Improved Estimates of Thermodynamic Parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Lawson, D. D.

1982-01-01

Techniques refined for estimating heat of vaporization and other parameters from molecular structure. Using parabolic equation with three adjustable parameters, heat of vaporization can be used to estimate boiling point, and vice versa. Boiling points and vapor pressures for some nonpolar liquids were estimated by improved method and compared with previously reported values. Technique for estimating thermodynamic parameters should make it easier for engineers to choose among candidate heat-exchange fluids for thermochemical cycles.

Air Space Proportion in Pterosaur Limb Bones Using Computed Tomography and Its Implications for Previous Estimates of Pneumaticity

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Elizabeth G.; Palmer, Colin

2014-01-01

Air Space Proportion (ASP) is a measure of how much air is present within a bone, which allows for a quantifiable comparison of pneumaticity between specimens and species. Measured from zero to one, higher ASP means more air and less bone. Conventionally, it is estimated from measurements of the internal and external bone diameter, or by analyzing cross-sections. To date, the only pterosaur ASP study has been carried out by visual inspection of sectioned bones within matrix. Here, computed tomography (CT) scans are used to calculate ASP in a small sample of pterosaur wing bones (mainly phalanges) and to assess how the values change throughout the bone. These results show higher ASPs than previous pterosaur pneumaticity studies, and more significantly, higher ASP values in the heads of wing bones than the shaft. This suggests that pneumaticity has been underestimated previously in pterosaurs, birds, and other archosaurs when shaft cross-sections are used to estimate ASP. Furthermore, ASP in pterosaurs is higher than those found in birds and most sauropod dinosaurs, giving them among the highest ASP values of animals studied so far, supporting the view that pterosaurs were some of the most pneumatized animals to have lived. The high degree of pneumaticity found in pterosaurs is proposed to be a response to the wing bone bending stiffness requirements of flight rather than a means to reduce mass, as is often suggested. Mass reduction may be a secondary result of pneumaticity that subsequently aids flight. PMID:24817312

Improved diagnostic model for estimating wind energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Endlich, R.M.; Lee, J.D.

1983-03-01

Because wind data are available only at scattered locations, a quantitative method is needed to estimate the wind resource at specific sites where wind energy generation may be economically feasible. This report describes a computer model that makes such estimates. The model uses standard weather reports and terrain heights in deriving wind estimates; the method of computation has been changed from what has been used previously. The performance of the current model is compared with that of the earlier version at three sites; estimates of wind energy at four new sites are also presented.

[Estimating non work-related sickness leave absences related to a previous occupational injury in Catalonia (Spain)].

Science.gov (United States)

Molinero-Ruiz, Emilia; Navarro, Albert; Moriña, David; Albertí-Casas, Constança; Jardí-Lliberia, Josefina; de Montserrat-Nonó, Jaume

2015-01-01

To estimate the frequency of non-work sickness absence (ITcc) related to previous occupational injuries with (ATB) or without (ATSB) sick leave. Prospective longitudinal study. Workers with ATB or ATSB notified to the Occupational Accident Registry of Catalonia were selected in the last term of 2009. They were followed-up for six months after returning to work (ATB) or after the accident (ATSB), by sex and occupation. Official labor and health authority registries were used as information sources. An "injury-associated ITcc" was defined when the sick leave occurred in the following six months and within the same diagnosis group. The absolute and relative frequency were calculated according to time elapsed and its duration (cumulated days, measures of central trend and dispersion), by diagnosis group or affected body area, as compared to all of Catalonia. 2,9%of ATB (n=627) had an injury-associated ITcc, with differences by diagnosis, sex and occupation; this was also the case for 2,1% of ATSB (n=496).With the same diagnosis, duration of ITcc was longer among those who had an associated injury, and with respect to all of Catalonia. Some of the under-reporting of occupational pathology corresponds to episodes initially recognized as being work-related. Duration of sickness absence depends not only on diagnosis and clinical course, but also on criteria established by the entities managing the case. This could imply that more complicated injuries are referred to the national health system, resulting in personal, legal, healthcare and economic cost consequences for all involved stakeholders. Copyright belongs to the Societat Catalana de Salut Laboral.

Estimation of Total Error in DWPF Reported Radionuclide Inventories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, T.B.

1995-01-01

This report investigates the impact of random errors due to measurement and sampling on the reported concentrations of radionuclides in DWPF's filled canister inventory resulting from each macro-batch. The objective of this investigation is to estimate the variance of the total error in reporting these radionuclide concentrations

Estimation of Resting Energy Expenditure: Validation of Previous and New Predictive Equations in Obese Children and Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Acar-Tek, Nilüfer; Ağagündüz, Duygu; Çelik, Bülent; Bozbulut, Rukiye

2017-08-01

Accurate estimation of resting energy expenditure (REE) in childrenand adolescents is important to establish estimated energy requirements. The aim of the present study was to measure REE in obese children and adolescents by indirect calorimetry method, compare these values with REE values estimated by equations, and develop the most appropriate equation for this group. One hundred and three obese children and adolescents (57 males, 46 females) between 7 and 17 years (10.6 ± 2.19 years) were recruited for the study. REE measurements of subjects were made with indirect calorimetry (COSMED, FitMatePro, Rome, Italy) and body compositions were analyzed. In females, the percentage of accurate prediction varied from 32.6 (World Health Organization [WHO]) to 43.5 (Molnar and Lazzer). The bias for equations was -0.2% (Kim), 3.7% (Molnar), and 22.6% (Derumeaux-Burel). Kim's (266 kcal/d), Schmelzle's (267 kcal/d), and Henry's equations (268 kcal/d) had the lowest root mean square error (RMSE; respectively 266, 267, 268 kcal/d). The equation that has the highest RMSE values among female subjects was the Derumeaux-Burel equation (394 kcal/d). In males, when the Institute of Medicine (IOM) had the lowest accurate prediction value (12.3%), the highest values were found using Schmelzle's (42.1%), Henry's (43.9%), and Müller's equations (fat-free mass, FFM; 45.6%). When Kim and Müller had the smallest bias (-0.6%, 9.9%), Schmelzle's equation had the smallest RMSE (331 kcal/d). The new specific equation based on FFM was generated as follows: REE = 451.722 + (23.202 * FFM). According to Bland-Altman plots, it has been found out that the new equations are distributed randomly in both males and females. Previously developed predictive equations mostly provided unaccurate and biased estimates of REE. However, the new predictive equations allow clinicians to estimate REE in an obese children and adolescents with sufficient and acceptable accuracy.

Beyond Self-Report: Tools to Compare Estimated and Real-World Smartphone Use

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, Sally; Ellis, David A.; Shaw, Heather; Piwek, Lukasz

2015-01-01

Psychologists typically rely on self-report data when quantifying mobile phone usage, despite little evidence of its validity. In this paper we explore the accuracy of using self-reported estimates when compared with actual smartphone use. We also include source code to process and visualise these data. We compared 23 participants’ actual smartphone use over a two-week period with self-reported estimates and the Mobile Phone Problem Use Scale. Our results indicate that estimated time spent using a smartphone may be an adequate measure of use, unless a greater resolution of data are required. Estimates concerning the number of times an individual used their phone across a typical day did not correlate with actual smartphone use. Neither estimated duration nor number of uses correlated with the Mobile Phone Problem Use Scale. We conclude that estimated smartphone use should be interpreted with caution in psychological research. PMID:26509895

New population-based exome data question the pathogenicity of some genetic variants previously associated with Marfan syndrome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yang, Ren-Qiang; Jabbari, Javad; Cheng, Xiao-Shu

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Marfan syndrome (MFS) is a rare autosomal dominantly inherited connective tissue disorder with an estimated prevalence of 1:5,000. More than 1000 variants have been previously reported to be associated with MFS. However, the disease-causing effect of these variants may be questionable...

Generating human reliability estimates using expert judgment. Volume 1. Main report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Comer, M.K.; Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.; Gaddy, C.D.

1984-11-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is conducting a research program to determine the practicality, acceptability, and usefulness of several different methods for obtaining human reliability data and estimates that can be used in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). One method, investigated as part of this overall research program, uses expert judgment to generate human error probability (HEP) estimates and associated uncertainty bounds. The project described in this document evaluated two techniques for using expert judgment: paired comparisons and direct numerical estimation. Volume 1 of this report provides a brief overview of the background of the project, the procedure for using psychological scaling techniques to generate HEP estimates and conclusions from evaluation of the techniques. Results of the evaluation indicate that techniques using expert judgment should be given strong consideration for use in developing HEP estimates. In addition, HEP estimates for 35 tasks related to boiling water reactors (BMRs) were obtained as part of the evaluation. These HEP estimates are also included in the report

Support to LANL: Cost estimation. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

This report summarizes the activities and progress by ICF Kaiser Engineers conducted on behalf of Los Alamos National Laboratories (LANL) for the US Department of Energy, Office of Waste Management (EM-33) in the area of improving methods for Cost Estimation. This work was conducted between October 1, 1992 and September 30, 1993. ICF Kaiser Engineers supported LANL in providing the Office of Waste Management with planning and document preparation services for a Cost and Schedule Estimating Guide (Guide). The intent of the Guide was to use Activity-Based Cost (ABC) estimation as a basic method in preparing cost estimates for DOE planning and budgeting documents, including Activity Data Sheets (ADSs), which form the basis for the Five Year Plan document. Prior to the initiation of the present contract with LANL, ICF Kaiser Engineers was tasked to initiate planning efforts directed toward a Guide. This work, accomplished from June to September, 1992, included visits to eight DOE field offices and consultation with DOE Headquarters staff to determine the need for a Guide, the desired contents of a Guide, and the types of ABC estimation methods and documentation requirements that would be compatible with current or potential practices and expertise in existence at DOE field offices and their contractors

Self-learning estimation of quantum states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hannemann, Th.; Reiss, D.; Balzer, Ch.; Neuhauser, W.; Toschek, P.E.; Wunderlich, Ch.

2002-01-01

We report the experimental estimation of arbitrary qubit states using a succession of N measurements on individual qubits, where the measurement basis is changed during the estimation procedure conditioned on the outcome of previous measurements (self-learning estimation). Two hyperfine states of a single trapped 171 Yb + ion serve as a qubit. It is demonstrated that the difference in fidelity between this adaptive strategy and passive strategies increases in the presence of decoherence

Survival Estimates for the Passage of Spring-Migrating Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2001-2002 Annual Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zabel, Richard; Williams, John G.; Smith, Steven G. (Northwest and Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Fish Ecology Division, Seattle, WA)

2002-06-01

In 2001, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the ninth year of a study to estimate survival and travel time of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. All estimates were derived from passive integrated transponder (PIT)-tagged fish. We PIT tagged and released at Lower Granite Dam a total of 17,028 hatchery and 3,550 wild steelhead. In addition, we utilized fish PIT tagged by other agencies at traps and hatcheries upstream of the hydropower system and sites within the hydropower system. PIT-tagged smolts were detected at interrogation facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams and in the PIT-tag detector trawl operated in the Columbia River estuary. Survival estimates were calculated using the Single-Release Model. Primary research objectives in 2001 were to: (1) estimate reach and project survival and travel time in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the yearling chinook salmon and steelhead migrations; (2) evaluate relationships between survival estimates and migration conditions; and (3) evaluate the survival-estimation models under prevailing conditions. This report provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 2001 for PIT-tagged yearling chinook salmon and steelhead (hatchery and wild) in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Results are reported primarily in the form of tables and figures with a minimum of text. More details on methodology and statistical models used are provided in previous reports cited in the text. Results for summer-migrating chinook salmon will be reported separately.

State energy data report 1996: Consumption estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1999-02-01

The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sectors. The estimates are developed in the Combined State Energy Data System (CSEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining CSEDS is to create historical time series of energy consumption by State that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. CSEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models. To the degree possible, energy consumption has been assigned to five sectors: residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric utility sectors. Fuels covered are coal, natural gas, petroleum, nuclear electric power, hydroelectric power, biomass, and other, defined as electric power generated from geothermal, wind, photovoltaic, and solar thermal energy. 322 tabs.

State energy data report 1996: Consumption estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-02-01

The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sectors. The estimates are developed in the Combined State Energy Data System (CSEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining CSEDS is to create historical time series of energy consumption by State that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. CSEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA's energy models. To the degree possible, energy consumption has been assigned to five sectors: residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric utility sectors. Fuels covered are coal, natural gas, petroleum, nuclear electric power, hydroelectric power, biomass, and other, defined as electric power generated from geothermal, wind, photovoltaic, and solar thermal energy. 322 tabs

Eikenella corrodens endocarditis and liver abscess in a previously healthy male, a case report

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nordholm, Anne Christine; Vøgg, Ruth Ottilia Birgitta; Permin, Henrik

2018-01-01

BACKGROUND: Eikenella corrodens is one of the HACEK bacteria constituting part of the normal flora of the oropharynx, however, still an uncommon pathogen. We report a case of a large Eikenella corrodens liver abscess with simultaneously endocarditis in a previously healthy male. CASE PRESENTATION...... on pneumonia treatment, a PET-CT scan was performed, which showed a large multiloculated abscess in the liver. The abscess was drained using ultrasound guidance. Culture demonstrated Eikenella corrodens. Transesophageal echocardiography revealed aortic endocarditis. The patient was treated with antibiotics...... corrodens concurrent liver abscess and endocarditis. The case report highlights that Eikenella corrodens should be considered as a cause of liver abscess. Empirical treatment of pyogenic liver abscess will most often cover Eikenella corrodens, but the recommended treatment is a third generation...

Estimation of total error in DWPF reported radionuclide inventories. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, T.B.

1995-01-01

The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) at the Savannah River Site is required to determine and report the radionuclide inventory of its glass product. For each macro-batch, the DWPF will report both the total amount (in curies) of each reportable radionuclide and the average concentration (in curies/gram of glass) of each reportable radionuclide. The DWPF is to provide the estimated error of these reported values of its radionuclide inventory as well. The objective of this document is to provide a framework for determining the estimated error in DWPF's reporting of these radionuclide inventories. This report investigates the impact of random errors due to measurement and sampling on the total amount of each reportable radionuclide in a given macro-batch. In addition, the impact of these measurement and sampling errors and process variation are evaluated to determine the uncertainty in the reported average concentrations of radionuclides in DWPF's filled canister inventory resulting from each macro-batch

Manual estimation of fallout casualties. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gant, K.S.; Haaland, C.M.

1978-08-01

A method is described for enabling Emergency Operating Centers (EOCs) to estimate nuclear fallout casualties (fatalities and injuries) during and after nuclear attack without the aid of computers. This method is compatible with the current manual method for estimating initial weapons effects. The new technique requires that the EOCs have information on nuclear detonations and upper wind conditions and that they have maps, a protractor, map overlay material, grease pencils, worksheets, and pencils. In addition, they will need two tables of data and a fallout casualty (FC) template, all supplied in this report. Five steps are involved in the estimation of fallout casualties for an area: sketching fallout wind streamlines on a map overlay; plotting locations of nuclear detonations and their fallout streamlines; measuring crosswind and upwind distances to detonation points from the point of interest; reading radiation exposure tables and summing the contributions from different weapons to obtain the exposure at that point; and using the FC template with the protection factor profile for the area to estimate fatalities and injuries. The tables of radiation exposure are based on a modified Weapons Systems Evaluation Group-10 (WSEG-10) fallout model. The table of county protection factor profiles (PFPs) assumes a Community Shelter Plan (CSP) posture

[Estimating child mortality using the previous child technique, with data from health centers and household surveys: methodological aspects].

Science.gov (United States)

Aguirre, A; Hill, A G

1988-01-01

2 trials of the previous child or preceding birth technique in Bamako, Mali, and Lima, Peru, gave very promising results for measurement of infant and early child mortality using data on survivorship of the 2 most recent births. In the Peruvian study, another technique was tested in which each woman was asked about her last 3 births. The preceding birth technique described by Brass and Macrae has rapidly been adopted as a simple means of estimating recent trends in early childhood mortality. The questions formulated and the analysis of results are direct when the mothers are visited at the time of birth or soon after. Several technical aspects of the method believed to introduce unforeseen biases have now been studied and found to be relatively unimportant. But the problems arising when the data come from a nonrepresentative fraction of the total fertile-aged population have not been resolved. The analysis based on data from 5 maternity centers including 1 hospital in Bamako, Mali, indicated some practical problems and the information obtained showed the kinds of subtle biases that can result from the effects of selection. The study in Lima tested 2 abbreviated methods for obtaining recent early childhood mortality estimates in countries with deficient vital registration. The basic idea was that a few simple questions added to household surveys on immunization or diarrheal disease control for example could produce improved child mortality estimates. The mortality estimates in Peru were based on 2 distinct sources of information in the questionnaire. All women were asked their total number of live born children and the number still alive at the time of the interview. The proportion of deaths was converted into a measure of child survival using a life table. Then each woman was asked for a brief history of the 3 most recent live births. Dates of birth and death were noted in month and year of occurrence. The interviews took only slightly longer than the basic survey

Erysipelothrix endocarditis with previous cutaneous lesion: report of a case and review of the literature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marion P. Rocha

1989-08-01

Full Text Available This report describes the first documented case of Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae endocarditis in Latin America. The patient was a 51-years-old male, moderate alcoholic, with a previous history of aortic failure. He was used to fishing and cooking as a hobby and had his left hand wounded by a fish-bone. The disease began with erysipeloid form and developed to septicemia and endocarditis. He was treated with antibiotics and surgery for aortic valve replacement. There are only 46 cases of E. rhusiopathiae endocarditis reported to date. The authors wonder if several other cases might go unreported for lack of microbiological laboratorial diagnosis.

Psychotropic medication in the French child and adolescent population: prevalence estimation from health insurance data and national self-report survey data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Legleye Stéphane

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this work is to estimate the French frequencies of dispensed psychotropic prescriptions in children and adolescents. Prevalence estimations of dispensed prescriptions are compared to the frequencies of use of psychotropic reported by 17 year-old adolescents. Methods Prescription data is derived from national health insurance databases. Frequencies of dispensed prescriptions are extrapolated to estimate a range for the 2004 national rates. Self-report data is derived from the 2003 and 2005 ESCAPAD study, an epidemiological study based on a questionnaire focused on health and drug consumption. Results The prevalence estimation shows that the prevalence of prescription of a psychotropic medication to young persons between 3 and 18 years is about 2.2%. In 2005, the self-report study (ESCAPAD shows that 14.9% of 17 year-old adolescents took medication for "nerves" or "to sleep" during the previous 12 months. The same study in 2003 also shows that 62.3% of adolescents aged 17 and 18 reporting psychotropic use, took the medication for anxiety and 56.8% to sleep. Only 49.7% of these medications are suggested by a doctor. Conclusion This study underlines a similar range of prevalence of psychotropic prescriptions in France to that observed in other European countries. Nevertheless, the proportion of antipsychotics and benzodiazepines seems to be higher, whereas the proportion of methylphenidate is lower. Secondly, a disparity between the prevalence of dispensed prescriptions and the self-report of actual use of psychotropics has been highlighted by the ESCAPAD study which shows that these treatments are widely used as "self-medication".

Lack of Cetuximab induced skin toxicity in a previously irradiated field: case report and review of the literature

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

Introduction Mutation, amplification or dysregulation of the EGFR family leads to uncontrolled division and predisposes to cancer. Inhibiting the EGFR represents a form of targeted cancer therapy. Case report We report the case of 79 year old gentlemen with a history of skin cancer involving the left ear who had radiation and surgical excision. He had presented with recurrent lymph node in the left upper neck. We treated him with radiation therapy concurrently with Cetuximab. He developed a skin rash over the face and neck area two weeks after starting Cetuximab, which however spared the previously irradiated area. Conclusion The etiology underlying the sparing of the previously irradiated skin maybe due to either decrease in the population of EGFR expressing cells or decrease in the EGFR expression. We raised the question that "Is it justifiable to use EGFR inhibitors for patients having recurrence in the previously irradiated field?" We may need further research to answer this question which may guide the physicians in choosing appropriate drug in this scenario. PMID:20478052

Leiomyosarcoma of the Prostate: Case Report and Review of 54 Previously Published Cases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gerasimos P. Vandoros

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Prostate leiomyosarcoma is an extremely rare and highly aggressive neoplasm that accounts for less than 0.1% of primary prostate malignancies. We present a patient with primary leiomyosarcoma of the prostate and review 54 cases reported in the literature to discuss the clinical, diagnostic and therapeutic aspects of this uncommon tumor. Median survival was estimated at 17 months (95% C.I. 20.7–43.7 months and the 1-, 3-, and 5-year actuarial survival rates were 68%, 34%, and 26%, respectively. The only factors predictive of long-term survival were negative surgical margins and absence of metastatic disease at presentation. A multidisciplinary approach is necessary for appropriate management of this dire entity.

Photogrammetry and Laser Imagery Tests for Tank Waste Volume Estimates: Summary Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Field, Jim G. [Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC, Richland, WA (United States)

2013-03-27

Feasibility tests were conducted using photogrammetry and laser technologies to estimate the volume of waste in a tank. These technologies were compared with video Camera/CAD Modeling System (CCMS) estimates; the current method used for post-retrieval waste volume estimates. This report summarizes test results and presents recommendations for further development and deployment of technologies to provide more accurate and faster waste volume estimates in support of tank retrieval and closure.

Photogrammetry and Laser Imagery Tests for Tank Waste Volume Estimates: Summary Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Field, Jim G.

2013-01-01

Feasibility tests were conducted using photogrammetry and laser technologies to estimate the volume of waste in a tank. These technologies were compared with video Camera/CAD Modeling System (CCMS) estimates; the current method used for post-retrieval waste volume estimates. This report summarizes test results and presents recommendations for further development and deployment of technologies to provide more accurate and faster waste volume estimates in support of tank retrieval and closure

Accuracy of Herdsmen Reporting versus Serologic Testing for Estimating Foot-and-Mouth Disease Prevalence

Science.gov (United States)

Handel, Ian G.; Tanya, Vincent N.; Hamman, Saidou M.; Nfon, Charles; Bergman, Ingrid E.; Malirat, Viviana; Sorensen, Karl J.; Bronsvoort, Barend M. de C.

2014-01-01

Herdsman-reported disease prevalence is widely used in veterinary epidemiologic studies, especially for diseases with visible external lesions; however, the accuracy of such reports is rarely validated. Thus, we used latent class analysis in a Bayesian framework to compare sensitivity and specificity of herdsman reporting with virus neutralization testing and use of 3 nonstructural protein ELISAs for estimates of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) prevalence on the Adamawa plateau of Cameroon in 2000. Herdsman-reported estimates in this FMD-endemic area were comparable to those obtained from serologic testing. To harness to this cost-effective resource of monitoring emerging infectious diseases, we suggest that estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of herdsmen reporting should be done in parallel with serologic surveys of other animal diseases. PMID:25417556

The Affordable Care Act, Insurance Coverage, and Health Care Utilization of Previously Incarcerated Young Men: 2008-2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Winkelman, Tyler N A; Choi, HwaJung; Davis, Matthew M

2017-05-01

To estimate health insurance and health care utilization patterns among previously incarcerated men following implementation of the Affordable Care Act's (ACA's) Medicaid expansion and Marketplace plans in 2014. We performed serial cross-sectional analyses using data from the National Survey of Family Growth between 2008 and 2015. Our sample included men aged 18 to 44 years with (n = 3476) and without (n = 8702) a history of incarceration. Uninsurance declined significantly among previously incarcerated men after ACA implementation (-5.9 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -11.5, -0.4), primarily because of an increase in private insurance (6.8 percentage points; 95% CI = 0.1, 13.3). Previously incarcerated men accounted for a large proportion of the remaining uninsured (38.6%) in 2014 to 2015. Following ACA implementation, previously incarcerated men continued to be significantly less likely to report a regular source of primary care and more likely to report emergency department use than were never-incarcerated peers. Health insurance coverage improved among previously incarcerated men following ACA implementation. However, these men account for a substantial proportion of the remaining uninsured. Previously incarcerated men continue to lack primary care and frequently utilize acute care services.

Adenylosuccinate lyase (ADSL) and infantile autism: Absence of previously reported point mutation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fon, E.A.; Sarrazin, J.; Rouleau, G.A. [Montreal General Hospital (Canada)] [and others

1995-12-18

Autism is a heterogeneous neuropsychiatric syndrome of unknown etiology. There is evidence that a deficiency in the enzyme adenylosuccinate lyase (ADSL), essential for de novo purine biosynthesis, could be involved in the pathogenesis of certain cases. A point mutation in the ADSL gene, resulting in a predicted serine-to-proline substitution and conferring structural instability to the mutant enzyme, has been reported previously in 3 affected siblings. In order to determine the prevalence of the mutation, we PCR-amplified the exon spanning the site of this mutation from the genomic DNA of patients fulfilling DSM-III-R criteria for autistic disorder. None of the 119 patients tested were found to have this mutation. Furthermore, on preliminary screening using single-strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP), no novel mutations were detected in the coding sequence of four ADSL exons, spanning approximately 50% of the cDNA. In light of these findings, it appears that mutations in the ADSL gene represent a distinctly uncommon cause of autism. 12 refs., 2 figs.

AX Tank Farm waste retrieval alternatives cost estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krieg, S.A.

1998-01-01

This report presents the estimated costs associated with retrieval of the wastes from the four tanks in AX Tank Farm. The engineering cost estimates developed for this report are based on previous cost data prepared for Project W-320 and the HTI 241-C-106 Heel Retrieval System. The costs presented in this report address only the retrieval of the wastes from the four AX Farm tanks. This includes costs for equipment procurement, fabrication, installation, and operation to retrieve the wastes. The costs to modify the existing plant equipment and systems to support the retrieval equipment are also included. The estimates do not include operational costs associated with pumping the waste out of the waste receiver tank (241-AY-102) between AX Farm retrieval campaigns or transportation, processing, and disposal of the retrieved waste

Mortality estimate of Chinese mystery snail, Bellamya chinensis (Reeve, 1863) in a Nebraska reservoir

Science.gov (United States)

Haak, Danielle M.; Chaine, Noelle M.; Stephen, Bruce J.; Wong, Alec; Allen, Craig R.

2013-01-01

The Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis) is an aquatic invasive species found throughout the USA. Little is known about this species’ life history or ecology, and only one population estimate has been published, for Wild Plum Lake in southeast Nebraska. A recent die-off event occurred at this same reservoir and we present a mortality estimate for this B. chinensis population using a quadrat approach. Assuming uniform distribution throughout the newly-exposed lake bed (20,900 m2), we estimate 42,845 individuals died during this event, amounting to approximately 17% of the previously-estimated population size of 253,570. Assuming uniform distribution throughout all previously-reported available habitat (48,525 m2), we estimate 99,476 individuals died, comprising 39% of the previously-reported adult population. The die-off occurred during an extreme drought event, which was coincident with abnormally hot weather. However, the exact reason of the die-off is still unclear. More monitoring of the population dynamics of B. chinensis is necessary to further our understanding of this species’ ecology.

REVIEW OF DRAFT REVISED BLUE BOOK ON ESTIMATING CANCER RISKS FROM EXPOSURE TO IONIZING RADIATION

Science.gov (United States)

In 1994, EPA published a report, referred to as the “Blue Book,” which lays out EPA’s current methodology for quantitatively estimating radiogenic cancer risks. A follow-on report made minor adjustments to the previous estimates and presented a partial analysis of the uncertainti...

Stevens-Johnson Syndrome Induced by Carbamazepine Treatment in a Patient Who Previously Had Carbamazepine Induced Pruritus - A Case Report -

OpenAIRE

Bae, Hyun Min; Park, Yoo Jung; Kim, Young Hoon; Moon, Dong Eon

2013-01-01

Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS) is a rare but life-threatening skin reaction disease and carbamazepine is one of its most common causes. We report a case of SJS secondary to carbamazepine in a patient with previous pruritus due to carbamazepine which was given for treatment of trigeminal neuralgia. We would like to caution all providers that carbamazepine readministration should be avoided in the patient with a previous history of SJS or adverse skin reaction. In addition, we strongly recommen...

Final report on cost estimate of forward superconducting air core toroid

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fields, T.

1992-12-01

An independent cost-estimate for key components of the forward superconducting air core toroid (ACT) was obtained in May 1992 from an experienced manufacturer of large cryogenic vessels. This new cost estimate is summarized in this report. It implies that a suitably designed ACT may have a cost which is approximately equal to that of the presently designed SDC forward iron core toroid

Improved estimates of separation distances to prevent unacceptable damage to nuclear power plant structures from hydrogen detonation for gaseous hydrogen storage. Technical report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-05-01

This report provides new estimates of separation distances for nuclear power plant gaseous hydrogen storage facilities. Unacceptable damage to plant structures from hydrogen detonations will be prevented by having hydrogen storage facilities meet separation distance criteria recommended in this report. The revised standoff distances are based on improved calculations on hydrogen gas cloud detonations and structural analysis of reinforced concrete structures. Also, the results presented in this study do not depend upon equivalencing a hydrogen detonation to an equivalent TNT detonation. The static and stagnation pressures, wave velocity, and the shock wave impulse delivered to wall surfaces were computed for several different size hydrogen explosions. Separation distance equations were developed and were used to compute the minimum separation distance for six different wall cases and for seven detonating volumes (from 1.59 to 79.67 lbm of hydrogen). These improved calculation results were compared to previous calculations. The ratio between the separation distance predicted in this report versus that predicted for hydrogen detonation in previous calculations varies from 0 to approximately 4. Thus, the separation distances results from the previous calculations can be either overconservative or unconservative depending upon the set of hydrogen detonation parameters that are used. Consequently, it is concluded that the hydrogen-to-TNT detonation equivalency utilized in previous calculations should no longer be used

Do centimetres matter? Self-reported versus estimated height measurements in parents.

Science.gov (United States)

Gozzi, T; Flück, Ce; L'allemand, D; Dattani, M T; Hindmarsh, P C; Mullis, P E

2010-04-01

An impressive discrepancy between reported and measured parental height is often observed. The aims of this study were: (a) to assess whether there is a significant difference between the reported and measured parental height; (b) to focus on the reported and, thereafter, measured height of the partner; (c) to analyse its impact on the calculated target height range. A total of 1542 individual parents were enrolled. The parents were subdivided into three groups: normal height (3-97th Centile), short (97%) stature. Overall, compared with men, women were far better in estimating their own height (p Women of normal stature underestimated the short partner and overestimated the tall partner, whereas male partners of normal stature overestimated both their short as well as tall partners. Women of tall stature estimated the heights of their short partners correctly, whereas heights of normal statured men were underestimated. On the other hand, tall men overestimated the heights of their female partners who are of normal and short stature. Furthermore, women of short stature estimated the partners of normal stature adequately, and the heights of their tall partners were overestimated. Interestingly, the short men significantly underestimated the normal, but overestimated tall female partners. Only measured heights should be used to perform accurate evaluations of height, particularly when diagnostic tests or treatment interventions are contemplated. For clinical trails, we suggest that only quality measured parental heights are acceptable, as the errors incurred in estimates may enhance/conceal true treatment effects.

WILDFIRE IGNITION RESISTANCE ESTIMATOR WIZARD SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT REPORT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Phillips, M.; Robinson, C.; Gupta, N.; Werth, D.

2012-10-10

This report describes the development of a software tool, entitled “WildFire Ignition Resistance Estimator Wizard” (WildFIRE Wizard, Version 2.10). This software was developed within the Wildfire Ignition Resistant Home Design (WIRHD) program, sponsored by the U. S. Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate, Infrastructure Protection & Disaster Management Division. WildFIRE Wizard is a tool that enables homeowners to take preventive actions that will reduce their home’s vulnerability to wildfire ignition sources (i.e., embers, radiant heat, and direct flame impingement) well in advance of a wildfire event. This report describes the development of the software, its operation, its technical basis and calculations, and steps taken to verify its performance.

Cost estimation of thermal and nuclear power using annual securities report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuo, Yuji; Nagatomi, Yu; Murakami, Tomoko

2011-01-01

Cost estimation of generation cost derived from various power sources was widely conducted using model plant or annual securities report of electric utilities. Although annual securities report method was subjected to some limitation in methodology itself, useful information was obtained for cost comparison of thermal and nuclear power. Studies on generation cost evaluation of thermal and nuclear power based on this method during past five years showed that nuclear power cost was almost stable 7 Yen/kWh and thermal power cost was varying 9 - 12 Yen/kWh dependent on violent fluctuations of primary energy cost. Nuclear power was expected cost increase due to enhanced safety requirements or damage compensation of accidents as well as decommissioning and back-end cost, which were difficult to evaluate accurately with annual securities report. Further comprehensive and accurate cost estimation should be encouraged including these items. (T. Tanaka)

Addressing HCV infection in Europe: reported, estimated and undiagnosed cases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Merkinaite, Simona; Lazarus, Jeff; Gore, Charles

2008-01-01

. At present, it is the most common cause of chronic liver disease and liver transplantation in a number of countries, with an estimated 250,000 people dying annually from HCV-related causes. Despite the magnitude of the problem, the virus does not receive adequate attention from either the general public...... or from health policy-makers. This study assesses HCV prevalence from both estimated totals and undiagnosed cases in selected European countries. Secondary sources were assessed and experts in 17 European countries were interviewed about HCV prevalence, reporting strategies and transmission. Available...

Estimating inpatient hospital prices from state administrative data and hospital financial reports.

Science.gov (United States)

Levit, Katharine R; Friedman, Bernard; Wong, Herbert S

2013-10-01

To develop a tool for estimating hospital-specific inpatient prices for major payers. AHRQ Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases and complete hospital financial reporting of revenues mandated in 10 states for 2006. Hospital discharge records and hospital financial information were merged to estimate revenue per stay by payer. Estimated prices were validated against other data sources. Hospital prices can be reasonably estimated for 10 geographically diverse states. All-payer price-to-charge ratios, an intermediate step in estimating prices, compare favorably to cost-to-charge ratios. Estimated prices also compare well with Medicare, MarketScan private insurance, and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey prices for major payers, given limitations of each dataset. Public reporting of prices is a consumer resource in making decisions about health care treatment; for self-pay patients, they can provide leverage in negotiating discounts off of charges. Researchers can also use prices to increase understanding of the level and causes of price differentials among geographic areas. Prices by payer expand investigational tools available to study the interaction of inpatient hospital price setting among public and private payers--an important asset as the payer mix changes with the implementation of the Affordable Care Act. © Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Cost estimates for near-term depolyment of advanced traffic management systems. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stevens, S.S.; Chin, S.M.

1993-02-15

The objective of this study is to provide cost est engineering, design, installation, operation and maintenance of Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS) in the largest 75 metropolitan areas in the United States. This report gives estimates for deployment costs for ATMS in the next five years, subject to the qualifications and caveats set out in following paragraphs. The report considers infrastructure components required to realize fully a functional ATMS over each of two highway networks (as discussed in the Section describing our general assumptions) under each of the four architectures identified in the MITRE Intelligent Vehicle Highway Systems (IVHS) Architecture studies. The architectures are summarized in this report in Table 2. Estimates are given for eight combinations of highway networks and architectures. We estimate that it will cost between $8.5 Billion (minimal network) and $26 Billion (augmented network) to proceed immediately with deployment of ATMS in the largest 75 metropolitan areas. Costs are given in 1992 dollars, and are not adjusted for future inflation. Our estimates are based partially on completed project costs, which have been adjusted to 1992 dollars. We assume that a particular architecture will be chosen; projected costs are broken by architecture.

Reporting of HIV-infected pregnant women: estimates from a Brazilian study.

Science.gov (United States)

Domingues, Rosa Maria Soares Madeira; Saraceni, Valéria; Leal, Maria do Carmo

2018-01-01

To estimate the coverage of the reporting of cases of HIV-infected pregnant women, to estimate the increase in the coverage of the reporting with the routine search of data in other Brazilian health information systems, and to identify missed opportunities for identification of HIV-infected pregnant women in Brazilian maternity hospitals. This is a descriptive study on the linkage of Brazilian databases with primary data from the "Nascer no Brasil" study and secondary database collection from national health information systems. The "Nascer no Brasil" is a national-based study carried out in 2011-2012 with 23,894 pregnant women, which identified HIV-infected pregnant women using prenatal and medical records. We searched for cases of HIV-infected pregnant women identified in the "Nascer no Brasil" study in the Information System of Notifiable Diseases, the Control System for Laboratory Tests of the National CD4+/CD8+ Lymphocyte Count and HIV Viral Load Network, and the Logistics Control System for Medications. We used the OpenRecLink software for the linkage of databases. We estimated the notification coverage, with the respective confidence interval, of the evaluated Brazilian health information systems. We estimated the coverage of the reporting of HIV-infected pregnant women in the Information System of Notifiable Diseases as 57.1% (95%CI 42.9-70.2), and we located 89.3% of the HIV-infected pregnant women (95%CI 81.2-94.2) in some of the Brazilian health information systems researched. The search in other national health information systems would result in an increase of 57.1% of the reported cases. We identified no missed opportunities for the diagnosis of HIV+ in pregnant women in the maternity hospitals evaluated by the "Nascer no Brasil" study. The routine search for information in other Brazilian health information systems, a procedure carried out by the Ministry of Health for cases of AIDS in adults and children, should be adopted for cases of HIV in

A methodology for modeling photocatalytic reactors for indoor pollution control using previously estimated kinetic parameters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Passalia, Claudio; Alfano, Orlando M. [INTEC - Instituto de Desarrollo Tecnologico para la Industria Quimica, CONICET - UNL, Gueemes 3450, 3000 Santa Fe (Argentina); FICH - Departamento de Medio Ambiente, Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Ciudad Universitaria, 3000 Santa Fe (Argentina); Brandi, Rodolfo J., E-mail: rbrandi@santafe-conicet.gov.ar [INTEC - Instituto de Desarrollo Tecnologico para la Industria Quimica, CONICET - UNL, Gueemes 3450, 3000 Santa Fe (Argentina); FICH - Departamento de Medio Ambiente, Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias Hidricas, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Ciudad Universitaria, 3000 Santa Fe (Argentina)

2012-04-15

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Indoor pollution control via photocatalytic reactors. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Scaling-up methodology based on previously determined mechanistic kinetics. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Radiation interchange model between catalytic walls using configuration factors. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Modeling and experimental validation of a complex geometry photocatalytic reactor. - Abstract: A methodology for modeling photocatalytic reactors for their application in indoor air pollution control is carried out. The methodology implies, firstly, the determination of intrinsic reaction kinetics for the removal of formaldehyde. This is achieved by means of a simple geometry, continuous reactor operating under kinetic control regime and steady state. The kinetic parameters were estimated from experimental data by means of a nonlinear optimization algorithm. The second step was the application of the obtained kinetic parameters to a very different photoreactor configuration. In this case, the reactor is a corrugated wall type using nanosize TiO{sub 2} as catalyst irradiated by UV lamps that provided a spatially uniform radiation field. The radiative transfer within the reactor was modeled through a superficial emission model for the lamps, the ray tracing method and the computation of view factors. The velocity and concentration fields were evaluated by means of a commercial CFD tool (Fluent 12) where the radiation model was introduced externally. The results of the model were compared experimentally in a corrugated wall, bench scale reactor constructed in the laboratory. The overall pollutant conversion showed good agreement between model predictions and experiments, with a root mean square error less than 4%.

Estimating externalities of biomass fuel cycles, Report 7

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barnthouse, L.W.; Cada, G.F.; Cheng, M.-D.; Easterly, C.E.; Kroodsma, R.L.; Lee, R.; Shriner, D.S.; Tolbert, V.R.; Turner, R.S.

1998-01-01

This report documents the analysis of the biomass fuel cycle, in which biomass is combusted to produce electricity. The major objectives of this study were: (1) to implement the methodological concepts which were developed in the Background Document (ORNL/RFF 1992) as a means of estimating the external costs and benefits of fuel cycles, and by so doing, to demonstrate their application to the biomass fuel cycle; (2) to develop, given the time and resources, a range of estimates of marginal (i.e., the additional or incremental) damages and benefits associated with selected impact-pathways from a new wood-fired power plant, using a representative benchmark technology, at two reference sites in the US; and (3) to assess the state of the information available to support energy decision making and the estimation of externalities, and by so doing, to assist in identifying gaps in knowledge and in setting future research agendas. The demonstration of methods, modeling procedures, and use of scientific information was the most important objective of this study. It provides an illustrative example for those who will, in the future, undertake studies of actual energy options and sites. As in most studies, a more comprehensive analysis could have been completed had budget constraints not been as severe. Particularly affected were the air and water transport modeling, estimation of ecological impacts, and economic valuation. However, the most important objective of the study was to demonstrate methods, as a detailed example for future studies. Thus, having severe budget constraints was appropriate from the standpoint that these studies could also face similar constraints. Consequently, an important result of this study is an indication of what can be done in such studies, rather than the specific numerical estimates themselves.

Reported Energy and Cost Savings from the DOE ESPC Program: FY 2014

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Slattery, Bob S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2015-03-01

The objective of this work was to determine the realization rate of energy and cost savings from the Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) program based on information reported by the energy services companies (ESCOs) that are carrying out ESPC projects at federal sites. Information was extracted from 156 Measurement and Verification (M&V) reports to determine reported, estimated, and guaranteed cost savings and reported and estimated energy savings for the previous contract year. Because the quality of the reports varied, it was not possible to determine all of these parameters for each project. For all 156 projects, there was sufficient information to compare estimated, reported, and guaranteed cost savings. For this group, the total estimated cost savings for the reporting periods addressed were $210.6 million, total reported cost savings were $215.1 million, and total guaranteed cost savings were $204.5 million. This means that on average: ESPC contractors guaranteed 97% of the estimated cost savings; projects reported achieving 102% of the estimated cost savings; and projects reported achieving 105% of the guaranteed cost savings. For 155 of the projects examined, there was sufficient information to compare estimated and reported energy savings. On the basis of site energy, estimated savings for those projects for the previous year totaled 11.938 million MMBtu, and reported savings were 12.138 million MMBtu, 101.7% of the estimated energy savings. On the basis of source energy, total estimated energy savings for the 155 projects were 19.052 million MMBtu, and reported saving were 19.516 million MMBtu, 102.4% of the estimated energy savings.

Previously unreported abnormalities in Wolfram Syndrome Type 2.

Science.gov (United States)

Akturk, Halis Kaan; Yasa, Seda

2017-01-01

Wolfram syndrome (WFS) is a rare autosomal recessive disease with non-autoimmune childhood onset insulin dependent diabetes and optic atrophy. WFS type 2 (WFS2) differs from WFS type 1 (WFS1) with upper intestinal ulcers, bleeding tendency and the lack ofdiabetes insipidus. Li-fespan is short due to related comorbidities. Only a few familieshave been reported with this syndrome with the CISD2 mutation. Here we report two siblings with a clinical diagnosis of WFS2, previously misdiagnosed with type 1 diabetes mellitus and diabetic retinopathy-related blindness. We report possible additional clinical and laboratory findings that have not been pre-viously reported, such as asymptomatic hypoparathyroidism, osteomalacia, growth hormone (GH) deficiency and hepatomegaly. Even though not a requirement for the diagnosis of WFS2 currently, our case series confirm hypogonadotropic hypogonadism to be also a feature of this syndrome, as reported before. © Polish Society for Pediatric Endocrinology and Diabetology.

Estimation of under-reported visceral Leishmaniasis (Vl cases in Bihar: a Bayesian approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A Ranjan

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Background: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL is a major health problem in the state of Bihar and adjoining areas in India. In absence of any active surveillance mechanism for the disease, there seems to be gross under-reporting of VL cases. Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate extent of under-reporting of VL cases in Bihar using pooled analysis of published papers. Method: We calculated the pooled common ratio (RRMH based on three studies and combined it with a prior distribution of ratio using inverse-variance weighting method. Bayesian method was used to estimate the posterior distribution of the “under-reporting factor” (ratio of unreported to reported cases. Results: The posterior distribution of ratio of unreported to reported cases yielded a mean of 3.558, with 95% posterior limits of 2.81 and 4.50. Conclusion: Bayesian approach gives evidence to the fact that the total number of VL cases in the state may be nearly more than three times that of currently reported figures. 

Cash flows: The Gap Between Reported and Estimated Operating Cash Flow Elements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark Hughes

2010-03-01

Full Text Available The FASB and the IASB recently released a joint Discussion Paper “Preliminary Views on FinancialStatement Presentation” (International Accounting Standards Board 2008, which contains a major proposalrequiring companies to report operating cash flows using the direct method and it also requires that theindirect method of calculating operating cash flows be disclosed in the notes. This is a departure from currentrules and has generated considerable debate among respondents’ comment letters on the Discussion Paper.This paper adds to this debate by providing some evidence as to the size of the gap users confront when usingthe indirect method to estimate the major operating cash flow elements, such as cash collected fromcustomers and cash paid to suppliers. Using a sample of Australian companies which reported operating cashflows using the direct method, and presented the indirect method in the notes, we find significant differencesbetween reported and estimated figures for both cash collected from customers and cash paid to suppliers.These findings support the discussion paper’s proposal that companies be required to report cash flows usingboth the direct and indirect methods.

Estimating under-reporting of road crash injuries to police using multiple linked data collections.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Angela; Watson, Barry; Vallmuur, Kirsten

2015-10-01

The reliance on police data for the counting of road crash injuries can be problematic, as it is well known that not all road crash injuries are reported to police which under-estimates the overall burden of road crash injuries. The aim of this study was to use multiple linked data sources to estimate the extent of under-reporting of road crash injuries to police in the Australian state of Queensland. Data from the Queensland Road Crash Database (QRCD), the Queensland Hospital Admitted Patients Data Collection (QHAPDC), Emergency Department Information System (EDIS), and the Queensland Injury Surveillance Unit (QISU) for the year 2009 were linked. The completeness of road crash cases reported to police was examined via discordance rates between the police data (QRCD) and the hospital data collections. In addition, the potential bias of this discordance (under-reporting) was assessed based on gender, age, road user group, and regional location. Results showed that the level of under-reporting varied depending on the data set with which the police data was compared. When all hospital data collections are examined together the estimated population of road crash injuries was approximately 28,000, with around two-thirds not linking to any record in the police data. The results also showed that the under-reporting was more likely for motorcyclists, cyclists, males, young people, and injuries occurring in Remote and Inner Regional areas. These results have important implications for road safety research and policy in terms of: prioritising funding and resources; targeting road safety interventions into areas of higher risk; and estimating the burden of road crash injuries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

National Estimates of Recovery-Remission From Serious Mental Illness.

Science.gov (United States)

Salzer, Mark S; Brusilovskiy, Eugene; Townley, Greg

2018-05-01

A broad range of estimates of recovery among previously institutionalized persons has been reported, but no current, community-based national estimate of recovery from serious mental illness exists. This study reports recovery rate results, based on a remission definition, and explores related demographic factors. A national, geographically stratified, and random cross-sectional survey conducted from September 2014 to December 2015 resulted in responses from more than 41,000 individuals. Lifetime prevalence of serious mental illness was assessed by asking about receipt of a diagnosis (major depression, bipolar disorder, manic depression, and schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder) and hospitalization and impairment associated with the diagnosis. Recovery was determined by asking about impairments over the past 12 months. Almost 17% reported receiving one of the diagnoses in their lifetime, 6% had a lifetime rate of a serious mental illness, and nearly 4% continued to experience interference associated with serious mental illness. One-third of those with a lifetime serious mental illness reported having been in remission for at least the past 12 months. Recovery rates were low until age 32 and then progressively increased. Lifetime estimates of diagnosed illness and current prevalence of serious mental illness are consistent with previous research. Results indicate that recovery is possible and is associated with age. Further research is needed to understand factors that promote recovery, and sustained evaluation efforts using similar parsimonious approaches may be useful in conducting timely assessments of national and local mental health policies.

Non-sedating antihistamine drugs and cardiac arrhythmias -- biased risk estimates from spontaneous reporting systems?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

De Bruin, M L; van Puijenbroek, E P; Egberts, A C G

2002-01-01

AIMS: This study used spontaneous reports of adverse events to estimate the risk for developing cardiac arrhythmias due to the systemic use of non-sedating antihistamine drugs and compared the risk estimate before and after the regulatory action to recall the over-the-counter status of some...... of these drugs. METHODS: All suspected adverse drug reactions (ADRs) reported until July 1999 to the Netherlands Pharmacovigilance Foundation Lareb were used to calculate the ADR reporting odds ratio, defined as the ratio of exposure odds among reported arrhythmia cases, to the exposure odds of other ADRs (non......-sedating antihistamines. In general non-sedating antihistamines are associated with cardiac arrhythmia to a higher extent in comparison with other drugs (ADR reporting odds ratio 2.05 [95% CI: 1.45, 2.89]). The association between arrhythmias and non-sedating antihistamine drugs calculated before 1998...

Prevalence of estimated GFR reporting among US clinical laboratories.

Science.gov (United States)

Accetta, Nancy A; Gladstone, Elisa H; DiSogra, Charles; Wright, Elizabeth C; Briggs, Michael; Narva, Andrew S

2008-10-01

Routine laboratory reporting of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) may help clinicians detect kidney disease. The current national prevalence of eGFR reporting in clinical laboratories is unknown; thus, the extent of the situation of laboratories not routinely reporting eGFR with serum creatinine results is not quantified. Observational analysis. National Kidney Disease Education Program survey of clinical laboratories conducted in 2006 to 2007 by mail, web, and telephone follow-up. A national random sample, 6,350 clinical laboratories, drawn from the Federal Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments database and stratified by 6 major laboratory types/groupings. Laboratory reports serum creatinine results. Reporting eGFR values with serum creatinine results. Percentage of laboratories reporting eGFR along with reporting serum creatinine values, reporting protocol, eGFR formula used, and style of reporting cutoff values. Of laboratories reporting serum creatinine values, 38.4% report eGFR (physician offices, 25.8%; hospitals, 43.6%; independents, 38.9%; community clinics, 47.2%; health fair/insurance/public health, 45.5%; and others, 43.2%). Physician office laboratories have a reporting prevalence lower than other laboratory types (P laboratories reporting eGFR, 66.7% do so routinely with all adult serum creatinine determinations; 71.6% use the 4-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation; and 45.3% use the ">60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)" reporting convention. Independent laboratories are least likely to routinely report eGFR (50.6%; P laboratories across all strata are more likely to report eGFR (P laboratories, federal database did not have names of laboratory directors/managers (intended respondents), assumed accuracy of federal database for sample purposes. Routine eGFR reporting with serum creatinine values is not yet universal, and laboratories vary in their reporting practices.

Technical bases for estimating fission product behavior during LWR accidents. Technical report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1981-06-01

The objective of this report is to provide the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the public with a description of the best technical information currently available for estimating the release of radioactive material during postulated reactor accidents, and to identify where gaps exist in our knowledge. This report focuses on those low probability-high consequence accidents involving severe damage to the reactor core and core meltdown that dominate the risk to the public. Furthermore, in this report particular emphasis is placed on the accident behavior of radioactive iodine, as (1) radioiodine is predicted to be a major contributor to public exposure, (2) current regulatory accident analysis procedures focus on iodine, and (3) several technical issues have been raised recently about the magnitude of iodine release. The generation, transport, and attenuation of aerosols were also investigated in some detail to assess their effect on fission product release estimates and to determine the performance of engineered safety features under accident conditions exceeding their design bases

Solid Waste Operations Complex W-113: Project cost estimate. Preliminary design report. Volume IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

This document contains Volume IV of the Preliminary Design Report for the Solid Waste Operations Complex W-113 which is the Project Cost Estimate and construction schedule. The estimate was developed based upon Title 1 material take-offs, budgetary equipment quotes and Raytheon historical in-house data. The W-113 project cost estimate and project construction schedule were integrated together to provide a resource loaded project network

Response to health insurance by previously uninsured rural children.

Science.gov (United States)

Tilford, J M; Robbins, J M; Shema, S J; Farmer, F L

1999-08-01

To examine the healthcare utilization and costs of previously uninsured rural children. Four years of claims data from a school-based health insurance program located in the Mississippi Delta. All children who were not Medicaid-eligible or were uninsured, were eligible for limited benefits under the program. The 1987 National Medical Expenditure Survey (NMES) was used to compare utilization of services. The study represents a natural experiment in the provision of insurance benefits to a previously uninsured population. Premiums for the claims cost were set with little or no information on expected use of services. Claims from the insurer were used to form a panel data set. Mixed model logistic and linear regressions were estimated to determine the response to insurance for several categories of health services. The use of services increased over time and approached the level of utilization in the NMES. Conditional medical expenditures also increased over time. Actuarial estimates of claims cost greatly exceeded actual claims cost. The provision of a limited medical, dental, and optical benefit package cost approximately $20-$24 per member per month in claims paid. An important uncertainty in providing health insurance to previously uninsured populations is whether a pent-up demand exists for health services. Evidence of a pent-up demand for medical services was not supported in this study of rural school-age children. States considering partnerships with private insurers to implement the State Children's Health Insurance Program could lower premium costs by assembling basic data on previously uninsured children.

A correction factor for estimating statewide agricultural injuries from ambulance reports.

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, Erika E; Earle-Richardson, Giulia; Krupa, Nicole; Jenkins, Paul

2011-10-01

Agriculture ranks as one of the most hazardous industries in the nation. Agricultural injury surveillance is critical to identifying and reducing major injury hazards. Currently, there is no comprehensive system of identifying and characterizing fatal and serious non-fatal agricultural injuries. Researchers sought to calculate a multiplier for estimating the number of agricultural injury cases based on the number of times the farm box indicator was checked on the ambulance report. Farm injuries from 2007 that used ambulance transport were ascertained for 10 New York counties using two methods: (1) ambulance reports including hand-entered free text; and (2) community surveillance. The resulting multiplier that was developed from contrasting these two methods was then applied to the statewide Emergency Medical Services database to estimate the total number of agricultural injuries for New York state. There were 25,735 unique ambulance runs due to injuries in the 10 counties in 2007. Among these, the farm box was checked a total of 90 times. Of these 90, 63 (70%) were determined to be agricultural. Among injury runs where the farm box was not checked, an additional 59 cases were identified from the free text. Among these 122 cases (63 + 59), four were duplicates. Twenty-four additional unique cases were identified from the community surveillance for a total of 142. This yielded a multiplier of 142/90 = 1.578 for estimating all agricultural injuries from the farm box indicator. Sensitivity and specificity of the ambulance report method were 53.4% and 99.9%, respectively. This method provides a cost-effective way to estimate the total number of agricultural injuries for the state. However, it would not eliminate the more labor intensive methods that are required to identify of the actual individual case records. Incorporating an independent source of case ascertainment (community surveillance) increased the multiplier by 17%. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights

Supporting document for the Southeast Quadrant historical tank content estimate report for SY-tank farm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brevick, C.H.; Gaddis, L.A.; Consort, S.D.

1995-01-01

Historical Tank Content Estimate of the Southeast Quadrant provides historical evaluations on a tank by tank basis of the radioactive mixed wastes stored in the underground double-shell tanks of the Hanford 200 East and West Areas. This report summarizes historical information such as waste history, temperature profiles, psychrometric data, tank integrity, inventory estimates and tank level history on a tank by tank basis. Tank Farm aerial photos and in-tank photos of each tank are provided. A brief description of instrumentation methods used for waste tank surveillance are included. Components of the data management effort, such as Waste Status and Transaction Record Summary, Tank Layer Model, Supernatant Mixing Model, Defined Waste Types, and Inventory Estimates which generate these tank content estimates, are also given in this report

REDD+ emissions estimation and reporting: dealing with uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pelletier, Johanne; Potvin, Catherine; Martin, Davy

2013-01-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defined the technical and financial modalities of policy approaches and incentives to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+). Substantial technical challenges hinder precise and accurate estimation of forest-related emissions and removals, as well as the setting and assessment of reference levels. These challenges could limit country participation in REDD+, especially if REDD+ emission reductions were to meet quality standards required to serve as compliance grade offsets for developed countries’ emissions. Using Panama as a case study, we tested the matrix approach proposed by Bucki et al (2012 Environ. Res. Lett. 7 024005) to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analysis distinguishing between ‘modelling sources’ of uncertainty, which refers to model-specific parameters and assumptions, and ‘recurring sources’ of uncertainty, which refers to random and systematic errors in emission factors and activity data. The sensitivity analysis estimated differences in the resulting fluxes ranging from 4.2% to 262.2% of the reference emission level. The classification of fallows and the carbon stock increment or carbon accumulation of intact forest lands were the two key parameters showing the largest sensitivity. The highest error propagated using Monte Carlo simulations was caused by modelling sources of uncertainty, which calls for special attention to ensure consistency in REDD+ reporting which is essential for securing environmental integrity. Due to the role of these modelling sources of uncertainty, the adoption of strict rules for estimation and reporting would favour comparability of emission reductions between countries. We believe that a reduction of the bias in emission factors will arise, among other things, from a globally concerted effort to improve allometric equations for tropical forests. Public access to datasets and methodology

REDD+ emissions estimation and reporting: dealing with uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Pelletier, Johanne; Martin, Davy; Potvin, Catherine

2013-09-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defined the technical and financial modalities of policy approaches and incentives to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+). Substantial technical challenges hinder precise and accurate estimation of forest-related emissions and removals, as well as the setting and assessment of reference levels. These challenges could limit country participation in REDD+, especially if REDD+ emission reductions were to meet quality standards required to serve as compliance grade offsets for developed countries’ emissions. Using Panama as a case study, we tested the matrix approach proposed by Bucki et al (2012 Environ. Res. Lett. 7 024005) to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analysis distinguishing between ‘modelling sources’ of uncertainty, which refers to model-specific parameters and assumptions, and ‘recurring sources’ of uncertainty, which refers to random and systematic errors in emission factors and activity data. The sensitivity analysis estimated differences in the resulting fluxes ranging from 4.2% to 262.2% of the reference emission level. The classification of fallows and the carbon stock increment or carbon accumulation of intact forest lands were the two key parameters showing the largest sensitivity. The highest error propagated using Monte Carlo simulations was caused by modelling sources of uncertainty, which calls for special attention to ensure consistency in REDD+ reporting which is essential for securing environmental integrity. Due to the role of these modelling sources of uncertainty, the adoption of strict rules for estimation and reporting would favour comparability of emission reductions between countries. We believe that a reduction of the bias in emission factors will arise, among other things, from a globally concerted effort to improve allometric equations for tropical forests. Public access to datasets and methodology

Nuclear Weapons Sustainment: Improvements Made to Budget Estimates Report, but Opportunities Remain to Further Enhance Transparency

Science.gov (United States)

2015-12-01

Enhance Transparency Report to Congressional Committees December 2015 GAO-16-23 United States Government Accountability Office United...SUSTAINMENT Improvements Made to Budget Estimates Report, but Opportunities Remain to Further Enhance Transparency Why GAO Did This Study DOD and DOE are...modernization plans and (2) complete, transparent information on the methodologies used to develop those estimates. GAO analyzed the departments

[Dual process in large number estimation under uncertainty].

Science.gov (United States)

Matsumuro, Miki; Miwa, Kazuhisa; Terai, Hitoshi; Yamada, Kento

2016-08-01

According to dual process theory, there are two systems in the mind: an intuitive and automatic System 1 and a logical and effortful System 2. While many previous studies about number estimation have focused on simple heuristics and automatic processes, the deliberative System 2 process has not been sufficiently studied. This study focused on the System 2 process for large number estimation. First, we described an estimation process based on participants’ verbal reports. The task, corresponding to the problem-solving process, consisted of creating subgoals, retrieving values, and applying operations. Second, we investigated the influence of such deliberative process by System 2 on intuitive estimation by System 1, using anchoring effects. The results of the experiment showed that the System 2 process could mitigate anchoring effects.

Intermediate-term uranium supply curve estimation. Final report, February 1981

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steyn, J.J.; Goudarzi, L.A.; Douglas, R.F.

1981-02-01

The study was undertaken to estimate US natural uranium supply capacities and associated economic costs over the intermediate term period, 1979 to 1990, and to develop the general supply outlook to 2000. Annual supply capacity schedules were estimated on an individual mill and mine family (production center) basis. Future production schedules were estimated by balancing estimated supply capacity with DOE future demand projections ranging from 150 GWe to 396 GWe of installed nuclear capacity in 2000; the impact of private sector inventory levels was accounted for. The long run economic cost of production was estimated by applying a specifically derived production cost model to individual mines and mills using available data, as for example, ore depths, grades, production type and capacity, mill recovery; economic assumptions, as for example, 16% return on equity, were also made. The study report presents details of the methodology and data used, and the results obtained; the production center assessment, the supply/cost curves developed, and the cost models used, are also presented. For the current trend outlook, the results indicate that existing and under-construction centers can meet the bulk of demand through 1990, and that new centers will be required to meet substantial shortfalls in the 1990s. The study indicated that the US average long run economic cost of $30 per pound in 1979, in constant dollars, will begin to increase after 1985 at between 4 and 5%

Validation of generic cost estimates for construction-related activities at nuclear power plants: Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simion, G.; Sciacca, F.; Claiborne, E.; Watlington, B.; Riordan, B.; McLaughlin, M.

1988-05-01

This report represents a validation study of the cost methodologies and quantitative factors derived in Labor Productivity Adjustment Factors and Generic Methodology for Estimating the Labor Cost Associated with the Removal of Hardware, Materials, and Structures From Nuclear Power Plants. This cost methodology was developed to support NRC analysts in determining generic estimates of removal, installation, and total labor costs for construction-related activities at nuclear generating stations. In addition to the validation discussion, this report reviews the generic cost analysis methodology employed. It also discusses each of the individual cost factors used in estimating the costs of physical modifications at nuclear power plants. The generic estimating approach presented uses the /open quotes/greenfield/close quotes/ or new plant construction installation costs compiled in the Energy Economic Data Base (EEDB) as a baseline. These baseline costs are then adjusted to account for labor productivity, radiation fields, learning curve effects, and impacts on ancillary systems or components. For comparisons of estimated vs actual labor costs, approximately four dozen actual cost data points (as reported by 14 nuclear utilities) were obtained. Detailed background information was collected on each individual data point to give the best understanding possible so that the labor productivity factors, removal factors, etc., could judiciously be chosen. This study concludes that cost estimates that are typically within 40% of the actual values can be generated by prudently using the methodologies and cost factors investigated herein

Accuracy of self-reported drinking: observational verification of 'last occasion' drink estimates of young adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Northcote, Jeremy; Livingston, Michael

2011-01-01

As a formative step towards determining the accuracy of self-reported drinking levels commonly used for estimating population alcohol use, the validity of a 'last occasion' self-reporting approach is tested with corresponding field observations of participants' drinking quantity. This study is the first known attempt to validate the accuracy of self-reported alcohol consumption using data from a natural setting. A total of 81 young adults (aged 18-25 years) were purposively selected in Perth, Western Australia. Participants were asked to report the number of alcoholic drinks consumed at nightlife venues 1-2 days after being observed by peer-based researchers on 239 occasions. Complete observation data and self-report estimates were available for 129 sessions, which were fitted with multi-level models assessing the relationship between observed and reported consumption. Participants accurately estimated their consumption when engaging in light to moderate drinking (eight or fewer drinks in a single session), with no significant difference between the mean reported consumption and the mean observed consumption. In contrast, participants underestimated their own consumption by increasing amounts when engaging in heavy drinking of more than eight drinks. It is suggested that recent recall methods in self-report surveys are potentially reasonably accurate measures of actual drinking levels for light to moderate drinkers, but that underestimating of alcohol consumption increases with heavy consumption. Some of the possible reasons for underestimation of heavy drinking are discussed, with both cognitive and socio-cultural factors considered.

Estimating the prevalence of infertility in Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Bushnik, Tracey; Cook, Jocelynn L.; Yuzpe, A. Albert; Tough, Suzanne; Collins, John

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND Over the past 10 years, there has been a significant increase in the use of assisted reproductive technologies in Canada, however, little is known about the overall prevalence of infertility in the population. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the prevalence of current infertility in Canada according to three definitions of the risk of conception. METHODS Data from the infertility component of the 2009–2010 Canadian Community Health Survey were analyzed for married and common-law couples with a female partner aged 18–44. The three definitions of the risk of conception were derived sequentially starting with birth control use in the previous 12 months, adding reported sexual intercourse in the previous 12 months, then pregnancy intent. Prevalence and odds ratios of current infertility were estimated by selected characteristics. RESULTS Estimates of the prevalence of current infertility ranged from 11.5% (95% CI 10.2, 12.9) to 15.7% (95% CI 14.2, 17.4). Each estimate represented an increase in current infertility prevalence in Canada when compared with previous national estimates. Couples with lower parity (0 or 1 child) had significantly higher odds of experiencing current infertility when the female partner was aged 35–44 years versus 18–34 years. Lower odds of experiencing current infertility were observed for multiparous couples regardless of age group of the female partner, when compared with nulliparous couples. CONCLUSIONS The present study suggests that the prevalence of current infertility has increased since the last time it was measured in Canada, and is associated with the age of the female partner and parity. PMID:22258658

A previously unreported variant of the synostotic sagittal suture: Case report and review of salient literature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Madison Budinich

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Sagittal synostosis is a rare congenital disease caused by the premature fusion of the sagittal suture. Craniosynostosis occurs for a variety of reasons, different for every case, and often the etiology is unclear but the anomaly can frequently be seen as part of Crouzon's or Apert's syndromes. Herein, we discuss a rare case of craniosynostosis where the patient presented with a, to our knowledge, a previously undescribed variant of sagittal synostosis. Case report: A 3-month-old female infant presented to a craniofacial clinic for a consultation regarding an abnormal head shape. Images of the skull were performed, demonstrating that the patient had craniosynostosis. The patient displayed no other significant symptoms besides abnormalities in head shape. The sagittal suture was found to extend into the occipital bone where it was synostotic. Conclusion: To our knowledge, a synostotic sagittal suture has not been reported that extended posteriorly it involve the occipital bone. Those who interpret imaging or operate on this part of the skull should consider such a variation. Keywords: Anatomy, Craniosynostosis, Skull, Malformation, Pediatrics

Making (up) the grade? estimating the genetic and environmental influences of discrepancies between self-reported grades and official GPA scores.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, Joseph A; Beaver, Kevin M

2015-05-01

Academic achievement has been found to have a pervasive and substantial impact on a wide range of developmental outcomes and has also been implicated in the critical transition from adolescence into early adulthood. Previous research has revealed that self-reported grades tend to diverge from official transcript grade point average (GPA) scores, with students being more likely to report inflated scores. Making use of a sample of monozygotic twin (N = 282 pairs), dizygotic twin (N = 441 pairs), and full sibling (N = 1,757 pairs) pairs from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health; 65 % White; 50 % male; mean age = 16.14), the current study is the first to investigate the role that genetic and environmental factors play in misreporting grade information. A comparison between self-reported GPA (mean score of 2.86) and official transcript GPA scores (mean score of 2.44) revealed that self-reported scores were approximately one-half letter grade greater than official scores. Liability threshold models revealed that additive genetic influences explained between 40 and 63 % of the variance in reporting inflated grades and correctly reporting GPA, with the remaining variance explained by the nonshared environment. Conversely, 100 % of the variance in reporting deflated grade information was explained by nonshared environmental influences. In an effort to identify specific nonshared environmental influences on reporting accuracy, multivariate models that adequately control for genetic influences were estimated and revealed that siblings with lower transcript GPA scores were significantly less likely to correctly report their GPA and significantly more likely to report inflated GPA scores. Additional analyses revealed that verbal IQ and self-control were not significantly associated with self-reported GPA accuracy after controlling for genetic influences. These findings indicate that previous studies that implicate verbal IQ and self

General guidance and procedures for estimating and reporting national GHG emissions for agriculture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rypdal, K.

2002-01-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture account for a large share of total GHG emissions in most countries. Methane from ruminants, animal manure and rice fields, and nitrous oxide from agricultural soils are among the most important sources. In general, these emission estimates also are more uncertain than most other parts of the GHG emission inventory. IPCC has developed guidelines for estimating and reporting emissions of GHG. These guidelines shall be followed to secure complete, consistent, accurate and transparent reporting of emissions. However, the recommended methodologies are tiered, and choice of methods shall preferably reflect national circumstances, the national importance of a source, and different resources to prepare inventories. A country may also apply a national methodology given that it is well documented and not in conflict with good practice. Emission data reported under the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change are subject to external control, and the methodologies are reviewed by experts on agricultural inventories. (au)

Reported estimates of diagnostic accuracy in ophthalmology conference abstracts were not associated with full-text publication.

Science.gov (United States)

Korevaar, Daniël A; Cohen, Jérémie F; Spijker, René; Saldanha, Ian J; Dickersin, Kay; Virgili, Gianni; Hooft, Lotty; Bossuyt, Patrick M M

2016-11-01

To assess whether conference abstracts that report higher estimates of diagnostic accuracy are more likely to reach full-text publication in a peer-reviewed journal. We identified abstracts describing diagnostic accuracy studies, presented between 2007 and 2010 at the Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology (ARVO) Annual Meeting. We extracted reported estimates of sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR). Between May and July 2015, we searched MEDLINE and EMBASE to identify corresponding full-text publications; if needed, we contacted abstract authors. Cox regression was performed to estimate associations with full-text publication, where sensitivity, specificity, and AUC were logit transformed, and DOR was log transformed. A full-text publication was found for 226/399 (57%) included abstracts. There was no association between reported estimates of sensitivity and full-text publication (hazard ratio [HR] 1.09 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.98, 1.22]). The same applied to specificity (HR 1.00 [95% CI 0.88, 1.14]), AUC (HR 0.91 [95% CI 0.75, 1.09]), and DOR (HR 1.01 [95% CI 0.94, 1.09]). Almost half of the ARVO conference abstracts describing diagnostic accuracy studies did not reach full-text publication. Studies in abstracts that mentioned higher accuracy estimates were not more likely to be reported in a full-text publication. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of intermediate-grade uranium resources II. Proposed method for estimating intermediate-grade uranium resources in roll-front deposits. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lambie, F.W.; Yee, S.N.

1981-09-01

The purpose of this and a previous project was to examine the feasibility of estimating intermediate grade uranium (0.01 to 0.05% U 3 O 8 ) on the basis of existing, sparsely drilled holes. All data are from the Powder River Basin in Wyoming. DOE makes preliminary estimates of endowment by calculating an Average Area of Influence (AAI) based on densely drilled areas, multiplying that by the thickness of the mineralization and then dividing by a tonnage factor. The resulting tonnage of ore is then multiplied by the average grade of the interval to obtain the estimate of U 3 O 8 tonnage. Total endowment is the sum of these values over all mineralized intervals in all wells in the area. In regions where wells are densely drilled and approximately regularly spaced this technique approaches the classical polygonal estimation technique used to estimate ore reserves and should be fairly reliable. The method is conservative because: (1) in sparsely drilled regions a large fraction of the area is not considered to contribute to endowment; (2) there is a bias created by the different distributions of point grades and mining block grades. A conservative approach may be justified for purposes of ore reserve estimation, where large investments may hinge on local forecasts. But for estimates of endowment over areas as large as 1 0 by 2 0 quadrangles, or the nation as a whole, errors in local predictions are not critical as long as they tend to cancel and a less conservative estimation approach may be justified.One candidate, developed for this study and described is called the contoured thickness technique. A comparison of estimates based on the contoured thickness approach with DOE calculations for five areas of Wyoming roll-fronts in the Powder River Basin is presented. The sensitivity of the technique to well density is examined and the question of predicting intermediate grade endowment from data on higher grades is discussed

Estimation of Radar Cross Section of a Target under Track

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong Sun-Mog

2010-01-01

Full Text Available In allocating radar beam for tracking a target, it is attempted to maintain the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR of signal returning from the illuminated target close to an optimum value for efficient track updates. An estimate of the average radar cross section (RCS of the target is required in order to adjust transmitted power based on the estimate such that a desired SNR can be realized. In this paper, a maximum-likelihood (ML approach is presented for estimating the average RCS, and a numerical solution to the approach is proposed based on a generalized expectation maximization (GEM algorithm. Estimation accuracy of the approach is compared to that of a previously reported procedure.

Urethrotomy has a much lower success rate than previously reported.

Science.gov (United States)

Santucci, Richard; Eisenberg, Lauren

2010-05-01

We evaluated the success rate of direct vision internal urethrotomy as a treatment for simple male urethral strictures. A retrospective chart review was performed on 136 patients who underwent urethrotomy from January 1994 through March 2009. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze stricture-free probability after the first, second, third, fourth and fifth urethrotomy. Patients with complex strictures (36) were excluded from the study for reasons including previous urethroplasty, neophallus or previous radiation, and 24 patients were lost to followup. Data were available for 76 patients. The stricture-free rate after the first urethrotomy was 8% with a median time to recurrence of 7 months. For the second urethrotomy stricture-free rate was 6% with a median time to recurrence of 9 months. For the third urethrotomy stricture-free rate was 9% with a median time to recurrence of 3 months. For procedures 4 and 5 stricture-free rate was 0% with a median time to recurrence of 20 and 8 months, respectively. Urethrotomy is a popular treatment for male urethral strictures. However, the performance characteristics are poor. Success rates were no higher than 9% in this series for first or subsequent urethrotomy during the observation period. Most of the patients in this series will be expected to experience failure with longer followup and the expected long-term success rate from any (1 through 5) urethrotomy approach is 0%. Urethrotomy should be considered a temporizing measure until definitive curative reconstruction can be planned. 2010 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Unexpected finding of T-cell lymphoma in a previously healthy 16-year-old patient after a thorax trauma: a case report

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bach Okholm-Hansen, Anna; Brorson, Stig

2014-01-01

INTRODUCTION: We describe the clinical course and emphasize the difficulties in diagnosing T-cell lymphoblastic lymphoma. The differential diagnostic difficulties have previously been described in regard to pneumonia, but to the best of the authors' knowledge this is the first case report to desc...... relevant to pediatricians, surgeons, anesthesiologists, and general practitioners....

SOUTH POLE TELESCOPE DETECTIONS OF THE PREVIOUSLY UNCONFIRMED PLANCK EARLY SUNYAEV-ZEL'DOVICH CLUSTERS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Story, K.; Benson, B. A.; Bleem, L. E.; Carlstrom, J. E.; Chang, C. L.; Crawford, T. M.; Crites, A. T.; Aird, K. A.; Andersson, K.; Bazin, G.; Armstrong, R.; Desai, S.; Bonamente, M.; Brodwin, M.; Foley, R. J.; Clocchiatti, A.; De Haan, T.; Dobbs, M. A.; Dudley, J. P.; George, E. M.

2011-01-01

We present South Pole Telescope (SPT) observations of the five galaxy cluster candidates in the southern hemisphere which were reported as unconfirmed in the Planck Early Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (ESZ) sample. One cluster candidate, PLCKESZ G255.62-46.16, is located in the 2500 deg 2 SPT SZ survey region and was reported previously as SPT-CL J0411-4819. For the remaining four candidates, which are located outside of the SPT SZ survey region, we performed short, dedicated SPT observations. Each of these four candidates was strongly detected in maps made from these observations, with signal-to-noise ratios ranging from 6.3 to 13.8. We have observed these four candidates on the Magellan-Baade telescope and used these data to estimate cluster redshifts from the red sequence. Resulting redshifts range from 0.24 to 0.46. We report measurements of Y 0.'75 , the integrated Comptonization within a 0.'75 radius, for all five candidates. We also report X-ray luminosities calculated from ROSAT All-Sky Survey catalog counts, as well as optical and improved SZ coordinates for each candidate. The combination of SPT SZ measurements, optical red-sequence measurements, and X-ray luminosity estimates demonstrates that these five Planck ESZ cluster candidates do indeed correspond to real galaxy clusters with redshifts and observable properties consistent with the rest of the ESZ sample.

Self-reported physical activity among blacks: estimates from national surveys.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitt-Glover, Melicia C; Taylor, Wendell C; Heath, Gregory W; Macera, Caroline A

2007-11-01

National surveillance data provide population-level estimates of physical activity participation, but generally do not include detailed subgroup analyses, which could provide a better understanding of physical activity among subgroups. This paper presents a descriptive analysis of self-reported regular physical activity among black adults using data from the 2003 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (n=19,189), the 2004 National Health Interview Survey (n=4263), and the 1999-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (n=3407). Analyses were conducted between January and March 2006. Datasets were analyzed separately to estimate the proportion of black adults meeting national physical activity recommendations overall and stratified by gender and other demographic subgroups. The proportion of black adults reporting regular PA ranged from 24% to 36%. Regular physical activity was highest among men; younger age groups; highest education and income groups; those who were employed and married; overweight, but not obese, men; and normal-weight women. This pattern was consistent across surveys. The observed physical activity patterns were consistent with national trends. The data suggest that older black adults and those with low education and income levels are at greatest risk for inactive lifestyles and may require additional attention in efforts to increase physical activity in black adults. The variability across datasets reinforces the need for objective measures in national surveys.

Estimates of Social Contact in a Middle School Based on Self-Report and Wireless Sensor Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Leecaster, Molly; Toth, Damon J A; Pettey, Warren B P; Rainey, Jeanette J; Gao, Hongjiang; Uzicanin, Amra; Samore, Matthew

2016-01-01

Estimates of contact among children, used for infectious disease transmission models and understanding social patterns, historically rely on self-report logs. Recently, wireless sensor technology has enabled objective measurement of proximal contact and comparison of data from the two methods. These are mostly small-scale studies, and knowledge gaps remain in understanding contact and mixing patterns and also in the advantages and disadvantages of data collection methods. We collected contact data from a middle school, with 7th and 8th grades, for one day using self-report contact logs and wireless sensors. The data were linked for students with unique initials, gender, and grade within the school. This paper presents the results of a comparison of two approaches to characterize school contact networks, wireless proximity sensors and self-report logs. Accounting for incomplete capture and lack of participation, we estimate that "sensor-detectable", proximal contacts longer than 20 seconds during lunch and class-time occurred at 2 fold higher frequency than "self-reportable" talk/touch contacts. Overall, 55% of estimated talk-touch contacts were also sensor-detectable whereas only 15% of estimated sensor-detectable contacts were also talk-touch. Contacts detected by sensors and also in self-report logs had longer mean duration than contacts detected only by sensors (6.3 vs 2.4 minutes). During both lunch and class-time, sensor-detectable contacts demonstrated substantially less gender and grade assortativity than talk-touch contacts. Hallway contacts, which were ascertainable only by proximity sensors, were characterized by extremely high degree and short duration. We conclude that the use of wireless sensors and self-report logs provide complementary insight on in-school mixing patterns and contact frequency.

Women's Experience of Orgasm During Intercourse: Question Semantics Affect Women's Reports and Men's Estimates of Orgasm Occurrence.

Science.gov (United States)

Shirazi, Talia; Renfro, Kaytlin J; Lloyd, Elisabeth; Wallen, Kim

2018-04-01

Most women report reliably experiencing orgasm from masturbation, but a smaller proportion of women report regularly experiencing orgasm from intercourse. Research suggests that concurrent clitoral stimulation during intercourse increases the likelihood of orgasm, yet most surveys of orgasm during intercourse leave unspecified whether vaginal intercourse does or does not include concurrent clitoral stimulation (assisted intercourse or unassisted intercourse, respectively). Using an online sample of 1569 men and 1478 women, we tested whether phrasing of questions about the occurrence of orgasm in intercourse modulates women's reported frequency and men's estimates of women's frequency of orgasm in intercourse. Participants provided estimates of orgasm when asked explicitly about intercourse with stimulation unspecified, assisted intercourse, and unassisted intercourse. Women's reports of orgasm occurrence were highest in response to assisted intercourse (51-60%), second highest in response to intercourse with clitoral stimulation unspecified (31-40%), and lowest in response to unassisted intercourse (21-30%). Men's estimates of women's orgasms were highest in response to assisted intercourse (61-70%), and lowest in response to unassisted intercourse (41-50%); in both conditions, men's estimates were significantly higher than women's reports. When clitoral stimulation was unspecified, women interpreted "orgasm in intercourse" in three ways: as from intercourse alone, as including concurrent clitoral stimulation though it was unspecified, or as an average of assisted and unassisted intercourse. Taken together, these results demonstrate that the phrasing of questions about women's orgasm produces markedly different orgasm estimates, and suggest that concurrent clitoral stimulation increases the likelihood of women experiencing orgasm in intercourse.

HIV Model Parameter Estimates from Interruption Trial Data including Drug Efficacy and Reservoir Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Rutao; Piovoso, Michael J.; Martinez-Picado, Javier; Zurakowski, Ryan

2012-01-01

Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) have had significant impact on understanding HIV disease dynamics and optimizing patient treatment. A model that characterizes the essential disease dynamics can be used for prediction only if the model parameters are identifiable from clinical data. Most previous parameter identification studies for HIV have used sparsely sampled data from the decay phase following the introduction of therapy. In this paper, model parameters are identified from frequently sampled viral-load data taken from ten patients enrolled in the previously published AutoVac HAART interruption study, providing between 69 and 114 viral load measurements from 3–5 phases of viral decay and rebound for each patient. This dataset is considerably larger than those used in previously published parameter estimation studies. Furthermore, the measurements come from two separate experimental conditions, which allows for the direct estimation of drug efficacy and reservoir contribution rates, two parameters that cannot be identified from decay-phase data alone. A Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo method is used to estimate the model parameter values, with initial estimates obtained using nonlinear least-squares methods. The posterior distributions of the parameter estimates are reported and compared for all patients. PMID:22815727

Left ventricular asynergy score as an indicator of previous myocardial infarction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Backman, C.; Jacobsson, K.A.; Linderholm, H.; Osterman, G.

1986-01-01

Sixty-eight patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) i.e. a hisotry of angina of effort and/or previous 'possible infarction' were examined inter alia with ECG and cinecardioangiography. A system of scoring was designed which allowed a semiquantitative estimate of the left ventricular asynergy from cinecardioangiography - the left ventricular motion score (LVMS). The LVMS was associated with the presence of a previous myocardial infarction (MI), as indicated by the history and ECG findings. The ECG changes specific for a previous MI were associated with high LVMS values and unspecific or absent ECG changes with low LVMS values. Decision thresholds for ECG changes and asynergy in diagnosing a previous MI were evaluated by means of a ROC analysis. The accuracy of ECG in detecting a previous MI was slightly higher when asynergy indicated a 'true MI' than when autopsy result did so in a comparable group. Therefore the accuracy of asynergy (LVMS ≥ 1) in detecting a previous MI or myocardial fibrosis in patients with CHD should be at least comparable with that of autopsy (scar > 1 cm). (orig.)

Integrating environmental and self-report data to refine cannabis prevalence estimates in a major urban area of Switzerland.

Science.gov (United States)

Been, Frederic; Schneider, Christian; Zobel, Frank; Delémont, Olivier; Esseiva, Pierre

2016-10-01

Cannabis consumption is a topical subject because of discussions about reviewing current regulations. In this context, having a more comprehensive approach to assess and monitor prevalence and consumption is highly relevant. The objective of this work was to refine current estimates about prevalence of cannabis use by combining self-report data and results derived from wastewater analysis. Self-report data was retrieved from surveys conducted in Switzerland and Europe. Wastewater samples were collected at the wastewater treatment plant of Lausanne, western Switzerland, over a 15 months period. The occurrence of 11-nor-9-carboxy-delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC-COOH), a specific metabolite of delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), was monitored. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate consumption, prevalence and number of cannabis users in the investigated area. According to survey data, 12-months prevalence in western Switzerland was estimated to 6.2% of the population aged 15 or older, with an estimated daily cannabis consumption of 8.1gday(-1)·1000inhab(-1) (at 11.2% purity). The integrative model comprising self-report and wastewater data substantially reduced the uncertainty in the estimates and suggested a last-year prevalence of 9.4%, with a daily cannabis consumption of 14.0gday(-1)·1000inhab(-1). Although in the same order of magnitude, consumption and prevalence estimates obtained with the integrative model were 78% and 52% higher compared to self-report figures, respectively. Interestingly, these figures are similar to discrepancies observed when comparing self-reported alcohol consumption and sales or tax data. The suggested integrative model allowed to account for known sources of uncertainty and provided refined estimates of cannabis prevalence in a major urban area of Switzerland. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Placenta Percreta Invading Broad Ligament and Parametrium in a Woman with Two Previous Cesarean Sections: A Case Report

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mansoureh Vahdat

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. The incidence of placenta accreta has dramatically increased due to increasing caesarean section rate all over the world. Placenta percreta is the most severe form of placenta accretes. It frequently results in maternal morbidity and mortality mainly caused by massive obstetric hemorrhage or emergency hysterectomy. Percreta invading into the broad ligament has rarely been previously reported. Case presenting. We presented a case of placenta percreta invading left broad ligament and parametrium in a woman with two previous cesarean sections, which led to massive intraoperative hemorrhage during hysterectomy and transient ischemic encephalopathy. Conclusion. In cases of parametrial involvement, it would be more difficult to decide whether to remove placenta or leave it in site. In surgical removal neither local excision of placental bed and uterine repair nor traditional hysterectomy is adequate if parametrium invaded by placenta. We suggest delayed elective hysterectomy in such cases. So, pregnancy-induced pelvic congestion would be decreased, we can gather an expert team of gynecologists, urologists, and vascular surgeons, we could get plenty of blood products, and we may have the chance to administer methotrexate.

A new potentiometric method for the estimation of the rare earth elements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Selig, W.S.

1988-01-01

Chinese workers recently described a new potentiometric method for lead using sodium tetraphenylborate (NaTPB) as a titrant. Based on a previous Chinese publication, the authors have recently developed a method for the estimation of the alkaline earth metals by sequential titration with NaTPB. In the present work, the authors report a similar method for the estimation of the rare earth elements, including Sc and Y. The sensing electrode is a spectrographic graphite rod, coated with a solution of poly(vinyl chloride) and dioctylphthalate in tetrahydrofuran as previously described. The reference electrode was a double-junction Ag/AgCl electrode. The titration system is controlled by a Tektronix 4051 graphics computer system. Single cations or mixtures up to 0.5 mequiv are determined by potentiometric titration with 0.05 N NaTPB, after formation of the oxonium cations by reaction with an aqueous solution of poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG). Best results are obtained with PEGs of molecular weights from 8,000 to 20,000. Sequential estimation of Pb + Ba, Sr, and Ca, and the sum of the rare earth elements is also reported, plus possible applications to Al, Ga, and anions precipitated by lead

Estimation of Anaerobic Debromination Rate Constants of PBDE Pathways Using an Anaerobic Dehalogenation Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Karakas, Filiz; Imamoglu, Ipek

2017-04-01

This study aims to estimate anaerobic debromination rate constants (k m ) of PBDE pathways using previously reported laboratory soil data. k m values of pathways are estimated by modifying a previously developed model as Anaerobic Dehalogenation Model. Debromination activities published in the literature in terms of bromine substitutions as well as specific microorganisms and their combinations are used for identification of pathways. The range of estimated k m values is between 0.0003 and 0.0241 d -1 . The median and maximum of k m values are found to be comparable to the few available biologically confirmed rate constants published in the literature. The estimated k m values can be used as input to numerical fate and transport models for a better and more detailed investigation of the fate of individual PBDEs in contaminated sediments. Various remediation scenarios such as monitored natural attenuation or bioremediation with bioaugmentation can be handled in a more quantitative manner with the help of k m estimated in this study.

Estimates of Social Contact in a Middle School Based on Self-Report and Wireless Sensor Data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Molly Leecaster

Full Text Available Estimates of contact among children, used for infectious disease transmission models and understanding social patterns, historically rely on self-report logs. Recently, wireless sensor technology has enabled objective measurement of proximal contact and comparison of data from the two methods. These are mostly small-scale studies, and knowledge gaps remain in understanding contact and mixing patterns and also in the advantages and disadvantages of data collection methods. We collected contact data from a middle school, with 7th and 8th grades, for one day using self-report contact logs and wireless sensors. The data were linked for students with unique initials, gender, and grade within the school. This paper presents the results of a comparison of two approaches to characterize school contact networks, wireless proximity sensors and self-report logs. Accounting for incomplete capture and lack of participation, we estimate that "sensor-detectable", proximal contacts longer than 20 seconds during lunch and class-time occurred at 2 fold higher frequency than "self-reportable" talk/touch contacts. Overall, 55% of estimated talk-touch contacts were also sensor-detectable whereas only 15% of estimated sensor-detectable contacts were also talk-touch. Contacts detected by sensors and also in self-report logs had longer mean duration than contacts detected only by sensors (6.3 vs 2.4 minutes. During both lunch and class-time, sensor-detectable contacts demonstrated substantially less gender and grade assortativity than talk-touch contacts. Hallway contacts, which were ascertainable only by proximity sensors, were characterized by extremely high degree and short duration. We conclude that the use of wireless sensors and self-report logs provide complementary insight on in-school mixing patterns and contact frequency.

Iodine-131 induced hepatotoxicity in previously healthy patients with Grave's disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Jhummon, Navina Priya; Tohooloo, Bhavna; Qu, Shen

2013-01-01

To describe the association of the rare and serious complication of liver toxicity in previously healthy Grave's disease (GD) patients after the treatment with radioactive iodine (131)I (RAI). We report the clinical, laboratory and pathologic findings of 2 cases of severe liver toxicity associated with the treatment with RAI in previously healthy patients with GD. Clinical examination and laboratory investigations excluded viral hepatitis, autoimmune hepatitis, granulomatous disease, primary biliary disease, extrahepatic biliary obstruction, and heart failure. Case 1: A previously healthy 52-years old man reportedly having a typical GD but following RAI treatment, concomitantly developed severe liver toxicity that required 1 week of treatment in hospital. Case 2: A previously healthy 34-years old woman is reported as having a typical GD but developed jaundice following RAI treatment that required several weeks of in hospital treatment in the hepato-biliary department. In both cases, the liver dysfunction resolved after intensive treatment with hepato-protective agents. In this report the therapeutic considerations as well as the pathogenetic possibilities are reviewed. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first description of the association observed, which is rare but may be severe and should be considered in any case of thyrotoxicosis where a liver dysfunction develops after the treatment with radioactive iodine (131)I.

Incompatibility of sensitisation and re-estimation of lithium fluoride thermoluminescent phosphor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartlett, D.T.; Sandford, D.J.

1978-01-01

A technique of useful sensitisation of lithium fluoride thermoluminescent phosphor has been reported by Mayhugh and Fullerton, (USAEC Report COO-1105-209, 1974). This technique differs from that previously described (Cameron and Zimmerman, USAEC Report COO-1105-102, 1965) in that during the anneal at 300 degrees C which follows the high pre-dose, the phosphor is simultaneously exposed to 254 nm ultraviolet light. It is reported that this method removes interfering centres and hence reduces the lowest detectable dose. Sensitisation also has the advantages of improved tissue equivalence and increased range of linearity. However, a disadvantage of both techniques of sensitisation is that for sensitised phosphor, absorbed doses cannot be re-estimated by photo-transferred thermoluminescence. Results are compared for discs of lithium fluoride in PTFE, some of which were sensitised by each method, and some left unsensitised. It is concluded that for routine personal dosimetry the disadvantages of the loss of the facility to re-estimate absorbed dose outweighs the reported advantages of sensitisation. (author)

Report on estimated nuclear energy related cost for fiscal 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

The report first describes major actions planned to be taken in Japan in fiscal 1991 in the field of nuclear energy utilization. Major activities to be made for comprehensive strengthening of safety assurance measures are described, focusing on improvement of nuclear energy related safety regulations, promotion of research for safety assurance, improvement and strengthening of disaster prevention measures, environmental radioactivity surveys, control of exposure of workers engaged in radioactivity related jobs, etc. The report then describes actions required for the establishment of a nuclear fuel cycle, focusing on the procurement of uranium resources, establishment of a uranium enrichment process, reprocessing of spent fuel, application of recovered uranium, etc. Other activities are required for the development of new type reactors, effective application of plutonium, development of basic techniques, international contributions, cooperation with the public. Then, the report summarizes estimated costs required for the activities to be performed by the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute, Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation, National Institute of Radiological Sciences, Institute of Physical and Chemical Research. (N.K.)

Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R. II.

1993-05-01

Several advanced power plant concepts are currently under development. These include the Modular High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors, the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor and the Advanced Light Water Reactors. One measure of the attractiveness of a new concept is its cost. Invariably, the cost of a new type of power plant will be compared with other alternative forms of electrical generation. This report provides a common starting point, whereby the cost estimates for the various power plants to be considered are developed with common assumptions and ground rules. Comparisons can then be made on a consistent basis. This is the second update of these cost estimate guidelines. Changes have been made to make the guidelines more current (January 1, 1992) and in response to suggestions made as a result of the use of the previous report. The principal changes are that the reference site has been changed from a generic Northeast (Middletown) site to a more central site (EPRI's East/West Central site) and that reference bulk commodity prices and labor productivity rates have been added. This report is designed to provide a framework for the preparation and reporting of costs. The cost estimates will consist of the overnight construction cost, the total plant capital cost, the operation and maintenance costs, the fuel costs, decommissioning costs and the power production or busbar generation cost

State energy data report 1994: Consumption estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-10-01

This document provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), operated by EIA. SEDS provides State energy consumption estimates to members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public, and provides the historical series needed for EIA`s energy models. Division is made for each energy type and end use sector. Nuclear electric power is included.

State energy data report 1994: Consumption estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-10-01

This document provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), operated by EIA. SEDS provides State energy consumption estimates to members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public, and provides the historical series needed for EIA's energy models. Division is made for each energy type and end use sector. Nuclear electric power is included

2004 status report: Savings estimates for the Energy Star(R)voluntarylabeling program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; McWhinney, Marla

2004-03-09

ENERGY STAR(R) is a voluntary labeling program designed toidentify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices.Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and theU.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more thanthirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating andcooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics,and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subsetof ENERGY STAR labeled products. We present estimates of the energy,dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2003, whatwe expect in 2004, and provide savings forecasts for two marketpenetration scenarios for the periods 2004 to 2010 and 2004 to 2020. Thetarget market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of futureENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goalsfor each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumptionof 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasersbuy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiencyproducts throughout the analysis period.

Prevalence, correlates, and description of self-reported diabetes in brazilian capitals - results from a telephone survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Iser, Betine Pinto Moehlecke; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow; de Moura, Lenildo; Vigo, Alvaro; Schmidt, Maria Inês

2014-01-01

The prevalence of diabetes is increasing worldwide. The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of self-reported diabetes in Brazilian adults and to describe its population correlates as well as the clinical characteristics of the reported cases. We analyzed basic and supplementary data of 54.144 subjects participating in VIGITEL 2011 (Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases), a telephone survey based on a probabilistic sample of subjects ≥ 18 years old residing in Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District. Estimates reported are weighted so as to represent the surveyed population. The prevalence of self-reported diabetes was 6.3% (95% CI 5.9-6.7), increasing markedly with age and nutritional status, and decreasing with level of education. Prevalence was higher among those self-declaring their race/color as black. Most cases (90%) reported the diagnosis being made at 35 years or older. The vast majority (99.8%) of self-reported cases informed having previously performed at least one glucose test, and 76% of those not reporting diabetes also informed having previously performed glucose testing. Most cases (92.6%) reported following some form of diabetes treatment, 79% taking medication. The estimated prevalence of known diabetes found, 6.3%, is consistent with estimates given by international summaries. The additional data collected in VIGITEL 2011 regarding previous glucose testing and current treatment support the use of telephone-based information to monitor the prevalence of known diabetes in Brazilian capitals.

The association between previous and future severe exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: Updating the literature using robust statistical methodology.

Science.gov (United States)

Sadatsafavi, Mohsen; Xie, Hui; Etminan, Mahyar; Johnson, Kate; FitzGerald, J Mark

2018-01-01

There is minimal evidence on the extent to which the occurrence of a severe acute exacerbation of COPD that results in hospitalization affects the subsequent disease course. Previous studies on this topic did not generate causally-interpretable estimates. Our aim was to use corrected methodology to update previously reported estimates of the associations between previous and future exacerbations in these patients. Using administrative health data in British Columbia, Canada (1997-2012), we constructed a cohort of patients with at least one severe exacerbation, defined as an episode of inpatient care with the main diagnosis of COPD based on international classification of diseases (ICD) codes. We applied a random-effects 'joint frailty' survival model that is particularly developed for the analysis of recurrent events in the presence of competing risk of death and heterogeneity among individuals in their rate of events. Previous severe exacerbations entered the model as dummy-coded time-dependent covariates, and the model was adjusted for several observable patient and disease characteristics. 35,994 individuals (mean age at baseline 73.7, 49.8% female, average follow-up 3.21 years) contributed 34,271 severe exacerbations during follow-up. The first event was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.75 (95%CI 1.69-1.82) for the risk of future severe exacerbations. This risk decreased to HR = 1.36 (95%CI 1.30-1.42) for the second event and to 1.18 (95%CI 1.12-1.25) for the third event. The first two severe exacerbations that occurred during follow-up were also significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality. There was substantial heterogeneity in the individual-specific rate of severe exacerbations. Even after adjusting for observable characteristics, individuals in the 97.5th percentile of exacerbation rate had 5.6 times higher rate of severe exacerbations than those in the 2.5th percentile. Using robust statistical methodology that controlled

Shunt malfunction causing acute neurological deterioration in 2 patients with previously asymptomatic Chiari malformation Type I. Report of two cases.

Science.gov (United States)

Elliott, Robert; Kalhorn, Stephen; Pacione, Donato; Weiner, Howard; Wisoff, Jeffrey; Harter, David

2009-08-01

Patients with symptomatic Chiari malformation Type I (CM-I) typically exhibit a chronic, slowly progressive disease course with evolution of symptoms. However, some authors have reported acute neurological deterioration in the setting of CM-I and acquired Chiari malformations. Although brainstem dysfunction has been documented in patients with CM-II and hydrocephalus or shunt malfunction, to the authors' knowledge only 1 report describing ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt malfunction causing neurological deterioration in a patient with CM-I exists. The authors report on their experience with the treatment of previously asymptomatic CM-I in 2 children who experienced quite different manifestations of acute neurological deterioration secondary to VP shunt malfunction. Presumably, VP shunt malfunction created a positive rostral pressure gradient across a stenotic foramen magnum, resulting in tetraparesis from foramen magnum syndrome in 1 patient and acute ataxia and cranial nerve deficits from syringobulbia in the other. Although urgent shunt revisions yielded partial recovery of neurological function in both patients, marked improvement occurred only after posterior fossa decompression.

Estimating the incidence reporting rates of new influenza pandemics at an early stage using travel data from the source country.

Science.gov (United States)

Chong, K C; Fong, H F; Zee, C Y

2014-05-01

During the surveillance of influenza pandemics, underreported data are a public health challenge that complicates the understanding of pandemic threats and can undermine mitigation efforts. We propose a method to estimate incidence reporting rates at early stages of new influenza pandemics using 2009 pandemic H1N1 as an example. Routine surveillance data and statistics of travellers arriving from Mexico were used. Our method incorporates changes in reporting rates such as linearly increasing trends due to the enhanced surveillance. From our results, the reporting rate was estimated at 0·46% during early stages of the pandemic in Mexico. We estimated cumulative incidence in the Mexican population to be 0·7% compared to 0·003% reported by officials in Mexico at the end of April. This method could be useful in estimation of actual cases during new influenza pandemics for policy makers to better determine appropriate control measures.

Influence of reported study design characteristics on intervention effect estimates from randomized, controlled trials

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Savović, Jelena; Jones, Hayley E; Altman, Douglas G

2012-01-01

bias and increases in between-trial heterogeneity were driven primarily by trials with subjective outcomes, with little evidence of bias in trials with objective and mortality outcomes. This study is limited by incomplete trial reporting, and findings may be confounded by other study design...... characteristics. Bias associated with study design characteristics may lead to exaggeration of intervention effect estimates and increases in between-trial heterogeneity in trials reporting subjectively assessed outcomes....

Process cells dismantling of EUREX pant: previous activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gili, M.

1998-01-01

In the '98-'99 period some process cells of the EUREX pant will be dismantled, in order to place there the liquid wastes conditioning plant 'CORA'. This report resumes the previous activities (plant rinsing campaigns and inactive Cell 014 dismantling), run in the past three years and the drawn experience [it

Population Estimates for Chum Salmon Spawning in the Mainstem Columbia River, 2002 Technical Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rawding, Dan; Hillson, Todd D. (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Olympia, WA)

2003-11-15

marks and lack of secondary studies made it difficult to test Jolly-Seber assumptions, necessary for unbiased estimates. We recommend that individual tags be applied to carcasses to provide a statistical basis for goodness of fit tests and ultimately model selection. Secondary or double marks should be applied to assess tag loss and male and female chum salmon carcasses should be enumerated separately. Carcass tagging population estimates at the two other sites were biased low due to limited sampling. The Area-Under-the-Curve escapement estimates at all three sites were 36% to 76% of Jolly-Seber estimates. Area-Under-the Curve estimates are likely biased low because previous assumptions that observer efficiency is 100% and residence time is 10 days proved incorrect. If managers continue to rely on Area-Under-the-Curve to estimate mainstem Columbia River spawners, a methodology is provided to develop annual estimates of observer efficiency and residence time, and to incorporate uncertainty into the Area-Under-the-Curve escapement estimate.

Automotive advertising copy test. Final report. [Mileage estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1984-10-01

The purpose of this research project was to explore the following issues: (1) mileage recall/recognition of miles per gallon/highway mileage estimates in print ads by advertisement readers; (2) determine consumer expectations and believability of advertised mileage guidelines; (3) measure recall/comprehension of mileage disclaimers; and (4) determine how consumers utilize published mileage estimates. The evidence from this study points to a public which is quite familiar with the EPA mileage estimates, in terms of using them as guidelines and in finding them to be helpful. Most adults also appear to be knowledgeable about factors which can affect car performance and, therefore, anticipate that, within certain tolerances, their actual mileage will differ from the EPA estimates. Although the consumer has been educated regarding fuel estimates, there is a very strong suggestion from this research that typical automobile print advertising does a less than an effective job in generating awareness of specific EPA estimates as well as their attendant disclaimer. Copy strategy and execution have a critical impact on recall of the EPA mileage estimates. 18 tables.

Factors influencing reporting and harvest probabilities in North American geese

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmerman, G.S.; Moser, T.J.; Kendall, W.L.; Doherty, P.F.; White, Gary C.; Caswell, D.F.

2009-01-01

We assessed variation in reporting probabilities of standard bands among species, populations, harvest locations, and size classes of North American geese to enable estimation of unbiased harvest probabilities. We included reward (US10,20,30,50, or100) and control (0) banded geese from 16 recognized goose populations of 4 species: Canada (Branta canadensis), cackling (B. hutchinsii), Ross's (Chen rossii), and snow geese (C. caerulescens). We incorporated spatially explicit direct recoveries and live recaptures into a multinomial model to estimate reporting, harvest, and band-retention probabilities. We compared various models for estimating harvest probabilities at country (United States vs. Canada), flyway (5 administrative regions), and harvest area (i.e., flyways divided into northern and southern sections) scales. Mean reporting probability of standard bands was 0.73 (95 CI 0.690.77). Point estimates of reporting probabilities for goose populations or spatial units varied from 0.52 to 0.93, but confidence intervals for individual estimates overlapped and model selection indicated that models with species, population, or spatial effects were less parsimonious than those without these effects. Our estimates were similar to recently reported estimates for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). We provide current harvest probability estimates for these populations using our direct measures of reporting probability, improving the accuracy of previous estimates obtained from recovery probabilities alone. Goose managers and researchers throughout North America can use our reporting probabilities to correct recovery probabilities estimated from standard banding operations for deriving spatially explicit harvest probabilities.

Review of the radiological significance of revised dose estimates for the Hiroshima-Nagasaki bomb survivors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Myers, D.K.; Osborne, R.V.

1988-03-01

Recently, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has indicated that new dosimetric and epidemiological data on Japanese bomb survivors will 'raise the risk estimate (for fatal cancers) for the exposed population by a total factor of the order of 2. This change is for a population of all ages, whereas for a worker population of ages 18-65 the changes will be small'. The present report has reviewed the available scientific literature that is relevant to this statement. The topics reviewed in this report include: a) the methods used in previous reports by scientific committees to calculate estimated lifetime risks of radiation-induced fatal cancers; b) recent revisions of the dosimetry for Hiroshima-Nagasaki survivors; c) updates on the epidemiological data on the Hiroshima-Nagasaki survivors; and d) revised estimates of fatal cancer risk from the Hiroshima-Nagasaki data

Estimating uncertainty in multivariate responses to selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Stinchcombe, John R; Simonsen, Anna K; Blows, Mark W

2014-04-01

Predicting the responses to natural selection is one of the key goals of evolutionary biology. Two of the challenges in fulfilling this goal have been the realization that many estimates of natural selection might be highly biased by environmentally induced covariances between traits and fitness, and that many estimated responses to selection do not incorporate or report uncertainty in the estimates. Here we describe the application of a framework that blends the merits of the Robertson-Price Identity approach and the multivariate breeder's equation to address these challenges. The approach allows genetic covariance matrices, selection differentials, selection gradients, and responses to selection to be estimated without environmentally induced bias, direct and indirect selection and responses to selection to be distinguished, and if implemented in a Bayesian-MCMC framework, statistically robust estimates of uncertainty on all of these parameters to be made. We illustrate our approach with a worked example of previously published data. More generally, we suggest that applying both the Robertson-Price Identity and the multivariate breeder's equation will facilitate hypothesis testing about natural selection, genetic constraints, and evolutionary responses. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Prevalence, correlates, and description of self-reported diabetes in brazilian capitals - results from a telephone survey.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Betine Pinto Moehlecke Iser

Full Text Available The prevalence of diabetes is increasing worldwide. The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of self-reported diabetes in Brazilian adults and to describe its population correlates as well as the clinical characteristics of the reported cases.We analyzed basic and supplementary data of 54.144 subjects participating in VIGITEL 2011 (Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases, a telephone survey based on a probabilistic sample of subjects ≥ 18 years old residing in Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District. Estimates reported are weighted so as to represent the surveyed population.The prevalence of self-reported diabetes was 6.3% (95% CI 5.9-6.7, increasing markedly with age and nutritional status, and decreasing with level of education. Prevalence was higher among those self-declaring their race/color as black. Most cases (90% reported the diagnosis being made at 35 years or older. The vast majority (99.8% of self-reported cases informed having previously performed at least one glucose test, and 76% of those not reporting diabetes also informed having previously performed glucose testing. Most cases (92.6% reported following some form of diabetes treatment, 79% taking medication.The estimated prevalence of known diabetes found, 6.3%, is consistent with estimates given by international summaries. The additional data collected in VIGITEL 2011 regarding previous glucose testing and current treatment support the use of telephone-based information to monitor the prevalence of known diabetes in Brazilian capitals.

Iodine-131 induced hepatotoxicity in previously healthy patients with Grave’s disease

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Objective To describe the association of the rare and serious complication of liver toxicity in previously healthy Grave’s disease (GD) patients after the treatment with radioactive iodine 131I (RAI). Case presentation We report the clinical, laboratory and pathologic findings of 2 cases of severe liver toxicity associated with the treatment with RAI in previously healthy patients with GD. Clinical examination and laboratory investigations excluded viral hepatitis, autoimmune hepatitis, granulomatous disease, primary biliary disease, extrahepatic biliary obstruction, and heart failure. Case 1: A previously healthy 52-years old man reportedly having a typical GD but following RAI treatment, concomitantly developed severe liver toxicity that required 1 week of treatment in hospital. Case 2: A previously healthy 34-years old woman is reported as having a typical GD but developed jaundice following RAI treatment that required several weeks of in hospital treatment in the hepato-biliary department. In both cases, the liver dysfunction resolved after intensive treatment with hepato-protective agents. In this report the therapeutic considerations as well as the pathogenetic possibilities are reviewed. Conclusion To the best of our knowledge, this is the first description of the association observed, which is rare but may be severe and should be considered in any case of thyrotoxicosis where a liver dysfunction develops after the treatment with radioactive iodine 131I. PMID:23497434

Previously Unrecognized Ornithuromorph Bird Diversity in the Early Cretaceous Changma Basin, Gansu Province, Northwestern China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ya-Ming; O'Connor, Jingmai K.; Li, Da-Qing; You, Hai-Lu

2013-01-01

Here we report on three new species of ornithuromorph birds from the Lower Cretaceous Xiagou Formation in the Changma Basin of Gansu Province, northwestern China: Yumenornis huangi gen. et sp. nov., Changmaornis houi gen. et sp. nov., and Jiuquanornis niui gen. et sp. nov.. The last of these is based on a previously published but unnamed specimen: GSGM-05-CM-021. Although incomplete, the specimens can be clearly distinguished from each other and from Gansus yumenensis Hou and Liu, 1984. Phylogenetic analysis resolves the three new taxa as basal ornithuromorphs. This study reveals previously unrecognized ornithuromorph diversity in the Changma avifauna, which is largely dominated by Gansus but with at least three other ornithuromorphs. Body mass estimates demonstrate that enantiornithines were much smaller than ornithuromorphs in the Changma avifauna. In addition, Changma enantiornithines preserve long and recurved pedal unguals, suggesting an arboreal lifestyle; in contrast, Changma ornithuromorphs tend to show terrestrial or even aquatic adaptions. Similar differences in body mass and ecology are also observed in the Jehol avifauna in northeastern China, suggesting niche partitioning between these two clades developed early in their evolutionary history. PMID:24147058

Bilateral orbital infarction and retinal detachment in a previously undiagnosed sickle cell hemoglobinopathy African child

Science.gov (United States)

Helen, Onakpoya Oluwatoyin; Ajite, K. O.; Oyelami, O. A.; Asaleye, C. M.; Adeoye, A. O.

2013-01-01

Bone infarction involving the orbit in sickle cell disease is not common. Bilateral orbital infarction in a previously undiagnosed sickle cell hemoglobinopathy has not been previously reported. In this report, we present a case of an 11-year-old previously undiagnosed sickle cell disease Nigerian girl with severe acute bilateral orbital infarction and retinal detachment to highlight that hemoglobinopathy induced orbital infarction should be considered in African children with acute onset proptosis with or without previous history of sickle cell hemoglobinopathy. PMID:23901183

A case report: mixed thrombus formation in a previously sutured right atrium.

Science.gov (United States)

Yunfei, Ling; Dongxu, Li; Shuhua, Luo; Yabo, Wang; San, Deep; Changping, Gan; Ke, Lin; Qi, An

2014-08-01

We describe the case of a 19-year-old Chinese woman who nine months prior underwent repair of an atrial septal defect and came to our hospital with a right atrial mass attached to the anterior wall of the right atrium on transthoracic echocardiography. Pathologic examination revealed the mass was a mixed-type thrombosis with some unusual organization, which previously was not described in literature.

Reported Energy and Cost Savings from the DOE ESPC Program: FY 2015

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Slattery, Bob S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2017-01-01

The objective of this work was to determine the realization rate of energy and cost savings from the Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) program based on information reported by the energy services companies (ESCOs) that are carrying out ESPC projects at federal sites. Information was extracted from 151 Measurement and Verification (M&V) reports to determine reported, estimated, and guaranteed cost savings and reported and estimated energy savings for the previous contract year. Because the quality of the reports varied, it was not possible to determine all of these parameters for each project.

Development of 1-Mile Walk Tests to Estimate Aerobic Fitness in Children

Science.gov (United States)

Sung, Hoyong; Collier, David N.; DuBose, Katrina D.; Kemble, C. David; Mahar, Matthew T.

2018-01-01

To examine the reliability and validity of 1-mile walk tests for estimation of aerobic fitness (VO[subscript 2max]) in 10- to 13-year-old children and to cross-validate previously published equations. Participants (n = 61) walked 1-mile on two different days. Self-reported physical activity, demographic variables, and aerobic fitness were used in…

Education and Synthetic Work-Life Earnings Estimates. American Community Survey Reports. ACS-14

Science.gov (United States)

Julian, Tiffany; Kominski, Robert

2011-01-01

The relationship between education and earnings is a long-analyzed topic of study. Generally, there is a strong belief that achievement of higher levels of education is a well established path to better jobs and better earnings. This report provides one view of the economic value of educational attainment by producing an estimate of the amount of…

Prediction of successful trial of labour in patients with a previous caesarean section

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shaheen, N.; Khalil, S.; Iftikhar, P.

2014-01-01

Objective: To determine the prediction rate of success in trial of labour after one previous caesarean section. Methods: The cross-sectional study was conducted at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Cantonment General Hospital, Rawalpindi, from January 1, 2012 to January 31, 2013, and comprised women with one previous Caesarean section and with single alive foetus at 37-41 weeks of gestation. Women with more than one Caesarean section, unknown site of uterine scar, bony pelvic deformity, placenta previa, intra-uterine growth restriction, deep transverse arrest in previous labour and non-reassuring foetal status at the time of admission were excluded. Intrapartum risk assessment included Bishop score at admission, rate of cervical dilatation and scar tenderness. SPSS 21 was used for statistical analysis. Results: Out of a total of 95 women, the trial was successful in 68 (71.6%). Estimated foetal weight and number of prior vaginal deliveries had a high predictive value for successful trial of labour after Caesarean section. Estimated foetal weight had an odds ratio of 0.46 (p<0.001), while number of prior vaginal deliveries had an odds ratio of 0.85 with (p=0.010). Other factors found to be predictive of successful trial included Bishop score at the time of admission (p<0.037) and rate of cervical dilatation in the first stage of labour (p<0.021). Conclusion: History of prior vaginal deliveries, higher Bishop score at the time of admission, rapid rate of cervical dilatation and lower estimated foetal weight were predictive of a successful trial of labour after Caesarean section. (author)

New estimates for human lung dimensions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kennedy, Christine; Sidavasan, Sivalal; Kramer, Gary

2008-01-01

Full text: The currently used lung dimensions in dosimetry were originally estimated in the 1940s from Army recruits. This study provides new estimates of lung dimensions based on images acquired from a sample from the general population (varying age and sex). Building accurate models, called phantoms, of the human lung requires that the spatial dimensions (length, width, and depth) be quantified, in addition to volume. Errors in dose estimates may result from improperly sized lungs as the counting efficiency of externally mounted detectors (e.g., in a lung counter) is dependent on the position of internally deposited radioactive material (i.e., the size of the lung). This study investigates the spatial dimensions of human lungs. Lung phantoms have previously been made in one of two sizes. The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Torso Phantom (LLNL) has deep, short lungs whose dimensions do not comply well with the data published in Report 23 (Reference Man) issued by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The Japanese Atomic Energy Research Institute Torso Phantom(JAERI), has longer, shallower lungs that also deviate from the ICRP values. However, careful examination of the ICRP recommended values shows that they are soft. In fact, they have been dropped from the ICRP's Report 89 which updates Report 23. Literature surveys have revealed a wealth of information on lung volume, but very little data on the spatial dimensions of human lungs. Better lung phantoms need to be constructed to more accurately represent a person so that dose estimates may be quantified more accurately in view of the new, lower, dose limits for occupationally exposed workers and the general public. Retrospective chest images of 60 patients who underwent imaging of the chest- lungs as part of their healthy persons occupational screening for lung disease were chosen. The chosen normal lung images represent the general population). Ages, gender and weight of the

2005 Status Report Savings Estimates for the ENERGY STAR(R)Voluntary Labeling Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; Sanchez, Marla

2006-03-07

ENERGY STAR(R) is a voluntary labeling program designed toidentify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices.Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and theU.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Star labels exist for more thanforty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating andcooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics,and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subsetof ENERGY STAR labeled products. We present estimates of the energy,dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2004, whatwe expect in 2005, and provide savings forecasts for two marketpenetration scenarios for the periods 2005 to 2010 and 2005 to 2020. Thetarget market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of futureENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goalsfor each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumptionof 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasersbuy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiencyproducts throughout the analysis period.

2007 Status Report: Savings Estimates for the ENERGY STAR(R)VoluntaryLabeling Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanchez, Marla; Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; Homan,Gregory K.

2007-03-23

ENERGY STAR(R) is a voluntary labeling program designed toidentify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices.Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and theU.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more thanthirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating andcooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics,and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subsetof ENERGY STAR labeled products. We present estimates of the energy,dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2006, whatwe expect in 2007, and provide savings forecasts for two marketpenetration scenarios for the periods 2007 to 2015 and 2007 to 2025. Thetarget market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of futureENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goalsfor each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumptionof 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasersbuy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiencyproducts throughout the analysis period.

Previous induced abortion among young women seeking abortion-related care in Kenya: a cross-sectional analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kabiru, Caroline W; Ushie, Boniface A; Mutua, Michael M; Izugbara, Chimaraoke O

2016-05-14

Unsafe abortion is a leading cause of death among young women aged 10-24 years in sub-Saharan Africa. Although having multiple induced abortions may exacerbate the risk for poor health outcomes, there has been minimal research on young women in this region who have multiple induced abortions. The objective of this study was therefore to assess the prevalence and correlates of reporting a previous induced abortion among young females aged 12-24 years seeking abortion-related care in Kenya. We used data on 1,378 young women aged 12-24 years who presented for abortion-related care in 246 health facilities in a nationwide survey conducted in 2012. Socio-demographic characteristics, reproductive and clinical histories, and physical examination assessment data were collected from women during a one-month data collection period using an abortion case capture form. Nine percent (n = 98) of young women reported a previous induced abortion prior to the index pregnancy for which they were receiving care. Statistically significant differences by previous history of induced abortion were observed for area of residence, religion and occupation at bivariate level. Urban dwellers and unemployed/other young women were more likely to report a previous induced abortion. A greater proportion of young women reporting a previous induced abortion stated that they were using a contraceptive method at the time of the index pregnancy (47 %) compared with those reporting no previous induced abortion (23 %). Not surprisingly, a greater proportion of young women reporting a previous induced abortion (82 %) reported their index pregnancy as unintended (not wanted at all or mistimed) compared with women reporting no previous induced abortion (64 %). Our study results show that about one in every ten young women seeking abortion-related care in Kenya reports a previous induced abortion. Comprehensive post-abortion care services targeting young women are needed. In particular, post

Estimating the cost of accidents and ill-health at work : a review of methodologies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Weerd, M. de; Tierney, R.; Duuren-Stuurman, B. van; Bertranou, E.

2014-01-01

What is the real price to pay for not investing in occupational safety and health? Many studies have previously tackled this question by evaluating the costs of poor or non-existent safety and health at work. This report reviews a selection of these studies and analyses the estimating methods used

Evaluation of factors affecting collection efficiency estimates of chinook salmon and steelhead smolts at McNary Dam, 1989. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stuehrenberg, L.; Smith, D.; Johnson, O.W.

1995-10-01

Populations of salmonid smolts migrating through the hydropower system on the Columbia River incur some rate of mortality at each dam. To set priorities on options to minimize losses and provide safe passage of the smolts at dams, estimates of smolt survival at each dam are necessary. Two methods have been developed to obtain these survival estimates: the direct and the indirect method. With the indirect method, a test group of fish is released upstream and a-control group is released downstream from the area of interest. With the direct method, a single release of fish above the area of interest is used, with subsequent recovery below the area of interest. In 1988, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) began a 2-year study at McNary Dam to address possible sources of variation associated with the direct method of obtaining survival estimates. Five study objectives were established to determine whether (1) fish from the Columbia and Snake Rivers mixed as they migrated to McNary Dam (release-location tests); (2) collection rates for Columbia and Snake River stocks were the same (river-of-origin tests); (3) test-group release timing influenced recovery rates (time-of-release tests); (4) a collection-rate bias existed from use of test fish previously guided and collected at the recovery site (tests of previously guided fish); and (5) recovery rates obtained with PIT-tagged fish were comparable to those previously obtained with freeze-branded fish (PIT-tag vs. freeze-brand technology)

Draft Air Pathway Report: Phase 1 of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1990-07-20

This report summarizes the air pathway portion of the first phase of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project, conducted by Battelle staff at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory under the direction of an independent Technical Steering Panel. The HEDR Project is estimating historical radiation doses that could have been received by populations near the Department of Energy's Hanford Site, in southeastern Washington State. Phase 1 of the air-pathway dose reconstruction sought to determine whether dose estimates could be calculated for populations in the 10 counties nearest the Hanford Site from atmospheric releases of iodine-131 from the site from 1944--1947. Phase 1 demonstrated the following: HEDR-calculated source-term estimates of iodine-131 releases to the atmosphere were within 20% of previously published estimates; calculated vegetation concentrations of iodine-131 agree well with previously published measurements; the highest of the Phase 1 preliminary dose estimates to the thyroid are consistent with independent, previously published estimates of doses to maximally exposed individuals; and relatively crude, previously published measurements of thyroid burdens for Hanford workers are in the range of average burdens that the HEDR model estimated for similar reference individuals'' for the period 1944--1947. 4 refs., 10 figs., 9 tabs.

The pathogenicity of genetic variants previously associated with left ventricular non-compaction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abbasi, Yeganeh; Jabbari, Javad; Jabbari, Reza

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Left ventricular non-compaction (LVNC) is a rare cardiomyopathy. Many genetic variants have been associated with LVNC. However, the number of the previous LVNC-associated variants that are common in the background population remains unknown. The aim of this study was to provide...... an updated list of previously reported LVNC-associated variants with biologic description and investigate the prevalence of LVNC variants in healthy general population to find false-positive LVNC-associated variants. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Human Gene Mutation Database and PubMed were systematically...... searched to identify all previously reported LVNC-associated variants. Thereafter, the Exome Sequencing Project (ESP) and the Exome Aggregation Consortium (ExAC), that both represent the background population, was searched for all variants. Four in silico prediction tools were assessed to determine...

Estimating Externalities of Hydro Fuel Cycles, Report 6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barnthouse, L.W.; Cada, G.F.; Cheng, M.-D.; Easterly, C.E.; Kroodsma, R.L.; Lee, R.; Shriner, D.S.; Tolbert, V.R.; Turner, R.S.

1994-12-01

There are three major objectives of this hydropower study: (1) to implement the methodological concepts that were developed in the background document (ORNL/RFF 1992) as a means of estimating the external costs and benefits of fuel cycles and, by so doing, to demonstrate their application to the hydroelectric fuel cycle (different fuel cycles have unique characteristics that need to be addressed in different ways); (2) to develop, given the time and resources, the best range of estimates of externalities associated with hydroelectric projects, using two benchmark projects at two reference sites in the US; and (3) to assess the state of the information that is available to support the estimation of externalities associated with the hydroelectric fuel cycle and, by so doing, to assist in identifying gaps in knowledge and in setting future research agendas. The main consideration in defining these objectives was a desire to have more information about externalities and a better method for estimating them. As set forth in the agreement between the US and the EC, the study is explicitly and intentionally not directed at any one audience. This study is about a methodology for estimating externalities. It is not about how to use estimates of externalities in a particular policy context.

Economic impact of feeding a phenylalanine-restricted diet to adults with previously untreated phenylketonuria.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, M C; Guest, J F

1999-02-01

The aim of the present study was to estimate the direct healthcare cost of managing adults with previously untreated phenylketonuria (PKU) for one year before any dietary restrictions and for the first year after a phenylalanine- (PHE-) restricted diet was introduced. The resource use and corresponding costs were estimated from medical records and interviews with health care professionals experienced in caring for adults with previously untreated PKU. The mean annual cost of caring for a client being fed an unrestricted diet was estimated to be 83 996 pound silver. In the first year after introducing a PHE-restricted diet, the mean annual cost was reduced by 20 647 pound silver to 63 348 pound silver as a result of a reduction in nursing time, hospitalizations, outpatient clinic visits and medications. However, the economic benefit of the diet depended on whether the clients were previously high or low users of nursing care. Nursing time was the key cost-driver, accounting for 79% of the cost of managing high users and 31% of the management cost for low users. In contrast, the acquisition cost of a PHE-restricted diet accounted for up to 6% of the cost for managing high users and 15% of the management cost for low users. Sensitivity analyses showed that introducing a PHE-restricted diet reduces the annual cost of care, provided that annual nursing time was reduced by more than 8% or more than 5% of clients respond to the diet. The clients showed fewer negative behaviours when being fed a PHE-restricted diet, which may account for the observed reduction in nursing time needed to care for these clients. In conclusion, feeding a PHE-restricted diet to adults with previously untreated PKU leads to economic benefits to the UK's National Health Service and society in general.

Dynamic estimator for determining operating conditions in an internal combustion engine

Science.gov (United States)

Hellstrom, Erik; Stefanopoulou, Anna; Jiang, Li; Larimore, Jacob

2016-01-05

Methods and systems are provided for estimating engine performance information for a combustion cycle of an internal combustion engine. Estimated performance information for a previous combustion cycle is retrieved from memory. The estimated performance information includes an estimated value of at least one engine performance variable. Actuator settings applied to engine actuators are also received. The performance information for the current combustion cycle is then estimated based, at least in part, on the estimated performance information for the previous combustion cycle and the actuator settings applied during the previous combustion cycle. The estimated performance information for the current combustion cycle is then stored to the memory to be used in estimating performance information for a subsequent combustion cycle.

Supplemental report on population estimates for Hanford high-level defense waste draft programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yandon, K.E.; Landstrom, D.K.

1980-06-01

Current and revised population projections based on those previously published in the document Population Distribution in 90-mile Radius of Hanford Meteorological Station and Projections to Year 2300 by Compass Sector and 10 Mile Radii are presented. In addition, there was a need to extend the population estimates out to 1000 and 10,000 years into the future to permit estimation of population radiation doses from accidents affecting the Hanford Facilities directly related to the defense high-level waste disposal alternatives. The methodology used in making the estimates is presented along with the detailed population matrix data required for performing the dose calculations. Although the near-term overall population projections are probably reasonably correct, no claim is made for the accuracy of the detailed data within each individual sector. Long-term estimates are made using reasonable assumptions about the growth potential and possibilities in the Hanford area. No claim of accuracy of these figures is made since they are so highly dependent on actions and conditions that are not predictable. For example, if a major climate change were to occur, the entire Hanford area might be uninhabited at 10,000 years in the future. To provide conservative dose estimates, it was assumed that the Hanford population will experience reasonable and continuous growth throughout the 10,000 year period

How to prevent type 2 diabetes in women with previous gestational diabetes?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Anne Louise Winkler; Terkildsen Maindal, Helle; Juul, Lise

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Women with previous gestational diabetes (GDM) have a seven times higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2DM) than women without. We aimed to review the evidence of effective behavioural interventions seeking to prevent T2DM in this high-risk group. METHODS: A systematic review...... of RCTs in several databases in March 2016. RESULTS: No specific intervention or intervention components were found superior. The pooled effect on diabetes incidence (four trials) was estimated to: -5.02 per 100 (95% CI: -9.24; -0.80). CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that intervention is superior...... to no intervention in prevention of T2DM among women with previous GDM....

Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matysiak, L.M.; Burns, M.L.

1994-03-01

This final report completes the Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Project, and includes the documentation of the waste management processes at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for hazardous, mixed, low-level radioactive solid and transuranic waste, development of the cost estimation model and a user reference manual. The ultimate goal of this effort was to develop an estimate of the life cycle costs for the aforementioned waste types. The Cost Estimation Model is a tool that can be used to calculate the costs of waste management at LANL for the aforementioned waste types, under several different scenarios. Each waste category at LANL is managed in a separate fashion, according to Department of Energy requirements and state and federal regulations. The cost of the waste management process for each waste category has not previously been well documented. In particular, the costs associated with the handling, treatment and storage of the waste have not been well understood. It is anticipated that greater knowledge of these costs will encourage waste generators at the Laboratory to apply waste minimization techniques to current operations. Expected benefits of waste minimization are a reduction in waste volume, decrease in liability and lower waste management costs

Best-basis estimates of solubility of selected radionuclides in sludges in Hanford single-shell tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

HARMSEN, R.W.

1999-01-01

The Hanford Defined Waste (HDW) model (Rev. 4) (Agnew et al. 1997) projects inventories (as of January 1, 1994) of 46 radionuclides in the Hanford Site underground waste storage tanks. To model the distribution of the 46 radionuclides among the 177 tanks, it was necessary for Agnew et al. to estimate the solubility of each radionuclide in the various waste types originally added to the single-shell tanks. Previous editions of the HDW model used single-point solubility estimates. The work described in this report was undertaken to provide more accurate estimates of the solubility of all 46 radionuclides in the various wastes

Best-basis estimates of solubility of selected radionuclides in sludges in Hanford single-shell tanks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

HARMSEN, R.W.

1999-02-24

The Hanford Defined Waste (HDW) model (Rev. 4) (Agnew et al. 1997) projects inventories (as of January 1, 1994) of 46 radionuclides in the Hanford Site underground waste storage tanks. To model the distribution of the 46 radionuclides among the 177 tanks, it was necessary for Agnew et al. to estimate the solubility of each radionuclide in the various waste types originally added to the single-shell tanks. Previous editions of the HDW model used single-point solubility estimates. The work described in this report was undertaken to provide more accurate estimates of the solubility of all 46 radionuclides in the various wastes.

CY 1995 radiation dose reconciliation report and resulting CY 1996 dose estimate for the 324 nuclear facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Landsman, S.D.; Thornhill, R.E.; Peterson, C.A.

1996-04-01

In this report, the dose estimate for CY 1995 is reconciled by month wih actual doses received. Results of the reconciliation were used to revise estimates of worker dose for CY 1996. Resulting dose estimate for the facility is also included. Support for two major programs (B-Cell Cleanout and Surveillance and Maintenance) accounts for most of the exposure received by workers in the faility. Most of the expousre received by workers comes from work in the Radiochemical Engineering Complex airlock. In spite of schedule and work scope changes during CY 1995, dose estimates were close to actual exposures received. A number of ALARA measures were taken throughout the year; exposure reduction due to those was 20.6 Man-Rem, a 28% reduction from the CY 1995 estimate. Baseline estimates for various tasks in the facility were used to compile the CY 1996 dose estimate of 45.4 Man-Rem; facility goal for CY 1996 is to reduce worker dose by 20%, to 36.3 Man-Rem

2003 status report savings estimates for the energy star(R)voluntary labeling program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; McWhinney, Marla

2004-11-09

ENERGY STAR(R) is a voluntary labeling program designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices. Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more than thirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating and cooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subset of ENERGY STAR program activities, focused primarily on labeled products. We present estimates of the energy, dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2002, what we expect in 2003, and provide savings forecasts for two market penetration scenarios for the period 2003 to 2020. The target market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of future ENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goals for each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumption of 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasers buy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiency products throughout the analysis period.

2002 status report: Savings estimates for the ENERGY STAR(R) voluntary labeling program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; McWhinney, Marla; Koomey, Jonathan

2003-03-03

ENERGY STAR [registered trademark] is a voluntary labeling program designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices. Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more than thirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating and cooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subset of ENERGY STAR program activities, focused primarily on labeled products. We present estimates of the energy, dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2001, what we expect in 2002, and provide savings forecasts for two market penetration scenarios for the period 2002 to 2020. The target market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of future ENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goals for each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumption of 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasers buy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiency products throughout the analysis period.

Estimating the effect of current, previous and never use of drugs in studies based on prescription registries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Lars Hougaard; Løkkegaard, Ellen; Andreasen, Anne Helms

2009-01-01

of this misclassification for analysing the risk of breast cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Prescription data were obtained from Danish Registry of Medicinal Products Statistics and we applied various methods to approximate treatment episodes. We analysed the duration of HT episodes to study the ability to identify......PURPOSE: Many studies which investigate the effect of drugs categorize the exposure variable into never, current, and previous use of the study drug. When prescription registries are used to make this categorization, the exposure variable possibly gets misclassified since the registries do...... not carry any information on the time of discontinuation of treatment.In this study, we investigated the amount of misclassification of exposure (never, current, previous use) to hormone therapy (HT) when the exposure variable was based on prescription data. Furthermore, we evaluated the significance...

7 CFR 1435.301 - Annual estimates and quarterly re-estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE LOANS, PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS SUGAR PROGRAM Flexible Marketing..., estimates, and re-estimates in this subpart will use available USDA statistics and estimates of production, consumption, and stocks, taking into account, where appropriate, data supplied in reports submitted pursuant...

Secondary recurrent miscarriage is associated with previous male birth.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Ooi, Poh Veh

2012-01-31

Secondary recurrent miscarriage (RM) is defined as three or more consecutive pregnancy losses after delivery of a viable infant. Previous reports suggest that a firstborn male child is associated with less favourable subsequent reproductive potential, possibly due to maternal immunisation against male-specific minor histocompatibility antigens. In a retrospective cohort study of 85 cases of secondary RM we aimed to determine if secondary RM was associated with (i) gender of previous child, maternal age, or duration of miscarriage history, and (ii) increased risk of pregnancy complications. Fifty-three women (62.0%; 53\\/85) gave birth to a male child prior to RM compared to 32 (38.0%; 32\\/85) who gave birth to a female child (p=0.002). The majority (91.7%; 78\\/85) had uncomplicated, term deliveries and normal birth weight neonates, with one quarter of the women previously delivered by Caesarean section. All had routine RM investigations and 19.0% (16\\/85) had an abnormal result. Fifty-seven women conceived again and 33.3% (19\\/57) miscarried, but there was no significant difference in failure rates between those with a previous male or female child (13\\/32 vs. 6\\/25, p=0.2). When patients with abnormal results were excluded, or when women with only one previous child were considered, there was still no difference in these rates. A previous male birth may be associated with an increased risk of secondary RM but numbers preclude concluding whether this increases recurrence risk. The suggested association with previous male birth provides a basis for further investigations at a molecular level.

Secondary recurrent miscarriage is associated with previous male birth.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Ooi, Poh Veh

2011-01-01

Secondary recurrent miscarriage (RM) is defined as three or more consecutive pregnancy losses after delivery of a viable infant. Previous reports suggest that a firstborn male child is associated with less favourable subsequent reproductive potential, possibly due to maternal immunisation against male-specific minor histocompatibility antigens. In a retrospective cohort study of 85 cases of secondary RM we aimed to determine if secondary RM was associated with (i) gender of previous child, maternal age, or duration of miscarriage history, and (ii) increased risk of pregnancy complications. Fifty-three women (62.0%; 53\\/85) gave birth to a male child prior to RM compared to 32 (38.0%; 32\\/85) who gave birth to a female child (p=0.002). The majority (91.7%; 78\\/85) had uncomplicated, term deliveries and normal birth weight neonates, with one quarter of the women previously delivered by Caesarean section. All had routine RM investigations and 19.0% (16\\/85) had an abnormal result. Fifty-seven women conceived again and 33.3% (19\\/57) miscarried, but there was no significant difference in failure rates between those with a previous male or female child (13\\/32 vs. 6\\/25, p=0.2). When patients with abnormal results were excluded, or when women with only one previous child were considered, there was still no difference in these rates. A previous male birth may be associated with an increased risk of secondary RM but numbers preclude concluding whether this increases recurrence risk. The suggested association with previous male birth provides a basis for further investigations at a molecular level.

Capital requirements for the transportation of energy materials: 1979 ARC estimates. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1979-09-28

TERA's estimates of capital requirements to transport natural gas, crude oil, petroleum products, and coal in the US by 1990 are presented. It is a continuation of a 1978 study (EAPA 5:3946) to perform a similar analysis on 1979 scenarios. Scenarios B, C, and D from the EIA's Mid-range Energy Forecasting Systems, as used in the 1979 Annual Report to Congress (ARC), were provided as a basis for the analysis and represent three alternative futures. Summaries of transportation investment requirements through 1990 are given for Scenarios B, C, and D. Total investment requirements for the three models (pipelines, railroads, waterways) and the three energy commodities (coal, petroleum, petroleum products, natural gas) are estimated to range between $35.3 and $42.7 billion by 1990 depending on the scenario.

Prospective evaluation of patient-reported quality-of-life outcomes following SBRT ± cetuximab for locally-recurrent, previously-irradiated head and neck cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vargo, John A.; Heron, Dwight E.; Ferris, Robert L.; Rwigema, Jean-Claude M.; Wegner, Rodney E.; Kalash, Ronny; Ohr, James; Kubicek, Greg J.; Burton, Steven

2012-01-01

Purpose: Stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) has emerged as a promising salvage strategy for unresectable, previously-irradiated recurrent squamous cell carcinomas of the head and neck (rSCCHN). Here-in, we report the first prospective evaluation of patient-reported quality-of-life (PR-QoL) following re-irradiation with SBRT ± cetuximab for rSCCHN. Materials and methods: From November 2004 to May 2011, 150 patients with unresectable, rSCCHN in a previously-irradiated field receiving >40 Gy were treated with SBRT to 40–50 Gy in 5 fractions ± concurrent cetuximab. PR-QoL was prospectively acquired using University of Washington Quality-of-Life Revised (UW-QoL-R). Results: Overall PR-QoL, health-related PR-QoL, and select domains commonly affected by re-irradiation progressively increase following an initial 1-month decline with statistically significant improvements noted in swallowing (p = 0.025), speech (p = 0.017), saliva (p = 0.041), activity (p = 0.032) and recreation (p = 0.039). Conclusions: Especially for patients surviving >1-year, improved tumor control associated with SBRT re-irradiation may ameliorate decreased PR-QoL resulting from rSCCHN. These improvements in PR-QoL transcend all measured domains in a validated PR-QoL assessment tool independent of age, use of cetuximab, tumor volume, and interval since prior irradiation.

A Bayesian approach for estimating under-reported dengue incidence with a focus on non-linear associations between climate and dengue in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharmin, Sifat; Glass, Kathryn; Viennet, Elvina; Harley, David

2018-04-01

Determining the relation between climate and dengue incidence is challenging due to under-reporting of disease and consequent biased incidence estimates. Non-linear associations between climate and incidence compound this. Here, we introduce a modelling framework to estimate dengue incidence from passive surveillance data while incorporating non-linear climate effects. We estimated the true number of cases per month using a Bayesian generalised linear model, developed in stages to adjust for under-reporting. A semi-parametric thin-plate spline approach was used to quantify non-linear climate effects. The approach was applied to data collected from the national dengue surveillance system of Bangladesh. The model estimated that only 2.8% (95% credible interval 2.7-2.8) of all cases in the capital Dhaka were reported through passive case reporting. The optimal mean monthly temperature for dengue transmission is 29℃ and average monthly rainfall above 15 mm decreases transmission. Our approach provides an estimate of true incidence and an understanding of the effects of temperature and rainfall on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Statistical methods to enhance reporting of Aboriginal Australians in routine hospital records using data linkage affect estimates of health disparities.

Science.gov (United States)

Randall, Deborah A; Lujic, Sanja; Leyland, Alastair H; Jorm, Louisa R

2013-10-01

To investigate under-recording of Aboriginal people in hospital data from New South Wales (NSW), Australia, define algorithms for enhanced reporting, and examine the impact of these algorithms on estimated disparities in cardiovascular and injury outcomes. NSW Admitted Patient Data were linked with NSW mortality data (2001-2007). Associations with recording of Aboriginal status were investigated using multilevel logistic regression. The number of admissions reported as Aboriginal according to six algorithms was compared with the original (unenhanced) Aboriginal status variable. Age-standardised admission, and 30- and 365-day mortality ratios were estimated for cardiovascular disease and injury. Sixty per cent of the variation in recording of Aboriginal status was due to the hospital of admission, with poorer recording in private and major city hospitals. All enhancement algorithms increased the number of admissions reported as Aboriginal, from between 4.1% and 37.8%. Admission and mortality ratios varied markedly between algorithms, with less strict algorithms resulting in higher admission rate ratios, but generally lower mortality rate ratios, particularly for cardiovascular disease. The choice of enhancement algorithm has an impact on the number of people reported as Aboriginal and on estimated outcome ratios. The influence of the hospital on recording of Aboriginal status highlights the importance of continued efforts to improve data collection. Estimates of Aboriginal health disparity can change depending on how Aboriginal status is reported. Sensitivity analyses using a number of algorithms are recommended. © 2013 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2013 Public Health Association of Australia.

Comparison of known food weights with image-based portion-size automated estimation and adolescents' self-reported portion size.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Christina D; Chae, Junghoon; Schap, TusaRebecca E; Kerr, Deborah A; Delp, Edward J; Ebert, David S; Boushey, Carol J

2012-03-01

Diet is a critical element of diabetes self-management. An emerging area of research is the use of images for dietary records using mobile telephones with embedded cameras. These tools are being designed to reduce user burden and to improve accuracy of portion-size estimation through automation. The objectives of this study were to (1) assess the error of automatically determined portion weights compared to known portion weights of foods and (2) to compare the error between automation and human. Adolescents (n = 15) captured images of their eating occasions over a 24 h period. All foods and beverages served were weighed. Adolescents self-reported portion sizes for one meal. Image analysis was used to estimate portion weights. Data analysis compared known weights, automated weights, and self-reported portions. For the 19 foods, the mean ratio of automated weight estimate to known weight ranged from 0.89 to 4.61, and 9 foods were within 0.80 to 1.20. The largest error was for lettuce and the most accurate was strawberry jam. The children were fairly accurate with portion estimates for two foods (sausage links, toast) using one type of estimation aid and two foods (sausage links, scrambled eggs) using another aid. The automated method was fairly accurate for two foods (sausage links, jam); however, the 95% confidence intervals for the automated estimates were consistently narrower than human estimates. The ability of humans to estimate portion sizes of foods remains a problem and a perceived burden. Errors in automated portion-size estimation can be systematically addressed while minimizing the burden on people. Future applications that take over the burden of these processes may translate to better diabetes self-management. © 2012 Diabetes Technology Society.

Does parental divorce moderate the heritability of body dissatisfaction? An extension of previous gene-environment interaction effects.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connor, Shannon M; Klump, Kelly L; VanHuysse, Jessica L; McGue, Matt; Iacono, William

2016-02-01

Previous research suggests that parental divorce moderates genetic influences on body dissatisfaction. Specifically, the heritability of body dissatisfaction is higher in children of divorced versus intact families, suggesting possible gene-environment interaction effects. However, prior research is limited to a single, self-reported measure of body dissatisfaction. The primary aim of this study was to examine whether these findings extend to a different dimension of body dissatisfaction: body image perceptions. Participants were 1,534 female twins from the Minnesota Twin Family Study, aged 16-20 years. The Body Rating Scale (BRS) was used to assess body image perceptions. Although BRS scores were heritable in twins from divorced and intact families, the heritability estimates in the divorced group were not significantly greater than estimates in the intact group. However, there were differences in nonshared environmental effects, where the magnitude of these environmental influences was larger in the divorced as compared with the intact families. Different dimensions of body dissatisfaction (i.e., negative self-evaluation versus body image perceptions) may interact with environmental risk, such as parental divorce, in discrete ways. Future research should examine this possibility and explore differential gene-environment interactions using diverse measures. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Haemophilus influenzae type f meningitis in a previously healthy boy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ronit, Andreas; Berg, Ronan M G; Bruunsgaard, Helle

2013-01-01

Non-serotype b strains of Haemophilus influenzae are extremely rare causes of acute bacterial meningitis in immunocompetent individuals. We report a case of acute bacterial meningitis in a 14-year-old boy, who was previously healthy and had been immunised against H influenzae serotype b (Hib...

Estimation of the defect detection probability for ultrasonic tests on thick sections steel weldments. Technical report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, D.P.; Toomay, T.L.; Davis, C.S.

1979-02-01

An inspection uncertainty analysis of published PVRC Specimen 201 data is reported to obtain an estimate of the probability of recording an indication as a function of imperfection height for ASME Section XI Code ultrasonic inspections of the nuclear reactor vessel plate seams and to demonstrate the advantages of inspection uncertainty analysis over conventional detection/nondetection counting analysis. This analysis found the probability of recording a significant defect with an ASME Section XI Code ultrasonic inspection to be very high, if such a defect should exist in the plate seams of a nuclear reactor vessel. For a one-inch high crack, for example, this analysis gives a best estimate recording probability of .985 and a 90% lower confidence bound recording probabilty of .937. It is also shown that inspection uncertainty analysis gives more accurate estimates and gives estimates over a much greater flaw size range than is possible with conventional analysis. There is reason to believe that the estimation procedure used is conservative, the estimation is based on data generated several years ago, on very small defects, in an environment that is different from the actual in-service inspection environment

Methods for estimating drought streamflow probabilities for Virginia streams

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Samuel H.

2014-01-01

Maximum likelihood logistic regression model equations used to estimate drought flow probabilities for Virginia streams are presented for 259 hydrologic basins in Virginia. Winter streamflows were used to estimate the likelihood of streamflows during the subsequent drought-prone summer months. The maximum likelihood logistic regression models identify probable streamflows from 5 to 8 months in advance. More than 5 million streamflow daily values collected over the period of record (January 1, 1900 through May 16, 2012) were compiled and analyzed over a minimum 10-year (maximum 112-year) period of record. The analysis yielded the 46,704 equations with statistically significant fit statistics and parameter ranges published in two tables in this report. These model equations produce summer month (July, August, and September) drought flow threshold probabilities as a function of streamflows during the previous winter months (November, December, January, and February). Example calculations are provided, demonstrating how to use the equations to estimate probable streamflows as much as 8 months in advance.

Kidnapping Detection and Recognition in Previous Unknown Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Tian

2017-01-01

Full Text Available An unaware event referred to as kidnapping makes the estimation result of localization incorrect. In a previous unknown environment, incorrect localization result causes incorrect mapping result in Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM by kidnapping. In this situation, the explored area and unexplored area are divided to make the kidnapping recovery difficult. To provide sufficient information on kidnapping, a framework to judge whether kidnapping has occurred and to identify the type of kidnapping with filter-based SLAM is proposed. The framework is called double kidnapping detection and recognition (DKDR by performing two checks before and after the “update” process with different metrics in real time. To explain one of the principles of DKDR, we describe a property of filter-based SLAM that corrects the mapping result of the environment using the current observations after the “update” process. Two classical filter-based SLAM algorithms, Extend Kalman Filter (EKF SLAM and Particle Filter (PF SLAM, are modified to show that DKDR can be simply and widely applied in existing filter-based SLAM algorithms. Furthermore, a technique to determine the adapted thresholds of metrics in real time without previous data is presented. Both simulated and experimental results demonstrate the validity and accuracy of the proposed method.

Procedure for estimating facility decommissioning costs for non-fuel-cycle nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Short, S.M.

1988-01-01

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff has been reappraising its regulatory position relative to the decommissioning of nuclear facilities over the last several years. Approximately 30 reports covering the technology, safety, and costs of decommissioning reference nuclear facilities have been published during this period in support of this effort. One of these reports, Technology, Safety, and Costs of Decommissioning Reference Non-Fuel-Cycle Nuclear Facilities (NUREG/CR-1754), was published in 1981 and was felt by the NRC staff to be outdated. The Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) was asked by the NRC staff to revise the information provided in this report to reflect the latest information on decommissioning technology and costs and publish the results as an addendum to the previous report. During the course of this study, the NRC staff also asked that PNL provide a simplified procedure for estimating decommissioning costs of non-fuel-cycle nuclear facilities. The purpose being to provide NRC staff with the means to easily generate their own estimate of decommissioning costs for a given facility for comparison against a licensee's submittal. This report presents the procedure developed for use by NRC staff

Validity of parent-reported weight and height of preschool children measured at home or estimated without home measurement: a validation study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cox Bianca

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Parental reports are often used in large-scale surveys to assess children's body mass index (BMI. Therefore, it is important to know to what extent these parental reports are valid and whether it makes a difference if the parents measured their children's weight and height at home or whether they simply estimated these values. The aim of this study is to compare the validity of parent-reported height, weight and BMI values of preschool children (3-7 y-old, when measured at home or estimated by parents without actual measurement. Methods The subjects were 297 Belgian preschool children (52.9% male. Participation rate was 73%. A questionnaire including questions about height and weight of the children was completed by the parents. Nurses measured height and weight following standardised procedures. International age- and sex-specific BMI cut-off values were employed to determine categories of weight status and obesity. Results On the group level, no important differences in accuracy of reported height, weight and BMI were identified between parent-measured or estimated values. However, for all 3 parameters, the correlations between parental reports and nurse measurements were higher in the group of children whose body dimensions were measured by the parents. Sensitivity for underweight and overweight/obesity were respectively 73% and 47% when parents measured their child's height and weight, and 55% and 47% when parents estimated values without measurement. Specificity for underweight and overweight/obesity were respectively 82% and 97% when parents measured the children, and 75% and 93% with parent estimations. Conclusions Diagnostic measures were more accurate when parents measured their child's weight and height at home than when those dimensions were based on parental judgements. When parent-reported data on an individual level is used, the accuracy could be improved by encouraging the parents to measure weight and height

Estimating Price Elasticity using Market-Level Appliance Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fujita, K. Sydny [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2015-08-04

This report provides and update to and expansion upon our 2008 LBNL report “An Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Appliances,” in which we estimated an average relative price elasticity of -0.34 for major household appliances (Dale and Fujita 2008). Consumer responsiveness to price change is a key component of energy efficiency policy analysis; these policies influence consumer purchases through price both explicitly and implicitly. However, few studies address appliance demand elasticity in the U.S. market and public data sources are generally insufficient for rigorous estimation. Therefore, analysts have relied on a small set of outdated papers focused on limited appliance types, assuming long-term elasticities estimated for other durables (e.g., vehicles) decades ago are applicable to current and future appliance purchasing behavior. We aim to partially rectify this problem in the context of appliance efficiency standards by revisiting our previous analysis, utilizing data released over the last ten years and identifying additional estimates of durable goods price elasticities in the literature. Reviewing the literature, we find the following ranges of market-level price elasticities: -0.14 to -0.42 for appliances; -0.30 to -1.28 for automobiles; -0.47 to -2.55 for other durable goods. Brand price elasticities are substantially higher for these product groups, with most estimates -2.0 or more elastic. Using market-level shipments, sales value, and efficiency level data for 1989-2009, we run various iterations of a log-log regression model, arriving at a recommended range of short run appliance price elasticity between -0.4 and -0.5, with a default value of -0.45.

Do children perceive postural constraints when estimating reach or action planning?

Science.gov (United States)

Gabbard, Carl; Cordova, Alberto; Lee, Sunghan

2009-03-01

Estimation of whether an object is reachable from a specific body position constitutes an important aspect in effective motor planning. Researchers who estimate reachability by way of motor imagery with adults consistently report the tendency to overestimate, with some evidence of a postural effect (postural stability hypothesis). This idea suggests that perceived reaching limits depend on an individual's perceived postural constraints. Based on previous work with adults, the authors expected a significant postural effect with the Reach 2 condition, as evidenced by reduced overestimation. Furthermore, the authors hypothesized that the postural effect would be greater in younger children. They then tested these propositions among children aged 7, 9, and 11 years by asking them to estimate reach while seated (Reach 1) and in the more demanding posture of standing on 1 foot and leaning forward (Reach 2). Results indicated no age or condition difference, therefore providing no support for a postural effect. When the authors compared these data to a published report of adults, a developmental difference emerged. That is, adults recognize the perceived postural constraint of the standing position resulting in under- rather than overestimation, as displayed in the seated condition. Although preliminary, these observations suggest that estimates of reach (action planning) continue to be refined between late childhood and young adulthood.

Source of parental reports of child height and weight during phone interviews and influence on obesity prevalence estimates among children aged 3-17 years.

Science.gov (United States)

Skinner, Asheley Cockrell; Miles, Donna; Perrin, Eliana M; Coyne-Beasley, Tamera; Ford, Carol

2013-01-01

We compared parental reports of children's height and weight when the values were estimated vs. parent-measured to determine how these reports influence the estimated prevalence of childhood obesity. In the 2007 and 2008 North Carolina Child Health Assessment and Monitoring Program surveys, parents reported height and weight for children aged 3-17 years. When parents reported the values were not measured (by doctor, school, or home), they were asked to measure their child and were later called back. We categorized body mass index status using standard CDC definitions, and we used Chi-square tests and the Stuart-Maxwell test of marginal homogeneity to examine reporting differences. About 80% (n=509) of the 638 parents who reported an unmeasured height and/or weight participated in a callback and provided updated measures. Children originally classified as obese were subsequently classified as obese (67%), overweight (13%), and healthy weight (19%). An estimated 28% of younger children (children (aged ≥10 years) were reclassified on callback. Having parents who guessed the height and weight of their children and then reported updated values did not significantly change the overall population estimates of obesity. Our findings demonstrate that using parent-reported height and weight values may be sufficient to provide reasonable estimates of obesity prevalence. Systematically asking the source of height and weight information may help improve how it is applied to research of the prevalence of childhood obesity when gold-standard measurements are not available.

Estimation of absorbed dose by newborn patients subjected to chest radiographs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunick, Ana P.; Schelin, Hugo R.; Denyak, Valeriy

2016-01-01

The aim of this study is to present an estimate of the effective dose received by newborn patients hospitalized in NICU and subjected to X-ray examinations of the chest in the AP projection. Initially, were followed examinations chest X-rays performed on newborn patients and subsequently, simulated in a newborn simulator object. The ESAK values obtained by TLDs were used to calculate the effective dose obtained at each examination by Caldose_X software. The estimated values for the effective dose in the simulated exams in this study range from 2,3μSv the 10,7μSv. The results achieved are, generally, inferior to those reported for similar previous studies. (author)

Estimation of measurement variances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1981-01-01

In the previous two sessions, it was assumed that the measurement error variances were known quantities when the variances of the safeguards indices were calculated. These known quantities are actually estimates based on historical data and on data generated by the measurement program. Session 34 discusses how measurement error parameters are estimated for different situations. The various error types are considered. The purpose of the session is to enable participants to: (1) estimate systematic error variances from standard data; (2) estimate random error variances from data as replicate measurement data; (3) perform a simple analysis of variances to characterize the measurement error structure when biases vary over time

Estimating the Cold War mortgage: The 1995 baseline environmental management report. Volume 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-03-01

This is the first annual report on the activities and potentials costs required to address the waste, contamination, and surplus nuclear facilities that are the responsibility of the Department of Energy's Environmental Management program. The Department's Office of Environmental Management, established in 1989, manages one of the largest environmental programs in the world--with more than 130 sites and facilities in over 30 States and territories. The primary focus of the program is to reduce health and safety risks from radioactive waste and contamination resulting from the production, development, and testing of nuclear weapons. The program also is responsible for the environmental legacy from, and ongoing waste management for, nuclear energy research and development, and basic science research. In an attempt to better oversee this effort, Congress required the Secretary of Energy to submit a Baseline Environmental Management Report with annual updates. The 1995 Baseline Environmental Management Report provides life-cycle cost estimates, tentative schedules, and projected activities necessary to complete the Environmental Management program

Feasibility of including fugitive PM-10 emissions estimates in the EPA emissions trends report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnard, W.; Carlson, P.

1990-09-01

The report describes the results of Part 2 of a two part study. Part 2 was to evaluate the feasibility of developing regional emission trends for PM-10. Part 1 was to evaluate the feasibility of developing VOC emission trends, on a regional and temporal basis. These studies are part of the effort underway to improve the national emission trends. Part 1 is presented in a separate report. The categories evaluated for the feasibility of developing regional emissions estimates were: unpaved roads, paved roads, wind erosion, agricultural tilling, construction activities, feedlots, burning, landfills, mining and quarrying unpaved parking lots, unpaved airstrips and storage piles

Columbia River pathway report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-07-01

This report summarizes the river-pathway portion of the first phase of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project. The HEDR Project is estimating radiation doses that could have been received by the public from the Department of Energy's Hanford Site, in southeastern Washington State. Phase 1 of the river-pathway dose reconstruction effort sought to determine whether dose estimates could be calculated for populations in the area from above the Hanford Site at Priest Rapids Dam to below the site at McNary Dam from January 1964 to December 1966. Of the potential sources of radionuclides from the river, fish consumption was the most important. Doses from drinking water were lower at Pasco than at Richland and lower at Kennewick than at Pasco. The median values of preliminary dose estimates calculated by HEDR are similar to independent, previously published estimates of average doses to Richland residents. Later phases of the HEDR Project will address dose estimates for periods other than 1964--1966 and for populations downstream of McNary Dam. 17 refs., 19 figs., 1 tab

Subsequent childbirth after a previous traumatic birth.

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, Cheryl Tatano; Watson, Sue

2010-01-01

Nine percent of new mothers in the United States who participated in the Listening to Mothers II Postpartum Survey screened positive for meeting the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition criteria for posttraumatic stress disorder after childbirth. Women who have had a traumatic birth experience report fewer subsequent children and a longer length of time before their second baby. Childbirth-related posttraumatic stress disorder impacts couples' physical relationship, communication, conflict, emotions, and bonding with their children. The purpose of this study was to describe the meaning of women's experiences of a subsequent childbirth after a previous traumatic birth. Phenomenology was the research design used. An international sample of 35 women participated in this Internet study. Women were asked, "Please describe in as much detail as you can remember your subsequent pregnancy, labor, and delivery following your previous traumatic birth." Colaizzi's phenomenological data analysis approach was used to analyze the stories of the 35 women. Data analysis yielded four themes: (a) riding the turbulent wave of panic during pregnancy; (b) strategizing: attempts to reclaim their body and complete the journey to motherhood; (c) bringing reverence to the birthing process and empowering women; and (d) still elusive: the longed-for healing birth experience. Subsequent childbirth after a previous birth trauma has the potential to either heal or retraumatize women. During pregnancy, women need permission and encouragement to grieve their prior traumatic births to help remove the burden of their invisible pain.

Model-based estimation with boundary side information or boundary regularization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiao, P.C.; Rogers, W.L.; Fessler, J.A.; Clinthorne, N.H.; Hero, A.O.

1994-01-01

The authors have previously developed a model-based strategy for joint estimation of myocardial perfusion and boundaries using ECT (Emission Computed Tomography). The authors have also reported difficulties with boundary estimation in low contrast and low count rate situations. In this paper, the authors propose using boundary side information (obtainable from high resolution MRI and CT images) or boundary regularization to improve both perfusion and boundary estimation in these situations. To fuse boundary side information into the emission measurements, the authors formulate a joint log-likelihood function to include auxiliary boundary measurements as well as ECT projection measurements. In addition, the authors introduce registration parameters to align auxiliary boundary measurements with ECT measurements and jointly estimate these parameters with other parameters of interest from the composite measurements. In simulated PET O-15 water myocardial perfusion studies using a simplified model, the authors show that the joint estimation improves perfusion estimation performance and gives boundary alignment accuracy of <0.5 mm even at 0.2 million counts. The authors implement boundary regularization through formulating a penalized log-likelihood function. The authors also demonstrate in simulations that simultaneous regularization of the epicardial boundary and myocardial thickness gives comparable perfusion estimation accuracy with the use of boundary side information

Estimation of intermediate grade uranium resources. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lambie, F.W.; Kendall, G.R.; Klahn, L.J.; Davis, J.C.; Harbaugh, J.W.

1980-12-01

The purpose of this project is to analyze the technique currently used by DOE to estimate intermediate grade uranium (0.01 to 0.05% U 3 O 8 ) and, if possible, suggest alternatives to improve the accuracy and precision of the estimate. There are three principal conclusions resulting from this study. They relate to the quantity, distribution and sampling of intermediate grade uranium. While the results of this study must be validated further, they indicate that DOE may be underestimating intermediate level reserves by 20 to 30%. Plots of grade of U 3 O 8 versus tonnage of ore and tonnage U 3 O 8 indicate grade-tonnage relationships that are essentially log-linear, at least down to 0.01% U 3 O 8 . Though this is not an unexpected finding, it may provide a technique for reducing the uncertainty of intermediate grade endowment. The results of this study indicate that a much lower drill hole density is necessary for DOE to estimate uranium resources than for a mining company to calculate ore resources. Though errors in local estimates will occur, they will tend to cancel over the entire deposit

Savings estimates for the ENERGY STAR (registered trademark) voluntary labeling program: 2001 status report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; Mahajan, Akshay; Koomey, Jonathan G.

2002-02-15

ENERGY STAR(Registered Trademark) is a voluntary labeling program designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices. Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more than thirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating and cooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subset of ENERGY STAR program activities, focused primarily on labeled products. We present estimates of the energy, dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2000, what we expect in 2001, and provide savings forecasts for two market penetration scenarios for the period 2001 to 2020. The target market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of future ENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goals for each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumption of 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasers buy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiency products throughout the analysis period.

77 FR 44113 - Airworthiness Directives; Gulfstream Aerospace LP (Type Certificate Previously Held by Israel...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-07-27

... Airworthiness Directives; Gulfstream Aerospace LP (Type Certificate Previously Held by Israel Aircraft... Aerospace LP (Type Certificate previously held by Israel Aircraft Industries, Ltd.) Model Gulfstream G150... to the manufacturer. This action was prompted by a report from the Civil Aviation Authority of Israel...

Estimating the burden of paratyphoid a in Asia and Africa.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael B Arndt

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Despite the increasing availability of typhoid vaccine in many regions, global estimates of mortality attributable to enteric fever appear stable. While both Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi and serovar Paratyphi (S. Paratyphi cause enteric fever, limited data exist estimating the burden of S. Paratyphi, particularly in Asia and Africa. We performed a systematic review of both English and Chinese-language databases to estimate the regional burden of paratyphoid within Africa and Asia. Distinct from previous reviews of the topic, we have presented two separate measures of burden; both incidence and proportion of enteric fever attributable to paratyphoid. Included articles reported laboratory-confirmed Salmonella serovar classification, provided clear methods on sampling strategy, defined the age range of participants, and specified the time period of the study. A total of 64 full-text articles satisfied inclusion criteria and were included in the qualitative synthesis. Paratyphoid A was commonly identified as a cause of enteric fever throughout Asia. The highest incidence estimates in Asia came from China; four studies estimated incidence rates of over 150 cases/100,000 person-years. Paratyphoid A burden estimates from Africa were extremely limited and with the exception of Nigeria, few population or hospital-based studies from Africa reported significant Paratyphoid A burden. While significant gaps exist in the existing population-level estimates of paratyphoid burden in Asia and Africa, available data suggest that paratyphoid A is a significant cause of enteric fever in Asia. The high variability in documented incidence and proportion estimates of paratyphoid suggest considerable geospatial variability in the burden of paratyphoid fever. Additional efforts to monitor enteric fever at the population level will be necessary in order to accurately quantify the public health threat posed by S. Paratyphi A, and to improve the prevention

Global Burden of Leptospirosis: Estimated in Terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul R Torgerson

Full Text Available Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis can cause life-threatening disease, there is no global burden of disease estimate in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs available.We utilised the results of a parallel publication that reported global estimates of morbidity and mortality due to leptospirosis. We estimated Years of Life Lost (YLLs from age and gender stratified mortality rates. Years of Life with Disability (YLDs were developed from a simple disease model indicating likely sequelae. DALYs were estimated from the sum of YLLs and YLDs. The study suggested that globally approximately 2.90 million DALYs are lost per annum (UIs 1.25-4.54 million from the approximately annual 1.03 million cases reported previously. Males are predominantly affected with an estimated 2.33 million DALYs (UIs 0.98-3.69 or approximately 80% of the total burden. For comparison, this is over 70% of the global burden of cholera estimated by GBD 2010. Tropical regions of South and South-east Asia, Western Pacific, Central and South America, and Africa had the highest estimated leptospirosis disease burden.Leptospirosis imparts a significant health burden worldwide, which approach or exceed those encountered for a number of other zoonotic and neglected tropical diseases. The study findings indicate that highest burden estimates occur in resource-poor tropical countries, which include regions of Africa where the burden of leptospirosis has been under-appreciated and possibly misallocated to other febrile illnesses such as malaria.

Prediction of RNA secondary structure using generalized centroid estimators.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamada, Michiaki; Kiryu, Hisanori; Sato, Kengo; Mituyama, Toutai; Asai, Kiyoshi

2009-02-15

Recent studies have shown that the methods for predicting secondary structures of RNAs on the basis of posterior decoding of the base-pairing probabilities has an advantage with respect to prediction accuracy over the conventionally utilized minimum free energy methods. However, there is room for improvement in the objective functions presented in previous studies, which are maximized in the posterior decoding with respect to the accuracy measures for secondary structures. We propose novel estimators which improve the accuracy of secondary structure prediction of RNAs. The proposed estimators maximize an objective function which is the weighted sum of the expected number of the true positives and that of the true negatives of the base pairs. The proposed estimators are also improved versions of the ones used in previous works, namely CONTRAfold for secondary structure prediction from a single RNA sequence and McCaskill-MEA for common secondary structure prediction from multiple alignments of RNA sequences. We clarify the relations between the proposed estimators and the estimators presented in previous works, and theoretically show that the previous estimators include additional unnecessary terms in the evaluation measures with respect to the accuracy. Furthermore, computational experiments confirm the theoretical analysis by indicating improvement in the empirical accuracy. The proposed estimators represent extensions of the centroid estimators proposed in Ding et al. and Carvalho and Lawrence, and are applicable to a wide variety of problems in bioinformatics. Supporting information and the CentroidFold software are available online at: http://www.ncrna.org/software/centroidfold/.

Dental age estimation: the role of probability estimates at the 10 year threshold.

Science.gov (United States)

Lucas, Victoria S; McDonald, Fraser; Neil, Monica; Roberts, Graham

2014-08-01

The use of probability at the 18 year threshold has simplified the reporting of dental age estimates for emerging adults. The availability of simple to use widely available software has enabled the development of the probability threshold for individual teeth in growing children. Tooth development stage data from a previous study at the 10 year threshold were reused to estimate the probability of developing teeth being above or below the 10 year thresh-hold using the NORMDIST Function in Microsoft Excel. The probabilities within an individual subject are averaged to give a single probability that a subject is above or below 10 years old. To test the validity of this approach dental panoramic radiographs of 50 female and 50 male children within 2 years of the chronological age were assessed with the chronological age masked. Once the whole validation set of 100 radiographs had been assessed the masking was removed and the chronological age and dental age compared. The dental age was compared with chronological age to determine whether the dental age correctly or incorrectly identified a validation subject as above or below the 10 year threshold. The probability estimates correctly identified children as above or below on 94% of occasions. Only 2% of the validation group with a chronological age of less than 10 years were assigned to the over 10 year group. This study indicates the very high accuracy of assignment at the 10 year threshold. Further work at other legally important age thresholds is needed to explore the value of this approach to the technique of age estimation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Report on some methods of determining the state of convergence of Monte Carlo risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orford, J.L.; Hufton, D.; Johnson, K.

1991-05-01

The Department of the Environment is developing a methodology for assessing potential sites for the disposal of low and intermediate level radioactive wastes. Computer models are used to simulate the groundwater transport of radioactive materials from a disposal facility back to man. Monte Carlo methods are being employed to conduct a probabilistic risk assessment (pra) of potential sites. The models calculate time histories of annual radiation dose to the critical group population. The annual radiation dose to the critical group in turn specifies the annual individual risk. The distribution of dose is generally highly skewed and many simulation runs are required to predict the level of confidence in the risk estimate i.e. to determine whether the risk estimate is converged. This report describes some statistical methods for determining the state of convergence of the risk estimate. The methods described include the Shapiro-Wilk test, calculation of skewness and kurtosis and normal probability plots. A method for forecasting the number of samples needed before the risk estimate is converged is presented. Three case studies were conducted to examine the performance of some of these techniques. (author)

Power system state estimation using an iteratively reweighted least squares method for sequential L{sub 1}-regression

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jabr, R.A. [Electrical, Computer and Communication Engineering Department, Notre Dame University, P.O. Box 72, Zouk Mikhael, Zouk Mosbeh (Lebanon)

2006-02-15

This paper presents an implementation of the least absolute value (LAV) power system state estimator based on obtaining a sequence of solutions to the L{sub 1}-regression problem using an iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS{sub L1}) method. The proposed implementation avoids reformulating the regression problem into standard linear programming (LP) form and consequently does not require the use of common methods of LP, such as those based on the simplex method or interior-point methods. It is shown that the IRLS{sub L1} method is equivalent to solving a sequence of linear weighted least squares (LS) problems. Thus, its implementation presents little additional effort since the sparse LS solver is common to existing LS state estimators. Studies on the termination criteria of the IRLS{sub L1} method have been carried out to determine a procedure for which the proposed estimator is more computationally efficient than a previously proposed non-linear iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS) estimator. Indeed, it is revealed that the proposed method is a generalization of the previously reported IRLS estimator, but is based on more rigorous theory. (author)

Previous experience of family violence and intimate partner violence in pregnancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Ludermir, Ana Bernarda; Araújo, Thália Velho Barreto de; Valongueiro, Sandra Alves; Muniz, Maria Luísa Corrêa; Silva, Elisabete Pereira

2017-01-01

To estimate differential associations between the exposure to violence in the family of origin and victimization and perpetration of intimate partner violence in pregnancy. A nested case-control study was carried out within a cohort study with 1,120 pregnant women aged 18-49 years old, who were registered in the Family Health Strategy of the city of Recife, State of Pernambuco, Brazil, between 2005 and 2006. The cases were the 233 women who reported intimate partner violence in pregnancy and the controls were the 499 women who did not report it. Partner violence in pregnancy and previous experiences of violence committed by parents or other family members were assessed with a standardized questionnaire. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were modeled to identify differential associations between the exposure to violence in the family of origin and victimization and perpetration of intimate partner violence in pregnancy. Having seen the mother suffer intimate partner violence was associated with physical violence in childhood (OR = 2.62; 95%CI 1.89-3.63) and in adolescence (OR = 1.47; 95%CI 1.01-2.13), sexual violence in childhood (OR = 3.28; 95%CI 1.68-6.38) and intimate partner violence during pregnancy (OR = 1.47; 95% CI 1.01 - 2.12). The intimate partner violence during pregnancy was frequent in women who reported more episodes of physical violence in childhood (OR = 2.08; 95%CI 1.43-3.02) and adolescence (OR = 1.63; 95%CI 1.07-2.47), who suffered sexual violence in childhood (OR = 3.92; 95%CI 1.86-8.27), and who perpetrated violence against the partner (OR = 8.67; 95%CI 4.57-16.45). Experiences of violence committed by parents or other family members emerge as strong risk factors for intimate partner violence in pregnancy. Identifying and understanding protective and risk factors for the emergence of intimate partner violence in pregnancy and its maintenance may help policymakers and health service managers to develop intervention strategies.

Sizing up arthropod genomes: an evaluation of the impact of environmental variation on genome size estimates by flow cytometry and the use of qPCR as a method of estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Gregory, T Ryan; Nathwani, Paula; Bonnett, Tiffany R; Huber, Dezene P W

2013-09-01

A study was undertaken to evaluate both a pre-existing method and a newly proposed approach for the estimation of nuclear genome sizes in arthropods. First, concerns regarding the reliability of the well-established method of flow cytometry relating to impacts of rearing conditions on genome size estimates were examined. Contrary to previous reports, a more carefully controlled test found negligible environmental effects on genome size estimates in the fly Drosophila melanogaster. Second, a more recently touted method based on quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) was examined in terms of ease of use, efficiency, and (most importantly) accuracy using four test species: the flies Drosophila melanogaster and Musca domestica and the beetles Tribolium castaneum and Dendroctonus ponderosa. The results of this analysis demonstrated that qPCR has the tendency to produce substantially different genome size estimates from other established techniques while also being far less efficient than existing methods.

Automatic Reporting of Creatinine-Based Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate in Children: Is this Feasible?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Lunn

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Creatinine, although widely used as a biomarker to measure renal function, has long been known as an insensitive marker of renal impairment. Patients with reduced renal function can have a creatinine level within the normal range, with a rapid rise when renal function is significantly reduced. As of 1976, the correlation between height, the reciprocal of creatinine, and measured glomerular filtration rate (GFR in children has been described. It has been used to derive a simple formula for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR that could be used at the bedside as a more sensitive method of identifying children with renal impairment. Formulae based on this association, with modifications over time as creatinine assay methods have changed, are still widely used clinically at the bedside and in research studies to assess the degree of renal impairment in children. Adult practice has moved in many countries to computer-generated results that report eGFR alongside creatinine results using more complex, but potentially more accurate estimates of GFR, which are independent of height. This permits early identification of patients with chronic kidney disease. This review assesses the feasibility of automated reporting of eGFR and the advantages and disadvantages of this in children.

New Record of Sillago sinica (Pisces: Sillaginidae in Korean Waters, and Re-identification of Sillago parvisquamis Previously Reported from Korea as S. sinica

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seung Eun Bae

2013-10-01

Full Text Available A single specimen of the genus Sillago, collected from Gwangyang, Korea, in May 2009, is characterized by XI first dorsal fin spines, 3 or 4 rows of melanophore pattern along the second dorsal fin membrane, and a darkish posterior margin of the caudal fin. Our specimen was identified as Sillago sinica reported as a new species; this identification is confirmed by mitochondrial DNA cytochrome oxidase subunit I sequences, which show that our specimen corresponds to S. sinica (d=0.000 and differs from the congeneric species Sillago parvisquamis (d=0.170. Comparisons of Korean specimens previously reported as S. parvisquamis with specimens of S. sinica show that the S. parvisquamis specimens are actually S. sinica. We propose the new Korean name “buk-bang-jeom-bo-ri-myeol” for S. sinica.

Comparison of MRI-based estimates of articular cartilage contact area in the tibiofemoral joint.

Science.gov (United States)

Henderson, Christopher E; Higginson, Jill S; Barrance, Peter J

2011-01-01

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) detrimentally impacts the lives of millions of older Americans through pain and decreased functional ability. Unfortunately, the pathomechanics and associated deviations from joint homeostasis that OA patients experience are not well understood. Alterations in mechanical stress in the knee joint may play an essential role in OA; however, existing literature in this area is limited. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the ability of an existing magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based modeling method to estimate articular cartilage contact area in vivo. Imaging data of both knees were collected on a single subject with no history of knee pathology at three knee flexion angles. Intra-observer reliability and sensitivity studies were also performed to determine the role of operator-influenced elements of the data processing on the results. The method's articular cartilage contact area estimates were compared with existing contact area estimates in the literature. The method demonstrated an intra-observer reliability of 0.95 when assessed using Pearson's correlation coefficient and was found to be most sensitive to changes in the cartilage tracings on the peripheries of the compartment. The articular cartilage contact area estimates at full extension were similar to those reported in the literature. The relationships between tibiofemoral articular cartilage contact area and knee flexion were also qualitatively and quantitatively similar to those previously reported. The MRI-based knee modeling method was found to have high intra-observer reliability, sensitivity to peripheral articular cartilage tracings, and agreeability with previous investigations when using data from a single healthy adult. Future studies will implement this modeling method to investigate the role that mechanical stress may play in progression of knee OA through estimation of articular cartilage contact area.

Summary of the BEIR V committee's estimates of genetic risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grahn, D.

1990-01-01

The Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations (BEIR V) was constituted in late 1986 to conduct a comprehensive review of the biological effects of ionizing radiations focusing on information reported since the conclusion of the 1980 BEIR study, and to provide new estimates of the risks of genetic and somatic effects in humans due to low-level exposures of ionizing radiation. The Committee preferred the doubling-dose method of genetic risk estimation over the direct method. Data from animal (mouse) studies provide a median value of 100 to 114 cGy for long-term low dose rate exposure doubling doses. These values are lower than the median from human studies. The BEIR Committee believed that a doubling dose of 100 cGy would be a prudent value leading to conservative estimates. The estimated risks themselves are not much different from those generated by previous BEIR committees, UNSCEAR, and other published estimates. The Committee estimates that between 100 and 200 added cases per million live births will be observed at genetic equilibrium if the population is exposed each generation to a dose of 0.01 Sv (1 rem). Nearly half ware attributed to clinically mild dominant defects, and the balance to congenital abnormalities. (L.L.) (2 tabs.)

Groin Problems in Male Soccer Players Are More Common Than Previously Reported

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harøy, Joar; Clarsen, Ben; Thorborg, Kristian

2017-01-01

surveillance method developed to capture acute and overuse problems. STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive epidemiology study. METHODS: We registered groin problems during a 6-week period of match congestion using the Oslo Sports Trauma Research Center Overuse Injury Questionnaire. A total of 240 players from 15 teams......BACKGROUND: The majority of surveillance studies in soccer have used a time-loss injury definition, and many groin problems result from overuse, leading to gradually increasing pain and/or reduced performance without necessarily causing an absence from soccer training or match play. Thus......, the magnitude of groin problems in soccer has probably been underestimated in previous studies based on traditional injury surveillance methods. PURPOSE: To investigate the prevalence of groin problems among soccer players of both sexes and among male soccer players at different levels of play through a new...

Femoral Component Revision with Use of Impaction Bone-Grafting and a Cemented Polished Stem: A Concise Follow-up, at Fifteen to Twenty Years, of a Previous Report*

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Te Stroet, M.A.; Gardeniers, J.W.M.; Verdonschot, N.J.; Rijnen, W.H.C.; Slooff, T.J.J.H.; Schreurs, B.W.

2012-01-01

We previously reported our results for thirty-three consecutive femoral component revisions with impaction bone-grafting, performed with the X-change femoral revision system and a cemented polished Exeter stem, at a minimum of eight years of follow-up. The present updated study shows the results

Squamous cell carcinoma arising in previously burned or irradiated skin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, M.J.; Hirsch, R.M.; Broadwater, J.R.; Netscher, D.T.; Ames, F.C.

1989-01-01

Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) arising in previously burned or irradiated skin was reviewed in 66 patients treated between 1944 and 1986. Healing of the initial injury was complicated in 70% of patients. Mean interval from initial injury to diagnosis of SCC was 37 years. The overwhelming majority of patients presented with a chronic intractable ulcer in previously injured skin. The regional relapse rate after surgical excision was very high, 58% of all patients. Predominant patterns of recurrence were in local skin and regional lymph nodes (93% of recurrences). Survival rates at 5, 10, and 20 years were 52%, 34%, and 23%, respectively. Five-year survival rates in previously burned and irradiated patients were not significantly different (53% and 50%, respectively). This review, one of the largest reported series, better defines SCC arising in previously burned or irradiated skin as a locally aggressive disease that is distinct from SCC arising in sunlight-damaged skin. An increased awareness of the significance of chronic ulceration in scar tissue may allow earlier diagnosis. Regional disease control and survival depend on surgical resection of all known disease and may require radical lymph node dissection or amputation

Nuclear medicine environmental discharge measurement. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gesell, T.F.; Prichard, H.M.; Davis, E.M.; Pirtle, O.L.; DiPietro, W.

1975-06-01

The discharge of most man-made radioactive materials to the environment is controlled by Federal, State or local regulatory agencies. Exceptions to this control include the radioactive wastes eliminated by individuals who have undergone diagnostic or therapeutic nuclear medicine procedures. The purpose of this study is to estimate the amount of radioactivity released to the environment via the nuclear medicine pathway for a single sewage drainage basin and to measure the amounts discharged to the environment. The report is organized into a review of previous studies, scope of work, facility data, environmental measurements and estimates of population exposure

Recurrent severe invasive pneumococcal disease in an adult with previously unknown hyposplenia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ballegaard, Vibe C; Schejbel, Lone; Hoffmann, Steen

2015-01-01

was found. Despite immunization against S. pneumoniae and measurement of what was interpreted as protective levels of serotype-specific IgG antibodies after vaccination, the patient suffered from a third episode of IPD. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with predisposing medical conditions or a history of severe......BACKGROUND: The risk of life-threatening and invasive infections with encapsulated bacteria is increased in patients with hyposplenia or asplenia. We report a case of recurrent invasive pneumococcal meningitis in a woman with previous unknown hyposplenia. She was vaccinated after the first episode...... of meningitis and developed sufficient levels of pneumococcal antibodies. The pneumococcal strains isolated were serotype 7 F and 17 F. To our knowledge, there has been no previously reported case of recurrent invasive pneumococcal disease in a pneumococcal vaccinated adult with hyposplenia and apparently...

Estimates of between-study heterogeneity for 705 meta-analyses reported in Psychological Bulletin from 1990-2013

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Erp, S.J.; Verhagen, Josine; Grasman, Raoul P P P; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2017-01-01

We present a data set containing 705 between-study heterogeneity estimates τ2 as reported in 61 articles published in Psychological Bulletin from 1990-2013. The data set also includes information about the number and type of effect sizes, the Q- and I2-statistics, and publication bias. The data set

United States Data Center Energy Usage Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shehabi, Arman [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Smith, Sarah [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sartor, Dale [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Brown, Richard [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Herrlin, Magnus [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Koomey, Jonathan [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Masanet, Eric [Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States); Horner, Nathaniel [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Azevedo, Inês [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Lintner, William [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States)

2016-06-01

This report estimates historical data center electricity consumption back to 2000, relying on previous studies and historical shipment data, and forecasts consumption out to 2020 based on new trends and the most recent data available. Figure ES-1 provides an estimate of total U.S. data center electricity use (servers, storage, network equipment, and infrastructure) from 2000-2020. In 2014, data centers in the U.S. consumed an estimated 70 billion kWh, representing about 1.8% of total U.S. electricity consumption. Current study results show data center electricity consumption increased by about 4% from 2010-2014, a large shift from the 24% percent increase estimated from 2005-2010 and the nearly 90% increase estimated from 2000-2005. Energy use is expected to continue slightly increasing in the near future, increasing 4% from 2014-2020, the same rate as the past five years. Based on current trend estimates, U.S. data centers are projected to consume approximately 73 billion kWh in 2020.

A model-based correction for outcome reporting bias in meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Copas, John; Dwan, Kerry; Kirkham, Jamie; Williamson, Paula

2014-04-01

It is often suspected (or known) that outcomes published in medical trials are selectively reported. A systematic review for a particular outcome of interest can only include studies where that outcome was reported and so may omit, for example, a study that has considered several outcome measures but only reports those giving significant results. Using the methodology of the Outcome Reporting Bias (ORB) in Trials study of (Kirkham and others, 2010. The impact of outcome reporting bias in randomised controlled trials on a cohort of systematic reviews. British Medical Journal 340, c365), we suggest a likelihood-based model for estimating the effect of ORB on confidence intervals and p-values in meta-analysis. Correcting for bias has the effect of moving estimated treatment effects toward the null and hence more cautious assessments of significance. The bias can be very substantial, sometimes sufficient to completely overturn previous claims of significance. We re-analyze two contrasting examples, and derive a simple fixed effects approximation that can be used to give an initial estimate of the effect of ORB in practice.

Establishing the estimation model on radiation level at the ambience of 60Co radiotherapy treatment room based on NCRP REPORT No.151

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Haiyou; Liu Liping; Liang Yueqin; Yu Shui

2009-01-01

Objective: To establish the estimation model to evaluate the radiation level at the ambience of 60 Co radiotherapy treatment room. Methods: The estimation model derives from NCRP REPORT No.151- S tructural Shielding Design and Evaluation for Megavoltage X-and Gamma-Ray Radiotherapy Facilities b y making appropriate adjustment, which presents the calculation methods on radiation level at the ambience of megavoltage medical electron linear accelerator treatment room. Results: The application scope of estimation model from NCRP REPORT No.151 is extended to γ-radiotherapy facilities, and it can be regarded as a new model for calculating the radiation level at the ambience of 60 Co radiotherapy treatment room. Conclusion: The estimation model has certain reference value to evaluate the radiation level at the ambience of 60 Co radiotherapy treatment room. (authors)

Combined methodology for estimating dose rates and health effects from exposure to radioactive pollutants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Yalcintas, M.G.

1980-12-01

The work described in the report is basically a synthesis of two previously existing computer codes: INREM II, developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); and CAIRD, developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The INREM II code uses contemporary dosimetric methods to estimate doses to specified reference organs due to inhalation or ingestion of a radionuclide. The CAIRD code employs actuarial life tables to account for competing risks in estimating numbers of health effects resulting from exposure of a cohort to some incremental risk. The combined computer code, referred to as RADRISK, estimates numbers of health effects in a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 persons due to continuous lifetime inhalation or ingestion of a radionuclide. Also briefly discussed in this report is a method of estimating numbers of health effects in a hypothetical cohort due to continuous lifetime exposure to external radiation. This method employs the CAIRD methodology together with dose conversion factors generated by the computer code DOSFACTER, developed at ORNL; these dose conversion factors are used to estimate dose rates to persons due to radionuclides in the air or on the ground surface. The combination of the life table and dosimetric guidelines for the release of radioactive pollutants to the atmosphere, as required by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Metastasis to the Orbit in a Coinfected HIV+ HBV+ Patient Previously Treated with Orthotopic Liver Transplantation: A Case Report

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Guerriero

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Hepatocellular carcinoma rarely metastasizes to the orbit. We report a 45-year-old male, HBV+, HIV+, with a past history of a liver transplant for ELSD (end-stage liver disease with hepatocellular carcinoma and recurrent HCC, who presented with proptosis and diplopia of the left eye. CT scans of the head revealed a large, irregular mass in the left orbit causing superior and lateral destruction of the orbital bone. Biopsy specimens of the orbital tumor showed features of metastatic foci of hepatocellular carcinoma. Only 16 other cases of HCC metastasis to the orbit have been described in literature, and this is the first case in a previously transplanted HIV+, HBV+ patient.

Estimating the burden of rhodesiense sleeping sickness during an outbreak in Serere, eastern Uganda

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Coleman Paul G

2008-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Zoonotic sleeping sickness, or HAT (Human African Trypanosomiasis, caused by infection with Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense, is an under-reported and neglected tropical disease. Previous assessments of the disease burden expressed as Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs for this infection have not distinguished T.b. rhodesiense from infection with the related, but clinically distinct Trypanosoma brucei gambiense form. T.b. rhodesiense occurs focally, and it is important to assess the burden at the scale at which resource-allocation decisions are made. Methods The burden of T.b. rhodesiense was estimated during an outbreak of HAT in Serere, Uganda. We identified the unique characteristics affecting the burden of rhodesiense HAT such as age, severity, level of under-reporting and duration of hospitalisation, and use field data and empirical estimates of these to model the burden imposed by this and other important diseases in this study population. While we modelled DALYs using standard methods, we also modelled uncertainty of our parameter estimates through a simulation approach. We distinguish between early and late stage HAT morbidity, and used disability weightings appropriate for the T.b. rhodesiense form of HAT. We also use a model of under-reporting of HAT to estimate the contribution of un-reported mortality to the overall disease burden in this community, and estimate the cost-effectiveness of hospital-based HAT control. Results Under-reporting accounts for 93% of the DALY estimate of rhodesiense HAT. The ratio of reported malaria cases to reported HAT cases in the same health unit was 133:1, however, the ratio of DALYs was 3:1. The age productive function curve had a close correspondence with the HAT case distribution, and HAT cases occupied more patient admission time in Serere during 1999 than all other infectious diseases other than malaria. The DALY estimate for HAT in Serere shows that the burden is much greater

Supporting document for the north east quadrant historical tank content estimate report for AX-tank farm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brevick, C.H.; Gaddis, L.A.; Walsh, A.C.

1994-06-01

This Supporting Document provides historical in-depth characterization information gathered in AX-Tank Farm, such as historical waste transfer and level data, tank physical information, temperature data, sampling data, and drywell and liquid observation well data for Historical Tank Content Estimate Report of the NE Quadrant and the Hanford 200 East Areas

Supporting document for the north east quadrant historical tank content estimate report for C-Tank Farm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brevick, C.H.; Gaddis, L.A.; Walsh, A.C.

1994-06-01

This Supporting Document provides historical in-depth characterization information gathered on C-Tank Farm, such as historical waste transfer and level data, tank physical information, temperature data, sampling data, and drywell and liquid observation well data for Historical Tank Content Estimate Report of the NE Quadrant and the Hanford 200 East Areas

On Kolmogorov asymptotics of estimators of the misclassification error rate in linear discriminant analysis

KAUST Repository

Zollanvari, Amin

2013-05-24

We provide a fundamental theorem that can be used in conjunction with Kolmogorov asymptotic conditions to derive the first moments of well-known estimators of the actual error rate in linear discriminant analysis of a multivariate Gaussian model under the assumption of a common known covariance matrix. The estimators studied in this paper are plug-in and smoothed resubstitution error estimators, both of which have not been studied before under Kolmogorov asymptotic conditions. As a result of this work, we present an optimal smoothing parameter that makes the smoothed resubstitution an unbiased estimator of the true error. For the sake of completeness, we further show how to utilize the presented fundamental theorem to achieve several previously reported results, namely the first moment of the resubstitution estimator and the actual error rate. We provide numerical examples to show the accuracy of the succeeding finite sample approximations in situations where the number of dimensions is comparable or even larger than the sample size.

On Kolmogorov asymptotics of estimators of the misclassification error rate in linear discriminant analysis

KAUST Repository

Zollanvari, Amin; Genton, Marc G.

2013-01-01

We provide a fundamental theorem that can be used in conjunction with Kolmogorov asymptotic conditions to derive the first moments of well-known estimators of the actual error rate in linear discriminant analysis of a multivariate Gaussian model under the assumption of a common known covariance matrix. The estimators studied in this paper are plug-in and smoothed resubstitution error estimators, both of which have not been studied before under Kolmogorov asymptotic conditions. As a result of this work, we present an optimal smoothing parameter that makes the smoothed resubstitution an unbiased estimator of the true error. For the sake of completeness, we further show how to utilize the presented fundamental theorem to achieve several previously reported results, namely the first moment of the resubstitution estimator and the actual error rate. We provide numerical examples to show the accuracy of the succeeding finite sample approximations in situations where the number of dimensions is comparable or even larger than the sample size.

Manipulating the reported age in earliest memories.

Science.gov (United States)

Wessel, Ineke; Schweig, Theresa; Huntjens, Rafaële J C

2017-11-02

Previous work suggests that the estimated age in adults' earliest autobiographical memories depends on age information implied by the experimental context [e.g., Kingo, O. S., Bohn, A., & Krøjgaard, P. (2013). Warm-up questions on early childhood memories affect the reported age of earliest memories in late adolescence. Memory, 21(2), 280-284. doi: 10.1080/09658211.2012.729598 ] and that the age in decontextualised snippets of memory is younger than in more complete accounts (i.e., event memories [Bruce, D., Wilcox-O'Hearn, L. A., Robinson, J. A., Phillips-Grant, K., Francis, L., & Smith, M. C. (2005). Fragment memories mark the end of childhood amnesia. Memory & Cognition, 33(4), 567-576. doi: 10.3758/BF03195324 ]). We examined the malleability of the estimated age in undergraduates' earliest memories and its relation with memory quality. In Study 1 (n = 141), vignettes referring to events happening at age 2 rendered earlier reported ages than examples referring to age 6. Exploratory analyses suggested that event memories were more sensitive to the age manipulation than memories representing a single, isolated scene (i.e., snapshots). In Study 2 (n = 162), asking self-relevant and public-event knowledge questions about participants' preschool years prior to retrieval yielded comparable average estimated ages. Both types of semantic knowledge questions rendered earlier memories than a no-age control task. Overall, the reported age in snapshots was younger than in event memories. However, age-differences between memory types across conditions were not statistically significant. Together, the results add to the growing literature indicating that the average age in earliest memories is not as fixed as previously thought.

The prevalence of diagnosed chronic conditions and multimorbidity in Australia: A method for estimating population prevalence from general practice patient encounter data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher Harrison

Full Text Available To estimate the prevalence of common chronic conditions and multimorbidity among patients at GP encounters and among people in the Australian population. To assess the extent to which use of each individual patient's GP attendance over the previous year, instead of the average for their age-sex group, affects the precision of national population prevalence estimates of diagnosed chronic conditions.A sub-study (between November 2012 and March 2016 of the Bettering the Evaluation and Care of Health program, a continuous national study of GP activity. Each of 1,449 GPs provided data for about 30 consecutive patients (total 43,501 indicating for each, number of GP attendances in previous year and all diagnosed chronic conditions, using their knowledge of the patient, patient self-report, and patient's health record.Hypertension (26.5% was the most prevalent diagnosed chronic condition among patients surveyed, followed by osteoarthritis (22.7%, hyperlipidaemia (16.6%, depression (16.3%, anxiety (11.9%, gastroesophageal reflux disease (GORD (11.3%, chronic back pain (9.7% and Type 2 diabetes (9.6%. After adjustment, we estimated population prevalence of hypertension as 12.4%, 9.5% osteoarthritis, 8.2% hyperlipidaemia, 8.0% depression, 5.8% anxiety and 5.2% asthma. Estimates were significantly lower than those derived using the previous method. About half (51.6% the patients at GP encounters had two or more diagnosed chronic conditions and over one third (37.4% had three or more. Population estimates were: 25.7% had two or more diagnosed chronic conditions and 15.8% had three or more.Of the three approaches we have tested to date, this study provides the most accurate method for estimation of population prevalence of chronic conditions using the GP as an expert interviewer, by adjusting for each patient's reported attendance.

Savings estimates for the ENERGY STAR (registered trademark) voluntary labeling program: 2001 status report; TOPICAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; Mahajan, Akshay; Koomey, Jonathan G.

2002-01-01

ENERGY STAR(Registered Trademark) is a voluntary labeling program designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices. Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more than thirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating and cooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subset of ENERGY STAR program activities, focused primarily on labeled products. We present estimates of the energy, dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2000, what we expect in 2001, and provide savings forecasts for two market penetration scenarios for the period 2001 to 2020. The target market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of future ENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goals for each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumption of 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasers buy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiency products throughout the analysis period

Model-based estimation with boundary side information or boundary regularization [cardiac emission CT].

Science.gov (United States)

Chiao, P C; Rogers, W L; Fessler, J A; Clinthorne, N H; Hero, A O

1994-01-01

The authors have previously developed a model-based strategy for joint estimation of myocardial perfusion and boundaries using ECT (emission computed tomography). They have also reported difficulties with boundary estimation in low contrast and low count rate situations. Here they propose using boundary side information (obtainable from high resolution MRI and CT images) or boundary regularization to improve both perfusion and boundary estimation in these situations. To fuse boundary side information into the emission measurements, the authors formulate a joint log-likelihood function to include auxiliary boundary measurements as well as ECT projection measurements. In addition, they introduce registration parameters to align auxiliary boundary measurements with ECT measurements and jointly estimate these parameters with other parameters of interest from the composite measurements. In simulated PET O-15 water myocardial perfusion studies using a simplified model, the authors show that the joint estimation improves perfusion estimation performance and gives boundary alignment accuracy of <0.5 mm even at 0.2 million counts. They implement boundary regularization through formulating a penalized log-likelihood function. They also demonstrate in simulations that simultaneous regularization of the epicardial boundary and myocardial thickness gives comparable perfusion estimation accuracy with the use of boundary side information.

Estimation of biochemical variables using quantumbehaved particle ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

To generate a more efficient neural network estimator, we employed the previously proposed quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization (QPSO) algorithm for neural network training. The experiment results of L-glutamic acid fermentation process showed that our established estimator could predict variables such as the ...

First Order Estimates of Energy Requirements for Pollution Control. Interagency Energy-Environment Research and Development Program Report.

Science.gov (United States)

Barker, James L.; And Others

This U.S. Environmental Protection Agency report presents estimates of the energy demand attributable to environmental control of pollution from stationary point sources. This class of pollution source includes powerplants, factories, refineries, municipal waste water treatment plants, etc., but excludes mobile sources such as trucks, and…

Approximated EU GHG inventory: Early estimates for 2011

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Herold, A. [Oeko-Institut (Oeko), Freiburg (Germany); Fernandez, R. [European Environment Agency (EEA), Copenhagen (Denmark)

2012-10-15

The objective of this report is to provide an early estimate of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU-15 and EU-27 for the year 2011. The official submission of 2011 data to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will occur in 2013. In recent years, the EEA and its European Topic Centre on Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation have developed a methodology to estimate GHG emissions using a bottom up approach - based on data or estimates for individual countries, sectors and gases - to derive EU GHG estimates in the preceding year (t-1). For transparency, this report shows the country-level GHG estimates from which the EU estimates have been derived. The 2011 estimates are based on the latest activity data available at country level and assume no change in emission factors or methodologies as compared to the official 2012 submissions to UNFCCC (which relate to emissions in 2010). Some Member States estimate and publish their own early estimates of GHG emissions for the preceding year. Where such estimates exist they are clearly referenced in this report in order to ensure complete transparency regarding the different GHG estimates available. Member State early estimates were also used for quality assurance and quality control of the EEA's GHG early estimates for 2011. Finally, the EEA has also used the early estimates of 2011 GHG emissions produced by EEA member countries to assess progress towards the Kyoto targets in its annual trends and projections report (due to be published alongside the present report). In that report, the EEA's early estimates for 2011 were only used for countries that lack their own early estimates to track progress towards national and EU targets. (LN)

Approximated EU GHG inventory: Early estimates for 2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Herold, A.; Busche, J.; Hermann, H.; Joerss, W.; Scheffler, M. (OEko-Institut, Freiburg (Germany))

2011-10-15

The objective of this report is to provide an early estimate of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU-15 and EU-27 for the year 2010. The official submission of 2010 data to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will occur in 2012. In recent years, the EEA and its European Topic Centre on Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation have developed a methodology to estimate GHG emissions using a bottom up approach - based on data or estimates for individual countries, sectors and gases - to derive EU GHG estimates in the preceding year (t-1). For transparency, this report shows the country-level GHG estimates from which the EU estimates have been derived. The 2010 estimates are based on the latest activity data available at country level and assume no change in emission factors or methodologies as compared to the official 2011 submissions to UNFCCC (which re-late to emissions in 2009). Some Member States estimate and publish their own early estimates of GHG emissions for the preceding year. Where such estimates exist they are clearly referenced in this report in order to ensure complete transparency regarding the different GHG estimates available. Member State early estimates were also used for quality assurance and quality control of the EEA's GHG early estimates for 2010. Finally, EEA has also used the early estimates of 2010 GHG emissions produced by EEA member countries to assess progress towards the Kyoto targets in its annual trends and projections report (due to be published alongside the present report). In that report, the EEA's early estimates for 2010 were only used for countries that lack their own early estimates to track progress towards national and EU targets. (Author)

Prevalence of HIV among MSM in Europe: comparison of self-reported diagnoses from a large scale internet survey and existing national estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcus Ulrich

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Country level comparisons of HIV prevalence among men having sex with men (MSM is challenging for a variety of reasons, including differences in the definition and measurement of the denominator group, recruitment strategies and the HIV detection methods. To assess their comparability, self-reported data on HIV diagnoses in a 2010 pan-European MSM internet survey (EMIS were compared with pre-existing estimates of HIV prevalence in MSM from a variety of European countries. Methods The first pan-European survey of MSM recruited more than 180,000 men from 38 countries across Europe and included questions on the year and result of last HIV test. HIV prevalence as measured in EMIS was compared with national estimates of HIV prevalence based on studies using biological measurements or modelling approaches to explore the degree of agreement between different methods. Existing estimates were taken from Dublin Declaration Monitoring Reports or UNAIDS country fact sheets, and were verified by contacting the nominated contact points for HIV surveillance in EU/EEA countries. Results The EMIS self-reported measurements of HIV prevalence were strongly correlated with existing estimates based on biological measurement and modelling studies using surveillance data (R2=0.70 resp. 0.72. In most countries HIV positive MSM appeared disproportionately likely to participate in EMIS, and prevalences as measured in EMIS are approximately twice the estimates based on existing estimates. Conclusions Comparison of diagnosed HIV prevalence as measured in EMIS with pre-existing estimates based on biological measurements using varied sampling frames (e.g. Respondent Driven Sampling, Time and Location Sampling demonstrates a high correlation and suggests similar selection biases from both types of studies. For comparison with modelled estimates the self-selection bias of the Internet survey with increased participation of men diagnosed with HIV has to be

Estimation of CO{sub 2}-emissions from Fires in Dwellings, Schools and Cars in the Nordic Countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blomqvist, Per; Simonson McNamee, Margaret

2009-07-01

Updated estimates of emissions from fires in dwellings, schools, pre schools and cars are presented for the Nordic countries with the exception of Iceland. The updated emissions are calculated based on fire statistics from 2007 and are compared to results previously presented for 1994 in Sweden. To put the fire emissions data into perspective they are also compared to national estimates of CO{sub 2} emissions as reported by the Swedish EPA to the EU in their National Inventory Report for 2007. The statistical data on fires for Sweden for 2007 is more reliable compared with the data for 1994, which strengthens the updated emission estimate. The major uncertainty in the fire data used for the emission estimate is the interpretation of fire spread which is based on rather crude assumptions. In particular in the case of houses the fire spread area used for the estimate may be an exaggeration thereby giving a possible overestimation of the estimated emissions. Data indicates that the total emission of CO{sub 2} from fires in dwellings (including single family homes, semi-detached houses, summer houses and apartments) in Sweden 2007 is 15,5 kton. Similar values for Denmark (4,1 kton), Finland (6,9 kton) and Norway (6,4 kton). Similar data for school/preschool and car fires indicate that emissions in Sweden are higher than in the other Nordic countries for these categories as well although not by as great an amount. Finally, a comparison between emissions data from other sources of CO{sub 2} and those from fires indicate that emissions of CO{sub 2} from fires are minor compared to most other sources. The previous study based on statistics from 1994 also concluded that fires are a minor source of CO{sub 2} but a relatively significant source of, e.g., particulate matter, VOC, PAH and other large organic species

Estimating terrestrial aboveground biomass estimation using lidar remote sensing: a meta-analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Zolkos, S. G.; Goetz, S. J.; Dubayah, R.

2012-12-01

Estimating biomass of terrestrial vegetation is a rapidly expanding research area, but also a subject of tremendous interest for reducing carbon emissions associated with deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). The accuracy of biomass estimates is important in the context carbon markets emerging under REDD, since areas with more accurate estimates command higher prices, but also for characterizing uncertainty in estimates of carbon cycling and the global carbon budget. There is particular interest in mapping biomass so that carbon stocks and stock changes can be monitored consistently across a range of scales - from relatively small projects (tens of hectares) to national or continental scales - but also so that other benefits of forest conservation can be factored into decision making (e.g. biodiversity and habitat corridors). We conducted an analysis of reported biomass accuracy estimates from more than 60 refereed articles using different remote sensing platforms (aircraft and satellite) and sensor types (optical, radar, lidar), with a particular focus on lidar since those papers reported the greatest efficacy (lowest errors) when used in the a synergistic manner with other coincident multi-sensor measurements. We show systematic differences in accuracy between different types of lidar systems flown on different platforms but, perhaps more importantly, differences between forest types (biomes) and plot sizes used for field calibration and assessment. We discuss these findings in relation to monitoring, reporting and verification under REDD, and also in the context of more systematic assessment of factors that influence accuracy and error estimation.

Hydrogen Station Cost Estimates: Comparing Hydrogen Station Cost Calculator Results with other Recent Estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Melaina, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Penev, M. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2013-09-01

This report compares hydrogen station cost estimates conveyed by expert stakeholders through the Hydrogen Station Cost Calculation (HSCC) to a select number of other cost estimates. These other cost estimates include projections based upon cost models and costs associated with recently funded stations.

Is the Universe More Transparent to Gamma Rays than Previously Thought?

Science.gov (United States)

Stecker, Floyd W.; Scully, Sean T.

2009-01-01

The MAGIC collaboration has recently reported the detection of the strong gamma-ray blazar 3C279 during a 1-2 day flare. They have used their spectral observations to draw conclusions regarding upper limits on the opacity of the Universe to high energy gamma-rays and, by implication, upper limits on the extragalactic mid-infrared background radiation. In this paper we examine the effect of gamma-ray absorption by the extragalactic infrared radiation on intrinsic spectra for this blazar and compare our results with the observational data on 3C279. We find agreement with our previous results, contrary to the recent assertion of the MAGIC group that the Universe is more transparent to gamma-rays than our calculations indicate. Our analysis indicates that in the energy range between approx. 80 and approx. 500 GeV, 3C279 has a best-fit intrinsic spectrum with a spectral index approx. 1.78 using our fast evolution model and approx. 2.19 using our baseline model. However, we also find that spectral indices in the range of 1.0 to 3.0 are almost as equally acceptable as the best fit spectral indices. Assuming the same intrinsic spectral index for this flare as for the 1991 flare from 3C279 observed by EGRET, viz., 2.02, which lies between our best fit indeces, we estimate that the MAGIC flare was approx.3 times brighter than the EGRET flare observed 15 years earlier.

Estimating construction and demolition debris generation using a materials flow analysis approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Cochran, K M; Townsend, T G

2010-11-01

The magnitude and composition of a region's construction and demolition (C&D) debris should be understood when developing rules, policies and strategies for managing this segment of the solid waste stream. In the US, several national estimates have been conducted using a weight-per-construction-area approximation; national estimates using alternative procedures such as those used for other segments of the solid waste stream have not been reported for C&D debris. This paper presents an evaluation of a materials flow analysis (MFA) approach for estimating C&D debris generation and composition for a large region (the US). The consumption of construction materials in the US and typical waste factors used for construction materials purchasing were used to estimate the mass of solid waste generated as a result of construction activities. Debris from demolition activities was predicted from various historical construction materials consumption data and estimates of average service lives of the materials. The MFA approach estimated that approximately 610-78 × 10(6)Mg of C&D debris was generated in 2002. This predicted mass exceeds previous estimates using other C&D debris predictive methodologies and reflects the large waste stream that exists. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards Greater Harmonisation of Decommissioning Cost Estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Sullivan, Patrick; ); Laraia, Michele; ); LaGuardia, Thomas S.

2010-01-01

The NEA Decommissioning Cost Estimation Group (DCEG), in collaboration with the IAEA Waste Technology Section and the EC Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, has recently studied cost estimation practices in 12 countries - Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. Its findings are to be published in an OECD/NEA report entitled Cost Estimation for Decommissioning: An International Overview of Cost Elements, Estimation Practices and Reporting Requirements. This booklet highlights the findings contained in the full report. (authors)

Estimates of Between-Study Heterogeneity for 705 Meta-Analyses Reported in Psychological Bulletin From 1990–2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sara van Erp

2017-08-01

Full Text Available We present a data set containing 705 between-study heterogeneity estimates τ2 as reported in 61 articles published in 'Psychological Bulletin' from 1990–2013. The data set also includes information about the number and type of effect sizes, the 'Q'- and 'I'2-statistics, and publication bias. The data set is stored in the Open Science Framework repository (https://osf.io/wyhve/ and can be used for several purposes: (1 to compare a specific heterogeneity estimate to the distribution of between-study heterogeneity estimates in psychology; (2 to construct an informed prior distribution for the between-study heterogeneity in psychology; (3 to obtain realistic population values for Monte Carlo simulations investigating the performance of meta-analytic methods.   Funding statement: This research was supported by the ERC project “Bayes or Bust”.

Mother-reported sleep, accelerometer-estimated sleep and weight status in Mexican American children: sleep duration is associated with increased adiposity and risk for overweight/obese status

Science.gov (United States)

We know of no studies comparing parent-reported sleep with accelerometer-estimated sleep in their relation to paediatric adiposity. We examined: (i) the reliability of mother-reported sleep compared with accelerometer-estimated sleep; and (ii) the relationship between both sleep measures and child a...

Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deborah P. Shutt

2017-12-01

Full Text Available As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate for Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges.

Poly-epiphyseal overgrowth: description of a previously unreported skeletal dysplasia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pazzaglia, Ugo E.; Bonaspetti, Giovanni [University of Brescia, Orthopaedic Clinic, Brescia (Italy); Beluffi, Giampiero [Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Department of Paediatric Radiology, Pavia (Italy); Marchi, Antonietta; Bozzola, Mauro; Savasta, Salvatore [Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Paediatric Clinic, University of Pavia, Pavia (Italy)

2007-10-15

A skeletal dysplasia with previously unreported features is presented. Its evolution was characterized by growth abnormalities of bones without involvement of other organs. Advanced bone age, increased stature and irregular epiphyseal ossification with stippling of the main long bones were documented. Physeal overgrowth was massive in the left proximal humerus and femur. Furthermore, the hip joint appeared fused with an abundant mass of pathological calcific tissue extending from the femur to the ilium. Pathological epiphyses were characterized by anarchic cartilaginous proliferation with multiple ossification centres, while lamellar bone apposition and remodelling were normal. The observed bone changes were different from those in any previously reported syndrome, metabolic defect or bone dysplasia. However, they clearly indicated a defect of endochondral ossification with some resemblance to phenotypes observed in dysplasia epiphysealis hemimelica. (orig.)

Poly-epiphyseal overgrowth: description of a previously unreported skeletal dysplasia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pazzaglia, Ugo E.; Bonaspetti, Giovanni; Beluffi, Giampiero; Marchi, Antonietta; Bozzola, Mauro; Savasta, Salvatore

2007-01-01

A skeletal dysplasia with previously unreported features is presented. Its evolution was characterized by growth abnormalities of bones without involvement of other organs. Advanced bone age, increased stature and irregular epiphyseal ossification with stippling of the main long bones were documented. Physeal overgrowth was massive in the left proximal humerus and femur. Furthermore, the hip joint appeared fused with an abundant mass of pathological calcific tissue extending from the femur to the ilium. Pathological epiphyses were characterized by anarchic cartilaginous proliferation with multiple ossification centres, while lamellar bone apposition and remodelling were normal. The observed bone changes were different from those in any previously reported syndrome, metabolic defect or bone dysplasia. However, they clearly indicated a defect of endochondral ossification with some resemblance to phenotypes observed in dysplasia epiphysealis hemimelica. (orig.)

78 FR 50481 - Request for Public Comments Regarding the National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-19

... barriers to U.S. exports of goods, services, and U.S. foreign direct investment for inclusion in the NTE... affecting U.S. exports of goods and services, U.S. foreign direct investment, and protection of intellectual... National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers AGENCY: Office of the United States Trade...

Measurement and Estimation of Riverbed Scour in a Mountain River

Science.gov (United States)

Song, L. A.; Chan, H. C.; Chen, B. A.

2016-12-01

Mountains are steep with rapid flows in Taiwan. After installing a structure in a mountain river, scour usually occurs around the structure because of the high energy gradient. Excessive scouring has been reported as one of the main causes of failure of river structures. The scouring disaster related to the flood can be reduced if the riverbed variation can be properly evaluated based on the flow conditions. This study measures the riverbed scour by using an improved "float-out device". Scouring and hydrodynamic data were simultaneously collected in the Mei River, Nantou County located in central Taiwan. The semi-empirical models proposed by previous researchers were used to estimate the scour depths based on the measured flow characteristics. The differences between the measured and estimated scour depths were discussed. Attempts were then made to improve the estimating results by developing a semi-empirical model to predict the riverbed scour based on the local field data. It is expected to setup a warning system of river structure safety by using the flow conditions. Keywords: scour, model, float-out device

The prevalence of previous self-harm amongst self-poisoning patients in Sri Lanka

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mohamed, Fahim; Perera, Aravinda; Wijayaweera, Kusal

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: One of the most important components of suicide prevention strategies is to target people who repeat self-harm as they are a high risk group. However, there is some evidence that the incidence of repeat self-harm is lower in Asia than in the West. The objective of this study...... was to investigate the prevalence of previous self-harm among a consecutive series of self-harm patients presenting to hospitals in rural Sri Lanka. METHOD: Six hundred and ninety-eight self-poisoning patients presenting to medical wards at two hospitals in Sri Lanka were interviewed about their previous episodes...... of self-harm. RESULTS: Sixty-one (8.7%, 95% CI 6.7-11%) patients reported at least one previous episode of self-harm [37 (10.7%) male, 24 (6.8%) female]; only 19 (2.7%, 95% CI 1.6-4.2%) patients had made more than one previous attempt. CONCLUSION: The low prevalence of previous self-harm is consistent...

Methods for the quantitative comparison of molecular estimates of clade age and the fossil record.

Science.gov (United States)

Clarke, Julia A; Boyd, Clint A

2015-01-01

Approaches quantifying the relative congruence, or incongruence, of molecular divergence estimates and the fossil record have been limited. Previously proposed methods are largely node specific, assessing incongruence at particular nodes for which both fossil data and molecular divergence estimates are available. These existing metrics, and other methods that quantify incongruence across topologies including entirely extinct clades, have so far not taken into account uncertainty surrounding both the divergence estimates and the ages of fossils. They have also treated molecular divergence estimates younger than previously assessed fossil minimum estimates of clade age as if they were the same as cases in which they were older. However, these cases are not the same. Recovered divergence dates younger than compared oldest known occurrences require prior hypotheses regarding the phylogenetic position of the compared fossil record and standard assumptions about the relative timing of morphological and molecular change to be incorrect. Older molecular dates, by contrast, are consistent with an incomplete fossil record and do not require prior assessments of the fossil record to be unreliable in some way. Here, we compare previous approaches and introduce two new descriptive metrics. Both metrics explicitly incorporate information on uncertainty by utilizing the 95% confidence intervals on estimated divergence dates and data on stratigraphic uncertainty concerning the age of the compared fossils. Metric scores are maximized when these ranges are overlapping. MDI (minimum divergence incongruence) discriminates between situations where molecular estimates are younger or older than known fossils reporting both absolute fit values and a number score for incompatible nodes. DIG range (divergence implied gap range) allows quantification of the minimum increase in implied missing fossil record induced by enforcing a given set of molecular-based estimates. These metrics are used

Previous experience of family violence and intimate partner violence in pregnancy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Bernarda Ludermir

2017-09-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate differential associations between the exposure to violence in the family of origin and victimization and perpetration of intimate partner violence in pregnancy. METHODS A nested case-control study was carried out within a cohort study with 1,120 pregnant women aged 18–49 years old, who were registered in the Family Health Strategy of the city of Recife, State of Pernambuco, Brazil, between 2005 and 2006. The cases were the 233 women who reported intimate partner violence in pregnancy and the controls were the 499 women who did not report it. Partner violence in pregnancy and previous experiences of violence committed by parents or other family members were assessed with a standardized questionnaire. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were modeled to identify differential associations between the exposure to violence in the family of origin and victimization and perpetration of intimate partner violence in pregnancy. RESULTS Having seen the mother suffer intimate partner violence was associated with physical violence in childhood (OR = 2.62; 95%CI 1.89–3.63 and in adolescence (OR = 1.47; 95%CI 1.01–2.13, sexual violence in childhood (OR = 3.28; 95%CI 1.68–6.38 and intimate partner violence during pregnancy (OR = 1.47; 95% CI 1.01 – 2.12. The intimate partner violence during pregnancy was frequent in women who reported more episodes of physical violence in childhood (OR = 2.08; 95%CI 1.43–3.02 and adolescence (OR = 1.63; 95%CI 1.07–2.47, who suffered sexual violence in childhood (OR = 3.92; 95%CI 1.86–8.27, and who perpetrated violence against the partner (OR = 8.67; 95%CI 4.57–16.45. CONCLUSIONS Experiences of violence committed by parents or other family members emerge as strong risk factors for intimate partner violence in pregnancy. Identifying and understanding protective and risk factors for the emergence of intimate partner violence in pregnancy and its maintenance may help

Uncertain Context Factors in ERP Project Estimation are an Asset: Insights from a Semi-Replication Case Study in a Financial Services Firm

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Daneva, Maia

This paper reports on the findings of a case study in a company in the financial services sector in which we replicated the use of a previously published approach to systematically balance the contextual uncertainties in the estimation of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) projects. The approach is

Matched cohort study of external cephalic version in women with previous cesarean delivery.

Science.gov (United States)

Keepanasseril, Anish; Anand, Keerthana; Soundara Raghavan, Subrahmanian

2017-07-01

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of external cephalic version (ECV) among women with previous cesarean delivery. A retrospective study was conducted using data for women with previous cesarean delivery and breech presentation who underwent ECV at or after 36 weeks of pregnancy during 2011-2016. For every case, two multiparous women without previous cesarean delivery who underwent ECV and were matched for age and pregnancy duration were included. Characteristics and outcomes were compared between groups. ECV was successful for 32 (84.2%) of 38 women with previous cesarean delivery and 62 (81.6%) in the control group (P=0.728). Multivariate regression analysis confirmed that previous cesarean was not associated with ECV success (odds ratio 1.89, 95% confidence interval 0.19-18.47; P=0.244). Successful vaginal delivery after successful ECV was reported for 19 (59.4%) women in the previous cesarean delivery group and 52 (83.9%) in the control group (P<0.001). No ECV-associated complications occurred in women with previous cesarean delivery. To avoid a repeat cesarean delivery, ECV can be offered to women with breech presentation and previous cesarean delivery who are otherwise eligible for a trial of labor. © 2017 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics.

Estimating and mapping the population at risk of sleeping sickness.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pere P Simarro

Full Text Available Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from "very high" to "very low," and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population.Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km(2 are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported.Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness.

Heuristic introduction to estimation methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feeley, J.J.; Griffith, J.M.

1982-08-01

The methods and concepts of optimal estimation and control have been very successfully applied in the aerospace industry during the past 20 years. Although similarities exist between the problems (control, modeling, measurements) in the aerospace and nuclear power industries, the methods and concepts have found only scant acceptance in the nuclear industry. Differences in technical language seem to be a major reason for the slow transfer of estimation and control methods to the nuclear industry. Therefore, this report was written to present certain important and useful concepts with a minimum of specialized language. By employing a simple example throughout the report, the importance of several information and uncertainty sources is stressed and optimal ways of using or allowing for these sources are presented. This report discusses optimal estimation problems. A future report will discuss optimal control problems

Reconnaissance Estimates of Recharge Based on an Elevation-dependent Chloride Mass-balance Approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Charles E. Russell; Tim Minor

2002-08-31

Significant uncertainty is associated with efforts to quantity recharge in arid regions such as southern Nevada. However, accurate estimates of groundwater recharge are necessary to understanding the long-term sustainability of groundwater resources and predictions of groundwater flow rates and directions. Currently, the most widely accepted method for estimating recharge in southern Nevada is the Maxey and Eakin method. This method has been applied to most basins within Nevada and has been independently verified as a reconnaissance-level estimate of recharge through several studies. Recharge estimates derived from the Maxey and Eakin and other recharge methodologies ultimately based upon measures or estimates of groundwater discharge (outflow methods) should be augmented by a tracer-based aquifer-response method. The objective of this study was to improve an existing aquifer-response method that was based on the chloride mass-balance approach. Improvements were designed to incorporate spatial variability within recharge areas (rather than recharge as a lumped parameter), develop a more defendable lower limit of recharge, and differentiate local recharge from recharge emanating as interbasin flux. Seventeen springs, located in the Sheep Range, Spring Mountains, and on the Nevada Test Site were sampled during the course of this study and their discharge was measured. The chloride and bromide concentrations of the springs were determined. Discharge and chloride concentrations from these springs were compared to estimates provided by previously published reports. A literature search yielded previously published estimates of chloride flux to the land surface. {sup 36}Cl/Cl ratios and discharge rates of the three largest springs in the Amargosa Springs discharge area were compiled from various sources. This information was utilized to determine an effective chloride concentration for recharging precipitation and its associated uncertainty via Monte Carlo simulations

A convenient method of obtaining percentile norms and accompanying interval estimates for self-report mood scales (DASS, DASS-21, HADS, PANAS, and sAD).

Science.gov (United States)

Crawford, John R; Garthwaite, Paul H; Lawrie, Caroline J; Henry, Julie D; MacDonald, Marie A; Sutherland, Jane; Sinha, Priyanka

2009-06-01

A series of recent papers have reported normative data from the general adult population for commonly used self-report mood scales. To bring together and supplement these data in order to provide a convenient means of obtaining percentile norms for the mood scales. A computer program was developed that provides point and interval estimates of the percentile rank corresponding to raw scores on the various self-report scales. The program can be used to obtain point and interval estimates of the percentile rank of an individual's raw scores on the DASS, DASS-21, HADS, PANAS, and sAD mood scales, based on normative sample sizes ranging from 758 to 3822. The interval estimates can be obtained using either classical or Bayesian methods as preferred. The computer program (which can be downloaded at www.abdn.ac.uk/~psy086/dept/MoodScore.htm) provides a convenient and reliable means of supplementing existing cut-off scores for self-report mood scales.

Estimates of Between-Study Heterogeneity for 705 Meta-Analyses Reported in Psychological Bulletin From 1990–2013

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Erp, S.; Verhagen, J.; Grasman, R.P.P.P.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

2017-01-01

We present a data set containing 705 between-study heterogeneity estimates τ2 as reported in 61 articles published in Psychological Bulletin from 1990–2013. The data set also includes information about the number and type of effect sizes, the Q- and I2-statistics, and publication bias. The data set

Laparoscopy After Previous Laparotomy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zulfo Godinjak

2006-11-01

Full Text Available Following the abdominal surgery, extensive adhesions often occur and they can cause difficulties during laparoscopic operations. However, previous laparotomy is not considered to be a contraindication for laparoscopy. The aim of this study is to present that an insertion of Veres needle in the region of umbilicus is a safe method for creating a pneumoperitoneum for laparoscopic operations after previous laparotomy. In the last three years, we have performed 144 laparoscopic operations in patients that previously underwent one or two laparotomies. Pathology of digestive system, genital organs, Cesarean Section or abdominal war injuries were the most common causes of previouslaparotomy. During those operations or during entering into abdominal cavity we have not experienced any complications, while in 7 patients we performed conversion to laparotomy following the diagnostic laparoscopy. In all patients an insertion of Veres needle and trocar insertion in the umbilical region was performed, namely a technique of closed laparoscopy. Not even in one patient adhesions in the region of umbilicus were found, and no abdominal organs were injured.

High-Grade Leiomyosarcoma Arising in a Previously Replanted Limb

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tiffany J. Pan

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Sarcoma development has been associated with genetics, irradiation, viral infections, and immunodeficiency. Reports of sarcomas arising in the setting of prior trauma, as in burn scars or fracture sites, are rare. We report a case of a leiomyosarcoma arising in an arm that had previously been replanted at the level of the elbow joint following traumatic amputation when the patient was eight years old. He presented twenty-four years later with a 10.8 cm mass in the replanted arm located on the volar forearm. The tumor was completely resected and pathology examination showed a high-grade, subfascial spindle cell sarcoma diagnosed as a grade 3 leiomyosarcoma with stage pT2bNxMx. The patient underwent treatment with brachytherapy, reconstruction with a free flap, and subsequently chemotherapy. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first case report of leiomyosarcoma developing in a replanted extremity. Development of leiomyosarcoma in this case could be related to revascularization, scar formation, or chronic injury after replantation. The patient remains healthy without signs of recurrence at three-year follow-up.

A method for the estimation of the residual error in the SALP approach for fault tree analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Astolfi, M.; Contini, S.

1980-01-01

The aim of this report is the illustration of the algorithms implemented in the SALP-MP code for the estimation of the residual error. These algorithms are of more general use, and it would be possible to implement them on all codes of the series SALP previously developed, as well as, with minor modifications, to analysis procedures based on 'top-down' approaches. At the time, combined 'top-down' - 'bottom up' procedures are being studied in order to take advantage from both approaches for further reduction of computer time and better estimation of the residual error, for which the developed algorithms are still applicable

Ferrycyanide Safety Program cyanide speciation studies FY 1994 annual report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bryan, S.A.; Pool, K.H.; Bryan, S.L.; Sell, R.L.; Thomas, L.M.P.; Lerner, B.D.

1994-09-01

This report summarizes Pacific Northwest Laboratories FY 1994 progress toward developing and implementing methods to identify and quantify cyanide species in ferrocyanide tank waste. Currently, there are 24 high-level waste storage tanks at the the US DOE's Hanford Site that have been placed on a Ferrocyanide Tank Watch list because they contain an estimated 1000 g-moles or more of precipitated ferrocyanide. This amount of ferrocyanide is of concern because the consequences of a potential explosion may exceed those reported previously

Pulmonary Aspergillosis in a Previously Healthy 13-Year-Old Boy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonathan H. Rayment

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Chronic granulomatous disease (CGD is a rare, polygenic primary immunodeficiency. In this case report, we describe a previously healthy 13-year-old boy who presented with multifocal pulmonary aspergillosis and was subsequently diagnosed with an autosomal recessive form of chronic granulomatous disease. CGD has a variable natural history and age of presentation and should be considered when investigating a patient with recurrent or severe infections with catalase-positive organisms.

National Solar Radiation Data Base, Vol. 2 - Final Technical Report (1961-1990)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maxwell, E. L.; Marion, W.; Myers, D.; Rymes, M.; Wilcox, S.

1995-01-01

This technical report explains the procedures used during the 4-year production of the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) (1961-1990). It is the second volume in a two-volume report on the NSRDB. The first volume, User's Guide-National Solar Radiation Data Base, provides the information needed to use the data base products. Volume 2 concentrates on results from the R&D required to producea solar radiation data base that would represent a significant update of a previous data base (SOLMET). More than 90% of the data in the NSRDB were estimated using a model--the Meteorological/Statistical (METSTAT) model. Much of Volume 2 concerns the METSTAT model and the sources of its input data. In addition, it contains results of comparisons of the NSRBD with the previous SOLMET data base.Results of the model evaluations and data base comparisons favor the use of NSRDB data over SOLMET data to select optimum sites and estimate performance for solar energy systems. The report noted that to improve data on solar radiation, 'measured' data need to become the mainstav of future data bases.

Estimating Externalities of Coal Fuel Cycles, Report 3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barnthouse, L.W.; Cada, G.F.; Cheng, M.-D.; Easterly, C.E.; Kroodsma, R.L.; Lee, R.; Shriner, D.S.; Tolbert, V.R.; Turner, R.S.

1994-09-01

The agreement between the US DOE and the EC established the specific objectives of the study: (a) to develop a methodological framework that uses existing data and models to quantify the external costs and benefits of energy; (b) to demonstrate the application of the framework to estimate the externalities of the coal, biomass, oil, natural gas, hydro, nuclear, photovoltaic, and wind fuel cycles (by agreement with the EC, the US addressed the first six of these); and (c) to identify major gaps in the availability of information to quantify impacts, damages, benefits, and externalities of fuel cycles; and to suggest priorities for future research. The main consideration in defining these objectives was a desire to have more information about externalities, and a better method for estimating them.

Performance of Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration Creatinine-Cystatin C Equation for Estimating Kidney Function in Cirrhosis

Science.gov (United States)

Mindikoglu, Ayse L.; Dowling, Thomas C.; Weir, Matthew R.; Seliger, Stephen L.; Christenson, Robert H.; Magder, Laurence S.

2013-01-01

Conventional creatinine-based glomerular filtration rate (GFR) equations are insufficiently accurate for estimating GFR in cirrhosis. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) recently proposed an equation to estimate GFR in subjects without cirrhosis using both serum creatinine and cystatin C levels. Performance of the new CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation (2012) was superior to previous creatinine- or cystatin C-based GFR equations. To evaluate the performance of the CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation in subjects with cirrhosis, we compared it to GFR measured by non-radiolabeled iothalamate plasma clearance (mGFR) in 72 subjects with cirrhosis. We compared the “bias”, “precision” and “accuracy” of the new CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation to that of 24-hour urinary creatinine clearance (CrCl), Cockcroft-Gault (CG) and previously reported creatinine- and/or cystatin C-based GFR-estimating equations. Accuracy of CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation as quantified by root mean squared error of difference scores [differences between mGFR and estimated GFR (eGFR) or between mGFR and CrCl, or between mGFR and CG equation for each subject] (RMSE=23.56) was significantly better than that of CrCl (37.69, P=0.001), CG (RMSE=36.12, P=0.002) and GFR-estimating equations based on cystatin C only. Its accuracy as quantified by percentage of eGFRs that differed by greater than 30% with respect to mGFR was significantly better compared to CrCl (P=0.024), CG (P=0.0001), 4-variable MDRD (P=0.027) and CKD-EPI creatinine 2009 (P=0.012) equations. However, for 23.61% of the subjects, GFR estimated by CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation differed from the mGFR by more than 30%. CONCLUSIONS The diagnostic performance of CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation (2012) in patients with cirrhosis was superior to conventional equations in clinical practice for estimating GFR. However, its diagnostic performance was substantially worse than

Parametric cost estimation for space science missions

Science.gov (United States)

Lillie, Charles F.; Thompson, Bruce E.

2008-07-01

Cost estimation for space science missions is critically important in budgeting for successful missions. The process requires consideration of a number of parameters, where many of the values are only known to a limited accuracy. The results of cost estimation are not perfect, but must be calculated and compared with the estimates that the government uses for budgeting purposes. Uncertainties in the input parameters result from evolving requirements for missions that are typically the "first of a kind" with "state-of-the-art" instruments and new spacecraft and payload technologies that make it difficult to base estimates on the cost histories of previous missions. Even the cost of heritage avionics is uncertain due to parts obsolescence and the resulting redesign work. Through experience and use of industry best practices developed in participation with the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), Northrop Grumman has developed a parametric modeling approach that can provide a reasonably accurate cost range and most probable cost for future space missions. During the initial mission phases, the approach uses mass- and powerbased cost estimating relationships (CER)'s developed with historical data from previous missions. In later mission phases, when the mission requirements are better defined, these estimates are updated with vendor's bids and "bottoms- up", "grass-roots" material and labor cost estimates based on detailed schedules and assigned tasks. In this paper we describe how we develop our CER's for parametric cost estimation and how they can be applied to estimate the costs for future space science missions like those presented to the Astronomy & Astrophysics Decadal Survey Study Committees.

[Metatropic dysplasia in a girl with c.1811_1812delinsAT mutation in exon 11 of the TRPV4 gene not previously reported].

Science.gov (United States)

Cammarata-Scalisi, Francisco; Matysiak-Scholze, Uta; Heinze, Jessica; Barrera, Albaro; Lacruz-Rengel, María Angelina; Bracho, Ana; Guerrero, Yudith

2015-01-01

Metatropic dysplasia is a skeletal disorder with clinical heterogeneity, characterized by craniofacial dysmorphy including frontal bossing and midface hypoplasia, short trunk,progressive kyphoscoliosis and shortened limbs. The TRPV4 gene is located on 12q24.11, coding a cation channel with nonselective permeability to calcium; it is expressed and involved in many physiological processes through responses to different stimuli. Over 50 mutations in TRPV4 have been described. We present a seven months old girl with heterozygous mutation c.1811_1812delinsAT; p.I604N in intron 11 not previously reported in the TRPV4 gene and with clinical findings compatible with metatropic dysplasia.

Estimating the reproductive number, total outbreak size, and reporting rates for Zika epidemics in South and Central America.

Science.gov (United States)

Shutt, Deborah P; Manore, Carrie A; Pankavich, Stephen; Porter, Aaron T; Del Valle, Sara Y

2017-12-01

As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and how they vary across regions is a challenging and important problem. We developed a mathematical model for the 2015/2016 Zika virus outbreak dynamics in Colombia, El Salvador, and Suriname. We fit the model to publicly available data provided by the Pan American Health Organization, using Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate parameter distributions and provide uncertainty quantification. The model indicated that a country-level analysis was not appropriate for Colombia. We then estimated the basic reproduction number to range between 4 and 6 for El Salvador and Suriname with a median of 4.3 and 5.3, respectively. We estimated the reporting rate to be around 16% in El Salvador and 18% in Suriname with estimated total outbreak sizes of 73,395 and 21,647 people, respectively. The uncertainty in parameter estimates highlights a need for research and data collection that will better constrain parameter ranges. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Upon Further Review: V. An Examination of Previous Lightcurve Analysis from the Palmer Divide Observatory

Science.gov (United States)

Warner, Brian D.

2011-01-01

Updated results are given for nine asteroids previously reported from the Palmer Divide Observatory (PDO). The original images were re-measured to obtain new data sets using the latest version of MPO Canopus photometry software, analysis tools, and revised techniques for linking multiple observing runs covering several days to several weeks. Results that were previously not reported or were moderately different were found for 1659 Punkajarju, 1719 Jens, 1987 Kaplan, 2105 Gudy, 2961 Katsurahama, 3285 Ruth Wolfe, 3447 Burckhalter, 7816 Hanoi, and (34817) 2000 SE116. This is one in a series of papers that will examine results obtained during the initial years of the asteroid lightcurve program at PDO.

Method to estimate the internal stresses due to moisture in wood using transmission properties of microwaves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takemura, T.; Taniguchi, T.

2004-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to offer a new method for detecting stress in wood due to moisture along the lines of a theory reported previously. According to the theory, the stress in wood could be estimated from the moisture content of the wood and the power voltage of a microwave moisture meter (i.e., attenuation of the projected microwave). This seems to suggest a possibility of utilizing microwaves in the field of stress detection. To develop such an idea, the stress formulas were initially modified to the form of an uni-variable function of power voltage, and the application method of the formulas to detection was tried. Finally, these results were applied to the data of sugi (Cryptomeria japonica) lumber in the previous experiment. The estimated strains showed fairly good agreement with those observed. It could be concluded from this study that the proposed method might be available for detecting stress in wood due to moisture

Preoperative screening: value of previous tests.

Science.gov (United States)

Macpherson, D S; Snow, R; Lofgren, R P

1990-12-15

To determine the frequency of tests done in the year before elective surgery that might substitute for preoperative screening tests and to determine the frequency of test results that change from a normal value to a value likely to alter perioperative management. Retrospective cohort analysis of computerized laboratory data (complete blood count, sodium, potassium, and creatinine levels, prothrombin time, and partial thromboplastin time). Urban tertiary care Veterans Affairs Hospital. Consecutive sample of 1109 patients who had elective surgery in 1988. At admission, 7549 preoperative tests were done, 47% of which duplicated tests performed in the previous year. Of 3096 previous results that were normal as defined by hospital reference range and done closest to the time of but before admission (median interval, 2 months), 13 (0.4%; 95% CI, 0.2% to 0.7%), repeat values were outside a range considered acceptable for surgery. Most of the abnormalities were predictable from the patient's history, and most were not noted in the medical record. Of 461 previous tests that were abnormal, 78 (17%; CI, 13% to 20%) repeat values at admission were outside a range considered acceptable for surgery (P less than 0.001, frequency of clinically important abnormalities of patients with normal previous results with those with abnormal previous results). Physicians evaluating patients preoperatively could safely substitute the previous test results analyzed in this study for preoperative screening tests if the previous tests are normal and no obvious indication for retesting is present.

Masking in reports of "most serious" events: bias in estimators of sports injury incidence in Canadian children

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Gupta

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Surveys that collect information on injuries often focus on the single "most serious" event to help limit recall error and reduce survey length. However, this can mask less serious injuries and result in biased incidence estimates for specific injury subcategories. Methods: Data from the 2002 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC survey and from the Canadian Hospitals Injury Reporting and Prevention Program (CHIRPP were used to compare estimates of sports injury incidence in Canadian children. Results: HBSC data indicate that 6.7% of children report sustaining a sports injury that required an emergency department (ED visit. However, details were only collected on a child's "most serious" injury, so children who had multiple injuries requiring an ED visit may have had sports injuries that went unreported. The rate of 6.7% can be seen to be an underestimate by as much as 4.3%. Corresponding CHIRPP surveillance data indicate an incidence of 9.9%. Potential masking bias is also highlighted in our analysis of injuries attended by other health care providers. Conclusion: The "one most serious injury" line of questioning induces potentially substantial masking bias in the estimation of sports injury incidence, which limits researchers' ability to quantify the burden of sports injury. Longer survey recall periods naturally lead to greater masking. The design of future surveys should take these issues into account. In order to accurately inform policy decisions and the direction of future research, researchers must be aware of these limitations.

Space Radiation Heart Disease Risk Estimates for Lunar and Mars Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori; Kim, Myung-Hee

2010-01-01

The NASA Space Radiation Program performs research on the risks of late effects from space radiation for cancer, neurological disorders, cataracts, and heart disease. For mortality risks, an aggregate over all risks should be considered as well as projection of the life loss per radiation induced death. We report on a triple detriment life-table approach to combine cancer and heart disease risks. Epidemiology results show extensive heterogeneity between populations for distinct components of the overall heart disease risks including hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and cerebrovascular diseases. We report on an update to our previous heart disease estimates for Heart disease (ICD9 390-429) and Stroke (ICD9 430-438), and other sub-groups using recent meta-analysis results for various exposed radiation cohorts to low LET radiation. Results for multiplicative and additive risk transfer models are considered using baseline rates for US males and female. Uncertainty analysis indicated heart mortality risks as low as zero, assuming a threshold dose for deterministic effects, and projections approaching one-third of the overall cancer risk. Medan life-loss per death estimates were significantly less than that of solid cancer and leukemias. Critical research questions to improve risks estimates for heart disease are distinctions in mechanisms at high doses (>2 Gy) and low to moderate doses (<2 Gy), and data and basic understanding of radiation doserate and quality effects, and individual sensitivity.

Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Title I operator dose calculations. Final report, LATA report No. 90

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hughes, P.S.; Rigdon, L.D.

1980-02-01

The radiation exposure dose was estimated for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) operating personnel who do the unloading and transporting of the transuranic contact-handled waste. Estimates of the radiation source terms for typical TRU contact-handled waste were based on known composition and properties of the waste. The operations sequence for waste movement and storage in the repository was based upon the WIPP Title I data package. Previous calculations had been based on Conceptual Design Report data. A time and motion sequence was developed for personnel performing the waste handling operations both above and below ground. Radiation exposure calculations were then performed in several fixed geometries and folded with the time and motion studies for individual workers in order to determine worker exposure on an annual basis

Interior Gradient Estimates for Nonuniformly Parabolic Equations II

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lieberman Gary M

2007-01-01

Full Text Available We prove interior gradient estimates for a large class of parabolic equations in divergence form. Using some simple ideas, we prove these estimates for several types of equations that are not amenable to previous methods. In particular, we have no restrictions on the maximum eigenvalue of the coefficient matrix and we obtain interior gradient estimates for so-called false mean curvature equation.

Estimation of Source Term Behaviors in SBO Sequence in a Typical 1000MWth PWR and Comparison with Other Source Term Results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Tae Woon; Han, Seok Jung; Ahn, Kwang Il; Fynan, Douglas; Jung, Yong Hoon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

Since the Three Mile Island (TMI) (1979), Chernobyl (1986), Fukushima Daiichi (2011) accidents, the assessment of radiological source term effects on the environment has been a key concern of nuclear safety. In the Fukushima Daiichi accident, the long-term SBO (station blackout) accident occurs. Using the worst case assumptions like in Fukushima accident on the accident sequences and on the availability of safety systems, the thermal hydraulic behaviors, core relocation and environmental source terms behaviors are estimated for long-term SBO accident for OPR-1000 reactor. MELCOR code version 1.8.6 is used in this analysis. Source term results estimated in this study is compared with other previous studies and estimated results in Fukushima accidents in UNSCEAR-2013 report. This study estimated that 11 % of iodine can be released to environment and 2% of cesium can be released to environment. UNSCEAR-2013 report estimated that 2 - 8 % of iodine have been released to environment and 1 - 3 % of cesium have been released to the environment. They have similar results in the aspect of release fractions of iodine and cesium to environment.

Underestimation of Severity of Previous Whiplash Injuries

Science.gov (United States)

Naqui, SZH; Lovell, SJ; Lovell, ME

2008-01-01

INTRODUCTION We noted a report that more significant symptoms may be expressed after second whiplash injuries by a suggested cumulative effect, including degeneration. We wondered if patients were underestimating the severity of their earlier injury. PATIENTS AND METHODS We studied recent medicolegal reports, to assess subjects with a second whiplash injury. They had been asked whether their earlier injury was worse, the same or lesser in severity. RESULTS From the study cohort, 101 patients (87%) felt that they had fully recovered from their first injury and 15 (13%) had not. Seventy-six subjects considered their first injury of lesser severity, 24 worse and 16 the same. Of the 24 that felt the violence of their first accident was worse, only 8 had worse symptoms, and 16 felt their symptoms were mainly the same or less than their symptoms from their second injury. Statistical analysis of the data revealed that the proportion of those claiming a difference who said the previous injury was lesser was 76% (95% CI 66–84%). The observed proportion with a lesser injury was considerably higher than the 50% anticipated. CONCLUSIONS We feel that subjects may underestimate the severity of an earlier injury and associated symptoms. Reasons for this may include secondary gain rather than any proposed cumulative effect. PMID:18201501

Bayesian estimation of the discrete coefficient of determination.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ting; Braga-Neto, Ulisses M

2016-12-01

The discrete coefficient of determination (CoD) measures the nonlinear interaction between discrete predictor and target variables and has had far-reaching applications in Genomic Signal Processing. Previous work has addressed the inference of the discrete CoD using classical parametric and nonparametric approaches. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian framework for the inference of the discrete CoD. We derive analytically the optimal minimum mean-square error (MMSE) CoD estimator, as well as a CoD estimator based on the Optimal Bayesian Predictor (OBP). For the latter estimator, exact expressions for its bias, variance, and root-mean-square (RMS) are given. The accuracy of both Bayesian CoD estimators with non-informative and informative priors, under fixed or random parameters, is studied via analytical and numerical approaches. We also demonstrate the application of the proposed Bayesian approach in the inference of gene regulatory networks, using gene-expression data from a previously published study on metastatic melanoma.

Risks of cardiovascular adverse events and death in patients with previous stroke undergoing emergency noncardiac, nonintracranial surgery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Mia N.; Andersson, Charlotte; Gislason, Gunnar H.

2017-01-01

Background: The outcomes of emergent noncardiac, nonintracranial surgery in patients with previous stroke remain unknown. Methods: All emergency surgeries performed in Denmark (2005 to 2011) were analyzed according to time elapsed between previous ischemic stroke and surgery. The risks of 30-day...... mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events were estimated as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs using adjusted logistic regression models in a priori defined groups (reference was no previous stroke). In patients undergoing surgery immediately (within 1 to 3 days) or early after stroke (within 4 to 14...... and general anesthesia less frequent in patients with previous stroke (all P Risks of major adverse cardiovascular events and mortality were high for patients with stroke less than 3 months (20.7 and 16.4% events; OR = 4.71 [95% CI, 4.18 to 5.32] and 1.65 [95% CI, 1.45 to 1.88]), and remained...

Low-dose computed tomography image restoration using previous normal-dose scan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma, Jianhua; Huang, Jing; Feng, Qianjin; Zhang, Hua; Lu, Hongbing; Liang, Zhengrong; Chen, Wufan

2011-01-01

Purpose: In current computed tomography (CT) examinations, the associated x-ray radiation dose is of a significant concern to patients and operators. A simple and cost-effective means to perform the examinations is to lower the milliampere-seconds (mAs) or kVp parameter (or delivering less x-ray energy to the body) as low as reasonably achievable in data acquisition. However, lowering the mAs parameter will unavoidably increase data noise and the noise would propagate into the CT image if no adequate noise control is applied during image reconstruction. Since a normal-dose high diagnostic CT image scanned previously may be available in some clinical applications, such as CT perfusion imaging and CT angiography (CTA), this paper presents an innovative way to utilize the normal-dose scan as a priori information to induce signal restoration of the current low-dose CT image series. Methods: Unlike conventional local operations on neighboring image voxels, nonlocal means (NLM) algorithm utilizes the redundancy of information across the whole image. This paper adapts the NLM to utilize the redundancy of information in the previous normal-dose scan and further exploits ways to optimize the nonlocal weights for low-dose image restoration in the NLM framework. The resulting algorithm is called the previous normal-dose scan induced nonlocal means (ndiNLM). Because of the optimized nature of nonlocal weights calculation, the ndiNLM algorithm does not depend heavily on image registration between the current low-dose and the previous normal-dose CT scans. Furthermore, the smoothing parameter involved in the ndiNLM algorithm can be adaptively estimated based on the image noise relationship between the current low-dose and the previous normal-dose scanning protocols. Results: Qualitative and quantitative evaluations were carried out on a physical phantom as well as clinical abdominal and brain perfusion CT scans in terms of accuracy and resolution properties. The gain by the use

75 FR 54215 - Agency Request for Approval of a Previously Approved Information Collection(s): Uniform...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-09-03

... about our intention to request Office of Management and Budget (OMB) approval to renew a previously... because of management and oversight responsibilities of the agency imposed by OMB Circular 2 CFR 215 (A... Department has terminated Financial Status Report (SF-269 and SF-269A) and Federal Cash Transactions Report...

[Parathyroid cancer in a patient with previous history of hypernephroma: a clinical case].

Science.gov (United States)

Martín Navarro, J; Mendoza, E; Mateos, P; Cereceda, A; Coca, S

2007-01-01

We report the clinical case of a 55 year-old male patient, with a previous history of nephrectomy by hypernephroma sixteen years ago, first presenting hypercalcemia and rising of intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) levels. A localization study revealed an intrathyroid nodule with cystic appearance. After undergoing a hemi-thyroidectomy, the patient is diagnosed with parathyroid carcinoma. This article analyzes previously published cases presenting parathyroidal pathologies associated with hypernephroma. A broader differential diagnosis--including the screening of parathyroidal pathologies should be considered in patients with hypercalcemia and hypernephroma.

Methods to estimate equipment and materials that are candidates for removal during the decontamination of fuel processing facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duncan, D.R.; Valero, O.J.; Hyre, R.A.; Pottmeyer, J.A.; Millar, J.S.; Reddick, J.A.

1995-02-01

The methodology presented in this report provides a model for estimating the volume and types of waste expected from the removal of equipment and other materials during Decontamination and Decommissioning (D and D) of canyon-type fuel reprocessing facilities. This methodology offers a rough estimation technique based on a comparative analysis for a similar, previously studied, reprocessing facility. This approach is especially useful as a planning tool to save time and money while preparing for final D and D. The basic methodology described here can be extended for use at other types of facilities, such as glovebox or reactor facilities

Online Kinematic and Dynamic-State Estimation for Constrained Multibody Systems Based on IMUs

Science.gov (United States)

Torres-Moreno, José Luis; Blanco-Claraco, José Luis; Giménez-Fernández, Antonio; Sanjurjo, Emilio; Naya, Miguel Ángel

2016-01-01

This article addresses the problems of online estimations of kinematic and dynamic states of a mechanism from a sequence of noisy measurements. In particular, we focus on a planar four-bar linkage equipped with inertial measurement units (IMUs). Firstly, we describe how the position, velocity, and acceleration of all parts of the mechanism can be derived from IMU signals by means of multibody kinematics. Next, we propose the novel idea of integrating the generic multibody dynamic equations into two variants of Kalman filtering, i.e., the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), in a way that enables us to handle closed-loop, constrained mechanisms, whose state space variables are not independent and would normally prevent the direct use of such estimators. The proposal in this work is to apply those estimators over the manifolds of allowed positions and velocities, by means of estimating a subset of independent coordinates only. The proposed techniques are experimentally validated on a testbed equipped with encoders as a means of establishing the ground-truth. Estimators are run online in real-time, a feature not matched by any previous procedure of those reported in the literature on multibody dynamics. PMID:26959027

Health effects of low-level radiation in shipyard workers: report of previous work

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matanoski, G.M.

1984-01-01

Progress over the course of the Nuclear Shipyard Workers Study is reported. The derivation of the study population, the gathering of health histories, the US Navy radiation protection program, and the determination of radiation exposures is described

Potential of ALOS2 and NDVI to Estimate Forest Above-Ground Biomass, and Comparison with Lidar-Derived Estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gaia Vaglio Laurin

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Remote sensing supports carbon estimation, allowing the upscaling of field measurements to large extents. Lidar is considered the premier instrument to estimate above ground biomass, but data are expensive and collected on-demand, with limited spatial and temporal coverage. The previous JERS and ALOS SAR satellites data were extensively employed to model forest biomass, with literature suggesting signal saturation at low-moderate biomass values, and an influence of plot size on estimates accuracy. The ALOS2 continuity mission since May 2014 produces data with improved features with respect to the former ALOS, such as increased spatial resolution and reduced revisit time. We used ALOS2 backscatter data, testing also the integration with additional features (SAR textures and NDVI from Landsat 8 data together with ground truth, to model and map above ground biomass in two mixed forest sites: Tahoe (California and Asiago (Alps. While texture was useful to improve the model performance, the best model was obtained using joined SAR and NDVI (R2 equal to 0.66. In this model, only a slight saturation was observed, at higher levels than what usually reported in literature for SAR; the trend requires further investigation but the model confirmed the complementarity of optical and SAR datatypes. For comparison purposes, we also generated a biomass map for Asiago using lidar data, and considered a previous lidar-based study for Tahoe; in these areas, the observed R2 were 0.92 for Tahoe and 0.75 for Asiago, respectively. The quantitative comparison of the carbon stocks obtained with the two methods allows discussion of sensor suitability. The range of local variation captured by lidar is higher than those by SAR and NDVI, with the latter showing overestimation. However, this overestimation is very limited for one of the study areas, suggesting that when the purpose is the overall quantification of the stored carbon, especially in areas with high carbon

Estimated Minimum Discharge Rates of the Deepwater Horizon Spill-Interim Report to the Flow Rate Technical Group from the Mass Balance Team

Science.gov (United States)

Labson, Victor F.; Clark, Roger N.; Swayze, Gregg A.; Hoefen, Todd M.; Kokaly, Raymond F.; Livo, K. Eric; Powers, Michael H.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Meeker, Gregory P.

2010-01-01

All of the calculations and results in this report are preliminary and intended for the purpose, and only for the purpose, of aiding the incident team in assessing the extent of the spilled oil for ongoing response efforts. Other applications of this report are not authorized and are not considered valid. Because of time constraints and limitations of data available to the experts, many of their estimates are approximate, are subject to revision, and certainly should not be used as the Federal Government's final values for assessing volume of the spill or its impact to the environment or to coastal communities. Each expert that contributed to this report reserves the right to alter his conclusions based upon further analysis or additional information. An estimated minimum total oil discharge was determined by calculations of oil volumes measured as of May 17, 2010. This included oil on the ocean surface measured with satellite and airborne images and with spectroscopic data (129,000 barrels to 246,000 barrels using less and more aggressive assumptions, respectively), oil skimmed off the surface (23,500 barrels from U.S. Coast Guard [USCG] estimates), oil burned off the surface (11,500 barrels from USCG estimates), dispersed subsea oil (67,000 to 114,000 barrels), and oil evaporated or dissolved (109,000 to 185,000 barrels). Sedimentation (oil captured from Mississippi River silt and deposited on the ocean bottom), biodegradation, and other processes may indicate significant oil volumes beyond our analyses, as will any subsurface volumes such as suspended tar balls or other emulsions that are not included in our estimates. The lower bounds of total measured volumes are estimated to be within the range of 340,000 to 580,000 barrels as of May 17, 2010, for an estimated average minimum discharge rate of 12,500 to 21,500 barrels per day for 27 days from April 20 to May 17, 2010.

Republic of Georgia estimates for prevalence of drug use: Randomized response techniques suggest under-estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirtadze, Irma; Otiashvili, David; Tabatadze, Mzia; Vardanashvili, Irina; Sturua, Lela; Zabransky, Tomas; Anthony, James C

2018-06-01

Validity of responses in surveys is an important research concern, especially in emerging market economies where surveys in the general population are a novelty, and the level of social control is traditionally higher. The Randomized Response Technique (RRT) can be used as a check on response validity when the study aim is to estimate population prevalence of drug experiences and other socially sensitive and/or illegal behaviors. To apply RRT and to study potential under-reporting of drug use in a nation-scale, population-based general population survey of alcohol and other drug use. For this first-ever household survey on addictive substances for the Country of Georgia, we used the multi-stage probability sampling of 18-to-64-year-old household residents of 111 urban and 49 rural areas. During the interviewer-administered assessments, RRT involved pairing of sensitive and non-sensitive questions about drug experiences. Based upon the standard household self-report survey estimate, an estimated 17.3% [95% confidence interval, CI: 15.5%, 19.1%] of Georgian household residents have tried cannabis. The corresponding RRT estimate was 29.9% [95% CI: 24.9%, 34.9%]. The RRT estimates for other drugs such as heroin also were larger than the standard self-report estimates. We remain unsure about what is the "true" value for prevalence of using illegal psychotropic drugs in the Republic of Georgia study population. Our RRT results suggest that standard non-RRT approaches might produce 'under-estimates' or at best, highly conservative, lower-end estimates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Laser cost experience and estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shofner, F.M.; Hoglund, R.L.

1977-01-01

This report addresses the question of estimating the capital and operating costs for LIS (Laser Isotope Separation) lasers, which have performance requirements well beyond the state of mature art. This question is seen with different perspectives by political leaders, ERDA administrators, scientists, and engineers concerned with reducing LIS to economically successful commercial practice, on a timely basis. Accordingly, this report attempts to provide ''ballpark'' estimators for capital and operating costs and useful design and operating information for lasers based on mature technology, and their LIS analogs. It is written very basically and is intended to respond about equally to the perspectives of administrators, scientists, and engineers. Its major contributions are establishing the current, mature, industrialized laser track record (including capital and operating cost estimators, reliability, types of application, etc.) and, especially, evolution of generalized estimating procedures for capital and operating cost estimators for new laser design

The association between estimated average glucose levels and fasting plasma glucose levels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giray Bozkaya

2010-01-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The level of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c, also known as glycated hemoglobin, determines how well a patient's blood glucose level has been controlled over the previous 8-12 weeks. HbA1c levels help patients and doctors understand whether a particular diabetes treatment is working and whether adjustments need to be made to the treatment. Because the HbA1c level is a marker of blood glucose for the previous 120 days, average blood glucose levels can be estimated using HbA1c levels. Our aim in the present study was to investigate the relationship between estimated average glucose levels, as calculated by HbA1c levels, and fasting plasma glucose levels. METHODS: The fasting plasma glucose levels of 3891 diabetic patient samples (1497 male, 2394 female were obtained from the laboratory information system used for HbA1c testing by the Department of Internal Medicine at the Izmir Bozyaka Training and Research Hospital in Turkey. These samples were selected from patient samples that had hemoglobin levels between 12 and 16 g/dL. The estimated glucose levels were calculated using the following formula: 28.7 x HbA1c - 46.7. Glucose and HbA1c levels were determined using hexokinase and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC methods, respectively. RESULTS: A strong positive correlation between fasting plasma glucose levels and estimated average blood glucose levels (r=0.757, p<0.05 was observed. The difference was statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Reporting the estimated average glucose level together with the HbA1c level is believed to assist patients and doctors determine the effectiveness of blood glucose control measures.

Foreign materials in the repository. Update of estimated quantities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karvonen, T.

2011-06-01

A variety of materials are used during the construction process and the operation of the repository for spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto in Eurajoki, Finland. In addition to materials necessary for the construction and operation, some materials may be transported into the repository with the ventilation air, as emissions from vehicles etc. Both of these two types of materials are considered here and both introduced quantities and the quantities that remain after the closure in the repository are estimated here based on the most recent information. This work is intended to update the previous estimations, and it takes advantage of the experience collected during the construction of the underground rock characterisation facility called ONKALO at Olkiluoto. The implemented quantities as well as designs and preliminary designs have been used in calculating the quantities of the foreign materials. The estimations made in this report are specific to a KBS-3V type repository. In some cases more generic information has been used, particularly when the relevant quantities have not been monitored in ONKALO. The estimations are based on the new repository layout produced in 2010 and consider the latest plans for grouting and rock support. As all of these plans are not final some quantities may change in the future. As the repository layout may still go through some changes this report also provides the foreign materials for a hundred meters of different deposition tunnels designed for the OL and LO type canisters1. The results have also been calculated for a space demanded by a deposition tunnel end plug and the tunnel lengths before and after one. The most significant foreign materials are certain accessory minerals of the clay materials followed by organic materials (including the organic carbon from the clay materials), cement, steel and silica. (orig.)

ON ESTIMATING FORCE-FREENESS BASED ON OBSERVED MAGNETOGRAMS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, X. M.; Zhang, M.; Su, J. T.

2017-01-01

It is a common practice in the solar physics community to test whether or not measured photospheric or chromospheric vector magnetograms are force-free, using the Maxwell stress as a measure. Some previous studies have suggested that magnetic fields of active regions in the solar chromosphere are close to being force-free whereas there is no consistency among previous studies on whether magnetic fields of active regions in the solar photosphere are force-free or not. Here we use three kinds of representative magnetic fields (analytical force-free solutions, modeled solar-like force-free fields, and observed non-force-free fields) to discuss how measurement issues such as limited field of view (FOV), instrument sensitivity, and measurement error could affect the estimation of force-freeness based on observed magnetograms. Unlike previous studies that focus on discussing the effect of limited FOV or instrument sensitivity, our calculation shows that just measurement error alone can significantly influence the results of estimates of force-freeness, due to the fact that measurement errors in horizontal magnetic fields are usually ten times larger than those in vertical fields. This property of measurement errors, interacting with the particular form of a formula for estimating force-freeness, would result in wrong judgments of the force-freeness: a truly force-free field may be mistakenly estimated as being non-force-free and a truly non-force-free field may be estimated as being force-free. Our analysis calls for caution when interpreting estimates of force-freeness based on measured magnetograms, and also suggests that the true photospheric magnetic field may be further away from being force-free than it currently appears to be.

Reverse Shoulder Arthroplasty for the Treatment of Rotator Cuff Deficiency: A Concise Follow-up, at a Minimum of 10 Years, of Previous Reports.

Science.gov (United States)

Cuff, Derek J; Pupello, Derek R; Santoni, Brandon G; Clark, Rachel E; Frankle, Mark A

2017-11-15

We previously evaluated 94 patients (96 shoulders) who underwent reverse shoulder arthroplasty using a central compressive screw with 5.0-mm peripheral locking screws for baseplate fixation and a center of rotation lateral to the glenoid as treatment for end-stage rotator cuff deficiency. The purpose of this study was to report updated results at a minimum follow-up of 10 years. Forty patients (42 shoulders) were available for clinical follow-up. In the patients available for study, implant survivorship, with the end point being revision for any reason, was 90.7%. Since our 5-year report, 2 patients underwent revision surgery; 1 patient sustained a periprosthetic fracture 7 years postoperatively and 1 patient had a dislocation because of chronic shoulder instability at 8 years postoperatively. At a minimum follow-up of 10 years, the patients continued to maintain their improved outcome scores and range of motion, which were comparable with earlier follow-up evaluations. Therapeutic Level IV. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

The cost of crime to society: new crime-specific estimates for policy and program evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

McCollister, Kathryn E; French, Michael T; Fang, Hai

2010-04-01

Estimating the cost to society of individual crimes is essential to the economic evaluation of many social programs, such as substance abuse treatment and community policing. A review of the crime-costing literature reveals multiple sources, including published articles and government reports, which collectively represent the alternative approaches for estimating the economic losses associated with criminal activity. Many of these sources are based upon data that are more than 10 years old, indicating a need for updated figures. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for calculating the cost to society of various criminal acts. Tangible and intangible losses are estimated using the most current data available. The selected approach, which incorporates both the cost-of-illness and the jury compensation methods, yields cost estimates for more than a dozen major crime categories, including several categories not found in previous studies. Updated crime cost estimates can help government agencies and other organizations execute more prudent policy evaluations, particularly benefit-cost analyses of substance abuse treatment or other interventions that reduce crime. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mammalian Cell Culture Process for Monoclonal Antibody Production: Nonlinear Modelling and Parameter Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan Selişteanu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs are at present one of the fastest growing products of pharmaceutical industry, with widespread applications in biochemistry, biology, and medicine. The operation of mAbs production processes is predominantly based on empirical knowledge, the improvements being achieved by using trial-and-error experiments and precedent practices. The nonlinearity of these processes and the absence of suitable instrumentation require an enhanced modelling effort and modern kinetic parameter estimation strategies. The present work is dedicated to nonlinear dynamic modelling and parameter estimation for a mammalian cell culture process used for mAb production. By using a dynamical model of such kind of processes, an optimization-based technique for estimation of kinetic parameters in the model of mammalian cell culture process is developed. The estimation is achieved as a result of minimizing an error function by a particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm. The proposed estimation approach is analyzed in this work by using a particular model of mammalian cell culture, as a case study, but is generic for this class of bioprocesses. The presented case study shows that the proposed parameter estimation technique provides a more accurate simulation of the experimentally observed process behaviour than reported in previous studies.

Effect size estimates: current use, calculations, and interpretation.

Science.gov (United States)

Fritz, Catherine O; Morris, Peter E; Richler, Jennifer J

2012-02-01

The Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association (American Psychological Association, 2001, American Psychological Association, 2010) calls for the reporting of effect sizes and their confidence intervals. Estimates of effect size are useful for determining the practical or theoretical importance of an effect, the relative contributions of factors, and the power of an analysis. We surveyed articles published in 2009 and 2010 in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, noting the statistical analyses reported and the associated reporting of effect size estimates. Effect sizes were reported for fewer than half of the analyses; no article reported a confidence interval for an effect size. The most often reported analysis was analysis of variance, and almost half of these reports were not accompanied by effect sizes. Partial η2 was the most commonly reported effect size estimate for analysis of variance. For t tests, 2/3 of the articles did not report an associated effect size estimate; Cohen's d was the most often reported. We provide a straightforward guide to understanding, selecting, calculating, and interpreting effect sizes for many types of data and to methods for calculating effect size confidence intervals and power analysis.

Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhu; Guan, Dabo; Wei, Wei; Davis, Steven J; Ciais, Philippe; Bai, Jin; Peng, Shushi; Zhang, Qiang; Hubacek, Klaus; Marland, Gregg; Andres, Robert J; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Lin, Jintai; Zhao, Hongyan; Hong, Chaopeng; Boden, Thomas A; Feng, Kuishuang; Peters, Glen P; Xi, Fengming; Liu, Junguo; Li, Yuan; Zhao, Yu; Zeng, Ning; He, Kebin

2015-08-20

Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China. Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China's total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China's carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption and clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000-2012 than the value reported by China's national statistics, that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and that emissions from China's cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates. Altogether, our revised estimate of China's CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = ±7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories. Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China's cumulative carbon emissions. Our findings suggest that overestimation of China's emissions in 2000-2013 may be larger than China's estimated total forest sink in 1990-2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon) or China's land carbon sink in 2000-2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon).

Malware Function Estimation Using API in Initial Behavior

OpenAIRE

KAWAGUCHI, Naoto; OMOTE, Kazumasa

2017-01-01

Malware proliferation has become a serious threat to the Internet in recent years. Most current malware are subspecies of existing malware that have been automatically generated by illegal tools. To conduct an efficient analysis of malware, estimating their functions in advance is effective when we give priority to analyze malware. However, estimating the malware functions has been difficult due to the increasing sophistication of malware. Actually, the previous researches do not estimate the...

Population estimation and trappability of the European badger (Meles meles: implications for tuberculosis management.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew W Byrne

Full Text Available Estimates of population size and trappability inform vaccine efficacy modelling and are required for adaptive management during prolonged wildlife vaccination campaigns. We present an analysis of mark-recapture data from a badger vaccine (Bacille Calmette-Guérin study in Ireland. This study is the largest scale (755 km(2 mark-recapture study ever undertaken with this species. The study area was divided into three approximately equal-sized zones, each with similar survey and capture effort. A mean badger population size of 671 (SD: 76 was estimated using a closed-subpopulation model (CSpM based on data from capturing sessions of the entire area and was consistent with a separate multiplicative model. Minimum number alive estimates calculated from the same data were on average 49-51% smaller than the CSpM estimates, but these are considered severely negatively biased when trappability is low. Population densities derived from the CSpM estimates were 0.82-1.06 badgers km(-2, and broadly consistent with previous reports for an adjacent area. Mean trappability was estimated to be 34-35% per session across the population. By the fifth capture session, 79% of the adult badgers caught had been marked previously. Multivariable modelling suggested significant differences in badger trappability depending on zone, season and age-class. There were more putatively trap-wary badgers identified in the population than trap-happy badgers, but wariness was not related to individual's sex, zone or season of capture. Live-trapping efficacy can vary significantly amongst sites, seasons, age, or personality, hence monitoring of trappability is recommended as part of an adaptive management regime during large-scale wildlife vaccination programs to counter biases and to improve efficiencies.

Estimated ground-water recharge from streamflow in Fortymile Wash near Yucca Mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Savard, C.S.

1998-01-01

The two purposes of this report are to qualitatively document ground-water recharge from stream-flow in Fortymile Wash during the period 1969--95 from previously unpublished ground-water levels in boreholes in Fortymile Canyon during 1982--91 and 1995, and to quantitatively estimate the long-term ground-water recharge rate from streamflow in Fortymile Wash for four reaches of Fortymile Wash (Fortymile Canyon, upper Jackass Flats, lower Jackass Flats, and Amargosa Desert). The long-term groundwater recharge rate was estimated from estimates of the volume of water available for infiltration, the volume of infiltration losses from streamflow, the ground-water recharge volume from infiltration losses, and an analysis of the different periods of data availability. The volume of water available for infiltration and ground-water recharge in the four reaches was estimated from known streamflow in ephemeral Fortymile Wash, which was measured at several gaging station locations. The volume of infiltration losses from streamflow for the four reaches was estimated from a streamflow volume loss factor applied to the estimated streamflows. the ground-water recharge volume was estimated from a linear relation between infiltration loss volume and ground-water recharge volume for each of the four reaches. Ground-water recharge rates were estimated for three different periods of data availability (1969--95, 1983--95, and 1992--95) and a long-term ground-water recharge rate estimated for each of the four reaches

Estimated ground-water recharge from streamflow in Fortymile Wash near Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Savard, C.S.

1998-10-01

The two purposes of this report are to qualitatively document ground-water recharge from stream-flow in Fortymile Wash during the period 1969--95 from previously unpublished ground-water levels in boreholes in Fortymile Canyon during 1982--91 and 1995, and to quantitatively estimate the long-term ground-water recharge rate from streamflow in Fortymile Wash for four reaches of Fortymile Wash (Fortymile Canyon, upper Jackass Flats, lower Jackass Flats, and Amargosa Desert). The long-term groundwater recharge rate was estimated from estimates of the volume of water available for infiltration, the volume of infiltration losses from streamflow, the ground-water recharge volume from infiltration losses, and an analysis of the different periods of data availability. The volume of water available for infiltration and ground-water recharge in the four reaches was estimated from known streamflow in ephemeral Fortymile Wash, which was measured at several gaging station locations. The volume of infiltration losses from streamflow for the four reaches was estimated from a streamflow volume loss factor applied to the estimated streamflows. the ground-water recharge volume was estimated from a linear relation between infiltration loss volume and ground-water recharge volume for each of the four reaches. Ground-water recharge rates were estimated for three different periods of data availability (1969--95, 1983--95, and 1992--95) and a long-term ground-water recharge rate estimated for each of the four reaches.

Estimating the Costs of Preventive Interventions

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, E. Michael; Porter, Michele M.; Ayers, Tim S.; Kaplan, Debra L.; Sandler, Irwin

2007-01-01

The goal of this article is to improve the practice and reporting of cost estimates of prevention programs. It reviews the steps in estimating the costs of an intervention and the principles that should guide estimation. The authors then review prior efforts to estimate intervention costs using a sample of well-known but diverse studies. Finally,…

Robust bearing estimation for 3-component stations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

CLAASSEN, JOHN P.

2000-01-01

A robust bearing estimation process for 3-component stations has been developed and explored. The method, called SEEC for Search, Estimate, Evaluate and Correct, intelligently exploits the inherent information in the arrival at every step of the process to achieve near-optimal results. In particular the approach uses a consistent framework to define the optimal time-frequency windows on which to make estimates, to make the bearing estimates themselves, to construct metrics helpful in choosing the better estimates or admitting that the bearing is immeasurable, and finally to apply bias corrections when calibration information is available to yield a single final estimate. The algorithm was applied to a small but challenging set of events in a seismically active region. It demonstrated remarkable utility by providing better estimates and insights than previously available. Various monitoring implications are noted from these findings

Graphs to estimate an individualized risk of breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Benichou, J; Gail, M H; Mulvihill, J J

1996-01-01

Clinicians who counsel women about their risk for developing breast cancer need a rapid method to estimate individualized risk (absolute risk), as well as the confidence limits around that point. The Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP) model (sometimes called the Gail model) assumes no genetic model and simultaneously incorporates five risk factors, but involves cumbersome calculations and interpolations. This report provides graphs to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer from the BCDDP model. The BCDDP recruited 280,000 women from 1973 to 1980 who were monitored for 5 years. From this cohort, 2,852 white women developed breast cancer and 3,146 controls were selected, all with complete risk-factor information. The BCDDP model, previously developed from these data, was used to prepare graphs that relate a specific summary relative-risk estimate to the absolute risk of developing breast cancer over intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years. Once a summary relative risk is calculated, the appropriate graph is chosen that shows the 10-, 20-, or 30-year absolute risk of developing breast cancer. A separate graph gives the 95% confidence limits around the point estimate of absolute risk. Once a clinician rules out a single gene trait that predisposes to breast cancer and elicits information on age and four risk factors, the tables and figures permit an estimation of a women's absolute risk of developing breast cancer in the next three decades. These results are intended to be applied to women who undergo regular screening. They should be used only in a formal counseling program to maximize a woman's understanding of the estimates and the proper use of them.

New population-based exome data are questioning the pathogenicity of previously cardiomyopathy-associated genetic variants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andreasen, Charlotte Hartig; Nielsen, Jonas B; Refsgaard, Lena

2013-01-01

Cardiomyopathies are a heterogeneous group of diseases with various etiologies. We focused on three genetically determined cardiomyopathies: hypertrophic (HCM), dilated (DCM), and arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC). Eighty-four genes have so far been associated with these card......Cardiomyopathies are a heterogeneous group of diseases with various etiologies. We focused on three genetically determined cardiomyopathies: hypertrophic (HCM), dilated (DCM), and arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC). Eighty-four genes have so far been associated...... with these cardiomyopathies, but the disease-causing effect of reported variants is often dubious. In order to identify possible false-positive variants, we investigated the prevalence of previously reported cardiomyopathy-associated variants in recently published exome data. We searched for reported missense and nonsense...... variants in the NHLBI-Go Exome Sequencing Project (ESP) containing exome data from 6500 individuals. In ESP, we identified 94 variants out of 687 (14%) variants previously associated with HCM, 58 out of 337 (17%) variants associated with DCM, and 38 variants out of 209 (18%) associated with ARVC...

Diesel-generator reliability at nuclear power plants: data and preliminary analysis. Interim report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McClymont, A.; McLagan, G.

1982-06-01

This report summarizes work performed under RP1233-1 relating to the collection and analysis of data pertaining to diesel generator reliability in nuclear power plants. Drawing from data collected on-site at plants, data supplied by utilites, and data from Licensee Event Reports (LERs), the report describes methods of deriving reliability estimates from data for use in probabilistic risk assessment and presents results when these methods are applied to data collected from 14 plants. Specifically, data are used to estimate diesel failure probabilities for failures to start and failure rates for failures to continue to run. A sampling theory approach and a Bayesian approach to failure probability estimation are compared. The data are used to derive estimates of diesel repair time for some plants, maintenance outages, and multiple diesel failure rates. In addition, a section is included that presents suggestions for failure-rate estimation when an accurate count of diesel start attempts at a plant is not available. The final section presents an analysis of diesel failures based on data from LERs, including a breakdown of failure event by subsystem, failure mode, and failure cause. Appendixes include detailed summaries of the data used in the analysis of previous sections

ENERGY AND PROTEIN REQUIREMENTS OF GROWING PELIBUEY SHEEP UNDER TROPICAL CONDITIONS ESTIMATED FROM A LITERATURE DATABASE ANALYSES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando Duarte

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Data from previous studies were used to estimate the metabolizable energy and protein requirements for maintenance and growth and basal metabolism energy requirement of male Pelibuey sheep under tropical conditions were estimated. In addition, empty body weight and mature weight of males and female Pelibuey sheep were also estimated. Basal metabolism energy requirements were estimated with the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System – Sheep (CNCPS-S model using the a1 factor of the maintenance equation. Mature weight was estimated to be 69 kg for males and 45 kg for females. Empty body weight was estimated to be 81% of live weight. Metabolizable energy and protein requirements for growth were 0.106 Mcal MEm/kg LW0.75 and 2.4 g MP/kg LW0.75 for males. The collected information did not allowed appropriate estimation of female requirements. The basal metabolism energy requirement was estimated to be 0.039 Mcal MEm/kg LW0.75. Energy requirements for basal metabolism were lower in Pelibuey sheep than those reported for wool breeds even though their total requirements were similar.

Increased Symptom Reporting in Young Athletes Based on History of Previous Concussions.

Science.gov (United States)

Moser, Rosemarie Scolaro; Schatz, Philip

2017-01-01

Research documents increased symptoms in adolescents with a history of two or more concussions. This study examined baseline evaluations of 2,526 younger athletes, ages 10 to 14. Between-groups analyses examined Post Concussion Symptom Scale symptoms by concussion history group (None, One, Two+) and clusters of Physical, Cognitive, Emotional, and Sleep symptoms. Healthy younger athletes with a concussion history reported greater physical, emotional, and sleep-related symptoms than those with no history of concussion, with a greater endorsement in physical/sleep symptom clusters. Findings suggest younger athletes with a history of multiple concussions may experience residual symptoms.

Honesty-humility in contemporary students: manipulations of self-image by inflated IQ estimations.

Science.gov (United States)

Kajonius, P J

2014-08-01

The HEXACO model offers a complement to the Big Five model, including a sixth factor, Honesty-Humility, and its four facets (Sincerity, Fairness, Greed-avoidance, and Modesty). The four facets of Honesty-Humility and three indicators of intelligence (one performance-based cognitive ability test, one self-estimated academic potential, and one self-report of previous IQ test results) were assessed in students entering higher education (N = 187). A significant negative correlation was observed between Honesty-Humility and self-reported intelligence (r = -.37), most evident in the Modesty facet. These results may be interpreted as tendencies of exaggeration, using a theoretical frame of psychological image-management, concluding that the Honesty-Humility trait captures students' self-ambitions, particularly within the context of an individualistic, competitive culture such as Sweden.

Methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on data through water year 2011: Chapter F in Montana StreamStats

Science.gov (United States)

Sando, Roy; Sando, Steven K.; McCarthy, Peter M.; Dutton, DeAnn M.

2016-04-05

this study were compared with results of previous studies. For most hydrologic regions, the regression equations reported for this study had lower mean standard errors of prediction (in percent) than the previously reported regression equations for Montana. The equations presented for this study are considered to be an improvement on the previously reported equations primarily because this study (1) included 13 more years of peak-flow data; (2) included 35 more streamflow-gaging stations than previous studies; (3) used a detailed geographic information system (GIS)-based definition of the regulation status of streamflow-gaging stations, which allowed better determination of the unregulated peak-flow records that are appropriate for use in the regional regression analysis; (4) included advancements in GIS and remote-sensing technologies, which allowed more convenient calculation of basin characteristics and investigation of many more candidate basin characteristics; and (5) included advancements in computational and analytical methods, which allowed more thorough and consistent data analysis.This report chapter also presents other methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites. Two methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites located on the same streams as streamflow-gaging stations are described. Additionally, envelope curves relating maximum recorded annual peak flows to contributing drainage area for each of the eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented and compared to a national envelope curve. In addition to providing general information on characteristics of large peak flows, the regional envelope curves can be used to assess the reasonableness of peak-flow frequency estimates determined using the regression equations.

Urinary tract infections in hospital pediatrics: many previous antibiotherapy and antibiotics resistance, including fluoroquinolones.

Science.gov (United States)

Garraffo, A; Marguet, C; Checoury, A; Boyer, S; Gardrat, A; Houivet, E; Caron, F

2014-02-01

We studied antibiotic resistance in pediatric UTIs and we evaluated the impact of antibiotic exposure in the previous 12 months, very little French data being available for this population. We conducted a multicenter prospective study including children consulting for, or admitted in 2 hospitals. Prior antibiotic exposure was documented from their health record. One hundred and ten patients (73 girls), 11 days to 12 years of age, were included in 10 months. Ninety-six percent presented with pyelonephritis, associated to uropathy for 25%. Escherichia coli was predominant (78%), followed by Proteus spp. and Enterococcus spp. The antibiotic resistance rate of E. coli was high and close to that reported for adults with complicated UTIs: amoxicillin 60%, amoxicillin-clavulanate 35%, cefotaxim 5%, trimethoprim-sulfametoxazole 26%, nalidixic acid 9%, ciprofloxacin 7%, gentamycin 1%, nitrofurantoin and fosfomycin 0%. The antibiotic exposure in the previous 12 months involved 62 children (56%) most frequently with β-lactams (89%) for a respiratory tract infection (56%). A clear relationship between exposure and resistance was observed for amoxicillin (71% vs. 46%), first generation (65% vs. 46%) and third generation (9% vs. 3%) cephalosporins, or trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (36% vs. 15%). However, antibiotic exposure could not account alone for the results, as suggested by the 7% of ciprofloxacin resistance, observed without any identified previous treatment. Bacterial species and antibiotic resistance level in children are similar to those reported for adults. Antibiotic exposure in the previous 12 months increases the risk of resistance but other factors are involved (previous antibiotic therapies and fecal-oral or mother-to-child transmission). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Parameter estimation and characterization of a single-chamber microbial fuel cell for dairy wastewater treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sedaqatvand, Ramin; Nasr Esfahany, Mohsen; Behzad, Tayebeh; Mohseni, Madjid; Mardanpour, Mohammad Mahdi

2013-10-01

In this study, for the first time, the conduction-based model is extended, and then combined with Genetic Algorithm to estimate the design parameters of a MFC treating dairy wastewater. The optimized parameters are, then, validated. The estimated half-saturation potential of -0.13 V (vs. SHE) is in good agreement while the biofilm conductivity of 8.76×10(-4) mS cm(-1) is three orders of magnitude lower than that previously-reported for pure-culture biofilm. Simulations show that the ohmic and concentration overpotentials contribute almost equally in dropping cell voltage in which the concentration film and biofilm conductivity comprise the main resistances, respectively. Thus, polarization analysis and determining the controlling steps will be possible through that developed extension. This study introduces a reliable method to estimate the design parameters of a particular MFC and to characterize it. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

National Diet and Nutrition Survey: fat and fatty acid intakes from the first year of the rolling programme and comparison with previous surveys

Science.gov (United States)

Pot, Gerda K.; Prynne, Celia J.; Roberts, Caireen; Olson, Ashley; Nicholson, Sonja K.; Whitton, Clare; Teucher, Birgit; Bates, Beverley; Henderson, Helen; Pigott, Sarah; Swan, Gillian; Stephen, Alison M.

2012-01-01

High saturated fat intake is an established risk factor for several chronic diseases. The objective of the present study is to report dietary intakes and main food sources of fat and fatty acids (FA) from the first year of the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) rolling programme in the UK. Dietary data were collected using 4d estimated food diaries (n896) and compared with dietary reference values (DRV) and previous NDNS results. Total fat provided 34–36% food energy (FE) across all age groups, which was similar to previous surveys for adults. Men (19–64 years) and older girls (11–18 years) had mean intakes just above the DRV, while all other groups had mean total fat intakes of <35% FE. SFA intakes were lower compared with previous surveys, ranging from 13 to 15% FE, but still above the DRV. Mean MUFA intakes were 12.5% FE for adults and children aged 4–18 years and all were below the DRV. Mean n–3 PUFA intake represented 0.7–1.1% FE. Compared with previous survey data, the direction of change for n–3 PUFA was upwards for all age groups, although the differences in absolute terms were very small. Trans-FA intakes were lower than in previous NDNS and were less than 2g/d for all age groups, representing 0.8% FE and lower than the DRV in all age groups. In conclusion, dietary intake of fat and FA is moving towards recommended levels for the UK population. However, there remains room for considerable further improvement. PMID:21767448

Multi-channel PSD Estimators for Speech Dereverberation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kuklasinski, Adam; Doclo, Simon; Gerkmann, Timo

2015-01-01

densities (PSDs). We first derive closed-form expressions for the mean square error (MSE) of both PSD estimators and then show that one estimator – previously used for speech dereverberation by the authors – always yields a better MSE. Only in the case of a two microphone array or for special spatial...... distributions of the interference both estimators yield the same MSE. The theoretically derived MSE values are in good agreement with numerical simulation results and with instrumental speech quality measures in a realistic speech dereverberation task for binaural hearing aids....

The impact of using weight estimated from mammographic images vs. self-reported weight on breast cancer risk calculation

Science.gov (United States)

Nair, Kalyani P.; Harkness, Elaine F.; Gadde, Soujanye; Lim, Yit Y.; Maxwell, Anthony J.; Moschidis, Emmanouil; Foden, Philip; Cuzick, Jack; Brentnall, Adam; Evans, D. Gareth; Howell, Anthony; Astley, Susan M.

2017-03-01

Personalised breast screening requires assessment of individual risk of breast cancer, of which one contributory factor is weight. Self-reported weight has been used for this purpose, but may be unreliable. We explore the use of volume of fat in the breast, measured from digital mammograms. Volumetric breast density measurements were used to determine the volume of fat in the breasts of 40,431 women taking part in the Predicting Risk Of Cancer At Screening (PROCAS) study. Tyrer-Cuzick risk using self-reported weight was calculated for each woman. Weight was also estimated from the relationship between self-reported weight and breast fat volume in the cohort, and used to re-calculate Tyrer-Cuzick risk. Women were assigned to risk categories according to 10 year risk (below average =8%) and the original and re-calculated Tyrer-Cuzick risks were compared. Of the 716 women diagnosed with breast cancer during the study, 15 (2.1%) moved into a lower risk category, and 37 (5.2%) moved into a higher category when using weight estimated from breast fat volume. Of the 39,715 women without a cancer diagnosis, 1009 (2.5%) moved into a lower risk category, and 1721 (4.3%) into a higher risk category. The majority of changes were between below average and average risk categories (38.5% of those with a cancer diagnosis, and 34.6% of those without). No individual moved more than one risk group. Automated breast fat measures may provide a suitable alternative to self-reported weight for risk assessment in personalized screening.

Tracking using motion estimation with physically motivated inter-region constraints

KAUST Repository

Arif, Omar; Sundaramoorthi, Ganesh; Hong, Byungwoo; Yezzi, Anthony J.

2014-01-01

We propose a method for tracking structures (e.g., ventricles and myocardium) in cardiac images (e.g., magnetic resonance) by propagating forward in time a previous estimate of the structures using a new physically motivated motion estimation scheme

Prospective monitoring and self-report of previous falls among older women at high risk of falls and fractures: a study of comparison and agreement.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, Patrícia A; Dias, João M D; Silva, Silvia L A; Dias, Rosângela C

2015-01-01

The identification of the occurrence of falls is an important step for screening and for rehabilitation processes for the elderly. The methods of monitoring these events are susceptible to recording biases, and the choice of the most accurate method remains challenging. (i) To investigate the agreement between retrospective self-reporting and prospective monitoring of methods of recording falls, and (ii) to compare the retrospective self-reporting of falls and the prospective monitoring of falls and recurrent falls over a 12-month period among older women at high risk of falls and fractures. A total of 118 community-dwelling older women with low bone density were recruited. The incidence of falls was monitored prospectively in 116 older women (2 losses) via monthly phone calls over the course of a year. At the end of this monitoring period, the older women were asked about their recall of falls in the same 12-month period. The agreement between the two methods was analyzed, and the sensitivity and specificity of self-reported previous falls in relation to the prospective monitoring were calculated. There was moderate agreement between the prospective monitoring and the retrospective self-reporting of falls in classifying fallers (Kappa = 0.595) and recurrent fallers (Kappa = 0.589). The limits of agreement were 0.35 ± 1.66 falls. The self-reporting of prior falls had a 67.2% sensitivity and a 94.2% specificity in classifying fallers among older women and a 50% sensitivity and a 98.9% specificity in classifying recurrent fallers. Self-reporting of falls over a 12-month period underestimated 32.8% of falls and 50% of recurrent falls. The findings recommend caution if one is considering replacing monthly monitoring with annual retrospective questioning.

Methane and fertilizer production from seaweed biomass. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Betzer, P.R.; Humm, H.J.

1984-01-01

It was demonstrated that several varieties of abundant benthic algae indigenous to Tampa Bay (Gracilaria, Hypnea, and Ulva) were readily degradable via anaerobic digestion to methane. The energy yield per unit weight biomass degraded was higher than any previously reported. Given the large masses of readily degradable plants which are annually produced in and around Tampa Bay, the resource is estimated to be at least equivalent to several million gallons of gasoline.

Illegal Alien Schoolchildren: Issues in Estimating State-by-State Costs. Report to the Chairman, Committee on the Judiciary, House of Representatives. GAO-04-733

Science.gov (United States)

Kingsbury, Nancy R.

2004-01-01

To address the potential for estimating the costs of educating illegal alien schoolchildren, this report: identifies major government sources of relevant data; describes a Census Bureau plan for developing new information; and outlines cost-estimation approaches. Data were collected through: a survey of 20 states; outreach through associations of…

Estimating a structured covariance matrix from multi-lab measurements in high-throughput biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Franks, Alexander M; Csárdi, Gábor; Drummond, D Allan; Airoldi, Edoardo M

2015-03-01

We consider the problem of quantifying the degree of coordination between transcription and translation, in yeast. Several studies have reported a surprising lack of coordination over the years, in organisms as different as yeast and human, using diverse technologies. However, a close look at this literature suggests that the lack of reported correlation may not reflect the biology of regulation. These reports do not control for between-study biases and structure in the measurement errors, ignore key aspects of how the data connect to the estimand, and systematically underestimate the correlation as a consequence. Here, we design a careful meta-analysis of 27 yeast data sets, supported by a multilevel model, full uncertainty quantification, a suite of sensitivity analyses and novel theory, to produce a more accurate estimate of the correlation between mRNA and protein levels-a proxy for coordination. From a statistical perspective, this problem motivates new theory on the impact of noise, model mis-specifications and non-ignorable missing data on estimates of the correlation between high dimensional responses. We find that the correlation between mRNA and protein levels is quite high under the studied conditions, in yeast, suggesting that post-transcriptional regulation plays a less prominent role than previously thought.

Initial results of CyberKnife treatment for recurrent previously irradiated head and neck cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Himei, Kengo; Katsui, Kuniaki; Yoshida, Atsushi

2003-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of CyberKnife for recurrent previously irradiated head and neck cancer. Thirty-one patients with recurrent previously irradiated head and neck cancer were treated with a CyberKnife from July 1999 to March 2002 at Okayama Kyokuto Hospital were retrospectively studied. The accumulated dose was 28-80 Gy (median 60 Gy). The interval between CyberKnife treatment and previous radiotherapy was 0.4-429.5 months (median 16.3 months). Primary lesions were nasopharynx: 7, maxillary sinus: 6, tongue: 5, ethmoid sinus: 3, and others: 1. The pathology was squamous cell carcinoma: 25, adenoid cystic carcinoma: 4, and others: 2. Symptoms were pain: 8, and nasal bleeding: 2. The prescribed dose was 15.0-40.3 Gy (median 32.3 Gy) as for the marginal dose. The response rate (complete response (CR)+partial response (PR)) and local control rate (CR+PR+no change (NC)) was 74% and 94% respectively. Pain disappeared for 4 cases, relief was obtained for 4 cases and no change for 2 cases and nasal bleeding disappeared for 2 cases for an improvement of symptoms. An adverse effects were observed as mucositis in 5 cases and neck swelling in one case. Prognosis of recurrent previously irradiated head and neck cancer was estimated as poor. Our early experience shows that CyberKnife is expected to be feasible treatment for recurrent previously irradiated head and neck cancer, and for the reduction adverse effects and maintenance of useful quality of life (QOL) for patients. (author)

A comment on "Novel scavenger removal trials increase wind turbine-caused avian fatality estimates"

Science.gov (United States)

Huso, Manuela M.P.; Erickson, Wallace P.

2013-01-01

In a recent paper, Smallwood et al. (2010) conducted a study to compare their “novel” approach to conducting carcass removal trials with what they term the “conventional” approach and to evaluate the effects of the different methods on estimated avian fatality at a wind power facility in California. A quick glance at Table 3 that succinctly summarizes their results and provides estimated fatality rates and 80% confidence intervals calculated using the 2 methods reveals a surprising result. The confidence intervals of all of their estimates and most of the conventional estimates extend below 0. These results imply that wind turbines may have the capacity to create live birds. But a more likely interpretation is that a serious error occurred in the calculation of either the average fatality rate or its standard error or both. Further evaluation of their methods reveals that the scientific basis for concluding that “many estimates of scavenger removal rates prior to [their] study were likely biased low due to scavenger swamping” and “previously reported estimates of avian fatality rates … should be adjusted upwards” was not evident in their analysis and results. Their comparison to conventional approaches was not applicable, their statistical models were questionable, and the conclusions they drew were unsupported.

Observation of lens aberrations for high resolution electron microscopy II: Simple expressions for optimal estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saxton, W. Owen, E-mail: wos1@cam.ac.uk

2015-04-15

This paper lists simple closed-form expressions estimating aberration coefficients (defocus, astigmatism, three-fold astigmatism, coma / misalignment, spherical aberration) on the basis of image shift or diffractogram shape measurements as a function of injected beam tilt. Simple estimators are given for a large number of injected tilt configurations, optimal in the sense of least-squares fitting of all the measurements, and so better than most reported previously. Standard errors are given for most, allowing different approaches to be compared. Special attention is given to the measurement of the spherical aberration, for which several simple procedures are given, and the effect of foreknowledge of this on other aberration estimates is noted. Details and optimal expressions are also given for a new and simple method of analysis, requiring measurements of the diffractogram mirror axis direction only, which are simpler to make than the focus and astigmatism measurements otherwise required. - Highlights: • Optimal estimators for CTEM lens aberrations are more accurate and/or use fewer observations. • Estimators have been found for defocus, astigmatism, three-fold astigmatism, coma and spherical aberration. • Estimators have been found relying on diffractogram shape, image shift and diffractogram orientation only, for a variety of beam tilts. • The standard error for each estimator has been found.

Streptococcus agalactiae endocarditis presenting as acalculous cholecystitis in a previously well woman.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Brewer, Linda

2013-01-01

This case report describes the unusual presentation of a previously very well woman with Streptococcus agalactiae endocarditis in the emergency department. History, examination and preliminary laboratory and radiological investigations supported a diagnosis of acalculous cholecystitis, for which she was given intravenous broad spectrum antimicrobial therapy. One day following admission, the patient deteriorated and became unresponsive. Subsequent MRI of the brain revealed multiple bihemispheric cerebral emboli and a large, mobile mitral valve thrombus was visualised on her transoesophageal echocardiogram. S agalactiae was cultured from venous blood samples and her antimicrobial cover was adjusted accordingly. Despite her presumed guarded prognosis, this patient made a remarkable recovery. To our knowledge, the association of S agalactiae endocarditis with acalculous cholecystitis has not been previously described.

Pregnancy in a Previously Conjoined Thoracopagus Twin with a Crisscross Heart

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bassam H. Rimawi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Crisscross heart (CCH is a complex, rare, congenital, rotational, cardiac abnormality that accounts for <0.1% of congenital heart defects (CHD. CCH is characterized by the crossing of the inflow streams of the two ventricles due to an abnormal twisting of the heart. A case of maternal CCH has not been previously reported. Case. We report a case of a primigravida with a CCH, who was separated at birth from her thoracopagus conjoined twin. Pregnancy was managed by congenital cardiology, maternal-fetal medicine, anesthesiology, and obstetrics. She underwent a 39-week vaginal delivery without maternal or neonatal complication. Conclusion. A successful term pregnancy outcome was achieved in a patient with CCH using a multidisciplinary approach to address her cardiac condition.

Effects of previous growth hormone excess and current medical treatment for acromegaly on cognition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brummelman, Pauline; Koerts, Janneke; Dullaart, Robin P. F.; van den Berg, Gerrit; Tucha, Oliver; Wolffenbuttel, Bruce H. R.; van Beek, Andre P.

2012-01-01

Background In untreated acromegaly patients, decreased cognitive functioning is reported to be associated with the degree of growth hormone (GH) and IGF-1 excess. Whether previous GH excess or current medical treatment for acromegaly specifically affects cognition remains unclear. The aim of this

Estimating the implicit component of visuomotor rotation learning by constraining movement preparation time.

Science.gov (United States)

Leow, Li-Ann; Gunn, Reece; Marinovic, Welber; Carroll, Timothy J

2017-08-01

When sensory feedback is perturbed, accurate movement is restored by a combination of implicit processes and deliberate reaiming to strategically compensate for errors. Here, we directly compare two methods used previously to dissociate implicit from explicit learning on a trial-by-trial basis: 1 ) asking participants to report the direction that they aim their movements, and contrasting this with the directions of the target and the movement that they actually produce, and 2 ) manipulating movement preparation time. By instructing participants to reaim without a sensory perturbation, we show that reaiming is possible even with the shortest possible preparation times, particularly when targets are narrowly distributed. Nonetheless, reaiming is effortful and comes at the cost of increased variability, so we tested whether constraining preparation time is sufficient to suppress strategic reaiming during adaptation to visuomotor rotation with a broad target distribution. The rate and extent of error reduction under preparation time constraints were similar to estimates of implicit learning obtained from self-report without time pressure, suggesting that participants chose not to apply a reaiming strategy to correct visual errors under time pressure. Surprisingly, participants who reported aiming directions showed less implicit learning according to an alternative measure, obtained during trials performed without visual feedback. This suggests that the process of reporting can affect the extent or persistence of implicit learning. The data extend existing evidence that restricting preparation time can suppress explicit reaiming and provide an estimate of implicit visuomotor rotation learning that does not require participants to report their aiming directions. NEW & NOTEWORTHY During sensorimotor adaptation, implicit error-driven learning can be isolated from explicit strategy-driven reaiming by subtracting self-reported aiming directions from movement directions, or

Revision and simplification of the boarding previous minimum of the lumbar column

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lazannec, JY; Del Vecchio, R; Ramare, S; Saillant, G

2001-01-01

This paper describes the boarding retroperineal previous minimum, which provides access at any level discal and vertebral between T12 and S1. It is carried out a technique of dissection retroperineal that facilitates the renal and duodenum-pancreatic mobilization to consent to the face previous left of the whole lumbar column and of the thoracic-lumbar union. They were carried out careful anatomical dissections in fresh cadavers and preserved to determine the topography and the anatomical relationships of interest and this way to develop a sure boarding and easily reproducible. Special attention has been paid to the description of the lumbar veins and the anastomosis between the vein renal left and the hemiacigos system for the exhibition of the expensive left anterolateral of T12 and L1. A series of 94 patients is reported with lesions caused by traumas or degenerative processes. For all the lumbar levels, even in-patient with antecedents of surgery intraperitoneal, the boarding minimum retroperitoneal, was safe for the kidneys, ureters, spleen, hypo gastric plexus and duodenum-pancreatic union. Better cosmetic results are reported, decrease of the time surgical, scarce bled intraoperatory and easiness for the decortications and placement of implants. The previous boarding minimum retro peritoneal of the column developed starting from the boarding classic retroperineals, offers significant advantages on the endoscopic techniques, which require sophisticated machinery and they are technically plaintiffs. The exhibition of all the lumbar levels, as well as the reduction maneuvers and placement of implants, they can be carried out with easiness without causing muscular damage

Dose Estimation from Daily and Weekly Dosimetry Data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ostrouchov, G.

2001-01-01

Statistical analyses of data from epidemiologic studies of workers exposed to radiation have been based on recorded annual radiation doses (yearly dose of record). It is usually assumed that the dose values are known exactly, although it is generally recognized that the data contain uncertainty due to measurement error and bias. In our previous work with weekly data, a probability distribution was used to describe an individual's dose during a specific period of time and statistical methods were developed for estimating it from weekly film dosimetry data. This study showed that the yearly dose of record systematically underestimates doses for Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) workers. This could result in biased estimates of dose-response coefficients and their standard errors. The results of this evaluation raise serious questions about the suitability of the yearly dose of record for direct use in low-dose studies of nuclear industry workers. Here, we extend our previous work to use full information in Pocket meter data and develop the Data Synthesis for Individual Dose Estimation (DSIDE) methodology. Although the DSIDE methodology in this study is developed in the context of daily and weekly data to produce a cumulative yearly dose estimate, in principle it is completely general and can be extended to other time period and measurement combinations. The new methodology takes into account the ''measurement error'' that is produced by the film and pocket-meter dosimetry systems, the biases introduced by policies that lead to recording left-censored doses as zeros, and other measurement and recording practices. The DSIDE method is applied to a sample of dose histories obtained from hard copy dosimetry records at ORNL for the years 1945 to 1955. First, the rigorous addition of daily pocket-meter information shows that the negative bias is generally more severe than was reported in our work based on weekly film data only, however, the amount of bias also varies

Dose Estimation from Daily and Weekly Dosimetry Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ostrouchov, G.

2001-11-16

Statistical analyses of data from epidemiologic studies of workers exposed to radiation have been based on recorded annual radiation doses (yearly dose of record). It is usually assumed that the dose values are known exactly, although it is generally recognized that the data contain uncertainty due to measurement error and bias. In our previous work with weekly data, a probability distribution was used to describe an individual's dose during a specific period of time and statistical methods were developed for estimating it from weekly film dosimetry data. This study showed that the yearly dose of record systematically underestimates doses for Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) workers. This could result in biased estimates of dose-response coefficients and their standard errors. The results of this evaluation raise serious questions about the suitability of the yearly dose of record for direct use in low-dose studies of nuclear industry workers. Here, we extend our previous work to use full information in Pocket meter data and develop the Data Synthesis for Individual Dose Estimation (DSIDE) methodology. Although the DSIDE methodology in this study is developed in the context of daily and weekly data to produce a cumulative yearly dose estimate, in principle it is completely general and can be extended to other time period and measurement combinations. The new methodology takes into account the ''measurement error'' that is produced by the film and pocket-meter dosimetry systems, the biases introduced by policies that lead to recording left-censored doses as zeros, and other measurement and recording practices. The DSIDE method is applied to a sample of dose histories obtained from hard copy dosimetry records at ORNL for the years 1945 to 1955. First, the rigorous addition of daily pocket-meter information shows that the negative bias is generally more severe than was reported in our work based on weekly film data only, however, the

Long-term effects of previous oxandrolone treatment in adult women with Turner syndrome

NARCIS (Netherlands)

K. Freriks (Kim); T.C.J. Sas (Theo); T. Traas (Theo); R.T. Netea-Maier (Romana ); M. den Heijer (Martin); A.R.M.M. Hermus (Ad); J.M. Wit (Jan); J.A.E.M. Van Alfen-van Der Velden (Janiëlle A. E.); B.J. Otten (Barto); S.M.P.F. de Muinck Keizer-Schrama (Sabine); M. Gotthardt (Martin); P.H. Dejonckere (Philippe); G.R.J. Zandwijken (Gladys); L.A. Menke (Leonie); H.J.L.M. Timmers

2013-01-01

textabstractObjective: Short stature is a prominent feature of Turner syndrome (TS), which is partially overcome by GH treatment. We have previously reported the results of a trial on the effect of oxandrolone (Ox) in girls with TS. Ox in a dose of 0.03 mg/kg per day (Ox 0.03) significantly

V2676 Oph: Estimating Physical Parameters of a Moderately Fast Nova

Science.gov (United States)

Raj, A.; Pavana, M.; Kamath, U. S.; Anupama, G. C.; Walter, F. M.

2018-03-01

Using our previously reported observations, we derive some physical parameters of the moderately fast nova V2676 Oph 2012 #1. The best-fit Cloudy model of the nebular spectrum obtained on 2015 May 8 shows a hot white dwarf source with TBB≍1.0×105 K having a luminosity of 1.0×1038 erg/s. Our abundance analysis shows that the ejecta are significantly enhanced relative to solar, He/H=2.14, O/H=2.37, S/H=6.62 and Ar/H=3.25. The ejecta mass is estimated to be 1.42×10-5 M⊙. The nova showed a pronounced dust formation phase after 90 d from discovery. The J-H and H-K colors were very large as compared to other molecule- and dust-forming novae in recent years. The dust temperature and mass at two epochs have been estimated from spectral energy distribution fits to infrared photometry.

Online Kinematic and Dynamic-State Estimation for Constrained Multibody Systems Based on IMUs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Luis Torres-Moreno

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This article addresses the problems of online estimations of kinematic and dynamic states of a mechanism from a sequence of noisy measurements. In particular, we focus on a planar four-bar linkage equipped with inertial measurement units (IMUs. Firstly, we describe how the position, velocity, and acceleration of all parts of the mechanism can be derived from IMU signals by means of multibody kinematics. Next, we propose the novel idea of integrating the generic multibody dynamic equations into two variants of Kalman filtering, i.e., the extended Kalman filter (EKF and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF, in a way that enables us to handle closed-loop, constrained mechanisms, whose state space variables are not independent and would normally prevent the direct use of such estimators. The proposal in this work is to apply those estimators over the manifolds of allowed positions and velocities, by means of estimating a subset of independent coordinates only. The proposed techniques are experimentally validated on a testbed equipped with encoders as a means of establishing the ground-truth. Estimators are run online in real-time, a feature not matched by any previous procedure of those reported in the literature on multibody dynamics.

Estimating mercury emissions resulting from wildfire in forests of the Western United States

Science.gov (United States)

Webster, Jackson; Kane, Tyler J.; Obrist, Daniel; Ryan, Joseph N.; Aiken, George R.

2016-01-01

Understanding the emissions of mercury (Hg) from wildfires is important for quantifying the global atmospheric Hg sources. Emissions of Hg from soils resulting from wildfires in the Western United States was estimated for the 2000 to 2013 period, and the potential emission of Hg from forest soils was assessed as a function of forest type and soil-heating. Wildfire released an annual average of 3100 ± 1900 kg-Hg y− 1 for the years spanning 2000–2013 in the 11 states within the study area. This estimate is nearly 5-fold lower than previous estimates for the study region. Lower emission estimates are attributed to an inclusion of fire severity within burn perimeters. Within reported wildfire perimeters, the average distribution of low, moderate, and high severity burns was 52, 29, and 19% of the total area, respectively. Review of literature data suggests that that low severity burning does not result in soil heating, moderate severity fire results in shallow soil heating, and high severity fire results in relatively deep soil heating ( wood > foliage > litter > branches.

Risk information in support of cost estimates for the Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR). Section 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gelston, G.M.; Jarvis, M.F.; Warren, B.R.; Von Berg, R.

1995-06-01

The Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL)(1) effort on the overall Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR) project consists of four installation-specific work components performed in succession. These components include (1) development of source terms, 92) collection of data and preparation of environmental settings reports, (3) calculation of unit risk factors, and (4) utilization of the unit risk factors in Automated Remedial Action Methodology (ARAM) for computation of target concentrations and cost estimates. This report documents work completed for the Nevada Test Site, Nevada, for components 2 and 3. The product of this phase of the BEMR project is the development of unit factors (i.e., unit transport factors, unit exposure factors, and unit risk factors). Thousands of these unit factors are gene rated and fill approximately one megabyte of computer information per installation. The final unit risk factors (URF) are transmitted electronically to BEMR-Cost task personnel as input to a computer program (ARAM). Abstracted files and exhibits of the URF information are included in this report. These visual formats are intended to provide a sample of the final task deliverable (the URF files) which can be easily read without a computer

Study of some physical aspects previous to design of an exponential experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caro, R.; Francisco, J. L. de

1961-01-01

This report presents the theoretical study of some physical aspects previous to the design of an exponential facility. The are: Fast and slow flux distribution in the multiplicative medium and in the thermal column, slowing down in the thermal column, geometrical distribution and minimum needed intensity of sources access channels and perturbations produced by possible variations in its position and intensity. (Author) 4 refs

Prevalence of pain in the head, back and feet in refugees previously exposed to torture: a ten-year follow-up study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Dorthe Reff; Montgomery, Edith; Bøjholm, Søren

2007-01-01

AIM: To estimate change over 10 years concerning the prevalence of pain in the head, back and feet, among previously tortured refugees settled in Denmark, and to compare associations between methods of torture and prevalent pain at baseline and at 10-year follow-up. METHODS: 139 refugees previous...... associated with the type and bodily focus of the torture. This presents a considerable challenge to future evidence-based development of effective treatment programs....

Brief Report: Prevalence of Co-Occurring Epilepsy and Autism Spectrum Disorder--The U.S. National Survey of Children's Health 2011-2012

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Shiny; Hovinga, Mary E.; Rai, Dheeraj; Lee, Brian K.

2017-01-01

Epilepsy is reported to co-occur in individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Previous studies across the world have found prevalence estimates ranging from 4 to 38%. We examined parent-reported prevalence of co-occurring epilepsy and ASD in the most recent U.S. National Survey of Children's Health, 2011-2012. All analyses accounted for…

Ibrutinib versus previous standard of care: an adjusted comparison in patients with relapsed/refractory chronic lymphocytic leukaemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Lotta; Asklid, Anna; Diels, Joris; Eketorp-Sylvan, Sandra; Repits, Johanna; Søltoft, Frans; Jäger, Ulrich; Österborg, Anders

2017-10-01

This study explored the relative efficacy of ibrutinib versus previous standard-of-care treatments in relapsed/refractory patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL), using multivariate regression modelling to adjust for baseline prognostic factors. Individual patient data were collected from an observational Stockholm cohort of consecutive patients (n = 144) diagnosed with CLL between 2002 and 2013 who had received at least second-line treatment. Data were compared with results of the RESONATE clinical trial. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was used which estimated the hazard ratio (HR) of ibrutinib versus previous standard of care. The adjusted HR of ibrutinib versus the previous standard-of-care cohort was 0.15 (p ibrutinib in the RESONATE study were significantly longer than with previous standard-of-care regimens used in second or later lines in routine healthcare. The approach used, which must be interpreted with caution, compares patient-level data from a clinical trial with outcomes observed in a daily clinical practice and may complement results from randomised trials or provide preliminary wider comparative information until phase 3 data exist.

Reassessment of liquefaction potential and estimation of earthquake- induced settlements at Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, Paducah, Kentucky. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sykora, D.W.; Yule, D.E.

1996-04-01

This report documents a reassessment of liquefaction potential and estimation of earthquake-induced settlements for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP), located southwest of Paducah, KY. The U.S. Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station (WES) was authorized to conduct this study from FY91 to FY94 by the DOE, Oak Ridge Operations (ORO), Oak Ridge, TN, through Inter- Agency Agreement (IAG) No. DE-AI05-91OR21971. The study was conducted under the Gaseous Diffusion Plant Safety Analysis Report (GDP SAR) Program

A Novel Methodology for Estimating State-Of-Charge of Li-Ion Batteries Using Advanced Parameters Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ibrahim M. Safwat

2017-11-01

Full Text Available State-of-charge (SOC estimations of Li-ion batteries have been the focus of many research studies in previous years. Many articles discussed the dynamic model’s parameters estimation of the Li-ion battery, where the fixed forgetting factor recursive least square estimation methodology is employed. However, the change rate of each parameter to reach the true value is not taken into consideration, which may tend to poor estimation. This article discusses this issue, and proposes two solutions to solve it. The first solution is the usage of a variable forgetting factor instead of a fixed one, while the second solution is defining a vector of forgetting factors, which means one factor for each parameter. After parameters estimation, a new idea is proposed to estimate state-of-charge (SOC of the Li-ion battery based on Newton’s method. Also, the error percentage and computational cost are discussed and compared with that of nonlinear Kalman filters. This methodology is applied on a 36 V 30 A Li-ion pack to validate this idea.

Long-term effects of previous oxandrolone treatment in adult women with Turner syndrome

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Freriks, K.; Sas, T.C.J.; Traas, M.A.F.; Netea-Maier, R.T.; Heijer, M. den; Hermus, A.R.M.M.; Wit, J.M.; Alfen-van der Velden, J. van; Otten, B.J.; Muinck Keizer-Schrama, S.M.P.F. de; Gotthardt, M.; Dejonckere, P.H.; Zandwijken, G.R.; Menke, L.A.; Timmers, H.J.L.M.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Short stature is a prominent feature of Turner syndrome (TS), which is partially overcome by GH treatment. We have previously reported the results of a trial on the effect of oxandrolone (Ox) in girls with TS. Ox in a dose of 0.03 mg/kg per day (Ox 0.03) significantly increased adult

www.common-metrics.org: a web application to estimate scores from different patient-reported outcome measures on a common scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, H Felix; Rose, Matthias

2016-10-19

Recently, a growing number of Item-Response Theory (IRT) models has been published, which allow estimation of a common latent variable from data derived by different Patient Reported Outcomes (PROs). When using data from different PROs, direct estimation of the latent variable has some advantages over the use of sum score conversion tables. It requires substantial proficiency in the field of psychometrics to fit such models using contemporary IRT software. We developed a web application ( http://www.common-metrics.org ), which allows estimation of latent variable scores more easily using IRT models calibrating different measures on instrument independent scales. Currently, the application allows estimation using six different IRT models for Depression, Anxiety, and Physical Function. Based on published item parameters, users of the application can directly estimate latent trait estimates using expected a posteriori (EAP) for sum scores as well as for specific response patterns, Bayes modal (MAP), Weighted likelihood estimation (WLE) and Maximum likelihood (ML) methods and under three different prior distributions. The obtained estimates can be downloaded and analyzed using standard statistical software. This application enhances the usability of IRT modeling for researchers by allowing comparison of the latent trait estimates over different PROs, such as the Patient Health Questionnaire Depression (PHQ-9) and Anxiety (GAD-7) scales, the Center of Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D), the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), PROMIS Anxiety and Depression Short Forms and others. Advantages of this approach include comparability of data derived with different measures and tolerance against missing values. The validity of the underlying models needs to be investigated in the future.

Spring Small Grains Area Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Palmer, W. F.; Mohler, R. J.

1986-01-01

SSG3 automatically estimates acreage of spring small grains from Landsat data. Report describes development and testing of a computerized technique for using Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data to estimate acreage of spring small grains (wheat, barley, and oats). Application of technique to analysis of four years of data from United States and Canada yielded estimates of accuracy comparable to those obtained through procedures that rely on trained analysis.

Estimating the Incidence of Acute Infectious Intestinal Disease in the Community in the UK: A Retrospective Telephone Survey.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Viviani

Full Text Available To estimate the burden of intestinal infectious disease (IID in the UK and determine whether disease burden estimations using a retrospective study design differ from those using a prospective study design.A retrospective telephone survey undertaken in each of the four countries comprising the United Kingdom. Participants were randomly asked about illness either in the past 7 or 28 days.14,813 individuals for all of whom we had a legible recording of their agreement to participate.Self-reported IID, defined as loose stools or clinically significant vomiting lasting less than two weeks, in the absence of a known non-infectious cause.The rate of self-reported IID varied substantially depending on whether asked for illness in the previous 7 or 28 days. After standardising for age and sex, and adjusting for the number of interviews completed each month and the relative size of each UK country, the estimated rate of IID in the 7-day recall group was 1,530 cases per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 1135-2113, while in the 28-day recall group it was 533 cases per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 377-778. There was no significant variation in rates between the four countries. Rates in this study were also higher than in a related prospective study undertaken at the same time.The estimated burden of disease from IID varied dramatically depending on study design. Retrospective studies of IID give higher estimates of disease burden than prospective studies. Of retrospective studies longer recall periods give lower estimated rates than studies with short recall periods. Caution needs to be exercised when comparing studies of self-reported IID as small changes in study design or case definition can markedly affect estimated rates.

Cerebral Metastasis from a Previously Undiagnosed Appendiceal Adenocarcinoma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Biroli

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Brain metastases arise in 10%–40% of all cancer patients. Up to one third of the patients do not have previous cancer history. We report a case of a 67-years-old male patient who presented with confusion, tremor, and apraxia. A brain MRI revealed an isolated right temporal lobe lesion. A thorax-abdomen-pelvis CT scan showed no primary lesion. The patient underwent a craniotomy with gross-total resection. Histopathology revealed an intestinal-type adenocarcinoma. A colonoscopy found no primary lesion, but a PET-CT scan showed elevated FDG uptake in the appendiceal nodule. A right hemicolectomy was performed, and the specimen showed a moderately differentiated mucinous appendiceal adenocarcinoma. Whole brain radiotherapy was administrated. A subsequent thorax-abdomen CT scan revealed multiple lung and hepatic metastasis. Seven months later, the patient died of disease progression. In cases of undiagnosed primary lesions, patients present in better general condition, but overall survival does not change. Eventual identification of the primary tumor does not affect survival. PET/CT might be a helpful tool in detecting lesions of the appendiceal region. To the best of our knowledge, such a case was never reported in the literature, and an appendiceal malignancy should be suspected in patients with brain metastasis from an undiagnosed primary tumor.

Early mortality estimates for different nuclear accidents. Final Phase I report, October 1977-April 1979

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hahn, F.F.

1979-08-01

Several studies have previously been made of the number of early deaths which might be expected in a population exposed to a cloud of radionuclides which could result from a nuclear accident. These analyses, however, have been limited to one accident scenario or to exposures involving limited numbers of radionuclides. The purpose of this Phase I study was to examine the existing data on the early health effects of inhaled radioactive materials and determined what, if any, new studies were needed to make reasonable estimates of early mortality after exposure of a population to a cloud of radionuclides of any type. The approach used in the Phase I project was to analyze the data bases available on the health effects of inhaled radioactive materials and document those which were adequate and useful. Using these data, a computer based simulation model was developed depicting exposure to a radioactive aerosol, the dose to an individual exposed to the aerosol and the probability of dying from early effects.

Early mortality estimates for different nuclear accidents. Final Phase I report, October 1977-April 1979

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hahn, F.F.

1979-08-01

Several studies have previously been made of the number of early deaths which might be expected in a population exposed to a cloud of radionuclides which could result from a nuclear accident. These analyses, however, have been limited to one accident scenario or to exposures involving limited numbers of radionuclides. The purpose of this Phase I study was to examine the existing data on the early health effects of inhaled radioactive materials and determined what, if any, new studies were needed to make reasonable estimates of early mortality after exposure of a population to a cloud of radionuclides of any type. The approach used in the Phase I project was to analyze the data bases available on the health effects of inhaled radioactive materials and document those which were adequate and useful. Using these data, a computer based simulation model was developed depicting exposure to a radioactive aerosol, the dose to an individual exposed to the aerosol and the probability of dying from early effects

Might ART Adherence Estimates Be Improved by Combining Biomarker and Self-Report Data?

Science.gov (United States)

Rhead, Rebecca; Masimirembwa, Collen; Cooke, Graham; Takaruza, Albert; Nyamukapa, Constance; Mutsimhi, Cosmas; Gregson, Simon

2016-01-01

As we endeavour to examine rates of viral suppression in PLHIV, reliable data on ART adherence are needed to distinguish between the respective contributions of poor adherence and treatment failure on high viral load. Self-reported data are susceptible to response bias and although biomarker data on drug presence and concentration can provide a superior, alternative method of measurement, complications due to drug-drug interactions and genetic variations can cause some inaccuracies. We investigate the feasibility of combining both biomarker and self-report data to produce a potentially more accurate measure of ART adherence. Data were taken from a large general-population survey in the Manicaland province, Zimbabwe, conducted in 2009-2011. HIV-infected adults who had initiated ART (N = 560) provided self-report data on adherence and dried blood spot samples that were analysed for traces of ART medication. A new three-category measure of ART adherence was constructed, based on biomarker data but using self-report data to adjust for cases with abnormally low and high drug concentrations due to possible drug-drug interactions and genetic factors, and was assessed for plausibility using survey data on socio-demographic correlates. 94.3% (528/560) and 92.7% (519/560) of the sample reported faithful adherence to their medication and had traces of ART medication, respectively. The combined measure estimated good evidence of ART adherence at 69% and excellent evidence of adherence at 53%. The regression analysis results showed plausible patterns of ART adherence by socio-demographic status with men and younger participants being more likely to adhere poorly to medication, and higher socio-economic status individuals and those living in more urban locations being more likely to adhere well. Biomarker and self-reported measures of adherence can be combined in a meaningful way to produce a potentially more accurate measure of ART adherence. Results indicate that ART adherence

Might ART Adherence Estimates Be Improved by Combining Biomarker and Self-Report Data?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rebecca Rhead

Full Text Available As we endeavour to examine rates of viral suppression in PLHIV, reliable data on ART adherence are needed to distinguish between the respective contributions of poor adherence and treatment failure on high viral load. Self-reported data are susceptible to response bias and although biomarker data on drug presence and concentration can provide a superior, alternative method of measurement, complications due to drug-drug interactions and genetic variations can cause some inaccuracies. We investigate the feasibility of combining both biomarker and self-report data to produce a potentially more accurate measure of ART adherence.Data were taken from a large general-population survey in the Manicaland province, Zimbabwe, conducted in 2009-2011. HIV-infected adults who had initiated ART (N = 560 provided self-report data on adherence and dried blood spot samples that were analysed for traces of ART medication. A new three-category measure of ART adherence was constructed, based on biomarker data but using self-report data to adjust for cases with abnormally low and high drug concentrations due to possible drug-drug interactions and genetic factors, and was assessed for plausibility using survey data on socio-demographic correlates.94.3% (528/560 and 92.7% (519/560 of the sample reported faithful adherence to their medication and had traces of ART medication, respectively. The combined measure estimated good evidence of ART adherence at 69% and excellent evidence of adherence at 53%. The regression analysis results showed plausible patterns of ART adherence by socio-demographic status with men and younger participants being more likely to adhere poorly to medication, and higher socio-economic status individuals and those living in more urban locations being more likely to adhere well.Biomarker and self-reported measures of adherence can be combined in a meaningful way to produce a potentially more accurate measure of ART adherence. Results indicate that

N-mix for fish: estimating riverine salmonid habitat selection via N-mixture models

Science.gov (United States)

Som, Nicholas A.; Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward C.; De Juilio, Kyle; Petros, Paul; Pinnix, William D.; Rupert, Derek L.

2018-01-01

Models that formulate mathematical linkages between fish use and habitat characteristics are applied for many purposes. For riverine fish, these linkages are often cast as resource selection functions with variables including depth and velocity of water and distance to nearest cover. Ecologists are now recognizing the role that detection plays in observing organisms, and failure to account for imperfect detection can lead to spurious inference. Herein, we present a flexible N-mixture model to associate habitat characteristics with the abundance of riverine salmonids that simultaneously estimates detection probability. Our formulation has the added benefits of accounting for demographics variation and can generate probabilistic statements regarding intensity of habitat use. In addition to the conceptual benefits, model application to data from the Trinity River, California, yields interesting results. Detection was estimated to vary among surveyors, but there was little spatial or temporal variation. Additionally, a weaker effect of water depth on resource selection is estimated than that reported by previous studies not accounting for detection probability. N-mixture models show great promise for applications to riverine resource selection.

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability

OpenAIRE

Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

2015-01-01

Background: Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. Method: We randomized 55 In...

Pushing the boundaries in liver graft utilisation in transplantation: Case report of a donor with previous bile duct injury repair.

Science.gov (United States)

Sultana, Asma; Powell, James J; Oniscu, Gabriel C

2017-01-01

Liver transplantation is a recognised treatment for extensive bile duct injuries with secondary biliary cirrhosis or recurring sepsis. However, there have been no reports of successful liver transplantation from a donor who sustained a previous bile duct injury. Here we discuss the case of a liver transplant from a 51-year-old brain dead donor who had suffered a Strasberg E1 bile duct injury and had undergone a Roux-en-Y hepaticojejunostomy 24 years prior to donation. The liver was successfully recovered and transplanted into a 56-year-old male recipient with end stage liver disease consequent to alpha 1 antitrypsin deficiency. The graft continues to function well 36 months post-transplant, with normal liver function tests and imaging revealing a patent hepaticojejunostomy. The potential associated vascular injuries should be identified during bench preparation whilst the management of biliary reconstruction at the time of transplant should follow the principles of biliary reconstruction in cases with biliary injuries, extending the hilar opening into the left duct. This case highlights the successful utilisation of a post bile duct injury repair liver, employing an experienced procurement team and careful bench assessment and reconstruction. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Guidelines for preparation of State water-use estimates for 2015

Science.gov (United States)

Bradley, Michael W.

2017-05-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has estimated the use of water in the United States at 5-year intervals since 1950. This report describes the water-use categories and data elements used for the national water-use compilation conducted as part of the USGS National Water-Use Science Project. The report identifies sources of water-use information, provides standard methods and techniques for estimating water use at the county level, and outlines steps for preparing documentation for the United States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.As part of this USGS program to document water use on a national scale, estimates of water withdrawals for the categories of public supply, self-supplied domestic, industrial, irrigation, and thermoelectric power are prepared for each county in each State, District, or territory by using the guidelines in this report. County estimates of water withdrawals for aquaculture, livestock, and mining are prepared for each State by using a county-based national model, although water-use programs in each State or Water Science Center have the option of producing independent county estimates of water withdrawals for these categories. Estimates of water withdrawals and consumptive use for thermoelectric power will be aggregated to the county level for each State by the national project; additionally, irrigation consumptive use at the county level will also be provided, although study chiefs in each State have the option of producing independent county estimates of water withdrawals and consumptive use for these categories.Estimates of deliveries of water from public supplies for domestic use by county also will be prepared for each State. As a result, total domestic water use can be determined for each State by combining self-supplied domestic withdrawals and public-supplied domestic deliveries. Fresh groundwater and surface-water estimates will be prepared for all categories of use, and saline groundwater and

Estimating Hedonic Price Indices for Ground Vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

2015-06-01

I N S T I T U T E F O R D E F E N S E A N A L Y S E S Estimating Hedonic Price Indices for Ground Vehicles (Presentation) David M. Tate Stanley...gathering and maintaining the data needed , and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any...currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE JUN 2015 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Estimating Hedonic Price

CONTROL BASED ON NUMERICAL METHODS AND RECURSIVE BAYESIAN ESTIMATION IN A CONTINUOUS ALCOHOLIC FERMENTATION PROCESS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olga L. Quintero

Full Text Available Biotechnological processes represent a challenge in the control field, due to their high nonlinearity. In particular, continuous alcoholic fermentation from Zymomonas mobilis (Z.m presents a significant challenge. This bioprocess has high ethanol performance, but it exhibits an oscillatory behavior in process variables due to the influence of inhibition dynamics (rate of ethanol concentration over biomass, substrate, and product concentrations. In this work a new solution for control of biotechnological variables in the fermentation process is proposed, based on numerical methods and linear algebra. In addition, an improvement to a previously reported state estimator, based on particle filtering techniques, is used in the control loop. The feasibility estimator and its performance are demonstrated in the proposed control loop. This methodology makes it possible to develop a controller design through the use of dynamic analysis with a tested biomass estimator in Z.m and without the use of complex calculations.

Costs of regulatory compliance: categories and estimating techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schulte, S.C.; McDonald, C.L.; Wood, M.T.; Cole, R.M.; Hauschulz, K.

1978-10-01

Use of the categorization scheme and cost estimating approaches presented in this report can make cost estimates of regulation required compliance activities of value to policy makers. The report describes a uniform assessment framework that when used would assure that cost studies are generated on an equivalent basis. Such normalization would make comparisons of different compliance activity cost estimates more meaningful, thus enabling the relative merits of different regulatory options to be more effectively judged. The framework establishes uniform cost reporting accounts and cost estimating approaches for use in assessing the costs of complying with regulatory actions. The framework was specifically developed for use in a current study at Pacific Northwest Laboratory. However, use of the procedures for other applications is also appropriate

Integrated Status and Effectiveness Monitoring Program Population Estimates for Juvenile Salmonids in Nason Creek, WA ; 2008 Annual Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Collins, Matthew; Murdoch, Keely [Yakama Nation Fisheries Resource Management

2009-07-20

This report summarizes juvenile coho, spring Chinook, and steelhead salmon migration data collected at a 1.5m diameter cone rotary fish trap on Nason Creek during 2008; providing abundance and freshwater productivity estimates. We used species enumeration at the trap and efficiency trials to describe emigration timing and to estimate the number of emigrants. Trapping began on March 2, 2008 and was suspended on December 11, 2008 when snow and ice accumulation prevented operation. During 2008, 0 brood year (BY) 2006 coho, 1 BY2007 coho, 906 BY2006 spring Chinook, 323 BY2007 fry Chinook, 2,077 BY2007 subyearling Chinook, 169 steelhead smolts, 414 steelhead fry and 2,390 steelhead parr were trapped. Mark-recapture trap efficiency trials were performed over a range of stream discharge stages. A total of 2,639 spring Chinook, 2,154 steelhead and 12 bull trout were implanted with Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tags. Most PIT tagged fish were used for trap efficiency trials. We were unable to identify a statistically significant relationship between stream discharge and trap efficiency, thus, pooled efficiency estimates specific to species and trap size/position were used to estimate the number of fish emigrating past the trap. We estimate that 5,259 ({+-} 359; 95% CI) BY2006 Chinook, 16,816 ({+-} 731; 95% CI) BY2007 Chinook, and 47,868 ({+-} 3,780; 95% CI) steelhead parr and smolts emigrated from Nason Creek in 2008.

[Lessons from abroad. Current and previous crisis in other countries. SESPAS report 2014].

Science.gov (United States)

Rivadeneyra-Sicilia, Ana; Minué Lorenzo, Sergio; Artundo Purroy, Carlos; Márquez Calderón, Soledad

2014-06-01

The evidence available on the impact of previous crises on health reveals different patterns attributable to study designs, the characteristics of each crisis, and other factors related to the socioeconomic and political context. There is greater consensus on the mediating role of government policy responses to financial crises. These responses may magnify or mitigate the adverse effects of crises on population health. Some studies have shown a significant deterioration in some health indicators in the context of the current crisis, mainly in relation to mental health and communicable diseases. Alcohol and tobacco use have also declined in some European countries. In addition, this crisis is being used by some governments to push reforms aimed at privatizing health services, thereby restricting the right to health and healthcare. Specifically, action is being taken on the three axes that determine health system financing: the population covered, the scope of services, and the share of the costs covered. These measures are often arbitrarily implemented based on ideological decisions rather than on the available evidence and therefore adverse consequences are to be expected in terms of financial protection, efficiency, and equity. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of the Estimated Core Temperature (ECTemp) Algorithm in Estimating Circadian Rhythm Indicators

Science.gov (United States)

2017-04-12

measurement of CT outside of stringent laboratory environments. This study evaluated ECTempTM, a heart rate- based extended Kalman Filter CT...were lower than heart-rate based models analyzed in previous studies. As such, ECTempTM demonstrates strong potential for estimating circadian CT...control of heat transfer from the core to the extremities [11]. As such, heart rate plays a pivotal role in thermoregulation as a primary

A new balance formula to estimate new particle formation rate: reevaluating the effect of coagulation scavenging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Cai

2017-10-01

Full Text Available A new balance formula to estimate new particle formation rate is proposed. It is derived from the aerosol general dynamic equation in the discrete form and then converted into an approximately continuous form for analyzing data from new particle formation (NPF field campaigns. The new formula corrects the underestimation of the coagulation scavenging effect that occurred in the previously used formulae. It also clarifies the criteria for determining the upper size bound in measured aerosol size distributions for estimating new particle formation rate. An NPF field campaign was carried out from 7 March to 7 April 2016 in urban Beijing, and a diethylene glycol scanning mobility particle spectrometer equipped with a miniature cylindrical differential mobility analyzer was used to measure aerosol size distributions down to ∼ 1 nm. Eleven typical NPF events were observed during this period. Measured aerosol size distributions from 1 nm to 10 µm were used to test the new formula and the formulae widely used in the literature. The previously used formulae that perform well in a relatively clean atmosphere in which nucleation intensity is not strong were found to underestimate the comparatively high new particle formation rate in urban Beijing because of their underestimation or neglect of the coagulation scavenging effect. The coagulation sink term is the governing component of the estimated formation rate in the observed NPF events in Beijing, and coagulation among newly formed particles contributes a large fraction to the coagulation sink term. Previously reported formation rates in Beijing and in other locations with intense NPF events might be underestimated because the coagulation scavenging effect was not fully considered; e.g., estimated formation rates of 1.5 nm particles in this campaign using the new formula are 1.3–4.3 times those estimated using the formula neglecting coagulation among particles in the nucleation mode.

Histogram equalization with Bayesian estimation for noise robust speech recognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Suh, Youngjoo; Kim, Hoirin

2018-02-01

The histogram equalization approach is an efficient feature normalization technique for noise robust automatic speech recognition. However, it suffers from performance degradation when some fundamental conditions are not satisfied in the test environment. To remedy these limitations of the original histogram equalization methods, class-based histogram equalization approach has been proposed. Although this approach showed substantial performance improvement under noise environments, it still suffers from performance degradation due to the overfitting problem when test data are insufficient. To address this issue, the proposed histogram equalization technique employs the Bayesian estimation method in the test cumulative distribution function estimation. It was reported in a previous study conducted on the Aurora-4 task that the proposed approach provided substantial performance gains in speech recognition systems based on the acoustic modeling of the Gaussian mixture model-hidden Markov model. In this work, the proposed approach was examined in speech recognition systems with deep neural network-hidden Markov model (DNN-HMM), the current mainstream speech recognition approach where it also showed meaningful performance improvement over the conventional maximum likelihood estimation-based method. The fusion of the proposed features with the mel-frequency cepstral coefficients provided additional performance gains in DNN-HMM systems, which otherwise suffer from performance degradation in the clean test condition.

Addendum report of the JHPS expert committee on radiation protection of the lens of the eye (1). Eye lens dosimetry R and D, and radiation management and estimated eye-lens exposure for workers in Japanese nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akahane, Keiichi; Tatsuzaki, Hideo; Iimoto, Takeshi; Ichiji, Takeshi; Hamada, Nobuyuki; Iwai, Satoshi; Ohguchi, Hiroyuki; Ohno, Kazuko; Katoh, Masahiro; Kurosawa, Tadahiro; Kawaura, Chiyo; Tsujimura, Norio; Hayashida, Toshiyuki; Hotta, Yutaka; Yamasaki, Tadashi; Yokoyama, Sumi

2015-01-01

The Expert Committee on Radiation Protection of the Lens of the Eye was established under the Japan Health Physics Society in April, 2013 (completed, March, 2015). The Committee looked at new/revised documents and standards related to the eye lens published by international organizations such as the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU). The Committee also examined recent and previous studies related to eye-lens radiation exposure and dosimetry in Japan. These findings were published in this journal as the Interim Report of the Committee. Since then, the Committee expanded its activity to give an overview the current progress of eye-lens dosimetry R and D at the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, along with research related to radiation management and estimated eye-lens exposure of Japanese nuclear-power-plant workers (including those at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant) for publishing an addendum Committee report. These additional findings are reported here. (author)

Motion estimation using point cluster method and Kalman filter.

Science.gov (United States)

Senesh, M; Wolf, A

2009-05-01

The most frequently used method in a three dimensional human gait analysis involves placing markers on the skin of the analyzed segment. This introduces a significant artifact, which strongly influences the bone position and orientation and joint kinematic estimates. In this study, we tested and evaluated the effect of adding a Kalman filter procedure to the previously reported point cluster technique (PCT) in the estimation of a rigid body motion. We demonstrated the procedures by motion analysis of a compound planar pendulum from indirect opto-electronic measurements of markers attached to an elastic appendage that is restrained to slide along the rigid body long axis. The elastic frequency is close to the pendulum frequency, as in the biomechanical problem, where the soft tissue frequency content is similar to the actual movement of the bones. Comparison of the real pendulum angle to that obtained by several estimation procedures--PCT, Kalman filter followed by PCT, and low pass filter followed by PCT--enables evaluation of the accuracy of the procedures. When comparing the maximal amplitude, no effect was noted by adding the Kalman filter; however, a closer look at the signal revealed that the estimated angle based only on the PCT method was very noisy with fluctuation, while the estimated angle based on the Kalman filter followed by the PCT was a smooth signal. It was also noted that the instantaneous frequencies obtained from the estimated angle based on the PCT method is more dispersed than those obtained from the estimated angle based on Kalman filter followed by the PCT method. Addition of a Kalman filter to the PCT method in the estimation procedure of rigid body motion results in a smoother signal that better represents the real motion, with less signal distortion than when using a digital low pass filter. Furthermore, it can be concluded that adding a Kalman filter to the PCT procedure substantially reduces the dispersion of the maximal and minimal

Estimation of Foot Plantar Center of Pressure Trajectories with Low-Cost Instrumented Insoles Using an Individual-Specific Nonlinear Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinyao Hu

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Postural control is a complex skill based on the interaction of dynamic sensorimotor processes, and can be challenging for people with deficits in sensory functions. The foot plantar center of pressure (COP has often been used for quantitative assessment of postural control. Previously, the foot plantar COP was mainly measured by force plates or complicated and expensive insole-based measurement systems. Although some low-cost instrumented insoles have been developed, their ability to accurately estimate the foot plantar COP trajectory was not robust. In this study, a novel individual-specific nonlinear model was proposed to estimate the foot plantar COP trajectories with an instrumented insole based on low-cost force sensitive resistors (FSRs. The model coefficients were determined by a least square error approximation algorithm. Model validation was carried out by comparing the estimated COP data with the reference data in a variety of postural control assessment tasks. We also compared our data with the COP trajectories estimated by the previously well accepted weighted mean approach. Comparing with the reference measurements, the average root mean square errors of the COP trajectories of both feet were 2.23 mm (±0.64 (left foot and 2.72 mm (±0.83 (right foot along the medial–lateral direction, and 9.17 mm (±1.98 (left foot and 11.19 mm (±2.98 (right foot along the anterior–posterior direction. The results are superior to those reported in previous relevant studies, and demonstrate that our proposed approach can be used for accurate foot plantar COP trajectory estimation. This study could provide an inexpensive solution to fall risk assessment in home settings or community healthcare center for the elderly. It has the potential to help prevent future falls in the elderly.

Estimation of Foot Plantar Center of Pressure Trajectories with Low-Cost Instrumented Insoles Using an Individual-Specific Nonlinear Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Xinyao; Zhao, Jun; Peng, Dongsheng; Sun, Zhenglong; Qu, Xingda

2018-02-01

Postural control is a complex skill based on the interaction of dynamic sensorimotor processes, and can be challenging for people with deficits in sensory functions. The foot plantar center of pressure (COP) has often been used for quantitative assessment of postural control. Previously, the foot plantar COP was mainly measured by force plates or complicated and expensive insole-based measurement systems. Although some low-cost instrumented insoles have been developed, their ability to accurately estimate the foot plantar COP trajectory was not robust. In this study, a novel individual-specific nonlinear model was proposed to estimate the foot plantar COP trajectories with an instrumented insole based on low-cost force sensitive resistors (FSRs). The model coefficients were determined by a least square error approximation algorithm. Model validation was carried out by comparing the estimated COP data with the reference data in a variety of postural control assessment tasks. We also compared our data with the COP trajectories estimated by the previously well accepted weighted mean approach. Comparing with the reference measurements, the average root mean square errors of the COP trajectories of both feet were 2.23 mm (±0.64) (left foot) and 2.72 mm (±0.83) (right foot) along the medial-lateral direction, and 9.17 mm (±1.98) (left foot) and 11.19 mm (±2.98) (right foot) along the anterior-posterior direction. The results are superior to those reported in previous relevant studies, and demonstrate that our proposed approach can be used for accurate foot plantar COP trajectory estimation. This study could provide an inexpensive solution to fall risk assessment in home settings or community healthcare center for the elderly. It has the potential to help prevent future falls in the elderly.

Electrical substation service-area estimation using Cellular Automata: An initial report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fenwick, J.W.; Dowell, L.J.

1998-07-01

The service areas for electric power substations can be estimated using a Cellular Automata (CA) model. The CA model is a discrete, iterative process whereby substations acquire service area by claiming neighboring cells. The service area expands from a substation until a neighboring substation service area is met or the substation`s total capacity or other constraints are reached. The CA-model output is dependent on the rule set that defines cell interactions. The rule set is based on a hierarchy of quantitative metrics that represent real-world factors such as land use and population density. Together, the metrics determine the rate of cell acquisition and the upper bound for service area size. Assessing the CA-model accuracy requires comparisons to actual service areas. These actual service areas can be extracted from distribution maps. Quantitative assessment of the CA-model accuracy can be accomplished by a number of methods. Some are as simple as finding the percentage of cells predicted correctly, while others assess a penalty based on the distance from an incorrectly predicted cell to its correct service area. This is an initial report of a work in progress.

The Role of Organisational Phenomena in Software Cost Estimation: A Case Study of Supporting and Hindering Factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jurka Rahikkala

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Despite the fact that many researchers and practitioners agree that organisational issues are equally important as technical issues from the software cost estimation (SCE success point of view, most of the research focus has been put on the development of methods, whereas organisational factors have received surprisingly little academic scrutiny. This study aims to identify organisational factors that either support or hinder meaningful SCE, identifying their impact on estimation success. Top management’s role is specifically addressed. The study takes a qualitative and explorative case study based approach. In total, 18 semi-structured interviews aided the study of three projects in three organisations. Hence, the transferability of the results is limited. The results suggest that the role of the top management is important in creating prerequisites for meaningful estimation, but their day-to-day participation is not required for successful estimation. Top management may also induce undesired distortion in estimation. Estimation maturity and estimation success seem to have an interrelationship with software process maturity, but there seem to be no significant individual organisational factors, which alone would make estimation successful. Our results validate several distortions and biases reported in the previous studies, and show the SCE research focus has remained on methodologies and technical issues.

The influence of previous low back trouble, general health, and working conditions on future sick-listing because of low back trouble. A 15-year follow-up study of risk indicators for self-reported sick-listing caused by low back trouble.

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, C F; Monrad, T; Biering-Sørensen, F; Darre, E; Deis, A; Kryger, P

1999-08-01

A 15-year follow-up study. To find risk indicators for self-reported sick-listing because of low back trouble and to evaluate which variables were the most important indicators of work incapacity resulting from low back trouble during the follow-up period of 15 years. The initial data were obtained from a health survey conducted in a general population from the Municipality of Glostrup, Denmark. The follow-up data included information from the Central Person Register, the Early Retirement Pension Register, and a postal questionnaire regarding self-reported sick-listing because of low back trouble. An epidemiologic study, in which logistic regression analyses were used for evaluation of the data. The model used consisted of the variable in question, age, gender, and previous experience of low back trouble, along with interactions. It was found that 22 of 37 variables were risk indicators for later self-reported sick-listing because of low back trouble during the preceding year or the 7 years before the date of follow-up evaluation. In analyzing the most significant variables simultaneously, it was found that information from the initial investigation about sick-listing in general during the previous 10 years, sciatic pain, use of analgesics for low back trouble, previous sick-listing because of low back trouble, and occupation were the most important risk indicators for self-reported work incapacity resulting from low back trouble during the follow-up period of 15 years. Findings showed that the strongest prognostic indicators of later sick-listing because of low back trouble involve information from the person about previous sick-listing behavior in general and previous experience of low back trouble episodes, especially if these had been accompanied by sciatic pain, use of analgesics, or previous low back trouble sick-listing.

Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valero, O.J.

1997-01-01

This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data that was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview

Key issues for estimating the impact and cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Jit, Mark; Newall, Anthony T; Beutels, Philippe

2013-04-01

Many countries have considered or are considering modifying their seasonal influenza immunization policies. Estimating the impact of such changes requires understanding the existing clinical and economic burden of influenza, as well as the potential impact of different vaccination options. Previous studies suggest that vaccinating clinical risk groups, health care workers, children and the elderly may be cost-effective. However, challenges in such estimation include: (1) potential cases are not usually virologically tested; (2) cases have non-specific symptoms and are rarely reported to surveillance systems; (3) endpoints for influenza proxies (such as influenza-like illness) need to be matched to case definitions for treatment costs, (4) disease burden estimates vary from year to year with strain transmissibility, virulence and prior immunity, (5) methods to estimate productivity losses due to influenza vary, (6) vaccine efficacy estimates from trials differ due to variation in subtype prevalence, vaccine match and case ascertainment, and (7) indirect (herd) protection from vaccination depends on setting-specific variables that are difficult to directly measure. Given the importance of knowing the impact of changes to influenza policy, such complexities need careful treatment using tools such as population-based trial designs, meta-analyses, time-series analyses and transmission dynamic models.

Estimation of baseline lifetime risk of developed cancer related to radiation exposure in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Xiaoliang; Niu Haowei; Sun Quanfu; Ma Weidong

2011-01-01

Objective: To introduce the general international method for estimation of lifetime risk of developed cancer, and to estimate the lifetime risk baseline values of several kinds of cancers related to radiation exposures in China. Methods: The risk estimation was based on the data from Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report (2010) and China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook (2009), and made according to the method previously published by National Cancer Institute (NCI) in USA. Results: The lifetime risk of all cancer in China in 2007 was estimated to be 27.77%, that of lung cancer 5.96%, that of breast cancer for female 3.34%, that of all leukemia 0.14%, that of thyroid cancer 0.37%. The lifetime risks of all cancer were estimated to be 32.74% for males and 24.73% for females, and that was 36.47% for urban residents and 26.79% for rural people. Conclusions: The lifetime risk of all cancer for males in 2007 was about 1.25 times as much as that for females. The value of all cancer for urban residents was about 1.35 times as much as that for rural residents. The lifetime risk of developed cancers in 2007 in China is lower than that in the developed countries,such as Japan. (authors)

Soil Characterization at the Linde FUSRAP Site and the Impact on Soil Volume Estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boyle, J.; Kenna, T.; Pilon, R.

2002-01-01

The former Linde site in Tonawanda, New York is currently undergoing active remediation of Manhattan Engineering District's radiological contamination. This remediation is authorized under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). The focus of this paper will be to describe the impact of soil characterization efforts as they relate to soil volume estimates and project cost estimates. An additional objective is to stimulate discussion about other characterization and modeling technologies, and to provide a ''Lessons Learned'' scenario to assist in future volume estimating at other FUSRAP sites. Initial soil characterization efforts at the Linde FUSRAP site in areas known to be contaminated or suspected to be contaminated were presented in the Remedial Investigation Report for the Tonawanda Site, dated February 1993. Results of those initial characterization efforts were the basis for soil volume estimates that were used to estimate and negotiate the current remediation contract. During the course of remediation, previously unidentified areas of contamination were discovered, and additional characterization was initiated. Additional test pit and geoprobe samples were obtained at over 500 locations, bringing the total to over 800 sample locations at the 135-acre site. New data continues to be collected on a routine basis during ongoing remedial actions

Estimation of the burden of chronic and allergic pulmonary aspergillosis in India.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ritesh Agarwal

Full Text Available It would be of considerable interest to clinicians if the burden of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA and allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA in India were known. Herein, we estimate the burden of CPA following pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB, and ABPA (and severe asthma with fungal sensitization [SAFS] complicating asthma.We used the population estimates for India from the 2011 census data. The burden of asthma was estimated using three different methods (Global Initiative against Asthma [GINA] report statement, World Health Survey [WHS] estimates, Indian study on the epidemiology of asthma and chronic bronchitis [INSEARCH]. Global and India-specific figures were used for calculating the prevalence of ABPA and SAFS. The World Health Organization estimates were used for calculating PTB rates while the frequency of CPA was assessed from a previously published scoping review. Sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the burden in various scenarios.The total Indian population in 2011 was 1.2 billion. The asthma prevalence in adults was estimated at about 27.6 (range, 17-30 million. The burden of ABPA ranged from 0.12-6.09 million with different assumptions (best estimate, 1.38 [range, 0.86-1.52] million. The prevalence of SAFS was approximated at about 0.52-1.21 million (best estimate, 0.96 [range, 0.6-1.06] million. The incident TB cases were about 2.1 million while the annual incidence of CPA varied 27,000-0.17 million cases, with different estimates. If the mortality of CPA is estimated as 15% annually, the 5-year prevalence of CPA was placed at 290,147 cases with 5-year prevalence rate being 24 per 100,000.There is a significant burden of ABPA, SAFS and CPA in India. Prospective community-based studies are required to accurately determine the prevalence of these disorders.

Distributed Dynamic State Estimation with Extended Kalman Filter

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Du, Pengwei; Huang, Zhenyu; Sun, Yannan; Diao, Ruisheng; Kalsi, Karanjit; Anderson, Kevin K.; Li, Yulan; Lee, Barry

2011-08-04

Increasing complexity associated with large-scale renewable resources and novel smart-grid technologies necessitates real-time monitoring and control. Our previous work applied the extended Kalman filter (EKF) with the use of phasor measurement data (PMU) for dynamic state estimation. However, high computation complexity creates significant challenges for real-time applications. In this paper, the problem of distributed dynamic state estimation is investigated. One domain decomposition method is proposed to utilize decentralized computing resources. The performance of distributed dynamic state estimation is tested on a 16-machine, 68-bus test system.

Estimation of morbidity effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ostro, B.

1994-01-01

Many researchers have related exposure to ambient air pollution to respiratory morbidity. To be included in this review and analysis, however, several criteria had to be met. First, a careful study design and a methodology that generated quantitative dose-response estimates were required. Therefore, there was a focus on time-series regression analyses relating daily incidence of morbidity to air pollution in a single city or metropolitan area. Studies that used weekly or monthly average concentrations or that involved particulate measurements in poorly characterized metropolitan areas (e.g., one monitor representing a large region) were not included in this review. Second, studies that minimized confounding ad omitted variables were included. For example, research that compared two cities or regions and characterized them as 'high' and 'low' pollution area were not included because of potential confounding by other factors in the respective areas. Third, concern for the effects of seasonality and weather had to be demonstrated. This could be accomplished by either stratifying and analyzing the data by season, by examining the independent effects of temperature and humidity, and/or by correcting the model for possible autocorrelation. A fourth criterion for study inclusion was that the study had to include a reasonably complete analysis of the data. Such analysis would include an careful exploration of the primary hypothesis as well as possible examination of te robustness and sensitivity of the results to alternative functional forms, specifications, and influential data points. When studies reported the results of these alternative analyses, the quantitative estimates that were judged as most representative of the overall findings were those that were summarized in this paper. Finally, for inclusion in the review of particulate matter, the study had to provide a measure of particle concentration that could be converted into PM10, particulate matter below 10

Estimation of geographic variation in human papillomavirus vaccine uptake in men and women: an online survey using facebook recruitment.

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Erik J; Hughes, John; Oakes, J Michael; Pankow, James S; Kulasingam, Shalini L

2014-09-01

Federally funded surveys of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake are important for pinpointing geographically based health disparities. Although national and state level data are available, local (ie, county and postal code level) data are not due to small sample sizes, confidentiality concerns, and cost. Local level HPV vaccine uptake data may be feasible to obtain by targeting specific geographic areas through social media advertising and recruitment strategies, in combination with online surveys. Our goal was to use Facebook-based recruitment and online surveys to estimate local variation in HPV vaccine uptake among young men and women in Minnesota. From November 2012 to January 2013, men and women were recruited via a targeted Facebook advertisement campaign to complete an online survey about HPV vaccination practices. The Facebook advertisements were targeted to recruit men and women by location (25 mile radius of Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States), age (18-30 years), and language (English). Of the 2079 men and women who responded to the Facebook advertisements and visited the study website, 1003 (48.2%) enrolled in the study and completed the survey. The average advertising cost per completed survey was US $1.36. Among those who reported their postal code, 90.6% (881/972) of the participants lived within the previously defined geographic study area. Receipt of 1 dose or more of HPV vaccine was reported by 65.6% women (351/535), and 13.0% (45/347) of men. These results differ from previously reported Minnesota state level estimates (53.8% for young women and 20.8% for young men) and from national estimates (34.5% for women and 2.3% for men). This study shows that recruiting a representative sample of young men and women based on county and postal code location to complete a survey on HPV vaccination uptake via the Internet is a cost-effective and feasible strategy. This study also highlights the need for local estimates to assess the variation in HPV

Estimation of Geographic Variation in Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Uptake in Men and Women: An Online Survey Using Facebook Recruitment

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, John; Oakes, J Michael; Pankow, James S; Kulasingam, Shalini L

2014-01-01

Background Federally funded surveys of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake are important for pinpointing geographically based health disparities. Although national and state level data are available, local (ie, county and postal code level) data are not due to small sample sizes, confidentiality concerns, and cost. Local level HPV vaccine uptake data may be feasible to obtain by targeting specific geographic areas through social media advertising and recruitment strategies, in combination with online surveys. Objective Our goal was to use Facebook-based recruitment and online surveys to estimate local variation in HPV vaccine uptake among young men and women in Minnesota. Methods From November 2012 to January 2013, men and women were recruited via a targeted Facebook advertisement campaign to complete an online survey about HPV vaccination practices. The Facebook advertisements were targeted to recruit men and women by location (25 mile radius of Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States), age (18-30 years), and language (English). Results Of the 2079 men and women who responded to the Facebook advertisements and visited the study website, 1003 (48.2%) enrolled in the study and completed the survey. The average advertising cost per completed survey was US $1.36. Among those who reported their postal code, 90.6% (881/972) of the participants lived within the previously defined geographic study area. Receipt of 1 dose or more of HPV vaccine was reported by 65.6% women (351/535), and 13.0% (45/347) of men. These results differ from previously reported Minnesota state level estimates (53.8% for young women and 20.8% for young men) and from national estimates (34.5% for women and 2.3% for men). Conclusions This study shows that recruiting a representative sample of young men and women based on county and postal code location to complete a survey on HPV vaccination uptake via the Internet is a cost-effective and feasible strategy. This study also highlights the need

Component external leakage and rupture frequency estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Calley, M.B.; Johnson, D.A.; Marteeny, M.L.

1991-11-01

In order to perform detailed internal flooding risk analyses of nuclear power plants, external leakage and rupture frequencies are needed for various types of components - piping, valves, pumps, flanges, and others. However, there appears to be no up-to-date, comprehensive source for such frequency estimates. This report attempts to fill that void. Based on a comprehensive search of Licensee Event Reports (LERs) contained in Nuclear Power Experience (NPE), and estimates of component populations and exposure times, component external leakage and rupture frequencies were generated. The remainder of this report covers the specifies of the NPE search for external leakage and rupture events, analysis of the data, a comparison with frequency estimates from other sources, and a discussion of the results

Cost estimating relationships for nuclear power plant operationa and maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bowers, H.I.; Fuller, L.C.; Myers, M.L.

1987-11-01

Revised cost estimating relationships for 1987 are presented for estimating annual nonfuel operation and maintenance (O and M) costs for light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants, which update guidelines published previously in 1982. The purpose of these cost estimating relationships is for use in long range planning and evaluations of the economics of nuclear energy for electric power generation. A listing of a computer program, LWROM, implementing the cost estimating relationships and written in advanced BASIC for IBM personal computers, is included

A reduced estimate of the number of kilometre-sized near-Earth asteroids.

Science.gov (United States)

Rabinowitz, D; Helin, E; Lawrence, K; Pravdo, S

2000-01-13

Near-Earth asteroids are small (diameters Earth (they come within 1.3 AU of the Sun). Most have a chance of approximately 0.5% of colliding with the Earth in the next million years. The total number of such bodies with diameters > 1 km has been estimated to be in the range 1,000-2,000, which translates to an approximately 1% chance of a catastrophic collision with the Earth in the next millennium. These numbers are, however, poorly constrained because of the limitations of previous searches using photographic plates. (One kilometre is below the size of a body whose impact on the Earth would produce global effects.) Here we report an analysis of our survey for near-Earth asteroids that uses improved detection technologies. We find that the total number of asteroids with diameters > 1 km is about half the earlier estimates. At the current rate of discovery of near-Earth asteroids, 90% will probably have been detected within the next 20 years.

Estimation and Projection of Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran, 2015-2020.

Science.gov (United States)

Vardanjani, Hossein Molavi; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; Bagheri-Lankarani, Kamran; Hadipour, Maryam

2018-01-01

Population aging and more prevalent westernized lifestyle would be expected to result in a markedly rising burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the future years. The aim of this study is to estimate the limited-time prevalence of CRC in Iran between 2015 and 2020. Aggregated CRC incidence data were extracted from the Iranian national cancer registry (IR.NCR) reports for 2003-2009 and from GLOBOCAN-2012 database for 2012. Incidence trends were analyzed by age groups, genders, histopathologic, and topographic subtypes to estimate annual percentage changes. Incidence was projected for 2020. The prevalence was estimated applying an adopted version of a previously introduced equation to estimate limited-time prevalence based on the incidence and survival data. Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were applied to estimate 95% uncertainty levels (ULs). In each scenario, incidence, survival, annual percentage changes, and completeness of case ascertainment at IR.NCR were replaced under pre-assumed distributions. Number of estimated within 1, 2-3 and 4-5-year CRC patients in 2015 were 13676 (95% UL: 10051-18807), 20964 (15835-28268), and 14485 (11188-19293), respectively. Estimated 5-year prevalence for 2020 (99463; 75150-134744) was 2.03 times of that for 2015. Highest 5-year prevalence was estimated in ages 55-59 for females and 75 + for males. Adenocarcinoma (41376; 31227 55898) was the most prevalent histologic subtype. The most prevalent tumor location was colon (30822, 23262-41638). A substantial growth in the prevalence of CRC survivors is highly expected for future years in Iran. Establishment of specialized institutes is highly recommended to provide medical and especially social supports for Iranian CRC survivors.

Two-Dimensional Echocardiography Estimates of Fetal Ventricular Mass throughout Gestation.

Science.gov (United States)

Aye, Christina Y L; Lewandowski, Adam James; Ohuma, Eric O; Upton, Ross; Packham, Alice; Kenworthy, Yvonne; Roseman, Fenella; Norris, Tess; Molloholli, Malid; Wanyonyi, Sikolia; Papageorghiou, Aris T; Leeson, Paul

2017-08-12

Two-dimensional (2D) ultrasound quality has improved in recent years. Quantification of cardiac dimensions is important to screen and monitor certain fetal conditions. We assessed the feasibility and reproducibility of fetal ventricular measures using 2D echocardiography, reported normal ranges in our cohort, and compared estimates to other modalities. Mass and end-diastolic volume were estimated by manual contouring in the four-chamber view using TomTec Image Arena 4.6 in end diastole. Nomograms were created from smoothed centiles of measures, constructed using fractional polynomials after log transformation. The results were compared to those of previous studies using other modalities. A total of 294 scans from 146 fetuses from 15+0 to 41+6 weeks of gestation were included. Seven percent of scans were unanalysable and intraobserver variability was good (intraclass correlation coefficients for left and right ventricular mass 0.97 [0.87-0.99] and 0.99 [0.95-1.0], respectively). Mass and volume increased exponentially, showing good agreement with 3D mass estimates up to 28 weeks of gestation, after which our measurements were in better agreement with neonatal cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. There was good agreement with 4D volume estimates for the left ventricle. Current state-of-the-art 2D echocardiography platforms provide accurate, feasible, and reproducible fetal ventricular measures across gestation, and in certain circumstances may be the modality of choice. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Site characterization: a spatial estimation approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Candy, J.V.; Mao, N.

1980-10-01

In this report the application of spatial estimation techniques or kriging to groundwater aquifers and geological borehole data is considered. The adequacy of these techniques to reliably develop contour maps from various data sets is investigated. The estimator is developed theoretically in a simplified fashion using vector-matrix calculus. The practice of spatial estimation is discussed and the estimator is then applied to two groundwater aquifer systems and used also to investigate geological formations from borehole data. It is shown that the estimator can provide reasonable results when designed properly

Compressive Parameter Estimation for Sparse Translation-Invariant Signals Using Polar Interpolation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fyhn, Karsten; Duarte, Marco F.; Jensen, Søren Holdt

2015-01-01

We propose new compressive parameter estimation algorithms that make use of polar interpolation to improve the estimator precision. Our work extends previous approaches involving polar interpolation for compressive parameter estimation in two aspects: (i) we extend the formulation from real non...... to attain good estimation precision and keep the computational complexity low. Our numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithms outperform existing approaches that either leverage polynomial interpolation or are based on a conversion to a frequency-estimation problem followed by a super...... interpolation increases the estimation precision....

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry: analysis of pediatric fat estimate errors due to tissue hydration effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Testolin, C G; Gore, R; Rivkin, T; Horlick, M; Arbo, J; Wang, Z; Chiumello, G; Heymsfield, S B

2000-12-01

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) percent (%) fat estimates may be inaccurate in young children, who typically have high tissue hydration levels. This study was designed to provide a comprehensive analysis of pediatric tissue hydration effects on DXA %fat estimates. Phase 1 was experimental and included three in vitro studies to establish the physical basis of DXA %fat-estimation models. Phase 2 extended phase 1 models and consisted of theoretical calculations to estimate the %fat errors emanating from previously reported pediatric hydration effects. Phase 1 experiments supported the two-compartment DXA soft tissue model and established that pixel ratio of low to high energy (R values) are a predictable function of tissue elemental content. In phase 2, modeling of reference body composition values from birth to age 120 mo revealed that %fat errors will arise if a "constant" adult lean soft tissue R value is applied to the pediatric population; the maximum %fat error, approximately 0.8%, would be present at birth. High tissue hydration, as observed in infants and young children, leads to errors in DXA %fat estimates. The magnitude of these errors based on theoretical calculations is small and may not be of clinical or research significance.

Are previous episodes of bacterial vaginosis a predictor for vaginal symptoms in breast cancer patients treated with aromatase inhibitors?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gade, Malene R; Goukasian, Irina; Panduro, Nathalie

2018-01-01

Objective To estimate the prevalence of vaginal symptoms in postmenopausal women with breast cancer exposed to aromatase inhibitors, and to investigate if the risk of vaginal symptoms is associated with previous episodes of bacterial vaginosis. Methods Patients from Rigshospitalet and Herlev...... University Hospital, Denmark, were identified through the register of Danish Breast Cancer Cooperation Group and 78 patients participated in the study. Semiquantitave questionnaires and telephone interview were used to assess the prevalence of vaginal symptoms and previous episode(s) of bacterial vaginosis....... Multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess the association between vaginal symptoms and previous episodes of bacterial vaginosis. Results Moderate to severe symptoms due to vaginal itching/irritation were experienced by 6.4% (95% CI: 2.8-14.1%), vaginal dryness by 28.4% (95% CI: 19...

New, national bottom-up estimate for tree-based biological ...

Science.gov (United States)

Nitrogen is a limiting nutrient in many ecosystems, but is also a chief pollutant from human activity. Quantifying human impacts on the nitrogen cycle and investigating natural ecosystem nitrogen cycling both require an understanding of the magnitude of nitrogen inputs from biological nitrogen fixation (BNF). A bottom-up approach to estimating BNF—scaling rates up from measurements to broader scales—is attractive because it is rooted in actual BNF measurements. However, bottom-up approaches have been hindered by scaling difficulties, and a recent top-down approach suggested that the previous bottom-up estimate was much too large. Here, we used a bottom-up approach for tree-based BNF, overcoming scaling difficulties with the systematic, immense (>70,000 N-fixing trees) Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database. We employed two approaches to estimate species-specific BNF rates: published ecosystem-scale rates (kg N ha-1 yr-1) and published estimates of the percent of N derived from the atmosphere (%Ndfa) combined with FIA-derived growth rates. Species-specific rates can vary for a variety of reasons, so for each approach we examined how different assumptions influenced our results. Specifically, we allowed BNF rates to vary with stand age, N-fixer density, and canopy position (since N-fixation is known to require substantial light).Our estimates from this bottom-up technique are several orders of magnitude lower than previous estimates indicating

Find-rate methodology and resource base estimates of the Hydrocarbon Supply Model (1990 update). Topical report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woods, T.

1991-02-01

The Hydrocarbon Supply Model is used to develop long-term trends in Lower-48 gas production and costs. The model utilizes historical find-rate patterns to predict the discovery rate and size distribution of future oil and gas field discoveries. The report documents the methodologies used to quantify historical oil and gas field find-rates and to project those discovery patterns for future drilling. It also explains the theoretical foundations for the find-rate approach. The new field and reserve growth resource base is documented and compared to other published estimates. The report has six sections. Section 1 provides background information and an overview of the model. Sections 2, 3, and 4 describe the theoretical foundations of the model, the databases, and specific techniques used. Section 5 presents the new field resource base by region and depth. Section 6 documents the reserve growth model components

Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

2000-02-14

The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

Gastrointestinal tolerability with ibandronate after previous weekly bisphosphonate treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Derman, Richard; Kohles, Joseph D; Babbitt, Ann

2009-01-01

Data from two open-label trials (PRIOR and CURRENT) of women with postmenopausal osteoporosis or osteopenia were evaluated to assess whether monthly oral and quarterly intravenous (IV) ibandronate dosing improved self-reported gastrointestinal (GI) tolerability for patients who had previously experienced GI irritation with bisphosphonate (BP) use. In PRIOR, women who had discontinued daily or weekly BP treatment due to GI intolerance received monthly oral or quarterly IV ibandronate for 12 months. The CURRENT subanalysis included women receiving weekly BP treatment who switched to monthly oral ibandronate for six months. GI symptom severity and frequency were assessed using the Osteoporosis Patient Satisfaction Questionnaire. In PRIOR, mean GI tolerability scores increased significantly at month 1 from screening for both treatment groups (oral: 79.3 versus 54.1; IV: 84.4 versus 51.0; p 90% at Month 10). In the CURRENT subanalysis >60% of patients reported improvements in heartburn or acid reflux and >70% indicated improvement in other stomach upset at month 6. Postmenopausal women with GI irritability with daily or weekly BPs experienced improvement in symptoms with extended dosing monthly or quarterly ibandronate compared with baseline.

AES, Automated Construction Cost Estimation System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holder, D.A.

1995-01-01

A - Description of program or function: AES (Automated Estimating System) enters and updates the detailed cost, schedule, contingency, and escalation information contained in a typical construction or other project cost estimates. It combines this information to calculate both un-escalated and escalated and cash flow values for the project. These costs can be reported at varying levels of detail. AES differs from previous versions in at least the following ways: The schedule is entered at the WBS-Participant, Activity level - multiple activities can be assigned to each WBS-Participant combination; the spending curve is defined at the schedule activity level and a weighing factor is defined which determines percentage of cost for the WBS-Participant applied to the schedule activity; Schedule by days instead of Fiscal Year/Quarter; Sales Tax is applied at the Line Item Level- a sales tax codes is selected to indicate Material, Large Single Item, or Professional Services; a 'data filter' has been added to allow user to define data the report is to be generated for. B - Method of solution: Average Escalation Rate: The average escalation for a Bill of is calculated in three steps. 1. A table of quarterly escalation factors is calculated based on the base fiscal year and quarter of the project entered in the estimate record and the annual escalation rates entered in the Standard Value File. 2. The percentage distribution of costs by quarter for the Bill of Material is calculated based on the schedule entered and the curve type. 3. The percent in each fiscal year and quarter in the distribution is multiplied by the escalation factor for the fiscal year and quarter. The sum of these results is the average escalation rate for that Bill of Material. Schedule by curve: The allocation of costs to specific time periods is dependent on three inputs, starting schedule date, ending schedule date, and the percentage of costs allocated to each quarter. Contingency Analysis: The

Cooperative research with the Institute of Resources and Environment Technology. Estimation and investigation of estimation method on property change accompanied with excavation. Intermediate report in 1994 and 1995 fiscal year

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-03-01

The Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation (PRNFDC) and the Institute of Resources and Environment Technology (IRET) of Agency of Industrial Science and Technology conducted a cooperative research on a testing study based on in-door fundamental examination on Acoustic emission (AE) original position measuring tester to catch property change due to micro elastic wave formed with generation and propagation of rock deformation and fracture and AE measurement and specific resistance tomography under 3 years plan from 1989 fiscal year. In 1994 fiscal year, survey on the specific resistance tomography for pre-research on tunnel excavation effect test and experiment on the specific resistance measurement at in-door scale for fundamental study of estimation method were conducted. And, in 1995 fiscal year, by laying a main point of the experiment at in-door scale, the estimation and investigation on the excavation effect estimation method on a base of the past study results on the fundamental experiment results were conducted. In this paper, these experiment results conducted at IRET and PRNFDC in 1994 and 1995 fiscal years were reported. (G.K.)

A developmental study of risky decisions on the cake gambling task: age and gender analyses of probability estimation and reward evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Leijenhorst, Linda; Westenberg, P Michiel; Crone, Eveline A

2008-01-01

Decision making, or the process of choosing between competing courses of actions, is highly sensitive to age-related change, showing development throughout adolescence. In this study, we tested whether the development of decision making under risk is related to changes in risk-estimation abilities. Participants (N = 93) between ages 8-30 performed a child friendly gambling task, the Cake Gambling task, which was inspired by the Cambridge Gambling Task (Rogers et al., 1999), which has previously been shown to be sensitive to orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) damage. The task allowed comparisons of the contributions to risk perception of (1) the ability to estimate probabilities and (2) evaluate rewards. Adult performance patterns were highly similar to those found in previous reports, showing increased risk taking with increases in the probability of winning and the magnitude of potential reward. Behavioral patterns in children and adolescents did not differ from adult patterns, showing a similar ability for probability estimation and reward evaluation. These data suggest that participants 8 years and older perform like adults in a gambling task, previously shown to depend on the OFC in which all the information needed to make an advantageous decision is given on each trial and no information needs to be inferred from previous behavior. Interestingly, at all ages, females were more risk-averse than males. These results suggest that the increase in real-life risky behavior that is seen in adolescence is not a consequence of changes in risk perception abilities. The findings are discussed in relation to theories about the protracted development of the prefrontal cortex.

Clinical activity of fulvestrant in metastatic breast cancer previously treated with endocrine therapy and/or chemotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Heo, Mi Hwa; Kim, Hee Kyung; Lee, Hansang; Kim, Ji-Yeon; Ahn, Jin-Seok; Im, Young-Hyuck; Park, Yeon Hee

2018-03-16

We conducted a retrospective analysis of the clinical activity of fulvestrant in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative metastatic breast cancer (MBC) previously treated with endocrine therapy and/or chemotherapy. We reviewed the medical records of all patients with MBC treated at Samsung Medical Center between January 2009 and August 2016. Patients received fulvestrant 250 mg intramuscularly every 28 days (from January 2009 to November 2010) or 500 mg intramuscularly every 28 days (from December 2010 to August 2016). Tumor responses were assessed every 8 weeks and at the end of treatment, as well as when disease progression was suspected. A total of 84 patients were included in this study. A median of two previous endocrine treatments had been performed; 79% of the patients had received two or more endocrine treatments. Forty-five patients (54%) had been treated with chemotherapy for MBC before the fulvestrant treatment course. Visceral metastasis was found in 49 patients (58%). The estimated median progression-free survival and overall survival were 4.4 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.4 to 5.5) and 32.5 months (95% CI, 17.6 to 47.4), respectively. The disease control rate was 40.5% (95% CI, 30.5 to 51.5); partial response was observed in 16% of the patients and stable disease was observed in 25% of the patients. The most frequently reported adverse reactions were mild-to-moderate grade myalgia (10.5% of the patients), injection site pain (7%), and fatigue (7%). Fulvestrant was generally well tolerated. Fulvestrant showed encouraging clinical activity and favorable feasibility in postmenopausal women with MBC who had been treated with multiple endocrine therapies and/or cytotoxic chemotherapies.

Previous Mental Disorders and Subsequent Onset of Chronic Back or Neck Pain: Findings From 19 Countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Viana, Maria Carmen; Lim, Carmen C W; Garcia Pereira, Flavia; Aguilar-Gaxiola, Sergio; Alonso, Jordi; Bruffaerts, Ronny; de Jonge, Peter; Caldas-de-Almeida, Jose Miguel; O'Neill, Siobhan; Stein, Dan J; Al-Hamzawi, Ali; Benjet, Corina; Cardoso, Graça; Florescu, Silvia; de Girolamo, Giovanni; Haro, Josep Maria; Hu, Chiyi; Kovess-Masfety, Viviane; Levinson, Daphna; Piazza, Marina; Posada-Villa, José; Rabczenko, Daniel; Kessler, Ronald C; Scott, Kate M

2018-01-01

Associations between depression/anxiety and pain are well established, but its directionality is not clear. We examined the associations between temporally previous mental disorders and subsequent self-reported chronic back/neck pain onset, and investigated the variation in the strength of associations according to timing of events during the life course, and according to gender. Data were from population-based household surveys conducted in 19 countries (N = 52,095). Lifetime prevalence and age of onset of 16 mental disorders according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, and the occurrence and age of onset of back/neck pain were assessed using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Survival analyses estimated the associations between first onset of mental disorders and subsequent back/neck pain onset. All mental disorders were positively associated with back/neck pain in bivariate analyses; most (12 of 16) remained so after adjusting for psychiatric comorbidity, with a clear dose-response relationship between number of mental disorders and subsequent pain. Early-onset disorders were stronger predictors of pain; when adjusting for psychiatric comorbidity, this remained the case for depression/dysthymia. No gender differences were observed. In conclusion, individuals with mental disorder, beyond depression and anxiety, are at higher risk of developing subsequent back/neck pain, stressing the importance of early detection of mental disorders, and highlight the need of assessing back/neck pain in mental health clinical settings. Previous mental disorders according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition are positively associated with subsequent back/neck pain onset, with a clear dose-response relationship between number of mental disorders and subsequent pain. Earlier-onset mental disorders are stronger predictors of subsequent pain onset, compared with later-onset disorders

Conceptual design report: Nuclear materials storage facility renovation. Part 7, Estimate data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

The Nuclear Materials Storage Facility (NMSF) at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) was a Fiscal Year (FY) 1984 line-item project completed in 1987 that has never been operated because of major design and construction deficiencies. This renovation project, which will correct those deficiencies and allow operation of the facility, is proposed as an FY 97 line item. The mission of the project is to provide centralized intermediate and long-term storage of special nuclear materials (SNM) associated with defined LANL programmatic missions and to establish a centralized SNM shipping and receiving location for Technical Area (TA)-55 at LANL. Based on current projections, existing storage space for SNM at other locations at LANL will be loaded to capacity by approximately 2002. This will adversely affect LANUs ability to meet its mission requirements in the future. The affected missions include LANL's weapons research, development, and testing (WRD ampersand T) program; special materials recovery; stockpile survelliance/evaluation; advanced fuels and heat sources development and production; and safe, secure storage of existing nuclear materials inventories. The problem is further exacerbated by LANL's inability to ship any materials offsite because of the lack of receiver sites for mate rial and regulatory issues. Correction of the current deficiencies and enhancement of the facility will provide centralized storage close to a nuclear materials processing facility. The project will enable long-term, cost-effective storage in a secure environment with reduced radiation exposure to workers, and eliminate potential exposures to the public. This report is organized according to the sections and subsections outlined by Attachment III-2 of DOE Document AL 4700.1, Project Management System. It is organized into seven parts. This document, Part VII - Estimate Data, contains the project cost estimate information

Conceptual design report: Nuclear materials storage facility renovation. Part 7, Estimate data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-07-14

The Nuclear Materials Storage Facility (NMSF) at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) was a Fiscal Year (FY) 1984 line-item project completed in 1987 that has never been operated because of major design and construction deficiencies. This renovation project, which will correct those deficiencies and allow operation of the facility, is proposed as an FY 97 line item. The mission of the project is to provide centralized intermediate and long-term storage of special nuclear materials (SNM) associated with defined LANL programmatic missions and to establish a centralized SNM shipping and receiving location for Technical Area (TA)-55 at LANL. Based on current projections, existing storage space for SNM at other locations at LANL will be loaded to capacity by approximately 2002. This will adversely affect LANUs ability to meet its mission requirements in the future. The affected missions include LANL`s weapons research, development, and testing (WRD&T) program; special materials recovery; stockpile survelliance/evaluation; advanced fuels and heat sources development and production; and safe, secure storage of existing nuclear materials inventories. The problem is further exacerbated by LANL`s inability to ship any materials offsite because of the lack of receiver sites for mate rial and regulatory issues. Correction of the current deficiencies and enhancement of the facility will provide centralized storage close to a nuclear materials processing facility. The project will enable long-term, cost-effective storage in a secure environment with reduced radiation exposure to workers, and eliminate potential exposures to the public. This report is organized according to the sections and subsections outlined by Attachment III-2 of DOE Document AL 4700.1, Project Management System. It is organized into seven parts. This document, Part VII - Estimate Data, contains the project cost estimate information.

The association between estimated average glucose levels and fasting plasma glucose levels in a rural tertiary care centre

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raja Reddy P

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The level of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c, also known as glycated hemoglobin, determines how well a patient’s blood glucose level has been controlled over the previous 8-12 weeks. HbA1c levels help patients and doctors understand whether a particular diabetes treatment is working and whether adjustments need to be made to the treatment. Because the HbA1c level is a marker of blood glucose for the previous 60- 90 days, average blood glucose levels can be estimated using HbA1c levels. Aim in the present study was to investigate the relationship between estimated average glucose levels, as calculated by HbA1c levels, and fasting plasma glucose levels. Methods: Type 2 diabetes patients attending medicine outpatient department of RL Jalappa hospital, Kolar between March 2010 and July 2012 were taken. The estimated glucose levels (mg/dl were calculated using the following formula: 28.7 x HbA1c-46.7. Glucose levels were determined using the hexokinase method. HbA1c levels were determined using an HPLC method. Correlation and independent t- test was the test of significance for quantitative data. Results: A strong positive correlation between fasting plasma glucose level and estimated average blood glucose levels (r=0.54, p=0.0001 was observed. The difference was statistically significant. Conclusion: Reporting the estimated average glucose level together with the HbA1c level is believed to assist patients and doctors determine the effectiveness of blood glucose control measures.

Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, Michiel; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gillett, Nathan P.; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Riahi, Keywan; Allen, Myles; Knutti, Reto

2016-01-01

Several methods exist to estimate the cumulative carbon emissions that would keep global warming to below a given temperature limit. Here we review estimates reported by the IPCC and the recent literature, and discuss the reasons underlying their differences. The most scientifically robust

A review of radiation risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-06-01

Three authoritative reports (UNSCEAR-1988, BEIR-V-1990, and ICRP-1990 Recommendations) on risk estimates have been reviewed and compared to previous risk estimates published by the same organizations. The ICRP now uses the term 'probability' in place of the term 'risk'. For fatal cancers, the new ICRP probability estimates are 5.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of all ages and 4.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of working age. For serious hereditary effects summarized over all generations, the ICRP probability coefficients are 1.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of all ages and 0.6 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of working age. For prenatal irradiation, at 8 - 15 weeks after conception, there may be a decrease of 30 I.Q. points per Sv and a risk of cancer which may lie in the range of 2 to 10 x 10 -2 Sv -1 . Based mainly on the new probability estimates the ICRP recommends a limit on effective dose of 20 mSv per year, averaged over 5 years (100 mSv in 5 years) with the further provision that the effective dose should not exceed 50 mSv in any single year. For public exposure the ICRP recommends an annual limit on effective dose of 1 mSv. However, in special circumstances, a higher value of effective dose could be allowed in a single year provided that the average over 5 five years does not exceed 1 mSv per year. Once pregnancy has been declared, the conceptus should be protected by applying a supplementary equivalent dose limit to the surface of the woman's abdomen of 2 mSv for the remainder of the pregnancy and by limiting intakes of radionuclides to about 1/20 of the annual limit on intake. A brief survey of epidemiological studies of workers and the risks from radon and thoron progeny is also included. (110 refs, 29 tabs., 10 figs.)

Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sen Phang

2015-12-01

Conclusions: Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing.

Stochastic Estimation via Polynomial Chaos

Science.gov (United States)

2015-10-01

AFRL-RW-EG-TR-2015-108 Stochastic Estimation via Polynomial Chaos Douglas V. Nance Air Force Research...COVERED (From - To) 20-04-2015 – 07-08-2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Stochastic Estimation via Polynomial Chaos ...This expository report discusses fundamental aspects of the polynomial chaos method for representing the properties of second order stochastic

Robust Fault Estimation Design for Discrete-Time Nonlinear Systems via A Modified Fuzzy Fault Estimation Observer.

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Xiang-Peng; Yue, Dong; Park, Ju H

2018-02-01

The paper provides relaxed designs of fault estimation observer for nonlinear dynamical plants in the Takagi-Sugeno form. Compared with previous theoretical achievements, a modified version of fuzzy fault estimation observer is implemented with the aid of the so-called maximum-priority-based switching law. Given each activated switching status, the appropriate group of designed matrices can be provided so as to explore certain key properties of the considered plants by means of introducing a set of matrix-valued variables. Owing to the reason that more abundant information of the considered plants can be updated in due course and effectively exploited for each time instant, the conservatism of the obtained result is less than previous theoretical achievements and thus the main defect of those existing methods can be overcome to some extent in practice. Finally, comparative simulation studies on the classical nonlinear truck-trailer model are given to certify the benefits of the theoretic achievement which is obtained in our study. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The application of mean field theory to image motion estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, J; Hanauer, G G

1995-01-01

Previously, Markov random field (MRF) model-based techniques have been proposed for image motion estimation. Since motion estimation is usually an ill-posed problem, various constraints are needed to obtain a unique and stable solution. The main advantage of the MRF approach is its capacity to incorporate such constraints, for instance, motion continuity within an object and motion discontinuity at the boundaries between objects. In the MRF approach, motion estimation is often formulated as an optimization problem, and two frequently used optimization methods are simulated annealing (SA) and iterative-conditional mode (ICM). Although the SA is theoretically optimal in the sense of finding the global optimum, it usually takes many iterations to converge. The ICM, on the other hand, converges quickly, but its results are often unsatisfactory due to its "hard decision" nature. Previously, the authors have applied the mean field theory to image segmentation and image restoration problems. It provides results nearly as good as SA but with much faster convergence. The present paper shows how the mean field theory can be applied to MRF model-based motion estimation. This approach is demonstrated on both synthetic and real-world images, where it produced good motion estimates.

Estimation of potential uranium resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Curry, D.L.

1977-09-01

Potential estimates, like reserves, are limited by the information on hand at the time and are not intended to indicate the ultimate resources. Potential estimates are based on geologic judgement, so their reliability is dependent on the quality and extent of geologic knowledge. Reliability differs for each of the three potential resource classes. It is greatest for probable potential resources because of the greater knowledge base resulting from the advanced stage of exploration and development in established producing districts where most of the resources in this class are located. Reliability is least for speculative potential resources because no significant deposits are known, and favorability is inferred from limited geologic data. Estimates of potential resources are revised as new geologic concepts are postulated, as new types of uranium ore bodies are discovered, and as improved geophysical and geochemical techniques are developed and applied. Advances in technology that permit the exploitation of deep or low-grade deposits, or the processing of ores of previously uneconomic metallurgical types, also will affect the estimates

INTRODUCTION Previous reports have documented a high ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Conclusion: The positive effect of education on oral hygiene practices is highlighted in this study. However there is still need for proper health enlightenment in this population with regards to use of the available oral health care facilities. Keywords: Oral hygiene, Pregnancy, Nigeria. Annals of Ibadan Postgraduate Medicine.

Sinusoidal Order Estimation Using Angles between Subspaces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Søren Holdt Jensen

2009-01-01

Full Text Available We consider the problem of determining the order of a parametric model from a noisy signal based on the geometry of the space. More specifically, we do this using the nontrivial angles between the candidate signal subspace model and the noise subspace. The proposed principle is closely related to the subspace orthogonality property known from the MUSIC algorithm, and we study its properties and compare it to other related measures. For the problem of estimating the number of complex sinusoids in white noise, a computationally efficient implementation exists, and this problem is therefore considered in detail. In computer simulations, we compare the proposed method to various well-known methods for order estimation. These show that the proposed method outperforms the other previously published subspace methods and that it is more robust to the noise being colored than the previously published methods.

Estimating correlation and covariance matrices by weighting of market similarity

OpenAIRE

Michael C. M\\"unnix; Rudi Sch\\"afer; Oliver Grothe

2010-01-01

We discuss a weighted estimation of correlation and covariance matrices from historical financial data. To this end, we introduce a weighting scheme that accounts for similarity of previous market conditions to the present one. The resulting estimators are less biased and show lower variance than either unweighted or exponentially weighted estimators. The weighting scheme is based on a similarity measure which compares the current correlation structure of the market to the structures at past ...

Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, Michiel; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gillett, Nathan P.; Vuuren, Van Detlef P.; Riahi, Keywan; Allen, Myles; Knutti, Reto

2016-01-01

Several methods exist to estimate the cumulative carbon emissions that would keep global warming to below a given temperature limit. Here we review estimates reported by the IPCC and the recent literature, and discuss the reasons underlying their differences. The most scientifically robust

49 CFR 173.23 - Previously authorized packaging.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Previously authorized packaging. 173.23 Section... REQUIREMENTS FOR SHIPMENTS AND PACKAGINGS Preparation of Hazardous Materials for Transportation § 173.23 Previously authorized packaging. (a) When the regulations specify a packaging with a specification marking...

Do Indonesian Children's Experiences with Large Currency Units Facilitate Magnitude Estimation of Long Temporal Periods?

Science.gov (United States)

Cheek, Kim A.

2017-08-01

Ideas about temporal (and spatial) scale impact students' understanding across science disciplines. Learners have difficulty comprehending the long time periods associated with natural processes because they have no referent for the magnitudes involved. When people have a good "feel" for quantity, they estimate cardinal number magnitude linearly. Magnitude estimation errors can be explained by confusion about the structure of the decimal number system, particularly in terms of how powers of ten are related to one another. Indonesian children regularly use large currency units. This study investigated if they estimate long time periods accurately and if they estimate those time periods the same way they estimate analogous currency units. Thirty-nine children from a private International Baccalaureate school estimated temporal magnitudes up to 10,000,000,000 years in a two-part study. Artifacts children created were compared to theoretical model predictions previously used in number magnitude estimation studies as reported by Landy et al. (Cognitive Science 37:775-799, 2013). Over one third estimated the magnitude of time periods up to 10,000,000,000 years linearly, exceeding what would be expected based upon prior research with children this age who lack daily experience with large quantities. About half treated successive powers of ten as a count sequence instead of multiplicatively related when estimating magnitudes of time periods. Children generally estimated the magnitudes of long time periods and familiar, analogous currency units the same way. Implications for ways to improve the teaching and learning of this crosscutting concept/overarching idea are discussed.

Incentives for reporting disease outbreaks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ramanan Laxminarayan

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Countries face conflicting incentives to report infectious disease outbreaks. Reports of outbreaks can prompt other countries to impose trade and travel restrictions, which has the potential to discourage reporting. However, reports can also bring medical assistance to contain the outbreak, including access to vaccines. METHODS: We compiled data on reports of meningococcal meningitis to the World Health Organization (WHO from 54 African countries between 1966 and 2002, a period is marked by two events: first, a large outbreak reported from many countries in 1987 associated with the Hajj that resulted in more stringent requirements for meningitis vaccination among pilgrims; and second, another large outbreak in Sub-Saharan Africa in 1996 that led to a new international mechanism to supply vaccines to countries reporting a meningitis outbreak. We used fixed-effects regression modeling to statistically estimate the effect of external forcing events on the number of countries reporting cases of meningitis to WHO. FINDINGS: We find that the Hajj vaccination requirements started in 1988 were associated with reduced reporting, especially among countries with relatively fewer cases reported between 1966 and 1979. After the vaccine provision mechanism was in place in 1996, reporting among countries that had previously not reported meningitis outbreaks increased. INTERPRETATION: These results indicate that countries may respond to changing incentives to report outbreaks when they can do so. In the long term, these incentives are likely to be more important than surveillance assistance in prompt reporting of outbreaks.

Indirect estimators in US federal programs

CERN Document Server

1996-01-01

In 1991, a subcommittee of the Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology met to document the use of indirect estimators - that is, estimators which use data drawn from a domain or time different from the domain or time for which an estimate is required. This volume comprises the eight reports which describe the use of indirect estimators and they are based on case studies from a variety of federal programs. As a result, many researchers will find this book provides a valuable survey of how indirect estimators are used in practice and which addresses some of the pitfalls of these methods.

Glass Property Data and Models for Estimating High-Level Waste Glass Volume

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vienna, John D.; Fluegel, Alexander; Kim, Dong-Sang; Hrma, Pavel R.

2009-10-05

This report describes recent efforts to develop glass property models that can be used to help estimate the volume of high-level waste (HLW) glass that will result from vitrification of Hanford tank waste. The compositions of acceptable and processable HLW glasses need to be optimized to minimize the waste-form volume and, hence, to save cost. A database of properties and associated compositions for simulated waste glasses was collected for developing property-composition models. This database, although not comprehensive, represents a large fraction of data on waste-glass compositions and properties that were available at the time of this report. Glass property-composition models were fit to subsets of the database for several key glass properties. These models apply to a significantly broader composition space than those previously publised. These models should be considered for interim use in calculating properties of Hanford waste glasses.

Glass Property Data and Models for Estimating High-Level Waste Glass Volume

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vienna, John D.; Fluegel, Alexander; Kim, Dong-Sang; Hrma, Pavel R.

2009-01-01

This report describes recent efforts to develop glass property models that can be used to help estimate the volume of high-level waste (HLW) glass that will result from vitrification of Hanford tank waste. The compositions of acceptable and processable HLW glasses need to be optimized to minimize the waste-form volume and, hence, to save cost. A database of properties and associated compositions for simulated waste glasses was collected for developing property-composition models. This database, although not comprehensive, represents a large fraction of data on waste-glass compositions and properties that were available at the time of this report. Glass property-composition models were fit to subsets of the database for several key glass properties. These models apply to a significantly broader composition space than those previously publised. These models should be considered for interim use in calculating properties of Hanford waste glasses.

Estimates of US biomass energy consumption 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

This report is the seventh in a series of publications developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to quantify the biomass-derived primary energy used by the US economy. It presents estimates of 1991 and 1992 consumption. The objective of this report is to provide updated estimates of biomass energy consumption for use by Congress, Federal and State agencies, biomass producers and end-use sectors, and the public at large

Estimates of US biomass energy consumption 1992

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-05-06

This report is the seventh in a series of publications developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to quantify the biomass-derived primary energy used by the US economy. It presents estimates of 1991 and 1992 consumption. The objective of this report is to provide updated estimates of biomass energy consumption for use by Congress, Federal and State agencies, biomass producers and end-use sectors, and the public at large.

Analysis of over 10,000 Cases finds no association between previously reported candidate polymorphisms and ovarian cancer outcome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

White, Kristin L; Vierkant, Robert A; Fogarty, Zachary C

2013-01-01

Ovarian cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related death among women. In an effort to understand contributors to disease outcome, we evaluated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) previously associated with ovarian cancer recurrence or survival, specifically in angiogenesis, inflammation, mitosis...

Estimates of US biofuels consumption, 1990

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-10-01

This report is the sixth in the series of publications developed by the Energy Information Administration to quantify the amount of biofuel-derived primary energy used by the US economy. It provides preliminary estimates of 1990 US biofuels energy consumption by sector and by biofuels energy resource type. The objective of this report is to provide updated annual estimates of biofuels energy consumption for use by congress, federal and state agencies, and other groups involved in activities related to the use of biofuels. 5 figs., 10 tabs

Estimates of US biofuels consumption, 1990

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1991-10-01

This report is the sixth in the series of publications developed by the Energy Information Administration to quantify the amount of biofuel-derived primary energy used by the US economy. It provides preliminary estimates of 1990 US biofuels energy consumption by sector and by biofuels energy resource type. The objective of this report is to provide updated annual estimates of biofuels energy consumption for use by congress, federal and state agencies, and other groups involved in activities related to the use of biofuels. 5 figs., 10 tabs.

Population estimates of extended family structure and size.

Science.gov (United States)

Garceau, Anne; Wideroff, Louise; McNeel, Timothy; Dunn, Marsha; Graubard, Barry I

2008-01-01

Population-based estimates of biological family size can be useful for planning genetic studies, assessing how distributions of relatives affect disease associations with family history and estimating prevalence of potential family support. Mean family size per person is estimated from a population-based telephone survey (n = 1,019). After multivariate adjustment for demographic variables, older and non-White respondents reported greater mean numbers of total, first- and second-degree relatives. Females reported more total and first-degree relatives, while less educated respondents reported more second-degree relatives. Demographic differences in family size have implications for genetic research. Therefore, periodic collection of family structure data in representative populations would be useful. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Nuclear material inventory estimation in solvent extraction contractors II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beyerlein, A.

1987-11-01

The effectiveness of near-real-time nuclear materials accounting in reprocessing facilities can be limited by inventory variations in the separations contactors. Investigations are described in three areas: (i) Improvements in the model that the authors have described previously for the steady state inventory estimation in mixer-settler contactors, (ii) extension for the model for steady state inventory estimation to transient inventory estimation for non-steady state conditions, and (iii) the development of a computer model CUSEP (Clemson University Solvent Extraction Program) for simulating the concentration profiles and nuclear material inventories in pulsed column contactors. Improvements in the steady state model that are described in this report are the simplification of the methods for evaluating model parameters and development of methods for reducing the equation which estimates the total inventory of the set of contactors directly. The pulsed column computer model CUSEP (Clemson University Solvent Extraction Program) was developed. Concentration profiles and inventories calculated from CUSEP are compared with measured data from pilot scale contactors containing uranium. Excellent agreement between measured and simulated data for both the concentration profile and inventories is obtained, demonstrating that the program correctly predicts the concentration dispersion caused by pulsing and the dispersed phase holdup within the contactor. Further research to investigate (i) correction of the MUF (Material Unaccounted For) and CUMUF (Cumulative Material Unaccounted For) tests for mixer-settler contactor inventory using the simplified model developed in this work, (ii) development of a simple inventory estimation model for pulsed column contactors similar to that developed for mixer-settler contactors using CUSEP to provide necessary database, and (iii) sources of bias appearing in the MUF and CUMUF tests using computer simulation techniques are planned. Refs

International Uranium Resources Evaluation Project (IUREP) orientation phase mission summary report: Zambia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-01-01

A report has recently been published which describes the findings of the International Uranium Resources Evaluation Project (IUREP) mission to Zambia. The IUREP Orientation Phase mission to Zambia estimates that the Speculative Resources of that country fall within the range of 33 000 and 100 000 tonnes uranium. The majority of these resources are believed to exist in the Karoo sediments. Other potentially favourable geological environments are the Precambrian Katanga sediments, as well as intrusive rocks of different chemical compositions and surficial duricrusts. Previous unofficial estimates of Zambia's Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR) and Estimated Additional Resources (EAR) are considered to be still valid: the total RAR amount to 6 000 tonnes uranium, located in Karoo (4 000 tonnes) and Katanga (2 000 tonnes) sediments, while the EAR are believed to total 4 000 tonnes being found only in Karoo sediments. The mission recommends that approximately US$ 40 million be spent on uranium exploration in Zambia over 10 years. The largest part of this expenditure would be for drilling, while the remainder should be spent on airborne and ground surveys, as well as on interpretative work on previous airborne data, Landsat imageries, etc. (author)

22 CFR 40.91 - Certain aliens previously removed.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Certain aliens previously removed. 40.91... IMMIGRANTS UNDER THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT, AS AMENDED Aliens Previously Removed § 40.91 Certain aliens previously removed. (a) 5-year bar. An alien who has been found inadmissible, whether as a result...

MONITORED GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY LIFE CYCLE COST ESTIMATE ASSUMPTIONS DOCUMENT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

R.E. Sweeney

2001-01-01

The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost (LCC) estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA) , License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR cost estimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance

Monitored Geologic Repository Life Cycle Cost Estimate Assumptions Document

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sweeney, R.

2000-01-01

The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA), License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR cost estimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance

Does the inclusion of grey literature influence estimates of intervention effectiveness reported in meta-analyses?

Science.gov (United States)

McAuley, L; Pham, B; Tugwell, P; Moher, D

2000-10-07

The inclusion of only a subset of all available evidence in a meta-analysis may introduce biases and threaten its validity; this is particularly likely if the subset of included studies differ from those not included, which may be the case for published and grey literature (unpublished studies, with limited distribution). We set out to examine whether exclusion of grey literature, compared with its inclusion in meta-analysis, provides different estimates of the effectiveness of interventions assessed in randomised trials. From a random sample of 135 meta-analyses, we identified and retrieved 33 publications that included both grey and published primary studies. The 33 publications contributed 41 separate meta-analyses from several disease areas. General characteristics of the meta-analyses and associated studies and outcome data at the trial level were collected. We explored the effects of the inclusion of grey literature on the quantitative results using logistic-regression analyses. 33% of the meta-analyses were found to include some form of grey literature. The grey literature, when included, accounts for between 4.5% and 75% of the studies in a meta-analysis. On average, published work, compared with grey literature, yielded significantly larger estimates of the intervention effect by 15% (ratio of odds ratios=1.15 [95% CI 1.04-1.28]). Excluding abstracts from the analysis further compounded the exaggeration (1.33 [1.10-1.60]). The exclusion of grey literature from meta-analyses can lead to exaggerated estimates of intervention effectiveness. In general, meta-analysts should attempt to identify, retrieve, and include all reports, grey and published, that meet predefined inclusion criteria.

[Estimated prevalence of autism spectrum disorders in the Canary Islands].

Science.gov (United States)

Fortea Sevilla, M S; Escandell Bermúdez, M O; Castro Sánchez, J J

2013-12-01

To make an initial estimate of the prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) among children in the province of Las Palmas (Spain). Descriptive study was conducted on 1,796 children between the ages of 18 and 30 months of age, all part of the Child Health Surveillance of the Canary Islands, more specifically the province of Las Palmas, with a population of 1,090,605. The parents of children involved completed the Spanish version of the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (M-CHAT/ES) in the paediatric clinic. The positive cases were then diagnosed by experts by means of the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised (ADIR) and the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS). A 0.61% prevalence of ASDs was determined, similar to that reported in previous studies using the same tools. The ratio was six girls for every five boys. This was contrary to the results of previous studies which suggested more boys than girls were affected. This may have been due to the sample size, which will have to be increased in future studies to confirm this outcome. An increased sample size and also spread to other age ranges should be used in order to obtain a more reliable estimate of prevalence. As regards the gender ratio, this could be a result of the small size of the sample researched, and should therefore be confirmed by further studies. Copyright © 2012 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Differences between previously married and never married 'gay' men: family background, childhood experiences and current attitudes.

Science.gov (United States)

Higgins, Daryl J

2004-01-01

Despite a large body of literature on the development of sexual orientation, little is known about why some gay men have been (or remain) married to a woman. In the current study, a self-selected sample of 43 never married gay men ('never married') and 26 gay men who were married to a woman ('previously married') completed a self-report questionnaire. Hypotheses were based on five possible explanations for gay men's marriages: (a) differences in sexual orientation (i.e., bisexuality); (b) internalized homophobia; (c) religious intolerance; (d) confusion created because of childhood/adolescent sexual experiences; and/or (e) poor psychological adjustment. Previously married described their families' religious beliefs as more fundamentalist than never married. No differences were found between married' and never married' ratings of their sexual orientation and identity, and levels of homophobia and self-depreciation. Family adaptability and family cohesion and the degree to which respondents reported having experienced child maltreatment did not distinguish between previously married and never married. The results highlight how little is understood of the reasons why gay men marry, and the need to develop an adequate theoretical model.

Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome with cleft lip and palate: A rare, previously unreported association

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K Kannan

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome, also called Pre Excitation Syndrome, is characterized by an extra pathway that conducts the electrical impulses from the atria to the ventricles without the normal delay. We are reporting a case of WPW syndrome with a cleft lip and palate, which is a rare association and previously unreported in literature.

The Relationship of Lumbar Multifidus Muscle Morphology to Previous, Current, and Future Low Back Pain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hebert, Jeffrey J; Kjær, Per; Fritz, Julie M

2014-01-01

of LBP after five and nine years.Summary of Background Data. Although low back pain (LBP) is a major source of disease burden, the biologic determinants of LBP are poorly understood.Methods. Participants were 40-year-old adults randomly sampled from a Danish population and followed-up at ages 45 and 49....... At each time point, participants underwent magnetic resonance imaging and reported ever having had LBP, LBP in the previous year, non-trivial LBP in the previous year, or a history of pain radiating into the legs. Pixel intensity and frequencies from T1-weighted magnetic resonance images identified...

ESTIMATION OF FUNCTIONALS OF SPARSE COVARIANCE MATRICES.

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Jianqing; Rigollet, Philippe; Wang, Weichen

High-dimensional statistical tests often ignore correlations to gain simplicity and stability leading to null distributions that depend on functionals of correlation matrices such as their Frobenius norm and other ℓ r norms. Motivated by the computation of critical values of such tests, we investigate the difficulty of estimation the functionals of sparse correlation matrices. Specifically, we show that simple plug-in procedures based on thresholded estimators of correlation matrices are sparsity-adaptive and minimax optimal over a large class of correlation matrices. Akin to previous results on functional estimation, the minimax rates exhibit an elbow phenomenon. Our results are further illustrated in simulated data as well as an empirical study of data arising in financial econometrics.

High prevalence of genetic variants previously associated with LQT syndrome in new exome data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Refsgaard, Lena; Holst, Anders G; Sadjadieh, Golnaz

2012-01-01

To date, hundreds of variants in 13 genes have been associated with long QT syndrome (LQTS). The prevalence of LQTS is estimated to be between 1:2000 and 1:5000. The knowledge of genetic variation in the general population has until recently been limited, but newly published data from NHLBI GO...... variants KCNH2 P347S; SCN5A: S216L, V1951L; and CAV3 T78M in the control population (n=704) revealed prevalences comparable to those of ESP. Thus, we identified a much higher prevalence of previously LQTS-associated variants than expected in exome data from population studies. Great caution regarding...

Previous experience in manned space flight: A survey of human factors lessons learned

Science.gov (United States)

Chandlee, George O.; Woolford, Barbara

1993-01-01

Previous experience in manned space flight programs can be used to compile a data base of human factors lessons learned for the purpose of developing aids in the future design of inhabited spacecraft. The objectives are to gather information available from relevant sources, to develop a taxonomy of human factors data, and to produce a data base that can be used in the future for those people involved in the design of manned spacecraft operations. A study is currently underway at the Johnson Space Center with the objective of compiling, classifying, and summarizing relevant human factors data bearing on the lessons learned from previous manned space flights. The research reported defines sources of data, methods for collection, and proposes a classification for human factors data that may be a model for other human factors disciplines.

Offsite radiation doses summarized from Hanford environmental monitoring reports for the years 1957-1984

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soldat, J.K.; Price, K.R.; McCormack, W.D.

1986-02-01

Since 1957, evaluations of offsite impacts from each year of operation have been summarized in publicly available, annual environmental reports. These evaluations included estimates of potential radiation exposure to members of the public, either in terms of percentages of the then permissible limits or in terms of radiation dose. The estimated potential radiation doses to maximally exposed individuals from each year of Hanford operations are summarized in a series of tables and figures. The applicable standard for radiation dose to an individual for whom the maximum exposure was estimated is also shown. Although the estimates address potential radiation doses to the public from each year of operations at Hanford between 1957 and 1984, their sum will not produce an accurate estimate of doses accumulated over this time period. The estimates were the best evaluations available at the time to assess potential dose from the current year of operation as well as from any radionuclides still present in the environment from previous years of operation. There was a constant striving for improved evaluation of the potential radiation doses received by members of the public, and as a result the methods and assumptions used to estimate doses were periodically modified to add new pathways of exposure and to increase the accuracy of the dose calculations. Three conclusions were reached from this review: radiation doses reported for the years 1957 through 1984 for the maximum individual did not exceed the applicable dose standards; radiation doses reported over the past 27 years are not additive because of the changing and inconsistent methods used; and results from environmental monitoring and the associated dose calculations reported over the 27 years from 1957 through 1984 do not suggest a significant dose contribution from the buildup in the environment of radioactive materials associated with Hanford operations

Stochastic goal-oriented error estimation with memory

Science.gov (United States)

Ackmann, Jan; Marotzke, Jochem; Korn, Peter

2017-11-01

We propose a stochastic dual-weighted error estimator for the viscous shallow-water equation with boundaries. For this purpose, previous work on memory-less stochastic dual-weighted error estimation is extended by incorporating memory effects. The memory is introduced by describing the local truncation error as a sum of time-correlated random variables. The random variables itself represent the temporal fluctuations in local truncation errors and are estimated from high-resolution information at near-initial times. The resulting error estimator is evaluated experimentally in two classical ocean-type experiments, the Munk gyre and the flow around an island. In these experiments, the stochastic process is adapted locally to the respective dynamical flow regime. Our stochastic dual-weighted error estimator is shown to provide meaningful error bounds for a range of physically relevant goals. We prove, as well as show numerically, that our approach can be interpreted as a linearized stochastic-physics ensemble.

Estimating the cost of a smoking employee.

Science.gov (United States)

Berman, Micah; Crane, Rob; Seiber, Eric; Munur, Mehmet

2014-09-01

We attempted to estimate the excess annual costs that a US private employer may attribute to employing an individual who smokes tobacco as compared to a non-smoking employee. Reviewing and synthesising previous literature estimating certain discrete costs associated with smoking employees, we developed a cost estimation approach that approximates the total of such costs for U.S. employers. We examined absenteeism, presenteesim, smoking breaks, healthcare costs and pension benefits for smokers. Our best estimate of the annual excess cost to employ a smoker is $5816. This estimate should be taken as a general indicator of the extent of excess costs, not as a predictive point value. Employees who smoke impose significant excess costs on private employers. The results of this study may help inform employer decisions about tobacco-related policies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

A rare case of failed healing in previously burned skin after a secondary burns.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldie, Stephen J; Parsons, Shaun; Menezes, Hana; Ives, Andrew; Cleland, Heather

2017-01-01

Patients presenting with large surface area burns are common in our practice; however, patients with a secondary large burn on pre-existing burn scars and grafts are rare and not reported. We report on an unusual case of a patient sustaining a secondary large burn to areas previously injured by a burn from a different mechanism. We discuss the potential implications when managing a case like this and suggest potential biological reasons why the skin may behave differently. Our patient was a 33-year-old man who presented with a 5% TBSA burn on skin scarred by a previous 40% total body surface area (TBSA) burn and skin grafts. Initially assessed as superficial partial thickness in depth, the wounds were treated conservatively with dressings; however, they failed to heal and became infected requiring surgical management. Burns sustained in areas of previous burn scars and grafts may behave differently to normal patterns of healing, requiring more aggressive management and surgical intervention at an early stage.

Micrococcus sedentarius bacteraemia presenting with haemophagocytic syndrome in previously healthy boy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuskonmaz, Baris; Kara, Ates; Ozen, Maide; Cengiz, A Bülent; Ozen, Metehan; Seçmeer, Gülten; Gürgey, Aytemiz

2006-01-01

Haemophagocytic syndromes are the clinical manifestation of an increased macrophagic activity with haemophagocytosis. Infection-associated HS was originally described by Risdall in 1979, in viral disease. Since the initial description HS has also been documented in patients with bacterial, parasitic or fungal infections. We describe a case of Micrococcus sedentarius bacteraemia in a previously healthy 10-y-old boy with haemophagocytic syndrome. Species of micrococci are generally considered as non-pathogenic commensals that colonize the skin, mucosae and oropharynx. We report the first case of Microccoccus sedentarius bacteraemia in an immunocompetent host and first case of HS associated with Micrococcus species.

Community-based field implementation scenarios of a short message service reporting tool for lymphatic filariasis case estimates in Africa and Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Mableson, Hayley E; Martindale, Sarah; Stanton, Michelle C; Mackenzie, Charles; Kelly-Hope, Louise A

2017-01-01

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for global elimination by 2020. Currently there is considerable international effort to scale-up morbidity management activities in endemic countries, however there remains a need for rapid, cost-effective methods and adaptable tools for obtaining estimates of people presenting with clinical manifestations of LF, namely lymphoedema and hydrocele. The mHealth tool ' MeasureSMS-Morbidity ' allows health workers in endemic areas to use their own mobile phones to send clinical information in a simple format using short message service (SMS). The experience gained through programmatic use of the tool in five endemic countries across a diversity of settings in Africa and Asia is used here to present implementation scenarios that are suitable for adapting the tool for use in a range of different programmatic, endemic, demographic and health system settings. A checklist of five key factors and sub-questions was used to determine and define specific community-based field implementation scenarios for using the MeasureSMS-Morbidity tool in a range of settings. These factors included: (I) tool feasibility (acceptability; community access and ownership); (II) LF endemicity (high; low prevalence); (III) population demography (urban; rural); (IV) health system structure (human resources; community access); and (V) integration with other diseases (co-endemicity). Based on experiences in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nepal and Tanzania, four implementation scenarios were identified as suitable for using the MeasureSMS-Morbidity tool for searching and reporting LF clinical case data across a range of programmatic, endemic, demographic and health system settings. These include: (I) urban, high endemic setting with two-tier reporting; (II) rural, high endemic setting with one-tier reporting; (III) rural, high endemic setting with two-tier reporting; and (IV) low-endemic, urban and rural setting with one

Previous Mental Disorders and Subsequent Onset of Chronic Back or Neck Pain : Findings From 19 Countries

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Viana, Maria Carmen; Lim, Carmen C W; Garcia Pereira, Flavia; Aguilar-Gaxiola, Sergio; Alonso, Jordi; Bruffaerts, Ronny; de Jonge, Peter; Caldas-de-Almeida, Jose Miguel; O'Neill, Siobhan; Stein, Dan J; Al-Hamzawi, Ali; Benjet, Corina; Cardoso, Graça; Florescu, Silvia; de Girolamo, Giovanni; Haro, Josep Maria; Hu, Chiyi; Kovess-Masfety, Viviane; Levinson, Daphna; Piazza, Marina; Posada-Villa, José; Rabczenko, Daniel; Kessler, Ronald C; Scott, Kate M

Associations between depression/anxiety and pain are well established, but its directionality is not clear. We examined the associations between temporally previous mental disorders and subsequent self-reported chronic back/neck pain onset, and investigated the variation in the strength of

Maximum likelihood estimation of ancestral codon usage bias parameters in Drosophila

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Rasmus; Bauer DuMont, Vanessa L; Hubisz, Melissa J

2007-01-01

: the selection coefficient for optimal codon usage (S), allowing joint maximum likelihood estimation of S and the dN/dS ratio. We apply the method to previously published data from Drosophila melanogaster, Drosophila simulans, and Drosophila yakuba and show, in accordance with previous results, that the D...

Trends in Adult Chlamydia and Gonorrhea Prevalence, Incidence and Urethral Discharge Case Reporting in Morocco over 1995–2015—Estimates Using the Spectrum-Sexually Transmitted Infection Model

Science.gov (United States)

El-Kettani, Amina; Mahiané, Guy; Bennani, Aziza; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Rowley, Jane; Nagelkerke, Nico; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Hançali, Amina; Korenromp, Eline

2017-01-01

Background Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on sexually transmitted infections (STI) trends to inform program planning and resource allocation. Methods The Spectrum modeling tool estimated prevalence and incidence of gonorrhea and chlamydia in Morocco's 15- to 49-year-old population, based on prevalence surveys. Incident cases, broken down between symptomatic and asymptomatic, and treated versus untreated, were compared with urethral discharge (UD) case reports, to estimate reporting completeness among treated UD cases. Results Gonorrhea prevalence was estimated at 0.37% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.14–1.0%) in women and 0.32% (0.12–0.87%) in men in 2015; chlamydia prevalences were 3.8% (95% CI, 2.1–6.4%) and 3.0% (95% CI, 1.7–5.1%). Corresponding estimated numbers of new cases in women and men in 2015 were 79,598 (95% CI, 23,918–256,206) and 112,013 (95% CI, 28,700–307,433) for gonorrhea, and 291,908 (95% CI, 161,064–524,270) and 314,032 (95% CI, 186,076–559,133) for chlamydia. Gonorrhea and chlamydia prevalence had declined by an estimated 41% and 27%, respectively, over 1995 to 2015. Prevalence declines probably related to improved STI treatment coverage, and decreasing risk behaviors. Reporting completeness among treated UD cases was estimated at 46% to 77% in 2015. Reported UD cases corresponded to 13% of all estimated (symptomatic and asymptomatic) gonorrhea and chlamydia cases. Conclusions STI declines and improvements in treatment coverage are consistent with Morocco’s introduction of syndromic management in 2000, scale-up of prevention, and declining human immunodeficiency virus incidence. While gonorrhea is four-fold more common as cause of clinical UD cases than chlamydia, Morocco continues to suffer a large, untreated burden of chlamydia. Reliable monitoring of both STIs requires new periodic surveys and/or novel forms of affordable surveillance beyond high-risk populations. PMID

Assessment of the effects of microbially influenced degradation on a massive concrete structure. Final report, Report 5

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogers, R.D.

1995-01-01

There is a need to estimate the effect of environmental conditions on construction materials to be used in the repository at Yucca Mountain. Previous reports from this project have demonstrated that it is important to develop an understanding of microbially influenced degradation (MID) development and its influence on massive concrete structures. Further, it has been shown that the most effective way to obtain quantitative data on the effects of MID on the structural integrity of repository concrete is to study manmade, analog structures known to be susceptible to MID. The cooling tower shell located at the Ohaaki Power Station near Wairakei, New Zealand is such a structure

Short Report

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2011-12-13

Dec 13, 2011 ... academic hospitals and medical schools of the world.4-6 In South ... unveiled the previously hidden anxieties of being unable to cope ... cine curriculum. ... Estimating the value of an internal biostatistical consulting service.

Anaesthetic management for caesarean section in a case of previously operated with residual pituitary tumour

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prerana N Shah

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Successful anaesthetic management for caesarean section in a case with previous pituitary tumour resection, with residual tumour, is reported. The pituitary gland undergoes global hyperplasia during pregnancy. Functional pituitary tumours may exhibit symptomatic enlargement during pregnancy. Growth hormone secreting tumour is associated with acromegaly which has associated anaesthetic implications of difficult airway, systemic hypertension, and diabetes and electrolyte imbalance. Intracranial space occupying lesions can increase intra cranial pressure and compromise cerebral perfusion or cause herniation. We report management of this case.

SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

BARCOT, R.A.

2005-08-17

This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

Gastrointestinal tolerability with ibandronate after previous weekly bisphosphonate treatment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard Derman

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Richard Derman1, Joseph D Kohles2, Ann Babbitt31Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Christiana Hospital, Newark, DE, USA; 2Roche, Nutley, NJ, USA; 3Greater Portland Bone and Joint Specialists, Portland, ME, USAAbstract: Data from two open-label trials (PRIOR and CURRENT of women with postmenopausal osteoporosis or osteopenia were evaluated to assess whether monthly oral and quarterly intravenous (IV ibandronate dosing improved self-reported gastrointestinal (GI tolerability for patients who had previously experienced GI irritation with bisphosphonate (BP use. In PRIOR, women who had discontinued daily or weekly BP treatment due to GI intolerance received monthly oral or quarterly IV ibandronate for 12 months. The CURRENT subanalysis included women receiving weekly BP treatment who switched to monthly oral ibandronate for six months. GI symptom severity and frequency were assessed using the Osteoporosis Patient Satisfaction Questionnaire™. In PRIOR, mean GI tolerability scores increased significantly at month 1 from screening for both treatment groups (oral: 79.3 versus 54.1; IV: 84.4 versus 51.0; p < 0.001 for both. Most patients reported improvement in GI symptom severity and frequency from baseline at all post-screening assessments (>90% at Month 10. In the CURRENT subanalysis >60% of patients reported improvements in heartburn or acid reflux and >70% indicated improvement in other stomach upset at month 6. Postmenopausal women with GI irritability with daily or weekly BPs experienced improvement in symptoms with extended dosing monthly or quarterly ibandronate compared with baseline.Keywords: ibandronate, osteoporosis, bisphosphonate, gastrointestinal

Estimation and valuation in accounting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cicilia Ionescu

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The relationships of the enterprise with the external environment give rise to a range of informational needs. Satisfying those needs requires the production of coherent, comparable, relevant and reliable information included into the individual or consolidated financial statements. International Financial Reporting Standards IAS / IFRS aim to ensure the comparability and relevance of the accounting information, providing, among other things, details about the issue of accounting estimates and changes in accounting estimates. Valuation is a process continually used, in order to assign values to the elements that are to be recognised in the financial statements. Most of the times, the values reflected in the books are clear, they are recorded in the contracts with third parties, in the supporting documents, etc. However, the uncertainties in which a reporting entity operates determines that, sometimes, the assigned or values attributable to some items composing the financial statements be determined by use estimates.

Daily Discharge Estimation in Talar River Using Lazy Learning Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zahra Abdollahi

2017-03-01

estimate the discharge of considered day, three methods of constant, linear and quadratic functionscontrollers based on the local linearization provided by the lazy learning algorithm were considered. Lazy learning is a memory-based linear technique for local modeling approach which is reported as a high-efficient algorithm for simulating variables with low input data.The series of input data was categorized into previous 6, 8, 10, 15 and 20 days, 1 and 2 months, 1, 2 and 3 seasons and also 1 and 2 years to evaluate which series is appropriately enough to predict next-day discharge inthe river. Then, mean absolute error and root-mean square error were calculated for all series and modelsin order to find the best estimator model and the most appropriate series of input data. Results: Results showed that constant and linear model had the minimum root-mean square error of 0.001 and 0.057 respectivelywith previous 60 days’ data series. Whilethe quadratic model had its best estimation with previous 2 season data series with the minimum root-mean square error of 0.059. The result indicated that the more input data increase, the best quadratic model estimate until 60 days. But after 60 days, estimation error gradually increased. Consequently, not more data but adequate areneeded for accurate estimation. Also, RMSE in linear model had less fluctuation and therefore less sensitivity compared with other models. And quadratic model had less fluctuation and sensitivity to neighborhoods. Also, according to results, the more variation in each period increase, the better estimation is accrued by lazy learning algorithm. Hence, it was expected that next-day discharge prediction in low-water period needs longer data series than high-water period. Conclusion: Regarding to thousands of prepared training models, constant model with previous 60 days’ data and minimum error of 0.0001 was selected as the most accurate estimatefor next-day river discharge in Talar River. Results showed that

Adolescents' physical activity is associated with previous and current physical activity practice by their parents.

Science.gov (United States)

Christofaro, Diego Giulliano Destro; Andersen, Lars Bo; Andrade, Selma Maffei de; Barros, Mauro Virgílio Gomes de; Saraiva, Bruna Thamyres Ciccotti; Fernandes, Rômulo Araújo; Ritti-Dias, Raphael Mendes

The purpose of this study was to determine whether parents' current and previous physical activity practice is associated with adolescents' physical activity. The sample was composed of 1231 adolescents (14-17 years), and 1202 mothers and 871 fathers were interviewed. Weight and height of the adolescents were measured. Self-reported parents' weight and height were obtained. The current and previous physical activity levels (Baecke's questionnaire) of parents (during childhood and adolescence) and adolescents' physical activity levels were obtained using a questionnaire. The magnitude of the associations between parent and adolescent physical activity levels was determined by binary logistic regression (adjusted by sex, age, and socioeconomic level of adolescents and education level of parents). The current physical activity practice by parents was associated with adolescents' physical activity (p<0.001). The physical activities reported by parents in their childhood and adolescence were also associated with higher physical activity levels among adolescents. Adolescents whose parents were both physically active in the past and present were six times (OR=6.67 [CI=1.94-22.79]) more likely to be physically active compared to adolescents with no parents who were physically active in the past. The current and previous physical activities of parents were associated with higher levels of physical activity in adolescents, even after controlling for confounding factors. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Adolescents' physical activity is associated with previous and current physical activity practice by their parents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diego Giulliano Destro Christofaro

Full Text Available Abstract Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine whether parents' current and previous physical activity practice is associated with adolescents' physical activity. Methods: The sample was composed of 1231 adolescents (14-17 years, and 1202 mothers and 871 fathers were interviewed. Weight and height of the adolescents were measured. Self-reported parents' weight and height were obtained. The current and previous physical activity levels (Baecke's questionnaire of parents (during childhood and adolescence and adolescents' physical activity levels were obtained using a questionnaire. The magnitude of the associations between parent and adolescent physical activity levels was determined by binary logistic regression (adjusted by sex, age, and socioeconomic level of adolescents and education level of parents. Results: The current physical activity practice by parents was associated with adolescents' physical activity (p < 0.001. The physical activities reported by parents in their childhood and adolescence were also associated with higher physical activity levels among adolescents. Adolescents whose parents were both physically active in the past and present were six times (OR = 6.67 [CI = 1.94-22.79] more likely to be physically active compared to adolescents with no parents who were physically active in the past. Conclusions: The current and previous physical activities of parents were associated with higher levels of physical activity in adolescents, even after controlling for confounding factors.

Sunburn and sun-protective behaviors among adults with and without previous nonmelanoma skin cancer: a population-based study

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Alexander H.; Wang, Timothy S.; Yenokyan, Gayane; Kang, Sewon; Chien, Anna L.

2016-01-01

Background Individuals with previous nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) are at increased risk for subsequent skin cancer, and should therefore limit UV exposure. Objective To determine whether individuals with previous NMSC engage in better sun protection than those with no skin cancer history. Methods We pooled self-reported data (2005 and 2010 National Health Interview Surveys) from US non-Hispanic white adults (758 with and 34,161 without previous NMSC). We calculated adjusted prevalence odds ratios (aPOR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), taking into account the complex survey design. Results Individuals with previous NMSC versus no history of NMSC had higher rates of frequent use of shade (44.3% versus 27.0%; aPOR=1.41; 1.16–1.71), long sleeves (20.5% versus 7.7%; aPOR=1.55; 1.21–1.98), a wide-brimmed hat (26.1% versus 10.5%; aPOR=1.52; 1.24–1.87), and sunscreen (53.7% versus 33.1%; aPOR=2.11; 95% CI=1.73–2.59), but did not have significantly lower odds of recent sunburn (29.7% versus 40.7%; aPOR=0.95; 0.77–1.17). Among subjects with previous NMSC, recent sunburn was inversely associated with age, sun avoidance, and shade but not sunscreen. Limitations Self-reported cross-sectional data and unavailable information quantifying regular sun exposure. Conclusion Physicians should emphasize sunburn prevention when counseling patients with previous NMSC, especially younger adults, focusing on shade and sun avoidance over sunscreen. PMID:27198078

Validity of self-reported lunch recalls in Swedish school children aged 6-8 years.