. The latter is useful for highlighting factors contributing to food safety risk and for ranking the risk of various product/pathogen combinations. In the present profile the qualitative tool was used as a preliminary screen for a wide range of hazard-product pairings while Risk Ranger was used to rank in order of population health risk pairings for which quantitative data were available and for assessing the effect of hypothetical scenarios. 'High' risk hazard-product pairings identified were meals contaminated with Clostridium perfringens provided by caterers which have not implemented HACCP; kebabs cross-contaminated by Salmonella present in drip trays or served undercooked; meals served in the home cross-contaminated with Salmonella. 'Medium' risk hazard-product pairings identified were ready-to-eat meats contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes and which have extended shelf life; Uncooked Comminuted Fermented Meat (UCFM)/Salami contaminated with Enterohaemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) and Salmonella; undercooked hamburgers contaminated with EHEC; kebabs contaminated by Salmonella under normal production or following final "flash" heating. Identified 'low' risk hazard-product pairings included cooked, ready-to-eat sausages contaminated with Salmonella; UCFM/Salami contaminated with L. monocytogenes; well-cooked hamburgers contaminated with EHEC. The risk profile provides information of value to Australia's risk managers in the regulatory, processing and R&D sectors of the meat and meat processing industry for the purposes of identifying food safety risks in the industry and for prioritising risk management actions.
Evaluation of the risks linked with natural refrigerating fluids; Evaluation des risques lies aux fluides frigorigenes naturels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guilpart, J. [Centre National Machiniste Agricole du Genie Rural des Eaux et des Forets, (Cemagref), 35 - Rennes (France). Div. Genie des Procedes Frigorifiques

1999-07-01

Because of their environmental impact, halogenated refrigerants are more and more replaced by `natural` refrigerants in vapor compression cycle refrigerating machineries. However, technological risks exist with these substitution fluids due to their flammability, explosibility or toxicity. Major risks can be encountered at the industrial scale and thanks to experience feedback and to several studies, a rigorous approach was settled and included in the legislative texts relative to classified installations and environment protection. Risks also exist at the scale of refrigerating installations with the use of hydrocarbon and ammonia refrigerants. This paper presents an evaluation of risks both at the industrial and at the installation scale: 1 - definition and approach of industrial risks: scenarios of major industrial accidents (boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE), unconfined vapor cloud explosion (UVCE), toxic gases emission); evaluation of accident effects (thermal, mechanical, noxious); 2 - calculation methods applicable to industrial installations: thermal effects (radiation intensity, exposure duration, mass of flammable product involved in the phenomenon), mechanical effects (TNT equivalent method, rupture of pressurized reservoirs), noxious effects (leaks, atmospheric dispersion); 3 - application to refrigerating installations: case of hydrocarbons (dimensioning scenarios and simplified formulae, admissible scenarios), case of ammonia. (J.S.) 20 refs.
Issues in Value-at-Risk Modeling and Evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper); B.N. Jorgensen (Bjørn); P.F. Christoffersen (Peter); F.X. Diebold (Francis); T. Schuermann (Til); J.A. Lopez (Jose); B. Hirtle (Beverly)

1998-01-01

textabstractDiscusses the issues in value-at-risk modeling and evaluation. Value of value at risk; Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management; Methods of evaluating value-at-risk estimates.
Skin sensitisation quantitative risk assessment (QRA) based on aggregate dermal exposure to methylisothiazolinone in personal care and household cleaning products.

Science.gov (United States)

Ezendam, J; Bokkers, B G H; Bil, W; Delmaar, J E

2018-02-01

Contact allergy to preservatives is an important public health problem. Ideally, new substances should be evaluated for the risk on skin sensitisation before market entry, for example by using a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) as developed for fragrances. As a proof-of-concept, this QRA was applied to the preservative methylisothiazolinone (MI), a common cause of contact allergy. MI is used in different consumer products, including personal care products (PCPs) and household cleaning products (HCPs). Aggregate exposure to MI in PCPs and HCPs was therefore assessed with the Probabilistic Aggregated Consumer Exposure Model (PACEM). Two exposure scenarios were evaluated: scenario 1 calculated aggregate exposure on actual MI product concentrations before the restricted use in PCPs and scenario 2 calculated aggregate exposure using the restrictions for MI in PCPs. The QRA for MI showed that in scenarios 1 and 2, the proportion of the population at risk for skin sensitisation is 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. The restricted use of MI in PCPs does not seem very effective in lowering the risk on skin sensitization. To conclude, it is important to consider aggregate exposure from the most important consumer products into consideration in the risk assessment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Implications of commodity price risk and operating leverage on petroleum project economic evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salahor, G.; Laughton, D.G.

1999-01-01

The modern asset pricing method, MAP, can provide businesses with improved tools for economic analysis. This in turn leads to greater precision in the analysis of the effects of the following parameters: project structure, time, and uncertainty. This greater precision with MAP extends to analysis of the possibility for active control of the decision alternatives for managers in the petroleum business, especially where this possibility is not questioned. A methodology is developed as a model that quantifies revenue risk based on the nature of commodity price volatility and the accepted price of risk in the commodity market. A mathematical description is included of a natural gas log-normal distribution incorporating the annual volatility in the forecast, and a measure of the rate at which volatility decreases in the long run in the forecast. Give this volatility model, a risk discount factor is determinable and applicable to the current expectation of the commodity prices at a given time, and a discount time factor of all parts of the cash flow stream. Cases are used to evaluate a natural gas development project for the purpose of yielding scenarios for capital vs. operating cost trade-offs, price risk management, production profile, and the effect of the reverting vs. non-reverting price model. In application one, a comparison is made of discounted cash flow (DCF) to MAP evaluations giving a perspective on the various development choices which a producer has through third-party service providers. Further, an example is used to compare the two methods as alternative evaluations of development alternatives to speed up or slow down the production rate and decline profile of a gas field. As in the first example, the DCF discounting is higher than the net discounting in the MAP evaluation. But in this example both methods produce the same project structure decision. The small amount of incremental capital and operating costs needed for the higher production case are
Perceived risks in product innovation projects : development of a risk skeleton

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Halman, J.I.M.; Keizer, J.A.; Song, X.M.

1999-01-01

The essence of undertaking a product innovation project is to create or establish something new. Risk taking is an intrinsic part of that process. In today's markets, with heavy competition, advanced technology and tough economic conditions, successful product innovation has become critically
Planning Risk-Based SQC Schedules for Bracketed Operation of Continuous Production Analyzers.

Science.gov (United States)

Westgard, James O; Bayat, Hassan; Westgard, Sten A

2018-02-01

To minimize patient risk, "bracketed" statistical quality control (SQC) is recommended in the new CLSI guidelines for SQC (C24-Ed4). Bracketed SQC requires that a QC event both precedes and follows (brackets) a group of patient samples. In optimizing a QC schedule, the frequency of QC or run size becomes an important planning consideration to maintain quality and also facilitate responsive reporting of results from continuous operation of high production analytic systems. Different plans for optimizing a bracketed SQC schedule were investigated on the basis of Parvin's model for patient risk and CLSI C24-Ed4's recommendations for establishing QC schedules. A Sigma-metric run size nomogram was used to evaluate different QC schedules for processes of different sigma performance. For high Sigma performance, an effective SQC approach is to employ a multistage QC procedure utilizing a "startup" design at the beginning of production and a "monitor" design periodically throughout production. Example QC schedules are illustrated for applications with measurement procedures having 6-σ, 5-σ, and 4-σ performance. Continuous production analyzers that demonstrate high σ performance can be effectively controlled with multistage SQC designs that employ a startup QC event followed by periodic monitoring or bracketing QC events. Such designs can be optimized to minimize the risk of harm to patients. © 2017 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.
Atomic risk insurance. Risk policy, safety production and expertise in Germany and the USA 1945 - 1986

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wehner, Christoph

2017-01-01

The book covers the following chapters: (I) Between threat and promise: Political change and the corporate perception, the burden of the atomic bomb, promise of nuclear energy risk criticism in the pre-ecological phase, nuclear risk as investment restraint; (II) Risk policy at the insurability limit: hazard knowledge, safety production and insurance expertise in the German nuclear policy (1955-1962); (III) Risk policy beyond the catastrophe, insurability interpretation, concepts and conflicts (1957-1968); (IV) Scandalization of risk policy: safety production, confidence and expertise in the nuclear controversial debate (1969 - 1979); (V) Nuclear risk policy and the challenge of the ''risk society'' (1975-1986); (VI) From safety production to hazard probe: atomic energy And the change of insurance.
Evaluation of exposures to petroleum products of the Erika in the depollution zone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blanchard, O.

2000-03-01

The petroleum product of the Erika is a fuel oil type number 2, with many toxic compounds. Thus the risk of the people employed for the depollution must be seriously evaluate. This document presents a study realized at the Croisic. The objective was to identify risk situations, provide an advice on the preventive measures implemented and define, if necessary, a control strategy for the most exposed work station. (A.L.B.)

Therapeutic product disposition in at-risk populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foster, B. C.

2009-01-01

In an emergency situation, such as a chemical, biological, radionuclide, nuclear or explosion (CBRNE) event, all patient populations are at increased risk of serious adverse events. Therapeutic product (TP) safety and efficacy depend on the disposition of the product through absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion. The ability of a patient to benefit from or merely tolerate a TP can be modified by many factors, including but not limited to culture, diet, disease, environmental contaminants, genetic predisposition, stress and socioeconomic status and recent life experiences. Metabolism is considered to have the greatest effect on safety and efficacy, as chemicals not metabolised can accumulate to toxic levels. Inter-individual variances in most drug metabolism enzymes may range up to greater than 1000-fold. The fetus, neonates, infants, individuals with hormonal change, infection or prior exposure to licit or illicit products and the elderly are more susceptible to increased risk of serious adverse health effects. The critically ill are the most at risk. The at-risk populations for a serious adverse event are dependent then on the CBRNE event, their physical and cognitive states and the inter-individual intrinsic and extrinsic factors that affect TP disposition. (authors)
Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES: Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Synthetic Biology Applications.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher L Cummings

Full Text Available Synthetic biology (SB applies engineering principles to biology for the construction of novel biological systems designed for useful purposes. From an oversight perspective, SB products come with significant uncertainty. Yet there is a need to anticipate and prepare for SB applications before deployment. This study develops a Societal Risk Evaluation Scheme (SRES in order to advance methods for anticipatory governance of emerging technologies such as SB. The SRES is based upon societal risk factors that were identified as important through a policy Delphi study. These factors range from those associated with traditional risk assessment, such as health and environmental consequences, to broader features of risk such as those associated with reversibility, manageability, anticipated levels of public concern, and uncertainty. A multi-disciplinary panel with diverse perspectives and affiliations assessed four case studies of SB using the SRES. Rankings of the SRES components are compared within and across the case studies. From these comparisons, we found levels of controllability and familiarity associated with the cases to be important for overall SRES rankings. From a theoretical standpoint, this study illustrates the applicability of the psychometric paradigm to evaluating SB cases. In addition, our paper describes how the SRES can be incorporated into anticipatory governance models as a screening tool to prioritize research, information collection, and dialogue in the face of the limited capacity of governance systems. To our knowledge, this is the first study to elicit data on specific cases of SB with the goal of developing theory and tools for risk governance.
Risk effectiveness evaluation of surveillance testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.; Martorell, S.; Vesely, W.E.

1991-01-01

To address the concerns about nuclear power plant surveillance tests, i.e., their adverse safety impact due to negative effects and too burdensome requirements, it is necessary to evaluate the safety significance or risk effectiveness of such tests explicitly considering both negative and positive effects. This paper defines the negative effects of surveillance testing from a risk perspective, and then presents a methodology to quantify the negative risk impact, i.e., the risk penalty or risk increase caused by the test. The method focuses on two important kinds of negative effects, namely, test-caused transients and test-caused equipment degradations. The concepts and quantitative methods for the risk evaluation can be used in the decision-making process to establish the safety significance of the tests and to screen the plant-specific surveillance test requirements. 6 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs
Assessing the transfer of risk due to transportation of agricultural products.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Pei-Chiun; Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Ma, Hwong-Wen

2015-02-01

Health risk assessment (HRA) is the process used to estimate adverse health effects on humans. The importance and sensitivity of food chains to HRA have been observed, but the impact of the transportation of food has generally been ignored. This study developed an exposure assessment to demonstrate the significance of the transportation of agricultural products in HRA. The associated case study estimated the health risks derived from various sources of arsenic emissions in Taiwan. Two assessment scenarios, self-sufficiency and transportation of agricultural products, were compared to calculate risk transfer ratios that show the impact of agriculture transportation. The risk transfer ratios found by the study range from 0.22 to 42.10, indicating that the quantity of transportation of agricultural products is the critical factor. High air deposition and high agricultural production are the two main contributors to the effect of the transportation of agricultural products on HRA. Risk reduction measures could be applied to high-pollution areas as well as to areas with high agricultural productivity to reduce ingestion risks to residents. Certain areas that are sensitive to the transportation of agricultural products may incur more risks if emissions increase in agriculturally productive counties. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Municipal Treated Wastewater Irrigation: Microbiological Risk Evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Lonigro

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Municipal wastewater for irrigation, though treated, can contain substances and pathogens toxic for humans and animals. Pathogens, although not harmful from an agronomical aspect, undoubtedly represent a major concern with regards to sanitary and hygienic profile. In fact, vegetable crops irrigated with treated wastewater exalt the risk of infection since these products can also be eaten raw, as well as transformed or cooked. Practically, the evaluation of the microbiological risk is important to verify if the microbial limits imposed by law for treated municipal wastewater for irrigation, are valid, thus justifying the treatments costs, or if they are too low and, therefore, they don’ t justify them. Different probabilistic models have been studied to assess the microbiological risk; among these, the Beta-Poisson model resulted the most reliable. Thus, the Dipartimento di Scienze delle Produzioni Vegetali of the University of Bari, which has been carrying out researches on irrigation with municipal filtered wastewater for several years, considered interesting to verify if the microbial limits imposed by the italian law n.185/03 are too severe, estimating the biological risk by the probabilistic Beta-Poisson model. Results of field trials on vegetable crops irrigated by municipal filtered wastewater, processed by the Beta-Poisson model, show that the probability to get infection and/or illness is extremely low, and that the actual italian microbial limits are excessively restrictive.
Assessment of the risks associated with Iodine-125 handling production sources for brachytherapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Souza, Daiane C.B.; Rostelato, Maria Elisa C.; Vicente, Roberto; Zeituni, Carlos A.; Tiezzi, Rodrigo; Costa, Osvaldo L.; Souza, Carla D.; Peleias Junior, Fernando S.; Rodrigues, Bruna T.; Souza, Anderson S.; Batista, Talita Q.; Melo, Emerson R.; Camargo, Anderson R., E-mail: dcsouza@usp.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Karam Junior, Dib, E-mail: dib.karam@usp.br [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2015-07-01

In Brazil, prostate cancer is the second most frequent disease, with an estimated 68,800 new cases in 2013. This type of cancer can be treated with brachytherapy, which uses sealed sources of Iodine-125 implanted permanently in the prostate. These sources are currently imported at a high cost, making public treatment in large scale impractical. To reduce costs and to meet domestic demand, the laboratory for production of brachytherapy sources at the Nuclear and Energy Research Institute (IPEN) is currently nationalizing the production of this radioisotope. Iodine is quite volatile making the handling of its radioactive isotopes potentially dangerous. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the risks to which workers are exposed during the production and handling of the sources. The research method consisted initially of a literature review on the toxicity of iodine, intake limits, related physical risks, handling of accidents, generation of radioactive wastes, etc. The results allowed for establishing safety and radioprotection policies in order to ensure efficient and safe production in all stages and the implementation of good laboratory practices. (author)
Assessment of the risks associated with Iodine-125 handling production sources for brachytherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Souza, Daiane C.B.; Rostelato, Maria Elisa C.; Vicente, Roberto; Zeituni, Carlos A.; Tiezzi, Rodrigo; Costa, Osvaldo L.; Souza, Carla D.; Peleias Junior, Fernando S.; Rodrigues, Bruna T.; Souza, Anderson S.; Batista, Talita Q.; Melo, Emerson R.; Camargo, Anderson R.; Karam Junior, Dib

2015-01-01

In Brazil, prostate cancer is the second most frequent disease, with an estimated 68,800 new cases in 2013. This type of cancer can be treated with brachytherapy, which uses sealed sources of Iodine-125 implanted permanently in the prostate. These sources are currently imported at a high cost, making public treatment in large scale impractical. To reduce costs and to meet domestic demand, the laboratory for production of brachytherapy sources at the Nuclear and Energy Research Institute (IPEN) is currently nationalizing the production of this radioisotope. Iodine is quite volatile making the handling of its radioactive isotopes potentially dangerous. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the risks to which workers are exposed during the production and handling of the sources. The research method consisted initially of a literature review on the toxicity of iodine, intake limits, related physical risks, handling of accidents, generation of radioactive wastes, etc. The results allowed for establishing safety and radioprotection policies in order to ensure efficient and safe production in all stages and the implementation of good laboratory practices. (author)
Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

OpenAIRE

Wehrspohn, Uwe

2002-01-01

An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...
Fuzzy Risk Evaluation in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Using a D Numbers Based Multi-Sensor Information Fusion Method.

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Xinyang; Jiang, Wen

2017-09-12

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a useful tool to define, identify, and eliminate potential failures or errors so as to improve the reliability of systems, designs, and products. Risk evaluation is an important issue in FMEA to determine the risk priorities of failure modes. There are some shortcomings in the traditional risk priority number (RPN) approach for risk evaluation in FMEA, and fuzzy risk evaluation has become an important research direction that attracts increasing attention. In this paper, the fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA is studied from a perspective of multi-sensor information fusion. By considering the non-exclusiveness between the evaluations of fuzzy linguistic variables to failure modes, a novel model called D numbers is used to model the non-exclusive fuzzy evaluations. A D numbers based multi-sensor information fusion method is proposed to establish a new model for fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA. An illustrative example is provided and examined using the proposed model and other existing method to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.
Probabilistic approach for assessing infants' health risks due to ingestion of nanoscale silver released from consumer products.

Science.gov (United States)

Pang, Chengfang; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Pizzol, Lisa; Tsang, Michael P; Sayre, Phil; Marcomini, Antonio

2017-02-01

Silver nanoparticles (n-Ag) are widely used in consumer products and many medical applications because of their unique antibacterial properties. Their use is raising concern about potential human exposures and health effects. Therefore, it is informative to assess the potential human health risks of n-Ag in order to ensure that nanotechnology-based consumer products are deployed in a safe and sustainable way. Even though toxicity studies clearly show the potential hazard of n-Ag, there have been few attempts to integrate hazard and exposure assessments to evaluate risks. The underlying reason for this is the difficulty in characterizing exposure and the lack of toxicity studies essential for human health risk assessment (HHRA). Such data gaps introduce significant uncertainty into the risk assessment process. This study uses probabilistic methods to assess the relative uncertainty and potential risks of n-Ag exposure to infants. In this paper, we estimate the risks for infants potentially exposed to n-Ag through drinking juice or milk from sippy cups or licking baby blankets containing n-Ag. We explicitly evaluate uncertainty and variability contained in available dose-response and exposure data in order to make the risk characterization process transparent. Our results showed that individual margin of exposures for oral exposure to sippy cups and baby blankets containing n-Ag exhibited minimal risk. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
MANAGING RISK BY COORDINATING INVESTMENT, MARKETING, AND PRODUCTION STRATEGIES

OpenAIRE

Johnson, Donald A.; Boehlje, Michael

1983-01-01

This study of the farm firm integrates long run investment and financial decisions, and short-run production and marketing decisions into a single decision framework that includes both time and risk. The results suggest that the use of various strategies for managing market risks allow the entrepreneur to accept mores risk in investing and producing; and that an integrated analysis of production, marketing and investment-financing alternatives is essential to make accurate recommendations abo...
Dairy products consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes: systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dengfeng Gao

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The consumption of dairy products may influence the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM, but inconsistent findings have been reported. Moreover, large variation in the types of dairy intake has not yet been fully explored. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to clarify the dose-response association of dairy products intake and T2DM risk. We searched PubMed, EMBASE and Scopus for studies of dairy products intake and T2DM risk published up to the end of October 2012. Random-effects models were used to estimate summary relative risk (RR statistics. Dose-response relations were evaluated using data from different dairy products in each study. We included 14 articles of cohort studies that reported RR estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs of T2DM with dairy products intake. We found an inverse linear association of consumption of total dairy products (13 studies, low-fat dairy products (8 studies, cheese (7 studies and yogurt (7 studies and risk of T2DM. The pooled RRs were 0.94 (95% CI 0.91-0.97 and 0.88 (0.84-0.93 for 200 g/day total and low-fat dairy consumption, respectively. The pooled RRs were 0.80 (0.69-0.93 and 0.91 (0.82-1.00 for 30 g/d cheese and 50 g/d yogurt consumption, respectively. We also found a nonlinear association of total and low-fat dairy intake and T2DM risk, and the inverse association appeared to be strongest within 200 g/d intake. CONCLUSION: A modest increase in daily intake of dairy products such as low fat dairy, cheese and yogurt may contribute to the prevention of T2DM, which needs confirmation in randomized controlled trials.
Identification of risk products for fragrance contact allergy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Andersen, T F; Kjøller, M

1998-01-01

BACKGROUND: Fragrances are the first or second most common cause of contact allergy in dermatitis patients. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify risk products for fragrance contact allergy. METHODS: The design was a case-control study with a case group of 78 fragrance-mix-positive ecz......BACKGROUND: Fragrances are the first or second most common cause of contact allergy in dermatitis patients. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify risk products for fragrance contact allergy. METHODS: The design was a case-control study with a case group of 78 fragrance......-mix-positive eczema patients and two control groups, one consisting of 1,279 subjects selected as a random sample of the general population and the other consisting of 806 fragrance-mix-negative eczema patients. The identification of risk products was based on the patients' histories of rash to scented products....... Analysis of the associations between first-time rash caused by different specified product categories and fragrance mix sensitivity was performed using logistic regression. RESULTS: It was found that first-time rash caused by deodorant sprays and/or perfumes were related to fragrance contact allergy...
Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

1987-01-01

The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions
A practical discussion of risk management for manufacturing of pharmaceutical products.

Science.gov (United States)

Mollah, A Hamid; Baseman, Harold S; Long, Mike; Rathore, Anurag S

2014-01-01

Quality risk management (QRM) is now a regulatory expectation, and it makes good business sense. The goal of the risk assessment is to increase process understanding and deliver safe and effective product to the patients. Risk analysis and management is an acceptable and effective way to minimize patient risk and determine the appropriate level of controls in manufacturing. While understanding the elements of QRM is important, knowing how to apply them in the manufacturing environment is essential for effective process performance and control. This article will preview application of QRM in pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical manufacturing to illustrate how QRM can help the reader achieve that objective. There are several areas of risk that a drug company may encounter in pharmaceutical manufacturing, specifically addressing oral solid and liquid formulations. QRM tools can be used effectively to identify the risks and develop strategy to minimize or control them. Risks are associated throughout the biopharmaceutical manufacturing process-from raw material supply through manufacturing and filling operations to final distribution via a controlled cold chain process. Assessing relevant attributes and risks for biotechnology-derived products is more complicated and challenging for complex pharmaceuticals. This paper discusses key risk factors in biopharmaceutical manufacturing. Successful development and commercialization of pharmaceutical products is all about managing risks. If a company was to take zero risk, most likely the path to commercialization would not be commercially viable. On the other hand, if the risk taken was too much, the product is likely to have a suboptimal safety and efficacy profile and thus is unlikely to be a successful product. This article addresses the topic of quality risk management with the key objective of minimizing patient risk while creating an optimal process and product. Various tools are presented to aid implementation of these
Risk assessment of allergen metals in cosmetic products.

Science.gov (United States)

Sipahi, Hande; Charehsaz, Mohammad; Güngör, Zerrin; Erdem, Onur; Soykut, Buğra; Akay, Cemal; Aydin, Ahmet

2015-01-01

Cosmetics are one of the most common reasons for hospital referrals with allergic contact dermatitis. Because of the increased use of cosmetics within the population and an increase in allergy cases, monitoring of heavy metals, especially allergen metals, is crucial. The aim of this study was to investigate the concentration of allergen metals, nickel (Ni), cobalt (Co), and chromium (Cr), in the most commonly used cosmetic products including mascara, eyeliner, eye shadow, lipstick, and nail polish. In addition, for safety assessment of cosmetic products, margin of safety of the metals was evaluated. Forty-eight makeup products were purchased randomly from local markets and large cosmetic stores in Istanbul, Turkey, and an atomic absorption spectrometer was used for metal content determination. Risk assessment of the investigated cosmetic products was performed by calculating the systemic exposure dosage (SED) using Scientific Committee on Consumer Safety guideline. According to the results of this investigation in all the samples tested, at least two of the allergen metals, Ni and/or Co and/or Cr were detected. Moreover, 97% of the Ni-detected products, 96% of Cr- and 54% of Co-detected products, contained over 1 μg/g of this metals, which is the suggested ultimate target value for sensitive population and thereby can be considered as the possible allergen. On the basis of the results of this study, SED of the metals was negligible; however, contact dermatitis caused by cosmetics is most probably due to the allergen metal content of the products. In conclusion, to assess the safety of the finished products, postmarketing vigilance and routine monitoring of allergen metals are very important to protect public health.
On risk assessment of energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kunii, Katsuhiko

2005-07-01

Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)
Evaluating the operational risks of biomedical waste using failure mode and effects analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ying-Chu; Tsai, Pei-Yi

2017-06-01

The potential problems and risks of biomedical waste generation have become increasingly apparent in recent years. This study applied a failure mode and effects analysis to evaluate the operational problems and risks of biomedical waste. The microbiological contamination of biomedical waste seldom receives the attention of researchers. In this study, the biomedical waste lifecycle was divided into seven processes: Production, classification, packaging, sterilisation, weighing, storage, and transportation. Twenty main failure modes were identified in these phases and risks were assessed based on their risk priority numbers. The failure modes in the production phase accounted for the highest proportion of the risk priority number score (27.7%). In the packaging phase, the failure mode 'sharp articles not placed in solid containers' had the highest risk priority number score, mainly owing to its high severity rating. The sterilisation process is the main difference in the treatment of infectious and non-infectious biomedical waste. The failure modes in the sterilisation phase were mainly owing to human factors (mostly related to operators). This study increases the understanding of the potential problems and risks associated with biomedical waste, thereby increasing awareness of how to improve the management of biomedical waste to better protect workers, the public, and the environment.
A bioinformatics approach to the development of immunoassays for specified risk material in canned meat products

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reece, P.; Bremer, M.G.E.G.; Stones, R.; Danks, C.; Baumgartner, S.; Tomkies, V.; Hemetsberger, C.; Smits, N.G.E.; Lubbe, W.

2009-01-01

A bioinformatics approach to developing antibodies to specific proteins has been evaluated for the production of antibodies to heat-processed specified risk tissues from ruminants (brain and eye tissue). The approach involved the identification of proteins specific to ruminant tissues by
A guide to understanding and implementing risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

2013-03-01

To review the components of the Congressional mandate for risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) managed by the Food and Drug Administration and assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplant arena. A non-date-limited search of MEDLINE and EMBASE (January 2007-June 2012) was conducted by using the following search terms: risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, and organ transplant, including a query of the individual organs. Information from the Federal Register and the Food and Drug Administration was also evaluated. REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product. Elements of REMS programs may consist of 3 levels: a medication guide, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use. A medication guide is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patients' decision making, and enhance medication adherence. Communication plans help educate health care providers and encourage adherence with REMS. The elements to assure safe use is a restrictive process implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure safe access for patients to products with known serious risks. In transplant medicine, REMS currently exist for belatacept (medication guide and communication plan) and the mycophenolic acid derivatives (medication guide and elements to assure safe use). REMS are another step in the evolution of the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents. Use of REMS in solid-organ transplant is becoming common. Transplant clinicians must provide required patient education and become involved with other aspects of REMS implementation to reduce the serious risks of pharmaceuticals and to improve patients' outcomes.

Software product family evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Linden, F; Bosch, J; Kamsties, E; Kansala, K; Krzanik, L; Obbink, H; VanDerLinden, F

2004-01-01

This paper proposes a 4-dimensional software product family engineering evaluation model. The 4 dimensions relate to the software engineering concerns of business, architecture, organisation and process. The evaluation model is meant to be used within organisations to determine the status of their
Risk and Uncertainty in Production Economics | Otaha | African ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

One of the most celebrated and feared concepts in the World today are risk which is the product of uncertainty. Risk and uncertainty are often used interchangeably by many economists as if they are the same thing, but it is not true. While risk can be measured and estimated, and even ensured, uncertainty can not.
Flour production from shrimp by-products and sensory evaluation of flour-based products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thiago Mendes Fernandes

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The objective of this work was to evaluate the production of flour using by-products (cephalothorax obtained from the shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei industry, and to perform a sensory analysis of shrimp flour-based products. Physicochemical and microbiological analyses on fresh cephalothorax and on manufactured flour were performed, as well as the determination of cholesterol content of this flour, and the sensorial evaluation of soup and pastry made with this flour. By the microbiological analyses, no pathogenic microorganism was detected in the samples. Physicochemical analyses of flour showed high levels of protein (50.05% and minerals (20.97%. Shrimp cephalothorax flour showed high levels of cholesterol. The sensory evaluation indicated a good acceptance of the products, with satisfactory acceptability index (81% for soup, and 83% for pastry, which indicates that shrimp cephalothorax in the form of flour has a potential for developing new products.
Relationship between productivity, quality and musculoskeletal disorder risk among deboning workers in a Chilean salmon industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Ilardi, Juan S

2012-01-01

The purpose of this ergonomic investigation is to establish a relationship between quality, productivity and risk of musculoskeletal disorder (MSD) in manual bone-removal process in the salmon fish industry. The method consists in a follow up study of 14 workers in a lane that processes salmon steak. Time between each steak (work cycle), quality of the steak's meat through inspection of deepness and length of the gapping generated by the manual bone-removal process and risk for musculoskeletal disorders through OCRA method were considered for this study. IMC and musculoskeletal Nordic Questionnaire of Kourinka were applied to the workers evaluated. Fourteen women worker's completed the evaluation, age 37.67 ± 8.1, with 65.27 ± 34.41 months of experience, with an IMC of 27.18 ± 3.87 (1.52 ± 0.057 meters of height) at the time of the evaluation. Time for deboning per steak averaged 38 ± 14 seconds with 68.33 ± 14.79 steaks per hour per worker. In quality terms, 74% of the steaks were qualified as "premium steaks" and 26% as "grade or industrial" (lower category and cheapest price). OCRA index for the right hand average 13.79 ± 4.59 and 3.59 ± 0.41 for the left hand. From Nordic questionnaire 80% of the workers manifested musculoskeletal symptoms in the right hand/wrist, followed up by shoulder with 60% of the workers and arm/elbow with over 50%. There was no statistically significant relationship between productivity and quality of the steak after manual bone removal process and between quality and MSD risk. However, there was a statistically significant relationship between productivity and MSD risk (pproductive sector, considering its importance for this region.
Risk analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought disaster in the major grain-producing areas, China

OpenAIRE

Zongtang Xie; Jiuping Xu; Yanfei Deng

2016-01-01

The analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought risk can assist in reducing regional disasters and agricultural drought losses. Because of the uncertainties and incomplete agricultural drought information, this paper employed an information diffusion technology and information matrix to identify a drought disaster risk distribution and to quantify the relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the grain production losses in China's major grain-producing areas. From the asse...
Risk management measures for chemicals in consumer products: documentation, assessment, and communication across the supply chain.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruinen de Bruin, Yuri; Hakkinen, Pertti Bert; Lahaniatis, Majlinda; Papameletiou, Demosthenes; Del Pozo, Carlos; Reina, Vittorio; Van Engelen, Jacqueline; Heinemeyer, Gerhard; Viso, Anne Catherine; Rodriguez, Carlos; Jantunen, Matti

2007-12-01

This paper analyzes the way risk management measures (RMMs) for consumer products have been used to date in authority and industry risk assessments. A working concept for consumer product RMMs is developed, aimed at controlling, limiting or avoiding exposures, and helping to insure the safe use (or handling) of a substance as part of a consumer product. Particular focus is placed on new requirements introduced by REACH (registration, evaluation, and authorization of chemicals). A RMMs categorization approach is also developed, dividing consumer product RMMs into those that are product integrated and those that are communicated to consumers. For each of these categories, RMMs for normal use, accidental use or misuse need to be distinguished. The level of detail for documenting, assessing and communicating RMMs across supply chains can vary, depending on the type of the assessment (tiered approach). Information on RMMs was collected from published sources to demonstrate that a taxonomical approach using standard descriptors for RMMs libraries is needed for effective information exchange across supply chains.
Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hopper, K.M.

1994-01-01

The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process
Applying lean thinking to risk management in product development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willumsen, Pelle Lundquist; Oehmen, Josef; Rossi, Monica

2017-01-01

This paper re-conceptualizes risk management (RM) in product development (PD) through a lean thinking perspective. Arguably, risk management in PD projects became a victim of its own success. It is often implemented as a highly formalized, compliance driven activity, ending up disconnected from...... delay or cost overrun. This paper explores the relationship between product development and risk management and proposes to make RM an integrated value adding part of PD. Through a literature review we identify the potential of re-conceptualizing RM through lean thinking. We then conceptualize...
Evaluation of ergonomic physical risk factors in a truck manufacturing plant: case study in SCANIA Production Angers.

Science.gov (United States)

Zare, Mohsen; Malinge-Oudenot, Agnes; Höglund, Robert; Biau, Sophie; Roquelaure, Yves

2016-01-01

The aims of this study were 1) to assess the ergonomic physical risk factors from practitioner's viewpoint in a truck assembly plant with an in-house observational method and the NIOSH lifting equation, and 2) to compare the results of both methods and their differences. The in-house ergonomic observational method for truck assembly i.e. the SCANIA Ergonomics Standard (SES) and the NIOSH lifting equation were applied to evaluate physical risk factors and lifting of loads by operators. Both risk assessment approaches revealed various levels of risk, ranging from low to high. Two workstations were identified by the SES method as high risk. The NIOSH lifting index (LI) was greater than two for four lifting tasks. The results of the SES method disagreed with the NIOSH lifting equation for lifting tasks. Moreover, meaningful variations in ergonomic risk patterns were found for various truck models at each workstation. These results provide a better understanding of the physical ergonomic exposure from practitioner's point of view in the automotive assembly plant.
MONTE CARLO SIMULATION: IMPORTANT MANAGEMENT TOOL IN EVALUATING DECISIONS UNDER RISK. CASE STUDY: LAUNCH A NEW PRODUCT OF SHOES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Veres Vincentiu

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Decisions are a result of choices made between several alternatives and will affect all participants in the decision-making process. In this paper we analyze the Monte Carlo simulation as an important management tool in evaluating decisions under risk. The method is particularly useful in simulating decision problems. For example, the profit that could be achieved if a company launches a new product may depend on a number of factors (market share, advertising, production costs, launch costs, the lifetime of the product, etc. The company manager should identify all factors that could affect profit and then to consider the large number of ways in which these factors may interrelate. In such situations it is recommended company manager to divide the problem into smaller parts, asking him to estimate the probability distribution for market share, for advertising, for the cost of launch. Once they were obtained it can be determined their combined effect in order to obtain the probability distribution of profit. Through computer can generate a large number of possible combinations of situations where you choose a particular course of action. Upon completion of the simulation possible combination will be generated mostly while the least possible combination will be generated less frequently. For exemplification we selected a company producing shoes in Cluj market who wants to launch a new model for autumn-winter 2013-2014. In the current period the company has limited production capacity, has a number of additional contracts honored and general economic crisis situation makes money availability to be extremely limited. Accordingly, the company will have to choose a single product to be launched next season. The company will have to decide which of the two new products to be launched on the market: a model of boots for men in business class or a new model of women\\'s boots of the same class business. The company is not sure either production costs or
Fission product yield evaluation for the USA evaluated nuclear data files

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rider, B.F.; England, T.R.

1994-01-01

An evaluated set of fission product yields for use in calculation of decay heat curves with improved accuracy has been prepared. These evaluated yields are based on all known experimental data through 1992. Unmeasured fission product yields are calculated from charge distribution, pairing effects, and isomeric state models developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The current evaluation has been distributed as the ENDF/B-VI fission product yield data set
VIIRS Product Evaluation at the Ocean PEATE

Science.gov (United States)

Patt, Frederick S.; Feldman, Gene C.

2010-01-01

The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP) mission will support the continuation of climate records generated from NASA missions. The NASA Science Data Segment (SDS) relies upon discipline-specific centers of expertise to evaluate the NPP data products for suitability as climate data records, The Ocean Product Evaluation and Analysis Tool Element (PEATE) will build upon Well established NASA capabilities within the Ocean Color program in order to evaluate the NPP Visible and Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Ocean Color and Chlorophyll data products. The specific evaluation methods will support not only the evaluation of product quality but also the sources of differences with existing data records.
HOW INTERNAL RISK - BASED AUDIT APPRAISES THE EVALUATION OF RISKS MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Dorosh

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the nature and function of the internal risk-based audit process approach to create patterns of risks and methods of evaluation. Deals with the relationship between the level of maturity of the risk of the company and the method of risk-based internal audit. it was emphasized that internal auditing provides an independent and objective opinion to an organization’s management as to whether its risks are being managed to acceptable levels.
Biochar production and applications in sub-Saharan Africa: opportunities, constraints, risks and uncertainties.

Science.gov (United States)

Gwenzi, Willis; Chaukura, Nhamo; Mukome, Fungai N D; Machado, Stephen; Nyamasoka, Blessing

2015-03-01

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) experiences soil degradation, food and livelihood insecurity, environmental pollution and lack of access to energy. Biochar has gained international research attention, but few studies have investigated the potential of biochar to address the challenges in SSA. This paper seeks to identify and evaluate generic potential opportunities and constraints associated with biochar application in sub-Saharan Africa using Zimbabwe as case study. Specific objectives were to; (1) identify and quantify feedstocks for biochar production; (2) review literature on the biochar properties, and evaluate its potential applications in agriculture, environmental remediation and energy provision, and (3) identify research gaps, risks and constraints associated with biochar technology. Biochar feedstocks in Zimbabwe were estimated to be 9.9 Mton yr(-1), predominantly derived from manure (88%) and firewood (10%). This will yield 3.5, 1.7 and 3.1 Mton yr(-1) of biochar, bio-oil and synthetic gas, respectively. Land application of the 3.5 Mton yr(-1) of biochar (≈63% C) would sequester approximately 2.2 Mton yr(-1) of soil carbon in Zimbabwe alone, while simultaneously minimizing the environmental and public health risks, and greenhouse gas emissions associated with solid organic wastes. Biochar potentially enhances soil and crop productivity through enhanced nutrient and soil moisture availability, amelioration of acidic soils and stimulation of microbial diversity and activity. Due to its excellent adsorption properties, biochar has potential applications in industrial and environmental applications including water and wastewater treatment, remediation and revegetation of contaminated soils and water. Biochar products have energy values comparable or higher than those of traditional biomass fuels; thereby making them ideal alternative sources of energy especially for poor households without access to electricity. Before the benefits of biochar can be
Environmental risk assessment in an oil production station near a mangrove area

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Z' Graggen, M.; Moraes, R.; Ferreira, H.; Thomas, C. [Golder Associates, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Linhares, M.; Vaqueiro, R.L.C.; Sauerbronn, J.L.B. [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2004-07-01

Pedra Branca Station is an oil production area that pumps, stores and transfers crude oil from wells located near the station. It is located 2 km of the mouth of the Sao Paulo River, northeast Brazil, in a mangrove area of social, economical and environmental importance. During the past 30+ years of operation, the area has been contaminated with leaks and spills of crude oil from pipelines and storage tanks. The assessment aimed to verify if local conditions represent risk to maintenance workers at the Station, nearby residents that collect firewood and shellfish and that consume shellfish from the Site. Crab and oyster samples were collected and analyzed and a questionnaire concerning activities of workers and residents was administrated. Contaminants of potential concern included barium, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and petroleum hydrocarbons. Potential risks associated with soil/sediment ingestion, dermal contact with soil/sediment and ingestion of shellfish were evaluated. The study indicated that risks to maintenance worker and nearby residents due to exposure to non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic substances present in soil, sediment, and shellfish were below limits considered acceptable to regulatory authorities. The evaluation provided scientific bases for decision making regarding the management of the contaminated area. (author)
Understanding risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Gabardi, Steven

2011-07-01

The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Amendments Act of 2007 mandated that Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) be required of manufacturers. These REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with drugs and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product, including once the product becomes available as generic. The elements of an individual REMS program consist of three levels: medication guide or patient package insert, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). A medication guide or patient package insert is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patient decision making, and enhance drug adherence. Communication plans are used to educate health care providers and to encourage their compliance with REMS. The ETASU is a restrictive process that is implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure that patients have safe access to products with known serious risks that would otherwise be unavailable. To review the components of REMS and specifically assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplantation arena, a literature search of the MEDLINE database (January 2007-December 2010) was performed, and published materials from the FDA and its Web site were also reviewed. In transplantation, REMS programs exist for both everolimus (medication guide and communication plan) and sirolimus (medication guide). The FDA has stated that all mycophenolic acid derivatives will be subject to a proposed REMS that has not yet been approved; however, both branded mycophenolic acid agents already have approved medication guides. The REMS are a permanent fixture in the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents, and their further implementation in solid organ transplantation is inevitable. Transplantation providers should take a proactive role in patient education and implementation of REMS within the therapeutic area
At-Risk Youth Appearance and Job Performance Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Freeburg, Beth Winfrey; Workman, Jane E.

2008-01-01

The goal of this study was to identify the relationship of at-risk youth workplace appearance to other job performance criteria. Employers (n = 30; each employing from 1 to 17 youths) evaluated 178 at-risk high school youths who completed a paid summer employment experience. Appearance evaluations were significantly correlated with evaluations of…
Impact of a health promotion program on employee health risks and work productivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Mills, Peter R; Kessler, Ronald C; Cooper, John; Sullivan, Sean

2007-01-01

Evaluate the impact of a multicomponent workplace health promotion program on employee health risks and work productivity. Quasi-experimental 12-month before-after intervention-control study. A multinational corporation headquartered in the United Kingdom. Of 618 employees offered the program, 266 (43%) completed questionnaires before and after the program. A total of 1242 of 2500 (49.7%) of a control population also completed questionnaires 12 months apart. A multicomponent health promotion program incorporating a health risk appraisal questionnaire, access to a tailored health improvement web portal, wellness literature, and seminars and workshops focused upon identified wellness issues. Outcomes were (1) cumulative count of health risk factors and the World Health Organization health and work performance questionnaire measures of (2) workplace absenteeism and (3) work performance. After adjusting for baseline differences, improvements in all three outcomes were significantly greater in the intervention group compared with the control group. Mean excess reductions of 0.45 health risk factors and 0.36 monthly absenteeism days and a mean increase of 0.79 on the work performance scale were observed in the intervention group compared with the control group. The intervention yielded a positive return on investment, even using conservative assumptions about effect size estimation. The results suggest that a well-implemented multicomponent workplace health promotion program can produce sizeable changes in health risks and productivity.
Dairy product consumption and risk of colorectal cancer in an older mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Barrubés, Laura; Babio, Nancy; Mena-Sánchez, Guillermo; Toledo, Estefania; Ramírez-Sabio, Judith B; Estruch, Ramón; Ros, Emilio; Fitó, Montserrat; Arós, Fernando; Fiol, Miquel; Santos-Lozano, José Manuel; Serra-Majem, Lluís; Pintó, Xavier; Martínez-González, Miguel Ángel; Sorlí, José Vicente; Basora, Josep; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi

2018-04-16

Prospective studies have reported an inverse association between the consumption of total dairy products and milk and the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Nonetheless, there is little and inconsistent evidence regarding subtypes of dairy product and CRC risk. We assessed the associations between the consumption of total dairy products, their different subtypes and CRC risk in older Mediterranean individuals at high cardiovascular risk. We analyzed data from 7,216 men and women (55-80 years) without CRC at baseline from the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea study. Individuals were recruited between 2003 and 2009 and followed up until December 2012. At baseline and yearly thereafter, consumption of total and specific dairy products was assessed using a validated 137-item food-frequency questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards ratios (HRs) of CRC incidence were estimated for tertiles of mean consumption of dairy products during the follow-up. During a median [interquartile range] follow-up of 6.0 [4.4-7.3] years, we documented 101 incident CRC cases. In the multivariable-adjusted models, HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of CRC for the comparison of extreme tertiles of total dairy product and low-fat milk consumption were 0.55 (95% CI: 0.31-0.99; p-trend = 0.037) and 0.54 (95% CI: 0.32-0.92; p-trend = 0.022), respectively. No significant associations with other dairy products (whole-fat and low-fat dairy products; total, low-fat and whole-fat yogurt; cheese; total, low-fat and whole-fat milk; concentrated full-fat dairy products, sugar-enriched dairy products and fermented dairy products) were found. A high consumption of total dairy products and low-fat milk was significantly associated with a reduced CRC risk. © 2018 UICC.
Failures of knowledge production in nuclear power risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanne, Johan M.

2008-09-01

Risks are ascribed in processes of knowledge production, where risk objects are defined and measures taken. This knowledge is also the basis for regulatory action. Thus, uncertainties in knowledge production, based upon choices of assumptions, methods, calculations and evidence criteria for reliable data create vulnerabilities for risk management and risk regulation. A recent incident in Swedish nuclear power plant provides an opportunity to develop theories of knowledge production in complex organizations. Knowledge modes within nuclear power can be characterized as either calculated logics where evidence claims need numbers, real time logics based upon subtle signals and tacit knowledge or as policy logics, navigating between internal and external demands for safety, trustworthiness and profit. The plant had neither foreseen the triggering event nor designed the plant to withstand it. I analyze how the plant and the regulator have interpreted the event, its significance and the measures taken to prevent similar events. I also discuss alternative interpretations, lack of knowledge and the generic deficiencies in knowledge production that the event indicates. First, the plant was not as robustly designed as expected. Deficiencies in diversification may have been caused by overconfidence in the reliability of its design. Second, inadequate design was ascribed to various deficient knowledge production processes: original design of the plant, reconstruction or caused by inadequate learning from previous events. The failures in knowledge production were probably caused by insufficient integration of different knowledge processes and limitations in engineering analysis. Knowledge about risks from nuclear power operations is mainly based upon calculations and simulations, not upon real events. But knowledge and design could be improved also without accidents. Control room operators and maintenance staff can provide invaluable knowledge and methods; to improve causal

Failures of knowledge production in nuclear power risk management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanne, Johan M.

2008-09-15

Risks are ascribed in processes of knowledge production, where risk objects are defined and measures taken. This knowledge is also the basis for regulatory action. Thus, uncertainties in knowledge production, based upon choices of assumptions, methods, calculations and evidence criteria for reliable data create vulnerabilities for risk management and risk regulation. A recent incident in Swedish nuclear power plant provides an opportunity to develop theories of knowledge production in complex organizations. Knowledge modes within nuclear power can be characterized as either calculated logics where evidence claims need numbers, real time logics based upon subtle signals and tacit knowledge or as policy logics, navigating between internal and external demands for safety, trustworthiness and profit. The plant had neither foreseen the triggering event nor designed the plant to withstand it. I analyze how the plant and the regulator have interpreted the event, its significance and the measures taken to prevent similar events. I also discuss alternative interpretations, lack of knowledge and the generic deficiencies in knowledge production that the event indicates. First, the plant was not as robustly designed as expected. Deficiencies in diversification may have been caused by overconfidence in the reliability of its design. Second, inadequate design was ascribed to various deficient knowledge production processes: original design of the plant, reconstruction or caused by inadequate learning from previous events. The failures in knowledge production were probably caused by insufficient integration of different knowledge processes and limitations in engineering analysis. Knowledge about risks from nuclear power operations is mainly based upon calculations and simulations, not upon real events. But knowledge and design could be improved also without accidents. Control room operators and maintenance staff can provide invaluable knowledge and methods; to improve causal
Evaluation of the sanitary and environmental risks resulting from the Erika sinking and from the coasts cleaning operations; Evaluation des risques sanitaires et environnementaux resultant du naufrage de l'ERIKA et des operations de nettoyage des cotes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cicolella, A

2000-03-15

This synthesis presents the methodology of the risks evaluation and of the INERIS report, the products analysis, general data on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, the exposure evaluation, the sanitary impact evaluation for the polycyclic organic hydrocarbons and volatile organic compounds and the evaluation of ecological risks. (A.L.B.)
Evaluation of Modified Risk Claim Advertising Formats for Camel Snus

Science.gov (United States)

Fix, Brian V.; Adkison, Sarah E.; O'Connor, Richard J.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Cummings, K. Michael; Rees, Vaughan W.; Hatsukami, Dorothy K.

2017-01-01

Objectives: The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has regulatory authority for modified risk tobacco product advertising claims. To guide future regulatory efforts, we investigated how variations in modified risk claim advertisements influence consumer perceptions of product risk claims for Camel Snus. Methods: Young people and adults (15-65),…
Discussion on the safety production risk managmeent of uranium mines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Bin; Luo Yun; Hu Penghua; Zhu Disi

2009-01-01

Based on the modern safety risk management theories and according to the actual situation, risk management for work safety in uranium mines is discussed from three aspects: risk identification,risk analysis and evaluation, and risk control. Referring to the '4M(Men,Machine,Medium,Management) factors' and 'Three types of hazards' theory, the classification of uranium mine accidents and risk factors are analyzed. In addition, the types and evaluation indexes of major risks of uranium mines as well as the 'spot, line, area' model of risk identification and analysis and the 'hierarchical' risk control mechanism are also studied. (authors)
Safety and risk assessment of ceramide 3 in cosmetic products.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Seul Min; Lee, Byung-Mu

2015-10-01

Ceramide 3 is used mainly as a moisturizer in various cosmetic products. Although several safety studies on formulations containing pseudo-ceramide or ceramide have been conducted at the preclinical and clinical levels for regulatory approval, no studies have evaluated the systemic toxicity of ceramide 3. To address this issue, we conducted a risk assessment and comprehensive toxicological review of ceramide and pseudo-ceramide. We assumed that ceramide 3 is present in various personal and cosmetic products at concentrations of 0.5-10%. Based on previously reported exposure data, the margin of safety (MOS) was calculated for product type, use pattern, and ceramide 3 concentration. Lipsticks with up to 10% ceramide 3 (MOS = 4111) are considered safe, while shampoos containing 0.5% ceramide 3 (MOS = 148) are known to be safe. Reported MOS values for body lotion applied to the hands (1% ceramide 3) and back (5% ceramide 3) were 103 and 168, respectively. We anticipate that face cream would be safe up to a ceramide 3 concentration of 3% (MOS = 149). Collectively, the MOS approach indicated no safety concerns for cosmetic products containing less than 1% ceramide 3. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Modified risk evaluation method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Udell, C.J.; Tilden, J.A.; Toyooka, R.T.

1993-08-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide a structured and cost-oriented process to determine risks associated with nuclear material and other security interests. Financial loss is a continuing concern for US Department of Energy contractors. In this paper risk is equated with uncertainty of cost impacts to material assets or human resources. The concept provides a method for assessing the effectiveness of an integrated protection system, which includes operations, safety, emergency preparedness, and safeguards and security. The concept is suitable for application to sabotage evaluations. The protection of assets is based on risk associated with cost impacts to assets and the potential for undesirable events. This will allow managers to establish protection priorities in terms of the cost and the potential for the event, given the current level of protection
Risk analysis of sterile production plants: a new and simple, workable approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Gapp, Guenther; Holzknecht, Peter

2011-01-01

A sterile active ingredient plant and a sterile finished dosage filling plant both comprise very complex production processes and systems. The sterility of the final product cannot be assured solely by sterility testing, in-process controls, environmental monitoring of cleanrooms, and media fill validations. Based on more than 15 years experience, 4 years ago the authors created a new but very simple approach to the risk analysis of sterile plants. This approach is not a failure mode and effects analysis and therefore differs from the PDA Technical Report 44 Quality Risk Management for Aseptic Processes of 2008. The principle involves specific questions, which have been defined in the risk analysis questionnaire in advance, to be answered by an expert team. If the questionnaire item is dealt with appropriately, the answer is assigned a low-risk number (1) and if very weak or deficient it gets a high-risk number (5). In addition to the numbers, colors from green (not problematic) through orange to red (very problematic) are attributed to make the results more striking. Because the individual units of each production plant have a defined and different impact on the overall sterility of the final product, different risk emphasis factors have to be taken into account (impact factor 1, 3, or 5). In a well run cleanroom, the cleanroom operators have a lower impact than other units with regard to the contamination risk. The resulting number of the analyzed production plant and the diagram of the assessment subsequently offers very important and valuable information about a) the risk for microbiological contamination (sterility/endotoxins) of the product, and b) the compliance status of the production plant and the risk of failing lots, as well as probable observations of upcoming regulatory agency audits. Both items above are highly important for the safety of the patient. It is also an ideal tool to identify deficient or weak systems requiring improvement and upgrade
Methodology for environmental risk assessment associated with the use of veterinary medicinal products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioana Valentina Tihulca

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Environmental risk assessment (ERA is mandatory for all new applications for centralized marketing authorization or national regardless of their legal basis. ERA aims to protect the environment. Risk assessment has two phases of veterinary product evaluation possible role of exposure and its effects. Phase I of the ERA isbased on filling a decision tree with 19 questions. If the answers to these questions do not stop the assessment at this stage then is advancing to Phase II. It uses a two stage approach stage A and stage B. The first stage, stage A, studies using simple, less expensive studies. I f the assessment is not complete, then is appealed to Step B to drill ERA. If there is still a risk indicator after filling and assessment in stage B, then, to mitigate risk, is recommended the file discussing and of the proposals for additional data.
Product Evaluation Task Force Phase Two report for BWR/PWR dissolver wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Francis, A.J.

1990-01-01

It has been proposed that all Intermediate Level Wastes arising at Sellafield should be encapsulated prior to ultimate disposal. The Product Evaluation Task Force (PETF) was set up to investigate possible encapsulants and to produce an adequate data base to justify the preferred matrices. This report details the work carried out, under Phase 2 of the Product Evaluation Task Force programme, on BWR/PWR Dissolver Wastes. Three possible types of encapsulants for BWR/PWR Dissolver Wastes:- Inorganic cements, Polymer cements and Polymers are evaluated using the Kepner Tregoe decision analysis technique. This technique provides a methodology for scoring and ranking alternative options and evaluating any risks associated with an option. The analysis shows that for all four stages of waste management operations ie Storage, Transport, handling and emplacement, Disposal and Process, cement matrices are considerably superior to other potential matrices. A matrix, consisting of three parts Blast Furnace Slag (BFS) to one part Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC), is recommended for Phase 3 studies on BWR/PWR Dissolver Wastes. (author)
Product Evaluation Task Force Phase Two report for MEB crud/filter aid

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Francis, A.J.

1991-01-01

It has been proposed that all Intermediate Level Wastes arising at Sellafield should be encapsulated prior to ultimate disposal. The Product Evaluation Task Force (PETF) was set up to investigate possible encapsulants and to produce an adequate data base to justify the preferred matrices. This report details the work carried out, under Phase 2 of the Product Evaluation Task Force programme, on MEB Crud/Filter Aid. Three possible types of encapsulants for MEB Crud/Filter Aid:- Inorganic cements, Polymer cements, and Polymers are evaluated using the Kepner Tregoe decision and analysis technique. This technique provides a methodology for scoring and ranking alternative options and evaluating any risks associated with an option. The analysis shows that for all four stages of waste management operations, ie Storage, Transport, handling and emplacement, Disposal and, Process, cement matrices are considerably superior to other potential matrices. A matrix, consisting of nine parts Blast Furnace Slag (BFS) to one part Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) is recommended as the preferred matrix for Phase 3 studies on MEB/Filter Aid. (author)
Food consumption of adolescents. A simplified questionnaire for evaluating cardiovascular risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chiara Vera Lucia

2001-01-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To develop a simplified questionnaire for self-evaluation by adolescents of foods associated with the risk of coronary diseases. METHODS: Frequency questionnaires about 80 foods were answered by representative samples of 256 adolescents aged 12 to 19 from Rio de Janeiro as part of the Nutrition and Health Research project. The dependent variable was the serum cholesterol predicting equation as influenced by diet, and the independent variables were the foods. The variables were normalized and, using Pearson's correlation coefficient, those with r>0.10 were selected for the regression model. The model was analyzed for sex, age, random sample, and total calories. Those food products that explained 85% of the cholesterol variation equation were present in the caloric model, and contained trans fatty acids were selected for the questionnaire. RESULTS: Sixty-five food products had a statistically significant correlation (P<0.001 with the dependent variable. The simplified questionnaire included 9 food products present in all tested models: steak or broiled meat, hamburger, full-fat cheese, French fries or potato chips, whole milk, pies or cakes, cookies, sausages, butter or margarine. The limit of the added food points for self-evaluation was 100, and over 120 points was considered excessive. CONCLUSION: The scores given to the food products and the criteria for the evaluation of the consumption limits enabled the adolescents to get to know and to balance their intake.
Key factors which concur to the correct therapeutic evaluation of herbal products in free radical-induced diseases.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cesare eMancuso

2015-04-01

Full Text Available For many years now the world's scientific literature has been perfused with articles on the therapeutic potential of natural products, the vast majority of which have herbal origins, as in the case of free radical-induced diseases. What is often overlooked is the effort of researchers who take into consideration the preclinical and clinical evaluation of these herbal products, in order to demonstrate the therapeutic efficacy and safety. The first critical issue to be addressed in the early stages of the preclinical studies is related to pharmacokinetics, which is sometimes not very favorable, of some of these products, which limits the bioavailability after oral intake. In this regard, it is worthy underlining how it is often unethical to propose the therapeutic efficacy of a compound on the basis of preclinical results obtained with far higher concentrations to those which, hopefully, could be achieved in organs and tissues of subjects taking these products by mouth. The most widely used approach to overcome the problem related to the low bioavailability involves the complexation of the active ingredients of herbal products with non-toxic carriers that facilitate the absorption and distribution. Even the induction or inhibition of drug metabolizing enzymes by herbal products, and the consequent variations of plasma concentrations of co-administered drugs, are phenomena to be carefully evaluated as they can give rise to side-effects. This risk is even greater when considering that people lack the perception of the risk arising from an over use of herbal products that, by their very nature, are considered risk-free.
Consumer Evaluations of Food Risk Management Quality in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleef, van E.; Houghton, J.R.; Krystallis, A.; Pfenning, U.; Rowe, G.; Dijk, van H.; Lans, van der I.A.; Frewer, L.J.

2007-01-01

In developing and implementing appropriate food risk management strategies, it is important to understand how consumers evaluate the quality of food risk management practices. The aim of this study is to model the underlying psychological factors influencing consumer evaluations of food risk
Farm Technologies and Production Risk in the Face of Climate ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In countries where insurance and credit markets are thin or missing, production and consumption risks play a critical role in the choice and use of production inputs and adoption of new farm technologies. This paper investigated the effect of selected farm technologies and their risk implications in different rainfall patterns of ...
Development of hydrate risk quantification in oil and gas production

Science.gov (United States)

Chaudhari, Piyush N.

Subsea flowlines that transport hydrocarbons from wellhead to the processing facility face issues from solid deposits such as hydrates, waxes, asphaltenes, etc. The solid deposits not only affect the production but also pose a safety concern; thus, flow assurance is significantly important in designing and operating subsea oil and gas production. In most subsea oil and gas operations, gas hydrates form at high pressure and low temperature conditions, causing the risk of plugging flowlines, with a undesirable impact on production. Over the years, the oil and gas industry has shifted their perspective from hydrate avoidance to hydrate management given several parameters such as production facility, production chemistry, economic and environmental concerns. Thus, understanding the level of hydrate risk associated with subsea flowlines is an important in developing efficient hydrate management techniques. In the past, hydrate formation models were developed for various flow-systems (e.g., oil dominated, water dominated, and gas dominated) present in the oil and gas production. The objective of this research is to extend the application of the present hydrate prediction models for assessing the hydrate risk associated with subsea flowlines that are prone to hydrate formation. It involves a novel approach for developing quantitative hydrate risk models based on the conceptual models built from the qualitative knowledge obtained from experimental studies. A comprehensive hydrate risk model, that ranks the hydrate risk associated with the subsea production system as a function of time, hydrates, and several other parameters, which account for inertial, viscous, interfacial forces acting on the flow-system, is developed for oil dominated and condensate systems. The hydrate plugging risk for water dominated systems is successfully modeled using The Colorado School of Mines Hydrate Flow Assurance Tool (CSMHyFAST). It is found that CSMHyFAST can be used as a screening tool in
Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives for the Hanford Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, S.W.; Lane, N.K.; Swenson, L.

1994-01-01

Risk assessment is one of the many tools used to evaluate and select remedial alternatives and evaluate the risk associated with selected remedial alternatives during and after implementation. The risk evaluation of remedial alternatives (RERA) is performed to ensure selected alternatives are protective of human health and the environment. Final remedy selection is promulgated in a record of decision (ROD) and risks of the selected alternatives are documented. Included in the ROD documentation are the risk-related analyses for long-term effectiveness, short-term effectiveness, and overall protection of human health and the environment including how a remedy will eliminate, reduce or control risks and whether exposure will be reduced to acceptable levels. A major goal of RERA in the process leading to a ROD is to provide decision-makers with specific risk information that may be needed to choose among alternatives. For the Hanford Site, there are many considerations that must be addressed from a risk perspective. These include the large size of the Hanford Site, the presence of both chemical and radionuclide contamination, one likelihood of many analogues sites, public and worker health and safety, and stakeholder concern with ecological impacts from site contamination and remedial actions. A RERA methodology has been promulgated to (1) identify the points in the process leading to a ROD where risk assessment input is either required or desirable and (2) provide guidance on how to evaluate risks associated with remedial alternatives under consideration. The methodology and evaluations parallel EPA guidance requiring consideration of short-term impacts and the overall protectiveness of remedial actions for evaluating potential human health and ecological risks during selection of remedial alternatives, implementation of remedial measures, and following completion of remedial action
Evaluating emergency risk communications: a dialogue with the experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Craig W; Vanderford, Marsha L; Crouse Quinn, Sandra

2008-10-01

Evaluating emergency risk communications is fraught with challenges since communication can be approached from both a systemic and programmatic level. Therefore, one must consider stakeholders' perspectives, effectiveness issues, standards of evidence and utility, and channels of influence (e.g., mass media and law enforcement). Evaluation issues related to timing, evaluation questions, methods, measures, and accountability are raised in this dialogue with emergency risk communication specialists. Besides the usual evaluation competencies, evaluators in this area need to understand and work collaboratively with stakeholders and be attuned to the dynamic contextual nature of emergency risk communications. Sample resources and measures are provided here to aid in this emerging and exciting field of evaluation.
Two approaches to incorporate clinical data uncertainty into multiple criteria decision analysis for benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products.

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Shihua; Zhang, Lanju; Yang, Bo

2014-07-01

The Problem formulation, Objectives, Alternatives, Consequences, Trade-offs, Uncertainties, Risk attitude, and Linked decisions (PrOACT-URL) framework and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) have been recommended by the European Medicines Agency for structured benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products undergoing regulatory review. The objective of this article was to provide solutions to incorporate the uncertainty from clinical data into the MCDA model when evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. Two statistical approaches, the δ-method approach and the Monte-Carlo approach, were proposed to construct the confidence interval of the overall benefit-risk score from the MCDA model as well as other probabilistic measures for comparing the benefit-risk profiles between treatment options. Both approaches can incorporate the correlation structure between clinical parameters (criteria) in the MCDA model and are straightforward to implement. The two proposed approaches were applied to a case study to evaluate the benefit-risk profile of an add-on therapy for rheumatoid arthritis (drug X) relative to placebo. It demonstrated a straightforward way to quantify the impact of the uncertainty from clinical data to the benefit-risk assessment and enabled statistical inference on evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. The δ-method approach provides a closed form to quantify the variability of the overall benefit-risk score in the MCDA model, whereas the Monte-Carlo approach is more computationally intensive but can yield its true sampling distribution for statistical inference. The obtained confidence intervals and other probabilistic measures from the two approaches enhance the benefit-risk decision making of medicinal products. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Investigation on musculoskeletal discomfort and ergonomics risk factors among production team members at an automotive component assembly plant

Science.gov (United States)

Aziz, Fazilah Abdul; Ghazalli, Zakri; Zuki Mohamed, Nik Mohd; Isfar, Amri

2017-10-01

Musculoskeletal discomfort (MSD) is very common condition in automotive industry. MSD is affecting the worker’s health, well-being and lower down the productivity. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to identify the prevalence of MSD and ergonomics risk factors among the production team members at a selected automotive component manufacturer in Malaysia. MSD data were collected by conducting structure interview with all participants by referring to the Cornell Musculoskeletal Disorder Questionnaire (CMDQ). Those production team members who achieved a total discomfort score for all body regions more than 100 was selected for job task assessment. The physical exposure risk factors of work related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSD) has evaluated by using Quick Exposure Check (QEC) techniques. The results of the study identified the severe MSD associated with production assembly team members. It is expected that the prevalence of MSD for those production assembly team members was lower back (75.4%), upper back (63.2%), right shoulder (61.4%), and right wrist (60%). The QEC analysis discovered that about 70% of job tasks had very high risks for neck posture and 60% had high risks for the back (in moving condition) and shoulder/arm postures. There were 80% of respondents have produced a high score for exposure risk to vibration. As a conclusion, the main implication of the current study is that special attention should be paid to the physical and psychosocial aspects in production team members with musculoskeletal discomfort to improve their safety, health, and well-being, maintain work ability and productivity.
Awareness and Perceptions of Food Safety Risks and Risk Management in Poultry Production and Slaughter: A Qualitative Study of Direct-Market Poultry Producers in Maryland.

Science.gov (United States)

Baron, Patrick; Frattaroli, Shannon

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to document and understand the perceptions and opinions of small-scale poultry producers who market directly to consumers about microbial food safety risks in the poultry supply chain. Between January and November 2014, we conducted semi-structured, in-depth interviews with a convenience sample of 16 owner-operators of Maryland direct-market commercial poultry farms. Three overarching thematic categories emerged from these interviews that describe: 1) characteristics of Maryland direct-market poultry production and processing; 2) microbial food safety risk awareness and risk management in small-scale poultry production, slaughter and processing; and 3) motivations for prioritizing food safety in the statewide direct-market poultry supply chain. Key informants provided valuable insights on many topics relevant to evaluating microbial food safety in the Maryland direct-market poultry supply chain, including: direct-market poultry production and processing practices and models, perspectives on issues related to food safety risk management, perspectives on direct-market agriculture economics and marketing strategies, and ideas for how to enhance food safety at the direct-market level of the Maryland poultry supply chain. The findings have policy implications and provide insights into food safety in small-scale commercial poultry production, processing, distribution and retail. In addition, the findings will inform future food safety research on the small-scale US poultry supply chain.

Awareness and Perceptions of Food Safety Risks and Risk Management in Poultry Production and Slaughter: A Qualitative Study of Direct-Market Poultry Producers in Maryland

Science.gov (United States)

Baron, Patrick; Frattaroli, Shannon

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to document and understand the perceptions and opinions of small-scale poultry producers who market directly to consumers about microbial food safety risks in the poultry supply chain. Between January and November 2014, we conducted semi-structured, in-depth interviews with a convenience sample of 16 owner-operators of Maryland direct-market commercial poultry farms. Three overarching thematic categories emerged from these interviews that describe: 1) characteristics of Maryland direct-market poultry production and processing; 2) microbial food safety risk awareness and risk management in small-scale poultry production, slaughter and processing; and 3) motivations for prioritizing food safety in the statewide direct-market poultry supply chain. Key informants provided valuable insights on many topics relevant to evaluating microbial food safety in the Maryland direct-market poultry supply chain, including: direct-market poultry production and processing practices and models, perspectives on issues related to food safety risk management, perspectives on direct-market agriculture economics and marketing strategies, and ideas for how to enhance food safety at the direct-market level of the Maryland poultry supply chain. The findings have policy implications and provide insights into food safety in small-scale commercial poultry production, processing, distribution and retail. In addition, the findings will inform future food safety research on the small-scale US poultry supply chain. PMID:27341034
Awareness and Perceptions of Food Safety Risks and Risk Management in Poultry Production and Slaughter: A Qualitative Study of Direct-Market Poultry Producers in Maryland.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrick Baron

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to document and understand the perceptions and opinions of small-scale poultry producers who market directly to consumers about microbial food safety risks in the poultry supply chain. Between January and November 2014, we conducted semi-structured, in-depth interviews with a convenience sample of 16 owner-operators of Maryland direct-market commercial poultry farms. Three overarching thematic categories emerged from these interviews that describe: 1 characteristics of Maryland direct-market poultry production and processing; 2 microbial food safety risk awareness and risk management in small-scale poultry production, slaughter and processing; and 3 motivations for prioritizing food safety in the statewide direct-market poultry supply chain. Key informants provided valuable insights on many topics relevant to evaluating microbial food safety in the Maryland direct-market poultry supply chain, including: direct-market poultry production and processing practices and models, perspectives on issues related to food safety risk management, perspectives on direct-market agriculture economics and marketing strategies, and ideas for how to enhance food safety at the direct-market level of the Maryland poultry supply chain. The findings have policy implications and provide insights into food safety in small-scale commercial poultry production, processing, distribution and retail. In addition, the findings will inform future food safety research on the small-scale US poultry supply chain.
Evaluation of sustainable supply chain risk management using an integrated fuzzy TOPSIS- CRITIC approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rostamzadeh, Reza; Ghorabaee, Mehdi Keshavarz; Govindan, Kannan

2018-01-01

Supply chain risk management research has mainly mistreated the important of sustainability issues. Moreover, there is little knowledge about sustainable management of risk and supply chain and the way they impose losses for firms. Risk management's duty in the supply chain is to identify, analyze......, and provide solutions for accountability, control and monitor the risks in the economic and production cycle. This study aims to develop a framework for the sustainable supply chain risk management (SSCRM) evaluation. To this end, an integrated fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach is proposed...... based on the technique in order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation (CRITIC) methods. The literature was reviewed and the potential criteria were identified. Through an expert panel the criteria were filtered. Seven main...
Evaluating risk management strategies in resource planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andrews, C.J.

1995-01-01

This paper discusses the evaluation of risk management strategies as a part of integrated resource planning. Value- and scope-related uncertainties can be addressed during the process of planning, but uncertainties in the operating environment require technical analysis within planning models. Flexibility and robustness are two key classes of strategies for managing the risk posed by these uncertainties. This paper reviews standard capacity expansion planning models and shows that they are poorly equipped to compare risk management strategies. Those that acknowledge uncertainty are better at evaluating robustness than flexibility, which implies a bias against flexible options. Techniques are available to overcome this bias
Qualitative Assessment for Toxoplasma gondii Exposure Risk Associated with Meat Products in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Miao; Buchanan, Robert L; Dubey, Jitender P; Hill, Dolores E; Lambertini, Elisabetta; Ying, Yuqing; Gamble, H Ray; Jones, Jeffrey L; Pradhan, Abani K

2015-12-01

Toxoplasma gondii is a global protozoan parasite capable of infecting most warm-blooded animals. Although healthy adult humans generally have no symptoms, severe illness does occur in certain groups, including congenitally infected fetuses and newborns, immunocompromised individuals including transplant patients. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that consumption of raw or undercooked meat products is one of the major sources of infection with T. gondii. The goal of this study was to develop a framework to qualitatively estimate the exposure risk to T. gondii from various meat products consumed in the United States. Risk estimates of various meats were analyzed by a farm-to-retail qualitative assessment that included evaluation of farm, abattoir, storage and transportation, meat processing, packaging, and retail modules. It was found that exposure risks associated with meats from free-range chickens, nonconfinement-raised pigs, goats, and lamb are higher than those from confinement-raised pigs, cattle, and caged chickens. For fresh meat products, risk at the retail level was similar to that at the farm level unless meats had been frozen or moisture enhanced. Our results showed that meat processing, such as salting, freezing, commercial hot air drying, long fermentation times, hot smoking, and cooking, are able to reduce T. gondii levels in meat products. whereas nitrite and/or nitrate, spice, low pH, and cold storage have no effect on the viability of T. gondii tissue cysts. Raw-fermented sausage, cured raw meat, meat that is not hot-air dried, and fresh processed meat were associated with higher exposure risks compared with cooked meat and frozen meat. This study provides a reference for meat management control programs to determine critical control points and serves as the foundation for future quantitative risk assessments.
Multicriteria Evaluation of Product Quality

OpenAIRE

Pabedinskaitė, Arnoldina; Vitkauskas, Romualdas

2009-01-01

Product quality assessment is a complex task. The aim of this paper is to analyse the concepts of quality, different quality management models and their interaction with knowledge management models and the presented criteria system for assessing product quality. Moreover, multicriteria methods and their applicability to assessment of the product quality are analysed. On the basis of group of the product quality criteria and using the multicriteria evaluation methods, the quality of the produc...
Profit and Risk Measures in Oil Production Optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Capolei, Andrea; Foss, Bjarne; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

2015-01-01

In oil production optimization, we usually aim to maximize a deterministic scalar performance index such as the profit over the expected reservoir lifespan. However, when uncertainty in the parameters is considered, the profit results in a random variable that can assume a range of values dependi...... pro and cons for each of them. Finally, among the presented risk measures, we identify two of them as appropriate risk measures when minimizing the risk....
Health Risk Assessment on Hazardous Ingredients in Household Deodorizing Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minjin Lee

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The inhalation of a water aerosol from a humidifier containing disinfectants has led to serious lung injuries in Korea. To promote the safe use of products, the Korean government enacted regulations on the chemicals in various consumer products that could have adverse health effects. Given the concern over the potential health risks associated with the hazardous ingredients in deodorizing consumer products, 17 ingredients were analyzed and assessed according to their health risk on 3 groups by the application type in 47 deodorizing products. The risk assessment study followed a stepwise procedure (e.g., collecting toxicological information, hazard identification/exposure assessment, and screening and detailed assessment for inhalation and dermal routes. The worst-case scenario and maximum concentration determined by the product purpose and application type were used as the screening assessment. In a detailed assessment, the 75th exposure factor values were used to estimate the assumed reasonable exposure to ingredients. The exposed concentrations of seven ingredients were calculated. Due to limitation of toxicity information, butylated hydroxyl toluene for a consumer’s exposure via the dermal route only was conducted for a detailed assessment. This study showed that the assessed ingredients have no health risks at their maximum concentrations in deodorizing products. This approach can be used to establish guidelines for ingredients that may pose inhalation and dermal hazards.
Health Risk Assessment on Hazardous Ingredients in Household Deodorizing Products

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Minjin; Kim, Joo-Hyon; Lee, Daeyeop; Kim, Jaewoo; Lim, Hyunwoo; Seo, Jungkwan; Park, Young-Kwon

2018-01-01

The inhalation of a water aerosol from a humidifier containing disinfectants has led to serious lung injuries in Korea. To promote the safe use of products, the Korean government enacted regulations on the chemicals in various consumer products that could have adverse health effects. Given the concern over the potential health risks associated with the hazardous ingredients in deodorizing consumer products, 17 ingredients were analyzed and assessed according to their health risk on 3 groups by the application type in 47 deodorizing products. The risk assessment study followed a stepwise procedure (e.g., collecting toxicological information, hazard identification/exposure assessment, and screening and detailed assessment for inhalation and dermal routes). The worst-case scenario and maximum concentration determined by the product purpose and application type were used as the screening assessment. In a detailed assessment, the 75th exposure factor values were used to estimate the assumed reasonable exposure to ingredients. The exposed concentrations of seven ingredients were calculated. Due to limitation of toxicity information, butylated hydroxyl toluene for a consumer’s exposure via the dermal route only was conducted for a detailed assessment. This study showed that the assessed ingredients have no health risks at their maximum concentrations in deodorizing products. This approach can be used to establish guidelines for ingredients that may pose inhalation and dermal hazards. PMID:29652814
The Impacts of Country-of-origin, Product Involvement, and Product Familiarity on Product Evaluation

OpenAIRE

Nugroho, Sahid Susilo; Rostiani, Rokhima; Gitosudarmo, Indriyo

2014-01-01

One of the most interesting phenomena in global business is the existence of a product’scountry-of-origin (COO). COO as an informational cue has been proven to affect consumer’spurchasing decisions in terms of their perception towards the product’s attributes as well astheir overall evaluation of the product. The objective of this study is to investigate the impacts ofcountry-of-origin on product evaluation in the Indonesian market by considering consumers’product familiarity and consumers’ p...
A risk evaluation model and its application in online retailing trustfulness

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Ruyi; Xu, Yingcheng

2017-08-01

Building a general model for risks evaluation in advance could improve the convenience, normality and comparability of the results of repeating risks evaluation in the case that the repeating risks evaluating are in the same area and for a similar purpose. One of the most convenient and common risks evaluation models is an index system including of several index, according weights and crediting method. One method to build a risk evaluation index system that guarantees the proportional relationship between the resulting credit and the expected risk loss is proposed and an application example is provided in online retailing in this article.
ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS AT THE STAGE OF THE PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Skopenko

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The article outlines and summarizes the risks of enterprises at different stages of product life cycle. A diagnose and assess of risks according to the main stages of the product development are offered. Groups of factors that shape the economic risks at different stages of the product life cycle, by the possible negative consequences of their impact are formulated. To reduce the probable losses of the company and a reasonable assortment portfolio formation generalized classification of risks that are typical for any company is proposed.
Well-being improvement in a midsize employer: changes in well-being, productivity, health risk, and perceived employer support after implementation of a well-being improvement strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamar, Brent; Coberley, Carter; Pope, James E; Rula, Elizabeth Y

2015-04-01

To evaluate employee well-being change and associated change in productivity, health risk including biometrics, and workplace support over 2 years after implementation of a well-being improvement strategy. This was an employer case study evaluation of well-being, productivity (presenteeism, absenteeism, and job performance), health risk, and employer support across three employee assessment spanning 2 years. Employee well-being was compared with an independent sample of workers in the community. Well-being and job performance increased and presenteeism and health risk decreased significantly over the 2 years. Employee well-being started lower and increased to exceed community worker averages, approaching significance. Well-being improvement was associated with higher productivity across all measures. Increases in employer support for well-being were associated with improved well-being and productivity. This employer's well-being strategy, including a culture supporting well-being, was associated with improved health and productivity.
Climate Change, Risk and Grain Production in China

OpenAIRE

Holst, Rainer; Yu, Xiaohua; Grun, Carola

2010-01-01

This paper employs the production function-based method proposed by Just and Pope (1978, 1979) to explicitly analyze production risk in the context of Chinese grain farming and climate change, and test for potential endogeneity of climate factors in Chinese grain production. Our results indicate that grain production in south China might, at least in the short run, could be a net beneficiary of global warming. In particular, we find that a 1 °C increase in annual average temperature in South ...
Risk of water scarcity and water policy implications for crop production in the Ebro Basin in Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Quiroga, S.; Fernández-Haddad, Z.; Iglesias, A.

2010-08-01

The increasing pressure on water systems in the Mediterranean enhances existing water conflicts and threatens water supply for agriculture. In this context, one of the main priorities for agricultural research and public policy is the adaptation of crop yields to water pressures. This paper focuses on the evaluation of hydrological risk and water policy implications for food production. Our methodological approach includes four steps. For the first step, we estimate the impacts of rainfall and irrigation water on crop yields. However, this study is not limited to general crop production functions since it also considers the linkages between those economic and biophysical aspects which may have an important effect on crop productivity. We use statistical models of yield response to address how hydrological variables affect the yield of the main Mediterranean crops in the Ebro River Basin. In the second step, this study takes into consideration the effects of those interactions and analyzes gross value added sensitivity to crop production changes. We then use Montecarlo simulations to characterize crop yield risk to water variability. Finally we evaluate some policy scenarios with irrigated area adjustments that could cope in a context of increased water scarcity. A substantial decrease in irrigated land, of up to 30% of total, results in only moderate losses of crop productivity. The response is crop and region specific and may serve to prioritise adaptation strategies.
Improving the quality and content of midwives' discussions with low-risk women about their options for place of birth: Co-production and evaluation of an intervention package.

Science.gov (United States)

Henshall, Catherine; Taylor, Beck; Goodwin, Laura; Farre, Albert; Jones, Miss Eleanor; Kenyon, Sara

2018-04-01

Women's planned place of birth is gaining increasing importance in the UK, however evidence suggests that there is variation in the content of community midwives' discussions with low risk women about their place of birth options. The objective of this study was to develop an intervention to improve the quality and content of place of birth discussions between midwives and low-risk women and to evaluate this intervention in practice. The study design comprised of three stages: (1) The first stage included focus groups with midwives to explore the barriers to carrying out place of birth discussions with women. (2) In the second stage, COM-B theory provided a structure for co-produced intervention development with midwives and women representatives; priority areas for change were agreed and the components of an intervention package to standardise the quality of these discussions were decided. (3) The third stage of the study adopted a mixed methods approach including questionnaires, focus groups and interviews with midwives to evaluate the implementation of the co-produced package in practice. A maternity NHS Trust in the West Midlands, UK. A total of 38 midwives took part in the first stage of the study. Intervention design (stage 2) included 58 midwives, and the evaluation (stage 3) involved 66 midwives. Four women were involved in the intervention design stage of the study in a Patient and Public Involvement role (not formally consented as participants). In the first study stage participants agreed that pragmatic, standardised information on the safety, intervention and transfer rates for each birth setting (obstetric unit, midwifery-led unit, home) was required. In the second stage of the study, co-production between researchers, women and midwives resulted in an intervention package designed to support the implementation of these changes and included an update session for midwives, a script, a leaflet, and ongoing support through a named lead midwife and regular
Performance evaluation on aquatic product cold-chain logistics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenbing Wu

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The requirements for high quality and diversification aquatic products are increasing with the improvement of Chinese living standard. However, the distribution between place of production and place of consumption are uneven, which results in large cold-chain logistics demand for aquatic products. At present, the low-level development of cold chain logistics has a bad impact on the circulation of aquatic products in China. So it is very urgent to develop cold-chain logistics in China. Design/methodology/approach: In order to do this, we apply performance evaluation, a well-known management tool, to study Chinese aquatic product cold-chain logistics. In this paper we first propose SISP(Subjects, Indexes, Standards, and Phases of performance evaluation model and ACSSN model(Aquatic product, Customer, Supply Chain, Society, and Node enterprises of supply chain for aquatic products cold-chain logistics performance evaluation. Then an ANP-Fuzzy method is proposed to evaluate the operational performance of Shandong Oriental Ocean Sci-Tech Co., Ltd. Furthermore, a system dynamic model is built to simulate the impact of temperature on the profits in aquatic products cold-chain sales section. Findings: We find out within a reasonable temperature range, lower temperature brings higher profit level. Also, performance improvement methods are proposed and the simulation of performance evaluation system is developed. Practical implications: Our findings can help to improve the level of aquatic product cold-chain logistics in China. Originality/value: The paper proposes the SISP (Subjects, Indexes, Standards, and Phases of performance evaluation model and ACSSN model (Aquatic product, Customer, Supply Chain, Society, and Node enterprises of supply chain for aquatic products cold-chain logistics performance evaluation.
Product Evaluation Task Force Phase Two report for centrifuge cake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Francis, A.J.; Davies, A.

1990-01-01

It has been proposed that all Intermediate Level Wastes arising at Sellafield should be encapsulated prior to ultimate disposal. The Product Evaluation Task Force (PETF) was set up to investigate possible encapsulants and to produce and adequate data base to justify the preferred matrices. Three possible types of encapsulants for Centrifuge Cake;- Inorganic cements, Polymer cements, and Polymers, are evaluated using the Kepner Tregoe decision analysis technique. This technique provides a methodology for scoring and ranking alternative options and evaluating any risks associated with an option. The analysis shows that for all four stages of waste management operations ie. Storage Transport, handling and emplacement Disposal, and Process, cement matrices are considerably superior to other potential matrices. A matrix, consisting of nine parts Blast Furnace Slag (BFS) to one part Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) is recommended as the preferred matrix for Phase 3 studies on Centrifuge Cake. (author)
Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on the mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors.

Science.gov (United States)

Gabardi, Steven

2013-03-01

To review the history of risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) with the mammalian target of rapamycin (mToR) inhibitors, evaluate their required REMS elements, and delineate the reasons for them being released from their REMS requirements. Articles were identified through a literature search of MEDLINE and EMBASE (January 2007-July 2012) using the search terms: risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, everolimus, sirolimus and organ transplant (individual organs also were searched). Information from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturers of the mToR inhibitors was also evaluated. REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product. The mToR inhibitors have been associated with several potential risks, including proteinuria, graft thrombosis, and wound-healing complications. The Food and Drug Administration approved REMS programs for both sirolimus and everolimus. The manufacturers of both medications complied with the components of their approved REMS, but after less than 2 years, both medications have been relieved of their REMS obligations. The only element of the sirolimus REMS was a medication guide, whereas the everolimus REMS consisted of a medication guide and a communication plan. The sirolimus REMS was implemented more than 10 years after its initial approval by the Food and Drug Administration, but was released from its REMS requirement within 7 months of its implementation. The everolimus REMS was instituted upon initial approval and was removed approximately 2 years later. Both medications' REMS were always intended to educate health care providers and patients about the potential risks associated with this transplant immunosuppressant. Transplant practitioners should be familiar with the mToR inhibitors' associated risks and properly educate patients regarding the
Validation of Land Cover Products Using Reliability Evaluation Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenzhong Shi

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Validation of land cover products is a fundamental task prior to data applications. Current validation schemes and methods are, however, suited only for assessing classification accuracy and disregard the reliability of land cover products. The reliability evaluation of land cover products should be undertaken to provide reliable land cover information. In addition, the lack of high-quality reference data often constrains validation and affects the reliability results of land cover products. This study proposes a validation schema to evaluate the reliability of land cover products, including two methods, namely, result reliability evaluation and process reliability evaluation. Result reliability evaluation computes the reliability of land cover products using seven reliability indicators. Process reliability evaluation analyzes the reliability propagation in the data production process to obtain the reliability of land cover products. Fuzzy fault tree analysis is introduced and improved in the reliability analysis of a data production process. Research results show that the proposed reliability evaluation scheme is reasonable and can be applied to validate land cover products. Through the analysis of the seven indicators of result reliability evaluation, more information on land cover can be obtained for strategic decision-making and planning, compared with traditional accuracy assessment methods. Process reliability evaluation without the need for reference data can facilitate the validation and reflect the change trends of reliabilities to some extent.

Risk evaluation system for operational events and inspection findings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez G, A.; Godinez S, V.; Lopez M, R.

2010-10-01

The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission has developed an adaptation of the US NRC Significance Determination Process (SDP) to evaluate the risk significance of operational events and inspection findings in Laguna Verde nuclear power plant. The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission developed a plant specific flow chart for preliminary screening instead of the open questionnaire used by the US NRC-SDP, with the aim to improve the accuracy of the screening process. Also, the work sheets and support information tables required by the SDP were built up in an Excel application which allows to perform the risk evaluation in an automatic way, focusing the regulator staff efforts in the risk significance analysis instead of the risk calculation tasks. In order to construct this tool a simplified PRA model was developed and validated with the individual plant examination model. This paper shows the Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission process and some risk events evaluations performed using the Risk Evaluation System for Operational Events and Inspection Findings (SERHE, by its acronyms in Spanish). (Author)
ITERATIVE EVALUATION IN A MOBILE COUNSELING AND TESTING PROGRAM TO REACH PEOPLE OF COLOR AT RISK FOR HIV—NEW STRATEGIES IMPROVE PROGRAM ACCEPTABILITY, EFFECTIVENESS, AND EVALUATION CAPABILITIES

Science.gov (United States)

Spielberg, Freya; Kurth, Ann; Reidy, William; McKnight, Teka; Dikobe, Wame; Wilson, Charles

2016-01-01

This article highlights findings from an evaluation that explored the impact of mobile versus clinic-based testing, rapid versus central-lab based testing, incentives for testing, and the use of a computer counseling program to guide counseling and automate evaluation in a mobile program reaching people of color at risk for HIV. The program’s results show that an increased focus on mobile outreach using rapid testing, incentives and health information technology tools may improve program acceptability, quality, productivity and timeliness of reports. This article describes program design decisions based on continuous quality assessment efforts. It also examines the impact of the Computer Assessment and Risk Reduction Education computer tool on HIV testing rates, staff perception of counseling quality, program productivity, and on the timeliness of evaluation reports. The article concludes with a discussion of implications for programmatic responses to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s HIV testing recommendations. PMID:21689041
Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

2009-01-01

Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072
Technology assessment HTR. Part 6. The radiological risks associated with the thorium-fuelled High Temperature Reactor. A comparative risk evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dodd, D.H.; Van Hienen, J.F.A.

1996-06-01

This report presents the results of task B.3 of the 'Technology Assessment of the High Temperature Reactor' project. The objective of task B.3 was to evaluate the radiological risks to the general public associated with the sustainable HTGR cycle. Since the technologies to be used at several stages of this fuel cycle are still in the design phase and since a detailed specification of this fuel cycle has not yet been developed, the emphasis was on obtaining a global impression of the risk associated with a generic thorium-based HTGR fuel cycle. This impression was obtained by performing a comparative risk analysis on the basis of data given in the literature. As reference for the comparison a generic uranium fuel led LWR cycle was used. The structure of the report is as follows. In Chapter 2 the general methodology for assessing the radiological risks associated with nuclear installations is described. An overview is given of the measures commonly used to quantify these risks. In Chapter 3 an overview is given of the different stages of the reference uranium fuel led LWR cycle and the thorium fuel led HTGR cycle. In Chapter 4 a stage-by-stage analysis is given of the radiological risks associated with the two fuel cycles. Finally, in Chapter 5 an evaluation is made of the radiological risks associated with the LWR and HTGR cycles and with thorium and uranium fuels. In Appendix A the production and releases of 14 C for LWR and HTGR fuel cycle facilities is considered in detail. 11 figs., 10 tabs., 10 refs
Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

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Ming Ji

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.
A qualitative risk assessment approach for Swiss dairy products: opportunities and limitations.

Science.gov (United States)

Menéndez González, S; Hartnack, S; Berger, T; Doherr, M; Breidenbach, E

2011-05-01

Switzerland implemented a risk-based monitoring of Swiss dairy products in 2002 based on a risk assessment (RA) that considered the probability of exceeding a microbiological limit value set by law. A new RA was launched in 2007 to review and further develop the previous assessment, and to make recommendations for future risk-based monitoring according to current risks. The resulting qualitative RA was designed to ascertain the risk to human health from the consumption of Swiss dairy products. The products and microbial hazards to be considered in the RA were determined based on a risk profile. The hazards included Campylobacter spp., Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, coagulase-positive staphylococci and Staphylococcus aureus enterotoxin. The release assessment considered the prevalence of the hazards in bulk milk samples, the influence of the process parameters on the microorganisms, and the influence of the type of dairy. The exposure assessment was linked to the production volume. An overall probability was estimated combining the probabilities of release and exposure for each combination of hazard, dairy product and type of dairy. This overall probability represents the likelihood of a product from a certain type of dairy exceeding the microbiological limit value and being passed on to the consumer. The consequences could not be fully assessed due to lack of detailed information on the number of disease cases caused by the consumption of dairy products. The results were expressed as a ranking of overall probabilities. Finally, recommendations for the design of the risk-based monitoring programme and for filling the identified data gaps were given. The aims of this work were (i) to present the qualitative RA approach for Swiss dairy products, which could be adapted to other settings and (ii) to discuss the opportunities and limitations of the qualitative method. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.
Identification and Risk Treatment in Launching a New Product in the Aerospace Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vivian Eugenia da Matta

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The launch of new products resulted from investments in research and development and the need for them markets makes risk management is an important practice within companies in order to reduce the negative risks generated in the release process. The purpose of this article is to carry out studies to identify the risks involved in launching new products and forms of treatment used by the organization to deal with these risks. For this we conducted a case study in a Brazilian company that operates in the aerospace market. Information was collected through semi-structured interviews with three managers of the company. The risks identified and strategies for treating these risks have been organized into tables where risks identified for staff involved are presented. The results of the study showed that the risk management, in fact, contributes to the reduction of the negative risks that may adversely affect the process of launching new products in the market. The study identified some findings, such as the aerospace market shares for the sale of its products occur mainly in the phase prior to the production and delivery of these. The identified risks are generated by the interaction between the company and those involved in the supply chain, one of the ways of treating risk used by the company is to maintain the same relationship network, in addition to establishing rules of conduct for the supply chain. The release of new products does not occur through mass media face, since there is a specific, small market segment that has the means to buy the products. Study limitations stem from the inability to generalize the results depending on the method used and the interviews only to company officials.
Tail production and removal. Risk, challenges and possibilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Magelssen, Hans Chr.

1997-01-01

Elf is one of the companies with the longest experience as an oil operator in Norway. This presentation discusses experiences made by Elf on tail production and removal. It starts with a description of risk, economic analyses and individual cash flow discounting and then deals with the challenges and possibilities of extended use of existing installations. Elf does not use individual cash flow discounting, which has several disadvantages, but rather traditional indicators like NPV (Net Present Value), IRR (Internal Rate of Return), payback time and balance price calculated by means of cash flow, as well as a type of ROI (Return On Investment). In normal present value calculation, the decision-maker estimates the total risk for the project and compare this with a relevant present value. Another method is proposed if it is desirable to include risk directly in calculating the present value. In this method the present value is shown as a probability distribution. A probability curve is associated with the most important variables. Some of Elf's experience with tail production and removal policy is described. The tail production from a gas field is a great challenge for the operator of the field, but the other actors should also be concerned with this part of a field's lifetime. So far there is no absolute requirement that large platforms must be removed. The presentations end with some discussion about economy and production policies for the final years of a field. 3 figs
Risk-benefit evaluation of nuclear power plant siting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miettinen, J.; Savolainen, I.; Silvennoinen, P.

1976-01-01

An assessment scheme is described for the risk-benefit analyses of nuclear power versus conventional alternatives. Given the siting parameters for the proposed nuclear plant an economic comparison is made with the most advantageous competitive conventional production scenario. The economic benefit is determined from the differential discounted annual energy procurement cost as a function of the real interest rate and amortization time. The risk analysis encompasses the following factors: radiation risks in normal operation, reactor accident hazards and economic risks, atmospheric pollutants from the conventional power plants, and fuel transportation. The hazards are first considered in terms of probabilistic dose distributions. In the second stage risk components are converted to a compatible form where excess mortality is used as the risk indicator. Practical calculations are performed for the power production alternatives of Helsinki where district heat would be extracted from the nuclear power plant. At the real interest rate of 10% and amortization time of 20 yr the 1000 MW(e) nuclear option is found to be Pound9.1 m per yr more economic than the optimal conventional scenario. Simultaneously the nuclear alternative is estimated to reduce excess mortality by 2 to 5 fatal injuries annually. (author)
Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

1987-01-01

The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planing assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily
Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

1987-01-01

The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planning assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily
Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest

Science.gov (United States)

Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki

A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.
Risk as a social phenomenon.

Science.gov (United States)

Jamison, Wesley V

2003-01-01

What do nuclear power, smoking, and eating beef have in common? The answer is multifaceted. They all share aspects of mass production and consumption, and therefore consumer confidence comes into play in evaluating each of the products' merits. They all produce some level of anxiety--be it in response to adverse media coverage, or the successes of adversarial interest groups in publicizing those products' weaknesses--among consumers who wonder what if any level of the product should be consumed. Finally, nuclear power, smoking, and eating beef all share risk; that is, the perceived and real detriments of producing and consuming those products. Whether or not the associated risks--from increased cancer to increased heart disease--are real is beside the point. When talking about risk, scientific education must deal with the perception of risk as much as its reality. Risk is a socially defined phenomenon, and as such, the successful scientists/communicator must understand the social evaluations of it. While many scientists take a rational view of risk evaluation and consumers often make rational decisions about technological and scientific risk based upon the costs and benefits of that technology, this approach is problematic for three reasons. First, the nature of modern risks has changed in that risk is complex, incomprehensible and uncontrollable to the average person. Second, the rational approach assumes that all costs and benefits of a technology, both real and potential, both current and future, can be known and therefore rationally evaluated. This is not the case. Third, evidence from Europe indicates that trust in information sources about risk has fallen, and thus classic scientific education campaigns that rely upon increasing public knowledge and acceptance of technological and scientific risk are problematic. Because of these factors we argue that effective scientific response must begin to understand the social components of risk if campaigns to shape
SHDAS Production Seismometer Evaluation.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Slad, George William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Merchant, Bion J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-11-01

The Seismo - Hydroacoustic Data Acquisition System (SHDAS) is undergoing evaluation in preparation for its engineering, development, and deployment by the U.S Navy as an ocean bottom seismic monitoring system. At the current stage of development, the production seismometers are being evaluated to confirm their performance prior to packaging and assembly for deployment. The testing of the seismometers is being conducted at the Pinon Flats Observatory (PFO) , supervised by Sandia National Laboratories, U.S Navy, and RP Kromer Consulting. SNL will conduct evaluation of the collected seismometer data and comment on the performance of the seismometers.
Global Production Planning Process considering the Supply Risk of Overseas Manufacturing Sites

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hosang Jung

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Although global manufacturers can produce most of their final products in local plants, they need to source components or parts from desirable overseas manufacturing partners at low cost in order to fulfill customer orders. In this global manufacturing environment, capacity information for planning is usually imprecise owing to the various risks of overseas plants (e.g., foreign governments’ policies and labor stability. It is therefore not easy for decision-makers to generate a global production plan showing the production amounts at local plants and overseas manufacturing facilities operated by manufacturing partners. In this paper, we present a new global production planning process considering the supply risk of overseas manufacturing sites. First, local experts estimate the supply capacity of an overseas plant using their judgment to determine when the risk could occur and how large the risk impact would be. Next, we run a global production planning model with the estimated supply capacities. The proposed process systematically adopts the qualitative judgments of local experts in the global production planning process and thus can provide companies with a realistic global production plan. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed process with a real world case.
Chemical and radiological risk factors associated with waste from energy production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, T.; Fuglestvedt, J.; Benestad, C.

1992-01-01

We have tried to estimate the toxic potential of waste from nuclear power plants and from power plants burning fossil fuels. The potential risks have been expressed as 'risk potentials' or 'person equivalents'. These are purely theoretical units and represent only an attempt to quantify...... and one has to accept a certain small risk by accepting the concentration limit. This is in line with the establishment of limits for radiation. Waste products from coal combustion have the highest potential risk among the fossil fuel alternatives. The highest risk is caused by metals, and the fly ash...... represents the effluent stream giving the largest contribution to the potential risk. The waste from nuclear power production has a lower potential risk than coal if today's limit values are used. If one adjusts the limits for radiation dose and the concentration limit values so that a similar risk...
Risk management and energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlevaro, F.; Romerio, F.

1992-01-01

In five sessions the following topics were dealt with: risk problems, risk analysis and evaluation tools, risks in industrial societies, risks of energy production, technological risks, ethics and political-social consensus. figs., tabs., refs
Assessment of three risk evaluation systems for patients aged ≥70 in East China: performance of SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

Science.gov (United States)

Shan, Lingtong; Ge, Wen; Pu, Yiwei; Cheng, Hong; Cang, Zhengqiang; Zhang, Xing; Li, Qifan; Xu, Anyang; Wang, Qi; Gu, Chang; Zhang, Yangyang

2018-01-01

To assess and compare the predictive ability of three risk evaluation systems (SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system) in patients aged ≥70, and who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in East China. Three risk evaluation systems were applied to 1,946 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG from January 2004 to September 2016 in two hospitals. Patients were divided into two subsets according to their age: elderly group (age ≥70) with a younger group (age evaluation system were 0.78(0.64)%, 1.43(1.14)% and 0.78(0.77)%, respectively. SinoSCORE achieved the best discrimination (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.829), followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = 0.790) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.769) in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, the observed mortality rate was 4.82% while it was 1.38% in the younger group. SinoSCORE (AUC = .829) also achieved the best discrimination in the elderly group, followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = .730) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.640) while all three risk evaluation systems all had good performances in the younger group. SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system all achieved positive calibrations in the entire cohort and subsets. The performance of the three risk evaluation systems was not ideal in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, SinoSCORE appeared to achieve better predictive efficiency than EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.
Risk of Children’s Dermal Exposure to Galaxolide through Personal Care Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrícia Correia

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Galaxolide is the most used fragrance since the early 1990s, and it has been largely detected in environmental and biological matrices. This polycyclic musk is present in almost all of our daily products, so the risk of human exposure is substantial, as it had been proved by its detection in human tissues and fluids. Due to the lack of information about the concentrations found in consumer products, monitoring data is needed for exposure assessment purposes. Dermal contact, mostly by personal care products, seems to be the major route of human exposure to galaxolide, and, due to the immaturity of young children’s skin, exposure consequences can be worse in this population. The main objective of this study was to evaluate galaxolide levels in personal care products used by children of Oporto (Portugal, aged 0–5 years, and relate it with consumer habits. Consumer patterns were obtained through 250 questionnaires to caregivers of Oporto children. The 79 most used products were extracted by a dispersive solid phase extraction methodology known as QuEChERS and galaxolide was determined by High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC with fluorescence detection. The concentrations ranged between 0.001 ± 0.001 mg·kg−1, on a baby wipe, and 300.480 ± 8.819 mg·kg−1, on glycerin soap, which may correspond to an estimated daily dermal exposure of 277.10 ± 0.02 µg·day−1 on the population of Oporto children. This value is in the range of the results observed for adults, although no information of toxicological risk for children is available.
[Chemical risk in farming].

Science.gov (United States)

Moretto, Angelo

2013-01-01

The most important chemical risks in agriculture are plant protection products. Exposure evaluation in agriculture is not an easy task and cannot be carried out with the tools and methodologies of industrial exposures. However, toxicological studies on plant protection products, that are compulsory, provide a lot of useful information for actual risk assessment. Exposure evaluation can be carried out on the basis of exposure models and on semiquantitative measures based on the observation of the activity as it is carried our by the farmer. It is therefore possible to develop risk profiles that can guide exposure evaluation and health surveillance. Concentrated animal feeding operations are associated with several chemical risks including disinfectants, antibiotics, and gases such as ammonia and hydrogen sulfide, in addition to organic dusts and endotoxins.

Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

2012-01-01

Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...
Maternal Use of Weight Loss Products and the Risk of Neural Tube Defects in Offspring: A Systematic Literature Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoang, Thanh T; Agopian, A J; Mitchell, Laura E

2018-01-15

Several studies have assessed potential associations between use of weight loss products in the periconceptional period and neural tube defects (NTDs). However, the individual studies are inconclusive and there has not been a systematic review of this literature. We conducted a systematic search, using Ovid MEDLINE and PubMed, to identify studies that evaluated the association between products used for weight loss and the risk of NTDs. Because many studies of birth defects only evaluate a composite birth defect outcome, we evaluated studies that defined the outcome as "any major birth defect" or as NTDs. We abstracted data on study design, exposure definition, outcome definition, covariates and effect size estimates from each article that met our inclusion criteria. For studies that evaluated a composite birth defect outcome, we also abstracted the number of NTD cases included in the composite outcome. We used a modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the quality of each article. We screened 865 citations and identified nine articles that met our inclusion criteria. The majority of studies reported positive associations between maternal use of weight loss products and birth defects (overall and NTDs). However, there were few significant associations and there was considerable heterogeneity in the specific exposures assessed across the nine studies. Our systematic review of weight loss products and NTDs indicates that the literature on this topic is sparse. Because several studies reported modest, positive associations between risk and use of weight loss products, additional studies are warranted. Birth Defects Research 110:48-55, 2018. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Principles for the risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms and their food products in the European Union.

Science.gov (United States)

Aguilera, Jaime; Gomes, Ana R; Olaru, Irina

2013-10-01

Genetically modified microorganisms (GMMs) are involved in the production of a variety of food and feed. The release and consumption of these products can raise questions about health and environmental safety. Therefore, the European Union has different legislative instruments in place in order to ensure the safety of such products. A key requirement is to conduct a scientific risk assessment as a prerequisite for the product to be placed on the market. This risk assessment is performed by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), through its Scientific Panels. The EFSA Panel on Genetically Modified Organisms has published complete and comprehensive guidance for the risk assessment of GMMs and their products for food and/or feed use, in which the strategy and the criteria to conduct the assessment are explained, as well as the scientific data to be provided in applications for regulated products. This Guidance follows the main risk assessment principles developed by various international organisations (Codex Alimentarius, 2003; OECD, 2010). The assessment considers two aspects: the characterisation of the GMM and the possible effects of its modification with respect to safety, and the safety of the product itself. Due to the existing diversity of GMMs and their products, a categorisation is recommended to optimise the assessment and to determine the extent of the required data. The assessment starts with a comprehensive characterisation of the GMM, covering the recipient/parental organism, the donor(s) of the genetic material, the genetic modification, and the final GMM and its phenotype. Evaluation of the composition, potential toxicity and/or allergenicity, nutritional value and environmental impact of the product constitute further cornerstones of the process. The outcome of the assessment is reflected in a scientific opinion which indicates whether the product raises any safety issues. This opinion is taken into account by the different European regulatory
EPHECT III: Health risk assessment of exposure to household consumer products.

Science.gov (United States)

Trantallidi, M; Dimitroulopoulou, C; Wolkoff, P; Kephalopoulos, S; Carrer, P

2015-12-01

In the framework of the EU EPHECT project (Emissions, Exposure Patterns and Health Effects of Consumer Products in the EU), irritative and respiratory effects were assessed in relation to acute (30-min) and long-term (24-h) inhalation exposure to key and emerging indoor air pollutants emitted during household use of selected consumer products. A detailed Health Risk Assessment (HRA) was performed for five selected pollutants of respiratory health relevance, namely acrolein, formaldehyde, naphthalene, d-limonene and α-pinene. For each pollutant, the Critical Exposure Limit (CEL) was compared to indoor air concentrations and exposure estimates for the use of 15 selected consumer products by two population groups (housekeepers and retired people) in the four geographical regions of Europe (North, West, South, East), which were derived previously based on microenvironmental modelling. For the present HRA, health-based CELs were derived for certain compounds in case indoor air quality guidelines were not available by the World Health Organization for end-points relevant to the current study. For each pollutant, the highest indoor air concentrations in each microenvironment and exposure estimates across home microenvironments during the day were lower than the corresponding acute and long-term CELs. However, considerable contributions, especially to acute exposures, were obtained in some cases, such as formaldehyde emissions resulting from single product use of a floor cleaning agent (82% CEL), a candle (10% CEL) and an electric air freshener (17% CEL). Regarding multiple product use, the case of 30-min formaldehyde exposure reaching 34% CEL when eight product classes were used across home microenvironments, i.e. all-purpose/kitchen/floor cleaning agents, furniture/floor polish, combustible/electric air fresheners, and perfume, needs to be highlighted. Such estimated values should be evaluated with caution, as these may be attributed to the exposure scenarios
Country-of-origin effects on consumer product evaluations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verlegh, Peeter W J

2001-01-01

This thesis aims to gain a better understanding of the influence of the country-of-origin of products on consumers' product evaluation. A literature study and meta-analysis reveal a multitude of ways in which country-of-origin can influence product evaluations. The country-of-origin has a
Characterizing risk factors for pediatric lamp oil product exposures.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheikh, S; Chang, A; Kieszak, S; Law, R; Bennett, H K W; Ernst, E; Bond, G R; Spiller, H A; Schurz-Rogers, H; Chu, A; Bronstein, A C; Schier, J G

2013-11-01

Poisonings from lamp oil ingestion continue to occur worldwide among the pediatric population despite preventive measures such as restricted sale of colored and scented lamp oils. This suggests that optimal prevention practices for unintentional pediatric exposures to lamp oil have yet to be identified and/or properly implemented. To characterize demographic, health data, and potential risk factors associated with reported exposures to lamp oil by callers to poison centers (PCs) in the US and discuss their public health implications. This was a two part study in which the first part included characterizing all exposures to a lamp oil product reported to the National Poison Data System (NPDS) with regard to demographics, exposure, health, and outcome data from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2010. Regional penetrance was calculated using NPDS data by grouping states into four regions and dividing the number of exposure calls by pediatric population per region (from the 2000 US census). Temporal analyses were performed on NPDS data by comparing number of exposures by season and around the July 4th holiday. Poisson regression was used to model the count of exposures for these analyses. In the second part of this project, in order to identify risk factors we conducted a telephone-based survey to the parents of children from five PCs in five different states. The 10 most recent lamp oil product exposure calls for each poison center were systematically selected for inclusion. Calls in which a parent or guardian witnessed a pediatric lamp oil product ingestion were eligible for inclusion. Data on demographics, exposure information, behavioral traits, and health were collected. A descriptive analysis was performed and Fisher's exact test was used to evaluate associations between variables. All analyses were conducted using SAS v9.3. Among NPDS data, 2 years was the most common patient age reported and states in the Midwestern region had the highest numbers of exposure calls compared to
Risk-benefit evaluation for large technological systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okrent, D.

1979-01-01

The related topics of risk-benefit analysis, risk analysis, and risk-acceptance criteria (How safe is safe enough) are of growing importance. An interdisciplinary study on various aspects of these topics, including applications to nuclear power, was recently completed at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), with the support of the National Science Foundation. In addition to more than 30 topical reports and various open-literature publications, a final report (UCLA-ENG-7777) to the study, titled ''A Generalized Evaluation Approach to Risk--Benefit for Large Technological Systems and Its Application to Nuclear Power'', was issued in early 1978. This article briefly summarizes portions of the final report dealing with general aspects of risk-benefit methodology, societal knowledge and perception of risk, and risk-acceptance criteria
Risk factors associated with reduced work productivity among people with chronic knee pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Agaliotis, M; Fransen, M; Bridgett, L; Nairn, L; Votrubec, M; Jan, S; Heard, R; Mackey, M

2013-09-01

To determine the burden and risk factors associated with reduced work productivity among people with chronic knee pain. A longitudinal study, nested within a randomised controlled trial (RCT) evaluating the long-term effects of dietary supplements, was conducted among people with chronic knee pain in paid employment (n = 360). Participants recorded days off work (absenteeism) and reduced productivity while at work (presenteeism) for seven days every two months over a 12-month period in a study specific diary. Examined risk factors included knee pain severity, occupational group, radiographic disease severity, physical activity, body mass index (BMI), health-related quality of life (SF-12) and co-morbidity. Over the 12-month follow up period, 50 (14%) participants reported one or more days off work due to knee problems, while 283 (79%) reported reduced productivity while at work (presenteeism absenteeism was having an SF-12 Mental Component Summary (MCS) score labour (OR: 2.23 [1.09-4.59]) or manual labour (OR: 6.40 [1.44-28.35]) or a high maximum knee pain (4-6 out of 10) (OR: 2.29 [1.17-4.46]). This longitudinal study found that among this cohort of people with chronic knee pain, the burden of reduced work productivity is mainly attributable to presenteeism rather absenteeism. This study demonstrated that effective strategies to increase work productivity should focus on reducing knee pain or physical disability especially among workers in manual or semi-manual labour. © 2013 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Managing Risk, Reducing Vulnerability and Enhancing Productivity ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Managing Risk, Reducing Vulnerability and Enhancing Productivity under a Changing Climate. The countries of the Greater Horn of Africa are particularly vulnerable to drought, exacerbated by widespread poverty and dependence on rainfed agriculture. Even with normal rainfall, the region does not produce enough food to ...
ARIES Oxide Production Program Assessment of Risk to Long-term Sustainable Production Rate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Whitworth, Julia [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Lloyd, Jane Alexandria [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Majors, Harry W. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2017-05-04

This report describes an assessment of risks and the development of a risk watch list for the ARIES Oxide Production Program conducted in the Plutonium Facility at LANL. The watch list is an active list of potential risks and opportunities that the management team periodically considers to maximize the likelihood of program success. The initial assessments were made in FY 16. The initial watch list was reviewed in September 2016. The initial report was not issued. Revision 1 has been developed based on management review of the original watch list and includes changes that occurred during FY-16.
Principle considerations for the risk assessment of sprayed consumer products.

Science.gov (United States)

Steiling, W; Bascompta, M; Carthew, P; Catalano, G; Corea, N; D'Haese, A; Jackson, P; Kromidas, L; Meurice, P; Rothe, H; Singal, M

2014-05-16

In recent years, the official regulation of chemicals and chemical products has been intensified. Explicitly for spray products enhanced requirements to assess the consumers'/professionals' exposure to such product type have been introduced. In this regard the Aerosol-Dispensers-Directive (75/324/EEC) with obligation for marketing aerosol dispensers, and the Cosmetic-Products-Regulation (1223/2009/EC) which obliges the insurance of a safety assessment, have to be mentioned. Both enactments, similar to the REACH regulation (1907/2006/EC), require a robust chemical safety assessment. From such assessment, appropriate risk management measures may be identified to adequately control the risk of these chemicals/products to human health and the environment when used. Currently, the above-mentioned regulations lack the guidance on which data are needed for preparing a proper hazard analysis and safety assessment of spray products. Mandatory in the process of inhalation risk and safety assessment is the determination and quantification of the actual exposure to the spray product and more specifically, its ingredients. In this respect the current article, prepared by the European Aerosol Federation (FEA, Brussels) task force "Inhalation Toxicology", intends to introduce toxicological principles and the state of the art in currently available exposure models adapted for typical application scenarios. This review on current methodologies is intended to guide safety assessors to better estimate inhalation exposure by using the most relevant data. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.
User Experience Evaluation Methods in Product Development (UXEM'09)

Science.gov (United States)

Roto, Virpi; Väänänen-Vainio-Mattila, Kaisa; Law, Effie; Vermeeren, Arnold

High quality user experience (UX) has become a central competitive factor of product development in mature consumer markets [1]. Although the term UX originated from industry and is a widely used term also in academia, the tools for managing UX in product development are still inadequate. A prerequisite for designing delightful UX in an industrial setting is to understand both the requirements tied to the pragmatic level of functionality and interaction and the requirements pertaining to the hedonic level of personal human needs, which motivate product use [2]. Understanding these requirements helps managers set UX targets for product development. The next phase in a good user-centered design process is to iteratively design and evaluate prototypes [3]. Evaluation is critical for systematically improving UX. In many approaches to UX, evaluation basically needs to be postponed until the product is fully or at least almost fully functional. However, in an industrial setting, it is very expensive to find the UX failures only at this phase of product development. Thus, product development managers and developers have a strong need to conduct UX evaluation as early as possible, well before all the parts affecting the holistic experience are available. Different types of products require evaluation on different granularity and maturity levels of a prototype. For example, due to its multi-user characteristic, a community service or an enterprise resource planning system requires a broader scope of UX evaluation than a microwave oven or a word processor that is meant for a single user at a time. Before systematic UX evaluation can be taken into practice, practical, lightweight UX evaluation methods suitable for different types of products and different phases of product readiness are needed. A considerable amount of UX research is still about the conceptual frameworks and models for user experience [4]. Besides, applying existing usability evaluation methods (UEMs) without
Evaluation of allowed outage times (AOTS) from a risk and reliability standpoint

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.

1989-08-01

This report describes the basic risks associated with allowed outage times (AOTS), defines strategies for selecting the risks to be quantified, and describes how the risks can be quantified. This report provides a basis for risk-based approaches for regulatory and plant implementation. The AOT risk evaluations can be applied to proposed one-time AOT changes, or to permanent changes. The evaluations can also be used to quantify risks associated with present AOTs, and in establishing AOTs from a risk perspective. The report shows that the standard way of calculating AOT risks in probabilistic risk analyses (PRAs) generally is not sufficient when evaluating all the risks associated with an AOT in order to assess its acceptability. The PRA calculates an average AOT risk which includes the frequency at which the AOT is expected to occur. Other risks associated with an AOT include the single downtime risk, which is the risk incurred when (given) the AOT has occurred. The single downtime risk is generally the most applicable risk in determining the acceptability of the AOT. The single downtime risks are generally much larger than the PRA-averaged risk. For more comprehensive evaluations, both risks should be calculated. The report also describes other risks which can be considered, including personnel and economic risks. Finally, the report discusses the detailed evaluations which are involved in calculating AOT risks, including considerations of uncertainty. (author)
Subclinical ketosis in dairy cows: prevalence and risk factors in grazing production system.

Science.gov (United States)

Garro, C J; Mian, L; Cobos Roldán, M

2014-10-01

The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence of Subclinical ketosis (SCK) between 4 and 19 days in milk (DIM) in a grazing production system and investigate the importance of potential risk factors for SCK. This cross-sectional study was conducted in dairy cows (n = 107), which had more of two parities. The concentration of β-hydroxybutyric (BHB) in blood was quantified through a hand-held meter. Potential risk factors evaluated were calving interval (CI), milk yield in previous lactation, metritis, dystocia, calf sex (male), parity (≤3 vs. ≥4) and pre-partum body condition score (BCS ≤ 3.5 vs. ≥3.75). Prevalence of SCK was 10.3% (95% CI 4.7-15) between 4 and 19 DIM. Risk factors identified were the occurrence of both metritis and pre-partum BCS ≥ 3.75. Cows with metritis had 4.9 (95% CI 1.17-20.98) times more risk of developing SCK than cows without metritis. And the cows with pre-partum BCS ≥ 3.75 had 5.25 (95% CI 1.32-21.11) times more risk of developing SCK than cows with pre-partum BCS ≤ 3.5. Metritis could induce a lower feed intake and promote the development of SCK. High pre-partum BCS could induce a greater mobilization of body reserves altering liver function and aggravating post-partum NEB. The results are indicative of the expected prevalence of SCK in grazing production system. Factors associated could help to identify cattle at risk of SCK and improve the management of strategies to limit the effects. Journal of Animal Physiology and Animal Nutrition © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.
Risks arising during manipulation with radiologically specific products of biotechnical production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitrovic, R.; Vukovic, D.; Vicentijevic, M.; Kljajic, R.

1998-01-01

Objective of this study was to review the risk of exposure to radiocaesium (134+137Cs), which biologically presents the most toxic radionuclide, of people engaged in the process of supervision, transport and storage of the radiologically specific products, like concentrated protein feedstuff (fish meal, powdered milk), wool, cow hide and chamois. The discussion is based on the results of a radiological-hygienic analysis of these products in the context of veterinary-sanitary control, performed in the authorized referent Laboratory for Radiation Hygiene (LABRAH) at the Scientific Institute for Veterinary Medicine of Serbia in Belgrade (Yugoslavia)
Investigations regarding the lowering of specific intellectual property risks identified in the production process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pakocs Ramona

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of this research is to decrease the emergence of specific intellectual property risks within the production process as well as increasing risk management performance of IP by preventing them. In order to achieve this, previous studies regarding the main specific intellectual property risks from industrial companies were analyzed together with their managerial methods as well as the possibility of reducing their emergence. As a result of the research conducted were identified five types of intellectual property risks that have a high potential of emergence in the production process, namely: the risk of production of goods in violation of IP rights; the know-how, production knowledge and trade secret disclosure risk; the technological risk of unprotected utility models; the technological risk of unprotected integrated circuits topographies and finally the risk of product counterfeit. In order to achieve the main purpose of our investigation, we have proposed new formulas for estimating the specific intellectual property risks identified in the production process. Their purpose was to minimalize the risk’s negative effects on industrial companies and to increase the managerial performance from the intellectual property domain through a new type of management appropriately named: intellectual property management. The research is finalized with a case study regarding the lapse of rights of a patented invention. Based on a case analysis, it was proved that the exploitation of an invention without a contract represents a counterfeit.
Ergonomics Risk Assessment with Participation of Supervisors in Production Line: a Successful Experience in Pars Khodro Company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adel Mazloumi

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Background & Objectives: According to previous researches, workers' participation in issues affecting their working condition is the key to success in ergonomics interventions in working environments. Therefore, the present study was performed to increase active particapitation of supervisors in production line and also to identify and assess ergonomics risks and presenting modification actions (Kaizen by themselves in Pars Khodro automobile manufacturing company. Methods: A manual regarding lifting objects and body postures, according to the Finish evaluation method, was provided for supervisors in production line and related trainings were presented to them. Then, they were asked to insert the results of their assessments and suggestions in special forms during one year. The presented assessments and suggestions were examined by ergonomics experts. Results: According to the assessments conducted by supervisors, 26 work stations had high ergonomics risks, 51 had ergonomics risks with an average level, and 45 had low ergonomics risks. Moreover, the number of required Kaizens presented by supervisors was increased from 18 cases in the first year to 42 cases in the second year, after implementation of ergonomics training and identifying and assessing ergonomic risks by supervisors. Conclusion: Empowering and training supervisors increased workers' participation. In case of adequate training, supervisors can present practical solutions to reduce ergonomics risks in their workstations.
Analysis of the effect of risk management practices on the performance of new product development programs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Oehmen, Josef; Olechowski, Alison; Kenley, C. Robert

2014-01-01

Risk management is receiving much attention, as it is seen as a method to improve cost, schedule, and technical performance of new product development programs. However, there is a lack of empirical research that investigates the effective integration of specific risk management practices proposed...... skills and resources; (2) Tailor risk management to and integrate it with new product development; (3) Quantify impacts of risks on your main objectives; (4) Support all critical decisions with risk management results; (5) Monitor and review your risks, risk mitigation actions, and risk management...... by various standards with new product development programs and their association with various dimensions of risk management success. Based on a survey of 291 product development programs, this paper investigates the association of risk management practices with five categories of product development program...
A comparative evaluation of the regulation of GM crops or products containing dsRNA and suggested improvements to risk assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Heinemann, Jack A; Agapito-Tenfen, Sarah Zanon; Carman, Judy A

2013-05-01

Changing the nature, kind and quantity of particular regulatory-RNA molecules through genetic engineering can create biosafety risks. While some genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are intended to produce new regulatory-RNA molecules, these may also arise in other GMOs not intended to express them. To characterise, assess and then mitigate the potential adverse effects arising from changes to RNA requires changing current approaches to food or environmental risk assessments of GMOs. We document risk assessment advice offered to government regulators in Australia, New Zealand and Brazil during official risk evaluations of GM plants for use as human food or for release into the environment (whether for field trials or commercial release), how the regulator considered those risks, and what that experience teaches us about the GMO risk assessment framework. We also suggest improvements to the process. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
[Hygienic evaluation of risk factors on powder metallurgy production].

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Complex hygienic, clinical, sociologic and epidemiologic studies revealed reliable relationship between work conditions and arterial hypertension, locomotory system disorders, monocytosis in powder metallurgy production workers. Findings are more probable cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, digestive tract diseases due to influence of lifestyle factors.

Time-explicit methods for joint economical and geological risk mitigation in production optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Lasse Hjuler; Capolei, Andrea; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

2016-01-01

Real-life applications of production optimization face challenges of risks related to unpredictable fluctuations in oil prices and sparse geological data. Consequently, operating companies are reluctant to adopt model-based production optimization into their operations. Conventional production...... of mitigating economical and geological risks. As opposed to conventional strategies that focus on a single long-term objective, TE methods seek to reduce risks and promote returns over the entire reservoir life by optimization of a given ensemble-based geological risk measure over time. By explicit involvement...... of time, economical risks are implicitly addressed by balancing short-term and long-term objectives throughout the reservoir life. Open-loop simulations of a two-phase synthetic reservoir demonstrate that TE methods may significantly improve short-term risk measures such as expected return, standard...
SHDAS Production Digitizer Evaluation.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Merchant, Bion J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-07-01

The Seismo-Hydroacoustic Data Acquisition System (SHDAS) is undergoing evaluation in preparation for its engineering, development, and deployment by the U.S Navy as an ocean bottom seismic monitoring system. At the current stage of development, the production digitizers are being evaluated to confirm their performance prior to packaging and assembly for deployment. The testing of the digitizers is being conducted at Delta Group Electronics, the digitizer fabricator, in San Diego, California, performed by Sandia National Laboratories with the assistance of Leidos and Delta Group Electronics.
Market Microstructure Effects on Firm Default Risk Evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flavia Barsotti

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility estimators on default probability evaluation, when market microstructure noise is considered. A general stochastic volatility framework with jumps for the underlying asset dynamics is defined inside a Merton-like structural model. To estimate the volatility risk component of a firm we use high-frequency equity data: market microstructure noise is introduced as a direct effect of observing noisy high-frequency equity prices. A Monte Carlo simulation analysis is conducted to (i test the performance of alternative non-parametric equity volatility estimators in their capability of filtering out the microstructure noise and backing out the true unobservable asset volatility; (ii study the effects of different non-parametric estimation techniques on default probability evaluation. The impact of the non-parametric volatility estimators on risk evaluation is not negligible: a sensitivity analysis defined for alternative values of the leverage parameter and average jumps size reveals that the characteristics of the dataset are crucial to determine which is the proper estimator to consider from a credit risk perspective.
Association of trypanosomosis risk with dairy cattle production in western Kenya

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G.L. Mugunieri

2005-09-01

Full Text Available Dairy cattle reared in western Kenya are exposed to medium to high levels of trypanosomosis risk. The social background, farm characteristics and dairy cattle productivity of 90 and 30 randomly selected farmers from medium- and high-risk trypanosomosis areas, respectively, were compared. All the 120 farmers were visited between July and August 2002. Data analysis was performed using descriptive statistics and analysis of variance. The results showed that increased trypanosomosis risk represented by an increase in disease prevalence in cattle of 1% to 20 % decreased the density of dairy cattle by 53 % and increased the calving interval from 14 to 25 months. The increased risk was also associated with a significant increase in cattle mortalities and in a lactation period of 257 to 300 days. It was concluded that removal of the trypanosomosis constraint on dairy production would lead to expansion of dairying since the domestic demand for dairy products is expected to increase.
Productivity costs in economic evaluations: past, present, future.

Science.gov (United States)

Krol, Marieke; Brouwer, Werner; Rutten, Frans

2013-07-01

Productivity costs occur when the productivity of individuals is affected by illness, treatment, disability or premature death. The objective of this paper was to review past and current developments related to the inclusion, identification, measurement and valuation of productivity costs in economic evaluations. The main debates in the theory and practice of economic evaluations of health technologies described in this review have centred on the questions of whether and how to include productivity costs, especially productivity costs related to paid work. The past few decades have seen important progress in this area. There are important sources of productivity costs other than absenteeism (e.g. presenteeism and multiplier effects in co-workers), but their exact influence on costs remains unclear. Different measurement instruments have been developed over the years, but which instrument provides the most accurate estimates has not been established. Several valuation approaches have been proposed. While empirical research suggests that productivity costs are best included in the cost side of the cost-effectiveness ratio, the jury is still out regarding whether the human capital approach or the friction cost approach is the most appropriate valuation method to do so. Despite the progress and the substantial amount of scientific research, a consensus has not been reached on either the inclusion of productivity costs in economic evaluations or the methods used to produce productivity cost estimates. Such a lack of consensus has likely contributed to ignoring productivity costs in actual economic evaluations and is reflected in variations in national health economic guidelines. Further research is needed to lessen the controversy regarding the estimation of health-related productivity costs. More standardization would increase the comparability and credibility of economic evaluations taking a societal perspective.
Probabilistic framework for product design optimization and risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Keski-Rahkonen, J. K.

2018-05-01

Probabilistic methods have gradually gained ground within engineering practices but currently it is still the industry standard to use deterministic safety margin approaches to dimensioning components and qualitative methods to manage product risks. These methods are suitable for baseline design work but quantitative risk management and product reliability optimization require more advanced predictive approaches. Ample research has been published on how to predict failure probabilities for mechanical components and furthermore to optimize reliability through life cycle cost analysis. This paper reviews the literature for existing methods and tries to harness their best features and simplify the process to be applicable in practical engineering work. Recommended process applies Monte Carlo method on top of load-resistance models to estimate failure probabilities. Furthermore, it adds on existing literature by introducing a practical framework to use probabilistic models in quantitative risk management and product life cycle costs optimization. The main focus is on mechanical failure modes due to the well-developed methods used to predict these types of failures. However, the same framework can be applied on any type of failure mode as long as predictive models can be developed.
Approved Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 gave FDA the authority to require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) from manufacturers to...
Understanding safety and production risks in rail engineering planning and protection.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, John R; Ryan, Brendan; Schock, Alex; Ferreira, Pedro; Smith, Stuart; Pitsopoulos, Julia

2009-07-01

Much of the published human factors work on risk is to do with safety and within this is concerned with prediction and analysis of human error and with human reliability assessment. Less has been published on human factors contributions to understanding and managing project, business, engineering and other forms of risk and still less jointly assessing risk to do with broad issues of 'safety' and broad issues of 'production' or 'performance'. This paper contains a general commentary on human factors and assessment of risk of various kinds, in the context of the aims of ergonomics and concerns about being too risk averse. The paper then describes a specific project, in rail engineering, where the notion of a human factors case has been employed to analyse engineering functions and related human factors issues. A human factors issues register for potential system disturbances has been developed, prior to a human factors risk assessment, which jointly covers safety and production (engineering delivery) concerns. The paper concludes with a commentary on the potential relevance of a resilience engineering perspective to understanding rail engineering systems risk. Design, planning and management of complex systems will increasingly have to address the issue of making trade-offs between safety and production, and ergonomics should be central to this. The paper addresses the relevant issues and does so in an under-published domain - rail systems engineering work.
Risk-Optimized Design of Production Systems by Use of GRAMOSA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Lütjen

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Today production and logistic systems are getting more complex. This is a problem which the planning and design of such systems have to deal with. One main issue of production system development in series production is the planning of production processes and systems under uncertainty. New and existing production technologies are often not fully adoptable to new products. This is why some of the main characteristics, like, for example, cost, time, or quality, are not definable at the beginning. Only value ranges and probabilities can be estimated. However, the adaptation process is controllable, which means that the adaptation results are depending on the existing development budget and its resources. This paper presents an approach for the optimized allocation of development resources regarding the adaptation risks of production technologies and processes. The modeling concept GRAMOSA is used for integrated modeling and discrete event-based simulation of the aspired production system. To this end a domain-specific modeling language (DSML is applied. The further risk-based analysis of the simulation results and the optimized allocation of the development budget are done by use of mathematical optimization.
Evaluation of Projected Agricultural Climate Risk over the Contiguous US

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

2017-12-01

Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural production. Additionally, climate extremes have recently highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural system to climate variability. This study seeks to fill two important gaps in current knowledge: how does the widespread response of irrigated crops differ from rainfed and how can we best account for uncertainty in yield responses. We developed a stochastic approach to evaluate climate risk quantitatively to better understand the historical impacts of climate change and estimate the future impacts it may bring about to agricultural system. Our model consists of Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation to simulate rainfed and irrigated crop yields at the US county level. The model was fit using historical data for 1970-2010 and was then applied over different climate regions in the contiguous US using the CMIP5 climate projections. The relative importance of many major growing season climate indices, such as consecutive dry days without rainfall or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting future crop yields. The statistical modeling framework also evaluated the impact of irrigation by using county-level irrigated and rainfed yields separately. Furthermore, the projected years with negative yield anomalies were specifically evaluated in terms of magnitude, trend and potential climate drivers. This framework provides estimates of the agricultural climate risk for the 21st century that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain future climate.
Factors to consider in developing individual pharmaceutical product quality risk profiles useful to government procurement agencies.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Wei; Boehm, Garth; Zheng, Qiang

2016-01-01

Governments that procure pharmaceutical products from an Essential Medicine List (EML) bear special responsibility for the quality of these products. In this article we examine the possibility of developing a pharmaceutical product quality risk assessment scheme for use by government procurement officials. We use the Chinese EML as a basis, and US recall data is examined as it is publically available.This is justified as the article is only concerned with inherent product quality risks. After establishing a link between Chinese essential medicines and those available in the US, we examine US recall data to separate product specific recalls. We conclude that, in addition to existing manufacturing based risks, there are two other product specific risks that stand out from all others, degradation and dissolution failure. Methodology for relative product risk for degradation is needed to be developed and further work is required to better understand dissolution failures which largely occur with modified-release solid oral products. We conclude that a product specific quality risk profile would be enhanced by including a risk assessment for degradation for all products, and in the case of solid oral products, dissolution.
Weather swap as an instrument for weather risk management in wheat production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marković Todor

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A special type of weather derivatives are weather forwards and they exists mostly in the form of weather swaps. Hedging effectiveness in wheat production with and without weather swap was analyzed in this paper using stochastic dominance. The results show that the effect of risk reduction is significant using weather swap, but geographical- basis risk and production-related basis risk are important factor that reduce the utility of weather derivatives.
A quantitative screening-level approach to incorporate chemical exposure and risk into alternative assessment evaluations.

Science.gov (United States)

Arnold, Scott M; Greggs, Bill; Goyak, Katy O; Landenberger, Bryce D; Mason, Ann M; Howard, Brett; Zaleski, Rosemary T

2017-11-01

As the general public and retailers ask for disclosure of chemical ingredients in the marketplace, a number of hazard screening tools were developed to evaluate the so-called "greenness" of individual chemical ingredients and/or formulations. The majority of these tools focus only on hazard, often using chemical lists, ignoring the other part of the risk equation: exposure. Using a hazard-only focus can result in regrettable substitutions, changing 1 chemical ingredient for another that turns out to be more hazardous or shifts the toxicity burden to others. To minimize the incidents of regrettable substitutions, BizNGO describes "Common Principles" to frame a process for informed substitution. Two of these 6 principles are: "reduce hazard" and "minimize exposure." A number of frameworks have emerged to evaluate and assess alternatives. One framework developed by leading experts under the auspices of the US National Academy of Sciences recommended that hazard and exposure be specifically addressed in the same step when assessing candidate alternatives. For the alternative assessment community, this article serves as an informational resource for considering exposure in an alternatives assessment using elements of problem formulation; product identity, use, and composition; hazard analysis; exposure analysis; and risk characterization. These conceptual elements build on practices from government, academia, and industry and are exemplified through 2 hypothetical case studies demonstrating the questions asked and decisions faced in new product development. These 2 case studies-inhalation exposure to a generic paint product and environmental exposure to a shampoo rinsed down the drain-demonstrate the criteria, considerations, and methods required to combine exposure models addressing human health and environmental impacts to provide a screening level hazard and exposure (risk) analysis. This article informs practices for these elements within a comparative risk context
Managing the risks of the backfill production line from material acquisition to installation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiviranta, Leena; Kumpulainen, Sirpa; Keto, Paula; Autio, Jorma; Siivonen, Markku; Koho, Petri

2012-01-01

Document available in extended abstract form only. The tunnel backfill of Finnish KBS-3V type repository for spent nuclear fuel consists of foundation layer that is installed at site, pre-compacted backfill blocks that fill most of the tunnel and bentonite pellets to fill the gap between blocks and tunnel wall. In order to ensure the quality, availability, and timely delivery of backfill materials and components, and further to ensure the fulfillment of the requirements and specifications set for backfilling of deposition tunnels, the backfill production line was explored step-by-step, and risks related were defined and analyzed. The work described in this paper was initiated by Posiva Oy and is reported in Keto et al. (2012). The first part of the backfill production line is described in Figure 1 for Friedland clay that is designed to be used for the backfill blocks. It consists of excavation, processing and delivery of materials to backfill production facility. Second part of the production line consists of manufacturing of the backfill components, and the third part is the installation. A preliminary risk assessment was done in 2011 for the acquisition of Friedland clay and manufacturing and installation of foundation layer, blocks and pellets. The critical points of the production line were determined using a material flow description where risk is defined as a probability of something unwanted to happen times the severity of the consequences. Risk analysis was performed by going through the whole backfill production line step by step and analyzing all the incidents, which have occurred (or might occur) during the backfilling operations. A risk number from 1 to 25 was given to each step of the chain depending on how long delay the problem causes and how often it occurs. Low risk was the target for each step of the chain, medium risk was considered tolerable, for high risks management actions to decrease the risk number were considered and extremely high risks
Sustainability Risk Evaluation for Large-Scale Hydropower Projects with Hybrid Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weiyao Tang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available As large-scale hydropower projects are influenced by many factors, risk evaluations are complex. This paper considers a hydropower project as a complex system from the perspective of sustainability risk, and divides it into three subsystems: the natural environment subsystem, the eco-environment subsystem and the socioeconomic subsystem. Risk-related factors and quantitative dimensions of each subsystem are comprehensively analyzed considering uncertainty of some quantitative dimensions solved by hybrid uncertainty methods, including fuzzy (e.g., the national health degree, the national happiness degree, the protection of cultural heritage, random (e.g., underground water levels, river width, and fuzzy random uncertainty (e.g., runoff volumes, precipitation. By calculating the sustainability risk-related degree in each of the risk-related factors, a sustainable risk-evaluation model is built. Based on the calculation results, the critical sustainability risk-related factors are identified and targeted to reduce the losses caused by sustainability risk factors of the hydropower project. A case study at the under-construction Baihetan hydropower station is presented to demonstrate the viability of the risk-evaluation model and to provide a reference for the sustainable risk evaluation of other large-scale hydropower projects.
Wastes incineration and public health: status of recent knowledge and risk evaluation; L'incineration des dechets et la sante publique: bilan des connaissances recentes et evaluation du risque

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1999-07-01

The incineration of municipal and industrial wastes produces combustion products with various pollutants like: dusts, acid gases, heavy metals, nitrogen oxides, dioxines etc.. This report analyzes the toxicity of different pollutants (particulates, polycyclic halogenated compounds, cadmium, mercury, lead), the exposure of the population with respect to incineration pollutants (occupational and general exposure), and the risks linked with this exposure (hazard identification, exposure evaluation, risk characterization, results). (J.S.)
Risk Adjusted Production Efficiency of Maize Farmers in Ethiopia: Implication for Improved Maize Varieties Adoption

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sisay Diriba Lemessa

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This study analyzes the technical efficiency and production risk of 862 maize farmers in major maize producing regions of Ethiopia. It employs the stochastic frontier approach (SFA to estimate the level of technical efficiencies of stallholder farmers. The stochastic frontier approach (SFA uses flexible risk properties to account for production risk. Thus, maize production variability is assessed from two perspectives, the production risk and the technical efficiency. The study also attempts to determine the socio-economic and farm characteristics that influence technical efficiency of maize production in the study area. The findings of the study showed the existence of both production risk and technical inefficiency in maize production process. Input variables (amounts per hectare such as fertilizer and labor positively influence maize output. The findings also show that farms in the study area exhibit decreasing returns to scale. Fertilizer and ox plough days reduce output risk while labor and improved seed increase output risk. The mean technical efficiency for maize farms is 48 percent. This study concludes that production risk and technical inefficiency prevents the maize farmers from realizing their frontier output. The best factors that improve the efficiency of the maize farmers in the study area include: frequency of extension contact, access to credit and use of intercropping. It was also realized that altitude and terracing in maize farms had influence on farmer efficiency.
ABC Classification of Risk Factors in Production Supply Chains with Uncertain Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksandar Vujović

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The problem of classification of risk factors in an uncertain environment is part of the risk management problem, which has a critical effect on the competitive advantage of production supply chain. The severities of consequences, their relative importance, and the frequency of occurrence of risk factors are defined by risk management team, depending on their experience and the results of good practice. Fuzzy rating of the severities of consequences and the frequency of occurrence of risk factors are described by linguistic expressions, which are modeled by triangular fuzzy numbers. The risk values, obtained by the materialization of the identified risk factors, are given precisely with the usage of fuzzy algebra rules. The classification criterion is defined as the distance between current risk value and extreme risk values. The proposed model enables determination of the priorities of risk factors. It is illustrated by an example with real-life data from a production supply chain in auto industry.
A Decision Support System for Drinking Water Production Integrating Health Risks Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Delpla, Ianis; Monteith, Donald T.; Freeman, Chris; Haftka, Joris; Hermens, Joop; Jones, Timothy G.; Baurès, Estelle; Jung, Aude-Valérie; Thomas, Olivier

2014-01-01

The issue of drinking water quality compliance in small and medium scale water services is of paramount importance in relation to the 98/83/CE European Drinking Water Directive (DWD). Additionally, concerns are being expressed over the implementation of the DWD with respect to possible impacts on water quality from forecast changes in European climate with global warming and further anticipated reductions in north European acid emissions. Consequently, we have developed a decision support system (DSS) named ARTEM-WQ (AwaReness Tool for the Evaluation and Mitigation of drinking Water Quality issues resulting from environmental changes) to support decision making by small and medium plant operators and other water stakeholders. ARTEM-WQ is based on a sequential risk analysis approach that includes consideration of catchment characteristics, climatic conditions and treatment operations. It provides a holistic evaluation of the water system, while also assessing human health risks of organic contaminants potentially present in treated waters (steroids, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, bisphenol-a, polychlorobiphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, petrochemical hydrocarbons and disinfection by-products; n = 109). Moreover, the system provides recommendations for improvement while supporting decision making in its widest context. The tool has been tested on various European catchments and shows a promising potential to inform water managers of risks and appropriate mitigative actions. Further improvements should include toxicological knowledge advancement, environmental background pollutant concentrations and the assessment of the impact of distribution systems on water quality variation. PMID:25046634
The determination of allowed outage time using the evaluation of transition risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, D. I.; Kim, K. Y.; Jang, S. C.

2001-03-01

he objectives of this study are to propose a new evaluation method for transition risk and to determine the AOT using the new method. We review and compare the evaluation methods of transition risk which was previously studied. We also identify important assumptions used in previous studies for the evaluation of transition risk. We select general items required for the development of evaluation method for the transition risk. Based on the items selected, we propose a new evaluation method for transition risk. The new evaluation method for the transition risk is based on following assumptions; 1)For the same time span, the risk occurred from the failure to the completion of component repair during power operation is the same as the total risk including the risk occurred from power operation to specific shutdown/low power operation and the risk from specific shutdown/low power operation to power operation. 2)Shutdown operation and the repair of components are initiated just after the identification of the failure of components. The evaluation of the transition risk is performed to incorporate the characteristics of shutdown operation into Ulchin Units 3 and 4 Level 1 internal PSA for power operation. The application results of the new method to the HPSIS and the LPSIS for Ulchin Units 3 and 4 show that the AOT of HPSIS is properly determined and the AOT of LPSIS can be greatly increased. In this study, the main factors affecting the determination of AOT using the evaluation for transition risk are identified as the time of shutdown operation, the consideration of the change on common cause failure probability, and the risk of shutdown operation. It is expected that the evaluation method for the transition risk proposed in this study will be used for the determination of AOT and for the decision, in the case of the components unavailable, whether power operation is continuously performed or shutdown operation is initiated

RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FOR CRITICAL LOGISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sascha Düerkop

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Logistical infrastructure builds the backbone of an economy. Without an effective logistical infrastructure in place, the supply for both enterprises and consumers might not be met. But even a high-quality logistical infrastructure can be threatened by risks. Thus, it is important to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks for logistical infrastructure that might threaten logistical processes. Only if those risks are known and their impact estimated, decision makers can implement counteractive measures to reduce risks. In this article, we develop a network-based approach that allows for the evaluation of risks and their consequences onto the logistical network. We will demonstrate the relevance of this approach by applying it to the logistics network of the central German state of Hesse. Even though transport data is extensively tracked and recorded nowadays, typical daily risks, like accidents on a motorway, and extraordinary risks, like a bridge at risk to collapse, terrorist attacks or climate-related catastrophes, are not systematically anticipated. Several studies unveiled recently that the overall impact for an economy of possible failures of single nodes and/or edges in a network are not calculated, and particularly critical edges are not identified in advance. We address this information gap by a method that helps to identify and quantify risks in a given network. To reach this objective, we define a mathematical optimization model that quantifies the current “risk-related costs” of the overall network and quantify the risk by investigating the change of the overall costs in the case a risk is realized.
Identification of risk products for fragrance contact allergy: a case-referent study based on patients' histories.

Science.gov (United States)

Johansen, J D; Andersen, T F; Kjøller, M; Veien, N; Avnstorp, C; Andersen, K E; Menné, T

1998-06-01

Fragrances are the first or second most common cause of contact allergy in dermatitis patients. The aim of this study was to identify risk products for fragrance contact allergy. The design was a case-control study with a case group of 78 fragrance-mix-positive eczema patients and two control groups, one consisting of 1,279 subjects selected as a random sample of the general population and the other consisting of 806 fragrance-mix-negative eczema patients. The identification of risk products was based on the patients' histories of rash to scented products. Analysis of the associations between first-time rash caused by different specified product categories and fragrance mix sensitivity was performed using logistic regression. It was found that first-time rash caused by deodorant sprays and/or perfumes were related to fragrance contact allergy in a comparison with both control groups. The risk (odds ratio) of being diagnosed as fragrance allergic was 2.3 to 2.9 greater in cases of a history of first-time rash to deodorant sprays and 3.3 to 3.4 greater in cases of a history of rash to perfumes than if no such history were present. First-time rash to cleansing agents, deodorant sticks, or hand lotions was also statistically significant but only in comparison with one of the control groups. Safety evaluation of fragrance materials used in perfumes and deodorant sprays should be performed with special attention.
Risk evaluation of accident management strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dingman, S.; Camp, A.

1992-01-01

The use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods to evaluate accident management strategies in nuclear power plants discussed in this paper. The PRA framework allows an integrated evaluation to be performed to give the full implications of a particular strategy. The methodology is demonstrated for a particular accident management strategy, intentional depressurization of the reactor coolant system to avoid containment pressurization during the ejection of molten debris at vessel breach
Nondestructive quality evaluation technology of agricultural products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noh, Sang Ha

1997-01-01

Quality evaluation of agricultural products has been interested to many researchers for many years and as the result, several nondestructive techniques and so many papers have been reported for quality evaluation of agricultural products. These nondestructive techniques are based on the detection of mechanical, optical, electrical, electro-magnetical, dielectric and vibrational properties of agricultural products that are well correlated with certain quality factors of the products such as color, shape, firmness, sugar content, external or internal defects, moisture content, etc. The sophistication of nondestructive methods has evolved rapidly with modem technologies. In this paper an emphasis was put on reviewing some of those papers and techniques which could be led to on-line measurement for practical use.
Overall strategy for risk evaluation and priority setting of risk regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hokstad, Per; Steiro, Trygve

2006-01-01

This paper presents the framework of an approach to support planning and priority setting for risk control. Such an approach could assist government/regulatory authorities in their allocation of resources among different sectors. The term risk will here be used in a very wide sense, and it will include, but not restrict to, the traditional HES (Health, Environment and Safety) concept. An overall classification of risk ('loss categories'), to be used across sectors and directorates is suggested. The risk evaluation includes a number of factors not accounted for in a standard risk assessment, but should be taken into account when authorities set priorities regarding risk control. Sociological, psychological and ethical perspectives are included, and the need for a discourse during the decision process is pinpointed. The paper also discusses the potential inclusion of cost benefit analyses in such an approach. The indicated approach is denoted Risk Across Sectors (RAS), and suggestions regarding the process to implement it are given. Such an implementation process will by itself increase the knowledge and competence of the involved parties
A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

2015-01-01

Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859
Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Zernike, W; Henderson, A

1999-06-01

This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.
Evaluation of test intervals strategies with a risk monitor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soerman, J.

2005-01-01

The Swedish nuclear power utility Oskarshamn Power Group (OKG), is investigating how the use of a risk monitor can facilitate and improve risk-informed decision-making at their nuclear power plants. The intent is to evaluate if risk-informed decision-making can be accepted. A pilot project was initiated and carried out in 2004. The project included investigating if a risk monitor can be used for optimising test intervals for diesel- and gas turbine generators with regard to risk level. The Oskarhamn 2 (O2), PSA Level 1 model was converted into a risk monitor using RiskSpectrum RiskWatcher (RSRW) software. The converted PSA model included the complete PSA model for the power operation mode. RSRW then performs a complete requantification for every analysis. Time dependent reliability data are taken into account, i.e. a shorter test interval will increases the components availability (possibility to e.g. start on demand). The converted O2 model was then used to investigate whether it would be possible to balance longer test intervals for diesel generators, gas turbine generators and high pressure injection system with shorter test intervals for the low pressure injection system, while maintaining a low risk level at the plant. The results show that a new mixture of test intervals can be implemented with only marginally changes in the risk calculated with the risk monitor model. The results indicate that the total number of test activities for the systems included in the pilot study could be reduced by 20% with a maintained level of risk. A risk monitor taking into account the impact from test intervals in availability calculations for components is well suited for evaluation of test interval strategies. It also enables the analyst to evaluate the risk level over a period of time including the impact the actual status of the plant may have on the risk level. (author)
Making online products more tangible : the effect of product presentation formats on product evaluations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verhagen, Tibert; Vonkeman, Charlotte; van Dolen, Willemijn

2016-01-01

Although several studies have looked at the effects of online product presentations on consumer decision making, no study thus far has considered a potential key factor in online product evaluations: tangibility. The present study aims at filling this gap by developing and testing a model that
Wastes incineration and public health: status of recent knowledge and risk evaluation; L'incineration des dechets et la sante publique: bilan des connaissances recentes et evaluation du risque

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1999-07-01

The incineration of municipal and industrial wastes produces combustion products with various pollutants like: dusts, acid gases, heavy metals, nitrogen oxides, dioxines etc.. This report analyzes the toxicity of different pollutants (particulates, polycyclic halogenated compounds, cadmium, mercury, lead), the exposure of the population with respect to incineration pollutants (occupational and general exposure), and the risks linked with this exposure (hazard identification, exposure evaluation, risk characterization, results). (J.S.)
7 CFR 319.59-3 - Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Articles prohibited importation pending risk... Diseases § 319.59-3 Articles prohibited importation pending risk evaluation. The articles listed in...(b), pending the completion of an evaluation by APHIS of the potential pest risks associated with the...
Risk analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought disaster in the major grain-producing areas, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zongtang Xie

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought risk can assist in reducing regional disasters and agricultural drought losses. Because of the uncertainties and incomplete agricultural drought information, this paper employed an information diffusion technology and information matrix to identify a drought disaster risk distribution and to quantify the relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the grain production losses in China's major grain-producing areas. From the assessment results, provincial drought disaster risk spatial distribution maps for each major grain-producing area in China were obtained. These risk patterns showed that the probability of drought fell when the annual drought-covered rate and the annual drought-affected rate increased, and that the high risk areas were located primarily in China's northern and central provinces. These results can provide the basis for the development of effective drought mitigation strategies which would be able to inform possible drought situations and allow for easier decision-making on drought resistance strategies. The fuzzy relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the drought-caused grain production losses provides vital information for the development of disaster compensation plans. Furthermore, the results of this study indicated that the proposed methods had superior detection stability and higher precision. We hope that by conducting such agricultural drought risk analysis, the results are able to provide the basis for the development of drought mitigation strategies to reduce future losses.
A neural network model for credit risk evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Khashman, Adnan

2009-08-01

Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.
A framework for risk assessment on lean production implementation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giuliano Almeida Marodin

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The organizational and technical complexity of implementing the lean principles and practices can become an extensively time consuming journey with few benefits. We argue that risk assessment can aid on the understanding and management of the major difficulties on the Lean production implementation (LPI. Thus, this paper proposes a framework for risk assessment on the LPI process. The literature review permitted to adapt the risk assessment steps to the characteristics of the LPI and develop data collection and analysis procedures for each step. The Sociotechnical systems (STS theory was brought in to improve the understanding of the context’s characteristics on the proposed framework because it has a major influence on the LPI. The framework was has five steps: (a defining the unit of analysis; (b describing the context; (c risk identification; (d risk analysis; and (e risk relationships modeling.
Packaging Evaluation Approach to Improve Cosmetic Product Safety

OpenAIRE

Benedetta Briasco; Priscilla Capra; Arianna Cecilia Cozzi; Barbara Mannucci; Paola Perugini

2016-01-01

In the Regulation 1223/2009, evaluation of packaging has become mandatory to assure cosmetic product safety. In fact, the safety assessment of a cosmetic product can be successfully carried out only if the hazard deriving from the use of the designed packaging for the specific product is correctly evaluated. Despite the law requirement, there is too little information about the chemical-physical characteristics of finished packaging and the possible interactions between formulation and packag...
Risk variables in evaluation of transport projects

Science.gov (United States)

Vařbuchta, Petr; Kovářová, Hana; Hromádka, Vít; Vítková, Eva

2017-09-01

Depending on the constantly increasing demands on assessment of investment projects, especially assessment of large-scale projects in transport and important European projects with wide impacts, there is constantly increasing focus on risk management, whether to find mitigations, creating corrective measures or their implementation in assessment, especially in the context of Cost-Benefit analysis. To project assessment is often used implementation of certain risk variables, which can generate negative impacts of project outputs in framework of assess. Especially in case of transportation infrastructure projects is taken much emphasis on the influence of risk variables. However, currently in case of assessment of transportation projects is in Czech Republic used a few risk variables, which occur in the most projects. This leads to certain limitation in framework of impact assessment of risk variables. This papers aims to specify a new risk variables and process of applying them to already executed project assessment. Based on changes generated by new risk variables will be evaluated differences between original and adapted assessment.
An approach to incorporate risks into a product's life-cycle assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pirhonen, P.

1995-01-01

Life-cycle assessment is usually based on regular discharges that occur at a more or less constant rate. Nevertheless, the more factors that are taken into account in the LCA the better picture it gives on the environmental aspects of a product. In this study an approach to incorporate accidental releases into a products' life-cycle assessment was developed. In this approach accidental releases are divided into two categories. The first category consists of those unplanned releases which occur with a predicted level and frequency. Due to the high frequency and small release size at a time, these accidental releases can be compared to continuous emissions. Their global impacts are studied in this approach. Accidental releases of the second category are sudden, unplanned releases caused by exceptional situations, e.g. technical failure, action error or disturbances in process conditions. These releases have a singular character and local impacts are typical of them. As far as the accidental releases of the second category are concerned, the approach introduced in this study results in a risk value for every stage of a life-cycle, the sum of which is a risk value for the whole life-cycle. Risk value is based on occurrence frequencies of incidents and potential environmental damage caused by releases. Risk value illustrates the level of potential damage caused by accidental releases related to the system under study and is meant to be used for comparison of these levels of two different products. It can also be used to compare the risk levels of different stages of the life-cycle. An approach was illustrated using petrol as an example product. The whole life-cycle of petrol from crude oil production to the consumption of petrol was studied
From risk analysis to risk control in land transport of dangerous materials. Contribution of quantitative evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

1985-03-01

The different approaches of risks and risk management system are described: statistics, potential risk, prevention, information and intervention. Quantitative evaluation is developed: data collection, purposes and methods. Two examples of application are given on risks associated to road transport of propane and of uranium hexafluoride. In conclusion level of risk and practical use of studies on risks are examined. 41 refs [fr
Evaluating the hydrological consistency of evaporation products

KAUST Repository

Lopez Valencia, Oliver Miguel; Houborg, Rasmus; McCabe, Matthew

2017-01-01

Advances in space-based observations have provided the capacity to develop regional- to global-scale estimates of evaporation, offering insights into this key component of the hydrological cycle. However, the evaluation of large-scale evaporation retrievals is not a straightforward task. While a number of studies have intercompared a range of these evaporation products by examining the variance amongst them, or by comparison of pixel-scale retrievals against ground-based observations, there is a need to explore more appropriate techniques to comprehensively evaluate remote-sensing-based estimates. One possible approach is to establish the level of product agreement between related hydrological components: for instance, how well do evaporation patterns and response match with precipitation or water storage changes? To assess the suitability of this "consistency"-based approach for evaluating evaporation products, we focused our investigation on four globally distributed basins in arid and semi-arid environments, comprising the Colorado River basin, Niger River basin, Aral Sea basin, and Lake Eyre basin. In an effort to assess retrieval quality, three satellite-based global evaporation products based on different methodologies and input data, including CSIRO-PML, the MODIS Global Evapotranspiration product (MOD16), and Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology (GLEAM), were evaluated against rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) along with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) water storage anomalies. To ensure a fair comparison, we evaluated consistency using a degree correlation approach after transforming both evaporation and precipitation data into spherical harmonics. Overall we found no persistent hydrological consistency in these dryland environments. Indeed, the degree correlation showed oscillating values between periods of low and high water storage changes, with a phase difference of about 2–3 months
Evaluating the hydrological consistency of evaporation products

KAUST Repository

Lopez Valencia, Oliver Miguel

2017-01-18

Advances in space-based observations have provided the capacity to develop regional- to global-scale estimates of evaporation, offering insights into this key component of the hydrological cycle. However, the evaluation of large-scale evaporation retrievals is not a straightforward task. While a number of studies have intercompared a range of these evaporation products by examining the variance amongst them, or by comparison of pixel-scale retrievals against ground-based observations, there is a need to explore more appropriate techniques to comprehensively evaluate remote-sensing-based estimates. One possible approach is to establish the level of product agreement between related hydrological components: for instance, how well do evaporation patterns and response match with precipitation or water storage changes? To assess the suitability of this "consistency"-based approach for evaluating evaporation products, we focused our investigation on four globally distributed basins in arid and semi-arid environments, comprising the Colorado River basin, Niger River basin, Aral Sea basin, and Lake Eyre basin. In an effort to assess retrieval quality, three satellite-based global evaporation products based on different methodologies and input data, including CSIRO-PML, the MODIS Global Evapotranspiration product (MOD16), and Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology (GLEAM), were evaluated against rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) along with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) water storage anomalies. To ensure a fair comparison, we evaluated consistency using a degree correlation approach after transforming both evaporation and precipitation data into spherical harmonics. Overall we found no persistent hydrological consistency in these dryland environments. Indeed, the degree correlation showed oscillating values between periods of low and high water storage changes, with a phase difference of about 2–3 months

D & D screening risk evaluation guidance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

1995-09-01

The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D&D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D&D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis.
Credit Risk Evaluation of Swedish SMEs : A Banking Sector Perspective

OpenAIRE

Hörstedt, Maria; Linjamaa, Johanna

2015-01-01

As a result from the latest financial crisis, the banking industry has undergone major modifications during the last years in order to limit banks’ risks. A vast majority of existing literature tends to focus upon credit risk evaluation methods and techniques mainly concerning quantitative measures and large companies. Thus, the lack of research regarding credit risk evaluation of SMEs is profound, especially considering Sweden. With the dominant market share of SMEs compared to large corpora...
Societal risk approach to safeguards design and evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphey, W.M.; Sherr, T.S.; Bennett, C.A.

1975-01-01

A comprehensive rationale for safeguards design and evaluation, and a framework for continuing systematic assessment of the system's effectiveness and efficient allocation of available safeguards resources for balanced protection, were developed. The societal risk approach employed considers the likelihood of successful destructive acts involving nuclear materials or facilities and the magnitude of the effects on society. The safeguards problem is described in terms of events affecting societal risk and adversary actions. Structure of the safeguards system and the evaluation of its adequacy are discussed. Adversary characteristics are also discussed
Managing the risk of extreme climate events in Australian major wheat production systems

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Qunying; Trethowan, Richard; Tan, Daniel K. Y.

2018-06-01

Extreme climate events (ECEs) such as drought, frost risk and heat stress cause significant economic losses in Australia. The risk posed by ECEs in the wheat production systems of Australia could be better managed through the identification of safe flowering (SFW) and optimal time of sowing (TOS) windows. To address this issue, three locations (Narrabri, Roseworthy and Merredin), three cultivars (Suntop and Gregory for Narrabri, Mace for both Roseworthy and Merredin) and 20 TOS at 1-week intervals between 1 April and 12 August for the period from 1957 to 2007 were evaluated using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM)-Wheat model. Simulation results show that (1) the average frequency of frost events decreased with TOS from 8 to 0 days (d) across the four cases (the combination of locations and cultivars), (2) the average frequency of heat stress events increased with TOS across all cases from 0 to 10 d, (3) soil moisture stress (SMS) increased with earlier TOS before reaching a plateau and then slightly decreasing for Suntop and Gregory at Narrabri and Mace at Roseworthy while SMS increased with TOS for Mace at Merredin from 0.1 to 0.8, (4) Mace at Merredin had the earliest and widest SFW (216-260) while Mace at Roseworthy had latest SFW (257-280), (5) frost risk and heat stress determine SFW at wetter sites (i.e. Narrabri and Roseworthy) while frost risk and SMS determine SFW at drier site (i.e. Merredin) and (6) the optimal TOS (window) to maximise wheat yield are 6-20 May, 13-27 May and 15 April at Narrabri, Roseworthy and Merredin, respectively. These findings provide important and specific information for wheat growers about the management of ECE risk on farm. Furthermore, the coupling of the APSIM crop models with state-of-the-art seasonal and intra-seasonal climate forecast information provides an important tool for improved management of the risk of ECEs in economically important cropping industries in the foreseeable future.
Longevity Risk and Natural Hedge Potential in Portfolios Of Life Insurance Products : The Effect of Investment Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stevens, R.S.P.; De Waegenaere, A.M.B.; Melenberg, B.

2011-01-01

Payments of life insurance products depend on the uncertain future evolution of survival probabilities. This uncertainty is referred to as longevity risk. Existing literature shows that the effect of longevity risk on single life annuities can be substantial, and that there exists a (natural) hedge
The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that
Risk communication related to animal products derived from biotechnology.

Science.gov (United States)

McCrea, D

2005-04-01

Previous chapters of this review have dealt with the key considerations related to the application of biotechnology in veterinary science and animal production. This article explores the theory and practice of risk communication and sets out the basic principles for good risk communication when dealing with new technologies, uncertainty, and cautious and sceptical consumers. After failure to communicate with consumers and stakeholders about the risk to human health from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the 1990s, Government Agencies in the United Kingdom have made significant improvements in risk communication. The official inquiry that followed the BSE crisis concluded that a policy of openness was the correct approach, and this article emphasises the importance of consultation, consistency and transparency. There are, however, many different factors that affect public perception of risk (religious, political, social, cultural, etc.) and developing effective risk communication strategies must take all of these complex issues into consideration.
Moderating effect of perceived risk on the relationship between product safety and intention

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarina Ismail

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Herbal Products industry has experienced significant growth in product demand. Therefore, this study aims to identify the factors effecting the actual buying of Herbal Product. This study also examines the moderation effect of perceived risk on the relationship between product safety and intention. Mall intercept survey was used to collect data from six various states in Malaysia. The data is analyzed using Partial Least Squares (PLS path modeling. The path coefficient results supported the direct influence of intention on actual buying. Similarly, the findings reveal that perceived risk moderate the relationship between product safety and buying intention.
A study of risk evaluation methodology selection for the external hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuramoto, Takahiro; Yamaguchi, Akira; Narumiya, Yosiyuki

2014-01-01

Since the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, there has been growing demands for assessing the effects of external hazards, including natural events, such as earthquake and tsunami, and external human behaviors, and taking actions to address those external hazards. The newly established Japanese regulatory requirements claim design considerations associated with external hazards. The primary objective of the risk assessment for external hazards is to establish countermeasures against such hazards rather than grasping the risk figures. Therefore, applying detailed risk assessment methods, such as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), to all the external hazards is not always the most appropriate. Risk assessment methods can vary in types including qualitative evaluation, hazard analysis (analyzing hazard frequencies or their influence), and margin assessment. To resolve these issues, a process has been established that enables us to identify the external hazards in a comprehensive and systematic manner, which have potential risks leading to core damage and to select an appropriate evaluation method according to the risks associated with each of the external hazards. This paper discusses the comprehensive and systematic identification process for the external hazards which have potential risks leading to core damage, and the approaches of selecting an appropriate evaluation method for each external hazard. This paper also describes some applications of specific risk evaluation methods. (author)
Prometheus unbound - challenges of risk evaluation, risk classification, and risk management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klinke, A.; Renn, O.

1999-11-01

For dealing with risks in a rational fashion, it is necessary to characterize risks and use the parameters of characterization as tools for designing appropriate actions. This reports suggests a set of criteria that one can use in evaluating risks. These criteria include: - Damage potential, i.e. the amount of damage that the hazard can cause; - probability of occurrence, i.e. the likelihood that a specific damage will occur; - incertitude, i.e., the remaining uncertainties that are not covered by the assessment of probabilities (subdivided in statistical uncertainties, genuine uncertainty, and ignorance); - ubiquity which defines the geographic dispersion of potential damages (intragenerational justice); - persistency which defines the temporal extension of potential damages (intergenerational justice); - irreversibility which describes the impossible restoration of the situation to the state before the damage occurred (possible restoration are e.g. reforestation and cleaning of water); - delay effects which characterize the time of latency between the initial event and the actual impact of damage. The time of latency could be of physical, chemical or biological nature; and - potential of mobilization which is understood as violation of individual, social or cultural interests and values generating social conflicts and psychological reactions by affected people. (orig.)
AN EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR DAIRY FARMS

OpenAIRE

Bosch, Darrell J.; Johnson, Christian J.

1992-01-01

Variability in feed prices and crop yields are important sources of risk to dairy farmers. A simulation model of a representative dairy farm was used to evaluate crop insurance and hedging as risk management strategies. These strategies lowered expected net returns but also reduced risk. The preferred set of strategies at lower levels of risk aversion included hedging and crop insurance, although a base scenario in which no risk management strategies were employed was also efficient. The pref...
Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

2012-09-01

Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Communicating radon risk effectively: a mid-course evaluation. Interim report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, V.K.; Desvousges, W.H.; Fisher, A.; Johnson, F.R.

1987-07-01

A panel of 2300 homeowners was divided into subgroups to test the effectiveness of six alternative ways of explaining the risk from naturally occurring radon gas. The research design focused on two dimensions: qualitative vs. quantitative and directive vs. evaluative. These characteristics led to 4 experimental booklets, which were compared with EPA's Citizen's Guide and a one-page fact sheet. The evaluation examined how much people learned about radon; whether they could form risk perceptions consistent with their home's measured radon level; and whether they felt they had enough information to make a decision about mitigation. The fact sheet did not perform well on any of these evaluation criteria. None of the five booklets clearly was best for all 3 evaluation criteria; the report discusses the implications for designing an effective radon-risk communication program
Evaluation Method of Collision Risk by Using True Motion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hayama Imazu

2017-03-01

Full Text Available It is necessary to develop a useful application to use big data like as AIS for safety and efficiency of ship operation. AIS is very useful system to collect targets information, but this information is not effective use yet. The evaluation method of collision risk is one of the cause disturb. Usually the collision risk of ship is evaluated by the value of the Closest Point of Approach (CPA which is related to a relative motion. So, it becomes difficult to find out a safety pass in a congested water. Here, Line of Predicted Collision (LOPC and Obstacle Zone by Target (OZT for evaluation of collision risk are introduced, these values are related to a true motion and it became visible of dangerous place, so it will make easy to find out a safety pass in a congested water.
Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

1995-01-01

During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)
Dairy Product Consumption and Risk of Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma: A Meta-Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jia; Li, Xutong; Zhang, Dongfeng

2016-02-27

Many epidemiologic studies have explored the association between dairy product consumption and the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), but the results remain controversial. A literature search was performed in PubMed, Web of Science and Embase for relevant articles published up to October 2015. Pooled relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated with a random-effects model. The dose-response relationship was assessed by restricted cubic spline. A total of 16 articles were eligible for this meta-analysis. The pooled RRs (95% CIs) of NHL for the highest vs. lowest category of the consumption of total dairy product, milk, butter, cheese, ice cream and yogurt were 1.20 (1.02, 1.42), 1.41 (1.08, 1.84), 1.31 (1.04, 1.65), 1.14 (0.96, 1.34), 1.57 (1.11, 2.20) and 0.78 (0.54, 1.12), respectively. In subgroup analyses, the positive association between total dairy product consumption and the risk of NHL was found among case-control studies (RR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.17-1.70) but not among cohort studies (RR = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.88-1.17). The pooled RRs (95% CIs) of NHL were 1.21 (1.01, 1.46) for milk consumption in studies conducted in North America, and 1.24 (1.09, 1.40) for cheese consumption in studies that adopted validated food frequency questionnaires. In further analysis of NHL subtypes, we found statistically significant associations between the consumption of total dairy product (RR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.22-2.45) and milk (RR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.08-2.06) and the risk of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. The dose-response analysis suggested that the risk of NHL increased by 5% (1.05 (1.00-1.10)) and 6% (1.06 (0.99-1.13)) for each 200 g/day increment of total dairy product and milk consumption, respectively. This meta-analysis suggested that dairy product consumption, but not yogurt, may increase the risk of NHL. More prospective cohort studies that investigate specific types of dairy product consumption are needed to confirm this conclusion.
Allocative efficiency, employment and rice production risk: An ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Smallholder farmers have developed coping mechanisms in order to minimize the negative impact of rice production risks. A programme to accelerate the provision of education and credit is needed. The education programme should include both formal and non-formal elements. This is important for the improvement of ...
Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

2014-09-01

Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.
Evaluation of risk and benefit in thermal effusivity sensor for monitoring lubrication process in pharmaceutical product manufacturing.

Science.gov (United States)

Uchiyama, Jumpei; Kato, Yoshiteru; Uemoto, Yoshifumi

2014-08-01

In the process design of tablet manufacturing, understanding and control of the lubrication process is important from various viewpoints. A detailed analysis of thermal effusivity data in the lubrication process was conducted in this study. In addition, we evaluated the risk and benefit in the lubrication process by a detailed investigation. It was found that monitoring of thermal effusivity detected mainly the physical change of bulk density, which was changed by dispersal of the lubricant and the coating powder particle by the lubricant. The monitoring of thermal effusivity was almost the monitoring of bulk density, thermal effusivity could have a high correlation with tablet hardness. Moreover, as thermal effusivity sensor could detect not only the change of the conventional bulk density but also the fractional change of thermal conductivity and thermal capacity, two-phase progress of lubrication process could be revealed. However, each contribution of density, thermal conductivity, or heat capacity to thermal effusivity has the risk of fluctuation by formulation. After carefully considering the change factor with the risk to be changed by formulation, thermal effusivity sensor can be a useful tool for monitoring as process analytical technology, estimating tablet hardness and investigating the detailed mechanism of the lubrication process.
Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

2010-06-01

In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

RISK CONNECTED WITH AIRCRAFT PRODUCTION IN ACCORDANCE WITH MINIMUM EQUIPMENT LIST (MEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. V. Enikeev

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article covers the problem of understanding of risk assessment necessity connected with aircraft production in accordance with Minimum Equipment List (MEL. The article presents calculation of fail-safe performance probability of Airbus A320 Family fuel system in the event of defect which rectification is postponed in accordance with MEL. The article also presents the results of risk assessment connected with aircraft production in accordance with MEL.
Hazard evaluation and risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fritzsche, A.F.

1986-01-01

The eigth chapter deals with the actual handling of hazards. The principal issue concerns man's behaviour towards hazards as an individual formerly and today; the evaluation of expected results of both a positive and a negative kind as determined by the individual's values which may differ and vary greatly from one individual to the next. The evaluation of benefit and hazard as well as the risk management resulting from decision-taking are political processes in the democratic state. Formal decision-taking tools play a major role in this process which concerns such central issues like who will participate; how the decision is arrived at; the participation of citizens; specialist knowledge and participation of the general public. (HSCH) [de
The impacts of product design changes on supply chain risk: a case study

OpenAIRE

Lin, Yong; Zhou, Li

2011-01-01

Purpose: The main purpose of this paper is to address the impact of product design changes on supply chain risk, and to identify the supply chain risk dimensions in the Chinese special-purpose vehicle (SPV) industry in the context of product design change.\\ud \\ud Design/methodology/approach: Case study methodology is adopted to describe the current situation of supply chain risk management in the Chinese SPV industry. Data are mainly collected from in-depth semi-structured interviews, and a c...
Benefits and risks associated with genetically modified food products.

Science.gov (United States)

Kramkowska, Marta; Grzelak, Teresa; Czyżewska, Krystyna

2013-01-01

Scientists employing methods of genetic engineering have developed a new group of living organisms, termed 'modified organisms', which found application in, among others, medicine, the pharmaceutical industry and food distribution. The introduction of transgenic products to the food market resulted in them becoming a controversial topic, with their proponents and contestants. The presented study aims to systematize objective data on the potential benefits and risks resulting from the consumption of transgenic food. Genetic modifications of plants and animals are justified by the potential for improvement of the food situation worldwide, an increase in yield crops, an increase in the nutritional value of food, and the development of pharmaceutical preparations of proven clinical significance. In the opinions of critics, however, transgenic food may unfavourably affect the health of consumers. Therefore, particular attention was devoted to the short- and long-lasting undesirable effects, such as alimentary allergies, synthesis of toxic agents or resistance to antibiotics. Examples arguing for the justified character of genetic modifications and cases proving that their use can be dangerous are innumerable. In view of the presented facts, however, complex studies are indispensable which, in a reliable way, evaluate effects linked to the consumption of food produced with the application of genetic engineering techniques. Whether one backs up or negates transgenic products, the choice between traditional and non-conventional food remains to be decided exclusively by the consumers.
Risk and profitability of animal and crop production in Slovak farms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marián Tóth

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The paper focuses on profitability and risk of crop and animal production based on an analysis of farms operating in Slovak Republic. The individual farm data used for the analysis are from the database of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of the Slovak Republic. For our analysis, data were selected according to the farm production orientation to the subset of crop farms and animal farms. The selecting criterion for production orientation was the percentage share of revenues from crop production, or revenues from animal production from the overall revenues from own products and services. We analyse profitability of farms divided into groups based on the type of production into crop and animal farms (according to the share in sales from crop or animal production. Using descriptive statistics and portfolio theory we simulate the total farm profitability and volatility of animal and crop production in Slovakia. The modified Markowitz portfolio theory approach was used to estimate the total risk of portfolios of crop and animal farms. Based on the results we conclude that in the long run crop farms are profitable and profit from crop production is used to cover the losses from animal production in mixed farms. Farms focused on animal production only are efficient and profitable, but the profitability is lower in comparison with crop farms. Animal farms results are less volatile than crop farms. Large farms tend to production with lower value added and can generate enough profit for the owner.
Systematic Review of the Association between Dairy Product Consumption and Risk of Cardiovascular-Related Clinical Outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Drouin-Chartier, Jean-Philippe; Brassard, Didier; Tessier-Grenier, Maude; Côté, Julie Anne; Labonté, Marie-Ève; Desroches, Sophie; Couture, Patrick; Lamarche, Benoît

2016-11-01

The objective of this systematic review was to determine if dairy product consumption is detrimental, neutral, or beneficial to cardiovascular health and if the recommendation to consume reduced-fat as opposed to regular-fat dairy is evidence-based. A systematic review of meta-analyses of prospective population studies associating dairy consumption with cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, hypertension, metabolic syndrome (MetS), and type 2 diabetes (T2D) was conducted on the basis of the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) statement. Quality of evidence was rated by using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation scale. High-quality evidence supports favorable associations between total dairy intake and hypertension risk and between low-fat dairy and yogurt intake and the risk of T2D. Moderate-quality evidence suggests favorable associations between intakes of total dairy, low-fat dairy, cheese, and fermented dairy and the risk of stroke; intakes of low-fat dairy and milk and the risk of hypertension; total dairy and milk consumption and the risk of MetS; and total dairy and cheese and the risk of T2D. High- to moderate-quality evidence supports neutral associations between the consumption of total dairy, cheese, and yogurt and CVD risk; the consumption of any form of dairy, except for fermented, and CAD risk; the consumption of regular- and high-fat dairy, milk, and yogurt and stroke risk; the consumption of regular- and high-fat dairy, cheese, yogurt, and fermented dairy and hypertension risk; and the consumption of regular- and high-fat dairy, milk, and fermented dairy and T2D risk. Data from this systematic review indicate that the consumption of various forms of dairy products shows either favorable or neutral associations with cardiovascular-related clinical outcomes. The review also emphasizes that further research is urgently needed to compare the impact of
75 FR 391 - Medical Device Quality System Regulation Educational Forum on Risk Management Through the Product...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-05

...] Medical Device Quality System Regulation Educational Forum on Risk Management Through the Product Life... on Risk Management through the Product Life Cycle.'' This public workshop is intended to provide... discussed at the workshop: (1) Standards and guidance, (2) risk management in design, (3) risk management in...
Inherent health and environmental risk assessment of nanostructured metal oxide production processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Torabifard, Mina; Arjmandi, Reza; Rashidi, Alimorad; Nouri, Jafar; Mohammadfam, Iraj

2018-01-10

The health and environmental effects of chemical processes can be assessed during the initial stage of their production. In this paper, the Chemical Screening Tool for Exposure and Environmental Release (ChemSTEER) software was used to compare the health and environmental risks of spray pyrolysis and wet chemical techniques for the fabrication of nanostructured metal oxide on a semi-industrial scale with a capacity of 300 kg/day in Iran. The pollution sources identified in each production process were pairwise compared in Expert Choice software using indicators including respiratory damage, skin damage, and environmental damages including air, water, and soil pollution. The synthesis of nanostructured zinc oxide using the wet chemical technique (with 0.523 wt%) leads to lower health and environmental risks compared to when spray pyrolysis is used (with 0.477 wt%). The health and environmental risk assessment of nanomaterial production processes can help select safer processes, modify the operation conditions, and select or modify raw materials that can help eliminate the risks.
Dietary risk ranking for residual antibiotics in cultured aquatic products around Tai Lake, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Chao; Li, Le; Zhang, Cong; Qiu, Liping; Fan, Limin; Wu, Wei; Meng, Shunlong; Hu, Gengdong; Chen, Jiazhang; Liu, Ying; Mao, Aimin

2017-10-01

Antibiotics are widely used in aquaculture and therefore may be present as a dietary risk in cultured aquatic products. Using the Tai Lake Basin as a study area, we assessed the presence of 15 antibiotics in 5 widely cultured aquatic species using a newly developed dietary risk ranking approach. By assigning scores to each factor involved in the ranking matrices, the scores of dietary risks per antibiotic and per aquatic species were calculated. The results indicated that fluoroquinolone antibiotics posed the highest dietary risk in all aquatic species. Then, the total scores per aquatic species were summed by all 15 antibiotic scores of antibiotics, it was found that Crab (Eriocheir sinensis) had the highest dietary risks. Finally, the most concerned antibiotic category and aquatic species were selected. This study highlighted the importance of dietary risk ranking in the production and consumption of cultured aquatic products around Tai Lake. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Scenario evaluation of open pond microalgae production

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Slegers, P.M.; Lösing, M.B.; Wijffels, R.H.; Straten, van G.; Boxtel, van A.J.B.

2013-01-01

To evaluate microalgae production in large scale open ponds under different climatologic conditions, a model-based framework is used to study the effect of light conditions, water temperature and reactor design on trends in algae productivity. Scenario analyses have been done for two algae species
Do Antibiotics Reduce Production Risk for U.S. Pork Producers?

OpenAIRE

Liu, Xuanli; Miller, Gay Y.; McNamara, Paul E.

2005-01-01

Production risk from live weight variation of market pigs has become a more important concern in U.S. swine production. Packers are concerned about the variation in carcass size because of the demand for standardized cuts and the use of automation in the slaughter process. Swine producers care about standardized pigs because of revenue implications and possible links to animal health and productivity. Pig size variation can be due to various condition and inputs including antibiotics. However...
Qualification program of the ASTRID SFR project: definition, methodology and associated risk evaluation and management - 15093

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodriguez, G.; Dirat, J.F.; Traina, A.; Christofari, M.

2015-01-01

The Preconceptual Design phase of the ASTRID French Sodium Fast Reactor project had the objective to integrate innovative options to meet the requirements of the 4. generation reactors and to comply with the related specifications. It was followed by the conceptual phase studies (AVP2 phase 2013-2015) where some technical options are left opened with an advanced option and a backup alternative. In the same time of the AVP2 phase studies, the qualification program related to ASTRID project was initiated. It consists in collecting the exhaustive list of research/development (R/D) needs and technological demonstration tests to be fulfilled on representative mockup prior to component implementation in the prototype. The ASTRID Qualification Program (AQP) objectives are to collect needs expressed by all engineering companies involved in ASTRID, and then to organize the answer to this expression of needs. This significant work of needs compilation has been divided in several tasks, according to the ASTRID project decomposition in the Product Breakdown Structure (PBS). Compilation of needs was jointly performed by engineering company, R/D responsible and coordinated by the ASTRID Qualification project responsible. It was associated with an evaluation of the maturity level of the technical options thanks to a Technological Readiness Level grid (TRL ranking table), an identification of major risks, and an evaluation of the R/D potentiality and associated facility platform. The methodology applied for the ASTRID Qualification Program (AQP) is presented. It is explained what methodology was used associated to the TRL process, and how is managed the associated risk analysis evaluation: evaluation of major risks, definition of a risk portfolio and a corresponding Action Plan for risk reduction (synthesized under the REM acronym: Risk Evaluation and Management). This methodology is a mean used to facilitate ASTRID risk-informed decision making, technology qualification and
Evaluating the Impact of a New Product on the Sales of other Products

OpenAIRE

Julian Andreev Vasilev

2014-01-01

The purpose of this article is to evaluate the impact of a new product on the sales of other products. Launching a new product may lead to increase or decrease of sales in the products of the same group. Customers may continue buying standard products or they may be oriented to new products. New products may cause internal competition. Statistical methods are applied. Time series analysis is used. Transactional database of a confectionary factory is the main source of data. The time series an...
Evaluating PHA productivity of bioengineered Rhodosprillum rubrum.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huanan Jin

Full Text Available This study explored the potential of using Rhodosprillum rubrum as the biological vehicle to convert chemically simple carbon precursors to a value-added bio-based product, the biopolymer PHA. R. rubrum strains were bioengineered to overexpress individually or in various combinations, six PHA biosynthetic genes (phaC1, phaA, phaB, phaC2, phaC3, and phaJ, and the resulting nine over-expressing strains were evaluated to assess the effect on PHA content, and the effect on growth. These experiments were designed to genetically evaluate: 1 the role of each apparently redundant PHA polymerase in determining PHA productivity; 2 identify the key gene(s within the pha biosynthetic operon that determines PHA productivity; and 3 the role of phaJ to support PHA productivity. The result of overexpressing each PHA polymerase-encoding gene indicates that phaC1 and phaC2 are significant contributors to PHA productivity, whereas phaC3 has little effect. Similarly, over-expressing individually or in combination the three PHA biosynthesis genes located in the pha operon indicates that phaB is the key determinant of PHA productivity. Finally, analogous experiments indicate that phaJ does not contribute significantly to PHA productivity. These bioengineering strains achieved PHA productivity of up to 30% of dry biomass, which is approximately 2.5-fold higher than the non-engineered control strain, indicating the feasibility of using this approach to produce value added bio-based products.
Dynamic performances of the fallout radionuclides in the environment and related health risk evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morisawa, Shinsuke

2003-01-01

The framework was developed for evaluating the cancer induction mortality risk due to the prolonged exposure to the fallout Sr-90 in the environment, which was released by the atmospheric nuclear detonation tests, through dietary intake by considering the effect of foods and feeds import to Japan. The risk evaluation framework presented was composed of three sub-models: the model foe evaluation of the global circulation of Sr-90, the model for evaluation of Sr-90 concentration in foods and dietary intake, and the model for the cancer induction mortality risk. The mortality risk by the radiation-induced leukemia was evaluated based on the NUREG/CR-4214 model. The model was applied on the reference Japanese for past half century to evaluate the historical variation of the health risks. The new framework is presented and discussed on their feasibility to apply on the health risk evaluation due to the low-level and prolonged exposure to radionuclides in the environment. The possibility to use some kind of bio-markers are discussed to evaluate the potential health risk in advance before the risk will be actually detected. (author)
Expected energy production evaluation for photovoltaic systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ding, Yi; Østergaard, Jacob; Peng, Wang

2011-01-01

A photovoltaic (PV) system consists of many solar panels, which are connected in series, parallel or a combination of both. Energy production for the PV system with various configurations is different. In this paper, a methodology is developed to evaluate and analyze the expected energy production...
Main health risks associated with Moroccan fishery products exported to European Union countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Dahani

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The export of fishery products constitutes a very significant axis of the exchanges with certain countries, especially the countries of the European Union (EU. In Morocco, the exported fish products are controlled by the veterinarians of the National Office of the Health Security of Food products (NOHSF according to a procedure which is based on documentary control, identity and physical control and possibly analytical control. This control is complemented by monitoring plans. Currently, the product control has become a more demanding task due to the significant volume of fish production, the lack of means and human resources, hence the need for a novel approach to the control of fishery products based on risk analysis, which involves the establishment of appropriate controls aiming at guaranteeing that the products are safe. The objective of this work is the hierarchization of the main health risks associated to the fishery products exported to EU countries by Morocco. This approach is based on an overall analysis and statistical analysis using principal components analysis (PCA of the health profile of the notifications of the Rapid Alert System for the foodstuffs and feeding stuffs (RASFF from 1981 to 2015. This work allowed the development of a criticality matrix which specifies the health profile of species of products exported to EU countries via Morocco according to species, of danger and type of product. The control of fishery products based on risk analysis is a very important approach for the Moroccan competent authority.
Evaluation of air pollution-related risks for Austrian mountain forests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smidt, Stefan; Herman, Friedl

2004-01-01

The present paper describes air pollution status and evaluation of risks related to effects of phytotoxic pollutants in the Austrian mountain forests. The results are based on Austrian networks (Forest Inventory, Forest Damage Monitoring System, Austrian Bioindicator Grid), the Austrian sample plots of the European networks of the UN-ECE (ICP Forests, Level I and Level II) and interdisciplinary research approaches. Based on the monitoring data and on modelling and mapping of Critical Thresholds, the evaluation of risk factors was possible. Cause-effect relationships between air pollution and tree responses were shown by tree-physiological measurements. Sulfur impact, proton and lead input, concentrations of nitrogen oxides, nitrogen input and ozone were evaluated. The risk was demonstrated at a regional and large-scale national level. Especially the increasing O 3 level and the accumulation of Pb with altitude present most serious risk for mountain forests. - Despite strong reduction of emissions in Europe, pollutants are still a potential stress factor, especially for sensitive mountain forest ecosystems in Austria
Evaluation of risk prioritization and budget allocation methods for pollution prevention activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daniels, J.; Jones, E.; Lmont, A.; Ladmn, T.; Watz, J.

1997-01-01

This study reviews the structure of two main risk prioritization budget allocation methods developed by the DOE Risk-Based Priority Mode (RPM) and Management Evaluation Matrix (MEM). It identifies potential augmentations to the process that will address both risk reduction and cost-effective investments of finite resources for future Environmental Management activities. The evaluation was performed in accordance with the EM ten-year vision and principles for site cleanup. The evaluation and recommendations in this report strive to reflect four key principles, namely to eliminate the most urgent risks, reduce mortgage and support costs to make funds available for further risk reduction, protect worker health and safety, and reduce the generation of wastes
Moving toward exposure and risk evaluation of nanomaterials: challenges and future directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Treye; Bahadori, Tina; Savage, Nora; Thomas, Karluss

2009-01-01

Nanotechnology, the commercial development of engineered nanomaterials, promises breakthrough innovations by enhancing the performance of existing consumer products and enabling development of new devices, architectures, and applications. Although these materials and applications are being developed at an explosive pace, a fundamental understanding of any potential human health and environmental risks resulting from exposure throughout the lifecycle of these materials has not advanced as rapidly. Past experience has demonstrated that successful introduction of a new technology occurs more readily if it is precipitated by a robust appreciation for any inherent risks associated with the technology. Such understanding allows the timely development of occupational and consumer exposure standards that might be needed to protect human health and the environment. Although risk is recognized as the product of hazard and exposure, too often exposure patterns are poorly characterized, and risk is based primarily or exclusively on the hazard characterization. The extent of exposure to nanomaterials in currently available commercial products is relatively unknown. Given the number of commercial products that claim to contain engineered nanomaterials, it is possible that human and environmental exposure to these materials is widespread. This paper is intended to highlight the importance of exposure assessment for determining the potential risks of nanomaterials. In essence, this is a call to action to the community of exposure scientists, toxicologists, and risk assessors to develop, consider, and incorporate requisite exposure information in the risk assessment of nanomaterials. Without an integrated approach, it will be difficult to meaningfully assess the risks of nanomaterials, realize their potential benefits, and foster their sustainable development. (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Integration of industrial risk in regional policy management. Possibilities of evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Philippe; Pages, Pierre

1990-02-01

Since the responsibility for risk management depends more and more on regional factors, evaluation methods and management regulations are not developed enough. This study start from the fact that an important methods exist for evaluation transport of dangerous materials in cities, risk analysis and emergency plans related to classified installations, management of quality of water, 'chronic' industrial risks at local and regional level, probabilistic estimation for industrial plants. The objective is in fact to show what risk analysis could bring to the municipality, the city or the region [fr
Optimization of the production plan and risk control in Third Qinshan Nuclear Power Co.,Ltd

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou Jun

2009-01-01

Some optimized and improved measures have been taken in Third Qinshan Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. (TQNPC) to optimize the routine production plan management, strengthen the maintenance work risk analysis, and improve the plan execution capability. Which involve unified management of generation, refueling, periodic test and maintenance plans; simplifying the defect scale and reducing the intermediate link of defect treatment; intensifying the appraisal on plan execution and adopting star performance evaluation and merit rating measures. In this paper, the above-mentioned improvement and optimization are introduced comprehensively and systematically. (authors)
Risk management of Norwegian oil production; Risikostyring av norsk oljeproduksjon

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kloegetvedt, Bjoern

1998-07-01

The items discussed in this presentation are: (1) Oil price chronology, (2) Market structure - Forward prices, (3) Volatility in oil prices, (4) Sales strategies and price fixing, (5) Development of ''Risk Management'' in the oil trading, (6) Oil products and markets, (7) Management of risk exposure, (8) Strong points and weak points of the norm price system, (9) Comparison with UK.
Maintenance evaluation using risk based criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Torres Valle, A.

1996-01-01

The maintenance evaluation is currently performed by using economic and, in some case, technical equipment failure criteria, however this is done to a specific equipment level. In general, when statistics are used the analysis for maintenance optimization are made isolated and whit a post mortem character; The integration provided by mean of Probabilistic Safety assessment (PSA) together with the possibilities of its applications, allow for evaluation of maintenance on the basis of broader scope criteria in regard to those traditionally used. The evaluate maintenance using risk based criteria, is necessary to follow a dynamic and systematic approach, in studying the maintenance strategy, to allow for updating the initial probabilistic models, for including operational changes that often take place during operation of complex facilities. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation system of maintenance task. The system is illustrated by means of a practical example
Risk Evaluation of Railway Coal Transportation Network Based on Multi Level Grey Evaluation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, Wei; Wang, Xifu

2018-01-01

The railway transport mode is currently the most important way of coal transportation, and now China’s railway coal transportation network has become increasingly perfect, but there is still insufficient capacity, some lines close to saturation and other issues. In this paper, the theory and method of risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process and multi-level gray evaluation model are applied to the risk evaluation of coal railway transportation network in China. Based on the example analysis of Shanxi railway coal transportation network, to improve the internal structure and the competitiveness of the market.
Host cell proteins in biotechnology-derived products: A risk assessment framework.

Science.gov (United States)

de Zafra, Christina L Zuch; Quarmby, Valerie; Francissen, Kathleen; Vanderlaan, Martin; Zhu-Shimoni, Judith

2015-11-01

To manufacture biotechnology products, mammalian or bacterial cells are engineered for the production of recombinant therapeutic human proteins including monoclonal antibodies. Host cells synthesize an entire repertoire of proteins which are essential for their own function and survival. Biotechnology manufacturing processes are designed to produce recombinant therapeutics with a very high degree of purity. While there is typically a low residual level of host cell protein in the final drug product, under some circumstances a host cell protein(s) may copurify with the therapeutic protein and, if it is not detected and removed, it may become an unintended component of the final product. The purpose of this article is to enumerate and discuss factors to be considered in an assessment of risk of residual host cell protein(s) detected and identified in the drug product. The consideration of these factors and their relative ranking will lead to an overall risk assessment that informs decision-making around how to control the levels of host cell proteins. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
An evaluation framework for business process management products

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koster, Stefan R.; Iacob, Maria Eugenia; Ferreira Pires, Luis; Rinderle-Ma, Stefanie; Sadiq, Shazia; Leymann, Frank

2010-01-01

The number of BPM products available has increased substantially in the last years, so that choosing among these products became a difficult task for potential BPM users. This paper defines a framework for evaluating BPM products, and discusses how this framework has been applied in the development
The evaluation of effective criteria on site selection for energy production units from cellulosic biomass in Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Majid Azizi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Both Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP and benefits, opportunities, costs and risks (BOCR techniques were used successfully to evaluate the effective criteria on site selection for energy production unit development from cellulosic biomass in Iran. The results showed that the benefits criteria was at the first level while the initial cellulosic raw materials and opportunities with the aim of the local economy had the second position as the most important indices on site selection. In addition, third criterion has been introduced for the costs criteria (transportation cost and social barriers by the experts. However, risks criteria which referred to instability of providing cellulosic raw materials is one of the less important effective indices on site selection to make energy production unit. The results illustrated that the economy and politics as two environmental effective factors affected on the site selection process generally.
Biological risks associated with consumption of reptile products.

Science.gov (United States)

Magnino, Simone; Colin, Pierre; Dei-Cas, Eduardo; Madsen, Mogens; McLauchlin, Jim; Nöckler, Karsten; Maradona, Miguel Prieto; Tsigarida, Eirini; Vanopdenbosch, Emmanuel; Van Peteghem, Carlos

2009-09-15

The consumption of a wide variety of species of reptiles caught from the wild has been an important source of protein for humans world-wide for millennia. Terrapins, snakes, lizards, crocodiles and iguanas are now farmed and the consumption and trade of their meat and other edible products have recently increased in some areas of the world. Biological risks associated with the consumption of products from both farmed and wild reptile meat and eggs include infections caused by bacteria (Salmonella spp., Vibrio spp.), parasites (Spirometra, Trichinella, Gnathostoma, pentastomids), as well as intoxications by biotoxins. For crocodiles, Salmonella spp. constitute a significant public health risk due to the high intestinal carrier rate which is reflected in an equally high contamination rate in their fresh and frozen meat. There is a lack of information about the presence of Salmonella spp. in meat from other edible reptilians, though captive reptiles used as pets (lizards or turtles) are frequently carriers of these bacteria in Europe. Parasitic protozoa in reptiles represent a negligible risk for public health compared to parasitic metazoans, of which trichinellosis, pentastomiasis, gnathostomiasis and sparganosis can be acquired through consumption of contaminated crocodile, monitor lizard, turtle and snake meat, respectively. Other reptiles, although found to harbour the above parasites, have not been implicated with their transmission to humans. Freezing treatment inactivates Spirometra and Trichinella in crocodile meat, while the effectiveness of freezing of other reptilian meat is unknown. Biotoxins that accumulate in the flesh of sea turtles may cause chelonitoxism, a type of food poisoning with a high mortality rate in humans. Infections by fungi, including yeasts, and viruses widely occur in reptiles but have not been linked to a human health risk through the contamination of their meat. Currently there are no indications that natural transmissible spongiform
Concentration and health risk evaluation of heavy metals in market-sold vegetables and fishes based on questionnaires in Beijing, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Yanyan; Nie, Zhiqiang; Liu, Feng; Die, Qingqi; He, Jie; Huang, Qifei

2014-10-01

Concentrations of heavy metals (As, Cd, Pb, Cu, Ni, Fe, Mn, and Zn) in market vegetables and fishes in Beijing, China, are investigated, and their health risk to local consumers is evaluated by calculating the target hazard quotient (THQ). The heavy metal concentrations in vegetables and fishes ranged from not detectable (ND) to 0.21 mg/kg fresh weight (f.w.) (As), ND to 0.10 mg/kg f.w. (Cd), and n.d to 0.57 mg/kg f.w. (Pb), with average concentrations of 0.17, 0.04, and 0.24 mg/kg f.w., respectively. The measured concentrations of As, Cd, Pb, Cu, Ni, Fe, Mn, and Zn are generally lower than the safety limits given by the Chinese regulation safety and quality standards of agriculture products (GB2762-2012). As, Cd, and Pb contaminations are found in vegetables and fishes. The exceeding standard rates are 19 % for As, 3 % for Cd, and 25 % for Pb. Pb contaminations are found quite focused on the fish samples from traditional agri-product markets. The paper further analyzed the health risk of heavy metals in vegetables and fishes respectively from supermarkets and traditional agri-product markets; the results showed that the fishes of traditional agri-product markets have higher health risk, while the supermarkets have vegetables of higher heavy metal risk, and the supervision should be strengthened in the fish supply channels in traditional agri-product markets.
Non-animal approaches for toxicokinetics in risk evaluations of food chemicals.

Science.gov (United States)

Punt, Ans; Peijnenburg, Ad A C M; Hoogenboom, Ron L A P; Bouwmeester, Hans

2017-01-01

The objective of the present work was to review the availability and predictive value of non-animal toxicokinetic approaches and to evaluate their current use in European risk evaluations of food contaminants, additives and food contact materials, as well as pesticides and medicines. Results revealed little use of quantitative animal or human kinetic data in risk evaluations of food chemicals, compared with pesticides and medicines. Risk evaluations of medicines provided sufficient in vivo kinetic data from different species to evaluate the predictive value of animal kinetic data for humans. These data showed a relatively poor correlation between the in vivo bioavailability in rats and dogs versus that in humans. In contrast, in vitro (human) kinetic data have been demonstrated to provide adequate predictions of the fate of compounds in humans, using appropriate in vitro-in vivo scalers and by integration of in vitro kinetic data with in silico kinetic modelling. Even though in vitro kinetic data were found to be occasionally included within risk evaluations of food chemicals, particularly results from Caco-2 absorption experiments and in vitro data on gut-microbial conversions, only minor use of in vitro methods for metabolism and quantitative in vitro-in vivo extrapolation methods was identified. Yet, such quantitative predictions are essential in the development of alternatives to animal testing as well as to increase human relevance of toxicological risk evaluations. Future research should aim at further improving and validating quantitative alternative methods for kinetics, thereby increasing regulatory acceptance of non-animal kinetic data.
How Does Risk Management Influence Production Decisions? Evidence from a Field Experiment

OpenAIRE

Cole, Shawn; Giné, Xavier; Vickery, James

2013-01-01

Weather is a key source of income risk for many firms and households, particularly in emerging market economies. This paper uses a randomized controlled trial approach to study how an innovative risk management instrument for hedging rainfall risk affects production decisions among a sample of Indian agricultural firms. The analysis finds that the provision of insurance induces farmers to ...
Literature Review on Modeling Cyber Networks and Evaluating Cyber Risks.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kelic, Andjelka; Campbell, Philip L

2018-04-01

The National Infrastructure Simulations and Analysis Center (NISAC) conducted a literature review on modeling cyber networks and evaluating cyber risks. The literature review explores where modeling is used in the cyber regime and ways that consequence and risk are evaluated. The relevant literature clusters in three different spaces: network security, cyber-physical, and mission assurance. In all approaches, some form of modeling is utilized at varying levels of detail, while the ability to understand consequence varies, as do interpretations of risk. This document summarizes the different literature viewpoints and explores their applicability to securing enterprise networks.
Methodology for evaluation of industrial CHP production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pavlovic, Nenad V.; Studovic, Milovan

2000-01-01

At the end of the century industry switched from exclusive power consumer into power consumer-producer which is one of the players on the deregulated power market. Consequently, goals of industrial plant optimization have to be changed, making new challenges that industrial management has to be faced with. In the paper is reviewed own methodology for evaluation of industrial power production on deregulated power market. The methodology recognizes economic efficiency of industrial CHP facilities as a main criterion for evaluation. Energy and ecological efficiency are used as additional criteria, in which implicit could be found social goals. Also, methodology recognizes key and limit factors for CHP production in industry. It could be successful applied, by use of available commercial software for energy simulation in CHP plants and economic evaluation. (Authors)
Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

Science.gov (United States)

Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

2015-05-01

Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.
Buying Behavior Of Organic Vegetables Product The Effects Of Perceptions Of Quality And Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Doni Purnama Alamsyah

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Consumer behaviors are more important in the study of Green Marketing. This studied aims to examined buying behavior of consumers on organic products which is formed by perception of quality and perception of risk. The research model with three hypotheses to explained the relationship and influenced between the constructs that perception of quality perception of risk and purchase decision. In these empirical studied treated 366 respondents from customer of retail supermarkets in West Java - Indonesia. Results of research founded a significant negative relationship between perception of quality and perception of risk. As well as the behavior of perception of quality and the perception of risk has a significant influenced on purchase decision. Retail self-service needs to improve the perception of quality and reduces the risk perception of the consumers if purchasing behavior of consumers want increase on organic products. This studied was useful in raising awareness of self-service retail and consumers for environmentally friendly products.
Evaluation of risk effective STIs with specific application to diesels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.; Samanta, P.K.; Ginzburg, T.

1987-01-01

From a risk standpoint, the objective of surveillance tests is to control the risk arising from failures which can occur while the component is on standby. At the same time, risks caused by the test from test-caused failures and test-caused degradations need also to be controlled. Risk-acceptable test intervals balance these risks in an attempt to achieve an acceptable low, overall risk. Risk and reliability approaches are presented which allow risk-acceptable test intervals to be determined for any component. To provide focus for the approaches, diesels are specifically evaluated, however, the approaches can be applied not only to diesels, but to any component with suitable data. Incorporation of the approaches in personal computer (PC) software is discussed, which can provide tools for the regulator or plant personnel for determining acceptable diesel test intervals for any plant specific or generic application. The FRANTIC III computer code was run to validate the approaches and to evaluate specific issues associated with determining risk effective test intervals for diesels. Using the approaches presented, diesel accident unavailability can be more effectively monitored and be controlled on a plant-specific or generic basis. Test intervals can be made more risk effective than they are now, producing more acceptable accident unavailabilities. The methods presented are one step toward performance-based technical specifications, which more directly control risks
Risk Evaluation for CO{sub 2} Geosequestration in the Knox Supergroup

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leetaru, Hannes

2014-01-31

This report describes a process and provides seed information for identifying and evaluating risks pertinent to a hypothetical carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) capture and sequestration (CCS) project. In the envisioned project, the target sequestration reservoir rock is the Potosi Formation of the Knox Supergroup. The Potosi is identified as a potential target formation because (1) at least locally, it contains vuggy to cavernous layers that have very high porosity, and (2) it is present in areas where the deeper Mt. Simon Sandstone (a known potential reservoir unit) is absent or nonporous. The key report content is discussed in Section 3.3, which describes two lists of Features, Events, and Processes (FEPs) that should be considered during the design stage of such a project. These lists primarily highlight risk elements particular to the establishment of the Potosi as the target formation in general. The lists are consciously incomplete with respect to risk elements that would be relevant for essentially all CCS projects regardless of location or geology. In addition, other risk elements specific to a particular future project site would have to be identified. Sources for the FEPs and scenarios listed here include the iconic Quintessa FEPs list developed for the International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas (IEAGHG) Programme; previous risk evaluation projects executed by Schlumberger Carbon Services; and new input solicited from experts currently working on aspects of CCS in the Knox geology. The projects used as sources of risk information are primarily those that have targeted carbonate reservoir rocks similar in age, stratigraphy, and mineralogy to the Knox-Potosi. Risks of using the Potosi Formation as the target sequestration reservoir for a CCS project include uncertainties about the levels of porosity and permeability of that rock unit; the lateral consistency and continuity of those properties; and the ability of the project team to identify suitable (i
Evaluating investments in renewable energy under policy risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gatzert, Nadine; Vogl, Nikolai

2016-01-01

The considerable amount of required infrastructure and renewable energy investments expected in the forthcoming years also implies an increasingly relevant contribution of private and institutional investors. In this context, especially regulatory and policy risks have been shown to play a major role for investors when evaluating investments in renewable energy and should thus also be taken into account in risk assessment and when deriving risk-return profiles. In this paper, we provide a stochastic model framework to quantify policy risks associated with renewable energy investments (e.g. a retrospective reduction of a feed-in tariff), thereby also taking into account energy price risk, resource risk, and inflation risk. The model is illustrated by means of simulations and scenario analyses, and it makes use of expert estimates and fuzzy set theory for quantifying policy risks. Our numerical results for a portfolio of onshore wind farms in Germany and France show that policy risk can strongly impact risk-return profiles, and that cross-country diversification effects can considerably decrease the overall risk for investors. - Highlights: •Quantification of policy risks associated with renewable energy investments. •Results emphasize that policy risk has a major impact on risk and return. •Study of the cross-country diversification potential. •Cross-country diversification can considerably decrease the risk for an investor.
Methodology of evaluation of value created in the productive processes

OpenAIRE

M.T. Roszak

2008-01-01

Purpose: Of this paper was to present the methodology of analysis of the productive processes with applicationof value analysis and multi-criterion-analysis which allow to evaluate the technology and organization of theproductive processes.Design/methodology/approach: Presented in the paper methodology of evaluation of the productive processesis based on analysis of activities in the productive processes and their characteristics with reference to createdvalue in the productive chain.Findings...

Environmental risk assessment for veterinary medicinal products. Part 1. Other than GMO-containing and immunological products. First update

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Montforts MHMM; CSR

1999-01-01

The EC has issued directives (1981, 1992) requesting for registration of veterinary medicinal product information to enable an assessment of the product's safety for the environment. As a whole, the risk assessment is structured around the hazard quotient approach used in USES (1994). Predicted
Evaluation of methane production features and kinetics of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

zino

2015-06-03

Jun 3, 2015 ... as agricultural fertilizer. In recent years, the conversion of ... few studies investigated the biogas production rate. In the ... evaluate biogas production rate using obtained .... The parameters obtained in the optimization process.
Evaluation of relational database products for the VAX

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kannan, K.L.

1985-11-01

Four commercially available database products for the VAX/VMS operating system were evaluated for relative performance and ease of use. The products were DATATRIEVE, INGRES, Rdb, and S1032. Performance was measured in terms of elapsed time, CPU time, direct I/O counts, buffered I/O counts, and page faults. East of use is more subjective and has not been quantified here; however, discussion and tables of features as well as query syntax are included. This report describes the environment in which these products were evaluated and the characteristics of the databases used. All comparisons must be interpreted in the context of this setting
Evaluation of relational database products for the VAX

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kannan, K.L.

1985-11-01

Four commercially available database products for the VAX/VMS operating system were evaluated for relative performance and ease of use. The products were DATATRIEVE, INGRES, Rdb, and S1032. Performance was measured in terms of elapsed time, CPU time, direct I/O counts, buffered I/O counts, and page faults. East of use is more subjective and has not been quantified here; however, discussion and tables of features as well as query syntax are included. This report describes the environment in which these products were evaluated and the characteristics of the databases used. All comparisons must be interpreted in the context of this setting.
Risk evaluation: A cost-oriented approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogers, B.H.

1998-01-01

This method provides a structured and cost-oriented way to determine risks associated with loss and destruction of industrial security interests consisting of material assets and human resources. Loss and destruction are assumed to be adversary perpetrated, high-impact events in which the health and safety of people or high-value property is at risk. This concept provides a process for: (1) assessing effectiveness of all integrated protection system, which includes facility operations, safety, emergency and security systems, and (2) a qualitative prioritization scheme to determine the level of consequence relative to cost and subsequent risk. The method allows managers the flexibility to establish asset protection appropriate to programmatic requirements and priorities and to decide if funding is appropriate. The evaluation objectives are to: (1) provide for a systematic, qualitative tabletop process to estimate the potential for an undesirable event and its impact; and (2) identify ineffective protection and cost-effective solutions
Quantifying risk: the role of absolute and relative measures in interpreting risk of adverse reactions from product labels of antipsychotic medications.

Science.gov (United States)

Citrome, Leslie

2009-09-01

Pharmaceutical product labeling as approved by regulatory agencies include statements of adverse event risk. Product labels include descriptive statements such as whether events are uncommon or rare, as well as percentage occurrence for more common events. In addition tables are provided with the frequencies of the latter events for both product and placebo as observed in clinical trials. Competing products are not mentioned in a specific drug's product labeling but indirect comparisons can be made using the corresponding label information for the alternate product. Two types of tools are easily used for this purpose: absolute measures such as number needed to harm (NNH), and relative measures such as relative risk increase (RRI). The calculations for both of these types of quantitative measures are presented using as examples the oral first-line second-generation antipsychotic medications. Among three sample outcomes selected a priori, akathisia, weight gain, and discontinuation from a clinical trial because of an adverse reaction, there appears to be differences among the different antipsychotics versus placebo. Aripiprazole was associated with the highest risk for akathisia, particularly when used as adjunctive treatment of major depressive disorder (NNH 5, 95% CI 4-7; RRI 525%, 95% CI 267%-964%). Although insufficient information was available in product labeling to calculate the CI, olanzapine was associated with the highest risk for weight gain of at least 7% from baseline (NNH 6, RRI 640% for adults; NNH 4, RRI 314% for adolescents), and quetiapine for the indication of bipolar depression was associated with the highest risk of discontinuation from a clinical trial because of an adverse reaction (NNH 8, RRI 265% for 600 mg/d; NNH 15, RRI 137% for 300 mg/d). In conclusion, with certain limitations, it is possible for the clinician to extract information from medication product labeling regarding the frequency with which certain adverse reactions can be
Practical use of registered veterinary medicinal products in Macedonia in identifying the risk of developing of antimicrobial resistance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Velev Romel

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The use of antimicrobial agents is the key risk factor for the development and spread of antimicrobial resistance. It is therefore generally recognized that data on the usage of antimicrobial agents in food-producing animals are essential for identifying and quantifying the risk of developing and spreading of antimicrobial resistance in the food-chain. According to the WHO guidelines, the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical system for the classification of veterinary medicines (ATC-vet is widely recognized as a classification tool. The aim of this work is to analyze the list of registered veterinary medicinal products in R. Macedonia and to evaluate the quality and practical use of this list according to the ATC-vet classification in order to identify the risk of developing and spreading of antimicrobial resistance.
Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

Science.gov (United States)

Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

2014-01-01

In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.
Cladding failure probability modeling for risk evaluations of fast reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, C.J.; Kramer, J.M.

1987-01-01

This paper develops the methodology to incorporate cladding failure data and associated modeling into risk evaluations of liquid metal-cooled fast reactors (LMRs). Current US innovative designs for metal-fueled pool-type LMRs take advantage of inherent reactivity feedback mechanisms to limit reactor temperature increases in response to classic anticipated-transient-without-scram (ATWS) initiators. Final shutdown without reliance on engineered safety features can then be accomplished if sufficient time is available for operator intervention to terminate fission power production and/or provide auxiliary cooling prior to significant core disruption. Coherent cladding failure under the sustained elevated temperatures of ATWS events serves as one indicator of core disruption. In this paper we combine uncertainties in cladding failure data with uncertainties in calculations of ATWS cladding temperature conditions to calculate probabilities of cladding failure as a function of the time for accident recovery
D ampersand D screening risk evaluation guidance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.; Wollert, D.A.

1995-09-01

The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) facilities. Although this method has been developed for D ampersand D facilities, it can be used for transition (EM-60) facilities as well. The SRE guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the current risk to human health and the environment, exterior to the building, from ongoing or probable releases within a one-year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the current risk to workers, occupants and visitors inside contaminated D ampersand D facilities due to contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the hypothetical risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risks to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form, and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, as determined on a project-by-project basis
Chosen aspects of evaluation of productive processes on the example of productive chains of gear

OpenAIRE

M. Roszak

2005-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to present an original approach to evaluation of the real productive chains, including its utilization as a benchmarking method.Design/methodology/approach: In the paper an analysis of value in the productive chains with account of activities based costs was used. The evaluation of the effectivity was made by econometric coefficients.Findings: The paper presents obtained particular results of the analysis of value in the productive chains indicating effec...
Systematic Review of the Association between Dairy Product Consumption and Risk of Cardiovascular-Related Clinical Outcomes123

Science.gov (United States)

Drouin-Chartier, Jean-Philippe; Brassard, Didier; Tessier-Grenier, Maude; Côté, Julie Anne; Labonté, Marie-Ève; Desroches, Sophie; Couture, Patrick; Lamarche, Benoît

2016-01-01

The objective of this systematic review was to determine if dairy product consumption is detrimental, neutral, or beneficial to cardiovascular health and if the recommendation to consume reduced-fat as opposed to regular-fat dairy is evidence-based. A systematic review of meta-analyses of prospective population studies associating dairy consumption with cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, hypertension, metabolic syndrome (MetS), and type 2 diabetes (T2D) was conducted on the basis of the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) statement. Quality of evidence was rated by using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation scale. High-quality evidence supports favorable associations between total dairy intake and hypertension risk and between low-fat dairy and yogurt intake and the risk of T2D. Moderate-quality evidence suggests favorable associations between intakes of total dairy, low-fat dairy, cheese, and fermented dairy and the risk of stroke; intakes of low-fat dairy and milk and the risk of hypertension; total dairy and milk consumption and the risk of MetS; and total dairy and cheese and the risk of T2D. High- to moderate-quality evidence supports neutral associations between the consumption of total dairy, cheese, and yogurt and CVD risk; the consumption of any form of dairy, except for fermented, and CAD risk; the consumption of regular- and high-fat dairy, milk, and yogurt and stroke risk; the consumption of regular- and high-fat dairy, cheese, yogurt, and fermented dairy and hypertension risk; and the consumption of regular- and high-fat dairy, milk, and fermented dairy and T2D risk. Data from this systematic review indicate that the consumption of various forms of dairy products shows either favorable or neutral associations with cardiovascular-related clinical outcomes. The review also emphasizes that further research is urgently needed to compare the impact of
Ingested Nitrate, Disinfection By-products, and Kidney Cancer Risk in Older Women.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Rena R; Weyer, Peter J; DellaValle, Curt T; Robien, Kim; Cantor, Kenneth P; Krasner, Stuart; Beane Freeman, Laura E; Ward, Mary H

2017-09-01

N-nitroso compounds formed endogenously after nitrate/nitrite ingestion are animal renal carcinogens. Previous epidemiologic studies of drinking water nitrate did not evaluate other potentially toxic water contaminants, including the suspected renal carcinogen chloroform. In a cohort of postmenopausal women in Iowa (1986-2010), we used historical measurements to estimate long-term average concentrations of nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) and disinfection by-products (DBP) in public water supplies. For NO3-N and the regulated DBP (total trihalomethanes [THM] and the sum of five haloacetic acids [HAA5]), we estimated the number of years of exposure above one-half the current maximum contaminant level (>½-MCL NO3-N; >5 mg/L). Dietary intakes were assessed via food frequency questionnaire. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with Cox models, and evaluated interactions with factors influencing N-nitroso compound formation. We identified 125 incident kidney cancers among 15,577 women reporting using water from public supplies >10 years. In multivariable models, risk was higher in the 95th percentile of average NO3-N (HRp95vsQ1 = 2.3; CI: 1.2, 4.3; Ptrend = 0.33) and for any years of exposure >½-MCL; adjustment for total THM did not materially change these associations. There were no independent relationships with total THM, individual THMs chloroform and bromodichloromethane, or with haloacetic acids. Dietary analyses yielded associations with high nitrite intake from processed meats but not nitrate or nitrite overall. We found no interactions. Relatively high nitrate levels in public water supplies were associated with increased risk of renal cancer. Our results also suggest that nitrite from processed meat is a renal cancer risk factor.
Evaluation on lifetime risk in reinforced concrete structure; RC kozo no lifetime risk no hyoka ni kansuru kisoteki kenkyu

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Suzuki, M. [Public Works Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Adachi, H. [Taisei Corp., Tokyo (Japan); Akakura, Y. [Ministry of Transport, Tokyo (Japan); Ibayashi, K.; Ozaka, Y. [Tohoku Gakuin Univ., Sendai (Japan)

1996-02-15

To evaluate the risk during longevity of reinforced concrete structure subjected to earthquake motions, called lifetime risk, damage and safety were estimated by means of the earthquake risk analysis and earthquake response analysis. For the earthquake risk analysis, historical earthquake data with relatively low accuracy were efficiently taken into account, to determine the annual mean generation probability against the earthquake motion strength in ten main cities. A new damage index with load hysteresis was defined as an anti-earthquake evaluation index where accumulative damage is taken into consideration. Assuming that the damage transits from `certain state` to `certain state` every time the earthquake motion generates at the noticeable place, damage transition matrix expressing transition probability was calculated by using the results of earthquake risk analysis and the accumulative damage index. The lifetime risk was calculated from the damage transition matrix and the earthquake motion generation probability, to evaluate the safety. 21 refs., 10 figs., 8 tabs.
Benefits and risks associated with genetically modified food products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marta Kramkowska

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Scientists employing methods of genetic engineering have developed a new group of living organisms, termed ‘modified organisms’, which found application in, among others, medicine, the pharmaceutical industry and food distribution. The introduction of transgenic products to the food market resulted in them becoming a controversial topic, with their proponents and contestants. The presented study aims to systematize objective data on the potential benefits and risks resulting from the consumption of transgenic food. Genetic modifications of plants and animals are justified by the potential for improvement of the food situation worldwide, an increase in yield crops, an increase in the nutritional value of food, and the development of pharmaceutical preparations of proven clinical significance. In the opinions of critics, however, transgenic food may unfavourably affect the health of consumers. Therefore, particular attention was devoted to the short- and long-lasting undesirable effects, such as alimentary allergies, synthesis of toxic agents or resistance to antibiotics. Examples arguing for the justified character of genetic modifications and cases proving that their use can be dangerous are innumerable. In view of the presented facts, however, complex studies are indispensable which, in a reliable way, evaluate effects linked to the consumption of food produced with the application of genetic engineering techniques. Whether one backs up or negates transgenic products, the choice between traditional and non-conventional food remains to be decided exclusively by the consumers.
Stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation and quantitative estimating tsunami risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fukutani, Yo; Anawat, Suppasri; Abe, Yoshi; Imamura, Fumihiko

2014-01-01

We performed a stochastic evaluation of tsunami inundation by using results of stochastic tsunami hazard assessment at the Soma port in the Tohoku coastal area. Eleven fault zones along the Japan trench were selected as earthquake faults generating tsunamis. The results show that estimated inundation area of return period about 1200 years had good agreement with that in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In addition, we evaluated quantitatively tsunami risk for four types of building; a reinforced concrete, a steel, a brick and a wood at the Soma port by combining the results of inundation assessment and tsunami fragility assessment. The results of quantitative estimating risk would reflect properly vulnerability of the buildings, that the wood building has high risk and the reinforced concrete building has low risk. (author)
Evaluation of Nuclear Hydrogen Production System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Won Seok; Park, C. K.; Park, J. K. and others

2006-04-01

The major objective of this work is tow-fold: one is to develop a methodology to determine the best VHTR types for the nuclear hydrogen demonstration project and the other is to evaluate the various hydrogen production methods in terms of the technical feasibility and the effectiveness for the optimization of the nuclear hydrogen system. Both top-tier requirements and design requirements have been defined for the nuclear hydrogen system. For the determination of the VHTR type, a comparative study on the reference reactors, PBR and PBR, was conducted. Based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, a systematic methodology has been developed to compare the two VHTR types. Another scheme to determine the minimum reactor power was developed as well. Regarding the hydrogen production methods, comparison indices were defined and they were applied to the IS (Iodine-Sulfur) scheme, Westinghouse process, and the, high-temperature electrolysis method. For the HTE, IS, and MMI cycle, the thermal efficiency of hydrogen production were systematically evaluated. For the IS cycle, an overall process was identified and the functionality of some key components was identified. The economy of the nuclear hydrogen was evaluated, relative to various primary energy including natural gas coal, grid-electricity, and renewable. For the international collaborations, two joint research centers were established: NH-JRC between Korea and China and NH-JDC between Korea and US. Currently, several joint researches are underway through the research centers
Effects of anchoring and adjustment in the evaluation of product pricing.

Science.gov (United States)

Elaad, Eitan; Sayag, Neta; Ezer, Aliya

2010-08-01

Anchoring and adjustment comprise a heuristic that creates expectations. Two types of anchors were applied on participants' evaluation of products: the price reference of the product (maximum, minimum, or no price reference) and the context in which the products were evaluated (the prestige of the shopping center). Results showed that both factors anchored evaluations of products' value. Context effects were explained by the different expectations of visitors in prestigious (looking for quality) and less prestigious (seeking a bargain) centers.
User's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nancarrow, D.J.; Thorne, M.C.

1986-05-01

The report, commissioned by the Department of the Environment as part of its radioactive waste management research programme, constitutes the user's guide to the repository intrusion risk evaluation code INTRUDE. It provides an explanation of the mathematical basis of the code, the database used and the operation of the code. INTRUDE is designed to facilitate the estimation of individual risks arising from the possibility of intrusion into shallow land burial facilities for radioactive wastes. It considers a comprehensive inventory of up to 65 long-lived radionuclides and produces risk estimates for up to 20 modes of intrusion and up to 50 times of evaluation. (author)
Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

Science.gov (United States)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2015-04-01

Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

Estimating the incremental net health benefit of requirements for cardiovascular risk evaluation for diabetes therapies.

Science.gov (United States)

Chawla, Anita J; Mytelka, Daniel S; McBride, Stephan D; Nellesen, Dave; Elkins, Benjamin R; Ball, Daniel E; Kalsekar, Anupama; Towse, Adrian; Garrison, Louis P

2014-03-01

To evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of pre-approval requirements for safety data to detect cardiovascular (CV) risk contained in the December 2008 U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidance for developing type 2 diabetes drugs compared with the February 2008 FDA draft guidance from the perspective of diabetes population health. We applied the incremental net health benefit (INHB) framework to quantify the benefits and risks of investigational diabetes drugs using a common survival metric (life-years [LYs]). We constructed a decision analytic model for clinical program development consistent with the requirements of each guidance and simulated diabetes drugs, some of which had elevated CV risk. Assuming constant research budgets, we estimate the impact of increased trial size on drugs investigated. We aggregate treatment benefit and CV risks for each approved drug over a 35-year horizon under each guidance. The quantitative analysis suggests that the December 2008 guidance adversely impacts diabetes population health. INHB was -1.80 million LYs, attributable to delayed access to diabetes therapies (-0 .18 million LYs) and fewer drugs (-1.64 million LYs), but partially offset by reduced CV risk exposure (0.02 million LYs). Results were robust in sensitivity analyses. The health outcomes impact of all potential benefits and risks should be evaluated in a common survival measure, including health gain from avoided adverse events, lost health benefits from delayed or for gone efficacious products, and impact of alternative policy approaches. Quantitative analysis of the December 2008 FDA guidance for diabetes therapies indicates that negative impact on patient health will result. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
NanoRiskCat: a conceptual tool for categorization and communication of exposure potentials and hazards of nanomaterials in consumer products

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Steffen Foss; Jensen, Keld Alstrup; Baun, Anders

2014-01-01

The literature on nano(eco)toxicology is growing rapidly and has become increasingly difficult to interpret. We have developed a systematic tool called NanoRiskCat that can support companies and regulators in their first-tier assessment and communication on what they know about the hazard and exposure potential of consumer products containing engineered nanomaterials. The final outcome of NanoRiskCat is communicated in the form of a short-title describing the intended use and five colored dots. The first three dots refer to the qualitative exposure potential for professional end-users, consumers and the environment, whereas the last two refers to the hazard potential for humans and the environment. Each dot can be assigned one of four different colors, i.e. red, yellow, green, and gray indicating high, medium, low, and unknown, respectively. In this paper, we first introduce the criteria used to evaluate the exposure potential and the human and environmental hazards of specific uses of the nanoproduct. We then apply NanoRiskCat to eight different nanoproducts. The human and environmental exposure potential was found to be high (i.e., red) for many of the products due to direct application on skin and subsequent environmental release. In the NanoRiskCat evaluation, many of the nanomaterials achieve a red human and environmental hazard profile as there is compelling in vivo evidence to associate them with irreversible effects, e.g., carcinogenicity, respiratory, and cardiovascular effects, etc., in laboratory animals. A significant strength of NanoRiskCat is that it can be used even in cases where lack of data is prominent.
Evaluation of the environmental impact of apple pest control strategies using pesticide risk indicators.

Science.gov (United States)

Ioriatti, Claudio; Agnello, Arthur M; Martini, Fabrizio; Kovach, Joseph

2011-10-01

Various pesticide risk indicators have been developed for estimating pesticide impact on human health and the environment. The present work applied a pesticide risk indicator to estimate change in pesticide risk in apple production between 2001 and 2009. The "Environmental Impact Quotient" was used, which evaluates potential impacts of pesticide active ingredients on farm workers, consumers, and nontarget organisms. A modified Environmental Impact Quotient was also tested, which accounts for all ingredients in the formulation presenting a health or environmental hazard, as identified in the Security Data Sheet. Irrespective of the rating system applied, an overall average improvement in environmental impact of apple protection strategies was indicated ranging from 23 to 24%. Hazard reduction was more significant when estimated per treatment, and was higher for acaricides and insecticides than for fungicides. Improvement appeared to be a consequence of using more selective and more effective active ingredients, applying alternative pest control techniques, compulsory periodic sprayer calibration, and wider use of dwarfing orchards. The modified Environmental Impact Quotient does not overcome all limitations regarding accuracy of pesticide risk indicators, but its ease of use in relying on official, easily accessible data, and the consistency of its results, makes it a good candidate for monitoring the success of reduced risk policies. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.
Risk of discontinuation of Advanced Therapy Medicinal Products clinical trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanna, Eve; Rémuzat, Cecile; Auquier, Pascal; Toumi, Mondher

2016-01-01

Advanced therapy medicinal products (ATMPs) constitute a class of innovative products that encompasses gene therapy, somatic cell therapy, and tissue-engineered products (TEP). There is an increased investment of commercial and non-commercial sponsors in this field and a growing number of ATMPs randomized clinical trials (RCT) and patients enrolled in such trials. RCT generate data to prove the efficacy of a new therapy, but the discontinuation of RCTs wastes scarce resources. Our objective is to identify the number and characteristics of discontinued ATMPs trials in order to evaluate the rate of discontinuation. We searched for ATMPs trials conducted between 1999 to June 2015 using three databases, which are Clinicaltrials.gov, the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), and the EU Drug Regulating Authorities Clinical Trials (EudraCT). We selected the ATMPs trials after elimination of the duplicates. We identified the disease areas and the sponsors as commercial or non-commercial organizations. We classified ATMPs by type and trial status, that is, ongoing, completed, terminated, discontinued, and prematurely ended. Then, we calculated the rate of discontinuation. Between 1999 and June 2015, 143 withdrawn, terminated, or prematurely ended ATMPs clinical trials were identified. Between 1999 and June 2013, 474 ongoing and completed clinical trials were identified. Therefore, the rate of discontinuation of ATMPs trials is 23.18%, similar to that for non-ATMPs drugs in development. The probability of discontinuation is, respectively, 27.35, 16.28, and 16.34% for cell therapies, gene therapies, and TEP. The highest discontinuation rate is for oncology (43%), followed by cardiology (19.2%). It is almost the same for commercial and non-commercial sponsors; therefore, the discontinuation reason may not be financially driven. No failure risk rate per development phase is available for ATMPs. The discontinuation rate may prove helpful when assessing the
Tobacco and Nicotine Product Testing

Science.gov (United States)

Biener, Lois; Leischow, Scott J.; Zeller, Mitch R.

2012-01-01

Introduction: Tobacco product testing is a critical component of the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act (FSPTCA), which grants the Food and Drug Administration the authority to regulate tobacco products. The availability of methods and measures that can provide accurate data on the relative health risks across types of tobacco products, brands, and subbrands of tobacco products on the validity of any health claims associated with a product, and on how consumers perceive information on products toxicity or risks is crucial for making decisions on the product's potential impact on public health. These tools are also necessary for making assessments of the impact of new indications for medicinal products (other than cessation) but more importantly of tobacco products that may in the future be marketed as cessation tools. Objective: To identify research opportunities to develop empirically based and comprehensive methods and measures for testing tobacco and other nicotine-containing products so that the best science is available when decisions are made about products or policies. Methods: Literature was reviewed to address sections of the FSPTCA relevant to tobacco product evaluation; research questions were generated and then reviewed by a committee of research experts. Results: A research agenda was developed for tobacco product evaluation in the general areas of toxicity and health risks, abuse liability, consumer perception, and population effects. Conclusion: A cohesive, systematic, and comprehensive assessment of tobacco products is important and will require building consensus and addressing some crucial research questions. PMID:21460383
Risk assessment on the use of herbal medicinal products containing pyrrolizidine alkaloids.

Science.gov (United States)

Allgaier, Clemens; Franz, Stephanie

2015-11-01

Pyrrolizidine alkaloids (PA) are common plantal toxins directed against insect herbivores. Unsaturated PAs are known to be hepatotoxic. Many of the PAs are in addition mutagenic and some may possibly be carcinogenic for humans. The risk of an exposure to PAs associated with their occurrence in herbal medicinal products and in foodstuff is under current discussion. The present risk assessment for herbal medicinal products containing PAs is based on a margin of safety derivation for foodstuff indicating that a life-long exposure to maximally 0.007 μg/kg bw/day is not expected to be associated with safety concerns. This approach offers a possibility to estimate the potential risk of PA-containing herbal medicinal products irrespective of the route of administration. It assumes PA levels in the final herbal medicinal product below 0.01 ppm and considers for dermal administration a 100% skin penetration of the PAs reflecting a worst-case scenario. As a result, the calculated margins of safety show a potential exposure using herbal medicinal products 70-, 45.5-, and 19.3-fold lower on a one-day base and 608-, 396-, and 168- fold lower on a one-year base for adults, children aged 12 years, and children aged 4 years, respectively, than the thresholds considered acceptable for foodstuff. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Prevalence of porcine cysticercosis and associated risk factors in smallholder pig production systems in Mbeya region, southern highlands of Tanzania

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Komba, Erick V. G.; Kimbi, Eliakunda C.; Ngowi, Helena A.

2013-01-01

in smallholder pig production systems in Mbeya region, the major pig rearing region of Tanzania. A cross-sectional survey employing a random sample of 300 pig keepers from 30 villages of Mbozi and Mbeya Rural districts, Mbeya region were used to evaluate pig production systems and practices. Concurrently, 600...... of water from rivers (OR=3.1; 95% CI=1.6-6.3; p... of important risk factors in smallholder pig management that may be addressed (e.g. confinement, quality of pens and water sources) in future interventions and educational campaigns for control of T. solium....
Consumption of dairy products in youth, does it protect from cardio-metabolic risk?

Science.gov (United States)

Santaliestra-Pasías, Alba M; Bel-Serrat, Silvia; Moreno, Luis A; Bueno, Gloria

2016-07-12

Introduction: The high prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents is considered as a major global health concern and involves the onset of other comorbidities such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, chronic infl ammation and hyperinsulinemia, which are also considered as cardiovascular diseases risk factors. Several studies have observed that consumption of dairy products has a protective role on the development of cardiovascular diseases; however, the scientific evidence on this topic is very limited among children and adolescents. Objectives: To investigate the association between dairy products consumption and cardiovascular risk factors in young populations. Material and methods: The most up-to-date literature was reviewed, including some data from the HELENA (Healthy Lifestyle in Europe by Nutrition in Adolescence) study. A sample of adolescents (12.5-17.5 years) from 8 European cities was considered for the analysis. Results: US data showed a decrease in both number of servings and portion sizes of milk consumption. Within the HELENA study, dairy products emerged as the food group that better distinguished those adolescents at lower cardiovascular diseases risk. Among the HELENA adolescents, higher consumption of milk, yogurt and milk- and yogurt-based beverages was associated with lower body fat, lower risk for cardiovascular diseases, and higher cardiorespiratory fitness. Conclusions: More studies are needed to provide more evidence and to better understand the intrinsic mechanisms of the association between dairy products consumption, especially yogurt consumption, and obesity, diabetes, and other cardiovascular diseases risk factors.
Evaluating the effectiveness of risk minimisation measures: the application of a conceptual framework to Danish real-world dabigatran data.

Science.gov (United States)

Nyeland, Martin Erik; Laursen, Mona Vestergaard; Callréus, Torbjörn

2017-06-01

For both marketing authorization holders and regulatory authorities, evaluating the effectiveness of risk minimization measures is now an integral part of pharmacovigilance in the European Union. The overall aim of activities in this area is to assess the performance of risk minimization measures implemented in order to ensure a positive benefit-risk balance in patients treated with a medicinal product. Following a review of the relevant literature, we developed a conceptual framework consisting of four domains (data, knowledge, behaviour and outcomes) intended for the evaluation of risk minimization measures put into practice in the Danish health-care system. For the implementation of the framework, four classes of monitoring variables can be named and defined: patient descriptors, performance-related indicators of knowledge, behaviour and outcomes. We reviewed the features of the framework when applied to historical, real-world data following the introduction of dabigatran in Denmark for the prophylactic treatment of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. The application of the framework provided useful graphical displays and an opportunity for a statistical evaluation (interrupted time series analysis) of a regulatory intervention. © 2017 Commonwealth of Australia. Pharmacoepidemiology & Drug Safety © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2017 Commonwealth of Australia. Pharmacoepidemiology & Drug Safety © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Diagnosis and Tests: Evaluating a Fall or Risk of Falling

Science.gov (United States)

... as a physical therapist, who can evaluate your fall risk. If your healthcare provider concludes that you are ... to check for things that can impact your fall risk, such as electrolyte balance and the possibility of ...
Credit Risk Evaluation System: An Artificial Neural Network Approach

African Journals Online (AJOL)

On the other hand, this kind of bank's activity is connected with high risk as big amount of bad decisions may even cause bankruptcy. The key problem consists of distinguishing good (that surely repay) and bad (that likely default) credit applicants. Credit risk evaluation is an important and interesting management science ...
Offshore wind turbine risk quantification/evaluation under extreme environmental conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taflanidis, Alexandros A.; Loukogeorgaki, Eva; Angelides, Demos C.

2013-01-01

A simulation-based framework is discussed in this paper for quantification/evaluation of risk and development of automated risk assessment tools, focusing on applications to offshore wind turbines under extreme environmental conditions. The framework is founded on a probabilistic characterization of the uncertainty in the models for the excitation, the turbine and its performance. Risk is then quantified as the expected value of some risk consequence measure over the probability distributions considered for the uncertain model parameters. Stochastic simulation is proposed for the risk assessment, corresponding to the evaluation of some associated probabilistic integral quantifying risk, as it allows for the adoption of comprehensive computational models for describing the dynamic turbine behavior. For improvement of the computational efficiency, a surrogate modeling approach is introduced based on moving least squares response surface approximations. The assessment is also extended to a probabilistic sensitivity analysis that identifies the importance of each of the uncertain model parameters, i.e. risk factors, towards the total risk as well as towards each of the failure modes contributing to this risk. The versatility and computational efficiency of the advocated approaches is finally exploited to support the development of standalone risk assessment applets for automated implementation of the probabilistic risk quantification/assessment. -- Highlights: ► A simulation-based risk quantification/assessment framework is discussed. ► Focus is on offshore wind turbines under extreme environmental conditions. ► Approach is founded on probabilistic description of excitation/system model parameters. ► Surrogate modeling is adopted for improved computational efficiency. ► Standalone risk assessment applets for automated implementation are supported
Evaluation of tile layer productivity in construction project

Science.gov (United States)

Aziz, Hamidi Abdul; Hassan, Siti Hafizan; Rosly, Noorsyalili; Ul-Saufie, Ahmad Zia

2017-10-01

Construction is a key sector of the national economy for countries all over the world. Until today, construction industries are still facing lots of problems concerning the low productivity, poor safety and insufficient quality. Labour productivity is one of the factors that will give impact to the quality of projects. This study is focusing on evaluating the tile layer productivity in the area of Seberang Perai, Penang. The objective of this study is to determine the relationship of age and experience of tile layers with their productivity and to evaluate the effect of nationality to tile layers productivity. Interview and site observation of tile layers has been conducted to obtain the data of age, experience and nationality of tile layers. Site observation is made to obtain the number of tiles installed for every tile layer for the duration of 1 hour, and the data were analysed by using Statistical Package for Social Science (IBM SPSS Statistic 23) software. As a result, there is a moderate linear relationship between age and experience of tile layers with their productivity. The age of 30 and the experience of 4 years give the highest productivity. It also can be concluded that the tile layers from Indonesia tend to have higher productivity compared to tile layers from Myanmar.
Economic evaluation of private power production under uncertainties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weiguo Xing; Wu, F.F. [University of Hong Kong (China). Centre for Electrical Energy Systems

2003-02-01

Private power production is becoming an increasingly important source of electricity generation. In developing countries, build-operate-transfer (BOT) arrangement has emerged as a dominant form of private investment. Pricing private power production at its avoided cost is the breakeven point for the utility in economic evaluation, and uncertainties must be taken into account. In this paper, an approach of calculating the breakeven cost to the utility of a BOT power plant whose contract lasts for 10-25 years is proposed. The proposed approach requires the computation of production costs from long-term generation expansion planning (GEP) under future uncertainties. To facilitate the inclusion of constraints introduced by BOT plants in GEP and uncertainties, a genetic algorithm method is utilized in GEP. The breakeven cost is a useful measure in the economic evaluation of BOT power plants. An example is presented to illustrate the economic evaluation of BOT plants using the concept of breakeven cost.(author)
Evaluating intergenerational risks: Probabillity adjusted rank-discounted utilitarianism

OpenAIRE

Asheim, Geir B.; Zuber, Stéphane

2015-01-01

Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). As a response we propose and axiomatize probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU), through a key axiom that requires that the social welfare order both be ethical and satisfy first...
Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

2016-07-01

Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Oxidation of ciprofloxacin and enrofloxacin by ferrate(VI): Products identification, and toxicity evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Bin; Kookana, Rai S.; Williams, Mike; Ying, Guang-Guo; Du, Jun; Doan, Hai; Kumar, Anupama

2016-01-01

Ferrate(VI) (Fe(VI)) has been known to react with emerging organic contaminants containing electron-rich organic moieties, such as phenols, anilines, olefins, reduced sulfur and deprotonated amines. Oxidation of fluoroquinolone antibiotics, ciprofloxacin (CIP) and enrofloxacin (ENR), by Fe(VI) were investigated for their reaction products and toxicity changes as well as biodegradability of these products. Ten products were identified for both CIP and ENR reactions with Fe(VI) using a high-resolution accurate-mass Orbitrap mass analyzer. Structural changes to the CIP and ENR molecule included dealkylation, formation of alcohols and amides in piperazine ring and oxygen transfer to the double bond in quinolone structure. An enamine formation mechanism was tentatively proposed to facilitate the interpretation of CIP and ENR oxidation pathways. Toxicity evaluation using Microbial Assay for toxicity Risk Assessment (MARA) bioassay indicated that Fe(VI) oxidation products of CIP and ENR contributed negligible antibacterial potency and Fe(VI) oxidation treatment can remove the residual toxicity of CIP and ENR impacted source waters. The Fe(VI) oxidation treatment resulted in formation of relatively more biodegradable products (based on in silico assessment) than their corresponding parent compounds. The results showed that Fe(VI) has a good potential to degrade fluoroquinolone antibiotics and their antimicrobial potency in natural waters.
Oxidation of ciprofloxacin and enrofloxacin by ferrate(VI): Products identification, and toxicity evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Bin, E-mail: Bin.Yang@csiro.au [CSIRO Land and Water, Waite Campus, PMB 2, Glen Osmond, South Australia 5064 (Australia); Kookana, Rai S.; Williams, Mike [CSIRO Land and Water, Waite Campus, PMB 2, Glen Osmond, South Australia 5064 (Australia); Ying, Guang-Guo [State Key Laboratory of Organic Geochemistry, Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640 (China); Du, Jun; Doan, Hai; Kumar, Anupama [CSIRO Land and Water, Waite Campus, PMB 2, Glen Osmond, South Australia 5064 (Australia)

2016-12-15

Ferrate(VI) (Fe(VI)) has been known to react with emerging organic contaminants containing electron-rich organic moieties, such as phenols, anilines, olefins, reduced sulfur and deprotonated amines. Oxidation of fluoroquinolone antibiotics, ciprofloxacin (CIP) and enrofloxacin (ENR), by Fe(VI) were investigated for their reaction products and toxicity changes as well as biodegradability of these products. Ten products were identified for both CIP and ENR reactions with Fe(VI) using a high-resolution accurate-mass Orbitrap mass analyzer. Structural changes to the CIP and ENR molecule included dealkylation, formation of alcohols and amides in piperazine ring and oxygen transfer to the double bond in quinolone structure. An enamine formation mechanism was tentatively proposed to facilitate the interpretation of CIP and ENR oxidation pathways. Toxicity evaluation using Microbial Assay for toxicity Risk Assessment (MARA) bioassay indicated that Fe(VI) oxidation products of CIP and ENR contributed negligible antibacterial potency and Fe(VI) oxidation treatment can remove the residual toxicity of CIP and ENR impacted source waters. The Fe(VI) oxidation treatment resulted in formation of relatively more biodegradable products (based on in silico assessment) than their corresponding parent compounds. The results showed that Fe(VI) has a good potential to degrade fluoroquinolone antibiotics and their antimicrobial potency in natural waters.
Risk informed inservice inspection evaluation of the ComEd nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleming, K.N.; Hutchinson, J.J.

2000-01-01

In November, 1999 Commonwealth Edison Company began the largest scope project yet performed to implement risk informed in-service inspection programs for piping systems. A contractor team led by ERIN Engineering and Research was selected to perform full scope risk informed evaluations on ten reactor units at five sites including 3 BWR and 2 PWR stations. This risk informed evaluation has applied a number of advancements to RISI technology in key areas including risk quantification of inspection program changes, element selection, treatment of multiple damage mechanisms at a given location, and in streamlining an approach to RISI initially developed by EPRI. The scope of the evaluation covered more than 18,000 ASME Class 1 and 2 welds not counting those that will continue to be inspected as part of augmented programs for flow accelerated corrosion, stress corrosion cracking, and service water systems. When the current ASME Section XI based exams are replaced by the risk informed program, while some new inspection locations will be added, substantial cost savings and person-rem exposures are projected from the elimination of most of the current exams. ComEd expects to recover its investment in the RISI evaluation for each of the 10 reactor units in 1 to 2 refueling outages, from the cost savings of reduced inspections. At the same time, the risk of a severe accident due to pipe ruptures is not expected to exhibit significant changes. (author)
Bacillus cereus in personal care products: risk to consumers.

Science.gov (United States)

Pitt, T L; McClure, J; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; McClure, P J

2015-04-01

Bacillus cereus is ubiquitous in nature and thus occurs naturally in a wide range of raw materials and foodstuffs. B. cereus spores are resistant to desiccation and heat and able to survive dry storage and cooking. Vegetative cells produce several toxins which on ingestion in sufficient numbers can cause vomiting and/or diarrhoea depending on the toxins produced. Gastrointestinal disease is commonly associated with reheated or inadequately cooked foods. In addition to being a rare cause of several acute infections (e.g. pneumonia and septicaemia), B. cereus can also cause localized infection of post-surgical or trauma wounds and is a rare but significant pathogen of the eye where it may result in severe endophthalmitis often leading to loss of vision. Key risk factors in such cases are trauma to the eye and retained contaminated intraocular foreign bodies. In addition, rare cases of B. cereus-associated keratitis (inflammation of the cornea) have been linked to contact lens use. Bacillus cereus is therefore a microbial contaminant that could adversely affect product safety of cosmetic and facial toiletries and pose a threat to the user if other key risk factors are also present. The infective dose in the human eye is unknown, but as few as 100 cfu has been reported to initiate infection in a susceptible animal model. However, we are not aware of any reports in the literature of B. cereus infections in any body site linked with use of personal care products. Low levels of B. cereus spores may on occasion be present in near-eye cosmetics, and these products have been used by consumers for many years. In addition, exposure to B. cereus is more likely to occur through other routes (e.g. dustborne contamination) due to its ubiquity and resistance properties of spores. The organism has been recovered from the eyes of healthy individuals. Therefore, although there may be a perceived hazard, the risk of severe eye infections as a consequence of exposure through

Risk evaluation of impurities in topical excipients: The acetol case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jente Boonen

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Pharmaceutical excipients for topical use may contain impurities, which are often neglected from a toxicity qualification viewpoint. The possible impurities in the most frequently used topical excipients were evaluated in-silico for their toxicity hazard. Acetol, an impurity likely present in different topical pharmaceutical excipients such as propylene glycol and glycerol, was withheld for the evaluation of its health risk after dermal exposure.An ex-vivo in-vitro permeation study using human skin in a Franz Diffusion Cell set-up and GC as quantification methodology showed a significant skin penetration with an overall Kp value of 1.82Ã10â3Â cm/h. Using these data, limit specifications after application of a dermal pharmaceutical product were estimated. Based on the TTC approach of Cramer class I substances, i.e. 1800Â Âµg/(dayâperson, the toxicity-qualified specification limits of acetol in topical excipients were calculated to be 90Â Âµg/mL and 180Â Âµg/mL for propylene glycol and glycerol, respectively.It is concluded that setting specification limits for impurities within a quality-by-design approach requires a case-by-case evaluation as demonstrated here with acetol. Keywords: Acetol, Impurity, Excipients, Transdermal penetration, Specification limits
An evaluation of the Well at Dell health management program: health risk change and financial return on investment.

Science.gov (United States)

Musich, Shirley; McCalister, Tre'; Wang, Sara; Hawkins, Kevin

2015-01-01

To investigate the effectiveness of the Well at Dell comprehensive health management program in delivering health care and productivity cost savings relative to program investment (i.e., return on investment). A quasi-experimental design was used to quantify the financial impact of the program and nonexperimental pre-post design to evaluate change in health risks. Ongoing worksite health management program implemented across multiple U.S. locations. Subjects were 24,651 employees with continuous medical enrollment in 2010-2011 who were eligible for 2011 health management programming. Incentive-driven, outcomes-based multicomponent corporate health management program including health risk appraisal (HRA)/wellness, lifestyle management, and disease management coaching programs. Medical, pharmacy, and short-term disability pre/post expenditure trends adjusted for demographics, health status, and baseline costs. Self-reported health risks from repeat HRA completers. Analysis: Propensity score-weighted and multivariate regression-adjusted comparison of baseline to post trends in health care expenditures and productivity costs for program participants and nonparticipants (i.e., difference in difference) relative to programmatic investment. The Well at Dell program achieved an overall return on investment of 2.48 in 2011. Most of the savings were realized from the HRA/wellness component of the program. Cost savings were supported with high participation and significant health risk improvement. An incentive-driven, well-managed comprehensive corporate health management program can continue to achieve significant health improvement while promoting health care and productivity cost savings in an employee population.
Evaluación de percepción de riesgo ocupacional // Occupational risk perception evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Teresa Carbonell - Siam

2010-09-01

Full Text Available En el artículo se realiza un análisis de la percepción del riesgo como fenómeno comprometedor deldesarrollo tecnológico, así como generador de errores humanos, principales contribuyentes a laocurrencia de accidentes industriales y laborales. En base a una revisión detallada de varias de lasmetodologías de análisis de percepción de riesgo, el documento presenta el diseño de lametodología de Evaluación de Percepción de Riesgo Ocupacional (EPRO, que puede sergeneralizada para otros objetivos de estudio. Finalmente se ofrecen los resultados de una aplicaciónen una planta de producción de un laboratorio farmacéutico.Palabras claves: riesgo, percepción de riesgo, errores humanos, variables de percepción de riesgo,evaluación de percepción de riesgo.___________________________________________________________________________AbstractThe paper presents the analysis of risk perception as a compromising phenomenon of thetechnological development, and as an important source of human errors, the main contributors to theindustrial and occupational accidents. Based on a detailed review of several risk perceptionmethodologies, it is presented the design of the Occupational Risk Perception Analysis (EPRO inspanish, which can be generalized to others objectives of study. Finally, it is presented the results ofthe application of EPRO to the Production Plant of a pharmaceutical laboratory.Key words: risk, risk perception, human errors, risk perception variables, risk perception evaluation.
Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies for drugs with abuse liability: public interest, special interest, conflicts of interest, and the industry perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, Curtis; Schnoll, Sidney; Bernstein, David

2008-10-01

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) formerly known as Risk Minimization Action Plans (RiskMAPs) are a regulatory technique for dealing with anticipated risks of new medications and are especially important for new drugs with abuse potential. This paper describes the origin and history of risk-management plans for drugs that might be abused, the proper use of these plans in minimizing the risk to the public, and the special difficulties inherent in managing risks for drugs with abuse potential. Drugs with abuse liability are distinctive since the risks inherent in manufacture and distribution include not only risks to patients prescribed the medications, but also risks to the general public including subgroups in the population not intended to get the drug and who receive no medical benefit from the medication. The crafting of risk-management plans intended to protect nonpatient populations is unique for these products. The content, extent, and level of intensity of these plans affect areas of medical ethics, civil liability, and criminal prosecution. The need for risk-management plans for drugs with abuse liability can potentially act as a deterrent to investment and is a factor in decisions concerning the development of new medications for the treatments of pain, ADHD, anxiety disorders, and addictions. This paper provides a framework for moving the process of REMS development forward and criteria for evaluating the probity and adequacy of such programs.
Occupational health risk assessment of volatile organic compounds emitted from the coke production unit of a steel plant.

Science.gov (United States)

Dehghani, Fateme; Omidi, Fariborz; Heravizadeh, Omidreza; Barati Chamgordani, Saied; Gharibi, Vahid; Sotoudeh Manesh, Akbar

2018-03-27

In this study, cancer and non-cancer risks of exposure to volatile organic compounds in the coke production unit of a steel plant were evaluated. To determine individual exposure to benzene, toluene, xylene and ethylbenzene, personal samples were taken from the breathing zone of workers according to National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) method 1501. Cancer and non-cancer risk assessment was performed, using US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) methods. Samples analysis showed that the concentration of benzene in the energy and biochemistry and the benzol refinement sections was higher than occupational exposure limits. The cancer risk for benzene in all sections was significantly higher than allowable limit; the non-cancer risk for benzene in all sections and toluene in the benzol refinement section was also higher than 1.0. In conclusion, the current control measures are not sufficient and should be improved for efficient control of occupational exposures.
Multiple energy supply risks, optimal reserves, and optimal domestic production capacities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zweifel, P.; Ferrari, M.

1992-01-01

This study starts from the observation that today's Western trading nations are exposed to multiple risks of energy supplies, e.g. simultaneous shortage of oil and electricity supplies. To cope with these risks, oil can be stockpiled as well as domestic capacity for power production built up. Adopting the viewpoint of a policy maker who aims at minimizing the expected cost of security of supply, optimal simultaneous adjustments of oil stocks and electric production capacities to exogenous changes such as economic growth are derived. Against this benchmark, one-dimensional rules such as 'oil reserves for 90 days' turn out to be not only suboptimal but also to foster adjustments that exacerbate suboptimality. 9 refs., 1 tabs
Biological risks associated with consumption of reptile products

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Magnino, S.; Colin, P.; Dei-Cas, E.

2009-01-01

recently increased in some areas of the world. Biological risks associated with the consumption of products from both farmed and wild reptile meat and eggs include infections caused by bacteria (Salmonella spp., Vibrio spp.). parasites (Spirometra, Trichinella, Gnathostoma, pentastomids), as well...... to increase the occurrence of biological hazards in reptile meat. Application of GHP, GMP and HACCP procedures, respectively at farm and slaughterhouse level, is crucial for controlling the hazards.......The consumption of a wide variety of species of reptiles caught from the wild has been an important source of protein for humans world-wide for millennia. Terrapins. snakes, lizards, crocodiles and iguanas are now farmed and the consumption and trade of their meat and other edible products have...
Risk evaluation and monitoring in multiple sclerosis therapeutics.

Science.gov (United States)

Clanet, Michel C; Wolinsky, Jerry S; Ashton, Raymond J; Hartung, Hans-Peter; Reingold, Stephen C

2014-09-01

Risk for multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMT) must be assessed on an ongoing basis. Early concerns regarding the first-approved DMTs for MS have been mitigated, but recently licensed therapies have been linked to possibly greater risks. The objective of this review is to discuss risk assessment in MS therapeutics based on an international workshop and comprehensive literature search and recommend strategies for risk assessment/monitoring. Assessment and perception of therapeutic risks vary between patients, doctors and regulators. Acceptability of risk depends on the magnitude of risk and the demonstrated clinical benefits of any agent. Safety signals must be distinguishable from chance occurrences in a clinical trial and in long-term use of medications. Post-marketing research is crucial for assessing longer-term safety in large patient cohorts. Reporting of adverse events is becoming more proactive, allowing more rapid identification of risks. Communication about therapeutic risks and their relationship to clinical benefit must involve patients in shared decision making. It is difficult to produce a general risk-assessment algorithm for all MS therapies. Specific algorithms are required for each DMT in every treated-patient population. New and evolving risks must be evaluated and communicated rapidly to allow patients and physicians to be well informed and able to share treatment decisions. © The Author(s) 2013.
Evaluation of severe accident risk in the Pickering a risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dinnie, K.S.; Raina, V.M.

1997-01-01

The nature of the design of commercial power plants is such that significant impacts on public health can only occur if a number of barriers fail. Rigorous design and licensing requirements ensure that the more likely accidents do not fail all these barriers and their contribution to risk is likely to be small. The task of estimating accident risk must, therefore, focus more towards those less likely but potentially more serious combinations of failures that are characterized by the following: a) a large release of fission products into the containment atmosphere, b) a breach in the containment envelope, and c) the existence of a driving force to expel the containment atmosphere to the outside environment. The likelihood of such conditions existing simultaneously during the course of an accident is expected to be small, such that experience and data regarding the behaviour of plant systems under such conditions is sparse or non-existent. The challenge of Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) is to examine the potential for severe accidents using approaches that are sufficiently detailed and realistic to provide valid information regarding plant risk and susceptibilities, while simple enough to keep the analysis manageable. This paper outlines the key features of the Pickering A Risk Assessment (PARA) (1) and the manner in which it addresses these issues, and provides some insights into the results and conclusions drawn from the study. (author)
Rainfall Product Evaluation for the TRMM Ground Validation Program

Science.gov (United States)

Amitai, E.; Wolff, D. B.; Robinson, M.; Silberstein, D. S.; Marks, D. A.; Kulie, M. S.; Fisher, B.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Evaluation of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observations is conducted through a comprehensive Ground Validation (GV) Program. Standardized instantaneous and monthly rainfall products are routinely generated using quality-controlled ground based radar data from four primary GV sites. As part of the TRMM GV program, effort is being made to evaluate these GV products and to determine the uncertainties of the rainfall estimates. The evaluation effort is based on comparison to rain gauge data. The variance between the gauge measurement and the true averaged rain amount within the radar pixel is a limiting factor in the evaluation process. While monthly estimates are relatively simple to evaluate, the evaluation of the instantaneous products are much more of a challenge. Scattegrams of point comparisons between radar and rain gauges are extremely noisy for several reasons (e.g. sample volume discrepancies, timing and navigation mismatches, variability of Z(sub e)-R relationships), and therefore useless for evaluating the estimates. Several alternative methods, such as the analysis of the distribution of rain volume by rain rate as derived from gauge intensities and from reflectivities above the gauge network will be presented. Alternative procedures to increase the accuracy of the estimates and to reduce their uncertainties also will be discussed.
Cladding failure probability modeling for risk evaluations of fast reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, C.J.; Kramer, J.M.

1987-01-01

This paper develops the methodology to incorporate cladding failure data and associated modeling into risk evaluations of liquid metal-cooled fast reactors (LMRs). Current U.S. innovative designs for metal-fueled pool-type LMRs take advantage of inherent reactivity feedback mechanisms to limit reactor temperature increases in response to classic anticipated-transient-without-scram (ATWS) initiators. Final shutdown without reliance on engineered safety features can then be accomplished if sufficient time is available for operator intervention to terminate fission power production and/or provide auxiliary cooling prior to significant core disruption. Coherent cladding failure under the sustained elevated temperatures of ATWS events serves as one indicator of core disruption. In this paper we combine uncertainties in cladding failure data with uncertainties in calculations of ATWS cladding temperature conditions to calculate probabilities of cladding failure as a function of the time for accident recovery. (orig.)
Job Stress Risk Factors Among Power Generation and Machine Production Employees: A Case Study-2010

OpenAIRE

Z. Naghavi; M.R. Hajgholami; Y. Shokoohi; F. Zayeri

2013-01-01

Background and Objective: Job stress has been adverse effects on performance, quality of work, absents, unsafe behaviors and occupational accidents and also health problems. Risk factors of job stress can be different in various workplaces. Risk factors determination is the first step of job stress management. Identifying these risk factors among workers of Power production & Machine production industries was the aim of this study. Methods: First parts of Osipow questionnaire was used for ...
Evaluation of water footprint and economic water productivities of dairy products of South Africa

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Owusu-Sekyere, Enoch; Jordaan, Henry; Chouchane, Hatem

2017-01-01

Assessment of water footprint sustainability indicators and economic water productivities is regarded as a cornerstone of the world's sustainability goal and the reduction of the fresh water scarcity risk. These assessments are gaining much prominence because about four billion people face severe
Seismic risk evaluation for high voltage air insulated substations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Camensig, Carlo; Bresesti, Luca; Clementel, Stefano; Salvetti, Maurizio

1997-01-01

This paper describes the results of the analytical and experimental activities performed by ISMES for the evaluation of the structural reliability of electrical substations with respect to seismic events. In the following, the reference station is described along with the methods used to define the site seismic input, the analytical and experimental evaluation of the components' fragility curves and the whole station seismic risk evaluation
The Politics of Co-Production: Risks, Limits and Pollution

Science.gov (United States)

Flinders, Matthew; Wood, Matthew; Cunningham, Malaika

2016-01-01

Co-production is a risky method of social inquiry. It is time-consuming, ethically complex, emotionally demanding, inherently unstable, vulnerable to external shocks, subject to competing demands and it challenges many disciplinary norms. This is what makes it so fresh and innovative. And yet these research-related risks are rarely discussed and,…
Risk Analysis Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Maglev Train Bogie

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chengxin Fan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The maglev bogie is the key subsystem for maglev train security. To ensure life and property security, it is essential to evaluate its risk level before its operation. In this paper, a combinational method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed to assess hazards in a complex maglev bogie system associated with multiple subsystems’ failures. The very comprehensive identification of risk sources has been done by analyzing the structure of maglev bogie. Furthermore, based on the fuzzy theory, linguistic evaluation set is classified according to risk tolerance. The score of each risk factor is obtained by weighted sum of the result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Our results show that the degree of maglev bogie’s risk is within the range of acceptability. The merits of this work facilitate finding the weak links and determining the maintenance of maglev bogie system.
Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong-Liang Qi

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China. The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.
Regional Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters for the Trunk-Highway in Shaanxi, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Hong-Liang; Tian, Wei-Ping; Li, Jia-Chun

2015-10-29

Due to the complicated environment there are various types of highway disasters in Shaanxi Province (China). The damages caused are severe, losses are heavy, and have rapidly increased over the years, especially those caused by flood disasters along the rivers in mountainous areas. Therefore, research on risk evaluations, which play important roles in the prevention and mitigation of highway disasters are very important. An evaluation model was established based on the superposition theory of regional influencing factors to highway flood disasters. Based on the formation mechanism and influencing factors of highway flood disasters, the main influencing factors were selected. These factors include rainstorms, terrain slopes, soil types, vegetation coverage and regional river density, which are based on evaluation indexes from climate conditions and underlying surface of the basin. A regional risk evaluation of highway flood disasters in Shaanxi was established using GIS. The risk index was divided into five levels using statistical methods, in accordance with the regional characteristics of highway flood disasters. Considering the difference in upfront investments, road grade, etc, between expressways and trunk-highways in China, a regional risk evaluation of trunk-highway flood disasters was completed. The evaluation results indicate that the risk evaluation is consistent with the actual situation.
Korean Ministry of Environment's web-based visual consumer product exposure and risk assessment system (COPER).

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hunjoo; Lee, Kiyoung; Park, Ji Young; Min, Sung-Gi

2017-05-01

With support from the Korean Ministry of the Environment (ME), our interdisciplinary research staff developed the COnsumer Product Exposure and Risk assessment system (COPER). This system includes various databases and features that enable the calculation of exposure and determination of risk caused by consumer products use. COPER is divided into three tiers: the integrated database layer (IDL), the domain specific service layer (DSSL), and the exposure and risk assessment layer (ERAL). IDL is organized by the form of the raw data (mostly non-aggregated data) and includes four sub-databases: a toxicity profile, an inventory of Korean consumer products, the weight fractions of chemical substances in the consumer products determined by chemical analysis and national representative exposure factors. DSSL provides web-based information services corresponding to each database within IDL. Finally, ERAL enables risk assessors to perform various exposure and risk assessments, including exposure scenario design via either inhalation or dermal contact by using or organizing each database in an intuitive manner. This paper outlines the overall architecture of the system and highlights some of the unique features of COPER based on visual and dynamic rendering engine for exposure assessment model on web.
In vitro methods for evaluating skin hydration under diapers and incontinence products.

Science.gov (United States)

Tate, M L; Wright, A S

2017-11-01

Excessive skin hydration from wearing wet undergarments, such as infant diapers and adult incontinence products, has been historically problematic. Skin damage occurs from wetness (urine) and limited product breathability. Evaporative water loss has been measured on adult arms (armband method) or infant torsos (on-baby method), after wearing a saline-insulted diaper product. The current study developed a reliable in vitro method of evaluating diaper and incontinence products for improvements in skin dryness. A simulated skin substrate was applied to a heated mechanical arm or baby torso. A disposable diaper or incontinence product was wrapped around the arm or baby torso, and loaded with saline. Hydration of the simulated skin was measured by evaporimetry and compared with clinical data from adult armband evaluations. The heated mechanical arm and baby torso accurately distinguished products for skin dryness. Eight diaper products were evaluated and compared to human test results. The torso in vitro and mechanical arm evaluations demonstrated strong correlations to human epidermal water loss evaluations, with repeatable results. Additionally, the bench test has been used for adult incontinence products, and it proved to differentiate those products as well as infant products. A rapid and reliable means of evaluation has been developed, and it is predictive of human subject testing. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Monitoring product safety in the postmarketing environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharrar, Robert G; Dieck, Gretchen S

2013-10-01

The safety profile of a medicinal product may change in the postmarketing environment. Safety issues not identified in clinical development may be seen and need to be evaluated. Methods of evaluating spontaneous adverse experience reports and identifying new safety risks include a review of individual reports, a review of a frequency distribution of a list of the adverse experiences, the development and analysis of a case series, and various ways of examining the database for signals of disproportionality, which may suggest a possible association. Regulatory agencies monitor product safety through a variety of mechanisms including signal detection of the adverse experience safety reports in databases and by requiring and monitoring risk management plans, periodic safety update reports and postauthorization safety studies. The United States Food and Drug Administration is working with public, academic and private entities to develop methods for using large electronic databases to actively monitor product safety. Important identified risks will have to be evaluated through observational studies and registries.
A PRODUCTIVITY EVALUATION MODEL BASED ON INPUT AND OUTPUT ORIENTATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C.O. Anyaeche

2012-01-01

Full Text Available
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Many productivity models evaluate either the input or the output performances using standalone techniques. This sometimes gives divergent views of the same system’s results. The work reported in this article, which simultaneously evaluated productivity from both orientations, was applied on real life data. The results showed losses in productivity (–2% and price recovery (–8% for the outputs; the inputs showed productivity gain (145% but price recovery loss (–63%. These imply losses in product performances but a productivity gain in inputs. The loss in the price recovery of inputs indicates a problem in the pricing policy. This model is applicable in product diversification.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die meeste produktiwiteitsmodelle evalueer of die inset- of die uitsetverrigting deur gebruik te maak van geïsoleerde tegnieke. Dit lei soms tot uiteenlopende perspektiewe van dieselfde sisteem se verrigting. Hierdie artikel evalueer verrigting uit beide perspektiewe en gebruik ware data. Die resultate toon ‘n afname in produktiwiteit (-2% en prysherwinning (-8% vir die uitsette. Die insette toon ‘n toename in produktiwiteit (145%, maar ‘n afname in prysherwinning (-63%. Dit impliseer ‘n afname in produkverrigting, maar ‘n produktiwiteitstoename in insette. Die afname in die prysherwinning van insette dui op ‘n problem in die prysvasstellingbeleid. Hierdie model is geskik vir produkdiversifikasie.
Evaluation of Cyber Security and Modelling of Risk Propagation with Petri Nets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcin Szpyrka

2017-02-01

Full Text Available This article presents a new method of risk propagation among associated elements. On thebasis of coloured Petri nets, a new class called propagation nets is defined. This class providesa formal model of a risk propagation. The proposed method allows for model relations betweennodes forming the network structure. Additionally, it takes into account the bidirectional relationsbetween components as well as relations between isomorphic, symmetrical components in variousbranches of the network. This method is agnostic in terms of use in various systems and it canbe adapted to the propagation model of any systems’ characteristics; however, it is intentionallyproposed to assess the risk of critical infrastructures. In this paper, as a proof of concept example, weshow the formal model of risk propagation proposed within the project Cyberspace Security ThreatsEvaluation System of the Republic of Poland. In the article, the idea of the method is presented aswell as its use case for evaluation of risk for cyber threats. With the adaptation of Petri nets, it ispossible to evaluate the risk for the particular node and assess the impact of this risk for all relatednodes including hierarchic relations of components as well as isomorphism of elements.
Systematic Review of Health Economic Impact Evaluations of Risk Prediction Models : Stop Developing, Start Evaluating

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Giessen, Anoukh; Peters, Jaime; Wilcher, Britni; Hyde, Chris; Moons, Carl; de Wit, Ardine; Koffijberg, Erik

2017-01-01

Background: Although health economic evaluations (HEEs) are increasingly common for therapeutic interventions, they appear to be rare for the use of risk prediction models (PMs). Objectives: To evaluate the current state of HEEs of PMs by performing a comprehensive systematic review. Methods: Four
Risk evaluation and control strategies for indoor radon: a brief discussion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nero, A.V. Jr.

1994-01-01

Average risks of death estimated for radon are larger than those for many exposures in the outdoor environment, but similar to some in industrial settings. However, the indoor environment differs in regard to cost, benefit, responsibility, and distribution of risks from the outdoor and occupational settings, where frameworks for setting risk-limiting objectives and strategies have already been developed substantially. This indicates the need to develop a conceptual framework for evaluating risks in the indoor environment, within which the objectives of radon control strategies can be sensibly chosen. Nevertheless, the range of estimated radon risks and of recent radon control strategies suggest near-term elements of any strategy, i.e. accurate and effective public information, as well as reliable monitoring and control capabilities, and a focus on areas where most high residential levels occur. Developing a conceptual framework for evaluating indoor risks will permit the formulation of suitable aims on average indoor exposures and lower exposure situations. (author)
Sensory evaluation of pralines containing different honey products.

Science.gov (United States)

Popov-Raljić, Jovanka V; Laličić-Petronijević, Jovanka G; Georgijev, Aneta S; Popov, Vladimir S; Mladenović, Mića A

2010-01-01

In this study, pralines manufactured by hand were evaluated sensorially. These pralines were obtained from dark chocolate containing 60% cocoa components, filled with Apis mellifera carnica Poll drone larvae, blossom honey and a blossom honey/pollen mixture from the protected region of Stara Planina-Eastern Serbia (a specific botanical region). The objectives of this study were investigations related to the use of sensory analysis for quality assessment of new functional products with potential benefits for human health, in particular of desserts based on dark chocolate pralines filled with different bee products characterized by a specific botanical and geographic origin, as well as of their storage properties and expected shelf life. Sensory quality (appearance, texture, odor and taste were evaluated by a group of experienced panelists immediately after the production (day 0), and then after 30, 90 and 180 days of storage under ambient conditions (temperature 18-20 °C). The results were statistically analyzed by the two-factorial analysis of variance (MANOVA) and with the LSD-test. It is possible to conclude that the storage time and composition of dark chocolate pralines containing different honey-bee products have statistically highly significant (p < 0.01) influence on the sensorially evaluated properties of pralines.
Sensory Evaluation of Pralines Containing Different Honey Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mića A. Mladenović

2010-08-01

Full Text Available In this study, pralines manufactured by hand were evaluated sensorially. These pralines were obtained from dark chocolate containing 60% cocoa components, filled with Apis mellifera carnica Poll drone larvae, blossom honey and a blossom honey/pollen mixture from the protected region of Stara Planina-Eastern Serbia (a specific botanical region. The objectives of this study were investigations related to the use of sensory analysis for quality assessment of new functional products with potential benefits for human health, in particular of desserts based on dark chocolate pralines filled with different bee products characterized by a specific botanical and geographic origin, as well as of their storage properties and expected shelf life. Sensory quality (appearance, texture, odor and taste were evaluated by a group of experienced panelists immediately after the production (day 0, and then after 30, 90 and 180 days of storage under ambient conditions (temperature 18–20 ºC. The results were statistically analyzed by the two-factorial analysis of variance (MANOVA and with the LSD-test. It is possible to conclude that the storage time and composition of dark chocolate pralines containing different honey-bee products have statistically highly significant (p < 0.01 influence on the sensorially evaluated properties of pralines.
Making Online Products More Tangible: The Effect of Product Presentation Formats on Product Evaluations.

Science.gov (United States)

Verhagen, Tibert; Vonkeman, Charlotte; van Dolen, Willemijn

2016-07-01

Although several studies have looked at the effects of online product presentations on consumer decision making, no study thus far has considered a potential key factor in online product evaluations: tangibility. The present study aims at filling this gap by developing and testing a model that relates different online product presentation formats to the three-dimensional concept of product tangibility. We test how the three tangibility dimensions influence perceived diagnosticity and, eventually, online purchase intentions. A between-subjects lab experiment (n = 366) was used to test the hypothesized effects of three common online product presentation formats (pictures vs. 360 spin rotation vs. virtual mirror). The results showed that out of these formats, virtual mirrors were superior in providing a sense of product tangibility, followed by the 360-spin rotation format and static pictures. Furthermore, in terms of predictive validity, two of the three tangibility dimensions significantly increased perceived diagnosticity, which, in turn, positively and strongly affected purchase intentions. Overall, our results add to previous works studying the relationships between online product presentation formats and consumer decision making. Also, they hold value for online practitioners by highlighting the potential benefits of applying technologically advanced product presentation formats such as the virtual mirror.
The association between modifiable well-being risks and productivity: a longitudinal study in pooled employer sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Yuyan; Sears, Lindsay E; Coberley, Carter R; Pope, James E

2013-04-01

To examine the longitudinal relationship between modifiable well-being risks and productivity. A total of 19,121 employees from five employers participated in baseline and follow-up well-being assessment surveys. Multivariate regressions assessed whether changes in absenteeism, presenteeism, and job performance were associated with changes in 19 modifiable well-being risks. Over time, a 5% reduction in total count of well-being risks was significantly associated with 0.74% decrease in absenteeism, 2.38% decrease in presenteeism, and 0.24% increase in performance. High blood pressure, recurring pain, unhealthy diet, inadequate exercise, poor emotional health, poor supervisor relationship, not utilizing strengths doing job, and organization unsupportive of well-being had greater independent contributions in explaining productivity impairment. The often-ignored well-being risks such as work-related and financial health risks provided incremental explanation of longitudinal productivity variations beyond traditional measures of health-related risks.
Association Between Employee Dental Claims, Health Risks, Workplace Productivity, and Preventive Services Compliance.

Science.gov (United States)

Burton, Wayne N; Chen, Chin-Yu; Li, Xingquan; Schultz, Alyssa B

2017-08-01

This study examined differences in health risks and workplace outcomes among employees who utilized preventive dental services compared with other employees. A retrospective observational study of employees of a large financial services corporation, with data from health risk appraisal questionnaires, medical claims, pharmacy claims, and dental claims. Employees with no dental claims were significantly more likely to have a variety of health risk factors (such as obesity and tobacco use), health conditions (such as diabetes), absenteeism, and lost on-the-job productivity, and were significantly less likely to be compliant with clinical preventive services compared with those with preventive dental claims. Employees with preventive dental claims had fewer health risks and medical conditions and better health and productivity measures. Study employees underutilized free dental care; employers should incorporate preventive dental care awareness into their worksite wellness programs.
Country-of-origin effects on consumer product evaluations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verlegh, P.W.J.

2001-01-01

This thesis intends to provide a better understanding of the influence of country of origin on consumers' product evaluations. The first chapter explains why consumers attach importance to the country of origin of products. Next to "made in …" labels, there are various ways in which
Risk assessment for stonecutting enterprises Accidental risks in the course of petroleum production and stone extraction

Science.gov (United States)

Aleksandrova, A. J.; Timofeeva, S. S.

2018-01-01

The paper is devoted to the assessment of accidental risks occurring at the works engaged in stone extracting and petroleum production. Two basic kinds of accidents common for stone extracting and petroleum production have been chosen to be discussed in the part under consideration. The most dangerous accidental situation characteristic for a stone milling line is an unsanctioned explosion, UE, of blasting agents used for the development of stone deposits. The analysis of a risk occurrence in certain accidental situations is to be carried out. With reference to petroleum extraction, a combustibles and lubricants (C & L) explosion is the most dangerous of characteristic accidental situations. To reveal the most probable causes of accidental situations to be realized, a graph of cause and effect relations has been constructed for each of the accidental situations most probable causes to real situation of an accident. Disasters of a natural origin are the most probable causes of unsanctioned explosions at the deposits of stone raw materials. Technology related natural disasters are the most probable causes of unsanctioned explosions to be realized at multiple well platforms engaged in petroleum production.
Evaluation of Total Cardiovascular Risk in Patients with Hypertension and Impaired Glucose Tolerance

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I.V. Cherniavska

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Aim. Timely reveal of the patients at high risk of cardiovascular diseases for whom earlier intervention for cardiovascular risk correction is the most effective. Materials and methods. Seventy patients aged 30–55 years old with stage 2 hypertension, impaired glucose tolerance (IGT and high cardiovascular risk were examined according to Framingham criteria. Cardiovascular risk was compared by SCORE and PROCAM results. Results. Percentage ratio of males with high cardiovascular risk was higher by 52.3 % in comparison to females by SCORE and by 2.3 % in comparison to females by PROCAM. Males did not present any significant discrepancy by evaluation of cardiovascular risk by both scores unlike females. Obtained results showed that total cardiovascular risk in females was twofold higher by PROCAM compared to SCORE scale. Conclusions. Total cardiovascular risk level in patients with stage 2 hypertension and IGT is influenced by age, systolic blood pressure level, smoking, lipid storage disease and carbohydrate metabolism disorder. When we evaluate total cardiovascular risk, we should not be limited only by determination of factors determined in SCORE. It is reasonable to evaluate risk factors by PROCAM, too, especially for females.
Radiological health risk evaluation of radium contaminated land: A real life implementation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paridaens, J.

2005-01-01

A plot of land, currently used for dairy farming, has been contaminated over the years with radium due to the operation of one of the world's largest radium production plants. Within the framework of a global remediation approach for the plant surroundings, the land owner needed advice for a future destination of the land. Therefore, the radium contamination was accurately mapped, and on the basis of its severity a practically feasible subdivision of the land into four plots was proposed. For all four plots, the radiological risk was evaluated for the current type of land use and for possible alternative types. Hence a clear and usable advice could be formulated to the authorities reconciling public health, economic and practical issues. (authors)
Evaluation of Postural Stability and Fall Risk in Patients with Ankylosing Spondylitis

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Ahmet Inanir

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influences of Ankylosing spondylitis on postural balance and the risk of falls. Methods: A total of 73 sobjects were recruited for the study, including 36 with AS (17 men, 19 women and 37 healthy controls (19 men, 18 women. Patients were evaluated in terms of balance and risk of falls. Balance and risk of falls was assessed with the Biodex Stability System. Results: The mean age, gender and body mass index of the participants did not differ significantly between (p=0.308, p=0.724, p=0.766, respectively. When groups were evaluated in terms of postural stability indexes Overall Stability Index (OSI, Antero-Posteior Stability Index (APSI and Medio-Lateral Stability Index (MLSI had no statistically significant difference (p=0.190, p=0.437 ve p=0.144, respectively. Fall Risk Index (FRI evaluations showed that as patients test scores were higher than control group (p=0.001. (Table 1. Conclusions: In this study, we present numerical data that suggests that AS are associated with risk of falling. [Cukurova Med J 2013; 38(1.000: 86-91
Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

2018-01-12

Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent's returns on the provider's gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating "accountability" to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast
Financial disclosure and toxic products: encouraging wall street to anticipate product risk and exercise precaution.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Sanford; Byrne, Margaret

2009-01-01

Amidst discussion by policymakers about how regulators' failure to ensure disclosure of risks contributed to the current financial crisis, we assess how emerging product toxicity risks are addressed in companies' financial reports. Will corporations blindside investors with "the next asbestos?" Existing disclosures are found lacking in the specificity needed to forewarn of liabilities and reputational damage from the use of potentially harmful materials-from nanotechnologies, to asthmagens, to perfluorinated compounds. Improved standards could protect investors while also enhancing corporate incentives to use safer materials. Reforms by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Accounting Standards Board are recommended.
Credit Risk Evaluation of Large Power Consumers Considering Power Market Transaction

Science.gov (United States)

Fulin, Li; Erfeng, Xu; ke, Sun; Dunnan, Liu; Shuyi, Shen

2018-03-01

Large power users will participate in power market in various forms after power system reform. Meanwhile, great importance has always attached to the construction of the credit system in power industry. Due to the difference between the awareness of performance and the ability to perform, credit risk of power customer will emerge accordingly. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate credit risk of large power customers in the new situation of power market. Firstly, this paper constructs index system of credit risk of large power customers, and establishes evaluation model of interval number and AHP-entropy weight method.
Health risk assessment of heavy metals in vegetables grown around battery production area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Chen

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Battery production is one of the main sources of heavy metals that present great harm to human health even in low concentrations. Chromium (Cr, Cadmium (Cd and Lead (Pb were measured in edible portions of vegetables and soils around a battery production area in China, and the potential health risk of heavy metal contamination to the local population via vegetable consumption was evaluated. Their concentrations in edible portions of vegetables were 2.354 (0.078-14.878, 0.035 (0.003-0.230 and 0.039 (0.003-0.178 mg kg-1, respectively. Approximately 3 % of the Cd in the vegetable samples exceeded the maximum concentration allowable by national food safety criteria, although Pb content in all samples were within the criteria. Transfer factors (TF from soils to vegetables were dependent on vegetable species. Leguminous vegetables were more likely to accumulate Cr, while leaf vegetables tended to show higher levels of concentration of Cd and Pb. Melon vegetables demonstrated a relatively low capacity for accumulating the heavy metals studied. TF were positively correlated with soil organic matter and negatively correlated with soil pH. The mean estimated daily intake of Cr, Cd and Pb via dietary consumption of vegetables was 0.011, 1.65 × 10-4 and 1.84 × 10-4 mg kg-1 of body weight per day, respectively, levels that were much lower than the reference doses recommended by USEPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and JECFA (Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives, indicating that the potential health risk of Cr, Cd and Pb exposure via vegetable consumption to the local population around this battery production area could be negligible.
Approved Drug Products with Therapuetic Equivalence Evaluations (Orange Book)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The publication Approved Drug Products with Therapeutic Equivalence Evaluations (the List, commonly known as the Orange Book) identifies drug products approved on...

A risk based approach to firm evaluation applied to Dutch industries

NARCIS (Netherlands)

E.M. Vermeulen (Erik); J. Spronk (Jaap); D. van der Wijst (Nico)

1992-01-01

textabstractIn this paper, a method is developed to evaluate firms on the basis of the risks they face. In accordance with the multi-factor method, risk is represented as a vector of sensitivities for unexpected changes of risk factors. Subsequently, the sensitivities themselves are related to firm
Role of Nano-Mineral as A Feed Additive to Enhance Animal Productivity and Quality of Animal Products

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Frans Kurnia

2012-12-01

Full Text Available A development of nanotechnology today has penetrated almost all areas of life. Utilization in improving livestock production can be done by replacing commonly used conventional mineral by nanoparticles-mineral. Application of chromium (Cr, selenium (Se, silver (Ag and copper (Cu nanoparticles are reported to improve livestock production. However, the potential risk of the application such as mineral deposit in the body of animal itself and to people as consumers of livestock product has to be evaluated. Nanoparticle-minerals that have smaller size are easier to penetrate the cells and it is suspected that it may give more negative risk. Analysis evaluation of nanoparticle-minerals in the animal including people are still being developed.
The Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Supervision Risk in Electricity Transaction Based on Unascertained Rational Number

Science.gov (United States)

Haining, Wang; Lei, Wang; Qian, Zhang; Zongqiang, Zheng; Hongyu, Zhou; Chuncheng, Gao

2018-03-01

For the uncertain problems in the comprehensive evaluation of supervision risk in electricity transaction, this paper uses the unidentified rational numbers to evaluation the supervision risk, to obtain the possible result and corresponding credibility of evaluation and realize the quantification of risk indexes. The model can draw the risk degree of various indexes, which makes it easier for the electricity transaction supervisors to identify the transaction risk and determine the risk level, assisting the decision-making and realizing the effective supervision of the risk. The results of the case analysis verify the effectiveness of the model.
Mammary radiotherapy and patients-risks management with continue evaluation of clinical indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Untereiner, M.; Frederick, B.; Burie, D.; Cavuto, C.; Rob, L.; Coiffier, N.; Colet, M.

2009-01-01

Purpose: The breast irradiation represents 25% of radiotherapy indication in the radiotherapy centers. The modeling of the management of complications risks and recurrences in relation with mammary irradiation constitutes a methodological base allowing to develop a general concept for any other indication of radiotherapy. The objective of the study was a continuous evaluation of clinical risks to get indicators of the therapy results: for the institution, to get an auto-evaluation tool of the functioning (continuous evaluation of clinical results, identification of sentinel events); for the patients to get precise and detailed information on the risks linked to their treatment (communication of clinical results, comparison with the literature, benchmarking). (N.C.)
Sustainability evaluation of nanotechnology processing and production

OpenAIRE

Teresa M. Mata; Nídia de Sá Caetano; António A. Martins

2015-01-01

This article discusses the current situation and challenges posed by nanotechnology from a sustainability point of view. It presents an objective methodology to evaluate the sustainability of nanotechnology products, based on a life cycle thinking approach, a framework particularly suited to assess all current and future relevant economic, societal and environmental impacts products and processes. It is grounded on a hierarchical definition of indicators, starting from 3D indicators that take...
A Method for Evaluating Competency in Assessment and Management of Suicide Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Hung, Erick K.; Binder, Renee L.; Fordwood, Samantha R.; Hall, Stephen E.; Cramer, Robert J.; McNiel, Dale E.

2012-01-01

Objective: Although health professionals increasingly are expected to be able to assess and manage patients' risk for suicide, few methods are available to evaluate this competency. This report describes development of a competency-assessment instrument for suicide risk-assessment (CAI-S), and evaluates its use in an objective structured clinical…
AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES PRODUCTION EVALUATION AND DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE

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Serhiy Us

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to analyze correlation between production volume (V, labour factor (L and capital factor (K with further production volume forecasting of researched agricultural enterprises in Ukraine as well as their competitiveness in the European market. Methodology. The survey based on statistical data of State statistics service in Ukraine, Poland and accounting data of investigated enterprises during 2004-2013 years. Production volume and capital amount taken in monetary terms, labour factor is calculated in monetary terms using the average wage and the number of employees. Treatment of major production factors according to classical economic theory is generalized. Correlation of V, L and K factors are calculated using method of the least squares in production function evaluation. Production volume of enterprises A and B are forecasted with further evaluation of its reliability in the econometric program EViews 7. Results of the survey showed the dominant role of L factor over the K factor especially after world economic crisis 2008 in investigated agricultural enterprises of Ukraine. According to high determination coefficient, the influence of both factors on production volume is 85% for enterprise A and 95% for enterprise B. Production forecast shows the increase of its volume till 2020 in both enterprises with high probability according to forecast credibility indicator MAPE. Practical implications. Application of the results, in particular the ratio of production factors and forecast of production volume, will allow more effective use of production resources and better planning of production process taking into account market conditions. Value/originality. Production activity estimation and output forecast of investigated agricultural enterprises were used for competitiveness analysis of agricultural enterprises in Ukraine and Poland, which is important for European integration process of domestic economy.
Measures to Evaluate the Effects of DBS on Speech Production

Science.gov (United States)

Weismer, Gary; Yunusova, Yana; Bunton, Kate

2011-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to review and evaluate measures of speech production that could be used to document effects of Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS) on speech performance, especially in persons with Parkinson disease (PD). A small set of evaluative criteria for these measures is presented first, followed by consideration of several speech physiology and speech acoustic measures that have been studied frequently and reported on in the literature on normal speech production, and speech production affected by neuromotor disorders (dysarthria). Each measure is reviewed and evaluated against the evaluative criteria. Embedded within this review and evaluation is a presentation of new data relating speech motions to speech intelligibility measures in speakers with PD, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), and control speakers (CS). These data are used to support the conclusion that at the present time the slope of second formant transitions (F2 slope), an acoustic measure, is well suited to make inferences to speech motion and to predict speech intelligibility. The use of other measures should not be ruled out, however, and we encourage further development of evaluative criteria for speech measures designed to probe the effects of DBS or any treatment with potential effects on speech production and communication skills. PMID:24932066
Risk Management for New Product Development Projects in Food Industry

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Porananond, D.

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Project risk management provides a guideline for decision making in new product development (NPD projects, reducing uncertainty and increasing success rate. However, the acceptance of formal risk management applications in industry, especially for NPD projects is still in question. A study of a food conglomerate in Thailand found that only 9% of NPD projects used a systematic approach for managing risk. 61% of the projects realised the importance of risk management, while the remaining 30% did not involve risk management at all. This study aims to develop a risk management model for NPD projects in the food industry. The first section of this paper reviews the literature on risk management theory, including international standards for risk and project management (ISO31000 and ISO21500, publications for the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK, by a professional organisation the Project Management Institute (PMI, and also academic research. 182 academic papers, published between January 2002 and August 2012 were selected. The second part interviews conducted with eight NPD experts from five of the major food manufacturers in Thailand to examine their risk management practices and problems. Conclusions are made on five topics : classification of research method, project type and industrial segment, distribution of articles by region, tools & techniques for risk management and risk factors in projects. Specific requirements of risk management for NPD projects in the food industry are identified. A risk management model and the concept of risk management applications for the food industry are proposed.
Risk analysis of Listeria spp. contamination in two types of ready-to-eat chicken meat products.

Science.gov (United States)

Keeratipibul, Suwimon; Lekroengsin, Sumalin

2009-01-01

This study was conducted to determine the risk of Listeria contamination in frozen ready-to-eat roasted and steamed chicken meat in a chicken plant in Thailand. Environmental surfaces were divided into three zones. Zone 1 included surfaces in direct contact with products. Zones 2 and 3 included indirect contact surfaces; zone 2 was next to zone 1, and zone 3 was located next to zone 2 and relatively far from the product. A mathematical model for the probability of product contamination after contact with contaminated zone 1 surfaces was established. This model was augmented by an already established model for the probability of Listeria contamination on zone 1 surfaces. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the prevalence of Listeria on zone 1 surfaces before cleaning and sanitizing, production time, and concentration and contact time of sanitizer were correlated with contamination of both products. Alternative risk management measures for reducing the risk of Listeria contamination were developed using sanitizer concentrations of 0.25 to 1.25% (vol/vol), sanitizer contact times of 5 to 20 min, and production times of 5 to 20 h. The plant's risk manager chose a 0.25% (vol/vol) sanitizer concentration, a contact time of 20 min, and a production time of 20 h. After implementation of the selected risk management option, the prevalence of Listeria on roasted and steamed products was reduced by 2.19 and 2.01%, respectively. The prevalence of Listeria in zones 1, 2, and 3 was also reduced by 3.13, 11.24, and 25.66%, respectively.
Integrated methodology for production related risk management of vehicle electronics (IMPROVE)

OpenAIRE

Geis, Stefan Rafael

2006-01-01

This scientific work is designated to provide an innovative and integrated conceptional approach to improve the assembly quality of automotive electronics. This is achieved by the reduction and elimination of production related risks of automotive electronics and the implementation of a sustainable solution process. The focus is the development and implementation of an integrated technical risk management approach for automotive electronics throughout the vehicle life cycle and the vehicle pr...
Concordance of mother-daughter diurnal cortisol production: Understanding the intergenerational transmission of risk for depression.

Science.gov (United States)

LeMoult, Joelle; Chen, Michael C; Foland-Ross, Lara C; Burley, Hannah W; Gotlib, Ian H

2015-05-01

A growing body of research is demonstrating concordance between mother and child diurnal cortisol production. In the context of maternal history of depression, intergenerational concordance of cortisol production could contribute to hypercortisolemia in children of depressed mothers, which has been shown to increase risk for MDD. The current study is the first to examine concordance in diurnal cortisol production between mothers with a history of depression and their never-depressed, but high-risk, children. We collected salivary cortisol across 2 days from mothers with (remitted; RMD) and without (CTL) a history of recurrent episodes of depression and their never-depressed daughters. As expected, RMD mothers and their daughters both exhibited higher cortisol production than did their CTL counterparts. Moreover, both across and within groups, mothers' and daughters' cortisol production were directly coupled. These findings suggest that there is an intergenerational concordance in cortisol dysregulation that may contribute to hypercortisolemia in girls at familial risk for depression. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Managing Food Quality Risk in Global Supply Chain: A Risk Management Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pablo Jose Arevalo Chavez

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Today, the food sector is one of the sectors most vulnerable to intentional contamination by debilitating agents [1]. Some cases of contaminated food have indicated that product quality risk is one of the vulnerabilities in the global supply chain. A series of company scandals, affecting reputation and causing the recall of products and increasing costs have hit the food industry. The obvious problem is that even a minor incident in one part of the chain can have disastrous effects on other parts of the supply chain. Thus, risks are transmitted through the chain. Even though the dangers from members in the supply chain are small, the cumulative effect becomes significant. The aim of this study is to propose an integrated supply chain risk management framework for practitioners that can provide directions for how to evaluate food quality risk in the global supply chain. For validating the proposed model in‐depth, a case study is conducted on a food SME distributor in Central America. The case study investigates how product quality risks are handled according to the proposed framework.
EVALUATION OF METEOROLOGICAL ALERT CHAIN IN CASTILLA Y LEÓN (SPAIN): How can the meteorological risk managers help researchers?

Science.gov (United States)

López, Laura; Guerrero-Higueras, Ángel Manuel; Sánchez, José Luis; Matía, Pedro; Ortiz de Galisteo, José Pablo; Rodríguez, Vicente; Lorente, José Manuel; Merino, Andrés; Hermida, Lucía; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Fernández-Manso, Oscar

2013-04-01

Evaluating the meteorological alert chain, or, how information is transmitted from the meteorological forecasters to the final users, passing through risk managers, is a useful tool that benefits all the links of the chain, especially the meteorology researchers and forecasters. In fact, the risk managers can help significantly to improve meteorological forecasts in different ways. Firstly, by pointing out the most appropriate type of meteorological format, and its characteristics when representing the meteorological information, consequently improving the interpretation of the already-existing forecasts. Secondly, by pointing out the specific predictive needs in their workplaces related to the type of significant meteorological parameters, temporal or spatial range necessary, meteorological products "custom-made" for each type of risk manager, etc. In order to carry out an evaluation of the alert chain in Castilla y León, we opted for the creation of a Panel of Experts made up of personnel specialized in risk management (Responsible for Protection Civil, Responsible for Alert Services and Hydrological Planning of Hydrographical Confederations, Responsible for highway maintenance, and management of fires, fundamentally). In creating this panel, a total of twenty online questions were evaluated, and the majority of the questions were multiple choice or open-ended. Some of the results show how the risk managers think that it would be interesting, or very interesting, to carry out environmental educational campaigns about the meteorological risks in Castilla y León. Another result is the elevated importance that the risk managers provide to the observation data in real-time (real-time of wind, lightning, relative humidity, combined indices of risk of avalanches, snowslides, index of fires due to convective activity, etc.) Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Junta de Castilla y León for its financial support through the project LE220A11-2.
Risk assessment and risk evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niehaus, F.

1978-01-01

With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de
Product Diversification in the European Banking Industry: Risk and Loan Pricing Implications

OpenAIRE

Lepetit , Laetitia; Nys , Emmanuelle; Rous , Philippe; Tarazi , Amine

2005-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between bank risk and product diversification in the changing structure of the European banking industry. Based on a broad set of European banks for the period 1996-2002, our study shows that banks expanding into non-interest income activities present higher risk than banks which mainly supply loans. Whereas previous studies (mainly on U.S. banks) focused on portfolio diversification effects we explore risk implications of cross-sel...
Application of Mixed Group Decision Making to Safety Evaluation of Agricultural Products

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

2012-01-01

In view of the gravity of issues concerning safety of agricultural products and urgency of resolving these issues,after analyzing the problems existing in safety of agricultural products,this article offers a method for evaluating safety of agricultural products on the basis of mixed group decision making.First of all,it introduces the factors influencing safety evaluation of agricultural products;subsequently,given that the judgment matrices offered by the group of experts contain both reciprocal and complementary judgment matrices in the process of jointly participating in evaluation arising from personal preference,it proposes to assemble expert information in order to obtain indicator weight using the OWA operator;finally,the process of evaluating safety of agricultural products is given.
NanoRiskCat: a conceptual tool for categorization and communication of exposure potentials and hazards of nanomaterials in consumer products

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

2014-01-01

and exposure potential of consumer products containing engineered nanomaterials. The final outcome of NanoRiskCat is communicated in the form of a short-title describing the intended use and five colored dots. The first three dots refer to the qualitative exposure potential for professional end......-users, consumers and the environment, whereas the last two refers to the hazard potential for humans and the environment. Each dot can be assigned one of four different colors, i.e. red, yellow, green, and gray indicating high, medium, low, and unknown, respectively. In this paper, we first introduce the criteria...... used to evaluate the exposure potential and the human and environmental hazards of specific uses of the nanoproduct. We then apply NanoRiskCat to eight different nanoproducts. The human and environmental exposure potential was found to be high (i.e., red) for many of the products due to direct...
Evaluating the Impact of a New Product on the Sales of other Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julian Andreev Vasilev

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to evaluate the impact of a new product on the sales of other products. Launching a new product may lead to increase or decrease of sales in the products of the same group. Customers may continue buying standard products or they may be oriented to new products. New products may cause internal competition. Statistical methods are applied. Time series analysis is used. Transactional database of a confectionary factory is the main source of data. The time series analysis is carried in two datasets – quantities of sales of three products on a daily basis and on a monthly basis. The main methods used are time series analysis and regression analysis. The three time series (corresponding to the three products are separated into two parts – before and after launching the new product. It is proved that the new product does not affect the sales of the two other products. The new product is well accepted and its sales increase together with the sales of the two other products.
Scientometrics, International Special Indexes, scientific productivity evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdolreza Noroozi Chakoli

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This research aims at identifying and validating of indicators used to evaluate research productivity of Iranian researchers. In order to achieve this aim survey and documentary methods are used. Research society consists of a 80 person sample and members of this sample were selected among top researchers of country during recent years (1389-1390 from 4 subject areas of humanities, medical sciences, technology and engineering and basic sciences. Instrument for collecting data is a questionnaire including 47 items focusing on indicators used to evaluate research productivity of researchers. The Cronbach’s coefficient alpha was applied to confirm it’s variability and coefficient equal to 96% was obtained. In order to confirm its validity, formal validity method was used. Responding to questions and testing research hypotheses was conducted at two levels of descriptive and inferential statistics. At the descriptive statistics level, standard deviation, average and frequency and at the inferential statistic’s level, variance analysis, least significant difference and Friedman tests were used. Results of research show that for researchers of humanities, the indicators related to book have high importance while for researchers of basic and medical sciences, indicators related to article have more importance and from point of view of technology and engineering researchers, indicators related to innovations and research plans in comparison to other indicators are more credit at evaluating research productivity of researchers.

A risk evaluation model using on-site meteorological data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, C.S.

1979-01-01

A model is considered in order to evaluate the potential risk from a nuclear facility directly combining the on site meteorological data. The model is utilized to evaluate the environmental consequences from the routine releases during normal plant operation as well as following postulated accidental releases. The doses to individual and risks to the population-at-large are also analyzed in conjunction with design of rad-waste management and safety systems. It is observed that the conventional analysis, which is done in two separate unaffiliated phases of releases and atmospheric dispersion tends to result in unnecessary over-design of the systems because of high resultant doses calculated by multiplication of two extreme values. (author)
Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Shepherd, Christena C.

2017-01-01

security; loss of confidence in government; failure of publicly funded projects; damage to the environment; ethics violations, and the list goes on; with local, national and even international consequences. The Plan-Do-Check-Act process, also known as the "process approach" can be used at any time to establish and standardize a process, and it can also be used to check periodically for "process creep" (i.e., informal, unauthorized changes that have occurred over time), any necessary updates and improvements. While ISO 9001 compliance is not mandated for all government agencies, if interpreted correctly, it can be useful in establishing a framework and implementing effective management systems and processes.4 Another method that can be used to evaluate effectiveness is the scorecard definitions in Mallory's Process Management Standard5 as a basis for evaluating work on the process level on effective, and continuously improved and improving processes. With processes on the lower end of the scale, agencies are vulnerable to a great many risks, with employees and managers making up many of the rules as they go, leading to the above listed negative results. Without clear guidance for nominal operations, off-nominal situations can, and do, increase the likelihood of chaos. In an increasingly technical environment, with inter-agency communication and collaboration becoming the norm, agencies need to come to grips with the fact that processes can become rapidly outdated, and that the technical community should take on an increased role in the maturation of the agency's processes. Industry has long known that effective processes are also efficient, and process improvement methods such as Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, 5S, and mistake proofing lead to increased productivity, improved quality, and decreased cost. Again, government agencies have different concerns, but inefficiencies and mistakes can have dire and wide reaching consequences for the public that they serve. While no one goes
Women's gambling behaviour, product preferences, and perceptions of product harm: differences by age and gambling risk status.

Science.gov (United States)

McCarthy, Simone; Thomas, Samantha L; Randle, Melanie; Bestman, Amy; Pitt, Hannah; Cowlishaw, Sean; Daube, Mike

2018-04-24

Women's participation in, and harm from gambling, is steadily increasing. There has been very limited research to investigate how gambling behaviour, product preferences, and perceptions of gambling harm may vary across subgroups of women. This study surveyed a convenience sample of 509 women from Victoria and New South Wales, Australia. Women were asked a range of questions about their socio-demographic characteristics and gambling behaviour. Focusing on four gambling products in Australia-casino gambling, electronic gambling machines (EGMs), horse betting, and sports betting-women were asked about their frequency of participation, their product preferences, and perceptions of product harms. The sample was segmented a priori according to age and gambling risk status, and differences between groups were identified using Chi-square tests and ANOVAs. Thematic analysis was used to interpret qualitative data. Almost two thirds (n = 324, 63.7%) of women had engaged with one of the four products in the previous 12 months. Compared to other age groups, younger women aged 16-34 years exhibited a higher proportion of problem gambling, gambled more frequently, and across more products. While EGMs were the product gambled on most frequently by women overall, younger women were significantly more likely to bet on sports and gamble at casinos relative to older women. Qualitative data indicated that younger women engaged with gambling products as part of a "night out", "with friends", due to their "ease of access" and perceived "chance of winning big". There were significant differences in the perceptions of the harms associated with horse and sports betting according to age and gambling risk status, with younger women and gamblers perceiving these products as less harmful. This study highlights that there are clear differences in the gambling behaviour, product preferences, and perceptions of product harms between subgroups of women. A gendered approach will enable public
Evaluation of influential factors on food risk perception

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shirai, Kosuke; Kurisu, Kiyo; Hanaki, Keisuke

2015-01-01

Influential factors on food risk perception were investigated from the viewpoints of socio-demographics, lifestyles and personalities. The anxieties about 24 types of food based on six product areas and four food types were investigated through the questionnaire survey getting 16,650 respondents in Japan. Besides, 60 questions were prepared to investigate the personalities based on 14 sub-scales. The anxiety was influenced mainly by the product areas instead of food types; the highest anxiety was observed for the foods from China, followed by those from developing countries (except for China), developed countries, and Fukushima. For personality, nine factors were extracted. The results of multiple regression analysis incorporating socio-demographic, lifestyle, and personality variables were not influenced by the food types but influenced by the product areas. The most influential variable on the anxiety for all product areas was 'habits to check product areas.' It was also indicated that 'general trust' and 'being strict in discipline' were most influential personalities on the anxiety about foods from Fukushima and foods from China, respectively. (author)
An improved method for risk evaluation in failure modes and effects analysis of CNC lathe

Science.gov (United States)

Rachieru, N.; Belu, N.; Anghel, D. C.

2015-11-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is one of the most popular reliability analysis tools for identifying, assessing and eliminating potential failure modes in a wide range of industries. In general, failure modes in FMEA are evaluated and ranked through the risk priority number (RPN), which is obtained by the multiplication of crisp values of the risk factors, such as the occurrence (O), severity (S), and detection (D) of each failure mode. However, the crisp RPN method has been criticized to have several deficiencies. In this paper, linguistic variables, expressed in Gaussian, trapezoidal or triangular fuzzy numbers, are used to assess the ratings and weights for the risk factors S, O and D. A new risk assessment system based on the fuzzy set theory and fuzzy rule base theory is to be applied to assess and rank risks associated to failure modes that could appear in the functioning of Turn 55 Lathe CNC. Two case studies have been shown to demonstrate the methodology thus developed. It is illustrated a parallel between the results obtained by the traditional method and fuzzy logic for determining the RPNs. The results show that the proposed approach can reduce duplicated RPN numbers and get a more accurate, reasonable risk assessment. As a result, the stability of product and process can be assured.
Evaluation of selected ex-reactor accidents related to the tritium and medical isotope production mission at the FFTF

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Himes, D.A.

1997-11-17

The Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) has been proposed as a production facility for tritium and medical isotopes. A range of postulated accidents related to ex-reactor irradiated fuel and target handling were identified and evaluated using new source terms for the higher fuel enrichment and for the tritium and medical isotope targets. In addition, two in-containment sodium spill accidents were re-evaluated to estimate effects of increased fuel enrichment and the presence of the Rapid Retrieval System. Radiological and toxicological consequences of the analyzed accidents were found to be well within applicable risk guidelines.
Use of genomic data in risk assessment case study: II. Evaluation of the dibutyl phthalate toxicogenomic data set

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Euling, Susan Y., E-mail: euling.susan@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); White, Lori D. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Kim, Andrea S. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Sen, Banalata [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Wilson, Vickie S. [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Keshava, Channa; Keshava, Nagalakshmi [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Hester, Susan [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Ovacik, Meric A.; Ierapetritou, Marianthi G.; Androulakis, Ioannis P. [National Center for Environmental Research Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Bioinformatics Center, Environmental Bioinformatics and Computational Toxicology Center (ebCTC), Rutgers University and University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ (United States); Gaido, Kevin W. [Center for Veterinary Medicine, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Rockville, MD 20855 (United States)

2013-09-15

An evaluation of the toxicogenomic data set for dibutyl phthalate (DBP) and male reproductive developmental effects was performed as part of a larger case study to test an approach for incorporating genomic data in risk assessment. The DBP toxicogenomic data set is composed of nine in vivo studies from the published literature that exposed rats to DBP during gestation and evaluated gene expression changes in testes or Wolffian ducts of male fetuses. The exercise focused on qualitative evaluation, based on a lack of available dose–response data, of the DBP toxicogenomic data set to postulate modes and mechanisms of action for the male reproductive developmental outcomes, which occur in the lower dose range. A weight-of-evidence evaluation was performed on the eight DBP toxicogenomic studies of the rat testis at the gene and pathway levels. The results showed relatively strong evidence of DBP-induced downregulation of genes in the steroidogenesis pathway and lipid/sterol/cholesterol transport pathway as well as effects on immediate early gene/growth/differentiation, transcription, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor signaling and apoptosis pathways in the testis. Since two established modes of action (MOAs), reduced fetal testicular testosterone production and Insl3 gene expression, explain some but not all of the testis effects observed in rats after in utero DBP exposure, other MOAs are likely to be operative. A reanalysis of one DBP microarray study identified additional pathways within cell signaling, metabolism, hormone, disease, and cell adhesion biological processes. These putative new pathways may be associated with DBP effects on the testes that are currently unexplained. This case study on DBP identified data gaps and research needs for the use of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment. Furthermore, this study demonstrated an approach for evaluating toxicogenomic data in human health risk assessment that could be applied to future chemicals
A framework and case studies for evaluation of enzyme ontogeny in children's health risk evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ginsberg, Gary; Vulimiri, Suryanarayana V; Lin, Yu-Sheng; Kancherla, Jayaram; Foos, Brenda; Sonawane, Babasaheb

2017-01-01

Knowledge of the ontogeny of Phase I and Phase II metabolizing enzymes may be used to inform children's vulnerability based upon likely differences in internal dose from xenobiotic exposure. This might provide a qualitative assessment of toxicokinetic (TK) variability and uncertainty pertinent to early lifestages and help scope a more quantitative physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) assessment. Although much is known regarding the ontogeny of metabolizing systems, this is not commonly utilized in scoping and problem formulation stage of human health risk evaluation. A framework is proposed for introducing this information into problem formulation which combines data on enzyme ontogeny and chemical-specific TK to explore potential child/adult differences in internal dose and whether such metabolic differences may be important factors in risk evaluation. The framework is illustrated with five case study chemicals, including some which are data rich and provide proof of concept, while others are data poor. Case studies for toluene and chlorpyrifos indicate potentially important child/adult TK differences while scoping for acetaminophen suggests enzyme ontogeny is unlikely to increase early-life risks. Scoping for trichloroethylene and aromatic amines indicates numerous ways that enzyme ontogeny may affect internal dose which necessitates further evaluation. PBTK modeling is a critical and feasible next step to further evaluate child-adult differences in internal dose for a number of these chemicals.
Minimizing Risks of Invasive Alien Plant Species in Tropical Production Forest Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Padmanaba

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Timber production is the most pervasive human impact on tropical forests, but studies of logging impacts have largely focused on timber species and vertebrates. This review focuses on the risk from invasive alien plant species, which has been frequently neglected in production forest management in the tropics. Our literature search resulted in 114 publications with relevant information, including books, book chapters, reports and papers. Examples of both invasions by aliens into tropical production forests and plantation forests as sources of invasions are presented. We discuss species traits and processes affecting spread and invasion, and silvicultural practices that favor invasions. We also highlight potential impacts of invasive plant species and discuss options for managing them in production forests. We suggest that future forestry practices need to reduce the risks of plant invasions by conducting surveillance for invasive species; minimizing canopy opening during harvesting; encouraging rapid canopy closure in plantations; minimizing the width of access roads; and ensuring that vehicles and other equipment are not transporting seeds of invasive species. Potential invasive species should not be planted within dispersal range of production forests. In invasive species management, forewarned is forearmed.
Dairy product consumption and risk of hip fracture: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Bian, Shanshan; Hu, Jingmin; Zhang, Kai; Wang, Yunguo; Yu, Miaohui; Ma, Jie

2018-01-22

Dairy product consumption may affect the risk of hip fracture, but previous studies have reported inconsistent findings. The primary aim of our meta-analysis was to examine and quantify the potential association of dairy product consumption with risk of hip fracture. We searched the databases of PubMed and EMBASE for relevant articles from their inception through April 17, 2017. The final analysis included 10 cohort studies and 8 case-control studies. Random-effects models were used to estimate the pooled risk. Subgroup and dose-response analyses were conducted to explore the relationships between the consumption of milk and the risk of hip fracture. After pooling the data from the included studies, the summary relative risk (RR) for hip fracture for highest versus lowest consumption were 0.91 (95% CI: 0.74-1.12), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.66-0.86), 0.68 (95% CI: 0.61-0. 77), 1.02 (95% CI: 0.93-1.12) for milk, yogurt, cheese, and total dairy products in cohort studies, respectively. Higher milk consumption [Odds ratio (OR), 0.71, 95% CI: 0.55-0. 91] was associated with lower risk of hip fracture for highest versus lowest consumption in case-control studies. After quantifying the specific dose of milk, the summary RR/OR for an increased milk consumption of 200 g/day was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.94-1.07), and 0.89 (95%CI: 0.64-1.24) with significant heterogeneity for cohort and case-control studies, respectively; There was a nonlinear association between milk consumption and hip fracture risk in cohort, and case-control studies. Our findings indicate that consumption of yogurt and cheese was associated with lower risk of hip fracture in cohort studies. However, the consumption of total dairy products and cream was not significantly associated with the risk of hip fracture. There was insufficient evidence to deduce the association between milk consumption and risk of hip fracture. A lower threshold of 200 g/day milk intake may have beneficial effects, whereas the effects of a higher
Evaluation of risk management and financial performance of BMW Group

OpenAIRE

Mysina, Amira

2017-01-01

Effective risk and financial management possess a great challenge for the multinational companies operating globally. Despite the increasing development of diverse hedging strategies against foreign exchange risk, global firms cannot fully foresee and measure the degree of the impact of foreign currency fluctuations. This paper aims to evaluate the exchange risk management and financial performance of the BMW Group from the year 2005 to 2016. Moreover, this paper is devoted to provide explana...
A Multicriteria Risk Analysis to Evaluate Impacts of Forest Management Alternatives on Forest Health in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hervé Jactel

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Due to climate change, forests are likely to face new hazards, which may require adaptation of our existing silvicultural practices. However, it is difficult to imagine a forest management approach that can simultaneously minimize all risks of damage. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA has been developed to help decision makers choose between actions that require reaching a compromise among criteria of different weights. We adapted this method and produced a multicriteria risk analysis (MCRA to compare the risk of damage associated with various forest management systems with a range of management intensity. The objective was to evaluate the effect of four forest management alternatives (FMAs (i.e., close to nature, extensive management with combined objectives, intensive even-aged plantations, and short-rotation forestry for biomass production on biotic and abiotic risks of damage in eight regional case studies combining three forest biomes (Boreal, Continental, Atlantic and five tree species (Eucalyptus globulus, Pinus pinaster, Pinus sylvestris, Picea sitchensis, and Picea abies relevant to wood production in Europe. Specific forest susceptibility to a series of abiotic (wind, fire, and snow and biotic (insect pests, pathogenic fungi, and mammal herbivores hazards were defined by expert panels and subsequently weighted by corresponding likelihood. The PROMETHEE ranking method was applied to rank the FMAs from the most to the least at risk. Overall, risk was lower in short-rotation forests designed to produce wood biomass, because of the reduced stand susceptibility to the most damaging hazards. At the opposite end of the management intensity gradient, close-to-nature systems also had low overall risk, due to lower stand value exposed to damage. Intensive even-aged forestry appeared to be subject to the greatest risk, irrespective of tree species and bioclimatic zone. These results seem to be robust as no significant differences in relative
Viewpoints of Nurses about Productivity and the Effects of Current Evaluation Process on it

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

nahid Dehghan Nayeri

2006-02-01

Findings: Nurses consider productivity both quantitatively (efficiency and qualitatively (effectiveness. But most of them think about productivity from qualitative view. They consider the effective care which they provide to patients. One of the factors facilitating or impeding productivity is evaluation. Effective evaluation can increase productivity, and current barriers impede nursing team productivity from their viewpoint. Conclusion: Effective evaluation can improve productivity. Thus, it is suggested that current evaluation process be revised extensively.
Robust Production Planning in Fashion Apparel Industry under Demand Uncertainty via Conditional Value at Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abderrahim Ait-Alla

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a mathematical model for robust production planning. The model helps fashion apparel suppliers in making decisions concerning allocation of production orders to different production plants characterized by different lead times and production costs, and in proper time scheduling and sequencing of these production orders. The model aims at optimizing these decisions concerning objectives of minimal production costs and minimal tardiness. It considers several factors such as the stochastic nature of customer demand, differences in production and transport costs and transport times between production plants in different regions. Finally, the model is applied to a case study. The results of numerical computations are presented. The implications of the model results on different fashion related product types and delivery strategies, as well as the model’s limitations and potentials for expansion, are discussed. Results indicate that the production planning model using conditional value at risk (CVaR as the risk measure performs robustly and provides flexibility in decision analysis between different scenarios.
Evaluation of pig production practices, constraints and opportunities for improvement in smallholder production systems in Kenya.

Science.gov (United States)

Mbuthia, Jackson Mwenda; Rewe, Thomas Odiwuor; Kahi, Alexander Kigunzu

2015-02-01

This study evaluated pig production practices by smallholder farmers in two distinct production systems geared towards addressing their constraints and prospects for improvement. The production systems evaluated were semi-intensive and extensive and differed in remoteness, market access, resource availability and pig production intensity. Data were collected using structured questionnaires where a total of 102 pig farmers were interviewed. Qualitative and quantitative research methods were employed to define the socioeconomic characteristics of the production systems, understanding the different roles that pigs play, marketing systems and constraints to production. In both systems, regular cash income and insurance against emergencies were ranked as the main reasons for rearing pigs. Marketing of pigs was mainly driven by the type of production operation. Finances, feeds and housing were identified as the major constraints to production. The study provides important parameters and identifies constraints important for consideration in design of sustainable production improvement strategies. Feeding challenges can be improved through understanding the composition and proper utilization of local feed resources. Provision of adequate housing would improve the stocking rates and control mating.
Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Axel C. Mühlbacher

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial dependence of the agent’s returns on the provider’s gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Methods: Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating “accountability” to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Results: Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods
Evaluation of Container Closure System Integrity for Frozen Storage Drug Products.

Science.gov (United States)

Nieto, Alejandra; Roehl, Holger; Brown, Helen; Nikoloff, Jonas; Adler, Michael; Mahler, Hanns-Christian

2016-01-01

Sometimes, drug product for parenteral administration is stored in a frozen state (e.g., -20 °C or -80 °C), particularly during early stages of development of some biotech molecules in order to provide sufficient stability. Shipment of frozen product could potentially be performed in the frozen state, yet possibly at different temperatures, for example, using dry ice (-80 °C). Container closure systems of drug products usually consist of a glass vial, rubber stopper, and an aluminum crimped cap. In the frozen state, the glass transition temperature (Tg) of commonly used rubber stoppers is between -55 and -65 °C. Below their Tg, rubber stoppers are known to lose their elastic properties and become brittle, and thus potentially fail to maintain container closure integrity in the frozen state. Leaks during frozen temperature storage and transportation are likely to be transient, yet, can possibly risk container closure integrity and lead to microbial contamination. After thawing, the rubber stopper is supposed to re-seal the container closure system. Given the transient nature of the possible impact on container closure integrity in the frozen state, typical container closure integrity testing methods (used at room temperature conditions) are unable to evaluate and thus confirm container closure integrity in the frozen state. Here we present the development of a novel method (thermal physical container closure integrity) for direct assessment of container closure integrity by a physical method (physical container closure integrity) at frozen conditions, using a modified He leakage test. In this study, different container closure systems were evaluated with regard to physical container closure integrity in the frozen state to assess the suitability of vial/stopper combinations and were compared to a gas headspace method. In summary, the thermal physical container closure integrity He leakage method was more sensitive in detecting physical container closure
[Evaluation and prognosis of occupational risk in workers of nonferrous metallurgy enterprises].

Science.gov (United States)

Shliapnikov, D M; Kostarev, V G

2014-01-01

The article deals with results of a priori and a posteriori evaluation of occupational risk for workers' health. Categories of a priori occupational risk for workers are estimated as high to very high (intolerable) risk. Findings are that work conditions in nonferrous metallurgy workshop result in upper respiratory tract diseases (medium degree of occupational conditionality). Increased prevalence of such diseases among the workers is connected with length of service. The authors revealed priority factors for occupationally conditioned diseases. A promising approach in occupational medicine is creation of methods to evaluate and forecast occupational risk, that enable to specify goal parameters for prophylactic measures. For example, modelling the risk of occupationally conditioned diseases via changes in exposure to occupational factor and length of service proved that decrease of chemical concentrations in air of workplace to maximally allowable ones lowers risk of respiratory diseases from 14 to 6 cases per year, for length of service of 5 years and population risk.
Risk management in medical product development process using traditional FMEA and fuzzy linguistic approach: a case study

Science.gov (United States)

Kirkire, Milind Shrikant; Rane, Santosh B.; Jadhav, Jagdish Rajaram

2015-12-01

Medical product development (MPD) process is highly multidisciplinary in nature, which increases the complexity and the associated risks. Managing the risks during MPD process is very crucial. The objective of this research is to explore risks during MPD in a dental product manufacturing company and propose a model for risk mitigation during MPD process to minimize failure events. A case study approach is employed. The existing MPD process is mapped with five phases of the customized phase gate process. The activities during each phase of development and risks associated with each activity are identified and categorized based on the source of occurrence. The risks are analyzed using traditional Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) and fuzzy FMEA. The results of two methods when compared show that fuzzy approach avoids the duplication of RPNs and helps more to convert cognition of experts into information to get values of risk factors. The critical, moderate, low level and negligible risks are identified based on criticality; risk treatments and mitigation model are proposed. During initial phases of MPD, the risks are less severe, but as the process progresses the severity of risks goes on increasing. The MPD process should be critically designed and simulated to minimize the number of risk events and their severity. To successfully develop the products/devices within the manufacturing companies, the process risk management is very essential. A systematic approach to manage risks during MPD process will lead to the development of medical products with expected quality and reliability. This is the first research of its kind having focus on MPD process risks and its management. The methodology adopted in this paper will help the developers, managers and researchers to have a competitive edge over the other companies by managing the risks during the development process.
EVALUATION AND ACTIONS OF CLEANER PRODUCTION IN GALVANIC INDUSTRY OF THE VILLA CLARA PROVINCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petra G. Velazco Pedroso

2015-10-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the assessment results accomplished in different processes of the galvanic industry are presented and it is taking into account the application of good practices and measures of Cleaner Production. The main critical points in the processes of metallic coating were identified; and the characterization of the effluents generated by the installation is done. A number of technological changes in the processes are proposed, as well as the introduction of cleaner production measures which contribute to increase the efficiency and safety of processes, reduce risks and improvements to internal operations. It provides advantages of economic, environmental and social nature for the galvanic industry due to the minimizing of the impacts on environment, because the sewage and its pollutant load are reduced. Besides, we can save water, energy and raw materials. The economic evaluation showed the feasibility of applying the Cleaner Production (PML measures proposed with a Net Present Value (NPV of $109 696.26, and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR of 64 % value and payback period lower than two years.

Animal product consumption and subsequent fatal breast cancer risk among Seventh-day Adventists.

Science.gov (United States)

Mills, P K; Annegers, J F; Phillips, R L

1988-03-01

Seventh-day Adventist women experience lower mortality rates from breast cancer than other white females in the United States. To evaluate the role of diet in relation to breast cancer within this unique population (more than one-half of all Adventist women are lacto-ovo-vegetarians), a nested case-control study was conducted including 142 cases of fatal breast cancer and 852 matched controls among California Seventh-day Adventist women in 1960-1980. No significant relations between the consumption of animal products (meat, milk, cheese, and eggs) and breast cancer were evident. Odds ratios of 1.00, 1.22, and 1.03 were observed for meat consumption categories of none or occasional, 1-3 days/week, and 4+ days/week, respectively. However, among those women who experienced a relatively early age at natural menopause (less than or equal to 48 years), a suggestive though nonsignificant, positive association between meat consumption and risk was noted. These relations remained unchanged after simultaneously controlling for the effects of other covariates (menstrual characteristics and obesity) via conditional logistic regression analysis. Risk was not related to age at first exposure to the vegetarian lifestyle nor to duration of exposure to the vegetarian lifestyle.
Disinfection By-Product Exposures and the Risk of Specific Cardiac Birth Defects

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, J. Michael; Evans, Amanda; Kaufman, John A.; Rivera-Núñez, Zorimar; Narotsky, Michael G.

2016-01-01

Background: Epidemiological studies suggest that women exposed to disinfection by-products (DBPs) have an increased risk of delivering babies with cardiovascular defects (CVDs). Objective: We examined nine CVDs in relation to categorical DBP exposures including bromoform, chloroform, dibromochloromethane (DBCM), bromodichloromethane (BDCM), monobromoacetic acid (MBAA), dichloroacetic acid (DCAA), trichloroacetic acid (TCAA), and summary DBP measures (HAA5, THMBr, THM4, and DBP9). Methods: We calculated adjusted odds ratios (aORs) in a case–control study of birth defects in Massachusetts with complete quarterly 1999–2004 trihalomethane (THM) and haloacetic acid (HAA) data. We randomly matched 10 controls each to 904 CVD cases based on week of conception. Weight-averaged aggregate first-trimester DBP exposures were assigned to individuals based on residence at birth. Results: We detected associations for tetralogy of Fallot and the upper exposure categories for TCAA, DCAA, and HAA5 (aOR range, 3.34–6.51) including positive exposure–response relationships for DCAA and HAA5. aORs consistent in magnitude were detected between atrial septal defects and bromoform (aOR = 1.56; 95% CI: 1.01, 2.43), as well as DBCM, chloroform, and THM4 (aOR range, 1.26–1.67). Ventricular septal defects (VSDs) were associated with the highest bromoform (aOR = 1.85; 95% CI: 1.20, 2.83), MBAA (aOR = 1.81; 95% CI: 0.85, 3.84), and DBCM (aOR = 1.54; 95% CI: 1.00, 2.37) exposure categories. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first birth defect study to develop multi-DBP adjusted regression models as well as the first CVD study to evaluate HAA exposures and the second to evaluate bromoform exposures. Our findings, therefore, inform exposure specificity for the consistent associations previously reported between THM4 and CVDs including VSDs. Citation: Wright JM, Evans A, Kaufman JA, Rivera-Núñez Z, Narotsky MG. 2017. Disinfection by-product exposures and the risk of specific
Documentation Protocols to Generate Risk Indicators Regarding Degradation Processes for Cultural Heritage Risk Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Kioussi, A.; Karoglou, M.; Bakolas, A.; Labropoulos, K.; Moropoulou, A.

2013-07-01

Sustainable maintenance and preservation of cultural heritage assets depends highly on its resilience to external or internal alterations and to various hazards. Risk assessment of a heritage asset's can be defined as the identification of all potential hazards affecting it and the evaluation of the asset's vulnerability (building materials and building structure conservation state).Potential hazards for cultural heritage are complex and varying. The risk of decay and damage associated with monuments is not limited to certain long term natural processes, sudden events and human impact (macroscale of the heritage asset) but is also a function of the degradation processes within materials and structural elements due to physical and chemical procedures. Obviously, these factors cover different scales of the problem. The deteriorating processes in materials may be triggered by external influences or caused because of internal chemical and/or physical variations of materials properties and characteristics. Therefore risk evaluation should be dealt in the direction of revealing the specific active decay and damage mechanism both in mesoscale [type of decay and damage] and microscale [decay phenomenon mechanism] level. A prerequisite for risk indicators identification and development is the existence of an organised source of comparable and interoperable data about heritage assets under observation. This unified source of information offers a knowledge based background of the asset's vulnerability through the diagnosis of building materials' and building structure's conservation state, through the identification of all potential hazards affecting these and through mapping of its possible alterations during its entire life-time. In this framework the identification and analysis of risks regarding degradation processes for the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators can be supported by documentation protocols. The data investigated by such protocols help
DOCUMENTATION PROTOCOLS TO GENERATE RISK INDICATORS REGARDING DEGRADATION PROCESSES FOR CULTURAL HERITAGE RISK EVALUATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Kioussi

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Sustainable maintenance and preservation of cultural heritage assets depends highly on its resilience to external or internal alterations and to various hazards. Risk assessment of a heritage asset's can be defined as the identification of all potential hazards affecting it and the evaluation of the asset's vulnerability (building materials and building structure conservation state.Potential hazards for cultural heritage are complex and varying. The risk of decay and damage associated with monuments is not limited to certain long term natural processes, sudden events and human impact (macroscale of the heritage asset but is also a function of the degradation processes within materials and structural elements due to physical and chemical procedures. Obviously, these factors cover different scales of the problem. The deteriorating processes in materials may be triggered by external influences or caused because of internal chemical and/or physical variations of materials properties and characteristics. Therefore risk evaluation should be dealt in the direction of revealing the specific active decay and damage mechanism both in mesoscale [type of decay and damage] and microscale [decay phenomenon mechanism] level. A prerequisite for risk indicators identification and development is the existence of an organised source of comparable and interoperable data about heritage assets under observation. This unified source of information offers a knowledge based background of the asset's vulnerability through the diagnosis of building materials' and building structure's conservation state, through the identification of all potential hazards affecting these and through mapping of its possible alterations during its entire life-time. In this framework the identification and analysis of risks regarding degradation processes for the development of qualitative and quantitative indicators can be supported by documentation protocols. The data investigated by such
Evaluating shielding effectiveness for reducing space radiation cancer risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

2006-01-01

We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDFs are used in significance tests for evaluating the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDFs. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are included in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the upper value of 95% confidence interval (CI) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions ( 180d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits that are based on acceptable levels of risk. For example, the upper 95% CI exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection
Assaying the effect of levodopa on the evaluation of risk in healthy humans.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mkael Symmonds

Full Text Available In humans, dopamine is implicated in reward and risk-based decision-making. However, the specific effects of dopamine augmentation on risk evaluation are unclear. Here we sought to measure the effect of 100 mg oral levodopa, which enhances synaptic release of dopamine, on choice behaviour in healthy humans. We use a paradigm without feedback or learning, which solely isolates effects on risk evaluation. We present two studies (n = 20; n = 20 employing a randomised, placebo-controlled, within-subjects design. We manipulated different dimensions of risk in a controlled economic paradigm. We test effects on risk-reward tradeoffs, assaying both aversion to variance (the spread of possible outcomes and preference for relative losses and gains (asymmetry of outcomes--skewness, dissociating this from potential non-specific effects on choice randomness using behavioural modelling. There were no systematic effects of levodopa on risk attitudes, either for variance or skewness. However, there was a drift towards more risk-averse behaviour over time, indicating that this paradigm was sensitive to detect changes in risk-preferences. These findings suggest that levodopa administration does not change the evaluation of risk. One possible reason is that dopaminergic influences on decision making may be due to changing the response to reward feedback.
Dietary Advanced Glycation End Products and Cardiometabolic Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Luévano-Contreras, Claudia; Gómez-Ojeda, Armando; Macías-Cervantes, Maciste Habacuc; Garay-Sevilla, Ma Eugenia

2017-08-01

This report analyzes emerging evidence about the role of dietary advanced glycation end products (AGEs) as a cardiometabolic risk factor. Two important aspects are discussed: First, the modulation of AGE load by dietary AGEs; second, if the evidence of clinical and observational studies is enough to make dietary recommendations towards lowering AGE intake. Clinical studies in subjects with diabetes mellitus have shown that high intake of dietary AGEs increases inflammation markers, oxidative stress, and could impair endothelial function. In subjects at risk for cardiometabolic diseases (with overweight, obesity, or prediabetes), dietary AGE restriction decreases some inflammatory molecules and improves insulin sensitivity. However, studies in healthy subjects are limited, and not all of the studies have shown a decrease in circulating AGEs. Therefore, it is still unclear if dietary AGEs represent a health concern for people potentially at risk for cardiometabolic diseases. The evidence shows that dietary AGEs are bioavailable and absorbed, and the rate of excretion depends on dietary intake. The metabolic fate of most dietary AGEs remains unknown. Regardless, most studies have shown that by diminishing AGE intake, circulating levels will also decrease. Thus, dietary AGEs can modulate the AGE load at least in patients with DM, overweight, or obesity. Studies with specific clinical outcomes and large-scale observational studies are needed for a better risk assessment of dietary AGEs and to establish dietary recommendations accordingly.
Dairy product consumption and risk of hip fracture: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OpenAIRE

Bian, Shanshan; Hu, Jingmin; Zhang, Kai; Wang, Yunguo; Yu, Miaohui; Ma, Jie

2018-01-01

Background Dairy product consumption may affect the risk of hip fracture, but previous studies have reported inconsistent findings. The primary aim of our meta-analysis was to examine and quantify the potential association of dairy product consumption with risk of hip fracture. Methods We searched the databases of PubMed and EMBASE for relevant articles from their inception through April 17, 2017. The final analysis included 10 cohort studies and 8 case-control studies. Random-effects models ...
A novel method for assessing risks to pollinators from plant protection products using honeybees as a model species.

Science.gov (United States)

Barmaz, Stefania; Potts, Simon G; Vighi, Marco

2010-10-01

Pollination is one of the most important ecosystem services in agroecosystems and supports food production. Pollinators are potentially at risk being exposed to pesticides and the main route of exposure is direct contact, in some cases ingestion, of contaminated materials such as pollen, nectar, flowers and foliage. To date there are no suitable methods for predicting pesticide exposure for pollinators, therefore official procedures to assess pesticide risk are based on a Hazard Quotient. Here we develop a procedure to assess exposure and risk for pollinators based on the foraging behaviour of honeybees (Apis mellifera) and using this species as indicator representative of pollinating insects. The method was applied in 13 European field sites with different climatic, landscape and land use characteristics. The level of risk during the crop growing season was evaluated as a function of the active ingredients used and application regime. Risk levels were primarily determined by the agronomic practices employed (i.e. crop type, pest control method, pesticide use), and there was a clear temporal partitioning of risks through time. Generally the risk was higher in sites cultivated with permanent crops, such as vineyard and olive, than in annual crops, such as cereals and oil seed rape. The greatest level of risk is generally found at the beginning of the growing season for annual crops and later in June-July for permanent crops.
Evaluation of energy related risk acceptance (APHA energy task force)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hull, A.P.

1977-01-01

Living in a technological society with large energy requirements involves a number of related actities with attendant health risks, both to the working and to the general public. Therefore, the formulation of some general principles for risk acceptance is necessary. In addition to maximizing benefits and minimizing risk, relevant considerations must be made about the perception of risk as voluntary or involuntary, the number of persons collectively at risk at any one occasion, and the extent to which a risk is a familiar one. With regard to a given benefit, such as a given amount of energy, comparisons of the risks of alternate modes of production may be utilized. However, cost-benefit consideration is essential to the amelioration of current or prospective risks. This is unusual, since it is based on some estimate of the monetary value per premature death averted. It is proposed that increased longevity would be a more satisfactory measure. On a societal basis, large expenditures for additional energy-related pollution control do not appear justifiable since much larger, nonenergy-related health risks are relatively underaddressed. Knowledgeable health professionals could benefit the public by imparting authoritative information in this area
Estimated risk from exposure to radon decay products in US homes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nero, A.V. Jr.

1986-05-01

Recent analyses now permit direct estimation of the risks of lung cancer from radon decay products in US homes. Analysis of data from indoor monitoring in single-family homes yields a tentative frequency distribution of annual-average 222 Rn concentrations averaging 55 Bq m -3 and having 2% of homes exceeding 300 Bq m -3 . Application of the results of occupational epidemiological studies, either directly or using recent advances in lung dosimetry, to indoor exposures suggests that the average indoor concentration entails a lifetime risk of lung cancer of 0.3% or about 10% of the total risk of lung cancer. The risk to individuals occupying the homes with 300 Bq m -3 or more for their lifetimes is estimated to exceed 2%, with risks from the homes with thousands of Bq m -3 correspondingly higher, even exceeding the total risk of premature death due to cigarette smoking. The potential for such average and high-level risks in ordinary homes forces development of a new perspective on environmental exposures
Global Potential Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and the Risks for Fruit Production in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Marchioro, Cesar A

2016-01-01

The carambola fruit fly, Bactrocera carambolae, is a tephritid native to Asia that has invaded South America through small-scale trade of fruits from Indonesia. The economic losses associated with biological invasions of other fruit flies around the world and the polyphagous behaviour of B. carambolae have prompted much concern among government agencies and farmers with the potential spread of this pest. Here, ecological niche models were employed to identify suitable environments available to B. carambolae in a global scale and assess the extent of the fruit acreage that may be at risk of attack in Brazil. Overall, 30 MaxEnt models built with different combinations of environmental predictors and settings were evaluated for predicting the potential distribution of the carambola fruit fly. The best model was selected based on threshold-independent and threshold-dependent metrics. Climatically suitable areas were identified in tropical and subtropical regions of Central and South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, west and east coast of India and northern Australia. The suitability map of B. carambola was intersected against maps of fruit acreage in Brazil. The acreage under potential risk of attack varied widely among fruit species, which is expected because the production areas are concentrated in different regions of the country. The production of cashew is the one that is at higher risk, with almost 90% of its acreage within the suitable range of B. carambolae, followed by papaya (78%), tangerine (51%), guava (38%), lemon (30%), orange (29%), mango (24%) and avocado (20%). This study provides an important contribution to the knowledge of the ecology of B. carambolae, and the information generated here can be used by government agencies as a decision-making tool to prevent the carambola fruit fly spread across the world.
Global Potential Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and the Risks for Fruit Production in Brazil.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cesar A Marchioro

Full Text Available The carambola fruit fly, Bactrocera carambolae, is a tephritid native to Asia that has invaded South America through small-scale trade of fruits from Indonesia. The economic losses associated with biological invasions of other fruit flies around the world and the polyphagous behaviour of B. carambolae have prompted much concern among government agencies and farmers with the potential spread of this pest. Here, ecological niche models were employed to identify suitable environments available to B. carambolae in a global scale and assess the extent of the fruit acreage that may be at risk of attack in Brazil. Overall, 30 MaxEnt models built with different combinations of environmental predictors and settings were evaluated for predicting the potential distribution of the carambola fruit fly. The best model was selected based on threshold-independent and threshold-dependent metrics. Climatically suitable areas were identified in tropical and subtropical regions of Central and South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, west and east coast of India and northern Australia. The suitability map of B. carambola was intersected against maps of fruit acreage in Brazil. The acreage under potential risk of attack varied widely among fruit species, which is expected because the production areas are concentrated in different regions of the country. The production of cashew is the one that is at higher risk, with almost 90% of its acreage within the suitable range of B. carambolae, followed by papaya (78%, tangerine (51%, guava (38%, lemon (30%, orange (29%, mango (24% and avocado (20%. This study provides an important contribution to the knowledge of the ecology of B. carambolae, and the information generated here can be used by government agencies as a decision-making tool to prevent the carambola fruit fly spread across the world.
Incorporating Risks in Economic Values for Pigs in Smallholder Production Systems in Kenya

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mbuthias, Jackson; Rewe, Thomas; Okeno, Tobias

production systems in Kenya. In addition to traditional bio-economic profit model, a risk-rated model was used to derive risk-rated economic values. This model accounted for imperfect knowledge concerning risk attitude of farmers and variance of input and output prices. Positive economic values obtained...... for traits DP, LWg, LWs, PoSR, PrSR, SoSR and TNB indicate that targeting them in improvement would positively impact profitability in pig breeding programmes. Accounting for risks in the EVs did not yield errors greater than ±50%. Therefore both traditional and risk-rated models can be satisfactorily used...
Impact evaluation of productive use—An implementation guideline for electrification projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bensch, Gunther; Peters, Jörg; Schmidt, Christoph M.

2012-01-01

There is a consensus in the international community that rural electrification and, in particular, the productive use of electricity contributes to poverty alleviation. At the same time, efforts to evaluate the impacts of development projects have increased substantially. This paper provides a hands-on guide for designing evaluation studies regarding the impacts of productive electricity usage. Complementary to the existing literature on evaluation methods, this guide familiarizes project managers with the concrete steps that have to be undertaken to plan and implement an evaluation. The guide comprises three modules based on enterprise surveys and on anecdotal case studies. For each module, the implementation is described on a step-by-step basis including conceptual issues as well as logistics and methodological questions. - Highlights: ► Hands-on evaluation guideline for development project managers. ► Step-by-step procedure on how to implement evaluation. ► Impacts of productive electricity use.
Biochemical Benefits, Diagnosis, and Clinical Risks Evaluation of Kratom

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimy Fluyau

2017-04-01

Full Text Available BackgroundKratom (Mitragyna speciosa is a tropical tree with a long history of traditional use in parts of Africa and Southeast Asia. Kratom is also known as Thom, Thang, and Biak. Its leaves and the teas brewed from them have long been used by people in that region to manage pain and opioid withdrawal and to stave off fatigue. Kratom is actually consumed throughout the world for its stimulant effects and as an opioid substitute (in form of tea, chewed, smoked, or ingested in capsules. Some case reports have associated kratom exposure with psychosis, seizures, intrahepatic cholestasis, other medical conditions, and deaths. The clinical manifestations of kratom effects are not well defined and the clinical studies are limited. Data research suggest that both stimulant and sedative dose-dependent effects do exist, in addition to antinociceptive, antidepressant activity, anxiolytic-like effects, and anorectic effects, but a growing concern for the drug’s effects and safety of use has resulted in national and international attention primarily due to an increase in hospital visits and deaths in several countries that are believed to have been caused by extracts of the plant. There is a dearth of double blind controlled studies. In this study, we aim to use existing literature to clarify both benefits and risks of kratom as well as its diagnosis evaluation as kratom misuse is an emerging trend in the Western world.MethodsLiterature review using databases such as Embase, Medline, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Mendeley from 2007 to 2017 were evaluated by all authors to analyze current state on benefits, risks, and diagnosis evaluation of kratom (M. speciosa.ResultsData analysis suggested that kratom possesses some benefits such as stimulant and sedative effects as wells as antinociceptive effects. It seems to inhibit pro-inflammatory mediator release and vascular permeability and can enhance immunity. In addition, it may be an antidepressant and
Quality Risk Evaluation of the Food Supply Chain Using a Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model and Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Libiao Bai

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Evaluating the quality risk level in the food supply chain can reduce quality information asymmetry and food quality incidents and promote nationally integrated regulations for food quality. In order to evaluate it, a quality risk evaluation indicator system for the food supply chain is constructed based on an extensive literature review in this paper. Furthermore, a mathematical model based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the quality risk level in the food supply chain is developed. A computational experiment aimed at verifying the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model is conducted on the basis of a questionnaire survey. The results suggest that this model can be used as a general guideline to assess the quality risk level in the food supply chain and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on food quality management.
Evaluation and Modification of Processes for Bioethanol Separation and Production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johnner P Sitompul

2012-04-01

Full Text Available This paper concerns on process evaluation and modification for bioethanol separation and production by applying pinch technology. Further, the paper is also focused on obtaining a most energy-efficient process among several processes. Three basic process configurations of bioethanol separation and production were selected for this study. The three separations and production systems are Othmer process, Barbet process and a separation process that operates under vacuum condition. Basically, each process is combination of Danish Distilleries process with a separation system yielding 95% (v/v bioethanol. The production capacity of the plant is estimated about 4 x 107 litre of bioethanol 95% (v/v per year. The result of the studies shows that the most energy efficient process among the three processes evaluated is the Othmer process, followed by the Barbet process and the process involving vacuum operation. The evaluation also shows that further energy saving can be carried for Barbet and Othmer process configuration when Tmin = 10oC for heat exchange possible.
Risk Evaluation on UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on AHP and FCE Method

OpenAIRE

Huiru Zhao; Sen Guo

2014-01-01

Ultra high voltage (UHV) power transmission construction project is a high-tech power grid construction project which faces many risks and uncertainty. Identifying the risk of UHV power transmission construction project can help mitigate the risk loss and promote the smooth construction. The risk evaluation on “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project was performed based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method in this paper. Afte...
Environmental risk evaluation to minimize impacts within the area affected by the Wenchuan earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du, Pengfei; Chen, Jining; Chen, Chao; Liu, Yi; Liu, Jianguo; Wang, Hongtao; Zhang, Xiaojian

2012-01-01

Earthquakes can be devastating to built infrastructure and the natural environment, as evidenced by the March 2011, M = 9.0 earthquake, and subsequent tsunami, in Japan. As seen in the Japanese event, environmental damage caused by secondary disasters (tsunami, leakage from a nuclear reactor) can equal or exceed the impacts of the primary event. In order to develop an environmental assessment system to examine secondary disasters, a comprehensive environmental impact evaluation was conducted after the Wenchuan earthquake that occurred on 12 May 2008 in the Sichuan Province, China. This evaluation focused on several key environmental elements such as wastewater, drinking water, soil, solid waste, radiation, and ecosystem-level effects. As part of this assessment, an analysis of root causes and potential solutions was conducted for key issues such as population relocation and resettlement in temporary dwellings, recovery of environmental protection functions, industrial development strategies and production recovery. Methods for post-quake environmental assessment were developed, utilizing GIS-based techniques for spatial evaluation of primary and secondary disaster patterns. The goal of this exercise was the development of effective assessment methods that can be rapidly applied in a post-disaster situation to reduce and mitigate damage caused by secondary disasters, and facilitate the recovery of impaired environmental management structure and function. - Highlights: ► A comprehensive post-quake environmental risk evaluation system was developed. ► The research identifies potential long-term environmental risks in many aspects. ► The research analyzes potential solutions for many typical post-disaster issues. ► Effective assessment methods can be applied in a post-disaster situation to reduce damage caused by secondary disasters.

Environmental risk evaluation to minimize impacts within the area affected by the Wenchuan earthquake

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Du, Pengfei, E-mail: dupf@tsinghua.edu.cn; Chen, Jining, E-mail: jchen1@tsinghua.edu.cn; Chen, Chao, E-mail: chen_water@tsinghua.edu.cn; Liu, Yi, E-mail: yi.liu@tsinghua.edu.cn; Liu, Jianguo, E-mail: jgliu@tsinghua.edu.cn; Wang, Hongtao, E-mail: htwang@tsinghua.edu.cn; Zhang, Xiaojian, E-mail: zhangxj@tsinghua.edu.cn

2012-03-01

Earthquakes can be devastating to built infrastructure and the natural environment, as evidenced by the March 2011, M = 9.0 earthquake, and subsequent tsunami, in Japan. As seen in the Japanese event, environmental damage caused by secondary disasters (tsunami, leakage from a nuclear reactor) can equal or exceed the impacts of the primary event. In order to develop an environmental assessment system to examine secondary disasters, a comprehensive environmental impact evaluation was conducted after the Wenchuan earthquake that occurred on 12 May 2008 in the Sichuan Province, China. This evaluation focused on several key environmental elements such as wastewater, drinking water, soil, solid waste, radiation, and ecosystem-level effects. As part of this assessment, an analysis of root causes and potential solutions was conducted for key issues such as population relocation and resettlement in temporary dwellings, recovery of environmental protection functions, industrial development strategies and production recovery. Methods for post-quake environmental assessment were developed, utilizing GIS-based techniques for spatial evaluation of primary and secondary disaster patterns. The goal of this exercise was the development of effective assessment methods that can be rapidly applied in a post-disaster situation to reduce and mitigate damage caused by secondary disasters, and facilitate the recovery of impaired environmental management structure and function. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A comprehensive post-quake environmental risk evaluation system was developed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The research identifies potential long-term environmental risks in many aspects. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The research analyzes potential solutions for many typical post-disaster issues. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Effective assessment methods can be applied in a post-disaster situation to reduce damage caused by secondary disasters.
Production and evaluation of (multimodal) answers to medical questions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Hooijdonk, C.M.J.; Krahmer, E.; Maes, A.; Theune, Mariet; Bosma, W.E.; Maes, A.; Ainsworth, S.

This paper describes two experiments carried out to investigate the production and evaluation of multimodal answer presentations in the context of a medical question answering system. In a production experiment participants had to produce answers to different types of questions. The results show
Risk management methodology applied at thermal power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coppolino, R.

2007-01-01

Nowadays, the responsibility of the environmental risks, connected the productive processes and to the products of an enterprise, represent one of the main aspects which an adequate management approach has to foresee. In this paper it has been evaluated the guidelines followed by Edipower Thermoelectric Power plant of S. Filippo di Mela (ME). These guidelines were given in order to manage the chemical risk connected to the usage of various chemicals with which the workers get in touch when identifying the risks of the methodology introduced by the AZ/NZS 4360:2004 Risk Management Standard
Pharmaceuticals and personal care products in waters: occurrence, toxicity, and risk

OpenAIRE

Cizmas, Leslie; Sharma, Virender K.; Gray, Cole M.; McDonald, Thomas J.

2015-01-01

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCP) are compounds with special physical and chemical properties that address the care of animal and human health. PPCP have been detected in surface water and wastewater in the ng/L to ��g/L concentration range worldwide. PPCP ecotoxicity has been studied in a variety of organisms, and multiple methods have been used to assess the risk of PPCP in the environment to ecological health. Here we review the occurrence, effects, and risk assessment of P...
Food and Drug Administration Evaluation and Cigarette Smoking Risk Perceptions

Science.gov (United States)

Kaufman, Annette R.; Waters, Erika A.; Parascandola, Mark; Augustson, Erik M.; Bansal-Travers, Maansi; Hyland, Andrew; Cummings, K. Michael

2011-01-01

Objectives: To examine the relationship between a belief about Food and Drug Administration (FDA) safety evaluation of cigarettes and smoking risk perceptions. Methods: A nationally representative, random-digit-dialed telephone survey of 1046 adult current cigarette smokers. Results: Smokers reporting that the FDA does not evaluate cigarettes for…
Chemical mixtures: Evaluation of risk for child-specific exposures in a multi-stressor environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pohl, H.R.; Abadin, H.G.

2008-01-01

Evaluating the health impact from exposure to chemical mixtures is multifaceted. One component is exposure. Exposure, and consequently risk assessment for mixtures and chemicals in general, are often viewed in terms of a given exposure to a given population at a given location over a given time period. However, environmental exposures are present throughout human lifetime. As a result, an evaluation of risk must include the distinctive characteristics related to chemical exposures which will impact risk depending upon the particular life stage where exposure occurs. Risks to offspring may be associated with unique exposures in utero, during infancy, childhood, or adolescent periods. For example, exposure of infants to anthropogenic chemicals via breast milk may be of concern. The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry's (ATSDR's) approach to evaluating risks associated with exposure to mixtures of chemicals is presented. In addition to the breast milk issues, indoor exposure to combined air pollutants, drinking water contaminants, and soil and dust contaminants are discussed. The difference between a mixture's risk evaluation for children and adults is in the distinct exposure scenarios resulting from variations in behavior, physiology, and/or pharmacokinetics between adults and children rather than in the method for the specific mixtures evaluation per se
Acceptability of the Risk Importance Measures in Evaluation of a Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

1996-01-01

In this paper, the authors discuss insights gained from evaluating changes to plant design and operational practices. Evaluation of a change is performed in order to provide an answer to two fundamental questions: what is the impact and is the impact acceptable? In order to determine 'the acceptability of an impact', the risk-based technologies today provide various ranking schemes. They are based on the existing IPE studies or PSA models and use of standard risk importance measures. In 'ad hoc' applications of risk importance measures, the specific nature of the analyzed change is often neglected. This paper attempts to capture the most common problems in the application of importance measures, and defines the limits of this application. The authors' position is that the use of risk importance information as the sole basis to accept or reject with ranking results, after the basis for the rank is meaningfully established. (author)
Rape Prevention with College Men: Evaluating Risk Status

Science.gov (United States)

Stephens, Kari A.; George, William H.

2009-01-01

This study evaluates the effectiveness of a theoretically based rape prevention intervention with college men who were at high or low risk to perpetrate sexually coercive behavior. Participants (N = 146) are randomly assigned to the intervention or control group. Outcomes include rape myth acceptance, victim empathy, attraction to sexual…
The evaluation of mercury in honey bees and their products from eastern Slovakia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomas Toth

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Heavy metals are a major source of environmental pollution, and have a significant impact on ecological quality of the environment. The human activity affects the environment so there is a high risk of metal accumulation. Heavy metals contaminate not only the environment but accumulate in the human body, from which it is difficult to degrade them. The long tradition of beekeeping in the world is proof that bees are irreplaceable and important pollinators of plants and crops, which are necessary to maintain the prosperity of agriculture. Beekeeping up to the present is still popular and is ecologically and economically significant. The aim of this study was to determine total mercury content in the body of bees and their products (bee pollen, honey of selected locations in eastern Slovakia, evaluation of obtained results according to current standards and compared to the values established by the Food Codex of the Slovak Republic and The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA, according to which mercury is a metal that is released into the environment from both natural sources and as a result of human activity. The mercury element can occur as inorganic mercury (mercurous (Hg22+ and mercuric (Hg2+ cations, and organic mercury. Methylmercury (MeHg is by far the most common form of organic mercury in the food chain. The tested bees and their products were collected from apiaries located in the area of the University of Veterinary Medicine and Pharmacy in Košice and the apiary in Rozhanovce. The evaluation of the impact of environmental contamination by hazardous substances is very important regards to the protection of bees and not least to protect the health of people as consumers of food products containing residues of industrial production.
Technology and Risk Sciences Program. FY99 Annual Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Regens, James L.

2000-01-01

In making the transition from weapons production to environmental restoration, DOE has found that it needs to develop reliable means of defining and understanding health and environmental risks and of selecting cost-efficient environmental management technologies so that cleanup activities can be appropriately directed. Through the Technology and Risk Sciences Project, the Entergy Spatial Analysis Research Laboratory attempts to provide DOE with products that incorporate spatial analysis techniques in the risk assessment, communication, and management processes; design and evaluate methods for evaluating innovative environmental technologies; and collaborate and access technical information on risk assessment methodologies, including multimedia modeling and environmental technologies in Russia and the Ukraine, while in addition training and developing the skills of the next generation of scientists and environmental professionals
Technology and Risk Sciences Program. FY99 Annual Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Regens, James L.

2000-01-01

In making the transition from weapons production to environmental restoration, DOE has found that it needs to develop reliable means of defining and understanding health and environmental risks and of selecting cost-efficient environmental management technologies so that cleanup activities can be appropriately directed. Through the Technology and Risk Sciences Project, the Entergy Spatial Analysis Research Laboratory attempts to provide DOE with products that incorporate spatial analysis techniques in the risk assessment, communication, and management processes; design and evaluate methods for evaluating innovative environmental technologies; and collaborate and access technical information on risk assessment methodologies, including multimedia modeling and environmental technologies in Russia and the Ukraine, while in addition training and developing the skills of the next generation of scientists and environmental professionals.
Microbial risk assessment of Vibrio spp. in seafood products in Mexico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karla M López-Hernández

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Food-borne diseases are among the major public health problems that currently exist. Microbiological risk assessment is a process used to evaluate the hidden hazards in food, the likelihood of exposure to these hazards and their impact on public health. Risk assessment is performed in four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, assessment of exposure and risk characterization. According to the process/response microbial risk assessment is classified in two categories, qualitative and quantitative. The aim of this review is to underline the importance of implementing assessments in seafood that is usually consumed raw, strengthening access to good quality and safe food for the consumer’s benefit and to stress the necessity of microbiological risks assessments in Mexico.
Economic evaluation of coalbed methane production in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo Dongkun; Dai Youjin

2009-01-01

Roaring natural gas demand, energy security and environment protection concerns coupled with stringent emission reduction requirement have made China's abundant coalbed methane (CBM) resource an increasingly valuable energy source. However, not all of China's CBM resource is economic to develop under current technological condition and economic situation. In order to locate the CBM resource with economic viability to develop in China, economic evaluation of CBM production is conducted by applying net present value (NPV) method. The results indicate that more than half of CBM resource in China is economic to develop. It shows that CBM price, production rate and operating costs are the three major factors with most impact on the economic viability of the CBM development in target areas in China. The result also demonstrates that the economic limit production is roughly 1200 cubic meters per day. These economic evaluation results provide important information for both CBM companies and China government.
Evaluation of the risk of exposure to radon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monchaux, G.

2001-01-01

The aim of this project was to assess the risk due to inhalation of radon and its decay products using a horizontal approach across a large-scale research programme. The central objective was the assessment of human risk, a task that required a combination of several programmes and involved a multidisciplinary approach. Five main topics were addressed: radioactive aerosol studies, modelling, human studies, animal studies and retrospective assessment of radon exposure. The five studies were distributed between working groups. The rationale of this project was to pool the expertise from laboratories working in different fields of radiation protection. This paper summarises the main achievements made through this multidisciplinary research programme and the synergies that occurred between the different groups. (author)
Adolescent Boys' Grooming Product Use and Perceived Health Risks: An Exploration of Parental Influence

Science.gov (United States)

Yoo, Jeong-Ju; Jacob, John; Baier, Margaret

2012-01-01

Objective: To investigate parental influence on adolescent boys' use and risk-perceptions of using appearance-related products. Design: Using appearance-enhancing products can present a health threat to adolescents, as these products are not only applied to the body, but can also be ingested. Adolescents may look to their parents for information…
Analysing Production Technology and Risk in Organic and Conventional Dutch Arable Farming using Panel Data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gardebroek, C.; Chavez Clemente, M.D.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

2010-01-01

Abstract This paper compares the production technology and production risk of organic and conventional arable farms in the Netherlands. Just–Pope production functions that explicitly account for output variability are estimated using panel data of Dutch organic and conventional farms. Prior
Development and evaluation of a risk communication curriculum for medical students

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Han, P.K.; Joekes, K.; Elwyn, G.; Mazor, K.M.; Thomson, R.; Sedgwick, P.; Ibison, J.; Wong, J.B.

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To develop, pilot, and evaluate a curriculum for teaching clinical risk communication skills to medical students. METHODS: A new experience-based curriculum, "Risk Talk," was developed and piloted over a 1-year period among students at Tufts University School of Medicine. An experimental
The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

Science.gov (United States)

Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

2017-05-01

Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.
Tables of RCN-2 fission-product cross section evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gruppelaar, H.

1979-05-01

This report (continuation of ECN-13 and ECN-33) describes the third part of the RCN-2 evaluation of neutron cross sections for fission product nuclides in KEDAK format. It contains evaluated data for nine nuclides, i.e. 142 Nd, 143 Nd, 144 Nd, 145 Nd, 146 Nd, 147 Nd, 148 Nd, 150 Nd and 147 Pm. Most emphasis has been given to the evaluation of the radiative capture cross section, in order to provide a data base for adjustment calculations using results of integral measurements. Short evaluation reports are given for this cross section. The evaluated capture cross sections are compared with recent experimental differential and integral data. Graphs are given of the capture cross sections at neutron energies above 1 keV, in which also adjusted point cross sections, based upon integral STEK and CFRMF data have been plotted. Moreover, the results are compared with those of the well-known ENDF/B-IV evaluation for fission product nucleides. Finally, evaluation summaries are given, which include tables of other important neutron cross sections, such as the total, elastic scattering and inelastic scattering cross sections
Benefit-risk evaluation of mammographic mass screening

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sato, Nobuo; Ogura, Toshihiro

1990-01-01

This study evaluated the benefit-risk balance of mammography in mass screening by using survival rates from 3000 breast cancer patients at the Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research Institute Hospital. Because the number of participants in mammographic mass screening was small, asymptomatic patients with pathologically proven early breast cancer were categorized as the screenee group. Symptomatic patients were categorized as the patient group. Survival rates were compared in both the screenee and the patient groups. Based on the difference in areas of survival curves between screenees and patients, the ratio of person-year gain (PYG) to person-year lost (PYL) was obtained. The ratio of PYG to PYL was multiplied by the detection rate resulting from a particular screening program to obtain the benefit/risk ratio. The detection rate of nonpalpable breast cancer was 15 times higher in the screenee group than the patient group. Breast cancer was detected in 7 (0.85%) of 824 patients in the screenee group. Even when mammographic mass screening was started at the age of 30, the benefit of mammography was far superior to the risk. The number of participants in mass screening stratified by age may be required for the conclusion of the benefit-risk balance of mammography in mass screening. (N.K.)

SU-E-P-07: Evaluation of Productivity Systems for Radiation Therapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramsey, C; Usynin, A [Thompson Cancer Survival Center, Knoxville, TN (United States)

2014-06-01

Purpose: Health systems throughout the United States are under increased financial pressure to reduce operating cost. As a result, productivity models developed by third-party consultants are being used to optimize staff to treatment volumes. The purpose of this study was to critically evaluate productivity systems for radiation oncology. Methods: Staffing efficiency was evaluated using multiple productivity models. The first model evaluated staffing levels using equal weighting of procedure codes and hours worked. A second productivity model was developed using hours worked by job class and relative value units for each procedure code. A third model was developed using the measured procedure times extracted from the electronic medical record, which tracks the wait and treatment times for each patient for each treatment fraction. A MatLab program was developed to query and analyze the daily treatment data. A model was then created to determine any theoretical gains in treatment productivity. Results: Productivity was evaluated for six radiation therapy departments operating nine linear accelerators delivering over 40,000 treatment fractions per year. Third party productivity models that do not take into consideration the unique nature of radiation therapy can be counterproductive. For example, other outpatient departments can compress their daily schedule to decrease the worked hours. This approach was tested using the treatment schedule evaluation tool developed as part of this study. It was determined that the maximum possible savings for treatment schedule compression was $32,000 per year per linac. All annual cost savings would be lost if only two patients per year choose to be treated elsewhere because of limited or restricted appointment times. Conclusion: The use of productivity models in radiation therapy can easily result in a loss of treatment revenue that is greater than any potential cost savings in reduced hours worked by staff.
SU-E-P-07: Evaluation of Productivity Systems for Radiation Therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramsey, C; Usynin, A

2014-01-01

Purpose: Health systems throughout the United States are under increased financial pressure to reduce operating cost. As a result, productivity models developed by third-party consultants are being used to optimize staff to treatment volumes. The purpose of this study was to critically evaluate productivity systems for radiation oncology. Methods: Staffing efficiency was evaluated using multiple productivity models. The first model evaluated staffing levels using equal weighting of procedure codes and hours worked. A second productivity model was developed using hours worked by job class and relative value units for each procedure code. A third model was developed using the measured procedure times extracted from the electronic medical record, which tracks the wait and treatment times for each patient for each treatment fraction. A MatLab program was developed to query and analyze the daily treatment data. A model was then created to determine any theoretical gains in treatment productivity. Results: Productivity was evaluated for six radiation therapy departments operating nine linear accelerators delivering over 40,000 treatment fractions per year. Third party productivity models that do not take into consideration the unique nature of radiation therapy can be counterproductive. For example, other outpatient departments can compress their daily schedule to decrease the worked hours. This approach was tested using the treatment schedule evaluation tool developed as part of this study. It was determined that the maximum possible savings for treatment schedule compression was $32,000 per year per linac. All annual cost savings would be lost if only two patients per year choose to be treated elsewhere because of limited or restricted appointment times. Conclusion: The use of productivity models in radiation therapy can easily result in a loss of treatment revenue that is greater than any potential cost savings in reduced hours worked by staff
A Science Products Inventory for Citizen-Science Planning and Evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Wiggins, Andrea; Bonney, Rick; LeBuhn, Gretchen; Parrish, Julia K; Weltzin, Jake F

2018-06-01

Citizen science involves a range of practices involving public participation in scientific knowledge production, but outcomes evaluation is complicated by the diversity of the goals and forms of citizen science. Publications and citations are not adequate metrics to describe citizen-science productivity. We address this gap by contributing a science products inventory (SPI) tool, iteratively developed through an expert panel and case studies, intended to support general-purpose planning and evaluation of citizen-science projects with respect to science productivity. The SPI includes a collection of items for tracking the production of science outputs and data practices, which are described and illustrated with examples. Several opportunities for further development of the initial inventory are highlighted, as well as potential for using the inventory as a tool to guide project management, funding, and research on citizen science.
A science products inventory for citizen-science planning and evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Wiggins, Andrea; Bonney, Rick; LeBuhn, Gretchen; Parrish, Julia K.; Weltzin, Jake F.

2018-01-01

Citizen science involves a range of practices involving public participation in scientific knowledge production, but outcomes evaluation is complicated by the diversity of the goals and forms of citizen science. Publications and citations are not adequate metrics to describe citizen-science productivity. We address this gap by contributing a science products inventory (SPI) tool, iteratively developed through an expert panel and case studies, intended to support general-purpose planning and evaluation of citizen-science projects with respect to science productivity. The SPI includes a collection of items for tracking the production of science outputs and data practices, which are described and illustrated with examples. Several opportunities for further development of the initial inventory are highlighted, as well as potential for using the inventory as a tool to guide project management, funding, and research on citizen science.
A Science Products Inventory for Citizen-Science Planning and Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Wiggins, Andrea; Bonney, Rick; LeBuhn, Gretchen; Parrish, Julia K; Weltzin, Jake F

2018-01-01

Abstract Citizen science involves a range of practices involving public participation in scientific knowledge production, but outcomes evaluation is complicated by the diversity of the goals and forms of citizen science. Publications and citations are not adequate metrics to describe citizen-science productivity. We address this gap by contributing a science products inventory (SPI) tool, iteratively developed through an expert panel and case studies, intended to support general-purpose planning and evaluation of citizen-science projects with respect to science productivity. The SPI includes a collection of items for tracking the production of science outputs and data practices, which are described and illustrated with examples. Several opportunities for further development of the initial inventory are highlighted, as well as potential for using the inventory as a tool to guide project management, funding, and research on citizen science. PMID:29867254
Ergonomic evaluation of workload by milk production - a bibliometric analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

de Oliveira, Claudilaine Caldas; Pereira Moro, Antônio Renato; Ulbricht, Leandra; Belinelli, Marjorie; de Souza, Gilberto F M; Gabriel, Michele; Zattar, Izabel Cristina

2017-09-21

The purpose of this study was to select in a structured manner the relevant articles with scientific recognition, and simultaneously identify the characteristics of these publications that may scientifically enrich the theme in a portfolio of papers. The theme involves ergonomics in milk production as a criterion for evaluating and improving organizational performance in the milking sector. The study used ProKnow-C as a theoretical instrument for intervention. The main results show: i) a bibliographic portfolio of 18 items aligned with the view adopted by researchers which served as a theoretical framework for this research; ii) The article entitled "Wrist positions and movements as possible risk factors during machine milking", by Marianne Stål, Gert-Åke Hansson and Ulrich Moritz in 1999 and published in the Journal of Applied Ergonomics presented the highest scientific recognition, iii) the authors highlighted in the bibliographic portfolio or in its references researching the subject are Gert-Åke Hansson, Marianne Stål and Stefan Pinzke, and iv) the International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics shows the highest number of scientific articles in the bibliographic portfolio. The studies selected using the methodology indicate research in ergonomics focused on the production of milk in rural areas, specifically in the milking sector, are generally related to the health and safety of the workers.
Evaluation of Environmental Quality Productive Ecosystem Guayas (Ecuador).

Science.gov (United States)

Pozo, Wilson; Pardo, Francisco; Sanfeliu, Teófilo; Carrera, Gloria; Jordan, Manuel; Bech, Jaume; Roca, Núria

2015-04-01

Natural resources are deteriorating very rapidly in the Gulf of Guayaquil and the area of influence in the Guayas Basin due to human activity. Specific problems are generated by the mismanagement of the aquaculture industry affecting the traditional agricultural sectors: rice, banana, sugarcane, cocoa, coffee, and soya also studied, and by human and industrial settlements. The development of industrial activities such as aquaculture (shrimp building for shrimp farming in ponds) and agriculture, have increasingly contributed to the generation of waste, degrading and potentially toxic elements in high concentrations, which can have adverse effects on organisms in the ecosystems, in the health of the population and damage the ecological and environmental balance. The productive Guayas ecosystem, consists of three interrelated ecosystems, the Gulf of Guayaquil, the Guayas River estuary and the Guayas Basin buffer. The objective of this study was to evaluate the environmental quality of the productive Guayas ecosystem (Ecuador), through operational and specific objectives: 1) Draw up the transition coastal zone in the Gulf of Guayaquil, 2) Set temporal spatial variability of soil salinity in wetlands rice, Lower Guayas Basin, 3) evaluate the heavy metals in wetland rice in the Lower Basin of Guayas. The physical and chemical parameters of the soils have been studied. These are indicators of environmental quality. The multivariate statistical method showed the relations of similarities and dissimilarities between variables and parameter studies as stable. Moreover, the boundaries of coastal transition areas, temporal spatial variability of soil salinity and heavy metals in rice cultivation in the Lower Basin of Guayas were researched. The sequential studies included and discussed represent a broad framework of fundamental issues that has been valued as a basic component of the productive Guayas ecosystem. They are determinants of the environmental quality of the Guayas
Product evaluation phase 1 report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kearsey, H.A.; Cumming, I.W.

1984-01-01

This report concerns the intermediate-level radioactive waste arisings from the reprocessing of irradiated nuclear fuel at BNFL Sellafield. The waste occurs as the product of the process to remove carbon-14 from the THORP dissolver off-gas using a caustic scrubber. The carbon dioxide released during fuel dissolution is ultimately fixed as barium carbonate. Headings are: introduction (origin of waste, current stocks and future arisings); waste characterisation; initial evaluation of potential matrices for encapsulation of waste in form suitable for disposal; waste simulation. (U.K.)
Evaluating Antimutagenic Activity of Probiotic Bacteria Isolated from Probiotic Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R Kazemi Darsanki

2012-07-01

Full Text Available
Background and Objectives: Probiotic bacteria are microbial nutrition supplements which have useful effects on human health by maintaining of bowel microbial balance. There are many studies that have been suggested the use of probiotic products as cancer risk reducer. The aim of this study, is isolation and detection of probiotic agents from yoghurt and probiotical tablet and evaluation of their abilities to decrease some effects of mutagenic and carcinogenic agents.

Methods: In this study, probiotic bacteria were isolated from yogurt and probiotic tablet by using MRS in anaerobic condition (5% Co₂ and gas peck and temperature of 37°c. Then, they were detected by using biochemical tests. Their anti mutagenic effects of supernatant culture were evaluated against mutagenic agents of azid Sodium and Potassium Permanganate by ames test (Salmonella typhimurium TA100 in presence and absence of S₉.

Results: Six probiotic bacteria were isolated from yogurt and probiotic tablet. Their anti mutagenic activity results based on ames test showed they can inhibit mutagenic agents more than 40% in some species, which is considered as a good result.

Conclusion: The results of this study show that the use of probiotic bacteria found in different products such as yogurt and probiotic tablets, have proper anti mutagenic and anti carcinogenic effects. They change the micro flora of bowel and, as a result, reduce absorption of mutagenic and carcinogenic agents and help to maintain human health.
Evaluating Risk Communication After the Fukushima Disaster Based on Nudge Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Murakami, Michio; Tsubokura, Masaharu

2017-03-01

Using nudge theory and some examples of risk communication that followed the Fukushima disaster, this article discusses the influences and justifications of risk communication, in addition to how risk communication systems are designed. To assist people in making decisions based on their own value systems, we provide three suggestions, keeping in mind that people can be influenced (ie, "nudged") depending on how risk communication takes place: (1) accumulate knowledge on the process of evaluating how the method of risk communication and a system's default design could impact people; (2) clarify the purpose and outcomes of risk communication; and (3) see what risk communication might be ethically unjustifiable. Quantitative studies on risk communication and collective narratives will provide some ideas for how to design better risk communication systems and to help people make decisions. Furthermore, we have shown examples of unjustifiable risk communication.
Policy and health implications of using the U.S. Food and Drug Administration product design approach in reducing tobacco product risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Givel, Michael

2008-06-01

Purported risk or harm reduction through product design change of cigarettes has occurred in three phases in the U.S. The first phase from the 1940s to the early 1960s included a gradual rise in filtered cigarettes. The second phase, which began in the early 1960s in response to the landmark 1964 U.S. Surgeon General's report that linked smoking with lung cancer and other diseases, included the introduction of purportedly low tar and nicotine cigarettes. Subsequent research found that both filters and low tar and nicotine cigarettes were ineffective approaches to reducing health risks associated with smoking. Despite this, these product design changes were used in tobacco industry marketing campaigns to allay consumer health concerns and stabilize tobacco markets and sales. Since 2004, a new risk or harm reduction phase has occurred with the backing by Philip Morris as well as major U.S. health groups of U.S. Food and Drug Administration legislation that would require disclosure of tobacco ingredients, ban misleading health claims, prohibit or reduce harmful ingredients, and require prior approval of tobacco design, performance changes, and modified risk tobacco products. However, current scientific literature indicates that there is no scientific consensus and little evidence on what tobacco ingredients are linked to particular morbidities and mortalities and at what levels. This will allow the tobacco industry to implicitly or explicitly claim their products are "safer." Instead, health advocates should advocate for scientifically proven policy measures such as smoke free public places or higher tobacco taxes that control and reduce tobacco markets and consumption.
Risks from principal components and their daughter products in alpha-contaminated waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogers, V.

1982-01-01

This paper presents an overview on risk assessment, particularly as it applies to limits for alpha-contaminated waste. The general conclusions are: (1) no special characteristics of transuranic (TRU) waste justify its being a special category; (2) model calculations are largely subjective and can be influenced by the bias of the modeler; (3) ingrowth and concentration of TRU daughter products could be an important consideration in risk assessment. 13 figures
A European Commission software tool for radon risk calculation and evaluation of countermeasures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Degrange, J.P.; Levy, F.P. [CEPN, Fontenay-aux-Roses Cedex (France); Birchall, A.; Haylock, R.; Marsh, J.; Muirhead, C. [National Radiological Protection Board, Chilton (United Kingdom); Janssens, A. [European Commission, DG XI (Luxembourg)

2000-05-01

The effects of exposure to radon on workers and members of the public have been examined for many years. Recent advances have been made in evaluating the risk associated with radon exposure and in implementing remediation programmes in dwellings. However, decisions about whether to implement countermeasures to reduce radon exposures may benefit from an enhanced capability to evaluate and understand the associated health risk. In this context, the European Commission has launched a project to develop a user friendly software package based upon current information on radon epidemiology, radon dosimetry, demography, and countermeasure efficiency. The software has been designed to perform lung cancer risk calculations specific to European populations for various exposure profiles and to evaluate, in terms of risk reduction, the efficiency of various countermeasures in dwellings. This paper presents an overview of the general structure of the software and outlines its most important modelling approaches. The software is able to evaluate the risk of fatal lung cancer associated with individual or collective exposure to radon. The individual risk calculation module determines, for an individual of given age, sex and tobacco consumption, the excess risk for a given exposure (past or future exposure) time-profile, on the basis of demographic data (WHO, 1996 and 1998) specific to the selected population. The collective risk calculation module determines the excess risk for each occupant of a dwelling, for an exposure time-profile derived from data describing the dwelling, its occupancy, and the chosen countermeasures. These calculations may be done using one of two classical approaches: 1) The epidemiological approach in which the risk is obtained directly from the radon exposure data using a risk model (BEIR IV, 1988; BEIR VI, 1999) derived from epidemiological studies of uranium miners; 2) The dosimetric approach in which the risk is derived from the radon exposure data
A European Commission software tool for radon risk calculation and evaluation of countermeasures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Degrange, J.P.; Levy, F.P.; Birchall, A.; Haylock, R.; Marsh, J.; Muirhead, C.; Janssens, A.

2000-01-01

The effects of exposure to radon on workers and members of the public have been examined for many years. Recent advances have been made in evaluating the risk associated with radon exposure and in implementing remediation programmes in dwellings. However, decisions about whether to implement countermeasures to reduce radon exposures may benefit from an enhanced capability to evaluate and understand the associated health risk. In this context, the European Commission has launched a project to develop a user friendly software package based upon current information on radon epidemiology, radon dosimetry, demography, and countermeasure efficiency. The software has been designed to perform lung cancer risk calculations specific to European populations for various exposure profiles and to evaluate, in terms of risk reduction, the efficiency of various countermeasures in dwellings. This paper presents an overview of the general structure of the software and outlines its most important modelling approaches. The software is able to evaluate the risk of fatal lung cancer associated with individual or collective exposure to radon. The individual risk calculation module determines, for an individual of given age, sex and tobacco consumption, the excess risk for a given exposure (past or future exposure) time-profile, on the basis of demographic data (WHO, 1996 and 1998) specific to the selected population. The collective risk calculation module determines the excess risk for each occupant of a dwelling, for an exposure time-profile derived from data describing the dwelling, its occupancy, and the chosen countermeasures. These calculations may be done using one of two classical approaches: 1) The epidemiological approach in which the risk is obtained directly from the radon exposure data using a risk model (BEIR IV, 1988; BEIR VI, 1999) derived from epidemiological studies of uranium miners; 2) The dosimetric approach in which the risk is derived from the radon exposure data
Evaluation of Mobile Phone and Cordless Phone Use and Glioma Risk Using the Bradford Hill Viewpoints from 1965 on Association or Causation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Carlberg

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. Bradford Hill’s viewpoints from 1965 on association or causation were used on glioma risk and use of mobile or cordless phones. Methods. All nine viewpoints were evaluated based on epidemiology and laboratory studies. Results. Strength: meta-analysis of case-control studies gave odds ratio (OR = 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI = 1.31–2.76 with highest cumulative exposure. Consistency: the risk increased with latency, meta-analysis gave in the 10+ years’ latency group OR = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.20–2.19. Specificity: increased risk for glioma was in the temporal lobe. Using meningioma cases as comparison group still increased the risk. Temporality: highest risk was in the 20+ years’ latency group, OR = 2.01, 95% CI =1.41–2.88, for wireless phones. Biological gradient: cumulative use of wireless phones increased the risk. Plausibility: animal studies showed an increased incidence of glioma and malignant schwannoma in rats exposed to radiofrequency (RF radiation. There is increased production of reactive oxygen species (ROS from RF radiation. Coherence: there is a change in the natural history of glioma and increasing incidence. Experiment: antioxidants reduced ROS production from RF radiation. Analogy: there is an increased risk in subjects exposed to extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields. Conclusion. RF radiation should be regarded as a human carcinogen causing glioma.
Evaluation of the productive performance characteristics of red ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Evaluation of the productive performance characteristics of red tilapia ( Oreochromis sp.) injected with shark DNA into skeletal muscles and maintained diets containing different levels of probiotic and amino yeast.
Site-level evaluation of satellite-based global terrestrial gross primary production and net primary production monitoring.

Science.gov (United States)

David P. Turner; William D. Ritts; Warren B. Cohen; Thomas K. Maeirsperger; Stith T. Gower; Al A. Kirschbaum; Steve W. Runnings; Maosheng Zhaos; Steven C. Wofsy; Allison L. Dunn; Beverly E. Law; John L. Campbell; Walter C. Oechel; Hyo Jung Kwon; Tilden P. Meyers; Eric E. Small; Shirley A. Kurc; John A. Gamon

2005-01-01

Operational monitoring of global terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP) is now underway using imagery from the satellite-borne Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. Evaluation of MODIS GPP and NPP products will require site-level studies across a range of biomes, with close attention to numerous scaling...
How TK-TD and population models for aquatic macrophytes could support the risk assessment for plant protection products.

Science.gov (United States)

Hommen, Udo; Schmitt, Walter; Heine, Simon; Brock, Theo Cm; Duquesne, Sabine; Manson, Phil; Meregalli, Giovanna; Ochoa-Acuña, Hugo; van Vliet, Peter; Arts, Gertie

2016-01-01

This case study of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) workshop MODELINK demonstrates the potential use of mechanistic effects models for macrophytes to extrapolate from effects of a plant protection product observed in laboratory tests to effects resulting from dynamic exposure on macrophyte populations in edge-of-field water bodies. A standard European Union (EU) risk assessment for an example herbicide based on macrophyte laboratory tests indicated risks for several exposure scenarios. Three of these scenarios are further analyzed using effect models for 2 aquatic macrophytes, the free-floating standard test species Lemna sp., and the sediment-rooted submerged additional standard test species Myriophyllum spicatum. Both models include a toxicokinetic (TK) part, describing uptake and elimination of the toxicant, a toxicodynamic (TD) part, describing the internal concentration-response function for growth inhibition, and a description of biomass growth as a function of environmental factors to allow simulating seasonal dynamics. The TK-TD models are calibrated and tested using laboratory tests, whereas the growth models were assumed to be fit for purpose based on comparisons of predictions with typical growth patterns observed in the field. For the risk assessment, biomass dynamics are predicted for the control situation and for several exposure levels. Based on specific protection goals for macrophytes, preliminary example decision criteria are suggested for evaluating the model outputs. The models refined the risk indicated by lower tier testing for 2 exposure scenarios, while confirming the risk associated for the third. Uncertainties related to the experimental and the modeling approaches and their application in the risk assessment are discussed. Based on this case study and the assumption that the models prove suitable for risk assessment once fully evaluated, we recommend that 1) ecological scenarios be developed that are also
The Use of Analytic Network Process for Risk Assessment in Production of Renewable Energy from Agriculture Biomass in Latvia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandija Rivza

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is an important factor for successful and sustainable entrepreneurship of bioenergy production that has become one of the priorities in energy sector of Latvia. Promotion of the use of renewable energy is included as one of the strategic goals for European Union (EU and Latvia. As this field of energy production in Latvia is rather new and scantily explored there are many risk factors arising in different stages of production, starting with planning and building of a bioreactor and ending with production and further use and distribution of energy. The present research focuses on risk assessment in renewable energy production form biomass as this kind of energy is seen as a perspective source for renewable energy under the conditions of Latvia. A risk assessment module for renewable energy production made by using the Analytic Network Process (ANP software is described in the paper.
Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brower, M.C. [Brower & Company, Andover, MA (United States); Bell, K. [Convergence Research, Seattle, WA (United States); Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M. [Tellus Inst., Boston, MA (United States); Spinney P. [Charles River Associates, Boston, MA (United States)

1996-12-31

This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

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