Whole-genome pyrosequencing of an epidemic multidrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii strain belonging to the European clone II group

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iacono, M.; Villa, L.; Fortini, D.

2008-01-01

The whole-genome sequence of an epidemic, multidrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii strain (strain ACICU) belonging to the European clone II group and carrying the plasmid-mediated bla(OXA-58) carbapenem resistance gene was determined. The A. baumannii ACICU genome was compared with the genomes...

[The characteristics of epidemic influenza A and B virus strains circulating in Russia during the 2007-2008 season].

Science.gov (United States)

Ivanova, V T; Trushakova, S V; Oskerko, T A; Shevchenko, E S; Kolobukhina, L V; Vartanian, R V; Beliakova, N V; Iatsyshina, S B; Feodoritova, E L; Zueva, N D; Burtseva, E I

2009-01-01

In 2007-2008 in Russia, the epidemic upsurge of influenza morbidity was caused by the active circulation of influenza A(H1N1, A(H3N2), and B viruses. The center for Ecology and Epidemiology of Influenza studied 334 epidemic strains. The results of a comparative study of the svirus specificity of commercial test systems (AmpliSens Influenza virus A/B and AmpliSens Influenza virus A/H5N1) for the polymerase chain reaction diagnosis and virological assays, including virus isolation, revealed their high correlation, which confirms that they may be expensively used to monitor the circulation of influenza viruses in the Russian Federation. All the strains were isolated in the MDCK cell culture. Influenza A(H1N1) viruses (n = 127) were antigenic variants of the reference strains A/Solomon Islands/3/06 and A/Brisbane/59107. Influenza A(H3N2) viruses (n = 49) were antigenic variants of the reference strains A/Wisconsin/67/05 and A/Brisbane/10/08. One hundred and fifty seven Influenza B strains were drift variants of the reference strains B/Florida/4/06 and B/Shanghai/361/02 of lineage B/Yamagata/16/88 and one strain, a variant of Malaysia/2506/04 related to lineage B/victoria/2/87. The isolates interacted actively with human 0(I) blood group erythrocytes and much more weakly with chicken ones. All study influenza A(H1N1) viruses (n = 74) preserved their sensitivity to rimantadine while 24 (77%) of the 31 study influenza A(H3N2) virus strains were resistant. A study of the time course of changes in the generation of antibodies in the donor sera obtained in Moscow and the Moscow Region in different periods of the epidemic process revealed an increase in antibodies to the reference influenza A and B virus strains circulating in this period.

Listeriolysin S: A bacteriocin from epidemic Listeria monocytogenes strains that targets the gut microbiota.

Science.gov (United States)

Quereda, Juan J; Meza-Torres, Jazmín; Cossart, Pascale; Pizarro-Cerdá, Javier

2017-07-04

Listeria monocytogenes is a Gram-positive food-borne pathogen that in humans may traverse the intestinal, placental and blood/brain barriers, causing gastroenteritis, abortions and meningitis. Crossing of these barriers is dependent on the bacterial ability to enter host cells, and several L. monocytogenes surface and secreted virulence factors are known to facilitate entry and the intracellular lifecycle. The study of L. monocytogenes strains associated to human listeriosis epidemics has revealed the presence of novel virulence factors. One such factor is Listeriolysin S, a thiazole/oxazole modified microcin that displays bactericidal activity and modifies the host microbiota during infection. Our recent results therefore highlight the interaction of L. monocytogenes with gut microbes as a crucial step in epidemic listeriosis. In this article, we will discuss novel implications for this family of toxins in the pathogenesis of diverse medically relevant microorganisms.

Complete Genome Sequences of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus Strains JSLS-1/2015 and JS-2/2015 Isolated from China.

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, Jie; Li, Benqiang; Zhang, Chunling; Liu, Huili

2016-11-10

Two porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) strains, JSLS-1/2015 and JS-2/2015, were isolated from piglets with watery diarrhea in South China. Two genomic sequences were highly homologous to the attenuated DR13 strain. Furthermore, JSLS-1/2015 contains a 24-amino-acid deletion in open reading frame 1b, which was first reported in PEDV isolates. Copyright © 2016 Tao et al.

Genome Structural Diversity among 31 Bordetella pertussis Isolates from Two Recent U.S. Whooping Cough Statewide Epidemics.

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Bowden, Katherine E; Weigand, Michael R; Peng, Yanhui; Cassiday, Pamela K; Sammons, Scott; Knipe, Kristen; Rowe, Lori A; Loparev, Vladimir; Sheth, Mili; Weening, Keeley; Tondella, M Lucia; Williams, Margaret M

2016-01-01

During 2010 and 2012, California and Vermont, respectively, experienced statewide epidemics of pertussis with differences seen in the demographic affected, case clinical presentation, and molecular epidemiology of the circulating strains. To overcome limitations of the current molecular typing methods for pertussis, we utilized whole-genome sequencing to gain a broader understanding of how current circulating strains are causing large epidemics. Through the use of combined next-generation sequencing technologies, this study compared de novo, single-contig genome assemblies from 31 out of 33 Bordetella pertussis isolates collected during two separate pertussis statewide epidemics and 2 resequenced vaccine strains. Final genome architecture assemblies were verified with whole-genome optical mapping. Sixteen distinct genome rearrangement profiles were observed in epidemic isolate genomes, all of which were distinct from the genome structures of the two resequenced vaccine strains. These rearrangements appear to be mediated by repetitive sequence elements, such as high-copy-number mobile genetic elements and rRNA operons. Additionally, novel and previously identified single nucleotide polymorphisms were detected in 10 virulence-related genes in the epidemic isolates. Whole-genome variation analysis identified state-specific variants, and coding regions bearing nonsynonymous mutations were classified into functional annotated orthologous groups. Comprehensive studies on whole genomes are needed to understand the resurgence of pertussis and develop novel tools to better characterize the molecular epidemiology of evolving B. pertussis populations. IMPORTANCE Pertussis, or whooping cough, is the most poorly controlled vaccine-preventable bacterial disease in the United States, which has experienced a resurgence for more than a decade. Once viewed as a monomorphic pathogen, B. pertussis strains circulating during epidemics exhibit diversity visible on a genome structural

Genome-wide study of the defective sucrose fermenter strain of Vibrio cholerae from the Latin American cholera epidemic.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Garza, D.R.; Thompson, C.C.; Loureiro, E.C.; Dutilh, B.E.; Inada, D.T.; Junior, E.C.; Cardoso, J.F.; Nunes, M.R.; Lima, C.P. de; Silvestre, R.V.; Nunes, K.N.; Santos, E.C.; Edwards, R.A.; Vicente, A.C.; Sa Morais, L.L. de

2012-01-01

The 7th cholera pandemic reached Latin America in 1991, spreading from Peru to virtually all Latin American countries. During the late epidemic period, a strain that failed to ferment sucrose dominated cholera outbreaks in the Northern Brazilian Amazon region. In order to understand the genomic

Effect of tcdR Mutation on Sporulation in the Epidemic Clostridium difficile Strain R20291.

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Girinathan, Brintha P; Monot, Marc; Boyle, Daniel; McAllister, Kathleen N; Sorg, Joseph A; Dupuy, Bruno; Govind, Revathi

2017-01-01

Clostridium difficile is an important nosocomial pathogen and the leading cause of hospital-acquired diarrhea. Antibiotic use is the primary risk factor for the development of C. difficile -associated disease because it disrupts normally protective gut flora and enables C. difficile to colonize the colon. C. difficile damages host tissue by secreting toxins and disseminates by forming spores. The toxin-encoding genes, tcdA and tcdB , are part of a pathogenicity locus, which also includes the tcdR gene that codes for TcdR, an alternate sigma factor that initiates transcription of tcdA and tcdB genes. We created a tcdR mutant in epidemic-type C. difficile strain R20291 in an attempt to identify the global role of tcdR . A site-directed mutation in tcdR affected both toxin production and sporulation in C. difficile R20291. Spores of the tcdR mutant were more heat sensitive than the wild type (WT). Nearly 3-fold more taurocholate was needed to germinate spores from the tcdR mutant than to germinate the spores prepared from the WT strain. Transmission electron microscopic analysis of the spores also revealed a weakly assembled exosporium on the tcdR mutant spores. Accordingly, comparative transcriptome analysis showed many differentially expressed sporulation genes in the tcdR mutant compared to the WT strain. These data suggest that regulatory networks of toxin production and sporulation in C. difficile strain R20291 a re linked with each other. IMPORTANCE C. difficile infects thousands of hospitalized patients every year, causing significant morbidity and mortality. C. difficile spores play a pivotal role in the transmission of the pathogen in the hospital environment. During infection, the spores germinate, and the vegetative bacterial cells produce toxins that damage host tissue. Thus, sporulation and toxin production are two important traits of C. difficile . In this study, we showed that a mutation in tcdR , the toxin gene regulator, affects both toxin

Differential infection properties of three inducible prophages from an epidemic strain of Pseudomonas aeruginosa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James Chloe E

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Pseudomonas aeruginosa is the most common bacterial pathogen infecting the lungs of patients with cystic fibrosis (CF. The Liverpool Epidemic Strain (LES is transmissible, capable of superseding other P. aeruginosa populations and is associated with increased morbidity. Previously, multiple inducible prophages have been found to coexist in the LES chromosome and to constitute a major component of the accessory genome not found in other sequenced P. aerugionosa strains. LES phages confer a competitive advantage in a rat model of chronic lung infection and may, therefore underpin LES prevalence. Here the infective properties of three LES phages were characterised. Results This study focuses on three of the five active prophages (LESφ2, LESφ3 and LESφ4 that are members of the Siphoviridae. All were induced from LESB58 by norfloxacin. Lytic production of LESφ2 was considerably higher than that of LESφ3 and LESφ4. Each phage was capable of both lytic and lysogenic infection of the susceptible P. aeruginosa host, PAO1, producing phage-specific plaque morphologies. In the PAO1 host background, the LESφ2 prophage conferred immunity against LESφ3 infection and reduced susceptibility to LESφ4 infection. Each prophage was less stable in the PAO1 chromosome with substantially higher rates of spontaneous phage production than when residing in the native LESB58 host. We show that LES phages are capable of horizontal gene transfer by infecting P. aeruginosa strains from different sources and that type IV pili are required for infection by all three phages. Conclusions Multiple inducible prophages with diverse infection properties have been maintained in the LES genome. Our data suggest that LESφ2 is more sensitive to induction into the lytic cycle or has a more efficient replicative cycle than the other LES phages.

Analysis of the VP2 protein gene of canine parvovirus strains from affected dogs in Japan.

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Soma, Takehisa; Taharaguchi, Satoshi; Ohinata, Tsuyoshi; Ishii, Hiroshi; Hara, Motonobu

2013-04-01

To clarify the evolution of canine parvovirus 2 (CPV-2) that has recently been epidemic in Japan, VP2 gene sequences at positions 3556-4166 were analyzed in 107 CPV-2 strains obtained from rectal swabs of diarrheic dogs from 2009 to 2011. CPV-2b (95 strains) was more frequently detected than CPV-2a (nine strains), while CPV-2c was not detected. Remaining three strains were identified as the original type CPV-2, which should be derived from vaccines. These findings are similar to the previous results involving Japanese strains, suggesting there has been no great change in the recent CPV-2 epidemic in Japan. This epidemic is the same as that in Taiwan. Furthermore, a 324-lle mutant, which has been reported in Korean and Chinese strains, was detected in 66.7% of CPV-2a strains. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mathematical modeling of Avian Influenza epidemic with bird vaccination in constant population

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Kharis, M.; Amidi

2018-03-01

The development of the industrial world and human life is increasingly modern and less attention to environmental sustainability causes the virus causes the epidemic has a high tendency to mutate so that the virus that initially only attack animals, is also found to have the ability to attack humans. The epidemics that lasted some time were bird flu epidemics and swine flu epidemics. The flu epidemic led to several deaths and many people admitted to the hospital. Strain (derivatives) of H5N1 virus was identified as the cause of the bird flu epidemic while the H1N1 strain of the virus was identified as the cause of the swine flu epidemic. The symptoms are similar to seasonal flu caused by H3N2 strain of the virus. Outbreaks of bird flu and swine flu initially only attacked animals, but over time some people were found to be infected with the virus.

Deciphering the Origin of the 2012 Cholera Epidemic in Guinea by Integrating Epidemiological and Molecular Analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Rebaudet, Stanislas; Mengel, Martin A.; Koivogui, Lamine; Moore, Sandra; Mutreja, Ankur; Kande, Yacouba; Yattara, Ousmane; Sarr Keita, Véronique; Njanpop-Lafourcade, Berthe-Marie; Fournier, Pierre-Edouard; Garnotel, Eric; Keita, Sakoba; Piarroux, Renaud

2014-01-01

Cholera is typically considered endemic in West Africa, especially in the Republic of Guinea. However, a three-year lull period was observed from 2009 to 2011, before a new epidemic struck the country in 2012, which was officially responsible for 7,350 suspected cases and 133 deaths. To determine whether cholera re-emerged from the aquatic environment or was rather imported due to human migration, a comprehensive epidemiological and molecular survey was conducted. A spatiotemporal analysis of the national case databases established Kaback Island, located off the southern coast of Guinea, as the initial focus of the epidemic in early February. According to the field investigations, the index case was found to be a fisherman who had recently arrived from a coastal district of neighboring Sierra Leone, where a cholera outbreak had recently occurred. MLVA-based genotype mapping of 38 clinical Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor isolates sampled throughout the epidemic demonstrated a progressive genetic diversification of the strains from a single genotype isolated on Kaback Island in February, which correlated with spatial epidemic spread. Whole-genome sequencing characterized this strain as an “atypical” El Tor variant. Furthermore, genome-wide SNP-based phylogeny analysis grouped the Guinean strain into a new clade of the third wave of the seventh pandemic, distinct from previously analyzed African strains and directly related to a Bangladeshi isolate. Overall, these results highly suggest that the Guinean 2012 epidemic was caused by a V. cholerae clone that was likely imported from Sierra Leone by an infected individual. These results indicate the importance of promoting the cross-border identification and surveillance of mobile and vulnerable populations, including fishermen, to prevent, detect and control future epidemics in the region. Comprehensive epidemiological investigations should be expanded to better understand cholera dynamics and improve disease control

Abortive phage-infection and UV-protection markers on ColI plasmids from epidemic strains of Salmonella

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barker, R.M.

1988-01-01

Cultures of Escherichia coli carrying ColI plasmids received in conjugation from strains of Salmonella typhimurium and S. agona were examined for abortive infection (Abi) of phage BF23 and for enhanced resistance to the lethal action of UV-irradiation (Uvr). The Abi character of stored cultures of E. coli was also compared with the reaction of the same stock culture tested 5 years before. Seven of the eight potential types differentiated by three characters were represented among 160 ColI plasmids: ColIa Abi + Uvr + (3 plasmids), ColIa Abi - Uvr + (1), ColIa Abi - Uvr-> (2), ColIb Abi + Uvr + (85), ColIb Abi + Uvr - (5), ColIb Abi - Uvr + (4), ColIb Abi-? Uvr - (60). Recognition that different plasmid types could be carried by strains of a clone proved useful in the interpretation of the epidemic spread of strains of S. typhimurium of phage type/biotype 141/9f in Scotland and in tracing the ancestry of a recently emerged rhamnose non-fermenting mutant strain of S. agona. (author)

National borders effectively halt the spread of rabies: the current rabies epidemic in China is dislocated from cases in neighboring countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Zhenyang; Tao, Xiaoyan; Yin, Cuiping; Han, Na; Yu, Jinning; Li, Hao; Liu, Haizhou; Fang, Wei; Adams, James; Wang, Jun; Liang, Guodong; Tang, Qing; Rayner, Simon

2013-01-01

China has seen a massive resurgence of rabies cases in the last 15 years with more than 25,000 human fatalities. Initial cases were reported in the southwest but are now reported in almost every province. There have been several phylogenetic investigations into the origin and spread of the virus within China but few reports investigating the impact of the epidemic on neighboring countries. We therefore collected nucleoprotein sequences from China and South East Asia and investigated their phylogenetic and phylogeographic relationship. Our results indicate that within South East Asia, isolates mainly cluster according to their geographic origin. We found evidence of sporadic exchange of strains between neighboring countries, but it appears that the major strain responsible for the current Chinese epidemic has not been exported. This suggests that national geographical boundaries and border controls are effective at halting the spread of rabies from China into adjacent regions. We further investigated the geographic structure of Chinese sequences and found that the current epidemic is dominated by variant strains that were likely present at low levels in previous domestic epidemics. We also identified epidemiological linkages between high incidence provinces consistent with observations based on surveillance data from human rabies cases.

First dengue haemorrhagic fever epidemic in the Americas, 1981: insights into the causative agent.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez-Roche, Rosmari; Hinojosa, Yoandri; Guzman, Maria G

2014-12-01

Historical records describe a disease in North America that clinically resembled dengue haemorrhagic fever during the latter part of the slave-trading period. However, the dengue epidemic that occurred in Cuba in 1981 was the first laboratory-confirmed and clinically diagnosed outbreak of dengue haemorrhagic fever in the Americas. At that time, the presumed source of the dengue type 2 strain isolated during this epidemic was considered controversial, partly because of the limited sequence data and partly because the origin of the virus appeared to be southern Asia. Here, we present a molecular characterisation at the whole-genome level of the original strains isolated at different time points during the epidemic. Phylogenetic trees constructed using Bayesian methods indicated that 1981 Cuban strains group within the Asian 2 genotype. In addition, the study revealed that viral evolution occurred during the epidemic - a fact that could be related to the increasing severity from month to month. Moreover, the Cuban strains exhibited particular amino acid substitutions that differentiate them from the New Guinea C prototype strain as well as from dengue type 2 strains isolated globally.

The Epidemic History of HIV-1 CRF07_BC in Hetian Prefecture and the Role of It on HIV Spreading in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jianjun; Guo, Hongxiong; Zhang, Jing; Liu, Xiaoming; Ayoupu, Aideaierli; Shen, Yuelan; Miao, Lifeng; Tang, Jihai; Lei, Yanhua; Su, Bin

2017-04-01

CRF07_BC is one of the most prevalent HIV-1 strains in China, and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region has ever been considered to be a second epidemic center after Yunnan Province in previous studies. Here we use HIV-1 pol gene sequences identified from Hetian Prefecture located in Xinjiang Autonomous Region to reconstruct the epidemic history of HIV CRF07_BC strain circulating in this region. We found that CRF07_BC is the predominant HIV-1 form in Hetian Prefecture, and the estimated tMRCA analysis shows that there is no enough evidence supporting Xinjiang Autonomous Region as a second epidemic center of spreading HIV-1. It may imply that every city may be only a point among the HIV spreading network because of the frequent migration of population in the whole country nowadays.

Distribution of sasX, pvl, and qacA/B genes in epidemic methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus strains isolated from East China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kong H

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Haishen Kong,1,2 Lingmei Fang,3 Rujin Jiang,4 Jixiang Tong2 1State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; 2Key Laboratory of Clinical In Vitro Diagnostic Techniques of Zhejiang Province, Department of Laboratory Medicine, First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; 3Clinical Laboratory, Chunan First People’s Hospital, Zhejiang Province People’s Hospital Chunan Branch, Hangzhou, China; 4Clinical Laboratory, Yuhang Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Hangzhou, China Background: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA is a major nosocomial pathogen. Various virulence and antiseptic-resistant factors increase the pathogenicity of MRSA strains and allow for increased infection rates.Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence and distribution of virulence-associated and antiseptic-resistant genes from epidemic MRSA strains isolated from East China.Methods: A newly designed multiplex PCR assay was used to assess whether the virulence-associated genes sasX and pvl and the chlorhexidine tolerance gene qacA/B were present in 189 clinical isolates of MRSA. Multilocus sequence typing (MLST and Staphylococcal protein A (spa typing of these isolates were also performed. The frequency of these genes in isolates with epidemic sequence types (STs was investigated. Results: Twenty STs and 36 spa types with five epidemic clones (ST5-t311, ST59-t437, ST5-t002, ST239-t030, and ST239-t037 were identified. The prevalence of sasX, pvl, and qacA/B in all isolates was 5.8%, 10.1%, and 20.1%, respectively. The prevalences of these genes in isolates with ST5, ST59, ST239, and other ST genetic backgrounds were all significantly different (P<0.001. Isolates that had the highest frequency of sas

Phylodynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba.

Science.gov (United States)

Delatorre, Edson; Bello, Gonzalo

2013-01-01

Previous studies have shown that the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba displayed a complex molecular epidemiologic profile with circulation of several subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRF); but the evolutionary and population history of those viral variants remains unknown. HIV-1 pol sequences of the most prevalent Cuban lineages (subtypes B, C and G, CRF18_cpx, CRF19_cpx, and CRFs20/23/24_BG) isolated between 1999 and 2011 were analyzed. Maximum-likelihood analyses revealed multiple introductions of subtype B (n≥66), subtype C (n≥10), subtype G (n≥8) and CRF18_cpx (n≥2) viruses in Cuba. The bulk of HIV-1 infections in this country, however, was caused by dissemination of a few founder strains probably introduced from North America/Europe (clades B(CU-I) and B(CU-II)), east Africa (clade C(CU-I)) and central Africa (clades G(CU), CRF18(CU) and CRF19(CU)), or locally generated (clades CRFs20/23/24_BG). Bayesian-coalescent analyses show that the major HIV-1 founder strains were introduced into Cuba during 1985-1995; whereas the CRFs_BG strains emerged in the second half of the 1990s. Most HIV-1 Cuban clades appear to have experienced an initial period of fast exponential spread during the 1990s and early 2000s, followed by a more recent decline in growth rate. The median initial growth rate of HIV-1 Cuban clades ranged from 0.4 year⁻¹ to 1.6 year⁻¹. Thus, the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba has been a result of the successful introduction of a few viral strains that began to circulate at a rather late time of the AIDS pandemic, but then were rapidly disseminated through local transmission networks.

Nosocomial epidemic of Serratia marcescens septicemia ascribed to contaminated blood transfusion bags

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heltberg, Ole; Skov, F; Gerner-Smidt, P

1993-01-01

isolates was performed. For comparison, a strain from the production plant and eight other, unrelated bacteremia isolates were examined. In addition, a retrospective national survey was carried out. S. marcescens was cultured from 11 (0.73%) of 1515 blood units, and an additional (third) bacteremic patient...... was identified. The clinical isolates from three patients, the three units of blood transfused, and the plant-derived strain shared a unique ribotype. The incident is interpreted as a sporadic, bacterial contamination of blood bags with the S. marcescens epidemic strain, occurring during the manufacturing...... or packaging. A similar incident has not previously been reported. Attention is drawn to the possibility of significant contamination during the complex production of multiple-bag blood collection systems. Guidelines for improved registration and handling of transfusion complications in wards are suggested...

Heightened vulnerability to MDR-TB epidemics after controlling drug-susceptible TB.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason D Bishai

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Prior infection with one strain TB has been linked with diminished likelihood of re-infection by a new strain. This paper attempts to determine the role of declining prevalence of drug-susceptible TB in enabling future epidemics of MDR-TB.A computer simulation of MDR-TB epidemics was developed using an agent-based model platform programmed in NetLogo (See http://mdr.tbtools.org/. Eighty-one scenarios were created, varying levels of treatment quality, diagnostic accuracy, microbial fitness cost, and the degree of immunogenicity elicited by drug-susceptible TB. Outcome measures were the number of independent MDR-TB cases per trial and the proportion of trials resulting in MDR-TB epidemics for a 500 year period after drug therapy for TB is introduced.MDR-TB epidemics propagated more extensively after TB prevalence had fallen. At a case detection rate of 75%, improving therapeutic compliance from 50% to 75% can reduce the probability of an epidemic from 45% to 15%. Paradoxically, improving the case-detection rate from 50% to 75% when compliance with DOT is constant at 75% increases the probability of MDR-TB epidemics from 3% to 45%.The ability of MDR-TB to spread depends on the prevalence of drug-susceptible TB. Immunologic protection conferred by exposure to drug-susceptible TB can be a crucial factor that prevents MDR-TB epidemics when TB treatment is poor. Any single population that successfully reduces its burden of drug-susceptible TB will have reduced herd immunity to externally or internally introduced strains of MDR-TB and can experience heightened vulnerability to an epidemic. Since countries with good TB control may be more vulnerable, their self interest dictates greater promotion of case detection and DOTS implementation in countries with poor control to control their risk of MDR-TB.

Cell culture isolation and sequence analysis of genetically diverse US porcine epidemic diarrhea virus strains including a novel strain with a large deletion in the spike gene.

Science.gov (United States)

Oka, Tomoichiro; Saif, Linda J; Marthaler, Douglas; Esseili, Malak A; Meulia, Tea; Lin, Chun-Ming; Vlasova, Anastasia N; Jung, Kwonil; Zhang, Yan; Wang, Qiuhong

2014-10-10

The highly contagious and deadly porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) first appeared in the US in April 2013. Since then the virus has spread rapidly nationwide and to Canada and Mexico causing high mortality among nursing piglets and significant economic losses. Currently there are no efficacious preventive measures or therapeutic tools to control PEDV in the US. The isolation of PEDV in cell culture is the first step toward the development of an attenuated vaccine, to study the biology of PEDV and to develop in vitro PEDV immunoassays, inactivation assays and screen for PEDV antivirals. In this study, nine of 88 US PEDV strains were isolated successfully on Vero cells with supplemental trypsin and subjected to genomic sequence analysis. They differed genetically mainly in the N-terminal S protein region as follows: (1) strains (n=7) similar to the highly virulent US PEDV strains; (2) one similar to the reportedly US S INDEL PEDV strain; and (3) one novel strain most closely related to highly virulent US PEDV strains, but with a large (197aa) deletion in the S protein. Representative strains of these three genetic groups were passaged serially and grew to titers of ∼5-6log10 plaque forming units/mL. To our knowledge, this is the first report of the isolation in cell culture of an S INDEL PEDV strain and a PEDV strain with a large (197aa) deletion in the S protein. We also designed primer sets to detect these genetically diverse US PEDV strains. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Understanding Ebola: the 2014 epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaner, Jolie; Schaack, Sarah

2016-09-13

Near the end of 2013, an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) began in Guinea, subsequently spreading to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. As this epidemic grew, important public health questions emerged about how and why this outbreak was so different from previous episodes. This review provides a synthetic synopsis of the 2014-15 outbreak, with the aim of understanding its unprecedented spread. We present a summary of the history of previous epidemics, describe the structure and genetics of the ebolavirus, and review our current understanding of viral vectors and the latest treatment practices. We conclude with an analysis of the public health challenges epidemic responders faced and some of the lessons that could be applied to future outbreaks of Ebola or other viruses.

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus infection: Etiology, epidemiology, pathogenesis and immunoprophylaxis.

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Kwonil; Saif, Linda J

2015-05-01

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), a member of the genera Alphacoronavirus in the family Coronaviridae, causes acute diarrhea/vomiting, dehydration and high mortality in seronegative neonatal piglets. For the last three decades, PEDV infection has resulted in significant economic losses in the European and Asian pig industries, but in 2013-2014 the disease was also reported in the US, Canada and Mexico. The PED epidemic in the US, from April 2013 to the present, has led to the loss of more than 10% of the US pig population. The disappearance and re-emergence of epidemic PED indicates that the virus is able to escape from current vaccination protocols, biosecurity and control systems. Endemic PED is a significant problem, which is exacerbated by the emergence (or potential importation) of multiple PEDV variants. Epidemic PEDV strains spread rapidly and cause a high number of pig deaths. These strains are highly enteropathogenic and acutely infect villous epithelial cells of the entire small and large intestines although the jejunum and ileum are the primary sites. PEDV infections cause acute, severe atrophic enteritis accompanied by viremia that leads to profound diarrhea and vomiting, followed by extensive dehydration, which is the major cause of death in nursing piglets. A comprehensive understanding of the pathogenic characteristics of epidemic or endemic PEDV strains is needed to prevent and control the disease in affected regions and to develop an effective vaccine. This review focuses on the etiology, epidemiology, disease mechanisms and pathogenesis as well as immunoprophylaxis against PEDV infection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Virus epidemics can lead to a population-wide spread of intragenomic parasites in a previously parasite-free asexual population.

Science.gov (United States)

Jalasvuori, Matti; Lehtonen, Jussi

2014-03-01

Sexual reproduction is problematic to explain due to its costs, most notably the twofold cost of sex. Yet, sex has been suggested to be favourable in the presence of proliferating intragenomic parasites given that sexual recombination provides a mechanism to confine the accumulation of deleterious mutations. Kraaijeveld et al. compared recently the accumulation of transposons in sexually and asexually reproducing lines of the same species, the parasitoid wasp Leptopilina clavipes. They discovered that within asexually reproducing wasps, the number of gypsy-like retrotransposons was increased fourfold, whereas other retrotransposons were not. Interestingly, gypsy-like retrotransposons are closely related to retroviruses. Endogenous retroviruses are retroviruses that have integrated to the germ line cells and are inherited thereafter vertically. They can also replicate within the genome similarly to retrotransposons as well as form virus particles and infect previously uninfected cells. This highlights the possibility that endogenous retroviruses could play a role in the evolution of sexual reproduction. Here, we show with an individual-based computational model that a virus epidemic within a previously parasite-free asexual population may establish a new intragenomic parasite to the population. Moreover and in contrast to other transposons, the possibility of endogenous viruses to maintain a virus epidemic and simultaneously provide resistance to individuals carrying active endogenous viruses selects for the presence of active intragenomic parasites in the population despite their deleterious effects. Our results suggest that the viral nature of certain intragenomic parasites should be taken into account when sex and its benefits are being considered. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Slow Epidemic of Lymphogranuloma Venereum L2b Strain

Science.gov (United States)

Spaargaren, Joke; Schachter, Julius; Moncada, Jeanne; de Vries, Henry J.C.; Fennema, Han S.A.; Peña, A. Salvador; Coutinho, Roel A.

2005-01-01

We traced the Chlamydia trachomatis L2b variant in Amsterdam and San Francisco. All recent lymphogranuloma venereum cases in Amsterdam were caused by the L2b variant. This variant was also present in the 1980s in San Francisco. Thus, the current "outbreak" is most likely a slowly evolving epidemic. PMID:16318741

Full-length genome sequences of porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus strain CV777; Use of NGS to analyse genomic and sub-genomic RNAs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Thomas Bruun; Boniotti, Maria Beatrice; Papetti, Alice

2018-01-01

Porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus, strain CV777, was initially characterized in 1978 as the causative agent of a disease first identified in the UK in 1971. This coronavirus has been widely distributed among laboratories and has been passaged both within pigs and in cell culture. To determine...... the variability between different stocks of the PEDV strain CV777, sequencing of the full-length genome (ca. 28kb) has been performed in 6 different laboratories, using different protocols. Not surprisingly, each of the different full genome sequences were distinct from each other and from the reference sequence...... the analysis of sub-genomic mRNAs from infected cells. It is clearly important to know the features of the specific sample of CV777 being used for experimental studies....

Epidemic Spread of Symbiotic and Non-Symbiotic Bradyrhizobium Genotypes Across California.

Science.gov (United States)

Hollowell, A C; Regus, J U; Gano, K A; Bantay, R; Centeno, D; Pham, J; Lyu, J Y; Moore, D; Bernardo, A; Lopez, G; Patil, A; Patel, S; Lii, Y; Sachs, J L

2016-04-01

The patterns and drivers of bacterial strain dominance remain poorly understood in natural populations. Here, we cultured 1292 Bradyrhizobium isolates from symbiotic root nodules and the soil root interface of the host plant Acmispon strigosus across a >840-km transect in California. To investigate epidemiology and the potential role of accessory loci as epidemic drivers, isolates were genotyped at two chromosomal loci and were assayed for presence or absence of accessory "symbiosis island" loci that encode capacity to form nodules on hosts. We found that Bradyrhizobium populations were very diverse but dominated by few haplotypes-with a single "epidemic" haplotype constituting nearly 30 % of collected isolates and spreading nearly statewide. In many Bradyrhizobium lineages, we inferred presence and absence of the symbiosis island suggesting recurrent evolutionary gain and or loss of symbiotic capacity. We did not find statistical phylogenetic evidence that the symbiosis island acquisition promotes strain dominance and both symbiotic and non-symbiotic strains exhibited population dominance and spatial spread. Our dataset reveals that a strikingly few Bradyrhizobium genotypes can rapidly spread to dominate a landscape and suggests that these epidemics are not driven by the acquisition of accessory loci as occurs in key human pathogens.

[The cholera epidemic in Latin America].

Science.gov (United States)

Olsvik, O

1992-05-30

An outbreak of cholera started in Peru in January 1991 and spread through most Latin American countries within a year. This was the first known epidemic of cholera in America for more than a century. In 1991, 321,334 persons were reported to have cholera in Peru, 119,063 were hospitalized, and 2,906 died. Other countries like Ecuador, Colombia, Guatemala, Brazil, Mexico, Bolivia, Chile, El Salvador, Venezuela and Honduras were also affected, but these countries combined accounted for only 20% of the cases registered in Peru. In April 1992, all Latin American countries except Uruguay, Paraguay and French Guyana have reported cholera. The mortality rate for the epidemic in Latin America was only 1%, mainly owing to good oral rehydration treatment provided by Local health services and the Pan American Health Organization. The causative organism was Vibrio cholerae, serogroup O1, serotype Inaba (and Ogawa) of the El Tor biotype. Genetic characterization shows this strain to be unique, and the designation is reserved for the Latin American strain, distinguishing it from the other El Tor isolates from the 7th pandemic.

Pathogenesis comparison between the United States porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus prototype and S-INDEL-variant strains in conventional neonatal piglets.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Qi; Gauger, Phillip C; Stafne, Molly R; Thomas, Joseph T; Madson, Darin M; Huang, Haiyan; Zheng, Ying; Li, Ganwu; Zhang, Jianqiang

2016-05-01

At least two genetically different porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDV) strains have been identified in the USA: US PEDV prototype and S-INDEL-variant strains. The objective of this study was to compare the pathogenicity differences of the US PEDV prototype and S-INDEL-variant strains in conventional neonatal piglets under experimental infections. Fifty PEDV-negative 5-day-old pigs were divided into five groups of ten pigs each and were inoculated orogastrically with three US PEDV prototype isolates (IN19338/2013, NC35140/2013 and NC49469/2013), an S-INDEL-variant isolate (IL20697/2014), and virus-negative culture medium, respectively, with virus titres of 104 TCID50 ml- 1, 10 ml per pig. All three PEDV prototype isolates tested in this study, regardless of their phylogenetic clades, had similar pathogenicity and caused severe enteric disease in 5-day-old pigs as evidenced by clinical signs, faecal virus shedding, and gross and histopathological lesions. Compared with pigs inoculated with the three US PEDV prototype isolates, pigs inoculated with the S-INDEL-variant isolate had significantly diminished clinical signs, virus shedding in faeces, gross lesions in small intestines, caeca and colons, histopathological lesions in small intestines, and immunohistochemistry staining in ileum. However, the US PEDV prototype and the S-INDEL-variant strains induced similar viraemia levels in inoculated pigs. Whole genome sequences of the PEDV prototype and S-INDEL-variant strains were determined, but the molecular basis of virulence differences between these PEDV strains remains to be elucidated using a reverse genetics approach.

Epidemic waves of cholera in the last two decades in Mozambique.

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Langa, José Paulo; Sema, Cynthia; De Deus, Nilsa; Colombo, Mauro Maria; Taviani, Elisa

2015-07-04

Africa is increasingly affected by cholera. In Mozambique, cholera appeared in the early 1970s when the seventh pandemic entered Africa from the Indian subcontinent. In the following decades, several epidemics were registered in the country, the 1997-1999 epidemic being the most extended. Since then, Mozambique has been considered an endemic area for cholera, characterized by yearly outbreaks occurring with a seasonal pattern. At least three pandemic variants are thought to have originated in the Indian subcontinent and spread worldwide at different times. To understand the epidemiology of cholera in Mozambique, whether the disease re-emerges periodically or is imported by different routes of transmission, we investigated clinical V. cholerae O1 isolated during 1997-1999 and 2012-2014 epidemics. By detecting and characterizing seven genetic elements, the mobilome profile of each isolate was obtained. By comparing it to known seventh pandemic reference strains, it was possible to discern among different V. cholerae O1 variants active in the country. During 1997-1999, epidemic strains showed two different genetic profiles, both related to a pandemic clone that originated from India and was reported in other African countries in the 1990s. Isolates from 2012-2014 outbreaks showed a genetic background related to the pandemic strains currently active as the prevalent causative agent of cholera worldwide. Despite cholera being endemic in Mozambique, the epidemiology of the disease in the past 20 years has been strongly influenced by the cholera seventh pandemic waves that originated in the Indian subcontinent.

Diphtheria in the Republic of Georgia: Use of Molecular Typing Techniques for Characterization of Corynebacterium diphtheriae Strains

Science.gov (United States)

Sulakvelidze, Alexander; Kekelidze, Merab; Gomelauri, Tsaro; Deng, Yingkang; Khetsuriani, Nino; Kobaidze, Ketino; De Zoysa, Aruni; Efstratiou, Androulla; Morris, J. Glenn; Imnadze, Paata

1999-01-01

Sixty-six Corynebacterium diphtheriae strains (62 of the gravis biotype and 4 of the mitis biotype) isolated during the Georgian diphtheria epidemic of 1993 to 1998 and 13 non-Georgian C. diphtheriae strains (10 Russian and 3 reference isolates) were characterized by (i) biotyping, (ii) toxigenicity testing with the Elek assay and PCR, (iii) the randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique, and (iv) pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Fifteen selected strains were ribotyped. Six RAPD types and 15 PFGE patterns were identified among all strains examined, and 12 ribotypes were found among the 15 strains that were ribotyped. The Georgian epidemic apparently was caused by one major clonal group of C. diphtheriae (PFGE type A, ribotype R1), which was identical to the predominant epidemic strain(s) isolated during the concurrent diphtheria epidemic in Russia. A dendrogram based on the PFGE patterns revealed profound differences between the minor (nonpredominant) epidemic strains found in Georgia and Russia. The methodologies for RAPD typing, ribotyping, and PFGE typing of C. diphtheriae strains were improved to enable rapid and convenient molecular typing of the strains. The RAPD technique was adequate for biotype differentiation; however, PFGE and ribotyping were better (and equal to each other) at discriminating between epidemiologically related and unrelated isolates. PMID:10488190

Toward a generalized theory of epidemic awareness in social networks

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Wu, Qingchu; Zhu, Wenfang

We discuss the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with local awareness in networks. Individual awareness to the infectious disease is characterized by a general function of epidemic information in its neighborhood. We build a high-accuracy approximate equation governing the spreading dynamics and derive an approximate epidemic threshold above which the epidemic spreads over the whole network. Our results extend the previous work and show that the epidemic threshold is dependent on the awareness function in terms of one infectious neighbor. Interestingly, when a pow-law awareness function is chosen, the epidemic threshold can emerge in infinite networks.

OmpU as a biomarker for rapid discrimination between toxigenic and epidemic Vibrio cholerae O1/O139 and non-epidemic Vibrio cholerae in a modified MALDI-TOF MS assay

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Paauw, A.; Trip, H.; Niemcewicz, M.; Sellek, R.; Heng, J.M.E.; Mars-Groenendijk, R.H.; Jong, A.L. de; Majchrzykiewicz-Koehorst, J.A.; Olsen, J.S.; Tsivtsivadze, E.

2014-01-01

Background Cholera is an acute diarrheal disease caused by Vibrio cholerae. Outbreaks are caused by a genetically homogenous group of strains from serogroup O1 or O139 that are able to produce the cholera toxin. Rapid detection and identification of these epidemic strains is essential for an

Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus among Farmed Pigs, Ukraine.

Science.gov (United States)

Dastjerdi, Akbar; Carr, John; Ellis, Richard J; Steinbach, Falko; Williamson, Susanna

2015-12-01

An outbreak of porcine epidemic diarrhea occurred in the summer of 2014 in Ukraine, severely affecting piglets <10 days of age; the mortality rate approached 100%. Full genome sequencing showed the virus to be closely related to strains reported from North America, showing a sequence identity of up to 99.8%.

The impact of multiple information on coupled awareness-epidemic dynamics in multiplex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Yaohui; Yan, Zhijun

2018-02-01

Growing interest has emerged in the study of the interplay between awareness and epidemics in multiplex networks. However, previous studies on this issue usually assume that all aware individuals take the same level of precautions, ignoring individual heterogeneity. In this paper, we investigate the coupled awareness-epidemic dynamics in multiplex networks considering individual heterogeneity. Here, the precaution levels are heterogeneous and depend on three types of information: contact information and local and global prevalence information. The results show that contact-based precautions can decrease the epidemic prevalence and augment the epidemic threshold, but prevalence-based precautions, regardless of local or global information, can only decrease the epidemic prevalence. Moreover, unlike previous studies in single-layer networks, we do not find a greater impact of local prevalence information on the epidemic prevalence compared to global prevalence information. In addition, we find that the altruistic behaviors of infected individuals can effectively suppress epidemic spreading, especially when the level of contact-based precaution is high.

Can influenza epidemics be prevented by voluntary vaccination?

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Raffaele Vardavas

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Previous modeling studies have identified the vaccination coverage level necessary for preventing influenza epidemics, but have not shown whether this critical coverage can be reached. Here we use computational modeling to determine, for the first time, whether the critical coverage for influenza can be achieved by voluntary vaccination. We construct a novel individual-level model of human cognition and behavior; individuals are characterized by two biological attributes (memory and adaptability that they use when making vaccination decisions. We couple this model with a population-level model of influenza that includes vaccination dynamics. The coupled models allow individual-level decisions to influence influenza epidemiology and, conversely, influenza epidemiology to influence individual-level decisions. By including the effects of adaptive decision-making within an epidemic model, we can reproduce two essential characteristics of influenza epidemiology: annual variation in epidemic severity and sporadic occurrence of severe epidemics. We suggest that individual-level adaptive decision-making may be an important (previously overlooked causal factor in driving influenza epidemiology. We find that severe epidemics cannot be prevented unless vaccination programs offer incentives. Frequency of severe epidemics could be reduced if programs provide, as an incentive to be vaccinated, several years of free vaccines to individuals who pay for one year of vaccination. Magnitude of epidemic amelioration will be determined by the number of years of free vaccination, an individuals' adaptability in decision-making, and their memory. This type of incentive program could control epidemics if individuals are very adaptable and have long-term memories. However, incentive-based programs that provide free vaccination for families could increase the frequency of severe epidemics. We conclude that incentive-based vaccination programs are necessary to control

Susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics in random networks with population awareness

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qingchu; Chen, Shufang

2017-10-01

The influence of epidemic information-based awareness on the spread of infectious diseases on networks cannot be ignored. Within the effective degree modeling framework, we discuss the susceptible-infected-recovered model in complex networks with general awareness and general degree distribution. By performing the linear stability analysis, the conditions of epidemic outbreak can be deduced and the results of the previous research can be further expanded. Results show that the local awareness can suppress significantly the epidemic spreading on complex networks via raising the epidemic threshold and such effects are closely related to the formulation of awareness functions. In addition, our results suggest that the recovered information-based awareness has no effect on the critical condition of epidemic outbreak.

The genome of Burkholderia cenocepacia J2315, an epidemic pathogen of cystic fibrosis patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holden, Matthew T G; Seth-Smith, Helena M B; Crossman, Lisa C

2009-01-01

; the resulting chronic infections are associated with severe declines in lung function and increased mortality rates. B. cenocepacia strain J2315 was isolated from a CF patient and is a member of the epidemic ET12 lineage that originated in Canada or the United Kingdom and spread to Europe. The 8.06-Mb genome...... be pathogenic to both plants and man, J2315 is representative of a lineage of B. cenocepacia rarely isolated from the environment and which spreads between CF patients. Comparative analysis revealed that ca. 21% of the genome is unique in comparison to other strains of B. cenocepacia, highlighting the genomic...... success as an epidemic CF pathogen....

HIV-1 epidemic in Warao Amerindians from Venezuela: spatial phylodynamics and epidemiological patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Villalba, Julian A; Bello, Gonzalo; Maes, Mailis; Sulbaran, Yoneira F; Garzaro, Domingo; Loureiro, Carmen L; Rangel, Hector R; de Waard, Jacobus H; Pujol, Flor H

2013-07-17

We previously reported HIV-1 infection in Warao Amerindians from Venezuela. The aim of this study was to evaluate the extent and the dynamic of HIV-1 dissemination in eight Warao communities. HIV-1 infection was evaluated in 576 Warao Amerindians from the Orinoco Delta. Partial HIV-1 pol sequences were analyzed to reconstruct the spatiotemporal and demographic dynamics of the epidemic. HIV-1 antibodies were present in 9.55% of Warao Amerindians, ranging from 0 to 22%. A significantly higher prevalence was found in men (15.6%) compared with women (2.6%), reaching up to 35% in men from one community. All but one isolates were classified as subtype B. Warao's HIV-1 subtype-B epidemic resulted from a single viral introduction at around the early 2000s. After an initial phase of slow growth, the subtype B started to spread at a fast rate (0.8/year) following two major routes of migration within the communities. A dramatic high prevalence was documented in almost all the communities of Warao Amerindians from the Orinoco Delta tested for HIV-1 infection. This epidemic resulted from the dissemination of a single HIV-1 subtype B founder strain introduced about 10 years ago and its size is probably doubling every year, creating a situation that can be devastating for this vulnerable Amerindian group.

Zika virus infection in Vietnam: current epidemic, strain origin, spreading risk, and perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Dinh-Toi; Ngoc, Vo Truong Nhu; Tao, Yang

2017-11-01

Zika virus infection and its associated microcephaly have being receiving global concern. This infection has spread widely since the first outbreak was recorded in Africa in 1952. Now, it has been reported in over 70 countries on five continents including Africa, North and South America, Asia, and Europe. Vietnam is one of the most recent countries which had cases of Zika virus infection at the end of 2016. This country has also reported the first case of a microcephaly-born baby which was probably linked to Zika virus infection. However, information on the Zika virus epidemic in Vietnam is still limited. This brief report intends to update the current Zika virus epidemic, and to discuss challenges and perspectives in controlling this infection in Vietnam.

Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

2013-01-01

Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover...

Genetic relatedness of ciprofloxacin-resistant Shigella dysenteriae type 1 strains isolated in south Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Talukder, Kaisar A; Khajanchi, Bijay K; Islam, M Aminul; Dutta, Dilip K; Islam, Zhahirul; Safa, Ashrafus; Khan, G Y; Alam, Khorshed; Hossain, M A; Malla, Sarala; Niyogi, S K; Rahman, Mustafizur; Watanabe, Haruo; Nair, G Balakrish; Sack, David A

2004-10-01

The aim of the present study was to determine the clonal relationships of ciprofloxacin-resistant Shigella dysenteriae type 1 strains isolated from south Asia, and S. dysenteriae 1 strains associated with epidemics in 1978, 1984 and 1994. The antimicrobial susceptibilities were examined by NCCLS methods. Molecular epidemiological characterization was performed by plasmid profiling, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and mutation analysis of the quinolone resistance-determining region (QRDR) of gyrA by sequencing. Plasmid patterns of the current ciprofloxacin-resistant strains from India, Nepal and Bangladesh were very similar to those of the 1978, 1984 and 1994 epidemic isolates of S. dysenteriae 1, except for the presence of a new plasmid of approximately 2.6 MDa, which was found in one recent ciprofloxacin-resistant strain isolated in Bangladesh. PFGE analysis showed that the ciprofloxacin-resistant strains isolated in Bangladesh, India and Nepal belonged to a PFGE type (type A), which was possibly related to that of the 1984 and 1994 clone of S. dysenteriae 1, but different from 1978 epidemic strains. The current ciprofloxacin-resistant strains belong to five subtypes (A3-A7), all of which were found in India, but in Bangladesh and Nepal, only A3 existed. Mutation analysis of the QRDR of gyrA revealed that amino acid substitutions at positions 83 and 87 of ciprofloxacin-resistant strains isolated in Bangladesh were similar to those of the strains isolated in Nepal, but different (at position 87) from ciprofloxacin-resistant strains isolated in India. PFGE and mutation analysis of gyrA showed differences between the current ciprofloxacin-resistant S. dysenteriae 1 strains isolated in south Asia and those associated with epidemics in 1978, 1984 and 1994.

Flexible Modeling of Epidemics with an Empirical Bayes Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Brooks, Logan C.; Farrow, David C.; Hyun, Sangwon; Tibshirani, Ryan J.; Rosenfeld, Roni

2015-01-01

Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic’s behavior, policy makers can design and implement more effective countermeasures. This past year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted the “Predict the Influenza Season Challenge”, with the task of predicting key epidemiological measures for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season with the help of digital surveillance data. We developed a framework for in-season forecasts of epidemics using a semiparametric Empirical Bayes framework, and applied it to predict the weekly percentage of outpatient doctors visits for influenza-like illness, and the season onset, duration, peak time, and peak height, with and without using Google Flu Trends data. Previous work on epidemic modeling has focused on developing mechanistic models of disease behavior and applying time series tools to explain historical data. However, tailoring these models to certain types of surveillance data can be challenging, and overly complex models with many parameters can compromise forecasting ability. Our approach instead produces possibilities for the epidemic curve of the season of interest using modified versions of data from previous seasons, allowing for reasonable variations in the timing, pace, and intensity of the seasonal epidemics, as well as noise in observations. Since the framework does not make strict domain-specific assumptions, it can easily be applied to some other diseases with seasonal epidemics. This method produces a complete posterior distribution over epidemic curves, rather than, for example, solely point predictions of forecasting targets. We report prospective influenza-like-illness forecasts made for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season, and compare the framework’s cross-validated prediction error on historical data to

A universal long-term flu vaccine may not prevent severe epidemics

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Blower Sally

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Recently, the promise of a new universal long-term flu vaccine has become more tangible than ever before. Such a vaccine would protect against very many seasonal and pandemic flu strains for many years, making annual vaccination unnecessary. However, due to complacency behavior, it remains unclear whether the introduction of such vaccines would maintain high and stable levels of vaccination coverage year after year. Findings To predict the impact of universal long-term flu vaccines on influenza epidemics we developed a mathematical model that linked human cognition and memory with the transmission dynamics of influenza. Our modeling shows that universal vaccines that provide short-term protection are likely to result in small frequent epidemics, whereas universal vaccines that provide long-term protection are likely to result in severe infrequent epidemics. Conclusions Influenza vaccines that provide short-term protection maintain risk awareness regarding influenza in the population and result in stable vaccination coverage. Vaccines that provide long-term protection could lead to substantial drops in vaccination coverage and should therefore include an annual epidemic risk awareness programs in order to minimize the risk of severe epidemics.

Emergence of recombinant forms in geographic regions with co-circulating HIV subtypes in the dynamic HIV-1 epidemic

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Ming [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Letiner, Thomas K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Korber, Bette T [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Foley, Brian [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2009-01-01

We have reexamined the subtype designations of {approx}10,000 subtype A, B, C, G, and AG, BC, BF recombinant sequences, and compared the results of the new analysis with their published designations. Intersubtype recombinants dominate HIV epidemics in three different geographical regions. The circulating recombinant from (CRF) CRF02-AG, common in West Central Africa, appears to result from a recombination event that occurred early in the divergence between subtypes A and G, although additional more recent recombination events may have contributed to the breakpoint pattern in this recombinant lineage as well. The Chinese recombinant epidemic strains CRF07 and CRF08, in contrast, result from recent recombinations between more contemporary strains. Nevertheless, CRF07 and CRF08 contributed to many subsequent recombination events. The BF recombinant epidemics in two HIV-1 epicenters in South America are not independent and BF epidemics in South America have an unusually high fraction of unique recombinant forms (URFs) that have each been found only once and carry distinctive breakpoints. Taken together, these analyses reveal a complex and dynamic picture of the current HIV-1 epidemic, and suggest a means of grouping and tracking relationships between viruses through preservation of shared breakpints.

Cross-protective efficacy of engineering serotype A foot-and-mouth disease virus vaccine against the two pandemic strains in swine.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Haixue; Lian, Kaiqi; Yang, Fan; Jin, Ye; Zhu, Zixiang; Guo, Jianhong; Cao, Weijun; Liu, Huanan; He, Jijun; Zhang, Keshan; Li, Dan; Liu, Xiangtao

2015-10-26

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious vesicular disease that affects domestic and wild cloven-hoofed animals worldwide. Recently, a series of outbreaks of type A FMDV occurred in Southeast Asian countries, China, the Russia Federation, Mongolia, Kazakhstan and South Korea. The FMD virus (A/GDMM/CHA/2013) from China's Guangdong province (2013) is representative of those responsible for the latest epidemic, and has low amino acid identity (93.9%) in VP1 protein with the epidemic strain A/WH/CHA/09 from Wuhan, China in 2009. Both of isolates belong to the Sea-97 genotype of ASIA topotype. Therefore, the application of a new vaccine strain with cross-protective efficacy is of fundamental importance to control the spread of the two described pandemic strains. A chimeric strain rA/P1-FMDV constructed by our lab previously through replacing the P1 gene in the vaccine strain O/CHA/99 with that from the epidemic stain A/WH/CHA/09, has been demonstrated to exhibit good growth characteristics in culture, and the rA/P1-FMDV inactivated vaccine can provide protection against epidemic strain A/WH/CHA/09 in cattle. However, it is still unclear whether the vaccine produces efficient protection against the new pandemic strain (A/GDMM/CHA/2013). Here, vaccine matching and pig 50% protective dose (PD50) tests were performed to assess the vaccine potency. The vaccine matching test showed cross-reactivity of sera from full dose vaccine vaccinated pigs with A/WH/CHA/09 and A/GDMM/CHA/2013 isolates, with average r1 values of 0.94±0.12 and 0.68±0.06 (r1≥0.3), which indicates that the rA/P1-FMDV vaccine is likely to confer good cross-protection against the two isolates. When challenged with two pandemic isolates A/WH/CHA/09 and A/GDMM/CHA/2013 strain, the vaccine achieved 12.51 PD50 and 10.05 PD50 per dose (2.8μg), respectively. The results indicated that the rA/P1-FMDV inactivated vaccine could protect pigs against both A/WH/CHA/09 and A/GDMM/CHA/2013 pandemic isolates

Influenza in Poland in 2013 and 2013/2014 epidemic season

Science.gov (United States)

Kondratiuk, Katarzyna; Czarkowski, Mirosław P; Hallmann-Szelińska, Ewelina; Staszewska, Ewa; Bednarska, Karolina; Cielebąk, Ewa; Brydak, Lidia B

2016-01-01

Analysis of epidemiological situation of influenza in Poland in 2013 and 2013/14 epidemic season in reference to previous years and seasons. Analysis was based on: 1) data collected within influenza routine surveillance system in Poland, including data published in annual bulletins “Infectious diseases and poisonings in Poland” as well as unpublished data gathered in the Department of Epidemiology of the NIPH-NIH; 2) data collected within influenza system - Sentinel, and beyond this system, concerning results of virological tests carried out in 2013/14 epidemic season in the Department of Influenza Research, National Influenza Center in the NIPHNIH and/or laboratories of provincial sanitary and epidemiological stations which are gathered in the National Influenza Center. Compared to 2012, the number of influenza and influenza-like cases increased more than twofold in 2013 in Poland. A total of 3 164 405 cases were reported. Incidence was 8 218.7 per 100,000 population (33 733.2 in 0-4 age group). As many as 0.45% of patients were referred to hospitals. According to the data of the Central Statistical Office, 115 deaths due to influenza were notified. Based on the data of the sanitary inspection (incomplete data), the percentage of population vaccinated against influenza was 2.4% (7.7% of persons aged more than 64 years). A total of 2 780 945 cases were registered in 2013/14 epidemic season. Its peak was reported in March 2014. Incidence was 7 224.0 per 100,000 population (35 172.8 in 0-4 age group). Compared to 2012/13 epidemic season, it was lower by 8.0%. Incidence rates ranged from 29 339.6 in pomorskie voivodeship to 1 306.5 in lubuskie voivodeship. Nearly a half of all cases (48.7%) were registered in children and adolescents up to 15 years. As many as 0.34% of patients were referred to hospitals (0.87% of persons aged more than 64 years). From the data of the Central Statistical Office transpires that 8 deaths due to influenza were reported in epidemic

[Hippocrates. Aphorisms and Epidemics III. Two clinical texts].

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Frøland, Anders

2015-01-01

The two Hippocratic texts, Aphorisms and Epidemics III, have not been translated into Danish previously. The Aphorisms are 412 short, pithy statements, mostly on the prognosis in relation to certain symptoms in the course of the diseases, very often febrile. The Aphorisms begin with the famous words: "Life is short, the Art long, opportunity fleeting, experiment treacherous, judgment difficult." (Transl. W H S Jones [22]). Epidemics III consists of 28 case histories, again mostly of febrile patients, but also of observations on the connection of the seasons with general morbidity and mortality. The author describes an epidemic, which in some respects resembles Thucydides' report on the plague in Athens in 430 BC. It is suggested, that observations as have been recorded in the seven Hippocratic texts on epidemic diseases are the material on which prognostic statements as those collected in the Aphorisms are founded.

Invited review: Epidemics on social networks

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M. N. Kuperman

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Since its first formulations almost a century ago, mathematical models fordisease spreading contributed to understand, evaluate and control the epidemic processes.They promoted a dramatic change in how epidemiologists thought of the propagation of infectious diseases.In the last decade, when the traditional epidemiological models seemed to be exhausted, new types of models were developed.These new models incorporated concepts from graph theory to describe and model the underlying social structure.Many of these works merely produced a more detailed extension of the previous results, but some otherstriggered a completely new paradigm in the mathematical study of epidemic processes. In this review, we will introduce the basicconcepts of epidemiology, epidemic modeling and networks, to finally provide a brief description of the mostrelevant results in the field.Received: 6 April 2013, Accepted: 3 June 2013; Edited by: G. Mindlin; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4279/PIP.050003Cite as: M N Kuperman, Papers in Physics 5, 050003 (2013

Meningococcal factor H binding proteins in epidemic strains from Africa: implications for vaccine development.

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Rolando Pajon

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Factor H binding protein (fHbp is an important antigen for vaccines against meningococcal serogroup B disease. The protein binds human factor H (fH, which enables the bacteria to resist serum bactericidal activity. Little is known about the vaccine-potential of fHbp for control of meningococcal epidemics in Africa, which typically are caused by non-group B strains.We investigated genes encoding fHbp in 106 serogroup A, W-135 and X case isolates from 17 African countries. We determined complement-mediated bactericidal activity of antisera from mice immunized with recombinant fHbp vaccines, or a prototype native outer membrane vesicle (NOMV vaccine from a serogroup B mutant strain with over-expressed fHbp. Eighty-six of the isolates (81% had one of four prevalent fHbp sequence variants, ID 4/5 (serogroup A isolates, 9 (W-135, or 74 (X in variant group 1, or ID 22/23 (W-135 in variant group 2. More than one-third of serogroup A isolates and two-thirds of W-135 isolates tested had low fHbp expression while all X isolates tested had intermediate or high expression. Antisera to the recombinant fHbp vaccines were generally bactericidal only against isolates with fHbp sequence variants that closely matched the respective vaccine ID. Low fHbp expression also contributed to resistance to anti-fHbp bactericidal activity. In contrast to the recombinant vaccines, the NOMV fHbp ID 1 vaccine elicited broad anti-fHbp bactericidal activity, and the antibodies had greater ability to inhibit binding of fH to fHbp than antibodies elicited by the control recombinant fHbp ID 1 vaccine.NOMV vaccines from mutants with increased fHbp expression elicit an antibody repertoire with greater bactericidal activity than recombinant fHbp vaccines. NOMV vaccines are promising for prevention of meningococcal disease in Africa and could be used to supplement coverage conferred by a serogroup A polysaccharide-protein conjugate vaccine recently introduced in some sub

High proportion of intestinal colonization with successful epidemic clones of ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae in a neonatal intensive care unit in Ecuador.

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Viveka Nordberg

Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Neonatal infections caused by Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL-producing bacteria are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. No data are available on neonatal colonization with ESBL-producing bacteria in Ecuador. The aim of this study was to determine the proportion of intestinal colonization with ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae, their resistance pattern and risk factors of colonization in a neonatal intensive care unit in Ecuador. METHODS: During a three month period, stool specimens were collected every two weeks from hospitalized neonates. Species identification and susceptibility testing were performed with Vitek2, epidemiologic typing with automated repetitive PCR. Associations between groups were analyzed using the Pearson X (2 test and Fisher exact test. A forward step logistic regression model identified significant predictors for colonization. RESULTS: Fifty-six percent of the neonates were colonized with ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae. Length of stay longer than 20 days and enteral feeding with a combination of breastfeeding and formula feeding were significantly associated with ESBL-colonization. The strains found were E. coli (EC, 89% and K. pneumoniae (KP, 11% and epidemiological typing divided these isolates in two major clusters. All EC and KP had bla CTX-M group 1 except for a unique EC isolate that had bla CTX-M group 9. Multi-locus sequence typing performed on the K. pneumoniae strains showed that the strains belonged to ST855 and ST897. The two detected STs belong to two different epidemic clonal complexes (CC, CC11 and CC14, which previously have been associated with dissemination of carbapenemases. None of the E. coli strains belonged to the epidemic ST 131 clone. CONCLUSIONS: More than half of the neonates were colonized with ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae where the main risk factor for colonization was length of hospital stay. Two of the isolated clones were epidemic and known

Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nekovee, Maziar [BT Research, Polaris 134, Adastral Park, Martlesham, Suffolk IP5 3RE (United Kingdom); Centre for Computational Science, University College London, 20 Gordon Street, London WC1H 0AJ (United Kingdom)

2007-06-15

A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

Science.gov (United States)

Nekovee, Maziar

2007-06-01

A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nekovee, Maziar

2007-01-01

A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet

In vitro transfer of multiple resistance observed in vivo during a Salmonella london epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Lantos, J; Marjai, E

1980-01-01

Between 1976 and 1978, waves of Salmonella london infections conveyed by raw meat and meat products were observed. The strains isolated during the epidemic were first susceptible then developed multiple antibiotic resistance. The identical antibiotic resistance patterns of the strain and their more frequent occurrence in hospital environments indicated plasmid-mediated resistance. R-plasmid transfer, minimum inhibition concentration and resistance elimination were studied in representative strains. The resistant S. london strain and transconjugants of Escherichia coli rendered resistant were compared. The results proved that multiple resistance was plasmid-mediated.

Genetic structure of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C epidemic strains in South Brazil Estrutura genética de cepas epidêmicas de Neisseria meningitidis sorogrupo C do Sul do Brasil

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Claudio Tavares Sacchi

1995-08-01

Full Text Available In the present study we report the results of an analysis, based on serotyping, multilocus enzyme electrophoresis (MEE, and ribotyping of N. meningitidis serogroup C strains isolated from patients with meningococcal disease (MD in Rio Grande do Sul (RS and Santa Catarina (SC States, Brazil, as the Center of Epidemiology Control of Ministry of Health detected an increasing of MD cases due to this serogroup in the last two years (1992-1993. We have demonstrated that the MD due to N.meningitidis serogroup C strains in RS and SC States occurring in the last 4 years were caused mainly by one clone of strains (ET 40, with isolates indistinguishable by serogroup, serotype, subtype and even by ribotyping. One small number of cases that were not due to an ET 40 strains, represent closely related clones that probably are new lineages generated from the ET 40 clone referred as ET 11A complex. We have also analyzed N.meningitidis serogroup C strains isolated in the greater São Paulo in 1976 as representative of the first post epidemic year in that region. The ribotyping method, as well as MEE, could provide useful information about the clonal characteristics of those isolates and also of strains isolated in south Brazil. The strains from 1976 have more similarity with the actual endemic than epidemic strains, by the ribotyping, sulfonamide sensitivity, and MEE results. In conclusion, serotyping with monoclonal antibodies (C:2b:P1.3, MEE (ET 11 and ET 11A complex, and ribotyping by using ClaI restriction enzyme (Rb2, were useful to characterize these epidemic strains of N.meningitidis related to the increased incidence of MD in different States of south Brazil. It is mostly probable that these N.meningitidis serogroup C strains have poor or no genetic corelation with 1971-1975 epidemic serogroup C strains. The genetic similarity of members of the ET 11 and ET 11A complex were confirmed by the ribotyping method by using three restriction endonucleases

[Algorithm of toxigenic genetically altered Vibrio cholerae El Tor biovar strain identification].

Science.gov (United States)

Smirnova, N I; Agafonov, D A; Zadnova, S P; Cherkasov, A V; Kutyrev, V V

2014-01-01

Development of an algorithm of genetically altered Vibrio cholerae biovar El Tor strai identification that ensures determination of serogroup, serovar and biovar of the studied isolate based on pheno- and genotypic properties, detection of genetically altered cholera El Tor causative agents, their differentiation by epidemic potential as well as evaluation of variability of key pathogenicity genes. Complex analysis of 28 natural V. cholerae strains was carried out by using traditional microbiological methods, PCR and fragmentary sequencing. An algorithm of toxigenic genetically altered V. cholerae biovar El Tor strain identification was developed that includes 4 stages: determination of serogroup, serovar and biovar based on phenotypic properties, confirmation of serogroup and biovar based on molecular-genetic properties determination of strains as genetically altered, differentiation of genetically altered strains by their epidemic potential and detection of ctxB and tcpA key pathogenicity gene polymorphism. The algorithm is based on the use of traditional microbiological methods, PCR and sequencing of gene fragments. The use of the developed algorithm will increase the effectiveness of detection of genetically altered variants of the cholera El Tor causative agent, their differentiation by epidemic potential and will ensure establishment of polymorphism of genes that code key pathogenicity factors for determination of origins of the strains and possible routes of introduction of the infection.

Vibrio cholerae O1 epidemic variants in Angola: a retrospective study between 1992 and 2006.

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Romy eValia

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Cholera is still a major public health concern in many African countries. In Angola, after a decade of absence, cholera reemerged in 1987, spreading throughout the country until 1996, with outbreaks recurring in a seasonal pattern. In 2006 Angola was hit by one of the most severe outbreaks of the last decade, with ca. 240,000 cases reported.We analyzed 21 clinical strains isolated between 1992 and 2006 from several provinces throughout the country: Benguela, Bengo, Luanda, Cuando Cubango and Cabinda. We used two multiplex PCR assays to investigate discriminatory mobile genetic elements (ICEs, VSP-II, GI12, GI14, GI15, K and TLC phages and we compared the profiles obtained with those of different reference V. cholerae O1 variants (prototypical, altered and hybrid, responsible for the ongoing 7th pandemic. We also tested the strains for the presence of specific VSP-II variants and for the presence of a genomic island (WASA-1, correlated with the transmission of seventh pandemic cholera from Africa to South America. Based on the presence/absence of the analyzed genetic elements, five novel profiles were detected in the epidemic strains circulating in the 1990s. The most frequent profiles, F and G, were characterized by the absence of ICEs and the three GIs tested, and the presence of genomic island WASA-1 and the WASA variant of the VSP-II island. Our results identified unexpected variability within the 1990s epidemic, showing different rearrangements in a dynamic part of the genome not present in the prototypical V. cholerae O1 N16961. Moreover the 2006 strains differed from the current pandemic V. cholerae O1 strain. Taken together, our results highlight the role of horizontal gene transfer in diversifying the genetic background of V. cholerae within a single epidemic.

Vibrio cholerae O1 epidemic variants in Angola: a retrospective study between 1992 and 2006.

Science.gov (United States)

Valia, Romy; Taviani, Elisa; Spagnoletti, Matteo; Ceccarelli, Daniela; Cappuccinelli, Piero; Colombo, Mauro M

2013-01-01

Cholera is still a major public health concern in many African countries. In Angola, after a decade of absence, cholera reemerged in 1987, spreading throughout the country until 1996, with outbreaks recurring in a seasonal pattern. In 2006 Angola was hit by one of the most severe outbreaks of the last decade, with ca. 240,000 cases reported. We analyzed 21 clinical strains isolated between 1992 and 2006 from several provinces throughout the country: Benguela, Bengo, Luanda, Cuando Cubango, and Cabinda. We used two multiplex PCR assays to investigate discriminatory mobile genetic elements (MGE) [Integrative Conjugative Elements (ICEs), VSP-II, GI12, GI14, GI15, K, and TLC phages] and we compared the profiles obtained with those of different reference V. cholerae O1 variants (prototypical, altered, and hybrid), responsible for the ongoing 7th pandemic. We also tested the strains for the presence of specific VSP-II variants and for the presence of a genomic island (GI) (WASA-1), correlated with the transmission of seventh pandemic cholera from Africa to South America. Based on the presence/absence of the analyzed genetic elements, five novel profiles were detected in the epidemic strains circulating in the 1990s. The most frequent profiles, F and G, were characterized by the absence of ICEs and the three GIs tested, and the presence of GI WASA-1 and the WASA variant of the VSP-II island. Our results identified unexpected variability within the 1990s epidemic, showing different rearrangements in a dynamic part of the genome not present in the prototypical V. cholerae O1 N16961. Moreover the 2006 strains differed from the current pandemic V. cholerae O1 strain. Taken together, our results highlight the role of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) in diversifying the genetic background of V. cholerae within a single epidemic.

HIV-1 CRF_BC recombinants infection in China: molecular epidemic and characterizations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ouyang, Yabo; Shao, Yiming; Ma, Liying

2012-03-01

CRF_BC recombinant strains were first identified in China and are one of the most prevalent and characteristically unique HIV-1 subtypes across China. Here we aim to review the published data about HIV-1 CRF_BC recombinant strains epidemic in China and to characterize the genetics, biology and drug resistance of this virus. This study may help to better understand the current situation of HIV-1 CRF_BC prevalence and facilitate the development of vaccines and more efficient anti-HIV-1 regimens in China.

Experimental Infection of Young Pigs with an Early European Strain of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhoea Virus and a Recent US Strain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lohse, Louise; Krog, Jesper Schak; Strandbygaard, Bertel

2017-01-01

Outbreaks of porcine epidemic diarrhoea (PED) were reported across Europe during the 1980s and 1990s, but only sporadic outbreaks occurred in recent years. PED virus (PEDV) spread for the first time into the USA in 2013 and has caused severe economic losses. Retrospectively, it was found that two...

The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G; Lepej, Snjezana J; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie-Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

2016-12-01

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti to United States. However, the pattern of the subsequent spread still remains poorly understood. Here we analyze a large dataset of globally representative HIV-1 subtype B strains to map their spread around the world over the last 50years and describe significant spread patterns. We show that subtype B travelled from North America to Western Europe in different occasions, while Central/Eastern Europe remained isolated for the most part of the early epidemic. Looking with more detail in European countries we see that the United Kingdom, France and Switzerland exchanged viral isolates with non-European countries than with European ones. The observed pattern is likely to mirror geopolitical landmarks in the post-World War II era, namely the rise and the fall of the Iron Curtain and the European colonialism. In conclusion, HIV-1 spread through specific migration routes which are consistent with geopolitical factors that affected human activities during the last 50years, such as migration, tourism and trade. Our findings support the argument that epidemic control policies should be global and incorporate political and socioeconomic factors. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cyanobacteria facilitate parasite epidemics in Daphnia.

Science.gov (United States)

Tellenbach, C; Tardent, N; Pomati, F; Keller, B; Hairston, N G; Wolinska, J; Spaak, P

2016-12-01

The seasonal dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community of lake ecosystems can have severe implications for higher trophic levels. For herbivorous zooplankton such as Daphnia, cyanobacteria have poor nutritional value and some species can produce toxins affecting zooplankton survival and reproduction. Here we present another, hitherto largely unexplored aspect of cyanobacteria, namely that they can increase Daphnia susceptibility to parasites. In a 12-yr monthly time-series analysis of the Daphnia community in Greifensee (Switzerland), we observed that cyanobacteria density correlated significantly with the epidemics of a common gut parasite of Daphnia, Caullerya mesnili, regardless of what cyanobacteria species was present or whether it was colonial or filamentous. The temperature from the previous month also affected the occurrence of Caullerya epidemics, either directly or indirectly by the promotion of cyanobacterial growth. A laboratory experiment confirmed that cyanobacteria increase the susceptibility of Daphnia to Caullerya, and suggested a possible involvement of cyanotoxins or other chemical traits of cyanobacteria in this process. These findings expand our understanding of the consequences of toxic cyanobacterial blooms for lake ecosystems and might be relevant for epidemics experienced by other aquatic species. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Large-scale application of highly-diluted bacteria for Leptospirosis epidemic control.

Science.gov (United States)

Bracho, Gustavo; Varela, Enrique; Fernández, Rolando; Ordaz, Barbara; Marzoa, Natalia; Menéndez, Jorge; García, Luis; Gilling, Esperanza; Leyva, Richard; Rufín, Reynaldo; de la Torre, Rubén; Solis, Rosa L; Batista, Niurka; Borrero, Reinier; Campa, Concepción

2010-07-01

Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease of major importance in the tropics where the incidence peaks in rainy seasons. Natural disasters represent a big challenge to Leptospirosis prevention strategies especially in endemic regions. Vaccination is an effective option but of reduced effectiveness in emergency situations. Homeoprophylactic interventions might help to control epidemics by using highly-diluted pathogens to induce protection in a short time scale. We report the results of a very large-scale homeoprophylaxis (HP) intervention against Leptospirosis in a dangerous epidemic situation in three provinces of Cuba in 2007. Forecast models were used to estimate possible trends of disease incidence. A homeoprophylactic formulation was prepared from dilutions of four circulating strains of Leptospirosis. This formulation was administered orally to 2.3 million persons at high risk in an epidemic in a region affected by natural disasters. The data from surveillance were used to measure the impact of the intervention by comparing with historical trends and non-intervention regions. After the homeoprophylactic intervention a significant decrease of the disease incidence was observed in the intervention regions. No such modifications were observed in non-intervention regions. In the intervention region the incidence of Leptospirosis fell below the historic median. This observation was independent of rainfall. The homeoprophylactic approach was associated with a large reduction of disease incidence and control of the epidemic. The results suggest the use of HP as a feasible tool for epidemic control, further research is warranted. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

First isolation of dengue virus from the 2010 epidemic in Nepal.

Science.gov (United States)

Pandey, Basu D; Nabeshima, Takeshi; Pandey, Kishor; Rajendra, Saroj P; Shah, Yogendra; Adhikari, Bal R; Gupta, Govinda; Gautam, Ishan; Tun, Mya M N; Uchida, Reo; Shrestha, Mahendra; Kurane, Ichiro; Morita, Kouichi

2013-09-01

Dengue is an emerging disease in Nepal and was first observed as an outbreak in nine lowland districts in 2006. In 2010, however, a large epidemic of dengue occurred with 4,529 suspected and 917 serologically-confirmed cases and five deaths reported in government hospitals in Nepal. The collection of demographic information was performed along with an entomological survey and clinical evaluation of the patients. A total of 280 serum samples were collected from suspected dengue patients. These samples were subjected to routine laboratory investigations and IgM-capture ELISA for dengue serological identification, and 160 acute serum samples were used for virus isolation, RT-PCR, sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. The results showed that affected patients were predominately adults, and that 10% of the cases were classified as dengue haemorrhagic fever/ dengue shock syndrome. The genetic characterization of dengue viruses isolated from patients in four major outbreak areas of Nepal suggests that the DENV-1 strain was responsible for the 2010 epidemic. Entomological studies identified Aedes aegypti in all epidemic areas. All viruses belonged to a monophyletic single clade which is phylogenetically close to Indian viruses. The dengue epidemic started in the lowlands and expanded to the highland areas. To our knowledge, this is the first dengue isolation and genetic characterization reported from Nepal.

Global analysis of multi-strains SIS, SIR and MSIR epidemic models

OpenAIRE

Bichara , Derdei; Iggidr , Abderrahman; Sallet , Gauthier

2014-01-01

International audience; We consider SIS, SIR and MSIR models with standard mass action and varying population, with $n$ different pathogen strains of an infectious disease. We also consider the same models with vertical transmission. We prove that under generic conditions a competitive exclusion principle holds. To each strain a basic reproduction ratio can be associated. It corresponds to the case where only this strain exists. The basic reproduction ratio of the complete system is the maxim...

Molecular Epidemiology of a novel re-assorted epidemic strain of equine influenza virus in Pakistan in 2015-16.

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Amjad; Mushtaq, Muhammad Hassan; Ahmad, Mansur Ud Din; Nazir, Jawad; Farooqi, Shahid Hussain; Khan, Asghar

2017-08-15

A widespread epidemic of equine influenza (EI) occurred in nonvaccinated equine population across multiple districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan during 2015-2016. An epidemiological surveillance study was conducted from Oct 2015 to April 2016 to investigate the outbreak. EI virus strains were isolated in embryonated eggs from suspected equines swab samples and were subjected to genome sequencing using M13 tagged segment specific primers. Phylogenetic analyses of the nucleotide sequences were concluded using Geneious. Haemagglutinin (HA), Neuraminidase (NA), Matrix (M) and nucleoprotein (NP) genes nucleotide and amino acid sequences of the isolated viruses were aligned with those of OIE recommended, FC-1, FC-2, and contemporary isolates of influenza A viruses from other species. HA and NA genes amino acid sequences were very similar to Tennessee/14 and Malaysia/15 of FC-1 and clustered with the contemporary isolates recently reported in the USA. Phylogenetic analysis showed that these viruses were mostly identical (with 99.6% and 97.4% nucleotide homology) to, and were reassortants containing chicken/Pakistan/14 (H7N3) and Canine/Beijing/10 (H3N2) like M and NP genes. Genetic analysis indicated that A/equine/Pakistan/16 viruses were most probably the result of several re-assortments between the co-circulating avian and equine viruses, and were genetically unlike the other equine viruses due to the presence of H7N3 or H3N2 like M and NP genes. Epidemiological data analysis indicated the potential chance of mixed, and management such as mixed farming system by keeping equine, canine and backyard poultry together in confined premises as the greater risk factors responsible for the re-assortments. Other factors might have contributed to the spread of the epidemic, including low awareness level, poor control of equine movements, and absence of border control disease strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Epidemic typhus.

Science.gov (United States)

Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

2008-07-01

Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

Measles epidemics of variable lethality in the early 20th century.

Science.gov (United States)

Shanks, G Dennis; Hu, Zheng; Waller, Michael; Lee, Seung-eun; Terfa, Daniel; Howard, Alan; van Heyningen, Elizabeth; Brundage, John F

2014-02-15

Until the mid-20th century, mortality rates were often very high during measles epidemics, particularly among previously isolated populations (e.g., islanders), refugees/internees who were forcibly crowded into camps, and military recruits. Searching for insights regarding measles mortality rates, we reviewed historical records of measles epidemics on the Polynesian island of Rotuma (in 1911), in Boer War concentration camps (in 1900-1902), and in US Army mobilization camps during the First World War (in 1917-1918). Records classified measles deaths by date and clinical causes; by demographic characteristics, family relationships (for Rotuma islanders and Boer camp internees), and prior residences; and by camp (for Boer internees and US Army recruits). During the Rotuman and Boer War epidemics, measles-related mortality rates were high (up to 40%); however, mortality rates differed more than 10-fold across camps/districts, even though conditions were similar. During measles epidemics, most deaths among camp internees/military recruits were due to secondary bacterial pneumonias; in contrast, most deaths among Rotuman islanders were due to gastrointestinal complications. The clinical expressions, courses, and outcomes of measles during first-contact epidemics differ from those during camp epidemics. The degree of isolation from respiratory pathogens other than measles may significantly determine measles-related mortality risk.

Detection of cholera (ctx) and zonula occludens (zot) toxin genes in Vibrio cholerae O1, O139 and non-O1 strains.

Science.gov (United States)

Rivera, I G; Chowdhury, M A; Sanchez, P S; Sato, M I; Huq, A; Colwell, R R; Martins, M T

1995-09-01

Vibrio cholerae O1 and V. cholerae non-O1 strains isolated from environmental samples collected in São Paulo, Brazil, during cholera epidemics and pre-epidemic periods were examined for the presence of toxin genes. V. cholerae O1 strains isolated from clinical samples in Peru and Mexico, and V. cholerae O139 strains from India were also examined for the presence of ctx (cholera toxin gene) and zot (zonula occludens toxin gene) by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). A modified DNA-extraction method applied in this study yielded satisfactory recovery of genomic DNA from vibrios. Results showed that strains of V. cholerae O1 isolated during the preepidemic period were ctx (-)/zot (-) whereas strains isolated during the epidemic were ctx (+)/zot (+). All V. cholerae non-O1 strains tested in the study were ctx (-)/zot (-), whereas all V. cholerae O139 strains were ctx (+)/zot (+). Rapid detection of the virulence genes (ctx and zot) can be achieved by PCR and this can serve as an important tool in the epidemiology and surveillance of V. cholerae.

Whole-Genome Characterization of Epidemic Neisseria meningitidis Serogroup C and Resurgence of Serogroup W, Niger, 2015

Science.gov (United States)

Kretz, Cecilia B.; Retchless, Adam C.; Sidikou, Fati; Issaka, Bassira; Ousmane, Sani; Schwartz, Stephanie; Tate, Ashley H.; Pana, Assimawè; Njanpop-Lafourcade, Berthe-Marie; Nzeyimana, Innocent; Nse, Ricardo Obama; Deghmane, Ala-Eddine; Hong, Eva; Brynildsrud, Ola Brønstad; Novak, Ryan T.; Meyer, Sarah A.; Oukem-Boyer, Odile Ouwe Missi; Ronveaux, Olivier; Caugant, Dominique A.; Taha, Muhamed-Kheir

2016-01-01

In 2015, Niger reported the largest epidemic of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C (NmC) meningitis in sub-Saharan Africa. The NmC epidemic coincided with serogroup W (NmW) cases during the epidemic season, resulting in a total of 9,367 meningococcal cases through June 2015. To clarify the phylogenetic association, genetic evolution, and antibiotic determinants of the meningococcal strains in Niger, we sequenced the genomes of 102 isolates from this epidemic, comprising 81 NmC and 21 NmW isolates. The genomes of 82 isolates were completed, and all 102 were included in the analysis. All NmC isolates had sequence type 10217, which caused the outbreaks in Nigeria during 2013–2014 and for which a clonal complex has not yet been defined. The NmC isolates from Niger were substantially different from other NmC isolates collected globally. All NmW isolates belonged to clonal complex 11 and were closely related to the isolates causing recent outbreaks in Africa. PMID:27649262

Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Y.; Xiao, G.

2012-01-01

We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Y. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A-STAR), Singapore 138632 (Singapore); Xiao, G., E-mail: egxxiao@ntu.edu.sg [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

2012-09-03

We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

Enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus sequences and the PCR to generate fingerprints of genomic DNAs from Vibrio cholerae O1, O139, and non-O1 strains.

OpenAIRE

Rivera, I G; Chowdhury, M A; Huq, A; Jacobs, D; Martins, M T; Colwell, R R

1995-01-01

Enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus (ERIC) sequence polymorphism was studied in Vibrio Cholerae strains isolated before and after the cholera epidemic in Brazil (in 1991), along with epidemic strains from Peru, Mexico, and India, by PCR. A total of 17 fingerprint patterns (FPs) were detected in the V. cholerae strains examined; 96.7% of the toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains and 100% of the O139 serogroup strains were found to belong to the same FP group comprising four fragments (F...

Susceptibility of Ae. aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) to infection with epidemic (subtype IC) and enzootic (subtypes ID, IIIC, IIID) Venezuelan equine encephalitis complex alphaviruses.

Science.gov (United States)

Ortiz, Diana I; Kang, Wenli; Weaver, Scoti C

2008-11-01

To test the hypothesis that enzootic and epidemic Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) complex alphaviruses can infect and be transmitted by Ae. aegypti, we conducted a series of experimental infection studies. One set of experiments tested the susceptibility of geographic strains of Ae. aegypti from Peru and Texas (U.S.A.) for epidemic (subtype IC) and enzootic (subtype ID) strains from Colombia/Venezuela, whereas the second set of experiments tested the susceptibility of Ae. aegypti from Iquitos, Peru, to enzootic VEE complex strains (subtypes ID, IIIC, and IIID) isolated in the same region, at different infectious doses. Experimental infections using artificial bloodmeals suggested that Ae. aegypti mosquitoes, particularly the strain from Iquitos, Peru, is moderately to highly susceptible to all of these VEE complex alphaviruses. The occurrence of enzootic VEE complex viruses circulating endemically in Iquitos suggests the possibility of a dengue-like transmission cycle among humans in tropical cities.

Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linda Valeri

Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered.To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2 in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated how these growth rates, as well as epidemic size within ADM2s, were ecologically associated with several demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ADM2, using bivariate correlations and multivariable regression models.The polynomial growth model appeared to best fit the ADM2 epidemic curves, displaying the lowest residual standard error. Each outcome was associated with various regional characteristics in bivariate models, however in stepwise multivariable models only mean education levels were consistently associated with a worse local epidemic.By combining two common methods-estimation of epidemic parameters using mathematical models, and estimation of associations using ecological regression models-we identified some factors predicting rapid and severe EVD epidemics in West African subnational regions. While care should be taken interpreting such results as anything more than correlational, we suggest that our approach of using data sources that were publicly available in advance of the epidemic or in real-time provides an analytic framework that may assist countries in understanding the dynamics of future outbreaks as they occur.

Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

2013-01-01

This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... the SID model’s behavior and impact on the network performance, as well as the severity of the infection spreading. The simulations are carried out in OPNET Modeler. The model provides an important input to epidemic connection recovery mechanisms, and can due to its flexibility and versatility be used...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

Stochastic epidemic-type model with enhanced connectivity: exact solution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, H T; Mazilu, I; Mazilu, D A

2012-01-01

We present an exact analytical solution to a one-dimensional model of the susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) epidemic type, with infection rates dependent on nearest-neighbor occupations. We use a quantum mechanical approach, transforming the master equation via a quantum spin operator formulation. We calculate exactly the time-dependent density of infected, recovered and susceptible populations for random initial conditions. Our results compare well with those of previous work, validating the model as a useful tool for additional and extended studies in this important area. Our model also provides exact solutions for the n-point correlation functions, and can be extended to more complex epidemic-type models

Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Ming Hui, Pak; Liu, Zonghua

2015-06-01

The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller’s viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading.

Implication of lateral genetic transfer in the emergence of Aeromonas hydrophila isolates of epidemic outbreaks in channel catfish.

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Mohammad J Hossain

Full Text Available To investigate the molecular basis of the emergence of Aeromonas hydrophila responsible for an epidemic outbreak of motile aeromonad septicemia of catfish in the Southeastern United States, we sequenced 11 A. hydrophila isolates that includes five reference and six recent epidemic isolates. Comparative genomics revealed that recent epidemic A. hydrophila isolates are highly clonal, whereas reference isolates are greatly diverse. We identified 55 epidemic-associated genetic regions with 313 predicted genes that are present in epidemic isolates but absent from reference isolates and 35% of these regions are located within genomic islands, suggesting their acquisition through lateral gene transfer. The epidemic-associated regions encode predicted prophage elements, pathogenicity islands, metabolic islands, fitness islands and genes of unknown functions, and 34 of the genes encoded in these regions were predicted as virulence factors. We found two pilus biogenesis gene clusters encoded within predicted pathogenicity islands. A functional metabolic island that encodes a complete pathway for myo-inositol catabolism was evident by the ability of epidemic A. hydrophila isolates to use myo-inositol as a sole carbon source. Testing of A. hydrophila field isolates found a consistent correlation between myo-inositol utilization as a sole carbon source and the presence of an epidemic-specific genetic marker. All epidemic isolates and one reference isolate shared a novel O-antigen cluster. Altogether we identified four different O-antigen biosynthesis gene clusters within the 11 sequenced A. hydrophila genomes. Our study reveals new insights into the evolutionary changes that have resulted in the emergence of recent epidemic A. hydrophila strains.

Association of Drought with Typhus Epidemics in Central Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Acuna-Soto, R.; Stahle, D.; Villanueva Diaz, J.; Therrell, M.

2007-05-01

Typhus is an acute infectious disease caused by the bacteria Rickettsia prowazekii, which is transmitted among humans by the body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). The disease is highly contagious and transmission is favored in populations living in crowded conditions. Under these circumstances, typhus transmission is facilitated by factors that favor the colonization and proliferation of body lice such as absence of personal hygiene and wearing the same clothes for long periods of time. Historically, periods of war and famine were associated with devastating epidemics with high mortality rates in many parts of the world. Central Mexico has a long record of typhus epidemics. In this region, at > 2000 meters above sea level, the disease was endemic and occurred with a seasonal pattern in winter, with occasional large epidemics. Recently, we completed a chronology of epidemics in Mexico. A total of 22 well-defined major typhus epidemics were identified between 1650 and 1920. All of them caused periods of increased mortality that lasted 2 - 4 years (more than one standard deviation from the previous ten year period). The record of typhus epidemics was evaluated against the tree-ring record of Cuauhtmoc La Fragua, Puebla. This chronology, based on Douglas fir, has demonstrated to be a faithful record of precipitation in central Mexico. The results indicate that a statistically significant drought (t test, p first year of all 22 large outbreaks of typhus in recent Mexican history. No distinction is made between times of peace and war. This indicates that drought alone was capable of inducing the social conditions for increased transmission of typhus in pre-industrial central Mexico.

The 1982 epidemic--roller skating injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Bunker, T. D.

1983-01-01

A series of 100 roller skating injuries is presented. Roller skating injuries have been occurring at a higher rate than the previously reported skateboarding epidemic of 1977. The severity of injury has been lower, 32% fractures and dislocations occurring whilst roller skating, compared to 60% whilst skateboarding. In particular a striking reduction is seen in ankle fractures. Fifty questionnaires detailing method of injury were analysed. Images p205-a Fig. 1 Fig. 2 PMID:6652406

Phylogenetic analysis of canine distemper virus in South America clade 1 reveals unique molecular signatures of the local epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Cristine D B; Gräf, Tiago; Ikuta, Nilo; Lehmann, Fernanda K M; Passos, Daniel T; Makiejczuk, Aline; Silveira, Marcos A T; Fonseca, André S K; Canal, Cláudio W; Lunge, Vagner R

2016-07-01

Canine distemper virus (CDV) is a highly contagious pathogen for domestic dogs and several wild carnivore species. In Brazil, natural infection of CDV in dogs is very high due to the large non-vaccinated dog population, a scenario that calls for new studies on the molecular epidemiology. This study investigates the phylodynamics and amino-acid signatures of CDV epidemic in South America by analyzing a large dataset compiled from publicly available sequences and also by collecting new samples from Brazil. A population of 175 dogs with canine distemper (CD) signs was sampled, from which 89 were positive for CDV, generating 42 new CDV sequences. Phylogenetic analysis of the new and publicly available sequences revealed that Brazilian sequences mainly clustered in South America 1 (SA1) clade, which has its origin estimated to the late 1980's. The reconstruction of the demographic history in SA1 clade showed an epidemic expanding until the recent years, doubling in size every nine years. SA1 clade epidemic distinguished from the world CDV epidemic by the emergence of the R580Q strain, a very rare and potentially detrimental substitution in the viral genome. The R580Q substitution was estimated to have happened in one single evolutionary step in the epidemic history in SA1 clade, emerging shortly after introduction to the continent. Moreover, a high prevalence (11.9%) of the Y549H mutation was observed among the domestic dogs sampled here. This finding was associated (p<0.05) with outcome-death and higher frequency in mixed-breed dogs, the later being an indicator of a continuous exchange of CDV strains circulating among wild carnivores and domestic dogs. The results reported here highlight the diversity of the worldwide CDV epidemic and reveal local features that can be valuable for combating the disease. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genomic characterization of a large outbreak of Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 strains in Quebec City, 2012.

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Simon Lévesque

Full Text Available During the summer of 2012, a major Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 outbreak occurred in Quebec City, Canada, which caused 182 declared cases of Legionnaire's disease and included 13 fatalities. Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 isolates from 23 patients as well as from 32 cooling towers located in the vicinity of the outbreak were recovered for analysis. In addition, 6 isolates from the 1996 Quebec City outbreak and 4 isolates from patients unrelated to both outbreaks were added to allow comparison. We characterized the isolates using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, sequence-based typing, and whole genome sequencing. The comparison of patients-isolated strains to cooling tower isolates allowed the identification of the tower that was the source of the outbreak. Legionella pneumophila strain Quebec 2012 was identified as a ST-62 by sequence-based typing methodology. Two new Legionellaceae plasmids were found only in the epidemic strain. The LVH type IV secretion system was found in the 2012 outbreak isolates but not in the ones from the 1996 outbreak and only in half of the contemporary human isolates. The epidemic strains replicated more efficiently and were more cytotoxic to human macrophages than the environmental strains tested. At least four Icm/Dot effectors in the epidemic strains were absent in the environmental strains suggesting that some effectors could impact the intracellular replication in human macrophages. Sequence-based typing and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis combined with whole genome sequencing allowed the identification and the analysis of the causative strain including its likely environmental source.

Epidemic as a natural process.

Science.gov (United States)

Koivu-Jolma, Mikko; Annila, Arto

2018-05-01

Mathematical epidemiology is a well-recognized discipline to model infectious diseases. It also provides guidance for public health officials to limit outbreaks. Nevertheless, epidemics take societies by surprise every now and then, for example, when the Ebola virus epidemic raged seemingly unrestrained in Western Africa. We provide insight to this capricious character of nature by describing the epidemic as a natural process, i.e., a phenomenon governed by thermodynamics. Our account, based on statistical mechanics of open systems, clarifies that it is impossible to predict accurately epidemic courses because everything depends on everything else. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic theory yields a comprehensive and analytical view of the epidemic. The tenet subsumes various processes in a scale-free manner from the molecular to the societal levels. The holistic view accentuates overarching procedures in arresting and eradicating epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cyber Epidemic Models with Dependences

OpenAIRE

Xu, Maochao; Da, Gaofeng; Xu, Shouhuai

2016-01-01

Studying models of cyber epidemics over arbitrary complex networks can deepen our understanding of cyber security from a whole-system perspective. In this paper, we initiate the investigation of cyber epidemic models that accommodate the {\\em dependences} between the cyber attack events. Due to the notorious difficulty in dealing with such dependences, essentially all existing cyber epidemic models have assumed them away. Specifically, we introduce the idea of Copulas into cyber epidemic mode...

Nonlinear model of epidemic spreading in a complex social network.

Science.gov (United States)

Kosiński, Robert A; Grabowski, A

2007-10-01

The epidemic spreading in a human society is a complex process, which can be described on the basis of a nonlinear mathematical model. In such an approach the complex and hierarchical structure of social network (which has implications for the spreading of pathogens and can be treated as a complex network), can be taken into account. In our model each individual has one of the four permitted states: susceptible, infected, infective, unsusceptible or dead. This refers to the SEIR model used in epidemiology. The state of an individual changes in time, depending on the previous state and the interactions with other individuals. The description of the interpersonal contacts is based on the experimental observations of the social relations in the community. It includes spatial localization of the individuals and hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions. Numerical simulations were performed for different types of epidemics, giving the progress of a spreading process and typical relationships (e.g. range of epidemic in time, the epidemic curve). The spreading process has a complex and spatially chaotic character. The time dependence of the number of infective individuals shows the nonlinear character of the spreading process. We investigate the influence of the preventive vaccinations on the spreading process. In particular, for a critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals the percolation threshold is observed and the epidemic is suppressed.

Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

2014-01-01

This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao, Dawei [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Network, Shandong Computer Science Center, Jinan 250014 (China); Li, Lixiang [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Peng, Haipeng, E-mail: penghaipeng@bupt.edu.cn [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

2014-02-01

This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

Emergence and control of epidemic meningococcal meningitis in sub-Saharan Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammed, Idris; Iliyasu, Garba; Habib, Abdulrazaq Garba

2017-02-01

For more than a century, meningitis epidemics have regularly recurred across sub-Saharan Africa, involving 19 contiguous countries that constitute a 'meningitis belt' where historically the causative agent has been serogroup A meningococcus. Attempts to control epidemic meningococcal meningitis in Africa by vaccination with meningococcal polysaccharide (PS) vaccines have not been successful. This is largely because PS vaccines are poorly immunogenic in young children, do not induce immunological memory, and have little or no effect on the pharyngeal carriage. Meningococcal PS-protein conjugate vaccines overcome these deficiencies. Conjugate meningococcal vaccine against serotype A (MenAfriVac) was developed between 2001 and 2009 and deployed in 2010. So far, 262 million individuals have been immunized across the meningitis belt. The public health benefits of MenAfriVac have already been demonstrated by a sharp decline in reported cases of meningococcal disease in the countries where it has been introduced. However, serogroup replacement following mass meningitis vaccination has been noted, and in 2015 an epidemic with a novel strain of serogroup C was recorded in Niger and Nigeria for the first time since 1975. This has posed a serious challenge toward elimination of meningococcal meningitis epidemics in the African. For an effective control of meningococcal meningitis in the African meningitis belt, there is a need for an effective surveillance system, provision of rapid antigen detection kits as well as affordable vaccine that provides protection against the main serogroups causing meningitis in the sub-region.

The risk of global epidemic replacement with drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains

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Emma S. McBryde

2017-03-01

Results and conclusions: The ability of MDR-TB to dominate DS-TB was highly sensitive to the relative transmissibility of the resistant strain; however, MDR-TB could dominate even when its transmissibility was modestly reduced (to between 50% and 100% as transmissible as the DS-TB strain. This model suggests that it may take decades or more for strain replacement to occur. It was also found that while the amplification of resistance is the early cause of MDR-TB, this will rapidly give way to person-to-person transmission.

Impact of human mobility on the emergence of dengue epidemics in Pakistan

Science.gov (United States)

Wesolowski, Amy; Qureshi, Taimur; Boni, Maciej F.; Sundsøy, Pål Roe; Johansson, Michael A.; Rasheed, Syed Basit; Engø-Monsen, Kenth; Buckee, Caroline O.

2015-01-01

The recent emergence of dengue viruses into new susceptible human populations throughout Asia and the Middle East, driven in part by human travel on both local and global scales, represents a significant global health risk, particularly in areas with changing climatic suitability for the mosquito vector. In Pakistan, dengue has been endemic for decades in the southern port city of Karachi, but large epidemics in the northeast have emerged only since 2011. Pakistan is therefore representative of many countries on the verge of countrywide endemic dengue transmission, where prevention, surveillance, and preparedness are key priorities in previously dengue-free regions. We analyze spatially explicit dengue case data from a large outbreak in Pakistan in 2013 and compare the dynamics of the epidemic to an epidemiological model of dengue virus transmission based on climate and mobility data from ∼40 million mobile phone subscribers. We find that mobile phone-based mobility estimates predict the geographic spread and timing of epidemics in both recently epidemic and emerging locations. We combine transmission suitability maps with estimates of seasonal dengue virus importation to generate fine-scale dynamic risk maps with direct application to dengue containment and epidemic preparedness. PMID:26351662

Non-toxigenic environmental Vibrio cholerae O1 strain from Haiti provides evidence of pre-pandemic cholera in Hispaniola

Science.gov (United States)

Azarian, Taj; Ali, Afsar; Johnson, Judith A.; Jubair, Mohammad; Cella, Eleonora; Ciccozzi, Massimo; Nolan, David J.; Farmerie, William; Rashid, Mohammad H.; Sinha-Ray, Shrestha; Alam, Meer T.; Morris, J. Glenn; Salemi, Marco

2016-01-01

Vibrio cholerae is ubiquitous in aquatic environments, with environmental toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains serving as a source for recurrent cholera epidemics and pandemic disease. However, a number of questions remain about long-term survival and evolution of V. cholerae strains within these aquatic environmental reservoirs. Through monitoring of the Haitian aquatic environment following the 2010 cholera epidemic, we isolated two novel non-toxigenic (ctxA/B-negative) Vibrio cholerae O1. These two isolates underwent whole-genome sequencing and were investigated through comparative genomics and Bayesian coalescent analysis. These isolates cluster in the evolutionary tree with strains responsible for clinical cholera, possessing genomic components of 6th and 7th pandemic lineages, and diverge from “modern” cholera strains around 1548 C.E. [95% HPD: 1532–1555]. Vibrio Pathogenicity Island (VPI)-1 was present; however, SXT/R391-family ICE and VPI-2 were absent. Rugose phenotype conversion and vibriophage resistance evidenced adaption for persistence in aquatic environments. The identification of V. cholerae O1 strains in the Haitian environment, which predate the first reported cholera pandemic in 1817, broadens our understanding of the history of pandemics. It also raises the possibility that these and similar environmental strains could acquire virulence genes from the 2010 Haitian epidemic clone, including the cholera toxin producing CTXϕ. PMID:27786291

Pan-genome analysis of Senegalese and Gambian strains of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Mbaye

2016-11-09

Nov 9, 2016 ... 1National Laboratory for Research on Animal Diseases (LNERV ... and Rickettssiology, Faculty for Sciences and Technology - Dakar ... stability of its spores, the high level pathogenicity and ... with an anthrax epidemic through an atmospheric .... Characteristics of Bacillus anthracis strains (samples). Code.

Complementary Hypotheses on Contributors to the Obesity Epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Rachel A H; Plaisance, Eric P; Allison, David B

2018-01-01

Increased rates of obesity have occurred within virtually every race, age, sex, ethnicity, and economic group. Despite substantial punditry on the issue, the exact reasons are incompletely known. The two most common factors cited as contributing to the obesity epidemic, and those whose causal influence on increasing obesity levels in the population are often presumed unequivocally, are food marketing practices and institutionally driven reductions in physical activity. These have been called "the big two." This Perspective builds on previous writings in this area to introduce additional factors that may contribute to the obesity epidemic. It is emphasized that there may be other factors working in combination with the big two, influencing body fatness through effects on energy intake, energy expenditure, and/or nutrient partitioning. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

Economic cost and burden of dengue during epidemics and non-epidemic years in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dih-Ling Luh

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Determining the disease and economic burden of dengue is critical for the allocation of public health resources. Several studies have used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs to estimate the disease burden of dengue in different regions. However, there are no published studies discussing the estimates of dengue-related economic and disease burden specifically in Taiwan. Objectives: We assessed the economic cost and disease burden of dengue infections in Taiwan for the period 1998–2014, and compared these during epidemic and non-epidemic years. Methods: We estimated the annual DALYs per million population using the disability weights for dengue fever (DF, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, dengue shock syndrome (DSS, and death cases. Economic costs were estimated and divided into direct (medical costs and indirect costs (lost work days and caregiver fees. Results: For the period 1998–2014, a mean of 115.3 (range: 6.3–934.3 DALYs per million population annually were lost to dengue. In epidemic years, direct costs associated with dengue resulted mostly from hospitalization (86.09%, emergency (7.77%, outpatient (6.10%, and drug costs (0.03%. For indirect costs, lost productivity due to death (70.76% was the dominant contributor. Overall, the costs were 12.3 times higher in epidemic years than in non-epidemic years (Wilcoxon rank sum test, p < 0.05. Conclusions: This study is the first to evaluate the economic costs and disease burden of dengue infections for this period in Taiwan, and reveals significant differences in economic impact between epidemic and non-epidemic years. Keywords: Economic cost of disease, Disease burden, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, Dengue, Epidemic

Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

... Policy The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic Published: Nov 29, 2017 Facebook Twitter ... 2001-FY 2018 Request The Global Response to HIV/AIDS International efforts to combat HIV began in ...

Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

Science.gov (United States)

Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

2007-04-01

In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chiyori T Urabe

Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

Progenitor “Mycobacterium canettii” clone responsible for lymph node tuberculosis epidemic, Djibouti.

Science.gov (United States)

Blouin, Yann; Cazajous, Géraldine; Dehan, Céline; Soler, Charles; Vong, Rithy; Hassan, Mohamed Osman; Hauck, Yolande; Boulais, Christian; Andriamanantena, Dina; Martinaud, Christophe; Martin, Émilie; Pourcel, Christine; Vergnaud, Gilles

2014-01-01

“Mycobacterium canettii,” an opportunistic human pathogen living in an unknown environmental reservoir, is the progenitor species from which Mycobacterium tuberculosis emerged. Since its discovery in 1969, most of the ≈70 known M. canettii strains were isolated in the Republic of Djibouti, frequently from expatriate children and adults. We show here, by whole-genome sequencing, that most strains collected from February 2010 through March 2013, and associated with 2 outbreaks of lymph node tuberculosis in children, belong to a unique epidemic clone within M. canettii. Evolution of this clone, which has been recovered regularly since 1983, may mimic the birth of M. tuberculosis. Thus, recognizing this organism and identifying its reservoir are clinically important.

Epidemics spread in heterogeneous populations

Science.gov (United States)

Capała, Karol; Dybiec, Bartłomiej

2017-05-01

Individuals building populations are subject to variability. This variability affects progress of epidemic outbreaks, because individuals tend to be more or less resistant. Individuals also differ with respect to their recovery rate. Here, properties of the SIR model in inhomogeneous populations are studied. It is shown that a small change in model's parameters, e.g. recovery or infection rate, can substantially change properties of final states which is especially well-visible in distributions of the epidemic size. In addition to the epidemic size and radii distributions, the paper explores first passage time properties of epidemic outbreaks.

High-frequency rugose exopolysaccharide production by Vibrio cholerae strains isolated in Haiti.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mustafizur Rahman

Full Text Available In October, 2010, epidemic cholera was reported for the first time in Haiti in over 100 years. Establishment of cholera endemicity in Haiti will be dependent in large part on the continued presence of toxigenic V. cholerae O1 in aquatic reservoirs. The rugose phenotype of V. cholerae, characterized by exopolysaccharide production that confers resistance to environmental stress, is a potential contributor to environmental persistence. Using a microbiologic medium promoting high-frequency conversion of smooth to rugose (S-R phenotype, 80 (46.5% of 172 V. cholerae strains isolated from clinical and environmental sources in Haiti were able to convert to a rugose phenotype. Toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains isolated at the beginning of the epidemic (2010 were significantly less likely to shift to a rugose phenotype than clinical strains isolated in 2012/2013, or environmental strains. Frequency of rugose conversion was influenced by incubation temperature and time. Appearance of the biofilm produced by a Haitian clinical rugose strain (altered biotype El Tor HC16R differed from that of a typical El Tor rugose strain (N16961R by confocal microscopy. On whole-genome SNP analysis, there was no phylogenetic clustering of strains showing an ability to shift to a rugose phenotype. Our data confirm the ability of Haitian clinical (and environmental strains to shift to a protective rugose phenotype, and suggest that factors such as temperature influence the frequency of transition to this phenotype.

Hepatitis E epidemics in India

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

[Epidemics and pandemics in general practice. What can we learn from the swine flu (H1N1) and EHEC outbreak?].

Science.gov (United States)

Eisele, M; Hansen, H; Wagner, H-O; von Leitner, E; Pohontsch, N; Scherer, M

2014-06-01

As primary care givers with a coordinating function, general practitioners (GP) play a key role in dealing with epidemics and pandemics. As of yet, there are no studies in Germany describing the difficulties experienced by GPs in patient care during epidemics/pandemics. This study aimed at identifying the problem areas in GPs' patient care during the H1N1 and EHEC (enterohemorrhagic strain of Escherichia coli) outbreaks. With this information, recommendations for guaranteeing proper patient care during future epidemics/pandemics can be derived. In all, 12 qualitative, semi-structured, open guideline interviews with GPs in Hamburg and Lübeck were conducted, transcribed, and evaluated with qualitative content analysis. Five areas in ambulatory patient care were identified in which changes are needed from the primary care perspective: provision of information for GPs, workload, financing of epidemic-related measures, organization of the practices, care of those taken ill. The workload of GPs in particular can and should be reduced through successful, centralized information distribution during epidemics/pandemics. The GP's function as a coordinator should be supported and consolidated, in order to relieve the in-patient sector in cases of an epidemic/pandemic. Secured financing of epidemic-associated measures can help ensure patient care.

Phylogenetic analysis of Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) NSs protein demonstrates the isolated emergence of resistance-breaking strains in pepper.

Science.gov (United States)

Almási, Asztéria; Csilléry, Gábor; Csömör, Zsófia; Nemes, Katalin; Palkovics, László; Salánki, Katalin; Tóbiás, István

2015-02-01

Resurgence of Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) worldwide as well as in Hungary causing heavy economic losses directed the attention to the factors contributing to the outbreak of this serious epidemics. The introgression of Tsw resistance gene into various pepper cultivars seemed to solve TSWV control, but widely used resistant pepper cultivars bearing the same, unique resistance locus evoked the rapid emergence of resistance-breaking (RB) TSWV strains. In Hungary, the sporadic appearance of RB strains in pepper-producing region was first observed in 2010-2011, but in 2012 it was detected frequently. Previously, the non-structural protein (NSs) encoded by small RNA (S RNA) of TSWV was verified as the avirulence factor for Tsw resistance, therefore we analyzed the S RNA of the Hungarian RB and wild type (WT) isolates and compared to previously analyzed TSWV strains with RB properties from different geographical origins. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that the different RB strains had the closest relationship with the local WT isolates and there is no conserved mutation present in all the NSs genes of RB isolates from different geographical origins. According to these results, we concluded that the RB isolates evolved separately in geographic point of view, and also according to the RB mechanism.

Cholera epidemic among Rwandan refugees: experience of ICDDR,B in Goma, Zaire.

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Siddique, A K

1994-01-01

In July 1994, one of the worst cholera epidemics broke out among the nearly a million Rwandan refugees in Goma, eastern Zaire. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees estimated that nearly 12,000 people died during the epidemic. The International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR,B) sent an eight-member medical team to Goma headed by Dr AK Siddique, a senior scientist of the Center and head of the Epidemic Control Preparedness Program, Dacca, Bangladesh. During their two-week stay, the team, in collaboration with UNICEF and the Ministry of Health, Zaire, conducted epidemiological assessment, operated a temporary treatment center and provided technical advice on case management of cholera and shigellosis to other health workers. The team also set up a microbiology laboratory in Goma to identify the pathogens responsible for the epidemic and their drug sensitivity patterns. The team visited a number of temporary treatment facilities in two of the five camp sites and provided technical advice to the health-care providers. They also visited treatment facilities in Goma city, where an estimated 200,000 refugees were affected by the epidemic. Deaths from cholera even in the treatment centers were much higher than expected. The overall case-fatality rate in the treatment centers was nearly 15%. Laboratory investigations showed that the initial epidemic was indeed caused by Vibrio cholerae strains resistant to tetracycline and doxycycline. By the first week of August, the number of cholera cases was declining, but the number of dysentery cases was increasing rapidly. Predominantly Shigella dysenteriae type 1 was responsible, which was resistant to most drugs used for treating shigellosis, except mecillinam. Inappropriate rehydration therapy and inadequate experience of health workers failed to prevent deaths. The team took over the operation of temporary treatment center at Katindo in Goma city with one of the highest case-fatality rates (14

The levelling off of the obesity epidemic since the year 1999--a review of evidence and perspectives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rokholm, B; Baker, J L; Sørensen, T I A

2010-01-01

The purpose was to investigate a possible levelling off in the obesity epidemic, by systematically reviewing literature and web-based sources. Eligible studies and data sources were required to have at least two measures of obesity prevalence since 1999. A literature and Internet search resulted...... obesity trends to identify the driving forces behind the epidemic. It is important to emphasize that the levelling off is not tantamount to calling off the epidemic. Additionally, it is worthwhile to keep in mind that previous stable phases have been followed by further increases in the prevalence...

Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

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Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

2016-08-01

Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

Temporal prediction of epidemic patterns in community networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael

2013-01-01

Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent behaviour in one region because of the invasion from an endemic population elsewhere. In this paper we address this issue and study a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemiological model on a network consisting of two communities, where the disease is endemic in one community but alternates between outbreaks and extinctions in the other. We provide a detailed characterization of the temporal dynamics of epidemic patterns in the latter community. In particular, we investigate the time duration of both outbreak and extinction, and the time interval between two consecutive inter-community infections, as well as their frequency distributions. Based on the mean-field theory, we theoretically analyse these three timescales and their dependence on the average node degree of each community, the transmission parameters and the number of inter-community links, which are in good agreement with simulations, except when the probability of overlaps between successive outbreaks is too large. These findings aid us in better understanding the bursty nature of disease spreading in a local community, and thereby suggesting effective time-dependent control strategies. (paper)

Lethal distemper in badgers (Meles meles) following epidemic in dogs and wolves.

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Di Sabatino, Daria; Di Francesco, Gabriella; Zaccaria, Guendalina; Malatesta, Daniela; Brugnola, Luca; Marcacci, Maurilia; Portanti, Ottavio; De Massis, Fabrizio; Savini, Giovanni; Teodori, Liana; Ruggieri, Enzo; Mangone, Iolanda; Badagliacca, Pietro; Lorusso, Alessio

2016-12-01

Canine distemper virus (CDV) represents an important conservation threat to many wild carnivores. A large distemper epidemic sustained by an Arctic-lineage strain occurred in Italy in 2013, mainly in the Abruzzi region, causing overt disease in domestic and shepherd dogs, Apennine wolves (Canis lupus) and other wild carnivores. Two badgers were collected by the end of September 2015 in a rural area of the Abruzzi region and were demonstrated to be CDV-positive by real time RT-PCR and IHC in several tissues. The genome of CDV isolates from badgers showed Y549H substitution in the mature H protein. By employing all publicly available Arctic-lineage H protein encoding gene sequences, six amino acid changes in recent Italian strains with respect to Italian strains of dogs from 2000 to 2008, were observed. A CDV strain belonging to the European-wildlife lineage was also identified in a fox found dead in the same region in 2016, proving co-circulation of an additional CDV lineage. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Public health interventions for epidemics: implications for multiple infection waves.

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Wessel, Lindsay; Hua, Yi; Wu, Jianhong; Moghadas, Seyed M

2011-02-25

Epidemics with multiple infection waves have been documented for some human diseases, most notably during past influenza pandemics. While pathogen evolution, co-infection, and behavioural changes have been proposed as possible mechanisms for the occurrence of subsequent outbreaks, the effect of public health interventions remains undetermined. We develop mean-field and stochastic epidemiological models for disease transmission, and perform simulations to show how control measures, such as drug treatment and isolation of ill individuals, can influence the epidemic profile and generate sequences of infection waves with different characteristics. We demonstrate the impact of parameters representing the effectiveness and adverse consequences of intervention measures, such as treatment and emergence of drug resistance, on the spread of a pathogen in the population. If pathogen resistant strains evolve under drug pressure, multiple outbreaks are possible with variability in their characteristics, magnitude, and timing. In this context, the level of drug use and isolation capacity play an important role in the occurrence of subsequent outbreaks. Our simulations for influenza infection as a case study indicate that the intensive use of these interventions during the early stages of the epidemic could delay the spread of disease, but it may also result in later infection waves with possibly larger magnitudes. The findings highlight the importance of intervention parameters in the process of public health decision-making, and in evaluating control measures when facing substantial uncertainty regarding the epidemiological characteristics of an emerging infectious pathogen. Critical factors that influence population health including evolutionary responses of the pathogen under the pressure of different intervention measures during an epidemic should be considered for the design of effective strategies that address short-term targets compatible with long-term disease outcomes.

Identification of resistance and virulence factors in an epidemic Enterobacter hormaechei outbreak strain

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Paauw, A.; Caspers, M.P.M.; Leverstein-van Hall, M.A.; Schuren, F.H.J.; Montijn, R.C.; Verhoef, J.; Fluit, A.C.

2009-01-01

Bacterial strains differ in their ability to cause hospital outbreaks. Using comparative genomic hybridization, Enterobacter cloacae complex isolates were studied to identify genetic markers specific for Enterobacter cloacae complex outbreak strains. No outbreak-specific genes were found that were

Sudden transitions in coupled opinion and epidemic dynamics with vaccination

Science.gov (United States)

Pires, Marcelo A.; Oestereich, André L.; Crokidakis, Nuno

2018-05-01

This work consists of an epidemic model with vaccination coupled with an opinion dynamics. Our objective was to study how disease risk perception can influence opinions about vaccination and therefore the spreading of the disease. Differently from previous works we have considered continuous opinions. The epidemic spreading is governed by an SIS-like model with an extra vaccinated state. In our model individuals vaccinate with a probability proportional to their opinions. The opinions change due to peer influence in pairwise interactions. The epidemic feedback to the opinion dynamics acts as an external field increasing the vaccination probability. We performed Monte Carlo simulations in fully-connected populations. Interestingly we observed the emergence of a first-order phase transition, besides the usual active-absorbing phase transition presented in the SIS model. Our simulations also show that with a certain combination of parameters, an increment in the initial fraction of the population that is pro-vaccine has a twofold effect: it can lead to smaller epidemic outbreaks in the short term, but it also contributes to the survival of the chain of infections in the long term. Our results also suggest that it is possible that more effective vaccines can decrease the long-term vaccine coverage. This is a counterintuitive outcome, but it is in line with empirical observations that vaccines can become a victim of their own success.

Phenotypic, Genotypic, and Antibiotic Sensitivity Patterns of Strains Isolated from the Cholera Epidemic in Zimbabwe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Islam, Mohammad S.; Mahmud, Zahid H.; Ansaruzzaman, Mohammad; Faruque, Shah M.; Talukder, Kaisar A.; Qadri, Firdausi; Alam, Munirul; Islam, Shafiqul; Bardhan, Pradip K.; Mazumder, Ramendra N.; Khan, Azharul I.; Ahmed, Sirajuddin; Iqbal, Anwarul; Chitsatso, Owen; Mudzori, James; Patel, Sheetal; Midzi, Stanley M.; Charimari, Lincoln; Endtz, Hubert P.; Cravioto, Alejandro

This paper details the phenotypic, genotypic, and antibiotic sensitivity patterns of 88 Vibrio cholerae strains from Zimbabwe. Of the 88 strains, 83 were classified as "altered El Tor" and 5 as "hybrid El Tor" strains. All of the strains were susceptible to tetracycline, doxycycline, ciprofloxacin,

Endemic and Epidemic Lineages of Escherichia coli that Cause Urinary Tract Infections

Science.gov (United States)

Tabor, Helen; Tellis, Patricia; Vincent, Caroline; Tellier, Pierre-Paul

2008-01-01

Women with urinary tract infections (UTIs) in California, USA (1999–2001), were infected with closely related or indistinguishable strains of Escherichia coli (clonal groups), which suggests point source dissemination. We compared strains of UTI-causing E. coli in California with strains causing such infections in Montréal, Québec, Canada. Urine specimens from women with community-acquired UTIs in Montréal (2006) were cultured for E. coli. Isolates that caused 256 consecutive episodes of UTI were characterized by antimicrobial drug susceptibility profile, enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus 2 PCR, serotyping, XbaI and NotI pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, multilocus sequence typing, and phylogenetic typing. We confirmed the presence of drug-resistant, genetically related, and temporally clustered E. coli clonal groups that caused community-acquired UTIs in unrelated women in 2 locations and 2 different times. Two clonal groups were identified in both locations. Epidemic transmission followed by endemic transmission of UTI-causing clonal groups may explain these clusters of UTI cases. PMID:18826822

A Study Of Hospitalised Cases Of Acute Gastroenteritis Admitted In Civil Hospital, Ahmedabad During The Epidemic Of 1988.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kumar P

1990-01-01

Full Text Available An epidemic of gastroenteritis occurred between July and November 1988 in Ahmedabad City. The epidemic originated from Saijpur Bocha locality of the city and thereafter several new foci also development. The city has a number of Government and Municipal Corporation run hospitals as well as private treatment centers where these cases were treated. The Corporation also took measures to control this epidemic. The present study analysis the cases of gastroenteritis (2008 and cholera (112 admitted to the Civil Hospital during this period. The cases occurred in all age groups and both sexes. However, when compared with hospital records of previous non- epidemic years, more cases were found in the adult population and the case fatality rate was low during this epidemic. The study details the various control measures taken by the Municipal Corporation.

International dissemination of epidemic Vibrio cholerae by cargo ship ballast and other nonpotable waters.

Science.gov (United States)

McCarthy, S A; Khambaty, F M

1994-07-01

In 1991 and 1992, toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1, serotype Inaba, biotype El Tor, was recovered from nonpotable (ballast, bilge, and sewage) water from five cargo ships docked in ports of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Four of these ships had taken on ballast water in cholera-infected countries; the fifth took on ballast in a noninfected country. Isolates examined by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis were indistinguishable from the Latin American epidemic strain, C6707; however, they differed significantly from the endemic Gulf Coast strain (VRL 1984), the sixth-pandemic strain (569-B), and a V. cholerae non-O1 strain isolated from a ship arriving from a foreign port. On the basis of our findings, the Food and Drug Administration recommended that the U.S. Coast Guard issue an advisory to shipping agents and captains requesting that ballast waters be exchanged on the high seas before entry of ships into U.S. ports.

Epidemic of Postsurgical Infections Caused by Mycobacterium massiliense▿

Science.gov (United States)

Duarte, Rafael Silva; Lourenço, Maria Cristina Silva; Fonseca, Leila de Souza; Leão, Sylvia Cardoso; Amorim, Efigenia de Lourdes T.; Rocha, Ingrid L. L.; Coelho, Fabrice Santana; Viana-Niero, Cristina; Gomes, Karen Machado; da Silva, Marlei Gomes; de Oliveira Lorena, Nádia Suely; Pitombo, Marcos Bettini; Ferreira, Rosa M. C.; de Oliveira Garcia, Márcio Henrique; de Oliveira, Gisele Pinto; Lupi, Otilia; Vilaça, Bruno Rios; Serradas, Lúcia Rodrigues; Chebabo, Alberto; Marques, Elizabeth Andrade; Teixeira, Lúcia Martins; Dalcolmo, Margareth; Senna, Simone Gonçalves; Sampaio, Jorge Luiz Mello

2009-01-01

An epidemic of infections after video-assisted surgery (1,051 possible cases) caused by rapidly growing mycobacteria (RGM) and involving 63 hospitals in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, occurred between August 2006 and July 2007. One hundred ninety-seven cases were confirmed by positive acid-fast staining and/or culture techniques. Thirty-eight hospitals had cases confirmed by mycobacterial culture, with a total of 148 available isolates recovered from 146 patients. Most (n = 144; 97.2%) isolates presented a PRA-hsp65 restriction pattern suggestive of Mycobacterium bolletii or Mycobacterium massiliense. Seventy-four of these isolates were further identified by hsp65 or rpoB partial sequencing, confirming the species identification as M. massiliense. Epidemic isolates showed susceptibility to amikacin (MIC at which 90% of the tested isolates are inhibited [MIC90], 8 μg/ml) and clarithromycin (MIC90, 0.25 μg/ml) but resistance to ciprofloxacin (MIC90, ≥32 μg/ml), cefoxitin (MIC90, 128 μg/ml), and doxycycline (MIC90, ≥64 μg/ml). Representative epidemic M. massiliense isolates that were randomly selected, including at least one isolate from each hospital where confirmed cases were detected, belonged to a single clone, as indicated by the analysis of pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) patterns. They also had the same PFGE pattern as that previously observed in two outbreaks that occurred in other Brazilian cities; we designated this clone BRA100. All five BRA100 M. massiliense isolates tested presented consistent tolerance to 2% glutaraldehyde. This is the largest epidemic of postsurgical infections caused by RGM reported in the literature to date in Brazil. PMID:19403765

Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

KAUST Repository

Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

2017-01-01

We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe

Focal Points, Endogenous Processes, and Exogenous Shocks in the Autism Epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Kayuet; Bearman, Peter S.

2015-01-01

Autism prevalence has increased rapidly in the United States during the past two decades. We have previously shown that the diffusion of information about autism through spatially proximate social relations has contributed significantly to the epidemic. This study expands on this finding by identifying the focal points for interaction that drive…

Diagnostic evaluation of assays for detection of antibodies against porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) in pigs exposed to different PEDV strains

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gerber, Priscilla F.; Lelli, Davide; Zhang, Jianqiang

2016-01-01

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) has caused economic losses in the Americas, Asia and Europe in recent years. Reliable serological assays are essential for epidemiological studies and vaccine evaluation. The objective of this study was to compare the ability of five enzyme-linked immunosorb......Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) has caused economic losses in the Americas, Asia and Europe in recent years. Reliable serological assays are essential for epidemiological studies and vaccine evaluation. The objective of this study was to compare the ability of five enzyme...

Epidemics on adaptive networks with geometric constraints

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, Leah; Schwartz, Ira

2008-03-01

When a population is faced with an epidemic outbreak, individuals may modify their social behavior to avoid exposure to the disease. Recent work has considered models in which the contact network is rewired dynamically so that susceptibles avoid contact with infectives. We consider extensions in which the rewiring is subject to constraints that preserve key properties of the social network structure. Constraining to a fixed degree distribution destroys previously observed bistable behavior. The most effective rewiring strategy is found to depend on the spreading rate.

Biochemical and full genome sequence analyses of clinical Vibrio cholerae isolates in Mexico reveals the presence of novel V. cholerae strains.

Science.gov (United States)

Díaz-Quiñonez, José Alberto; Hernández-Monroy, Irma; Montes-Colima, Norma Angélica; Moreno-Pérez, María Asunción; Galicia-Nicolás, Adriana Guadalupe; López-Martínez, Irma; Ruiz-Matus, Cuitláhuac; Kuri-Morales, Pablo; Ortíz-Alcántara, Joanna María; Garcés-Ayala, Fabiola; Ramírez-González, José Ernesto

2016-05-01

The first week of September 2013, the National Epidemiological Surveillance System identified two cases of cholera in Mexico City. The cultures of both samples were confirmed as Vibrio cholerae serogroup O1, serotype Ogawa, biotype El Tor. Initial analyses by PFGE and by PCR-amplification of the virulence genes, suggested that both strains were similar, but different from those previously reported in Mexico. The following week, four more cases were identified in a community in the state of Hidalgo, located 121 km northeast of Mexico City. Thereafter a cholera outbreak started in the region of La Huasteca. Genomic analyses of the four strains obtained in this study confirmed the presence of Pathogenicity Islands VPI-1 and -2, VSP-1 and -2, and of the integrative element SXT. The genomic structure of the 4 isolates was similar to that of V. cholerae strain 2010 EL-1786, identified during the epidemic in Haiti in 2010. Copyright © 2016 Institut Pasteur. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Meng; Li, Daqing; Qin, Pengju; Liu, Chaoran; Wang, Huijuan; Wang, Feilong

2015-01-01

Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meng Liu

Full Text Available Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

Distribution and content of class 1 integrons in different Vibrio cholerae O-serotype strains isolated in Thailand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dalsgaard, Anders; Forslund, Anita; Serichantalergs, Oralak

2000-01-01

only a single antibiotic resistance gene. Although resistance genes in class 1 integrons were found in strains from the same epidemic, as well as in unrelated non-O1, non-O139 strains isolated from children with diarrhea, they were found to encode only some of the antibiotic resistance expressed...

An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.

2005-01-01

Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response.Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization.The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological

[Epidemic parotiditis, a reportable disease].

Science.gov (United States)

Boverhoff, J C; Baart, J A

2013-01-01

Three consecutive patients with an acute swelling of one of the cheeks, were diagnosed with epidemic parotiditis. The first phase of the diagnostic procedure for an acute cheek swelling is to eliminate the possibility of odontogenic causes. When odontogenic problems have been excluded, non-dentition-related causes may be considered. An acute, progressive swelling in the preauricular area can often be attributed to an inflammation of the parotid gland, but epidemic parotiditis should also be considered. Epidemic parotiditis, or mumps, is caused by the mumps virus. Contamination occurs aerogenically. In the Netherlands, mumps vaccine is an ingredient of the governmental combined mump-measles-rubella inoculation programme. However, in recent years several small-scale parotiditis epidemics have broken out, predominantly among young, inoculated adults. Oropharyngeal mucus and blood samples are needed to diagnose the disease. Each case of the disease should be reported to the community healthcare service.

Concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leung, Ka Yin; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate whether concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold. DESIGN AND METHODS: We use a mathematical framework for a dynamic partnership network and the spread of a one-stage infection to study how concurrency is

Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

2016-09-01

Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Ebola epidemic--Liberia, March-October 2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Nyenswah, Tolbert; Fahnbulleh, Miatta; Massaquoi, Moses; Nagbe, Thomas; Bawo, Luke; Falla, James Dorbor; Kohar, Henry; Gasasira, Alex; Nabeth, Pierre; Yett, Sheldon; Gergonne, Bernadette; Casey, Sean; Espinosa, Benjamin; McCoy, Andrea; Feldman, Heinz; Hensley, Lisa; Baily, Mark; Fields, Barry; Lo, Terrence; Lindblade, Kim; Mott, Josh; Boulanger, Lucy; Christie, Athalia; Wang, Susan; Montgomery, Joel; Mahoney, Frank

2014-11-21

On March 21, 2014, the Guinea Ministry of Health reported the outbreak of an illness characterized by fever, severe diarrhea, vomiting and a high fatality rate (59%), leading to the first known epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa and the largest and longest Ebola epidemic in history. As of November 2, Liberia had reported the largest number of cases (6,525) and deaths (2,697) among the three affected countries of West Africa with ongoing transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone). The response strategy in Liberia has included management of the epidemic through an incident management system (IMS) in which the activities of all partners are coordinated. Within the IMS, key strategies for epidemic control include surveillance, case investigation, laboratory confirmation, contact tracing, safe transportation of persons with suspected Ebola, isolation, infection control within the health care system, community engagement, and safe burial. This report provides a brief overview of the progression of the epidemic in Liberia and summarizes the interventions implemented.

[Differences in oligomerization of nucleocapsid protein of epidemic human influenza A(H1N1), A(H1N2) and B viruses].

Science.gov (United States)

Prokudina, E N; Semenova, N P; Chumakov, V M; Burtseva, E I; Slepushkin, A N

2003-01-01

A comparative analysis of involving the nucleocapsid protein (NP) into shaping-up of SDS-resistant oligomers was carried out presently in circulating epidemic strains of human influenza, viruses A and B. The study results of viral isolates obtained from clinical samples and recent standard strains revealed that the involvement of NP in the SDS-resistant oligomers, which are different in various subtypes of influenza A viruses. According to this sign, the human viruses A(9H3N2) are close to the avian ones, in which, as proved by us previously, virtually the entire NP transforms itself into the oligomers resistant to SDS. About 10-20% of NP are involved in shaping-up the virus influenza A(H1N1) of SDS-resistant oligomers. No SDS-resistant NP-oligomers were detected in influenza of type B. It is suggested that the prevalence of human viruses A(H3N2) in NP-oligomers are the peculiarities of NP structure and of the presence of the PB1 protein from avian influenza virus.

Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Awareness on Human Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanling Lu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The spontaneous awareness behavioral responses of individuals have a significant impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, a modified Susceptible-Alert-Infected-Susceptible (SAIS epidemic model with heterogeneous awareness is presented to study epidemic spreading in human networks and the impact of heterogeneous awareness on epidemic dynamics. In this model, when susceptible individuals receive awareness information about the presence of epidemic from their infected neighbor nodes, they will become alert individuals with heterogeneous awareness rate. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that heterogeneous awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold with certain conditions and reduce the scale of virus outbreaks compared with no awareness. What is more, for the same awareness parameter, it also shows that heterogeneous awareness can slow effectively the spreading size and does not delay the arrival time of epidemic spreading peak compared with homogeneous awareness.

Epidemics in adaptive networks with community structure

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, Leah; Tunc, Ilker

2010-03-01

Models for epidemic spread on static social networks do not account for changes in individuals' social interactions. Recent studies of adaptive networks have modeled avoidance behavior, as non-infected individuals try to avoid contact with infectives. Such models have not generally included realistic social structure. Here we study epidemic spread on an adaptive network with community structure. We model the effect of heterogeneous communities on infection levels and epidemic extinction. We also show how an epidemic can alter the community structure.

Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

2014-01-01

Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

2014-01-31

Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

Epidemic processes in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

2015-07-01

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

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Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

2017-05-05

An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Epidemic O'Nyong-Nyong fever in southcentral Uganda, 1996-1997: entomologic studies in Bbaale village, Rakai District.

Science.gov (United States)

Lutwama, J J; Kayondo, J; Savage, H M; Burkot, T R; Miller, B R

1999-07-01

Entomologic studies were conducted between January 27 and February 2, 1997, in Bbaale village in southcentral Uganda during an o'nyong-nyong (ONN) virus epidemic, which began in mid 1996 and continued into 1997. The objectives were to confirm the role of anophelines in ONN virus transmission and to examine other mosquito species as epidemic vectors of ONN virus. Of 10,050 mosquitoes collected using light traps and pyrethrum knockdown sprays, Anopheles (Cellia) funestus Giles was presumed to be the principal vector because it was the most abundant mosquito species from which a strain of ONN virus was isolated. This virus was isolated for the first time from a culicine species, Mansonia (Mansonioides) uniformis Theobald. Bwamba virus and Nyando virus were also isolated from An. funestus.

An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2012-04-01

As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

2014-01-01

Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

Contact allergy epidemics and their controls

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

2007-01-01

Contact dermatitis can be severe and lead to sick leave as well as significant healthcare expenses. The aim of this review is to present the published knowledge on 6 historical epidemics of contact allergy to apply this knowledge on the prevention and control of future contact allergy epidemics. ...... to prevent contact allergy epidemics. It is essential that dermatologist, scientists, administrators, and consumers organize and structure known methods to accelerate the control of emerging contact allergens....

Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

2015-11-01

Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

Genetic Relatedness among Nontypeable Pneumococci Implicated in Sporadic Cases of Conjunctivitis

Science.gov (United States)

Barker, Jason H.; Musher, Daniel M.; Silberman, Ronald; Phan, Hoang M.; Watson, David A.

1999-01-01

Nontypeable Streptococcus pneumoniae is a common cause of epidemic conjunctivitis. A previous molecular fingerprinting study identified a clone of nontypeable pneumococcus that was responsible for a recent outbreak of conjunctivitis. In the present study, we examined the extent to which pneumococci that cause sporadic cases of conjunctivitis are related to this epidemic strain. Using arbitrarily primed BOX-PCR, we have determined that, of 10 nontypeable pneumococci causing sporadic conjunctivitis, 5 were clonal and closely related to a previous outbreak strain, whereas 5 others were genetically diverse. PMID:10565927

Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

McKelvie, William R; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Raeisi, Ahmad

2012-03-23

A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean+0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Ben

2016-03-07

A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sustained Local Diversity of Vibrio cholerae O1 Biotypes in a Previously Cholera-Free Country.

Science.gov (United States)

Boucher, Yan

2016-05-03

Although the current cholera pandemic can trace its origin to a specific time and place, many variants of Vibrio cholerae have caused this disease over the last 50 years. The relative clinical importance and geographical distribution of these variants have changed with time, but most remain in circulation. Some countries, such as Mexico and Haiti, had escaped the current pandemic, until large epidemics struck them in 1991 and 2010, respectively. Cholera has been endemic in these countries ever since. A recent retrospective study in mBio presents the results of more than 3 decades of V. cholerae monitoring from environmental and clinical sources in Mexico (S. Y. Choi et al., mBio 7:e02160-15, 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/mBio.02160-15). It reveals that multiple V. cholerae variants, including classical strains from the previous pandemic, as well as completely novel biotypes, have been circulating in Mexico. This discovery has important implications for the epidemiology and evolution of V. cholerae. Copyright © 2016 Boucher.

Sustained Local Diversity of Vibrio cholerae O1 Biotypes in a Previously Cholera-Free Country

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Boucher

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Although the current cholera pandemic can trace its origin to a specific time and place, many variants of Vibrio cholerae have caused this disease over the last 50 years. The relative clinical importance and geographical distribution of these variants have changed with time, but most remain in circulation. Some countries, such as Mexico and Haiti, had escaped the current pandemic, until large epidemics struck them in 1991 and 2010, respectively. Cholera has been endemic in these countries ever since. A recent retrospective study in mBio presents the results of more than 3 decades of V. cholerae monitoring from environmental and clinical sources in Mexico (S. Y. Choi et al., mBio 7:e02160-15, 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/mBio.02160-15. It reveals that multiple V. cholerae variants, including classical strains from the previous pandemic, as well as completely novel biotypes, have been circulating in Mexico. This discovery has important implications for the epidemiology and evolution of V. cholerae.

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

2014-06-01

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

Evaluation and Comparison of the Pathogenicity and Host Immune Responses Induced by a G2b Taiwan Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (Strain Pintung 52) and Its Highly Cell-Culture Passaged Strain in Conventional 5-Week-Old Pigs.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Yen-Chen; Kao, Chi-Fei; Chang, Chia-Yu; Jeng, Chian-Ren; Tsai, Pei-Shiue; Pang, Victor Fei; Chiou, Hue-Ying; Peng, Ju-Yi; Cheng, Ivan-Chen; Chang, Hui-Wen

2017-05-19

A genogroup 2b (G2b) porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) Taiwan Pintung 52 (PEDVPT) strain was isolated in 2014. The pathogenicity and host antibody responses elicited by low-passage (passage 5; PEDVPT-P5) and high-passage (passage 96; PEDVPT-P96) PEDVPT strains were compared in post-weaning PEDV-seronegative pigs by oral inoculation. PEDVPT-P5-inoculation induced typical diarrhea during 1-9 days post inoculation with fecal viral shedding persisting for 26 days. Compared to PEDVPT-P5, PEDVPT-P96 inoculation induced none-to-mild diarrhea and lower, delayed fecal viral shedding. Although PEDVPT-P96 elicited slightly lower neutralizing antibodies and PEDV-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin A (IgA) titers, a reduction in pathogenicity and viral shedding of the subsequent challenge with PEDVPT-P5 were noted in both PEDVPT-P5- and PEDVPT-P96-inoculated pigs. Alignment and comparison of full-length sequences of PEDVPT-P5 and PEDVPT-P96 revealed 23 nucleotide changes and resultant 19 amino acid substitutions in non-structure proteins 2, 3, 4, 9, 14, 15, spike, open reading frame 3 (ORF3), and membrane proteins with no detectable deletion or insertion. The present study confirmed the pathogenicity of the PEDVPT isolate in conventional post-weaning pigs. Moreover, data regarding viral attenuation and potency of induced antibodies against PEDVPT-P5 identified PEDVPT-P96 as a potential live-attenuated vaccine candidate.

Selective epidemic vaccination under the performant routing algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Bamaarouf, O.; Alweimine, A. Ould Baba; Rachadi, A.; EZ-Zahraouy, H.

2018-04-01

Despite the extensive research on traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the effect of the routing algorithms strategies on the traffic-driven epidemic spreading has not received an adequate attention. It is well known that more performant routing algorithm strategies are used to overcome the congestion problem. However, our main result shows unexpectedly that these algorithms favor the virus spreading more than the case where the shortest path based algorithm is used. In this work, we studied the virus spreading in a complex network using the efficient path and the global dynamic routing algorithms as compared to shortest path strategy. Some previous studies have tried to modify the routing rules to limit the virus spreading, but at the expense of reducing the traffic transport efficiency. This work proposed a solution to overcome this drawback by using a selective vaccination procedure instead of a random vaccination used often in the literature. We found that the selective vaccination succeeded in eradicating the virus better than a pure random intervention for the performant routing algorithm strategies.

Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

McKelvie William R

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Methods Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. Results The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean + 0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Conclusions Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

Configuring the autism epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

2017-01-01

Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...... is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism....

Unsynchronized influenza epidemics in two neighboring subtropical cities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiujuan Tang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the synchrony of influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two neighboring subtropical cities in South China. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data for the period January 2006 to December 2016 were obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health in Hong Kong. The population data were retrieved from the 2011 population censuses. The weekly rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were compared between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Results: Unsynchronized influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen were frequently observed during the study period. Influenza A/H1N1 caused a more severe pandemic in Hong Kong in 2009, but the subsequent seasonal epidemics showed similar magnitudes in both cities. Two influenza A/H3N2 dominant epidemic waves were seen in Hong Kong in 2015, but these epidemics were very minor in Shenzhen. More influenza B epidemics occurred in Shenzhen than in Hong Kong. Conclusions: Influenza epidemics appeared to be unsynchronized between Hong Kong and Shenzhen most of the time. Given the close geographical locations of these two cities, this could be due to the strikingly different age structures of their populations. Keywords: Influenza epidemics, Synchrony, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

KAUST Repository

Paarporn, Keith

2017-07-20

We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

Epidemic Dissemination of a Carbapenem-Resistant Acinetobacter baumannii Clone Carrying armA Two Years After Its First Isolation in an Italian Hospital.

Science.gov (United States)

Milan, Annalisa; Furlanis, Linda; Cian, Franca; Bressan, Raffaela; Luzzati, Roberto; Lagatolla, Cristina; Deiana, Maria Luisa; Knezevich, Anna; Tonin, Enrico; Dolzani, Lucilla

2016-12-01

This study describes the dissemination of a carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) strain in a university hospital in Northeast Italy. Characterization of the outbreak strain was combined with a retrospective analysis of all CRAB isolates collected in the same hospital during the 5 years preceding the outbreak, with the aim of elucidating the origin of the epidemic spread. The outbreak strain was shown to belong to the International Clone II and carry the bla OXA-23 gene, flanked by two ISAba1 sequences in opposite orientation (Tn2006 arrangement). The epidemic clone harbored also the bla OXA-66 allele of the carbapenemase intrinsic to A. baumannii, the determinant of ArmA 16S rRNA methylase and a class 1 integron, with the aacA4, catB8, and aadA1 cassette array. Genotype analysis, performed by macrorestriction analysis and VRBA, revealed that isolates related to outbreak strain had been sporadically collected from inpatients in the 2 years preceding outbreak start. Carriage of bla OXA-66 , armA, and the integron further supported relatedness of these isolates to the outbreak clone. Outbreak initially involved three medical wards, typically hosting elderly patients with a history of prolonged hospitalization. The study highlights the need to adopt strict infection control measures also when CRAB isolation appears to be a sporadic event.

Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2001-06-01

We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2001-01-01

We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks

Draft Genome Sequence of Lactobacillus delbrueckii Strain #22 Isolated from a Patient with Short Bowel Syndrome and Previous d-Lactic Acidosis and Encephalopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Domann, Eugen; Fischer, Florence; Glowatzki, Fabian; Fritzenwanker, Moritz; Hain, Torsten; Zechel-Gran, Silke; Giffhorn-Katz, Susanne; Neubauer, Bernd A

2016-07-28

d-Lactic acidosis with associated encephalopathy caused by overgrowth of intestinal lactic acid bacteria is a rarely diagnosed neurological complication of patients with short bowel syndrome. Here, we report the draft genome sequence of Lactobacillus delbrueckii strain #22 isolated from a patient with short bowel syndrome and previous d-lactic acidosis/encephalopathy. Copyright © 2016 Domann et al.

Extending the durability of cultivar resistance by limiting epidemic growth rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Carolan, Kevin; Helps, Joe; van den Berg, Femke; Bain, Ruairidh; Paveley, Neil; van den Bosch, Frank

2017-09-27

Cultivar resistance is an essential part of disease control programmes in many agricultural systems. The use of resistant cultivars applies a selection pressure on pathogen populations for the evolution of virulence, resulting in loss of disease control. Various techniques for the deployment of host resistance genes have been proposed to reduce the selection for virulence, but these are often difficult to apply in practice. We present a general technique to maintain the effectiveness of cultivar resistance. Derived from classical population genetics theory; any factor that reduces the population growth rates of both the virulent and avirulent strains will reduce selection. We model the specific example of fungicide application to reduce the growth rates of virulent and avirulent strains of a pathogen, demonstrating that appropriate use of fungicides reduces selection for virulence, prolonging cultivar resistance. This specific example of chemical control illustrates a general principle for the development of techniques to manage the evolution of virulence by slowing epidemic growth rates. © 2017 The Author(s).

Susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemics on networks with general infection and cure times

Science.gov (United States)

Cator, E.; van de Bovenkamp, R.; Van Mieghem, P.

2013-06-01

The classical, continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) Markov epidemic model on an arbitrary network is extended to incorporate infection and curing or recovery times each characterized by a general distribution (rather than an exponential distribution as in Markov processes). This extension, called the generalized SIS (GSIS) model, is believed to have a much larger applicability to real-world epidemics (such as information spread in online social networks, real diseases, malware spread in computer networks, etc.) that likely do not feature exponential times. While the exact governing equations for the GSIS model are difficult to deduce due to their non-Markovian nature, accurate mean-field equations are derived that resemble our previous N-intertwined mean-field approximation (NIMFA) and so allow us to transfer the whole analytic machinery of the NIMFA to the GSIS model. In particular, we establish the criterion to compute the epidemic threshold in the GSIS model. Moreover, we show that the average number of infection attempts during a recovery time is the more natural key parameter, instead of the effective infection rate in the classical, continuous-time SIS Markov model. The relative simplicity of our mean-field results enables us to treat more general types of SIS epidemics, while offering an easier key parameter to measure the average activity of those general viral agents.

Hurricanes, climate change and the cholera epidemic in Puerto Rico of 1855-1856.

Science.gov (United States)

Christenson, Bernard

2008-01-01

Hurricanes and global climate changes may affect the environmental factors of cholera dynamics in warm coastal areas, vulnerable to seasonal or sporadic outbreaks. The cholera epidemic of Puerto Rico in 1855-1856 had a profound effect on the Puerto Rican society; but it was not influenced by any climatic events, such as preceding hurricanes or storms based on past documentary sources. Particularly, the environmental non-toxigenic strains of Vibrio Cholerae in Puerto Rican water sources can maintain their pathogenic potential for sporadic or erratic toxigenic cholera outbreaks--if a "perfect storm" ever occurs.

Molecular characterisation of Sporothrix schenckii isolates from humans and cats involved in the sporotrichosis epidemic in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

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Rosani Santos Reis

2009-08-01

Full Text Available An epidemic of sporotrichosis, a subcutaneous mycosis caused by the fungus Sporothrix schenckii, is ongoing in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in which cases of human infection are related to exposure to cats. In an attempt to demonstrate the zoonotic character of this epidemic using molecular methodology, we characterised by DNA-based typing methods 19 human and 25 animal S. schenckii isolates from the epidemic, as well as two control strains. To analyse the isolates, the random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD technique was performed using three different primers, together with DNA fingerprinting using the minisatellite derived from the wild-type phage M13 core-sequence. The analyses generated amplicons with considerable polymorphism. Although isolates exhibited high levels of genetic relatedness, they could be clustered into 5-10 genotypes. The RAPD profiles of epidemic S. schenckii isolates could be distinguished from that of the United States isolate, displaying 20% similarity to each primer and 60% when amplified with the M13 primer. DNA fingerprinting of S. schenckii isolated from the nails (42.8% and the oral cavities (66% of cats were identical to related human samples, suggesting that there is a common infection source for animals and humans in this epidemic. It is clear that cats act as a vehicle for dissemination of S. schenckii.

An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

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Ceccato Pietro

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response. Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization. The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to

Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana

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Vlad Novitsky

2015-12-01

Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

[Observations on the 1348 plague epidemic. Measures taken to combat its tragic effects and avoid epidemic recrudescence].

Science.gov (United States)

Sabbatani, Sergio

2003-03-01

When the "Black Death" swept through Europe from southern France in 1348, in the short space of two years the Europeans were hit by one of the most serious epidemics ever recorded in human history. Yersinia pestis reached Europe by sea, its contamination propagated by the Genoese ships coming from the Crimean port of Jaffa. For the first time the world experienced microbiological unification: East and West were equally involved in the tragedy that spread, and no town remained unscathed during the various epidemic waves which succeeded one another in the following three centuries. The authors of this article describe how and why the epidemic spread, as well as the factors that led to the swift, and often fatal, involment of millions of Europeans. The second part of the article deals with the measures taken by the healthcare authorities of European towns and countries in order to halt the proliferation of the disease. According to the data and observations by authoritative authors, selected among the many who studied the disease that from the 14th century spread like a scourge throughout the known world at the time, the epidemic could have been even more serious, in terms of mortality and morbidity, without the disciplinary and provisional health measures taken. The experience gained in Italy and all over Europe at the time proved useful not only to better manage the epidemics which cyclically broke out, but also to efficiently combat the cholera epidemics of the 19th century. With the 14th century plague epidemic, the Europeans and their political and administrative representatives may well have realized for the very first time that contamination could be combatted by adopting a set of rational, scientific norms - although in practice such rules were mostly inspired by misguided scientific theories. Humankind was no longer alone. A new society was emerging, one that was not going to passively accept the more or less mysterious ways of a superior being of fate. The

The Characteristics of TB Epidemic and TB/HIV Co-Infection Epidemic: A 2007-2013 Retrospective Study in Urumqi, Xinjiang Province, China.

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Wang Wei

Full Text Available This study was aimed to find out epidemiologic characteristic of tuberculosis (TB cases, and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV positive cases among TB patients (TB/HIV co-infection through demographic, temporal, and spatial study in Urumqi.Descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression were applied to identify the epidemiologic characteristics and risk factors of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic. All addresses of each TB case, TB/HIV co-infection case, and administrative street were transformed into geographical coordinate. Subsequently, the geocoded address for 82 streets was transformed into a dot map used as the basis of spatial datasets. In addition, the paper also used quantile map and the spatial scan statistic in order to identify the spatial distribution and spatial clusters of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic.There was a declining trend of the notification rates of TB epidemic from 2007 to 2009, as well as a rising trend from 2010 to 2013. However, the notification rates of TB/HIV co-infection epidemic showed a rising trend from 2007 to 2010, and a declining trend from 2011 to 2013. Moreover, a significant share of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic happened between the age of 15 to 45 years old, indicating an increase in risk of TB and TB/HIV infection. It is worth noting that the risk of HIV infection for male TB patients was 2.947 times (95% CI [2.178, 3.988] than that of female patients. Han ethnicity and Uygur ethnicity in urban region accounted for a large proportion of total TB and TB/HIV co-infection cases. Most of the TB cases of minorities in Urumqi showed a statistically significant increase in risk of HIV infection than Han ethnicity in Urumqi. In addition, the spatial distribution of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic was highly skewed. Most of the local clusters were located in urban area and rural-urban continuum where showed an increase in risk of TB and TB

[Genetic subtype and epidemiological feature of HIV-1 circulating strains among recently infected patients in Fujian province].

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Yongyue; Zhang, Chunyang; Yan, Yansheng; Yan, Pingping; Wu, Shouli

2014-06-01

In order to evaluate the distribution of genetic subtypes and epidemiological feature of HIV-1 circulating strains in Fujian province. Blood samples and epidemiological data were collected from 104 newly infected patients who were distinguished by BED-CEIA methodology, during 2011-2012. Viral sequences(n = 81) of HIV-1 gag, env, and pol segments were amplified by nested PCR. Subtypes B and four Circulating Recombinant Forms, (CRF01_AE, CRF07_BC, CRF08_BC and CRF55_01B) were found in the samples, CRF01_AE(45.68%)and CRF07_BC(35.80%) were the two main HIV-1 strains in Fujian province. Compared with previous data, the proportion of CRF07_BC rose significantly while it gradually decreased in CRF01_AE. Heterosexual contact was still the principal transmission route in Fujian province, but the number of infection among men-who-have-sex-with- men grew rapidly. Results from this study suggested that different subtypes of HIV-1 strain existed in Fujian province. The distribution of subtypes and the mode of transmission were changing with the progress of epidemic. Dynamic monitoring of the molecular epidemiology trends of HIV-1 infection should be enhanced.

Hepatitis A virus strains circulating during 1997-2015 in Campania, a Southern Italy region with periodic outbreaks.

Science.gov (United States)

Costantino, Angela; Coppola, Nicola; Spada, Enea; Bruni, Roberto; Taffon, Stefania; Equestre, Michele; Marcantonio, Cinzia; Sagnelli, Caterina; Dell'Isola, Chiara; Tosone, Grazia; Mascolo, Silvia; Sagnelli, Evangelista; Ciccaglione, Anna Rita

2017-11-01

In Italy, the incidence of hepatitis A has progressively declined over the last 30 years, though not homogeneously throughout the country. In Campania, Southern Italy, high annual incidence rates have been reported and several periodic outbreaks have occurred. To investigate the phylogenetic and epidemiologic relationships among HAV strains circulating in Campania over the period 1997-2015, 87 hepatitis A cases were investigated. The most frequent risk factor was the consumption of raw/undercooked shellfish (75/87, 86.2%). During 1997-2002 most viral strains were subtype IA (16/23, 70%); the phylogenetic pattern suggests that the incidence peaks observed in 2000-2001 had likely been caused by multiple strains. During a large 2004 outbreak, almost all viral variants were subtype IB (38/41, 93%); most of them (22/38, 58%) were recognized to be one of two main strains (differing for just a single nucleotide), the remaining sequences were strictly related variants. In 2014/2015, only IA strains were observed; two phylogenetically related but distinct strains were responsible, respectively, for a small cluster in 2014 and an outbreak in 2015. In each outbreak, several strains unrelated to those responsible for most cases were detected in a minority of patients, documenting a background of sporadic cases occurring even in the course of outbreaks; some of them proved to be identical to strains detected 11-14 years previously. Overall, the data suggest that several related and unrelated HAV strains have endemically circulated over the last 15 years in Campania, with some strains gaining epidemic transmission likely because of a local combination of multiple factors, including inadequate waste water purification and dietary habits. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

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Gabriel E Leventhal

Full Text Available Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

Malaria epidemic and drug resistance, Djibouti.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogier, Christophe; Pradines, Bruno; Bogreau, H; Koeck, Jean-Louis; Kamil, Mohamed-Ali; Mercereau-Puijalon, Odile

2005-02-01

Analysis of Plasmodium falciparum isolates collected before, during, and after a 1999 malaria epidemic in Djibouti shows that, despite a high prevalence of resistance to chloroquine, the epidemic cannot be attributed to a sudden increase in drug resistance of local parasite populations.

Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus 3C-Like Protease-Mediated Nucleocapsid Processing: Possible Link to Viral Cell Culture Adaptability.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaru-Ampornpan, Peera; Jengarn, Juggragarn; Wanitchang, Asawin; Jongkaewwattana, Anan

2017-01-15

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) causes severe diarrhea and high mortality rates in newborn piglets, leading to massive losses to the swine industry worldwide during recent epidemics. Intense research efforts are now focusing on defining viral characteristics that confer a growth advantage, pathogenicity, or cell adaptability in order to better understand the PEDV life cycle and identify suitable targets for antiviral or vaccine development. Here, we report a unique phenomenon of PEDV nucleocapsid (N) cleavage by the PEDV-encoded 3C-like protease (3Cpro) during infection. The identification of the 3Cpro cleavage site at the C terminus of N supported previous observations that PEDV 3Cpro showed a substrate requirement slightly different from that of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) 3Cpro and revealed a greater flexibility in its substrate recognition site. This cleavage motif is present in the majority of cell culture-adapted PEDV strains but is missing in emerging field isolates. Remarkably, reverse-genetics-derived cell culture-adapted PEDV AVCT12 harboring uncleavable N displayed growth retardation in Vero E6-APN cells compared to the wild-type virus. These observations altogether shed new light on the investigation and characterization of the PEDV nucleocapsid protein and its possible link to cell culture adaptation. Recurrent PEDV outbreaks have resulted in enormous economic losses to swine industries worldwide. To gain the upper hand in combating this disease, it is necessary to understand how this virus replicates and evades host immunity. Characterization of viral proteins provides important clues to mechanisms by which viruses survive and spread. Here, we characterized an intriguing phenomenon in which the nucleocapsids of some PEDV strains are proteolytically processed by the virally encoded main protease. Growth retardation in recombinant PEDV carrying uncleavable N suggests a replication advantage provided by the cleavage

Genomic and bioinformatics analyses of HAdV-4vac and HAdV-7vac, two human adenovirus (HAdV) strains that constituted original prophylaxis against HAdV-related acute respiratory disease, a reemerging epidemic disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Purkayastha, Anjan; Su, Jing; McGraw, John; Ditty, Susan E; Hadfield, Ted L; Seto, Jason; Russell, Kevin L; Tibbetts, Clark; Seto, Donald

2005-07-01

Vaccine strains of human adenovirus serotypes 4 and 7 (HAdV-4vac and HAdV-7vac) have been used successfully to prevent adenovirus-related acute respiratory disease outbreaks. The genomes of these two vaccine strains have been sequenced, annotated, and compared with their prototype equivalents with the goals of understanding their genomes for molecular diagnostics applications, vaccine redevelopment, and HAdV pathoepidemiology. These reference genomes are archived in GenBank as HAdV-4vac (35,994 bp; AY594254) and HAdV-7vac (35,240 bp; AY594256). Bioinformatics and comparative whole-genome analyses with their recently reported and archived prototype genomes reveal six mismatches and four insertions-deletions (indels) between the HAdV-4 prototype and vaccine strains, in contrast to the 611 mismatches and 130 indels between the HAdV-7 prototype and vaccine strains. Annotation reveals that the HAdV-4vac and HAdV-7vac genomes contain 51 and 50 coding units, respectively. Neither vaccine strain appears to be attenuated for virulence based on bioinformatics analyses. There is evidence of genome recombination, as the inverted terminal repeat of HAdV-4vac is initially identical to that of species C whereas the prototype is identical to species B1. These vaccine reference sequences yield unique genome signatures for molecular diagnostics. As a molecular forensics application, these references identify the circulating and problematic 1950s era field strains as the original HAdV-4 prototype and the Greider prototype, from which the vaccines are derived. Thus, they are useful for genomic comparisons to current epidemic and reemerging field strains, as well as leading to an understanding of pathoepidemiology among the human adenoviruses.

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

2014-06-15

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

2014-01-01

The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

IncA/C plasmids harboured in serious multidrug-resistant Vibrio cholerae serogroup O139 strains in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ruibai; Yu, Dong; Zhu, Lianhui; Li, Jie; Yue, Junjie; Kan, Biao

2015-03-01

Vibrio cholerae serogroup O139 emerged in 1992 and is one of two major serogroups to have caused cholera epidemics. After 1998, serious multidrug-resistant (MDR) O139 strains quickly became common in China, showing a multidrug resistance profile to eight antibiotics. It is a great threat to public health, and elucidation of its mechanisms of resistance will provide a helpful guide for the clinical treatment and prevention of cholera. In this study, mega-plasmids from MDR V. cholerae O139 strains were identified by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) without enzyme digestion. One plasmid was isolated and sequenced, belonging to the IncA/C family. Ten antibiotic resistance genes were found in the MDR regions, including a blaTEM-20 gene, and these genes endowed the host with resistance to seven antibiotics. This kind of plasmid was positive in 71.2% (198/278) of toxigenic O139 strains, and the rate of plasmid positivity was consistent with the yearly change in MDR rates of these strains. This study reveals an important role of the IncA/C family plasmid in the spread of multiple antibiotic resistance of epidemic V. cholerae serogroup O139 strains, which has recombined with plasmids from different bacterial species and transferred among V. cholerae strains. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. and the International Society of Chemotherapy. All rights reserved.

Can epidemics be non-communicable?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

2015-01-01

This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...... that they are communicable, even if they are not infectious. We need to more critically explore how they might be communicable in specific environments. All diseases with epidemic potential, we argue, should be assumed to be commun icable in a broader sense, and that the underlying medical distinction between infectious...... and noninfectious diseases confuses our understanding of NCD epidemics when these categories are treated as synonymous with ‘communicable’ and ‘noncommunicable’ diseases, respectively. The dominant role accorded to the concept of ‘lifestyle’, with its focus on individual responsibility, is part of the problem...

Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liu, M.; Li, D.; Qin, P.; Liu, C.; Wang, H.; Wang, F.

2015-01-01

Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks

Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis epidemic in São Paulo State, Brazil, 2011

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Norma H. Medina

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC infection is highly contagious and can lead to explosive epidemics. In early February 2011, the Center for Epidemiologic Surveillance of the State of São Paulo Health Secretariat (SES-SP in Brazil received reports of conjunctivitis outbreaks from rural areas of the state that subsequently spread statewide. This report describes that AHC epidemic and its etiologic agent. Data from the Ministry of Health Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SinanNet and the SES-SP epidemiologic surveillance system for conjunctivitis, developed to detect outbreaks, confirm the etiologic agent, and carry out control measures, were analyzed. Eye (conjunctival swab samples were taken from patients with clinical presentation of viral conjunctivitis to perform viral laboratory diagnosis. A total of 1 067 981 conjunctivitis cases were reported to the surveillance system for 2011; there was an increase in the number of cases in epidemiologic weeks 6–26 (summer season versus previous years. Most cases occurred in the metropolitan region of Greater São Paulo. Of 93 collected samples, 57 tested positive for coxsackievirus-A24 (CV-A24, based on virus isolation in tissue-culture cell lines, reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR, and enterovirus sequencing of RT-PCR. The data analysis showed that the fast-spreading etiologic agent of the AHC epidemic that occurred in the summer of 2011 was CV-A24. The AHC epidemic was due to an enterovirus that occurred sporadically, spread rapidly and with great magnitude, and had substantial socioeconomic impact due to the high level of absenteeism at work and school.

Disease spreading with epidemic alert on small-world networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, Xiao-Pu

2007-01-01

Base on two-dimension small-world networks, a susceptible-infected model with epidemic alert is proposed in this Letter. In this model, if some parts of the network are alarmed as dangerous, a fraction of edges between the alarmed parts and others will be removed, and two cases of alerting rules that the degree and frequency of contacts kept unchanged are considered respectively. The numerical simulations show that the spreading velocity is reduced by the accurate and timely epidemic alert, and the more accurate and timely, the stronger the deceleration effect. This model indicates that to broadcast epidemic alert timely is helpful and necessary in the control of epidemic spreading, and in agreement with the general view of epidemic alert. This work is helpful to understand the effects of epidemic alert on disease spreading

Modeling historical tuberculosis epidemics among Canadian First Nations: effects of malnutrition and genetic variation

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Sarah F. Ackley

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Late 19th century epidemics of tuberculosis (TB in Western Canadian First Nations resulted in peak TB mortality rates more than six times the highest rates recorded in Europe. Using a mathematical modeling approach and historical TB mortality time series, we investigate potential causes of high TB mortality and rapid epidemic decline in First Nations from 1885 to 1940. We explore two potential causes of dramatic epidemic dynamics observed in this setting: first, we explore effects of famine prior to 1900 on both TB and population dynamics. Malnutrition is recognized as an individual-level risk factor for TB progression and mortality; its population-level effects on TB epidemics have not been explored previously. Second, we explore effects of heterogeneity in susceptibility to TB in two ways: modeling heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection, and heterogeneity in risk of developing disease once infected. Our results indicate that models lacking famine-related changes in TB parameters or heterogeneity result in an implausibly poor fit to both the TB mortality time series and census data; the inclusion of these features allows for the characteristic decline and rise in population observed in First Nations during this time period and confers improved fits to TB mortality data.

Ten Putative Contributors to the Obesity Epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

McAllister, Emily J.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Keith, Scott W.; Aronne, Louis J.; Barger, Jamie; Baskin, Monica; Benca, Ruth M.; Biggio, Joseph; Boggiano, Mary M.; Eisenmann, Joe C.; Elobeid, Mai; Fontaine, Kevin R.; Gluckman, Peter; Hanlon, Erin C.; Katzmarzyk, Peter; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Redden, David T.; Ruden, Douglas M.; Wang, Chenxi; Waterland, Robert A.; Wright, Suzanne M.; Allison, David B.

2010-01-01

The obesity epidemic is a global issue and shows no signs of abating, while the cause of this epidemic remains unclear. Marketing practices of energy-dense foods and institutionally-driven declines in physical activity are the alleged perpetrators for the epidemic, despite a lack of solid evidence to demonstrate their causal role. While both may contribute to obesity, we call attention to their unquestioned dominance in program funding and public efforts to reduce obesity, and propose several alternative putative contributors that would benefit from equal consideration and attention. Evidence for microorganisms, epigenetics, increasing maternal age, greater fecundity among people with higher adiposity, assortative mating, sleep debt, endocrine disruptors, pharmaceutical iatrogenesis, reduction in variability of ambient temperatures, and intrauterine and intergenerational effects, as contributing factors to the obesity epidemic are reviewed herein. While the evidence is strong for some contributors such as pharmaceutical-induced weight gain, it is still emerging for other reviewed factors. Considering the role of such putative etiological factors of obesity may lead to comprehensive, cause specific, and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this global epidemic. PMID:19960394

Failure to demonstrate experimental vertical transmission of the epidemic strain of Chikungunya virus in Aedes albopictus from La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean

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Marie Vazeille

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Aedes albopictus was responsible for transmission in the first outbreak of chikungunya (CHIK on La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean, in 2005-2006. The magnitude of the outbreak on this island, which had been free of arboviral diseases for over 30 years, as well as the efficiency of Ae. albopictus as the main vector, raises questions about the maintenance of the CHIK virus (CHIKV through vertical transmission mechanisms. Few specimens collected from the field as larvae were found to be infected. In this study, Ae. albopictus originating from La Réunion were orally infected with a blood-meal containing 10(8 pfu/mL of the CHIKV epidemic strain (CHIKV 06.21. Eggs from the first and second gonotrophic cycles were collected and raised to the adult stage. The infectious status of the progeny was checked (i by immunofluorescence on head squashes of individual mosquitoes to detect the presence of viral particles or (ii by quantitative RT-PCR on mosquito pools to detect viral RNA. We analysed a total of 1,675 specimens from the first gonotrophic cycle and 1,709 from the second gonotrophic cycle without detecting any viral particles or viral RNA. These laboratory results are compared to field records.

Vaccine efficacy in senescent mice challenged with recombinant SARS-CoV bearing epidemic and zoonotic spike variants.

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Damon Deming

2006-12-01

Full Text Available In 2003, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV was identified as the etiological agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome, a disease characterized by severe pneumonia that sometimes results in death. SARS-CoV is a zoonotic virus that crossed the species barrier, most likely originating from bats or from other species including civets, raccoon dogs, domestic cats, swine, and rodents. A SARS-CoV vaccine should confer long-term protection, especially in vulnerable senescent populations, against both the 2003 epidemic strains and zoonotic strains that may yet emerge from animal reservoirs. We report the comprehensive investigation of SARS vaccine efficacy in young and senescent mice following homologous and heterologous challenge.Using Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus replicon particles (VRP expressing the 2003 epidemic Urbani SARS-CoV strain spike (S glycoprotein (VRP-S or the nucleocapsid (N protein from the same strain (VRP-N, we demonstrate that VRP-S, but not VRP-N vaccines provide complete short- and long-term protection against homologous strain challenge in young and senescent mice. To test VRP vaccine efficacy against a heterologous SARS-CoV, we used phylogenetic analyses, synthetic biology, and reverse genetics to construct a chimeric virus (icGDO3-S encoding a synthetic S glycoprotein gene of the most genetically divergent human strain, GDO3, which clusters among the zoonotic SARS-CoV. icGD03-S replicated efficiently in human airway epithelial cells and in the lungs of young and senescent mice, and was highly resistant to neutralization with antisera directed against the Urbani strain. Although VRP-S vaccines provided complete short-term protection against heterologous icGD03-S challenge in young mice, only limited protection was seen in vaccinated senescent animals. VRP-N vaccines not only failed to protect from homologous or heterologous challenge, but resulted in enhanced immunopathology with eosinophilic

The levelling off of the obesity epidemic since the year 1999--a review of evidence and perspectives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rokholm, B; Baker, J L; Sørensen, T I A

2010-01-01

obesity trends to identify the driving forces behind the epidemic. It is important to emphasize that the levelling off is not tantamount to calling off the epidemic. Additionally, it is worthwhile to keep in mind that previous stable phases have been followed by further increases in the prevalence...... evidence for heterogeneity in the obesity trends across socioeconomic status (SES) groups was found. The levelling off was less evident in the lower-SES groups. No obvious differences between genders were identified. We discussed potential explanations for a levelling off and the utility of investigating...

Evolution of Sequence Type 4821 Clonal Complex Meningococcal Strains in China from Prequinolone to Quinolone Era, 1972–2013

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Qinglan; Mustapha, Mustapha M.; Chen, Mingliang; Qu, Di; Zhang, Xi; Harrison, Lee H.

2018-01-01

The expansion of hypervirulent sequence type 4821 clonal complex (CC4821) lineage Neisseria meningitidis bacteria has led to a shift in meningococcal disease epidemiology in China, from serogroup A (MenA) to MenC. Knowledge of the evolution and genetic origin of the emergent MenC strains is limited. In this study, we subjected 76 CC4821 isolates collected across China during 1972–1977 and 2005–2013 to phylogenetic analysis, traditional genotyping, or both. We show that successive recombination events within genes encoding surface antigens and acquisition of quinolone resistance mutations possibly played a role in the emergence of CC4821 as an epidemic clone in China. MenC and MenB CC4821 strains have spread across China and have been detected in several countries in different continents. Capsular switches involving serogroups B and C occurred among epidemic strains, raising concerns regarding possible increases in MenB disease, given that vaccines in use in China do not protect against MenB. PMID:29553310

Typing of Canine Parvovirus Strains Circulating in North-East China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, H; Wang, J; Jiang, Y; Cheng, Y; Lin, P; Zhu, H; Han, G; Yi, L; Zhang, S; Guo, L; Cheng, S

2017-04-01

Canine parvovirus (CPV) is highly contagious and is a major cause of haemorrhagic enteritis and myocarditis in dogs. We investigated the genetic variation of emerging CPV strains by sequencing 64 CPV VP2 genes from 216 clinical samples of dogs from Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Shandong and Hebei in 2014. Genetic analysis revealed that CPV-2b was predominant in Hebei and CPV-2a was predominant in the other four provinces. In addition, a CPV-2c strain has emerged in Shandong province. All samples had a Ser-Ala substitution at residue 297 and an Ile-Arg substitution at residue 324. Interestingly, in five separate canine samples, we found a mutation of Gln370 to Arg, until now detected only in isolates from pandas. The phylogenetic analysis showed clear distinctions between epidemic isolates and vaccine strains and between Chinese CPV-2c strains and CPV-2c strains found in other countries. Monitoring recent incidence of CPV strains enables evaluation and implementation of disease control strategies. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Study of 138 Neisseria meningitidis strains isolated from blood or cerebrospinal fluid in Lombardy between 2007 and 2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Daprai

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Haemophilus influenzae type b cause the majority of cases of bacterial septicaemia in children and young adults. Disease epidemiology is evolving rapidly due to the introduction of vaccines and changing in bacterial antibiotic-resistance patterns. (Asymptomatic nasopharyngeal colonization with Neisseria meningitides occurs in 5-10% of adult. The aim of this study was to calculate the frequency of each serogroup of this pathogens involved in invasive infection and to study susceptibility to antibiotics of these strains. Between March 2007 and June 2010 we received, from 43 hospitals of Lombardy, 138 strains of Neisseria meningitidis, from 138 patients aged (2-80yrs. The most frequent serogroup was B (58%, followed by serogroup C (34%, serogroup G (4% and W 135 (2%. Serogroup A end X accounted for 1% of invasive infection, each. We observed a decrease in susceptibility towards penicillin in 38% of strains. In addition we studied, by REP- PCR, genotype of 9 strains selected on the basis of epidemiological data.Among these strains, 3 different clusters according to the 3 small epidemic outbreaks occurred between June and September 2009, were recognised. Seven of these strains, although belonged to the same serogroup, brought about two different clusters. The present findings demonstrated that phenotypic data are not sufficient to define epidemic clusters, therefore molecular genotyping is required.

Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

Science.gov (United States)

Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

2004-09-01

A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

Human enterovirus 71 epidemics: what's next?

Science.gov (United States)

Yip, Cyril C. Y.; Lau, Susanna K. P.; Woo, Patrick C. Y.; Yuen, Kwok-Yung

2013-01-01

Human enterovirus 71 (EV71) epidemics have affected various countries in the past 40 years. EV71 commonly causes hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children, but can result in neurological and cardiorespiratory complications in severe cases. Genotypic changes of EV71 have been observed in different places over time, with the emergence of novel genotypes or subgenotypes giving rise to serious outbreaks. Since the late 1990s, intra- and inter-typic recombination events in EV71 have been increasingly reported in the Asia-Pacific region. In particular, ‘double-recombinant’ EV71 strains belonging to a novel genotype D have been predominant in mainland China and Hong Kong over the last decade, though co-circulating with a minority of other EV71 subgenotypes and coxsackie A viruses. Continuous surveillance and genome studies are important to detect potential novel mutants or recombinants in the near future. Rapid and sensitive molecular detection of EV71 is of paramount importance in anticipating and combating EV71 outbreaks. PMID:24119538

Multiple alignment analysis on phylogenetic tree of the spread of SARS epidemic using distance method

Science.gov (United States)

Amiroch, S.; Pradana, M. S.; Irawan, M. I.; Mukhlash, I.

2017-09-01

Multiple Alignment (MA) is a particularly important tool for studying the viral genome and determine the evolutionary process of the specific virus. Application of MA in the case of the spread of the Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic is an interesting thing because this virus epidemic a few years ago spread so quickly that medical attention in many countries. Although there has been a lot of software to process multiple sequences, but the use of pairwise alignment to process MA is very important to consider. In previous research, the alignment between the sequences to process MA algorithm, Super Pairwise Alignment, but in this study used a dynamic programming algorithm Needleman wunchs simulated in Matlab. From the analysis of MA obtained and stable region and unstable which indicates the position where the mutation occurs, the system network topology that produced the phylogenetic tree of the SARS epidemic distance method, and system area networks mutation.

Timing of the HIV-1 subtype C epidemic in Ethiopia based on early virus strains and subsequent virus diversification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Abebe, A.; Lukashov, V. V.; Pollakis, G.; Kliphuis, A.; Fontanet, A. L.; Goudsmit, J.; Rinke de Wit, T. F.

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To trace the introduction of HIV-1 subtype C into Ethiopia based on virus diversification during the epidemic. DESIGN: A set of 474 serum samples obtained in Ethiopia in 1982-1985 was tested for HIV-1. HIV-1 env gp120 V3 and gag or pol regions were sequenced and analysed together with

A simple model for behaviour change in epidemics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brauer Fred

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background People change their behaviour during an epidemic. Infectious members of a population may reduce the number of contacts they make with other people because of the physical effects of their illness and possibly because of public health announcements asking them to do so in order to decrease the number of new infections, while susceptible members of the population may reduce the number of contacts they make in order to try to avoid becoming infected. Methods We consider a simple epidemic model in which susceptible and infectious members respond to a disease outbreak by reducing contacts by different fractions and analyze the effect of such contact reductions on the size of the epidemic. We assume constant fractional reductions, without attempting to consider the way in which susceptible members might respond to information about the epidemic. Results We are able to derive upper and lower bounds for the final size of an epidemic, both for simple and staged progression models. Conclusions The responses of uninfected and infected individuals in a disease outbreak are different, and this difference affects estimates of epidemic size.

Tracking the Origin and Deciphering the Phylogenetic Relationship of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus in Ecuador

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maritza Barrera

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In 2010, new Chinese strains of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV, clinically more severe than the classical strains, emerged. These strains were spread to United States in 2013 through an intercontinental transmission from China with further spreading across the world, evidencing the emergent nature of these strains. In the present study, an analysis of PEDV field sequences from Ecuador was conducted by comparing all the PEDV S gene sequences available in the GenBank database. Phylogenetic comparisons and Bayesian phylogeographic inference based on complete S gene sequences were also conducted to track the origin and putative route of PEDV. The sequence from the PED-outbreak in Ecuador was grouped into the clade II of PEDV genogroup 2a together with other sequences of isolates from Mexico, Canada, and United States. The phylogeographic study revealed the emergence of the Chinese PEDV strains, followed by spreading to US in 2013, from US to Korea, and later the introduction of PEDV to Canada, Mexico, and Ecuador directly from the US. The sources of imports of live swine in Ecuador in 2014 were mainly from Chile and US. Thus, this movement of pigs is suggested as the main way for introducing PEDV to Ecuador.

Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

2009-01-01

Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

HIV epidemics in Shenzhen and Chongqing, China.

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Shu Yang

Full Text Available Men who have sex with men (MSM and heterosexuals are the populations with the fastest growing HIV infection rates in China. We characterize the epidemic growth and age patterns between these two routes from 2004 to 2015 in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China.Data were downloaded from the National HIV/ AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. For the new HIV diagnoses of heterosexuals and MSM in both cities, we estimated the growth rates by fitting different sub-exponential models. Heat maps are used to show their age patterns. We used histograms to compare these patterns by birth cohort.The MSM epidemics grew significantly in both cities. Chongqing experienced quadratic growth in HIV reported cases with an estimated growth rate of 0.086 per week and a "deceleration rate" of 0.673. HIV reported cases of MSM in Shenzhen grew even more drastically with a growth rate of 0.033 per week and "deceleration rate" of 0.794. The new infections are mainly affecting the ages of 18 to 30 in Chongqing and ages of 20 to 35 in Shenzhen. They peaked in early 1990's and mid-1990's birth cohorts in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively. The HIV epidemic among heterosexuals grew rapidly in both cities. The growth rates were estimated as 0.02 and 0.028 in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively whereas the "deceleration rates" were 0.878 and 0.790 in these two places. It affected mostly aged 18 to 75 in males and 18 to 65 in females in Chongqing and aged 18 to 45 in males and 18 to 50 in females in Shenzhen in 2015. In Chongqing, the heterosexual female epidemics display two peaks in HIV diagnoses in the birth cohorts of early 1950's and early 1980's, with heterosexual male epidemics peaked in early 1940's and early 1960's. The heterosexual male and female epidemics display higher rates in the birth cohort 1940-1960, than the birth cohort 1960-1990. It peaked in birth cohorts of 1950's and 1980's in Shenzhen.We revealed striking differences in epidemic growth

Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P; Masuda, Naoki

2017-09-08

Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P.; Masuda, Naoki

2017-09-01

Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

Viral epidemics in a cell culture: novel high resolution data and their interpretation by a percolation theory based model.

Science.gov (United States)

Gönci, Balázs; Németh, Valéria; Balogh, Emeric; Szabó, Bálint; Dénes, Ádám; Környei, Zsuzsanna; Vicsek, Tamás

2010-12-20

Because of its relevance to everyday life, the spreading of viral infections has been of central interest in a variety of scientific communities involved in fighting, preventing and theoretically interpreting epidemic processes. Recent large scale observations have resulted in major discoveries concerning the overall features of the spreading process in systems with highly mobile susceptible units, but virtually no data are available about observations of infection spreading for a very large number of immobile units. Here we present the first detailed quantitative documentation of percolation-type viral epidemics in a highly reproducible in vitro system consisting of tens of thousands of virtually motionless cells. We use a confluent astroglial monolayer in a Petri dish and induce productive infection in a limited number of cells with a genetically modified herpesvirus strain. This approach allows extreme high resolution tracking of the spatio-temporal development of the epidemic. We show that a simple model is capable of reproducing the basic features of our observations, i.e., the observed behaviour is likely to be applicable to many different kinds of systems. Statistical physics inspired approaches to our data, such as fractal dimension of the infected clusters as well as their size distribution, seem to fit into a percolation theory based interpretation. We suggest that our observations may be used to model epidemics in more complex systems, which are difficult to study in isolation.

Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Paul

2008-09-01

Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

A field guide to pandemic, epidemic and sporadic clones of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Monecke, Stefan

2011-04-01

In recent years, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) have become a truly global challenge. In addition to the long-known healthcare-associated clones, novel strains have also emerged outside of the hospital settings, in the community as well as in livestock. The emergence and spread of virulent clones expressing Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) is an additional cause for concern. In order to provide an overview of pandemic, epidemic and sporadic strains, more than 3,000 clinical and veterinary isolates of MRSA mainly from Germany, the United Kingdom, Ireland, France, Malta, Abu Dhabi, Hong Kong, Australia, Trinidad & Tobago as well as some reference strains from the United States have been genotyped by DNA microarray analysis. This technique allowed the assignment of the MRSA isolates to 34 distinct lineages which can be clearly defined based on non-mobile genes. The results were in accordance with data from multilocus sequence typing. More than 100 different strains were distinguished based on affiliation to these lineages, SCCmec type and the presence or absence of PVL. These strains are described here mainly with regard to clinically relevant antimicrobial resistance- and virulence-associated markers, but also in relation to epidemiology and geographic distribution. The findings of the study show a high level of biodiversity among MRSA, especially among strains harbouring SCCmec IV and V elements. The data also indicate a high rate of genetic recombination in MRSA involving SCC elements, bacteriophages or other mobile genetic elements and large-scale chromosomal replacements.

A Field Guide to Pandemic, Epidemic and Sporadic Clones of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus

Science.gov (United States)

Monecke, Stefan; Coombs, Geoffrey; Shore, Anna C.; Coleman, David C.; Akpaka, Patrick; Borg, Michael; Chow, Henry; Ip, Margaret; Jatzwauk, Lutz; Jonas, Daniel; Kadlec, Kristina; Kearns, Angela; Laurent, Frederic; O'Brien, Frances G.; Pearson, Julie; Ruppelt, Antje; Schwarz, Stefan; Scicluna, Elizabeth; Slickers, Peter; Tan, Hui-Leen; Weber, Stefan; Ehricht, Ralf

2011-01-01

In recent years, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) have become a truly global challenge. In addition to the long-known healthcare-associated clones, novel strains have also emerged outside of the hospital settings, in the community as well as in livestock. The emergence and spread of virulent clones expressing Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) is an additional cause for concern. In order to provide an overview of pandemic, epidemic and sporadic strains, more than 3,000 clinical and veterinary isolates of MRSA mainly from Germany, the United Kingdom, Ireland, France, Malta, Abu Dhabi, Hong Kong, Australia, Trinidad & Tobago as well as some reference strains from the United States have been genotyped by DNA microarray analysis. This technique allowed the assignment of the MRSA isolates to 34 distinct lineages which can be clearly defined based on non-mobile genes. The results were in accordance with data from multilocus sequence typing. More than 100 different strains were distinguished based on affiliation to these lineages, SCCmec type and the presence or absence of PVL. These strains are described here mainly with regard to clinically relevant antimicrobial resistance- and virulence-associated markers, but also in relation to epidemiology and geographic distribution. The findings of the study show a high level of biodiversity among MRSA, especially among strains harbouring SCCmec IV and V elements. The data also indicate a high rate of genetic recombination in MRSA involving SCC elements, bacteriophages or other mobile genetic elements and large-scale chromosomal replacements. PMID:21494333

Epidemic threshold in directed networks

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Cong; Wang, Huijuan; Van Mieghem, Piet

2013-12-01

Epidemics have so far been mostly studied in undirected networks. However, many real-world networks, such as the online social network Twitter and the world wide web, on which information, emotion, or malware spreads, are directed networks, composed of both unidirectional links and bidirectional links. We define the directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links. The epidemic threshold τc for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic is lower bounded by 1/λ1 in directed networks, where λ1, also called the spectral radius, is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. In this work, we propose two algorithms to generate directed networks with a given directionality ξ. The effect of ξ on the spectral radius λ1, principal eigenvector x1, spectral gap (λ1-λ2), and algebraic connectivity μN-1 is studied. Important findings are that the spectral radius λ1 decreases with the directionality ξ, whereas the spectral gap and the algebraic connectivity increase with the directionality ξ. The extent of the decrease of the spectral radius depends on both the degree distribution and the degree-degree correlation ρD. Hence, in directed networks, the epidemic threshold is larger and a random walk converges to its steady state faster than that in undirected networks with the same degree distribution.

Whole genome PCR scanning reveals the syntenic genome structure of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae strains in the O1/O139 population.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo Pang

Full Text Available Vibrio cholerae is commonly found in estuarine water systems. Toxigenic O1 and O139 V. cholerae strains have caused cholera epidemics and pandemics, whereas the nontoxigenic strains within these serogroups only occasionally lead to disease. To understand the differences in the genome and clonality between the toxigenic and nontoxigenic strains of V. cholerae serogroups O1 and O139, we employed a whole genome PCR scanning (WGPScanning method, an rrn operon-mediated fragment rearrangement analysis and comparative genomic hybridization (CGH to analyze the genome structure of different strains. WGPScanning in conjunction with CGH revealed that the genomic contents of the toxigenic strains were conservative, except for a few indels located mainly in mobile elements. Minor nucleotide variation in orthologous genes appeared to be the major difference between the toxigenic strains. rrn operon-mediated rearrangements were infrequent in El Tor toxigenic strains tested using I-CeuI digested pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE analysis and PCR analysis based on flanking sequence of rrn operons. Using these methods, we found that the genomic structures of toxigenic El Tor and O139 strains were syntenic. The nontoxigenic strains exhibited more extensive sequence variations, but toxin coregulated pilus positive (TCP+ strains had a similar structure. TCP+ nontoxigenic strains could be subdivided into multiple lineages according to the TCP type, suggesting the existence of complex intermediates in the evolution of toxigenic strains. The data indicate that toxigenic O1 El Tor and O139 strains were derived from a single lineage of intermediates from complex clones in the environment. The nontoxigenic strains with non-El Tor type TCP may yet evolve into new epidemic clones after attaining toxigenic attributes.

Epidemic Network Failures in Optical Transport Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

2013-01-01

This paper presents a failure propagation model for transport networks which are affected by epidemic failures. The network is controlled using the GMPLS protocol suite. The Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model is investigated and new signaling functionality of GMPLS to support...

Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

2015-09-01

Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

Science.gov (United States)

Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

2013-06-01

Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

Science.gov (United States)

Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

2013-01-01

Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

Effects of local and global network connectivity on synergistic epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Broder-Rodgers, David; Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.

2015-12-01

Epidemics in networks can be affected by cooperation in transmission of infection and also connectivity between nodes. An interplay between these two properties and their influence on epidemic spread are addressed in the paper. A particular type of cooperative effects (called synergy effects) is considered, where the transmission rate between a pair of nodes depends on the number of infected neighbors. The connectivity effects are studied by constructing networks of different topology, starting with lattices with only local connectivity and then with networks that have both local and global connectivity obtained by random bond-rewiring to nodes within a certain distance. The susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were found to exhibit several interesting effects: (i) for epidemics with strong constructive synergy spreading in networks with high local connectivity, the bond rewiring has a negative role in epidemic spread, i.e., it reduces invasion probability; (ii) in contrast, for epidemics with destructive or weak constructive synergy spreading on networks of arbitrary local connectivity, rewiring helps epidemics to spread; (iii) and, finally, rewiring always enhances the spread of epidemics, independent of synergy, if the local connectivity is low.

Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christel Kamp

Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

Ultrasound elastography of the lower uterine segment in women with a previous cesarean section: Comparison of in-/ex-vivo elastography versus tensile-stress-strain-rupture analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Seliger, Gregor; Chaoui, Katharina; Lautenschläger, Christine; Jenderka, Klaus-Vitold; Kunze, Christian; Hiller, Grit Gesine Ruth; Tchirikov, Michael

2018-06-01

The purpose of this study was to assess, if the biomechanical properties of the lower uterine segment (LUS) in women with a previous cesarean section (CS) can be determined by ultrasound (US) elastography. The first aim was to establish an ex-vivo LUS tensile-stress-strain-rupture(break point) analysis with the possibility of simultaneously using US elastography. The second aim was to investigate the relationship between measurement results of LUS stiffness using US elastography in-/ex-vivo with results of tensile-stress-strain-rupture analysis, and to compare different US elastography LUS-stiffness-measurement methods ex-vivo. An explorative experimental, in-/ex-vivo US study of women with previous CS was conducted. LUS elasticity was measured by point Shear Wave Elastography (pSWE) and bidimensional Shear-Wave-Elastography (2D-SWE) first in-vivo during preoperative examination within 24 h before repeat CS (including resection of the thinnest part of the LUS = uterine scar area during CS), second within 1 h after operation during the ex-vivo experiment, followed by tensile-stress-strain-rupture analysis. Pearson's correlation coefficient and scatter plots, Bland-Altman plots and paired T-tests, were used. Thirty three women were included in the study; elastography measurements n = 1412. The feasibility of ex-vivo assessment of LUS by quantitative US elastography using pSWE and 2D-SWE to detect stiffness of LUS was demonstrated. The strongest correlation with tensile-stress-strain analysis was found in the US elastography examination carried out with 2D-SWE (0.78, p break point - as a surrogate marker for the risk of rupture of the LUS after CS - is linearly dependent on the thickness of the LUS in the scar area (Coefficient of correlation: 0.79, p even at less stroke/strain than would be expected by their thickness. This study confirms that US elastography can help in determining viscoelastic properties of the LUS in women with a previous CS. The

Abia State HIV epidemic and response: challenges and prospects.

Science.gov (United States)

Onyeonoro, Ugochukwu Uchenna; Emelumadu, Obiageli Fidelia; Nwamoh, Uche Ngozi; Ukegbu, Andrew Ugwunna; Okafor, Godwin Oc

2014-11-13

Since the first seroprevalence survey in 1999, the HIV prevalence in Abia State has increased from 1.8% to 7.3% in 2010. The state is currently experiencing a generalized epidemic, with most transmission occurring through heterosexual low-risk sex. Drivers of the epidemic include low knowledge of HIV prevention, low risk perception, predominantly male factor-driven risky sexual behavior, and low condom use. This study reviewed the state HIV epidemic trend in relation to response, sought to identify the gaps between the epidemic and response, and recommended measures to strengthen the state response.

Optimal Control of Interdependent Epidemics in Complex Networks

OpenAIRE

Chen, Juntao; Zhang, Rui; Zhu, Quanyan

2017-01-01

Optimal control of interdependent epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. We first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's equilibrium states by categorizing them into three classes, and deriving their stability conditions. The designed control strategy globally optimizes the trade-off between the control cost and the severity of epidemics in the network. A gradient descent algorithm based on a fixed point itera...

Percolation and epidemics in random clustered networks

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Joel C.

2009-08-01

The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease dynamics. A number of authors have studied percolation or epidemics in clustered networks, but the networks often contain preferential contacts in high degree nodes. We introduce a class of random clustered networks and a class of random unclustered networks with the same preferential mixing. Percolation in the clustered networks reduces the component sizes and increases the epidemic threshold compared to the unclustered networks.

Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

2009-01-01

We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by adaptive routing strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Han-Xin; Wang, Zhen

2016-01-01

The design of routing strategies for traffic-driven epidemic spreading has received increasing attention in recent years. In this paper, we propose an adaptive routing strategy that incorporates topological distance with local epidemic information through a tunable parameter h. In the case where the traffic is free of congestion, there exists an optimal value of routing parameter h, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be more effectively controlled by adaptive routing, compared to that of the static shortest path routing scheme. Besides, we find that the optimal value of h can greatly relieve the traffic congestion in the case of finite node-delivering capacity. We expect our work to provide new insights into the effects of dynamic routings on traffic-driven epidemic spreading.

Identification and development of a promising novel mumps vaccine candidate strain.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Yan; Ma, Shaohui; Liu, Longding; Zhao, Hongling; Wang, Lichun; Jiang, Li; Xie, Zhongping; Dong, Chenghong; Li, Qihan

2010-12-01

Mumps epidemics are usually caused by airborne transmission of mumps virus (MuV) and have high morbidity in non-immunized children. Epidemiological studies in many regions of China show that the genotype F viral strain is the most prevalent. However, the genotype A strain is currently used to prepare vaccines. Regional epidemiological MuV data suggest a significant application for the development of live attenuated mumps vaccines targeting specific genotypes. This article reports the isolation and culture of a genotype F MuV candidate strain that could be used to prepare a live attenuated mumps vaccine. This strain is shown to have good immunological efficacy and stability in neurovirulence evaluations. This work should facilitate the implementation of mumps vaccination in mainland China by targeting the most prevalent MuV genotype, genotype F. Copyright © 2010 Institut Pasteur. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Immunogenicity, reactogenicity, and safety of a P1.7b,4 strain-specific serogroup B meningococcal vaccine given to preteens.

Science.gov (United States)

Hosking, Jamie; Rasanathan, Kumanan; Mow, Florina Chan; Jackson, Catherine; Martin, Diana; O'Hallahan, Jane; Oster, Philipp; Ypma, Ellen; Reid, Stewart; Aaberge, Ingeborg; Crengle, Sue; Stewart, Joanna; Lennon, Diana

2007-11-01

New Zealand (NZ) has experienced a Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B epidemic since 1991. MeNZB, a strain-specific outer membrane vesicle vaccine made using an NZ epidemic strain isolate, NZ98/254 (B:4:P1.7b,4), from two manufacturing sites, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH) and Chiron Vaccines (CV; now Novartis), was evaluated for safety, immunogenicity, and reactogenicity in this observer-blind trial with 8- to 12-year-old children. In year 1, cohort A (n = 302) was randomized 4:1 for receipt of NIPH-MeNZB or MenBvac (Norwegian parent vaccine strain 44/76; B:15:P1.7,16). In year 2, cohort B (n = 313) was randomized 4:1 for receipt of CV-MeNZB or NIPH-MeNZB. Participants all received three vaccinations 6 weeks apart. Local and systemic reactions were monitored for 7 days. Seroresponse was defined as a fourfold or greater rise in the serum bactericidal antibody titer from the baseline titer as measured by a serum bactericidal assay. Those with baseline titers of /=1:8 to serorespond. Intention-to-treat (ITT) and per protocol (PP) analyses are presented. In cohort A, 74% (ITT) and 73% (PP) of NIPH-MeNZB recipients demonstrated seroresponses against NZ98/254 after three doses, versus 32% (ITT and PP) of MenBvac recipients. In cohort B, seroresponses against NZ98/254 after three doses occurred in 79% (ITT and PP) of CV-MeNZB versus 75% (ITT) and 76% (PP) of NIPH-MeNZB recipients. Vaccines were tolerable, with no vaccine-related serious adverse events. In conclusion, the NZ strain meningococcal B vaccine (MeNZB) from either manufacturing site was immunogenic against New Zealand epidemic vaccine strain meningococci with no safety concerns when given in three doses to these 8- to 12-year-old children.

Dispersion of the HIV-1 Epidemic in Men Who Have Sex with Men in the Netherlands: A Combined Mathematical Model and Phylogenetic Analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela Bezemer

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The HIV-1 subtype B epidemic amongst men who have sex with men (MSM is resurgent in many countries despite the widespread use of effective combination antiretroviral therapy (cART. In this combined mathematical and phylogenetic study of observational data, we aimed to find out the extent to which the resurgent epidemic is the result of newly introduced strains or of growth of already circulating strains.As of November 2011, the ATHENA observational HIV cohort of all patients in care in the Netherlands since 1996 included HIV-1 subtype B polymerase sequences from 5,852 patients. Patients who were diagnosed between 1981 and 1995 were included in the cohort if they were still alive in 1996. The ten most similar sequences to each ATHENA sequence were selected from the Los Alamos HIV Sequence Database, and a phylogenetic tree was created of a total of 8,320 sequences. Large transmission clusters that included ≥10 ATHENA sequences were selected, with a local support value ≥ 0.9 and median pairwise patristic distance below the fifth percentile of distances in the whole tree. Time-varying reproduction numbers of the large MSM-majority clusters were estimated through mathematical modeling. We identified 106 large transmission clusters, including 3,061 (52% ATHENA and 652 Los Alamos sequences. Half of the HIV sequences from MSM registered in the cohort in the Netherlands (2,128 of 4,288 were included in 91 large MSM-majority clusters. Strikingly, at least 54 (59% of these 91 MSM-majority clusters were already circulating before 1996, when cART was introduced, and have persisted to the present. Overall, 1,226 (35% of the 3,460 diagnoses among MSM since 1996 were found in these 54 long-standing clusters. The reproduction numbers of all large MSM-majority clusters were around the epidemic threshold value of one over the whole study period. A tendency towards higher numbers was visible in recent years, especially in the more recently introduced clusters

Complete genetic characterization of a Brazilian dengue virus type 3 strain isolated from a fatal outcome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marize Pereira Miagostovich

2006-05-01

Full Text Available We have determined the complete nucleotide and the deduced amino acid sequences of Brazilian dengue virus type 3 (DENV-3 from a dengue case with fatal outcome, which occurred during an epidemic in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2002. This constitutes the first complete genetic characterization of a Brazilian DENV-3 strain since its introduction into the country in 2001. DENV-3 was responsible for the most severe dengue epidemic in the state, based on the highest number of reported cases and on the severity of clinical manifestations and deaths reported.

Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

OpenAIRE

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2001-01-01

We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below which the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are pron...

[Epidemic of Staphylococcus aureus nosocomial infections resistant to methicillin in a maternity ward].

Science.gov (United States)

Le Coq, M; Simon, I; Sire, C; Tissot-Guerraz, F; Fournier, L; Aho, S; Noblot, G; Reverdy, M E; Françoise, M

2001-02-01

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) nosocomial infections frequently occur in the hospital environment, but their incidence is less often observed in neonates. In the present investigation, seventeen cases were recorded over a nine-week period (two cases per week). Pulsed field gradient gel electrophoresis confirmed the clonal character of the strain. The hypothesis of manually-transmitted infection due to contamination from multiple sources was reinforced by the fact the epidemic persisted in spite of the elimination of the main human infectious source and an absence of risk factors determined by the case-control study. The role of environmental factors in the persistence of this outbreak of MRSA infection has been considered.

Stemming the obesity epidemic : a tantalizing prospect

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Veerman, J Lennert; Barendregt, Jan J; van Beeck, Ed F; Seidell, Jacob C; Mackenbach, Johan P

OBJECTIVE: Obesity is a growing problem worldwide, but there are no good methods to assess the future course of the epidemic and the potential influence of interventions. We explore the behavior change needed to stop the obesity epidemic in the U.S. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: We modeled the

Taxing Soda: Strategies for Dealing with the Obesity and Diabetes Epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Maa, John

2016-01-01

Over the past several decades, the United States has been experiencing a twin epidemic of obesity and type 2 diabetes. Recently, advocacy efforts to tax sugary drinks, place warning labels on soda, improve nutritional labeling, and reduce sugar overconsumption have swept across the nation to address public health concerns from sugary drinks that strain our nation's health-care resources. In this article, the historical and scientific framework of this public health policy and valuable lessons learned from implementation efforts thus far will be examined to shape the next steps forward for the movement. Additional goals of this article are to share a surgeon's perspective about trends in bariatric surgery and the link between obesity and type 2 diabetes as a result of peripheral insulin resistance.

Recent results on the spatiotemporal modelling and comparative analysis of Black Death and bubonic plague epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Christakos, G.; Olea, R.A.; Yu, H.-L.

2007-01-01

Background: This work demonstrates the importance of spatiotemporal stochastic modelling in constructing maps of major epidemics from fragmentary information, assessing population impacts, searching for possible etiologies, and performing comparative analysis of epidemics. Methods: Based on the theory previously published by the authors and incorporating new knowledge bases, informative maps of the composite space-time distributions were generated for important characteristics of two major epidemics: Black Death (14th century Western Europe) and bubonic plague (19th-20th century Indian subcontinent). Results: The comparative spatiotemporal analysis of the epidemics led to a number of interesting findings: (1) the two epidemics exhibited certain differences in their spatiotemporal characteristics (correlation structures, trends, occurrence patterns and propagation speeds) that need to be explained by means of an interdisciplinary effort; (2) geographical epidemic indicators confirmed in a rigorous quantitative manner the partial findings of isolated reports and time series that Black Death mortality was two orders of magnitude higher than that of bubonic plague; (3) modern bubonic plague is a rural disease hitting harder the small villages in the countryside whereas Black Death was a devastating epidemic that indiscriminately attacked large urban centres and the countryside, and while the epidemic in India lasted uninterruptedly for five decades, in Western Europe it lasted three and a half years; (4) the epidemics had reverse areal extension features in response to annual seasonal variations. Temperature increase at the end of winter led to an expansion of infected geographical area for Black Death and a reduction for bubonic plague, reaching a climax at the end of spring when the infected area in Western Europe was always larger than in India. Conversely, without exception, the infected area during winter was larger for the Indian bubonic plague; (5) during the

Zika Virus Strains Potentially Display Different Infectious Profiles in Human Neural Cells

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yannick Simonin

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The recent Zika virus (ZIKV epidemic has highlighted the poor knowledge on its physiopathology. Recent studies showed that ZIKV of the Asian lineage, responsible for this international outbreak, causes neuropathology in vitro and in vivo. However, two African lineages exist and the virus is currently found circulating in Africa. The original African strain was also suggested to be neurovirulent but its laboratory usage has been criticized due to its multiple passages. In this study, we compared the French Polynesian (Asian ZIKV strain to an African strain isolated in Central African Republic and show a difference in infectivity and cellular response between both strains in human neural stem cells and astrocytes. Consistently, this African strain led to a higher infection rate and viral production, as well as stronger cell death and anti-viral response. Our results highlight the need to better characterize the physiopathology and predict neurological impairment associated with African ZIKV.

Evaluating Subcriticality during the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wayne T A Enanoria

Full Text Available The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak is the largest and most widespread to date. In order to estimate ongoing transmission in the affected countries, we estimated the weekly average number of secondary cases caused by one individual infected with Ebola throughout the infectious period for each affected West African country using a stochastic hidden Markov model fitted to case data from the World Health Organization. If the average number of infections caused by one Ebola infection is less than 1.0, the epidemic is subcritical and cannot sustain itself. The epidemics in Liberia and Sierra Leone have approached subcriticality at some point during the epidemic; the epidemic in Guinea is ongoing with no evidence that it is subcritical. Response efforts to control the epidemic should continue in order to eliminate Ebola cases in West Africa.

Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

Science.gov (United States)

Vecchi, G. A.; Munoz, A. G.; Thomson, M. C.; Stewart-Ibarra, A. M.; Chourio, X.; Nájera, P.; Moran, Z.; Yang, X.

2017-12-01

Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

Environmental Burkholderia cenocepacia Strain Enhances Fitness by Serial Passages during Long-Term Chronic Airways Infection in Mice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alessandra Bragonzi

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Burkholderia cenocepacia is an important opportunistic pathogen in cystic fibrosis (CF patients, and has also been isolated from natural environments. In previous work, we explored the virulence and pathogenic potential of environmental B. cenocepacia strains and demonstrated that they do not differ from clinical strains in some pathogenic traits. Here, we investigated the ability of the environmental B. cenocepacia Mex1 strain, isolated from the maize rhizosphere, to persist and increase its virulence after serial passages in a mouse model of chronic infection. B. cenocepacia Mex1 strain, belonging to the recA lineage IIIA, was embedded in agar beads and challenged into the lung of C57Bl/6 mice. The mice were sacrificed after 28 days from infection and their lungs were tested for bacterial loads. Agar beads containing the pool of B. cenocepacia colonies from the four sequential passages were used to infect the mice. The environmental B. cenocepacia strain showed a low incidence of chronic infection after the first passage; after the second, third and fourth passages in mice, its ability to establish chronic infection increased significantly and progressively up to 100%. Colonial morphology analysis and genetic profiling of the Mex1-derived clones recovered after the fourth passage from infected mice revealed that they were indistinguishable from the challenged strain both at phenotypic and genetic level. By testing the virulence of single clones in the Galleria mellonella infection model, we found that two Mex1-derived clones significantly increased their pathogenicity compared to the parental Mex1 strain and behaved similarly to the clinical and epidemic B. cenocepacia LMG16656T. Our findings suggest that serial passages of the environmental B. cenocepacia Mex1 strain in mice resulted in an increased ability to determine chronic lung infection and the appearance of clonal variants with increased virulence in non-vertebrate hosts.

Viral epidemics in a cell culture: novel high resolution data and their interpretation by a percolation theory based model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Balázs Gönci

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Because of its relevance to everyday life, the spreading of viral infections has been of central interest in a variety of scientific communities involved in fighting, preventing and theoretically interpreting epidemic processes. Recent large scale observations have resulted in major discoveries concerning the overall features of the spreading process in systems with highly mobile susceptible units, but virtually no data are available about observations of infection spreading for a very large number of immobile units. Here we present the first detailed quantitative documentation of percolation-type viral epidemics in a highly reproducible in vitro system consisting of tens of thousands of virtually motionless cells. We use a confluent astroglial monolayer in a Petri dish and induce productive infection in a limited number of cells with a genetically modified herpesvirus strain. This approach allows extreme high resolution tracking of the spatio-temporal development of the epidemic. We show that a simple model is capable of reproducing the basic features of our observations, i.e., the observed behaviour is likely to be applicable to many different kinds of systems. Statistical physics inspired approaches to our data, such as fractal dimension of the infected clusters as well as their size distribution, seem to fit into a percolation theory based interpretation. We suggest that our observations may be used to model epidemics in more complex systems, which are difficult to study in isolation.

The Obesity Epidemic

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

2011-07-18

Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

Epidemic spreading with activity-driven awareness diffusion on multiplex network.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Quantong; Lei, Yanjun; Jiang, Xin; Ma, Yifang; Huo, Guanying; Zheng, Zhiming

2016-04-01

There has been growing interest in exploring the interplay between epidemic spreading with human response, since it is natural for people to take various measures when they become aware of epidemics. As a proper way to describe the multiple connections among people in reality, multiplex network, a set of nodes interacting through multiple sets of edges, has attracted much attention. In this paper, to explore the coupled dynamical processes, a multiplex network with two layers is built. Specifically, the information spreading layer is a time varying network generated by the activity driven model, while the contagion layer is a static network. We extend the microscopic Markov chain approach to derive the epidemic threshold of the model. Compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the method shows high accuracy for the prediction of the epidemic threshold. Besides, taking different spreading models of awareness into consideration, we explored the interplay between epidemic spreading with awareness spreading. The results show that the awareness spreading can not only enhance the epidemic threshold but also reduce the prevalence of epidemics. When the spreading of awareness is defined as susceptible-infected-susceptible model, there exists a critical value where the dynamical process on the awareness layer can control the onset of epidemics; while if it is a threshold model, the epidemic threshold emerges an abrupt transition with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5. Moreover, we also find that temporal changes in the topology hinder the spread of awareness which directly affect the epidemic threshold, especially when the awareness layer is threshold model. Given that the threshold model is a widely used model for social contagion, this is an important and meaningful result. Our results could also lead to interesting future research about the different time-scales of structural changes in multiplex networks.

Epidemic spreading with activity-driven awareness diffusion on multiplex network

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Quantong; Lei, Yanjun; Jiang, Xin; Ma, Yifang; Huo, Guanying; Zheng, Zhiming

2016-04-01

There has been growing interest in exploring the interplay between epidemic spreading with human response, since it is natural for people to take various measures when they become aware of epidemics. As a proper way to describe the multiple connections among people in reality, multiplex network, a set of nodes interacting through multiple sets of edges, has attracted much attention. In this paper, to explore the coupled dynamical processes, a multiplex network with two layers is built. Specifically, the information spreading layer is a time varying network generated by the activity driven model, while the contagion layer is a static network. We extend the microscopic Markov chain approach to derive the epidemic threshold of the model. Compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the method shows high accuracy for the prediction of the epidemic threshold. Besides, taking different spreading models of awareness into consideration, we explored the interplay between epidemic spreading with awareness spreading. The results show that the awareness spreading can not only enhance the epidemic threshold but also reduce the prevalence of epidemics. When the spreading of awareness is defined as susceptible-infected-susceptible model, there exists a critical value where the dynamical process on the awareness layer can control the onset of epidemics; while if it is a threshold model, the epidemic threshold emerges an abrupt transition with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5. Moreover, we also find that temporal changes in the topology hinder the spread of awareness which directly affect the epidemic threshold, especially when the awareness layer is threshold model. Given that the threshold model is a widely used model for social contagion, this is an important and meaningful result. Our results could also lead to interesting future research about the different time-scales of structural changes in multiplex networks.

Effects of epidemic threshold definition on disease spread statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Lagorio, C.; Migueles, M. V.; Braunstein, L. A.; López, E.; Macri, P. A.

2009-03-01

We study the statistical properties of SIR epidemics in random networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations that reach or exceed a minimum size sc. Using percolation theory to calculate the average fractional size of an epidemic, we find that the strength of the spanning link percolation cluster P∞ is an upper bound to . For small values of sc, P∞ is no longer a good approximation, and the average fractional size has to be computed directly. We find that the choice of sc is generally (but not always) guided by the network structure and the value of T of the disease in question. If the goal is to always obtain P∞ as the average epidemic size, one should choose sc to be the typical size of the largest percolation cluster at the critical percolation threshold for the transmissibility. We also study Q, the probability that an SIR propagation reaches the epidemic mass sc, and find that it is well characterized by percolation theory. We apply our results to real networks (DIMES and Tracerouter) to measure the consequences of the choice sc on predictions of average outcome sizes of computer failure epidemics.

The influence of school holiday timing on epidemic impact.

Science.gov (United States)

Eames, K T D

2014-09-01

The impact of reactive school closure on an epidemic is uncertain, since it is not clear how an unplanned closure will affect social mixing patterns. The effect of school holidays on social mixing patterns is better understood. Here, we use mathematical models to explore the influence of the timing of school holidays on the final size and peak incidence of an influenza-like epidemic. A well-timed holiday can reduce the impact of an epidemic, in particular substantially reducing an epidemic's peak. Final size and peak incidence cannot both be minimized: a later holiday is optimal for minimizing the final size, while an earlier holiday minimizes peak incidence. Using social mixing data from the UK, we estimated that, had the 2009 influenza epidemic not been interrupted by the school summer holidays, the final size would have been about 20% larger and the peak about 170% higher.

The narcissism epidemic is dead : Long live the narcissism epidemic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wetzel, Eunike; Brown, Anna; Hill, Patrick; Chung, J.M.H.; Robins, R.W.; Roberts, B.W.

2017-01-01

Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (N1990s = 1,166; N2000s = 33,647; N2010s = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific

Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ángel G. Muñoz

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015–2016 zika virus (ZIKV epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME, finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

epidemic teach us?

African Journals Online (AJOL)

frequently brings shame, fear and guilt: dealing with this for some will begin a process of .... 'AZT treatment will have a limited effect on the epidemic, as we are targeting ... others to make the decisions that control my life. It is ironic that a society ...

Dynamical Interplay between Awareness and Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

2013-09-01

We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

2013-09-20

We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

Disease-induced resource constraints can trigger explosive epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Böttcher, L.; Woolley-Meza, O.; Araújo, N. A. M.; Herrmann, H. J.; Helbing, D.

2015-11-01

Advances in mathematical epidemiology have led to a better understanding of the risks posed by epidemic spreading and informed strategies to contain disease spread. However, a challenge that has been overlooked is that, as a disease becomes more prevalent, it can limit the availability of the capital needed to effectively treat those who have fallen ill. Here we use a simple mathematical model to gain insight into the dynamics of an epidemic when the recovery of sick individuals depends on the availability of healing resources that are generated by the healthy population. We find that epidemics spiral out of control into “explosive” spread if the cost of recovery is above a critical cost. This can occur even when the disease would die out without the resource constraint. The onset of explosive epidemics is very sudden, exhibiting a discontinuous transition under very general assumptions. We find analytical expressions for the critical cost and the size of the explosive jump in infection levels in terms of the parameters that characterize the spreading process. Our model and results apply beyond epidemics to contagion dynamics that self-induce constraints on recovery, thereby amplifying the spreading process.

[A prognostic model of a cholera epidemic].

Science.gov (United States)

Boev, B V; Bondarenko, V M; Prokop'eva, N V; San Román, R T; Raygoza-Anaya, M; García de Alba, R

1994-01-01

A new model for the prognostication of cholera epidemic on the territory of a large city is proposed. This model reflects the characteristic feature of contacting infection by sensitive individuals due to the preservation of Vibrio cholerae in their water habitat. The mathematical model of the epidemic quantitatively reflects the processes of the spread of infection by kinetic equations describing the interaction of the streams of infected persons, the causative agents and susceptible persons. The functions and parameters of the model are linked with the distribution of individuals according to the duration of the incubation period and infectious process, as well as the period of asymptomatic carrier state. The computer realization of the model by means of IBM PC/AT made it possible to study the cholera epidemic which took place in Mexico in 1833. The verified model of the cholera epidemic was used for the prognostication of the possible spread of this infection in Guadalajara, taking into account changes in the epidemiological situation and the size of the population, as well as improvements in sanitary and hygienic conditions, in the city.

2,500-year Evolution of the Term Epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Martin-Granel, Estelle

2006-01-01

The term epidemic (from the Greek epi [on] plus demos [people]), first used by Homer, took its medical meaning when Hippocrates used it as the title of one of his famous treatises. At that time, epidemic was the name given to a collection of clinical syndromes, such as coughs or diarrheas, occurring and propagating in a given period at a given location. Over centuries, the form and meaning of the term have changed. Successive epidemics of plague in the Middle Ages contributed to the definition of an epidemic as the propagation of a single, well-defined disease. The meaning of the term continued to evolve in the 19th-century era of microbiology. Its most recent semantic evolution dates from the last quarter of the 20th century, and this evolution is likely to continue in the future. PMID:16707055

The epidemic of Tuberculosis on vaccinated population

Science.gov (United States)

Syahrini, Intan; Sriwahyuni; Halfiani, Vera; Meurah Yuni, Syarifah; Iskandar, Taufiq; Rasudin; Ramli, Marwan

2017-09-01

Tuberculosis is an infectious disease which has caused a large number of mortality in Indonesia. This disease is caused by Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Besides affecting lung, this disease also affects other organs such as lymph gland, intestine, kidneys, uterus, bone, and brain. This article discusses the epidemic of tuberculosis through employing the SEIR model. Here, the population is divided into four compartments which are susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. The susceptible population is further grouped into two which are vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. The behavior of the epidemic is investigated through analysing the equilibrium of the model. The result shows that administering vaccine to the susceptible population contributes to the reduction of the tuberculosis epidemic rate.

Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

2012-08-01

Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

Epidemic Spread in Networks Induced by Deactivation Mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Xiaoling; Wu Xiao; Zhang Duanming; Li Zhihao; Liang Fang; Wang Xiaoyu

2008-01-01

We have studied the topology and epidemic spreading behaviors on the networks in which deactivation mechanism and long-rang connection are coexisted. By means of numerical simulation, we find that the clustering coefficient C and the Pearson correlation coefficient r decrease with increasing long-range connection μ and the topological state of the network changes into that of BA model at the end (when μ = 1). For the Susceptible-Infect-Susceptible model of epidemics, the epidemic threshold can reach maximum value at μ = 0.4 and presents two different variable states around μ = 0.4

The need for data science in epidemic modelling. Comment on: "Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review" by Gerardo Chowell et al.

Science.gov (United States)

Danon, Leon; Brooks-Pollock, Ellen

2016-09-01

In their review, Chowell et al. consider the ability of mathematical models to predict early epidemic growth [1]. In particular, they question the central prediction of classical differential equation models that the number of cases grows exponentially during the early stages of an epidemic. Using examples including HIV and Ebola, they argue that classical models fail to capture key qualitative features of early growth and describe a selection of models that do capture non-exponential epidemic growth. An implication of this failure is that predictions may be inaccurate and unusable, highlighting the need for care when embarking upon modelling using classical methodology. There remains a lack of understanding of the mechanisms driving many observed epidemic patterns; we argue that data science should form a fundamental component of epidemic modelling, providing a rigorous methodology for data-driven approaches, rather than trying to enforce established frameworks. The need for refinement of classical models provides a strong argument for the use of data science, to identify qualitative characteristics and pinpoint the mechanisms responsible for the observed epidemic patterns.

Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence ...

Continuous Morbidity Registration at Dutch Sentinel Stations 2007.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Donker, G.A.

2007-01-01

The flu epidemic in the winter of 2007/2008 was less severe but lasted longer than the epidemic of the previous year. Unexpectedly, 27% of the AH1N1 influenza viruses found last year proved to be resistant to the antiviral drug oseltamivir (Tamiflu). AH1N1 was the most common strain found during the

Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

Science.gov (United States)

Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Gu, Changgui; Xu, Jinshan

2017-10-01

The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lyle Fearnley

2010-12-01

Full Text Available In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part of what he called “epidemic intelligence.” Langmuir developed the practice of disease surveillance during an unprecedented moment in which the threat of biological warfare brought civil defense experts and epidemiologists together around a common problem. In this paper, I describe how Langmuir navigated this world, experimenting with new techniques and rationales of epidemic control. Ultimately, I argue, Langmuir′s experiments resulted in a set of techniques and infrastructures – a system of epidemic intelligence – that transformed the epidemic as an object of human art.

Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

OpenAIRE

Zhang, C.

2015-01-01

Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

The spread of HIV in Pakistan: bridging of the epidemic between populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad R Khanani

Full Text Available In the last two decades, 'concentrated epidemics' of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV have established in several high risk groups in Pakistan, including Injecting Drug Users (IDUs and among men who have sex with men (MSM. To explore the transmission patterns of HIV infection in these major high-risk groups of Pakistan, 76 HIV samples were analyzed from MSM, their female spouses and children, along with 26 samples from a previously studied cohort of IDUs. Phylogenetic analysis of HIV gag gene sequences obtained from these samples indicated a substantial degree of intermixing between the IDU and MSM populations, suggesting a bridging of HIV infection from IDUs, via MSM, to the MSM spouses and children. HIV epidemic in Pakistan is now spreading to the female spouses and offspring of bisexual MSM. HIV control and awareness programs must be refocused to include IDUs, MSM, as well as bisexual MSM, and their spouses and children.

Simulated epidemics in an empirical spatiotemporal network of 50,185 sexual contacts.

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Luis E C Rocha

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Sexual contact patterns, both in their temporal and network structure, can influence the spread of sexually transmitted infections (STI. Most previous literature has focused on effects of network topology; few studies have addressed the role of temporal structure. We simulate disease spread using SI and SIR models on an empirical temporal network of sexual contacts in high-end prostitution. We compare these results with several other approaches, including randomization of the data, classic mean-field approaches, and static network simulations. We observe that epidemic dynamics in this contact structure have well-defined, rather high epidemic thresholds. Temporal effects create a broad distribution of outbreak sizes, even if the per-contact transmission probability is taken to its hypothetical maximum of 100%. In general, we conclude that the temporal correlations of our network accelerate outbreaks, especially in the early phase of the epidemics, while the network topology (apart from the contact-rate distribution slows them down. We find that the temporal correlations of sexual contacts can significantly change simulated outbreaks in a large empirical sexual network. Thus, temporal structures are needed alongside network topology to fully understand the spread of STIs. On a side note, our simulations further suggest that the specific type of commercial sex we investigate is not a reservoir of major importance for HIV.

Timing and utilization of antenatal care services in Liberia: Understanding the pre-Ebola epidemic context.

Science.gov (United States)

Luginaah, Isaac N; Kangmennaang, Joseph; Fallah, Mosoka; Dahn, Bernice; Kateh, Francis; Nyenswah, Tolbert

2016-07-01

In Liberia, 75% of those who died from 2014 Ebola epidemic were women and the effects of this gruelling epidemic were more severely felt by pregnant women. This immediately raised fears about the long-term impacts of the epidemic on maternal and child health. As part of a larger study, this paper uses Andersen's behavioural model of health care utilization and Goffman's stigma theory to explain the timing and utilization of maternal health services before the outbreak of the Ebola epidemic as a background to the potential long-term effects on maternal health. We conducted survival and multiple regression analysis using the 2007 (N = 3524) and 2013 (N = 5127) Liberia's Demographic and Health Survey (LDHS) data. Our sample consisted of women of reproductive age (15-49 years) that had given birth in the last five years preceding the survey year. The findings show that from 2007 to 2013, there was an overall improvement in the timing of first antenatal care (ANC) visits (TR = 0.92, p delivery with skilled birth attendants. The results also show county and regional disparities in the utilization of ANC services with South Eastern A region emerging as a relatively vulnerable place. Also, access to ANC services defined by distance to a health facility strongly predicted utilization. We argue that the Ebola epidemic likely eroded many of the previous gains in maternal health care, and may have left a lingering negative effect on the access and utilization of maternal health services in the long-term. The study makes relevant policy recommendations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A geographic information system for the study of past epidemics: The 1705 epidemic in Martigues (Bouches-du-Rhône, France

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Stéfan Tzortzis

2012-01-01

Full Text Available At the beginning of the 18th century, the Provence region was hit by several severe epidemics whose causes are still not clearly understood.To draw up epidemic profiles and to identify the pathogenic agents concerned, we constituted a large onomastic database and built ageographic information system for Martigues, a medium-sized community in the south of France. The cross-linking of epidemiological,spatial and demographical data allows us to propose a new diagnosis for the epidemic which reached Martigues in the autumn of 1705.

[Chikungunya, La Réunion and Mayotte, 2005-2006: an epidemic without a story?].

Science.gov (United States)

Flahault, Antoine; Aumont, Gilles; Boisson, Véronique; de Lamballerile, Xavier; Favier, François; Fontenille, Didier; Gaüzère, Bernard-Alex; Journeaux, Sophie; Lotteau, Vincent; Paupy, Christophe; Sanquer, Marie-Anne; Setbon, Michel

2007-01-01

Many triggering factors for onset of emerging infectious diseases are now recognised, such as: globalisation, demographic increase, population movements, international trade, urbanisation, forest destruction, climate changes, loss in biodiversity, and extreme life conditions such as poverty, famine and war. Epidemic burden is often leading to disasters, in terms of human losses, as well as economic, political or social consequences. These outbreaks may jeopardize within a few weeks or months, industry, trade, or tourism. While dengue and its most severe forms (hemorrhagic and shock syndrome) is spreading all over the tropical world, another arbovirosis, chikungunya disease dramatically spread in Indian Ocean islands where 30 to 75% of population were infected in 2005 and 2006, and then extended its progression towards India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Malaysia, Maldives islands with more than a million people infected with the East-African strain, replacing the former Asian strain which was known to prevail more than 30 years ago in India. Patients experience sequelae with disability, work loss, and rarely severe outcome recently identified in La Réunion and Mayotte (French overseas territories). No country, no part of the world may consider itself as protected against such events. However, consequences of emerging or re-emerging diseases are more and more unacceptable when they impact the poorest countries of the world. Viruses, bacteria, as well as wild animals, birds, or arthropods are not stopped by borders. It is time now to promote barriers against infectious diseases, including prevention, anticipation, disease surveillance and research. This is not only for humanitarian reasons, but also for contributing to a sustainable development with equity for worldwide population. This report presents comprehensive actions taken in 2006 for tracing the epidemic and mobilise research, as requested to the task force set up by the Prime Minister by March 20, 2006.

Surveillance and vaccine effectiveness of an influenza epidemic predominated by vaccine-mismatched influenza B/Yamagata-lineage viruses in Taiwan, 2011-12 season.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi-Chun Lo

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The 2011-12 trivalent influenza vaccine contains a strain of influenza B/Victoria-lineage viruses. Despite free provision of influenza vaccine among target populations, an epidemic predominated by influenza B/Yamagata-lineage viruses occurred during the 2011-12 season in Taiwan. We characterized this vaccine-mismatched epidemic and estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE. METHODS: Influenza activity was monitored through sentinel viral surveillance, emergency department (ED and outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI syndromic surveillance, and case-based surveillance of influenza with complications and deaths. VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza was evaluated through a case-control study on ILI patients enrolled into sentinel viral surveillance. Logistic regression was used to estimate VE adjusted for confounding factors. RESULTS: During July 2011-June 2012, influenza B accounted for 2,382 (72.5% of 3,285 influenza-positive respiratory specimens. Of 329 influenza B viral isolates with antigen characterization, 287 (87.2% were B/Yamagata-lineage viruses. Proportions of ED and outpatient visits being ILI-related increased from November 2011 to January 2012. Of 1,704 confirmed cases of influenza with complications, including 154 (9.0% deaths, influenza B accounted for 1,034 (60.7% of the confirmed cases and 103 (66.9% of the deaths. Reporting rates of confirmed influenza with complications and deaths were 73.5 and 6.6 per 1,000,000, respectively, highest among those aged ≥65 years, 50-64 years, 3-6 years, and 0-2 years. Adjusted VE was -31% (95% CI: -80, 4 against all influenza, 54% (95% CI: 3, 78 against influenza A, and -66% (95% CI: -132, -18 against influenza B. CONCLUSIONS: This influenza epidemic in Taiwan was predominated by B/Yamagata-lineage viruses unprotected by the 2011-12 trivalent vaccine. The morbidity and mortality of this vaccine-mismatched epidemic warrants careful consideration of introducing a

Evolutionary changes in the capsid P2 region of Australian strains of the norovirus GII.Pe_GII.4.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruggink, Leesa D; Moselen, Jean M; Roberts, Jason A; Marshall, John A

2017-07-01

The protruding (P) 2 region of the norovirus capsid is thought to include hypervariable sites involved in receptor binding. This study examines the changes that occurred in the P2 region of GII.Pe_GII.4 norovirus in the course of its evolution from a precursor phase (2008-2009), to an intermediate phase (2010) and finally to an epidemic phase (2012-2015). Twenty-two P2 region amino acid (aa) sequences (166 aa long) from all phases of the evolution of the virus were compared and the changes analysed.Results/key findings. Twenty sites in the P2 region underwent aa change and of these, 10 corresponded to previously proposed hypervariable sites and 10 to novel hypervariable sites. It was notable that aa changes at two sites, X and Y, only emerged as the epidemic phase progressed. 3D computer modelling of the P2 region indicated that neither X nor Y were in the uppermost 'crown', but further down in the 'neck' portion. The location of X and Y and the nature of aa change at Y suggest these sites were important in enhancing the structural integrity of the capsid, which in turn may have facilitated the longer term viability of the virus. The current study helps establish the validity of previously proposed hypervariable sites in the P2 region as well as indicating new ones. It also provides quantitative and qualitative data on how these sites changed over the evolutionary history of a particular norovirus strain.

Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

CERN Document Server

Allen, Linda J S

2015-01-01

This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

Characterization of Erwinia amylovora strains from different host plants using repetitive-sequences PCR analysis, and restriction fragment length polymorphism and short-sequence DNA repeats of plasmid pEA29.

Science.gov (United States)

Barionovi, D; Giorgi, S; Stoeger, A R; Ruppitsch, W; Scortichini, M

2006-05-01

The three main aims of the study were the assessment of the genetic relationship between a deviating Erwinia amylovora strain isolated from Amelanchier sp. (Maloideae) grown in Canada and other strains from Maloideae and Rosoideae, the investigation of the variability of the PstI fragment of the pEA29 plasmid using restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis and the determination of the number of short-sequence DNA repeats (SSR) by DNA sequence analysis in representative strains. Ninety-three strains obtained from 12 plant genera and different geographical locations were examined by repetitive-sequences PCR using Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus, BOX and Repetitive Extragenic Palindromic primer sets. Upon the unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean analysis, a deviating strain from Amelanchier sp. was analysed using amplified ribosomal DNA restriction analysis (ARDRA) analysis and the sequencing of the 16S rDNA gene. This strain showed 99% similarity to other E. amylovora strains in the 16S gene and the same banding pattern with ARDRA. The RFLP analysis of pEA29 plasmid using MspI and Sau3A restriction enzymes showed a higher variability than that previously observed and no clear-cut grouping of the strains was possible. The number of SSR units reiterated two to 12 times. The strains obtained from pear orchards showing for the first time symptoms of fire blight had a low number of SSR units. The strains from Maloideae exhibit a wider genetic variability than previously thought. The RFLP analysis of a fragment of the pEA29 plasmid would not seem a reliable method for typing E. amylovora strains. A low number of SSR units was observed with first epidemics of fire blight. The current detection techniques are mainly based on the genetic similarities observed within the strains from the cultivated tree-fruit crops. For a more reliable detection of the fire blight pathogen also in wild and ornamentals Rosaceous plants the genetic

Is the New Heroin Epidemic Really New? Racializing Heroin.

Science.gov (United States)

Bowser, Benjamin; Fullilove, Robert; Word, Carl

2017-01-01

Heroin abuse as an outcome of the prior use of painkillers increased rapidly over the past decade. This "new epidemic" is unique because the new heroin users are primarily young White Americans in rural areas of virtually every state. This commentary argues that the painkiller-to-heroin transition could not be the only cause of heroin use on such a scale and that the new and old heroin epidemics are linked. The social marketing that so successfully drove the old heroin epidemic has innovated and expanded due to the use of cell-phones, text messaging and the "dark web" which requires a Tor browser, and software that allows one to communicate with encrypted sites without detection. Central city gentrification has forced traffickers to take advantage of larger and more lucrative markets. A second outcome is that urban black and Latino communities are no longer needed as heroin stages areas for suburban and exurban illicit drug distribution. Drug dealing can be done directly in predominantly white suburbs and rural areas without the accompanying violence associated with the old epidemic. Denial of the link between the new and old heroin epidemics racially segregates heroin users and more proactive prevention and treatment in the new epidemic than in the old. It also cuts off a half-century of knowledge about the supply-side of heroin drug dealing and the inevitable public policy measures that will have to be implemented to effectively slow and stop both the old and new epidemic. Copyright © 2016 National Medical Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Epidemics and rumours in complex networks

CERN Document Server

Draief, Moez

2009-01-01

Information propagation through peer-to-peer systems, online social systems, wireless mobile ad hoc networks and other modern structures can be modelled as an epidemic on a network of contacts. Understanding how epidemic processes interact with network topology allows us to predict ultimate course, understand phase transitions and develop strategies to control and optimise dissemination. This book is a concise introduction for applied mathematicians and computer scientists to basic models, analytical tools and mathematical and algorithmic results. Mathematical tools introduced include coupling

Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by use of the efficient routing protocol

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Han-Xin; Wu, Zhi-Xi

2014-01-01

Despite extensive work on the interplay between traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the control of epidemic spreading by routing strategies has not received adequate attention. In this paper, we study the impact of an efficient routing protocol on epidemic spreading. In the case of infinite node-delivery capacity, where the traffic is free of congestion, we find that that there exist optimal values of routing parameter, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by fine tuning the routing scheme. Moreover, we find that an increase in the average network connectivity and the emergence of traffic congestion can suppress the epidemic outbreak. (paper)

Canine distemper virus infection among wildlife before and after the epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Suzuki, Junko; Nishio, Yohei; Kameo, Yuki; Terada, Yutaka; Kuwata, Ryusei; Shimoda, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Kazuo; Maeda, Ken

2015-11-01

In 2007-2008, a canine distemper virus (CDV) epidemic occurred among wild animals in Wakayama Prefecture, Japan, and many mammals, including the wild boar and deer, were infected. In this study, CDV prevalence among wild animals was surveyed before and after the epidemic. At first, an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with horseradish peroxidase-conjugated protein A/G was established to detect CDV antibodies in many mammalian species. This established ELISA was available for testing dogs, raccoons and raccoon dogs as well as virus-neutralization test. Next, a serological survey of wild mammalians was conducted, and it was indicated that many wild mammalians, particularly raccoons, were infected with CDV during the epidemic, but few were infected before and after the epidemic. On the other hand, many raccoon dogs died during the epidemic, but CDV remained prevalent in the remaining population, and a small epidemic occurred in raccoon dogs in 2012-2013. These results indicated that the epidemic of 2007-2008 may have been intensified by transmission to raccoons.

Mycobacterium leprae genomes from a British medieval leprosy hospital: towards understanding an ancient epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Mendum, Tom A; Schuenemann, Verena J; Roffey, Simon; Taylor, G Michael; Wu, Huihai; Singh, Pushpendra; Tucker, Katie; Hinds, Jason; Cole, Stewart T; Kierzek, Andrzej M; Nieselt, Kay; Krause, Johannes; Stewart, Graham R

2014-04-08

Leprosy has afflicted humankind throughout history leaving evidence in both early texts and the archaeological record. In Britain, leprosy was widespread throughout the Middle Ages until its gradual and unexplained decline between the 14th and 16th centuries. The nature of this ancient endemic leprosy and its relationship to modern strains is only partly understood. Modern leprosy strains are currently divided into 5 phylogenetic groups, types 0 to 4, each with strong geographical links. Until recently, European strains, both ancient and modern, were thought to be exclusively type 3 strains. However, evidence for type 2 strains, a group normally associated with Central Asia and the Middle East, has recently been found in archaeological samples in Scandinavia and from two skeletons from the medieval leprosy hospital (or leprosarium) of St Mary Magdalen, near Winchester, England. Here we report the genotypic analysis and whole genome sequencing of two further ancient M. leprae genomes extracted from the remains of two individuals, Sk14 and Sk27, that were excavated from 10th-12th century burials at the leprosarium of St Mary Magdalen. DNA was extracted from the surfaces of bones showing osteological signs of leprosy. Known M. leprae polymorphisms were PCR amplified and Sanger sequenced, while draft genomes were generated by enriching for M. leprae DNA, and Illumina sequencing. SNP-typing and phylogenetic analysis of the draft genomes placed both of these ancient strains in the conserved type 2 group, with very few novel SNPs compared to other ancient or modern strains. The genomes of the two newly sequenced M. leprae strains group firmly with other type 2F strains. Moreover, the M. leprae strain most closely related to one of the strains, Sk14, in the worldwide phylogeny is a contemporaneous ancient St Magdalen skeleton, vividly illustrating the epidemic and clonal nature of leprosy at this site. The prevalence of these type 2 strains indicates that type 2F strains

Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

Science.gov (United States)

Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

2018-02-01

Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

MOSES: A Matlab-based open-source stochastic epidemic simulator.

Science.gov (United States)

Varol, Huseyin Atakan

2016-08-01

This paper presents an open-source stochastic epidemic simulator. Discrete Time Markov Chain based simulator is implemented in Matlab. The simulator capable of simulating SEQIJR (susceptible, exposed, quarantined, infected, isolated and recovered) model can be reduced to simpler models by setting some of the parameters (transition probabilities) to zero. Similarly, it can be extended to more complicated models by editing the source code. It is designed to be used for testing different control algorithms to contain epidemics. The simulator is also designed to be compatible with a network based epidemic simulator and can be used in the network based scheme for the simulation of a node. Simulations show the capability of reproducing different epidemic model behaviors successfully in a computationally efficient manner.

Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

2014-09-01

In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

The fastest spreader in SIS epidemics on networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

He, Z.; Van Mieghem, P.F.A.

2018-01-01

Identifying the fastest spreaders in epidemics on a network helps to ensure an efficient spreading. By ranking the average spreading time for different spreaders, we show that the fastest spreader may change with the effective infection rate of a SIS epidemic process, which means that the

Fishing for lobsters indirectly increases epidemics in sea urchins

Science.gov (United States)

Lafferty, Kevin D.

2004-01-01

Two ecological paradigms, the trophic cascade and the host-density threshold in disease, interact in the kelp-forest ecosystem to structure the community. To investigate what happens when a trophic cascade pushes a host population over a host-threshold density, I analyzed a 20-year data set of kelp forest communities at 16 sites in the region of the Channel Islands National Park, California, USA. Historically, lobsters, and perhaps other predators, kept urchin populations at low levels and kelp forests developed a community-level trophic cascade. In geographic areas where the main predators on urchins were fished, urchin populations increased to the extent that they overgrazed algae and starvation eventually limited urchin-population growth. Despite the limitation of urchin population size by food availability, urchin densities, at times, well exceeded the host-density threshold for epidemics. An urchin-specific bacterial disease entered the region after 1992 and acted as a density-dependent mortality source. Dense populations were more likely to experience epidemics and suffer higher mortality. Disease did not reduce the urchin population at a site to the density that predators previously did. Therefore, disease did not fully replace predators in the trophic cascade. These results indicate how fishing top predators can indirectly favor disease transmission in prey populations.

MEM spectral analysis for predicting influenza epidemics in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Sumi, Ayako; Kamo, Ken-ichi

2012-03-01

The prediction of influenza epidemics has long been the focus of attention in epidemiology and mathematical biology. In this study, we tested whether time series analysis was useful for predicting the incidence of influenza in Japan. The method of time series analysis we used consists of spectral analysis based on the maximum entropy method (MEM) in the frequency domain and the nonlinear least squares method in the time domain. Using this time series analysis, we analyzed the incidence data of influenza in Japan from January 1948 to December 1998; these data are unique in that they covered the periods of pandemics in Japan in 1957, 1968, and 1977. On the basis of the MEM spectral analysis, we identified the periodic modes explaining the underlying variations of the incidence data. The optimum least squares fitting (LSF) curve calculated with the periodic modes reproduced the underlying variation of the incidence data. An extension of the LSF curve could be used to predict the incidence of influenza quantitatively. Our study suggested that MEM spectral analysis would allow us to model temporal variations of influenza epidemics with multiple periodic modes much more effectively than by using the method of conventional time series analysis, which has been used previously to investigate the behavior of temporal variations in influenza data.

Resolving epidemic network failures through differentiated repair times

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Manzano, Marc

2015-01-01

In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network pe...... assigninglower repair times among the network nodes. They believe that the event-driven simulation model can be highly beneficialfor network providers, since it could be used during the network planning process for facilitating cost-effective networksurvivability design.......In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network...... performance improvement via differentiated repair times. First, theyidentify the most vulnerable and the most strategic nodes in the network. Then, via extensive event-driven simulations theyshow that strategic placement of resources for improved failure recovery has better performance than randomly...

Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

2014-01-01

Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

Vaccination intervention on epidemic dynamics in networks

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Zhou, Tao

2013-02-01

Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on Watts-Strogatz small-world, Barabási-Albert scale-free, and random scale-free networks. The epidemic threshold and prevalence are analyzed. For small-world networks, the effective vaccination intervention is suggested and its influence on the threshold and prevalence is analyzed. For scale-free networks, the threshold is found to be strongly dependent both on the effective vaccination rate and on the connectivity distribution. Moreover, so long as vaccination is effective, it can linearly decrease the epidemic prevalence in small-world networks, whereas for scale-free networks it acts exponentially. These results can help in adopting pragmatic treatment upon diseases in structured populations.

Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

KAUST Repository

Peng, Chengbin; Wang, Shengbin; Shi, Meixia; Jin, Xiaogang

2011-01-01

In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Genetic surveillance detects both clonal and epidemic transmission of malaria following enhanced intervention in Senegal.

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Rachel Daniels

Full Text Available Using parasite genotyping tools, we screened patients with mild uncomplicated malaria seeking treatment at a clinic in Thiès, Senegal, from 2006 to 2011. We identified a growing frequency of infections caused by genetically identical parasite strains, coincident with increased deployment of malaria control interventions and decreased malaria deaths. Parasite genotypes in some cases persisted clonally across dry seasons. The increase in frequency of genetically identical parasite strains corresponded with decrease in the probability of multiple infections. Further, these observations support evidence of both clonal and epidemic population structures. These data provide the first evidence of a temporal correlation between the appearance of identical parasite types and increased malaria control efforts in Africa, which here included distribution of insecticide treated nets (ITNs, use of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs for malaria detection, and deployment of artemisinin combination therapy (ACT. Our results imply that genetic surveillance can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of disease control strategies and assist a rational global malaria eradication campaign.

Improving epidemic malaria planning, preparedness and response in Southern Africa. Report on the 1st Southern African Regional Epidemic Outlook Forum, Harare, Zimbabwe, 26-29 September, 2004.

Science.gov (United States)

DaSilva, Joaquim; Garanganga, Brad; Teveredzi, Vonai; Marx, Sabine M; Mason, Simon J; Connor, Stephen J

2004-10-22

Malaria is a major public health problem for countries in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). While the endemicity of malaria varies enormously across this region, many of the countries have districts that are prone to periodic epidemics, which can be regional in their extent, and to resurgent outbreaks that are much more localized. These epidemics are frequently triggered by climate anomalies and often follow periods of drought. Many parts of Southern Africa have suffered rainfall deficit over the past three years and countries expect to see increased levels of malaria when the rains return to more 'normal' levels. Problems with drug and insecticide resistance are documented widely and the region contains countries with the highest rates of HIV prevalence to be found anywhere in the world. Consequently, many communities are vulnerable to severe disease outcomes should epidemics occur. The SADC countries have adopted the Abuja targets for Roll Back Malaria in Africa, which include improved epidemic detection and response, i.e., that 60% of epidemics will be detected within two weeks of onset, and 60% of epidemics will be responded to within two weeks of detection. The SADC countries recognize that to achieve these targets they need improved information on where and when to look for epidemics. The WHO integrated framework for improved early warning and early detection of malaria epidemics has been recognized as a potentially useful tool for epidemic preparedness and response planning. Following evidence of successful adoption and implementation of this approach in Botswana, the SADC countries, the WHO Southern Africa Inter-Country Programme on Malaria Control, and the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre decided to organize a regional meeting where countries could gather to assess their current control status and community vulnerability, consider changes in epidemic risk, and develop a detailed plan of action for the forthcoming 2004-2005 season. The

Comparison of French and Worldwide Bacillus anthracis Strains Favors a Recent, Post-Columbian Origin of the Predominant North-American Clade.

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Vergnaud, Gilles; Girault, Guillaume; Thierry, Simon; Pourcel, Christine; Madani, Nora; Blouin, Yann

2016-01-01

Bacillus anthracis, the highly dangerous zoonotic bacterial pathogen species is currently composed of three genetic groups, called A, B and C. Group A is represented worldwide whereas group B is present essentially in Western Europe and Southern Africa. Only three strains from group C have been reported. This knowledge is derived from the genotyping of more than 2000 strains collected worldwide. Strains from both group A and group B are present in France. Previous investigations showed that the majority of sporadic French strains belong to the so-called A.Br.011/009 group A clade and define a very remarkable polytomy with six branches. Here we explore the significance of this polytomy by comparing the French B. anthracis lineages to worldwide lineages. We take advantage of whole genome sequence data previously determined for 122 French strains and 45 strains of various origins. A total of 6690 SNPs was identified among the available dataset and used to draw the phylogeny. The phylogeny of the French B group strains which belongs to B.Br.CNEVA indicates an expansion from the south-east part of France (the Alps) towards the south-west (Massif-Central and Pyrenees). The relatively small group A strains belonging to A.Br.001/002 results from at least two independent introductions. Strikingly, the data clearly demonstrates that the currently predominant B. anthracis lineage in North America, called WNA for Western North American, is derived from one branch of the A.Br.011/009 polytomy predominant in France. The present work extends the range of observed substitution rate heterogeneity within B. anthracis, in agreement with its ecology and in contrast with some other pathogens. The population structure of the six branches A.Br.011/009 polytomy identified in France, diversity of branch length, and comparison with the WNA lineage, suggests that WNA is of post-Columbian and west European origin, with France as a likely source. Furthermore, it is tempting to speculate that

Engaging 'communities': anthropological insights from the West African Ebola epidemic.

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Wilkinson, A; Parker, M; Martineau, F; Leach, M

2017-05-26

The recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa highlights how engaging with the sociocultural dimensions of epidemics is critical to mounting an effective outbreak response. Community engagement was pivotal to ending the epidemic and will be to post-Ebola recovery, health system strengthening and future epidemic preparedness and response. Extensive literatures in the social sciences have emphasized how simple notions of community, which project solidarity onto complex hierarchies and politics, can lead to ineffective policies and unintended consequences at the local level, including doing harm to vulnerable populations. This article reflects on the nature of community engagement during the Ebola epidemic and demonstrates a disjuncture between local realities and what is being imagined in post-Ebola reports about the lessons that need to be learned for the future. We argue that to achieve stated aims of building trust and strengthening outbreak response and health systems, public health institutions need to reorientate their conceptualization of 'the community' and develop ways of working which take complex social and political relationships into account.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'. © 2017 The Authors.

Suppressing epidemic spreading by risk-averse migration in dynamical networks

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Yang, Han-Xin; Tang, Ming; Wang, Zhen

2018-01-01

In this paper, we study the interplay between individual behaviors and epidemic spreading in a dynamical network. We distribute agents on a square-shaped region with periodic boundary conditions. Every agent is regarded as a node of the network and a wireless link is established between two agents if their geographical distance is less than a certain radius. At each time, every agent assesses the epidemic situation and make decisions on whether it should stay in or leave its current place. An agent will leave its current place with a speed if the number of infected neighbors reaches or exceeds a critical value E. Owing to the movement of agents, the network's structure is dynamical. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal value of E leading to the maximum epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by risk-averse migration. Besides, we find that the epidemic threshold increases as the recovering rate increases, decreases as the contact radius increases, and is maximized by an optimal moving speed. Our findings offer a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading in dynamical networks.

Unusual dengue virus 3 epidemic in Nicaragua, 2009.

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Gamaliel Gutierrez

2011-11-01

Full Text Available The four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4 cause the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans worldwide. In 2009, Nicaragua experienced the largest dengue epidemic in over a decade, marked by unusual clinical presentation, as observed in two prospective studies of pediatric dengue in Managua. From August 2009-January 2010, 212 dengue cases were confirmed among 396 study participants at the National Pediatric Reference Hospital. In our parallel community-based cohort study, 170 dengue cases were recorded in 2009-10, compared to 13-65 cases in 2004-9. In both studies, significantly more patients experienced "compensated shock" (poor capillary refill plus cold extremities, tachycardia, tachypnea, and/or weak pulse in 2009-10 than in previous years (42.5% [90/212] vs. 24.7% [82/332] in the hospital study (p<0.001 and 17% [29/170] vs. 2.2% [4/181] in the cohort study (p<0.001. Signs of poor peripheral perfusion presented significantly earlier (1-2 days in 2009-10 than in previous years according to Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. In the hospital study, 19.8% of subjects were transferred to intensive care, compared to 7.1% in previous years - similar to the cohort study. DENV-3 predominated in 2008-9, 2009-10, and 2010-11, and full-length sequencing revealed no major genetic changes from 2008-9 to 2010-11. In 2008-9 and 2010-11, typical dengue was observed; only in 2009-10 was unusual presentation noted. Multivariate analysis revealed only "2009-10" as a significant risk factor for Dengue Fever with Compensated Shock. Interestingly, circulation of pandemic influenza A-H1N1 2009 in Managua was shifted such that it overlapped with the dengue epidemic. We hypothesize that prior influenza A H1N1 2009 infection may have modulated subsequent DENV infection, and initial results of an ongoing study suggest increased risk of shock among children with anti-H1N1-2009 antibodies. This study demonstrates that parameters other than serotype, viral

Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng Yun; Ding Li; Huang Yun-Han; Guan Zhi-Hong

2016-01-01

In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. (paper)

Human mobility and time spent at destination: impact on spatial epidemic spreading.

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Poletto, Chiara; Tizzoni, Michele; Colizza, Vittoria

2013-12-07

Host mobility plays a fundamental role in the spatial spread of infectious diseases. Previous theoretical works based on the integration of network theory into the metapopulation framework have shown that the heterogeneities that characterize real mobility networks favor the propagation of epidemics. Nevertheless, the studies conducted so far assumed the mobility process to be either Markovian (in which the memory of the origin of each traveler is lost) or non-Markovian with a fixed traveling time scale (in which individuals travel to a destination and come back at a constant rate). Available statistics however show that the time spent by travelers at destination is characterized by wide fluctuations, ranging from a single day up to several months. Such varying length of stay crucially affects the chance and duration of mixing events among hosts and may therefore have a strong impact on the spread of an emerging disease. Here, we present an analytical and a computational study of epidemic processes on a complex subpopulation network where travelers have memory of their origin and spend a heterogeneously distributed time interval at their destination. Through analytical calculations and numerical simulations we show that the heterogeneity of the length of stay alters the expression of the threshold between local outbreak and global invasion, and, moreover, it changes the epidemic behavior of the system in case of a global outbreak. Additionally, our theoretical framework allows us to study the effect of changes in the traveling behavior in response to the infection, by considering a scenario in which sick individuals do not leave their home location. Finally, we compare the results of our non-Markovian framework with those obtained with a classic Markovian approach and find relevant differences between the two, in the estimate of the epidemic invasion potential, as well as of the timing and the pattern of its spatial spread. These results highlight the importance of

Global stability results for a generalized Lotka-Volterra system with distributed delays. Applications to predator-prey and to epidemic systems.

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Beretta, E; Capasso, V; Rinaldi, F

1988-01-01

The paper contains an extension of the general ODE system proposed in previous papers by the same authors, to include distributed time delays in the interaction terms. The new system describes a large class of Lotka-Volterra like population models and epidemic models with continuous time delays. Sufficient conditions for the boundedness of solutions and for the global asymptotic stability of nontrivial equilibrium solutions are given. A detailed analysis of the epidemic system is given with respect to the conditions for global stability. For a relevant subclass of these systems an existence criterion for steady states is also given.

Interplay Between Hiv/aids Epidemics and Demographic Structures Based on Sexual Contact Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Wen-Jie; Zhou, Tao; Wang, Bing-Hong

In this article, we propose a network spreading model for HIV epidemics, wherein each individual is represented by a node of the transmission network and the edges are the connections between individuals along which the infection may spread. The sexual activity of each individual, measured by its degree, is not homogeneous but obeys a power-law distribution. Due to the heterogeneity of activity, the infection can persistently exist at a very low prevalence, which has been observed in the real data but cannot be illuminated by previous models with homogeneous mixing hypothesis. The model displays a clear picture of hierarchical spread: In the early stage the infection is adhered to these high-risk persons, and then, diffuses toward low-risk population. Furthermore, we find that to reduce the risky behaviors is much more effective in the fight against HIV/AIDS rather than the antiretroviral drug therapies. The prediction results show that the development of epidemics can be roughly categorized into three patterns for different countries, and the pattern of a given country is mainly determined by the average sex-activity and transmission probability per sexual partner. In most cases, the effect of HIV epidemics on demographic structure is very small. However, for some extremely countries, like Botswana, the number of sex-active people can be depressed to nearly a half by AIDS.

Global panel of HIV-1 Env reference strains for standardized assessments of vaccine-elicited neutralizing antibodies.

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deCamp, Allan; Hraber, Peter; Bailer, Robert T; Seaman, Michael S; Ochsenbauer, Christina; Kappes, John; Gottardo, Raphael; Edlefsen, Paul; Self, Steve; Tang, Haili; Greene, Kelli; Gao, Hongmei; Daniell, Xiaoju; Sarzotti-Kelsoe, Marcella; Gorny, Miroslaw K; Zolla-Pazner, Susan; LaBranche, Celia C; Mascola, John R; Korber, Bette T; Montefiori, David C

2014-03-01

Standardized assessments of HIV-1 vaccine-elicited neutralizing antibody responses are complicated by the genetic and antigenic variability of the viral envelope glycoproteins (Envs). To address these issues, suitable reference strains are needed that are representative of the global epidemic. Several panels have been recommended previously, but no clear answers have been available on how many and which strains are best suited for this purpose. We used a statistical model selection method to identify a global panel of reference Env clones from among 219 Env-pseudotyped viruses assayed in TZM-bl cells with sera from 205 HIV-1-infected individuals. The Envs and sera were sampled globally from diverse geographic locations and represented all major genetic subtypes and circulating recombinant forms of the virus. Assays with a panel size of only nine viruses adequately represented the spectrum of HIV-1 serum neutralizing activity seen with the larger panel of 219 viruses. An optimal panel of nine viruses was selected and augmented with three additional viruses for greater genetic and antigenic coverage. The spectrum of HIV-1 serum neutralizing activity seen with the final 12-virus panel closely approximated the activity seen with subtype-matched viruses. Moreover, the final panel was highly sensitive for detection of many of the known broadly neutralizing antibodies. For broader assay applications, all 12 Env clones were converted to infectious molecular clones using a proviral backbone carrying a Renilla luciferase reporter gene (Env.IMC.LucR viruses). This global panel should facilitate highly standardized assessments of vaccine-elicited neutralizing antibodies across multiple HIV-1 vaccine platforms in different parts of the world. An effective HIV-1 vaccine will need to overcome the extraordinary genetic variability of the virus, where most variation occurs in the viral envelope glycoproteins that are the sole targets for neutralizing antibodies. Efforts to elicit

The decline of the impetigo epidemic caused by the epidemic European fusidic acid-resistant impetigo clone: an 11.5-year population-based incidence study from a community in Western Norway.

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Rørtveit, Sverre; Skutlaberg, Dag Harald; Langeland, Nina; Rortveit, Guri

2014-12-01

From around the year 2000, Northern Europe experienced a rise in impetigo caused by Staphylococcus aureus resistant to fusidic acid. A single clone of S. aureus was found to be the bacterial pathogen involved in the impetigo outbreak in Norway, Sweden, the UK and Ireland, termed 'the epidemic European fusidic acid-resistant impetigo clone' (EEFIC). We have followed the incidence of impetigo during the years 2001-2012 based on all patients in general practice in the island community of Austevoll, Western Norway. We previously reported a marked decline of impetigo incidence in Austevoll, from 0.0260 cases per person-year in 2002 to 0.0038 in 2009. This article explores indications of an end to the impetigo epidemic caused by the EEFIC clone. All four general practitioners (GPs) in the community (mean population = 4400) were asked to diagnose impetigo in a uniform way and to take bacterial specimens from all impetigo cases. Phenotypic characteristics of specimen bacteria were determined for the whole period and molecular analyses were performed on isolates in the period 2008-2012. We observed a further decline in incidence of impetigo in Austevoll in the study period. The proportion of fusidic acid-resistant S. aureus isolates decreased during the period 2002-2012, with a mean of 80% in the epidemic years of 2002-2004, 55% in 2005-2009, and 6% in 2010-2012. In total, 44 S. aureus isolates from impetigo were subject to molecular analyses in the period 2008-2012, and 11 were found to be related to the EEFIC. All EEFIC isolates were found in 2008-2009, with no new isolates in 2010-2012. There is an apparent end to the impetigo epidemic related to the EEFIC in this population in Western Norway.

The anti-sigma factor TcdC modulates hypervirulence in an epidemic BI/NAP1/027 clinical isolate of Clostridium difficile.

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Glen P Carter

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Nosocomial infections are increasingly being recognised as a major patient safety issue. The modern hospital environment and associated health care practices have provided a niche for the rapid evolution of microbial pathogens that are well adapted to surviving and proliferating in this setting, after which they can infect susceptible patients. This is clearly the case for bacterial pathogens such as Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA and Vancomycin Resistant Enterococcus (VRE species, both of which have acquired resistance to antimicrobial agents as well as enhanced survival and virulence properties that present serious therapeutic dilemmas for treating physicians. It has recently become apparent that the spore-forming bacterium Clostridium difficile also falls within this category. Since 2000, there has been a striking increase in C. difficile nosocomial infections worldwide, predominantly due to the emergence of epidemic or hypervirulent isolates that appear to possess extended antibiotic resistance and virulence properties. Various hypotheses have been proposed for the emergence of these strains, and for their persistence and increased virulence, but supportive experimental data are lacking. Here we describe a genetic approach using isogenic strains to identify a factor linked to the development of hypervirulence in C. difficile. This study provides evidence that a naturally occurring mutation in a negative regulator of toxin production, the anti-sigma factor TcdC, is an important factor in the development of hypervirulence in epidemic C. difficile isolates, presumably because the mutation leads to significantly increased toxin production, a contentious hypothesis until now. These results have important implications for C. difficile pathogenesis and virulence since they suggest that strains carrying a similar mutation have the inherent potential to develop a hypervirulent phenotype.

General Strain Theory and Delinquency: Focusing on the Influences of Key Strain Characteristics on Delinquency

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Moon, Byongook; Blurton, David; McCluskey, John D.

2008-01-01

The study examines the effects of recent, older, and chronic strains and of perceived injustice of strain on delinquency, sampling 777 Korean youth. Seven key strains most likely leading to delinquency, some of which were often overlooked in previous research, were included, and these are family conflict, parental punishment, teachers' punishment,…

Effective distances for epidemics spreading on complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Iannelli, Flavio; Koher, Andreas; Brockmann, Dirk; Hövel, Philipp; Sokolov, Igor M.

2017-01-01

We show that the recently introduced logarithmic metrics used to predict disease arrival times on complex networks are approximations of more general network-based measures derived from random walks theory. Using the daily air-traffic transportation data we perform numerical experiments to compare the infection arrival time with this alternative metric that is obtained by accounting for multiple walks instead of only the most probable path. The comparison with direct simulations reveals a higher correlation compared to the shortest-path approach used previously. In addition our method allows to connect fundamental observables in epidemic spreading with the cumulant-generating function of the hitting time for a Markov chain. Our results provides a general and computationally efficient approach using only algebraic methods.

Dynamical processes and epidemic threshold on nonlinear coupled multiplex networks

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Gao, Chao; Tang, Shaoting; Li, Weihua; Yang, Yaqian; Zheng, Zhiming

2018-04-01

Recently, the interplay between epidemic spreading and awareness diffusion has aroused the interest of many researchers, who have studied models mainly based on linear coupling relations between information and epidemic layers. However, in real-world networks the relation between two layers may be closely correlated with the property of individual nodes and exhibits nonlinear dynamical features. Here we propose a nonlinear coupled information-epidemic model (I-E model) and present a comprehensive analysis in a more generalized scenario where the upload rate differs from node to node, deletion rate varies between susceptible and infected states, and infection rate changes between unaware and aware states. In particular, we develop a theoretical framework of the intra- and inter-layer dynamical processes with a microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA), and derive an analytic epidemic threshold. Our results suggest that the change of upload and deletion rate has little effect on the diffusion dynamics in the epidemic layer.

Epidemic spreading in weighted scale-free networks with community structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu, Xiangwei; Guan, Jihong; Zhang, Zhongzhi; Zhou, Shuigeng

2009-01-01

Many empirical studies reveal that the weights and community structure are ubiquitous in various natural and artificial networks. In this paper, based on the SI disease model, we investigate the epidemic spreading in weighted scale-free networks with community structure. Two exponents, α and β, are introduced to weight the internal edges and external edges, respectively; and a tunable probability parameter q is also introduced to adjust the strength of community structure. We find the external weighting exponent β plays a much more important role in slackening the epidemic spreading and reducing the danger brought by the epidemic than the internal weighting exponent α. Moreover, a novel result we find is that the strong community structure is no longer helpful for slackening the danger brought by the epidemic in the weighted cases. In addition, we show the hierarchical dynamics of the epidemic spreading in the weighted scale-free networks with communities which is also displayed in the famous BA scale-free networks

Association between genotype and drug resistance profiles of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains circulating in China in a national drug resistance survey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhou, Yang; van den Hof, Susan; Wang, Shengfen; Pang, Yu; Zhao, Bing; Xia, Hui; Anthony, Richard; Ou, Xichao; Li, Qiang; Zheng, Yang; Song, Yuanyuan; Zhao, Yanlin; van Soolingen, Dick

2017-01-01

We describe the population structure of a representative collection of 3,133 Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates, collected within the framework of a national resistance survey from 2007 in China. Genotyping data indicate that the epidemic strains in China can be divided into seven major complexes,

Molecular Typing of Pathogenic Leptospira Serogroup Icterohaemorrhagiae Strains Circulating in China during the Past 50 Years

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Zhang, Cuicai; Yang, Huimian; Li, Xiuwen; Cao, Zhiqiang; Zhou, Haijian; Zeng, Linzi; Xu, Jianmin; Xu, Yinghua; Chang, Yung-Fu; Guo, Xiaokui; Zhu, Yongzhang; Jiang, Xiugao

2015-01-01

Background Leptospirosis is one of the most important neglected tropical infectious diseases worldwide. Icterohaemorrhagiae has been throughout recent history, and still is, the predominant serogroup of this pathogen in China. However, very little in detail is known about the serovars or genotypes of this serogroup. Methodology/Principal Findings In this study, 120 epidemic strains from five geographically diverse regions in China collected over a 50 year period (1958~2008), and 8 international reference strains characterized by 16S rRNA sequencing and MLST analysis. 115, 11 and 2 strains were identified as L. interrogans, L. borgpetersenii, and L. kirschneri, respectively. 17 different STs were identified including 69 ST1 strains, 18 ST17, 18 ST128, 9 ST143 and 2 ST209. The remaining 12 strains belonged to 12 different STs. eBURST analysis demonstrated that, among the clonal complexes isolated (CCs), CC1 accounted for 73.3% (88/120) strains representing three STs: ST1, ST128 and ST98. ST1 was the most likely ancestral strain of this CC, followed by singleton CC17 (17/120) and CC143 (11/120). Further analysis of adding 116 serogroup Icterohaemorrhagiae strains in the MLST database and studies previously described using global eBURST analysis and MST dendrogram revealed relatively similar ST clustering patterns with five main CCs and 8 singletons among these 244 strains. CC17 was found to be the most prevalent clone of pathogenic Leptospira circulating worldwide. This is the first time, to our knowledge, that ST1 and ST17 strains were distributed among 4 distinct serovars, indicating a highly complicated relationship between serovars and STs. Conclusions/Significance Our studies demonstrated a high level of genetic diversity in the serogroup Icterohaemorrhagiae strains. Distinct from ST17 or ST37 circulating elsewhere, ST1 included in CC1, has over the past 50 years or so, proven to be the most prevalent ST of pathogenic leptospires isolated in China. Moreover, the

the south african hiv epidemic, reflected by nine provincial ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

the distribution and trend of the HIV epidemic in each of the ... The exponential model significantly explains the HIV epidemics in the .... such a curve is considered to be made up of three. October 199 ..... Ut: Quantitative Forecasting Methods.

The effect of awareness on networked SIS epidemics

KAUST Repository

Paarporn, Keith

2017-01-05

We study an SIS epidemic model over an arbitrary fixed network topology where the n agents, or nodes of the network, have partial information about the epidemic state. The agents react by distancing themselves from their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. An agent\\'s awareness is weighted from three sources of information: the fraction of infected neighbors in their contact network, their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time 2-state Markov chains. Through a coupling technique, we establish monotonicity properties between the benchmark and awareness models. Particularly, we show that the expectation of any increasing random variable on the space of sample paths, e.g. eradication time or total infections, is lower for the awareness model. In addition, we give a characterization for this difference of expectations in terms of the coupling distribution. In simulations, we evaluate how different sources of information affect the spread of an epidemic.

Trauma - the malignant epidemic

African Journals Online (AJOL)

national problem and the term 'malignant epidemic' is more applicable. These two ... In 1984 it stood at just over 400 000 per annum and today the figure is close to ... breadwinner, loss of productivity, expenses of rehabilitation and care of the ...

Epidemics on interconnected networks

Science.gov (United States)

Dickison, Mark; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

2012-06-01

Populations are seldom completely isolated from their environment. Individuals in a particular geographic or social region may be considered a distinct network due to strong local ties but will also interact with individuals in other networks. We study the susceptible-infected-recovered process on interconnected network systems and find two distinct regimes. In strongly coupled network systems, epidemics occur simultaneously across the entire system at a critical infection strength βc, below which the disease does not spread. In contrast, in weakly coupled network systems, a mixed phase exists below βc of the coupled network system, where an epidemic occurs in one network but does not spread to the coupled network. We derive an expression for the network and disease parameters that allow this mixed phase and verify it numerically. Public health implications of communities comprising these two classes of network systems are also mentioned.

Job strain and male fertility.

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Hjollund, Niels Henrik I; Bonde, Jens Peter E; Henriksen, Tine Brink; Giwercman, Aleksander; Olsen, Jørn

2004-01-01

Job strain, defined as high job demands and low job control, has not previously been explored as a possible determinant of male fertility. We collected prospective data on job strain among men, and describe the associations with semen quality and probability of conceiving a clinical pregnancy during a menstrual cycle. Danish couples (N = 399) who were trying to become pregnant for the first time were followed for up to 6 menstrual periods. All men collected semen samples, and a blood sample was drawn from both partners. Job demand and job control were measured by a self-administered questionnaire at entry, and in each cycle the participants recorded changes in job control or job demand during the previous 30 days. In adjusted analyses, no associations were found between any semen characteristic or sexual hormones and any job strain variable. The odds for pregnancy were not associated with job strain. Psychologic job strain encountered in normal jobs in Denmark does not seem to affect male reproductive function.

Conspicuous multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis cluster strains do not trespass country borders in Latin America and Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Ritacco, Viviana; Iglesias, María-José; Ferrazoli, Lucilaine; Monteserin, Johana; Dalla Costa, Elis R; Cebollada, Alberto; Morcillo, Nora; Robledo, Jaime; de Waard, Jacobus H; Araya, Pamela; Aristimuño, Liselotte; Díaz, Raúl; Gavin, Patricia; Imperiale, Belen; Simonsen, Vera; Zapata, Elsa M; Jiménez, María S; Rossetti, Maria L; Martin, Carlos; Barrera, Lucía; Samper, Sofia

2012-06-01

Multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain diversity in Ibero-America was examined by comparing extant genotype collections in national or state tuberculosis networks. To this end, genotypes from over 1000 patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis diagnosed from 2004 through 2008 in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela and Spain were compared in a database constructed ad hoc. Most of the 116 clusters identified by IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism were small and restricted to individual countries. The three largest clusters, of 116, 49 and 25 patients, were found in Argentina and corresponded to previously documented locally-epidemic strains. Only 13 small clusters involved more than one country, altogether accounting for 41 patients, of whom 13 were, in turn, immigrants from Latin American countries different from those participating in the study (Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia). Most of these international clusters belonged either to the emerging RD(Rio) LAM lineage or to the Haarlem family of M. tuberculosis and four were further split by country when analyzed with spoligotyping and rifampin resistance-conferring mutations, suggesting that they did not represent ongoing transnational transmission events. The Beijing genotype accounted for 1.3% and 10.2% of patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Latin America and Spain, respectively, including one international cluster of two cases. In brief, Euro-American genotypes were widely predominant among multidrug-resistant M. tuberculosis strains in Ibero-America, reflecting closely their predominance in the general M. tuberculosis population in the region, and no evidence was found of acknowledged outbreak strains trespassing country borders. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rainfall mediations in the spreading of epidemic cholera

Science.gov (United States)

Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Schild, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2013-10-01

Following the empirical evidence of a clear correlation between rainfall events and cholera resurgence that was observed in particular during the recent outbreak in Haiti, a spatially explicit model of epidemic cholera is re-examined. Specifically, we test a multivariate Poisson rainfall generator, with parameters varying in space and time, as a driver of enhanced disease transmission. The relevance of the issue relates to the key insight that predictive mathematical models may provide into the course of an ongoing cholera epidemic aiding emergency management (say, in allocating life-saving supplies or health care staff) or in evaluating alternative management strategies. Our model consists of a set of dynamical equations (SIRB-like i.e. subdivided into the compartments of Susceptible, Infected and Recovered individuals, and including a balance of Bacterial concentrations in the water reservoir) describing a connected network of human communities where the infection results from the exposure to excess concentrations of pathogens in the water. These, in turn, are driven by rainfall washout of open-air defecation sites or cesspool overflows, hydrologic transport through waterways and by mobility of susceptible and infected individuals. We perform an a posteriori analysis (from the beginning of the epidemic in October 2010 until December 2011) to test the model reliability in predicting cholera cases and in testing control measures, involving vaccination and sanitation campaigns, for the ongoing epidemic. Even though predicting reliably the timing of the epidemic resurgence proves difficult due to rainfall inter-annual variability, we find that the model can reasonably quantify the total number of reported infection cases in the selected time-span. We then run a multi-seasonal prediction of the course of the epidemic until December 2015, to investigate conditions for further resurgences and endemicity of cholera in the region with a view to policies which may bring to

Spatial self-organization in a multi-strain host–pathogen system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Quan-Xing; Van de Koppel, Johan; Wang, Rong-Hua; Jin, Zhen; Alonso, David

2010-01-01

We develop stochastic spatial epidemic models with the competition of two pathogenic strains. The dynamics resulting from different approaches are examined using both non-spatial and spatially explicit models. Our results show that pair approximation, well-mixed ordinary differential equations (ODEs), Gillespie-algorithm-based simulations and spatially explicit models give similar qualitative results. In particular, the temporal evolution of the spatial model can be successfully approximated by pair equations. Simulation results obtained from the spatially explicit model show that, first, mutation plays a major role in multi-strain coexistence, second, mild virulence remarkably decreases the coexistence domain of the parameter space and, third, large-scale self-organized spatial patterns emerge for a wide range of transmission and virulence parameter values, where spatial self-organized clusters reveal a power law behavior within the coexistence domain

Stable intergenerational associations of childhood overweight during the development of the obesity epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ajslev, Teresa A; Ängquist, Lars; Silventoinen, Karri

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The obesity epidemic may have developed as a response to the obesogenic environment among the genetically predisposed. This investigation examined whether the intergenerational resemblances in childhood overweight changed across the development of the obesity epidemic in groups of chil......: Parent-child resemblance in childhood overweight showed small changes during the development of the obesity epidemic, suggesting that the obesogenic environment inducing the epidemic in Denmark influenced children irrespective of their familial predisposition.......OBJECTIVE: The obesity epidemic may have developed as a response to the obesogenic environment among the genetically predisposed. This investigation examined whether the intergenerational resemblances in childhood overweight changed across the development of the obesity epidemic in groups...

Cultural Practices and the HIV Epidemic in Swaziland: Student\\'s ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

International Journal of Educational Research ... Cultural Practices and the HIV Epidemic in Swaziland: Student\\'s Perspectives and Challenges for School Counsellors ... Keywords: Cultural Practices, HIV Epidemic; Behaviour Change.

Epidemic spreading on heterogeneous networks with identical infectivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Rui; Wang, Bing-Hong; Ren, Jie; Bai, Wen-Jie; Shi, Zhi-Wen; Wang, Wen-Xu; Zhou, Tao

2007-01-01

In this Letter, we propose a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, in which each node is assigned with an identical capability of active contacts, A, at each time step. In contrast to the previous studies, we find that on scale-free networks, the density of the recovered individuals in the present model shows a threshold behavior. We obtain the analytical results using the mean-field theory and find that the threshold value equals 1/A, indicating that the threshold value is independent of the topology of the underlying network. The simulations agree well with the analytic results. Furthermore, we study the time behavior of the epidemic propagation and find a hierarchical dynamics with three plateaus. Once the highly connected hubs are reached, the infection pervades almost the whole network in a progressive cascade across smaller degree classes. Then, after the previously infected hubs are recovered, the disease can only propagate to the class of smallest degree till the infected individuals are all recovered. The present results could be of practical importance in the setup of dynamic control strategies

Canine distemper virus in the Serengeti ecosystem: molecular adaptation to different carnivore species.

Science.gov (United States)

Nikolin, Veljko M; Olarte-Castillo, Ximena A; Osterrieder, Nikolaus; Hofer, Heribert; Dubovi, Edward; Mazzoni, Camila J; Brunner, Edgar; Goller, Katja V; Fyumagwa, Robert D; Moehlman, Patricia D; Thierer, Dagmar; East, Marion L

2017-04-01

Was the 1993/1994 fatal canine distemper virus (CDV) epidemic in lions and spotted hyaenas in the Serengeti ecosystem caused by the recent spillover of a virulent domestic dog strain or one well adapted to these noncanids? We examine this question using sequence data from 13 'Serengeti' strains including five complete genomes obtained between 1993 and 2011. Phylogenetic and haplotype network analyses reveal that strains from noncanids during the epidemic were more closely related to each other than to those from domestic or wild canids. All noncanid 'Serengeti' strains during the epidemic encoded: (1) one novel substitution G134S in the CDV-V protein; and (2) the rare amino acid combination 519I/549H at two sites under positive selection in the region of the CDV-H protein that binds to SLAM (CD 150) host cell receptors. Worldwide, only a few noncanid strains in the America II lineage encode CDV-H 519I/549H. All canid 'Serengeti' strains during the epidemic coded CDV-V 134G, and CDV-H 519R/549Y, or 519R/549H. A functional assay of cell entry revealed the highest performance by CDV-H proteins encoding 519I/549H in cells expressing lion SLAM receptors, and the highest performance by proteins encoding 519R/549Y, typical of dog strains worldwide, in cells expressing dog SLAM receptors. Our findings are consistent with an epidemic in lions and hyaenas caused by CDV variants better adapted to noncanids than canids, but not with the recent spillover of a dog strain. Our study reveals a greater complexity of CDV molecular epidemiology in multihost environments than previously thought. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The origin and emergence of an HIV-1 epidemic:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bruhn, Christian Anders Wathne; Audelin, Anne M.; Helleberg, Marie

2014-01-01

To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic.......To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic....

Health-Care Access during the Ebola Virus Epidemic in Liberia.

Science.gov (United States)

McQuilkin, Patricia A; Udhayashankar, Kanagasabai; Niescierenko, Michelle; Maranda, Louise

2017-09-01

The Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic, which began in West Africa in December 2013, claimed more than 11,000 lives, with more than 4,800 of these deaths occurring in Liberia. The epidemic had an additional effect of paralyzing the health-care systems in affected countries, which led to even greater mortality and morbidity. Little is known about the impact that the epidemic had on the provision of basic health care. During the period from March to May 2015, we undertook a nationwide, community-based survey to learn more about health-care access during the EVD epidemic in Liberia. A cluster sampling strategy was used to administer a structured in-person survey to heads of households located within the catchment areas surrounding all 21 government hospitals in Liberia. A total of 543 heads of household from all 15 counties in Liberia participated in the study; more than half (67%) of urban respondents and 46% of rural respondents stated that it was very difficult or impossible to access health care during the epidemic. In urban areas, only 20-30% of patients seeking care during the epidemic received care, and in rural areas, only 70-80% of those seeking care were able to access it. Patients requiring prenatal and obstetric care and emergency services had the most difficulty accessing care. The results of this survey support the observation that basic health care was extremely difficult to access during the EVD epidemic in Liberia. Our results underscore the critical need to support essential health-care services during humanitarian crises to minimize preventable morbidity and mortality.

Epidemic Propagation of Control Plane Failures in GMPLS Controlled Optical Transport Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

2013-01-01

In this paper, we investigate the behaviour of a dataplane-decoupled GMPLS control plane, when it is affected by failures that spread in the network in an epidemic manner. In particular, we consider network nodes to be either fully functional, or having a failed control plane, or having both...... a failed control and data plane. Through large-scale network simulation, we evaluate the effect of epidemically spreading control plane failures in terms of blocked connections requests and the amount of stranded capacity due to a dysfunctional control plane. Furthermore, we investigate the effect...... of the epidemic and the epidemic spreading intensity. In particular, networks with long epidemic durations do not necessarily result in worst performance in terms of blocked requests and capacity. Also epidemic scenarios, resulting in worst impact on the network availability does not necessarily result in worst...

Drought and Epidemic Typhus, Central Mexico, 1655–1918

Science.gov (United States)

Acuna-Soto, Rudofo; Stahle, David W.

2014-01-01

Epidemic typhus is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Rickettsia prowazekii and transmitted by body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). This disease occurs where conditions are crowded and unsanitary. This disease accompanied war, famine, and poverty for centuries. Historical and proxy climate data indicate that drought was a major factor in the development of typhus epidemics in Mexico during 1655–1918. Evidence was found for 22 large typhus epidemics in central Mexico, and tree-ring chronologies were used to reconstruct moisture levels over central Mexico for the past 500 years. Below-average tree growth, reconstructed drought, and low crop yields occurred during 19 of these 22 typhus epidemics. Historical documents describe how drought created large numbers of environmental refugees that fled the famine-stricken countryside for food relief in towns. These refugees often ended up in improvised shelters in which crowding encouraged conditions necessary for spread of typhus. PMID:24564928

Dynamics of epidemic diseases on a growing adaptive network.

Science.gov (United States)

Demirel, Güven; Barter, Edmund; Gross, Thilo

2017-02-10

The study of epidemics on static networks has revealed important effects on disease prevalence of network topological features such as the variance of the degree distribution, i.e. the distribution of the number of neighbors of nodes, and the maximum degree. Here, we analyze an adaptive network where the degree distribution is not independent of epidemics but is shaped through disease-induced dynamics and mortality in a complex interplay. We study the dynamics of a network that grows according to a preferential attachment rule, while nodes are simultaneously removed from the network due to disease-induced mortality. We investigate the prevalence of the disease using individual-based simulations and a heterogeneous node approximation. Our results suggest that in this system in the thermodynamic limit no epidemic thresholds exist, while the interplay between network growth and epidemic spreading leads to exponential networks for any finite rate of infectiousness when the disease persists.

Multidimensional epidemic thresholds in diffusion processes over interdependent networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salehi, Mostafa; Siyari, Payam; Magnani, Matteo; Montesi, Danilo

2015-01-01

Highlights: •We propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold for interdependent networks. •We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics. •We study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics. -- Abstract: Several systems can be modeled as sets of interdependent networks where each network contains distinct nodes. Diffusion processes like the spreading of a disease or the propagation of information constitute fundamental phenomena occurring over such coupled networks. In this paper we propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold characterizing diffusion processes over interdependent networks, allowing different diffusion rates on the different networks and arbitrary degree distributions. We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics, i.e., the appearance of a giant connected component spanning all the networks. Furthermore, we study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics with extensive simulation experiments on synthetic and real networks

Effect of challenge of pigs previously immunised with inactivated vaccines containing homologous and heterologous Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae strains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Villarreal Iris

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae is the primary cause of enzootic pneumonia in pigs. Although vaccination is an important control tool, the results observed under field conditions are variable. This may be due to antigenic differences between the strains circulating in pig herds and the vaccine strain. This study compared the protective efficacy of four bacterins against challenge infection with a highly virulent field strain of M. hyopneumoniae. Seventy eight, one-week old piglets were randomly assigned to five treatment groups (A, B, C, D, E, 14 piglets each, and a negative control group (F consisting of 8 piglets. All pigs were injected at 1 (D7 and 4 weeks of age (D28, with 2 ml of either a placebo or a bacterin based on selected M. hyopneumoniae strains, namely A (F7.2C, B (F20.1L, C (B2V1W20 1A-F, D (J strain, E (placebo; positive control, F (placebo; negative control. At D56, all pigs except those of group F were challenged intratracheally with 7 ml culture medium containing 107 CCU/ml of M. hyopneumoniae strain F7.2C. All pigs were euthanized and necropsied at D84. The severity of coughing and pneumonia lesions were the main parameters. Immunofluorescence (IF testing, nested PCR testing of bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL fluid and serology for M. hyopneumoniae were also performed. Results The different bacterins only slightly improved clinical symptoms (average 0.38 in vaccinated groups vs. 0.45 in group E and histopathological lung lesions (average 3.20 in vaccinated groups vs. 3.45 in group E, but did not improve macroscopic lung lesions (score 4.30 vs. 4.03 in group E. None of the vaccines was significantly and/or consistently better or worse than the other ones. All bacterins evoked a serological response in the vaccinated animals. All pigs, except those from group F, were positive with nPCR in BAL fluid at D84. Conclusion The bacterins did not induce a clear overall protection against challenge infection, and there were no

Effect of challenge of pigs previously immunised with inactivated vaccines containing homologous and heterologous Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae strains.

Science.gov (United States)

Villarreal, Iris; Vranckx, Katleen; Calus, Dries; Pasmans, Frank; Haesebrouck, Freddy; Maes, Dominiek

2012-01-06

Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae is the primary cause of enzootic pneumonia in pigs. Although vaccination is an important control tool, the results observed under field conditions are variable. This may be due to antigenic differences between the strains circulating in pig herds and the vaccine strain. This study compared the protective efficacy of four bacterins against challenge infection with a highly virulent field strain of M. hyopneumoniae. Seventy eight, one-week old piglets were randomly assigned to five treatment groups (A, B, C, D, E), 14 piglets each, and a negative control group (F) consisting of 8 piglets. All pigs were injected at 1 (D7) and 4 weeks of age (D28), with 2 ml of either a placebo or a bacterin based on selected M. hyopneumoniae strains, namely A (F7.2C), B (F20.1L), C (B2V1W20 1A-F), D (J strain), E (placebo; positive control), F (placebo; negative control). At D56, all pigs except those of group F were challenged intratracheally with 7 ml culture medium containing 107 CCU/ml of M. hyopneumoniae strain F7.2C. All pigs were euthanized and necropsied at D84. The severity of coughing and pneumonia lesions were the main parameters. Immunofluorescence (IF) testing, nested PCR testing of bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluid and serology for M. hyopneumoniae were also performed. The different bacterins only slightly improved clinical symptoms (average 0.38 in vaccinated groups vs. 0.45 in group E) and histopathological lung lesions (average 3.20 in vaccinated groups vs. 3.45 in group E), but did not improve macroscopic lung lesions (score 4.30 vs. 4.03 in group E). None of the vaccines was significantly and/or consistently better or worse than the other ones. All bacterins evoked a serological response in the vaccinated animals. All pigs, except those from group F, were positive with nPCR in BAL fluid at D84. The bacterins did not induce a clear overall protection against challenge infection, and there were no significant differences in protective

The Convergence of a Virus, Mosquitoes, and Human Travel in Globalizing the Zika Epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Imperato, Pascal James

2016-06-01

The Zika virus was first identified in 1947 in the Zika Forest of Uganda. It was discovered in a rhesus monkey that had been placed in a cage on a sentinel platform in the forest by the Virus Research Institute. When this writer visited the institute and the Zika Forest in 1961, work was underway to identify mosquito species at various levels of the tree canopy. This was done through the placement of traps at various levels of a 120-foot-high steel tower which this writer climbed. At that time, researchers isolated 12 strains of Zika virus from traps on the tower. Over the next six decades, the virus spread slowly to other parts of Africa, and eventually appeared in Southeast Asia, transmitted by Aedes aegypti and other Aedes mosquito species. By 1981, only 14 cases of illness had been reported as due to the Zika virus. Since most infections with this virus are either mild or asymptomatic, its true geographic spread was not fully appreciated. The current globalization of the Zika epidemic began on the Pacific island of Yap in the Federated States of Polynesia in 2007. This was the first known presence of the Zika virus outside of Africa and Southeast Asia. It was estimated that 73 % of the island's population had been infected. In 2013, the virus spread to French Polynesia where an estimated 28,000 cases occurred in a population of 270,000. During that year and afterwards, microcephaly and other congenital abnormalities were observed in the infants of women who were pregnant when they contracted the virus. It is currently not known if cases of microcephaly have resulted from infection of pregnant women or from infection plus some other co-factor. The epidemic rapidly spread to the Cook Islands and Easter Island. In 2015, Zika virus infection was diagnosed in Brazil where it was associated with microcephaly in the infants of some women who were pregnant when they contracted the disease. Cases of the Guillain-Barré syndrome were also found to be associated with

Culture supernatants from V. cholerae O1 El Tor strains isolated from different geographic areas induce cell vacuolation and cytotoxicity.

Science.gov (United States)

Vidal, Jorge E; Enríquez-Rincón, Fernando; Giono-Cerezo, Silvia; Ribas-Aparicio, Rosa María; Figueroa-Arredondo, Paula

2009-01-01

To investigate whether the HlyA-induced vacuolating effect is produced by V. cholerae O1 ElTor strains isolated from different geographic origins, including Mexico. Supernatant-induced haemolysis, vacuolating activity and cytotoxicity in Vero cells were recorded. PCR, RFLP analysis and molecular cloning were performed. All ElTor strains analyzed induced cellular vacuolation. Ribotype 2 strains isolates from the U.S. gulf coast yielded the highest titer of vacuolating activity. Eight of nine strains were haemolytic, while all strains were PCR positive for the hlyA gene. We cloned the hlyA gene from two ElTor strains, a toxigenic (2514-88, ctxAB+) and a non-toxigenic Mexican strain (CM 91-3, ctxAB-). Supernatant from those recombinant E. coli strains induced haemolysis, cell vacuolation and cytotoxicity. RFLP-PCR analysis revealed similarities in the hlyA gene from all strains tested. The HlyA-induced vacuolating effect is a widespread phenotype of epidemic V. cholerae O1 ElTor strains.

GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

2009-08-01

In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

Bayesian projection of life expectancy accounting for the HIV/AIDS epidemic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jessica Godwin

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Background: While probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist, few account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a country, but this impact can be mitigated by widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART. Thus, projection methods for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics could be improved by accounting for HIV prevalence, the future course of the epidemic, and ART coverage. Methods: We extend the current Bayesian probabilistic life expectancy projection methods of Raftery et al. (2013 to account for HIV prevalence and adult ART coverage in countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics. Results: We evaluate our method using out-of-sample validation. We find that the proposed method performs better than the method that does not account for HIV prevalence or ART coverage for projections of life expectancy in countries with a generalized epidemic, while projections for countries without an epidemic remain essentially unchanged. Conclusions: In general, our projections show rapid recovery to pre-epidemic life expectancy levels in the presence of widespread ART coverage. After the initial life expectancy recovery, we project a steady rise in life expectancy until the end of the century. Contribution: We develop a simple Bayesian hierarchical model for long-term projections of life expectancy while accounting for HIV/AIDS prevalence and coverage of ART. The method produces well-calibrated projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics up to 2100 while having limited data demands.

The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.

Science.gov (United States)

Lourenço, José; Recker, Mario

2014-08-01

Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning.

Epidemic cholera in Latin America: spread and routes of transmission.

Science.gov (United States)

Guthmann, J P

1995-12-01

In the most recent epidemic of cholera in Latin America, nearly a million cases were reported and almost 9000 people died between January 1991 and December 1993. The epidemic spread rapidly from country to country, affecting in three years all the countries of Latin America except Uruguay and the Caribbean. Case-control studies carried out in Peru showed a significant association between drinking water and risk of disease. Cholera was associated with the consumption of unwashed fruit and vegetables, with eating food from street vendors and with contaminated crabmeat transported in travellers' luggage. This article documents the spread of the epidemic and its routes of transmission and discusses whether the introduction of the epidemic to Peru and its subsequent spread throughout the continent could have been prevented.

The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

2012-03-01

We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

Adaptive evolution of the spike gene of SARS coronavirus: changes in positively selected sites in different epidemic groups

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

He Shao-Heng

2006-10-01

-mid epidemic group (p = 0.0721. These suggest that functionally different domains of S protein may not experience same positive selection in each epidemic group. In addition, three specific replacements (F360S, T487S and L665S were only found between 03-human SARS-CoVs and strains from 02–04 interspecies epidemic group, which reveals that selective sweep may also force the evolution of S genes before the jump of SARS-CoVs into human hosts. Since certain residues at these positively selected sites are associated with receptor recognition and/or membrane fusion, they are likely to be the crucial residues for animal-to-human transmission of SARS-CoVs, and subsequent adaptation to human hosts. Conclusion The variation of positive selective pressures and positively selected sites are likely to contribute to the adaptive evolution of S protein from animals to humans.

Impact of clinical surveillance during a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette

duration, number of infected herds and the economic losses from an epidemic. The stochastic spatial simulation model DTU-DADS was enhanced to include simulation of surveillance of herds within the protection and surveillance zones and the model was used to model spread of FMD between herds. A queuing......The objectives of this study were to assess, whether the current surveillance capacity is sufficient to fulfill EU and Danish regulations to control a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Denmark, and whether enlarging the protection and/or surveillance zones could reduce epidemic...... showed that the default surveillance capacity is sufficient to survey herds within one week of the zones establishment, as the regulations demand. Extra resources for surveillance did not reduce the costs of the epidemics, but fewer resources could result in larger epidemics and costs. Furthermore...

Understanding Spatio-Temporal Variability in the Reproduction Ratio of the Bluetongue (BTV-1 Epidemic in Southern Spain (Andalusia in 2007 Using Epidemic Trees.

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S Napp

Full Text Available Andalusia (Southern Spain is considered one of the main routes of introduction of bluetongue virus (BTV into Europe, evidenced by a devastating epidemic caused by BTV-1 in 2007. Understanding the pattern and the drivers of BTV-1 spread in Andalusia is critical for effective detection and control of future epidemics. A long-standing metric for quantifying the behaviour of infectious diseases is the case-reproduction ratio (Rt, defined as the average number of secondary cases arising from a single infected case at time t (for t>0. Here we apply a method using epidemic trees to estimate the between-herd case reproduction ratio directly from epidemic data allowing the spatial and temporal variability in transmission to be described. We then relate this variability to predictors describing the hosts, vectors and the environment to better understand why the epidemic spread more quickly in some regions or periods. The Rt value for the BTV-1 epidemic in Andalusia peaked in July at 4.6, at the start of the epidemic, then decreased to 2.2 by August, dropped below 1 by September (0.8, and by October it had decreased to 0.02. BTV spread was the consequence of both local transmission within established disease foci and BTV expansion to distant new areas (i.e. new foci, which resulted in a high variability in BTV transmission, not only among different areas, but particularly through time, which suggests that general control measures applied at broad spatial scales are unlikely to be effective. This high variability through time was probably due to the impact of temperature on BTV transmission, as evidenced by a reduction in the value of Rt by 0.0041 for every unit increase (day in the extrinsic incubation period (EIP, which is itself directly dependent on temperature. Moreover, within the range of values at which BTV-1 transmission occurred in Andalusia (20.6°C to 29.5°C there was a positive correlation between temperature and Rt values, although the

Scale-dependent climatic drivers of human epidemics in ancient China.

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Huidong; Yan, Chuan; Xu, Lei; Büntgen, Ulf; Stenseth, Nils C; Zhang, Zhibin

2017-12-05

A wide range of climate change-induced effects have been implicated in the prevalence of infectious diseases. Disentangling causes and consequences, however, remains particularly challenging at historical time scales, for which the quality and quantity of most of the available natural proxy archives and written documentary sources often decline. Here, we reconstruct the spatiotemporal occurrence patterns of human epidemics for large parts of China and most of the last two millennia. Cold and dry climate conditions indirectly increased the prevalence of epidemics through the influences of locusts and famines. Our results further reveal that low-frequency, long-term temperature trends mainly contributed to negative associations with epidemics, while positive associations of epidemics with droughts, floods, locusts, and famines mainly coincided with both higher and lower frequency temperature variations. Nevertheless, unstable relationships between human epidemics and temperature changes were observed on relatively smaller time scales. Our study suggests that an intertwined, direct, and indirect array of biological, ecological, and societal responses to different aspects of past climatic changes strongly depended on the frequency domain and study period chosen.

Genomic Variation and Evolution of Vibrio parahaemolyticus ST36 over the Course of a Transcontinental Epidemic Expansion

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Jaime Martinez-Urtaza

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Vibrio parahaemolyticus is the leading cause of seafood-related infections with illnesses undergoing a geographic expansion. In this process of expansion, the most fundamental change has been the transition from infections caused by local strains to the surge of pandemic clonal types. Pandemic clone sequence type 3 (ST3 was the only example of transcontinental spreading until 2012, when ST36 was detected outside the region where it is endemic in the U.S. Pacific Northwest causing infections along the U.S. northeast coast and Spain. Here, we used genome-wide analyses to reconstruct the evolutionary history of the V. parahaemolyticus ST36 clone over the course of its geographic expansion during the previous 25 years. The origin of this lineage was estimated to be in ~1985. By 1995, a new variant emerged in the region and quickly replaced the old clone, which has not been detected since 2000. The new Pacific Northwest (PNW lineage was responsible for the first cases associated with this clone outside the Pacific Northwest region. After several introductions into the northeast coast, the new PNW clone differentiated into a highly dynamic group that continues to cause illness on the northeast coast of the United States. Surprisingly, the strains detected in Europe in 2012 diverged from this ancestral group around 2000 and have conserved genetic features present only in the old PNW lineage. Recombination was identified as the major driver of diversification, with some preliminary observations suggesting a trend toward a more specialized lifestyle, which may represent a critical element in the expansion of epidemics under scenarios of coastal warming.

Defining Moments in MMWR History: The AIDS Epidemic, Pneumocystis Pneumonia --- Los Angeles 1981

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

On June 5, 1981, MMWR published a report of Pneumocystis pneumonia in five previously healthy young gay men in Los Angeles, California. This report was later acknowledged as the first published account of what would become known as human immunodeficiency virus, or HIV, and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, or AIDS. It was the first of many MMWR reports that led to a better understanding of this new condition. In this podcast, Dr. Harold Jaffe recalls CDC's investigation and response to the AIDS Epidemic.

Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks including the effect of individual vigilance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gong Yong-Wang; Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping

2012-01-01

In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading in scale-free networks and propose a new susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that includes the effect of individual vigilance. In our model, the effective spreading rate is dynamically adjusted with the time evolution at the vigilance period. Using the mean-field theory, an analytical result is derived. It shows that individual vigilance has no effect on the epidemic threshold. The numerical simulations agree well with the analytical result. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of individual vigilance on the epidemic spreading speed. It is shown that individual vigilance can slow the epidemic spreading speed effectively and delay the arrival of peak epidemic infection. (general)

Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Changwang Zhang

Full Text Available Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Chain, Benjamin M

2015-01-01

Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

Underrecognition of Dengue during 2013 Epidemic in Luanda, Angola.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharp, Tyler M; Moreira, Rosa; Soares, Maria José; Miguel da Costa, Lúis; Mann, Jennifer; DeLorey, Mark; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L; Colón, Candimar; Margolis, Harold S; de Caravalho, Adelaide; Tomashek, Kay M

2015-08-01

During the 2013 dengue epidemic in Luanda, Angola, 811 dengue rapid diagnostic test-positive cases were reported to the Ministry of Health. To better understand the magnitude of the epidemic and identify risk factors for dengue virus (DENV) infection, we conducted cluster surveys around households of case-patients and randomly selected households 6 weeks after the peak of the epidemic. Of 173 case cluster participants, 16 (9%) exhibited evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 247 random cluster participants, 25 (10%) had evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 13 recently infected participants who had a recent febrile illness, 7 (54%) had sought medical care, and 1 (14%) was hospitalized with symptoms consistent with severe dengue; however, none received a diagnosis of dengue. Behavior associated with protection from DENV infection included recent use of mosquito repellent or a bed net. These findings suggest that the 2013 dengue epidemic was larger than indicated by passive surveillance data.

A social contagious model of the obesity epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, He; Yan, Zhijun; Chen, Yahong; Liu, Fangyan

2016-11-01

Obesity has been recognized as a global epidemic by WHO, followed by many empirical evidences to prove its infectiousness. However, the inter-person spreading dynamics of obesity are seldom studied. A distinguishing feature of the obesity epidemic is that it is driven by a social contagion process which cannot be perfectly described by the infectious disease models. In this paper, we propose a novel belief decision model based on the famous Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to model obesity epidemic as the competing spread of two obesity-related behaviors: physical inactivity and physical activity. The transition of health states is described by an SIS model. Results reveal the existence of obesity epidemic threshold, above which obesity is quickly eradicated. When increasing the fading level of information spread, enlarging the clustering of initial obese seeds, or introducing small-world characteristics into the network topology, the threshold is easily met. Social discrimination against the obese people plays completely different roles in two cases: on one hand, when obesity cannot be eradicated, social discrimination can reduce the number of obese people; on the other hand, when obesity is eradicable, social discrimination may instead cause it breaking out.

Heterogeneous vancomycin-intermediate susceptibility in a community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus epidemic clone, in a case of Infective Endocarditis in Argentina

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Vindel Ana

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Community-Associated Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA has traditionally been related to skin and soft tissue infections in healthy young patients. However, it has now emerged as responsible for severe infections worldwide, for which vancomycin is one of the mainstays of treatment. Infective endocarditis (IE due to CA-MRSA with heterogeneous vancomycin-intermediate susceptibility-(h-VISA has been recently reported, associated to an epidemic USA 300 CA-MRSA clone. Case Presentation We describe the occurrence of h-VISA phenotype in a case of IE caused by a strain belonging to an epidemic CA-MRSA clone, distinct from USA300, for the first time in Argentina. The isolate h-VISA (SaB2 was recovered from a patient with persistent bacteraemia after a 7-day therapy with vancomycin, which evolved to fatal case of IE complicated with brain abscesses. The initial isolate-(SaB1 was fully vancomycin susceptible (VSSA. Although MRSA SaB2 was vancomycin susceptible (≤2 μg/ml by MIC (agar and broth dilution, E-test and VITEK 2, a slight increase of MIC values between SaB1 and SaB2 isolates was detected by the four MIC methods, particularly for teicoplanin. Moreover, Sab2 was classified as h-VISA by three different screening methods [MHA5T-screening agar, Macromethod-E-test-(MET and by GRD E-test] and confirmed by population analysis profile-(PAP. In addition, a significant increase in cell-wall thickness was revealed for SaB2 by electron microscopy. Molecular typing showed that both strains, SaB1 and SaB2, belonged to ST5 lineage, carried SCCmecIV, lacked Panton-Valentine leukocidin-(PVL genes and had indistinguishable PFGE patterns (subtype I2, thereby confirming their isogenic nature. In addition, they were clonally related to the epidemic CA-MRSA clone (pulsotype I detected in our country. Conclusions This report demonstrates the ability of this epidemic CA-MRSA clone, disseminated in some regions of Argentina, to

Epidemic spread in coupled populations with seasonally varying migration rates

Science.gov (United States)

Muzyczyn, Adam; Shaw, Leah B.

2009-03-01

The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has spread worldwide, and this spread may be due to seasonal migration of birds and mixing of birds from different regions in the wintering grounds. We studied a multipatch model for avian influenza with seasonally varying migration rates. The bird population was divided into two spatially distinct patches, or subpopulations. Within each patch, the disease followed the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model for epidemic spread. Migration rates were varied periodically, with a net flux toward the breeding grounds during the spring and towards the wintering grounds during the fall. The case of two symmetric patches reduced to single-patch SIR dynamics. However, asymmetry in the birth and contact rates in the breeding grounds and wintering grounds led to bifurcations to longer period orbits and chaotic dynamics. We studied the bifurcation structure of the model and the phase relationships between outbreaks in the two patches.

Emergence of canine distemper virus strains with modified molecular signature and enhanced neuronal tropism leading to high mortality in wild carnivores.

Science.gov (United States)

Origgi, F C; Plattet, P; Sattler, U; Robert, N; Casaubon, J; Mavrot, F; Pewsner, M; Wu, N; Giovannini, S; Oevermann, A; Stoffel, M H; Gaschen, V; Segner, H; Ryser-Degiorgis, M-P

2012-11-01

An ongoing canine distemper epidemic was first detected in Switzerland in the spring of 2009. Compared to previous local canine distemper outbreaks, it was characterized by unusually high morbidity and mortality, rapid spread over the country, and susceptibility of several wild carnivore species. Here, the authors describe the associated pathologic changes and phylogenetic and biological features of a multiple highly virulent canine distemper virus (CDV) strain detected in and/or isolated from red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), Eurasian badgers (Meles meles), stone (Martes foina) and pine (Martes martes) martens, from a Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), and a domestic dog. The main lesions included interstitial to bronchointerstitial pneumonia and meningopolioencephalitis, whereas demyelination--the classic presentation of CDV infection--was observed in few cases only. In the brain lesions, viral inclusions were mainly in the nuclei of the neurons. Some significant differences in brain and lung lesions were observed between foxes and mustelids. Swiss CDV isolates shared together with a Hungarian CDV strain detected in 2004. In vitro analysis of the hemagglutinin protein from one of the Swiss CDV strains revealed functional and structural differences from that of the reference strain A75/17, with the Swiss strain showing increased surface expression and binding efficiency to the signaling lymphocyte activation molecule (SLAM). These features might be part of a novel molecular signature, which might have contributed to an increase in virus pathogenicity, partially explaining the high morbidity and mortality, the rapid spread, and the large host spectrum observed in this outbreak.

Heterogeneous Epidemic Model for Assessing Data Dissemination in Opportunistic Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rozanova, Liudmila; Alekseev, Vadim; Temerev, Alexander

2014-01-01

that amount of data transferred between network nodes possesses a Pareto distribution, implying scale-free properties. In this context, more heterogeneity in susceptibility means the less severe epidemic progression, and, on the contrary, more heterogeneity in infectivity leads to more severe epidemics...... — assuming that the other parameter (either heterogeneity or susceptibility) stays fixed. The results are general enough to be useful for estimating the epidemic progression with no significant acquired immunity — in the cases where Pareto distribution holds....

Sequential detection of influenza epidemics by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

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Closas Pau

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza is a well known and common human respiratory infection, causing significant morbidity and mortality every year. Despite Influenza variability, fast and reliable outbreak detection is required for health resource planning. Clinical health records, as published by the Diagnosticat database in Catalonia, host useful data for probabilistic detection of influenza outbreaks. Methods This paper proposes a statistical method to detect influenza epidemic activity. Non-epidemic incidence rates are modeled against the exponential distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimate for the decaying factor λ is calculated. The sequential detection algorithm updates the parameter as new data becomes available. Binary epidemic detection of weekly incidence rates is assessed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the absolute difference between the empirical and the cumulative density function of the estimated exponential distribution with significance level 0 ≤ α ≤ 1. Results The main advantage with respect to other approaches is the adoption of a statistically meaningful test, which provides an indicator of epidemic activity with an associated probability. The detection algorithm was initiated with parameter λ0 = 3.8617 estimated from the training sequence (corresponding to non-epidemic incidence rates of the 2008-2009 influenza season and sequentially updated. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test detected the following weeks as epidemic for each influenza season: 50−10 (2008-2009 season, 38−50 (2009-2010 season, weeks 50−9 (2010-2011 season and weeks 3 to 12 for the current 2011-2012 season. Conclusions Real medical data was used to assess the validity of the approach, as well as to construct a realistic statistical model of weekly influenza incidence rates in non-epidemic periods. For the tested data, the results confirmed the ability of the algorithm to detect the start and the end of epidemic periods. In general, the proposed test could

Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

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Xiang Wan

Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

Utility and potential of rapid epidemic intelligence from internet-based sources.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, S J; Chughtai, A A; Macintyre, C R

2017-10-01

Rapid epidemic detection is an important objective of surveillance to enable timely intervention, but traditional validated surveillance data may not be available in the required timeframe for acute epidemic control. Increasing volumes of data on the Internet have prompted interest in methods that could use unstructured sources to enhance traditional disease surveillance and gain rapid epidemic intelligence. We aimed to summarise Internet-based methods that use freely-accessible, unstructured data for epidemic surveillance and explore their timeliness and accuracy outcomes. Steps outlined in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist were used to guide a systematic review of research related to the use of informal or unstructured data by Internet-based intelligence methods for surveillance. We identified 84 articles published between 2006-2016 relating to Internet-based public health surveillance methods. Studies used search queries, social media posts and approaches derived from existing Internet-based systems for early epidemic alerts and real-time monitoring. Most studies noted improved timeliness compared to official reporting, such as in the 2014 Ebola epidemic where epidemic alerts were generated first from ProMED-mail. Internet-based methods showed variable correlation strength with official datasets, with some methods showing reasonable accuracy. The proliferation of publicly available information on the Internet provided a new avenue for epidemic intelligence. Methodologies have been developed to collect Internet data and some systems are already used to enhance the timeliness of traditional surveillance systems. To improve the utility of Internet-based systems, the key attributes of timeliness and data accuracy should be included in future evaluations of surveillance systems. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Age at puberty and the emerging obesity epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aksglaede, Lise; Juul, Anders; Olsen, Lina W

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have shown that puberty starts at younger ages than previously. It has been hypothesized that the increasing prevalence of childhood obesity is contributing to this trend. The purpose of this study was to analyze the association between prepubertal body mass index (BMI...... was significantly inversely associated with age at OGS and PHV. Dividing the children into five levels of prepubertal BMI, we found a similar secular trend toward earlier maturation in all BMI groups. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The heavier both boys and girls were at age seven, the earlier they entered puberty....... Irrespective of level of BMI at age seven, there was a downward trend in the age at attaining puberty in both boys and girls, which suggests that the obesity epidemic is not solely responsible for the trend....

Gendered Epidemics and Systems of Power in Africa: A Feminist ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

creating an environment that increases women's vulnerability to epidemics. The article ..... to epidemics because rarely, if ever, does a single reason account for their vulnerability. ... life as a young woman. Contraception gave her freedom from.

Epidemic surveillance using an electronic medical record: an empiric approach to performance improvement.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongzhang Zheng

Full Text Available Electronic medical records (EMR form a rich repository of information that could benefit public health. We asked how structured and free-text narrative EMR data should be combined to improve epidemic surveillance for acute respiratory infections (ARI.Eight previously characterized ARI case detection algorithms (CDA were applied to historical EMR entries to create authentic time series of daily ARI case counts (background. An epidemic model simulated influenza cases (injection. From the time of the injection, cluster-detection statistics were applied daily on paired background+injection (combined and background-only time series. This cycle was then repeated with the injection shifted to each week of the evaluation year. We computed: a the time from injection to the first statistical alarm uniquely found in the combined dataset (Detection Delay; b how often alarms originated in the background-only dataset (false-alarm rate, or FAR; and c the number of cases found within these false alarms (Caseload. For each CDA, we plotted the Detection Delay as a function of FAR or Caseload, over a broad range of alarm thresholds.CDAs that combined text analyses seeking ARI symptoms in clinical notes with provider-assigned diagnostic codes in order to maximize the precision rather than the sensitivity of case-detection lowered Detection Delay at any given FAR or Caseload.An empiric approach can guide the integration of EMR data into case-detection methods that improve both the timeliness and efficiency of epidemic detection.

Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

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Tom Britton

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

Inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading with entropy-based infected clusters.

Science.gov (United States)

Wen-Jie, Zhou; Xing-Yuan, Wang

2013-12-01

Considering the difference in the sizes of the infected clusters in the dynamic complex networks, the normalized entropy based on infected clusters (δ*) is proposed to characterize the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading. δ* gives information on the variability of the infected clusters in the system. We investigate the variation in the inhomogeneity of the distribution of the epidemic with the absolute velocity v of moving agent, the infection density ρ, and the interaction radius r. By comparing δ* in the dynamic networks with δH* in homogeneous mode, the simulation experiments show that the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading becomes smaller with the increase of v, ρ, r.

On the relative role of different age groups in influenza epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Worby, Colin J; Chaves, Sandra S; Wallinga, Jacco; Lipsitch, Marc; Finelli, Lyn; Goldstein, Edward

2015-12-01

The identification of key "driver" groups in influenza epidemics is of much interest for the implementation of effective public health response strategies, including vaccination programs. However, the relative importance of different age groups in propagating epidemics is uncertain. During a communicable disease outbreak, some groups may be disproportionately represented during the outbreak's ascent due to increased susceptibility and/or contact rates. Such groups or subpopulations can be identified by considering the proportion of cases within the subpopulation occurring before (Bp) and after the epidemic peak (Ap) to calculate the subpopulation's relative risk, RR=Bp/Ap. We estimated RR for several subpopulations (age groups) using data on laboratory-confirmed US influenza hospitalizations during epidemics between 2009-2014. Additionally, we simulated various influenza outbreaks in an age-stratified population, relating the RR to the impact of vaccination in each subpopulation on the epidemic's initial effective reproductive number R_e(0). We found that children aged 5-17 had the highest estimates of RR during the five largest influenza A outbreaks, though the relative magnitude of RR in this age group compared to other age groups varied, being highest for the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. For the 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 influenza B epidemics, adults aged 18-49, and 0-4 year-olds had the highest estimates of RR respectively. For 83% of simulated epidemics, the group with the highest RR was also the group for which initial distribution of a given quantity of vaccine would result in the largest reduction of R_e(0). In the largest 40% of simulated outbreaks, the group with the highest RR and the largest vaccination impact was children 5-17. While the relative importance of different age groups in propagating influenza outbreaks varies, children aged 5-17 play the leading role during the largest influenza A epidemics. Extra vaccination efforts for this group may contribute

Inter-epidemic transmission of Rift Valley fever in livestock in the Kilombero River Valley, Tanzania: a cross-sectional survey.

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Robert D Sumaye

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In recent years, evidence of Rift Valley fever (RVF transmission during inter-epidemic periods in parts of Africa has increasingly been reported. The inter-epidemic transmissions generally pass undetected where there is no surveillance in the livestock or human populations. We studied the presence of and the determinants for inter-epidemic RVF transmission in an area experiencing annual flooding in southern Tanzania. METHODOLOGY: A cross-sectional sero-survey was conducted in randomly selected cattle, sheep and goats in the Kilombero river valley from May to August 2011, approximately four years after the 2006/07 RVF outbreak in Tanzania. The exposure status to RVF virus (RVFV was determined using two commercial ELISA kits, detecting IgM and IgG antibodies in serum. Information about determinants was obtained through structured interviews with herd owners. FINDINGS: An overall seroprevalence of 11.3% (n = 1680 was recorded; 5.5% in animals born after the 2006/07 RVF outbreak and 22.7% in animals present during the outbreak. There was a linear increase in prevalence in the post-epidemic annual cohorts. Nine inhibition-ELISA positive samples were also positive for RVFV IgM antibodies indicating a recent infection. The spatial distribution of seroprevalence exhibited a few hotspots. The sex difference in seroprevalence in animals born after the previous epidemic was not significant (6.1% vs. 4.6% for females and males respectively, p = 0.158 whereas it was significant in animals present during the outbreak (26.0% vs. 7.8% for females and males respectively, p15 km from the flood plain were more likely to have antibodies than those living <5 km (OR 1.92; 95% CI 1.04-3.56. Species, breed, herd composition, grazing practices and altitude were not associated with seropositivity. CONCLUSION: These findings indicate post-epidemic transmission of RVFV in the study area. The linear increase in seroprevalence in the post-epidemic annual cohorts

The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

G. Magiorkinis (Gkikas); K. Angelis (Konstantinos); I. Mamais (Ioannis); Katzourakis, A. (Aris); A. Hatzakis (Angelos); J. Albert (Jan); Lawyer, G. (Glenn); O. Hamouda (Osamah); D. Struck (Daniel); J. Vercauteren (Jurgen); A. Wensing (Amj); I. Alexiev (Ivailo); B. Åsjö (Birgitta); C. Balotta (Claudia); Gomes, P. (Perpétua); R.J. Camacho (Ricardo Jorge); S. Coughlan (Suzie); A. Griskevicius (Algirdas); Z. Grossman (Zehava); Horban, A. (Anders); L.G. Kostrikis (Leondios); Lepej, S.J. (Snjezana J.); K. Liitsola (Kirsi); M. Linka (Marek); C. Nielsen; D. Otelea (Dan); R. Paredes (Roger); M. Poljak (Mario); E. Puchhammer-Stöckl (Elisabeth); J.C. Schmit; A. Sonnerborg (Anders); D. Stanekova (Danica); M. Stanojevic (Maja); Stylianou, D.C. (Dora C.); C.A.B. Boucher (Charles); Nikolopoulos, G. (Georgios); Vasylyeva, T. (Tetyana); Friedman, S.R. (Samuel R.); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); G. Angarano (Guiseppe); M.L. Chaix (Marie Laure); A. de Luca (Andrea); K. Korn (Klaus); Loveday, C. (Clive); V. Soriano (Virtudes); S. Yerly (Sabine); M. Zazzi; A.M. Vandamme (Anne Mieke); D. Paraskevis (Dimitrios)

2016-01-01

textabstractHuman immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa

Kanpur epidemic: Time course

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The first peak was related to water contamination which began in December 1990. The second peak was related to failure of municipal authorities to chlorinate water during the 2nd week of February 1991. The epidemic came under control quickly after water contamination was controlled, providing confirmation for role of ...

Intercontinental spread of a genetically distinctive complex of clones of Neisseria meningitidis causing epidemic disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Caugant, D A; Frøholm, L O; Bøvre, K; Holten, E; Frasch, C E; Mocca, L F; Zollinger, W D; Selander, R K

1986-07-01

Strains of Neisseria meningitidis responsible for an epidemic of meningococcal disease occurring in Norway since the mid-1970s and for recent increases in the incidence of disease in several other parts of Europe have been identified by multilocus enzyme electrophoresis as members of a distinctive group of 22 closely related clones (the ET-5 complex). Clones of this complex have also colonized South Africa, Chile, Cuba, and Florida, where they have been identified as the causative agents of recent outbreaks of meningococcal disease. There is strong circumstantial evidence that outbreaks of disease occurring in Miami in 1981 and 1982 were caused in large part by bacteria that reached Florida via human immigrants from Cuba.

Variability of the protein sequences of lcrV between epidemic and atypical rhamnose-positive strains of Yersinia pestis.

Science.gov (United States)

Anisimov, Andrey P; Panfertsev, Evgeniy A; Svetoch, Tat'yana E; Dentovskaya, Svetlana V

2007-01-01

Sequencing of lcrV genes and comparison of the deduced amino acid sequences from ten Y. pestis strains belonging mostly to the group of atypical rhamnose-positive isolates (non-pestis subspecies or pestoides group) showed that the LcrV proteins analyzed could be classified into five sequence types. This classification was based on major amino acid polymorphisms among LcrV proteins in the four "hot points" of the protein sequences. Some additional minor polymorphisms were found throughout these sequence types. The "hot points" corresponded to amino acids 18 (Lys --> Asn), 72 (Lys --> Arg), 273 (Cys --> Ser), and 324-326 (Ser-Gly-Lys --> Arg) in the LcrV sequence of the reference Y. pestis strain CO92. One possible explanation for polymorphism in amino acid sequences of LcrV among different strains is that strain-specific variation resulted from adaptation of the plague pathogen to different rodent and lagomorph hosts.

Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Yiyang; Zhou, Yinzuo

2017-02-01

The rapid development of modern society continually transforms the social structure which leads to an increasingly distinct dual structure of higher population density in urban areas and lower density in rural areas. Such structure may induce distinctive spreading behavior of epidemics which does not happen in a single type structure. In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading of mobile agents on dual structure networks based on SIRS model. First, beyond the well known epidemic threshold for generic epidemic model that when the infection rate is below the threshold a pertinent infectious disease will die out, we find the other epidemic threshold which appears when the infection rate of a disease is relatively high. This feature of two thresholds for the SIRS model may lead to the elimination of infectious disease when social network has either high population density or low population density. Interestingly, however, we find that when a high density area is connected to a low density may cause persistent spreading of the infectious disease, even though the same disease will die out when it spreads in each single area. This phenomenon indicates the critical role of the connection between the two areas which could radically change the behavior of spreading dynamics. Our findings, therefore, provide new understanding of epidemiology pertinent to the characteristic modern social structure and have potential to develop controlling strategies accordingly.

Enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus sequences and the PCR to generate fingerprints of genomic DNAs from Vibrio cholerae O1, O139, and non-O1 strains.

Science.gov (United States)

Rivera, I G; Chowdhury, M A; Huq, A; Jacobs, D; Martins, M T; Colwell, R R

1995-08-01

Enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus (ERIC) sequence polymorphism was studied in Vibrio Cholerae strains isolated before and after the cholera epidemic in Brazil (in 1991), along with epidemic strains from Peru, Mexico, and India, by PCR. A total of 17 fingerprint patterns (FPs) were detected in the V. cholerae strains examined; 96.7% of the toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains and 100% of the O139 serogroup strains were found to belong to the same FP group comprising four fragments (FP1). The nontoxigenic V. cholerae O1 also yielded four fragments but constituted a different FP group (FP2). A total of 15 different patterns were observed among the V. cholerae non-O1 strains. Two patterns were observed most frequently for V. cholerae non-01 strains, 25% of which have FP3, with five fragments, and 16.7% of which have FP4, with two fragments. Three fragments, 1.75, 0.79, and 0.5 kb, were found to be common to both toxigenic and nontoxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains as well as to group FP3, containing V. cholerae non-O1 strains. Two fragments of group FP3, 1.3 and 1.0 kb, were present in FP1 and FP2 respectively. The 0.5-kb fragment was common to all strains and serogroups of V. cholerae analyzed. It is concluded from the results of this study, based on DNA FPs of environmental isolates, that it is possible to detect an emerging virulent strain in a cholera-endemic region. ERIC-PCR constitutes a powerful tool for determination of the virulence potential of V. cholerae O1 strains isolated in surveillance programs and for molecular epidemiological investigations.

On the Use of Human Mobility Proxies for Modeling Epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Tizzoni, Michele; Bajardi, Paolo; Decuyper, Adeline; Kon Kam King, Guillaume; Schneider, Christian M.; Blondel, Vincent; Smoreda, Zbigniew; González, Marta C.; Colizza, Vittoria

2014-01-01

Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control, but may be hindered by data incompleteness or unavailability. Here we explore the opportunity of using proxies for individual mobility to describe commuting flows and predict the diffusion of an influenza-like-illness epidemic. We consider three European countries and the corresponding commuting networks at different resolution scales, obtained from (i) official census surveys, (ii) proxy mobility data extracted from mobile phone call records, and (iii) the radiation model calibrated with census data. Metapopulation models defined on these countries and integrating the different mobility layers are compared in terms of epidemic observables. We show that commuting networks from mobile phone data capture the empirical commuting patterns well, accounting for more than 87% of the total fluxes. The distributions of commuting fluxes per link from mobile phones and census sources are similar and highly correlated, however a systematic overestimation of commuting traffic in the mobile phone data is observed. This leads to epidemics that spread faster than on census commuting networks, once the mobile phone commuting network is considered in the epidemic model, however preserving to a high degree the order of infection of newly affected locations. Proxies' calibration affects the arrival times' agreement across different models, and the observed topological and traffic discrepancies among mobility sources alter the resulting epidemic invasion patterns. Results also suggest that proxies perform differently in approximating commuting patterns for disease spread at different resolution scales, with the radiation model showing higher accuracy than mobile phone data when the seed is central in the network, the opposite being observed for peripheral locations. Proxies should therefore be

Parasite transmission in social interacting hosts: Monogenean epidemics in guppies

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Mirelle B.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; van Oosterhout, Cock; Cable, Joanne

2011-01-01

Background Infection incidence increases with the average number of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. Contact rates are normally assumed to increase linearly with host density. However, social species seek out each other at low density and saturate their contact rates at high densities. Although predicting epidemic behaviour requires knowing how contact rates scale with host density, few empirical studies have investigated the effect of host density. Also, most theory assumes each host has an equal probability of transmitting parasites, even though individual parasite load and infection duration can vary. To our knowledge, the relative importance of characteristics of the primary infected host vs. the susceptible population has never been tested experimentally. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we examine epidemics using a common ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli infecting its guppy host (Poecilia reticulata). Hosts were maintained at different densities (3, 6, 12 and 24 fish in 40 L aquaria), and we monitored gyrodactylids both at a population and individual host level. Although parasite population size increased with host density, the probability of an epidemic did not. Epidemics were more likely when the primary infected fish had a high mean intensity and duration of infection. Epidemics only occurred if the primary infected host experienced more than 23 worm days. Female guppies contracted infections sooner than males, probably because females have a higher propensity for shoaling. Conclusions/Significance These findings suggest that in social hosts like guppies, the frequency of social contact largely governs disease epidemics independent of host density.

Genetic characterization of Italian field strains of Schmallenberg virus based on N and NSs genes.

Science.gov (United States)

Izzo, Francesca; Cosseddu, Gian Mario; Polci, Andrea; Iapaolo, Federica; Pinoni, Chiara; Capobianco Dondona, Andrea; Valleriani, Fabrizia; Monaco, Federica

2016-08-01

Following its first identification in Germany in 2011, the Schmallenberg virus (SBV) has rapidly spread to many other European countries. Despite the wide dissemination, the molecular characterization of the circulating strains is limited to German, Belgian, Dutch, and Swiss viruses. To fill this gap, partial genetic characterization of 15 Italian field strains was performed, based on S segment genes. Samples were collected in 2012 in two different regions where outbreaks occurred during distinct epidemic seasons. The comparative sequence analysis demonstrated a high molecular stability of the circulating viruses; nevertheless, we identified several variants of the N and NSs proteins not described in other SBV isolates circulating in Europe.

The cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980 - 1987 Epidemiological ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

During the cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980-1987, 25251 cases of cholera were bacteriologically proven. The case-fatality rate was 1,4%. Outbreaks occurred in the summer rainfall season. Age-specific aUack rates followed the pattern typically found during the 'epidemic phase' of the disease in most years. The vast ...

The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G.; Lepej, Snjezana J.; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C.; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R.; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

2016-01-01

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti

Epidemic spreading on preferred degree adaptive networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Jolad, Shivakumar; Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, B; Zia, R K P

2012-01-01

We study the standard SIS model of epidemic spreading on networks where individuals have a fluctuating number of connections around a preferred degree κ. Using very simple rules for forming such preferred degree networks, we find some unusual statistical properties not found in familiar Erdös-Rényi or scale free networks. By letting κ depend on the fraction of infected individuals, we model the behavioral changes in response to how the extent of the epidemic is perceived. In our models, the behavioral adaptations can be either 'blind' or 'selective'--depending on whether a node adapts by cutting or adding links to randomly chosen partners or selectively, based on the state of the partner. For a frozen preferred network, we find that the infection threshold follows the heterogeneous mean field result λ(c)/μ = / and the phase diagram matches the predictions of the annealed adjacency matrix (AAM) approach. With 'blind' adaptations, although the epidemic threshold remains unchanged, the infection level is substantially affected, depending on the details of the adaptation. The 'selective' adaptive SIS models are most interesting. Both the threshold and the level of infection changes, controlled not only by how the adaptations are implemented but also how often the nodes cut/add links (compared to the time scales of the epidemic spreading). A simple mean field theory is presented for the selective adaptations which capture the qualitative and some of the quantitative features of the infection phase diagram.

Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Hacker, Mariana A; Leite, Iuri C; Renton, Adrian; Torres, Tania Guillén de; Gracie, Renata; Bastos, Francisco I

2006-04-01

The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs) in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000) were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates). In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariana A. Hacker

2006-04-01

Full Text Available The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000 were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates. In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

Modeling and Analysis of Epidemic Diffusion within Small-World Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Liu

2012-01-01

Full Text Available To depict the rule of epidemic diffusion, two different models, the Susceptible-Exposure-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS model and the Susceptible-Exposure-Infected-Quarantine-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIQRS model, are proposed and analyzed within small-world network in this paper. Firstly, the epidemic diffusion models are constructed with mean-filed theory, and condition for the occurrence of disease diffusion is explored. Then, the existence and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium for these two complex epidemic systems are proved by differential equations knowledge and Routh-Hurwiz theory. At last, a numerical example which includes key parameters analysis and critical topic discussion is presented to test how well the proposed two models may be applied in practice. These works may provide some guidelines for decision makers when coping with epidemic diffusion controlling problems.

Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Yun; Ding, Li; Huang, Yun-Han; Guan, Zhi-Hong

2016-12-01

In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. Project supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61403284, 61272114, 61673303, and 61672112) and the Marine Renewable Energy Special Fund Project of the State Oceanic Administration of China (Grant No. GHME2013JS01).

Epidemic transmission on random mobile network with diverse infection periods

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Kezan; Yu, Hong; Zeng, Zhaorong; Ding, Yong; Ma, Zhongjun

2015-05-01

The heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity and time-varying topological structure are two realistic factors when we study epidemics on complex networks. Current research results have shown that the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity can increase the epidemic threshold in a random mobile dynamical network with the same infection period. In this paper, we will focus on random mobile dynamical networks with diverse infection periods due to people's different constitutions and external circumstances. Theoretical results indicate that the epidemic threshold of the random mobile network with diverse infection periods is larger than the counterpart with the same infection period. Moreover, the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity can play a significant impact on disease transmission. In particular, the homogeneity of individuals will avail to the spreading of epidemics. Numerical examples verify further our theoretical results very well.

Genetic Relatedness among Nontypeable Pneumococci Implicated in Sporadic Cases of Conjunctivitis

OpenAIRE

Barker, Jason H.; Musher, Daniel M.; Silberman, Ronald; Phan, Hoang M.; Watson, David A.

1999-01-01

Nontypeable Streptococcus pneumoniae is a common cause of epidemic conjunctivitis. A previous molecular fingerprinting study identified a clone of nontypeable pneumococcus that was responsible for a recent outbreak of conjunctivitis. In the present study, we examined the extent to which pneumococci that cause sporadic cases of conjunctivitis are related to this epidemic strain. Using arbitrarily primed BOX-PCR, we have determined that, of 10 nontypeable pneumococci causing sporadic conjunctiv...

A Data-Driven Air Transportation Delay Propagation Model Using Epidemic Process Models

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B. Baspinar

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In air transport network management, in addition to defining the performance behavior of the system’s components, identification of their interaction dynamics is a delicate issue in both strategic and tactical decision-making process so as to decide which elements of the system are “controlled” and how. This paper introduces a novel delay propagation model utilizing epidemic spreading process, which enables the definition of novel performance indicators and interaction rates of the elements of the air transportation network. In order to understand the behavior of the delay propagation over the network at different levels, we have constructed two different data-driven epidemic models approximating the dynamics of the system: (a flight-based epidemic model and (b airport-based epidemic model. The flight-based epidemic model utilizing SIS epidemic model focuses on the individual flights where each flight can be in susceptible or infected states. The airport-centric epidemic model, in addition to the flight-to-flight interactions, allows us to define the collective behavior of the airports, which are modeled as metapopulations. In network model construction, we have utilized historical flight-track data of Europe and performed analysis for certain days involving certain disturbances. Through this effort, we have validated the proposed delay propagation models under disruptive events.

Enterococcus faecium strains characterization through polymorphism study of VNTR loci

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Belteghi, C.,

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Enterococci are commensally bacteria of the gastrointestinal and female genital tract in humans and some mammals and birds, and one of the significant causes of hospital-acquired infections, especially in immuno-compromised patients. Genetic fingerprinting (DNA fingerprinting is a tool for identifying, marking and prevention of infectious agents dissemination. SSR (short sequence repeat are known to suffer frequent variations in the number of repetitive units.MLVA (multiple locus variable number tandem repeats analysis is a variant of genetic fingerprinting, in epidemiological studies on the pathogenetic Enterococcus faecium. Our study included laboratory Enterococcus faecium strains or isolated from clinical cases or from the environment (2003-2008. All analyzed strains of Enterococcus faecium were sensitive to vancomycin, except BM4147, and resistant to oxacilin. Strains isolated from the birds’ samples have shown a smaller resistance profile than those of human origin. 33 Enterococus faecium strains were analyzed by PCR amplification. 27 MT (VNTR profiles were obtained: six in the case of the strains isolated from birds, 15 in the case of the strains isolated form humans, 4 in the case of the collection strains and 2 in the case of the strains isolated from water samples. Among the strains isolated from humans and those isolated from animals, identical profiles were not recorded. Within the strains isolated from clinical cases, and those isolated from birds, circulating genotypes were noted, which can be considered as epidemical. The strains used as probiotics proved to be different from those circulating in birds. All MLVA profiles codes compared with those published on line in the UMC Utrecht database proved to be different. Results obtained in this study support the usefulness of the polymorphic VNTR analysis, as genetic marker, inepidemiological investigations.

SIMULATION OF EPIDEMIC TRANSMISSION OF МYCOBACTERIUM TUBERCULOSIS IN THE SAKHA REPUBLIC (YUKUTIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. N. Zhdаnovа

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Goal: reconstruction of epidemic transmission of Beijing genotype of Mycobacterium tuberculosis on the territory with limited migration based on the comparative study of 153 isolates isolated from patients of different generations in theSakhaRepublic (Yakutia.Materials and methods. The structure of Mycobacterium tuberculosis population was described and analyzed through MIRU-VNTR-genotyping, subtyping of the parts of RD105/RD207 genome, pattern classification as per clonal pattern of Merker M. et al (2015, and phylogenetic simulation.Results. It was found out that highly transmissive subtypes of Beijing genotype having a high potential of developing drug resistance was confidently more prevalent (χ2 = 8.3, p < 0.01 among younger people (born after 1990 compared to the older generation (born before 1959. It was also found out that during previous five decades a certain shift occurred in the structure of M. tuberculosis population.Conclusion. The obtained data confirm the hypothesis that epidemic sybtypes ofBeijing genotype were brought to the territory of theSakhaRepublic (Yakutia fairly recently (approximately fifty years ago compared to the other regions ofRussia.

Know your epidemic, know your response: targeting HIV in Asia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lazarus, Jeff; Curth, Nadja; Bridge, Jamie

2010-01-01

This article provides an overview of the HIV epidemic in Asia, the context within which the epidemic is evolving, and the key actions to address the challenges faced by countries and risk groups. HIV epidemics across Asia are predominantly concentrated among most-at-risk populations. Although...... prevention and treatment services. In order to reach the Millennium Development Goal of halting and reversing the spread of HIV by 2015 and to achieve universal access to HIV treatment, these barriers must be overcome across Asia. High-impact programs must be targeted at those in need, with continuous...

Reemergence of enterovirus 71 epidemic in northern Taiwan, 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Shu-Ting; Chiang, Pai-Shan; Chung, Wan-Yu; Chia, Min-Yuan; Tsao, Kuo-Chien; Wang, Ying-Hsiang; Lin, Tzou-Yien; Lee, Min-Shi

2015-01-01

Enterovirus 71 (EV71) belongs to picornavirus family and could be classified phylogenetically into three major genogroups (A, B and C) including 11 genotypes (A, B1-B5 and C1-C5). Since 1997, EV71 has caused large-scale of epidemics with neurological complications in Asian children. In Taiwan, nationwide EV71 epidemics with different predominant genotypes have occurred cyclically since 1998. A nationwide EV71 epidemic occurred again in 2012. We conducted genetic and antigenic characterizations of the 2012 epidemic. Chang Gung Memorial Hospital (CGMH) is a medical center in northern Taiwan. In CGMH, specimens were collected from pediatric inpatients with suspected enterovirus infections for virus isolation. Enterovirus isolates were serotyped and genotyped and sera from EV71 inpatients were collected for measuring neutralizing antibody titers. There were 10, 16 and 99 EV71 inpatients identified in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively. There were 82 EV71 isolates genotyped, which identified 17 genotype C4a viruses and 65 genotype B5 viruses. The genotype B5 viruses were not detected until November 2011 and caused epidemics in 2012. Interestingly, the B5-2011 viruses were genetically distinguishable from the B5 viruses causing the 2008 epidemic and are likely introduced from China or Southeastern Asia. Based on antigenic analysis, minor antigenic variations were detected among the B5-2008, B5-2011, C4a-2008 and C4a-2012 viruses but these viruses antigenically differed from genotype A. Genotype B5 and C4a viruses antigenically differ from genotype A viruses which have disappeared globally for 30 years but have been detected in China since 2008. Enterovirus surveillance should monitor genetic and antigenic variations of EV71.

Epidemic optic neuropathy in Cuba. Eye findings.

Science.gov (United States)

Sadun, A A; Martone, J F; Muci-Mendoza, R; Reyes, L; DuBois, L; Silva, J C; Roman, G; Caballero, B

1994-05-01

To characterize and establish a clinical definition of the optic neuropathy that appeared in epidemic form in Cuba in 1992 and 1993. At the invitation of the Cuban Ministry of Health, Havana, members of ORBIS International and the Pan American Health Organization, assembled teams that traveled to Cuba in May 1993. We were initially briefed by Cuban national experts in the areas of virology, nutrition, toxicology, ophthalmology, neurology, and public health. We then examined 20 patients on our own. Thirteen of these patients underwent a comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic examination, including neurologic examination, ophthalmologic examination, visual fields, optic nerve function studies, contrast sensitivity studies, and funduscopy. We returned 4 months later to perform an additional 12 comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic and follow-up examinations. Only seven of the 13 patients who were alleged to have the optic form of the epidemic and who were rigorously and systematically examined on the first visit demonstrated a bilateral optic neuropathy. These seven patients had several features that included decreased visual acuity, poor color vision, central scotomas, decreased contrast sensitivity, saccadic eye movements, and most prominent and distinctive of all, nerve fiber layer wedge defects of the papillomacular bundle. Our clinical definition was then implemented by the Cuban ophthalmologists and epidemiologists. On returning 4 months later, we found that all newly presented patients were correctly diagnosed to have the epidemic disease. With the new case definition and the application of a few simple psychophysical tests, the false-positive rate of diagnosis became much lower. After vitamin therapy, we reexamined the patients seen on our initial visit, and all showed marked improvement. The Cuban epidemic was characterized by an optic neuropathy with features that were similar to those of tobacco/alcohol amblyopia and Leber's optic atrophy. Recent political

Rationing of resources: ethical issues in disasters and epidemic situations.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Janet Y; Anderson-Shaw, Lisa

2009-01-01

In an epidemic situation or large-scale disaster, medical and human resources may be stretched to the point of exhaustion. Appropriate planning must incorporate plans of action that minimize public health morbidity and mortality while maximizing the appropriate use of medical and human healthcare resources. While the current novel H1N1 influenza has spread throughout the world, the severity of this strain of influenza appears to be relatively less virulent and lethal compared to the 1918 influenza pandemic. However, the presence of this new influenza strain has reignited interest in pandemic planning. Amongst other necessary resources needed to combat pandemic influenza, a major medical resource concern is the limited number of mechanical ventilators that would be available to be used to treat ill patients. Recent reported cases of avian influenza suggest that mechanical ventilation will be required for the successful recovery of many individuals ill with this strain of virus. However, should the need for ventilators exceed the number of available machines, how will care providers make the difficult ethical decisions as to who should be placed or who should remain on these machines as more influenza patients arrive in need of care? This paper presents a decision-making model for clinicians that is based upon the bioethical principles of beneficence and justice. The model begins with the basic assumptions of triage and progresses into a useful algorithm based upon utilitarian principles. The model is intended to be used as a guide for clinicians in making decisions about the allocation of scarce resources in a just manner and to serve as an impetus for institutions to create or adapt plans to address resource allocation issues should the need arise.

Impact of porcine epidemic diarrhea on performance of growing pigs.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julio Alvarez

Full Text Available The impact of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv infection on the US pork industry has mainly been attributed to the mortality that it causes in suckling piglets, and, consequently, much effort has been invested in the quantification of its effect in sow farms. However, no information on the performance of surviving pigs that were exposed to the PEDv as piglets is available. Here, a retrospective cohort study to evaluate the impact of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv infection on growing pigs' performance, as indicated by mortality, average daily gain (ADG, average daily feed intake (ADFI, and feed conversion ratio (FCR was performed using production records from weaned pigs in nursery and wean-to-finish sites from sow farms that became PEDv-infected between May 2013 and June 2014. Production records from the first batch of growing pigs weaned in infected flows after the PEDv outbreak ("infected batches" were compared with those from pigs weaned within the previous 14 to 120 days ("control batches". Performance records from infected and control batches, paired by flow, were compared using non-parametric paired tests. Mortality, ADG and FCR were significantly different in PEDv-positive (infected compared with PEDv-negative (control batches, with a mean increase of mortality and FCR of 11% and 0.5, respectively, and a decrease of ADG of 0.16 lb/day. Our results demonstrate a poorer performance of growing pigs weaned after a PEDv outbreak compared with those weaned within the previous 14-120 days, suggesting that in addition to the mortality induced by PEDv in suckling pigs, the disease also impairs the performance of surviving pig. These findings help to quantify the impact of PEDv infection in the US and, ultimately, contribute to efforts to quantify the cost-effectiveness of disease prevention and control measures.

Epidemic spreading on contact networks with adaptive weights.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Guanghu; Chen, Guanrong; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu

2013-01-21

The heterogeneous patterns of interactions within a population are often described by contact networks, but the variety and adaptivity of contact strengths are usually ignored. This paper proposes a modified epidemic SIS model with a birth-death process and nonlinear infectivity on an adaptive and weighted contact network. The links' weights, named as 'adaptive weights', which indicate the intimacy or familiarity between two connected individuals, will reduce as the disease develops. Through mathematical and numerical analyses, conditions are established for population extermination, disease extinction and infection persistence. Particularly, it is found that the fixed weights setting can trigger the epidemic incidence, and that the adaptivity of weights cannot change the epidemic threshold but it can accelerate the disease decay and lower the endemic level. Finally, some corresponding control measures are suggested. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Duanming; He Minhua; Yu Xiaoling; Pan Guijun; Sun Hongzhang; Su Xiangying; Sun Fan; Yin Yanping; Li Rui; Liu Dan

2006-01-01

We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady states of epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δ c and p c below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δ c , it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHANG Duan-Ming; LIU Dan; HE Min-Hua; YU Xiao-Ling; PAN Gui-Jun; SUN Hong-Zhang; SU Xiang-Ying; SUN Fan; YIN Yan-Ping; LI Rui

2006-01-01

We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady statesof epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δc and pc below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δc, it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

Global stability of a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model on networks with individual awareness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Ke-Zan; Xu Zhong-Pu; Zhu Guang-Hu; Ding Yong

2014-01-01

Recent research results indicate that individual awareness can play an important influence on epidemic spreading in networks. By local stability analysis, a significant conclusion is that the embedded awareness in an epidemic network can increase its epidemic threshold. In this paper, by using limit theory and dynamical system theory, we further give global stability analysis of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on networks with awareness. Results show that the obtained epidemic threshold is also a global stability condition for its endemic equilibrium, which implies the embedded awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold globally. Some numerical examples are presented to verify the theoretical results. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

Statistics of Epidemics in Networks by Passing Messages

Science.gov (United States)

Shrestha, Munik Kumar

financial contagion gets worse with too much diversification. We also predict that financial system exhibits "robust yet fragile" behavior, with regions of the parameter space where contagion is rare but catastrophic whenever it occurs. In further results, we develop a message-passing approach to recurrent state epidemics like susceptible-infectious-susceptible and susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible where nodes can return to previously inhabited states and multiple waves of infection can pass through the population. Given that message-passing has been applied exclusively to models with one-way state changes like susceptible-infectious and susceptible-infectious-recovered, we develop message-passing for recurrent epidemics based on a new class of differential equations and demonstrate that our approach is simple and efficiently approximates results obtained from Monte Carlo simulation, and that the accuracy of message-passing is often superior to the pair approximation (which also takes second-order correlations into account).

Enzyme markers in inbred rat strains: genetics of new markers and strain profiles.

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, M; Baverstock, P R; Watts, C H; Gutman, G A

1984-08-01

Twenty-six inbred strains of the laboratory rat (Rattus norvegicus) were examined for electrophoretic variation at an estimated 97 genetic loci. In addition to previously documented markers, variation was observed for the enzymes aconitase, aldehyde dehydrogenase, and alkaline phosphatase. The genetic basis of these markers (Acon-1, Ahd-2, and Akp-1) was confirmed. Linkage analysis between 35 pairwise comparisons revealed that the markers Fh-1 and Pep-3 are linked. The strain profiles of the 25 inbred strains at 11 electrophoretic markers are given.

Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

2009-01-01

Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination wit...

Degree of host susceptibility in the initial disease outbreak influences subsequent epidemic spread

Science.gov (United States)

Severns, Paul M.; Estep, Laura K.; Sackett, Kathryn E.; Mundt, Christopher C.

2014-01-01

Summary Disease epidemics typically begin as an outbreak of a relatively small, spatially explicit population of infected individuals (focus), in which disease prevalence increases and rapidly spreads into the uninfected, at-risk population. Studies of epidemic spread typically address factors influencing disease spread through the at-risk population, but the initial outbreak may strongly influence spread of the subsequent epidemic.We initiated wheat stripe rust Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici epidemics to assess the influence of the focus on final disease prevalence when the degree of disease susceptibility differed between the at-risk and focus populations.When the focus/at-risk plantings consisted of partially genetic resistant and susceptible cultivars, final disease prevalence was statistically indistinguishable from epidemics produced by the focus cultivar in monoculture. In these experimental epidemics, disease prevalence was not influenced by the transition into an at-risk population that differed in disease susceptibility. Instead, the focus appeared to exert a dominant influence on the subsequent epidemic.Final disease prevalence was not consistently attributable to either the focus or the at-risk population when focus/at-risk populations were planted in a factorial set-up with a mixture (~28% susceptible and 72% resistant) and susceptible individuals. In these experimental epidemics, spatial heterogeneity in disease susceptibility within the at-risk population appeared to counter the dominant influence of the focus.Cessation of spore production from the focus (through fungicide/glyphosate application) after 1.3 generations of stripe rust spread did not reduce final disease prevalence, indicating that the focus influence on disease spread is established early in the epidemic.Synthesis and applications. Our experiments indicated that outbreak conditions can be highly influential on epidemic spread, even when disease resistance in the at-risk population

Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

Science.gov (United States)

Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

2007-03-01

The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

Epidemic spreading on complex networks with overlapping and non-overlapping community structure

Science.gov (United States)

Shang, Jiaxing; Liu, Lianchen; Li, Xin; Xie, Feng; Wu, Cheng

2015-02-01

Many real-world networks exhibit community structure where vertices belong to one or more communities. Recent studies show that community structure plays an import role in epidemic spreading. In this paper, we investigate how the extent of overlap among communities affects epidemics. In order to experiment on the characteristic of overlapping communities, we propose a rewiring algorithm that can change the community structure from overlapping to non-overlapping while maintaining the degree distribution of the network. We simulate the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic process on synthetic scale-free networks and real-world networks by applying our rewiring algorithm. Experiments show that epidemics spread faster on networks with higher level of overlapping communities. Furthermore, overlapping communities' effect interacts with the average degree's effect. Our work further illustrates the important role of overlapping communities in the process of epidemic spreading.

The importance of thinking beyond the water-supply in cholera epidemics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Phelps, Matthew D.; Azman, Andrew S.; Lewnard, Joseph A.

2017-01-01

the contribution of long-cycle waterborne transmission between neighborhoods using historical municipal water infrastructure data, fitting the force of infection from hydraulic flow, then comparing model performance. We found the epidemic was characterized by considerable transmission heterogeneity. Some...... municipal water quality. We recommend public health planners consider programs aimed at interrupting short-cycle transmission as essential tools in the cholera control arsenal. Author summary: John Snow’s seminal work on the London cholera epidemic and Broadway pump helped establish cholera......-cycle transmission to the epidemic. We find transmission between neighborhoods during the epidemic did not follow water pipe connections, suggesting little evidence of long-cycle transmission. Instead, we suggest that short-cycle transmission was likely critical to the propagation of the outbreak. Interventions...

Oscillations in epidemic models with spread of awareness.

Science.gov (United States)

Just, Winfried; Saldaña, Joan; Xin, Ying

2018-03-01

We study ODE models of epidemic spreading with a preventive behavioral response that is triggered by awareness of the infection. Previous studies of such models have mostly focused on the impact of the response on the initial growth of an outbreak and the existence and location of endemic equilibria. Here we study the question whether this type of response is sufficient to prevent future flare-ups from low endemic levels if awareness is assumed to decay over time. In the ODE context, such flare-ups would translate into sustained oscillations with significant amplitudes. Our results show that such oscillations are ruled out in Susceptible-Aware-Infectious-Susceptible models with a single compartment of aware hosts, but can occur if we consider two distinct compartments of aware hosts who differ in their willingness to alert other susceptible hosts.

[The cholera epidemic of 1833 and mortality in Mexico City].

Science.gov (United States)

Velasco, M D

1992-01-01

The author examines the impact of the 1833 cholera epidemic in Mexico City, Mexico, on social, economic, and political aspects of life in that city. She finds that some five percent of the population died during the epidemic, and enumerates them by age and sex.

The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.

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José Lourenço

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning.

A Weighted Configuration Model and Inhomogeneous Epidemics

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Britton, Tom; Deijfen, Maria; Liljeros, Fredrik

2011-12-01

A random graph model with prescribed degree distribution and degree dependent edge weights is introduced. Each vertex is independently equipped with a random number of half-edges and each half-edge is assigned an integer valued weight according to a distribution that is allowed to depend on the degree of its vertex. Half-edges with the same weight are then paired randomly to create edges. An expression for the threshold for the appearance of a giant component in the resulting graph is derived using results on multi-type branching processes. The same technique also gives an expression for the basic reproduction number for an epidemic on the graph where the probability that a certain edge is used for transmission is a function of the edge weight (reflecting how closely `connected' the corresponding vertices are). It is demonstrated that, if vertices with large degree tend to have large (small) weights on their edges and if the transmission probability increases with the edge weight, then it is easier (harder) for the epidemic to take off compared to a randomized epidemic with the same degree and weight distribution. A recipe for calculating the probability of a large outbreak in the epidemic and the size of such an outbreak is also given. Finally, the model is fitted to three empirical weighted networks of importance for the spread of contagious diseases and it is shown that R 0 can be substantially over- or underestimated if the correlation between degree and weight is not taken into account.

Impact of the infectious period on epidemics

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Wilkinson, Robert R.; Sharkey, Kieran J.

2018-05-01

The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise, message passing, and spatial models as special cases. For this model, we prove a monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period (with fixed mean) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. For certain families of distributions, this result implies that epidemic severity is decreasing with respect to the variance of the infectious period. The striking importance of this relationship is demonstrated numerically. We then prove, with a fixed basic reproductive ratio (R0), a monotonic relationship between the variability of the posterior transmission probability (which is a function of the infectious period) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. Thus again, even when R0 is fixed, variability of the infectious period tends to dampen the epidemic. Numerical results illustrate this but indicate the relationship is weaker. We then show how our results apply to message passing, pairwise, and Kermack-McKendrick epidemic models, even when they are not exactly consistent with the stochastic dynamics. For Poissonian contact processes, and arbitrarily distributed infectious periods, we demonstrate how systems of delay differential equations and ordinary differential equations can provide upper and lower bounds, respectively, for the probability that any given individual has been infected by any given time.

How heterogeneous susceptibility and recovery rates affect the spread of epidemics on networks

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Wei Gou

2017-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper, an extended heterogeneous SIR model is proposed, which generalizes the heterogeneous mean-field theory. Different from the traditional heterogeneous mean-field model only taking into account the heterogeneity of degree, our model considers not only the heterogeneity of degree but also the heterogeneity of susceptibility and recovery rates. Then, we analytically study the basic reproductive number and the final epidemic size. Combining with numerical simulations, it is found that the basic reproductive number depends on the mean of distributions of susceptibility and disease course when both of them are independent. If the mean of these two distributions is identical, increasing the variance of susceptibility may block the spread of epidemics, while the corresponding increase in the variance of disease course has little effect on the final epidemic size. It is also shown that positive correlations between individual susceptibility, course of disease and the square of degree make the population more vulnerable to epidemic and avail to the epidemic prevalence, whereas the negative correlations make the population less vulnerable and impede the epidemic prevalence. Keywords: Networks, Heterogeneity, Susceptibility, Recovery rates, Correlation, The basic reproductive number, The final epidemic size

Predicting St. Louis encephalitis virus epidemics: lessons from recent, and not so recent, outbreaks.

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Day, J F

2001-01-01

St. Louis encephalitis virus was first identified as the cause of human disease in North America after a large urban epidemic in St. Louis, Missouri, during the summer of 1933. Since then, numerous outbreaks of St. Louis encephalitis have occurred throughout the continent. In south Florida, a 1990 epidemic lasted from August 1990 through January 1991 and resulted in 226 clinical cases and 11 deaths in 28 counties. This epidemic severely disrupted normal activities throughout the southern half of the state for 5 months and adversely impacted tourism in the affected region. The accurate forecasting of mosquito-borne arboviral epidemics will help minimize their impact on urban and rural population centers. Epidemic predictability would help focus control efforts and public education about epidemic risks, transmission patterns, and elements of personal protection that reduce the probability of arboviral infection. Research associated with arboviral outbreaks has provided an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses associated with epidemic prediction. The purpose of this paper is to review lessons from past arboviral epidemics and determine how these observations might aid our ability to predict and respond to future outbreaks.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in mainland China dissected

NARCIS (Netherlands)

W.-C. Cao (Wu-Chun); S.J. de Vlas (Sake); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik)

2011-01-01

textabstractThis paper provides a review of a recently published series of studies that give a detailed and comprehensive documentation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in mainland China, which severely struck the country in the spring of 2003. The epidemic spanned a large

Factors affecting the HIV/AIDS epidemic: An ecological analysis of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Factors affecting the HIV/AIDS epidemic: An ecological analysis of global data. ... Backward multiple linear regression analysis identified the proportion of Muslims, physicians density, and adolescent fertility rate are as the three most prominent factors linked with the national HIV epidemic. Conclusions: The findings support ...

Two-stage effects of awareness cascade on epidemic spreading in multiplex networks

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Guo, Quantong; Jiang, Xin; Lei, Yanjun; Li, Meng; Ma, Yifang; Zheng, Zhiming

2015-01-01

Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. The dynamic process with human awareness is called awareness cascade, during which individuals exhibit herd-like behavior because they are making decisions based on the actions of other individuals [Borge-Holthoefer et al., J. Complex Networks 1, 3 (2013), 10.1093/comnet/cnt006]. In this paper, to investigate the epidemic spreading with awareness cascade, we propose a local awareness controlled contagion spreading model on multiplex networks. By theoretical analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach and numerical simulations, we find the emergence of an abrupt transition of epidemic threshold βc with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5 , which induces two-stage effects on epidemic threshold and the final epidemic size. These findings indicate that the increase of α can accelerate the outbreak of epidemics. Furthermore, a simple 1D lattice model is investigated to illustrate the two-stage-like sharp transition at αc≈0.5 . The results can give us a better understanding of why some epidemics cannot break out in reality and also provide a potential access to suppressing and controlling the awareness cascading systems.

Is thermogenesis a significant causal factor in preventing the "globesity" epidemic?

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Hansen, Jens Carl; Gilman, Andrew P; Odland, Jon Øyvind

2010-08-01

During the last four decades the world has experienced an epidemic of overweight individuals in affluent as well as developing countries. The WHO has predicted a "globesity epidemic" with more than 1 billion adults being overweight and at least 300 million of these being clinically obese. Obesity among children and adolescents is of great significance. From a global population perspective, this epidemic in weight gain and its sequelae are the largest public health problems identified to date and have very significant adverse implications for population health, and have by now almost reached the proportion of a pandemic. While genetic changes have been discussed as a cause of the epidemic, there has been too little time since its start to enable enough genetic adaptation to take place for this to provide a valid explanation. Traditionally positive energy balance and sedentary life style have been regarded as the primary causal factors; however, these factors have so far failed to provide explanations for the entire problem. For these reasons it seems warranted to investigate other possible co-factors contributing to the "globesity epidemic" and to find efficient strategies to counteract further increases in the size and nature of the epidemic. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a potential preventive co-factor, thermogenesis. Special attention has been paid to the influence of ambient temperature as a grossly neglected factor in the debate. As most people today live and work at ambient temperatures close to their body temperature (the thermal neutral point), we hypothesise that this is an important causal co-factor in the "globesity" epidemic. The hypothesis: The null hypothesis that adaptive thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue in adult humans is not significant for weight loss is rejected. We propose the hypothesis that homoeothermic living conditions close to the thermogenic neutral level is an important causal co-factor in the "Globesity" Epidemic

[MPOWER--strategy for fighting the global tobacco epidemic].

Science.gov (United States)

Kaleta, Dorota; Kozieł, Anna; Miśkiewicz, Paulina

2009-01-01

It is estimated that tobacco use may cause death of 5 million people in 2008, which is higher than the number of deaths attributed to tuberculosis (TB), HIV/AIDS and malaria taken together. By 2030, the number of deaths related to the tobacco epidemic could exceed annually even 8 million. Despite many difficulties, a growing number of countries undertake intensive actions aimed at tobacco control. The objective of this paper was to discuss the major objectives of the MPOWER Report issued by the World Health Organization (WHO). The MPOWER package consists a set of six key and most effective strategies for fighting the global tobacco epidemic: 1) Monitoring tobacco consumption and the effectiveness of preventive measures; 2) Protect people from tobacco smoke; 3) Offer help to quit tobacco use; 4) Warn about the dangers of tobacco; 5) Enforce bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship; and 6) Raise taxes on tobacco. It is proven that these strategies implemented in the compatible way, effectively decreases tobacco use. In addition, MPOWER comprises epidemiological data, information on implemented tobacco control measures and their efficiency. MPOWER is the only one document of a somewhat strategic nature that is a source of information on the spread of tobacco epidemic, as well as of suggestions concerning specific actions for supporting the fight against this epidemic.

Viral conductance : Quantifying the robustness of networks with respect to spread of epidemics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Youssef, M.; Kooij, R.E.; Scoglio, C.

2011-01-01

In this paper, we propose a novel measure, viral conductance (VC), to assess the robustness of complex networks with respect to the spread of SIS epidemics. In contrast to classical measures that assess the robustness of networks based on the epidemic threshold above which an epidemic takes place,

Epidemic extinction paths in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B.

2017-05-01

We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large fluctuations, the most probable or optimal path through a network that leads to a disease-free state from an endemic state, and the average extinction time in general configurations. Our predictions agree with Monte Carlo simulations on several networks, including synthetic weighted and degree-distributed networks with degree correlations, and an empirical high school contact network. In addition, our approach quantifies characteristic scaling patterns for the optimal path and distribution of large fluctuations, both near and away from the epidemic threshold, in networks with heterogeneous eigenvector centrality and degree distributions.

Eight challenges for network epidemic models

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Lorenzo Pellis

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Networks offer a fertile framework for studying the spread of infection in human and animal populations. However, owing to the inherent high-dimensionality of networks themselves, modelling transmission through networks is mathematically and computationally challenging. Even the simplest network epidemic models present unanswered questions. Attempts to improve the practical usefulness of network models by including realistic features of contact networks and of host–pathogen biology (e.g. waning immunity have made some progress, but robust analytical results remain scarce. A more general theory is needed to understand the impact of network structure on the dynamics and control of infection. Here we identify a set of challenges that provide scope for active research in the field of network epidemic models.

Evidence of molecular evolution driven by recombination events influencing tropism in a novel human adenovirus that causes epidemic keratoconjunctivitis.

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Michael P Walsh

2009-06-01

Full Text Available In 2005, a human adenovirus strain (formerly known as HAdV-D22/H8 but renamed here HAdV-D53 was isolated from an outbreak of epidemic keratoconjunctititis (EKC, a disease that is usually caused by HAdV-D8, -D19, or -D37, not HAdV-D22. To date, a complete change of tropism compared to the prototype has never been observed, although apparent recombinant strains of other viruses from species Human adenovirus D (HAdV-D have been described. The complete genome of HAdV-D53 was sequenced to elucidate recombination events that lead to the emergence of a viable and highly virulent virus with a modified tropism. Bioinformatic and phylogenetic analyses of this genome demonstrate that this adenovirus is a recombinant of HAdV-D8 (including the fiber gene encoding the primary cellular receptor binding site, HAdV-D22, (the epsilon determinant of the hexon gene, HAdV-D37 (including the penton base gene encoding the secondary cellular receptor binding site, and at least one unknown or unsequenced HAdV-D strain. Bootscanning analysis of the complete genomic sequence of this novel adenovirus, which we have re-named HAdV-D53, indicated at least five recombination events between the aforementioned adenoviruses. Intrahexon recombination sites perfectly framed the epsilon neutralization determinant that was almost identical to the HAdV-D22 prototype. Additional bootscan analysis of all HAdV-D hexon genes revealed recombinations in identical locations in several other adenoviruses. In addition, HAdV-D53 but not HAdV-D22 induced corneal inflammation in a mouse model. Serological analysis confirmed previous results and demonstrated that HAdV-D53 has a neutralization profile representative of the epsilon determinant of its hexon (HAdV-D22 and the fiber (HAdV-D8 proteins. Our recombinant hexon sequence is almost identical to the hexon sequences of the HAdV-D strain causing EKC outbreaks in Japan, suggesting that HAdV-D53 is pandemic as an emerging EKC agent. This documents

Reiter′s Disease - Clinical Profile of Epidemic Form

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H S Girgia

1980-01-01

Full Text Available Absence of urethritis need not exclude the possiblity of Reiter′s disease in young males where conjunctivitis and polyarthritis are cardinal features. Appearance of cutaneous lesion early in the course of the disease heralds a poor prognosis specially in the rare epidemic form of the disease. Two cases of Reiter′s disease are reported. Both belonged to the dysentric type of the disease; sometimes ref to as the epidemic form. Relatively high dose of steroids necessary to control symptoms.

Effective degree Markov-chain approach for discrete-time epidemic processes on uncorrelated networks.

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Cai, Chao-Ran; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Guan, Jian-Yue

2014-11-01

Recently, Gómez et al. proposed a microscopic Markov-chain approach (MMCA) [S. Gómez, J. Gómez-Gardeñes, Y. Moreno, and A. Arenas, Phys. Rev. E 84, 036105 (2011)PLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.84.036105] to the discrete-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic process and found that the epidemic prevalence obtained by this approach agrees well with that by simulations. However, we found that the approach cannot be straightforwardly extended to a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic process (due to its irreversible property), and the epidemic prevalences obtained by MMCA and Monte Carlo simulations do not match well when the infection probability is just slightly above the epidemic threshold. In this contribution we extend the effective degree Markov-chain approach, proposed for analyzing continuous-time epidemic processes [J. Lindquist, J. Ma, P. Driessche, and F. Willeboordse, J. Math. Biol. 62, 143 (2011)JMBLAJ0303-681210.1007/s00285-010-0331-2], to address discrete-time binary-state (SIS) or three-state (SIR) epidemic processes on uncorrelated complex networks. It is shown that the final epidemic size as well as the time series of infected individuals obtained from this approach agree very well with those by Monte Carlo simulations. Our results are robust to the change of different parameters, including the total population size, the infection probability, the recovery probability, the average degree, and the degree distribution of the underlying networks.

Vector Competence of American Mosquitoes for Three Strains of Zika Virus.

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James Weger-Lucarelli

2016-10-01

Full Text Available In 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV; Flaviviridae; Flavivirus emerged in the Americas, causing millions of infections in dozens of countries. The rapid spread of the virus and the association with disease outcomes such as Guillain-Barré syndrome and microcephaly make understanding transmission dynamics essential. Currently, there are no reports of vector competence (VC of American mosquitoes for ZIKV isolates from the Americas. Further, it is not clear whether ZIKV strains from other genetic lineages can be transmitted by American Aedes aegypti populations, and whether the scope of the current epidemic is in part facilitated by viral factors such as enhanced replicative fitness or increased vector competence. Therefore, we characterized replication of three ZIKV strains, one from each of the three phylogenetic clades in several cell lines and assessed their abilities to be transmitted by Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. Additionally, laboratory colonies of different Culex spp. were infected with an American outbreak strain of ZIKV to assess VC. Replication rates were variable and depended on virus strain, cell line and MOI. African strains used in this study outcompeted the American strain in vitro in both mammalian and mosquito cell culture. West and East African strains of ZIKV tested here were more efficiently transmitted by Ae. aegypti from Mexico than was the currently circulating American strain of the Asian lineage. Long-established laboratory colonies of Culex mosquitoes were not efficient ZIKV vectors. These data demonstrate the capacity for additional ZIKV strains to infect and replicate in American Aedes mosquitoes and suggest that neither enhanced virus replicative fitness nor virus adaptation to local vector mosquitoes seems likely to explain the extent and intensity of ZIKV transmission in the Americas.

On The Travelling Wave Solution For An SEIR Epidemic Disease ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We present the travelling wave solution for a Susceptible, Exposed, Infective and Removed (SEIR) epidemic disease model. For this SEIR model, the disease is driven by both the latent and infective class (the diffusion term is included in both classes). The population is closed. Keywords: Epidemic model, spatial spread, ...

Epidemic propagation on adaptive coevolutionary networks with preferential local-world reconnecting strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping; Gong Yong-Wang

2013-01-01

In the propagation of an epidemic in a population, individuals adaptively adjust their behavior to avoid the risk of an epidemic. Differently from existing studies where new links are established randomly, a local link is established preferentially in this paper. We propose a new preferentially reconnecting edge strategy depending on spatial distance (PR-SD). For the PR-SD strategy, the new link is established at random with probability p and in a shortest distance with the probability 1 − p. We establish the epidemic model on an adaptive network using Cellular Automata, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model by numerical simulations. The results show that the smaller the value of parameter p, the more difficult the epidemic spread is. The PR-SD strategy breaks long-range links and establishes as many short-range links as possible, which causes the network efficiency to decrease quickly and the propagation of the epidemic is restrained effectively. (general)

Dynamic behavior of the interaction between epidemics and cascades on heterogeneous networks

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Lurong; Jin, Xinyu; Xia, Yongxiang; Ouyang, Bo; Wu, Duanpo

2014-12-01

Epidemic spreading and cascading failure are two important dynamical processes on complex networks. They have been investigated separately for a long time. But in the real world, these two dynamics sometimes may interact with each other. In this paper, we explore a model combined with the SIR epidemic spreading model and a local load sharing cascading failure model. There exists a critical value of the tolerance parameter for which the epidemic with high infection probability can spread out and infect a fraction of the network in this model. When the tolerance parameter is smaller than the critical value, the cascading failure cuts off the abundance of paths and blocks the spreading of the epidemic locally. While the tolerance parameter is larger than the critical value, the epidemic spreads out and infects a fraction of the network. A method for estimating the critical value is proposed. In simulations, we verify the effectiveness of this method in the uncorrelated configuration model (UCM) scale-free networks.

Descriptive epidemiology of typhoid fever during an epidemic in Harare, Zimbabwe, 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Polonsky, Jonathan A; Martínez-Pino, Isabel; Nackers, Fabienne; Chonzi, Prosper; Manangazira, Portia; Van Herp, Michel; Maes, Peter; Porten, Klaudia; Luquero, Francisco J

2014-01-01

Typhoid fever remains a significant public health problem in developing countries. In October 2011, a typhoid fever epidemic was declared in Harare, Zimbabwe - the fourth enteric infection epidemic since 2008. To orient control activities, we described the epidemiology and spatiotemporal clustering of the epidemic in Dzivaresekwa and Kuwadzana, the two most affected suburbs of Harare. A typhoid fever case-patient register was analysed to describe the epidemic. To explore clustering, we constructed a dataset comprising GPS coordinates of case-patient residences and randomly sampled residential locations (spatial controls). The scale and significance of clustering was explored with Ripley K functions. Cluster locations were determined by a random labelling technique and confirmed using Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. We analysed data from 2570 confirmed and suspected case-patients, and found significant spatiotemporal clustering of typhoid fever in two non-overlapping areas, which appeared to be linked to environmental sources. Peak relative risk was more than six times greater than in areas lying outside the cluster ranges. Clusters were identified in similar geographical ranges by both random labelling and Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. The spatial scale at which typhoid fever clustered was highly localised, with significant clustering at distances up to 4.5 km and peak levels at approximately 3.5 km. The epicentre of infection transmission shifted from one cluster to the other during the course of the epidemic. This study demonstrated highly localised clustering of typhoid fever during an epidemic in an urban African setting, and highlights the importance of spatiotemporal analysis for making timely decisions about targetting prevention and control activities and reinforcing treatment during epidemics. This approach should be integrated into existing surveillance systems to facilitate early detection of epidemics and identify their spatial range.

Evaluating neighborhood structures for modeling intercity diffusion of large-scale dengue epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Tzai-Hung; Hsu, Ching-Shun; Hu, Ming-Che

2018-05-03

Dengue fever is a vector-borne infectious disease that is transmitted by contact between vector mosquitoes and susceptible hosts. The literature has addressed the issue on quantifying the effect of individual mobility on dengue transmission. However, there are methodological concerns in the spatial regression model configuration for examining the effect of intercity-scale human mobility on dengue diffusion. The purposes of the study are to investigate the influence of neighborhood structures on intercity epidemic progression from pre-epidemic to epidemic periods and to compare definitions of different neighborhood structures for interpreting the spread of dengue epidemics. We proposed a framework for assessing the effect of model configurations on dengue incidence in 2014 and 2015, which were the most severe outbreaks in 70 years in Taiwan. Compared with the conventional model configuration in spatial regression analysis, our proposed model used a radiation model, which reflects population flow between townships, as a spatial weight to capture the structure of human mobility. The results of our model demonstrate better model fitting performance, indicating that the structure of human mobility has better explanatory power in dengue diffusion than the geometric structure of administration boundaries and geographic distance between centroids of cities. We also identified spatial-temporal hierarchy of dengue diffusion: dengue incidence would be influenced by its immediate neighboring townships during pre-epidemic and epidemic periods, and also with more distant neighbors (based on mobility) in pre-epidemic periods. Our findings suggest that the structure of population mobility could more reasonably capture urban-to-urban interactions, which implies that the hub cities could be a "bridge" for large-scale transmission and make townships that immediately connect to hub cities more vulnerable to dengue epidemics.

Impacts of clustering on interacting epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Bing; Cao, Lang; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2012-07-07

Since community structures in real networks play a major role for the epidemic spread, we therefore explore two interacting diseases spreading in networks with community structures. As a network model with community structures, we propose a random clique network model composed of different orders of cliques. We further assume that each disease spreads only through one type of cliques; this assumption corresponds to the issue that two diseases spread inside communities and outside them. Considering the relationship between the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and the bond percolation theory, we apply this theory to clique random networks under the assumption that the occupation probability is clique-type dependent, which is consistent with the observation that infection rates inside a community and outside it are different, and obtain a number of statistical properties for this model. Two interacting diseases that compete the same hosts are also investigated, which leads to a natural generalization of analyzing an arbitrary number of infectious diseases. For two-disease dynamics, the clustering effect is hypersensitive to the cohesiveness and concentration of cliques; this illustrates the impacts of clustering and the composition of subgraphs in networks on epidemic behavior. The analysis of coexistence/bistability regions provides significant insight into the relationship between the network structure and the potential epidemic prevalence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

epiDMS: Data Management and Analytics for Decision-Making From Epidemic Spread Simulation Ensembles.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Sicong; Poccia, Silvestro; Candan, K Selçuk; Chowell, Gerardo; Sapino, Maria Luisa

2016-12-01

Carefully calibrated large-scale computational models of epidemic spread represent a powerful tool to support the decision-making process during epidemic emergencies. Epidemic models are being increasingly used for generating forecasts of the spatial-temporal progression of epidemics at different spatial scales and for assessing the likely impact of different intervention strategies. However, the management and analysis of simulation ensembles stemming from large-scale computational models pose challenges, particularly when dealing with multiple interdependent parameters, spanning multiple layers and geospatial frames, affected by complex dynamic processes operating at different resolutions. We describe and illustrate with examples a novel epidemic simulation data management system, epiDMS, that was developed to address the challenges that arise from the need to generate, search, visualize, and analyze, in a scalable manner, large volumes of epidemic simulation ensembles and observations during the progression of an epidemic. epiDMS is a publicly available system that facilitates management and analysis of large epidemic simulation ensembles. epiDMS aims to fill an important hole in decision-making during healthcare emergencies by enabling critical services with significant economic and health impact. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

PREDICTION OF DENGUE FEVER EPIDEMIC SPREADING USING DYNAMICS TRANSMISSION VECTOR MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Retno Widyaningrum

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Increasing number of dengue cases in Surabaya shows that its city has high potential of dengue fever epidemic. Although some policies were designed by Surabaya Health Department, such as fogging and mosquito’s nest eradication, but these efforts still out of target because of inaccurate predictions. Ineffectiveness eradication of dengue fever epidemic is caused by lack of information and knowledge on environmental conditions in Surabaya. Developing spread and prediction system to minimize dengue fever epidemic is necessary to be conducted immediately. Spread and prediction system can improve eradication and prevention accuracy. The transmission dynamics vector simulation will be used as an approach to draw a complex system ofmosquito life cycle in which involve a lot offactors. Dynamics transmission model used to build model in mosquito model (oviposition rate and pre adult mosquito, infected and death cases in dengue fever. The model of mosquito and infected population can represent system. The output of this research is website of spread and prediction system of dengue fever epidemics to predict growth rate of Aedes Aegypti mosquito, infected, and death population because of dengue fever epidemics. The deviation of infected population is 0,519. The model of death cases in dengue fever is less precision with the deviation 1,229. Death cases model need improvement by adding some variables that influence to dengue fever death cases. Spread ofdengue fever prediction will help the government, health department to decide the best policies in minimizing the spread ofdengue fever epidemics.

Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea in Europe: In-Detail Analyses of Disease Dynamics and Molecular Epidemiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanke, Dennis; Pohlmann, Anne; Sauter-Louis, Carola; Höper, Dirk; Stadler, Julia; Ritzmann, Mathias; Steinrigl, Adi; Schwarz, Bernd-Andreas; Akimkin, Valerij; Fux, Robert; Blome, Sandra; Beer, Martin

2017-07-06

Porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) is an acute and highly contagious enteric disease of swine caused by the eponymous virus (PEDV) which belongs to the genus Alphacoronavirus within the Coronaviridae virus family. Following the disastrous outbreaks in Asia and the United States, PEDV has been detected also in Europe. In order to better understand the overall situation, the molecular epidemiology, and factors that might influence the most variable disease impact; 40 samples from swine feces were collected from different PED outbreaks in Germany and other European countries and sequenced by shot-gun next-generation sequencing. A total of 38 new PEDV complete coding sequences were generated. When compared on a global scale, all investigated sequences from Central and South-Eastern Europe formed a rather homogeneous PEDV S INDEL cluster, suggesting a recent re-introduction. However, in-detail analyses revealed two new clusters and putative ancestor strains. Based on the available background data, correlations between clusters and location, farm type or clinical presentation could not be established. Additionally, the impact of secondary infections was explored using the metagenomic data sets. While several coinfections were observed, no correlation was found with disease courses. However, in addition to the PEDV genomes, ten complete viral coding sequences from nine different data sets were reconstructed each representing new virus strains. In detail, three pasivirus A strains, two astroviruses, a porcine sapelovirus, a kobuvirus, a porcine torovirus, a posavirus, and an enterobacteria phage were almost fully sequenced.

Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea in Europe: In-Detail Analyses of Disease Dynamics and Molecular Epidemiology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dennis Hanke

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED is an acute and highly contagious enteric disease of swine caused by the eponymous virus (PEDV which belongs to the genus Alphacoronavirus within the Coronaviridae virus family. Following the disastrous outbreaks in Asia and the United States, PEDV has been detected also in Europe. In order to better understand the overall situation, the molecular epidemiology, and factors that might influence the most variable disease impact; 40 samples from swine feces were collected from different PED outbreaks in Germany and other European countries and sequenced by shot-gun next-generation sequencing. A total of 38 new PEDV complete coding sequences were generated. When compared on a global scale, all investigated sequences from Central and South-Eastern Europe formed a rather homogeneous PEDV S INDEL cluster, suggesting a recent re-introduction. However, in-detail analyses revealed two new clusters and putative ancestor strains. Based on the available background data, correlations between clusters and location, farm type or clinical presentation could not be established. Additionally, the impact of secondary infections was explored using the metagenomic data sets. While several coinfections were observed, no correlation was found with disease courses. However, in addition to the PEDV genomes, ten complete viral coding sequences from nine different data sets were reconstructed each representing new virus strains. In detail, three pasivirus A strains, two astroviruses, a porcine sapelovirus, a kobuvirus, a porcine torovirus, a posavirus, and an enterobacteria phage were almost fully sequenced.

An epidemic of tuberculosis with a high rate of tuberculin anergy among a population previously unexposed to tuberculosis, the Yanomami Indians of the Brazilian Amazon

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Sousa, Alexandra O.; Salem, Julia I.; Lee, Francis K.; Verçosa, Maria C.; Cruaud, Philippe; Bloom, Barry R.; Lagrange, Philippe H.; David, Hugo L.

1997-01-01

A survey of an emerging tuberculosis epidemic among the Yanomami Indians of the Amazonian rain forest provided a unique opportunity to study the impact of tuberculosis on a population isolated from contact with the tubercle bacillus for millennia until the mid-1960s. Within the Yanomami population, an extraordinary high prevalence of active tuberculosis (6.4% of 625 individuals clinically examined) was observed, indicating a high susceptibility to disease, even among bacille Calmette–Guérin-vaccinated individuals. Observational studies on cell-mediated and humoral immune responses of the Yanomami Indians compared with contemporary residents of the region suggest profound differences in immunological responsiveness to Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. Among the Yanomami, a very high prevalence of tuberculin skin test anergy was found. Of patients with active tuberculosis, 46% had purified protein derivative of tuberculosis reactions Yanomami also had higher titers of antibodies against M. tuberculosis glycolipid antigens (>70%) than the control subjects comprised of Brazilians of European descent (14%). The antibodies were mostly of the IgM isotype. Among the tuberculosis patients who also produced IgG antibodies, the titers of IgG4 were significantly higher among the Yanomami than in the control population. Although it was not possible to analyze T-cell responses or patterns of lymphokine production in vitro because of the remoteness of the villages from laboratory facilities, the results suggest that the first encounter of the Yanomami Indian population with tuberculosis engenders a diminished cell-mediated immune response and an increased production antibody responses, relative to other populations with extensive previous contact with the pathogen. These findings suggest that tuberculosis may represent a powerful selective pressure on human evolution that over centuries has shaped the nature of human immune responses to infection. PMID:9371828

An epidemic of tuberculosis with a high rate of tuberculin anergy among a population previously unexposed to tuberculosis, the Yanomami Indians of the Brazilian Amazon.

Science.gov (United States)

Sousa, A O; Salem, J I; Lee, F K; Verçosa, M C; Cruaud, P; Bloom, B R; Lagrange, P H; David, H L

1997-11-25

A survey of an emerging tuberculosis epidemic among the Yanomami Indians of the Amazonian rain forest provided a unique opportunity to study the impact of tuberculosis on a population isolated from contact with the tubercle bacillus for millennia until the mid-1960s. Within the Yanomami population, an extraordinary high prevalence of active tuberculosis (6.4% of 625 individuals clinically examined) was observed, indicating a high susceptibility to disease, even among bacille Calmette-Guérin-vaccinated individuals. Observational studies on cell-mediated and humoral immune responses of the Yanomami Indians compared with contemporary residents of the region suggest profound differences in immunological responsiveness to Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. Among the Yanomami, a very high prevalence of tuberculin skin test anergy was found. Of patients with active tuberculosis, 46% had purified protein derivative of tuberculosis reactions Yanomami also had higher titers of antibodies against M. tuberculosis glycolipid antigens (>70%) than the control subjects comprised of Brazilians of European descent (14%). The antibodies were mostly of the IgM isotype. Among the tuberculosis patients who also produced IgG antibodies, the titers of IgG4 were significantly higher among the Yanomami than in the control population. Although it was not possible to analyze T-cell responses or patterns of lymphokine production in vitro because of the remoteness of the villages from laboratory facilities, the results suggest that the first encounter of the Yanomami Indian population with tuberculosis engenders a diminished cell-mediated immune response and an increased production antibody responses, relative to other populations with extensive previous contact with the pathogen. These findings suggest that tuberculosis may represent a powerful selective pressure on human evolution that over centuries has shaped the nature of human immune responses to infection.

Defining epidemics in computer simulation models: How do definitions influence conclusions?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carolyn Orbann

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Computer models have proven to be useful tools in studying epidemic disease in human populations. Such models are being used by a broader base of researchers, and it has become more important to ensure that descriptions of model construction and data analyses are clear and communicate important features of model structure. Papers describing computer models of infectious disease often lack a clear description of how the data are aggregated and whether or not non-epidemic runs are excluded from analyses. Given that there is no concrete quantitative definition of what constitutes an epidemic within the public health literature, each modeler must decide on a strategy for identifying epidemics during simulation runs. Here, an SEIR model was used to test the effects of how varying the cutoff for considering a run an epidemic changes potential interpretations of simulation outcomes. Varying the cutoff from 0% to 15% of the model population ever infected with the illness generated significant differences in numbers of dead and timing variables. These results are important for those who use models to form public health policy, in which questions of timing or implementation of interventions might be answered using findings from computer simulation models.

Epidemic risk from cholera introductions into Mexico.

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Moore, Sean M; Shannon, Kerry L; Zelaya, Carla E; Azman, Andrew S; Lessler, Justin

2014-02-21

Stemming from the 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti, cholera transmission in Hispaniola continues with over 40,000 cases in 2013. The presence of an ongoing cholera outbreak in the region poses substantial risks to countries throughout the Americas, particularly in areas with poor infrastructure. Since September 9, 2013 nearly 200 cholera cases have been reported in Mexico, as a result of introductions from Hispaniola or Cuba. There appear to have been multiple introductions into Mexico resulting in outbreaks of 2 to over 150 people. Using publicly available data, we attempt to estimate the reproductive number (R) of cholera in Mexico, and thereby assess the potential of continued introductions to establish a sustained epidemic. We estimate R for cholera in Mexico to be between 0.8 to 1.1, depending on the number of introductions, with the confidence intervals for the most plausible estimates crossing 1. These results suggest that the efficiency of cholera transmission in some regions of Mexico is near that necessary for a large epidemic. Intensive surveillance, evaluation of water and sanitation infrastructure, and planning for rapid response are warranted steps to avoid potential large epidemics in the region.

Connecting the obesity and the narcissism epidemics.

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Lemaitre, Bruno

2016-10-01

Obesity and metabolic syndromes are major threats to health in both developed and developing countries. This opinion article is a holistic attempt to understand the obesity epidemic, by connecting it to the widespread narcissism in society. The narcissism epidemic refers to an increased prevalence of status-striving individualism and a decreased sense of community, observed in Westerns populations and spreading worldwide. Based on social personality and evolutionary psychology approaches, I speculate that this rise of narcissism underlies a steep social hierarchy resulting in increase of social stress. This social stress markedly affects individuals who are sensitive to social hierarchy dominance due to their personality, yet are relegated at a lower social position. I speculate that over-eating is one major mechanism for coping with this stress, and discuss the possibility that visceral fat may constitute an adaptive behaviour to the lower social hierarchy position, which is perceived as unjust. Connecting the prevalence of obesity to the narcissism epidemic allows for a more thorough examination of factors, which contribute to obesity, which includes early difficult childhood experience, lower rank, and the overall competitive framework of the society. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

[Fight against epidemics: Austrian prisoners in Troyes].

Science.gov (United States)

Hetzel, Géraldine

2014-01-01

The victories near Ulm and Elchingen, where the Napoleonic army took 60000 prisoners between 15th and 20th of October 1805, lead to the arrival at Troyes (county "Aube") of nearly 2000 Austrian soldiers to be held inside former monasteries among whose, mainly the Jacobinians casern where more than half of them stayed. At the beginning of 1806, the government sent the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Desgenettes on an inspection tour to control the state of health of the populations of places where foreign prisoners were held, which lead him through several counties of the North-eastern part of France, where he surveyed several diseases ranging from all kinds offevers up to dysentery, scabies or gangrenes. With the means of acid fumigations invented by the chemist Guyton Morveau from Dijon, the authorities took care of combating and preventing the epidemics in the caserns. As soon as October 1805, the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Pigeotte from Troyes wrote to the county governor his observations recommending a better diet, airing of the rooms and also calls to take some exercise. All these precepts showed an astonishing modernity.

An epidemic of sylvatic yellow fever in the southeast region of Maranhao State, Brazil, 1993-1994: epidemiologic and entomologic findings.

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Vasconcelos, P F; Rodrigues, S G; Degallier, N; Moraes, M A; da Rosa, J F; da Rosa, E S; Mondet, B; Barros, V L; da Rosa, A P

1997-08-01

Yellow fever virus transmission was very active in Maranhao State in Brazil in 1993 and 1994. An investigation was carried out to evaluate the magnitude of the epidemic. In 1993, a total of 932 people was examined for yellow fever from Maranhao: 70 were positive serologically, histopathologically, and/or by virus isolation, and another four cases were diagnosed clinically and epidemiologically. In Mirador (17,565 inhabitants), the incidence was 3.5 per 1,000 people (case fatality rate [number of deaths/number of cases diagnosed] = 16.4%), while in a rural yellow fever risk area (14,659 inhabitants), the incidence was 4.2 and the case-fatality rate was 16.1% (10 of 62). A total of 45.2% (28 of 62) asymptomatic infections were registered. In 1994, 49 serum samples were obtained and 16 cases were confirmed (two by virus isolation, two by seroconversion, and 12 by serology). No fatal cases were reported. In 1993, 936 potential yellow fever vectors were captured in Mirador and a single strain was isolated from a pool of Haemagogus janthinomys (infection rate = 0.16%). In 1994, 16 strains were isolated from 1,318 Hg. janthinomys (infection rate = 1.34%) and one Sabethes chloropterus (infection rate = 1.67%). Our results suggest that this was the most extensive outbreak of yellow fever in the last 20 years in Brazil. It is also clear that the lack of vaccination was the principal reason for the epidemic, which occurred between April and June, during the rainy season, a period in which the mosquito population in the forest increases.

The threshold of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing

2016-11-01

In this paper, we study the threshold dynamics of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination. We obtain sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the epidemic. The threshold between persistence in the mean and extinction of the stochastic system is also obtained. Compared with the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold affected by the white noise is smaller than the basic reproduction number Rbar0 of the deterministic system. Results show that time delay has important effects on the persistence and extinction of the epidemic.

Job strain and time to pregnancy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hjollund, N H; Kold Jensen, T; Bonde, Jens Peter

1998-01-01

The association between fertility and job strain defined as high job demands and low job control has not previously been studied. A follow-up study was conducted with prospective collection of information on job strain among women, achievement of pregnancy, and potential confounding variables....

Mechanisms of first-line antimicrobial resistance in multi-drug and extensively drug resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

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Navisha Dookie

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In South Africa, drug resistant tuberculosis is a major public health crisis in the face of the colossal HIV pandemic. Methods In an attempt to understand the distribution of drug resistance in our setting, we analysed the rpoB, katG, inhA, pncA and embB genes associated with resistance to key drugs used in the treatment of tuberculosis in clinical isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the KwaZulu-Natal province. Results Classical mutations were detected in the katG, inhA and embB genes associated with resistance to isoniazid and ethambutol. Diverse mutations were recorded in the multidrug resistant (MDR and extensively drug resistant (XDR isolates for the rpoB and pncA gene associated with resistance to rifampicin and pyrazinamide. Conclusions M.tuberculosis strains circulating in our setting display a combination of previously observed mutations, each mediating resistance to a different drug. The MDR and XDR TB isolates analysed in this study displayed classical mutations linked to INH and EMB resistance, whilst diverse mutations were linked to RIF and PZA resistance. The similarity of the XDR strains confirms reports of the clonality of the XDR epidemic. The successful dissemination of the drug resistant strains in the province underscores the need for rapid diagnostics to effectively diagnose drug resistance and guide treatment.

[History of development of the live poliomyelitis vaccine from Sabin attenuated strains in 1959 and idea of poliomyelitis eradication].

Science.gov (United States)

Lashkevich, V A

2013-01-01

In 1958 Poliomyelitis Institute in Moscow and Institute of Experimental Medicine in St. Petersburg received from A. Sabin the attenuated strains of poliomyelitis virus. The characteristics of the strains were thoroughly studied by A. A. Smorodintsev and coworkers. They found that the virulence of the strains fluctuated slightly in 10 consecutive passages through the intestine of the non-immune children. A part of the Sabin material was used by A. A. Smorodintsev and M. P. Chumakov in the beginning of 1959 for immunizing approximately 40000 children in Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia. Epidemic poliomyelitis rate in these republics decreased from approximately 1000 cases yearly before vaccination to less than 20 in the third quarter of 1959. This was a convincing proof of the efficacy and safety of the vaccine from the attenuated Sabin strains. In 1959, according to A. Sabin's recommendation, a technology of live vaccine production was developed at the Poliomyelitis Institute, and several experimental lots of vaccine were prepared. In the second part of 1959, 13.5 million children in USSR were immunized. The epidemic poliomyelitis rate decreased 3-5 times in different regions without paralytic cases, which could be attributed to the vaccination. These results were the final proof of high efficiency and safety of live poliomyelitis vaccine from the attenuated Sabin strains. Based on these results, A. Sabin and M. P. Chumakov suggested in 1960 the idea of poliomyelitis eradication using mass immunization of children with live vaccine. 72 million persons up to 20 years old were vaccinated in USSR in 1960 with a 5 times drop in the paralytic rate. 50-year-long use of live vaccine results in poliomyelitis eradication in almost all countries worldwide. More than 10 million children were rescued from the death and palsy. Poliomyelitis eradication in a few countries where it still exists depends not on medical services but is defined by the attitude of their leaders to fight

Spread of epidemic disease on networks

Science.gov (United States)

Newman, M. E.

2002-07-01

The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the so-called susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) models can be solved exactly on a wide variety of networks. In addition to the standard but unrealistic case of fixed infectiveness time and fixed and uncorrelated probability of transmission between all pairs of individuals, we solve cases in which times and probabilities are nonuniform and correlated. We also consider one simple case of an epidemic in a structured population, that of a sexually transmitted disease in a population divided into men and women. We confirm the correctness of our exact solutions with numerical simulations of SIR epidemics on networks.

A break in the obesity epidemic?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Visscher, T L S; Heitmann, B L; Rissanen, A

2015-01-01

Recent epidemiologic papers are presenting prevalence data suggesting breaks and decreases in obesity rates. However, before concluding that the obesity epidemic is not increasing anymore, the validity of the presented data should be discussed more thoroughly. We had a closer look into the litera......, focusing on trends in waist circumference rather than BMI leads to a less optimistic conclusion: the public health problem of obesity is still increasing.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 22 July 2014; doi:10.1038/ijo.2014.98....... into the literature presented in recent reviews to address the major potential biases and distortions, and to develop insights about how to interpret the presented suggestions for a potential break in the obesity epidemic. Decreasing participation rates, the use of reported rather than measured data and small sample...

The threshold of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with temporary immunity

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Qun; Chen, Qingmei; Jiang, Daqing

2016-05-01

This paper is concerned with the asymptotic properties of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with temporary immunity. Sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the epidemic are established. The threshold between persistence in the mean and extinction of the epidemic is obtained. Compared with the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold affected by the white noise is smaller than the basic reproduction number R0 of the deterministic system.

Retrospective Analysis of the 2014-2015 Ebola Epidemic in Liberia.

Science.gov (United States)

Atkins, Katherine E; Pandey, Abhishek; Wenzel, Natasha S; Skrip, Laura; Yamin, Dan; Nyenswah, Tolbert G; Fallah, Mosoka; Bawo, Luke; Medlock, Jan; Altice, Frederick L; Townsend, Jeffrey; Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L; Galvani, Alison P

2016-04-01

The 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic has been the most protracted and devastating in the history of the disease. To prevent future outbreaks on this scale, it is imperative to understand the reasons that led to eventual disease control. Here, we evaluated the shifts of Ebola dynamics at national and local scales during the epidemic in Liberia. We used a transmission model calibrated to epidemiological data between June 9 and December 31, 2014, to estimate the extent of community and hospital transmission. We found that despite varied local epidemic patterns, community transmission was reduced by 40-80% in all the counties analyzed. Our model suggests that the tapering of the epidemic was achieved through reductions in community transmission, rather than accumulation of immune individuals through asymptomatic infection and unreported cases. Although the times at which this transmission reduction occurred in the majority of the Liberian counties started before any large expansion in hospital capacity and the distribution of home protection kits, it remains difficult to associate the presence of interventions with reductions in Ebola incidence. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

[Scabies epidemic in a sheltered workshop--what should be done?].

Science.gov (United States)

Mayer, J; Wever, S; Lurz, C; Bröcker, E B

2000-02-01

Scabies is an infectious parasitic skin disease with a notable rising incidence in Germany. The disease is usually transmitted by close physical contact, but indirect spread e.g. by bedding is also possible. Due to its contagiousness, introduction of scabies into crowding living facilities, such as dormitories or kindergartens, can easily cause an epidemic outbreak. We describe an epidemic of scabies in a workshop for handicapped people in February 1998. A worker with severe scabies reported that numerous colleagues in both workshop and the associated hostel had complained of pruritus for months and that some of them already had undergone scabicide treatment. The number of contacts (staff, colleagues, friends, attendants, family) of our patient and the other already affected people was more than 460. The management of the workshop asked for help in handling the epidemic. We describe the cooperative efforts of the management, as well as hospital and private dermatologists, to evaluate all potential contacts and present a concept of treatment for the termination of such an epidemic outbreak of scabies.

Multiple effects of self-protection on the spreading of epidemics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Zhigang; Zhang, Haifeng; Wang, Zhen

2014-01-01

Aside from the commonly considered strategies: vaccination or risk, in this work another basic policy self-protection strategy is incorporated into research of epidemics spreading. Then within the network-theoretical framework, we mainly explore the impact of self-protection strategy on the epidemic size and the eradication of infection. Interestingly, we find that the self-protection influence is multiple: given that the effectiveness of the self-protective strategy is negligible, nobody is willing to take up this act, both vaccination and risk traits dominate the whole system; On the contrary, when the effectiveness of self-protective policy is elevated, it becomes a popular strategy and the size of epidemic can be controlled at a relatively low level. However, one worse situation is present as well: when the effectiveness of self-protection is moderate, the infection probability and epidemic size can reach the maximal level. This is because that, under such a case, the emergence of the self-protective strategy neither inspires the enthusiasm of vaccination nor provides ideal effect

[Persistence of Pseudomonas aeruginosa strains in patients of Federal Scientific Center of Transplantology and Artificial Organs].

Science.gov (United States)

Avetisian, L R; Voronina, O L; Chernukha, M Iu; Kunda, M S; Gabrielian, N I; Lunin, V G; Shaginian, I A

2012-01-01

Study genetic diversity of P. aeruginosa strains persisting in patients of Federal Scientific Center of Transplantology and Artificial Organs, and main factors facilitating persistence of strains in the hospital. 136 P. aeruginosa strains isolated from patients of the center for 3 years 6 months were genotyped by RAPD-PCR and MLST methods and studied for antibiotics resistance and presence of integrons. Genetic diversity of strains persisting in hospital was established. Strains of main genotypes ST235, ST446, ST598 were isolated from patients of various surgical departments. Patients were shown to be colonized by these strains during stay in reanimation and intensive therapy department (RITD) of the hospital. Strains of dominant genotype 235 were isolated from 47% of examined patients during more than 3 years. Only genotype 235 strains contained integron with cassettes of antibiotics resistance genes blaGES5 and aadA6 in the genome. The data obtained show that over the period of observation in the center 1 clone of P. aeruginosa that belonged to genotype 235 dominated. This clone was endemic for this hospital and in the process of prolonged persistence became more resistant to antibiotics. Colonization of patients with these strains occurs in RITD. This confirms the necessity of constant monitoring of hospital microflora for advance detection of potentially dangerous epidemic hospital strains able to cause hospital infections.

[Standard algorithm of molecular typing of Yersinia pestis strains].

Science.gov (United States)

Eroshenko, G A; Odinokov, G N; Kukleva, L M; Pavlova, A I; Krasnov, Ia M; Shavina, N Iu; Guseva, N P; Vinogradova, N A; Kutyrev, V V

2012-01-01

Development of the standard algorithm of molecular typing of Yersinia pestis that ensures establishing of subspecies, biovar and focus membership of the studied isolate. Determination of the characteristic strain genotypes of plague infectious agent of main and nonmain subspecies from various natural foci of plague of the Russian Federation and the near abroad. Genotyping of 192 natural Y. pestis strains of main and nonmain subspecies was performed by using PCR methods, multilocus sequencing and multilocus analysis of variable tandem repeat number. A standard algorithm of molecular typing of plague infectious agent including several stages of Yersinia pestis differentiation by membership: in main and nonmain subspecies, various biovars of the main subspecies, specific subspecies; natural foci and geographic territories was developed. The algorithm is based on 3 typing methods--PCR, multilocus sequence typing and multilocus analysis of variable tandem repeat number using standard DNA targets--life support genes (terC, ilvN, inv, glpD, napA, rhaS and araC) and 7 loci of variable tandem repeats (ms01, ms04, ms06, ms07, ms46, ms62, ms70). The effectiveness of the developed algorithm is shown on the large number of natural Y. pestis strains. Characteristic sequence types of Y. pestis strains of various subspecies and biovars as well as MLVA7 genotypes of strains from natural foci of plague of the Russian Federation and the near abroad were established. The application of the developed algorithm will increase the effectiveness of epidemiologic monitoring of plague infectious agent, and analysis of epidemics and outbreaks of plague with establishing the source of origin of the strain and routes of introduction of the infection.

[Paediatric emergencies; example of the management of winter epidemics].

Science.gov (United States)

Mercier, Jean-Christophe; Bellettre, Xavier; Lejay, Émilie; Desmarest, Marie; Titomanlio, Luigi

2015-01-01

Every year, epidemics of viral bronchiolitis and gastroenteritis occur with a significant increase in the number of visits (by a factor 1.8) and hospitalisations that can over-exceed bed capacity leading to transfer sick children to other hospitals. This kind of hospital 'crisis' is not limited to paediatrics, big cities or western nations. It is a worldwide worrying problem. Because our hospital sits in the Northern districts of Paris where a large community of m.ncants lives in poverty, our number of visits is high (mean 250 per day), and winter epidemics further jeopardise the difficult equilibrium achieved between quality management and waiting times. Thus, we have taken various initiatives in terms of organisation of the paediatric emergency department and other wards, including a "fast track" clinic, the opening of beds dedicated to winter epidemics, the institution of a "bed manager" in order to more easily find a bed, and a larger use of home hospitalisations. Furthermore, we created a specific committee which may decide on various indicators of tension whether it is necessary to cancel programmed hospitalisations or surgery.in order to resolve the emergency crisis. This kind of organisation can serve as a model for other hospitals facing winter epidemics crises.

Dynamics of cholera epidemics with impulsive vaccination and disinfection.

Science.gov (United States)

Sisodiya, Omprakash Singh; Misra, O P; Dhar, Joydip

2018-04-01

Waterborne diseases have a tremendous influence on human life. The contaminated drinking water causes water-borne disease like cholera. Pulse vaccination is an important and effective strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. A waterborne disease like cholera can also be controlled by using impulse technique. In this paper, we have proposed a delayed SEIRB epidemic model with impulsive vaccination and disinfection. We have studied the pulse vaccination strategy and sanitation to control the cholera disease. The existence and stability of the disease-free and endemic periodic solution are investigated both analytically and numerically. It is shown that there exists an infection-free periodic solution, using the impulsive dynamical system defined by the stroboscopic map. It is observed that the infection-free periodic solution is globally attractive when the impulse period is less than some critical value. From the analysis of the model, we have obtained a sufficient condition for the permanence of the epidemic with pulse vaccination. The main highlight of this paper is to introduce impulse technique along with latent period into the SEIRB epidemic model to investigate the role of pulse vaccination and disinfection on the dynamics of the cholera epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A wide extent of inter-strain diversity in virulent and vaccine strains of alphaherpesviruses.

Science.gov (United States)

Szpara, Moriah L; Tafuri, Yolanda R; Parsons, Lance; Shamim, S Rafi; Verstrepen, Kevin J; Legendre, Matthieu; Enquist, L W

2011-10-01

Alphaherpesviruses are widespread in the human population, and include herpes simplex virus 1 (HSV-1) and 2, and varicella zoster virus (VZV). These viral pathogens cause epithelial lesions, and then infect the nervous system to cause lifelong latency, reactivation, and spread. A related veterinary herpesvirus, pseudorabies (PRV), causes similar disease in livestock that result in significant economic losses. Vaccines developed for VZV and PRV serve as useful models for the development of an HSV-1 vaccine. We present full genome sequence comparisons of the PRV vaccine strain Bartha, and two virulent PRV isolates, Kaplan and Becker. These genome sequences were determined by high-throughput sequencing and assembly, and present new insights into the attenuation of a mammalian alphaherpesvirus vaccine strain. We find many previously unknown coding differences between PRV Bartha and the virulent strains, including changes to the fusion proteins gH and gB, and over forty other viral proteins. Inter-strain variation in PRV protein sequences is much closer to levels previously observed for HSV-1 than for the highly stable VZV proteome. Almost 20% of the PRV genome contains tandem short sequence repeats (SSRs), a class of nucleic acids motifs whose length-variation has been associated with changes in DNA binding site efficiency, transcriptional regulation, and protein interactions. We find SSRs throughout the herpesvirus family, and provide the first global characterization of SSRs in viruses, both within and between strains. We find SSR length variation between different isolates of PRV and HSV-1, which may provide a new mechanism for phenotypic variation between strains. Finally, we detected a small number of polymorphic bases within each plaque-purified PRV strain, and we characterize the effect of passage and plaque-purification on these polymorphisms. These data add to growing evidence that even plaque-purified stocks of stable DNA viruses exhibit limited sequence

Strain screen and haplotype association mapping of wheel running in inbred mouse strains.

Science.gov (United States)

Lightfoot, J Timothy; Leamy, Larry; Pomp, Daniel; Turner, Michael J; Fodor, Anthony A; Knab, Amy; Bowen, Robert S; Ferguson, David; Moore-Harrison, Trudy; Hamilton, Alicia

2010-09-01

Previous genetic association studies of physical activity, in both animal and human models, have been limited in number of subjects and genetically homozygous strains used as well as number of genomic markers available for analysis. Expansion of the available mouse physical activity strain screens and the recently published dense single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) map of the mouse genome (approximately 8.3 million SNPs) and associated statistical methods allowed us to construct a more generalizable map of the quantitative trait loci (QTL) associated with physical activity. Specifically, we measured wheel running activity in male and female mice (average age 9 wk) in 41 inbred strains and used activity data from 38 of these strains in a haplotype association mapping analysis to determine QTL associated with activity. As seen previously, there was a large range of activity patterns among the strains, with the highest and lowest strains differing significantly in daily distance run (27.4-fold), duration of activity (23.6-fold), and speed (2.9-fold). On a daily basis, female mice ran further (24%), longer (13%), and faster (11%). Twelve QTL were identified, with three (on Chr. 12, 18, and 19) in both male and female mice, five specific to males, and four specific to females. Eight of the 12 QTL, including the 3 general QTL found for both sexes, fell into intergenic areas. The results of this study further support the findings of a moderate to high heritability of physical activity and add general genomic areas applicable to a large number of mouse strains that can be further mined for candidate genes associated with regulation of physical activity. Additionally, results suggest that potential genetic mechanisms arising from traditional noncoding regions of the genome may be involved in regulation of physical activity.

Addressing Future Epidemics: Historical Human Rights Lessons from the AIDS Pandemic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ambar Mehta

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Introduction: The Ebola epidemic in West Africa sparked many ethical and polarizing public health questions on how to adequately control transmission of the virus. These deliberations had and will continue to influence patients, healthcare workers, public perceptions of disease, and governmental responses. Such extensive and potential ramifications warranted an analysis of prior epidemics to sufficiently inform policy makers and prepare them and other authorities for future epidemics. We analyzed how the general public, medical institutions, federal government, and patients themselves responded during the early stages of the AIDS pandemic in two different countries and cultures, the United States and India. Discussion: Our analysis identified four key findings pertaining to the human rights of patients and healthcare workers and to the crucial roles of the government and medical community. The first demands that authoritative officials acknowledge the presence of high-risk behaviors and properly educate the public without stigmatizing groups of individuals. For this task, the medical community and federal government must form and display to the public a respectful and collaborative partnership towards battling the epidemic. These two synergistic endeavors will then allow appropriate officials to implement effective, yet civil, interventions for limiting transmission. Finally, the same officials must ensure that their interventions maintain the human rights of high-risk populations and of healthcare workers. Conclusions: Applying these findings to future epidemics of infectious diseases can aid policy makers in navigating complicated ethical and public health questions, and help prevent them from repeating past mistakes in handling epidemics.

Haemophilus influenzae type f meningitis in a previously healthy boy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ronit, Andreas; Berg, Ronan M G; Bruunsgaard, Helle

2013-01-01

Non-serotype b strains of Haemophilus influenzae are extremely rare causes of acute bacterial meningitis in immunocompetent individuals. We report a case of acute bacterial meningitis in a 14-year-old boy, who was previously healthy and had been immunised against H influenzae serotype b (Hib...