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Sample records for predicting postoperative risk

  1. Risk Prediction Model for Severe Postoperative Complication in Bariatric Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenberg, Erik; Cao, Yang; Szabo, Eva; Näslund, Erik; Näslund, Ingmar; Ottosson, Johan

    2018-01-12

    Factors associated with risk for adverse outcome are important considerations in the preoperative assessment of patients for bariatric surgery. As yet, prediction models based on preoperative risk factors have not been able to predict adverse outcome sufficiently. This study aimed to identify preoperative risk factors and to construct a risk prediction model based on these. Patients who underwent a bariatric surgical procedure in Sweden between 2010 and 2014 were identified from the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry (SOReg). Associations between preoperative potential risk factors and severe postoperative complications were analysed using a logistic regression model. A multivariate model for risk prediction was created and validated in the SOReg for patients who underwent bariatric surgery in Sweden, 2015. Revision surgery (standardized OR 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-0.24, p prediction model. Despite high specificity, the sensitivity of the model was low. Revision surgery, high age, low BMI, large waist circumference, and dyspepsia/GERD were associated with an increased risk for severe postoperative complication. The prediction model based on these factors, however, had a sensitivity that was too low to predict risk in the individual patient case.

  2. The risk of severe postoperative pain: Modification and validation of a clinical prediction rule

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, Kristel J. M.; Kalkman, Cor J.; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Bonsel, Gouke J.; Moons, Karel G. M.; Vergouwe, Yvonne

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Recently, a prediction rule was developed to preoperatively predict the risk of severe pain in the first postoperative hour in surgical inpatients. We aimed to modify the rule to enhance its use in both surgical inpatients and outpatients (ambulatory patients). Subsequently, we

  3. Prediction of chronic post-operative pain: pre-operative DNIC testing identifies patients at risk.

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    Yarnitsky, David; Crispel, Yonathan; Eisenberg, Elon; Granovsky, Yelena; Ben-Nun, Alon; Sprecher, Elliot; Best, Lael-Anson; Granot, Michal

    2008-08-15

    Surgical and medical procedures, mainly those associated with nerve injuries, may lead to chronic persistent pain. Currently, one cannot predict which patients undergoing such procedures are 'at risk' to develop chronic pain. We hypothesized that the endogenous analgesia system is key to determining the pattern of handling noxious events, and therefore testing diffuse noxious inhibitory control (DNIC) will predict susceptibility to develop chronic post-thoracotomy pain (CPTP). Pre-operative psychophysical tests, including DNIC assessment (pain reduction during exposure to another noxious stimulus at remote body area), were conducted in 62 patients, who were followed 29.0+/-16.9 weeks after thoracotomy. Logistic regression revealed that pre-operatively assessed DNIC efficiency and acute post-operative pain intensity were two independent predictors for CPTP. Efficient DNIC predicted lower risk of CPTP, with OR 0.52 (0.33-0.77 95% CI, p=0.0024), i.e., a 10-point numerical pain scale (NPS) reduction halves the chance to develop chronic pain. Higher acute pain intensity indicated OR of 1.80 (1.28-2.77, p=0.0024) predicting nearly a double chance to develop chronic pain for each 10-point increase. The other psychophysical measures, pain thresholds and supra-threshold pain magnitudes, did not predict CPTP. For prediction of acute post-operative pain intensity, DNIC efficiency was not found significant. Effectiveness of the endogenous analgesia system obtained at a pain-free state, therefore, seems to reflect the individual's ability to tackle noxious events, identifying patients 'at risk' to develop post-intervention chronic pain. Applying this diagnostic approach before procedures that might generate pain may allow individually tailored pain prevention and management, which may substantially reduce suffering.

  4. Can the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score predict postoperative complications other than mortality?

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    Major, Piotr; Wysocki, Michał; Pędziwiatr, Michał; Małczak, Piotr; Pisarska, Magdalena; Migaczewski, Marcin; Winiarski, Marek; Budzyński, Andrzej

    2016-01-01

    Laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) and laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB) are bariatric procedures with acceptable risk of postoperative morbidities and mortalities, but identification of high-risk patients is an ongoing issue. DeMaria et al. introduced the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score (OS-MRS), which was designed for mortality risk assessment but not perioperative morbidity risk. To assess the possibility to use the OS-MRS to predict the risk of perioperative complications related to LSG and LRYGB. Retrospective analysis of patients operated on for morbid obesity was performed. Patients were evaluated before and after surgery. We included 408 patients (233 LSG, 175 LRYGB). Perioperative complications were defined as adverse effects in the 30-day period. The Clavien-Dindo scale was used for description of complications. Patients were assigned to five grades and three classes according to the OS-MRS results, then risk of morbidity was analyzed. Complications were observed in 30 (7.35%) patients. Similar morbidity was related to both procedures (OR = 1.14, 95% CI: 0.53-2.44, p = 0.744). The reoperation and mortality rates were 1.23% and 0.49% respectively. There were no significant differences in median OS-MRS value between the group without and the group with perioperative complications. There were no significant differences in OS-MRS between groups (p = 0.091). Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score was not related to Clavien-Dindo grades (p = 0.800). It appears that OS-MRS is not useful in predicting risk of perioperative morbidity after bariatric procedures.

  5. Surgical Apgar Score Predicts Postoperative Complications in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    complications were determined during the thirty day post operative period. ... An ideal model to predict postoperative complications ... their SAS for purposes of risk stratification; high risk. (0-4), medium .... surgical audit (9,14). Serial monitoring ...

  6. Predictive risk factors of postoperative urinary incontinence following holmium laser enucleation of the prostate during the initial learning period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuichiro Kobayashi

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Purpose: To determine the predictive factors for postoperative urinary incontinence (UI following holmium laser enucleation of the prostate (HoLEP during the initial learning period. Patients and Methods: We evaluated 127 patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia who underwent HoLEP between January 2011 and December 2013. We recorded clinical variables, including blood loss, serum prostate-specific antigen levels, and the presence or absence of UI. Blood loss was estimated as a decline in postoperative hemoglobin levels. The predictive factors for postoperative UI were determined using a multivariable logistic regression analysis. Results: Postoperative UI occurred in 31 patients (24.4%, but it cured in 29 patients (93.5% after a mean duration of 12 weeks. Enucleation time >100 min (p=0.043 and blood loss >2.5g/dL (p=0.032 were identified as significant and independent risk factors for postoperative UI. Conclusions: Longer enucleation time and increased blood loss were independent predictors of postoperative UI in patients who underwent HoLEP during the initial learning period. Surgeons in training should take care to perform speedy enucleation maneuver with hemostasis.

  7. Prediction of postoperative pain after percutaneous nephrolithotomy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Katja Venborg; Olesen, Anne Estrup; Osther, Palle Jørn Sloth

    2013-01-01

    Postoperative pain remains a significant problem and the individual variance in postoperative pain is not fully understood. In recent years, there has been focus on identifying risk factors predicting patients with high postoperative pain intensity or consumption of analgesics, which may facilitate...... thresholds were measured using electrical (single and 5 repeated) and pressure pain stimulation over the flank bilaterally (stone-side = operation side and control-side = non-operation side). Postoperative pain scores were recorded on a numerical rating scale and analgesic consumption was registered....... The responses to repeated electrical stimuli (temporal summation) were preoperatively increased on the stone-side compared to the control-side (P = 0.016). Preoperative electrical pain thresholds from the control-side correlated inversely with postoperative opioid consumption (single stimuli: ρ = -0.43, P

  8. Development and validation of a risk score to predict the probability of postoperative vomiting in pediatric patients: the VPOP score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourdaud, Nathalie; Devys, Jean-Michel; Bientz, Jocelyne; Lejus, Corinne; Hebrard, Anne; Tirel, Olivier; Lecoutre, Damien; Sabourdin, Nada; Nivoche, Yves; Baujard, Catherine; Nikasinovic, Lydia; Orliaguet, Gilles A

    2014-09-01

    Few data are available in the literature on risk factors for postoperative vomiting (POV) in children. The aim of the study was to establish independent risk factors for POV and to construct a pediatric specific risk score to predict POV in children. Characteristics of 2392 children operated under general anesthesia were recorded. The dataset was randomly split into an evaluation set (n = 1761), analyzed with a multivariate analysis including logistic regression and backward stepwise procedure, and a validation set (n = 450), used to confirm the accuracy of prediction using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROCAUC ), to optimize sensitivity and specificity. The overall incidence of POV was 24.1%. Five independent risk factors were identified: stratified age (>3 and 13 years: adjusted OR 2.46 [95% CI 1.75-3.45]; ≥6 and ≤13 years: aOR 3.09 [95% CI 2.23-4.29]), duration of anesthesia (aOR 1.44 [95% IC 1.06-1.96]), surgery at risk (aOR 2.13 [95% IC 1.49-3.06]), predisposition to POV (aOR 1.81 [95% CI 1.43-2.31]), and multiple opioids doses (aOR 2.76 [95% CI 2.06-3.70], P risk score ranged from 0 to 6. The model yielded a ROCAUC of 0.73 [95% CI 0.67-0.78] when applied to the validation dataset. Independent risk factors for POV were identified and used to create a new score to predict which children are at high risk of POV. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. The 25-question Geriatric Locomotive Function Scale predicts the risk of recurrent falls in postoperative patients with cervical myelopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimura, Atsushi; Takeshita, Katsushi; Inoue, Hirokazu; Seichi, Atsushi; Kawasaki, Yosuke; Yoshii, Toshitaka; Inose, Hiroyuki; Furuya, Takeo; Takeuchi, Kazuhiro; Matsunaga, Shunji; Seki, Shoji; Tsushima, Mikito; Imagama, Shiro; Koda, Masao; Yamazaki, Masashi; Mori, Kanji; Nishimura, Hirosuke; Endo, Kenji; Yamada, Kei; Sato, Kimiaki; Okawa, Atsushi

    2018-01-01

    Fall-induced injuries represent a major public health concern for older individuals. The relationship between risk of falling and the severity of locomotive syndrome (LS) remains largely unknown. We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients who had undergone surgery from January 2012 to December 2013 and completed at least 1 year of follow-up at 12 participating institutes. Patients completed a questionnaire survey regarding their fall experience during a routine postoperative follow-up. Questionnaire items included the number of falls during the prior postoperative year and the 25-question Geriatric Locomotive Function Scale (GLFS-25). The severity of cervical myelopathy was assessed using the Japanese Orthopaedic Association (JOA) score. We analyzed the association between the incidence of falling and the severity of LS measured by the GLFS-25. Of 360 patients, 61 (16.9%) experienced 1 fall; 31 (8.6%), 2-3 falls; 4 (1.1%), 4-5 falls; and 6 (1.7%), ≥6 falls during the first postoperative year. Thus, 102 (28%) patients experienced at least 1 fall, and 41 (11%) experienced recurrent falls (2 or more falls) during the time period. The mean GLFS-25 score was 30.2 ± 22.7, and 242 (62%) patients had GLFS-25 scores of 16 or higher, which fulfilled the diagnostic criteria for LS. When subjects were categorized into recurrent fallers and non-recurrent fallers, recurrent fallers had a significantly higher GLFS-25 score and a significantly lower extremity motor function score of the JOA score than non-recurrent fallers. The GLFS-25 and lower extremity motor function score of the JOA score yielded the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.674 and 0.607, respectively, to differentiate recurrent fallers from non-recurrent fallers. Postoperative patients with cervical myelopathy had a 62% prevalence of LS. The GLFS-25 may be useful to predict the risk of recurrent falls in patients with cervical myelopathy. Copyright © 2017 The Japanese

  10. Depressive Symptoms and Risk of Postoperative Delirium.

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    Smith, Patrick J; Attix, Deborah K; Weldon, B Craig; Monk, Terri G

    2016-03-01

    Previous studies have shown that elevated depressive symptoms are associated with increased risk of postoperative delirium. However, to our knowledge no previous studies have examined whether different components of depression are differentially predictive of postoperative delirium. One thousand twenty patients were screened for postoperative delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method and through retrospective chart review. Patients underwent cognitive, psychosocial, and medical assessments preoperatively. Depression was assessed using the Geriatric Depression Scale-Short Form. Thirty-eight patients developed delirium (3.7%). Using a factor structure previously validated among geriatric medical patients, the authors examined three components of depression as predictors of postoperative delirium: negative affect, cognitive distress, and behavioral inactivity. In multivariate analyses controlling for age, education, comorbidities, and cognitive function, the authors found that greater behavioral inactivity was associated with increased risk of delirium (OR: 1.95 [1.11, 3.42]), whereas negative affect (OR: 0.65 [0.31, 1.36]) and cognitive distress (OR: 0.95 [0.63, 1.43]) were not. Different components of depression are differentially predictive of postoperative delirium among adults undergoing noncardiac surgery. Copyright © 2016 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Predictive Power of the NSQIP Risk Calculator for Early Post-Operative Outcomes After Whipple: Experience from a Regional Center in Northern Ontario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Henry Y; Kohtakangas, Erica L; Asai, Kengo; Shum, Jeffrey B

    2017-05-02

    NSQIP Risk Calculator was developed to allow surgeons to inform their patients about their individual risks for surgery. Its ability to predict complication rates and length of stay (LOS) has made it an appealing tool for both patients and surgeons. However, the NSQIP Risk Calculator has been criticized for its generality and lack of detail towards surgical subspecialties, including the hepatopancreaticobiliary (HPB) surgery. We wish to determine whether the NSQIP Risk Calculator is predictive of post-operative complications and LOS with respect to Whipple's resections for our patient population. As well, we wish to identify strategies to optimize early surgical outcomes in patients with pancreatic cancer. We conducted a retrospective review of patients who underwent elective Whipple's procedure for benign or malignant pancreatic head lesions at Health Sciences North (Sudbury, Ontario), a tertiary care center, from February 2014 to August 2016. Comparisons of LOS and post-operative complications between NSQIP-predicted and actual ones were carried out. NSQIP-predicted complications rates were obtained using the NSQIP Risk Calculator through pre-defined preoperative risk factors. Clinical outcomes examined, at 30 days post-operation, included pneumonia, cardiac events, surgical site infection (SSI), urinary tract infection (UTI), venous thromboembolism (VTE), renal failure, readmission, and reoperation for procedural complications. As well, mortality, disposition to nursing or rehabilitation facilities, and LOS were assessed. A total of 40 patients underwent Whipple's procedure at our center from February 2014 to August 2016. The average age was 68 (50-85), and there were 22 males and 18 females. The majority of patients had independent baseline functional status (39/40) with minimal pre-operative comorbidities. The overall post-operative morbidity was 47.5% (19/40). The rate of serious complication was 17.5% with four Clavien grade II, two grade III, and one grade

  12. A Novel Stress-Diathesis Model to Predict Risk of Post-operative Delirium: Implications for Intra-operative Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renée El-Gabalawy

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Risk assessment for post-operative delirium (POD is poorly developed. Improved metrics could greatly facilitate peri-operative care as costs associated with POD are staggering. In this preliminary study, we develop a novel stress-diathesis model based on comprehensive pre-operative psychiatric and neuropsychological testing, a blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD magnetic resonance imaging (MRI carbon dioxide (CO2 stress test, and high fidelity measures of intra-operative parameters that may interact facilitating POD.Methods: The study was approved by the ethics board at the University of Manitoba and registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02126215. Twelve patients were studied. Pre-operative psychiatric symptom measures and neuropsychological testing preceded MRI featuring a BOLD MRI CO2 stress test whereby BOLD scans were conducted while exposing participants to a rigorously controlled CO2 stimulus. During surgery the patient had hemodynamics and end-tidal gases downloaded at 0.5 hz. Post-operatively, the presence of POD and POD severity was comprehensively assessed using the Confusion Assessment Measure –Severity (CAM-S scoring instrument on days 0 (surgery through post-operative day 5, and patients were followed up at least 1 month post-operatively.Results: Six of 12 patients had no evidence of POD (non-POD. Three patients had POD and 3 had clinically significant confusional states (referred as subthreshold POD; ST-POD (score ≥ 5/19 on the CAM-S. Average severity for delirium was 1.3 in the non-POD group, 3.2 in ST-POD, and 6.1 in POD (F-statistic = 15.4, p < 0.001. Depressive symptoms, and cognitive measures of semantic fluency and executive functioning/processing speed were significantly associated with POD. Second level analysis revealed an increased inverse BOLD responsiveness to CO2 pre-operatively in ST-POD and marked increase in the POD groups when compared to the non-POD group. An association was also noted for

  13. Risk Factors and Predictive Model Development of Thirty-Day Post-Operative Surgical Site Infection in the Veterans Administration Surgical Population.

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    Li, Xinli; Nylander, William; Smith, Tracy; Han, Soonhee; Gunnar, William

    2018-04-01

    Surgical site infection (SSI) complicates approximately 2% of surgeries in the Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals. Surgical site infections are responsible for increased morbidity, length of hospital stay, cost, and mortality. Surgical site infection can be minimized by modifying risk factors. In this study, we identified risk factors and developed accurate predictive surgical specialty-specific SSI risk prediction models for the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) surgery population. In a retrospective observation study, surgical patients who underwent surgery from October 2013 to September 2016 from 136 VA hospitals were included. The Veteran Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) database was used for the pre-operative demographic and clinical characteristics, intra-operative characteristics, and 30-day post-operative outcomes. The study population represents 11 surgical specialties: neurosurgery, urology, podiatry, otolaryngology, general, orthopedic, plastic, thoracic, vascular, cardiac coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), and cardiac valve/other surgery. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed for the 30-day post-operative SSIs. Among 354,528 surgical procedures, 6,538 (1.8%) had SSIs within 30 days. Surgical site infection rates varied among surgical specialty (0.7%-3.0%). Surgical site infection rates were higher in emergency procedures, procedures with long operative duration, greater complexity, and higher relative value units. Other factors associated with increased SSI risk were high level of American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification (level 4 and 5), dyspnea, open wound/infection, wound classification, ascites, bleeding disorder, chemotherapy, smoking, history of severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), radiotherapy, steroid use for chronic conditions, and weight loss. Each surgical specialty had a distinct combination of risk factors. Accurate SSI risk-predictive surgery specialty

  14. A proposal for a comprehensive risk scoring system for predicting postoperative complications in octogenarian patients with medically operable lung cancer: JACS1303.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saji, Hisashi; Ueno, Takahiko; Nakamura, Hiroshige; Okumura, Norihito; Tsuchida, Masanori; Sonobe, Makoto; Miyazaki, Takuro; Aokage, Keiju; Nakao, Masayuki; Haruki, Tomohiro; Ito, Hiroyuki; Kataoka, Kazuhiko; Okabe, Kazunori; Tomizawa, Kenji; Yoshimoto, Kentaro; Horio, Hirotoshi; Sugio, Kenji; Ode, Yasuhisa; Takao, Motoshi; Okada, Morihito; Chida, Masayuki

    2018-04-01

    Although some retrospective studies have reported clinicopathological scoring systems for predicting postoperative complications and survival outcomes for elderly lung cancer patients, optimized scoring systems remain controversial. The Japanese Association for Chest Surgery (JACS) conducted a nationwide multicentre prospective cohort and enrolled a total of 1019 octogenarians with medically operable lung cancer. Details of the clinical factors, comorbidities and comprehensive geriatric assessment were recorded for 895 patients to develop a comprehensive risk scoring (RS) system capable of predicting severe complications. Operative (30 days) and hospital mortality rates were 1.0% and 1.6%, respectively. Complications were observed in 308 (34%) patients, of whom 81 (8.4%) had Grade 3-4 severe complications. Pneumonia was the most common severe complication, observed in 27 (3.0%) patients. Five predictive factors, gender, comprehensive geriatric assessment75: memory and Simplified Comorbidity Score (SCS): diabetes mellitus, albumin and percentage vital capacity, were identified as independent predictive factors for severe postoperative complications (odds ratio = 2.73, 1.86, 1.54, 1.66 and 1.61, respectively) through univariate and multivariate analyses. A 5-fold cross-validation was performed as an internal validation to reconfirm these 5 predictive factors (average area under the curve 0.70). We developed a simplified RS system as follows: RS = 3 (gender: male) + 2 (comprehensive geriatric assessment 75: memory: yes) + 2 (albumin: <3.8 ng/ml) + 1 (percentage vital capacity: ≤90) + 1 (SCS: diabetes mellitus: yes). The current series shows that octogenarians can be successfully treated for lung cancer with surgical resection with an acceptable rate of severe complications and mortality. We propose a simplified RS system to predict severe complications in octogenarian patients with medically operative lung cancer. JACS1303 (UMIN000016756).

  15. The Postoperative Complications Prediction in Mulago Hospital ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... management in surgery. Knowing which patient to operate and those at high risk of developing complications contributes significantly to the quality of surgical care and cost reduction. The postoperative complications of patients who underwent Laparotomy in Mulago Hospital were studied using POSSUM scoring system.

  16. Predictive Value of Whole Blood and Plasma Coagulation Tests for Intra- and Postoperative Bleeding Risk: A Systematic Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Julie Brogaard; Hvas, Anne-Mette

    2017-01-01

    review of the existing literature assessing the ability of whole blood coagulation (thromboelastography [TEG]/thromboelastometry [ROTEM]/Sonoclot), platelet function tests, and standard plasma-based coagulation tests to predict bleeding in the perioperative setting. We searched PubMed and Embase...... value of testing in patients receiving antithrombotic medication. In general, studies reported low positive predictive values for perioperative testing, whereas negative predictive values were high. The studies yielded moderate areas under receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curve (for the majority...... recommend that both whole blood and plasma-based coagulation tests are primarily used in case of bleeding and not for screening in unselected patients prior to surgery....

  17. Efficacy of adjuvant therapy with 3.7 GBq radioactive iodine in intermediate-risk patients with 'higher risk features' and predictive value of postoperative nonstimulated thyroglobulin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosario, Pedro W; Mourão, Gabriela F; Calsolari, Maria Regina

    2016-11-01

    This study evaluated the efficacy of adjuvant therapy with 3.7 GBq radioactive iodine (RAI) in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) of intermediate risk with higher risk features and determined the predictive value of postoperative nonstimulated thyroglobulin (Tg). This was a prospective study including 85 patients with PTC of intermediate risk and higher risk features: tumor greater than 1 cm and aggressive histological subtype or vascular invasion; and/or more than three positive lymph node (LN) or LN greater than 1.5 cm or showing macroscopic extracapsular extension; and/or a combination of tumor greater than 4 cm, microscopic extrathyroidal extension, aggressive histology, and LN metastases (cN1). After thyroidectomy, all patients had nonstimulated Tg of at least 0.3 ng/ml and ultrasonography showed no anomalies. When evaluated 12 months after RAI therapy, an excellent response to initial therapy was achieved in 61 patients (71.7%). Structural disease was detected in five patients (5.9%). During follow-up, 6/80 patients (7.5%) without structural disease 1 year after RAI developed relapse. In the last assessment, 80 patients (94.1%) had nonstimulated Tg less than 1 ng/ml and no evidence of structural disease. There was no case of death because of the tumor. Postoperative nonstimulated Tg was a predictive factor of the main outcome (structural disease 1 year after RAI or recurrence) and the best cut-off was 1.8 ng/ml (sensitivity: 72.7%, specificity: 83.4%, negative predictive value: 95.4%). In patients with PTC of intermediate risk with higher risk features treated with 3.7 GBq RAI, postoperative nonstimulated Tg up to 1.8 ng/ml was a predictor of low risk of structural disease 1 year after therapy or recurrence.

  18. Predicting postoperative haemoglobin changes after burn surgery

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Burn surgery is associated with significant peri-operative haemoglobin. (Hb) changes. ... operative factors predictive of an Hb <7 g/dL on the first day after surgery, which were ..... clinical judgement, taking into consideration the risk associated.

  19. Ambulatory anesthesia and postoperative nausea and vomiting: predicting the probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hegarty AT

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Aoife T Hegarty,1 Muiris A Buckley,1 Conan L McCaul1–3 1Department of Anaesthesia, The Rotunda Hospital, 2Mater Misericordiae University Hospital, 3School of Medicine and Medical Science, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland Abstract: Nausea and vomiting are distinctly unpleasant symptoms that may occur after surgery and anesthesia, and high priority is given to their prevention by patients. Research in this area is plentiful and has focused on event prediction and pharmacological prophylaxis but despite this, postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV typically occurs in 20%–30% of patients in contemporary practice. Prediction of postoperative and postdischarge nausea and vomiting is particularly important in the ambulatory surgical population as these symptoms may occur following discharge from hospital and continue for up to one week when access to antiemetic therapies is limited. Many of the existing predictive scoring systems are based on data from inpatient populations and limited to the first 24 hours after surgery. Scoring systems based on data from ambulatory surgical populations to predict PONV are only moderately good. The best-performing systems in ambulatory patients are those of Sinclair and Sarin with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78 and 0.74, respectively, but are limited by the short duration of follow-up and a greater emphasis on nausea than vomiting. Given that the ability to predict both PONV and postdischarge nausea and vomiting is clearly limited, emphasis has been placed on prophylactic strategies that incorporate antiemetic medication, intravenous hydration, and nonnarcotic analgesia. PONV has been reduced to <10% in institutions using multimodal approaches. Scoring systems may facilitate “risk tailoring” in which patient risk profile is used as a stratification method for pharmacointervention. Keywords: postoperative nausea and vomiting, prediction, antiemetics, anesthesia

  20. Neutrophil Lymphocyte Ratio Predicts Postoperative Pain after ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-12-05

    Dec 5, 2017 ... systemic diseases (hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus),. Original Article. INTRODUCTION. Postoperative ... vertigo, etc.) have been shown.[3-15]. In this study, we aimed to investigate possible relationship between preoperative NLR and postoperative pain (which was evaluated by analgesic demand at.

  1. Predicting postoperative haemoglobin changes after burn surgery ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background. Burn surgery is associated with significant blood loss and fluid shifts that cause rapid haemoglobin (Hb) changes during and after surgery. Understanding the relationship between intraoperative and postoperative (day 1) Hb changes may assist in avoiding postoperative anaemia and unnecessary ...

  2. Neutrophil Lymphocyte Ratio Predicts Postoperative Pain after ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background and Aim: Postoperative pain is well known and usually disturbing complication of surgery. Inflammation plays an important role in the development and progression of postoperative pain. We aimed to investigate possible relationship between preoperatively measured neutrophil‑lymphocyte ratio (NLR) – as an ...

  3. Predicting postoperative pain by preoperative pressure pain assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Yung-Wei; Somma, Jacques; Hung, Yu-Chun; Tsai, Pei-Shan; Yang, Chen-Hsien; Chen, Chien-Chuan

    2005-09-01

    The goal of this study was to evaluate whether preoperative pressure pain sensitivity testing is predictive of postoperative surgical pain. Female subjects undergoing lower abdominal gynecologic surgery were studied. A pressure algometer was used preoperatively to determine the pressure pain threshold and tolerance. A visual analog scale (VAS) was used to assess postoperative pain. A State-Trait Anxiety Inventory was used to assess patients' anxiety. Subjects received intravenous patient-controlled analgesia for postoperative pain control. The preoperative pain threshold and tolerance were compared with the postoperative VAS pain score and morphine consumption. Forty women were enrolled. Their preoperative pressure pain threshold and tolerance were 141 +/- 65 kPa and 223 +/- 62 kPa, respectively. The VAS pain score in the postanesthesia care unit and at 24 h postoperatively were 81 +/- 24 and 31 +/- 10, respectively. Highly anxious patients had higher VAS pain scores in the postanesthesia care unit (P pain tolerance was significantly correlated with the VAS at 24 h postoperatively (P pain tolerance after fentanyl administration (mean, 272 +/- 68 kPa) correlated significantly with morphine consumption in the first 24 h postoperatively (P pain tolerance is significantly correlated with the level of postoperative pain. Pain tolerance assessment after fentanyl was administered and fentanyl sensitivity predicted the dose of analgesics used in the first 24 h after surgery. The algometer is thus a simple, useful tool for predicting postoperative pain and analgesic consumption.

  4. Risk Factors in Development of Postoperative Empyema

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serdar Ozkan

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Aim: Many etiological factors play a role in the occurrence of postoperative empyema. We aimed to define the effects of these factors on the development of empyema. Material and Method: Two hundred and eighty-eight cases from our clinic who underwent tube thoracostomy and/or were operated due to any cause out of the primary empyema  between August 2009 and May 2010 were prospectively studied in terms of empyema development. Data comprised gender, age, chemoradiotherapy, surgical procedure, intraoperative thoracic lavage with povidone-iodine, emergency surgery status, sharing the same room with other cases with empyema, primary disease, additional comorbidity, operation duration, drain number, complication, number of patients in the room, and drain discontinuation and hospitalization duration. Blood leukocyte-neutrophil count was ordered in all cases at 3-day intervals, and fluid culture specimens were simultaneously collected from cases with drains. Drainage fluid culture specimens were evaluated with “Automated Identification and Antibiotic Susceptibility Testing” using standard procedures. Empyema cases who developed clinical manifestation and/or with bacterial growth in culture specimens were studied in terms of risk factors. The findings were analyzed using SPSS (version 16. Results: The results showed that gender, age, chemoradiotherapy, surgical procedure, intraoperative thoracic lavage with povidone-iodine, emergency surgery status, and sharing a same room with other empyema cases were not significantly correlated with the risk of empyema development. Contribution of the primary disease (p<0.05, additional comorbidity (p<0.05, operation duration (p<0.05, drain number (p<0.05, complication (p<0.05, number of people in the room (p<0.05, drain discontinuation time (p<0.05 and hospitalization duration (p<0.05 were found to be significant in the development of postoperative empyema. Discussion: Postoperative development of empyema is one

  5. Prediction of postoperative pain after mandibular third molar surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rudin, Asa; Eriksson, Lars; Liedholm, Rolf

    2010-01-01

    To evaluate the predictive potential of preoperative psychological and psychophysiological variables in estimating severity of postoperative pain following mandibular third molar surgery (MTMS). Methods: Following ethical committee approval and informed consent, 40 consecutive patients scheduled...

  6. Risk Evaluation of Postoperative Delirium Using Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment in Elderly Patients with Esophageal Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Masaaki; Yamasaki, Makoto; Sugimoto, Ken; Maekawa, Yoshihiro; Miyazaki, Yasuhiro; Makino, Tomoki; Takahashi, Tsuyoshi; Kurokawa, Yukinori; Nakajima, Kiyokazu; Takiguchi, Shuji; Rakugi, Hiromi; Mori, Masaki; Doki, Yuichiro

    2016-11-01

    The number of geriatric patients with esophageal cancer is increasing in step with the aging of the population. Geriatric patients have a higher risk of postoperative complications, including delirium that can cause a fall or impact survival. Therefore, it is very important that we evaluate risks of postoperative complications before surgery. The aim of this study was to predict postoperative delirium in elderly patients. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 91 patients aged 75 years and over who underwent esophagectomy between January 2006 and December 2014. We investigated the association between postoperative delirium and clinicopathological factors, including comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA). Postoperative delirium developed in 24 (26 %) patients. Postoperative delirium was significantly associated with low mini-mental state examination (MMSE) and high Geriatric Depression Scale 15 (GDS15), which are components of CGA, and psychiatric disorder (P patients undergoing esophagectomy for esophageal cancer. Intervention by a multidisciplinary team using CGA might help prevent postoperative delirium.

  7. Post-operative Transient Hypoparathyroidism: Incidence and Risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: There is limited data on the incidence and risk factors for developing postoperative hypoparathyroidism (POHP) in the South African setting. Objectives: This study aims to calculate the incidence of postoperative hypoparathyroidism in a South African tertiary setting, and to compare local risk factors for POHP to ...

  8. Survival prediction model for postoperative hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhihui; He, Shasha; Fan, Xiaotang; He, Fangping; Sang, Wei; Bao, Yongxing; Ren, Weixin; Zhao, Jinming; Ji, Xuewen; Wen, Hao

    2017-09-01

    This study is to establish a predictive index (PI) model of 5-year survival rate for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after radical resection and to evaluate its prediction sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy.Patients underwent HCC surgical resection were enrolled and randomly divided into prediction model group (101 patients) and model evaluation group (100 patients). Cox regression model was used for univariate and multivariate survival analysis. A PI model was established based on multivariate analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn accordingly. The area under ROC (AUROC) and PI cutoff value was identified.Multiple Cox regression analysis of prediction model group showed that neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, histological grade, microvascular invasion, positive resection margin, number of tumor, and postoperative transcatheter arterial chemoembolization treatment were the independent predictors for the 5-year survival rate for HCC patients. The model was PI = 0.377 × NLR + 0.554 × HG + 0.927 × PRM + 0.778 × MVI + 0.740 × NT - 0.831 × transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE). In the prediction model group, AUROC was 0.832 and the PI cutoff value was 3.38. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 78.0%, 80%, and 79.2%, respectively. In model evaluation group, AUROC was 0.822, and the PI cutoff value was well corresponded to the prediction model group with sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 85.0%, 83.3%, and 84.0%, respectively.The PI model can quantify the mortality risk of hepatitis B related HCC with high sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy.

  9. Prediction of Length of Postoperative Ventilation in CDH Survivors ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Vol. 6, No 3, July 2010, PP 131-135. Original Article. Prediction of Length of Postoperative Ventilation in CDH Survivors; ... reduced with no increase in the mean airway pressure. (MAWP) ... included X-ray assessment of contra-lateral lung size.

  10. Recurrence of Hallux Valgus Can Be Predicted from Immediate Postoperative Non-Weight-Bearing Radiographs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Chul Hyun; Lee, Woo-Chun

    2017-07-19

    The aims of this study were to identify risk factors for the recurrence of hallux valgus deformity and to clarify whether recurrence after surgery to treat hallux valgus can be predicted using radiographic parameters assessed on immediate postoperative non-weight-bearing radiographs. A proximal chevron osteotomy combined with a distal soft-tissue procedure was performed by a single surgeon to treat moderate to severe hallux valgus deformity in 93 patients (117 feet). The feet were grouped according to nonrecurrence or recurrence. Changes in the hallux valgus angle, the intermetatarsal angle, and sesamoid position over time were analyzed by comparing values measured during each postoperative period. The relative risks of recurrence as indicated by preoperative and postoperative radiographic parameters were determined. Twenty (17.1%) of the 117 feet showed hallux valgus recurrence at the time of the last follow-up. The hallux valgus angle and the intermetatarsal angle stabilized at 6 months after surgery in the nonrecurrence group. An immediate postoperative hallux valgus angle of ≥8°, an immediate postoperative sesamoid position of grade 4 or greater, a preoperative metatarsus adductus angle of ≥23°, and a preoperative hallux valgus angle of ≥40° were significantly associated with recurrence. Recurrence of hallux valgus after a proximal chevron osteotomy can be reliably predicted from immediate postoperative non-weight-bearing radiographs. Therapeutic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

  11. Management of hepatocellular carcinoma: Predictive value of immunohistochemical markers for postoperative survival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Zhao-Shan; Niu, Xiao-Jun; Wang, Mei

    2015-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for over 90% of all primary liver cancers. With an ever increasing incidence trend year by year, it has become the third most common cause of death from cancer worldwide. Hepatic resection is generally considered to be one of the most effective therapies for HCC patients, however, there is a high risk of recurrence in postoperative HCC. In clinical practice, there exists an urgent need for valid prognostic markers to identify patients with prognosis, hence the importance of studies on prognostic markers in improving the prediction of HCC prognosis. This review focuses on the most promising immunohistochemical prognostic markers in predicting the postoperative survival of HCC patients. PMID:25624992

  12. Risk factors for postoperative complications in robotic general surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fantola, Giovanni; Brunaud, Laurent; Nguyen-Thi, Phi-Linh; Germain, Adeline; Ayav, Ahmet; Bresler, Laurent

    2017-03-01

    The feasibility and safety of robotically assisted procedures in general surgery have been reported from various groups worldwide. Because postoperative complications may lead to longer hospital stays and higher costs overall, analysis of risk factors for postoperative surgical complications in this subset of patients is clinically relevant. The goal of this study was to identify risk factors for postoperative morbidity after robotic surgical procedures in general surgery. We performed an observational monocentric retrospective study. All consecutive robotic surgical procedures from November 2001 to December 2013 were included. One thousand consecutive general surgery patients met the inclusion criteria. The mean overall postoperative morbidity and major postoperative morbidity (Clavien >III) rates were 20.4 and 6 %, respectively. This included a conversion rate of 4.4 %, reoperation rate of 4.5 %, and mortality rate of 0.2 %. Multivariate analysis showed that ASA score >3 [OR 1.7; 95 % CI (1.2-2.4)], hematocrit value surgery [OR 1.5; 95 % CI (1-2)], advanced dissection [OR 5.8; 95 % CI (3.1-10.6)], and multiquadrant surgery [OR 2.5; 95 % CI (1.7-3.8)] remained independent risk factors for overall postoperative morbidity. It also showed that advanced dissection [OR 4.4; 95 % CI (1.9-9.6)] and multiquadrant surgery [OR 4.4; 95 % CI (2.3-8.5)] remained independent risk factors for major postoperative morbidity (Clavien >III). This study identifies independent risk factors for postoperative overall and major morbidity in robotic general surgery. Because these factors independently impacted postoperative complications, we believe they could be taken into account in future studies comparing conventional versus robot-assisted laparoscopic procedures in general surgery.

  13. Radiographic sarcopenia predicts postoperative infectious complications in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takagi, Kosei; Yoshida, Ryuichi; Yagi, Takahito; Umeda, Yuzo; Nobuoka, Daisuke; Kuise, Takashi; Fujiwara, Toshiyoshi

    2017-05-26

    Recently, skeletal muscle depletion (sarcopenia) has been reported to influence postoperative outcomes after certain procedures. This study investigated the impact of sarcopenia on postoperative outcomes following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). We performed a retrospective study of consecutive patients (n = 219) who underwent PD at our institution between January 2007 and May 2013. Sarcopenia was evaluated using preoperative computed tomography. We evaluated postoperative outcomes and the influence of sarcopenia on short-term outcomes, especially infectious complications. Subsequently, multivariate analysis was used to assess the impact of prognostic factors (including sarcopenia) on postoperative infections. The mortality, major complication, and infectious complication rates for all patients were 1.4%, 16.4%, and 47.0%, respectively. Fifty-five patients met the criteria for sarcopenia. Sarcopenia was significantly associated with a higher incidence of in-hospital mortality (P = 0.004) and infectious complications (P sarcopenia (odds ratio = 3.43; P Sarcopenia is an independent preoperative predictor of infectious complications after PD. Clinical assessment combined with sarcopenia may be helpful for understanding the risk of postoperative outcomes and determining perioperative management strategies.

  14. Prediction of Late Postoperative Hemorrhage after Whipple Procedure Using Computed Tomography Performed During Early Postoperative Period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Ga Jin; Kim, Suk; Lee, Nam Kyung; Kim, Chang Won; Seo, Hyeong Il; Kim, Hyun Sung; Kim, Tae Un

    2018-01-01

    Postpancreatectomy hemorrhage (PPH) is an uncommon but serious complication of Whipple surgery. To evaluate the radiologic features associated with late PPH at the first postoperative follow up CT, before bleeding. To evaluate the radiological features associated with late PPH at the first follow-up CT, two radiologists retrospectively reviewed the initial postoperative follow-up CT images of 151 patients, who had undergone Whipple surgery. Twenty patients showed PPH due to vascular problem or anastomotic ulcer. The research compared CT and clinical findings of 20 patients with late PPH and 131 patients without late PPH, including presence of suggestive feature of pancreatic fistula (presence of air at fluid along pancreaticojejunostomy [PJ]), abscess (fluid collection with an enhancing rim or gas), fluid along hepaticojejunostomy or PJ, the density of ascites, and the size of visible gastroduodenal artery (GDA) stump. CT findings including pancreatic fistula, abscess, and large GDA stump were associated with PPH on univariate analysis ( p ≤ 0.009). On multivariate analysis, radiological features suggestive of a pancreatic fistula, abscess, and a GDA stump > 4.45 mm were associated with PPH ( p ≤ 0.031). Early postoperative CT findings including GDA stump size larger than 4.45 mm, fluid collection with an enhancing rim or gas, and air at fluid along PJ, could predict late PPH.

  15. Postoperative Urinary Retention and Urinary Tract Infections Predict Midurethral Sling Mesh Complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Punjani, Nahid; Winick-Ng, Jennifer; Welk, Blayne

    2017-01-01

    To determine if postoperative urinary retention and urinary tract infections (UTIs) were predictors of future mesh complications requiring surgical intervention after midurethral sling (MUS). Administrative data in Ontario, Canada, between 2002 and 2013 were used to identify all women who underwent a mesh-based MUS. The primary outcome was revision of the transvaginal mesh sling (including mesh removal/erosion/fistula, or urethrolysis). Two potential risk factors were analyzed: postoperative retention (within 30 days of procedure) and number of postoperative emergency room visits or hospital admissions for UTI symptoms. A total of 59,556 women had a MUS, of which 1598 (2.7%) required revision surgery. Of the 2025 women who presented to the emergency room or were admitted to hospital for postoperative retention, 212 (10.5%) required operative mesh revision. Of the 11,747 patients who had at least one postoperative UTI, 366 (3.1%) patients required operative mesh revision. In adjusted analysis, postoperative retention was significantly predictive of future reoperation (hazard ratio [HR] 3.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.97-4.02), and this difference persisted when urethrolysis was excluded as a reason for sling revision (HR 3.08, 95% CI 2.62-3.63). Similarly, in adjusted analysis, each additional postoperative hospital visit for UTI symptoms increased the risk for surgical intervention for mesh complications (HR 1.74, 95% CI 1.61-1.87). Postoperative urinary retention and hospital presentation for UTI symptoms are associated with an increased risk of reoperation for MUS complications. These patients should be followed and investigated for mesh complications when appropriate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Postoperative mortality after inpatient surgery: Incidence and risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karamarie Fecho

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Karamarie Fecho1, Anne T Lunney1, Philip G Boysen1, Peter Rock2, Edward A Norfleet11Department of Anesthesiology, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA; 2Department of Anesthesiology, University of Maryland, Baltimore, MD, USAPurpose: This study determined the incidence of and identified risk factors for 48 hour (h and 30 day (d postoperative mortality after inpatient operations.Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using Anesthesiology’s Quality Indicator database as the main data source. The database was queried for data related to the surgical procedure, anesthetic care, perioperative adverse events, and birth/death/operation dates. The 48 h and 30 d cumulative incidence of postoperative mortality was calculated and data were analyzed using Chi-square or Fisher’s exact test and generalized estimating equations.Results: The 48 h and 30 d incidence of postoperative mortality was 0.57% and 2.1%, respectively. Higher American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status scores, extremes of age, emergencies, perioperative adverse events and postoperative Intensive Care Unit admission were identified as risk factors. The use of monitored anesthesia care or general anesthesia versus regional or combined anesthesia was a risk factor for 30 d postoperative mortality only. Time under anesthesia care, perioperative hypothermia, trauma, deliberate hypotension and invasive monitoring via arterial, pulmonary artery or cardiovascular catheters were not identified as risk factors.Conclusions: Our findings can be used to track postoperative mortality rates and to test preventative interventions at our institution and elsewhere.Keywords: postoperative mortality, risk factors, operations, anesthesia, inpatient surgery

  17. Prediction of postoperative pain after mandibular third molar surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rudin, Asa; Eriksson, Lars; Liedholm, Rolf

    2010-01-01

    . Standardized surgery was performed during local anesthesia. Postoperative pain management was with rescue paracetamol and ibuprofen. The patients were instructed to record each day their pain at rest and during dynamic conditions, and their requirement of analgesics for 14 days following surgery.......To evaluate the predictive potential of preoperative psychological and psychophysiological variables in estimating severity of postoperative pain following mandibular third molar surgery (MTMS). Methods: Following ethical committee approval and informed consent, 40 consecutive patients scheduled...... for MTMS were included. Preoperative psychometric indicators of anxiety, depression, and vulnerability were evaluated by patient questionnaires. Thermal thresholds and heat pain perception (1 second phasic stimuli: 44 degrees C to 48 degrees C) were evaluated with quantitative sensory testing techniques...

  18. Prevalence and risk factors for postoperative delirium in total joint arthroplasty patients: A prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wenliang; Ke, Xiurong; Wang, Xiaoqing; Sun, Xiaoliang; Wang, Juncheng; Yang, Guojing; Xia, Haijie; Zhang, Lei

    2017-05-01

    The aim of this prospective study was to investigate the incidence and clinical features of delirium after total joint arthroplasty, and to establish the potential risk factors for postoperative delirium. A total of 212 consecutive patients undergoing hip or knee arthroplasty, who met the inclusion and exclusive criteria were enrolled. The general characteristics, preoperative and postoperative hematological variables were documented respectively. According to the presence of delirium, all patients were divided into the delirium group and non-delirium group. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were performed to identify the possible predictors for postoperative delirium. At a minimum of 6months of follow-up, 35 patients were observed with postoperative delirium at an estimated total incidence of 16.5%. The incidence of delirium was statistically higher in hip arthroplasty (22.8%) than that in knee arthroplasty (7.1%). The multivariate regression analysis identified older age (OR=1.590, P=0.023), a history of stroke (OR=190.23, P=0.036), preoperative PaO 2 (OR=1.277, P=0.018) and equivalent fentanyl dose (OR=1.010, P=0.012) as the predictive factors for postoperative delirium after total joint arthroplasty. The incidence of postoperative delirium after total joint arthroplasty is higher than expected. Based on our findings, we suggest that the surgeons should focus on those patients who have these risk factors and ensure the appropriate management to avoid postoperative delirium. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Reducing the Risk of Postoperative Genital Complications in Male Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dossanova, ?ssem; Lozovoy, Vasiliy; Wood, Dan; ??nekenova, ?enzhekyz; Botabayeva, ?igul; Dossanov, Bolatbek; Lozovaya, Yelena; ?marov, ?algat

    2016-01-01

    The reproductive system of adolescents is exposed to a high risk of anomalies. In spite of the successes of surgical correction, the percentage of postoperative complications remains high. Special attention should be paid to circumcision, which is regarded as a religious tradition in many countries and carried out with sanitary violations. This…

  20. Cerebrospinal fluid leakage during transsphenoidal surgery: postoperative external lumbar drainage reduces the risk for meningitis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Aken, M. O.; Feelders, R. A.; de Marie, S.; van de Berge, J. H.; Dallenga, A. H. G.; Delwel, E. J.; Poublon, R. M. L.; Romijn, J. A.; van der Lely, A. J.; Lamberts, S. W. J.; de Herder, W. W.

    2004-01-01

    Postoperative meningitis is a well known complication of transsphenoidal surgery (TSS). The objective of this study was to evaluate whether postoperative external cerobrospinal fluid (CSF) drainage in case of intraoperative CSF-leakage, reduces the risk of postoperative meningitis. We

  1. Postoperative constipation risk assessment in Turkish orthopedic patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Şendir, Merdiye; Büyükıylmaz, Funda; Aştı, Türkinaz; Gürpınar, Şengül; Yazgan, İlknur

    2012-01-01

    This descriptive, correlational study was conducted to describe constipation risk assessment and the affecting factors of constipation risk of patients who have undergone major orthopedic surgery. Data were collected using a patient information form and the Constipation Risk Assessment Scale (CRAS) on the second postoperative day. Data were analyzed using the SPSS version 11.5 for Windows. The mean age of the 83 patients studied was 53.75 ± 21.29 years. Subjects were hospitalized in the orthopedic wards for 14.39 ± 15.17 days, and their current bowel habit was 2.18 ± 1.80 stools per week. Of the sample, 63.9% were female, 69.9% of the patients had a history of previous surgery, 45.8% had hip/knee arthroplasty surgery, and 55.4% had bowel problems during the hospitalization period. Patients had a medium risk for constipation according to the CRAS subscale (gender, mobility, and pharmacological agents). Total CRAS score was 12.73 ± 4.75 (medium risk) on the second postoperative day. In addition, age, marital status, educational level, having a history of surgery, and bowel elimination problems did have a significant effect on constipation risk. On the basis of the findings from this study, nurses must learn the postoperative constipation risk of orthopedic patients to implement safe and effective interventions.

  2. Prediction of postoperative pain: a systematic review of predictive experimental pain studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Werner, Mads Utke; Mjöbo, Helena N; Nielsen, Per R

    2010-01-01

    Quantitative testing of a patient's basal pain perception before surgery has the potential to be of clinical value if it can accurately predict the magnitude of pain and requirement of analgesics after surgery. This review includes 14 studies that have investigated the correlation between...... preoperative responses to experimental pain stimuli and clinical postoperative pain and demonstrates that the preoperative pain tests may predict 4-54% of the variance in postoperative pain experience depending on the stimulation methods and the test paradigm used. The predictive strength is much higher than...

  3. Postoperative Prostate-Specific Antigen Velocity Independently Predicts for Failure of Salvage Radiotherapy After Prostatectomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, Christopher R.; Presti, Joseph C.; Brooks, James D.; Gill, Harcharan; Spiotto, Michael T.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: Identification of patients most likely to benefit from salvage radiotherapy (RT) using postoperative (postop) prostate-specific antigen (PSA) kinetics. Methods and Materials: From 1984 to 2004, 81 patients who fit the following criteria formed the study population: undetectable PSA after radical prostatectomy (RP); pathologically negative nodes; biochemical relapse defined as a persistently detectable PSA; salvage RT; and two or more postop PSAs available before salvage RT. Salvage RT included the whole pelvic nodes in 55 patients and 4 months of total androgen suppression in 56 patients. The median follow-up was >5 years. All relapses were defined as a persistently detectable PSA. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards multivariable analysis were performed for all clinical, pathological, and treatment factors predicting for biochemical relapse-free survival (bRFS). Results: There were 37 biochemical relapses observed after salvage RT. The 5-year bRFS after salvage RT for patients with postop prostate-specific antigen velocity ≤1 vs. >1 ng/ml/yr was 59% vs. 29%, p = 0.002. In multivariate analysis, only postop PSAV (p = 0.0036), pre-RT PSA level ≤1 (p = 0.037) and interval-to-relapse >10 months (p = 0.012) remained significant, whereas pelvic RT, hormone therapy, and RT dose showed a trend (p = ∼0.06). PSAV, but not prostate-specific antigen doubling time, predicted successful salvage RT, suggesting an association of zero-order kinetics with locally recurrent disease. Conclusions: Postoperative PSA velocity independently predicts for the failure of salvage RT and can be considered in addition to high-risk features when selecting patients in need of systemic therapy following biochemical failure after RP. For well-selected patients, salvage RT can achieve high cure rates

  4. Postoperative chemoradiotherapy in high risk locally advanced gastric cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Sang Hyuk; Chie, Eui Kyu; Kim, Kyu Bo; Lee, Hyuk Joon; Yang, Han Kwang; Han, Sae Won; Oh, Do Youn; Im, Seok Ah; Bang, Yung Jue; Ha, Sung W. [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul(Korea, Republic of)

    2012-12-15

    To evaluate treatment outcome of patients with high risk locally advanced gastric cancer after postoperative chemoradiotherapy. Between May 2003 and May 2012, thirteen patients who underwent postoperative chemoradiotherapy for gastric cancer with resection margin involvement or adjacent structure invasion were retrospectively analyzed. Concurrent chemotherapy was administered in 10 patients. Median dose of radiation was 50.4 Gy (range, 45 to 55.8 Gy). The median follow-up duration for surviving patients was 48 months (range, 5 to 108 months). The 5-year overall survival rate was 42% and the 5-year disease-free survival rate was 28%. Major pattern of failure was peritoneal seeding with 46%. Loco-regional recurrence was reported in only one patient. Grade 2 or higher gastrointestinal toxicity occurred in 54% of the patients. However, there was only one patient with higher than grade 3 toxicity. Despite reported suggested role of adjuvant radiotherapy with combination chemotherapy in gastric cancer, only very small portion of the patients underwent the treatment. Results from this study show that postoperative chemoradiotherapy provided excellent locoregional control with acceptable and manageable treatment related toxicity in patients with high risk locally advanced gastric cancer. Thus, postoperative chemoradiotherapy may improve treatment result in terms of locoregional control in these high risk patients. However, as these findings are based on small series, validation with larger cohort is suggested.

  5. Risk factors for postoperative complications following oral surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hideo SHIGEISHI

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available AbstractObjective The objective of this study was to clarify significant risk factors for postoperative complications in the oral cavity in patients who underwent oral surgery, excluding those with oral cancer.Material and Methods This study reviewed the records of 324 patients who underwent mildly to moderately invasive oral surgery (e.g., impacted tooth extraction, cyst excision, fixation of mandibular and maxillary fractures, osteotomy, resection of a benign tumor, sinus lifting, bone grafting, removal of a sialolith, among others under general anesthesia or intravenous sedation from 2012 to 2014 at the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Reconstructive Surgery, Hiroshima University Hospital.Results Univariate analysis showed a statistical relationship between postoperative complications (i.e., surgical site infection, anastomotic leak and diabetes (p=0.033, preoperative serum albumin level (p=0.009, and operation duration (p=0.0093. Furthermore, preoperative serum albumin level (<4.0 g/dL and operation time (≥120 minutes were found to be independent factors affecting postoperative complications in multiple logistic regression analysis results (odds ratio 3.82, p=0.0074; odds ratio 2.83, p=0.0086, respectively.Conclusion Our results indicate that a low level of albumin in serum and prolonged operation duration are important risk factors for postoperative complications occurring in the oral cavity following oral surgery.

  6. Risk Factors for Postoperative Cognitive Dysfunctions in Elderly Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Yu. Ibragimov

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to study the impact of a wide spectrum of factors on the development of postoperative delirium in elderly patients in relation to the changes in their cognitive functions depending on the type of anesthesia and period after surgery. Subjects and methods. The study covered 100 patients aged 65—90 years who had been electively operated on under general, regional, and combined anesthesia. Their cognitive status was elevated before and 1, 4, and 7 days after surgery, by using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE schedule. The diagnosis was postoperatively established on the basis of interviews, by applying the diagnostic criteria of ICD-10 and DSM-IV (American Psychiatric Association, 1994 and verified by a psychiatrist’s consultation. Results. Seventeen patients developed delirium within the first two days following surgery. Elevated plasma sodium (p<0.000001, leukocytosis (p<0.00002, and postoperative analgesia mode (p<0.02 proved to be statistically significant risk factors for delirium. Worse results of MMSE tests at all postoperative stages than those obtained prior to surgery were significant (p<0.05. Comparing the results obtained on days 1, 4, and 7 showed a significant cognitive improvement. Analysis indicated no significant differences in MMSE changes between the groups of general, regional, and combined anesthesia at all study stages. Conclusion. In elderly patients, surgery and anesthesia lead to a considerable deterioration of cognitive functions even if the development of delirium can be avoided. There is a significant correlation of the development of delirium with leukocytosis, hypernatremia, and postoperative analgesia mode. Key words: anesthesia, postoperative delirium, cognitive status, MMSE, elderly age.

  7. Postoperative infection risk after splenectomy: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barmparas, Galinos; Lamb, Alexander W; Lee, Debora; Nguyen, Brandon; Eng, Jamie; Bloom, Matthew B; Ley, Eric J

    2015-05-01

    Splenectomy is associated with a life-long risk for overwhelming infections. The risk for early post-operative infectious complications following traumatic and elective splenectomy is, however, understudied. This investigation aimed to determine if splenectomy increases the risk for post-operative infections. This was a retrospective review of prospectively collected data on patients admitted to the surgical intensive care unit (SICU) between 1/2011 and 7/2013 investigating the risk for infectious complications in patients undergoing a splenectomy compared with those undergoing any other abdominal surgery. During the 30-month study period, a total of 1884 patients were admitted to the SICU. Of those, 33 (2%) had a splenectomy and 493 (26%) had an abdominal surgery. The two groups were well balanced for age, APACHE IV score >20, and past medical history, including diabetes mellitus, cardiac history, renal failure or immunosuppression. Patients undergoing splenectomy were more likely to have sustained a traumatic injury (30% vs. 7%, p splenectomy was associated with increased risk for infectious complications (49% vs. 29%, Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) [95% CI]: 2.7 [1.3, 5.6], p = 0.01), including intra-abdominal abscess (9% vs. 3%, AOR [95% CI]: 4.3 [1.1, 16.2], p = 0.03). On a subgroup analysis, there were no differences between traumatic and elective splenectomy with regards to overall infectious complications (50% vs. 46%, p = 0.84), although, abdominal abscess developed only in those who had an elective splenectomy (0% vs. 12%, p = 0.55). Splenectomy increases the risk for post-operative infectious complications. Further studies identifying strategies to decrease the associated morbidity are necessary. Copyright © 2015 IJS Publishing Group Limited. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Risk factors for postoperative complications following oral surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shigeishi, Hideo; Ohta, Kouji; Takechi, Masaaki

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study was to clarify significant risk factors for postoperative complications in the oral cavity in patients who underwent oral surgery, excluding those with oral cancer. This study reviewed the records of 324 patients who underwent mildly to moderately invasive oral surgery (e.g., impacted tooth extraction, cyst excision, fixation of mandibular and maxillary fractures, osteotomy, resection of a benign tumor, sinus lifting, bone grafting, removal of a sialolith, among others) under general anesthesia or intravenous sedation from 2012 to 2014 at the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Reconstructive Surgery, Hiroshima University Hospital. Univariate analysis showed a statistical relationship between postoperative complications (i.e., surgical site infection, anastomotic leak) and diabetes (p=0.033), preoperative serum albumin level (p=0.009), and operation duration (p=0.0093). Furthermore, preoperative serum albumin level (oral cavity following oral surgery.

  9. Comparison of prospective risk estimates for postoperative complications: human vs computer model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasgow, Robert E; Hawn, Mary T; Hosokawa, Patrick W; Henderson, William G; Min, Sung-Joon; Richman, Joshua S; Tomeh, Majed G; Campbell, Darrell; Neumayer, Leigh A

    2014-02-01

    Surgical quality improvement tools such as NSQIP are limited in their ability to prospectively affect individual patient care by the retrospective audit and feedback nature of their design. We hypothesized that statistical models using patient preoperative characteristics could prospectively provide risk estimates of postoperative adverse events comparable to risk estimates provided by experienced surgeons, and could be useful for stratifying preoperative assessment of patient risk. This was a prospective observational cohort. Using previously developed models for 30-day postoperative mortality, overall morbidity, cardiac, thromboembolic, pulmonary, renal, and surgical site infection (SSI) complications, model and surgeon estimates of risk were compared with each other and with actual 30-day outcomes. The study cohort included 1,791 general surgery patients operated on between June 2010 and January 2012. Observed outcomes were mortality (0.2%), overall morbidity (8.2%), and pulmonary (1.3%), cardiac (0.3%), thromboembolism (0.2%), renal (0.4%), and SSI (3.8%) complications. Model and surgeon risk estimates showed significant correlation (p risk for overall morbidity to be low, the model-predicted risk and observed morbidity rates were 2.8% and 4.1%, respectively, compared with 10% and 18% in perceived high risk patients. Patients in the highest quartile of model-predicted risk accounted for 75% of observed mortality and 52% of morbidity. Across a broad range of general surgical operations, we confirmed that the model risk estimates are in fairly good agreement with risk estimates of experienced surgeons. Using these models prospectively can identify patients at high risk for morbidity and mortality, who could then be targeted for intervention to reduce postoperative complications. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  10. Predictive images of postoperative levator resection outcome using image processing software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mawatari, Yuki; Fukushima, Mikiko

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to evaluate the efficacy of processed images to predict postoperative appearance following levator resection. Analysis involved 109 eyes from 65 patients with blepharoptosis who underwent advancement of levator aponeurosis and Müller's muscle complex (levator resection). Predictive images were prepared from preoperative photographs using the image processing software (Adobe Photoshop ® ). Images of selected eyes were digitally enlarged in an appropriate manner and shown to patients prior to surgery. Approximately 1 month postoperatively, we surveyed our patients using questionnaires. Fifty-six patients (89.2%) were satisfied with their postoperative appearances, and 55 patients (84.8%) positively responded to the usefulness of processed images to predict postoperative appearance. Showing processed images that predict postoperative appearance to patients prior to blepharoptosis surgery can be useful for those patients concerned with their postoperative appearance. This approach may serve as a useful tool to simulate blepharoptosis surgery.

  11. A characterization of factors determining postoperative ileus after laparoscopic colectomy enables the generation of a novel predictive score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kronberg, Udo; Kiran, Ravi P; Soliman, Mohamed S M; Hammel, Jeff P; Galway, Ursula; Coffey, John Calvin; Fazio, Victor W

    2011-01-01

    Postoperative ileus (POI) after colorectal surgery is associated with prolonged hospital stay and increased costs. The aim of this study is to investigate pre-, intra-, and postoperative risk factors associated with the development of POI in patients undergoing laparoscopic partial colectomy. Patients operated between 2004 and 2008 were retrospectively identified from a prospectively maintained database, and clinical, metabolic, and pharmacologic data were obtained. Postoperative ileus was defined as the absence of bowel function for 5 or more days or the need for reinsertion of a nasogastric tube after starting oral diet in the absence of mechanical obstruction. Associations between likelihood of POI and study variables were assessed univariably by using χ tests, Fisher exact tests, and logistic regression models. A scoring system for prediction of POI was constructed by using a multivariable logistic regression model based on forward stepwise selection of preoperative factors. A total of 413 patients (mean age, 58 years; 53.5% women) were included, and 42 (10.2%) of them developed POI. Preoperative albumin, postoperative deep-vein thrombosis, and electrolyte levels were associated with POI. Age, previous abdominal surgery, and chronic preoperative use of narcotics were independently correlated with POI on multivariate analysis, which allowed the creation of a predictive score. Patients with a score of 2 or higher had an 18.3% risk of POI (P POI can be predicted by using a preoperative scoring system. Addressing the postoperative factors may be expected to reduce the incidence of this common complication in high-risk patients.

  12. Better consenting for thyroidectomy: who has an increased risk of postoperative hypocalcaemia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Andrew S; Prades, Eduardo; Tkachuk, Olena; Zeitoun, Hisham

    2016-12-01

    Hypocalcaemia is the most common complication following thyroidectomy. This study aimed to establish the factors associated with increased risk of hypocalcaemia on day 1 following thyroidectomy. All patients who underwent thyroidectomy under a single consultant during a 5-year period were included. A multivariate analysis was undertaken to ascertain which variables had the most effect on the risk of hypocalcaemia. A prognosis table was constructed to allow risk to be predicted for individual patients based on these factors. Included in the analysis were 210 procedures and 194 patients. Eighty-two percent of patients had no calcium derangement postoperatively. Fourteen point nine percent were categorised as early hypocalcaemia, 1 % had protracted hypocalcaemia and 2.1 % had permanent hypocalcaemia. For hemi-thyroidectomies 2.8 % had postoperative hypocalcaemia and 0.9 % had permanent hypocalcaemia. The multivariate analysis revealed total thyroidectomy (risk ratio 26.5, p < 0.0001), diabetes (risk ratio 4.8, p = 0.07) and thyrotoxicosis (risk ratio 3.1, p = 0.04) as statistically significant variables for early postoperative hypocalcaemia. Gender as an isolated factor did not reach significance but was included in the model. The p value for the model was p < 1 × 10 -12 . Total thyroidectomy increases risk of early hypocalcaemia when compared to hemithyroidectomy. Gender, diabetes and thyrotoxicosis were also been found to influence the risk. All of these factors are available pre-operatively and can therefore be used to predict a more specific risk for individual patients. It is hoped that this can lead to better informed consent, prevention and better resource allocation.

  13. Is postoperative cognitive dysfunction a risk factor for dementia?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steinmetz, J; Siersma, Volkert Dirk; Kessing, L V

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: /st>Postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) is a common complication in elderly patients after major surgery. An association between POCD and the development of dementia has been suspected. In this study, we assessed if POCD was a risk factor for the occurrence of dementia. METHODS...... surgery, using a neuropsychological test battery. The time of (first) occurrence of dementia after surgery was assessed using the National Patient Register and the Psychiatric Central Research Register. Recorded dementia diagnoses (ICD-8 and ICD-10) were: Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia......, frontotemporal dementia, or dementia without specification. The risk of dementia according to POCD was assessed in the Cox regression models. RESULTS: /st>A total of 686 patients with a median age of 67 [inter-quartile range (IQR) 61-74] yr were followed for a median of 11.1 (IQR 5.2-12.6) yr. Only 32 patients...

  14. Pressure ulcer prevention in high-risk postoperative cardiovascular patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Melissa; McKenney, Teresa; Drumm, Jennifer; Merrick, Brian; LeMaster, Tamara; VanGilder, Catherine

    2011-08-01

    Little has been published about how to prevent pressure ulcers in severely debilitated, immobile patients in intensive care units. To present a possible prevention strategy for postoperative cardiovascular surgery patients at high risk for development of pressure ulcers. Staff chose to implement air fluidized therapy beds, which provide maximal immersion and envelopment as a measure for preventing pressure ulcers in patients who (1) required vasopressors for at least 24 hours and (2) required mechanical ventilation for at least 24 hours postoperatively. Only 1 of 27 patients had a pressure ulcer develop while on the air fluidized therapy bed (February 2008 through August 2008), and that ulcer was only a stage I ulcer, compared with 40 ulcers in 25 patients before the intervention. Patients spent a mean of 7.9 days on the mattress, and the cost of bed rental was approximately $18000, which was similar to the cost of treatment of 1 pressure ulcer in stage III or IV (about $40000) and was considered cost-effective.

  15. Postoperative radiation for cervical cancer with pathologic risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hart, Kimberly; Han, Ihn; Deppe, Gunter; Malviya, Vinay; Malone, John; Christensen, Carl; Chuba, Paul; Porter, Arthur

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: To examine the efficacy of postoperative radiation therapy for early-stage cervical cancer with pathologic risk factors. Methods and Materials: We reviewed the charts of 83 patients who received postoperative radiation therapy at our facility from March 1980 to November 1993 for early stage cervix cancer with positive surgical margins, positive pelvic or periaortic lymph nodes, lymphovascular space invasion, deep invasion, or for disease discovered incidentally at simple hysterectomy. Twenty-eight patients received low dose rate (LDR) intracavitary radiation with or without external beam pelvic irradiation and 55 patients received external beam pelvic irradiation with high dose rate (HDR) intracavitary implants. Of these 83 patients, 66 were evaluable--20 LDR and 46 HDR patients. All patients received 45-50 Gy external beam irradiation and 20 Gy LDR equivalent intracavitary irradiation prescribed to 0.5 cm below the mucosa. Ninety percent of the LDR group and 92% of the HDR group completed treatment within < 56 days. Treatment-related toxicities were scored according to the GOG toxicity scale. Mean and median follow-up times were 101 months and 111 months (3-172 months) for the LDR group and 42 and 40 months (3-98 months) for the HDR group. Results: The 5-year disease-free survival was 89% for the LDR group and 72% for the HDR group. Local control was observed in 90% (18 out of 20) of the LDR patients and 89% (41 out of 46) of the HDR patients for an overall local control rate of 89.5%. Two of 20 LDR patients (10%) experienced recurrence (two pelvic with distant metastasis). Nine of 46 HDR patients (22%) had recurrence of disease (three pelvic, four distant metastasis, and two pelvic with distant metastasis). In the HDR group, 6 out of 16 (38%) with positive lymph nodes died of disease whereas, 27 out of 30 (90%) of the patients with negative lymph nodes remain free of disease. Three of 20 (15%) LDR patients and 4 out of 46 (9%) HDR patients experienced

  16. Is preoperative spirometry a predictive marker for postoperative complications after colorectal cancer surgery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tajima, Yuki; Tsuruta, Masashi; Yahagi, Masashi; Hasegawa, Hirotoshi; Okabayashi, Koji; Shigeta, Kohei; Ishida, Takashi; Kitagawa, Yuko

    2017-09-01

    Spirometry is a basic test that provides much information about pulmonary function; it is performed preoperatively in almost all patients undergoing colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery in our hospital. However, the value of spirometry as a preoperative test for CRC surgery remains unknown. The aim of this study was to determine whether spirometry is useful to predict postoperative complications (PCs) after CRC surgery. The medical records of 1236 patients who had preoperative spirometry tests and underwent CRC surgery between 2005 and 2014 were reviewed. Preoperative spirometry results, such as forced vital capacity (FVC), one-second forced expiratory volume (FEV1), %VC (FVC/predicted VC) and FEV1/FVC (%FEV1), were analyzed with regard to PCs, including pneumonia. PCs were found in 383 (30.9%) patients, including 218 (56%) with surgical site infections, 67 (17%) with bowel obstruction, 62 (16%) with leakage and 20 (5.2%) with pneumonia. Of the spirometry results, %VC was correlated with PC according to logistic regression analysis (odds ratio, OR = 0.99, 95% confidence interval, CI = 0.98-0.99; P = 0.034). Multivariate analysis after adjusting for male sex, age, laparoscopic surgery, tumor location, operation time and blood loss showed that a lower %VC tends to be a risk factor for PC (OR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.98-1.002; P = 0.159) and %VC was an independent risk factor for postoperative pneumonia in PCs (OR = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.94-0.99; P = 0.049). In CRC surgery, %VC may be a predictor of postoperative complications, especially pneumonia. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  17. Predicting the post-operative length of stay for the orthopaedic trauma patient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chona, Deepak; Lakomkin, Nikita; Bulka, Catherine; Mousavi, Idine; Kothari, Parth; Dodd, Ashley C; Shen, Michelle S; Obremskey, William T; Sethi, Manish K

    2017-05-01

    Length of stay (LOS) is a major driver of cost and quality of care. A bundled payment system makes it essential for orthopaedic surgeons to understand factors that increase a patient's LOS. Yet, minimal data regarding predictors of LOS currently exist. Using the ACS-NSQIP database, this is the first study to identify risk factors for increased LOS for orthopaedic trauma patients and create a personalized LOS calculator. All orthopaedic trauma surgery between 2006 and 2013 were identified from the ACS-NSQIP database using CPT codes. Patient demographics, pre-operative comorbidities, anatomic location of injury, and post-operative in-hospital complications were collected. To control for individual patient comorbidities, a negative binomial regression model evaluated hospital LOS after surgery. Betas (β), were determined for each pre-operative patient characteristic. We selected significant predictors of LOS (p < 0.05) using backwards stepwise elimination. 49,778 orthopaedic trauma patients were included in the analysis. Deep incisional surgical site infections and superficial surgical site infections were associated with the greatest percent change in predicted LOS (β = 1.2760 and 1.2473, respectively; p < 0.0001 for both). A post-operative LOS risk calculator was developed based on the formula: [Formula: see text]. Utilizing a large prospective cohort of orthopaedic trauma patients, we created the first personalized LOS calculator based on pre-operative comorbidities, post-operative complications and location of surgery. Future work may assess the use of this calculator and attempt to validate its utility as an accurate model. To improve the quality measures of hospitals, orthopaedists must employ such predictive tools to optimize care and better manage resources.

  18. Postoperative delirium in intensive care patients: risk factors and outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veiga, Dalila; Luis, Clara; Parente, Daniela; Fernandes, Vera; Botelho, Miguela; Santos, Patricia; Abelha, Fernando

    2012-07-01

    Postoperative delirium (POD) in Surgical Intensive Care patients is an important independent outcome determinant. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the incidence and determinants of POD. Prospective cohort study conducted during a period of 10 months in a Post-Anesthesia Care Unit (PACU) with five intensive care beds. All consecutive adult patients submitted to major surgery were enrolled. Demographic data, perioperative variables, length of stay (LOS) and the mortality at PACU, hospital and at 6-months follow-up were recorded. Postoperative delirium was evaluated using the Intensive Care Delirium Screening Checklist (ICDSC). Descriptive analyses were conducted and the Mann-Whitney test, Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test were used for comparisons. Logistic regression analysis evaluated the determinants of POD with calculation of odds ratio (OR) and its confidence interval 95% (95% CI). There were 775 adult PACU admissions and 95 patients had exclusion criteria. Of the remaining 680 patients, 128 (18.8%) developed POD. Independent determinants of POD identified were age, ASA-PS, emergency surgery and total amount of fresh frozen plasma administered during surgery. Patients with delirium had higher mortality rates, were more severely ill and stayed longer at the PACU and in the hospital. POD was an independent risk factor for hospital mortality There was a high incidence of delirium had a high incidence in intensive care surgical patients. POD was associated with worse severity of disease scores, longer LOS in hospital, and in PACU and higher mortality rates. The independent risk factors for POD were age, ASAPS, emergency surgery and the amount of plasma administered during surgery. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  19. Three-dimensional computed tomographic volumetry precisely predicts the postoperative pulmonary function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Keisuke; Saeki, Yusuke; Kitazawa, Shinsuke; Kobayashi, Naohiro; Kikuchi, Shinji; Goto, Yukinobu; Sakai, Mitsuaki; Sato, Yukio

    2017-11-01

    It is important to accurately predict the patient's postoperative pulmonary function. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of predictions of the postoperative residual pulmonary function obtained with three-dimensional computed tomographic (3D-CT) volumetry with that of predictions obtained with the conventional segment-counting method. Fifty-three patients scheduled to undergo lung cancer resection, pulmonary function tests, and computed tomography were enrolled in this study. The postoperative residual pulmonary function was predicted based on the segment-counting and 3D-CT volumetry methods. The predicted postoperative values were compared with the results of postoperative pulmonary function tests. Regarding the linear correlation coefficients between the predicted postoperative values and the measured values, those obtained using the 3D-CT volumetry method tended to be higher than those acquired using the segment-counting method. In addition, the variations between the predicted and measured values were smaller with the 3D-CT volumetry method than with the segment-counting method. These results were more obvious in COPD patients than in non-COPD patients. Our findings suggested that the 3D-CT volumetry was able to predict the residual pulmonary function more accurately than the segment-counting method, especially in patients with COPD. This method might lead to the selection of appropriate candidates for surgery among patients with a marginal pulmonary function.

  20. Remnant pancreatic parenchymal volume predicts postoperative pancreatic exocrine insufficiency after pancreatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okano, Keisuke; Murakami, Yoshiaki; Nakagawa, Naoya; Uemura, Kenichiro; Sudo, Takeshi; Hashimoto, Yasushi; Kondo, Naru; Takahashi, Shinya; Sueda, Taijiro

    2016-03-01

    Pancreatectomy, including pancreatoduodenectomy and distal pancreatectomy, often causes postoperative pancreatic exocrine insufficiency (PEI). Our aim was to clarify a relationship between remnant pancreatic volume and postoperative PEI. A total of 227 patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy or distal pancreatectomy were enrolled in this study. All patients underwent a (13)C-labeled mixed triglyceride breath test to assess pancreatic exocrine function and abdominal dynamic computed tomography for assessing remnant pancreatic volume after pancreatectomy at a median of 7 months postoperatively. The percent (13)CO2 cumulative dose at 7 hours (% dose (13)C cum 7 h) pancreatectomy were performed in 174 (76.7%) and 53 (23.3%) patients, respectively. Of the 227 patients, 128 (56.3%) developed postoperative PEI. Postoperative % dose (13)C cum 7 h was strongly correlated with remnant pancreatic volume (r = .509, P pancreatectomy (P pancreatectomy. Remnant pancreatic volume may predict postoperative PEI in patients who undergo pancreatectomy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Prediction of postoperative respiratory function of lung cancer patients using 99mTc-MAA SPECT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kokubo, Mitsuharu; Sakai, Satoshi; Miyata, Tomoyuki

    1991-01-01

    In this study, we evaluated the correlation between the predicted postoperative respiratory function using 99m Tc-MAA SPECT with chest CT and the postoperative respiratory function. 99m Tc-MAA SPECT were performed in 10 patients with lung cancer who underwent lobectomy. We measured the fractional loss in the pulmonary flow of the lobe to be resected using 99m Tc-MAA SPECT with chest CT. The value of predicted postoperative respiratory function was measured as follows: the value of predicted postoperative respiratory function=the value of preoperative respiratory function x (1-the fractional loss in the pulmonary flow of the lobe to be resected). Postoperative forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV 1.0 ) and % vital capacity (%VC) were predicted in this study, and were compared to the respiratory function at three months and six months after operation. The predicted postoperative respiratory function was highly correlated with the actually observed postoperative respiratory function. (author)

  2. Risk Factors for Postoperative Fibrinogen Deficiency after Surgical Removal of Intracranial Tumors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naili Wei

    Full Text Available Higher levels of fibrinogen, a critical element in hemostasis, are associated with increased postoperative survival rates, especially for patients with massive operative blood loss. Fibrinogen deficiency after surgical management of intracranial tumors may result in postoperative intracranial bleeding and severely worsen patient outcomes. However, no previous studies have systematically identified factors associated with postoperative fibrinogen deficiency. In this study, we retrospectively analyzed data from patients who underwent surgical removal of intracranial tumors in Beijing Tiantan Hospital date from 1/1/2013to12/31/2013. The present study found that patients with postoperative fibrinogen deficiency experienced more operative blood loss and a higher rate of postoperative intracranial hematoma, and they were given more blood transfusions, more plasma transfusions, and were administered larger doses of hemocoagulase compared with patients without postoperative fibrinogen deficiency. Likewise, patients with postoperative fibrinogen deficiency had poorer extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSe, longer hospital stays, and greater hospital expenses than patients without postoperative fibrinogen deficiency. Further, we assessed a comprehensive set of risk factors associated with postoperative fibrinogen deficiency via multiple linear regression. We found that body mass index (BMI, the occurrence of postoperative intracranial hematoma, and administration of hemocoagulasewere positively associated with preoperative-to-postoperative plasma fibrinogen consumption; presenting with a malignant tumor was negatively associated with fibrinogen consumption. Contrary to what might be expected, intraoperative blood loss, the need for blood transfusion, and the need for plasma transfusion were not associated with plasma fibrinogen consumption. Considering our findings together, we concluded that postoperative fibrinogen deficiency is closely associated with

  3. Risk Factors and Stroke Characteristic in Patients with Postoperative Strokes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yi; Cao, Wenjie; Cheng, Xin; Fang, Kun; Zhang, Xiaolong; Gu, Yuxiang; Leng, Bing; Dong, Qiang

    2017-07-01

    Intravenous thrombolysis and intra-arterial thrombectomy are now the standard therapies for patients with acute ischemic stroke. In-house strokes have often been overlooked even at stroke centers and there is no consensus on how they should be managed. Perioperative stroke happens rather frequently but treatment protocol is lacking, In China, the issue of in-house strokes has not been explored. The aim of this study is to explore the current management of in-house stroke and identify the common risk factors associated with perioperative strokes. Altogether, 51,841 patients were admitted to a tertiary hospital in Shanghai and the records of those who had a neurological consult for stroke were reviewed. Their demographics, clinical characteristics, in-hospital complications and operations, and management plans were prospectively studied. Routine laboratory test results and risk factors of these patients were analyzed by multiple logistic regression model. From January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2015, over 1800 patients had neurological consultations. Among these patients, 37 had an in-house stroke and 20 had more severe stroke during the postoperative period. Compared to in-house stroke patients without a procedure or operation, leukocytosis and elevated fasting glucose levels were more common in perioperative strokes. In multiple logistic regression model, perioperative strokes were more likely related to large vessel occlusion. Patients with perioperative strokes had different risk factors and severity from other in-house strokes. For these patients, obtaining a neurological consultation prior to surgery may be appropriate in order to evaluate the risk of perioperative stroke. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  4. Intelligent postoperative morbidity prediction of heart disease using artificial intelligence techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Nan-Chen; Hung, Lun-Ping; Shih, Chun-Che; Keh, Huan-Chao; Chan, Chien-Hui

    2012-06-01

    Endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) is an advanced minimally invasive surgical technology that is helpful for reducing patients' recovery time, postoperative morbidity and mortality. This study proposes an ensemble model to predict postoperative morbidity after EVAR. The ensemble model was developed using a training set of consecutive patients who underwent EVAR between 2000 and 2009. All data required for prediction modeling, including patient demographics, preoperative, co-morbidities, and complication as outcome variables, was collected prospectively and entered into a clinical database. A discretization approach was used to categorize numerical values into informative feature space. Then, the Bayesian network (BN), artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM) were adopted as base models, and stacking combined multiple models. The research outcomes consisted of an ensemble model to predict postoperative morbidity after EVAR, the occurrence of postoperative complications prospectively recorded, and the causal effect knowledge by BNs with Markov blanket concept.

  5. Transient postoperative atrial fibrillation after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair increases mortality risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kothari, Anai N.; Halandras, Pegge M.; Drescher, Max; Blackwell, Robert H.; Graunke, Dawn M.; Kliethermes, Stephanie; Kuo, Paul C.; Cho, Jae S.

    2016-01-01

    Objective The purpose of this study was to determine whether new-onset transient postoperative atrial fibrillation (TPAF) affects mortality rates after abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair and to identify predictors for the development of TPAF. Methods Patients who underwent open aortic repair or endovascular aortic repair for a principal diagnosis AAA were retrospectively identified using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project-State Inpatient Database (Florida) for 2007 to 2011 and monitored longitudinally for 1 year. Inpatient and 1-year mortality rates were compared between those with and without TPAF. TPAF was defined as new-onset atrial fibrillation that developed in the postoperative period and subsequently resolved in patients without a history of atrial fibrillation. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, gender, comorbidities, rupture status, and repair method, were used to assess 1-year survival. Predictive models were built with preoperative patient factors using Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector decision trees and externally validated on patients from California. Results A 3.7% incidence of TPAF was identified among 15,148 patients who underwent AAA repair. The overall mortality rate was 4.3%. The inpatient mortality rate was 12.3% in patients with TPAF vs 4.0% in those without TPAF. In the ruptured setting, the difference in mortality was similar between groups (33.7% vs 39.9%, P = .3). After controlling for age, gender, comorbid disease severity, urgency (ruptured vs nonruptured), and repair method, TPAF was associated with increased 1-year postoperative mortality (hazard ratio, 1.48; P predict an individual's probability of developing TPAF at the point of care. Conclusions The development of TPAF is associated with an increased risk of mortality in patients undergoing repair of nonruptured AAA. Predictive modeling can be used to identify those patients at highest risk for developing TPAF and guide interventions to improve

  6. Risk Factors for Postoperative Encephalopathies in Cardiac Surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Shepelyuk

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to reveal risk factors for postoperative neurological complications (PONC during surgery under extracorporeal circulation (EC. Subjects and methods. Five hundred and forty-eight patients were operated on under EC. Multimodality monitoring was performed in all the patients. Pre-, intra-, and postoperative data were analyzed. Results. Two patient groups were identified. These were 1 59 patients with PONC and 2 489 patients without PONC. The patients with PONC were older than those without PONC (61.95±1.15 and 59±0.4 years and had a smaller body surface area (1.87±0.02 and 1.97±0.01 m2; in the PONC group, there were more women (37.3±6.4 and 22.1±1.9%. In Group 1, comorbidity was a significantly more common indication for surgery (33.9±6.22 and 9.2±1.29%. In this group, cerebral oxygenation (CO was significantly lower (64±1.41 and 69.9±0.38%. In the preoperative period, there were group differences in hemoglobin (Hb, total protein, creatinine, and urea (135±2.03; 142±0.71 g/l, 73±0.93; 74.9±0.3 mmol/l, 104.7±3.3; 96.3±1.06 mmol/l, 7.5±0.4; 6.5±0.1 mmol/l, respectively. The PONC group more frequently exhibited more than 50% internal carotid artery (ICA stenosis (28.8±5.95; 15.3± 1.63%; р<0.05, dyscirculatory encephalopathies (DEP (38.9±6.4 and 19.4±1.8%; р<0.05, CO, Hb, hematocrit, and oxygen delivery were lower in Group 1 at all stages. In the preperfusion period, cardiac index was lower in Group 1 (2.3±0.1 and 2.5±0.03 l/min/m2; р<0.01. In the postper-fusion period, blood pressure was lower in Group 1 (72.3±1.4 and 76.4±0.47 mm Hg; р=0.007 and higher rate was higher (92.65±1.5 and 88.16±0.49 min-1; р=0.007. Lower PCO2a was noted in Group 1. In this group, the patients were given epinephrine more frequently (33.9±6.2 and 20.5±1.8%; р<0.05 and in larger dosages (0.02±0.001 and 0.01±0.003 ^g/kg/min; р<0.05. Conclusion. The preoperative risk factors of CONC is female gender, lower body surface area

  7. Predictive images of postoperative levator resection outcome using image processing software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mawatari Y

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Yuki Mawatari,1 Mikiko Fukushima2 1Igo Ophthalmic Clinic, Kagoshima, 2Department of Ophthalmology, Faculty of Life Science, Kumamoto University, Chuo-ku, Kumamoto, Japan Purpose: This study aims to evaluate the efficacy of processed images to predict postoperative appearance following levator resection.Methods: Analysis involved 109 eyes from 65 patients with blepharoptosis who underwent advancement of levator aponeurosis and Müller’s muscle complex (levator resection. Predictive images were prepared from preoperative photographs using the image processing software (Adobe Photoshop®. Images of selected eyes were digitally enlarged in an appropriate manner and shown to patients prior to surgery.Results: Approximately 1 month postoperatively, we surveyed our patients using questionnaires. Fifty-six patients (89.2% were satisfied with their postoperative appearances, and 55 patients (84.8% positively responded to the usefulness of processed images to predict postoperative appearance.Conclusion: Showing processed images that predict postoperative appearance to patients prior to blepharoptosis surgery can be useful for those patients concerned with their postoperative appearance. This approach may serve as a useful tool to simulate blepharoptosis surgery. Keywords: levator resection, blepharoptosis, image processing, Adobe Photoshop® 

  8. Intraoperative protective mechanical ventilation and risk of postoperative respiratory complications: hospital based registry study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladha, Karim; Vidal Melo, Marcos F; McLean, Duncan J; Wanderer, Jonathan P; Grabitz, Stephanie D; Kurth, Tobias; Eikermann, Matthias

    2015-07-14

    To evaluate the effects of intraoperative protective ventilation on major postoperative respiratory complications and to define safe intraoperative mechanical ventilator settings that do not translate into an increased risk of postoperative respiratory complications. Hospital based registry study. Academic tertiary care hospital and two affiliated community hospitals in Massachusetts, United States. 69,265 consecutively enrolled patients over the age of 18 who underwent a non-cardiac surgical procedure between January 2007 and August 2014 and required general anesthesia with endotracheal intubation. Protective ventilation, defined as a median positive end expiratory pressure (PEEP) of 5 cmH2O or more, a median tidal volume of less than 10 mL/kg of predicted body weight, and a median plateau pressure of less than 30 cmH2O. Composite outcome of major respiratory complications, including pulmonary edema, respiratory failure, pneumonia, and re-intubation. Of the 69,265 enrolled patients 34,800 (50.2%) received protective ventilation and 34,465 (49.8%) received non-protective ventilation intraoperatively. Protective ventilation was associated with a decreased risk of postoperative respiratory complications in multivariable regression (adjusted odds ratio 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.82 to 0.98, P=0.013). The results were similar in the propensity score matched cohort (odds ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.83 to 0.97, P=0.004). A PEEP of 5 cmH2O and median plateau pressures of 16 cmH2O or less were associated with the lowest risk of postoperative respiratory complications. Intraoperative protective ventilation was associated with a decreased risk of postoperative respiratory complications. A PEEP of 5 cmH2O and a plateau pressure of 16 cmH2O or less were identified as protective mechanical ventilator settings. These findings suggest that protective thresholds differ for intraoperative ventilation in patients with normal lungs compared with those used for patients

  9. A combination of preoperative CT findings and postoperative serum CEA levels improves recurrence prediction for stage I lung adenocarcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamazaki, Motohiko, E-mail: xackey2001@gmail.com [Department of Radiology, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences (Japan); Ishikawa, Hiroyuki [Department of Radiology, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences (Japan); Kunii, Ryosuke [Division of Cellular and Molecular Pathology, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences (Japan); Tasaki, Akiko; Sato, Suguru; Ikeda, Yohei; Yoshimura, Norihiko [Department of Radiology, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences (Japan); Hashimoto, Takehisa; Tsuchida, Masanori [Division of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences (Japan); Aoyama, Hidefumi [Department of Radiology, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences (Japan)

    2015-01-15

    Objectives: To assess the prognostic value of combined evaluation of preoperative CT findings and pre/postoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels for pathological stage I lung adenocarcinoma. Methods: This retrospective study included 250 consecutive patients who underwent complete resection for ≤3-cm pathological stage I (T1–2aN0M0) adenocarcinomas (132 men, 118 women; mean age, 67.8 years). Radiologists evaluated following CT findings: maximum tumor diameter, percentage of solid component (%solid), air bronchogram, spiculation, adjacency of bullae or interstitial pneumonia (IP) around the tumor, notch, and pleural indent. These CT findings, pre/postoperative CEA levels, age, gender, and Brinkman index were assessed by Cox proportional hazards model to determine the best prognostic model. Prognostic accuracy was examined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: Median follow-up period was 73.2 months. In multivariate analysis, high %solid, adjacency of bullae or IP around the tumor, and high postoperative CEA levels comprised the best combination for predicting recurrence (P < 0.05). A combination of these three findings had a greater accuracy in predicting 5-year disease-free survival than did %solid alone (AUC = 0.853 versus 0.792; P = 0.023), with a sensitivity of 85.7% and a specificity of 74.3% at the optimal threshold. The best cut-off values of %solid and postoperative CEA levels for predicting high-risk patients were ≥48% and ≥3.7 ng/mL, respectively. Conclusion: Compared to %solid alone, combined evaluation of %solid, adjacency of bullae or IP change around the tumor, and postoperative CEA levels improves recurrence prediction for stage I lung adenocarcinoma.

  10. Lung perfusion SPECT in predicting postoperative pulmonary function in lung cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirose, Yoshiaki; Imaeda, Takeyoshi; Doi, Hidetaka; Kokubo, Mitsuharu; Sakai, Satoshi; Hirose, Hajime

    1993-01-01

    The aim of this prospective study is to evaluate the availability of preoperative perfusion SPECT in predicting postoperative pulmonary function following resection. Twenty-three patients with lung cancer who were candidates for lobectomy were investigated preoperatively with spirometry, x-ray computed tomography and 99m Tc-macroaggregated albumin SPECT. Their postoperative pulmonary functions were predicted with these examinations. The forced vital capacity and the forced expiratory volume in one second were selected as parameters for overall pulmonary function. The postoperative pulmonary function was predicted by the following formula: Predicted postoperative value=observed preoperative value x precent perfusion of the lung not to be resected. The patients were reinvestigated with spirometry at 3 months and 6 months after lobectomy, and the values obtained were statistically compared with the predicted values. Close relationships were found between predicted and observed forced vital capacity (r=0.87, p<0.001), and predicted and observed forced expiratory volume in one second (r=0.90, p<0.001). The accurate prediction of pulmonary function after lobectomy could be achieved by means of lung perfusion SPECT. (author)

  11. Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

    2015-02-01

    BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

  12. Prediction of postoperative respiratory function of lung cancer patients using quantitative lung scans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konishi, Hiroshi

    1982-01-01

    Quantitative sup(99m)Tc-MISA inhalation scan and sup(99m)Tc-MAA perfusion scan were performed in 35 patients with lung cancer who underwent lobectomies. Quantitative 133 Xe ventilation-perfusion scans were also performed in 34 patients with lung cancer who underwent lobectomies. To predict functional loss after lobectomy, the proportion of the No. of segments in the lobe to be resected to the No. of entire segments of that lung was provided for the study. Postoperative FVC, FEVsub(1.0) and MVV were predicted in the study, and which were compared to the respiratory function at one month after operation and more than four months after operation. The predicted postoperative respiratory function was highly correlated with the actually observed postoperative respiratory function (0.7413 lt r lt 0.9278, p lt 0.001). In this study, the postoperative respiratory function was proven to be quite accurately predicted preoperatively with combination of quantitative lung scans and spirometric respiratory function. Therefore this method is useful not only for judgement of operative indication but also for choice of operative method and for counterplan of postoperative respiratory insufficiency. (J.P.N.)

  13. Prediction of postoperative pulmonary function following thoracic operations. Value of ventilation-perfusion scanning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bria, W.F.; Kanarek, D.J.; Kazemi, H.

    1983-01-01

    Surgical resection of lung cancer is frequently required in patients with severely impaired lung function resulting from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Twenty patients with obstructive lung disease and cancer (mean preoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1] . 1.73 L) were studied preoperatively and postoperatively by spirometry and radionuclide perfusion, single-breath ventilation, and washout techniques to test the ability of these methods to predict preoperatively the partial loss of lung function by the resection. Postoperative FEV1 and forced vital capacity (FVC) were accurately predicted by the formula: postoperative FEV1 (or FVC) . preoperative FEV1 X percent function of regions of lung not to be resected (r . 0.88 and 0.95, respectively). Ventilation and perfusion scans are equally effective in prediction. Washout data add to the sophistication of the method by permitting the qualitative evaluation of ventilation during tidal breathing. Criteria for patients requiring the study are suggested

  14. Utility of screening questionnaire and polysomnography to predict postoperative outcomes in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kako, Hiromi; Tripi, Jennifer; Walia, Hina; Tumin, Dmitry; Splaingard, Mark; Jatana, Kris R; Tobias, Joseph D; Raman, Vidya T

    2017-11-01

    The prevalence of pediatric obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has increased concurrently with the increasing prevalence of obesity. We have previously validated a short questionnaire predicting the occurrence of OSA on polysomnography (PSG). This follow-up study assessed the utility of the questionnaire in predicting postoperative outcomes. Children undergoing surgery and completing a sleep study were prospectively screened for OSA using a short questionnaire. Procedures within 1 year of PSG were included in the analysis. Questionnaires were scored according to a cutoff previously deemed optimal for predicting OSA (apnea-hypopnea index ≥ 5) on the sleep study. Postoperative outcomes included prolonged (>60 min) length of stay (LOS) in the post-anesthesia care unit (PACU) and oxygen requirement in the PACU. The study cohort included 185 patients (100/85 male/female) age 8 ± 4 years, undergoing adenotonsillectomy (n = 109), other ear, nose, and throat (ENT) procedures (n = 18), or non-ENT procedures (n = 58). There were 45 patients with OSA documented by PSG and 122 patients identified as likely to have OSA according to questionnaire responses (89% sensitivity, 41% specificity). PACU LOS was prolonged in 55/181 (30%) cases and supplemental oxygen was used in the PACU in 29/181 (16%) cases. In separate multivariable models, supplemental oxygen use in the PACU was more common if a patient scored ≥2/6 points on the short questionnaire scale (OR = 5.0; 95% CI: 1.3, 19.9; p = 0.023) or if the patient was diagnosed with OSA on PSG (OR = 4.6; 95% CI: 1.6, 13.5; p = 0.005). Neither OSA on PSG nor questionnaire score ≥2/6 were associated with prolonged PACU stay. Both OSA diagnosis based on the AHI and the questionnaire scale achieved comparable predictive value for the need for oxygen use in the PACU. The utility of the questionnaire in predicting rare adverse events (e.g., unplanned admission or rapid response team activation) remains to be determined

  15. Prediction of postoperative lung function after pulmonary resection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshikawa, Koichi

    1988-01-01

    Lung scintigraphy and ordinary lung function test as well as split lung function test by using bronchospirometry was performed in 78 patients with primary lung cancer and clinical significance of ventilation and perfusion scintigraphy was evaluated. Results obtained from this study are as follows. 1) The ratio of right VC to total VC obtained by preoperative bronchospirometry was well correlated to the ratio of right lung count to the total lung count obtained by ventiration and/or perfusion scintigraphy (r = 0.84, r = 0.69). 2) Evaluation of the data obtained from the patients undergoing pneumonectomy indicated that the right and left VC obtained preoperatively by bronchospirometry have their clinical significance only in the form of left to right ratio not in the form their absolure value. 3) As to the reliability of predicting the residual vital capacity after pneumonectomy on the basis of left-to-right of lung scintigraphy, ventilation scintigraphy is more reliable than perfusion scintigraphy. 4) Irrespective of using ventilation scintigraphy or perfusion scintigraphy, Ali's formular showed high reliability in predicting the residual vital capacity as well as FEV 1.0 after lobectomy. 5) Reduction of the perfusion rate in the operated side of the lung is more marked than of the ventilation rate, resulting in a significant elevation of ventilation/perfusion ratio of the operated side of the lung. From the results descrived above, it can be said that lung ventilation and perfusion scintigraphy are very useful method to predict the residual lung function as well as the change of ventilation/perfusion ratio after pulmonary resection. (author)

  16. Microsatellite Status of Primary Colorectal Cancer Predicts the Incidence of Postoperative Colorectal Neoplasms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takiyama, Aki; Tanaka, Toshiaki; Yamamoto, Yoko; Hata, Keisuke; Ishihara, Soichiro; Nozawa, Hiroaki; Kawai, Kazushige; Kiyomatsu, Tomomichi; Nishikawa, Takeshi; Otani, Kensuke; Sasaki, Kazuhito; Watanabe, Toshiaki

    2017-10-01

    Few studies have evaluated the risk of postoperative colorectal neoplasms stratified by the nature of primary colorectal cancer (CRC). In this study, we revealed it on the basis of the microsatellite (MS) status of primary CRC. We retrospectively reviewed 338 patients with CRC and calculated the risk of neoplasms during postoperative surveillance colonoscopy in association with the MS status of primary CRC. A propensity score method was applied. We identified a higher incidence of metachronous rectal neoplasms after the resection of MS stable CRC than MS instable CRC (adjusted HR 5.74, p=0.04). We also observed a higher incidence of colorectal tubular adenoma in patients with MSS CRC (adjusted hazard ratio 7.09, pcolorectal cancer influenced the risk of postoperative colorectal neoplasms. Copyright© 2017, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

  17. Cardiovascular risk prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graversen, Peter; Abildstrøm, Steen Z.; Jespersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    Aim European society of cardiology (ESC) guidelines recommend that cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification in asymptomatic individuals is based on the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm, which estimates individual 10-year risk of death from CVD. We assessed the potential...

  18. Prediction of postoperative pulmonary function using 99mTc-MAA perfusion lung SPECT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosokawa, Nobuyuki; Tanabe, Masatada; Satoh, Katashi; Takashima, Hitoshi; Ohkawa, Motoomi; Maeda, Masazumi; Tamai, Toyosato; Kojima, Kanji.

    1995-01-01

    In order to predict postoperative pulmonary function, 99m Tc-MAA perfusion lung SPECT and spirometry were performed preoperatively in 52 patients with resectable primary lung cancer; 44 underwent lobectomy, eight pneumonectomy. Local pulmonary function (called local effective volume) was evaluated according to the degree of radionuclide distribution of each voxel in the SPECT images. The total effective volume was defined as the sum of the local effective volume, and the residual effective volume was the total effective volume excluding loss after operation. Predicted pulmonary function (VC and FEV 1.0) was calculated by the following formula: Predicted value=preoperative value x percent of the residual effective volume. Postoperative pulmonary function was predicted in the same patients by means of 99m Tc-MAA perfusion lung planar scintigraphy and X-ray CT. The patients were reinvestigated with spirometry at one and four months after surgery, and the values were compared with the predicted values. The correlations between the predicted values using SPECT and measured postoperative pulmonary function were highly significant (VC: r=0.867, FEV1.0: r=0.864 one month after operation; VC: r=0.860, FEV1.0: r=0.907 4 months after operation). The predicted values calculated using SPECT were accurate compared with the predicted values calculated using planar scintigraphy or X-ray CT. The patients with predicted FEV1.0 of less than 0.8 liter required home oxygen therapy. This method is valuable for the prediction of postoperative pulmonary function before the surgical procedure. (author)

  19. is there an increased risk of post-operative surgical site infection

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-09-06

    Sep 6, 2012 ... requiring implant orthopaedic surgery are at an increased risk for post-operative surgical ... further studies should determine the effect of reduced CD4 counts, viral load .... Language not Enlish, French, Ducth or German (n=2).

  20. Risk factors for postoperative complications after total laryngectomy following radiotherapy or chemoradiation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, N B; Kristensen, C.A.; Andersen, E

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To determine the rates of and risk factors for postoperative complications following total laryngectomy in patients treated with radiotherapy or chemoradiation. DESIGN: Retrospective longitudinal study. SETTING: Tertiary medical centres. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 143 patients undergoin...

  1. Preoperative MRI findings predict two-year postoperative clinical outcome in lumbar spinal stenosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pekka Kuittinen

    Full Text Available To study the predictive value of preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI findings for the two-year postoperative clinical outcome in lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS.84 patients (mean age 63±11 years, male 43% with symptoms severe enough to indicate LSS surgery were included in this prospective observational single-center study. Preoperative MRI of the lumbar spine was performed with a 1.5-T unit. The imaging protocol conformed to the requirements of the American College of Radiology for the performance of MRI of the adult spine. Visual and quantitative assessment of MRI was performed by one experienced neuroradiologist. At the two-year postoperative follow-up, functional ability was assessed with the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI 0-100% and treadmill test (0-1000 m, pain symptoms with the overall Visual Analogue Scale (VAS 0-100 mm, and specific low back pain (LBP and specific leg pain (LP separately with a numeric rating scale from 0-10 (NRS-11. Satisfaction with the surgical outcome was also assessed.Preoperative severe central stenosis predicted postoperatively lower LP, LBP, and VAS when compared in patients with moderate central stenosis (p<0.05. Moreover, severe stenosis predicted higher postoperative satisfaction (p = 0.029. Preoperative scoliosis predicted an impaired outcome in the ODI (p = 0.031 and lowered the walking distance in the treadmill test (p = 0.001. The preoperative finding of only one stenotic level in visual assessment predicted less postoperative LBP when compared with patients having 2 or more stenotic levels (p = 0.026. No significant differences were detected between quantitative measurements and the patient outcome.Routine preoperative lumbar spine MRI can predict the patient outcome in a two-year follow up in patients with LSS surgery. Severe central stenosis and one-level central stenosis are predictors of good outcome. Preoperative finding of scoliosis may indicate worse functional ability.

  2. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  3. Prediction of postoperative pain by preoperative pain response to heat stimulation in total knee arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lunn, Troels H; Gaarn-Larsen, Lissi; Kehlet, Henrik

    2013-01-01

    It has been estimated that up to 54% of the variance in postoperative pain experience may be predicted with preoperative pain responses to experimental stimuli, with suprathreshold heat pain as the most consistent test modality. We aimed to explore if 2 heat test paradigms could predict postopera......It has been estimated that up to 54% of the variance in postoperative pain experience may be predicted with preoperative pain responses to experimental stimuli, with suprathreshold heat pain as the most consistent test modality. We aimed to explore if 2 heat test paradigms could predict...... and logistic regressions analyses were carried out including 8 potential preoperative explanatory variables (among these anxiety, depression, preoperative pain and pain catastrophizing) to assess pain response to preoperative heat pain stimulation as independent predictor for postoperative pain. 100 patients...... by the linear and logistic regression analyses, where only anxiety, preoperative pain and pain catastrophizing were significant explanatory variables (but with low R-Squares;0.05-0.08). Pain responses to 2 types of preoperative heat stimuli were not independent clinical relevant predictors for postoperative...

  4. Risk Factors for the Postoperative Recurrence of Instability After Arthroscopic Bankart Repair in Athletes

    OpenAIRE

    Nakagawa, Shigeto; Mae, Tatsuo; Sato, Seira; Okimura, Shinichiro; Kuroda, Miki

    2017-01-01

    Background: Several risk factors for the postoperative recurrence of instability after arthroscopic Bankart repair have been reported, but there have been few detailed investigations of the specific risk factors in relation to the type of sport. Purpose: This study investigated the postoperative recurrence of instability after arthroscopic Bankart repair without additional reinforcement procedures in competitive athletes, including athletes with a large glenoid defect. The purpose of this stu...

  5. Psychological stress as a risk factor for postoperative keloid recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furtado, Fabianne; Hochman, Bernardo; Farber, Paulo Luiz; Muller, Marisa Campio; Hayashi, Lilian Fukusima; Ferreira, Lydia Masako

    2012-04-01

    To investigate psychological stress on the prognosis of the postoperative recurrence of keloids. Patients with keloids (n=25), candidates for surgical resection and postoperative radiotherapy, had their psychological stress evaluated on the day before the surgical procedure. The parameters evaluated were pain and itching (Visual Numerical Scale), quality of life (Questionnaire QualiFibro/Cirurgia Plástica-UNIFESP), perceived stress (Perceived Stress Scale), depression and anxiety (Hospital Depression and Anxiety Scale), salivary cortisol and minimum and maximum galvanic skin responses (GSR) at rest and under stress (i.e., while the questionnaires were being filled out). Patients were evaluated during the 3rd, 6th, 9th and 12th months of postoperative care. During each return visit, two experts classified the lesions as non-recurrent and recurrent. The recurrence group presented the greatest values in GSR during a stressful situation. The chance of recurrence increased by 34% at each increase of 1000 arbitrary units in maximum GSR during stress. Psychological stress influenced the recurrence of keloids. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Artificial Neural Network System to Predict the Postoperative Outcome of Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminsharifi, Alireza; Irani, Dariush; Pooyesh, Shima; Parvin, Hamid; Dehghani, Sakineh; Yousofi, Khalilolah; Fazel, Ebrahim; Zibaie, Fatemeh

    2017-05-01

    To construct, train, and apply an artificial neural network (ANN) system for prediction of different outcome variables of percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). We calculated predictive accuracy, sensitivity, and precision for each outcome variable. During the study period, all adult patients who underwent PCNL at our institute were enrolled in the study. Preoperative and postoperative variables were recorded, and stone-free status was assessed perioperatively with computed tomography scans. MATLAB software was used to design and train the network in a feed forward back-propagation error adjustment scheme. Preoperative and postoperative data from 200 patients (training set) were used to analyze the effect and relative relevance of preoperative values on postoperative parameters. The validated adequately trained ANN was used to predict postoperative outcomes in the subsequent 254 adult patients (test set) whose preoperative values were serially fed into the system. To evaluate system accuracy in predicting each postoperative variable, predicted values were compared with actual outcomes. Two hundred fifty-four patients (155 [61%] males) were considered the test set. Mean stone burden was 6702.86 ± 381.6 mm 3 . Overall stone-free rate was 76.4%. Fifty-four out of 254 patients (21.3%) required ancillary procedures (shockwave lithotripsy 5.9%, transureteral lithotripsy 10.6%, and repeat PCNL 4.7%). The accuracy and sensitivity of the system in predicting different postoperative variables ranged from 81.0% to 98.2%. As a complex nonlinear mathematical model, our ANN system is an interconnected data mining tool, which prospectively analyzes and "learns" the relationships between variables. The accuracy and sensitivity of the system for predicting the stone-free rate, the need for blood transfusion, and post-PCNL ancillary procedures ranged from 81.0% to 98.2%.The stone burden and the stone morphometry were among the most significant preoperative characteristics that

  7. Feasibility of a Modified E-PASS and POSSUM System for Postoperative Risk Assessment in Patients with Spinal Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chun, Dong Hyun; Kim, Do Young; Choi, Sun Kyu; Shin, Dong Ah; Ha, Yoon; Kim, Keung Nyun; Yoon, Do Heum; Yi, Seong

    2018-04-01

    This retrospective case control study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of using Estimation of Physiological Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) and Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) systems in patients undergoing spinal surgical procedures. Degenerative spine disease has increased in incidence in aging societies, as has the number of older adult patients undergoing spinal surgery. Many older adults are at a high surgical risk because of comorbidity and poor general health. We retrospectively reviewed 217 patients who had undergone spinal surgery at a single tertiary care. We investigated complications within 1 month after surgery. Criteria for both skin incision in E-PASS and operation magnitude in the POSSUM system were modified to fit spine surgery. We calculated the E-PASS and POSSUM scores for enrolled patients, and investigated the relationship between postoperative complications and both surgical risk scoring systems. To reinforce the predictive ability of the E-PASS system, we adjusted equations and developed modified E-PASS systems. The overall complication rate for spinal surgery was 22.6%. Forty-nine patients experienced 58 postoperative complications. Nineteen major complications, including hematoma, deep infection, pleural effusion, progression of weakness, pulmonary edema, esophageal injury, myocardial infarction, pneumonia, reoperation, renal failure, sepsis, and death, occurred in 17 patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicted postoperative complications after spine surgery was 0.588 for E-PASS and 0.721 for POSSUM. For predicted major postoperative complications, the AUC increased to 0.619 for E-PASS and 0.842 for POSSUM. The AUC of the E-PASS system increased from 0.588 to 0.694 with the Modified E-PASS equation. The POSSUM system may be more useful than the E-PASS system for estimating postoperative surgical risk in patients undergoing

  8. [Circulating miR-152 helps early prediction of postoperative biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jun-Feng; Liao, Yu-Feng; Ma, Jian-Bo; Mao, Qi-Feng; Jia, Guang-Cheng; Dong, Xue-Jun

    2017-07-01

    To investigate the value of circulating miR-152 in the early prediction of postoperative biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer. Sixty-six cases of prostate cancer were included in this study, 35 with and 31 without biochemical recurrence within two years postoperatively, and another 31 healthy individuals were enrolled as normal controls. The relative expression levels of circulating miR-152 in the serum of the subjects were detected by qRT-PCR, its value in the early diagnosis of postoperative biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer was assessed by ROC curve analysis, and the correlation of its expression level with the clinicopathological parameters of the patients were analyzed. The expression of circulating miR-152 was significantly lower in the serum of the prostate cancer patients than in the normal controls (t = -5.212, P = 0.001), and so was it in the patients with than in those without postoperative biochemical recurrence (t = -5.727, P = 0.001). The ROC curve for the value of miR-152 in the early prediction of postoperative biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer showed the area under the curve (AUC) to be 0.906 (95% CI: 0.809-0.964), with a sensitivity of 91.4% and a specificity of 80.6%. The expression level of miR-152 was correlated with the Gleason score, clinical stage of prostate cancer, biochemical recurrence, and bone metastasis (P 0.05). The expression level of circulating miR-152 is significantly reduced in prostate cancer patients with biochemical recurrence after prostatectomy and could be a biomarker in the early prediction of postoperative biochemical recurrence of the malignancy.

  9. Risk-adjusted econometric model to estimate postoperative costs: an additional instrument for monitoring performance after major lung resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunelli, Alessandro; Salati, Michele; Refai, Majed; Xiumé, Francesco; Rocco, Gaetano; Sabbatini, Armando

    2007-09-01

    The objectives of this study were to develop a risk-adjusted model to estimate individual postoperative costs after major lung resection and to use it for internal economic audit. Variable and fixed hospital costs were collected for 679 consecutive patients who underwent major lung resection from January 2000 through October 2006 at our unit. Several preoperative variables were used to develop a risk-adjusted econometric model from all patients operated on during the period 2000 through 2003 by a stepwise multiple regression analysis (validated by bootstrap). The model was then used to estimate the postoperative costs in the patients operated on during the 3 subsequent periods (years 2004, 2005, and 2006). Observed and predicted costs were then compared within each period by the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Multiple regression and bootstrap analysis yielded the following model predicting postoperative cost: 11,078 + 1340.3X (age > 70 years) + 1927.8X cardiac comorbidity - 95X ppoFEV1%. No differences between predicted and observed costs were noted in the first 2 periods analyzed (year 2004, $6188.40 vs $6241.40, P = .3; year 2005, $6308.60 vs $6483.60, P = .4), whereas in the most recent period (2006) observed costs were significantly lower than the predicted ones ($3457.30 vs $6162.70, P model may be used as a methodologic template for economic audit in our specialty and complement more traditional outcome measures in the assessment of performance.

  10. Quantifying prognosis with risk predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pace, Nathan L; Eberhart, Leopold H J; Kranke, Peter R

    2012-01-01

    Prognosis is a forecast, based on present observations in a patient, of their probable outcome from disease, surgery and so on. Research methods for the development of risk probabilities may not be familiar to some anaesthesiologists. We briefly describe methods for identifying risk factors and risk scores. A probability prediction rule assigns a risk probability to a patient for the occurrence of a specific event. Probability reflects the continuum between absolute certainty (Pi = 1) and certified impossibility (Pi = 0). Biomarkers and clinical covariates that modify risk are known as risk factors. The Pi as modified by risk factors can be estimated by identifying the risk factors and their weighting; these are usually obtained by stepwise logistic regression. The accuracy of probabilistic predictors can be separated into the concepts of 'overall performance', 'discrimination' and 'calibration'. Overall performance is the mathematical distance between predictions and outcomes. Discrimination is the ability of the predictor to rank order observations with different outcomes. Calibration is the correctness of prediction probabilities on an absolute scale. Statistical methods include the Brier score, coefficient of determination (Nagelkerke R2), C-statistic and regression calibration. External validation is the comparison of the actual outcomes to the predicted outcomes in a new and independent patient sample. External validation uses the statistical methods of overall performance, discrimination and calibration and is uniformly recommended before acceptance of the prediction model. Evidence from randomised controlled clinical trials should be obtained to show the effectiveness of risk scores for altering patient management and patient outcomes.

  11. [Preventive efficacy of ondansetron and granisetron for postoperative nausea and vomiting in high risk patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Xiang; Zhu, Bo; Ye, Tie-hu

    2011-08-01

    To compare the efficacy of ondansetron and granisetron in the prevention of postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) in high-risk patients. Totally 200 patients with three key risk factors for PONV (female, non-smoking and postoperative opioid use) were equally randomized into ondansetron group and granisetron group. Ondansetron (4 mg) or granisetron (3 mg) was intravenously administered upon the completion of surgery. The episodes of nausea and vomiting were observed for 24 hours after surgery. A significantly greater proportion of patients in granisetron group achieved a complete response (i.e., no PONV or rescue medication) during the first 24 hours postoperatively versus those in ondansetron group (62.6% vs. 46.9%, respectively; P=0.048). There were no significant differences in terms of postoperative nausea incidences (42.9% vs. 34.3%, respectively), postoperative vomiting incidences (25.5% vs. 20.2%, respectively) and postoperative rescue anti-emetics incidences (19.4% vs. 15.2%, respectively) (P>0.05). Granisetron is more effective than ondansetron in preventing PONV in high-risk patients during the first 24 hours postoperatively.

  12. Risk factors for postoperative liver failure after hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maeda, Yoshitaka; Nishida, Minekatsu; Takao, Takashi; Mori, Naohide; Tamesa, Takao; Tangoku, Akira; Oka, Masaaki

    2004-01-01

    Selection of patients for hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma conventionally has been based upon Child-Pugh grading. However, postoperative liver failure after hepatectomy is a major cause of hospital mortality. A new predictor of postoperative liver failure is required. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors for postoperative liver failure after hepatectomy. Perioperative risk factors for liver failure after hepatectomy were analyzed in 112 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma Eight of these patients died of liver failure. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression was performed to investigate significant independent factors among 17 variables, including the serum alkaline phosphatase ratio (ALPR) on the first day after hepatectomy. ALPR was calculated as the postoperative ALP level divided by the ALP level before surgery. Significant risk factors of postoperative liver failure were ALPR on postoperative day 1 (ALPR1), sex, operative blood loss, and operative procedure. As an indicator of liver failure, the diagnostic accuracy of the ALPR1 was 93.7% when the ALPR was less than 0.4 on the first postoperative day. The ALPR and the serum total bilirubin concentration after hepatectomy were uncorrelated. ALPR1 is a useful predictor of liver failure after hepatectomy.

  13. SuPAR predicts postoperative complications and mortality in patients with asymptomatic aortic stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hodges, Gethin W; Bang, Casper N; Eugen-Olsen, Jesper

    2018-01-01

    complications with a HR of 2.7 (95% CI 1.5 to 5.1, P=0.002), per doubling in suPAR. After adjusting for the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation or Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk score, suPAR remained associated with postoperative mortality with a HR 3.2 (95% CI 1.2 to 8.6, P=0.025) and 2...

  14. Patients with a high risk for obstructive sleep apnea syndrome: postoperative respiratory complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, H; Xará, D; Mendonça, J; Santos, A; Abelha, F J

    2013-01-01

    STOP-BANG score (snore; tired; observed apnea; arterial pressure; body mass index; age; neck circumference and gender) can predict the risk of a patient having Obstructive Syndrome Apnea (OSA). The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence STOP-BANG score≥3, in surgical patients admitted to the Post-Anesthesia Care Unit (PACU). Observational, prospective study conducted in a post-anesthesia care unit (PACU) during three weeks (2011). The study population consisted of adult patients after noncardiac and non-neurological surgery. Patients were classified as high risk of OSA (HR-OSA) if STOP-BANG score≥3 and Low-risk of OSA (LR-OSA) if STOP-BANG score<3 (LR-OSA). Patient demographics, intraoperative and postoperative data were collected. Patient characteristics were compared using Mann-Whitney U-test, t-test for independent groups, and chi-square or Fisher's exact test. A total of 357 patients were admitted to PACU; 340 met the inclusion criteria. 179 (52%) were considered HR-OSA. These patients were older, more likely to be masculine, had higher BMI, higher ASA physical status, higher incidence of ischemic heart disease, heart failure, hypertension, dyslipidemia and underwent more frequently insulin treatment for diabetes. These patients had more frequently mild/moderated hypoxia in the PACU (9% vs. 3%, p=0.012) and had a higher incidence of residual neuromuscular blockade (NMB) (20% vs. 16%, p=0.035). Patients with HR-OSA had a longer hospital stay. Patients with HR-OSA had an important incidence among patients scheduled for surgery in our hospital. These patients had more co-morbidities and were more prone to post-operative complications. Copyright © 2012 Sociedade Portuguesa de Pneumologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  15. Prediction of postoperative pain by preoperative pain response to heat stimulation in total knee arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunn, Troels H; Gaarn-Larsen, Lissi; Kehlet, Henrik

    2013-09-01

    It has been estimated that up to 54% of the variance in postoperative pain experience may be predicted with preoperative pain responses to experimental stimuli, with suprathreshold heat pain as the most consistent test modality. This study aimed to explore whether 2 heat test paradigms could predict postoperative pain after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Patients scheduled for elective, unilateral, primary TKA under spinal anesthesia were consecutively included in this prospective, observational study. Perioperative analgesia was standardized for all patients. Outcomes were postoperative pain during walk: from 6 to 24 hours (primary), from postoperative day (POD) 1 to 7 (secondary), and from POD 14 to 30 (tertiary). Two preoperative tonic heat stimuli with 47°C were used; short (5 seconds) and long (7 minutes) stimulation upon which patients rated their pain response on an electronic visual analog scale. Multivariate stepwise linear and logistic regressions analyses were carried out, including 8 potential preoperative explanatory variables (among these anxiety, depression, preoperative pain, and pain catastrophizing) to assess pain response to preoperative heat pain stimulation as an independent predictor for postoperative pain. A total of 100 patients were included, and 3 were later excluded. A weak correlation [rho (95% confidence interval); P value] was observed between pain from POD 1 to 7 and pain response to short [rho=0.25(0.04 to 0.44); P=.02] and to long [rho=0.27 (0.07 to 0.46); P=.01] heat pain stimulation. However, these positive correlations were not supported by the linear and logistic regression analyses, in which only anxiety, preoperative pain, and pain catastrophizing were significant explanatory variables (but with low R-squares; 0.05 to 0.08). Pain responses to 2 types of preoperative heat stimuli were not independent clinically relevant predictors for postoperative pain after TKA. Copyright © 2013 International Association for the Study of

  16. Measurement of lung volume by lung perfusion scanning using SPECT and prediction of postoperative respiratory function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andou, Akio; Shimizu, Nobuyosi; Maruyama, Shuichiro

    1992-01-01

    Measurement of lung volume by lung perfusion scanning using single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and its usefulness for the prediction of respiratory function after lung resection were investigated. The lung volumes calculated in 5 patients by SPECT (threshold level 20%) using 99m Tc-macroaggregated albumin (MAA), related very closely to the actually measured lung volumes. This results prompted us to calculate the total lung volume and the volume of the lobe to be resected in 18 patients with lung cancer by SPECT. Based on the data obtained, postoperative respiratory function was predicted. The predicted values of forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume (FEV 1.0 ), and maximum vital volume (MVV) showed closer correlations with the actually measured postoperative values (FVC, FEV 1.0 , MVV : r=0.944, r=0.917, r=0.795 respectively), than the values predicted by the ordinary lung perfusion scanning. This method facilitates more detailed evaluation of local lung function on a lobe-by-lobe basis, and can be applied clinically to predict postoperative respiratory function. (author)

  17. Quality assessment of cataract surgery in Denmark - risk of retinal detachment and postoperative endophthalmitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerrum, Søren Solborg

    2015-01-01

    The main purpose of this thesis was to examine whether the Danish National Patient Registry (NPR) could be used to monitor and assess the quality of cataract surgery in Denmark by studying the risks of two serious postoperative complications following cataract surgery - retinal detachment (RD......) and postoperative endophthalmitis (PE). The thesis consists of four retrospective studies. In the first study (paper I), we used data from the NPR in the calendar period 2000-2010 to investigate the risk of pseudophakic retinal detachment (PRD) using the fellow non-operated eyes of the patients as reference....... The study showed that over a 10-year study period, the risk of PRD was increased by a factor of 4.2 irrespective of sex and age. The risk of PRD was highest in the first part of the postoperative period and then gradually decreased but remained statistically significantly higher than the risk of RD in non...

  18. Prediction of immediate postoperative pain using the analgesia/nociception index: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boselli, E; Bouvet, L; Bégou, G; Dabouz, R; Davidson, J; Deloste, J-Y; Rahali, N; Zadam, A; Allaouchiche, B

    2014-04-01

    The analgesia/nociception index (ANI) is derived from heart rate variability, ranging from 0 (maximal nociception) to 100 (maximal analgesia), to reflect the analgesia/nociception balance during general anaesthesia. This should be correlated with immediate postoperative pain in the post-anaesthesia care unit (PACU). The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of ANI measured at arousal from general anaesthesia to predict immediate postoperative pain on arrival in PACU. Two hundred patients undergoing ear, nose, and throat or lower limb orthopaedic surgery with general anaesthesia using an inhalational agent and remifentanil were included in this prospective observational study. The ANI was measured immediately before tracheal extubation and pain intensity was assessed within 10 min of arrival in PACU using a 0-10 numerical rating scale (NRS). The relationship between ANI and NRS was assessed using linear regression. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the performance of ANI to predict NRS>3. A negative linear relationship was observed between ANI immediately before extubation and NRS on arrival in PACU. Using a threshold of 3 were both 86% with 92% negative predictive value, corresponding to an area under the ROC curve of 0.89. The measurement of ANI immediately before extubation after inhalation-remifentanil anaesthesia was significantly associated with pain intensity on arrival in PACU. The performance of ANI for the prediction of immediate postoperative pain is good and may assist physicians in optimizing acute pain management. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01796249.

  19. Elevated body mass index and risk of postoperative CSF leak following transsphenoidal surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dlouhy, Brian J.; Madhavan, Karthik; Clinger, John D.; Reddy, Ambur; Dawson, Jeffrey D.; O’Brien, Erin K.; Chang, Eugene; Graham, Scott M.; Greenlee, Jeremy D. W.

    2012-01-01

    Object Postoperative CSF leakage can be a serious complication after a transsphenoidal surgical approach. An elevated body mass index (BMI) is a significant risk factor for spontaneous CSF leaks. However, there is no evidence correlating BMI with postoperative CSF leak after transsphenoidal surgery. The authors hypothesized that patients with elevated BMI would have a higher incidence of CSF leakage complications following transsphenoidal surgery. Methods The authors conducted a retrospective review of 121 patients who, between August 2005 and March 2010, underwent endoscopic endonasal transsphenoidal surgeries for resection of primarily sellar masses. Patients requiring extended transsphenoidal approaches were excluded. A multivariate statistical analysis was performed to investigate the association of BMI and other risk factors with postoperative CSF leakage. Results In 92 patients, 96 endonasal endoscopic transsphenoidal surgeries were performed that met inclusion criteria. Thirteen postoperative leaks occurred and required subsequent treatment, including lumbar drainage and/or reoperation. The average BMI of patients with a postoperative CSF leak was significantly greater than that in patients with no postoperative CSF leak (39.2 vs 32.9 kg/m2, p = 0.006). Multivariate analyses indicate that for every 5-kg/m2 increase in BMI, patients undergoing a transsphenoidal approach for a primarily sellar mass have 1.61 times the odds (95% CI 1.10–2.29, p = 0.016, by multivariate logistic regression) of having a postoperative CSF leak. Conclusions Elevated BMI is an independent predictor of postoperative CSF leak after an endonasal endoscopic transsphenoidal approach. The authors recommend that patients with BMI greater than 30 kg/m2 have meticulous sellar reconstruction at surgery and close monitoring postoperatively. PMID:22443502

  20. Predictive images of postoperative levator resection outcome using image processing software

    OpenAIRE

    Mawatari, Yuki; Fukushima, Mikiko

    2016-01-01

    Yuki Mawatari,1 Mikiko Fukushima2 1Igo Ophthalmic Clinic, Kagoshima, 2Department of Ophthalmology, Faculty of Life Science, Kumamoto University, Chuo-ku, Kumamoto, Japan Purpose: This study aims to evaluate the efficacy of processed images to predict postoperative appearance following levator resection.Methods: Analysis involved 109 eyes from 65 patients with blepharoptosis who underwent advancement of levator aponeurosis and Müller’s muscle complex (levator resection). P...

  1. New imaging characteristics for predicting postoperative neurologic status in patients with metastatic epidural spinal cord compression. A retrospective analysis of 81 cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Mingxing; Liu, Shubin; Yang, Shaoxing; Liu, Yaosheng; Wang, Cheng; Gao, Hongjun

    2017-06-01

    Several clinical features have been proposed for the prediction of postoperative functional outcome in patients with metastatic epidural spinal cord compression (MESCC). However, few articles address the relationship between preoperative imaging characteristics and the postoperative neurologic status. This study aims to analyze the postoperative functional outcome and to identify new imaging parameters for predicting postoperative neurologic status in patients with MESCC. This study is a retrospective consecutive case series of patients with MESCC who were treated surgically. We assessed 81 consecutive patients who were treated with decompressive surgery for MESCC between 2013 and 2015. Eight imaging characteristics were analyzed for postoperative motor status by logistic regression models. Neurologic function was assessed using the Frankel grade preoperatively and postoperatively. The following imaging characteristics were assessed for postoperative motor status: location of lesions in the spine, lamina involvement, retropulsion of the posterior wall, number of vertebrae involved, pedicle involvement, fracture of any involved vertebrae, T2 signal of the spinal cord at the compression site, and circumferential angle of spinal cord compression (CASCC). The postoperative neurologic outcome was better than the preoperative neurologic status (p<.01). In the entire group, 40.7% of the patients were non-ambulatory before the surgical procedure, whereas 77.8% of the patients could walk after surgery (p=.01). In the multivariate analysis, the location of the lesions (odds ratio [OR]: 3.89, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19-12.77, p=.02) and CASCC (OR: 2.31, 95% CI: 1.44-3.71, p<.01) were significantly associated with postoperative neurologic outcome. A CASCC of more than 180° was associated with an increased OR that approached significance, and the larger the CASCC, the higher the risk of poor postoperative neurologic status. The postoperative neurologic status was

  2. Risks of postoperative paresis in motor eloquently and non-eloquently located brain metastases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obermueller, Thomas; Schaeffner, Michael; Gerhardt, Julia; Meyer, Bernhard; Ringel, Florian; Krieg, Sandro M

    2014-01-01

    When treating cerebral metastases all involved multidisciplinary oncological specialists have to cooperate closely to provide the best care for these patients. For the resection of brain metastasis several studies reported a considerable risk of new postoperative paresis. Pre- and perioperative chemotherapy (Ctx) or radiotherapy (Rtx) alter vasculature and adjacent fiber tracts on the one hand, and many patients already present with paresis prior to surgery on the other hand. As such factors were repeatedly considered risk factors for perioperative complications, we designed this study to also identify risk factors for brain metastases resection. Between 2006 and 2011, we resected 206 brain metastases consecutively, 56 in eloquent motor areas and 150 in non-eloquent ones. We evaluated the influences of preoperative paresis, previous Rtx or Ctx as well as recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) class on postoperative outcome. In general, 8.7% of all patients postoperatively developed a new permanent paresis. In contrast to preoperative Ctx, previous Rtx as a single or combined treatment strategy was a significant risk factor for postoperative motor weakness. This risk was even increased in perirolandic and rolandic lesions. Our data show significantly increased risk of new deficits for patients assigned to RPA class 3. Even in non-eloquently located brain metastases the risk of new postoperative paresis has not to be underestimated. Despite the microsurgical approach, our cohort shows a high rate of unexpected residual tumors in postoperative MRI, which supports recent data on brain metastases’ infiltrative nature but might also be the result of our strict study protocol. Surgical resection is a safe treatment of brain metastases. However, preoperative Rtx and RPA score 3 have to be taken into account when surgical resection is considered

  3. Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stonelake, Stephen; Thomson, Peter; Suggett, Nigel

    2015-09-01

    National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the 'high risk' patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk. Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) risk calculation tools. Morbidity risk scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted risk scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%. Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien-Dindo grade 2-3 (non-life-threatening). Patients having a POSSUM morbidity risk of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4-5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity risk (P = 0.01). Pre-operative risk stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality risk. Post-operative risk scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively. In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the 'high-risk' patient.

  4. Prior inpatient admission increases the risk of post-operative infection in hepatobiliary and pancreatic surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zachary M; Chidi, Alexis P; Goswami, Julie; Han, Katrina; Simmons, Richard L; Rosengart, Matthew R; Tsung, Allan

    2015-12-01

    Hepatobiliary and pancreatic (HPB) operations have a high incidence of post-operative nosocomial infections. The aim of the present study was to determine whether hospitalization up to 1 year before HPB surgery is associated with an increased risk of post-operative infection, surgical-site infection (SSI) and infection resistant to surgical chemoprophylaxis. A retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing HPB surgeries between January 2008 and June 2013 was conducted. A multivariable logistic regression model was used for controlling for potential confounders to determine the association between pre-operative admission and post-operative infection. Of the 1384 patients who met eligibility criteria, 127 (9.18%) experienced a post-operative infection. Pre-operative hospitalization was independently associated with an increased risk of a post-operative infection [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.61, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-2.46] and SSI (aOR: 1.79, 95% CI: 1.07-2.97). Pre-operative hospitalization was also associated with an increased risk of post-operative infections resistant to standard pre-operative antibiotics (OR: 2.64, 95% CI: 1.06-6.59) and an increased risk of resistant SSIs (OR: 3.99, 95% CI: 1.25-12.73). Pre-operative hospitalization is associated with an increased incidence of post-operative infections, often with organisms that are resistant to surgical chemoprophylaxis. Patients hospitalized up to 1 year before HPB surgery may benefit from extended spectrum chemoprophylaxis. © 2015 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association.

  5. Developmental dyslexia: predicting individual risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Paul A; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J

    2015-09-01

    Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited to three groups: children at family risk of dyslexia, children with concerns regarding speech, and language development at 3;06 years and controls considered to be typically developing. At 8 years, children were classified as 'dyslexic' or not. Logistic regression models were used to predict the individual risk of dyslexia and to investigate how risk factors accumulate to predict poor literacy outcomes. Family-risk status was a stronger predictor of dyslexia at 8 years than low language in preschool. Additional predictors in the preschool years include letter knowledge, phonological awareness, rapid automatized naming, and executive skills. At the time of school entry, language skills become significant predictors, and motor skills add a small but significant increase to the prediction probability. We present classification accuracy using different probability cutoffs for logistic regression models and ROC curves to highlight the accumulation of risk factors at the individual level. Dyslexia is the outcome of multiple risk factors and children with language difficulties at school entry are at high risk. Family history of dyslexia is a predictor of literacy outcome from the preschool years. However, screening does not reach an acceptable clinical level until close to school entry when letter knowledge, phonological awareness, and RAN, rather than family risk, together provide good sensitivity and specificity as a screening battery. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by

  6. Risk factors for postoperative nosocomial infections among patients ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives: The aim of this study was to identify possible risk factors for post operative nosocomial infections among operated patients at Felege Hiwot Referral ... Bacterial culture confirmation was done for all patients who developed clinical signs and symptoms of surgical site and/or bloodstream infection starting from the ...

  7. Screening for postoperative delirium in patients with acute hip fracture: Assessment of predictive factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koskderelioglu, Asli; Onder, Ozlem; Gucuyener, Melike; Altay, Taskin; Kayali, Cemil; Gedizlioglu, Muhtesem

    2017-06-01

    The aim of the present study was to estimate the incidence and risk factors of delirium during the early postoperative period after hip fracture surgery. Furthermore, we investigated the accuracy of the Confusion Assessment Method for the Intensive Care Unit (CAM-ICU) for detection and assessment of delirium in orthopedic patients. We consecutively recruited patients aged 65 years or older undergoing hip fracture surgery. The presence of delirium was determined daily by two of the authors according to the CAM-ICU criteria. A further evaluation was made with the reference standard Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders Fourth Edition criteria for delirium. Their cognitive function was evaluated with the Mini-Mental State Examination, and possible depressive mood with the Beck Depression Inventory. Baseline characteristics, as well as the American Society of Anesthesiologists classification and clinical outcomes, were analyzed for a correlation with accompanying delirium. Among 109 patients, 20 (18.3%) were diagnosed with delirium. The concurrent validity of CAM-ICU was good (kappa = 0.84). Specificity was 98.9%, and sensitivity was 80%. Multivariate regression analysis showed that Mini-Mental State Examination (P = 0.001; odds ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.65-0.86) and Beck Depression Inventory scores (P = 0.001; odds ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.22) correlated with the occurrence of delirium. The present results show that CAM-ICU is highly sensitive and specific to identify delirium in hip fracture patients in the postoperative period. Among all of the risk factors, cognitive impairment and depressive mood were strongly associated with postoperative delirium. We suggest that a preoperative assessment of cognition and depression might be useful for identifying patients with a higher risk of postoperative delirium. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 919-924. © 2016 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  8. Postoperative Nomogram Predicting the 10-Year Probability of Prostate Cancer Recurrence After Radical Prostatectomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, Andrew J.; Scardino, Peter T.; Eastham, James A.; Bianco, Fernando J.; Dotan, Zohar A.; DiBlasio, Christopher J.; Reuther, Alwyn; Klein, Eric A.; Kattan, Michael W.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose A postoperative nomogram for prostate cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy (RP) has been independently validated as accurate and discriminating. We have updated the nomogram by extending the predictions to 10 years after RP and have enabled the nomogram predictions to be adjusted for the disease-free interval that a patient has maintained after RP. Methods Cox regression analysis was used to model the clinical information for 1,881 patients who underwent RP for clinically-localized prostate cancer by two high-volume surgeons. The model was externally validated separately on two independent cohorts of 1,782 patients and 1,357 patients, respectively. Disease progression was defined as a rising prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, clinical progression, radiotherapy more than 12 months postoperatively, or initiation of systemic therapy. Results The 10-year progression-free probability for the modeling set was 79% (95% CI, 75% to 82%). Significant variables in the multivariable model included PSA (P = .002), primary (P < .0001) and secondary Gleason grade (P = .0006), extracapsular extension (P < .0001), positive surgical margins (P = .028), seminal vesicle invasion (P < .0001), lymph node involvement (P = .030), treatment year (P = .008), and adjuvant radiotherapy (P = .046). The concordance index of the nomogram when applied to the independent validation sets was 0.81 and 0.79. Conclusion We have developed and validated as a robust predictive model an enhanced postoperative nomogram for prostate cancer recurrence after RP. Unique to predictive models, the nomogram predictions can be adjusted for the disease-free interval that a patient has achieved after RP. PMID:16192588

  9. Postoperative nausea and vomiting: incidence, characteristics and risk factors--a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, C; Veiga, D; Pereira, H; Martinho, C; Abelha, F

    2013-05-01

    Postoperative nausea and vomiting are a common complication after surgery. The objective of the study was to identify risk factors, and to determine the incidence of postoperative nausea and vomiting in a cohort of patients in a tertiary university hospital. Prospective cohort study was conducted in a Post Anesthetic Care Unit during a period of 3 weeks. One hundred and fifty-seven adult patients subjected to scheduled non-cardiac and non-intracranial surgery were eligible for the study. Patient perioperative characteristics data were analyzed. The postoperative nausea and vomiting intensity scale and nausea visual analog scale were applied to measure postoperative nausea and vomiting at 6h and 24h after surgery. Descriptive analysis was performed and the Mann-Whitney U, Fisher's exact, or Chi-square tests were applied. A univariate and multivariate logistic binary regressions with calculation of odds ratio (OR) and its 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were performed. Thirty-nine (25%) patients and 54 (34%) patients had postoperative nausea and vomiting at 6h and 24h, respectively. Of the patients who experienced postoperative nausea and vomiting, 6 (15%) had clinically significant postoperative nausea and vomiting (postoperative nausea and vomiting intensity scale>50) at 6h and 9 (23%) at 24h. The majority of patients classified nausea as mild at 6h (57%) and 24h (56%). At 6h, 3 (10%) patients classified nausea as severe, and at 24h 5 (9%) patients reported the same. The median and interquartile ranges for nausea visual analog scale were 40 (20-60) at 6h and 50 (20-60) at 24h. Six patients (14%) at 6h, and 7 (18%) at 24h had a nausea visual analog scale score>75. Patients with postoperative nausea and vomiting intensity scale>50 had higher scores in the nausea visual analog scale at 6h (75 versus 30, P2 (OR 3.2, 95% CI 1.6-6.4, P=.001), previous history of postoperative nausea and vomiting (OR 2.9 95% CI 1.3-6.5, P=.009) and female patients (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1

  10. Development and Validation of a Deep Neural Network Model for Prediction of Postoperative In-hospital Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Christine K; Hofer, Ira; Gabel, Eilon; Baldi, Pierre; Cannesson, Maxime

    2018-04-17

    The authors tested the hypothesis that deep neural networks trained on intraoperative features can predict postoperative in-hospital mortality. The data used to train and validate the algorithm consists of 59,985 patients with 87 features extracted at the end of surgery. Feed-forward networks with a logistic output were trained using stochastic gradient descent with momentum. The deep neural networks were trained on 80% of the data, with 20% reserved for testing. The authors assessed improvement of the deep neural network by adding American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Physical Status Classification and robustness of the deep neural network to a reduced feature set. The networks were then compared to ASA Physical Status, logistic regression, and other published clinical scores including the Surgical Apgar, Preoperative Score to Predict Postoperative Mortality, Risk Quantification Index, and the Risk Stratification Index. In-hospital mortality in the training and test sets were 0.81% and 0.73%. The deep neural network with a reduced feature set and ASA Physical Status classification had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88 to 0.93). The highest logistic regression area under the curve was found with a reduced feature set and ASA Physical Status (0.90, 95% CI, 0.87 to 0.93). The Risk Stratification Index had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, at 0.97 (95% CI, 0.94 to 0.99). Deep neural networks can predict in-hospital mortality based on automatically extractable intraoperative data, but are not (yet) superior to existing methods.

  11. Prediction of postoperative pain by preoperative nociceptive responses to heat stimulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Werner, Mads U; Duun, Preben; Kehlet, Henrik

    2004-01-01

    , secondary hyperalgesia area, thermal and mechanical pain perception, and pain thresholds. Postoperative analgesia consisted of ibuprofen and acetaminophen. Pain ratings (visual analog scale) at rest and during limb movement were followed for 10 days after surgery. RESULTS: The burn injury was associated......BACKGROUND: Despite major advances in the understanding of the neurobiologic mechanisms of pain, the wide variation in acute pain experience has not been well explained. Therefore, the authors investigated the potential of a preoperatively induced heat injury to predict subsequent postoperative...... pain ratings in patients undergoing knee surgery. METHODS: Twenty patients were studied. The burn injury was induced 6 days before surgery with a contact thermode (12.5 cm2, 47 degrees C for 7 min). The sensory testing, before and 1 h after the injury, included pain score during induction of the burn...

  12. Identification of risk factors for postoperative dysphagia after primary anti-reflux surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuboi, Kazuto; Lee, Tommy H; Legner, András; Yano, Fumiaki; Dworak, Thomas; Mittal, Sumeet K

    2011-03-01

    Transient postoperative dysphagia is not uncommon after antireflux surgery and usually runs a self-limiting course. However, a subset of patients report long-term dysphagia. The purpose of this study was to determine the risk factors for persistent postoperative dysphagia at 1 year after surgery. All patients who underwent antireflux surgery were entered into a prospectively maintained database. After obtaining institutional review board approval, the database was queried to identify patients who underwent primary antireflux surgery and were at least 1 year from surgery. Postoperative severity of dysphagia was evaluated using a standardized questionnaire (scale 0-3). Patients with scores of 2 or 3 were defined as having significant dysphagia. A total of 316 consecutive patients underwent primary antireflux surgery by a single surgeon. Of these, 219 patients had 1 year postoperative symptom data. Significant postoperative dysphagia at 1 year was reported by 19 (9.1%) patients. Thirty-eight patients (18.3%) required postoperative dilation for dysphagia. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified preoperative dysphagia (odds ratio (OR), 4.4; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.2-15.5; p = 0.023) and preoperative delayed esophageal transit by barium swallow (OR, 8.2; 95% CI, 1.6-42.2; p = 0.012) as risk factors for postoperative dysphagia. Female gender was a risk factor for requiring dilation during the early postoperative period (OR, 3.6; 95% CI, 1.3-10.2; p = 0.016). No correlations were found with preoperative manometry. There also was no correlation between a need for early dilation and persistent dysphagia at 1 year of follow-up (p = 0.109). Patients with preoperative dysphagia and delayed esophageal transit on preoperative contrast study were significantly more likely to report moderate to severe postoperative dysphagia 1 year after antireflux surgery. This study confirms that the manometric criteria used to define esophageal dysmotility are not reliable

  13. [Risk factors of postoperative meningitis in patients with chiasm-sellar tumors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popugaev, K A; Savin, I A; Ershova, O N; Kurdyumova, N V; Tabasaransky, T F; Oshorov, A V; Kadashev, B A; Kalinin, P L; Kutin, M A

    2014-01-01

    Postoperative intracranial infectious complications are one of the most topical problems of neurosurgical intensive care due to theirs significant capability to impair outcomes of the main disease. To define the risk factors of postoperative meningitis in patients with chiasm-sellar tumors. 1. to define the effect of somatic and intracranial risk factors on occurrence of postoperative meningitis in patients after transsphenoidal and transcranial approaches to the tumor. 2. To define the effect of postoperative meningitis on outcomes of treatment in patients after transsphenoidal and transcranial approaches to the tumor. Somatic and intracranial risk factors of occurrence of postoperative meningitis (pneumonia, urinary tract infection, sepsis, intra-abdominal hypertension, the presence of external ventricular and lumbar drainage, monitoring of intracranial pressure, cerebrospinal fluid, and reoperation) were fixed every day. The study was conducted in the ICU of the Burdenko from October, 2010 to July, 2012. The 34 patients (19 males, 15 females) were included in the study (average age 47.5 years). The patients were divided into two groups; 17 patients each group. The group-1 included patients after transcranial approach to the tumor and the group-2 included patients after transsphenoidal approach. In the group-1 a meningitis occurred in 3 patients (17.6% +/- 9.2%, DI [-0.4 - 35.6]). In the group-2 a meningitis occurred in 7 patients (41.2% +/- 11.9) DI 95% [17.8 - 64.4]. Accumulation of cerebrospinal fluid under the skin flap authentically increased a risk of a meningitis occurrence in patients after transcranial approach to the tumor (p = 0.031). There was no defined statistical significance of other risk factors. But there was defined a trend of the increasing of meningitis occurrence in patients after transsphenoidal approach in case of lumbar drainage or reoperation. Duration of mechanical ventilation and ICU stay in patients with meningitis was authentically

  14. Elevated C-reactive protein and hypoalbuminemia measured before resection of colorectal liver metastases predict postoperative survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Takashi; Teruya, Masanori; Kishiki, Tomokazu; Endo, Daisuke; Takenaka, Yoshiharu; Miki, Kenji; Kobayashi, Kaoru; Morita, Koji

    2010-01-01

    Few studies have investigated whether the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), an inflammation-based prognostic score measured before resection of colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM), can predict postoperative survival. Sixty-three consecutive patients who underwent curative resection for CRLM were investigated. GPS was calculated on the basis of admission data as follows: patients with both an elevated C-reactive protein (>10 mg/l) and hypoalbuminemia (l) were allocated a GPS score of 2. Patients in whom only one of these biochemical abnormalities was present were allocated a GPS score of 1, and patients with a normal C-reactive protein and albumin were allocated a score of 0. Significant factors concerning survival were the number of liver metastases (p = 0.0044), carcinoembryonic antigen level (p = 0.0191), GPS (p = 0.0029), grade of liver metastasis (p = 0.0033), and the number of lymph node metastases around the primary cancer (p = 0.0087). Multivariate analysis showed the two independent prognostic variables: liver metastases > or =3 (relative risk 2.83) and GPS1/2 (relative risk 3.07). GPS measured before operation and the number of liver metastases may be used as novel predictors of postoperative outcomes in patients who underwent curative resection for CRLM. Copyright 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  15. Risk of post-operative complications associated with anti-TNF therapy in inflammatory bowel disease

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tauseef Ali; Laura Yun; David T Rubin

    2012-01-01

    There have been increasing concerns regarding the safety of perioperative antitumour necrosis factor (antiTNF) α agents. We performed a literature review to evaluate the postoperative complications associated with perioperative antiTNF use in patients with inflammatory bowel disease. A comprehensive review was performed with a literature search utilizing Pub Med, Cochrane, OVID and EMBASE databases according to published guidelines. To date, there are only data for infliximab. There are three published studies which have assessed postoperative complications with perioperative infliximab use in patients with Crohn's disease (CD), four studies in ulcerative colitis (UC) patients, and one study on both CD and UC patients. Two out of the three studies in CD patients showed no increased postoperative complications associated with perioperative infliximab. Two out of four studies in UC patients also did not show an increase in postoperative complications, and the combined study with CD and UC patients did not show an increased risk as well. Study differences in study designs, patient population and definition of their endpoints. There appears to be a risk of postoperative complications associated with TNF therapy in some patients. Based on these data, careful patient selection and prospective data collection should be performed.

  16. Sleep Disruption at Home As an Independent Risk Factor for Postoperative Delirium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd, Oliver M; Gelrich, Lisa; MacLullich, Alasdair M; Driessen, Martin; Thomas, Christine; Kreisel, Stefan H

    2017-05-01

    To determine whether sleep disruption at home or in hospital is an independent risk factor for postoperative delirium in older adults undergoing elective surgery. Prospective cohort study. German teaching hospital. Individuals aged 65 and older undergoing elective arthroplasty (N = 101). Preoperative questionnaires were used to assess sleep disruption at home (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index). Actigraphy was used to objectively measure sleep disruption in the hospital before and after surgery. Delirium was assessed daily after surgery using the Confusion Assessment Method and, if there was uncertainty, validated according to International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10), criteria. Twenty-seven participants developed postoperative delirium. Those with sleep disruption at home were 3.26 times as likely to develop postoperative delirium as those without (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.34-7.92, P = .009). Participants with sleep disruption in hospital were 1.21 times as likely to develop postoperative delirium as those without (95% CI = 1.03-1.41, P = .02). When adjusting for other variables, risk remained significant for sleep disruption at home (risk ratio (RR) = 3.90, 95% CI = 2.14-7.11, P delirium than those without. Sleep disruption in the hospital may further heighten this risk. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  17. Minimally traumatic stapes surgery for otosclerosis: Risk reduction of post-operative vertigo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    An-Suey Shiao

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The author (Dr. Shiao modified traditional stapes surgery (TSS specifically for patients with otosclerosis. The proposed technique, referred to as minimally traumatic stapes surgery (MTSS, reduces the risk of subjective discomfort (i.e. vertigo and tinnitus following surgery. This paper compares the effectiveness of MTSS with that of TSS. Methods: The medical records of patients with otosclerosis after stapes surgery (TSS or MTSS were analyzed. Outcome variables included post-operative vertigo, tinnitus, and hearing success. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the correlation between surgical technique and outcome variables. Results: TSS was performed in 23 otosclerosis ears and MTSS was performed in 33 otosclerosis ears. The risk of post-operative vertigo was significantly lower among patients that underwent MTSS (27% than among those that underwent TSS (83%, p < 0.001. No differences in the incidence of tinnitus were observed between the two groups. Post-operative audiometric outcomes were also equivalent between the two groups. However, multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a correlation between post-operative vertigo and surgical technique (p < 0.001. Conclusion: MTSS involves a lower risk of vertigo than does TSS. MTSS helps to prevent damage to the footplate, thereby reducing the risk of footplate floating. Therefore, MTSS provides a means to overcome some of the limitations associated with the narrow surgical field in Asian patients. Keywords: Footplate floating, Minimally traumatic, Otosclerosis, Stapes surgery, Vertigo

  18. Age and other perioperative risk factors for postoperative systemic inflammatory response syndrome after cardiac surgery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dieleman, J. M.; Peelen, L. M.; Coulson, T. G.; Tran, L.; Reid, C. M.; Smith, Jennifer A.; Myles, P. S.; Pilcher, C.D.

    2017-01-01

    Background The inflammatory response to surgery varies considerably between individual patients. Age might be a substantial factor in this variability. Our objective was to examine the association of patient age and other potential risk factors with the occurrence of a postoperative systemic

  19. Post-operative high dose rate brachytherapy in patients with low to intermediate risk endometrial cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pearcey, R.G.; Petereit, D.G.

    2000-01-01

    This paper investigates the outcome using different dose/fractionation schedules in high dose rate (HDR) post-operative vaginal vault radiotherapy in patients with low to intermediate risk endometrial cancer. The world literature was reviewed and thirteen series were analyzed representing 1800 cases. A total of 12 vaginal vault recurrences were identified representing an overall vaginal control rate of 99.3%. A wide range of dose fractionation schedules and techniques have been reported. In order to analyze a dose response relationship for tumor control and complications, the biologically effective doses to the tumor and late responding tissues were calculated using the linear quadratic model. A threshold was identified for complications, but not vaginal control. While dose fractionation schedules that delivered a biologically effective dose to the late responding tissues in excess of 100 Gy 3 (LQED = 60 Gy) predicted for late complications, dose fractionation schedules that delivered a modest dose to the vaginal surface (50 Gy 10 or LQED = 30 Gy) appeared tumoricidal with vaginal control rates of at least 98%. By using convenient, modest dose fractionation schedules, HDR vaginal vault - brachytherapy yields very high local control and extremely low morbidity rates. (author)

  20. Simplified prediction of postoperative cardiac surgery outcomes with a novel score: R2CHADS2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peguero, Julio G; Lo Presti, Saberio; Issa, Omar; Podesta, Carlos; Parise, Helen; Layka, Ayman; Brenes, Juan C; Lamelas, Joseph; Lamas, Gervasio A

    2016-07-01

    To compare the accuracy of R2CHADS2, CHADS2, and CHA2DS2-VASc scores vs the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score as predictors of morbidity and mortality after cardiovascular surgery. All patients who underwent cardiothoracic surgery at our institution from January 2008 to July 2013 were analyzed. Only those patients who fulfilled the criteria for STS score calculation were included. The R2CHADS2 score was computed as follows: 2 points for GFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) (R2), prior stroke or TIA (S2); 1 point for history of congestive heart failure (C), hypertension (H), age ≥75 years (A), or diabetes (D). Area under the curve (AUC) analysis was used to estimate the accuracy of the different scores. The end point variables included operative mortality, permanent stroke, and renal failure as defined by the STS database system. Of the 3,492 patients screened, 2,263 met the inclusion criteria. These included 1,160 (51%) isolated valve surgery, 859 (38%) coronary artery bypass graft surgery, and 245 (11%) combined procedures. There were 147 postoperative events: 75 (3%) patients had postoperative renal failure, 48 (2%) had operative mortality, and 24 (1%) had permanent stroke. AUC analysis revealed that STS, R2CHADS2, CHADS2, and CHA2DS2-VASc reliably estimated all postoperative outcomes. STS and R2CHADS2 scores had the best accuracy overall, with no significant difference in AUC values between them. The R2CHADS2 score estimates postoperative events with acceptable accuracy and if further validated may be used as a simple preoperative risk tool calculator. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Functional imaging of semantic memory predicts postoperative episodic memory functions in chronic temporal lobe epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köylü, Bülent; Walser, Gerald; Ischebeck, Anja; Ortler, Martin; Benke, Thomas

    2008-08-05

    Medial temporal (MTL) structures have crucial functions in episodic (EM), but also in semantic memory (SM) processing. Preoperative functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) activity within the MTL is increasingly used to predict post-surgical memory capacities. Based on the hypothesis that EM and SM memory functions are both hosted by the MTL the present study wanted to explore the relationship between SM related activations in the MTL as assessed before and the capacity of EM functions after surgery. Patients with chronic unilateral left (n=14) and right (n=12) temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) performed a standard word list learning test pre- and postoperatively, and a fMRI procedure before the operation using a semantic decision task. SM processing caused significant bilateral MTL activations in both patient groups. While right TLE patients showed asymmetry of fMRI activation with more activation in the left MTL, left TLE patients had almost equal activation in both MTL regions. Contrasting left TLE versus right TLE patients revealed greater activity within the right MTL, whereas no significant difference was observed for the reverse contrast. Greater effect size in the MTL region ipsilateral to the seizure focus was significantly and positively correlated with preoperative EM abilities. Greater effect size in the contralateral MTL was correlated with better postoperative verbal EM, especially in left TLE patients. These results suggest that functional imaging of SM tasks may be useful to predict postoperative verbal memory in TLE. They also advocate a common neuroanatomical basis for SM and EM processes in the MTL.

  2. Balancing Model Performance and Simplicity to Predict Postoperative Primary Care Blood Pressure Elevation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schonberger, Robert B; Dai, Feng; Brandt, Cynthia A; Burg, Matthew M

    2015-09-01

    Because of uncertainty regarding the reliability of perioperative blood pressures and traditional notions downplaying the role of anesthesiologists in longitudinal patient care, there is no consensus for anesthesiologists to recommend postoperative primary care blood pressure follow-up for patients presenting for surgery with an increased blood pressure. The decision of whom to refer should ideally be based on a predictive model that balances performance with ease-of-use. If an acceptable decision rule was developed, a new practice paradigm integrating the surgical encounter into broader public health efforts could be tested, with the goal of reducing long-term morbidity from hypertension among surgical patients. Using national data from US veterans receiving surgical care, we determined the prevalence of poorly controlled outpatient clinic blood pressures ≥140/90 mm Hg, based on the mean of up to 4 readings in the year after surgery. Four increasingly complex logistic regression models were assessed to predict this outcome. The first included the mean of 2 preoperative blood pressure readings; other models progressively added a broad array of demographic and clinical data. After internal validation, the C-statistics and the Net Reclassification Index between the simplest and most complex models were assessed. The performance characteristics of several simple blood pressure referral thresholds were then calculated. Among 215,621 patients, poorly controlled outpatient clinic blood pressure was present postoperatively in 25.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25.5%-25.9%) including 14.2% (95% CI, 13.9%-14.6%) of patients lacking a hypertension history. The most complex prediction model demonstrated statistically significant, but clinically marginal, improvement in discrimination over a model based on preoperative blood pressure alone (C-statistic, 0.736 [95% CI, 0.734-0.739] vs 0.721 [95% CI, 0.718-0.723]; P for difference 1 of 4 patients (95% CI, 25

  3. Transient post-operative atrial fibrillation predicts short and long term adverse events following CABG

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Matthew; Galla, John; Blackstone, Eugene; Kapadia, Samir R.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To assess the relationship between the development of transient post-operative atrial fibrillation (TPOAF) following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and risk of long-term mortality. Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) following CABG is common and associated with increased morbidity and mortality in the perioperative period. However the impact of TPOAF and its management on long-term morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing first time, isolated CABG surgery remains unclear. Methods The Cleveland Clinic Cardiovascular Information Registry was used to identify 5,205 consecutive patients who underwent CABG between January 1993 and December 2005. Patients with TPOAF (n=1,490) were compared to those without post-operative AF (n=3,645) for the endpoints of death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke at 1 year. Results Overall rates of 1-year mortality, MI and stroke were 3.7%, 0.8%, and 2.6%, respectively. Patients with TPOAF had an increased risk of death at 1 year as compared to patients without POAF (6.4% vs. 2.7%; P<0.001), but there was not an increased risk of stroke or MI. Multivariate analysis identified TPOAF as an independent predictor of death at 1 year (HR 1.89, 95% CI, 1.42-2.53; P<0.001). After propensity matching, patients who developed TPOAF experienced a significantly increased risk of death compared with those without TPOAF (HR 1.96, 95% CI, 1.34-2.86; P<0.001). Conclusions In patients undergoing first time, isolated CABG, the presence of TPOAF identifies a subgroup of patients at increased risk for all-cause mortality. Future prospective studies to determine potential beneficial interventions in this large population are warranted. PMID:25414823

  4. The interrelationship between preoperative anemia and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide: the effect on predicting postoperative cardiac outcome in vascular surgery patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goei, Dustin; Flu, Willem-Jan; Hoeks, Sanne E; Galal, Wael; Dunkelgrun, Martin; Boersma, Eric; Kuijper, Ruud; van Kuijk, Jan-Peter; Winkel, Tamara A; Schouten, Olaf; Bax, Jeroen J; Poldermans, Don

    2009-11-01

    N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) predicts adverse cardiac outcome in patients undergoing vascular surgery. However, several conditions might influence this prognostic value, including anemia. In this study, we evaluated whether anemia confounds the prognostic value of NT-proBNP for predicting cardiac events in patients undergoing vascular surgery. A detailed cardiac history, resting echocardiography, and hemoglobin and NT-proBNP levels were obtained in 666 patients before vascular surgery. Anemia was defined as serum hemoglobin value of NT-proBNP for the prediction of the composite end point. Multivariable regression analysis was used to assess the additional value of NT-proBNP for the prediction of postoperative cardiac events in nonanemic and anemic patients. Anemia was present in 206 patients (31%) before surgery. Hemoglobin level was inversely related with the NT-proBNP levels (beta coefficient = -2.242; P = 0.025). The optimal predictive cutoff value of NT-proBNP for predicting the composite cardiovascular outcome was 350 pg/mL. After adjustment for clinical cardiac risk factors, both anemia (odds ratio [OR] 1.53; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07-2.99) and increased levels of NT-proBNP (OR 4.09; 95% CI: 2.19-7.64) remained independent predictors for postoperative cardiac events. However, increased levels of NT-proBNP were not predictive for the risk of adverse cardiac events in the subgroup of anemic patients (OR 2.16; 95% CI: 0.90-5.21). Both anemia and NT-proBNP are independently associated with an increased risk for postoperative cardiac events in patients undergoing vascular surgery. NT-proBNP has less predictive value in anemic patients.

  5. Preoperative Electrocardiogram Score for Predicting New-Onset Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Patients Undergoing Cardiac Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Jiwei; Andreasen, Jan J; Melgaard, Jacob; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Hansen, John; Schmidt, Erik B; Thorsteinsson, Kristinn; Graff, Claus

    2017-02-01

    To investigate if electrocardiogram (ECG) markers from routine preoperative ECGs can be used in combination with clinical data to predict new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) following cardiac surgery. Retrospective observational case-control study. Single-center university hospital. One hundred consecutive adult patients (50 POAF, 50 without POAF) who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting, valve surgery, or combinations. Retrospective review of medical records and registration of POAF. Clinical data and demographics were retrieved from the Western Denmark Heart Registry and patient records. Paper tracings of preoperative ECGs were collected from patient records, and ECG measurements were read by two independent readers blinded to outcome. A subset of four clinical variables (age, gender, body mass index, and type of surgery) were selected to form a multivariate clinical prediction model for POAF and five ECG variables (QRS duration, PR interval, P-wave duration, left atrial enlargement, and left ventricular hypertrophy) were used in a multivariate ECG model. Adding ECG variables to the clinical prediction model significantly improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from 0.54 to 0.67 (with cross-validation). The best predictive model for POAF was a combined clinical and ECG model with the following four variables: age, PR-interval, QRS duration, and left atrial enlargement. ECG markers obtained from a routine preoperative ECG may be helpful in predicting new-onset POAF in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Risk Factors for the Postoperative Recurrence of Instability After Arthroscopic Bankart Repair in Athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagawa, Shigeto; Mae, Tatsuo; Sato, Seira; Okimura, Shinichiro; Kuroda, Miki

    2017-09-01

    Several risk factors for the postoperative recurrence of instability after arthroscopic Bankart repair have been reported, but there have been few detailed investigations of the specific risk factors in relation to the type of sport. This study investigated the postoperative recurrence of instability after arthroscopic Bankart repair without additional reinforcement procedures in competitive athletes, including athletes with a large glenoid defect. The purpose of this study was to investigate risk factors related to the postoperative recurrence of instability in athletes. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. A total of 115 athletes (123 shoulders) were classified into 5 groups according to type of sport: rugby (41 shoulders), American football (32 shoulders), other collision sports (18 shoulders), contact sports (15 shoulders), and overhead sports (17 shoulders). First, the recurrence rate in each sporting category was investigated, with 113 shoulders followed up for a minimum of 2 years. Then, factors related to postoperative recurrence were investigated in relation to the type of sport. Postoperative recurrence of instability was noted in 23 of 113 shoulders (20.4%). The recurrence rate was 33.3% in rugby, 17.2% in American football, 11.1% in other collision sports, 14.3% in contact sports, and 12.5% in overhead sports. The most frequent cause of recurrence was tackling, and recurrence occurred with tackling in 12 of 16 athletes playing rugby or American football. Reoperation was completed in 11 shoulders. By univariate analysis, significant risk factors for postoperative recurrence of instability included playing rugby, age between 10 and 19 years at surgery, preoperative glenoid defect, small bone fragment of bony Bankart lesion, and capsular tear. However, by multivariate analysis, the most significant factor was not the type of sport but younger age at operation and a preoperative glenoid defect with small or no bone fragment. Compared with the other

  7. Poor Performance on a Preoperative Cognitive Screening Test Predicts Postoperative Complications in Older Orthopedic Surgical Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culley, Deborah J; Flaherty, Devon; Fahey, Margaret C; Rudolph, James L; Javedan, Houman; Huang, Chuan-Chin; Wright, John; Bader, Angela M; Hyman, Bradley T; Blacker, Deborah; Crosby, Gregory

    2017-11-01

    The American College of Surgeons and the American Geriatrics Society have suggested that preoperative cognitive screening should be performed in older surgical patients. We hypothesized that unrecognized cognitive impairment in patients without a history of dementia is a risk factor for development of postoperative complications. We enrolled 211 patients 65 yr of age or older without a diagnosis of dementia who were scheduled for an elective hip or knee replacement. Patients were cognitively screened preoperatively using the Mini-Cog and demographic, medical, functional, and emotional/social data were gathered using standard instruments or review of the medical record. Outcomes included discharge to place other than home (primary outcome), delirium, in-hospital medical complications, hospital length-of-stay, 30-day emergency room visits, and mortality. Data were analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses. Fifty of 211 (24%) patients screened positive for probable cognitive impairment (Mini-Cog less than or equal to 2). On age-adjusted multivariate analysis, patients with a Mini-Cog score less than or equal to 2 were more likely to be discharged to a place other than home (67% vs. 34%; odds ratio = 3.88, 95% CI = 1.58 to 9.55), develop postoperative delirium (21% vs. 7%; odds ratio = 4.52, 95% CI = 1.30 to 15.68), and have a longer hospital length of stay (hazard ratio = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.42 to 0.95) compared to those with a Mini-Cog score greater than 2. Many older elective orthopedic surgical patients have probable cognitive impairment preoperatively. Such impairment is associated with development of delirium postoperatively, a longer hospital stay, and lower likelihood of going home upon hospital discharge.

  8. P-wave characteristics on routine preoperative electrocardiogram improve prediction of new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation in cardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Jim K; Lobato, Robert L; Pinesett, Andre; Maxwell, Bryan G; Mora-Mangano, Christina T; Perez, Marco V

    2014-12-01

    To test the hypothesis that including preoperative electrocardiogram (ECG) characteristics with clinical variables significantly improves the new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation prediction model. Retrospective analysis. Single-center university hospital. Five hundred twenty-six patients, ≥ 18 years of age, who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting, aortic valve replacement, mitral valve replacement/repair, or a combination of valve surgery and coronary artery bypass grafting requiring cardiopulmonary bypass. Retrospective review of medical records. Baseline characteristics and cardiopulmonary bypass times were collected. Digitally-measured timing and voltages from preoperative electrocardiograms were extracted. Postoperative atrial fibrillation was defined as atrial fibrillation requiring therapeutic intervention. Two hundred eight (39.5%) patients developed postoperative atrial fibrillation. Clinical predictors were age, ejection fractionelectrocardiogram variables to the prediction model with only clinical predictors significantly improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, from 0.71 to 0.78 (p<0.01). Overall net reclassification improvement was 0.059 (p = 0.09). Among those who developed postoperative atrial fibrillation, the net reclassification improvement was 0.063 (p = 0.03). Several p-wave characteristics are independently associated with postoperative atrial fibrillation. Addition of these parameters improves the postoperative atrial fibrillation prediction model. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Immediate Postoperative Pain Scores Predict Neck Pain Profile up to 1 Year Following Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adogwa, Owoicho; Elsamadicy, Aladine A; Vuong, Victoria D; Mehta, Ankit I; Vasquez, Raul A; Cheng, Joseph; Bagley, Carlos A; Karikari, Isaac O

    2018-05-01

    Retrospective cohort review. To assess whether immediate postoperative neck pain scores accurately predict 12-month visual analog scale-neck pain (VAS-NP) outcomes following Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion surgery (ACDF). This was a retrospective study of 82 patients undergoing elective ACDF surgery at a major academic medical center. Patient reported outcomes measures VAS-NP scores were recorded on the first postoperative day, then at 6-weeks, 3, 6, and 12-months after surgery. Multivariate correlation and logistic regression methods were utilized to determine whether immediate postoperative VAS-NP score accurately predicted 1-year patient reported VAS-NP Scores. Overall, 46.3% male, 25.6% were smokers, and the mean age and body mass index (BMI) were 53.7 years and 28.28 kg/m 2 , respectively. There were significant correlations between immediate postoperative pain scores and neck pain scores at 6 weeks VAS-NP ( P = .0015), 6 months VAS-NP ( P = .0333), and 12 months VAS-NP ( P = .0247) after surgery. Furthermore, immediate postoperative pain score is an independent predictor of 6 weeks, 6 months, and 1 year VAS-NP scores. Our study suggests that immediate postoperative patient reported neck pain scores accurately predicts and correlates with 12-month VAS-NP scores after an ACDF procedure. Patients with high neck pain scores after surgery are more likely to report persistent neck pain 12 months after index surgery.

  10. Risk factors for postoperative urinary tract infection following midurethral sling procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doganay, Melike; Cavkaytar, Sabri; Kokanali, Mahmut Kuntay; Ozer, Irfan; Aksakal, Orhan Seyfi; Erkaya, Salim

    2017-04-01

    To identify the potential risk factors for urinary tract infections following midurethral sling procedures. 556 women who underwent midurethral sling procedure due to stress urinary incontinence over a four-year period were reviewed in this retrospective study. Of the study population, 280 women underwent TVT procedures and 276 women underwent TOT procedures. Patients were evaluated at 4-8 weeks postoperatively and were investigated for the occurrence of a urinary tract infection. Patients who experienced urinary tract infection were defined as cases, and patients who didn't were defined as controls. All data were collected from medical records. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify the risk factors for urinary tract infection. Of 556 women, 58 (10.4%) were defined as cases while 498 (89.6%) were controls. The mean age of women in cases (57.8±12.9years) was significantly greater than in controls (51.8±11.2years) (purinary tract infection, concomitant vaginal hysterectomy and cystocele repair, TVT procedure and postoperative postvoiding residual bladder volume ≥100ml were more common in cases than in controls. However, in multivariate regression analysis model presence of preoperative urinary tract infection [OR (95% CI)=0.1 (0.1-0.7); p=0.013], TVT procedure [OR (95% CI)=8.4 (3.1-22.3); p=0.000] and postoperative postvoiding residual bladder volume ≥100ml [OR (95% CI)=4.6 (1.1-19.2); p=0.036] were significant independent risk factors for urinary tract infection following midurethral slings CONCLUSION: Urinary tract infection after midurethral sling procedures is a relatively common complication. The presence of preoperative urinary tract infection, TVT procedure and postoperative postvoiding residual bladder volume ≥100ml may increase the risk of this complication. Identification of these factors could help surgeons to minimize this complicationby developing effective strategies. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  11. Incidence of and risk factors for postoperative urinary retention in fast-track total hip and knee arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Lars; Bogø, Stina; Raaschou, Sofie

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Postoperative urinary retention (POUR) is a clinical challenge, but there is no scientific evidence for treatment principles. We describe the incidence of and predictive factors for POUR in fast-track total hip (THA) and knee arthroplasty (TKA). PATIENTS AND METHODS......, and preoperative international prostate symptom score (IPSS) were compared between catheterized and non-catheterized patients. RESULTS: The incidence of POUR was 40% (range between departments: 30-55%). Median bladder volume evacuated by catheterization was 0.6 (0.1-1.9) L. Spinal anesthesia increased the risk...... was 40%, with spinal anesthesia and increased IPSS in males as predictive factors. The large variation in perioperative bladder management and in bladder volumes evacuated by catheterization calls for randomized studies to define evidence-based principles for treatment of POUR in the future....

  12. Risk stratification for avascular necrosis of the femoral head after internal fixation of femoral neck fractures by post-operative SPECT/CT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Sang Won; Oh, Min Young; Yoon, Seok Ho; Kim, Jin Soo; Chang, Jae Suk; Ryu, Jin Sook [Asan Medical CenterUniversity of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Ji Wan [Dept. of Orthopedic Surgery, Haeundae Paik Hospital, Inje University, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-03-15

    Avascular necrosis (AVN) of the femoral head is a major complication after internal fixation of a femoral neck fracture and determines the functional prognosis. We investigated postoperative bone single-photon emission computed tomography/computed tomography (SPECT/CT) for assessing the risk of femoral head AVN. We retrospectively reviewed 53 consecutive patients who underwent bone SPECT/CT within 2 weeks of internal fixation of a femoral neck fracture and follow-up serial hip radiographs over at least 12 months. Nine patients developed femoral head AVN. In 15 patients who showed normal uptake on immediate postoperative SPECT/CT, no AVN occurred, whereas 9 of 38 patients who showed cold defects of the femoral head later developed AVN. The negative predictive value of immediate postoperative SPECT/CT for AVN was 100 %, whereas the positive predictive value was 24 %. Among 38 patients with cold defects, 1 developed AVN 3 months postoperatively. A follow-up bone SPECT/CT was performed in the other 37 patients at 2–10 months postoperatively. The follow-up bone SPECT/CT revealed completely normalized femoral head uptake in 27, partially normalized uptake in 8, and persistent cold defects in 2 patients. AVN developed in 3.7 % (1/27), 62.5 % (5/8), and 100 % (2/2) of each group, respectively. According to the time point of imaging, radiotracer uptake patterns of the femoral head on postoperative bone SPECT/CT indicate the risk of AVN after internal fixation of femoral neck fractures differently. Postoperative bone SPECT/CT may help orthopedic surgeons determine the appropriate follow-up of these patients.

  13. Risk stratification for avascular necrosis of the femoral head after internal fixation of femoral neck fractures by post-operative SPECT/CT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Sang Won; Oh, Min Young; Yoon, Seok Ho; Kim, Jin Soo; Chang, Jae Suk; Ryu, Jin Sook; Kim, Ji Wan

    2017-01-01

    Avascular necrosis (AVN) of the femoral head is a major complication after internal fixation of a femoral neck fracture and determines the functional prognosis. We investigated postoperative bone single-photon emission computed tomography/computed tomography (SPECT/CT) for assessing the risk of femoral head AVN. We retrospectively reviewed 53 consecutive patients who underwent bone SPECT/CT within 2 weeks of internal fixation of a femoral neck fracture and follow-up serial hip radiographs over at least 12 months. Nine patients developed femoral head AVN. In 15 patients who showed normal uptake on immediate postoperative SPECT/CT, no AVN occurred, whereas 9 of 38 patients who showed cold defects of the femoral head later developed AVN. The negative predictive value of immediate postoperative SPECT/CT for AVN was 100 %, whereas the positive predictive value was 24 %. Among 38 patients with cold defects, 1 developed AVN 3 months postoperatively. A follow-up bone SPECT/CT was performed in the other 37 patients at 2–10 months postoperatively. The follow-up bone SPECT/CT revealed completely normalized femoral head uptake in 27, partially normalized uptake in 8, and persistent cold defects in 2 patients. AVN developed in 3.7 % (1/27), 62.5 % (5/8), and 100 % (2/2) of each group, respectively. According to the time point of imaging, radiotracer uptake patterns of the femoral head on postoperative bone SPECT/CT indicate the risk of AVN after internal fixation of femoral neck fractures differently. Postoperative bone SPECT/CT may help orthopedic surgeons determine the appropriate follow-up of these patients

  14. Postoperative persistent chronic pain: what do we know about prevention, risk factors, and treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Durval Campos Kraychete

    Full Text Available Abstract Background and objectives: Postoperative persistent chronic pain (POCP is a serious health problem, disabling, undermining the quality of life of affected patients. Although more studies and research have addressed the possible mechanisms of the evolution from acute pain to chronic postoperatively, there are still no consistent data about the risk factors and prevention. This article aims to bring what is in the panorama of the current literature available. Content: This review describes the definition, risk factors, and mechanisms of POCD, its prevention and treatment. The main drugs and techniques are exposed comprehensively. Conclusion: Postoperative persistent chronic pain is a complex and still unclear etiology entity, which interferes heavily in the life of the subject. Neuropathic pain resulting from surgical trauma is still the most common expression of this entity. Techniques to prevent nerve injury are recommended and should be used whenever possible. Despite efforts to understand and select risk patients, the management and prevention of this syndrome remain challenging and inappropriate.

  15. Can Preoperative Peak Expiratory Flow Predict Postoperative Pulmonary Complications in Lung Cancer Patients Undergoing Lobectomy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun ZHOU

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective Postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs, especially postoperative pneumonia (POP, directly affect the rapid recovery of lung cancer patients after surgery. Peak expiratory flow (PEF can reflect airway patency and cough efficiency. Moreover, cough impairment may lead to accumulation of pulmonary secretions which can increase the risk of PPCs. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of preoperative PEF on PPCs in patients with lung cancer. Methods Retrospective research was conducted on 433 lung cancer patients who underwent lobectomy at the West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2014 to December 2015. The associations between preoperative PEF and PPCs were analyzed based on patients’ basic characteristics and clinical data in hospital. Results Preoperative PEF value in PPCs group (280.93±88.99 L/min was significantly lower than that in non-PPCs group (358.38±93.69 L/min (P320 L/min group (9.4%(P<0.001. Conclusion Preoperative PEF and PPCs are correlated, and PEF may be used as a predictor of PPCs.

  16. The predictive value of preoperative {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose PET for postoperative recurrence in patients with localized primary gastrointestinal stromal tumour

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miyake, Kanae Kawai; Nakamoto, Yuji; Togashi, Kaori [Kyoto University Hospital, Department of Diagnostic Imaging and Nuclear Medicine, Kyoto (Japan); Mikami, Yoshiki [Kyoto University Hospital, Department of Diagnostic Pathology, Kyoto (Japan); Kumamoto University Hospital, Department of Diagnostic Pathology, Kumamoto (Japan); Tanaka, Shiro [Kyoto University, Department of Pharmacoepidemiology, Graduate School of Medicine and Public Health, Kyoto (Japan); Higashi, Tatsuya [Shiga Medical Center Research Institute, Shiga (Japan); Tadamura, Eiji [Sakazaki Clinic, Department of Radiology, Kyoto (Japan); Saga, Tsuneo [National Institute of Radiological Sciences, Dianostic Imaging Group, Molecular Imaging Center, Chiba (Japan); Minami, Shunsuke [Shiga Medical Center for Adults, Department of Radiology, Shiga (Japan)

    2016-12-15

    To assess the potential value of preoperative {sup 18}F-FDG PET to predict postoperative recurrence of solitary localized primary gastrointestinal stromal tumour (GIST) after radical resection. A total of 46 patients with primary GIST who received preoperative {sup 18}F-FDG PET and underwent complete resection without neoadjuvant therapy were retrospectively studied. PET findings, including ring-shaped uptake and intense uptake, were compared with Joensuu risk grades using Fisher's exact test. The prognostic value of the preoperative clinico-imaging variables - age ≥60 years, male, ring-shaped uptake, intense uptake, tumour size >5 cm, heterogeneous CT attenuation and lower gastrointestinal origin - and Joensuu high risk for recurrence-free survival was evaluated using log-rank test and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Ring-shaped uptake and intense uptake were significantly associated with Joensuu high risk. Univariate analysis showed that ring-shaped uptake, intense uptake, size >5 cm and Joensuu high risk were significantly associated with inferior recurrence-free survival. Multivariate analysis showed that ring-shaped uptake (P = 0.004) and Joensuu high risk (P = 0.021) were independent adverse prognostic factors of postoperative recurrence. Ring-shaped uptake on preoperative {sup 18}F-FDG PET may be a potential predictor of postoperative tumour recurrence of localized primary GISTs. (orig.)

  17. Postoperative rhabdomyolysis following robotic renal and adrenal surgery: a cautionary tale of compounding risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, Russell S; Gerke, Travis; Mason, James B; Sorensen, Matthew D; Joseph, Jason P; Dahm, Philipp; Su, Li-Ming

    2015-09-01

    This study aimed at reviewing a contemporary series of patients who underwent robotic renal and adrenal surgery by a single surgeon at a tertiary referral academic medical center over a 6-year period, specifically focusing on the unique and serious complication of post-operative rhabdomyolysis of the dependent lower extremity. The cases of 315 consecutive patients who underwent robotic upper tract surgery over a 6-year period from August 2008 to June 2014 using a standardized patient positioning were reviewed and analyzed for patient characteristics and surgical variables that may be associated with the development of post-operative rhabdomyolysis. The incidence of post-operative rhabdomyolysis in our series was 3/315 (0.95%). All three affected patients had undergone robotic nephroureterectomy. Those patients who developed rhabdomyolysis had significantly higher mean Body Mass Index, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and median length of stay than those who did not. The mean OR time in the rhabdomyolysis group was noted to be 52 min longer than the non-rhabdomyolysis group, though this value did not reach statistical significance. Given the trends of increasing obesity in the United States and abroad as well as the continued rise in robotic upper tract urologic surgeries, urologists need to be increasingly vigilant for recognizing the risk factors and early treatment of the unique complication of post-operative rhabdomyolysis.

  18. Preoperative dehydration increases risk of postoperative acute renal failure in colon and rectal surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghadamyeghaneh, Zhobin; Phelan, Michael J; Carmichael, Joseph C; Mills, Steven D; Pigazzi, Alessio; Nguyen, Ninh T; Stamos, Michael J

    2014-12-01

    There is limited data regarding the effects of preoperative dehydration on postoperative renal function. We sought to identify associations between hydration status before operation and postoperative acute renal failure (ARF) in patients undergoing colorectal resection. The NSQIP database was used to examine the data of patients undergoing colorectal resection from 2005 to 2011. We used preoperative blood urea nitrogen (BUN)/creatinine ratio >20 as a marker of relative dehydration. Multivariate analysis using logistic regression was performed to quantify the association of BUN/Cr ratio with ARF. We sampled 27,860 patients who underwent colorectal resection. Patients with dehydration had higher risk of ARF compared to patients with BUN/Cr Dehydration was associated with an increase in mortality of the affected patients (AOR, 2.19; P dehydrated patients. Open colorectal procedures (AOR, 2.67; P = 0.01) and total colectomy procedure (AOR, 1.62; P Dehydration before operation is a common condition in colorectal surgery (incidence of 27.7 %). Preoperative dehydration is associated with increased rates of postoperative ARF, MI, and cardiac arrest. Hydrotherapy of patients with dehydration may decrease postoperative complications in colorectal surgery.

  19. Serum Albumin Predicts Survival and Postoperative Course Following Surgery for Geriatric Hip Fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohl, Daniel D; Shen, Mary R; Hannon, Charles P; Fillingham, Yale A; Darrith, Brian; Della Valle, Craig J

    2017-12-20

    Serum albumin level is the most well-established serum marker of malnutrition, with a serum albumin concentration malnutrition. The purpose of this study was to test if serum albumin level is associated with death, specific postoperative complications (e.g., pneumonia), length of hospital stay, and readmission following a surgical procedure for geriatric hip fracture. A retrospective cohort study of geriatric patients (≥65 years of age) undergoing a hip fracture surgical procedure as part of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was conducted. Outcomes were compared between patients with and without hypoalbuminemia. All comparisons were adjusted for baseline and procedural differences between populations, and patients with missing serum albumin concentration were included in analyses using a missing data indicator. There were 29,377 geriatric patients undergoing a hip fracture surgical procedure who met inclusion criteria; of these patients, 17,651 (60.1%) had serum albumin available for analysis. The prevalence of hypoalbuminemia was 45.9%. Following adjustment for baseline and procedural characteristics, the risk of death was inversely associated with serum albumin concentration as a continuous variable (adjusted relative risk, 0.59 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.53 to 0.65]; p patients with normal albumin concentration, patients with hypoalbuminemia had higher rates of death (9.94% compared with 5.53% [adjusted relative risk, 1.52 (95% CI, 1.37 to 1.70); p patients with hypoalbuminemia at 5.67 ± 4.68 days compared with those without hypoalbuminemia at 4.99 ± 3.95 days; the adjusted difference was 0.50 day (95% CI, 0.38 to 0.63 day; p patients with hypoalbuminemia (10.91%) and those without hypoalbuminemia (9.03%); the adjusted relative risk was 1.10 (95% CI, 1.00 to 1.21). Hypoalbuminemia is a powerful independent risk factor for mortality following a surgical procedure for geriatric hip fracture. These data suggest

  20. Clinical value of CT-based preoperative software assisted lung lobe volumetry for predicting postoperative pulmonary function after lung surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wormanns, Dag; Beyer, Florian; Hoffknecht, Petra; Dicken, Volker; Kuhnigk, Jan-Martin; Lange, Tobias; Thomas, Michael; Heindel, Walter

    2005-04-01

    This study was aimed to evaluate a morphology-based approach for prediction of postoperative forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) after lung resection from preoperative CT scans. Fifteen Patients with surgically treated (lobectomy or pneumonectomy) bronchogenic carcinoma were enrolled in the study. A preoperative chest CT and pulmonary function tests before and after surgery were performed. CT scans were analyzed by prototype software: automated segmentation and volumetry of lung lobes was performed with minimal user interaction. Determined volumes of different lung lobes were used to predict postoperative FEV1 as percentage of the preoperative values. Predicted FEV1 values were compared to the observed postoperative values as standard of reference. Patients underwent lobectomy in twelve cases (6 upper lobes; 1 middle lobe; 5 lower lobes; 6 right side; 6 left side) and pneumonectomy in three cases. Automated calculation of predicted postoperative lung function was successful in all cases. Predicted FEV1 ranged from 54% to 95% (mean 75% +/- 11%) of the preoperative values. Two cases with obviously erroneous LFT were excluded from analysis. Mean error of predicted FEV1 was 20 +/- 160 ml, indicating absence of systematic error; mean absolute error was 7.4 +/- 3.3% respective 137 +/- 77 ml/s. The 200 ml reproducibility criterion for FEV1 was met in 11 of 13 cases (85%). In conclusion, software-assisted prediction of postoperative lung function yielded a clinically acceptable agreement with the observed postoperative values. This method might add useful information for evaluation of functional operability of patients with lung cancer.

  1. Early-postoperative magnetic resonance imaging in glial tumors: prediction of tumor regrowth and recurrence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekinci, Gazanfer; Akpinar, Ihsan N. E-mail: i.akpinar@mailcity.com; Baltacioglu, Feyyaz; Erzen, Canan; Kilic, Tuerker; Elmaci, Ilhan; Pamir, Necmettin

    2003-02-01

    Objective: This study investigated the value of early-postoperative magnetic resonance (EPMR) imaging in the detection of residual glial tumor and investigated the role of EPMR for the prediction of tumor regrowth and recurrence. Methods and materials: We retrospectively analyzed pre- and post-operative magnetic resonance imaging results from 50 adult patients who underwent surgical treatment for supratentorial glial tumor. There were glioblastoma multiforme in 25 patients, astrocytoma (grades II and III) in 11 patients, oligodendroglioma (grades II and III) in 9 patients, and oligoastrocytoma (grades II and III) in 5 patients. EPMR imaging was performed within 24 h after surgery. EPMR findings were compared with the neurosurgeon's intraoperative estimation of gross tumor removal. Patterns of contrast enhancement at the resection site, in residual and developing tumor tissue and blood at the resection site were evaluated on EPMR and in follow-up studies. 'Residual tumor' was defined as contrast enhancing mass at the operative site on EPMR. 'Regrowth' was defined as contrast enhancing mass detected on follow-up in the same location as the primary tumor. 'Recurrence' was defined as appearance of a mass lesion in the brain parenchyma distant from the resection bed during follow-up. Results: Nineteen patients showed no evidence of residual tumor, regrowth, or recurrence on EPMR or any of the later follow-up radiological examinations. EPMR identified 20 cases of residual tumor. Follow-up showed tumor regrowth in 10 patients, and tumor recurrence in 1 case. EPMR showed contrast enhancement of the resection bed in 45 of the 50 patients. Four of the 20 residual tumors showed a thick linear enhancement pattern, and the other 16 cases exhibited thick linear-nodular enhancement. No thin linear enhancement was observed in the residual tumor group. Nine of the 10-regrowth tumors showed a thick linear-nodular enhancement pattern, and one

  2. Self-learning computers for surgical planning and prediction of postoperative alignment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafage, Renaud; Pesenti, Sébastien; Lafage, Virginie; Schwab, Frank J

    2018-02-01

    In past decades, the role of sagittal alignment has been widely demonstrated in the setting of spinal conditions. As several parameters can be affected, identifying the driver of the deformity is the cornerstone of a successful treatment approach. Despite the importance of restoring sagittal alignment for optimizing outcome, this task remains challenging. Self-learning computers and optimized algorithms are of great interest in spine surgery as in that they facilitate better planning and prediction of postoperative alignment. Nowadays, computer-assisted tools are part of surgeons' daily practice; however, the use of such tools remains to be time-consuming. NARRATIVE REVIEW AND RESULTS: Computer-assisted methods for the prediction of postoperative alignment consist of a three step analysis: identification of anatomical landmark, definition of alignment objectives, and simulation of surgery. Recently, complex rules for the prediction of alignment have been proposed. Even though this kind of work leads to more personalized objectives, the number of parameters involved renders it difficult for clinical use, stressing the importance of developing computer-assisted tools. The evolution of our current technology, including machine learning and other types of advanced algorithms, will provide powerful tools that could be useful in improving surgical outcomes and alignment prediction. These tools can combine different types of advanced technologies, such as image recognition and shape modeling, and using this technique, computer-assisted methods are able to predict spinal shape. The development of powerful computer-assisted methods involves the integration of several sources of information such as radiographic parameters (X-rays, MRI, CT scan, etc.), demographic information, and unusual non-osseous parameters (muscle quality, proprioception, gait analysis data). In using a larger set of data, these methods will aim to mimic what is actually done by spine surgeons, leading

  3. Screening Preoperative Peptide Biomarkers for Predicting Postoperative Myocardial Infarction after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Zhibin; Hu, Ping; Liu, Jianxin; Wang, Dianjun; Jin, Longyu; Hong, Chao

    2014-01-01

    Postoperative myocardial infarction (PMI) is one of the most serious complications of cardiac surgeries. No preoperative biomarker is currently available for predicting PMI after cardiac surgeries. In the present study, we used a phage display peptide library to screen potential preoperative peptide biomarkers for predicting PMI after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. Twenty patients who developed PMI after CABG and 20 age-, sex-, and body mass index-matched patients without PMI after CABG were enrolled as a discovery cohort. Another 50 patients who developed PMI after CABG and 50 randomly selected patients without PMI after CABG were enrolled as a validation cohort to validate the potential peptide biomarkers identified in the discovery cohort. Fifty randomly selected healthy volunteers were also enrolled in the validation phase as a healthy control group. In the discovery/screening phase, 17 out of 20 randomly selected phage clones exhibited specific reaction with purified sera IgG from the PMI group, among which 11 came from the same phage clone with inserted peptide sequence GVIMVIAVSCVF (named PMI-1). In the validation phase, phage ELISA showed that serum IgG from 90% of patients in the PMI group had a positive reaction with PMI-1; in contrast, only 14% and 6% of patients in the non-PMI group and the healthy control group had a positive reaction with PMI-1, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy of the PMI-1 phage clone to preoperatively identify patients who would develop PMI after CABG were 90.0%, 86.0%, 86.5, 89.5% and 88.0%, respectively. The absorbance value of the PMI-1 phage clone showed statistically significant correlation with the peak postoperative serum cardiac troponin I level (r = 0.349, p = 0.012) in the PMI group. In conclusion, we for the first time identified a mimic peptide (PMI-1) with high validity in preoperative prediction of PMI after CABG. PMID

  4. Predictive capabilities of preoperative and postoperative pulmonary function tests in delayed repair of congenital diaphragmatic hernia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tracy, T F; Bailey, P V; Sadiq, F; Noguchi, A; Silen, M L; Weber, T R

    1994-02-01

    To improve the survival of newborns with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CHD), preoperative stabilization with conventional ventilatory therapy and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) have been used. Measurements that quantify pulmonary function may allow an accurate assessment of lethal pulmonary hypoplasia and predict outcome. Pulmonary function tests (PFTs) were obtained in 20 infants preoperatively and postoperatively; these included measurements of compliance, dynamic compliance, and tidal volume. Overall survival was 75%. Six surviving infants were initially managed with ventilator therapy alone, followed by repair (group 1). The remaining 14 patients, who were moribund at presentation or whose initial ventilator therapy failed, were placed on ECMO and received repair during bypass; nine survived (group 2), and five died (group 3). Compliance, dynamic compliance, and tidal volume obtained at initial presentation and immediately preoperatively were significantly higher for group 1 as compared with groups 2 and 3. Infants whose initial compliance was greater than 0.25 mL/cm H2O/kg and initial tidal volume was greater than 3.5 mL/kg did not require ECMO. Ultimate improvement in compliance was noted in 5 of 6 patients in group 1, 8 of 8 patients in group 2, and 5 of 5 in group 3. This improvement followed an initial decline in compliance in 9 of 14 survivors, from 15% to 76%. All six patients in group 1 had tidal volumes of more than 4 mL/kg, as did 7 of 9 patients in group 2. Only one patient among the ECMO nonsurvivors (group 3) had a postoperative tidal volume of this magnitude. These data suggest that initial PFTs may predict which infants will require ECMO.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  5. Predictive risk factors for persistent postherniotomy pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aasvang, Eske K; Gmaehle, Eliza; Hansen, Jeanette B

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Persistent postherniotomy pain (PPP) affects everyday activities in 5-10% of patients. Identification of predisposing factors may help to identify the risk groups and guide anesthetic or surgical procedures in reducing risk for PPP. METHODS: A prospective study was conducted in 464...... patients undergoing open or laparoscopic transabdominal preperitoneal elective groin hernia repair. Primary outcome was identification of risk factors for substantial pain-related functional impairment at 6 months postoperatively assessed by the validated Activity Assessment Scale (AAS). Data on potential...... risk factors for PPP were collected preoperatively (pain from the groin hernia, preoperative AAS score, pain from other body regions, and psychometric assessment). Pain scores were collected on days 7 and 30 postoperatively. Sensory functions including pain response to tonic heat stimulation were...

  6. Risk of severe and refractory postoperative nausea and vomiting in patients undergoing diep flap breast reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manahan, Michele A; Basdag, Basak; Kalmar, Christopher L; Shridharani, Sachin M; Magarakis, Michael; Jacobs, Lisa K; Thomsen, Robert W; Rosson, Gedge D

    2014-02-01

    Postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) are commonly feared after general anesthesia and can impact results. The primary aim of our study was to examine incidence and severity of PONV by investigating complete response, or absence of PONV, to prophylaxis used in patients undergoing DIEP flaps. Our secondary aims were definition of the magnitude of risk, state of the art of interventions, clinical sequelae of PONV, and interaction between these variables, specifically for DIEP patients. A retrospective chart review occurred for 29 patients undergoing DIEP flap breast reconstruction from September 2007 to February 2008. We assessed known patient and procedure-specific risks for PONV after DIEPs, prophylactic antiemetic regimens, incidence, and severity of PONV, postoperative antiemetic rescues, and effects of risks and treatments on symptoms. Three or more established risks existed in all patients, with up to seven risks per patient. Although 90% of patients received diverse prophylaxis, 76% of patients experienced PONV, and 66% experienced its severe form, emesis. Early PONV (73%) was frequent; symptoms were long lasting (average 20 hours for nausea and emesis); and multiple rescue medications were frequently required (55% for nausea, 58% for emesis). Length of surgery and nonsmoking statistically significantly impacted PONV. We identify previously undocumented high risks for PONV in DIEP patients. High frequency, severity, and refractoriness of PONV occur despite standard prophylaxis. Plastic surgeons and anesthesiologists should further investigate methods to optimize PONV prophylaxis and treatment in DIEP flap patients. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Evaluation of the Predictive Value of Intraoperative Changes in Motor-Evoked Potentials of Caudal Cranial Nerves for the Postoperative Functional Outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kullmann, Marcel; Tatagiba, Marcos; Liebsch, Marina; Feigl, Guenther C

    2016-11-01

    The predictive value of changes in intraoperatively acquired motor-evoked potentials (MEPs) of the lower cranial nerves (LCN) IX-X (glossopharyngeal-vagus nerve) and CN XII (hypoglossal nerve) on operative outcomes was investigated. MEPs of CN IX-X and CN XII were recorded intraoperatively in 63 patients undergoing surgery of the posterior cranial fossa. We correlated the changes of the MEPs with postoperative nerve function. For CN IX-X, we found a correlation between the amplitude of the MEP ratio and uvula deviation (P = 0.028) and the amplitude duration of the MEP and gag reflex function (P = 0.027). Patients with an MEP ratio of the glossopharyngeal-vagus amplitude ≤1.47 μV had a 3.4 times increased risk of developing a uvula deviation. Patients with a final MEP duration of the CN IX-X ≤11.6 milliseconds had a 3.6 times increased risk for their gag reflex to become extinct. Our study greatly contributes to the current knowledge of intraoperative MEPs as a predictor for postoperative cranial nerve function. We were able to extent previous findings on MEP values of the facial nerve on postoperative nerve function to 3 additional cranial nerves. Finding reliable predictors for postoperative nerve function is of great importance to the overall quality of life for a patient undergoing surgery of the posterior cranial fossa. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Predictive factors for postoperative visual function of primary chronic rhegmatogenous retinal detachment after scleral buckling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Wei; Li, Jiu-Ke; Jin, Xiao-Hong; Dai, Yuan-Min; Li, Yu-Min

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate predictive factors for postoperative visual function of primary chronic rhegmatgenous retinal detachment (RRD) after sclera buckling (SB). Totally 48 patients (51 eyes) with primary chronic RRD were included in this prospective interventional clinical cases study, which underwent SB alone from June 2008 to December 2014. Age, sex, symptoms duration, detached extension, retinal hole position, size, type, fovea on/off, proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR), posterior vitreous detachment (PVD), baseline best corrected visual acuity (BCVA), operative duration, follow up duration, final BCVA were measured. Pearson correlation analysis, Spearman correlation analysis and multivariate linear stepwise regression were used to confirm predictive factors for better final visual acuity. Student's t-test, Wilcoxon two-sample test, Chi-square test and logistic stepwise regression were used to confirm predictive factors for better vision improvement. Baseline BCVA was 0.8313±0.6911 logMAR and final BCVA was 0.4761±0.4956 logMAR. Primary surgical success rate was 92.16% (47/51). Correlation analyses revealed shorter symptoms duration (r=0.3850, P=0.0053), less detached area (r=0.5489, Ppredictive factors were better baseline BCVA [partial R-square (PR(2))=0.5316, Ppredictive factors for better vision improvement were better baseline vision [odds ratio (OR) =50.369, P=0.0041] and longer follow up duration (OR=1.144, P=0.0067). Independent predictive factors for better visual outcome of primary chronic RRD after SB are better baseline BCVA, shorter symptoms duration, shorter operative duration and longer follow up duration, while independent predictive factors for better vision improvement after operation are better baseline vision and longer follow up duration.

  9. Clinical Characteristics and Risk Factors for the Development of Postoperative Hepatic Steatosis After Total Pancreatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hata, Tatsuo; Ishida, Masaharu; Motoi, Fuyuhiko; Sakata, Naoaki; Yoshimatsu, Gumpei; Naitoh, Takeshi; Katayose, Yu; Egawa, Shinichi; Unno, Michiaki

    2016-03-01

    The occurrence of hepatic steatosis after pancreatectomy is known to be associated with the remnant pancreatic function. However, other risk factors for hepatic steatosis after pancreatectomy remain unknown. The aims of this study were to identify other risk factors in addition to the remnant pancreatic function and elucidate the relationship between postoperative hepatic steatosis and pancreatic exocrine insufficiency in totally pancreatomized patients. Forty-three patients who underwent total pancreatectomy were analyzed. Hepatic steatosis was defined as the attenuation of unenhanced computed tomography values. Clinical findings and laboratory data were compared between patients with and without hepatic steatosis. Sixteen (37.2%) patients developed hepatic steatosis after total pancreatectomy, with marked declines in the Controlling Nutritional Status score and body mass index. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that the attenuation of computed tomography values was correlated with female sex (P = 0.002), early postoperative serum albumin levels (P = 0.003), and pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy with high-dose pancrelipase (P = 0.032). Postoperative hepatic steatosis after pancreatectomy is associated with sex, malnutrition, and pancreatic exocrine insufficiency. High-dose pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy may have preventive effects on hepatic steatosis occurring after pancreatectomy.

  10. Risk factors for postoperative recurrence of spontaneous pneumothorax treated by video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery†.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imperatori, Andrea; Rotolo, Nicola; Spagnoletti, Marco; Festi, Luigi; Berizzi, Fabio; Di Natale, Davide; Nardecchia, Elisa; Dominioni, Lorenzo

    2015-05-01

    Over the past two decades, video-assisted thoracoscopic blebectomy and pleurodesis have been used as a safe and reliable option for treatment of spontaneous pneumothorax. The aim of this study is to evaluate the long-term outcome of video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) treatment of spontaneous pneumothorax in young patients, and to identify risk factors for postoperative recurrence. We retrospectively analysed the outcome of VATS treatment of spontaneous pneumothorax in our institution in 150 consecutive young patients (age ≤ 40 years) in the years 1997-2010. Treatment consisted of stapling blebectomy and partial parietal pleurectomy. After excluding 16 patients lost to follow-up, in 134 cases [110 men, 24 women; mean age, 25 ± 7 standard deviation years; median follow-up, 79 months (range: 36-187 months)], we evaluated postoperative complications, focusing on pneumothorax recurrence, thoracic dysaesthesia and chronic chest pain. Risk factors for postoperative pneumothorax recurrence were analysed by logistic regression. Of 134 treated patients, 3 (2.2%) required early reoperation (2 for bleeding; 1 for persistent air leaks). Postoperative (90-day) mortality was nil. Ipsilateral pneumothorax recurred in 8 cases (6.0%) [median time of recurrence, 43 months (range: 1-71 months)]. At univariate analysis, the recurrence rate was significantly higher in women (4/24) than in men (4/110; P = 0.026) and in patients with >7-day postoperative air leaks (P = 0.021). Multivariate analysis confirmed that pneumothorax recurrence correlated independently with prolonged air leaks (P = 0.037) and with female gender (P = 0.045). Chronic chest wall dysaesthesia was reported by 13 patients (9.7%). In 3 patients, (2.2%) chronic thoracic pain (analogical score >4) was recorded, but only 1 patient required analgesics more than once a month. VATS blebectomy and parietal pleurectomy is a safe procedure for treatment of spontaneous pneumothorax in young patients, with a 6% long

  11. Postoperative serum CEA level as predictive factor for survival in patients with colorectal cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemberger, J.J.; Bogar, M.L.; Takacs Kucsera, M.F.; Csernetics, I.F.

    2002-01-01

    Aim: It is known that routine follow-up of patients with resected colorectal cancer includes serial CEA determinations. In this retrospective study we have investigated relationship between CEA level and survival and whether achieved results enable differentiation of tumors with slow and rapid growth. Material and Methods: Mainly between 1995 and 1999 periodic CEA determination by IRMA were performed in 269 patients after curative resection of colorectal carcinoma. Number of CEA determination/patient were 2-16(median 6). Survival ranged 4,5 and>249,7 months. Based on CEA results patients were divided in group with normal (<10ng/ml) and elevated (=10ng/ml) values regardless of postoperative treatment. Survival curves were computed by Kaplan-Meier method and difference was evaluated by logrank test and difference between proportions. Results:Normal end elevated CEA was found in 193 and 76 patients, respectively. The difference of survival curves between patients with normal and elevated CEA are highly significant (p<0,0001). However, only 10 months after tumor resection is the difference between survived proportions significant suggesting already presence of CEA produced micrometastases contributing to progression of neoplastic process. The mean survival time at normal and elevated CEA values are 142,54±17,86(median 128,60±24,04) and 34,15±4,28 (median 25,20±1,97) months, respectively. No significant difference of survival was found regarding tumor localization. Conclusion:The results show that with regard to CEA level it is possible to divide colorectal tumors on marker negative and positive. Marker negative are with slower growth and relatively good prognosis. Marker positive are associated with elevated CEA level and with considerable shorter survival. Postoperative CEA level is valuable parameter in prediction of patient's outcome

  12. Esophagogastric junction distensibility measurements during Heller myotomy and POEM for achalasia predict postoperative symptomatic outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teitelbaum, Ezra N.; Soper, Nathaniel J.; Pandolfino, John E.; Kahrilas, Peter J.; Hirano, Ikuo; Boris, Lubomyr; Nicodème, Frédéric; Lin, Zhiyue; Hungness, Eric S.

    2015-01-01

    Background The functional lumen imaging probe (FLIP) is a novel diagnostic tool that can be used to measure esophagogastric junction (EGJ) distensibility. In this study we performed intraoperative FLIP measurements during laparoscopic Heller myotomy (LHM) and peroral esophageal myotomy (POEM) for treatment of achalasia and evaluated the relationship between EGJ distensibility and postoperative symptoms. Methods Distensibility index (DI) (defined as the minimum cross-sectional area at the EGJ divided by distensive pressure) was measured with FLIP at two time points during LHM and POEM: 1) at baseline after induction of anesthesia, and 2) after operation completion. Results Measurements were performed in 20 patients undergoing LHM and 36 undergoing POEM. Both operations resulted in an increase in DI, although this increase was larger with POEM (7±3.1 vs. 5.1±3.4mm2/mmHg, p3mm2/mmHg. When all patients were divided into thirds based on final DI, none in the lowest DI group (7), as compared with 20% in the middle third (6–9mm2/mmHg) and 36% in the highest third (>9mm2/mmHg). Patients within an “ideal” final DI range (4.5–8.5 mm2/mmHg) had optimal symptomatic outcomes (i.e. Eckardt≤1 and GerdQ≤7) in 88% of cases, compared with 47% in those with a final DI above or below that range (p<.05). Conclusions Intraoperative EGJ distensibility measurements with FLIP were predictive of postoperative symptomatic outcomes. These results provide initial evidence that FLIP has the potential to act as a useful calibration tool during operations for achalasia. PMID:25055891

  13. Intraoperative and postoperative risk factors for anastomotic leakage and pneumonia after esophagectomy for cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goense, L; van Rossum, P S N; Tromp, M; Joore, H C; van Dijk, D; Kroese, A C; Ruurda, J P; van Hillegersberg, R

    2017-01-01

    Morbidity and mortality after esophagectomy are often related to anastomotic leakage or pneumonia. This study aimed to assess the relationship of intraoperative and postoperative vital parameters with anastomotic leakage and pneumonia after esophagectomy. Consecutive patients who underwent transthoracic esophagectomy with cervical anastomosis for esophageal cancer from January 2012 to December 2013 were analyzed. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to determine potential associations of hemodynamic and respiratory parameters with anastomotic leakage or pneumonia. From a total of 82 included patients, 19 (23%) developed anastomotic leakage and 31 (38%) experienced pneumonia. The single independent factor associated with an increased risk of anastomotic leakage in multivariable analysis included a lower minimum intraoperative pH (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.77-0.94). An increased risk of pneumonia was associated with a lower mean arterial pressure (MAP) in the first 12 hours after surgery (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.86-0.99) and a higher maximum intraoperative pH (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.02-1.27). Interestingly, no differences were noted for the MAP and inotrope requirement between patients with and without anastomotic leakage. A lower minimum intraoperative pH (below 7.25) is associated with an increased risk of anastomotic leakage after esophagectomy, whereas a lower postoperative average MAP (below 83 mmHg) and a higher intraoperative pH (above 7.34) increase the risk of postoperative pneumonia. These parameters indicate the importance of setting strict perioperative goals to be protected intensively. © International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Preoperative immobility significantly impacts the risk of postoperative complications in bariatric surgery patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, Rana M; Helm, Melissa; Gould, Jon C; Kindel, Tammy L

    2018-03-05

    Preoperative immobility in general surgery patients has been associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications. It is unknown if immobility affects bariatric surgery outcomes. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of immobility on 30-day postoperative bariatric surgery outcomes. This study took place at a university hospital in the United States. The Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program 2015 data set was queried for primary minimally invasive bariatric procedures. Preoperative immobility was defined as limited ambulation most or all the time. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine if immobile patients are at increased risk (odds ratio [OR]) for 30-day complications. There were 148,710 primary minimally invasive bariatric procedures in 2015. Immobile patients had an increased risk of mortality (OR 4.59, Pbariatric surgery outcomes. Immobile patients have a significantly increased risk of morbidity and mortality. This study provides an opportunity for the development of multiple quality initiatives to improve the safety and perioperative complication profile for immobile patients undergoing bariatric surgery. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Clinical Prediction Model and Tool for Assessing Risk of Persistent Pain After Breast Cancer Surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meretoja, Tuomo J; Andersen, Kenneth Geving; Bruce, Julie

    2017-01-01

    are missing. The aim was to develop a clinically applicable risk prediction tool. Methods The prediction models were developed and tested using three prospective data sets from Finland (n = 860), Denmark (n = 453), and Scotland (n = 231). Prediction models for persistent pain of moderate to severe intensity......), high body mass index ( P = .039), axillary lymph node dissection ( P = .008), and more severe acute postoperative pain intensity at the seventh postoperative day ( P = .003) predicted persistent pain in the final prediction model, which performed well in the Danish (ROC-AUC, 0.739) and Scottish (ROC......-AUC, 0.740) cohorts. At the 20% risk level, the model had 32.8% and 47.4% sensitivity and 94.4% and 82.4% specificity in the Danish and Scottish cohorts, respectively. Conclusion Our validated prediction models and an online risk calculator provide clinicians and researchers with a simple tool to screen...

  16. Tail Risk Premia and Return Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Todorov, Viktor; Xu, Lai

    The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may be attribu......The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may......-varying economic uncertainty and changes in risk aversion, or market fears, respectively....

  17. Intraoperative Inducibility of Atrial Fibrillation Does Not Predict Early Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanters, Eva A H; Teuwen, Christophe P; Yaksh, Ameeta; Kik, Charles; van der Does, Lisette J M E; Mouws, Elisabeth M J P; Knops, Paul; van Groningen, Nicole J; Hokken, Thijmen; Bogers, Ad J J C; de Groot, Natasja M S

    2018-03-10

    Early postoperative atrial fibrillation (EPoAF) is associated with thromboembolic events, prolonged hospitalization, and development of late PoAF (LPoAF). It is, however, unknown if EPoAF can be predicted by intraoperative AF inducibility. The aims of this study are therefore to explore (1) the value of intraoperative inducibility of AF for development of both EPoAF and LPoAF and (2) the predictive value of de novo EPoAF for recurrence of LPoAF. Patients (N=496, 75% male) undergoing cardiothoracic surgery for coronary and/or valvular heart disease were included. AF induction was attempted by atrial pacing, before extracorporeal circulation. All patients were on continuous rhythm monitoring until discharge to detect EPoAF. During a follow-up period of 2 years, LPoAF was detected by ECGs and Holter recordings. Sustained AF was inducible in 56% of patients. There was no difference in patients with or without AF before surgery ( P =0.159), or between different types of surgery ( P =0.687). In patients without a history of AF, incidence of EPoAF and LPoAF was 37% and 2%, respectively. EPoAF recurred in 58% patients with preoperative AF, 53% developed LPoAF. There were no correlations between intraoperative inducibility and EPoAF or LPoAF ( P >0.05). EPoAF was not correlated with LPoAF in patients without a history of AF ( P =0.116), in contrast to patients with AF before surgery ( P <0.001). Intraoperative AF inducibility does not predict development of either EPoAF or LPoAF. In patients with AF before surgery, EPoAF is correlated with LPoAF recurrences. This correlation is absent in patients without AF before surgery. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  18. Patient-reported allergies predict postoperative outcomes and psychosomatic markers following spine surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, David D; Ye, Wenda; Xiao, Roy; Miller, Jacob A; Mroz, Thomas E; Steinmetz, Michael P; Nagel, Sean J; Machado, Andre G

    2018-05-22

    Prior studies have shown that patient-reported allergies can be prognostic of poorer postoperative outcomes. To investigate the correlation between self-reported allergies and outcomes after cervical or lumbar spine surgery. Retrospective cohort study at a single tertiary-care institution. All patients undergoing cervical or lumbar spine surgery from 2009-2014. The primary outcome measure was change in the EuroQol-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) following surgery. Secondary outcomes included change in the Pain Disability Questionnaire (PDQ) and Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), achieving the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) in these measures, as well as cost of admission. Prior to and following surgery, EQ-5D, PDQ, and PHQ-9 were recorded for patients with available data. Paired student's t-tests were used to compare change in these measures following surgery. Multivariable linear and logistic regression were used to assess the relationship between the log transformation of the total number of allergies and outcomes. 592 cervical patients and 4,465 lumbar patients were included. The median number of reported allergies was two. The EQ-5D index increased from 0.539 to 0.703 for cervical patients and from 0.530 to 0.676 for lumbar patients (pallergies predicted significantly higher odds of achieving the PDQ MCID (OR = 2.09, 95% CI 1.05-4.15, p=0.02 for cervical patients; OR = 1.30, 95% CI 1.03-1.68, p=0.03 for lumbar patients). However, this relationship was not durable for patients with follow-up exceeding 1 year. The log transformation of number of allergies for lumbar patients predicted significantly increased cost of admission (β=$3,597, pallergies correlate with subjective improvement in pain and disability following spine surgery and may serve as a marker of postoperative outcomes. The relationship between allergies and PDQ improvement may be secondary to the short-term expectation-actuality discrepancy, as this relationship was not durable beyond 1

  19. Operative Start Time Does Not Affect Post-Operative Infection Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guidry, Christopher A; Davies, Stephen W; Willis, Rhett N; Dietch, Zachary C; Shah, Puja M; Sawyer, Robert G

    2016-10-01

    Surgical care is delivered 24 h a day at most institutions. Alarmingly, some authors have found that certain operative start times are associated with greater morbidity and mortality rates. This effect has been noted in both the public and private sector. Although some of these differences may be related to process, they may also be caused by the human circadian rhythm and corresponding changes in host defenses. We hypothesized that the time of day of an operation would impact the frequency of certain post-operative outcomes significantly. Cases at a single tertiary-care center reported to the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program over a 10-year period were identified. Operative start times were divided into six-hour blocks, with 6 am to noon serving as the reference. Standard univariable techniques were applied. Multivariable logistic regression with mixed effects modeling then was used to determine the relation between operative start times and infectious outcomes, controlling for surgeon clustering. Statistical significance was set at p operative infectious complication. Seventy percent of these infections (n = 1,506) were surgical site infections. On univariable analysis considering all cases, nighttime and evening operations had higher rates of post-operative infections than those in performed during the day (9.1% from 6 am to noon; 9.7% from noon to 6 pm; 14.8% from 6 pm to midnight; and 14.4% from midnight to 6 am; p operative start time was not associated with the risk of post-operative infection, even when emergency cases were considered independently. Our data suggest that operative start times have no correlation with post-operative infectious complications. Further work is required to identify the source of the time-dependent outcome variability observed in previous studies.

  20. The use of postoperative slit-lamp optical coherence tomography to predict primary failure in descemet stripping automated endothelial keratoplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Carolyn Y; Ritterband, David C; Palmiero, Pat-Michael; Seedor, John A; Papachristou, George; Harizman, Noga; Liebmann, Jeffrey M; Ritch, Robert

    2009-05-01

    To determine if central donor lenticle thickness as measured by slit-lamp optical coherence tomography (SL OCT; Heidelberg Engineering, Heidelberg, Germany) is predictive of primary donor failure in patients undergoing Descemet stripping automated endothelial keratoplasty (DSAEK). Retrospective cross-sectional study. Eighty-four patients who underwent DSAEK surgery by 2 surgeons (D.C.R. and J.A.S.) were enrolled. At each postoperative visit (postoperative day 1, week 1, month 1, and month 2), an SL OCT scan was obtained. Statistical differences in SL OCT measurements of successful and failed DSAEK procedures were measured using the Student t test. A successful DSAEK surgery was defined as having an anatomically attached, clear recipient corneal stroma and donor lenticle compatible with good vision 2 months after surgery. A failed DSAEK surgery was defined as an attached donor lenticle with SL evidence of corneal edema and thickening visible at 2 months or more. Ninety-three eyes of 84 consecutive patients who underwent DSAEK surgery also underwent postoperative SL OCT. After 2 months of follow-up, 82 (88%) procedures were successful and 11 (12%) procedures were failures. The average donor lenticle thickness in successful DSAEK eyes was 314 +/- 128 microm on postoperative day 1 as compared with failed DSAEK eyes, which averaged 532 +/- 259 microm (P = .0013). This was independent regardless of whether the lenticle was attached on the first postoperative visit. Seventy-nine (98%) successful DSAEK eyes had a lenticle thickness of or = 350 microm at the 1-week postoperative visit. Statistically significant differences in SL OCT thickness measurements were seen between successful and failed DSAEK cases at all examinations after postoperative week 1. Corneal thickness measurements made with SL OCT are an important predictor of DSAEK failure in both attached and detached lenticles within the first week of surgery. DSAEK lenticle thickness of 350 microm or less at 1 week

  1. Interpretation of Post-operative Distal Humerus Radiographs After Internal Fixation: Prediction of Later Loss of Fixation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Claessen, F.M.; Stoop, N.; Doornberg, J.N.; Guitton, T.G.; Bekerom, M.P. van den; Ring, D.; Biert, J.; et al.,

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: Stable fixation of distal humerus fracture fragments is necessary for adequate healing and maintenance of reduction. The purpose of this study was to measure the reliability and accuracy of interpretation of postoperative radiographs to predict which implants will loosen or break after

  2. Comparison of two instruments for assessing risk of postoperative nausea and vomiting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapoor, Rachna; Hola, Eric T; Adamson, Robert T; Mathis, A Scott

    2008-03-01

    Two instruments for assessing patients' risk of postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) were compared. The existing protocol (protocol 1) assessed PONV risk using 16 weighted risk factors and was used for both adults and pediatric patients. The new protocol (protocol 2) included a form for adults and a pediatric-specific form. The form for adults utilized the simplified risk score, calculated using a validated, nonweighted, 4-point scale, and categorized patients' risk of PONV as low, moderate, or high. The form for pediatric patients used a 7-point, non-weighted scale and categorized patients' risk of PONV as moderate or high. A list was generated of all patients who had surgery during August 2005, for whom protocol 1 was used, and during April 2006, for whom protocol 2 was used. Fifty patients from each time period were randomly selected for data analysis. Data collected included the percentage of the form completed, the development of PONV, the number of PONV risk factors, patient demographics, and the appropriateness of prophylaxis. The mean +/- S.D. number of PONV risk factors was significantly lower in the group treated according to protocol 2 ( p = 0.001), but fewer patients in this group were categorized as low or moderate risk and more patients were identified as high risk (p < 0.001). More patients assessed by protocol 2 received fewer interventions than recommended (p < 0.001); however, the frequency of PONV did not significantly differ between groups. Implementation of a validated and simplified PONV risk-assessment tool appeared to improve form completion rates and appropriate risk assessment; however, the rates of PONV remained similar and fewer patients received appropriate prophylaxis compared with patients assessed by the existing risk-assessment tool.

  3. Prediction of postoperative morbidity, mortality and rehabilitation in hip fracture patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foss, Nicolai B; Kristensen, Morten T; Kehlet, Henrik

    2006-01-01

    To validate the cumulated ambulation score as an early postoperative predictor of short-term outcome in hip fracture patients.......To validate the cumulated ambulation score as an early postoperative predictor of short-term outcome in hip fracture patients....

  4. Value of geriatric frailty and nutritional status assessment in predicting postoperative mortality in gastric cancer surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tegels, Juul J W; de Maat, M F G; Hulsewé, K W E; Hoofwijk, A G M; Stoot, J H M B

    2014-03-01

    This study seeks to evaluate assessment of geriatric frailty and nutritional status in predicting postoperative mortality in gastric cancer surgery. Preoperatively, patients operated for gastric adenocarcinoma underwent assessment of Groningen Frailty Indicator (GFI) and Short Nutritional Assessment Questionnaire (SNAQ). We studied retrospectively whether these scores were associated with in-hospital mortality. From 2005 to September 2012 180 patients underwent surgery with an overall mortality of 8.3%. Patients with a GFI ≥ 3 (n = 30, 24%) had a mortality rate of 23.3% versus 5.2% in the lower GFI group (OR 4.0, 95%CI 1.1-14.1, P = 0.03). For patients who underwent surgery with curative intent (n = 125), this was 27.3% for patients with GFI ≥ 3 (n = 22, 18%) versus 5.7% with GFI gastric cancer surgical mortality and geriatric frailty as well as nutritional status using a simple questionnaire. This may have implications in preoperative decision making in selecting patients who optimally benefit from surgery.

  5. Stimulation site within the MRI-defined STN predicts postoperative motor outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wodarg, Fritz; Herzog, Jan; Reese, René; Falk, Daniela; Pinsker, Markus O; Steigerwald, Frank; Jansen, Olav; Deuschl, Günther; Mehdorn, H Maximillian; Volkmann, Jens

    2012-06-01

    High-frequency stimulation of the subthalamic nucleus (STN-HFS) is highly effective in treating motor symptoms in Parkinson's disease (PD) and medication side effects as well as in improving quality of life. Despite preoperative screening for patients as eligible candidates for this treatment, electrode position may furthermore influence treatment quality. Here, we investigated the relationship between the anatomical site of stimulation within the MRI-defined STN and the outcome of PD patients after STN-HFS. In 30 PD patients with bilateral STN stimulation, we retrospectively defined the boundaries of the STN within the axial target plane of the stereotactic T2-weighted MRI and determined the position of the active electrode contact in relation to the border of the STN. The position of the active contact within the STN was the only variable to predict the outcome of STN stimulation. In contrast, covariates such as age, disease duration, symptom severity, and response to levodopa had no effect. The lateral position of the stimulation contact within the STN led to significantly better clinical improvement, lower stimulation parameters, and less need for postoperative dopaminergic medication. The outcome of patients with stimulation contacts within the medial region of the STN was significantly worse. Precise targeting of the lateral region of the STN is essential for achieving sufficient stimulation efficacy. Preoperative T2-weighted MRI might be a useful component of the targeting procedure to improve the outcome of PD patients. Copyright © 2012 Movement Disorder Society.

  6. Postoperative Elevation of the Neutrophil: Lymphocyte Ratio Predicts Complications Following Esophageal Resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vulliamy, Paul; McCluney, Simon; Mukherjee, Samrat; Ashby, Luke; Amalesh, Thangadorai

    2016-06-01

    Complications following esophagectomy are a significant source of morbidity. The aim of this study was to investigate the utility of the neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in the early identification of complications following esophagectomy, as compared to other routinely available parameters. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing Ivor-Lewis esophagectomy at a single centre. Baseline characteristics and complications occurring within the first 30 days of surgery were recorded. White blood cell counts and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels immediately following surgery (day 0) and over the subsequent three postoperative days were analysed. Sixty-five patients were included, of whom 29 (45 %) developed complications. The median NLR was similar among patients with and without a complicated recovery on day 0 (12.7 vs 13.6, p = 0.70) and day 1 (10.0 vs 9.3, p = 0.29). Patients who subsequently developed complications had a higher NLR on day 2 (11.8 vs 7.5, p 8.3 on day 2 had a sensitivity of 93 % and a specificity of 72 % for predicting complications. The NLR is a simple and routinely available parameter which has a high sensitivity in the early detection of complications following esophagectomy.

  7. Factores predictivos de las infecciones posoperatorias Prediction factors of the postoperative infections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Pascual Bestard

    2011-09-01

    , which still involve a significant number of patients operated on, thus justifying the interest in the conduction of present paper. Objective: to describe the behavior the some of the prediction factors related to appearance of the postoperative infections in our practice. Methods: a cross-sectional, descriptive and observational study was conducted in admitted and operated on patients with postsurgical infections in the general surgery service of the "Saturnino Lora" Teaching Provincial Hospital over 2008, according to the selected prediction factors. Results: in relation to the contamination, the global rate of postoperative infection and that of the clean wounds are within the universally accepted limits, although are higher in the urgent, dirty and contaminated interventions for that located in the surgical site, as well as in patients with an ASA II and ASA III physical condition according the American Society of Anaesthesiology (ASA independently of its nutritional status and the surgical time of interventions. Conclusions: the postsurgical infection rates increase as far as the conditions to operate on are unfavourable and the selected prediction factors are related mainly to that located in the surgical site, with de contamination level, the type of intervention and the physical preoperative status of patient.

  8. Independent risk factors for postoperative pain in need of intervention early after awakening from general anaesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mei, Wei; Seeling, Matthes; Franck, Martin; Radtke, Finn; Brantner, Benedikt; Wernecke, Klaus-Dieter; Spies, Claudia

    2010-02-01

    Despite advances in postoperative pain management, the proportion of patients with moderate to severe postoperative pain is still ranging 20-80%. In this retrospective study, we investigated 1736 patients to determine the incidence of postoperative pain in need of intervention (PPINI)defined as numeric rating scale >4 at rest in the post anaesthesia care unit early after awakening from general anaesthesia, and to identify possible risk factors. The proportion of patients with PPINI was 28.5%. On multivariate analysis, younger age (OR=1.300 [1.007-1.678], p=0.044), female gender (OR=1.494 [1.138-1.962], p=0.004), obesity (OR=1.683 [1.226-2.310], p=0.001), use of nitrous oxide (OR=1.621 [1.110-2.366], p=0.012), longer duration of surgery (OR=1.165 [1.050-1.292], p=0.004), location of surgery (musculoskeletal OR=2.026 [1.326-3.095], p=0.001; intraabdominal OR=1.869 [1.148-3.043], p=0.012), and ASA-PS I-II (OR=1.519 [1.131-2.039], P=0.005) were identified as independent risk factors for PPINI. Patients with PPINI experienced significantly more PONV (10.3% vs. 6.2%, p=0.003), more psychomotor agitation (5.5% vs. 2.7%, p=0.004), needed more application of opioid in PACU (62.8% vs. 24.2%, p<0.001), stayed significantly longer in PACU (89.6min [70-120] vs. 80min [60-100], p<0.001), had a longer median length of hospital stay (6.6 days [4.0-8.8] vs. 6.0 days [3.2-7.8

  9. Lymph node ratio predicts the benefit of post-operative radiotherapy in oral cavity cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urban, Damien; Gluck, Iris; Pfeffer, M. Raphael; Symon, Zvi; Lawrence, Yaacov R.

    2013-01-01

    Background: The standard treatment for non-metastatic oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) is surgical resection followed by post-operative radiotherapy (PORT) with/without chemotherapy in high risk patients. Given the substantial toxicity of PORT we assessed lymph node ratio (LNR) as a predictor of PORT benefit. Design: By using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, we analyzed all node positive OCSCC patients diagnosed between 1988 and 2007 who underwent neck dissection. LNR was categorized into three groups: <6%, 6–12.5% and >12.5%. Results: In 3091 subjects identified, median survival was 32, 25 and 16 months for LNR Groups 1, 2 and 3, respectively. On multivariate analysis, survival was associated with age, race, grade, tumor size, nodal stage, extra-capsular extension, use of PORT and LNR. When stratified by LNR group, PORT was associated with a survival benefit only in Group 3 (LNR > 12.5%): 2 year survival 25% vs 37%. No benefit to PORT was seen when the LNR ⩽ 12.5%: 2 year survival 51% vs 54%. Conclusion: A low LNR is associated with extended survival in LN positive OCSCC. The survival benefit associated with PORT in this disease appears to be limited to those with a LNR > 12.5%. Validation is required prior to the clinical implementation of our findings

  10. Predictive value of early postoperative IOP and bleb morphology in Mitomycin-C augmented trabeculectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esfandiari, Hamed; Pakravan, Mohammad; Loewen, Nils A; Yaseri, Mehdi

    2017-01-01

    Background : To determine the predictive value of postoperative bleb morphological features and intraocular pressure (IOP) on the success rate of trabeculectomy. Methods : In this prospective interventional case series, we analyzed for one year 80 consecutive primary open angle glaucoma patients who underwent mitomycin-augmented trabeculectomy. Bleb morphology was scored using the Indiana bleb appearance grading scale (IBAGS). Success was defined as IOP ≤15 mmHg at 12 months. We applied a multivariable regression analysis and determined the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results : The mean age of participants was 62±12.3 years in the success and 63.2±16.3 years in the failure group (P= 0.430) with equal gender distribution (P=0.911). IOPs on day 1, 7 and 30 were similar in both (P= 0.193, 0.639, and 0.238, respectively.) The AUC of IOP at day 1, day 7 and 30 for predicting a successful outcome was 0.355, 0.452, and 0.80, respectively. The AUC for bleb morphology parameters of bleb height, extension, and vascularization, on day 14 were 0.368, 0.408, and 0.549, respectively. Values for day 30 were 0.428, 0.563, and 0.654. IOP change from day 1 to day 30 was a good predictor of failure (AUC=0.838, 95% CI: 0.704 to 0.971) with a change of more than 3 mmHg predicting failure with a sensitivity of 82.5% (95% CI: 68 to 91%) and a specificity of 87.5% (95% CI: 53 to 98%). Conclusions : IOP on day 30 had a fair to good accuracy while bleb features failed to predict success except bleb vascularity that had a poor to fair accuracy.  An IOP increase more than 3 mmHg during the first 30 days was a good predictor of failure.

  11. Patients with a high risk for obstructive sleep apnea syndrome: Postoperative respiratory complications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Pereira

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: STOP-BANG score (snore; tired; observed apnea; arterial pressure; body mass index; age; neck circumference and gender can predict the risk of a patient having Obstructive Syndrome Apnea (OSA. The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence STOP-BANG score ≥ 3, in surgical patients admitted to the Post-Anesthesia Care Unit (PACU. Methods: Observational, prospective study conducted in a post-anesthesia care unit (PACU during three weeks (2011. The study population consisted of adult patients after noncardiac and non-neurological surgery. Patients were classified as high risk of OSA (HR-OSA if STOP-BANG score ≥ 3 and Low-risk of OSA (LR-OSA if STOP-BANG score  3, em pacientes cirúrgicos internados na Unidade de Cuidados Pós-Anestésica (UCPA. Métodos: Estudo observacional e prospectivo conduzido numa UCPA, durante três semanas (2011. A população de estudo consistiu em doentes adultos após cirurgia não cardíaca e não neurológica. Os doentes foram considerados com alto risco de SAOS (AR-SAOS se tinham um score de STOP-BANG ≥3 e de baixo risco de SAOS (BR-SAOS se tinham score de STOP-BANG <3. Foram avaliados dados demográficos dos doentes e colhidas variáveis intraoperatórias e pós-operatórias. As características dos doentes foram comparadas através do teste de Mann-Whitney, teste t, qui-quadrado ou teste exato de Fisher. Resultados: Um total de 357 doentes foram admitidos de UCPA e 340 preencheram os critérios de inclusão. Cento e setenta e nove (52% tinham AR-SAOS. Estes doentes eram mais velhos, tinham maior probabilidade de serem do sexo masculino, tinham um Índice Massa Corporal superior, tiveram uma classificação maior no estado físico American Society Anesthesiologists, uma maior incidência de doença cardíaca isquémica, insuficiência cardíaca, hipertensão, dislipidemia e eram mais frequentemente doentes

  12. Forbidden word entropy of cerebral oximetric values predicts postoperative neurocognitive decline in patients undergoing aortic arch surgery under deep hypothermic circulatory arrest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Dubovoy

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Up to 53% of cardiac surgery patients experience postoperative neurocognitive decline. Cerebral oximetry is designed to detect changes in cerebral tissue saturation and therefore may be useful to predict which patients are at risk of developing neurocognitive decline. Methods: This is a retrospective analysis of a prospective study originally designed to determine if treatment of cerebral oximetry desaturation is associated with improvement in postoperative cognitive dysfunction in patients undergoing aortic reconstruction under deep hypothermic circulatory arrest. Cognitive function was measured, preoperatively and 3 months postoperatively, with 15 neuropsychologic tests administered by a psychologist; the individual test scores were summed and normalized. Bilateral cerebral oximetry data were stored and analyzed using measures of entropy. Cognitive decline was defined as any decrease in the summed normalized score from baseline to 3 months. Results: Seven of 17 (41% patients suffered cognitive decline. There was no association between baseline cerebral oximetry and postoperative cognitive dysfunction. Nor were changes in oximetry values associated with cognitive decline. However, cognitive decline was associated with loss of forbidden word entropy (FwEn (correlation: Rho ρ = 0.51, P = 0.037 for left cerebral oximetry FwEn and ρ = 0.54, P = 0.025 for right cerebral oximetry FwEn. Conclusion: Postoperative cognitive decline was associated with loss of complexity of the time series as shown by a decrease in FwEn from beginning to end of the case. This suggests that regulation of cerebral oximetry is different between those who do and those who do not develop cognitive decline.

  13. Prediction of postoperative pulmonary complications in lung cancer surgery: Is proportion of emphysema important?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tevfik Ilker Akcam

    2018-01-01

    CONCLUSION: In view of these findings, Goddard's scoring for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-emphysema patients was considered likely to be an indicative parameter in the preoperative evaluation and postoperative follow-up of thoracic surgery patients.

  14. Predictive variables for postoperative pain after 520 consecutive dental extraction surgeries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bortoluzzi, Marcelo Carlos; Manfro, Aline Rosler Grings; Nodari, Rudy Jose; Presta, Andreia Antoniuk

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate postoperative pain in patients who had a single tooth or multiple erupted teeth extracted. This research evaluated 520 consecutive dental extraction surgeries in which 680 teeth were removed. Data collection was obtained through a questionnaire of patients and of the undergraduate students who performed all procedures. Pain was evaluated through qualitative self-reported scores at seven days postsurgery. An increased pain level was statistically associated with ostectomy, postoperative complications, and tobacco consumption. Pain that persisted for more than two days was statistically associated with the amount of anesthetic solution used, with a notable increase in surgical time and development of postoperative complications. Periods of pain lasting more than two days could be expected for traumatic surgeries lasting more than 30 minutes. Both severe and prolonged pain were signs of development of postoperative complications, such as alveolar osteitis and alveolar infection.

  15. [Postoperative radioiodine ablation in patients with low risk differentiated thyroid carcinoma].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díez, Juan J; Grande, Enrique; Iglesias, Pedro

    2015-01-06

    Most patients with newly diagnosed differentiated thyroid carcinoma have tumors with low risk of mortality and recurrence. Standard therapy has been total or near total thyroidectomy followed by postoperative radioiodine remnant ablation (RRA). Although RRA provides benefits, current clinical guidelines do not recommend it universally, since an increase in disease-free survival or a decrease in mortality in low risk patients has not been demonstrated so far. Advancements in our understanding of the biological behavior of thyroid cancer have been translated into the clinic in a personalized approach to the patients based on their individual risk of recurrence and mortality. Current evidence suggests that RRA is not indicated in most low-risk patients, especially those with papillary carcinomas smaller than 1cm, without extrathyroidal extension, unfavorable histology, lymph node involvement or distant metastases. Follow-up of these patients with serial measurements of serum thyroglobulin and neck ultrasound is adequate. Careful evaluation of all risk factors of clinical relevance will allow a more realistic assessment of each individual patient. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  16. Can preoperative and postoperative CA19-9 levels predict survival and early recurrence in patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun-Ke; Hu, Hai-Jie; Shrestha, Anuj; Ma, Wen-Jie; Yang, Qin; Liu, Fei; Cheng, Nan-Sheng; Li, Fu-Yu

    2017-07-11

    To investigate the predictive values of preoperative and postoperative serum CA19-9 levels on survival and other prognostic factors including early recurrence in patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma. In univariate analysis, increased preoperative and postoperative CA19-9 levels in the light of different cut-off points (37, 100, 150, 200, 400, 1000 U/ml) were significantly associated with poor survival outcomes, of which the cut-off point of 150 U/ml showed the strongest predictive value (both P 150 U/ml was significantly associated with lymph node metastasis (OR = 3.471, 95% CI 1.216-9.905; P = 0.020) and early recurrence (OR = 8.280, 95% CI 2.391-28.674; P = 0.001). Meanwhile, postoperative CA19-9 level > 150 U/ml was also correlated with early recurrence (OR = 4.006, 95% CI 1.107-14.459; P = 0.034). Ninety-eight patients who had undergone curative surgery for hilar cholangiocarcinoma between 1995 and 2014 in our institution were selected for the study. The correlations of preoperative and postoperative serum CA19-9 levels on the basis of different cut-off points with survival and various tumor factors were retrospectively analyzed with univariate and multivariate methods. In patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma, serum CA19-9 predict survival and early recurrence. Patients with increased preoperative and postoperative CA19-9 levels have poor survival outcomes and higher tendency of early recurrence.

  17. 3 Tesla MRI-negative focal epilepsies: Presurgical evaluation, postoperative outcome and predictive factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogias, Evangelos; Klingler, Jan-Helge; Urbach, Horst; Scheiwe, Christian; Schmeiser, Barbara; Doostkam, Soroush; Zentner, Josef; Altenmüller, Dirk-Matthias

    2017-12-01

    To investigate presurgical diagnostic modalities, clinical and seizure outcome as well as predictive factors after resective epilepsy surgery in 3 Tesla MRI-negative focal epilepsies. This retrospective study comprises 26 patients (11 males/15 females, mean age 34±12years, range 13-50 years) with 3 Tesla MRI-negative focal epilepsies who underwent resective epilepsy surgery. Non-invasive and invasive presurgical diagnostic modalities, type and localization of resection, clinical and epileptological outcome with a minimum follow-up of 1year (range 1-11 years, mean 2.5±2.3years) after surgery as well as outcome predictors were evaluated. All patients underwent invasive video-EEG monitoring after implantation of intracerebral depth and/or subdural electrodes. Ten patients received temporal and 16 extratemporal or multilobar (n=4) resections. There was no perioperative death or permanent morbidity. Overall, 12 of 26 patients (46%) were completely seizure-free (Engel IA) and 65% had a favorable outcome (Engel I-II). In particular, seizure-free ratio was 40% in the temporal and 50% in the extratemporal group. In the temporal group, long duration of epilepsy correlated with poor seizure outcome, whereas congruent unilateral FDG-PET hypometabolism correlated with a favorable outcome. In almost two thirds of temporal and extratemporal epilepsies defined as "non-lesional" by 3 Tesla MRI criteria, a favorable postoperative seizure outcome (Engel I-II) can be achieved with accurate multimodal presurgical evaluation including intracranial EEG recordings. In the temporal group, most favorable results were obtained when FDG-PET displayed congruent unilateral hypometabolism. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Risk factors for postoperative pancreatic fistula after laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy using stapler closure technique from one single surgeon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Xia

    Full Text Available Laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy (LDP is a safe and reliable treatment for tumors in the body and tail of the pancreas. Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF is a common complication of pancreatic surgery. Despite improvement in mortality, the rate of POPF still remains high and unsolved. To identify risk factors for POPF after laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy, clinicopathological variables on 120 patients who underwent LDP with stapler closure were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors for POPF. The rate of overall and clinically significant POPF was 30.8% and13.3%, respectively. Higher BMI (≥25kg/m2 (p-value = 0.025 and longer operative time (p-value = 0.021 were associated with overall POPF but not clinically significant POPF. Soft parenchymal texture was significantly associated with both overall (p-value = 0.012 and clinically significant POPF (p-value = 0.000. In multivariable analyses, parenchymal texture (OR, 2.933, P-value = 0.011 and operative time (OR, 1.008, P-value = 0.022 were risk factors for overall POPF. Parenchymal texture was an independent predictive factor for clinically significant POPF (OR, 7.400, P-value = 0.001.

  19. Lipoprotein metabolism indicators improve cardiovascular risk prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniël B van Schalkwijk

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease risk increases when lipoprotein metabolism is dysfunctional. We have developed a computational model able to derive indicators of lipoprotein production, lipolysis, and uptake processes from a single lipoprotein profile measurement. This is the first study to investigate whether lipoprotein metabolism indicators can improve cardiovascular risk prediction and therapy management. METHODS AND RESULTS: We calculated lipoprotein metabolism indicators for 1981 subjects (145 cases, 1836 controls from the Framingham Heart Study offspring cohort in which NMR lipoprotein profiles were measured. We applied a statistical learning algorithm using a support vector machine to select conventional risk factors and lipoprotein metabolism indicators that contributed to predicting risk for general cardiovascular disease. Risk prediction was quantified by the change in the Area-Under-the-ROC-Curve (ΔAUC and by risk reclassification (Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI and Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI. Two VLDL lipoprotein metabolism indicators (VLDLE and VLDLH improved cardiovascular risk prediction. We added these indicators to a multivariate model with the best performing conventional risk markers. Our method significantly improved both CVD prediction and risk reclassification. CONCLUSIONS: Two calculated VLDL metabolism indicators significantly improved cardiovascular risk prediction. These indicators may help to reduce prescription of unnecessary cholesterol-lowering medication, reducing costs and possible side-effects. For clinical application, further validation is required.

  20. Comparison of Postoperative Respiratory Monitoring by Acoustic and Transthoracic Impedance Technologies in Pediatric Patients at Risk of Respiratory Depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patino, Mario; Kalin, Megan; Griffin, Allison; Minhajuddin, Abu; Ding, Lili; Williams, Timothy; Ishman, Stacey; Mahmoud, Mohamed; Kurth, C Dean; Szmuk, Peter

    2017-06-01

    .9% specificity (95% CI, 0.90-1.00), 88.9% positive predictive value (95% CI, 0.73-1.00), and 72.1% negative predictive value (95% CI, 0.61-0.84), whereas the TI monitor had 68.5% sensitivity (95% CI, 0.53-0.84), 72.0% specificity (95% CI, 0.60-0.84), 59.0% positive (95% CI, 0.44-0.74), and 79.5% negative predictive value (95% CI, 0.69-0.90). In children at risk of postoperative respiratory depression, RR assessment by RAM was not different to manual counting. RAM was well tolerated, had a lower incidence of false alarms, and had better specificity and positive predictive value than TI. Rigorous evaluation of the negative predictive value is essential to determine the role of postoperative respiratory monitoring with RAM.

  1. Prevalence of and risk factors for postoperative pulmonary complications after lung cancer surgery in patients with early-stage COPD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim ES

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Eun Sun Kim,1 Young Tae Kim,2 Chang Hyun Kang,2 In Kyu Park,2 Won Bae,1 Sun Mi Choi,1 Jinwoo Lee,1 Young Sik Park,1 Chang-Hoon Lee,1 Sang-Min Lee,1 Jae-Joon Yim,1 Young Whan Kim,1 Sung Koo Han,1 Chul-Gyu Yoo1 1Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, 2Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea Purpose: This study aimed to investigate whether the prevalence of postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC is even higher in the early stages of COPD than in such patients with normal lung function and to verify the usefulness of symptom- or quality of life (QoL-based scores in predicting risk for PPCs.Patients and methods: Patients undergoing pulmonary resection for NSCLC between July 2012 and October 2014 were prospectively enrolled. Preoperative measurements of lung function, dyspnea, and QoL, operative characteristics, PPCs, duration of postoperative hospitalization, and in-hospital mortality were assessed.Results: Among 351 consecutive patients with NSCLC, 343 patients with forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1 ≥70% of predicted value were enrolled. At least one PPC occurred in 57 (16.6% patients. Prevalence of PPC was higher in patients with COPD (30.1% than in those with normal spirometry (10.0%; P<0.001. However, in patients with COPD, the prevalence of PPC was not different in patients with FEV1 ≥70% compared to those with FEV1 <70% and between group A (low risk and less symptoms and group B (low risk and more symptoms patients with COPD, based on the new Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease 2011 guidelines. In patients with COPD, body mass index (odds ratio [OR]: 0.80, P=0.007, carbon monoxide diffusing capacity of the lung (DLCO, % predicted value (OR: 0.97, P=0.024, and operation time (OR: 1.01, P=0.003, but not COPD assessment test or St

  2. Risk factors for postoperative retropharyngeal hematoma after anterior cervical spine surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Kevin R; Neuman, Brian; Peters, Colleen; Riew, K Daniel

    2014-02-15

    Retrospective review of prospective database. To investigate risk factors involved in the development of anterior cervical hematomas and determine any impact on patient outcomes. Postoperative (PO) hematomas after anterior cervical spine surgery require urgent recognition and treatment to avoid catastrophic patient morbidity or death. Current studies of PO hematomas are limited. Cervical spine surgical procedures performed on adults by the senior author at a single academic institution from 1995 to 2012 were evaluated. Demographic data, surgical history, operative data, complications, and neck disability index (NDI) scores were recorded prospectively. Cases complicated by PO hematoma were reviewed, and time until hematoma development and surgical evacuation were determined. Patients who developed a hematoma (HT group) were compared with those that did not (no-HT group) to identify risk factors. NDI outcomes were compared at early (11 mo) time points. There were 2375 anterior cervical spine surgical procedures performed with 17 occurrences (0.7%) of PO hematoma. In 11 patients (65%) the hematoma occurred within 24 hours PO, whereas 6 patients (35%) presented at an average of 6 days postoperatively. All underwent hematoma evacuation, with 2 patients (12%) requiring emergent cricothyroidotomy. Risk factors for hematoma were found to be (1) the presence of diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis (relative risk = 13.2, 95% confidence interval = 3.2-54.4), (2) presence of ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (relative risk = 6.8, 95% confidence interval = 2.3-20.6), (3) therapeutic heparin use (relative risk 148.8, 95% confidence interval = 91.3-242.5), (4) longer operative time, and (5) greater number of surgical levels. The occurrence of a PO hematoma was not found to have a significant impact on either early (HT: 30, no-HT: 28; P = 0.86) or late average NDI scores (HT: 28, no-HT 31; P = 0.76). With fast recognition and treatment, no long-term detriment

  3. Prediction of postoperative pulmonary function. Preliminary comparison of single-breath dual-energy xenon CT with three conventional methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yanagita, Hisami; Honda, Norinari; Nakayama, Mitsuo

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the use of xenon ventilation maps (Xe-images) for predicting postoperative pulmonary function. After study approval by the institutional review board, written informed consent was obtained from 30 patients with lung tumors who underwent pre- and postoperative spirometry, pulmonary perfusion single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and dual-energy CT (80 kV and 140 kV/Sn) after single-breath inspiration of 35% xenon. Xe-images were calculated by three-material decomposition. Sum of pixel values of the part to be resected (A) and of the whole lung (B) on Xe-images or lung perfusion SPECT, and volumes or the number of segments of the part to be resected (A) and of the whole lung (B) on Xe-images were enumerated, respectively. We multiplied (1-A/B) by each preoperative value from spirometry for prediction. Predictions by each of the four methods were compared with postoperative values. Predicted values for vital capacity (VC), forced vital capacity (FVC) and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV 1 ) by the four methods regressed significantly with measured values (R 2 =0.56-0.77, p 1 with accuracy comparable to that of CT volumetry. (author)

  4. Gender as a risk factor for adverse intraoperative and postoperative outcomes of elective pancreatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazmudar, Aditya; Vitello, Dominic; Chapman, Mackenzie; Tomlinson, James S; Bentrem, David J

    2017-02-01

    Patient selection remains paramount when developing and adopting quality-based assessment and reimbursement models, and enhanced recovery protocols. Gender is a patient characteristic known before surgery which can inform risk stratification. Our aim was to evaluate the effect of gender on intraoperative blood transfusions, operative time, length of hospital stay, estimated blood loss (EBL) as well as postoperative surgical site infections (SSIs), and mortality. Patients undergoing elective pancreatectomy from 2005 to 2013 were identified in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) and Northwestern institutional databases. Multivariable analyses were conducted to identify the association between gender and these outcomes. Analyses demonstrated that male gender was independently associated with blood transfusion (OR 1.23), operative time >6 hr (OR 1.76), length of stay greater than 11 days (OR 1.17), and all-type SSIs (OR 1.17), especially superficial SSIs (OR 1.15) and organ space SSIs (OR 1.18). Analysis of the institutional cohort found that male gender was independently associated with increased odds of EBL > 1 L for Whipple procedures (OR 2.85). Male gender is a significant predictor of increased operative time, length of stay, transfusions, EBL > 1L, as well as postoperative organ space surgical site infections in these patients. J. Surg. Oncol. 2017;115:131-136. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  6. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  7. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  8. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  9. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  10. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  11. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  12. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  13. Developmental Dyslexia: Predicting Individual Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Paul A.; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M.; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. Methods: The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6…

  14. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  15. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  16. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  17. A Novel Risk Scoring System Reliably Predicts Readmission Following Pancreatectomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valero, Vicente; Grimm, Joshua C.; Kilic, Arman; Lewis, Russell L.; Tosoian, Jeffrey J.; He, Jin; Griffin, James; Cameron, John L.; Weiss, Matthew J.; Vollmer, Charles M.; Wolfgang, Christopher L.

    2015-01-01

    Background Postoperative readmissions have been proposed by Medicare as a quality metric and may impact provider reimbursement. Since readmission following pancreatectomy is common, we sought to identify factors associated with readmission in order to establish a predictive risk scoring system (RSS). Study Design A retrospective analysis of 2,360 pancreatectomies performed at nine, high-volume pancreatic centers between 2005 and 2011 was performed. Forty-five factors strongly associated with readmission were identified. To derive and validate a RSS, the population was randomly divided into two cohorts in a 4:1 fashion. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed and scores were assigned based on the relative odds ratio of each independent predictor. A composite Readmission After Pancreatectomy (RAP) score was generated and then stratified to create risk groups. Results Overall, 464 (19.7%) patients were readmitted within 90-days. Eight pre- and postoperative factors, including prior myocardial infarction (OR 2.03), ASA Class ≥ 3 (OR 1.34), dementia (OR 6.22), hemorrhage (OR 1.81), delayed gastric emptying (OR 1.78), surgical site infection (OR 3.31), sepsis (OR 3.10) and short length of stay (OR 1.51), were independently predictive of readmission. The 32-point RAP score generated from the derivation cohort was highly predictive of readmission in the validation cohort (AUC 0.72). The low (0-3), intermediate (4-7) and high risk (>7) groups correlated to 11.7%, 17.5% and 45.4% observed readmission rates, respectively (preadmission following pancreatectomy. Identification of patients with increased risk of readmission using the RAP score will allow efficient resource allocation aimed to attenuate readmission rates. It also has potential to serve as a new metric for comparative research and quality assessment. PMID:25797757

  18. Cardiovascular risk prediction in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dis, van S.J.

    2011-01-01

    Background: In clinical practice, Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk prediction functions and charts are used to identify persons at high risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD), who are considered eligible for drug treatment of elevated blood pressure and serum cholesterol. These

  19. Role of preoperative anemia for risk of transfusion and postoperative morbidity in fast-track hip and knee arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jans, Øivind; Jørgensen, Christoffer; Kehlet, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Preoperative anemia has been associated with increased risk of allogeneic blood transfusion and postoperative morbidity and mortality. The prevalence of preoperative anemia and its association with postoperative outcomes has not previously been reported in relation to fast......-track elective total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of preoperative anemia in elective fast-track THA and TKA and its association with risk of perioperative transfusion, prolonged length of hospital stay (LOS), and postoperative readmission. STUDY...... national databases and patient charts. Adjusted risk estimates for transfusion, prolonged LOS, and all-cause readmission according to preoperative anemia status were obtained by multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 5.165 THA or TKA procedures were included with a mean patient age of 67...

  20. Postoperative Chemotherapy Followed by Conformal Concomitant Chemoradiotherapy in High-Risk Gastric Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quero, Laurent; Bouchbika, Zineb; Kouto, Honorine; Baruch-Hennequin, Valerie; Gornet, Jean-Marc; Munoz, Nicolas; Cojean-Zelek, Isabelle; Houdart, Remi; Panis, Yves; Valleur, Patrice; Aparicio, Thomas; Maylin, Claude; Hennequin, Christophe

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To analyze the efficacy, toxicity, and pattern of relapse after adjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy followed by three-dimensional irradiation and concomitant LV5FU2 chemotherapy (high-dose leucovorin and 5-fluorouracil bolus plus continuous infusion) in the treatment of completely resected high-risk gastric cancer. Methods and Materials: This was a retrospective analysis of 52 patients with high-risk gastric cancer initially treated by total/partial gastrectomy and lymphadenectomy between January 2002 and June 2007. Median age was 54 years (range, 36–75 years). Postoperative treatment consisted of 5-fluorouracil and cisplatin chemotherapy. Adjuvant chemotherapy was followed by three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy in the tumor bed and regional lymph nodes at 4500 cGy/25 fractions in association with concomitant chemotherapy. Concomitant chemotherapy consisted of a 2-h infusion of leucovorin (200 mg/m²) followed by a bolus of 5-fluorouracil (400 mg/m²) and then a 44-h continuous infusion of 5-fluorouracil (2400–3600 mg/m²) given every 14 days, for three cycles (LV5FU2 protocol). Results: Five-year overall and disease-free survival were 50% and 48%, respectively. Distant metastases and peritoneal spread were the most frequent sites of relapse (37% each). After multivariate analysis, only pathologic nodal status was significantly associated with disease-free and overall survival. Acute toxicities were essentially gastrointestinal and hematologic. One myocardial infarction and one pulmonary embolism were also reported. Eighteen patients had a radiotherapy program interruption because of acute toxicity. All patients but 2 have completed radiotherapy. Conclusion: Postoperative cisplatin-based chemotherapy followed by conformal radiotherapy in association with concurrent 5-fluorouracil seemed to be feasible and resulted in successful locoregional control.

  1. Prediction of eyespot infection risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Váòová

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study was to design a prediction model for eyespot (Tapesia yallundae infection based on climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, air humidity. Data from experiment years 1994-2002 were used to study correlations between the eyespot infection index and individual weather characteristics. The model of prediction was constructed using multiple regression when a separate parameter is assigned to each factor, i.e. the frequency of days with optimum temperatures, humidity, and precipitation. The correlation between relative air humidity and precipitation and the infection index is significant.

  2. Prediction of post-operative pain after a laparoscopic tubal ligation procedure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rudin, A.; Wolner-Hanssen, P.; Hellbom, M.

    2008-01-01

    ligation procedure. METHODS: Assessments of anxiety, mood, psychological vulnerability and pre-operative pain were made before surgery using the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), the Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale (HADS), a psychological vulnerability test and the Short-Form McGill Pain......BACKGROUND: Pre-operative identification of reliable predictors of post-operative pain may lead to improved pain management strategies. We investigated the correlation between pre-operative pain, psychometric variables, response to heat stimuli and post-operative pain following a laparoscopic tubal...... Questionnaire (SF-MPQ), respectively. Pre-operative assessments of thermal thresholds and pain response to randomized series of heat stimuli (1 s, 44-48 degrees C) were made with quantitative sensory testing technique. Post-operative pain intensity was evaluated daily by a visual analogue scale during rest...

  3. Anatomical characteristics of pulmonary veins for the prediction of postoperative recurrence after radiofrequency catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Wei

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The relationship between focal pulmonary vein potential and atrial fibrillation (AF has been confirmed. Pulmonary vein (PV isolation and circumferential pulmonary vein ablation have been the most commonly used procedures of radiofrequency ablation. However, few studies have investigated the relationship between anatomical characteristics of PV and AF recurrences after radiofrequency ablation. METHODOLOGY: For 267 AF patients treated by radiofrequency catheter ablation, the anatomic structure characteristics of pulmonary veins were assessed by multi-slice spiral computed tomography while the values of left atrial diameter (LAD were measured with transesophageal ultrasonic cardiogram. After radiofrequency catheter ablation, postoperative recurrence was evaluated during a 10-month term follow-up. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: During follow-up, postoperative recurrence occurred in 44 patients. The mean diameters of LAD, left superior PV, right superior PV, all left PV, and all superior PV were significantly larger in patients with postoperative recurrence (Recurrence vs. Non-recurrence group; 43.9 ± 6.4 mm vs. 40.7 ± 5.6 mm; 18.4 ± 2.1 mm vs. 17.1 ± 3.1 mm; 18.2 ± 2.8 mm vs. 17.2 mm ± 3.9 mm; 16.4 ± 1.5 mm vs. 15.6 ± 2.5 mm; 18.3 ± 2.1 mm vs. 17.1 ± 3.0 mm; respectively; all P < 0.05. Multivariable survival analysis showed that the type and the course of AF, LAD, and the diameters of all superior PV were the independent risk factors for the postoperative recurrence after radiofrequency catheter ablation. CONCLUSIONS: The enlargements of all superior PV and LAD, long course of diseases, and persistent AF were the independent risk factors for the postoperative recurrence after radiofrequency catheter ablation.

  4. Risk factors for development of postoperative cerebellar mutism syndrome in children after medulloblastoma surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pols, San Y C V; van Veelen, Marie Lise C; Aarsen, Femke K; Gonzalez Candel, Antonia; Catsman-Berrevoets, Coriene E

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE Postoperative cerebellar mutism syndrome (pCMS) occurs in 7%-50% of children after cerebellar tumor surgery. Typical features include a latent onset of 1-2 days after surgery, transient mutism, emotional lability, and a wide variety of motor and neurobehavioral abnormalities. Sequelae of this syndrome usually persist long term. The principal causal factor is bilateral surgical damage (regardless of tumor location) to any component of the proximal efferent cerebellar pathway, which leads to temporary dysfunction of cerebral cortical regions as a result of diaschisis. Tumor type, cerebellar midline location, and brainstem involvement are risk factors for pCMS that have been identified repeatedly, but they do not explain its latent onset. Ambiguous or negative results for other factors, such as hydrocephalus, postoperative meningitis, length of vermian incision, and tumor size, have been reached. The aim of this study was to identify perioperative clinical, radiological, and laboratory factors that also increase risk for the development of pCMS. The focus was on factors that might explain the delayed onset of pCMS and thus might provide a time window for taking precautionary measures to prevent pCMS or reduce its severity. The study was focused specifically on children who had undergone surgery for medulloblastoma. METHODS In this single-center retrospective cohort study, the authors included 71 children with medulloblastoma, 28 of whom developed pCMS after primary resection. Clinical and laboratory data were collected prospectively and analyzed systematically. Variables were included for univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS Univariate regression analysis revealed 7 variables that had a significant influence on pCMS onset, namely, tumor size, maximum tumor diameter > 5 cm, tumor infiltration or compression of the brainstem, significantly larger decreases in hemoglobin (p = 0.010) and hematocrit (p = 0.003) in the pCMS group after surgery than in the

  5. Preoperative automated fibre quantification predicts postoperative seizure outcome in temporal lobe epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Simon S; Glenn, G Russell; Weber, Bernd; Kreilkamp, Barbara A K; Jensen, Jens H; Helpern, Joseph A; Wagner, Jan; Barker, Gareth J; Richardson, Mark P; Bonilha, Leonardo

    2017-01-01

    Approximately one in every two patients with pharmacoresistant temporal lobe epilepsy will not be rendered completely seizure-free after temporal lobe surgery. The reasons for this are unknown and are likely to be multifactorial. Quantitative volumetric magnetic resonance imaging techniques have provided limited insight into the causes of persistent postoperative seizures in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy. The relationship between postoperative outcome and preoperative pathology of white matter tracts, which constitute crucial components of epileptogenic networks, is unknown. We investigated regional tissue characteristics of preoperative temporal lobe white matter tracts known to be important in the generation and propagation of temporal lobe seizures in temporal lobe epilepsy, using diffusion tensor imaging and automated fibre quantification. We studied 43 patients with mesial temporal lobe epilepsy associated with hippocampal sclerosis and 44 healthy controls. Patients underwent preoperative imaging, amygdalohippocampectomy and postoperative assessment using the International League Against Epilepsy seizure outcome scale. From preoperative imaging, the fimbria-fornix, parahippocampal white matter bundle and uncinate fasciculus were reconstructed, and scalar diffusion metrics were calculated along the length of each tract. Altogether, 51.2% of patients were rendered completely seizure-free and 48.8% continued to experience postoperative seizure symptoms. Relative to controls, both patient groups exhibited strong and significant diffusion abnormalities along the length of the uncinate bilaterally, the ipsilateral parahippocampal white matter bundle, and the ipsilateral fimbria-fornix in regions located within the medial temporal lobe. However, only patients with persistent postoperative seizures showed evidence of significant pathology of tract sections located in the ipsilateral dorsal fornix and in the contralateral parahippocampal white matter bundle

  6. Prediction of postoperative morbidity, mortality and rehabilitation in hip fracture patients: the cumulated ambulation score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foss, Nicolai Bang; Kristensen, Morten Tange; Kehlet, Henrik

    2006-01-01

    fracture patients with an independent walking function admitted from their own home. Rehabilitation followed a well-defined multimodal rehabilitation regimen and discharge criteria. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Admission tests with a new mobility score to assess prefracture functional mobility and a short mental......OBJECTIVE: To validate the cumulated ambulation score as an early postoperative predictor of short-term outcome in hip fracture patients. DESIGN: Prospective, descriptive study. SETTING: An orthopaedic hip fracture unit in a university hospital. PATIENTS: Four hundred and twenty-six consecutive hip...... of short-term postoperative outcome after hip fracture surgery....

  7. Perioperative risk factors for postoperative pneumonia after major oral cancer surgery: A retrospective analysis of 331 cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jieyun; Hu, Jing; Yu, Pei; Wang, Weiwang; Hu, Xingxue; Hou, Jinsong; Fang, Silian; Liu, Xiqiang

    2017-01-01

    Postoperative pneumonia (POP) is common and results in prolonged hospital stays, higher costs, increased morbidity and mortality. However, data on the incidence and risk factors of POP after oral and maxillofacial surgery are rare. This study aims to identify perioperative risk factors for POP after major oral cancer (OC) surgery. Perioperative data and patient records of 331 consecutive subjects were analyzed in the period of April 2014 to March 2016. We individually traced each OC patient for a period to discharge from the hospital or 45 days after surgery, whichever occur later. The incidence of POP after major OC surgery with free flap construction or major OC surgery was 11.6% or 4.5%, respectively. Patient-related risk factors for POP were male sex, T stage, N stage, clinical stage and preoperative serum albumin level. Among the investigated procedure-related variables, incision grade, mandibulectomy, free flap reconstruction, tracheotomy, intraoperative blood loss, and the length of the operation were shown to be associated with the development of POP. Postoperative hospital stay was also significantly related to increased incidence of POP. Using a multivariable logistic regression model, we identified male sex, preoperative serum albumin level, operation time and postoperative hospital stay as independent risk factors for POP. Several perioperative risk factors can be identified that are associated with POP. At-risk oral cancer patients should be subjected to intensified postoperative pulmonary care.

  8. Perioperative risk factors for postoperative pneumonia after major oral cancer surgery: A retrospective analysis of 331 cases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jieyun Xu

    Full Text Available Postoperative pneumonia (POP is common and results in prolonged hospital stays, higher costs, increased morbidity and mortality. However, data on the incidence and risk factors of POP after oral and maxillofacial surgery are rare. This study aims to identify perioperative risk factors for POP after major oral cancer (OC surgery.Perioperative data and patient records of 331 consecutive subjects were analyzed in the period of April 2014 to March 2016. We individually traced each OC patient for a period to discharge from the hospital or 45 days after surgery, whichever occur later.The incidence of POP after major OC surgery with free flap construction or major OC surgery was 11.6% or 4.5%, respectively. Patient-related risk factors for POP were male sex, T stage, N stage, clinical stage and preoperative serum albumin level. Among the investigated procedure-related variables, incision grade, mandibulectomy, free flap reconstruction, tracheotomy, intraoperative blood loss, and the length of the operation were shown to be associated with the development of POP. Postoperative hospital stay was also significantly related to increased incidence of POP. Using a multivariable logistic regression model, we identified male sex, preoperative serum albumin level, operation time and postoperative hospital stay as independent risk factors for POP.Several perioperative risk factors can be identified that are associated with POP. At-risk oral cancer patients should be subjected to intensified postoperative pulmonary care.

  9. Oral surgery in patients under antithrombotic therapy: perioperative bleeding as a significant risk factor for postoperative hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, Amanda L; Souza, Alessandra F; Martins, Maria A P; Fraga, Marina G; Travassos, Denise V; Oliveira, Ana C B; Ribeiro, Daniel D; Silva, Tarcília A

    2018-01-01

    : To investigate perioperative and postoperative bleeding, complications in patients under therapy with anticoagulant or antiplatelet drugs submitted to oral surgery. To evaluate the risk of bleeding and safety for dental surgery, a retrospective chart review was performed. Medical and dental records of patients taking oral antithrombotic drugs undergoing dental surgery between 2010 and 2015 were reviewed. Results were statistically analyzed using Fisher's exact test, t test or the χ test. One hundred and seventy-nine patients underwent 293 surgical procedures. A total of eight cases of perioperative and 12 episodes of postoperative bleeding were documented. The complications were generally managed with local measures and did not require hospitalization. We found significant association of postoperative hemorrhage with increased perioperative bleeding (P = 0.043) and combination of anticoagulant and antiplatelet therapy (P bleeding is 8.8 times bigger than procedures without perioperative bleeding. Dental surgery in patients under antithrombotic therapy might be carried out without altering the regimen because of low risk of perioperative and postoperative bleeding. However, patients with increased perioperative bleeding should be closely followed up because of postoperative complications risk.

  10. Postoperative radiation therapy after hip replacement in high-risk patients for development of heterotopic bone formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashem, R.; Rene, N.; Souhami, L.; Tanzer, M.; Evans, M.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose. - To report the results of postoperative radiation therapy in preventing the development of heterotopic bone formation after hip replacement surgery in high-risk patients. Patients and methods. - Between 1991 and 2007, 44 patients were preventively treated with postoperative RT after total hip replacement. In total, 47 hips were treated. All patients were considered at high risk for developing heterotopic bone formation. Most patients (63.5%) were treated because of a history of severe osteoarthritis or ankylosing spondylitis. All patients were treated with shaped parallel-opposed fields with a single fraction of 7 Gy using 6 or 18 MV photons. Most patients (94%) received radiation therapy within 72 hours postoperative and in only three patients radiation therapy was delivered after 72 hours post-surgery (5-8 days). Results. - Minimum follow-up was 1 year. There were 18 females and 26 males. Median age was 63 years (range: 18-80). Treatments were well tolerated and no acute toxicity was seen post-radiation therapy. Only one of the 47 hips (2%) developed heterotopic bone formation. This patient received postoperative radiation therapy to both hips but only developed heterotopic bone formation in one of them. None of the three patients treated beyond 72 hours failed. To date no late toxicity has been observed. Conclusion. - The use of postoperative radiation therapy was an effective and safe treatment in the prevention of heterotopic bone formation in a high-risk group of patients undergoing total hip replacement. (authors)

  11. Duration of post-operative hypocortisolism predicts sustained remission after pituitary surgery for Cushing’s disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prachi Bansal

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Transsphenoidal surgery (TSS is the primary treatment modality for Cushing’s disease (CD. However, the predictors of post-operative remission and recurrence remain debatable. Thus, we studied the post-operative remission and long-term recurrence rates, as well as their respective predictive factors. Methods: A retrospective analysis of case records of 230 CD patients who underwent primary microscopic TSS at our tertiary care referral centre between 1987 and 2015 was undertaken. Demographic features, pre- and post-operative hormonal values, MRI findings, histopathological features and follow-up data were recorded. Remission and recurrence rates as well as their respective predictive factors were studied. Results: Overall, the post-operative remission rate was 65.6% (early remission 46%; delayed remission 19.6%, while the recurrence rate was 41% at mean follow-up of 74 ± 61.1 months (12–270 months. Significantly higher early remission rates were observed in patients with microadenoma vs macroadenoma (51.7% vs 30.6%, P = 0.005 and those with unequivocal vs equivocal MRI for microadenoma (55.8% vs 38.5%, P = 0.007. Patients with invasive macroadenoma had poorer (4.5% vs 45%, P = 0.001 remission rates. Recurrence rates were higher in patients with delayed remission than those with early remission (61.5% vs 30.8%, P = 0.001. Duration of post-operative hypocortisolemia ≥13 months predicted sustained remission with 100% specificity and 46.4% sensitivity. Recurrence could be detected significantly earlier (27.7 vs 69.2 months, P < 0.001 in patients with available serial follow-up biochemistry as compared to those with infrequent follow-up after remission. Conclusion: In our study, remission and recurrence rates were similar to that of reported literature, but proportion of delayed remission was relatively higher. Negative/equivocal MRI findings and presence of macroadenoma, especially those with cavernous sinus invasion were

  12. Clinical Factors Predicting Late Severe Urinary Toxicity After Postoperative Radiotherapy for Prostate Carcinoma: A Single-Institute Analysis of 742 Patients

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    Cozzarini, Cesare, E-mail: cozzarini.cesare@hsr.it [Department of Radiotherapy, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan (Italy); Fiorino, Claudio [Department of Medical Physics, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan (Italy); Da Pozzo, Luigi Filippo [Department of Urology, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan (Italy); Alongi, Filippo; Berardi, Genoveffa; Bolognesi, Angelo [Department of Radiotherapy, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan (Italy); Briganti, Alberto [Department of Urology, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan (Italy); Broggi, Sara [Department of Medical Physics, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan (Italy); Deli, Aniko [Department of Radiotherapy, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan (Italy); Guazzoni, Giorgio [Department of Urology, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan (Italy); Perna, Lucia [Department of Medical Physics, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan (Italy); Pasetti, Marcella; Salvadori, Giovannella [Department of Radiotherapy, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan (Italy); Montorsi, Francesco; Rigatti, Patrizio [Department of Urology, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan (Italy); Di Muzio, Nadia [Department of Radiotherapy, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan (Italy)

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate the clinical factors independently predictive of long-term severe urinary sequelae after postprostatectomy radiotherapy. Patients and Methods: Between 1993 and 2005, 742 consecutive patients underwent postoperative radiotherapy with either adjuvant (n = 556; median radiation dose, 70.2 Gy) or salvage (n = 186; median radiation dose, 72 Gy) intent. Results: After a median follow-up of 99 months, the 8-year risk of Grade 2 or greater and Grade 3 late urinary toxicity was almost identical (23.9% vs. 23.7% and 12% vs. 10%) in the adjuvant and salvage cohorts, respectively. On univariate analysis, acute toxicity was significantly predictive of late Grade 2 or greater sequelae in both subgroups (p <.0001 in both cases), and hypertension (p = .02) and whole-pelvis radiotherapy (p = .02) correlated significantly in the adjuvant cohort only. The variables predictive of late Grade 3 sequelae were acute Grade 2 or greater toxicity in both groups and whole-pelvis radiotherapy (8-year risk of Grade 3 events, 21% vs. 11%, p = .007), hypertension (8-year risk, 18% vs. 10%, p = .005), age {<=} 62 years at RT (8-year risk, 16% vs. 11%, p = .04) in the adjuvant subset, and radiation dose >72 Gy (8-year risk, 19% vs. 6%, p = .007) and age >71 years (8-year risk, 16% vs. 6%, p = .006) in the salvage subgroup. Multivariate analysis confirmed the independent predictive role of all the covariates indicated as statistically significant on univariate analysis. Conclusions: The risk of late Grade 2 or greater and Grade 3 urinary toxicity was almost identical, regardless of the RT intent. In the salvage cohort, older age and greater radiation doses resulted in a worse toxicity profile, and younger, hypertensive patients experienced a greater rate of severe late sequelae in the adjuvant setting. The causes of this latter correlation and apparently different etiopathogenesis of chronic damage in the two subgroups were unclear and deserve additional investigation.

  13. Comparison of ramosetron with ondansetron for the prevention of post-operative nausea and vomiting in high-risk patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandip Agarkar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: Post-operative nausea and vomiting (PONV has an 80% incidence in high-risk patients. This is despite the availability of several antiemetic drugs. Selective 5-hydroxytryptamine type 3 (5-HT 3 receptor antagonists are considered first-line for prophylaxis, ondansetron being the most commonly used agent. Ramosetron, another selective 5-HT 3 receptor antagonist, is more potent and longer acting than ondansetron. This study was conducted to evaluate the antiemetic efficacy of ramosetron in comparison with ondansetron in patients at a high risk of PONV. Methods: This was a prospective randomised double-blind study carried out over a 6-month period in which 206 patients with at least two risk factors for PONV were randomised to receive ramosetron 0.3 mg or ondansetron 8 mg, 30 min before the end of surgery. The incidence of PONV, severity of nausea and need for rescue antiemetic were recorded over the next 24 h. Primary outcome was the incidence of PONV. Secondary outcomes included severity of nausea and need for rescue. The data were analysed using the Predictive Analytics Software (PASW, version 18: Chicago, IL, USA. Results: The incidence of PONV was found to be 35% in the ramosetron group as opposed to 43.7% in the ondansetron group (P = 0.199. Need for rescue antiemetic was 23.3% in the ramosetron group and 32% in the ondansetron group (P = 0.156 in the 24 h following surgery. Conclusion: Ramosetron 0.3 mg and ondansetron 8 mg were equally effective in reducing the incidence of PONV in high risk patients.

  14. Postoperative Clinical Outcome and Risk Factors for Poor Outcome of Foraminal and Extraforaminal Lumbar Disc Herniation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Jung Sik; Kang, Kyung Hee; Park, Jeong Hyun; Lim, Jae Hyeon; Jang, Il Tae

    2016-03-01

    We evaluated postoperative outcomes in patients who have lumbar foraminal or extraforaminal disc herniation (FELDH) and suggested the risk factors for poor outcomes. A total of 234 patients were selected for this study. Pre- and post-operative Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) and Korean version Oswestry Disability Index (KODI) were evaluated and the changes of both score were calculated. Outcome was defined as excellent, good, fair, and poor based on Mcnab classification. The percentage of superior facetectomy was calculated by using the Maro-view 5.4 Picture Archiving Communication System (PACS). Paramedian lumbar discectomy was performed in 180 patients and combined lumbar discectomy was performed in 54 patients. Paramedian lumbar discectomy group showed better outcome compared with combined discectomy group. p value of VAS change was 0.009 and KODI was 0.013. The average percentage of superior facetectomy was 33% (range, 0-79%) and it showed negative correlation with VAS and KODI changes (Pearson coefficient : -0.446 and -0.498, respectively). Excellent or good outcome cases (Group I) were 136 (58.1%) and fair or poor outcome cases (Group II) were 98 (41.9%). The percentage of superior facetectomy was 26.5% at Group I and 42.5% at Group II. There was significant difference in superior facetectomy percentage between Group I and II (p=0.000). This study demonstrated that paramedian lumbar discectomy with preservation of facet joints is an effective and good procedure for FELDH. At least 60% of facet should be preserved for excellent or good outcomes.

  15. Postoperative subdural hygroma and chronic subdural hematoma after unruptured aneurysm surgery: age, sex, and aneurysm location as independent risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jaechan; Cho, Jae-Hoon; Goh, Duck-Ho; Kang, Dong-Hun; Shin, Im Hee; Hamm, In-Suk

    2016-02-01

    This study investigated the incidence and risk factors for the postoperative occurrence of subdural complications, such as a subdural hygroma and resultant chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH), following surgical clipping of an unruptured aneurysm. The critical age affecting such occurrences and follow-up results were also examined. The case series included 364 consecutive patients who underwent aneurysm clipping via a pterional or superciliary keyhole approach for an unruptured saccular aneurysm in the anterior cerebral circulation between 2007 and 2013. The subdural hygromas were identified based on CT scans 6-9 weeks after surgery, and the volumes were measured using volumetry studies. Until their complete resolution, all the subdural hygromas were followed using CT scans every 1-2 months. Meanwhile, the CSDHs were classified as nonoperative or operative lesions that were treated by bur-hole drainage. The age and sex of the patients, aneurysm location, history of a subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), and surgical approach (pterional vs superciliary) were all analyzed regarding the postoperative occurrence of a subdural hygroma or CSDH. The follow-up results of the subdural complications were also investigated. Seventy patients (19.2%) developed a subdural hygroma or CSDH. The results of a multivariate analysis showed that advanced age (p = 0.003), male sex (p 60 years, which achieved a 70% sensitivity and 69% specificity with regard to predicting such subdural complications. The female patients ≤ 60 years of age showed a negligible incidence of subdural complications for all aneurysm groups, whereas the male patients > 60 years of age showed the highest incidence of subdural complications at 50%-100%, according to the aneurysm location. The subdural hygromas detected 6-9 weeks postoperatively showed different follow-up results, according to the severity. The subdural hygromas that converted to a CSDH were larger in volume than the subdural hygromas that resolved

  16. Neuronal damage biomarkers in the identification of patients at risk of long-term postoperative cognitive dysfunction after cardiac surgery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, W F; Koerts, Janneke; Tucha, O; Scheeren, T W L; Absalom, A R

    Biomarkers of neurological injury can potentially predict postoperative cognitive dysfunction. We aimed to identify whether classical neuronal damage-specific biomarkers, including brain fatty acid-binding protein, neuron-specific enolase and S100 calcium-binding protein β, as well as plasma-free

  17. Postoperative Paralysis From Thoracic Ossification of Posterior Longitudinal Ligament Surgery Risk Factor of Neurologic Injury: Nationwide Multiinstitution Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Zenya; Matsuyama, Yukihiro; Ando, Muneharu; Kawabata, Shigenori; Kanchiku, Tsukasa; Kida, Kazunobu; Fujiwara, Yasushi; Yamada, Kei; Yamamoto, Naoya; Kobayashi, Sho; Saito, Takanori; Wada, Kanichiro; Tadokoro, Nobuaki; Takahashi, Masato; Satomi, Kazuhiko; Shinomiya, Kenichi; Tani, Toshikazu

    2016-10-01

    Retrospective case-control study. The purpose of this study was to examine the factors of postoperative paralysis in patients who have undergone thoracic ossification of posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) surgery. A higher percentage of thoracic OPLL patients experience postoperative aggravation of paralysis than cervical OPLL patients, including patients that presented great difficulties in treatment. However, there were a few reports to prevent paralysis thoracic OPLL. The 156 patients who had received thoracic OPLL surgery were selected as the subjects of this study. The items for review were the duration of disease; the preoperative muscle strength (Muscle Manual Testing); OPLL levels (T1/2-4/5: high, T5/6-8/9: middle, and T9/10-11/12: low); the spinal canal occupancy ratio; the ratio of yellow ligament ossification as a complication; the ratio of transcranial-motor evoked potential (Tc-MEP) derivation; the preoperative/postoperative kyphotic angles in the thoracic vertebrae; the correction angle of kyphosis; the duration of surgery; and the amount of bleeding. The subjects were divided into two groups based on the absence or presence of postoperative paralysis to determine the factors of postoperative paralysis. Twenty-three patients (14.7%) exhibited postoperative paralysis. Multivariate analysis identified factors associated with postoperative paralysis: the duration of disease (odds ratio, OR = 3.3); the correction angle of kyphosis (OR = 2.4); and the ratio of Tc-MEP derivation (OR = 2.2). The risk factors of postoperative paralysis are a short duration of disease and a small correction angle of kyphosis. In addition, ratios of Tc-MEP derivation below 50% may anticipate paralysis. 4.

  18. Preoperative and postoperative serial assessments of postural balance and fall risk in patients with arthroscopic anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gokalp, Oguzhan; Akkaya, Semih; Akkaya, Nuray; Buker, Nihal; Gungor, Harun R; Ok, Nusret; Yorukoglu, Cagdas

    2016-04-27

    Impaired postural balance due to somatosensory data loss with mechanical instability has been shown in patients with ACL deficiency. To assess postural balance in patients with ACL insufficiency prior to surgery and following reconstruction with serial evaluations. Thirty patients (mean age of 27.7 ± 6.7 years) who underwent arthroscopic reconstruction of ACL with bone-patellar tendon-bone autograft were examined for clinical and functional variables at preoperative day and postoperative 12th week. Posturographic analysis were performed by using Tetrax Interactive Balance System (Sunlight Medical Ltd, Israel) at preoperative day, at 4th, 8th, and 12th weeks following reconstruction. Data computed by posturographic software by the considerations of the oscillation velocities of body sways is fall risk as a numeric value (0-100, lower values indicate better condition). All of the patients (mean age of 27.7 ± 6.7 years) had significant improvements for clinical, functional evaluations and fall risk (pfall risk was within high-risk category (59.9 ± 22.8) preoperatively. The highest fall risk was detected at postoperative 4th week. Patients had high fall risk at 8th week similar to preoperative value. Mean fall risk decreased to low level risk at 12th week. Preoperative symptom duration had relationships with preoperative fall risk and postoperative improvement of fall risk (p= 0.001, r= -0.632, p= 0.001, r= -0.870, respectively). The improvement of fall risk was higher in patients with symptoms shorter than 6 months (p= 0.001). According to these results, mean fall risk of patients with ACL insufficiency was within high risk category preoperatively, and fall risk improves after surgical reconstruction, but as the duration of complaints lengthens especially longer than 6 months, the improvement of fall risk decreases following reconstruction.

  19. Postoperative Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy Versus Postoperative Radiotherapy in High-Risk Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck: The Randomized Phase III TROG 05.01 Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porceddu, Sandro Virgilio; Bressel, Mathias; Poulsen, Michael Geoffrey; Stoneley, Adam; Veness, Michael John; Kenny, Lizbeth Moira; Wratten, Chris; Corry, June; Cooper, Stephen; Fogarty, Gerald Blaise; Collins, Marnie; Collins, Michael Kevin; Macann, Andrew Martin John; Milross, Christopher Gerard; Penniment, Michael Gordon; Liu, Howard Yu-Hao; King, Madeleine Trudy; Panizza, Benedict James; Rischin, Danny

    2018-05-01

    Purpose To report the results of the Trans Tasman Radiation Oncology Group randomized phase III trial designed to determine whether the addition of concurrent chemotherapy to postoperative radiotherapy (CRT) improved locoregional control in patients with high-risk cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck. Patients and Methods The primary objective was to determine whether there was a difference in freedom from locoregional relapse (FFLRR) between 60 or 66 Gy (6 to 6.5 weeks) with or without weekly carboplatin (area under the curve 2) after resection of gross disease. Secondary efficacy objectives were to compare disease-free survival and overall survival. Results Three hundred twenty-one patients were randomly assigned, with 310 patients commencing allocated treatment (radiotherapy [RT] alone, n = 157; CRT, n = 153). Two hundred thirty-eight patients (77%) had high-risk nodal disease, 59 (19%) had high-risk primary or in-transit disease, and 13 (4%) had both. Median follow-up was 60 months. Median RT dose was 60 Gy, with 84% of patients randomly assigned to CRT completing six cycles of carboplatin. The 2- and 5-year FFLRR rates were 88% (95% CI, 83% to 93%) and 83% (95% CI, 77% to 90%), respectively, for RT and 89% (95% CI, 84% to 94%) and 87% (95% CI, 81% to 93%; hazard ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.46 to 1.55; P = .58), respectively, for CRT. There were no significant differences in disease-free or overall survival. Locoregional failure was the most common site of first treatment failure, with isolated distant metastases as the first site of failure seen in 7% of both arms. Treatment was well tolerated in both arms, with no observed enhancement of RT toxicity with carboplatin. Grade 3 or 4 late toxicities were infrequent. Conclusion Although surgery and postoperative RT provided excellent FFLRR, there was no observed benefit with the addition of weekly carboplatin.

  20. Prognostic nutritional index predicts postoperative complications and long-term outcomes of gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Nan; Deng, Jing-Yu; Ding, Xue-Wei; Ke, Bin; Liu, Ning; Zhang, Ru-Peng; Liang, Han

    2014-08-14

    To investigate the impact of prognostic nutritional index (PNI) on the postoperative complications and long-term outcomes in gastric cancer patients undergoing total gastrectomy. The data for 386 patients with gastric cancer were extracted and analyzed between January 2003 and December 2008 in our center. The patients were divided into two groups according to the cutoff value of the PNI: those with a PNI ≥ 46 and those with a PNI gastric cancer patients.

  1. Perforated Peptic Ulcer Repair: Factors Predicting Conversion in Laparoscopy and Postoperative Septic Complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, Markus K; Wrann, Simon; Widmer, Jeannette; Klasen, Jennifer; Weber, Markus; Hahnloser, Dieter

    2016-09-01

    The surgical treatment for perforated peptic ulcers can be safely performed laparoscopically. The aim of the study was to define simple predictive factors for conversion and septic complications. This retrospective case-control study analyzed patients treated with either laparoscopic surgery or laparotomy for perforated peptic ulcers. A total of 71 patients were analyzed. Laparoscopically operated patients had a shorter hospital stay (13.7 vs. 15.1 days). In an intention-to-treat analysis, patients with conversion to open surgery (analyzed as subgroup from laparoscopic approach group) showed no prolonged hospital stay (15.3 days) compared to patients with a primary open approach. Complication and mortality rates were not different between the groups. The statistical analysis identified four intraoperative risk factors for conversion: Mannheim peritonitis index (MPI) > 21 (p = 0.02), generalized peritonitis (p = 0.04), adhesions, and perforations located in a region other than the duodenal anterior wall. We found seven predictive factors for septic complications: age >70 (p = 0.02), cardiopulmonary disease (p = 0.04), ASA > 3 (p = 0.002), CRP > 100 (p = 0.005), duration of symptoms >24 h (p = 0.02), MPI > 21(p = 0.008), and generalized peritonitis (p = 0.02). Our data suggest that a primary laparoscopic approach has no disadvantages. Factors necessitating conversions emerged during the procedure inhibiting a preoperative selection. Factors suggesting imminent septic complications can be assessed preoperatively. An assessment of the proposed parameters may help optimize the management of possible septic complications.

  2. Enhanced presurgical pain temporal summation response predicts post-thoracotomy pain intensity during the acute postoperative phase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weissman-Fogel, Irit; Granovsky, Yelena; Crispel, Yonathan; Ben-Nun, Alon; Best, Lael Anson; Yarnitsky, David; Granot, Michal

    2009-06-01

    Recent evidence points to an association between experimental pain measures obtained preoperatively and acute postoperative pain (POP). We hypothesized that pain temporal summation (TS) might be an additional predictor for POP insofar as it represents the neuroplastic changes that occur in the central nervous system following surgery. Therefore, a wide range of psychophysical tests (TS to heat and mechanical repetitive stimuli, pain threshold, and suprathreshold pain estimation) and personality tests (pain catastrophizing and anxiety levels) were administered prior to thoracotomy in 84 patients. POP ratings were evaluated on the 2nd and 5th days after surgery at rest (spontaneous pain) and in response to activity (provoked pain). Linear regression models revealed that among all assessed variables, enhanced TS and higher pain scores for mechanical stimulation were significantly associated with greater provoked POP intensity (overall r2 = 0.225, P = .008). Patients who did not demonstrate TS to both modalities reported lower scores of provoked POP as compared with patients who demonstrated TS in response to at least 1 modality (F = 4.59 P = .013). Despite the moderate association between pain catastrophizing and rest POP, none of the variables predicted the spontaneous POP intensity. These findings suggest that individual susceptibility toward a greater summation response may characterize patients who are potentially vulnerable to augmented POP. This study proposed the role of pain temporal summation assessed preoperatively as a significant psychophysical predictor for acute postoperative pain intensity. The individual profile of enhanced pain summation is associated with the greater likelihood of higher postoperative pain scores.

  3. Significant Risk Factors for Postoperative Enlargement of Basal Ganglia Hematoma after Frameless Stereotactic Aspiration: Antiplatelet Medication and Concomitant IVH.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, Wonsoo; Park, Jaechan

    2017-09-01

    Frameless stereotactic aspiration of a hematoma can be the one of the treatment options for spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage in the basal ganglia. Postoperative hematoma enlargement, however, can be a serious complication of intracranial surgery that frequently results in severe neurological deficit and even death. Therefore, it is important to identify the risk factors of postoperative hematoma growth. During a 13-year period, 101 patients underwent minimally invasive frameless stereotactic aspiration for basal ganglia hematoma. Patients were classified into two groups according to whether or not they had postoperative hematoma enlargement in a computed tomography scan. Baseline demographic data and several risk factors, such as hypertension, preoperative hematoma growth, antiplatelet medication, presence of concomitant intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), were analysed via a univariate statistical study. Nine of 101 patients (8.9%) showed hematoma enlargement after frameless stereotactic aspiration. Among the various risk factors, concomitant IVH and antiplatelet medication were found to be significantly associated with postoperative enlargement of hematomas. In conclusion, our study revealed that aspirin use and concomitant IVH are factors associated with hematoma enlargement subsequent to frameless stereotactic aspiration for basal ganglia hematoma.

  4. Ureteral stents increase risk of postoperative acute kidney injury following colorectal surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassinger, Taryn E; Mehaffey, J Hunter; Mullen, Matthew G; Michaels, Alex D; Elwood, Nathan R; Levi, Shoshana T; Hedrick, Traci L; Friel, Charles M

    2018-07-01

    Ureteral stents are commonly placed before colorectal resection to assist in identification of ureters and prevent injury. Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common cause of morbidity and increased cost following colorectal surgery. Although previously associated with reflex anuria, prophylactic stents have not been found to increase AKI. We sought to determine the impact of ureteral stents on the incidence of AKI following colorectal surgery. All patients undergoing colon or rectal resection at a single institution between 2005 and 2015 were reviewed using American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program dataset. AKI was defined as a rise in serum creatinine to ≥ 1.5 times the preoperative value. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of AKI. 2910 patients underwent colorectal resection. Prophylactic ureteral stents were placed in 129 patients (4.6%). Postoperative AKI occurred in 335 (11.5%) patients during their hospitalization. The stent group demonstrated increased AKI incidence (32.6% vs. 10.5%; p colorectal surgery including age, procedure duration, and ureteral stent placement. Prophylactic ureteral stents independently increased AKI risk when placed prior to colorectal surgery. These data demonstrate increased morbidity and hospital costs related to usage of stents in colorectal surgery, indicating that placement should be limited to patients with highest potential benefit.

  5. PATIENT POSITION AS A POSSIBLE RISK FACTOR FOR POSTOPERATIVE NAUSEA AND VOMITING (PONV IN GYNECOLOGIC LAPAROSCOPY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandar Ćirić

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV are still a significant problem in modern anesthetic practice. Discomfort caused by PONV intensifies other unpleasant elements of recovery, such as pain, frustration or fear. PONV also generates aversion to future anesthesia and have a negative impact on staff and patient's family. PONV can increase the cost of completing a surgical procedure, because it extends the time a patient spends in the postanesthesia care unit (PACU or delay discharge of ambulatory patients. It is generally accepted that the incidence of PONV after general anesthesia for various types of surgery in the last decade is still between 20-30%, and 70% in laparoscopic abdominal surgery. The incidence is three times higher in females compared to males. Many factors are involved in triggering PONV, such as patientrelated factors, the type of surgery, anesthesia management, etc. The results of this study suggest that the patient positioning (modified supine lithotomy position with ''Trendelenburg" increases the risk of PONV in gynecologic laparoscopy.

  6. Echocardiographic right ventricle longitudinal contraction indices cannot predict ejection fraction in post-operative Fallot children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnemains, Laurent; Stos, Bertrand; Vaugrenard, Thibaud; Marie, Pierre-Yves; Odille, Freddy; Boudjemline, Younes

    2012-03-01

    To examine in a population of post-operative tetralogy of Fallot patients, the correlation between right ventricle (RV) ejection fractions (EF) computed from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and three echocardiographic indices of RV function: TAPSE, longitudinal strain and strain rate. Indeed, these patients present a pulmonary regurgitation which is responsible for progressive dilatation of the RV. An echocardiographic assessment of the RV function would be very useful in determining the timing of pulmonary revalvulation for Fallot patients. However, these indices are generally based on the ventricle contraction in the long axis direction which is impaired in this population and does not seem to correlate with the EF. Thirty-five post-operative tetralogy of Fallot patients and 20 patients with normal RVs were included. In both groups, RVEF, assessed by MRI, was compared with the three echocardiographic indices. Longitudinal strain and strain rates were computed both on the free wall and on the whole RV. No correlation was found between the echocardiographic indices and the MRI EF in our Fallot population. The accuracy of those indices as a diagnostic test of an altered RV was low with Younden's indices varying from -0.18 to 0.5 and areas under the Receiver Operating Characterictic (ROC) curves equal to 0.54 for tricuspid annulus plane systolic excursion, 0.59-0.62 for strain and 0.57-0.63 for strain rate. Three conventional echocardiographic indices based on RV longitudinal contraction failed to assess the EF in our population of post-operative tetralogy of Fallot patients.

  7. Postoperative Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy in High Risk Prostate Cancer: A Dosimetric Comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Digesu, Cinzia; Cilla, Savino; De Gaetano, Andrea; Massaccesi, Mariangela; Macchia, Gabriella; Ippolito, Edy; Deodato, Francesco; Panunzi, Simona; Iapalucci, Chiara; Mattiucci, Gian Carlo; D'Angelo, Elisa; Padula, Gilbert D.A.; Valentini, Vincenzo; Cellini, Numa

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with 3D conformal technique (3D-CRT), with respect to target coverage and irradiation of organs at risk for high dose postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) of the prostate fossa. 3D-CRT and IMRT treatment plans were compared with respect to dose to the rectum and bladder. The dosimetric comparison was carried out in 15 patients considering 2 different scenarios: (1) exclusive prostate fossa irradiation, and (2) pelvic node irradiation followed by a boost on the prostate fossa. In scenario (1), a 3D-CRT plan (box technique) and an IMRT plan were calculated and compared for each patient. In scenario (2), 3 treatment plans were calculated and compared for each patient: (a) 3D-CRT box technique for both pelvic (prophylactic nodal irradiation) and prostate fossa irradiation (3D-CRT only); (b) 3D-CRT box technique for pelvic irradiation followed by an IMRT boost to the prostatic fossa (hybrid 3D-CRT and IMRT); and (c) IMRT for both pelvic and prostate fossa irradiation (IMRT only). For exclusive prostate fossa irradiation, IMRT significantly reduced the dose to the rectum (lower Dmean, V50%, V75%, V90%, V100%, EUD, and NTCP) and the bladder (lower Dmean, V50%, V90%, EUD and NTCP). When prophylactic irradiation of the pelvis was also considered, plan C (IMRT only) performed better than plan B (hybrid 3D-CRT and IMRT) as respect to both rectum and bladder irradiation (reduction of Dmean, V50%, V75%, V90%, equivalent uniform dose [EUD], and normal tissue complication probability [NTCP]). Plan (b) (hybrid 3D-CRT and IMRT) performed better than plan (a) (3D-CRT only) with respect to dose to the rectum (lower Dmean, V75%, V90%, V100%, EUD, and NTCP) and the bladder (Dmean, EUD, and NTCP). Postoperative IMRT in prostate cancer significantly reduces rectum and bladder irradiation compared with 3D-CRT.

  8. Impact of procedure on the post-operative infection risk of patients after elective colon surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blitzer, David N; Davis, John M; Ahmed, Nasim; Kuo, Yen-Hong; Kuo, Yen-Liang

    2014-12-01

    Post-operative infection impacts the quality of patient care, prolongs the length of hospital stay, and utilizes more health care resources. The purpose of this study was to compare the rates of surgical site infection among three major surgical procedures for treating patients with colon pathology. The location of colon resection impacts the post-operative infection rate. A retrospective cohort study was conducted by using the 2006 Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Adult patients (age ≥18 yr) with colon diseases are the population of interest. The disease status and procedures were categorized according to the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM). Patients with a primary diagnosis of diverticulosis of the colon without hemorrhage (ICD-9-CM codes: 562.11 and 562.12) or malignant neoplasm of the colon (ICD-9-CM codes: 153.x, where x represents the possible digits within this ICD-9-CM code category), with procedures of open and other right hemicolectomy (ORH; ICD-9-CM code: 45.73) or open and other left hemicolectomy (OLH; ICD-9-CM code: 45.75), or open and other sigmoidectomy (OS; ICD-9-CM code: 45.76) were included for this study. The primary measured outcome for the study was surgical site infection. There were an estimated 26,381 ORH procedures, 9,558 OLH procedures, and 31,656 OS procedures performed in 2006. There was a significant difference among procedures with respect to their age distributions (mean [standard error]: ORH vs. OLH vs. OS=70.5 [0.2] vs. 63.8 [0.3] vs. 59.5 [0.2] yr, pinfection rates: ORH vs. OLH vs. OS=2.9% vs. 5.6% vs. 4.9%, pinfection for OLH (AOR [95% CI]: 1.31 [1.04-1.64], p=0.02) compared with OS. Different sites of colon operations were associated with different risks of surgical site infections. Accordingly, appropriate pre-operative measures should address these differences.

  9. Postoperative delirium: age and low functional reserve as independent risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinho, Cristiana; Cruz, Sofia; Santos, Alice; Abelha, Fernando J

    2016-09-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of postoperative delirium (POD) and the presence of previous conditions related to its development. Prospective observational study. The study was performed in adult patients (n=221) scheduled for elective surgery and admitted to the postanesthesia care unit (PACU). The presence of POD was assessed by the Nursing Delirium Screening Scale at discharge from the PACU and 24hours after surgery. Descriptive analyses were carried out, and statistical comparisons were performed with Mann-Whitney U, χ(2), or Fisher exact test. Logistic regression analysis was used for evaluation of independent determinants of POD. POD was found in 25 patients (11%). Patients who developed POD were older (median age, 69 vs 57years; P<.001); had a higher American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status score (≥3) (60% vs 19%, respectively, had American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status III/IV; P<.001); and showed higher incidences of ischemic heart disease (24% vs 6%; P=.001), chronic kidney disease (20% vs 5%; P=.005), hypertension (80% vs 45%; P=.001), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (20% vs 6%; P=.009), and low functional reserve (LFR) (24% vs 2%; P<.001). Age (odds ratio, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.10; P=.003) and LFR (odds ratio, 8.04; 95% confidence interval, 3.95-32.27; P=.003) were considered independent risk factors for POD. The incidence of POD in the study population (11%) is consistent with that described in the literature (5%-15%). The comorbidities associated with its development were ischemic heart disease, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, LFR, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Age ≥65years and LFR were independent risk factors for POD development. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. The influence of dexamethasone and ketolgan on postoperative nausea and vomiting and estimation of risk factors in women undergoing gynecologic laparoscopic surgeries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimaitis, Kestutis; Svitojūte, Asta; Macas, Andrius

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the effect of dexamethasone and ketolgan on postoperative nausea and vomiting and to evaluate risk factors for postoperative nausea and vomiting. A prospective, double-blind, randomized clinical study was carried out. One hundred fifty-three ASA I-II women undergoing laparoscopic gynecologic operations were randomized into three groups: dexamethasone group (n=51), ketolgan group (n=51), and control group (n=51). Patients in the dexamethasone group were given 4 mg of dexamethasone intravenously before the induction of general anesthesia, the ketolgan group received 30-mg ketolgan intravenously, and control group did not receive any medication. The incidence and severity of postoperative nausea and vomiting were registered 24 hours after the surgery. The incidence of postoperative nausea and vomiting in the dexamethasone group was 13.8%; in the ketolgan group, 37.3%, and in the control group, 58.9% (P=0.026). Patients with a history of migraine suffered from postoperative nausea and vomiting in 70.3% of cases and migraine-free patients in 25.8% of cases (P=0.015). Opioids for postoperative analgesia increased the incidence of postoperative nausea and vomiting as compared with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (P=0.00002). Preoperative medication with dexamethasone significantly reduces the incidence of postoperative nausea and vomiting. Avoidance of opioids for postoperative analgesia reduces the incidence of postoperative nausea and vomiting. Migraine and motion sickness are independent risk factors for postoperative nausea and vomiting.

  11. Risk factors for postoperative delirium in patients undergoing major head and neck cancer surgery: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yun; Wang, Gangpu; Liu, Shengwen; Zhou, Shanghui; Lian, Ying; Zhang, Chenping; Yang, Wenjun

    2017-06-01

    Postoperative delirium is common after extensive surgery. This study aimed to collate and synthesize published literature on risk factors for delirium in patients with head and neck cancer surgery. Three databases were searched (MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Library) between January 1987 and July 2016. The Newcastle Ottawa Scale (NOS) was adopted to evaluate the study quality. Pooled odds ratios or mean differences for individual risk factors were estimated using the Mantel-Haenszel and inverse-variance methods. They provided a total of 1940 patients (286 with delirium and 1654 without), and predominantly included patients undergoing head and neck cancer surgery. The incidence of postoperative delirium ranged from 11.50% to 36.11%. Ten statistically significant risk factors were identified in pooled analysis. Old age, age >70 years, male sex, duration of surgery, history of hypertension, blood transfusions, tracheotomy, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status grade at least III, flap reconstruction and neck dissection were more likely to sustain delirium after head and neck cancer surgery. Delirium is common in patients undergoing major head neck cancer surgery. Several risk factors were consistently associated with postoperative delirium. These factors help to highlight patients at risk of developing delirium and are suitable for preventive action. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  12. Epidemiology, practice of ventilation and outcome for patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications: LAS VEGAS - an observational study in 29 countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroell, Wolfgang; Metzler, Helfried; Struber, Gerd; Wegscheider, Thomas; Gombotz, Hans; Hiesmayr, Michael; Schmid, Werner; Urbanek, Bernhard; Leva, Brigitte; Damster, Sandrine; Plichon, Benoit; Kahn, David; Momeni, Mona; Pospiech, Audrey; Lois, Fernande; Forget, Patrice; Grosu, Irina; Poelaert, Jan; van Mossevelde, Veerle; van Malderen, Marie-Claire; Dylst, Dimitri; van Melkebeek, Jeroen; Beran, Maud; de Hert, Stefan; de Baerdemaeker, Luc; Heyse, Bjorn; van Limmen, Jurgen; Wyffels, Piet; Jacobs, Tom; Roels, Nathalie; de Bruyne, Ann; van de Velde, Stijn; Juros-Zovko, Marina; Djonoviċ-Omanoviċ, Dejana; Serpa Neto, Ary; Pernar, Selma; Zunic, Josip; Miskovic, Petar; Zilic, Antonio; Kvolik, Slavica; Ivic, Dubravka; Azenic-Venzera, Darija; Skiljic, Sonja; Vinkovic, Hrvoje; Oputric, Ivana; Juricic, Kazimir; Frkovic, Vedran; Kopic, Jasminka; Mirkovic, Ivan; Karanovic, Nenad; Carev, Mladen; Dropulic, Natasa; Pavičić-Šarić, Jadranka; Erceg, Gorjana; Bogdanović Dvorščak, Matea; Mazul-Sunko, Branka; Pavicic, Anna Marija; Goranovic, Tanja; Maldini, Branka; Radocaj, Tomislav; Gavranovic, Zeljka; Mladic-Batinica, Inga; Sehovic, Mirna; Stourac, Petr; Harazim, Hana; Smekalova, Olga; Kosinova, Martina; Kolacek, Tomas; Hudacek, Kamil; Drab, Michal; Brujevic, Jan; Vitkova, Katerina; Jirmanova, Katerina; Volfova, Ivana; Dzurnakova, Paula; Liskova, Katarina; Dudas, Radovan; Filipsky, Radek; El Kafrawy, Samir; Hosny Abdelwahab, Hisham; Metwally, Tarek; Abdel-Razek, Ahmed; El-Shaarawy, Ahmed Mostafa; Fathy Hasan, Wael; Gouda Ahmed, Ahmed; Yassin, Hany; Magdy, Mohamed; Abdelhady, Mahdy; Mahran, Mohamed; Herodes, Eiko; Kivik, Peeter; Oganjan, Juri; Aun, Annika; Sormus, Alar; Sarapuu, Kaili; Mall, Merilin; Karjagin, Juri; Futier, Emmanuel; Petit, Antoine; Gerard, Adeline; Marret, Emmanuel; Solier, Marc; Jaber, Samir; Prades, Albert; Putensen, Christian; Krassler, Jens; Merzky, Simone; Gama de Abreu, Marcelo; Uhlig, Christopher; Kiss, Thomas; Bundy, Anette; Bluth, Thomas; Güldner, Andreas; Spieth, Peter; Scharffenberg, Martin; Tran Thiem, Denny; Koch, Thea; Treschan, Tanja; Schaefer, Maximilian; Bastin, Bea; Geib, Johann; Weiss, Martin; Kienbaum, Peter; Pannen, Benedikt; Gottschalk, Andre; Konrad, Mirja; Westerheide, Diana; Schwertfeger, Ben; Wrigge, Hermann; Simon, Philipp; Reske, Andreas; Nestler, Christian; Valsamidis, Dimitrios; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Anthopoulos, Georgios; Andreaou, Antonis; Karapanos, Dimitris; Theodoraki, Kassiani; Gkiokas, Georgios; Ttasoulis, Marios-Konstantinos; Sidiropoulou, Tatiana; Zafeiropoulou, Foteini; Florou, Panagiota; Pandazi, Aggeliki; Tsaousi, Georgia; Nouris, Christos; Pourzitaki, Chryssa; Bystritski, Dmitri; Pizov, Reuven; Eden, Arieh; Pesce, Caterina Valeria; Campanile, Annamaria; Marrella, Antonella; Grasso, Salvatore; de Michele, Michele; Bona, Francesco; Giacoletto, Gianmarco; Sardo, Elena; Giancarlo, Luigi; Sottosanti, Vicari; Solca, Maurizio; Volta, Carlo Alberto; Spadaro, Savino; Verri, Marco; Ragazzi, Riccardo; Zoppellari, Roberto; Cinnella, Gilda; Raimondo, Pasquale; La Bella, Daniela; Mirabella, Lucia; D'Antini, Davide; Pelosi, Paolo; Molin, Alexandre; Brunetti, Iole; Gratarola, Angelo; Pellerano, Giulia; Sileo, Rosanna; Pezzato, Stefano; Montagnani, Luca; Pasin, Laura; Landoni, Giovanni; Zangrillo, Alberto; Beretta, Luigi; Di Parma, Ambra Licia; Tarzia, Valentina; Dossi, Roberto; Sassone, Marta Eugenia; Sances, Daniele; Tredici, Stefano; Spano, Gianluca; Castellani, Gianluca; Delunas, Luigi; Peradze, Sopio; Venturino, Marco; Arpino, Ines; Sher, Sara; Tommasino, Concezione; Rapido, Francesca; Morelli, Paola; Vargas, Maria; Servillo, Giuseppe; Cortegiani, Andrea; Raineri, Santi Maurizio; Montalto, Francesca; Russotto, Vincenzo; Giarratano, Antonino; Baciarello, Marco; Generali, Michela; Cerati, Giorgia; Leykin, Yigal; Bressan, Filippo; Bartolini, Vittoria; Zamidei, Lucia; Brazzi, Luca; Liperi, Corrado; Sales, Gabriele; Pistidda, Laura; Severgnini, Paolo; Brugnoni, Elisa; Musella, Giuseppe; Bacuzzi, Alessandro; Muhardri, Dalip; Gecaj-Gashi, Agreta; Sada, Fatos; Bytyqi, Adem; Karbonskiene, Aurika; Aukstakalniene, Ruta; Teberaite, Zivile; Salciute, Erika; Tikuisis, Renatas; Miliauskas, Povilas; Jurate, Sipylaite; Kontrimaviciute, Egle; Tomkute, Gabija; Xuereb, John; Bezzina, Maureen; Borg, Francis Joseph; Hemmes, Sabrine; Schultz, Marcus; Hollmann, Markus; Wiersma, Irene; Binnekade, Jan; Bos, Lieuwe; Boer, Christa; Duvekot, Anne; In 't Veld, Bas; Werger, Alice; Dennesen, Paul; Severijns, Charlotte; de Jong, Jasper; Hering, Jens; van Beek, Rienk; Ivars, Stefan; Jammer, Ib; Breidablik, Alena; Skirstad Hodt, Katharina; Fjellanger, Frode; VicoAvalos, Manuel; Mellin-Olsen, Jannicke; Andersson, Elisabeth; Shafi-Kabiri, Amir; Molina, Ruby; Wutai, Stanley; Morais, Erick; Tareco, Glo Ria; Ferreira, Daniel; Amaral, Joana; Gonçalves Castro, Maria de Lurdes; Cadilha, Susana; Appleton, Sofia; Parente, Suzana; Correia, Mariana; Martins, Diogo; Monteirosa, Angela; Ricardo, Ana; Rodrigues, Sara; Horhota, Lucian; Grintescu, Ioana Marina; Mirea, Liliana; Grintescu, Ioana Cristina; Corneci, Dan; Negoita, Silvius; Dutu, Madalina; Popescu Garotescu, Ioana; Filipescu, Daniela; Prodan, Alexandru Bogdan; Droc, Gabriela; Fota, Ruxandra; Popescu, Mihai; Tomescu, Dana; Petcu, Ana Maria; Tudoroiu, Marian Irinel; Moise, Alida; Guran, Catalin-Traian; Gherghina, Iorel; Costea, Dan; Cindea, Iulia; Copotoiu, Sanda-Maria; Copotoiu, Ruxandra; Barsan, Victoria; Tolcser, Zsolt; Riciu, Magda; Septimiu, Gheorghe Moldovan; Veres, Mihaly; Gritsan, Alexey; Kapkan, Tatyana; Gritsan, Galina; Korolkov, Oleg; Kulikov, Alexander; Lubnin, Andrey; Ovezov, Alexey; Prokoshev, Pavel; Lugovoy, Alexander; Anipchenko, Natalia; Babayants, Andrey; Komissarova, Irina; Zalina, Karginova; Likhvantsev, Valery; Fedorov, Sergei; Lazukic, Aleksandra; Pejakovic, Jasmina; Mihajlovic, Dunja; Kusnierikova, Zuzana; Zelinkova, Maria; Bruncakova, Katarina; Polakovicova, Lenka; Sobona, Villiam; Novak-Supe, Barbka; Pekle-Golez, Ana; Jovanov, Miroljub; Strazisar, Branka; Markovic-Bozic, Jasmina; Novak-Jankovic, Vesna; Voje, Minca; Grynyuk, Andriy; Kostadinov, Ivan; Spindler-Vesel, Alenka; Moral, Victoria; Unzueta, Carmen; Puigbo, Carlos; Fava, Josep; Canet, Jaume; Moret, Enrique; Rodriguez Nunez, Mo Nica; Sendra, Mar; Brunelli, Andrea; Rodenas, Frederic; Monedero, Pablo; Hidalgo Martinez, Francisco; Yepes Temino, Maria Jose; Marti Nez Simon, Antonio; de Abajo Larriba, Ana; Lisi, Alberto; Perez, Gisela; Martinez, Raquel; Granell, Manuel; Tatay Vivo, Jose; Saiz Ruiz, Cristina; de Andre S Iban Ez, Jose Antonio; Pastor, Ernesto; Soro, Marina; Ferrando, Carlos; Defez, Mario; Aldecoa Alvares-Santullano, Cesar; Pere, Rocio; Rico, Jesus; Jawad, Monir; Saeed, Yousif; Gillberg, Lars; Hedenstierna, Göran; Kazak Bengisun, Zuleyha; Kansu Kazbek, Baturay; Coskunfirat, Nesil; Boztug, Neval; Sanli, Suat; Yilmaz, Murat; Hadimioglu, Necmiye; Senturk, Nuzhet Mert; Camci, Emre; Kucukgoncu, Semra; Sungur, Zerrin; Sivrikoz, Nukhet; Ustalar Ozgen, Serpil; Toraman, Fevzi; Selvi, Onur; Senturk, Ozgur; Yildiz, Mine; Kuvaki, Bahar; Gunenc, Ferim; Kucukguclu, Semih; Ozbilgin, S. Ule; Maral, Jale; Canli, Seyda; Arun, Oguzhan; Saltali, Ali; Aydogan, Eyup; Akgün, Fatma Nur; Sanlikarip, Ceren; Mine Karaman, Fatma; Mazur, Andriy; Vorotyntsev, Sergiy; Rousseau, Guy; Barrett, Colin; Stancombe, Lucia; Shelley, Ben; Scholes, Helen; Limb, James; Rafi, Amir; Wayman, Lisa; Deane, Jill; Rogerson, David; Williams, John; Yates, Susan; Rogers, Elaine; Pulletz, Mark; Moreton, Sarah; Jones, Stephanie; Venkatesh, Suresh; Burton, Maudrian; Brown, Lucy; Goodall, Cait; Rucklidge, Matthew; Fuller, Debbie; Nadolski, Maria; Kusre, Sandeep; Lundberg, Michael; Everett, Lynn; Nutt, Helen; Zuleika, Maka; Carvalho, Peter; Clements, Deborah; Creagh-Brown, Ben; Watt, Philip; Raymode, Parizade; Pearse, Rupert; Mohr, Otto; Raj, Ashok; Creary, Thais; Chishti, Ahmed; Bell, Andrea; Higham, Charley; Cain, Alistair; Gibb, Sarah; Mowat, Stephen; Franklin, Danielle; West, Claire; Minto, Gary; Boyd, Nicholas; Mills, Gary; Calton, Emily; Walker, Rachel; Mackenzie, Felicity; Ellison, Branwen; Roberts, Helen; Chikungwa, Moses; Jackson, Clare; Donovan, Andrew; Foot, Jayne; Homan, Elizabeth; Montgomery, Jane; Portch, David; Mercer, Pauline; Palme, Janet; Paddle, Jonathan; Fouracres, Anna; Datson, Amanda; Andrew, Alyson; Welch, Leanne; Rose, Alastair; Varma, Sandeep; Simeson, Karen; Rambhatla, Mrutyunjaya; Susarla, Jaysimha; Marri, Sudhakar; Kodaganallur, Krishnan; Das, Ashok; Algarsamy, Shivarajan; Colley, Julie; Davies, Simon; Szewczyk, Margaret; Smith, Thomas; Fernandez-Bustamante, Ana; Luzier, Elizabeth; Almagro, Angela; Vidal Melo, Marcos; Fernando, Luiz; Sulemanji, Demet; Sprung, Juraj; Weingarten, Toby; Kor, Daryl; Scavonetto, Federica; Tze, Yeo

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUNDLimited information exists about the epidemiology and outcome of surgical patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs), and how intraoperative ventilation was managed in these patients.OBJECTIVESTo determine the incidence of surgical patients at increased risk

  13. Association of blood lipid levels with the risk of cholecystectomy and postoperative pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WANG Qiang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available ObjectiveTo investigate whether blood lipid control can delay the progression of asymptomatic gallstones and reduce the risk of cholecystectomy in patients with gallstones and hyperlipidemia, as well as the influence of hyperlipidemia on postoperative pain after cholecystectomy. MethodsA total of 153 patients with asymptomatic gallstones and hyperlipidemia who underwent physical examination from February 2013 to February 2015 were enrolled and randomly divided into experimental group with 72 patients and control group with 81 patients. The patients in the experimental group were given blood lipid control via diet, exercise, and drugs, and according to fasting triglyceride (TG and total cholesterol (TC after 3 months, these patients were further divided into normal blood lipid group with 47 patients and abnormal blood lipid group with 25 patients. All the patients were followed up for 2 years with an interval of 3 months. The surgical indications for laparoscopic cholecystectomy were persistent pain in the gallbladder or more than 3 times of gallbladder discomfort within the past one month. A subgroup analysis was performed based on the number and size of gallstones to evaluate the risk of cholecystectomy. A numerical pain scale was used to assess the improvement in pain during hospitalization and at 3 and 6 months after surgery. The t-test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups; a one-way analysis of variance was used for comparison between three groups, and the Bonferroni test was used for further comparison between any two groups. The chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. ResultsThe normal blood lipid group had a significantly lower rate of cholecystectomy than the abnormal blood lipid group and the control group (23.4% vs 68.8%/70.4%, χ2=2772, P<0.01. The patients in the normal blood lipid group had moderate pain during hospitalization, while those in the abnormal blood lipid

  14. Alcohol screening and risk of postoperative complications in male VA patients undergoing major non-cardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Katharine A; Rubinsky, Anna D; Sun, Haili; Bryson, Chris L; Bishop, Michael J; Blough, David K; Henderson, William G; Maynard, Charles; Hawn, Mary T; Tønnesen, Hanne; Hughes, Grant; Beste, Lauren A; Harris, Alex H S; Hawkins, Eric J; Houston, Thomas K; Kivlahan, Daniel R

    2011-02-01

    Patients who misuse alcohol are at increased risk for surgical complications. Four weeks of preoperative abstinence decreases the risk of complications, but practical approaches for early preoperative identification of alcohol misuse are needed. To evaluate whether results of alcohol screening with the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test - Consumption (AUDIT-C) questionnaire-up to a year before surgery-were associated with the risk of postoperative complications. This is a cohort study. Male Veterans Affairs (VA) patients were eligible if they had major noncardiac surgery assessed by the VA's Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) in fiscal years 2004-2006, and completed the AUDIT-C alcohol screening questionnaire (0-12 points) on a mailed survey within 1 year before surgery. One or more postoperative complication(s) within 30 days of surgery based on VASQIP nurse medical record reviews. Among 9,176 eligible men, 16.3% screened positive for alcohol misuse with AUDIT-C scores ≥ 5, and 7.8% had postoperative complications. Patients with AUDIT-C scores ≥ 5 were at significantly increased risk for postoperative complications, compared to patients who drank less. In analyses adjusted for age, smoking, and days from screening to surgery, the estimated prevalence of postoperative complications increased from 5.6% (95% CI 4.8-6.6%) in patients with AUDIT-C scores 1-4, to 7.9% (6.3-9.7%) in patients with AUDIT-Cs 5-8, 9.7% (6.6-14.1%) in patients with AUDIT-Cs 9-10 and 14.0% (8.9-21.3%) in patients with AUDIT-Cs 11-12. In fully-adjusted analyses that included preoperative covariates potentially in the causal pathway between alcohol misuse and complications, the estimated prevalence of postoperative complications increased significantly from 4.8% (4.1-5.7%) in patients with AUDIT-C scores 1-4, to 6.9% (5.5-8.7%) in patients with AUDIT-Cs 5-8 and 7.5% (5.0-11.3%) among those with AUDIT-Cs 9-10. AUDIT-C scores of 5 or more up to a year before surgery were

  15. Physiological Indices of Stress Prior to and Following Total Knee Arthroplasty Predict the Occurrence of Severe Post-Operative Pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cremeans-Smith, Julie K; Greene, Kenneth; Delahanty, Douglas L

    2016-05-01

    The severe pain and disability associated with osteoarthritis often motivate individuals to undergo arthroplastic surgery. However, a significant number of surgical patients continue to experience pain following surgery. Prior research has implicated both the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and sympathetic nervous system (SNS) in the sensitization of pain receptors and chronic pain conditions. This study uses a prospective, observational, cohort design to examine whether physiological stress responses before and after surgery could predict post-operative pain severity. Participants included 110 patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty. Physiological indices of stress included the measurement of catecholamine and cortisol levels in 15-hour urine samples collected prior to and 1 month following surgery, as well as in-hospital heart rate and blood pressure (before and after surgery), which were abstracted from medical records. Patients completed the pain subscale of the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) [Bellamy et al., J Orthop Rheumatol 1: , 95 (1988)] 2.5 weeks prior to surgery and at a 3-month follow-up. Contrary to expectations, lower stress hormone levels at baseline were related to more severe post-operative pain. Data at later time points, however, supported our hypothesis: cardiovascular tone shortly before surgery and urinary levels of epinephrine 1 month following surgery were positively related to pain severity 3 months later. Results suggest that the occurrence of post-operative pain can be predicted on the basis of stress physiology prior to and following arthroplastic surgery. © 2015 American Academy of Pain Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. [Effects of Early Enteral Immunonutrition on Postoperative Immune Function and Rehabilitation of Patients with Gastric Cancer and Nutritional Risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Chang-Bing; Li, Wen-Zhong; Xu, Rui; Zhuang, Wen

    2017-05-01

    To investigate the effects of early enteral immunonutrition on postoperative immune function and rehabilitation of gastric cancer patients with nutritional risk. New hospitalized patients with gastric cancer were evaluated the nutrient status based on NRS 2002. The patients who scored between 3 to 5 points were randomized into two groups(30 cases for each group), and those in experimental group were given 7-d early postoperative enteral immune nutrition, those in control group were given normal nutrition. The immune indexes (CD3 + , CD4 + , CD8 + and CD4 + /CD8 + ) and nutritional indexes(transferrin, pre-albumin, albumin) were measured before operation and at the 3 rd and 7 th day postoperatively. In addition, the first flatus time, gastrointestinal adverse reactions and complications, length of hospital stays were compared between the two groups. The level of CD4 + /CD8 + and transferrin, pre-albumin, albumin in experimental group were significantly higher than those in control group at the third and seventh day postoperatively ( P 0.05). Early enteral immunonutrition can effectively promote the recovery of nutritional status and immune function in gastric cancer patients with nutrition risk.

  17. Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye

    2016-12-01

    As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  18. Subclinical organ damage and cardiovascular risk prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Olsen, Michael H

    2010-01-01

    Traditional cardiovascular risk factors have poor prognostic value for individuals and screening for subclinical organ damage has been recommended in hypertension in recent guidelines. The aim of this review was to investigate the clinical impact of the additive prognostic information provided...... by measuring subclinical organ damage. We have (i) reviewed recent studies linking markers of subclinical organ damage in the heart, blood vessels and kidney to cardiovascular risk; (ii) discussed the evidence for improvement in cardiovascular risk prediction using markers of subclinical organ damage; (iii...

  19. Body mass index predicts risk for complications from transtemporal cerebellopontine angle surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantravadi, Avinash V; Leonetti, John P; Burgette, Ryan; Pontikis, George; Marzo, Sam J; Anderson, Douglas

    2013-03-01

    To determine the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and risk for specific complications from transtemporal cerebellopontine angle (CPA) surgery for nonmalignant disease. Case series with chart review. Tertiary-care academic hospital. Retrospective review of 134 consecutive patients undergoing transtemporal cerebellopontine angle surgery for nonmalignant disease from 2009 to 2011. Data were collected regarding demographics, body mass index, intraoperative details, hospital stay, and complications including cerebrospinal fluid leak, wound complications, and brachial plexopathy. One hundred thirty-four patients were analyzed with a mean preoperative body mass index of 28.58. Statistical analysis demonstrated a significant difference in body mass index between patients with a postoperative cerebrospinal fluid leak and those without (P = .04), as well as a similar significant difference between those experiencing postoperative brachial plexopathy and those with no such complication (P = .03). Logistical regression analysis confirmed that body mass index is significant in predicting both postoperative cerebrospinal fluid leak (P = .004; odds ratio, 1.10) and brachial plexopathy (P = .04; odds ratio, 1.07). Elevated body mass index was not significant in predicting wound complications or increased hospital stay beyond postoperative day 3. Risk of cerebrospinal fluid leak and brachial plexopathy is increased in patients with elevated body mass index undergoing surgery of the cerebellopontine angle. Consideration should be given to preoperative optimization via dietary and lifestyle modifications as well as intraoperative somatosensory evoked potential monitoring of the brachial plexus to decrease these risks.

  20. Can Surgeon Demographic Factors Predict Postoperative Complication Rates After Elective Spinal Fusion?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chun, Danielle S; Cook, Ralph W; Weiner, Joseph A; Schallmo, Michael S; Barth, Kathryn A; Singh, Sameer K; Freshman, Ryan D; Patel, Alpesh A; Hsu, Wellington K

    2018-03-01

    Retrospective cohort. Determine whether surgeon demographic factors influence postoperative complication rates after elective spine fusion procedures. Surgeon demographic factors have been shown to impact decision making in the management of degenerative disease of the lumbar spine. Complication rates are frequently reported outcome measurements used to evaluate surgical treatments, quality-of-care, and determine health care reimbursements. However, there are few studies investigating the association between surgeon demographic factors and complication outcomes after elective spine fusions. A database of US spine surgeons with corresponding postoperative complications data after elective spine fusions was compiled utilizing public data provided by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (2011-2013) and ProPublica Surgeon Scorecard (2009-2013). Demographic data for each surgeon was collected and consisted of: surgical specialty (orthopedic vs. neurosurgery), years in practice, practice setting (private vs. academic), type of medical degree (MD vs. DO), medical school location (United States vs. foreign), sex, and geographic region of practice. General linear mixed models using a Beta distribution with a logit link and pairwise comparison with post hoc Tukey-Kramer were used to assess the relationship between surgeon demographics and complication rates. 2110 US-practicing spine surgeons who performed spine fusions on 125,787 Medicare patients from 2011 to 2013 met inclusion criteria for this study. None of the surgeon demographic factors analyzed were found to significantly affect overall complication rates in lumbar (posterior approach) or cervical spine fusion. Publicly available complication rates for individual spine surgeons are being utilized by hospital systems and patients to assess aptitude and gauge expectations. The increasing demand for transparency will likely lead to emphasis of these statistics to improve outcomes. We conclude that none of the

  1. The Timing of Hip Arthroscopy After Intra-articular Hip Injection Affects Postoperative Infection Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dean; Camp, Christopher L; Ranawat, Anil S; Coleman, Struan H; Kelly, Bryan T; Werner, Brian C

    2017-11-01

    To evaluate the association of preoperative intra-articular hip injection with surgical site infection after hip arthroscopy. A large administrative database was used to identify all patients undergoing hip arthroscopy from 2007 to 2015 within a single private insurer and from 2005 to 2012 within Medicare in the United States. Those that received an ipsilateral preoperative intra-articular hip injection were identified. The patients were then divided into the following groups based on the interval between preoperative injection and ipsilateral hip arthroscopy: (1) 12 months) of preoperative hip injection. Patients developing a surgical site infection within 6 months following hip arthroscopy were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, and Current Procedural Terminology codes associated with infection. Groups were compared using a multivariate logistic regression analysis to control for age, gender, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol usage, and multiple medical comorbidities including diabetes mellitus, hemodialysis use, inflammatory arthritis, and peripheral vascular disease. In total, 19% of privately insured and 6% of Medicare patients received a hip injection within 12 months of hip arthroscopy. The overall infection rate in privately insured and Medicare patients was 1.19% and 1.10%, respectively. Preoperative hip injection within 3 months of surgery was associated with a significantly higher risk of postoperative infection versus controls (2.16%, odds ratio [OR] 6.1, P arthroscopy increased when preoperative intra-articular hip injections were given within 3 months of surgery. Level III, retrospective comparative study. Copyright © 2017 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Concomitant Mediastinoscopy Increases the Risk of Postoperative Pneumonia After Pulmonary Lobectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yendamuri, Sai; Battoo, Athar; Attwood, Kris; Dhillon, Samjot Singh; Dy, Grace K; Hennon, Mark; Picone, Anthony; Nwogu, Chukwumere; Demmy, Todd; Dexter, Elisabeth

    2018-05-01

    Mediastinoscopy is considered the gold standard for preresectional staging of lung cancer. We sought to examine the effect of concomitant mediastinoscopy on postoperative pneumonia (POP) in patients undergoing lobectomy. All patients in our institutional database (2008-2015) undergoing lobectomy who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy were included in our study. The relationship between mediastinoscopy and POP was examined using univariate (Chi square) and multivariate analyses (binary logistic regression). In order to validate our institutional findings, lobectomy data in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) from 2005 to 2014 were analyzed for these associations. Of 810 patients who underwent a lobectomy at our institution, 741 (91.5%) surgeries were performed by video-assisted thoracic surgery (VATS) and 487 (60.1%) patients underwent concomitant mediastinoscopy. Univariate analysis demonstrated an association between mediastinoscopy and POP in patients undergoing VATS [odds ratio (OR) 1.80; p = 0.003], but not open lobectomy. Multivariate analysis retained mediastinoscopy as a variable, although the relationship showed only a trend (OR 1.64; p = 0.1). In the NSQIP cohort (N = 12,562), concomitant mediastinoscopy was performed in 9.0% of patients, with 44.5% of all the lobectomies performed by VATS. Mediastinoscopy was associated with POP in patients having both open (OR1.69; p < 0.001) and VATS lobectomy (OR 1.72; p = 0.002). This effect remained in multivariate analysis in both the open and VATS lobectomy groups (OR 1.46, p = 0.003; and 1.53, p = 0.02, respectively). Mediastinoscopy may be associated with an increased risk of POP after pulmonary lobectomy. This observation should be examined in other datasets as it potentially impacts preresectional staging algorithms for patients with lung cancer.

  3. Incidence and risk factors for postoperative lingual neuropraxia following airway instrumentation: A retrospective matched case-control study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Kai Su

    Full Text Available Lingual nerve injury or neuropraxia is a rare but potentially serious perioperative complication following airway instrumentation during general anesthesia. This study explored the the incidence and perioperative risk factors for lingual nerve injury in patients receiving laryngeal mask (LMA or endotracheal (ETGA general anesthesia in a single center experience.All surgical patients in our hospital who received LMA or ETGA from 2009 to 2013 were included, and potential perioperative risk factors were compared. Matched controls were randomly selected (in 1:5 ratio from the same database in non-case patients. A total of 36 patients in the records had reported experiencing tongue numbness after anesthesia in this study. Compared with the non-case surgical population (n = 54314, patients with tongue numbness were significantly younger (52.2±19.5 vs 42.0±14.5; P = 0.002 and reported lower ASA physical statuses (2.3±0.7 vs 1.6±0.6; P<0.001. Patient gender, anesthesia technique used, and airway device type (LMA or ETGA did not differ significantly across the two groups. A significantly higher proportion of patients underwent operations of the head-and-neck region (38.9 vs 15.6%; P = 0.002 developed tongue numbness after anesthesia. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that head-and-neck operations remained the most significant independent risk factor for postoperative lingual nerve injury (AOR 7.63; 95% CI 2.03-28.70.The overall incidence rate of postoperative lingual neuropraxy was 0.066% in patients receiving general anesthesia with airway device in place. Young and generally healthy patients receiving head-and-neck operation are at higher risk in developing postoperative lingual neuropraxy. Attention should be particularly exercised to reduce the pressure of endotracheal tube or laryngeal mask on the tongue during head-and-neck operation to avert the occurrence of postoperative lingual neuropraxy.

  4. Risk Factors Associated with Discordant Ki-67 Levels between Preoperative Biopsy and Postoperative Surgical Specimens in Breast Cancers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyung Sun Kim

    Full Text Available The Ki-67 labelling index is significant for the management of breast cancer. However, the concordance of Ki-67 expression between preoperative biopsy and postoperative surgical specimens has not been well evaluated. This study aimed to find the correlation in Ki-67 expression between biopsy and surgical specimens and to determine the clinicopathological risk factors associated with discordant values.Ki-67 levels were immunohistochemically measured using paired biopsy and surgical specimens in 310 breast cancer patients between 2008 and 2013. ΔKi-67 was calculated by postoperative Ki-67 minus preoperative levels. The outliers of ΔKi-67 were defined as [lower quartile of ΔKi-67-1.5 × interquartile range (IQR] or (upper quartile + 1.5 × IQR and were evaluated according to clinicopathological parameters by logistic regression analysis.The median preoperative and postoperative Ki-67 levels were 10 (IQR, 15 and 10 (IQR, 25, respectively. Correlation of Ki-67 levels between the two specimens indicated a moderately positive relationship (coefficient = 0.676. Of 310 patients, 44 (14.2% showed outliers of ΔKi-67 (range, ≤-20 or ≥28. A significant association with poor prognostic factors was found among these patients. Multivariate analysis determined that significant risk factors for outliers of ΔKi-67 were tumor size >1 cm, negative progesterone receptor (PR expression, grade III cancer, and age ≤35 years. Among 171 patients with luminal human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative tumors, breast cancer subtype according to preoperative or postoperative Ki-67 levels discordantly changed in 46 (26.9% patients and a significant proportion of patients with discordant cases had ≥1 risk factor.Ki-67 expression showed a substantial concordance between biopsy and surgical specimens. Extremely discordant Ki-67 levels may be associated with aggressive tumor biology. In patients with luminal subtype disease, clinical application of Ki-67

  5. No more broken hearts: weight loss after bariatric surgery returns patients' postoperative risk to baseline following coronary surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baimas-George, Maria; Hennings, Dietric L; Al-Qurayshi, Zaid; Emad Kandil; DuCoin, Christopher

    2017-06-01

    The obesity epidemic is associated with a rise in coronary surgeries because obesity is a risk factor for coronary artery disease. Bariatric surgery is linked to improvement in cardiovascular co-morbidities and left ventricular function. No studies have investigated survival advantage in postoperative bariatric patients after coronary surgery. To determine if there is a benefit after coronary surgery in patients who have previously undergone bariatric surgery. National Inpatient Sample. We performed a retrospective, cross-sectional analysis of the National Inpatient Sample database from 2003 to 2010. We selected bariatric surgical patients who later underwent coronary surgery (n = 257). A comparison of postoperative complications and mortality after coronary surgery were compared with controls (n = 1442) using χ 2 tests, linear regression analysis, and multivariate logistical regression models. A subset population was identified as having undergone coronary surgery (n = 1699); of this population, 257 patients had previously undergone bariatric surgery. They were compared with 1442 controls. The majority was male (67.2%), white (82.6%), and treated in an urban environment (96.8%). Patients with bariatric surgery assumed the risk of postoperative complications after coronary surgery that was associated with their new body mass index (BMI) (BMI999.9, 95% CI .18 to>999.9, P = .07). Length of stay was significantly longer in postbariatric patients (BMIbariatric patients have a return to baseline risk of morbidity and mortality after coronary surgery. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Image-guided intensity modulated radiotherapy with helical tomotherapy for postoperative treatment of high-risk oral cavity cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Yu-Jen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study was to assess the treatment results and toxicity profiles of helical tomotherapy (HT for postoperative high-risk oral cavity cancer. Methods From December 6, 2006 through October 9, 2009, 19 postoperative high-risk oral cavity cancer patients were enrolled. All of the patients received HT with (84% or without (16% chemotherapy. Results The median follow-up time was 17 months. The 2-year overall survival, disease-free survival, locoregional control, and distant metastasis-free rates were 94%, 84%, 92%, and 94%, respectively. The package of overall treatment time > 13 wk, the interval between surgery and radiation ≤ 6 wk, and the overall treatment time of radiation ≤ 7 wk was 21%, 84%, and 79%, respectively. The percentage of grade 3 mucositis, dermatitis, and leucopenia was 42%, 5% and 5%, respectively. Conclusions HT achieved encouraging clinical outcomes for postoperative high-risk oral cavity cancer patients with high compliance. A long-term follow-up study is needed to confirm these preliminary findings.

  7. Image-guided intensity modulated radiotherapy with helical tomotherapy for postoperative treatment of high-risk oral cavity cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsieh, Chen-Hsi; Hsieh, Yen-Ping; Lin, Shoei Long; Chen, Chun-Yi; Chen, Chien-An; Shueng, Pei-Wei; Kuo, Ying-Shiung; Liao, Li-Jen; Hu, Kawang-Yu; Lin, Shih-Chiang; Wu, Le-Jung; Lin, Yu-Chin; Chen, Yu-Jen; Wang, Li-Ying

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the treatment results and toxicity profiles of helical tomotherapy (HT) for postoperative high-risk oral cavity cancer. From December 6, 2006 through October 9, 2009, 19 postoperative high-risk oral cavity cancer patients were enrolled. All of the patients received HT with (84%) or without (16%) chemotherapy. The median follow-up time was 17 months. The 2-year overall survival, disease-free survival, locoregional control, and distant metastasis-free rates were 94%, 84%, 92%, and 94%, respectively. The package of overall treatment time > 13 wk, the interval between surgery and radiation ≤ 6 wk, and the overall treatment time of radiation ≤ 7 wk was 21%, 84%, and 79%, respectively. The percentage of grade 3 mucositis, dermatitis, and leucopenia was 42%, 5% and 5%, respectively. HT achieved encouraging clinical outcomes for postoperative high-risk oral cavity cancer patients with high compliance. A long-term follow-up study is needed to confirm these preliminary findings

  8. Chest cage angle difference and rotation of main thoracic curve are independent risk factors of postoperative shoulder imbalance in surgically treated patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yagi, Mitsuru; Takemitsu, Masakazu; Machida, Masafumi

    2013-09-01

    Retrospective case series of surgically treated adolescent patients with scoliosis. To assess the prevalence and independent risk factors for postoperative shoulder imbalance in surgically treated adolescent patients with idiopathic scoliosis. Despite recent reports that have identified risk factors for postoperative shoulder imbalance, the relative risks remain unclear. A retrospective review of 85 consecutive patients treated with thoracic fusion with a minimum 2-year follow-up (mean, 3.1 yr) was conducted to investigate the patient radiographical measurements and demographics. Shoulder height difference (SHD) was measured as the graded height difference of the soft tissue shadows. A SHD more than 2 cm indicated an unbalanced shoulder. Patient demographics and radiographical data were studied to determine risk factors for postoperative SHD. The potential risk factors included age, sex, Risser sign, Cobb angle, flexibility, and apical vertebral rotation (AVR) of the main curve, upper-instrumented vertebra level, SHD, and clavicle chest cage angle difference (CCAD). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the independent risk factors for postoperative shoulder imbalance. Of the 85 patients, 21 patients presented postoperative shoulder imbalance. The univariate analysis indicated age, Risser sign, Cobb angle of the main curve, AVR of the main curve, and CCAD as risk factors, but the multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that only AVR of the main curve and CCAD were independent risk factors for postoperative shoulder imbalance (AVR, P = 0.04, odds ratio (OR): 3.54; CCAD, P = 0.01, OR: 5.10). Postoperative shoulder imbalance was observed in 25% of the surgically treated adolescent patients. The CCAD and AVR of the main thoracic curve were independent risk factors for postoperative shoulder imbalance in surgically treated patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. The significant correlation between CCAD and

  9. The prognostic value of irradiated lung volumes on the prediction of intra-/ post-operative mortality in patients after neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy for esophageal cancer. A retrospective multicenter study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kup, Philipp Günther; Nieder, Carsten; Geinitz, Hans; Henkenberens, Christoph; Besserer, Angela; Oechsner, Markus; Schill, Sabine; Mücke, Ralph; Scherer, Vera; Combs, Stephanie E; Adamietz, Irenäus A; Fakhrian, Khashayar

    2015-01-01

    To assess the association between dosimetric factors of the lung and incidence of intra- and postoperative mortality among esophageal cancer (EC) patients treated with neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy (N-RCT) followed by surgery (S). Inclusion criteria were: age volume histogram (DVH) data. One-hundred thirty-five patients met our inclusion criteria. Median age was 62 years. N-RCT consisted of 36 - 50.4 Gy (median 45 Gy), 1.8 - 2 Gy per fraction. Concomitant chemotherapy consisted of 5-Fluoruracil (5-FU) and cisplatin in 113 patients and cisplatin and taxan-derivates in 15 patients. Seven patients received a single cytotoxic agent. In 130 patients an abdominothoracal and in 5 patients a transhiatal resection was performed. The following dosimetric parameters were generated from the total lung DVH: mean dose, V5, V10, V15, V20, V30, V40, V45 and V50. The primary endpoint was the rate of intra- and postoperative mortality (from the start of N-RCT to 60 days after surgical resection). A total of ten postoperative deaths (7%) were observed: 3 within 30 days (2%) and 7 between 30 and 60 days after surgical intervention (5%); no patient died during the operation. In the univariate analysis, weight loss (≥10% in 6 months prior to diagnosis, risk ratio: 1.60, 95%CI: 0.856-2.992, p=0.043), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group-performance status (ECOG 2 vs. 1, risk ratio: 1.931, 95%CI: 0.898-4.150, p=0.018) and postoperative pulmonary plus non-pulmonary complications (risk ratio: 2.533, 95%CI: 0.978-6.563, p=0.004) were significantly associated with postoperative mortality. There was no significant association between postoperative mortality and irradiated lung volumes. Lung V45 was the only variable which was significantly associated with higher incidence of postoperative pulmonary plus non-pulmonary complications (Exp(B): 1.285, 95%CI 1.029-1.606, p=0.027), but not with the postoperative pulmonary complications (Exp(B): 1.249, 95%CI 0.999-1.561, p=0.051). Irradiated lung

  10. [Risk factors and frequency of postoperative nausea and vomiting in patients operated under general anesthesia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowska-Gaweł, Anna; Porzych, Katarzyna; Piskunowicz, Grazyna

    2006-01-01

    Postoperative nausea and vomiting belong to fairly frequent postoperative complications, but they occupy a distant position on the list of complications, which most probably result from a general conviction that they do not pose a direct threat to patients. The objective of this work is specification of factors facilitating occurrence of postoperative nausea and vomiting, and determination of frequency of their occurrence in patients operated under general anesthesia. Questionnaire about the occurrence of postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV), was carried out and included 253 adult sick persons (102 female and 151 male patients), in the age between 23-76 (average 42.3 +/- 6.1 years), who had undergone operative procedure in the field of abdominal and urology surgery, orthopedic, thyroid surgery and laryngological, ophthalmology and plastic surgery, under general anesthesia. The questionnaire form included preoperative characteristics of a patient (age, sex, smoking, motion sickness and migraine headaches in history, and PONV occurring earlier), type of operative procedure, used anesthetic agents, and analgesic agents applied in postoperative analgesia. The anesthesiologist administering anesthetic was not informed about the investigation carried out and did not receive any additional pieces of advice regarding the type of applied anesthetic agents or the method of conducting postoperative analgesia. Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) was used in the evaluation of nausea. Nausea and vomiting were assessed every two hours within the first postoperative 12 hours and every 4 hours for the next 24 hours. Nausea and vomiting were treated as two separate complications. Nausea itself occurred in 22.7% of patients; whereas vomiting in 13.2%. Both symptoms occurred in 14.2% of patients. Nausea occurred 4.1 +/- 0.8 hours after operation; whereas vomiting after 5.3 +/- 1.1 hours. Women suffered more often than men from (R = 0.678 p patients suffering from PONV earlier (R = 0

  11. Identifying patients at risk of intraoperative and postoperative transfusion in isolated CABG: toward selective conservation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Rakesh C; Légaré, Jean-Francois; Buth, Karen J; Sullivan, John A; Hirsch, Gregory M

    2004-11-01

    Allogeneic blood product use during cardiac operation is often reported to exceed 40% despite published guidelines and costly blood conservation strategies. We developed a predictive model, based on eight preoperative risk factors, of allogeneic blood product transfusion rates in patients undergoing a cardiac procedure. All 3,046 consecutive, isolated coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) procedures at a university hospital from 1995 to 1998 were included. A logistic regression model was created to identify independent predictors of allogeneic blood product transfusion. This model was validated using a prospective patient sample. Overall use of allogeneic blood products was 23% with a crude operative mortality of 2.1%. In isolated, elective, first-time CABG cases, 16.9% received allogeneic blood products. Independent predictors of blood product usage in CABG patients were preoperative hemoglobin 12.0 or less, emergent operation, renal failure, female sex, age 70 years or older, left ventricular ejection fraction 0.40 or less, redo procedure, and low body surface area. Prospective validation of this model on 2,117 consecutive isolated CABG patients demonstrated an observed-to-expected allogeneic blood product transfusion rate ratio of 1.06. This internally validated logistic regression risk model is a sensitive and specific predictor of allogeneic blood product use in patients undergoing isolated CABG. Utilization of this model allows for preoperative risk stratification and may allow for more rational resource allocation of costly blood conservation strategies and blood bank resources.

  12. Risk prediction of hepatotoxicity in paracetamol poisoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Anselm; Graudins, Andis

    2017-09-01

    Paracetamol (acetaminophen) poisoning is the most common cause of acute liver failure in the developed world. A paracetamol treatment nomogram has been used for over four decades to help determine whether patients will develop hepatotoxicity without acetylcysteine treatment, and thus indicates those needing treatment. Despite this, a small proportion of patients still develop hepatotoxicity. More accurate risk predictors would be useful to increase the early detection of patients with the potential to develop hepatotoxicity despite acetylcysteine treatment. Similarly, there would be benefit in early identification of those with a low likelihood of developing hepatotoxicity, as this group may be safely treated with an abbreviated acetylcysteine regimen. To review the current literature related to risk prediction tools that can be used to identify patients at increased risk of hepatotoxicity. A systematic literature review was conducted using the search terms: "paracetamol" OR "acetaminophen" AND "overdose" OR "toxicity" OR "risk prediction rules" OR "hepatotoxicity" OR "psi parameter" OR "multiplication product" OR "half-life" OR "prothrombin time" OR "AST/ALT (aspartate transaminase/alanine transaminase)" OR "dose" OR "biomarkers" OR "nomogram". The search was limited to human studies without language restrictions, of Medline (1946 to May 2016), PubMed and EMBASE. Original articles pertaining to the theme were identified from January 1974 to May 2016. Of the 13,975 articles identified, 60 were relevant to the review. Paracetamol treatment nomograms: Paracetamol treatment nomograms have been used for decades to help decide the need for acetylcysteine, but rarely used to determine the risk of hepatotoxicity with treatment. Reported paracetamol dose and concentration: A dose ingestion >12 g or serum paracetamol concentration above the treatment thresholds on the paracetamol nomogram are associated with a greater risk of hepatotoxicity. Paracetamol elimination half

  13. Thirty-day Postoperative Complications following Primary Total Knee Arthroplasty: A Retrospective Study of Incidence and Risk Factors at a Single Center in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Feng

    2017-01-01

    Conclusions: This study highlighted complications with cardiac and respiratory origins as the most common complications within 30 postoperative days following primary TKA. The BMI of ≥30.0 kg/m2 and age ≥80 years were significant risk factors for 30-day postoperative complications.

  14. Prediction of residual lung function after lung surgery, and examination of blood perfusion in the pre- and postoperative lung using three-dimensional SPECT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shimatani, Shinji [Toho Univ., Tokyo (Japan). School of Medicine

    2001-01-01

    In order to predict postoperative pulmonary function after lung surgery, preoperative {sup 99m}Tc-macroaggregated albumin (MAA) lung perfusion scans with single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) were performed. Spirometry was also performed before and 4-6 months after surgery in 40 patients. In addition, changes in blood perfusion in the pre- and postoperative lung were examined by postoperative lung perfusion scans in 18 of the 40 patients. We measured the three-dimensional (3-D) imaging volume of the operative and contralateral lungs using the volumes rendering method at blood perfusion thresholds of 20, 50 and 75%, utilizing {sup 99m}Tc-MAA lung perfusion, and predicted pulmonary function by means of the measured volumes. We examined the correlation between predicted and the measured values of postoperative pulmonary function, forced vital capacity (FVC) and forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV{sub 1.0}). The correlation between FEV{sub 1.0} predicted by SPECT (threshold 50%) and measured postoperative lung function resembled that between lung function predicted by the standard planar method and measured FEV{sub 1.0} in the lobectomy group. We then examined the ratios of both pre- and postoperative blood perfusion volumes obtained using 3-D imaging at lung perfusion threshold ranges of 10% each (PV20-29, PV30-39) to pre- and postoperative total perfusion (PV20-100). In the lobectomy group, the postoperative PV20-29/PV20-100 value was significantly higher for the operative side lung than the preoperative PV20-29/PV20-100 value, and the postoperative PV50-59, 60-69, 70-79, 80-89 and 90-100/PV20-100 values were significantly lower than the respective preoperative values. However, in the contralateral lung, the respective pre- and postoperative PV/PV20-100 values were almost identical. These findings suggest that the rate of low blood perfusion increased while the rate of middle to high perfusion decreased in the lobectomy group in the operative

  15. Towards virtual surgery in oral cancer to predict postoperative oral functions preoperatively

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Alphen, M.J.A.; Kreeft, A.M.; van der Heijden, Ferdinand; Smeele, L.E.; Balm, A.J.M.; Balm, Alfonsus Jacobus Maria

    2013-01-01

    Our aim was to develop a dynamic virtual model of the oral cavity and oropharynx so that we could incorporate patient-specific factors into the prediction of functional loss after advanced resections for oral cancer. After a virtual resection, functional consequences can be assessed, and a more

  16. Postoperative risks associated with alcohol screening depend on documented drinking at the time of surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubinsky, Anna D; Bishop, Michael J; Maynard, Charles

    2013-01-01

    Both AUDIT-C alcohol screening scores up to a year before surgery and clinical documentation of drinking over 2 drinks per day immediately prior to surgery ("documented drinking >2d/d") are associated with increased postoperative complications and health care utilization. The purpose of this study...

  17. Thromboembolic prophylaxis as a risk factor for postoperative complications after breast cancer surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis, Esbern; Hørby, John; Sørensen, Lars Tue

    2004-01-01

    Hematoma and bruising (sugillation) are frequent problems after operations for primary breast cancer. In the present study we evaluated the influence of various methods of perioperative thromboembolic prophylaxis on the postoperative incidence of hematoma and suggilation. From June 1994 through A...

  18. The association between caudal anesthesia and increased risk of postoperative surgical complications in boys undergoing hypospadias repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taicher, Brad M; Routh, Jonathan C; Eck, John B; Ross, Sherry S; Wiener, John S; Ross, Allison K

    2017-07-01

    Recent reports have suggested that caudal anesthesia may be associated with an increased risk of postoperative surgical complications. We examined our experience with caudal anesthesia in hypospadias repair to evaluate for increased risk of urethrocutaneous fistula or glanular dehiscence. All hypospadias repairs performed by a single surgeon in 2001-2014 were reviewed. Staged or revision surgeries were excluded. Patient age, weight, hypospadias severity, surgery duration, month and year of surgery, caudal anesthesia use, and postoperative complications were recorded. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were performed. We identified 395 single-stage primary hypospadias repairs. Mean age was 15.6 months; 326 patients had distal (83%) and 69 had proximal (17%) hypospadias. Caudal anesthetics were used in 230 (58%) cases; 165 patients (42%) underwent local penile block at the discretion of the surgeon and/or anesthesiologist. Complications of urethrocutaneous fistula or glanular deshiscence occurred in 22 patients (5.6%) and were associated with caudal anesthetic use (OR 16.5, 95% CI 2.2-123.8, P = 0.007), proximal hypospadias (OR 8.2, 95% CI 3.3-20.0, P anesthesia was associated with an over 13-fold increase in the odds of developing postoperative surgical complications in boys undergoing hypospadias repair even after adjusting for urethral meatus location. Until further investigation occurs, clinicians should carefully consider the use of caudal anesthesia for children undergoing hypospadias repair. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Audit of co-management and critical care outreach for high risk postoperative patients (The POST audit).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Story, D A; Shelton, A; Jones, D; Heland, M; Belomo, R

    2013-11-01

    Co-management and critical care outreach for high risk surgical patients have been proposed to decrease postoperative complications and mortality. We proposed that a clinical project with postoperative comanagement and critical care outreach, the Post Operative Surveillance Team: (POST), would be associated with decreased hospital length of stay. We conducted a retrospective before (control group) and after (POST group) audit of this hospital program. POST was staffed for four months in 2010 by two intensive care nurses and two senior registrars who conducted daily ward rounds for the first five postoperative days on high risk patients undergoing inpatient general or urological surgery. The primary endpoint was length of hospital stay and secondary endpoints were Medical Emergency Team (MET) calls, cardiac arrests and in-hospital mortality. There were 194 patients in the POST group and 1,185 in the control group. The length of stay in the POST group, median nine days (Inter-quartile range [IQR]: 5 to 17 days), was longer than the control group, median seven days (IQR: 4 to 13 days): difference two days longer (95.0% confidence interval [95.0% CI]: 1 to 3 days longer, P audit found that the POST service was not associated with reduced length of stay. Models of co-management, different to POST, or with different performance metrics, could be tested.

  20. Co-registered perfusion SPECT/CT: Utility for prediction of improved postoperative outcome in lung volume reduction surgery candidates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takenaka, Daisuke; Ohno, Yoshiharu; Koyama, Hisanobu; Nogami, Munenobu; Onishi, Yumiko; Matsumoto, Keiko; Yoshikawa, Takeshi; Matsumoto, Sumiaki; Sugimura, Kazuro

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: To directly compare the capabilities of perfusion scan, SPECT, co-registered SPECT/CT, and quantitatively and qualitatively assessed MDCT (i.e. quantitative CT and qualitative CT) for predicting postoperative clinical outcome for lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS) candidates. Materials and methods: Twenty-five consecutive candidates (19 men and six women, age range: 42-72 years) for LVRS underwent preoperative CT and perfusion scan with SPECT. Clinical outcome of LVRS for all subjects was also assessed by determining the difference between pre- and postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV 1 ) and 6-min walking distance (6MWD). All SPECT examinations were performed on a SPECT scanner, and co-registered to thin-section CT by using commercially available software. On planar imaging, SPECT and SPECT/CT, upper versus lower zone or lobe ratios (U/Ls) were calculated from regional uptakes between upper and lower lung fields in the operated lung. On quantitatively assessed CT, U/L for all subjects was assessed from regional functional lung volumes. On qualitatively assessed CT, planar imaging, SPECT and co-registered SPECT/CT, U/Ls were assessed with a 4-point visual scoring system. To compare capabilities of predicting clinical outcome, each U/L was statistically correlated with the corresponding clinical outcome. Results: Significantly fair or moderate correlations were observed between quantitatively and qualitatively assessed U/Ls obtained with all four methods and clinical outcomes (-0.60 ≤ r ≤ -0.42, p < 0.05). Conclusion: Co-registered perfusion SPECT/CT has better correlation with clinical outcome in LVRS candidates than do planar imaging, SPECT or qualitatively assessed CT, and is at least as valid as quantitatively assessed CT.

  1. Long-term outcomes following laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding: postoperative psychological sequelae predict outcome at 5-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholtz, Samantha; Bidlake, Louise; Morgan, John; Fiennes, Alberic; El-Etar, Ashraf; Lacey, John Hubert; McCluskey, Sara

    2007-09-01

    NICE guidelines state that patients with psychological contra-indications should not be considered for bariatric surgery, including Laparoscopic Adjustable Gastric Banding (LAGB) surgery as treatment of morbid obesity, although no consistent correlation between psychiatric illness and long-term outcome in LAGB has been established. This is to our knowledge the first study to evaluate long-term outcomes in LAGB for a full range of DSM-IV defined psychiatric and eating disorders, and forms part of a research portfolio developed by the authors aimed at defining psychological predictors of bariatric surgery in the short-, medium- and long-term. Case notes of 37 subjects operated on between April 1997 and June 2000, who had undergone structured clinical interview during pre-surgical assessment to yield diagnoses of mental and eating disorders according to DSM-IV criteria were analyzed according to a set of operationally defined criteria. Statistical analysis was carried out to compare those with a poor outcome and those considered to have a good outcome in terms of psychiatric profile. In this group of mainly female, Caucasian subjects, ranging in age from 27 to 60 years, one-third were diagnosed with a mental disorder according to DSM-IV criteria. The development of postoperative DSM-IV defined binge eating disorder (BED) or depression strongly predicted poor surgical outcome, but pre-surgical psychiatric factors alone did not. Although pre-surgical psychiatric assessment alone cannot predict outcome, an absence of preoperative psychiatric illness should not reassure surgeons who should be mindful of postoperative psychiatric sequelae, particularly BED. The importance of providing an integrated biopsychosocial model of care in bariatric teams is highlighted.

  2. Co-registered perfusion SPECT/CT: Utility for prediction of improved postoperative outcome in lung volume reduction surgery candidates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takenaka, Daisuke [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan); Ohno, Yoshiharu, E-mail: yosirad@kobe-u.ac.j [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan); Koyama, Hisanobu [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan); Nogami, Munenobu [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan); Division of Image-Based Medicine, Institute of Biomedical Research and Innovation, 2-2, Minatojima Minamimachi Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0047 (Japan); Onishi, Yumiko [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan); Matsumoto, Keiko [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan); Department of Radiology, University of Yamanashi, 1110 Shimogato, Chuo, Yamanashi, 409-3898 (Japan); Yoshikawa, Takeshi; Matsumoto, Sumiaki; Sugimura, Kazuro [Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-2 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, 650-0017 (Japan)

    2010-06-15

    Purpose: To directly compare the capabilities of perfusion scan, SPECT, co-registered SPECT/CT, and quantitatively and qualitatively assessed MDCT (i.e. quantitative CT and qualitative CT) for predicting postoperative clinical outcome for lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS) candidates. Materials and methods: Twenty-five consecutive candidates (19 men and six women, age range: 42-72 years) for LVRS underwent preoperative CT and perfusion scan with SPECT. Clinical outcome of LVRS for all subjects was also assessed by determining the difference between pre- and postoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV{sub 1}) and 6-min walking distance (6MWD). All SPECT examinations were performed on a SPECT scanner, and co-registered to thin-section CT by using commercially available software. On planar imaging, SPECT and SPECT/CT, upper versus lower zone or lobe ratios (U/Ls) were calculated from regional uptakes between upper and lower lung fields in the operated lung. On quantitatively assessed CT, U/L for all subjects was assessed from regional functional lung volumes. On qualitatively assessed CT, planar imaging, SPECT and co-registered SPECT/CT, U/Ls were assessed with a 4-point visual scoring system. To compare capabilities of predicting clinical outcome, each U/L was statistically correlated with the corresponding clinical outcome. Results: Significantly fair or moderate correlations were observed between quantitatively and qualitatively assessed U/Ls obtained with all four methods and clinical outcomes (-0.60 {<=} r {<=} -0.42, p < 0.05). Conclusion: Co-registered perfusion SPECT/CT has better correlation with clinical outcome in LVRS candidates than do planar imaging, SPECT or qualitatively assessed CT, and is at least as valid as quantitatively assessed CT.

  3. Shoulder dystocia: risk factors, predictability, and preventability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Shobha H; Sokol, Robert J

    2014-06-01

    Shoulder dystocia remains an unpredictable obstetric emergency, striking fear in the hearts of obstetricians both novice and experienced. While outcomes that lead to permanent injury are rare, almost all obstetricians with enough years of practice have participated in a birth with a severe shoulder dystocia and are at least aware of cases that have resulted in significant neurologic injury or even neonatal death. This is despite many years of research trying to understand the risk factors associated with it, all in an attempt primarily to characterize when the risk is high enough to avoid vaginal delivery altogether and prevent a shoulder dystocia, whose attendant morbidities are estimated to be at a rate as high as 16-48%. The study of shoulder dystocia remains challenging due to its generally retrospective nature, as well as dependence on proper identification and documentation. As a result, the prediction of shoulder dystocia remains elusive, and the cost of trying to prevent one by performing a cesarean delivery remains high. While ultimately it is the injury that is the key concern, rather than the shoulder dystocia itself, it is in the presence of an identified shoulder dystocia that occurrence of injury is most common. The majority of shoulder dystocia cases occur without major risk factors. Moreover, even the best antenatal predictors have a low positive predictive value. Shoulder dystocia therefore cannot be reliably predicted, and the only preventative measure is cesarean delivery. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Usefulness of postoperative hip irradiation in the prevention of heterotopic bone formation in a high risk group of patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacLennan, I.; Keys, H.M.; Evarts, C.M.; Rubin, P.

    1984-01-01

    Heterotopic ossification is a complication of total hip arthroplasty in 14 to 30% of patients. Significant functional impairment will occur in up to 28% of patients with ectopic bone. The high risk group includes those with preexisting heterotopic bone in either hip, those suffering from hypertrophic osteoarthritis or ankylosing spondylitis and patients who have had multiple procedures on the hip. Fifty-eight patients (67 hips) were irradiated after surgical removal of ectopic bone (53 hips) or received radiation prophylaxis of heterotopic ossification (14 hips). Ninety-five percent of patients had either no bone visible or insignificant amounts of ectopic bone visible on postoperative hip X-rays. Only 5% of patients showed significant persistence of ectopic bone. Postoperative hip function was dramatically improved compared to preoperative function in all patients treated. The importance of early commencement of irradiation is emphasized

  5. Persistent Dysphagia After Induction Chemotherapy in Patients with Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Predicts Poor Post-Operative Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, Michael J; Adelstein, David J; Allende, Daniela S; Bodmann, Joanna W; Ives, Denise I; Murthy, Sudish C; Raymond, Daniel; Raja, Siva; Rodriguez, Cristina P; Sohal, Davendra; Stephans, Kevin L; Videtic, Gregory M M; Rybicki, Lisa A

    2017-06-01

    Preoperative therapy is frequently employed in the management of esophageal adenocarcinoma. However, many patients are found to have advanced pathologic stage and have poor outcomes. A prognostic factor which identifies this patient population before surgery would be desirable, as alternative treatment strategies may be warranted. Between 2/08 and 1/12, 60 evaluable patients with locally advanced esophageal adenocarcinoma enrolled in single-arm phase II trial of induction chemotherapy, surgery, and post-operative adjuvant chemo-radiotherapy (CRT). A clinical stage of T3, N1, or M1a (AJCC 6th) was required for eligibility. Induction chemotherapy with epirubicin 50 mg/m 2 d1, oxaliplatin 130 mg/m 2 d1, and fluorouracil 200 mg/m 2 /day continuous infusion for 3 weeks, was given every 21 days for 3 cycles and was followed by surgical resection. Adjuvant CRT consisted of 50-55 Gy @ 1.8-2.0 Gy/day and 2 cycles of cisplatin (20 mg/m 2 /day) and fluorouracil (1000 mg/m 2 /day) given as 96-h infusions during weeks 1 and 4 of radiotherapy. Dysphagia was assessed at baseline and after induction chemotherapy. Persistent dysphagia was associated with worse distant metastatic control [HR 3.48 (1.43-8.43), p = 0.006], recurrence free survival [HR 3.04 (1.34-6.92), p = 0.008], and overall survival [HR 3.31 (1.43-7.66), p = 0.005]. Persistent dysphagia was associated with more advanced pathologic T descriptor (pT) (p = 0.048) and N descriptor (pN) (p = 0.002), a greater median number of involved lymph nodes (3 v 1, p = 0.003), and greater residual tumor viability (p = 0.05). No patients with persistent dysphagia had pT0-T2 or pN0 disease. Persistent dysphagia after induction chemotherapy is associated with more advanced pathologic stage and inferior outcomes.

  6. New methods for fall risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ejupi, Andreas; Lord, Stephen R; Delbaere, Kim

    2014-09-01

    Accidental falls are the leading cause of injury-related death and hospitalization in old age, with over one-third of the older adults experiencing at least one fall or more each year. Because of limited healthcare resources, regular objective fall risk assessments are not possible in the community on a large scale. New methods for fall prediction are necessary to identify and monitor those older people at high risk of falling who would benefit from participating in falls prevention programmes. Technological advances have enabled less expensive ways to quantify physical fall risk in clinical practice and in the homes of older people. Recently, several studies have demonstrated that sensor-based fall risk assessments of postural sway, functional mobility, stepping and walking can discriminate between fallers and nonfallers. Recent research has used low-cost, portable and objective measuring instruments to assess fall risk in older people. Future use of these technologies holds promise for assessing fall risk accurately in an unobtrusive manner in clinical and daily life settings.

  7. Nonparametric predictive pairwise comparison with competing risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen-Maturi, Tahani

    2014-01-01

    In reliability, failure data often correspond to competing risks, where several failure modes can cause a unit to fail. This paper presents nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) for pairwise comparison with competing risks data, assuming that the failure modes are independent. These failure modes could be the same or different among the two groups, and these can be both observed and unobserved failure modes. NPI is a statistical approach based on few assumptions, with inferences strongly based on data and with uncertainty quantified via lower and upper probabilities. The focus is on the lower and upper probabilities for the event that the lifetime of a future unit from one group, say Y, is greater than the lifetime of a future unit from the second group, say X. The paper also shows how the two groups can be compared based on particular failure mode(s), and the comparison of the two groups when some of the competing risks are combined is discussed

  8. The prediction of the bankruptcy risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe DUMITRESCU

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The study research results of the bankruptcy risk in the actual economic crisis are very weak. This issue is very important for the economy of every country, no matter what their actual development level.The necessity of bankruptcy risk prediction appears in every company,but also in the related institutions like financial companies, investors, suppliers, customers.The bankruptcy risk made and makes the object of many studies of research that want to identify: the moment of the appearance of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete at the reach of this state, the indicators that express the best this orientation (to the bankruptcy.The threats to the firms impose the knowledge by the managers,permanently of the economic-financial situations, of the vulnerable areas and of those with potential of development. Thus, these must identify and gesture the threats that would stop the fulfillment of the established purposes.

  9. Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (pKorean women, especially urban women.

  10. Preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative risk factors for anastomotic leakage after laparoscopic low anterior resection with double stapling technique anastomosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawada, Kenji; Sakai, Yoshiharu

    2016-07-07

    Anastomotic leakage (AL) is one of the most devastating complications after rectal cancer surgery. The double stapling technique has greatly facilitated intestinal reconstruction especially for anastomosis after low anterior resection (LAR). Risk factor analyses for AL after open LAR have been widely reported. However, a few studies have analyzed the risk factors for AL after laparoscopic LAR. Laparoscopic rectal surgery provides an excellent operative field in a narrow pelvic space, and enables total mesorectal excision surgery and preservation of the autonomic nervous system with greater precision. However, rectal transection using a laparoscopic linear stapler is relatively difficult compared with open surgery because of the width and limited performance of the linear stapler. Moreover, laparoscopic LAR exhibits a different postoperative course compared with open LAR, which suggests that the risk factors for AL after laparoscopic LAR may also differ from those after open LAR. In this review, we will discuss the risk factors for AL after laparoscopic LAR.

  11. Postoperative hypoparathyroidism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, R.S.

    1999-01-01

    It is essential to preserve as many of the parathyroid glands, as possible, during surgery of the thyroid gland. This is achieved by visualizing them and by minimal handling of the glands. Truncal ligation of the inferior thyroid artery is quite safe. Capsular ligation of the branches of the artery is theoretically superior but requires a greater degree of skill and experience in thyroid surgery. It also puts the recurrent laryngeal nerve at a greater risk of injury. Calcitriol or 1.25 dihydroxy vitamin D is a very useful drug in managing patients with severe post-operative hypoparathyroidism

  12. Risk of post-operative pneumocephalus in patients with obstructive sleep apnea undergoing transsphenoidal surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White-Dzuro, Gabrielle A; Maynard, Ken; Zuckerman, Scott L; Weaver, Kyle D; Russell, Paul T; Clavenna, Matthew J; Chambless, Lola B

    2016-07-01

    Patients undergoing transsphenoidal surgery (TSS) have an anterior skull base defect that limits the use of positive pressure ventilation post-operatively. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) can be seen in these patients and is treated with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP). In our study we documented the incidence of pre-existing OSA and reported the incidence of diagnosed pneumocephalus and its relationship to OSA. A retrospective review was conducted from a surgical outcomes database. Electronic medical records were reviewed, with an emphasis on diagnosis of OSA and documented symptomatic pneumocephalus. A total of 324 patients underwent 349 TSS for sellar mass resection. The average body mass index of the study cohort was 32.5kg/m(2). Sixty-nine patients (21%) had documented OSA. Only 25 out of 69 (36%) had a documented post-operative CPAP plan. Out of all 349 procedures, there were two incidents of pneumocephalus diagnosed. Neither of the patients had pre-existing OSA. One in five patients in our study had pre-existing OSA. Most patients returned to CPAP use within several weeks of TSS for resection of a sellar mass. Neither of the patients with pneumocephalus had pre-existing OSA and none of the patients with early re-initiation of CPAP developed this complication. This study provides preliminary evidence that resuming CPAP early in the post-operative period might be less dangerous than previously assumed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Comparing the Effectiveness of Sagittal Balance, Foraminal Stenosis, and Preoperative Cord Rotation in Predicting Postoperative C5 Palsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chugh, Arunit J S; Weinberg, Douglas S; Alonso, Fernando; Eubanks, Jason D

    2017-11-01

    Retrospective cohort review. To determine whether preoperative cord rotation is independently correlated with C5 palsy when analyzed alongside measures of sagittal balance and foraminal stenosis. Postoperative C5 palsy is a well-documented complication of cervical procedures with a prevalence of 4%-8%. Recent studies have shown a correlation with preoperative spinal cord rotation. There have been few studies, however, that have examined the role of sagittal balance and foraminal stenosis in the development of C5 palsy. A total of 77 patients who underwent cervical decompression-10 of whom developed C5 palsy-were reviewed. Sagittal balance was assessed using curvature angle and curvature index on radiographs and magnetic resonance image (MRI). Cord rotation was assessed on axial MRI. C4-C5 foraminal stenosis was assessed on sagittal MRI using area measurements and a grading scale. Demographics and information on surgical approach were gathered from chart review. Correlation with C5 palsy was performed by point-biserial, χ, and regression analyses. Point-biserial analysis indicated that only cord rotation showed significance (Pbalance did not correlate with presence of C5 palsy. Logistic regression model yielded cord rotation as the only significant independent predictor of C5 palsy. For every degree of axial cord rotation, the likelihood ratio for suffering a C5 palsy was 3.93 (95% confidence interval, 2.01-8.66; Ppoints to mechanisms other than direct compression as the etiology. In addition, the lack of correlation with postoperative changes in sagittal balance hints that measures of curvature angle and curvature index may not be appropriate to accurately predict this complication. Level 3.

  14. Older age at diagnosis of Hirschsprung disease decreases risk of postoperative enterocolitis, but resection of additional ganglionated bowel does not.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haricharan, Ramanath N; Seo, Jeong-Meen; Kelly, David R; Mroczek-Musulman, Elizabeth C; Aprahamian, Charles J; Morgan, Traci L; Georgeson, Keith E; Harmon, Carroll M; Saito, Jacqueline M; Barnhart, Douglas C

    2008-06-01

    This study was conducted to determine the effect of age at diagnosis and length of ganglionated bowel resected on postoperative Hirschsprung-associated enterocolitis (HAEC). Children who underwent endorectal pull-through (ERPT) between January 1993 and December 2004 were retrospectively reviewed. t Test, analysis of variance, Kaplan-Meier, and Cox's proportional hazards analyses were performed. Fifty-two children with Hirschsprung disease (median age, 25 days; range, 2 days-16 years) were included. Nineteen (37%) had admissions for HAEC. Proportional hazards regression showed that HAEC admissions decreased by 30% with each doubling of age at diagnosis (P = .03) and increased 9-fold when postoperative stricture was present (P 5 cm]). No significant difference in the number of HAEC admissions during initial 2 years post-ERPT was seen between groups A (n = 18) and B (n = 18). The study had a power of 0.8 to detect a difference of 1 admission over 2 years. Children diagnosed with Hirschsprung disease at younger ages are at a greater risk for postoperative enterocolitis. Excising a longer margin of ganglionated bowel (>5 cm) does not seem to be beneficial in decreasing HAEC admissions.

  15. The Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2-Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF): incremental validity in predicting early postoperative outcomes in spine surgery candidates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marek, Ryan J; Block, Andrew R; Ben-Porath, Yossef S

    2015-03-01

    A substantial proportion of individuals who undergo surgical procedures to relieve spine pain continue to report significant pain and dysfunction after recovery. Psychopathology and patient expectations have been linked to poor results, leading to an increasing reliance on presurgical psychological screening (PPS) as part of the surgical diagnostic process. The original Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI; Hathaway & McKinley, 1943) and the MMPI-2 (Butcher, Graham, Ben-Porath, Tellegen, & Dahlstrom, 2001) were among the measures most commonly used in PPS evaluations and research. This study focuses on the newest version of the test, the MMPI-2-Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF; Ben-Porath & Tellegen, 2008/2011; Tellegen & Ben-Porath, 2008/2011) as a predictor of outcomes for spine surgery candidates. Using a sample of 172 men and 210 women who underwent a PPS, we examined the ability of MMPI-2-RF scale scores to predict early surgical outcomes independent of other presurgical risk factors identified by other means, as well as patients' presurgical expectations. MMPI-2-RF results accounted for up to 11% of additional variance in measures of early postoperative functioning. MMPI-2-RF scales that assess for emotional/internalizing problems, specifically Demoralization, measures of somatoform dysfunction, and interpersonal problems contributed most to the prediction of diminished outcome. 2015 APA, all rights reserved

  16. Prolonged Duration of Surgery Predicts Postoperative Hypoparathyroidism among Patients Undergoing Total Thyroidectomy in a Tertiary Referral Centre

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne-Holm, Emilie; Holst Hahn, Christoffer

    2017-01-01

    , to identify early predictive risk factors. METHODS: Based on a single-institution retrospective review, we identified 582 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy between January 2010 and March 2015. Information on age, gender, pathological diagnosis, duration of surgery, autotransplantation of parathyroid...

  17. Prediction of post-operative necrosis after mastectomy: A pilot study utilizing optical diffusion imaging spectroscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xie Xian-Jin

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Flap necrosis and epidermolysis occurs in 18-30% of all mastectomies. Complications may be prevented by intra-operative detection of ischemia. Currently, no technique enables quantitative valuation of mastectomy skin perfusion. Optical Diffusion Imaging Spectroscopy (ViOptix T.Ox Tissue Oximeter measures the ratio of oxyhemoglobin to deoxyhemoglobin over a 1 × 1 cm area to obtain a non-invasive measurement of perfusion (StO2. Methods This study evaluates the ability of ViOptix T.Ox Tissue Oximeter to predict mastectomy flap necrosis. StO2 measurements were taken at five points before and at completion of dissection in 10 patients. Data collected included: demographics, tumor size, flap length/thickness, co-morbidities, procedure length, and wound complications. Results One patient experienced mastectomy skin flap necrosis. Five patients underwent immediate reconstruction, including the patient with necrosis. Statistically significant factors contributing to necrosis included reduction in medial flap StO2 (p = 0.0189, reduction in inferior flap StO2 (p = 0.003, and flap length (p = 0.009. Conclusion StO2 reductions may be utilized to identify impaired perfusion in mastectomy skin flaps.

  18. Using Innovative Acoustic Analysis to Predict the Postoperative Outcomes of Unilateral Vocal Fold Paralysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yung-An Tsou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Autologous fat injection laryngoplasty is ineffective for some patients with iatrogenic vocal fold paralysis, and additional laryngeal framework surgery is often required. An acoustically measurable outcome predictor for lipoinjection laryngoplasty would assist phonosurgeons in formulating treatment strategies. Methods. Seventeen thyroid surgery patients with unilateral vocal fold paralysis participated in this study. All subjects underwent lipoinjection laryngoplasty to treat postsurgery vocal hoarseness. After treatment, patients were assigned to success and failure groups on the basis of voice improvement. Linear prediction analysis was used to construct a new voice quality indicator, the number of irregular peaks (NIrrP. It compared with the measures used in the Multi-Dimensional Voice Program (MDVP, such as jitter (frequency perturbation and shimmer (perturbation of amplitude. Results. By comparing the [i] vowel produced by patients before the lipoinjection laryngoplasty (AUC = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.78–0.99, NIrrP was shown to be a more accurate predictor of long-term surgical outcomes than jitter (AUC = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.47–0.91 and shimmer (AUC = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.37–0.85, as identified by the receiver operating characteristic curve. Conclusions. NIrrP measured using the LP model could be a more accurate outcome predictor than the parameters used in the MDVP.

  19. Prediction of transfusion therapy tactics for prophylaxis of early postoperative complications in coronary surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    И. А. Мандель

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The study focuses on the tactics of transfusion therapy during coronary artery bypass surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass in patients with left ventricular ejection fraction higher or lower than 40%. To predict the tactics of intraoperative transfusion therapy, hypoxic tests were preoperatively conducted in the main group of patients. A traditional approach to blood transfusion was applied in the control group of patients. The analysis of clinical and laboratory data, hemodynamics and oxygen balance, as well as follow-up data allowed to prove the possibility of decreasing allogenic blood use by 48.8% (p = 0,02. Based on the hypoxic test data, criteria for lowering the intraoperative trigger hemoglobin level down to 70 g/l, including the patients with a low left ventricular ejection fraction. It was shown that our tactics of trigger hemoglobin level calculation allows for reducing artificial lung ventilation time, frequency of gastrointestinal complications, multiple organ failure, as well as duration of stay at ICU.

  20. Risk factors of distant metastasis in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the uterine cervix treated with postoperative irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yokoyama, Takashi; Beppu, Michiko; Kawakami, Yousuke; Nogawa, Takayoshi; Chiba, Take; Hiura, Masamichi

    2000-01-01

    This paper reports the results of a study of risk factors for recurrence in non-irradiated sites in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the uterine cervix who received postoperative irradiation. It also discusses clinical experience with such patients, particularly those with a poor prognosis, based on a review of the literature. The study was conducted at the National Shikoku Cancer Center in 62 patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the uterine cervix (mean age=50.5, range=30-66) who received 10 MeV postoperative irradiation with a Linac between 1981 and 1990. An analysis was performed in terms of sites and times of recurrence, risk factors for distant metastasis, and groups at high risk for distant metastasis. Based on the results of the study as well as the review of the literature, it was concluded that squamous cell carcinoma of the uterine cervix is sensitive to radiation therapy and that the clinical outcome of local treatment is satisfactory. However, systemic chemotherapy should be considered for patients who are suspected of having minute distant metastasis at the time of surgical operation, i.e., those with moderate to severe vascular space invasion, multiple lymph node metastasis, parametrium infiltration, and/or endometrial infiltration. (K.H.)

  1. Surgery for hepatic hidatidosis. Risk factors and variables associated with postoperative morbidity. Overview of the existing evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manterola, Carlos; Otzen, Tamara; Muñoz, Gloria; Alanis, Martín; Kruuse, Eileen; Figueroa, Gustavo

    2017-12-01

    There are few publications related to postoperative morbidity in hepatic hydatidosis and these have mixed results. The aim of this study was to determine risk and protective factors of postoperative morbidity in patients operated on for hepatic hydatidosis. A comprehensive review was made of the evidence, based on systematic reviews, clinical analyses and observational studies, obtained from the Trip Database, BVS, SciELO, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, WoS, MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, EBSCOhost, IBECS, ePORTUGUESe, LILACS and WHOLIS. 1,087 related articles were identified; 69 fulfilled the selection criteria (2 systematic reviews, 3 clinical trials and 64 observational studies). Age, history of previous surgery for hepatic hydatidosis, location in the hepatic center, existence of biliary communications and evolutionary complications of the cyst were identified as risk factors, and radical surgical techniques as protective factors. Risk and protective factors were identified; however, the studies are few and the quality moderate to low. Copyright © 2017 AEC. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  2. Risk of postoperative hypoxemia in ambulatory orthopedic surgery patients with diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnea: a retrospective observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Yan

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is unclear when it is safe to discharge patients with a diagnosis of Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA after ambulatory surgical procedures due to concern for postoperative respiratory compromise and hypoxemia. Our OSA patients undergoing ambulatory-type orthopedic procedures are monitored overnight in the PACU, thus we reviewed patient records to determine incidence of complications. Methods Two hundred and six charts of patients with preoperative diagnosis of OSA based on ICD-9 codes were reviewed for outcomes including episodes of hypoxemia. Univariate analysis followed by logistic regression and propensity analysis was performed to determine independent risk factors for hypoxemia and association with adverse outcomes. Results The majority of patients had regional anesthesia (95%. Thirty four percent of patients had hypoxemia in the PACU. Initial risk factors for hypoxemia identified by univariate analysis were BMI ≥ 35, increased age, history of COPD, upper extremity procedure, and use of peripheral nerve block. Independent risk factors identified by logistic regression were history of COPD (OR 3.64 with 95% CI 1.03-12.88 and upper extremity procedure (2.53, 1.36-4.68. After adjustment with propensity scores, adverse events were rare, and unplanned hospital admission after PACU stay was not increased with hypoxemia (11% vs 16% Conclusions Episodes of postoperative hypoxemia in OSA patients undergoing ambulatory surgery with regional anesthesia are not associated with increased adverse outcomes or unplanned hospital admission.

  3. Therapeutic effect of radiofrequency ablation on children with supraventricular tachycardia and the risk factors for postoperative recurrence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chunli; Jia, Libo; Wang, Zhenzhou; Niu, Ling; An, Xinjiang

    2018-05-01

    The present study investigated the therapeutic effect of radiofrequency ablation on children with supraventricular tachycardia (SVT), and explored the risk factors for postoperative recurrence. A total of 312 patients with pediatric SVT were selected in the Affiliated Children's Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University from April, 2011 to March, 2017. All the patients were subjected to radiofrequency ablation, and clinical data were retrospectively analyzed. Tilt table test was performed before and after treatment, and heart rate, systolic and diastolic blood pressure before and after treatment were compared. Plasma levels of D-dimer (D-D), platelet α-granule membrane protein (GMP-140) and thrombin-antithrombin III complex (TAT) were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay before treatment, immediately after radiofrequency oblation, and at 1, 3 and 7 days after treatment. Treatment outcomes were compared between the atrioventricular reentrant tachycardia (AVRT) and atrioventricular nodal reentrant tachycardia (AVNRT) groups. Risk factors for postoperative recurrence were analyzed. Supine position heart rate after treatment was not significantly different from that before treatment (P>0.05), while the upright position heart rate was significantly increased after treatment (P0.05). No significant difference in radiofrequency ablation rate, recurrence rate and incidence of complications were found between the AVRT and AVNRT groups (P>0.05). After radiofrequency, the levels of D-D, GMP-140 and TAT ablation showed an upward trend, but decreased at day 7 to reach preoperative levels. Logistic regression analysis revealed that residual slow pathway (OR=6.718, P=0.005) and inaccurate targeting (OR=2.815, P=0.007) were independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence (Pradiofrequency ablation can damage the cardiac vagal nerve, resulting in an increase in the heart rate after ablation during the course of the tilt table test and changed hemagglutination state

  4. Postoperative mortality and morbidity in octogenarians and nonagenarians with hip fracture: an analysis of perioperative risk factors

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    MA Ren-shi

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available 【Abstract】Objective: To evaluate the role of high risk factors in octogenarians and nonagenarians with hip trauma, which may lead to excessive mortality and morbi- dity postoperatively. Methods: Fifty-four octogenarians and nonagenarians patients were enrolled in the study, receiving surgical repair of hip fracture in our hospital from January 2006 to January 2010. High risk factors were recorded preoperatively in detail. Complications and survival state were followed up by telephone for 2 years postoperatively. All the data were analyzed by Chi-square test with SPSS 13.0. Results: Twenty-six males (48.1%, aged from 80 to 94 years with a mean age of 84.2 years, and twenty-eight females (51.9%, aged from 80 to 95 years with a mean age of 83.4 years, were presented in the cohort study. The hip traumas were caused by daily slight injuries (52 cases and car accidents (2 cases, respectively. Twenty-eight patients (51.9% with femoral neck fracture while 26 patients (48.1% with intertrochanteric fracture were diagnosed through an anterior-posterior pelvic radiophotograph. In this series, 39 patients (72.2% suffered from one or more comorbidities preoperatively. The morbidity was 48.1% and the major cause was urinary tract infection, while a significant difference was noted between females and males. The mortality was 20.4% with a predominant cause of acute renal failure. Conclusions: The gender should be considered as a critical high risk factor in octogenarians and nonagenarians with hip trauma postoperatively. Females are more likely to suffer complications postoperatively, which is especially obvious in senile patients over 80 years (P<0.05. Urinary tract infection is the most frequent complication after hip surgery, followed by low limb embolism and malnutrition. The mortality is dramatically greater in patients over 80 years old than those below, and major causes are acute renal failure, multiple organ dysfunction syndrome and mental

  5. Postoperative pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kehlet, H; Dahl, J B

    1993-01-01

    also modify various aspects of the surgical stress response, and nociceptive blockade by regional anesthetic techniques has been demonstrated to improve various parameters of postoperative outcome. It is therefore stressed that effective control of postoperative pain, combined with a high degree......Treatment of postoperative pain has not received sufficient attention by the surgical profession. Recent developments concerned with acute pain physiology and improved techniques for postoperative pain relief should result in more satisfactory treatment of postoperative pain. Such pain relief may...

  6. Upper abdominal body shape is the risk factor for postoperative pancreatic fistula after splenectomy for advanced gastric cancer: A retrospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fujii Shoichi

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Postoperative pancreas fistula (POPF is a major complication after total gastrectomy with splenectomy. We retrospectively studied the effects of upper abdominal shape on the development of POPF after gastrectomy. Methods Fifty patients who underwent total gastrectomy with splenectomy were studied. The maximum vertical distance measured by computed tomography (CT between the anterior abdominal skin and the back skin (U-APD and the maximum horizontal distance of a plane at a right angle to U-APD (U-TD were measured at the umbilicus. The distance between the anterior abdominal skin and the root of the celiac artery (CAD and the distance of a horizontal plane at a right angle to CAD (CATD were measured at the root of the celiac artery. The CA depth ratio (CAD/CATD was calculated. Results POPF occurred in 7 patients (14.0% and was associated with a higher BMI, longer CAD, and higher CA depth ratio. However, CATD, U-APD, and U-TD did not differ significantly between patients with and those without POPF. Logistic-regression analysis revealed that a high BMI (≥25 and a high CA depth ratio (≥0.370 independently predicted the occurrence of POPF (odds ratio = 19.007, p = 0.002; odds ratio = 13.656, p = 0.038, respectively. Conclusion Surgical procedures such as total gastrectomy with splenectomy should be very carefully executed in obese patients or patients with a deep abdominal cavity to decrease the risk of postoperative pancreatic fistula. BMI and body shape can predict the risk of POPF simply by CT.

  7. Risk of Leptomeningeal Disease in Patients Treated With Stereotactic Radiosurgery Targeting the Postoperative Resection Cavity for Brain Metastases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Atalar, Banu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Acibadem University School of Medicine, Istanbul (Turkey); Modlin, Leslie A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford, California (United States); Choi, Clara Y.H.; Adler, John R. [Department of Neurosurgery, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford, California (United States); Gibbs, Iris C. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford, California (United States); Chang, Steven D.; Harsh, Griffith R.; Li, Gordon [Department of Neurosurgery, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford, California (United States); Nagpal, Seema [Department of Neurology, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford, California (United States); Hanlon, Alexandra [Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford, California (United States); Soltys, Scott G., E-mail: sgsoltys@stanford.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford, California (United States)

    2013-11-15

    Purpose: We sought to determine the risk of leptomeningeal disease (LMD) in patients treated with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) targeting the postsurgical resection cavity of a brain metastasis, deferring whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT) in all patients. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively reviewed 175 brain metastasis resection cavities in 165 patients treated from 1998 to 2011 with postoperative SRS. The cumulative incidence rates, with death as a competing risk, of LMD, local failure (LF), and distant brain parenchymal failure (DF) were estimated. Variables associated with LMD were evaluated, including LF, DF, posterior fossa location, resection type (en-bloc vs piecemeal or unknown), and histology (lung, colon, breast, melanoma, gynecologic, other). Results: With a median follow-up of 12 months (range, 1-157 months), median overall survival was 17 months. Twenty-one of 165 patients (13%) developed LMD at a median of 5 months (range, 2-33 months) following SRS. The 1-year cumulative incidence rates, with death as a competing risk, were 10% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6%-15%) for developing LF, 54% (95% CI, 46%-61%) for DF, and 11% (95% CI, 7%-17%) for LMD. On univariate analysis, only breast cancer histology (hazard ratio, 2.96) was associated with an increased risk of LMD. The 1-year cumulative incidence of LMD was 24% (95% CI, 9%-41%) for breast cancer compared to 9% (95% CI, 5%-14%) for non-breast histology (P=.004). Conclusions: In patients treated with SRS targeting the postoperative cavity following resection, those with breast cancer histology were at higher risk of LMD. It is unknown whether the inclusion of whole-brain irradiation or novel strategies such as preresection SRS would improve this risk or if the rate of LMD is inherently higher with breast histology.

  8. Preoperative cerebrospinal fluid cytokine levels and the risk of postoperative delirium in elderly hip fracture patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Aging and neurodegenerative disease predispose to delirium and are both associated with increased activity of the innate immune system resulting in an imbalance between pro- and anti-inflammatory mediators in the brain. We examined whether hip fracture patients who develop postoperative delirium have altered levels of inflammatory mediators in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) prior to surgery. Methods Patients were 75 years and older and admitted for surgical repair of an acute hip fracture. CSF samples were collected preoperatively. In an exploratory study, we measured 42 cytokines and chemokines by multiplex analysis. We compared CSF levels between patients with and without postoperative delirium and examined the association between CSF cytokine levels and delirium severity. Delirium was diagnosed with the Confusion Assessment Method; severity of delirium was measured with the Delirium Rating Scale Revised-98. Mann–Whitney U tests or Student t-tests were used for between-group comparisons and the Spearman correlation coefficient was used for correlation analyses. Results Sixty-one patients were included, of whom 23 patients (37.7%) developed postsurgical delirium. Concentrations of Fms-like tyrosine kinase-3 (P=0.021), Interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (P=0.032) and Interleukin-6 (P=0.005) were significantly lower in patients who developed delirium postoperatively. Conclusions Our findings fit the hypothesis that delirium after surgery results from a dysfunctional neuroinflammatory response: stressing the role of reduced levels of anti-inflammatory mediators in this process. Trial registration The Effect of Taurine on Morbidity and Mortality in the Elderly Hip Fracture Patient. Registration number: NCT00497978. Local ethical protocol number: NL16222.094.07. PMID:24093540

  9. Predicted Factors of Prolonged Postoperative ICU Admission More Than Four Days: Thai Tertiary University Hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thitima Chinachoti

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To identify the risk factors associated with prolonged intensive care unit admission (≥4 days and mortalityinpostoperative surgicalpatients. Methods: A retrospective, case-control study was conductedin527patients admittedtopostoperative intensive care units during a 1-year period. Fifteen factors were included in univariate and only significant factors were includedin multivariate analyses. Results: Twenty one percent of all admissions had prolonged length-of-stay. From multivariate analysis, predictedriskfactorswereemergencysurgery(OR 2.9,p=0.001, CI1.6-5.2; remainedintubation(OR 2.6,p=0.007, CI 1.3-5.4, unplanned ICU admission (OR 2.1, p=0.03, CI 1.1-4.2; SAPS II score >52 (OR 4.8, p64 (OR 6.1, p3 (OR 8.2, p=0.003, CI 2-32.9, ICU readmission (OR 3.9, p=0.007, CI 1.5-10.8, inotrope infusion inICU (OR 3, p=0.006, CI1.4-6.7, renal replacement therapy (OR 3.2, p=0.007, CI 1.3-8.2, SAPSII score52-63(OR 3.6,p=0.018, CI1.2-6.8,SAPSII score>64(OR 3.9,p=0.006, CI1.4-9 andcirrhosis (OR 4.9,p=0.04, CI1.1-21. Conclusion: ASA physicalstatus>3andSAPSIIscore>52 wereindependentpredictivefactorsofbothprolonged intensive careunit admissionand mortality.

  10. Prophylactic Groin Wound Vacuum-assisted Therapy in Vascular Surgery Patients at Enhanced Risk for Postoperative Wound Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesonen, Luke O; Halloran, Brian G; Aziz, Abdulhameed

    2018-01-01

    Vascular groin wounds have higher than expected surgical site infection (SSI) rates and some patients are at enhanced risk. The Wiseman et al. paper suggests an objective scoring system that identifies patients at enhanced risk of postdischarge SSI. We hypothesize that prophylactic groin wound vacuum-assisted closure (VAC) therapy in enhanced risk patients will decrease SSI and readmission and the Wiseman model provides potential evidence that enhanced risk patients can be objectively identified. A single institution, retrospective analysis was conducted from January 2013 to September 2016 utilizing procedure codes to identify patients with wound VACs placed in the operating room. Two distinct groups were identified. The first was a wound complication patient group with 15 limbs (13 patients) with a groin wound VAC placed within 45 days postoperatively for groin wound complications. Eleven of these limbs had the VAC placed at readmission. The second group was a prophylactic patient group that included 8 limbs (7 patients) who received a VAC prophylactically placed in the enhanced risk wounds. These wounds were determined to be enhanced risk based on clinical criteria judged by the operating surgeon such as a large overhanging panniculus and/or one of several ongoing medical issues. We calculated a Wiseman score for all patients, determined total cost of the readmissions, and determined 30-day postsurgical SSI incidence for the prophylactic VAC group. Per the Wiseman scores, 9 limbs with postoperative complications were high risk and 3 limbs were moderate/high risk. Eleven limbs had a VAC placed at readmission with an average readmission cost of $8876.77. For the prophylactic group, 8 limbs were high risk with no observed postdischarge SSI in the first 30 days from surgery. The Wiseman scores showed close correlation between the retrospective high and moderate/high risk groups versus the prophylactic VAC group (31.5 ± 7.3 vs. 32 ± 5.5, P = 0.87). The Wiseman

  11. Apolipoprotein E e4 allele does not increase the risk of early postoperative delirium after major surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abelha, Fernando José; Fernandes, Vera; Botelho, Miguela; Santos, Patricia; Santos, Alice; Machado, J C; Barros, Henrique

    2012-02-01

    BACKGROUND: A relationship between patients with a genetic predisposition to and those who develop postoperative delirium has not been yet determined. The aim of this study was to determine whether there is an association between apolipoprotein E epsilon 4 allele (APOE4) and delirium after major surgery. METHODS: Of 230 intensive care patients admitted to the post anesthesia care unit (PACU) over a period of 3 months, 173 were enrolled in the study. Patients' demographics and intra- and postoperative data were collected. Patients were followed for the development of delirium using the Intensive Care Delirium Screening Checklist, and DNA was obtained at PACU admission to determine apolipoprotein E genotype. RESULTS: Fifteen percent of patients developed delirium after surgery. Twenty-four patients had one copy of APOE4. The presence of APOE4 was not associated with an increased risk of early postoperative delirium (4% vs. 17%; P = 0.088). The presence of APOE4 was not associated with differences in any studied variables. Multivariate analysis identified age [odds ratio (OR) 9.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0-43.0, P = 0.004 for age ≥65 years), congestive heart disease (OR 6.2, 95% CI 2.0-19.3, P = 0.002), and emergency surgery (OR 59.7, 95% CI 6.7-530.5, P < 0.001) as independent predictors for development of delirium. The Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) and The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) were significantly higher in patients with delirium (P < 0.001 and 0.008, respectively). Hospital mortality rates of these patients was higher and they had a longer median PACU stay. CONCLUSIONS: Apolipoprotein e4 carrier status was not associated with an increased risk for early postoperative delirium. Age, congestive heart failure, and emergency surgery were independent risk factors for the development of delirium after major surgery.

  12. Using the Electronic Health Record Data in Real Time and Predictive Analytics to Prevent Hospital-Acquired Postoperative/Surgical Site Infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falen, Thomas; Noblin, Alice M; Russell, O Lucia; Santiago, Nonica

    Of critical concern to hospitals today is the prevention of postoperative (surgical site) infections that often result in increased lengths of stays for patients, increased resource demands and costs, loss of public trust and lawsuits, and needless pain and suffering for patients and their families. While all surgical patients have the potential to develop a postoperative infection, the main challenge is to identify key risk factors (both patient centered and operational) through an electronic early-warning system to reduce the likelihood of a postoperative infection from occurring. Currently, most postoperative infection risk prevention practices encompass limited use of informatics technologies or do not maximize the potential benefits. In addition, from a research perspective, there has been more focus on extrapolating electronically housed data (eg, from progress notes, operative notes, laboratory, pharmacy, radiology) retrospectively to describe poor patient outcomes for benchmarking purposes (revealing poor results and opportunities for improvement) rather than using similar sources of real-time data to prevent poor patient outcomes from occurring. This article proposes that standardized indicators, both patient centered and operational, linked to the patient's electronic health record could allow for implementation of 24/7, "real-time" monitoring/surveillance to implement well-timed preventive interventions scaled to each patient and facility to assist caregivers in reducing the numbers of postoperative infections and improve the overall quality and costs of patient care.

  13. Immediate postoperative outcome of orthognathic surgical planning, and prediction of positional changes in hard and soft tissue, independently of the extent and direction of the surgical corrections required

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Donatsky, Ole; Bjørn-Jørgensen, Jens; Hermund, Niels Ulrich

    2011-01-01

    orthognathic correction using the computerised, cephalometric, orthognathic, surgical planning system (TIOPS). Preoperative cephalograms were analysed and treatment plans and prediction tracings produced by computerised interactive simulation. The planned changes were transferred to models and finally...... with the presently included soft tissue algorithms, the current study shows relatively high mean predictability of the immediately postoperative hard and soft tissue outcome, independent of the extent and direction of required orthognathic correction. Because of the relatively high individual variability, caution...

  14. Postoperative complications do not influence the pattern of early lung function recovery after lung resection for lung cancer in patients at risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercegovac, Maja; Subotic, Dragan; Zugic, Vladimir; Jakovic, Radoslav; Moskovljevic, Dejan; Bascarevic, Slavisa; Mujovic, Natasa

    2014-05-19

    The pattern and factors influencing the lung function recovery in the first postoperative days are still not fully elucidated, especially in patients at increased risk. Prospective study on 60 patients at increased risk, who underwent a lung resection for primary lung cancer. complete resection and one or more known risk factors in form of COPD, cardiovascular disorders, advanced age or other comorbidities. Previous myocardial infarction, myocardial revascularization or stenting, cardiac rhythm disorders, arterial hypertension and myocardiopathy determined the increased cardiac risk. The severity of COPD was graded according to GOLD criteria. The trend of the postoperative lung function recovery was assessed by performing spirometry with a portable spirometer. Cardiac comorbidity existed in 55%, mild and moderate COPD in 20% and 35% of patients respectively. Measured values of FVC% and FEV1% on postoperative days one, three and seven, showed continuous improvement, with significant difference between the days of measurement, especially between days three and seven. There was no difference in the trend of the lung function recovery between patients with and without postoperative complications. Whilst pO2 was decreasing during the first three days in a roughly parallel fashion in patients with respiratory, surgical complications and in patients without complications, a slight hypercapnia registered on the first postoperative day was gradually abolished in all groups except in patients with cardiac complications. Extent of the lung resection and postoperative complications do not significantly influence the trend of the lung function recovery after lung resection for lung cancer.

  15. Risk factors for anastomotic leak and postoperative morbidity and mortality after elective right colectomy for cancer: results from a prospective, multicentric study of 1102 patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frasson, Matteo; Granero-Castro, Pablo; Ramos Rodríguez, José Luis; Flor-Lorente, Blas; Braithwaite, Mariela; Martí Martínez, Eva; Álvarez Pérez, Jose Antonio; Codina Cazador, Antonio; Espí, Alejandro; Garcia-Granero, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Studies focused on postoperative outcome after oncologic right colectomy are lacking. The main objective was to determine pre-/intraoperative risk factors for anastomotic leak after elective right colon resection for cancer. Secondary objectives were to determine risk factors for postoperative morbidity and mortality. Fifty-two hospitals participated in this prospective, observational study (September 2011-September 2012), including 1102 patients that underwent elective right colectomy. Forty-two pre-/intraoperative variables, related to patient, tumor, surgical procedure, and hospital, were analyzed as potential independent risk factors for anastomotic leak and postoperative morbidity and mortality. Anastomotic leak was diagnosed in 93 patients (8.4 %), and 72 (6.5 %) of them needed radiological or surgical intervention. Morbidity, mortality, and wound infection rates were 29.0, 2.6, and 13.4 %, respectively. Preoperative serum protein concentration was the only independent risk factor for anastomotic leak (p leaks, stapled technique (p = 0.03, OR 2.1) and preoperative serum protein concentration (p = 0.004, OR 0.6 g/dL) were identified as the only two independent risk factors. Age and preoperative serum albumin concentration resulted to be risk factors for postoperative mortality. Male gender, pulmonary or hepatic disease, and open surgical approach were identified as risk factors for postoperative morbidity, while male gender, obesity, intraoperative complication, and end-to-end anastomosis were risk factors for wound infection. Preoperative nutritional status and the stapled anastomotic technique were the only independent risk factors for clinically relevant anastomotic leak after elective right colectomy for cancer. Age and preoperative nutritional status determined the mortality risk, while laparoscopic approach reduced postoperative morbidity.

  16. Colonic resection with early discharge after combined subarachnoid-epidural analgesia, preoperative glucocorticoids, and early postoperative mobilization and feeding in a pulmonary high-risk patient

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møiniche, S; Dahl, J B; Rosenberg, J

    1994-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES. A pulmonary high-risk patient undergoing right hemicolectomy for cancer was treated with a combination of intense afferent neural block with subarachnoid-epidural local anesthetics followed by continuous epidural analgesia, preoperative high-dose glucocorticoids......) with unchanged pulmonary function. Nocturnal episodic oxygen desaturation, hyperthermia, and postoperative fatigue were prevented. Defecation occurred on the first postoperative day and oral caloric intake was normal after 24 hours with no postoperative weight loss. Self care was normalized on the third...... postoperative day and the patient discharged from the hospital 80 hours after surgery. CONCLUSIONS. The technique of combined neural and humoral mediator block should be evaluated in other high-risk patients undergoing major surgical procedures, where minimal invasive techniques are not possible....

  17. Atrial Na,K-ATPase increase and potassium dysregulation accentuate the risk of postoperative atrial fibrillation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tran, Cao Thach; Schmidt, Thomas Andersen; Christensen, John Brochorst

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Postoperative atrial fibrillation is a common complication to cardiac surgery. Na,K-ATPase is of major importance for the resting membrane potential and action potential. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the importance of Na,K-ATPase concentrations in human atrial...... biopsies and plasma potassium concentrations for the development of atrial fibrillation. METHODS: Atrial myocardial biopsies were obtained from 67 patients undergoing open chest cardiac surgery. Na,K-ATPase was quantified using vanadate-facilitated 3H-ouabain binding. Plasma potassium concentration....../g wet weight (n = 33), p = 0.03]. Also with multivariable analysis, 3H-ouabain-binding site concentration was significantly associated with the development of atrial fibrillation. High increase in plasma potassium concentration during the perioperative period and surgery was associated...

  18. Predictive value of early postoperative IOP and bleb morphology in Mitomycin-C augmented trabeculectomy [version 2; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamed Esfandiari

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: To determine the predictive value of postoperative bleb morphological features and intraocular pressure (IOP on the success rate of trabeculectomy. Methods: In this prospective interventional case series, we analyzed for one year 80 consecutive primary open angle glaucoma patients who underwent mitomycin-augmented trabeculectomy. Bleb morphology was scored using the Indiana bleb appearance grading scale (IBAGS. Success was defined as IOP ≤15 mmHg at 12 months. We applied a multivariable regression analysis and determined the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC. Results: The mean age of participants was 62±12.3 years in the success and 63.2±16.3 years in the failure group (P= 0.430 with equal gender distribution (P=0.911. IOPs on day 1, 7 and 30 were similar in both (P= 0.193, 0.639, and 0.238, respectively. The AUC of IOP at day 1, day 7 and 30 for predicting a successful outcome was 0.355, 0.452, and 0.80, respectively. The AUC for bleb morphology parameters of bleb height, extension, and vascularization, on day 14 were 0.368, 0.408, and 0.549, respectively. Values for day 30 were 0.428, 0.563, and 0.654. IOP change from day 1 to day 30 was a good predictor of failure (AUC=0.838, 95% CI: 0.704 to 0.971 with a change of more than 3 mmHg predicting failure with a sensitivity of 82.5% (95% CI: 68 to 91% and a specificity of 87.5% (95% CI: 53 to 98%. Conclusions: IOP on day 30 had a fair to good accuracy while bleb features failed to predict success except bleb vascularity that had a poor to fair accuracy.  An IOP increase more than 3 mmHg during the first 30 days was a good predictor of failure.

  19. Comparison of Risk Scores for Prediction of Complications following Aortic Valve Replacement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tom Kai Ming; Choi, David Hyun-Min; Haydock, David; Gamble, Greg; Stewart, Ralph; Ruygrok, Peter

    2015-06-01

    Risk models play an important role in stratification of patients for cardiac surgery, but their prognostic utilities for post-operative complications are rarely studied. We compared the EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II, Society of Thoracic Surgeon's (STS) Score and an Australasian model (Aus-AVR Score) for predicting morbidities after aortic valve replacement (AVR), and also evaluated seven STS complications models in this context. We retrospectively calculated risk scores for 620 consecutive patients undergoing isolated AVR at Auckland City Hospital during 2005-2012, assessing their discrimination and calibration for post-operative complications. Amongst mortality scores, the EuroSCORE was the best at discriminating stroke (c-statistic 0.845); the EuroSCORE II at deep sternal wound infection (c=0.748); and the STS Score at composite morbidity or mortality (c=0.666), renal failure (c=0.634), ventilation>24 hours (c=0.732), return to theatre (c=0.577) and prolonged hospital stay >14 days post-operatively (c=0.707). The individual STS complications models had a marginally higher c-statistic (c=0.634-0.846) for all complications except mediastinitis, and had good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P-value 0.123-0.915) for all complications. The STS Score was best overall at discriminating post-operative complications and their composite for AVR. All STS complications models except for deep sternal wound infection had good discrimination and calibration for post-operative complications. Copyright © 2014 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Logistic regression analysis of risk factors for postoperative recurrence of spinal tumors and analysis of prognostic factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shanyong; Yang, Lili; Peng, Chuangang; Wu, Minfei

    2018-02-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate the risk factors for postoperative recurrence of spinal tumors by logistic regression analysis and analysis of prognostic factors. In total, 77 male and 48 female patients with spinal tumor were selected in our hospital from January, 2010 to December, 2015 and divided into the benign (n=76) and malignant groups (n=49). All the patients underwent microsurgical resection of spinal tumors and were reviewed regularly 3 months after operation. The McCormick grading system was used to evaluate the postoperative spinal cord function. Data were subjected to statistical analysis. Of the 125 cases, 63 cases showed improvement after operation, 50 cases were stable, and deterioration was found in 12 cases. The improvement rate of patients with cervical spine tumor, which reached 56.3%, was the highest. Fifty-two cases of sensory disturbance, 34 cases of pain, 30 cases of inability to exercise, 26 cases of ataxia, and 12 cases of sphincter disorders were found after operation. Seventy-two cases (57.6%) underwent total resection, 18 cases (14.4%) received subtotal resection, 23 cases (18.4%) received partial resection, and 12 cases (9.6%) were only treated with biopsy/decompression. Postoperative recurrence was found in 57 cases (45.6%). The mean recurrence time of patients in the malignant group was 27.49±6.09 months, and the mean recurrence time of patients in the benign group was 40.62±4.34. The results were significantly different (Pregression analysis of total resection-related factors showed that total resection should be the preferred treatment for patients with benign tumors, thoracic and lumbosacral tumors, and lower McCormick grade, as well as patients without syringomyelia and intramedullary tumors. Logistic regression analysis of recurrence-related factors revealed that the recurrence rate was relatively higher in patients with malignant, cervical, thoracic and lumbosacral, intramedullary tumors, and higher Mc

  1. Lumbar Drains Decrease the Risk of Postoperative Cerebrospinal Fluid Leak Following Endonasal Endoscopic Surgery for Suprasellar Meningiomas in Patients With High Body Mass Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Salomon; Jones, Samuel H; Dhandapani, Sivashanmugam; Negm, Hazem M; Anand, Vijay K; Schwartz, Theodore H

    2018-01-01

    Postoperative cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leak is a persistent, albeit much less prominent, complication following endonasal endoscopic surgery. The pathology with highest risk is suprasellar meningiomas. A postoperative lumbar drain (LD) is used to decrease the risk of CSF leak but is not universally accepted. To compare the rates of postoperative CSF leak between patients with and without LD who underwent endonasal endoscopic surgical resection of suprasellar meningiomas. A consecutive series of newly diagnosed suprasellar meningiomas was drawn from a prospectively acquired database of endonasal endoscopic surgeries at our institution. An intraoperative, preresection LD was placed and left open at 5 cc/h for ∼48 h. In a subset of patients, the LD could not be placed. Rates of postoperative CSF leak were compared between patients with and without an LD. Twenty-five patients underwent endonasal endoscopic surgical resection of suprasellar meningiomas. An LD could not be placed in 2 patients. There were 2 postoperative CSF leaks (8%), both of which occurred in the patients who did not have an LD (P = .0033). The average body mass index (BMI) of the patients in whom the LD could not be placed was 39.1 kg/m2, compared with 27.6 kg/m2 for those in whom the LD could be placed (P = .009). In the subgroup of obese patients (BMI > 30 kg/m2), LD placement was protective against postoperative CSF leak (P = .022). The inability to place an LD in patients with obesity is a risk factor for postoperative CSF leak. An LD may be useful to prevent postoperative CSF leak, particularly in patients with elevated BMI. Copyright © 2017 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

  2. Perioperative Respiratory Adverse Events in Pediatric Ambulatory Anesthesia: Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramanyam, Rajeev; Yeramaneni, Samrat; Hossain, Mohamed Monir; Anneken, Amy M; Varughese, Anna M

    2016-05-01

    Perioperative respiratory adverse events (PRAEs) are the most common cause of serious adverse events in children receiving anesthesia. Our primary aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk prediction tool for the occurrence of PRAE from the onset of anesthesia induction until discharge from the postanesthesia care unit in children younger than 18 years undergoing elective ambulatory anesthesia for surgery and radiology. The incidence of PRAE was studied. We analyzed data from 19,059 patients from our department's quality improvement database. The predictor variables were age, sex, ASA physical status, morbid obesity, preexisting pulmonary disorder, preexisting neurologic disorder, and location of ambulatory anesthesia (surgery or radiology). Composite PRAE was defined as the presence of any 1 of the following events: intraoperative bronchospasm, intraoperative laryngospasm, postoperative apnea, postoperative laryngospasm, postoperative bronchospasm, or postoperative prolonged oxygen requirement. Development and validation of the risk prediction tool for PRAE were performed using a split sampling technique to split the database into 2 independent cohorts based on the year when the patient received ambulatory anesthesia for surgery and radiology using logistic regression. A risk score was developed based on the regression coefficients from the validation tool. The performance of the risk prediction tool was assessed by using tests of discrimination and calibration. The overall incidence of composite PRAE was 2.8%. The derivation cohort included 8904 patients, and the validation cohort included 10,155 patients. The risk of PRAE was 3.9% in the development cohort and 1.8% in the validation cohort. Age ≤ 3 years (versus >3 years), ASA physical status II or III (versus ASA physical status I), morbid obesity, preexisting pulmonary disorder, and surgery (versus radiology) significantly predicted the occurrence of PRAE in a multivariable logistic regression

  3. [Prognostic value of lacrimal duct diagnostics after tube removal : Retrospective analysis of risk of relapse during the first postoperative year after transcanalicular lacrimal duct surgery with silicone tubing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böhm, M; Heichel, J; Bredehorn-Mayr, T; Lautenschläger, C; Struck, H-G

    2017-05-01

    Transcanalicular lacrimal duct surgery has become more important over the past two decades. The aim of the study was to prove the prognostic value of postoperative lacrimal syringing and the testing of spontaneous drainage of lacrimal fluid immediately after tube removal. A total of 110 cases with postoperative lacrimal syringing and 183 cases with verification of the postoperative lacrimal fluid drainage performed between January 2001 and August 2008 were retrospectively evaluated. The indication for postoperative diagnostics was set by the investigator. The prognostic value of these two procedures was determined by using prognostic parameters (positive predictive value, PPV; negative predictive value, NPV) and analyzing recurrence nonexistence via Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier estimator. The observation period was limited to 12 months. Predominantly, recurrence was defined on the patient's satisfaction and absence of symptoms, which was determined with the help of a questionnaire. Postoperative verification of the lacrimal syringing is a suitable instrument to estimate surgical success within the first year after lacrimal surgery with a PPV of 92.31%. Testing of the spontaneous drainage of lacrimal fluid after tube removal reached a PPV of 63.33%. The proven prognostic value shows that syringing of the lacrimal duct and verification of spontaneous drainage should be integrated into postoperative care in a standardized manner. Hereby, early information for the patient about the expected result of the surgical procedure is enabled.

  4. Risk factors and outcomes of postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreatico-duodenectomy: an audit of 532 consecutive cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Shun-Jun; Shen, Shun-Li; Li, Shao-Qiang; Hu, Wen-Jie; Hua, Yun-Peng; Kuang, Ming; Liang, Li-Jian; Peng, Bao-Gang

    2015-03-26

    Pancreatic fistula (PF) remains the most challenging complication after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). The purpose of this study was to identify the risk factors of PF and delineate its impact on patient outcomes. We retrospectively reviewed clinical data of 532 patients who underwent PD and divided them into PF group and no PF group. Risk factors and outcomes of PF following PD were examined. PF was found in 65 (12.2%) cases, of whom 11 were classified into ISGPF grade A, 42 grade B, and 12 grade C. Clinically serious postoperative complications in the PF versus no PF group were mortality, abdominal bleeding, bile leak, intra-abdominal abscess and pneumonia. Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that blood loss ≥ 500 ml, pancreatic duct diameter ≤ 3 mm and pancreaticojejunostomy type were independent risk factors of PF after PD. Blood loss ≥ 500 ml, pancreatic duct diameter ≤ 3 mm and pancreatico-jejunostomy type were independent risk factors of PF after PD. PF was related with higher mortality rate, longer hospital stay, and other complications.

  5. Mitral valve repair and bioprosthetic replacement without postoperative anticoagulation does not increase the risk of stroke or mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwann, Thomas A; Engoren, Milo; Bonnell, Mark; Clancy, Christopher; Khouri, Samer; Kabour, Ameer; Jamil, Tahir; Habib, Robert H

    2013-07-01

    The study aimed to determine if mitral valve repair (MVRR) or bioprosthetic mitral valve replacement (BMVR) without postoperative anticoagulation is associated with a similar risk of thromboembolism and death as anticoagulation. We retrospectively reviewed our 2004-09 experience in 249 MVRR and bioprosthetic replacement patients (53% female; 63 year mean age). Concurrent procedures principally included antiarrhythmic surgery, aortic valve replacement, tricuspid valve repair and coronary bypass grafting. Warfarin therapy was instituted at the discretion of the surgeon. Thirty-day, a period known to have the highest risk of valve-related thromboembolism, outcomes were compared relying on the incidence of stroke and death as surrogates of thromboembolic complications. Intermediate-term survival was compared between the groups using Cox proportional hazard models. The mean follow-up was 2.9 years. Given the non-randomized warfarin use, a propensity score using patient comorbidities and concurrent procedures was created and added to the Cox models. One hundred and ninety-two (77%) patients were discharged on warfarin and 57 (23%) were discharged without warfarin. Thirty-day mortality in patients discharged from the index hospitalization was 1.2% and was similar for the two groups (P = 0.99). Four ischaemic perioperative strokes were detected; 3 in the warfarin group and 1 in the no warfarin group (P = 0.99). Overall survival was 84%, with 84% survival in the warfarin group and 86% in the no warfarin group (P = 0.79). Bleeding complications were comparable between the two groups (P = 0.72). In a multivariate analysis, warfarin was not related to mortality. Despite current guidelines recommending postoperative anticoagulation following MVRR or bioprosthetic replacement, the avoidance of warfarin does not increase perioperative complications and has no impact on intermediate survival. Accordingly, a prospective randomized study to adjudicate the role of extended warfarin

  6. What are the risk factors for post-operative infection after hip hemiarthroplasty? Systematic review of literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noailles, Thibaut; Brulefert, Kévin; Chalopin, Antoine; Longis, Pierre Marie; Gouin, François

    2016-09-01

    Femoral neck fractures are frequent in the elderly population and lead to high morbidity and mortality. Hemiarthroplasty is an established surgical procedure for displaced intracapsular femoral neck fractures. Post-operative infection is frequent and is potentially devastating for the patient and the healthcare services. The goal of this study was to identify the risk factors of infection after hemiarthroplasty and help adapt our surgical practice. A systematic review of the literature was performed in July 2015 by two authors using the MedLine, PubMed and Cochrane databases. We used the MeSH keywords "hip hemiarthroplasty" AND "infection" to identify risk factors and methods of prevention for surgical site infection after hemiarthroplasty. Following the search, two authors independently performed the first stage based on titles and abstracts. Thirty-seven articles were selected. Review and analysis of the references was performed to find other articles of interest. Thirteen articles were selected to analyse. According to literature, the surgical site infection (SSI) rate after hip hemiarthroplasty (HHA) is between 1.7 and 7.3 %. Pre-operative comorbidities (obesity, liver disease, advanced age), operative conditions (junior surgeon, uncemented stems, time of surgery) and post-operative management (length of hospitalisation, haematoma, prolonged wound drainage and two urinary catheterisations) were identified as risk factors of surgical site infection. Authors describe conditions to decrease the incidence of these complications and underline the importance of "a specialised hip team" that provides fast care and helps decrease the duration of hospitalisation. Careful patient management for hemiarthroplasty is vital and may decrease the incidence of surgical site infection, which is associated with high morbidity and high procedure cost. Our review suggests that there are specific correctable risk factors for SSIs after HHA. Being able to identify these risk factors

  7. Development of an attrition risk prediction tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, John; Norrie, Peter

    To review lecturers' and students' perceptions of the factors that may lead to attrition from pre-registration nursing and midwifery programmes and to identify ways to reduce the impact of such factors on the student's experience. Comparable attrition rates for nursing and midwifery students across various universities are difficult to monitor accurately; however, estimates that there is approximately a 25% national attrition rate are not uncommon. The financial and human implications of this are significant and worthy of investigation. A study was carried out in one medium-sized UK school of nursing and midwifery, aimed at identifying perceived factors associated with attrition and retention. Thirty-five lecturers were interviewed individually; 605 students completed a questionnaire, and of these, 10 were individually interviewed. Attrition data kept by the student service department were reviewed. Data were collected over an 18-month period in 2007-2008. Regression analysis of the student data identified eight significant predictors. Four of these were 'positive' factors in that they aided student retention and four were 'negative' in that they were associated with students' thoughts of resigning. Student attrition and retention is multifactorial, and, as such, needs to be managed holistically. One aspect of this management could be an attrition risk prediction tool.

  8. Predicting new-onset of postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing cardiac surgery using semi-automatic reading of perioperative electrocardiograms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gu, Jiwei; Graff, Claus; Melgaard, Jacob

    2015-01-01

    P10 Predicting new-onset of postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients undergoingcardiac surgery using semi-automatic reading of perioperative electrocardiograms. Jiwei Gu, Claus Graff, Jacob Melgaard, Søren Lundbye-Christensen, Erik Berg Schmidt, Christian Torp-Pedersen, Kristinn Thorsteinsson......, Jan Jesper Andreasen. Aalborg, DenmarkBackground: Postoperative new onset atrial fibrillation (POAF) is the most common arrhythmia after cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate if semi-automatic readings of perioperative electrocardiograms (ECGs) is of any value in predicting POAF after...... ECG monitoring. A semi-automatic machine capable of reading differentparameters of digitalized ECG’s was used to read both lead specific (P/QRS/T amplitudes/intervals) and global measurements (P-duration/QRS-duration/PR-interval/QT/Heart Rate/hypertrophy).Results: We divided the patients into two...

  9. Management of Postoperative Respiratory Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulligan, Michael S; Berfield, Kathleen S; Abbaszadeh, Ryan V

    2015-11-01

    Despite best efforts, postoperative complications such as postoperative respiratory failure may occur and prompt recognition of the process and management is required. Postoperative respiratory failure, such as postoperative pneumonia, postpneumonectomy pulmonary edema, acute respiratory distress-like syndromes, and pulmonary embolism, are associated with high morbidity and mortality. The causes of these complications are multifactorial and depend on preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative factors, some of which are modifiable. The article identifies some of the risk factors, causes, and treatment strategies for successful management of the patient with postoperative respiratory failure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Increased risk of intraoperative and early postoperative periprosthetic femoral fracture with uncemented stems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindberg-Larsen, Martin; Jørgensen, Christoffer C.; Solgaard, Søren

    2017-01-01

    Background and purpose - The use of uncemented fixation in total hip arthroplasty (THA) is increasing. Registry studies have indicated an increased risk of revision of uncemented implants due to early periprosthetic femoral fracture. In this paper, we describe the incidence and predisposing facto...

  11. Acute treatment-related diarrhea during postoperative adjuvant therapy for high-risk rectal carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, Robert C.; Martenson, James A.; Sargent, Daniel J.; Kahn, Michael J.; Krook, James E.

    1998-01-01

    Purpose: The combination of pelvic radiotherapy and 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy is associated with an increase in acute gastrointestinal toxicity during rectal adjuvant therapy, most notably an increased incidence of diarrhea. Previous randomized, prospective studies have limited their analysis to presenting rates of severe and life-threatening diarrhea (Grade 3 or greater), and few data are available detailing the extent of mild to moderate diarrhea. To provide baseline data for future studies, we conducted a detailed analysis of diarrhea from a prior clinical trial of adjuvant therapy for rectal cancer. Methods and Materials: In a multiinstitutional clinical trial, 204 eligible patients with rectal carcinoma that either was deeply invasive (T3-T4) or involved regional lymph nodes were randomized to receive either postoperative pelvic radiotherapy alone (45 to 50.4 Gy) or pelvic radiotherapy and bolus 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy. Toxicity was assessed prospectively. Results: For the 99 eligible patients who received pelvic radiotherapy alone, rates of Grades 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 diarrhea during treatment were 59, 20, 17, 4, and 0%, respectively. For the 96 eligible patients who received radiotherapy and 5-fluorouracil, the overall rates of grades 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 diarrhea were 21, 34, 23, 20, and 2%, respectively. The increased rates of diarrhea during adjuvant rectal therapy were manifested across all toxicity levels for patients receiving chemotherapy and pelvic radiotherapy. Of primary clinical importance is the substantial increase in severe or life-threatening diarrhea (Grade 3 or more) (22 vs. 4%, p = 0.001) Additionally, increased rates of any diarrhea and also severe or life-threatening diarrhea were observed in patients who had a low anterior resection compared with those who had an abdominoperineal resection (p < 0.001 and p = 0.006, respectively). Conclusion: These results will be of value as a baseline for investigators who want to use

  12. The role of postoperative Tc-99m pertechnetate scintigraphy in estimation of remnant mass and prediction of successful ablation in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozdemir, Didem; Cuhaci, Fatma N; Ozdemir, Elif; Aydin, Cevdet; Ersoy, Reyhan; Turkolmez, Seyda; Cakir, Bekir

    2016-06-01

    Surgery and radioactive iodine (RAI) ablation constitute the mainstay of the treatment of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC). In this study, we aimed to evaluate the diagnostic value of postoperative early Tc-99m pertechnetate scanning to detect remnant thyroid tissue and predict ablation success. DTC patients evaluated with postoperative Tc-99m pertechnetate scintigraphy and treated with RAI between January 2007 and December 2014 were recruited. The results of Tc-99m pertechnetate scanning were compared with therapeutic I-131 whole-body scanning (TxWBS) and diagnostic I-131 whole-body scanning (DxWBS) performed 6-9 months after RAI. There were 154 (21.5%) male and 563 (78.5%) female patients, with a mean age of 49.11±12.35 years. Postoperative Tc-99m pertechnetate scanning was positive in 499 patients (69.6%) and negative in 218 (30.4%) patients. There were 673 (93.9%) patients with a positive TxWBS scan and 44 (6.1%) patients with negative TxWBS scan. Considering TxWBS as the standard test, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of Tc-99m pertechnetate scanning were 72.2, 70.5, 97.4, and 14.2%, respectively. DxWBS was positive in 57 (9.0%) and negative in 564 (91%) patients. Ablation dose was higher and preablation thyroglobulin was lower in patients with negative DxWBS (P=0.001 and 0.04, respectively). Overall, 171 (92.9%) of 184 patients with negative Tc-99m pertechnetate had negative DxWBS. Postoperative Tc-99m pertechnetate scintigraphy has a high positive predictive value to detect remnant tissue in patients with DTC. Although negative Tc-99m pertechnetate scanning does not indicate removal of all thyroid tissue, it is related to successful ablation in more than 90% of patients.

  13. Predictive analytics for supply chain collaboration, risk management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kirstam

    management, and (2) supply chain risk management predicted financial .... overhead costs, delivery of ever-increasing customer value, flexibility with superior ... risk exposure, relationship longevity, trust and communication are considered as.

  14. Elderly fall risk prediction using static posturography

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years) stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed while Wii Balance Board data were collected. Range in anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) center of pressure (CoP) motion; AP and ML CoP root mean square distance from mean (RMS); and AP, ML, and vector sum magnitude (VSM) CoP velocity were calculated. Romberg Quotients (RQ) were calculated for all parameters. Participants reported six-month fall history and six-month post-assessment fall occurrence. Groups were retrospective fallers (24), prospective all fallers (42), prospective fallers (22 single, 6 multiple), and prospective non-fallers (47). Non-faller RQ AP range and RQ AP RMS differed from prospective all fallers, fallers, and single fallers. Non-faller eyes closed AP velocity, eyes closed VSM velocity, RQ AP velocity, and RQ VSM velocity differed from multi-fallers. RQ calculations were particularly relevant for elderly fall risk assessments. Cut-off scores from Clinical Cut-off Score, ROC curves, and discriminant functions were clinically viable for multi-faller classification and provided better accuracy than single-faller classification. RQ AP range with cut-off score 1.64 could be used to screen for older people who may fall once. Prospective multi-faller classification with a discriminant function (-1.481 + 0.146 x Eyes Closed AP Velocity—0.114 x Eyes Closed Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity—2.027 x RQ AP Velocity + 2.877 x RQ Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity) and cut-off score 0.541 achieved an accuracy of 84.9% and is viable as a screening tool for older

  15. Elderly fall risk prediction using static posturography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howcroft, Jennifer; Lemaire, Edward D; Kofman, Jonathan; McIlroy, William E

    2017-01-01

    Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years) stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed while Wii Balance Board data were collected. Range in anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) center of pressure (CoP) motion; AP and ML CoP root mean square distance from mean (RMS); and AP, ML, and vector sum magnitude (VSM) CoP velocity were calculated. Romberg Quotients (RQ) were calculated for all parameters. Participants reported six-month fall history and six-month post-assessment fall occurrence. Groups were retrospective fallers (24), prospective all fallers (42), prospective fallers (22 single, 6 multiple), and prospective non-fallers (47). Non-faller RQ AP range and RQ AP RMS differed from prospective all fallers, fallers, and single fallers. Non-faller eyes closed AP velocity, eyes closed VSM velocity, RQ AP velocity, and RQ VSM velocity differed from multi-fallers. RQ calculations were particularly relevant for elderly fall risk assessments. Cut-off scores from Clinical Cut-off Score, ROC curves, and discriminant functions were clinically viable for multi-faller classification and provided better accuracy than single-faller classification. RQ AP range with cut-off score 1.64 could be used to screen for older people who may fall once. Prospective multi-faller classification with a discriminant function (-1.481 + 0.146 x Eyes Closed AP Velocity-0.114 x Eyes Closed Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity-2.027 x RQ AP Velocity + 2.877 x RQ Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity) and cut-off score 0.541 achieved an accuracy of 84.9% and is viable as a screening tool for older

  16. Elderly fall risk prediction using static posturography.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Howcroft

    Full Text Available Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed while Wii Balance Board data were collected. Range in anterior-posterior (AP and medial-lateral (ML center of pressure (CoP motion; AP and ML CoP root mean square distance from mean (RMS; and AP, ML, and vector sum magnitude (VSM CoP velocity were calculated. Romberg Quotients (RQ were calculated for all parameters. Participants reported six-month fall history and six-month post-assessment fall occurrence. Groups were retrospective fallers (24, prospective all fallers (42, prospective fallers (22 single, 6 multiple, and prospective non-fallers (47. Non-faller RQ AP range and RQ AP RMS differed from prospective all fallers, fallers, and single fallers. Non-faller eyes closed AP velocity, eyes closed VSM velocity, RQ AP velocity, and RQ VSM velocity differed from multi-fallers. RQ calculations were particularly relevant for elderly fall risk assessments. Cut-off scores from Clinical Cut-off Score, ROC curves, and discriminant functions were clinically viable for multi-faller classification and provided better accuracy than single-faller classification. RQ AP range with cut-off score 1.64 could be used to screen for older people who may fall once. Prospective multi-faller classification with a discriminant function (-1.481 + 0.146 x Eyes Closed AP Velocity-0.114 x Eyes Closed Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity-2.027 x RQ AP Velocity + 2.877 x RQ Vector Sum Magnitude Velocity and cut-off score 0.541 achieved an accuracy of 84.9% and is viable as a screening tool for

  17. Predicting erectile dysfunction following surgical correction of Peyronie's disease without inflatable penile prosthesis placement: vascular assessment and preoperative risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Frederick L; Abern, Michael R; Levine, Laurence A

    2012-01-01

    Surgical therapy remains the gold standard treatment for Peyronie's Disease (PD). Surgical options include plication, grafting, and placement of inflatable penile prosthesis (IPP). Postoperative erectile dysfunction (ED) is a potential complication for PD surgery without IPP. We present our large series follow-up to evaluate preoperative risk factors for postoperative ED. The aim of this study is to evaluate preoperative risk factors for the development of ED following surgical correction of PD taking into account the degree of curvature, graft size, surgical approach, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, smoking history, preoperative use of phosphodiesterase 5 inhibitors (PDE5), and preoperative duplex ultrasound findings including peak systolic and end diastolic velocities and resistive index. We identified 218 men undergoing either tunica albuginea plication (TAP) or partial plaque excision with pericardial grafting for PD following a previously published algorithm between November 1992 and April 2007. Preoperative and postoperative erectile function, curvature characteristics, presence of vascular risk factors, and duplex ultrasound findings were available on 109 patients. Our primary outcome measure is the development of ED after surgery for PD. Ten percent of TAP and 21% of plaque excision with grafting patients developed postoperative ED. Neither curve direction (P = 0.76), graft area (P = 0.78), surgical approach (P = 0.12), chronic hypertension (P = 0.51), hyperlipidemia (P = 0.87), diabetes (P = 0.69), nor smoking history (P = 0.99) were significant predictors of postoperative ED. No combination of risk factors was found to be predictive of postoperative ED. Preoperative use of PDE5 was not a significant predictor of postoperative ED (P = 0.33). Neither peak systolic, end diastolic, nor resistive index were significant predictors of ED (P = 0.28, 0.28, and 0.25, respectively). This long-term follow-up of a large published series suggests that neither

  18. Association between elevated pre-operative glycosylated hemoglobin and post-operative infections after non-emergent surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph M. Blankush

    2016-09-01

    Conclusions: The risk factors of post-operative infection are multiple and likely synergistic. While pre-operative HbA1c level is not independently associated with risk of post-operative infection, there are scenarios and patient subgroups where pre-operative HbA1c is useful in predicting an increased risk of infectious complications in the post-operative period.

  19. Does Intraoperative Systematic Bacterial Sampling During Complete Cytoreductive Surgery (CRS) with Hyperthermic Intraoperative Peritoneal Chemotherapy (HIPEC) Influence Postoperative Treatment? A New Predictive Factor for Postoperative Abdominal Infectious Complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dazza, Marie; Schwarz, Lilian; Coget, Julien; Frebourg, Noelle; Wood, Gregory; Huet, Emmanuel; Bridoux, Valérie; Veber, Benoit; Tuech, Jean-Jacques

    2016-12-01

    Cytoreductive surgery (CRS) with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) is an emerging curative treatment option for patients with peritoneal carcinomatosis. It has a long-term survival benefit but is associated with high rates of morbidity, ranging from 12 % to 65 %, mainly due to infectious complications. We sought to evaluate the clinical relevance of routine intraoperative bacteriological sampling following CRS/HIPEC. Between November 2010 and December 2014, every patients receiving CRS/HIPEC were included. Three samples were routinely collected from standardized locations for intraperitoneal rinsing liquid bacteriological analysis (RLBA) after completion of HIPEC. The clinical and surgical features, bacteriological results, and short-term outcomes were retrospectively reviewed. The overall mortality and morbidity rates were 5 and 45 %, respectively. Among the 75 included patients, 40 % (n = 30) had at least one positive bacterial culture. Risk factors for a positive culture were colorectal resection (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 3.072, 95 % CI 1.843-8.004; p = 0.009) and blood loss >1000 mL (HR = 4.272, 95 % CI 1.080-18.141; p = 0.031). Among 26 (35 %) patients with abdominal infectious complications, 13 (17 %) experienced isolated complications. A positive RLBA result was independently associated with abdominal infectious complications (HR = 5.108, 95 % CI 1.220-16.336; p = 0.024) and isolated abdominal infectious complications (HR = 4.199, 95 % CI 1.064-15.961; p = 0.04). Forty percent of the RLBA samples obtained following CRS/HIPEC tested positive for bacteria. Bacterial sampling of rinsing liquid should be systematically performed. An aggressive and immediate antibiotic strategy needs to be evaluated.

  20. Factors associated with the risk of fall in adults in the postoperative period: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mata, Luciana Regina Ferreira da; Azevedo, Cissa; Policarpo, Aryanne Gabrielle; Moraes, Juliano Teixeira

    2017-06-08

    to assess the factors associated with the risk of fall in patients undergoing surgical procedures. quantitative and cross-sectional study carried out with 257 adult patients in a hospital in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Data were collected using the sociodemographic and clinical questionnaire, the Morse Fall Scale, and the Quality of Recovery Score. Data were submitted to descriptive statistical analysis and multinomial logistic regression. The level of significance was set at 0.05. 35.4% of patients had high risk of falls, 38.9% had moderate risk and 25.7% had low risk. The mean value in the surgical recovery scale was 175.37 points and no patient presented poor surgical recovery. Regarding the results of the bivariate analysis, it was found that age (prisk of fall, whereas cancer (p=0.004) was positively associated with moderate risk of fall. Surgical recovery (p=0,008) was inversely associated with high risk of fall. the results of this study allowed the identification of five factors associated with the risk of fall in adults in the postoperative hospital stay. These findings may support the planning of nursing actions aimed at preventing the risk of fall in the postoperative period. evaluar los factores asociados al riesgo de caída en pacientes sometidos a procedimientos quirúrgicos. estudio cuantitativo, transversal, realizado en 257 pacientes adultos en un hospital de Minas Gerais, Brasil. La recolección de datos se realizó por medio de un cuestionario sociodemográfico y clínico, Morse Fall Scale Quality of Recovery Score. Los datos fueron sometidos al análisis estadístico descriptivo y regresión logística multinomial. El nivel de significación adoptado fue de 0,05. 35,4% de los pacientes presentaron elevado riesgo de caídas, 38,9% moderado riesgo y 25,7% bajo riesgo. La escala de recuperación quirúrgica indicó valor promedio de 175,37 puntos y ningún paciente presentó recuperación quirúrgica precaria. En relación a los resultados

  1. A novel risk score to predict cardiovascular disease risk in national populations (Globorisk)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Ueda, Peter; Lu, Yuan

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Treatment of cardiovascular risk factors based on disease risk depends on valid risk prediction equations. We aimed to develop, and apply in example countries, a risk prediction equation for cardiovascular disease (consisting here of coronary heart disease and stroke) that can be reca...

  2. [Acute kidney injury after pediatric cardiac surgery: risk factors and outcomes. Proposal for a predictive model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, Bárbara; Laranjo, Sérgio; Gomes, Inês; Freitas, Isabel; Trigo, Conceição; Fragata, Isabel; Fragata, José; Pinto, Fátima

    2016-02-01

    To characterize the epidemiology and risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) after pediatric cardiac surgery in our center, to determine its association with poor short-term outcomes, and to develop a logistic regression model that will predict the risk of AKI for the study population. This single-center, retrospective study included consecutive pediatric patients with congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2012. Exclusion criteria were a history of renal disease, dialysis or renal transplantation. Of the 325 patients included, median age three years (1 day-18 years), AKI occurred in 40 (12.3%) on the first postoperative day. Overall mortality was 13 (4%), nine of whom were in the AKI group. AKI was significantly associated with length of intensive care unit stay, length of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death (p<0.01). Patients' age and postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were included in the logistic regression model as predictor variables. The model accurately predicted AKI in this population, with a maximum combined sensitivity of 82.1% and specificity of 75.4%. AKI is common and is associated with poor short-term outcomes in this setting. Younger age and higher postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were powerful predictors of renal injury in this population. The proposed model could be a useful tool for risk stratification of these patients. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  3. Drug response prediction in high-risk multiple myeloma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vangsted, A J; Helm-Petersen, S; Cowland, J B

    2018-01-01

    from high-risk patients by GEP70 at diagnosis from Total Therapy 2 and 3A to predict the response by the DRP score of drugs used in the treatment of myeloma patients. The DRP score stratified patients further. High-risk myeloma with a predicted sensitivity to melphalan by the DRP score had a prolonged...

  4. Risk stratification in upper gastrointestinal bleeding; prediction, prevention and prognosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Groot, N.L.

    2013-01-01

    In the first part of this thesis we developed a novel prediction score for predicting upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding in both NSAID and low-dose aspirin users. Both for NSAIDs and low-dose aspirin use risk scores were developed by identifying the five most dominant predictors. The risk of upper

  5. Submucosal Plexitis as a Predictive Factor for Postoperative Endoscopic Recurrence in Patients with Crohn's Disease Undergoing a Resection with Ileocolonic Anastomosis: Results from a Prospective Single-centre Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmens, Bart; de Buck van Overstraeten, Anthony; Arijs, Ingrid; Sagaert, Xavier; Van Assche, Gert; Vermeire, Séverine; Tertychnyy, Alexander; Geboes, Karel; Wolthuis, Albert; D'Hoore, Andre; De Hertogh, Gert; Ferrante, Marc

    2017-02-01

    Ileocolonoscopy allows early detection of recurrence after surgical resection for Crohn's disease [CD]. Plexitis, defined as presence of inflammatory cells in or around enteric ganglia or nerve bundles, in the proximal surgical margin has been associated with an increased overall recurrence risk. We investigated prospectively whether plexitis can predict endoscopic recurrence [ER] in a consecutive cohort of CD patients undergoing ileocolonic resection. All CD patients undergoing ileocolonic resection in our institution between October 2009 and December 2012 were eligible for this study. Clinical data were obtained prospectively from the patients' files, and biopsies from the proximal surgical margins were analysed immunohistochemically for inflammation at the myenteric and submucosal plexus [lymphocytes, mast cells, eosinophils]. The degree of plexitis was correlated with the presence of ER at 6 months, defined as a modified Rutgeerts' score of ≥ i2b. Multivariate models were developed and tested to predict posterior probability of ER. A total of 74 patients were included. Six months after ileocolonic resection, 50% showed ER. Known risk factors such as penetrating disease, previous resections, and active smoking, showed no relation with ER. On the other hand, submucosal lymphocytic plexitis was associated with ER [p = 0.020]. The predictive value of lymphocytic cell count increased with more extensive biopsy sampling and with application of immunohistochemistry. Submucosal lymphocytic plexitis in the proximal surgical margin was significantly related with a higher risk for ER after ileocolonic resection. These data support development of a postoperative prevention trial with vedolizumab, which may block lymphocytic trafficking in the postoperative bowel. Copyright © 2016 European Crohn’s and Colitis Organisation (ECCO). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Post-Operative Infection Is an Independent Risk Factor for Worse Long-Term Survival after Colorectal Cancer Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerin Povšič, Milena; Ihan, Alojz; Beovič, Bojana

    2016-12-01

    Colorectal cancer surgery is associated with a high incidence of post-operative infections, the outcome of which may be improved if diagnosed and treated early enough. We compared white blood cell (WBC) count, C-reactive protein (CRP), and procalcitonin (PCT) as predictors of post-operative infections and analyzed their impact on long-term survival. This retrospective study included 186 patients undergoing colorectal surgery. Post-operative values of WBC, CRP, and PCT were analyzed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. We followed infections 30 d after the surgery. A five-year survival was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier method and prognostic factors by Cox regression model. Fifty-five patients (29.5%) developed post-operative infection, the most frequent of which was surgical site infection (SSI). C-reactive protein on post-operative day three and PCT on post-operative day two demonstrated the highest diagnostic accuracy for infection (area under the curve [AUC] 0.739 and 0.735). C-reactive protein on post-operative day three was an independent predictor of infection. Five-year survival was higher in the non-infected group (70.8%), compared with the infected group (52.1%). The worst survival (40.9%) was identified in patients with organ/space SSI. Post-operative infection and tumor stage III-IV were independent predictors of a worse five-year survival. C-reactive protein on post-operative day three and PCT on post-operative day two may be early predictors of infection after colorectal cancer surgery. Post-operative infections in particular organ/space SSI have a negative impact on long-term survival.

  7. Predictability of cardiovascular risks by psychological measures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šolcová, Iva; Kebza, V.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 1 (2008), s. 241-241 ISSN 0887-0446 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA406/06/0747 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70250504 Keywords : CVD risks * psychological measures * physiological risks Subject RIV: AN - Psychology

  8. Predicting risk of cancer during HIV infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borges, Álvaro H; Silverberg, Michael J; Wentworth, Deborah

    2013-01-01

    To investigate the relationship between inflammatory [interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP)] and coagulation (D-dimer) biomarkers and cancer risk during HIV infection.......To investigate the relationship between inflammatory [interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP)] and coagulation (D-dimer) biomarkers and cancer risk during HIV infection....

  9. Comparison of Predictive Factors for Postoperative Incontinence of Holmium Laser Enucleation of the Prostate by the Surgeons' Experience During Learning Curve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shigemura, Katsumi; Tanaka, Kazushi; Yamamichi, Fukashi; Chiba, Koji; Fujisawa, Masato

    2016-03-01

    To detect predictive factors for postoperative incontinence following holmium laser enucleation of the prostate (HoLEP) according to surgeon experience (beginner or experienced) and preoperative clinical data. Of 224 patients, a total of 203 with available data on incontinence were investigated. The potential predictive factors for post-HoLEP incontinence included clinical factors, such as patient age, and preoperative urodynamic study results, including detrusor overactivity (DO). We also classified the surgeons performing the procedure according to their HoLEP experience: beginner (predictive factor at the super-short period (the next day of catheter removal: odds ratio [OR], 3.375; P=0.000). Additionally, patient age, surgeon mentorship (inverse correlation), and prostate volume were significant predictive factors at the 1-month interval after HoLEP (OR, 1.072; P=0.004; OR, 0.251; P=0.002; and OR, 1.008; P=0.049, respectively). With regards to surgeon experience, DO and preoperative International Prostate Symptom Score (inverse) at the super-short period, and patient age and mentorship (inverse correlation) at the 1-month interval after HoLEP (OR, 3.952; P=0.002; OR, 1.084; P=0.015; and OR,1.084; P=0.015; OR, 0.358; P=0.003, respectively) were significant predictive factors for beginners, and first desire to void (FDV) at 1 month after HoLEP (OR, 1.009; P=0.012) was a significant predictive factor for experienced surgeons in multivariate analysis. Preoperative DO, IPSS, patient age, and surgeon mentorship were significant predictive factors of postoperative patient incontinence for beginner surgeons, while FDV was a significant predictive factors for experienced surgeons. These findings should be taken into account by surgeons performing HoLEP to maximize the patient's quality of life with regards to urinary continence.

  10. Global Variance Risk Premium and Forex Return Predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Aloosh, Arash

    2014-01-01

    In a long-run risk model with stochastic volatility and frictionless markets, I express expected forex returns as a function of consumption growth variances and stock variance risk premiums (VRPs)—the difference between the risk-neutral and statistical expectations of market return variation. This provides a motivation for using the forward-looking information available in stock market volatility indices to predict forex returns. Empirically, I find that stock VRPs predict forex returns at a ...

  11. Risk factors for unfavourable postoperative outcome in patients with Crohn's disease undergoing right hemicolectomy or ileocaecal resection. An international audit by ESCP and S-ECCO

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2018-01-01

    and intra-operative risk factors on 30-day postoperative outcome in patients undergoing surgery for Crohn's disease. MethodThis was an international prospective snapshot audit including consecutive patients undergoing right hemicolectomy or ileocaecal resection. The study analysed a subset of patients who...... to produce odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. ResultsIn all, 375 resections in 375 patients were included. The median age was 37 and 57.1% were women. In multivariate analyses, postoperative complications were associated with preoperative parenteral nutrition (OR 2.36, 95% CI 1.10-4.97), urgent...

  12. Description of preoperative risk factors and postoperative complications of radical hysterectomy in patients of Hospital Dr. Rafael Angel Calderon Guardia: period 2000-2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sosa Quesada, Carlos Ivan; Wang Zuniga, Sylvia

    2008-01-01

    Preoperative risk factors and postoperative complications were determined in patients with radical hysterectomy in gynecologic oncology service of Hospital Rafael Angel Calderon Guardia in 2000-2006. Radical hysterectomy Piver type II and III was carried out among women in the gynecology service. The information derived from the qualitative variables were analyzed using frequency distributions and percentages. The most common preoperative comorbidity has been hypertension, the most frequently encountered complication has been urinary incontinence. Postoperative complications have been located in a period less than three months. [es

  13. Does Microscope Assistance in Cold Steel Tonsillectomy Reduce the Risk of Postoperative Hemorrhage? Results of a Prospective Cohort Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Wilhelm

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Posttonsillectomy hemorrhage (PTH is the most feared complication. Dissection near the tonsillar capsule under microscopic view (TEmic could be assumed to decrease PTH compared to traditional tonsillectomy (TEtrad. Methods. In this study, patients were evaluated with respect to the need for surgical control (R/N: return/no return to theater (RTT: the day of surgery [0] or thereafter [1]. The findings at resection site and pain were measured. Results. 869 patients were included (183 TEmic; 686 TEtrad. PTH requiring RTT was not seen in the TEmic group on the day of surgery (R0 while PTH requiring RTT subsequently (R1 was seen in 1.1% of the cases. In the TEmic group, hemorrhages without a need for surgical control were observed in 0.6% (N0 and 3.4% (N1, respectively. The corresponding rates for TEtrad were as follows: R0, 0.3%; R1, 1.7%; N0, 0.6%; and N1, 3.6% (p>0.05. Postoperative edema and local infection at resection site were proven to be predictive of PTH (p=0.007. Conclusion. Microscope assistance in tonsillectomy did not statistically have an influence on the PTH even though there was a trend towards lower PTH rate in the TEmic group. Benefit for TEmic was observed in high-volume and long experienced surgeons.

  14. Reduced CBF recovery detected by longitudinal 3D-SSP SPECT analyses predicts outcome of postoperative patients after subarachnoid haemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutoh, Tatsushi; Totsune, Tomoko; Takenaka, Shunsuke; Tatewaki, Yasuko; Nakagawa, Manabu; Suarez, Jose I; Taki, Yasuyuki; Ishikawa, Tatsuya

    2018-02-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of cerebral blood flow (CBF) recovery obtained from brain single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) images on postoperative outcome after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH). Twenty-nine patients who had undergone surgical clipping for ruptured anterior communicating artery aneurysms were analyzed prospectively. Routine measurements of CBF were performed using technetium-99 m hexamethyl propyleneamine oxine SPECT on days 4 and 14 after SAH. Regional voxel data analyzed by three dimensional stereotactic surface projection (3D-SSP) were compared between patients and age-matched normal database (NDB). In 3D-SSP analysis of all patients, cortical hypoperfusion around the surgical site in bilateral frontal lobes was evident on day 4 (P SSP SPECT image analyses can be a potential predictor of poor prognosis in postoperative patients after SAH. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  15. Value of the post-operative CT in predicting delayed flap failures following head and neck cancer surgery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Bitna; Yoon, Dae Young; Seo, Young Lan; Park, Min Woo; Kwon, Kee Hwan; Rho, Young Soo; Chung, Chul Hoon

    2017-01-01

    To identify post-operative computed tomography (CT) findings associated with delayed flap failures following head and neck cancer surgery. We retrospectively reviewed 60 patients who underwent flap reconstruction after head and neck cancer surgery and post-operative (3–14 days) contrast-enhanced CT scans for suspected complications. Patients were divided into two groups: delayed flap failure patients (patients required flap revision) (n = 18) and flap success patients (n = 42). Clinical data (age, sex, T-stage, type of flap, and time interval between reconstruction surgery and CT) and post-operative CT findings of flap status (maximum dimension of the flap, intra- or peri-flap fluid collection and intra- or peri-flap air collection, fat infiltration within the flap, fistula to adjacent aerodigestive tract or skin, and enhanced vascular pedicle) were assessed and compared between the two groups. CT findings showed that the following flap anomalies were observed more frequently in the delayed flap failure group than in the flap success group: intra- or peri-flap fluid collection > 4 cm (61.1% vs. 23.8%, p 2 cm (61.1% vs. 2.4%, p < 0.001), and fistula to adjacent aerodigestive tract or skin (44.4% vs. 0%, p < 0.001). The maximum dimension of the flap, fat infiltration within the flap, and enhanced vascular pedicle were not associated with delayed flap failures. A large amount of fluid or air collection and fistula are the CT findings that were associated with delayed flap failures in patients with suspected post-operative complications after head and neck cancer surgery

  16. Value of the post-operative CT in predicting delayed flap failures following head and neck cancer surgery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bitna; Yoon, Dae Young; Seo, Young Lan; Park, Min Woo; Kwon, Kee Hwan; Rho, Young Soo; Chung, Chul Hoon [Kangdong Sacred Heart Hospital, Hallym University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-06-15

    To identify post-operative computed tomography (CT) findings associated with delayed flap failures following head and neck cancer surgery. We retrospectively reviewed 60 patients who underwent flap reconstruction after head and neck cancer surgery and post-operative (3–14 days) contrast-enhanced CT scans for suspected complications. Patients were divided into two groups: delayed flap failure patients (patients required flap revision) (n = 18) and flap success patients (n = 42). Clinical data (age, sex, T-stage, type of flap, and time interval between reconstruction surgery and CT) and post-operative CT findings of flap status (maximum dimension of the flap, intra- or peri-flap fluid collection and intra- or peri-flap air collection, fat infiltration within the flap, fistula to adjacent aerodigestive tract or skin, and enhanced vascular pedicle) were assessed and compared between the two groups. CT findings showed that the following flap anomalies were observed more frequently in the delayed flap failure group than in the flap success group: intra- or peri-flap fluid collection > 4 cm (61.1% vs. 23.8%, p < 0.05), intra- or peri-flap air collection > 2 cm (61.1% vs. 2.4%, p < 0.001), and fistula to adjacent aerodigestive tract or skin (44.4% vs. 0%, p < 0.001). The maximum dimension of the flap, fat infiltration within the flap, and enhanced vascular pedicle were not associated with delayed flap failures. A large amount of fluid or air collection and fistula are the CT findings that were associated with delayed flap failures in patients with suspected post-operative complications after head and neck cancer surgery.

  17. Lipoprotein metabolism indicators improve cardiovascular risk prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schalkwijk, D.B. van; Graaf, A.A. de; Tsivtsivadze, E.; Parnell, L.D.; Werff-van der Vat, B.J.C. van der; Ommen, B. van; Greef, J. van der; Ordovás, J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Cardiovascular disease risk increases when lipoprotein metabolism is dysfunctional. We have developed a computational model able to derive indicators of lipoprotein production, lipolysis, and uptake processes from a single lipoprotein profile measurement. This is the first study to

  18. Develop mental dyslexia: predicting individual risk

    OpenAIRE

    Thompson, PA; Hulme, C; Nash, HM; Gooch, Deborah; Hayiou-Thomas, E; Snowling, MJ

    2015-01-01

    Background Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. Methods The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited...

  19. Calibration plots for risk prediction models in the presence of competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas A; Andersen, Per K; Kattan, Michael W

    2014-01-01

    A predicted risk of 17% can be called reliable if it can be expected that the event will occur to about 17 of 100 patients who all received a predicted risk of 17%. Statistical models can predict the absolute risk of an event such as cardiovascular death in the presence of competing risks...... prediction model is well calibrated. The first is lack of independent validation data, the second is right censoring, and the third is that when the risk scale is continuous, the estimation problem is as difficult as density estimation. To deal with these problems, we propose to estimate calibration curves...

  20. Zero-profile anchored cage reduces risk of postoperative dysphagia compared with cage with plate fixation after anterior cervical discectomy and fusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, ShanWen; Liang, ZhuDe; Wei, Wu; Ning, JinPei

    2017-04-01

    To compare the rate of postoperative dysphagia between zero-profile anchored cage fixation (ZPC group) and cage with plate fixation (CP group) after anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF). A meta-analysis of cohort studies between zero-profile anchored cage and conventional cage with plate fixation after ACDF for the treatment of cervical diseases from 2008 to May 2016. An extensive search of studies was performed in PubMed, Medline, Embase, Cochrane library and Google Scholar. Dysphagia rate was extracted. Data analysis was conducted with RevMan 5.2. Sixteen trials involving 1066 patients were included in this meta-analysis. The results suggested that the ZPC group were associated with lower incidences of dysphagia than the CP group at postoperative immediately, 2 weeks, 2, 3, 6 and 12 months. In subgroup analysis, although significant differences were only found in the mild dysphagia at 3 and 6 months postoperatively and in the moderate dysphagia at 2 weeks after surgery; the ZPC group had a lower rate of postoperative dysphagia than the CCP group in short, medium and long term follow-up periods. Zero-profile anchored cage had a lower risk of postoperative dysphagia than cage with plate.

  1. Can an arthroplasty risk score predict bundled care events after total joint arthroplasty?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blair S. Ashley, MD

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The validated Arthroplasty Risk Score (ARS predicts the need for postoperative triage to an intensive care setting. We hypothesized that the ARS may also predict hospital length of stay (LOS, discharge disposition, and episode-of-care cost (EOCC. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed a series of 704 patients undergoing primary total hip and knee arthroplasty over 17 months. Patient characteristics, 90-day EOCC, LOS, and readmission rates were compared before and after ARS implementation. Results: ARS implementation was associated with fewer patients going to a skilled nursing or rehabilitation facility after discharge (63% vs 74%, P = .002. There was no difference in LOS, EOCC, readmission rates, or complications. While the adoption of the ARS did not change the mean EOCC, ARS >3 was predictive of high EOCC outlier (odds ratio 2.65, 95% confidence interval 1.40-5.01, P = .003. Increased ARS correlated with increased EOCC (P = .003. Conclusions: Implementation of the ARS was associated with increased disposition to home. It was predictive of high EOCC and should be considered in risk adjustment variables in alternative payment models. Keywords: Bundled payments, Risk stratification, Arthroplasty

  2. Performance of a Nomogram Predicting Disease-Specific Survival After an R0 Resection for Gastric Cancer in Patients Receiving Postoperative Chemoradiation Therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dikken, Johan L. [Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Department of Surgery, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden (Netherlands); Coit, Daniel G. [Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Baser, Raymond E.; Gönen, Mithat [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Goodman, Karyn A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Brennan, Murray F. [Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Jansen, Edwin P.M. [Department of Radiotherapy, The Netherlands Cancer Institute–Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Boot, Henk [Department of Gastroenterology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute–Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Velde, Cornelis J.H. van de [Department of Surgery, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden (Netherlands); Cats, Annemieke [Department of Gastroenterology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute–Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Verheij, Marcel, E-mail: m.verheij@nki.nl [Department of Radiotherapy, The Netherlands Cancer Institute–Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2014-03-01

    Purpose: The internationally validated Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) gastric carcinoma nomogram was based on patients who underwent curative (R0) gastrectomy, without any other therapy. The purpose of the current study was to assess the performance of this gastric cancer nomogram in patients who received chemoradiation therapy after an R0 resection for gastric cancer. Methods and Materials: In a combined dataset of 76 patients from the Netherlands Cancer Institute (NKI), and 63 patients from MSKCC, who received postoperative chemoradiation therapy (CRT) after an R0 gastrectomy, the nomogram was validated by means of the concordance index (CI) and a calibration plot. Results: The concordance index for the nomogram was 0.64, which was lower than the CI of the nomogram for patients who received no adjuvant therapy (0.80). In the calibration plot, observed survival was approximately 20% higher than the nomogram-predicted survival for patients receiving postoperative CRT. Conclusions: The MSKCC gastric carcinoma nomogram significantly underpredicted survival for patients in the current study, suggesting an impact of postoperative CRT on survival in patients who underwent an R0 resection for gastric cancer, which has been demonstrated by randomized controlled trials. This analysis stresses the need for updating nomograms with the incorporation of multimodal strategies.

  3. Water erosion risk prediction in eucalyptus plantations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayesse Aparecida da Silva

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Eucalyptus plantations are normally found in vulnerable ecosystems such as steep slope, soil with low natural fertility and lands that were degraded by agriculture. The objective of this study was to obtain Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE factors and use them to estimate water erosion risk in regions with eucalyptus planted. The USLE factors were obtained in field plots under natural rainfall in the Rio Doce Basin, MG, Brazil, and the model applied to assess erosion risk using USLE in a Geographic Information System. The study area showed rainfall-runoff erosivity values from 10,721 to 10,642 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1. Some soils (Latosols had very low erodibility values (2.0 x 10-4 and 1.0 x 10-4t h MJ-1 mm-1, the topographic factor ranged from 0.03 to 10.57 and crop and management factor values obtained for native forest, eucalyptus and planted pasture were 0.09, 0.12 and 0.22, respectively. Water erosion risk estimates for current land use indicated that the areas where should receive more attention were mainly areas with greater topographic factors and those with Cambisols. Planning of forestry activities in this region should consider implementation of other conservation practices beyond those already used, reducing areas with a greater risk of soil erosion and increasing areas with very low risk.

  4. Risk factors for post-operative periprosthetic fractures following primary total hip arthroplasty with a proximally coated double-tapered cementless femoral component

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gromov, K; Bersang, A; Nielsen, C S

    2017-01-01

    ratio were recorded post-operatively. Periprosthetic fractures were identified and classified according to the Vancouver classification. Regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for early periprosthetic fracture. RESULTS: The mean follow-up was 713 days (1 to 2058). A total of 48......AIMS: The aim of this study was to identify patient- and surgery-related risk factors for sustaining an early periprosthetic fracture following primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) performed using a double-tapered cementless femoral component (Bi-Metric femoral stem; Biomet Inc., Warsaw, Indiana...... periprosthetic fractures (3.0%) were identified during the follow-up and median time until fracture was 16 days, (interquartile range 10 to 31.5). Patients with femoral Dorr type C had a 5.2 times increased risk of post-operative periprosthetic fracture compared with type B, while female patients had a near...

  5. Predicting risk and the emergence of schizophrenia.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Clarke, Mary C

    2012-09-01

    This article gives an overview of genetic and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia. The presence of certain molecular, biological, and psychosocial factors at certain points in the life span, has been linked to later development of schizophrenia. All need to be considered in the context of schizophrenia as a lifelong brain disorder. Research interest in schizophrenia is shifting to late childhood\\/early adolescence for screening and preventative measures. This article discusses those environmental risk factors for schizophrenia for which there is the largest evidence base.

  6. Tibial Eminence Involvement With Tibial Plateau Fracture Predicts Slower Recovery and Worse Postoperative Range of Knee Motion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konda, Sanjit R; Driesman, Adam; Manoli, Arthur; Davidovitch, Roy I; Egol, Kenneth A

    2017-07-01

    To examine 1-year functional and clinical outcomes in patients with tibial plateau fractures with tibial eminence involvement. Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. Academic Medical Center. All patients who presented with a tibial plateau fracture (Orthopaedic Trauma Association (OTA) 41-B and 41-C). Patients were divided into fractures with a tibial eminence component (+TE) and those without (-TE) cohorts. All patients underwent similar surgical approaches and fixation techniques for fractures. No tibial eminence fractures received fixation specifically. Short musculoskeletal functional assessment (SMFA), pain (Visual Analogue Scale), and knee range-of-motion (ROM) were evaluated at 3, 6, and 12 months postoperatively and compared between cohorts. Two hundred ninety-three patients were included for review. Patients with OTA 41-C fractures were more likely to have an associated TE compared with 41-B fractures (63% vs. 28%, P knee ROM (75.16 ± 51 vs. 86.82 ± 53 degree, P = 0.06). At 6 months, total SMFA and knee ROM was significantly worse in the +TE cohort (29 ± 17 vs. 21 ± 18, P ≤ 0.01; 115.6 ± 20 vs. 124.1 ± 15, P = 0.01). By 12 months postoperatively, only knee ROM remained significantly worse in the +TE cohort (118.7 ± 15 vs. 126.9 ± 13, P time points. Knee ROM remains worse throughout the postoperative period in the +TE cohort. Functional outcome improves less rapidly in the +TE cohort but achieves similar results by 1 year. Prognostic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

  7. Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

  8. Clinical audit in gynecological cancer surgery: development of a risk scoring system to predict adverse events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondalsamy-Chennakesavan, Srinivas; Bouman, Chantal; De Jong, Suzanne; Sanday, Karen; Nicklin, Jim; Land, Russell; Obermair, Andreas

    2009-12-01

    Advanced gynecological surgery undertaken in a specialized gynecologic oncology unit may be associated with significant perioperative morbidity. Validated risk prediction models are available for general surgical specialties but currently not for gynecological cancer surgery. The objective of this study was to evaluate risk factors for adverse events (AEs) of patients treated for suspected or proven gynecological cancer and to develop a clinical risk score (RS) to predict such AEs. AEs were prospectively recorded and matched with demographical, clinical and histopathological data on 369 patients who had an abdominal or laparoscopic procedure for proven or suspected gynecological cancer at a tertiary gynecological cancer center. Stepwise multiple logistic regression was used to determine the best predictors of AEs. For the risk score (RS), the coefficients from the model were scaled using a factor of 2 and rounded to the nearest integer to derive the risk points. Sum of all the risk points form the RS. Ninety-five patients (25.8%) had at least one AE. Twenty-nine (7.9%) and 77 (20.9%) patients experienced intra- and postoperative AEs respectively with 11 patients (3.0%) experiencing both. The independent predictors for any AE were complexity of the surgical procedure, elevated SGOT (serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase, > or /=35 U/L), higher ASA scores and overweight. The risk score can vary from 0 to 14. The risk for developing any AE is described by the formula 100 / (1 + e((3.697 - (RS /2)))). RS allows for quantification of the risk for AEs. Risk factors are generally not modifiable with the possible exception of obesity.

  9. Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

  10. Prediction of Banking Systemic Risk Based on Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shouwei Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Banking systemic risk is a complex nonlinear phenomenon and has shed light on the importance of safeguarding financial stability by recent financial crisis. According to the complex nonlinear characteristics of banking systemic risk, in this paper we apply support vector machine (SVM to the prediction of banking systemic risk in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. We conduct a case study of an SVM-based prediction model for Chinese banking systemic risk and find the experiment results showing that support vector machine is an efficient method in such case.

  11. Individualized Prediction of Overall Survival After Postoperative Radiation Therapy in Patients With Early-Stage Cervical Cancer: A Korean Radiation Oncology Group Study (KROG 13-03)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Hyun Jin [Department of Radiation Oncology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Han, Seungbong [Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Young Seok, E-mail: ysk@amc.seoul.kr [Department of Radiation Oncology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Nam, Joo-Hyun [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Hak Jae [Department of Radiation Oncology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jae Weon [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Park, Won [Department of Radiation Oncology, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Byoung-Gie [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jin Hee [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dongsan Medical Center, Keimyung University School of Medicine, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Cha, Soon Do [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Dongsan Medical Center, Keimyung University School of Medicine, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Juree [Department of Radiation Oncology, Cheil General Hospital and Women' s Healthcare Center, Kwandong University, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Ki-Heon [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Cheil General Hospital and Women' s Healthcare Center, Kwandong University, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Mee Sun [Department of Radiation Oncology, Chonnam National University Hwasun Hospital, Chonnam National University Medical School, Jeollanam-do (Korea, Republic of); and others

    2013-11-15

    Purpose: A nomogram is a predictive statistical model that generates the continuous probability of a clinical event such as death or recurrence. The aim of the study was to construct a nomogram to predict 5-year overall survival after postoperative radiation therapy for stage IB to IIA cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: The clinical data from 1702 patients with early-stage cervical cancer, treated at 10 participating hospitals from 1990 to 2011, were reviewed to develop a prediction nomogram based on the Cox proportional hazards model. Demographic, clinical, and pathologic variables were included and analyzed to formulate the nomogram. The discrimination and calibration power of the model was measured using a concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve. Results: The median follow-up period for surviving patients was 75.6 months, and the 5-year overall survival probability was 87.1%. The final model was constructed using the following variables: age, number of positive pelvic lymph nodes, parametrial invasion, lymphovascular invasion, and the use of concurrent chemotherapy. The nomogram predicted the 5-year overall survival with a c-index of 0.69, which was superior to the predictive power of the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging system (c-index of 0.54). Conclusions: A survival-predicting nomogram that offers an accurate level of prediction and discrimination was developed based on a large multi-center study. The model may be more useful than the FIGO staging system for counseling individual patients regarding prognosis.

  12. Individualized Prediction of Overall Survival After Postoperative Radiation Therapy in Patients With Early-Stage Cervical Cancer: A Korean Radiation Oncology Group Study (KROG 13-03)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hyun Jin; Han, Seungbong; Kim, Young Seok; Nam, Joo-Hyun; Kim, Hak Jae; Kim, Jae Weon; Park, Won; Kim, Byoung-Gie; Kim, Jin Hee; Cha, Soon Do; Kim, Juree; Lee, Ki-Heon; Yoon, Mee Sun

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: A nomogram is a predictive statistical model that generates the continuous probability of a clinical event such as death or recurrence. The aim of the study was to construct a nomogram to predict 5-year overall survival after postoperative radiation therapy for stage IB to IIA cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: The clinical data from 1702 patients with early-stage cervical cancer, treated at 10 participating hospitals from 1990 to 2011, were reviewed to develop a prediction nomogram based on the Cox proportional hazards model. Demographic, clinical, and pathologic variables were included and analyzed to formulate the nomogram. The discrimination and calibration power of the model was measured using a concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve. Results: The median follow-up period for surviving patients was 75.6 months, and the 5-year overall survival probability was 87.1%. The final model was constructed using the following variables: age, number of positive pelvic lymph nodes, parametrial invasion, lymphovascular invasion, and the use of concurrent chemotherapy. The nomogram predicted the 5-year overall survival with a c-index of 0.69, which was superior to the predictive power of the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging system (c-index of 0.54). Conclusions: A survival-predicting nomogram that offers an accurate level of prediction and discrimination was developed based on a large multi-center study. The model may be more useful than the FIGO staging system for counseling individual patients regarding prognosis

  13. Low skeletal muscle mass outperforms the Charlson Comorbidity Index in risk prediction in patients undergoing pancreatic resections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, D; Marsoner, K; Tomberger, A; Haybaeck, J; Haas, J; Werkgartner, G; Cerwenka, H; Bacher, H; Mischinger, H J; Kornprat, P

    2018-05-01

    Low skeletal muscle mass is a known predictor of morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing major pancreatic surgeries. We sought to combine low skeletal muscle mass with established risk predictors to improve their prognostic capacity for postoperative outcome and morbidity. As established parameters to predict preoperative mortality risk for patients, the ASA classification and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were used. The Hounsfield Units Average Calculation (HUAC) was measured to define low skeletal muscle mass in 424 patients undergoing pancreatic resections for malignancies. Patients in the lowest sex-adjusted quartile for HUAC were defined as having low skeletal muscle mass (muscle wasting). Multivariable Cox regression analysis was utilized to identify preoperative risk factors associated with postoperative morbidity. Median patient age was 63 years (19-87), 47.9% patients were male, and half the cohort had multiple comorbidities (Charlson Comorbidity Index [CCI]>6, 63.2%), 30-day mortality was 5.8% (n = 25). Median HUAC was 19.78 HU (IQR: 15.94-23.54) with 145 patients (34.2%) having low skeletal muscle mass. Preoperative frailty defined by low skeletal muscle mass was associated with an increased risk for postoperative complications (OR 1.55, CI 95% 0.98-2.45, p = 0.014), and a higher 30-day mortality (HR 5.17, CI 95% 1.57-16.69, p = 0.004). With an AUC of 0.85 HUAC showed the highest predictability for 30-day mortality (CI 95% 0.78-0.91, p = 0.0001). Patients with CCI ≥6 and low skeletal muscle mass defined by the HUAC had a 9.78 higher risk of dying in the immediate postoperative phase (HR 9.78, CI 95% 2.98-12.2, p = 0.0001). Low skeletal muscle mass predicts postoperative mortality and complications best and it should be incorporated to conventional risk scores to identify high risk patients. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd, BASO ~ The Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology. All rights

  14. Elderly fall risk prediction using static posturography

    OpenAIRE

    Howcroft, Jennifer; Lemaire, Edward D.; Kofman, Jonathan; McIlroy, William E.

    2017-01-01

    Maintaining and controlling postural balance is important for activities of daily living, with poor postural balance being predictive of future falls. This study investigated eyes open and eyes closed standing posturography with elderly adults to identify differences and determine appropriate outcome measure cut-off scores for prospective faller, single-faller, multi-faller, and non-faller classifications. 100 older adults (75.5 ± 6.7 years) stood quietly with eyes open and then eyes closed w...

  15. Does the Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool Predict Discharge Disposition After Joint Replacement?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Viktor J.; Gromov, Kirill; Lebrun, Lauren M

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Payers of health services and policymakers place a major focus on cost containment in health care. Studies have shown that early planning of discharge is essential in reducing length of stay and achieving financial benefit; tools that can help predict discharge disposition would...... populations is unknown. A low RAPT score is reported to indicate a high risk of needing any form of inpatient rehabilitation after TJA, including short-term nursing facilities. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: This study attempts (1) to assess predictive accuracy of the RAPT on US patients undergoing total hip and knee....... Based on our findings, the risk categories in our populations should be high risk intermediate risk 7 to 10, and low risk > 10. CONCLUSIONS: The RAPT accurately predicted discharge disposition for high- and low-risk patients in our cohort. Based on our data, intermediate-risk patients should...

  16. Is there an increased risk of post-operative surgical site infection after orthopaedic surgery in HIV patients? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kigera, James W M; Straetemans, Masja; Vuhaka, Simplice K; Nagel, Ingeborg M; Naddumba, Edward K; Boer, Kimberly

    2012-01-01

    There is dilemma as to whether patients infected with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) requiring implant orthopaedic surgery are at an increased risk for post-operative surgical site infection (SSI). We conducted a systematic review to determine the effect of HIV on the risk of post-operative SSI and sought to determine if this risk is altered by antibiotic use beyond 24 hours. We searched electronic databases, manually searched citations from relevant articles, and reviewed conference proceedings. The risk of postoperative SSI was pooled using Mantel-Haenszel method. We identified 18 cohort studies with 16 mainly small studies, addressing the subject. The pooled risk ratio of infection in the HIV patients when compared to non-HIV patients was 1.8 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.3-2.4), in studies in Africa this was 2.3 (95% CI 1.5-3.5). In a sensitivity analysis the risk ratio was reduced to 1.4 (95% CI 0.5-3.8). The risk ratio of infection in patients receiving prolonged antibiotics compared to patients receiving antibiotics for up to 24 hours was 0.7 (95% CI 0.1-4.2). The results may indicate an increased risk in HIV infected patients but these results are not robust and inconclusive after conducting the sensitivity analysis removing poor quality studies. There is need for larger good quality studies to provide conclusive evidence. To better develop surgical protocols, further studies should determine the effect of reduced CD4 counts, viral load suppression and prolonged antibiotics on the risk for infection.

  17. Increased risk of post-operative complications in patients with Crohn’s disease treated with anti-tumour necrosis factor α agents - a systematic review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    El-Hussuna, Alaa; Theede, Klaus; Olaison, Per Olov Gunnar

    2014-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Tumour necrosis factor α (TNF-α) plays a role in the immune defence, angiogenesis and collagen synthesis. Inhibition of these pathways may increase the risk of infections and impair wound healing in patients after surgery. Biologic treatments including anti-TNF-α agents are increasi......INTRODUCTION: Tumour necrosis factor α (TNF-α) plays a role in the immune defence, angiogenesis and collagen synthesis. Inhibition of these pathways may increase the risk of infections and impair wound healing in patients after surgery. Biologic treatments including anti-TNF-α agents...... are increasingly used in the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease. Taking into consideration the biologics' mechanism of action, fears have been expressed that they might increase the rate of post-operative complications. Results from 18 retrospective studies were conflicting, and meta-analyses based...... an increased risk of overall post-operative complications and an increased rate of infectious or anastomosis-related complications in patients receiving anti-TNF-α. CONCLUSION: The use of anti-TNF-α agents in Crohn's disease patients is associated with an increased risk of post-operative complications after...

  18. Increased risk of post-operative complications in patients with Crohn's disease treated with anti-tumour necrosis factor α agents - a systematic review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    El-Hussuna, Alaa; Theede, Klaus; Olaison, Gunnar

    2014-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Tumour necrosis factor α (TNF-α) plays a role in the immune defence, angiogenesis and collagen synthesis. Inhibition of these pathways may increase the risk of infections and impair wound healing in patients after surgery. Biologic treatments including anti-TNF-α agents are increasi......INTRODUCTION: Tumour necrosis factor α (TNF-α) plays a role in the immune defence, angiogenesis and collagen synthesis. Inhibition of these pathways may increase the risk of infections and impair wound healing in patients after surgery. Biologic treatments including anti-TNF-α agents...... are increasingly used in the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease. Taking into consideration the biologics' mechanism of action, fears have been expressed that they might increase the rate of post-operative complications. Results from 18 retrospective studies were conflicting, and meta-analyses based...... an increased risk of overall post-operative complications and an increased rate of infectious or anastomosis-related complications in patients receiving anti-TNF-α. CONCLUSION: The use of anti-TNF-α agents in Crohn's disease patients is associated with an increased risk of post-operative complications after...

  19. PREDICTION OF SURGICAL TREATMENT WITH POUR PERITONITIS QUANTIFYING RISK FACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    І. К. Churpiy

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Explored the possibility of quantitative assessment of risk factors of complications in the treatment of diffuse peritonitis. Highlighted 53 groups of features that are important in predicting the course of diffuse peritonitis. The proposed scheme of defining the risk of clinical course of diffuse peritonitis can quantify the severity of the source of patients and in most cases correctly predict the results of treatment of disease.

  20. Predicting child maltreatment: A meta-analysis of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Put, Claudia E; Assink, Mark; Boekhout van Solinge, Noëlle F

    2017-11-01

    Risk assessment is crucial in preventing child maltreatment since it can identify high-risk cases in need of child protection intervention. Despite widespread use of risk assessment instruments in child welfare, it is unknown how well these instruments predict maltreatment and what instrument characteristics are associated with higher levels of predictive validity. Therefore, a multilevel meta-analysis was conducted to examine the predictive accuracy of (characteristics of) risk assessment instruments. A literature search yielded 30 independent studies (N=87,329) examining the predictive validity of 27 different risk assessment instruments. From these studies, 67 effect sizes could be extracted. Overall, a medium significant effect was found (AUC=0.681), indicating a moderate predictive accuracy. Moderator analyses revealed that onset of maltreatment can be better predicted than recurrence of maltreatment, which is a promising finding for early detection and prevention of child maltreatment. In addition, actuarial instruments were found to outperform clinical instruments. To bring risk and needs assessment in child welfare to a higher level, actuarial instruments should be further developed and strengthened by distinguishing risk assessment from needs assessment and by integrating risk assessment with case management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. PCA-derived factors that may be predictive of postoperative pain in pediatric patients: a possible role for the PCA ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonnell, Conor; Pehora, Carolyne; Crawford, Mark W

    2012-01-01

    No method exists to reliably predict which patients will develop severe postoperative pain. The authors hypothesized that data derived from patient-controlled analgesia (PCA) pumps (specifically the ratio of patient demands to pump deliveries) may predict which patients would develop severe pain after scoliosis repair. Quaternary, university-affiliated, pediatric hospital. Forty American Society of Anesthesiologists I-Il pediatric patients who had undergone elective scoliosis repair and had consented to recruitment to a randomized clinical trial investigating the effects of early morphine administration on remifentanil-induced hyperalgesia. To test the hypothesis of the current study, the authors calculated the PCA ratio of demand to delivery at every 4 hours throughout the first 24 hours after surgery for all the patients recruited to the original study. The authors compared calculated PCA ratios, numeric rating scale pain scores, and cumulative morphine consumption for those patients who developed severe postoperative pain and met the criteria for opioid rotation versus those patients who did not. Seven patients required opioid rotation from PCA morphine to PCA hydromorphone. Eight hours after surgery, the median PCA ratio for those seven patients (2.5[range, 1.8-4.3]) was significantly greater than that for all other recruited patients (1.3 [range, 0-2.7]; p PCA ratios of demand to delivery as early as 8 hours after surgery.

  2. The role of point-of-care assessment of platelet function in predicting postoperative bleeding and transfusion requirements after coronary artery bypass grafting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Pankaj Kumar; Thekkudan, Joyce; Sahajanandan, Raj; Gravenor, Mike; Lakshmanan, Suresh; Fayaz, Khazi Mohammed; Luckraz, Heyman

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE platelet function assessment after cardiac surgery can predict postoperative blood loss, guide transfusion requirements and discriminate the need for surgical re-exploration. We conducted this study to assess the predictive value of point-of-care testing platelet function using the Multiplate® device. Patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting were prospectively recruited ( n = 84). Group A ( n = 42) patients were on anti-platelet therapy until surgery; patients in Group B ( n = 42) stopped anti-platelet treatment at least 5 days preoperatively. Multiplate® and thromboelastography (TEG) tests were performed in the perioperative period. Primary end-point was excessive bleeding (>2.5 ml/kg/h) within first 3 h postoperative. Secondary end-points included transfusion requirements, re-exploration rates, intensive care unit and in-hospital stays. Patients in Group A had excessive bleeding (59% vs. 33%, P = 0.02), higher re-exploration rates (14% vs. 0%, P function testing was the most significant predictor of excessive bleeding (odds ratio [OR]: 2.3, P = 0.08), need for blood (OR: 5.5, P functional assessment with Multiplate® was the strongest predictor for bleeding and transfusion requirements in patients on anti-platelet therapy until the time of surgery.

  3. Postoperative radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burhenne, H.J.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports on the importance of postoperative radiology. Most surgical procedures on the alimentary tract are successful, but postoperative complications remain a common occurrence. The radiologist must be familiar with a large variety of possible surgical complications, because it is this specialty that is most commonly called on to render a definitive diagnosis. The decision for reoperation, for instance, is usually based on results from radiologic imaging techniques. These now include ultrasonography, CT scanning, needle biopsy, and interventional techniques in addition to contrast studies and nuclear medicine investigation

  4. Prediction of postoperative diabetes insipidus using morphological hyperintensity patterns in the pituitary stalk on magnetic resonance imaging after transsphenoidal surgery for sellar tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, Yasuhiko; Kita, Daisuke; Watanabe, Takuya; Fukui, Issei; Sasagawa, Yasuo; Oishi, Masahiro; Tachibana, Osamu; Ueda, Fumiaki; Nakada, Mitsutoshi

    2016-12-01

    absence in the posterior lobe indicated postoperative DI, which was transient if HI was detected in the pituitary stalk. DI duration could be predicted by the length of HI in the pituitary stalk, which corresponded to the degree of ADH transport obstruction.

  5. The predictive value of preoperative perfusion/ventilation scintigraphy, spirometry and x-ray of the lungs on postoperative pulmonary complications. A prospective study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fogh, J.; Wille-Joergensen, P.; Brynjolf, I.; Thorup, J.; Joergensen, T.; Bording, L.; Kjaergaard, J.

    1987-01-01

    Prospectively, 125 patients were examined with 99m Tc-perfusion scintigraphy, 89m Kr- or 127 Xe-ventilation scintigraphy and chest radiogram prior to major surgery. Postoperative therapy-demanding pulmonary complications occurred in 18% of the patients. A statistical association could be demonstrated between all the preoperative tests except ventilation scintigraphy and the frequency of complications. However, the predictive values of each of the tests, or even the combined results, were not significantly different from the frequency of complications among all the patients. It is concluded that the predictive values of perfusion-and ventilation scintigraphy, spirometry and radiogram of the chest are too low to be of any practical use. (author)

  6. Obesity Risk Prediction among Women of Upper Egypt: The impact ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Obesity Risk Prediction among Women of Upper Egypt: The impact of FTO ... with increased obesity risk but there is a lack of association with diabetes. ... (as certain foods or gene therapy) will prevent the percentage of women who is affected ...

  7. Inflammation-based prognostic score, prior to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, predicts postoperative outcome in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Takashi; Teruya, Masanori; Kishiki, Tomokazu; Endo, Daisuke; Takenaka, Yoshiharu; Tanaka, Hozumi; Miki, Kenji; Kobayashi, Kaoru; Morita, Koji

    2008-11-01

    Recent studies have revealed that Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), an inflammation-based prognostic score, is associated with poor outcome in a variety of tumors. However, few studies have investigated whether GPS measured prior to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) is useful for postoperative prognosis of patients with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). GPS was calculated on the basis of admission data as follows: patients with both an elevated C-reactive protein (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminaemia (L) were allocated a GPS score of 2. Patients in whom only 1 of these biochemical abnormalities was present were allocated a GPS score of 1, and patients with a normal C-reactive protein and albumin were allocated a score of 0. All patients underwent radical en-bloc resection 3-4 weeks after nCRT. A total of 48 patients with clinical TNM stage II/III were enrolled. Univariate analyses revealed that there were significant differences in cancer-specific survival in relation to grade of response to nCRT (P = .004), lymph node status (P = .0065), lymphatic invasion (P = .0002), venous invasion (P = .0001), pathological TNM classification (P = .015), and GPS (P GPS classification showed a close relationship with lymphatic invasion, venous invasion, and number of lymph node (P = .0292, .0473, and .0485, respectively). GPS was found to be the only independent predictor of cancer-specific survival (odds ratio, 0.17; 95% confidence interval, 0.06-0.52; P = .0019). GPS, measured prior to nCRT, is an independent novel predictor of postoperative outcome in patients with advanced ESCC.

  8. Postoperative Insulin-Like Growth Factor 1 Levels Reflect the Graft's Function and Predict Survival after Liver Transplantation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele Nicolini

    Full Text Available The reduction of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1 plasma levels is associated with the degree of liver dysfunction and mortality in cirrhotic patients. However, little research is available on the recovery of the IGF-1 level and its prognostic role after liver transplantation (LT.From April 2010 to May 2011, 31 patients were prospectively enrolled (25/6 M/F; mean age±SEM: 55.2±1.4 years, and IGF-1 serum levels were assessed preoperatively and at 15, 30, 90, 180 and 365 days after transplantation. The influence of the donor and recipient characteristics (age, use of extended criteria donor grafts, D-MELD and incidence of early allograft dysfunction on hormonal concentration was analyzed. The prognostic role of IGF-1 level on patient survival and its correlation with routine liver function tests were also investigated.All patients showed low preoperative IGF-1 levels (mean±SEM: 29.5±2.1, and on postoperative day 15, a significant increase in the IGF-1 plasma level was observed (102.7±11.7 ng/ml; p65 years or extended criteria donor grafts. An inverse correlation between IGF-1 and bilirubin serum levels at day 15 (r = -0.3924, p = 0.0320 and 30 (r = -0.3894, p = 0.0368 was found. After multivariate analysis, early (within 15 days IGF-1 normalization [Exp(b = 3.913; p = 0.0484] was the only prognostic factor associated with an increased 3-year survival rate.IGF-1 postoperative levels are correlated with the graft's quality and reflect liver function. Early IGF-1 recovery is associated with a higher 3-year survival rate after LT.

  9. Combined neck dissection and postoperative radiation therapy in the management of the high-risk neck: a matched-pair analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lundahl, Robert E.; Foote, Robert L.; Bonner, James A.; Suman, Vera J.; Lewis, Jean E.; Kasperbauer, Jan L.; McCaffrey, Thomas V.; Olsen, Kerry D.

    1998-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the efficacy of postoperative adjuvant radiation therapy with regard to reducing the rate of recurrence in the neck, cancer-related death, and death from any cause in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck region metastatic to neck nodes. Methods: This was a retrospective review of patients with pathologically confirmed nodal metastases who underwent neck dissection and postoperative adjuvant radiation therapy for squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck region. Time to recurrence in the dissected area of the neck, any recurrence in the neck, cancer-related death, and death from any cause were estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method. A matched-pair analysis was performed utilizing a cohort of patients who underwent neck dissection without postoperative radiation therapy. The patients from the two cohorts were matched according to previously reported high-risk features for cancer recurrence and death. Cox hazards models for the matched pairs were used to evaluate the relative risk of subsequent recurrence in the dissected side of the neck, any neck recurrence, cancer-related death, and overall survival. Materials: The medical records and pathologic slides of 95 consecutive patients with pathologically confirmed nodal metastases from squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck region who underwent neck dissection and postoperative adjuvant radiation therapy between January 1974 and December 1990 were reviewed. Previously published data from 284 patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck region treated with neck dissection alone between January 1970 and December 1980 were used for a matched-pair analysis. Results: The relative risks for recurrence in the dissected side of the neck, any neck recurrence (dissected neck or delayed undissected neck metastasis), cancer-related death, and death from any cause for patients treated with operation alone relative to those treated with

  10. The Role of Risk Aversion in Predicting Individual Behaviours

    OpenAIRE

    Guiso, Luigi; Paiella, Monica

    2004-01-01

    We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay to buy a risky asset. We relate this measure to a set of consumers’ decisions that in theory should vary with attitude towards risk. We find that elicited risk aversion has considerable predictive power for a number of key household decisions such as choice of occupation, portfolio selection, moving decisions and exposure to chronic diseases in ways cons...

  11. The Role of Risk Aversion in Predicting Individual Behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Monica Paiella; Luigi Guiso

    2004-01-01

    We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay to buy a risky asset. We relate this measure to a set of consumers' decisions that in theory should vary with attitude towards risk. We find that elicited risk aversion has considerable predictive power for a number of key household decisions such as choice of occupation, portfolio selection, moving decisions and exposure to chronic diseases in ways cons...

  12. Risk avoidance in sympatric large carnivores: reactive or predictive?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broekhuis, Femke; Cozzi, Gabriele; Valeix, Marion; McNutt, John W; Macdonald, David W

    2013-09-01

    1. Risks of predation or interference competition are major factors shaping the distribution of species. An animal's response to risk can either be reactive, to an immediate risk, or predictive, based on preceding risk or past experiences. The manner in which animals respond to risk is key in understanding avoidance, and hence coexistence, between interacting species. 2. We investigated whether cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus), known to be affected by predation and competition by lions (Panthera leo) and spotted hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta), respond reactively or predictively to the risks posed by these larger carnivores. 3. We used simultaneous spatial data from Global Positioning System (GPS) radiocollars deployed on all known social groups of cheetahs, lions and spotted hyaenas within a 2700 km(2) study area on the periphery of the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana. The response to risk of encountering lions and spotted hyaenas was explored on three levels: short-term or immediate risk, calculated as the distance to the nearest (contemporaneous) lion or spotted hyaena, long-term risk, calculated as the likelihood of encountering lions and spotted hyaenas based on their cumulative distributions over a 6-month period and habitat-associated risk, quantified by the habitat used by each of the three species. 4. We showed that space and habitat use by cheetahs was similar to that of lions and, to a lesser extent, spotted hyaenas. However, cheetahs avoided immediate risks by positioning themselves further from lions and spotted hyaenas than predicted by a random distribution. 5. Our results suggest that cheetah spatial distribution is a hierarchical process, first driven by resource acquisition and thereafter fine-tuned by predator avoidance; thus suggesting a reactive, rather than a predictive, response to risk. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

  13. Predicting Factors for Allogeneic Blood Transfusion and Excessive Postoperative Blood Loss after Single Low-Dosage Intra-Articular Tranexamic Acid Application in Total Knee Replacement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paphon Sa-ngasoongsong

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Recently, intra-articular tranexamic acid (IA-TXA application has become a popular method for perioperative blood loss (PBL reduction in total knee replacement (TKR. Nevertheless, through our knowledge, no previous studies had shown the correlation perioperative factors and the risk of excessive PBL or need of blood transfusion (BT after IA-TXA. Materials and Methods. A retrospective study was conducted in patients underwent 299 primary TKRs, using IA-TXA, during 2-year period (2013-2014. Patient’s characteristic and perioperative data were reviewed and collected. PBL was measured as total hemoglobin loss (THL, estimated total blood loss (ETBL, and drainage volume per kg (DV/kg. Excessive PBL was defined as PBL that exceeded 90th percentile. Results. From multivariate analysis, low preoperative hemoglobin (Hb level and body mass index (BMI were the significant predictors of postoperative BT (p<0.0001 and 0.003, resp.. Excessive THL significant associated with preoperative Hb (p<0.0001. Excessive ETBL significantly associated with preoperative Hb, height, preoperative range-of-motion, and creatinine clearance (p<0.05 all. Low BMI and large prosthesis size were the significant predictors of excessive DV/kg (p=0.0001 and 0.002, resp.. Conclusions. Low preoperative Hb and BMI were the significant risks of postoperative transfusion after TKR with IA-TXA. Moreover, multiple perioperative factors could result in higher PBL.

  14. Postoperative inspiratory muscle training in addition to breathing exercises and early mobilization improves oxygenation in high-risk patients after lung cancer surgery: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocki, Barbara Cristina; Andreasen, Jan Jesper; Langer, Daniel; Souza, Domingos Savio R; Westerdahl, Elisabeth

    2016-05-01

    The aim was to investigate whether 2 weeks of inspiratory muscle training (IMT) could preserve respiratory muscle strength in high-risk patients referred for pulmonary resection on the suspicion of or confirmed lung cancer. Secondarily, we investigated the effect of the intervention on the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications. The study was a single-centre, parallel-group, randomized trial with assessor blinding and intention-to-treat analysis. The intervention group (IG, n = 34) underwent 2 weeks of postoperative IMT twice daily with 2 × 30 breaths on a target intensity of 30% of maximal inspiratory pressure, in addition to standard postoperative physiotherapy. Standard physiotherapy in the control group (CG, n = 34) consisted of breathing exercises, coughing techniques and early mobilization. We measured respiratory muscle strength (maximal inspiratory/expiratory pressure, MIP/MEP), functional performance (6-min walk test), spirometry and peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2), assessed the day before surgery and again 3-5 days and 2 weeks postoperatively. Postoperative pulmonary complications were evaluated 2 weeks after surgery. The mean age was 70 ± 8 years and 57.5% were males. Thoracotomy was performed in 48.5% (n = 33) of cases. No effect of the intervention was found regarding MIP, MEP, lung volumes or functional performance at any time point. The overall incidence of pneumonia was 13% (n = 9), with no significant difference between groups [IG 6% (n = 2), CG 21% (n = 7), P = 0.14]. An improved SpO2 was found in the IG on the third and fourth postoperative days (Day 3: IG 93.8 ± 3.4 vs CG 91.9 ± 4.1%, P = 0.058; Day 4: IG 93.5 ± 3.5 vs CG 91 ± 3.9%, P = 0.02). We found no association between surgical procedure (thoracotomy versus thoracoscopy) and respiratory muscle strength, which was recovered in both groups 2 weeks after surgery. Two weeks of additional postoperative IMT, compared with standard physiotherapy alone, did not preserve

  15. Simple visual review of pre- to post-operative renal ultrasound images predicts pyeloplasty success equally as well as geometric measurements: A blinded comparison with a gold standard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kern, Adam J M; Schlomer, Bruce J; Timberlake, Matthew D; Peters, Craig A; Hammer, Matthew R; Jacobs, Micah A

    2017-08-01

    MAG3 diuretic renal scan remains the gold standard for determination of improvement in renal drainage following pyeloplasty for ureteropelvic junction obstruction. We hypothesized that (i) a change in geometric measurements between pre-operative and post-operative renal ultrasound (RUS) images and (ii) blinded simple visual review of images both would predict pyeloplasty success. To determine if simple visual review and/or novel geometric measurement of renal ultrasounds can detect pyeloplasty failure. This study was a retrospective, blinded comparison with a gold standard. Included were children aged ≤18 years undergoing pyeloplasty at our institution from 2009 to 2015. For each kidney, representative pre-operative and post-operative RUS images were chosen. Our standard for pyeloplasty success was improved drainage curve on MAG3 and lack of additional surgery. Measurements for collecting system circularity, roundness, and renal parenchymal to collecting system area ratio (RPCSR) were obtained by three raters (Figure), who were blinded to the outcome of the pyeloplasty. Changes in geometric measurements were analyzed as a diagnostic test for MAG3-defined pyeloplasty success using ROC curve analysis. In addition, six reviewers blinded to pyeloplasty success reviewed pre-operative and post-operative images visually for improved hydronephrosis and categorized pyeloplasty as success or failure based on simple visual review of RUS. Fifty-three repaired renal units were identified (50 children). There were five pyeloplasty failures, four of which underwent revision or nephrectomy. While all geometric measurements could discriminate pyeloplasty failure and success, the geometric measurements that discriminated best between pyeloplasty failure and success were change in collecting system roundness and change in RPCSR. Consensus opinion among six blinded reviewers using simple visual review had a sensitivity of 94% and PPV of 100% with respect to identifying pyeloplasty

  16. Comparison of Predictive Factors for Postoperative Incontinence of Holmium Laser Enucleation of the Prostate by the Surgeons’ Experience During Learning Curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katsumi Shigemura

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To detect predictive factors for postoperative incontinence following holmium laser enucleation of the prostate (HoLEP according to surgeon experience (beginner or experienced and preoperative clinical data. Methods: Of 224 patients, a total of 203 with available data on incontinence were investigated. The potential predictive factors for post-HoLEP incontinence included clinical factors, such as patient age, and preoperative urodynamic study results, including detrusor overactivity (DO. We also classified the surgeons performing the procedure according to their HoLEP experience: beginner (<21 cases and experienced (≥21 cases. Results: Our statistical data showed DO was a significant predictive factor at the super-short period (the next day of catheter removal: odds ratio [OR], 3.375; P=0.000. Additionally, patient age, surgeon mentorship (inverse correlation, and prostate volume were significant predictive factors at the 1-month interval after HoLEP (OR, 1.072; P=0.004; OR, 0.251; P=0.002; and OR, 1.008; P=0.049, respectively. With regards to surgeon experience, DO and preoperative International Prostate Symptom Score (inverse at the super-short period, and patient age and mentorship (inverse correlation at the 1-month interval after HoLEP (OR, 3.952; P=0.002; OR, 1.084; P=0.015; and OR,1.084; P=0.015; OR, 0.358; P=0.003, respectively were significant predictive factors for beginners, and first desire to void (FDV at 1 month after HoLEP (OR, 1.009; P=0.012 was a significant predictive factor for experienced surgeons in multivariate analysis. Conclusions: Preoperative DO, IPSS, patient age, and surgeon mentorship were significant predictive factors of postoperative patient incontinence for beginner surgeons, while FDV was a significant predictive factors for experienced surgeons. These findings should be taken into account by surgeons performing HoLEP to maximize the patient’s quality of life with regards to urinary continence.

  17. Postoperative spine infections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Domenico Parchi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Postoperative spinal wound infection is a potentially devastating complication after operative spinal procedures. Despite the utilization of perioperative prophylactic antibiotics in recent years and improvements in surgical technique and postoperative care, wound infection continues to compromise patients’ outcome after spinal surgery. In the modern era of pending health care reform with increasing financial constraints, the financial burden of post-operative spinal infections also deserves consideration. The aim of our work is to give to the reader an updated review of the latest achievements in prevention, risk factors, diagnosis, microbiology and treatment of post-operative spinal wound infections. A review of the scientific literature was carried out using electronic medical databases Pubmed, Google Scholar, Web of Science and Scopus for the years 1973-2012 to obtain access to all publications involving the incidence, risk factors, prevention, diagnosis, treatment of postoperative spinal wound infections. We initially identified 119 studies; of these 60 were selected. Despite all the measures intended to reduce the incidence of surgical site infections in spine surgery, these remain a common and potentially dangerous complication.

  18. Risk factors associated with postoperative seizures in patients undergoing cardiac surgery who received tranexamic acid: A case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix R Montes

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Antifibrinolytic agents are used during cardiac surgery to minimize bleeding and reduce exposure to blood products. Several reports suggest that tranexamic acid (TA can induce seizure activity in the postoperative period. To examine factors associated with postoperative seizures in patients undergoing cardiac surgery who received TA. University-affiliated hospital. Case-control study. Patients undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB between January 2008 and December 2009 were identified. During this time, all patients undergoing heart surgery with CPB received TA. Cases were defined as patients who developed seizures that required initiation of anticonvulsive therapy within 48 h of surgery. Exclusion criteria included subjects with preexisting epilepsy and patients in whom the convulsive episode was secondary to a new ischemic lesion on brain imaging. Controls who did not develop seizures were randomly selected from the initial cohort. From an initial cohort of 903 patients, we identified 32 patients with postoperative seizures. Four patients were excluded. Twenty-eight cases and 112 controls were analyzed. Cases were more likely to have a history of renal impairment and higher preoperative creatinine values compared with controls (1.39 ± 1.1 vs. 0.98 ± 0.02 mg/dL, P = 0.02. Significant differences in the intensive care unit, postoperative and total lengths of stay were observed. An association between high preoperative creatinine value and postoperative seizure was identified. TA may be associated with the development of postoperative seizures in patients with renal dysfunction. Doses of TA should be reduced or even avoided in this population.

  19. Predicting Risk-Mitigating Behaviors From Indecisiveness and Trait Anxiety

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mcneill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Skinner, Timothy C.

    2016-01-01

    Past research suggests that indecisiveness and trait anxiety may both decrease the likelihood of performing risk-mitigating preparatory behaviors (e.g., preparing for natural hazards) and suggests two cognitive processes (perceived control and worrying) as potential mediators. However, no single...... control over wildfire-related outcomes. Trait anxiety did not uniquely predict preparedness or perceived control, but it did uniquely predict worry, with higher trait anxiety predicting more worrying. Also, worry trended toward uniquely predicting preparedness, albeit in an unpredicted positive direction...

  20. Cardiovascular risk prediction tools for populations in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barzi, F; Patel, A; Gu, D; Sritara, P; Lam, T H; Rodgers, A; Woodward, M

    2007-02-01

    Cardiovascular risk equations are traditionally derived from the Framingham Study. The accuracy of this approach in Asian populations, where resources for risk factor measurement may be limited, is unclear. To compare "low-information" equations (derived using only age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and smoking status) derived from the Framingham Study with those derived from the Asian cohorts, on the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction. Separate equations to predict the 8-year risk of a cardiovascular event were derived from Asian and Framingham cohorts. The performance of these equations, and a subsequently "recalibrated" Framingham equation, were evaluated among participants from independent Chinese cohorts. Six cohort studies from Japan, Korea and Singapore (Asian cohorts); six cohort studies from China; the Framingham Study from the US. 172,077 participants from the Asian cohorts; 25,682 participants from Chinese cohorts and 6053 participants from the Framingham Study. In the Chinese cohorts, 542 cardiovascular events occurred during 8 years of follow-up. Both the Asian cohorts and the Framingham equations discriminated cardiovascular risk well in the Chinese cohorts; the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve was at least 0.75 for men and women. However, the Framingham risk equation systematically overestimated risk in the Chinese cohorts by an average of 276% among men and 102% among women. The corresponding average overestimation using the Asian cohorts equation was 11% and 10%, respectively. Recalibrating the Framingham risk equation using cardiovascular disease incidence from the non-Chinese Asian cohorts led to an overestimation of risk by an average of 4% in women and underestimation of risk by an average of 2% in men. A low-information Framingham cardiovascular risk prediction tool, which, when recalibrated with contemporary data, is likely to estimate future cardiovascular risk with similar accuracy in Asian

  1. Prognostic value of strain and strain rate in the prediction of postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting: a systematic literature review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leila Bigdelu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF is a common dysrhythmia postoperatively after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG. Myocardial strain and strain-rate imaging is used for the assessment of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF as a new echocardiographic method. Methods: PubMed and Scopus were searched thoroughly using the following search terms: (strain and strain rate AND (atrial fibrillation OR AF on March 2015 to find English articles in which the strain and strain-rate echocardiographic imaging had been used for the evaluation of AF in patients undergone CABG. Full text of the relevant papers was fully reviewed for data extraction.Result: Of overall 6 articles found in PubMed, 10 records found in Scopus and 4 articles found through reference list search, only 6 papers fully met the inclusion criteria for further assessment and data extraction. The results of strain and strain-rate assessment showed that in total of 542 patients undergoing CABG, POAF occurred in 106 patients. Studies showed that the reduction of left atrial (LA strain rate is correlated with AF. Consistently, the results of present review showed that LA strain and strain-rate in patients who developed AF postoperatively after CABG are significantly reduced, suggesting that strain and strain-rate could be a predictor of POAF.Conclusion: Based on the obtained results, strain and strain-rate is a suitable and accurate echocardiographic technique in the assessment of left atrial function , and it might be helpful to detect the patients who are at high risk of POAF.

  2. Exclusive image guided IMRT vs. radical prostatectomy followed by postoperative IMRT for localized prostate cancer: a matched-pair analysis based on risk-groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azelie, Caroline; Créhange, Gilles; Gauthier, Mélanie; Mirjolet, Céline; Cormier, Luc; Martin, Etienne; Peignaux-Casasnovas, Karine; Truc, Gilles; Chamois, Jérôme; Maingon, Philippe

    2012-01-01

    To investigate whether patients treated for a localized prostate cancer (PCa) require a radical prostatectomy followed by postoperative radiotherapy or exclusive radiotherapy, in the modern era of image guided IMRT. 178 patients with PCa were referred for daily exclusive image guided IMRT (IG-IMRT) using an on-line 3D ultra-sound based system and 69 patients were referred for postoperative IMRT without image guidance after radical prostatectomy (RP + IMRT). Patients were matched in a 1:1 ratio according to their baseline risk group before any treatment. Late toxicity was scored using the CTV v3.0 scale. Biochemical failure was defined as a postoperative PSA ≤ 0.1 ng/mL followed by 1 consecutive rising PSA for the postoperative group of patients and by the Phoenix definition (nadir + 2 ng/mL) for the group of patients treated with exclusive radiotherapy. A total of 98 patients were matched (49:49). From the start of any treatment, the median follow-up was 56.6 months (CI 95% = [49.6-61.2], range [18.2-115.1]). No patient had late gastrointestinal grade ≥ 2 toxicity in the IG-IMRT group vs. 4% in the RP + IMRT group. Forty two percent of the patients in both groups had late grade ≥ 2 genitourinary toxicity. The 5-year FFF rates in the IG-IMRT group and in the RP + IMRT groups were 93.1% [80.0-97.8] and 76.5% [58.3-87.5], respectively (p = 0.031). Patients with a localized PCa treated with IG-IMRT had better oncological outcome than patients treated with RP + IMRT. Further improvements in postoperative IMRT using image guidance and dose escalation are urgently needed

  3. Fall Risk Score at the Time of Discharge Predicts Readmission Following Total Joint Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravi, Bheeshma; Nan, Zhang; Schwartz, Adam J; Clarke, Henry D

    2017-07-01

    Readmission among Medicare recipients is a leading driver of healthcare expenditure. To date, most predictive tools are too coarse for direct clinical application. Our objective in this study is to determine if a pre-existing tool to identify patients at increased risk for inpatient falls, the Hendrich Fall Risk Score, could be used to accurately identify Medicare patients at increased risk for readmission following arthroplasty, regardless of whether the readmission was due to a fall. This study is a retrospective cohort study. We identified 2437 Medicare patients who underwent a primary elective total joint arthroplasty (TJA) of the hip or knee for osteoarthritis between 2011 and 2014. The Hendrich Fall Risk score was recorded for each patient preoperatively and postoperatively. Our main outcome measure was hospital readmission within 30 days of discharge. Of 2437 eligible TJA recipients, there were 226 (9.3%) patients who had a score ≥6. These patients were more likely to have an unplanned readmission (unadjusted odds ratio 2.84, 95% confidence interval 1.70-4.76, P 3 days (49.6% vs 36.6%, P = .0001), and were less likely to be sent home after discharge (20.8% vs 35.8%, P fall risk score after TJA is strongly associated with unplanned readmission. Application of this tool will allow hospitals to identify these patients and plan their discharge. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Can pre- and postoperative magnetic resonance imaging predict recurrence-free survival after whole-gland high-intensity focused ablation for prostate cancer?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosset, Remy; Bratan, Flavie [Hopital Edouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Urinary and Vascular Radiology, Lyon (France); Crouzet, Sebastien [Hopital Edouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Urology, Lyon (France); Universite de Lyon, Lyon (France); Faculte de Medecine Lyon Est, Universite Lyon 1, Lyon (France); Inserm, U1032, LabTau, Lyon (France); Tonoli-Catez, Helene [Hopital Edouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Urology, Lyon (France); Mege-Lechevallier, Florence [Hopital Edouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Pathology, Lyon (France); Gelet, Albert [Hopital Edouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Urology, Lyon (France); Inserm, U1032, LabTau, Lyon (France); Rouviere, Olivier [Hopital Edouard Herriot, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Department of Urinary and Vascular Radiology, Lyon (France); Universite de Lyon, Lyon (France); Faculte de Medecine Lyon Est, Universite Lyon 1, Lyon (France); Inserm, U1032, LabTau, Lyon (France)

    2017-04-15

    Our aim was to assess whether magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) after prostate cancer high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) ablation. We retrospectively selected 81 patients who underwent (i) whole-gland HIFU ablation between 2007 and 2011 as first-line therapy or salvage treatment after radiotherapy or brachytherapy, and (ii) pre- and postoperative MRI. On preoperative imaging, two senior (R1, R2) and one junior (R3) readers assessed the number of sectors invaded by the lesion with the highest Likert score (dominant lesion) using a 27-sector diagram. On postoperative imaging, readers assessed destruction of the dominant lesion using a three-level score. Multivariate analysis included the number of sectors invaded by the dominant lesion, its Likert and destruction scores, the pre-HIFU prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, Gleason score, and the clinical setting (primary/salvage). The most significant predictor was the number of prostate sectors invaded by the dominant lesion for R2 and R3 (p≤0.001) and the destruction score of the dominant lesion for R1 (p = 0.011). The pre-HIFU PSA level was an independent predictor for R2 (p = 0.014), but with only marginal significance for R1 (p = 0.059) and R3 (p = 0.053). The dominant lesion's size and destruction assessed by MRI provide independent prognostic information compared with usual predictors. (orig.)

  5. Updating risk prediction tools: a case study in prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ankerst, Donna P; Koniarski, Tim; Liang, Yuanyuan; Leach, Robin J; Feng, Ziding; Sanda, Martin G; Partin, Alan W; Chan, Daniel W; Kagan, Jacob; Sokoll, Lori; Wei, John T; Thompson, Ian M

    2012-01-01

    Online risk prediction tools for common cancers are now easily accessible and widely used by patients and doctors for informed decision-making concerning screening and diagnosis. A practical problem is as cancer research moves forward and new biomarkers and risk factors are discovered, there is a need to update the risk algorithms to include them. Typically, the new markers and risk factors cannot be retrospectively measured on the same study participants used to develop the original prediction tool, necessitating the merging of a separate study of different participants, which may be much smaller in sample size and of a different design. Validation of the updated tool on a third independent data set is warranted before the updated tool can go online. This article reports on the application of Bayes rule for updating risk prediction tools to include a set of biomarkers measured in an external study to the original study used to develop the risk prediction tool. The procedure is illustrated in the context of updating the online Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator to incorporate the new markers %freePSA and [-2]proPSA measured on an external case-control study performed in Texas, U.S.. Recent state-of-the art methods in validation of risk prediction tools and evaluation of the improvement of updated to original tools are implemented using an external validation set provided by the U.S. Early Detection Research Network. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  6. Enhanced clinical pharmacy service targeting tools: risk-predictive algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Hajji, Feras W D; Scullin, Claire; Scott, Michael G; McElnay, James C

    2015-04-01

    This study aimed to determine the value of using a mix of clinical pharmacy data and routine hospital admission spell data in the development of predictive algorithms. Exploration of risk factors in hospitalized patients, together with the targeting strategies devised, will enable the prioritization of clinical pharmacy services to optimize patient outcomes. Predictive algorithms were developed using a number of detailed steps using a 75% sample of integrated medicines management (IMM) patients, and validated using the remaining 25%. IMM patients receive targeted clinical pharmacy input throughout their hospital stay. The algorithms were applied to the validation sample, and predicted risk probability was generated for each patient from the coefficients. Risk threshold for the algorithms were determined by identifying the cut-off points of risk scores at which the algorithm would have the highest discriminative performance. Clinical pharmacy staffing levels were obtained from the pharmacy department staffing database. Numbers of previous emergency admissions and admission medicines together with age-adjusted co-morbidity and diuretic receipt formed a 12-month post-discharge and/or readmission risk algorithm. Age-adjusted co-morbidity proved to be the best index to predict mortality. Increased numbers of clinical pharmacy staff at ward level was correlated with a reduction in risk-adjusted mortality index (RAMI). Algorithms created were valid in predicting risk of in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and risk of hospital readmission 3, 6 and 12 months post-discharge. The provision of ward-based clinical pharmacy services is a key component to reducing RAMI and enabling the full benefits of pharmacy input to patient care to be realized. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Combination of c-reactive protein and squamous cell carcinoma antigen in predicting postoperative prognosis for patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Ji-Feng; Chen, Sheng; Yang, Xun

    2017-09-08

    We initially proposed a useful and novel prognostic model, named CCS [Combination of c-reactive protein (CRP) and squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC)], for predicting the postoperative survival in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Two hundred and fifty-two patients with resectable ESCC were included in this retrospective study. A logistic regression was performed and yielded a logistic equation. The CCS was calculated by the combined CRP and SCC. The optimal cut-off value for CCS was evaluated by X-tile program. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to evaluate the predictive factors. In addition, a novel nomogram model was also performed to predict the prognosis for patients with ESCC. In the current study, CCS was calculated as CRP+6.33 SCC according to the logistic equation. The optimal cut-off value was 15.8 for CCS according to the X-tile program. Kaplan-Meier analyses demonstrated that high CCS group had a significantly poor 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) than low CCS group (10.3% vs. 47.3%, P <0.001). According to multivariate analyses, CCS ( P =0.004), but not CRP ( P =0.466) or SCC ( P =0.926), was an independent prognostic factor. A nomogram could be more accuracy for CSS (Harrell's c-index: 0.70). The CCS is a usefull and independent predictive factor in patients with ESCC.

  8. The Economic Value of Predicting Bond Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarno, Lucio; Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian

    the expectations hypothesis (EH) out-ofsample: the forecasts do not add economic value compared to using the average historical excess return as an EH-consistent estimate of constant risk premia. We show that in general statistical signicance does not necessarily translate into economic signicance because EH...... deviations mainly matter at short horizons and standard predictability metrics are not compatible with common measures of economic value. Overall, the EH remains the benchmark for investment decisions and should be considered an economic prior in models of bond risk premia.......This paper studies whether the evident statistical predictability of bond risk premia translates into economic gains for bond investors. We show that ane term structure models (ATSMs) estimated by jointly tting yields and bond excess returns capture this predictive information otherwise hidden...

  9. [Postoperative cognitive deficits].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalezić, Nevena; Dimitrijević, Ivan; Leposavić, Ljubica; Kocica, Mladen; Bumbasirević, Vesna; Vucetić, Cedomir; Paunović, Ivan; Slavković, Nemanja; Filimonović, Jelena

    2006-01-01

    Cognitive dysfunctions are relatively common in postoperative and critically ill patients. This complication not only compromises recovery after surgery, but, if persistent, it minimizes and compromises surgery itself. Risk factors of postoperative cognitive disorders can be divided into age and comorbidity dependent, and those related to anesthesia and surgery. Cardiovascular, orthopedic and urologic surgery carries high risk of postoperative cognitive dysfunction. It can also occur in other types of surgical treatment, especially in elderly. Among risk factors of cognitive disorders, associated with comorbidity, underlying psychiatric and neurological disorders, substance abuse and conditions with elevation of intracranial pressure are in the first place in postoperative patients. Preoperative and perioperative predisposing conditions for cognitive dysfunction and their incidence were described in our paper. These are: geriatric patients, patients with substance abuse, preexisting psychiatric or cognitive disorders, neurologic disease with high intracranial pressure, cerebrovascular insufficiency, epilepsia, preeclampsia, acute intermittent porphyria, operation type, brain hypoxia, changes in blood glucose level, electrolyte imbalance, anesthetic agents, adjuvant medication and intraoperative awareness. For each of these factors, evaluation, prevention and treatment strategies were suggested, with special regard on anesthetic technique.

  10. Predicting disease risk using bootstrap ranking and classification algorithms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ohad Manor

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS are widely used to search for genetic loci that underlie human disease. Another goal is to predict disease risk for different individuals given their genetic sequence. Such predictions could either be used as a "black box" in order to promote changes in life-style and screening for early diagnosis, or as a model that can be studied to better understand the mechanism of the disease. Current methods for risk prediction typically rank single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs by the p-value of their association with the disease, and use the top-associated SNPs as input to a classification algorithm. However, the predictive power of such methods is relatively poor. To improve the predictive power, we devised BootRank, which uses bootstrapping in order to obtain a robust prioritization of SNPs for use in predictive models. We show that BootRank improves the ability to predict disease risk of unseen individuals in the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC data and results in a more robust set of SNPs and a larger number of enriched pathways being associated with the different diseases. Finally, we show that combining BootRank with seven different classification algorithms improves performance compared to previous studies that used the WTCCC data. Notably, diseases for which BootRank results in the largest improvements were recently shown to have more heritability than previously thought, likely due to contributions from variants with low minimum allele frequency (MAF, suggesting that BootRank can be beneficial in cases where SNPs affecting the disease are poorly tagged or have low MAF. Overall, our results show that improving disease risk prediction from genotypic information may be a tangible goal, with potential implications for personalized disease screening and treatment.

  11. Postoperative spinal column; Postoperative Wirbelsaeule

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaefer, W. [Westpfalzklinikum GmbH, Standort II, Abteilung fuer Wirbelsaeulenchirurgie, Kusel (Germany); Heumueller, I. [Westpfalzklinikum GmbH, Standort II, Institut fuer Radiologie II, Kusel (Germany); Harsch, N.; Kraus, C.; Reith, W. [Universitaetsklinikum des Saarlandes, Klinik fuer Diagnostische und Interventionelle Neuroradiologie, Homburg/Saar (Germany)

    2016-08-15

    As a rule, postoperative imaging is carried out after spinal interventions to document the exact position of the implant material. Imaging is absolutely necessary when new clinical symptoms occur postoperatively. In this case a rebleeding or an incorrect implant position abutting a root or the spinal cord must be proven. In addition to these immediately occurring postoperative clinical symptoms, there are a number of complications that can occur several days, weeks or even months later. These include the failed back surgery syndrome, implant loosening or breakage of the material and relapse of a disc herniation and spondylodiscitis. In addition to knowledge of the original clinical symptoms, it is also important to know the operation details, such as the access route and the material used. In almost all postoperative cases, imaging with contrast medium administration and corresponding correction of artefacts by the implant material, such as the dual energy technique, correction algorithms and the use of special magnetic resonance (MR) sequences are necessary. In order to correctly assess the postoperative imaging, knowledge of the surgical procedure and the previous clinical symptoms are mandatory besides special computed tomography (CT) techniques and MR sequences. (orig.) [German] In der Regel erfolgt bei spinalen Eingriffen eine postoperative Bildgebung, um die exakte Lage des Implantatmaterials zu dokumentieren. Unbedingt notwendig ist die Bildgebung, wenn postoperativ neue klinische Symptome aufgetreten sind. Hier muessen eine Nachblutung bzw. inkorrekte, eine Wurzel oder das Myelon tangierende Implantatlage nachgewiesen werden. Neben diesen direkt postoperativ auftretenden klinischen Symptomen gibt es eine Reihe von Komplikationen, die erst nach mehreren Tagen, Wochen oder sogar nach Monaten auftreten koennen. Hierzu zaehlen das Failed-back-surgery-Syndrom, die Implantatlockerung oder -bruch, aber auch ein Rezidivvorfall und die Spondylodiszitis. Neben der

  12. Investigation on Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Using Physiological Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wan-Hua Lin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the leading cause of death worldwide. Early prediction of CVD is urgently important for timely prevention and treatment. Incorporation or modification of new risk factors that have an additional independent prognostic value of existing prediction models is widely used for improving the performance of the prediction models. This paper is to investigate the physiological parameters that are used as risk factors for the prediction of cardiovascular events, as well as summarizing the current status on the medical devices for physiological tests and discuss the potential implications for promoting CVD prevention and treatment in the future. The results show that measures extracted from blood pressure, electrocardiogram, arterial stiffness, ankle-brachial blood pressure index (ABI, and blood glucose carry valuable information for the prediction of both long-term and near-term cardiovascular risk. However, the predictive values should be further validated by more comprehensive measures. Meanwhile, advancing unobtrusive technologies and wireless communication technologies allow on-site detection of the physiological information remotely in an out-of-hospital setting in real-time. In addition with computer modeling technologies and information fusion. It may allow for personalized, quantitative, and real-time assessment of sudden CVD events.

  13. Immunohistochemical expression profiles of mucin antigens in salivary gland mucoepidermoid carcinoma: MUC4- and MUC6-negative expression predicts a shortened survival in the early postoperative phase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honjo, Kie; Hiraki, Tsubasa; Higashi, Michiyo; Noguchi, Hirotsugu; Nomoto, Mitsuharu; Yoshimura, Takuya; Batra, Surinder K; Yonezawa, Suguru; Semba, Ichiro; Nakamura, Norifumi; Tanimoto, Akihide; Yamada, Sohsuke

    2018-02-01

    In mucoepidermoid carcinoma (MEC), the most common salivary gland carcinoma, there is a lack of novel prognostic markers, but post-operative early recurrence strongly affects the clinical course and a poor outcome. It is critical to predict which MEC patients are prone to develop recurrence/metastases. Mucins play pivotal roles in influencing cancer biology, thus affecting cell differentiation, adhesion, carcinoma invasion, aggressiveness and/or metastatic potential. Our aim is to elucidate the significance of expression profiles for mucins, particularly MUC4 and MUC6, and their correlations with various clinicopathological features and recurrence in salivary gland MECs. We performed immunohistochemical analyses on patients with surgically resected primary MEC using antibodies against mucin core proteins MUC4/8G7 and MUC6/CLH5 in 73 paraffin-embedded samples. Recurrence was noted in 15 of 73 (20.5%) patients. MUC4 or MUC6 expression was considered to be negative when <30% or 0% of the MEC cells showed positive staining, respectively. MUC4- and/or MUC6-negative expression respectively and variably showed a significant relationship to pathological tumor high-grade, the presence of lymphovascular invasion, lymph node metastasis and/or tumor-related death. In addition, MUC4 showed significantly negative co-expression with MUC6. Kaplan-Meier analyses revealed that not only single MUC4/6-negative expression but also the combination of both predicted significantly shorter disease-free and disease-specific survivals in MECs, especially within the first two years postoperatively. Therefore, each mucin plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of MEC progression. The detection of MUC4 and/or MUC6 might be a powerful parameter in the clinical management of MECs in the early postsurgical phase.

  14. Machine learning application in online lending risk prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Yu, Xiaojiao

    2017-01-01

    Online leading has disrupted the traditional consumer banking sector with more effective loan processing. Risk prediction and monitoring is critical for the success of the business model. Traditional credit score models fall short in applying big data technology in building risk model. In this manuscript, data with various format and size were collected from public website, third-parties and assembled with client's loan application information data. Ensemble machine learning models, random fo...

  15. Predictive risk factors for moderate to severe hyperbilirubinemia

    OpenAIRE

    Gláucia Macedo de Lima; Maria Amélia Sayeg Campos Porto; Arnaldo Prata Barbosa; Antonio José Ledo Alves da Cunha

    2007-01-01

    Objective: to describe predictive factors for severity of neonataljaundice in newborn infants treated at the University Neonatal Clinic,highlighting maternal, obstetric and neonatal factors. Methods: Acohort retrospective study by means of review of medical charts todefine risk factors associated with moderate and severe jaundice.The cohort consisted of newborns diagnosed with indirect neonatalhyperbilirubinemia and submitted to phototherapy. Risk was classifiedas maternal, prenatal, obstetri...

  16. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  17. Incidence, risk factors, and phenomenological characteristics of postoperative delirium in patients receiving intravenous patient-controlled analgesia: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin YT

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Yao Tsung Lin,1 Kuo Mao Lan,1 Li-Kai Wang,1 Chin-Chen Chu,1 Su-Zhen Wu,1 Chia-Yu Chang,2 Jen-Yin Chen1,3 1Department of Anesthesiology, 2Department of Neurology, Chi Mei Medical Center, 3Department of the Senior Citizen Service Management, Chia Nan University of Pharmacy and Science, Tainan, Taiwan Background: Intravenous patient-controlled analgesia (IVPCA is a common method of relieving pain which is a risk factor of postoperative delirium (POD. However, research concerning POD in IVPCA patients is limited. Objective: We aimed to determine the incidence, risk factors, and phenomenological characteristics of POD in patients receiving IVPCA. Methods: A prospective, cohort study was conducted in post-general anesthesia IVPCA patients aged ≥60 years. POD was measured by the Nursing Delirium Screening Scale (NuDESC; 0–10. Delirium, pain severity at rest and/or on movement, and side effects of IVPCA during 3 postoperative days were examined twice-daily by the acute pain service team. Pain severity is measured by an 11-point verbal numerical rating scale (11-point VNRS (0–10. An 11-point VNRS >3 was considered inadequate pain relief. If POD (detected by NuDESC ≥1 is suspected, consulting a neurologist or a psychiatrist to confirm suspected POD is required. Results: In total, 1,608 patients were included. The incidence rate of POD was 2.2%. Age ≥70 years and American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status >III were the risk factors of POD in IVPCA patients. Approximately three-quarters of all POD cases occurred within the first 2 postoperative days. For pain at rest, patients with inadequate pain relief had significantly greater rates of POD than patients with adequate pain relief (day 1, 8.4% vs 1.5%, P<0.001; day 2, 9.6% vs 2.0%, P=0.028; day 3, 4.1% vs 2.1%, P=0.412. However, the incidence of POD was not associated with movement-evoked pain relief. Most (79.9% POD cases in IVPCA patients showed either one or two symptoms. The

  18. Prediction of Postoperative Clinical Recovery of Drop Foot Attributable to Lumbar Degenerative Diseases, via a Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takenaka, Shota; Aono, Hiroyuki

    2017-03-01

    Drop foot resulting from degenerative lumbar diseases can impair activities of daily living. Therefore, predictors of recovery of this symptom have been investigated using univariate or/and multivariate analyses. However, the conclusions have been somewhat controversial. Bayesian network models, which are graphic and intuitive to the clinician, may facilitate understanding of the prognosis of drop foot resulting from degenerative lumbar diseases. (1) To show a layered correlation among predictors of recovery from drop foot resulting from degenerative lumbar diseases; and (2) to develop support tools for clinical decisions to treat drop foot resulting from lumbar degenerative diseases. Between 1993 and 2013, we treated 141 patients with decompressive lumbar spine surgery who presented with drop foot attributable to degenerative diseases. Of those, 102 (72%) were included in this retrospective study because they had drop foot of recent development and had no diseases develop that affect evaluation of drop foot after surgery. Specifically, 28 (20%) patients could not be analyzed because their records were not available at a minimum of 2 years followup after surgery and 11 (8%) were lost owing to postoperative conditions that affect the muscle strength evaluation. Eight candidate variables were sex, age, herniated soft disc, duration of the neurologic injury (duration), preoperative tibialis anterior muscle strength (pretibialis anterior), leg pain, cauda equina syndrome, and number of involved levels. Manual muscle testing was used to assess the tibialis anterior muscle strength. Drop foot was defined as a tibialis anterior muscle strength score of less than 3 of 5 (5 = movement against gravity and full resistance, 4 = movement against gravity and moderate resistance, 3 = movement against gravity through full ROM, 3- = movement against gravity through partial ROM, 2 = movement with gravity eliminated through full ROM, 1 = slight contraction but no movement, and 0 = no

  19. THE ROLE OF RISK AVERSION IN PREDICTING INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR

    OpenAIRE

    Luigi Guiso; Monica Paiella

    2005-01-01

    We use household survey data to construct a direct measure of absolute risk aversion based on the maximum price a consumer is willing to pay to buy a risky asset. We relate this measure to a set of consumers� decisions that in theory should vary with attitude towards risk. We find that elicited risk aversion has considerable predictive power for a number of key household decisions such as choice of occupation, portfolio selection, moving decisions and exposure to chronic diseases in ways co...

  20. Dynamic Bayesian modeling for risk prediction in credit operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borchani, Hanen; Martinez, Ana Maria; Masegosa, Andres

    2015-01-01

    Our goal is to do risk prediction in credit operations, and as data is collected continuously and reported on a monthly basis, this gives rise to a streaming data classification problem. Our analysis reveals some practical problems that have not previously been thoroughly analyzed in the context...

  1. Prediction of postpartum blood transfusion – risk factors and recurrence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wikkelsø, Anne J; Hjortøe, Sofie; Gerds, Thomas A

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The aim was to find clinically useful risk factors for postpartum transfusion and to assess the joint predictive value in a population of women with a first and second delivery. METHODS: All Danish women with a first and second delivery from January 2001 to September 2009 who gave birt...

  2. Predicting the risk of mineral deficiencies in grazing animals

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    lambs to mineral supplements can be used to predict risks of deficiency will be demonstrated. In both cases .... between body size and appetite, the onset of lactation or the feeding of ... possible importance of this in the aetiology of milk fever.

  3. Mountain Risks: From Prediction to Management and Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Petley

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Reviewed: Mountain Risks: From Prediction to Management and Governance. Edited by Theo Van Asch, Jordi Corominas, Stefan Greiving, Jean-Philippe Malet, and Sterlacchini Simone. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer, 2014. xi + 413 pp. US$ 129.00, € 90.00, € 104.00. Also available as an e-book. ISBN 978-94-007-6768-3.

  4. Predicting disease risks from highly imbalanced data using random forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chakraborty Sounak

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We present a method utilizing Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP dataset for predicting disease risk of individuals based on their medical diagnosis history. The presented methodology may be incorporated in a variety of applications such as risk management, tailored health communication and decision support systems in healthcare. Methods We employed the National Inpatient Sample (NIS data, which is publicly available through Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP, to train random forest classifiers for disease prediction. Since the HCUP data is highly imbalanced, we employed an ensemble learning approach based on repeated random sub-sampling. This technique divides the training data into multiple sub-samples, while ensuring that each sub-sample is fully balanced. We compared the performance of support vector machine (SVM, bagging, boosting and RF to predict the risk of eight chronic diseases. Results We predicted eight disease categories. Overall, the RF ensemble learning method outperformed SVM, bagging and boosting in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve (AUC. In addition, RF has the advantage of computing the importance of each variable in the classification process. Conclusions In combining repeated random sub-sampling with RF, we were able to overcome the class imbalance problem and achieve promising results. Using the national HCUP data set, we predicted eight disease categories with an average AUC of 88.79%.

  5. The role of risk propensity in predicting self-employment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieß, Christiane; Biemann, Torsten

    2014-09-01

    This study aims to untangle the role of risk propensity as a predictor of self-employment entry and self-employment survival. More specifically, it examines whether the potentially positive effect of risk propensity on the decision to become self-employed turns curvilinear when it comes to the survival of the business. Building on a longitudinal sample of 4,973 individuals from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we used event history analyses to evaluate the influence of risk propensity on self-employment over a 7-year time period. Results indicated that whereas high levels of risk propensity positively predicted the decision to become self-employed, the relationship between risk propensity and self-employment survival followed an inverted U-shaped curve. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  6. Pre-operative Predictive Factors of Post-operative Pain in Patients With Hip or Knee Arthroplasty: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández, Clara; Díaz-Heredia, Jorge; Berraquero, María Luisa; Crespo, Pablo; Loza, Estíbaliz; Ruiz Ibán, Miguel Ángel

    2015-01-01

    To analyze pre-surgical predictive factors of post-surgical pain in patients undergoing hip or knee arthoplasty. A systematic literature review was performed. We defined a sensitive strategy on Medline, Embase and Cochrane Library up to May 2013. The inclusion criteria were: patients undertaking knee and/or hip arthroplasty, adults with moderate or severe pain (≥4 on a Visual Analog Scale) in whom predictive factors of post-surgical pain were evaluated before surgery. Systematic reviews, meta-analyses, controlled trials and observational studies were selected. We excluded animals and basic science articles, reviews of prosthesis, prosthesis due to fractures, patients with rheumatic diseases or studies with mixed population in which disaggregated data was not possible to obtain. A total 37 articles of moderate quality were selected. The articles included representative patients undergoing a knee or hip arthroplasty in our country; most of them were aged 60 years or above, with osteoarthritis, and with a high rate of obesity and comorbidities. We found great variability regarding the type of studies and predictive factors. There was a strong association between post-surgical pain and the following pre-surgical factors: female gender, low socio-economic status, higher pain, comorbidities, low back pain, poor functional status, and psychological factors (depression, anxiety or catastrophic pain). There are pre-surgical factors that might influence post-surgical pain in patients undergoing a knee or hip arthroplasty. Therefore, they should be taken into account when considering an arthroplasty. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Reumatología y Colegio Mexicano de Reumatología. All rights reserved.

  7. Postoperative Morbidity and Mortality of Perforated Peptic Ulcer: Retrospective Cohort Study of Risk Factors among Black Africans in Côte d’Ivoire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soro Kountele Gona

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Surgical treatment of perforated peptic ulcer (PPU is a challenge for surgeons in Africa. Aim. To determine risk factors of postoperative complications or mortality among black Ivoirian patients with PPU. Methods. All 161 patients (median age = 34 years, 90.7 male operated on for PPU in the visceral and general surgery unit were enrolled in a retrospective cohort study. Variables were studied with Kaplan Meier and Cox proportional hazard models. Results. Among 161 patients operated on for PPU, 36 (27.5% experienced complications and 31 (19.3% died. Follow-up results were the incidence of complications and mortality of 6.4 (95% CI: 4.9–8.0 per 100 person-days and 3.0 (95% CI: 1.9–4.0 per 100 person-days for incidence of mortality. In multivariate analysis, risk factors of postoperative complications or mortality were comorbidities (HR = 2.1, P=0.03, tachycardia (pulse rate > 100/minutes (HR = 2.4, P=0.02, purulent intra-abdominal fluid collection (HR = 2.1, P=0.04, hyponatremia (median value ≤ 134 mEq/L (HR = 2.3, P=0.01, delayed time of hospital admission > 72 hours (HR = 2.6, P<0.0001, and delayed time of surgical intervention between 24 and 48 hours (HR = 3.8, P<0.0001. Conclusion. The delayed hospital admission or surgical intervention and hyponatremia may be considered as additional risk of postoperative complications or mortality in Black African patients with PPU.

  8. Predicting risk of violence through a self-appraisal questionnaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Manuel Andreu-Rodríguez

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ is a self-report that predicts the risk of violence and recidivism and provides relevant information about treatment needs for incarcerated populations. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the concurrent and predictive validity of this self-report in Spanish offenders. The SAQ was administered to 276 offenders recruited from several prisons in Madrid (Spain. SAQ total scores presented high levels of internal consistency (alpha = .92. Correlations of the instrument with violence risk instruments were statistically significant and showed a moderate magnitude, indicating a reasonable degree of concurrent validity. The ROC analysis carried out on the SAQ total score revealed an AUC of .80, showing acceptable accuracy discriminating between violent and nonviolent recidivist groups. It is concluded that the SAQ total score is a reliable and valid measure to estimate violence and recidivism risk in Spanish offenders.

  9. Editorial Commentary: Big Data Suggest That Because of a Significant Increased Risk of Postoperative Infection, Steroid Injection Is Not Recommended After Ankle Arthroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Jefferson C

    2016-02-01

    A recent study addressing infection rate after intra-articular steroid injection during ankle arthroscopy gives pause to this practice, with an odds ratio of 2.2 in the entire population that was injected with a steroid simultaneously with ankle arthroscopy compared with patients who did not receive an ankle injection. Big data, used in the study upon which the Editor comments here, suggest that because of a significant increased risk of postoperative infection, steroid injection is not recommended after ankle arthroscopy. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk predictive modelling for diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kengne, Andre Pascal; Masconi, Katya; Mbanya, Vivian Nchanchou; Lekoubou, Alain; Echouffo-Tcheugui, Justin Basile; Matsha, Tandi E

    2014-02-01

    Absolute risk models or clinical prediction models have been incorporated in guidelines, and are increasingly advocated as tools to assist risk stratification and guide prevention and treatments decisions relating to common health conditions such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus. We have reviewed the historical development and principles of prediction research, including their statistical underpinning, as well as implications for routine practice, with a focus on predictive modelling for CVD and diabetes. Predictive modelling for CVD risk, which has developed over the last five decades, has been largely influenced by the Framingham Heart Study investigators, while it is only ∼20 years ago that similar efforts were started in the field of diabetes. Identification of predictive factors is an important preliminary step which provides the knowledge base on potential predictors to be tested for inclusion during the statistical derivation of the final model. The derived models must then be tested both on the development sample (internal validation) and on other populations in different settings (external validation). Updating procedures (e.g. recalibration) should be used to improve the performance of models that fail the tests of external validation. Ultimately, the effect of introducing validated models in routine practice on the process and outcomes of care as well as its cost-effectiveness should be tested in impact studies before wide dissemination of models beyond the research context. Several predictions models have been developed for CVD or diabetes, but very few have been externally validated or tested in impact studies, and their comparative performance has yet to be fully assessed. A shift of focus from developing new CVD or diabetes prediction models to validating the existing ones will improve their adoption in routine practice.

  11. Calibration plots for risk prediction models in the presence of competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerds, Thomas A; Andersen, Per K; Kattan, Michael W

    2014-08-15

    A predicted risk of 17% can be called reliable if it can be expected that the event will occur to about 17 of 100 patients who all received a predicted risk of 17%. Statistical models can predict the absolute risk of an event such as cardiovascular death in the presence of competing risks such as death due to other causes. For personalized medicine and patient counseling, it is necessary to check that the model is calibrated in the sense that it provides reliable predictions for all subjects. There are three often encountered practical problems when the aim is to display or test if a risk prediction model is well calibrated. The first is lack of independent validation data, the second is right censoring, and the third is that when the risk scale is continuous, the estimation problem is as difficult as density estimation. To deal with these problems, we propose to estimate calibration curves for competing risks models based on jackknife pseudo-values that are combined with a nearest neighborhood smoother and a cross-validation approach to deal with all three problems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Providing access to risk prediction tools via the HL7 XML-formatted risk web service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chipman, Jonathan; Drohan, Brian; Blackford, Amanda; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Hughes, Kevin; Bosinoff, Phil

    2013-07-01

    Cancer risk prediction tools provide valuable information to clinicians but remain computationally challenging. Many clinics find that CaGene or HughesRiskApps fit their needs for easy- and ready-to-use software to obtain cancer risks; however, these resources may not fit all clinics' needs. The HughesRiskApps Group and BayesMendel Lab therefore developed a web service, called "Risk Service", which may be integrated into any client software to quickly obtain standardized and up-to-date risk predictions for BayesMendel tools (BRCAPRO, MMRpro, PancPRO, and MelaPRO), the Tyrer-Cuzick IBIS Breast Cancer Risk Evaluation Tool, and the Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool. Software clients that can convert their local structured data into the HL7 XML-formatted family and clinical patient history (Pedigree model) may integrate with the Risk Service. The Risk Service uses Apache Tomcat and Apache Axis2 technologies to provide an all Java web service. The software client sends HL7 XML information containing anonymized family and clinical history to a Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (DFCI) server, where it is parsed, interpreted, and processed by multiple risk tools. The Risk Service then formats the results into an HL7 style message and returns the risk predictions to the originating software client. Upon consent, users may allow DFCI to maintain the data for future research. The Risk Service implementation is exemplified through HughesRiskApps. The Risk Service broadens the availability of valuable, up-to-date cancer risk tools and allows clinics and researchers to integrate risk prediction tools into their own software interface designed for their needs. Each software package can collect risk data using its own interface, and display the results using its own interface, while using a central, up-to-date risk calculator. This allows users to choose from multiple interfaces while always getting the latest risk calculations. Consenting users contribute their data for future

  13. Renal Resistance Trend During Hypothermic Machine Perfusion Is More Predictive of Postoperative Outcome Than Biopsy Score: Preliminary Experience in 35 Consecutive Kidney Transplantations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bissolati, Massimiliano; Gazzetta, Paolo Giovanni; Caldara, Rossana; Guarneri, Giovanni; Adamenko, Olga; Giannone, Fabio; Mazza, Michele; Maggi, Giulia; Tomanin, Deborah; Rosati, Riccardo; Secchi, Antonio; Socci, Carlo

    2018-03-30

    Hypothermic machine perfusion (HPM) grants a better postoperative outcome in transplantation of organs procured from extended criteria donors (ECDs) and donors after cardiac death (DCD). So far, the only available parameter for outcome prediction concerning those organs is pretransplant biopsy score. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether renal resistance (RR) trend during HPM may be used as a predictive marker for post-transplantation outcome. From December 2015 to present, HMP has been systematically applied to all organs from ECDs and DCD. All grafts underwent pretransplantation biopsy evaluation using Karpinski's histological score. Only organs that reached RR value ≤1.0 within 3 hours of perfusion were transplanted. Single kidney transplantation (SKT) or double kidney transplantation (DKT) were performed according to biopsy score results. Sixty-five HMPs were performed (58 from ECDs and 7 from DCD/ECMO donors). Fifteen kidneys were insufficiently reconditioned (RR > 1) and were therefore discarded. Forty-nine kidneys were transplanted, divided between 21 SKT and 14 DKT. Overall primary nonfunction (PNF) and delayed graft function (DGF) rate were 2.9 and 17.1%, respectively. DGF were more common in kidneys from DCD (67 vs. 7%; P = 0.004). Biopsy score did not correlate with PNF/DGF rate (P = 0.870) and postoperative creatinine trend (P = 0.796). Recipients of kidneys that reached RR ≤ 1.0 within 1 hour of HMP had a lower PNF/DGF rate (11 vs. 44%; P = 0.033) and faster serum creatinine decrease (POD10 creatinine: 1.79 mg/dL vs. 4.33 mg/dL; P = 0.019). RR trend is more predictive of post-transplantation outcome than biopsy score. Hence, RR trend should be taken into account in the pretransplantation evaluation of the organs. © 2018 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. The Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Stalking Risk Profile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEwan, Troy E; Shea, Daniel E; Daffern, Michael; MacKenzie, Rachel D; Ogloff, James R P; Mullen, Paul E

    2018-03-01

    This study assessed the reliability and validity of the Stalking Risk Profile (SRP), a structured measure for assessing stalking risks. The SRP was administered at the point of assessment or retrospectively from file review for 241 adult stalkers (91% male) referred to a community-based forensic mental health service. Interrater reliability was high for stalker type, and moderate-to-substantial for risk judgments and domain scores. Evidence for predictive validity and discrimination between stalking recidivists and nonrecidivists for risk judgments depended on follow-up duration. Discrimination was moderate (area under the curve = 0.66-0.68) and positive and negative predictive values good over the full follow-up period ( Mdn = 170.43 weeks). At 6 months, discrimination was better than chance only for judgments related to stalking of new victims (area under the curve = 0.75); however, high-risk stalkers still reoffended against their original victim(s) 2 to 4 times as often as low-risk stalkers. Implications for the clinical utility and refinement of the SRP are discussed.

  15. Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Naomi J; White, Piran C L; McClean, Colin J; Marion, Glenn; Evans, Andy; Hutchings, Michael R

    2011-01-10

    Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke) is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

  16. Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naomi J Fox

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

  17. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  18. Machine learning derived risk prediction of anorexia nervosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yiran; Wei, Zhi; Keating, Brendan J; Hakonarson, Hakon

    2016-01-20

    Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a complex psychiatric disease with a moderate to strong genetic contribution. In addition to conventional genome wide association (GWA) studies, researchers have been using machine learning methods in conjunction with genomic data to predict risk of diseases in which genetics play an important role. In this study, we collected whole genome genotyping data on 3940 AN cases and 9266 controls from the Genetic Consortium for Anorexia Nervosa (GCAN), the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 3 (WTCCC3), Price Foundation Collaborative Group and the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP), and applied machine learning methods for predicting AN disease risk. The prediction performance is measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), indicating how well the model distinguishes cases from unaffected control subjects. Logistic regression model with the lasso penalty technique generated an AUC of 0.693, while Support Vector Machines and Gradient Boosted Trees reached AUC's of 0.691 and 0.623, respectively. Using different sample sizes, our results suggest that larger datasets are required to optimize the machine learning models and achieve higher AUC values. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to assess AN risk based on genome wide genotype level data. Future integration of genomic, environmental and family-based information is likely to improve the AN risk evaluation process, eventually benefitting AN patients and families in the clinical setting.

  19. Predictive risk factors for moderate to severe hyperbilirubinemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gláucia Macedo de Lima

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to describe predictive factors for severity of neonataljaundice in newborn infants treated at the University Neonatal Clinic,highlighting maternal, obstetric and neonatal factors. Methods: Acohort retrospective study by means of review of medical charts todefine risk factors associated with moderate and severe jaundice.The cohort consisted of newborns diagnosed with indirect neonatalhyperbilirubinemia and submitted to phototherapy. Risk was classifiedas maternal, prenatal, obstetric and neonatal factors; risk estimationwas based on the odds ratio (95% confidence interval; a bi-variantmultivariate regression logistic analysis was applied to variables forp < 0.1. Results: Of 818 babies born during the studied period, 94(11% had jaundice prior to hospital discharge. Phototherapy was usedon 69 (73% patients. Predictive factors for severity were multiparity;prolonged rupture of membranes, dystocia, cephalohematoma, a lowApgar score, prematurity and small-for-date babies. Following birth,breastfeeding, sepsis, Rh incompatibility, and jaundice presentingbefore the third day of life were associated with an increased risk ofhyperbilirubinemia and the need for therapy. Conclusion: Other thanthose characteristics that are singly associated with phototherapy,we concluded that multiparity, presumed neonatal asphyxia, low birthweight and infection are the main predictive factors leading to moderateand severe jaundice in newborn infants in our neonatal unit.

  20. Classification and Risk-factor Analysis of Postoperative Cardio-pulmonary 
Complications after Lobectomy in Patients with Stage I Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yutian LAI

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective There are incresing lung cancer patients detected and diagnosed at the intermediate stage when the pre-malignant or early lesions are amenable to resection and cure, owing to the progress of medical technology, the renewal of detection methods, the popularity of medical screening and the improvement of social health consciousness. The aim of this study is to investigate the risk factors of the occurrence of postoperative cardio-pulmonary complications in stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC patients, based on routine laboratory tests, basic characteristics, and intraoperative variables in hospital. Methods The 421 patients after lobectomy in patients with stage I NSCLC at the West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2012 to December 2013 were included into the study and stratified into complication group and non-complication group, according to whether to occur postoperative cardio-pulmonary complications after lobectomy in 30 days. Results Of them, 64 (15.2% patients were finally identified and selected into the complication group, compared with 357 (84.8% in non-complication group: pneumonia (8.8%, 37/421 was the primary complication, and other main complications included atelectasis (5.9%, 25/421, pleural effusion (≥middle (5.0%, 21/421, persistent air leak (3.6%, 15/421; The operation time (P=0.007, amount of blood loss (P=0.034, preoperative chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD (P=0.027, white blood cell (WBC count (P<0.001, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR (P<0.001 were significantly different between the two groups. According to the binary logistics regression analysis, preoperative COPD (OR=0.031, 95%CI: 0.012-0.078, P<0.001 and WBC count (OR=1.451, 95%CI: 1.212-1.736, P<0.001 were independent risk factors for postoperative cardio-pulmonary complications. Conclusion Among an array of clinical variables in hospital, operation time, preoperative white blood cell count, preoperative COPD

  1. A risk prediction model for xerostomia: a retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villa, Alessandro; Nordio, Francesco; Gohel, Anita

    2016-12-01

    We investigated the prevalence of xerostomia in dental patients and built a xerostomia risk prediction model by incorporating a wide range of risk factors. Socio-demographic data, past medical history, self-reported dry mouth and related symptoms were collected retrospectively from January 2010 to September 2013 for all new dental patients. A logistic regression framework was used to build a risk prediction model for xerostomia. External validation was performed using an independent data set to test the prediction power. A total of 12 682 patients were included in this analysis (54.3%, females). Xerostomia was reported by 12.2% of patients. The proportion of people reporting xerostomia was higher among those who were taking more medications (OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.08-1.13) or recreational drug users (OR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.1-1.9). Rheumatic diseases (OR = 2.17, 95% CI = 1.88-2.51), psychiatric diseases (OR = 2.34, 95% CI = 2.05-2.68), eating disorders (OR = 2.28, 95% CI = 1.55-3.36) and radiotherapy (OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.43-2.80) were good predictors of xerostomia. For the test model performance, the ROC-AUC was 0.816 and in the external validation sample, the ROC-AUC was 0.799. The xerostomia risk prediction model had high accuracy and discriminated between high- and low-risk individuals. Clinicians could use this model to identify the classes of medications and systemic diseases associated with xerostomia. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S and The Gerodontology Association. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Lung cancer in never smokers Epidemiology and risk prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, William J.; Meza, Rafael; Jeon, Jihyoun; Moolgavkar, Suresh

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter we review the epidemiology of lung cancer incidence and mortality among never smokers/ nonsmokers and describe the never smoker lung cancer risk models used by CISNET modelers. Our review focuses on those influences likely to have measurable population impact on never smoker risk, such as secondhand smoke, even though the individual-level impact may be small. Occupational exposures may also contribute importantly to the population attributable risk of lung cancer. We examine the following risk factors in this chapter: age, environmental tobacco smoke, cooking fumes, ionizing radiation including radon gas, inherited genetic susceptibility, selected occupational exposures, preexisting lung disease, and oncogenic viruses. We also compare the prevalence of never smokers between the three CISNET smoking scenarios and present the corresponding lung cancer mortality estimates among never smokers as predicted by a typical CISNET model. PMID:22882894

  3. Cumulative risk hypothesis: Predicting and preventing child maltreatment recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, David; Åsberg, Kia; Peer, Samuel; Prince, Gwendolyn

    2016-08-01

    Although Child Protective Services (CPS) and other child welfare agencies aim to prevent further maltreatment in cases of child abuse and neglect, recidivism is common. Having a better understanding of recidivism predictors could aid in preventing additional instances of maltreatment. A previous study identified two CPS interventions that predicted recidivism: psychotherapy for the parent, which was related to a reduced risk of recidivism, and temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody, which was related to an increased recidivism risk. However, counter to expectations, this previous study did not identify any other specific risk factors related to maltreatment recidivism. For the current study, it was hypothesized that (a) cumulative risk (i.e., the total number of risk factors) would significantly predict maltreatment recidivism above and beyond intervention variables in a sample of CPS case files and that (b) therapy for the parent would be related to a reduced likelihood of recidivism. Because it was believed that the relation between temporary removal of a child from the parent's custody and maltreatment recidivism is explained by cumulative risk, the study also hypothesized that that the relation between temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody and recidivism would be mediated by cumulative risk. After performing a hierarchical logistic regression analysis, the first two hypotheses were supported, and an additional predictor, psychotherapy for the child, also was related to reduced chances of recidivism. However, Hypothesis 3 was not supported, as risk did not significantly mediate the relation between temporary removal and recidivism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Predicting risk and human reliability: a new approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R.; Ha, T.-S.

    2009-01-01

    Learning from experience describes human reliability and skill acquisition, and the resulting theory has been validated by comparison against millions of outcome data from multiple industries and technologies worldwide. The resulting predictions were used to benchmark the classic first generation human reliability methods adopted in probabilistic risk assessments. The learning rate, probabilities and response times are also consistent with the existing psychological models for human learning and error correction. The new approach also implies a finite lower bound probability that is not predicted by empirical statistical distributions that ignore the known and fundamental learning effects. (author)

  5. Risk prediction of cardiovascular death based on the QTc interval

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas B; Graff, Claus; Rasmussen, Peter V

    2014-01-01

    electrocardiograms from 173 529 primary care patients aged 50-90 years were collected during 2001-11. The Framingham formula was used for heart rate-correction of the QT interval. Data on medication, comorbidity, and outcomes were retrieved from administrative registries. During a median follow-up period of 6......AIMS: Using a large, contemporary primary care population we aimed to provide absolute long-term risks of cardiovascular death (CVD) based on the QTc interval and to test whether the QTc interval is of value in risk prediction of CVD on an individual level. METHODS AND RESULTS: Digital...

  6. Risk determination after an acute myocardial infarction: review of 3 clinical risk prediction tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scruth, Elizabeth Ann; Page, Karen; Cheng, Eugene; Campbell, Michelle; Worrall-Carter, Linda

    2012-01-01

    The objective of the study was to provide comprehensive information for the clinical nurse specialist (CNS) on commonly used clinical prediction (risk assessment) tools used to estimate risk of a secondary cardiac or noncardiac event and mortality in patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The evolution and widespread adoption of primary PCI represent major advances in the treatment of acute myocardial infarction, specifically STEMI. The American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association have recommended early risk stratification for patients presenting with acute coronary syndromes using several clinical risk scores to identify patients' mortality and secondary event risk after PCI. Clinical nurse specialists are integral to any performance improvement strategy. Their knowledge and understandings of clinical prediction tools will be essential in carrying out important assessment, identifying and managing risk in patients who have sustained a STEMI, and enhancing discharge education including counseling on medications and lifestyle changes. Over the past 2 decades, risk scores have been developed from clinical trials to facilitate risk assessment. There are several risk scores that can be used to determine in-hospital and short-term survival. This article critiques the most common tools: the Thrombolytic in Myocardial Infarction risk score, the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score, and the Controlled Abciximab and Device Investigation to Lower Late Angioplasty Complications risk score. The importance of incorporating risk screening assessment tools (that are important for clinical prediction models) to guide therapeutic management of patients cannot be underestimated. The ability to forecast secondary risk after a STEMI will assist in determining which patients would require the most aggressive level of treatment and monitoring postintervention including

  7. Preoperative alcoholism and postoperative morbidity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tonnesen, H; Kehlet, H

    1999-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Preoperative risk assessment has become part of daily clinical practice, but preoperative alcohol abuse has not received much attention. METHODS: A Medline search was carried out to identify original papers published from 1967 to 1998. Relevant articles on postoperative morbidity...... in alcohol abusers were used to evaluate the evidence. RESULTS: Prospective and retrospective studies demonstrate a twofold to threefold increase in postoperative morbidity in alcohol abusers, the most frequent complications being infections, bleeding and cardiopulmonary insufficiency. Wound complications...... to postoperative morbidity. CONCLUSION: Alcohol consumption should be included in the preoperative assessment of likely postoperative outcome. Reduction of postoperative morbidity in alcohol abusers may include preoperative alcohol abstinence to improve organ function, or perioperative alcohol administration...

  8. Nonparametric predictive inference for combined competing risks data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen-Maturi, Tahani; Coolen, Frank P.A.

    2014-01-01

    The nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) approach for competing risks data has recently been presented, in particular addressing the question due to which of the competing risks the next unit will fail, and also considering the effects of unobserved, re-defined, unknown or removed competing risks. In this paper, we introduce how the NPI approach can be used to deal with situations where units are not all at risk from all competing risks. This may typically occur if one combines information from multiple samples, which can, e.g. be related to further aspects of units that define the samples or groups to which the units belong or to different applications where the circumstances under which the units operate can vary. We study the effect of combining the additional information from these multiple samples, so effectively borrowing information on specific competing risks from other units, on the inferences. Such combination of information can be relevant to competing risks scenarios in a variety of application areas, including engineering and medical studies

  9. Predicting adolescent's cyberbullying behavior: A longitudinal risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlett, Christopher P

    2015-06-01

    The current study used the risk factor approach to test the unique and combined influence of several possible risk factors for cyberbullying attitudes and behavior using a four-wave longitudinal design with an adolescent US sample. Participants (N = 96; average age = 15.50 years) completed measures of cyberbullying attitudes, perceptions of anonymity, cyberbullying behavior, and demographics four times throughout the academic school year. Several logistic regression equations were used to test the contribution of these possible risk factors. Results showed that (a) cyberbullying attitudes and previous cyberbullying behavior were important unique risk factors for later cyberbullying behavior, (b) anonymity and previous cyberbullying behavior were valid risk factors for later cyberbullying attitudes, and (c) the likelihood of engaging in later cyberbullying behavior increased with the addition of risk factors. Overall, results show the unique and combined influence of such risk factors for predicting later cyberbullying behavior. Results are discussed in terms of theory. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Improving default risk prediction using Bayesian model uncertainty techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazemi, Reza; Mosleh, Ali

    2012-11-01

    Credit risk is the potential exposure of a creditor to an obligor's failure or refusal to repay the debt in principal or interest. The potential of exposure is measured in terms of probability of default. Many models have been developed to estimate credit risk, with rating agencies dating back to the 19th century. They provide their assessment of probability of default and transition probabilities of various firms in their annual reports. Regulatory capital requirements for credit risk outlined by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision have made it essential for banks and financial institutions to develop sophisticated models in an attempt to measure credit risk with higher accuracy. The Bayesian framework proposed in this article uses the techniques developed in physical sciences and engineering for dealing with model uncertainty and expert accuracy to obtain improved estimates of credit risk and associated uncertainties. The approach uses estimates from one or more rating agencies and incorporates their historical accuracy (past performance data) in estimating future default risk and transition probabilities. Several examples demonstrate that the proposed methodology can assess default probability with accuracy exceeding the estimations of all the individual models. Moreover, the methodology accounts for potentially significant departures from "nominal predictions" due to "upsetting events" such as the 2008 global banking crisis. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Alcohol screening and risk of postoperative complications in male VA patients undergoing major non-cardiac surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bradley, Katharine A; Rubinsky, Anna D; Sun, Haili

    2011-01-01

    Patients who misuse alcohol are at increased risk for surgical complications. Four weeks of preoperative abstinence decreases the risk of complications, but practical approaches for early preoperative identification of alcohol misuse are needed....

  12. Risk prediction, safety analysis and quantitative probability methods - a caveat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Critchley, O.H.

    1976-01-01

    Views are expressed on the use of quantitative techniques for the determination of value judgements in nuclear safety assessments, hazard evaluation, and risk prediction. Caution is urged when attempts are made to quantify value judgements in the field of nuclear safety. Criteria are given the meaningful application of reliability methods but doubts are expressed about their application to safety analysis, risk prediction and design guidances for experimental or prototype plant. Doubts are also expressed about some concomitant methods of population dose evaluation. The complexities of new designs of nuclear power plants make the problem of safety assessment more difficult but some possible approaches are suggested as alternatives to the quantitative techniques criticized. (U.K.)

  13. Predictions of space radiation fatality risk for exploration missions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A; To, Khiet; Cacao, Eliedonna

    2017-05-01

    In this paper we describe revisions to the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model focusing on updates to probability distribution functions (PDF) representing the uncertainties in the radiation quality factor (QF) model parameters and the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF). We integrate recent heavy ion data on liver, colorectal, intestinal, lung, and Harderian gland tumors with other data from fission neutron experiments into the model analysis. In an earlier work we introduced distinct QFs for leukemia and solid cancer risk predictions, and here we consider liver cancer risks separately because of the higher RBE's reported in mouse experiments compared to other tumors types, and distinct risk factors for liver cancer for astronauts compared to the U.S. The revised model is used to make predictions of fatal cancer and circulatory disease risks for 1-year deep space and International Space Station (ISS) missions, and a 940 day Mars mission. We analyzed the contribution of the various model parameter uncertainties to the overall uncertainty, which shows that the uncertainties in relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors at high LET due to statistical uncertainties and differences across tissue types and mouse strains are the dominant uncertainty. NASA's exposure limits are approached or exceeded for each mission scenario considered. Two main conclusions are made: 1) Reducing the current estimate of about a 3-fold uncertainty to a 2-fold or lower uncertainty will require much more expansive animal carcinogenesis studies in order to reduce statistical uncertainties and understand tissue, sex and genetic variations. 2) Alternative model assumptions such as non-targeted effects, increased tumor lethality and decreased latency at high LET, and non-cancer mortality risks from circulatory diseases could significantly increase risk estimates to several times higher than the NASA limits. Copyright © 2017 The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR

  14. Predicting epidemic risk from past temporal contact data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenio Valdano

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Understanding how epidemics spread in a system is a crucial step to prevent and control outbreaks, with broad implications on the system's functioning, health, and associated costs. This can be achieved by identifying the elements at higher risk of infection and implementing targeted surveillance and control measures. One important ingredient to consider is the pattern of disease-transmission contacts among the elements, however lack of data or delays in providing updated records may hinder its use, especially for time-varying patterns. Here we explore to what extent it is possible to use past temporal data of a system's pattern of contacts to predict the risk of infection of its elements during an emerging outbreak, in absence of updated data. We focus on two real-world temporal systems; a livestock displacements trade network among animal holdings, and a network of sexual encounters in high-end prostitution. We define the node's loyalty as a local measure of its tendency to maintain contacts with the same elements over time, and uncover important non-trivial correlations with the node's epidemic risk. We show that a risk assessment analysis incorporating this knowledge and based on past structural and temporal pattern properties provides accurate predictions for both systems. Its generalizability is tested by introducing a theoretical model for generating synthetic temporal networks. High accuracy of our predictions is recovered across different settings, while the amount of possible predictions is system-specific. The proposed method can provide crucial information for the setup of targeted intervention strategies.

  15. Postoperative recurrence after VATS for spontaneous pneumothorax

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katsuno, Gotaro; Tsumura, Makoto; Kokudo, Yasutaka; Muraoka, Atsushi; Tsuruno, Masaki

    2003-01-01

    A total of 88 cases of 81 patients with spontaneous pneumothorax treated at the hospital from March 1992 to August 2001 were subjected to a study of examining preoperative chest CT and thoracographic findings from the standpoint of postoperative recurrence. Preoperative chest CT and thoracography were conducted in 82 cases and 41 cases (including 25 cases with continuous air leakage), respectively. Eight (9.1%) patients developed recurrence of pneumothorax, and three patients of them underwent reoperation. Considering the intraoperative findings, newly formed bullae appeared to be a cause of recurrence. Resulting from these examinations, we conclude that it is difficult to predict the risk factor for postoperative recurrence at this time, in addition, it is important that the area of air leakage can be confirmed by thoracoscopic findings. (author)

  16. How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolhouse, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Formal, quantitative approaches are now widely used to make predictions about the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak, how the disease will spread, and how to control it. Several well-established methodologies are available, including risk factor analysis, risk modelling and dynamic modelling. Even so, predictive modelling is very much the ‘art of the possible’, which tends to drive research effort towards some areas and away from others which may be at least as important. Building on the undoubted success of quantitative modelling of the epidemiology and control of human and animal diseases such as AIDS, influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and BSE, attention needs to be paid to developing a more holistic framework that captures the role of the underlying drivers of disease risks, from demography and behaviour to land use and climate change. At the same time, there is still considerable room for improvement in how quantitative analyses and their outputs are communicated to policy makers and other stakeholders. A starting point would be generally accepted guidelines for ‘good practice’ for the development and the use of predictive models. PMID:21624924

  17. The Economic Value of Predicting Bond Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarno, Lucio; Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian

    2016-01-01

    evaluation. More specifically, the model mostly generates positive (negative) economic value during times of high (low) macroeconomic uncertainty. Overall, the expectations hypothesis remains a useful benchmark for investment decisions in bond markets, especially in low uncertainty states.......This paper studies whether the evident statistical predictability of bond risk premia translates into economic gains for investors. We propose a novel estimation strategy for affine term structure models that jointly fits yields and bond excess returns, thereby capturing predictive information...... otherwise hidden to standard estimations. The model predicts excess returns with high regression R2s and high forecast accuracy but cannot outperform the expectations hypothesis out-of-sample in terms of economic value, showing a general contrast between statistical and economic metrics of forecast...

  18. Predicted cancer risks induced by computed tomography examinations during childhood, by a quantitative risk assessment approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journy, Neige; Ancelet, Sophie; Rehel, Jean-Luc; Mezzarobba, Myriam; Aubert, Bernard; Laurier, Dominique; Bernier, Marie-Odile

    2014-03-01

    The potential adverse effects associated with exposure to ionizing radiation from computed tomography (CT) in pediatrics must be characterized in relation to their expected clinical benefits. Additional epidemiological data are, however, still awaited for providing a lifelong overview of potential cancer risks. This paper gives predictions of potential lifetime risks of cancer incidence that would be induced by CT examinations during childhood in French routine practices in pediatrics. Organ doses were estimated from standard radiological protocols in 15 hospitals. Excess risks of leukemia, brain/central nervous system, breast and thyroid cancers were predicted from dose-response models estimated in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors' dataset and studies of medical exposures. Uncertainty in predictions was quantified using Monte Carlo simulations. This approach predicts that 100,000 skull/brain scans in 5-year-old children would result in eight (90 % uncertainty interval (UI) 1-55) brain/CNS cancers and four (90 % UI 1-14) cases of leukemia and that 100,000 chest scans would lead to 31 (90 % UI 9-101) thyroid cancers, 55 (90 % UI 20-158) breast cancers, and one (90 % UI risks without exposure). Compared to background risks, radiation-induced risks would be low for individuals throughout life, but relative risks would be highest in the first decades of life. Heterogeneity in the radiological protocols across the hospitals implies that 5-10 % of CT examinations would be related to risks 1.4-3.6 times higher than those for the median doses. Overall excess relative risks in exposed populations would be 1-10 % depending on the site of cancer and the duration of follow-up. The results emphasize the potential risks of cancer specifically from standard CT examinations in pediatrics and underline the necessity of optimization of radiological protocols.

  19. Clinical Risk Scoring Models for Prediction of Acute Kidney Injury after Living Donor Liver Transplantation: A Retrospective Observational Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mi Hye Park

    Full Text Available Acute kidney injury (AKI is a frequent complication of liver transplantation and is associated with increased mortality. We identified the incidence and modifiable risk factors for AKI after living-donor liver transplantation (LDLT and constructed risk scoring models for AKI prediction. We retrospectively reviewed 538 cases of LDLT. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate risk factors for the prediction of AKI as defined by the RIFLE criteria (RIFLE = risk, injury, failure, loss, end stage. Three risk scoring models were developed in the retrospective cohort by including all variables that were significant in univariate analysis, or variables that were significant in multivariate analysis by backward or forward stepwise variable selection. The risk models were validated by way of cross-validation. The incidence of AKI was 27.3% (147/538 and 6.3% (34/538 required postoperative renal replacement therapy. Independent risk factors for AKI by multivariate analysis of forward stepwise variable selection included: body-mass index >27.5 kg/m2 [odds ratio (OR 2.46, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.32-4.55], serum albumin 20 (OR 2.01, 95%CI 1.17-3.44, operation time >600 min (OR 1.81, 95%CI 1.07-3.06, warm ischemic time >40 min (OR 2.61, 95%CI 1.55-4.38, postreperfusion syndrome (OR 2.96, 95%CI 1.55-4.38, mean blood glucose during the day of surgery >150 mg/dl (OR 1.66, 95%CI 1.01-2.70, cryoprecipitate > 6 units (OR 4.96, 95%CI 2.84-8.64, blood loss/body weight >60 ml/kg (OR 4.05, 95%CI 2.28-7.21, and calcineurin inhibitor use without combined mycophenolate mofetil (OR 1.87, 95%CI 1.14-3.06. Our risk models performed better than did a previously reported score by Utsumi et al. in our study cohort. Doses of calcineurin inhibitor should be reduced by combined use of mycophenolate mofetil to decrease postoperative AKI. Prospective randomized trials are required to address whether artificial modification of hypoalbuminemia, hyperglycemia

  20. Prevalence and Risk Factors of Postoperative Delirium in Patients Undergoing Open Heart Surgery in Northwest of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmadreza Jodati

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Delirium as a relatively common complication following cardiac surgery remains a contributory factor in postoperative mortality and an obstacle to early discharge of patients.Methods: In the present study 329 patients who underwent open heart surgery between 1st January 2008 to 1st January 2009 in Shahid Madani Heart Center, Tabriz, Iran were enrolled.Results: Overall 4.9% of patients developed delirium after cardiac surgery. We found atrial fibrillation (P = 0.005, lung diseases (P = 0.04 and hypertension (P = 0.02 to be more common in patients who develop delirium postoperatively. Furthermore, the length of intensive care unit (ICU stay, cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB time, and ventilation period were also significantly increased. Also a statistically meaningful relationship between the female gender and development of delirium was also noted (P = 0.02. On the other hand no meaningful relationship was detected between diabetes, history of cerebral vascular diseases, peripheral vascular diseases, myocardial infarction, development of pneumonia following surgery, and laboratory levels of sodium, potassium, glucose, and complete blood cell count (CBC including white blood cells, red blood cells, platelets in the blood-hemoglobin and hematocrits. Also environmental factors like presence of other patients or companion with the patient, and objects like clock, window and calendar in the patient’s room did not affect prevention of delirium.Conclusion: Based on this and other investigations, it can be suggested to use MMPI test to recognize pathologic elements to prevented delirium after surgery and complementary treatment for coping with delirium.