Pickering safeguards: a preliminary analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Todd, J.L.; Hodgkinson, J.G.

1977-05-01

A summary is presented of thoughts relative to a systems approach for implementing international safeguards. Included is a preliminary analysis of the Pickering Generating Station followed by a suggested safeguards system for the facility

Quantitative wound healing studies using a portable, low cost, handheld near-infrared optical scanner: preliminary sensitivity and specificity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Lei, Jiali; Rodriguez, Suset; Jayachandran, Maanasa; Solis, Elizabeth; Gonzalez, Stephanie; Perez-Clavijo, Francesco; Wigley, Stephen; Godavarty, Anuradha

2016-03-01

Lower extremity ulcers are devastating complications that are still un-recognized. To date, clinicians employ visual inspection of the wound site during its standard 4-week of healing process via monitoring of surface granulation. A novel ultra-portable near-infrared optical scanner (NIROS) has been developed at the Optical Imaging Laboratory that can perform non-contact 2D area imaging of the wound site. From preliminary studies it was observed that the nonhealing wounds had a greater absorption contrast with respect to the normal site, unlike in the healing wounds. Currently, non-contact near-infrared (NIR) imaging studies were carried out on 22 lower extremity wounds at two podiatric clinics, and the sensitivity and specificity of the scanner evaluated. A quantitative optical biometric was developed that differentiates healing from non-healing wounds, based on the threshold values obtained during ROC analysis. In addition, optical images of the wound obtained from weekly imaging studies are also assessed to determine the ability of the device to predict wound healing consistently on a periodic basis. This can potentially impact early intervention in the treatment of lower extremity ulcers when an objective and quantitative wound healing approach is developed. Lastly, the incorporation of MATLAB graphical user interface (GUI) to automate the process of image acquisition, image processing and image analysis realizes the potential of NIROS to perform non-contact and real-time imaging on lower extremity wounds.

Production, crystallization and preliminary X-ray diffraction analysis of the allergen Can f 2 from Canis familiaris

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Madhurantakam, Chaithanya; Nilsson, Ola B.; Jönsson, Klas; Grönlund, Hans; Achour, Adnane

2009-01-01

The recombinant form of the allergen Can f 2 from C. familiaris was produced, isolated and crystallized in two different forms. Preliminary X-ray diffraction analyses are reported for the two crystal forms of Can f 2. The allergen Can f 2 from dog (Canis familiaris) present in saliva, dander and fur is an important cause of allergic sensitization worldwide. Here, the production, isolation, crystallization and preliminary X-ray diffraction analysis of two crystal forms of recombinant Can f 2 are reported. The first crystal form belonged to space group C222, with unit-cell parameters a = 68.7, b = 77.3, c = 65.1 Å, and diffracted to 1.55 Å resolution, while the second crystal form belonged to space group C2, with unit-cell parameters a = 75.7, b = 48.3, c = 68.7 Å, β = 126.5°, and diffracted to 2.1 Å resolution. Preliminary data analysis indicated the presence of a single molecule in the asymmetric unit for both crystal forms

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

CERN Document Server

Cacuci, Dan G; Navon, Ionel Michael

2005-01-01

As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative c

Preliminary HECTOR analysis by Dragon

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Presser, W; Woloch, F

1972-06-02

From the different cores measured in HECTOR, only ACH 4/B-B was selected for the Dragon analysis, since it presented the largest amount of uniform fuel loading in the central test region and is therefore nearest to an infinite lattice. Preliminary results are discussed.

WHAT IF (Sensitivity Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iulian N. BUJOREANU

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Sensitivity analysis represents such a well known and deeply analyzed subject that anyone to enter the field feels like not being able to add anything new. Still, there are so many facets to be taken into consideration.The paper introduces the reader to the various ways sensitivity analysis is implemented and the reasons for which it has to be implemented in most analyses in the decision making processes. Risk analysis is of outmost importance in dealing with resource allocation and is presented at the beginning of the paper as the initial cause to implement sensitivity analysis. Different views and approaches are added during the discussion about sensitivity analysis so that the reader develops an as thoroughly as possible opinion on the use and UTILITY of the sensitivity analysis. Finally, a round-up conclusion brings us to the question of the possibility of generating the future and analyzing it before it unfolds so that, when it happens it brings less uncertainty.

Licensing support system preliminary needs analysis: Volume 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-01-01

This Preliminary Needs Analysis, together with the Preliminary Data Scope Analysis (next in this series of reports), is a first effort under the LSS Design and Implementation Contract toward developing a sound requirements foundation for subsequent design work. Further refinements must be made before requirements can be specified in sufficient detail to provide a basis for suitably specific system specifications. This preliminary analysis of the LSS requirements has been divided into a ''needs'' and a ''data scope'' portion only for project management and scheduling reasons. The Preliminary Data Scope Analysis will address all issues concerning the content and size of the LSS data base; providing the requirements basis for data acquisition, cataloging and storage sizing specifications. This report addresses all other requirements for the LSS. The LSS consists of both computer subsystems and non-computer archives. This study addresses only the computer subsystems, focusing on the Access Subsystems. After providing background on previous LSS-related work, this report summarizes the findings from previous examinations of needs and describes a number of other requirements that have an impact on the LSS. The results of interviews conducted for this report are then described and analyzed. The final section of the report brings all of the key findings together and describes how these needs analyses will continue to be refined and utilized in on-going design activities. 14 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

Development of the GOSAT-2 FTS-2 Simulator and Preliminary Sensitivity Analysis for CO2 Retrieval

Science.gov (United States)

Kamei, A.; Yoshida, Y.; Dupuy, E.; Hiraki, K.; Yokota, Y.; Oishi, Y.; Murakami, K.; Morino, I.; Matsunaga, T.

2013-12-01

The Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite-2 (GOSAT-2), which is a successor mission to the GOSAT, is planned to be launched in FY 2017. The Fourier Transform Spectrometer-2 (FTS-2) onboard the GOSAT-2 is a primary sensor to observe infrared light reflected and emitted from the Earth's surface and atmosphere. The FTS-2 obtains high-spectral resolution spectra with four bands from near to short-wavelength infrared (SWIR) region and one band in the thermal infrared (TIR) region. The column amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are retrieved from the obtained radiance spectra with SWIR bands. Compared to the FTS onboard the GOSAT, the FTS-2 includes an additional SWIR band to allow for carbon monoxide (CO) measurement. We have been developing a tool, named GOSAT-2 FTS-2 simulator, which is capable of simulating the spectral radiance data observed by the FTS-2 using the Pstar2 radiative transfer code. The purpose of the GOSAT-2 FTS-2 simulator is to obtain data which is exploited in the sensor specification, the optimization of parameters for Level 1 processing, and the improvement of Level 2 algorithms. The GOSAT-2 FTS-2 simulator, composed of the six components: 1) Overall control, 2) Onboarding platform, 3) Spectral radiance calculation, 4) Fourier transform, 5) L1B processing, and 6) L1B data output, has been installed on the GOSAT Research Computation Facility (GOSAT RCF), which is a large-scale, high-performance, and energy-efficient computer. We present the progress in the development of the GOSAT-2 FTS-2 simulator and the preliminary sensitivity analysis, relating to the engineering parameters, the aerosols and clouds, and so on, on the Level 1 processing for CO2 retrieval from the obtained data by simulating the FTS-2 SWIR observation using the GOSAT-2 FTS-2 simulator.

Effect of preliminary annealing of silicon substrates on the spectral sensitivity of photodetectors in bipolar integrated circuits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blynskij, V.I.; Bozhatkin, O.A.; Golub, E.S.; Lemeshevskaya, A.M.; Shvedov, S.V.

2010-01-01

We examine the results of an effect of preliminary annealing on the spectral sensitivity of photodetectors in bipolar integrated circuits, formed in silicon grown by the Czochralski method. We demonstrate the possibility of substantially improving the sensitivity of photodetectors in the infrared region of the spectrum with twostep annealing. The observed effect is explained by participation of oxidation in the gettering process, where oxidation precedes formation of a buried n + layer in the substrate. (authors)

Original Article PRELIMINARY BIOAUTOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS OF ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

PRELIMINARY BIOAUTOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS OF THE SEEDS OF GLYPHAEA BREVIS. (SPRENG) MONACHINO FOR ANTIOXIDANT AND ANTIBACTERIAL PRINCIPLES. Michael Lahai1, Tiwalade Adewale Olugbade2. 1Department of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, College of Medicine ...

Licensing Support System: Preliminary data scope analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-01-01

The purpose of this analysis is to determine the content and scope of the Licensing Support System (LSS) data base. Both user needs and currently available data bases that, at least in part, address those needs have been analyzed. This analysis, together with the Preliminary Needs Analysis (DOE, 1988d) is a first effort under the LSS Design and Implementation Contract toward developing a sound requirements foundation for subsequent design work. These reports are preliminary. Further refinements must be made before requirements can be specified in sufficient detail to provide a basis for suitably specific system specifications. This document provides a baseline for what is known at this time. Additional analyses, currently being conducted, will provide more precise information on the content and scope of the LSS data base. 23 refs., 4 figs., 8 tabs

Reproduction of the Yucca Mountain Project TSPA-LA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses and Preliminary Upgrade of Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hadgu, Teklu [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Nuclear Waste Disposal Research and Analysis; Appel, Gordon John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Nuclear Waste Disposal Research and Analysis

2016-09-01

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) continued evaluation of total system performance assessment (TSPA) computing systems for the previously considered Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). This was done to maintain the operational readiness of the computing infrastructure (computer hardware and software) and knowledge capability for total system performance assessment (TSPA) type analysis, as directed by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), DOE 2010. This work is a continuation of the ongoing readiness evaluation reported in Lee and Hadgu (2014) and Hadgu et al. (2015). The TSPA computing hardware (CL2014) and storage system described in Hadgu et al. (2015) were used for the current analysis. One floating license of GoldSim with Versions 9.60.300, 10.5 and 11.1.6 was installed on the cluster head node, and its distributed processing capability was mapped on the cluster processors. Other supporting software were tested and installed to support the TSPA-type analysis on the server cluster. The current tasks included verification of the TSPA-LA uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, and preliminary upgrade of the TSPA-LA from Version 9.60.300 to the latest version 11.1. All the TSPA-LA uncertainty and sensitivity analyses modeling cases were successfully tested and verified for the model reproducibility on the upgraded 2014 server cluster (CL2014). The uncertainty and sensitivity analyses used TSPA-LA modeling cases output generated in FY15 based on GoldSim Version 9.60.300 documented in Hadgu et al. (2015). The model upgrade task successfully converted the Nominal Modeling case to GoldSim Version 11.1. Upgrade of the remaining of the modeling cases and distributed processing tasks will continue. The 2014 server cluster and supporting software systems are fully operational to support TSPA-LA type analysis.

Sensitivity functions for uncertainty analysis: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of reactor performance parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greenspan, E.

1982-01-01

This chapter presents the mathematical basis for sensitivity functions, discusses their physical meaning and information they contain, and clarifies a number of issues concerning their application, including the definition of group sensitivities, the selection of sensitivity functions to be included in the analysis, and limitations of sensitivity theory. Examines the theoretical foundation; criticality reset sensitivities; group sensitivities and uncertainties; selection of sensitivities included in the analysis; and other uses and limitations of sensitivity functions. Gives the theoretical formulation of sensitivity functions pertaining to ''as-built'' designs for performance parameters of the form of ratios of linear flux functionals (such as reaction-rate ratios), linear adjoint functionals, bilinear functions (such as reactivity worth ratios), and for reactor reactivity. Offers a consistent procedure for reducing energy-dependent or fine-group sensitivities and uncertainties to broad group sensitivities and uncertainties. Provides illustrations of sensitivity functions as well as references to available compilations of such functions and of total sensitivities. Indicates limitations of sensitivity theory originating from the fact that this theory is based on a first-order perturbation theory

Review of Preliminary Analysis Techniques for Tension Structures.

Science.gov (United States)

1984-02-01

however,a linear dinamic analysis can be conducted for purposes of preliminary design, relative to the static configuration. It is noted that the amount of...16 Chapter 3. PRELIMINARY DESIGN OF TENSION STRUCTURES . . .. .. .. .... 22 S.3.1 Cable Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .... 23...3.1.1 Singly-Connected Segments. .. .... ... 24 3.1.2 Multiply-Connected Segments . . .. .. .. .. 27 3.1.3 Linearized Dynamics of Cable Systems . . . . 29

Preliminary failure mode and effect analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Addison, J.V.

1972-01-01

A preliminary Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) was made on the overall 5 Kwe system. A general discussion of the system and failure effect is given in addition to the tabulated FMEA and a primary block diagram of the system. (U.S.)

Preliminary Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Waffle Walls

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Shugar, Theodore

1997-01-01

A preliminary analytical method based upon modified plate bending theory is offered for structural analysis of a promising new construction method for walls of small buildings and residential housing...

Sensitivity analysis of numerical model of prestressed concrete containment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bílý, Petr, E-mail: petr.bily@fsv.cvut.cz; Kohoutková, Alena, E-mail: akohout@fsv.cvut.cz

2015-12-15

Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • FEM model of prestressed concrete containment with steel liner was created. • Sensitivity analysis of changes in geometry and loads was conducted. • Steel liner and temperature effects are the most important factors. • Creep and shrinkage parameters are essential for the long time analysis. • Prestressing schedule is a key factor in the early stages. - Abstract: Safety is always the main consideration in the design of containment of nuclear power plant. However, efficiency of the design process should be also taken into consideration. Despite the advances in computational abilities in recent years, simplified analyses may be found useful for preliminary scoping or trade studies. In the paper, a study on sensitivity of finite element model of prestressed concrete containment to changes in geometry, loads and other factors is presented. Importance of steel liner, reinforcement, prestressing process, temperature changes, nonlinearity of materials as well as density of finite elements mesh is assessed in the main stages of life cycle of the containment. Although the modeling adjustments have not produced any significant changes in computation time, it was found that in some cases simplified modeling process can lead to significant reduction of work time without degradation of the results.

Sensitivity Analysis of Multidisciplinary Rotorcraft Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Li; Diskin, Boris; Biedron, Robert T.; Nielsen, Eric J.; Bauchau, Olivier A.

2017-01-01

A multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis of rotorcraft simulations involving tightly coupled high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics and comprehensive analysis solvers is presented and evaluated. An unstructured sensitivity-enabled Navier-Stokes solver, FUN3D, and a nonlinear flexible multibody dynamics solver, DYMORE, are coupled to predict the aerodynamic loads and structural responses of helicopter rotor blades. A discretely-consistent adjoint-based sensitivity analysis available in FUN3D provides sensitivities arising from unsteady turbulent flows and unstructured dynamic overset meshes, while a complex-variable approach is used to compute DYMORE structural sensitivities with respect to aerodynamic loads. The multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis is conducted through integrating the sensitivity components from each discipline of the coupled system. Numerical results verify accuracy of the FUN3D/DYMORE system by conducting simulations for a benchmark rotorcraft test model and comparing solutions with established analyses and experimental data. Complex-variable implementation of sensitivity analysis of DYMORE and the coupled FUN3D/DYMORE system is verified by comparing with real-valued analysis and sensitivities. Correctness of adjoint formulations for FUN3D/DYMORE interfaces is verified by comparing adjoint-based and complex-variable sensitivities. Finally, sensitivities of the lift and drag functions obtained by complex-variable FUN3D/DYMORE simulations are compared with sensitivities computed by the multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis, which couples adjoint-based flow and grid sensitivities of FUN3D and FUN3D/DYMORE interfaces with complex-variable sensitivities of DYMORE structural responses.

Preliminary hazards analysis -- vitrification process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coordes, D.; Ruggieri, M.; Russell, J.; TenBrook, W.; Yimbo, P.

1994-06-01

This paper presents a Preliminary Hazards Analysis (PHA) for mixed waste vitrification by joule heating. The purpose of performing a PHA is to establish an initial hazard categorization for a DOE nuclear facility and to identify those processes and structures which may have an impact on or be important to safety. The PHA is typically performed during and provides input to project conceptual design. The PHA is then followed by a Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) performed during Title 1 and 2 design. The PSAR then leads to performance of the Final Safety Analysis Report performed during the facility's construction and testing. It should be completed before routine operation of the facility commences. This PHA addresses the first four chapters of the safety analysis process, in accordance with the requirements of DOE Safety Guidelines in SG 830.110. The hazards associated with vitrification processes are evaluated using standard safety analysis methods which include: identification of credible potential hazardous energy sources; identification of preventative features of the facility or system; identification of mitigative features; and analyses of credible hazards. Maximal facility inventories of radioactive and hazardous materials are postulated to evaluate worst case accident consequences. These inventories were based on DOE-STD-1027-92 guidance and the surrogate waste streams defined by Mayberry, et al. Radiological assessments indicate that a facility, depending on the radioactive material inventory, may be an exempt, Category 3, or Category 2 facility. The calculated impacts would result in no significant impact to offsite personnel or the environment. Hazardous materials assessment indicates that a Mixed Waste Vitrification facility will be a Low Hazard facility having minimal impacts to offsite personnel and the environment

Preliminary hazards analysis -- vitrification process

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coordes, D.; Ruggieri, M.; Russell, J.; TenBrook, W.; Yimbo, P. [Science Applications International Corp., Pleasanton, CA (United States)

1994-06-01

This paper presents a Preliminary Hazards Analysis (PHA) for mixed waste vitrification by joule heating. The purpose of performing a PHA is to establish an initial hazard categorization for a DOE nuclear facility and to identify those processes and structures which may have an impact on or be important to safety. The PHA is typically performed during and provides input to project conceptual design. The PHA is then followed by a Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) performed during Title 1 and 2 design. The PSAR then leads to performance of the Final Safety Analysis Report performed during the facility`s construction and testing. It should be completed before routine operation of the facility commences. This PHA addresses the first four chapters of the safety analysis process, in accordance with the requirements of DOE Safety Guidelines in SG 830.110. The hazards associated with vitrification processes are evaluated using standard safety analysis methods which include: identification of credible potential hazardous energy sources; identification of preventative features of the facility or system; identification of mitigative features; and analyses of credible hazards. Maximal facility inventories of radioactive and hazardous materials are postulated to evaluate worst case accident consequences. These inventories were based on DOE-STD-1027-92 guidance and the surrogate waste streams defined by Mayberry, et al. Radiological assessments indicate that a facility, depending on the radioactive material inventory, may be an exempt, Category 3, or Category 2 facility. The calculated impacts would result in no significant impact to offsite personnel or the environment. Hazardous materials assessment indicates that a Mixed Waste Vitrification facility will be a Low Hazard facility having minimal impacts to offsite personnel and the environment.

Preliminary analysis of public dose from CFETR gaseous tritium release

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nie, Baojie [Key Laboratory of Neutronics and Radiation Safety, Institute of Nuclear Energy Safety Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui 230031 (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230027 (China); Ni, Muyi, E-mail: muyi.ni@fds.org.cn [Key Laboratory of Neutronics and Radiation Safety, Institute of Nuclear Energy Safety Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui 230031 (China); Lian, Chao; Jiang, Jieqiong [Key Laboratory of Neutronics and Radiation Safety, Institute of Nuclear Energy Safety Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui 230031 (China)

2015-02-15

Highlights: • Present the amounts and limit dose of tritium release to the environment for CFETR. • Perform a preliminary simulation of radiation dose for gaseous tritium release. • Key parameters about soil types, wind speed, stability class, effective release height and age were sensitivity analyzed. • Tritium release amount is recalculated consistently with dose limit in Chinese regulation for CFETR. - Abstract: To demonstrate tritium self-sufficiency and other engineering issues, the scientific conception of Chinese Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) has been proposed in China parallel with ITER and before DEMO reactor. Tritium environmental safety for CFETR is an important issue and must be evaluated because of the huge amounts of tritium cycling in reactor. In this work, different tritium release scenarios of CFETR and dose limit regulations in China are introduced. And the public dose is preliminarily analyzed under normal and accidental events. Furthermore, after finishing the sensitivity analysis of key input parameters, the public dose is reevaluated based on extreme parameters. Finally, tritium release amount is recalculated consistently with the dose limit in Chinese regulation for CFETR, which would provide a reference for tritium system design of CFETR.

Preliminary Sensitivity Study on Gas-Cooled Reactor for NHDD System Using MARS-GCR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Seung Wook; Jeong, Jae Jun; Lee, Won Jae

2005-01-01

A Gas-Cooled Reactor (GCR) is considered as one of the most outstanding tools for a massive hydrogen production without CO 2 emission. Till now, two types of GCR are regarded as a viable nuclear reactor for a hydrogen production: Prismatic Modular Reactor (PMR), Pebble Bed Reactor (PBR). In this paper, a preliminary sensitivity study on two types of GCR is carried out by using MARS-GCR to find out the effect on the peak fuel and reactor pressure vessel (RPV) temperature, with varying the condition of a reactor inlet, outlet temperature, and system pressure for both PMR and PBR

MOVES regional level sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

The MOVES Regional Level Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to increase understanding of the operations of the MOVES Model in regional emissions analysis and to highlight the following: : the relative sensitivity of selected MOVES Model input paramet...

Preliminary safety analysis report for the TFTR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lind, K.E.; Levine, J.D.; Howe, H.J.

A Preliminary Safety Analysis Report has been prepared for the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor. No accident scenarios have been identified which would result in exposures to on-site personnel or the general public in excess of the guidelines defined for the project by DOE

Sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models.

Science.gov (United States)

Zi, Z

2011-11-01

With the rising application of systems biology, sensitivity analysis methods have been widely applied to study the biological systems, including metabolic networks, signalling pathways and genetic circuits. Sensitivity analysis can provide valuable insights about how robust the biological responses are with respect to the changes of biological parameters and which model inputs are the key factors that affect the model outputs. In addition, sensitivity analysis is valuable for guiding experimental analysis, model reduction and parameter estimation. Local and global sensitivity analysis approaches are the two types of sensitivity analysis that are commonly applied in systems biology. Local sensitivity analysis is a classic method that studies the impact of small perturbations on the model outputs. On the other hand, global sensitivity analysis approaches have been applied to understand how the model outputs are affected by large variations of the model input parameters. In this review, the author introduces the basic concepts of sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models. Moreover, the author discusses the advantages and disadvantages of different sensitivity analysis methods, how to choose a proper sensitivity analysis approach, the available sensitivity analysis tools for systems biology models and the caveats in the interpretation of sensitivity analysis results.

Sensitivity Analysis Without Assumptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Peng; VanderWeele, Tyler J

2016-05-01

Unmeasured confounding may undermine the validity of causal inference with observational studies. Sensitivity analysis provides an attractive way to partially circumvent this issue by assessing the potential influence of unmeasured confounding on causal conclusions. However, previous sensitivity analysis approaches often make strong and untestable assumptions such as having an unmeasured confounder that is binary, or having no interaction between the effects of the exposure and the confounder on the outcome, or having only one unmeasured confounder. Without imposing any assumptions on the unmeasured confounder or confounders, we derive a bounding factor and a sharp inequality such that the sensitivity analysis parameters must satisfy the inequality if an unmeasured confounder is to explain away the observed effect estimate or reduce it to a particular level. Our approach is easy to implement and involves only two sensitivity parameters. Surprisingly, our bounding factor, which makes no simplifying assumptions, is no more conservative than a number of previous sensitivity analysis techniques that do make assumptions. Our new bounding factor implies not only the traditional Cornfield conditions that both the relative risk of the exposure on the confounder and that of the confounder on the outcome must satisfy but also a high threshold that the maximum of these relative risks must satisfy. Furthermore, this new bounding factor can be viewed as a measure of the strength of confounding between the exposure and the outcome induced by a confounder.

Sensitivity analysis of critical experiment with direct perturbation compared to TSUNAMI-3D sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barber, A. D.; Busch, R.

2009-01-01

The goal of this work is to obtain sensitivities from direct uncertainty analysis calculation and correlate those calculated values with the sensitivities produced from TSUNAMI-3D (Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation in Three Dimensions). A full sensitivity analysis is performed on a critical experiment to determine the overall uncertainty of the experiment. Small perturbation calculations are performed for all known uncertainties to obtain the total uncertainty of the experiment. The results from a critical experiment are only known as well as the geometric and material properties. The goal of this relationship is to simplify the uncertainty quantification process in assessing a critical experiment, while still considering all of the important parameters. (authors)

Sensitivity analysis in multi-parameter probabilistic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walker, J.R.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic methods involving the use of multi-parameter Monte Carlo analysis can be applied to a wide range of engineering systems. The output from the Monte Carlo analysis is a probabilistic estimate of the system consequence, which can vary spatially and temporally. Sensitivity analysis aims to examine how the output consequence is influenced by the input parameter values. Sensitivity analysis provides the necessary information so that the engineering properties of the system can be optimized. This report details a package of sensitivity analysis techniques that together form an integrated methodology for the sensitivity analysis of probabilistic systems. The techniques have known confidence limits and can be applied to a wide range of engineering problems. The sensitivity analysis methodology is illustrated by performing the sensitivity analysis of the MCROC rock microcracking model

Global optimization and sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cacuci, D.G.

1990-01-01

A new direction for the analysis of nonlinear models of nuclear systems is suggested to overcome fundamental limitations of sensitivity analysis and optimization methods currently prevalent in nuclear engineering usage. This direction is toward a global analysis of the behavior of the respective system as its design parameters are allowed to vary over their respective design ranges. Presented is a methodology for global analysis that unifies and extends the current scopes of sensitivity analysis and optimization by identifying all the critical points (maxima, minima) and solution bifurcation points together with corresponding sensitivities at any design point of interest. The potential applicability of this methodology is illustrated with test problems involving multiple critical points and bifurcations and comprising both equality and inequality constraints

Chemical kinetic functional sensitivity analysis: Elementary sensitivities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Demiralp, M.; Rabitz, H.

1981-01-01

Sensitivity analysis is considered for kinetics problems defined in the space--time domain. This extends an earlier temporal Green's function method to handle calculations of elementary functional sensitivities deltau/sub i//deltaα/sub j/ where u/sub i/ is the ith species concentration and α/sub j/ is the jth system parameter. The system parameters include rate constants, diffusion coefficients, initial conditions, boundary conditions, or any other well-defined variables in the kinetic equations. These parameters are generally considered to be functions of position and/or time. Derivation of the governing equations for the sensitivities and the Green's funciton are presented. The physical interpretation of the Green's function and sensitivities is given along with a discussion of the relation of this work to earlier research

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of biochemical reaction systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hong-Xuan; Dempsey, William P; Goutsias, John

2009-09-07

Sensitivity analysis is an indispensable tool for studying the robustness and fragility properties of biochemical reaction systems as well as for designing optimal approaches for selective perturbation and intervention. Deterministic sensitivity analysis techniques, using derivatives of the system response, have been extensively used in the literature. However, these techniques suffer from several drawbacks, which must be carefully considered before using them in problems of systems biology. We develop here a probabilistic approach to sensitivity analysis of biochemical reaction systems. The proposed technique employs a biophysically derived model for parameter fluctuations and, by using a recently suggested variance-based approach to sensitivity analysis [Saltelli et al., Chem. Rev. (Washington, D.C.) 105, 2811 (2005)], it leads to a powerful sensitivity analysis methodology for biochemical reaction systems. The approach presented in this paper addresses many problems associated with derivative-based sensitivity analysis techniques. Most importantly, it produces thermodynamically consistent sensitivity analysis results, can easily accommodate appreciable parameter variations, and allows for systematic investigation of high-order interaction effects. By employing a computational model of the mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling cascade, we demonstrate that our approach is well suited for sensitivity analysis of biochemical reaction systems and can produce a wealth of information about the sensitivity properties of such systems. The price to be paid, however, is a substantial increase in computational complexity over derivative-based techniques, which must be effectively addressed in order to make the proposed approach to sensitivity analysis more practical.

Sensitivity analysis of power depression and axial power factor effect on fuel pin to temperature and related properties distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suwardi, S.

2001-01-01

The presented paper is a preliminary step to evaluate the effect of radial and axial distribution of power generation on thermal analysis of whole fuel pin model with large L/D ratio. The model takes into account both radial and axial distribution of power generation due to power depression and core geometry, temperature and microstructure dependent on thermal conductivity. The microstructure distribution and the gap conductance for typical steady-state situation are given for the sensitivity analysis. The temperature and thermal conductivity distribution along the radial and axial directions obtained by different power distribution is used to indicate the sensitivity of power depression and power factor on thermal aspect. The evaluation is made for one step of incremental time and steady state approach is used. The analysis has been performed using a finite element-finite difference model. The result for typical reactor fuel shows that the sensitivity is too important to be omitted in thermal model

A hybrid approach for global sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, Souvik; Chowdhury, Rajib

2017-01-01

Distribution based sensitivity analysis (DSA) computes sensitivity of the input random variables with respect to the change in distribution of output response. Although DSA is widely appreciated as the best tool for sensitivity analysis, the computational issue associated with this method prohibits its use for complex structures involving costly finite element analysis. For addressing this issue, this paper presents a method that couples polynomial correlated function expansion (PCFE) with DSA. PCFE is a fully equivalent operational model which integrates the concepts of analysis of variance decomposition, extended bases and homotopy algorithm. By integrating PCFE into DSA, it is possible to considerably alleviate the computational burden. Three examples are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach for sensitivity analysis. For all the problems, proposed approach yields excellent results with significantly reduced computational effort. The results obtained, to some extent, indicate that proposed approach can be utilized for sensitivity analysis of large scale structures. - Highlights: • A hybrid approach for global sensitivity analysis is proposed. • Proposed approach integrates PCFE within distribution based sensitivity analysis. • Proposed approach is highly efficient.

Maternal sensitivity: a concept analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, Hyunjeong; Park, Young-Joo; Ryu, Hosihn; Seomun, Gyeong-Ae

2008-11-01

The aim of this paper is to report a concept analysis of maternal sensitivity. Maternal sensitivity is a broad concept encompassing a variety of interrelated affective and behavioural caregiving attributes. It is used interchangeably with the terms maternal responsiveness or maternal competency, with no consistency of use. There is a need to clarify the concept of maternal sensitivity for research and practice. A search was performed on the CINAHL and Ovid MEDLINE databases using 'maternal sensitivity', 'maternal responsiveness' and 'sensitive mothering' as key words. The searches yielded 54 records for the years 1981-2007. Rodgers' method of evolutionary concept analysis was used to analyse the material. Four critical attributes of maternal sensitivity were identified: (a) dynamic process involving maternal abilities; (b) reciprocal give-and-take with the infant; (c) contingency on the infant's behaviour and (d) quality of maternal behaviours. Maternal identity and infant's needs and cues are antecedents for these attributes. The consequences are infant's comfort, mother-infant attachment and infant development. In addition, three positive affecting factors (social support, maternal-foetal attachment and high self-esteem) and three negative affecting factors (maternal depression, maternal stress and maternal anxiety) were identified. A clear understanding of the concept of maternal sensitivity could be useful for developing ways to enhance maternal sensitivity and to maximize the developmental potential of infants. Knowledge of the attributes of maternal sensitivity identified in this concept analysis may be helpful for constructing measuring items or dimensions.

Preliminary Hazard Analysis applied to Uranium Hexafluoride - UF6 production plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomzhinsky, David; Bichmacher, Ricardo; Braganca Junior, Alvaro; Peixoto, Orpet Jose

1996-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to present the results of the Preliminary hazard Analysis applied to the UF 6 Production Process, which is part of the UF 6 Conversion Plant. The Conversion Plant has designed to produce a high purified UF 6 in accordance with the nuclear grade standards. This Preliminary Hazard Analysis is the first step in the Risk Management Studies, which are under current development. The analysis evaluated the impact originated from the production process in the plant operators, members of public, equipment, systems and installations as well as the environment. (author)

Preliminary conceptual design and analysis on KALIMER reactor structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jong Bum

1996-10-01

The objectives of this study are to perform preliminary conceptual design and structural analyses for KALIMER (Korea Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor) reactor structures to assess the design feasibility and to identify detailed analysis requirements. KALIMER thermal hydraulic system analysis results and neutronic analysis results are not available at present, only-limited preliminary structural analyses have been performed with the assumptions on the thermal loads. The responses of reactor vessel and reactor internal structures were based on the temperature difference of core inlet and outlet and on engineering judgments. Thermal stresses from the assumed temperatures were calculated using ANSYS code through parametric finite element heat transfer and elastic stress analyses. While, based on the results of preliminary conceptual design and structural analyses, the ASME Code limits for the reactor structures were satisfied for the pressure boundary, the needs for inelastic analyses were indicated for evaluation of design adequacy of the support barrel and the thermal liner. To reduce thermal striping effects in the bottom are of UIS due to up-flowing sodium form reactor core, installation of Inconel-718 liner to the bottom area was proposed, and to mitigate thermal shock loads, additional stainless steel liner was also suggested. The design feasibilities of these were validated through simplified preliminary analyses. In conceptual design phase, the implementation of these results will be made for the design of the reactor structures and the reactor internal structures in conjunction with the thermal hydraulic, neutronic, and seismic analyses results. 4 tabs., 24 figs., 4 refs. (Author)

Preliminary Seismic Response and Fragility Analysis for DACS Cabinet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oh, Jinho; Kwag, Shinyoung; Lee, Jongmin; Kim, Youngki [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2013-05-15

A DACS cabinet is installed in the main control room. The objective of this paper is to perform seismic analyses and evaluate the preliminary structural integrity and seismic capacity of the DACS cabinet. For this purpose, a 3-D finite element model of the DACS cabinet was developed and its modal analyses are carried out to analyze the dynamic characteristics. The response spectrum analyses and the related safety evaluation are then performed for the DACS cabinet subject to seismic loads. Finally, the seismic margin and seismic fragility of the DACS cabinet are investigated. A seismic analysis and preliminary structural integrity of the DACS cabinet under self weight and SSE load have been evaluated. For this purpose, 3-D finite element models of the DACS cabinet were developed. A modal analysis, response spectrum analysis, and seismic fragility analysis were then performed. From the structural analysis results, the DACS cabinet is below the structural design limit of under SSE 0.3g, and can structurally withstand until less than SSE 3g based on an evaluation of the maximum effective stresses. The HCLPF capacity for the DGRS of the SSE 0.3g is 0.55g. A modal analysis, response spectrum analysis, and seismic fragility analysis were then performed. From the structural analysis results, the DACS cabinet is below the structural design limit of under SSE 0.3g, and can structurally withstand until less than SSE 3g based on an evaluation of the maximum effective stresses. The HCLPF capacity for the DGRS of the SSE 0.3g is 0.55g. Therefore, it is concluded that the DACS cabinet was safely designed in that no damage to the preliminary structural integrity and sufficient seismic margin is expected.

Preliminary Seismic Response and Fragility Analysis for DACS Cabinet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Jinho; Kwag, Shinyoung; Lee, Jongmin; Kim, Youngki

2013-01-01

A DACS cabinet is installed in the main control room. The objective of this paper is to perform seismic analyses and evaluate the preliminary structural integrity and seismic capacity of the DACS cabinet. For this purpose, a 3-D finite element model of the DACS cabinet was developed and its modal analyses are carried out to analyze the dynamic characteristics. The response spectrum analyses and the related safety evaluation are then performed for the DACS cabinet subject to seismic loads. Finally, the seismic margin and seismic fragility of the DACS cabinet are investigated. A seismic analysis and preliminary structural integrity of the DACS cabinet under self weight and SSE load have been evaluated. For this purpose, 3-D finite element models of the DACS cabinet were developed. A modal analysis, response spectrum analysis, and seismic fragility analysis were then performed. From the structural analysis results, the DACS cabinet is below the structural design limit of under SSE 0.3g, and can structurally withstand until less than SSE 3g based on an evaluation of the maximum effective stresses. The HCLPF capacity for the DGRS of the SSE 0.3g is 0.55g. A modal analysis, response spectrum analysis, and seismic fragility analysis were then performed. From the structural analysis results, the DACS cabinet is below the structural design limit of under SSE 0.3g, and can structurally withstand until less than SSE 3g based on an evaluation of the maximum effective stresses. The HCLPF capacity for the DGRS of the SSE 0.3g is 0.55g. Therefore, it is concluded that the DACS cabinet was safely designed in that no damage to the preliminary structural integrity and sufficient seismic margin is expected

Parametric sensitivity analysis of an agro-economic model of management of irrigation water

Science.gov (United States)

El Ouadi, Ihssan; Ouazar, Driss; El Menyari, Younesse

2015-04-01

The current work aims to build an analysis and decision support tool for policy options concerning the optimal allocation of water resources, while allowing a better reflection on the issue of valuation of water by the agricultural sector in particular. Thus, a model disaggregated by farm type was developed for the rural town of Ait Ben Yacoub located in the east Morocco. This model integrates economic, agronomic and hydraulic data and simulates agricultural gross margin across in this area taking into consideration changes in public policy and climatic conditions, taking into account the competition for collective resources. To identify the model input parameters that influence over the results of the model, a parametric sensitivity analysis is performed by the "One-Factor-At-A-Time" approach within the "Screening Designs" method. Preliminary results of this analysis show that among the 10 parameters analyzed, 6 parameters affect significantly the objective function of the model, it is in order of influence: i) Coefficient of crop yield response to water, ii) Average daily gain in weight of livestock, iii) Exchange of livestock reproduction, iv) maximum yield of crops, v) Supply of irrigation water and vi) precipitation. These 6 parameters register sensitivity indexes ranging between 0.22 and 1.28. Those results show high uncertainties on these parameters that can dramatically skew the results of the model or the need to pay particular attention to their estimates. Keywords: water, agriculture, modeling, optimal allocation, parametric sensitivity analysis, Screening Designs, One-Factor-At-A-Time, agricultural policy, climate change.

Preliminary Hazards Analysis Plasma Hearth Process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aycock, M.; Coordes, D.; Russell, J.; TenBrook, W.; Yimbo, P.

1993-11-01

This Preliminary Hazards Analysis (PHA) for the Plasma Hearth Process (PHP) follows the requirements of United States Department of Energy (DOE) Order 5480.23 (DOE, 1992a), DOE Order 5480.21 (DOE, 1991d), DOE Order 5480.22 (DOE, 1992c), DOE Order 5481.1B (DOE, 1986), and the guidance provided in DOE Standards DOE-STD-1027-92 (DOE, 1992b). Consideration is given to ft proposed regulations published as 10 CFR 830 (DOE, 1993) and DOE Safety Guide SG 830.110 (DOE, 1992b). The purpose of performing a PRA is to establish an initial hazard categorization for a DOE nuclear facility and to identify those processes and structures which may have an impact on or be important to safety. The PHA is typically performed during and provides input to project conceptual design. The PRA then is followed by a Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) performed during Title I and II design. This PSAR then leads to performance of the Final Safety Analysis Report performed during construction, testing, and acceptance and completed before routine operation. Radiological assessments indicate that a PHP facility, depending on the radioactive material inventory, may be an exempt, Category 3, or Category 2 facility. The calculated impacts would result in no significant impact to offsite personnel or the environment. Hazardous material assessments indicate that a PHP facility will be a Low Hazard facility having no significant impacts either onsite or offsite to personnel and the environment

Summary of the Preliminary Analysis of Savannah River Depleted Uranium Trioxide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

This report summarizes a preliminary special analysis of the Savannah River Depleted Uranium Trioxide waste stream (SVRSURANIUM03, Revision 2). The analysis is considered preliminary because a final waste profile has not been submitted for review. The special analysis is performed to determine the acceptability of the waste stream for shallow land burial at the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The Savannah River Depleted Uranium Trioxide waste stream requires a special analysis because the waste stream's sum of fractions exceeds one. The 99Tc activity concentration is 98 percent of the NNSS Waste Acceptance Criteria and the largest single contributor to the sum of fractions.

EH AND S ANALYSIS OF DYE-SENSITIZED PHOTOVOLTAIC SOLAR CELL PRODUCTION

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

BOWERMAN, B.; FTHENAKIS, V.

2001-01-01

Photovoltaic solar cells based on a dye-sensitized nanocrystalline titanium dioxide photoelectrode have been researched and reported since the early 1990's. Commercial production of dye-sensitized photovoltaic solar cells has recently been reported in Australia. In this report, current manufacturing methods are described, and estimates are made of annual chemical use and emissions during production. Environmental, health and safety considerations for handling these materials are discussed. This preliminary EH and S evaluation of dye-sensitized titanium dioxide solar cells indicates that some precautions will be necessary to mitigate hazards that could result in worker exposure. Additional information required for a more complete assessment is identified

Interference and Sensitivity Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

VanderWeele, Tyler J; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Halloran, M Elizabeth

2014-11-01

Causal inference with interference is a rapidly growing area. The literature has begun to relax the "no-interference" assumption that the treatment received by one individual does not affect the outcomes of other individuals. In this paper we briefly review the literature on causal inference in the presence of interference when treatments have been randomized. We then consider settings in which causal effects in the presence of interference are not identified, either because randomization alone does not suffice for identification, or because treatment is not randomized and there may be unmeasured confounders of the treatment-outcome relationship. We develop sensitivity analysis techniques for these settings. We describe several sensitivity analysis techniques for the infectiousness effect which, in a vaccine trial, captures the effect of the vaccine of one person on protecting a second person from infection even if the first is infected. We also develop two sensitivity analysis techniques for causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding which generalize analogous techniques when interference is absent. These two techniques for unmeasured confounding are compared and contrasted.

Preliminary Analysis of Google+'s Privacy

OpenAIRE

Mahmood, Shah; Desmedt, Yvo

2011-01-01

In this paper we provide a preliminary analysis of Google+ privacy. We identified that Google+ shares photo metadata with users who can access the photograph and discuss its potential impact on privacy. We also identified that Google+ encourages the provision of other names including maiden name, which may help criminals performing identity theft. We show that Facebook lists are a superset of Google+ circles, both functionally and logically, even though Google+ provides a better user interfac...

Preliminary evidence for a change in spectral sensitivity of the circadian system at night

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Parsons Robert H

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background It is well established that the absolute sensitivity of the suprachiasmatic nucleus to photic stimulation received through the retino-hypothalamic tract changes throughout the 24-hour day. It is also believed that a combination of classical photoreceptors (rods and cones and melanopsin-containing retinal ganglion cells participate in circadian phototransduction, with a spectral sensitivity peaking between 440 and 500 nm. It is still unknown, however, whether the spectral sensitivity of the circadian system also changes throughout the solar day. Reported here is a new study that was designed to determine whether the spectral sensitivity of the circadian retinal phototransduction mechanism, measured through melatonin suppression and iris constriction, varies at night. Methods Human adult males were exposed to a high-pressure mercury lamp [450 lux (170 μW/cm2 at the cornea] and an array of blue light emitting diodes [18 lux (29 μW/cm2 at the cornea] during two nighttime experimental sessions. Both melatonin suppression and iris constriction were measured during and after a one-hour light exposure just after midnight and just before dawn. Results An increase in the percentage of melatonin suppression and an increase in pupil constriction for the mercury source relative to the blue light source at night were found, suggesting a temporal change in the contribution of photoreceptor mechanisms leading to melatonin suppression and, possibly, iris constriction by light in humans. Conclusion The preliminary data presented here suggest a change in the spectral sensitivity of circadian phototransduction mechanisms at two different times of the night. These findings are hypothesized to be the result of a change in the sensitivity of the melanopsin-expressing retinal ganglion cells to light during the night.

The Scrap Tire Problem: A Preliminary Economic Analysis (1985)

Science.gov (United States)

The purpose of the study was to conduct a preliminary economic analysis of the social benefits of EPA action to require more appropriate disposal of scrap tires versus the social costs of such an action.

Contributions to sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacques, J.

2005-12-01

Two topics are studied in this thesis: sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis. Global sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model studies how the output variables of this last react to variations of its inputs. The methods based on the study of the variance quantify the part of variance of the response of the model due to each input variable and each subset of input variables. The first subject of this thesis is the impact of a model uncertainty on results of a sensitivity analysis. Two particular forms of uncertainty are studied: that due to a change of the model of reference, and that due to the use of a simplified model with the place of the model of reference. A second problem was studied during this thesis, that of models with correlated inputs. Indeed, classical sensitivity indices not having significance (from an interpretation point of view) in the presence of correlation of the inputs, we propose a multidimensional approach consisting in expressing the sensitivity of the output of the model to groups of correlated variables. Applications in the field of nuclear engineering illustrate this work. Generalized discriminant analysis consists in classifying the individuals of a test sample in groups, by using information contained in a training sample, when these two samples do not come from the same population. This work extends existing methods in a Gaussian context to the case of binary data. An application in public health illustrates the utility of generalized discrimination models thus defined. (author)

The Organic Food Market and Marketing Initiatives in Europe: a Preliminary Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Niels Heine; Nielsen, Thorkild; Bruselius-Jensen, Maria Louisa

2003-01-01

Kristensen NH, Nielsen T, Bruselius-Jensen M, Scheperlen-Bøgh P, Beckie M, Foster C, Midmore P, Padel S (2002): The Organic Food Market and Marketing Initiatives in Europe: a Preliminary Analysis. Final Report to the EU Commission......Kristensen NH, Nielsen T, Bruselius-Jensen M, Scheperlen-Bøgh P, Beckie M, Foster C, Midmore P, Padel S (2002): The Organic Food Market and Marketing Initiatives in Europe: a Preliminary Analysis. Final Report to the EU Commission...

Object-sensitive Type Analysis of PHP

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van der Hoek, Henk Erik; Hage, J

2015-01-01

In this paper we develop an object-sensitive type analysis for PHP, based on an extension of the notion of monotone frameworks to deal with the dynamic aspects of PHP, and following the framework of Smaragdakis et al. for object-sensitive analysis. We consider a number of instantiations of the

Preliminary Analysis of a Loss of Condenser Vacuum Accident Using the MARS-KS Code

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Jieun Kim; Bang, Young Seok; Oh, Deog Yeon; Kim, Kap; Woo, Sweng-Wong [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

In accordance with revision of NUREG-0800 of USNRC, the area of review for loss of condenser vacuum(LOCV) accident has been expanded to analyze both peak pressures of primary and secondary system separately. Currently, the analysis of LOCV accident, which is caused by malfunction of condenser, has been focused to fuel cladding integrity and peak pressure in the primary system. In this paper, accident analysis for LOCV using MARS-KS code were conducted to support the licensing review on transient behavior of secondary system pressure of APR1400 plant. The accident analysis for the loss of condenser vacuum (LOCV) of APR1400 was conducted with the MARS-KS code to support the review on the pressure behavior of primary and secondary system. Total four cases which have different combination of availability of offsite power and the pressurizer spray are considered. The preliminary analysis results shows that the initial conditions or assumptions which concludes the severe consequence are different for each viewpoint, and in some cases, it could be confront with each viewpoint. Therefore, with regard to the each acceptance criteria, figuring out and sensitivity analysis of the initial conditions and assumptions for system pressure would be necessary.

Practical Recommendations for the Preliminary Design Analysis of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Interior-to-exterior shear ratios for equal and unequal bay frames, as well as column inflection points were obtained to serve as practical aids for preliminary analysis/design of fixed-feet multistory sway frames. Equal and unequal bay five story frames were analysed to show the validity of the recommended design ...

Failure mode analysis of preliminary design of ITER divertor impurity monitor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitazawa, Sin-iti; Ogawa, Hiroaki

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Divertor impurity influx monitor for ITER (DIM) is procured by JADA. • DIM is designed to observe light from nuclear fusion plasma directly. • DIM is under preliminary design phase. • Failure mode of DIM was prepared for RAMI analysis. • RAMI analysis on DIM was performed to reduce technical risks. - Abstract: The objective of the divertor impurity influx monitor (DIM) for ITER is to measure the parameters of impurities and hydrogen isotopes (tritium, deuterium, and hydrogen) in divertor plasma using visible and UV spectroscopic techniques in the 200–1000 nm wavelength range. In ITER, special provisions are required to ensure accuracy and full functionality of the diagnostic components under harsh conditions (high temperature, high magnetic field, high vacuum condition, and high radiation field). Japan Domestic Agency is preparing the preliminary design of the ITER DIM system, which will be installed in the upper, equatorial and lower ports. The optical and mechanical designs of the DIM are conducted to fit ITER’s requirements. The optical and mechanical designs meet the requirements of spatial resolution. Some auxiliary systems were examined via prototyping. The preliminary design of the ITER DIM system was evaluated by RAMI analysis. The availability of the designed system is adequately high to satisfy the project requirements. However, some equipment does not have certain designs, and this may cause potential technical risks. The preliminary design should be modified to reduce technical risks and to prepare the final design.

Preliminary Hazards Analysis of K-Basin Fuel Encapsulation and Storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strickland, G.C.

1994-01-01

This Preliminary Hazards Analysis (PHA) systematically examines the K-Basin facilities and their supporting systems for hazards created by abnormal operating conditions and external events (e.g., earthquakes) which have the potential for causing undesirable consequences to the facility worker, the onsite individual, or the public. The operational activities examined are fuel encapsulation, fuel storage and cooling. Encapsulation of sludges in the basins is not examined. A team of individuals from Westinghouse produced a set of Hazards and Operability (HAZOP) tables documenting their examination of abnormal process conditions in the systems and activities examined in K-Basins. The purpose of this report is to reevaluate and update the HAZOP in the original Preliminary Hazard Analysis of K-Basin Fuel Encapsulation and Storage originally developed in 1991

Protective Alternatives of SMR against Extreme Threat Scenario – A Preliminary Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shohet, I.M.; Ornai, D.; Gal, E.; Ronen, Y.; Vidra, M.

2014-01-01

The article presents a preliminary risk analysis of the main features in NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) that includes SMR - Small and Modular Reactors, given an extreme threat scenario. A review of the structure and systems of the SMR is followed by systematic definitions and analysis of the threat scenario to which a preliminary risk analysis was carried out. The article outlines the basic events caused by the referred threat scenario, which had led to possible failure mechanisms according to FTA (Fault-Tree-Analysis),critical protective circuits, and todetecting critical topics for the protection and safety of the reactor

Ethical sensitivity in professional practice: concept analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Weaver, Kathryn; Morse, Janice; Mitcham, Carl

2008-06-01

This paper is a report of a concept analysis of ethical sensitivity. Ethical sensitivity enables nurses and other professionals to respond morally to the suffering and vulnerability of those receiving professional care and services. Because of its significance to nursing and other professional practices, ethical sensitivity deserves more focused analysis. A criteria-based method oriented toward pragmatic utility guided the analysis of 200 papers and books from the fields of nursing, medicine, psychology, dentistry, clinical ethics, theology, education, law, accounting or business, journalism, philosophy, political and social sciences and women's studies. This literature spanned 1970 to 2006 and was sorted by discipline and concept dimensions and examined for concept structure and use across various contexts. The analysis was completed in September 2007. Ethical sensitivity in professional practice develops in contexts of uncertainty, client suffering and vulnerability, and through relationships characterized by receptivity, responsiveness and courage on the part of professionals. Essential attributes of ethical sensitivity are identified as moral perception, affectivity and dividing loyalties. Outcomes include integrity preserving decision-making, comfort and well-being, learning and professional transcendence. Our findings promote ethical sensitivity as a type of practical wisdom that pursues client comfort and professional satisfaction with care delivery. The analysis and resulting model offers an inclusive view of ethical sensitivity that addresses some of the limitations with prior conceptualizations.

Multitarget global sensitivity analysis of n-butanol combustion.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Dingyu D Y; Davis, Michael J; Skodje, Rex T

2013-05-02

A model for the combustion of butanol is studied using a recently developed theoretical method for the systematic improvement of the kinetic mechanism. The butanol mechanism includes 1446 reactions, and we demonstrate that it is straightforward and computationally feasible to implement a full global sensitivity analysis incorporating all the reactions. In addition, we extend our previous analysis of ignition-delay targets to include species targets. The combination of species and ignition targets leads to multitarget global sensitivity analysis, which allows for a more complete mechanism validation procedure than we previously implemented. The inclusion of species sensitivity analysis allows for a direct comparison between reaction pathway analysis and global sensitivity analysis.

Grid-connected ICES: preliminary feasibility analysis and evaluation. Volume 2. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1977-06-30

The HEAL Complex in New Orleans will serve as a Demonstration Community for which the ICES Demonstration System will be designed. The complex is a group of hospitals, clinics, research facilities, and medical educational facilities. The five tasks reported on are: preliminary energy analysis; preliminary institutional assessment; conceptual design; firming-up of commitments; and detailed work management plan.

Repository Subsurface Preliminary Fire Hazard Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Logan, Richard C.

2001-01-01

This fire hazard analysis identifies preliminary design and operations features, fire, and explosion hazards, and provides a reasonable basis to establish the design requirements of fire protection systems during development and emplacement phases of the subsurface repository. This document follows the Technical Work Plan (TWP) (CRWMS M and O 2001c) which was prepared in accordance with AP-2.21Q, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities''; Attachment 4 of AP-ESH-008, ''Hazards Analysis System''; and AP-3.11Q, ''Technical Reports''. The objective of this report is to establish the requirements that provide for facility nuclear safety and a proper level of personnel safety and property protection from the effects of fire and the adverse effects of fire-extinguishing agents

Preliminary analysis of alternative fuel cycles for proliferation evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Steindler, M. J.; Ripfel, H. C.F.; Rainey, R. H.

1977-01-01

The ERDA Division of Nuclear Research and Applications proposed 67 nuclear fuel cycles for assessment as to their nonproliferation potential. The object of the assessment was to determine which fuel cycles pose inherently low risk for nuclear weapon proliferation while retaining the major benefits of nuclear energy. This report is a preliminary analysis of these fuel cycles to develop the fuel-recycle data that will complement reactor data, environmental data, and political considerations, which must be included in the overall evaluation. This report presents the preliminary evaluations from ANL, HEDL, ORNL, and SRL and is the basis for a continuing in-depth study. (DLC)

A preliminary analysis of the reactor-based plutonium disposition alternative deployment schedules

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zurn, R.M.

1997-09-01

This paper discusses the preliminary analysis of the implementation schedules of the reactor-based plutonium disposition alternatives. These schedule analyses are a part of a larger process to examine the nine decision criteria used to determine the most appropriate method of disposing of U.S. surplus weapons plutonium. The preliminary analysis indicates that the mission durations for the reactor-based alternatives range from eleven years to eighteen years and the initial mission fuel assemblies containing surplus weapons-usable plutonium could be loaded into the reactors between nine and fourteen years after the Record of Decision

Techniques for sensitivity analysis of SYVAC results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prust, J.O.

1985-05-01

Sensitivity analysis techniques may be required to examine the sensitivity of SYVAC model predictions to the input parameter values, the subjective probability distributions assigned to the input parameters and to the relationship between dose and the probability of fatal cancers plus serious hereditary disease in the first two generations of offspring of a member of the critical group. This report mainly considers techniques for determining the sensitivity of dose and risk to the variable input parameters. The performance of a sensitivity analysis technique may be improved by decomposing the model and data into subsets for analysis, making use of existing information on sensitivity and concentrating sampling in regions the parameter space that generates high doses or risks. A number of sensitivity analysis techniques are reviewed for their application to the SYVAC model including four techniques tested in an earlier study by CAP Scientific for the SYVAC project. This report recommends the development now of a method for evaluating the derivative of dose and parameter value and extending the Kruskal-Wallis technique to test for interactions between parameters. It is also recommended that the sensitivity of the output of each sub-model of SYVAC to input parameter values should be examined. (author)

Preliminary analysis of the transient overpower accident for CRBRP. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kastenberg, W.E.; Frank, M.V.

1975-07-01

A preliminary analysis of the transient overpower accident for the Clinch River Breeder Reactor Plant (CRBRP) is presented. Several uncertainties in the analysis and the estimation of ramp rates during the transition to disassembly are discussed. The major conclusions are summarized

Sensitivity analysis of a PWR pressurizer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bruel, Renata Nunes

1997-01-01

A sensitivity analysis relative to the parameters and modelling of the physical process in a PWR pressurizer has been performed. The sensitivity analysis was developed by implementing the key parameters and theoretical model lings which generated a comprehensive matrix of influences of each changes analysed. The major influences that have been observed were the flashing phenomenon and the steam condensation on the spray drops. The present analysis is also applicable to the several theoretical and experimental areas. (author)

Sensitivity Analysis on Elbow Piping Components in Seismically Isolated NPP under Seismic Loading

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ju, Hee Kun; Hahm, Dae Gi; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Jeon, Bub Gyu; Kim, Nam Sik [Pusan National University, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

In this study, the FE model is verified using specimen test results and simulation with parameter variations are conducted. Effective parameters will randomly sampled and used as input values for simulations to be applied to the fragility analysis. pipelines are representative of them because they could undergo larger displacements when they are supported on both isolated and non-isolated structures simultaneously. Especially elbows are critical components of pipes under severed loading conditions such as earthquake action because strain is accumulated on them during the repeated bending of the pipe. Therefore, seismic performance of pipe elbow components should be examined thoroughly based on the fragility analysis. Fragility assessment of interface pipe should take different sources of uncertainty into account. However, selection of important sources and repeated tests with many random input values are very time consuming and expensive, so numerical analysis is commonly used. In the present study, finite element (FE) model of elbow component will be validated using the dynamic test results of elbow components. Using the verified model, sensitivity analysis will be implemented as a preliminary process of seismic fragility of piping system. Several important input parameters are selected and how the uncertainty of them are apportioned to the uncertainty of the elbow response is to be studied. Piping elbows are critical components under cyclic loading conditions as they are subjected large displacement. In a seismically isolated NPP, seismic capacity of piping system should be evaluated with caution. Seismic fragility assessment preliminarily needs parameter sensitivity analysis about the output of interest with different input parameter values.

Sensitivity of permanent meadows areas. Preliminary report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pourcelot, L.

2006-01-01

The objective of this work proposed in the framework of the S.E.N.S.I.B. project on the permanent meadows areas is to compare the sensitivity of these surfaces and cheese maker sector which are associated with them, and to identify the processes which determine this sensitivity. The realization of this objective will lean on certain data of activities acquired recently by the I.R.S.N. (compartments: soils, herb, milk and cheese), as well as on new measures, on three sites: Saint-Laurent-de-Geris ( West), Beaune-Le-Froid ( center), and Massif of Jura (East). Two scales of transfers observation and sensitivity are retained. In a first time, the sensitivity of meadows areas will studied at the regional scale, from data acquired in the Massif du Jura ( between 300 and 1200 metres up). In a second time, a study will allow to compare the sensitivity of three areas retained (West, Center, East) at the national scale. The expertise will be focused on the factors of sensitivity of the transfer soil-herb and the factors of sensitivity bound to the cheese makers sectors. The data of the already available zones of study create strong variabilities of the rates of 137 Cs transfer in the interfaces soil / herb and herb / milk, letting suppose that the nature of soils, the quantity and the quality of food ingested by the cattle constitutes dominating factors of sensitivity. Besides, the size of the basin of milk collection, extremely variable from a site of study in the other one, has to influence the contamination of cheeses and as such, it establishes an important factor of sensitivity of the cheese makers sector. (N.C.)

Sensitivity Analysis of a Physiochemical Interaction Model ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this analysis, we will study the sensitivity analysis due to a variation of the initial condition and experimental time. These results which we have not seen elsewhere are analysed and discussed quantitatively. Keywords: Passivation Rate, Sensitivity Analysis, ODE23, ODE45 J. Appl. Sci. Environ. Manage. June, 2012, Vol.

Waste Feed Delivery System Phase 1 Preliminary RAM Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DYKES, A.A.

2000-01-01

This report presents the updated results of the preliminary reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM) analysis of selected waste feed delivery (WFD) operations to be performed by the Tank Farm Contractor (TFC) during Phase I activities in support of the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). For planning purposes, waste feed tanks are being divided into five classes in accordance with the type of waste in each tank and the activities required to retrieve, qualify, and transfer waste feed. This report reflects the baseline design and operating concept, as of the beginning of Fiscal Year 2000, for the delivery of feed from three of these classes, represented by source tanks 241-AN-102, 241-AZ-101 and 241-AN-105. The preliminary RAM analysis quantifies the potential schedule delay associated with operations and maintenance (OBM) field activities needed to accomplish these operations. The RAM analysis is preliminary because the system design, process definition, and activity planning are in a state of evolution. The results are being used to support the continuing development of an O and M Concept tailored to the unique requirements of the WFD Program, which is being documented in various volumes of the Waste Feed Delivery Technical Basis (Carlson. 1999, Rasmussen 1999, and Orme 2000). The waste feed provided to the WTP must: (1) meet limits for chemical and radioactive constituents based on pre-established compositional envelopes (i.e., feed quality); (2) be in acceptable quantities within a prescribed sequence to meet feed quantities; and (3) meet schedule requirements (i.e., feed timing). In the absence of new criteria related to acceptable schedule performance due to the termination of the TWRS Privatization Contract, the original criteria from the Tank Waste Remediation System (77443s) Privatization Contract (DOE 1998) will continue to be used for this analysis

Preliminary CFD Analysis for HVAC System Design of a Containment Building

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Son, Sung Man; Choi, Choengryul [ELSOLTEC, Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Choo, Jae Ho; Hong, Moonpyo; Kim, Hyungseok [KEPCO Engineering and Construction, Gimcheon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning) system has been mainly designed based on overall heat balance and averaging concepts, which is simple and useful for designing overall system. However, such a method has the disadvantage that cannot predict the local flow and temperature distributions in a containment building. In this study, a CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) preliminary analysis is carried out to obtain detailed flow and temperature distributions in a containment building and to ensure that such information can be obtained via CFD analysis. This approach can be useful for hydrogen analysis in an accident related to hydrogen released into a containment building. In this study, CFD preliminary analysis has been performed to obtain the detailed information of the reactor containment building by using the CFD analysis techniques and to ensure that such information can be obtained via CFD analysis. We confirmed that CFD analysis can offer enough detailed information about flow patterns and temperature field and that CFD technique is a useful tool for HVAC design of nuclear power plants.

Crystallization and preliminary X-ray diffraction analysis of rat autotaxin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Day, Jacqueline E.; Hall, Troii; Pegg, Lyle E.; Benson, Timothy E.; Hausmann, Jens; Kamtekar, Satwik

2010-01-01

Autotaxin (ATX), a pyrophosphatase/phosphodiesterase enzyme, is a promising drug target for many indications and is only distantly related to enzymes of previously determined structure. Here, the cloning, expression, purification, crystallization and preliminary diffraction analysis of ATX are reported. Rat autotaxin has been cloned, expressed, purified to homogeneity and crystallized via hanging-drop vapour diffusion using PEG 3350 as precipitant and ammonium iodide and sodium thiocyanate as salts. The crystals diffracted to a maximum resolution of 2.05 Å and belonged to space group P1, with unit-cell parameters a = 53.8, b = 63.3, c = 70.5 Å, α = 98.8, β = 106.2, γ = 99.8°. Preliminary X-ray diffraction analysis indicated the presence of one molecule per asymmetric unit, with a solvent content of 47%

Preliminary analysis of a 1:4 scale prestressed concrete containment vessel model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dameron, R.A.; Rashid, Y.R.; Luk, V.K.; Hessheimer, M.F.

1997-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories is conducting a research program to investigate the integrity of nuclear containment structures. As part of the program Sandia will construct an instrumented 1:4 scale model of a prestressed concrete containment vessel (PCCV) for pressurized water reactors (PWR), which will be pressure tested up to its ultimate capacity. One of the key program objectives is to develop validated methods to predict the structural performance of containment vessels when subjected to beyond design basis loadings. Analytical prediction of structural performance requires a stepwise, systematic approach that addresses all potential failure modes. The analysis effort includes two and three-dimensional nonlinear finite element analyses of the PCCV test model to evaluate its structural performance under very high internal pressurization. Such analyses have been performed using the nonlinear concrete constitutive model, ANACAP-U, in conjunction with the ABAQUS general purpose finite element code. The analysis effort is carried out in three phases: preliminary analysis; pretest prediction; and post-test data interpretation and analysis evaluation. The preliminary analysis phase serves to provide instrumentation support and identify candidate failure modes. The associated tasks include the preliminary prediction of failure pressure and probable failure locations and the development of models to be used in the detailed failure analyses. This paper describes the modeling approaches and some of the results obtained in the first phase of the analysis effort

Sensitivity Analysis of Viscoelastic Structures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.M.G. de Lima

2006-01-01

Full Text Available In the context of control of sound and vibration of mechanical systems, the use of viscoelastic materials has been regarded as a convenient strategy in many types of industrial applications. Numerical models based on finite element discretization have been frequently used in the analysis and design of complex structural systems incorporating viscoelastic materials. Such models must account for the typical dependence of the viscoelastic characteristics on operational and environmental parameters, such as frequency and temperature. In many applications, including optimal design and model updating, sensitivity analysis based on numerical models is a very usefull tool. In this paper, the formulation of first-order sensitivity analysis of complex frequency response functions is developed for plates treated with passive constraining damping layers, considering geometrical characteristics, such as the thicknesses of the multi-layer components, as design variables. Also, the sensitivity of the frequency response functions with respect to temperature is introduced. As an example, response derivatives are calculated for a three-layer sandwich plate and the results obtained are compared with first-order finite-difference approximations.

Extended forward sensitivity analysis of one-dimensional isothermal flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, M.; Zhao, H.

2013-01-01

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification is an important part of nuclear safety analysis. In this work, forward sensitivity analysis is used to compute solution sensitivities on 1-D fluid flow equations typical of those found in system level codes. Time step sensitivity analysis is included as a method for determining the accumulated error from time discretization. The ability to quantify numerical error arising from the time discretization is a unique and important feature of this method. By knowing the relative sensitivity of time step with other physical parameters, the simulation is allowed to run at optimized time steps without affecting the confidence of the physical parameter sensitivity results. The time step forward sensitivity analysis method can also replace the traditional time step convergence studies that are a key part of code verification with much less computational cost. One well-defined benchmark problem with manufactured solutions is utilized to verify the method; another test isothermal flow problem is used to demonstrate the extended forward sensitivity analysis process. Through these sample problems, the paper shows the feasibility and potential of using the forward sensitivity analysis method to quantify uncertainty in input parameters and time step size for a 1-D system-level thermal-hydraulic safety code. (authors)

SENSIT: a cross-section and design sensitivity and uncertainty analysis code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerstl, S.A.W.

1980-01-01

SENSIT computes the sensitivity and uncertainty of a calculated integral response (such as a dose rate) due to input cross sections and their uncertainties. Sensitivity profiles are computed for neutron and gamma-ray reaction cross sections of standard multigroup cross section sets and for secondary energy distributions (SEDs) of multigroup scattering matrices. In the design sensitivity mode, SENSIT computes changes in an integral response due to design changes and gives the appropriate sensitivity coefficients. Cross section uncertainty analyses are performed for three types of input data uncertainties: cross-section covariance matrices for pairs of multigroup reaction cross sections, spectral shape uncertainty parameters for secondary energy distributions (integral SED uncertainties), and covariance matrices for energy-dependent response functions. For all three types of data uncertainties SENSIT computes the resulting variance and estimated standard deviation in an integral response of interest, on the basis of generalized perturbation theory. SENSIT attempts to be more comprehensive than earlier sensitivity analysis codes, such as SWANLAKE

Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Helton, Jon Craig; Storlie, Curtis B.

2006-08-01

The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described: (1) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (2) additive models, (3) projection pursuit regression, and (4) recursive partitioning regression. The indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present.

Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, Jon Craig; Storlie, Curtis B.

2006-01-01

The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described: (1) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (2) additive models, (3) projection pursuit regression, and (4) recursive partitioning regression. The indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present

CONTENT ANALYSIS, DISCOURSE ANALYSIS, AND CONVERSATION ANALYSIS: PRELIMINARY STUDY ON CONCEPTUAL AND THEORETICAL METHODOLOGICAL DIFFERENCES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anderson Tiago Peixoto Gonçalves

2016-08-01

Full Text Available This theoretical essay aims to reflect on three models of text interpretation used in qualitative research, which is often confused in its concepts and methodologies (Content Analysis, Discourse Analysis, and Conversation Analysis. After the presentation of the concepts, the essay proposes a preliminary discussion on conceptual and theoretical methodological differences perceived between them. A review of the literature was performed to support the conceptual and theoretical methodological discussion. It could be verified that the models have differences related to the type of strategy used in the treatment of texts, the type of approach, and the appropriate theoretical position.

Preliminary design analysis of the ALT-II limiter for TEXTOR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koski, J.A.; Boyd, R.D.; Kempka, S.M.; Romig, A.D. Jr.; Smith, M.F.; Watson, R.D.; Whitley, J.B.; Conn, R.W.; Grotz, S.P.

1984-01-01

Installation of a large toroidal belt pump limiter, Advanced Limiter Test II (ALT-II), on the TEXTOR tokamak at Juelich, FRG is anticipated for early 1986. This paper discusses the preliminary mechanical design and materials considerations undertaken as part of the feasibility study phase for ALT-II. Since the actively cooled limiter blade is the component in direct contact with the plasma edge, and thus subject to the severe plasma environment, most preliminary design efforts have concentrated on analysis of the blade. The screening process which led to the recommended preliminary design consisting of a dispersion strenghthened copper or OFHC copper cover plate over an austenitic stainless steel base plate is discussed. A 1 to 3 mm thick low atomic number coating consisting of a graded plasma-sprayed Silicon Carbide-Aluminium composite is recommended subject to further experiment and evaluation. Thermal-hydraulic and stress analyses of the limiter blade are also discussed. (orig.)

Effects of sensitive electrical stimulation based cueing in Parkinson's disease: a preliminary study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benoît Sijobert

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This study aims to investigate the effect of a sensitive cueing on Freezing of Gait (FOG and gait disorders in subjects suffering from Parkinson’s disease (PD. 13 participants with Parkinson’s disease were equipped with an electrical stimulator and a foot mounted inertial measurement unit (IMU. An IMU based algorithm triggered in real time an electrical stimulus applied on the arch of foot at heel off detection. Starting from standing, subjects were asked to walk at their preferred speed on a path comprising 5m straight, u-turn and walk around tasks. Cueing globally decreased the time to achieve the different tasks in all the subjects. In “freezer” subjects, the time to complete the entire path was reduced by 19%. FOG events occurrence was lowered by 12% compared to baseline before and after cueing. This preliminary work showed a positive global effect of an electrical stimulation based cueing on gait and FOG in PD.

242Pu: Preliminary evaluation with consideration of 240Pu, and some sensitivity results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jary, J.; Lagrange, C.; Philis, C.

1978-01-01

A preliminary evaluation of 242 Pu nuclear data is presented for the neutron energy range from 10 keV to 20 MeV. The fission cross section is based upon recent experimental measurements on 242 Pu. The remaining cross sections have been calculated using various nuclear models with parameters obtained mainly by both fits on 240 Pu experimental data and general reflexions on the actinides. Particular care has been taken of the direct interactions. The laws of secondary neutron energy spectra and the average number of neutrons produced per fission have been evaluated. The results have been placed in ENDF/BIV format and combined with the low energy region of ENDF/BIV MAT = 1161 data to make complete the evaluation over the whole energy range 10 -5 eV - 20 MeV. Finally, the sensitivities of some of these nuclear data available for reactor calculations are given in terms of the variation of the calculated critical masses

Preliminary analysis of patent trends for magnetic fusion technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levine, L.O.; Ashton, W.B.; Campbell, R.S.

1984-02-01

This study presents a preliminary analysis of development trends in magnetic fusion technology based on data from US patents. The research is limited to identification and description of general patent activity and ownership characteristics for 373 patents. The results suggest that more detailed studies of fusion patents could provide useful R and D planning information

Sensitivity Analysis as a Tool to assess Energy-Water Nexus in India

Science.gov (United States)

Priyanka, P.; Banerjee, R.

2017-12-01

Rapid urbanization, population growth and related structural changes with-in the economy of a developing country act as a stressor on energy and water demand, which forms a well-established energy-water nexus. Energy-water nexus is thoroughly studied at various spatial scales viz. city level, river basin level and national level- to guide different stakeholders for sustainable management of energy and water. However, temporal dimensions of energy-water nexus at national level have not been thoroughly investigated because of unavailability of relevant time-series data. In this study we investigated energy-water nexus at national level using environmentally-extended input-output tables for Indian economy (2004-2013) as provided by EORA database. Perturbation based sensitivity analysis is proposed to highlight the critical nodes of interactions among economic sectors which is further linked to detect the synergistic effects of energy and water consumption. Technology changes (interpreted as change in value of nodes) results in modification of interactions among economic sectors and synergy is affected through direct as well as indirect effects. Indirect effects are not easily understood through preliminary examination of data, hence sensitivity analysis within an input-output framework is important to understand the indirect effects. Furthermore, time series data helps in developing the understanding on dynamics of synergistic effects. We identified the key sectors and technology changes for Indian economy which will provide the better decision support for policy makers about sustainable use of energy-water resources in India.

Comparative sequence analysis of acid sensitive/resistance proteins in Escherichia coli and Shigella flexneri

Science.gov (United States)

Manikandan, Selvaraj; Balaji, Seetharaaman; Kumar, Anil; Kumar, Rita

2007-01-01

The molecular basis for the survival of bacteria under extreme conditions in which growth is inhibited is a question of great current interest. A preliminary study was carried out to determine residue pattern conservation among the antiporters of enteric bacteria, responsible for extreme acid sensitivity especially in Escherichia coli and Shigella flexneri. Here we found the molecular evidence that proved the relationship between E. coli and S. flexneri. Multiple sequence alignment of the gadC coded acid sensitive antiporter showed many conserved residue patterns at regular intervals at the N-terminal region. It was observed that as the alignment approaches towards the C-terminal, the number of conserved residues decreases, indicating that the N-terminal region of this protein has much active role when compared to the carboxyl terminal. The motif, FHLVFFLLLGG, is well conserved within the entire gadC coded protein at the amino terminal. The motif is also partially conserved among other antiporters (which are not coded by gadC) but involved in acid sensitive/resistance mechanism. Phylogenetic cluster analysis proves the relationship of Escherichia coli and Shigella flexneri. The gadC coded proteins are converged as a clade and diverged from other antiporters belongs to the amino acid-polyamine-organocation (APC) superfamily. PMID:21670792

Preliminary assessment of terrestrial microalgae isolated from lichens as testing species for environmental monitoring: lichen phycobionts present high sensitivity to environmental micropollutants.

Science.gov (United States)

Domínguez-Morueco, N; Moreno, H; Barreno, E; Catalá, M

2014-01-01

Bioassays constitute a tool for pollution analysis providing a holistic approach and high-quality indication of the toxicity. Microbioassays allow evaluating the toxicity of many samples, implying lower costs and enabling routine monitoring and pollution control. But tests conducted so far are limited to the use of a small number of taxa. Lichens are excellent bioindicators of pollution with great ecological significance. Studies show that the phycobiont is more sensitive to pollutants than the mycobiont. Phycobiont have features such as adaptation to anhydrobiosis and relatively rapid growth in vitro, making them suitable for microbioassays. Our aim is to determine the sensitivity of phycobionts to the pharmaceutical micropollutants carbamazepine and diclofenac as a preliminary step for the development of a toxicity microbioassay based on phycobionts. Optical dispersion and chlorophyll autofluorescence were used as endpoints of toxicity on two algal species showing that suspensions present cyclic and taxon specific patterns of aggregation. Trebouxia TR9 suspensions present a very high grade of aggregation while Asterochloris erici cells do not. Both micropollutants alter optical properties of the suspensions of both species. No significant alteration of chlorophyll autofluorescence by carbamazepine is observed. A. erici chlorophyll autofluorescence is extremely sensitive to diclofenac but the effect is not dependent on the drug concentration or on the time of exposure. Differently, TR9 only shows punctual chlorophyll alterations. Fluctuations in optical dispersion may indicate changes in the population structure of the species, including reproductive strategy. A. erici seems more sensitive to micropollutants, is better characterized and is available from commercial collections. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Inc.

Preliminary analysis of the KAERI RCCS Experiment Using GAMMA+

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khoza, Samukelisiwe; Tak, Nam-il; Lim, Hong-Sik; Lee, Sung-Nam; Cho, Bong-Hyun; Kim, Jong-Hwan [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

This paper describes the analysis of the KAERI RCCS experiment. GAMMA+ code was used for analysis of the RCCS 1/4-scale natural cooling experimental facility designed and built at KAERI to verify the performance of the natural circulation phenomenon. The results obtained from the GAMMA+ analysis showing the temperature profiles and flow rates at steady state were compared with the results from the preliminary experiments conducted in this facility. GAMMA+ analysis for the KAERI RCCS experimental setup was carried out to understand its natural circulation behavior. The air flow rate at the chimney exit achieved by experiments was from to be almost same as that of GAMMA+.

LBLOCA sensitivity analysis using meta models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villamizar, M.; Sanchez-Saez, F.; Villanueva, J.F.; Carlos, S.; Sanchez, A.I.; Martorell, S.

2014-01-01

This paper presents an approach to perform the sensitivity analysis of the results of simulation of thermal hydraulic codes within a BEPU approach. Sensitivity analysis is based on the computation of Sobol' indices that makes use of a meta model, It presents also an application to a Large-Break Loss of Coolant Accident, LBLOCA, in the cold leg of a pressurized water reactor, PWR, addressing the results of the BEMUSE program and using the thermal-hydraulic code TRACE. (authors)

Preliminary thermal and stress analysis of the SINQ window

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heidenreich, G.

1991-01-01

Preliminary results of a finite element analysis for the SINQ proton beam window are presented. Temperatures and stresses are calculated in an axisymmetric model. As a result of these calculations, the H 2 O-cooled window (safety window) could be redesigned in such a way that plastic deformation resulting from excessive stress in some areas is avoided. (author)

Sensitivity analysis in life cycle assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Groen, E.A.; Heijungs, R.; Bokkers, E.A.M.; Boer, de I.J.M.

2014-01-01

Life cycle assessments require many input parameters and many of these parameters are uncertain; therefore, a sensitivity analysis is an essential part of the final interpretation. The aim of this study is to compare seven sensitivity methods applied to three types of case stud-ies. Two

Sensitivity analysis for matched pair analysis of binary data: From worst case to average case analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hasegawa, Raiden; Small, Dylan

2017-12-01

In matched observational studies where treatment assignment is not randomized, sensitivity analysis helps investigators determine how sensitive their estimated treatment effect is to some unmeasured confounder. The standard approach calibrates the sensitivity analysis according to the worst case bias in a pair. This approach will result in a conservative sensitivity analysis if the worst case bias does not hold in every pair. In this paper, we show that for binary data, the standard approach can be calibrated in terms of the average bias in a pair rather than worst case bias. When the worst case bias and average bias differ, the average bias interpretation results in a less conservative sensitivity analysis and more power. In many studies, the average case calibration may also carry a more natural interpretation than the worst case calibration and may also allow researchers to incorporate additional data to establish an empirical basis with which to calibrate a sensitivity analysis. We illustrate this with a study of the effects of cellphone use on the incidence of automobile accidents. Finally, we extend the average case calibration to the sensitivity analysis of confidence intervals for attributable effects. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Preliminary Disposal Analysis for Selected Accelerator Production of Tritium Waste Streams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ades, M.J.; England, J.L.

1998-06-01

A preliminary analysis was performed for two selected Accelerator Production of Tritium (APT) generated mixed and low-level waste streams to determine if one mixed low-level waste (MLLW) stream that includes the Mixed Waste Lead (MWL) can be disposed of at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and at the Hanford Site and if one low-level radioactive waste (LLW) stream, that includes the Tungsten waste stream (TWS) generated by the Tungsten Neutron Source modules and used in the Target/Blanket cavity vessel, can be disposed of in the LLW Vaults at the Savannah River Plant (SRP). The preliminary disposal analysis that the radionuclide concentrations of the two selected APT waste streams are not in full compliance with the Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC) and the Performance Assessment (PA) radionuclide limits of the disposal sites considered

High order depletion sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naguib, K.; Adib, M.; Morcos, H.N.

2002-01-01

A high order depletion sensitivity method was applied to calculate the sensitivities of build-up of actinides in the irradiated fuel due to cross-section uncertainties. An iteration method based on Taylor series expansion was applied to construct stationary principle, from which all orders of perturbations were calculated. The irradiated EK-10 and MTR-20 fuels at their maximum burn-up of 25% and 65% respectively were considered for sensitivity analysis. The results of calculation show that, in case of EK-10 fuel (low burn-up), the first order sensitivity was found to be enough to perform an accuracy of 1%. While in case of MTR-20 (high burn-up) the fifth order was found to provide 3% accuracy. A computer code SENS was developed to provide the required calculations

Purification, crystallization and preliminary X-ray structure analysis of the laccase from Ganoderma lucidum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lyashenko, Andrey V.; Belova, Oksana; Gabdulkhakov, Azat G.; Lashkov, Alexander A.; Lisov, Alexandr V.; Leontievsky, Alexey A.; Mikhailov, Al’bert M.

2011-01-01

The purification, crystallization and preliminary X-ray structure analysis of the laccase from G. lucidum are reported. The ligninolytic enzymes of the basidiomycetes play a key role in the global carbon cycle. A characteristic property of these enzymes is their broad substrate specificity, which has led to their use in various biotechnologies, thus stimulating research into the three-dimensional structures of ligninolytic enzymes. This paper presents the purification, crystallization and preliminary X-ray analysis of the laccase from the ligninolytic basidiomycete Ganoderma lucidum

Preliminary homogeneity study of in-house reference material using neutron activation analysis and X-ray fluorescence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gras, N.; Munoz, L.; Cassorla, V.; Castillo, P.

1993-01-01

Although many biological reference materials for quality control of trace element analysis are commercially available, there is still a need for additional local materials for special matrices. In the Latin American region a preliminary study has been commenced involving analytical strategies for the characterization of in-house reference material. A biological sample, prepared in Brazil, constitutes the first regional attempt to prepare reference material. It was analyzed by neutron activation analysis (NAA) and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) to verify its homogeneity. The determination of the trace elements and certain major elements was carried out by instrumental NAA. Trace elements such as Cd, Mn, Mo and Cu were determined using NAA with radiochemical separations to improve the sensitivity and precision. XRF was applied only to major constituents and some trace elements with concentration of more than 10 μg/g. From a total of 18 elements analyzed, only Fe, Cr and Sc were not homogeneously distributed. (orig.)

Automating sensitivity analysis of computer models using computer calculus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oblow, E.M.; Pin, F.G.

1986-01-01

An automated procedure for performing sensitivity analysis has been developed. The procedure uses a new FORTRAN compiler with computer calculus capabilities to generate the derivatives needed to set up sensitivity equations. The new compiler is called GRESS - Gradient Enhanced Software System. Application of the automated procedure with direct and adjoint sensitivity theory for the analysis of non-linear, iterative systems of equations is discussed. Calculational efficiency consideration and techniques for adjoint sensitivity analysis are emphasized. The new approach is found to preserve the traditional advantages of adjoint theory while removing the tedious human effort previously needed to apply this theoretical methodology. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of the automated procedure in numerical analysis and large-scale modelling sensitivity studies

Frontier Assignment for Sensitivity Analysis of Data Envelopment Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Naito, Akio; Aoki, Shingo; Tsuji, Hiroshi

To extend the sensitivity analysis capability for DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis), this paper proposes frontier assignment based DEA (FA-DEA). The basic idea of FA-DEA is to allow a decision maker to decide frontier intentionally while the traditional DEA and Super-DEA decide frontier computationally. The features of FA-DEA are as follows: (1) provides chances to exclude extra-influential DMU (Decision Making Unit) and finds extra-ordinal DMU, and (2) includes the function of the traditional DEA and Super-DEA so that it is able to deal with sensitivity analysis more flexibly. Simple numerical study has shown the effectiveness of the proposed FA-DEA and the difference from the traditional DEA.

Long-term gas and brine migration at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Preliminary sensitivity analyses for post-closure 40 CFR 268 (RCRA), May 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-12-01

This report describes preliminary probabilistic sensitivity analyses of long term gas and brine migration at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Because gas and brine are potential transport media for organic compounds and heavy metals, understanding two-phase flow in the repository and the surrounding Salado Formation is essential to evaluating long-term compliance with 40 CFR 268.6, which is the portion of the Land Disposal Restrictions of the Hazardous and Solid Waste Amendments to the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act that states the conditions for disposal of specified hazardous wastes. Calculations described here are designed to provide guidance to the WIPP Project by identifying important parameters and helping to recognize processes not yet modeled that may affect compliance. Based on these analyses, performance is sensitive to shaft-seal permeabilities, parameters affecting gas generation, and the conceptual model used for the disturbed rock zone surrounding the excavation. Brine migration is less likely to affect compliance with 40 CFR 268.6 than gas migration. However, results are preliminary, and additional iterations of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses will be required to provide the confidence needed for a defensible compliance evaluation. Specifically, subsequent analyses will explicitly include effects of salt creep and, when conceptual and computational models are available, pressure-dependent fracturing of anhydrite marker beds

Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castillo, Enrique; Minguez, Roberto; Castillo, Carmen

2008-01-01

The paper starts giving the main results that allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed in a general optimization problem, including sensitivities of the objective function, the primal and the dual variables with respect to data. In particular, general results are given for non-linear programming, and closed formulas for linear programming problems are supplied. Next, the methods are applied to a collection of civil engineering reliability problems, which includes a bridge crane, a retaining wall and a composite breakwater. Finally, the sensitivity analysis formulas are extended to calculus of variations problems and a slope stability problem is used to illustrate the methods

Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Castillo, Enrique [Department of Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences, University of Cantabria, Avda. Castros s/n., 39005 Santander (Spain)], E-mail: castie@unican.es; Minguez, Roberto [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: roberto.minguez@uclm.es; Castillo, Carmen [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: mariacarmen.castillo@uclm.es

2008-12-15

The paper starts giving the main results that allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed in a general optimization problem, including sensitivities of the objective function, the primal and the dual variables with respect to data. In particular, general results are given for non-linear programming, and closed formulas for linear programming problems are supplied. Next, the methods are applied to a collection of civil engineering reliability problems, which includes a bridge crane, a retaining wall and a composite breakwater. Finally, the sensitivity analysis formulas are extended to calculus of variations problems and a slope stability problem is used to illustrate the methods.

Sensitivity analysis for large-scale problems

Science.gov (United States)

Noor, Ahmed K.; Whitworth, Sandra L.

1987-01-01

The development of efficient techniques for calculating sensitivity derivatives is studied. The objective is to present a computational procedure for calculating sensitivity derivatives as part of performing structural reanalysis for large-scale problems. The scope is limited to framed type structures. Both linear static analysis and free-vibration eigenvalue problems are considered.

Crystallization and preliminary X-ray diffraction analysis of West Nile virus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaufmann, Bärbel; Plevka, Pavel; Kuhn, Richard J.; Rossmann, Michael G.

2010-01-01

Crystals of infectious West Nile virus were obtained and diffracted at best to about 25 Å resolution. Preliminary analysis of the diffraction pattern suggested tight hexagonal packing of the intact virus. West Nile virus, a human pathogen, is closely related to other medically important flaviviruses of global impact such as dengue virus. The infectious virus was purified from cell culture using polyethylene glycol (PEG) precipitation and density-gradient centrifugation. Thin amorphously shaped crystals of the lipid-enveloped virus were grown in quartz capillaries equilibrated by vapor diffusion. Crystal diffraction extended at best to a resolution of about 25 Å using synchrotron radiation. A preliminary analysis of the diffraction images indicated that the crystals had unit-cell parameters a ≃ b ≃ 480 Å, γ = 120°, suggesting a tight hexagonal packing of one virus particle per unit cell

Preliminary Safety Analysis Report for the Tokamak Physics Experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Motloch, C.G.; Bonney, R.F.; Levine, J.D.; Masson, L.S.; Commander, J.C.

1995-04-01

This Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR), includes an indication of the magnitude of facility hazards, complexity of facility operations, and the stage of the facility life-cycle. It presents the results of safety analyses, safety assurance programs, identified vulnerabilities, compensatory measures, and, in general, the rationale describing why the Tokamak Physics Experiment (TPX) can be safely operated. It discusses application of the graded approach to the TPX safety analysis, including the basis for using Department of Energy (DOE) Order 5480.23 and DOE-STD-3009-94 in the development of the PSAR

The role of sensitivity analysis in assessing uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crick, M.J.; Hill, M.D.

1987-01-01

Outside the specialist world of those carrying out performance assessments considerable confusion has arisen about the meanings of sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. In this paper we attempt to reduce this confusion. We then go on to review approaches to sensitivity analysis within the context of assessing uncertainty, and to outline the types of test available to identify sensitive parameters, together with their advantages and disadvantages. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors; they have not been formally endorsed by the National Radiological Protection Board and should not be interpreted as Board advice

ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2013 Preliminary Determination: Quantitative Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Halverson, Mark A.; Rosenberg, Michael I.; Wang, Weimin; Zhang, Jian; Mendon, Vrushali V.; Athalye, Rahul A.; Xie, YuLong; Hart, Reid; Goel, Supriya

2014-03-01

This report provides a preliminary quantitative analysis to assess whether buildings constructed according to the requirements of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2013 would result in energy savings compared with buildings constructed to ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2010.

Sensitivity Analysis of a Simplified Fire Dynamic Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt; Nielsen, Anker

2015-01-01

This paper discusses a method for performing a sensitivity analysis of parameters used in a simplified fire model for temperature estimates in the upper smoke layer during a fire. The results from the sensitivity analysis can be used when individual parameters affecting fire safety are assessed...

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis in health economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Baio, Gianluca; Dawid, A Philip

2015-12-01

Health economic evaluations have recently become an important part of the clinical and medical research process and have built upon more advanced statistical decision-theoretic foundations. In some contexts, it is officially required that uncertainty about both parameters and observable variables be properly taken into account, increasingly often by means of Bayesian methods. Among these, probabilistic sensitivity analysis has assumed a predominant role. The objective of this article is to review the problem of health economic assessment from the standpoint of Bayesian statistical decision theory with particular attention to the philosophy underlying the procedures for sensitivity analysis. © The Author(s) 2011.

TOLERANCE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: THIRTY YEARS LATER

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard E. Wendell

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Tolerance sensitivity analysis was conceived in 1980 as a pragmatic approach to effectively characterize a parametric region over which objective function coefficients and right-hand-side terms in linear programming could vary simultaneously and independently while maintaining the same optimal basis. As originally proposed, the tolerance region corresponds to the maximum percentage by which coefficients or terms could vary from their estimated values. Over the last thirty years the original results have been extended in a number of ways and applied in a variety of applications. This paper is a critical review of tolerance sensitivity analysis, including extensions and applications.

Sensitivity analysis for missing data in regulatory submissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Permutt, Thomas

2016-07-30

The National Research Council Panel on Handling Missing Data in Clinical Trials recommended that sensitivity analyses have to be part of the primary reporting of findings from clinical trials. Their specific recommendations, however, seem not to have been taken up rapidly by sponsors of regulatory submissions. The NRC report's detailed suggestions are along rather different lines than what has been called sensitivity analysis in the regulatory setting up to now. Furthermore, the role of sensitivity analysis in regulatory decision-making, although discussed briefly in the NRC report, remains unclear. This paper will examine previous ideas of sensitivity analysis with a view to explaining how the NRC panel's recommendations are different and possibly better suited to coping with present problems of missing data in the regulatory setting. It will also discuss, in more detail than the NRC report, the relevance of sensitivity analysis to decision-making, both for applicants and for regulators. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Cognitive Task Analysis of Business Jet Pilots' Weather Flying Behaviors: Preliminary Results

Science.gov (United States)

Latorella, Kara; Pliske, Rebecca; Hutton, Robert; Chrenka, Jason

2001-01-01

This report presents preliminary findings from a cognitive task analysis (CTA) of business aviation piloting. Results describe challenging weather-related aviation decisions and the information and cues used to support these decisions. Further, these results demonstrate the role of expertise in business aviation decision-making in weather flying, and how weather information is acquired and assessed for reliability. The challenging weather scenarios and novice errors identified in the results provide the basis for experimental scenarios and dependent measures to be used in future flight simulation evaluations of candidate aviation weather information systems. Finally, we analyzed these preliminary results to recommend design and training interventions to improve business aviation decision-making with weather information. The primary objective of this report is to present these preliminary findings and to document the extended CTA methodology used to elicit and represent expert business aviator decision-making with weather information. These preliminary findings will be augmented with results from additional subjects using this methodology. A summary of the complete results, absent the detailed treatment of methodology provided in this report, will be documented in a separate publication.

Preliminary safety analysis of the HTTR-IS nuclear hydrogen production system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sato, Hiroyuki; Ohashi, Hirofumi; Tazawa, Yujiro; Tachibana, Yukio; Sakaba, Nariaki

2010-06-01

Japan Atomic Energy Agency is planning to demonstrate hydrogen production by thermochemical water-splitting IS process utilizing heat from the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor HTTR (HTTR-IS system). The previous study identified that the HTTR modification due to the coupling of hydrogen production plant requires an additional safety review since the scenario and quantitative values of the evaluation items would be altered from the original HTTR safety review. Hence, preliminary safety analyses are conducted by using the system analysis code. Calculation results showed that evaluation items such as a coolant pressure, temperatures of heat transfer tubes at the pressure boundary, etc., did not exceed allowable values. Also, the peak fuel temperature did not exceed allowable value and therefore the reactor core was not damaged and cooled sufficiently. This report compiles calculation conditions, event scenarios and the calculation results of the preliminary safety analysis. (author)

Automating sensitivity analysis of computer models using computer calculus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oblow, E.M.; Pin, F.G.

1985-01-01

An automated procedure for performing sensitivity analyses has been developed. The procedure uses a new FORTRAN compiler with computer calculus capabilities to generate the derivatives needed to set up sensitivity equations. The new compiler is called GRESS - Gradient Enhanced Software System. Application of the automated procedure with ''direct'' and ''adjoint'' sensitivity theory for the analysis of non-linear, iterative systems of equations is discussed. Calculational efficiency consideration and techniques for adjoint sensitivity analysis are emphasized. The new approach is found to preserve the traditional advantages of adjoint theory while removing the tedious human effort previously needed to apply this theoretical methodology. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of the automated procedure in numerical analysis and large-scale modelling sensitivity studies. 24 refs., 2 figs

Sensitivity analysis and related analysis : A survey of statistical techniques

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.

1995-01-01

This paper reviews the state of the art in five related types of analysis, namely (i) sensitivity or what-if analysis, (ii) uncertainty or risk analysis, (iii) screening, (iv) validation, and (v) optimization. The main question is: when should which type of analysis be applied; which statistical

Ares-I-X Vehicle Preliminary Range Safety Malfunction Turn Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Beaty, James R.; Starr, Brett R.; Gowan, John W., Jr.

2008-01-01

Ares-I-X is the designation given to the flight test version of the Ares-I rocket (also known as the Crew Launch Vehicle - CLV) being developed by NASA. As part of the preliminary flight plan approval process for the test vehicle, a range safety malfunction turn analysis was performed to support the launch area risk assessment and vehicle destruct criteria development processes. Several vehicle failure scenarios were identified which could cause the vehicle trajectory to deviate from its normal flight path, and the effects of these failures were evaluated with an Ares-I-X 6 degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) digital simulation, using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories Version 2 (POST2) simulation framework. The Ares-I-X simulation analysis provides output files containing vehicle state information, which are used by other risk assessment and vehicle debris trajectory simulation tools to determine the risk to personnel and facilities in the vicinity of the launch area at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and to develop the vehicle destruct criteria used by the flight test range safety officer. The simulation analysis approach used for this study is described, including descriptions of the failure modes which were considered and the underlying assumptions and ground rules of the study, and preliminary results are presented, determined by analysis of the trajectory deviation of the failure cases, compared with the expected vehicle trajectory.

Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A; Pantazis, Yannis

2015-01-01

Existing sensitivity analysis approaches are not able to handle efficiently stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters and species, which are typical in the modeling and simulation of complex biochemical phenomena. In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner. In the second step of the proposed strategy, a finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially) sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in "sloppy" systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of parameters over the

Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Georgios Arampatzis

Full Text Available Existing sensitivity analysis approaches are not able to handle efficiently stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters and species, which are typical in the modeling and simulation of complex biochemical phenomena. In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner. In the second step of the proposed strategy, a finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in "sloppy" systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of

Sensitivity Analysis of Criticality for Different Nuclear Fuel Shapes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Hyun Sik; Jang, Misuk; Kim, Seoung Rae [NESS, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

Rod-type nuclear fuel was mainly developed in the past, but recent study has been extended to plate-type nuclear fuel. Therefore, this paper reviews the sensitivity of criticality according to different shapes of nuclear fuel types. Criticality analysis was performed using MCNP5. MCNP5 is well-known Monte Carlo codes for criticality analysis and a general-purpose Monte Carlo N-Particle code that can be used for neutron, photon, electron or coupled neutron / photon / electron transport, including the capability to calculate eigenvalues for critical systems. We performed the sensitivity analysis of criticality for different fuel shapes. In sensitivity analysis for simple fuel shapes, the criticality is proportional to the surface area. But for fuel Assembly types, it is not proportional to the surface area. In sensitivity analysis for intervals between plates, the criticality is greater as the interval increases, but if the interval is greater than 8mm, it showed an opposite trend that the criticality decrease by a larger interval. As a result, it has failed to obtain the logical content to be described in common for all cases. The sensitivity analysis of Criticality would be always required whenever subject to be analyzed is changed.

Sensitivity Analysis of Criticality for Different Nuclear Fuel Shapes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Hyun Sik; Jang, Misuk; Kim, Seoung Rae

2016-01-01

Rod-type nuclear fuel was mainly developed in the past, but recent study has been extended to plate-type nuclear fuel. Therefore, this paper reviews the sensitivity of criticality according to different shapes of nuclear fuel types. Criticality analysis was performed using MCNP5. MCNP5 is well-known Monte Carlo codes for criticality analysis and a general-purpose Monte Carlo N-Particle code that can be used for neutron, photon, electron or coupled neutron / photon / electron transport, including the capability to calculate eigenvalues for critical systems. We performed the sensitivity analysis of criticality for different fuel shapes. In sensitivity analysis for simple fuel shapes, the criticality is proportional to the surface area. But for fuel Assembly types, it is not proportional to the surface area. In sensitivity analysis for intervals between plates, the criticality is greater as the interval increases, but if the interval is greater than 8mm, it showed an opposite trend that the criticality decrease by a larger interval. As a result, it has failed to obtain the logical content to be described in common for all cases. The sensitivity analysis of Criticality would be always required whenever subject to be analyzed is changed

The role of sensitivity analysis in probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirschberg, S.; Knochenhauer, M.

1987-01-01

The paper describes several items suitable for close examination by means of application of sensitivity analysis, when performing a level 1 PSA. Sensitivity analyses are performed with respect to; (1) boundary conditions, (2) operator actions, and (3) treatment of common cause failures (CCFs). The items of main interest are identified continuously in the course of performing a PSA, as well as by scrutinising the final results. The practical aspects of sensitivity analysis are illustrated by several applications from a recent PSA study (ASEA-ATOM BWR 75). It is concluded that sensitivity analysis leads to insights important for analysts, reviewers and decision makers. (orig./HP)

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation

Science.gov (United States)

Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten

2015-04-01

Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.

Sensitivity analysis of Takagi-Sugeno-Kang rainfall-runoff fuzzy models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. P. Jacquin

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the sensitivity analysis of the model parameters of the Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy rainfall-runoff models previously developed by the authors. These models are classified in two types of fuzzy models, where the first type is intended to account for the effect of changes in catchment wetness and the second type incorporates seasonality as a source of non-linearity. The sensitivity analysis is performed using two global sensitivity analysis methods, namely Regional Sensitivity Analysis and Sobol's variance decomposition. The data of six catchments from different geographical locations and sizes are used in the sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity of the model parameters is analysed in terms of several measures of goodness of fit, assessing the model performance from different points of view. These measures include the Nash-Sutcliffe criteria, volumetric errors and peak errors. The results show that the sensitivity of the model parameters depends on both the catchment type and the measure used to assess the model performance.

Sensitivity Analysis in Two-Stage DEA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Athena Forghani

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis (DEA is a method for measuring the efficiency of peer decision making units (DMUs which uses a set of inputs to produce a set of outputs. In some cases, DMUs have a two-stage structure, in which the first stage utilizes inputs to produce outputs used as the inputs of the second stage to produce final outputs. One important issue in two-stage DEA is the sensitivity of the results of an analysis to perturbations in the data. The current paper looks into combined model for two-stage DEA and applies the sensitivity analysis to DMUs on the entire frontier. In fact, necessary and sufficient conditions for preserving a DMU's efficiency classiffication are developed when various data changes are applied to all DMUs.

Sensitivity Analysis in Two-Stage DEA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Athena Forghani

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis (DEA is a method for measuring the efficiency of peer decision making units (DMUs which uses a set of inputs to produce a set of outputs. In some cases, DMUs have a two-stage structure, in which the first stage utilizes inputs to produce outputs used as the inputs of the second stage to produce final outputs. One important issue in two-stage DEA is the sensitivity of the results of an analysis to perturbations in the data. The current paper looks into combined model for two-stage DEA and applies the sensitivity analysis to DMUs on the entire frontier. In fact, necessary and sufficient conditions for preserving a DMU's efficiency classiffication are developed when various data changes are applied to all DMUs.

SUMS preliminary design and data analysis development. [shuttle upper atmosphere mass spectrometer experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Hinson, E. W.

1981-01-01

The preliminary analysis and data analysis system development for the shuttle upper atmosphere mass spectrometer (SUMS) experiment are discussed. The SUMS experiment is designed to provide free stream atmospheric density, pressure, temperature, and mean molecular weight for the high altitude, high Mach number region.

Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.

2009-01-01

This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial

Sensitivity analysis of the RESRAD, a dose assessment code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, C.; Cheng, J.J.; Zielen, A.J.

1991-01-01

The RESRAD code is a pathway analysis code that is designed to calculate radiation doses and derive soil cleanup criteria for the US Department of Energy's environmental restoration and waste management program. the RESRAD code uses various pathway and consumption-rate parameters such as soil properties and food ingestion rates in performing such calculations and derivations. As with any predictive model, the accuracy of the predictions depends on the accuracy of the input parameters. This paper summarizes the results of a sensitivity analysis of RESRAD input parameters. Three methods were used to perform the sensitivity analysis: (1) Gradient Enhanced Software System (GRESS) sensitivity analysis software package developed at oak Ridge National Laboratory; (2) direct perturbation of input parameters; and (3) built-in graphic package that shows parameter sensitivities while the RESRAD code is operational

Sensitivity analysis in a structural reliability context

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lemaitre, Paul

2014-01-01

This thesis' subject is sensitivity analysis in a structural reliability context. The general framework is the study of a deterministic numerical model that allows to reproduce a complex physical phenomenon. The aim of a reliability study is to estimate the failure probability of the system from the numerical model and the uncertainties of the inputs. In this context, the quantification of the impact of the uncertainty of each input parameter on the output might be of interest. This step is called sensitivity analysis. Many scientific works deal with this topic but not in the reliability scope. This thesis' aim is to test existing sensitivity analysis methods, and to propose more efficient original methods. A bibliographical step on sensitivity analysis on one hand and on the estimation of small failure probabilities on the other hand is first proposed. This step raises the need to develop appropriate techniques. Two variables ranking methods are then explored. The first one proposes to make use of binary classifiers (random forests). The second one measures the departure, at each step of a subset method, between each input original density and the density given the subset reached. A more general and original methodology reflecting the impact of the input density modification on the failure probability is then explored. The proposed methods are then applied on the CWNR case, which motivates this thesis. (author)

Current Mooring Design in Partner WECs and Candidates for Preliminary Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Jonas Bjerg; Ferri, Francesco; Kofoed, Jens Peter

This report is the combined report of Commercial Milestone "CM1: Design and Cost of Current Mooring Solutions of Partner WECs" and Milestone "M3: Mooring Solutions for Preliminary Analysis" of the EUDP project "Mooring Solutions for Large Wave Energy Converters". The report covers a description o...

Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferson, Scott; Troy Tucker, W.

2006-01-01

Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values

Development of a noise annoyance sensitivity scale

Science.gov (United States)

Bregman, H. L.; Pearson, R. G.

1972-01-01

Examining the problem of noise pollution from the psychological rather than the engineering view, a test of human sensitivity to noise was developed against the criterion of noise annoyance. Test development evolved from a previous study in which biographical, attitudinal, and personality data was collected on a sample of 166 subjects drawn from the adult community of Raleigh. Analysis revealed that only a small subset of the data collected was predictive of noise annoyance. Item analysis yielded 74 predictive items that composed the preliminary noise sensitivity test. This was administered to a sample of 80 adults who later rate the annoyance value of six sounds (equated in terms of peak sound pressure level) presented in a simulated home, living-room environment. A predictive model involving 20 test items was developed using multiple regression techniques, and an item weighting scheme was evaluated.

Sensitivity analysis of ranked data: from order statistics to quantiles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heidergott, B.F.; Volk-Makarewicz, W.

2015-01-01

In this paper we provide the mathematical theory for sensitivity analysis of order statistics of continuous random variables, where the sensitivity is with respect to a distributional parameter. Sensitivity analysis of order statistics over a finite number of observations is discussed before

Sensitivity analysis in remote sensing

CERN Document Server

Ustinov, Eugene A

2015-01-01

This book contains a detailed presentation of general principles of sensitivity analysis as well as their applications to sample cases of remote sensing experiments. An emphasis is made on applications of adjoint problems, because they are more efficient in many practical cases, although their formulation may seem counterintuitive to a beginner. Special attention is paid to forward problems based on higher-order partial differential equations, where a novel matrix operator approach to formulation of corresponding adjoint problems is presented. Sensitivity analysis (SA) serves for quantitative models of physical objects the same purpose, as differential calculus does for functions. SA provides derivatives of model output parameters (observables) with respect to input parameters. In remote sensing SA provides computer-efficient means to compute the jacobians, matrices of partial derivatives of observables with respect to the geophysical parameters of interest. The jacobians are used to solve corresponding inver...

Preliminary analysis for model development of groundwater evolution in Horonobe area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshida, Yasushi; Yui, Mikazu

2003-03-01

The preliminary analysis for model development of groundwater evolution in Horonobe area was performed with data at D-1, HDB-1 and HDB-2 bore hole where hydrogen / oxygen isotope concentration, mineral property in sedimentary rock and physico-chemical parameters (pH, Eh and ionic concentrations) were measured. As a result of analysis for hydrogen and oxygen isotope concentration, saline water in marine sediment was diluted by the mixing with shallow groundwater and diffusion. And as a result of analysis for a concentration of bicarbonate from the difference of pH values measured between in-situ and under air, the estimated in-situ concentration of bicarbonate differs from that measured under air. And minerals which were assumed to be equilibrium with groundwater were selected by thermodynamic calculation. This report presents the results of preliminary analysis for groundwater evolution by using data derived from D-1, HDB-1 and HDB-2 boring research. In order to establish the model which interprets the groundwater evolution as a next step, data which satisfy the representative in-situ property of groundwater chemistry in Horonobe area are needed. Reliable measurements for physico-chemical parameter and property of minerals in sedimentary rock in dominant layer and at the variety of depth are also needed. (author)

A Preliminary Study on Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis with Statistic Method: Uncertainty Analysis with Cross Section Sampling from Lognormal Distribution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Song, Myung Sub; Kim, Song Hyun; Kim, Jong Kyung [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Noh, Jae Man [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2013-10-15

The uncertainty evaluation with statistical method is performed by repetition of transport calculation with sampling the directly perturbed nuclear data. Hence, the reliable uncertainty result can be obtained by analyzing the results of the numerous transport calculations. One of the problems in the uncertainty analysis with the statistical approach is known as that the cross section sampling from the normal (Gaussian) distribution with relatively large standard deviation leads to the sampling error of the cross sections such as the sampling of the negative cross section. Some collection methods are noted; however, the methods can distort the distribution of the sampled cross sections. In this study, a sampling method of the nuclear data is proposed by using lognormal distribution. After that, the criticality calculations with sampled nuclear data are performed and the results are compared with that from the normal distribution which is conventionally used in the previous studies. In this study, the statistical sampling method of the cross section with the lognormal distribution was proposed to increase the sampling accuracy without negative sampling error. Also, a stochastic cross section sampling and writing program was developed. For the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the cross section sampling was pursued with the normal and lognormal distribution. The uncertainties, which are caused by covariance of (n,.) cross sections, were evaluated by solving GODIVA problem. The results show that the sampling method with lognormal distribution can efficiently solve the negative sampling problem referred in the previous studies. It is expected that this study will contribute to increase the accuracy of the sampling-based uncertainty analysis.

A Preliminary Study on Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis with Statistic Method: Uncertainty Analysis with Cross Section Sampling from Lognormal Distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, Myung Sub; Kim, Song Hyun; Kim, Jong Kyung; Noh, Jae Man

2013-01-01

The uncertainty evaluation with statistical method is performed by repetition of transport calculation with sampling the directly perturbed nuclear data. Hence, the reliable uncertainty result can be obtained by analyzing the results of the numerous transport calculations. One of the problems in the uncertainty analysis with the statistical approach is known as that the cross section sampling from the normal (Gaussian) distribution with relatively large standard deviation leads to the sampling error of the cross sections such as the sampling of the negative cross section. Some collection methods are noted; however, the methods can distort the distribution of the sampled cross sections. In this study, a sampling method of the nuclear data is proposed by using lognormal distribution. After that, the criticality calculations with sampled nuclear data are performed and the results are compared with that from the normal distribution which is conventionally used in the previous studies. In this study, the statistical sampling method of the cross section with the lognormal distribution was proposed to increase the sampling accuracy without negative sampling error. Also, a stochastic cross section sampling and writing program was developed. For the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the cross section sampling was pursued with the normal and lognormal distribution. The uncertainties, which are caused by covariance of (n,.) cross sections, were evaluated by solving GODIVA problem. The results show that the sampling method with lognormal distribution can efficiently solve the negative sampling problem referred in the previous studies. It is expected that this study will contribute to increase the accuracy of the sampling-based uncertainty analysis

Sensitivity Analysis for Urban Drainage Modeling Using Mutual Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chuanqi Li

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The intention of this paper is to evaluate the sensitivity of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM output to its input parameters. A global parameter sensitivity analysis is conducted in order to determine which parameters mostly affect the model simulation results. Two different methods of sensitivity analysis are applied in this study. The first one is the partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC which measures nonlinear but monotonic relationships between model inputs and outputs. The second one is based on the mutual information which provides a general measure of the strength of the non-monotonic association between two variables. Both methods are based on the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS of the parameter space, and thus the same datasets can be used to obtain both measures of sensitivity. The utility of the PRCC and the mutual information analysis methods are illustrated by analyzing a complex SWMM model. The sensitivity analysis revealed that only a few key input variables are contributing significantly to the model outputs; PRCCs and mutual information are calculated and used to determine and rank the importance of these key parameters. This study shows that the partial rank correlation coefficient and mutual information analysis can be considered effective methods for assessing the sensitivity of the SWMM model to the uncertainty in its input parameters.

A general first-order global sensitivity analysis method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Chonggang; Gertner, George Zdzislaw

2008-01-01

Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST) is one of the most popular global sensitivity analysis techniques. The main mechanism of FAST is to assign each parameter with a characteristic frequency through a search function. Then, for a specific parameter, the variance contribution can be singled out of the model output by the characteristic frequency. Although FAST has been widely applied, there are two limitations: (1) the aliasing effect among parameters by using integer characteristic frequencies and (2) the suitability for only models with independent parameters. In this paper, we synthesize the improvement to overcome the aliasing effect limitation [Tarantola S, Gatelli D, Mara TA. Random balance designs for the estimation of first order global sensitivity indices. Reliab Eng Syst Safety 2006; 91(6):717-27] and the improvement to overcome the independence limitation [Xu C, Gertner G. Extending a global sensitivity analysis technique to models with correlated parameters. Comput Stat Data Anal 2007, accepted for publication]. In this way, FAST can be a general first-order global sensitivity analysis method for linear/nonlinear models with as many correlated/uncorrelated parameters as the user specifies. We apply the general FAST to four test cases with correlated parameters. The results show that the sensitivity indices derived by the general FAST are in good agreement with the sensitivity indices derived by the correlation ratio method, which is a non-parametric method for models with correlated parameters

Emulation of simulations of atmospheric dispersion at Fukushima for Sobol' sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Girard, Sylvain; Korsakissok, Irène; Mallet, Vivien

2015-04-01

Polyphemus/Polair3D, from which derives IRSN's operational model ldX, was used to simulate the atmospheric dispersion at the Japan scale of radionuclides after the Fukushima disaster. A previous study with the screening method of Morris had shown that - The sensitivities depend a lot on the considered output; - Only a few of the inputs are non-influential on all considered outputs; - Most influential inputs have either non-linear effects or are interacting. These preliminary results called for a more detailed sensitivity analysis, especially regarding the characterization of interactions. The method of Sobol' allows for a precise evaluation of interactions but requires large simulation samples. Gaussian process emulators for each considered outputs were built in order to relieve this computational burden. Globally aggregated outputs proved to be easy to emulate with high accuracy, and associated Sobol' indices are in broad agreement with previous results obtained with the Morris method. More localized outputs, such as temporal averages of gamma dose rates at measurement stations, resulted in lesser emulator performances: tests simulations could not satisfactorily be reproduced by some emulators. These outputs are of special interest because they can be compared to available observations, for instance for calibration purpose. A thorough inspection of prediction residuals hinted that the model response to wind perturbations often behaved in very distinct regimes relatively to some thresholds. Complementing the initial sample with wind perturbations set to the extreme values allowed for sensible improvement of some of the emulators while other remained too unreliable to be used in a sensitivity analysis. Adaptive sampling or regime-wise emulation could be tried to circumvent this issue. Sobol' indices for local outputs revealed interesting patterns, mostly dominated by the winds, with very high interactions. The emulators will be useful for subsequent studies. Indeed

National Data Center Preparedness Exercise 2015 (NPE 2015): MY-NDC Preliminary Analysis Result

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faisal Izwan Abdul Rashid; Muhammed Zulfakar Zolkaffly

2016-01-01

Malaysia has established the CTBT National Data Centre (MY-NDC) in December 2005. MY-NDC is tasked to perform Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban-Treaty (CTBT) data management as well as provide information for Treaty related events to Nuclear Malaysia as CTBT National Authority. In 2015, MY-NDC has participated in the National Data Centre Preparedness Exercise 2015 (NPE 2015). This paper aims at presenting MY-NDC preliminary analysis result of NPE 2015. In NPE 2015, MY-NDC has performed five different analyses, namely, radionuclide, atmospheric transport modelling (ATM), data fusion, seismic analysis and site forensics. The preliminary findings show the hypothetical scenario in NPE 2015 most probably is an uncontained event resulted high release of radionuclide to the air. (author)

Time-dependent reliability sensitivity analysis of motion mechanisms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei, Pengfei; Song, Jingwen; Lu, Zhenzhou; Yue, Zhufeng

2016-01-01

Reliability sensitivity analysis aims at identifying the source of structure/mechanism failure, and quantifying the effects of each random source or their distribution parameters on failure probability or reliability. In this paper, the time-dependent parametric reliability sensitivity (PRS) analysis as well as the global reliability sensitivity (GRS) analysis is introduced for the motion mechanisms. The PRS indices are defined as the partial derivatives of the time-dependent reliability w.r.t. the distribution parameters of each random input variable, and they quantify the effect of the small change of each distribution parameter on the time-dependent reliability. The GRS indices are defined for quantifying the individual, interaction and total contributions of the uncertainty in each random input variable to the time-dependent reliability. The envelope function method combined with the first order approximation of the motion error function is introduced for efficiently estimating the time-dependent PRS and GRS indices. Both the time-dependent PRS and GRS analysis techniques can be especially useful for reliability-based design. This significance of the proposed methods as well as the effectiveness of the envelope function method for estimating the time-dependent PRS and GRS indices are demonstrated with a four-bar mechanism and a car rack-and-pinion steering linkage. - Highlights: • Time-dependent parametric reliability sensitivity analysis is presented. • Time-dependent global reliability sensitivity analysis is presented for mechanisms. • The proposed method is especially useful for enhancing the kinematic reliability. • An envelope method is introduced for efficiently implementing the proposed methods. • The proposed method is demonstrated by two real planar mechanisms.

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis for Streamflow Prediction Using Different Objective Functions and Optimization Algorithms: San Joaquin California

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, M.; Negahban-Azar, M.

2017-12-01

The hydrologic models usually need to be calibrated against observed streamflow at the outlet of a particular drainage area through a careful model calibration. However, a large number of parameters are required to fit in the model due to their unavailability of the field measurement. Therefore, it is difficult to calibrate the model for a large number of potential uncertain model parameters. This even becomes more challenging if the model is for a large watershed with multiple land uses and various geophysical characteristics. Sensitivity analysis (SA) can be used as a tool to identify most sensitive model parameters which affect the calibrated model performance. There are many different calibration and uncertainty analysis algorithms which can be performed with different objective functions. By incorporating sensitive parameters in streamflow simulation, effects of the suitable algorithm in improving model performance can be demonstrated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling. In this study, the SWAT was applied in the San Joaquin Watershed in California covering 19704 km2 to calibrate the daily streamflow. Recently, sever water stress escalating due to intensified climate variability, prolonged drought and depleting groundwater for agricultural irrigation in this watershed. Therefore it is important to perform a proper uncertainty analysis given the uncertainties inherent in hydrologic modeling to predict the spatial and temporal variation of the hydrologic process to evaluate the impacts of different hydrologic variables. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity and uncertainty of the calibrated parameters for predicting streamflow. To evaluate the sensitivity of the calibrated parameters three different optimization algorithms (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting- SUFI-2, Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation- GLUE and Parameter Solution- ParaSol) were used with four different objective functions (coefficient of determination

Enhanced Accident Tolerant Fuels for LWRS - A Preliminary Systems Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gilles Youinou; R. Sonat Sen

2013-09-01

The severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plants illustrates the need for continuous improvements through developing and implementing technologies that contribute to safe, reliable and cost-effective operation of the nuclear fleet. Development of enhanced accident tolerant fuel contributes to this effort. These fuels, in comparison with the standard zircaloy – UO2 system currently used by the LWR industry, should be designed such that they tolerate loss of active cooling in the core for a longer time period (depending on the LWR system and accident scenario) while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normal operations, operational transients, and design-basis events. This report presents a preliminary systems analysis related to most of these concepts. The potential impacts of these innovative LWR fuels on the front-end of the fuel cycle, on the reactor operation and on the back-end of the fuel cycle are succinctly described without having the pretension of being exhaustive. Since the design of these various concepts is still a work in progress, this analysis can only be preliminary and could be updated as the designs converge on their respective final version.

NRC staff preliminary analysis of public comments on advance notice of proposed rulemaking on emergency planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peabody, C.A.; Hickey, J.W.N.

1980-01-01

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) published an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on emergency planning on July 17, 1979 (44 FR 41483). In October and November 1979, the NRC staff submitted several papers to the Commission related to the emergency planning rulemaking. One of these papers was a preliminary analysis of public comments received on the advance notice (SECY-79-591B, November 13, 1979). This document consists of the preliminary analysis as it was submitted to the Commission, with minor editorial changes

Technetium removal: preliminary flowsheet options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eager, K.M.

1995-01-01

This document presents the results of a preliminary investigation into options for preliminary flowsheets for 99Tc removal from Hanford Site tank waste. A model is created to show the path of 99Tc through pretreatment to disposal. The Tank Waste Remediation (TWRS) flowsheet (Orme 1995) is used as a baseline. Ranges of important inputs to the model are developed, such as 99Tc inventory in the tanks and important splits through the TWRS flowsheet. Several technetium removal options are discussed along with sensitivities of the removal schemes to important model parameters

Sensitivity analysis methods and a biosphere test case implemented in EIKOS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ekstroem, P.A.; Broed, R. [Facilia AB, Stockholm, (Sweden)

2006-05-15

Computer-based models can be used to approximate real life processes. These models are usually based on mathematical equations, which are dependent on several variables. The predictive capability of models is therefore limited by the uncertainty in the value of these. Sensitivity analysis is used to apportion the relative importance each uncertain input parameter has on the output variation. Sensitivity analysis is therefore an essential tool in simulation modelling and for performing risk assessments. Simple sensitivity analysis techniques based on fitting the output to a linear equation are often used, for example correlation or linear regression coefficients. These methods work well for linear models, but for non-linear models their sensitivity estimations are not accurate. Usually models of complex natural systems are non-linear. Within the scope of this work, various sensitivity analysis methods, which can cope with linear, non-linear, as well as non-monotone problems, have been implemented, in a software package, EIKOS, written in Matlab language. The following sensitivity analysis methods are supported by EIKOS: Pearson product moment correlation coefficient (CC), Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient (RCC), Partial (Rank) Correlation Coefficients (PCC), Standardized (Rank) Regression Coefficients (SRC), Sobol' method, Jansen's alternative, Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST) as well as the classical FAST method and the Smirnov and the Cramer-von Mises tests. A graphical user interface has also been developed, from which the user easily can load or call the model and perform a sensitivity analysis as well as uncertainty analysis. The implemented sensitivity analysis methods has been benchmarked with well-known test functions and compared with other sensitivity analysis software, with successful results. An illustration of the applicability of EIKOS is added to the report. The test case used is a landscape model consisting of several

Sensitivity analysis methods and a biosphere test case implemented in EIKOS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ekstroem, P.A.; Broed, R.

2006-05-01

Computer-based models can be used to approximate real life processes. These models are usually based on mathematical equations, which are dependent on several variables. The predictive capability of models is therefore limited by the uncertainty in the value of these. Sensitivity analysis is used to apportion the relative importance each uncertain input parameter has on the output variation. Sensitivity analysis is therefore an essential tool in simulation modelling and for performing risk assessments. Simple sensitivity analysis techniques based on fitting the output to a linear equation are often used, for example correlation or linear regression coefficients. These methods work well for linear models, but for non-linear models their sensitivity estimations are not accurate. Usually models of complex natural systems are non-linear. Within the scope of this work, various sensitivity analysis methods, which can cope with linear, non-linear, as well as non-monotone problems, have been implemented, in a software package, EIKOS, written in Matlab language. The following sensitivity analysis methods are supported by EIKOS: Pearson product moment correlation coefficient (CC), Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient (RCC), Partial (Rank) Correlation Coefficients (PCC), Standardized (Rank) Regression Coefficients (SRC), Sobol' method, Jansen's alternative, Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST) as well as the classical FAST method and the Smirnov and the Cramer-von Mises tests. A graphical user interface has also been developed, from which the user easily can load or call the model and perform a sensitivity analysis as well as uncertainty analysis. The implemented sensitivity analysis methods has been benchmarked with well-known test functions and compared with other sensitivity analysis software, with successful results. An illustration of the applicability of EIKOS is added to the report. The test case used is a landscape model consisting of several linked

Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Sallaberry, C.J.; Storlie, C.B.

2006-01-01

Sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are reviewed. The following topics are considered: (i) definition of probability distributions to characterize epistemic uncertainty in analysis inputs (ii) generation of samples from uncertain analysis inputs (iii) propagation of sampled inputs through an analysis (iv) presentation of uncertainty analysis results, and (v) determination of sensitivity analysis results. Special attention is given to the determination of sensitivity analysis results, with brief descriptions and illustrations given for the following procedures/techniques: examination of scatterplots, correlation analysis, regression analysis, partial correlation analysis, rank transformations, statistical tests for patterns based on gridding, entropy tests for patterns based on gridding, nonparametric regression analysis, squared rank differences/rank correlation coefficient test, two-dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, tests for patterns based on distance measures, top down coefficient of concordance, and variance decomposition

Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, Jay Dean; Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric J. PhD. (.; .); Storlie, Curt B. (Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO)

2006-06-01

Sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are reviewed. The following topics are considered: (1) Definition of probability distributions to characterize epistemic uncertainty in analysis inputs, (2) Generation of samples from uncertain analysis inputs, (3) Propagation of sampled inputs through an analysis, (4) Presentation of uncertainty analysis results, and (5) Determination of sensitivity analysis results. Special attention is given to the determination of sensitivity analysis results, with brief descriptions and illustrations given for the following procedures/techniques: examination of scatterplots, correlation analysis, regression analysis, partial correlation analysis, rank transformations, statistical tests for patterns based on gridding, entropy tests for patterns based on gridding, nonparametric regression analysis, squared rank differences/rank correlation coefficient test, two dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, tests for patterns based on distance measures, top down coefficient of concordance, and variance decomposition.

Systemization of burnup sensitivity analysis code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tatsumi, Masahiro; Hyoudou, Hideaki

2004-02-01

To practical use of fact reactors, it is a very important subject to improve prediction accuracy for neutronic properties in LMFBR cores from the viewpoints of improvements on plant efficiency with rationally high performance cores and that on reliability and safety margins. A distinct improvement on accuracy in nuclear core design has been accomplished by development of adjusted nuclear library using the cross-section adjustment method, in which the results of critical experiments of JUPITER and so on are reflected. In the design of large LMFBR cores, however, it is important to accurately estimate not only neutronic characteristics, for example, reaction rate distribution and control rod worth but also burnup characteristics, for example, burnup reactivity loss, breeding ratio and so on. For this purpose, it is desired to improve prediction accuracy of burnup characteristics using the data widely obtained in actual core such as the experimental fast reactor core 'JOYO'. The analysis of burnup characteristics is needed to effectively use burnup characteristics data in the actual cores based on the cross-section adjustment method. So far, development of a analysis code for burnup sensitivity, SAGEP-BURN, has been done and confirmed its effectiveness. However, there is a problem that analysis sequence become inefficient because of a big burden to user due to complexity of the theory of burnup sensitivity and limitation of the system. It is also desired to rearrange the system for future revision since it is becoming difficult to implement new functionalities in the existing large system. It is not sufficient to unify each computational component for some reasons; computational sequence may be changed for each item being analyzed or for purpose such as interpretation of physical meaning. Therefore it is needed to systemize the current code for burnup sensitivity analysis with component blocks of functionality that can be divided or constructed on occasion. For this

Global sensitivity analysis by polynomial dimensional decomposition

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rahman, Sharif, E-mail: rahman@engineering.uiowa.ed [College of Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States)

2011-07-15

This paper presents a polynomial dimensional decomposition (PDD) method for global sensitivity analysis of stochastic systems subject to independent random input following arbitrary probability distributions. The method involves Fourier-polynomial expansions of lower-variate component functions of a stochastic response by measure-consistent orthonormal polynomial bases, analytical formulae for calculating the global sensitivity indices in terms of the expansion coefficients, and dimension-reduction integration for estimating the expansion coefficients. Due to identical dimensional structures of PDD and analysis-of-variance decomposition, the proposed method facilitates simple and direct calculation of the global sensitivity indices. Numerical results of the global sensitivity indices computed for smooth systems reveal significantly higher convergence rates of the PDD approximation than those from existing methods, including polynomial chaos expansion, random balance design, state-dependent parameter, improved Sobol's method, and sampling-based methods. However, for non-smooth functions, the convergence properties of the PDD solution deteriorate to a great extent, warranting further improvements. The computational complexity of the PDD method is polynomial, as opposed to exponential, thereby alleviating the curse of dimensionality to some extent.

Discrete non-parametric kernel estimation for global sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senga Kiessé, Tristan; Ventura, Anne

2016-01-01

This work investigates the discrete kernel approach for evaluating the contribution of the variance of discrete input variables to the variance of model output, via analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition. Until recently only the continuous kernel approach has been applied as a metamodeling approach within sensitivity analysis framework, for both discrete and continuous input variables. Now the discrete kernel estimation is known to be suitable for smoothing discrete functions. We present a discrete non-parametric kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of a given model. An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its asymtotic convergence rate. Some simulations on a test function analysis and a real case study from agricultural have shown that the discrete kernel approach outperforms the continuous kernel one for evaluating the contribution of moderate or most influential discrete parameters to the model output. - Highlights: • We study a discrete kernel estimation for sensitivity analysis of a model. • A discrete kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of the model is presented. • Sensitivity indices are calculated for discrete input parameters. • An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its convergence rate. • An application is realized for improving the reliability of environmental models.

Beyond sensitivity analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Henrik; Sorknæs, Peter; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

2018-01-01

of electricity, which have been introduced in recent decades. These uncertainties pose a challenge to the design and assessment of future energy strategies and investments, especially in the economic assessment of renewable energy versus business-as-usual scenarios based on fossil fuels. From a methodological...... point of view, the typical way of handling this challenge has been to predict future prices as accurately as possible and then conduct a sensitivity analysis. This paper includes a historical analysis of such predictions, leading to the conclusion that they are almost always wrong. Not only...... are they wrong in their prediction of price levels, but also in the sense that they always seem to predict a smooth growth or decrease. This paper introduces a new method and reports the results of applying it on the case of energy scenarios for Denmark. The method implies the expectation of fluctuating fuel...

Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

Overview of methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iman, R.L.; Helton, J.C.

1985-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is playing an increasingly important role in the nuclear reactor regulatory process. The assessment of uncertainties associated with PRA results is widely recognized as an important part of the analysis process. One of the major criticisms of the Reactor Safety Study was that its representation of uncertainty was inadequate. The desire for the capability to treat uncertainties with the MELCOR risk code being developed at Sandia National Laboratories is indicative of the current interest in this topic. However, as yet, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in the context of PRA is a relatively immature field. In this paper, available methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in a PRA are reviewed. This review first treats methods for use with individual components of a PRA and then considers how these methods could be combined in the performance of a complete PRA. In the context of this paper, the goal of uncertainty analysis is to measure the imprecision in PRA outcomes of interest, and the goal of sensitivity analysis is to identify the major contributors to this imprecision. There are a number of areas that must be considered in uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis for a PRA: (1) information, (2) systems analysis, (3) thermal-hydraulic phenomena/fission product behavior, (4) health and economic consequences, and (5) display of results. Each of these areas and the synthesis of them into a complete PRA are discussed

Uncertainty and sensitivity results for pre-waste-emplacement groundwater travel time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaplan, P.G.

1992-01-01

In this paper uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for pre-waste-emplacement groundwater travel time conducted. Although preliminary, a numbed of interesting results were obtained. Uncertainty in the ground water travel time statistics, as measured by the coefficient of variation, increases and then decrease as the modeled system transitions from matrix-dominated to fracture-dominated flow. The uncertainty analysis also suggests that the median, as opposed to the mean, may be a better indicator of performance with respect to the regulatory criterion. The sensitivity analysis shows a strong correlation between an effective fracture property, fracture porosity, and failure to meet the regulatory pre-waste-emplacement groundwater travel time criterion of 1,000 years

Sensitivity Analysis for Design Optimization Integrated Software Tools, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of this proposed project is to provide a new set of sensitivity analysis theory and codes, the Sensitivity Analysis for Design Optimization Integrated...

Application of Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis to Integrated Force Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. F. Wei

2012-01-01

Full Text Available As a new formulation in structural analysis, Integrated Force Method has been successfully applied to many structures for civil, mechanical, and aerospace engineering due to the accurate estimate of forces in computation. Right now, it is being further extended to the probabilistic domain. For the assessment of uncertainty effect in system optimization and identification, the probabilistic sensitivity analysis of IFM was further investigated in this study. A set of stochastic sensitivity analysis formulation of Integrated Force Method was developed using the perturbation method. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate its application. Its efficiency and accuracy were also substantiated with direct Monte Carlo simulations and the reliability-based sensitivity method. The numerical algorithm was shown to be readily adaptable to the existing program since the models of stochastic finite element and stochastic design sensitivity are almost identical.

Active cooling for downhole instrumentation: Preliminary analysis and system selection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bennett, G.A.

1988-03-01

A feasibility study and a series of preliminary designs and analyses were done to identify candidate processes or cycles for use in active cooling systems for downhole electronic instruments. A matrix of energy types and their possible combinations was developed and the energy conversion process for each pari was identified. The feasibility study revealed conventional as well as unconventional processes and possible refrigerants and identified parameters needing further clarifications. A conceptual design or series od oesigns for each system was formulated and a preliminary analysis of each design was completed. The resulting coefficient of performance for each system was compared with the Carnot COP and all systems were ranked by decreasing COP. The system showing the best combination of COP, exchangeability to other operating conditions, failure mode, and system serviceability is chosen for use as a downhole refrigerator. 85 refs., 48 figs., 33 tabs.

A Global Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Multi-physics Applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tong, C H; Graziani, F R

2007-02-02

Experiments are conducted to draw inferences about an entire ensemble based on a selected number of observations. This applies to both physical experiments as well as computer experiments, the latter of which are performed by running the simulation models at different input configurations and analyzing the output responses. Computer experiments are instrumental in enabling model analyses such as uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. This report focuses on a global sensitivity analysis methodology that relies on a divide-and-conquer strategy and uses intelligent computer experiments. The objective is to assess qualitatively and/or quantitatively how the variabilities of simulation output responses can be accounted for by input variabilities. We address global sensitivity analysis in three aspects: methodology, sampling/analysis strategies, and an implementation framework. The methodology consists of three major steps: (1) construct credible input ranges; (2) perform a parameter screening study; and (3) perform a quantitative sensitivity analysis on a reduced set of parameters. Once identified, research effort should be directed to the most sensitive parameters to reduce their uncertainty bounds. This process is repeated with tightened uncertainty bounds for the sensitive parameters until the output uncertainties become acceptable. To accommodate the needs of multi-physics application, this methodology should be recursively applied to individual physics modules. The methodology is also distinguished by an efficient technique for computing parameter interactions. Details for each step will be given using simple examples. Numerical results on large scale multi-physics applications will be available in another report. Computational techniques targeted for this methodology have been implemented in a software package called PSUADE.

Thermal Hydraulic Analysis of K-DEMO Single Blanket Module for Preliminary Accident Analysis using MELCOR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moon, Sung Bo; Bang, In Cheol [UNIST, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

To develop the Korean fusion commercial reactor, preliminary design concept for K-DEMO (Korean fusion demonstration reactor) has been announced by NFRI (National Fusion Research Institute). This pre-conceptual study of K-DEMO has been introduced to identify technical details of a fusion power plant for the future commercialization of fusion reactor in Korea. Before this consideration, to build the K-DEMO, accident analysis is essential. Since the Fukushima accident, which is severe accident from unexpected disaster, safety analysis of nuclear power plant has become important. The safety analysis of both fission and fusion reactors is deemed crucial in demonstrating the low radiological effect of these reactors on the environment, during severe accidents. A risk analysis of K-DEMO should be performed, as a prerequisite for the construction of a fusion reactor. In this research, thermal-hydraulic analysis of single blanket module of K-DEMO is conducted for preliminary accident analysis for K-DEMO. Further study about effect of flow distributer is conducted. The normal K-DEMO operation condition is applied to the boundary condition and simulated to verify the material temperature limit using MELCOR. MELCOR is fully integrated, relatively fast-running code developed by Sandia National Laboratories. MELCOR had been used for Light Water Reactors and fusion reactor version of MELCOR was developed for ITER accident analysis. This study shows the result of thermal-hydraulic simulation of single blanket module with MELCOR which is severe accident code for nuclear fusion safety analysis. The difference of mass flow rate for each coolant channel with or without flow distributer is presented. With flow distributer, advantage of broadening temperature gradient in the K-DEMO blanket module and increase mass flow toward first wall is obtained. This can enhance the safety of K-DEMO blanket module. Most 13 .deg. C temperature difference in blanket module is obtained.

Sensitivity analysis techniques applied to a system of hyperbolic conservation laws

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weirs, V. Gregory; Kamm, James R.; Swiler, Laura P.; Tarantola, Stefano; Ratto, Marco; Adams, Brian M.; Rider, William J.; Eldred, Michael S.

2012-01-01

Sensitivity analysis is comprised of techniques to quantify the effects of the input variables on a set of outputs. In particular, sensitivity indices can be used to infer which input parameters most significantly affect the results of a computational model. With continually increasing computing power, sensitivity analysis has become an important technique by which to understand the behavior of large-scale computer simulations. Many sensitivity analysis methods rely on sampling from distributions of the inputs. Such sampling-based methods can be computationally expensive, requiring many evaluations of the simulation; in this case, the Sobol' method provides an easy and accurate way to compute variance-based measures, provided a sufficient number of model evaluations are available. As an alternative, meta-modeling approaches have been devised to approximate the response surface and estimate various measures of sensitivity. In this work, we consider a variety of sensitivity analysis methods, including different sampling strategies, different meta-models, and different ways of evaluating variance-based sensitivity indices. The problem we consider is the 1-D Riemann problem. By a careful choice of inputs, discontinuous solutions are obtained, leading to discontinuous response surfaces; such surfaces can be particularly problematic for meta-modeling approaches. The goal of this study is to compare the estimated sensitivity indices with exact values and to evaluate the convergence of these estimates with increasing samples sizes and under an increasing number of meta-model evaluations. - Highlights: ► Sensitivity analysis techniques for a model shock physics problem are compared. ► The model problem and the sensitivity analysis problem have exact solutions. ► Subtle details of the method for computing sensitivity indices can affect the results.

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Navarro Jimenez, M; Le Maître, O P; Knio, O M

2016-12-28

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

KAUST Repository

Navarro, María

2016-12-26

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol’s decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

Allergen Sensitization Pattern by Sex: A Cluster Analysis in Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Ohn, Jungyoon; Paik, Seung Hwan; Doh, Eun Jin; Park, Hyun-Sun; Yoon, Hyun-Sun; Cho, Soyun

2017-12-01

Allergens tend to sensitize simultaneously. Etiology of this phenomenon has been suggested to be allergen cross-reactivity or concurrent exposure. However, little is known about specific allergen sensitization patterns. To investigate the allergen sensitization characteristics according to gender. Multiple allergen simultaneous test (MAST) is widely used as a screening tool for detecting allergen sensitization in dermatologic clinics. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients with MAST results between 2008 and 2014 in our Department of Dermatology. A cluster analysis was performed to elucidate the allergen-specific immunoglobulin (Ig)E cluster pattern. The results of MAST (39 allergen-specific IgEs) from 4,360 cases were analyzed. By cluster analysis, 39items were grouped into 8 clusters. Each cluster had characteristic features. When compared with female, the male group tended to be sensitized more frequently to all tested allergens, except for fungus allergens cluster. The cluster and comparative analysis results demonstrate that the allergen sensitization is clustered, manifesting allergen similarity or co-exposure. Only the fungus cluster allergens tend to sensitize female group more frequently than male group.

Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Models with Missing Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Tang, Niansheng

2014-04-01

Methods for handling missing data depend strongly on the mechanism that generated the missing values, such as missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), as well as other distributional and modeling assumptions at various stages. It is well known that the resulting estimates and tests may be sensitive to these assumptions as well as to outlying observations. In this paper, we introduce various perturbations to modeling assumptions and individual observations, and then develop a formal sensitivity analysis to assess these perturbations in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with missing data. We develop a geometric framework, called the Bayesian perturbation manifold, to characterize the intrinsic structure of these perturbations. We propose several intrinsic influence measures to perform sensitivity analysis and quantify the effect of various perturbations to statistical models. We use the proposed sensitivity analysis procedure to systematically investigate the tenability of the non-ignorable missing at random (NMAR) assumption. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and a dataset is analyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures.

Beyond the GUM: variance-based sensitivity analysis in metrology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lira, I

2016-01-01

Variance-based sensitivity analysis is a well established tool for evaluating the contribution of the uncertainties in the inputs to the uncertainty in the output of a general mathematical model. While the literature on this subject is quite extensive, it has not found widespread use in metrological applications. In this article we present a succinct review of the fundamentals of sensitivity analysis, in a form that should be useful to most people familiarized with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM). Through two examples, it is shown that in linear measurement models, no new knowledge is gained by using sensitivity analysis that is not already available after the terms in the so-called ‘law of propagation of uncertainties’ have been computed. However, if the model behaves non-linearly in the neighbourhood of the best estimates of the input quantities—and if these quantities are assumed to be statistically independent—sensitivity analysis is definitely advantageous for gaining insight into how they can be ranked according to their importance in establishing the uncertainty of the measurand. (paper)

Rethinking Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Simulations with Topology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dan Maljovec; Bei Wang; Paul Rosen; Andrea Alfonsi; Giovanni Pastore; Cristian Rabiti; Valerio Pascucci

2016-01-01

In nuclear engineering, understanding the safety margins of the nuclear reactor via simulations is arguably of paramount importance in predicting and preventing nuclear accidents. It is therefore crucial to perform sensitivity analysis to understand how changes in the model inputs affect the outputs. Modern nuclear simulation tools rely on numerical representations of the sensitivity information -- inherently lacking in visual encodings -- offering limited effectiveness in communicating and exploring the generated data. In this paper, we design a framework for sensitivity analysis and visualization of multidimensional nuclear simulation data using partition-based, topology-inspired regression models and report on its efficacy. We rely on the established Morse-Smale regression technique, which allows us to partition the domain into monotonic regions where easily interpretable linear models can be used to assess the influence of inputs on the output variability. The underlying computation is augmented with an intuitive and interactive visual design to effectively communicate sensitivity information to the nuclear scientists. Our framework is being deployed into the multi-purpose probabilistic risk assessment and uncertainty quantification framework RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual Control Environment). We evaluate our framework using an simulation dataset studying nuclear fuel performance.

Systemization of burnup sensitivity analysis code. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tatsumi, Masahiro; Hyoudou, Hideaki

2005-02-01

Towards the practical use of fast reactors, it is a very important subject to improve prediction accuracy for neutronic properties in LMFBR cores from the viewpoint of improvements on plant efficiency with rationally high performance cores and that on reliability and safety margins. A distinct improvement on accuracy in nuclear core design has been accomplished by the development of adjusted nuclear library using the cross-section adjustment method, in which the results of criticality experiments of JUPITER and so on are reflected. In the design of large LMFBR cores, however, it is important to accurately estimate not only neutronic characteristics, for example, reaction rate distribution and control rod worth but also burnup characteristics, for example, burnup reactivity loss, breeding ratio and so on. For this purpose, it is desired to improve prediction accuracy of burnup characteristics using the data widely obtained in actual core such as the experimental fast reactor 'JOYO'. The analysis of burnup characteristics is needed to effectively use burnup characteristics data in the actual cores based on the cross-section adjustment method. So far, a burnup sensitivity analysis code, SAGEP-BURN, has been developed and confirmed its effectiveness. However, there is a problem that analysis sequence become inefficient because of a big burden to users due to complexity of the theory of burnup sensitivity and limitation of the system. It is also desired to rearrange the system for future revision since it is becoming difficult to implement new functions in the existing large system. It is not sufficient to unify each computational component for the following reasons; the computational sequence may be changed for each item being analyzed or for purpose such as interpretation of physical meaning. Therefore, it is needed to systemize the current code for burnup sensitivity analysis with component blocks of functionality that can be divided or constructed on occasion. For

Preliminary study of soil permeability properties using principal component analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Yulianti, M.; Sudriani, Y.; Rustini, H. A.

2018-02-01

Soil permeability measurement is undoubtedly important in carrying out soil-water research such as rainfall-runoff modelling, irrigation water distribution systems, etc. It is also known that acquiring reliable soil permeability data is rather laborious, time-consuming, and costly. Therefore, it is desirable to develop the prediction model. Several studies of empirical equations for predicting permeability have been undertaken by many researchers. These studies derived the models from areas which soil characteristics are different from Indonesian soil, which suggest a possibility that these permeability models are site-specific. The purpose of this study is to identify which soil parameters correspond strongly to soil permeability and propose a preliminary model for permeability prediction. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to 16 parameters analysed from 37 sites consist of 91 samples obtained from Batanghari Watershed. Findings indicated five variables that have strong correlation with soil permeability, and we recommend a preliminary permeability model, which is potential for further development.

Preliminary Mass Spectrometric Analysis of Uranium on Environmental Swipe Materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheong, Chang-Sik; Jeong, Youn-Joong; Ryu, Jong-Sik; Shin, Hyung-Seon; Cha, Hyun-Ju; Ahn, Gil-Hoon; Park, Il-Jin; Min, Gyung-Sik

2006-01-01

It is well-known that uranium and plutonium isotopic compositions of safeguards samples are very useful to investigate the history of nuclear activities. To strengthen the capabilities of environmental sampling analysis in the ROK through MOST/DOE collaboration, round robin test for uranium and plutonium was designed in 2003. As the first round robin test, a set of dried uranium-containing solutions (∼35ng and (∼300ng) was distributed to the participating laboratories in November of 2003, with results reported in April of 2004. The KBSI (Korea Basic Science Institute) and ORNL (Oak Ridge National Laboratory) are currently in the process of analyzing uranium on cotton swipes for the second round robin test. As a preliminary test for the second round, KBSI intends to analyze home-made swipe samples into which international uranium standards are added. Here we describe technical steps of sample preparation and mass spectrometry at KBSI, and report some results of the preliminary test

Dynamic Resonance Sensitivity Analysis in Wind Farms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ebrahimzadeh, Esmaeil; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Xiongfei

2017-01-01

(PFs) are calculated by critical eigenvalue sensitivity analysis versus the entries of the MIMO matrix. The PF analysis locates the most exciting bus of the resonances, where can be the best location to install the passive or active filters to reduce the harmonic resonance problems. Time...

Preliminary thermal sizing of intermediate heat exchanger for NHDD system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Chan Soo; Hong, Sung Deok; Kim, Yong Wan; Chang, Jongh Wa

2009-01-01

Nuclear Hydrogen Development and Demonstration (NHDD) system is a Very High Temperature gascooled Reactor (VHTR) coupled with hydrogen production systems. Intermediate heat exchanger transfers heat from the nuclear reactor to the hydrogen production system. This study presented the sensitivity analysis on a preliminary thermal sizing of the intermediate heat exchanger. Printed Circuit Heat Exchanger (PCHE) was selected for the thermal sizing because the printed circuit heat exchanger has the largest compactness among the heat exchanger types. The analysis was performed to estimate the effect of key parameters including the operating condition of the intermediate system, the geometrical factors of the PCHE, and the working fluid of the intermediate system.

The EVEREST project: sensitivity analysis of geological disposal systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marivoet, Jan; Wemaere, Isabelle; Escalier des Orres, Pierre; Baudoin, Patrick; Certes, Catherine; Levassor, Andre; Prij, Jan; Martens, Karl-Heinz; Roehlig, Klaus

1997-01-01

The main objective of the EVEREST project is the evaluation of the sensitivity of the radiological consequences associated with the geological disposal of radioactive waste to the different elements in the performance assessment. Three types of geological host formations are considered: clay, granite and salt. The sensitivity studies that have been carried out can be partitioned into three categories according to the type of uncertainty taken into account: uncertainty in the model parameters, uncertainty in the conceptual models and uncertainty in the considered scenarios. Deterministic as well as stochastic calculational approaches have been applied for the sensitivity analyses. For the analysis of the sensitivity to parameter values, the reference technique, which has been applied in many evaluations, is stochastic and consists of a Monte Carlo simulation followed by a linear regression. For the analysis of conceptual model uncertainty, deterministic and stochastic approaches have been used. For the analysis of uncertainty in the considered scenarios, mainly deterministic approaches have been applied

Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis: Example results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Storlie, Curtis B.; Helton, Jon C.

2008-01-01

The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described in the first part of this presentation: (i) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (ii) additive models, (iii) projection pursuit regression, and (iv) recursive partitioning regression. In this, the second and concluding part of the presentation, the indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present

Sensitivity analysis technique for application to deterministic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishigami, T.; Cazzoli, E.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Unwin, S.D.

1987-01-01

The characterization of sever accident source terms for light water reactors should include consideration of uncertainties. An important element of any uncertainty analysis is an evaluation of the sensitivity of the output probability distributions reflecting source term uncertainties to assumptions regarding the input probability distributions. Historically, response surface methods (RSMs) were developed to replace physical models using, for example, regression techniques, with simplified models for example, regression techniques, with simplified models for extensive calculations. The purpose of this paper is to present a new method for sensitivity analysis that does not utilize RSM, but instead relies directly on the results obtained from the original computer code calculations. The merits of this approach are demonstrated by application of the proposed method to the suppression pool aerosol removal code (SPARC), and the results are compared with those obtained by sensitivity analysis with (a) the code itself, (b) a regression model, and (c) Iman's method

Analysis preliminary phytochemical raw extract of leaves Nephrolepis pectinata

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natally Marreiros Gomes

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The Nephrolepis pectinata popularly known as paulista fern, ladder-heaven, cat tail, belongs to the family Davalliaceae. For the beauty of the arrangements of their leaves ferns are quite commercialized in Brazil, however, have not been described in the literature studies on their pharmacological potential. Thus, the objective of this research was to analyze the phytochemical properties of the crude extract of the leaves of Nephrolepis pectinata. To perform the phytochemical analysis were initially made the collection of the vegetable, preparation of voucher specimen, washing, drying and grinding. Then, extraction by percolation method and end the phytochemical analysis. Preliminary results phytochemicals the crude extract of the leaves of Nephrolepis pectinata tested positive for reducing sugars, phenols/tannins (catechins tannins and catechins.

Preliminary design and thermal analysis of device for finish cooling Jaffa biscuits in a.d. 'Jaffa'- Crvenka

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salemović Duško R.

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper preliminary design of device for finish cooling chocolate topping of biscuits in A.D. 'Jaffa'- Crvenka was done. The proposed preliminary design followed by the required technological process of finish cooling biscuits and required parameters of process which was supposed to get and which represented part of project task. Thermal analysis was made and obtained percentage error between surface contact of the air and chocolate topping, obtained from heat balance and geometrical over proposed preliminary design, wasn't more than 0.67%. This is a preliminary design completely justified because using required length of belt conveyor receive required temperature of chocolate topping at the end of the cooling process.

Preliminary analysis of a target factory for laser fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sherohman, J.W.; Hendricks, C.D.

1980-01-01

An analysis of a target factory leading to the determination of production expressions has provided for the basis of a parametric study. Parameters involving the input and output rate of a process system, processing yield factors, and multiple processing steps and production lines have been used to develop an understanding of their dependence on the rate of target injection for laser fusion. Preliminary results have indicated that a parametric study of this type will be important in the selection of processing methods to be used in the final production scheme of a target factory

Probability density adjoint for sensitivity analysis of the Mean of Chaos

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blonigan, Patrick J., E-mail: blonigan@mit.edu; Wang, Qiqi, E-mail: qiqi@mit.edu

2014-08-01

Sensitivity analysis, especially adjoint based sensitivity analysis, is a powerful tool for engineering design which allows for the efficient computation of sensitivities with respect to many parameters. However, these methods break down when used to compute sensitivities of long-time averaged quantities in chaotic dynamical systems. This paper presents a new method for sensitivity analysis of ergodic chaotic dynamical systems, the density adjoint method. The method involves solving the governing equations for the system's invariant measure and its adjoint on the system's attractor manifold rather than in phase-space. This new approach is derived for and demonstrated on one-dimensional chaotic maps and the three-dimensional Lorenz system. It is found that the density adjoint computes very finely detailed adjoint distributions and accurate sensitivities, but suffers from large computational costs.

SBML-SAT: a systems biology markup language (SBML) based sensitivity analysis tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Zi, Zhike; Zheng, Yanan; Rundell, Ann E; Klipp, Edda

2008-08-15

It has long been recognized that sensitivity analysis plays a key role in modeling and analyzing cellular and biochemical processes. Systems biology markup language (SBML) has become a well-known platform for coding and sharing mathematical models of such processes. However, current SBML compatible software tools are limited in their ability to perform global sensitivity analyses of these models. This work introduces a freely downloadable, software package, SBML-SAT, which implements algorithms for simulation, steady state analysis, robustness analysis and local and global sensitivity analysis for SBML models. This software tool extends current capabilities through its execution of global sensitivity analyses using multi-parametric sensitivity analysis, partial rank correlation coefficient, SOBOL's method, and weighted average of local sensitivity analyses in addition to its ability to handle systems with discontinuous events and intuitive graphical user interface. SBML-SAT provides the community of systems biologists a new tool for the analysis of their SBML models of biochemical and cellular processes.

Sensitivity analysis and power for instrumental variable studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xuran; Jiang, Yang; Zhang, Nancy R; Small, Dylan S

2018-03-31

In observational studies to estimate treatment effects, unmeasured confounding is often a concern. The instrumental variable (IV) method can control for unmeasured confounding when there is a valid IV. To be a valid IV, a variable needs to be independent of unmeasured confounders and only affect the outcome through affecting the treatment. When applying the IV method, there is often concern that a putative IV is invalid to some degree. We present an approach to sensitivity analysis for the IV method which examines the sensitivity of inferences to violations of IV validity. Specifically, we consider sensitivity when the magnitude of association between the putative IV and the unmeasured confounders and the direct effect of the IV on the outcome are limited in magnitude by a sensitivity parameter. Our approach is based on extending the Anderson-Rubin test and is valid regardless of the strength of the instrument. A power formula for this sensitivity analysis is presented. We illustrate its usage via examples about Mendelian randomization studies and its implications via a comparison of using rare versus common genetic variants as instruments. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

Preliminary Report: Analysis of the baseline study on the prevalence of Salmonella in laying hen flocks of Gallus gallus

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hald, Tine

This is a preliminary report on the analysis of the Community-wide baseline study to estimate the prevalence of Salmonella in laying hen flocks. It is being published pending the full analysis of the entire dataset from the baseline study. The report contains the elements necessary for the establ......This is a preliminary report on the analysis of the Community-wide baseline study to estimate the prevalence of Salmonella in laying hen flocks. It is being published pending the full analysis of the entire dataset from the baseline study. The report contains the elements necessary...

Preliminary Dynamic Feasibility and Analysis of a Spherical, Wind-Driven (Tumbleweed), Martian Rover

Science.gov (United States)

Flick, John J.; Toniolo, Matthew D.

2005-01-01

The process and findings are presented from a preliminary feasibility study examining the dynamics characteristics of a spherical wind-driven (or Tumbleweed) rover, which is intended for exploration of the Martian surface. The results of an initial feasibility study involving several worst-case mobility situations that a Tumbleweed rover might encounter on the surface of Mars are discussed. Additional topics include the evaluation of several commercially available analysis software packages that were examined as possible platforms for the development of a Monte Carlo Tumbleweed mission simulation tool. This evaluation lead to the development of the Mars Tumbleweed Monte Carlo Simulator (or Tumbleweed Simulator) using the Vortex physics software package from CM-Labs, Inc. Discussions regarding the development and evaluation of the Tumbleweed Simulator, as well as the results of a preliminary analysis using the tool are also presented. Finally, a brief conclusions section is presented.

Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

2017-02-01

Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

Sensitivity analysis of the reactor safety study. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parkinson, W.J.; Rasmussen, N.C.; Hinkle, W.D.

1979-01-01

The Reactor Safety Study (RSS) or Wash 1400 developed a methodology estimating the public risk from light water nuclear reactors. In order to give further insights into this study, a sensitivity analysis has been performed to determine the significant contributors to risk for both the PWR and BWR. The sensitivity to variation of the point values of the failure probabilities reported in the RSS was determined for the safety systems identified therein, as well as for many of the generic classes from which individual failures contributed to system failures. Increasing as well as decreasing point values were considered. An analysis of the sensitivity to increasing uncertainty in system failure probabilities was also performed. The sensitivity parameters chosen were release category probabilities, core melt probability, and the risk parameters of early fatalities, latent cancers and total property damage. The latter three are adequate for describing all public risks identified in the RSS. The results indicate reductions of public risk by less than a factor of two for factor reductions in system or generic failure probabilities as high as one hundred. There also appears to be more benefit in monitoring the most sensitive systems to verify adherence to RSS failure rates than to backfitting present reactors. The sensitivity analysis results do indicate, however, possible benefits in reducing human error rates

Sensitivity analysis for contagion effects in social networks

Science.gov (United States)

VanderWeele, Tyler J.

2014-01-01

Analyses of social network data have suggested that obesity, smoking, happiness and loneliness all travel through social networks. Individuals exert “contagion effects” on one another through social ties and association. These analyses have come under critique because of the possibility that homophily from unmeasured factors may explain these statistical associations and because similar findings can be obtained when the same methodology is applied to height, acne and head-aches, for which the conclusion of contagion effects seems somewhat less plausible. We use sensitivity analysis techniques to assess the extent to which supposed contagion effects for obesity, smoking, happiness and loneliness might be explained away by homophily or confounding and the extent to which the critique using analysis of data on height, acne and head-aches is relevant. Sensitivity analyses suggest that contagion effects for obesity and smoking cessation are reasonably robust to possible latent homophily or environmental confounding; those for happiness and loneliness are somewhat less so. Supposed effects for height, acne and head-aches are all easily explained away by latent homophily and confounding. The methodology that has been employed in past studies for contagion effects in social networks, when used in conjunction with sensitivity analysis, may prove useful in establishing social influence for various behaviors and states. The sensitivity analysis approach can be used to address the critique of latent homophily as a possible explanation of associations interpreted as contagion effects. PMID:25580037

Sensitivity analysis of an Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor control rod model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, M.; Green, P.L.; O’Driscoll, D.; Worden, K.; Sims, N.D.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A model was made of the AGR control rod mechanism. • The aim was to better understand the performance when shutting down the reactor. • The model showed good agreement with test data. • Sensitivity analysis was carried out. • The results demonstrated the robustness of the system. - Abstract: A model has been made of the primary shutdown system of an Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor nuclear power station. The aim of this paper is to explore the use of sensitivity analysis techniques on this model. The two motivations for performing sensitivity analysis are to quantify how much individual uncertain parameters are responsible for the model output uncertainty, and to make predictions about what could happen if one or several parameters were to change. Global sensitivity analysis techniques were used based on Gaussian process emulation; the software package GEM-SA was used to calculate the main effects, the main effect index and the total sensitivity index for each parameter and these were compared to local sensitivity analysis results. The results suggest that the system performance is resistant to adverse changes in several parameters at once.

A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

KAUST Repository

Boas, Sonja E. M.

2015-11-21

Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.

Science.gov (United States)

Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G

2015-11-21

Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

Preliminary crystallographic analysis of a possible transcription factor encoded by the mimivirus L544 gene

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciaccafava, Alexandre; Lartigue, Audrey; Mansuelle, Pascal; Jeudy, Sandra; Abergel, Chantal

2011-01-01

The mimivirus L544 gene product was expressed in E. coli and crystallized; preliminary phasing of a MAD data set was performed using the selenium signal present in a crystal of recombinant selenomethionine-substituted protein. Mimivirus is the prototype of a new family (the Mimiviridae) of nucleocytoplasmic large DNA viruses (NCLDVs), which already include the Poxviridae, Iridoviridae, Phycodnaviridae and Asfarviridae. Mimivirus specifically replicates in cells from the genus Acanthamoeba. Proteomic analysis of purified mimivirus particles revealed the presence of many subunits of the DNA-directed RNA polymerase II complex. A fully functional pre-transcriptional complex appears to be loaded in the virions, allowing mimivirus to initiate transcription within the host cytoplasm immediately upon infection independently of the host nuclear apparatus. To fully understand this process, a systematic study of mimivirus proteins that are predicted (by bioinformatics) or suspected (by proteomic analysis) to be involved in transcription was initiated by cloning and expressing them in Escherichia coli in order to determine their three-dimensional structures. Here, preliminary crystallographic analysis of the recombinant L544 protein is reported. The crystals belonged to the orthorhombic space group C222 1 with one monomer per asymmetric unit. A MAD data set was used for preliminary phasing using the selenium signal present in a selenomethionine-substituted protein crystal

Sensitivity analysis of a low-level waste environmental transport code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hiromoto, G.

1989-01-01

Results are presented from a sensivity analysis of a computer code designed to simulate the environmental transport of radionuclides buried at shallow land waste repositories. A sensitivity analysis methodology, based on the surface response replacement and statistic sensitivity estimators, was developed to address the relative importance of the input parameters on the model output. Response surface replacement for the model was constructed by stepwise regression, after sampling input vectors from range and distribution of the input variables, and running the code to generate the associated output data. Sensitivity estimators were compute using the partial rank correlation coefficients and the standardized rank regression coefficients. The results showed that the tecniques employed in this work provides a feasible means to perform a sensitivity analysis of a general not-linear environmental radionuclides transport models. (author) [pt

Probabilistic and sensitivity analysis of Botlek Bridge structures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Králik Juraj

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with the probabilistic and sensitivity analysis of the largest movable lift bridge of the world. The bridge system consists of six reinforced concrete pylons and two steel decks 4000 tons weight each connected through ropes with counterweights. The paper focuses the probabilistic and sensitivity analysis as the base of dynamic study in design process of the bridge. The results had a high importance for practical application and design of the bridge. The model and resistance uncertainties were taken into account in LHS simulation method.

Preliminary seismic design cost-benefit assessment of the tuff repository waste-handling facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Subramanian, C.V.; Abrahamson, N.; Hadjian, A.H.

1989-02-01

This report presents a preliminary assessment of the costs and benefits associated with changes in the seismic design basis of waste-handling facilities. The objectives of the study are to understand the capability of the current seismic design of the waste-handling facilities to mitigate seismic hazards, evaluate how different design levels and design measures might be used toward mitigating seismic hazards, assess the costs and benefits of alternative seismic design levels, and develop recommendations for possible modifications to the seismic design basis. This preliminary assessment is based primarily on expert judgment solicited in an interdisciplinary workshop environment. The estimated costs for individual attributes and the assumptions underlying these cost estimates (seismic hazard levels, fragilities, radioactive-release scenarios, etc.) are subject to large uncertainties, which are generally identified but not treated explicitly in this preliminary analysis. The major conclusions of the report do not appear to be very sensitive to these uncertainties. 41 refs., 51 figs., 35 tabs

Experimental Design for Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.

2001-01-01

This introductory tutorial gives a survey on the use of statistical designs for what if-or sensitivity analysis in simulation.This analysis uses regression analysis to approximate the input/output transformation that is implied by the simulation model; the resulting regression model is also known as

Analysis of clonogenic human brain tumour cells: preliminary results of tumour sensitivity testing with BCNU

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosenblum, M L; Dougherty, D A; Deen, D F; Hoshino, T; Wilson, C B [California Univ., San Francisco (USA). Dept. of Neurology

1980-04-01

Biopsies from 6 patients with glioblastoma multiforme were disaggregated and single cells were treated in vitro with various concentrations of 1,3-bis(2-chloroethyl)-1-nitroso urea (BCNU) and plated for cell survival. One patient's cells were sensitive to BCNU in vitro; after a single dose of BCNU her brain scan reverted to normal and she was clinically well. Five tumours demonstrated resistance in vitro. Three of these tumours progressed during the first course of chemotherapy with a nitrosourea and the patients died at 21/2, 4 and 81/2 months after operation. Two patients who showed dramatic responses to radiation therapy were considered unchanged after the first course of nitrosourea therapy (although one demonstrated tumour enlargement on brain scan). The correlation of in vitro testing of tumour cell sensitivity with actual patient response is encouraging enough to warrant further work to determine whether such tests should weigh in decisions on patient therapy.

Preliminary analysis of engineered barrieer performances in geological disposal of high level waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohe, Toshiaki; Maki, Yasuo; Tanaka, Hiroshi; Kawanishi, Motoi.

1988-01-01

This report represents preliminary results of safety analysis of a engineered barrier system in geological disposal of high level radioactive waste. Three well-known computer codes; ORIGEN 2, TRUMP, and SWIFT were used in the simulation. Main conceptual design of the repository was almost identical to that of SKB in Sweden and NAGRA in Switzerland; the engineered barrier conasists glass solidified waste, steel overpack, and compacted bentonite. Two different underground formations are considered; granite and neogene sedimentary rock, which are typically found in Japan. We first determined the repository configuration, particularly the space between disposal pitts. The ORIGEN 2 was used to estimate heat generation in the waste glass reprocessed at 4 years after removal from PWR. Then, temperature distribution was calculated by the TRUMP. The results of two or three dimensional calculation indicated that the pit interval should be kept more than 5 m in the case of granite formation at 500 m depth, according to the temperature criteria in the bentonite layer ( 90 Sr, 241 Am, 239 Pu, and 237 Np were chosen in one or two dimensional calculations. For both cases of steady release and instanteneous release, the maximum concentration in the pore water at the boundary between bentonite and surrounding rock had the following order; 237 Np> 239 Pu> 90 Sr> 241 Am. Sensitivity analysis showed that the order mainly due to the different adsorption characteristics of the nuclides in bentonite layer. (author)

Understanding dynamics using sensitivity analysis: caveat and solution

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Parametric sensitivity analysis (PSA) has become one of the most commonly used tools in computational systems biology, in which the sensitivity coefficients are used to study the parametric dependence of biological models. As many of these models describe dynamical behaviour of biological systems, the PSA has subsequently been used to elucidate important cellular processes that regulate this dynamics. However, in this paper, we show that the PSA coefficients are not suitable in inferring the mechanisms by which dynamical behaviour arises and in fact it can even lead to incorrect conclusions. Results A careful interpretation of parametric perturbations used in the PSA is presented here to explain the issue of using this analysis in inferring dynamics. In short, the PSA coefficients quantify the integrated change in the system behaviour due to persistent parametric perturbations, and thus the dynamical information of when a parameter perturbation matters is lost. To get around this issue, we present a new sensitivity analysis based on impulse perturbations on system parameters, which is named impulse parametric sensitivity analysis (iPSA). The inability of PSA and the efficacy of iPSA in revealing mechanistic information of a dynamical system are illustrated using two examples involving switch activation. Conclusions The interpretation of the PSA coefficients of dynamical systems should take into account the persistent nature of parametric perturbations involved in the derivation of this analysis. The application of PSA to identify the controlling mechanism of dynamical behaviour can be misleading. By using impulse perturbations, introduced at different times, the iPSA provides the necessary information to understand how dynamics is achieved, i.e. which parameters are essential and when they become important. PMID:21406095

Waste Feed Delivery System Phase 1 Preliminary RAM Analysis [SEC 1 and 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DYKES, A.A.

2000-10-11

This report presents the updated results of the preliminary reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM) analysis of selected waste feed delivery (WFD) operations to be performed by the Tank Farm Contractor (TFC) during Phase I activities in support of the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). For planning purposes, waste feed tanks are being divided into five classes in accordance with the type of waste in each tank and the activities required to retrieve, qualify, and transfer waste feed. This report reflects the baseline design and operating concept, as of the beginning of Fiscal Year 2000, for the delivery of feed from three of these classes, represented by source tanks 241-AN-102, 241-AZ-101 and 241-AN-105. The preliminary RAM analysis quantifies the potential schedule delay associated with operations and maintenance (OBM) field activities needed to accomplish these operations. The RAM analysis is preliminary because the system design, process definition, and activity planning are in a state of evolution. The results are being used to support the continuing development of an O&M Concept tailored to the unique requirements of the WFD Program, which is being documented in various volumes of the Waste Feed Delivery Technical Basis (Carlson. 1999, Rasmussen 1999, and Orme 2000). The waste feed provided to the WTP must: (1) meet limits for chemical and radioactive constituents based on pre-established compositional envelopes (i.e., feed quality); (2) be in acceptable quantities within a prescribed sequence to meet feed quantities; and (3) meet schedule requirements (i.e., feed timing). In the absence of new criteria related to acceptable schedule performance due to the termination of the TWRS Privatization Contract, the original criteria from the Tank Waste Remediation System (77443s) Privatization Contract (DOE 1998) will continue to be used for this analysis.

An adaptive Mantel-Haenszel test for sensitivity analysis in observational studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenbaum, Paul R; Small, Dylan S

2017-06-01

In a sensitivity analysis in an observational study with a binary outcome, is it better to use all of the data or to focus on subgroups that are expected to experience the largest treatment effects? The answer depends on features of the data that may be difficult to anticipate, a trade-off between unknown effect-sizes and known sample sizes. We propose a sensitivity analysis for an adaptive test similar to the Mantel-Haenszel test. The adaptive test performs two highly correlated analyses, one focused analysis using a subgroup, one combined analysis using all of the data, correcting for multiple testing using the joint distribution of the two test statistics. Because the two component tests are highly correlated, this correction for multiple testing is small compared with, for instance, the Bonferroni inequality. The test has the maximum design sensitivity of two component tests. A simulation evaluates the power of a sensitivity analysis using the adaptive test. Two examples are presented. An R package, sensitivity2x2xk, implements the procedure. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Sensitivity analysis for improving nanomechanical photonic transducers biosensors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fariña, D; Álvarez, M; Márquez, S; Lechuga, L M; Dominguez, C

2015-01-01

The achievement of high sensitivity and highly integrated transducers is one of the main challenges in the development of high-throughput biosensors. The aim of this study is to improve the final sensitivity of an opto-mechanical device to be used as a reliable biosensor. We report the analysis of the mechanical and optical properties of optical waveguide microcantilever transducers, and their dependency on device design and dimensions. The selected layout (geometry) based on two butt-coupled misaligned waveguides displays better sensitivities than an aligned one. With this configuration, we find that an optimal microcantilever thickness range between 150 nm and 400 nm would increase both microcantilever bending during the biorecognition process and increase optical sensitivity to 4.8   ×   10 −2  nm −1 , an order of magnitude higher than other similar opto-mechanical devices. Moreover, the analysis shows that a single mode behaviour of the propagating radiation is required to avoid modal interference that could misinterpret the readout signal. (paper)

Sensitivity Analysis of Weather Variables on Offsite Consequence Analysis Tools in South Korea and the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Min-Uk Kim

2018-05-01

Full Text Available We studied sensitive weather variables for consequence analysis, in the case of chemical leaks on the user side of offsite consequence analysis (OCA tools. We used OCA tools Korea Offsite Risk Assessment (KORA and Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA in South Korea and the United States, respectively. The chemicals used for this analysis were 28% ammonia (NH3, 35% hydrogen chloride (HCl, 50% hydrofluoric acid (HF, and 69% nitric acid (HNO3. The accident scenarios were based on leakage accidents in storage tanks. The weather variables were air temperature, wind speed, humidity, and atmospheric stability. Sensitivity analysis was performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS program for dummy regression analysis. Sensitivity analysis showed that impact distance was not sensitive to humidity. Impact distance was most sensitive to atmospheric stability, and was also more sensitive to air temperature than wind speed, according to both the KORA and ALOHA tools. Moreover, the weather variables were more sensitive in rural conditions than in urban conditions, with the ALOHA tool being more influenced by weather variables than the KORA tool. Therefore, if using the ALOHA tool instead of the KORA tool in rural conditions, users should be careful not to cause any differences in impact distance due to input errors of weather variables, with the most sensitive one being atmospheric stability.

Sensitivity Analysis of Weather Variables on Offsite Consequence Analysis Tools in South Korea and the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Min-Uk; Moon, Kyong Whan; Sohn, Jong-Ryeul; Byeon, Sang-Hoon

2018-05-18

We studied sensitive weather variables for consequence analysis, in the case of chemical leaks on the user side of offsite consequence analysis (OCA) tools. We used OCA tools Korea Offsite Risk Assessment (KORA) and Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA) in South Korea and the United States, respectively. The chemicals used for this analysis were 28% ammonia (NH₃), 35% hydrogen chloride (HCl), 50% hydrofluoric acid (HF), and 69% nitric acid (HNO₃). The accident scenarios were based on leakage accidents in storage tanks. The weather variables were air temperature, wind speed, humidity, and atmospheric stability. Sensitivity analysis was performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) program for dummy regression analysis. Sensitivity analysis showed that impact distance was not sensitive to humidity. Impact distance was most sensitive to atmospheric stability, and was also more sensitive to air temperature than wind speed, according to both the KORA and ALOHA tools. Moreover, the weather variables were more sensitive in rural conditions than in urban conditions, with the ALOHA tool being more influenced by weather variables than the KORA tool. Therefore, if using the ALOHA tool instead of the KORA tool in rural conditions, users should be careful not to cause any differences in impact distance due to input errors of weather variables, with the most sensitive one being atmospheric stability.

Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

2010-01-01

As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

Cooling via one hand improves physical performance in heat-sensitive individuals with Multiple Sclerosis: A preliminary study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Murray Julie

2008-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Many individuals afflicted with multiple sclerosis (MS experience a transient worsening of symptoms when body temperature increases due to ambient conditions or physical activity. Resulting symptom exacerbations can limit performance. We hypothesized that extraction of heat from the body through the subcutaneous retia venosa that underlie the palmar surfaces of the hands would reduce exercise-related heat stress and thereby increase the physical performance capacity of heat-sensitive individuals with MS. Methods Ten ambulatory MS patients completed one or more randomized paired trials of walking on a treadmill in a temperate environment with and without cooling. Stop criteria were symptom exacerbation and subjective fatigue. The cooling treatment entailed inserting one hand into a rigid chamber through an elastic sleeve that formed an airtight seal around the wrist. A small vacuum pump created a -40 mm Hg subatmospheric pressure enviinside the chamber where the palmar surface of the hand rested on a metal surface maintained at 18–22°C. During the treatment trials, the device was suspended from above the treadmill on a bungee cord so the subjects could comfortably keep a hand in the device without having to bear its weight while walking on the treadmill. Results When the trials were grouped by treatment only, cooling treatment increased exercise durations by 33% (43.6 ± 17.1 min with treatment vs. 32.8 ± 10.9 min. without treatment, mean ± SD, p -6, paired t-test, n = 26. When the average values were calculated for the subjects who performed multiple trials before the treatment group results were compared, cooling treatment increased exercise duration by 35% (42.8 ± 16.4 min with treatment vs. 31.7 ± 9.8 min. without treatment, mean ± SD, p Conclusion These preliminary results suggest that utilization of the heat transfer capacity of the non-hairy skin surfaces can enable temperature-sensitive individuals with MS to

Crystallization and preliminary X-ray diffraction analysis of diaminopimelate epimerase from Escherichia coli

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hor, Lilian; Dobson, Renwick C. J.; Dogovski, Con; Hutton, Craig A.; Perugini, Matthew A.

2009-01-01

Diaminopimelate (DAP) epimerase, an enzyme in the lysine-biosynthetic pathway, is a promising target for antibiotic development against pathogenic bacteria. Here, the cloning, expression, purification, crystallization and preliminary diffraction analysis of DAP epimerase from E. coli are reported. Diaminopimelate (DAP) epimerase (EC 5.1.1.7) catalyzes the penultimate step of lysine biosynthesis in bacteria and plants, converting l,l-diaminopimelate to meso-diaminopimelate. Here, the cloning, expression, purification, crystallization and preliminary X-ray diffraction analysis of DAP epimerase from Escherichia coli are presented. Crystals were obtained in space group P4 1 2 1 2 and diffracted to 2.0 Å resolution, with unit-cell parameters a = b = 89.4, c = 179.6 Å. Molecular replacement was conducted using Bacillus anthracis DAP epimerase as a search model and showed the presence of two molecules in the asymmetric unit, with an initial R free of 0.456 and R work of 0.416

Cloning, expression, purification, crystallization and preliminary X-ray analysis of the pilus-associated sortase C from Streptococcus pneumoniae

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neiers, F.; Madhurantakam, C.; Fälker, S.; Normark, S.; Henriques-Normark, B.; Achour, A.

2008-01-01

Crystallization conditions and preliminary X-ray diffraction analysis of the S. pneumoniae-derived pilus-associated protein sortase C are reported. The pilus-associated sortase C from Streptococcus pneumoniae (SrtC or Srt-2) acts as a polymerase for the pilus subunit proteins RrgA and RrgB. Here, the crystallization and preliminary X-ray diffraction analysis of three crystal forms of SrtC are reported. One crystal form belongs to space group P2 1 2 1 2 1 , with unit-cell parameters a = 48.9, b = 96.9, c = 98.9 Å, α = β = γ = 90°. The other two crystal forms belong to space group P222, with unit-cell parameters a = 48.8, b = 97.2, c = 99.2 Å, α = β = γ = 90° and a = 48.6, b = 96.5, c = 98.8 Å, α = β = γ = 90°, respectively. Preliminary analysis indicates the presence of two molecules in the asymmetric unit of the crystal for all three forms

Comparing sensitivity analysis methods to advance lumped watershed model identification and evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Tang

2007-01-01

Full Text Available This study seeks to identify sensitivity tools that will advance our understanding of lumped hydrologic models for the purposes of model improvement, calibration efficiency and improved measurement schemes. Four sensitivity analysis methods were tested: (1 local analysis using parameter estimation software (PEST, (2 regional sensitivity analysis (RSA, (3 analysis of variance (ANOVA, and (4 Sobol's method. The methods' relative efficiencies and effectiveness have been analyzed and compared. These four sensitivity methods were applied to the lumped Sacramento soil moisture accounting model (SAC-SMA coupled with SNOW-17. Results from this study characterize model sensitivities for two medium sized watersheds within the Juniata River Basin in Pennsylvania, USA. Comparative results for the 4 sensitivity methods are presented for a 3-year time series with 1 h, 6 h, and 24 h time intervals. The results of this study show that model parameter sensitivities are heavily impacted by the choice of analysis method as well as the model time interval. Differences between the two adjacent watersheds also suggest strong influences of local physical characteristics on the sensitivity methods' results. This study also contributes a comprehensive assessment of the repeatability, robustness, efficiency, and ease-of-implementation of the four sensitivity methods. Overall ANOVA and Sobol's method were shown to be superior to RSA and PEST. Relative to one another, ANOVA has reduced computational requirements and Sobol's method yielded more robust sensitivity rankings.

Preliminary hazards analysis of thermal scrap stabilization system. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewis, W.S.

1994-01-01

This preliminary analysis examined the HA-21I glovebox and its supporting systems for potential process hazards. Upon further analysis, the thermal stabilization system has been installed in gloveboxes HC-21A and HC-21C. The use of HC-21C and HC-21A simplified the initial safety analysis. In addition, these gloveboxes were cleaner and required less modification for operation than glovebox HA-21I. While this document refers to glovebox HA-21I for the hazards analysis performed, glovebox HC-21C is sufficiently similar that the following analysis is also valid for HC-21C. This hazards analysis document is being re-released as revision 1 to include the updated flowsheet document (Appendix C) and the updated design basis (Appendix D). The revised Process Flow Schematic has also been included (Appendix E). This Current revision incorporates the recommendations provided from the original hazards analysis as well. The System Design Description (SDD) has also been appended (Appendix H) to document the bases for Safety Classification of thermal stabilization equipment

Preliminary Shielding Analysis for HCCB TBM Transport

Science.gov (United States)

Miao, Peng; Zhao, Fengchao; Cao, Qixiang; Zhang, Guoshu; Feng, Kaiming

2015-09-01

A preliminary shielding analysis on the transport of the Chinese helium cooled ceramic breeder test blanket module (HCCB TBM) from France back to China after being irradiated in ITER is presented in this contribution. Emphasis was placed on irradiation safety during transport. The dose rate calculated by MCNP/4C for the conceptual package design satisfies the relevant dose limits from IAEA that the dose rate 3 m away from the surface of the package containing low specific activity III materials should be less than 10 mSv/h. The change with location and the time evolution of dose rates after shutdown have also been studied. This will be helpful for devising the detailed transport plan of HCCB TBM back to China in the near future. supported by the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (973 Program) (No. 2013GB108000)

Comparison of global sensitivity analysis methods – Application to fuel behavior modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ikonen, Timo, E-mail: timo.ikonen@vtt.fi

2016-02-15

Highlights: • Several global sensitivity analysis methods are compared. • The methods’ applicability to nuclear fuel performance simulations is assessed. • The implications of large input uncertainties and complex models are discussed. • Alternative strategies to perform sensitivity analyses are proposed. - Abstract: Fuel performance codes have two characteristics that make their sensitivity analysis challenging: large uncertainties in input parameters and complex, non-linear and non-additive structure of the models. The complex structure of the code leads to interactions between inputs that show as cross terms in the sensitivity analysis. Due to the large uncertainties of the inputs these interactions are significant, sometimes even dominating the sensitivity analysis. For the same reason, standard linearization techniques do not usually perform well in the analysis of fuel performance codes. More sophisticated methods are typically needed in the analysis. To this end, we compare the performance of several sensitivity analysis methods in the analysis of a steady state FRAPCON simulation. The comparison of importance rankings obtained with the various methods shows that even the simplest methods can be sufficient for the analysis of fuel maximum temperature. However, the analysis of the gap conductance requires more powerful methods that take into account the interactions of the inputs. In some cases, moment-independent methods are needed. We also investigate the computational cost of the various methods and present recommendations as to which methods to use in the analysis.

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of system availability using Gaussian processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daneshkhah, Alireza; Bedford, Tim

2013-01-01

The availability of a system under a given failure/repair process is a function of time which can be determined through a set of integral equations and usually calculated numerically. We focus here on the issue of carrying out sensitivity analysis of availability to determine the influence of the input parameters. The main purpose is to study the sensitivity of the system availability with respect to the changes in the main parameters. In the simplest case that the failure repair process is (continuous time/discrete state) Markovian, explicit formulae are well known. Unfortunately, in more general cases availability is often a complicated function of the parameters without closed form solution. Thus, the computation of sensitivity measures would be time-consuming or even infeasible. In this paper, we show how Sobol and other related sensitivity measures can be cheaply computed to measure how changes in the model inputs (failure/repair times) influence the outputs (availability measure). We use a Bayesian framework, called the Bayesian analysis of computer code output (BACCO) which is based on using the Gaussian process as an emulator (i.e., an approximation) of complex models/functions. This approach allows effective sensitivity analysis to be achieved by using far smaller numbers of model runs than other methods. The emulator-based sensitivity measure is used to examine the influence of the failure and repair densities' parameters on the system availability. We discuss how to apply the methods practically in the reliability context, considering in particular the selection of parameters and prior distributions and how we can ensure these may be considered independent—one of the key assumptions of the Sobol approach. The method is illustrated on several examples, and we discuss the further implications of the technique for reliability and maintenance analysis

Structure and sensitivity analysis of individual-based predator–prey models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Imron, Muhammad Ali; Gergs, Andre; Berger, Uta

2012-01-01

The expensive computational cost of sensitivity analyses has hampered the use of these techniques for analysing individual-based models in ecology. A relatively cheap computational cost, referred to as the Morris method, was chosen to assess the relative effects of all parameters on the model’s outputs and to gain insights into predator–prey systems. Structure and results of the sensitivity analysis of the Sumatran tiger model – the Panthera Population Persistence (PPP) and the Notonecta foraging model (NFM) – were compared. Both models are based on a general predation cycle and designed to understand the mechanisms behind the predator–prey interaction being considered. However, the models differ significantly in their complexity and the details of the processes involved. In the sensitivity analysis, parameters that directly contribute to the number of prey items killed were found to be most influential. These were the growth rate of prey and the hunting radius of tigers in the PPP model as well as attack rate parameters and encounter distance of backswimmers in the NFM model. Analysis of distances in both of the models revealed further similarities in the sensitivity of the two individual-based models. The findings highlight the applicability and importance of sensitivity analyses in general, and screening design methods in particular, during early development of ecological individual-based models. Comparison of model structures and sensitivity analyses provides a first step for the derivation of general rules in the design of predator–prey models for both practical conservation and conceptual understanding. - Highlights: ► Structure of predation processes is similar in tiger and backswimmer model. ► The two individual-based models (IBM) differ in space formulations. ► In both models foraging distance is among the sensitive parameters. ► Morris method is applicable for the sensitivity analysis even of complex IBMs.

Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis: Description of techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Storlie, Curtis B.; Helton, Jon C.

2008-01-01

The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described: (i) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (ii) additive models, (iii) projection pursuit regression, and (iv) recursive partitioning regression. Then, in the second and concluding part of this presentation, the indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present

The Volatility of Data Space: Topology Oriented Sensitivity Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Jing; Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika

2015-01-01

Despite the difference among specific methods, existing Sensitivity Analysis (SA) technologies are all value-based, that is, the uncertainties in the model input and output are quantified as changes of values. This paradigm provides only limited insight into the nature of models and the modeled systems. In addition to the value of data, a potentially richer information about the model lies in the topological difference between pre-model data space and post-model data space. This paper introduces an innovative SA method called Topology Oriented Sensitivity Analysis, which defines sensitivity as the volatility of data space. It extends SA into a deeper level that lies in the topology of data. PMID:26368929

Cost analysis of small hydroelectric power plants components and preliminary estimation of global cost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basta, C.; Olive, W.J.; Antunes, J.S.

1990-01-01

An analysis of cost for each components of Small Hydroelectric Power Plant, taking into account the real costs of these projects is shown. It also presents a global equation which allows a preliminary estimation of cost for each construction. (author)

Activation analysis by filtered neutrons. Preliminary investigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skarnemark, G.; Rodinson, T.; Skaalberg, M.; Tokay, R.K.

1986-01-01

In order to investigate if measuring sensibility and precision by epithermal neutron activation analysis may be improved, different types of geological and biologic test samples were radiated. The test samples were enclosed in an extra filter of tungsten or sodium in order to reduce the flux of those neutrons that otherwise would induce interfering activity in the sample. The geological test samples consist of granites containing lanthanides which had been crushed in tung- sten carbide grinder. Normally such test samples show a interferins 1 87W-activity. By use of a tungsten filter the activity was reduced by up to 60%, which resulted in a considerable improvement of sensibility and precision of the measurement. The biologic test samples consisted of evaporated urine from patients treated with the cell poison cis-platinol. A reliable method to measure the platinum content has not existed so far. This method, however, enables platinum contents as low as about 0.1 ppm to be determined which is quite adequate. To sum up this preliminary study has demonstrated that activation analysis using filtered neutrons, correctly applied, is a satisfactory method of reducing interferences without complicated and time-consuming chemical separation procedures. (O.S.)

Probabilistic Sensitivities for Fatigue Analysis of Turbine Engine Disks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harry R. Millwater

2006-01-01

Full Text Available A methodology is developed and applied that determines the sensitivities of the probability-of-fracture of a gas turbine disk fatigue analysis with respect to the parameters of the probability distributions describing the random variables. The disk material is subject to initial anomalies, in either low- or high-frequency quantities, such that commonly used materials (titanium, nickel, powder nickel and common damage mechanisms (inherent defects or surface damage can be considered. The derivation is developed for Monte Carlo sampling such that the existing failure samples are used and the sensitivities are obtained with minimal additional computational time. Variance estimates and confidence bounds of the sensitivity estimates are developed. The methodology is demonstrated and verified using a multizone probabilistic fatigue analysis of a gas turbine compressor disk analysis considering stress scatter, crack growth propagation scatter, and initial crack size as random variables.

Application of sensitivity analysis for optimized piping support design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tai, K.; Nakatogawa, T.; Hisada, T.; Noguchi, H.; Ichihashi, I.; Ogo, H.

1993-01-01

The objective of this study was to see if recent developments in non-linear sensitivity analysis could be applied to the design of nuclear piping systems which use non-linear supports and to develop a practical method of designing such piping systems. In the study presented in this paper, the seismic response of a typical piping system was analyzed using a dynamic non-linear FEM and a sensitivity analysis was carried out. Then optimization for the design of the piping system supports was investigated, selecting the support location and yield load of the non-linear supports (bi-linear model) as main design parameters. It was concluded that the optimized design was a matter of combining overall system reliability with the achievement of an efficient damping effect from the non-linear supports. The analysis also demonstrated sensitivity factors are useful in the planning stage of support design. (author)

Least squares shadowing sensitivity analysis of a modified Kuramoto–Sivashinsky equation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blonigan, Patrick J.; Wang, Qiqi

2014-01-01

Highlights: •Modifying the Kuramoto–Sivashinsky equation and changing its boundary conditions make it an ergodic dynamical system. •The modified Kuramoto–Sivashinsky equation exhibits distinct dynamics for three different ranges of system parameters. •Least squares shadowing sensitivity analysis computes accurate gradients for a wide range of system parameters. - Abstract: Computational methods for sensitivity analysis are invaluable tools for scientists and engineers investigating a wide range of physical phenomena. However, many of these methods fail when applied to chaotic systems, such as the Kuramoto–Sivashinsky (K–S) equation, which models a number of different chaotic systems found in nature. The following paper discusses the application of a new sensitivity analysis method developed by the authors to a modified K–S equation. We find that least squares shadowing sensitivity analysis computes accurate gradients for solutions corresponding to a wide range of system parameters

Sensitivity analysis of the nuclear data for MYRRHA reactor modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stankovskiy, Alexey; Van den Eynde, Gert; Cabellos, Oscar; Diez, Carlos J.; Schillebeeckx, Peter; Heyse, Jan

2014-01-01

A global sensitivity analysis of effective neutron multiplication factor k eff to the change of nuclear data library revealed that JEFF-3.2T2 neutron-induced evaluated data library produces closer results to ENDF/B-VII.1 than does JEFF-3.1.2. The analysis of contributions of individual evaluations into k eff sensitivity allowed establishing the priority list of nuclides for which uncertainties on nuclear data must be improved. Detailed sensitivity analysis has been performed for two nuclides from this list, 56 Fe and 238 Pu. The analysis was based on a detailed survey of the evaluations and experimental data. To track the origin of the differences in the evaluations and their impact on k eff , the reaction cross-sections and multiplicities in one evaluation have been substituted by the corresponding data from other evaluations. (authors)

An introduction to sensitivity analysis for unobserved confounding in nonexperimental prevention research.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Weiwei; Kuramoto, S Janet; Stuart, Elizabeth A

2013-12-01

Despite the fact that randomization is the gold standard for estimating causal relationships, many questions in prevention science are often left to be answered through nonexperimental studies because randomization is either infeasible or unethical. While methods such as propensity score matching can adjust for observed confounding, unobserved confounding is the Achilles heel of most nonexperimental studies. This paper describes and illustrates seven sensitivity analysis techniques that assess the sensitivity of study results to an unobserved confounder. These methods were categorized into two groups to reflect differences in their conceptualization of sensitivity analysis, as well as their targets of interest. As a motivating example, we examine the sensitivity of the association between maternal suicide and offspring's risk for suicide attempt hospitalization. While inferences differed slightly depending on the type of sensitivity analysis conducted, overall, the association between maternal suicide and offspring's hospitalization for suicide attempt was found to be relatively robust to an unobserved confounder. The ease of implementation and the insight these analyses provide underscores sensitivity analysis techniques as an important tool for nonexperimental studies. The implementation of sensitivity analysis can help increase confidence in results from nonexperimental studies and better inform prevention researchers and policy makers regarding potential intervention targets.

Sensitivity analysis of numerical solutions for environmental fluid problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, Nobuatsu; Motoyama, Yasunori

2003-01-01

In this study, we present a new numerical method to quantitatively analyze the error of numerical solutions by using the sensitivity analysis. If a reference case of typical parameters is one calculated with the method, no additional calculation is required to estimate the results of the other numerical parameters such as more detailed solutions. Furthermore, we can estimate the strict solution from the sensitivity analysis results and can quantitatively evaluate the reliability of the numerical solution by calculating the numerical error. (author)

Preliminary X-ray analysis of twinned crystals of sarcosine dimethylglycine methyltransferase from Halorhodospira halochoris

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kallio, Juha Pekka; Jänis, Janne; Nyyssölä, Antti; Hakulinen, Nina; Rouvinen, Juha

2009-01-01

The crystallization and preliminary X-ray diffraction analysis of sarcosine dimethylglycine methyltransferase from H. halochoris is reported. Sarcosine dimethylglycine methyltransferase (EC 2.1.1.157) is an enzyme from the extremely halophilic anaerobic bacterium Halorhodospira halochoris. This enzyme catalyzes the twofold methylation of sarcosine to betaine, with S-adenosylmethionine (AdoMet) as the methyl-group donor. This study presents the crystallization and preliminary X-ray analysis of recombinant sarcosine dimethylglycine methyltransferase produced in Escherichia coli. Mass spectroscopy was used to determine the purity and homogeneity of the enzyme material. Two different crystal forms, which initially appeared to be hexagonal and tetragonal, were obtained. However, on analyzing the diffraction data it was discovered that both crystal forms were pseudo-merohedrally twinned. The true crystal systems were monoclinic and orthorhombic. The monoclinic crystal diffracted to a maximum of 2.15 Å resolution and the orthorhombic crystal diffracted to 1.8 Å resolution

The application of sensitivity analysis to models of large scale physiological systems

Science.gov (United States)

Leonard, J. I.

1974-01-01

A survey of the literature of sensitivity analysis as it applies to biological systems is reported as well as a brief development of sensitivity theory. A simple population model and a more complex thermoregulatory model illustrate the investigatory techniques and interpretation of parameter sensitivity analysis. The role of sensitivity analysis in validating and verifying models, and in identifying relative parameter influence in estimating errors in model behavior due to uncertainty in input data is presented. This analysis is valuable to the simulationist and the experimentalist in allocating resources for data collection. A method for reducing highly complex, nonlinear models to simple linear algebraic models that could be useful for making rapid, first order calculations of system behavior is presented.

Synthesis, photophysical and preliminary investigation of the dye

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Synthesis, photophysical and preliminary investigation of the dye-sensitized solar ... with most reduction potential which might be due to increase in the conjugation of ... CSIR Materials Science and Manufacturing, PO Box 395, Pretoria 0001, ...

TEMAC, Top Event Sensitivity Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iman, R.L.; Shortencarier, M.J.

1988-01-01

1 - Description of program or function: TEMAC is designed to permit the user to easily estimate risk and to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analyses with a Boolean expression such as produced by the SETS computer program. SETS produces a mathematical representation of a fault tree used to model system unavailability. In the terminology of the TEMAC program, such a mathematical representation is referred to as a top event. The analysis of risk involves the estimation of the magnitude of risk, the sensitivity of risk estimates to base event probabilities and initiating event frequencies, and the quantification of the uncertainty in the risk estimates. 2 - Method of solution: Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses associated with top events involve mathematical operations on the corresponding Boolean expression for the top event, as well as repeated evaluations of the top event in a Monte Carlo fashion. TEMAC employs a general matrix approach which provides a convenient general form for Boolean expressions, is computationally efficient, and allows large problems to be analyzed. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Maxima of: 4000 cut sets, 500 events, 500 values in a Monte Carlo sample, 16 characters in an event name. These restrictions are implemented through the FORTRAN 77 PARAMATER statement

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis applied to a repository in rock salt

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Polle, A.N.

1996-12-01

This document describes the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis with UNCSAM, as applied to a repository in rock salt for the EVEREST project. UNCSAM is a dedicated software package for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, which was already used within the preceding PROSA project. The use of UNCSAM provides a flexible interface to EMOS ECN by substituting the sampled values in the various input files to be used by EMOS ECN ; the model calculations for this repository were performed with the EMOS ECN code. Preceding the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, a number of preparations has been carried out to facilitate EMOS ECN with the probabilistic input data. For post-processing the EMOS ECN results, the characteristic output signals were processed. For the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis with UNCSAM the stochastic input, i.e. sampled values, and the output for the various EMOS ECN runs have been analyzed. (orig.)

Chemical Analysis of the Moon at the Surveyor VII Landing Site: Preliminary Results.

Science.gov (United States)

Turkevich, A L; Franzgrote, E J; Patterson, J H

1968-10-04

The alpha-scattering experiment aboard Surveyor VII has provided a chemical analysis of the moon in the area of the crater Tycho. The preliminary results indicate a chemical composition similar to that already found at two mare sites, but with a lower concentration of elements of the iron group (titanium through copper).

Analysis for preliminary evaluation of discrete fracture flow and large-scale permeability in sedimentary rocks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanehiro, B.Y.; Lai, C.H.; Stow, S.H.

1987-05-01

Conceptual models for sedimentary rock settings that could be used in future evaluation and suitability studies are being examined through the DOE Repository Technology Program. One area of concern for the hydrologic aspects of these models is discrete fracture flow analysis as related to the estimation of the size of the representative elementary volume, evaluation of the appropriateness of continuum assumptions and estimation of the large-scale permeabilities of sedimentary rocks. A basis for preliminary analysis of flow in fracture systems of the types that might be expected to occur in low permeability sedimentary rocks is presented. The approach used involves numerical modeling of discrete fracture flow for the configuration of a large-scale hydrologic field test directed at estimation of the size of the representative elementary volume and large-scale permeability. Analysis of fracture data on the basis of this configuration is expected to provide a preliminary indication of the scale at which continuum assumptions can be made

Plasma brake model for preliminary mission analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Orsini, Leonardo; Niccolai, Lorenzo; Mengali, Giovanni; Quarta, Alessandro A.

2018-03-01

Plasma brake is an innovative propellantless propulsion system concept that exploits the Coulomb collisions between a charged tether and the ions in the surrounding environment (typically, the ionosphere) to generate an electrostatic force orthogonal to the tether direction. Previous studies on the plasma brake effect have emphasized the existence of a number of different parameters necessary to obtain an accurate description of the propulsive acceleration from a physical viewpoint. The aim of this work is to discuss an analytical model capable of estimating, with the accuracy required by a preliminary mission analysis, the performance of a spacecraft equipped with a plasma brake in a (near-circular) low Earth orbit. The simplified mathematical model is first validated through numerical simulations, and is then used to evaluate the plasma brake performance in some typical mission scenarios, in order to quantify the influence of the system parameters on the mission performance index.

Foregrounds in the BOOMERANG-LDB data: a preliminary rms analysis

OpenAIRE

Masi, S.; Ade, P. A. R.; Bock, J.; Boscaleri, A.; Crill, B. P.; de Bernardis, P.; Ganga, K.; Giacometti, M.; Hivon, E.; Hristov, V. V.; Lange, A. E.; Martinis, L.; Mauskopf, P. D.; Montroy, T.; Netterfield, C. B.

2000-01-01

We present a preliminary analysis of the BOOMERanG LDB maps, focused on foregrounds. BOOMERanG detects dust emission at moderately low galactic latitudes ($b > -20^o$) in bands centered at 90, 150, 240, 410 GHz. At higher Galactic latitudes, we use the BOOMERanG data to set conservative upper limits on the level of contamination at 90 and 150 GHz. We find that the mean square signal correlated with the IRAS/DIRBE dust template is less than 3% of the mean square signal due to CMB anisotropy.

A framework for 2-stage global sensitivity analysis of GastroPlus™ compartmental models.

Science.gov (United States)

Scherholz, Megerle L; Forder, James; Androulakis, Ioannis P

2018-04-01

Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are becoming an important consideration for regulatory submissions, requiring further evaluation to establish the need for global sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the benefits of an extensive analysis, global sensitivity was implemented for the GastroPlus™ model, a well-known commercially available platform, using four example drugs: acetaminophen, risperidone, atenolol, and furosemide. The capabilities of GastroPlus were expanded by developing an integrated framework to automate the GastroPlus graphical user interface with AutoIt and for execution of the sensitivity analysis in MATLAB ® . Global sensitivity analysis was performed in two stages using the Morris method to screen over 50 parameters for significant factors followed by quantitative assessment of variability using Sobol's sensitivity analysis. The 2-staged approach significantly reduced computational cost for the larger model without sacrificing interpretation of model behavior, showing that the sensitivity results were well aligned with the biopharmaceutical classification system. Both methods detected nonlinearities and parameter interactions that would have otherwise been missed by local approaches. Future work includes further exploration of how the input domain influences the calculated global sensitivity measures as well as extending the framework to consider a whole-body PBPK model.

Sensitivity analysis of dynamic characteristic of the fixture based on design variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Dongsheng; Nong Shaoning; Zhang Sijian; Ren Wanfa

2002-01-01

The research on the sensitivity analysis is dealt with of structural natural frequencies to structural design parameters. A typical fixture for vibration test is designed. Using I-DEAS Finite Element programs, the sensitivity of its natural frequency to design parameters is analyzed by Matrix Perturbation Method. The research result shows that the sensitivity analysis is a fast and effective dynamic re-analysis method to dynamic design and parameters modification of complex structures such as fixtures

Justification of investment projects of biogas systems by the sensitivity analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Perebijnos Vasilij Ivanovich

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Methodical features of sensitivity analysis application for evaluation of biogas plants investment projects are shown in the article. Risk factors of the indicated investment projects have been studied. Methodical basis for the use of sensitivity analysis and calculation of elasticity coefficient has been worked out. Calculation of sensitivity analysis and elasticity coefficient of three biogas plants projects, which differ in direction of biogas transformation: use in co-generation plant, application of biomethane as motor fuel and resulting carbon dioxide as marketable product, has been made. Factors strongly affecting projects efficiency have been revealed.

*Corresponding Author Sensitivity Analysis of a Physiochemical ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Michael Horsfall

The numerical method of sensitivity or the principle of parsimony ... analysis is a widely applied numerical method often being used in the .... Chemical Engineering Journal 128(2-3), 85-93. Amod S ... coupled 3-PG and soil organic matter.

Preliminary study of elemental analysis of hydroxyapatite used neutron activation analysis method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yustinus Purwamargapratala; Rina Mulyaningsih

2010-01-01

Preliminary study has been carried out elemental analysis of hydroxyapatite synthesized using the method of neutron activation analysis. Hydroxyapatite is the main component constituent of bones and teeth which can be synthesized from limestone and phosphoric acid. Hydroxyapatite can be used as a bone substitute material and human and animal teeth. Tests on the metal content is necessary to prevent the risk of damage to bones and teeth due to contamination. Results of analysis using neutron activation analysis method with samples irradiated at the neutron flux 10"3 n.det"-"1cm"-"2 for one minute, the impurities of Al (48.60±6.47 mg/kg), CI (38.00±7.47 mg/kg), Mn (1.05±0.19 mg/kg), and Mg (2095.30±203.66 mg/kg), were detected, whereas with irradiation time for 10 minutes and 40 minutes with a time decay of three days there were K (103.89 ± 26.82 mg/kg), Br (1617.06 ± 193.66 mg/kg), and Na (125.10±9.57 mg/kg). These results indicate that there is impurity Al, CI, Mn, Mg, Br, K and Na, although in very small amounts and do not cause damage to bones and teeth. (author)

Sensitivity analysis of time-dependent laminar flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hristova, H.; Etienne, S.; Pelletier, D.; Borggaard, J.

2004-01-01

This paper presents a general sensitivity equation method (SEM) for time dependent incompressible laminar flows. The SEM accounts for complex parameter dependence and is suitable for a wide range of problems. The formulation is verified on a problem with a closed form solution obtained by the method of manufactured solution. Systematic grid convergence studies confirm the theoretical rates of convergence in both space and time. The methodology is then applied to pulsatile flow around a square cylinder. Computations show that the flow starts with symmetrical vortex shedding followed by a transition to the traditional Von Karman street (alternate vortex shedding). Simulations show that the transition phase manifests itself earlier in the sensitivity fields than in the flow field itself. Sensitivities are then demonstrated for fast evaluation of nearby flows and uncertainty analysis. (author)

Sensitivity analysis of LOFT L2-5 test calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prosek, Andrej

2014-01-01

The uncertainty quantification of best-estimate code predictions is typically accompanied by a sensitivity analysis, in which the influence of the individual contributors to uncertainty is determined. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the improved fast Fourier transform based method by signal mirroring (FFTBM-SM) for the sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity study was performed for the LOFT L2-5 test, which simulates the large break loss of coolant accident. There were 14 participants in the BEMUSE (Best Estimate Methods-Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation) programme, each performing a reference calculation and 15 sensitivity runs of the LOFT L2-5 test. The important input parameters varied were break area, gap conductivity, fuel conductivity, decay power etc. For the influence of input parameters on the calculated results the FFTBM-SM was used. The only difference between FFTBM-SM and original FFTBM is that in the FFTBM-SM the signals are symmetrized to eliminate the edge effect (the so called edge is the difference between the first and last data point of one period of the signal) in calculating average amplitude. It is very important to eliminate unphysical contribution to the average amplitude, which is used as a figure of merit for input parameter influence on output parameters. The idea is to use reference calculation as 'experimental signal', 'sensitivity run' as 'calculated signal', and average amplitude as figure of merit for sensitivity instead for code accuracy. The larger is the average amplitude the larger is the influence of varied input parameter. The results show that with FFTBM-SM the analyst can get good picture of the contribution of the parameter variation to the results. They show when the input parameters are influential and how big is this influence. FFTBM-SM could be also used to quantify the influence of several parameter variations on the results. However, the influential parameters could not be

Importance measures in global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Homma, Toshimitsu; Saltelli, Andrea

1996-01-01

The present paper deals with a new method of global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models. This is based on a measure of importance to calculate the fractional contribution of the input parameters to the variance of the model prediction. Measures of importance in sensitivity analysis have been suggested by several authors, whose work is reviewed in this article. More emphasis is given to the developments of sensitivity indices by the Russian mathematician I.M. Sobol'. Given that Sobol' treatment of the measure of importance is the most general, his formalism is employed throughout this paper where conceptual and computational improvements of the method are presented. The computational novelty of this study is the introduction of the 'total effect' parameter index. This index provides a measure of the total effect of a given parameter, including all the possible synergetic terms between that parameter and all the others. Rank transformation of the data is also introduced in order to increase the reproducibility of the method. These methods are tested on a few analytical and computer models. The main conclusion of this work is the identification of a sensitivity analysis methodology which is both flexible, accurate and informative, and which can be achieved at reasonable computational cost

Sensitivity Analysis of the Integrated Medical Model for ISS Programs

Science.gov (United States)

Goodenow, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Arellano, J.; Boley, L.; Garcia, Y.; Saile, L.; Walton, M.; Kerstman, E.; Reyes, D.; Young, M.

2016-01-01

Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Standardized Rank Regression Coefficient (SRRC) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on nonlinear simulation models like the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The partial part is so named because adjustments are made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. In SRRC, standardized regression-based coefficients measure the sensitivity of each input, adjusted for all the other inputs, on each output. Because the relative ranking of each of the inputs and outputs is used, as opposed to the values themselves, both methods accommodate the nonlinear relationship of the underlying model. As part of the IMM v4.0 validation study, simulations are available that predict 33 person-missions on ISS and 111 person-missions on STS. These simulated data predictions feed the sensitivity analysis procedures. The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number occurrences of each of the one hundred IMM medical conditions generated over the simulations and the associated IMM outputs: total quality time lost (QTL), number of evacuations (EVAC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMM team will report the results of using PRCC and SRRC on IMM v4.0 predictions of the ISS and STS missions created as part of the external validation study. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral

Adjoint sensitivity analysis of high frequency structures with Matlab

CERN Document Server

Bakr, Mohamed; Demir, Veysel

2017-01-01

This book covers the theory of adjoint sensitivity analysis and uses the popular FDTD (finite-difference time-domain) method to show how wideband sensitivities can be efficiently estimated for different types of materials and structures. It includes a variety of MATLAB® examples to help readers absorb the content more easily.

System reliability assessment via sensitivity analysis in the Markov chain scheme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gandini, A.

1988-01-01

Methods for reliability sensitivity analysis in the Markov chain scheme are presented, together with a new formulation which makes use of Generalized Perturbation Theory (GPT) methods. As well known, sensitivity methods are fundamental in system risk analysis, since they allow to identify important components, so to assist the analyst in finding weaknesses in design and operation and in suggesting optimal modifications for system upgrade. The relationship between the GPT sensitivity expression and the Birnbaum importance is also given [fr

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the PATHWAY radionuclide transport model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otis, M.D.

1983-01-01

Procedures were developed for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a dynamic model of radionuclide transport through human food chains. Uncertainty in model predictions was estimated by propagation of parameter uncertainties using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. Sensitivity of model predictions to individual parameters was investigated using the partial correlation coefficient of each parameter with model output. Random values produced for the uncertainty analysis were used in the correlation analysis for sensitivity. These procedures were applied to the PATHWAY model which predicts concentrations of radionuclides in foods grown in Nevada and Utah and exposed to fallout during the period of atmospheric nuclear weapons testing in Nevada. Concentrations and time-integrated concentrations of iodine-131, cesium-136, and cesium-137 in milk and other foods were investigated. 9 figs., 13 tabs

Gas cooled fast reactor 2400 MWTh, status on the conceptual design studies and preliminary safety analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malo, J.Y.; Alpy, N.; Bentivoglio, F.

2009-01-01

The Gas cooled Fast Reactor (GFR) is considered by the French Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique as a promising concept, combining the benefits of fast spectrum and high temperature, using Helium as coolant. A status on the GFR preliminary viability was made at the end of 2007, ending the pre-conceptual design phase. A consistent overall systems arrangement was proposed and a preliminary safety analysis based on operating transient calculations and a simplified PSA had established a global confidence in the feasibility and safety of this baseline concept. Its potential for attractive performances had been pointed out. Compare to the more mature Sodium Fast Reactor technology, no demonstrator has ever been built and the feasibility demonstration will required a longer lead time. The next main project milestone is related to the GFR viability, scheduled in 2012. The current studies consist in revisiting the reactor reference design options as selected at the end of 2007. Most of them are being consolidated by going more in depth in the analysis. Some possible alternatives are assessed. The paper will give a status on the last studies performed on the core design and corresponding neutronics and cycle performance, the Decay Heat Removal strategy and preliminary safety analysis, systems design and balance of plant... This paper is complementary to the Icapp'09 papers 9062 dealing with the Gas cooled Fast Reactor Demonstrator ALLEGRO and 9378 related to GFR transients analysis. (author)

Interactive Building Design Space Exploration Using Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Østergård, Torben; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Maagaard, Steffen

2017-01-01

simulation inputs are most important and which have negligible influence on the model output. Popular sensitivity methods include the Morris method, variance-based methods (e.g. Sobol’s), and regression methods (e.g. SRC). However, all these methods only address one output at a time, which makes it difficult...... in combination with the interactive parallel coordinate plot (PCP). The latter is an effective tool to explore stochastic simulations and to find high-performing building designs. The proposed methods help decision makers to focus their attention to the most important design parameters when exploring......Monte Carlo simulations combined with regionalized sensitivity analysis provide the means to explore a vast, multivariate design space in building design. Typically, sensitivity analysis shows how the variability of model output relates to the uncertainties in models inputs. This reveals which...

Crystallization and preliminary X-ray diffraction analysis of the MIF4G domain of DAP5

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frank, Filipp; Virgili, Geneviève; Sonenberg, Nahum; Nagar, Bhushan

2009-01-01

The MIF4G domain of DAP5 was crystallized in two distinct crystal forms. Diffraction patterns have been analyzed and preliminary analysis, including molecular replacement, is presented here. Death-associated protein 5 (DAP5) is a member of the eIF4G family of scaffolding proteins that mediate cap-independent translation initiation by recruiting the translational machinery to internal ribosomal entry sites (IRESs) on mRNA. The MIF4G domain of DAP5 directly interacts with the eukaryotic initiation factors eIF4A and eIF3 and enhances the translation of several viral and cellular IRESs. Here, the crystallization and preliminary X-ray diffraction analysis of the MIF4G domain of DAP5 is presented

Sensitivity analysis of reactive ecological dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Verdy, Ariane; Caswell, Hal

2008-08-01

Ecological systems with asymptotically stable equilibria may exhibit significant transient dynamics following perturbations. In some cases, these transient dynamics include the possibility of excursions away from the equilibrium before the eventual return; systems that exhibit such amplification of perturbations are called reactive. Reactivity is a common property of ecological systems, and the amplification can be large and long-lasting. The transient response of a reactive ecosystem depends on the parameters of the underlying model. To investigate this dependence, we develop sensitivity analyses for indices of transient dynamics (reactivity, the amplification envelope, and the optimal perturbation) in both continuous- and discrete-time models written in matrix form. The sensitivity calculations require expressions, some of them new, for the derivatives of equilibria, eigenvalues, singular values, and singular vectors, obtained using matrix calculus. Sensitivity analysis provides a quantitative framework for investigating the mechanisms leading to transient growth. We apply the methodology to a predator-prey model and a size-structured food web model. The results suggest predator-driven and prey-driven mechanisms for transient amplification resulting from multispecies interactions.

Chemical Analysis of the Moon at the Surveyor VI Landing Site: Preliminary Results.

Science.gov (United States)

Turkevich, A L; Patterson, J H; Franzgrote, E J

1968-06-07

The alpha-scattering experiment aboard soft-landing Surveyor VI has provided a chemical analysis of the surface of the moon in Sinus Medii. The preliminary results indicate that, within experimental errors, the composition is the same as that found by Surveyor V in Mare Tranquillitatis. This finding suggests that large portions of the lunar maria resemble basalt in composition.

Deterministic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for large-scale computer models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worley, B.A.; Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.; Maerker, R.E.; Horwedel, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.

1988-01-01

The fields of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis have traditionally been dominated by statistical techniques when large-scale modeling codes are being analyzed. These methods are able to estimate sensitivities, generate response surfaces, and estimate response probability distributions given the input parameter probability distributions. Because the statistical methods are computationally costly, they are usually applied only to problems with relatively small parameter sets. Deterministic methods, on the other hand, are very efficient and can handle large data sets, but generally require simpler models because of the considerable programming effort required for their implementation. The first part of this paper reports on the development and availability of two systems, GRESS and ADGEN, that make use of computer calculus compilers to automate the implementation of deterministic sensitivity analysis capability into existing computer models. This automation removes the traditional limitation of deterministic sensitivity methods. This second part of the paper describes a deterministic uncertainty analysis method (DUA) that uses derivative information as a basis to propagate parameter probability distributions to obtain result probability distributions. This paper is applicable to low-level radioactive waste disposal system performance assessment

Linear Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of the Constraint Coefficient Matrix in Linear Programs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R.A. Zuidwijk (Rob)

2005-01-01

textabstractSensitivity analysis is used to quantify the impact of changes in the initial data of linear programs on the optimal value. In particular, parametric sensitivity analysis involves a perturbation analysis in which the effects of small changes of some or all of the initial data on an

Sensitivity Analysis Based on Markovian Integration by Parts Formula

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yongsheng Hang

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Sensitivity analysis is widely applied in financial risk management and engineering; it describes the variations brought by the changes of parameters. Since the integration by parts technique for Markov chains is well developed in recent years, in this paper we apply it for computation of sensitivity and show the closed-form expressions for two commonly-used time-continuous Markovian models. By comparison, we conclude that our approach outperforms the existing technique of computing sensitivity on Markovian models.

Parameter uncertainty effects on variance-based sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, W.; Harris, T.J.

2009-01-01

In the past several years there has been considerable commercial and academic interest in methods for variance-based sensitivity analysis. The industrial focus is motivated by the importance of attributing variance contributions to input factors. A more complete understanding of these relationships enables companies to achieve goals related to quality, safety and asset utilization. In a number of applications, it is possible to distinguish between two types of input variables-regressive variables and model parameters. Regressive variables are those that can be influenced by process design or by a control strategy. With model parameters, there are typically no opportunities to directly influence their variability. In this paper, we propose a new method to perform sensitivity analysis through a partitioning of the input variables into these two groupings: regressive variables and model parameters. A sequential analysis is proposed, where first an sensitivity analysis is performed with respect to the regressive variables. In the second step, the uncertainty effects arising from the model parameters are included. This strategy can be quite useful in understanding process variability and in developing strategies to reduce overall variability. When this method is used for nonlinear models which are linear in the parameters, analytical solutions can be utilized. In the more general case of models that are nonlinear in both the regressive variables and the parameters, either first order approximations can be used, or numerically intensive methods must be used

Sensitivity analysis for decision-making using the MORE method-A Pareto approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ravalico, Jakin K.; Maier, Holger R.; Dandy, Graeme C.

2009-01-01

Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) incorporates knowledge from different disciplines to provide an overarching assessment of the impact of different management decisions. The complex nature of these models, which often include non-linearities and feedback loops, requires special attention for sensitivity analysis. This is especially true when the models are used to form the basis of management decisions, where it is important to assess how sensitive the decisions being made are to changes in model parameters. This research proposes an extension to the Management Option Rank Equivalence (MORE) method of sensitivity analysis; a new method of sensitivity analysis developed specifically for use in IAM and decision-making. The extension proposes using a multi-objective Pareto optimal search to locate minimum combined parameter changes that result in a change in the preferred management option. It is demonstrated through a case study of the Namoi River, where results show that the extension to MORE is able to provide sensitivity information for individual parameters that takes into account simultaneous variations in all parameters. Furthermore, the increased sensitivities to individual parameters that are discovered when joint parameter variation is taken into account shows the importance of ensuring that any sensitivity analysis accounts for these changes.

Preliminary hazard analysis for the Brayton Isotope Ground Demonstration System (including vacuum test chamber)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, L.G.

1975-01-01

The Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA) of the BIPS-GDS is a tabular summary of hazards and undesired events which may lead to system damage or failure and/or hazard to personnel. The PHA reviews the GDS as it is envisioned to operate in the Vacuum Test Chamber (VTC) of the GDS Test Facility. The VTC and other equipment which will comprise the test facility are presently in an early stage of preliminary design and will undoubtedly undergo numerous changes before the design is frozen. The PHA and the FMECA to follow are intended to aid the design effort by identifying areas of concern which are critical to the safety and reliability of the BIPS-GDS and test facility

Global sensitivity analysis of DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated forest ecosystem model

Science.gov (United States)

Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; Devendra M. Amatya; Eric D. Vance

2014-01-01

Global sensitivity analysis is a useful tool to understand process-based ecosystem models by identifying key parameters and processes controlling model predictions. This study reported a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated model for simulating water, carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) cycles and plant growth in lowland forests. The...

Sensitivity Analysis of Centralized Dynamic Cell Selection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lopez, Victor Fernandez; Alvarez, Beatriz Soret; Pedersen, Klaus I.

2016-01-01

and a suboptimal optimization algorithm that nearly achieves the performance of the optimal Hungarian assignment. Moreover, an exhaustive sensitivity analysis with different network and traffic configurations is carried out in order to understand what conditions are more appropriate for the use of the proposed...

Applications of advances in nonlinear sensitivity analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Werbos, P J

1982-01-01

The following paper summarizes the major properties and applications of a collection of algorithms involving differentiation and optimization at minimum cost. The areas of application include the sensitivity analysis of models, new work in statistical or econometric estimation, optimization, artificial intelligence and neuron modelling.

Original Article PRELIMINARY BIOAUTOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS OF ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Sierra Leone 2Department of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, Faculty of Pharmacy, ... the seeds are used in the treatment of skin infections. ... Screening with DPPH showed prominent antioxidant spots on silica at Rf 0.8, 0.5, 0.4 .... underpins conditions like rheumatoid arthritis, ..... As a follow-up to the preliminary TLC studies.

Crystallization and preliminary X-ray analysis of isomaltase from Saccharomyces cerevisiae

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamamoto, Keizo; Miyake, Hideo; Kusunoki, Masami; Osaki, Shigeyoshi

2008-01-01

The crystallization and preliminary X-ray analysis of isomaltase is reported. Isomaltase from Saccharomyces cerevisiae is an oligo-1,6-glucosidase that preferentially hydrolyzes isomaltose, with little activity towards isomaltotriose or longer oligosaccharides. An amino-acid sequence analysis of the isomaltase revealed that it belongs to glucoside hydrolase family 13. Recombinant isomaltase was purified and crystallized by the hanging-drop vapour-diffusion method with PEG 3350 as the precipitant. The crystals belonged to space group C2, with unit-cell parameters a = 95.67, b = 115.42, c = 61.77 Å, β = 91.17°. X-ray diffraction data were collected to 1.35 Å resolution from a single crystal on a synchrotron-radiation source

Preliminary analysis of a membrane-based atmosphere-control subsystem

Science.gov (United States)

Mccray, Scott B.; Newbold, David D.; Ray, Rod; Ogle, Kathryn

1993-01-01

Controlled ecological life supprot systems will require subsystems for maintaining the consentrations of atmospheric gases within acceptable ranges in human habitat chambers and plant growth chambers. The goal of this work was to develop a membrane-based atmosphere comntrol (MBAC) subsystem that allows the controlled exchange of atmospheric componets (e.g., oxygen, carbon dioxide, and water vapor) between these chambers. The MBAC subsystem promises to offer a simple, nonenergy intensive method to separate, store and exchange atmospheric components, producing optimal concentrations of components in each chamber. In this paper, the results of a preliminary analysis of the MBAC subsystem for control of oxygen and nitrogen are presented. Additionally, the MBAC subsystem and its operation are described.

Prior Sensitivity Analysis in Default Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

van Erp, Sara; Mulder, Joris; Oberski, Daniel L

2017-11-27

Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) has recently gained popularity because it enables researchers to fit complex models and solve some of the issues often encountered in classical maximum likelihood estimation, such as nonconvergence and inadmissible solutions. An important component of any Bayesian analysis is the prior distribution of the unknown model parameters. Often, researchers rely on default priors, which are constructed in an automatic fashion without requiring substantive prior information. However, the prior can have a serious influence on the estimation of the model parameters, which affects the mean squared error, bias, coverage rates, and quantiles of the estimates. In this article, we investigate the performance of three different default priors: noninformative improper priors, vague proper priors, and empirical Bayes priors-with the latter being novel in the BSEM literature. Based on a simulation study, we find that these three default BSEM methods may perform very differently, especially with small samples. A careful prior sensitivity analysis is therefore needed when performing a default BSEM analysis. For this purpose, we provide a practical step-by-step guide for practitioners to conducting a prior sensitivity analysis in default BSEM. Our recommendations are illustrated using a well-known case study from the structural equation modeling literature, and all code for conducting the prior sensitivity analysis is available in the online supplemental materials. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

An overview of the design and analysis of simulation experiments for sensitivity analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.

2005-01-01

Sensitivity analysis may serve validation, optimization, and risk analysis of simulation models. This review surveys 'classic' and 'modern' designs for experiments with simulation models. Classic designs were developed for real, non-simulated systems in agriculture, engineering, etc. These designs

Sensitivity analysis of a greedy heuristic for knapsack problems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ghosh, D; Chakravarti, N; Sierksma, G

2006-01-01

In this paper, we carry out parametric analysis as well as a tolerance limit based sensitivity analysis of a greedy heuristic for two knapsack problems-the 0-1 knapsack problem and the subset sum problem. We carry out the parametric analysis based on all problem parameters. In the tolerance limit

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis with CASL Core Simulator VERA-CS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, C.S.; Zhang, Hongbin

2016-01-01

VERA-CS (Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications, Core Simulator) is a coupled neutron transport and thermal-hydraulics code under development by the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). An approach to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis with VERA-CS was developed and a new toolkit was created to perform uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. A 2 × 2 fuel assembly model was developed and simulated by VERA-CS, and uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis were performed with fourteen uncertain input parameters. The minimum departure from nucleate boiling ratio (MDNBR), maximum fuel center-line temperature, and maximum outer clad surface temperature were chosen as the selected figures of merit. Pearson, Spearman, and partial correlation coefficients were considered for all of the figures of merit in sensitivity analysis and coolant inlet temperature was consistently the most influential parameter. Parameters used as inputs to the critical heat flux calculation with the W-3 correlation were shown to be the most influential on the MDNBR, maximum fuel center-line temperature, and maximum outer clad surface temperature.

Sensitivity analysis on various parameters for lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel with WIMS-AECL code

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roh, Gyu Hong; Choi, Hang Bok; Park, Jee Won [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

1998-12-31

The code WIMS-AECL has been used for the lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel. The lattice parameters calculated by the code is sensitive to the choice of number of parameters, such as the number of tracking lines, number of condensed groups, mesh spacing in the moderator region, other parameters vital to the calculation of probabilities and burnup analysis. We have studied this sensitivity with respect to these parameters and recommend their proper values which are necessary for carrying out the lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel.

Sensitivity analysis on various parameters for lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel with WIMS-AECL code

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roh, Gyu Hong; Choi, Hang Bok; Park, Jee Won [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

1997-12-31

The code WIMS-AECL has been used for the lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel. The lattice parameters calculated by the code is sensitive to the choice of number of parameters, such as the number of tracking lines, number of condensed groups, mesh spacing in the moderator region, other parameters vital to the calculation of probabilities and burnup analysis. We have studied this sensitivity with respect to these parameters and recommend their proper values which are necessary for carrying out the lattice analysis of DUPIC fuel.

Generalized tolerance sensitivity and DEA metric sensitivity

OpenAIRE

Neralić, Luka; E. Wendell, Richard

2015-01-01

This paper considers the relationship between Tolerance sensitivity analysis in optimization and metric sensitivity analysis in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Herein, we extend the results on the generalized Tolerance framework proposed by Wendell and Chen and show how this framework includes DEA metric sensitivity as a special case. Further, we note how recent results in Tolerance sensitivity suggest some possible extensions of the results in DEA metric sensitivity.

Generalized tolerance sensitivity and DEA metric sensitivity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luka Neralić

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This paper considers the relationship between Tolerance sensitivity analysis in optimization and metric sensitivity analysis in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA. Herein, we extend the results on the generalized Tolerance framework proposed by Wendell and Chen and show how this framework includes DEA metric sensitivity as a special case. Further, we note how recent results in Tolerance sensitivity suggest some possible extensions of the results in DEA metric sensitivity.

Demonstration sensitivity analysis for RADTRAN III

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neuhauser, K.S.; Reardon, P.C.

1986-10-01

A demonstration sensitivity analysis was performed to: quantify the relative importance of 37 variables to the total incident free dose; assess the elasticity of seven dose subgroups to those same variables; develop density distributions for accident dose to combinations of accident data under wide-ranging variations; show the relationship between accident consequences and probabilities of occurrence; and develop limits for the variability of probability consequence curves

Sensitivity analysis of water consumption in an office building

Science.gov (United States)

Suchacek, Tomas; Tuhovcak, Ladislav; Rucka, Jan

2018-02-01

This article deals with sensitivity analysis of real water consumption in an office building. During a long-term real study, reducing of pressure in its water connection was simulated. A sensitivity analysis of uneven water demand was conducted during working time at various provided pressures and at various time step duration. Correlations between maximal coefficients of water demand variation during working time and provided pressure were suggested. The influence of provided pressure in the water connection on mean coefficients of water demand variation was pointed out, altogether for working hours of all days and separately for days with identical working hours.

An Overview of the Design and Analysis of Simulation Experiments for Sensitivity Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.

2004-01-01

Sensitivity analysis may serve validation, optimization, and risk analysis of simulation models.This review surveys classic and modern designs for experiments with simulation models.Classic designs were developed for real, non-simulated systems in agriculture, engineering, etc.These designs assume a

Sensitivity analysis in the WWTP modelling community – new opportunities and applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sin, Gürkan; Ruano, M.V.; Neumann, Marc B.

2010-01-01

design (BSM1 plant layout) using Standardized Regression Coefficients (SRC) and (ii) Applying sensitivity analysis to help fine-tuning a fuzzy controller for a BNPR plant using Morris Screening. The results obtained from each case study are then critically discussed in view of practical applications......A mainstream viewpoint on sensitivity analysis in the wastewater modelling community is that it is a first-order differential analysis of outputs with respect to the parameters – typically obtained by perturbing one parameter at a time with a small factor. An alternative viewpoint on sensitivity...

Contribution to the sample mean plot for graphical and numerical sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bolado-Lavin, R.; Castaings, W.; Tarantola, S.

2009-01-01

The contribution to the sample mean plot, originally proposed by Sinclair, is revived and further developed as practical tool for global sensitivity analysis. The potentials of this simple and versatile graphical tool are discussed. Beyond the qualitative assessment provided by this approach, a statistical test is proposed for sensitivity analysis. A case study that simulates the transport of radionuclides through the geosphere from an underground disposal vault containing nuclear waste is considered as a benchmark. The new approach is tested against a very efficient sensitivity analysis method based on state dependent parameter meta-modelling

Personalization of models with many model parameters : an efficient sensitivity analysis approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Donders, W.P.; Huberts, W.; van de Vosse, F.N.; Delhaas, T.

2015-01-01

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis are indispensable for patient-specific applications of models that enhance diagnosis or aid decision-making. Variance-based sensitivity analysis methods, which apportion each fraction of the output uncertainty (variance) to the effects of

Seismic sensitivity study of a generic CANDU nuclear power plant: Soil-structure interaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, L.S.S.; Duff, C.G.

1983-01-01

The seismic sensitivity and capability study for a generic CANDU Plant is part of an overall development program of design standardization. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the sensitivities of structural responses and floor response spectra (FRS) to variations of structural and soil parameters. In the seismic design standardization, a wide range of soil conditions is considered and the envelopes of the resulting site spectra (soil-structure interaction effect) are then used for the design of the generic plant. The nuclear island structures considered herein have different relative stiffness and one of them has two layout/structure schemes: one is relatively flexible and the other is moderately stiff. In the preliminary phase of the seismic sensitivity study presented hereby, the soil-structure interaction seismic analysis is based on the half-space modelling (soil-spring lumped-mass) method and the response spectrum method for the seismic responses. Distinct patterns and sensitivity of the site spectrum analysis for structure schemes of different relative stiffness and for different structural elevations are observed and discussed. (orig.)

A New Computationally Frugal Method For Sensitivity Analysis Of Environmental Models

Science.gov (United States)

Rakovec, O.; Hill, M. C.; Clark, M. P.; Weerts, A.; Teuling, R.; Borgonovo, E.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2013-12-01

Effective and efficient parameter sensitivity analysis methods are crucial to understand the behaviour of complex environmental models and use of models in risk assessment. This paper proposes a new computationally frugal method for analyzing parameter sensitivity: the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA). The DELSA method can be considered a hybrid of local and global methods, and focuses explicitly on multiscale evaluation of parameter sensitivity across the parameter space. Results of the DELSA method are compared with the popular global, variance-based Sobol' method and the delta method. We assess the parameter sensitivity of both (1) a simple non-linear reservoir model with only two parameters, and (2) five different "bucket-style" hydrologic models applied to a medium-sized catchment (200 km2) in the Belgian Ardennes. Results show that in both the synthetic and real-world examples, the global Sobol' method and the DELSA method provide similar sensitivities, with the DELSA method providing more detailed insight at much lower computational cost. The ability to understand how sensitivity measures vary through parameter space with modest computational requirements provides exciting new opportunities.

Seismic analysis of steam generator and parameter sensitivity studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qian Hao; Xu Dinggen; Yang Ren'an; Liang Xingyun

2013-01-01

Background: The steam generator (SG) serves as the primary means for removing the heat generated within the reactor core and is part of the reactor coolant system (RCS) pressure boundary. Purpose: Seismic analysis in required for SG, whose seismic category is Cat. I. Methods: The analysis model of SG is created with moisture separator assembly and tube bundle assembly herein. The seismic analysis is performed with RCS pipe and Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV). Results: The seismic stress results of SG are obtained. In addition, parameter sensitivities of seismic analysis results are studied, such as the effect of another SG, support, anti-vibration bars (AVBs), and so on. Our results show that seismic results are sensitive to support and AVBs setting. Conclusions: The guidance and comments on these parameters are summarized for equipment design and analysis, which should be focused on in future new type NPP SG's research and design. (authors)

An Application of Monte-Carlo-Based Sensitivity Analysis on the Overlap in Discriminant Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Razmyan

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Discriminant analysis (DA is used for the measurement of estimates of a discriminant function by minimizing their group misclassifications to predict group membership of newly sampled data. A major source of misclassification in DA is due to the overlapping of groups. The uncertainty in the input variables and model parameters needs to be properly characterized in decision making. This study combines DEA-DA with a sensitivity analysis approach to an assessment of the influence of banks’ variables on the overall variance in overlap in a DA in order to determine which variables are most significant. A Monte-Carlo-based sensitivity analysis is considered for computing the set of first-order sensitivity indices of the variables to estimate the contribution of each uncertain variable. The results show that the uncertainties in the loans granted and different deposit variables are more significant than uncertainties in other banks’ variables in decision making.

Relative risk analysis in regulating the use of radiation-emitting medical devices. A preliminary application

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.; Fischer, L.E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

1995-09-01

This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC.

Relative risk analysis in regulating the use of radiation-emitting medical devices. A preliminary application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, E.D.; Banks, W.W.; Altenbach, T.J.; Fischer, L.E.

1995-09-01

This report describes a preliminary application of an analysis approach for assessing relative risks in the use of radiation- emitting medical devices. Results are presented on human-initiated actions and failure modes that are most likely to occur in the use of the Gamma Knife, a gamma irradiation therapy device. This effort represents an initial step in a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) plan to evaluate the potential role of risk analysis in regulating the use of nuclear medical devices. For this preliminary application of risk assessment, the focus was to develop a basic process using existing techniques for identifying the most likely risk contributors and their relative importance. The approach taken developed relative risk rankings and profiles that incorporated the type and quality of data available and could present results in an easily understood form. This work was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the NRC

Steady state likelihood ratio sensitivity analysis for stiff kinetic Monte Carlo simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Núñez, M; Vlachos, D G

2015-01-28

Kinetic Monte Carlo simulation is an integral tool in the study of complex physical phenomena present in applications ranging from heterogeneous catalysis to biological systems to crystal growth and atmospheric sciences. Sensitivity analysis is useful for identifying important parameters and rate-determining steps, but the finite-difference application of sensitivity analysis is computationally demanding. Techniques based on the likelihood ratio method reduce the computational cost of sensitivity analysis by obtaining all gradient information in a single run. However, we show that disparity in time scales of microscopic events, which is ubiquitous in real systems, introduces drastic statistical noise into derivative estimates for parameters affecting the fast events. In this work, the steady-state likelihood ratio sensitivity analysis is extended to singularly perturbed systems by invoking partial equilibration for fast reactions, that is, by working on the fast and slow manifolds of the chemistry. Derivatives on each time scale are computed independently and combined to the desired sensitivity coefficients to considerably reduce the noise in derivative estimates for stiff systems. The approach is demonstrated in an analytically solvable linear system.

Sensitivity Analysis of OECD Benchmark Tests in BISON

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Swiler, Laura Painton [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gamble, Kyle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Schmidt, Rodney C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Williamson, Richard [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-09-01

This report summarizes a NEAMS (Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation) project focused on sensitivity analysis of a fuels performance benchmark problem. The benchmark problem was defined by the Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling working group of the Nuclear Science Committee, part of the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD ). The benchmark problem involv ed steady - state behavior of a fuel pin in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The problem was created in the BISON Fuels Performance code. Dakota was used to generate and analyze 300 samples of 17 input parameters defining core boundary conditions, manuf acturing tolerances , and fuel properties. There were 24 responses of interest, including fuel centerline temperatures at a variety of locations and burnup levels, fission gas released, axial elongation of the fuel pin, etc. Pearson and Spearman correlatio n coefficients and Sobol' variance - based indices were used to perform the sensitivity analysis. This report summarizes the process and presents results from this study.

Mini-DIAL system measurements coupled with multivariate data analysis to identify TIC and TIM simulants: preliminary absorption database analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gaudio, P; Malizia, A; Gelfusa, M; Poggi, L.A.; Martinelli, E.; Di Natale, C.; Bellecci, C.

2017-01-01

Nowadays Toxic Industrial Components (TICs) and Toxic Industrial Materials (TIMs) are one of the most dangerous and diffuse vehicle of contamination in urban and industrial areas. The academic world together with the industrial and military one are working on innovative solutions to monitor the diffusion in atmosphere of such pollutants. In this phase the most common commercial sensors are based on “point detection” technology but it is clear that such instruments cannot satisfy the needs of the smart cities. The new challenge is developing stand-off systems to continuously monitor the atmosphere. Quantum Electronics and Plasma Physics (QEP) research group has a long experience in laser system development and has built two demonstrators based on DIAL (Differential Absorption of Light) technology could be able to identify chemical agents in atmosphere. In this work the authors will present one of those DIAL system, the miniaturized one, together with the preliminary results of an experimental campaign conducted on TICs and TIMs simulants in cell with aim of use the absorption database for the further atmospheric an analysis using the same DIAL system. The experimental results are analysed with standard multivariate data analysis technique as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to develop a classification model aimed at identifying organic chemical compound in atmosphere. The preliminary results of absorption coefficients of some chemical compound are shown together pre PCA analysis. (paper)

Sensitivity Analysis of the Critical Speed in Railway Vehicle Dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bigoni, Daniele; True, Hans; Engsig-Karup, Allan Peter

2014-01-01

We present an approach to global sensitivity analysis aiming at the reduction of its computational cost without compromising the results. The method is based on sampling methods, cubature rules, High-Dimensional Model Representation and Total Sensitivity Indices. The approach has a general applic...

An Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis for Unobserved Confounding in Non-Experimental Prevention Research

Science.gov (United States)

Kuramoto, S. Janet; Stuart, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

Despite that randomization is the gold standard for estimating causal relationships, many questions in prevention science are left to be answered through non-experimental studies often because randomization is either infeasible or unethical. While methods such as propensity score matching can adjust for observed confounding, unobserved confounding is the Achilles heel of most non-experimental studies. This paper describes and illustrates seven sensitivity analysis techniques that assess the sensitivity of study results to an unobserved confounder. These methods were categorized into two groups to reflect differences in their conceptualization of sensitivity analysis, as well as their targets of interest. As a motivating example we examine the sensitivity of the association between maternal suicide and offspring’s risk for suicide attempt hospitalization. While inferences differed slightly depending on the type of sensitivity analysis conducted, overall the association between maternal suicide and offspring’s hospitalization for suicide attempt was found to be relatively robust to an unobserved confounder. The ease of implementation and the insight these analyses provide underscores sensitivity analysis techniques as an important tool for non-experimental studies. The implementation of sensitivity analysis can help increase confidence in results from non-experimental studies and better inform prevention researchers and policymakers regarding potential intervention targets. PMID:23408282

What can we learn from global sensitivity analysis of biochemical systems?

Science.gov (United States)

Kent, Edward; Neumann, Stefan; Kummer, Ursula; Mendes, Pedro

2013-01-01

Most biological models of intermediate size, and probably all large models, need to cope with the fact that many of their parameter values are unknown. In addition, it may not be possible to identify these values unambiguously on the basis of experimental data. This poses the question how reliable predictions made using such models are. Sensitivity analysis is commonly used to measure the impact of each model parameter on its variables. However, the results of such analyses can be dependent on an exact set of parameter values due to nonlinearity. To mitigate this problem, global sensitivity analysis techniques are used to calculate parameter sensitivities in a wider parameter space. We applied global sensitivity analysis to a selection of five signalling and metabolic models, several of which incorporate experimentally well-determined parameters. Assuming these models represent physiological reality, we explored how the results could change under increasing amounts of parameter uncertainty. Our results show that parameter sensitivities calculated with the physiological parameter values are not necessarily the most frequently observed under random sampling, even in a small interval around the physiological values. Often multimodal distributions were observed. Unsurprisingly, the range of possible sensitivity coefficient values increased with the level of parameter uncertainty, though the amount of parameter uncertainty at which the pattern of control was able to change differed among the models analysed. We suggest that this level of uncertainty can be used as a global measure of model robustness. Finally a comparison of different global sensitivity analysis techniques shows that, if high-throughput computing resources are available, then random sampling may actually be the most suitable technique.

UMTS Common Channel Sensitivity Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pratas, Nuno; Rodrigues, António; Santos, Frederico

2006-01-01

and as such it is necessary that both channels be available across the cell radius. This requirement makes the choice of the transmission parameters a fundamental one. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis regarding the transmission parameters of two UMTS common channels: RACH and FACH. Optimization of these channels...... is performed and values for the key transmission parameters in both common channels are obtained. On RACH these parameters are the message to preamble offset, the initial SIR target and the preamble power step while on FACH it is the transmission power offset....

Global sensitivity analysis using emulators, with an example analysis of large fire plumes based on FDS simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kelsey, Adrian [Health and Safety Laboratory, Harpur Hill, Buxton (United Kingdom)

2015-12-15

Uncertainty in model predictions of the behaviour of fires is an important issue in fire safety analysis in nuclear power plants. A global sensitivity analysis can help identify the input parameters or sub-models that have the most significant effect on model predictions. However, to perform a global sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo sampling might require thousands of simulations to be performed and therefore would not be practical for an analysis based on a complex fire code using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). An alternative approach is to perform a global sensitivity analysis using an emulator. Gaussian process emulators can be built using a limited number of simulations and once built a global sensitivity analysis can be performed on an emulator, rather than using simulations directly. Typically reliable emulators can be built using ten simulations for each parameter under consideration, therefore allowing a global sensitivity analysis to be performed, even for a complex computer code. In this paper we use an example of a large scale pool fire to demonstrate an emulator based approach to global sensitivity analysis. In that work an emulator based global sensitivity analysis was used to identify the key uncertain model inputs affecting the entrainment rates and flame heights in large Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) fire plumes. The pool fire simulations were performed using the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) software. Five model inputs were varied: the fire diameter, burn rate, radiative fraction, computational grid cell size and choice of turbulence model. The ranges used for these parameters in the analysis were determined from experiment and literature. The Gaussian process emulators used in the analysis were created using 127 FDS simulations. The emulators were checked for reliability, and then used to perform a global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. Large-scale ignited releases of LNG on water were performed by Sandia National

A comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a milk drying process

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ferrari, A.; Gutiérrez, S.; Sin, G.

2015-01-01

A simple steady state model of a milk drying process was built to help process understanding. It involves a spray chamber and also internal/external fluid beds. The model was subjected to a statistical analysis for quality assurance using sensitivity analysis (SA) of inputs/parameters, identifiab......A simple steady state model of a milk drying process was built to help process understanding. It involves a spray chamber and also internal/external fluid beds. The model was subjected to a statistical analysis for quality assurance using sensitivity analysis (SA) of inputs...... technique. SA results provide evidence towards over-parameterization in the model, and the chamber inlet dry bulb air temperature was the variable (input) with the highest sensitivity. IA results indicated that at most 4 parameters are identifiable: two from spray chamber and one from each fluid bed dryer...

A Preliminary Analysis of the Outcomes of Students Assisted by VET FEE-HELP: Summary

Science.gov (United States)

National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2015

2015-01-01

This summary highlights the key findings from the report "A preliminary analysis of the outcomes of students assisted by VET FEE-HELP". VET FEE-HELP is an income-contingent loan scheme that assists eligible students undertaking certain vocational education training (VET) courses with an approved provider by paying for all or part of…

Expression, purification, crystallization and preliminary X-ray analysis of Aeromonas hydrophilia metallo-β-lactamase

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sharma, Nandini, E-mail: nandini-sharma@merck.com; Toney, Jeffrey H.; Fitzgerald, Paula M. D.

2005-02-01

Crystallization and preliminary X-ray analysis of the CphA metallo-β-lactamase from A. hydrophilia are described. The crystals belonged to space group P2{sub 1}2{sub 1}2, with unit-cell parameters a = 40.75, b = 42.05, c = 128.88 Å, and diffract to 1.8 Å.

Sequential designs for sensitivity analysis of functional inputs in computer experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fruth, J.; Roustant, O.; Kuhnt, S.

2015-01-01

Computer experiments are nowadays commonly used to analyze industrial processes aiming at achieving a wanted outcome. Sensitivity analysis plays an important role in exploring the actual impact of adjustable parameters on the response variable. In this work we focus on sensitivity analysis of a scalar-valued output of a time-consuming computer code depending on scalar and functional input parameters. We investigate a sequential methodology, based on piecewise constant functions and sequential bifurcation, which is both economical and fully interpretable. The new approach is applied to a sheet metal forming problem in three sequential steps, resulting in new insights into the behavior of the forming process over time. - Highlights: • Sensitivity analysis method for functional and scalar inputs is presented. • We focus on the discovery of most influential parts of the functional domain. • We investigate economical sequential methodology based on piecewise constant functions. • Normalized sensitivity indices are introduced and investigated theoretically. • Successful application to sheet metal forming on two functional inputs

Deterministic sensitivity analysis of two-phase flow systems: forward and adjoint methods. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cacuci, D.G.

1984-07-01

This report presents a self-contained mathematical formalism for deterministic sensitivity analysis of two-phase flow systems, a detailed application to sensitivity analysis of the homogeneous equilibrium model of two-phase flow, and a representative application to sensitivity analysis of a model (simulating pump-trip-type accidents in BWRs) where a transition between single phase and two phase occurs. The rigor and generality of this sensitivity analysis formalism stem from the use of Gateaux (G-) differentials. This report highlights the major aspects of deterministic (forward and adjoint) sensitivity analysis, including derivation of the forward sensitivity equations, derivation of sensitivity expressions in terms of adjoint functions, explicit construction of the adjoint system satisfied by these adjoint functions, determination of the characteristics of this adjoint system, and demonstration that these characteristics are the same as those of the original quasilinear two-phase flow equations. This proves that whenever the original two-phase flow problem is solvable, the adjoint system is also solvable and, in principle, the same numerical methods can be used to solve both the original and adjoint equations

Preliminary hazard analysis using sequence tree method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang Huiwen; Shih Chunkuan; Hung Hungchih; Chen Minghuei; Yih Swu; Lin Jiinming

2007-01-01

A system level PHA using sequence tree method was developed to perform Safety Related digital I and C system SSA. The conventional PHA is a brainstorming session among experts on various portions of the system to identify hazards through discussions. However, this conventional PHA is not a systematic technique, the analysis results strongly depend on the experts' subjective opinions. The analysis quality cannot be appropriately controlled. Thereby, this research developed a system level sequence tree based PHA, which can clarify the relationship among the major digital I and C systems. Two major phases are included in this sequence tree based technique. The first phase uses a table to analyze each event in SAR Chapter 15 for a specific safety related I and C system, such as RPS. The second phase uses sequence tree to recognize what I and C systems are involved in the event, how the safety related systems work, and how the backup systems can be activated to mitigate the consequence if the primary safety systems fail. In the sequence tree, the defense-in-depth echelons, including Control echelon, Reactor trip echelon, ESFAS echelon, and Indication and display echelon, are arranged to construct the sequence tree structure. All the related I and C systems, include digital system and the analog back-up systems are allocated in their specific echelon. By this system centric sequence tree based analysis, not only preliminary hazard can be identified systematically, the vulnerability of the nuclear power plant can also be recognized. Therefore, an effective simplified D3 evaluation can be performed as well. (author)

Preliminary CFD analysis methodology for flow in a LFR fuel assembly

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Catana, A.; Ioan, M.; Serbanel, M.

2013-01-01

In this paper a preliminary Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis was performed in order to setup a methodology to be used for more complex coolant flow analysis inside ALFRED nuclear reactor fuel assembly. The core contains 171 separated fuel assembly, each consisting in a hexagonal array of 127 fuel rods. Three honey comb spacer grids are proposed along fuel rods with the aim to keep flow geometry intact during reactor operation. The main goal of this paper is to compute some hydraulic parameters: pressure, velocity, wall shear stress and turbulence parameters with and without spacer grids. In this analysis we consider an adiabatic case, so far no heat transfer is considered but we pave the road toward more complex thermo hydraulic analysis for ALFRED (LFR in general). The CAELINUX CFD distribution was used with its main components: Salome-Meca (for geometry and mesh) and Code-Saturne as mono-phase CFD solver. Paraview and Visist Postprocessors were used for data extraction and graphical displays. (authors)

Sensitivity analysis of periodic errors in heterodyne interferometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ganguly, Vasishta; Kim, Nam Ho; Kim, Hyo Soo; Schmitz, Tony

2011-01-01

Periodic errors in heterodyne displacement measuring interferometry occur due to frequency mixing in the interferometer. These nonlinearities are typically characterized as first- and second-order periodic errors which cause a cyclical (non-cumulative) variation in the reported displacement about the true value. This study implements an existing analytical periodic error model in order to identify sensitivities of the first- and second-order periodic errors to the input parameters, including rotational misalignments of the polarizing beam splitter and mixing polarizer, non-orthogonality of the two laser frequencies, ellipticity in the polarizations of the two laser beams, and different transmission coefficients in the polarizing beam splitter. A local sensitivity analysis is first conducted to examine the sensitivities of the periodic errors with respect to each input parameter about the nominal input values. Next, a variance-based approach is used to study the global sensitivities of the periodic errors by calculating the Sobol' sensitivity indices using Monte Carlo simulation. The effect of variation in the input uncertainty on the computed sensitivity indices is examined. It is seen that the first-order periodic error is highly sensitive to non-orthogonality of the two linearly polarized laser frequencies, while the second-order error is most sensitive to the rotational misalignment between the laser beams and the polarizing beam splitter. A particle swarm optimization technique is finally used to predict the possible setup imperfections based on experimentally generated values for periodic errors

Sensitivity analysis of periodic errors in heterodyne interferometry

Science.gov (United States)

Ganguly, Vasishta; Kim, Nam Ho; Kim, Hyo Soo; Schmitz, Tony

2011-03-01

Periodic errors in heterodyne displacement measuring interferometry occur due to frequency mixing in the interferometer. These nonlinearities are typically characterized as first- and second-order periodic errors which cause a cyclical (non-cumulative) variation in the reported displacement about the true value. This study implements an existing analytical periodic error model in order to identify sensitivities of the first- and second-order periodic errors to the input parameters, including rotational misalignments of the polarizing beam splitter and mixing polarizer, non-orthogonality of the two laser frequencies, ellipticity in the polarizations of the two laser beams, and different transmission coefficients in the polarizing beam splitter. A local sensitivity analysis is first conducted to examine the sensitivities of the periodic errors with respect to each input parameter about the nominal input values. Next, a variance-based approach is used to study the global sensitivities of the periodic errors by calculating the Sobol' sensitivity indices using Monte Carlo simulation. The effect of variation in the input uncertainty on the computed sensitivity indices is examined. It is seen that the first-order periodic error is highly sensitive to non-orthogonality of the two linearly polarized laser frequencies, while the second-order error is most sensitive to the rotational misalignment between the laser beams and the polarizing beam splitter. A particle swarm optimization technique is finally used to predict the possible setup imperfections based on experimentally generated values for periodic errors.

Integrated thermal and nonthermal treatment technology and subsystem cost sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvego, L.A.; Schafer, J.J.

1997-02-01

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Environmental Management Office of Science and Technology (EM-50) authorized studies on alternative systems for treating contact-handled DOE mixed low-level radioactive waste (MLLW). The on-going Integrated Thermal Treatment Systems' (ITTS) and the Integrated Nonthermal Treatment Systems' (INTS) studies satisfy this request. EM-50 further authorized supporting studies including this technology and subsystem cost sensitivity analysis. This analysis identifies areas where technology development could have the greatest impact on total life cycle system costs. These areas are determined by evaluating the sensitivity of system life cycle costs relative to changes in life cycle component or phase costs, subsystem costs, contingency allowance, facility capacity, operating life, and disposal costs. For all treatment systems, the most cost sensitive life cycle phase is the operations and maintenance phase and the most cost sensitive subsystem is the receiving and inspection/preparation subsystem. These conclusions were unchanged when the sensitivity analysis was repeated on a present value basis. Opportunity exists for technology development to reduce waste receiving and inspection/preparation costs by effectively minimizing labor costs, the major cost driver, within the maintenance and operations phase of the life cycle

Personalization of models with many model parameters: an efficient sensitivity analysis approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Donders, W P; Huberts, W; van de Vosse, F N; Delhaas, T

2015-10-01

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis are indispensable for patient-specific applications of models that enhance diagnosis or aid decision-making. Variance-based sensitivity analysis methods, which apportion each fraction of the output uncertainty (variance) to the effects of individual input parameters or their interactions, are considered the gold standard. The variance portions are called the Sobol sensitivity indices and can be estimated by a Monte Carlo (MC) approach (e.g., Saltelli's method [1]) or by employing a metamodel (e.g., the (generalized) polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE) [2, 3]). All these methods require a large number of model evaluations when estimating the Sobol sensitivity indices for models with many parameters [4]. To reduce the computational cost, we introduce a two-step approach. In the first step, a subset of important parameters is identified for each output of interest using the screening method of Morris [5]. In the second step, a quantitative variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed using gPCE. Efficient sampling strategies are introduced to minimize the number of model runs required to obtain the sensitivity indices for models considering multiple outputs. The approach is tested using a model that was developed for predicting post-operative flows after creation of a vascular access for renal failure patients. We compare the sensitivity indices obtained with the novel two-step approach with those obtained from a reference analysis that applies Saltelli's MC method. The two-step approach was found to yield accurate estimates of the sensitivity indices at two orders of magnitude lower computational cost. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Source apportionment and sensitivity analysis: two methodologies with two different purposes

Science.gov (United States)

Clappier, Alain; Belis, Claudio A.; Pernigotti, Denise; Thunis, Philippe

2017-11-01

This work reviews the existing methodologies for source apportionment and sensitivity analysis to identify key differences and stress their implicit limitations. The emphasis is laid on the differences between source impacts (sensitivity analysis) and contributions (source apportionment) obtained by using four different methodologies: brute-force top-down, brute-force bottom-up, tagged species and decoupled direct method (DDM). A simple theoretical example to compare these approaches is used highlighting differences and potential implications for policy. When the relationships between concentration and emissions are linear, impacts and contributions are equivalent concepts. In this case, source apportionment and sensitivity analysis may be used indifferently for both air quality planning purposes and quantifying source contributions. However, this study demonstrates that when the relationship between emissions and concentrations is nonlinear, sensitivity approaches are not suitable to retrieve source contributions and source apportionment methods are not appropriate to evaluate the impact of abatement strategies. A quantification of the potential nonlinearities should therefore be the first step prior to source apportionment or planning applications, to prevent any limitations in their use. When nonlinearity is mild, these limitations may, however, be acceptable in the context of the other uncertainties inherent to complex models. Moreover, when using sensitivity analysis for planning, it is important to note that, under nonlinear circumstances, the calculated impacts will only provide information for the exact conditions (e.g. emission reduction share) that are simulated.

EV range sensitivity analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ostafew, C. [Azure Dynamics Corp., Toronto, ON (Canada)

2010-07-01

This presentation included a sensitivity analysis of electric vehicle components on overall efficiency. The presentation provided an overview of drive cycles and discussed the major contributors to range in terms of rolling resistance; aerodynamic drag; motor efficiency; and vehicle mass. Drive cycles that were presented included: New York City Cycle (NYCC); urban dynamometer drive cycle; and US06. A summary of the findings were presented for each of the major contributors. Rolling resistance was found to have a balanced effect on each drive cycle and proportional to range. In terms of aerodynamic drive, there was a large effect on US06 range. A large effect was also found on NYCC range in terms of motor efficiency and vehicle mass. figs.

Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP (Medical Isotopes Producer)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mon, G. H.; O, S. Y.

2004-01-01

Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP (Medical Isotopes Producer), which is used liquid nuclear fuel to produce medical isotopes of Mo-99 and Sr-89, was performed. To do this, this study was estimated the IRR(Internal Rate of Return) and PBP(Pay-back Period) about optimistic and pessimistic cases for market penetration of Asia and U.S.A. isotope markets. And sensitivity analysis is also performed about capital cost and price of Mo-99 and Sr-89. According to the results, IRR was between 14.9% and 24.3%, and PBP was between 4.8 years and 7.8 years. These suggest that MIP has economic merits. MIP can produce other medical isotopes such as Sr-90, I-131, Xe-133, Cs-137. So, it is necessary to do cost-benefit analysis considering production of these other isotopes

Systemization of burnup sensitivity analysis code (2) (Contract research)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tatsumi, Masahiro; Hyoudou, Hideaki

2008-08-01

Towards the practical use of fast reactors, it is a very important subject to improve prediction accuracy for neutronic properties in LMFBR cores from the viewpoint of improvements on plant economic efficiency with rationally high performance cores and that on reliability and safety margins. A distinct improvement on accuracy in nuclear core design has been accomplished by the development of adjusted nuclear library using the cross-section adjustment method, in which the results of critical experiments of JUPITER and so on are reflected. In the design of large LMFBR cores, however, it is important to accurately estimate not only neutronic characteristics, for example, reaction rate distribution and control rod worth but also burnup characteristics, for example, burnup reactivity loss, breeding ratio and so on. For this purpose, it is desired to improve prediction accuracy of burnup characteristics using the data widely obtained in actual core such as the experimental fast reactor 'JOYO'. The analysis of burnup characteristic is needed to effectively use burnup characteristics data in the actual cores based on the cross-section adjustment method. So far, a burnup sensitivity analysis code, SAGEP-BURN, has been developed and confirmed its effectiveness. However, there is a problem that analysis sequence become inefficient because of a big burden to users due to complexity of the theory of burnup sensitivity and limitation of the system. It is also desired to rearrange the system for future revision since it is becoming difficult to implement new functions in the existing large system. It is not sufficient to unify each computational component for the following reasons: the computational sequence may be changed for each item being analyzed or for purpose such as interpretation of physical meaning. Therefore, it is needed to systemize the current code for burnup sensitivity analysis with component blocks of functionality that can be divided or constructed on occasion

[Sensitivity analysis of AnnAGNPS model's hydrology and water quality parameters based on the perturbation analysis method].

Science.gov (United States)

Xi, Qing; Li, Zhao-Fu; Luo, Chuan

2014-05-01

Sensitivity analysis of hydrology and water quality parameters has a great significance for integrated model's construction and application. Based on AnnAGNPS model's mechanism, terrain, hydrology and meteorology, field management, soil and other four major categories of 31 parameters were selected for the sensitivity analysis in Zhongtian river watershed which is a typical small watershed of hilly region in the Taihu Lake, and then used the perturbation method to evaluate the sensitivity of the parameters to the model's simulation results. The results showed that: in the 11 terrain parameters, LS was sensitive to all the model results, RMN, RS and RVC were generally sensitive and less sensitive to the output of sediment but insensitive to the remaining results. For hydrometeorological parameters, CN was more sensitive to runoff and sediment and relatively sensitive for the rest results. In field management, fertilizer and vegetation parameters, CCC, CRM and RR were less sensitive to sediment and particulate pollutants, the six fertilizer parameters (FR, FD, FID, FOD, FIP, FOP) were particularly sensitive for nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients. For soil parameters, K is quite sensitive to all the results except the runoff, the four parameters of the soil's nitrogen and phosphorus ratio (SONR, SINR, SOPR, SIPR) were less sensitive to the corresponding results. The simulation and verification results of runoff in Zhongtian watershed show a good accuracy with the deviation less than 10% during 2005- 2010. Research results have a direct reference value on AnnAGNPS model's parameter selection and calibration adjustment. The runoff simulation results of the study area also proved that the sensitivity analysis was practicable to the parameter's adjustment and showed the adaptability to the hydrology simulation in the Taihu Lake basin's hilly region and provide reference for the model's promotion in China.

Preliminary Evaluation of MapReduce for High-Performance Climate Data Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Duffy, Daniel Q.; Schnase, John L.; Thompson, John H.; Freeman, Shawn M.; Clune, Thomas L.

2012-01-01

MapReduce is an approach to high-performance analytics that may be useful to data intensive problems in climate research. It offers an analysis paradigm that uses clusters of computers and combines distributed storage of large data sets with parallel computation. We are particularly interested in the potential of MapReduce to speed up basic operations common to a wide range of analyses. In order to evaluate this potential, we are prototyping a series of canonical MapReduce operations over a test suite of observational and climate simulation datasets. Our initial focus has been on averaging operations over arbitrary spatial and temporal extents within Modern Era Retrospective- Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data. Preliminary results suggest this approach can improve efficiencies within data intensive analytic workflows.

Semianalytic Design Sensitivity Analysis of Nonlinear Structures With a Commercial Finite Element Package

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Tae Hee; Yoo, Jung Hun; Choi, Hyeong Cheol

2002-01-01

A finite element package is often used as a daily design tool for engineering designers in order to analyze and improve the design. The finite element analysis can provide the responses of a system for given design variables. Although finite element analysis can quite well provide the structural behaviors for given design variables, it cannot provide enough information to improve the design such as design sensitivity coefficients. Design sensitivity analysis is an essential step to predict the change in responses due to a change in design variables and to optimize a system with the aid of the gradient-based optimization techniques. To develop a numerical method of design sensitivity analysis, analytical derivatives that are based on analytical differentiation of the continuous or discrete finite element equations are effective but analytical derivatives are difficult because of the lack of internal information of the commercial finite element package such as shape functions. Therefore, design sensitivity analysis outside of the finite element package is necessary for practical application in an industrial setting. In this paper, the semi-analytic method for design sensitivity analysis is used for the development of the design sensitivity module outside of a commercial finite element package of ANSYS. The direct differentiation method is employed to compute the design derivatives of the response and the pseudo-load for design sensitivity analysis is effectively evaluated by using the design variation of the related internal nodal forces. Especially, we suggest an effective method for stress and nonlinear design sensitivity analyses that is independent of the commercial finite element package is also discussed. Numerical examples are illustrated to show the accuracy and efficiency of the developed method and to provide insights for implementation of the suggested method into other commercial finite element packages

SENSIT: a cross-section and design sensitivity and uncertainty analysis code. [In FORTRAN for CDC-7600, IBM 360

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gerstl, S.A.W.

1980-01-01

SENSIT computes the sensitivity and uncertainty of a calculated integral response (such as a dose rate) due to input cross sections and their uncertainties. Sensitivity profiles are computed for neutron and gamma-ray reaction cross sections of standard multigroup cross section sets and for secondary energy distributions (SEDs) of multigroup scattering matrices. In the design sensitivity mode, SENSIT computes changes in an integral response due to design changes and gives the appropriate sensitivity coefficients. Cross section uncertainty analyses are performed for three types of input data uncertainties: cross-section covariance matrices for pairs of multigroup reaction cross sections, spectral shape uncertainty parameters for secondary energy distributions (integral SED uncertainties), and covariance matrices for energy-dependent response functions. For all three types of data uncertainties SENSIT computes the resulting variance and estimated standard deviation in an integral response of interest, on the basis of generalized perturbation theory. SENSIT attempts to be more comprehensive than earlier sensitivity analysis codes, such as SWANLAKE.

Preliminary RAMI analysis of WCLL blanket and breeder systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arroyo, Jose Manuel; Brown, Richard; Harman, Jon; Rosa, Elena; Ibarra, Angel

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Preliminary RAMI model for WCLL has been developed. • Critical parts and parameters influencing WCLL availability have been focused. • Necessary developments of tools/models to represent system performance have been identified. - Abstract: DEMO will be a prototype fusion reactor designed to prove the capability to produce electrical power in a commercially acceptable way. One of the key factors in that endeavor is the achievement of certain level of plant availability. Therefore, RAMI (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability) will be a key element in the engineering development of DEMO. Some studies have been started so as to develop the tools and models to assess different design alternatives from RAMI point of view. The main objective of these studies is to be able to evaluate the influence of different parameters on DEMO availability and to focus the critical parts that should be further researched and improved in order to develop a high-availability oriented DEMO design. A preliminary RAMI analysis of the Water Cooled Lithium-Lead (WCLL) blanket and breeder concept for DEMO has been developed. The amounts of single elements that may fail (e.g. more than 180,000 C-shaped tubes) and the mean down time associated to failures inside the vacuum vessel (around 3 months) have been highlighted as the critical parameters influencing the system availability. On the other hand, the necessary developments of tools/models to better represent the system performance have been identified and proposed for future work.

Preliminary RAMI analysis of WCLL blanket and breeder systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arroyo, Jose Manuel, E-mail: josemanuel.arroyo@ciemat.es [Laboratorio Nacional de Fusión por Confinamiento Magnético – CIEMAT, Madrid (Spain); Brown, Richard [Culham Centre for Fusion Energy, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon (United Kingdom); Harman, Jon [EFDA Close Support Unit, Garching (Germany); Rosa, Elena; Ibarra, Angel [Laboratorio Nacional de Fusión por Confinamiento Magnético – CIEMAT, Madrid (Spain)

2015-10-15

Highlights: • Preliminary RAMI model for WCLL has been developed. • Critical parts and parameters influencing WCLL availability have been focused. • Necessary developments of tools/models to represent system performance have been identified. - Abstract: DEMO will be a prototype fusion reactor designed to prove the capability to produce electrical power in a commercially acceptable way. One of the key factors in that endeavor is the achievement of certain level of plant availability. Therefore, RAMI (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability) will be a key element in the engineering development of DEMO. Some studies have been started so as to develop the tools and models to assess different design alternatives from RAMI point of view. The main objective of these studies is to be able to evaluate the influence of different parameters on DEMO availability and to focus the critical parts that should be further researched and improved in order to develop a high-availability oriented DEMO design. A preliminary RAMI analysis of the Water Cooled Lithium-Lead (WCLL) blanket and breeder concept for DEMO has been developed. The amounts of single elements that may fail (e.g. more than 180,000 C-shaped tubes) and the mean down time associated to failures inside the vacuum vessel (around 3 months) have been highlighted as the critical parameters influencing the system availability. On the other hand, the necessary developments of tools/models to better represent the system performance have been identified and proposed for future work.

Deterministic methods for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in large-scale computer models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worley, B.A.; Oblow, E.M.; Pin, F.G.; Maerker, R.E.; Horwedel, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.; Lucius, J.L.

1987-01-01

The fields of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are dominated by statistical techniques when large-scale modeling codes are being analyzed. This paper reports on the development and availability of two systems, GRESS and ADGEN, that make use of computer calculus compilers to automate the implementation of deterministic sensitivity analysis capability into existing computer models. This automation removes the traditional limitation of deterministic sensitivity methods. The paper describes a deterministic uncertainty analysis method (DUA) that uses derivative information as a basis to propagate parameter probability distributions to obtain result probability distributions. The paper demonstrates the deterministic approach to sensitivity and uncertainty analysis as applied to a sample problem that models the flow of water through a borehole. The sample problem is used as a basis to compare the cumulative distribution function of the flow rate as calculated by the standard statistical methods and the DUA method. The DUA method gives a more accurate result based upon only two model executions compared to fifty executions in the statistical case

Automated differentiation of computer models for sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worley, B.A.

1990-01-01

Sensitivity analysis of reactor physics computer models is an established discipline after more than twenty years of active development of generalized perturbations theory based on direct and adjoint methods. Many reactor physics models have been enhanced to solve for sensitivities of model results to model data. The calculated sensitivities are usually normalized first derivatives although some codes are capable of solving for higher-order sensitivities. The purpose of this paper is to report on the development and application of the GRESS system for automating the implementation of the direct and adjoint techniques into existing FORTRAN computer codes. The GRESS system was developed at ORNL to eliminate the costly man-power intensive effort required to implement the direct and adjoint techniques into already-existing FORTRAN codes. GRESS has been successfully tested for a number of codes over a wide range of applications and presently operates on VAX machines under both VMS and UNIX operating systems

Automated differentiation of computer models for sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worley, B.A.

1991-01-01

Sensitivity analysis of reactor physics computer models is an established discipline after more than twenty years of active development of generalized perturbations theory based on direct and adjoint methods. Many reactor physics models have been enhanced to solve for sensitivities of model results to model data. The calculated sensitivities are usually normalized first derivatives, although some codes are capable of solving for higher-order sensitivities. The purpose of this paper is to report on the development and application of the GRESS system for automating the implementation of the direct and adjoint techniques into existing FORTRAN computer codes. The GRESS system was developed at ORNL to eliminate the costly man-power intensive effort required to implement the direct and adjoint techniques into already-existing FORTRAN codes. GRESS has been successfully tested for a number of codes over a wide range of applications and presently operates on VAX machines under both VMS and UNIX operating systems. (author). 9 refs, 1 tab

Sensitivity analysis in Gaussian Bayesian networks using a symbolic-numerical technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castillo, Enrique; Kjaerulff, Uffe

2003-01-01

The paper discusses the problem of sensitivity analysis in Gaussian Bayesian networks. The algebraic structure of the conditional means and variances, as rational functions involving linear and quadratic functions of the parameters, are used to simplify the sensitivity analysis. In particular the probabilities of conditional variables exceeding given values and related probabilities are analyzed. Two examples of application are used to illustrate all the concepts and methods

Deterministic Local Sensitivity Analysis of Augmented Systems - I: Theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cacuci, Dan G.; Ionescu-Bujor, Mihaela

2005-01-01

This work provides the theoretical foundation for the modular implementation of the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure (ASAP) for large-scale simulation systems. The implementation of the ASAP commences with a selected code module and then proceeds by augmenting the size of the adjoint sensitivity system, module by module, until the entire system is completed. Notably, the adjoint sensitivity system for the augmented system can often be solved by using the same numerical methods used for solving the original, nonaugmented adjoint system, particularly when the matrix representation of the adjoint operator for the augmented system can be inverted by partitioning

Determinants of Trade Credit: A Preliminary Analysis on Construction Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicoleta Barbuta-Misu

2016-07-01

Full Text Available This paper introduces a preliminary analysis of the correlations between trade credit and some selected measures of financial performance for a sample of 958 firms acting in the construction sector. The examined period covers 2004-2013. The sample derived from Amadeus database contains firms that have sold and bought on credit. Results showed that larger firms offered and used more credit than counterparties. Firms offered and used in same time credit, but not in same level. Firms with higher return on assets and profit margin used and offered less credit from suppliers, respectively to clients. Moreover, more liquid firms used less trade payables.

A preliminary benefit-cost study of a Sandia wind farm.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Griffin, Taylor; Loose, Verne W.

2011-03-01

In response to federal mandates and incentives for renewable energy, Sandia National Laboratories conducted a feasibility study of installing an on-site wind farm on Sandia National Laboratories and Kirtland Air Force Base property. This report describes this preliminary analysis of the costs and benefits of installing and operating a 15-turbine, 30-MW-capacity wind farm that delivers an estimated 16 percent of 2010 onsite demand. The report first describes market and non-market economic costs and benefits associated with operating a wind farm, and then uses a standard life-cycle costing and benefit-cost framework to estimate the costs and benefits of a wind farm. Based on these 'best-estimates' of costs and benefits and on factor, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, the analysis results suggest that the benefits of a Sandia wind farm are greater than its costs. The analysis techniques used herein are applicable to the economic assessment of most if not all forms of renewable energy.

A sensitivity analysis on seismic tomography data with respect to CO2 saturation of a CO2 geological sequestration field

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Chanho; Nguyen, Phung K. T.; Nam, Myung Jin; Kim, Jongwook

2013-04-01

Monitoring CO2 migration and storage in geological formations is important not only for the stability of geological sequestration of CO2 but also for efficient management of CO2 injection. Especially, geophysical methods can make in situ observation of CO2 to assess the potential leakage of CO2 and to improve reservoir description as well to monitor development of geologic discontinuity (i.e., fault, crack, joint, etc.). Geophysical monitoring can be based on wireline logging or surface surveys for well-scale monitoring (high resolution and nallow area of investigation) or basin-scale monitoring (low resolution and wide area of investigation). In the meantime, crosswell tomography can make reservoir-scale monitoring to bridge the resolution gap between well logs and surface measurements. This study focuses on reservoir-scale monitoring based on crosswell seismic tomography aiming describe details of reservoir structure and monitoring migration of reservoir fluid (water and CO2). For the monitoring, we first make a sensitivity analysis on crosswell seismic tomography data with respect to CO2 saturation. For the sensitivity analysis, Rock Physics Models (RPMs) are constructed by calculating the values of density and P and S-wave velocities of a virtual CO2 injection reservoir. Since the seismic velocity of the reservoir accordingly changes as CO2 saturation changes when the CO2 saturation is less than about 20%, while when the CO2 saturation is larger than 20%, the seismic velocity is insensitive to the change, sensitivity analysis is mainly made when CO2 saturation is less than 20%. For precise simulation of seismic tomography responses for constructed RPMs, we developed a time-domain 2D elastic modeling based on finite difference method with a staggered grid employing a boundary condition of a convolutional perfectly matched layer. We further make comparison between sensitivities of seismic tomography and surface measurements for RPMs to analysis resolution

First order sensitivity analysis of flexible multibody systems using absolute nodal coordinate formulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pi Ting; Zhang Yunqing; Chen Liping

2012-01-01

Design sensitivity analysis of flexible multibody systems is important in optimizing the performance of mechanical systems. The choice of coordinates to describe the motion of multibody systems has a great influence on the efficiency and accuracy of both the dynamic and sensitivity analysis. In the flexible multibody system dynamics, both the floating frame of reference formulation (FFRF) and absolute nodal coordinate formulation (ANCF) are frequently utilized to describe flexibility, however, only the former has been used in design sensitivity analysis. In this article, ANCF, which has been recently developed and focuses on modeling of beams and plates in large deformation problems, is extended into design sensitivity analysis of flexible multibody systems. The Motion equations of a constrained flexible multibody system are expressed as a set of index-3 differential algebraic equations (DAEs), in which the element elastic forces are defined using nonlinear strain-displacement relations. Both the direct differentiation method and adjoint variable method are performed to do sensitivity analysis and the related dynamic and sensitivity equations are integrated with HHT-I3 algorithm. In this paper, a new method to deduce system sensitivity equations is proposed. With this approach, the system sensitivity equations are constructed by assembling the element sensitivity equations with the help of invariant matrices, which results in the advantage that the complex symbolic differentiation of the dynamic equations is avoided when the flexible multibody system model is changed. Besides that, the dynamic and sensitivity equations formed with the proposed method can be efficiently integrated using HHT-I3 method, which makes the efficiency of the direct differentiation method comparable to that of the adjoint variable method when the number of design variables is not extremely large. All these improvements greatly enhance the application value of the direct differentiation

Parametric uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis in a model of the carotid bifurcation: Identification and ranking of most sensitive model parameters.

Science.gov (United States)

Gul, R; Bernhard, S

2015-11-01

In computational cardiovascular models, parameters are one of major sources of uncertainty, which make the models unreliable and less predictive. In order to achieve predictive models that allow the investigation of the cardiovascular diseases, sensitivity analysis (SA) can be used to quantify and reduce the uncertainty in outputs (pressure and flow) caused by input (electrical and structural) model parameters. In the current study, three variance based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) methods; Sobol, FAST and a sparse grid stochastic collocation technique based on the Smolyak algorithm were applied on a lumped parameter model of carotid bifurcation. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to identify and rank most sensitive parameters as well as to fix less sensitive parameters at their nominal values (factor fixing). In this context, network location and temporal dependent sensitivities were also discussed to identify optimal measurement locations in carotid bifurcation and optimal temporal regions for each parameter in the pressure and flow waves, respectively. Results show that, for both pressure and flow, flow resistance (R), diameter (d) and length of the vessel (l) are sensitive within right common carotid (RCC), right internal carotid (RIC) and right external carotid (REC) arteries, while compliance of the vessels (C) and blood inertia (L) are sensitive only at RCC. Moreover, Young's modulus (E) and wall thickness (h) exhibit less sensitivities on pressure and flow at all locations of carotid bifurcation. Results of network location and temporal variabilities revealed that most of sensitivity was found in common time regions i.e. early systole, peak systole and end systole. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nuclear data sensitivity/uncertainty analysis for XT-ADS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugawara, Takanori; Sarotto, Massimo; Stankovskiy, Alexey; Van den Eynde, Gert

2011-01-01

Highlights: → The sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed to comprehend the reliability of the XT-ADS neutronic design. → The uncertainties deduced from the covariance data for the XT-ADS criticality were 0.94%, 1.9% and 1.1% by the SCALE 44-group, TENDL-2009 and JENDL-3.3 data, respectively. → When the target accuracy of 0.3%Δk for the criticality was considered, the uncertainties did not satisfy it. → To achieve this accuracy, the uncertainties should be improved by experiments under an adequate condition. - Abstract: The XT-ADS, an accelerator-driven system for an experimental demonstration, has been investigated in the framework of IP EUROTRANS FP6 project. In this study, the sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed to comprehend the reliability of the XT-ADS neutronic design. For the sensitivity analysis, it was found that the sensitivity coefficients were significantly different by changing the geometry models and calculation codes. For the uncertainty analysis, it was confirmed that the uncertainties deduced from the covariance data varied significantly by changing them. The uncertainties deduced from the covariance data for the XT-ADS criticality were 0.94%, 1.9% and 1.1% by the SCALE 44-group, TENDL-2009 and JENDL-3.3 data, respectively. When the target accuracy of 0.3%Δk for the criticality was considered, the uncertainties did not satisfy it. To achieve this accuracy, the uncertainties should be improved by experiments under an adequate condition.

Elastic and inelastic methods of piping systems analysis: a preliminary review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reich, M.; Esztergar, E.P.; Spence, J.; Boyle, J.; Chang, T.Y.

1975-02-01

A preliminary review of the methods used for elastic and inelastic piping system analysis is presented. The following principal conclusions are reached: techniques for the analysis of complex piping systems operating in the high temperature creep regime should be further developed; accurate analysis of a complete pipework system in creep using the ''complete shell finite element methods'' is not feasible at the present, and the ''reduced shell finite element method'' still requires excessive computer time and also requires further investigation regarding the compatibility problems associated with the pipe bend element, particularly when applied to cases involving general loading conditions; and with the current size of proposed high temperature systems requiring the evaluation of long-term operating life (30 to 40 years), it is important to adopt a simplified analysis method. A design procedure for a simplified analysis method based on currently available techniques applied in a three-stage approach is outlined. The work required for implementation of these procedures together with desirable future developments are also briefly discussed. Other proposed simplified approximations also are reviewed in the text. 101 references. (U.S.)

Cross-section sensitivity analyses for a Tokamak Experimental Power Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simmons, E.L.; Gerstl, S.A.W.; Dudziak, D.J.

1977-09-01

The objectives of this report were (1) to determine the sensitivity of neutronic responses in the preliminary design of the Tokamak Experimental Power Reactor by Argonne National Laboratory, and (2) to develop the use of a neutron-gamma coupled cross-section set in the calculation of cross-section sensitivity analysis. Response functions such as neutron plus gamma kerma, Mylar dose, copper transmutation, copper dpa, and activation of the toroidal field coil dewar were investigated. Calculations revealed that the responses were most sensitive to the high-energy group cross sections of iron in the innermost regions containing stainless steel. For example, both the neutron heating of the toroidal field coil and the activation of the toroidal field coil dewar show an integral sensitivity of about -5 with respect to the iron total cross sections. Major contributors are the scattering cross sections of iron, with -2.7 and -4.4 for neutron heating and activation, respectively. The effects of changes in gamma cross sections were generally an order of 10 lower

Preliminary radar systems analysis for Venus orbiter missions

Science.gov (United States)

Brandenburg, R. K.; Spadoni, D. J.

1971-01-01

A short, preliminary analysis is presented of the problems involved in mapping the surface of Venus with radar from an orbiting spacecraft. Two types of radar, the noncoherent sidelooking and the focused synthetic aperture systems, are sized to fulfill two assumed levels of Venus exploration. The two exploration levels, regional and local, assumed for this study are based on previous Astro Sciences work (Klopp 1969). The regional level is defined as 1 to 3 kilometer spatial and 0.5 to 1 km vertical resolution of 100 percent 0 of the planet's surface. The local level is defined as 100 to 200 meter spatial and 50-10 m vertical resolution of about 100 percent of the surfAce (based on the regional survey). A 10cm operating frequency was chosen for both radar systems in order to minimize the antenna size and maximize the apparent radar cross section of the surface.

A survey of cross-section sensitivity analysis as applied to radiation shielding

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldstein, H.

1977-01-01

Cross section sensitivity studies revolve around finding the change in the value of an integral quantity, e.g. transmitted dose, for a given change in one of the cross sections. A review is given of the principal methodologies for obtaining the sensitivity profiles-principally direct calculations with altered cross sections, and linear perturbation theory. Some of the varied applications of cross section sensitivity analysis are described, including the practice, of questionable value, of adjusting input cross section data sets so as to provide agreement with integral experiments. Finally, a plea is made for using cross section sensitivity analysis as a powerful tool for analysing the transport mechanisms of particles in radiation shields and for constructing models of how cross section phenomena affect the transport. Cross section sensitivities in the shielding area have proved to be highly problem-dependent. Without the understanding afforded by such models, it is impossible to extrapolate the conclusions of cross section sensitivity analysis beyond the narrow limits of the specific situations examined in detail. Some of the elements that might be of use in developing the qualitative models are presented. (orig.) [de

Prediction of the contact sensitizing potential of chemicals using analysis of gene expression changes in human THP-1 monocytes.

Science.gov (United States)

Arkusz, Joanna; Stępnik, Maciej; Sobala, Wojciech; Dastych, Jarosław

2010-11-10

The aim of this study was to find differentially regulated genes in THP-1 monocytic cells exposed to sensitizers and nonsensitizers and to investigate if such genes could be reliable markers for an in vitro predictive method for the identification of skin sensitizing chemicals. Changes in expression of 35 genes in the THP-1 cell line following treatment with chemicals of different sensitizing potential (from nonsensitizers to extreme sensitizers) were assessed using real-time PCR. Verification of 13 candidate genes by testing a large number of chemicals (an additional 22 sensitizers and 8 nonsensitizers) revealed that prediction of contact sensitization potential was possible based on evaluation of changes in three genes: IL8, HMOX1 and PAIMP1. In total, changes in expression of these genes allowed correct detection of sensitization potential of 21 out of 27 (78%) test sensitizers. The gene expression levels inside potency groups varied and did not allow estimation of sensitization potency of test chemicals. Results of this study indicate that evaluation of changes in expression of proposed biomarkers in THP-1 cells could be a valuable model for preliminary screening of chemicals to discriminate an appreciable majority of sensitizers from nonsensitizers. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław

2018-01-01

In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.

Analytical sensitivity analysis of geometric errors in a three axis machine tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Sung Ryung; Yang, Seung Han

2012-01-01

In this paper, an analytical method is used to perform a sensitivity analysis of geometric errors in a three axis machine tool. First, an error synthesis model is constructed for evaluating the position volumetric error due to the geometric errors, and then an output variable is defined, such as the magnitude of the position volumetric error. Next, the global sensitivity analysis is executed using an analytical method. Finally, the sensitivity indices are calculated using the quantitative values of the geometric errors

Automated sensitivity analysis: New tools for modeling complex dynamic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pin, F.G.

1987-01-01

Sensitivity analysis is an established methodology used by researchers in almost every field to gain essential insight in design and modeling studies and in performance assessments of complex systems. Conventional sensitivity analysis methodologies, however, have not enjoyed the widespread use they deserve considering the wealth of information they can provide, partly because of their prohibitive cost or the large initial analytical investment they require. Automated systems have recently been developed at ORNL to eliminate these drawbacks. Compilers such as GRESS and EXAP now allow automatic and cost effective calculation of sensitivities in FORTRAN computer codes. In this paper, these and other related tools are described and their impact and applicability in the general areas of modeling, performance assessment and decision making for radioactive waste isolation problems are discussed

Preliminary analysis of accident in SST-1 current feeder system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roy, Swati; Kanabar, Deven; Garg, Atul; Singh, Amit; Tanna, Vipul; Prasad, Upendra; Srinivasan, R.

2017-01-01

Steady-state Tokamak-1 (SST-1) has 16 superconducting Toroidal field (TF) and 9 superconducting poloidal field (PF) coils rated for 10kA DC. All the TF are connected in series and are operated in DC condition whereas PF coils are individually operated in pulse mode during SST-1 campaigns. SST-1 current feeder system (CFS) houses 9 pairs of PF current leads and 1 pair of TF current leads. During past SST-1 campaign, there were arcing incidents within SST-1 CFS chamber which caused significant damage to PF superconducting current leads as well as its Helium cooling lines of the current leads. This paper brings out the preliminary analysis of the mentioned arcing incident, possible reasons and its investigation thereby laying out the sequence of events. From this analysis and observations, various measures to avoid such arcing incidents have also been proposed. (author)

Automatic differentiation for design sensitivity analysis of structural systems using multiple processors

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Duc T.; Storaasli, Olaf O.; Qin, Jiangning; Qamar, Ramzi

1994-01-01

An automatic differentiation tool (ADIFOR) is incorporated into a finite element based structural analysis program for shape and non-shape design sensitivity analysis of structural systems. The entire analysis and sensitivity procedures are parallelized and vectorized for high performance computation. Small scale examples to verify the accuracy of the proposed program and a medium scale example to demonstrate the parallel vector performance on multiple CRAY C90 processors are included.

Goal-oriented sensitivity analysis for lattice kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A.

2014-01-01

In this paper we propose a new class of coupling methods for the sensitivity analysis of high dimensional stochastic systems and in particular for lattice Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC). Sensitivity analysis for stochastic systems is typically based on approximating continuous derivatives with respect to model parameters by the mean value of samples from a finite difference scheme. Instead of using independent samples the proposed algorithm reduces the variance of the estimator by developing a strongly correlated-“coupled”- stochastic process for both the perturbed and unperturbed stochastic processes, defined in a common state space. The novelty of our construction is that the new coupled process depends on the targeted observables, e.g., coverage, Hamiltonian, spatial correlations, surface roughness, etc., hence we refer to the proposed method as goal-oriented sensitivity analysis. In particular, the rates of the coupled Continuous Time Markov Chain are obtained as solutions to a goal-oriented optimization problem, depending on the observable of interest, by considering the minimization functional of the corresponding variance. We show that this functional can be used as a diagnostic tool for the design and evaluation of different classes of couplings. Furthermore, the resulting KMC sensitivity algorithm has an easy implementation that is based on the Bortz–Kalos–Lebowitz algorithm's philosophy, where events are divided in classes depending on level sets of the observable of interest. Finally, we demonstrate in several examples including adsorption, desorption, and diffusion Kinetic Monte Carlo that for the same confidence interval and observable, the proposed goal-oriented algorithm can be two orders of magnitude faster than existing coupling algorithms for spatial KMC such as the Common Random Number approach. We also provide a complete implementation of the proposed sensitivity analysis algorithms, including various spatial KMC examples, in a supplementary

Goal-oriented sensitivity analysis for lattice kinetic Monte Carlo simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A

2014-03-28

In this paper we propose a new class of coupling methods for the sensitivity analysis of high dimensional stochastic systems and in particular for lattice Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC). Sensitivity analysis for stochastic systems is typically based on approximating continuous derivatives with respect to model parameters by the mean value of samples from a finite difference scheme. Instead of using independent samples the proposed algorithm reduces the variance of the estimator by developing a strongly correlated-"coupled"- stochastic process for both the perturbed and unperturbed stochastic processes, defined in a common state space. The novelty of our construction is that the new coupled process depends on the targeted observables, e.g., coverage, Hamiltonian, spatial correlations, surface roughness, etc., hence we refer to the proposed method as goal-oriented sensitivity analysis. In particular, the rates of the coupled Continuous Time Markov Chain are obtained as solutions to a goal-oriented optimization problem, depending on the observable of interest, by considering the minimization functional of the corresponding variance. We show that this functional can be used as a diagnostic tool for the design and evaluation of different classes of couplings. Furthermore, the resulting KMC sensitivity algorithm has an easy implementation that is based on the Bortz-Kalos-Lebowitz algorithm's philosophy, where events are divided in classes depending on level sets of the observable of interest. Finally, we demonstrate in several examples including adsorption, desorption, and diffusion Kinetic Monte Carlo that for the same confidence interval and observable, the proposed goal-oriented algorithm can be two orders of magnitude faster than existing coupling algorithms for spatial KMC such as the Common Random Number approach. We also provide a complete implementation of the proposed sensitivity analysis algorithms, including various spatial KMC examples, in a supplementary MATLAB

Global sensitivity analysis applied to drying models for one or a population of granules

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortier, Severine Therese F. C.; Gernaey, Krist; Thomas, De Beer

2014-01-01

The development of mechanistic models for pharmaceutical processes is of increasing importance due to a noticeable shift toward continuous production in the industry. Sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool during the model building process. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA), exploring sensitiv......The development of mechanistic models for pharmaceutical processes is of increasing importance due to a noticeable shift toward continuous production in the industry. Sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool during the model building process. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA), exploring...... sensitivity in a broad parameter space, is performed to detect the most sensitive factors in two models, that is, one for drying of a single granule and one for the drying of a population of granules [using population balance model (PBM)], which was extended by including the gas velocity as extra input...... compared to our earlier work. beta(2) was found to be the most important factor for the single particle model which is useful information when performing model calibration. For the PBM-model, the granule radius and gas temperature were found to be most sensitive. The former indicates that granulator...

Preliminary identification of unicellular algal genus by using combined confocal resonance Raman spectroscopy with PCA and DPLS analysis

Science.gov (United States)

He, Shixuan; Xie, Wanyi; Zhang, Ping; Fang, Shaoxi; Li, Zhe; Tang, Peng; Gao, Xia; Guo, Jinsong; Tlili, Chaker; Wang, Deqiang

2018-02-01

The analysis of algae and dominant alga plays important roles in ecological and environmental fields since it can be used to forecast water bloom and control its potential deleterious effects. Herein, we combine in vivo confocal resonance Raman spectroscopy with multivariate analysis methods to preliminary identify the three algal genera in water blooms at unicellular scale. Statistical analysis of characteristic Raman peaks demonstrates that certain shifts and different normalized intensities, resulting from composition of different carotenoids, exist in Raman spectra of three algal cells. Principal component analysis (PCA) scores and corresponding loading weights show some differences from Raman spectral characteristics which are caused by vibrations of carotenoids in unicellular algae. Then, discriminant partial least squares (DPLS) classification method is used to verify the effectiveness of algal identification with confocal resonance Raman spectroscopy. Our results show that confocal resonance Raman spectroscopy combined with PCA and DPLS could handle the preliminary identification of dominant alga for forecasting and controlling of water blooms.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in a Probabilistic Safety Analysis level-1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nunez Mc Leod, Jorge E.; Rivera, Selva S.

1996-01-01

A methodology for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, applicable to a Probabilistic Safety Assessment Level I has been presented. The work contents are: correct association of distributions to parameters, importance and qualification of expert opinions, generations of samples according to sample sizes, and study of the relationships among system variables and systems response. A series of statistical-mathematical techniques are recommended along the development of the analysis methodology, as well as different graphical visualization for the control of the study. (author)

Preliminary structural investigations of the Eut-L shell protein of the ethanolamine ammonia-lyase metabolosome of Escherichia coli

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nikolakakis, Kiel; Ohtaki, Akashi; Newton, Keith; Chworos, Arkadiusz; Sagermann, Martin

2009-01-01

Preliminary X-ray analysis of crystals of the bacterial microcompartment shell protein Eut-L from Escherichia coli is reported. The ethanolamine ammonia-lyase microcompartment is composed of five different shell proteins that have been proposed to assemble into symmetrically shaped polyhedral particles of varying sizes. Here, preliminary X-ray analysis of crystals of the bacterial microcompartment shell protein Eut-L from Escherichia coli is reported. Cloning, overexpression and purification resulted in highly pure protein that crystallized readily under many different conditions. In all cases the protein forms thin hexagonal plate-shaped crystals belonging to space group P3 that are of unusually high stability against different solvent conditions. The crystals diffracted to a resolution of 2.0 Å using synchrotron radiation but proved to be radiation-sensitive. Preparations of heavy-atom-derivatized crystals for use in determining the three-dimensional structure are under way

Comparison of global sensitivity analysis techniques and importance measures in PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borgonovo, E.; Apostolakis, G.E.; Tarantola, S.; Saltelli, A.

2003-01-01

This paper discusses application and results of global sensitivity analysis techniques to probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) models, and their comparison to importance measures. This comparison allows one to understand whether PSA elements that are important to the risk, as revealed by importance measures, are also important contributors to the model uncertainty, as revealed by global sensitivity analysis. We show that, due to epistemic dependence, uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis of PSA models must be performed at the parameter level. A difficulty arises, since standard codes produce the calculations at the basic event level. We discuss both the indirect comparison through importance measures computed for basic events, and the direct comparison performed using the differential importance measure and the Fussell-Vesely importance at the parameter level. Results are discussed for the large LLOCA sequence of the advanced test reactor PSA

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of optimised preventive maintenance strategies for deteriorating infrastructure assets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daneshkhah, A.; Stocks, N.G.; Jeffrey, P.

2017-01-01

Efficient life-cycle management of civil infrastructure systems under continuous deterioration can be improved by studying the sensitivity of optimised preventive maintenance decisions with respect to changes in model parameters. Sensitivity analysis in maintenance optimisation problems is important because if the calculation of the cost of preventive maintenance strategies is not sufficiently robust, the use of the maintenance model can generate optimised maintenances strategies that are not cost-effective. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis methods (particularly variance based ones), only partially respond to this issue and their use is limited to evaluating the extent to which uncertainty in each input contributes to the overall output's variance. These methods do not take account of the decision-making problem in a straightforward manner. To address this issue, we use the concept of the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) to perform decision-informed sensitivity analysis: to identify the key parameters of the problem and quantify the value of learning about certain aspects of the life-cycle management of civil infrastructure system. This approach allows us to quantify the benefits of the maintenance strategies in terms of expected costs and in the light of accumulated information about the model parameters and aspects of the system, such as the ageing process. We use a Gamma process model to represent the uncertainty associated with asset deterioration, illustrating the use of EVPI to perform sensitivity analysis on the optimisation problem for age-based and condition-based preventive maintenance strategies. The evaluation of EVPI indices is computationally demanding and Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques would not be helpful. To overcome this computational difficulty, we approximate the EVPI indices using Gaussian process emulators. The implications of the worked numerical examples discussed in the context of analytical efficiency and organisational

Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lamboni, Matieyendou; Monod, Herve; Makowski, David

2011-01-01

Many dynamic models are used for risk assessment and decision support in ecology and crop science. Such models generate time-dependent model predictions, with time either discretised or continuous. Their global sensitivity analysis is usually applied separately on each time output, but Campbell et al. (2006 ) advocated global sensitivity analyses on the expansion of the dynamics in a well-chosen functional basis. This paper focuses on the particular case when principal components analysis is combined with analysis of variance. In addition to the indices associated with the principal components, generalised sensitivity indices are proposed to synthesize the influence of each parameter on the whole time series output. Index definitions are given when the uncertainty on the input factors is either discrete or continuous and when the dynamic model is either discrete or functional. A general estimation algorithm is proposed, based on classical methods of global sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a dynamic wheat crop model with 13 uncertain parameters. Three methods of global sensitivity analysis are compared: the Sobol'-Saltelli method, the extended FAST method, and the fractional factorial design of resolution 6.

Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lamboni, Matieyendou [INRA, Unite MIA (UR341), F78352 Jouy en Josas Cedex (France); Monod, Herve, E-mail: herve.monod@jouy.inra.f [INRA, Unite MIA (UR341), F78352 Jouy en Josas Cedex (France); Makowski, David [INRA, UMR Agronomie INRA/AgroParisTech (UMR 211), BP 01, F78850 Thiverval-Grignon (France)

2011-04-15

Many dynamic models are used for risk assessment and decision support in ecology and crop science. Such models generate time-dependent model predictions, with time either discretised or continuous. Their global sensitivity analysis is usually applied separately on each time output, but Campbell et al. (2006) advocated global sensitivity analyses on the expansion of the dynamics in a well-chosen functional basis. This paper focuses on the particular case when principal components analysis is combined with analysis of variance. In addition to the indices associated with the principal components, generalised sensitivity indices are proposed to synthesize the influence of each parameter on the whole time series output. Index definitions are given when the uncertainty on the input factors is either discrete or continuous and when the dynamic model is either discrete or functional. A general estimation algorithm is proposed, based on classical methods of global sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a dynamic wheat crop model with 13 uncertain parameters. Three methods of global sensitivity analysis are compared: the Sobol'-Saltelli method, the extended FAST method, and the fractional factorial design of resolution 6.

Application of Sensitivity Analysis in Design of Sustainable Buildings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heiselberg, Per; Brohus, Henrik; Rasmussen, Henrik

2009-01-01

satisfies the design objectives and criteria. In the design of sustainable buildings, it is beneficial to identify the most important design parameters in order to more efficiently develop alternative design solutions or reach optimized design solutions. Sensitivity analyses make it possible to identify...... possible to influence the most important design parameters. A methodology of sensitivity analysis is presented and an application example is given for design of an office building in Denmark....

Sensitivity analysis of network DEA illustrated in branch banking

OpenAIRE

N. Avkiran

2010-01-01

Users of data envelopment analysis (DEA) often presume efficiency estimates to be robust. While traditional DEA has been exposed to various sensitivity studies, network DEA (NDEA) has so far escaped similar scrutiny. Thus, there is a need to investigate the sensitivity of NDEA, further compounded by the recent attention it has been receiving in literature. NDEA captures the underlying performance information found in a firm?s interacting divisions or sub-processes that would otherwise remain ...

Purification, crystallization and preliminary crystallographic analysis of human cystathionine β-synthase

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oyenarte, Iker; Majtan, Tomas; Ereño, June; Corral-Rodríguez, María Angeles; Kraus, Jan P.; Martínez-Cruz, Luis Alfonso

2012-01-01

This article describes the crystallization and preliminary crystallographic analysis of a protein construct (hCBS 516–525 ) that contains the full-length cystathionine β-synthase from Homo sapiens (hCBS) and just lacks amino-acid residues 516–525. Human cystathionine β-synthase (CBS) is a pyridoxal-5′-phosphate-dependent hemeprotein, whose catalytic activity is regulated by S-adenosylmethionine. CBS catalyzes the β-replacement reaction of homocysteine (Hcy) with serine to yield cystathionine. CBS is a key regulator of plasma levels of the thrombogenic Hcy and deficiency in CBS is the single most common cause of homocystinuria, an inherited metabolic disorder of sulfur amino acids. The properties of CBS enzymes, such as domain organization, oligomerization degree or regulatory mechanisms, are not conserved across the eukaryotes. The current body of knowledge is insufficient to understand these differences and their impact on CBS function and physiology. To overcome this deficiency, we have addressed the crystallization and preliminary crystallographic analysis of a protein construct (hCBS 516–525 ) that contains the full-length CBS from Homo sapiens (hCBS) and just lacks amino-acid residues 516–525, which are located in a disordered loop. The human enzyme yielded crystals belonging to space group I222, with unit-cell parameters a = 124.98, b = 136.33, c = 169.83 Å and diffracting X-rays to a resolution of 3.0 Å. The crystal structure appears to contain two molecules in the asymmetric unit which presumably correspond to a dimeric form of the enzyme

Sensitivity analysis of simulated SOA loadings using a variance-based statistical approach: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF SOA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shrivastava, Manish [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zhao, Chun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Easter, Richard C. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Qian, Yun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zelenyuk, Alla [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Fast, Jerome D. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zhang, Qi [Department of Environmental Toxicology, University of California Davis, California USA; Guenther, Alex [Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA

2016-04-08

We investigate the sensitivity of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) loadings simulated by a regional chemical transport model to 7 selected tunable model parameters: 4 involving emissions of anthropogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds, anthropogenic semi-volatile and intermediate volatility organics (SIVOCs), and NOx, 2 involving dry deposition of SOA precursor gases, and one involving particle-phase transformation of SOA to low volatility. We adopt a quasi-Monte Carlo sampling approach to effectively sample the high-dimensional parameter space, and perform a 250 member ensemble of simulations using a regional model, accounting for some of the latest advances in SOA treatments based on our recent work. We then conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis using the generalized linear model method to study the responses of simulated SOA loadings to the tunable parameters. Analysis of SOA variance from all 250 simulations shows that the volatility transformation parameter, which controls whether particle-phase transformation of SOA from semi-volatile SOA to non-volatile is on or off, is the dominant contributor to variance of simulated surface-level daytime SOA (65% domain average contribution). We also split the simulations into 2 subsets of 125 each, depending on whether the volatility transformation is turned on/off. For each subset, the SOA variances are dominated by the parameters involving biogenic VOC and anthropogenic SIVOC emissions. Furthermore, biogenic VOC emissions have a larger contribution to SOA variance when the SOA transformation to non-volatile is on, while anthropogenic SIVOC emissions have a larger contribution when the transformation is off. NOx contributes less than 4.3% to SOA variance, and this low contribution is mainly attributed to dominance of intermediate to high NOx conditions throughout the simulated domain. The two parameters related to dry deposition of SOA precursor gases also have very low contributions to SOA variance

Sensitivity Analysis of Deviation Source for Fast Assembly Precision Optimization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianjun Tang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Assembly precision optimization of complex product has a huge benefit in improving the quality of our products. Due to the impact of a variety of deviation source coupling phenomena, the goal of assembly precision optimization is difficult to be confirmed accurately. In order to achieve optimization of assembly precision accurately and rapidly, sensitivity analysis of deviation source is proposed. First, deviation source sensitivity is defined as the ratio of assembly dimension variation and deviation source dimension variation. Second, according to assembly constraint relations, assembly sequences and locating, deviation transmission paths are established by locating the joints between the adjacent parts, and establishing each part’s datum reference frame. Third, assembly multidimensional vector loops are created using deviation transmission paths, and the corresponding scalar equations of each dimension are established. Then, assembly deviation source sensitivity is calculated by using a first-order Taylor expansion and matrix transformation method. Finally, taking assembly precision optimization of wing flap rocker as an example, the effectiveness and efficiency of the deviation source sensitivity analysis method are verified.

Global sensitivity analysis using a Gaussian Radial Basis Function metamodel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Zeping; Wang, Donghui; Okolo N, Patrick; Hu, Fan; Zhang, Weihua

2016-01-01

Sensitivity analysis plays an important role in exploring the actual impact of adjustable parameters on response variables. Amongst the wide range of documented studies on sensitivity measures and analysis, Sobol' indices have received greater portion of attention due to the fact that they can provide accurate information for most models. In this paper, a novel analytical expression to compute the Sobol' indices is derived by introducing a method which uses the Gaussian Radial Basis Function to build metamodels of computationally expensive computer codes. Performance of the proposed method is validated against various analytical functions and also a structural simulation scenario. Results demonstrate that the proposed method is an efficient approach, requiring a computational cost of one to two orders of magnitude less when compared to the traditional Quasi Monte Carlo-based evaluation of Sobol' indices. - Highlights: • RBF based sensitivity analysis method is proposed. • Sobol' decomposition of Gaussian RBF metamodel is obtained. • Sobol' indices of Gaussian RBF metamodel are derived based on the decomposition. • The efficiency of proposed method is validated by some numerical examples.

Preliminary analysis of biomass potentially useful for producing biodiesel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cabrera Cifuentes, Gerardo; Burbano Jaramillo, Juan Carlos; Garcia Melo, Jose Isidro

2011-01-01

Given that biodiesel is emerging as a viable solution for some energy and environmental problems, research on raw materials appropriate for its production is a matter of growing interest. In this study we present the results of research devoted to preliminary analysis on several vegetable (biomass) species potentially useful for producing biodiesel. The bioprospection zone is a region on the Colombian Pacific coast. The candidate species collected underwent different standardized ASTM tests in order for us to define properties that facilitate their evaluation. Some of the species underwent a transesterification process. Comparisons between the thermo-physical properties of the biofuels obtained and the properties of commercial diesel were carried out. Also, performance tests for these biofuels were conducted in compression ignition engines, particularly evaluating efficiency, fuel consumption, and potency at different RPMs.

Sensitivity Analysis of Structures by Virtual Distortion Method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gierlinski, J.T.; Holnicki-Szulc, J.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1991-01-01

are used in structural optimization, see Haftka [4]. The recently developed Virtual Distortion Method (VDM) is a numerical technique which offers an efficient approach to calculation of the sensitivity derivatives. This method has been orginally applied to structural remodelling and collapse analysis, see...

Adjoint sensitivity analysis of plasmonic structures using the FDTD method.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yu; Ahmed, Osman S; Bakr, Mohamed H

2014-05-15

We present an adjoint variable method for estimating the sensitivities of arbitrary responses with respect to the parameters of dispersive discontinuities in nanoplasmonic devices. Our theory is formulated in terms of the electric field components at the vicinity of perturbed discontinuities. The adjoint sensitivities are computed using at most one extra finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) simulation regardless of the number of parameters. Our approach is illustrated through the sensitivity analysis of an add-drop coupler consisting of a square ring resonator between two parallel waveguides. The computed adjoint sensitivities of the scattering parameters are compared with those obtained using the accurate but computationally expensive central finite difference approach.

Application of Monte Carlo filtering method in regional sensitivity analysis of AASHTOWare Pavement ME design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhong Wu

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Since AASHTO released the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG for public review in 2004, many highway research agencies have performed sensitivity analyses using the prototype MEPDG design software. The information provided by the sensitivity analysis is essential for design engineers to better understand the MEPDG design models and to identify important input parameters for pavement design. In literature, different studies have been carried out based on either local or global sensitivity analysis methods, and sensitivity indices have been proposed for ranking the importance of the input parameters. In this paper, a regional sensitivity analysis method, Monte Carlo filtering (MCF, is presented. The MCF method maintains many advantages of the global sensitivity analysis, while focusing on the regional sensitivity of the MEPDG model near the design criteria rather than the entire problem domain. It is shown that the information obtained from the MCF method is more helpful and accurate in guiding design engineers in pavement design practices. To demonstrate the proposed regional sensitivity method, a typical three-layer flexible pavement structure was analyzed at input level 3. A detailed procedure to generate Monte Carlo runs using the AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design software was provided. The results in the example show that the sensitivity ranking of the input parameters in this study reasonably matches with that in a previous study under a global sensitivity analysis. Based on the analysis results, the strengths, practical issues, and applications of the MCF method were further discussed.

Preliminary Design and Analysis of an In-plane PRSEUS Joint

Science.gov (United States)

Lovejoy, Andrew E.; Poplawski, Steven

2013-01-01

As part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) program, the Pultruded Rod Stitched Efficient Unitized Structure (PRSEUS) has been designed, developed and tested. However, PRSEUS development efforts to date have only addressed joints required to transfer bending moments between PRSEUS panels. Development of in-plane joints for the PRSEUS concept is necessary to facilitate in-plane transfer of load from PRSEUS panels to an adjacent structure, such as from a wing panel into a fuselage. This paper presents preliminary design and analysis of an in-plane PRSEUS joint for connecting PRSEUS panels at the termination of the rod-stiffened stringers. Design requirements are provided, the PRSEUS blade joint concept is presented, and preliminary design changes and analyses are carried out to examine the feasibility of the proposed in-plane PRSEUS blade joint. The study conducted herein focuses mainly on the PRSEUS structure on one side of the joint. In particular, the design requirements for the rod shear stress and bolt bearing stress are examined. A PRSEUS blade joint design was developed that demonstrates the feasibility of this in-plane PRSEUS joint concept to terminate the rod-stiffened stringers. The presented design only demonstrates feasibility, therefore, some areas of refinement are presented that would lead to a more optimum and realistic design.

Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saltelli, Andrea [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (Vatican City State, Holy See,) (Italy)]. E-mail: andrea.saltelli@jrc.it; Ratto, Marco [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy); Tarantola, Stefano [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy); Campolongo, Francesca [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy)

2006-10-15

Fourteen years after Science's review of sensitivity analysis (SA) methods in 1989 (System analysis at molecular scale, by H. Rabitz) we search Science Online to identify and then review all recent articles having 'sensitivity analysis' as a keyword. In spite of the considerable developments which have taken place in this discipline, of the good practices which have emerged, and of existing guidelines for SA issued on both sides of the Atlantic, we could not find in our review other than very primitive SA tools, based on 'one-factor-at-a-time' (OAT) approaches. In the context of model corroboration or falsification, we demonstrate that this use of OAT methods is illicit and unjustified, unless the model under analysis is proved to be linear. We show that available good practices, such as variance based measures and others, are able to overcome OAT shortcomings and easy to implement. These methods also allow the concept of factors importance to be defined rigorously, thus making the factors importance ranking univocal. We analyse the requirements of SA in the context of modelling, and present best available practices on the basis of an elementary model. We also point the reader to available recipes for a rigorous SA.

Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saltelli, Andrea; Ratto, Marco; Tarantola, Stefano; Campolongo, Francesca

2006-01-01

Fourteen years after Science's review of sensitivity analysis (SA) methods in 1989 (System analysis at molecular scale, by H. Rabitz) we search Science Online to identify and then review all recent articles having 'sensitivity analysis' as a keyword. In spite of the considerable developments which have taken place in this discipline, of the good practices which have emerged, and of existing guidelines for SA issued on both sides of the Atlantic, we could not find in our review other than very primitive SA tools, based on 'one-factor-at-a-time' (OAT) approaches. In the context of model corroboration or falsification, we demonstrate that this use of OAT methods is illicit and unjustified, unless the model under analysis is proved to be linear. We show that available good practices, such as variance based measures and others, are able to overcome OAT shortcomings and easy to implement. These methods also allow the concept of factors importance to be defined rigorously, thus making the factors importance ranking univocal. We analyse the requirements of SA in the context of modelling, and present best available practices on the basis of an elementary model. We also point the reader to available recipes for a rigorous SA

Simple Sensitivity Analysis for Orion GNC

Science.gov (United States)

Pressburger, Tom; Hoelscher, Brian; Martin, Rodney; Sricharan, Kumar

2013-01-01

The performance of Orion flight software, especially its GNC software, is being analyzed by running Monte Carlo simulations of Orion spacecraft flights. The simulated performance is analyzed for conformance with flight requirements, expressed as performance constraints. Flight requirements include guidance (e.g. touchdown distance from target) and control (e.g., control saturation) as well as performance (e.g., heat load constraints). The Monte Carlo simulations disperse hundreds of simulation input variables, for everything from mass properties to date of launch.We describe in this paper a sensitivity analysis tool (Critical Factors Tool or CFT) developed to find the input variables or pairs of variables which by themselves significantly influence satisfaction of requirements or significantly affect key performance metrics (e.g., touchdown distance from target). Knowing these factors can inform robustness analysis, can inform where engineering resources are most needed, and could even affect operations. The contributions of this paper include the introduction of novel sensitivity measures, such as estimating success probability, and a technique for determining whether pairs of factors are interacting dependently or independently. The tool found that input variables such as moments, mass, thrust dispersions, and date of launch were found to be significant factors for success of various requirements. Examples are shown in this paper as well as a summary and physics discussion of EFT-1 driving factors that the tool found.

Global sensitivity analysis using polynomial chaos expansions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sudret, Bruno

2008-01-01

Global sensitivity analysis (SA) aims at quantifying the respective effects of input random variables (or combinations thereof) onto the variance of the response of a physical or mathematical model. Among the abundant literature on sensitivity measures, the Sobol' indices have received much attention since they provide accurate information for most models. The paper introduces generalized polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) to build surrogate models that allow one to compute the Sobol' indices analytically as a post-processing of the PCE coefficients. Thus the computational cost of the sensitivity indices practically reduces to that of estimating the PCE coefficients. An original non intrusive regression-based approach is proposed, together with an experimental design of minimal size. Various application examples illustrate the approach, both from the field of global SA (i.e. well-known benchmark problems) and from the field of stochastic mechanics. The proposed method gives accurate results for various examples that involve up to eight input random variables, at a computational cost which is 2-3 orders of magnitude smaller than the traditional Monte Carlo-based evaluation of the Sobol' indices

Global sensitivity analysis using polynomial chaos expansions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sudret, Bruno [Electricite de France, R and D Division, Site des Renardieres, F 77818 Moret-sur-Loing Cedex (France)], E-mail: bruno.sudret@edf.fr

2008-07-15

Global sensitivity analysis (SA) aims at quantifying the respective effects of input random variables (or combinations thereof) onto the variance of the response of a physical or mathematical model. Among the abundant literature on sensitivity measures, the Sobol' indices have received much attention since they provide accurate information for most models. The paper introduces generalized polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) to build surrogate models that allow one to compute the Sobol' indices analytically as a post-processing of the PCE coefficients. Thus the computational cost of the sensitivity indices practically reduces to that of estimating the PCE coefficients. An original non intrusive regression-based approach is proposed, together with an experimental design of minimal size. Various application examples illustrate the approach, both from the field of global SA (i.e. well-known benchmark problems) and from the field of stochastic mechanics. The proposed method gives accurate results for various examples that involve up to eight input random variables, at a computational cost which is 2-3 orders of magnitude smaller than the traditional Monte Carlo-based evaluation of the Sobol' indices.

Sensitization trajectories in childhood revealed by using a cluster analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schoos, Ann-Marie M.; Chawes, Bo L.; Melen, Erik

2017-01-01

Prospective Studies on Asthma in Childhood 2000 (COPSAC2000) birth cohort with specific IgE against 13 common food and inhalant allergens at the ages of ½, 1½, 4, and 6 years. An unsupervised cluster analysis for 3-dimensional data (nonnegative sparse parallel factor analysis) was used to extract latent......BACKGROUND: Assessment of sensitization at a single time point during childhood provides limited clinical information. We hypothesized that sensitization develops as specific patterns with respect to age at debut, development over time, and involved allergens and that such patterns might be more...... biologically and clinically relevant. OBJECTIVE: We sought to explore latent patterns of sensitization during the first 6 years of life and investigate whether such patterns associate with the development of asthma, rhinitis, and eczema. METHODS: We investigated 398 children from the at-risk Copenhagen...

Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of the WAVEWATCH III Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beng-Chun Lee

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The parameters in numerical wave models need to be calibrated be fore a model can be applied to a specific region. In this study, we selected the 8 most important parameters from the source term of the WAVEWATCH III model and subjected them to sensitivity analysis to evaluate the sensitivity of the WAVEWATCH III model to the selected parameters to determine how many of these parameters should be considered for further discussion, and to justify the significance priority of each parameter. After ranking each parameter by sensitivity and assessing their cumulative impact, we adopted the ARS method to search for the optimal values of those parameters to which the WAVEWATCH III model is most sensitive by comparing modeling results with ob served data at two data buoys off the coast of north eastern Taiwan; the goal being to find optimal parameter values for improved modeling of wave development. The procedure adopting optimal parameters in wave simulations did improve the accuracy of the WAVEWATCH III model in comparison to default runs based on field observations at two buoys.

New avenues in hypoxic cell sensitization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huilgol, N.G.; Chatterjee, N.A.; Singh, B.B.

1995-01-01

Hypoxic cells in tumors represent a population of cells that are resistant to radiotherapy. Bio-reductive agents like RSU 1069, RBU 6145 and EOg and vasoactive drugs in conjunction with hypoxic cell sensitizers are being evaluated as hypoxic cell cytotoxins. Chlorpromazine a membrane active drug and AK-2123- a nitrotriazole with a potential to deplete intracellular thiols induced vasoconstriction and sensitize hypoxic cells have stretched the boundaries of innovation. A preliminary experience with these drugs is discussed. 8 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs

Global and Local Sensitivity Analysis Methods for a Physical System

Science.gov (United States)

Morio, Jerome

2011-01-01

Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the different input variations of a mathematical model influence the variability of its output. In this paper, we review the principle of global and local sensitivity analyses of a complex black-box system. A simulated case of application is given at the end of this paper to compare both approaches.…

Sensitivity Analysis to Control the Far-Wake Unsteadiness Behind Turbines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esteban Ferrer

2017-10-01

Full Text Available We explore the stability of wakes arising from 2D flow actuators based on linear momentum actuator disc theory. We use stability and sensitivity analysis (using adjoints to show that the wake stability is controlled by the Reynolds number and the thrust force (or flow resistance applied through the turbine. First, we report that decreasing the thrust force has a comparable stabilising effect to a decrease in Reynolds numbers (based on the turbine diameter. Second, a discrete sensitivity analysis identifies two regions for suitable placement of flow control forcing, one close to the turbines and one far downstream. Third, we show that adding a localised control force, in the regions identified by the sensitivity analysis, stabilises the wake. Particularly, locating the control forcing close to the turbines results in an enhanced stabilisation such that the wake remains steady for significantly higher Reynolds numbers or turbine thrusts. The analysis of the controlled flow fields confirms that modifying the velocity gradient close to the turbine is more efficient to stabilise the wake than controlling the wake far downstream. The analysis is performed for the first flow bifurcation (at low Reynolds numbers which serves as a foundation of the stabilization technique but the control strategy is tested at higher Reynolds numbers in the final section of the paper, showing enhanced stability for a turbulent flow case.

A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

2014-03-01

GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty-sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights.

Variance estimation for sensitivity analysis of poverty and inequality measures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Dudel

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Estimates of poverty and inequality are often based on application of a single equivalence scale, despite the fact that a large number of different equivalence scales can be found in the literature. This paper describes a framework for sensitivity analysis which can be used to account for the variability of equivalence scales and allows to derive variance estimates of results of sensitivity analysis. Simulations show that this method yields reliable estimates. An empirical application reveals that accounting for both variability of equivalence scales and sampling variance leads to confidence intervals which are wide.

Applying DEA sensitivity analysis to efficiency measurement of Vietnamese universities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thi Thanh Huyen Nguyen

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The primary purpose of this study is to measure the technical efficiency of 30 doctorate-granting universities, the universities or the higher education institutes with PhD training programs, in Vietnam, applying the sensitivity analysis of data envelopment analysis (DEA. The study uses eight sets of input-output specifications using the replacement as well as aggregation/disaggregation of variables. The measurement results allow us to examine the sensitivity of the efficiency of these universities with the sets of variables. The findings also show the impact of variables on their efficiency and its “sustainability”.

Code development of total sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for reactor physics calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wan, C.; Cao, L.; Wu, H.; Zu, T.; Shen, W.

2015-01-01

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are essential parts for reactor system to perform risk and policy analysis. In this study, total sensitivity and corresponding uncertainty analysis for responses of neutronics calculations have been accomplished and developed the S&U analysis code named UNICORN. The UNICORN code can consider the implicit effects of multigroup cross sections on the responses. The UNICORN code has been applied to typical pin-cell case in this paper, and can be proved correct by comparison the results with those of the TSUNAMI-1D code. (author)

Code development of total sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for reactor physics calculations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wan, C.; Cao, L.; Wu, H.; Zu, T., E-mail: chenghuiwan@stu.xjtu.edu.cn, E-mail: caolz@mail.xjtu.edu.cn, E-mail: hongchun@mail.xjtu.edu.cn, E-mail: tiejun@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [Xi' an Jiaotong Univ., School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi' an (China); Shen, W., E-mail: Wei.Shen@cnsc-ccsn.gc.ca [Xi' an Jiaotong Univ., School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi' an (China); Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

2015-07-01

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are essential parts for reactor system to perform risk and policy analysis. In this study, total sensitivity and corresponding uncertainty analysis for responses of neutronics calculations have been accomplished and developed the S&U analysis code named UNICORN. The UNICORN code can consider the implicit effects of multigroup cross sections on the responses. The UNICORN code has been applied to typical pin-cell case in this paper, and can be proved correct by comparison the results with those of the TSUNAMI-1D code. (author)

Sensitivity analysis of hybrid power systems using Power Pinch Analysis considering Feed-in Tariff

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohammad Rozali, Nor Erniza; Wan Alwi, Sharifah Rafidah; Manan, Zainuddin Abdul; Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír

2016-01-01

Feed-in Tariff (FiT) has been one of the most effective policies in accelerating the development of renewable energy (RE) projects. The amount of RE electricity in the FiT purchase agreement is an important decision that has to be made by the RE project developers. They have to consider various crucial factors associated with RE system operation as well as its stochastic nature. The presented work aims to assess the sensitivity and profitability of a hybrid power system (HPS) in cases of RE system failure or shutdown. The amount of RE electricity for the FiT purchase agreement in various scenarios was determined using a novel tool called On-Grid Problem Table based on the Power Pinch Analysis (PoPA). A sensitivity table has also been introduced to assist planners to evaluate the effects of the RE system's failure on the profitability of the HPS. This table offers insights on the variance of the RE electricity. The sensitivity analysis of various possible scenarios shows that the RE projects can still provide financial benefits via the FiT, despite the losses incurred from the penalty levied. - Highlights: • A Power Pinch Analysis (PoPA) tool to assess the economics of an HPS with FiT. • The new On-Grid Problem Table for targeting the available RE electricity for FiT sale. • A sensitivity table showing the effect of RE electricity changes on the HPS profitability.

B1 -sensitivity analysis of quantitative magnetization transfer imaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Boudreau, Mathieu; Stikov, Nikola; Pike, G Bruce

2018-01-01

To evaluate the sensitivity of quantitative magnetization transfer (qMT) fitted parameters to B 1 inaccuracies, focusing on the difference between two categories of T 1 mapping techniques: B 1 -independent and B 1 -dependent. The B 1 -sensitivity of qMT was investigated and compared using two T 1 measurement methods: inversion recovery (IR) (B 1 -independent) and variable flip angle (VFA), B 1 -dependent). The study was separated into four stages: 1) numerical simulations, 2) sensitivity analysis of the Z-spectra, 3) healthy subjects at 3T, and 4) comparison using three different B 1 imaging techniques. For typical B 1 variations in the brain at 3T (±30%), the simulations resulted in errors of the pool-size ratio (F) ranging from -3% to 7% for VFA, and -40% to > 100% for IR, agreeing with the Z-spectra sensitivity analysis. In healthy subjects, pooled whole-brain Pearson correlation coefficients for F (comparing measured double angle and nominal flip angle B 1 maps) were ρ = 0.97/0.81 for VFA/IR. This work describes the B 1 -sensitivity characteristics of qMT, demonstrating that it varies substantially on the B 1 -dependency of the T 1 mapping method. Particularly, the pool-size ratio is more robust against B 1 inaccuracies if VFA T 1 mapping is used, so much so that B 1 mapping could be omitted without substantially biasing F. Magn Reson Med 79:276-285, 2018. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final repository performance assessment models (MOSEL)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spiessl, Sabine; Becker, Dirk-Alexander

2017-06-01

Sensitivity analysis is a mathematical means for analysing the sensitivities of a computational model to variations of its input parameters. Thus, it is a tool for managing parameter uncertainties. It is often performed probabilistically as global sensitivity analysis, running the model a large number of times with different parameter value combinations. Going along with the increase of computer capabilities, global sensitivity analysis has been a field of mathematical research for some decades. In the field of final repository modelling, probabilistic analysis is regarded a key element of a modern safety case. An appropriate uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can help identify parameters that need further dedicated research to reduce the overall uncertainty, generally leads to better system understanding and can thus contribute to building confidence in the models. The purpose of the project described here was to systematically investigate different numerical and graphical techniques of sensitivity analysis with typical repository models, which produce a distinctly right-skewed and tailed output distribution and can exhibit a highly nonlinear, non-monotonic or even non-continuous behaviour. For the investigations presented here, three test models were defined that describe generic, but typical repository systems. A number of numerical and graphical sensitivity analysis methods were selected for investigation and, in part, modified or adapted. Different sampling methods were applied to produce various parameter samples of different sizes and many individual runs with the test models were performed. The results were evaluated with the different methods of sensitivity analysis. On this basis the methods were compared and assessed. This report gives an overview of the background and the applied methods. The results obtained for three typical test models are presented and explained; conclusions in view of practical applications are drawn. At the end, a recommendation

Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final repository performance assessment models (MOSEL)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Spiessl, Sabine; Becker, Dirk-Alexander

2017-06-15

Sensitivity analysis is a mathematical means for analysing the sensitivities of a computational model to variations of its input parameters. Thus, it is a tool for managing parameter uncertainties. It is often performed probabilistically as global sensitivity analysis, running the model a large number of times with different parameter value combinations. Going along with the increase of computer capabilities, global sensitivity analysis has been a field of mathematical research for some decades. In the field of final repository modelling, probabilistic analysis is regarded a key element of a modern safety case. An appropriate uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can help identify parameters that need further dedicated research to reduce the overall uncertainty, generally leads to better system understanding and can thus contribute to building confidence in the models. The purpose of the project described here was to systematically investigate different numerical and graphical techniques of sensitivity analysis with typical repository models, which produce a distinctly right-skewed and tailed output distribution and can exhibit a highly nonlinear, non-monotonic or even non-continuous behaviour. For the investigations presented here, three test models were defined that describe generic, but typical repository systems. A number of numerical and graphical sensitivity analysis methods were selected for investigation and, in part, modified or adapted. Different sampling methods were applied to produce various parameter samples of different sizes and many individual runs with the test models were performed. The results were evaluated with the different methods of sensitivity analysis. On this basis the methods were compared and assessed. This report gives an overview of the background and the applied methods. The results obtained for three typical test models are presented and explained; conclusions in view of practical applications are drawn. At the end, a recommendation

Meta-analysis of the relative sensitivity of semi-natural vegetation species to ozone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hayes, F.; Jones, M.L.M.; Mills, G.; Ashmore, M.

2007-01-01

This study identified 83 species from existing publications suitable for inclusion in a database of sensitivity of species to ozone (OZOVEG database). An index, the relative sensitivity to ozone, was calculated for each species based on changes in biomass in order to test for species traits associated with ozone sensitivity. Meta-analysis of the ozone sensitivity data showed a wide inter-specific range in response to ozone. Some relationships in comparison to plant physiological and ecological characteristics were identified. Plants of the therophyte lifeform were particularly sensitive to ozone. Species with higher mature leaf N concentration were more sensitive to ozone than those with lower leaf N concentration. Some relationships between relative sensitivity to ozone and Ellenberg habitat requirements were also identified. In contrast, no relationships between relative sensitivity to ozone and mature leaf P concentration, Grime's CSR strategy, leaf longevity, flowering season, stomatal density and maximum altitude were found. The relative sensitivity of species and relationships with plant characteristics identified in this study could be used to predict sensitivity to ozone of untested species and communities. - Meta-analysis of the relative sensitivity of semi-natural vegetation species to ozone showed some relationships with physiological and ecological characteristics

Code development for eigenvalue total sensitivity analysis and total uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wan, Chenghui; Cao, Liangzhi; Wu, Hongchun; Zu, Tiejun; Shen, Wei

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We develop a new code for total sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. • The implicit effects of cross sections can be considered. • The results of our code agree well with TSUNAMI-1D. • Detailed analysis for origins of implicit effects is performed. - Abstract: The uncertainties of multigroup cross sections notably impact eigenvalue of neutron-transport equation. We report on a total sensitivity analysis and total uncertainty analysis code named UNICORN that has been developed by applying the direct numerical perturbation method and statistical sampling method. In order to consider the contributions of various basic cross sections and the implicit effects which are indirect results of multigroup cross sections through resonance self-shielding calculation, an improved multigroup cross-section perturbation model is developed. The DRAGON 4.0 code, with application of WIMSD-4 format library, is used by UNICORN to carry out the resonance self-shielding and neutron-transport calculations. In addition, the bootstrap technique has been applied to the statistical sampling method in UNICORN to obtain much steadier and more reliable uncertainty results. The UNICORN code has been verified against TSUNAMI-1D by analyzing the case of TMI-1 pin-cell. The numerical results show that the total uncertainty of eigenvalue caused by cross sections can reach up to be about 0.72%. Therefore the contributions of the basic cross sections and their implicit effects are not negligible

Development of a System Analysis Toolkit for Sensitivity Analysis, Uncertainty Propagation, and Estimation of Parameter Distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heo, Jaeseok; Kim, Kyung Doo

2015-01-01

Statistical approaches to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis are very important in estimating the safety margins for an engineering design application. This paper presents a system analysis and optimization toolkit developed by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), which includes multiple packages of the sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification algorithms. In order to reduce the computing demand, multiple compute resources including multiprocessor computers and a network of workstations are simultaneously used. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) was also developed within the parallel computing framework for users to readily employ the toolkit for an engineering design and optimization problem. The goal of this work is to develop a GUI framework for engineering design and scientific analysis problems by implementing multiple packages of system analysis methods in the parallel computing toolkit. This was done by building an interface between an engineering simulation code and the system analysis software packages. The methods and strategies in the framework were designed to exploit parallel computing resources such as those found in a desktop multiprocessor workstation or a network of workstations. Available approaches in the framework include statistical and mathematical algorithms for use in science and engineering design problems. Currently the toolkit has 6 modules of the system analysis methodologies: deterministic and probabilistic approaches of data assimilation, uncertainty propagation, Chi-square linearity test, sensitivity analysis, and FFTBM

Development of a System Analysis Toolkit for Sensitivity Analysis, Uncertainty Propagation, and Estimation of Parameter Distribution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heo, Jaeseok; Kim, Kyung Doo [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

Statistical approaches to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis are very important in estimating the safety margins for an engineering design application. This paper presents a system analysis and optimization toolkit developed by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), which includes multiple packages of the sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification algorithms. In order to reduce the computing demand, multiple compute resources including multiprocessor computers and a network of workstations are simultaneously used. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) was also developed within the parallel computing framework for users to readily employ the toolkit for an engineering design and optimization problem. The goal of this work is to develop a GUI framework for engineering design and scientific analysis problems by implementing multiple packages of system analysis methods in the parallel computing toolkit. This was done by building an interface between an engineering simulation code and the system analysis software packages. The methods and strategies in the framework were designed to exploit parallel computing resources such as those found in a desktop multiprocessor workstation or a network of workstations. Available approaches in the framework include statistical and mathematical algorithms for use in science and engineering design problems. Currently the toolkit has 6 modules of the system analysis methodologies: deterministic and probabilistic approaches of data assimilation, uncertainty propagation, Chi-square linearity test, sensitivity analysis, and FFTBM.

Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of an Eulerian large-scale air pollution model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dimov, I.; Georgieva, R.; Ostromsky, Tz.

2012-01-01

Variance-based approaches for global sensitivity analysis have been applied and analyzed to study the sensitivity of air pollutant concentrations according to variations of rates of chemical reactions. The Unified Danish Eulerian Model has been used as a mathematical model simulating a remote transport of air pollutants. Various Monte Carlo algorithms for numerical integration have been applied to compute Sobol's global sensitivity indices. A newly developed Monte Carlo algorithm based on Sobol's quasi-random points MCA-MSS has been applied for numerical integration. It has been compared with some existing approaches, namely Sobol's ΛΠ τ sequences, an adaptive Monte Carlo algorithm, the plain Monte Carlo algorithm, as well as, eFAST and Sobol's sensitivity approaches both implemented in SIMLAB software. The analysis and numerical results show advantages of MCA-MSS for relatively small sensitivity indices in terms of accuracy and efficiency. Practical guidelines on the estimation of Sobol's global sensitivity indices in the presence of computational difficulties have been provided. - Highlights: ► Variance-based global sensitivity analysis is performed for the air pollution model UNI-DEM. ► The main effect of input parameters dominates over higher-order interactions. ► Ozone concentrations are influenced mostly by variability of three chemical reactions rates. ► The newly developed MCA-MSS for multidimensional integration is compared with other approaches. ► More precise approaches like MCA-MSS should be applied when the needed accuracy has not been achieved.

Nordic reference study on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirschberg, S.; Jacobsson, P.; Pulkkinen, U.; Porn, K.

1989-01-01

This paper provides a review of the first phase of Nordic reference study on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. The main objective of this study is to use experiences form previous Nordic Benchmark Exercises and reference studies concerning critical modeling issues such as common cause failures and human interactions, and to demonstrate the impact of associated uncertainties on the uncertainty of the investigated accident sequence. This has been done independently by three working groups which used different approaches to modeling and to uncertainty analysis. The estimated uncertainty interval for the analyzed accident sequence is large. Also the discrepancies between the groups are substantial but can be explained. Sensitivity analyses which have been carried out concern e.g. use of different CCF-quantification models, alternative handling of CCF-data, time windows for operator actions and time dependences in phase mission operation, impact of state-of-knowledge dependences and ranking of dominating uncertainty contributors. Specific findings with respect to these issues are summarized in the paper

A Preliminary Analysis of Reactor Performance Test (LOEP) for a Research Reactor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Hyeonil; Park, Su-Ki [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

The final phase of commissioning is reactor performance test, which is to prove the integrated performance and safety of the research reactor at full power with fuel loaded such as neutron power calibration, Control Absorber Rod/Second Shutdown Rod drop time, InC function test, Criticality, Rod worth, Core heat removal with natural mechanism, and so forth. The last test will be safety-related one to assure the result of the safety analysis of the research reactor is marginal enough to be sure about the nuclear safety by showing the reactor satisfies the acceptance criteria of the safety functions such as for reactivity control, maintenance of auxiliaries, reactor pool water inventory control, core heat removal, and confinement isolation. After all, the fuel integrity will be ensured by verifying there is no meaningful change in the radiation levels. To confirm the performance of safety equipment, loss of normal electric power (LOEP), possibly categorized as Anticipated Operational Occurrence (AOO), is selected as a key experiment to figure out how safe the research reactor is before turning over the research reactor to the owner. This paper presents a preliminary analysis of the reactor performance test (LOEP) for a research reactor. The results showed how different the transient between conservative estimate and best estimate will look. Preliminary analyses have shown all probable thermal-hydraulic transient behavior of importance as to opening of flap valve, minimum critical heat flux ratio, the change of flow direction, and important values of thermal-hydraulic parameters.

Linear Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of the Constraint Coefficient Matrix in Linear Programs

OpenAIRE

Zuidwijk, Rob

2005-01-01

textabstractSensitivity analysis is used to quantify the impact of changes in the initial data of linear programs on the optimal value. In particular, parametric sensitivity analysis involves a perturbation analysis in which the effects of small changes of some or all of the initial data on an optimal solution are investigated, and the optimal solution is studied on a so-called critical range of the initial data, in which certain properties such as the optimal basis in linear programming are ...

Global sensitivity analysis of Alkali-Surfactant-Polymer enhanced oil recovery processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carrero, Enrique; Queipo, Nestor V.; Pintos, Salvador; Zerpa, Luis E. [Applied Computing Institute, Faculty of Engineering, University of Zulia, Zulia (Venezuela)

2007-08-15

After conventional waterflooding processes the residual oil in the reservoir remains as a discontinuous phase in the form of oil drops trapped by capillary forces and is likely to be around 70% of the original oil in place (OOIP). The EOR method so-called Alkaline-Surfactant-Polymer (ASP) flooding has been proved to be effective in reducing the oil residual saturation in laboratory experiments and field projects through reduction of interfacial tension and mobility ratio between oil and water phases. A critical step for the optimal design and control of ASP recovery processes is to find the relative contributions of design variables such as, slug size and chemical concentrations, in the variability of given performance measures (e.g., net present value, cumulative oil recovery), considering a heterogeneous and multiphase petroleum reservoir (sensitivity analysis). Previously reported works using reservoir numerical simulation have been limited to local sensitivity analyses because a global sensitivity analysis may require hundreds or even thousands of computationally expensive evaluations (field scale numerical simulations). To overcome this issue, a surrogate-based approach is suggested. Surrogate-based analysis/optimization makes reference to the idea of constructing an alternative fast model (surrogate) from numerical simulation data and using it for analysis/optimization purposes. This paper presents an efficient global sensitivity approach based on Sobol's method and multiple surrogates (i.e., Polynomial Regression, Kriging, Radial Base Functions and a Weighed Adaptive Model), with the multiple surrogates used to address the uncertainty in the analysis derived from plausible alternative surrogate-modeling schemes. The proposed approach was evaluated in the context of the global sensitivity analysis of a field scale Alkali-Surfactant-Polymer flooding process. The design variables and the performance measure in the ASP process were selected as slug size

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis incorporating the bootstrap: an example comparing treatments for the eradication of Helicobacter pylori.

Science.gov (United States)

Pasta, D J; Taylor, J L; Henning, J M

1999-01-01

Decision-analytic models are frequently used to evaluate the relative costs and benefits of alternative therapeutic strategies for health care. Various types of sensitivity analysis are used to evaluate the uncertainty inherent in the models. Although probabilistic sensitivity analysis is more difficult theoretically and computationally, the results can be much more powerful and useful than deterministic sensitivity analysis. The authors show how a Monte Carlo simulation can be implemented using standard software to perform a probabilistic sensitivity analysis incorporating the bootstrap. The method is applied to a decision-analytic model evaluating the cost-effectiveness of Helicobacter pylori eradication. The necessary steps are straightforward and are described in detail. The use of the bootstrap avoids certain difficulties encountered with theoretical distributions. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis provided insights into the decision-analytic model beyond the traditional base-case and deterministic sensitivity analyses and should become the standard method for assessing sensitivity.

Sensitivity Analysis of features in tolerancing based on constraint function level sets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ziegler, Philipp; Wartzack, Sandro

2015-01-01

Usually, the geometry of the manufactured product inherently varies from the nominal geometry. This may negatively affect the product functions and properties (such as quality and reliability), as well as the assemblability of the single components. In order to avoid this, the geometric variation of these component surfaces and associated geometry elements (like hole axes) are restricted by tolerances. Since tighter tolerances lead to significant higher manufacturing costs, tolerances should be specified carefully. Therefore, the impact of deviating component surfaces on functions, properties and assemblability of the product has to be analyzed. As physical experiments are expensive, methods of statistical tolerance analysis tools are widely used in engineering design. Current tolerance simulation tools lack of an appropriate indicator for the impact of deviating component surfaces. In the adoption of Sensitivity Analysis methods, there are several challenges, which arise from the specific framework in tolerancing. This paper presents an approach to adopt Sensitivity Analysis methods on current tolerance simulations with an interface module, which bases on level sets of constraint functions for parameters of the simulation model. The paper is an extension and generalization of Ziegler and Wartzack [1]. Mathematical properties of the constraint functions (convexity, homogeneity), which are important for the computational costs of the Sensitivity Analysis, are shown. The practical use of the method is illustrated in a case study of a plain bearing. - Highlights: • Alternative definition of Deviation Domains. • Proof of mathematical properties of the Deviation Domains. • Definition of the interface between Deviation Domains and Sensitivity Analysis. • Sensitivity analysis of a gearbox to show the methods practical use

Preliminary Analysis of the Bundle-Duct Interaction for the fuel of SFR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Byoung Oon; Cheon, Jin Sik; Hahn, Do Hee; Lee, Chan Bock [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2008-10-15

BDI (Bundle-Duct Interaction) occurs in the fuel of SFR (Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor) due to the radial expansion and bowing of a fuel pin bundle. Under the BDI condition, excess cladding strain and hot spots would occur. Therefore, BDI, which is the dominant deformation mechanisms in a fuel pin bundle, should be considered to evaluate the FBR fuel integrity. The analysis codes such as ETOILE and BMBOO, have been developed to evaluate the BDI behavior. The bundle duct interaction model is also being developed for SFR in Korea. This model is based on ANSYS. In this paper, the fuel pin configuration model for the BDI calculation was established. The preliminary analysis of the bundle-duct interaction was performed to evaluate the fuel design concept.

Sensitivity analysis in multiple imputation in effectiveness studies of psychotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Crameri, Aureliano; von Wyl, Agnes; Koemeda, Margit; Schulthess, Peter; Tschuschke, Volker

2015-01-01

The importance of preventing and treating incomplete data in effectiveness studies is nowadays emphasized. However, most of the publications focus on randomized clinical trials (RCT). One flexible technique for statistical inference with missing data is multiple imputation (MI). Since methods such as MI rely on the assumption of missing data being at random (MAR), a sensitivity analysis for testing the robustness against departures from this assumption is required. In this paper we present a sensitivity analysis technique based on posterior predictive checking, which takes into consideration the concept of clinical significance used in the evaluation of intra-individual changes. We demonstrate the possibilities this technique can offer with the example of irregular longitudinal data collected with the Outcome Questionnaire-45 (OQ-45) and the Helping Alliance Questionnaire (HAQ) in a sample of 260 outpatients. The sensitivity analysis can be used to (1) quantify the degree of bias introduced by missing not at random data (MNAR) in a worst reasonable case scenario, (2) compare the performance of different analysis methods for dealing with missing data, or (3) detect the influence of possible violations to the model assumptions (e.g., lack of normality). Moreover, our analysis showed that ratings from the patient's and therapist's version of the HAQ could significantly improve the predictive value of the routine outcome monitoring based on the OQ-45. Since analysis dropouts always occur, repeated measurements with the OQ-45 and the HAQ analyzed with MI are useful to improve the accuracy of outcome estimates in quality assurance assessments and non-randomized effectiveness studies in the field of outpatient psychotherapy.

Preliminary Failure Modes and Effects Analysis of the US DCLL Test Blanket Module

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee C. Cadwallader

2010-06-01

This report presents the results of a preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of a small tritium-breeding test blanket module design for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. The FMEA was quantified with “generic” component failure rate data, and the failure events are binned into postulated initiating event families and frequency categories for safety assessment. An appendix to this report contains repair time data to support an occupational radiation exposure assessment for test blanket module maintenance.

Preliminary Failure Modes and Effects Analysis of the US DCLL Test Blanket Module

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee C. Cadwallader

2007-08-01

This report presents the results of a preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of a small tritium-breeding test blanket module design for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. The FMEA was quantified with “generic” component failure rate data, and the failure events are binned into postulated initiating event families and frequency categories for safety assessment. An appendix to this report contains repair time data to support an occupational radiation exposure assessment for test blanket module maintenance.

Preliminary Failure Modes and Effects Analysis of the US DCLL Test Blanket Module

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee C. Cadwallader

2007-01-01

This report presents the results of a preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of a small tritium-breeding test blanket module design for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. The FMEA was quantified with 'generic' component failure rate data, and the failure events are binned into postulated initiating event families and frequency categories for safety assessment. An appendix to this report contains repair time data to support an occupational radiation exposure assessment for test blanket module maintenance

Optimizing human activity patterns using global sensitivity analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Fairchild, Geoffrey; Hickmann, Kyle S; Mniszewski, Susan M; Del Valle, Sara Y; Hyman, James M

2014-12-01

Implementing realistic activity patterns for a population is crucial for modeling, for example, disease spread, supply and demand, and disaster response. Using the dynamic activity simulation engine, DASim, we generate schedules for a population that capture regular (e.g., working, eating, and sleeping) and irregular activities (e.g., shopping or going to the doctor). We use the sample entropy (SampEn) statistic to quantify a schedule's regularity for a population. We show how to tune an activity's regularity by adjusting SampEn, thereby making it possible to realistically design activities when creating a schedule. The tuning process sets up a computationally intractable high-dimensional optimization problem. To reduce the computational demand, we use Bayesian Gaussian process regression to compute global sensitivity indices and identify the parameters that have the greatest effect on the variance of SampEn. We use the harmony search (HS) global optimization algorithm to locate global optima. Our results show that HS combined with global sensitivity analysis can efficiently tune the SampEn statistic with few search iterations. We demonstrate how global sensitivity analysis can guide statistical emulation and global optimization algorithms to efficiently tune activities and generate realistic activity patterns. Though our tuning methods are applied to dynamic activity schedule generation, they are general and represent a significant step in the direction of automated tuning and optimization of high-dimensional computer simulations.

Preliminary fire hazard analysis for the PUTDR and TRU trenches in the Solid Waste Burial Ground

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gaschott, L.J.

1995-01-01

This document represents the Preliminary Fire Hazards Analysis for the Pilot Unvented TRU Drum Retrieval effort and for the Transuranic drum trenches in the low level burial grounds. The FHA was developed in accordance with DOE Order 5480.7A to address major hazards inherent in the facility

Preliminary performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, December 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-12-01

Before disposing of transuranic radioactive waste in the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), the United States Department of Energy (DOE) must evaluate compliance with applicable long-term regulations of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Sandia National Laboratories is conducting iterative performance assessments (PAs) of the WIPP for the DOE to provide interim guidance while preparing for a final compliance evaluation. This volume, Volume 2, contains the technical basis for the 1992 PA. Specifically, it describes the conceptual basis for consequence modeling and the PA methodology, including the selection of scenarios for analysis, the determination of scenario probabilities, and the estimation of scenario consequences using a Monte Carlo technique and a linked system of computational models. Additional information about the 1992 PA is provided in other volumes. Volume I contains an overview of WIPP PA and results of a preliminary comparison with the long-term requirements of the EPA's Environmental Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Radioactive Wastes (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). Volume 3 contains the reference data base and values for input parameters used in consequence and probability modeling. Volume 4 contains uncertainty and sensitivity analyses related to the preliminary comparison with 40 CFR 191B. Volume 5 contains uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of gas and brine migration for undisturbed performance. Finally, guidance derived from the entire 1992 PA is presented in Volume 6

Sensitivity analysis overlaps of friction elements in cartridge seals

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