Competition, predation and species responses to environmental change
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jiang, Lin; Kulczychi, A. [Rutgers Univ., Cook College, Dept. of Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources, New Brunswick, NJ (United States)
2004-08-01
Despite much effort over the past decade on the ecological consequences of global warming, ecologists still have little understanding of the importance of interspecific interactions in species responses to environmental change. Models predict that predation should mitigate species responses to environmental change, and that interspecific competition should aggravate species responses to environmental change. To test this prediction, we studied how predation and competition affected the responses of two ciliates, Colpidiumstriatum and Parameciumtetraurelia, to temperature change in laboratory microcosms. We found that neither predation nor competition altered the responses of Colpidiumstratum to temperature change, and that competition but not predation altered the responses of Paramecium tetraurelia to temperature change. Asymmetric interactions and temperature-dependent interactions may have contributed to the disparity between model predictions and experimental results. Our results suggest that models ignoring inherent complexities in ecological communities may be inadequate in forecasting species responses to environmental change. (au)
Van der Putten, Wim H; Macel, Mirka; Visser, Marcel E
2010-07-12
Current predictions on species responses to climate change strongly rely on projecting altered environmental conditions on species distributions. However, it is increasingly acknowledged that climate change also influences species interactions. We review and synthesize literature information on biotic interactions and use it to argue that the abundance of species and the direction of selection during climate change vary depending on how their trophic interactions become disrupted. Plant abundance can be controlled by aboveground and belowground multitrophic level interactions with herbivores, pathogens, symbionts and their enemies. We discuss how these interactions may alter during climate change and the resulting species range shifts. We suggest conceptual analogies between species responses to climate warming and exotic species introduced in new ranges. There are also important differences: the herbivores, pathogens and mutualistic symbionts of range-expanding species and their enemies may co-migrate, and the continuous gene flow under climate warming can make adaptation in the expansion zone of range expanders different from that of cross-continental exotic species. We conclude that under climate change, results of altered species interactions may vary, ranging from species becoming rare to disproportionately abundant. Taking these possibilities into account will provide a new perspective on predicting species distribution under climate change.
Species biogeography predicts drought responses in a seasonally dry tropical forest
Schwartz, N.; Powers, J. S.; Vargas, G.; Xu, X.; Smith, C. M.; Brodribb, T.; Werden, L. K.; Becknell, J.; Medvigy, D.
2017-12-01
The timing, distribution, and amount of rainfall in the seasonal tropics have shifted in recent years, with consequences for seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF). SDTF are sensitive to changing rainfall regimes and drought conditions, but sensitivity to drought varies substantially across species. One potential explanation of species differences is that species that experience dry conditions more frequently throughout their range will be better able to cope with drought than species from wetter climates, because species from drier climates will be better adapted to drought. An El-Niño induced drought in 2015 presented an opportunity to assess species-level differences in mortality in SDTF, and to ask whether the ranges of rainfall conditions species experience and the average rainfall regimes in species' ranges predict differences in mortality rates in Costa Rican SDTF. We used field plot data from northwest Costa Rica to determine species' level mortality rates. Mortality rates ranged substantially across species, with some species having no dead individuals to as high as 50% mortality. To quantify rainfall conditions across species' ranges, we used species occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, and rainfall data from the Chelsa climate dataset. We found that while the average and range of mean annual rainfall across species ranges did not predict drought-induced mortality in the field plots, across-range averages of the seasonality index, a measure of rainfall seasonality, was strongly correlated with species-level drought mortality (r = -0.62, p < 0.05), with species from more strongly seasonal climates experiencing less severe drought mortality. Furthermore, we found that the seasonality index was a stronger predictor of mortality than any individual functional trait we considered. This result shows that species' biogeography may be an important factor for how species will respond to future drought, and may be a more integrative
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Arndal, M.F.; Merrild, M.P.; Michelsen, A.
2013-01-01
Accurate predictions of nutrient acquisition by plant roots and mycorrhizas are critical in modelling plant responses to climate change.We conducted a field experiment with the aim to investigate root nutrient uptake in a future climate and studied root production by ingrowth cores, mycorrhizal...... to elevated CO2. The species-specific response to the treatments suggests different sensitivity to global change factors, which could result in changed plant competitive interactions and belowground nutrient pool sizes in response to future climate change....
Species interactions reverse grassland responses to changing climate.
Suttle, K B; Thomsen, Meredith A; Power, Mary E
2007-02-02
Predictions of ecological response to climate change are based largely on direct climatic effects on species. We show that, in a California grassland, species interactions strongly influence responses to changing climate, overturning direct climatic effects within 5 years. We manipulated the seasonality and intensity of rainfall over large, replicate plots in accordance with projections of leading climate models and examined responses across several trophic levels. Changes in seasonal water availability had pronounced effects on individual species, but as precipitation regimes were sustained across years, feedbacks and species interactions overrode autecological responses to water and reversed community trajectories. Conditions that sharply increased production and diversity through 2 years caused simplification of the food web and deep reductions in consumer abundance after 5 years. Changes in these natural grassland communities suggest a prominent role for species interactions in ecosystem response to climate change.
Thematic and spatial resolutions affect model-based predictions of tree species distribution.
Liang, Yu; He, Hong S; Fraser, Jacob S; Wu, ZhiWei
2013-01-01
Subjective decisions of thematic and spatial resolutions in characterizing environmental heterogeneity may affect the characterizations of spatial pattern and the simulation of occurrence and rate of ecological processes, and in turn, model-based tree species distribution. Thus, this study quantified the importance of thematic and spatial resolutions, and their interaction in predictions of tree species distribution (quantified by species abundance). We investigated how model-predicted species abundances changed and whether tree species with different ecological traits (e.g., seed dispersal distance, competitive capacity) had different responses to varying thematic and spatial resolutions. We used the LANDIS forest landscape model to predict tree species distribution at the landscape scale and designed a series of scenarios with different thematic (different numbers of land types) and spatial resolutions combinations, and then statistically examined the differences of species abundance among these scenarios. Results showed that both thematic and spatial resolutions affected model-based predictions of species distribution, but thematic resolution had a greater effect. Species ecological traits affected the predictions. For species with moderate dispersal distance and relatively abundant seed sources, predicted abundance increased as thematic resolution increased. However, for species with long seeding distance or high shade tolerance, thematic resolution had an inverse effect on predicted abundance. When seed sources and dispersal distance were not limiting, the predicted species abundance increased with spatial resolution and vice versa. Results from this study may provide insights into the choice of thematic and spatial resolutions for model-based predictions of tree species distribution.
Are species' responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution?
Lavergne, Sébastien; Evans, Margaret E. K.; Burfield, Ian J.; Jiguet, Frederic; Thuiller, Wilfried
2013-01-01
Predicting how and when adaptive evolution might rescue species from global change, and integrating this process into tools of biodiversity forecasting, has now become an urgent task. Here, we explored whether recent population trends of species can be explained by their past rate of niche evolution, which can be inferred from increasingly available phylogenetic and niche data. We examined the assemblage of 409 European bird species for which estimates of demographic trends between 1970 and 2000 are available, along with a species-level phylogeny and data on climatic, habitat and trophic niches. We found that species' proneness to demographic decline is associated with slow evolution of the habitat niche in the past, in addition to certain current-day life-history and ecological traits. A similar result was found at a higher taxonomic level, where families prone to decline have had a history of slower evolution of climatic and habitat niches. Our results support the view that niche conservatism can prevent some species from coping with environmental change. Thus, linking patterns of past niche evolution and contemporary species dynamics for large species samples may provide insights into how niche evolution may rescue certain lineages in the face of global change. PMID:23209172
Confronting species distribution model predictions with species functional traits.
Wittmann, Marion E; Barnes, Matthew A; Jerde, Christopher L; Jones, Lisa A; Lodge, David M
2016-02-01
Species distribution models are valuable tools in studies of biogeography, ecology, and climate change and have been used to inform conservation and ecosystem management. However, species distribution models typically incorporate only climatic variables and species presence data. Model development or validation rarely considers functional components of species traits or other types of biological data. We implemented a species distribution model (Maxent) to predict global climate habitat suitability for Grass Carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella). We then tested the relationship between the degree of climate habitat suitability predicted by Maxent and the individual growth rates of both wild (N = 17) and stocked (N = 51) Grass Carp populations using correlation analysis. The Grass Carp Maxent model accurately reflected the global occurrence data (AUC = 0.904). Observations of Grass Carp growth rate covered six continents and ranged from 0.19 to 20.1 g day(-1). Species distribution model predictions were correlated (r = 0.5, 95% CI (0.03, 0.79)) with observed growth rates for wild Grass Carp populations but were not correlated (r = -0.26, 95% CI (-0.5, 0.012)) with stocked populations. Further, a review of the literature indicates that the few studies for other species that have previously assessed the relationship between the degree of predicted climate habitat suitability and species functional traits have also discovered significant relationships. Thus, species distribution models may provide inferences beyond just where a species may occur, providing a useful tool to understand the linkage between species distributions and underlying biological mechanisms.
Seabloom, Eric W.; Borer, Elizabeth T.; Buckley, Yvonne M.; Cleland, Elsa E.; Davies, Kendi F.; Firn, Jennifer; Harpole, W. Stanley; Hautier, Yann; Lind, Eric M.; MacDougall, Andrew S.; Orrock, John L.; Prober, Suzanne M.; Adler, Peter B.; Anderson, T. Michael; Bakker, Jonathan D.; Biederman, Lori A.; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Brown, Cynthia S.; Brudvig, Lars A.; Cadotte, Marc; Chu, Chengjin; Cottingham, Kathryn L.; Crawley, Michael J.; Damschen, Ellen I.; Dantonio, Carla M.; DeCrappeo, Nicole M.; Du, Guozhen; Fay, Philip A.; Frater, Paul; Gruner, Daniel S.; Hagenah, Nicole; Hector, Andy; Hillebrand, Helmut; Hofmockel, Kirsten S.; Humphries, Hope C.; Jin, Virginia L.; Kay, Adam; Kirkman, Kevin P.; Klein, Julia A.; Knops, Johannes M. H.; La Pierre, Kimberly J.; Ladwig, Laura; Lambrinos, John G.; Li, Qi; Li, Wei; Marushia, Robin; McCulley, Rebecca L.; Melbourne, Brett A.; Mitchell, Charles E.; Moore, Joslin L.; Morgan, John; Mortensen, Brent; O'Halloran, Lydia R.; Pyke, David A.; Risch, Anita C.; Sankaran, Mahesh; Schuetz, Martin; Simonsen, Anna; Smith, Melinda D.; Stevens, Carly J.; Sullivan, Lauren; Wolkovich, Elizabeth; Wragg, Peter D.; Wright, Justin; Yang, Louie
2015-01-01
Exotic species dominate many communities; however the functional significance of species' biogeographic origin remains highly contentious. This debate is fuelled in part by the lack of globally replicated, systematic data assessing the relationship between species provenance, function and response to perturbations. We examined the abundance of native and exotic plant species at 64 grasslands in 13 countries, and at a subset of the sites we experimentally tested native and exotic species responses to two fundamental drivers of invasion, mineral nutrient supplies and vertebrate herbivory. Exotic species are six times more likely to dominate communities than native species. Furthermore, while experimental nutrient addition increases the cover and richness of exotic species, nutrients decrease native diversity and cover. Native and exotic species also differ in their response to vertebrate consumer exclusion. These results suggest that species origin has functional significance, and that eutrophication will lead to increased exotic dominance in grasslands. PMID:26173623
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L. Marziali
2013-09-01
Full Text Available The response of 443 chironomid species to water temperature was analyzed, with the aim of defining their thermal optimum, tolerance limits and thermal habitat. The database included 4442 samples mainly from Italian river catchments collected from the 1950s up to date. Thermal preferences were calculated separately for larval and pupal specimens and for different habitats: high altitude and lowland lakes in the Alpine ecoregion; lowland lakes in the Mediterranean ecoregion; heavily modified water bodies; kryal, krenal, rhithral and potamal in running waters. Optimum response was calculated as mean water temperature, weighted by species abundances; tolerance as weighted standard deviation; skewness and kurtosis as 3rd and 4th moment statistics. The responses were fitted to normal uni- or plurimodal Gaussian models. Cold stenothermal species showed: i unimodal response, ii tolerance for a narrow temperature range, iii optima closed to their minimum temperature values, iv leptokurtic response. Thermophilous species showed: i optima at different temperature values, ii wider tolerance, iii optima near their maximum temperature values, iv platikurtic response, often fitting a plurimodal model. As expected, lower optima values and narrower tolerance were obtained for kryal and krenal, than for rhithral, potamal and lakes. Thermal response curves were produced for each species and were discussed according to species distribution (i.e. altitudinal range in running water and water depth in lakes, voltinism and phylogeny. Thermal optimum and tolerance limits and the definition of the thermal habitat of species can help predicting the impact of global warming on freshwater ecosystems.
Species’ traits help predict small mammal responses to habitat homogenization by an invasive grass
Ceradini, Joseph P.; Chalfoun, Anna D.
2017-01-01
Invasive plants can negatively affect native species, however, the strength, direction, and shape of responses may vary depending on the type of habitat alteration and the natural history of native species. To prioritize conservation of vulnerable species, it is therefore critical to effectively predict species’ responses to invasive plants, which may be facilitated by a framework based on species’ traits. We studied the population and community responses of small mammals and changes in habitat heterogeneity across a gradient of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) cover, a widespread invasive plant in North America. We live-trapped small mammals over two summers and assessed the effect of cheatgrass on native small mammal abundance, richness, and species-specific and trait-based occupancy, while accounting for detection probability and other key habitat elements. Abundance was only estimated for the most common species, deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus). All species were pooled for the trait-based occupancy analysis to quantify the ability of small mammal traits (habitat association, mode of locomotion, and diet) to predict responses to cheatgrass invasion. Habitat heterogeneity decreased with cheatgrass cover. Deer mouse abundance increased marginally with cheatgrass. Species richness did not vary with cheatgrass, however, pocket mouse (Perognathus spp.) and harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys spp.) occupancy tended to decrease and increase, respectively, with cheatgrass cover, suggesting a shift in community composition. Cheatgrass had little effect on occupancy for deer mice, 13-lined ground squirrels (Spermophilus tridecemlineatus), and Ord's kangaroo rat (Dipodomys ordii). Species’ responses to cheatgrass primarily corresponded with our a priori predictions based on species’ traits. The probability of occupancy varied significantly with a species’ habitat association but not with diet or mode of locomotion. When considered within the context of a rapid
Predicting the geographical distribution of two invasive termite species from occurrence data.
Tonini, Francesco; Divino, Fabio; Lasinio, Giovanna Jona; Hochmair, Hartwig H; Scheffrahn, Rudolf H
2014-10-01
Predicting the potential habitat of species under both current and future climate change scenarios is crucial for monitoring invasive species and understanding a species' response to different environmental conditions. Frequently, the only data available on a species is the location of its occurrence (presence-only data). Using occurrence records only, two models were used to predict the geographical distribution of two destructive invasive termite species, Coptotermes gestroi (Wasmann) and Coptotermes formosanus Shiraki. The first model uses a Bayesian linear logistic regression approach adjusted for presence-only data while the second one is the widely used maximum entropy approach (Maxent). Results show that the predicted distributions of both C. gestroi and C. formosanus are strongly linked to urban development. The impact of future scenarios such as climate warming and population growth on the biotic distribution of both termite species was also assessed. Future climate warming seems to affect their projected probability of presence to a lesser extent than population growth. The Bayesian logistic approach outperformed Maxent consistently in all models according to evaluation criteria such as model sensitivity and ecological realism. The importance of further studies for an explicit treatment of residual spatial autocorrelation and a more comprehensive comparison between both statistical approaches is suggested.
Predicting continental-scale patterns of bird species richness with spatially explicit models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rahbek, Carsten; Gotelli, Nicholas J; Colwell, Robert K
2007-01-01
the extraordinary diversity of avian species in the montane tropics, the most species-rich region on Earth. Our findings imply that correlative climatic models substantially underestimate the importance of historical factors and small-scale niche-driven assembly processes in shaping contemporary species-richness......The causes of global variation in species richness have been debated for nearly two centuries with no clear resolution in sight. Competing hypotheses have typically been evaluated with correlative models that do not explicitly incorporate the mechanisms responsible for biotic diversity gradients....... Here, we employ a fundamentally different approach that uses spatially explicit Monte Carlo models of the placement of cohesive geographical ranges in an environmentally heterogeneous landscape. These models predict species richness of endemic South American birds (2248 species) measured...
Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction.
Baker, Christopher M; Gordon, Ascelin; Bode, Michael
2017-04-01
Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone-predator reintroductions: wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park and dingoes (Canis dingo) to a national park in Australia. Although previous methods for predicting ecosystem responses to such interventions focused on predicting changes around a given equilibrium, we used Lotka-Volterra equations to predict changing abundances through time. We applied our method to interaction networks for wolves in Yellowstone National Park and for dingoes in Australia. Our model replicated the observed dynamics in Yellowstone National Park and produced a larger range of potential outcomes for the dingo network. However, we also found that changes in small vertebrates or invertebrates gave a good indication about the potential future state of the system. Our method allowed us to predict when the systems were far from equilibrium. Our results showed that the method can also be used to predict which species may increase or decrease following a reintroduction and can identify species that are important to monitor (i.e., species whose changes in abundance give extra insight into broad changes in the system). Ensemble ecosystem modeling can also be applied to assess the ecosystem-wide implications of other types of interventions including assisted migration, biocontrol, and invasive species eradication. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.
Responses to Projected Changes in Climate and UV-B at the Species Level
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Callaghan, Terry V. [Abisko Scientific Research Station, Abisko (Sweden); Bjoern, Lars Olof [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Cell and Organism Biology; Cernov, Yuri [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). A.N. Severtsov Inst. of Evolutionary Morphology and Animal Ecology] (and others)
2004-11-01
birds previously associated with areas south of the treeline have been recorded. In contrast, almost all Arctic breeding bird species are declining and models predict further quite dramatic reductions of the populations of tundra birds due to warming. Species-climate response surface models predict potential future ranges of current Arctic species that are often markedly reduced and displaced northwards in response to warming. In contrast, invertebrates and microorganisms are very likely to quickly expand their ranges northwards into the Arctic.
Predicting species-specific responses of fungi to climatic variation using historical records.
Diez, Jeffrey M; James, Timothy Y; McMunn, Marshall; Ibáñez, Inés
2013-10-01
Although striking changes have been documented in plant and animal phenology over the past century, less is known about how the fungal kingdom's phenology has been changing. A few recent studies have documented changes in fungal fruiting in Europe in the last few decades, but the geographic and taxonomic extent of these changes, the mechanisms behind these changes, and their relationships to climate are not well understood. Here, we analyzed herbarium data of 274 species of fungi from Michigan to test the hypotheses that fruiting times of fungi depend on annual climate and that responses depend on taxonomic and functional groups. We show that the fungal community overall fruits later in warmer and drier years, which has led to a shift toward later fruiting dates for autumn-fruiting species, consistent with existing evidence. However, we also show that these effects are highly variable among species and are partly explained by basic life-history characteristics. Resulting differences in climate sensitivities are expected to affect community structure as climate changes. This study provides a unique picture of the climate dependence of fungal phenology in North America and an approach for quantifying how individual species and broader fungal communities will respond to ongoing climate change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Bleaching response of coral species in the context of assemblage response
Swain, Timothy D.; DuBois, Emily; Goldberg, Scott J.; Backman, Vadim; Marcelino, Luisa A.
2017-06-01
Caribbean coral reefs are declining due to a mosaic of local and global stresses, including climate change-induced thermal stress. Species and assemblage responses differ due to factors that are not easily identifiable or quantifiable. We calculated a novel species-specific metric of coral bleaching response, taxon- α and - β, which relates the response of a species to that of its assemblages for 16 species over 18 assemblages. By contextualizing species responses within the response of their assemblages, the effects of environmental factors are removed and intrinsic differences among taxa are revealed. Most corals experience either a saturation response, overly sensitive to weak stress ( α > 0) but under-responsive compared to assemblage bleaching ( β bleaching ( β > 1). This metric may help reveal key factors of bleaching susceptibility and identify species as targets for conservation.
Schultner, J; Kitaysky, A S; Gabrielsen, G W; Hatch, S A; Bech, C
2013-11-22
Life-history strategies describe that 'slow'- in contrast to 'fast'-living species allocate resources cautiously towards reproduction to enhance survival. Recent evidence suggests that variation in strategies exists not only among species but also among populations of the same species. Here, we examined the effect of experimentally induced stress on resource allocation of breeding seabirds in two populations with contrasting life-history strategies: slow-living Pacific and fast-living Atlantic black-legged kittiwakes. We tested the hypothesis that reproductive responses in kittiwakes under stress reflect their life-history strategies. We predicted that in response to stress, Pacific kittiwakes reduce investment in reproduction compared with Atlantic kittiwakes. We exposed chick-rearing kittiwakes to a short-term (3-day) period of increased exogenous corticosterone (CORT), a hormone that is released during food shortages. We examined changes in baseline CORT levels, parental care and effects on offspring. We found that kittiwakes from the two populations invested differently in offspring when facing stress. In response to elevated CORT, Pacific kittiwakes reduced nest attendance and deserted offspring more readily than Atlantic kittiwakes. We observed lower chick growth, a higher stress response in offspring and lower reproductive success in response to CORT implantation in Pacific kittiwakes, whereas the opposite occurred in the Atlantic. Our findings support the hypothesis that life-history strategies predict short-term responses of individuals to stress within a species. We conclude that behaviour and physiology under stress are consistent with trade-off priorities as predicted by life-history theory. We encourage future studies to consider the pivotal role of life-history strategies when interpreting inter-population differences of animal responses to stressful environmental events.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sarah J Thompson
Full Text Available Climate change is facilitating rapid changes in the composition and distribution of vegetation at northern latitudes, raising questions about the responses of wildlife that rely on arctic ecosystems. One widely observed change occurring in arctic tundra ecosystems is an increasing dominance of deciduous shrub vegetation. Our goals were to examine the tolerance of arctic-nesting bird species to existing gradients of vegetation along the boreal forest-tundra ecotone, to predict the abundance of species across different heights and densities of shrubs, and to identify species that will be most or least responsive to ongoing expansion of shrubs in tundra ecosystems. We conducted 1,208 point counts on 12 study blocks from 2012-2014 in northwestern Alaska, using repeated surveys to account for imperfect detection of birds. We considered the importance of shrub height, density of low and tall shrubs (i.e. shrubs >0.5 m tall, percent of ground cover attributed to shrubs (including dwarf shrubs <0.5 m tall, and percent of herbaceous plant cover in predicting bird abundance. Among 17 species considered, only gray-cheeked thrush (Catharus minimus abundance was associated with the highest values of all shrub metrics in its top predictive model. All other species either declined in abundance in response to one or more shrub metrics or reached a threshold where further increases in shrubs did not contribute to greater abundance. In many instances the relationship between avian abundance and shrubs was nonlinear, with predicted abundance peaking at moderate values of the covariate, then declining at high values. In particular, a large number of species were responsive to increasing values of average shrub height with six species having highest abundance at near-zero values of shrub height and abundance of four other species decreasing once heights reached moderate values (≤ 33 cm. Our findings suggest that increases in shrub cover and density will negatively
Sexual selection predicts advancement of avian spring migration in response to climate change
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Spottiswoode, Claire N; Tøttrup, Anders P; Coppack, Timothy
2006-01-01
Global warming has led to earlier spring arrival of migratory birds, but the extent of this advancement varies greatly among species, and it remains uncertain to what degree these changes are phenotypically plastic responses or microevolutionary adaptations to changing environmental conditions. We...... suggest that sexual selection could help to understand this variation, since early spring arrival of males is favoured by female choice. Climate change could weaken the strength of natural selection opposing sexual selection for early migration, which would predict greatest advancement in species...... in the timing of first-arriving individuals, suggesting that selection has not only acted on protandrous males. These results suggest that sexual selection may have an impact on the responses of organisms to climate change, and knowledge of a species' mating system might help to inform attempts at predicting...
Schoenfelder, Erin N.; Sandler, Irwin N.; Millsap, Roger E.; Wolchik, Sharlene A.; Berkel, Cady; Ayers, Timothy S.
2013-01-01
The study developed a multi-dimensional measure to assess participant responsiveness to a preventive intervention, and applied this measure to study how participant baseline characteristics predict responsiveness and how responsiveness predicts program outcomes. The study was conducted with caregivers who participated in the parenting-focused component of the Family Bereavement Program (FBP), a prevention program for families that have experienced parental death. The sample consisted of 89 ca...
Transcriptional responses of Treponema denticola to other oral bacterial species.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Juni Sarkar
Full Text Available The classic organization by Socransky and coworkers categorized the oral bacteria of the subgingival plaque into different complexes. Treponema denticola, Porphyromonas gingivalis and Tannerella forsythia are grouped into the red complex that is highly correlated with periodontal disease. Socransky's work closely associates red with orange complex species such as Fusobacterium nucleatum and Prevotella intermedia but not with members of the other complexes. While the relationship between species contained by these complexes is in part supported by their ability to physically attach to each other, the physiological consequences of these interactions and associations are less clear. In this study, we employed T. denticola as a model organism to analyze contact-dependent responses to interactions with species belonging to the same complex (P. gingivalis and T. forsythia, the closely associated orange complex (using F. nucleatum and P. intermedia as representatives and the unconnected yellow complex (using Streptococcus sanguinis and S. gordonii as representatives. RNA was extracted from T. denticola alone as well as after pairwise co-incubation for 5 hrs with representatives of the different complexes, and the respective gene expression profiles were determined using microarrays. Numerous genes related to motility, metabolism, transport, outer membrane and hypothetical proteins were differentially regulated in T. denticola in the presence of the tested partner species. Further analysis revealed a significant overlap in the affected genes and we identified a general response to the presence of other species, those specific to two of the three complexes as well as individual complexes. Most interestingly, many predicted major antigens (e.g. flagella, Msp, CTLP were suppressed in responses that included red complex species indicating that the presence of the most closely associated species induces immune-evasive strategies. In summary, the data
Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species
Zimmermann, N.E.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Edwards, T.C.; Meier, E.S.; Thuiller, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Schmatz, D.R.; Pearman, P.B.
2009-01-01
Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D2, +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.
SeqAPASS: Predicting chemical susceptibility to threatened/endangered species
Conservation of a molecular target across species can be used as a line-of-evidence to predict the likelihood of chemical susceptibility. The web-based Sequence Alignment to Predict Across Species Susceptibility (SeqAPASS; https://seqapass.epa.gov/seqapass/) application was devel...
Predictions For New, Exotic Actinide Species
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pyykko, P.
2002-01-01
The approach. New, simple chemical species can be predicted by studying isoelectronic series using ab initio quantum chemistry. We currently use in most cases relativistic pseudopotentials and handle the electron correlation using density functional theory (DFT) or wave-function-based methods, from MP2 to CCSD(T). Typical codes are Gaussian 98, Turbomole or MolCas. For full four-component Dirac-Fock calculations, the DREAMS code of K. G. Dyall has been utilized. For mapping out the possible new species, complete maps of all possibilities are made, whenever possible, and the new species typically occur along the coast-line of the 'island of stability' of already known species
Wemheuer, Franziska; Kaiser, Kristin; Karlovsky, Petr; Daniel, Rolf; Vidal, Stefan; Wemheuer, Bernd
2017-01-01
Endophytic bacteria are critical for plant growth and health. However, compositional and functional responses of bacterial endophyte communities towards agricultural practices are still poorly understood. Hence, we analyzed the influence of fertilizer application and mowing frequency on bacterial endophytes in three agriculturally important grass species. For this purpose, we examined bacterial endophytic communities in aerial plant parts of Dactylis glomerata L., Festuca rubra L., and Lolium perenne L. by pyrotag sequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA genes over two consecutive years. Although management regimes influenced endophyte communities, observed responses were grass species-specific. This might be attributed to several bacteria specifically associated with a single grass species. We further predicted functional profiles from obtained 16S rRNA data. These profiles revealed that predicted abundances of genes involved in plant growth promotion or nitrogen metabolism differed between grass species and between management regimes. Moreover, structural and functional community patterns showed no correlation to each other indicating that plant species-specific selection of endophytes is driven by functional rather than phylogenetic traits. The unique combination of 16S rRNA data and functional profiles provided a holistic picture of compositional and functional responses of bacterial endophytes in agricultural relevant grass species towards management practices.
Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pearson, R. G.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Bastos Araujo, Miguel
2006-01-01
Aim Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or 'bioclimate envelope') modelling, yet the effects of using different niche-based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions...
Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.
Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J
2012-01-19
Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.
Predicting behavioural responses to novel organisms: state-dependent detection theory.
Trimmer, Pete C; Ehlman, Sean M; Sih, Andrew
2017-01-25
Human activity alters natural habitats for many species. Understanding variation in animals' behavioural responses to these changing environments is critical. We show how signal detection theory can be used within a wider framework of state-dependent modelling to predict behavioural responses to a major environmental change: novel, exotic species. We allow thresholds for action to be a function of reserves, and demonstrate how optimal thresholds can be calculated. We term this framework 'state-dependent detection theory' (SDDT). We focus on behavioural and fitness outcomes when animals continue to use formerly adaptive thresholds following environmental change. In a simple example, we show that exposure to novel animals which appear dangerous-but are actually safe-(e.g. ecotourists) can have catastrophic consequences for 'prey' (organisms that respond as if the new organisms are predators), significantly increasing mortality even when the novel species is not predatory. SDDT also reveals that the effect on reproduction can be greater than the effect on lifespan. We investigate factors that influence the effect of novel organisms, and address the potential for behavioural adjustments (via evolution or learning) to recover otherwise reduced fitness. Although effects of environmental change are often difficult to predict, we suggest that SDDT provides a useful route ahead. © 2017 The Author(s).
Predicting behavioural responses to novel organisms: state-dependent detection theory
Sih, Andrew
2017-01-01
Human activity alters natural habitats for many species. Understanding variation in animals' behavioural responses to these changing environments is critical. We show how signal detection theory can be used within a wider framework of state-dependent modelling to predict behavioural responses to a major environmental change: novel, exotic species. We allow thresholds for action to be a function of reserves, and demonstrate how optimal thresholds can be calculated. We term this framework ‘state-dependent detection theory’ (SDDT). We focus on behavioural and fitness outcomes when animals continue to use formerly adaptive thresholds following environmental change. In a simple example, we show that exposure to novel animals which appear dangerous—but are actually safe—(e.g. ecotourists) can have catastrophic consequences for ‘prey’ (organisms that respond as if the new organisms are predators), significantly increasing mortality even when the novel species is not predatory. SDDT also reveals that the effect on reproduction can be greater than the effect on lifespan. We investigate factors that influence the effect of novel organisms, and address the potential for behavioural adjustments (via evolution or learning) to recover otherwise reduced fitness. Although effects of environmental change are often difficult to predict, we suggest that SDDT provides a useful route ahead. PMID:28100814
Phylogeny and species traits predict bird detectability
Solymos, Peter; Matsuoka, Steven M.; Stralberg, Diana; Barker, Nicole K. S.; Bayne, Erin M.
2018-01-01
Avian acoustic communication has resulted from evolutionary pressures and ecological constraints. We therefore expect that auditory detectability in birds might be predictable by species traits and phylogenetic relatedness. We evaluated the relationship between phylogeny, species traits, and field‐based estimates of the two processes that determine species detectability (singing rate and detection distance) for 141 bird species breeding in boreal North America. We used phylogenetic mixed models and cross‐validation to compare the relative merits of using trait data only, phylogeny only, or the combination of both to predict detectability. We found a strong phylogenetic signal in both singing rates and detection distances; however the strength of phylogenetic effects was less than expected under Brownian motion evolution. The evolution of behavioural traits that determine singing rates was found to be more labile, leaving more room for species to evolve independently, whereas detection distance was mostly determined by anatomy (i.e. body size) and thus the laws of physics. Our findings can help in disentangling how complex ecological and evolutionary mechanisms have shaped different aspects of detectability in boreal birds. Such information can greatly inform single‐ and multi‐species models but more work is required to better understand how to best correct possible biases in phylogenetic diversity and other community metrics.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Giovanni Rapacciuolo
Full Text Available Conservation planners often wish to predict how species distributions will change in response to environmental changes. Species distribution models (SDMs are the primary tool for making such predictions. Many methods are widely used; however, they all make simplifying assumptions, and predictions can therefore be subject to high uncertainty. With global change well underway, field records of observed range shifts are increasingly being used for testing SDM transferability. We used an unprecedented distribution dataset documenting recent range changes of British vascular plants, birds, and butterflies to test whether correlative SDMs based on climate change provide useful approximations of potential distribution shifts. We modelled past species distributions from climate using nine single techniques and a consensus approach, and projected the geographical extent of these models to a more recent time period based on climate change; we then compared model predictions with recent observed distributions in order to estimate the temporal transferability and prediction accuracy of our models. We also evaluated the relative effect of methodological and taxonomic variation on the performance of SDMs. Models showed good transferability in time when assessed using widespread metrics of accuracy. However, models had low accuracy to predict where occupancy status changed between time periods, especially for declining species. Model performance varied greatly among species within major taxa, but there was also considerable variation among modelling frameworks. Past climatic associations of British species distributions retain a high explanatory power when transferred to recent time--due to their accuracy to predict large areas retained by species--but fail to capture relevant predictors of change. We strongly emphasize the need for caution when using SDMs to predict shifts in species distributions: high explanatory power on temporally-independent records
Chunco, Amanda J.; Phimmachak, Somphouthone; Sivongxay, Niane; Stuart, Bryan L.
2013-01-01
The Lao newt (Laotriton laoensis) is a recently described species currently known only from northern Laos. Little is known about the species, but it is threatened as a result of overharvesting. We integrated field survey results with climate and altitude data to predict the geographic distribution of this species using the niche modeling program Maxent, and we validated these predictions by using interviews with local residents to confirm model predictions of presence and absence. The results of the validated Maxent models were then used to characterize the environmental conditions of areas predicted suitable for L. laoensis. Finally, we overlaid the resulting model with a map of current national protected areas in Laos to determine whether or not any land predicted to be suitable for this species is coincident with a national protected area. We found that both area under the curve (AUC) values and interview data provided strong support for the predictive power of these models, and we suggest that interview data could be used more widely in species distribution niche modeling. Our results further indicated that this species is mostly likely geographically restricted to high altitude regions (i.e., over 1,000 m elevation) in northern Laos and that only a minute fraction of suitable habitat is currently protected. This work thus emphasizes that increased protection efforts, including listing this species as endangered and the establishment of protected areas in the region predicted to be suitable for L. laoensis, are urgently needed. PMID:23555808
Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo
2015-06-01
The rapid ecological shifts that are occurring due to climate change present major challenges for managers and policymakers and, therefore, are one of the main concerns for environmental modelers and evolutionary biologists. Species distribution models (SDM) are appropriate tools for assessing the relationship between species distribution and environmental conditions, so being customarily used to forecast the biogeographical response of species to climate change. A serious limitation of species distribution models when forecasting the effects of climate change is that they normally assume that species behavior and climatic tolerances will remain constant through time. In this study, we propose a new methodology, based on fuzzy logic, useful for incorporating the potential capacity of species to adapt to new conditions into species distribution models. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to include different behavioral responses of species when predicting the effects of climate change on species distribution. Favorability models offered in this study show two extremes: one considering that the species will not modify its present behavior, and another assuming that the species will take full advantage of the possibilities offered by an increase in environmental favorability. This methodology may mean a more realistic approach to the assessment of the consequences of global change on species' distribution and conservation. Overlooking the potential of species' phenotypical plasticity may under- or overestimate the predicted response of species to changes in environmental drivers and its effects on species distribution. Using this approach, we could reinforce the science behind conservation planning in the current situation of rapid climate change.
A cost minimisation and Bayesian inference model predicts startle reflex modulation across species.
Bach, Dominik R
2015-04-07
In many species, rapid defensive reflexes are paramount to escaping acute danger. These reflexes are modulated by the state of the environment. This is exemplified in fear-potentiated startle, a more vigorous startle response during conditioned anticipation of an unrelated threatening event. Extant explanations of this phenomenon build on descriptive models of underlying psychological states, or neural processes. Yet, they fail to predict invigorated startle during reward anticipation and instructed attention, and do not explain why startle reflex modulation evolved. Here, we fill this lacuna by developing a normative cost minimisation model based on Bayesian optimality principles. This model predicts the observed pattern of startle modification by rewards, punishments, instructed attention, and several other states. Moreover, the mathematical formalism furnishes predictions that can be tested experimentally. Comparing the model with existing data suggests a specific neural implementation of the underlying computations which yields close approximations to the optimal solution under most circumstances. This analysis puts startle modification into the framework of Bayesian decision theory and predictive coding, and illustrates the importance of an adaptive perspective to interpret defensive behaviour across species. Copyright © 2015 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Stress responsiveness predicts individual variation in mate selectivity.
Vitousek, Maren N; Romero, L Michael
2013-06-15
Steroid hormones, including glucocorticoids, mediate a variety of behavioral and physiological processes. Circulating hormone concentrations vary substantially within populations, and although hormone titers predict reproductive success in several species, little is known about how individual variation in circulating hormone concentrations is linked with most reproductive behaviors in free-living organisms. Mate choice is an important and often costly component of reproduction that also varies substantially within populations. We examined whether energetically costly mate selection behavior in female Galápagos marine iguanas (Amblyrhynchus cristatus) was associated with individual variation in the concentrations of hormones previously shown to differ between reproductive and non-reproductive females during the breeding season (corticosterone and testosterone). Stress-induced corticosterone levels - which are suppressed in female marine iguanas during reproduction - were individually repeatable throughout the seven-week breeding period. Mate selectivity was strongly predicted by individual variation in stress-induced corticosterone: reproductive females that secreted less corticosterone in response to a standardized stressor assessed more displaying males. Neither baseline corticosterone nor testosterone predicted variation in mate selectivity. Scaled body mass was not significantly associated with mate selectivity, but females that began the breeding period in lower body condition showed a trend towards being less selective about potential mates. These results provide the first evidence that individual variation in the corticosterone stress response is associated with how selective females are in their choice of a mate, an important contributor to fitness in many species. Future research is needed to determine the functional basis of this association, and whether transient acute increases in circulating corticosterone directly mediate mate choice behaviors
Phylogeny is a powerful tool for predicting plant biomass responses to nitrogen enrichment.
Wooliver, Rachel C; Marion, Zachary H; Peterson, Christopher R; Potts, Brad M; Senior, John K; Bailey, Joseph K; Schweitzer, Jennifer A
2017-08-01
Increasing rates of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) enrichment to soils often lead to the dominance of nitrophilic plant species and reduce plant diversity in natural ecosystems. Yet, we lack a framework to predict which species will be winners or losers in soil N enrichment scenarios, a framework that current literature suggests should integrate plant phylogeny, functional tradeoffs, and nutrient co-limitation. Using a controlled fertilization experiment, we quantified biomass responses to N enrichment for 23 forest tree species within the genus Eucalyptus that are native to Tasmania, Australia. Based on previous work with these species' responses to global change factors and theory on the evolution of plant resource-use strategies, we hypothesized that (1) growth responses to N enrichment are phylogenetically structured, (2) species with more resource-acquisitive functional traits have greater growth responses to N enrichment, and (3) phosphorus (P) limits growth responses to N enrichment differentially across species, wherein P enrichment increases growth responses to N enrichment more in some species than others. We built a hierarchical Bayesian model estimating effects of functional traits (specific leaf area, specific stem density, and specific root length) and P fertilization on species' biomass responses to N, which we then compared between lineages to determine whether phylogeny explains variation in responses to N. In concordance with literature on N limitation, a majority of species responded strongly and positively to N enrichment. Mean responses ranged three-fold, from 6.21 (E. pulchella) to 16.87 (E. delegatensis) percent increases in biomass per g N·m -2 ·yr -1 added. We identified a strong difference in responses to N between two phylogenetic lineages in the Eucalyptus subgenus Symphyomyrtus, suggesting that shared ancestry explains variation in N limitation. However, our model indicated that after controlling for phylogenetic non
A cost minimisation and Bayesian inference model predicts startle reflex modulation across species
Bach, Dominik R
2015-01-01
In many species, rapid defensive reflexes are paramount to escaping acute danger. These reflexes are modulated by the state of the environment. This is exemplified in fear-potentiated startle, a more vigorous startle response during conditioned anticipation of an unrelated threatening event. Extant explanations of this phenomenon build on descriptive models of underlying psychological states, or neural processes. Yet, they fail to predict invigorated startle during reward anticipation and ins...
Freeman, Benjamin G.; Class Freeman, Alexandra M.
2014-01-01
Temperate-zone species have responded to warming temperatures by shifting their distributions poleward and upslope. Thermal tolerance data suggests that tropical species may respond to warming temperatures even more strongly than temperate-zone species, but this prediction has yet to be tested. We addressed this data gap by conducting resurveys to measure distributional responses to temperature increases in the elevational limits of the avifaunas of two geographically and faunally independent New Guinean mountains, Mt. Karimui and Karkar Island, 47 and 44 y after they were originally surveyed. Although species richness is roughly five times greater on mainland Mt. Karimui than oceanic Karkar Island, distributional shifts at both sites were similar: upslope shifts averaged 113 m (Mt. Karimui) and 152 m (Karkar Island) for upper limits and 95 m (Mt. Karimui) and 123 m (Karkar Island) for lower limits. We incorporated these results into a metaanalysis to compare distributional responses of tropical species with those of temperate-zone species, finding that average upslope shifts in tropical montane species match local temperature increases significantly more closely than in temperate-zone montane species. That tropical species appear to be strong responders has global conservation implications and provides empirical support to hitherto untested models that predict widespread extinctions in upper-elevation tropical endemics with small ranges. PMID:24550460
[Effects of sampling plot number on tree species distribution prediction under climate change].
Liang, Yu; He, Hong-Shi; Wu, Zhi-Wei; Li, Xiao-Na; Luo, Xu
2013-05-01
Based on the neutral landscapes under different degrees of landscape fragmentation, this paper studied the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale under climate change. The tree species distribution was predicted by the coupled modeling approach which linked an ecosystem process model with a forest landscape model, and three contingent scenarios and one reference scenario of sampling plot numbers were assumed. The differences between the three scenarios and the reference scenario under different degrees of landscape fragmentation were tested. The results indicated that the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution depended on the tree species life history attributes. For the generalist species, the prediction of their distribution at landscape scale needed more plots. Except for the extreme specialist, landscape fragmentation degree also affected the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction. With the increase of simulation period, the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale could be changed. For generalist species, more plots are needed for the long-term simulation.
LaManna, Joseph A.; Martin, Thomas E.
2016-01-01
Behavioural responses to reduce predation risk might cause demographic ‘costs of fear’. Costs differ among species, but a conceptual framework to understand this variation is lacking. We use a life-history framework to tie together diverse traits and life stages to better understand interspecific variation in responses and costs. We used natural and experimental variation in predation risk to test phenotypic responses and associated demographic costs for 10 songbird species. Responses such as increased parental attentiveness yielded reduced development time and created benefits such as reduced predation probability. Yet, responses to increased risk also created demographic costs by reducing offspring production in the absence of direct predation. This cost of fear varied widely across species, but predictably with the probability of repeat breeding. Use of a life-history framework can aid our understanding of potential demographic costs from predation, both from responses to perceived risk and from direct predation mortality.
Models of alien species richness show moderate predictive accuracy and poor transferability
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
César Capinha
2018-06-01
Full Text Available Robust predictions of alien species richness are useful to assess global biodiversity change. Nevertheless, the capacity to predict spatial patterns of alien species richness remains largely unassessed. Using 22 data sets of alien species richness from diverse taxonomic groups and covering various parts of the world, we evaluated whether different statistical models were able to provide useful predictions of absolute and relative alien species richness, as a function of explanatory variables representing geographical, environmental and socio-economic factors. Five state-of-the-art count data modelling techniques were used and compared: Poisson and negative binomial generalised linear models (GLMs, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS, random forests (RF and boosted regression trees (BRT. We found that predictions of absolute alien species richness had a low to moderate accuracy in the region where the models were developed and a consistently poor accuracy in new regions. Predictions of relative richness performed in a superior manner in both geographical settings, but still were not good. Flexible tree ensembles-type techniques (RF and BRT were shown to be significantly better in modelling alien species richness than parametric linear models (such as GLM, despite the latter being more commonly applied for this purpose. Importantly, the poor spatial transferability of models also warrants caution in assuming the generality of the relationships they identify, e.g. by applying projections under future scenario conditions. Ultimately, our results strongly suggest that predictability of spatial variation in richness of alien species richness is limited. The somewhat more robust ability to rank regions according to the number of aliens they have (i.e. relative richness, suggests that models of aliens species richness may be useful for prioritising and comparing regions, but not for predicting exact species numbers.
Equal temperature-size responses of the sexes are widespread within arthropod species
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hirst, Andrew G.; Horne, Curtis; Atkinson, David
2015-01-01
Sexual size dimorphism (SSD) is often affected by environmental conditions, but the effect of temperature on SSD in ectotherms still requires rigorous investigation. We compared the plastic responses of size-at-maturity to temperature between males and females within 85 diverse arthropod species...... of animal body sizes, variation in degree of SSD and differences in the sign of the T-S response. We find no support for Rensch's rule, which predicts greater variation in male size, or indeed the reverse, greater female size variation. SSD shows no systematic temperature dependence in any of the 17...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mason J Ryan
Full Text Available Roughly 40% of amphibian species are in decline with habitat loss, disease, and climate change being the most cited threats. Heterogeneity of extrinsic (e.g. climate and intrinsic (e.g. local adaptations factors across a species' range should influence population response to climate change and other threats. Here we examine relative detectability changes for five direct-developing leaf litter frogs between 42-year sampling periods at one Lowland Tropical Forest site (51 m.a.s.l. and one Premontane Wet Forest site (1100 m.a.s.l. in southwest Costa Rica. We identify individualistic changes in relative detectability among populations between sampling periods at different elevations. Both common and rare species showed site-specific declines, and no species exhibited significant declines at both sites. Detection changes are correlated with changes in temperature, dry season rainfall, and leaf litter depth since 1969. Our study species share Least Concern conservation status, life history traits, and close phylogenetic relationship, yet their populations changed individualistically both within and among species. These results counter current views of the uniformity or predictability of amphibian decline response and suggest additional complexity for conservation decisions.
Potts, D. L.; Minor, R. L.; Braun, Z.; Barron-Gafford, G. A.
2012-12-01
Unlike the snowmelt-dominated hydroclimate of more northern mountainous regions, the hydroclimate of the Madrean sky islands is characterized by snowmelt and convective storms associated with the North American Monsoon. These mid-summer storms trigger biological activity and are important drivers of primary productivity. For example, at the highest elevations where mixed conifer forests occur, ecosystem carbon balance is influenced by monsoon rains. Whereas these storms' significance is increasingly recognized at the ecosystem scale, species-specific physiological responses to the monsoon are poorly known. Prior to and following monsoon onset, we measured pre-dawn and light-adapted chlorophyll fluorescence as well as photosynthetic light response in southwestern white pine (Pinus strobiformis), ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) in a Madrean sky island mixed conifer forest near Tucson, Arizona. Photochemical quenching (qp), an indicator of the proportion of open PSII reaction centers, was greatest in P. strobiformis and least in P. menziesii and increased in response to monsoon rains (repeated-measures ANOVA; species, F2,14 = 6.17, P = 0.012; time, F2,14= 8.17, P = 0.013). In contrast, non-photochemical quenching (qN), an indicator of heat dissipation ability, was greatest in P. ponderosa and least in P. menziesii, but was not influenced by monsoon onset (repeated-measures ANOVA; species, F2,12 = 4.18, P = 0.042). Estimated from leaf area-adjusted photosynthetic light response curves, maximum photosynthetic rate (Amax) was greatest in P. ponderosa and least in P. menziesii (repeated-measures ANOVA; species, F2,8= 40.8, P = 0.001). Surprisingly, while the monsoon positively influenced Amax among P. ponderosa and P. strobiformis, Amax of P. menziesii declined with monsoon onset (repeated-measures ANOVA; species x time, F2,8 = 13.8, P = 0.002). Calculated as the initial slope of the photosynthetic light response curve, light
Physiological response of selected eragrostis species to water ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Physiological response of selected eragrostis species to water-deficit stress. ... performing crop variety of Eragrostis tef under this stress, the responses of two varieties, ... Comparative study of closely related plant species might be a better ...
Non-climatic thermal adaptation: implications for species' responses to climate warming.
Marshall, David J; McQuaid, Christopher D; Williams, Gray A
2010-10-23
There is considerable interest in understanding how ectothermic animals may physiologically and behaviourally buffer the effects of climate warming. Much less consideration is being given to how organisms might adapt to non-climatic heat sources in ways that could confound predictions for responses of species and communities to climate warming. Although adaptation to non-climatic heat sources (solar and geothermal) seems likely in some marine species, climate warming predictions for marine ectotherms are largely based on adaptation to climatically relevant heat sources (air or surface sea water temperature). Here, we show that non-climatic solar heating underlies thermal resistance adaptation in a rocky-eulittoral-fringe snail. Comparisons of the maximum temperatures of the air, the snail's body and the rock substratum with solar irradiance and physiological performance show that the highest body temperature is primarily controlled by solar heating and re-radiation, and that the snail's upper lethal temperature exceeds the highest climatically relevant regional air temperature by approximately 22°C. Non-climatic thermal adaptation probably features widely among marine and terrestrial ectotherms and because it could enable species to tolerate climatic rises in air temperature, it deserves more consideration in general and for inclusion into climate warming models.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Swab, Rebecca Marie; Regan, Helen M.; Matthies, Diethart
2015-01-01
Organisms are projected to shift their distribution ranges under climate change. The typical way to assess range shifts is by species distribution models (SDMs), which predict species’ responses to climate based solely on projected climatic suitability. However, life history traits can impact...... species’ responses to shifting habitat suitability. Additionally, it remains unclear if differences in vital rates across populations within a species can offset or exacerbate the effects of predicted changes in climatic suitability on population viability. In order to obtain a fuller understanding...... of the response of one species to projected climatic changes, we coupled demographic processes with predicted changes in suitable habitat for the monocarpic thistle Carlina vulgaris across northern Europe. We first developed a life history model with species-specific average fecundity and survival rates...
New flux based dose–response relationships for ozone for European forest tree species
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Büker, P.; Feng, Z.; Uddling, J.; Briolat, A.; Alonso, R.; Braun, S.; Elvira, S.; Gerosa, G.; Karlsson, P.E.; Le Thiec, D.
2015-01-01
To derive O 3 dose–response relationships (DRR) for five European forest trees species and broadleaf deciduous and needleleaf tree plant functional types (PFTs), phytotoxic O 3 doses (PODy) were related to biomass reductions. PODy was calculated using a stomatal flux model with a range of cut-off thresholds (y) indicative of varying detoxification capacities. Linear regression analysis showed that DRR for PFT and individual tree species differed in their robustness. A simplified parameterisation of the flux model was tested and showed that for most non-Mediterranean tree species, this simplified model led to similarly robust DRR as compared to a species- and climate region-specific parameterisation. Experimentally induced soil water stress was not found to substantially reduce PODy, mainly due to the short duration of soil water stress periods. This study validates the stomatal O 3 flux concept and represents a step forward in predicting O 3 damage to forests in a spatially and temporally varying climate. - Highlights: • We present new ozone flux based dose–response relationships for European trees. • The model-based study accounted for the soil water effect on stomatal flux. • Different statistically derived ozone flux thresholds were applied. • Climate region specific parameterisation often outperformed simplified parameterisation. • Findings could help redefining critical levels for ozone effects on trees. - New stomatal flux based ozone dose–response relationships for tree species are derived for the regional risk assessment of ozone effects on European forest ecosystems.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
William B. Sutton
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1 evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2 using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus, Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi, Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia, Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei, and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch, whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.
Record, Sydne; Strecker, Angela; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Beaudrot, Lydia; Zarnetske, Phoebe; Belmaker, Jonathan; Gerstner, Beth
2018-01-01
There is ample evidence that biotic factors, such as biotic interactions and dispersal capacity, can affect species distributions and influence species' responses to climate change. However, little is known about how these factors affect predictions from species distribution models (SDMs) with respect to spatial grain and extent of the models. Understanding how spatial scale influences the effects of biological processes in SDMs is important because SDMs are one of the primary tools used by conservation biologists to assess biodiversity impacts of climate change. We systematically reviewed SDM studies published from 2003-2015 using ISI Web of Science searches to: (1) determine the current state and key knowledge gaps of SDMs that incorporate biotic interactions and dispersal; and (2) understand how choice of spatial scale may alter the influence of biological processes on SDM predictions. We used linear mixed effects models to examine how predictions from SDMs changed in response to the effects of spatial scale, dispersal, and biotic interactions. There were important biases in studies including an emphasis on terrestrial ecosystems in northern latitudes and little representation of aquatic ecosystems. Our results suggest that neither spatial extent nor grain influence projected climate-induced changes in species ranges when SDMs include dispersal or biotic interactions. We identified several knowledge gaps and suggest that SDM studies forecasting the effects of climate change should: 1) address broader ranges of taxa and locations; and 1) report the grain size, extent, and results with and without biological complexity. The spatial scale of analysis in SDMs did not affect estimates of projected range shifts with dispersal and biotic interactions. However, the lack of reporting on results with and without biological complexity precluded many studies from our analysis.
Depletion of heterogeneous source species pools predicts future invasion rates
Andrew M. Liebhold; Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Mark Kimberley; Jacqueline Beggs
2017-01-01
Predicting how increasing rates of global trade will result in new establishments of potentially damaging invasive species is a question of critical importance to the development of national and international policies aimed at minimizing future invasions. Centuries of historical movement and establishment of invading species may have depleted the supply of species...
Do predictions from Species Sensitivity Distributions match with field data?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smetanová, S.; Bláha, L.; Liess, M.; Schäfer, R.B.; Beketov, M.A.
2014-01-01
Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) is a statistical model that can be used to predict effects of contaminants on biological communities, but only few comparisons of this model with field studies have been conducted so far. In the present study we used measured pesticides concentrations from streams in Germany, France, and Finland, and we used SSD to calculate msPAF (multiple substance potentially affected fraction) values based on maximum toxic stress at localities. We compared these SSD-based predictions with the actual effects on stream invertebrates quantified by the SPEAR pesticides bioindicator. The results show that the msPAFs correlated well with the bioindicator, however, the generally accepted SSD threshold msPAF of 0.05 (5% of species are predicted to be affected) severely underestimated the observed effects (msPAF values causing significant effects are 2–1000-times lower). These results demonstrate that validation with field data is required to define the appropriate thresholds for SSD predictions. - Highlights: • We validated the statistical model Species Sensitivity Distribution with field data. • Good correlation was found between the model predictions and observed effects. • But, the generally accepted threshold msPAF 0.05 severely underestimated the effects. - Comparison of the SSD-based prediction with the field data evaluated with the SPEAR pesticides index shows that SSD threshold msPAF of 0.05 severely underestimates the effects observed in the field
Assembled cross-species perchlorate dose-response data
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This data set contains dose-response data for perchlorate exposure in multiple species. These data were assembled from peer-reviewed studies. Species included in...
Santos, Xavier; Badiane, Arnaud; Matos, Cátia
2016-01-01
Changes in habitat structure constitute a major factor explaining responses of reptiles to fire. However, few studies have examined habitat factors that covary with fire-history variables to explain reptile responses. We hypothesise that more complex habitats should support richer reptile communities, and that species-specific relative abundance should be related to particular habitat features. From spring 2012-2014, twenty-five transects were surveyed in the Albera Region (north-east Iberia). The vegetation structure was measured and the extent of habitat types in a 1000-m buffer around each transect calculated. Reptile-community metrics (species richness and reptile abundance) were related to fire history, vegetation structure, and habitat types, using generalized additive models. These metrics correlated with habitat-structure variables but not with fire history. The number of species increased with more complex habitats but decreased with pine-plantation abundance in the 1000-m buffer. We found contrasting responses among reptiles in terms of time since fire and those responses differed according to vegetation variables and habitat types. An unplanned fire in August 2012 provided the opportunity to compare reptile abundance values between pre-fire and the short term (1-2 years) after the fire. Most species exhibited a negative short-term response to the 2012 fire except Tarentola mauritanica, a gecko that inhabits large rocks, as opposed to other ground-dwelling species. In the reptiles studied, contrasting responses to time since fire are consistent with the habitat-accommodation model of succession. These differences are linked to specific microhabitat preferences and suggest that functional traits can be used to predict species-specific responses to fire.
The Sequence Alignment to Predict Across Species Susceptibility (SeqAPASS) tool was developed to address needs for rapid, cost effective methods of species extrapolation of chemical susceptibility. Specifically, the SeqAPASS tool compares the primary sequence (Level 1), functiona...
Multi-scale approach for predicting fish species distributions across coral reef seascapes.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Simon J Pittman
Full Text Available Two of the major limitations to effective management of coral reef ecosystems are a lack of information on the spatial distribution of marine species and a paucity of data on the interacting environmental variables that drive distributional patterns. Advances in marine remote sensing, together with the novel integration of landscape ecology and advanced niche modelling techniques provide an unprecedented opportunity to reliably model and map marine species distributions across many kilometres of coral reef ecosystems. We developed a multi-scale approach using three-dimensional seafloor morphology and across-shelf location to predict spatial distributions for five common Caribbean fish species. Seascape topography was quantified from high resolution bathymetry at five spatial scales (5-300 m radii surrounding fish survey sites. Model performance and map accuracy was assessed for two high performing machine-learning algorithms: Boosted Regression Trees (BRT and Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modelling (MaxEnt. The three most important predictors were geographical location across the shelf, followed by a measure of topographic complexity. Predictor contribution differed among species, yet rarely changed across spatial scales. BRT provided 'outstanding' model predictions (AUC = >0.9 for three of five fish species. MaxEnt provided 'outstanding' model predictions for two of five species, with the remaining three models considered 'excellent' (AUC = 0.8-0.9. In contrast, MaxEnt spatial predictions were markedly more accurate (92% map accuracy than BRT (68% map accuracy. We demonstrate that reliable spatial predictions for a range of key fish species can be achieved by modelling the interaction between the geographical location across the shelf and the topographic heterogeneity of seafloor structure. This multi-scale, analytic approach is an important new cost-effective tool to accurately delineate essential fish habitat and support
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barnes, P.W.; Flint, S.D.; Caldwell, M.M.
1990-01-01
The influence of ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation (280-320 nanometers) on the morphology of 12 common dicot and monocot crop or weed species was examined to determine whether any common responses could be found that might, in turn, be useful in predicting possible changes in competitive balance under solar UV-B enhancement. Under glasshouse conditions, UV-B exposure (simulating a 20% reduction in stratospheric ozone at Logan, Utah) was found to reduce leaf blade and internode lengths and increase leaf and axillary shoot production in several species. Overall, the directions of these trends were similar in the majority of species that exhibited a significant response. These morphological changes occurred without any significant reduction in total shoot dry matter production. There was no clear distinction in the response of crops and weeds, though monocots were found to be generally more responsive than dicots. Previous work in dense canopies has shown that the photomorphogenetic effects of UV-B alter leaf placement and thereby influence competition for light. Our results suggest that, under these conditions, changes in competitive balance resulting from increased UV-B might be expected more frequently when monocots are involved in mixtures, rather than mixtures of only dicots
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Le Roux, Xavier; Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Niboyet, Audrey
2016-01-01
Soil microbial diversity is huge and a few grams of soil contain more bacterial taxa than there are bird species on Earth. This high diversity often makes predicting the responses of soil bacteria to environmental change intractable and restricts our capacity to predict the responses of soil...... functions to global change. Here, using a long-term field experiment in a California grassland, we studied the main and interactive effects of three global change factors (increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen addition, and all their factorial combinations, based on global...
Predicting the presence and cover of management relevant invasive plant species on protected areas.
Iacona, Gwenllian; Price, Franklin D; Armsworth, Paul R
2016-01-15
Invasive species are a management concern on protected areas worldwide. Conservation managers need to predict infestations of invasive plants they aim to treat if they want to plan for long term management. Many studies predict the presence of invasive species, but predictions of cover are more relevant for management. Here we examined how predictors of invasive plant presence and cover differ across species that vary in their management priority. To do so, we used data on management effort and cover of invasive plant species on central Florida protected areas. Using a zero-inflated multiple regression framework, we showed that protected area features can predict the presence and cover of the focal species but the same features rarely explain both. There were several predictors of either presence or cover that were important across multiple species. Protected areas with three days of frost per year or fewer were more likely to have occurrences of four of the six focal species. When invasive plants were present, their proportional cover was greater on small preserves for all species, and varied with surrounding household density for three species. None of the predictive features were clearly related to whether species were prioritized for management or not. Our results suggest that predictors of cover and presence can differ both within and across species but do not covary with management priority. We conclude that conservation managers need to select predictors of invasion with care as species identity can determine the relationship between predictors of presence and the more management relevant predictors of cover. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Gunderson, Alex R; King, Emily E; Boyer, Kirsten; Tsukimura, Brian; Stillman, Jonathon H
2017-07-01
Anthropogenic global change is predicted to increase the physiological stress of organisms through changes in abiotic conditions such as temperature, pH, and pollution. However, organisms can also experience physiological stress through interactions with other species, especially parasites, predators, and competitors. The stress of species interactions could be an important driver of species' responses to global change as the composition of biological communities change through factors such as distributional and phenological shifts. Interactions between biotic and abiotic stressors could also induce non-linear physiological stress responses under global change. One of the primary means by which organisms deal with physiological stress is through the cellular stress response (CSR), which is broadly the upregulation of a conserved set of genes that facilitate the removal and repair of damaged macromolecules. Here, we present data on behavioral interactions and CSR gene expression for two competing species of intertidal zone porcelain crab (Petrolisthes cinctipes and Petrolisthes manimaculis). We found that P. cinctipes and P. manimaculis engage in more agonistic behaviors when interacting with heterospecifics than conspecifics; however, we found no evidence that heterospecific interactions induced a CSR in these species. In addition to our new data, we review the literature with respect to CSR induction via species interactions, focusing on predator-prey systems and heterospecific competition. We find extensive evidence for predators to induce cellular stress and aspects of the CSR in prey, even in the absence of direct physical contact between species. Effects of heterospecific competition on the CSR have been studied far less, but we do find evidence that agonistic interactions with heterospecifics can induce components of the CSR. Across all published studies, there is clear evidence that species interactions can lead to cellular stress and induction of the CSR
DuBois, P Mason; Shea, Tanner K; Claunch, Natalie M; Taylor, Emily N
2017-08-01
Thermal tolerance is an important variable in predictive models about the effects of global climate change on species distributions, yet the physiological mechanisms responsible for reduced performance at high temperatures in air-breathing vertebrates are not clear. We conducted an experiment to examine how oxygen affects three variables exhibited by ectotherms as they heat-gaping threshold, panting threshold, and loss of righting response (the latter indicating the critical thermal maximum)-in two lizard species along an elevational (and therefore environmental oxygen partial pressure) gradient. Oxygen partial pressure did not impact these variables in either species. We also exposed lizards at each elevation to severely hypoxic gas to evaluate their responses to hypoxia. Severely low oxygen partial pressure treatments significantly reduced the gaping threshold, panting threshold, and critical thermal maximum. Further, under these extreme hypoxic conditions, these variables were strongly and positively related to partial pressure of oxygen. In an elevation where both species overlapped, the thermal tolerance of the high elevation species was less affected by hypoxia than that of the low elevation species, suggesting the high elevation species may be adapted to lower oxygen partial pressures. In the high elevation species, female lizards had higher thermal tolerance than males. Our data suggest that oxygen impacts the thermal tolerance of lizards, but only under severely hypoxic conditions, possibly as a result of hypoxia-induced anapyrexia. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Guisan, Antoine; Rahbek, Carsten
2011-01-01
Two different approaches currently prevail for predicting spatial patterns of species assemblages. The first approach (macroecological modelling, MEM) focuses directly on realized properties of species assemblages, whereas the second approach (stacked species distribution modelling, S-SDM) starts...
Deville, Anne-Sophie; Grémillet, David; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Guillemain, Matthieu; Von Houwald, Friederike; Gardelli, Bruno; Béchet, Arnaud
2013-01-01
Accurate knowledge of the functional response of predators to prey density is essential for understanding food web dynamics, to parameterize mechanistic models of animal responses to environmental change, and for designing appropriate conservation measures. Greater flamingos (Phoenicopterus roseus), a flagship species of Mediterranean wetlands, primarily feed on Artemias (Artemia spp.) in commercial salt pans, an industry which may collapse for economic reasons. Flamingos also feed on alternative prey such as Chironomid larvae (e.g., Chironomid spp.) and rice seeds (Oryza sativa). However, the profitability of these food items for flamingos remains unknown. We determined the functional responses of flamingos feeding on Artemias, Chironomids, or rice. Experiments were conducted on 11 captive flamingos. For each food item, we offered different ranges of food densities, up to 13 times natural abundance. Video footage allowed estimating intake rates. Contrary to theoretical predictions for filter feeders, intake rates did not increase linearly with increasing food density (type I). Intake rates rather increased asymptotically with increasing food density (type II) or followed a sigmoid shape (type III). Hence, flamingos were not able to ingest food in direct proportion to their abundance, possibly because of unique bill structure resulting in limited filtering capabilities. Overall, flamingos foraged more efficiently on Artemias. When feeding on Chironomids, birds had lower instantaneous rates of food discovery and required more time to extract food from the sediment and ingest it, than when filtering Artemias from the water column. However, feeding on rice was energetically more profitable for flamingos than feeding on Artemias or Chironomids, explaining their attraction for rice fields. Crucially, we found that food densities required for flamingos to reach asymptotic intake rates are rarely met under natural conditions. This allows us to predict an immediate
Local predation pressure predicts the strength of mobbing responses in tropical birds
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luis SANDOVAL, David R. WILSON
2012-10-01
Full Text Available Many birds join cooperative mobbing aggregations and collectively harass predators. Individuals participating in these ephemeral associations benefit by deterring the predator, but also incur energetic costs and increased risk of predation. Explaining the evolution of mobbing is challenging because individuals could prevail by selfishly seeking safety while allowing others to mob. An important step in understanding the evolution of mobbing is to identify factors affecting its expression. The ecological constraints model suggests that animals are more likely to cooperate under adverse environmental conditions, such as when local predation pressure is high. We tested this prediction by comparing the mobbing responses of several species of birds to the local abundance of their primary predator, the ferruginous pygmy-owl Glaucidium brasilianum. We used acoustic playback to elicit mobbing responses in environments where owls were common, uncommon, or rare. Stimuli were either the song of a ferruginous pygmy-owl or the mobbing calls of three of the owl’s common prey species. During each playback, we characterized mobbing responses by noting the number of species and individuals that approached the loudspeaker, as well as the closest approach by any bird. Mobbing responses to both stimuli were strong in locations where Ferruginous Pygmy-owls were common, intermediate where owls were uncommon, and weak where they were rare. This pattern persisted even after controlling for differences in species richness and composition among the three environments. Results support the ecological constraints model and provide strong evidence that intense predation pressure increases the expression of cooperative mobbing in tropical birds [Current Zoology 58 (5: 781-790, 2012].
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jensen, Deborah Bowne [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
1993-01-01
Forest succession models and correlative models have predicted 200--650 kilometer shifts in the geographic range of temperate forests and forest species as one response to global climate change. Few studies have investigated whether population differences may effect the response of forest species to climate change. This study examines differences in tree-ring growth, and in the phenotypic plasticity of tree-ring growth in 16-year old white fir, Abies concolor, from ten populations grown in four common gardens in the Sierra Nevada of California. For each population, tree-ring growth was modelled as a function of precipitation and degree-day sums. Tree-ring growth under three scenarios of doubled CO2 climates was estimated.
Korpela, Katri; Flint, Harry J.; Johnstone, Alexandra M.; Lappi, Jenni; Poutanen, Kaisa; Dewulf, Evelyne; Delzenne, Nathalie; de Vos, Willem M.; Salonen, Anne
2014-01-01
Background Interactions between the diet and intestinal microbiota play a role in health and disease, including obesity and related metabolic complications. There is great interest to use dietary means to manipulate the microbiota to promote health. Currently, the impact of dietary change on the microbiota and the host metabolism is poorly predictable and highly individual. We propose that the responsiveness of the gut microbiota may depend on its composition, and associate with metabolic changes in the host. Methodology Our study involved three independent cohorts of obese adults (n = 78) from Belgium, Finland, and Britain, participating in different dietary interventions aiming to improve metabolic health. We used a phylogenetic microarray for comprehensive fecal microbiota analysis at baseline and after the intervention. Blood cholesterol, insulin and inflammation markers were analyzed as indicators of host response. The data were divided into four training set – test set pairs; each intervention acted both as a part of a training set and as an independent test set. We used linear models to predict the responsiveness of the microbiota and the host, and logistic regression to predict responder vs. non-responder status, or increase vs. decrease of the health parameters. Principal Findings Our models, based on the abundance of several, mainly Firmicute species at baseline, predicted the responsiveness of the microbiota (AUC = 0.77–1; predicted vs. observed correlation = 0.67–0.88). Many of the predictive taxa showed a non-linear relationship with the responsiveness. The microbiota response associated with the change in serum cholesterol levels with an AUC of 0.96, highlighting the involvement of the intestinal microbiota in metabolic health. Conclusion This proof-of-principle study introduces the first potential microbial biomarkers for dietary responsiveness in obese individuals with impaired metabolic health, and reveals the potential of
Integrating environmental and genetic effects to predict responses of tree populations to climate.
Wang, Tongli; O'Neill, Gregory A; Aitken, Sally N
2010-01-01
Climate is a major environmental factor affecting the phenotype of trees and is also a critical agent of natural selection that has molded among-population genetic variation. Population response functions describe the environmental effect of planting site climates on the performance of a single population, whereas transfer functions describe among-population genetic variation molded by natural selection for climate. Although these approaches are widely used to predict the responses of trees to climate change, both have limitations. We present a novel approach that integrates both genetic and environmental effects into a single "universal response function" (URF) to better predict the influence of climate on phenotypes. Using a large lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) field transplant experiment composed of 140 populations planted on 62 sites to demonstrate the methodology, we show that the URF makes full use of data from provenance trials to: (1) improve predictions of climate change impacts on phenotypes; (2) reduce the size and cost of future provenance trials without compromising predictive power; (3) more fully exploit existing, less comprehensive provenance tests; (4) quantify and compare environmental and genetic effects of climate on population performance; and (5) predict the performance of any population growing in any climate. Finally, we discuss how the last attribute allows the URF to be used as a mechanistic model to predict population and species ranges for the future and to guide assisted migration of seed for reforestation, restoration, or afforestation and genetic conservation in a changing climate.
van Dooremalen, Coby; Berg, Matty P; Ellers, Jacintha
2013-03-01
The occurrence of summer heat waves is predicted to increase in amplitude and frequency in the near future, but the consequences of such extreme events are largely unknown, especially for belowground organisms. Soil organisms usually exhibit strong vertical stratification, resulting in more frequent exposure to extreme temperatures for surface-dwelling species than for soil-dwelling species. Therefore soil-dwelling species are expected to have poor acclimation responses to cope with temperature changes. We used five species of surface-dwelling and four species of soil-dwelling Collembola that habituate different depths in the soil. We tested for differences in tolerance to extreme temperatures after acclimation to warm and cold conditions. We also tested for differences in acclimation of the underlying physiology by looking at changes in membrane lipid composition. Chill coma recovery time, heat knockdown time and fatty acid profiles were determined after 1 week of acclimation to either 5 or 20 °C. Our results showed that surface-dwelling Collembola better maintained increased heat tolerance across acclimation temperatures, but no such response was found for cold tolerance. Concordantly, four of the five surface-dwelling Collembola showed up to fourfold changes in relative abundance of fatty acids after 1 week of acclimation, whereas none of the soil-dwelling species showed a significant adjustment in fatty acid composition. Strong physiological responses to temperature fluctuations may have become redundant in soil-dwelling species due to the relative thermal stability of their subterranean habitat. Based on the results of the four species studied, we expect that unless soil-dwelling species can temporarily retreat to avoid extreme temperatures, the predicted increase in heat waves under climatic change renders these soil-dwelling species more vulnerable to extinction than species with better physiological capabilities. Being able to act under a larger thermal
Magozzi, Sarah; Calosi, Piero
2015-01-01
Predicting species vulnerability to global warming requires a comprehensive, mechanistic understanding of sublethal and lethal thermal tolerances. To date, however, most studies investigating species physiological responses to increasing temperature have focused on the underlying physiological traits of either acute or chronic tolerance in isolation. Here we propose an integrative, synthetic approach including the investigation of multiple physiological traits (metabolic performance and thermal tolerance), and their plasticity, to provide more accurate and balanced predictions on species and assemblage vulnerability to both acute and chronic effects of global warming. We applied this approach to more accurately elucidate relative species vulnerability to warming within an assemblage of six caridean prawns occurring in the same geographic, hence macroclimatic, region, but living in different thermal habitats. Prawns were exposed to four incubation temperatures (10, 15, 20 and 25 °C) for 7 days, their metabolic rates and upper thermal limits were measured, and plasticity was calculated according to the concept of Reaction Norms, as well as Q10 for metabolism. Compared to species occupying narrower/more stable thermal niches, species inhabiting broader/more variable thermal environments (including the invasive Palaemon macrodactylus) are likely to be less vulnerable to extreme acute thermal events as a result of their higher upper thermal limits. Nevertheless, they may be at greater risk from chronic exposure to warming due to the greater metabolic costs they incur. Indeed, a trade-off between acute and chronic tolerance was apparent in the assemblage investigated. However, the invasive species P. macrodactylus represents an exception to this pattern, showing elevated thermal limits and plasticity of these limits, as well as a high metabolic control. In general, integrating multiple proxies for species physiological acute and chronic responses to increasing
Loranger, Hannah; Zotz, Gerhard; Bader, Maaike Y
2016-01-01
On a global scale, temperature is the main determinant of arctic and alpine treeline position. However on a local scale, treeline form and position vary considerably due to other climatic factors, tree species ecology and life-stage-dependent responses. For treelines to advance poleward or uphill, the first steps are germination and seedling establishment. These earliest life stages may be major bottlenecks for treeline tree populations and will depend differently on climatic conditions than adult trees. We investigated the effect of soil temperature and moisture on germination and early seedling survival in a field experiment in the French Alps near the local treeline (2100 m a.s.l.) using passive temperature manipulations and two watering regimes. Five European treeline tree species were studied: Larix decidua, Picea abies, Pinus cembra, Pinus uncinata and Sorbus aucuparia In addition, we monitored the germination response of three of these species to low temperatures under controlled conditions in growth chambers. The early establishment of these trees at the alpine treeline was limited either by temperature or by moisture, the sensitivity to one factor often depending on the intensity of the other. The results showed that the relative importance of the two factors and the direction of the effects are highly species-specific, while both factors tend to have consistent effects on both germination and early seedling survival within each species. We show that temperature and water availability are both important contributors to establishment patterns of treeline trees and hence to species-specific forms and positions of alpine treelines. The observed idiosyncratic species responses highlight the need for studies including several species and life-stages to create predictive power concerning future treeline dynamics. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.
Species- and community-level responses combine to drive phenology of lake phytoplankton
Walters, Annika; Sagrario, María de los Ángeles González; Schindler, Daniel E.
2013-01-01
Global change is leading to shifts in the seasonal timing of growth and maturation for primary producers. Remote sensing is increasingly used to measure the timing of primary production in both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, but there is often a poor correlation between these results and direct observations of life-history responses of individual species. One explanation may be that in addition to phenological shifts, global change is also causing shifts in community composition among species with different seasonal timing of growth and maturation. We quantified how shifts in species phenology and in community composition translated into phenological change in a diverse phytoplankton community from 1962-2000. During this time the aggregate community spring-summer phytoplankton peak has shifted 63 days earlier. The mean taxon shift was only 3 days earlier and shifts in taxa phenology explained only 40% of the observed community phenological shift. The remaining community shift was attributed to dominant early season taxa increasing in abundance while a dominant late season taxon decreased in abundance. In diverse producer communities experiencing multiple stressors, changes in species composition must be considered to fully understand and predict shifts in the seasonal timing of primary production.
Prediction of treatment response to adalimumab
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Krintel, S B; Dehlendorff, C; Hetland, M L
2016-01-01
At least 30% of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) do not respond to biologic agents, which emphasizes the need of predictive biomarkers. We aimed to identify microRNAs (miRNAs) predictive of response to adalimumab in 180 treatment-naïve RA patients enrolled in the OPtimized treatment algori...... of low expression of miR-22 and high expression of miR-886.3p was associated with EULAR good response. Future studies to assess the utility of these miRNAs as predictive biomarkers are needed.The Pharmacogenomics Journal advance online publication, 5 May 2015; doi:10.1038/tpj.2015.30....
New flux based dose-response relationships for ozone for European forest tree species.
Büker, P; Feng, Z; Uddling, J; Briolat, A; Alonso, R; Braun, S; Elvira, S; Gerosa, G; Karlsson, P E; Le Thiec, D; Marzuoli, R; Mills, G; Oksanen, E; Wieser, G; Wilkinson, M; Emberson, L D
2015-11-01
To derive O3 dose-response relationships (DRR) for five European forest trees species and broadleaf deciduous and needleleaf tree plant functional types (PFTs), phytotoxic O3 doses (PODy) were related to biomass reductions. PODy was calculated using a stomatal flux model with a range of cut-off thresholds (y) indicative of varying detoxification capacities. Linear regression analysis showed that DRR for PFT and individual tree species differed in their robustness. A simplified parameterisation of the flux model was tested and showed that for most non-Mediterranean tree species, this simplified model led to similarly robust DRR as compared to a species- and climate region-specific parameterisation. Experimentally induced soil water stress was not found to substantially reduce PODy, mainly due to the short duration of soil water stress periods. This study validates the stomatal O3 flux concept and represents a step forward in predicting O3 damage to forests in a spatially and temporally varying climate. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Evolutionary responses of native plant species to invasive plants : a review
Oduor, Ayub M. O.
2013-01-01
Strong competition from invasive plant species often leads to declines in abundances and may,in certain cases, cause localized extinctions of native plant species. Nevertheless, studies have shown that certain populations of native plant species can co-exist with invasive plant species, suggesting the possibility of adaptive evolutionary responses of those populations to the invasive plants. Empirical inference of evolutionary responses of the native plant species to invasive plants has invol...
Fuller, Trevon L.; Thomassen, Henri A.; Peralvo, Manuel; Buermann, Wolfgang; Milá, Borja; Kieswetter, Charles M.; Jarrín-V, Pablo; Devitt, Susan E. Cameron; Mason, Eliza; Schweizer, Rena M.; Schlunegger, Jasmin; Chan, Janice; Wang, Ophelia; Schneider, Christopher J.; Pollinger, John P.; Saatchi, Sassan; Graham, Catherine H.; Wayne, Robert K.; Smith, Thomas B.
2013-01-01
Predicting where threatened species occur is useful for making informed conservation decisions. However, because they are usually rare, surveying threatened species is often expensive and time intensive. Here, we show how regions where common species exhibit high genetic and morphological divergence among populations can be used to predict the occurrence of species of conservation concern. Intraspecific variation of common species of birds, bats and frogs from Ecuador were found to be a significantly better predictor for the occurrence of threatened species than suites of environmental variables or the occurrence of amphibians and birds. Fully 93 per cent of the threatened species analysed had their range adequately represented by the geographical distribution of the morphological and genetic variation found in seven common species. Both higher numbers of threatened species and greater genetic and morphological variation of common species occurred along elevation gradients. Higher levels of intraspecific divergence may be the result of disruptive selection and/or introgression along gradients. We suggest that collecting data on genetic and morphological variation in common species can be a cost effective tool for conservation planning, and that future biodiversity inventories include surveying genetic and morphological data of common species whenever feasible. PMID:23595273
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sarah J. Graves
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Mapping species through classification of imaging spectroscopy data is facilitating research to understand tree species distributions at increasingly greater spatial scales. Classification requires a dataset of field observations matched to the image, which will often reflect natural species distributions, resulting in an imbalanced dataset with many samples for common species and few samples for less common species. Despite the high prevalence of imbalanced datasets in multiclass species predictions, the effect on species prediction accuracy and landscape species abundance has not yet been quantified. First, we trained and assessed the accuracy of a support vector machine (SVM model with a highly imbalanced dataset of 20 tropical species and one mixed-species class of 24 species identified in a hyperspectral image mosaic (350–2500 nm of Panamanian farmland and secondary forest fragments. The model, with an overall accuracy of 62% ± 2.3% and F-score of 59% ± 2.7%, was applied to the full image mosaic (23,000 ha at a 2-m resolution to produce a species prediction map, which suggested that this tropical agricultural landscape is more diverse than what has been presented in field-based studies. Second, we quantified the effect of class imbalance on model accuracy. Model assessment showed a trend where species with more samples were consistently over predicted while species with fewer samples were under predicted. Standardizing sample size reduced model accuracy, but also reduced the level of species over- and under-prediction. This study advances operational species mapping of diverse tropical landscapes by detailing the effect of imbalanced data on classification accuracy and providing estimates of tree species abundance in an agricultural landscape. Species maps using data and methods presented here can be used in landscape analyses of species distributions to understand human or environmental effects, in addition to focusing conservation
Evolutionary responses of native plant species to invasive plants: a review.
Oduor, Ayub M O
2013-12-01
Strong competition from invasive plant species often leads to declines in abundances and may, in certain cases, cause localized extinctions of native plant species. Nevertheless, studies have shown that certain populations of native plant species can co-exist with invasive plant species,suggesting the possibility of adaptive evolutionary responses of those populations to the invasive plants. Empirical inference of evolutionary responses of the native plant species to invasive plants has involved experiments comparing two conspecific groups of native plants for differences in expression of growth/reproductive traits: populations that have experienced competition from the invasive plant species (i.e. experienced natives) versus populations with no known history of interactions with the invasive plant species (i.e. naıve natives). Here, I employ a meta-analysis to obtain a general pattern of inferred evolutionary responses of native plant species from 53 such studies. In general, the experienced natives had significantly higher growth/reproductive performances than naıve natives, when grown with or without competition from invasive plants.While the current results indicate that certain populations of native plant species could potentially adapt evolutionarily to invasive plant species, the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that probably underlie such evolutionary responses remain unexplored and should be the focus of future studies.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Elizabeth A. Becker
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Species distribution models are now widely used in conservation and management to predict suitable habitat for protected marine species. The primary sources of dynamic habitat data have been in situ and remotely sensed oceanic variables (both are considered “measured data”, but now ocean models can provide historical estimates and forecast predictions of relevant habitat variables such as temperature, salinity, and mixed layer depth. To assess the performance of modeled ocean data in species distribution models, we present a case study for cetaceans that compares models based on output from a data assimilative implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS to those based on measured data. Specifically, we used seven years of cetacean line-transect survey data collected between 1991 and 2009 to develop predictive habitat-based models of cetacean density for 11 species in the California Current Ecosystem. Two different generalized additive models were compared: one built with a full suite of ROMS output and another built with a full suite of measured data. Model performance was assessed using the percentage of explained deviance, root mean squared error (RMSE, observed to predicted density ratios, and visual inspection of predicted and observed distributions. Predicted distribution patterns were similar for models using ROMS output and measured data, and showed good concordance between observed sightings and model predictions. Quantitative measures of predictive ability were also similar between model types, and RMSE values were almost identical. The overall demonstrated success of the ROMS-based models opens new opportunities for dynamic species management and biodiversity monitoring because ROMS output is available in near real time and can be forecast.
Variation in plastic responses of a globally distributed picoplankton species to ocean acidification
Schaum, Elisa; Rost, Björn; Millar, Andrew J.; Collins, Sinéad
2013-03-01
Phytoplankton are the basis of marine food webs, and affect biogeochemical cycles. As CO2 levels increase, shifts in the frequencies and physiology of ecotypes within phytoplankton groups will affect their nutritional value and biogeochemical function. However, studies so far are based on a few representative genotypes from key species. Here, we measure changes in cellular function and growth rate at atmospheric CO2 concentrations predicted for the year 2100 in 16 ecotypes of the marine picoplankton Ostreococcus. We find that variation in plastic responses among ecotypes is on par with published between-genera variation, so the responses of one or a few ecotypes cannot estimate changes to the physiology or composition of a species under CO2 enrichment. We show that ecotypes best at taking advantage of CO2 enrichment by changing their photosynthesis rates most should increase in relative fitness, and so in frequency in a high-CO2 environment. Finally, information on sampling location, and not phylogenetic relatedness, is a good predictor of ecotypes likely to increase in frequency in this system.
Response to intravenous fentanyl infusion predicts subsequent response to transdermal fentanyl.
Hayashi, Norihito; Kanai, Akifumi; Suzuki, Asaha; Nagahara, Yuki; Okamoto, Hirotsugu
2016-04-01
Prediction of the response to transdermal fentanyl (FENtd) before its use for chronic pain is desirable. We tested the hypothesis that the response to intravenous fentanyl infusion (FENiv) can predict the response to FENtd, including the analgesic and adverse effects. The study subjects were 70 consecutive patients with chronic pain. The response to fentanyl at 0.1 mg diluted in 50 ml of physiological saline and infused over 30 min was tested. This was followed by treatment with FENtd (Durotep MT patch 2.1 mg) at a dose of 12.5 µg/h for 2 weeks. Pain intensity before and after FENiv and 2 weeks after FENtd, and the response to treatment, were assessed by the numerical rating scale (NRS), clinical global impression-improvement scale (CGI-I), satisfaction scale (SS), and adverse effects. The NRS score decreased significantly from 7 (4-9) [median (range)] at baseline to 3 (0-8) after FENiv (p 0.04, each). The analgesic and side effects after intravenous fentanyl infusion can be used to predict the response to short-term transdermal treatment with fentanyl.
A model for predicting lung cancer response to therapy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Seibert, Rebecca M.; Ramsey, Chester R.; Hines, J. Wesley; Kupelian, Patrick A.; Langen, Katja M.; Meeks, Sanford L.; Scaperoth, Daniel D.
2007-01-01
Purpose: Volumetric computed tomography (CT) images acquired by image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT) systems can be used to measure tumor response over the course of treatment. Predictive adaptive therapy is a novel treatment technique that uses volumetric IGRT data to actively predict the future tumor response to therapy during the first few weeks of IGRT treatment. The goal of this study was to develop and test a model for predicting lung tumor response during IGRT treatment using serial megavoltage CT (MVCT). Methods and Materials: Tumor responses were measured for 20 lung cancer lesions in 17 patients that were imaged and treated with helical tomotherapy with doses ranging from 2.0 to 2.5 Gy per fraction. Five patients were treated with concurrent chemotherapy, and 1 patient was treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Tumor response to treatment was retrospectively measured by contouring 480 serial MVCT images acquired before treatment. A nonparametric, memory-based locally weight regression (LWR) model was developed for predicting tumor response using the retrospective tumor response data. This model predicts future tumor volumes and the associated confidence intervals based on limited observations during the first 2 weeks of treatment. The predictive accuracy of the model was tested using a leave-one-out cross-validation technique with the measured tumor responses. Results: The predictive algorithm was used to compare predicted verse-measured tumor volume response for all 20 lesions. The average error for the predictions of the final tumor volume was 12%, with the true volumes always bounded by the 95% confidence interval. The greatest model uncertainty occurred near the middle of the course of treatment, in which the tumor response relationships were more complex, the model has less information, and the predictors were more varied. The optimal days for measuring the tumor response on the MVCT images were on elapsed Days 1, 2, 5, 9, 11, 12, 17, and 18 during
Mukhopadhyay, Anirban; Mondal, Parimal; Barik, Jyotiskona; Chowdhury, S M; Ghosh, Tuhin; Hazra, Sugata
2015-06-01
The composition and assemblage of mangroves in the Bangladesh Sundarbans are changing systematically in response to several environmental factors. In order to understand the impact of the changing environmental conditions on the mangrove forest, species composition maps for the years 1985, 1995 and 2005 were studied. In the present study, 1985 and 1995 species zonation maps were considered as base data and the cellular automata-Markov chain model was run to predict the species zonation for the year 2005. The model output was validated against the actual dataset for 2005 and calibrated. Finally, using the model, mangrove species zonation maps for the years 2025, 2055 and 2105 have been prepared. The model was run with the assumption that the continuation of the current tempo and mode of drivers of environmental factors (temperature, rainfall, salinity change) of the last two decades will remain the same in the next few decades. Present findings show that the area distribution of the following species assemblages like Goran (Ceriops), Sundari (Heritiera), Passur (Xylocarpus), and Baen (Avicennia) would decrease in the descending order, whereas the area distribution of Gewa (Excoecaria), Keora (Sonneratia) and Kankra (Bruguiera) dominated assemblages would increase. The spatial distribution of projected mangrove species assemblages shows that more salt tolerant species will dominate in the future; which may be used as a proxy to predict the increase of salinity and its spatial variation in Sundarbans. Considering the present rate of loss of forest land, 17% of the total mangrove cover is predicted to be lost by the year 2105 with a significant loss of fresh water loving mangroves and related ecosystem services. This paper describes a unique approach to assess future changes in species composition and future forest zonation in mangroves under the 'business as usual' scenario of climate change.
Toxicological Response of Poecilia reticulata, Hyla species and ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
PROF HORSFALL
response of Poecilia reticulata, Hyla and Culex species was investigated using acute and chronic toxicity tests. ... responses over a 28 day period. .... sample. A control with only de-chlorinated tap water ..... landfills using luminescent bacteria.
Reusser, D.A.; Lee, H.
2008-01-01
Habitat models can be used to predict the distributions of marine and estuarine non-indigenous species (NIS) over several spatial scales. At an estuary scale, our goal is to predict the estuaries most likely to be invaded, but at a habitat scale, the goal is to predict the specific locations within an estuary that are most vulnerable to invasion. As an initial step in evaluating several habitat models, model performance for a suite of benthic species with reasonably well-known distributions on the Pacific coast of the US needs to be compared. We discuss the utility of non-parametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) for predicting habitat- and estuary-scale distributions of native and NIS. NPMR incorporates interactions among variables, allows qualitative and categorical variables, and utilizes data on absence as well as presence. Preliminary results indicate that NPMR generally performs well at both spatial scales and that distributions of NIS are predicted as well as those of native species. For most species, latitude was the single best predictor, although similar model performance could be obtained at both spatial scales with combinations of other habitat variables. Errors of commission were more frequent at a habitat scale, with omission and commission errors approximately equal at an estuary scale. ?? 2008 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Oxford Journals. All rights reserved.
Wiegand, Thorsten; Lehmann, Sebastian; Huth, Andreas; Fortin, Marie‐Josée
2016-01-01
Abstract Aim It has been recently suggested that different ‘unified theories of biodiversity and biogeography’ can be characterized by three common ‘minimal sufficient rules’: (1) species abundance distributions follow a hollow curve, (2) species show intraspecific aggregation, and (3) species are independently placed with respect to other species. Here, we translate these qualitative rules into a quantitative framework and assess if these minimal rules are indeed sufficient to predict multiple macroecological biodiversity patterns simultaneously. Location Tropical forest plots in Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and in Sinharaja, Sri Lanka. Methods We assess the predictive power of the three rules using dynamic and spatial simulation models in combination with census data from the two forest plots. We use two different versions of the model: (1) a neutral model and (2) an extended model that allowed for species differences in dispersal distances. In a first step we derive model parameterizations that correctly represent the three minimal rules (i.e. the model quantitatively matches the observed species abundance distribution and the distribution of intraspecific aggregation). In a second step we applied the parameterized models to predict four additional spatial biodiversity patterns. Results Species‐specific dispersal was needed to quantitatively fulfil the three minimal rules. The model with species‐specific dispersal correctly predicted the species–area relationship, but failed to predict the distance decay, the relationship between species abundances and aggregations, and the distribution of a spatial co‐occurrence index of all abundant species pairs. These results were consistent over the two forest plots. Main conclusions The three ‘minimal sufficient’ rules only provide an incomplete approximation of the stochastic spatial geometry of biodiversity in tropical forests. The assumption of independent interspecific placements is most
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lixin Chen
Full Text Available The functional convergence of tree transpiration has rarely been tested for tree species growing under urban conditions even though it is of significance to elucidate the relationship between functional convergence and species differences of urban trees for establishing sustainable urban forests in the context of forest water relations.We measured sap flux of four urban tree species including Cedrus deodara, Zelkova schneideriana, Euonymus bungeanus and Metasequoia glyptostroboides in an urban park by using thermal dissipation probes (TDP. The concurrent microclimate conditions and soil moisture content were also measured. Our objectives were to examine 1 the influence of tree species and size on transpiration, and 2 the hydraulic control of urban trees under different environmental conditions over the transpiration in response to VPD as represented by canopy conductance. The results showed that the functional convergence between tree diameter at breast height (DBH and tree canopy transpiration amount (E(c was not reliable to predict stand transpiration and there were species differences within same DBH class. Species differed in transpiration patterns to seasonal weather progression and soil water stress as a result of varied sensitivity to water availability. Species differences were also found in their potential maximum transpiration rate and reaction to light. However, a same theoretical hydraulic relationship between G(c at VPD = 1 kPa (G(cref and the G(c sensitivity to VPD (-dG(c/dlnVPD across studied species as well as under contrasting soil water and R(s conditions in the urban area.We concluded that urban trees show the same hydraulic regulation over response to VPD across varying tree size and environmental conditions and thus tree transpiration could be predicted with appropriate assessment of G(cref.
Chen, Lixin; Zhang, Zhiqiang; Ewers, Brent E
2012-01-01
The functional convergence of tree transpiration has rarely been tested for tree species growing under urban conditions even though it is of significance to elucidate the relationship between functional convergence and species differences of urban trees for establishing sustainable urban forests in the context of forest water relations. We measured sap flux of four urban tree species including Cedrus deodara, Zelkova schneideriana, Euonymus bungeanus and Metasequoia glyptostroboides in an urban park by using thermal dissipation probes (TDP). The concurrent microclimate conditions and soil moisture content were also measured. Our objectives were to examine 1) the influence of tree species and size on transpiration, and 2) the hydraulic control of urban trees under different environmental conditions over the transpiration in response to VPD as represented by canopy conductance. The results showed that the functional convergence between tree diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree canopy transpiration amount (E(c)) was not reliable to predict stand transpiration and there were species differences within same DBH class. Species differed in transpiration patterns to seasonal weather progression and soil water stress as a result of varied sensitivity to water availability. Species differences were also found in their potential maximum transpiration rate and reaction to light. However, a same theoretical hydraulic relationship between G(c) at VPD = 1 kPa (G(cref)) and the G(c) sensitivity to VPD (-dG(c)/dlnVPD) across studied species as well as under contrasting soil water and R(s) conditions in the urban area. We concluded that urban trees show the same hydraulic regulation over response to VPD across varying tree size and environmental conditions and thus tree transpiration could be predicted with appropriate assessment of G(cref).
Milos, Frank S.
2011-01-01
In most previous work at NASA Ames Research Center, ablation predictions for carbonaceous materials were obtained using a species thermodynamics database developed by Aerotherm Corporation. This database is derived mostly from the JANAF thermochemical tables. However, the CEA thermodynamics database, also used by NASA, is considered more up to date. In this work, the FIAT code was modified to use CEA-based curve fits for species thermodynamics, then analyses using both the JANAF and CEA thermodynamics were performed for carbon and carbon phenolic materials over a range of test conditions. The ablation predictions are comparable at lower heat fluxes where the dominant mechanism is carbon oxidation. However, the predictions begin to diverge in the sublimation regime, with the CEA model predicting lower recession. The disagreement is more significant for carbon phenolic than for carbon, and this difference is attributed to hydrocarbon species that may contribute to the ablation rate.
Comparing bee species responses to chemical mixtures: Common response patterns?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alex Robinson
Full Text Available Pollinators in agricultural landscapes can be exposed to mixtures of pesticides and environmental pollutants. Existing mixture toxicity modelling approaches, such as the models of concentration addition and independent action and the mechanistic DEBtox framework have been previously shown as valuable tools for understanding and ultimately predicting joint toxicity. Here we apply these mixture models to investigate the potential to interpret the effects of semi-chronic binary mixture exposure for three bee species: Apis mellifera, Bombus terrestris and Osmia bicornis within potentiation and mixture toxicity experiments. In the potentiation studies, the effect of the insecticide dimethoate with added propiconazole fungicide and neonicotinoid insecticide clothianidin with added tau-fluvalinate pyrethroid acaricide showed no difference in toxicity compared to the single chemical alone. Clothianidin toxicity showed a small scale, but temporally conserved increase in exposure conducted in the presence of propiconazole, particularly for B. terrestris and O. bicornis, the latter showing a near three-fold increase in clothianidin toxicity in the presence of propiconazole. In the mixture toxicity studies, the dominant response patterns were of additivity, however, binary mixtures of clothianidin and dimethoate in A. mellifera, B. terrestris and male O. bicornis there was evidence of a predominant antagonistic interaction. Given the ubiquitous nature of exposures to multiple chemicals, there is an urgent need to consider mixture effects in pollinator risk assessments. Our analyses suggest that current models, particularly those that utilise time-series data, such as DEBtox, can be used to identify additivity as the dominant response pattern and also those examples of interactions, even when small-scale, that may need to be taken into account during risk assessment.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Willey, Neil J.; Siasou, Eleni [Centre for Research In Biosciences, University of the West of England, Coldharbour Lane, Frenchay, Bristol BS16 1QY (United Kingdom)
2014-07-01
It is not practical to empirically derive soil-to-plant TFs for all soil-plant combinations that are important in radiological assessments, so predictions for a range of species on different soils types are frequently impossible because TFs are unknown. This severely hampers predictions of both doses to biota and of the contamination of a variety of food chains with radioisotopes. Compilations of TFs in themselves provide no fundamental understanding of the plant factors that control the soil-to-plant transfer of radionuclides and thus no method of prediction. We have developed methods for the meta-analyses of radionuclide transfer data that can be used to make predictions of the transfer of radionuclides into any plants species for which TFs do not exist based on an understand of the plant factors that control radionuclide uptake. There is no reason a priori to think that variation in TF should be constrained by species. The species is, essentially, a reproductive unit and variation in many plant traits, some of which might control radionuclide uptake, occurs at taxonomic levels above the species. In the last 15 years genomic information has transformed the understanding of the evolutionary relationships of the living world so that new 'trees of life' (phylogenies) are now available. Using a Residual Maximum Likelihood modeling procedure to compile a significant proportion of all existing TF data onto a single scale, we here present a synthesis of the influence of phylogeny on variation in soil-to-plant TFs for radioisotopes of Cs, Sr, Co, I, Tc, and S. We show that a significant proportion of variation in TF is associated with major branches of the phylogeny of angiosperms (flowering plants) so that knowledge of a species' position on the phylogeny can be used to make predictions of transfer relative to other species. These phylogenetically-based predictions of relative transfer to any species can be used to make absolute predictions to any species
Sheppard, Christine S; Burns, Bruce R; Stanley, Margaret C
2014-09-01
Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas, particularly for species from warm native ranges introduced into areas currently marginal for temperature. Although conclusions from modelling approaches and experimental studies are generally similar, combining the two approaches has rarely occurred. The aim of this study was to validate species distribution models by conducting field trials in sites of differing suitability as predicted by the models, thus increasing confidence in their ability to assess invasion risk. Three recently naturalized alien plants in New Zealand were used as study species (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla): they originate from warm native ranges, are woody bird-dispersed species and of concern as potential weeds. Seedlings were grown in six sites across the country, differing both in climate and suitability (as predicted by the species distribution models). Seedling growth and survival were recorded over two summers and one or two winter seasons, and temperature and precipitation were monitored hourly at each site. Additionally, alien seedling performances were compared to those of closely related native species (Rhopalostylis sapida, Lophomyrtus bullata and Schefflera digitata). Furthermore, half of the seedlings were sprayed with pesticide, to investigate whether enemy release may influence performance. The results showed large differences in growth and survival of the alien species among the six sites. In the more suitable sites, performance was frequently higher compared to the native species. Leaf damage from invertebrate herbivory was low for both alien and native seedlings, with little evidence that the alien species should have an advantage over the native species because of enemy release. Correlations between performance in the field and predicted suitability of species distribution models were generally high. The projected increase in minimum temperature and reduced
Rehm, Evan M; Feeley, Kenneth J
2016-08-01
The elevations at which tropical treelines occur are believed to represent the point where low mean temperatures limit the growth of upright woody trees. Consequently, tropical treelines are predicted to shift to higher elevations with global warming. However, treelines throughout the tropics have remained stationary despite increasing global mean temperatures. The goal of the study reported here was to build a more comprehensive understanding of the effects of mean temperature, low-temperature extremes, shading, and their interactions on seedling survival at tropical treelines. We conducted a seedling transplant study using three dominant canopy-forming treeline species in the southern tropical Andes. We found species-specific differences and contrasting responses in seedling survival to changes in mean temperature. The most abundant naturally occurring species at the seedling stage outside the treeline, Weinmannia fagaroides, showed a negative relationship between the survival of transplanted seedlings and mean temperature, the opposite of a priori expectations. Conversely, Clethra cuneata showed increased survival at higher mean temperatures, but survival also increased with higher absolute low temperatures and the presence of shade. Finally, the survival of Gynoxys nitida seedlings was insensitive to temperature but increased under shade. These findings show that multiple factors can determine the upper distributional limit of species forming the current tropical treeline. As such, predictions of future local and regional tropical treeline shifts may need to consider several factors beyond changes in mean temperature. If the treeline remains stationary and cloud forests are unable to expand into higher elevations, there may be severe species loss in this biodiversity hotspot.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Manning, Gillian E.; Farmahin, Reza; Crump, Doug; Jones, Stephanie P.; Klein, Jeff; Konstantinov, Alex; Potter, Dave; Kennedy, Sean W.
2012-01-01
Birds differ in sensitivity to the embryotoxic effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), which complicates environmental risk assessments for these chemicals. Recent research has shown that the identities of amino acid residues 324 and 380 in the avian aryl hydrocarbon receptor 1 (AHR1) ligand binding domain (LBD) are primarily responsible for differences in avian species sensitivity to selected dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans. A luciferase reporter gene (LRG) assay was developed in our laboratory to measure AHR1-mediated induction of a cytochrome P450 1A5 reporter gene in COS-7 cells transfected with different avian AHR1 constructs. In the present study, the LRG assay was used to measure the concentration-dependent effects of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), and PCBs 126, 77, 105 and 118 on luciferase activity in COS-7 cells transfected with AHR1 constructs representative of 86 avian species in order to predict their sensitivity to PCB-induced embryolethality and the relative potency of PCBs in these species. The results of the LRG assay indicate that the identity of amino acid residues 324 and 380 in the AHR1 LBD are the major determinants of avian species sensitivity to PCBs. The relative potency of PCBs did not differ greatly among AHR1 constructs. Luciferase activity was significantly correlated with embryolethality data obtained from the literature (R 2 ≥ 0.87, p < 0.0001). Thus, the LRG assay in combination with the knowledge of a species' AHR1 LBD sequence can be used to predict PCB-induced embryolethality in potentially any avian species of interest without the use of lethal methods on a large number of individuals. -- Highlights: ► PCB embryolethality in birds can be predicted from a species' AHR1 genotype. ► The reporter gene assay is useful for predicting species sensitivity to PCBs. ► The relative potency of PCBs does not appear to differ between AHR1 genotypes. ► Contamination of PCB 105 and PCB 118 did not affect their relative
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lewin Harris A
2009-04-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Bidirectional promoters are shared regulatory regions that influence the expression of two oppositely oriented genes. This type of regulatory architecture is found more frequently than expected by chance in the human genome, yet many specifics underlying the regulatory design are unknown. Given that the function of most orthologous genes is similar across species, we hypothesized that the architecture and regulation of bidirectional promoters might also be similar across species, representing a core regulatory structure and enabling annotation of these regions in additional mammalian genomes. Results By mapping the intergenic distances of genes in human, chimpanzee, bovine, murine, and rat, we show an enrichment for pairs of genes equal to or less than 1,000 bp between their adjacent 5' ends ("head-to-head" compared to pairs of genes that fall in the same orientation ("head-to-tail" or whose 3' ends are side-by-side ("tail-to-tail". A representative set of 1,369 human bidirectional promoters was mapped to orthologous sequences in other mammals. We confirmed predictions for 5' UTRs in nine of ten manual picks in bovine based on comparison to the orthologous human promoter set and in six of seven predictions in human based on comparison to the bovine dataset. The two predictions that did not have orthology as bidirectional promoters in the other species resulted from unique events that initiated transcription in the opposite direction in only those species. We found evidence supporting the independent emergence of bidirectional promoters from the family of five RecQ helicase genes, which gained their bidirectional promoters and partner genes independently rather than through a duplication process. Furthermore, by expanding our comparisons from pairwise to multispecies analyses we developed a map representing a core set of bidirectional promoters in mammals. Conclusion We show that the orthologous positions of bidirectional
Can nutrient status of four woody plant species be predicted using field spectrometry?
Ferwerda, J.G.; Skidmore, A.K.
2007-01-01
This paper demonstrates the potential of hyperspectral remote sensing to predict the chemical composition (i.e., nitrogen, phosphorous, calcium, potassium, sodium, and magnesium) of three tree species (i.e., willow, mopane and olive) and one shrub species (i.e., heather). Reflectance spectra,
Vårhammar, Angelica; Wallin, Göran; McLean, Christopher M.; Dusenge, Mirindi Eric; Medlyn, Belinda E.; Hasper, Thomas B.; Nsabimana, Donat; Uddling, Johan
2015-04-01
The sensitivity of photosynthetic metabolism to temperature has been identified as a key uncertainty for projecting the magnitude of the terrestrial feedback on future climate change. While temperature responses of photosynthetic capacities have been comparatively well investigated in temperate species, the responses of tropical tree species remain unexplored. We compared the responses of seedlings of native cold-adapted tropical montane rainforest tree species to exotic warm-adapted plantation species, all growing in an intermediate temperature common garden in Rwanda. Leaf gas exchange responses to CO2 at different temperatures (20 - 40 C) were used to assess the temperature responses of biochemical photosynthetic capacities. Analyses revealed a lower optimum temperature for photosynthetic electron transport rates than for Rubisco carboxylation rates, along with lower electron transport optima in the native cold-adapted than in the exotic warm-adapted species. The photosynthetic optimum temperatures were generally exceeded by daytime peak leaf temperatures, in particular in the native montane rainforest climax species. This study thus provides evidence of pronounced negative effects of high temperature in tropical trees and indicates high susceptibility of montane rainforest climax species to future global warming. (Reference: New Phytologist, in press)
The effects of model and data complexity on predictions from species distributions models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
García-Callejas, David; Bastos, Miguel
2016-01-01
How complex does a model need to be to provide useful predictions is a matter of continuous debate across environmental sciences. In the species distributions modelling literature, studies have demonstrated that more complex models tend to provide better fits. However, studies have also shown...... that predictive performance does not always increase with complexity. Testing of species distributions models is challenging because independent data for testing are often lacking, but a more general problem is that model complexity has never been formally described in such studies. Here, we systematically...
A predictive framework to understand forest responses to global change.
McMahon, Sean M; Dietze, Michael C; Hersh, Michelle H; Moran, Emily V; Clark, James S
2009-04-01
Forests are one of Earth's critical biomes. They have been shown to respond strongly to many of the drivers that are predicted to change natural systems over this century, including climate, introduced species, and other anthropogenic influences. Predicting how different tree species might respond to this complex of forces remains a daunting challenge for forest ecologists. Yet shifts in species composition and abundance can radically influence hydrological and atmospheric systems, plant and animal ranges, and human populations, making this challenge an important one to address. Forest ecologists have gathered a great deal of data over the past decades and are now using novel quantitative and computational tools to translate those data into predictions about the fate of forests. Here, after a brief review of the threats to forests over the next century, one of the more promising approaches to making ecological predictions is described: using hierarchical Bayesian methods to model forest demography and simulating future forests from those models. This approach captures complex processes, such as seed dispersal and mortality, and incorporates uncertainty due to unknown mechanisms, data problems, and parameter uncertainty. After describing the approach, an example by simulating drought for a southeastern forest is offered. Finally, there is a discussion of how this approach and others need to be cast within a framework of prediction that strives to answer the important questions posed to environmental scientists, but does so with a respect for the challenges inherent in predicting the future of a complex biological system.
Staniczenko, Phillip P A; Sivasubramaniam, Prabu; Suttle, K Blake; Pearson, Richard G
2017-06-01
Macroecological models for predicting species distributions usually only include abiotic environmental conditions as explanatory variables, despite knowledge from community ecology that all species are linked to other species through biotic interactions. This disconnect is largely due to the different spatial scales considered by the two sub-disciplines: macroecologists study patterns at large extents and coarse resolutions, while community ecologists focus on small extents and fine resolutions. A general framework for including biotic interactions in macroecological models would help bridge this divide, as it would allow for rigorous testing of the role that biotic interactions play in determining species ranges. Here, we present an approach that combines species distribution models with Bayesian networks, which enables the direct and indirect effects of biotic interactions to be modelled as propagating conditional dependencies among species' presences. We show that including biotic interactions in distribution models for species from a California grassland community results in better range predictions across the western USA. This new approach will be important for improving estimates of species distributions and their dynamics under environmental change. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Riemens, Marleen M.; Dueck, Thom; Kempenaar, Corne
2008-01-01
Guidelines provided by OECD and EPPO allow the use of data obtained in greenhouse experiments in the risk assessment for pesticides to non-target terrestrial plants in the field. The present study was undertaken to investigate the predictability of effects on field-grown plants using greenhouse data. In addition, the influence of plant development stage on plant sensitivity and herbicide efficacy, the influence of the surrounding vegetation on individual plant sensitivity and of sublethal herbicide doses on the biomass, recovery and reproduction of non-crop plants was studied. Results show that in the future, it might well be possible to translate results from greenhouse experiments to field situations, given sufficient experimental data. The results also suggest consequences at the population level. Even when only marginal effects on the biomass of non-target plants are expected, their seed production and thereby survival at the population level may be negatively affected. - The response of greenhouse-grown wild plant species to herbicide exposure could be related to the response of the same species when grown in the field
Fricker, Geoffrey A; Wolf, Jeffrey A; Saatchi, Sassan S; Gillespie, Thomas W
2015-10-01
There is an increasing interest in identifying theories, empirical data sets, and remote-sensing metrics that can quantify tropical forest alpha diversity at a landscape scale. Quantifying patterns of tree species richness in the field is time consuming, especially in regions with over 100 tree species/ha. We examine species richness in a 50-ha plot in Barro Colorado Island in Panama and test if biophysical measurements of canopy reflectance from high-resolution satellite imagery and detailed vertical forest structure and topography from light detection and ranging (lidar) are associated with species richness across four tree size classes (>1, 1-10, >10, and >20 cm dbh) and three spatial scales (1, 0.25, and 0.04 ha). We use the 2010 tree inventory, including 204,757 individuals belonging to 301 species of freestanding woody plants or 166 ± 1.5 species/ha (mean ± SE), to compare with remote-sensing data. All remote-sensing metrics became less correlated with species richness as spatial resolution decreased from 1.0 ha to 0.04 ha and tree size increased from 1 cm to 20 cm dbh. When all stems with dbh > 1 cm in 1-ha plots were compared to remote-sensing metrics, standard deviation in canopy reflectance explained 13% of the variance in species richness. The standard deviations of canopy height and the topographic wetness index (TWI) derived from lidar were the best metrics to explain the spatial variance in species richness (15% and 24%, respectively). Using multiple regression models, we made predictions of species richness across Barro Colorado Island (BCI) at the 1-ha spatial scale for different tree size classes. We predicted variation in tree species richness among all plants (adjusted r² = 0.35) and trees with dbh > 10 cm (adjusted r² = 0.25). However, the best model results were for understory trees and shrubs (dbh 1-10 cm) (adjusted r² = 0.52) that comprise the majority of species richness in tropical forests. Our results indicate that high
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Manning, Gillian E., E-mail: gmann017@uottawa.ca [Centre for Advanced Research in Environmental Genomics, Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1N 6N5 (Canada); Environment Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0H3 (Canada); Farmahin, Reza, E-mail: mfarm070@uottawa.ca [Centre for Advanced Research in Environmental Genomics, Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1N 6N5 (Canada); Environment Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0H3 (Canada); Crump, Doug, E-mail: doug.crump@ec.gc.ca [Environment Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0H3 (Canada); Jones, Stephanie P., E-mail: stephanie.jones@ec.gc.ca [Environment Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0H3 (Canada); Klein, Jeff, E-mail: jeffery@well-labs.com [Wellington Laboratories Inc., Research Division, Guelph, ON, Canada N1G 3M5 (Canada); Konstantinov, Alex, E-mail: alex@well-labs.com [Wellington Laboratories Inc., Research Division, Guelph, ON, Canada N1G 3M5 (Canada); Potter, Dave, E-mail: dpotter@well-labs.com [Wellington Laboratories Inc., Research Division, Guelph, ON, Canada N1G 3M5 (Canada); Kennedy, Sean W., E-mail: sean.kennedy@ec.gc.ca [Centre for Advanced Research in Environmental Genomics, Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1N 6N5 (Canada); Environment Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0H3 (Canada)
2012-09-15
Birds differ in sensitivity to the embryotoxic effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), which complicates environmental risk assessments for these chemicals. Recent research has shown that the identities of amino acid residues 324 and 380 in the avian aryl hydrocarbon receptor 1 (AHR1) ligand binding domain (LBD) are primarily responsible for differences in avian species sensitivity to selected dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans. A luciferase reporter gene (LRG) assay was developed in our laboratory to measure AHR1-mediated induction of a cytochrome P450 1A5 reporter gene in COS-7 cells transfected with different avian AHR1 constructs. In the present study, the LRG assay was used to measure the concentration-dependent effects of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), and PCBs 126, 77, 105 and 118 on luciferase activity in COS-7 cells transfected with AHR1 constructs representative of 86 avian species in order to predict their sensitivity to PCB-induced embryolethality and the relative potency of PCBs in these species. The results of the LRG assay indicate that the identity of amino acid residues 324 and 380 in the AHR1 LBD are the major determinants of avian species sensitivity to PCBs. The relative potency of PCBs did not differ greatly among AHR1 constructs. Luciferase activity was significantly correlated with embryolethality data obtained from the literature (R{sup 2} ≥ 0.87, p < 0.0001). Thus, the LRG assay in combination with the knowledge of a species' AHR1 LBD sequence can be used to predict PCB-induced embryolethality in potentially any avian species of interest without the use of lethal methods on a large number of individuals. -- Highlights: ► PCB embryolethality in birds can be predicted from a species' AHR1 genotype. ► The reporter gene assay is useful for predicting species sensitivity to PCBs. ► The relative potency of PCBs does not appear to differ between AHR1 genotypes. ► Contamination of PCB 105 and PCB 118 did not affect
Simpson, Annie; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Madsen, John; Westbrooks, Randy G.; Fournier, Christine; Mehrhoff, Les; Browne, Michael; Graham, Jim; Sellers, Elizabeth A.
2009-01-01
Accurate analysis of present distributions and effective modeling of future distributions of invasive alien species (IAS) are both highly dependent on the availability and accessibility of occurrence data and natural history information about the species. Invasive alien species monitoring and detection networks (such as the Invasive Plant Atlas of New England and the Invasive Plant Atlas of the MidSouth) generate occurrence data at local and regional levels within the United States, which are shared through the US National Institute of Invasive Species Science. The Inter-American Biodiversity Information Network's Invasives Information Network (I3N), facilitates cooperation on sharing invasive species occurrence data throughout the Western Hemisphere. The I3N and other national and regional networks expose their data globally via the Global Invasive Species Information Network (GISIN). International and interdisciplinary cooperation on data sharing strengthens cooperation on strategies and responses to invasions. However, limitations to effective collaboration among invasive species networks leading to successful early detection and rapid response to invasive species include: lack of interoperability; data accessibility; funding; and technical expertise. This paper proposes various solutions to these obstacles at different geographic levels and briefly describes success stories from the invasive species information networks mentioned above. Using biological informatics to facilitate global information sharing is especially critical in invasive species science, as research has shown that one of the best indicators of the invasiveness of a species is whether it has been invasive elsewhere. Data must also be shared across disciplines because natural history information (e.g. diet, predators, habitat requirements, etc.) about a species in its native range is vital for effective prevention, detection, and rapid response to an invasion. Finally, it has been our
Photosynthetic response to globally increasing CO2 of co-occurring temperate seagrass species
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Borum, Jens; Pedersen, Ole; Kotula, Lukasz
2016-01-01
Photosynthesis of most seagrass species seems to be limited by present concentrations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Therefore, the ongoing increase in atmospheric CO2 could enhance seagrass photosynthesis and internal O2 supply, and potentially change species competition through differential...... responses to increasing CO2 availability among species. We used short-term photosynthetic responses of nine seagrass species from the south-west of Australia to test species-specific responses to enhanced CO2 and changes in HCO3 -. Net photosynthesis of all species except Zostera polychlamys were limited...... at pre-industrial compared to saturating CO2 levels at light saturation, suggesting that enhanced CO2 availability will enhance seagrass performance. Seven out of the nine species were efficient HCO3 - users through acidification of diffusive boundary layers, production of extracellular carbonic...
Vårhammar, Angelica; Wallin, Göran; McLean, Christopher M; Dusenge, Mirindi Eric; Medlyn, Belinda E; Hasper, Thomas B; Nsabimana, Donat; Uddling, Johan
2015-05-01
The sensitivity of photosynthetic metabolism to temperature has been identified as a key uncertainty for projecting the magnitude of the terrestrial feedback on future climate change. While temperature responses of photosynthetic capacities have been comparatively well investigated in temperate species, the responses of tropical tree species remain unexplored. We compared the responses of seedlings of native cold-adapted tropical montane rainforest tree species with those of exotic warm-adapted plantation species, all growing in an intermediate temperature common garden in Rwanda. Leaf gas exchange responses to carbon dioxide (CO2 ) at different temperatures (20-40°C) were used to assess the temperature responses of biochemical photosynthetic capacities. Analyses revealed a lower optimum temperature for photosynthetic electron transport rates than for Rubisco carboxylation rates, along with lower electron transport optima in the native cold-adapted than in the exotic warm-adapted species. The photosynthetic optimum temperatures were generally exceeded by daytime peak leaf temperatures, in particular in the native montane rainforest climax species. This study thus provides evidence of pronounced negative effects of high temperature in tropical trees and indicates high susceptibility of montane rainforest climax species to future global warming. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.
Gagic, Vesna; Bartomeus, Ignasi; Jonsson, Tomas; Taylor, Astrid; Winqvist, Camilla; Fischer, Christina; Slade, Eleanor M; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Emmerson, Mark; Potts, Simon G; Tscharntke, Teja; Weisser, Wolfgang; Bommarco, Riccardo
2015-02-22
Drastic biodiversity declines have raised concerns about the deterioration of ecosystem functions and have motivated much recent research on the relationship between species diversity and ecosystem functioning. A functional trait framework has been proposed to improve the mechanistic understanding of this relationship, but this has rarely been tested for organisms other than plants. We analysed eight datasets, including five animal groups, to examine how well a trait-based approach, compared with a more traditional taxonomic approach, predicts seven ecosystem functions below- and above-ground. Trait-based indices consistently provided greater explanatory power than species richness or abundance. The frequency distributions of single or multiple traits in the community were the best predictors of ecosystem functioning. This implies that the ecosystem functions we investigated were underpinned by the combination of trait identities (i.e. single-trait indices) and trait complementarity (i.e. multi-trait indices) in the communities. Our study provides new insights into the general mechanisms that link biodiversity to ecosystem functioning in natural animal communities and suggests that the observed responses were due to the identity and dominance patterns of the trait composition rather than the number or abundance of species per se. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
Performance of immunological response in predicting virological failure.
Ingole, Nayana; Mehta, Preeti; Pazare, Amar; Paranjpe, Supriya; Sarkate, Purva
2013-03-01
In HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART), the decision on when to switch from first-line to second-line therapy is dictated by treatment failure, and this can be measured in three ways: clinically, immunologically, and virologically. While viral load (VL) decreases and CD4 cell increases typically occur together after starting ART, discordant responses may be seen. Hence the current study was designed to determine the immunological and virological response to ART and to evaluate the utility of immunological response to predict virological failure. All treatment-naive HIV-positive individuals aged >18 years who were eligible for ART were enrolled and assessed at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months clinically and by CD4 cell count and viral load estimations. The patients were categorized as showing concordant favorable (CF), immunological only (IO), virological only (VO), and concordant unfavorable responses (CU). The efficiency of immunological failure to predict virological failure was analyzed across various levels of virological failure (VL>50, >500, and >5,000 copies/ml). At 6 months, 87(79.81%), 7(5.5%), 13 (11.92%), and 2 (1.83%) patients and at 12 months 61(69.3%), 9(10.2%), 16 (18.2%), and 2 (2.3%) patients had CF, IO, VO, and CU responses, respectively. Immunological failure criteria had a very low sensitivity (11.1-40%) and positive predictive value (8.3-25%) to predict virological failure. Immunological criteria do not accurately predict virological failure resulting in significant misclassification of therapeutic responses. There is an urgent need for inclusion of viral load testing in the initiation and monitoring of ART.
Foster, Jane R.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.; Banerjee, Sudipto
2016-01-01
As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests’ ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals’ size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species likeAcer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92–95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth
Foster, Jane R; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Bradford, John B; Banerjee, Sudipto
2016-06-01
As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2 and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests' ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals' size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species like Acer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92-95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses
Can temporal and spatial NDVI predict regional bird-species richness?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sebastián Nieto
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Understanding the distribution of the species and its controls over biogeographic scales is still a major challenge in ecology. National Park Networks provide an opportunity to assess the relationship between ecosystem functioning and biodiversity in areas with low human impacts. We tested the productivity–biodiversity hypothesis which states that the number of species increases with the available energy, and the variability–biodiversity hypothesis which states that the number of species increases with the diversity of habitats. The available energy and habitat heterogeneity estimated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI was shown as a good predictor of bird-species richness for a diverse set of biomes in previously published studies. However, there is not a universal relationship between NDVI and bird-species richness. Here we tested if the NDVI can predict bird species richness in areas with low human impact in Argentina. Using a dataset from the National Park Network of Argentina we found that the best predictor of bird species richness was the minimum value of NDVI per year which explained 75% of total variability. The inclusion of the spatial heterogeneity of NDVI improved the explanation power to 80%. Minimum NDVI was highly correlated with precipitation and winter temperature. Our analysis provides a tool for assessing bird-species richness at scales on which land-use planning practitioners make their decisions for Southern South America.
Redwoods—responsibilities for a long-lived species/resource
Robert Ewing
2017-01-01
What responsibilities do humans have to ensure that redwoods survive? And what values and strategies are required to accomplish such a purpose? A basic assumption is that the saving of a species, or more broadly of an ecosystem, is ultimately about human survival and that there is a responsibility to use all tools available to this end. To date, our actions to sustain...
Predicting diet and consumption rate differences between and within species using gut ecomorphology.
Griffen, Blaine D; Mosblack, Hallie
2011-07-01
1. Rapid environmental changes and pressing human needs to forecast the consequences of environmental change are increasingly driving ecology to become a predictive science. The need for effective prediction requires both the development of new tools and the refocusing of existing tools that may have previously been used primarily for purposes other than prediction. One such tool that historically has been more descriptive in nature is ecomorphology (the study of relationships between ecological roles and morphological adaptations of species and individuals). 2. Here, we examine relationships between diet and gut morphology for 15 species of brachyuran crabs, a group of pervasive and highly successful consumers for which trophic predictions would be highly valuable. 3. We show that patterns in crab stomach volume closely match some predictions of metabolic theory and demonstrate that individual diet differences and associated morphological variation reflect, at least in some instances, individual choice or diet specialization. 4. We then present examples of how stomach volume can be used to predict both the per cent herbivory of brachyuran crabs and the relative consumption rates of individual crabs. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.
Marshall, Leon; Carvalheiro, Luísa G; Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús; Bos, Merijn; de Groot, G Arjen; Kleijn, David; Potts, Simon G; Reemer, Menno; Roberts, Stuart; Scheper, Jeroen; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C
2015-10-01
Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs' usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and
Determining light stress responses for a tropical multi-species seagrass assemblage.
Statton, John; McMahon, Kathryn; Lavery, Paul; Kendrick, Gary A
2018-03-01
Existing mitigations to address deterioration in water clarity associated with human activities are based on responses from single seagrass species but may not be appropriate for diverse seagrass assemblages common to tropical waters. We present findings from a light experiment designed to determine the effects of magnitude and duration of low light on a mixed tropical seagrass assemblage. Mixed assemblages of three commonly co-occurring Indo-West Pacific seagrasses, Cymodocea serrulata, Halodule uninervis and Halophila ovalis were grown in climate-controlled tanks, where replicate pots were subjected to a gradient in light availability (0.9-21.6 mols PAR m -2 day -1 ) for 12 weeks. Increased shading resulted in declines in growth and changes in cellular and photosynthesis responses for all species, although time-scale and magnitude of response were species-specific. Applying management criteria (e.g. thresholds) relevant to one species may under- or over-estimate potential for impact on other species and the meadow as a whole. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Martin-Lorenzo, Marta; Martinez, Paula J; Baldan-Martin, Montserrat; Ruiz-Hurtado, Gema; Prado, Jose Carlos; Segura, Julian; de la Cuesta, Fernando; Barderas, Maria G; Vivanco, Fernando; Ruilope, Luis Miguel; Alvarez-Llamas, Gloria
2017-11-01
Resistant hypertension (RH) affects 9% to 12% of hypertensive adults. Prolonged exposure to suboptimal blood pressure control results in end-organ damage and cardiovascular risk. Spironolactone is the most effective drug for treatment, but not all patients respond and side effects are not negligible. Little is known on the mechanisms responsible for RH. We aimed to identify metabolic alterations in urine. In addition, a potential capacity of metabolites to predict response to spironolactone was investigated. Urine was collected from 29 patients with RH and from a group of 13 subjects with pseudo-RH. For patients, samples were collected before and after spironolactone administration and were classified in responders (n=19) and nonresponders (n=10). Nuclear magnetic resonance was applied to identify altered metabolites and pathways. Metabolites were confirmed by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Citric acid cycle was the pathway most significantly altered ( P citric acid cycle and deregulation of reactive oxygen species homeostasis control continue its activation after hypertension was developed. A metabolic panel showing alteration before spironolactone treatment and predicting future response of patients is shown. These molecular indicators will contribute optimizing the rate of control of RH patients with spironolactone. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.
Predicting weed problems in maize cropping by species distribution modelling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bürger, Jana
2014-02-01
Full Text Available Increasing maize cultivation and changed cropping practices promote the selection of typical maize weeds that may also profit strongly from climate change. Predicting potential weed problems is of high interest for plant production. Within the project KLIFF, experiments were combined with species distribution modelling for this task in the region of Lower Saxony, Germany. For our study, we modelled ecological and damage niches of nine weed species that are significant and wide spread in maize cropping in a number of European countries. Species distribution models describe the ecological niche of a species, these are the environmental conditions under which a species can maintain a vital population. It is also possible to estimate a damage niche, i.e. the conditions under which a species causes damage in agricultural crops. For this, we combined occurrence data of European national data bases with high resolution climate, soil and land use data. Models were also projected to simulated climate conditions for the time horizon 2070 - 2100 in order to estimate climate change effects. Modelling results indicate favourable conditions for typical maize weed occurrence virtually all over the study region, but only a few species are important in maize cropping. This is in good accordance with the findings of an earlier maize weed monitoring. Reaction to changing climate conditions is species-specific, for some species neutral (E. crus-galli, other species may gain (Polygonum persicaria or loose (Viola arvensis large areas of suitable habitats. All species with damage potential under present conditions will remain important in maize cropping, some more species will gain regional importance (Calystegia sepium, Setara viridis.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Horne, C.R.; Hirst, Andrew G.; Atkinson, D.
2015-01-01
of these gradients to date, and find that their direction and magnitude co-vary among 12 arthropod orders (r2 = 0.72). Body size in aquatic species generally reduces with both warming and decreasing latitude, whereas terrestrial species have much reduced and even opposite gradients. These patterns support...... the prediction that oxygen limitation is a major controlling factor in water, but not in air. Furthermore, voltinism explains much of the variation in T-S and L-S patterns in terrestrial but not aquatic species. While body size decreases with warming and with decreasing latitude in multivoltine terrestrial......Two major intraspecific patterns of adult size variation are plastic temperature-size (T-S) responses and latitude-size (L-S) clines. Yet, the degree to which these co-vary and share explanatory mechanisms has not been systematically evaluated. We present the largest quantitative comparison...
Response of plant species to coal-mine soil materials
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Day, A.D.; Tucker, T.C.; Thames, J.L.
1983-03-01
The two-year Black Mesa Coal Mine Research Study on the area near Kayenta, Arizona investigating the growth and establishment of seven plant species in unmined soil and coal-mined soils found that plant species grew better in unmined soil and that irrigation is essential during seedling establishment for the effective stabilization of coal-mined soils in a semi-arid environment. Differences among the species included variations in germination, response to irrigation, seedling establishment, and stem growth. 12 references, 2 figures, 2 tables.
Predicting response to epigenetic therapy
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Treppendahl, Marianne B; Sommer Kristensen, Lasse; Grønbæk, Kirsten
2014-01-01
of good pretreatment predictors of response is of great value. Many clinical parameters and molecular targets have been tested in preclinical and clinical studies with varying results, leaving room for optimization. Here we provide an overview of markers that may predict the efficacy of FDA- and EMA...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dryw A. Jones
2015-07-01
Full Text Available Prediction of projected tree leaf area using allometric relationships with sapwood cross-sectional area is common in tree- and stand-level production studies. Measuring sapwood is difficult and often requires destructive sampling. This study tested multiple leaf area prediction models across seven diverse conifer species in the Sierra Nevada of California. The best-fit whole tree leaf area prediction model for overall simplicity, accuracy, and utility for all seven species was a nonlinear model with basal area as the primary covariate. A new non-destructive procedure was introduced to extend the branch summation approach to leaf area data collection on trees that cannot be destructively sampled. There were no significant differences between fixed effects assigned to sampling procedures, indicating that data from the tested sampling procedures can be combined for whole tree leaf area modeling purposes. These results indicate that, for the species sampled, accurate leaf area estimates can be obtained through partially-destructive sampling and using common forest inventory data.
Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kissling, W. Daniel; Field, R.; Korntheuer, H.
2010-01-01
Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant...... species in Kenya and employed model-averaged coefficients from regression models and median climatic forecasts assembled across 15 climate-change scenarios to predict bird species richness under climate change. Forecasts assuming an instantaneous response of woody plants and birds to climate change...... suggested increases in future bird species richness across most of Kenya whereas forecasts assuming strongly lagged woody plant responses to climate change indicated a reversed trend, i.e. reduced bird species richness. Uncertainties in predictions of future bird species richness were geographically...
Mechanistic Modeling Framework for Predicting Extreme Battery Response
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Moffat, Harry K.; Geller, Anthony S.; R. Kee (CSM); S. Allu (ORNL)
2017-03-01
The objective of this project was to Address root cause and implications of thermal runaway of Li-ion batteries by delivering a software architecture solution that can lead to the development of predictive mechanisms that are based on identification of species.
Mechanistic Modeling Framework for Predicting Extreme Battery Response
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Geller, Anthony S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2014-11-01
The objectives of this project are to address the root cause implications of thermal runaway of Li-ion batteries by delivering a software architecture solution that can lead to the development of predictive mechanisms that are based on identification of species.
Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.
2015-11-02
As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D2R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of
Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Adams, Henry D.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Minor, Rebecca L.; Gardea, Alfonso A.; Bentley, Lisa Patrick; Law, Darin J.; Breshears, David D.; McDowell, Nate G.; Huxman, Travis E.
2017-11-01
Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlings of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 °C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P. ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per °C for P. edulis; 5.8% per °C for P. ponderosa). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration—many more short droughts than long droughts—these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7-9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occurs, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These
Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought
Adams, Henry D.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Minor, Rebecca L.; Gardea, Alfonso A.; Bentley, Lisa Patrick; Law, Darin J.; Breshears, David D.; McDowell, Nate G.; Huxman, Travis E.
2017-11-01
Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlings of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 °C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P. ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per °C for P. edulis; 5.8% per °C for P. ponderosa). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration—many more short droughts than long droughts—these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7-9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occur, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These results illustrate profound benefits for
Bauer, Jonathan T; Koziol, Liz; Bever, James D
2018-02-01
Many plant species are limited to habitats relatively unaffected by anthropogenic disturbance, so protecting these undisturbed habitats is essential for plant conservation. Coefficients of conservatism (C values) were developed as indicators of a species' sensitivity to anthropogenic disturbance, and these values are used in Floristic Quality Assessment as a means of assessing natural areas and ecological restoration. However, assigning of these values is subjective and improved quantitative validation of C values is needed. We tested whether there are consistent differences in life histories between species with high and low C values. To do this, we grew 54 species of tallgrass prairie plants in a greenhouse and measured traits that are associated with trade-offs on the fast-slow continuum of life-history strategies. We also grew plants with and without mycorrhizal fungi as a test of these species' reliance on this mutualism. We compared these traits and mycorrhizal responsiveness to C values. We found that six of the nine traits we measured were correlated with C values, and together, traits predicted up to 50 % of the variation in C values. Traits including fast growth rates and greater investment in reproduction were associated with lower C values, and slow growth rates, long-lived leaves and high root:shoot ratios were associated with higher C values. Additionally, plants with high C values and a slow life history were more responsive to mutualisms with mycorrhizal fungi. Overall, our results connect C values with life-history trade-offs, indicating that high C value species tend to share a suite of traits associated with a slow life history.
Abundance of introduced species at home predicts abundance away in herbaceous communities
Firn, Jennifer; Moore, Joslin L.; MacDougall, Andrew S.; Borer, Elizabeth T.; Seabloom, Eric W.; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Harpole, W. Stanley; Cleland, Elsa E.; Brown, Cynthia S.; Knops, Johannes M.H.; Prober, Suzanne M.; Pyke, David A.; Farrell, Kelly A.; Bakker, John D.; O'Halloran, Lydia R.; Adler, Peter B.; Collins, Scott L.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Crawley, Michael J.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; La Pierre, Kimberly J.; Melbourne, Brett A.; Hautier, Yann; Morgan, John W.; Leakey, Andrew D.B.; Kay, Adam; McCulley, Rebecca; Davies, Kendi F.; Stevens, Carly J.; Chu, Cheng-Jin; Holl, Karen D.; Klein, Julia A.; Fay, Phillip A.; Hagenah, Nicole; Kirkman, Kevin P.; Buckley, Yvonne M.
2011-01-01
Many ecosystems worldwide are dominated by introduced plant species, leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. A common but rarely tested assumption is that these plants are more abundant in introduced vs. native communities, because ecological or evolutionary-based shifts in populations underlie invasion success. Here, data for 26 herbaceous species at 39 sites, within eight countries, revealed that species abundances were similar at native (home) and introduced (away) sites - grass species were generally abundant home and away, while forbs were low in abundance, but more abundant at home. Sites with six or more of these species had similar community abundance hierarchies, suggesting that suites of introduced species are assembling similarly on different continents. Overall, we found that substantial changes to populations are not necessarily a pre-condition for invasion success and that increases in species abundance are unusual. Instead, abundance at home predicts abundance away, a potentially useful additional criterion for biosecurity programmes.
Development of an Integrated Moisture Index for predicting species composition
Louis R. Iverson; Charles T. Scott; Martin E. Dale; Anantha Prasad
1996-01-01
A geographic information system (GIS) approach was used to develop an Integrated Moisture Index (IMI), which was used to predict species composition for Ohio forests. Several landscape features (a slope-aspect shading index, cumulative flow of water downslope, curvature of the landscape, and the water-holding capacity of the soil) were derived from elevation and soils...
Empirical Flutter Prediction Method.
1988-03-05
been used in this way to discover species or subspecies of animals, and to discover different types of voter or comsumer requiring different persuasions...respect to behavior or performance or response variables. Once this were done, corresponding clusters might be sought among descriptive or predictive or...jump in a response. The first sort of usage does not apply to the flutter prediction problem. Here the types of behavior are the different kinds of
Species loss, delayed numerical responses, and functional compensation in an antbird guild.
Touchton, Janeene M; Smith, James N M
2011-05-01
When a community loses species through fragmentation, its total food consumption may drop. Compensatory responses of remaining species, whereby survivors assume roles of extinct competitors, may reduce the impact of species loss through numerical or functional responses. We measured compensatory responses in two remaining antbird species on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, four decades after the loss of their dominant competitor, the Ocellated Antbird, Phaenostictus mcleannani. We compared current abundances and behavior of these two species on Barro Colorado to those reported before the island lost Ocellated Antbirds, and to those in a nearby mainland population where all three species still exist as a space-for-time substitution. The smaller, more subordinate Spotted Antbird, Hylophylax naevioides, responded far more strongly than the larger Bicolored Antbird, Gymnopithys leucaspis, which is functionally more like the Ocellated Antbird. Islandwide density of Spotted Antbirds has more than doubled since the loss of Ocellated Antbirds. Moreover, Spotted Antbirds now spend so much more of their time following ant swarms that their metabolic biomass at these swarms has more than tripled since Ocellated Antbirds disappeared. These responses in Spotted Antbirds were apparently delayed by >20 years. Bicolored Antbirds have not increased substantially in islandwide density or metabolic biomass at ant swarms. We hypothesize that behavioral flexibility, as shown by Spotted Antbirds on Barro Colorado Island, is a major factor governing the extent to which fragmented ecosystems can buffer the impacts of species loss.
Different responses to reward comparisons by three primate species.
Freeman, Hani D; Sullivan, Jennifer; Hopper, Lydia M; Talbot, Catherine F; Holmes, Andrea N; Schultz-Darken, Nancy; Williams, Lawrence E; Brosnan, Sarah F
2013-01-01
Recently, much attention has been paid to the role of cooperative breeding in the evolution of behavior. In many measures, cooperative breeders are more prosocial than non-cooperatively breeding species, including being more likely to actively share food. This is hypothesized to be due to selective pressures specific to the interdependency characteristic of cooperatively breeding species. Given the high costs of finding a new mate, it has been proposed that cooperative breeders, unlike primates that cooperate in other contexts, should not respond negatively to unequal outcomes between themselves and their partner. However, in this context such pressures may extend beyond cooperative breeders to other species with pair-bonding and bi-parental care. Here we test the response of two New World primate species with different parental strategies to unequal outcomes in both individual and social contrast conditions. One species tested was a cooperative breeder (Callithrix spp.) and the second practiced bi-parental care (Aotus spp.). Additionally, to verify our procedure, we tested a third confamilial species that shows no such interdependence but does respond to individual (but not social) contrast (Saimiri spp.). We tested all three genera using an established inequity paradigm in which individuals in a pair took turns to gain rewards that sometimes differed from those of their partners. None of the three species tested responded negatively to inequitable outcomes in this experimental context. Importantly, the Saimiri spp responded to individual contrast, as in earlier studies, validating our procedure. When these data are considered in relation to previous studies investigating responses to inequity in primates, they indicate that one aspect of cooperative breeding, pair-bonding or bi-parental care, may influence the evolution of these behaviors. These results emphasize the need to study a variety of species to gain insight in to how decision-making may vary across
Different responses to reward comparisons by three primate species.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hani D Freeman
Full Text Available Recently, much attention has been paid to the role of cooperative breeding in the evolution of behavior. In many measures, cooperative breeders are more prosocial than non-cooperatively breeding species, including being more likely to actively share food. This is hypothesized to be due to selective pressures specific to the interdependency characteristic of cooperatively breeding species. Given the high costs of finding a new mate, it has been proposed that cooperative breeders, unlike primates that cooperate in other contexts, should not respond negatively to unequal outcomes between themselves and their partner. However, in this context such pressures may extend beyond cooperative breeders to other species with pair-bonding and bi-parental care.Here we test the response of two New World primate species with different parental strategies to unequal outcomes in both individual and social contrast conditions. One species tested was a cooperative breeder (Callithrix spp. and the second practiced bi-parental care (Aotus spp.. Additionally, to verify our procedure, we tested a third confamilial species that shows no such interdependence but does respond to individual (but not social contrast (Saimiri spp.. We tested all three genera using an established inequity paradigm in which individuals in a pair took turns to gain rewards that sometimes differed from those of their partners.None of the three species tested responded negatively to inequitable outcomes in this experimental context. Importantly, the Saimiri spp responded to individual contrast, as in earlier studies, validating our procedure. When these data are considered in relation to previous studies investigating responses to inequity in primates, they indicate that one aspect of cooperative breeding, pair-bonding or bi-parental care, may influence the evolution of these behaviors. These results emphasize the need to study a variety of species to gain insight in to how decision-making may
Five potential consequences of climate change for invasive species.
Hellmann, Jessica J; Byers, James E; Bierwagen, Britta G; Dukes, Jeffrey S
2008-06-01
Scientific and societal unknowns make it difficult to predict how global environmental changes such as climate change and biological invasions will affect ecological systems. In the long term, these changes may have interacting effects and compound the uncertainty associated with each individual driver. Nonetheless, invasive species are likely to respond in ways that should be qualitatively predictable, and some of these responses will be distinct from those of native counterparts. We used the stages of invasion known as the "invasion pathway" to identify 5 nonexclusive consequences of climate change for invasive species: (1) altered transport and introduction mechanisms, (2) establishment of new invasive species, (3) altered impact of existing invasive species, (4) altered distribution of existing invasive species, and (5) altered effectiveness of control strategies. We then used these consequences to identify testable hypotheses about the responses of invasive species to climate change and provide suggestions for invasive-species management plans. The 5 consequences also emphasize the need for enhanced environmental monitoring and expanded coordination among entities involved in invasive-species management.
What are the most crucial soil factors for predicting the distribution of alpine plant species?
Buri, A.; Pinto-Figueroa, E.; Yashiro, E.; Guisan, A.
2017-12-01
Nowadays the use of species distribution models (SDM) is common to predict in space and time the distribution of organisms living in the critical zone. The realized environmental niche concept behind the development of SDM imply that many environmental factors must be accounted for simultaneously to predict species distributions. Climatic and topographic factors are often primary included, whereas soil factors are frequently neglected, mainly due to the paucity of soil information available spatially and temporally. Furthermore, among existing studies, most included soil pH only, or few other soil parameters. In this study we aimed at identifying what are the most crucial soil factors for explaining alpine plant distributions and, among those identified, which ones further improve the predictive power of plant SDMs. To test the relative importance of the soil factors, we performed plant SDMs using as predictors 52 measured soil properties of various types such as organic/inorganic compounds, chemical/physical properties, water related variables, mineral composition or grain size distribution. We added them separately to a standard set of topo-climatic predictors (temperature, slope, solar radiation and topographic position). We used ensemble forecasting techniques combining together several predictive algorithms to model the distribution of 116 plant species over 250 sites in the Swiss Alps. We recorded the variable importance for each model and compared the quality of the models including different soil proprieties (one at a time) as predictors to models having only topo-climatic variables as predictors. Results show that 46% of the soil proprieties tested become the second most important variable, after air temperature, to explain spatial distribution of alpine plants species. Moreover, we also assessed that addition of certain soil factors, such as bulk soil water density, could improve over 80% the quality of some plant species models. We confirm that soil p
The predictive skill of species distribution models for plankton in a changing climate
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Brun, Philipp Georg; Kiørboe, Thomas; Licandro, Priscilla
2016-01-01
Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to project spatial relocations of marine taxa under future climate change scenarios. However, tests of their predictive skill in the real-world are rare. Here, we use data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder program, one...... null models, is essential to assess the robustness of projections of marine planktonic species under climate change...
Jorgenson, Zachary G.; Buhl, Kevin J.; Bartell, Stephen E.; Schoenfuss, Heiko L.
2015-01-01
Although the effects of estrogens on model laboratory species are well documented, their utility as surrogates for other species, including those listed as endangered, are less clear. Traditionally, conservation policies are evaluated based on model organism responses but are intended to protect all species in an environment. We tested the hypothesis that the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow (Hybognathus amarus) is more vulnerable to endocrine disruption—as assessed through its larval predator-escape performance, survival, juvenile sex ratios, and whole-body vitellogenin concentration—than the commonly used toxicological model species fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) and the bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus). Fish were exposed concurrently for 21 days to the model endocrine active compound (EAC) 17ß-estradiol (E2) at 10 ng E2/L and 30 ng E2/L in a flow-through system using reconstituted water that simulated the physicochemical conditions of the Middle Rio Grande in New Mexico, USA. No significant differences were observed between the fathead and silvery minnow in larval predator-escape response or juvenile sex ratio. Rio Grande silvery minnow survival decreased significantly at day 14 compared with the other two species; by day 21, both cyprinid species (silvery minnow and fathead minnow) exhibited a significant decrease in survival compared with bluegill sunfish, a member of the family Centrarchidae. Male Rio Grande silvery minnow showed a significant increase in whole-body vitellogenin concentration in the 10 ng/L treatment, whereas fathead minnow and bluegill sunfish showed no significant increases in vitellogenin concentrations across treatments. Our study showed response differences to estrogen exposures between the two cyprinid species and further divergence in responses between the families Cyprinidae and Centrarchidae. These results suggest that commonly used laboratory model organisms may be less sensitive to EACs than the endangered
Jorgenson, Z G; Buhl, K; Bartell, S E; Schoenfuss, H L
2015-01-01
Although the effects of estrogens on model laboratory species are well documented, their utility as surrogates for other species, including those listed as endangered, are less clear. Traditionally, conservation policies are evaluated based on model organism responses but are intended to protect all species in an environment. We tested the hypothesis that the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow (Hybognathus amarus) is more vulnerable to endocrine disruption-as assessed through its larval predator-escape performance, survival, juvenile sex ratios, and whole-body vitellogenin concentration-than the commonly used toxicological model species fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) and the bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus). Fish were exposed concurrently for 21 days to the model endocrine active compound (EAC) 17ß-estradiol (E2) at 10 ng E2/L and 30 ng E2/L in a flow-through system using reconstituted water that simulated the physicochemical conditions of the Middle Rio Grande in New Mexico, USA. No significant differences were observed between the fathead and silvery minnow in larval predator-escape response or juvenile sex ratio. Rio Grande silvery minnow survival decreased significantly at day 14 compared with the other two species; by day 21, both cyprinid species (silvery minnow and fathead minnow) exhibited a significant decrease in survival compared with bluegill sunfish, a member of the family Centrarchidae. Male Rio Grande silvery minnow showed a significant increase in whole-body vitellogenin concentration in the 10 ng/L treatment, whereas fathead minnow and bluegill sunfish showed no significant increases in vitellogenin concentrations across treatments. Our study showed response differences to estrogen exposures between the two cyprinid species and further divergence in responses between the families Cyprinidae and Centrarchidae. These results suggest that commonly used laboratory model organisms may be less sensitive to EACs than the endangered Rio
Predicting the response of olfactory sensory neurons to odor mixtures from single odor response
Marasco, Addolorata; de Paris, Alessandro; Migliore, Michele
2016-04-01
The response of olfactory receptor neurons to odor mixtures is not well understood. Here, using experimental constraints, we investigate the mathematical structure of the odor response space and its consequences. The analysis suggests that the odor response space is 3-dimensional, and predicts that the dose-response curve of an odor receptor can be obtained, in most cases, from three primary components with specific properties. This opens the way to an objective procedure to obtain specific olfactory receptor responses by manipulating mixtures in a mathematically predictable manner. This result is general and applies, independently of the number of odor components, to any olfactory sensory neuron type with a response curve that can be represented as a sigmoidal function of the odor concentration.
How Do Marine Pelagic Species Respond to Climate Change? Theories and Observations
Beaugrand, Grégory; Kirby, Richard R.
2018-01-01
In this review, we show how climate affects species, communities, and ecosystems, and why many responses from the species to the biome level originate from the interaction between the species’ ecological niche and changes in the environmental regime in both space and time. We describe a theory that allows us to understand and predict how marine species react to climate-induced changes in ecological conditions, how communities form and are reconfigured, and so how biodiversity is arranged and may respond to climate change. Our study shows that the responses of species to climate change are therefore intelligible—that is, they have a strong deterministic component and can be predicted.
Response of tropical peat swamp forest tree species seedlings to macro nutrients
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tri Wira Yuwati
2015-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Efforts of restoration of degraded tropical peat swamp forest were facing constraints due to the low available nutrient level of peat. The transplanted peat swamp forest species seedlings experienced low survival rate and poor growth performance. This study aimed to demonstrate the response of ten tropical peat swamp forest species seedlings whether climax and pioneer species to macro-nutrients addition in the nursery. The growth performance of climax and pioneer tropical peat swamp species seedlings was recorded following addition of macro nutrients of Nitrogen (N, Phosphorus(P, Potassium(K and Dolomitic limestone (CaMg. The result showed that Alstonia spatulata and Parartocarpus venenosus showed positive growth response following macro nutrients addition. This study concluded that tropical peat swamp pioneer species has lower necessity for macro-nutrients addition than tropical peat swamp climax species.
Diverse responses of species to landscape fragmentation in a simple food chain.
Liao, Jinbao; Bearup, Daniel; Blasius, Bernd
2017-09-01
Habitat destruction, characterized by habitat loss and fragmentation, is a key driver of species extinction in spatial extended communities. Recently, there has been some progress in the theory of spatial food webs, however to date practically little is known about how habitat configurational fragmentation influences multi-trophic food web dynamics. To explore how habitat fragmentation affects species persistence in food webs, we introduce a modelling framework that describes the site occupancy of species in a tri-trophic system. We assume that species dispersal range increases with trophic level, exploiting pair-approximation techniques to describe the effect of habitat clustering. In accordance with the trophic rank hypothesis, both habitat loss and fragmentation generally cause species extinction, with stronger effects occurring at higher trophic levels. However, species display diverse responses (negative, neutral or positive) to habitat loss and fragmentation separately, depending on their dispersal range and trophic position. Counter-intuitively, prey species may benefit from habitat loss due to a release in top-down control. Similarly, habitat fragmentation has almost no influence on the site occupancy of the intermediate consumer in the tri-trophic system, though it decreases those of both basal species and top predator. Consequently, species' responses to habitat destruction vary as other species become extinct. Our results reiterate the importance of the interplay between bottom-up and top-down control in trophically linked communities, and highlight the complex responses occurring in even a simple food chain. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.
Dopamine reward prediction error responses reflect marginal utility.
Stauffer, William R; Lak, Armin; Schultz, Wolfram
2014-11-03
Optimal choices require an accurate neuronal representation of economic value. In economics, utility functions are mathematical representations of subjective value that can be constructed from choices under risk. Utility usually exhibits a nonlinear relationship to physical reward value that corresponds to risk attitudes and reflects the increasing or decreasing marginal utility obtained with each additional unit of reward. Accordingly, neuronal reward responses coding utility should robustly reflect this nonlinearity. In two monkeys, we measured utility as a function of physical reward value from meaningful choices under risk (that adhered to first- and second-order stochastic dominance). The resulting nonlinear utility functions predicted the certainty equivalents for new gambles, indicating that the functions' shapes were meaningful. The monkeys were risk seeking (convex utility function) for low reward and risk avoiding (concave utility function) with higher amounts. Critically, the dopamine prediction error responses at the time of reward itself reflected the nonlinear utility functions measured at the time of choices. In particular, the reward response magnitude depended on the first derivative of the utility function and thus reflected the marginal utility. Furthermore, dopamine responses recorded outside of the task reflected the marginal utility of unpredicted reward. Accordingly, these responses were sufficient to train reinforcement learning models to predict the behaviorally defined expected utility of gambles. These data suggest a neuronal manifestation of marginal utility in dopamine neurons and indicate a common neuronal basis for fundamental explanatory constructs in animal learning theory (prediction error) and economic decision theory (marginal utility). Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Predicting fluid responsiveness with transthoracic echocardiography is not yet evidence based
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wetterslev, M; Haase, N; Johansen, R R
2013-01-01
an integrated tool in the intensive care unit, this systematic review examined studies evaluating the predictive value of TTE for fluid responsiveness. In October 2012, we searched Pubmed, EMBASE and Web of Science for studies evaluating the predictive value of TTE-derived variables for fluid responsiveness...... responsiveness. Of the 4294 evaluated citations, only one study fully met our inclusion criteria. In this study, the predictive value of variations in inferior vena cava diameter (> 16%) for fluid responsiveness was moderate with sensitivity of 71% [95% confidence interval (CI) 44-90], specificity of 100% (95......% CI 73-100) and an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.90 (95% CI 0.73-0.98). Only one study of TTE-based methods fulfilled the criteria for valid assessment of fluid responsiveness. Before recommending the use of TTE in predicting fluid responsiveness, proper evaluation including...
McIntyre, Shannon; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Carvalho, Bruno M
2017-03-24
Before 1996 the phlebotomine sand fly Lutzomyia neivai was usually treated as a synonym of the morphologically similar Lutzomyia intermedia, which has long been considered a vector of Leishmania braziliensis, the causative agent of much cutaneous leishmaniasis in South America. This report investigates the likely range changes of both sand fly species in response to a stabilisation climate change scenario (RCP4.5) and a high greenhouse gas emissions one (RCP8.5). Ecological niche modelling was used to identify areas of South America with climates currently suitable for each species, and then the future distributions of these climates were predicted based on climate change scenarios. Compared with the previous ecological niche model of L. intermedia (sensu lato) produced using the GARP algorithm in 2003, the current investigation modelled the two species separately, making use of verified presence records and additional records after 2001. Also, the new ensemble approach employed ecological niche modelling algorithms (including Maximum Entropy, Random Forests and Support Vector Machines) that have been widely adopted since 2003 and perform better than GARP, as well as using a more recent climate change model (HadGEM2) considered to have better performance at higher resolution than the earlier one (HadCM2). Lutzomyia intermedia was shown to be the more tropical of the two species, with its climatic niche defined by higher annual mean temperatures and lower temperature seasonality, in contrast to the more subtropical L. neivai. These different latitudinal ranges explain the two species' predicted responses to climate change by 2050, with L. intermedia mostly contracting its range (except perhaps in northeast Brazil) and L. neivai mostly shifting its range southwards in Brazil and Argentina. This contradicts the findings of the 2003 report, which predicted more range expansion. The different findings can be explained by the improved data sets and modelling methods. Our
Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science
Pau, Stephanie; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Betancourt, Julio L.; Cleland, Elsa E.
2011-01-01
Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology — the timing of life-history events. Phenology has well-demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species' reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.
Behavioral responses of three lemur species to different food enrichment devices.
Shapiro, Morgan E; Shapiro, Hannah G; Ehmke, Erin E
2018-05-01
Environmental enrichment is a tool used to promote the welfare and well-being of captive animals by encouraging the display of species-specific behaviors and reducing the stress or boredom induced by captive environments. Lemurs are highly endangered, yet few studies have analyzed the behavioral impacts of enrichment on captive populations. We studied the impacts of two novel enrichment devices on three lemur species (ring-tailed lemurs [Lemur catta], red-ruffed lemurs [Varecia rubra], and Coquerel's sifaka [Propithecus coquereli]) to determine both the overall and species-specific impacts of enrichment on lemur behavior. We recorded lemur behavior using the continuous sampling method to obtain behavior duration and analyzed our results using ANOVA Repeated Measures. Results showed enrichment effectiveness differed for each species and that different enrichment devices had varying impacts on lemur behavior across all species. We attributed the differences in species-specific responses to the unique locomotor patterns and methods of diet acquisition of each species, and the variances in behavioral responses across all species to the characteristics of each device. Our study highlights the importance of species-specific enrichment and encourages further research in this field in order to maximize the positive effects of enrichment, which in turn has the potential to affect the overall well-being of captive populations. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Supple, Megan Ann; Bragg, Jason G; Broadhurst, Linda M; Nicotra, Adrienne B; Byrne, Margaret; Andrew, Rose L; Widdup, Abigail; Aitken, Nicola C; Borevitz, Justin O
2018-04-24
As species face rapid environmental change, we can build resilient populations through restoration projects that incorporate predicted future climates into seed sourcing decisions. Eucalyptus melliodora is a foundation species of a critically endangered community in Australia that is a target for restoration. We examined genomic and phenotypic variation to make empirical based recommendations for seed sourcing. We examined isolation by distance and isolation by environment, determining high levels of gene flow extending for 500 km and correlations with climate and soil variables. Growth experiments revealed extensive phenotypic variation both within and among sampling sites, but no site-specific differentiation in phenotypic plasticity. Model predictions suggest that seed can be sourced broadly across the landscape, providing ample diversity for adaptation to environmental change. Application of our landscape genomic model to E. melliodora restoration projects can identify genomic variation suitable for predicted future climates, thereby increasing the long term probability of successful restoration. © 2018, Supple et al.
Equations for predicting biomass of six introduced tree species, island of Hawaii
Thomas H. Schukrt; Robert F. Strand; Thomas G. Cole; Katharine E. McDuffie
1988-01-01
Regression equations to predict total and stem-only above-ground dry biomass for six species (Acacia melanoxylon, Albizio falcataria, Eucalyptus globulus, E. grandis, E. robusta, and E. urophylla) were developed by felling and measuring 2- to 6-year-old...
Photosynthetic response to globally increasing CO2 of co-occurring temperate seagrass species.
Borum, Jens; Pedersen, Ole; Kotula, Lukasz; Fraser, Matthew W; Statton, John; Colmer, Timothy D; Kendrick, Gary A
2016-06-01
Photosynthesis of most seagrass species seems to be limited by present concentrations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Therefore, the ongoing increase in atmospheric CO2 could enhance seagrass photosynthesis and internal O2 supply, and potentially change species competition through differential responses to increasing CO2 availability among species. We used short-term photosynthetic responses of nine seagrass species from the south-west of Australia to test species-specific responses to enhanced CO2 and changes in HCO3 (-) . Net photosynthesis of all species except Zostera polychlamys were limited at pre-industrial compared to saturating CO2 levels at light saturation, suggesting that enhanced CO2 availability will enhance seagrass performance. Seven out of the nine species were efficient HCO3 (-) users through acidification of diffusive boundary layers, production of extracellular carbonic anhydrase, or uptake and internal conversion of HCO3 (-) . Species responded differently to near saturating CO2 implying that increasing atmospheric CO2 may change competition among seagrass species if co-occurring in mixed beds. Increasing CO2 availability also enhanced internal aeration in the one species assessed. We expect that future increases in atmospheric CO2 will have the strongest impact on seagrass recruits and sparsely vegetated beds, because densely vegetated seagrass beds are most often limited by light and not by inorganic carbon. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Münzbergová, Zuzana; Hadincová, Věroslava
2017-07-01
In spite of the increasing number of studies on the importance of transgenerational plasticity for species response to novel environments, its effects on species ability to respond to climate change are still largely unexplored. We study the importance of transgenerational plasticity for response of a clonal species Festuca rubra . Individuals from four natural populations representing two levels of temperature and two levels of precipitation were cultivated in four growth chambers that simulate the temperature and precipitation of origin of the populations (maternal phase). Each population was represented in each growth chamber. After 6 months, single young ramets of these plants were reshuffled among the growth chambers and let to grow for additional 2 months (offspring phase). The results show that transgenerational effects (i.e., maternal phase conditions) significantly modify species response to novel climates, and the direction and intensity of the response depend on the climate of origin of the plants. For traits related to recourse acquisition, the conditions of maternal phase, either alone or in interaction mainly with climate of origin, had stronger effect than the conditions of cultivation. Overall, the maternal climate interacted more intensively with the climate of origin than with the offspring climate. The direction of the effect of the maternal climate was of different directions and intensities depending on plant origin and trait studied. The data demonstrated strong significant effects of conditions during maternal phase on species response to novel climates. These transgenerational affects were, however, not adaptive. Still, transgenerational plasticity may be an important driver of species response to novel conditions across clonal generations. These effects thus need to be carefully considered in future studies exploring species response to novel climates. This will also have strong effects on species performance under increasingly variable
Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.
Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G
2016-07-01
Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. © 2016 John Wiley
Jager, D.T.; Posthuma, L.; Zwart, D.D.; van de Meent, D.
2007-01-01
Chemical risk assessment usually applies empirical methods to predict toxicant effects on different species. We propose a more mechanism-oriented approach, and introduce a method to decompose toxicity data in a contribution from the chemical (potency) and from the exposed species (vulnerability). We
Prediction of Dominant Forest Tree Species Using QuickBird and Environmental Data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Azadeh Abdollahnejad
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Modelling the spatial distribution of plants is one of the indirect methods for predicting the properties of plants and can be defined based on the relationship between the spatial distribution of vegetation and environmental variables. In this article, we introduce a new method for the spatial prediction of the dominant trees and species, through a combination of environmental and satellite data. Based on the basal area factor (BAF frequency for each tree species in a total of 518 sample plots, the dominant tree species were determined for each plot. Also, topographical maps of primary and secondary properties were prepared using the digital elevation model (DEM. Categories of soil and the climate maps database of the Doctor Bahramnia Forestry Plan were extracted as well. After pre-processing and processing of spectral data, the pixel values at the sample locations in all the independent factors such as spectral and non-spectral data, were extracted. The modelling rates of tree and shrub species diversity using data mining algorithms of 80% of the sampling plots were taken. Assessment of model accuracy was conducted using 20% of samples and evaluation criteria. Random forest (RF, support vector machine (SVM and k-nearest neighbor (k-NN algorithms were used for spatial distribution modelling of dominant species groups using environmental and spectral variables from 80% of the sample plots. Results showed physiographic factors, especially altitude in combination with soil and climate factors as the most important variables in the distribution of species, while the best model was created by the integration of physiographic factors (in combination with soil and climate with an overall accuracy of 63.85%. In addition, the results of the comparison between the algorithms, showed that the RF algorithm was the most accurate in modelling the diversity.
Light intensity modulates the response of two Antarctic diatom species to ocean acidification
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jasmin Pascale Heiden
2016-12-01
Full Text Available It is largely unknown how rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations and changes in the upper mixed layer depth, with its subsequent effects on light availability will affect phytoplankton physiology in the Southern Ocean. Linking seasonal variations in the availability of CO2 and light to abundances and physiological traits of key phytoplankton species could aid to understand their abilities to acclimate to predicted future climatic conditions. To investigate the combined effects of CO2 and light on two ecologically relevant Antarctic diatoms (Fragilariopsis curta and Odontella weisflogii a matrix of three light intensities (LL=20, ML=200, HL=500 µmol photons m-2 s-1 and three pCO2 levels (low=180, ambient=380, high=1000 µatm was applied assessing their effects on growth, particulate organic carbon (POC fixation and photophysiology. Under ambient pCO2, POC production rates were highest already at low light in Fragilariopsis, indicating saturation of photosynthesis, while in Odontella highest rates were only reached at medium irradiances. In both species ocean acidification did not stimulate, but rather inhibited, growth and POC production under low and medium light. This effect was, however, amended under high growth irradiances. Low pCO2 levels inhibited growth and POC production in both species at low and medium light, and further decreased absETRs under high light. Our results suggest that Southern Ocean diatoms were sensitive to changes in pCO2, showing species-specific responses, which were further modulated by light intensity. The two diatom species represent distinct ecotypes and revealed discrete physiological traits that matched their seasonal occurrence with the related physical conditions in Antarctic coastal waters.
Differential responses of cryptic bat species to the urban landscape.
Lintott, Paul R; Barlow, Kate; Bunnefeld, Nils; Briggs, Philip; Gajas Roig, Clara; Park, Kirsty J
2016-04-01
Urbanization is a key global driver in the modification of land use and has been linked to population declines even in widespread and relatively common species. Cities comprise a complex assortment of habitat types yet we know relatively little about the effects of their composition and spatial configuration on species distribution. Although many bat species exploit human resources, the majority of species are negatively impacted by urbanization. Here, we use data from the National Bat Monitoring Programme, a long-running citizen science scheme, to assess how two cryptic European bat species respond to the urban landscape. A total of 124 × 1 km(2) sites throughout Britain were surveyed. The landscape surrounding each site was mapped and classified into discrete biotope types (e.g., woodland). Generalized linear models were used to assess differences in the response to the urban environment between the two species, and which landscape factors were associated with the distributions of P. pipistrellus and P. pygmaeus. The relative prevalence of P. pygmaeus compared to P. pipistrellus was greater in urban landscapes with a higher density of rivers and lakes, whereas P. pipistrellus was frequently detected in landscapes comprising a high proportion of green space (e.g., parklands). Although P. pipistrellus is thought to be well adapted to the urban landscape, we found a strong negative response to urbanization at a relatively local scale (1 km), whilst P. pygmaeus was detected more regularly in wooded urban landscapes containing freshwater. These results show differential habitat use at a landscape scale of two morphologically similar species, indicating that cryptic species may respond differently to anthropogenic disturbance. Even species considered relatively common and well adapted to the urban landscape may respond negatively to the built environment highlighting the future challenges involved in maintaining biodiversity within an increasingly urbanized
Khalilieh, Anton; McCue, Marshall D; Pinshow, Berry
2012-09-01
Many wild birds fast during reproduction, molting, migration, or because of limited food availability. Species that are adapted to fasting sequentially oxidize endogenous fuels in three discrete phases. We hypothesized that species not adapted to long fasts have truncated, but otherwise similar, phases of fasting, sequential changes in fuel oxidization, and similar changes in blood metabolites to fasting-adapted species. We tested salient predictions in house sparrows (Passer domesticus biblicus), a subspecies that is unable to tolerate more than ~32 h of fasting. Our main hypothesis was that fasting sparrows sequentially oxidize substrates in the order carbohydrates, lipids, and protein. We dosed 24 house sparrows with [(13)C]glucose, palmitic acid, or glycine and measured (13)CO(2) in their breath while they fasted for 24 h. To ascertain whether blood metabolite levels reflect fasting-induced changes in metabolic fuels, we also measured glucose, triacylglycerides, and β-hydroxybutyrate in the birds' blood. The results of both breath (13)CO(2) and plasma metabolite analyses did not support our hypothesis; i.e., that sparrows have the same metabolic responses characteristic of fasting-adapted species, but on a shorter time scale. Contrary to our main prediction, we found that recently assimilated (13)C-tracers were oxidized continuously in different patterns with no definite peaks corresponding to the three phases of fasting and also that changes in plasma metabolite levels accurately tracked the changes found by breath analysis. Notably, the rate of recently assimilated [(13)C]glycine oxidization was significantly higher (P fast for longer than 32 h is likely related to their inability to accrue large lipid stores, separately oxidize different fuels, and/or spare protein during fasting.
Wei, Xiaojing; Savage, Jessica A; Riggs, Charlotte E; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine
2017-05-01
Environmental filtering is an important community assembly process influencing species distributions. Contrasting species abundance patterns along environmental gradients are commonly used to provide evidence for environmental filtering. However, the same abundance patterns may result from alternative or concurrent assembly processes. Experimental tests are an important means to decipher whether species fitness varies with environment, in the absence of dispersal constraints and biotic interactions, and to draw conclusions about the importance of environmental filtering in community assembly. We performed an experimental test of environmental filtering in 14 closely related willow and poplar species (family Salicaceae) by transplanting cuttings of each species into 40 common gardens established along a natural hydrologic gradient in the field, where competition was minimized and herbivory was controlled. We analyzed species fitness responses to the hydrologic environment based on cumulative growth and survival over two years using aster fitness models. We also examined variation in nine drought and flooding tolerance traits expected to contribute to performance based on a priori understanding of plant function in relation to water availability and stress. We found substantial evidence that environmental filtering along the hydrologic gradient played a critical role in determining species distributions. Fitness variation of each species in the field experiment was used to model their water table depth optima. These optima predicted 68% of the variation in species realized hydrologic niches based on peak abundance in naturally assembled communities in the surrounding region. Multiple traits associated with water transport efficiency and water stress tolerance were correlated with species hydrologic niches, but they did not necessarily covary with each other. As a consequence, species occupying similar hydrologic niches had different combinations of trait values
Pervasive phosphorus limitation of tree species but not communities in tropical forests
Turner, Benjamin L.; Brenes-Arguedas, Tania; Condit, Richard
2018-03-01
Phosphorus availability is widely assumed to limit primary productivity in tropical forests, but support for this paradigm is equivocal. Although biogeochemical theory predicts that phosphorus limitation should be prevalent on old, strongly weathered soils, experimental manipulations have failed to detect a consistent response to phosphorus addition in species-rich lowland tropical forests. Here we show, by quantifying the growth of 541 tropical tree species across a steep natural phosphorus gradient in Panama, that phosphorus limitation is widespread at the level of individual species and strengthens markedly below a threshold of two parts per million exchangeable soil phosphate. However, this pervasive species-specific phosphorus limitation does not translate into a community-wide response, because some species grow rapidly on infertile soils despite extremely low phosphorus availability. These results redefine our understanding of nutrient limitation in diverse plant communities and have important implications for attempts to predict the response of tropical forests to environmental change.
Metabolomics biomarkers to predict acamprosate treatment response in alcohol-dependent subjects.
Hinton, David J; Vázquez, Marely Santiago; Geske, Jennifer R; Hitschfeld, Mario J; Ho, Ada M C; Karpyak, Victor M; Biernacka, Joanna M; Choi, Doo-Sup
2017-05-31
Precision medicine for alcohol use disorder (AUD) allows optimal treatment of the right patient with the right drug at the right time. Here, we generated multivariable models incorporating clinical information and serum metabolite levels to predict acamprosate treatment response. The sample of 120 patients was randomly split into a training set (n = 80) and test set (n = 40) five independent times. Treatment response was defined as complete abstinence (no alcohol consumption during 3 months of acamprosate treatment) while nonresponse was defined as any alcohol consumption during this period. In each of the five training sets, we built a predictive model using a least absolute shrinkage and section operator (LASSO) penalized selection method and then evaluated the predictive performance of each model in the corresponding test set. The models predicted acamprosate treatment response with a mean sensitivity and specificity in the test sets of 0.83 and 0.31, respectively, suggesting our model performed well at predicting responders, but not non-responders (i.e. many non-responders were predicted to respond). Studies with larger sample sizes and additional biomarkers will expand the clinical utility of predictive algorithms for pharmaceutical response in AUD.
An observation on the variance of a predicted response in ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
... these properties and computational simplicity. To avoid over fitting, along with the obvious advantage of having a simpler equation, it is shown that the addition of a variable to a regression equation does not reduce the variance of a predicted response. Key words: Linear regression; Partitioned matrix; Predicted response ...
Regional climate model downscaling may improve the prediction of alien plant species distributions
Liu, Shuyan; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Gao, Wei; Stohlgren, Thomas J.
2014-12-01
Distributions of invasive species are commonly predicted with species distribution models that build upon the statistical relationships between observed species presence data and climate data. We used field observations, climate station data, and Maximum Entropy species distribution models for 13 invasive plant species in the United States, and then compared the models with inputs from a General Circulation Model (hereafter GCM-based models) and a downscaled Regional Climate Model (hereafter, RCM-based models).We also compared species distributions based on either GCM-based or RCM-based models for the present (1990-1999) to the future (2046-2055). RCM-based species distribution models replicated observed distributions remarkably better than GCM-based models for all invasive species under the current climate. This was shown for the presence locations of the species, and by using four common statistical metrics to compare modeled distributions. For two widespread invasive taxa ( Bromus tectorum or cheatgrass, and Tamarix spp. or tamarisk), GCM-based models failed miserably to reproduce observed species distributions. In contrast, RCM-based species distribution models closely matched observations. Future species distributions may be significantly affected by using GCM-based inputs. Because invasive plants species often show high resilience and low rates of local extinction, RCM-based species distribution models may perform better than GCM-based species distribution models for planning containment programs for invasive species.
Influential Factors for Accurate Load Prediction in a Demand Response Context
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wollsen, Morten Gill; Kjærgaard, Mikkel Baun; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard
2016-01-01
Accurate prediction of a buildings electricity load is crucial to respond to Demand Response events with an assessable load change. However, previous work on load prediction lacks to consider a wider set of possible data sources. In this paper we study different data scenarios to map the influence....... Next, the time of day that is being predicted greatly influence the prediction which is related to the weather pattern. By presenting these results we hope to improve the modeling of building loads and algorithms for Demand Response planning.......Accurate prediction of a buildings electricity load is crucial to respond to Demand Response events with an assessable load change. However, previous work on load prediction lacks to consider a wider set of possible data sources. In this paper we study different data scenarios to map the influence...
Iler, Amy M.; Høye, Toke T.; Inouye, David W.; Schmidt, Niels M.
2013-01-01
Many alpine and subalpine plant species exhibit phenological advancements in association with earlier snowmelt. While the phenology of some plant species does not advance beyond a threshold snowmelt date, the prevalence of such threshold phenological responses within plant communities is largely unknown. We therefore examined the shape of flowering phenology responses (linear versus nonlinear) to climate using two long-term datasets from plant communities in snow-dominated environments: Gothic, CO, USA (1974–2011) and Zackenberg, Greenland (1996–2011). For a total of 64 species, we determined whether a linear or nonlinear regression model best explained interannual variation in flowering phenology in response to increasing temperatures and advancing snowmelt dates. The most common nonlinear trend was for species to flower earlier as snowmelt advanced, with either no change or a slower rate of change when snowmelt was early (average 20% of cases). By contrast, some species advanced their flowering at a faster rate over the warmest temperatures relative to cooler temperatures (average 5% of cases). Thus, some species seem to be approaching their limits of phenological change in response to snowmelt but not temperature. Such phenological thresholds could either be a result of minimum springtime photoperiod cues for flowering or a slower rate of adaptive change in flowering time relative to changing climatic conditions. PMID:23836793
Using Google Earth Surface Metrics to Predict Plant Species Richness in a Complex Landscape
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Sebastián Block
2016-10-01
Full Text Available Google Earth provides a freely available, global mosaic of high-resolution imagery from different sensors that has become popular in environmental and ecological studies. However, such imagery lacks the near-infrared band often used in studying vegetation, thus its potential for estimating vegetation properties remains unclear. In this study, we assess the potential of Google Earth imagery to describe and predict vegetation attributes. Further, we compare it to the potential of SPOT imagery, which has additional spectral information. We measured basal area, vegetation height, crown cover, density of individuals, and species richness in 60 plots in the oak forests of a complex volcanic landscape in central Mexico. We modelled each vegetation attribute as a function of surface metrics derived from Google Earth and SPOT images, and selected the best-supported linear models from each source. Total species richness was the best-described and predicted variable: the best Google Earth-based model explained nearly as much variation in species richness as its SPOT counterpart (R2 = 0.44 and 0.51, respectively. However, Google Earth metrics emerged as poor predictors of all remaining vegetation attributes, whilst SPOT metrics showed potential for predicting vegetation height. We conclude that Google Earth imagery can be used to estimate species richness in complex landscapes. As it is freely available, Google Earth can broaden the use of remote sensing by researchers and managers in low-income tropical countries where most biodiversity hotspots are found.
Assessing Prediction Performance of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Response in Bladder Cancer
Cremer, Chris
2016-01-01
Neoadjuvant chemotherapy is a treatment routinely prescribed to patients diagnosed with muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Unfortunately, not all patients are responsive to this treatment and would greatly benefit from an accurate prediction of their expected response to chemotherapy. In this project, I attempt to develop a model that will predict response using tumour microarray data. I show that using my dataset, every method is insufficient at accurately classifying responders and non-respond...
Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora
2018-01-01
Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Franziska Eller
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Phragmites australis is a cosmopolitan grass and often the dominant species in the ecosystems it inhabits. Due to high intraspecific diversity and phenotypic plasticity, P. australis has an extensive ecological amplitude and a great capacity to acclimate to adverse environmental conditions; it can therefore offer valuable insights into plant responses to global change. Here we review the ecology and ecophysiology of prominent P. australis lineages and their responses to multiple forms of global change. Key findings of our review are that: (1 P. australis lineages are well-adapted to regions of their phylogeographic origin and therefore respond differently to changes in climatic conditions such as temperature or atmospheric CO2; (2 each lineage consists of populations that may occur in geographically different habitats and contain multiple genotypes; (3 the phenotypic plasticity of functional and fitness-related traits of a genotype determine the responses to global change factors; (4 genotypes with high plasticity to environmental drivers may acclimate or even vastly expand their ranges, genotypes of medium plasticity must acclimate or experience range-shifts, and those with low plasticity may face local extinction; (5 responses to ancillary types of global change, like shifting levels of soil salinity, flooding, and drought, are not consistent within lineages and depend on adaptation of individual genotypes. These patterns suggest that the diverse lineages of P. australis will undergo intense selective pressure in the face of global change such that the distributions and interactions of co-occurring lineages, as well as those of genotypes within-lineages, are very likely to be altered. We propose that the strong latitudinal clines within and between P. australis lineages can be a useful tool for predicting plant responses to climate change in general and present a conceptual framework for using P. australis lineages to predict plant responses
Meynard, Christine N; Migeon, Alain; Navajas, Maria
2013-01-01
Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi), an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1) species prevalence; (2) modelling method; and (3) variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive threat
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christine N Meynard
Full Text Available Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi, an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1 species prevalence; (2 modelling method; and (3 variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive
PDEAR model prediction of Protea species in years 2070-2100
Guo, Danni; Guo, Renkuan; Midgley, Guy F.; Rebelo, A. G.
2009-10-01
Global warming and climate changes are changing the environment and therefore changing the distribution and behaviour of the plant species. Plant species often move and change their distributions as they find their original habitats are no longer suitable to their needs. It is therefore important to establish a statistical model to catch up the movement and patterns of the endangered species in order to effectively manage environmental protection under the inevitable biodiversity changes that are taking place. In this paper, we are focusing on the population category of rare Proteas that has an estimated population size from 1 to 10 per sample site, which is very small. We used the partial differential equation associated regression (PDEAR) model, which merges the partial differential equation theory, (statistical) linear model theory and random fuzzy variable theory together into a efficient small-sample oriented model, for the spatial pattern changing analysis. The regression component in a PDEAR model is in nature a special random fuzzy multivariate regression model. We developed a bivariate model for investigating the impacts from rainfall and temperature on the Protea species in average sense in the population size of 1 to 10, in the Cape Floristic Region, from 1992 to 2002, South Africa. Under same the average biodiversity structure assumptions, we explore the future spatial change patterns of Protea species in the population size of 1 to 10 with future (average) predicted rainfall and temperature. The spatial distribution and patterns are clearly will help us to explore global climate changing impacts on endangered species.
Striatal Activation Predicts Differential Therapeutic Responses to Methylphenidate and Atomoxetine.
Schulz, Kurt P; Bédard, Anne-Claude V; Fan, Jin; Hildebrandt, Thomas B; Stein, Mark A; Ivanov, Iliyan; Halperin, Jeffrey M; Newcorn, Jeffrey H
2017-07-01
Methylphenidate has prominent effects in the dopamine-rich striatum that are absent for the selective norepinephrine transporter inhibitor atomoxetine. This study tested whether baseline striatal activation would predict differential response to the two medications in youth with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). A total of 36 youth with ADHD performed a Go/No-Go test during functional magnetic resonance imaging at baseline and were treated with methylphenidate and atomoxetine using a randomized cross-over design. Whole-brain task-related activation was regressed on clinical response. Task-related activation in right caudate nucleus was predicted by an interaction of clinical responses to methylphenidate and atomoxetine (F 1,30 = 17.00; p atomoxetine. The rate of robust response was higher for methylphenidate than for atomoxetine in youth with high (94.4% vs. 38.8%; p = .003; number needed to treat = 2, 95% CI = 1.31-3.73) but not low (33.3% vs. 50.0%; p = .375) caudate activation. Furthermore, response to atomoxetine predicted motor cortex activation (F 1,30 = 14.99; p atomoxetine in youth with ADHD, purportedly reflecting the dopaminergic effects of methylphenidate but not atomoxetine in the striatum, whereas motor cortex activation may predict response to atomoxetine. These data do not yet translate directly to the clinical setting, but the approach is potentially important for informing future research and illustrates that it may be possible to predict differential treatment response using a biomarker-driven approach. Stimulant Versus Nonstimulant Medication for Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in Children; https://clinicaltrials.gov/; NCT00183391. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Response predictions using the observed autocorrelation function
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Ulrik Dam; H. Brodtkorb, Astrid; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher
2018-01-01
This article studies a procedure that facilitates short-time, deterministic predictions of the wave-induced motion of a marine vessel, where it is understood that the future motion of the vessel is calculated ahead of time. Such predictions are valuable to assist in the execution of many marine......-induced response in study. Thus, predicted (future) values ahead of time for a given time history recording are computed through a mathematical combination of the sample autocorrelation function and previous measurements recorded just prior to the moment of action. Importantly, the procedure does not need input...... show that predictions can be successfully made in a time horizon corresponding to about 8-9 wave periods ahead of current time (the moment of action)....
Unveiling common responses of Medicago truncatula to appropriate and inappropriate rust species
Vaz Patto, Maria Carlota; Rubiales, Diego
2014-01-01
Little is known about the nature of effective defense mechanisms in legumes to pathogens of remotely related plant species. Some rust species are among pathogens with broad host range causing dramatic losses in various crop plants. To understand and compare the different host and nonhost resistance (NHR) responses of legume species against rusts, we characterized the reaction of the model legume Medicago truncatula to one appropriate (Uromyces striatus) and two inappropriate (U. viciae-fabae and U. lupinicolus) rusts. We found that similar pre and post-haustorial mechanisms of resistance appear to be operative in M. truncatula against appropriate and inappropriate rust fungus. The appropriate U. striatus germinated better on M. truncatula accessions then the inappropriate U. viciae-fabae and U. lupinicolus, but once germinated, germ tubes of the three rusts had a similar level of success in finding stomata and forming an appressoria over a stoma. However, responses to different inappropriate rust species also showed some specificity, suggesting a combination of non-specific and specific responses underlying this legume NHR to rust fungi. Further genetic and expression analysis studies will contribute to the development of the necessary molecular tools to use the present information on host and NHR mechanisms to breed for broad-spectrum resistance to rust in legume species. PMID:25426128
Unveiling common responses of Medicago truncatula to appropriate and inappropriate rust species
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maria Carlota eVaz Patto
2014-11-01
Full Text Available Little is known about the nature of effective defense mechanisms in legumes to pathogens of remotely related plant species. Some rust species are among pathogens with broad host range causing dramatic losses in various crop plants. To understand and compare the different host and nonhost resistance responses of legume species against rusts, we characterized the reaction of the model legume Medicago truncatula to one appropriate (Uromyces striatus and two inappropriate (U. viciae-fabae and U. lupinicolus rusts. We found that similar pre and post-haustorial mechanisms of resistance appear to be operative in M. truncatula against appropriate and inappropriate rust fungus. The appropriate U. striatus germinated better on M. truncatula accessions then the inappropriate U. viciae-fabae and U. lupinicolus, but once germinated, germ tubes of the three rusts had a similar level of success in finding stomata and forming an appressoria over a stoma. However responses to different inappropriate rust species also showed some specificity, suggesting a combination of non specific and specific responses underlying this legume nonhost resistance to rust fungi. Further genetic and expression analysis studies will contribute to the development of the necessary molecular tools to use the present information on host and nonhost resistance mechanisms to breed for broad-spectrum resistance to rust in legume species.
Drug response prediction in high-risk multiple myeloma
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vangsted, A J; Helm-Petersen, S; Cowland, J B
2018-01-01
from high-risk patients by GEP70 at diagnosis from Total Therapy 2 and 3A to predict the response by the DRP score of drugs used in the treatment of myeloma patients. The DRP score stratified patients further. High-risk myeloma with a predicted sensitivity to melphalan by the DRP score had a prolonged...
Cross-Species Extrapolation of Models for Predicting Lead Transfer from Soil to Wheat Grain.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ke Liu
Full Text Available The transfer of Pb from the soil to crops is a serious food hygiene security problem in China because of industrial, agricultural, and historical contamination. In this study, the characteristics of exogenous Pb transfer from 17 Chinese soils to a popular wheat variety (Xiaoyan 22 were investigated. In addition, bioaccumulation prediction models of Pb in grain were obtained based on soil properties. The results of the analysis showed that pH and OC were the most important factors contributing to Pb uptake by wheat grain. Using a cross-species extrapolation approach, the Pb uptake prediction models for cultivar Xiaoyan 22 in different soil Pb levels were satisfactorily applied to six additional non-modeled wheat varieties to develop a prediction model for each variety. Normalization of the bioaccumulation factor (BAF to specific soil physico-chemistry is essential, because doing so could significantly reduce the intra-species variation of different wheat cultivars in predicted Pb transfer and eliminate the influence of soil properties on ecotoxicity parameters for organisms of interest. Finally, the prediction models were successfully verified against published data (including other wheat varieties and crops and used to evaluate the ecological risk of Pb for wheat in contaminated agricultural soils.
A general framework for predicting delayed responses of ecological communities to habitat loss.
Chen, Youhua; Shen, Tsung-Jen
2017-04-20
Although biodiversity crisis at different spatial scales has been well recognised, the phenomena of extinction debt and immigration credit at a crossing-scale context are, at best, unclear. Based on two community patterns, regional species abundance distribution (SAD) and spatial abundance distribution (SAAD), Kitzes and Harte (2015) presented a macroecological framework for predicting post-disturbance delayed extinction patterns in the entire ecological community. In this study, we further expand this basic framework to predict diverse time-lagged effects of habitat destruction on local communities. Specifically, our generalisation of KH's model could address the questions that could not be answered previously: (1) How many species are subjected to delayed extinction in a local community when habitat is destructed in other areas? (2) How do rare or endemic species contribute to extinction debt or immigration credit of the local community? (3) How will species differ between two local areas? From the demonstrations using two SAD models (single-parameter lognormal and logseries), the predicted patterns of the debt, credit, and change in the fraction of unique species can vary, but with consistencies and depending on several factors. The general framework deepens the understanding of the theoretical effects of habitat loss on community dynamic patterns in local samples.
Predicting and measuring fluid responsiveness with echocardiography
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ashley Miller
2016-06-01
Full Text Available Echocardiography is ideally suited to guide fluid resuscitation in critically ill patients. It can be used to assess fluid responsiveness by looking at the left ventricle, aortic outflow, inferior vena cava and right ventricle. Static measurements and dynamic variables based on heart–lung interactions all combine to predict and measure fluid responsiveness and assess response to intravenous fluid esuscitation. Thorough knowledge of these variables, the physiology behind them and the pitfalls in their use allows the echocardiographer to confidently assess these patients and in combination with clinical judgement manage them appropriately.
Urbanization impacts on mammals across urban-forest edges and a predictive model of edge effects.
Villaseñor, Nélida R; Driscoll, Don A; Escobar, Martín A H; Gibbons, Philip; Lindenmayer, David B
2014-01-01
With accelerating rates of urbanization worldwide, a better understanding of ecological processes at the wildland-urban interface is critical to conserve biodiversity. We explored the effects of high and low-density housing developments on forest-dwelling mammals. Based on habitat characteristics, we expected a gradual decline in species abundance across forest-urban edges and an increased decline rate in higher contrast edges. We surveyed arboreal mammals in sites of high and low housing density along 600 m transects that spanned urban areas and areas turn on adjacent native forest. We also surveyed forest controls to test whether edge effects extended beyond our edge transects. We fitted models describing richness, total abundance and individual species abundance. Low-density housing developments provided suitable habitat for most arboreal mammals. In contrast, high-density housing developments had lower species richness, total abundance and individual species abundance, but supported the highest abundances of an urban adapter (Trichosurus vulpecula). We did not find the predicted gradual decline in species abundance. Of four species analysed, three exhibited no response to the proximity of urban boundaries, but spilled over into adjacent urban habitat to differing extents. One species (Petaurus australis) had an extended negative response to urban boundaries, suggesting that urban development has impacts beyond 300 m into adjacent forest. Our empirical work demonstrates that high-density housing developments have negative effects on both community and species level responses, except for one urban adapter. We developed a new predictive model of edge effects based on our results and the literature. To predict animal responses across edges, our framework integrates for first time: (1) habitat quality/preference, (2) species response with the proximity to the adjacent habitat, and (3) spillover extent/sensitivity to adjacent habitat boundaries. This framework will
Model Predictive Control based on Finite Impulse Response Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Prasath, Guru; Jørgensen, John Bagterp
2008-01-01
We develop a regularized l2 finite impulse response (FIR) predictive controller with input and input-rate constraints. Feedback is based on a simple constant output disturbance filter. The performance of the predictive controller in the face of plant-model mismatch is investigated by simulations...... and related to the uncertainty of the impulse response coefficients. The simulations can be used to benchmark l2 MPC against FIR based robust MPC as well as to estimate the maximum performance improvements by robust MPC....
Gogol-Prokurat, Melanie
2011-01-01
If species distribution models (SDMs) can rank habitat suitability at a local scale, they may be a valuable conservation planning tool for rare, patchily distributed species. This study assessed the ability of Maxent, an SDM reported to be appropriate for modeling rare species, to rank habitat suitability at a local scale for four edaphic endemic rare plants of gabbroic soils in El Dorado County, California, and examined the effects of grain size, spatial extent, and fine-grain environmental predictors on local-scale model accuracy. Models were developed using species occurrence data mapped on public lands and were evaluated using an independent data set of presence and absence locations on surrounding lands, mimicking a typical conservation-planning scenario that prioritizes potential habitat on unsurveyed lands surrounding known occurrences. Maxent produced models that were successful at discriminating between suitable and unsuitable habitat at the local scale for all four species, and predicted habitat suitability values were proportional to likelihood of occurrence or population abundance for three of four species. Unfortunately, models with the best discrimination (i.e., AUC) were not always the most useful for ranking habitat suitability. The use of independent test data showed metrics that were valuable for evaluating which variables and model choices (e.g., grain, extent) to use in guiding habitat prioritization for conservation of these species. A goodness-of-fit test was used to determine whether habitat suitability values ranked habitat suitability on a continuous scale. If they did not, a minimum acceptable error predicted area criterion was used to determine the threshold for classifying habitat as suitable or unsuitable. I found a trade-off between model extent and the use of fine-grain environmental variables: goodness of fit was improved at larger extents, and fine-grain environmental variables improved local-scale accuracy, but fine-grain variables
Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty.
Freer, Jennifer J; Partridge, Julian C; Tarling, Geraint A; Collins, Martin A; Genner, Martin J
2018-01-01
Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica . Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.
Advanced Computational Modeling Approaches for Shock Response Prediction
Derkevorkian, Armen; Kolaini, Ali R.; Peterson, Lee
2015-01-01
Motivation: (1) The activation of pyroshock devices such as explosives, separation nuts, pin-pullers, etc. produces high frequency transient structural response, typically from few tens of Hz to several hundreds of kHz. (2) Lack of reliable analytical tools makes the prediction of appropriate design and qualification test levels a challenge. (3) In the past few decades, several attempts have been made to develop methodologies that predict the structural responses to shock environments. (4) Currently, there is no validated approach that is viable to predict shock environments overt the full frequency range (i.e., 100 Hz to 10 kHz). Scope: (1) Model, analyze, and interpret space structural systems with complex interfaces and discontinuities, subjected to shock loads. (2) Assess the viability of a suite of numerical tools to simulate transient, non-linear solid mechanics and structural dynamics problems, such as shock wave propagation.
M?nzbergov?, Zuzana; Hadincov?, V?roslava
2017-01-01
Abstract In spite of the increasing number of studies on the importance of transgenerational plasticity for species response to novel environments, its effects on species ability to respond to climate change are still largely unexplored. We study the importance of transgenerational plasticity for response of a clonal species Festuca rubra. Individuals from four natural populations representing two levels of temperature and two levels of precipitation were cultivated in four growth chambers th...
Responses of evergreen and deciduous Quercus species to enhanced ozone levels
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Calatayud, Vicent; Cervero, Julia; Calvo, Esperanza; Garcia-Breijo, Francisco-Jose; Reig-Arminana, Jose; Sanz, Maria Jose
2011-01-01
Plants of one evergreen oak (Quercus ilex) and three deciduous oaks (Q. faginea, with small leaves; Q. pyrenaica and Q. robur, with large leaves) were exposed both to filtered air and to enhanced ozone levels in Open-Top Chambers. Q. faginea and Q. pyrenaica were studied for the first time. Based on visible injury, gas exchange, chlorophyll content and biomass responses, Q. pyrenaica was the most sensitive species, and Q. ilex was the most tolerant, followed by Q. faginea. Functional leaf traits of the species were related to differences in sensitivity, while accumulated ozone flux via stomata (POD 1.6 ) partly contributed to the observed differences. For risk assessment of Mediterranean vegetation, the diversity of responses detected in this study should be taken into account, applying appropriate critical levels. - Ozone tolerance overlapped with leaf traits in four Quercus species.
Responses of evergreen and deciduous Quercus species to enhanced ozone levels
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Calatayud, Vicent, E-mail: calatayud_viclor@gva.e [Instituto Universitario CEAM-UMH, Charles R. Darwin 14, Parc Tecnologic, 46980 Paterna, Valencia (Spain); Cervero, Julia; Calvo, Esperanza [Instituto Universitario CEAM-UMH, Charles R. Darwin 14, Parc Tecnologic, 46980 Paterna, Valencia (Spain); Garcia-Breijo, Francisco-Jose [Laboratorio de Anatomia e Histologia Vegetal ' Julio Iranzo' , Jardin Botanico, Universitat de Valencia, c/Quart 80, 46008 Valencia (Spain); Departamento de Ecosistemas Agroforestales, Escuela Tecnica Superior del Medio Rural y Enologia, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, Avda. Blasco Ibanez 21, 46010 Valencia (Spain); Reig-Arminana, Jose [Departamento de Ecosistemas Agroforestales, Escuela Tecnica Superior del Medio Rural y Enologia, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, Avda. Blasco Ibanez 21, 46010 Valencia (Spain); Sanz, Maria Jose [Instituto Universitario CEAM-UMH, Charles R. Darwin 14, Parc Tecnologic, 46980 Paterna, Valencia (Spain)
2011-01-15
Plants of one evergreen oak (Quercus ilex) and three deciduous oaks (Q. faginea, with small leaves; Q. pyrenaica and Q. robur, with large leaves) were exposed both to filtered air and to enhanced ozone levels in Open-Top Chambers. Q. faginea and Q. pyrenaica were studied for the first time. Based on visible injury, gas exchange, chlorophyll content and biomass responses, Q. pyrenaica was the most sensitive species, and Q. ilex was the most tolerant, followed by Q. faginea. Functional leaf traits of the species were related to differences in sensitivity, while accumulated ozone flux via stomata (POD{sub 1.6}) partly contributed to the observed differences. For risk assessment of Mediterranean vegetation, the diversity of responses detected in this study should be taken into account, applying appropriate critical levels. - Ozone tolerance overlapped with leaf traits in four Quercus species.
Predictive models of threatened plant species distribution in the Iberian arid south-east
Benito, Blas M.
2013-01-01
Poster on the distribution of three rare, endemic and endangered annual plants of arid zones in the south-eastern Iberian peninsula. Presented in the workshop "Predictive Modelling of Species Distribution: New Tools for the XXI Century (Baeza, Spain, november 2005).
Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Miranda C Jones
Full Text Available Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis and angelshark (Squatina squatina.
Kannenberg, Steven A; Phillips, Richard P
2017-03-01
Trees possess myriad adaptations for coping with drought stress, but the extent to which their drought responses are influenced by interactions with soil microbes is poorly understood. To explore the role of microbes in mediating tree responses to drought stress, we exposed saplings of three species (Acer saccharum, Liriodendron tulipifera, and Quercus alba) to a four week experimental drought in mesocosms. Half of the pots were inoculated with a live soil slurry (i.e., a microbial inoculum derived from soils beneath the canopies of mature A. saccharum, L. tulipifera or Q. alba stands), while the other half of the pots received a sterile soil slurry. Soil microbes ameliorated drought stress in L. tulipifera by minimizing reductions in leaf water potential and by reducing photosynthetic declines. In A. saccharum, soil microbes reduced drought stress by lessening declines in leaf water potential, though these changes did not buffer the trees from declining photosynthetic rates. In Q. alba, soil microbes had no effects on leaf physiological parameters during drought stress. In all species, microbes had no significant effects on dynamic C allocation during drought stress, suggesting that microbial effects on plant physiology were unrelated to source-sink dynamics. Collectively, our results suggest that soil microbes have the potential to alter key parameters that are used to diagnose drought sensitivity (i.e., isohydry or anisohydry). To the extent that our results reflect dynamics occurring in forests, a revised perspective on plant hydraulic strategies that considers root-microbe interactions may lead to improved predictions of forest vulnerability to drought.
Haqiqi, M. T.; Yuliansyah; Suwinarti, W.; Amirta, R.
2018-04-01
Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) system is an option to provide renewable and sustainable feedstock in generating electricity for rural area. Here in this study, we focussed on application of Response Surface Methodology (RSM) to simplify calculation protocols to point out wood chip production and energy potency from some tropical SRC species identified as Bauhinia purpurea, Bridelia tomentosa, Calliandra calothyrsus, Fagraea racemosa, Gliricidia sepium, Melastoma malabathricum, Piper aduncum, Vernonia amygdalina, Vernonia arborea and Vitex pinnata. The result showed that the highest calorific value was obtained from V. pinnata wood (19.97 MJ kg-1) due to its high lignin content (29.84 %, w/w). Our findings also indicated that the use of RSM for estimating energy-electricity of SRC wood had significant term regarding to the quadratic model (R2 = 0.953), whereas the solid-chip ratio prediction was accurate (R2 = 1.000). In the near future, the simple formula will be promising to calculate energy production easily from woody biomass, especially from SRC species.
Stephen N. Matthews; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters
2011-01-01
Mounting evidence shows that organisms have already begun to respond to global climate change. Advances in our knowledge of how climate shapes species distributional patterns has helped us better understand the response of birds to climate change. However, the distribution of birds across the landscape is also driven by biotic and abiotic components, including habitat...
Predicting Achievable Fundamental Frequency Ranges in Vocalization Across Species.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ingo Titze
2016-06-01
Full Text Available Vocal folds are used as sound sources in various species, but it is unknown how vocal fold morphologies are optimized for different acoustic objectives. Here we identify two main variables affecting range of vocal fold vibration frequency, namely vocal fold elongation and tissue fiber stress. A simple vibrating string model is used to predict fundamental frequency ranges across species of different vocal fold sizes. While average fundamental frequency is predominantly determined by vocal fold length (larynx size, range of fundamental frequency is facilitated by (1 laryngeal muscles that control elongation and by (2 nonlinearity in tissue fiber tension. One adaptation that would increase fundamental frequency range is greater freedom in joint rotation or gliding of two cartilages (thyroid and cricoid, so that vocal fold length change is maximized. Alternatively, tissue layers can develop to bear a disproportionate fiber tension (i.e., a ligament with high density collagen fibers, increasing the fundamental frequency range and thereby vocal versatility. The range of fundamental frequency across species is thus not simply one-dimensional, but can be conceptualized as the dependent variable in a multi-dimensional morphospace. In humans, this could allow for variations that could be clinically important for voice therapy and vocal fold repair. Alternative solutions could also have importance in vocal training for singing and other highly-skilled vocalizations.
Female social response to male sexual harassment in poeciliid fish: a comparison of six species
Dadda, Marco
2015-01-01
Sexual harassment is common among poeciliid fish. In some fishes, males show a high frequency of sneak copulation; such sexual activity is costly to the females in terms of foraging efficiency. In mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki), when males are present, the distance between females tends to decrease, and this behavior has been interpreted as an adaptive strategy to dilute the costs of male sexual activity. In this study, the tendency to reduce distance in the presence of a male has been investigated in females of six poeciliid species (Girardinus metallicus, Girardinus falcatus, G. holbrooki, Poecilia reticulata, Xiphophorus hellerii, and Xiphophorus mayae) that exhibit different male mating strategies and different levels of sexual activity. Results revealed large interspecific differences in the pattern of female aggregation. Females of species with a high frequency of sneak copulations tended to reduce their social distance in the presence of a male. By contrast, species that rely mainly on courtship showed little or no variation in social distance. The proportion of sneak copulations predicts the degree of variation in female social response, but the amount of total sexual activity does not, suggesting that the change in females' social distance when a male is present may indeed serve to reduce the costs of male sexual harassment. PMID:26483719
Female social response to male sexual harassment in poeciliid fish: A comparison of six species
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marco eDadda
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Sexual harassment is common among poeciliid fish. In some fishes, males show a high frequency of sneak copulation; such sexual activity is costly to the females in terms of foraging efficiency. In mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki, when males are present, the distance between females tends to decrease, and this behavior has been interpreted as an adaptive strategy to dilute the costs of male sexual activity. In this study, the tendency to reduce distance in the presence of a male has been investigated in females of 6 poeciliid species (Girardinus metallicus, Girardinus falcatus, Gambusia holbrooki, Poecilia reticulata, Xiphophorus hellerii and Xiphophorus mayae that exhibit different male mating strategies and different levels of sexual activity. Results revealed large interspecific differences in the pattern of female aggregation. Females of species with a high frequency of sneak copulations tended to reduce their social distance in the presence of a male. By contrast, species that rely mainly on courtship showed little or no variation in social distance. The proportion of sneak copulations predicts the degree of variation in female social response, but the amount of total sexual activity does not, suggesting that the change in females’ social distance when a male is present may indeed serve to reduce the costs of male sexual harassment.
Female social response to male sexual harassment in poeciliid fish: a comparison of six species.
Dadda, Marco
2015-01-01
Sexual harassment is common among poeciliid fish. In some fishes, males show a high frequency of sneak copulation; such sexual activity is costly to the females in terms of foraging efficiency. In mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki), when males are present, the distance between females tends to decrease, and this behavior has been interpreted as an adaptive strategy to dilute the costs of male sexual activity. In this study, the tendency to reduce distance in the presence of a male has been investigated in females of six poeciliid species (Girardinus metallicus, Girardinus falcatus, G. holbrooki, Poecilia reticulata, Xiphophorus hellerii, and Xiphophorus mayae) that exhibit different male mating strategies and different levels of sexual activity. Results revealed large interspecific differences in the pattern of female aggregation. Females of species with a high frequency of sneak copulations tended to reduce their social distance in the presence of a male. By contrast, species that rely mainly on courtship showed little or no variation in social distance. The proportion of sneak copulations predicts the degree of variation in female social response, but the amount of total sexual activity does not, suggesting that the change in females' social distance when a male is present may indeed serve to reduce the costs of male sexual harassment.
Response prediction of long flexible risers subject to forced harmonic vibration
Riveros, Carlos Alberto; Utsunomiya, Tomoaki; Maeda, Katsuya; Itoh, Kazuaki
2010-01-01
Several research efforts have been directed toward the development of models for response prediction of flexible risers. The main difficulties arise from the fact that the dynamic response of flexible risers involves highly nonlinear behavior and a self-regulated process. This article presents a quasi-steady approach for response prediction of oscillating flexible risers. Amplitude-dependent lift coefficients are considered, as is an increased mean drag coefficient model during synchronizatio...
Biological review of 82 species of coral petitioned to be included in the Endangered Species Act
Brainard, Russell E.; Birkeland, Charles; Eakin, C. Mark; McElhany, Paul; Miller, Margaret W.; Patterson, Matt; Piniak, G.A.
2011-01-01
list 83 coral species as threatened or endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The petition was based on a predicted decline in available habitat for the species, citing anthropogenic climate change and ocean acidification as the lead factors among the various stressors responsible for the potential decline. The NMFS identified 82 of the corals as candidate species, finding that the petition provided substantive information for a potential listing of these species. The NMFS established a Biological Review Team (BRT) to prepare this Status Review Report that examines the status of these 82 candidate coral species and evaluates extinction risk for each of them. This document makes no recommendations for listing, as that is a separate evaluation to be conducted by the NMFS.
Lifescience Database Archive (English)
Full Text Available List Contact us Gclust Server Amino acid sequences of predicted proteins and their annotation for 95 organis...m species. Data detail Data name Amino acid sequences of predicted proteins and their annotation for 95 orga...nism species. DOI 10.18908/lsdba.nbdc00464-001 Description of data contents Amino acid sequences of predicted proteins...Database Description Download License Update History of This Database Site Policy | Contact Us Amino acid sequences of predicted prot...eins and their annotation for 95 organism species. - Gclust Server | LSDB Archive ...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hyldgaard, Benita; Sorrell, Brian Keith; Brix, Hans
2014-01-01
1. The importance of temperature responses of photosynthesis and respiration in determining species distributions was compared in two closely related freshwater macrophytes, Ceratophyllum demersum and C. submersum. The two species differed significantly in response to temperature in the short...... and distributional patterns corresponded well with the long-term (weeks) results obtained, but with some important deviations. The long-term responses of the two species to low temperature (12 °C) were more similar than expected. In contrast, high temperature (35 °C), which stimulated photosynthesis in C. submersum...... in the short term, inhibited photosynthesis in the long term and resulted in lower growth rates of C. submersum, both compared to C. demersum and to growth rates at intermediate temperatures (18 and 25 °C). 3. The long-term acclimation strategy differed between the two species. Ceratophyllum demersum achieved...
Deterministic Predictions of Vessel Responses Based on Past Measurements
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Ulrik Dam; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher
2017-01-01
The paper deals with a prediction procedure from which global wave-induced responses can be deterministically predicted a short time, 10-50 s, ahead of current time. The procedure relies on the autocorrelation function and takes into account prior measurements only; i.e. knowledge about wave...
A comparison of auditory brainstem responses across diving bird species
Crowell, Sara E.; Berlin, Alicia; Carr, Catherine E.; Olsen, Glenn H.; Therrien, Ronald E.; Yannuzzi, Sally E.; Ketten, Darlene R.
2015-01-01
There is little biological data available for diving birds because many live in hard-to-study, remote habitats. Only one species of diving bird, the black-footed penguin (Spheniscus demersus), has been studied in respect to auditory capabilities (Wever et al., Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 63:676–680, 1969). We, therefore, measured in-air auditory threshold in ten species of diving birds, using the auditory brainstem response (ABR). The average audiogram obtained for each species followed the U-shape typical of birds and many other animals. All species tested shared a common region of the greatest sensitivity, from 1000 to 3000 Hz, although audiograms differed significantly across species. Thresholds of all duck species tested were more similar to each other than to the two non-duck species tested. The red-throated loon (Gavia stellata) and northern gannet (Morus bassanus) exhibited the highest thresholds while the lowest thresholds belonged to the duck species, specifically the lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) and ruddy duck (Oxyura jamaicensis). Vocalization parameters were also measured for each species, and showed that with the exception of the common eider (Somateria mollisima), the peak frequency, i.e., frequency at the greatest intensity, of all species' vocalizations measured here fell between 1000 and 3000 Hz, matching the bandwidth of the most sensitive hearing range.
Yan, Weiming; Zhong, Yangquanwei; Shangguan, Zhouping
2017-09-01
Stomata control the cycling of water and carbon between plants and the atmosphere; however, no consistent conclusions have been drawn regarding the response of stomatal frequency to climate change. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of 1854 globally obtained data series to determine the response of stomatal frequency to climate change, which including four plant life forms (over 900 species), at altitudes ranging from 0 to 4500 m and over a time span of more than one hundred thousand years. Stomatal frequency decreased with increasing CO 2 concentration and increased with elevated temperature and drought stress; it was also dependent on the species and experimental conditions. The response of stomatal frequency to climate change showed a trade-off between stomatal control strategies and environmental factors, such as the CO 2 concentration, temperature, and soil water availability. Moreover, threshold effects of elevated CO 2 and temperature on stomatal frequency were detected, indicating that the response of stomatal density to increasing CO 2 concentration will decrease over the next few years. The results also suggested that the stomatal index may be more reliable than stomatal density for determination of the historic CO 2 concentration. Our findings indicate that the contrasting responses of stomata to climate change bring a considerable challenge in predicting future water and carbon cycles. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Frei, Esther R; Ghazoul, Jaboury; Pluess, Andrea R
2014-01-01
Local persistence of plant species in the face of climate change is largely mediated by genetic adaptation and phenotypic plasticity. In species with a wide altitudinal range, population responses to global warming are likely to differ at contrasting elevations. In controlled climate chambers, we investigated the responses of low and high elevation populations (1200 and 1800 m a.s.l.) of three nutrient-poor grassland species, Trifolium montanum, Ranunculus bulbosus, and Briza media, to ambient and elevated temperature. We measured growth-related, reproductive and phenological traits, evaluated differences in trait plasticity and examined whether trait values or plasticities were positively related to approximate fitness and thus under selection. Elevated temperature induced plastic responses in several growth-related traits of all three species. Although flowering phenology was advanced in T. montanum and R. bulbosus, number of flowers and reproductive allocation were not increased under elevated temperature. Plasticity differed between low and high elevation populations only in leaf traits of T. montanum and B. media. Some growth-related and phenological traits were under selection. Moreover, plasticities were not correlated with approximate fitness indicating selectively neutral plastic responses to elevated temperature. The observed plasticity in growth-related and phenological traits, albeit variable among species, suggests that plasticity is an important mechanism in mediating plant responses to elevated temperature. However, the capacity of species to respond to climate change through phenotypic plasticity is limited suggesting that the species additionally need evolutionary adaptation to adjust to climate change. The observed selection on several growth-related and phenological traits indicates that the study species have the potential for future evolution in the context of a warming climate.
Li, M-H; Cherubini, P; Dobbertin, M; Arend, M; Xiao, W-F; Rigling, A
2013-01-01
Global warming and shortage of water have been evidenced in the recent past and are predicted for the future. Climate change will inevitably have considerable impact on plant physiology, growth, productivity and forest ecosystem functions. The present study determined the effects of simulated daytime air warming (+1 to 1.5 °C during the growing season), drought (-40% and -57% of mean precipitation of 728 mm during the 2007 and 2008 growing season, respectively) and their combination, on leaf nitrogen (N) and non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) of two Quercus species (Q. robur and Q. petraea) and provenances (two provenances for each species) grown in two soil types in Switzerland across two treatment years, to test the hypothesis that leaf N and NSC in the more water-sensitive species (Q. robur) and provenances (originating from water-rich locations) will more strongly respond to global warming and water deficit, compared to those in the more drought-tolerant species (Q. petraea) or provenances. No species- and provenance-specific responses in leaf N and NSC to the climate treatment were found, indicating that the results failed to support our hypothesis. The between-species variation of leaf N and NSC concentrations mainly reflected differences in biology of the two species, and the between-provenance variation of N and NSC concentrations apparently mirrored the climate of their origins. Hence, we conclude that (i) the two Quercus species studied are somewhat insensitive, due to their distribution covering a wide geographical and climate range, to moderate climate change within Switzerland, and (ii) a moderate global warming of B1 scenario (IPCC 2007) will not, or at least less, negatively affect the N and carbon physiology in Q. robur and Q. petraea. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.
A HIERARCHICAL SET OF MODELS FOR SPECIES RESPONSE ANALYSIS
HUISMAN, J; OLFF, H; FRESCO, LFM
Variation in the abundance of species in space and/or time can be caused by a wide range of underlying processes. Before such causes can be analysed we need simple mathematical models which can describe the observed response patterns. For this purpose a hierarchical set of models is presented. These
A hierarchical set of models for species response analysis
Huisman, J.; Olff, H.; Fresco, L.F.M.
1993-01-01
Variation in the abundance of species in space and/or time can be caused by a wide range of underlying processes. Before such causes can be analysed we need simple mathematical models which can describe the observed response patterns. For this purpose a hierarchical set of models is presented. These
Rudi, Gabrielle; Bailly, Jean-Stéphane; Vinatier, Fabrice
2018-01-01
To optimize ecosystem services provided by agricultural drainage networks (ditches) in headwater catchments, we need to manage the spatial distribution of plant species living in these networks. Geomorphological variables have been shown to be important predictors of plant distribution in other ecosystems because they control the water regime, the sediment deposition rates and the sun exposure in the ditches. Whether such variables may be used to predict plant distribution in agricultural drainage networks is unknown. We collected presence and absence data for 10 herbaceous plant species in a subset of a network of drainage ditches (35 km long) within a Mediterranean agricultural catchment. We simulated their spatial distribution with GLM and Maxent model using geomorphological variables and distance to natural lands and roads. Models were validated using k-fold cross-validation. We then compared the mean Area Under the Curve (AUC) values obtained for each model and other metrics issued from the confusion matrices between observed and predicted variables. Based on the results of all metrics, the models were efficient at predicting the distribution of seven species out of ten, confirming the relevance of geomorphological variables and distance to natural lands and roads to explain the occurrence of plant species in this Mediterranean catchment. In particular, the importance of the landscape geomorphological variables, ie the importance of the geomorphological features encompassing a broad environment around the ditch, has been highlighted. This suggests that agro-ecological measures for managing ecosystem services provided by ditch plants should focus on the control of the hydrological and sedimentological connectivity at the catchment scale. For example, the density of the ditch network could be modified or the spatial distribution of vegetative filter strips used for sediment trapping could be optimized. In addition, the vegetative filter strips could constitute
MTR-18 Predictive Biomarkers Of Bevacizumab Response In Recurrent Glioblastoma Patients
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Urup, Thomas; Michaelsen, Signe Regner; Olsen, Lars Rønn
2015-01-01
Bevacizumab (BEV) plus chemotherapy has shown activity in recurrent glioblastoma (GBM). However, the prognosis varies and only one third of patients have a durable clinical response to BEV combination therapy. Recent findings from a randomized phase-3 study (AVAglio) indicate that patients...... with the proneural GBM subtype have a survival benefit when treated with BEV in combination with standard treatment. However, no validated biomarkers able to predict BEV response have been identified and the biology reflecting a clinical BEV response is poorly understood. The primary objective of this study...... was to evaluate the predictive and prognostic value of GBM subtypes in recurrent GBM patients treated with BEV therapy. The secondary objective was to identify biomarkers able to predict response to BEV therapy in recurrent GBM patients. METHODS: A total of 90 recurrent GBM patients treated with BEV combination...
Genetic analysis of Myanmar Vigna species in responses to salt ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Genetic analysis of Myanmar Vigna species in responses to salt stress at the ... of reduction was highly dependent on different genotypes and salinity levels. ... the mechanism of salt tolerance and for the provision of genetic resources for ...
Predicting the response of olfactory sensory neurons to odor mixtures from single odor response
Marasco, Addolorata; De Paris, Alessandro; Migliore, Michele
2016-01-01
The response of olfactory receptor neurons to odor mixtures is not well understood. Here, using experimental constraints, we investigate the mathematical structure of the odor response space and its consequences. The analysis suggests that the odor response space is 3-dimensional, and predicts that the dose-response curve of an odor receptor can be obtained, in most cases, from three primary components with specific properties. This opens the way to an objective procedure to obtain specific o...
Mothers' labeling responses to infants' gestures predict vocabulary outcomes.
Olson, Janet; Masur, Elise Frank
2015-11-01
Twenty-nine infants aged 1;1 and their mothers were videotaped while interacting with toys for 18 minutes. Six experimental stimuli were presented to elicit infant communicative bids in two communicative intent contexts - proto-declarative and proto-imperative. Mothers' verbal responses to infants' gestural and non-gestural communicative bids were coded for object and action labels. Relations between maternal labeling responses and infants' vocabularies at 1;1 and 1;5 were examined. Mothers' labeling responses to infants' gestural communicative bids were concurrently and predictively related to infants' vocabularies, whereas responses to non-gestural communicative bids were not. Mothers' object labeling following gestures in the proto-declarative context mediated the association from infants' gesturing in the proto-declarative context to concurrent noun lexicons and was the strongest predictor of subsequent noun lexicons. Mothers' action labeling after infants' gestural bids in the proto-imperative context predicted infants' acquisition of action words at 1;5. Findings show that mothers' responsive labeling explain specific relations between infants' gestures and their vocabulary development.
Urbanization impacts on mammals across urban-forest edges and a predictive model of edge effects.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nélida R Villaseñor
Full Text Available With accelerating rates of urbanization worldwide, a better understanding of ecological processes at the wildland-urban interface is critical to conserve biodiversity. We explored the effects of high and low-density housing developments on forest-dwelling mammals. Based on habitat characteristics, we expected a gradual decline in species abundance across forest-urban edges and an increased decline rate in higher contrast edges. We surveyed arboreal mammals in sites of high and low housing density along 600 m transects that spanned urban areas and areas turn on adjacent native forest. We also surveyed forest controls to test whether edge effects extended beyond our edge transects. We fitted models describing richness, total abundance and individual species abundance. Low-density housing developments provided suitable habitat for most arboreal mammals. In contrast, high-density housing developments had lower species richness, total abundance and individual species abundance, but supported the highest abundances of an urban adapter (Trichosurus vulpecula. We did not find the predicted gradual decline in species abundance. Of four species analysed, three exhibited no response to the proximity of urban boundaries, but spilled over into adjacent urban habitat to differing extents. One species (Petaurus australis had an extended negative response to urban boundaries, suggesting that urban development has impacts beyond 300 m into adjacent forest. Our empirical work demonstrates that high-density housing developments have negative effects on both community and species level responses, except for one urban adapter. We developed a new predictive model of edge effects based on our results and the literature. To predict animal responses across edges, our framework integrates for first time: (1 habitat quality/preference, (2 species response with the proximity to the adjacent habitat, and (3 spillover extent/sensitivity to adjacent habitat boundaries. This
Velasquez, Eleanor; Bryan, Scott E; Ekins, Merrick; Cook, Alex G; Hurrey, Lucy; Firn, Jennifer
2018-05-01
The theory of island biogeography predicts that area and age explain species richness patterns (or alpha diversity) in insular habitats. Using a unique natural phenomenon, pumice rafting, we measured the influence of area, age, and oceanic climate on patterns of species richness. Pumice rafts are formed simultaneously when submarine volcanoes erupt, the pumice clasts breakup irregularly, forming irregularly shaped pumice stones which while floating through the ocean are colonized by marine biota. We analyze two eruption events and more than 5,000 pumice clasts collected from 29 sites and three climatic zones. Overall, the older and larger pumice clasts held more species. Pumice clasts arriving in tropical and subtropical climates showed this same trend, where in temperate locations species richness (alpha diversity) increased with area but decreased with age. Beta diversity analysis of the communities forming on pumice clasts that arrived in different climatic zones showed that tropical and subtropical clasts transported similar communities, while species composition on temperate clasts differed significantly from both tropical and subtropical arrivals. Using these thousands of insular habitats, we find strong evidence that area and age but also climatic conditions predict the fundamental dynamics of species richness colonizing pumice clasts.
Prediction of permeability changes in an excavation response zone
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kinoshita, Naoto; Ishii, Takashi; Kuroda, Hidetaka; Tada, Hiroyuki
1992-01-01
In geologic disposal of radioactive wastes, stress changes due to cavern excavation may expand the existing fractures and create possible bypasses for groundwater. This paper proposes a simple method for predicting permeability changes in the excavation response zones. Numerical analyses using this method predict that the response zones created by cavern excavation would differ greatly in thickness and permeability depending on the depth of the cavern site and the initial in-situ stress, that when the cavern site is deeper, response zones would expand more and permeability would increases more, and that if the ratio of horizontal to vertical in-situ stress is small, extensive permeable zones at the crown and the bottom would occur, whereas if the ratio is large, extensive permeable zones would occur in the side walls. (orig.)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chunrong Mi
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane (Grus monacha, n = 33, White-naped Crane (Grus vipio, n = 40, and Black-necked Crane (Grus nigricollis, n = 75 in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model, Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models. In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC and true skill statistic (TSS were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid
Mi, Chunrong; Huettmann, Falk; Guo, Yumin; Han, Xuesong; Wen, Lijia
2017-01-01
Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane ( Grus monacha , n = 33), White-naped Crane ( Grus vipio , n = 40), and Black-necked Crane ( Grus nigricollis , n = 75) in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model), Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree) and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models). In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS)) were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial) ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid
Zhang, Keda; Abraham, Michael H; Liu, Xiangli
2017-04-15
Experimental values of permeability coefficients, as log K p , of chemical compounds across human skin were collected by carefully screening the literature, and adjusted to 37°C for the effect of temperature. The values of log K p for partially ionized acids and bases were separated into those for their neutral and ionic species, forming a total data set of 247 compounds and species (including 35 ionic species). The obtained log K p values have been regressed against Abraham solute descriptors to yield a correlation equation with R 2 =0.866 and SD=0.432 log units. The equation can provide valid predictions for log K p of neutral molecules, ions and ionic species, with predictive R 2 =0.858 and predictive SD=0.445 log units calculated by the leave-one-out statistics. The predicted log K p values for Na + and Et 4 N + are in good agreement with the observed values. We calculated the values of log K p of ketoprofen as a function of the pH of the donor solution, and found that log K p markedly varies only when ketoprofen is largely ionized. This explains why models that neglect ionization of permeants still yield reasonable statistical results. The effect of skin thickness on log K p was investigated by inclusion of two indicator variables, one for intermediate thickness skin and one for full thickness skin, into the above equation. The newly obtained equations were found to be statistically very close to the above equation. Therefore, the thickness of human skin used makes little difference to the experimental values of log K p . Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Lichtenstein, James L L; Wright, Colin M; McEwen, Brendan; Pinter-Wollman, Noa; Pruitt, Jonathan N
2017-10-01
Individual animals differ consistently in their behaviour, thus impacting a wide variety of ecological outcomes. Recent advances in animal personality research have established the ecological importance of the multidimensional behavioural volume occupied by individuals and by multispecies communities. Here, we examine the degree to which the multidimensional behavioural volume of a group predicts the outcome of both intra- and interspecific interactions. In particular, we test the hypothesis that a population of conspecifics will experience low intraspecific competition when the population occupies a large volume in behavioural space. We further hypothesize that populations of interacting species will exhibit greater interspecific competition when one or both species occupy large volumes in behavioural space. We evaluate these hypotheses by studying groups of katydids ( Scudderia nymphs) and froghoppers ( Philaenus spumarius ), which compete for food and space on their shared host plant, Solidago canadensis . We found that individuals in single-species groups of katydids positioned themselves closer to one another, suggesting reduced competition, when groups occupied a large behavioural volume. When both species were placed together, we found that the survival of froghoppers was greatest when both froghoppers and katydids occupied a small volume in behavioural space, particularly at high froghopper densities. These results suggest that groups that occupy large behavioural volumes can have low intraspecific competition but high interspecific competition. Thus, behavioural hypervolumes appear to have ecological consequences at both the level of the population and the community and may help to predict the intensity of competition both within and across species.
Grassland invader responses to realistic changes in native species richness.
Rinella, Matthew J; Pokorny, Monica L; Rekaya, Romdhane
2007-09-01
The importance of species richness for repelling exotic plant invasions varies from ecosystem to ecosystem. Thus, in order to prioritize conservation objectives, it is critical to identify those ecosystems where decreasing richness will most greatly magnify invasion risks. Our goal was to determine if invasion risks greatly increase in response to common reductions in grassland species richness. We imposed treatments that mimic management-induced reductions in grassland species richness (i.e., removal of shallow- and/or deep-rooted forbs and/or grasses and/or cryptogam layers). Then we introduced and monitored the performance of a notorious invasive species (i.e., Centaurea maculosa). We found that, on a per-gram-of-biomass basis, each resident plant group similarly suppressed invader growth. Hence, with respect to preventing C. maculosa invasions, maintaining overall productivity is probably more important than maintaining the productivity of particular plant groups or species. But at the sites we studied, all plant groups may be needed to maintain overall productivity because removing forbs decreased overall productivity in two of three years. Alternatively, removing forbs increased productivity in another year, and this led us to posit that removing forbs may inflate the temporal productivity variance as opposed to greatly affecting time-averaged productivity. In either case, overall productivity responses to single plant group removals were inconsistent and fairly modest, and only when all plant groups were removed did C. maculosa growth increase substantially over a no-removal treatment. As such, it seems that intense disturbances (e.g., prolonged drought, overgrazing) that deplete multiple plant groups may often be a prerequisite for C. maculosa invasion.
Responses of Eucalyptus species to fertilizer applications made at ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Early research trials in South Africa have shown that Eucalyptus species generally respond positively to the addition of nutrients at planting. However, as most of these research trials were located in KwaZulu-Natal, it was important to investigate the nature of the response in other afforested regions of the country where this ...
Reid, Noah M; Whitehead, Andrew
2016-09-01
Marine pollution is ubiquitous, and is one of the key factors influencing contemporary marine biodiversity worldwide. To protect marine biodiversity, how do we surveil, document and predict the short- and long-term impacts of pollutants on at-risk species? Modern genomics tools offer high-throughput, information-rich and increasingly cost-effective approaches for characterizing biological responses to environmental stress, and are important tools within an increasing sophisticated kit for surveiling and assessing impacts of pollutants on marine species. Through the lens of recent research in marine killifish, we illustrate how genomics tools may be useful for screening chemicals and pollutants for biological activity and to reveal specific mechanisms of action. The high dimensionality of transcriptomic responses enables their usage as highly specific fingerprints of exposure, and these fingerprints can be used to diagnose environmental problems. We also emphasize that molecular pathways recruited to respond at physiological timescales are the same pathways that may be targets for natural selection during chronic exposure to pollutants. Gene complement and sequence variation in those pathways can be related to variation in sensitivity to environmental pollutants within and among species. Furthermore, allelic variation associated with evolved tolerance in those pathways could be tracked to estimate the pace of environmental health decline and recovery. We finish by integrating these paradigms into a vision of how genomics approaches could anchor a modernized framework for advancing the predictive capacity of environmental and ecotoxicological science. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds.
Barbraud, Christophe; Rivalan, Philippe; Inchausti, Pablo; Nevoux, Marie; Rolland, Virginie; Weimerskirch, Henri
2011-01-01
1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics
Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L L; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R P; Alhusseini, Tamera I; Bedford, Felicity E; Bennett, Dominic J; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J; Chng, Charlotte W T; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L P; Day, Julie; Echeverría-Londoño, Susy; Emerson, Susan R; Gao, Di; Garon, Morgan; Harrison, Michelle L K; Ingram, Daniel J; Jung, Martin; Kemp, Victoria; Kirkpatrick, Lucinda; Martin, Callum D; Pan, Yuan; Pask-Hale, Gwilym D; Pynegar, Edwin L; Robinson, Alexandra N; Sanchez-Ortiz, Katia; Senior, Rebecca A; Simmons, Benno I; White, Hannah J; Zhang, Hanbin; Aben, Job; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Adum, Gilbert B; Aguilar-Barquero, Virginia; Aizen, Marcelo A; Albertos, Belén; Alcala, E L; Del Mar Alguacil, Maria; Alignier, Audrey; Ancrenaz, Marc; Andersen, Alan N; Arbeláez-Cortés, Enrique; Armbrecht, Inge; Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Aumann, Tom; Axmacher, Jan C; Azhar, Badrul; Azpiroz, Adrián B; Baeten, Lander; Bakayoko, Adama; Báldi, András; Banks, John E; Baral, Sharad K; Barlow, Jos; Barratt, Barbara I P; Barrico, Lurdes; Bartolommei, Paola; Barton, Diane M; Basset, Yves; Batáry, Péter; Bates, Adam J; Baur, Bruno; Bayne, Erin M; Beja, Pedro; Benedick, Suzan; Berg, Åke; Bernard, Henry; Berry, Nicholas J; Bhatt, Dinesh; Bicknell, Jake E; Bihn, Jochen H; Blake, Robin J; Bobo, Kadiri S; Bóçon, Roberto; Boekhout, Teun; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Bonham, Kevin J; Borges, Paulo A V; Borges, Sérgio H; Boutin, Céline; Bouyer, Jérémy; Bragagnolo, Cibele; Brandt, Jodi S; Brearley, Francis Q; Brito, Isabel; Bros, Vicenç; Brunet, Jörg; Buczkowski, Grzegorz; Buddle, Christopher M; Bugter, Rob; Buscardo, Erika; Buse, Jörn; Cabra-García, Jimmy; Cáceres, Nilton C; Cagle, Nicolette L; Calviño-Cancela, María; Cameron, Sydney A; Cancello, Eliana M; Caparrós, Rut; Cardoso, Pedro; Carpenter, Dan; Carrijo, Tiago F; Carvalho, Anelena L; Cassano, Camila R; Castro, Helena; Castro-Luna, Alejandro A; Rolando, Cerda B; Cerezo, Alexis; Chapman, Kim Alan; Chauvat, Matthieu; Christensen, Morten; Clarke, Francis M; Cleary, Daniel F R; Colombo, Giorgio; Connop, Stuart P; Craig, Michael D; Cruz-López, Leopoldo; Cunningham, Saul A; D'Aniello, Biagio; D'Cruze, Neil; da Silva, Pedro Giovâni; Dallimer, Martin; Danquah, Emmanuel; Darvill, Ben; Dauber, Jens; Davis, Adrian L V; Dawson, Jeff; de Sassi, Claudio; de Thoisy, Benoit; Deheuvels, Olivier; Dejean, Alain; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Diekötter, Tim; Dolia, Jignasu V; Domínguez, Erwin; Dominguez-Haydar, Yamileth; Dorn, Silvia; Draper, Isabel; Dreber, Niels; Dumont, Bertrand; Dures, Simon G; Dynesius, Mats; Edenius, Lars; Eggleton, Paul; Eigenbrod, Felix; Elek, Zoltán; Entling, Martin H; Esler, Karen J; de Lima, Ricardo F; Faruk, Aisyah; Farwig, Nina; Fayle, Tom M; Felicioli, Antonio; Felton, Annika M; Fensham, Roderick J; Fernandez, Ignacio C; Ferreira, Catarina C; Ficetola, Gentile F; Fiera, Cristina; Filgueiras, Bruno K C; Fırıncıoğlu, Hüseyin K; Flaspohler, David; Floren, Andreas; Fonte, Steven J; Fournier, Anne; Fowler, Robert E; Franzén, Markus; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Fredriksson, Gabriella M; Freire, Geraldo B; Frizzo, Tiago L M; Fukuda, Daisuke; Furlani, Dario; Gaigher, René; Ganzhorn, Jörg U; García, Karla P; Garcia-R, Juan C; Garden, Jenni G; Garilleti, Ricardo; Ge, Bao-Ming; Gendreau-Berthiaume, Benoit; Gerard, Philippa J; Gheler-Costa, Carla; Gilbert, Benjamin; Giordani, Paolo; Giordano, Simonetta; Golodets, Carly; Gomes, Laurens G L; Gould, Rachelle K; Goulson, Dave; Gove, Aaron D; Granjon, Laurent; Grass, Ingo; Gray, Claudia L; Grogan, James; Gu, Weibin; Guardiola, Moisès; Gunawardene, Nihara R; Gutierrez, Alvaro G; Gutiérrez-Lamus, Doris L; Haarmeyer, Daniela H; Hanley, Mick E; Hanson, Thor; Hashim, Nor R; Hassan, Shombe N; Hatfield, Richard G; Hawes, Joseph E; Hayward, Matt W; Hébert, Christian; Helden, Alvin J; Henden, John-André; Henschel, Philipp; Hernández, Lionel; Herrera, James P; Herrmann, Farina; Herzog, Felix; Higuera-Diaz, Diego; Hilje, Branko; Höfer, Hubert; Hoffmann, Anke; Horgan, Finbarr G; Hornung, Elisabeth; Horváth, Roland; Hylander, Kristoffer; Isaacs-Cubides, Paola; Ishida, Hiroaki; Ishitani, Masahiro; Jacobs, Carmen T; Jaramillo, Víctor J; Jauker, Birgit; Hernández, F Jiménez; Johnson, McKenzie F; Jolli, Virat; Jonsell, Mats; Juliani, S Nur; Jung, Thomas S; Kapoor, Vena; Kappes, Heike; Kati, Vassiliki; Katovai, Eric; Kellner, Klaus; Kessler, Michael; Kirby, Kathryn R; Kittle, Andrew M; Knight, Mairi E; Knop, Eva; Kohler, Florian; Koivula, Matti; Kolb, Annette; Kone, Mouhamadou; Kőrösi, Ádám; Krauss, Jochen; Kumar, Ajith; Kumar, Raman; Kurz, David J; Kutt, Alex S; Lachat, Thibault; Lantschner, Victoria; Lara, Francisco; Lasky, Jesse R; Latta, Steven C; Laurance, William F; Lavelle, Patrick; Le Féon, Violette; LeBuhn, Gretchen; Légaré, Jean-Philippe; Lehouck, Valérie; Lencinas, María V; Lentini, Pia E; Letcher, Susan G; Li, Qi; Litchwark, Simon A; Littlewood, Nick A; Liu, Yunhui; Lo-Man-Hung, Nancy; López-Quintero, Carlos A; Louhaichi, Mounir; Lövei, Gabor L; Lucas-Borja, Manuel Esteban; Luja, Victor H; Luskin, Matthew S; MacSwiney G, M Cristina; Maeto, Kaoru; Magura, Tibor; Mallari, Neil Aldrin; Malone, Louise A; Malonza, Patrick K; Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba; Mandujano, Salvador; Måren, Inger E; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Marsh, Charles J; Marshall, E J P; Martínez, Eliana; Martínez Pastur, Guillermo; Moreno Mateos, David; Mayfield, Margaret M; Mazimpaka, Vicente; McCarthy, Jennifer L; McCarthy, Kyle P; McFrederick, Quinn S; McNamara, Sean; Medina, Nagore G; Medina, Rafael; Mena, Jose L; Mico, Estefania; Mikusinski, Grzegorz; Milder, Jeffrey C; Miller, James R; Miranda-Esquivel, Daniel R; Moir, Melinda L; Morales, Carolina L; Muchane, Mary N; Muchane, Muchai; Mudri-Stojnic, Sonja; Munira, A Nur; Muoñz-Alonso, Antonio; Munyekenye, B F; Naidoo, Robin; Naithani, A; Nakagawa, Michiko; Nakamura, Akihiro; Nakashima, Yoshihiro; Naoe, Shoji; Nates-Parra, Guiomar; Navarrete Gutierrez, Dario A; Navarro-Iriarte, Luis; Ndang'ang'a, Paul K; Neuschulz, Eike L; Ngai, Jacqueline T; Nicolas, Violaine; Nilsson, Sven G; Noreika, Norbertas; Norfolk, Olivia; Noriega, Jorge Ari; Norton, David A; Nöske, Nicole M; Nowakowski, A Justin; Numa, Catherine; O'Dea, Niall; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Oduro, William; Oertli, Sabine; Ofori-Boateng, Caleb; Oke, Christopher Omamoke; Oostra, Vicencio; Osgathorpe, Lynne M; Otavo, Samuel Eduardo; Page, Navendu V; Paritsis, Juan; Parra-H, Alejandro; Parry, Luke; Pe'er, Guy; Pearman, Peter B; Pelegrin, Nicolás; Pélissier, Raphaël; Peres, Carlos A; Peri, Pablo L; Persson, Anna S; Petanidou, Theodora; Peters, Marcell K; Pethiyagoda, Rohan S; Phalan, Ben; Philips, T Keith; Pillsbury, Finn C; Pincheira-Ulbrich, Jimmy; Pineda, Eduardo; Pino, Joan; Pizarro-Araya, Jaime; Plumptre, A J; Poggio, Santiago L; Politi, Natalia; Pons, Pere; Poveda, Katja; Power, Eileen F; Presley, Steven J; Proença, Vânia; Quaranta, Marino; Quintero, Carolina; Rader, Romina; Ramesh, B R; Ramirez-Pinilla, Martha P; Ranganathan, Jai; Rasmussen, Claus; Redpath-Downing, Nicola A; Reid, J Leighton; Reis, Yana T; Rey Benayas, José M; Rey-Velasco, Juan Carlos; Reynolds, Chevonne; Ribeiro, Danilo Bandini; Richards, Miriam H; Richardson, Barbara A; Richardson, Michael J; Ríos, Rodrigo Macip; Robinson, Richard; Robles, Carolina A; Römbke, Jörg; Romero-Duque, Luz Piedad; Rös, Matthias; Rosselli, Loreta; Rossiter, Stephen J; Roth, Dana S; Roulston, T'ai H; Rousseau, Laurent; Rubio, André V; Ruel, Jean-Claude; Sadler, Jonathan P; Sáfián, Szabolcs; Saldaña-Vázquez, Romeo A; Sam, Katerina; Samnegård, Ulrika; Santana, Joana; Santos, Xavier; Savage, Jade; Schellhorn, Nancy A; Schilthuizen, Menno; Schmiedel, Ute; Schmitt, Christine B; Schon, Nicole L; Schüepp, Christof; Schumann, Katharina; Schweiger, Oliver; Scott, Dawn M; Scott, Kenneth A; Sedlock, Jodi L; Seefeldt, Steven S; Shahabuddin, Ghazala; Shannon, Graeme; Sheil, Douglas; Sheldon, Frederick H; Shochat, Eyal; Siebert, Stefan J; Silva, Fernando A B; Simonetti, Javier A; Slade, Eleanor M; Smith, Jo; Smith-Pardo, Allan H; Sodhi, Navjot S; Somarriba, Eduardo J; Sosa, Ramón A; Soto Quiroga, Grimaldo; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues; Starzomski, Brian M; Stefanescu, Constanti; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stouffer, Philip C; Stout, Jane C; Strauch, Ayron M; Struebig, Matthew J; Su, Zhimin; Suarez-Rubio, Marcela; Sugiura, Shinji; Summerville, Keith S; Sung, Yik-Hei; Sutrisno, Hari; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Teder, Tiit; Threlfall, Caragh G; Tiitsaar, Anu; Todd, Jacqui H; Tonietto, Rebecca K; Torre, Ignasi; Tóthmérész, Béla; Tscharntke, Teja; Turner, Edgar C; Tylianakis, Jason M; Uehara-Prado, Marcio; Urbina-Cardona, Nicolas; Vallan, Denis; Vanbergen, Adam J; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Vassilev, Kiril; Verboven, Hans A F; Verdasca, Maria João; Verdú, José R; Vergara, Carlos H; Vergara, Pablo M; Verhulst, Jort; Virgilio, Massimiliano; Vu, Lien Van; Waite, Edward M; Walker, Tony R; Wang, Hua-Feng; Wang, Yanping; Watling, James I; Weller, Britta; Wells, Konstans; Westphal, Catrin; Wiafe, Edward D; Williams, Christopher D; Willig, Michael R; Woinarski, John C Z; Wolf, Jan H D; Wolters, Volkmar; Woodcock, Ben A; Wu, Jihua; Wunderle, Joseph M; Yamaura, Yuichi; Yoshikura, Satoko; Yu, Douglas W; Zaitsev, Andrey S; Zeidler, Juliane; Zou, Fasheng; Collen, Ben; Ewers, Rob M; Mace, Georgina M; Purves, Drew W; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Purvis, Andy
2017-01-01
The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
Outcome Prediction in Mathematical Models of Immune Response to Infection.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Manuel Mai
Full Text Available Clinicians need to predict patient outcomes with high accuracy as early as possible after disease inception. In this manuscript, we show that patient-to-patient variability sets a fundamental limit on outcome prediction accuracy for a general class of mathematical models for the immune response to infection. However, accuracy can be increased at the expense of delayed prognosis. We investigate several systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs that model the host immune response to a pathogen load. Advantages of systems of ODEs for investigating the immune response to infection include the ability to collect data on large numbers of 'virtual patients', each with a given set of model parameters, and obtain many time points during the course of the infection. We implement patient-to-patient variability v in the ODE models by randomly selecting the model parameters from distributions with coefficients of variation v that are centered on physiological values. We use logistic regression with one-versus-all classification to predict the discrete steady-state outcomes of the system. We find that the prediction algorithm achieves near 100% accuracy for v = 0, and the accuracy decreases with increasing v for all ODE models studied. The fact that multiple steady-state outcomes can be obtained for a given initial condition, i.e. the basins of attraction overlap in the space of initial conditions, limits the prediction accuracy for v > 0. Increasing the elapsed time of the variables used to train and test the classifier, increases the prediction accuracy, while adding explicit external noise to the ODE models decreases the prediction accuracy. Our results quantify the competition between early prognosis and high prediction accuracy that is frequently encountered by clinicians.
Using citizen science butterfly counts to predict species population trends.
Dennis, Emily B; Morgan, Byron J T; Brereton, Tom M; Roy, David B; Fox, Richard
2017-12-01
Citizen scientists are increasingly engaged in gathering biodiversity information, but trade-offs are often required between public engagement goals and reliable data collection. We compared population estimates for 18 widespread butterfly species derived from the first 4 years (2011-2014) of a short-duration citizen science project (Big Butterfly Count [BBC]) with those from long-running, standardized monitoring data collected by experienced observers (U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme [UKBMS]). BBC data are gathered during an annual 3-week period, whereas UKBMS sampling takes place over 6 months each year. An initial comparison with UKBMS data restricted to the 3-week BBC period revealed that species population changes were significantly correlated between the 2 sources. The short-duration sampling season rendered BBC counts susceptible to bias caused by interannual phenological variation in the timing of species' flight periods. The BBC counts were positively related to butterfly phenology and sampling effort. Annual estimates of species abundance and population trends predicted from models including BBC data and weather covariates as a proxy for phenology correlated significantly with those derived from UKBMS data. Overall, citizen science data obtained using a simple sampling protocol produced comparable estimates of butterfly species abundance to data collected through standardized monitoring methods. Although caution is urged in extrapolating from this U.K. study of a small number of common, conspicuous insects, we found that mass-participation citizen science can simultaneously contribute to public engagement and biodiversity monitoring. Mass-participation citizen science is not an adequate replacement for standardized biodiversity monitoring but may extend and complement it (e.g., through sampling different land-use types), as well as serving to reconnect an increasingly urban human population with nature. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published
RAMAN SPECTROSCOPIC STUDY ON PREDICTION OF TREATMENT RESPONSE IN CERVICAL CANCERS
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S. RUBINA
2013-04-01
Full Text Available Concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT is the choice of treatment for locally advanced cervical cancers; however, tumors exhibit diverse response to treatment. Early prediction of tumor response leads to individualizing treatment regimen. Response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (RECIST, the current modality of tumor response assessment, is often subjective and carried out at the first visit after treatment, which is about four months. Hence, there is a need for better predictive tool for radioresponse. Optical spectroscopic techniques, sensitive to molecular alteration, are being pursued as potential diagnostic tools. Present pilot study aims to explore the fiber-optic-based Raman spectroscopy approach in prediction of tumor response to CCRT, before taking up extensive in vivo studies. Ex vivo Raman spectra were acquired from biopsies collected from 11 normal (148 spectra, 16 tumor (201 spectra and 13 complete response (151 CR spectra, one partial response (8 PR spectra and one nonresponder (8 NR spectra subjects. Data was analyzed using principal component linear discriminant analysis (PC-LDA followed by leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV. Findings suggest that normal tissues can be efficiently classified from both pre- and post-treated tumor biopsies, while there is an overlap between pre- and post-CCRT tumor tissues. Spectra of CR, PR and NR tissues were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA and a tendency of classification was observed, corroborating previous studies. Thus, this study further supports the feasibility of Raman spectroscopy in prediction of tumor radioresponse and prospective noninvasive in vivo applications.
Miller, Jennifer R B; Ament, Judith M; Schmitz, Oswald J
2014-01-01
Ecologists have long searched for a framework of a priori species traits to help predict predator-prey interactions in food webs. Empirical evidence has shown that predator hunting mode and predator and prey habitat domain are useful traits for explaining predator-prey interactions. Yet, individual experiments have yet to replicate predator hunting mode, calling into question whether predator impacts can be attributed to hunting mode or merely species identity. We tested the effects of spider predators with sit-and-wait, sit-and-pursue and active hunting modes on grasshopper habitat domain, activity and mortality in a grassland system. We replicated hunting mode by testing two spider predator species of each hunting mode on the same grasshopper prey species. We observed grasshoppers with and without each spider species in behavioural cages and measured their mortality rates, movements and habitat domains. We likewise measured the movements and habitat domains of spiders to characterize hunting modes. We found that predator hunting mode explained grasshopper mortality and spider and grasshopper movement activity and habitat domain size. Sit-and-wait spider predators covered small distances over a narrow domain space and killed fewer grasshoppers than sit-and-pursue and active predators, which ranged farther distances across broader domains and killed more grasshoppers, respectively. Prey adjusted their activity levels and horizontal habitat domains in response to predator presence and hunting mode: sedentary sit-and-wait predators with narrow domains caused grasshoppers to reduce activity in the same-sized domain space; more mobile sit-and-pursue predators with broader domains caused prey to reduce their activity within a contracted horizontal (but not vertical) domain space; and highly mobile active spiders led grasshoppers to increase their activity across the same domain area. All predators impacted prey activity, and sit-and-pursue predators generated strong
The Pupillary Orienting Response Predicts Adaptive Behavioral Adjustment after Errors.
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Peter R Murphy
Full Text Available Reaction time (RT is commonly observed to slow down after an error. This post-error slowing (PES has been thought to arise from the strategic adoption of a more cautious response mode following deployment of cognitive control. Recently, an alternative account has suggested that PES results from interference due to an error-evoked orienting response. We investigated whether error-related orienting may in fact be a pre-cursor to adaptive post-error behavioral adjustment when the orienting response resolves before subsequent trial onset. We measured pupil dilation, a prototypical measure of autonomic orienting, during performance of a choice RT task with long inter-stimulus intervals, and found that the trial-by-trial magnitude of the error-evoked pupil response positively predicted both PES magnitude and the likelihood that the following response would be correct. These combined findings suggest that the magnitude of the error-related orienting response predicts an adaptive change of response strategy following errors, and thereby promote a reconciliation of the orienting and adaptive control accounts of PES.
Depression and anxiety predict sex-specific cortisol responses to interpersonal stress.
Powers, Sally I; Laurent, Heidemarie K; Gunlicks-Stoessel, Meredith; Balaban, Susan; Bent, Eileen
2016-07-01
Clinical theories posit interpersonal stress as an important factor in the emergence and exacerbation of depression and anxiety, while neuroendocrine research confirms the association of these syndromes with dysregulation in a major stress response system, the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. However, the proposal that depression and anxiety symptoms and diagnoses are associated with problematic HPA responses to close relationship stress has not been directly tested. We examined 196 heterosexual dating couples' depression and anxiety symptoms and diagnoses, assessed with questionnaires and diagnostic interviews, in relation to cortisol responses to discussion of an unresolved relationship conflict. Participants provided seven salivary samples in anticipation of and directly following the discussion, and throughout an hour-long recovery period, which were assayed for cortisol. Multilevel models of the HPA response predicted by symptoms or diagnoses showed that women's depressive symptoms predicted attenuated cortisol levels, with a flatter response curve. In contrast, men's depression symptoms and women's anxiety symptoms and diagnoses predicted higher cortisol levels. These findings highlight the importance of examining sex differences in responses to interpersonal stressors for understanding HPA dysregulation in internalizing psychopathology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Thermotolerance and responses to short duration heat stress in tropical and temperate species
Marias, D.; Meinzer, F. C.; Still, C. J.
2017-12-01
Temperature and heat waves are predicted to increase throughout the 21st century in both tropical and temperate regions. Tropical species are vulnerable to heat stress because of the higher radiation load and the narrower distribution of temperatures typically experienced compared to extratropical species. Germinant seedlings are also vulnerable to heat stress because they inhabit the boundary layer close to the soil surface where intense heating occurs. We quantified the effect of leaf age and heat stress duration (45 min, 90 min) on leaf thermotolerance and whole plant physiological responses to heat stress in Coffea arabica (COAR) saplings. We also evaluated leaf thermotolerance and whole plant responses to heat stress of seedlings in two populations each of Pinus ponderosa (PIPO) and Pseudotsuga menziesii (PSME) from contrasting climates. Thermotolerance of detached leaves/needles was evaluated using chlorophyll fluorescence (FV/FM, FO) and electrolyte leakage. After exposure of whole plants to a simulated heat wave in a growth chamber, we monitored FV/FM, photosynthesis (A), stomatal conductance (gs), non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs), and carbon isotope ratios (δ13C). In COAR, thermotolerance and rate of recovery increased with leaf age. Following heat treatment, reductions in A and gs led to reduced intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) and increased leaf temperatures. NSC results suggested that starch was converted to sugars for recovery from heat stress and phloem transport was inhibited. Plants failed to flower in both heat stress duration treatments. In PIPO and PSME, heat treatment induced significant reductions in FV/FM and A. NSC results suggested that starch was converted to glucose + fructose to aid recovery from heat-induced damage. Populations from drier sites had greater δ13C values than those from wetter sites, consistent with higher iWUE of populations from drier climates. Thermotolerance and heat stress responses appeared to be
PREDICTS: Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity in Changing Terrestrial Systems
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Georgina Mace
2012-12-01
Full Text Available The PREDICTS project (www.predicts.org.uk is a three-year NERC-funded project to model and predict at a global scale how local terrestrial diversity responds to human pressures such as land use, land cover, pollution, invasive species and infrastructure. PREDICTS is a collaboration between Imperial College London, the UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Microsoft Research Cambridge, UCL and the University of Sussex. In order to meet its aims, the project relies on extensive data describing the diversity and composition of biological communities at a local scale. Such data are collected on a vast scale through the committed efforts of field ecologists. If you have appropriate data that you would be willing to share with us, please get in touch (enquiries@predicts.org.uk. All contributions will be acknowledged appropriately and all data contributors will be included as co-authors on an open-access paper describing the database.
Structural prediction and analysis of VIH-related peptides from selected crustacean species.
Nagaraju, Ganji Purna Chandra; Kumari, Nunna Siva; Prasad, Ganji Lakshmi Vara; Rajitha, Balney; Meenu, Madan; Rao, Manam Sreenivasa; Naik, Bannoth Reddya
2009-08-17
The tentative elucidation of the 3D-structure of vitellogenesis inhibiting hormone (VIH) peptides is conversely underprivileged by difficulties in gaining enough peptide or protein, diffracting crystals, and numerous extra technical aspects. As a result, no structural information is available for VIH peptide sequences registered in the Genbank. In this situation, it is not surprising that predictive methods have achieved great interest. Here, in this study the molt-inhibiting hormone (MIH) of the kuruma prawn (Marsupenaeus japonicus) is used, to predict the structure of four VIHrelated peptides in the crustacean species. The high similarity of the 3D-structures and the calculated physiochemical characteristics of these peptides suggest a common fold for the entire family.
Reranking candidate gene models with cross-species comparison for improved gene prediction
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Pereira Fernando CN
2008-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Most gene finders score candidate gene models with state-based methods, typically HMMs, by combining local properties (coding potential, splice donor and acceptor patterns, etc. Competing models with similar state-based scores may be distinguishable with additional information. In particular, functional and comparative genomics datasets may help to select among competing models of comparable probability by exploiting features likely to be associated with the correct gene models, such as conserved exon/intron structure or protein sequence features. Results We have investigated the utility of a simple post-processing step for selecting among a set of alternative gene models, using global scoring rules to rerank competing models for more accurate prediction. For each gene locus, we first generate the K best candidate gene models using the gene finder Evigan, and then rerank these models using comparisons with putative orthologous genes from closely-related species. Candidate gene models with lower scores in the original gene finder may be selected if they exhibit strong similarity to probable orthologs in coding sequence, splice site location, or signal peptide occurrence. Experiments on Drosophila melanogaster demonstrate that reranking based on cross-species comparison outperforms the best gene models identified by Evigan alone, and also outperforms the comparative gene finders GeneWise and Augustus+. Conclusion Reranking gene models with cross-species comparison improves gene prediction accuracy. This straightforward method can be readily adapted to incorporate additional lines of evidence, as it requires only a ranked source of candidate gene models.
Nijland, Wiebe; Nielsen, Scott E.; Coops, Nicholas C.; Wulder, Michael A.; Stenhouse, Gordon B.
2014-01-01
Food and habitat resources are critical components of wildlife management and conservation efforts. The grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) has diverse diets and habitat requirements particularly for understory plant species, which are impacted by human developments and forest management activities. We use light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data to predict the occurrence of 14 understory plant species relevant to bear forage and compare our predictions with more conventional climate- and land cover-based models. We use boosted regression trees to model each of the 14 understory species across 4435 km2 using occurrence (presence-absence) data from 1941 field plots. Three sets of models were fitted: climate only, climate and basic land and forest covers from Landsat 30-m imagery, and a climate- and LiDAR-derived model describing both the terrain and forest canopy. Resulting model accuracies varied widely among species. Overall, 8 of 14 species models were improved by including the LiDAR-derived variables. For climate-only models, mean annual precipitation and frost-free periods were the most important variables. With inclusion of LiDAR-derived attributes, depth-to-water table, terrain-intercepted annual radiation, and elevation were most often selected. This suggests that fine-scale terrain conditions affect the distribution of the studied species more than canopy conditions.
Robinson, Jason L; Fordyce, James A
2017-01-01
Among the greatest challenges facing the conservation of plants and animal species in protected areas are threats from a rapidly changing climate. An altered climate creates both challenges and opportunities for improving the management of protected areas in networks. Increasingly, quantitative tools like species distribution modeling are used to assess the performance of protected areas and predict potential responses to changing climates for groups of species, within a predictive framework. At larger geographic domains and scales, protected area network units have spatial geoclimatic properties that can be described in the gap analysis typically used to measure or aggregate the geographic distributions of species (stacked species distribution models, or S-SDM). We extend the use of species distribution modeling techniques in order to model the climate envelope (or "footprint") of individual protected areas within a network of protected areas distributed across the 48 conterminous United States and managed by the US National Park System. In our approach we treat each protected area as the geographic range of a hypothetical endemic species, then use MaxEnt and 5 uncorrelated BioClim variables to model the geographic distribution of the climatic envelope associated with each protected area unit (modeling the geographic area of park units as the range of a species). We describe the individual and aggregated climate envelopes predicted by a large network of 163 protected areas and briefly illustrate how macroecological measures of geodiversity can be derived from our analysis of the landscape ecological context of protected areas. To estimate trajectories of change in the temporal distribution of climatic features within a protected area network, we projected the climate envelopes of protected areas in current conditions onto a dataset of predicted future climatic conditions. Our results suggest that the climate envelopes of some parks may be locally unique or have
Biotic interactions overrule plant responses to climate, depending on the species' biogeography.
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Astrid Welk
Full Text Available This study presents an experimental approach to assess the relative importance of climatic and biotic factors as determinants of species' geographical distributions. We asked to what extent responses of grassland plant species to biotic interactions vary with climate, and to what degree this variation depends on the species' biogeography. Using a gradient from oceanic to continental climate represented by nine common garden transplant sites in Germany, we experimentally tested whether congeneric grassland species of different geographic distribution (oceanic vs. continental plant range type responded differently to combinations of climate, competition and mollusc herbivory. We found the relative importance of biotic interactions and climate to vary between the different components of plant performance. While survival and plant height increased with precipitation, temperature had no effect on plant performance. Additionally, species with continental plant range type increased their growth in more benign climatic conditions, while those with oceanic range type were largely unable to take a similar advantage of better climatic conditions. Competition generally caused strong reductions of aboveground biomass and growth. In contrast, herbivory had minor effects on survival and growth. Against expectation, these negative effects of competition and herbivory were not mitigated under more stressful continental climate conditions. In conclusion we suggest variation in relative importance of climate and biotic interactions on broader scales, mediated via species-specific sensitivities and factor-specific response patterns. Our results have important implications for species distribution models, as they emphasize the large-scale impact of biotic interactions on plant distribution patterns and the necessity to take plant range types into account.
Bohlman, Stephanie; Rifai, Sami; Park, John; Dandois, Jonathan; Muller-Landau, Helene
2017-04-01
Phenology is a key life history trait of plant species and critical driver of ecosystem processes. There is strong evidence that phenology is shifting in temperate ecosystems in response to climate change, but tropical forest phenology remains poorly quantified and understood. A key challenge is that tropical forests contain hundreds of plant species with a wide variety of phenological patterns, which makes it difficult to collect sufficient ground-based field data to characterize individual tropical tree species phenologies. Satellite-based observations, an important source of phenology data in northern latitudes, are hindered by frequent cloud cover in the tropics. To quantify phenology over a large number of individuals and species, we collected bi-weekly images from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the well-studied 50-ha forest inventory plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. The objective of this study is to quantify inter- and intra-specific responses of tropical tree leaf phenology to environmental variation over large spatial scales and identify key environmental variables and physiological mechanisms underpinning phenological variation. Between October 2014 and December 2015 and again in May 2015, we collected a total of 35 sets of UAV images, each with continuous coverage of the 50-ha plot, where every tree ≥ 1 cm DBH is mapped. UAV imagery was corrected for exposure, orthorectified, and then processed to extract spectral, texture, and image information for individual tree crowns, which was then used as inputs for a machine learning algorithm that successfully predicted the percentages of leaf, branch, and flower cover for each tree crown (r2=0.76 between observed and predicted percent branch cover for individual tree crowns). We then quantified cumulative annual deciduousness for each crown by fitting a non-parametric curve of flexible shape to its predicted percent branch time series and calculated the area under the curve. We obtained the species
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Uri Sela
2018-01-01
Full Text Available A fundamental question in human susceptibility to bacterial infections is to what extent variability is a function of differences in the pathogen species or in individual humans. To focus on the pathogen species, we compared in the same individual the human adaptive T and B cell immune response to multiple strains of two major human pathogens, Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pyogenes. We found wide variability in the acute adaptive immune response induced by various strains of a species, with a unique combination of activation within the two arms of the adaptive response. Further, this was also accompanied by a dramatic difference in the intensity of the specific protective T helper (Th response. Importantly, the same immune response differences induced by the individual strains were maintained across multiple healthy human donors. A comparison of isogenic phage KO strains, demonstrated that of the pangenome, prophages were the major contributor to inter-strain immune heterogeneity, as the T cell response to the remaining "core genome" was noticeably blunted. Therefore, these findings extend and modify the notion of an adaptive response to a pathogenic bacterium, by implying that the adaptive immune response signature of a bacterial species should be defined either per strain or alternatively to the species' 'core genome', common to all of its strains. Further, our results demonstrate that the acquired immune response variation is as wide among different strains within a single pathogenic species as it is among different humans, and therefore may explain in part the clinical heterogeneity observed in patients infected with the same species.
Do host species evolve a specific response to slave-making ants?
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Delattre Olivier
2012-12-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Social parasitism is an important selective pressure for social insect species. It is particularly the case for the hosts of dulotic (so called slave-making ants, which pillage the brood of host colonies to increase the worker force of their own colony. Such raids can have an important impact on the fitness of the host nest. An arms race which can lead to geographic variation in host defenses is thus expected between hosts and parasites. In this study we tested whether the presence of a social parasite (the dulotic ant Myrmoxenus ravouxi within an ant community correlated with a specific behavioral defense strategy of local host or non-host populations of Temnothorax ants. Social recognition often leads to more or less pronounced agonistic interactions between non-nestmates ants. Here, we monitored agonistic behaviors to assess whether ants discriminate social parasites from other ants. It is now well-known that ants essentially rely on cuticular hydrocarbons to discriminate nestmates from aliens. If host species have evolved a specific recognition mechanism for their parasite, we hypothesize that the differences in behavioral responses would not be fully explained simply by quantitative dissimilarity in cuticular hydrocarbon profiles, but should also involve a qualitative response due to the detection of particular compounds. We scaled the behavioral results according to the quantitative chemical distance between host and parasite colonies to test this hypothesis. Results Cuticular hydrocarbon profiles were distinct between species, but host species did not show a clearly higher aggression rate towards the parasite than toward non-parasite intruders, unless the degree of response was scaled by the chemical distance between intruders and recipient colonies. By doing so, we show that workers of the host and of a non-host species in the parasitized site displayed more agonistic behaviors (bites and ejections towards parasite
Ecological niche transferability using invasive species as a case study.
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Miguel Fernández
Full Text Available Species distribution modeling is widely applied to predict invasive species distributions and species range shifts under climate change. Accurate predictions depend upon meeting the assumption that ecological niches are conserved, i.e., spatially or temporally transferable. Here we present a multi-taxon comparative analysis of niche conservatism using biological invasion events well documented in natural history museum collections. Our goal is to assess spatial transferability of the climatic niche of a range of noxious terrestrial invasive species using two complementary approaches. First we compare species' native versus invasive ranges in environmental space using two distinct methods, Principal Components Analysis and Mahalanobis distance. Second we compare species' native versus invaded ranges in geographic space as estimated using the species distribution modeling technique Maxent and the comparative index Hellinger's I. We find that species exhibit a range of responses, from almost complete transferability, in which the invaded niches completely overlap with the native niches, to a complete dissociation between native and invaded ranges. Intermediate responses included expansion of dimension attributable to either temperature or precipitation derived variables, as well as niche expansion in multiple dimensions. We conclude that the ecological niche in the native range is generally a poor predictor of invaded range and, by analogy, the ecological niche may be a poor predictor of range shifts under climate change. We suggest that assessing dimensions of niche transferability prior to standard species distribution modeling may improve the understanding of species' dynamics in the invaded range.
This document provides a comprehensive review to evaluate the reliability of indicator species toxicity test results in predicting aquatic ecosystem impacts, also called the ecological relevance of laboratory single species toxicity tests.
Pre-treatment amygdala volume predicts electroconvulsive therapy response
ten Doesschate, Freek; van Eijndhoven, Philip; Tendolkar, Indira; van Wingen, Guido A.; van Waarde, Jeroen A.
2014-01-01
Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is an effective treatment for patients with severe depression. Knowledge on factors predicting therapeutic response may help to identify patients who will benefit most from the intervention. Based on the neuroplasticity hypothesis, volumes of the amygdala and
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Elvira Mächler
Full Text Available Factors such as increased mobility of humans, global trade and climate change are affecting the range of many species, and cause large-scale translocations of species beyond their native range. Many introduced species have a strong negative influence on the new local environment and lead to high economic costs. There is a strong interest to understand why some species are successful in invading new environments and others not. Most of our understanding and generalizations thereof, however, are based on studies of plants and animals, and little is known on invasion processes of microorganisms. We conducted a microcosm experiment to understand factors promoting the success of biological invasions of aquatic microorganisms. In a controlled lab experiment, protist and rotifer species originally isolated in North America invaded into a natural, field-collected community of microorganisms of European origin. To identify the importance of environmental disturbances on invasion success, we either repeatedly disturbed the local patches, or kept them as undisturbed controls. We measured both short-term establishment and long-term invasion success, and correlated it with species-specific life-history traits. We found that environmental disturbances significantly affected invasion success. Depending on the invading species' identity, disturbances were either promoting or decreasing invasion success. The interaction between habitat disturbance and species identity was especially pronounced for long-term invasion success. Growth rate was the most important trait promoting invasion success, especially when the species invaded into a disturbed local community. We conclude that neither species traits nor environmental factors alone conclusively predict invasion success, but an integration of both of them is necessary.
Analytical predictions of SGEMP response and comparisons with computer calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
de Plomb, E.P.
1976-01-01
An analytical formulation for the prediction of SGEMP surface current response is presented. Only two independent dimensionless parameters are required to predict the peak magnitude and rise time of SGEMP induced surface currents. The analysis applies to limited (high fluence) emission as well as unlimited (low fluence) emission. Cause-effect relationships for SGEMP response are treated quantitatively, and yield simple power law dependencies between several physical variables. Analytical predictions for a large matrix of SGEMP cases are compared with an array of about thirty-five computer solutions of similar SGEMP problems, which were collected from three independent research groups. The theoretical solutions generally agree with the computer solutions as well as the computer solutions agree with one another. Such comparisons typically show variations less than a ''factor of two.''
Response of Microtermes mycophagus (Isoptera: Termitidae to twenty one wood species
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Naeem Iqbal
2015-08-01
Full Text Available The responses of termite species to bait depend upon the quality of the food used in the stations. Woods are the most common food sources for termites but different termite species behave differently to different wood species and types. The knowledge of the preference status of different wood species to a termite species helps in effective monitoring and baiting program. The current study was carried out to evaluate the preference of 21 wood species to the termite, Microtermes mycophagus in the field by no-choice and choice feeding tests. The results indicated silk cotton tree and sacred fig woods as the most preferred wood species with mean mass losses of 71.21 ± 5.09% and 68.38 ± 7.27% in no-choice test and 95.02 ± 1.65% and 91.69 ± 2.07% in choice tests, respectively. White cedar was the least preferred wood species with mean mass losses of 7.49 ± 1.64% and 13.92 ± 1.89% in no choice and choice feeding tests, respectively. Based on present studies, sapwood of silk cotton tree and sacred fig may be used in effective monitoring and baiting program against M. mycophagus.
Prediction of First-Order Vessel Responses with Applications to Decision Support Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Ulrik D.; Iseki, Toshio
2015-01-01
The paper presents a practical and simple approach for making vessel response predictions. Features of the procedure include a) predictions which are scaled so to better agree with corresponding true, future values to be measured at the time the predictions apply at; and b) predictions that are a...
Change in avian abundance predicted from regional forest inventory data
Twedt, Daniel J.; Tirpak, John M.; Jones-Farrand, D. Todd; Thompson, Frank R.; Uihlein, William B.; Fitzgerald, Jane A.
2010-01-01
An inability to predict population response to future habitat projections is a shortcoming in bird conservation planning. We sought to predict avian response to projections of future forest conditions that were developed from nationwide forest surveys within the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. To accomplish this, we evaluated the historical relationship between silvicolous bird populations and FIA-derived forest conditions within 25 ecoregions that comprise the southeastern United States. We aggregated forest area by forest ownership, forest type, and tree size-class categories in county-based ecoregions for 5 time periods spanning 1963-2008. We assessed the relationship of forest data with contemporaneous indices of abundance for 24 silvicolous bird species that were obtained from Breeding Bird Surveys. Relationships between bird abundance and forest inventory data for 18 species were deemed sufficient as predictive models. We used these empirically derived relationships between regional forest conditions and bird populations to predict relative changes in abundance of these species within ecoregions that are anticipated to coincide with projected changes in forest variables through 2040. Predicted abundances of these 18 species are expected to remain relatively stable in over a quarter (27%) of the ecoregions. However, change in forest area and redistribution of forest types will likely result in changed abundance of some species within many ecosystems. For example, abundances of 11 species, including pine warbler (Dendroica pinus), brown-headed nuthatch (Sitta pusilla), and chuckwills- widow (Caprimulgus carolinensis), are projected to increase within more ecoregions than ecoregions where they will decrease. For 6 other species, such as blue-winged warbler (Vermivora pinus), Carolina wren (Thryothorus ludovicianus), and indigo bunting (Passerina cyanea), we projected abundances will decrease within more ecoregions than ecoregions where they will
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Yamaguchi-Shinozaki Kazuko
2011-02-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Phytohormones organize plant development and environmental adaptation through cell-to-cell signal transduction, and their action involves transcriptional activation. Recent international efforts to establish and maintain public databases of Arabidopsis microarray data have enabled the utilization of this data in the analysis of various phytohormone responses, providing genome-wide identification of promoters targeted by phytohormones. Results We utilized such microarray data for prediction of cis-regulatory elements with an octamer-based approach. Our test prediction of a drought-responsive RD29A promoter with the aid of microarray data for response to drought, ABA and overexpression of DREB1A, a key regulator of cold and drought response, provided reasonable results that fit with the experimentally identified regulatory elements. With this succession, we expanded the prediction to various phytohormone responses, including those for abscisic acid, auxin, cytokinin, ethylene, brassinosteroid, jasmonic acid, and salicylic acid, as well as for hydrogen peroxide, drought and DREB1A overexpression. Totally 622 promoters that are activated by phytohormones were subjected to the prediction. In addition, we have assigned putative functions to 53 octamers of the Regulatory Element Group (REG that have been extracted as position-dependent cis-regulatory elements with the aid of their feature of preferential appearance in the promoter region. Conclusions Our prediction of Arabidopsis cis-regulatory elements for phytohormone responses provides guidance for experimental analysis of promoters to reveal the basis of the transcriptional network of phytohormone responses.
DeGuzman, Marisa; Shott, Megan E; Yang, Tony T; Riederer, Justin; Frank, Guido K W
2017-06-01
Anorexia nervosa is a psychiatric disorder of unknown etiology. Understanding associations between behavior and neurobiology is important in treatment development. Using a novel monetary reward task during functional magnetic resonance brain imaging, the authors tested how brain reward learning in adolescent anorexia nervosa changes with weight restoration. Female adolescents with anorexia nervosa (N=21; mean age, 16.4 years [SD=1.9]) underwent functional MRI (fMRI) before and after treatment; similarly, healthy female control adolescents (N=21; mean age, 15.2 years [SD=2.4]) underwent fMRI on two occasions. Brain function was tested using the reward prediction error construct, a computational model for reward receipt and omission related to motivation and neural dopamine responsiveness. Compared with the control group, the anorexia nervosa group exhibited greater brain response 1) for prediction error regression within the caudate, ventral caudate/nucleus accumbens, and anterior and posterior insula, 2) to unexpected reward receipt in the anterior and posterior insula, and 3) to unexpected reward omission in the caudate body. Prediction error and unexpected reward omission response tended to normalize with treatment, while unexpected reward receipt response remained significantly elevated. Greater caudate prediction error response when underweight was associated with lower weight gain during treatment. Punishment sensitivity correlated positively with ventral caudate prediction error response. Reward system responsiveness is elevated in adolescent anorexia nervosa when underweight and after weight restoration. Heightened prediction error activity in brain reward regions may represent a phenotype of adolescent anorexia nervosa that does not respond well to treatment. Prediction error response could be a neurobiological marker of illness severity that can indicate individual treatment needs.
Garcia, Erik J; Cain, Mary E
2016-02-01
Novelty and sensation seeking (NSS) predisposes humans and rats to experiment with psychostimulants. In animal models, different tests of NSS predict different phases of drug dependence. Ultrasonic vocalizations (USVs) are evoked by psychomotor stimulants and measure the affective/motivation response to stimuli, yet the role NSS has on USVs in response to amphetamine is not determined. The aim of the present study was to determine if individual differences in NSS and USVs can predict locomotor and USV response to amphetamine (0.0, 0.3, and 1.0 mg/kg) after acute and chronic exposure. Thirty male rats were tested for their response to novelty (IEN), choice to engage in novelty (NPP), and heterospecific play (H-USV). Rats were administered non-contingent amphetamine or saline for seven exposures, and USVs and locomotor activity were measured. After a 14-day rest, rats were administered a challenge dose of amphetamine. Regression analyses indicated that amphetamine dose-dependently increased locomotor activity and the NPP test negatively predicted treatment-induced locomotor activity. The H-USV test predicted treatment-induced frequency-modulated (FM) USVs, but the strength of prediction depended on IEN response. Results provide evidence that locomotor activity and FM USVs induced by amphetamine represent different behavioral responses. The prediction of amphetamine-induced FM USVs by the H-USV screen was changed by the novelty response, indicating that the affective value of amphetamine-measured by FM USVs-depends on novelty response. This provides evidence that higher novelty responders may develop a tolerance faster and may escalate intake faster.
Sleep spindles may predict response to cognitive-behavioral therapy for chronic insomnia.
Dang-Vu, Thien Thanh; Hatch, Benjamin; Salimi, Ali; Mograss, Melodee; Boucetta, Soufiane; O'Byrne, Jordan; Brandewinder, Marie; Berthomier, Christian; Gouin, Jean-Philippe
2017-11-01
While cognitive-behavioral therapy for insomnia constitutes the first-line treatment for chronic insomnia, only few reports have investigated how sleep architecture relates to response to this treatment. In this pilot study, we aimed to determine whether pre-treatment sleep spindle density predicts treatment response to cognitive-behavioral therapy for insomnia. Twenty-four participants with chronic primary insomnia participated in a 6-week cognitive-behavioral therapy for insomnia performed in groups of 4-6 participants. Treatment response was assessed using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index and the Insomnia Severity Index measured at pre- and post-treatment, and at 3- and 12-months' follow-up assessments. Secondary outcome measures were extracted from sleep diaries over 7 days and overnight polysomnography, obtained at pre- and post-treatment. Spindle density during stage N2-N3 sleep was extracted from polysomnography at pre-treatment. Hierarchical linear modeling analysis assessed whether sleep spindle density predicted response to cognitive-behavioral therapy. After adjusting for age, sex, and education level, lower spindle density at pre-treatment predicted poorer response over the 12-month follow-up, as reflected by a smaller reduction in Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index over time. Reduced spindle density also predicted lower improvements in sleep diary sleep efficiency and wake after sleep onset immediately after treatment. There were no significant associations between spindle density and changes in the Insomnia Severity Index or polysomnography variables over time. These preliminary results suggest that inter-individual differences in sleep spindle density in insomnia may represent an endogenous biomarker predicting responsiveness to cognitive-behavioral therapy. Insomnia with altered spindle activity might constitute an insomnia subtype characterized by a neurophysiological vulnerability to sleep disruption associated with impaired responsiveness to
Hua, Fangyuan; Fletcher, Robert J.; Sieving, Kathryn E.; Dorazio, Robert M.
2013-01-01
Predation risk is widely hypothesized as an important force structuring communities, but this potential force is rarely tested experimentally, particularly in terrestrial vertebrate communities. How animals respond to predation risk is generally considered predictable from species life-history and natural-history traits, but rigorous tests of these predictions remain scarce. We report on a large-scale playback experiment with a forest bird community that addresses two questions: (i) does perceived predation risk shape the richness and composition of a breeding bird community? And (ii) can species life-history and natural-history traits predict prey community responses to different types of predation risk? On 9 ha plots, we manipulated cues of three avian predators that preferentially prey on either adult birds or offspring, or both, throughout the breeding season. We found that increased perception of predation risk led to generally negative responses in the abundance, occurrence and/or detection probability of most prey species, which in turn reduced the species richness and shifted the composition of the breeding bird community. Species-level responses were largely predicted from the key natural-history trait of body size, but we did not find support for the life-history theory prediction of the relationship between species' slow/fast life-history strategy and their response to predation risk.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhiming Lin
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Objectives. To evaluate the efficiency and the predictive factors of clinical response of infliximab in active nonradiographic axial spondyloarthritis patients. Methods. Active nonradiographic patients fulfilling ESSG criteria for SpA but not fulfilling modified New York criteria were included. All patients received infliximab treatment for 24 weeks. The primary endpoint was ASAS20 response at weeks 12 and 24. The abilities of baseline parameters and response at week 2 to predict ASAS20 response at weeks 12 and 24 were assessed using ROC curve and logistic regression analysis, respectively. Results. Of 70 axial SpA patients included, the proportions of patients achieving an ASAS20 response at weeks 2, 6, 12, and 24 were 85.7%, 88.6%, 87.1%, and 84.3%, respectively. Baseline MRI sacroiliitis score (AUC = 0.791; P=0.005, CRP (AUC = 0.75; P=0.017, and ASDAS (AUC = 0.778, P=0.007 significantly predicted ASAS20 response at week 12. However, only ASDAS (AUC = 0.696, P=0.040 significantly predicted ASAS20 response at week 24. Achievement of ASAS20 response after the first infliximab infusion was a significant predictor of subsequent ASAS20 response at weeks 12 and 24 (wald χ2=6.87, P=0.009, and wald χ2=5.171, P=0.023. Conclusions. Infliximab shows efficiency in active nonradiographic axial spondyloarthritis patients. ASDAS score and first-dose response could help predicting clinical efficacy of infliximab therapy in these patients.
Patient-ventilator asynchrony affects pulse pressure variation prediction of fluid responsiveness.
Messina, Antonio; Colombo, Davide; Cammarota, Gianmaria; De Lucia, Marta; Cecconi, Maurizio; Antonelli, Massimo; Corte, Francesco Della; Navalesi, Paolo
2015-10-01
During partial ventilatory support, pulse pressure variation (PPV) fails to adequately predict fluid responsiveness. This prospective study aims to investigate whether patient-ventilator asynchrony affects PPV prediction of fluid responsiveness during pressure support ventilation (PSV). This is an observational physiological study evaluating the response to a 500-mL fluid challenge in 54 patients receiving PSV, 27 without (Synch) and 27 with asynchronies (Asynch), as assessed by visual inspection of ventilator waveforms by 2 skilled blinded physicians. The area under the curve was 0.71 (confidence interval, 0.57-0.83) for the overall population, 0.86 (confidence interval, 0.68-0.96) in the Synch group, and 0.53 (confidence interval, 0.33-0.73) in the Asynch group (P = .018). Sensitivity and specificity of PPV were 78% and 89% in the Synch group and 36% and 46% in the Asynch group. Logistic regression showed that the PPV prediction was influenced by patient-ventilator asynchrony (odds ratio, 8.8 [2.0-38.0]; P < .003). Of the 27 patients without asynchronies, 12 had a tidal volume greater than or equal to 8 mL/kg; in this subgroup, the rate of correct classification was 100%. Patient-ventilator asynchrony affects PPV performance during partial ventilatory support influencing its efficacy in predicting fluid responsiveness. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Prefrontal mediation of the reading network predicts intervention response in dyslexia.
Aboud, Katherine S; Barquero, Laura A; Cutting, Laurie E
2018-04-01
A primary challenge facing the development of interventions for dyslexia is identifying effective predictors of intervention response. While behavioral literature has identified core cognitive characteristics of response, the distinction of reading versus executive cognitive contributions to response profiles remains unclear, due in part to the difficulty of segregating these constructs using behavioral outputs. In the current study we used functional neuroimaging to piece apart the mechanisms of how/whether executive and reading network relationships are predictive of intervention response. We found that readers who are responsive to intervention have more typical pre-intervention functional interactions between executive and reading systems compared to nonresponsive readers. These findings suggest that intervention response in dyslexia is influenced not only by domain-specific reading regions, but also by contributions from intervening domain-general networks. Our results make a significant gain in identifying predictive bio-markers of outcomes in dyslexia, and have important implications for the development of personalized clinical interventions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Corruption, development and governance indicators predict invasive species risk from trade.
Brenton-Rule, Evan C; Barbieri, Rafael F; Lester, Philip J
2016-06-15
Invasive species have an enormous global impact, with international trade being the leading pathway for their introduction. Current multinational trade deals under negotiation will dramatically change trading partnerships and pathways. These changes have considerable potential to influence biological invasions and global biodiversity. Using a database of 47 328 interceptions spanning 10 years, we demonstrate how development and governance socio-economic indicators of trading partners can predict exotic species interceptions. For import pathways associated with vegetable material, a significantly higher risk of exotic species interceptions was associated with countries that are poorly regulated, have more forest cover and have surprisingly low corruption. Corruption and indicators such as political stability or adherence to rule of law were important in vehicle or timber import pathways. These results will be of considerable value to policy makers, primarily by shifting quarantine procedures to focus on countries of high risk based on their socio-economic status. Further, using New Zealand as an example, we demonstrate how a ninefold reduction in incursions could be achieved if socio-economic indicators were used to select trade partners. International trade deals that ignore governance and development indicators may facilitate introductions and biodiversity loss. Development and governance within countries clearly have biodiversity implications beyond borders. © 2016 The Author(s).
Sexual conflict predicts morphology and behavior in two species of penduline tits
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Komdeur Jan
2010-04-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The evolutionary interests of males and females rarely coincide (sexual conflict, and these conflicting interests influence morphology, behavior and speciation in various organisms. We examined consequences of variation in sexual conflict in two closely-related passerine birds with contrasting breeding systems: the Eurasian penduline tit Remiz pendulinus (EPT exhibiting a highly polygamous breeding system with sexually antagonistic interests over parental care, and the socially monogamous Cape penduline tit Anthoscopus minutus (CPT. We derived four a priori predictions from sexual conflict theory and tested these using data collected in Central Europe (EPT and South Africa (CPT. Firstly, we predicted that EPTs exhibit more sexually dimorphic plumage than CPTs due to more intense sexual selection. Secondly, we expected brighter EPT males to provide less care than duller males. Thirdly, since song is a sexually selected trait in many birds, male EPTs were expected to exhibit more complex songs than CPT males. Finally, intense sexual conflict in EPT was expected to lead to low nest attendance as an indication of sexually antagonistic interests, whereas we expected more cooperation between parents in CPT consistent with their socially monogamous breeding system. Results Consistent with our predictions EPTs exhibited greater sexual dimorphism in plumage and more complex song than CPTs, and brighter EPT males provided less care than duller ones. EPT parents attended the nest less frequently and less simultaneously than CPT parents. Conclusions These results are consistent with sexual conflict theory: species in which sexual conflict is more manifested (EPT exhibited a stronger sexual dimorphism and more elaborated sexually selected traits than species with less intense sexual conflict (CPT. Our results are also consistent with the notion that EPTs attempt to force their partner to work harder as expected under sexual conflict: each
Sexual conflict predicts morphology and behavior in two species of penduline tits.
van Dijk, René E; Pogány, Akos; Komdeur, Jan; Lloyd, Penn; Székely, Tamás
2010-04-23
The evolutionary interests of males and females rarely coincide (sexual conflict), and these conflicting interests influence morphology, behavior and speciation in various organisms. We examined consequences of variation in sexual conflict in two closely-related passerine birds with contrasting breeding systems: the Eurasian penduline tit Remiz pendulinus (EPT) exhibiting a highly polygamous breeding system with sexually antagonistic interests over parental care, and the socially monogamous Cape penduline tit Anthoscopus minutus (CPT). We derived four a priori predictions from sexual conflict theory and tested these using data collected in Central Europe (EPT) and South Africa (CPT). Firstly, we predicted that EPTs exhibit more sexually dimorphic plumage than CPTs due to more intense sexual selection. Secondly, we expected brighter EPT males to provide less care than duller males. Thirdly, since song is a sexually selected trait in many birds, male EPTs were expected to exhibit more complex songs than CPT males. Finally, intense sexual conflict in EPT was expected to lead to low nest attendance as an indication of sexually antagonistic interests, whereas we expected more cooperation between parents in CPT consistent with their socially monogamous breeding system. Consistent with our predictions EPTs exhibited greater sexual dimorphism in plumage and more complex song than CPTs, and brighter EPT males provided less care than duller ones. EPT parents attended the nest less frequently and less simultaneously than CPT parents. These results are consistent with sexual conflict theory: species in which sexual conflict is more manifested (EPT) exhibited a stronger sexual dimorphism and more elaborated sexually selected traits than species with less intense sexual conflict (CPT). Our results are also consistent with the notion that EPTs attempt to force their partner to work harder as expected under sexual conflict: each member of the breeding pair attempts to shift the
Prediction of human population responses to toxic compounds by a collaborative competition.
Eduati, Federica; Mangravite, Lara M; Wang, Tao; Tang, Hao; Bare, J Christopher; Huang, Ruili; Norman, Thea; Kellen, Mike; Menden, Michael P; Yang, Jichen; Zhan, Xiaowei; Zhong, Rui; Xiao, Guanghua; Xia, Menghang; Abdo, Nour; Kosyk, Oksana; Friend, Stephen; Dearry, Allen; Simeonov, Anton; Tice, Raymond R; Rusyn, Ivan; Wright, Fred A; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Xie, Yang; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio
2015-09-01
The ability to computationally predict the effects of toxic compounds on humans could help address the deficiencies of current chemical safety testing. Here, we report the results from a community-based DREAM challenge to predict toxicities of environmental compounds with potential adverse health effects for human populations. We measured the cytotoxicity of 156 compounds in 884 lymphoblastoid cell lines for which genotype and transcriptional data are available as part of the Tox21 1000 Genomes Project. The challenge participants developed algorithms to predict interindividual variability of toxic response from genomic profiles and population-level cytotoxicity data from structural attributes of the compounds. 179 submitted predictions were evaluated against an experimental data set to which participants were blinded. Individual cytotoxicity predictions were better than random, with modest correlations (Pearson's r < 0.28), consistent with complex trait genomic prediction. In contrast, predictions of population-level response to different compounds were higher (r < 0.66). The results highlight the possibility of predicting health risks associated with unknown compounds, although risk estimation accuracy remains suboptimal.
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Stephen R. Lindemann
2017-06-01
Full Text Available The principles governing acquisition and interspecies exchange of nutrients in microbial communities and how those exchanges impact community productivity are poorly understood. Here, we examine energy and macronutrient acquisition in unicyanobacterial consortia for which species-resolved genome information exists for all members, allowing us to use multi-omic approaches to predict species’ abilities to acquire resources and examine expression of resource-acquisition genes during succession. Metabolic reconstruction indicated that a majority of heterotrophic community members lacked the genes required to directly acquire the inorganic nutrients provided in culture medium, suggesting high metabolic interdependency. The sole primary producer in consortium UCC-O, cyanobacterium Phormidium sp. OSCR, displayed declining expression of energy harvest, carbon fixation, and nitrate and sulfate reduction proteins but sharply increasing phosphate transporter expression over 28 days. Most heterotrophic members likewise exhibited signs of phosphorus starvation during succession. Though similar in their responses to phosphorus limitation, heterotrophs displayed species-specific expression of nitrogen acquisition genes. These results suggest niche partitioning around nitrogen sources may structure the community when organisms directly compete for limited phosphate. Such niche complementarity around nitrogen sources may increase community diversity and productivity in phosphate-limited phototrophic communities.
Predictive value of brain perfusion SPECT for ketamine response in hyperalgesic fibromyalgia
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Guedj, Eric; Cammilleri, Serge; Colavolpe, Cecile; Taieb, David; Laforte, Catherine de; Mundler, Olivier [Centre Hospitalo-Universitaire de la Timone, Service Central de Biophysique et de Medecine Nucleaire, Assistance Publique des Hopitaux de Marseille, Marseille Cedex 5 (France); Niboyet, Jean [Clinique La Phoceanne, Unite d' Etude et de Traitement de la Douleur, Marseille (France)
2007-08-15
Ketamine has been used successfully in various proportions of fibromyalgia (FM) patients. However, the response to this specific treatment remains largely unpredictable. We evaluated brain SPECT perfusion before treatment with ketamine, using voxel-based analysis. The objective was to determine the predictive value of brain SPECT for ketamine response. Seventeen women with FM (48 {+-} 11 years; ACR criteria) were enrolled in the study. Brain SPECT was performed before any change was made in therapy in the pain care unit. We considered that a patient was a good responder to ketamine if the VAS score for pain decreased by at least 50% after treatment. A voxel-by-voxel group analysis was performed using SPM2, in comparison to a group of ten healthy women matched for age. The VAS score for pain was 81.8 {+-} 4.2 before ketamine and 31.8 {+-} 27.1 after ketamine. Eleven patients were considered ''good responders'' to ketamine. Responder and non-responder subgroups were similar in terms of pain intensity before ketamine. In comparison to responding patients and healthy subjects, non-responding patients exhibited a significant reduction in bilateral perfusion of the medial frontal gyrus. This cluster of hypoperfusion was highly predictive of non-response to ketamine (positive predictive value 100%, negative predictive value 91%). Brain perfusion SPECT may predict response to ketamine in hyperalgesic FM patients. (orig.)
Predictive value of brain perfusion SPECT for ketamine response in hyperalgesic fibromyalgia
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guedj, Eric; Cammilleri, Serge; Colavolpe, Cecile; Taieb, David; Laforte, Catherine de; Mundler, Olivier; Niboyet, Jean
2007-01-01
Ketamine has been used successfully in various proportions of fibromyalgia (FM) patients. However, the response to this specific treatment remains largely unpredictable. We evaluated brain SPECT perfusion before treatment with ketamine, using voxel-based analysis. The objective was to determine the predictive value of brain SPECT for ketamine response. Seventeen women with FM (48 ± 11 years; ACR criteria) were enrolled in the study. Brain SPECT was performed before any change was made in therapy in the pain care unit. We considered that a patient was a good responder to ketamine if the VAS score for pain decreased by at least 50% after treatment. A voxel-by-voxel group analysis was performed using SPM2, in comparison to a group of ten healthy women matched for age. The VAS score for pain was 81.8 ± 4.2 before ketamine and 31.8 ± 27.1 after ketamine. Eleven patients were considered ''good responders'' to ketamine. Responder and non-responder subgroups were similar in terms of pain intensity before ketamine. In comparison to responding patients and healthy subjects, non-responding patients exhibited a significant reduction in bilateral perfusion of the medial frontal gyrus. This cluster of hypoperfusion was highly predictive of non-response to ketamine (positive predictive value 100%, negative predictive value 91%). Brain perfusion SPECT may predict response to ketamine in hyperalgesic FM patients. (orig.)
Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming
Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Thomas R. Crow
1999-01-01
No single model can address forest change from single tree to regional scales. We discuss a framework linking an ecosystem process model {LINKAGES) with a spatial landscape model (LANDIS) to examine forest species responses to climate warming for a large, heterogeneous landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was...
Growth responses of maritime sand dune plant species to arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi
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Mariusz Tadych
2014-08-01
Full Text Available In a pot experiment conducted in a greenhouse, the response of 6 plant species dominating in the succession of vegetation of a deflation hollow of the Łeba Bar to inoculation with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF was investigated. The inoculum was a mixture of soil, roots and spores of 5 species of AMF with the dominant species Glomus aggregatum. Except for Corynephorus canescens and Festuca rubra subsp. arenaria, both the growth and the dry matter of above-ground parts of plants of Agrostis stolonifera, Ammophila arenaria, Corynephorus canescens, Juncus articulatus and J. balticus inoculated with AMF were higher than those growing in soils lacking infection propagules of these fungi. Inoculation with AMF decreased the dry matter of root: shoot ratios in 5 plant species. This property was not determined in Festuca rubra subsp. arenaria due to the death of all control plants. The level of mycorrhizal infection was low and did not correlate with the growth responses found. The high growth reaction of Juncus spp. to AMF found in this study suggests that the opinion of non-mycotrophy or low dependence of plants of Juncaceae on AMF was based on results of investigations of plants growing in wet sites known to inhibit the formation of mycorrhizae.
Wiedermann, Magdalena M; Gunnarsson, Urban; Ericson, Lars; Nordin, Annika
2009-01-01
Here, it was investigated whether Sphagnum species have adjusted their nitrogen (N) uptake in response to the anthropogenic N deposition that has drastically altered N-limited ecosystems, including peatlands, worldwide. A lawn species, Sphagnum balticum, and a hummock species, Sphagnum fuscum, were collected from three peatlands along a gradient of N deposition (2, 8 and 12 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1)). The mosses were subjected to solutions containing a mixture of four N forms. In each solution one of these N forms was labeled with (15)N (namely (15)NH(+)(4), (15)NO(-)(3) and the amino acids [(15)N]alanine (Ala) and [(15)N]glutamic acid (Glu)). It was found that for both species most of the N taken up was from , followed by Ala, Glu, and very small amounts from NO(-)(3). At the highest N deposition site N uptake was reduced, but this did not prevent N accumulation as free amino acids in the Sphagnum tissues. The reduced N uptake may have been genetically selected for under the relatively short period with elevated N exposure from anthropogenic sources, or may have been the result of plasticity in the Sphagnum physiological response. The negligible Sphagnum NO(-)(3) uptake may make any NO(-)(3) deposited readily available to co-occurring vascular plants.
Prediction of Early Response to Chemotherapy in Lung Cancer by Using Diffusion-Weighted MR Imaging
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Jing Yu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Purpose. To determine whether change of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC value could predict early response to chemotherapy in lung cancer. Materials and Methods. Twenty-five patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer underwent chest MR imaging including DWI before and at the end of the first cycle of chemotherapy. The tumor’s mean ADC value and diameters on MR images were calculated and compared. The grouping reference was based on serial CT scans according to Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors. Logistic regression was applied to assess treatment response prediction ability of ADC value and diameters. Results. The change of ADC value in partial response group was higher than that in stable disease group (P=0.004. ROC curve showed that ADC value could predict treatment response with 100% sensitivity, 64.71% specificity, 57.14% positive predictive value, 100% negative predictive value, and 82.7% accuracy. The area under the curve for combination of ADC value and longest diameter change was higher than any parameter alone (P≤0.01. Conclusions. The change of ADC value may be a sensitive indicator to predict early response to chemotherapy in lung cancer. Prediction ability could be improved by combining the change of ADC value and longest diameter.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alecia J Carter
Full Text Available Animal personality, repeatable behaviour through time and across contexts, is ecologically and evolutionarily important as it can account for the exhibition of sub-optimal behaviours. Interspecific comparisons have been suggested as important for understanding the evolution of animal personality; however, these are seldom accomplished due, in part, to the lack of statistical tools for quantifying differences and similarities in behaviour between groups of individuals. We used nine species of closely-related coral reef fishes to investigate the usefulness of ecological community analyses for the analysis of between-species behavioural differences and behavioural heterogeneity. We first documented behavioural carryover across species by observing the fishes' behaviour and measuring their response to a threatening stimulus to quantify boldness. Bold fish spent more time away from the reef and fed more than shy fish. We then used ecological community analysis tools (canonical variate analysis, multi-response permutation procedure, and permutational analysis of multivariate dispersion and identified four 'clusters' of behaviourally similar fishes, and found that the species differ in the behavioural variation expressed; some species are more behaviourally heterogeneous than others. We found that ecological community analysis tools are easily and fruitfully applied to comparative studies of personality and encourage their use by future studies.
Louis R Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Mark W. Schwartz; Mark W. Schwartz
2005-01-01
We predict current distribution and abundance for tree species present in eastern North America, and subsequently estimate potential suitable habitat for those species under a changed climate with 2 x CO2. We used a series of statistical models (i.e., Regression Tree Analysis (RTA), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Bagging Trees (...
Use of molecular markers for predicting therapy response in cancer patients.
LENUS (Irish Health Repository)
Duffy, Michael J
2012-02-01
Predictive markers are factors that are associated with upfront response or resistance to a particular therapy. Predictive markers are important in oncology as tumors of the same tissue of origin vary widely in their response to most available systemic therapies. Currently recommended oncological predictive markers include both estrogen and progesterone receptors for identifying patients with breast cancers likely to benefit from hormone therapy, HER-2 for the identification of breast cancer patients likely to benefit from trastuzumab, specific K-RAS mutations for the identification of patients with advanced colorectal cancer unlikely to benefit from either cetuximab or panitumumab and specific EGFR mutations for selecting patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer for treatment with tyrosine kinase inhibitors such as gefitinib and erlotinib. The availability of predictive markers should increase drug efficacy and decrease toxicity, thus leading to a more personalized approach to cancer treatment.
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Jan Ketil Arnulf
Full Text Available Some disciplines in the social sciences rely heavily on collecting survey responses to detect empirical relationships among variables. We explored whether these relationships were a priori predictable from the semantic properties of the survey items, using language processing algorithms which are now available as new research methods. Language processing algorithms were used to calculate the semantic similarity among all items in state-of-the-art surveys from Organisational Behaviour research. These surveys covered areas such as transformational leadership, work motivation and work outcomes. This information was used to explain and predict the response patterns from real subjects. Semantic algorithms explained 60-86% of the variance in the response patterns and allowed remarkably precise prediction of survey responses from humans, except in a personality test. Even the relationships between independent and their purported dependent variables were accurately predicted. This raises concern about the empirical nature of data collected through some surveys if results are already given a priori through the way subjects are being asked. Survey response patterns seem heavily determined by semantics. Language algorithms may suggest these prior to administering a survey. This study suggests that semantic algorithms are becoming new tools for the social sciences, opening perspectives on survey responses that prevalent psychometric theory cannot explain.
Mid-winter European dabbling duck distributions are not linked to species body mass
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dalby, Lars; Delany, Simon; Fox, Anthony David
are likely to play a major role in determining the wintering distribution of short- to medium-distance migratory bird species and its inter-annual variability. As avian thermoregulatory costs scale allometrically with body size, we predicted that the mean mid-winter temperature experienced by six species...... of dabbling ducks wintering in Western Europe would be negatively correlated with body mass. We found no evidence for such a relationship in a large-scale analysis testing for a link between temperature and dabbling duck distributions, suggesting that other factors such as those related to feeding ecology......In order to understand the current changes and to predict future changes in wintering dabbling duck (Anas sp.) distributions in response to climate change, it is important to understand how species distribute themselves on a continental scale in response to temperature. Thermoregulatory costs...
Species-area relationships are controlled by species traits.
Franzén, Markus; Schweiger, Oliver; Betzholtz, Per-Eric
2012-01-01
The species-area relationship (SAR) is one of the most thoroughly investigated empirical relationships in ecology. Two theories have been proposed to explain SARs: classical island biogeography theory and niche theory. Classical island biogeography theory considers the processes of persistence, extinction, and colonization, whereas niche theory focuses on species requirements, such as habitat and resource use. Recent studies have called for the unification of these two theories to better explain the underlying mechanisms that generates SARs. In this context, species traits that can be related to each theory seem promising. Here we analyzed the SARs of butterfly and moth assemblages on islands differing in size and isolation. We tested whether species traits modify the SAR and the response to isolation. In addition to the expected overall effects on the area, traits related to each of the two theories increased the model fit, from 69% up to 90%. Steeper slopes have been shown to have a particularly higher sensitivity to area, which was indicated by species with restricted range (slope = 0.82), narrow dietary niche (slope= 0.59), low abundance (slope= 0.52), and low reproductive potential (slope = 0.51). We concluded that considering species traits by analyzing SARs yields considerable potential for unifying island biogeography theory and niche theory, and that the systematic and predictable effects observed when considering traits can help to guide conservation and management actions.
Etxebeste, Iñaki; Lencina, José L; Pajares, Juan
2013-10-01
Some bark beetle species (Coleoptera: Scolytinae) produce aggregation pheromones that allow coordinated attack on their conifer hosts. As a new saproxylic habitat is founded, an assemblage of associated beetles kairomonally respond to bark beetle infochemicals. Ips sexdentatus is one of the major damaging insects of Pinus spp. in Southern Europe. Its response to varying ipsenol (Ie) percentages in relation to ipsdienol (Id) was studied in northwestern Spain, along with the entire saproxylic beetle assemblage captured at multiple-funnel traps. Response profile modeling was undertaken for I. sexdentatus sexes and sex-ratios, associated species and for selected trophic groups using a reference Gaussian model. In addition, the effects on the saproxylic assemblages were analyzed. I. sexdentatus response curve peaked at 22.7% Ie content, while remaining taxa that could be modeled, peaked above ca. 40% Ie. Predator guilds showed a linear relationship with Ie proportion, while competitors showed a delayed response peak. Consequently, species assemblages differed markedly between varying pheromone component mixtures. Given that the evaluated pheromonal proportions mimicked that of logs being colonized by I. sexdentatus, results suggested that the registered differential responses at different levels might provide I. sexdentatus with a temporal window that maximizes conspecific attraction while reducing interference with competitor and predatory guilds. Described responses might help improve the monitoring of the population status of target bark beetles and their associates, but also point toward the by-catch of many natural enemies, as well as rare saproxylic beetle species, interfering with the aims of sustainable forest management.
Syfert, Mindy M; Smith, Matthew J; Coomes, David A
2013-01-01
Species distribution models (SDMs) trained on presence-only data are frequently used in ecological research and conservation planning. However, users of SDM software are faced with a variety of options, and it is not always obvious how selecting one option over another will affect model performance. Working with MaxEnt software and with tree fern presence data from New Zealand, we assessed whether (a) choosing to correct for geographical sampling bias and (b) using complex environmental response curves have strong effects on goodness of fit. SDMs were trained on tree fern data, obtained from an online biodiversity data portal, with two sources that differed in size and geographical sampling bias: a small, widely-distributed set of herbarium specimens and a large, spatially clustered set of ecological survey records. We attempted to correct for geographical sampling bias by incorporating sampling bias grids in the SDMs, created from all georeferenced vascular plants in the datasets, and explored model complexity issues by fitting a wide variety of environmental response curves (known as "feature types" in MaxEnt). In each case, goodness of fit was assessed by comparing predicted range maps with tree fern presences and absences using an independent national dataset to validate the SDMs. We found that correcting for geographical sampling bias led to major improvements in goodness of fit, but did not entirely resolve the problem: predictions made with clustered ecological data were inferior to those made with the herbarium dataset, even after sampling bias correction. We also found that the choice of feature type had negligible effects on predictive performance, indicating that simple feature types may be sufficient once sampling bias is accounted for. Our study emphasizes the importance of reducing geographical sampling bias, where possible, in datasets used to train SDMs, and the effectiveness and essentialness of sampling bias correction within MaxEnt.
Predictive value of brain perfusion SPECT for rTMS response in pharmacoresistant depression
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Richieri, Raphaelle; Lancon, Christophe; Boyer, Laurent; Farisse, Jean; Colavolpe, Cecile; Mundler, Olivier; Guedj, Eric
2011-01-01
The aim of this study was to determine the predictive value of whole-brain voxel-based regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) for repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) response in patients with pharmacoresistant depression. Thirty-three right-handed patients who met DSM-IV criteria for major depressive disorder (unipolar or bipolar depression) were included before rTMS. rTMS response was defined as at least 50% reduction in the baseline Beck Depression Inventory scores. The predictive value of 99m Tc-ethyl cysteinate dimer (ECD) single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) for rTMS response was studied before treatment by comparing rTMS responders to non-responders at voxel level using Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) (p 0.10). In comparison to responders, non-responders showed significant hypoperfusions (p < 0.001, uncorrected) in the left medial and bilateral superior frontal cortices (BA10), the left uncus/parahippocampal cortex (BA20/BA35) and the right thalamus. The area under the curve for the combination of SPECT clusters to predict rTMS response was 0.89 (p < 0.001). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for the combination of clusters were: 94, 73, 81 and 92%, respectively. This study shows that, in pharmacoresistant depression, pretreatment rCBF of specific brain regions is a strong predictor for response to rTMS in patients with homogeneous demographic/clinical features. (orig.)
Guinnee, M A; Gemmill, A W; Chan, B H K; Viney, M E; Read, A F
2003-11-01
In theory, the age at which maturation occurs in parasitic nematodes is inversely related to pre-maturational mortality rate, and cross-species data on mammalian nematodes are consistent with this prediction. Immunity is a major source of parasite mortality and parasites stand to gain sizeable fitness benefits through short-term adjustments of maturation time in response to variation in immune-mediated mortality. The effects of thymus-dependent immune responses on maturation in the nematode parasites Strongyloides ratti and Nippostrongylus brasiliensis were investigated using congenitally thymus-deficient (nude) rats. As compared with worms in normal rats, reproductive maturity of parasites (presence of eggs in utero) in nude rats occurred later in S. ratti but earlier in N. brasiliensis. Immune-mediated differences in maturation time were not associated with differences in worm length. Thymus-dependent immunity had no effect on prematurational mortality. Results are discussed in relation to theoretical expectations and possible explanations for the observed patterns in parasite maturation.
Brockerhoff, Eckehard G; Kimberley, Mark; Liebhold, Andrew M; Haack, Robert A; Cavey, Joseph F
2014-03-01
Biological invasions resulting from international trade can cause major environmental and economic impacts. Propagule pressure is perhaps the most important factor influencing establishment, although actual arrival rates of species are rarely recorded. Furthermore, the pool of potential invaders includes many species that vary in their arrival rate and establishment potential. Therefore, we stress that it is essential to consider the size and composition of species pools arriving from source regions when estimating probabilities of establishment and effects of pathway infestation rates. To address this, we developed a novel framework and modeling approach to enable prediction of future establishments in relation to changes in arrival rate across entire species pools. We utilized 13 828 border interception records from the United States and New Zealand for 444 true bark beetle (Scolytinae) and longhorned beetle (Cerambycidae) species detected between 1949 and 2008 as proxies for arrival rates to model the relationship between arrival and establishment rates. Nonlinearity in this relationship implies that measures intended to reduce the unintended transport of potential invaders (such as phytosanitary treatments) must be highly effective in order to substantially reduce the rate of future invasions, particularly if trade volumes continue to increase.
Species-specific response-topography of chickens' and pigeons' water-induced autoshaped responding.
Ploog, Bertram O
2014-07-01
Four pigeons and eight chickens received autoshaping training where a keylight (conditioned stimulus) signaled response-independent deliveries of water (unconditioned stimulus). Pigeons drink while keeping their beaks submerged in water and moving their beaks to create suction ("mumbling"), whereas chickens drink by trapping a small amount of water in their mouths and then lifting their heads so the water trickles down. This experiment tested whether these and other species-specific differences in drinking and related behaviors of pigeons and chickens would be reflected in the form of conditioned (autoshaped) responding. Touchscreens and videotapes were used for data recording. Results showed that chickens moved their heads more than pigeons when drinking (unconditioned response). The birds also differed in conditioned responding in the presence of the keylight: Pigeons produced more keyswitch closures and mumbled at the keylight more than chickens whereas chickens scratched more than pigeons. In conclusion, with this unique comparative method that employed identical contingencies and comparable deprivation levels, species-specific differences in unconditioned responses and, more importantly, differences in their corresponding conditioned responses were observed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Duscher Tanja; Nopp-Mayr Ursula
2017-01-01
Species distribution models are important tools for wildlife management planning, particularly in the case of invasive species. We employed a recent framework for niche-based invasive species distribution modeling to predict the probability of presence for the invasive raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in Austria. The raccoon dog is an adaptive, mobile and highly reproductive Asiatic canid that has successfully invaded many parts of Europe. It is known...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. Khakzad
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Introduction: Summer annual weeds typically germinate in spring and early summer, grow throughout the summer, and set seeds by fall. Summer annual weeds are a persistent problem in summer annual row crops, competing directly for water, light, and nutrients, causing yield losses in quantity and quality. Although agriculture is increasingly relying on modern technology, knowledge of the biological systems in which these technologies are used is still critical for implementation of management strategies. Biological information about weeds is valuable and necessary for developing management strategies to minimize their impact. Scouting fields for pest problems are essential in any cropping system and knowledge of the timing and sequence of weed species emergence could increase the effectiveness of weed scouting trips and subsequent management practices. The success of any annual plant is directly correlated to its time of seedling emergence because it determines the ability of a plant to compete with its neighbors, survive biotic and abiotic stresses, and reproduce. The period and pattern of emergence of the weed community depend on the species present in the seed bank and their interaction with the environment. Therefore, knowledge of the weed species present in the soil seed bank and when these species are most likely to emerge is important in planning effective weed control programs. Temperature has been reported to be the main environmental factor regulating germination and emergence of weed species. Scientists have developed TT models to predict the emergence of weed species based on a daily accumulation of heat units or growing degree days (GDD above a minimum base threshold value (Tbase. The predictive models for weed emergence based on the accumulation of TT appear to be accurate enough for projections of weed emergence time (Grundy 2003. Moreover, soil temperature data are easily accessible, making this type of model practical and useful to
Predicting soil acidification trends at Plynlimon using the SAFE model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. Reynolds
1997-01-01
Full Text Available The SAFE model has been applied to an acid grassland site, located on base-poor stagnopodzol soils derived from Lower Palaeozoic greywackes. The model predicts that acidification of the soil has occurred in response to increased acid deposition following the industrial revolution. Limited recovery is predicted following the decline in sulphur deposition during the mid to late 1970s. Reducing excess sulphur and NOx deposition in 1998 to 40% and 70% of 1980 levels results in further recovery but soil chemical conditions (base saturation, soil water pH and ANC do not return to values predicted in pre-industrial times. The SAFE model predicts that critical loads (expressed in terms of the (Ca+Mg+K:Alcrit ratio for six vegetation species found in acid grassland communities are not exceeded despite the increase in deposited acidity following the industrial revolution. The relative growth response of selected vegetation species characteristic of acid grassland swards has been predicted using a damage function linking growth to soil solution base cation to aluminium ratio. The results show that very small growth reductions can be expected for 'acid tolerant' plants growing in acid upland soils. For more sensitive species such as Holcus lanatus, SAFE predicts that growth would have been reduced by about 20% between 1951 and 1983, when acid inputs were greatest. Recovery to c. 90% of normal growth (under laboratory conditions is predicted as acidic inputs decline.
DISIS: prediction of drug response through an iterative sure independence screening.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yun Fang
Full Text Available Prediction of drug response based on genomic alterations is an important task in the research of personalized medicine. Current elastic net model utilized a sure independence screening to select relevant genomic features with drug response, but it may neglect the combination effect of some marginally weak features. In this work, we applied an iterative sure independence screening scheme to select drug response relevant features from the Cancer Cell Line Encyclopedia (CCLE dataset. For each drug in CCLE, we selected up to 40 features including gene expressions, mutation and copy number alterations of cancer-related genes, and some of them are significantly strong features but showing weak marginal correlation with drug response vector. Lasso regression based on the selected features showed that our prediction accuracies are higher than those by elastic net regression for most drugs.
Snedden, Gregg A.; Steyer, Gregory D.
2013-02-01
Understanding plant community zonation along estuarine stress gradients is critical for effective conservation and restoration of coastal wetland ecosystems. We related the presence of plant community types to estuarine hydrology at 173 sites across coastal Louisiana. Percent relative cover by species was assessed at each site near the end of the growing season in 2008, and hourly water level and salinity were recorded at each site Oct 2007-Sep 2008. Nine plant community types were delineated with k-means clustering, and indicator species were identified for each of the community types with indicator species analysis. An inverse relation between salinity and species diversity was observed. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) effectively segregated the sites across ordination space by community type, and indicated that salinity and tidal amplitude were both important drivers of vegetation composition. Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) were used to predict the probability of occurrence of the nine vegetation communities as a function of salinity and tidal amplitude, and probability surfaces obtained from the MLR model corroborated the CCA results. The weighted kappa statistic, calculated from the confusion matrix of predicted versus actual community types, was 0.7 and indicated good agreement between observed community types and model predictions. Our results suggest that models based on a few key hydrologic variables can be valuable tools for predicting vegetation community development when restoring and managing coastal wetlands.
Comparative responses of two species of marine phytoplankton to metolachlor exposure
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thakkar, Megha; Randhawa, Varunpreet; Wei Liping
2013-01-01
Metolachlor, a chloroacetanilide herbicide, has been frequently detected in coastal waters. This study examined the growth, photosynthesis, and detoxification responses of chlorophyte Dunaliella tertiolecta (DT) and brown tide alga Aureococcus anophagefferens (AA) upon 5-day exposure to 0.5–5 mg L −1 metolachlor. Growth was assessed with exponential growth rate, and 5th day in vivo chlorophyll fluorescence, chlorophyll a, b or c, cell density and cell size. The photosynthesis function was assessed with photochemical parameters of photosystem II (PSII) during the mid-exponential growth phase (i.e. 2–4 day metolachlor exposure). The biochemical detoxification was analyzed with glutathione production and metolachlor degradation. Results show that metolachlor caused up to ∼9% inhibition in growth rate in both species and an expected ∼35% and 25% inhibition in chlorophyll based endpoints in DT and AA respectively. DT had an up to 70% inhibition in cell density, but AA a 35% hormesis at 1 mg L −1 metolachlor and no significant inhibition, as compared to the controls. Both DT and AA's cell sizes were enlarged by metolachlor exposure, but greater in DT (1.2% per mg L −1 ) than in AA (0.68% per mg L −1 ). On PSII photochemistry, maximum quantum yield was not affected in both species; PSII optical cross section and connectivity factor increased in DT but decreased in AA, suggesting species specific impact on PSII function. On detoxification responses, glutathione production, when normalized to total chlorophyll a, was not affected by metolachlor in both species; further, despite of heterotrophic capacity of A. anophagefferens metolachlor was not significantly degraded by this alga during the 5-day incubation. The species specific effects on algal growth have ecological implications of potential selective inhibition of chlorophytes by metolachlor herbicide.
On the best learning algorithm for web services response time prediction
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Popentiu-Vladicescu, Florin
2013-01-01
In this article we will examine the effect of different learning algorithms, while training the MLP (Multilayer Perceptron) with the intention of predicting web services response time. Web services do not necessitate a user interface. This may seem contradictory to most people's concept of what...... an application is. A Web service is better imagined as an application "segment," or better as a program enabler. Performance is an important quality aspect of Web services because of their distributed nature. Predicting the response of web services during their operation is very important....
Climate modelling, uncertainty and responses to predictions of change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Henderson-Sellers, A.
1996-01-01
Article 4.1(F) of the Framework Convention on Climate Change commits all parties to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions and to employ methods such as impact assessments to minimize adverse effects of climate change. This could be achieved by, inter alia, incorporating climate change risk assessment into development planning processes, i.e. relating climatic change to issues of habitability and sustainability. Adaptation is an ubiquitous and beneficial natural and human strategy. Future adaptation (adjustment) to climate is inevitable at the least to decrease the vulnerability to current climatic impacts. An urgent issue is the mismatch between the predictions of global climatic change and the need for information on local to regional change in order to develop adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts are essential since the more successful mitigation activities are, the less need there will be for adaptation responses. And, mitigation responses can be global (e.g. a uniform percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) while adaptation responses will be local to regional in character and therefore depend upon confident predictions of regional climatic change. The dilemma facing policymakers is that scientists have considerable confidence in likely global climatic changes but virtually zero confidence in regional changes. Mitigation and adaptation strategies relevant to climatic change can most usefully be developed in the context of sound understanding of climate, especially the near-surface continental climate, permitting discussion of societally relevant issues. But, climate models can't yet deliver this type of regionally and locationally specific prediction and some aspects of current research even seem to indicate increased uncertainty. These topics are explored in this paper using the specific example of the prediction of land-surface climate changes
Can quantitative sensory testing predict responses to analgesic treatment?
Grosen, K; Fischer, I W D; Olesen, A E; Drewes, A M
2013-10-01
The role of quantitative sensory testing (QST) in prediction of analgesic effect in humans is scarcely investigated. This updated review assesses the effectiveness in predicting analgesic effects in healthy volunteers, surgical patients and patients with chronic pain. A systematic review of English written, peer-reviewed articles was conducted using PubMed and Embase (1980-2013). Additional studies were identified by chain searching. Search terms included 'quantitative sensory testing', 'sensory testing' and 'analgesics'. Studies on the relationship between QST and response to analgesic treatment in human adults were included. Appraisal of the methodological quality of the included studies was based on evaluative criteria for prognostic studies. Fourteen studies (including 720 individuals) met the inclusion criteria. Significant correlations were observed between responses to analgesics and several QST parameters including (1) heat pain threshold in experimental human pain, (2) electrical and heat pain thresholds, pressure pain tolerance and suprathreshold heat pain in surgical patients, and (3) electrical and heat pain threshold and conditioned pain modulation in patients with chronic pain. Heterogeneity among studies was observed especially with regard to application of QST and type and use of analgesics. Although promising, the current evidence is not sufficiently robust to recommend the use of any specific QST parameter in predicting analgesic response. Future studies should focus on a range of different experimental pain modalities rather than a single static pain stimulation paradigm. © 2013 European Federation of International Association for the Study of Pain Chapters.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ohnuki, Toshihiko; Takebe, Shinichi; Yamamoto, Tadatoshi
1989-01-01
The migration prediction system (MIGSTEM) has been developed for estimating the migration of cationic species of radionuclides through soil layers systematically. The MIGSTEM consists of the migration experiments, the one-dimensional fitting code (inverse analysis code) for determining retardation factor and dispersivity (migration factors) and the three-dimensional differential code (prediction code) for estimating the migration of the radionuclides. The migration experiments are carried out for obtaining the concentration profiles of the radionuclides in unsaturated and saturated soil layers. Using the inverse analysis code, the migration factors are obtained at one time by fitting the concentration profiles calculated to those observed. The prediction code can give the contours of concentration and the one-dimensional concentration profiles at selected time, as well as the changing in the concentration at a selected position with time. The validity of the MIGSTEM was obtained by the benchmark test on the prediction and inverse analysis codes. The MIGSTEM was applied to estimate the migration of Sr 2+ through the sandy soil. (author)
Response of transpiration to rain pulses for two tree species in a semiarid plantation
Chen, Lixin; Zhang, Zhiqiang; Zeppel, Melanie; Liu, Caifeng; Guo, Junting; Zhu, Jinzhao; Zhang, Xuepei; Zhang, Jianjun; Zha, Tonggang
2014-09-01
Responses of transpiration ( E c) to rain pulses are presented for two semiarid tree species in a stand of Pinus tabulaeformis and Robinia pseudoacacia. Our objectives are to investigate (1) the environmental control over the stand transpiration after rainfall by analyzing the effect of vapor pressure deficit (VPD), soil water condition, and rainfall on the post-rainfall E c development and recovery rate, and (2) the species responses to rain pulses and implications on vegetation coverage under a changing rainfall regime. Results showed that the sensitivity of canopy conductance ( G c) to VPD varied under different incident radiation and soil water conditions, and the two species exhibited the same hydraulic control (-d G c/dlnVPD to G cref ratio) over transpiration. Strengthened physiological control and low sapwood area of the stand contributed to low E c. VPD after rainfall significantly influenced the magnitude and time series of post-rainfall stand E c. The fluctuation of post-rainfall VPD in comparison with the pre-rainfall influenced the E c recovery. Further, the stand E c was significantly related to monthly rainfall, but the recovery was independent of the rainfall event size. E c enhanced with cumulative soil moisture change (ΔVWC) within each dry-wet cycle, yet still was limited in large rainfall months. The two species had different response patterns of post-rainfall E c recovery. E c recovery of P. tabulaeformis was influenced by the pre- and post-rainfall VPD differences and the duration of rainless interval. R. pseudoacacia showed a larger immediate post-rainfall E c increase than P. tabulaeformis did. We, therefore, concluded that concentrated rainfall events do not trigger significant increase of transpiration unless large events penetrate the deep soil and the species differences of E c in response to pulses of rain may shape the composition of semiarid woodlands under future rainfall regimes.
Prepotent response inhibition predicts treatment outcome in attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder
van der Oord, S.; Geurts, H.M.; Prins, P.J.M.; Emmelkamp, P.M.G.; Oosterlaan, J.
2012-01-01
Objective: Inhibition deficits, including deficits in prepotent response inhibition and interference control, are core deficits in ADHD. The predictive value of prepotent response inhibition and interference control was assessed for outcome in a 10-week treatment trial with methylphenidate. Methods:
Aggarwal, Yogender; Karan, Bhuwan Mohan; Das, Barsa Nand; Sinha, Rakesh Kumar
2008-04-01
The thermoregulatory control of human skin blood flow is vital to maintain the body heat storage during challenges of thermal homeostasis under heat stress. Whenever thermal homeostasis disturbed, the heat load exceeds heat dissipation capacity, which alters the cutaneous vascular responses along with other body physiological variables. Whole body skin blood flow has been calculated from the forearm blood flow. Present model has been designed using electronics circuit simulator (Multisim 8.0, National Instruments, USA), is to execute a series of predictive equations for early prediction of physiological parameters of young nude subjects during resting condition at various level of dry heat stress under almost still air to avoid causalities associated with hot environmental. The users can execute the model by changing the environmental temperature in degrees C and exposure time in minutes. The model would be able to predict and detect the changes in human vascular responses along with other physiological parameters and from this predicted values heat related-illness symptoms can be inferred.
Zhang, Xinyan; Li, Bingzong; Han, Huiying; Song, Sha; Xu, Hongxia; Hong, Yating; Yi, Nengjun; Zhuang, Wenzhuo
2018-05-10
Multiple myeloma (MM), like other cancers, is caused by the accumulation of genetic abnormalities. Heterogeneity exists in the patients' response to treatments, for example, bortezomib. This urges efforts to identify biomarkers from numerous molecular features and build predictive models for identifying patients that can benefit from a certain treatment scheme. However, previous studies treated the multi-level ordinal drug response as a binary response where only responsive and non-responsive groups are considered. It is desirable to directly analyze the multi-level drug response, rather than combining the response to two groups. In this study, we present a novel method to identify significantly associated biomarkers and then develop ordinal genomic classifier using the hierarchical ordinal logistic model. The proposed hierarchical ordinal logistic model employs the heavy-tailed Cauchy prior on the coefficients and is fitted by an efficient quasi-Newton algorithm. We apply our hierarchical ordinal regression approach to analyze two publicly available datasets for MM with five-level drug response and numerous gene expression measures. Our results show that our method is able to identify genes associated with the multi-level drug response and to generate powerful predictive models for predicting the multi-level response. The proposed method allows us to jointly fit numerous correlated predictors and thus build efficient models for predicting the multi-level drug response. The predictive model for the multi-level drug response can be more informative than the previous approaches. Thus, the proposed approach provides a powerful tool for predicting multi-level drug response and has important impact on cancer studies.
Marques, Ana; Piló , David; Araú jo, Olinda; Pereira, Fá bio; Guilherme, Sofia; Carvalho, Susana; Santos, Maria Ana; Pacheco, Má rio; Pereira, Patrí cia
2016-01-01
and antioxidant system responses of two benthic organisms (Cerastoderma edule, Bivalvia; Nephtys hombergii, Polychaeta). This approach will provide clarifications about the ability of each species to signalise metal contamination. Organisms of both species were
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents seabird species richness, or number of species, predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area....
A new constitutive model for prediction of impact rates response of polypropylene
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Buckley C.P.
2012-08-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a new constitutive model for predicting the impact rates response of polypropylene. Impact rates, as used here, refer to strain rates greater than 1000 1/s. The model is a physically based, three-dimensional constitutive model which incorporates the contributions of the amorphous, crystalline, pseudo-amorphous and entanglement networks to the constitutive response of polypropylene. The model mathematics is based on the well-known Glass-Rubber model originally developed for glassy polymers but the arguments have herein been extended to semi-crystalline polymers. In order to predict the impact rates behaviour of polypropylene, the model exploits the well-known framework of multiple processes yielding of polymers. This work argues that two dominant viscoelastic relaxation processes – the alpha- and beta-processes – can be associated with the yield responses of polypropylene observed at low-rate-dominant and impact-rates dominant loading regimes. Compression test data on polypropylene have been used to validate the model. The study has found that the model predicts quite well the experimentally observed nonlinear rate-dependent impact response of polypropylene.
Consumer factors predicting level of treatment response to illness management and recovery.
White, Dominique A; McGuire, Alan B; Luther, Lauren; Anderson, Adrienne I; Phalen, Peter; McGrew, John H
2017-12-01
This study aims to identify consumer-level predictors of level of treatment response to illness management and recovery (IMR) to target the appropriate consumers and aid psychiatric rehabilitation settings in developing intervention adaptations. Secondary analyses from a multisite study of IMR were conducted. Self-report data from consumer participants of the parent study (n = 236) were analyzed for the current study. Consumers completed prepost surveys assessing illness management, coping, goal-related hope, social support, medication adherence, and working alliance. Correlations and multiple regression analyses were run to identify self-report variables that predicted level of treatment response to IMR. Analyses revealed that goal-related hope significantly predicted level of improved illness self-management, F(1, 164) = 10.93, p consumer-level predictors of level of treatment response have not been explored for IMR. Although 2 significant predictors were identified, study findings suggest more work is needed. Future research is needed to identify additional consumer-level factors predictive of IMR treatment response in order to identify who would benefit most from this treatment program. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
On-Line, Self-Learning, Predictive Tool for Determining Payload Thermal Response
Jen, Chian-Li; Tilwick, Leon
2000-01-01
This paper will present the results of a joint ManTech / Goddard R&D effort, currently under way, to develop and test a computer based, on-line, predictive simulation model for use by facility operators to predict the thermal response of a payload during thermal vacuum testing. Thermal response was identified as an area that could benefit from the algorithms developed by Dr. Jeri for complex computer simulations. Most thermal vacuum test setups are unique since no two payloads have the same thermal properties. This requires that the operators depend on their past experiences to conduct the test which requires time for them to learn how the payload responds while at the same time limiting any risk of exceeding hot or cold temperature limits. The predictive tool being developed is intended to be used with the new Thermal Vacuum Data System (TVDS) developed at Goddard for the Thermal Vacuum Test Operations group. This model can learn the thermal response of the payload by reading a few data points from the TVDS, accepting the payload's current temperature as the initial condition for prediction. The model can then be used as a predictive tool to estimate the future payload temperatures according to a predetermined shroud temperature profile. If the error of prediction is too big, the model can be asked to re-learn the new situation on-line in real-time and give a new prediction. Based on some preliminary tests, we feel this predictive model can forecast the payload temperature of the entire test cycle within 5 degrees Celsius after it has learned 3 times during the beginning of the test. The tool will allow the operator to play "what-if' experiments to decide what is his best shroud temperature set-point control strategy. This tool will save money by minimizing guess work and optimizing transitions as well as making the testing process safer and easier to conduct.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Emeline Deleury
Full Text Available Our present understanding of the functioning and evolutionary history of invertebrate innate immunity derives mostly from studies on a few model species belonging to ecdysozoa. In particular, the characterization of signaling pathways dedicated to specific responses towards fungi and Gram-positive or Gram-negative bacteria in Drosophila melanogaster challenged our original view of a non-specific immunity in invertebrates. However, much remains to be elucidated from lophotrochozoan species. To investigate the global specificity of the immune response in the fresh-water snail Biomphalaria glabrata, we used massive Illumina sequencing of 5'-end cDNAs to compare expression profiles after challenge by Gram-positive or Gram-negative bacteria or after a yeast challenge. 5'-end cDNA sequencing of the libraries yielded over 12 millions high quality reads. To link these short reads to expressed genes, we prepared a reference transcriptomic database through automatic assembly and annotation of the 758,510 redundant sequences (ESTs, mRNAs of B. glabrata available in public databases. Computational analysis of Illumina reads followed by multivariate analyses allowed identification of 1685 candidate transcripts differentially expressed after an immune challenge, with a two fold ratio between transcripts showing a challenge-specific expression versus a lower or non-specific differential expression. Differential expression has been validated using quantitative PCR for a subset of randomly selected candidates. Predicted functions of annotated candidates (approx. 700 unisequences belonged to a large extend to similar functional categories or protein types. This work significantly expands upon previous gene discovery and expression studies on B. glabrata and suggests that responses to various pathogens may involve similar immune processes or signaling pathways but different genes belonging to multigenic families. These results raise the question of the importance
Angiotensinogen and HLA class II predict bevacizumab response in recurrent glioblastoma patients
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Urup, Thomas; Michaelsen, Signe Regner; Olsen, Lars Rønn
2016-01-01
Background: Bevacizumab combination therapy is among the most frequently used treatments in recurrent glioblastoma and patients who achieve response to bevacizumab have improved survival as well as quality of life. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to identify predictive biomarkers for bevac......Background: Bevacizumab combination therapy is among the most frequently used treatments in recurrent glioblastoma and patients who achieve response to bevacizumab have improved survival as well as quality of life. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to identify predictive biomarkers...... for bevacizumab response in recurrent glioblastoma patients. Methods: The study included a total of 82 recurrent glioblastoma patients treated with bevacizumab combination therapy whom were both response and biomarker evaluable. Gene expression of tumor tissue was analyzed by using a customized Nano...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stanton-Geddes, John; Nguyen, Andrew; Chick, Lacy
2016-01-01
across an experimental gradient. We characterized thermal reactionomes of two common ant species in the eastern U.S, the northern cool-climate Aphaenogaster picea and the southern warm-climate Aphaenogaster carolinensis, across 12 temperatures that spanned their entire thermal breadth.......The distributions of species and their responses to climate change are in part determined by their thermal tolerances. However, little is known about how thermal tolerance evolves. To test whether evolutionary extension of thermal limits is accomplished through enhanced cellular stress response...
Attachment predicts cortisol response and closeness in dyadic social interaction.
Ketay, Sarah; Beck, Lindsey A
2017-06-01
The present study examined how the interplay of partners' attachment styles influences cortisol response, actual closeness, and desired closeness during friendship initiation. Participants provided salivary cortisol samples at four timepoints throughout either a high or low closeness task that facilitated high or low levels of self-disclosure with a potential friend (i.e., another same-sex participant). Levels of actual closeness and desired closeness following the task were measured via inclusion of other in the self. Results from multi-level modeling indicated that the interaction of both participants' attachment avoidance predicted cortisol response patterns, with participants showing the highest cortisol response when there was a mismatch between their own and their partners' attachment avoidance. Further, the interaction between both participants' attachment anxiety predicted actual closeness and desired closeness, with participants both feeling and wanting the most closeness with partners when both they and their partners were low in attachment anxiety. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Conservation of the response regulator gene gacA in Pseudomonas species
Souza, J.T.; Mazzola, M.; Raaijmakers, J.M.
2003-01-01
The response regulator gene gacA influences the production of several secondary metabolites in both pathogenic and beneficial Pseudomonas spp. In this study, we developed primers and a probe for the gacA gene of Pseudomonas species and sequenced a 425 bp fragment of gacA from ten Pseudomonas strains
Predicting responsiveness to intervention in dyslexia using dynamic assessment
Aravena, S.; Tijms, J.; Snellings, P.; van der Molen, M.W.
In the current study we examined the value of a dynamic test for predicting responsiveness to reading intervention for children diagnosedwith dyslexia. The test consisted of a 20-minute training aimed at learning eight basic letter–speech sound correspondences within an artificial orthography,
Snedden, Gregg A.; Steyer, Gregory D.
2013-01-01
Understanding plant community zonation along estuarine stress gradients is critical for effective conservation and restoration of coastal wetland ecosystems. We related the presence of plant community types to estuarine hydrology at 173 sites across coastal Louisiana. Percent relative cover by species was assessed at each site near the end of the growing season in 2008, and hourly water level and salinity were recorded at each site Oct 2007–Sep 2008. Nine plant community types were delineated with k-means clustering, and indicator species were identified for each of the community types with indicator species analysis. An inverse relation between salinity and species diversity was observed. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) effectively segregated the sites across ordination space by community type, and indicated that salinity and tidal amplitude were both important drivers of vegetation composition. Multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) were used to predict the probability of occurrence of the nine vegetation communities as a function of salinity and tidal amplitude, and probability surfaces obtained from the MLR model corroborated the CCA results. The weighted kappa statistic, calculated from the confusion matrix of predicted versus actual community types, was 0.7 and indicated good agreement between observed community types and model predictions. Our results suggest that models based on a few key hydrologic variables can be valuable tools for predicting vegetation community development when restoring and managing coastal wetlands.
Jorgensen, Christopher F.; Powell, Larkin A.; Lusk, Jeffrey J.; Bishop, Andrew A.; Fontaine, Joseph J.
2014-01-01
Landscapes in agricultural systems continue to undergo significant change, and the loss of biodiversity is an ever-increasing threat. Although habitat restoration is beneficial, management actions do not always result in the desired outcome. Managers must understand why management actions fail; yet, past studies have focused on assessing habitat attributes at a single spatial scale, and often fail to consider the importance of ecological mechanisms that act across spatial scales. We located survey sites across southern Nebraska, USA and conducted point counts to estimate Ring-necked Pheasant abundance, an economically important species to the region, while simultaneously quantifying landscape effects using a geographic information system. To identify suitable areas for allocating limited management resources, we assessed land cover relationships to our counts using a Bayesian binomial-Poisson hierarchical model to construct predictive Species Distribution Models of relative abundance. Our results indicated that landscape scale land cover variables severely constrained or, alternatively, facilitated the positive effects of local land management for Ring-necked Pheasants.
Response of seedlings of different tree species to elevated C02 in Changbai Mountain
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
DAILi-min; JILan-zhu; WANGMiao; LIQiu-rong
2003-01-01
Eco-physiological responses of seedlings of eight species, Pinus koraiensis, Picea koraiensis, Lanx olgensis,Populus ussuriensis, Betula platyphylla, Tilia amurensis, Traxinus mandshurica and Acer mono from broadleaved/Korean pine forest, to elevated CO2 were studied by using open-top chambers under natural sunlight in Changbai Mountain, China in two growing seasons (1998-1999). Two concentrations of CO2 were designed: elevated CO2 (700 pmol· mol-1) and ambient CO2 (400μmol· mol-1). The study results showed that the height growth of the tree seedlings grown at elevated CO2 increased by about 10%-40% compared to those grown at ambient CO2. And the water using efficiency of seedlings also followed the same tendency. However, the responses of seedlings in transpiration and chlorophyll content to elevated CO2 varied with tree species.The broad-leaf tree species were more sensitive to the elevated CO2than conifer tree species. All seedlings showed a photo-synthetic acclimation to Iong-term elevated CO2.
González-Muñoz, N.; Linares, J.C.; Castro-Díez, P.; Sass-Klaassen, U.G.W.
2014-01-01
The climatic conditions predicted for the twenty-first century may aggravate the extent and impacts of plant invasions, by favouring those invaders more adapted to altered conditions or by hampering the native flora. We aim to predict the fate of native and invasive tree species in the oak forests
Zhu, Lingyu; Ji, Shengchang; Shen, Qi; Liu, Yuan; Li, Jinyu; Liu, Hao
2013-01-01
The capacitors in high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) converter stations radiate a lot of audible noise which can reach higher than 100 dB. The existing noise level prediction methods are not satisfying enough. In this paper, a new noise level prediction method is proposed based on a frequency response function considering both electrical and mechanical characteristics of capacitors. The electro-mechanical frequency response function (EMFRF) is defined as the frequency domain quotient of the vibration response and the squared capacitor voltage, and it is obtained from impulse current experiment. Under given excitations, the vibration response of the capacitor tank is the product of EMFRF and the square of the given capacitor voltage in frequency domain, and the radiated audible noise is calculated by structure acoustic coupling formulas. The noise level under the same excitations is also measured in laboratory, and the results are compared with the prediction. The comparison proves that the noise prediction method is effective.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Irene Moy
Full Text Available Aromatase inhibitors (AIs are the most effective class of drugs in the endocrine treatment of breast cancer, with an approximate 50% treatment response rate. Our objective was to determine whether intratumoral expression levels of estrogen-related genes are predictive of AI responsiveness in postmenopausal women with breast cancer. Primary breast carcinomas were obtained from 112 women who received AI therapy after failing adjuvant tamoxifen therapy and developing recurrent breast cancer. Tumor ERα and PR protein expression were analyzed by immunohistochemistry (IHC. Messenger RNA (mRNA levels of 5 estrogen-related genes-AKR1C3, aromatase, ERα, and 2 estradiol/ERα target genes, BRCA1 and PR-were measured by real-time PCR. Tumor protein and mRNA levels were compared with breast cancer progression rates to determine predictive accuracy. Responsiveness to AI therapy-defined as the combined complete response, partial response, and stable disease rates for at least 6 months-was 51%; rates were 56% in ERα-IHC-positive and 14% in ERα-IHC-negative tumors. Levels of ERα, PR, or BRCA1 mRNA were independently predictive for responsiveness to AI. In cross-validated analyses, a combined measurement of tumor ERα and PR mRNA levels yielded a more superior specificity (36% and identical sensitivity (96% to the current clinical practice (ERα/PR-IHC. In patients with ERα/PR-IHC-negative tumors, analysis of mRNA expression revealed either non-significant trends or statistically significant positive predictive values for AI responsiveness. In conclusion, expression levels of estrogen-related mRNAs are predictive for AI responsiveness in postmenopausal women with breast cancer, and mRNA expression analysis may improve patient selection.
Megna, Yoandri S; Sánchez-Fernández, David
2014-01-10
A new species, Desmopachria andreae sp. n. is described from Cuba. Diagnostic characters including illustrations of male genitalia are provided and illustrated for the five species of the genus occurring on the island. For these five species both a simple key to adults and maps of their known distribution in Cuba are also provided. Using a Maximun Entropy method (MaxEnt), a distribution model was developed for D. andreae sp.n. Based on the model's predictions, this species has a higher probability of occurring in high altitude forests (above 1000 m a.s.l.), characterised by relatively low temperatures especially during the hottest and wettest seasons, specifically, the mountainous areas of the Macizo de Guamuhaya (Central Cuba), Sierra Maestra (S Cuba) and Nipe-Sagua-Baracoa (NE Cuba). In some of these areas the species has not yet been recorded, and should be searched for in future field surveys.
Transcription-based prediction of response to IFNbeta using supervised computational methods.
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Sergio E Baranzini
2005-01-01
Full Text Available Changes in cellular functions in response to drug therapy are mediated by specific transcriptional profiles resulting from the induction or repression in the activity of a number of genes, thereby modifying the preexisting gene activity pattern of the drug-targeted cell(s. Recombinant human interferon beta (rIFNbeta is routinely used to control exacerbations in multiple sclerosis patients with only partial success, mainly because of adverse effects and a relatively large proportion of nonresponders. We applied advanced data-mining and predictive modeling tools to a longitudinal 70-gene expression dataset generated by kinetic reverse-transcription PCR from 52 multiple sclerosis patients treated with rIFNbeta to discover higher-order predictive patterns associated with treatment outcome and to define the molecular footprint that rIFNbeta engraves on peripheral blood mononuclear cells. We identified nine sets of gene triplets whose expression, when tested before the initiation of therapy, can predict the response to interferon beta with up to 86% accuracy. In addition, time-series analysis revealed potential key players involved in a good or poor response to interferon beta. Statistical testing of a random outcome class and tolerance to noise was carried out to establish the robustness of the predictive models. Large-scale kinetic reverse-transcription PCR, coupled with advanced data-mining efforts, can effectively reveal preexisting and drug-induced gene expression signatures associated with therapeutic effects.
Deng, Shihuai; Gou, Shuzhen; Sun, Baiye; Lv, Wenlin; Li, Yuanwei; Peng, Hong; Xiao, Hong; Yang, Gang; Wang, Yingjun
2012-08-01
This study investigated the sensitivity of plant species to acid rain based on the modeled dosage-response relationship on the net photosynthetic rate (P (N)) of 21 types of plant species, subjected to the exposure of simulated acid rain (SAR) for 5 times during a period of 50 days. Variable responses of P (N) to SAR occurred depending on the type of plant. A majority (13 species) of the dosage-response relationship could be described by an S-shaped curve and be fitted with the Boltzmann model. Model fitting allowed quantitative evaluation of the dosage-response relationship and an accurate estimation of the EC(10), termed as the pH of the acid rain resulting in a P (N) 10 % lower than the reference value. The top 9 species (Camellia sasanqua, Cinnamomum camphora, etc. EC(10) ≤ 3.0) are highly endurable to very acid rain. The rare, relict plant Metasequoia glyptostroboides was the most sensitive species (EC(10) = 5.1) recommended for protection.
Climate Responses in Growth and Wood Anatomy of Imoprtant Forest Tree Species in Denmark
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Huang, Weiwei
and high temperatures on the development of Danish tree species are scarcely investigated. Through a dendroecological approach this dissertation assessed the growth responses related to increment, xylem anatomy and wood property of eight different important tree species, namely Picea abies (L.) Karst......., Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr., Abies alba Mill., Abies grandis (Dougl.) Lindl., Pseudotsuga mensiesii (Mirb.) Franco, Larix kaempferi (Lamb.) Carr., Quercus robur L. and Fagus sylvatica L., to long-term drought and high temperatures, aiming at identifying a species portfolio matching future climate...... intolerant species, mainly due to their low drought tolerance (both species) and susceptibility to high autumn temperature (only P. abies). Overall, this dissertation improves the understanding of how drought and high temperatures have impacted and will influence the growth of tree species in Danish forest...
Yoo, Byong Chul; Yeo, Seung-Gu
2017-03-01
Approximately 20% of all patients with locally advanced rectal cancer experience pathologically complete responses following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and standard surgery. The utility of radical surgery for patients exhibiting good CRT responses has been challenged. Organ-sparing strategies for selected patients exhibiting complete clinical responses include local excision or no immediate surgery. The subjects of this tailored management are patients whose presenting disease corresponds to current indications of neoadjuvant CRT, and their post-CRT tumor response is assessed by clinical and radiological examinations. However, a model predictive of the CRT response, applied before any treatment commenced, would be valuable to facilitate such a personalized approach. This would increase organ preservation, particularly in patients for whom upfront CRT is not generally prescribed. Molecular biomarkers hold the greatest promise for development of a pretreatment predictive model of CRT response. A combination of clinicopathological, radiological, and molecular markers will be necessary to render the model robust. Molecular research will also contribute to the development of drugs that can overcome the radioresistance of rectal tumors. Current treatments for rectal cancer are based on the expected prognosis given the presenting disease extent. In the future, treatment schemes may be modified by including the predicted CRT response evaluated at presentation.
Can species-specific prey responses to chemical cues explain prey susceptibility to predation?
Šmejkal, Marek; Ricard, Daniel; Sajdlová, Zuzana; Čech, Martin; Vejřík, Lukáš; Blabolil, Petr; Vejříková, Ivana; Prchalová, Marie; Vašek, Mojmír; Souza, Allan T; Brönmark, Christer; Peterka, Jiří
2018-05-01
The perception of danger represents an essential ability of prey for gaining an informational advantage over their natural enemies. Especially in complex environments or at night, animals strongly rely on chemoreception to avoid predators. The ability to recognize danger by chemical cues and subsequent adaptive responses to predation threats should generally increase prey survival. Recent findings suggest that European catfish ( Silurus glanis ) introduction induce changes in fish community and we tested whether the direction of change can be attributed to differences in chemical cue perception. We tested behavioral response to chemical cues using three species of freshwater fish common in European water: rudd ( Scardinius erythrophthalmus ), roach ( Rutilus rutilus ), and perch ( Perca fluviatilis ). Further, we conducted a prey selectivity experiment to evaluate the prey preferences of the European catfish. Roach exhibited the strongest reaction to chemical cues, rudd decreased use of refuge and perch did not alter any behavior in the experiment. These findings suggest that chemical cue perception might be behind community data change and we encourage collecting more community data of tested prey species before and after European catfish introduction to test the hypothesis. We conclude that used prey species can be used as a model species to verify whether chemical cue perception enhances prey survival.
Dijkstra, J; Kebreab, E; Mills, J A N; Pellikaan, W F; López, S; Bannink, A; France, J
2007-02-01
Current feed evaluation systems for dairy cattle aim to match nutrient requirements with nutrient intake at pre-defined production levels. These systems were not developed to address, and are not suitable to predict, the responses to dietary changes in terms of production level and product composition, excretion of nutrients to the environment, and nutrition related disorders. The change from a requirement to a response system to meet the needs of various stakeholders requires prediction of the profile of absorbed nutrients and its subsequent utilisation for various purposes. This contribution examines the challenges to predicting the profile of nutrients available for absorption in dairy cattle and provides guidelines for further improved prediction with regard to animal production responses and environmental pollution.The profile of nutrients available for absorption comprises volatile fatty acids, long-chain fatty acids, amino acids and glucose. Thus the importance of processes in the reticulo-rumen is obvious. Much research into rumen fermentation is aimed at determination of substrate degradation rates. Quantitative knowledge on rates of passage of nutrients out of the rumen is rather limited compared with that on degradation rates, and thus should be an important theme in future research. Current systems largely ignore microbial metabolic variation, and extant mechanistic models of rumen fermentation give only limited attention to explicit representation of microbial metabolic activity. Recent molecular techniques indicate that knowledge on the presence and activity of various microbial species is far from complete. Such techniques may give a wealth of information, but to include such findings in systems predicting the nutrient profile requires close collaboration between molecular scientists and mathematical modellers on interpreting and evaluating quantitative data. Protozoal metabolism is of particular interest here given the paucity of quantitative data
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A Michelle Lawing
Full Text Available Mean annual temperature reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change increases at least 1.1°C to 6.4°C over the next 90 years. In context, a change in climate of 6°C is approximately the difference between the mean annual temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and our current warm interglacial. Species have been responding to changing climate throughout Earth's history and their previous biological responses can inform our expectations for future climate change. Here we synthesize geological evidence in the form of stable oxygen isotopes, general circulation paleoclimate models, species' evolutionary relatedness, and species' geographic distributions. We use the stable oxygen isotope record to develop a series of temporally high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions spanning the Middle Pleistocene to Recent, which we use to map ancestral climatic envelope reconstructions for North American rattlesnakes. A simple linear interpolation between current climate and a general circulation paleoclimate model of the LGM using stable oxygen isotope ratios provides good estimates of paleoclimate at other time periods. We use geologically informed rates of change derived from these reconstructions to predict magnitudes and rates of change in species' suitable habitat over the next century. Our approach to modeling the past suitable habitat of species is general and can be adopted by others. We use multiple lines of evidence of past climate (isotopes and climate models, phylogenetic topology (to correct the models for long-term changes in the suitable habitat of a species, and the fossil record, however sparse, to cross check the models. Our models indicate the annual rate of displacement in a clade of rattlesnakes over the next century will be 2 to 3 orders of magnitude greater (430-2,420 m/yr than it has been on average for the past 320 ky (2.3 m/yr.
South, Josie
2017-07-01
The ecological implications of biotic interactions, such as predator-prey relationships, are often context-dependent. Comparative functional responses analysis can be used under different abiotic contexts to improve understanding and prediction of the ecological impact of invasive species. Pterois volitans (Lionfish) [Linnaeus 1758] is an established invasive species in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, with a more recent invasion into the Mediterranean. Lionfish are generalist predators that impact a wide range of commercial and non-commercial species. Functional response analysis was employed to quantify interaction strength between lionfish and a generic prey species, the shrimp (Paleomonetes varians) [Leach 1814], under the contexts of differing temperature, habitat complexity and light wavelength. Lionfish have prey population destabilising Type II functional responses under all contexts examined. Significantly more prey were consumed at 26 °C than at 22 °C. Habitat complexity did not significantly alter the functional response parameters. Significantly more prey were consumed under white light and blue light than under red light. Attack rate was significantly higher under white light than under blue or red light. Light wavelength did not significantly change handling times. The impacts on prey populations through feeding rates may increase with concomitant temperature increase. As attack rates are very high at low habitat complexity this may elucidate the cause of high impact upon degraded reef ecosystems with low-density prey populations, although there was little protection conferred through habitat complexity. Only red light (i.e. dark) afforded any reduction in predation pressure. Management initiatives should account for these environmental factors when planning mitigation and prevention strategies.
Paired hormone response elements predict caveolin-1 as a glucocorticoid target gene.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marinus F van Batenburg
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Glucocorticoids act in part via glucocorticoid receptor binding to hormone response elements (HREs, but their direct target genes in vivo are still largely unknown. We developed the criterion that genomic occurrence of paired HREs at an inter-HRE distance less than 200 bp predicts hormone responsiveness, based on synergy of multiple HREs, and HRE information from known target genes. This criterion predicts a substantial number of novel responsive genes, when applied to genomic regions 10 kb upstream of genes. Multiple-tissue in situ hybridization showed that mRNA expression of 6 out of 10 selected genes was induced in a tissue-specific manner in mice treated with a single dose of corticosterone, with the spleen being the most responsive organ. Caveolin-1 was strongly responsive in several organs, and the HRE pair in its upstream region showed increased occupancy by glucocorticoid receptor in response to corticosterone. Our approach allowed for discovery of novel tissue specific glucocorticoid target genes, which may exemplify responses underlying the permissive actions of glucocorticoids.
Mood Predicts Response to Placebo CPAP
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Carl J. Stepnowsky
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Study Objectives. Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP therapy is efficacious for treating obstructive sleep apnea (OSA, but recent studies with placebo CPAP (CPAP administered at subtherapeutic pressure have revealed nonspecific (or placebo responses to CPAP treatment. This study examined baseline psychological factors associated with beneficial effects from placebo CPAP treatment. Participants. Twenty-five participants were studied with polysomnography at baseline and after treatment with placebo CPAP. Design. Participants were randomized to either CPAP treatment or placebo CPAP. Baseline mood was assessed with the Profile of Mood States (POMS. Total mood disturbance (POMS-Total was obtained by summing the six POMS subscale scores, with Vigor weighted negatively. The dependent variable was changed in apnea-hypopnea index (ΔAHI, calculated by subtracting pre- from post-CPAP AHI. Negative values implied improvement. Hierarchical regression analysis was performed, with pre-CPAP AHI added as a covariate to control for baseline OSA severity. Results. Baseline emotional distress predicted the drop in AHI in response to placebo CPAP. Highly distressed patients showed greater placebo response, with a 34% drop (i.e., improvement in AHI. Conclusion. These findings underscore the importance of placebo-controlled studies of CPAP treatment. Whereas such trials are routinely included in drug trials, this paper argues for their importance even in mechanical-oriented sleep interventions.
Mulej Bratec, Satja; Xie, Xiyao; Schmid, Gabriele; Doll, Anselm; Schilbach, Leonhard; Zimmer, Claus; Wohlschläger, Afra; Riedl, Valentin; Sorg, Christian
2015-12-01
Cognitive emotion regulation is a powerful way of modulating emotional responses. However, despite the vital role of emotions in learning, it is unknown whether the effect of cognitive emotion regulation also extends to the modulation of learning. Computational models indicate prediction error activity, typically observed in the striatum and ventral tegmental area, as a critical neural mechanism involved in associative learning. We used model-based fMRI during aversive conditioning with and without cognitive emotion regulation to test the hypothesis that emotion regulation would affect prediction error-related neural activity in the striatum and ventral tegmental area, reflecting an emotion regulation-related modulation of learning. Our results show that cognitive emotion regulation reduced emotion-related brain activity, but increased prediction error-related activity in a network involving ventral tegmental area, hippocampus, insula and ventral striatum. While the reduction of response activity was related to behavioral measures of emotion regulation success, the enhancement of prediction error-related neural activity was related to learning performance. Furthermore, functional connectivity between the ventral tegmental area and ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, an area involved in regulation, was specifically increased during emotion regulation and likewise related to learning performance. Our data, therefore, provide first-time evidence that beyond reducing emotional responses, cognitive emotion regulation affects learning by enhancing prediction error-related activity, potentially via tegmental dopaminergic pathways. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Machine learning for predicting the response of breast cancer to neoadjuvant chemotherapy.
Mani, Subramani; Chen, Yukun; Li, Xia; Arlinghaus, Lori; Chakravarthy, A Bapsi; Abramson, Vandana; Bhave, Sandeep R; Levy, Mia A; Xu, Hua; Yankeelov, Thomas E
2013-01-01
To employ machine learning methods to predict the eventual therapeutic response of breast cancer patients after a single cycle of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). Quantitative dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI and diffusion-weighted MRI data were acquired on 28 patients before and after one cycle of NAC. A total of 118 semiquantitative and quantitative parameters were derived from these data and combined with 11 clinical variables. We used Bayesian logistic regression in combination with feature selection using a machine learning framework for predictive model building. The best predictive models using feature selection obtained an area under the curve of 0.86 and an accuracy of 0.86, with a sensitivity of 0.88 and a specificity of 0.82. With the numerous options for NAC available, development of a method to predict response early in the course of therapy is needed. Unfortunately, by the time most patients are found not to be responding, their disease may no longer be surgically resectable, and this situation could be avoided by the development of techniques to assess response earlier in the treatment regimen. The method outlined here is one possible solution to this important clinical problem. Predictive modeling approaches based on machine learning using readily available clinical and quantitative MRI data show promise in distinguishing breast cancer responders from non-responders after the first cycle of NAC.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Toxopeus, Eelke Lucie Anne; Nieboer, Daan; Shapiro, Joel; Biermann, Katharina; Gaast, Ate van der; Rij, Carolien M. van; Steyerberg, Ewout Willem; Lanschot, Joseph Jan Baptiste van; Wijnhoven, Bas Peter Louis
2015-01-01
Background: A pathologically complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) is seen in 30% of the patients with oesophageal cancer. The aim is to identify patient and tumour characteristics associated with a pCR and to develop a nomogram for the prediction of pCR. Patients and methods: Patients who underwent nCRT followed by surgery were identified and response to nCRT was assessed according to a modified Mandard classification in the resection specimen. A model was developed with age, gender, histology and location of the tumour, differentiation grade, alcohol use, smoking, percentage weight loss, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), cT-stage and cN-stage as potential predictors for pCR. Probability of pCR was studied via logistic regression. Performance of the prediction nomogram was quantified using the concordance statistic (c-statistic) and corrected for optimism. Results: A total of 381 patients were included. After surgery, 27.6% of the tumours showed a pCR. Female sex, squamous cell histology, poor differentiation grade, and low cT-stage were predictive for a pCR with a c-statistic of 0.64 (corrected for optimism). Conclusion: A nomogram for the prediction of pathologically complete response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy was developed, with a reasonable predictive power. This nomogram needs external validation before it can be used for individualised clinical decision-making
Sage, R. F.; Bykova, O.; Coiner, H.
2010-12-01
One of the main effects of anthropogenic climate change will be widespread shifts in species distribution, with the common assumption that they will migrate to higher elevation and latitude. While this assumption is supported by migration patterns following climate warming in the past 20,000 years, it has not been rigorously evaluated in terms of physiological mechanism, despite the implication that migration in response to climate warming is controlled by some form of thermal adaptation. We have been evaluating the degree to which species range limits are controlled by physiological patterns of thermal tolerance in bioinvaders of North America. Bioinvaders presumably have few biotic controls over their distribution and thus are more likely to fully exploit their thermal niche. In cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), the minimum lethal temperature in winter is -32C, which corresponds to the mean winter minimum temperature at its northern range limit. In red brome (Bromus rubens), the minimum lethal temperature is also near -32C, which is well below the minimum winter temperature near -20C that corresponds to its northern distribution limit. In kudzu (Pueraria lobata), the minimum lethal temperature is near -20C, which corresponds to the midwinter minimum at its northern distribution limit; however, overwintering kudzu tissues are insulated by soil and snow cover, and thus do not experience lethal temperatures at kudzu's northern range limit. These results demonstrate that some invasive species can exploit the potential range defined by their low temperature tolerance and thus can be predicted by mechanistic models to migrate to higher latitudes with moderation of winter cold. The distribution of other invaders such as kudzu and red brome are not controlled by tolerance of midwinter cold. Developing mechanistic models of their distributions, and how these might change with climate warming, will require extensive physiological study.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luca Marchetti
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Systems biology has been recently applied to vaccinology to better understand immunological responses to the influenza vaccine. Particular attention has been paid to the identification of early signatures capable of predicting vaccine immunogenicity. Building from previous studies, we employed a recently established algorithm for signature-based clustering of expression profiles, SCUDO, to provide new insights into why blood-derived transcriptome biomarkers often fail to predict the seroresponse to the influenza virus vaccination. Specifically, preexisting immunity against one or more vaccine antigens, which was found to negatively affect the seroresponse, was identified as a confounding factor able to decouple early transcriptome from later antibody responses, resulting in the degradation of a biomarker predictive power. Finally, the broadly accepted definition of seroresponse to influenza virus vaccine, represented by the maximum response across the vaccine-targeted strains, was compared to a composite measure integrating the responses against all strains. This analysis revealed that composite measures provide a more accurate assessment of the seroresponse to multicomponent influenza vaccines.
Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty.
Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight; Cedergreen, Nina; Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Focks, Andreas; Gabsi, Faten; Gergs, André; Goussen, Benoit; Jager, Tjalling; Kramer, Nynke I; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Poulsen, Veronique; Reichenberger, Stefan; Schäfer, Ralf B; Van den Brink, Paul J; Veltman, Karin; Vogel, Sören; Zimmer, Elke I; Preuss, Thomas G
2016-07-06
The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans.
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Guisan Antoine
2009-04-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a real absences b pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97, and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have
Sublethal Effects in Pest Management: A Surrogate Species Perspective on Fruit Fly Control
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John E. Banks
2017-07-01
Full Text Available Tephritid fruit flies are economically important orchard pests globally. While much effort has focused on controlling individual species with a combination of pesticides and biological control, less attention has been paid to managing assemblages of species. Although several tephritid species may co-occur in orchards/cultivated areas, especially in mixed-cropping schemes, their responses to pesticides may be highly variable. Furthermore, predictive efforts about toxicant effects are generally based on acute toxicity, with little or no regard to long-term population effects. Using a simple matrix model parameterized with life history data, we quantified the responses of several tephritid species to the sublethal effects of a toxicant acting on fecundity. Using a critical threshold to determine levels of fecundity reduction below which species are driven to local extinction, we determined that threshold levels vary widely for the three tephritid species. In particular, Bactrocera dorsalis was the most robust of the three species, followed by Ceratitis capitata, and then B. cucurbitae, suggesting individual species responses should be taken into account when planning for area-wide pest control. The rank-order of susceptibility contrasts with results from several field/lab studies testing the same species, suggesting that considering a combination of life history traits and individual species susceptibility is necessary for understanding population responses of species assemblages to toxicant exposure.
Jesenska, Sona; Liess, Mathias; Schäfer, Ralf; Beketov, Mikhail; Blaha, Ludek
2013-04-01
Species sensitivity distribution (SSD) is statistical method broadly used in the ecotoxicological risk assessment of chemicals. Originally it has been used for prospective risk assessment of single substances but nowadays it is becoming more important also in the retrospective risk assessment of mixtures, including the catchment scale. In the present work, SSD predictions (impacts of mixtures consisting of 25 pesticides; data from several catchments in Germany, France and Finland) were compared with SPEAR-pesticides, which a bioindicator index based on biological traits responsive to the effects of pesticides and post-contamination recovery. The results showed statistically significant correlations (Pearson's R, ppesticides (based on field biomonitoring observations). Comparisons of the thresholds established for the SSD and SPEAR approaches (SPEAR-pesticides=45%, i.e. LOEC level, and msPAF = 0.05 for SSD, i.e. HC5) showed that use of chronic toxicity data significantly improved the agreement between the two methods but the SPEAR-pesticides index was still more sensitive. Taken together, the validation study shows good potential of SSD models in predicting the real impacts of micropollutant mixtures on natural communities of aquatic biota.
Towards personalized therapy for multiple sclerosis: prediction of individual treatment response.
Kalincik, Tomas; Manouchehrinia, Ali; Sobisek, Lukas; Jokubaitis, Vilija; Spelman, Tim; Horakova, Dana; Havrdova, Eva; Trojano, Maria; Izquierdo, Guillermo; Lugaresi, Alessandra; Girard, Marc; Prat, Alexandre; Duquette, Pierre; Grammond, Pierre; Sola, Patrizia; Hupperts, Raymond; Grand'Maison, Francois; Pucci, Eugenio; Boz, Cavit; Alroughani, Raed; Van Pesch, Vincent; Lechner-Scott, Jeannette; Terzi, Murat; Bergamaschi, Roberto; Iuliano, Gerardo; Granella, Franco; Spitaleri, Daniele; Shaygannejad, Vahid; Oreja-Guevara, Celia; Slee, Mark; Ampapa, Radek; Verheul, Freek; McCombe, Pamela; Olascoaga, Javier; Amato, Maria Pia; Vucic, Steve; Hodgkinson, Suzanne; Ramo-Tello, Cristina; Flechter, Shlomo; Cristiano, Edgardo; Rozsa, Csilla; Moore, Fraser; Luis Sanchez-Menoyo, Jose; Laura Saladino, Maria; Barnett, Michael; Hillert, Jan; Butzkueven, Helmut
2017-09-01
Timely initiation of effective therapy is crucial for preventing disability in multiple sclerosis; however, treatment response varies greatly among patients. Comprehensive predictive models of individual treatment response are lacking. Our aims were: (i) to develop predictive algorithms for individual treatment response using demographic, clinical and paraclinical predictors in patients with multiple sclerosis; and (ii) to evaluate accuracy, and internal and external validity of these algorithms. This study evaluated 27 demographic, clinical and paraclinical predictors of individual response to seven disease-modifying therapies in MSBase, a large global cohort study. Treatment response was analysed separately for disability progression, disability regression, relapse frequency, conversion to secondary progressive disease, change in the cumulative disease burden, and the probability of treatment discontinuation. Multivariable survival and generalized linear models were used, together with the principal component analysis to reduce model dimensionality and prevent overparameterization. Accuracy of the individual prediction was tested and its internal validity was evaluated in a separate, non-overlapping cohort. External validity was evaluated in a geographically distinct cohort, the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry. In the training cohort (n = 8513), the most prominent modifiers of treatment response comprised age, disease duration, disease course, previous relapse activity, disability, predominant relapse phenotype and previous therapy. Importantly, the magnitude and direction of the associations varied among therapies and disease outcomes. Higher probability of disability progression during treatment with injectable therapies was predominantly associated with a greater disability at treatment start and the previous therapy. For fingolimod, natalizumab or mitoxantrone, it was mainly associated with lower pretreatment relapse activity. The probability of
Germination Response of Four Alien Congeneric Amaranthus Species to Environmental Factors.
Hao, Jian-Hua; Lv, Shuang-Shuang; Bhattacharya, Saurav; Fu, Jian-Guo
2017-01-01
Seed germination is the key step for successful establishment, growth and further expansion of population especially for alien plants with annual life cycle. Traits like better adaptability and germination response were thought to be associated with plant invasion. However, there are not enough empirical studies correlating adaptation to environmental factors with germination response of alien invasive plants. In this study, we conducted congeneric comparisons of germination response to different environmental factors such as light, pH, NaCl, osmotic and soil burials among four alien amaranths that differ in invasiveness and have sympatric distribution in Jiangsu Province, China. The data were used to create three-parameter sigmoid and exponential decay models, which were fitted to cumulative germination and emergence curves. The results showed higher maximum Germination (Gmax), shorter time for 50% germination (G50) and the rapid slope (Grate) for Amaranthus blitum (low-invasive) and A. retroflexus (high-invasive) compare to intermediately invasive A. spinosus and A. viridis in all experimental regimes. It indicated that germination potential does not necessarily constitute a trait that can efficiently distinguish highly invasive and low invasive congeners in four Amaranthus species. However, it was showed that the germination performances of four amaranth species were more or less correlated with their worldwide distribution area. Therefore, the germination performance can be used as a reference indicator, but not an absolute trait for invasiveness. Our results also confirmed that superior germination performance in wide environmental conditions supplementing high seed productivity in highly invasive A. retroflexus might be one of the reasons for its prolific growth and wide distribution. These findings lay the foundation to develop more efficient weed management practice like deep burial of seeds by turning over soil and use of tillage agriculture to control
Workman, Megan; Baker, Jack; Lancaster, Jane B; Mermier, Christine; Alcock, Joe
2016-07-01
Aiming to test the evolutionary significance of relationships linking prenatal growth conditions to adult phenotypes, this study examined whether birth size predicts energetic savings during fasting. We specifically tested a Predictive Adaptive Response (PAR) model that predicts greater energetic saving among adults who were born small. Data were collected from a convenience sample of young adults living in Albuquerque, NM (n = 34). Indirect calorimetry quantified changes in resting energy expenditure (REE) and active muscular efficiency that occurred in response to a 29-h fast. Multiple regression analyses linked birth weight to baseline and postfast metabolic values while controlling for appropriate confounders (e.g., sex, body mass). Birth weight did not moderate the relationship between body size and energy expenditure, nor did it predict the magnitude change in REE or muscular efficiency observed from baseline to after fasting. Alternative indicators of birth size were also examined (e.g., low v. normal birth weight, comparison of tertiles), with no effects found. However, baseline muscular efficiency improved by 1.1% per 725 g (S.D.) increase in birth weight (P = 0.037). Birth size did not influence the sensitivity of metabolic demands to fasting-neither at rest nor during activity. Moreover, small birth size predicted a reduction in the efficiency with which muscles convert energy expended into work accomplished. These results do not support the ascription of adaptive function to phenotypes associated with small birth size. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 28:484-492, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Fern Stomatal Responses to ABA and CO2 Depend on Species and Growth Conditions.
Hõrak, Hanna; Kollist, Hannes; Merilo, Ebe
2017-06-01
Changing atmospheric CO 2 levels, climate, and air humidity affect plant gas exchange that is controlled by stomata, small pores on plant leaves and stems formed by guard cells. Evolution has shaped the morphology and regulatory mechanisms governing stomatal movements to correspond to the needs of various land plant groups over the past 400 million years. Stomata close in response to the plant hormone abscisic acid (ABA), elevated CO 2 concentration, and reduced air humidity. Whether the active regulatory mechanisms that control stomatal closure in response to these stimuli are present already in mosses, the oldest plant group with stomata, or were acquired more recently in angiosperms remains controversial. It has been suggested that the stomata of the basal vascular plants, such as ferns and lycophytes, close solely hydropassively. On the other hand, active stomatal closure in response to ABA and CO 2 was found in several moss, lycophyte, and fern species. Here, we show that the stomata of two temperate fern species respond to ABA and CO 2 and that an active mechanism of stomatal regulation in response to reduced air humidity is present in some ferns. Importantly, fern stomatal responses depend on growth conditions. The data indicate that the stomatal behavior of ferns is more complex than anticipated before, and active stomatal regulation is present in some ferns and has possibly been lost in others. Further analysis that takes into account fern species, life history, evolutionary age, and growth conditions is required to gain insight into the evolution of land plant stomatal responses. © 2017 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.
Angelier, Frédéric; Parenteau, Charline; Trouvé, Colette; Angelier, Nicole
2016-12-01
Although the transfer of wild animals to captivity is crucial for conservation purposes, this process is often challenging because some species or individuals do not adjust well to captive conditions. Chronic stress has been identified as a major concern for animals held on long-term captivity. Surprisingly, the first hours or days of captivity have been relatively overlooked. However, they are certainly very stressful, because individuals are being transferred to a totally novel and confined environment. To ensure the success of conservation programmes, it appears crucial to better understand the proximate causes of interspecific and interindividual variability in the sensitivity to these first hours of captivity. In that respect, the study of stress hormones is relevant, because the hormonal stress response may help to assess whether specific individuals or species adjust, or not, to such captive conditions ('the stress response-adjustment to captivity hypothesis'). We tested this hypothesis in rock pigeons by measuring their corticosterone stress response and their ability to adjust to short-term captivity (body mass loss and circulating corticosterone levels after a day of captivity). We showed that an increased corticosterone stress response is associated with a lower ability to adjust to short-term captivity (i.e. higher body mass loss and circulating corticosterone levels). Our study suggests, therefore, that a low physiological sensitivity to stress may be beneficial for adjusting to captivity. Future studies should now explore whether the stress response can be useful to predict the ability of individuals from different populations or species to not only adjust to short-term but also long-term captivity.
Mustonen, Kaisa-Riikka; Mykrä, Heikki; Marttila, Hannu; Sarremejane, Romain; Veijalainen, Noora; Sippel, Kalle; Muotka, Timo; Hawkins, Charles P
2018-06-01
Air temperature at the northernmost latitudes is predicted to increase steeply and precipitation to become more variable by the end of the 21st century, resulting in altered thermal and hydrological regimes. We applied five climate scenarios to predict the future (2070-2100) benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages at 239 near-pristine sites across Finland (ca. 1200 km latitudinal span). We used a multitaxon distribution model with air temperature and modeled daily flow as predictors. As expected, projected air temperature increased the most in northernmost Finland. Predicted taxonomic richness also increased the most in northern Finland, congruent with the predicted northwards shift of many species' distributions. Compositional changes were predicted to be high even without changes in richness, suggesting that species replacement may be the main mechanism causing climate-induced changes in macroinvertebrate assemblages. Northern streams were predicted to lose much of the seasonality of their flow regimes, causing potentially marked changes in stream benthic assemblages. Sites with the highest loss of seasonality were predicted to support future assemblages that deviate most in compositional similarity from the present-day assemblages. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were also predicted to change more in headwaters than in larger streams, as headwaters were particularly sensitive to changes in flow patterns. Our results emphasize the importance of focusing protection and mitigation on headwater streams with high-flow seasonality because of their vulnerability to climate change. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Neto Armando
2012-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Signal peptide is one of the most important motifs involved in protein trafficking and it ultimately influences protein function. Considering the expected functional conservation among orthologs it was hypothesized that divergence in signal peptides within orthologous groups is mainly due to N-terminal protein sequence misannotation. Thus, discrepancies in signal peptide prediction of orthologous proteins were used to identify misannotated proteins in five Plasmodium species. Methods Signal peptide (SignalP and orthology (OrthoMCL were combined in an innovative strategy to identify orthologous groups showing discrepancies in signal peptide prediction among their protein members (Mixed groups. In a comparative analysis, multiple alignments for each of these groups and gene models were visually inspected in search of misannotated proteins and, whenever possible, alternative gene models were proposed. Thresholds for signal peptide prediction parameters were also modified to reduce their impact as a possible source of discrepancy among orthologs. Validation of new gene models was based on RT-PCR (few examples or on experimental evidence already published (ApiLoc. Results The rate of misannotated proteins was significantly higher in Mixed groups than in Positive or Negative groups, corroborating the proposed hypothesis. A total of 478 proteins were reannotated and change of signal peptide prediction from negative to positive was the most common. Reannotations triggered the conversion of almost 50% of all Mixed groups, which were further reduced by optimization of signal peptide prediction parameters. Conclusions The methodological novelty proposed here combining orthology and signal peptide prediction proved to be an effective strategy for the identification of proteins showing wrongly N-terminal annotated sequences, and it might have an important impact in the available data for genome-wide searching of potential vaccine and drug
Core-satellite species hypothesis and native versus exotic species in secondary succession
Martinez, Kelsey A.; Gibson, David J.; Middleton, Beth A.
2015-01-01
A number of hypotheses exist to explain species’ distributions in a landscape, but these hypotheses are not frequently utilized to explain the differences in native and exotic species distributions. The core-satellite species (CSS) hypothesis predicts species occupancy will be bimodally distributed, i.e., many species will be common and many species will be rare, but does not explicitly consider exotic species distributions. The parallel dynamics (PD) hypothesis predicts that regional occurrence patterns of exotic species will be similar to native species. Together, the CSS and PD hypotheses may increase our understanding of exotic species’ distribution relative to natives. We selected an old field undergoing secondary succession to study the CSS and PD hypotheses in conjunction with each other. The ratio of exotic to native species (richness and abundance) was observed through 17 years of secondary succession. We predicted species would be bimodally distributed and that exotic:native species ratios would remain steady or decrease through time under frequent disturbance. In contrast to the CSS and PD hypotheses, native species occupancies were not bimodally distributed at the site, but exotic species were. The exotic:native species ratios for both richness (E:Nrichness) and abundance (E:Ncover) generally decreased or remained constant throughout supporting the PD hypothesis. Our results suggest exotic species exhibit metapopulation structure in old field landscapes, but that metapopulation structures of native species are disrupted, perhaps because these species are dispersal limited in the fragmented landscape.
Kashyap, Rachit; Sharma, Rohit; Uniyal, Sanjay Kr
2018-04-21
Loss of green cover, and increasing pollution is a prime global concern. The problem calls for screening of pollution-tolerant tree species that can be integrated into plantation drives. Recognizing this, the study analyzed bio-indicator responses and performance of commonly occurring plant species along a pollution gradient in western Himalaya. Based on distance from the road, three sites viz., highly polluted (HP), moderately polluted (MP), and least polluted (LP), were identified. From these sites, leaves of commonly occurring 26 tree species were collected and analyzed for dust accumulation, total chlorophyll, relative water content (RWC), ascorbic acid, and pH using standard protocols. Later, assessment of Air Pollution Tolerance Index (APTI) and Anticipated Performance Indices (API) was carried out. The results revealed variations in biochemical characteristics. The pH, RWC, and total chlorophyll increased with decreasing pollution while ascorbic acid increased with increasing pollution. Dust capturing potential of Ficus carica (1.191 mg/m 2 ) and Toona ciliata (0.820 mg/m 2 ) was relatively higher. Based on the results of APTI, Grevillea robusta was classified as tolerant. It scored significantly higher values (21.06, 21.19, and 19.61 in LP, MP, and HP sites, respectively). Quercus floribunda, G. robusta (68.75% each), Juglans regia (68.7%), and T. ciliata (62.50%) were good performers in HP sites. Acer caesium, Betula utilis, and Morus alba that had low API scores (43.75%) were predicted as poor performers. Thus, G. robusta, Q. floribunda, J. regia, T. ciliata, and F. carica were evaluated as best performers. They could be integrated into plantations drives for environmental management.
Species-Specific Responses of Juvenile Rockfish to Elevated pCO2: From Behavior to Genomics.
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Scott L Hamilton
Full Text Available In the California Current ecosystem, global climate change is predicted to trigger large-scale changes in ocean chemistry within this century. Ocean acidification-which occurs when increased levels of atmospheric CO2 dissolve into the ocean-is one of the biggest potential threats to marine life. In a coastal upwelling system, we compared the effects of chronic exposure to low pH (elevated pCO2 at four treatment levels (i.e., pCO2 = ambient [500], moderate [750], high [1900], and extreme [2800 μatm] on behavior, physiology, and patterns of gene expression in white muscle tissue of juvenile rockfish (genus Sebastes, integrating responses from the transcriptome to the whole organism level. Experiments were conducted simultaneously on two closely related species that both inhabit kelp forests, yet differ in early life history traits, to compare high-CO2 tolerance among species. Our findings indicate that these congeners express different sensitivities to elevated CO2 levels. Copper rockfish (S. caurinus exhibited changes in behavioral lateralization, reduced critical swimming speed, depressed aerobic scope, changes in metabolic enzyme activity, and increases in the expression of transcription factors and regulatory genes at high pCO2 exposure. Blue rockfish (S. mystinus, in contrast, showed no significant changes in behavior, swimming physiology, or aerobic capacity, but did exhibit significant changes in the expression of muscle structural genes as a function of pCO2, indicating acclimatization potential. The capacity of long-lived, late to mature, commercially important fish to acclimatize and adapt to changing ocean chemistry over the next 50-100 years is likely dependent on species-specific physiological tolerances.
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Wei Wang
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Pollination is a crucial stage in plant reproductive process. The self-compatibility (SC and self-incompatibility (SI mechanisms determined the plant genetic diversity and species survival. D. chrysanthum is a highly valued ornamental and traditional herbal orchid in Asia but has been declared endangered. The sexual reproduction in D. chrysanthum relies on the compatibility of pollination. To provide a better understanding of the mechanism of pollination, the differentially expressed proteins (DEP between the self-pollination (SP and cross-pollination (CP pistil of D. chrysanthum were investigated using proteomic approaches—two-dimensional electrophoresis (2-DE coupled with tandem mass spectrometry technique. A total of 54 DEP spots were identified in the two-dimensional electrophoresis (2-DE maps between the SP and CP. Gene ontology analysis revealed an array of proteins belonging to following different functional categories: metabolic process (8.94%, response to stimulus (5.69%, biosynthetic process (4.07%, protein folding (3.25% and transport (3.25%. Identification of these DEPs at the early response stage of pollination will hopefully provide new insights in the mechanism of pollination response and help for the conservation of the orchid species.
Ortega-García, Stephanie; Guevara, Lázaro; Arroyo-Cabrales, Joaquín; Lindig-Cisneros, Roberto; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique; Vega, Ernesto; Schondube, Jorge E
2017-09-01
The thermal niche of a species is one of the main determinants of its ecology and biogeography. In this study, we determined the thermal niche of 23 species of Neotropical nectar-feeding bats of the subfamily Glossophaginae (Chiroptera, Phyllostomidae). We calculated their thermal niches using temperature data obtained from collection records, by generating a distribution curve of the maximum and minimum temperatures per locality, and using the inflection points of the temperature distributions to estimate the species optimal (STZ) and suboptimal (SRZ) zones of the thermal niche. Additionally, by mapping the values of the STZ and SRZ on a phylogeny of the group, we generated a hypothesis of the evolution of the thermal niches of this clade of nectar-feeding bats. Finally, we used the characteristics of their thermal niches to predict the responses of these organisms to climate change. We found a large variation in the width and limits of the thermal niches of nectar-feeding bats. Additionally, while the upper limits of the thermal niches varied little among species, their lower limits differ wildly. The ancestral reconstruction of the thermal niche indicated that this group of Neotropical bats evolved under cooler temperatures. The two clades inside the Glossophaginae differ in the evolution of their thermal niches, with most members of the clade Choeronycterines evolving "colder" thermal niches, while the majority of the species in the clade Glossophagines evolving "warmer" thermal niches. By comparing thermal niches with climate change models, we found that all species could be affected by an increase of 1°C in temperature at the end of this century. This suggests that even nocturnal species could suffer important physiological costs from global warming. Our study highlights the value of scientific collections to obtain ecologically significant physiological data for a large number of species.
Dick, JTA; Laverty, C; Lennon, JJ; Barrios-O'Neill, D; Mensink, PJ; Britton, JR; Medoc, V; Boets, P; Alexander, ME; Taylor, NG; Dunn, AM; Hatcher, MJ; Rosewarne, PJ; Crookes, S; MacIsaac, HJ
2017-01-01
1. Predictions of the identities and ecological impacts of invasive alien species are critical for risk assessment, but presently we lack universal and standardized metrics that reliably predict the likelihood and degree of impact of such invaders (i.e. measurable changes in populations of affected species). This need is especially pressing for emerging and potential future invaders that have no invasion history. Such a metric would also ideally apply across diverse taxonomic and trophic gro...
Evolution and behavioural responses to human-induced rapid environmental change.
Sih, Andrew; Ferrari, Maud C O; Harris, David J
2011-03-01
Almost all organisms live in environments that have been altered, to some degree, by human activities. Because behaviour mediates interactions between an individual and its environment, the ability of organisms to behave appropriately under these new conditions is crucial for determining their immediate success or failure in these modified environments. While hundreds of species are suffering dramatically from these environmental changes, others, such as urbanized and pest species, are doing better than ever. Our goal is to provide insights into explaining such variation. We first summarize the responses of some species to novel situations, including novel risks and resources, habitat loss/fragmentation, pollutants and climate change. Using a sensory ecology approach, we present a mechanistic framework for predicting variation in behavioural responses to environmental change, drawing from models of decision-making processes and an understanding of the selective background against which they evolved. Where immediate behavioural responses are inadequate, learning or evolutionary adaptation may prove useful, although these mechanisms are also constrained by evolutionary history. Although predicting the responses of species to environmental change is difficult, we highlight the need for a better understanding of the role of evolutionary history in shaping individuals' responses to their environment and provide suggestion for future work.
González, Camila; Paz, Andrea; Ferro, Cristina
2014-01-01
Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is caused by the trypanosomatid parasite Leishmania infantum (=Leishmania chagasi), and is epidemiologically relevant due to its wide geographic distribution, the number of annual cases reported and the increase in its co-infection with HIV. Two vector species have been incriminated in the Americas: Lutzomyia longipalpis and Lutzomyia evansi. In Colombia, L. longipalpis is distributed along the Magdalena River Valley while L. evansi is only found in the northern part of the Country. Regarding the epidemiology of the disease, in Colombia the incidence of VL has decreased over the last few years without any intervention being implemented. Additionally, changes in transmission cycles have been reported with urban transmission occurring in the Caribbean Coast. In Europe and North America climate change seems to be driving a latitudinal shift of leishmaniasis transmission. Here, we explored the spatial distribution of the two known vector species of L. infantum in Colombia and projected its future distribution into climate change scenarios to establish the expansion potential of the disease. An updated database including L. longipalpis and L. evansi collection records from Colombia was compiled. Ecological niche models were performed for each species using the Maxent software and 13 Worldclim bioclimatic coverages. Projections were made for the pessimistic CSIRO A2 scenario, which predicts the higher increase in temperature due to non-emission reduction, and the optimistic Hadley B2 Scenario predicting the minimum increase in temperature. The database contained 23 records for L. evansi and 39 records for L. longipalpis, distributed along the Magdalena River Valley and the Caribbean Coast, where the potential distribution areas of both species were also predicted by Maxent. Climate change projections showed a general overall reduction in the spatial distribution of the two vector species, promoting a shift in altitudinal distribution for L
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Katie Leach
Full Text Available Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs have been used widely to project changes in species' bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed 'modellable' within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species. Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov's Pika (Ochotona koslowi. Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of
Frady, Gregory P.; Duvall, Lowery D.; Fulcher, Clay W. G.; Laverde, Bruce T.; Hunt, Ronald A.
2011-01-01
rich body of vibroacoustic test data was recently generated at Marshall Space Flight Center for component-loaded curved orthogrid panels typical of launch vehicle skin structures. The test data were used to anchor computational predictions of a variety of spatially distributed responses including acceleration, strain and component interface force. Transfer functions relating the responses to the input pressure field were generated from finite element based modal solutions and test-derived damping estimates. A diffuse acoustic field model was applied to correlate the measured input sound pressures across the energized panel. This application quantifies the ability to quickly and accurately predict a variety of responses to acoustically energized skin panels with mounted components. Favorable comparisons between the measured and predicted responses were established. The validated models were used to examine vibration response sensitivities to relevant modeling parameters such as pressure patch density, mesh density, weight of the mounted component and model form. Convergence metrics include spectral densities and cumulative root-mean squared (RMS) functions for acceleration, velocity, displacement, strain and interface force. Minimum frequencies for response convergence were established as well as recommendations for modeling techniques, particularly in the early stages of a component design when accurate structural vibration requirements are needed relatively quickly. The results were compared with long-established guidelines for modeling accuracy of component-loaded panels. A theoretical basis for the Response/Pressure Transfer Function (RPTF) approach provides insight into trends observed in the response predictions and confirmed in the test data. The software developed for the RPTF method allows easy replacement of the diffuse acoustic field with other pressure fields such as a turbulent boundary layer (TBL) model suitable for vehicle ascent. Structural responses
Predictive value of brain perfusion SPECT for rTMS response in pharmacoresistant depression
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Richieri, Raphaelle; Lancon, Christophe [Sainte-Marguerite University Hospital, Department of Psychiatry, Marseille (France); La Timone University, EA 3279 - Self-perceived Health Assessment Research Unit, School of Medicine, Marseille (France); Boyer, Laurent [La Timone University, EA 3279 - Self-perceived Health Assessment Research Unit, School of Medicine, Marseille (France); La Timone University Hospital, Assistance Publique - Hopitaux de Marseille, Department of Public Health, Marseille (France); Farisse, Jean [Sainte-Marguerite University Hospital, Department of Psychiatry, Marseille (France); Colavolpe, Cecile; Mundler, Olivier [La Timone University Hospital, Assistance Publique - Hopitaux de Marseille, Service Central de Biophysique et Medecine Nucleaire, Marseille (France); Universite de la Mediterranee, Centre Europeen de Recherche en Imagerie Medicale (CERIMED), Marseille (France); Guedj, Eric [La Timone University Hospital, Assistance Publique - Hopitaux de Marseille, Service Central de Biophysique et Medecine Nucleaire, Marseille (France); Universite de la Mediterranee, Centre Europeen de Recherche en Imagerie Medicale (CERIMED), Marseille (France); Hopital de la Timone, Service Central de Biophysique et de Medecine Nucleaire, Marseille Cedex 5 (France)
2011-09-15
The aim of this study was to determine the predictive value of whole-brain voxel-based regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) for repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) response in patients with pharmacoresistant depression. Thirty-three right-handed patients who met DSM-IV criteria for major depressive disorder (unipolar or bipolar depression) were included before rTMS. rTMS response was defined as at least 50% reduction in the baseline Beck Depression Inventory scores. The predictive value of {sup 99m}Tc-ethyl cysteinate dimer (ECD) single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) for rTMS response was studied before treatment by comparing rTMS responders to non-responders at voxel level using Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) (p < 0.001, uncorrected). Of the patients, 18 (54.5%) were responders to rTMS and 15 were non-responders (45.5%). There were no statistically significant differences in demographic and clinical characteristics (p > 0.10). In comparison to responders, non-responders showed significant hypoperfusions (p < 0.001, uncorrected) in the left medial and bilateral superior frontal cortices (BA10), the left uncus/parahippocampal cortex (BA20/BA35) and the right thalamus. The area under the curve for the combination of SPECT clusters to predict rTMS response was 0.89 (p < 0.001). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for the combination of clusters were: 94, 73, 81 and 92%, respectively. This study shows that, in pharmacoresistant depression, pretreatment rCBF of specific brain regions is a strong predictor for response to rTMS in patients with homogeneous demographic/clinical features. (orig.)
Provenance-specific growth responses to drought and air warming in three European oak species
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Arend, Matthias; Kuster, Thomas; Gunthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S.; Dobbertin, Matthias
2011-03-15
This study evaluated oak growth responses to air warming through research conducted with species coming from climatically different sites submitted to differing climates including periodic drought and air warming. Results showed different responses to drought and air warming as an adaptation to the conditions, and differences in growth response from one provenance to another were found but local climate factors were not responsible. This study highlighted that provenance was important to growth responses and it will have to be taken into account for regeneration of oaks in a changed climate if these results are confirmed.
Predicting Emotional Responses to Horror Films from Cue-Specific Affect.
Neuendorf, Kimberly A.; Sparks, Glenn G.
1988-01-01
Assesses individuals' fear and enjoyment reactions to horror films, applying theories of cognition and affect that predict emotional responses to a stimulus on the basis of prior affect toward specific cues included in that stimulus. (MM)
Assessment of Predictive Markers of Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Breast Cancer
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Mallika Tewari
2010-10-01
Conclusion: Of all parameters examined, only the apoptosis-related genes (Bcl-2 and BAX seemed to exert some influence on the response to NACT, and neither by itself was sufficient to predict pCR; however, 50 patients is not sufficient to simultaneously analyse several predictive markers.
Ebrahimi, Mehregan; Ebrahimie, Esmaeil; Bull, C Michael
2015-08-01
The high number of failures is one reason why translocation is often not recommended. Considering how behavior changes during translocations may improve translocation success. To derive decision-tree models for species' translocation, we used data on the short-term responses of an endangered Australian skink in 5 simulated translocations with different release conditions. We used 4 different decision-tree algorithms (decision tree, decision-tree parallel, decision stump, and random forest) with 4 different criteria (gain ratio, information gain, gini index, and accuracy) to investigate how environmental and behavioral parameters may affect the success of a translocation. We assumed behavioral changes that increased dispersal away from a release site would reduce translocation success. The trees became more complex when we included all behavioral parameters as attributes, but these trees yielded more detailed information about why and how dispersal occurred. According to these complex trees, there were positive associations between some behavioral parameters, such as fight and dispersal, that showed there was a higher chance, for example, of dispersal among lizards that fought than among those that did not fight. Decision trees based on parameters related to release conditions were easier to understand and could be used by managers to make translocation decisions under different circumstances. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.
Responses of woody species to spatial and temporal ground water changes in coastal sand dune systems
Máguas, C.; Rascher, K. G.; Martins-Loução, A.; Carvalho, P.; Pinho, P.; Ramos, M.; Correia, O.; Werner, C.
2011-12-01
In spite of the relative importance of groundwater in costal dune systems, studies concerning the responses of vegetation to ground water (GW) availability variations, particularly in Mediterranean regions, are scarce. Thus, the main purpose of this study is to compare the responses of co-occurring species possessing different functional traits, to changes in GW levels (i.e. the lowering of GW levels) in a sand dune ecosystem. For that, five sites were established within a 1 km2 area in a meso-mediterranean sand dune ecosystem dominated by a Pinus pinaster forest. Due to natural topographic variability and anthropogenic GW exploitation, substantial variability in depth to GW between sites was found. Under these conditions it was possible to identify the degree of usage and dependence on GW of different plant species (two deep-rooted trees, a drought adapted shrub, a phreatophyte and a non-native woody invader) and how GW dependence varied seasonally and between the heterogeneous sites. Results indicated that the plant species had differential responses to changes in GW depth according to specific functional traits (i.e. rooting depth, leaf morphology, and water use strategy). Species comparison revealed that variability in pre-dawn water potential (Ψpre) and bulk leaf δ13C was related to site differences in GW use in the deep-rooted (Pinus pinaster, Myrica faya) and phreatophyte (Salix repens) species. However, such variation was more evident during spring than during summer drought. The exotic invader, Acacia longifolia, which does not possess a very deep root system, presented the largest seasonal variability in Ψpre and bulk leaf δ13C. In contrast, the response of Corema album, an endemic understory drought-adapted shrub, seemed to be independent of water availability across seasons and sites. Thus, the susceptibility to lowering of GW due to anthropogenic exploitation, in plant species from sand dunes, is variable, being particularly relevant for deep
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Conor P. McGowan
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Assessment of a species' status is a key part of management decision making for endangered and threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Predicting the future state of the species is an essential part of species status assessment, and projection models can play an important role in developing predictions. We built a stochastic simulation model that incorporated parametric and environmental uncertainty to predict the probable future status of the Sonoran desert tortoise in the southwestern United States and North Central Mexico. Sonoran desert tortoise was a Candidate species for listing under the Endangered Species Act, and decision makers wanted to use model predictions in their decision making process. The model accounted for future habitat loss and possible effects of climate change induced droughts to predict future population growth rates, abundances, and quasi-extinction probabilities. Our model predicts that the population will likely decline over the next few decades, but there is very low probability of quasi-extinction less than 75 years into the future. Increases in drought frequency and intensity may increase extinction risk for the species. Our model helped decision makers predict and characterize uncertainty about the future status of the species in their listing decision. We incorporated complex ecological processes (e.g., climate change effects on tortoises in transparent and explicit ways tailored to support decision making processes related to endangered species.
McGowan, Conor P.; Allan, Nathan; Servoss, Jeff; Hedwall, Shaula J.; Wooldridge, Brian
2017-01-01
Assessment of a species' status is a key part of management decision making for endangered and threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Predicting the future state of the species is an essential part of species status assessment, and projection models can play an important role in developing predictions. We built a stochastic simulation model that incorporated parametric and environmental uncertainty to predict the probable future status of the Sonoran desert tortoise in the southwestern United States and North Central Mexico. Sonoran desert tortoise was a Candidate species for listing under the Endangered Species Act, and decision makers wanted to use model predictions in their decision making process. The model accounted for future habitat loss and possible effects of climate change induced droughts to predict future population growth rates, abundances, and quasi-extinction probabilities. Our model predicts that the population will likely decline over the next few decades, but there is very low probability of quasi-extinction less than 75 years into the future. Increases in drought frequency and intensity may increase extinction risk for the species. Our model helped decision makers predict and characterize uncertainty about the future status of the species in their listing decision. We incorporated complex ecological processes (e.g., climate change effects on tortoises) in transparent and explicit ways tailored to support decision making processes related to endangered species.
Speed, Brittany C.; Nelson, Brady; Bress, Jennifer N.; Hajcak, Greg
2017-01-01
Abstract Parenting styles are robust predictors of offspring outcomes, yet little is known about their neural underpinnings. In this study, 44 parent-adolescent dyads (Mage of adolescent = 12.9) completed a laboratory guessing task while EEG was continuously recorded. In the task, each pair member received feedback about their own monetary wins and losses and also observed the monetary wins and losses of the other member of the pair. We examined the association between self-reported parenting style and parents’ electrophysiological responses to watching their adolescent winning and losing money, dubbed the observational Reward Positivity (RewP) and observational feedback negativity (FN), respectively. Self-reported authoritarian parenting predicted reductions in parents’ observational RewP but not FN. This predictive relationship remained after adjusting for sex of both participants, parents’ responsiveness to their own wins, and parental psychopathology. ‘Exploratory analyses found that permissive parenting was associated with a blunting of the adolescents’ response to their parents’ losses’. These findings suggest that parents’ rapid neural responses to their child’s successes may relate to the harsh parenting behaviors associated with authoritarian parenting. PMID:27613780
López, Yosvany; Nakai, Kenta; Patil, Ashwini
2015-01-01
HitPredict is a consolidated resource of experimentally identified, physical protein-protein interactions with confidence scores to indicate their reliability. The study of genes and their inter-relationships using methods such as network and pathway analysis requires high quality protein-protein interaction information. Extracting reliable interactions from most of the existing databases is challenging because they either contain only a subset of the available interactions, or a mixture of physical, genetic and predicted interactions. Automated integration of interactions is further complicated by varying levels of accuracy of database content and lack of adherence to standard formats. To address these issues, the latest version of HitPredict provides a manually curated dataset of 398 696 physical associations between 70 808 proteins from 105 species. Manual confirmation was used to resolve all issues encountered during data integration. For improved reliability assessment, this version combines a new score derived from the experimental information of the interactions with the original score based on the features of the interacting proteins. The combined interaction score performs better than either of the individual scores in HitPredict as well as the reliability score of another similar database. HitPredict provides a web interface to search proteins and visualize their interactions, and the data can be downloaded for offline analysis. Data usability has been enhanced by mapping protein identifiers across multiple reference databases. Thus, the latest version of HitPredict provides a significantly larger, more reliable and usable dataset of protein-protein interactions from several species for the study of gene groups. Database URL: http://hintdb.hgc.jp/htp. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.
The responses to supplementary of UV radiation of some temperate meadow species
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cooley, N.M.
2002-01-01
Full text: The growth and development of various meadow species was monitored while growing under enhanced UV-radiation in the natural light environment. Growth responses to supplementary ultraviolet-B (UV-B+A) and ultraviolet-A (UV-A) were compared to the ambient daylight treatment for Bellis perennis, Cardamine pratensis, Cynosurus critatus and Ranunculus ficaria. When the response of ultraviolet A (UV-A) treated plants were compared with those of the UV-B+A, differences were found which varied according to the species and parameter investigated. To further understand the growth responses of the UV-A treatment and their relationship to the UV-B responses polychromatic action spectra in the natural environment was employed B perennis had an action maximum in the UV B (280-315 nm) while C cristatus demonstrates no action in the UV-B but action in the UV-A region (315-400 nm.). To enable further explanation of the effects of elevated UV radiation on the meadow plants Arabidopsis thaliana ecotypes and mutants were investigated. A thaliana ecotypes dry weight accumulation was found to respond differently to the UV treatments. UV B+A treatment was found to inhibit dry weight accumulation in most ecotypes. When UV B+A induced inhibition was expressed in terms of ambient growth rate for each ecotype a linear relationship could be derived. The higher the growth rate the more susceptible the ecotype was to UV-B+A inhibition. The pertinence of the UV-A treatment and UV protocol is discussed. It is suggested that UV responses could alter the diversity of the meadow equilibrium
Dynamic Variables Fail to Predict Fluid Responsiveness in an Animal Model With Pericardial Effusion.
Broch, Ole; Renner, Jochen; Meybohm, Patrick; Albrecht, Martin; Höcker, Jan; Haneya, Assad; Steinfath, Markus; Bein, Berthold; Gruenewald, Matthias
2016-10-01
The reliability of dynamic and volumetric variables of fluid responsiveness in the presence of pericardial effusion is still elusive. The aim of the present study was to investigate their predictive power in a porcine model with hemodynamic relevant pericardial effusion. A single-center animal investigation. Twelve German domestic pigs. Pigs were studied before and during pericardial effusion. Instrumentation included a pulmonary artery catheter and a transpulmonary thermodilution catheter in the femoral artery. Hemodynamic variables like cardiac output (COPAC) and stroke volume (SVPAC) derived from pulmonary artery catheter, global end-diastolic volume (GEDV), stroke volume variation (SVV), and pulse-pressure variation (PPV) were obtained. At baseline, SVV, PPV, GEDV, COPAC, and SVPAC reliably predicted fluid responsiveness (area under the curve 0.81 [p = 0.02], 0.82 [p = 0.02], 0.74 [p = 0.07], 0.74 [p = 0.07], 0.82 [p = 0.02]). After establishment of pericardial effusion the predictive power of dynamic variables was impaired and only COPAC and SVPAC and GEDV allowed significant prediction of fluid responsiveness (area under the curve 0.77 [p = 0.04], 0.76 [p = 0.05], 0.83 [p = 0.01]) with clinically relevant changes in threshold values. In this porcine model, hemodynamic relevant pericardial effusion abolished the ability of dynamic variables to predict fluid responsiveness. COPAC, SVPAC, and GEDV enabled prediction, but their threshold values were significantly changed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ulsh, B.A.; Miller, S.M.; Mallory, F.F.; Mitchel, R.E.J.; Morrison, D.P.; Boreham, D.R.
2004-01-01
In the studies reported here, the micronucleus assay, a common cytogenetic technique, was used to examine the dose-responses in fibroblasts from three ungulate species (white-tailed deer, woodland caribou, and Indian muntjac) exposed to high doses of ionizing radiation (1-4 Gy of 60 Co gamma radiation). This assay was also used to examine the effects of exposure to low doses (1-100 mGy) typical of what these species experience in a year from natural and anthropogenic environmental sources. An adaptive response, defined as the induction of resistance to a stressor by a prior exposure to a small 'adapting' stress, was observed after exposure to low doses. This work indicates that very small doses are protective for the endpoint examined. The same level of protection was seen at all adapting doses, including 1 radiation track per cell, the lowest possible cellular dose. These results are consistent with other studies in a wide variety of organisms that demonstrate a protective effect of low doses at both cellular and whole-organism levels. This implies that environmental regulations predicated on the idea that even the smallest dose of radiation carries a quantifiable risk of direct adverse consequences to the exposed organism require further examination. Cytogenetic assays provide affordable and feasible biological effects-based alternatives that are more biologically relevant than traditional contaminant concentration-based radioecological risk assessment
Phylogenetic responses of forest trees to global change.
Senior, John K; Schweitzer, Jennifer A; O'Reilly-Wapstra, Julianne; Chapman, Samantha K; Steane, Dorothy; Langley, Adam; Bailey, Joseph K
2013-01-01
In a rapidly changing biosphere, approaches to understanding the ecology and evolution of forest species will be critical to predict and mitigate the effects of anthropogenic global change on forest ecosystems. Utilizing 26 forest species in a factorial experiment with two levels each of atmospheric CO2 and soil nitrogen, we examined the hypothesis that phylogeny would influence plant performance in response to elevated CO2 and nitrogen fertilization. We found highly idiosyncratic responses at the species level. However, significant, among-genetic lineage responses were present across a molecularly determined phylogeny, indicating that past evolutionary history may have an important role in the response of whole genetic lineages to future global change. These data imply that some genetic lineages will perform well and that others will not, depending upon the environmental context.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Peng, Chuan; Liu, Long-Zhong; Zheng, Wei [Department of Ultrasound, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center of Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, 651 Dongfeng Road East, Guangzhou, 510060 (China); Xie, Yan-Jun [Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Zhongcun Town hospital, 140 Renmin Road, Zhongcun Town, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511400 (China); Xiong, Yong-Hong; Li, An-Hua [Department of Ultrasound, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center of Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, 651 Dongfeng Road East, Guangzhou, 510060 (China); Pei, Xiao-Qing, E-mail: peixq@sysucc.org.cn [Department of Ultrasound, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center of Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, 651 Dongfeng Road East, Guangzhou, 510060 (China)
2016-11-15
Highlights: • We assessed the clinical value of quantitative CEUS for prediction of cervical tumor perfusion response to NACT. • IMAX, RT, and TTP changed significantly after one NACT cycle. • Pre-treatment IMAX positively correlated with the absolute and percentage changes in all cervical tumor IMAX after NACT. • Pre-treatment IMAX may be predictive of NACT perfusion response in cervical tumor. - Abstract: Objective: To evaluate the feasibility of quantitative contrast-enhanced ultrasonography (CEUS) for predicting and assessing cervical tumor response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT). Methods: Thirty-eight cases with stage IB2 or IIA cervical cancer were studied using CEUS before and after one cycle of NACT. The quantitative CEUS parameters maximum intensity (IMAX), rise time (RT), time to peak (TTP), and mean transit time (MTT) were compared between cervical tumors and myometrium (reference zone) using Sonoliver software. Absolute and relative changes in quantitative CEUS parameters were also compared among complete response, partial response, and non-responsive groups. Correlations between pre-treatment IMAX and changes in quantitative parameters were assessed after one cycle of NACT. Results: There were significant changes in cervical tumor IMAX (P < 0.001), RT (P < 0.05), and TTP (P < 0.05) after one cycle of NACT. According to the Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumors guidelines, the enrollments were divided into complete response, partial response, stable disease and progressive disease groups. There were no significant differences in quantitative CEUS parameters among complete response, partial response, and non-responsive groups (P > 0.05). In the stable disease group (n = 17), cervical tumor IMAX, RT, and TTP decreased significantly after NACT (P < 0.001). The absolute and percentage changes in IMAX were positively correlated with pre-treatment IMAX in all 38 patients (r = 0.576, P < 0.001 and r = 0.429, P < 0.001). Conclusion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chen, Pei-Chun; Chen, Yen-Ching; Lai, Liang-Chuan; Tsai, Mong-Hsun; Chen, Shin-Kuang; Yang, Pei-Wen; Lee, Yung-Chie; Hsiao, Chuhsing K.; Lee, Jang-Ming; Chuang, Eric Y.
2012-01-01
Purpose: To identify germline polymorphisms to predict concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CCRT) response in esophageal cancer patients. Materials and Methods: A total of 139 esophageal cancer patients treated with CCRT (cisplatin-based chemotherapy combined with 40 Gy of irradiation) and subsequent esophagectomy were recruited at the National Taiwan University Hospital between 1997 and 2008. After excluding confounding factors (i.e., females and patients aged ≥70 years), 116 patients were enrolled to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with specific CCRT responses. Genotyping arrays and mass spectrometry were used sequentially to determine germline polymorphisms from blood samples. These polymorphisms remain stable throughout disease progression, unlike somatic mutations from tumor tissues. Two-stage design and additive genetic models were adopted in this study. Results: From the 26 SNPs identified in the first stage, 2 SNPs were found to be significantly associated with CCRT response in the second stage. Single nucleotide polymorphism rs16863886, located between SGPP2 and FARSB on chromosome 2q36.1, was significantly associated with a 3.93-fold increase in pathologic complete response to CCRT (95% confidence interval 1.62–10.30) under additive models. Single nucleotide polymorphism rs4954256, located in ZRANB3 on chromosome 2q21.3, was associated with a 3.93-fold increase in pathologic complete response to CCRT (95% confidence interval 1.57–10.87). The predictive accuracy for CCRT response was 71.59% with these two SNPs combined. Conclusions: This is the first study to identify germline polymorphisms with a high accuracy for predicting CCRT response in the treatment of esophageal cancer.
Mendivelso, Hooz A; Camarero, J Julio; Royo Obregón, Oriol; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Toledo, Marisol
2013-01-01
A seasonal period of water deficit characterizes tropical dry forests (TDFs). There, sympatric tree species exhibit a diversity of growth rates, functional traits, and responses to drought, suggesting that each species may possess different strategies to grow under different conditions of water availability. The evaluation of the long-term growth responses to changes in the soil water balance should provide an understanding of how and when coexisting tree species respond to water deficit in TDFs. Furthermore, such differential growth responses may be linked to functional traits related to water storage and conductance. We used dendrochronology and climate data to retrospectively assess how the radial growth of seven coexisting deciduous tree species responded to the seasonal soil water balance in a Bolivian TDF. Linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the relationships between basal area increment and seasonal water balance. We related these relationships with wood density and sapwood production to assess if they affect the growth responses to climate. The growth of all species responded positively to water balance during the wet season, but such responses differed among species as a function of their wood density. For instance, species with a strong growth response to water availability averaged a low wood density which may facilitate the storage of water in the stem. By contrast, species with very dense wood were those whose growth was less sensitive to water availability. Coexisting tree species thus show differential growth responses to changes in soil water balance during the wet season. Our findings also provide a link between wood density, a trait related to the ability of trees to store water in the stem, and wood formation in response to water availability.
Rapid response of a marine mammal species to holocene climate and habitat change.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mark de Bruyn
2009-07-01
Full Text Available Environmental change drives demographic and evolutionary processes that determine diversity within and among species. Tracking these processes during periods of change reveals mechanisms for the establishment of populations and provides predictive data on response to potential future impacts, including those caused by anthropogenic climate change. Here we show how a highly mobile marine species responded to the gain and loss of new breeding habitat. Southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, remains were found along the Victoria Land Coast (VLC in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, 2,500 km from the nearest extant breeding site on Macquarie Island (MQ. This habitat was released after retreat of the grounded ice sheet in the Ross Sea Embayment 7,500-8,000 cal YBP, and is within the range of modern foraging excursions from the MQ colony. Using ancient mtDNA and coalescent models, we tracked the population dynamics of the now extinct VLC colony and the connectivity between this and extant breeding sites. We found a clear expansion signal in the VLC population approximately 8,000 YBP, followed by directional migration away from VLC and the loss of diversity at approximately 1,000 YBP, when sea ice is thought to have expanded. Our data suggest that VLC seals came initially from MQ and that some returned there once the VLC habitat was lost, approximately 7,000 years later. We track the founder-extinction dynamics of a population from inception to extinction in the context of Holocene climate change and present evidence that an unexpectedly diverse, differentiated breeding population was founded from a distant source population soon after habitat became available.
Rapid response of a marine mammal species to holocene climate and habitat change.
de Bruyn, Mark; Hall, Brenda L; Chauke, Lucas F; Baroni, Carlo; Koch, Paul L; Hoelzel, A Rus
2009-07-01
Environmental change drives demographic and evolutionary processes that determine diversity within and among species. Tracking these processes during periods of change reveals mechanisms for the establishment of populations and provides predictive data on response to potential future impacts, including those caused by anthropogenic climate change. Here we show how a highly mobile marine species responded to the gain and loss of new breeding habitat. Southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, remains were found along the Victoria Land Coast (VLC) in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, 2,500 km from the nearest extant breeding site on Macquarie Island (MQ). This habitat was released after retreat of the grounded ice sheet in the Ross Sea Embayment 7,500-8,000 cal YBP, and is within the range of modern foraging excursions from the MQ colony. Using ancient mtDNA and coalescent models, we tracked the population dynamics of the now extinct VLC colony and the connectivity between this and extant breeding sites. We found a clear expansion signal in the VLC population approximately 8,000 YBP, followed by directional migration away from VLC and the loss of diversity at approximately 1,000 YBP, when sea ice is thought to have expanded. Our data suggest that VLC seals came initially from MQ and that some returned there once the VLC habitat was lost, approximately 7,000 years later. We track the founder-extinction dynamics of a population from inception to extinction in the context of Holocene climate change and present evidence that an unexpectedly diverse, differentiated breeding population was founded from a distant source population soon after habitat became available.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mu, Yunsong; Wu, Fengchang; Chen, Cheng; Liu, Yuedan; Zhao, Xiaoli; Haiqing Liao; Giesy, John P.
2014-01-01
Criteria continuous concentrations (CCCs) are useful for describing chronic exposure to pollutants and setting water quality standards to protect aquatic life. However, because of financial, practical, or ethical restrictions on toxicity testing, few data are available to derive CCCs. In this study, CCCs for 34 metals or metalloids were derived using quantitative ion character-activity relationships–species sensitivity distributions (QICAR–SSD) and the final acute-chronic ratio (FACR) method. The results showed that chronic toxic potencies were correlated with several physico-chemical properties among eight species chosen, where the softness index was the most predictive characteristic. Predicted CCCs for most of the metals, except for Lead and Iron, were within a range of 10-fold of values recommended by the U.S. EPA. The QICAR–SSD model was superior to the FACR method for prediction of data-poor metals. This would have significance for predicting toxic potencies and criteria thresholds of more metals or metalloids. - Highlights: • We investigate relationships between σp and log-NOEC in eight species. • The QICAR–SSD model, FACR, and CMC/CCC were used to predict CCCs. • They are as a supplement to screening for toxicities, criteria and standards. - CCCs for 34 metals/metalloids were predicted by use of QICAR–SSD model and FACR method
Prediction of treatment response and metastatic disease in soft tissue sarcoma
Farhidzadeh, Hamidreza; Zhou, Mu; Goldgof, Dmitry B.; Hall, Lawrence O.; Raghavan, Meera.; Gatenby, Robert A.
2014-03-01
Soft tissue sarcomas (STS) are a heterogenous group of malignant tumors comprised of more than 50 histologic subtypes. Based on spatial variations of the tumor, predictions of the development of necrosis in response to therapy as well as eventual progression to metastatic disease are made. Optimization of treatment, as well as management of therapy-related side effects, may be improved using progression information earlier in the course of therapy. Multimodality pre- and post-gadolinium enhanced magnetic resonance images (MRI) were taken before and after treatment for 30 patients. Regional variations in the tumor bed were measured quantitatively. The voxel values from the tumor region were used as features and a fuzzy clustering algorithm was used to segment the tumor into three spatial regions. The regions were given labels of high, intermediate and low based on the average signal intensity of pixels from the post-contrast T1 modality. These spatially distinct regions were viewed as essential meta-features to predict the response of the tumor to therapy based on necrosis (dead tissue in tumor bed) and metastatic disease (spread of tumor to sites other than primary). The best feature was the difference in the number of pixels in the highest intensity regions of tumors before and after treatment. This enabled prediction of patients with metastatic disease and lack of positive treatment response (i.e. less necrosis). The best accuracy, 73.33%, was achieved by a Support Vector Machine in a leave-one-out cross validation on 30 cases predicting necrosis treatment and metastasis.
Involvement of oxygen reactive species in the cellular response of carcinoma cells to irradiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tulard, A.
2004-06-01
After a presentation of oxygen reactive species and their sources, the author describes the enzymatic and non-enzymatic anti-oxidative defenses, the physiological roles of oxygen reactive species, the oxidative stress, the water radiolysis, the anti-oxidative enzymes and the effects of ionizing radiations. The author then reports an investigation on the contribution of oxygen reactive species in the cellular response to irradiation, and an investigation on the influence of the breathing chain on the persistence of a radio-induced oxidative stress. He also reports a research on molecular mechanisms involved in the cellular radio-sensitivity
Response of an endangered tree species from Caatinga to mycorrhization and phosphorus fertilization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
João Ricardo Gonçalves de Oliveira
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Schinopsis brasiliensis is an endangered tree species found in the Caatinga biome. It presents a characteristic slow development and difficult propagation, although it has been traditionally exploited in the region. Application of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF and phosphorus (P fertilization may be beneficial to S. brasiliensis development at the seedling stage, which at the same time may help species conservation and the recovery of degraded areas in the Caatinga biome. We assessed the response of S. brasiliensis to AMF inoculation (Claroideoglomus etunicatum and Acaulospora longula and P fertilization (0, 12, 24, and 48 mg dm−3 addition of P2O5. S. brasiliensis responded positively to both AMF inoculation and P fertilization. At low P concentrations, the inoculated plants showed higher leaf area and enhanced vegetative development, nutrient content and biomass production compared with non-inoculated plants. Conversely, increasing levels of P fertilization decreased the level of mycorrhizal colonization, plant responsiveness to inoculation, and spore production in C. etunicatum. Thus, P concentrations were able to influence the response of S. brasiliensis to mycorrhization and responsiveness to increased mycorrhization with the decrease in P availability. These results showed that mycorrhizal symbiosis plays an essential role in the development of S. brasiliensis.
Schiariti, M; Puddu, P E; Rouet, R
1994-06-01
Guinea-pig ventricular myocardium was partly exposed to normal Tyrode's superfusion and partly to altered conditions (using modified Tyrode's solution) set to simulate acute myocardial ischemia (PO2 80 +/- 10 mmHg; no glucose; pH 7.00 +/- 0.05; K+ 12 mM). Using a double-chamber tissue bath and standard microelectrode technique, the occurrence of spontaneous repetitive responses was investigated during simulated ischemia (occlusion) and after reperfusing the previously ischemic superfused tissue with normal Tyrode's solution (reperfusion). In 62 experiments (42 animals) the effects of: (1) duration of simulated ischemia (1321 +/- 435 s), (2) stimulation rate (1002 +/- 549 ms) and (3) number of successive simulated ischemic periods (occlusions) (1.58 +/- 0.92) on: (1) resting membrane potential, (2) action potential amplitude, (3) duration of 50 and 90% action potentials and (4) maximal upstroke velocity of action potential were studied. All variables were considered as gradients (delta) between normal and ischemic tissue. Both during occlusion and upon reperfusion, spontaneous repetitive responses were coded as single, couplets, salvos (three to nine and > 10) or total spontaneous repetitive responses (coded present when at least one of the above-mentioned types was seen). The incidence of total spontaneous repetitive responses was 31% (19/62) on occlusion and 85% (53/62) upon reperfusion. Cox's models (forced and stepwise) were used to predict multivariately the occurrence of arrhythmic events considered as both total spontaneous repetitive responses and as separate entities. These models were applicable since continuous monitoring of the experiments enabled exact timing of spontaneous repetitive response onset during both occlusion and reperfusion. In predicting reperfusion spontaneous repetitive responses, total spontaneous repetitive responses and blocks observed during the occlusion period were also considered. Total occlusion spontaneous repetitive responses
Epithelial cell pro-inflammatory cytokine response differs across dental plaque bacterial species.
Stathopoulou, Panagiota G; Benakanakere, Manjunatha R; Galicia, Johnah C; Kinane, Denis F
2010-01-01
The dental plaque is comprised of numerous bacterial species, which may or may not be pathogenic. Human gingival epithelial cells (HGECs) respond to perturbation by various bacteria of the dental plaque by production of different levels of inflammatory cytokines, which is a putative reflection of their virulence. The aim of the current study was to determine responses in terms of interleukin (IL)-1beta, IL-6, IL-8 and IL-10 secretion induced by Porphyromonas gingivalis, Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Fusobacterium nucleatum and Streptococcus gordonii in order to gauge their virulence potential. HGECs were challenged with the four bacterial species, live or heat killed, at various multiplicity of infections and the elicited IL-1beta, IL-6, IL-8 and IL-10 responses were assayed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Primary HGECs challenged with live P. gingivalis produced high levels of IL-1beta, while challenge with live A. actinomycetemcomitans gave high levels of IL-8. The opportunistic pathogen F. nucleatum induces the highest levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines, while the commensal S. gordonii is the least stimulatory. We conclude that various dental plaque biofilm bacteria induce different cytokine response profiles in primary HGECs that may reflect their individual virulence or commensal status.
Jiang, Yuan; Zhang, Wentao; Wang, Mingchang; Kang, Muyi; Dong, Manyu
2014-01-01
North-Central China is a region in which the air temperature has clearly increased for several decades. Picea meyeri and Larix principis-rupprechtii are the most dominant co-occurring tree species within the cold coniferous forest belt ranging vertically from 1800 m to 2800 m a.s.l. in this region. Based on a tree-ring analysis of 292 increment cores sampled from 146 trees at different elevations, this study aimed to examine if the radial growth of the two species in response to climate is similar, whether the responses are consistent along altitudinal gradients and which species might be favored in the future driven by the changing climate. The results indicated the following: (1) The two species grew in different rhythms at low and high elevation respectively; (2) Both species displayed inconsistent relationships between radial growth and climate data along altitudinal gradients. The correlation between radial growth and the monthly mean temperature in the spring or summer changed from negative at low elevation into positive at high elevation, whereas those between the radial growth and the total monthly precipitation displayed a change from positive into negative along the elevation gradient. These indicate the different influences of the horizontal climate and vertical mountainous climate on the radial growth of the two species; (3) The species-dependent different response to climate in radial growth appeared mainly in autumn of the previous year. The radial growth of L. principis-rupprechtii displayed negative responses both to temperature and to precipitation in the previous September, October or November, which was not observed in the radial growth of P. meyeri. (4) The radial growth of both species will tend to be increased at high elevation and limited at low elevation, and L. principis-rupprechtii might be more favored in the future, if the temperature keeps rising.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yuan Jiang
Full Text Available North-Central China is a region in which the air temperature has clearly increased for several decades. Picea meyeri and Larix principis-rupprechtii are the most dominant co-occurring tree species within the cold coniferous forest belt ranging vertically from 1800 m to 2800 m a.s.l. in this region. Based on a tree-ring analysis of 292 increment cores sampled from 146 trees at different elevations, this study aimed to examine if the radial growth of the two species in response to climate is similar, whether the responses are consistent along altitudinal gradients and which species might be favored in the future driven by the changing climate. The results indicated the following: (1 The two species grew in different rhythms at low and high elevation respectively; (2 Both species displayed inconsistent relationships between radial growth and climate data along altitudinal gradients. The correlation between radial growth and the monthly mean temperature in the spring or summer changed from negative at low elevation into positive at high elevation, whereas those between the radial growth and the total monthly precipitation displayed a change from positive into negative along the elevation gradient. These indicate the different influences of the horizontal climate and vertical mountainous climate on the radial growth of the two species; (3 The species-dependent different response to climate in radial growth appeared mainly in autumn of the previous year. The radial growth of L. principis-rupprechtii displayed negative responses both to temperature and to precipitation in the previous September, October or November, which was not observed in the radial growth of P. meyeri. (4 The radial growth of both species will tend to be increased at high elevation and limited at low elevation, and L. principis-rupprechtii might be more favored in the future, if the temperature keeps rising.
Within-species patterns challenge our understanding of the leaf economics spectrum.
Anderegg, Leander D L; Berner, Logan T; Badgley, Grayson; Sethi, Meera L; Law, Beverly E; HilleRisLambers, Janneke
2018-05-01
The utility of plant functional traits for predictive ecology relies on our ability to interpret trait variation across multiple taxonomic and ecological scales. Using extensive data sets of trait variation within species, across species and across communities, we analysed whether and at what scales leaf economics spectrum (LES) traits show predicted trait-trait covariation. We found that most variation in LES traits is often, but not universally, at high taxonomic levels (between families or genera in a family). However, we found that trait covariation shows distinct taxonomic scale dependence, with some trait correlations showing opposite signs within vs. across species. LES traits responded independently to environmental gradients within species, with few shared environmental responses across traits or across scales. We conclude that, at small taxonomic scales, plasticity may obscure or reverse the broad evolutionary linkages between leaf traits, meaning that variation in LES traits cannot always be interpreted as differences in resource use strategy. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.
Fortini, Lucas B.; Schubert, Olivia
2017-01-01
As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By instead defining vulnerability as the degree to which a species is unable to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., toleration of projected changes, migration to new climate-compatible areas, enduring in microrefugia, and evolutionary adaptation), we can bring VAs into the realm of ecological science without applying borrowed abstract concepts that have consistently challenged species-centric research and management. This response-based framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change allows better integration of relevant ecological data and past research, yielding results with much clearer implications for conservation and research prioritization.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hooz A Mendivelso
Full Text Available A seasonal period of water deficit characterizes tropical dry forests (TDFs. There, sympatric tree species exhibit a diversity of growth rates, functional traits, and responses to drought, suggesting that each species may possess different strategies to grow under different conditions of water availability. The evaluation of the long-term growth responses to changes in the soil water balance should provide an understanding of how and when coexisting tree species respond to water deficit in TDFs. Furthermore, such differential growth responses may be linked to functional traits related to water storage and conductance. We used dendrochronology and climate data to retrospectively assess how the radial growth of seven coexisting deciduous tree species responded to the seasonal soil water balance in a Bolivian TDF. Linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the relationships between basal area increment and seasonal water balance. We related these relationships with wood density and sapwood production to assess if they affect the growth responses to climate. The growth of all species responded positively to water balance during the wet season, but such responses differed among species as a function of their wood density. For instance, species with a strong growth response to water availability averaged a low wood density which may facilitate the storage of water in the stem. By contrast, species with very dense wood were those whose growth was less sensitive to water availability. Coexisting tree species thus show differential growth responses to changes in soil water balance during the wet season. Our findings also provide a link between wood density, a trait related to the ability of trees to store water in the stem, and wood formation in response to water availability.
Mendivelso, Hooz A.; Camarero, J. Julio; Royo Obregón, Oriol; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Toledo, Marisol
2013-01-01
A seasonal period of water deficit characterizes tropical dry forests (TDFs). There, sympatric tree species exhibit a diversity of growth rates, functional traits, and responses to drought, suggesting that each species may possess different strategies to grow under different conditions of water availability. The evaluation of the long-term growth responses to changes in the soil water balance should provide an understanding of how and when coexisting tree species respond to water deficit in TDFs. Furthermore, such differential growth responses may be linked to functional traits related to water storage and conductance. We used dendrochronology and climate data to retrospectively assess how the radial growth of seven coexisting deciduous tree species responded to the seasonal soil water balance in a Bolivian TDF. Linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify the relationships between basal area increment and seasonal water balance. We related these relationships with wood density and sapwood production to assess if they affect the growth responses to climate. The growth of all species responded positively to water balance during the wet season, but such responses differed among species as a function of their wood density. For instance, species with a strong growth response to water availability averaged a low wood density which may facilitate the storage of water in the stem. By contrast, species with very dense wood were those whose growth was less sensitive to water availability. Coexisting tree species thus show differential growth responses to changes in soil water balance during the wet season. Our findings also provide a link between wood density, a trait related to the ability of trees to store water in the stem, and wood formation in response to water availability. PMID:24116001
Ellis, J.; Ysebaert, T.; Hume, T.; Norkko, A.; Bult, T.; Herman, P.M.J.; Thrush, S.; Oldman, J.
2006-01-01
There is a growing need to predict ecological responses to long-term habitat change. However, statistical models for marine soft-substratum ecosystems are limited, and consequently there is a need for the development of such models. In order to assess the utility of statistical modelling approaches
Prediction of psilocybin response in healthy volunteers.
Studerus, Erich; Gamma, Alex; Kometer, Michael; Vollenweider, Franz X
2012-01-01
Responses to hallucinogenic drugs, such as psilocybin, are believed to be critically dependent on the user's personality, current mood state, drug pre-experiences, expectancies, and social and environmental variables. However, little is known about the order of importance of these variables and their effect sizes in comparison to drug dose. Hence, this study investigated the effects of 24 predictor variables, including age, sex, education, personality traits, drug pre-experience, mental state before drug intake, experimental setting, and drug dose on the acute response to psilocybin. The analysis was based on the pooled data of 23 controlled experimental studies involving 409 psilocybin administrations to 261 healthy volunteers. Multiple linear mixed effects models were fitted for each of 15 response variables. Although drug dose was clearly the most important predictor for all measured response variables, several non-pharmacological variables significantly contributed to the effects of psilocybin. Specifically, having a high score in the personality trait of Absorption, being in an emotionally excitable and active state immediately before drug intake, and having experienced few psychological problems in past weeks were most strongly associated with pleasant and mystical-type experiences, whereas high Emotional Excitability, low age, and an experimental setting involving positron emission tomography most strongly predicted unpleasant and/or anxious reactions to psilocybin. The results confirm that non-pharmacological variables play an important role in the effects of psilocybin.
Prediction of psilocybin response in healthy volunteers.
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Erich Studerus
Full Text Available Responses to hallucinogenic drugs, such as psilocybin, are believed to be critically dependent on the user's personality, current mood state, drug pre-experiences, expectancies, and social and environmental variables. However, little is known about the order of importance of these variables and their effect sizes in comparison to drug dose. Hence, this study investigated the effects of 24 predictor variables, including age, sex, education, personality traits, drug pre-experience, mental state before drug intake, experimental setting, and drug dose on the acute response to psilocybin. The analysis was based on the pooled data of 23 controlled experimental studies involving 409 psilocybin administrations to 261 healthy volunteers. Multiple linear mixed effects models were fitted for each of 15 response variables. Although drug dose was clearly the most important predictor for all measured response variables, several non-pharmacological variables significantly contributed to the effects of psilocybin. Specifically, having a high score in the personality trait of Absorption, being in an emotionally excitable and active state immediately before drug intake, and having experienced few psychological problems in past weeks were most strongly associated with pleasant and mystical-type experiences, whereas high Emotional Excitability, low age, and an experimental setting involving positron emission tomography most strongly predicted unpleasant and/or anxious reactions to psilocybin. The results confirm that non-pharmacological variables play an important role in the effects of psilocybin.
Species-energy relationship in the deep sea: A test using the Quaternary fossil record
Hunt, G.; Cronin, T. M.; Roy, K.
2005-01-01
Little is known about the processes regulating species richness in deep-sea communities. Here we take advantage of natural experiments involving climate change to test whether predictions of the species-energy hypothesis hold in the deep sea. In addition, we test for the relationship between temperature and species richness predicted by a recent model based on biochemical kinetics of metabolism. Using the deep-sea fossil record of benthic foraminifera and statistical meta-analyses of temperature-richness and productivity-richness relationships in 10 deep-sea cores, we show that temperature but not productivity is a significant predictor of species richness over the past c. 130 000 years. Our results not only show that the temperature-richness relationship in the deep-sea is remarkably similar to that found in terrestrial and shallow marine habitats, but also that species richness tracks temperature change over geological time, at least on scales of c. 100 000 years. Thus, predicting biotic response to global climate change in the deep sea would require better understanding of how temperature regulates the occurrences and geographical ranges of species. ??2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.
Predictive coding of music--brain responses to rhythmic incongruity.
Vuust, Peter; Ostergaard, Leif; Pallesen, Karen Johanne; Bailey, Christopher; Roepstorff, Andreas
2009-01-01
During the last decades, models of music processing in the brain have mainly discussed the specificity of brain modules involved in processing different musical components. We argue that predictive coding offers an explanatory framework for functional integration in musical processing. Further, we provide empirical evidence for such a network in the analysis of event-related MEG-components to rhythmic incongruence in the context of strong metric anticipation. This is seen in a mismatch negativity (MMNm) and a subsequent P3am component, which have the properties of an error term and a subsequent evaluation in a predictive coding framework. There were both quantitative and qualitative differences in the evoked responses in expert jazz musicians compared with rhythmically unskilled non-musicians. We propose that these differences trace a functional adaptation and/or a genetic pre-disposition in experts which allows for a more precise rhythmic prediction.
Incremental-hinge piping analysis methods for inelastic seismic response prediction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jaquay, K.R.; Castle, W.R.; Larson, J.E.
1989-01-01
This paper proposes nonlinear seismic response prediction methods for nuclear piping systems based on simplified plastic hinge analyses. The simplified plastic hinge analyses utilize an incremental series of flat response spectrum loadings and replace yielded components with hinge elements when a predefined hinge moment is reached. These hinge moment values, developed by Rodabaugh, result in inelastic energy dissipation of the same magnitude as observed in seismic tests of piping components. Two definitions of design level equivalent loads are employed: one conservatively based on the peaks of the design acceleration response spectra, the other based on inelastic frequencies determined by the method of Krylov and Bogolyuboff recently extended by Lazzeri to piping. Both definitions account for piping system inelastic energy dissipation using Newmark-Hall inelastic response spectrum reduction factors and the displacement ductility results of the incremental-hinge analysis. Two ratchet-fatigue damage models are used: one developed by Rodabaugh that conservatively correlates Markl static fatigue expressions to seismic tests to failure of piping components; the other developed by Severud that uses the ratchet expression of Bree for elbows and Edmunds and Beer for straights, and defines ratchet-fatigue interaction using Coffin's ductility based fatigue equation. Comparisons of predicted behavior versus experimental results are provided for a high-level seismic test of a segment of a representative nuclear plant piping system. (orig.)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Piotr Baranowski
Full Text Available In this paper, thermal (8-13 µm and hyperspectral imaging in visible and near infrared (VNIR and short wavelength infrared (SWIR ranges were used to elaborate a method of early detection of biotic stresses caused by fungal species belonging to the genus Alternaria that were host (Alternaria alternata, Alternaria brassicae, and Alternaria brassicicola and non-host (Alternaria dauci pathogens to oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.. The measurements of disease severity for chosen dates after inoculation were compared to temperature distributions on infected leaves and to averaged reflectance characteristics. Statistical analysis revealed that leaf temperature distributions on particular days after inoculation and respective spectral characteristics, especially in the SWIR range (1000-2500 nm, significantly differed for the leaves inoculated with A. dauci from the other species of Alternaria as well as from leaves of non-treated plants. The significant differences in leaf temperature of the studied Alternaria species were observed in various stages of infection development. The classification experiments were performed on the hyperspectral data of the leaf surfaces to distinguish days after inoculation and Alternaria species. The second-derivative transformation of the spectral data together with back-propagation neural networks (BNNs appeared to be the best combination for classification of days after inoculation (prediction accuracy 90.5% and Alternaria species (prediction accuracy 80.5%.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adugna Abdi Woldesemayat
Full Text Available Crop response to the changing climate and unpredictable effects of global warming with adverse conditions such as drought stress has brought concerns about food security to the fore; crop yield loss is a major cause of concern in this regard. Identification of genes with multiple responses across environmental stresses is the genetic foundation that leads to crop adaptation to environmental perturbations.In this paper, we introduce an integrated approach to assess candidate genes for multiple stress responses across-species. The approach combines ontology based semantic data integration with expression profiling, comparative genomics, phylogenomics, functional gene enrichment and gene enrichment network analysis to identify genes associated with plant stress phenotypes. Five different ontologies, viz., Gene Ontology (GO, Trait Ontology (TO, Plant Ontology (PO, Growth Ontology (GRO and Environment Ontology (EO were used to semantically integrate drought related information.Target genes linked to Quantitative Trait Loci (QTLs controlling yield and stress tolerance in sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L. Moench and closely related species were identified. Based on the enriched GO terms of the biological processes, 1116 sorghum genes with potential responses to 5 different stresses, such as drought (18%, salt (32%, cold (20%, heat (8% and oxidative stress (25% were identified to be over-expressed. Out of 169 sorghum drought responsive QTLs associated genes that were identified based on expression datasets, 56% were shown to have multiple stress responses. On the other hand, out of 168 additional genes that have been evaluated for orthologous pairs, 90% were conserved across species for drought tolerance. Over 50% of identified maize and rice genes were responsive to drought and salt stresses and were co-located within multifunctional QTLs. Among the total identified multi-stress responsive genes, 272 targets were shown to be co-localized within QTLs
Levinson, Amanda R; Speed, Brittany C; Nelson, Brady; Bress, Jennifer N; Hajcak, Greg
2017-03-01
Parenting styles are robust predictors of offspring outcomes, yet little is known about their neural underpinnings. In this study, 44 parent-adolescent dyads (Mage of adolescent = 12.9) completed a laboratory guessing task while EEG was continuously recorded. In the task, each pair member received feedback about their own monetary wins and losses and also observed the monetary wins and losses of the other member of the pair. We examined the association between self-reported parenting style and parents' electrophysiological responses to watching their adolescent winning and losing money, dubbed the observational Reward Positivity (RewP) and observational feedback negativity (FN), respectively. Self-reported authoritarian parenting predicted reductions in parents' observational RewP but not FN. This predictive relationship remained after adjusting for sex of both participants, parents' responsiveness to their own wins, and parental psychopathology. 'Exploratory analyses found that permissive parenting was associated with a blunting of the adolescents' response to their parents' losses'. These findings suggest that parents' rapid neural responses to their child's successes may relate to the harsh parenting behaviors associated with authoritarian parenting. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Predicting post-traumatic stress disorder treatment response in refugees: Multilevel analysis.
Haagen, Joris F G; Ter Heide, F Jackie June; Mooren, Trudy M; Knipscheer, Jeroen W; Kleber, Rolf J
2017-03-01
Given the recent peak in refugee numbers and refugees' high odds of developing post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), finding ways to alleviate PTSD in refugees is of vital importance. However, there are major differences in PTSD treatment response between refugees, the determinants of which are largely unknown. This study aimed at improving PTSD treatment for adult refugees by identifying PTSD treatment response predictors. A prospective longitudinal multilevel modelling design was used to predict PTSD severity scores over time. We analysed data from a randomized controlled trial with pre-, post-, and follow-up measurements of the safety and efficacy of eye movement desensitization and reprocessing and stabilization in asylum seekers and refugees suffering from PTSD. Lack of refugee status, comorbid depression, demographic, trauma-related and treatment-related variables were analysed as potential predictors of PTSD treatment outcome. Treatment outcome data from 72 participants were used. The presence (B = 6.5, p = .03) and severity (B = 6.3, p disorder predicted poor treatment response and explained 39% of the variance between individuals. Refugee patients who suffer from PTSD and severe comorbid depression benefit less from treatment aimed at alleviating PTSD. Results highlight the need for treatment adaptations for PTSD and comorbid severe depression in traumatized refugees, including testing whether initial targeting of severe depressive symptoms increases PTSD treatment effectiveness. There are differences in post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) treatment response between traumatized refugees. Comorbid depressive disorder and depression severity predict poor PTSD response. Refugees with PTSD and severe depression may not benefit from PTSD treatment. Targeting comorbid severe depression before PTSD treatment is warranted. This study did not correct for multiple hypothesis testing. Comorbid depression may differentially impact alternative PTSD treatments
Invasive species unchecked by climate - response
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Burrows, Michael T.; Schoeman, David S.; Duarte, Carlos M.
2012-01-01
environments. This may be particularly true in the world's boreal oceans as melting sea ice facilitates new migratory passages between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Moreover, as the ebb and flow of biodiversity intensifies under anthropogenic climate change, novel climates and communities of species......Hulme points out that observed rates of range expansion by invasive alien species are higher than the median speed of isotherm movement over the past 50 years, which in turn has outpaced the rates of climate-associated range changes of marine and terrestrial species. This is not surprising, given...... of climate-change-induced range shifts between native and alien species are meaningful only after the initial invasive spread has reached a stable range boundary. A focus on regions with high velocities of climate change, and on regions such as the tropics where novel thermal niches are being created, should...
Animal culture impacts species' capacity to realise climate-driven range shifts
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Keith, Sally A.; Bull, Joseph William
2017-01-01
Ecological predictions of how species will shift their geographical distributions under climate change generally consider individuals as machines that respond optimally to changing environmental conditions. However, animals frequently make active behavioural decisions based on imperfect information...... about their external environment, potentially mediated by information transmitted through social learning (i.e. culture). Vertical transmission of culture (between generations) might encourage conservative behaviour, constraining the ability of a species to respond, whilst horizontal transmission...... (within generations) can encourage innovation and so facilitate dynamic responses to a changing environment. We believe that the time is right to unite recent advances in ecological modelling and behavioural understanding to explicitly incorporate the influence of animal culture into future predictions...
Estimating rates of local species extinction, colonization and turnover in animal communities
Nichols, James D.; Boulinier, T.; Hines, J.E.; Pollock, K.H.; Sauer, J.R.
1998-01-01
Species richness has been identified as a useful state variable for conservation and management purposes. Changes in richness over time provide a basis for predicting and evaluating community responses to management, to natural disturbance, and to changes in factors such as community composition (e.g., the removal of a keystone species). Probabilistic capture-recapture models have been used recently to estimate species richness from species count and presence-absence data. These models do not require the common assumption that all species are detected in sampling efforts. We extend this approach to the development of estimators useful for studying the vital rates responsible for changes in animal communities over time; rates of local species extinction, turnover, and colonization. Our approach to estimation is based on capture-recapture models for closed animal populations that permit heterogeneity in detection probabilities among the different species in the sampled community. We have developed a computer program, COMDYN, to compute many of these estimators and associated bootstrap variances. Analyses using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) suggested that the estimators performed reasonably well. We recommend estimators based on probabilistic modeling for future work on community responses to management efforts as well as on basic questions about community dynamics.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Awan, A.; Umar, M.; Khaar, H.T.B.; Kulsoom, A.; Minhas, Z.; Ambreen, S.; Habib, N.; Mumtaz, W.; Habib, F.
2016-01-01
Background: Hepatitis is a major public health problem in Pakistan due to its strong association with liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma. In Pakistan, conventional interferon therapy along with Ribavirin is favoured especially in Government funded programs for treatment of Hepatitis C, over the more expensive Pegylated Interferon and Ribavirin combination therapy as recommended by Pakistan society of Gastroenterology and GI endoscopy due to its favourable results observed in genotype 3 which is the dominant genotype of this region. Objective of our study was to assess the viriological responses with standard interferon therapy and to determine the predictive values of early viriological response (EVR) for Sustained Viriological Response (SVR) in chronic hepatitis C patients treated with standard interferon therapy. Methods: A cross sectional study was conducted on patients with chronic hepatitis C having received standard interferon and ribavirin therapy for six months. EVR and SVR were noted for analysis. Positive and negative predictive values of EVR on SVR were calculated. Results: Out of the total sample (N=3075), 1946 (63.3 percentage) patients were tested for EVR. 1386 (71.2 percentage) were positive while 560 (28.8 percentage) were negative while 516 (16.8 percentage) were tested for SVR. Two hundred and eighty-five (55.2 percentage) were positive while 231 (44.8 percentage) were negative. EVR and SVR tested were N=117. Positive predictive value of EVR on SVR was 67.1 percentage and negative predictive value was 65.8 percentage. Statistically significant association between EVR and SVR was determined with Chi square statistic of 11.8 (p-value <0.0001). Conclusion: EVR is a good predictor of response of patients to standard interferon and ribavirin therapy. In the absence of an EVR, it seems imperative to stop further treatment. Virilogical responses with conventional interferon therapy are comparable to those of pegylated interferon therapy so
Risk avoidance in sympatric large carnivores: reactive or predictive?
Broekhuis, Femke; Cozzi, Gabriele; Valeix, Marion; McNutt, John W; Macdonald, David W
2013-09-01
1. Risks of predation or interference competition are major factors shaping the distribution of species. An animal's response to risk can either be reactive, to an immediate risk, or predictive, based on preceding risk or past experiences. The manner in which animals respond to risk is key in understanding avoidance, and hence coexistence, between interacting species. 2. We investigated whether cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus), known to be affected by predation and competition by lions (Panthera leo) and spotted hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta), respond reactively or predictively to the risks posed by these larger carnivores. 3. We used simultaneous spatial data from Global Positioning System (GPS) radiocollars deployed on all known social groups of cheetahs, lions and spotted hyaenas within a 2700 km(2) study area on the periphery of the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana. The response to risk of encountering lions and spotted hyaenas was explored on three levels: short-term or immediate risk, calculated as the distance to the nearest (contemporaneous) lion or spotted hyaena, long-term risk, calculated as the likelihood of encountering lions and spotted hyaenas based on their cumulative distributions over a 6-month period and habitat-associated risk, quantified by the habitat used by each of the three species. 4. We showed that space and habitat use by cheetahs was similar to that of lions and, to a lesser extent, spotted hyaenas. However, cheetahs avoided immediate risks by positioning themselves further from lions and spotted hyaenas than predicted by a random distribution. 5. Our results suggest that cheetah spatial distribution is a hierarchical process, first driven by resource acquisition and thereafter fine-tuned by predator avoidance; thus suggesting a reactive, rather than a predictive, response to risk. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.
The effects of response cost and species-typical behaviors on a daily time-place learning task.
Deibel, Scott H; Thorpe, Christina M
2013-03-01
Two theories that have been hypothesized to mediate acquisition in daily time-place learning (TPL) tasks were investigated in a free operant daily TPL task: the response cost hypothesis and the species-typical behavior hypothesis. One lever at the end of one of the choice arms of a T-maze provided food in the morning, and 6 h later, a lever in the other choice arm provided food. Four groups were used to assess the effect of two possible sources of response cost: physical effort of the task and costs associated with foraging ecology. One group was used to assess the effect of explicitly allowing for species-typical behaviors. If only first arm choice data were considered, there was little evidence of learning. However, both first press and percentage of presses on the correct lever prior to the first reinforcement revealed evidence of TPL in most rats tested. Unexpectedly, the high response cost groups for both of the proposed sources did not perform better than the low response cost groups. The groups that allowed animals to display species-typical behaviors performed the worst. Skip session probe trials confirmed that the majority of the rats that acquired the task were using a circadian timing strategy. The results from the present study suggest that learning in free operant daily TPL tasks might not be dependent on response cost.
Responses of woody species to spatial and temporal ground water changes in coastal sand dune systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C. Máguas
2011-12-01
Full Text Available In spite of the relative importance of groundwater in costal dune systems, studies concerning the responses of vegetation to ground water (GW availability variations, particularly in Mediterranean regions, are scarce. Thus, the main purpose of this study is to compare the responses of co-occurring species possessing different functional traits, to changes in GW levels (i.e. the lowering of GW levels in a sand dune ecosystem. For that, five sites were established within a 1 km2 area in a meso-mediterranean sand dune ecosystem dominated by a Pinus pinaster forest. Due to natural topographic variability and anthropogenic GW exploitation, substantial variability in depth to GW between sites was found. Under these conditions it was possible to identify the degree of usage and dependence on GW of different plant species (two deep-rooted trees, a drought adapted shrub, a phreatophyte and a non-native woody invader and how GW dependence varied seasonally and between the heterogeneous sites. Results indicated that the plant species had differential responses to changes in GW depth according to specific functional traits (i.e. rooting depth, leaf morphology, and water use strategy. Species comparison revealed that variability in pre-dawn water potential (Ψpre and bulk leaf δ13C was related to site differences in GW use in the deep-rooted (Pinus pinaster, Myrica faya and phreatophyte (Salix repens species. However, such variation was more evident during spring than during summer drought. The exotic invader, Acacia longifolia, which does not possess a very deep root system, presented the largest seasonal variability in Ψpre and bulk leaf δ13C. In contrast, the response of Corema album, an endemic understory drought-adapted shrub, seemed to be independent of water availability across seasons and sites. Thus, the susceptibility to lowering of GW due to anthropogenic
Shira Barzilay; Zimri S. Yaseen; Zimri S. Yaseen; Mariah Hawes; Bernard Gorman; Rachel Altman; Adriana Foster; Alan Apter; Paul Rosenfield; Igor Galynker; Igor Galynker
2018-01-01
BackgroundMental health professionals have a pivotal role in suicide prevention. However, they also often have intense emotional responses, or countertransference, during encounters with suicidal patients. Previous studies of the Therapist Response Questionnaire-Suicide Form (TRQ-SF), a brief novel measure aimed at probing a distinct set of suicide-related emotional responses to patients found it to be predictive of near-term suicidal behavior among high suicide-risk inpatients. The purpose o...
Johnston, Blair A; Coghill, David; Matthews, Keith; Steele, J Douglas
2015-01-01
Methylphenidate (MPH) is established as the main pharmacological treatment for patients with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Whilst MPH is generally a highly effective treatment, not all patients respond, and some experience adverse reactions. Currently, there is no reliable method to predict how patients will respond, other than by exposure to a trial of medication. In this preliminary study, we sought to investigate whether an accurate predictor of clinical response to methylphenidate could be developed for individual patients, using sociodemographic, clinical and neuropsychological measures. Of the 43 boys with ADHD included in this proof-of-concept study, 30 were classed as responders and 13 as non-responders to MPH, with no significant differences in age nor verbal intelligence quotient (IQ) between the groups. Here we report the application of a multivariate analysis approach to the prediction of clinical response to MPH, which achieved an accuracy of 77% (p = 0.005). The most important variables to the classifier were performance on a 'go/no go' task and comorbid conduct disorder. This preliminary study suggested that further investigation is merited. Achieving a highly significant accuracy of 77% for the prediction of MPH response is an encouraging step towards finding a reliable and clinically useful method that could minimise the number of children needlessly being exposed to MPH. © The Author(s) 2014.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marie-Caroline Lefort
2014-11-01
Full Text Available In the field of invasion ecology, the determination of a species’ environmental tolerance, is a key parameter in the prediction of its potential distribution, particularly in the context of global warming. In poikilothermic species such as insects, temperature is often considered the most important abiotic factor that affects numerous life-history and fitness traits through its effect on metabolic rate. Therefore the response of an insect to challenging temperatures may provide key information as to its climatic and therefore spatial distribution. Variation in the phosphoglucose-6-isomerase (PGI metabolic enzyme-system has been proposed in some insects to underlie their relative fitness, and is recognised as a key enzyme in their thermal adaptation. However, in this context it has not been considered as a potential mechanism contributing to a species invasive cability. The present study aimed to compare the thermal tolerance of an invasive scarabaeid beetle, Costelytra zealandica (White with that of the closely related, and in part sympatrically occurring, congeneric non-invasive species C. brunneum (Broun, and to consider whether any correlation with particular PGI genotypes was apparent. Third instar larvae of each species were exposed to one of three different temperatures (10, 15 and 20 °C over six weeks and their fitness (survival and growth rate measured and PGI phenotyping performed via cellulose acetate electrophoresis. No consistent relationship between PGI genotypes and fitness was detected, suggesting that PGI may not be contributing to the invasion success and pest status of C. zealandica.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lunn, Troels H; Gaarn-Larsen, Lissi; Kehlet, Henrik
2013-01-01
It has been estimated that up to 54% of the variance in postoperative pain experience may be predicted with preoperative pain responses to experimental stimuli, with suprathreshold heat pain as the most consistent test modality. We aimed to explore if 2 heat test paradigms could predict postopera......It has been estimated that up to 54% of the variance in postoperative pain experience may be predicted with preoperative pain responses to experimental stimuli, with suprathreshold heat pain as the most consistent test modality. We aimed to explore if 2 heat test paradigms could predict...... and logistic regressions analyses were carried out including 8 potential preoperative explanatory variables (among these anxiety, depression, preoperative pain and pain catastrophizing) to assess pain response to preoperative heat pain stimulation as independent predictor for postoperative pain. 100 patients...... by the linear and logistic regression analyses, where only anxiety, preoperative pain and pain catastrophizing were significant explanatory variables (but with low R-Squares;0.05-0.08). Pain responses to 2 types of preoperative heat stimuli were not independent clinical relevant predictors for postoperative...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Robert D. Davic
2003-07-01
Full Text Available The concept of the "keystone species" is redefined to allow for the a priori prediction of these species within ecosystems. A keystone species is held to be a strongly interacting species whose top-down effect on species diversity and competition is large relative to its biomass dominance within a functional group. This operational definition links the community importance of keystone species to a specific ecosystem process, e.g., the regulation of species diversity, within functional groups at lower trophic levels that are structured by competition for a limited resource. The a priori prediction of keystone species has applied value for the conservation of natural areas.
Photoactivated toxicity of PAH to endangered fishes and standard laboratory test species
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buckler, D.R.; Mount, D.R.; Tillitt, D.E.
1994-01-01
Polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) have been detected in water and sediment from the San Juan River Basin, located in the Four Corners area of the southwestern US. In addition to possessing extensive oil and gas deposits, the San Juan contains several threatened or endangered fish species such as Colorado squawfish and razorback suckers. Proposed expansion of oil and gas development in the basin has sparked concerns that potential increases in PAH loading may jeopardize these and other native fishes. In response, the authors conducted laboratory exposures of threatened and endangered species to various PAH both with and without accompanying exposure to UV light. As predicted from the literature, exposure to UV light caused a marked photo-activated toxicity response in all species; however, the sensitivity to PAH both with and without UV exposure varied among species and lifestages. Supplemental studies were conducted to evaluate the physiological mechanisms for variation in sensitivity between species and lifestage
Seismic response prediction for cabinets of nuclear power plants by using impact hammer test
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Koo, Ki Young [Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield (United Kingdom); Gook Cho, Sung [JACE KOREA, Gyeonggi-do (Korea, Republic of); Cui, Jintao [Department of Civil Engineering, Kunsan National University, Jeonbuk (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Dookie, E-mail: kim2kie@kunsan.ac.k [Department of Civil Engineering, Kunsan National University, Jeonbuk (Korea, Republic of)
2010-10-15
An effective method to predict the seismic response of electrical cabinets of nuclear power plants is developed. This method consists of three steps: (1) identification of the earthquake-equivalent force based on the idealized lumped-mass system of the cabinet, (2) identification of the state-space equation (SSE) model of the system using input-output measurements from impact hammer tests, and (3) seismic response prediction by calculating the output of the identified SSE model under the identified earthquake-equivalent force. A three-dimensional plate model of cabinet structures is presented for the numerical verification of the proposed method. Experimental validation of the proposed method is carried out on a three-story frame which represents the structure of a cabinet. The SSE model of the frame is accurately identified by impact hammer tests with high fitness values over 85% of the actual frame characteristics. Shaking table tests are performed using El Centro, Kobe, and Northridge earthquakes as input motions and the acceleration responses are measured. The responses of the model under the three earthquakes are predicted and then compared with the measured responses. The predicted and measured responses agree well with each other with fitness values of 65-75%. The proposed method is more advantageous over other methods that are based on finite element (FE) model updating since it is free from FE modeling errors. It will be especially effective for cabinet structures in nuclear power plants where conducting shaking table tests may not be feasible. Limitations of the proposed method are also discussed.
Prediction of electroconvulsive therapy response and remission in major depression : meta-analysis
Diermen, van, Linda; Ameele, van den, Seline; Kamperman, Astrid M.; Sabbe, Bernard G.C.; Vermeulen, Tom; Schrijvers, Didier; Birkenhager, Tom K.
2018-01-01
Abstract: Background Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is considered to be the most effective treatment in severe major depression. The identification of reliable predictors of ECT response could contribute to a more targeted patient selection and consequently increased ECT response rates. Aims To investigate the predictive value of age, depression severity, psychotic and melancholic features for ECT response and remission in major depression. Method A meta-analysis was conducted according to t...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Iris I A Groen
Full Text Available The visual world is complex and continuously changing. Yet, our brain transforms patterns of light falling on our retina into a coherent percept within a few hundred milliseconds. Possibly, low-level neural responses already carry substantial information to facilitate rapid characterization of the visual input. Here, we computationally estimated low-level contrast responses to computer-generated naturalistic images, and tested whether spatial pooling of these responses could predict image similarity at the neural and behavioral level. Using EEG, we show that statistics derived from pooled responses explain a large amount of variance between single-image evoked potentials (ERPs in individual subjects. Dissimilarity analysis on multi-electrode ERPs demonstrated that large differences between images in pooled response statistics are predictive of more dissimilar patterns of evoked activity, whereas images with little difference in statistics give rise to highly similar evoked activity patterns. In a separate behavioral experiment, images with large differences in statistics were judged as different categories, whereas images with little differences were confused. These findings suggest that statistics derived from low-level contrast responses can be extracted in early visual processing and can be relevant for rapid judgment of visual similarity. We compared our results with two other, well- known contrast statistics: Fourier power spectra and higher-order properties of contrast distributions (skewness and kurtosis. Interestingly, whereas these statistics allow for accurate image categorization, they do not predict ERP response patterns or behavioral categorization confusions. These converging computational, neural and behavioral results suggest that statistics of pooled contrast responses contain information that corresponds with perceived visual similarity in a rapid, low-level categorization task.
Groen, Iris I. A.; Ghebreab, Sennay; Lamme, Victor A. F.; Scholte, H. Steven
2012-01-01
The visual world is complex and continuously changing. Yet, our brain transforms patterns of light falling on our retina into a coherent percept within a few hundred milliseconds. Possibly, low-level neural responses already carry substantial information to facilitate rapid characterization of the visual input. Here, we computationally estimated low-level contrast responses to computer-generated naturalistic images, and tested whether spatial pooling of these responses could predict image similarity at the neural and behavioral level. Using EEG, we show that statistics derived from pooled responses explain a large amount of variance between single-image evoked potentials (ERPs) in individual subjects. Dissimilarity analysis on multi-electrode ERPs demonstrated that large differences between images in pooled response statistics are predictive of more dissimilar patterns of evoked activity, whereas images with little difference in statistics give rise to highly similar evoked activity patterns. In a separate behavioral experiment, images with large differences in statistics were judged as different categories, whereas images with little differences were confused. These findings suggest that statistics derived from low-level contrast responses can be extracted in early visual processing and can be relevant for rapid judgment of visual similarity. We compared our results with two other, well- known contrast statistics: Fourier power spectra and higher-order properties of contrast distributions (skewness and kurtosis). Interestingly, whereas these statistics allow for accurate image categorization, they do not predict ERP response patterns or behavioral categorization confusions. These converging computational, neural and behavioral results suggest that statistics of pooled contrast responses contain information that corresponds with perceived visual similarity in a rapid, low-level categorization task. PMID:23093921
Prediction of elastic-plastic response of structural elements subjected to cyclic loading
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
El Haddad, M.H.; Samaan, S.
1985-01-01
A simplified elastic-plastic analysis is developed to predict stress strain and force deformation response of structural metallic elements subjected to irregular cyclic loadings. In this analysis a simple elastic-plastic method for predicting the skeleton force deformation curve is developed. In this method, elastic and fully plastic solutions are first obtained for unknown quantities, such as deflection or local strains. Elastic and fully plastic contributions are then combined to obtain an elastic-plastic solution. The skeleton curve is doubled to establish the shape of the hysteresis loop. The complete force deformation response can therefore be simulated through reversal by reversal in accordance with hysteresis looping and material memory. Several examples of structural elements with various cross sections made from various materials and subjected to irregular cyclic loadings, are analysed. A close agreement is obtained between experimental results found in the literature and present predictions. (orig.)
Prediction of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer: a radiomic study
Wu, Guolin; Fan, Ming; Zhang, Juan; Zheng, Bin; Li, Lihua
2017-03-01
Breast cancer is one of the most malignancies among women in worldwide. Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy (NACT) has gained interest and is increasingly used in treatment of breast cancer in recent years. Therefore, it is necessary to find a reliable non-invasive assessment and prediction method which can evaluate and predict the response of NACT. Recent studies have highlighted the use of MRI for predicting response to NACT. In addition, molecular subtype could also effectively identify patients who are likely have better prognosis in breast cancer. In this study, a radiomic analysis were performed, by extracting features from dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) and immunohistochemistry (IHC) to determine subtypes. A dataset with fifty-seven breast cancer patients were included, all of them received preoperative MRI examination. Among them, 47 patients had complete response (CR) or partial response (PR) and 10 had stable disease (SD) to chemotherapy based on the RECIST criterion. A total of 216 imaging features including statistical characteristics, morphology, texture and dynamic enhancement were extracted from DCE-MRI. In multivariate analysis, the proposed imaging predictors achieved an AUC of 0.923 (P = 0.0002) in leave-one-out crossvalidation. The performance of the classifier increased to 0.960, 0.950 and 0.936 when status of HER2, Luminal A and Luminal B subtypes were added into the statistic model, respectively. The results of this study demonstrated that IHC determined molecular status combined with radiomic features from DCE-MRI could be used as clinical marker that is associated with response to NACT.
Kou, Peng Meng; Pallassana, Narayanan; Bowden, Rebeca; Cunningham, Barry; Joy, Abraham; Kohn, Joachim; Babensee, Julia E.
2011-01-01
Dendritic cells (DCs) play a critical role in orchestrating the host responses to a wide variety of foreign antigens and are essential in maintaining immune tolerance. Distinct biomaterials have been shown to differentially affect the phenotype of DCs, which suggested that biomaterials may be used to modulate immune response towards the biologic component in combination products. The elucidation of biomaterial property-DC phenotype relationships is expected to inform rational design of immuno-modulatory biomaterials. In this study, DC response to a set of 12 polymethacrylates (pMAs) was assessed in terms of surface marker expression and cytokine profile. Principal component analysis (PCA) determined that surface carbon correlated with enhanced DC maturation, while surface oxygen was associated with an immature DC phenotype. Partial square linear regression, a multivariate modeling approach, was implemented and successfully predicted biomaterial-induced DC phenotype in terms of surface marker expression from biomaterial properties with R2prediction = 0.76. Furthermore, prediction of DC phenotype was effective based on only theoretical chemical composition of the bulk polymers with R2prediction = 0.80. These results demonstrated that immune cell response can be predicted from biomaterial properties, and computational models will expedite future biomaterial design and selection. PMID:22136715
Mathiasen, Paula; Premoli, Andrea C
2016-06-01
Current climate change affects the competitive ability and reproductive success of many species, leading to local extinctions, adjustment to novel local conditions by phenotypic plasticity or rapid adaptation, or tracking their optima through range shifts. However, many species have limited ability to expand to suitable areas. Altitudinal gradients, with abrupt changes in abiotic conditions over short distances, represent "natural experiments" for the evaluation of ecological and evolutionary responses under scenarios of climate change. Nothofagus pumilio is the tree species which dominates as pure stands the montane forests of Patagonia. We evaluated the adaptive value of variation in quantitative traits of N. pumilio under contrasting conditions of the altitudinal gradient with a long-term reciprocal transplant experimental design. While high-elevation plants show little response in plant, leaf, and phenological traits to the experimental trials, low-elevation ones show greater plasticity in their responses to changing environments, particularly at high elevation. Our results suggest a relatively reduced potential for evolutionary adaptation of high-elevation genotypes, and a greater evolutionary potential of low-elevation ones. Under global warming scenarios of forest upslope migration, high-elevation variants may be outperformed by low-elevation ones during this process, leading to the local extinction and/or replacement of these genotypes. These results challenge previous models and predictions expected under global warming for altitudinal gradients, on which the leading edge is considered to be the upper treeline forests.
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Moravcová, Lenka; Pyšek, Petr; Jarošík, Vojtěch; Pergl, Jan
2015-01-01
Roč. 10, č. 4 (2015), s. 1-16,no.e0123634 E-ISSN 1932-6203 R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36079G; GA ČR GA206/05/0323 Grant - others:AV ČR(CZ) AP1002 Program:Akademická prémie - Praemium Academiae Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : species traits * prediction * invasiveness Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 3.057, year: 2015
Climate change and species interactions: ways forward.
Angert, Amy L; LaDeau, Shannon L; Ostfeld, Richard S
2013-09-01
With ongoing and rapid climate change, ecologists are being challenged to predict how individual species will change in abundance and distribution, how biotic communities will change in structure and function, and the consequences of these climate-induced changes for ecosystem functioning. It is now well documented that indirect effects of climate change on species abundances and distributions, via climatic effects on interspecific interactions, can outweigh and even reverse the direct effects of climate. However, a clear framework for incorporating species interactions into projections of biological change remains elusive. To move forward, we suggest three priorities for the research community: (1) utilize tractable study systems as case studies to illustrate possible outcomes, test processes highlighted by theory, and feed back into modeling efforts; (2) develop a robust analytical framework that allows for better cross-scale linkages; and (3) determine over what time scales and for which systems prediction of biological responses to climate change is a useful and feasible goal. We end with a list of research questions that can guide future research to help understand, and hopefully mitigate, the negative effects of climate change on biota and the ecosystem services they provide. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rivas-Ubach, Albert [Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington 99354 USA; CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès 08913 Catalonia Spain; Hódar, José A. [Grupo de Ecología Terrestre, Departamento de Biología Animal y Ecología, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, 18071 Granada Spain; Sardans, Jordi [CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès 08913 Catalonia Spain; CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CEAB-CSIC-UAB, Cerdanyola del Vallès 08913 Catalonia Spain; Kyle, Jennifer E. [Biological Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington 99354 USA; Kim, Young-Mo [Biological Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington 99354 USA; Oravec, Michal [Global Change Research Centre, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Bĕlidla 4a CZ-603 00 Brno Czech Republic; Urban, Otmar [Global Change Research Centre, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Bĕlidla 4a CZ-603 00 Brno Czech Republic; Guenther, Alex [Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California 92697 USA; Peñuelas, Josep [CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès 08913 Catalonia Spain; CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CEAB-CSIC-UAB, Cerdanyola del Vallès 08913 Catalonia Spain
2016-06-02
The debate whether the coevolution of plants and insects or macroevolutionary processes (phylogeny) is the main driver determining the arsenal of molecular defensive compounds of plants remains unresolved. Attacks by herbivorous insects affect not only the composition of defensive compounds in plants but the entire metabolome (the set of molecular metabolites), including defensive compounds. Metabolomes are the final products of genotypes and are directly affected by macroevolutionary processes, so closely related species should have similar metabolomic compositions and may respond in similar ways to attacks by folivores. We analyzed the elemental compositions and metabolomes of needles from Pinus pinaster, P. nigra and P. sylvestris to determine if these closely related Pinus species with different coevolutionary histories with the caterpillars of the processionary moth respond similarly to attacks by this lepidopteran. All pines had different metabolomes and metabolic responses to herbivorous attack. The metabolomic variation among the pine species and the responses to folivory reflected their macroevolutionary relationships, with P. pinaster having the most divergent metabolome. The concentrations of phenolic metabolites were generally not higher in the attacked trees, which had lower concentrations of terpenes, suggesting that herbivores avoid individuals with high concentrations of terpenes. Our results suggest that macroevolutionary history plays important roles in the metabolomic responses of these pine species to folivory, but plant-insect coevolution probably constrains those responses. Combinations of different evolutionary factors and trade-offs are likely responsible for the different responses of each species to folivory, which is not necessarily exclusively linked to plant-insect coevolution.
Angelieri, Cintia Camila Silva; Adams-Hosking, Christine; Ferraz, Katia Maria Paschoaletto Micchi de Barros; de Souza, Marcelo Pereira; McAlpine, Clive Alexander
2016-01-01
A mosaic of intact native and human-modified vegetation use can provide important habitat for top predators such as the puma (Puma concolor), avoiding negative effects on other species and ecological processes due to cascade trophic interactions. This study investigates the effects of restoration scenarios on the puma's habitat suitability in the most developed Brazilian region (São Paulo State). Species Distribution Models incorporating restoration scenarios were developed using the species' occurrence information to (1) map habitat suitability of pumas in São Paulo State, Southeast, Brazil; (2) test the relative contribution of environmental variables ecologically relevant to the species habitat suitability and (3) project the predicted habitat suitability to future native vegetation restoration scenarios. The Maximum Entropy algorithm was used (Test AUC of 0.84 ± 0.0228) based on seven environmental non-correlated variables and non-autocorrelated presence-only records (n = 342). The percentage of native vegetation (positive influence), elevation (positive influence) and density of roads (negative influence) were considered the most important environmental variables to the model. Model projections to restoration scenarios reflected the high positive relationship between pumas and native vegetation. These projections identified new high suitability areas for pumas (probability of presence >0.5) in highly deforested regions. High suitability areas were increased from 5.3% to 8.5% of the total State extension when the landscapes were restored for ≥ the minimum native vegetation cover rule (20%) established by the Brazilian Forest Code in private lands. This study highlights the importance of a landscape planning approach to improve the conservation outlook for pumas and other species, including not only the establishment and management of protected areas, but also the habitat restoration on private lands. Importantly, the results may inform environmental
Hiraoka, Yukihiro; Ueda, Hiroaki; Sugimoto, Yukihiro
2009-01-01
Lotus japonicus genes responsive to parasitism by the compatible species Orobanche aegyptiaca and the incompatible species Striga hermonthica were isolated by using the suppression subtractive hybridization (SSH) strategy. O. aegyptiaca and S. hermonthica parasitism specifically induced the expression of genes involved in jasmonic acid (JA) biosynthesis and phytoalexin biosynthesis, respectively. Nodulation-related genes were almost exclusively found among the Orobanche-induced genes. Temporal gene expression analyses revealed that 19 out of the 48 Orobanche-induced genes and 5 out of the 48 Striga-induced genes were up-regulated at 1 dai. Four genes, including putative trypsin protease inhibitor genes, exhibited systemic up-regulation in the host plant parasitized by O. aegyptiaca. On the other hand, S. hermonthica attachment did not induce systemic gene expression.
Temporal Prediction Errors Affect Short-Term Memory Scanning Response Time.
Limongi, Roberto; Silva, Angélica M
2016-11-01
The Sternberg short-term memory scanning task has been used to unveil cognitive operations involved in time perception. Participants produce time intervals during the task, and the researcher explores how task performance affects interval production - where time estimation error is the dependent variable of interest. The perspective of predictive behavior regards time estimation error as a temporal prediction error (PE), an independent variable that controls cognition, behavior, and learning. Based on this perspective, we investigated whether temporal PEs affect short-term memory scanning. Participants performed temporal predictions while they maintained information in memory. Model inference revealed that PEs affected memory scanning response time independently of the memory-set size effect. We discuss the results within the context of formal and mechanistic models of short-term memory scanning and predictive coding, a Bayes-based theory of brain function. We state the hypothesis that our finding could be associated with weak frontostriatal connections and weak striatal activity.
2017-02-01
affecting the function of Fanconi Anemia (FA) genes ( FANCA /B/C/D2/E/F/G/I/J/L/M, PALB2) or DNA damage response genes involved in HR 5 (ATM, ATR...Award Number: W81XWH-10-1-0585 TITLE: A Gene Expression Profile of BRCAness That Predicts for Responsiveness to Platinum and PARP Inhibitors...To) 15 July 2010 – 2 Nov.2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE A Gene Expression Profile of BRCAness That Predicts for Responsiveness to Platinum and PARP
Bellamy, Chloe; Altringham, John
2015-01-01
Conservation increasingly operates at the landscape scale. For this to be effective, we need landscape scale information on species distributions and the environmental factors that underpin them. Species records are becoming increasingly available via data centres and online portals, but they are often patchy and biased. We demonstrate how such data can yield useful habitat suitability models, using bat roost records as an example. We analysed the effects of environmental variables at eight spatial scales (500 m - 6 km) on roost selection by eight bat species (Pipistrellus pipistrellus, P. pygmaeus, Nyctalus noctula, Myotis mystacinus, M. brandtii, M. nattereri, M. daubentonii, and Plecotus auritus) using the presence-only modelling software MaxEnt. Modelling was carried out on a selection of 418 data centre roost records from the Lake District National Park, UK. Target group pseudoabsences were selected to reduce the impact of sampling bias. Multi-scale models, combining variables measured at their best performing spatial scales, were used to predict roosting habitat suitability, yielding models with useful predictive abilities. Small areas of deciduous woodland consistently increased roosting habitat suitability, but other habitat associations varied between species and scales. Pipistrellus were positively related to built environments at small scales, and depended on large-scale woodland availability. The other, more specialist, species were highly sensitive to human-altered landscapes, avoiding even small rural towns. The strength of many relationships at large scales suggests that bats are sensitive to habitat modifications far from the roost itself. The fine resolution, large extent maps will aid targeted decision-making by conservationists and planners. We have made available an ArcGIS toolbox that automates the production of multi-scale variables, to facilitate the application of our methods to other taxa and locations. Habitat suitability modelling has the
XBeach-G: a tool for predicting gravel barrier response to extreme storm conditions
Masselink, Gerd; Poate, Tim; McCall, Robert; Roelvink, Dano; Russell, Paul; Davidson, Mark
2014-05-01
Gravel beaches protect low-lying back-barrier regions from flooding during storm events and their importance to society is widely acknowledged. Unfortunately, breaching and extensive storm damage has occurred at many gravel sites and this is likely to increase as a result of sea-level rise and enhanced storminess due to climate change. Limited scientific guidance is currently available to provide beach managers with operational management tools to predict the response of gravel beaches to storms. The New Understanding and Prediction of Storm Impacts on Gravel beaches (NUPSIG) project aims to improve our understanding of storm impacts on gravel coastal environments and to develop a predictive capability by modelling these impacts. The NUPSIG project uses a 5-pronged approach to address its aim: (1) analyse hydrodynamic data collected during a proto-type laboratory experiment on a gravel beach; (2) collect hydrodynamic field data on a gravel beach under a range of conditions, including storm waves with wave heights up to 3 m; (3) measure swash dynamics and beach response on 10 gravel beaches during extreme wave conditions with wave heights in excess of 3 m; (4) use the data collected under 1-3 to develop and validate a numerical model to model hydrodynamics and morphological response of gravel beaches under storm conditions; and (5) develop a tool for end-users, based on the model formulated under (4), for predicting storm response of gravel beaches and barriers. The aim of this presentation is to present the key results of the NUPSIG project and introduce the end-user tool for predicting storm response on gravel beaches. The model is based on the numerical model XBeach, and different forcing scenarios (wave and tides), barrier configurations (dimensions) and sediment characteristics are easily uploaded for model simulations using a Graphics User Interface (GUI). The model can be used to determine the vulnerability of gravel barriers to storm events, but can also be
[Prediction of the molecular response to pertubations from single cell measurements].
Remacle, Françoise; Levine, Raphael D
2014-12-01
The response of protein signalization networks to perturbations is analysed from single cell measurements. This experimental approach allows characterizing the fluctuations in protein expression levels from cell to cell. The analysis is based on an information theoretic approach grounded in thermodynamics leading to a quantitative version of Le Chatelier principle which allows to predict the molecular response. Two systems are investigated: human macrophages subjected to lipopolysaccharide challenge, analogous to the immune response against Gram-negative bacteria and the response of the proteins involved in the mTOR signalizing network of GBM cancer cells to changes in partial oxygen pressure. © 2014 médecine/sciences – Inserm.
Balconi, Michela; Grippa, Elisabetta; Vanutelli, Maria Elide
2015-12-01
This study explored the effect of lateralized left-right resting brain activity on prefrontal cortical responsiveness to emotional cues and on the explicit appraisal (stimulus evaluation) of emotions based on their valence. Indeed subjective responses to different emotional stimuli should be predicted by brain resting activity and should be lateralized and valence-related (positive vs negative valence). A hemodynamic measure was considered (functional near-infrared spectroscopy). Indeed hemodynamic resting activity and brain response to emotional cues were registered when subjects (N = 19) viewed emotional positive vs negative stimuli (IAPS). Lateralized index response during resting state, LI (lateralized index) during emotional processing and self-assessment manikin rating were considered. Regression analysis showed the significant predictive effect of resting activity (more left or right lateralized) on both brain response and appraisal of emotional cues based on stimuli valence. Moreover, significant effects were found as a function of valence (more right response to negative stimuli; more left response to positive stimuli) during emotion processing. Therefore, resting state may be considered a predictive marker of the successive cortical responsiveness to emotions. The significance of resting condition for emotional behavior was discussed. © The Author (2015). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Predictive feedback can account for biphasic responses in the lateral geniculate nucleus.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Janneke F M Jehee
2009-05-01
Full Text Available Biphasic neural response properties, where the optimal stimulus for driving a neural response changes from one stimulus pattern to the opposite stimulus pattern over short periods of time, have been described in several visual areas, including lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN, primary visual cortex (V1, and middle temporal area (MT. We describe a hierarchical model of predictive coding and simulations that capture these temporal variations in neuronal response properties. We focus on the LGN-V1 circuit and find that after training on natural images the model exhibits the brain's LGN-V1 connectivity structure, in which the structure of V1 receptive fields is linked to the spatial alignment and properties of center-surround cells in the LGN. In addition, the spatio-temporal response profile of LGN model neurons is biphasic in structure, resembling the biphasic response structure of neurons in cat LGN. Moreover, the model displays a specific pattern of influence of feedback, where LGN receptive fields that are aligned over a simple cell receptive field zone of the same polarity decrease their responses while neurons of opposite polarity increase their responses with feedback. This phase-reversed pattern of influence was recently observed in neurophysiology. These results corroborate the idea that predictive feedback is a general coding strategy in the brain.
Marques, Ana
2016-02-24
The chronic exposure of benthic organisms to metals in sediments can lead to the development of tolerance mechanisms, thus diminishing their responsiveness. This study aims to evaluate the accumulation profiles of V, Cr, Co, Ni, As, Cd, Pb and Hg and antioxidant system responses of two benthic organisms (Cerastoderma edule, Bivalvia; Nephtys hombergii, Polychaeta). This approach will provide clarifications about the ability of each species to signalise metal contamination. Organisms of both species were collected at the Tagus estuary, in two sites with distinct contamination degrees (ALC, slightly contaminated; BAR, highly contaminated). Accordingly, C. edule accumulated higher concentrations of As, Pb and Hg at BAR compared to ALC. However, antioxidant responses of C. edule were almost unaltered at BAR and no peroxidative damage occurred, suggesting adjustment mechanisms to the presence of metals. In contrast, N. hombergii showed a minor propensity to metal accumulation, only signalising spatial differences for As and Pb and accumulating lower concentrations of metals than C. edule. The differences in metal accumulation observed between species might be due to their distinctive foraging behaviour and/or the ability of N. hombergii to minimise the metal uptake. Despite that, the accumulation of As and Pb was on the basis of the polychaete antioxidant defences inhibition at BAR, including CAT, SOD, GR and GPx. The integrated biomarker response index (IBRv2) confirmed that N. hombergii was more affected by metal exposure than C. edule. In the light of current findings, in field-based studies, the information of C. edule as a bioindicator should be complemented by that provided by another benthic species, since tolerance mechanisms to metals can hinder a correct diagnosis of sediment contamination and of the system’s health. Overall, the present study contributed to improve the lack of fundamental knowledge of two widespread and common estuarine species, providing
Effects of local adaptation and interspecific competition on species' responses to climate change.
Bocedi, Greta; Atkins, Katherine E; Liao, Jishan; Henry, Roslyn C; Travis, Justin M J; Hellmann, Jessica J
2013-09-01
Local adaptation and species interactions have been shown to affect geographic ranges; therefore, we need models of climate impact that include both factors. To identify possible dynamics of species when including these factors, we ran simulations of two competing species using an individual-based, coupled map-lattice model using a linear climatic gradient that varies across latitude and is warmed over time. Reproductive success is governed by an individual's adaptation to local climate as well as its location relative to global constraints. In exploratory experiments varying the strength of adaptation and competition, competition reduces genetic diversity and slows range change, although the two species can coexist in the absence of climate change and shift in the absence of competitors. We also found that one species can drive the other to extinction, sometimes long after climate change ends. Weak selection on local adaptation and poor dispersal ability also caused surfing of cooler-adapted phenotypes from the expanding margin backwards, causing loss of warmer-adapted phenotypes. Finally, geographic ranges can become disjointed, losing centrally-adapted genotypes. These initial results suggest that the interplay between local adaptation and interspecific competition can significantly influence species' responses to climate change, in a way that demands future research. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Feng Du
Full Text Available Drought can impact local vegetation dynamics in a long term. In order to predict the possible successional pathway of local community under drought, the responses of some drought resistance indices of six successional seral species in the semi-arid Loss Hilly Region of China were illustrated and compared on three levels of soil water deficits along three growing months (7, 8 and 9. The results showed that: 1 the six species had significant differences in SOD, POD activities and MDA content. The rank correlations between SOD, POD activities and the successional niche positions of the six species were positive, and the correlation between MDA content and the niche positions was negative; 2 activities of SOD, CAT and POD, and content of proline and MDA had significant differences among the three months; 3 there existed significant interactions of SOD, CAT, POD activities and MDA content between months and species. With an exception, no interaction of proline was found. Proline in leaves had a general decline in reproductive month; 4 SOD, CAT, POD activities and proline content had negative correlations with MDA content. Among which, the correlation between SOD activity and MDA content was significant. The results implied that, in arid or semiarid region, the species at later successional stage tend to have strong drought resistance than those at early stage. Anti-drought indices can partially interpret the pathway of community succession in the drought impacted area. SOD activity is more distinct and important on the scope of protecting membrane damage through the scavenging of ROS on exposure to drought.
Novel enzymatic assay predicts minoxidil response in the treatment of androgenetic alopecia.
Goren, Andy; Castano, Juan Antonio; McCoy, John; Bermudez, Fernando; Lotti, Torello
2014-01-01
Topical minoxidil is the most common drug used for the treatment of androgenetic alopecia (AGA) in men and women. Although topical minoxidil exhibits a good safety profile, the efficacy in the overall population remains relatively low at 30-40%. To observe significant improvement in hair growth, minoxidil is typically used daily for a period of at least 3-4 months. Due to the significant time commitment and low response rate, a biomarker for predicting patient response prior to therapy would be advantageous. Minoxidil is converted in the scalp to its active form, minoxidil sulfate, by the sulfotransferase enzyme SULT1A1. We hypothesized that SULT1A1 enzyme activity in the hair follicle correlates with minoxidil response for the treatment of AGA. Our preliminary retrospective study of a SULT1A1 activity assay demonstrates 95% sensitivity and 73% specificity in predicting minoxidil treatment response for AGA. A larger prospective study is now under way to further validate this novel assay. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Mani, Subramani; Chen, Yukun; Arlinghaus, Lori R; Li, Xia; Chakravarthy, A Bapsi; Bhave, Sandeep R; Welch, E Brian; Levy, Mia A; Yankeelov, Thomas E
2011-01-01
The ability to predict early in the course of treatment the response of breast tumors to neoadjuvant chemotherapy can stratify patients based on response for patient-specific treatment strategies. Currently response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy is evaluated based on physical exam or breast imaging (mammogram, ultrasound or conventional breast MRI). There is a poor correlation among these measurements and with the actual tumor size when measured by the pathologist during definitive surgery. We tested the feasibility of using quantitative MRI as a tool for early prediction of tumor response. Between 2007 and 2010 twenty consecutive patients diagnosed with Stage II/III breast cancer and receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy were enrolled on a prospective imaging study. Our study showed that quantitative MRI parameters along with routine clinical measures can predict responders from non-responders to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The best predictive model had an accuracy of 0.9, a positive predictive value of 0.91 and an AUC of 0.96.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vojtěch Jarošík
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Overcoming boundaries is crucial for incursion of alien plant species and their successful naturalization and invasion within protected areas. Previous work showed that in Kruger National Park, South Africa, this process can be quantified and that factors determining the incursion of invasive species can be identified and predicted confidently. Here we explore the similarity between determinants of incursions identified by the general model based on a multispecies assemblage, and those identified by species-specific models. We analyzed the presence and absence of six invasive plant species in 1.0×1.5 km segments along the border of the park as a function of environmental characteristics from outside and inside the KNP boundary, using two data-mining techniques: classification trees and random forests. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The occurrence of Ageratum houstonianum, Chromolaena odorata, Xanthium strumarium, Argemone ochroleuca, Opuntia stricta and Lantana camara can be reliably predicted based on landscape characteristics identified by the general multispecies model, namely water runoff from surrounding watersheds and road density in a 10 km radius. The presence of main rivers and species-specific combinations of vegetation types are reliable predictors from inside the park. CONCLUSIONS: The predictors from the outside and inside of the park are complementary, and are approximately equally reliable for explaining the presence/absence of current invaders; those from the inside are, however, more reliable for predicting future invasions. Landscape characteristics determined as crucial predictors from outside the KNP serve as guidelines for management to enact proactive interventions to manipulate landscape features near the KNP to prevent further incursions. Predictors from the inside the KNP can be used reliably to identify high-risk areas to improve the cost-effectiveness of management, to locate invasive plants and target them for
Jarošík, Vojtěch; Pyšek, Petr; Foxcroft, Llewellyn C.; Richardson, David M.; Rouget, Mathieu; MacFadyen, Sandra
2011-01-01
Background Overcoming boundaries is crucial for incursion of alien plant species and their successful naturalization and invasion within protected areas. Previous work showed that in Kruger National Park, South Africa, this process can be quantified and that factors determining the incursion of invasive species can be identified and predicted confidently. Here we explore the similarity between determinants of incursions identified by the general model based on a multispecies assemblage, and those identified by species-specific models. We analyzed the presence and absence of six invasive plant species in 1.0×1.5 km segments along the border of the park as a function of environmental characteristics from outside and inside the KNP boundary, using two data-mining techniques: classification trees and random forests. Principal Findings The occurrence of Ageratum houstonianum, Chromolaena odorata, Xanthium strumarium, Argemone ochroleuca, Opuntia stricta and Lantana camara can be reliably predicted based on landscape characteristics identified by the general multispecies model, namely water runoff from surrounding watersheds and road density in a 10 km radius. The presence of main rivers and species-specific combinations of vegetation types are reliable predictors from inside the park. Conclusions The predictors from the outside and inside of the park are complementary, and are approximately equally reliable for explaining the presence/absence of current invaders; those from the inside are, however, more reliable for predicting future invasions. Landscape characteristics determined as crucial predictors from outside the KNP serve as guidelines for management to enact proactive interventions to manipulate landscape features near the KNP to prevent further incursions. Predictors from the inside the KNP can be used reliably to identify high-risk areas to improve the cost-effectiveness of management, to locate invasive plants and target them for eradication. PMID:22194893
Characterizing fish responses to a river restoration over 21 years based on species' traits.
Höckendorff, Stefanie; Tonkin, Jonathan D; Haase, Peter; Bunzel-Drüke, Margret; Zimball, Olaf; Scharf, Matthias; Stoll, Stefan
2017-10-01
Understanding restoration effectiveness is often impaired by a lack of high-quality, long-term monitoring data and, to date, few researchers have used species' trait information to gain insight into the processes that drive the reaction of fish communities to restoration. We examined fish-community responses with a highly resolved data set from 21 consecutive years of electrofishing (4 years prerestoration and 17 years postrestoration) at multiple restored and unrestored reaches from a river restoration project on the Lippe River, Germany. Fish abundance peaked in the third year after the restoration; abundance was 6 times higher than before the restoration. After 5-7 years, species richness and abundance stabilized at 2 and 3.5 times higher levels relative to the prerestoration level, respectively. However, interannual variability of species richness and abundance remained considerable, illustrating the challenge of reliably assessing restoration outcomes based on data from individual samplings, especially in the first years following restoration. Life-history and reproduction-related traits best explained differences in species' responses to restoration. Opportunistic short-lived species with early female maturity and multiple spawning runs per year exhibited the strongest increase in abundance, which reflected their ability to rapidly colonize new habitats. These often small-bodied and fusiform fishes typically live in dynamic and ephemeral instream and floodplain areas that river-habitat restorations often aim to create, and in this case their increases in abundance indicated successful restoration. Our results suggest that a greater consideration of species' traits may enhance the causal understanding of community processes and the coupling of restoration to functional ecology. Trait-based assessments of restoration outcomes would furthermore allow for easier transfer of knowledge across biogeographic borders than studies based on taxonomy. © 2017 Society for
An Analysis of Natural T Cell Responses to Predicted Tumor Neoepitopes
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Anne-Mette Bjerregaard
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Personalization of cancer immunotherapies such as therapeutic vaccines and adoptive T-cell therapy may benefit from efficient identification and targeting of patient-specific neoepitopes. However, current neoepitope prediction methods based on sequencing and predictions of epitope processing and presentation result in a low rate of validation, suggesting that the determinants of peptide immunogenicity are not well understood. We gathered published data on human neopeptides originating from single amino acid substitutions for which T cell reactivity had been experimentally tested, including both immunogenic and non-immunogenic neopeptides. Out of 1,948 neopeptide-HLA (human leukocyte antigen combinations from 13 publications, 53 were reported to elicit a T cell response. From these data, we found an enrichment for responses among peptides of length 9. Even though the peptides had been pre-selected based on presumed likelihood of being immunogenic, we found using NetMHCpan-4.0 that immunogenic neopeptides were predicted to bind significantly more strongly to HLA compared to non-immunogenic peptides. Investigation of the HLA binding strength of the immunogenic peptides revealed that the vast majority (96% shared very strong predicted binding to HLA and that the binding strength was comparable to that observed for pathogen-derived epitopes. Finally, we found that neopeptide dissimilarity to self is a predictor of immunogenicity in situations where neo- and normal peptides share comparable predicted binding strength. In conclusion, these results suggest new strategies for prioritization of mutated peptides, but new data will be needed to confirm their value.
Physiological Responses to Prolonged Drought Differ Among Three Oak (Quercus) Species
Cooper, C. E.; Moore, G. W.; Vogel, J. G.; Muir, J. P.
2015-12-01
The physiological response of plants to water stress provides insights into which species may survive in exceptional drought conditions. This study conducted on a remnant post oak savanna site in College Station, Texas, examined how drought affected the physiology of three native oak species. In June 2014, after a period of equal watering, we subjected three year old Quercus shumardii (Shumard oak; SO), Q. virginiana (live oak; LO), and Q. macrocarpa (bur oak; BO) saplings to one of two watering treatments: 1) watered, receiving the equivalent of theaverage precipitation rate and 2) droughted, receiving a 100% reduction in precipitation. We measured predawn (ΨPD) and midday (ΨMD) leaf water potential; midday gas exchange (MGE) parameters including photosynthesis (Al), transpiration (T), stomatal conductance (gsw); and leaf soluble (SS) and non-soluble sugar (NSS) concentrations monthly between June and October 2014. Drought stress responses were evident after only one month of induced drought. Droughted saplings showed reduced ΨPD, ΨMD, and MGE (P ≤ 0.05) in comparison to watered saplings of the same species. LO saplings exhibited greater MGE (P ≤ 0.05) while maintaining similar LWP to their respective watered and droughted BO and SO counterparts. Droughted LO exhibited MGE rates similar to those of watered BO and SO (P ≤ 0.05), while watered LO adjusted its MGE rates to changes in water availability better than BO and LO during short-term drought. Compared to water saplings, droughted saplings had greater leaf SS (P = 0.08) and lower NSS concentrations (P = 0.10), possibly due to the conversion of NSS to SS and other simple compounds and reduced consumption of SS for growth by the droughted saplings. Although SO and BO exhibited similar photosynthesis rates, leaf total sugar (SS+NSS) concentration was greater in SO (P ≤ 0.05). By displaying the greatest average photosynthesis rate (P ≤ 0.05), LO should have accumulated the greatest amount of carbon
Basal blood DHEA-S/cortisol levels predicts EMDR treatment response in adolescents with PTSD.
Usta, Mirac Baris; Gumus, Yusuf Yasin; Say, Gokce Nur; Bozkurt, Abdullah; Şahin, Berkan; Karabekiroğlu, Koray
2018-04-01
In literature, recent evidence has shown that the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis can be dysregulated in patients with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and HPA axis hormones may predict the psychotherapy treatment response in patients with PTSD. In this study, it was aimed to investigate changing cortisol and DHEA-S levels post-eye movement desensitization and reprocessing (EMDR) therapy and the relationship between treatment response and basal cortisol, and DHEA-S levels before treatment. The study group comprised 40 adolescents (age, 12-18 years) with PTSD. The PTSD symptoms were assessed using the Child Depression Inventory (CDI) and Child Post-traumatic Stress Reaction Index (CPSRI) and the blood cortisol and DHEA-S were measured with the chemiluminescence method before and after treatment. A maximum of six sessions of EMDR therapy were conducted by an EMDR level-1 trained child psychiatry resident. Treatment response was measured by the pre- to post-treatment decrease in self-reported and clinical PTSD severity. Pre- and post-treatment DHEA-S and cortisol levels did not show any statistically significant difference. Pre-treatment CDI scores were negatively correlated with pre-treatment DHEA-S levels (r: -0.39). ROC analysis demonstrated that the DHEA-S/cortisol ratio predicts treatment response at a medium level (AUC: 0.703, p: .030, sensitivity: 0.65, specificity: 0.86). The results of this study suggested that the DHEA-S/cortisol ratio may predict treatment response in adolescents with PTSD receiving EMDR therapy. The biochemical parameter of HPA-axis activity appears to be an important predictor of positive clinical response in adolescent PTSD patients, and could be used in clinical practice to predict PTSD treatment in the future.
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
Jayalakshmy, K.V.; Saraswathy, M.
. Multiple regression model of P. indica abundance on the parameters: temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and phosphate-phosphorus could explain more than 85% of the variation in the predicted abundance, while those of 8 species obtained from...
Music-related reward responses predict episodic memory performance.
Ferreri, Laura; Rodriguez-Fornells, Antoni
2017-12-01
Music represents a special type of reward involving the recruitment of the mesolimbic dopaminergic system. According to recent theories on episodic memory formation, as dopamine strengthens the synaptic potentiation produced by learning, stimuli triggering dopamine release could result in long-term memory improvements. Here, we behaviourally test whether music-related reward responses could modulate episodic memory performance. Thirty participants rated (in terms of arousal, familiarity, emotional valence, and reward) and encoded unfamiliar classical music excerpts. Twenty-four hours later, their episodic memory was tested (old/new recognition and remember/know paradigm). Results revealed an influence of music-related reward responses on memory: excerpts rated as more rewarding were significantly better recognized and remembered. Furthermore, inter-individual differences in the ability to experience musical reward, measured through the Barcelona Music Reward Questionnaire, positively predicted memory performance. Taken together, these findings shed new light on the relationship between music, reward and memory, showing for the first time that music-driven reward responses are directly implicated in higher cognitive functions and can account for individual differences in memory performance.
Predictive display design for the vehicles with time delay in dynamic response
Efremov, A. V.; Tiaglik, M. S.; Irgaleev, I. H.; Efremov, E. V.
2018-02-01
The two ways for the improvement of flying qualities are considered: the predictive display (PD) and the predictive display integrated with the flight control system (FCS). The both ways allow to transforming the controlled element dynamics in the crossover frequency range, to improve the accuracy of tracking and to suppress the effect of time delay in the vehicle response too. The technique for optimization of the predictive law is applied to the landing task. The results of the mathematical modeling and experimental investigations carried out for this task are considered in the paper.
Coutand, Catherine; Chevolot, Malia; Lacointe, André; Rowe, Nick; Scotti, Ivan
2010-02-01
In rain forests, sapling survival is highly dependent on the regulation of trunk slenderness (height/diameter ratio): shade-intolerant species have to grow in height as fast as possible to reach the canopy but also have to withstand mechanical loadings (wind and their own weight) to avoid buckling. Recent studies suggest that mechanosensing is essential to control tree dimensions and stability-related morphogenesis. Differences in species slenderness have been observed among rainforest trees; the present study thus investigates whether species with different slenderness and growth habits exhibit differences in mechanosensitivity. Recent studies have led to a model of mechanosensing (sum-of-strains model) that predicts a quantitative relationship between the applied sum of longitudinal strains and the plant's responses in the case of a single bending. Saplings of five different neotropical species (Eperua falcata, E. grandiflora, Tachigali melinonii, Symphonia globulifera and Bauhinia guianensis) were subjected to a regimen of controlled mechanical loading phases (bending) alternating with still phases over a period of 2 months. Mechanical loading was controlled in terms of strains and the five species were subjected to the same range of sum of strains. The application of the sum-of-strain model led to a dose-response curve for each species. Dose-response curves were then compared between tested species. The model of mechanosensing (sum-of-strain model) applied in the case of multiple bending as long as the bending frequency was low. A comparison of dose-response curves for each species demonstrated differences in the stimulus threshold, suggesting two groups of responses among the species. Interestingly, the liana species B. guianensis exhibited a higher threshold than other Leguminosae species tested. This study provides a conceptual framework to study variability in plant mechanosensing and demonstrated interspecific variability in mechanosensing.
Response-driven imaging biomarkers for predicting radiation necrosis of the brain
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nazem-Zadeh, Mohammad-Reza; Chapman, Christopher H; Lawrence, Theodore S; Ten Haken, Randall K; Tsien, Christina I; Cao, Yue; Chenevert, Thomas
2014-01-01
Radiation necrosis is an uncommon but severe adverse effect of brain radiation therapy (RT). Current predictive models based on radiation dose have limited accuracy. We aimed to identify early individual response biomarkers based upon diffusion tensor (DT) imaging and incorporated them into a response model for prediction of radiation necrosis. Twenty-nine patients with glioblastoma received six weeks of intensity modulated RT and concurrent temozolomide. Patients underwent DT-MRI scans before treatment, at three weeks during RT, and one, three, and six months after RT. Cases with radiation necrosis were classified based on generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD) of whole brain and DT index early changes in the corpus callosum and its substructures. Significant covariates were used to develop normal tissue complication probability models using binary logistic regression. Seven patients developed radiation necrosis. Percentage changes of radial diffusivity (RD) in the splenium at three weeks during RT and at six months after RT differed significantly between the patients with and without necrosis (p = 0.05 and p = 0.01). Percentage change of RD at three weeks during RT in the 30 Gy dose–volume of the splenium and brain gEUD combined yielded the best-fit logistic regression model. Our findings indicate that early individual response during the course of RT, assessed by radial diffusivity, has the potential to aid the prediction of delayed radiation necrosis, which could provide guidance in dose-escalation trials. (paper)
Tadayyon, Hadi; Sannachi, Lakshmanan; Gangeh, Mehrdad J; Kim, Christina; Ghandi, Sonal; Trudeau, Maureen; Pritchard, Kathleen; Tran, William T; Slodkowska, Elzbieta; Sadeghi-Naini, Ali; Czarnota, Gregory J
2017-04-12
Quantitative ultrasound (QUS) can probe tissue structure and analyze tumour characteristics. Using a 6-MHz ultrasound system, radiofrequency data were acquired from 56 locally advanced breast cancer patients prior to their neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and QUS texture features were computed from regions of interest in tumour cores and their margins as potential predictive and prognostic indicators. Breast tumour molecular features were also collected and used for analysis. A multiparametric QUS model was constructed, which demonstrated a response prediction accuracy of 88% and ability to predict patient 5-year survival rates (p = 0.01). QUS features demonstrated superior performance in comparison to molecular markers and the combination of QUS and molecular markers did not improve response prediction. This study demonstrates, for the first time, that non-invasive QUS features in the core and margin of breast tumours can indicate breast cancer response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and predict five-year recurrence-free survival.
Ylinen, Sari; Bosseler, Alexis; Junttila, Katja; Huotilainen, Minna
2017-01-01
The ability to predict future events in the environment and learn from them is a fundamental component of adaptive behavior across species. Here we propose that inferring predictions facilitates speech processing and word learning in the early stages of language development. Twelve- and 24-month olds' electrophysiological brain responses to heard…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Françoise eLecaignard
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Deviant stimuli, violating regularities in a sensory environment, elicit the Mismatch Negativity (MMN, largely described in the Event-Related Potential literature. While it is widely accepted that the MMN reflects more than basic change detection, a comprehensive description of mental processes modulating this response is still lacking. Within the framework of predictive coding, deviance processing is part of an inference process where prediction errors (the mismatch between incoming sensations and predictions established through experience are minimized. In this view, the MMN is a measure of prediction error, which yields specific expectations regarding its modulations by various experimental factors. In particular, it predicts that the MMN should decrease as the occurrence of a deviance becomes more predictable. We conducted a passive oddball EEG study and manipulated the predictability of sound sequences by means of different temporal structures. Importantly, our design allows comparing mismatch responses elicited by predictable and unpredictable violations of a simple repetition rule and therefore departs from previous studies that investigate violations of different time-scale regularities. We observed a decrease of the MMN with predictability and interestingly, a similar effect at earlier latencies, within 70 ms after deviance onset. Following these pre-attentive responses, a reduced P3a was measured in the case of predictable deviants. We conclude that early and late deviance responses reflect prediction errors, triggering belief updating within the auditory hierarchy. Beside, in this passive study, such perceptual inference appears to be modulated by higher-level implicit learning of sequence statistical structures. Our findings argue for a hierarchical model of auditory processing where predictive coding enables implicit extraction of environmental regularities.
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Sebastian Dalgarno
2017-12-01
Full Text Available We present a species distribution model (SDM for prediction of Black Oystercatcher (Haematopus bachmani breeding pair occurrence in Haida Gwaii, British Columbia. Boosted regression trees, a machine learning algorithm, was used to fit the model. In total, 14 predictors were selected a priori through development of a conceptual model. Breeding pair occurrence data were compiled from two available surveys conducted in 2005 and 2010 (545 km of shoreline surveyed in total. All data were aggregated to common model units (vector polyline shoreline segments approximately 100 m in length, which approximate breeding territory size. The final model, which included eight predictors (distance to treeline, island area, wave exposure, shoreline type, intertidal area within 50 m, segment length, rat occurrence, and intertidal area within 1000 m, had excellent predictive ability assessed by 10-fold cross-validation (AUC = 0.89. Predictive ability was reduced when the model was trained and tested on spatially (AUC = 0.86 and temporally (AUC = 0.83 independent data. Distance to treeline and island area had greatest influence on the model (RI = 41.5% and RI = 36.7%, respectively; we hypothesized that these predictors are related to avoidance of predators. Partial dependence plots revealed that breeding pairs tended to occur: further from the treeline, on small islands, at high wave exposures, at moderate intertidal area, on bedrock or gravel shoreline types, and on islands without rats. However, breeding pairs tended not to occur on very small islands and at very high wave exposures, which we hypothesize to reflect avoidance of nest washout. Results may inform local conservation and management efforts, i.e., from predictive maps, and eventual development of a high-resolution (~100 m model for prediction of Black Oystercatcher breeding pairs at a regional scale. Further, methods and GIS data sets developed may be used to model distribution of other coastal species
Germaine, Stephen S.; Ignizio, Drew; Keinath, Doug; Copeland, Holly
2014-01-01
Species distribution models are an important component of natural-resource conservation planning efforts. Independent, external evaluation of their accuracy is important before they are used in management contexts. We evaluated the classification accuracy of two species distribution models designed to predict the distribution of pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis habitat in southwestern Wyoming, USA. The Nature Conservancy model was deductive and based on published information and expert opinion, whereas the Wyoming Natural Diversity Database model was statistically derived using historical observation data. We randomly selected 187 evaluation survey points throughout southwestern Wyoming in areas predicted to be habitat and areas predicted to be nonhabitat for each model. The Nature Conservancy model correctly classified 39 of 77 (50.6%) unoccupied evaluation plots and 65 of 88 (73.9%) occupied plots for an overall classification success of 63.3%. The Wyoming Natural Diversity Database model correctly classified 53 of 95 (55.8%) unoccupied plots and 59 of 88 (67.0%) occupied plots for an overall classification success of 61.2%. Based on 95% asymptotic confidence intervals, classification success of the two models did not differ. The models jointly classified 10.8% of the area as habitat and 47.4% of the area as nonhabitat, but were discordant in classifying the remaining 41.9% of the area. To evaluate how anthropogenic development affected model predictive success, we surveyed 120 additional plots among three density levels of gas-field road networks. Classification success declined sharply for both models as road-density level increased beyond 5 km of roads per km-squared area. Both models were more effective at predicting habitat than nonhabitat in relatively undeveloped areas, and neither was effective at accounting for the effects of gas-energy-development road networks. Resource managers who wish to know the amount of pygmy rabbit habitat present in an
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
West, Catharine M.L.; McKay, Michael J.; Hoelscher, Tobias; Baumann, Michael; Stratford, Ian J.; Bristow, Robert G.; Iwakawa, Mayumi; Imai, Takashi; Zingde, Surekha M.; Anscher, Mitchell S.; Bourhis, Jean; Begg, Adrian C.; Haustermans, Karin; Bentzen, Soren M.; Hendry, Jolyon H.
2005-01-01
Purpose: There is increasing interest in radiogenomics and the characterization of molecular profiles that predict normal tissue and tumor radioresponse. A meeting in Amsterdam was organized by the International Atomic Energy Agency to discuss this topic on an international basis. Methods and Materials: This report is not completely exhaustive, but highlights some of the ongoing studies and new initiatives being carried out worldwide in the banking of tumor and normal tissue samples underpinning the development of molecular marker profiles for predicting patient response to radiotherapy. It is generally considered that these profiles will more accurately define individual or group radiosensitivities compared with the nondefinitive findings from the previous era of cellular-based techniques. However, so far there are only a few robust reports of molecular markers predicting normal tissue or tumor response. Results: Many centers in different countries have initiated tissue and tumor banks to store samples from clinical trials for future molecular profiling analysis, to identify profiles that predict for radiotherapy response. The European Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology GENEtic pathways for the Prediction of the effects of Irradiation (GENEPI) project, to store, document, and analyze sample characteristics vs. response, is the most comprehensive in this regard. Conclusions: The next 5-10 years are likely to see the results of these and other correlative studies, and promising associations of profiles with response should be validated in larger definitive trials
The auditory brainstem response in two lizard species.
Brittan-Powell, Elizabeth F; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jakob; Tang, Yezhong; Carr, Catherine; Dooling, Robert J
2010-08-01
Although lizards have highly sensitive ears, it is difficult to condition them to sound, making standard psychophysical assays of hearing sensitivity impractical. This paper describes non-invasive measurements of the auditory brainstem response (ABR) in both Tokay geckos (Gekko gecko; nocturnal animals, known for their loud vocalizations) and the green anole (Anolis carolinensis, diurnal, non-vocal animals). Hearing sensitivity was measured in 5 geckos and 7 anoles. The lizards were sedated with isoflurane, and ABRs were measured at levels of 1 and 3% isoflurane. The typical ABR waveform in response to click stimulation showed one prominent and several smaller peaks occurring within 10 ms of the stimulus onset. ABRs to brief tone bursts revealed that geckos and anoles were most sensitive between 1.6-2 kHz and had similar hearing sensitivity up to about 5 kHz (thresholds typically 20-50 dB SPL). Above 5 kHz, however, anoles were more than 20 dB more sensitive than geckos and showed a wider range of sensitivity (1-7 kHz). Generally, thresholds from ABR audiograms were comparable to those of small birds. Best hearing sensitivity, however, extended over a larger frequency range in lizards than in most bird species.
Are ecosystem services stabilized by differences among species? A test using crop pollination.
Winfree, Rachael; Kremen, Claire
2009-01-22
Biological diversity could enhance ecosystem service provision by increasing the mean level of services provided, and/or by providing more consistent (stable) services over space and time. Ecological theory predicts that when an ecosystem service is provided by many species, it will be stabilized against disturbance by a variety of 'stabilizing mechanisms.' However, few studies have investigated whether stabilizing mechanisms occur in real landscapes affected by human disturbance. We used two datasets on crop pollination by wild native bees to screen for and differentiate among three stabilizing mechanisms: density compensation (negative co-variance among species' abundances); response diversity (differential response to environmental variables among species); and cross-scale resilience (response to the same environmental variable at different scales by different species). In both datasets, we found response diversity and cross-scale resilience, but not density compensation. We conclude that stabilizing mechanisms may contribute to the stability of pollination services in our study areas, emphasizing the insurance value of seemingly 'redundant' species. Furthermore, the absence of density compensation that we found at the landscape scale contrasts with findings of previous small-scale experimental and modelling work, suggesting that we should not assume that density compensation will stabilize ecosystem services in real landscapes.
Bettina Ohse; Falk Huettmann; Stefanie M. Ickert-Bond; Glenn P. Juday
2009-01-01
Most wilderness areas still lack accurate distribution information on tree species. We met this need with a predictive GIS modeling approach, using freely available digital data and computer programs to efficiently obtain high-quality species distribution maps. Here we present a digital map with the predicted distribution of white spruce (Picea glauca...
Predictions of the electro-mechanical response of conductive CNT-polymer composites
Matos, Miguel A. S.; Tagarielli, Vito L.; Baiz-Villafranca, Pedro M.; Pinho, Silvestre T.
2018-05-01
We present finite element simulations to predict the conductivity, elastic response and strain-sensing capability of conductive composites comprising a polymeric matrix and carbon nanotubes. Realistic representative volume elements (RVE) of the microstructure are generated and both constituents are modelled as linear elastic solids, with resistivity independent of strain; the electrical contact between nanotubes is represented by a new element which accounts for quantum tunnelling effects and captures the sensitivity of conductivity to separation. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted and the sensitivity of the predictions to RVE size is explored. Predictions of modulus and conductivity are found in good agreement with published results. The strain-sensing capability of the material is explored for multiaxial strain states.
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Petros-Pavlos Ypsilantis
Full Text Available Imaging of cancer with 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (18F-FDG PET has become a standard component of diagnosis and staging in oncology, and is becoming more important as a quantitative monitor of individual response to therapy. In this article we investigate the challenging problem of predicting a patient's response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy from a single 18F-FDG PET scan taken prior to treatment. We take a "radiomics" approach whereby a large amount of quantitative features is automatically extracted from pretherapy PET images in order to build a comprehensive quantification of the tumor phenotype. While the dominant methodology relies on hand-crafted texture features, we explore the potential of automatically learning low- to high-level features directly from PET scans. We report on a study that compares the performance of two competing radiomics strategies: an approach based on state-of-the-art statistical classifiers using over 100 quantitative imaging descriptors, including texture features as well as standardized uptake values, and a convolutional neural network, 3S-CNN, trained directly from PET scans by taking sets of adjacent intra-tumor slices. Our experimental results, based on a sample of 107 patients with esophageal cancer, provide initial evidence that convolutional neural networks have the potential to extract PET imaging representations that are highly predictive of response to therapy. On this dataset, 3S-CNN achieves an average 80.7% sensitivity and 81.6% specificity in predicting non-responders, and outperforms other competing predictive models.
Meller, Kalle; Piha, Markus; Vähätalo, Anssi V; Lehikoinen, Aleksi
2018-03-01
Anthropogenic climate warming has already affected the population dynamics of numerous species and is predicted to do so also in the future. To predict the effects of climate change, it is important to know whether productivity is linked to temperature, and whether species' traits affect responses to climate change. To address these objectives, we analysed monitoring data from the Finnish constant effort site ringing scheme collected in 1987-2013 for 20 common songbird species together with climatic data. Warm spring temperature had a positive linear relationship with productivity across the community of 20 species independent of species' traits (realized thermal niche or migration behaviour), suggesting that even the warmest spring temperatures remained below the thermal optimum for reproduction, possibly due to our boreal study area being closer to the cold edge of all study species' distributions. The result also suggests a lack of mismatch between the timing of breeding and peak availability of invertebrate food of the study species. Productivity was positively related to annual growth rates in long-distance migrants, but not in short-distance migrants. Across the 27-year study period, temporal trends in productivity were mostly absent. The population sizes of species with colder thermal niches had decreasing trends, which were not related to temperature responses or temporal trends in productivity. The positive connection between spring temperature and productivity suggests that climate warming has potential to increase the productivity in bird species in the boreal zone, at least in the short term.
Climate‐induced response of commercially important flatfish species during the 20th century
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sparrevohn, Claus Reedtz; Lindegren, Martin; Mackenzie, Brian R.
2013-01-01
plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) and (ii) whether two related warm‐water species (turbot, Psetta maxima and brill, Scophthalmus rhombus) show similar responses to increasing temperature or, alternatively, whether turbot (which has a broader juvenile diet) has been favored. Since the early 1980s, both sole...... was closely related and explained 43% of the observed variation in sole survey catches relative to the plaice catches and almost 38% of the observed variation in the sole landings relative to the plaice landings. For the less common species, turbot and brill, none of the global change indicators explained...... and turbot have constituted an increasing part of the commercial landings and survey catches, as compared with plaice and brill, respectively. These changes in species composition were linked to sea surface temperatures, Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies (NHA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation. NHA...
Moving Species Redundancy Toward a More Predictive Framework
Human activities are driving rapid changes in species diversity in a wide range of habitats globally. These changes in species diversity raise questions about the ability of altered systems to continue to offer valuable ecosystem services. Maintenance of ecosystem services unde...
Frank, Hannah K; Frishkoff, Luke O; Mendenhall, Chase D; Daily, Gretchen C; Hadly, Elizabeth A
2017-08-01
If species' evolutionary pasts predetermine their responses to evolutionarily novel stressors, then phylogeny could predict species survival in an increasingly human-dominated world. To understand the role of phylogenetic relatedness in structuring responses to rapid environmental change, we focused on assemblages of Neotropical bats, an ecologically diverse and functionally important group. We examined how taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity shift between tropical forest and farmland. We then explored the importance of evolutionary history by ascertaining whether close relatives share similar responses to environmental change and which species traits might mediate these trends. We analyzed a 5-year data set (5,011 captures) from 18 sites in a countryside landscape in southern Costa Rica using statistical models that account and correct for imperfect detection of species across sites, spatial autocorrelation, and consideration of spatial scale. Taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity decreased with deforestation, and assemblages became more phylogenetically clustered. Species' responses to deforestation were strongly phylogenetically correlated. Body mass and absolute wing loading explained a substantial portion of species variation in species' habitat preferences, likely related to these traits' influence on maneuverability in cluttered forest environments. Our findings highlight the role that evolutionary history plays in determining which species will survive human impacts and the need to consider diversity metrics, evolutionary history, and traits together when making predictions about species persistence for conservation or ecosystem functioning.
Combinatorial Cis-regulation in Saccharomyces Species
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aaron T. Spivak
2016-03-01
Full Text Available Transcriptional control of gene expression requires interactions between the cis-regulatory elements (CREs controlling gene promoters. We developed a sensitive computational method to identify CRE combinations with conserved spacing that does not require genome alignments. When applied to seven sensu stricto and sensu lato Saccharomyces species, 80% of the predicted interactions displayed some evidence of combinatorial transcriptional behavior in several existing datasets including: (1 chromatin immunoprecipitation data for colocalization of transcription factors, (2 gene expression data for coexpression of predicted regulatory targets, and (3 gene ontology databases for common pathway membership of predicted regulatory targets. We tested several predicted CRE interactions with chromatin immunoprecipitation experiments in a wild-type strain and strains in which a predicted cofactor was deleted. Our experiments confirmed that transcription factor (TF occupancy at the promoters of the CRE combination target genes depends on the predicted cofactor while occupancy of other promoters is independent of the predicted cofactor. Our method has the additional advantage of identifying regulatory differences between species. By analyzing the S. cerevisiae and S. bayanus genomes, we identified differences in combinatorial cis-regulation between the species and showed that the predicted changes in gene regulation explain several of the species-specific differences seen in gene expression datasets. In some instances, the same CRE combinations appear to regulate genes involved in distinct biological processes in the two different species. The results of this research demonstrate that (1 combinatorial cis-regulation can be inferred by multi-genome analysis and (2 combinatorial cis-regulation can explain differences in gene expression between species.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thibaud Rougier
Full Text Available Species can respond to climate change by tracking appropriate environmental conditions in space, resulting in a range shift. Species Distribution Models (SDMs can help forecast such range shift responses. For few species, both correlative and mechanistic SDMs were built, but allis shad (Alosa alosa, an endangered anadromous fish species, is one of them. The main purpose of this study was to provide a framework for joint analyses of correlative and mechanistic SDMs projections in order to strengthen conservation measures for species of conservation concern. Guidelines for joint representation and subsequent interpretation of models outputs were defined and applied. The present joint analysis was based on the novel mechanistic model GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution which was parameterized on allis shad and then used to predict its future distribution along the European Atlantic coast under different climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. We then used a correlative SDM for this species to forecast its distribution across the same geographic area and under the same climate change scenarios. First, projections from correlative and mechanistic models provided congruent trends in probability of habitat suitability and population dynamics. This agreement was preferentially interpreted as referring to the species vulnerability to climate change. Climate change could not be accordingly listed as a major threat for allis shad. The congruence in predicted range limits between SDMs projections was the next point of interest. The difference, when noticed, required to deepen our understanding of the niche modelled by each approach. In this respect, the relative position of the northern range limit between the two methods strongly suggested here that a key biological process related to intraspecific variability was potentially lacking in the mechanistic SDM. Based on our knowledge, we hypothesized that local
Dijkstra, Peter D.; Verzijden, Machteld N.; Groothuis, Ton G. G.; Hofmann, Hans A.
The diverse cichlid species flocks of the East African lakes provide a classical example of adaptive radiation. Territorial aggression is thought to influence the evolution of phenotypic diversity in this system. Most vertebrates mount hormonal (androgen, glucocorticoid) responses to a territorial
Children's biological responsivity to acute stress predicts concurrent cognitive performance.
Roos, Leslie E; Beauchamp, Kathryn G; Giuliano, Ryan; Zalewski, Maureen; Kim, Hyoun K; Fisher, Philip A
2018-04-10
Although prior research has characterized stress system reactivity (i.e. hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, HPAA; autonomic nervous system, ANS) in children, it has yet to examine the extent to which biological reactivity predicts concurrent goal-directed behavior. Here, we employed a stressor paradigm that allowed concurrent assessment of both stress system reactivity and performance on a speeded-response task to investigate the links between biological reactivity and cognitive function under stress. We further investigated gender as a moderator given previous research suggesting that the ANS may be particularly predictive of behavior in males due to gender differences in socialization. In a sociodemographically diverse sample of young children (N = 58, M age = 5.38 yrs; 44% male), individual differences in sociodemographic covariates (age, household income), HPAA (i.e. cortisol), and ANS (i.e. respiratory sinus arrhythmia, RSA, indexing the parasympathetic branch; pre-ejection period, PEP, indexing the sympathetic branch) function were assessed as predictors of cognitive performance under stress. We hypothesized that higher income, older age, and greater cortisol reactivity would be associated with better performance overall, and flexible ANS responsivity (i.e. RSA withdrawal, PEP shortening) would be predictive of performance for males. Overall, females performed better than males. Two-group SEM analyses suggest that, for males, greater RSA withdrawal to the stressor was associated with better performance, while for females, older age, higher income, and greater cortisol reactivity were associated with better performance. Results highlight the relevance of stress system reactivity to cognitive performance under stress. Future research is needed to further elucidate for whom and in what situations biological reactivity predicts goal-directed behavior.
McKiernan, Adam B; Potts, Brad M; Brodribb, Timothy J; Hovenden, Mark J; Davies, Noel W; McAdam, Scott A M; Ross, John J; Rodemann, Thomas; O'Reilly-Wapstra, Julianne M
2016-02-01
Water deficit associated with drought can severely affect plants and influence ecological interactions involving plant secondary metabolites. We tested the effect of mild water deficit and rewatering on physiological, morphological and chemical traits of juvenile Eucalyptus globulus Labill. and Eucalyptus viminalis Labill. We also tested if responses of juvenile eucalypts to water deficit and rewatering varied within species using provenances across a rainfall gradient. Both species and all provenances were similarly affected by mild water deficit and rewatering, as only foliar abscisic acid levels differed among provenances during water deficit. Across species and provenances, water deficit decreased leaf water potential, above-ground biomass and formylated phloroglucinol compound concentrations, and increased condensed tannin concentrations. Rewatering reduced leaf carbon : nitrogen, and total phenolic and chlorogenic acid concentrations. Water deficit and rewatering had no effect on total oil or individual terpene concentrations. Levels of trait plasticity due to water deficit and rewatering were less than levels of constitutive trait variation among provenances. The overall uniformity of responses to the treatments regardless of native provenance indicates limited diversification of plastic responses when compared with the larger quantitative variation of constitutive traits within these species. These responses to mild water deficit may differ from responses to more extreme water deficit or to responses of juvenile/mature eucalypts growing at each locality. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Estimation of base temperatures for nine weed species.
Steinmaus, S J; Prather, T S; Holt, J S
2000-02-01
Experiments were conducted to test several methods for estimating low temperature thresholds for seed germination. Temperature responses of nine weeds common in annual agroecosystems were assessed in temperature gradient experiments. Species included summer annuals (Amaranthus albus, A. palmeri, Digitaria sanguinalis, Echinochloa crus-galli, Portulaca oleracea, and Setaria glauca), winter annuals (Hirschfeldia incana and Sonchus oleraceus), and Conyza canadensis, which is classified as a summer or winter annual. The temperature below which development ceases (Tbase) was estimated as the x-intercept of four conventional germination rate indices regressed on temperature, by repeated probit analysis, and by a mathematical approach. An overall Tbase estimate for each species was the average across indices weighted by the reciprocal of the variance associated with the estimate. Germination rates increased linearly with temperature between 15 degrees C and 30 degrees C for all species. Consistent estimates of Tbase were obtained for most species using several indices. The most statistically robust and biologically relevant method was the reciprocal time to median germination, which can also be used to estimate other biologically meaningful parameters. The mean Tbase for summer annuals (13.8 degrees C) was higher than that for winter annuals (8.3 degrees C). The two germination response characteristics, Tbase and slope (rate), influence a species' germination behaviour in the field since the germination inhibiting effects of a high Tbase may be offset by the germination promoting effects of a rapid germination response to temperature. Estimates of Tbase may be incorporated into predictive thermal time models to assist weed control practitioners in making management decisions.
Texture analysis on MR images helps predicting non-response to NAC in breast cancer
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Michoux, N.; Van den Broeck, S.; Lacoste, L.; Fellah, L.; Galant, C.; Berlière, M.; Leconte, I.
2015-01-01
To assess the performance of a predictive model of non-response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in patients with breast cancer based on texture, kinetic, and BI-RADS parameters measured from dynamic MRI. Sixty-nine patients with invasive ductal carcinoma of the breast who underwent pre-treatment MRI were studied. Morphological parameters and biological markers were measured. Pathological complete response was defined as the absence of invasive and in situ cancer in breast and nodes. Pathological non-responders, partial and complete responders were identified. Dynamic imaging was performed at 1.5 T with a 3D axial T1W GRE fat-suppressed sequence. Visual texture, kinetic and BI-RADS parameters were measured in each lesion. ROC analysis and leave-one-out cross-validation were used to assess the performance of individual parameters, then the performance of multi-parametric models in predicting non-response to NAC. A model based on four pre-NAC parameters (inverse difference moment, GLN, LRHGE, wash-in) and k-means clustering as statistical classifier identified non-responders with 84 % sensitivity. BI-RADS mass/non-mass enhancement, biological markers and histological grade did not contribute significantly to the prediction. Pre-NAC texture and kinetic parameters help predicting non-benefit to NAC. Further testing including larger groups of patients with different tumor subtypes is needed to improve the generalization properties and validate the performance of the predictive model
Footbridge Response Predictions and Their Sensitivity to Stochastic Load Assumptions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian
2011-01-01
Knowledge about footbridges response to actions of walking is important in assessments of vibration serviceability. In a number of design codes for footbridges, the vibration serviceability limit state is assessed using a walking load model in which the walking parameters (step frequency, pedestr......Knowledge about footbridges response to actions of walking is important in assessments of vibration serviceability. In a number of design codes for footbridges, the vibration serviceability limit state is assessed using a walking load model in which the walking parameters (step frequency...... of pedestrians for predicting footbridge response, which is meaningful, and a step forward. Modelling walking parameters stochastically, however, requires decisions to be made in terms of their statistical distribution and the parameters describing the statistical distribution. The paper investigates...... the sensitivity of results of computations of bridge response to some of the decisions to be made in this respect. This is a useful approach placing focus on which decisions (and which information) are important for sound estimation of bridge response. The studies involve estimating footbridge responses using...
Laitano, María V; Fernández-Gimenez, Analía V
2016-07-01
Bivalves have traditionally been considered good bioindicators due to their sensitivity to pollution, among other features. This characteristic is shared by several other non-bivalve species as well, though studies in this respect remain scarce. This work aims to compare biomarker sensitivity to chronic port pollution among three intertidal invertebrate species with good bioindicator characteristics. Mussels' immunological (phenoloxidase and peroxidases) and biotransformation (glutathione-S-transferase) responses were contrasted against those of limpets and barnacles. The three species under study evidenced activity of all the enzymes measured, although with differences. Barnacle Balanus glandula was the most sensitive species showing pollution modulation of the three enzymes, which suggests that mussels would not always be the best bioindicator species among marine invertebrates depending on the responses that are assessed.
Remm, Jaanus; Hanski, Ilpo K; Tuominen, Sakari; Selonen, Vesa
2017-10-01
Animals use and select habitat at multiple hierarchical levels and at different spatial scales within each level. Still, there is little knowledge on the scale effects at different spatial levels of species occupancy patterns. The objective of this study was to examine nonlinear effects and optimal-scale landscape characteristics that affect occupancy of the Siberian flying squirrel, Pteromys volans , in South- and Mid-Finland. We used presence-absence data ( n = 10,032 plots of 9 ha) and novel approach to separate the effects on site-, landscape-, and regional-level occupancy patterns. Our main results were: landscape variables predicted the placement of population patches at least twice as well as they predicted the occupancy of particular sites; the clear optimal value of preferred habitat cover for species landscape-level abundance is a surprisingly low value (10% within a 4 km buffer); landscape metrics exert different effects on species occupancy and abundance in high versus low population density regions of our study area. We conclude that knowledge of regional variation in landscape utilization will be essential for successful conservation of the species. The results also support the view that large-scale landscape variables have high predictive power in explaining species abundance. Our study demonstrates the complex response of species occurrence at different levels of population configuration on landscape structure. The study also highlights the need for data in large spatial scale to increase the precision of biodiversity mapping and prediction of future trends.
Auditory Brainstem Response to Complex Sounds Predicts Self-Reported Speech-in-Noise Performance
Anderson, Samira; Parbery-Clark, Alexandra; White-Schwoch, Travis; Kraus, Nina
2013-01-01
Purpose: To compare the ability of the auditory brainstem response to complex sounds (cABR) to predict subjective ratings of speech understanding in noise on the Speech, Spatial, and Qualities of Hearing Scale (SSQ; Gatehouse & Noble, 2004) relative to the predictive ability of the Quick Speech-in-Noise test (QuickSIN; Killion, Niquette,…
Challenges and progress in predicting biological responses to incorporated radioactivity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Howell, R. W.; Neti, P. V. S. V.; Pinto, M.; Gerashchenko, B. I.; Narra, V. R.; Azzam, E. I.
2006-01-01
Prediction of risks and therapeutic outcome in nuclear medicine largely rely on calculation of the absorbed dose. Absorbed dose specification is complex due to the wide variety of radiations emitted, non-uniform activity distribution, biokinetics, etc. Conventional organ absorbed dose estimates assumed that radioactivity is distributed uniformly throughout the organ. However, there have been dramatic improvements in dosimetry models that reflect the substructure of organs as well as tissue elements within them. These models rely on improved nuclear medicine imaging capabilities that facilitate determination of activity within voxels that represent tissue elements of ∼0.2-1 cm 3 . However, even these improved approaches assume that all cells within the tissue element receive the same dose. The tissue element may be comprised of a variety of cells having different radiosensitivities and different incorporated radioactivity. Furthermore, the extent to which non-uniform distributions of radioactivity within a small tissue element impact the absorbed dose distribution is strongly dependent on the number, type, and energy of the radiations emitted by the radionuclide. It is also necessary to know whether the dose to a given cell arises from radioactive decays within itself (self-dose) or decays in surrounding cells (cross-dose). Cellular response to self-dose can be considerably different than its response to cross-dose from the same radiopharmaceutical. Bystander effects can also play a role in the response. Evidence shows that even under conditions of 'uniform' distribution of radioactivity, a combination of organ dosimetry, voxel dosimetry and dosimetry at the cellular and multicellular levels can be required to predict response. (authors)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Katinka X. Ruthrof
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Globally, drought and heat-induced forest disturbance is garnering increasing concern. Species from Mediterranean forests have resistance and resilience mechanisms to cope with drought and differences in these ecological strategies will profoundly influence vegetation composition in response to drought. Our aim was to contrast the early response of two co-occurring forest species, Eucalyptus marginata and Corymbia calophylla, in the Northern Jarrah Forest of southwestern Australia, following a sudden and severe drought event. Forest plots were monitored for health and response, three and 16 months following the drought. Eucalyptus marginata was more susceptible to partial and complete crown dieback compared to C. calophylla, three months after the drought. However, resprouting among trees exhibiting complete crown dieback was similar between species. Overall, E. marginata trees were more likely to die from the impacts of drought, assessed at 16 months. These short-term differential responses to drought may lead to compositional shifts with increases in frequency of drought events in the future.
Identification of Predictive Response Markers and Novel Treatment Targets for Gliomas
L. Erdem-Eraslan (Lale)
2016-01-01
markdownabstractGliomas are the most frequent primary brain tumors in adults. Despite multimodality treatment strategies, the survival of patients with a diffuse glioma remains poor. There has been an increasing use of molecular markers to assist diagnosis and predict prognosis and response to
Early Detection Rapid Response Program Targets New Noxious Weed Species in Washington State
Andreas, Jennifer E.; Halpern, Alison D.; DesCamp, Wendy C.; Miller, Timothy W.
2015-01-01
Early detection, rapid response is a critical component of invasive plant management. It can be challenging, however, to detect new invaders before they become established if landowners cannot identify species of concern. In order to increase awareness, eye-catching postcards were developed in Washington State as part of a noxious weed educational…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shira Barzilay
2018-04-01
Full Text Available BackgroundMental health professionals have a pivotal role in suicide prevention. However, they also often have intense emotional responses, or countertransference, during encounters with suicidal patients. Previous studies of the Therapist Response Questionnaire-Suicide Form (TRQ-SF, a brief novel measure aimed at probing a distinct set of suicide-related emotional responses to patients found it to be predictive of near-term suicidal behavior among high suicide-risk inpatients. The purpose of this study was to validate the TRQ-SF in a general outpatient clinic setting.MethodsAdult psychiatric outpatients (N = 346 and their treating mental health professionals (N = 48 completed self-report assessments following their first clinic meeting. Clinician measures included the TRQ-SF, general emotional states and traits, therapeutic alliance, and assessment of patient suicide risk. Patient suicidal outcomes and symptom severity were assessed at intake and one-month follow-up. Following confirmatory factor analysis of the TRQ-SF, factor scores were examined for relationships with clinician and patient measures and suicidal outcomes.ResultsFactor analysis of the TRQ-SF confirmed three dimensions: (1 affiliation, (2 distress, and (3 hope. The three factors also loaded onto a single general factor of negative emotional response toward the patient that demonstrated good internal reliability. The TRQ-SF scores were associated with measures of clinician state anger and anxiety and therapeutic alliance, independently of clinician personality traits after controlling for the state- and patient-specific measures. The total score and three subscales were associated in both concurrent and predictive ways with patient suicidal outcomes, depression severity, and clinicians’ judgment of patient suicide risk, but not with global symptom severity, thus indicating specifically suicide-related responses.ConclusionThe TRQ-SF is a brief and reliable measure with a
Barzilay, Shira; Yaseen, Zimri S; Hawes, Mariah; Gorman, Bernard; Altman, Rachel; Foster, Adriana; Apter, Alan; Rosenfield, Paul; Galynker, Igor
2018-01-01
Mental health professionals have a pivotal role in suicide prevention. However, they also often have intense emotional responses, or countertransference, during encounters with suicidal patients. Previous studies of the Therapist Response Questionnaire-Suicide Form (TRQ-SF), a brief novel measure aimed at probing a distinct set of suicide-related emotional responses to patients found it to be predictive of near-term suicidal behavior among high suicide-risk inpatients. The purpose of this study was to validate the TRQ-SF in a general outpatient clinic setting. Adult psychiatric outpatients ( N = 346) and their treating mental health professionals ( N = 48) completed self-report assessments following their first clinic meeting. Clinician measures included the TRQ-SF, general emotional states and traits, therapeutic alliance, and assessment of patient suicide risk. Patient suicidal outcomes and symptom severity were assessed at intake and one-month follow-up. Following confirmatory factor analysis of the TRQ-SF, factor scores were examined for relationships with clinician and patient measures and suicidal outcomes. Factor analysis of the TRQ-SF confirmed three dimensions: (1) affiliation, (2) distress, and (3) hope. The three factors also loaded onto a single general factor of negative emotional response toward the patient that demonstrated good internal reliability. The TRQ-SF scores were associated with measures of clinician state anger and anxiety and therapeutic alliance, independently of clinician personality traits after controlling for the state- and patient-specific measures. The total score and three subscales were associated in both concurrent and predictive ways with patient suicidal outcomes, depression severity, and clinicians' judgment of patient suicide risk, but not with global symptom severity, thus indicating specifically suicide-related responses. The TRQ-SF is a brief and reliable measure with a 3-factor structure. It demonstrates
Implicit Learning Abilities Predict Treatment Response in Autism Spectrum Disorders
2015-09-01
early behavioral interventions are the most effective treatment for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), but almost half of the children do not make...behavioral intervention . 2. KEYWORDS Autism Spectrum Disorder , implicit learning, associative learning, individual differences, functional Magnetic...2 AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-14-1-0261 TITLE: Implicit Learning Abilities Predict Treatment Response in Autism Spectrum Disorders PRINCIPAL
Individual response to ionising radiation: What predictive assay(s) to choose?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Granzotto, A.; Viau, M.; Devic, C.; Maalouf, M.; Thomas, Ch.; Vogin, G.; Foray, N.; Granzotto, A.; Vogin, G.; Balosso, J.; Joubert, A.; Maalouf, M.; Vogin, G.; Colin, C.; Malek, K.; Balosso, J.; Colin, C.
2011-01-01
Individual response to ionizing radiation is an important information required to apply an efficient radiotherapy treatment against tumour and to avoid any adverse effects in normal tissues. In 1981, Fertil and Malaise have demonstrated that the post-irradiation local tumor control determined in vivo is correlated with clonogenic cell survival assessed in vitro. Furthermore, these authors have reminded the relevance of the concept of intrinsic radiosensitivity that is specific to each individual organ (Fertil and Malaise, 1981) [1]. To date, since clonogenicity assays are too time-consuming and do not provide any other molecular information, a plethora of research groups have attempted to determine the molecular bases of intrinsic radiosensitivity in order to propose reliable and faster predictive assays. To this aim, several approaches have been developed. Notably, the recent revolution in genomic and proteomics technologies is providing a considerable number of data but their link with radiosensitivity still remains to be elucidated. On another hand, the systematic screening of some candidate genes potentially involved in the radiation response is highlighting the complexity of the molecular and cellular mechanisms of DNA damage sensing and signalling and shows that an abnormal radiation response is not necessarily due to the impairment of one single protein. Finally, more modest approaches consisting in focusing some specific functions of DNA repair seem to provide more reliable clues to predict over-acute reactions caused by radiotherapy. In this review, we endeavored to analyse the contributions of these major approaches to predict human radiosensitivity. (authors)
Calvo-Alvarado, J C; McDowell, N G; Waring, R H
2008-11-01
We developed allometric equations to predict whole-tree leaf area (A(l)), leaf biomass (M(l)) and leaf area to sapwood area ratio (A(l):A(s)) in five rain forest tree species of Costa Rica: Pentaclethra macroloba (Willd.) Kuntze (Fabaceae/Mim), Carapa guianensis Aubl. (Meliaceae), Vochysia ferru-gi-nea Mart. (Vochysiaceae), Virola koshnii Warb. (Myristicaceae) and Tetragastris panamensis (Engl.) Kuntze (Burseraceae). By destructive analyses (n = 11-14 trees per species), we observed strong nonlinear allometric relationships (r(2) > or = 0.9) for predicting A(l) or M(l) from stem diameters or A(s) measured at breast height. Linear relationships were less accurate. In general, A(l):A(s) at breast height increased linearly with tree height except for Penta-clethra, which showed a negative trend. All species, however, showed increased total A(l) with height. The observation that four of the five species increased in A(l):A(s) with height is consistent with hypotheses about trade--offs between morphological and anatomical adaptations that favor efficient water flow through variation in the amount of leaf area supported by sapwood and those imposed by the need to respond quickly to light gaps in the canopy.
Lahner, D; Kabon, B; Marschalek, C; Chiari, A; Pestel, G; Kaider, A; Fleischmann, E; Hetz, H
2009-09-01
Fluid management guided by oesophageal Doppler monitor has been reported to improve perioperative outcome. Stroke volume variation (SVV) is considered a reliable clinical predictor of fluid responsiveness. Consequently, the aim of the present trial was to evaluate the accuracy of SVV determined by arterial pulse contour (APCO) analysis, using the FloTrac/Vigileo system, to predict fluid responsiveness as measured by the oesophageal Doppler. Patients undergoing major abdominal surgery received intraoperative fluid management guided by oesophageal Doppler monitoring. Fluid boluses of 250 ml each were administered in case of a decrease in corrected flow time (FTc) to 10%. The ability of SVV to predict fluid responsiveness was assessed by calculation of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Twenty patients received 67 fluid boluses. Fifty-two of the 67 fluid boluses administered resulted in fluid responsiveness. SVV achieved an area under the ROC curve of 0.512 [confidence interval (CI) 0.32-0.70]. A cut-off point for fluid responsiveness was found for SVV > or =8.5% (sensitivity: 77%; specificity: 43%; positive predictive value: 84%; and negative predictive value: 33%). This prospective, interventional observer-blinded study demonstrates that SVV obtained by APCO, using the FloTrac/Vigileo system, is not a reliable predictor of fluid responsiveness in the setting of major abdominal surgery.
Dynamical behavior of a three species food chain model with Beddington-DeAngelis functional response
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Naji, Raid Kamel; Balasim, Alla Tariq
2007-01-01
A three species food chain model with Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is investigated. The local stability analysis is carried out and global behavior is simulated numerically for a biologically feasible choice of parameters. The persistence conditions of a food chain model are established. The bifurcation diagrams are obtained for different parameters of the model after intensive numerical simulations. The results of simulations show that the model could exhibit chaotic dynamics for realistic and biologically feasible parametric values. Finally, the effect of immigration within prey species is investigated. It is observed that adding small amount of constant immigration to prey species stabilize the system
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Close Timothy J
2009-08-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Rice and barley are both members of Poaceae (grass family but have a marked difference in salt tolerance. The molecular mechanism underlying this difference was previously unexplored. This study employs a comparative genomics approach to identify analogous and contrasting gene expression patterns between rice and barley. Results A hierarchical clustering approach identified several interesting expression trajectories among rice and barley genotypes. There were no major conserved expression patterns between the two species in response to salt stress. A wheat salt-stress dataset was queried for comparison with rice and barley. Roughly one-third of the salt-stress responses of barley were conserved with wheat while overlap between wheat and rice was minimal. These results demonstrate that, at transcriptome level, rice is strikingly different compared to the more closely related barley and wheat. This apparent lack of analogous transcriptional programs in response to salt stress is further highlighted through close examination of genes associated with root growth and development. Conclusion The analysis provides support for the hypothesis that conservation of transcriptional signatures in response to environmental cues depends on the genetic similarity among the genotypes within a species, and on the phylogenetic distance between the species.
Youngsteadt, Elsa; Henderson, Ryanna C; Savage, Amy M; Ernst, Andrew F; Dunn, Robert R; Frank, Steven D
2015-03-01
Urban green spaces provide ecosystem services to city residents, but their management is hindered by a poor understanding of their ecology. We examined a novel ecosystem service relevant to urban public health and esthetics: the consumption of littered food waste by arthropods. Theory and data from natural systems suggest that the magnitude and resilience of this service should increase with biological diversity. We measured food removal by presenting known quantities of cookies, potato chips, and hot dogs in street medians (24 sites) and parks (21 sites) in New York City, USA. At the same sites, we assessed ground-arthropod diversity and abiotic conditions, including history of flooding during Hurricane Sandy 7 months prior to the study. Arthropod diversity was greater in parks (on average 11 hexapod families and 4.7 ant species per site), than in medians (nine hexapod families and 2.7 ant species per site). However, counter to our diversity-based prediction, arthropods in medians removed 2-3 times more food per day than did those in parks. We detected no effect of flooding (at 19 sites) on this service. Instead, greater food removal was associated with the presence of the introduced pavement ant (Tetramorium sp. E) and with hotter, drier conditions that may have increased arthropod metabolism. When vertebrates also had access to food, more was removed, indicating that arthropods and vertebrates compete for littered food. We estimate that arthropods alone could remove 4-6.5 kg of food per year in a single street median, reducing its availability to less desirable fauna such as rats. Our results suggest that species identity and habitat may be more relevant than diversity for predicting urban ecosystem services. Even small green spaces such as street medians provide ecosystem services that may complement those of larger habitat patches across the urban landscape. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Wang, Wen J; He, Hong S; Thompson, Frank R; Spetich, Martin A; Fraser, Jacob S
2018-09-01
Demographic processes (fecundity, dispersal, colonization, growth, and mortality) and their interactions with environmental changes are not well represented in current climate-distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models) and constitute a large uncertainty in projections of future tree species distribution shifts. We investigate how species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity affect species distribution shifts. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest dynamic model LANDIS PRO, which incorporates site-scale tree species demography and competition, landscape-scale dispersal and disturbances, and regional-scale abiotic controls, to simulate the distribution shifts of four representative tree species with distinct biological traits in the central hardwood forest region of United States. Our results suggested that biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age) were important for determining tree species distribution shifts. Environmental heterogeneity, on average, reduced shift rates by 8% compared to perfect environmental conditions. The average distribution shift rates ranged from 24 to 200myear -1 under climate change scenarios, implying that many tree species may not able to keep up with climate change because of limited dispersal capacity, long generation time, and environmental heterogeneity. We suggest that climate-distribution models should include species demographic processes (e.g., fecundity, dispersal, colonization), biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age), and environmental heterogeneity (e.g., habitat fragmentation) to improve future predictions of species distribution shifts in response to changing climates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
From Vivaldi to Beatles and back: predicting lateralized brain responses to music.
Alluri, Vinoo; Toiviainen, Petri; Lund, Torben E; Wallentin, Mikkel; Vuust, Peter; Nandi, Asoke K; Ristaniemi, Tapani; Brattico, Elvira
2013-12-01
We aimed at predicting the temporal evolution of brain activity in naturalistic music listening conditions using a combination of neuroimaging and acoustic feature extraction. Participants were scanned using functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) while listening to two musical medleys, including pieces from various genres with and without lyrics. Regression models were built to predict voxel-wise brain activations which were then tested in a cross-validation setting in order to evaluate the robustness of the hence created models across stimuli. To further assess the generalizability of the models we extended the cross-validation procedure by including another dataset, which comprised continuous fMRI responses of musically trained participants to an Argentinean tango. Individual models for the two musical medleys revealed that activations in several areas in the brain belonging to the auditory, limbic, and motor regions could be predicted. Notably, activations in the medial orbitofrontal region and the anterior cingulate cortex, relevant for self-referential appraisal and aesthetic judgments, could be predicted successfully. Cross-validation across musical stimuli and participant pools helped identify a region of the right superior temporal gyrus, encompassing the planum polare and the Heschl's gyrus, as the core structure that processed complex acoustic features of musical pieces from various genres, with or without lyrics. Models based on purely instrumental music were able to predict activation in the bilateral auditory cortices, parietal, somatosensory, and left hemispheric primary and supplementary motor areas. The presence of lyrics on the other hand weakened the prediction of activations in the left superior temporal gyrus. Our results suggest spontaneous emotion-related processing during naturalistic listening to music and provide supportive evidence for the hemispheric specialization for categorical sounds with realistic stimuli. We herewith introduce
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yun Zhang
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Improved understanding of climate-growth relationships of multiple species is fundamental to understanding and predicting the response of forest growth to future climate change. Forests are mainly composed of conifers in Northwestern Yunnan Plateau, but variations of growth response to climate conditions among the species are not well understood. To detect the growth response of multiple species to climate change, we developed residual chronologies of four major conifers, i.e., George’s fir (Abies georgei Orr, Likiang spruce (Picea likiangensis (Franch. E.Pritz., Gaoshan pine (Pinus densata Mast. and Chinese larch (Larix potaninii Batalin at the upper distributional limits in Shika Snow Mountain. Using the dendroclimatology method, we analyzed correlations between the residual chronologies and climate variables. The results showed that conifer radial growth was influenced by both temperature and precipitation in Shika Snow Mountain. Previous November temperature, previous July temperature, and current May precipitation were the common climatic factors that had consistent influences on radial growth of the four species. Temperature in the previous post-growing season (September–October and moisture conditions in the current growing season (June–August were the common climatic factors that had divergent impacts on the radial growth of the four species. Based on the predictions of climate models and our understanding of the growth response of four species to climate variables, we may understand the growth response to climate change at the species level. It is difficult to predict future forest growth in the study area, since future climate change might cause both increases and decreases for the four species and indirect effects of climate change on forests should be considered.
Aynousah, Arwa
2017-06-01
Harmful algae studies, in particular toxic dinoflagellates, and their response to global warming in the Red Sea are still limited. This study was aimed to be the first to characterize the identity, thermal responses and toxin production of four Prorocentrum strains isolated from the Central Red Sea, Saudi Arabia. Morphological and molecular phylogenetic analysis identified the strains as P. elegans, P. rhathymum and P. emarginatum. However, the identity of strain P. sp.6 is currently unresolved, albeit sharing close affinity with P. leve. Growth experiments showed that all species could grow at 24-32°C, but only P. sp.6 survived the 34°C treatment. The optimum temperatures (Topt) estimated from the Gaussian model corresponded to 27.17, 29.33, 26.87, and 27.64°C for P. sp.6, P. elegans, P. rhathymum and P. emarginatum, respectively. However, some discrepancy with the Topt derived from the growth performance were observed for P. elegans and P. emarginatum, as thermal responses differed from the typical Gaussian fit. The Prorocentrum species examined showed a sharp decrease after the optimum temperature resulting in very high activation energies for the fall slope, especially for P. elegans and P. emarginatum. The minimum critical temperature limit for growth was not detected within the range of temperatures examined. Subsequently, high performance liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS) analysis revealed all species as non okadaic acid (OA, common toxin of the Prorocentrum genus) producers at any temperature treatment. However, other forms of toxin (i.e. fast acting toxins) not examined here could be produced. Therefore, further investigations are required. The results of this study provided significant contribution to our knowledge regarding the presence, thermal response and toxin production of four Prorocentrum species from the Central Red Sea, Saudi Arabia.
Response of Bird Community to Various Plantation Forests in Gunung Walat, West Java, Indonesia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aronika Kaban
2017-04-01
Full Text Available Different plantation forests possibly harbor different bird communities. This study was aimed to reveal responses of bird community to the different plantation (Schima wallichii, Agathis loranthifolia, Pinus merkusii, and mixed plantation, identify species shared in all plantation, and species confined to a particular plantation. The study site was plantation forests, using the point count method for 64 effective hours. There were 40 bird species (maximum prediction 52 in all forest plantations and each type had 26–31 species. Number of individuals, species density, and diversity index in Schima plantation were higher, followed by Agathis, Pinus, and mixed plantations. Mixed plantation could have harbored more species based on the prediction by Chao. Although there were some differences in tree species, tree sizes, and tree heights, the response of bird composition in all plantations was not differed (93–81% similarity probably because of the short distances among the forests, the abundance of food insects, and the same late-successional stages. There were 15 (37.5% widely distributed species in all forest types. Eight species were confined only to a specific forest type. Four species were considered true confined species, namely Javan sunbird (Schima forest, Grey-cheeked bulbul (in Pinus, Crescent-chested babbler (Agathis, and Mountain white-eye (Agathis.
Engst, Karina; Baasch, Annett; Bruelheide, Helge
2017-09-01
Species-rich semi-natural grasslands are highly endangered habitats in Central Europe and numerous restoration efforts have been made to compensate for the losses in the last decades. However, some plant species could become more easily established than others. The establishment success of 37 species was analyzed over 6 years at two study sites of a restoration project in Germany where hay transfer and sowing of threshing material in combination with additional sowing were applied. The effects of the restoration method applied, time since the restoration took place, traits related to germination, dispersal, and reproduction, and combinations of these traits on the establishment were analyzed. While the specific restoration method of how seeds were transferred played a subordinate role, the establishment success depended in particular on traits such as flower season or the lifeform. Species flowering in autumn, such as Pastinaca sativa and Serratula tinctoria , became established better than species flowering in other seasons, probably because they could complete their life cycle, resulting in increasingly stronger seed pressure with time. Geophytes, like Allium angulosum and Galium boreale , became established very poorly, but showed an increase with study duration. For various traits, we found significant trait by method and trait by year interactions, indicating that different traits promoted establishment under different conditions. Using a multi-model approach, we tested whether traits acted in combination. For the first years and the last year, we found that models with three traits explained establishment success better than models with a single trait or two traits. While traits had only an additive effect on the establishment success in the first years, trait interactions became important thereafter. The most important trait was the season of flowering, which occurred in all best models from the third year onwards. Overall, our approach revealed the
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yamaguchi, Tetsuji
2000-11-01
The solubility determines the release of a radionuclide from waste form and is used as a source term in radionuclide migration analysis in performance assessment of radioactive waste repository. Complexations of the radionuclide by ligands in groundwater affect the interaction between radionuclides and geologic media, thus affect their migration behavior. It is essential to estimate the solubility and to predict the chemical species for the radionuclide based on thermodynamic data. The thermodynamic data of aqueous species and compounds were reviewed and compiled for Np and Pu. Thermodynamic data were reviewed with emphasis on the hydrolysis and carbonate complexation that can dominate the speciation in groundwater. Thermodynamic data for other species were selected based on existing databases. Thermodynamic data for other important elements are under investigation, thus shown in an appendix for temporary use. (author)
Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G.; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; Putten, Van Ingrid E.; Pecl, Gretta T.
2016-01-01
As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species – or range shifts – across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of
Evaluating the sources of potential migrant species: implications under climate change
Ines Ibanez; James S. Clark; Michael C. Dietze
2008-01-01
As changes in climate become more apparent, ecologists face the challenge of predicting species responses to the new conditions. Most forecasts are based on climate envelopes (CE), correlative approaches that project future distributions on the basis of the current climate often assuming some dispersal lag. One major caveat with this approach is that it ignores the...
Kleindienst, Nikolaus; Limberger, Matthias F; Ebner-Priemer, Ulrich W; Keibel-Mauchnik, Jana; Dyer, Anne; Berger, Mathias; Schmahl, Christian; Bohus, Martin
2011-08-01
A substantial proportion of Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) patients respond by a marked decrease of psychopathology when treated with Dialectical Behavioral Therapy (DBT). To further enhance the rate of DBT-response, it is useful to identify characteristics related to unsatisfactory response. As DBT relies on emotional learning, we explored whether dissociation-which is known to interfere with learning- predicts poor response to DBT. Fifty-seven Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) patients (DSM-IV) were prospectively observed during a three-month inpatient DBT program. Pre-post improvements in general psychopathology (SCL-90-R) were predicted from baseline scores of the Dissociative Experiences Scale (DES) by regression models accounting for baseline psychopathology. High DES-scores were related to poor pre-post improvement (β = -0.017 ± 0.006, p = 0.008). The data yielded no evidence that some facets of dissociation are more important in predicting DBT-response than others. The results suggest that dissociation in borderline-patients should be closely monitored and targeted during DBT. At this stage, research on treatment of dissociation (e.g., specific skills training) is warranted.
Archambault, Jennifer M.; Cope, W. Gregory; Kwak, Thomas J.
2018-01-01
AimStudies of species' range shifts have become increasingly relevant for understanding ecology and biogeography in the face of accelerated global change. The combination of limited mobility and imperilled status places some species at a potentially greater risk of range loss, extirpation or extinction due to climate change. To assess the ability of organisms with limited movement and dispersal capabilities to track shifts associated with climate change, we evaluated reproductive and dispersal traits of freshwater mussels (Unionida), sessile invertebrates that require species‐specific fish for larval dispersal.LocationNorth American Atlantic Slope rivers.MethodsTo understand how unionid mussels may cope with and adapt to current and future warming trends, we identified mechanisms that facilitated their colonization of the northern Atlantic Slope river basins in North America after the Last Glacial Maximum. We compiled species occurrence and life history trait information for each of 55 species, and then selected life history traits for which ample data were available (larval brooding duration, host fish specificity, host infection strategy, and body size) and analysed whether the trait state for each was related to mussel distribution in Atlantic Slope rivers.ResultsBrooding duration (p .10).Main conclusionsOur results are potentially applicable to many species for which life history traits have not been well‐documented, because reproductive and dispersal traits in unionid mussels typically follow phylogenetic relationships. These findings may help resource managers prioritize species according to climate change vulnerability and predict which species might become further imperilled with climate warming. Finally, we suggest that similar trait‐based decision support frameworks may be applicable for other movement limited taxa.
Response of Sphagna to the changing environment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vasander, H [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology; Jauhiainen, J; Silvola, J [Joensuu Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Biology; Karsisto, M [Finnish Forest Research Inst., Vantaa (Finland)
1997-12-31
During last decade, considerable interest has been focused to assess the influence of human activities on ecosystems. The increasing trend in the atmospheric concentration of CO{sub 2} has been predicted to continue till the next century and the amount of nitrogen deposition in the northern hemisphere has increased markedly. Substantial interest has been focused on predicting how these changes will affect on plants. Most boreal mire ecosystems are dominated by mosses of the genus Sphagnum, the litter of which constitutes the main component in the peat deposits and is an important CO{sub 2} sink via peat formation. Since virtually nothing was known about the growth response of peat mosses to elevated concentrations of CO{sub 2} and alerting changes in species composition were detected in the sensitive ombrotrophic mire vegetation under increased N deposition in central Europe, this study was established. Laboratory experiments focused on measurements of the patterns of growth, production and plant metabolism at increased CO{sub 2} and N deposition levels in peat moss species. Long term field experiments were established to study the growth response and spatial competition of two interacting Sphagnum species under the increased nitrogen deposition levels
Response of Sphagna to the changing environment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vasander, H. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology; Jauhiainen, J.; Silvola, J. [Joensuu Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Biology; Karsisto, M. [Finnish Forest Research Inst., Vantaa (Finland)
1996-12-31
During last decade, considerable interest has been focused to assess the influence of human activities on ecosystems. The increasing trend in the atmospheric concentration of CO{sub 2} has been predicted to continue till the next century and the amount of nitrogen deposition in the northern hemisphere has increased markedly. Substantial interest has been focused on predicting how these changes will affect on plants. Most boreal mire ecosystems are dominated by mosses of the genus Sphagnum, the litter of which constitutes the main component in the peat deposits and is an important CO{sub 2} sink via peat formation. Since virtually nothing was known about the growth response of peat mosses to elevated concentrations of CO{sub 2} and alerting changes in species composition were detected in the sensitive ombrotrophic mire vegetation under increased N deposition in central Europe, this study was established. Laboratory experiments focused on measurements of the patterns of growth, production and plant metabolism at increased CO{sub 2} and N deposition levels in peat moss species. Long term field experiments were established to study the growth response and spatial competition of two interacting Sphagnum species under the increased nitrogen deposition levels
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hanba, Y.T.; Wada, E. [Center for Ecological Research, Kyoto University, Kyoto (Japan); Osaki, M.; Nakamura, T. [Faculty of Agriculture, Hokkaido University, Hokkaido (Japan)
1996-04-01
The responses of plant growth and carbon isotope discrimination ({Delta}) to elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations for several crop species (lettuce: Lactuca sativa L.; corn: Zea Mays L. var. P3540, wheat: Triticum aestivum L. var Haruyutaka; and soybean: Glycine Max (L). Merr. var. Kitamusume) were investigated. Shoot relative growth rate was used to indicate plant growth, and {delta}{sup 13}C value of leaf materials in corn (C4 species) was used to calculate {Delta} for C3 species. Plant growth was stimulated by enriched CO{sub 2}, while {Delta} remained almost constant as CO{sub 2} concentration changed. {Delta} showed interspecific difference, and the plant species of larger {Delta} had larger relative growth rates. Relative growth rates of the plants of larger {Delta} were stimulated by CO{sub 2} enrichment more than those of the plants of smaller {Delta}. We propose that plant {Delta} could be a possible parameter to assess the interspecific difference of plant response to the increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations. 3 figs., 2 tabs., 25 refs.
Mu, Yunsong; Wu, Fengchang; Chen, Cheng; Liu, Yuedan; Zhao, Xiaoli; Haiqing Liao; Giesy, John P
2014-05-01
Criteria continuous concentrations (CCCs) are useful for describing chronic exposure to pollutants and setting water quality standards to protect aquatic life. However, because of financial, practical, or ethical restrictions on toxicity testing, few data are available to derive CCCs. In this study, CCCs for 34 metals or metalloids were derived using quantitative ion character-activity relationships-species sensitivity distributions (QICAR-SSD) and the final acute-chronic ratio (FACR) method. The results showed that chronic toxic potencies were correlated with several physico-chemical properties among eight species chosen, where the softness index was the most predictive characteristic. Predicted CCCs for most of the metals, except for Lead and Iron, were within a range of 10-fold of values recommended by the U.S. EPA. The QICAR-SSD model was superior to the FACR method for prediction of data-poor metals. This would have significance for predicting toxic potencies and criteria thresholds of more metals or metalloids. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Arana, María V; Gonzalez-Polo, Marina; Martinez-Meier, Alejandro; Gallo, Leonardo A; Benech-Arnold, Roberto L; Sánchez, Rodolfo A; Batlla, Diego
2016-01-01
Seeds integrate environmental cues that modulate their dormancy and germination. Although many mechanisms have been identified in laboratory experiments, their contribution to germination dynamics in existing communities and their involvement in defining species habitats remain elusive. By coupling mathematical models with ecological data we investigated the contribution of seed temperature responses to the dynamics of germination of three Nothofagus species that are sharply distributed across different altitudes in the Patagonian Andes. Seed responsiveness to temperature of the three Nothofagus species was linked to the thermal characteristics of their preferred ecological niche. In their natural distribution range, there was overlap in the timing of germination of the species, which was restricted to mid-spring. By contrast, outside their species distribution range, germination was temporally uncoupled with altitude. This phenomenon was described mathematically by the interplay between interspecific differences in seed population thermal parameters and the range in soil thermic environments across different altitudes. The observed interspecific variations in seed responsiveness to temperature and its environmental regulation, constitute a major determinant of the dynamics of Nothofagus germination across elevations. This phenomenon likely contributes to the maintenance of patterns of species abundance across altitude by placing germinated seeds in a favorable environment for plant growth. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.
McCluney, Kevin E.; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L.; González, Angélica L.; Hagen, Elizabeth M.; Holland, J. Nathaniel; Kotler, Burt P.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Smith, Stanley D.; Wolf, Blair O.
2012-01-01
Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts
McCluney, Kevin E; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L; González, Angélica L; Hagen, Elizabeth M; Nathaniel Holland, J; Kotler, Burt P; Maestre, Fernando T; Smith, Stanley D; Wolf, Blair O
2012-08-01
Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts
Environmental variation and population responses to global change
Lawson, Callum R.; Vindenes, Yngvild; Bailey, Liam; van de Pol, Martijn
2015-01-01
Species' responses to environmental changes such as global warming are affected not only by trends in mean conditions, but also by natural and human-induced environmental fluctuations. Methods are needed to predict how such environmental variation affects ecological and evolutionary processes, in
Duan, Honglang; O'Grady, Anthony P; Duursma, Remko A; Choat, Brendan; Huang, Guomin; Smith, Renee A; Jiang, Yanan; Tissue, David T
2015-07-01
Future climate regimes characterized by rising [CO2], rising temperatures and associated droughts may differentially affect tree growth and physiology. However, the interactive effects of these three factors are complex because elevated [CO2] and elevated temperature may generate differential physiological responses during drought. To date, the interactive effects of elevated [CO2] and elevated temperature on drought-induced tree mortality remain poorly understood in gymnosperm species that differ in stomatal regulation strategies. Water relations and carbon dynamics were examined in two species with contrasting stomatal regulation strategies: Pinus radiata D. Don (relatively isohydric gymnosperm; regulating stomata to maintain leaf water potential above critical thresholds) and Callitris rhomboidea R. Br (relatively anisohydric gymnosperm; allowing leaf water potential to decline as the soil dries), to assess response to drought as a function of [CO2] and temperature. Both species were grown in two [CO2] (C(a) (ambient, 400 μl l(-1)) and C(e) (elevated, 640 μl l(-1))) and two temperature (T(a) (ambient) and T(e) (ambient +4 °C)) treatments in a sun-lit glasshouse under well-watered conditions. Drought plants were then exposed to a progressive drought until mortality. Prior to mortality, extensive xylem cavitation occurred in both species, but significant depletion of non-structural carbohydrates was not observed in either species. Te resulted in faster mortality in P. radiata, but it did not modify the time-to-mortality in C. rhomboidea. C(e) did not delay the time-to-mortality in either species under drought or T(e) treatments. In summary, elevated temperature (+4 °C) had greater influence than elevated [CO2] (+240 μl l(-1)) on drought responses of the two studied gymnosperm species, while stomatal regulation strategies did not generally affect the relative contributions of hydraulic failure and carbohydrate depletion to mortality under severe drought.
Baseline 18F-FDG PET image-derived parameters for therapy response prediction in oesophageal cancer
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hatt, Mathieu; Visvikis, Dimitris; Cheze-le Rest, Catherine; Pradier, Olivier
2011-01-01
The objectives of this study were to investigate the predictive value of tumour measurements on 2-deoxy-2-[ 18 F]fluoro-D-glucose ( 18 F-FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) pretreatment scan regarding therapy response in oesophageal cancer and to evaluate the impact of tumour delineation strategies. Fifty patients with oesophageal cancer treated with concomitant radiochemotherapy between 2004 and 2008 were retrospectively considered and classified as complete, partial or non-responders (including stable and progressive disease) according to Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST). The classification of partial and complete responders was confirmed by biopsy. Tumours were delineated on the 18 F-FDG pretreatment scan using an adaptive threshold and the automatic fuzzy locally adaptive Bayesian (FLAB) methodologies. Several parameters were then extracted: maximum and peak standardized uptake value (SUV), tumour longitudinal length (TL) and volume (TV), SUV mean , and total lesion glycolysis (TLG = TV x SUV mean ). The correlation between each parameter and response was investigated using Kruskal-Wallis tests, and receiver-operating characteristic methodology was used to assess performance of the parameters to differentiate patients. Whereas commonly used parameters such as SUV measurements were not significant predictive factors of the response, parameters related to tumour functional spatial extent (TL, TV, TLG) allowed significant differentiation of all three groups of patients, independently of the delineation strategy, and could identify complete and non-responders with sensitivity above 75% and specificity above 85%. A systematic although not statistically significant trend was observed regarding the hierarchy of the delineation methodologies and the parameters considered, with slightly higher predictive value obtained with FLAB over adaptive thresholding, and TLG over TV and TL. TLG is a promising predictive factor of concomitant
Predicting ecosystem vulnerability to biodiversity loss from community composition.
Heilpern, Sebastian A; Weeks, Brian C; Naeem, Shahid
2018-05-01
Ecosystems vary widely in their responses to biodiversity change, with some losing function dramatically while others are highly resilient. However, generalizations about how species- and community-level properties determine these divergent ecosystem responses have been elusive because potential sources of variation (e.g., trophic structure, compensation, functional trait diversity) are rarely evaluated in conjunction. Ecosystem vulnerability, or the likely change in ecosystem function following biodiversity change, is influenced by two types of species traits: response traits that determine species' individual sensitivities to environmental change, and effect traits that determine a species' contribution to ecosystem function. Here we extend the response-effect trait framework to quantify ecosystem vulnerability and show how trophic structure, within-trait variance, and among-trait covariance affect ecosystem vulnerability by linking extinction order and functional compensation. Using in silico trait-based simulations we found that ecosystem vulnerability increased when response and effect traits positively covaried, but this increase was attenuated by decreasing trait variance. Contrary to expectations, in these communities, both functional diversity and trophic structure increased ecosystem vulnerability. In contrast, ecosystem functions were resilient when response and effect traits covaried negatively, and variance had a positive effect on resiliency. Our results suggest that although biodiversity loss is often associated with decreases in ecosystem functions, such effects are conditional on trophic structure, and the variation within and covariation among response and effect traits. Taken together, these three factors can predict when ecosystems are poised to lose or gain function with ongoing biodiversity change. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.
Yang, Fan; Wang, Yong; Miao, Ling-Feng
2010-08-01
Cuttings of Populus kangdingensis C. Wang et Tung and Populus cathayana Rehder were examined during a single growing season in a greenhouse for comparative analysis of their physiological and proteomic responses to drought stress. The said species originate from high and low altitudes, respectively, of the eastern Himalaya. Results revealed that the adaptive responses to drought stress vary between the two poplar species. As a consequence of drought stress, the stem height increment and leaf number increment are more significantly inhibited in P. cathayana compared with P. kangdingensis. On the other hand, in response to drought stress, more significant cellular damages such as reduction in leaf relative water content and CO(2) assimilation rate, increments in the contents of malondialdehyde and hydrogen peroxide and downregulation or degradation of proteins related to photosynthesis occur in P. cathayana compared with P. kangdingensis. On the other hand, P. kangdingensis can cope better with the negative impact on the entire regulatory network. This includes more efficient increases in content of solute sugar, soluble protein and free proline and activities of antioxidant enzymes, as well as specific expressions of certain proteins related to protein processing, redox homeostasis and sugar metabolism. Morphological consequences as well as physiological and proteomic responses to drought stress between species revealed that P. kangdingensis originating from a high altitude manifest stronger drought adaptation than did P. cathayana originating from a low altitude. Functions of various proteins identified by proteomic experiment are related with physiological phenomena. Physiological and proteomic responses to drought stress in poplar may work cooperatively to establish a new cellular homeostasis, allowing poplar to develop a certain level of drought tolerance.