Zanazzi, José Luis; Gomes, Luiz Flávio Autran Monteiro; Dimitroff, Magdalena
This paper describes an application in group decision making, aimed at developing a procedure to help define priorities in preventive maintenance activities. The method applied is called DRV Processes (Decision with Reduction of Variability) and it combines both statistical techniques and multicriteria decision aid procedures. Among its advantages, we may highlight the possibility of reducing the noise affecting information in group decision making and of reaching a consensual decision. This ...
Full Text Available Identifying and making the correct decision on the best health treatment or screening test option can become a difficult task. Therefore is important that the patients get all types of information appropriate to manage their health. Decision aids can be very useful when there is more than one reasonable option about a treatment or uncertain associated with screening tests. The decision aids tools help people to understand their clinical condition, through the description of the different options available. The purpose of this paper is to present the project “Supporting Informed Decision Making In Prevention of Prostate Cancer” (SIDEMP. This project is focused on the creation of a Web-based decision platform specifically directed to screening prostate cancer, that will support the patient in the process of making an informed decision
José Luis Zanazzi
Full Text Available This paper describes an application in group decision making, aimed at developing a procedure to help define priorities in preventive maintenance activities. The method applied is called DRV Processes (Decision with Reduction of Variability and it combines both statistical techniques and multicriteria decision aid procedures. Among its advantages, we may highlight the possibility of reducing the noise affecting information in group decision making and of reaching a consensual decision. This approach generally improves the level of shared knowledge and helps to avoid conflict within the group. The application was carried out in a major pharmaceutical production plant. The experience showed an eighty per cent reduction in the original amount of process noise. Moreover, the paper describes evidence of improvement in interpersonal relationships.
Keefe, Carole W; Thompson, Margaret E; Noel, Mary Margaret
Improving access to preventive care requires addressing patient, provider, and systems barriers. Patients often lack knowledge or are skeptical about the importance of prevention. Physicians feel that they have too little time, are not trained to deliver preventive services, and are concerned about the effectiveness of prevention. We have implemented an educational module in the required family practice clerkship (1) to enhance medical student learning about common clinical preventive services and (2) to teach students how to inform and involve patients in shared decision making about those services. Students are asked to examine available evidence-based information for preventive screening services. They are encouraged to look at the recommendations of various organizations and use such resources as reports from the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force to determine recommendations they want to be knowledgeable about in talking with their patients. For learning shared decision making, students are trained to use a model adapted from Braddock and colleagues(1) to discuss specific screening services and to engage patients in the process of making informed decisions about what is best for their own health. The shared decision making is presented and modeled by faculty, discussed in small groups, and students practice using Web-based cases and simulations. The students are evaluated using formative and summative performance-based assessments as they interact with simulated patients about (1) screening for high blood cholesterol and other lipid abnormalities, (2) screening for colorectal cancer, (3) screening for prostate cancer, and (4) screening for breast cancer. The final student evaluation is a ten-minute, videotaped discussion with a simulated patient about screening for colorectal cancer that is graded against a checklist that focuses primarily on the elements of shared decision making. Our medical students appear quite willing to accept shared decision making as
Clark, Rachel; Waters, Elizabeth; Armstrong, Rebecca; Conning, Rebecca; Allender, Steven; Swinburn, Boyd
Public health practitioners make decisions based on research evidence in combination with a variety of other influences. Evidence summaries are one of a range of knowledge translation options used to support evidence-informed decision making. The literature relevant to obesity prevention requires synthesis for it to be accessible and relevant to…
Hultberg, Josabeth; Rudebeck, Carl Edvard
The aim of the study was to describe and explore patient agency through resistance in decision-making about cardiovascular preventive drugs in primary care. Six general practitioners from the southeast of Sweden audiorecorded 80 consultations. From these, 28 consultations with proposals from GPs for cardiovascular preventive drug treatments were chosen for theme-oriented discourse analysis. The study shows how patients participate in decision-making about cardiovascular preventive drug treatments through resistance in response to treatment proposals. Passive modes of resistance were withheld responses and minimal unmarked acknowledgements. Active modes were to ask questions, contest the address of an inclusive we, present an identity as a non-drugtaker, disclose non-adherence to drug treatments, and to present counterproposals. The active forms were also found in anticipation to treatment proposals from the GPs. Patients and GPs sometimes displayed mutual renouncement of responsibility for decision-making. The decision-making process appeared to expand both beyond a particular phase in the consultations and beyond the single consultation. The recognition of active and passive resistance from patients as one way of exerting agency may prove valuable when working for patient participation in clinical practice, education and research about patient-doctor communication about cardiovascular preventive medication. We propose particular attentiveness to patient agency through anticipatory resistance, patients' disclosures of non-adherence and presentations of themselves as non-drugtakers. The expansion of the decision-making process beyond single encounters points to the importance of continuity of care. KEY POINTS Guidelines recommend shared decision-making about cardiovascular preventive treatment. We need an understanding of how this is accomplished in actual consultations.This paper describes how patient agency in decision-making is displayed through different forms
Masemola-Yende, J P F; Mataboge, Sanah M
The increase in the number of teenage pregnancies and its negative consequences has encouraged various researchers to explore the possible causes of teenage pregnancy. Findings from previously-conducted research have indicated different preventable factors that predispose female teenagers to pregnancy, such as staff attitudes and the lack of information resulting from poor access to health facilities. To explore and describe access to information and decision making on teenage pregnancy prevention by females using a primary healthcare clinic in Tshwane, South Africa. In this study, the researchers used a descriptive qualitative and exploratory research design to explore and describe the verbal reports regarding prevention of teenage pregnancy by females using a primary healthcare clinic in Tshwane, South Africa. Face-to-face semistructured interviews were conducted with 15 female participants aged between 15 and 26, who had been pregnant once or more during their teens. Two themes emerged, namely, access to information and decision making by female teenagers. Five categories that emerged were: access to information on pregnancy prevention; ignoring of provided information; the use of alternative medicine with hormonal contraception; personal reasons for use and non-use of contraception; and decisions made by teenagers to not fall pregnant. Females in this study fell pregnant in their teens, even though they had access to information. Given the complexity of this problem, female teenagers should use their families as primary sources of information for reproductive health promotion and educational institutions should build on this to aid the prevention of teenage pregnancy.
Scheepers, Daan; Ellemers, Naomi; Sassenberg, Kai
This research examines how group status affects the impact of individual power positions on promotion versus prevention choices in group decision making. We consider that high power not only implies control, but also indicates responsibility for the achievement of group goals. We argue that the nature of these goals depends on the current status of the group. In Experiment 1, individuals who were accorded high power showed more promotion-oriented decisions in the low group status condition while decisions were more prevention oriented under high group status. Experiment 2 replicated these effects, and further demonstrated that they only emerge when those in power are explicitly made accountable for the achievement of group goals. These results are discussed in relation to regulatory focus theory, power theories, and the role of social identities and group goals in group dynamics. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.
J.P.F. Masemola-Yende; Sanah M. Mataboge
Background: The increase in the number of teenage pregnancies and its negative consequences has encouraged various researchers to explore the possible causes of teenage pregnancy. Findings from previously-conducted research have indicated different preventable factors that predispose female teenagers to pregnancy, such as staff attitudes and the lack of information resulting from poor access to health facilities. Objective: To explore and describe access to information and decision making...
Neumeyer-Gromen, A; Bodemer, N; Müller, S M; Gigerenzer, G
With the introduction and recommendation of the new HPV (human papillomavirus) vaccination in 2007, cervical cancer prevention has evoked large public interest. Is the public able to make informed decisions on the basis of media reports and brochures? To answer this question, an analysis of media coverage of HPV vaccination (Gardasil®) and Pap (Papanicolaou) screening was conducted from 2007-2009, which investigated the minimum requirement of completeness (pros and cons), transparency (absolute numbers), and correctness (references concerning outcome, uncertainty, magnitude) of the information. As a bench mark, facts boxes with concise data on epidemiology, etiology, benefits, harms, and costs were compiled in advance. Although all vaccination reports and brochures covered the impact of prevention, only 41% provided concrete numbers on effectiveness (90/220) and 2% on absolute risk reductions for the cancer surrogate dysplasia (5/220), whereby none of the latter numbers was correct. The prevention potential was correctly presented once. Only 48% (105/220) mentioned pros and cons. With regard to screening, 20% (4/20) provided explicit data on test quality and one expressed these in absolute numbers, while 25% (5/20) reported the prevention potential; all given numbers were correct. Finally, 25% (5/20) mentioned the possibility of false positive results. Minimum requirements were fulfilled by 1/220 vaccination and 1/20 screening reports. At present, informed decision making based on media coverage is hardly possible.
Full Text Available Background: The increase in the number of teenage pregnancies and its negative consequences has encouraged various researchers to explore the possible causes of teenage pregnancy. Findings from previously-conducted research have indicated different preventable factors that predispose female teenagers to pregnancy, such as staff attitudes and the lack of information resulting from poor access to health facilities. Objective: To explore and describe access to information and decision making on teenage pregnancy prevention by females using a primary healthcare clinic in Tshwane, South Africa. Method: In this study, the researchers used a descriptive qualitative and exploratory research design to explore and describe the verbal reports regarding prevention of teenage pregnancy by females using a primary healthcare clinic in Tshwane, South Africa. Face-to-face semistructured interviews were conducted with 15 female participants aged between 15 and 26, who had been pregnant once or more during their teens. Results: Two themes emerged, namely, access to information and decision making by female teenagers. Five categories that emerged were: access to information on pregnancy prevention; ignoring of provided information; the use of alternative medicine with hormonal contraception; personal reasons for use and non-use of contraception; and decisions made by teenagers to not fall pregnant. Females in this study fell pregnant in their teens, even though they had access to information. Conclusion: Given the complexity of this problem, female teenagers should use their families as primary sources of information for reproductive health promotion and educational institutions should build on this to aid the prevention of teenage pregnancy.
Hillis, Vicken; Lubell, Mark; Kaplan, Jonathan; Baumgartner, Kendra
Preventative disease management is challenging to farmers because it requires paying immediate costs in the hopes of returning uncertain future benefits. Understanding farmer decision making about prevention has the potential to reduce disease incidence and minimize the need for more costly postinfection practices. For example, the grapevine trunk-disease complex (esca, Botryosphaeria dieback, Eutypa dieback, and Phomopsis dieback) significantly affects vineyard productivity and longevity. Given the chronic nature of the infections and inability to eradicate the fungal pathogens, the preventative practices of delayed pruning, applications of pruning-wound protectants, and double pruning (also known as prepruning) are the most effective means of management. We surveyed wine-grape growers in six regions of California on their use of these three practices. In spite of acknowledging the yield impacts of trunk diseases, a substantial number of respondents either choose not to use preventative practices or incorrectly adopted them in mature vineyards, too late in the disease cycle to be effective. Growers with more negative perceptions of cost efficacy were less likely to adopt preventative practices or were more likely to time adoption incorrectly in mature vineyards. In general, preventative management may require strong intervention in the form of policy or extension to motivate behavioral change.
... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000877.htm Shared decision making To use the sharing features on this page, ... treatment you both support. When to use Shared Decision Making Shared decision making is often used when you ...
Wieland, Patricia; Almeida, Ivan Pedro Salati de
The scientific considerations upon which the nuclear regulations are based provide objective criteria for decisions on nuclear safety matters. However, the decisions that a regulatory agency takes go far beyond granting or not an operating license based on assessment of compliance. It may involve decisions about hiring experts or research, appeals, responses to other government agencies, international agreements, etc.. In all cases, top management of the regulatory agency should hear and decide the best balance between the benefits of regulatory action and undue risks and other associated impacts that may arise, including issues of credibility and reputation. The establishment of a decision framework based on well established principles and criteria ensures performance stability and consistency, preventing individual subjectivity. This article analyzes the challenges to the decision-making by regulatory agencies to ensure coherence and consistency in decisions, even in situations where there is uncertainty, lack of reliable information and even divergence of opinions among experts. The article explores the basic elements for a framework for regulatory decision-making. (author)
Leonardo Yuji Tamura
Full Text Available Quantum Electronics was a Brazilian startup in the 1990's that was acquired by an American equity fund in 2012. They are currently the largest manufacturer of vehicle tracking and infotainment systems. The company was founded by three college friends, who are currently executives at the company: Camilo Santos, Pedro Barbosa and Luana Correa. Edward Hutter was sent by the equity fund to take over the company’s finances, but is having trouble making organizational decisions with his colleagues. As a consultant, I was called to help them improve their decision making process and project prioritization. I adapted and deployed our firm's methodology, but, in the end, its adequacy is shown to be very much in question. The author of this case study intends to explore how actual organizational decisions rely on different decision models and their assumptions, .as well as demonstrate that a decision model is neither absolutely good nor bad as its quality is context dependent.
T. Bärnighausen (Till); Becker, S. (Stephen); A. Bendavid (Avrom); A. Bershteyn (Anna); J. Blandford (John); M-C. Boily (Marie-Claude); Burns, D. (David); V. Cambiano (Valentina); Cohen, M.S. (Myron S.); Cremin, Í. (Íde); Delva, W. (Wim); Dye, C. (Christopher); J.W. Eaton (Jeffrey); M. Egger (Matthias); C. Fraser (Christophe); Galai, N. (Noya); D. Garnett; Ghys, P.D. (Peter D.); T.B. Hallett (Timothy); Heaton, L. (Laura); C.B. Holmes (Charles ); J.A.C. Hontelez (Jan); Jewell, B. (Britta); Keiser, O. (Olivia); D.J. Klein (David); Lima, V. (Viviane); Long, E. (Elisa); Lyerla, R. (Rob); Marais, C. (Christiaan); Meng, F. (Fei); G. Meyer-Rath (Gesine); Miller, W.C. (William C.); N. Muraguri (Nicholas); B.E. Nichols (Brooke); Nigmatulina, K.R. (Karima R.); Over, M. (Mead); Padian, N. (Nancy); A. Phillips (Andrew); C. Pretorius (Carel); C. Rousseau (Christine); J.A. Salomon (Joshua A); N. Sangrujee (Nalinee); D. Serwadda; F. Tanser (Frank); Vesga, J.F. (Juan F.); K. Vickerman; Walker, D. (Damian); Wang, R. (Rui); Welte, A. (Alex); R.G. White (Richard); B. Williams (Brian); D.C. Wilson (David); Wilson, D. (David); B. Zaba (Basia)
textabstractAntiretroviral therapy (ART) for those infected with HIV can prevent onward transmission of infection, but biological efficacy alone is not enough to guide policy decisions about the role of ART in reducing HIV incidence. Epidemiology, economics, demography, statistics, biology, and
Enrique Benjamín Franklin Fincowsky
Full Text Available People and organizations make better or get wrong as consequence of making decisions. Sometimes making decisions is just a trial and error process. Some others, decisions are good and the results profitable with a few of mistakes, most of the time because it’s considered the experience and the control of a specific field or the good intention of who makes them. Actually, all kinds of decisions bring learning. What is important is the intention, the attitude and the values considered in this process. People from different scenes face many facts and circumstances—almost always out of control—that affect the making decisions process. There is not a unique way to make decisions for all companies in many settings. The person who makes a decision should identify the problem, to solve it later using alternatives and solutions. Even though, follow all the steps it’s not easy as it seems. Looking back the conditions related to the decisions, we can mention the followings: uncertainty, risk and certainty. When people identify circumstances and facts, as well as its effects in a possible situation, they will make decisions with certainty. As long as the information decreases and it becomes ambiguous the risk becomes an important factor in the making decisions process because they are connected to probable objectives (clear or subjective (opinion judgment or intuition. To finish, uncertainty, involves people that make a decision with no or little information about circumstances or criteria with basis
Fischhoff, Baruch, Ed.; Crowell, Nancy A., Ed.; Kipke, Michele, Ed.
Risk taking is a natural part of teenagers' lives. They need to take some risks in order to grow. However, they can also get into trouble with their risk taking when it involves behaviors such as sex, drinking, smoking, violence, and drug use. Interest in the role that decision making plays in adolescents' involvement in high-risk behaviors led…
Vera Barton-Caro Ph.D.,
The purpose of this classic grounded theory study was to explain the complex decision making process of heart failure (HF) patients considering primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) therapy. Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the leading cause of death for people with HF as well as the primary cause of death in the United States (US). ICDs represent the standard of care as the only effective therapy for primary prevention of SCD. However, a significant proportion of quali...
Ford, Catherine; Chibwesha, Carla J; Winston, Jennifer; Jacobs, Choolwe; Lubeya, Mwansa Ketty; Musonda, Patrick; Stringer, Jeffrey S A; Chi, Benjamin H
Women's empowerment is associated with engagement in some areas of healthcare, but its role in prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) services has not been previously considered. In this secondary analysis, we investigated the association of women's decision-making and uptake of health services for PMTCT. Using data from population-based household surveys, we included women who reported delivery in the 2-year period prior to the survey and were HIV-infected. We measured a woman's self-reported role in decision-making in her own healthcare, making of large purchases, schooling of children, and healthcare for children. For each domain, respondents were categorized as having an "active" or "no active" role. We investigated associations between decision-making and specific steps along the PMTCT cascade: uptake of maternal antiretroviral drugs, uptake of infant HIV prophylaxis, and infant HIV testing. We calculated unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios via logistic regression. From March to December 2011, 344 HIV-infected mothers were surveyed and 276 completed the relevant survey questions. Of these, 190 (69%) took antiretroviral drugs during pregnancy; 175 (64%) of their HIV-exposed infants received antiretroviral prophylaxis; and 160 (58%) had their infant tested for HIV. There was no association between decision-making and maternal or infant antiretroviral drug use. We observed a significant association between decision-making and infant HIV testing in univariate analyses (OR 1.56-1.85; p decision-making indicators were no longer statistically significant predictors of infant HIV testing in multivariate analyses. In conclusion, women who reported an active role in decision-making trended toward a higher likelihood of uptake of infant testing in the PMTCT cascade. Larger studies are needed to evaluate the impact of empowerment initiatives on the PMTCT service utilization overall and infant testing in particular.
Dall, Sasha R. X.; Gosling, Samuel; Gordon D.A., Brown,; Dingemanse, Niels; Ido, Erev,; Martin, Kocher,; Laura, Schulz,; Todd, Peter M; Weissing, Franz; Wolf, Max; Hammerstein, Peter; Stevens, Jeffrey R.
Variation in how organisms allocate their behavior over their lifetimes is key to determining Darwinian fitness., and thus the evolution of human and nonhuman decision making. This chapter explores how decision making varies across biologically and societally significant scales and what role such
Davenport, Thomas H
Traditionally, decision making in organizations has rarely been the focus of systematic analysis. That may account for the astounding number of recent poor calls, such as decisions to invest in and securitize subprime mortgage loans or to hedge risk with credit default swaps. Business books are rich with insights about the decision process, but organizations have been slow to adopt their recommendations. It's time to focus on decision making, Davenport says, and he proposes four steps: (1) List and prioritize the decisions that must be made; (2) assess the factors that go into each, such as who plays what role, how often the decision must be made, and what information is available to support it; (3) design the roles, processes, systems, and behaviors your organization needs; and (4) institutionalize decision tools and assistance. The Educational Testing Service and The Stanley Works, among others, have succeeded in improving their decisions. ETS established a centralized deliberative body to make evidence-based decisions about new-product offerings, and Stanley has a Pricing Center of Excellence with internal consultants dedicated to its various business units. Leaders should bring multiple perspectives to their decision making, beware of analytical models that managers don't understand, be clear about their assumptions, practice "model management," and--because only people can revise decision criteria over time--cultivate human backups.
Pedersen, Carsten Lund; Andersen, Torben Juul
developments and feeding that information into strategic decisions will enable higher quality outcomes and better adaptive responses for persistent performance. Thus we review relevant parts of the strategic decision making literature to conceptualize the responsive decision making model and propose a study......Strategic decision making remains a focal point in the strategy field, but despite decades of rich conceptual and empirical research we still seem distant from a level of understanding that can guide corporate practices effectively under turbulent and unpredictable environmental conditions. Hence......, the aim of this study is to gain deeper insights into the complex and multifaceted decision processes that take place in large complex organizations operating in dynamic high-velocity markets. It is proposed that the ability to obtain faster, more accurate and updated insights about ongoing environmental...
Jain, Lakhmi C
The present "Volume 1: Techniques and Applications" of the "Handbook on Decision Making" presents a useful collection of AI techniques, as well as other complementary methodologies, that are useful for the design and development of intelligent decision support systems. Application examples of how these intelligent decision support systems can be utilized to help tackle a variety of real-world problems in different domains, such as business, management, manufacturing, transportation and food industries, and biomedicine, are presented. The handbook includes twenty condensed c
Meer, van Floor; Charbonnier, Lisette; Smeets, Paul A.M.
Food decisions determine energy intake. Since overconsumption is the main driver of obesity, the effects of weight status on food decision-making are of increasing interest. An additional factor of interest is age, given the rise in childhood obesity, weight gain with aging, and the increased
Jonassen, David H.
Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…
Carroll, Sandra L; Strachan, Patricia H; de Laat, Sonya; Schwartz, Lisa; Arthur, Heather M
Patients are offered implantable defibrillators (ICDs) for the prevention of sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, patients' decision-making process (DMP) of whether or not to accept an ICD has not been explored. We asked patients about their decision making when offered an ICD. A grounded theory methodology was employed. Patients were recruited from three ICD centres. Those who received an ICD underwent interviews the first month after implant. Declining patients had interviews at their convenience. In-depth analysis of transcripts was completed. Identified themes were placed along process pathways in a DMP model and tested. Forty-four patients consented to participate (25% women). Thirty-four accepted an ICD and 10 (23%) declined. Ages ranged from 26 to 87 (mean = 65; SD = 12.5). Participants were retired (65%), had ischaemic heart disease (64%) and some post-secondary education (52%). The DMP was triggered when patient's risk for SCD was communicated. The physician's recommendation and a new awareness SCD risk were motivators to accept the ICD. Patient's decision-making approaches fell along a continuum, from active and engaged to passive and indifferent. Patient's approaches were influenced most by the following: (i) trust; (ii) social influences and (iii) health state. Health-care providers need to recognize the DMP pathways in which ICD candidacy and SCD risk are understood. The factors that influence a patient's decision warrant discussion pre-implant. It is imperative that patients comprehend the meaning of ICD candidacy to make an informed decision. Participants did not recall alternatives to receiving ICD therapy. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Karny, Miroslav; Wolpert, David
Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process. The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider: · how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions; · how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available; ...
Maite Sara Mashego
Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...
Jacobs, Patricia A.
This report supplies references and comments on literature that identifies human factors influencing decision making, particularly military decision making. The literature has been classified as follows (the classes are not mutually exclusive): features of human information processing; decision making models which are not mathematical models but rather are descriptive; non- personality factors influencing decision making; national characteristics influencing decision makin...
Lauesen, Linne Marie
by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses......Purpose: For the last three decades, Stakeholder management has been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models that can explain the complexities...... of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...
HENDRIKS, M. M. W. B.; de Boer, J. H.; Smilde, A. K.; Doornbos, D. A.
Interest is growing in multicriteria decision making (MCDM) techniques and a large number of these techniques are now available. The purpose of this tutorial is to give a theoretical description of some of the MCDM techniques. Besides this we will give an overview of the differences and similarities
AlHaqwi, Ali I.; AlDrees, Turki M.; AlRumayyan, Ahmad; AlFarhan, Ali I.; Alotaibi, Sultan S.; AlKhashan, Hesham I.; Badri, Motasim
Objectives: To determine preferences of patients regarding their involvement in the clinical decision making process and the related factors in Saudi Arabia. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in a major family practice center in King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between March and May 2012. Multivariate multinomial regression models were fitted to identify factors associated with patients preferences. Results: The study included 236 participants. The most preferred decision-making style was shared decision-making (57%), followed by paternalistic (28%), and informed consumerism (14%). The preference for shared clinical decision making was significantly higher among male patients and those with higher level of education, whereas paternalism was significantly higher among older patients and those with chronic health conditions, and consumerism was significantly higher in younger age groups. In multivariate multinomial regression analysis, compared with the shared group, the consumerism group were more likely to be female [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) =2.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31-6.27, p=0.008] and non-dyslipidemic (AOR=2.90, 95% CI: 1.03-8.09, p=0.04), and the paternalism group were more likely to be older (AOR=1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.05, p=0.04), and female (AOR=2.47, 95% CI: 1.32-4.06, p=0.008). Conclusion: Preferences of patients for involvement in the clinical decision-making varied considerably. In our setting, underlying factors that influence these preferences identified in this study should be considered and tailored individually to achieve optimal treatment outcomes. PMID:26620990
Vera Barton-Caro Ph.D.,
Full Text Available The purpose of this classic grounded theory study was to explain the complex decision making process of heart failure (HF patients considering primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD therapy. Sudden cardiac death (SCD is the leading cause of death for people with HF as well as the primary cause of death in the United States (US. ICDs represent the standard of care as the only effective therapy for primary prevention of SCD. However, a significant proportion of qualifying HF patients declines this invasive, yet life-saving device. The grounded theory is of Embodied revelation. The threat of SCD for ICD candidates consists of four stages: living in conscious denial, heightening of awareness, sanctioning ICD therapy, and living in new assurance. The first stage ends abruptly with the critical juncture of grasping the threat of SCD. This grounded theory has implications for research, nursing and medical practice, as well as bioethical considerations.
Carroll, Sandra L.; Strachan, Patricia H.; de Laat, Sonya; Schwartz, Lisa; Arthur, Heather M.
Abstract Background Patients are offered implantable defibrillators (ICDs) for the prevention of sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, patients’ decision‐making process (DMP) of whether or not to accept an ICD has not been explored. We asked patients about their decision making when offered an ICD. Design/Setting A grounded theory methodology was employed. Patients were recruited from three ICD centres. Those who received an ICD underwent interviews the first month after implant. Declining patients had interviews at their convenience. In‐depth analysis of transcripts was completed. Identified themes were placed along process pathways in a DMP model and tested. Findings Forty‐four patients consented to participate (25% women). Thirty‐four accepted an ICD and 10 (23%) declined. Ages ranged from 26 to 87 (mean = 65; SD = 12.5). Participants were retired (65%), had ischaemic heart disease (64%) and some post‐secondary education (52%). The DMP was triggered when patient’s risk for SCD was communicated. The physician’s recommendation and a new awareness SCD risk were motivators to accept the ICD. Patient’s decision‐making approaches fell along a continuum, from active and engaged to passive and indifferent. Patient’s approaches were influenced most by the following: (i) trust; (ii) social influences and (iii) health state. Conclusions Health‐care providers need to recognize the DMP pathways in which ICD candidacy and SCD risk are understood. The factors that influence a patient’s decision warrant discussion pre‐implant. It is imperative that patients comprehend the meaning of ICD candidacy to make an informed decision. Participants did not recall alternatives to receiving ICD therapy. PMID:21645190
Paterlini, G; Tagliabue, P
The field of neonatology presents a fascinating context in which hugely important decisions have to be made on the basis of physicians' assessments of the long term consequences of various possible choices. In many cases such assessments cannot be derived from a consensual professional opinion; the situation is characterized by a high level of uncertainty. A sample of neonatologists in different countries received a questionnaire including vignette cases for which no clear consensus exists regarding the (probabilistic) prognosis. They were asked to (I) assess the probability of various outcomes (death, severe impairment) and (II) choose a treatment to be offered to the parents. Information on the physicians' professional and socio-demographic characteristics and their ethical "values" was also collected. The goal of this international survey is to understand the prognosis and to analyze decision making by professionals in the context of life and death in medicine. The availability of an identical technology in different social and institutional contexts should help identifying the convergences and differences under consideration. Seventy percent of those invited responded to the questionnaire (International 60-80%). Italian neonatologists seem to be quite pessimistic about the prognosis of infants at high risk of death or long term disabilities, they show a pro-life attitude, but in a certain proportion are willing to change their minds if requested by parents. Furthermore personal opinions predominate in the decision-making process and the contribution of team meeting and/or ethic consultation seem not significantly modify the decisions.
Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to determine the extent to which employees would like to participate in decision making concerning various organisational issues, especially those concerning: the work itself, working conditions, human resources issues, and corporate policy and planning. The sample consisted of 146 participants, including managers, middle managers, and junior officials from a South African development corporation. A questionnaire to measure employees' desire to participate in decision making was specially constructed for this investigation. It has found that employees with higher academic qualifications were more desirous to participate in decision-making at all levels than employees with lower academic qualifications. This was also true for employees in higher job grades than in lower job grades. Men were more desirous to participate in decision making than women. The implications of the findings are discussed. Opsomming Die doel van die huidige studie was om vas te stel in watter mate werknemers sal wil deelneem aan die besluit- nameproses van organisasies, veral rakende die volgende sake: die werk self, werksomstandighede, menslike hulpbronaangeleenthede en korporatiewe beleid en beplanning. Die steekproef het uit 146 deelnemers, insluitende bestuurders, middelvlakbestuurders en junior amptenare van'n Suid Afrikaanse ontwikkelingskorporasie, bestaan. nVraelys wat die begeerte van werknemers meet om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem, is spesiaal vir die doel van hierdie ondersoek, ontwerp. Dit is bevind dat werknemers met hoer akademiese kwalifikasies meer begerig is om aan die besluitnameproses op alle vlakke deel te neem as werknemers met laer akademiese kwalifikasies. Dit was ook waar vir werknemers in hoervlakposte vergeleke met werknemers in laervlakposte. Mans was ook meer begerig om aan die besluitnameproses deel te neem as vroue. Die implikasies van die studie word bespreek.
B. Wierenga (Berend)
textabstractWhile a whole range of factors influences the outcomes of a marketing policy, it is managerial decision-making that can really make a difference. A clearer understanding of how marketers make decisions should therefore improve their quality.
Lauesen, Linne Marie
Purpose: For the last three decades, Stakeholder management has been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models that can explain the complexities of the inter......Purpose: For the last three decades, Stakeholder management has been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models that can explain the complexities...... of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...... applicable): The Model is based on case studies, but the limited scope of the length of the paper did not leave room to show the empirical evidence, but only the theoretical study. Originality / value of a paper: The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decision-making processes...
Drew, Elaine M; Schoenberg, Nancy E
Researchers have long held that fatalism (the belief in a lack of personal power or control over destiny or fate) constitutes a major barrier to participation in positive health behaviors and, subsequently, adversely affects health outcomes. In this article, we present two in-depth, ethnographic studies of rural women's health decisions surrounding cancer treatments to illustrate the complexity and contestability of the long-established fatalism construct. Narrative analyses suggest that for these women, numerous and complex factors--including inadequate access to health services, a legacy of self-reliance, insufficient privacy, combined with a culturally acceptable idiom of fatalism--foster the use of, but not necessarily a rigid conviction in, the notion of fatalism.
The challenge of making training decisions with a high degree of confidence as to the results of those decisions face every DOD, Federal, State, and City agency. Training has historically been a very labor and paper intensive system with limited automation support. This paper outlines how one DOD component, the Air Force, is approaching that challenge. The Training Decision System (TDS) will provide the Air Force with an automated decision aid to help plan and estimate the consequences of various mixes of resident training, On-The-Job Training (OJT), and field training within a specialty such as security. The system described provides training from enlistment to separation and responds to hundreds of related security task needs. This system identifies what the tasks are, who should provide the training, what training setting should be used, what proficiency should be achieved, and through computer modeling provides an assessment of training effectiveness options and estimate the impact of implementing those options. With current budgetary constraints and with the possibility of further reductions in the future, the most cost effective training mix must be found to sustain required capabilities
Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H
Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit
Aldashev, Gani; Kirchsteiger, Georg; Sebald, Alexander Christopher
It is a persistent finding in psychology and experimental economics that people's behavior is not only shaped by outcomes but also by decision-making procedures. In this paper we develop a general framework capable of modelling these procedural concerns. Within the context of psychological games we...... define procedures as mechanisms that influence the probabilities of reaching different endnodes. We show that for such procedural games a sequential psychological equilibrium always exists. Applying this approach within a principal-agent context we show that the way less attractive jobs are allocated...
Maite Sara Mashego
Full Text Available Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This article explored the models, roles, tools and methods of consensus decision making. The results were that consensus decision making brings people together and cements the relationship among employees. The lone ranger’s decision is only consented to by staff but inwardly disagreeable resulting in short term benefits but long term collapse of organizations.
Gigerenzer, Gerd; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang
As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious, that ignore part of the information. Because using heuristics saves effort, the classical view has been that heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do "rational" decisions as defined by logic or statistical models. However, for many decisions, the assumptions of rational models are not met, and it is an empirical rather than an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an uncertain world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do people use in which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When should people rely on a given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to make better judgments?"), formal models are indispensable. We review research that tests formal models of heuristic inference, including in business organizations, health care, and legal institutions. This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. The big future challenge is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploit.
Lewis, Timothy J.; Mitchell, Barbara S.
Students with emotional and behavioral disorders are at great risk for long-term negative outcomes. Researchers and practitioners alike acknowledge the need for evidence-based, preventive, and early intervention strategies. Accordingly, in this chapter an expanded view of prevention is presented as a series of data driven decisions to guide…
Artificial intelligence (AI) systems depend heavily upon the ability to make decisions. Decisions require knowledge, yet there is no knowledge-based theory of decision making. To the extent that AI uses a theory of decision-making it adopts components of the traditional statistical view in which choices are made by maximizing some function of the probabilities of decision options. A knowledge-based scheme for reasoning about uncertainty is proposed, which extends the traditional framework but is compatible with it
Price decision making in a marketing program framework creatings is a complicated and delicated part of marketing management, especially to keep in sight culminating of mass external factors. In a market economies price policy as a marketing mix instrument rarely is regulated by the law, which opening the ethical aspect questions of price decision making process. The ethics in the price decision making means consideration of the inner law of the individual (marketing managers and/or consumers...
Sharma, Tarang; Choudhury, Moni; Kaur, Bindweep
from the literature and a combined best practice checklist has been proposed. CONCLUSIONS: As decisions often need to be made in areas where there is a lack of published scientific evidence, CE is employed. Therefore to ensure its appropriateness the development of a validated CE data quality check......-list to assist decision makers is essential and further research in this area is a priority....
In many application areas, it is necessary to make effective decisions under constraints. Several area-specific techniques are known for such decision problems; however, because these techniques are area-specific, it is not easy to apply each technique to other applications areas. Cross-fertilization between different application areas is one of the main objectives of the annual International Workshops on Constraint Programming and Decision Making. Those workshops, held in the US (El Paso, Texas), in Europe (Lyon, France), and in Asia (Novosibirsk, Russia), from 2008 to 2012, have attracted researchers and practitioners from all over the world. This volume presents extended versions of selected papers from those workshops. These papers deal with all stages of decision making under constraints: (1) formulating the problem of multi-criteria decision making in precise terms, (2) determining when the corresponding decision problem is algorithmically solvable; (3) finding the corresponding algorithms, and making...
Dobrajska, Magdalena; Billinger, Stephan; Becker, Markus
, and (b) how the firm arrived at a particular transactional choice in each decision. We find that decision makers extensively adapt decision structures in order to effectively make governance mode choices. They adapt hierarchy span, i.e. the number of hierarchical levels involved, and expertise span, i...
Arthur, Rudy; Sibani, Paolo
We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et. al. that we call...... the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures....
Business educators should give students specific training in a methodology which will enable them to make logical, systematic, and rational decisions. Kepner-Tregoe Analysis (KTA), a decision making model, is described and illustrated with an example of a student buying his first car. (SC)
Reader, Simon M; Leris, Ioannis
Outcome transparency and the weight given to social information both play important roles in decision making, but we argue that an overarching influence is the degree to which individuals can and do gather information. Evolution, experience, and development may shape individual specializations in social decision making that carry over across contexts, and these individual differences may influence collective behavior and cultural evolution.
Lobanova, E. N.; Zmitrovich, A. I.; Voshevoz, A. A.; Krivko-Krasko, A. V.
In this article we consider concepts and components of the Financial Decision Making System that is being developed in the Institute of Business and Management Technology, BSU. Such system can be successfully used either for training experts in financial analytics and financial management or for financial managers and financial directors in an enterprise for the effective financial decision making.
Full Text Available Decision-making is defined as a selection of a certain actionamong several alternatives. It is the essence of planning, asin the managerial sense there is no plan until a decision of engagementof resources, reputation and direction of activities ismade. Decision-making is, in fact, only a step in planning, evenwhen it is performed quickly and without special consideration.It is what we all experience every day. It is one of the most fascinatingbiological activities and the subject of frightening implicationsfor the whole human race. Since various techniques improvethe system and the quality of managerial decision-making,they are classified into three assumptions: risk analysis, decision-making trees, and the theory of revealed preference. Allof these are based on the interaction of a certain number of importantvariables out of which many contain the elements ofuncertainty, but maybe also high level of probability.
Rough Set TheoryBasic concepts and properties of rough sets Rough Membership Rough Intervals Rough FunctionApplications of Rough SetsMultiple Objective Rough Decision Making Reverse Logistics Problem with Rough Interval Parameters MODM based Rough Approximation for Feasible RegionEVRMCCRMDCRM Reverse Logistics Network Design Problem of Suji Renewable Resource MarketBilevel Multiple Objective Rough Decision Making Hierarchical Supply Chain Planning Problem with Rough Interval Parameters Bilevel Decision Making ModelBL-EVRM BL-CCRMBL-DCRMApplication to Supply Chain Planning of Mianyang Co., LtdStochastic Multiple Objective Rough Decision Multi-Objective Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling UnderRough Random EnvironmentRandom Variable Stochastic EVRM Stochastic CCRM Stochastic DCRM Multi-Objective rc-PSP/mM/Ro-Ra for Longtan Hydropower StationFuzzy Multiple Objective Rough Decision Making Allocation Problem under Fuzzy Environment Fuzzy Variable Fu-EVRM Fu-CCRM Fu-DCRM Earth-Rock Work Allocation Problem.
Bostenaru Dan, M.
has to be applied, function of the recurrence period of earthquakes, is similar to the depth of the atria. Depending on how strong the expected earthquake is, a more extensive retrofit is required in order to decrease repair costs. A further study would allow converting the device computations in floor surface costs, to be able not only to implement in an ICT environment by means of ontology and BIM, but also to convert to urban scale. For the latter studies of probabilistic application of structural mechanics models instead of observation based statistics can be considered. But first the socio-economic models of construction management games will be considered, both computer games and board hard-copy games, starting with SimCity which initially included the San Francisco 1906 earthquake, in order to see how the resources needed can be modeled. All criteria build the taxonomy of decision. Among them different ways to make the cost-benefit analysis exist, from weighted tree to pair-wise comparison. The taxonomy was modeled as a decision tree, which builds the basis for an ontology.
.... The separation of psychology into sub-disciplines or paradigms that don't talk to one another. 3. The failure to distinguish between technical and common language usage when dealing with concepts such as decision making and command...
Full Text Available Price decision making in a marketing program framework creatings is a complicated and delicated part of marketing management, especially to keep in sight culminating of mass external factors. In a market economies price policy as a marketing mix instrument rarely is regulated by the law, which opening the ethical aspect questions of price decision making process. The ethics in the price decision making means consideration of the inner law of the individual (marketing managers and/or consumers, whose irreverence does not entail any juridical sanctions, rather its application is sanctioned by the self - awareness. The acception and stability of the ethical aspect price decision making are determined by the characteristic of selected marketing environment.
Perez Bernabeu Elena
Full Text Available Decision making is one of the important tasks of every manager. The process of taking decisions has to be based on knowledge. For optimizing this process some software solutions has been created. In this article we tried to summarize some of the features which exists in some software applications.
Carpenter, Stephanie M; Yoon, Carolyn
Research on consumer decision making and aging is especially important for fostering a better understanding of ways to maintain consumer satisfaction and high decision quality across the life span. We provide a review of extant research on the effects of normal aging on cognition and decision processes and how these age-related processes are influenced by task environment, meaningfulness of the task, and consumer expertise. We consider how research centered on these topics generates insights about changes in consumption decisions that occur with aging and identify a number of gaps and directions for future research. © 2012 New York Academy of Sciences.
Sgaier, Sema K; Sharma, Sunny; Eletskaya, Maria; Prasad, Ram; Mugurungi, Owen; Tambatamba, Bushimbwa; Ncube, Getrude; Xaba, Sinokuthemba; Nanga, Alice; Gumede-Moyo, Sehlulekile; Kretschmer, Steve
As countries approach their scale-up targets for the voluntary medical male circumcision program for HIV prevention, they are strategizing and planning for the sustainability phase to follow. Global guidance recommends circumcising adolescent (below 14 years) and/or early infant boys (aged 0-60 days), and countries need to consider several factors before prioritizing a cohort for their sustainability phase. We provide community and healthcare provider-side insights on attitudes and decision-making process as a key input for this strategic decision in Zambia and Zimbabwe. We studied expectant parents, parents of infant boys (aged 0-60 days), family members and neo-natal and ante-natal healthcare providers in Zambia and Zimbabwe. Our integrated methodology consisted of in-depth qualitative and quantitative one-on-one interviews, and a simulated-decision-making game, to uncover attitudes towards, and the decision-making process for, early adolescent or early infant medical circumcision (EAMC or EIMC). In both countries, parents viewed early infancy and early adolescence as equally ideal ages for circumcision (38% EIMC vs. 37% EAMC in Zambia; 24% vs. 27% in Zimbabwe). If offered for free, about half of Zambian parents and almost 2 in 5 Zimbabwean parents indicated they would likely circumcise their infant boy; however, half of parents in each country perceived that the community would not accept EIMC. Nurses believed their facilities currently could not absorb EIMC services and that they would have limited ability to influence fathers, who were seen as having the primary decision-making authority. Our analysis suggests that EAMC is more accepted by the community than EIMC and is the path of least resistance for the sustainability phase of VMMC. However, parents or community members do not reject EIMC. Should countries choose to prioritize this cohort for their sustainability phase, a number of barriers around information, decision-making by parents, and supply side
Sema K Sgaier
Full Text Available As countries approach their scale-up targets for the voluntary medical male circumcision program for HIV prevention, they are strategizing and planning for the sustainability phase to follow. Global guidance recommends circumcising adolescent (below 14 years and/or early infant boys (aged 0-60 days, and countries need to consider several factors before prioritizing a cohort for their sustainability phase. We provide community and healthcare provider-side insights on attitudes and decision-making process as a key input for this strategic decision in Zambia and Zimbabwe. We studied expectant parents, parents of infant boys (aged 0-60 days, family members and neo-natal and ante-natal healthcare providers in Zambia and Zimbabwe. Our integrated methodology consisted of in-depth qualitative and quantitative one-on-one interviews, and a simulated-decision-making game, to uncover attitudes towards, and the decision-making process for, early adolescent or early infant medical circumcision (EAMC or EIMC. In both countries, parents viewed early infancy and early adolescence as equally ideal ages for circumcision (38% EIMC vs. 37% EAMC in Zambia; 24% vs. 27% in Zimbabwe. If offered for free, about half of Zambian parents and almost 2 in 5 Zimbabwean parents indicated they would likely circumcise their infant boy; however, half of parents in each country perceived that the community would not accept EIMC. Nurses believed their facilities currently could not absorb EIMC services and that they would have limited ability to influence fathers, who were seen as having the primary decision-making authority. Our analysis suggests that EAMC is more accepted by the community than EIMC and is the path of least resistance for the sustainability phase of VMMC. However, parents or community members do not reject EIMC. Should countries choose to prioritize this cohort for their sustainability phase, a number of barriers around information, decision-making by parents, and
Richter Sundberg, Linda; Garvare, Rickard; Nyström, Monica Elisabeth
The judgment and decision making process during guideline development is central for producing high-quality clinical practice guidelines, but the topic is relatively underexplored in the guideline research literature. We have studied the development process of national guidelines with a disease-prevention scope produced by the National board of Health and Welfare (NBHW) in Sweden. The NBHW formal guideline development model states that guideline recommendations should be based on five decision-criteria: research evidence; curative/preventive effect size, severity of the condition; cost-effectiveness; and ethical considerations. A group of health profession representatives (i.e. a prioritization group) was assigned the task of ranking condition-intervention pairs for guideline recommendations, taking into consideration the multiple decision criteria. The aim of this study was to investigate the decision making process during the two-year development of national guidelines for methods of preventing disease. A qualitative inductive longitudinal case study approach was used to investigate the decision making process. Questionnaires, non-participant observations of nine two-day group meetings, and documents provided data for the analysis. Conventional and summative qualitative content analysis was used to analyse data. The guideline development model was modified ad-hoc as the group encountered three main types of dilemmas: high quality evidence vs. low adoptability of recommendation; insufficient evidence vs. high urgency to act; and incoherence in assessment and prioritization within and between four different lifestyle areas. The formal guideline development model guided the decision-criteria used, but three new or revised criteria were added by the group: 'clinical knowledge and experience', 'potential guideline consequences' and 'needs of vulnerable groups'. The frequency of the use of various criteria in discussions varied over time. Gender, professional status
Marewski, Julian N.; Gigerenzer, Gerd
Can less information be more helpful when it comes to making medical decisions? Contrary to the common intuition that more information is always better, the use of heuristics can help both physicians and patients to make sound decisions. Heuristics are simple decision strategies that ignore part of the available information, basing decisions on only a few relevant predictors. We discuss: (i) how doctors and patients use heuristics; and (ii) when heuristics outperform information-greedy methods, such as regressions in medical diagnosis. Furthermore, we outline those features of heuristics that make them useful in health care settings. These features include their surprising accuracy, transparency, and wide accessibility, as well as the low costs and little time required to employ them. We close by explaining one of the statistical reasons why heuristics are accurate, and by pointing to psychiatry as one area for future research on heuristics in health care. PMID:22577307
Holmberg, J.; Pulkkinen, U.
The Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) has studied with the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK) the applicability of decision analytic approach to the treatment of nuclear safety related problems at the regulatory body. The role of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in decision making has also been discussed. In the study, inspectors from STUK exercised with a decision analytic approach by reoperationalizing two occurred and solved problems. The research scientist from VTT acted as systems analysts guiding the analysis process. The first case was related to a common cause failure phenomenon in solenoid valves controlling pneumatic valves important to safety of the plant. The problem of the regulatory body was to judge whether to allow continued operation or to require more detailed inspections and in which time chedule the inspections should be done. The latter problem was to evaluate design changes of external electrical grid connections after a fire incident had revealed weakness in the separation of electrical system. In both cases, the decision analysis was carried out several sessions in which decision makers, technical experts as well as experts of decision analysis participated. A multi-attribute value function was applied as a decision model so that attributes had to be defined to quantify the levels of achievements of the objectives. The attributes included both indicators related to the level of operational safety of the plant such as core damage frequency given by PSA, and indicators related to the safety culture, i.e., how well the chosen option fits on the regulatory policy. (24 refs., 6 figs., 9 tabs.)
Runge, Michael C.; Grand, James B.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Krausman, Paul R.; Cain, James W. III
Wildlife management is a decision-focused discipline. It needs to integrate traditional wildlife science and social science to identify actions that are most likely to achieve the array of desires society has surrounding wildlife populations. Decision science, a vast field with roots in economics, operations research, and psychology, offers a rich set of tools to help wildlife managers frame, decompose, analyze, and synthesize their decisions. The nature of wildlife management as a decision science has been recognized since the inception of the field, but formal methods of decision analysis have been underused. There is tremendous potential for wildlife management to grow further through the use of formal decision analysis. First, the wildlife science and human dimensions of wildlife disciplines can be readily integrated. Second, decisions can become more efficient. Third, decisions makers can communicate more clearly with stakeholders and the public. Fourth, good, intuitive wildlife managers, by explicitly examining how they make decisions, can translate their art into a science that is readily used by the next generation.
Flight crews must make decisions and take action when systems fail or emergencies arise during flight. These situations may involve high stress. Full-missiion flight simulation studies have shown that crews differ in how effectively they cope in these circumstances, judged by operational errors and crew coordination. The present study analyzed the problem solving and decision making strategies used by crews led by captains fitting three different personality profiles. Our goal was to identify more and less effective strategies that could serve as the basis for crew selection or training. Methods: Twelve 3-member B-727 crews flew a 5-leg mission simulated flight over 1 1/2 days. Two legs included 4 abnormal events that required decisions during high workload periods. Transcripts of videotapes were analyzed to describe decision making strategies. Crew performance (errors and coordination) was judged on-line and from videotapes by check airmen. Results: Based on a median split of crew performance errors, analyses to date indicate a difference in general strategy between crews who make more or less errors. Higher performance crews showed greater situational awareness - they responded quickly to cues and interpreted them appropriately. They requested more decision relevant information and took into account more constraints. Lower performing crews showed poorer situational awareness, planning, constraint sensitivity, and coordination. The major difference between higher and lower performing crews was that poorer crews made quick decisions and then collected information to confirm their decision. Conclusion: Differences in overall crew performance were associated with differences in situational awareness, information management, and decision strategy. Captain personality profiles were associated with these differences, a finding with implications for crew selection and training.
Stephanie Ying-Fen Chen
Full Text Available Two experiments investigated how category information is used in decision making under uncertainty and whether the framing of category information influences how it is used. Subjects were presented with vignettes in which the categorization of a critical item was ambiguous and were asked to choose among a set of actions with the goal of attaining the desired outcome for the main character in the story. The normative decision making strategy was to base the decision on all possible categories; however, research on a related topic, category-based induction, has found that people often only consider a single category when making predictions when categorization is uncertain. These experiments found that subjects tend to consider multiple categories when making decisions, but do so both when it is and is not appropriate, suggesting that use of multiple categories is not driven by an understanding of what categories are and are not relevant to the decision. Similarly, although a framing manipulation increased the rate of multiple-category use, it did so in situations in which multiple-category use was and was not appropriate.
The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) measures affective decision making and has revealed decision making impairments across a wide range of eating disorders. This study aimed to investigate affective decision making in severely obese individuals.
de la Rosa, Leonidas Enrique
If our decision-making processes are to some extent shaped by evolutionary pressures and our environment is different from that to which we adapted, some of our choices will not be in our best interest. But revealed preference is the only tool that we have so far to conduct a normative analysis...
Szu, Harold; Jung, TP; Makeig, Scott
We propose to enhance the decision making of pilot, co-pilot teams, over a range of vehicle platforms, with the aid of neuroscience. The goal is to optimize this collaborative decision making interplay in time-critical, stressful situations. We will research and measure human facial expressions, personality typing, and brainwave measurements to help answer questions related to optimum decision-making in group situations. Further, we propose to examine the nature of intuition in this decision making process. The brainwave measurements will be facilitated by a University of California, San Diego (UCSD) developed wireless Electroencephalography (EEG) sensing cap. We propose to measure brainwaves covering the whole head area with an electrode density of N=256, and yet keep within the limiting wireless bandwidth capability of m=32 readouts. This is possible because solving Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and finding the hidden brainwave sources allow us to concentrate selective measurements with an organized sparse source -->s sensing matrix [Φs], rather than the traditional purely random compressive sensing (CS) matrix[Φ].
Yucel, Eray; Tokel, Emre
All decisions are practically made within a chainwise social setup named a decision-making chain (DMC). This paper considers some cases of an idea (a project proposal) propagating through an organizational DMC. Survival of a proposal through successive links of the DMC depends on the relative power of those links, in addition to proposal’s intrinsic value. Then it is not impossible to reject a good proposal or to fail to reject a bad proposal, either of which may generate undesired, though no...
There is a fundamental difference between the acceptability of a civilizatory or societal risk and the acceptability of the decision-making process that leads to a civilizatory or societal risk. The analysis of individual risk decisions - regarding who, executes when which indisputably hazardous, unhealthy or dangerous behaviour under which circumstances - is not helpful in finding solutions for the political decisions at hand in Germany concerning nuclear energy in particular or energy in general. The debt for implementation of any technology, in the sense of making the technology a success in terms of broad acceptance and general utilisation, lies with the particular industry involved. Regardless of the technology, innovation research identifies the implementation phase as most critical to the success of any innovation. In this sense, nuclear technology is at best still an innovation, because the implementation has not yet been completed. Fear and opposition to innovation are ubiquitous. Even the economy - which is often described as 'rational' - is full of this resistance. Innovation has an impact on the pivotal point between stability, the presupposition for the successful execution of decisions already taken and instability, which includes insecurity, but is also necessary for the success of further development. By definition, innovations are beyond our sphere of experience; not at the level of reliability and trust yet to come. Yet they are evaluated via the simplifying heuristics for making decisions proven not only to be necessary and useful, but also accurate in the familiar. The 'settlement of the debt of implementation', the accompanying communication, the decision-making procedures concerning the regulation of averse effects of the technology, but also the tailoring of the new technology or service itself must be directed to appropriate target groups. But the group often aimed at in the nuclear debate, the group, which largely determines political
Garcia, Luiz Henrique Costa, E-mail: email@example.com [Associacao de Medicina Intensiva Brasileira (AMIB), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Irmandade da Santa Casa de Misericordia de Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Ferreira, Bruna Cortez [Hospital de Base de Sao Jose do Rio Preto, SP (Brazil)
The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw-Hill Education); British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters); Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations. (author)
Garcia, Luiz Henrique Costa; Ferreira, Bruna Cortez
The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw-Hill Education); British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters); Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations. (author)
Luiz Henrique Costa Garcia
Full Text Available The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw- Hill Education; British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters; Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations.
Parsons, S; Jennings, NR
This paper summarises our on-going work on mixed- initiative decision making which extends both classical decision theory and a symbolic theory of decision making based on argumentation to a multi-agent domain.
Hulst, A.H. van der; Ruijsendaal, M.
Tactical-and strategic decision making in the safety domain is a form of 'complex decision making with Naturalistic Decision Making as the predomi-nant line of research. At the heart of the Decision Making expertise are 'situa-tion assessment capabilities, the most 'intuitive aspect of complex
R F&aauml;re; S Grosskopf; D Margaritis
In this note we extend the standard DEA paradigm to address the question of how one can price DMUs (decision-making units). To do this we use an adjoint transformation to the technology generated by these DMUs which links to traditional linear programming theory of the firm and is similar to pricing portfolios in financial markets. We also provide a numerical example illustrating the practicality of the proposed method.
Full Text Available Background: The decision about whether to start a family within a partnership can be viewed as a result of an interaction process. The influence of each of the partners in a couple differs depending on their individual preferences and intentions towards having children. Both of the partners additionally influence each other's fertility intentions and preferences. Objective: We specify, estimate, and test a model that examines the decision about whether to have a child as a choice that is made jointly by the two partners. The transition to the birth of a (further child is investigated with the explicit consideration of both the female partner and the male partner in the partnership context. Methods: An approach for modelling the interactive influences of the two actors in the decision-making process was proposed. A trivariate distribution consisting of both the female and the male partners' fertility intentions, as well as the joint generative decision, was modelled. A multivariate non-linear probit model was chosen and the problem of identification in estimating the relative effects of the actors was resolved. These parameters were used to assess the relative importance of each of the partners' intentions in the decision. We carried out the analysis with MPLUS. Data from the panel of intimate relationships and family dynamics (pairfam was used to estimate the model. Results: The biographical context of each of the partners in relation to their own as well as to their partner's fertility intentions was found to be of considerable importance. Of the significant individual and partner effects, the male partner was shown to have the greater influence. But the female partner was found to have stronger parameters overall and she ultimately has a veto power in the couple's final decision.
Distributed Decision Making and Control is a mathematical treatment of relevant problems in distributed control, decision and multiagent systems, The research reported was prompted by the recent rapid development in large-scale networked and embedded systems and communications. One of the main reasons for the growing complexity in such systems is the dynamics introduced by computation and communication delays. Reliability, predictability, and efficient utilization of processing power and network resources are central issues and the new theory and design methods presented here are needed to analyze and optimize the complex interactions that arise between controllers, plants and networks. The text also helps to meet requirements arising from industrial practice for a more systematic approach to the design of distributed control structures and corresponding information interfaces Theory for coordination of many different control units is closely related to economics and game theory network uses being dictated by...
Focuses on the use of graphic representations to enable students to improve their decision making skills in the social studies. Explores three visual aids used in assisting students with decision making: (1) the force field; (2) the decision tree; and (3) the decision making grid. (CMK)
Adida, M; Maurel, M; Kaladjian, A; Fakra, E; Lazerges, P; Da Fonseca, D; Belzeaux, R; Cermolacce, M; Azorin, J-M
Abnormalities involving the prefrontal cortex (PFC) have long been postulated to underpin the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. Investigations of PFC integrity have focused mainly on the dorsolateral PFC (DLPFC) and abnormalities in this region have been extensively documented. However, defects in schizophrenia may extend to other prefrontal regions, including the ventromedial PFC (VMPFC), and evidence of VMPFC abnormalities comes from neuropathological, structural and functional studies. Patients with acquired brain injury to the VMPFC display profound disruption of social behaviour and poor judgment in their personal lives. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was developed to assess decision-making in these neurological cases : it presents a series of 100 choices from four card decks that differ in the distribution of rewarding and punishing outcomes. Whilst healthy volunteers gradually develop a preference for the two "safe" decks over the course of the task, patients with VMPFC lesions maintain a preference for the two "risky" decks which are associated with high reinforcement in the short term, but significant long-term debt. Interestingly, damage to VMPFC may cause both poor performance on the IGT and lack of insight concerning the acquired personality modification. Recently, our group reported a trait-related decisionmaking impairment in the three phases of bipolar disorder. In a PET study, VMPFC dysfunction was shown in bipolar manic patients impaired on a decision-making task and an association between decision-making cognition and lack of insight was described in mania. A quantitative association between grey matter volume of VMPFC and memory impairment was previously reported in schizophrenia. Research suggests that lack of insight is a prevalent feature in schizophrenia patients, like auditory hallucinations, paranoid or bizarre delusions, and disorganized speech and thinking. Because schizophrenia is associated with significant social or occupational
Forsythe, J Chris [Sandia Park, NM; Speed, Ann E [Albuquerque, NM; Jordan, Sabina E [Albuquerque, NM; Xavier, Patrick G [Albuquerque, NM
A method for computer emulation of human decision making defines a plurality of concepts related to a domain and a plurality of situations related to the domain, where each situation is a combination of at least two of the concepts. Each concept and situation is represented in the computer as an oscillator output, and each situation and concept oscillator output is distinguishable from all other oscillator outputs. Information is input to the computer representative of detected concepts, and the computer compares the detected concepts with the stored situations to determine if a situation has occurred.
Bayesian evidence ratios give a very attractive way of comparing models, and being able to quote the odds on a particular model seems a very clear motivation for making a choice. Jeffreys' scale of evidence is often used in the interpretation of evidence ratios. A natural question is, how often will you get it right when you choose on the basis of some threshold value of the evidence ratio? The evidence ratio will be different in different realizations of the data, and its utility can be examined in a Neyman-Pearson like way to see what the trade-offs are between statistical power (the chance of "getting it right") versus the false alarm rate, picking the alternative hypothesis when the null is actually true. I will show some simple examples which show that there can be a surprisingly large range for an evidence ratio under different realizations of the data. It seems best not to simply rely on Jeffrey's scale when decisions have to be taken, but also to examine the probability of taking the "wrong" decision if some evidence ratio is taken to be decisive. Interestingly, Turing knew this and applied it during WWII, although (like much else) he did not publish it.
Bowmer, Grace; Latchford, Gary; Duff, Alistair; Denton, Miles; Dye, Louise; Lawton, Clare; Lee, Tim
Balancing cystic fibrosis (CF) care with demands of normal life is associated with decreased adherence to infection prevention and control (IPC) guidelines. Adults with CF, aged 18-25years, were invited to participate via UK CF Trust social media platforms. An online survey evaluated participants' decision-making in nine clinician-rated vignettes and assessed the perceived influence of infection-related information sources. Participants (n=87, mean 21.4years [SD=2.45]; 75% female) were less likely to engage in the high-risk scenarios, although demonstrated greater awareness of cross-infection than environmental risks. Associations between risk-perception and willingness to participate in five vignette-based hypothetical activities were significant (prisk-levels but are not always based on robust knowledge. They also show some inclination towards engaging in risky behaviours. Copyright © 2016 European Cystic Fibrosis Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Alameda Bailén, Jose Ramón; Paíno Quesada, Susana; Mogedas Valladares, Ana Isabel
Several neuropsychological studies have shown that chronic cannabis users have cognitive impairments, including decision-making process. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the process, through the somatic marker hypothesis in a sample of 41 cannabis users compared with a control group of equal size, and to analyze the influence of age, sex, education level, age of onset and amount of daily consumption. In order to do that, the software "Cartas" (similar to the Iowa Gambling Task), was used, implementing its two versions: normal and reverse. The results show significant differences between cannabis users and control group in the normal and reverse task execution. By block analysis, the control group obtained higher scores in the normal task execution, however, in the reverse task, the differences between groups are present in the initial task execution but not final task execution. None of the analyzed variables (age, sex ...) are significantly related to task performance. These results suggest the existence of alterations in the decision making process of consumers cannabis, which may relate to the difficulty in generating somatic markers, and not for insensitivity punishments insensitivity.
Wilson, Nick; Selak, Vanessa; Blakely, Tony; Leung, William; Clarke, Philip; Jackson, Rod; Knight, Josh; Nghiem, Nhung
Based on new systematic reviews of the evidence, the US Preventive Services Task Force has drafted updated guidelines on the use of low-dose aspirin for the primary prevention of both cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer. The Task Force generally recommends consideration of aspirin in adults aged 50-69 years with 10-year CVD risk of at least 10%, in who absolute health gain (reduction of CVD and cancer) is estimated to exceed absolute health loss (increase in bleeds). With the ongoing decline in CVD, current risk calculators for New Zealand are probably outdated, so it is difficult to be precise about what proportion of the population is in this risk category (roughly equivalent to 5-year CVD risk ≥5%). Nevertheless, we suspect that most smokers aged 50-69 years, and some non-smokers, would probably meet the new threshold for taking low-dose aspirin. The country therefore needs updated guidelines and risk calculators that are ideally informed by estimates of absolute net health gain (in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per person) and cost-effectiveness. Other improvements to risk calculators include: epidemiological rigour (eg, by addressing competing mortality); providing enhanced graphical display of risk to enhance risk communication; and possibly capturing the issues of medication disutility and comparison with lifestyle changes.
Full Text Available it better 3. Do new things Using available information for better decision-making Lead to smartness Business • How to identify decisions that have significant value and relevant decision data • What is the value of improved...) Manage Process / Enable Actuation (Act, Intervene, Outcome) Non-linear layers interconnected by data flows Smarter decision- making stack CSIR examples: Smarter decision-making Smart city Logistics Subsidence Infra- structure...
Gutiérrez, Luis Alberto; Pacheco, Sergio; Juárez, Alethia Yurithzi; Palacios, Luis Alexandro; Cerqueira, Maria Teresa
This report describes the implementation process and functional structure of the Observatory of Security and Citizen Conviviality of the Juarez Municipality (Observatorio de Seguridad y Convivencia Ciudadanas del Municipio de Juárez) in Chihuahua, Mexico, and discusses the most relevant lessons learned and main challenges in the near future. The Observatory, created in 2008, is a joint effort of the Juarez Municipal Government, Autonomous University of Ciudad Juarez (Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez), and the Pan American Health Organization. The Observatory's main objective is to propose strategies and public policy recommendations to prevent and control violence and injuries in the Juarez Municipality. Most key federal, state, and local agencies have joined this independent autonomous citizen-based initiative, feed the databases, and benefit from the information produced by a multisectoral, multidisciplinary approach. The Observatory contributes far more than the technical data provided and its facilitating functions. The clear results obtained in such a short time-as seen in the preliminary results of the case study on road injuries from January 2009 to July 2011-demonstrate the appropriateness of this course of action and should stimulate the creation of new observatories whenever and wherever needed. Lessons learned, as discussed here, can open the way to new endeavors, and current challenges show how much work remains to be done.
Runkler, Thomas; Coupland, Simon; John, Robert
Full text on Nottingham eprints - http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/36609/ This paper concerns itself with decision making under uncertainty and the consideration of risk. Type-1 fuzzy logic by its (essentially) crisp nature is limited in modelling decision making as there is no uncertainty in the membership function. We are interested in the role that interval type-2 fuzzy sets might play in enhancing decision making. Previous work by Bellman and Zadeh considered decision making to be based...
Andersen, Jens Enevold Thaulov
It has been long recognized that results of analytical chemistry are not flawless, owing to the fact that professional laboratories and research laboratories analysing the same type of samples by the same type of instruments are likely to obtain significantly different results. The European......, forensics and other fields of science where analytical chemistry is the key instrument of decision making. In order to elucidate the potential origin of the statistical variations found among laboratories, a major program was undertaken including several analytical technologies where the purpose...... of accuracy published in research literature. The possible deviations are suspected to originate from long-term variations of detection systems of instrumental analysis, and the impact on these findings on future measurements of analytical chemistry is discussed....
Yager, Ronald R
We consider the problem of multicriteria decision making (MCDM) in the situation in which there exists a prioritization of criteria. A good example of prioritization among criteria occurs in the case of air travel, where concerns about passenger safety have a higher priority then economic concerns. Tradeoffs between saving on gasoline usage and jeopardizing passenger safety are unacceptable. We show how this prioritization of criteria can be modeled by using importance weights in which the weights associated with the lower priority criteria are related to the satisfaction of the higher priority criteria. We provide some models that allow for the formalization of these prioritized MCDM problems using both the Bellman-Zadeh paradigm for MCDM and the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator method.
A rule-based decision making model is designed in G2 environment. A theoretical and methodological frame for the model is composed and motivated. The rule-based decision making model is based on object-oriented modelling, knowledge engineering and decision theory. The idea of safety objective tree is utilized. Advanced rule-based methodologies are applied. A general decision making model 'decision element' is constructed. The strategy planning of the decision element is based on e.g. value theory and utility theory. A hypothetical process model is built to give input data for the decision element. The basic principle of the object model in decision making is division in tasks. Probability models are used in characterizing component availabilities. Bayes' theorem is used to recalculate the probability figures when new information is got. The model includes simple learning features to save the solution path. A decision analytic interpretation is given to the decision making process. (author)
Bridge, Jeffrey A.; McBee-Strayer, Sandra M.; Cannon, Elizabeth A.; Sheftall, Arielle H.; Reynolds, Brady; Campo, John V.; Pajer, Kathleen A.; Barbe, Remy P.; Brent, David A.
Objective: Decision-making deficits have been linked to suicidal behavior in adults. However, it remains unclear whether impaired decision making plays a role in the etiopathogenesis of youth suicidal behavior. The purpose of this study was to examine decision-making processes in adolescent suicide attempters and never-suicidal comparison…
Seidl, C.; Traub, S.
This paper investigates the existence of an editing phase and studies the com- pliance of subjects' behaviour with the most popular multiattribute decision rules. We observed that our data comply well with the existence of an editing phase, at least if we allow for a natural error rate of some 25%.
Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene
Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.
Full Text Available The main purpose of this study is to explore the relation between decision-making styles which are measured by the General decision-making style (GDMS test and information processing styles which are often termed cognitive styles and are, in this study, measured by Cognitive Style Inventory. The authors directed a survey research on 162 Iranian students. Structural equation modeling techniques were used to measure the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles. The authors found that cognitive styles have a positive impact on decision-making styles. In spite of the abundant research on factors that affect decision-making styles, few researches have tested the relationship between cognitive styles and decision-making styles. This study examines the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles in Iran. This study, like most research paper studies, cannot easily be generalized. Furthermore, the results of this study could be affected by economic conditions.
... Home Current Issue Past Issues Preventing Breast Cancer: Making Progress Past Issues / Fall 2006 Table of Contents ... the time a woman is taking the pills, notes Leslie Ford, M.D., associate director for NCI's ...
Decision-making has evolved recently thanks to the introduction of information and communication technologies in many organizations, which has led to new kinds of decision-making processes, called "collaborative decision-making", at the organizational and cognitive levels. This book looks at the development of the decision-making process in organizations. Decision-aiding and its paradigm of problem solving are defined, showing how decision-makers now need to work in a cooperative way. Definitions of cooperation and associated concepts such as collaboration and coordination are given and a framework of cooperative decision support systems is presented, including intelligent DSS, cooperative knowledge-based systems, workflow, group support systems, collaborative engineering, integrating with a collaborative decision-making model in part or being part of global projects. Several models and experimental studies are also included showing that these new processes have to be supported by new types of tools, several ...
Hagmayer, Y.; Witteman, C.L.M.
Normative causal decision theories argue that people should use their causal knowledge in decision making. Based on these ideas, we argue that causal knowledge and reasoning may support and thereby potentially improve decision making based on expected outcomes, narratives, and even cues. We will
West, Dana R.
Students and their parents/guardians rely on school counselors to provide counseling services based on ethically sound principles. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence about what influences a school counselor's ethical decision making. Ethical decision making for this study was defined as the degree to which decisions pertaining to…
Morey, Janis T.; Dansereau, Donald F.
College students' decision making is often less than optimal and sometimes leads to negative consequences. The effectiveness of two strategies for improving student decision making--node-link mapping and social perspective taking (SPT)--are examined. Participants using SPT were significantly better able to evaluate decision options and develop…
Ko, C-H; Wang, P-W; Liu, T-L; Chen, C-S; Yen, C-F; Yen, J-Y
Persistent gaming, despite acknowledgment of its negative consequences, is a major criterion for individuals with Internet gaming disorder (IGD). This study evaluated the adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of individuals with IGD. We recruited 87 individuals with IGD and 87 without IGD (matched controls). All participants underwent an interview based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th Edition) diagnostic criteria for IGD and completed an adaptive decision-making task; the Preference for Intuition and Deliberation Scale, Chen Internet Addiction Scale, and Barratt Impulsivity Scale were also assessed on the basis of the information from the diagnostic interviews. The results demonstrated that the participants in both groups tend to make more risky choices in advantage trials where their expected value (EV) was more favorable than those of the riskless choice. The tendency to make a risky choice in advantage trials was stronger among IGD group than that among controls. Participants of both groups made more risky choices in the loss domain, a risky option to loss more versus sure loss option, than they did in the gain domain, a risky option to gain more versus sure gain. Furthermore, the participants with IGD made more risky choices in the gain domain than did the controls. Participants with IGD showed higher and lower preferences for intuitive and deliberative decision-making styles, respectively, than controls and their preferences for intuition and deliberation were positively and negatively associated with IGD severity, respectively. These results suggested that individuals with IGD have elevated EV sensitivity for decision-making. However, they demonstrated risky preferences in the gain domain and preferred an intuitive rather than deliberative decision-making style. This might explain why they continue Internet gaming despite negative consequences. Thus, therapists should focus more on decision-making
Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)
The importance of crew decision making to aviation safety has been well established through NTSB accident analyses: Crew judgment and decision making have been cited as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents in commercial air transport, general aviation, and military aviation. Yet the bulk of research on decision making has not proven helpful in improving the quality of decisions in the cockpit. One reason is that traditional analytic decision models are inappropriate to the dynamic complex nature of cockpit decision making and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions. A new model of dynamic naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove more useful for training or aiding cockpit decision making. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulation and National Transportation Safety Board accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation and reflect the crew's metacognitive skill. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relation between communication that serves to build performance. Implications of these findings for crew training will be discussed.
Mosqueda-Díaz, Angélica; Mendoza-Parra, Sara; Jofré-Aravena, Viviane
Decision making in health is a frequent situation, although potentially difficult, depending on patient/user characteristics and the context or the situation of health. This causes decisional conflicts in patients/users. The present study proposes to analyze the decision making process in health, conceptually, and nurses' contributions to understand and confront the phenomenon. The Ottawa the Model of Decisions Making in Health, proposed by Annette O'Connor, arises as a useful tool that enables nurses to carry out effective interventions with persons who face decision problems. Patients/users can assume a more active participation in the decisions on their own health.
cognitive load is associated with poorer decision- making ( Gonzalez , 2005). These findings suggest that measuring changes in pupil diameter could be...decision-making. Cerebral Cortex, 2013b. Cleotilde Gonzalez . Task workload and cognitive abilities in dynamic decision making. Hu- man Factors: The Journal...The past 25years. Vision research, 51(13):1457–1483, 2011. Olav E Krigolson, Lara J Pierce, Clay B Holroyd, and James W Tanaka. Learning to become
Mahmoud Motvaseli; Fariba Lotfizadeh
The main purpose of this study is to explore the relation between decision-making styles which are measured by the General decision-making style (GDMS) test and information processing styles which are often termed cognitive styles and are, in this study, measured by Cognitive Style Inventory. The authors directed a survey research on 162 Iranian students. Structural equation modeling techniques were used to measure the impact of cognitive styles on decision-making styles. The authors found th...
Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan; Spector, J Michael
The increasingly complex environment of today's world, characterized by technological innovation and global communication, generates myriads of possible and actual interactions while limited physical and intellectual resources severely impinge on decision makers, be it in the public or private domains. At the core of the decision-making process is the need for quality information that allows the decision maker to better assess the impact of decisions in terms of outcomes, nonlinear feedback processes and time delays on the performance of the complex system invoked. This volume is a timely review on the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic envrionments and of the various modeling approaches used. The book consists of five parts, each composed of several chapters: I: Complex Decision Making: Concepts, Theories and Empirical Evidence II: Tools and Techniques for Decision Making in Complex Environments and Systems III: System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling IV:...
Bossaerts, Peter; Murawski, Carsten
The rationality principle postulates that decision-makers always choose the best action available to them. It underlies most modern theories of decision-making. The principle does not take into account the difficulty of finding the best option. Here, we propose that computational complexity theory (CCT) provides a framework for defining and quantifying the difficulty of decisions. We review evidence showing that human decision-making is affected by computational complexity. Building on this evidence, we argue that most models of decision-making, and metacognition, are intractable from a computational perspective. To be plausible, future theories of decision-making will need to take into account both the resources required for implementing the computations implied by the theory, and the resource constraints imposed on the decision-maker by biology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Kárný, Miroslav; Wolpert, David
This volume focuses on uncovering the fundamental forces underlying dynamic decision making among multiple interacting, imperfect and selﬁsh decision makers. The chapters are written by leading experts from different disciplines, all considering the many sources of imperfection in decision making, and always with an eye to decreasing the myriad discrepancies between theory and real world human decision making. Topics addressed include uncertainty, deliberation cost and the complexity arising from the inherent large computational scale of decision making in these systems. In particular, analyses and experiments are presented which concern: • task allocation to maximize “the wisdom of the crowd”; • design of a society of “edutainment” robots who account for one anothers’ emotional states; • recognizing and counteracting seemingly non-rational human decision making; • coping with extreme scale when learning causality in networks; • efﬁciently incorporating expert knowledge in personalized...
Hansen, Claus Thorp; Andreasen, Mogens Myrup
In this paper we present the decision score, which is a model of decision-making seen in the engineering designer's perspective of the design process dynamics, where a decision has multiple objects and where it is based on earlier decisions, prediction of consequences and design process progression....... The model is based on four observations: the engineering designers do not see a neat string of distinct and explicitly made decisions, there are several decision-makers during design, a design decision is not made at a distinct moment in time, and the decision object is evolving in time and changing...... in context. We have successfully made an attempt to justify the model by confronting it with several empirical studies of design decision-making....
Reduction in prices now makes it possible for almost any institution to use computer graphics for administrative decision making and research. Current and potential uses of computer graphics in these two areas are discussed. (JN)
Full Text Available It is not known whether patients with juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME differ from healthy people in decision making under risk, i.e., when the decision-making context offers explicit information about options, probabilities, and consequences already from the beginning. In this study, we adopted the Game of Dice Task-Double to investigate decision making under risk in a group of 36 patients with JME (mean age 25.25/SD 5.29 years and a group of 38 healthy controls (mean age 26.03/SD 4.84 years. Participants also underwent a comprehensive neuropsychological assessment focused on frontal executive functions. Significant group differences were found in tests of psychomotor speed and divided attention, with the patients scoring lower than the controls. Importantly, patients made risky decisions more frequently than controls. In the patient group, poor decision making was associated with poor executive control, poor response inhibition, and a short interval since the last seizure episode. Executive control and response inhibition could predict 42% of variance in the frequency of risky decisions. This study indicates that patients with JME with poorer executive functions are more likely to make risky decisions than healthy controls. Decision making under risk is of major importance in every-day life, especially with regard to treatment decisions and adherence to long-term medical therapy. Since even a single disadvantageous decision may have long-lasting consequences, this finding is of high relevance.
Daniel L. Schmoldt; David L. Peterson
Public land managers must treat multiple values coincidentally in time and space, which requires the participation of multiple resource specialists and consideration of diverse clientele interests in the decision process. This implies decision making that includes multiple participants, both internally and externally. Decades of social science research on decision...
Five types of decision-uncertainty are distinguished: uncertainty of consequences, of values, of demarcation, of reliance, and of co-ordination. Strategies are proposed for each type of uncertainty. The general conclusion is that it is meaningful for decision theory to treat cases with greater uncertainty than the textbook case of 'decision-making under uncertainty'. (au)
Faggion, Clovis Mariano; Pachur, Thorsten; Giannakopoulos, Nikolaos Nikitas
Shared decision-making involves the participation of patient and dental practitioner. Well-informed decision-making requires that both parties understand important concepts that may influence the decision. This fourth article in a series of 4 aims to discuss the importance of patients' values when a clinical decision is made. We report on how to incorporate important concepts for well-informed, shared decision-making. Here, we present patient values as an important issue, in addition to previously established topics such as the risk of bias of a study, cost-effectiveness of treatment approaches, and a comparison of therapeutic benefit with potential side effects. We provide 2 clinical examples and suggestions for a decision tree, based on the available evidence. The information reported in this article may improve the relationship between patient and dental practitioner, resulting in more well-informed clinical decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
van Vliet, Hans; Tang, Anthony
Traditionally, software architecture is seen as the result of the software architecture design process, the solution, usually represented by a set of components and connectors. Recently, the why of the solution, the set of design decisions made by the software architect, is complementing or even
Reynolds, Charles H.
Sound ethical decisions depend on clear problem definition, careful review of alternatives, consideration of consequences, and thoughtful application of relevant principles of responsibility. Often they also require a willingness to receive corrective insight and to check judgments with moral intuitions. Higher education has a special…
Fuzzy sets and interval analysis tools to make computations and solve optimisation problems are presented. Fuzzy and interval extensions of Decision Theory criteria for decision-making under parametric uncertainty of prior information (probabilities, payoffs) are developed. An interval probability approach to the mean-value criterion is proposed. (author)
Gong, Jingjing; Zhang, Yan; Feng, Jun; Huang, Yonghua; Wei, Yazhou; Zhang, Weiwei
Numerous studies have demonstrated the robustness of the framing effect in a variety of contexts, especially in medical decision making. Unfortunately, research is still inconsistent as to how so many variables impact framing effects in medical decision making. Additionally, much attention should be paid to the framing effect not only in hypothetical scenarios but also in clinical experience.
This document describes some parameters and fundamental criteria which should be taken into account by the safety authorities in the decision making. Added to these principles, internal procedures, devoted to an integrated framework of decision making, should be implemented. This presentation is based on the study realized by an experts Group of the Nuclear Energy Agency. (A.L.B.)
This thesis presents experimental research on deviations from the standard theory of decision-making under risk. It focuses on two types of situations in which they are likely to occur. In the first part, the case of individual decision making with delayed resolution of risk is considered. It is
Gong, Jingjing; Zhang, Yan; Feng, Jun; Huang, Yonghua; Wei, Yazhou; Zhang, Weiwei
Numerous studies have demonstrated the robustness of the framing effect in a variety of contexts, especially in medical decision making. Unfortunately, research is still inconsistent as to how so many variables impact framing effects in medical decision making. Additionally, much attention should be paid to the framing effect not only in hypothetical scenarios but also in clinical experience. PMID:27034630
Long, Arwen B.; Kuhn, Cynthia M.; Platt, Michael L.
Some people love taking risks, while others avoid gambles at all costs. The neural mechanisms underlying individual variation in preference for risky or certain outcomes, however, remain poorly understood. Although behavioral pathologies associated with compulsive gambling, addiction and other psychiatric disorders implicate deficient serotonin signaling in pathological decision making, there is little experimental evidence demonstrating a link between serotonin and risky decision making, in ...
Zavadskas, Edmundas Kazimieras; Govindan, K.; Antucheviciene, Jurgita
Formal decision-making methods can be used to help improve the overall sustainability of industries and organisations. Recently, there has been a great proliferation of works aggregating sustainability criteria by using diverse multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques. A number of revi...
The problem. Educational leaders face challenges in the 21st century, make numerous decisions daily, and have the choice to make decisions based on ethics. Educational leaders may follow a corporate model regarding expenses and revenues while ignoring the best interests of children and their academic achievement. The alternative to the corporate…
Murtagh, Madeleine J; Hepworth, Julie
Over the past two decades medical researchers and modernist feminist researchers have contested the meaning of menopause. In this article we examine various meanings of menopause in major medical and feminist literature and the construction of menopause in a semi-structured interview study of general practitioners in rural South Australia. Three discursive themes are identified in these interviews; (i) .the hormonal menopause - symptoms, risk, prevention; (ii). the informed menopausal woman; and (iii). decision-making and hormone replacement therapy. By using the discourse of prevention, general practitioners construct menopause in relation to women's health care choices, empowerment and autonomy. We argue that the ways in which these concepts are deployed by general practitioners in this study produces and constrains the options available to women. The implications of these general practitioner accounts are discussed in relation to the proposition that medical and feminist descriptions of menopause posit alternative but equally-fixed truths about menopause and their relationship with the range of responses available to women at menopause. Social and cultural explanations of disease causality (c.f. Germov 1998, Hardey 1998) are absent from the new menopause despite their being an integral part of the framework of the women's health movement and health promotion drawn on by these general practitioners. Further, the shift of responsibility for health to the individual woman reinforces practice claims to empower women, but oversimplifies power relations and constructs menopause as a site of self-surveillance. The use of concepts from the women's health movement and health promotion have nevertheless created change in both the positioning of women as having 'choices' and the positioning of some general practitioners in terms of greater information provision to women and an attention to the woman's autonomy. In conclusion, we propose that a new menopause has evolved
V. I. Yukalov; D. Sornette
The influence of additional information on the decision making of agents, who are interacting members of a society, is analyzed within the mathematical framework based on the use of quantum probabilities. The introduction of social interactions, which influence the decisions of individual agents, leads to a generalization of the quantum decision theory developed earlier by the authors for separate individuals. The generalized approach is free of the standard paradoxes of classical decision th...
Full Text Available People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.
Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael
People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people’s decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others’ authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions. PMID:26784448
Ramos Pozón, Sergio
In this paper we analyze the process of the surrogate decision making in schizophrenic patients. First, we rely on a number of ethical principles that will guide the surrogate decision making. Second, we analyze which are the legal rules about guardianship and conservatorship. Third, we expose some action rules for the trial for substitution. Fourth, we develop some norms for the intervention that impose limit to substitutes. Finally, we make a proposal about who is best trained to represent ...
Malik, Har G. S.
The hypotheses tested that (1) anxiety and (2) extraversion (exvia) would be negatively related to career making ability. Variables defined as contributing to anxiety included ego weakness, excitability, low superego strength, threat sensitivity and high ergic tension. Extraversion was considered the "general tendency to social interaction" with…
Kroese, G.J.; Staring, R.H.J.M.
This is a summary of a research into the motives of (bank) robbers and the choices they make. Information is presented on the offender's backgrounds, criminal careers, goals and typology, preparation and way of conduction of the robbery, the escape, opions of robbers, social organization and
part in and influence his/her daily life, the child is not seen as a becoming but as a being. Theoretical foundation and practical examples will be given, and the chapter will explore not only how to bring up children as active democrats but also how to encourage them from early age to make use...
Full Text Available Supported decision-making is at the forefront of modern disability research. This is due to Article 12 of the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD, which creates a state obligation to provide support for the exercise of legal capacity. This turned the practice of supported decision-making into a human rights imperative. Government and funding agencies are increasingly focusing their attention on the area. Researchers are similarly increasing their interest in the field. The impending danger is that the rush of interest in the area will overshadow the original intention of supported decision-making: to ensure that people with cognitive disability are provided with the freedom and the tools to participate as equal citizens and for every individual to be free to direct their own life. This article explores the theoretical foundations of supported decision-making and the evolution of supported decision-making research. It explains the research that is emerging in leading jurisdictions, the United States and Australia, and its potential to transform disability services and laws related to decision-making. Finally, it identifies areas of concern in the direction of such research and provides recommendations for ensuring that supported decision-making remains protective of the rights, will and preferences of people with cognitive disability.
Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....
Søndergaard, Erik Stefan; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema
Many engineering companies experience new challenges when globalising product development. Global product development (GPD) is a relatively nascent research area, and previous research reveals the need for decision support frameworks. This research investigates how decisions are made when companies...... outsource or offshore product development tasks, and how these decisions can be improved. A brief literature review on existing research on GPD and decision making is given, followed by two case studies, where implications of decisions are investigated. The findings point towards further studies required...
Full Text Available The relationships between personality and career decision making in undergraduates are analyzed in this work. The hypothesis is that efficient personality is associated with the more mature process of career decision making. For this hypothesis, the Questionnaire of Efficient Personality and the Inventory of Career Factors was administered to 497 students in their final year of undergraduate school. The collected data was put under factorial analysis, analysis of differences of averages, and analysis of variance. The results confirm that an effective personality is tied to career decision making based as much on one´s knowledge of oneself as an understanding of the working world.
Woodhouse, C. A.; Crimmins, M.; Ferguson, D. B.; Garfin, G. M.; Scott, C. A.
As society is confronted with population growth, limited resources, and the impacts of climate variability and change, it is vital that institutions of higher education promote the development of professionals who can work with decision-makers to incorporate scientific information into environmental planning and management. Skills for the communication of science are essential, but equally important is the ability to understand decision-making contexts and engage with resource managers and policy makers. It is increasingly being recognized that people who understand the linkages between science and decision making are crucial if science is to better support planning and policy. A new graduate-level seminar, "Making the Connection between Environmental Science and Decision Making," is a core course for a new post-baccalaureate certificate program, Connecting Environmental Science and Decision Making at the University of Arizona. The goal of the course is to provide students with a basic understanding of the dynamics between scientists and decision makers that result in scientific information being incorporated into environmental planning, policy, and management decisions. Through readings from the environmental and social sciences, policy, and planning literature, the course explores concepts including scientific information supply and demand, boundary organizations, co-production of knowledge, platforms for engagement, and knowledge networks. Visiting speakers help students understand some of the challenges of incorporating scientific information into planning and decision making within institutional and political contexts. The course also includes practical aspects of two-way communication via written, oral, and graphical presentations as well as through the interview process to facilitate the transfer of scientific information to decision makers as well as to broader audiences. We aspire to help students develop techniques that improve communication and
S. NAZARI-SHIRKOUHI; A. ANSARINEJAD; SS. MIRI-NARGESI; V. MAJAZI DALFARD; K. REZAIE
During the last decade, information system (IS) outsourcing has emerged as a major issue for organizations. As outsourcing decisions are often based on multicriteria approaches and group decisions, this paper proposes a structured methodology based on Fuzzy group decision making approach to evaluate and select the appropriate information system project (ISP) in an actual case. To achieve our purpose, we argue that seven criteria consisting of risk, management, economics, technology, resource,...
Lu, Jie; Zhang, Guangquan
This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.
Piet, Steven James; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Dakins, Maxine Ellen
Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. “Cleanup” includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done - some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches, including: • New ways (mental model) to analyze and visualize the problem, • Awareness of the option to shift strategy or reframe from a single decision to an adaptable network of decisions, and • Improved tactical processes that account for several challenges. These include the following: • Stakeholder values are a more fundamental basis for decision making and keeping than “meeting regulations.” • Late-entry players and future generations will question decisions. • People may resist making “irreversible” decisions. • People need “compelling reasons” to take action in the face of uncertainties. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period—from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept “as is” or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: • Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? • Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? • Resources: what is available to implement
Public health, prevention, health education and health promotion are inseparable from the concepts of information and communication. Information should respond as much as possible to the needs of professionals, decision-makers, and consumers who are more and more concerned and conscious of its importance in light of "information overload", various dissemination channels and the multiplicity of its sources. There are numerous issues at stake ranging from comprehension, to the validation of health information, health education, health promotion, prevention, decision-making, as well as issues related to knowledge and power. Irrespective of the type of choice to be made, the need for information, knowledge, and know-how is inseparable from that of other tools or regulatory measures required for decision-making. Information is the same as competence, epidemiological and population data, health data, scientific opinion, and expert conferences--all are needed to assist in decision-making. Based on the principle of precaution, information must increasingly take into account the rejection of a society which often reasons on the basis of a presumption of zero-risk, in an idealistic manner, and which also excludes the possibility of new risks. The consumer positions himself as the regulator of decisions, specifically those with regard to the notion of acceptable level of risk. All of the actors involved in the health system are or become at one moment or another public health decision-makers. Their decision might be based either on an analytical approach, or on an intuitive approach. Although the act of decision-making is the least visible part of public health policy, it is certainly the driving force. This process should integrate the perspective of all of the relevant players, including consumers, who are currently situated more and more frequently at the heart of the health system. Public health decision-making is conducted as a function of political, strategic and
Full Text Available Range of investment decision is wide from the size point of view. It ranges from minor investment for changing technological operations to huge investments in building new capacities which need both domestic and foreign funds. Decision risk is proportional with the amount of investment, but it does not depend only on amount. For those investment research for decision making must be adequate
Pristed Nielsen, Helene
Based on theories of public sphere participation and deliberative democracy, this book presents empirical results from a study of experiences with including Aboriginal and Maori groups in political decision-making in respectively Western Australia and New Zealand...
Van Vo, Dut; Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd; de Jong, Gjalt
This paper investigates how decision-making autonomy affects the possibility and intensity of innovation in subsidiaries of multinational enterprises (MNEs). Subsidiaries are increasingly identified as sources of innovation and as vehicles for cross-border transfer of new competences. The question...... of how much decision-making autonomy subsidiaries should have is a core issue in the management of headquarters-subsidiary relationships. Using two complementary theoretical perspectives, we hypothesize a non-linear relationship between subsidiary’s decision-making autonomy and innovation. We test our...... hypothesis in a multi-country and multiindustry database based on survey evidence of 134 subsidiaries located in five Central and Eastern European countries from 23 home countries. The empirical results provide support for a non-linear U shaped relationship between subsidiary decision-making autonomy...
Aalbers, H.L.; Whelan, E.; Parise, S.; Vialle, C.
The article focuses on the organizational decision-making management. Topics mentioned include the development of enterprise social software (ESS), the online corporate communities management, and the project management. Also mentioned are the importance of customer services, the bankruptcy
Peter J. Roussopoulos; Von J. Johnson
Describes how to compare predictions of fuel hazard for Northeastern logging slash with a number of fuel hazard "standards." This system provides objective criteria for making fuel management decisions.
Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Kaplan, Brent A
As research on decision making in addiction accumulates, it is increasingly clear that decision-making processes are dysfunctional in addiction and that this dysfunction may be fundamental to the initiation and maintenance of addictive behavior. How drug-dependent individuals value and choose among drug and nondrug rewards is consistently different from non-dependent individuals. The present review focuses on the assessment of decision-making in addiction. We cover the common behavioral tasks that have shown to be fruitful in decision-making research and highlight analytical and graphical considerations, when available, to facilitate comparisons within and among studies. Delay discounting tasks, drug demand tasks, drug choice tasks, the Iowa Gambling Task, and the Balloon Analogue Risk Task are included. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Hess, Søren; Bjerring, Ole Steen; Pfeiffer, Per
and initial stages. This article outlines the potential use of fluorodeoxyglucose-PET/CT in clinical decision making with special regard to preoperative evaluation and response assessment in gastric cancer (including the gastroesophageal junction), pancreatic cancer (excluding neuroendocrine tumors...
Dec 1, 2017 ... all the decisions, and I am in agreement with this arrangement, then according to some ethicists, it is considered autonomous behaviour to let my partner make decisions on my behalf. We know that there are many subconscious influences at play when one consents to a procedure or operation, yet when ...
Veksler, Vladislav D.; Gray, Wayne D.; Schoelles, Michael J.
Reinforcement learning (RL) models of decision-making cannot account for human decisions in the absence of prior reward or punishment. We propose a mechanism for choosing among available options based on goal-option association strengths, where association strengths between objects represent previously experienced object proximity. The proposed…
Rilling, J.K.; Sanfey, A.G.
Given that we live in highly complex social environments, many of our most important decisions are made in the context of social interactions. Simple but sophisticated tasks from a branch of experimental economics known as game theory have been used to study social decision-making in the laboratory
Bleiler-Baxter, Sarah K.; Stephens, D. Christopher; Baxter, Wesley A.; Barlow, Angela T.
The goal in this article is to support teachers in better understanding what it means to model with mathematics by focusing on three key decision-making processes: Simplification, Relationship Mapping, and Situation Analysis. The authors use the Theme Park task to help teachers develop a vision of how students engage in these three decision-making…
Full Text Available Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005. In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT’s ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes; Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1 or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2. These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.
Santos, Eugene; Nguyen, Hien; Russell, Jacob; Kim, Keumjoo; Veenhuis, Luke; Boparai, Ramnjit; Stautland, Thomas Kristoffer
A Commander's decision making style represents how he weighs his choices and evaluates possible solutions with regards to his goals. Specifically, in the naval warfare domain, it relates the way he processes a large amount of information in dynamic, uncertain environments, allocates resources, and chooses appropriate actions to pursue. In this paper, we describe an approach to capture a Commander's decision style by creating a cognitive model that captures his decisionmaking process and evaluate this model using a set of scenarios using an online naval warfare simulation game. In this model, we use the Commander's past behaviors and generalize Commander's actions across multiple problems and multiple decision making sequences in order to recommend actions to a Commander in a manner that he may have taken. Our approach builds upon the Double Transition Model to represent the Commander's focus and beliefs to estimate his cognitive state. Each cognitive state reflects a stage in a Commander's decision making process, each action reflects the tasks that he has taken to move himself closer to a final decision, and the reward reflects how close he is to achieving his goal. We then use inverse reinforcement learning to compute a reward for each of the Commander's actions. These rewards and cognitive states are used to compare between different styles of decision making. We construct a set of scenarios in the game where rational, intuitive and spontaneous decision making styles will be evaluated.
Cabrera, Lidia; Bethencourt, José-Tomás
The relationships between personality and career decision making in undergraduates are analyzed in this work. The hypothesis is that efficient personality is associated with the more mature process of career decision making. For this hypothesis, the Questionnaire of Efficient Personality and the Inventory of Career Factors was administered to 497 students in their final year of undergraduate school. The collected data was put under factorial analysis, analysis of differences of averages, and ...
At Darlington Nuclear aggregate assessment of plant conditions is carried out in support of Operational Decision Making. This paper discusses how aggregate assessments have been applied to Operator Workarounds leading to improved prioritisation and alignment of work programs in different departments. As well, aggregate assessment of plant and human performance factors has been carried out to identify criteria which support conservative decision making in the main control room during unit transients. (author)
Background: A descriptive neuroeconomic model is aimed for relativity of the concept of economic man to empirical science.Method: A 4-level client-server-integrator model integrating the brain models of McLean and Luria is the general framework for the model of empirical findings.Results: Decision making relies on integration across brain levels of emotional intelligence (LU) and logico-matematico intelligence (RIA), respectively. The integrated decision making formula approaching zero by bot...
Ross-Gillespie, Adin; Kümmerli, Rolf
Microbes are intensely social organisms that routinely cooperate and coordinate their activities to express elaborate population-level phenotypes. Such coordination requires a process of collective decision-making, in which individuals detect and collate information not only from their physical environment, but also from their social environment, in order to arrive at an appropriately calibrated response. Here, we present a conceptual overview of collective decision-making as it applies to al...
Madsen, Henrik; Albeanu, Grigore; Burtschy, Bernard
Decision making addresses the usage of various methods to select "the best", in some way, alternative strategy (from many available) when a problem is given for solving. The authors propose the usage of neutrosophic way of thinking, called also Smarandache's logic, to select a model by experts when...... degrees of trustability, ultrastability (falsehood), and indeterminacy are used to decide. The procedures deal with multi-attribute neutrosophic decision making and a case study on e-learning software objects is presented....
Broche-Pérez, Y; Herrera Jiménez, L F; Omar-Martínez, E
Decision-making is the process of selecting a course of action from among 2 or more alternatives by considering the potential outcomes of selecting each option and estimating its consequences in the short, medium and long term. The prefrontal cortex (PFC) has traditionally been considered the key neural structure in decision-making process. However, new studies support the hypothesis that describes a complex neural network including both cortical and subcortical structures. The aim of this review is to summarise evidence on the anatomical structures underlying the decision-making process, considering new findings that support the existence of a complex neural network that gives rise to this complex neuropsychological process. Current evidence shows that the cortical structures involved in decision-making include the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). This process is assisted by subcortical structures including the amygdala, thalamus, and cerebellum. Findings to date show that both cortical and subcortical brain regions contribute to the decision-making process. The neural basis of decision-making is a complex neural network of cortico-cortical and cortico-subcortical connections which includes subareas of the PFC, limbic structures, and the cerebellum. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
Rennie, Sarah C; van Rij, Andre M; Jaye, Chrystal; Hall, Katherine H
Decision making is a key competency of surgeons; however, how best to assess decisions and decision makers is not clearly established. The aim of the present study was to identify criteria that inform judgments about surgical trainees' decision-making skills. A qualitative free text web-based survey was distributed to recognized international experts in Surgery, Medical Education, and Cognitive Research. Half the participants were asked to identify features of good decisions, characteristics of good decision makers, and essential factors for developing good decision-making skills. The other half were asked to consider these areas in relation to poor decision making. Template analysis of free text responses was performed. Twenty-nine (52%) experts responded to the survey, identifying 13 categories for judging a decision and 14 for judging a decision maker. Twelve features/characteristics overlapped (considered, informed, well timed, aware of limitations, communicated, knowledgeable, collaborative, patient-focused, flexible, able to act on the decision, evidence-based, and coherent). Fifteen categories were generated for essential factors leading to development of decision-making skills that fall into three major themes (personal qualities, training, and culture). The categories compiled from the perspectives of good/poor were predominantly the inverse of each other; however, the weighting given to some categories varied. This study provides criteria described by experts when considering surgical decisions, decision makers, and development of decision-making skills. It proposes a working definition of a good decision maker. Understanding these criteria will enable clinical teachers to better recognize and encourage good decision-making skills and identify poor decision-making skills for remediation.
Background The majority of social marketing programs are intended to reach the poor. It is therefore essential that social marketing organizations monitor the health equity of their programs and improve targeting when the poor are not being reached. Current measurement approaches are often insufficient for decision making because they fail to show a program's ability to reach the poor and demonstrate progress over time. Further, effective program equity metrics should be benchmarked against a national reference population and consider exposure, not just health outcomes, to measure direct results of implementation. This study compares two measures of health equity, concentration indices and wealth quintiles, using a defined reference population, and considers benefits of both measures together to inform programmatic decision making. Methods Three datasets from recent cross-sectional behavioral surveys on malaria, HIV, and family planning from Nepal and Burkina Faso were used to calculate concentration indices and wealth quintiles. Each sample was standardized to national wealth distributions based on recent Demographic and Health Surveys. Wealth quintiles were generated and concentration indices calculated for health outcomes and program exposure in each sample. Chi-square and t-tests were used to assess statistical significance of results. Results Reporting wealth quintiles showed that recipients of Population Services International (PSI) interventions were wealthier than national populations. Both measures indicated that desirable health outcomes were usually concentrated among wealthier populations. Positive and significant concentration indices in all three surveys indicated that wealth and program exposure were correlated; however this relationship was not necessarily linear. In analyzing the equity of modern contraceptive use stratified by exposure to family planning messages in Nepal, the outcome was equitable (concentration index = 0.006, p = 0.68) among the
Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.
Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases.
Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.
Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases
While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the
Chakraborty, Nirali M; Firestone, Rebecca; Bellows, Nicole
The majority of social marketing programs are intended to reach the poor. It is therefore essential that social marketing organizations monitor the health equity of their programs and improve targeting when the poor are not being reached. Current measurement approaches are often insufficient for decision making because they fail to show a program's ability to reach the poor and demonstrate progress over time. Further, effective program equity metrics should be benchmarked against a national reference population and consider exposure, not just health outcomes, to measure direct results of implementation. This study compares two measures of health equity, concentration indices and wealth quintiles, using a defined reference population, and considers benefits of both measures together to inform programmatic decision making. Three datasets from recent cross-sectional behavioral surveys on malaria, HIV, and family planning from Nepal and Burkina Faso were used to calculate concentration indices and wealth quintiles. Each sample was standardized to national wealth distributions based on recent Demographic and Health Surveys. Wealth quintiles were generated and concentration indices calculated for health outcomes and program exposure in each sample. Chi-square and t-tests were used to assess statistical significance of results. Reporting wealth quintiles showed that recipients of Population Services International (PSI) interventions were wealthier than national populations. Both measures indicated that desirable health outcomes were usually concentrated among wealthier populations. Positive and significant concentration indices in all three surveys indicated that wealth and program exposure were correlated; however this relationship was not necessarily linear. In analyzing the equity of modern contraceptive use stratified by exposure to family planning messages in Nepal, the outcome was equitable (concentration index = 0.006, p = 0.68) among the exposed, while the wealthy
Full Text Available The emotional outcome of a choice affects subsequent decision making. While the relationship between decision making and emotion has attracted attention, studies on emotion and decision making have been independently developed. In this study, we investigated how the emotional valence of pictures, which was stochastically contingent on participants’ choices, influenced subsequent decision making. In contrast to traditional value-based decision-making studies that used money or food as a reward, the reward value of the decision outcome, which guided the update of value for each choice, is unknown beforehand. To estimate the reward value of emotional pictures from participants’ choice data, we used reinforcement learning models that have success- fully been used in previous studies for modeling value-based decision making. Consequently, we found that the estimated reward value was asymmetric between positive and negative pictures. The negative reward value of negative pictures (relative to neutral pictures was larger in magnitude than the positive reward value of positive pictures. This asymmetry was not observed in valence for an individual picture, which was rated by the participants regarding the emotion experienced upon viewing it. These results suggest that there may be a difference between experienced emotion and the effect of the experienced emotion on subsequent behavior. Our experimental and computational paradigm provides a novel way for quantifying how and what aspects of emotional events affect human behavior. The present study is a first step toward relating a large amount of knowledge in emotion science and in taking computational approaches to value-based decision making.
Simari, Gerardo I.; Parsons, Simon D.
Making rational decisions is one of the key elements in the design of autonomous agents with successful behavior. Even though there have been many proposals for the support of decision making, most of them can be described either as descriptive or prescriptive. The main goal of our work is to establish the relationship between two of these models, namely bdi and mdps, in order to gain further understanding of how decisions in one model are viewed from the point of view of the other. This goal...
Full Text Available Celia Deane-Drummond's case for wisdom as an approach to ethical decision making and her doubts about case-oriented methodology are critiqued with reference to the SRT Project's Engineering Genesis study. Its approach is explored in practical decisions on various real life examples of genetic modification in crops and animals. It involved both intrinsic and consequential approaches, and identified key value positions behind different policies and stakeholders. The paper also clarifies the relationship between reactive (cost-benefit and precautionary risk assessment, explaining their strengths and limitations, and the role of underlying values in both forms of risk decision making.
The nature of retailer buying is changing, but not so our conceptualisations. Existing literature on retailer buying is characterised by a rather narrow focus on what retail buyers decide and which decision criteria they use to make decisions, whereas comparatively little attention has been devoted...... to the processes of how and why certain decisions are made. This paper aims to move beyond a focus on single decisions as discrete events to viewing retailer buying as something that occurs in ongoing relationally-responsive interaction between retailers and suppliers....
Marble, Julie Lynne; Medema, Heather Dawne; Hill, Susan Gardiner
Eight participants were asked to view a computer-based multimedia presentation on an environmental phenomenon. Participants were asked to play a role as a senior aide to a national legislator. In this role, they were told that the legislator had asked them to review a multimedia presentation regarding the hypoxic zone phenomenon in the Gulf of Mexico. Their task in assuming the role of a senior aide was to decide how important a problem this issue was to the United States as a whole, and the proportion of the legislator’s research budget that should be devoted to study of the problem. The presentation was divided into 7 segments, each containing some new information not contained in the previous segments. After viewing each segment, participants were asked to indicate how close they were to making a decision and how certain they were that their current opinion would be their final decision. After indicating their current state of decision-making, participants were interviewed regarding the factors affecting their decision-making. Of interest was the process by which participants moved toward a decision. This experiment revealed a number of possible directions for future research. There appeared to be two approaches to decision-making: Some decision-makers moved steadily toward a decision, and occasionally reversed decisions after viewing information, while others abruptly reached a decision after a certain time period spent reviewing the information. Although the difference in estimates of distance to decisions did not differ statistically for these two groups, that difference was reflected in the participants’ estimates of confidence that their current opinion would be their final decision. The interviews revealed that the primary difference between these two groups was in their trade-offs between willingness to spend time in information search and the acquisition of new information. Participants who were less confident about their final decision, tended to be
Raicu, A.; Oanta, E.; Sabau, A.
Decision making process has a great influence in the development of a given project, the goal being to select an optimal choice in a given context. Because of its great importance, the decision making was studied using various science methods, finally being conceived the game theory that is considered the background for the science of logical decision making in various fields. The paper presents some basic ideas regarding the game theory in order to offer the necessary information to understand the multiple-criteria decision making (MCDM) problems in engineering. The solution is to transform the multiple-criteria problem in a one-criterion decision problem, using the notion of utility, together with the weighting sum model or the weighting product model. The weighted importance of the criteria is computed using the so-called Step method applied to a relation of preferences between the criteria. Two relevant examples from engineering are also presented. The future directions of research consist of the use of other types of criteria, the development of computer based instruments for decision making general problems and to conceive a software module based on expert system principles to be included in the Wiki software applications for polymeric materials that are already operational.
Full Text Available Byzantine fault tolerance is of high importance in the distributed computing environment where malicious attacks and software errors are common. A Byzantine process sends arbitrary messages to every other process. An effective fuzzy decision making approach is proposed to eliminate the Byzantine behaviour of the services in the distributed environment. It is proposed to derive a fuzzy decision set in which the alternatives are ranked with grade of membership and based on that an appropriate decision can be arrived on the messages sent by the different services. A balanced decision is to be taken from the messages received across the services. To accomplish this, Hurwicz criterion is used to balance the optimistic and pessimistic views of the decision makers on different services. Grades of membership for the services are assessed using the non-functional Quality of Service parameters and have been estimated using fuzzy entropy measure which logically ranks the participant services. This approach for decision making is tested by varying the number of processes, varying the number of faulty services, varying the message values sent to different services and considering the variation in the views of the decision makers about the services. The experimental result shows that the decision reached is an enhanced one and in case of conflict, the proposed approach provides a concrete result, whereas decision taken using the Lamport’s algorithm is an arbitrary one.
In the aftermath of seismic debacles like those that toppled Enron and WorldCom, corporate boards have been shaken up and made over. More directors are independent these days, for instance, and corporations now disclose directors' salaries and committee members' names. Research shows that most of the changes are having a positive effect on companies' performance. They are primarily structural, though, and don't go to the heart of a board's work: making the choices that shape a firm's future. Which decisions boards own and how those calls are made are largely hidden from the public. As a result, boards are often unable to learn from the best governance practices of their counterparts at other companies. This article pulls back the curtain and provides an inside look. Drawing on interviews with board members and executives at 31 companies, along with a close examination of three boardroom decisions, the author identifies several formal processes that can help companies improve their decision making: creating calendars that specify when the board and the standing committees will consider key items; drafting charters that define the decisions committees are responsible for; and developing decision protocols that divvy up responsibilities between directors and executives. The author also identifies a number of informal decision-making principles: Items that are strategically significant and touch on the firm's core values should go to the board. Large decisions should be divided into small pieces, so the board can devote sufficient attention to each one. Directors must remain vigilant to ensure that their decisions are effectively implemented. The CEO and either the nonexecutive chair or the lead director should engage in ongoing dialogue regarding which decisions to take to the full board and when. And directors should challenge assumptions before making yes-or-no decisions on management proposals.
Dwight, Alice Heasley
Essex Community College (Maryland) has instituted a one-credit course in career decision-making. The course is designed to aid the college student and the older adult in making a career-oriented assessment of personality needs, capacities, interests, and values with additional emphasis on local and national manpower needs. (Author/DC)
Bals, Lydia; Kneis, Kyra; Lemke, Christine
the decision making process on R&D outsourcing are lacking. To address this gap, we present a framework developed in the context of a multinational pharmaceutical company. The framework builds on general make-or-buy frameworks and incorporates specificities of the service and knowledge-driven areas...
Rogerson, Mark D.; Gottlieb, Michael C.; Handelsman, Mitchell M.; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey
Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasi-legal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior,…
Garabédian, M; Menn, S; Walrant-Debray, O; Teinturier, C; Delaveyne, R; Roden, A
Rickets can still be observed among children and adolescents living in Europe, and a significant proportion of healthy children and adolescents presents serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-(OH)D) values below the threshold indicating an insufficient vitamin D status. We have previously proposed detecting at risk individuals with a decision-making abacus based on questionnaires assessing calcium and vitamin D intakes and vitamin D production via sun exposure. We tested the validity of this detection by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, using, as the main outcome measure, the serum 25-(OH)D values measured at the time of questionnaires presentation. In addition, the original questionnaires have been simplified by limiting the items to those significantly associated with 25-(OH)D values. The study group included 116 children and adolescents aged 6 to 17 years, seen at the end of the winter, and randomized in 2 groups: "test", for the development of the tool (n =75), and "validation" (n =41). The present analysis shows that the proposed decision-making abacus has a sufficient ability to detect children at risk of vitamin D deficiency (with 25-(OH)D values below 10 ng/ml): area under the curve 0.748/0.895, sensibility 0.71/0.83, and specificity 0.62/0.80, in the test and validation groups, respectively. These questionnaire and abacus may offer a substantial help to detect children and adolescents at risk of vitamin D deficiency in both a private office or hospital environment.
Booister, Nikéh; Verkade, Jan; Werner, Micha; Cranston, Michael; Cumiskey, Lydia; Zevenbergen, Chris
Flood forecasting systems reduce, but cannot eliminate uncertainty about the future. Probabilistic forecasts explicitly show that uncertainty remains. However, as - compared to deterministic forecasts - a dimension is added ('probability' or 'likelihood'), with this added dimension decision making is made slightly more complicated. A technique of decision support is the cost-loss approach, which defines whether or not to issue a warning or implement mitigation measures (risk-based method). With the cost-loss method a warning will be issued when the ratio of the response costs to the damage reduction is less than or equal to the probability of the possible flood event. This cost-loss method is not widely used, because it motivates based on only economic values and is a technique that is relatively static (no reasoning, yes/no decision). Nevertheless it has high potential to improve risk-based decision making based on probabilistic flood forecasting because there are no other methods known that deal with probabilities in decision making. The main aim of this research was to explore the ways of making decision making based on probabilities with the cost-loss method better applicable in practice. The exploration began by identifying other situations in which decisions were taken based on uncertain forecasts or predictions. These cases spanned a range of degrees of uncertainty: from known uncertainty to deep uncertainty. Based on the types of uncertainties, concepts of dealing with situations and responses were analysed and possible applicable concepts where chosen. Out of this analysis the concepts of flexibility and robustness appeared to be fitting to the existing method. Instead of taking big decisions with bigger consequences at once, the idea is that actions and decisions are cut-up into smaller pieces and finally the decision to implement is made based on economic costs of decisions and measures and the reduced effect of flooding. The more lead-time there is in
Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Jaffray, Jean-Yves
Non-expected utility theories, such as rank dependent utility (RDU) theory, have been proposed as alternative models to EU theory in decision making under risk. These models do not share the separability property of expected utility theory. This implies that, in a decision tree, if the reduction...... of compound lotteries assumption is made (so that preferences at each decision node reduce to RDU preferences among lotteries) and that preferences at different decision nodes are identical (same utility function and same weighting function), then the preferences are not dynamically consistent; in particular......, the sophisticated strategy, i.e., the strategy generated by a standard rolling back of the decision tree, is likely to be dominated w.r.t. stochastic dominance. Dynamic consistency of choices remains feasible, and the decision maker can avoid dominated choices, by adopting a non-consequentialist behavior, with his...
St John, C.
Scientific information about climate change and other human impacts on the environment are increasingly available and sought after (often in the form of probabilistic forecasts or technical information related to engineering solutions). However, it is increasingly apparent that there are barriers to the use of this information by decision makers - either from its lack of application altogether, its usability for people without scientific backgrounds, or its ability to inform sound decisions and widespread behavior change. While the argument has been made that an information deficit is to blame, we argue that there is also a motivation deficit contributing to a lack of understanding of information about climate change impacts and solutions. Utilizing insight from over thirty years of research in social and cognitive psychology, in addition to other social sciences, the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) seeks to understand how people make environmental decisions under conditions of uncertainty, and how these decisions can be improved. This presentation will focus specifically on recent research that has come forth since the 2009 publication of CRED's popular guide 'The Psychology of Climate Change Communication: A Guide for Scientists, Journalists, Educators, Political Aides, and the Interested Public.' Utilizing case studies from real world examples, this talk will explore how decision making can be improved through a better understanding of how people perceive and process uncertainty and risk. It will explore techniques such as choice architecture and 'nudging' behavior change, how social goals and group participation affect decision making, and how framing of environmental information influences mitigative behavior.
Robinson, Kelly F.; Fuller, Angela K.
Structured decision making (SDM) provides a framework for making sound decisions even when faced with uncertainty, and is a transparent, defensible, and replicable method used to understand complex problems. A hallmark of SDM is the explicit incorporation of values and science, which often includes participation from multiple stakeholders, helping to garner trust and ultimately result in a decision that is more likely to be implemented. The core steps in the SDM process are used to structure thinking about natural resources management choices, and include: (1) properly defining the problem and the decision context, (2) determining the objectives that help describe the aspirations of the decision maker, (3) devising management actions or alternatives that can achieve those objectives, (4) evaluating the outcomes or consequences of each alternative on each of the objectives, (5) evaluating trade-offs, and (6) implementing the decision. Participatory modeling for SDM includes engaging stakeholders in some or all of the steps of the SDM process listed above. In addition, participatory modeling often is crucial for creating qualitative and quantitative models of how the system works, providing data for these models, and eliciting expert opinion when data are unavailable. In these ways, SDM provides a framework for decision making in natural resources management that includes participation from stakeholder groups throughout the process, including the modeling phase.
Full Text Available A new combining criterion, the Multiplicative Proportional Deviative Influence (MPDI is presented for combining or aggregating multi-expert numerical judgments in Yes-or-No type ill-structured group decision making situations. This newly proposed criterion performs well in comparison with the widely used aggregation means: the Arithmetic Mean (AM, and Geometric Mean (GM, especially in better reflecting the degree of agreement between criteria levels or numerical experts’ judgments. The MPDI can be considered as another class of combining criteria that make effect of the degree of agreement among multiple numerical judgments. The MPDI is applicable in integrating several collaborative or synergistic decision making systems through combining final numerical decision outputs. A discussion and generalization of the proposed MPDI is discussed withnumerical example.
Medicine is incorporating genetic services into all avenues of health-care, ranging from the rarest to the most common diseases. Cognitive theories of decision-making still dominate professionals' understanding of patient decision-making about how to use genetic information and whether to have testing. I discovered a conceptual model of decision-making while carrying out a phenomenological-hermeneutic descriptive study of a convenience sample of 12 couples who were interviewed while deciding whether to undergo prenatal genetic testing. Thirty-two interviews were conducted with 12 men and 12 women separately. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and all data were analyzed using three levels of coding that were sorted into 30 categories and then abstracted into three emergent meta-themes that described men's and women's attempts to make sense and find meaning in how to best use prenatal genetic technology. Their descriptions of how they thought about, communicated, and coped with their decision were so detailed it was possible to discern nine different types of thinking they engaged in while deciding to accept or decline testing. They believed that decision-making is a process of working through your own personal style of thinking. This might include only one or any combination of the following types of thinking: analytical, ethical, moral, reflective, practical, hypothetical, judgmental, scary, and second sight, as described in detail by these 12 couples.
Rao, Justin M.
This dissertation consists of four separate but related papers. The overarching theme is how decision makers process information, form beliefs and make decisions. Chapter 1 examines how individuals' beliefs respond to objective information about their ranking on a neutral quality - a meaningless number on a card - or on a quality that has a significant self-image component - intelligence or beauty. For favorable news in the image tasks, subjects respected signal strength and update as "optimi...
Nieto Barthaburu, Augusto
Chapter I of this dissertation addresses the problem of optimally forecasting a binary variable based on a vector of covariates in the context of two different decision making environments. First we consider a single decision maker with given preferences, who has to choose between two actions on the basis of an unobserved binary outcome. Previous research has shown that traditional prediction methods, such as a logit regression estimated by maximum likelihood and combined with a cutoff, may p...
Celia Deane-Drummond's case for wisdom as an approach to ethical decision making and her doubts about case-oriented methodology are critiqued with reference to the SRT Project's Engineering Genesis study. Its approach is explored in practical decisions on various real life examples of genetic modification in crops and animals. It involved both intrinsic and consequential approaches, and identified key value positions behind different policies and stakeholders. The paper also clarifies the rel...
Sardi, Lauren; Livingston, Kathy
To study which healthcare professionals (HCPs) firstasked parents about their decision regarding circumcision; whether parents felt they were given enough information by their HCP; and what reasons parents cited for their decision. Bilingual questionnaires were administered to parents and expecting parents of boys (N = 60). Close-ended survey responses were analyzed through factor analysis to ascertain what types of beliefs parents used in their decision making, whether they felt they had enough information, and who first asked them about their decision. Nurses were most likely to be the first HCPs to ask parents about circumcision. Parental personal and cultural beliefs played an equal or more important role in influencing decision making than medical information received. However, some parents noted that there was a lack of access to accurate information regarding risks and benefits of male circumcision. Nurses continue to play a critical role in acquisition of knowledge surrounding male circumcision and serve as important liaisons between parents and the proxy consent process. Nurses, as well as other HCPs, should discuss circumcision early in pregnancy so parents have ample time to ask questions, gather information, and make an appropriate decision.
Full Text Available In an organization, decision making is anessential factor to achieve its goals. The decision-making process is a process of selecting the best alternative from many alternatives that systematically chosen as a way to resolve the problem. The decision is seen as a “choice between the alternatives” as well as a form of communication that fulfills the social expectations of the organization’s members. So the goal setting, onflow of information as well as individual’s values within the group affect the decisions made by the group itself. Then, the leadership-participation style in decision-making is the most important factor for creating the mutual understanding between both parties related to the decision. Dalam sebuah organisasi, pengambilan keputusan merupakan faktor penting untuk mencapai tujuannya. Proses pengambilan keputusan adalah proses pemilihan alternatif terbaik dari berbagai alternatif yang secara sistematis dipilih sebagai cara untuk menyelesaikan masalah. Keputusan ini dipandang sebagai “pilihan antara alternatif” serta bentuk komunikasi yang memenuhi harapan sosial dari anggota organisasi. Jadi penetapan tujuan, aliran informasi serta nilai-nilai individu dalam kelompok mempengaruhi keputusan yang dibuat oleh kelompok itu sendiri. Kemudiangaya kepemimpinan-partisipasi dalam pengambilan keputusan adalah faktor yang paling penting untuk menciptakan saling pengertian antara kedua belah pihak yang terkait dengan keputusan tersebut.
This paper assesses the decision making patterns in medical ethics: the formalized pattern of decision science, the meditative pattern of an art of judgement and lastly the still-to-be-elaborated pattern of kairology or sense of the right time. The ethical decision is to be thought out in the conditions of medical action while resorting to the philosophical concepts that shed light on the issue. And it is precisely where medicine and philosophy of human action meet that the Greek notion of kairos, or "propitious moment", evokes the critical point where decision has to do with what is vital. Reflection shows that this kairos can be thought out outside the sacrificial pattern (deciding comes down to killing a possibility) by understanding the opportune moment as a sign of ethical action, as the condition for the formation of the subject (making a decision) and finally as a new relationship to time, including in the context of medical urgency. Thus with an approach to clinical ethics centred on the relation to the individual, the focus is less on the probabilistic knowledge of the decidable than on the meaning of the decision, and the undecidable comes to be accepted as an infinite dimension going beyond the limits of our acts, which makes the contingency and the grandeur of human responsibility.
Ross-Gillespie, Adin; Kümmerli, Rolf
Microbes are intensely social organisms that routinely cooperate and coordinate their activities to express elaborate population level phenotypes. Such coordination requires a process of collective decision-making, in which individuals detect and collate information not only from their physical environment, but also from their social environment, in order to arrive at an appropriately calibrated response. Here, we present a conceptual overview of collective decision-making as it applies to all group-living organisms; we introduce key concepts and principles developed in the context of animal and human group decisions; and we discuss, with appropriate examples, the applicability of each of these concepts in microbial contexts. In particular, we discuss the roles of information pooling, control skew, speed vs. accuracy trade-offs, local feedbacks, quorum thresholds, conflicts of interest, and the reliability of social information. We conclude that collective decision-making in microbes shares many features with collective decision-making in higher taxa, and we call for greater integration between this fledgling field and other allied areas of research, including in the humanities and the physical sciences. PMID:24624121
Kristina M. Rabarison
Full Text Available Contemporary public health professionals must address the health needs of a diverse population with constrained budgets and shrinking funds. Economic evaluation contributes to evidence-based decision making by helping the public health community identify, measure, and compare activities with the necessary impact, scalability, and sustainability to optimize population health. Asking how do investments in public health strategies influence or offset the need for downstream spending on medical care and /or social services? is important when making decisions about resource allocation and scaling of interventions.
Gevarter, William B.
Models of human decision making are reviewed. Models which treat just the cognitive aspects of human behavior are included as well as models which include motivation. Both models which have associated computer programs, and those that do not, are considered. Since flow diagrams, that assist in constructing computer simulation of such models, were not generally available, such diagrams were constructed and are presented. The result provides a rich source of information, which can aid in construction of more realistic future simulations of human decision making.
The author proposes a new model for the assessment of decision-making capacity based on the principles of narrative medicine. The narrative method proposed by the author addresses the hidden power realtionships implicit in the current model of capacity assessment. Sample cases are reviewed using the traditional model in comparison with the narrative model. Narrative medicine provides an effective model for the assessment of decision-making capacity. Deficiencies in the traditional model capacity assessment can be effectively addressed using narrative strategies. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Kiker, Gregory A; Bridges, Todd S; Varghese, Arun; Seager, P Thomas P; Linkov, Igor
Decision making in environmental projects can be complex and seemingly intractable, principally because of the inherent trade-offs between sociopolitical, environmental, ecological, and economic factors. The selection of appropriate remedial and abatement strategies for contaminated sites, land use planning, and regulatory processes often involves multiple additional criteria such as the distribution of costs and benefits, environmental impacts for different populations, safety, ecological risk, or human values. Some of these criteria cannot be easily condensed into a monetary value, partly because environmental concerns often involve ethical and moral principles that may not be related to any economic use or value. Furthermore, even if it were possible to aggregate multiple criteria rankings into a common unit, this approach would not always be desirable because the ability to track conflicting stakeholder preferences may be lost in the process. Consequently, selecting from among many different alternatives often involves making trade-offs that fail to satisfy 1 or more stakeholder groups. Nevertheless, considerable research in the area of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has made available practical methods for applying scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex multicriteria problems. This paper presents a review of the available literature and provides recommendations for applying MCDA techniques in environmental projects. A generalized framework for decision analysis is proposed to highlight the fundamental ingredients for more structured and tractable environmental decision making.
Sax, Joanna K
Society is facing major challenges in climate change, health care and overall quality of life. Scientific advances to address these areas continue to grow, with overwhelming evidence that the application of highly tested forms of biotechnology is safe and effective. Despite scientific consensus in these areas, consumers appear reluctant to support their use. Research that helps to understand consumer decision-making and the public’s resistance to biotechnologies such as vaccines, fluoridated water programs and genetically engineered food, will provide great social value. This article is forward-thinking in that it suggests that important research in behavioral decision-making, specifically affect and ambiguity, can be used to help consumers make informed choices about major applications of biotechnology. This article highlights some of the most controversial examples: vaccinations, genetically engineered food, rbST treated dairy cows, fluoridated water, and embryonic stem cell research. In many of these areas, consumers perceive the risks as high, but the experts calculate the risks as low. Four major thematic approaches are proposed to create a roadmap for policymakers to consider for policy design and implementation in controversial areas of biotechnology. This article articulates future directions for studies that implement decision-making research to allow consumers to appropriately assign risk to their options and make informed decisions.
Angie Fagerlin, PhD, is a Professor and Chair in the Department of Population Health Sciences at the University of Utah and a Research Scientist at the Salt Lake City VA. She is the current President of the Society of Medical Decision Making. Dr. Fagerlin’s training is in experimental psychology, primarily in the areas of cognitive and social psychology. Her research focuses on testing methods for communicating medical data to patients and providers (e.g., the risks and benefits of cancer treatment) and the development and testing of decision support interventions. Her recent work is testing the impact of patient decision aids on patient-physician communication. Additionally, she is testing multiple methods for communicating about genetic testing and infectious diseases (e.g., the Zika virus, Ebola, influenza). Her research has been funded by NCI, NIH, VA, PCORI, and the European Union. If you are a person with a disability and require an assistive device, services or other reasonable accommodations to participate in this activity, please contact the Cancer Prevention Fellowship Program at (240) 276-5626 at least one week in advance of the lecture date to discuss your accommodation needs.
Bastons, Miquel; Armengou, Jaume
There is both individual and collective widespread concern in society about the impact of human activity and the effects of our decisions on the physical and social environment. This concern is included within the idea of sustainability. The meaning of the concept is still ambiguous and its practical effectiveness disputed. Like many other authors, this article uses as a starting point the definition proposed by the World Commission on Environment and Development (Our common future, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1987), considering it to be a proposal for changing the assessment of the effects of decisions, from at least two perspectives: (1) what effects we should consider and (2) how we should assess them. Based on this double perspective, sustainability is explored as a method for decision-making which both expands the assessment of the consequences, and also provides an objective criterion for such assessment. It will be argued that the idea of sustainability, seen from this perspective, brings to decision-making two qualities which had been partially lost: realism and impartiality. In turn, the criteria for realism and impartiality in decision-making can be used to identify the limitations of some partial approaches to sustainability, which suffer from insufficient realism (emotional altruism), insufficient impartiality (tactical altruism) or both phenomena at once (egoism). The article concludes by demonstrating how realism and impartiality provide the basis for a new form of sustainable decision-making (ethical sustainability), which is dependent on the development of two moral virtues, prudence and benevolence, and which brings practical effectiveness and ethical sense to the concept of sustainability.
To make fast and accurate behavioral choices, we need to integrate noisy sensory input, take prior knowledge into account, and adjust our decision criteria. It was shown previously that in two-alternative-forced-choice tasks, optimal decision making can be formalized in the framework of a sequential probability ratio test and is then equivalent to a diffusion model. However, this analogy hides a "chicken and egg" problem: to know how quickly we should integrate the sensory input and set the optimal decision threshold, the reliability of the sensory observations must be known in advance. Most of the time, we cannot know this reliability without first observing the decision outcome. We consider here a Bayesian decision model that simultaneously infers the probability of two different choices and at the same time estimates the reliability of the sensory information on which this choice is based. We show that this can be achieved within a single trial, based on the noisy responses of sensory spiking neurons. The resulting model is a non-linear diffusion to bound where the weight of the sensory inputs and the decision threshold are both dynamically changing over time. In difficult decision trials, early sensory inputs have a stronger impact on the decision, and the threshold collapses such that choices are made faster but with low accuracy. The reverse is true in easy trials: the sensory weight and the threshold increase over time, leading to slower decisions but at much higher accuracy. In contrast to standard diffusion models, adaptive sensory weights construct an accurate representation for the probability of each choice. This information can then be combined appropriately with other unreliable cues, such as priors. We show that this model can account for recent findings in a motion discrimination task, and can be implemented in a neural architecture using fast Hebbian learning.
Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, S.
This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making.
Full Text Available Two procedures were adopted to assess decision-making styles in the workplace: (a the administration of traditional standardized self-report questionnaires and (b open-ended questions about the way respondents would take decisions in a critical business case. Seventy-four adults were given two questionnaires: the Preference for Intuition and Deliberation, which assesses “deliberative” or “intuitive” decision style, and the Style of Learning and Thinking, which assesses thinking styles as “left” (namely, analytical-systematic or “right” (that is, global-intuitive. Participants were also presented with a business case that involved taking a decision. Responses to the business case were used to classify approaches to decision making as “analytical-systematic” or “global-intuitive.” Results showed that the questionnaires correlated consistently with scores from the business case, thus supporting the notion that the assessment of decision style through self-report questionnaires is reliable and valid.
Kathrin Rodríguez Llanes
Full Text Available Making decisions is complicated in a generalized way, the materials and humans resources of the entity we belong to depends on it, such as the fulfillment of its goals. But when the situations are complex, making decisions turns into a very difficult work, due to the great amount of aspects to consider when making the right choice. To make this efficiently the administration must to consult an important volume of information, which generally, is scattered and in any different formats. That’s why appears the need of developing software that crowd together all that information and be capable of, by using powerful search engines and process algorithms improve the good decisions making process. Considering previous explanation, a complete freeware developed product is proposed, this constitutes a generic and multi-platform solution, that using artificial intelligence techniques, specifically the cases based reasoning, gives the possibility to leaders of any institution or organism of making the right choice in any situation.With client-server architecture, this system is consumed from web as a service and it can be perfectly integrated with a management system or the geographic information system to facilitate the business process.
This book presents different methods for analyzing the body language (movement, position, use of personal space, silences, pauses and tone, the eyes, pupil dilation or constriction, smiles, body temperature and the like) for better understanding people’s needs and actions, including biometric data gathering and reading. Different studies described in this book indicate that sufficiently much data, information and knowledge can be gained by utilizing biometric technologies. This is the first, wide-ranging book that is devoted completely to the area of intelligent decision support systems, biometrics technologies and their integrations. This book is designated for scholars, practitioners and doctoral and master’s degree students in various areas and those who are interested in the latest biometric and intelligent decision making support problems and means for their resolutions, biometric and intelligent decision making support systems and the theory and practice of their integration and the opportunities fo...
Full Text Available ?160 http://www.orssa.org.za ORiON ISSN 0529-191-X c?2004 Decision-making: Theory and practice SM Turpin? MA Marais? Received: 24 June 2004; Revised: 15 September 2004; Accepted: 6 October 2004 Abstract This paper compares a number of theoretical...
Full Text Available Problems involving more than one criterion abound. To help in the solution of such problems, a field of management science and operations research known as multiple criteria decision making (MCDM has emerged to help solve such problems. In this paper we discuss some recent developments in this important field.
Lapenta, William; Irwin, Dan
SERVIR is a regional visualization and monitoring system for Mesoamerica that integrates satellite and other geospatial data for improved scientific knowledge and decision making by managers, researchers, students, and the general public. SERVIR addresses the nine societal benefit areas of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). This talk will provide an overview of products and services available through SERVIR.
Y. Deelstra (Ytsen); S.G. Nooteboom (Sibout); H.R. Kohlmann; J. van den Berg (Job); S. Innanen (Sally)
textabstractAbstract: Policy-related research in general, and Impact Assessments in particular, are too loosely connected to decision-making processes. The result is often sub-optimal or even undesirable, as one of two situations arises: 1) much research is done; however, those with the real
Nielen, MMA; Veltman, DJ; de Jong, R; Mulder, G; den Boer, JA
Background: Neuro-imaging studies in OCD report the orbitofrontal cortex to be functionally abnormal. As these areas are presumed to be involved in decision making, studying this behavior in OCD may provide further insight into the cognitive deficits accompanying the disorder. Methods: Performance
Albert, Dustin; Steinberg, Laurence
In this article, we review the most important findings to have emerged during the past 10 years in the study of judgment and decision making (JDM) in adolescence and look ahead to possible new directions in this burgeoning area of research. Three inter-related shifts in research emphasis are of particular importance and serve to organize this…
van Ravenzwaaij, Don; van der Maas, Han L. J.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan
In their influential "Psychological Review" article, Bogacz, Brown, Moehlis, Holmes, and Cohen (2006) discussed optimal decision making as accomplished by the drift diffusion model (DDM). The authors showed that neural inhibition models, such as the leaky competing accumulator model (LCA) and the feedforward inhibition model (FFI), can mimic the…
M. van der Ven (Myrthe)
markdownabstractThe _first aim_ of this thesis was to evaluate the added value of ultrasound in clinical decision making in patients with arthralgia, patients with psoriasis and monitoring RA patients. Our _second aim_ was to increase sensitivity of power Doppler ultrasound for MCP joints.
Ashford-Rowe, Kevin H.; Holt, Marnie
The "emerging educational institutional decision-making matrix" is developed to allow educational institutions to adopt a rigorous and consistent methodology of determining which of the myriad of emerging educational technologies will be the most compelling for the institution, particularly ensuring that it is the educational or pedagogical but…
Thomsen, Jesper Skovhus; Mosekilde, Erik; Sterman, John David
of this article is to show how the decision making behavior of real people in simulated corporate environments can lead to chaotic, hyperchaotic and higher-order hyperchaotic phenomena. Characteristics features of these complicated forms of behavior are analyzed with particular emphasis on an interesting form...
van Ravenzwaaij, D.; van der Maas, H.L.J.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.
In their influential Psychological Review article, Bogacz, Brown, Moehlis, Holmes, and Cohen (2006) discussed optimal decision making as accomplished by the drift diffusion model (DDM). The authors showed that neural inhibition models, such as the leaky competing accumulator model (LCA) and the
Barneva, Reneta P.; Brimkov, Valentin E.; Walters, Lisa M.
In all areas of human activity, decision-making based on data analysis is very important. As the availability of data grows, it becomes critical to educate not only traditional students but also those individuals who are now in the workforce, as many of them are expected to manage the complex data streams and to provide evidence and guidance for…
The study examined the effect of household decision making on the use of contraceptives and fertility behaviour of ever-married men in Nigeria. Men's Recode Dataset of 2013 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) dataset was used. A sample size of 8,981 ever married men aged 15-49 were analyzed using ...
Risk is a central feature of political decision making. Prospect theory, an empirically correct theory of choice under risk that deals precisely with this condition, therefore seems to have much to offer political science. Prospect theory's central finding is that individuals' attitude toward risk
Yurtseven, M. Kudret; Buchanan, Walter W.
Decision making in most universities is taught within the conventional OR/MS (Operations Research/Management Science) paradigm. This paradigm is known to be "hard" since it is consisted of mathematical tools, and normally suitable for solving structured problems. In complex situations the conventional OR/MS paradigm proves to be…
DENIG, P; HAAIJER-RUSKAMP, FM
In this review the therapeutic decision-making process of physicians is described. This process is divided into two steps: the generation of a limited set of possible options (the 'evoked set') and the selection from this evoked set of a treatment for a specific patient. Factors that are important
Birnbaum, Michael H.
During the last 25 years, prospect theory and its successor, cumulative prospect theory, replaced expected utility as the dominant descriptive theories of risky decision making. Although these models account for the original Allais paradoxes, 11 new paradoxes show where prospect theories lead to self-contradiction or systematic false predictions.…
This paper seeks to investigate the extent of influence of corporate (or organisational) responsibility on university students' career decision-making. It reports on a pilot study conducted at the University of Sydney which aims to: explore students' ethical, professional and social understanding regarding corporate responsibility; determine the…
Being able to make decisions is important for all students. Students need to have opportunities to choose from among alternative situations. Reading, as one curriculum area, provides a plethora of opportunities to choose and to select. The philosopher John Locke believed the following facets of an individual's development were in the ensuing order…
The study investigated the relationship of nature of science (NOS) instruction and students' decision-making (DM) related to a controversial socioscientific issue about genetically modified food. Participants were ninth-grade students in four intact sections (two regulars and two honors) in a public high school in the Midwest. All four groups were…
Lusby, Linda A.
This document examines the underlying rationale for the development of a global approach in consumer studies. The concept of consumer ethics is discussed and the consumer decision-making process is placed within an ecosystem perspective of the marketplace. The model developed introduces educators, marketers, and consumers to a more global…
Roč. 1, č. 2 (2005), s. 1-3 ISSN 1860-7470 Grant - others:Commission EU(XE) 110330-CP-1-2003-1-ES-MINERVA-M Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : software tools * education * decision making Subject RIV: JC - Computer Hardware ; Software
Notes that teachers make intentional decisions during interaction with children and reflect on what occurs in the environment. Focuses on teacher behavior along several continua: soft-hard, simple-complex, open-closed, intrusion-seclusion, and high versus low mobility. Illustrates theory with a transcribed observation. Adapts Jones and Prescott's…
Bock, Gregory L
Patients can be harmed by a religiously motivated surrogate decision maker whose decisions are contrary to the standard of care; therefore, surrogate decision making should be held to a high standard. Stewart Eskew and Christopher Meyers proposed a two-part rule for deciding which religiously based decisions to honor: (1) a secular reason condition and (2) a rationality condition. The second condition is based on a coherence theory of rationality, which they claim is accessible, generous, and culturally sensitive. In this article, I will propose strengthening the rationality condition by grounding it in a theory of intellectual virtue, which is both rigorous and culturally sensitive. Copyright 2014 The Journal of Clinical Ethics. All rights reserved.
Nørgaard, Maria Kümpel
. It is suggested that families achieve these competences in a socialisation process where social interaction, including knowledge sharing and knowledge management based on individual learning properties, is an important determinant. It is also suggested that in a family context these competences more precisely......Decision-making during food buying is a joint family activity involving both parents and children. Children manage to achieve a high degree of influence on many decisions, among other things, because they participate actively and help out doing various tasks. These decisions may turn out...... to be a choice of unhealthy food. Many decisions are made at the supermarket or other food shops, and food packaging is often used in the comparison of food products. Only rarely do families use nutritional information on food labels due to several problems in the understanding of these labels; this may result...
Hirsch, Oliver; Keller, Heidemarie; Krones, Tanja; Donner-Banzhoff, Norbert
Decision aids based on the philosophy of shared decision making are designed to help patients make informed choices among diagnostic or treatment options by delivering evidence-based information on options and outcomes. A patient decision aid can be regarded as a complex intervention because it consists of several presumably relevant components. Decision aids have rarely been field tested to assess patients' and physicians' attitudes towards them. It is also unclear what effect decision aids have on the adherence to chosen options. The electronic library of decision aids (arriba-lib) to be used within the clinical encounter has a modular structure and contains evidence-based decision aids for the following topics: cardiovascular prevention, atrial fibrillation, coronary heart disease, oral antidiabetics, conventional and intensified insulin therapy, and unipolar depression. We conducted an evaluation study in which 29 primary care physicians included 192 patients. After the consultation, patients filled in questionnaires and were interviewed via telephone two months later. We used generalised estimation equations to measure associations within patient variables and traditional crosstab analyses. Patients were highly satisfied with arriba-lib and the process of shared decision making. Two-thirds of patients reached in the telephone interview wanted to be counselled again with arriba-lib. There was a high congruence between preferred and perceived decision making. Of those patients reached in the telephone interview, 80.7% said that they implemented the decision, independent of gender and education. Elderly patients were more likely to say that they implemented the decision. Shared decision making with our multi-modular electronic library of decision aids (arriba-lib) was accepted by a high number of patients. It has positive associations to general aspects of decision making in patients. It can be used for patient groups with a wide range of individual
Individual consumers are subject to different influences on how they make decisions and what decision-making style they use. Consumer decision-making styles are a mental orientation that characterises a consumer's approach to making choices. The main purpose of the study is to explore the decision-making styles of ...
Schwikert, Shane R; Curran, Tim
Heuristics involve the ability to utilize memory to make quick judgments by exploiting fundamental cognitive abilities. In the current study we investigated the memory processes that contribute to the recognition heuristic and the fluency heuristic, which are both presumed to capitalize on the byproducts of memory to make quick decisions. In Experiment 1, we used a city-size comparison task while recording event-related potentials (ERPs) to investigate the potential contributions of familiarity and recollection to the 2 heuristics. ERPs were markedly different for recognition heuristic-based decisions and fluency heuristic-based decisions, suggesting a role for familiarity in the recognition heuristic and recollection in the fluency heuristic. In Experiment 2, we coupled the same city-size comparison task with measures of subjective preexperimental memory for each stimulus in the task. Although previous literature suggests the fluency heuristic relies on recognition speed alone, our results suggest differential contributions of recognition speed and recollected knowledge to these decisions, whereas the recognition heuristic relies on familiarity. Based on these results, we created a new theoretical framework that explains decisions attributed to both heuristics based on the underlying memory associated with the choice options. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.
Kahneman, Daniel; Lovallo, Dan; Sibony, Olivier
When an executive makes a big bet, he or she typically relies on the judgment of a team that has put together a proposal for a strategic course of action. After all, the team will have delved into the pros and cons much more deeply than the executive has time to do. The problem is, biases invariably creep into any team's reasoning-and often dangerously distort its thinking. A team that has fallen in love with its recommendation, for instance, may subconsciously dismiss evidence that contradicts its theories, give far too much weight to one piece of data, or make faulty comparisons to another business case. That's why, with important decisions, executives need to conduct a careful review not only of the content of recommendations but of the recommendation process. To that end, the authors-Kahneman, who won a Nobel Prize in economics for his work on cognitive biases; Lovallo of the University of Sydney; and Sibony of McKinsey-have put together a 12-question checklist intended to unearth and neutralize defects in teams' thinking. These questions help leaders examine whether a team has explored alternatives appropriately, gathered all the right information, and used well-grounded numbers to support its case. They also highlight considerations such as whether the team might be unduly influenced by self-interest, overconfidence, or attachment to past decisions. By using this practical tool, executives will build decision processes over time that reduce the effects of biases and upgrade the quality of decisions their organizations make. The payoffs can be significant: A recent McKinsey study of more than 1,000 business investments, for instance, showed that when companies worked to reduce the effects of bias, they raised their returns on investment by seven percentage points. Executives need to realize that the judgment of even highly experienced, superbly competent managers can be fallible. A disciplined decision-making process, not individual genius, is the key to good
Yukalov, V. I.; Sornette, D.
The quantum decision theory introduced recently is formulated as a quantum theory of measurement. It describes prospect states represented by complex vectors of a Hilbert space over a prospect lattice. The prospect operators, acting in this space, form an involutive bijective algebra. A measure is defined for quantifying the entanglement produced by the action of prospect operators. This measure characterizes the level of complexity of prospects involved in decision making. An explicit expression is found for the maximal entanglement produced by the operators of multimode prospects.
This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal ...
Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.
The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs
Current models of care emphasize the importance of including patients' values in the decision-making process. This is particularly important for decisions for which there are few data supporting a clear strategy or treatment choice. Constructing preferences for complex decisions requires that patients be able to consider multiple trade-offs between specific risks and benefits. Several marketing research techniques have been recently applied to heath care settings to facilitate this process. Most can be programmed to generate patients' preferences or priorities, which can then be used to improve patient-physician communication. In this article, we will describe some of the currently available approaches that have been successfully used in the health care setting. We provide case examples to illustrate the potential value of adopting each of these approaches in clinical practice.
Sisson, Gretchen; Ralph, Lauren; Gould, Heather; Foster, Diana Greene
Little is known about how adoption factors into pregnancy decision making, particularly when abortion is unavailable. We used data from the Turnaway Study, a longitudinal study of 956 women seeking abortion, including 231 women denied abortions owing to gestational limits. Through semiannual quantitative interviews, we assessed the frequency with which women denied abortion consider and choose adoption, and, among adoption participants, decision satisfaction. We compared differences in the demographic profiles of parenting and adoption participants using mixed effects regression models. We conducted in-depth interviews with 31 women who received or were denied wanted abortions, including 2 adoption participants, focused on understanding pregnancy decision making and feelings about their choice. Interviews were coded using inductive and deductive methods. Most women who received abortions were aware of but uninterested in adoption. A minority of women denied abortions (n = 231; 14%) were considering adoption at 1 week after denial. Of participants who gave birth (n = 161), most (91%) chose parenting. Parenting participants (n = 146) did not differ from adoption participants (n = 15) on measures of age, race, or poverty status, although adoption participants were somewhat less likely to be employed (20% vs. 43%; p = .1), and somewhat more likely to have completed high school (87% vs. 74%; p = .08). Although satisfaction with their decision was high among adoption participants, in-depth interviews revealed mixed emotions. Among women motivated to avoid parenthood, as evidenced by abortion seeking, adoption is considered or chosen infrequently. Political promotion of adoption as an alternative to abortion is likely not grounded in the reality of women's decision making. Copyright © 2016 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
This book is about using business intelligence as a management information system for supporting managerial decision making. It concentrates primarily on practical business issues and demonstrates how to apply data warehousing and data analytics to support business decision making. This book progresses through a logical sequence, starting with data model infrastructure, then data preparation, followed by data analysis, integration, knowledge discovery, and finally the actual use of discovered knowledge. All examples are based on the most recent achievements in business intelligence. Finally this book outlines an overview of a methodology that takes into account the complexity of developing applications in an integrated business intelligence environment. This book is written for managers, business consultants, and undergraduate and postgraduates students in business administration.
Lauesen, Linne Marie
Stakeholder management has for the last three decades been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models instead of the staticism that characterizes some models....... This paper offers an ‘Organic Stakeholder Model’ based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision making processes in businesses. The ‘Organic Stakeholder Model’ is based on empirical...... evidence from hybrid organizations as Publicly Owned Enterprises (POEs) mixed of private corporations and political administration. The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decisionmaking processes by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. Not only does the model apply...
Full Text Available Judgments and decisions under uncertainty are frequently linked to a prior sequential search for relevant information. In such cases, the subject has to decide when to stop the search for information. Evidence accumulation models from social and cognitive psychology assume an active and sequential information search until enough evidence has been accumulated to pass a decision threshold. In line with such theories, we conceptualize the evidence threshold as the ``desired level of confidence'' (DLC of a person. This model is tested against a fixed stopping rule (one-reason decision making and against the class of multi-attribute information integrating models. A series of experiments using an information board for horse race betting demonstrates an advantage of the proposed model by measuring the individual DLC of each subject and confirming its correctness in two separate stages. In addition to a better understanding of the stopping rule (within the narrow framework of simple heuristics, the results indicate that individual aspiration levels might be a relevant factor when modelling decision making by task analysis of statistical environments.
Most local agencies in Iowa currently make their pavement treatment decisions based on their limited experience due primarily to : lack of a systematic decision-making framework and a decision-aid tool. The lack of objective condition assessment data...
Brent, Brian O.; DeAngelis, Karen J.
One mark of an effective leader is effective decision making. A few analysts have developed "normative" decision-making models--models that describe how administrators should make decisions--while others have developed "descriptive" models--models that describe how administrators actually make decisions. In this article, the authors introduce a…
Chaudhry, Muhammad Shirjeel Riaz; Sidek, Mohmad Safhree
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis proposes a decision-making model based on PESTEL (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) analysis, AHP (Analytical Hierarchical Process), and game theory. The case study used to demonstrate the concept is a 2013 Malaysian crisis wherein foreign intruders occupied a village in Sabah state. The Malaysian government, ultimately, launched a military operation to clear the area. The focus of our st...
Matúš Grežo; Ľubor Pilárik
The aim of the research was to examine the impact of anger on moral reasoning and decision making. We were interested in whether anger leads to more punitive attributions and to greater willingness to help when one perceives immoral behavior. Participants (N=61) of the experimental design were randomly divided into two groups. The results show that anger may lead to more automatic information processing and also to an intuition based judgment. Angry participants chose harsher punishments and ...
Terra. Aqua. Cloudsat. Landsat. NASA runs and partners in many missions dedicated to monitoring the Earth, and the tools used in these missions continuously return data on everything from shifts in temperature to cloud formation to pollution levels over highways. The data are of great scientific value, but they also provide information that can play a critical role in decision making during times of crisis. Real-time developments in weather, wind, ocean currents, and numerous other conditions can have a significant impact on the way disasters, both natural and human-caused, unfold. "NASA has long recognized the need to make its data from real-time sources compatible and accessible for the purposes of decision making," says Michael Goodman, who was Disasters Program manager at NASA Headquarters from 2009-2012. "There are practical applications of NASA Earth science data, and we d like to accelerate the use of those applications." One of the main obstacles standing in the way of eminently practical data is the fact that the data from different missions are collected, formatted, and stored in different ways. Combining data sets in a way that makes them useful for decision makers has proven to be a difficult task. And while the need for a collaborative platform is widely recognized, very few have successfully made it work. Dave Jones, founder and CEO of StormCenter Communications Inc., which consults with decision makers to prepare for emergencies, says that "when I talk to public authorities, they say, If I had a nickel for every time someone told me they had a common operating platform, I d be rich. But one thing we ve seen over the years is that no one has been able to give end users the ability to ingest NASA data sets and merge them with their own."
Sautua, Santiago Ignacio
This dissertation consists of three chapters about decision making under uncertainty.Chapter 1: “Testing between Models of Smoking Risk Perceptions”Research in social and health psychology reports that smokers systematically underestimate the personal smoking risk. I build a model that captures potential determinants of smoking risk perceptions to investigate how smoking may cause an underestimation of the risk. The model is based on the premise that smokers have an incentive to be optimistic...
variant of PEST (Political, Economic, Social, and Technology) and is similar to SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis that...proposes a decision-making model based on PESTEL (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) analysis , AHP (Analytical...construct. The combined application of these tools—PESTEL analysis , AHP, and game theory—demonstrates how they mitigate each other’s weaknesses. The
In the siting process for a low-level waste disposal facility, there is a place for conflict, negotiation, arbitration, and public involvement. Contrary to popular belief, conflict is good. It signals pluralism and demonstrates a distribution of power. Conflict should not be eliminated because it is a dynamic method of decision-making. Conflict causes negotiation, which leads to compromise. Conflict is the product of the legitimacy of dissent
A survey is given of the various influences on the process of making decisions at the governmental level in the Netherlands on nuclear power, covering the last 20 years. The conflicting statements in memoranda, the role of the industry, the lack of public information and the coloured information generated by different ministries as an answer to extra-parliamentary opposition to nuclear power, are in turn put into focus
environment that includes a combination of regular warfare, irregular warfare, terrorist activity and criminality.” This is a descriptive account of what...under instrument flight rules ( IFR ) (Bellenkes et al., 1997; Katoh, 1997). Of note, eye-tracking technology also has been applied to investigate...potential to gain additional understanding of factors affecting the quality of military decision-making exists through these technologies. The potential
Rao, Ravipudi Venkata
Manufacturing is the backbone of any industrialized nation. Recent worldwide advances in manufacturing technologies have brought about a metamorphism in the industry. Fast-changing technologies on the product front have created a need for an equally fast response from manufacturing industries. To meet these challenges, manufacturing industries have to select appropriate manufacturing strategies, product designs, manufacturing processes, work piece and tool materials, and machinery and equipment. The selection decisions are complex as decision making is more challenging today. Decision makers i
Barfod, Michael Bruhn
The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... depends to a high degree on subjective preferences stated by the decision-makers as the methodology deals with impacts (or criteria) that are difficult to quantify or assign with a monetary value. As a result of this an examination process is proposed that can guide the decision-makers through...... and rail to bike transport projects. Two major concerns have been to propose an examination process that can be used in situations where complex decision problems need to be addressed by experts as well as non-experts in decision making, and to identify appropriate assessment techniques to be used...
Walker, Paul; Lovat, Terry
This paper is predicated on the understanding that clinical encounters between clinicians and patients should be seen primarily as inter-relations among persons and, as such, are necessarily moral encounters. It aims to relocate the discussion to be had in challenging medical decision-making situations, including, for example, as the end of life comes into view, onto a more robust moral philosophical footing than is currently commonplace. In our contemporary era, those making moral decisions must be cognizant of the existence of perspectives other than their own, and be attuned to the demands of inter-subjectivity. Applicable to clinical practice, we propose and justify a Habermasian approach as one useful means of achieving what can be described as dialogic consensus. The Habermasian approach builds around, first, his discourse theory of morality as universalizable to all and, second, communicative action as a cooperative search for truth. It is a concrete way to ground the discourse which must be held in complex medical decision-making situations, in its actual reality. Considerations about the theoretical underpinnings of the application of dialogic consensus to clinical practice, and potential difficulties, are explored.
Kaczmarczyk, Joseph; Davidson, Richard; Bryden, Daniele; Haselden, Stephen; Vivekananda-Schmidt, Pirashanthie
In Serious Games (SGs), educational content is integrated into a game so that learning is intrinsic to play, thereby motivating players and improving engagement. SGs enable learning by developing situated understanding in users and by enabling players to practise safe clinical decision making; however, the use of SGs in medical education is not well established. We aimed to design a game-based resource to teach clinical decision making to medical students, and to assess user perceptions of educational value, usability and the role for SGs in undergraduate training. An SG focusing on the acute management of tachyarrhythmias was developed. Third- and fourth-year medical students at the medical school were invited to use and evaluate the game using questionnaires and focus groups. We invited 479 students, and 281 accessed the game. Only 47 students completed the questionnaire and 31 students participated in the focus groups. The data suggest that SGs: (1) can allow students to rehearse taking responsibility for decision making; (2) are fun and motivational; (3) have a role in revising and consolidating knowledge; and (4) could be formative assessment tools. Serious Games enable learning by developing situated understanding in users SGs could be employed as adjuvant learning resources to develop students' skills and knowledge. Further empirical research is required to assess the added value of games in medical education. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Long, Arwen B; Kuhn, Cynthia M; Platt, Michael L
Some people love taking risks, while others avoid gambles at all costs. The neural mechanisms underlying individual variation in preference for risky or certain outcomes, however, remain poorly understood. Although behavioral pathologies associated with compulsive gambling, addiction and other psychiatric disorders implicate deficient serotonin signaling in pathological decision making, there is little experimental evidence demonstrating a link between serotonin and risky decision making, in part due to the lack of a good animal model. We used dietary rapid tryptophan depletion (RTD) to acutely lower brain serotonin in three macaques performing a simple gambling task for fluid rewards. To confirm the efficacy of RTD experiments, we measured total plasma tryptophan using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with electrochemical detection. Reducing brain serotonin synthesis decreased preference for the safe option in a gambling task. Moreover, lowering brain serotonin function significantly decreased the premium required for monkeys to switch their preference to the risky option, suggesting that diminished serotonin signaling enhances the relative subjective value of the risky option. These results implicate serotonin in risk-sensitive decision making and, further, suggest pharmacological therapies for treating pathological risk preferences in disorders such as problem gambling and addiction.
The Institute of Applied Reearch (IAR) at California Sate University, San Bernadino (CSUSB) is pleased to present its report on the 2009 Pilot Study: Trasnportation Decision-Making in the Inland Empire (Riverside and San Bernandino Counties). This st...
Flaming, Susan C.
The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into
Temel, Veysel; Birol, Sefa Sahan; Nas, Kazim; Akpinar, Selahattin; Tekin, Murat
The aim of the study was to examine the self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles of the teachers in various branches of Çat town of Erzurum Province, Turkey in terms of some variables in 2014-2015 year. A total of 153 teachers (84 females and 69 males) (age (? = 1.6536 ± 0.72837) from different departments participated in the…
Perez, Maya; Gati, Itamar
We tested the associations among the career decision-making difficulties, the career decision status, and either (a) the career decision-making profiles of 575 young adults, or (b) the coping strategies of 379 young adults. As hypothesized, a more advanced decision status was negatively associated with both career decision-making difficulties…
Higgins, Paul [American Meteorological Society, Washington, DC (United States)
Climate Information Needs for Financial Decision Making (Final Report) This Department of Energy workshop award (grant #DE-SC0008480) provided primary support for the American Meteorological Society’s study on climate information needs for financial decision making. The goal of this study was to help advance societal decision making by examining the implications of climate variability and change on near-term financial investments. We explored four key topics: 1) the conditions and criteria that influence returns on investment of major financial decisions, 2) the climate sensitivity of financial decisions, 3) climate information needs of financial decision makers, and 4) potential new mechanisms to promote collaboration between scientists and financial decision makers. Better understanding of these four topics will help scientists provide the most useful information and enable financial decision makers to use scientific information most effectively. As a result, this study will enable leaders in business and government to make well-informed choices that help maximize long-term economic success and social wellbeing in the United States The outcomes of the study include a workshop, which brought together leaders from the scientific and financial decision making communities, a publication of the study report, and a public briefing of the results to the policy community. In addition, we will present the results to the scientific community at the AMS Annual Meeting in February, 2014. The study results were covered well by the media including Bloomberg News and E&E News. Upon request, we also briefed the Office of Science Technology Policy (OSTP) and the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) on the outcomes. We presented the results to the policy community through a public briefing in December on Capitol Hill. The full report is publicly available at www.ametsoc.org/cin. Summary of Key Findings The United States invests roughly $1.5 trillion U.S. dollars (USD) in
During the last thirty years different methods have been proposed in order to manage and resolve ethical quandaries, specially in the clinical setting. Some of these methodologies are based on the principles of Decision-making theory. Others looked to other philosophical traditions, like Principlism, Hermeneutics, Narrativism, Casuistry, Pragmatism, etc. This paper defends the view that deliberation is the cornerstone of any adequate methodology. This is due to the fact that moral decisions must take into account not only principles and ideas, but also emotions, values and beliefs. Deliberation is the process in which everyone concerned by the decision is considered a valid moral agent, obliged to give reasons for their own points of view, and to listen to the reasons of others. The goal of this process is not the reaching of a consensus but the enrichment of one's own point of view with that of the others, increasing in this way the maturity of one's own decision, in order to make it more wise or prudent. In many cases the members of a group of deliberation will differ in the final solution of the case, but the confrontation of their reasons will modify the perception of the problem of everyone. This is the profit of the process. Our moral decisions cannot be completely rational, due to the fact that they are influenced by feelings, values, beliefs, etc., but they must be reasonable, that is, wise and prudent. Deliberation is the main procedure to reach this goal. It obliges us to take others into account, respecting their different beliefs and values and prompting them to give reasons for their own points of view. This method has been traditional in Western clinical medicine all over its history, and it should be also the main procedure for clinical ethics.
Youssef, Farid F; Dookeeram, Karine; Basdeo, Vasant; Francis, Emmanuel; Doman, Mekaeel; Mamed, Danielle; Maloo, Stefan; Degannes, Joel; Dobo, Linda; Ditshotlo, Phatsimo; Legall, George
While early studies of moral decision making highlighted the role of rational, conscious executive processes involving frontal lobe activation more recent work has suggested that emotions and gut reactions have a key part to play in moral reasoning. Given that stress can activate many of the same brain regions that are important for and connected to brain centres involved in emotional processing we sought to evaluate if stress could influence moral decision making. Sixty-five undergraduate volunteers were randomly assigned to control (n=33) and experimental groups (n=32). The latter underwent the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST) and induction of stress was assessed by measurement of salivary cortisol levels. Subjects were then required to provide a response to thirty moral dilemmas via a computer interface that recorded both their decision and reaction time. Three types of dilemmas were used: non-moral, impersonal moral and personal moral. Using a binary logistic model there were no significant predicators of utilitarian response in non-moral and impersonal moral dilemmas. However the stressed group and females were found to predict utilitarian responses to personal moral dilemmas. When comparing percentage utilitarian responses there were no significant differences noted for the non-moral and impersonal moral dilemmas but the stressed group showed significantly less utilitarian responses compared to control subjects. The stress response was significantly negatively correlated with utilitarian responses. Females also showed significantly less utilitarian responses than males. We conclude that activation of the stress response predisposed participants to less utilitarian responses when faced with high conflict personal moral dilemmas and suggest that this offers further support for dual process theory of moral judgment. We also conclude that females tend to make less utilitarian personal moral decisions compared to males, providing further evidence that there are
Wolfe, A.K.; Vogt, D.P.; Hwang, Ho-Ling [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)] [and others
Executive Order 12898, signed on February 11, 1994, broadly states that federal activities, programs, and policies should not produce disproportionately high and adverse impacts on minority and low-income populations. Moreover, the Order indicates that these populations should not be denied the benefits of, or excluded from participation in, these activities, programs, and policies. Because a presidential memorandum accompanying the order said that National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents should begin to address environmental justice immediately, much attention has been paid to assessment-related issues. Also important, a topic that appears to have received relatively little attention, is how decision makers should be expected to use information about environmental justice in their decision making. This paper discusses issues surrounding the use of environmental justice information in the decision-making process by focusing on the following five main topics: (1) the importance, or weight, attached to environmental justice within larger decision-making contexts; (2) the potential tension between localized environmental justice issues and regional or national issues and needs; (3) the use of environmental justice information to develop (perhaps in concert with affected minority and low-income communities) appropriate mitigation strategies, or to establish conditions under which activities, programs, and policies may be accepted locally; (4) the general implications of shifting the distribution of broadly defined risks, costs, and benefits among different population groups; and (5) the implications of implementing environmental justice on an individual, ad hoc basis rather than within a larger environmental justice framework. This paper raises the issues and discusses the implications of alternative approaches to them.
Barfoed, Benedicte Marie Lind
Objectives We aim to present new knowledge about different perspectives of health care professionals’ risk perceptions and clinical decision making. Furthermore, we intend to discuss differences between professional and personal risk perceptions and the impact on decisions in terms of both short...... and long-term outcomes. Background Insight into healthcare professionals’ perception of risk is a cornerstone for understanding their strategies for practising preventive care. The way people perceive risk can be seen as part of a general personality trait influenced by a mixture of individual...... considerations and the specific context. Most research has been focused on understanding of the concepts of risk. However healthcare professionals’ risk perception and personal attitudes also affect their clinical decision-making and risk communication. The differences between health care professionals’ personal...
Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain
Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise.
Goodman, Lynne S.
'Money makes the world go round', as the song says. It definitely influences decommissioning decision-making and financial assurance for future decommissioning. This paper will address two money-related decommissioning topics. The first is the evaluation of whether to continue or to halt decommissioning activities at Fermi 1. The second is maintaining adequacy of financial assurance for future decommissioning of operating plants. Decommissioning costs considerable money and costs are often higher than originally estimated. If costs increase significantly and decommissioning is not well funded, decommissioning activities may be deferred. Several decommissioning projects have been deferred when decision-makers determined future spending is preferable than current spending, or when costs have risen significantly. Decommissioning activity timing is being reevaluated for the Fermi 1 project. Assumptions for waste cost-escalation significantly impact the decision being made this year on the Fermi 1 decommissioning project. They also have a major impact on the estimated costs for decommissioning currently operating plants. Adequately funding full decommissioning during plant operation will ensure that the users who receive the benefit pay the full price of the nuclear-generated electricity. Funding throughout operation also will better ensure that money is available following shutdown to allow decommissioning to be conducted without need for additional funds
Oud, Bastiaan; Krajbich, Ian; Miller, Kevin; Cheong, Jin Hyun; Botvinick, Matthew; Fehr, Ernst
Time is an extremely valuable resource but little is known about the efficiency of time allocation in decision-making. Empirical evidence suggests that in many ecologically relevant situations, decision difficulty and the relative reward from making a correct choice, compared to an incorrect one, are inversely linked, implying that it is optimal to use relatively less time for difficult choice problems. This applies, in particular, to value-based choices, in which the relative reward from choosing the higher valued item shrinks as the values of the other options get closer to the best option and are thus more difficult to discriminate. Here, we experimentally show that people behave sub-optimally in such contexts. They do not respond to incentives that favour the allocation of time to choice problems in which the relative reward for choosing the best option is high; instead they spend too much time on problems in which the reward difference between the options is low. We demonstrate this by showing that it is possible to improve subjects' time allocation with a simple intervention that cuts them off when their decisions take too long. Thus, we provide a novel form of evidence that organisms systematically spend their valuable time in an inefficient way, and simultaneously offer a potential solution to the problem. © 2016 The Author(s).
The paper discusses the trend in paradigms within decision research, drifting from concepts of decision making in terms of normative models of 'rational decision making, through behavioral models in terms of 'biases' - deviations from rational models, toward models of actual decision making...... behavior, such as the SRK concept, naturalistic decision making, and dynamic decision making.In this evolution, concepts such as decision making, management, and behavioral control merge and a concurrent change in concepts underlying design of systems aiming at control of behavior is visible, from...
Gregory, M M
Based on the preceding factors, a profile can be made for each light. The profile should include the following information: product literature with detailed information about the light, the average score from each of the six categories on the questionnaire, a summary of positive and negative comments from the questionnaire (recurring comments can identify significant factors), recommendations from other hospitals using the light, warranty and service information and any pertinent information about the vendor and manufacturer, information or comments from the clinical engineer, the purchasing agent, and the architect/engineer, and information about possible purchase agreements. Once the profiles of the lights are finished, present them to the OR committee or group charged with making the final decision. The information will enable the group to compare the lights and will serve as a basis for either the final purchase or a detailed bid specification. If cost is a major factor in the decision, the evaluation results can be used to justify purchasing lights that are more expensive but that the users believe are clearly superior. This constitutes the "professional justification" that some government institutions require to circumvent regulations that require buying the low-bid product. Although the result of this selection process is clearly a subjective decision, it is an informed subjective decision. Once the lights are installed, the staff members' satisfaction with the lights will not be based on objective criteria but on the same subjective opinions that were used to justify the selection.
The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-mak...
Behavior analysis has much to offer the study of phenomena in the area of judgement and decision making. We review several research areas that should continue to profit from a behavior-analytic approach, including the relative merit of contingency-based and rule-governed instruction of solving algebra and analogy problems, and the role of conditioned reinforcement and the inter-trial interval in a type of Prisoner's Dilemma Game. We focus on two additional areas: (1) the study of base-rate neglect, a notorious reasoning fallacy and (2) the study of the sunk-cost effect, which characterizes ill-conceived investment decisions. In each of these two cases we review studies with humans and pigeons as subjects.
Harren, Vincent A.
Presents a model of career decision-making which includes: a delineation of the internal psychological process of decision-making; identification of important developmental and personality characteristics of the decision maker; and specification of immediate or anticipated environmental factors influencing decision-making. (Author)
Andersen, Torben Juul; Bresser, Rudi K. F.; Hallin, Carina Antonia
Effective strategy-making in turbulent industries needs current insights that can inform ongoing decisions around adaptive strategic moves. Frontline employees involved in the daily business transactions are the first to see the subtle changes not otherwise observed by top managers. Top management...... with dominant logics anchored in previous business contexts usually receive updated information from performance reports for prior periods. All the while, we discern a human inclination linked to the position of power where managers subconsciously discard updated information from frontline employees. We present...
Hebert, James R.; Allison, David B.; Archer, Edward; Lavie, Carl J.; Blair, Steven N.
Rising and epidemic rates of obesity in many parts of the world are leading to increased suffering and economic stress from diverting health care resources to treating a variety of serious, but preventable, chronic diseases etiologically linked to obesity, particularly type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases. Despite decades of research into the causes of the obesity pandemic, we seem to be no nearer to a solution now than when the rise in body weights was first chronicled decades ago. The case is made that impediments to a clear understanding of the nature of the problem occur at many levels. These obstacles begin with defining obesity and include lax application of scientific standards of review, tenuous assumption making, flawed measurement and other methods, constrained discourse limiting examination of alternative explanations of cause, and policies that determine funding priorities. These issues constrain creativity and stifle expansive thinking that could otherwise advance the field in preventing and treating obesity and its complications. Suggestions are made to create a climate of open exchange of ideas and redirection of policies that can remove the barriers that prevent us from making material progress in solving a pressing major public health problem of the early 21st century. PMID:23726399
Søndergaard, Erik Stefan; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema
Global Product Development (GPD), outsourcing and offshoring of product development is a widespread phenomenon on today’s global economy, and consequently most engineering manufacturing companies will have to make decisions regarding how to organise their product development activities globally....... This paper investigates decision making in the GPD context, partly by summarizing existing literatures and studies in the field, and partly through a case study of decision making processes in a global engineering company. Through interviews a range of GPD decisions were mapped and analysed in order...... to investigate how decisions are made and which information decisions are based on. The study found that decision making is not always structured, and that prioritised decision making is more dominant than planned decision making. The findings set the stage for further analysis of decision making in GPD...
Kurth, Margaret; Fox-Lent, Cate; Golan, Maureen; Linkov, Igor
Municipalities and cities face myriad challenges with regard to planning; decisions that will have long-standing consequences need to be made in the context of pressing present concerns, constrained budgets, and uncertainty about the future under climate changes. Compounding the challenge may be a lack of clear signals from the state and federal leadership on investment priorities. This paper contends that existing strategies from decision science can prove useful for local governments as they seek actions that are robust despite uncertain futures and broadly beneficial across sectors and time horizons. An illustrative example of decision making with scenario analysis demonstrates how a city can prioritize funding and elevate the baseline functionality of its infrastructure and the well-being of its residents, regardless of when and how climate hazards occur. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:194-197. Published 2017. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2017. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
Bestaoui Sebbane, Yasmina
This book provides an introduction to the emerging field of planning and decision making for aerial robots. An aerial robot is the ultimate form of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, an aircraft endowed with built-in intelligence, requiring no direct human control and able to perform a specific task. It must be able to fly within a partially structured environment, to react and adapt to changing environmental conditions and to accommodate for the uncertainty that exists in the physical world. An aerial robot can be termed as a physical agent that exists and flies in the real 3D world, can sense its environment and act on it to achieve specific goals. So throughout this book, an aerial robot will also be termed as an agent. Fundamental problems in aerial robotics include the tasks of spatial motion, spatial sensing and spatial reasoning. Reasoning in complex environments represents a difficult problem. The issues specific to spatial reasoning are planning and decision making. Planning deals with the trajectory algori...
Lu, Jiade J.; Brady, Luther W.
Decision Making in Radiation Oncology is a reference book designed to enable radiation oncologists, including those in training, to make diagnostic and treatment decisions effectively and efficiently. The orientation of this groundbreaking publication is entirely practical, in that the focus is on issues relating to cancer management. The design has been carefully chosen based on the belief that ''a picture is worth a thousand words'': Knowledge is conveyed through an illustrative approach using algorithms, schemas, graphics, and tables. Text is kept to a minimum, reducing the effort involved in reading while enhancing understanding. Detailed guidelines are provided for multidisciplinary cancer management as well as for radiation therapy techniques. In addition to the attention-riveting algorithms for diagnosis and treatment, strategies for the management of disease at individual stages are detailed for all the commonly diagnosed malignancies. Detailed attention is given to the core evidence that has shaped the current treatment standards and advanced radiation therapy techniques. Clinical trials that have yielded ''gold standard'' treatment and their results are documented in the schemas. Moreover, radiation techniques, including treatment planning and delivery, are also presented in an illustrative way. (orig.)
Harder, Thomas; Takla, Anja; Rehfuess, Eva; Sánchez-Vivar, Alex; Matysiak-Klose, Dorothea; Eckmanns, Tim; Krause, Gérard; de Carvalho Gomes, Helena; Jansen, Andreas; Ellis, Simon; Forland, Frode; James, Roberta; Meerpohl, Joerg J.; Morgan, Antony; Schünemann, Holger; Zuiderent-Jerak, Teun; Wichmann, Ole
The Project on a Framework for Rating Evidence in Public Health (PRECEPT) was initiated and is being funded by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) to define a methodology for evaluating and grading evidence and strength of recommendations in the field of public health, with
Nibbelink, Christine W; Brewer, Barbara B
To identify and summarise factors and processes related to registered nurses' patient care decision-making in medical-surgical environments. A secondary goal of this literature review was to determine whether medical-surgical decision-making literature included factors that appeared to be similar to concepts and factors in naturalistic decision making (NDM). Decision-making in acute care nursing requires an evaluation of many complex factors. While decision-making research in acute care nursing is prevalent, errors in decision-making continue to lead to poor patient outcomes. Naturalistic decision making may provide a framework for further exploring decision-making in acute care nursing practice. A better understanding of the literature is needed to guide future research to more effectively support acute care nurse decision-making. PubMed and CINAHL databases were searched, and research meeting criteria was included. Data were identified from all included articles, and themes were developed based on these data. Key findings in this review include nursing experience and associated factors; organisation and unit culture influences on decision-making; education; understanding patient status; situation awareness; and autonomy. Acute care nurses employ a variety of decision-making factors and processes and informally identify experienced nurses to be important resources for decision-making. Incorporation of evidence into acute care nursing practice continues to be a struggle for acute care nurses. This review indicates that naturalistic decision making may be applicable to decision-making nursing research. Experienced nurses bring a broad range of previous patient encounters to their practice influencing their intuitive, unconscious processes which facilitates decision-making. Using naturalistic decision making as a conceptual framework to guide research may help with understanding how to better support less experienced nurses' decision-making for enhanced patient
There is a tendency for physicians to approach ethical problems in a manner similar to that in which they approach medical problems. Instead of disease categories (such as congestive heart failure or diarrhea), the physician substitutes moral quandaries (such as euthanasia or abortion). The goal is to learn what the "right" rules are for this particular problem at this particular moment. Although this method has important practical and instructive value, it can produce an empirical attitude toward ethics akin to that found in students who strive to learn medicine solely by algorithms. Using theoretical models as a center for discussion, this article has attempted to approach medical ethics as a decision-making process derived from the physician-patient relationship model in use. What is the type of physician-patient relationship that forms the soundest base for making ethical decisions? It must be realized that the contractual relationship cannot be ignored, for in our consumer-oriented society it will surely remain as a protection for the patient against the incompetent or immoral physician. It should not become the sole guide of physician behavior, however, lest we be satisfied with mediocre behavior as the maximal standard. Likewise, although technical competence is required for one to make the right and good decision, it is insufficient alone as a guide for moral behavior. Given the medically correct facts, a multitude of responses are available which necessitate a moral choice. Physicians need a guiding principle that goes beyond any aesthetic code of behavior, or protection of self-interest, and which enables them to deal with all the unexpected ethical questions faced in providing care to patients. Moral principles such as truth-telling, promise-keeping, and protecting the patient when he is vulnerable, help the physician to act in a moral manner, but lack the encompassing nature of the covenantal promise. The covenantal model includes a donative element
This paper considers the influence of a range of factors within and around the firm on business decision making relating to the environment. Within the firm, it emphasises the importance of governance structures, corporate cultures and organisational capacities. Around the firm, it stresses the importance of the incentives, imperatives and informational pressures that emerge from governments, markets and civil society. It is argued that change is most likely where the various external pressures resonate with each other, and where they impact upon firms with receptive corporate cultures and adequate organisational capacities. It is also argued that these preconditions for change are often absent, which makes change more difficult or more expensive. It is further argued that even when these preconditions are in place, they are likely to engender only to incremental change. As prolonged periods of incremental change must eventually encounter diminishing returns, the key challenge for those seeking to promote significant changes in business behaviour is to put in place the full range of conditions needed to allow companies to make them. This can mean focusing not only on the operational but also on the strategic activities of businesses, and not only on individual businesses but also on the broader systems and networks within which they operate. (author)
ILO pub. Working paper on decision making processes in multinational enterprises - gives definition, type and classification of decision making in large enterprises; outlines the centralization decentralization theory and the iterative process; notes research needs. Bibliography.
The findings, therefore, suggest that authoritative parenting, vigilant decision making and frequent engagement in healthy lifestyle behaviours were the most prevalent behaviours amongst male and female learners. Keywords: Adolescence, decision making, gender, healthy lifestyle behaviours, learners, parenting ...
Bausys, Romualdas; Zavadskas, Edmundas Kazimieras; Kaklauskas, Artūras
The paper presents multicriteria decision making method with single value neutrosophic sets (SVNS), namely COPRAS-SVNS. The complex proportional assessment method (COPRAS) has shown accurate results for the solution of various multicriteria decision making problems in the engineering field.
Romualdas BAUSYS; Edmundas Kazimieras ZAVADSKAS; Artūras KAKLAUSKAS
The paper presents multicriteria decision making method with single value neutrosophic sets (SVNS), namely COPRAS-SVNS. The complex proportional assessment method (COPRAS) has shown accurate results for the solution of various multicriteria decision making problems in the engineering field.
Powell, Dennis R. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); LeClaire, Rene J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
The Severe Weather Planning Simulator (SWPS), developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), is a computer-based learning environment of conditions and response options to potential severe weather conditions at the Macondo Well (MC252) during response and recovery operations. SWPS is a computer aid designed to expose users to uncertain hurricane conditions and allow them to make decisions at a high level about ship deployment and operations and be exposed to potential consequences in personnel and equipment safety and pollution prevention efforts. The goal is not to predict the future but rather to expose decision makers to potential scenarios and the tradeoffs that will need to be considered when making decisions about personnel and ship deployment. Although this work is focused solely on Macondo response operations, it is readily extensible to other recovery operations involving a range of conditions, geographic locations and exploration assets. Documented herein is a brief summary of the results of an initial trial of SWPS with four employees of BP involved with Macondo response operations. SWPS uses system level models to represent ship operations including movements to port under storm threat and the return to operations, ship fragility, personnel movements and vulnerability in storm conditions, pollution prevention results, a hurricane scenario generation model and a decision model. The models are wrapped in an interface enabling users to observe conditions, make decisions on ship and personnel movements and evaluate the results of their actions. A two hour workshop was conducted on August 18 at the BP Westlake offices in Houston to assess a preliminary version of the simulator. The workshop goal was to assess the potential utility of SWPS, evaluate its interface, and function and gather suggestions for further development. Four BP employees - Ed Bracken, Hugh Banon, Earnest Bush, and Troy Endicott - were introduced to the simulator and asked to run
MacPhail-Wilcox, Bettye; Bryant, H. David
This article provides an overview of decision-making literature, describes individual and organizational decision stages, and reviews selected idiographic influences on decision-making. Also presented is a model for predicting and explaining variations in decision outcomes. These outcomes include affective, cognitive, and behavioral conditions.…
Lee, Victoria K.; Harris, Lasana T.
Social decision-making is often complex, requiring the decision-maker to make inferences of others' mental states in addition to engaging traditional decision-making processes like valuation and reward processing. A growing body of research in neuroeconomics has examined decision-making involving social and non-social stimuli to explore activity in brain regions such as the striatum and prefrontal cortex, largely ignoring the power of the social context. Perhaps more complex processes may inf...
Osamor, Pauline E.; Grady, Christine
Background Respect for autonomy is a key principle in bioethics. However, respecting autonomy in practice is complex because most people define themselves and make decisions influenced by a complex network of social relationships. The extent to which individual autonomy operates for each partner within the context of decision-making within marital or similar relationships is largely unexplored. This paper explores issues related to decision-making by couples (couples’ joint decision-making) f...
The objective of this study was to propose a decision making approach and tools (software packages) to solve the multi-criteria decision making problems arising in the food engineering. The proposed decision making approach is based on a simultaneous utilization for a given set of Pareto-optimal solutions the two following decision making methods: 1) well-known Analytic Hierarchy Process method and 2) Tabular Method. The using of Tabular Method allows utilizing the AHP method in a...
Full Text Available Abstract Background Suboptimal uptake of anticoagulation for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation has persisted for over 20 years, despite high-level evidence demonstrating its effectiveness in reducing the risk of fatal and disabling stroke. Methods The STOP STROKE in AF study is a national, cluster randomised controlled trial designed to improve the uptake of anticoagulation in primary care. General practitioners from around Australia enrolling in this ‘distance education’ program are mailed written educational materials, followed by an academic detailing session delivered via telephone by a medical peer, during which participants discuss patient de-identified cases. General practitioners are then randomised to receive written specialist feedback about the patient de-identified cases either before or after completing a three-month posttest audit. Specialist feedback is designed to provide participants with support and confidence to prescribe anticoagulation. The primary outcome is the proportion of patients with atrial fibrillation receiving oral anticoagulation at the time of the posttest audit. Discussion The STOP STROKE in AF study aims to evaluate a feasible intervention via distance education to prevent avoidable stroke due to atrial fibrillation. It provides a systematic test of augmenting academic detailing with expert feedback about patient management. Trial registration Australian Clinical Trials Registry Registration Number: ACTRN12611000076976.
Gettings, M. E.
Combining information of disparate types from multiple data or model sources is a fundamental task in decision making theory. Procedures for combining and utilizing quantitative data with uncertainties are well-developed in several approaches, but methods for including qualitative and semi-quantitative data are much less so. Possibility theory offers an approach to treating all three data types in an objective and repeatable way. In decision making, biases are frequently present in several forms, including those arising from data quality, data spatial and temporal distribution, and the analyst's knowledge and beliefs as to which data or models are most important. The latter bias is particularly evident in the case of qualitative data and there are numerous examples of analysts feeling that a qualitative dataset is more relevant than a quantified one. Possibility theory and fuzzy logic now provide fairly general rules for quantifying qualitative and semi-quantitative data in ways that are repeatable and minimally biased. Once a set of quantified data and/or model layers is obtained, there are several methods of combining them to obtain insight useful in decision making. These include: various combinations of layers using formal fuzzy logic (for example, layer A and (layer B or layer C) but not layer D); connecting the layers with varying influence links in a Fuzzy Cognitive Map; and using the set of layers for the universe of discourse for agent based model simulations. One example of logical combinations that have proven useful is the definition of possible habitat for valley fever fungus (Coccidioides sp.) using variables such as soil type, altitude, aspect, moisture and temperature. A second example is the delineation of the lithology and possible mineralization of several areas beneath basin fill in southern Arizona. A Fuzzy Cognitive Map example is the impacts of development and operation of a hypothetical mine in an area adjacent to a city. In this model
derivative with respect to RAS: (S1) L = d(PC*D)/dRAS 3.1.3 Cognition (L3) Semantic memory recall in superior temporal sulcus (R) The Semantic Recollection (R) as associated with activity in the primary auditory cortex (Superior Temporal Sulcus, STS) is measured by theta-activity (Φ) in the EEG (in...... such as fairness, trust, altruism, memory, learning and knowledge. The goal of neuroeconomics is stated as to provide a descriptive decision-making theory, which is not restricted to economic theory and more realistic than that of economic man. Reviewing how neuroscience can inform economics [Camerer et al....... The role of Hippocampus in the formation of episodic or autobiographical memories is unquestioned (M). A newer line of Hippocampal research focuses the branching between ‘familiar' and ‘novel' sensory input. ‘Novel'-perceptions arising from mismatch with existing memories mobilizes the basal flight...
Full Text Available We propose a new approach for solving a class of discrete decision making problems under uncertainty with positive cost. This issue concerns multiple and diverse fields such as engineering, economics, artificial intelligence, cognitive science and many others. Basically, an agent has to choose a single or series of actions from a set of options, without knowing for sure their consequences. Schematically, two main approaches have been followed: either the agent learns which option is the correct one to choose in a given situation by trial and error, or the agent already has some knowledge on the possible consequences of his decisions; this knowledge being generally expressed as a conditional probability distribution. In the latter case, several optimal or suboptimal methods have been proposed to exploit this uncertain knowledge in various contexts. In this work, we propose following a different approach, based on the geometric intuition of distance. More precisely, we define a goal independent quasimetric structure on the state space, taking into account both cost function and transition probability. We then compare precision and computation time with classical approaches.
Lyerly, Anne Drapkin; Mitchell, Lisa M; Armstrong, Elizabeth M; Harris, Lisa H; Kukla, Rebecca; Kuppermann, Miriam; Little, Margaret Olivia
Assessing, communicating, and managing risk are among the most challenging tasks in the practice of medicine and are particularly difficult in the context of pregnancy. We analyze common scenarios in medical decision making around pregnancy, from reproductive health policy and clinical care to research protections. We describe three tendencies in these scenarios: 1) to consider the probabilities of undesirable outcomes alone, in isolation from women's values and social contexts, as determinative of individual clinical decisions and health policy; 2) to regard any risk to the fetus, including incremental risks that would in other contexts be regarded as acceptable, as trumping considerations that may be substantially more important to the wellbeing of the pregnant woman; and 3) to focus on the risks associated with undertaking medical interventions during pregnancy to the exclusion of demonstrable risks to both woman and fetus of failing to intervene. These tendencies in the perception, communication, and management of risk can lead to care that is neither evidence-based nor patient-centered, often to the detriment of both women and infants.
Zafeiris, Anna; Koman, Zsombor; Mones, Enys; Vicsek, Tamás
An essential task of groups is to provide efficient solutions for the complex problems they face. Indeed, considerable efforts have been devoted to the question of collective decision-making related to problems involving a single dominant feature. Here we introduce a quantitative formalism for finding the optimal distribution of the group members' competences in the more typical case when the underlying problem is complex, i.e., multidimensional. Thus, we consider teams that are aiming at obtaining the best possible answer to a problem having a number of independent sub-problems. Our approach is based on a generic scheme for the process of evaluating the proposed solutions (i.e., negotiation). We demonstrate that the best performing groups have at least one specialist for each sub-problem - but a far less intuitive result is that finding the optimal solution by the interacting group members requires that the specialists also have some insight into the sub-problems beyond their unique field(s). We present empirical results obtained by using a large-scale database of citations being in good agreement with the above theory. The framework we have developed can easily be adapted to a variety of realistic situations since taking into account the weights of the sub-problems, the opinions or the relations of the group is straightforward. Consequently, our method can be used in several contexts, especially when the optimal composition of a group of decision-makers is designed.
Massaro, D W
In the domain of pattern recognition, experiments have shown that perceivers integrate multiple sources of information in an optimal manner. In contrast, other research has been interpreted to mean that decision making is nonoptimal. As an example, Tversky and Kahneman (1983) have shown that subjects commit a conjunction fallacy because they judge it more likely that a fictitious person named Linda is a bank teller and a feminist than just a bank teller. This judgment supposedly violates probability theory, because the probability of two events can never be greater than the probability of either event alone. The present research tests the hypothesis that subjects interpret this judgment task as a pattern recognition task. If this hypothesis is correct, subjects' judgments should be described accurately by the fuzzy logical model of perception (FLMP)--a successful model of pattern recognition. In the first experiment, the Linda task was extended to an expanded factorial design with five vocations and five avocations. The probability ratings were described well by the FLMP and described poorly by a simple probability model. The second experiment included (1) two fictitious people, Linda and Joan, as response alternatives and (2) both ratings and categorization judgments. Although the ratings were accurately described by both the FLMP and an averaging of the sources of information, the categorization judgments were described better by the FLMP. These results reveal important similarities in recognizing patterns and in decision making. Given that the FLMP is an optimal method for combining multiple sources of information, the probability judgments appear to be optimal in the same manner as pattern-recognition judgments.
Dobrajska, Magdalena; Billinger, Stephan; Becker, Markus C.
Strategic decisions are often made by multiple organizational members who form decision-making structures specialized for a given strategic decision. We study a series of strategic decisions in a business unit of a global Fortune 500 firm, identifying for each decision the hierarchical...
Blustein, David L.; Phillips, Susan D.
Examined proposition that variations in career decision making are related to identity formation process by identifying relations between ego identity statuses and decision making in college students (N=99). Findings support proposition and suggest stable identity persons use rational and systematic decision-making strategies, foreclosed identity…
James, Constance R.; Smith, J. Goosby
This article presents a classroom ethical decision-making exercise designed to help students make reasoned ethical decisions while gaining insight into their own and others' ethical decision-making strategies. During the exercise, students individually analyze an original mini-case, then meet in small groups to reach consensus on the advice and…
Hulst, A.H. van der; Muller, T.J.; Buiel, E.F.T.; Gelooven, D.M.N. van; Ruijsendaal, M.
At the heart of tactical decision making and strategic decision making is 'situation assessment', the most 'intuitive' aspect of complex decision making. In training, it is also the most neglected. Particularly for developing situation assessment skills and the cognitive flexibility to apply those
Shaffer, Michal; Lichtenberg, James W.
Decision-making strategies have traditionally been classified as either prescriptive/normative or descriptive/behavioral in nature. Proponents of prescriptive/normative decision-making models attempt to develop procedures for making optimal decisions while proponents of the descriptive/behavioral models look for a choice that meets a minimal set…
McCullough, Laurence B
The professional medical ethics model of decision making may be applied to decisions clinicians and patients make under the conditions of clinical uncertainty that exist when evidence is low or very low. This model uses the ethical concepts of medicine as a profession, the professional virtues of integrity and candor and the patient's virtue of prudence, the moral management of medical uncertainty, and trial of intervention. These features combine to justifiably constrain clinicians' and patients' autonomy with the goal of preventing nondeliberative decisions of patients and clinicians. To prevent biased recommendations by the clinician that promote such nondeliberative decisions, medically reasonable alternatives supported by low or very low evidence should be offered but not recommended. The professional medical ethics model of decision making aims to improve the quality of decisions by reducing the unacceptable variation that can result from nondeliberative decision making by patients and clinicians when evidence is low or very low.
In the past two decades, national and international efforts have assessed the current understanding and consequences of climate variability and change. Two recent documents, the IPCC and CCSP, have outlined areas of research that are needed to further our understanding of the form, direction, and impacts of climate variability and change. Both documents point to the need for an increase in data networks, and modeling and process studies, including paleoclimate-based research. In addition, cutting across the key scientific issues of climate variability and change is the need to communicate scientific information so it can provide a foundation for informed planning and decision making, particularly at the regional level. The disconnect between scientific information and decision-making has been recognized and has begun to be addressed. The challenge of communicating the relevance and usefulness of climate-related data to decision makers is the focus of this presentation, and in particular, on applications of tree-ring based hydroclimatic reconstructions to water resource planning and management in Colorado. An opportunity to engage the water resource management community in considering the usefulness of paleoclimatic records was presented by recent and continuing drought conditions in the western US. In Colorado, Front Range water managers have commonly based drought planning on the premise that the most severe drought in the instrumental record, typically the 1950s drought, represents a likely worst-case scenario. Until the drought of 2002, there was no compelling need to take a more long-term look at water resource management. However, severe and in some respects, unprecedented drought in 2002 motivated many water managers to consider using tree-ring reconstructions of annual streamflow in assessing the risks of drought over time spans beyond the 20th century. Interactions with water providers have ranged from providing regionally-representative reconstructions of
This book introduces methods for uncertain multi-attribute decision making including uncertain multi-attribute group decision making and their applications to supply chain management, investment decision making, personnel assessment, redesigning products, maintenance services, military system efficiency evaluation. Multi-attribute decision making, also known as multi-objective decision making with finite alternatives, is an important component of modern decision science. The theory and methods of multi-attribute decision making have been extensively applied in engineering, economics, management and military contexts, such as venture capital project evaluation, facility location, bidding, development ranking of industrial sectors and so on. Over the last few decades, great attention has been paid to research on multi-attribute decision making in uncertain settings, due to the increasing complexity and uncertainty of supposedly objective aspects and the fuzziness of human thought. This book can be used as a ref...
Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, Stans
This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making. Attention is paid to three aspects of the wider context of the models: a) the history of the construction process; b) (changes in) the political and scientific environments; and c) the use in policy processes over longer periods of time. Models are more successfully used when they are constructed in a stable political and scientific environment. Stability and certainty within a scientific field seems to be a key predictor for the usefulness of models for policy making. The economic model is more disputed than the ecology-based model and the model that has its theoretical foundation in physics and chemistry. The roles models play in policy processes are too complex to be considered as straightforward technocratic powers.
Sonntag, Ulrike; Wiesner, Julia; Fahrenkrog, Sandra; Renneberg, Babette; Braun, Vittoria; Heintze, Christoph
The aim of this study was to assess general practitioners' (GP) readiness to involve obese patients in therapy decision making and to determine whether they integrate motivational interviewing techniques. Fifty-eight preventive Check-up 35 encounters with overweight and obese patients in primary care were audio recorded in 12 GP practices. The use of motivational interviewing techniques was rated with the Behavior Change Counseling Index (BECCI). The involvement in medical decisions was rated with the Observing Patient Involvement Scale (OPTION). OPTION and BECCI scores were low (means=0.71 and 1.65), indicating minimal implementation of shared decision making and motivational interviewing in preventive encounters with these patients. GPs used more motivational interviewing for patients with a BMI>30 kg/m(2) than for those with a BMImotivational interviewing, though known to be successful strategies in lifestyle counseling, are rarely used during obesity encounters in our sample of German GPs. GPs should be sensitized and trained in the application of these methods. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available Multi-criteria decisions usually require measurement or evaluation of performance in different units and their mix by application of weighting factors. This approach lads to potential manipulation of the results as a direct consequence of the applied weightings. In this paper a mechanism that is the brain child of the authors, has been proposed to overcome this problem. It is known as the Interlink Decision Making Index (IDMI and has all the desired features: simple, interlink (all criteria and automatically guaranteed dominant influence of critical criteria (i.e. no human weighting needed. The IDMI is capable of reflecting the total merits of a particular option once the normal decision making criteria and (up to two critical criteria have been chosen. Then, without arbitrarily weighting criteria, comparison and selection of the best possible option can be made. Simple software has been developed to do this numerical transfer and graphic presentation. Two hypothetical examples are presented in the paper to demonstrate the application of the IDMI concept and its advantages over the traditional "tabular and weightingmethod" in the decision making process.
Colakkadioglu, Oguzhan; Celik, D. Billur
Problem Statement: Decision making is a critical cognitive process in every area of human life. In this process, the individuals play an active role and obtain outputs with their functional use of decision-making skills. Therefore, the decision-making process can affect the course of life, life satisfaction, and the social relations of an…
Full Text Available When there is a social consensus that industrial assets are in fact heritage elements of cultural interest, their conservation and reuse must be considered with approaches that offer greater guarantees and that prevent their exposure to aggressive actions. In order for this to materialise, many aspects must be included in the decision-making process, from the characteristics of an asset and its surroundings, to the valuable aspects that distinguish it and that must be protected. This study aims to develop tools that guide the decision-making process regarding the most appropriate activity for each specific case study. Multicriteria Decision Support Techniques are evaluated as adequate support to create a proposal that fulfils these objectives. Furthermore, the Analytic Hierarchy Process is adapted to develop methodologies for assessing both the heritage value and the most compatible uses according to the characteristics of the asset. Subsequently, they are connected and such considerations regarding the heritage value of the asset are incorporated into the final decision. The tools developed are then applied to a case study to test their performance, assess their usefulness, and identify possible applications and future developments.
Austin, L; Brodersen, John; Reventlow, Susanne
Historically, medical decisions have primarily involved diagnosis and treatment of symptomatic patients. Increasingly, medical decisions concern uncertain future health states in asymptomatic people. We construct a taxonomy of five medical decision situations that encompasses these wider possibil......Historically, medical decisions have primarily involved diagnosis and treatment of symptomatic patients. Increasingly, medical decisions concern uncertain future health states in asymptomatic people. We construct a taxonomy of five medical decision situations that encompasses these wider...... the symptomatic patient; 2) assessing someone for an asymptomatic condition; 3) assessing someone for increased risk of a future condition; 4) simultaneously assessing multiple risks factors for one person; and 5) assessing the individual based only on population membership....
One of the most important roles of the nuclear reactor operator is that of decision maker. This paper discusses a simple model of the decision process used by the reactor operator. Resources that must be available so that he can perform the decision process are presented. Decision aids which have been investigated at EG and G Idaho, Inc., as part of the LOFT Augmented Operator Capability Program are briefly discussed. Some general concepts of computerized decision aiding are developed, and the promises and pitfalls of such decision aids are explored
Hsieh, Linda; Elbanna, Said; Narooz, Rose
ad hoc internationalization, credit check, distribution adaptation, and decision team size) and their influence on the extent of procedural rationality in SME internationalization decision-making process. The findings from a sample of 176 export-active SMEs show that decision-makers tend to follow...... a more rational decision-making procedure when they perceive a high level of international risk. The evidence also suggest that internationalization performance, planned internationalization, credit check, and decision team size are positively related to procedural rationality....
Ashok A Divekar; Sunita Bangal; Sumangala D.
The field of decision making can be loosely divided into two parts: the study of prescriptive models and the study of descriptive models. Prescriptive decision scientists are concerned with prescribing methods for making optimal decisions. Descriptive decision researchers are concerned with the bounded way in which the decisions are actually made. The statistics courses treat risk from a prescriptive, by suggesting rational methods. This paper brings out the work done by many researchers by e...
Manikas, Konstantinos; Wnuk, Krzysztof; Shollo, Arisa
and review related literature consisted of software ecosystem governance, organizational decision making, and IT governance. Based on the identified studies, we propose a framework for defining the decision making strategies in the governance of software ecosystems. We identify five decision areas...... for software ecosystem governance and four archetypes describing the way decisions are taken for each decision area. We explain this matrix-based framework by providing examples from existing software ecosystems....
Labudda, Kirsten; Frigge, Kristina; Horstmann, Simone; Aengenendt, Joerg; Woermann, Friedrich G; Ebner, Alois; Markowitsch, Hans J; Brand, Matthias
The mesiotemporal lobe is involved in decision making processes because bilateral amygdala damage can cause impairments in decision making that is mainly based on the processing of emotional feedback. In addition to executive functions, previous studies have suggested the involvement of feedback processing in decision making under risk when explicit information about consequences and their probabilities is provided. In the current study, we investigated whether unilateral mesiotemporal damage, comprising of the hippocampus and/or the amygdala, results in alterations of both kinds of decision making. For this purpose, we preoperatively examined 20 patients with refractory unilateral mesiotemporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) and a comparison group (CG) of 20 healthy volunteers with the Iowa Gambling Task to assess decision making based on feedback processing, the Game of Dice Task to assess decision making under risk, and with a neuropsychological test battery. Results indicate that TLE patients performed normally in decision making under risk, but can exhibit disturbances in decision making on the Iowa Gambling Task. A subgroup analysis revealed that those patients with a preference for the disadvantageous alternatives performed worse on executive subcomponents and had seizure onset at an earlier age in comparison to the patient subgroup without disadvantageous decision making. Furthermore, disadvantageous decision making can emerge in patients with selective hippocampal sclerosis not extended to the amygdala. Thus, our results demonstrate for the first time that presurgical patients with TLE can have selective reductions in decision making and that these deficits can result from hippocampal lesions without structural amygdala abnormalities.
Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.
Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management
Full Text Available In developed countries, nowadays we live in a networked society: a society of information, knowledge and services (Castells, 1996, with strong specificities in the Health field (Bourret, 2003, Silber, 2003. The World Health Organization (WHO has outlined the importance of information for improving health for all. However, financial resources remain limited. Health costs represent 11% of GNP in France, Germany, Switzerland and Canada, 14% in the USA, and 7.5% in Spain and the United Kingdom. Governments, local powers, health or insurance organizations therefore face difficult choices in terms of opportunities and priorities, and for that they need specific and valuable data. Firstly, this paper provide a comprehensive overview of our networked society and the appointment of ICT (Information and Communication Technologies and Health (in other words e-Health in a perspective of needs and uses at the micro, meso, and macro levels. We point out the main challenges of development of Nationwide Health Information Network both in the US, UK and France. Then we analyze the main issues about data for Decision Making in Networked Health: coordination and evaluation. In the last sections, we use an Information System perspective to investigate the three interoperability layers (micro, meso and macro. We analyze the requirements and challenges to design an interoperability global architecture which supports different kinds of interactions; then we focus on the harmonization efforts provided at several levels. Finally, we identify common methodological and engineering issues.
This article is concerned with the question of how to argue about morality and ethics in relationto a severe and deadly hereditary disease. It is inspired by the uneasiness I have felt on a number of ocations when "right and wrong" is being discussed by persons at risk, professionals and in parti......This article is concerned with the question of how to argue about morality and ethics in relationto a severe and deadly hereditary disease. It is inspired by the uneasiness I have felt on a number of ocations when "right and wrong" is being discussed by persons at risk, professionals...... and in particular when discussed by outsiders. This task is not an easy one and the article tries to lay out more groundwork than it arrives at conclusions. Below follows a brief introduction to my framework and some of the concepts that are important for my way of outlining the arguments that follow. Then I take...... a closer look at genetic knowledge, responsibility and decision making, because these seem to be important issues in my field of study. I have added ignorance to the list in order to discuss a further aspect of dealing with hereditary disease. Interestingly, ignorance (understood both as being ignorant...
Mason, Keith J.
This research surveys twenty large companies and their travellers to identify and evaluate the effects of pressures on the business travel market in the future. The influence of the following areas on the decision making process are addressed: (1) Corporate travel policies and increasing professionalism in corporate purchasing; (2) The development of global strategic airline alliances; (3) The emergence of low cost airlines on short haul markets; and (4) The development of internet based booking tools and travel agency IT. The survey shows differences in views between travel managers, and travellers with regard to corporate travel policies. While travel managers see policy rules, travellers interpret these as guidelines, indicating travel managers will need to take further actions to exercise true control of travel budgets. The data shows that companies are more likely to prescribe a class of airline ticket, than the choice of airline itself. Corporate hierarchical bias in travel policies is still common both for short and particularly long haul flying. Other findings show that while travel managers believe that their companies are likely to sign global deals with strategic airline groups within a five year period in a bid to consolidating spending, they also believe that nearly a third of short haul flying will be taken with low cost carriers, indicating further penetration in this business travel market by these carriers. The paper also provides other predictions about the business travel market, based on the survey findings.
Full Text Available Decision making in sport emerges from the players' interaction with the game context (Araújo, Davids, & Hristovski, 2006. Results from studies on the one-on-one in basketball identified interpersonal distance and relative velocity as relevant variables (i.e., control parameters. These results are reinterpreted in the perspective of the General Tau Theory (Lee, 1998, in which movement is regarded as guided by controlling tau motion-gaps (time to fulfil a gap and taucouplings. Further empirical evidence for this argument, came from a recent study in a team ball sport, where the tau variable was considered and verified as significantly related to decisional behaviour. Following this, it is assumed that the focus in candidate control parameters that detach the spatial component from the temporal one, presented in previous studies, may not be sufficient to explain the decisional behaviour in basketball. In this way, the variable tau is proposed as more informative given that enfolds inextricably spatial-temporal information.
Zylberberg, Ariel; Lorteije, Jeannette Am; Ouellette, Brian G; De Zeeuw, Chris I; Sigman, Mariano; Roelfsema, Pieter
The study of decision-making has mainly focused on isolated decisions where choices are associated with motor actions. However, problem-solving often involves considering a hierarchy of sub-decisions. In a recent study (Lorteije et al. 2015), we reported behavioral and neuronal evidence for hierarchical decision making in a task with a small decision tree. We observed a first phase of parallel evidence integration for multiple sub-decisions, followed by a phase in which the overall strategy formed. It has been suggested that a 'flat' competition between the ultimate motor actions might also explain these results. A reanalysis of the data does not support the critical predictions of flat models. We also examined the time-course of decision making in other, related tasks and report conditions where evidence integration for successive decisions is decoupled, which excludes flat models. We conclude that the flexibility of decision-making implies that the strategies are genuinely hierarchical.
Full Text Available Security is a critical concern in today's software systems. Besides the interconnectivity and dynamic nature of network systems, the increasing complexity in modern software systems amplifies the complexity of IT security. This fact leaves attackers one step ahead in exploiting vulnerabilities and introducing new cyberattacks. The demand for new methodologies in addressing cybersecurity is emphasized by both private and national corporations. A practical solution to dynamically manage the high complexity of IT security is adaptive security, which facilitates analysis of the system's behaviour and hence the prevention of malicious attacks in complex systems. Systems that feature adaptive security detect and mitigate security threats at runtime with little or no administrator involvement. In these systems, decisions at runtime are balanced according to quality and performance goals. This article describes the necessity of holistic decision making in such systems and paves the road to future research.
Lettice, Fiona; Durowoju, Olatunde
Effective supply chain integration, and the tight co-ordination it creates, is an essential pre-requisite for successful supply chain management. Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration is a practical reference on recent research in the area of supply chain integration focusing on distributed decision-making problems. Recent applications of various decision-making tools for integrating supply chains are covered including chapters focusing on: •Supplier selection, pricing strategy and inventory decisions in multi-level supply chains, •RFID-enabled distributed decision-making, •Operational risk issues and time-critical decision-making for sensitive logistics nodes, Modelling end to end processes to improve supply chain integration, and •Integrated systems to improve service delivery and optimize resource use. Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration provides an insight into the tools and methodologies of this field with support from real-life case studies demonstrating successful application ...
Alvino, Letizia; Franco, Massimo
The decision-making process has been analyzed in several disciplines (economics, social sciences, humanities, etc.) with the aim of creating models to help decision-makers in strategy formulation. The Organizational theory takes into account both the decision-making process of individuals and groups
Daniel L. Schmoldt; David L. Peterson
Group decision making is becoming increasingly important in natural resource management and associated scientific applications, because multiple values are treated coincidentally in time and space, multiple resource specialists are needed, and multiple stakeholders must be included in the decision process. Decades of social science research on decision making in groups...
Van Santen, W.; Jonker, C.M.; Wijngaards, N.
Decision making during crises takes place in (multi-agency) teams, in a bureaucratic political context. As a result, the common notion that during crises decision making should be done in line with a Command & Control structure is invalid. This paper shows that the best way for crisis decision
Faria, G; Barrett, E; Goodman, L M
The results of a study of 517 women seeking abortion are presented regarding attitudes about abortion in general, feelings about the specific decision to have an abortion and the social networks utilized in the decision-making process. Areas of potential conflict related to decision-making are identified along with the implications for social work practice.
Mahmoodi, Neda; Sargeant, Sally
This interview-based study uses phenomenology as a theoretical framework and thematic analysis to challenge existing explanatory frameworks of shared decision-making, in an exploration of women's experiences and perceptions of shared decision-making for adjuvant treatment in breast cancer. Three themes emerged are as follows: (1) women's desire to participate in shared decision-making, (2) the degree to which shared decision-making is perceived to be shared and (3) to what extent are women empowered within shared decision-making. Studying breast cancer patients' subjective experiences of adjuvant treatment decision-making provides a broader perspective on patient participatory role preferences and doctor-patient power dynamics within shared decision-making for breast cancer.
Taking major life decisions, e.g. what career to follow, is difficult and sometimes emotional. One has to find out what exactly one wants, consider the long-term consequences of the decisions and be empathetic for loved ones affected by the decisions. Decision making also deals with establishing and
Michael, Emmerich T. M.; Deutz, A.H.; Li, L.; Asep, Maulana A.; Yevseyeva, I.
This paper deals with a scenario of decision making where a moderator selects a (sub)set (aka portfolio) of decision alternatives from a larger set. The larger the number of decision makers who agree on a solution in the portfolio the more successful the moderator is. We assume that decision makers
Uddin, Jasim; Sarma, Haribondhu; Bari, Tajul I; Koehlmoos, Tracey P
The understanding of the decision-making process in the introduction of new vaccines helps establish why vaccines are adopted or not. It also contributes to building a sustainable demand for vaccines in a country. The purpose of the study was to map and analyze the formal decision-making process in relation to the introduction of new vaccines within the context of health policy and health systems and identify the ways of making decisions to introduce new vaccines in Bangladesh. During February-April 2011, a qualitative assessment was made at the national level to evaluate the decision-making process around the adoption of new vaccines in Bangladesh. The study population included: policy-level people, programme heads or associates, and key decision-makers of the Government, private sector, non-governmental organizations, and international agencies at the national level. In total, 13 key informants were purposively selected. Data were collected by interviewing key informants and reviewing documents. Data were analyzed thematically. The findings revealed that the actors from different sectors at the policy level were involved in the decision-making process in the introduction of new vaccines. They included policy-makers from the ministries of health and family welfare, finance, and local government and rural development; academicians; researchers; representatives from professional associations; development partners; and members of different committees on EPI. They contributed to the introduction of new vaccines in their own capacity. The burden of disease, research findings on vaccine-preventable diseases, political issues relating to outbreaks of certain diseases, initiatives of international and local stakeholders, pressure of development partners, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) support, and financial matters were the key factors in the introduction of new vaccines in Bangladesh. The slow introduction and uptake of new vaccines is a concern
financial year, we need (monthly or quarterly data and the introduction of a proper accounting information system for the managers to continuously receive those processed data that are essential for decision making, and to receive information about the performance of their department. This study’s aim is to show the difference between the consequences of company liquidity results using only year-end data and when liquidity indicators are being adjusted on a monthly basis
Kirby, Ann; Murphy, Aileen; Bradley, Colin
Purpose Internationally, healthcare systems are moving towards delivering care in an integrated manner which advocates a multi-disciplinary approach to decision making. Such an approach is formally encouraged in the management of Atrial Fibrillation patients through the European Society of Cardiology guidelines. Since the emergence of new oral anticoagulants switching between oral anticoagulants (OACs) has become prevalent. This case study considers the role of multi-disciplinary decision making, given the complex nature of the agents. The purpose of this paper is to explore Irish General Practitioners' (GPs) experience of switching between all OACs for Arial Fibrillation (AF) patients; prevalence of multi-disciplinary decision making in OAC switching decisions and seeks to determine the GP characteristics that appear to influence the likelihood of multi-disciplinary decision making. Design/methodology/approach A probit model is used to determine the factors influencing multi-disciplinary decision making and a multinomial logit is used to examine the factors influencing who is involved in the multi-disciplinary decisions. Findings Results reveal that while some multi-disciplinary decision-making is occurring (64 per cent), it is not standard practice despite international guidelines on integrated care. Moreover, there is a lack of patient participation in the decision-making process. Female GPs and GPs who have initiated prescriptions for OACs are more likely to engage in multi-disciplinary decision-making surrounding switching OACs amongst AF patients. GPs with training practices were less likely to engage with cardiac consultants and those in urban areas were more likely to engage with other (non-cardiac) consultants. Originality/value For optimal decision making under uncertainty multi-disciplinary decision-making is needed to make a more informed judgement and to improve treatment decisions and reduce the opportunity cost of making the wrong decision.
Powell, Gary N.; Greenhaus, Jeffrey H.
The work-family literature has provided an abundance of evidence that various family factors are linked to various work decisions, suggesting that the "family-relatedness" of work decisions is a prevalent phenomenon (Greenhaus & Powell, 2012). However, the cognitive processes by which such linkages occur have received little attention. We offer a…
Landmesser, John Andrew
Information technology (IT) investment decision makers are required to process large volumes of complex data. An existing body of knowledge relevant to IT portfolio management (PfM), decision analysis, visual comprehension of large volumes of information, and IT investment decision making suggest Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and…
Truglio-Londrigan, Marie; Slyer, Jason T
Shared decision-making has received national and international interest by providers, educators, researchers, and policy makers. The literature on shared decision-making is extensive, dealing with the individual components of shared decision-making rather than a comprehensive process. This view of shared decision-making leaves healthcare providers to wonder how to integrate shared decision-making into practice. To understand shared decision-making as a comprehensive process from the perspective of the patient and provider in all healthcare settings. An integrative review was conducted applying a systematic approach involving a literature search, data evaluation, and data analysis. The search included articles from PubMed, CINAHL, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and PsycINFO from 1970 through 2016. Articles included quantitative experimental and non-experimental designs, qualitative, and theoretical articles about shared decision-making between all healthcare providers and patients in all healthcare settings. Fifty-two papers were included in this integrative review. Three categories emerged from the synthesis: (a) communication/ relationship building; (b) working towards a shared decision; and (c) action for shared decision-making. Each major theme contained sub-themes represented in the proposed visual representation for shared decision-making. A comprehensive understanding of shared decision-making between the nurse and the patient was identified. A visual representation offers a guide that depicts shared decision-making as a process taking place during a healthcare encounter with implications for the continuation of shared decisions over time offering patients an opportunity to return to the nurse for reconsiderations of past shared decisions.
Mikhail I Rabinovich
Full Text Available The idea that cognitive activity can be understood using nonlinear dynamics has been intensively discussed at length for the last 15 years. One of the popular points of view is that metastable states play a key role in the execution of cognitive functions. Experimental and modeling studies suggest that most of these functions are the result of transient activity of large-scale brain networks in the presence of noise. Such transients may consist of a sequential switching between different metastable cognitive states. The main problem faced when using dynamical theory to describe transient cognitive processes is the fundamental contradiction between reproducibility and flexibility of transient behavior. In this paper, we propose a theoretical description of transient cognitive dynamics based on the interaction of functionally dependent metastable cognitive states. The mathematical image of such transient activity is a stable heteroclinic channel, i.e., a set of trajectories in the vicinity of a heteroclinic skeleton that consists of saddles and unstable separatrices that connect their surroundings. We suggest a basic mathematical model, a strongly dissipative dynamical system, and formulate the conditions for the robustness and reproducibility of cognitive transients that satisfy the competing requirements for stability and flexibility. Based on this approach, we describe here an effective solution for the problem of sequential decision making, represented as a fixed time game: a player takes sequential actions in a changing noisy environment so as to maximize a cumulative reward. As we predict and verify in computer simulations, noise plays an important role in optimizing the gain.
Grabbe, Shon R.; Sridhar, Banavar; Mukherjee, Avijit
A generalized approach is proposed to support integrated traffic flow management decision making studies at both the U.S. national and regional levels. It can consider tradeoffs between alternative optimization and heuristic based models, strategic versus tactical flight controls, and system versus fleet preferences. Preliminary testing was accomplished by implementing thirteen unique traffic flow management models, which included all of the key components of the system and conducting 85, six-hour fast-time simulation experiments. These experiments considered variations in the strategic planning look-ahead times, the replanning intervals, and the types of traffic flow management control strategies. Initial testing indicates that longer strategic planning look-ahead times and re-planning intervals result in steadily decreasing levels of sector congestion for a fixed delay level. This applies when accurate estimates of the air traffic demand, airport capacities and airspace capacities are available. In general, the distribution of the delays amongst the users was found to be most equitable when scheduling flights using a heuristic scheduling algorithm, such as ration-by-distance. On the other hand, equity was the worst when using scheduling algorithms that took into account the number of seats aboard each flight. Though the scheduling algorithms were effective at alleviating sector congestion, the tactical rerouting algorithm was the primary control for avoiding en route weather hazards. Finally, the modeled levels of sector congestion, the number of weather incursions, and the total system delays, were found to be in fair agreement with the values that were operationally observed on both good and bad weather days.
Hadjistavropoulos, T; Malloy, D C
This paper proposes a theoretical augmentation of the seven-step decision-making model outlined in the Canadian Code of Ethics for Psychologists. We propose that teleological, deontological, and existential ethical perspectives should be taken into account in the decision-making process. We also consider the influence of individual, issue-specific, significant-other, situational, and external factors on ethical decision-making. This theoretical analysis demonstrates the richness and complexity of ethical decision-making.
General concepts and principles of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), describe how PRA can improve the bases of Agency decisions, and provide illustrations of how PRA has been used in risk estimation and in describing the uncertainty in decision making.
Nygren, Thomas E.
Research on human decision making has traditionally focused on how people actually make decisions, how good their decisions are, and how their decisions can be improved. Recent research suggests that this model is inadequate. Affective as well as cognitive components drive the way information about relevant outcomes and events is perceived, integrated, and used in the decision making process. The affective components include how the individual frames outcomes as good or bad, whether the individual anticipates regret in a decision situation, the affective mood state of the individual, and the psychological stress level anticipated or experienced in the decision situation. A focus of the current work has been to propose empirical studies that will attempt to examine in more detail the relationships between the latter two critical affective influences (mood state and stress) on decision making behavior.
Dolan, J G; Isselhardt, B J; Cappuccio, J D
The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a quantitative decision making technique created especially for complicated, multicriteria decision problems. This report reviews the theoretical foundations of the AHP and shows how to use it in a step-by-step fashion.
Garnett, Victoria; Smith, Joanna; Ormandy, Paula
Aim To explore and describe child-parent shared decision making for the management of childhood asthma. Methods A qualitative, descriptive, interview-based study was undertaken. Eight children and nine parents participated. The framework approach underpinned data analysis. Findings A dynamic model of the way children and parents transfer, shift and share asthma management decisions was uncovered. Asthma management decisions between children and parents were non-linear, with responsibility transferring from parent to child under different conditions. Children made a range of decisions about their asthma, often sharing decisions with their parents. However, during acute illness episodes, children often relied on parents to make decisions about their asthma. Conclusion Neither the child nor parent has complete autonomy over asthma management decisions. Decision making is a dynamic, shifting and shared process, dependent on contextual factors and child and parent decision preferences.
Levison, W. H.; Tanner, R. B.
A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.
Decision has inspired reflection of many thinkers since the ancient times. With the rapid development of science and society, appropriate dynamic decision making has been playing an increasingly important role in many areas of human activity including engineering, management, economy and others. In most real-world problems, decision makers usually have to make decisions sequentially at different points in time and space, at different levels for a component or a system, while facing multiple and conflicting objectives and a hybrid uncertain environment where fuzziness and randomness co-exist in a decision making process. This leads to the development of fuzzy-like multiple objective multistage decision making. This book provides a thorough understanding of the concepts of dynamic optimization from a modern perspective and presents the state-of-the-art methodology for modeling, analyzing and solving the most typical multiple objective multistage decision making practical application problems under fuzzy-like un...
Engelhardt, Ellen G.; Pieterse, Arwen H.; van der Hout, Anja; de Haes, Hanneke J. C. J. M.; Kroep, Judith R.; Quarles van Ufford-Mannesse, Patricia; Portielje, Johanneke E. A.; Smets, Ellen M. A.; Stiggelbout, Anne M.
Shared decision making (SDM) is widely advocated, especially for preference-sensitive decisions like those on adjuvant treatment for early-stage cancer. Here, decision making involves a subjective trade-off between benefits and side-effects, and therefore, patients' informed preferences should be
Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E.
Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people’s confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality. PMID:26517475
Ren, Jian; Gao, Yang; Bian, Can
For solving the discrete linguistic stochastic multiple criteria decision making problems with incomplete information, a new decision making method based on the differences between the superiorities and the inferiorities is proposed. According to the two basic parameters which are the possible outcome and the state probability, the superior decision matrix and the inferior decision matrix of the alternative set under each criterion are first worked out. Then, by the differences between the el...
Decision-making refers to assessing costs and benefits of competing actions, with either a known outcome or an uncertain result. Decision-making depends on several abilities, such as behavioural flexibility and inhibiting risky responses. Several factors affect decision-making, causing differences
This paper examines the concepts of decision-making, risk analysis, uncertainty and resilience analysis. The relation between risk, vulnerability, and resilience is analyzed. The paper describes how complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity are the most critical factors in the definition of the approach and criteria for decision-making. Uncertainty in its various forms is what limits our ability to offer definitive answers to questions about the outcomes of alternatives in a decision-making process. It is shown that, although resilience-informed decision-making would seem fundamentally different from risk-informed decision-making, this is not the case as resilience-analysis can be easily incorporated within existing analytic-deliberative decision-making frameworks.
Fox, John; Cooper, Richard P; Glasspool, David W
Decision-making behavior is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI, and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualization of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision-maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision-making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem solving, planning, and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuropsychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering.
Full Text Available Decision-making behaviour is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualisation of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem-solving, planning and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuro-psychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering.
Roijers, D.M.; Vamplew, P.; Whiteson, S.; Dazeley, R.
Sequential decision-making problems with multiple objectives arise naturally in practice and pose unique challenges for research in decision-theoretic planning and learning, which has largely focused on single-objective settings. This article surveys algorithms designed for sequential decision-making problems with multiple objectives. Though there is a growing body of literature on this subject, little of it makes explicit under what circumstances special methods are needed to solve multi-obj...
Collaborative decision making is a successful approach in settings where data analysis and querying can be done interactively. In large scale systems with huge data volumes or many users, collaboration is often hindered by impractical runtimes. Existing work on improving collaboration focuses on ...... to bring about more effective and more efficient retrieval systems that support the users' decision making process. We sketch promising research directions for more efficient algorithms for collaborative decision making, especially for large scale systems....
Uddin, Jasim; Sarma, Haribondhu; Bari, Tajul I.; Koehlmoos, Tracey P.
The understanding of the decision-making process in the introduction of new vaccines helps establish why vaccines are adopted or not. It also contributes to building a sustainable demand for vaccines in a country. The purpose of the study was to map and analyze the formal decision-making process in relation to the introduction of new vaccines within the context of health policy and health systems and identify the ways of making decisions to introduce new vaccines in Bangladesh. During Februar...
Bj?rk, Ida Torunn; Hamilton, Glenys A.
This study analyzed nurses' perceptions of clinical decision making (CDM) in their clinical practice and compared differences in decision making related to nurse demographic and contextual variables. A cross-sectional survey was carried out with 2095 nurses in four hospitals in Norway. A 24-item Nursing Decision Making Instrument based on cognitive continuum theory was used to explore how nurses perceived their CDM when meeting an elective patient for the first time. Data were analyzed with d...
Shaw, Peter J A
You are faced with so many difficult decisions. Often your decision making seems random. It can be swayed by different situations and emotions. You need to be more rigorous in the way you make decisions and yet you have very little time to do so. Experience from others who have made tough decisions and a framework to help you do so would be invaluable. The courage to make decisions is sometimes a bit elusive. It is difficult to find the calmness to be able to make and live with those decisions. There is so much that can be learned from the experience of others. After working through this boo
Lee, Byung Do
During the diagnostic process of the various oral and maxillofacial lesions, we should consider the following: 'When should we order diagnostic tests? What tests should be ordered? How should we interpret the results clinically? And how should we use this frequently imperfect information to make optimal medical decision?' For the clinicians to make proper judgement, several decision making tools are suggested. This article discusses the concept of the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity values) with several decision making tools such as decision matrix, ROC analysis and Bayesian analysis. The article also explain the introductory concept of ORAD program
Creighton, James L
"Internationally renowned facilitator and consultant James L. Creighton offers a practical guide to designing and facilitating public participation in environmental and public policy decision making...
Balancing the polarized notions of quality and quantity of service and care is a challenge for the 21st century health and social service system. The expectation of transparent decision making at both the policy and the practice level of case management has forced practitioners to seek guidance in ethical decision making. Case management, as a system, has potential to lead this new practice approach by incorporating the principles of ethical decision making in planning and coordinating care. A recent case study of ethical decision making within the bureaucratic context offers some insight and learning and may help inform future practice.
This paper will describe an experiment aimed at increasing the social responsiveness of planning and decision processes. It involves an on-going effort by the canadian federal government to site a facility to manage low level radioactive wastes
To examine the application of the decision tree approach to collaborative clinical decision-making in mental health care in the United Kingdom (UK). While this approach to decision-making has been examined in the acute care setting, there is little published evidence of its use in clinical decision-making within the mental health setting. The complexities of dual diagnosis (schizophrenia and substance misuse in this case example) and the varied viewpoints of different professionals often hamper the decision-making process. This paper highlights how the approach was used successfully as a multiprofessional collaborative approach to decision-making in the context of British community mental health care. A selective review of the relevant literature and a case study application of the decision tree framework. The process of applying the decision tree framework to clinical decision-making in mental health practice can be time consuming and client inclusion within the process is not always appropriate. The approach offers a method of assigning numerical values to support complex multiprofessional decision-making as well as considering underpinning literature to inform the final decision. Use of the decision tree offers a common framework that can assist professionals to examine the options available to them in depth, while considering the complex variables that influence decision-making in collaborative mental health practice. Use of the decision tree warrants further consideration in mental health care in terms of practice and education.
Full Text Available The aim of this study is to examine the self-esteem in decision making and decision-making styles of orienteering athletes in terms of different variables. 157 male and 43 female orienteering athletes, making a total of 200 athletes that joined the 3rd Level of Turkey Championship in 2015 have participated in this study which is in a survey model. The data collection tools were the Melbourne Decision-making. Quastionnaire I-II and the Personal Information Form which were adapted into Turkish by Deniz (2004. In the data analysis, descriptive statics, anova, t test and Tukey test have been utilized. There is a significant difference between athletes’ marital status, age groups, experiences in orienteering sports and self-esteem in decision making, decision making styles (p<0.05. According to the research results, it has been determined that married orienteering athletes prefer both self-esteem in decision making and vigilance decision-making style more often than the single athletes that mostly prefer procrastination decision-making style. Also, it has been found out that as the athletes’ age and experiences in sports increase, selfesteem and decision-making styles are affected more positively as well.
The Flexner Report highlighted the importance of teaching medical students to reason about uncertainty. The science of medical decision making seeks to explain how medical judgments and decisions ought ideally to be made, how they are actually made in practice, and how they can be improved, given the constraints of medical practice. The field considers both clinical decisions by or for individual patients and societal decisions designed to benefit the public. Despite the relevance of decision making to medical practice, it currently receives little formal attention in the U.S. medical school curriculum. This article suggests three roles for medical decision making in medical education. First, basic decision science would be a valuable prerequisite to medical training. Second, several decision-related competencies would be important outcomes of medical education; these include the physician's own decision skills, the ability to guide patients in shared decisions, and knowledge of health policy decisions at the societal level. Finally, decision making could serve as a unifying principle in the design of the medical curriculum, integrating other curricular content around the need to create physicians who are competent and caring decision makers.
Kasamatsu, Mizuki; Hanada, Satoshi; Noda, Eisuke
Decision Make Supporting System is designed to support appropriate decision made by top management in the nuclear severe conditions. With crisis response in nuclear power plant (NPP), information entanglement between sites and control centers during intense situations interfere with prompt and accurate decision making. This research started with that kind of background. In order to solve the issue of the information entanglement, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Inc. (MHI) carried out the development of the Decision Make Supporting System and the system applies the technology combining the human factors engineering (HFE) and information and communication technology (ICT). During the crisis response, various commands, reactions and communications in a human system need to be managed. Therefore, the combined HFE method including detailed task analysis, user experience (UX), graphic user interface (GUI) and related human-system interface (HSI) design method is applied to the design of the system. These design results systematize the functions that prevent interference with decision-making in the headquarters for incident management. This new solution as a system enhances the safety improvement of the NPP and contributes to develop the skills and abilities of the resources in the NPP. The system has three key features for supporting emergency situations: 'understanding the situation', 'planning the next action', and 'managing resources'. The system helps commanders and responders to grasp the whole situation and allows them to share information in real time to get a whole picture, and the system accumulates the data of the past events in the chronological order to understand correctly how they happened and plan the next action by using a knowledge database that MHI has been developed. If the unexpected event happens which are not in the incident scenario, the system provides support to formulate alternative strategies and measures. With this
Brown, Stephen B R E; Ridderinkhof, K Richard
Neuroeconomics refers to a combination of paradigms derived from neuroscience, psychology, and economics for the study of decision making and is an area that has received considerable scientific attention in the recent literature. Using realistic laboratory tasks, researchers seek to study the neurocognitive processes underlying economic decision making and outcome-based decision learning, as well as individual differences in these processes and the social and affective factors that modulate them. To this point, one question has remained largely unanswered: What happens to decision-making processes and their neural substrates during aging? After all, aging is associated with neurocognitive change, which may affect outcome-based decision making. In our study, we use the subjective expected utility model-a well-established decision-making model in economics-as a descriptive framework. After a short survey of the brain areas and neurotransmitter systems associated with outcome-based decision making-and of the effects of aging thereon-we review a number of decision-making studies. Their general data pattern indicates that the decision-making process is changed by age: The elderly perform less efficiently than younger participants, as demonstrated, for instance, by the smaller total rewards that the elderly acquire in lab tasks. These findings are accounted for in terms of age-related deficiencies in the probability and value parameters of the subjective expected utility model. Finally, we discuss some implications and suggestions for future research.
Osamor, Pauline E; Grady, Christine
Respect for autonomy is a key principle in bioethics. However, respecting autonomy in practice is complex because most people define themselves and make decisions influenced by a complex network of social relationships. The extent to which individual autonomy operates for each partner within the context of decision-making within marital or similar relationships is largely unexplored. This paper explores issues related to decision-making by couples (couples' joint decision-making) for health care and the circumstances under which such a practice should be respected as compatible with autonomous decision-making. We discuss the concept of autonomy as it applies to persons and to actions, human interdependency and gender roles in decision-making, the dynamics and outcomes of couples' joint decision-making, and the ethics of couples' joint decision-making. We believe that the extent to which couples' joint decision-making might be deemed ethically acceptable will vary depending on the context. Given that in many traditional marriages the woman is the less dominant partner, we consider a spectrum of scenarios of couples' joint decision-making about a woman's own health care that move from those that are acceptably autonomous to those that are not consistent with respecting the woman's autonomous decision-making. To the extent that there is evidence that both members of a couple understand a decision, intend it, and that neither completely controls the other, couples' joint decision-making should be viewed as consistent with the principle of respect for the woman's autonomy. At the other end of the spectrum are decisions made by the man without the woman's input, representing domination of one partner by the other. We recommend viewing the dynamics of couples' joint decision-making as existing on a continuum of degrees of autonomy. This continuum-based perspective implies that couples' joint decision-making should not be taken at face value but should be assessed against
Hong, Paul; Gorodzinsky, Ayala Y; Taylor, Benjamin A; Chorney, Jill MacLaren
To date, there has been little research on shared decision making and decisional outcomes in pediatric surgery. The objectives of this study were to describe the level of decisional conflict and decisional regret experienced by parents considering otoplasty for their children, and to determine if they are related to perceptions of shared decision making. Prospective cohort clinical study. Sixty-five consecutive parents of children who underwent surgical consultation for otoplasty were prospectively enrolled. Participants completed the Demographic Form, the Decisional Conflict Scale, and the Shared Decision-Making Questionnaire after the consultation visit. The consulting surgeons completed the physician version of the Shared Decision-Making Questionnaire. Six months after surgery, parents completed the Decisional Regret Scale. The median decisional conflict was 15.63; 21 (32.8%) parents scored 25 or above, a previously defined cutoff indicating clinically significant decisional conflict. Parent ratings of shared decision making and decisional conflict were significantly negatively correlated (P decision making and parental decisional conflict. Significant decisional regret was reported in two (3.2%) participants. Decisional regret and parent and physician ratings of shared decision making were both significantly negatively correlated (P = 0.044 and P = 0.001, respectively). Decisional regret and decisional conflict scores were significantly positively correlated (P = 0.001). Parent and physician ratings of shared decision making were correlated (intraclass correlation = 0.625, P making decisions about their child's elective surgical treatment. Fewer parents experienced significant decisional regret after the procedure. Parents who perceived themselves as being more involved in the decision making process reported less decisional conflict and decisional regret. Parents and physicians had varied perceptions of the degree of shared decision making. Future research
Lee, Victoria K; Harris, Lasana T
Social decision-making is often complex, requiring the decision-maker to make inferences of others' mental states in addition to engaging traditional decision-making processes like valuation and reward processing. A growing body of research in neuroeconomics has examined decision-making involving social and non-social stimuli to explore activity in brain regions such as the striatum and prefrontal cortex, largely ignoring the power of the social context. Perhaps more complex processes may influence decision-making in social vs. non-social contexts. Years of social psychology and social neuroscience research have documented a multitude of processes (e.g., mental state inferences, impression formation, spontaneous trait inferences) that occur upon viewing another person. These processes rely on a network of brain regions including medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC), superior temporal sulcus (STS), temporal parietal junction, and precuneus among others. Undoubtedly, these social cognition processes affect social decision-making since mental state inferences occur spontaneously and automatically. Few studies have looked at how these social inference processes affect decision-making in a social context despite the capability of these inferences to serve as predictions that can guide future decision-making. Here we review and integrate the person perception and decision-making literatures to understand how social cognition can inform the study of social decision-making in a way that is consistent with both literatures. We identify gaps in both literatures-while behavioral economics largely ignores social processes that spontaneously occur upon viewing another person, social psychology has largely failed to talk about the implications of social cognition processes in an economic decision-making context-and examine the benefits of integrating social psychological theory with behavioral economic theory.
McGuinness, Kevin M
Organized medicine (OM) is an institution built to defend the American health care system of the 20th century. The institutional structures that it employed, however, operated mechanically and independently of its practitioner base, which drew from physician and nonphysician health professions. This article suggests that OM's institutional structures were founded and defended by a "logic of confidence," which initially served as a buffer against external socioeconomic pressures. The institutional structures of OM came to be treated systemically as rules (e.g.,"Trust me, I'm a doctor" and "The doctor knows best"), biasing and guiding organizational decision making and activities. Such rules were inculcated through professional education and clinical practice and were promulgated to the public by OM's practitioner and consumer base. OM so effectively promoted its rules that they were installed as powerful myths in the American psyche. So powerful were these myths that even OM was prevented from updating its identity to match its changing socioeconomic context. Instead, OM compartmentalized and sequestered its operational components from the public and from one another, effectively decoupling its identity from its activities and its context. In this manner, OM maintained an outmoded status quo when confronted by changing socioeconomic circumstances. The author explains how OM's failure to adapt has impelled the strongest representatives of all health professions to resist top-down decoupling in favor of bottom-up identity maturation, applying a new "logic of appropriateness." The logic of appropriateness is offered as a framework to guard against biased decision making and to ensure that institutional and individual identity, context, and decision making are coordinated and relevant. A new, public health-led, American health system is described in which the family physician and family nurse practitioner co-lead primary care practice and in which professional
van den Berg, M.; Timmermans, D.R.M.; Knol, D.L.; van Eijk, J.T.; de Smit, D.J.; van Vugt, J.M.G.; van der Wal, G.H.
Objective: This study is aimed at enhancing understanding prenatal screening decision making through testing a hypothesized decision model based on decision theory and health behavior theory. Design: We obtained questionnaires from 1,666 pregnant women who were offered prenatal screening for Down's
decisions are made by a set of people in the organization ( = 3.28) and important suggestions are neglected by supervisors ... Also, decisions are taken to support ... top or middle level. By nature human being during his existence and by virtue of his instinct makes decisions for his survival. In other word, managers.
Bernacer, Javier; Balderas, Gloria; Martinez-Valbuena, Ivan; Pastor, Maria A; Murillo, Jose Ignacio
Newell & Shanks (N&S) carry out an extremely sharp and static distinction between conscious and unconscious decisions, ignoring a process that dynamically transfers decisions and actions between the conscious and unconscious domains of the mind: habitual decision making. We propose a new categorisation and discuss the main characteristics of this process from a philosophical and neuroscientific perspective.
Mow, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) offers a variety of models and analysis tools to help decision makers evaluate and make informed decisions about solar projects, policies, and programs. This fact sheet aims to help decision makers determine which NREL tool to use for a given solar project or policy question, depending on its scope.
Crow, Stephen M.; And Others
Linkages among gender, decision making, and values related to moral development and equity/equality are studied for 54 graduate and 186 undergraduate business school students (48 percent females) attending a Southern urban university. Results illustrate gender-related differences in value systems, weights of decision issues, and decisions. Future…
The discourse on child migration decision making tends to present children as vulnerable and without agency. This presupposes that decisions are often imposed on the individual child who only complies with decisions of adults. On the contrary, the process is complex and continuous, and can only be well understood ...
Zhang, Long; Dong, Yi; Ji, Yifu; Zhu, Chunyan; Yu, Fengqiong; Ma, Huijuan; Chen, Xingui; Wang, Kai
Evidence in the literature suggests that executive dysfunction is regarded as an endophenotype candidate for obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Decision making is an important domain of executive function. However, few studies that have investigated whether decision making is a potential endophenotype for OCD have produced inconsistent results. Differences in the findings across these studies may be attributed to several factors: different study materials, comorbidity, medication, etc. There are at least two types of decision making that differ mainly in the degree of uncertainty and how much useful information about consequences and their probabilities are provided to the decision maker: decision making under ambiguity and decision making under risk. The aim of the present study was to simultaneously examine decision making under ambiguity as assessed by the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and decision making under risk as measured by the Game of Dice Task (GDT) in OCD patients and their unaffected first-degree relative (UFDR) for the first time. The study analyzed 55 medication-naïve, non-depressed OCD patient probands, 55 UFDRs of the OCD patients and 55 healthy matched comparison subjects (CS) without a family history of OCD with the IGT, the GDT and a neuropsychological test battery. While the OCD patients and the UFDRs performed worse than the CS on the IGT, they were unimpaired on the GDT. Our study supports the claim that decision making under ambiguity differs from decision making under risk and suggests that dissociation of decision making under ambiguity and decision making under risk may qualify to be a neurocognitive endophenotypes for OCD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Chi, Winnie C; Wolff, Jennifer; Greer, Raquel; Dy, Sydney
Understanding individuals' preferences for participating in health care decisions is foundational to delivering person-centered care. We aimed to (1) explore preferences for health care decision making among older adults, and (2) identify multimorbidity profiles associated with preferring less active, ie, passive, participation among older US adults. Ours was a cross-sectional, nationally representative study of 2,017 National Health and Aging Trends Study respondents. Passive decision-making preference was defined as preferring to leave decisions to physicians. Multimorbidity profiles, based on 13 prevalent chronic conditions, were examined as (1) presence of 2 or more conditions, (2) a simple conditions count, and (3) a condition clusters count. Multiple logistic regression was used with adjustment for age, sex, education, English proficiency, and mobility limitation. Most older adults preferred to participate actively in making health care decisions. Older adults with 4 or more conditions, however, and those with multiple condition clusters are relatively less likely to prefer active decision making. Primary care physicians should initiate a shared decision-making process with older adults with 4 or more conditions or multiple condition clusters. Physicians should anticipate variation in decision-making preferences among older adults and adapt a decision-making process that suits individuals' preferences for participation to ensure person-centered care delivery. © 2017 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.
Jespersen, Kristina Risom
/exploration search behavior of decision-makers. In addition, overexploitation and overexploration in new product development decision-making is investigated through mediating effects of perceived information usefulness and applied performance criteria by decision-makers at gates. To this end a conceptual model...... of gate decision-making and information sources was developed across five generic stages (idea, concept, design, test, and commercialization). Our data was generated with a participatory agent-based simulation of NPD gate decision-points in the development process. The sample consists of 134 managers from...
Full Text Available The decisions made in the organization determine its success, therefore, conducting studies in the scope of decision-making seems important both for theory and practice. The aim of the studies was to identify the type of decision-making process in public medical entities with the use of typology developed by P. Nutt. For this purpose we used qualitative methods. Interviews with 8 directors of hospitals were conducted and the reconstruction was made on the basis of the decision-making process, which enabled the assignment of the model of decision-making process to the organization. The research indicated that four organizations use the historical decision-making model, three organizations represent the model of generating solutions, and one organization uses the model of available solutions.
Monahan, William W.; Johnson, Homer M.
This monograph provides guidelines to help those school districts considering a more decentralized form of management. The authors discuss the levels at which different types of decisions should be made, describe the changing nature of the educational environment, identify different centralization-decentralization models, and suggest a flexible…
Li, S.C.; Ridderinkhof, K.R.; Samanez-Larkin, G.R.
Learning to choose adaptively between different behavioral options in order to reach goals is a pervasive task in life for people of all ages. Individuals are often confronted with complex, uncertain situations that nonetheless require decisive actions that would facilitate the pursuit of short-term
Economists have been rather skeptical towards the use of subjective information. This thesis shows that this type of information can be relevant for the empirical explanation of economic decisions. Three examples of subjective information, which are time preference, income uncertainty, and risk
Black, Jay; Steele, Robert
Discusses ethics regarding the journalism and mass communications professoriate. Suggests a schema or audit to positively address such issues as accountability and loyalty, values, and principles. Offers eight questions for a personal ethics audit which attempt to join good intentions with good decisions, and shift the enterprise to a positive…
Corn is the most widely grown crop in the Americas, with annual production in the United States of approximately 332 million metric tons. Improved climate forecasts, together with climate-related decision tools for corn producers based on these improved forecasts, could substantially reduce uncertai...
Mancini, D.; Vaassen, E.H.J.; Dameri, R.P.
This book contains a collection of research papers on accounting information systems including their strategic role in decision processes, within and between companies. An accounting system is a complex system composed of a mix of strictly interrelated elements such as data, information, human
Filip, Florin Gheorghe; Ciurea, Cristian
This is a book about how management and control decisions are made by persons who collaborate and possibly use the support of an information system. The decision is the result of human conscious activities aiming at choosing a course of action for attaining a certain objective (or a set of objectives). The act of collaboration implies that several entities who work together and share responsibilities to jointly plan, implement and evaluate a program of activities to achieve the common goals. The book is intended to present a balanced view of the domain to include both well-established concepts and a selection of new results in the domains of methods and key technologies. It is meant to answer several questions, such as: a) “How are evolving the business models towards the ever more collaborative schemes?”; b) “What is the role of the decision-maker in the new context?” c) “What are the basic attributes and trends in the domain of decision-supporting information systems?”; d) “Which are the basic...
Providing insight and understanding of practical and methodological issues related to decision-making processes under uncertainty conditions in the service industries, this book integrates decision-making tools with real-world examples to present world-wide best practices as well as theoretical and applied strategies such as the use of hybrid and stochastic algorithms. It discusses emerging tendencies regarding decision-support systems and information systems to support decision-making in real scenarios and includes up-to-date research on how probabilistic algorithms and simulation-based appro
Bronner, Fred; de Hoog, Robert
In the last 20 years changes have taken place which have altered the decision-making process in families—family democracy is clearly in the ascendant. The family has evolved into what business research calls a decision-making unit. This general trend probably also has consequences for holiday
Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Dayan, Amira
The Career Decision-Making Profiles questionnaire (CDMP; Gati, Landman, Davidovitch, Asulin-Peretz, & Gadassi, 2010) uses a new model for characterizing the way individuals make decisions based on the simultaneous use of 11 dimensions. The present study investigated which pole of each dimension is more adaptive. Using the data of 383 young…
Ganske, Kathryn H.; Ashby, Jeffrey S.
This study investigated the relationship between perfectionism and career decision-making self-efficacy. Participants completed the Almost Perfect Scale-Revised (R. B. Slaney, K. G. Rice, M. Mobley, J. Trippi, & J. S. Ashby, 2001) and the Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy-Short Form (N. E. Betz, K. L. Klein, & K. M. Taylor, 1996). Adaptive…
Lizarraga, Maria Luisa Sanz De Acedo; Baquedano, Maria Teresa Sanz De Acedo; Oliver, Maria Soria; Closas, Antonio
The "Decision-Making Questionnaire" (DMQ) was developed and validated in order to examine the factors that affect decision making. The investigation was carried out with two samples, one of 170 participants and the other of 425 of both sexes. Each sample was divided into three age ranges: young students (18-25 years), adults (26-60…
Goudriaan, Anna E.; Grekin, Emily R.; Sher, Kenneth J.
Behavioral decision making, as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is found to be diminished in individuals with substance dependence and other types of disinhibitory psychopathology. However, little is known regarding the relation between heavy alcohol use and decision-making skills in young
Savage, Grant T.
Habermas's theory of dialogue was used to evaluate the process of decision making that occurred in a labor-management committee's meeting to discuss flextime. The study attempted to determine why, at that meeting, the committee's consensus process of decision making failed. W.R. Bion's theory of unconscious group motives was also used to…
Wilmar Schaufeli; Annet de Lange; Juhani Ilmarinen; Per Erik Solem; Trude Furunes; Reidar Mykletun; Astri Syse
The aim of this longitudinal qualitative interview study (3 waves of interviews) was to examine the nature of older workers’ late career decision-making processes, including the main drivers and obstacles for prolonging working life or retiring. Late career decision-making is regarded as a process
The significance of participatory decision-making has received world wide acclamation by management scholars. This study, therefore, focused on the nature of participation, pattern of participation and the appropriateness or otherwise of rational participatory decision--making processes in polytechnics in northern Nigeria.
Viewing a broad perspective, the literacy programmes should be supplemented with exploration and training in various psychological aspects, such as, intelligence, reasoning, decision making, identity needs, etc. This study aims at exploring rural and urban women\\'s decision-making and reasoning. In all, illiterate women ...
Philipov, D.; Liefbroer, A.C.; Klobas, J.E.
- Takes a new approach to understanding Europe’s fertility gap - Demonstrates how the macro-level environment affects micro-level decision-making - Provides new insights into how people make decisions about having children as well as how policies affect fertility This book provides new insights into
The phrase "data-based decision making" has been used so often in discussions about school improvement efforts that it has become almost a mantra. However, it's "how" data is used that really provides the critical link between practice and school improvement. "Data-Based Decision Making 2.0" is designed to help principals take on the role of…
Full Text Available Abstract Background Shared decision-making has been advocated; however there are relatively few studies on physician preferences for, and experiences of, different styles of clinical decision-making as most research has focused on patient preferences and experiences. The objectives of this study were to determine 1 physician preferences for different styles of clinical decision-making; 2 styles of clinical decision-making physicians perceive themselves as practicing; and 3 the congruence between preferred and perceived style. In addition we sought to determine physician perceptions of the availability of time in visits, and their role in encouraging patients to look for health information. Methods Cross-sectional survey of a nationally representative sample of U.S. physicians. Results 1,050 (53% response rate physicians responded to the survey. Of these, 780 (75% preferred to share decision-making with their patients, 142 (14% preferred paternalism, and 118 (11% preferred consumerism. 87% of physicians perceived themselves as practicing their preferred style. Physicians who preferred their patients to play an active role in decision-making were more likely to report encouraging patients to look for information, and to report having enough time in visits. Conclusion Physicians tend to perceive themselves as practicing their preferred role in clinical decision-making. The direction of the association cannot be inferred from these data; however, we suggest that interventions aimed at promoting shared decision-making need to target physicians as well as patients.
Findlay, Nora M.
Little research exists that examines the exercise of discretion by principals in their disciplinary decision making. This study sought to understand the application of values by principals as they engage in student disciplinary decision making within legally fixed parameters of their administrative discretion. This qualitative methodology used…
Results: The respondents' attitudes were generally positive to women's participation in decision-making. The locus of control for decision-making was commonly both husband and wife, rather than male or female dominated. Despite that, only 53.2% of males and 58.1% of females had actually discussed desired family size ...
Irfan Deli; Said Broumi; Mumtaz Ali
In this study, we introduce the concept of neutrosophic soft multi-set theory and study their properties and operations. Then, we give a decision making meth-ods for neutrosophic soft multi-set theory. Finally, an ap-plication of this method in decision making problems is presented.
Full Text Available In this study, we introduce the concept of neutrosophic soft multi-set theory and study their properties and operations. Then, we give a decision making methods for neutrosophic soft multi-set theory. Finally, an application of this method in decision making problems is presented.
... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Responsibility for making payment decisions. 404.2109 Section 404.2109 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION FEDERAL OLD-AGE... Provisions § 404.2109 Responsibility for making payment decisions. The Commissioner will decide— (a) Whether...
... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Responsibility for making payment decisions. 416.2209 Section 416.2209 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION SUPPLEMENTAL SECURITY... Provisions § 416.2209 Responsibility for making payment decisions. The Commissioner will decide: (a) Whether...
Antioco, M.; Moenaert, R.K.; Lindgreen, A.
The objective of this exploratory study is to add to our understanding of ongoing product design decision-making to reduce eventual decision-making bias. Six research questions are formulated with the aim to establish if and how functional membership and informal patterns of communication within an
Baker, Diane F.
Researchers in behavioral ethics seek to understand how individuals respond to the ethical dilemmas in their lives. In any given situation, multiple social and psychological variables interact to influence ethical decision making. The purpose of this article is to explore how one such variable, empathy, affects the ethical decision-making process…
Parker, Walter C.; Gehrke, Nathalie
Interactive decision making (IDM) refers to teachers' selection and rejection of alternative courses of action during instruction. Previous research indicates that teachers report making interactive decisions when their plans are disrupted. A study generated hypotheses about teachers' IDM using the grounded theory approach--an inductive system for…
VanSickle, Ronald L.
Maintains that clarifying and evaluating risks is an essential element of education in economic decision making. Shows how common business management concepts of risk and opportunity can be applied to personal economic decision making. Provides a scheme for estimating the risk involved in undertaking new opportunities. (JDH)
Ahmed, S.; Hansen, Claus Thorp
This paper describes research that combines the generic decision-making model of Hansen, together with design strategies employed by experienced engineering designers. The relationship between the six decision-making sub-activities and the eight design strategies are examined. By combining...
Lakomski, Gabriele; Evers, Colin W.
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to argue that emotion has a central role to play in rational decision making based on recent research in the neuroanatomy of emotion. As a result, traditional rational decision-making theories, including Herbert Simon's modified model of satisficing that sharply demarcates emotions and values from rationality…
Ma, I.; Lambregts-Rommelse, N.N.J.; Buitelaar, J.K.; Cillessen, A.H.N.; Scheres, A.P.J.
This study examined reward-related decision-making in children and adolescents with ADHD in a social context, using economic games. We furthermore examined the role of individual differences in reward-related decision-making, specifically, the roles of reward sensitivity and prosocial skills.
. There are calls to revisions ranging from the definition of risk and stretching to the use of risk analysis results in decision making. The talk will centre in answering the following questions: Why conventional approach to risk analysis is challenged? What are alternatives? How to operationalise the inclusion...... of epistemic uncertainty in risk analysis? How to make decisions based on risk analysis results?...
The study investigated gender and decision making pertaining to the control over ones body within established union in Nigeria. The study is a survey design with a sample of 500 married people who were randomly selected. A questionnaire titled Gender and Decision-Making Questionnaire (GDMG) was administered to ...
The decisions people make in the face of circumstances they encounter influence their life in favourable or unfavourable ways. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between sporting habits and decision making strategies among university students. The research involved 1298 students (526 women and 772 men) studying during 2011-2012…
Webb, G.A.M.; McLean, A.S.
In this report the arguments are developed for the existence of low levels of risk and dose which the individual does not take into account in his decision making, i.e. which are 'insignificant'. A system is proposed for ignoring these insignificant doses in calculating collective doses for use in practical decision making. (author)
Vennum, Amber; Fincham, Frank D.
Romantic relationships among young adults are rich with ambiguity and without a clear, universal progression emphasizing the need for active decision making. Lack of active decision making in romantic relationships can lead to increases in constraints (e.g. pregnancy, shared living space or finances) that promote the continuation of relationships…
... that maternal and paternal authoritative parenting, vigilant decision making and often engagement in healthy lifestyle behaviours were prevalent for adolescents in rural South Africa. The results furthermore suggest that there were no significant main effects of family structure on perceived parenting styles, decision making ...
Philipov, D.; Liefbroer, A.C.; Klobas, J.
This book provides new insights into the significant gap that currently exists between desired and actual fertility in Europe. It examines how people make decisions about having children and demonstrates how the macro-level environment affects micro-level decision-making. Written by an international
Philipov, D.; Klobas, J.; Liefbroer, A.C.; Philipov, D.; Liefbroer, A.C.; Klobas, J.E.
This book provides new insights into the significant gap that currently exists between desired and actual fertility in Europe. It examines how people make decisions about having children and demonstrates how the macro-level environment affects micro-level decision-making. Written by an international
fashion-conscious and perfectionist consumers than males. Chen et al. (2012) also found differences between male and females decision- making styles of Taiwanese and American consumers across various product categories. Mitchell and Walsh (2004) found only four common CSI decision-making styles in males.
Daylamani-Zad, Damon; Angelides, Marios C.; Agius, Harry
This paper proposes Lu-Lu as an add-on architecture to open MMOGs and social network games, which has been developed to utilise a key set of ingredients that underline collaborative decision making games as reported within the research literature: personalisation, team matching, non-optimal decision making, leading, decisiveness index, scoring, levelling, and multiple stages. The implementation of Lu-Lu is demonstrated as an add-on to the classic supply chain beer game, including customisatio...
Bravo, Paulina; Escuela de Enfermería, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Chile. School of Medicine, Cardiff University. Reino Unido. Enfermera, doctora en Salud Pública.; Contreras, Aixa; Escuela de Enfermería, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Chile. enfermera matrona, magister en Psicología Social Comunitaria.; Perestelo-Pérez, Lilisbeth; Servicio de Evaluación del Servicio Canario de la Salud, Red de Investigación en Servicios de Salud en Enfermedades Crónicas (REDISSEC). España. psicóloga, doctora en Psicología Clínica y de la Salud.; Pérez-Ramos, Jeanette; Fundación Canaria de Investigación y Salud (FUNCIS). España. psicóloga.; Málaga, Germán; Conocimiento y Evidencia (CONEVID), Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia. Lima, Perú. médico internista, magister en Medicina.
The healthcare model is shifting from a paternalistic towards a more inclusive and participative approach, such as shared decision making (SDM). SDM considers patients as autonomous and responsible agents. SDM is a therapeutic approach where healthcare providers and patients share the best evidence available to make a decision according to the values and preferences of the patient. Decision aids are tools that can facilitate this information exchange. These tools help patients to increase kno...
HOWARD VAN AUKEN; KUI YANG
With a sample of 46 Chinese small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), this study examines factors that might affect firms' use of financial statements to make decisions. Financial statements contain insightful information about potential risk and return implications of various decisions. A logit analysis shows that owners of Chinese SMEs use financial statements to make decisions according to the frequency of available financial statement information and their ability to interpret the informa...
Flannery, J; Thomas, J
This article describes the conceptual framework, design, implementation, and evaluation of a series of workshops for rehabilitation nurses in which the Decision Profile, a practical model for clinical decision making, was used. Evaluations confirmed that the approach was exceptionally effective, not only in engaging the audience and presenting information that would assist in continued professional development, but also in validating and supporting the participants' intuitive processes and decision-making patterns through analyses presented by experts.
Carver, Jeffrey S.
The instructional decision-making processes of high school science teachers have not been well established in the literature. Several models for decision-making do exist in other teaching disciplines, business, computer game programming, nursing, and some fields of science. A model that incorporates differences in science teaching that is consistent with constructivist theory as opposed to conventional science teaching is useful in the current climate of standards-based instruction that includes an inquiry-based approach to teaching science. This study focuses on three aspects of the decision-making process. First, it defines what factors, both internal and external, influence high school science teacher decision-making. Second, those factors are analyzed further to determine what instructional decision-making processes are articulated or demonstrated by the participants. Third, by analyzing the types of decisions that are made in the classroom, the classroom learning environments established as a result of those instructional decisions are studied for similarities and differences between conventional and constructivist models. While the decision-making process for each of these teachers was not clearly articulated by the teachers themselves, the patterns that establish the process were clearly exhibited by the teachers. It was also clear that the classroom learning environments that were established were, at least in part, established as a result of the instructional decisions that were made in planning and implementation of instruction. Patterns of instructional decision-making were different for each teacher as a result of primary instructional goals that were different for each teacher. There were similarities between teachers who exhibited more constructivist epistemological tendencies as well as similarities between teachers who exhibited a more conventional epistemology. While the decisions that will result from these two camps may be different, the six step
Smith, J. B.; Vogel, J. M.
Decision making is often portrayed as a linear process that assumes scientific knowledge is a necessary precursor to effective policy and is used directly in policy making. Yet, in practice, the use of scientific information in decision making is more complex than the linear model implies. The use of climate projections in adaptation decision making is a case in point. This paper briefly reviews efforts by some decision makers to understand climate change risks and to apply this knowledge when making decisions on management of climate sensitive resources and infrastructure . In general, and in spite of extensive efforts to study climate change at the regional and local scale to support decision making, few decisions outside of adapting to sea level rise appear to directly apply to climate change projections. A number of U.S. municipalities and states, including Seattle, New York City, Phoenix, and the States of California and Washington, have used climate change projections to assess their vulnerability to various climate change impacts. Some adaptation decisions have been made based on projections of sea level rise, such as change in location of infrastructure. This may be because a future rise is sea level is virtually certain. In contrast, decision making on precipitation has been more limited, even where there is consensus on likely changes in sign of the variable. Nonetheless, decision makers are adopting strategies that can be justified based on current climate and climate variability and that also reduce risks to climate change. A key question for the scientific community is whether improved projections will add value to decision making. For example, it remains unclear how higher-resolution projections can change decision making as long as the sign and magnitude of projections across climate models and downscaling techniques retains a wide range of uncertainty. It is also unclear whether even better information on the sign and magnitude of change would
Yukalov, V. I.; Sornette, D.
The influence of additional information on the decision making of agents, who are interacting members of a society, is analyzed within the mathematical framework based on the use of quantum probabilities. The introduction of social interactions, which influence the decisions of individual agents, leads to a generalization of the quantum decision theory developed earlier by the authors for separate individuals. The generalized approach is free of the standard paradoxes of classical decision th...
Frydman, Cary; Camerer, Colin F.
Financial decisions are among the most important life-shaping decisions that people make. We review facts about financial decisions and what cognitive and neural processes influence them. Because of cognitive constraints and a low average level of financial literacy, many household decisions violate sound financial principles. Households typically have underdiversified stock holdings and low retirement savings rates. Investors overextrapolate from past returns and trade too often. Even top co...
The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.
The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.
What distinguishes a competent decision maker and how should the issue of decision quality be approached in a real-life context? These questions were explored in three studies. In Study 1, using a web-based questionnaire and targeting a community sample, we investigated the relationships between objective and subjective indicators of real-life decision-making success. In Study 2 and 3, targeting two different samples of professionals, we explored if the prevalent cognitively oriented definition of decision-making competence could be beneficially expanded by adding aspects of competence in terms of social skills and time-approach. The predictive power for each of these three aspects of decision-making competence was explored for different indicators of real-life decision-making success. Overall, our results suggest that research on decision-making competence would benefit by expanding the definition of competence, by including decision-related abilities in terms of social skills and time-approach. Finally, the results also indicate that individual differences in real-life decision-making success profitably can be approached and measured by different criteria. PMID:26545239
We propose that individuals practice "mental depreciation," that is, they implicitly spread the fixed costs of their expenses over time or use. Two studies explore how people spread fixed costs on durable goods. A third study shows that depreciation can lead to two distinct errors in marginal decisions: First, people sometimes invest too much effort to get their money's worth from an expense (e.g., they may use a product a lot to spread the fixed expense across more uses). Second, people sometimes invest too little effort to get their money's worth: When people add a portion of the fixed cost to the current costs, their perceived marginal (i.e., incremental) costs exceed their true marginal costs. In response, they may stop investing because their perceived costs surpass the marginal benefits they are receiving. The latter effect is supported by two field studies that explore real board plan decisions by university students.
Dahl Steffensen, Karina; Hjelholt Baker, Vibe; Vinter, Mette Marianne
national plan for cancer treatment. What about tools for patient decision support? Development of evidence-based patient decision aids (PDAs) are still at an early stage in Denmark, but recent national and private funding has helped push the field forward. Furthermore, a few stakeholders have started...... professionals have received systematic training, and there is little knowledge about implementation and sustainability of SDM in daily clinical practice. What does the future look like for SDM in Denmark? Future progress will depend on the extent to which SDM is systematically integrated in the daily routines...... of health care professionals and in patient trajectories across treatment courses. The Danish health care system needs to invest further in training and to start addressing the challenges on the organisational and system level, which affect implementation....
Full Text Available Control over the company, an objective that any manager wants, can only be exercised on the basis of real and complex business data. For this, a higher level of application is required, with Business Intelligence applications that provide information that no one else can offer faster. Winning time can be used to identify other issues related to available information or activities that add value to the company. After all, management time is a decision, and the decision is valuable only if it occurs at the right time. In this article I presented the benefits of implementing a business intelligence solution in a company, as well as how to design analytical reports using the QlikView application.
qualifying and limiting remarks need to be stated. First, comand and control (C 2 ) can be dichotomized into strategic and tactical components. In...the elements and subelements of t Tactical Air Control System or the communications network in which the - embedded . The aircraft which are used for air...artifact which could falsely discriminate effective from ineffective decision makers: amount of knowledge. By embedding the data necessary for problem
Ofstad, Eirik H; Frich, Jan C; Schei, Edvin; Frankel, Richard M; Gulbrandsen, Pål
To identify and characterize physicians' statements that contained evidence of clinically relevant decisions in encounters with patients in different hospital settings. Qualitative analysis of 50 videotaped encounters from wards, the emergency room (ER) and outpatient clinics in a department of internal medicine at a Norwegian university hospital. Clinical decisions could be grouped in a temporal order: decisions which had already been made, and were brought into the encounter by the physician (preformed decisions), decisions made in the present (here-and-now decisions), and decisions prescribing future actions given a certain course of events (conditional decisions). Preformed decisions were a hallmark in the ward and conditional decisions a main feature of ER encounters. Clinical decisions related to a patient-physician encounter spanned a time frame exceeding the duration of the encounter. While a distribution of decisions over time and space fosters sharing and dilution of responsibility between providers, it makes the decision making process hard to access for patients. In order to plan when and how to involve patients in decisions, physicians need increased awareness of when clinical decisions are made, who usually makes them, and who should make them. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sells, Sarah N.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.
Good decision-making is essential to conserving wildlife populations. Although there may be multiple ways to address a problem, perfect solutions rarely exist. Managers are therefore tasked with identifying decisions that will best achieve desired outcomes. Structured decision making (SDM) is a method of decision analysis used to identify the most effective, efficient, and realistic decisions while accounting for values and priorities of the decision maker. The stepwise process includes identifying the management problem, defining objectives for solving the problem, developing alternative approaches to achieve the objectives, and formally evaluating which alternative is most likely to accomplish the objectives. The SDM process can be more effective than informal decision-making because it provides a transparent way to quantitatively evaluate decisions for addressing multiple management objectives while incorporating science, uncertainty, and risk tolerance. To illustrate the application of this process to a management need, we present an SDM-based decision tool developed to identify optimal decisions for proactively managing risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in Montana. Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for managers due to long-term impacts to herds, epistemic uncertainty in timing and location of future epizootics, and consequent difficulty knowing how or when to manage risk. The decision tool facilitates analysis of alternative decisions for how to manage herds based on predictions from a risk model, herd-specific objectives, and predicted costs and benefits of each alternative. Decision analyses for 2 example herds revealed that meeting management objectives necessitates specific approaches unique to each herd. The analyses showed how and under what circumstances the alternatives are optimal compared to other approaches and current management. Managers can be confident that these decisions are effective, efficient, and
White, M. J.
The possible impact on public policy and organizational decision making of operations research/management science (OR/MS) is discussed. Criticisms based on the assumption that OR/MS will have influence on decision making and criticisms based on the assumption that it will have no influence are described. New directions in the analysis of analysis and in thinking about policy making are also considered.
Skiltere, D.; Bausova, I.
The purpose of the research is to demonstrate possibilities of simulation games in education process; in managerial ability compliance tests; for training of managers in small and middle business; in decision-making. The use of simulation games in decision making gives an opportunity to prevent these drawbacks, although this kind of the use of the games is not the most complicated, labour–consuming and eventually the most expensive.
Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi
River flood events often cause large economic damages and casualties requiring stakeholders to manage flood risk. In flood prone areas, flood risk management can be achieved through a series hierarchically integrated protection structures, which together form a hierarchical flood protection system...... and compare the benefit of large upstream protection structures and local downstream protection structures in regard to epistemic uncertainty parameters. Results suggest that epistemic uncertainty influences the outcome of the decision model and that, depending on the magnitude of epistemic uncertainty...... the hierarchical level on which risk reducing measures are most beneficial might change....
Biscarini, C.; di Francesco, S.; Manciola, P.
The focus of the present document is on specific decision-making aspects of flood risk analysis. A flood is the result of runoff from rainfall in quantities too great to be confined in the low-water channels of streams. Little can be done to prevent a major flood, but we may be able to minimize damage within the flood plain of the river. This broad definition encompasses many possible mitigation measures. Floodplain management considers the integrated view of all engineering, nonstructural, and administrative measures for managing (minimizing) losses due to flooding on a comprehensive scale. The structural measures are the flood-control facilities designed according to flood characteristics and they include reservoirs, diversions, levees or dikes, and channel modifications. Flood-control measures that modify the damage susceptibility of floodplains are usually referred to as nonstructural measures and may require minor engineering works. On the other hand, those measures designed to modify the damage potential of permanent facilities are called non-structural and allow reducing potential damage during a flood event. Technical information is required to support the tasks of problem definition, plan formulation, and plan evaluation. The specific information needed and the related level of detail are dependent on the nature of the problem, the potential solutions, and the sensitivity of the findings to the basic information. Actions performed to set up and lay out the study are preliminary to the detailed analysis. They include: defining the study scope and detail, the field data collection, a review of previous studies and reports, and the assembly of needed maps and surveys. Risk analysis can be viewed as having many components: risk assessment, risk communication and risk management. Risk assessment comprises an analysis of the technical aspects of the problem, risk communication deals with conveying the information and risk management involves the decision process
Bitzer, Sebastian; Bruineberg, Jelle; Kiebel, Stefan J.
Even for simple perceptual decisions, the mechanisms that the brain employs are still under debate. Although current consensus states that the brain accumulates evidence extracted from noisy sensory information, open questions remain about how this simple model relates to other perceptual phenomena such as flexibility in decisions, decision-dependent modulation of sensory gain, or confidence about a decision. We propose a novel approach of how perceptual decisions are made by combining two influential formalisms into a new model. Specifically, we embed an attractor model of decision making into a probabilistic framework that models decision making as Bayesian inference. We show that the new model can explain decision making behaviour by fitting it to experimental data. In addition, the new model combines for the first time three important features: First, the model can update decisions in response to switches in the underlying stimulus. Second, the probabilistic formulation accounts for top-down effects that may explain recent experimental findings of decision-related gain modulation of sensory neurons. Finally, the model computes an explicit measure of confidence which we relate to recent experimental evidence for confidence computations in perceptual decision tasks. PMID:26267143
Gershow, Marc; Gepner, Ruben; Wolk, Jason; Wadekar, Digvijay
Drosophila larvae navigate their environments using a biased random walk strategy. A key component of this strategy is the decision to initiate a turn (change direction) in response to declining conditions. We modeled this decision as the output of a Linear-Nonlinear-Poisson cascade and used reverse correlation with visual and fictive olfactory stimuli to find the parameters of this model. Because the larva responds to changes in stimulus intensity, we used stimuli with uncorrelated normally distributed intensity derivatives, i.e. Brownian processes, and took the stimulus derivative as the input to our LNP cascade. In this way, we were able to present stimuli with 0 mean and controlled variance. We found that the nonlinear rate function depended on the variance in the stimulus input, allowing larvae to respond more strongly to small changes in low-noise compared to high-noise environments. We measured the rate at which the larva adapted its behavior following changes in stimulus variance, and found that larvae adapted more quickly to increases in variance than to decreases, consistent with the behavior of an optimal Bayes estimator. Supported by NIH Grant 1DP2EB022359 and NSF Grant PHY-1455015.
Full Text Available Difficulty making decisions is one of the symptoms of the depressive illness. Previous research suggests that depressed individuals may make decisions that differ from those made by the non-depressed, and that they use sub-optimal decision-making strategies. For this study we constructed an instrument that aims to measure a variety of decision-making styles as well as the respondent's view of him or herself as a decision-maker (decisional self-esteem. These styles and estimates of decisional self-esteem were then related to depressive symptoms. Depressive symptomatology correlated negatively with perception of self as a decision-maker. Those with higher depression severity scores characterized themselves as being more anxious about decisions, and more likely to procrastinate. They also reported using fewer productive decision-making strategies, depending more on other people for help with decisions, and relying less on their own intuitions when making decisions. Further research is needed to determine the extent to which these decision-making styles are antecedents to depressive symptomatology or are instead products of, or aspects of, the phenomenology associated with depression.
United States. Coast Guard. Risk based decision-making guidelines
... original content in order to make this product more generically applicable and less Coast Guard specific. h s k assessment and risk management are important topics in industry and government. Because of limited resources and increasing demands for services, most organizations simply cannot continue business as usual. Even if resources are not dec...
Eroğlu Başak; Özkan Zekiye; Eroğlu Arif Kaan; Bilgin Şakire
The aim of this study is to examine the self-esteem in decision making and decision-making styles of orienteering athletes in terms of different variables. 157 male and 43 female orienteering athletes, making a total of 200 athletes that joined the 3rd Level of Turkey Championship in 2015 have participated in this study which is in a survey model. The data collection tools were the Melbourne Decision-making. Quastionnaire I-II and the Personal Information Form which were adapted into Turkish ...
Costa, Albert; Foucart, Alice; Arnon, Inbal; Aparici, Melina; Apesteguia, Jose
In this article, we assess to what extent decision making is affected by the language in which a given problem is presented (native vs. foreign). In particular, we aim to ask whether the impact of various heuristic biases in decision making is diminished when the problems are presented in a foreign language. To this end, we report four main studies in which more than 700 participants were tested on different types of individual decision making problems. In the first study, we replicated Keysar et al.'s (2012) recent observation regarding the foreign language effect on framing effects related to loss aversion. In the second section, we assessed whether the foreign language effect is present in other types of framing problems that involve psychological accounting biases rather than gain/loss dichotomies. In the third section, we studied the foreign language effect in several key aspects of the theory of decision making under risk and uncertainty. In the fourth study, we assessed the presence of a foreign language effect in the cognitive reflection test, a test that includes logical problems that do not carry emotional connotations. The absence of such an effect in this test suggests that foreign language leads to a reduction of heuristic biases in decision making across a range of decision making situations and provide also some evidence about the boundaries of the phenomenon. We explore several potential factors that may underlie the foreign language effect in decision making. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Woda, Aimee; Hansen, Jamie; Paquette, Mary; Topp, Robert
An emerging nursing education trend is to utilize simulated learning experiences as a means to optimize competency and decision making skills. The purpose of this study was to examine differences in students' perception of clinical decision making and clinical decision making-related self-confidence and anxiety based on the sequence (order) in which they participated in a block of simulated versus hospital-based learning experiences. A quasi-experimental crossover design was used. Between and within group differences were found relative to self-confidence with the decision making process. When comparing groups, at baseline the simulation followed by hospital group had significantly higher self-confidence scores, however, at 14-weeks both groups were not significantly different. Significant within group differences were found in the simulation followed by hospital group only, demonstrating a significant decrease in clinical decision making related anxiety across the semester. Finally, there were no significant difference in; perceived clinical decision making within or between the groups at the two measurement points. Preliminary findings suggest that simulated learning experiences can be offered with alternating sequences without impacting the process, anxiety or confidence with clinical decision making. This study provides beginning evidence to guide curriculum development and allow flexibility based on student needs and available resources. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Mental health (MH) triage is a specialist area of clinical nursing practice that involves complex decision making. The discussion in this article draws on the findings of a Ph.D. study that involved a statewide investigation of the scope of MH triage nursing practice in Victoria, Australia. Although the original Ph.D. study investigated a number of core practices in MH triage, the focus of the discussion in this article is specifically on the findings related to clinical decision making in MH triage, which have not previously been published. The study employed an exploratory descriptive research design that used mixed data collection methods including a survey questionnaire (n = 139) and semistructured interviews (n = 21). The study findings related to decision making revealed a lack of empirically tested evidence-based decision-making frameworks currently in use to support MH triage nursing practice. MH triage clinicians in Australia rely heavily on clinical experience to underpin decision making and have little of knowledge of theoretical models for practice, such as methodologies for rating urgency. A key recommendation arising from the study is the need to develop evidence-based decision-making frameworks such as clinical guidelines to inform and support MH triage clinical decision making.
Full Text Available The ubiquitous and intense nature of stress responses necessitate that we understand how they affect decision-making. Despite a number of studies examining risky decision-making under stress, it is as yet unclear whether and in what way stress alters the underlying processes that shape our choices. This is in part because previous studies have not separated and quantified dissociable valuation and decision-making processes that can affect choices of risky options, including risk attitudes, loss aversion, and choice consistency, among others. Here, in a large, fully-crossed two-day within-subjects design, we examined how acute stress alters risky decision-making. On each day, 120 participants completed either the cold pressor test or a control manipulation with equal probability, followed by a risky decision-making task. Stress responses were assessed with salivary cortisol. We fit an econometric model to choices that dissociated risk attitudes, loss aversion, and choice consistency using hierarchical Bayesian techniques to both pool data and allow heterogeneity in decision-making. Acute stress was found to have no effect on risk attitudes, loss aversion, or choice consistency, though participants did become more loss averse and more consistent on the second day relative to the first. In the context of an inconsistent previous literature on risk and acute stress, our findings provide strong and specific evidence that acute stress does not affect risk attitudes, loss aversion, or consistency in risky monetary decision-making.
Learmonth Ian D
Full Text Available Abstract Background Total joint replacement (TJR of the hip or knee for osteoarthritis is among the most common elective surgical procedures. There is some inequity in provision of TJR. How decisions are made about who will have surgery may contribute to disparities in provision. The model of shared decision-making between patients and clinicians is advocated as an ideal by national bodies and guidelines. However, we do not know what happens within orthopaedic practice and whether this reflects the shared model. Our study examined how decisions are made about TJR in orthopaedic consultations. Methods The study used a qualitative research design comprising semi-structured interviews and observations. Participants were recruited from three hospital sites and provided their time free of charge. Seven clinicians involved in decision-making about TJR were approached to take part in the study, and six agreed to do so. Seventy-seven patients due to see these clinicians about TJR were approached to take part and 26 agreed to do so. The patients' outpatient appointments ('consultations' were observed and audio-recorded. Subsequent interviews with patients and clinicians examined decisions that were made at the appointments. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. Results Clinical and lifestyle factors were central components of the decision-making process. In addition, the roles that patients assigned to clinicians were key, as were communication styles. Patients saw clinicians as occupying expert roles and they deferred to clinicians' expertise. There was evidence that patients modified their behaviour within consultations to complement that of clinicians. Clinicians acknowledged the complexity of decision-making and provided descriptions of their own decision-making and communication styles. Patients and clinicians were aware of the use of clinical and lifestyle factors in decision-making and agreed in their description of clinicians' styles
Giagkiozis, Ioannis; Fleming, Peter J
The set of available multi-objective optimisation algorithms continues to grow. This fact can be partially attributed to their widespread use and applicability. However, this increase also suggests several issues remain to be addressed satisfactorily. One such issue is the diversity and the number of solutions available to the decision maker (DM). Even for algorithms very well suited for a particular problem, it is difficult-mainly due to the computational cost-to use a population large enough to ensure the likelihood of obtaining a solution close to the DM's preferences. In this paper we present a novel methodology that produces additional Pareto optimal solutions from a Pareto optimal set obtained at the end run of any multi-objective optimisation algorithm for two-objective and three-objective problem instances.
Full Text Available ESPON ATTREG project aims to investigate the motivation and behaviour of migration flows and daily commuting of students, tourists, aging population migrating to their secondary homes, students and other “part time” commuters – but especially behaviour of human resources in gross migrations and daily commuting – between regions. One of the key elements of the cohesion policy of the European Commission is the contribution of the development of new transport infrastructure to regional economic development. Extensive spending has taken place under ERDF, Cohesion Fund and ISPA to reduce disparities among regions. One of the prominent initiatives in the European Union in this respect is the development of the Trans-European transport networks (TEN-T, where also investments in Slovenian networks took place among priority list, which is based on the accessibility index value. In the case study of Slovenia decision support system is suggested for better forecasting the results of investments.
Full Text Available Projections on the profitability of an entity is a prerequisite impact assessment of implementing various management strategies. The literature did not include a model sensitivity analysis in terms of profit margin of safety modification and safety coefficient. This article aims to explicit solutions for identifying the factors that influence the sensitivity of profit, the proposed analytical models to change the margin of safety (physical and value and coefficient of safety. The model allows the determination of limits that can increase or decrease sales costs so that the company remains profitable, ie to be able to maintain an adequate level of profit. This analysis allows knowing the influence of each factor in the evolution of the profitability of the entity, allowing managers to adopt the right decisions based on the importance of the influence of the analysis results of the entity. To facilitate understanding of the proposed analytical model is presented a case study.
Peeters, Suzanne Y G; Hoek, Amber E; Mollink, Susan M; Huff, J Stephen
Syncope is a common occurrence in the emergency department, accounting for approximately 1% to 3% of presentations. Syncope is best defined as a brief loss of consciousness and postural tone followed by spontaneous and complete recovery. The spectrum of etiologies ranges from benign to life threatening, and a structured approach to evaluating these patients is key to providing care that is thorough, yet cost-effective. This issue reviews the most relevant evidence for managing and risk stratifying the syncope patient, beginning with a focused history, physical examination, electrocardiogram, and tailored diagnostic testing. Several risk stratification decision rules are compared for performance in various scenarios, including how age and associated comorbidities may predict short-term and long-term adverse events. An algorithm for structured, evidence-based care of the syncope patient is included to ensure that patients requiring hospitalization are managed appropriately and those with benign causes are discharged safely.
Linkov, Igor; Satterstrom, F Kyle; Corey, Lisa M
Current nanomaterial research is focused on the medical applications of nanotechnology, whereas side effects associated with nanotechnology use, especially the environmental impacts, are not taken into consideration during the engineering process. Nanomedical users and developers are faced with the challenge of balancing the medical and societal benefits and risks associated with nanotechnology. The adequacy of available tools, such as physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling or predictive structure-activity relationships, in assessing the toxicity and risk associated with specific nanomaterials is unknown. Successful development of future nanomedical devices and pharmaceuticals thus requires a consolidated information base to select the optimal nanomaterial in a given situation--understanding the toxicology and potential side effects associated with candidate materials for medical applications, understanding product life cycle, and communicating effectively with personnel, stakeholders, and regulators. This can be achieved through an innovative combination of toxicology, risk assessment modeling, and tools developed in the field of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA).
Oswalt, Sara B.
Sexual health education often focuses on prevention of sexually transmitted infections and unintended pregnancies, but the decision to engage in sexual activity is equally important. This cross-sectional study examined the decisions of college students (n = 422) to engage in oral sex, vaginal sex, and other sexual behaviors. Regression analyses…
Allen, Jennifer D; Othus, Megan K D; Shelton, Rachel C; Li, Yi; Norman, Nancy; Tom, Laura; del Carmen, Marcela G
Prophylactic human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are available, but uptake is suboptimal. Information on factors influencing parental decisions regarding vaccination will facilitate the development of successful interventions. Parents of girls ages 9 to 17 years (n = 476; cooperation rate = 67%) from a panel of U.S. households completed online surveys between September 2007 and January 2008, documenting vaccine knowledge, attitudes, and intentions. Among those aware of the vaccine, 19% had already vaccinated their daughter(s), 34% intended to, 24% were undecided, and 24% had decided against vaccination. Awareness of HPV was high but knowledge levels were suboptimal (mean 72%, SEM 0.8%). Black and Hispanic parents were significantly less likely to be aware of the vaccine compared with White parents. In multivariate analyses, compared with parents who opposed vaccination, those who had already vaccinated their daughter(s) or who intended to do so had more positive attitudes, reported fewer barriers, and were more likely to perceive that family and friends would endorse vaccination. They also reported higher levels of trust in pharmaceutical companies that produce the vaccine. Despite limited knowledge, most parents had decided to vaccinate their daughter(s). Given evidence of diminished access to information among Black and Hispanic parents, programs should focus on reaching these groups. Interventions should address parental concerns about behavioral consequences, reduce structural barriers, and promote the perception that vaccination is endorsed by significant others. Moreover, interventions may need to address mistrust of pharmaceutical companies. IMPACT STATEMENT: This study documents factors associated with parental decisions about HPV vaccination for their daughter(s) and provides direction for intervention development. (c)2010 AACR.
The Declaration of Helsinki requires that health care research takes place with the informed consent of those who participate in the study. This approach upholds the autonomy of the participants, but restricts research to subjects who have decision-making capacity. The Mental Capacity Act 2005 introduced safeguards that enable researchers to investigate the care and treatment of people with incapacity, while protecting this vulnerable patient group. These safeguards allow people who lack decision-making capacity to benefit from research findings. In this article, Richard Griffith outlines the requirements that must be met when district nurses conduct research on subjects who lack decision-making capacity.
Full Text Available Similar to intelligent multicellular neural networks controlling human brains, even single cells, surprisingly, are able to make intelligent decisions to classify several external stimuli or to associate them. This happens because of the fact that gene regulatory networks can perform as perceptrons, simple intelligent schemes known from studies on Artificial Intelligence. We study the role of genetic noise in intelligent decision making at the genetic level and show that noise can play a constructive role helping cells to make a proper decision. We show this using the example of a simple genetic classifier able to classify two external stimuli.
Aberegg, Scott K; Terry, Peter B
Widespread disparities in US healthcare have been documented with attendant speculation about their causes, including the potential role of the physician as a healthcare decision-maker. However, the current evidence on physician decision-making is inadequate to draw firm conclusions on how it relates to healthcare inequalities. In this article, we review the available evidence on physician decision-making as it relates to healthcare disparities, with an emphasis on its shortcomings, discuss potential sources of bias, including interpersonal factors and physician preferences, and make suggestions for further research in this area.
Zhao, Y; Kang, J; Wright, D K
Human modelling is an interdisciplinary research field. The topic, emotion-affected decision making, was originally a cognitive psychology issue, but is now recognized as an important research direction for both computer science and biomedical modelling. The main aim of this paper is to attempt to bridge the gap between psychology and bioengineering in emotion-affected decision making. The work is based on Ortony's theory of emotions and bounded rationality theory, and attempts to connect the emotion process with decision making. A computational emotion model is proposed, and the initial framework of this model in virtual human simulation within the platform of Virtools is presented.
The author reports a project research which aimed at identifying cognitive skills required for severe accident management. It is based on an analytical model of decision making for severe accident conditions. Moreover, scenarios were developed to reveal specific decision making difficulties and to test cognitive skills associated with each of the model's elements. The model used to identify cognitive skills comprised six general processes to describe decision-making performance: monitor/detect, interpret current state, determine implications, plan, control, feedback. For each of these processes, situational factors, cognitive limitations and biases, individual cognitive skills and team cognitive skills have been identified
Full Text Available Yong Hui Nies,1 Farida Islahudin,1 Wei Wen Chong,1 Norlia Abdullah,2 Fuad Ismail,3 Ros Suzanna Ahmad Bustamam,4 Yoke Fui Wong,5 JJ Saladina,2 Noraida Mohamed Shah1 1Faculty of Pharmacy, 2Department of Surgery, 3Department of Radiotherapy and Oncology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Medical Centre, 4Department of Radiotherapy and Oncology, Hospital Kuala Lumpur, Kuala Lumpur, 5Department of Radiotherapy and Oncology, National Cancer Institute, Putrajaya, Malaysia Purpose: This study investigated breast cancer patients’ involvement level in the treatment decision-making process and the concordance between patients’ and physician’s perspectives in decision-making. Participants and methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted involving physicians and newly diagnosed breast cancer patients from three public/teaching hospitals in Malaysia. The Control Preference Scale (CPS was administered to patients and physicians, and the Krantz Health Opinion Survey (KHOS was completed by the patients alone. Binary logistic regression was used to determine the association between sociodemographic characteristics, the patients’ involvement in treatment decision-making, and patients’ preference for behavioral involvement and information related to their disease. Results: The majority of patients preferred to share decision-making with their physicians (47.5%, while the second largest group preferred being passive (42.6% and a small number preferred being active (9.8%. However, the physicians perceived that the majority of patients preferred active decision-making (56.9%, followed by those who desired shared decision-making (32.8%, and those who preferred passive decision-making (10.3%. The overall concordance was 26.5% (54 of 204 patient–physician dyads. The median of preference for information score and behavioral involvement score was 4 (interquartile range [IQR] =3–5 and 2 (IQR =2–3, respectively. In univariate analysis, the ethnicity and
Nicolae Paul Virag
Full Text Available In this work it is shown how the information provided by financial accounting information system used in the decision making process of the entities management. It also presents the implications of their use in planning and investments. Financial information are built in order to respond to the management for decision making, but also to meet the information needs of other external or internal users. In this respect it is presented the accounting information system and the qualitative features and the manner in which is built to have real value for planning, control and decision making.
Rogers, Linda J.; McDonald, Linda L.
Applies Blumer's theory of symbolic interactionism to explore how normal children make meaning of their decision making world, both of their own acts and the labyrinthine world adults structure for them. Schema/narratives on friendship, sports, adults, and school reveal knowledge making strategies defined by immediate experiences and a capacity to…
Speizer, Ilene S; Whittle, Lisa; Carter, Marion
Gender differences influence decision making about reproductive health. Most information on reproductive health decision making in Latin America has come from women's reports of men's involvement. Data were collected in Honduras in 2001 through two national surveys that used independent samples of men aged 15-59 years and women aged 15-49. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify factors associated with male-centered decision-making attitudes and behaviors regarding family size and family planning use. Overall, 25% of women and 28% of men said that men alone should be responsible for at least one of these reproductive decisions, and 27% of women and 21% of men said that the man in their household made one or both decisions. For women, having no children and being in a consensual union were each associated with holding male-centered decision-making attitudes; having less than a secondary education, being of medium or low socioeconomic status and living in a rural area were each associated with male-centered decision making. Among men, having less than secondary education and being in a consensual union were each associated with male-centered decision-making attitudes and behavior. Women who had ever used or were currently using modern methods were significantly less likely to hold attitudes supporting male-centered decision-making than were those who relied on traditional methods and those who had never used a modern method. Programs should recognize power imbalances between genders that affect women's ability to meet their stated fertility desires. In rural areas, programs should target men, encouraging them to communicate with their wives on reproductive decisions.
Groen-van de Ven, Leontine; Smits, Carolien; Span, Marijke; Jukema, Jan; Coppoolse, Krista; de Lange, Jacomine; Eefsting, Jan; Vernooij-Dassen, Myrra
Decision making is an important part of managing one's life with dementia. Shared decision making is the preferred way of involving people in decisions. Our study aimed to describe the challenges of shared decision making in dementia care networks. A multi-perspective qualitative study using face-to-face interviews with 113 respondents in 23 care networks in the Netherlands consisting of 23 people with dementia, 44 of their informal caregivers, and 46 of their professional caregivers. The interview guide addressed the decision topics, who were involved in the decision making and their contributions to the decision making. We used content analysis to delineate categories and themes. The themes and categories that emerged are: (1) adapting to a situation of diminishing independence, which includes the continuous changes in the care network, resulting in shifting decision-making roles and the need for anticipating future decisions; and (2) tensions in network interactions which result from different perspectives and interests and which require reaching agreement about what constitutes a problem by exchanging information in the care network. The challenges in dementia care networks relate to all dimensions of social health. They have implications for a model of shared decision making in dementia care networks. Such a model requires flexibility regarding changing capabilities to preserve the autonomy of the person with dementia. It needs working towards a shared view about what constitutes a problem in the situation. It asks for professionals to advocate for the involvement of people with dementia by helping them participate in ways that strengthen their remaining capacities.
Skulimowski, Andrzej M. J.
In this article, we will investigate the properties of a compromise solution selection method based on modelling the consequences of a decision as factors influencing the decision making in subsequent problems. Specifically, we assume that the constraints and preference structures in the (k + 1)st multicriteria optimisation problem depend on the values of criteria in the k-th problem. To make a decision in the initial problem, the decision maker should take into account the anticipated outcomes of each linked future decision problem. This model can be extended to a network of linked decision problems, such that causal relations are defined between the time-ordered nodes. Multiple edges starting from a decision node correspond to different future scenarios of consequences at this node. In addition, we will define the relation of anticipatory feedback, assuming that some decision makers take into account the anticipated future consequences of their decisions described by a network of optimisers - a class of information processing units introduced in this article. Both relations (causal and anticipatory) form a feedback information model, which makes possible a selection of compromise solutions taking into account the anticipated consequences. We provide constructive algorithms to solve discrete multicriteria decision problems that admit the above preference information structure. An illustrative example is presented in Section 4. Various applications of the above model, including the construction of technology foresight scenarios, are discussed in the final section of this article.
Kon Shing Kenneth Chung
Full Text Available The attitudes of general practitioners (GP play an influential role in their decision making about patient treatment and care. Considering the GP-patient encounter as a complex system, the interactions between the GP and their personal network of peers give rise to “aggregate complexity,” which in turn influences the GP’s decisions about patient treatment. This study models aggregate complexity and its influence in decision making in primary care through the use of social network metrics. Professional network and attitudinal data on decision making responsibility from 107 rural GPs were analysed. Social network measures of “density” and “inclusiveness” were used for computing the “interrelatedness” of components within such a “complex system.” The “number of components” and “degree of interrelatedness” were used to determine the complexity profiles, which was then used to associate with responsibility in decision making for each GP. GPs in simple profiles (i.e., with low components and interactions in contrast to those in nonsimple profiles, indicate a higher responsibility for the decisions they make in medical care. This study suggests that social networks-based complexity profiles are useful for understanding decision making in primary care as it accounts for the role of influence through the professional networks of GPs.
Decision making in matters of pollution, although taking place in a hierarchically determined institutional setting, can be interpreted as the result of a conflictual process between the different groups involved. 1. The statutory setting: coherence of laws and adaptability of norms; a hierarchical, pyramidal, formal structure; relative autonomy and flexibility of local decision making: possibility of developing local organizations for the control of pollution. 2. The conflictual process: Within the institutional setting, decision making is the result of interaction between: the state and the authorities, who make the rules and possess the formal power; industry, which has the economic power and is the arbiter of technical feasibility; the public, who are guardians of social values and judges of the acceptability of final decisions; the experts, who possess the scientific knowledge on which decisions are based. The relative weights of these different interests in decision making are linked with the existence of today's society of communication which increases the importance of communicators and especially the media. Conclusion: decision making in questions of environmental risk and pollution necessarily consists in taking into account all the interests involved in order to arrive at a solution acceptable to the public. The interests of society are not necessarily compatible with technical or scientific logic. (author)
Wirtz, Veronika; Cribb, Alan; Barber, Nick
Previous theoretical and empirical work on health policy decisions about reimbursement focuses on specific rationales such as effectiveness, economic considerations and equal access for equal needs. As reimbursement decisions take place in a social and political context we propose that the analysis of decision-making should incorporate factors, which go beyond those commonly discussed. As an example we chose three health technologies (sildenafil, rivastigmine and statins) to investigate how decisions about reimbursement of medicines are made in the United Kingdom National Health Service and what factors influence these decisions. From face-to-face, in-depth interviews with a purposive sample of 20 regional and national policy makers and stakeholders we identified two dimensions of decision-making, which extend beyond the rationales conventionally cited. The first dimension relates to the role of 'subjectivity' or 'the personal' in the decisions, including personal experiences of the condition and excitement about the novelty or potential benefit of the technology-these factors affect what counts as evidence, or how evidence is interpreted, in practice. The second dimension relates to the social and political function of decision-making and broadens what counts as the relevant ends of decision-making to include such things as maintaining relationships, avoiding organisational burden, generating politically and legally defensible decisions and demonstrating the willingness to care. More importantly, we will argue that these factors should not be treated as contaminants of an otherwise rational decision-making. On the contrary we suggest that they seem relevant, reasonable and also of substantial importance in considering in decision-making. Complementing the analysis of decision-making about reimbursement by incorporating these factors could increase our understanding and potentially improve decision-making.
Krieger, Janice L; Krok-Schoen, Jessica L; Dailey, Phokeng M; Palmer-Wackerly, Angela L; Schoenberg, Nancy; Paskett, Electra D; Dignan, Mark
Distributed cognition occurs when cognitive and affective schemas are shared between two or more people during interpersonal discussion. Although extant research focuses on distributed cognition in decision making between health care providers and patients, studies show that caregivers are also highly influential in the treatment decisions of patients. However, there are little empirical data describing how and when families exert influence. The current article addresses this gap by examining decisional support in the context of cancer randomized clinical trial (RCT) decision making. Data are drawn from in-depth interviews with rural, Appalachian cancer patients ( N = 46). Analysis of transcript data yielded empirical support for four distinct models of health decision making. The implications of these findings for developing interventions to improve the quality of treatment decision making and overall well-being are discussed.
Bansback, Nick; Keystone, Edward; O'Dell, James; Phibbs, Ciaran S; Hannagan, Keri; Brophy, Mary; Anis, Aslam
A recent trial in rheumatoid arthritis found an inexpensive, but infrequently used, combination of therapies is neither inferior nor less safe than an expensive biologic drug. If the trial had been conducted over 10 years ago, arguably 100's of millions of dollars since spent on biologics could have been released to other, more effective treatments. Given the ever increasing number of trials proposed, this commentary uses the trial as an example to challenge payers and research funders to make smarter investments in clinical research to save potential future costs. NCT00405275 , registered 29 November 2006.
Sudkamp, T. [Wright State Univ., Dayton, OH (United States)
System models are constructed to provide tools for both situation assessment and decision analysis. Two distinct types of information are used in system modeling: external information provided by mechanical sensors or human observation and internal information that describes relationships between components of the system. The former type of information is frequently represented by probability estimates, fuzzy sets, or other techniques for representing uncertain or ambiguous information while the latter type is represented by logical relations, rules, or other variations of predicate calculus. Modeling complex system requires the ability to combine the internal system relationships with the information that describes the current assessment of the status of the system. Updating an assessment incorporates sensor information and propagates it through the relational constraints of the system. Two strategies have been introduced to attempt to integrate probabilistic and possibilistic information: probability-possibility transformations and consistency measures. Consistency measures have been designed to analyze the degree of agreement of possibilistic and probabilistic interpretations of the same data. In this paper we consider the problem of assessing the consistency of probabilistic and possibilistic information obtained from different sources. Criteria for possibilistic-probabilistic consistency measures are developed using inclusion measures for fuzzy sets.
Huaxiong Li; Xianzhong Zhou
Rough set theory has witnessed great success in data mining and knowledge discovery, which provides a good support for decision making on a certain data. However, a practical decision problem always shows diversity under the same circumstance according to different personality of the decision makers. A simplex decision model can not provide a full description on such diverse decisions. In this article, a review of Pawlak rough set models and probabilistic rough set models is presented, and a ...
Skalna, Iwona; Gaweł, Bartłomiej; Basiura, Beata; Duda, Jerzy; Opiła, Janusz; Pełech-Pilichowski, Tomasz
This book shows how common operation management methods and algorithms can be extended to deal with vague or imprecise information in decision-making problems. It describes how to combine decision trees, clustering, multi-attribute decision-making algorithms and Monte Carlo Simulation with the mathematical description of imprecise or vague information, and how to visualize such information. Moreover, it discusses a broad spectrum of real-life management problems including forecasting the apparent consumption of steel products, planning and scheduling of production processes, project portfolio selection and economic-risk estimation. It is a concise, yet comprehensive, reference source for researchers in decision-making and decision-makers in business organizations alike.
A decision aid was developed to overcome examiner limitations in information processing and decision making during ultrasonic examinations. The aid provided a means of noting signal characteristics as they were observed during the examination, and of presenting them simultaneously for decision making. The aid also served as a way of providing detailed feedback on examination performance during training. The aid was incorporated into worksheets used for the conduct of practice examinations during ultrasonic examination training. To support the introduction and use of the decision aid, one hour of supplementary training was inserted in an existing 64-hour training course on ultrasonic detection of defects. This study represented a modest step in improving the performance of ultrasonic examinations in nuclear power plants. Findings indicated that aided decision making supported by limited training can significantly improve ultrasonic detection performance
Full Text Available For solving the discrete linguistic stochastic multiple criteria decision making problems with incomplete information, a new decision making method based on the differences between the superiorities and the inferiorities is proposed. According to the two basic parameters which are the possible outcome and the state probability, the superior decision matrix and the inferior decision matrix of the alternative set under each criterion are first worked out. Then, by the differences between the elements on the appropriate locations of these matrices, the corresponding dominant decision matrices are formed. Subsequently, with the help of the weight vector of the criterion set, the weighted integrated dominant decision matrix of the alternative set is built. Consequently, the weighted integrated dominant indices' sum of each alternative is calculated. Thus, the rank of the alternatives comes out. Finally, a numerical example is given. The result shows the superiority of the method.
Fountas, S.; Wulfsohn, Dvora-Laiô; Blackmore, B.S.
and further revised during testing on a number of research and commercial farms in Indiana, USA. Twenty-one decision analysis factors were idebfied to characterise a farm manager's decision-making process. Then a general data flow diagram (DFD) was constructed that describes the information flows "from data......A participative methology was developed in which farm managers decomposed their process of decision making in Precision Agriculture (PA) into brief secision statesments along with associated information requirements. The methodology was first developed on a university research farm in Denmark...... to decision". Illustrative examples of the model in the form of DFDs are presented for a strategic and an operational decision. The model was validated for a range of decisions related to operations by three university farm managers and by five commercial farmers practicing PA for cereal, corn and soybean...
Frydman, Cary; Camerer, Colin F
Financial decisions are among the most important life-shaping decisions that people make. We review facts about financial decisions and what cognitive and neural processes influence them. Because of cognitive constraints and a low average level of financial literacy, many household decisions violate sound financial principles. Households typically have underdiversified stock holdings and low retirement savings rates. Investors overextrapolate from past returns and trade too often. Even top corporate managers, who are typically highly educated, make decisions that are affected by overconfidence and personal history. Many of these behaviors can be explained by well-known principles from cognitive science. A boom in high-quality accumulated evidence-especially how practical, low-cost 'nudges' can improve financial decisions-is already giving clear guidance for balanced government regulation. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Muhlheim, Michael David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Belles, Randy [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Denning, Richard S. [Self Employed
Decision-making is the process of identifying decision alternatives, assessing those alternatives based on predefined metrics, selecting an alternative (i.e., making a decision), and then implementing that alternative. The generation of decisions requires a structured, coherent process, or a decision-making process. The overall objective for this work is that the generalized framework is adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace or supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision-making modules that can perform a given set of tasks rationally, consistently, and reliably. Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the supervisory control system is based on the control actions associated with an ALMR PRISM. Newly incorporated into the probabilistic models are the prognostic/diagnostic models developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These allow decisions to incorporate the health of components into the decision–making process. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic portion of the decision-making engine uses thermal-hydraulic modeling and components for an advanced liquid-metal reactor Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module. The deterministic multi
This paper aims at understanding the role of market research information in the corporate decision making process concerning marketing decisions (4Ps). Information is an asset and resource that is essential for decision-makers so that they can define the company’s short and long term goals, execute and evaluate them. The whole process can be supported by customized research and retail measurement results.
Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
This paper proposes a method for risk-based decision making for maintenance of deteriorating components, based on the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Unlike most methods, the decision polices do not need to be stationary and can vary according to seasons and near the end...... of the lifetime. The approach is demonstrated through two examples, and the total expected costs are similar to those of another efficient method....
Johannessen, Trond Vegard
This thesis reviews relevant literature and presents the results of an exploratory experimental study to enhance the understanding of whether - and how - data presentation forms influence decision making effectiveness. 42 MBA students were exposed to decisions regarding the management of a summer restaurant covering a fivemonth period. This research differs from previous research in this area by examining the effects of the combined use of graphs and tables in decision tasks an...
Decisions and problems can often leave people with a dilemma: knowing that a decision is required, but uncertain how to ensure that it is the best one and that it will be successfully executed. The paradox is that the very pressure for a decision often breeds indecisiveness.
Bullis, Robert V.
The four phases in rational decision-making are (1) diagnosis, (2) discovering alternative solutions, (3) analyzing and comparing alternatives, and (4) selecting the proper alternative or plan to follow. (Author)
Full Text Available Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-making by the Air NavigationSystem's operator influenced by external environment, previous experience and intentions were identified.The methods for analysis of decision-making by the human-operator of Air Navigation System usingstochastic networks have been developed.Keywords: Air Navigation System, bipolar choice, human operator, decision-making, expected risk, individualpsychologicalfactors, methodology of analysis, reflexive model, socio-psychological factors, stochastic network.
This book provides an overview of intelligent decision-making techniques and discusses their application in production and retail operations. Manufacturing and retail enterprises have stringent standards for using advanced and reliable techniques to improve decision-making processes, since these processes have significant effects on the performance of relevant operations and the entire supply chain. In recent years, researchers have been increasingly focusing attention on using intelligent techniques to solve various decision-making problems. The opening chapters provide an introduction to several commonly used intelligent techniques, such as genetic algorithm, harmony search, neural network and extreme learning machine. The book then explores the use of these techniques for handling various production and retail decision-making problems, such as production planning and scheduling, assembly line balancing, and sales forecasting.
This presentation provides an overview about different approaches of the mobile learning group of the Welten Institute regarding the design and evaluation of mobile learning games for critical decision making and crisis simulation.
Fanti, Kostas A; Kimonis, Eva R; Hadjicharalambous, Maria-Zoe; Steinberg, Laurence
The present study aimed to test whether neurocognitive deficits involved in decision making underlie subtypes of conduct-disorder (CD) differentiated on the basis of callous-unemotional (CU) traits. Eighty-five participants (M age = 10.94 years) were selected from a sample of 1200 children based on repeated assessment of CD and CU traits. Participants completed a multi-method battery of well-validated measures of risky decision making and associated constructs of selective attention and future orientation (Stroop, Stoplight, and Delay-Discounting Tasks). Findings indicated that impaired decision making, selective attention, and future orientation contribute to the antisocial presentations displayed by children with CD, irrespective of level of CU traits. Youth high on CU traits without CD showed less risky decision making, as indicated by their performance on the Stoplight laboratory task, than those high on both CD and CU traits, suggesting a potential protective factor against the development of antisocial behavior.