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Sample records for predicting global fund

  1. Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies

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    O'Brien Megan E

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding. Methods Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries. Results Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p Conclusion This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability.

  2. How a new funding model will shift allocations from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria.

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    Fan, Victoria Y; Glassman, Amanda; Silverman, Rachel L

    2014-12-01

    Policy makers deciding how to fund global health programs in low- and middle-income countries face important but difficult questions about how to allocate resources across countries. In this article we present a typology of three allocation methodologies to align allocations with priorities. We then apply our typology to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria. We examined the Global Fund's historical HIV allocations and its predicted allocations under a new funding model that creates an explicit allocation methodology. We found that under the new funding model, substantial shifts in the Global Fund's portfolio are likely to result from concentrating resources in countries with more HIV cases and lower per capita incomes. For example, South Africa, which had 15.8 percent of global HIV cases in 2009, could see its Global Fund HIV funding more than triple, from historic levels that averaged 3.0 percent to 9.7 percent of total Global Fund allocations. The new funding model methodology is expected, but not guaranteed, to improve the efficiency of Global Fund allocations in comparison to historical practice. We conclude with recommendations for the Global Fund and other global health donors to further develop their allocation methodologies and processes to improve efficiency and transparency. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  3. Farms and funds: investment funds in the global land rush

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buxton, Abbi; Campanale, Mark; Cotula, Lorenzo

    2012-01-15

    Investment funds show a growing interest in farmland and agriculture. They are buying up land and agribusinesses in developing countries with the expectation of high long-term returns linked to rising land prices, growing populations and increasing demand for food. While the media has reported extensively on the involvement of these funds in the global land rush, the mechanics remain little understood by the broader public. What is the interest and what is driving it? Who are the players and what processes do their investment decisions go through? What are the impacts in recipient countries? And what action can be taken to promote investments that genuinely support local people?.

  4. HIV/AIDS: global trends, global funds and delivery bottlenecks

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    Hadingham Jacqui

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Globalisation affects all facets of human life, including health and well being. The HIV/AIDS epidemic has highlighted the global nature of human health and welfare and globalisation has given rise to a trend toward finding common solutions to global health challenges. Numerous international funds have been set up in recent times to address global health challenges such as HIV. However, despite increasingly large amounts of funding for health initiatives being made available to poorer regions of the world, HIV infection rates and prevalence continue to increase world wide. As a result, the AIDS epidemic is expanding and intensifying globally. Worst affected are undoubtedly the poorer regions of the world as combinations of poverty, disease, famine, political and economic instability and weak health infrastructure exacerbate the severe and far-reaching impacts of the epidemic. One of the major reasons for the apparent ineffectiveness of global interventions is historical weaknesses in the health systems of underdeveloped countries, which contribute to bottlenecks in the distribution and utilisation of funds. Strengthening these health systems, although a vital component in addressing the global epidemic, must however be accompanied by mitigation of other determinants as well. These are intrinsically complex and include social and environmental factors, sexual behaviour, issues of human rights and biological factors, all of which contribute to HIV transmission, progression and mortality. An equally important factor is ensuring an equitable balance between prevention and treatment programmes in order to holistically address the challenges presented by the epidemic.

  5. The Global Fund's resource allocation decisions for HIV programmes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Avdeeva, Olga; Lazarus, Jeff; Aziz, Mohamed Abdel

    2011-01-01

    Between 2002 and 2010, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria's investment in HIV increased substantially to reach US$12 billion. We assessed how the Global Fund's investments in HIV programmes were targeted to key populations in relation to disease burden and national income....

  6. Global Funds: Lessons from a not-too-distant past?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    sulaiman.adebowale

    2007-07-10

    Jul 10, 2007 ... The 1990s witnessed the establishment of global funds to address specific issues such as .... The 'roaring success' of the Green Revolution in Asia ... Agricultural development requires not only investment in particular projects.

  7. Global Fund investments in harm reduction from 2002 to 2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bridge, Jamie; Hunter, Benjamin M; Atun, Rifat

    2012-01-01

    Injecting drug use has been documented in 158 countries and is a major contributor to HIV epidemics. People who inject drugs have poor and inequitable access to HIV services. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria is the leading multilateral donor for HIV programmes and encourage...... applicants to include harm reduction interventions in their proposals. This study is the first detailed analysis of Global Fund investments in harm reduction interventions....

  8. Global health funding and economic development.

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    Martin, Greg; Grant, Alexandra; D'Agostino, Mark

    2012-04-10

    The impact of increased national wealth, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), on public health is widely understood, however an equally important but less well-acclaimed relationship exists between improvements in health and the growth of an economy. Communicable diseases such as HIV, TB, Malaria and the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) are impacting many of the world's poorest and most vulnerable populations, and depressing economic development. Sickness and disease has decreased the size and capabilities of the workforce through impeding access to education and suppressing foreign direct investment (FDI). There is clear evidence that by investing in health improvements a significant increase in GDP per capita can be attained in four ways: Firstly, healthier populations are more economically productive; secondly, proactive healthcare leads to decrease in many of the additive healthcare costs associated with lack of care (treating opportunistic infections in the case of HIV for example); thirdly, improved health represents a real economic and developmental outcome in-and-of itself and finally, healthcare spending capitalises on the Keynesian 'economic multiplier' effect. Continued under-investment in health and health systems represent an important threat to our future global prosperity. This editorial calls for a recognition of health as a major engine of economic growth and for commensurate investment in public health, particularly in poor countries.

  9. Global health funding and economic development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Greg

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The impact of increased national wealth, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP, on public health is widely understood, however an equally important but less well-acclaimed relationship exists between improvements in health and the growth of an economy. Communicable diseases such as HIV, TB, Malaria and the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs are impacting many of the world's poorest and most vulnerable populations, and depressing economic development. Sickness and disease has decreased the size and capabilities of the workforce through impeding access to education and suppressing foreign direct investment (FDI. There is clear evidence that by investing in health improvements a significant increase in GDP per capita can be attained in four ways: Firstly, healthier populations are more economically productive; secondly, proactive healthcare leads to decrease in many of the additive healthcare costs associated with lack of care (treating opportunistic infections in the case of HIV for example; thirdly, improved health represents a real economic and developmental outcome in-and-of itself and finally, healthcare spending capitalises on the Keynesian 'economic multiplier' effect. Continued under-investment in health and health systems represent an important threat to our future global prosperity. This editorial calls for a recognition of health as a major engine of economic growth and for commensurate investment in public health, particularly in poor countries.

  10. Global fund financing of tuberculosis services delivery in prisons.

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    Lee, Donna; Lal, S S; Komatsu, Ryuichi; Zumla, Alimuddin; Atun, Rifat

    2012-05-15

    Despite concerted efforts to scale up tuberculosis control with large amounts of international financing in the last 2 decades, tuberculosis continues to be a social issue affecting the world's most marginalized and disadvantaged communities. This includes prisoners, estimated at about 10 million globally, for whom tuberculosis is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria has emerged as the single largest international donor for tuberculosis control, including funding support in delivering tuberculosis treatment for the confined population. The Global Fund grants database, with an aggregate approved investment of $21.7 billion in 150 countries by the end of 2010, was reviewed to identify tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus/tuberculosis grants and activities that monitored the delivery of tuberculosis treatment and support activities in penitentiary settings. The distribution and trend of number of countries with tuberculosis prison support was mapped by year, geographic region, tuberculosis or multidrug-resistant tuberculosis burden, and prison population rate. We examined the types of grant recipients managing program delivery, their performance, and the nature and range of services provided. Fifty-three of the 105 countries (50%) with Global Fund-supported tuberculosis programs delivered services within prison settings. Thirty-two percent (73 of 228) of tuberculosis grants, representing $558 million of all disbursements of Global Fund tuberculosis support by the end of 2010, included output indicators related to tuberculosis services delivered in prisons. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of these grants were implemented by governments, with the remaining by civil society and other partners. In terms of services, half (36 of 73) of grants provided diagnosis and treatment and an additional 27% provided screening and monitoring of tuberculosis for prisoners. The range of services tracked was limited in scope

  11. Global health initiative investments and health systems strengthening: a content analysis of global fund investments

    OpenAIRE

    Warren, Ashley E; Wyss, Kaspar; Shakarishvili, George; Atun, Rifat; de Savigny, Don

    2013-01-01

    Background: Millions of dollars are invested annually under the umbrella of national health systems strengthening. Global health initiatives provide funding for low- and middle-income countries through disease-oriented programmes while maintaining that the interventions simultaneously strengthen systems. However, it is as yet unclear which, and to what extent, system-level interventions are being funded by these initiatives, nor is it clear how much funding they allocate to disease-specific a...

  12. Lend Global, Fund Local? Price and Funding Cost Margins in Multinational Banking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Galema, R.; Koetter, M.; Liesegang, C.

    2016-01-01

    In a proposed model of a multinational bank, interest margins determine local lending by foreign affiliates and the internal funding by parent banks. We exploit detailed parent-affiliate-level data of all German banks to empirically test our theoretical predictions in pre-crisis times. Local lending

  13. Global Security Contingency Fund: Summary and Issue Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-04

    Diplomacy and Development Review (QDDR), Washington, D.C., December 2010, p. 203; Gordon Adams and Rebecca Williams, A New Way Forward: Rebalancing ...Williams, A New Way Forward: Rebalancing Security Assistance Programs and (continued...) Global Security Contingency Fund: Summary and Issue Overview...a large security assistance portfolio . But others may point to the State Department’s creation of new programs under the Security Assistance

  14. Global Financial Governance: a Perspective from the International Monetary Fund

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    Ryszard Wilczyński

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available An environment for the activities of the International Monetary Fund (the IMF has fundamentally changed over the two recent decades. The strong development of financial innovations as well as of financial globalisation was among major forces driving the change and shaping the economic growth worldwide. As some economies were able - with the support from financial markets – to accelerate their growth, other countries suffered from turbulences, which were reinforced and transferred internationally through the volatile financial markets. The process of international financial contagion makes the case for global financial governance, which so far has been left behind the development of markets. The IMF is mandated to play a central role in the global governance designed to ensure financial stability. The article reconsiders the Fund’s role and includes an overview and assessment of its activities, particularly in the context of the global financial crisis in 2007-2010. In the aftermath of this crisis, the international financial stability may, however, again be at risk as several external imbalances in the global economy may be hardly sustainable. It is argued in the paper that, in addition to a gradually improving surveillance and lending as well as to adjusting resources by the Fund, an enhanced credibility of the institution is needed so that its role in the process of the stabilising global financial system is strong and effective.

  15. Global health initiative investments and health systems strengthening: a content analysis of global fund investments.

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    Warren, Ashley E; Wyss, Kaspar; Shakarishvili, George; Atun, Rifat; de Savigny, Don

    2013-07-26

    Millions of dollars are invested annually under the umbrella of national health systems strengthening. Global health initiatives provide funding for low- and middle-income countries through disease-oriented programmes while maintaining that the interventions simultaneously strengthen systems. However, it is as yet unclear which, and to what extent, system-level interventions are being funded by these initiatives, nor is it clear how much funding they allocate to disease-specific activities - through conventional 'vertical-programming' approach. Such funding can be channelled to one or more of the health system building blocks while targeting disease(s) or explicitly to system-wide activities. We operationalized the World Health Organization health system framework of the six building blocks to conduct a detailed assessment of Global Fund health system investments. Our application of this framework framework provides a comprehensive quantification of system-level interventions. We applied this systematically to a random subset of 52 of the 139 grants funded in Round 8 of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (totalling approximately US$1 billion). According to the analysis, 37% (US$ 362 million) of the Global Fund Round 8 funding was allocated to health systems strengthening. Of that, 38% (US$ 139 million) was for generic system-level interventions, rather than disease-specific system support. Around 82% of health systems strengthening funding (US$ 296 million) was allocated to service delivery, human resources, and medicines & technology, and within each of these to two to three interventions. Governance, financing, and information building blocks received relatively low funding. This study shows that a substantial portion of Global Fund's Round 8 funds was devoted to health systems strengthening. Dramatic skewing among the health system building blocks suggests opportunities for more balanced investments with regard to governance, financing, and

  16. Global predictability of temperature extremes

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    Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

    2018-05-01

    Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

  17. Targeting global conservation funding to limit immediate biodiversity declines.

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    Waldron, Anthony; Mooers, Arne O; Miller, Daniel C; Nibbelink, Nate; Redding, David; Kuhn, Tyler S; Roberts, J Timmons; Gittleman, John L

    2013-07-16

    Inadequate funding levels are a major impediment to effective global biodiversity conservation and are likely associated with recent failures to meet United Nations biodiversity targets. Some countries are more severely underfunded than others and therefore represent urgent financial priorities. However, attempts to identify these highly underfunded countries have been hampered for decades by poor and incomplete data on actual spending, coupled with uncertainty and lack of consensus over the relative size of spending gaps. Here, we assemble a global database of annual conservation spending. We then develop a statistical model that explains 86% of variation in conservation expenditures, and use this to identify countries where funding is robustly below expected levels. The 40 most severely underfunded countries contain 32% of all threatened mammalian diversity and include neighbors in some of the world's most biodiversity-rich areas (Sundaland, Wallacea, and Near Oceania). However, very modest increases in international assistance would achieve a large improvement in the relative adequacy of global conservation finance. Our results could therefore be quickly applied to limit immediate biodiversity losses at relatively little cost.

  18. Innovative financing for late-stage global health research and development: the Global Health Investment Fund.

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    Fitchett, Joseph Robert; Fan Li, Julia; Atun, Rifat

    2016-01-01

    Innovative financing strategies for global health are urgently needed to reinvigorate investment and new tools for impact. Bottleneck areas along the research and development (R&D) pipeline require particular attention, such as the transitions from preclinical discovery to clinical study, and product development to implementation and delivery. Successful organizations mobilizing and disbursing resources through innovating financing mechanisms include UNITAID, the Global Fund, and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. Although precise numbers are poorly documented, estimated investment in low-income settings falls seriously short of local need. This commentary discusses the newly established Global Health Investment Fund as a case study to support late-stage global health R&D. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Meaningful change or more of the same? The Global Fund's new funding model and the politics of HIV scale-up.

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    Kapilashrami, Anuj; Hanefeld, Johanna

    2014-01-01

    As we enter the fourth decade of HIV and AIDS, sustainability of treatment and prevention programmes is a growing concern in an environment of shrinking resources. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM) will be critical to maintaining current trajectories of scale-up and ultimately, ensuring access to HIV treatment and prevention for people in low/middle-income countries. The authors' prior research in India, Zambia and South Africa contributed evidence on the politics and impact of new institutional and funding arrangements, revealing a 'rhetoric-reality gap' in their impact on health systems, civil society participation, and achievement of population health. With its new funding strategy and disbursement model, the Fund proposes dramatic changes to its approach, emphasising value for money, greater fund predictability and flexibility and more proactive engagement in recipient countries, while foregrounding a human rights approach. This paper reviews the Fund's new strategy and examines its potential to respond to key criticisms concerning health systems impact, particularly the elite nature of this funding mechanism that generates competition between public and private sectors and marginalises local voices. The authors analyse strategy documents against their own research and published literature and reflect on whether the changes are likely to address challenges faced in bringing HIV programmes to scale and their likely effect on AIDS politics.

  20. Allocating Scarce Resources Strategically - An Evaluation and Discussion of the Global Fund's Pattern of Disbursements

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    McCoy, David; Kinyua, Kelvin

    2012-01-01

    Background The Global Fund is under pressure to improve its rationing of financial support. This study describes the GF's pattern of disbursements in relation to total health expenditure (THE), government health expenditure (GHE), income status and the burden of HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria. It also examines the potential for recipient countries to increase domestic public financing for health. Methods This is a cross-sectional study of 104 countries that received Global Fund disbursements in 2009. It analyses data on Global Fund disbursements; health financing indicators; government revenue and expenditure; and burden of disease. Findings Global Fund disbursements made up 0.37% of THE across all 104 countries; but with considerable country variation ranging from 0.002% to 53.4%. Global Fund disbursements to government amounted to 0.47% of GHE across the 104 countries, but again with considerable variation (in three countries more than half of GHE was based on Global Fund support). Although the Global Fund provides progressively more funding for lower income countries on average, there is much variation at the country such that here was no correlation between per capita GF disbursements and per capita THE, nor between per capita GF disbursement to government and per capita GHE. There was only a slight positive correlation between per capita GF disbursement and burden of disease. Several countries with a high degree of 'financial dependency' upon the Fund have the potential to increase levels of domestic financing for health. Discussion The Global Fund can improve its targeting of resources so that it better matches the pattern of global need. To do this it needs to: a) reduce the extent to which funds are allocated on a demand-driven basis; and b) align its funding model to broader health systems financing and patterns of health expenditure beyond the three diseases. PMID:22590496

  1. Allocating scarce resources strategically--an evaluation and discussion of the Global Fund's pattern of disbursements.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David McCoy

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The Global Fund is under pressure to improve its rationing of financial support. This study describes the GF's pattern of disbursements in relation to total health expenditure (THE, government health expenditure (GHE, income status and the burden of HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria. It also examines the potential for recipient countries to increase domestic public financing for health. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study of 104 countries that received Global Fund disbursements in 2009. It analyses data on Global Fund disbursements; health financing indicators; government revenue and expenditure; and burden of disease. FINDINGS: Global Fund disbursements made up 0.37% of THE across all 104 countries; but with considerable country variation ranging from 0.002% to 53.4%. Global Fund disbursements to government amounted to 0.47% of GHE across the 104 countries, but again with considerable variation (in three countries more than half of GHE was based on Global Fund support. Although the Global Fund provides progressively more funding for lower income countries on average, there is much variation at the country such that here was no correlation between per capita GF disbursements and per capita THE, nor between per capita GF disbursement to government and per capita GHE. There was only a slight positive correlation between per capita GF disbursement and burden of disease. Several countries with a high degree of 'financial dependency' upon the Fund have the potential to increase levels of domestic financing for health. DISCUSSION: The Global Fund can improve its targeting of resources so that it better matches the pattern of global need. To do this it needs to: a reduce the extent to which funds are allocated on a demand-driven basis; and b align its funding model to broader health systems financing and patterns of health expenditure beyond the three diseases.

  2. The effects of Global Fund financing on health governance in Brazil.

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    Gómez, Eduardo J; Atun, Rifat

    2012-07-16

    The impact of donors, such as national government (bi-lateral), private sector, and individual financial (philanthropic) contributions, on domestic health policies of developing nations has been the subject of scholarly discourse. Little is known, however, about the impact of global financial initiatives, such as the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, on policies and health governance of countries receiving funding from such initiatives. This study employs a qualitative methodological design based on a single case study: Brazil. Analysis at national, inter-governmental and community levels is based on in-depth interviews with the Global Fund and the Brazilian Ministry of Health and civil societal activists. Primary research is complemented with information from printed media, reports, journal articles, and books, which were used to deepen our analysis while providing supporting evidence. Our analysis suggests that in Brazil, Global Fund financing has helped to positively transform health governance at three tiers of analysis: the national-level, inter-governmental-level, and community-level. At the national-level, Global Fund financing has helped to increased political attention and commitment to relatively neglected diseases, such as tuberculosis, while harmonizing intra-bureaucratic relationships; at the inter-governmental-level, Global Fund financing has motivated the National Tuberculosis Programme to strengthen its ties with state and municipal health departments, and non-governmental organisations (NGOs); while at the community-level, the Global Fund's financing of civil societal institutions has encouraged the emergence of new civic movements, participation, and the creation of new municipal participatory institutions designed to monitor the disbursement of funds for Global Fund grants. Global Fund financing can help deepen health governance at multiple levels. Future work will need to explore how the financing of civil society by the

  3. The effects of Global Fund financing on health governance in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Objectives The impact of donors, such as national government (bi-lateral), private sector, and individual financial (philanthropic) contributions, on domestic health policies of developing nations has been the subject of scholarly discourse. Little is known, however, about the impact of global financial initiatives, such as the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, on policies and health governance of countries receiving funding from such initiatives. Methods This study employs a qualitative methodological design based on a single case study: Brazil. Analysis at national, inter-governmental and community levels is based on in-depth interviews with the Global Fund and the Brazilian Ministry of Health and civil societal activists. Primary research is complemented with information from printed media, reports, journal articles, and books, which were used to deepen our analysis while providing supporting evidence. Results Our analysis suggests that in Brazil, Global Fund financing has helped to positively transform health governance at three tiers of analysis: the national-level, inter-governmental-level, and community-level. At the national-level, Global Fund financing has helped to increased political attention and commitment to relatively neglected diseases, such as tuberculosis, while harmonizing intra-bureaucratic relationships; at the inter-governmental-level, Global Fund financing has motivated the National Tuberculosis Programme to strengthen its ties with state and municipal health departments, and non-governmental organisations (NGOs); while at the community-level, the Global Fund’s financing of civil societal institutions has encouraged the emergence of new civic movements, participation, and the creation of new municipal participatory institutions designed to monitor the disbursement of funds for Global Fund grants. Conclusions Global Fund financing can help deepen health governance at multiple levels. Future work will need to explore how

  4. The effects of Global Fund financing on health governance in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gómez Eduardo J

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objectives The impact of donors, such as national government (bi-lateral, private sector, and individual financial (philanthropic contributions, on domestic health policies of developing nations has been the subject of scholarly discourse. Little is known, however, about the impact of global financial initiatives, such as the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, on policies and health governance of countries receiving funding from such initiatives. Methods This study employs a qualitative methodological design based on a single case study: Brazil. Analysis at national, inter-governmental and community levels is based on in-depth interviews with the Global Fund and the Brazilian Ministry of Health and civil societal activists. Primary research is complemented with information from printed media, reports, journal articles, and books, which were used to deepen our analysis while providing supporting evidence. Results Our analysis suggests that in Brazil, Global Fund financing has helped to positively transform health governance at three tiers of analysis: the national-level, inter-governmental-level, and community-level. At the national-level, Global Fund financing has helped to increased political attention and commitment to relatively neglected diseases, such as tuberculosis, while harmonizing intra-bureaucratic relationships; at the inter-governmental-level, Global Fund financing has motivated the National Tuberculosis Programme to strengthen its ties with state and municipal health departments, and non-governmental organisations (NGOs; while at the community-level, the Global Fund’s financing of civil societal institutions has encouraged the emergence of new civic movements, participation, and the creation of new municipal participatory institutions designed to monitor the disbursement of funds for Global Fund grants. Conclusions Global Fund financing can help deepen health governance at multiple levels. Future work

  5. Vertical and horizontal equity of funding for malaria control: a global multisource funding analysis for 2006-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrenho, Eliana; Miraldo, Marisa; Shaikh, Mujaheed; Atun, Rifat

    2017-01-01

    International and domestic funding for malaria is critically important to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Its equitable distribution is key in ensuring that the available, scarce, resources are deployed efficiently for improved progress and a sustained response that enables eradication. We used concentration curves and concentration indices to assess inequalities in malaria funding by different donors across countries, measuring both horizontal and vertical equity. Horizontal equity assesses whether funding is distributed in proportion to health needs, whereas vertical equity examines whether unequal economic needs are addressed by appropriately unequal funding. We computed the Health Inequity Index and the Kakwani Index to assess the former and the latter, respectively. We used data from the World Bank, Global Fund, Unicef, President's Malaria Initiative and the Malaria Atlas Project to assess the distribution of funding against need for 94 countries. National gross domestic product per capita was used as a proxy for economic need and 'population-at-risk' for health need. The level and direction of inequity varies across funding sources. Unicef and the President's Malaria Initiative were the most horizontally inequitable ( pro-poor ). Inequity as shown by the Health Inequity Index for Unicef decreased from -0.40 (P0.10) in 2006 to -0.38 (P<0.05) in 2008, and decreased to -0.36 (P<0.10) in 2010. Domestic funding was inequitable ( pro-rich ) with inequity increasing from 0.28 (P<0.01) in 2006 to 0.39 (P<0.01) in 2009, and then decreasing to 0.22 (P<0.10) in 2010. Funding from the World Bank and the Global Fund was distributed proportionally according to need. In terms of vertical inequity, all sources were progressive: Unicef and the President's Malaria Initiative were the most progressive with the Kakwani Indices ranging from -0.97 (P<0.01) to -1.29 (P<0.01), and -0.90 (P<0.01) to -1.10 (P<0.01), respectively. Our results suggest that external funding of

  6. Vertical and horizontal equity of funding for malaria control: a global multisource funding analysis for 2006–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrenho, Eliana; Miraldo, Marisa; Shaikh, Mujaheed; Atun, Rifat

    2017-01-01

    Background International and domestic funding for malaria is critically important to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Its equitable distribution is key in ensuring that the available, scarce, resources are deployed efficiently for improved progress and a sustained response that enables eradication. Methods We used concentration curves and concentration indices to assess inequalities in malaria funding by different donors across countries, measuring both horizontal and vertical equity. Horizontal equity assesses whether funding is distributed in proportion to health needs, whereas vertical equity examines whether unequal economic needs are addressed by appropriately unequal funding. We computed the Health Inequity Index and the Kakwani Index to assess the former and the latter, respectively. We used data from the World Bank, Global Fund, Unicef, President’s Malaria Initiative and the Malaria Atlas Project to assess the distribution of funding against need for 94 countries. National gross domestic product per capita was used as a proxy for economic need and ‘population-at-risk’ for health need. Findings The level and direction of inequity varies across funding sources. Unicef and the President’s Malaria Initiative were the most horizontally inequitable (pro-poor). Inequity as shown by the Health Inequity Index for Unicef decreased from −0.40 (P0.10) in 2006 to −0.38 (P<0.05) in 2008, and decreased to −0.36 (P<0.10) in 2010. Domestic funding was inequitable (pro-rich) with inequity increasing from 0.28 (P<0.01) in 2006 to 0.39 (P<0.01) in 2009, and then decreasing to 0.22 (P<0.10) in 2010. Funding from the World Bank and the Global Fund was distributed proportionally according to need. In terms of vertical inequity, all sources were progressive: Unicef and the President’s Malaria Initiative were the most progressive with the Kakwani Indices ranging from −0.97 (P<0.01) to −1.29 (P<0.01), and −0.90 (P<0.01) to −1.10 (P<0

  7. Development Innovation Fund for Global Health Research | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The Development Innovation Fund (DIF) will support scientists and scientific institutions ... fundraising and enabling the participation of developing world scientists and ... Mozambique's health sector is dealing with system-wide challenges.

  8. Costs of eliminating malaria and the impact of the global fund in 34 countries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brittany Zelman

    Full Text Available International financing for malaria increased more than 18-fold between 2000 and 2011; the largest source came from The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund. Countries have made substantial progress, but achieving elimination requires sustained finances to interrupt transmission and prevent reintroduction. Since 2011, global financing for malaria has declined, fueling concerns that further progress will be impeded, especially for current malaria-eliminating countries that may face resurgent malaria if programs are disrupted.This study aims to 1 assess past total and Global Fund funding to the 34 current malaria-eliminating countries, and 2 estimate their future funding needs to achieve malaria elimination and prevent reintroduction through 2030.Historical funding is assessed against trends in country-level malaria annual parasite incidences (APIs and income per capita. Following Kizewski et al. (2007, program costs to eliminate malaria and prevent reintroduction through 2030 are estimated using a deterministic model. The cost parameters are tailored to a package of interventions aimed at malaria elimination and prevention of reintroduction.The majority of Global Fund-supported countries experiencing increases in total funding from 2005 to 2010 coincided with reductions in malaria APIs and also overall GNI per capita average annual growth. The total amount of projected funding needed for the current malaria-eliminating countries to achieve elimination and prevent reintroduction through 2030 is approximately US$8.5 billion, or about $1.84 per person at risk per year (PPY (ranging from $2.51 PPY in 2014 to $1.43 PPY in 2030.Although external donor funding, particularly from the Global Fund, has been key for many malaria-eliminating countries, sustained and sufficient financing is critical for furthering global malaria elimination. Projected cost estimates for elimination provide policymakers with an indication of the

  9. Investing for Impact: The Global Fund Approach to Measurement of AIDS Response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Suman; Zorzi, Nathalie

    2017-07-01

    The Global Fund raises and invests nearly US$4 billion a year to support programs run in more than 140 countries. The Global Fund strategy 2012-2016 is focused on "Investing for Impact". In order to accomplish this, timely and accurate data are needed to inform strategies and prioritize activities to achieve greater coverage with quality services. Monitoring and evaluation is intrinsic to the Global Fund's system of performance-based funding. The Global Fund invests in strengthening measurement and reporting of results at all stages of the grant cycle. The Global Fund approach to measurement is based on three key principles-(1) simplified reporting: the Global Fund has updated its measurement guidance to focus on impact, coverage and quality with the use of a harmonized set of indicators. (2) Supporting data systems-based on a common framework developed and supported by partners, it promotes investment in five common data systems: routine reporting including HMIS; Surveys-population based and risk group surveys; Analysis, reviews and transparency; Administrative and financial data sources; and, Vital registration systems. (3) Strengthen data use: the Global Fund funding encourages use of data at all levels-national, subnational and site level. Countries do not automatically prioritize M&E but when guidance, tools and investments are available, there is high level utilization of M&E systems in program design, planning, implementation, and results reporting. An in-depth analysis of the available data helps the Global Fund and countries to direct investments towards interventions where impact could be achieved and focus on target population groups and geographic areas that are most affected.

  10. Analyzing media coverage of the global fund diseases compared with lower funded diseases (childhood pneumonia, diarrhea and measles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David L Hudacek

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Pneumonia, diarrhea and measles are the leading causes of death in children worldwide, but have a disproportionately low share of international funding and media attention. In comparison, AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria--diseases that also significantly affect children--receive considerably more funding and have relatively high media coverage. This study investigates the potential relationship between media agenda setting and funding levels in the context of the actual burden of disease. METHODS: The news databases Lexis Nexis, Factiva, and Google News Archive were searched for the diseases AIDS, TB and Malaria and for lower funded pediatric diseases: childhood pneumonia, diarrhea, and measles. A sample of news articles across geographic regions was also analyzed using a qualitative narrative frame analysis of how the media stories were told. RESULTS: There were significantly more articles addressing the Global Fund diseases compared to the lower funded pediatric diseases between 1981 and 2008 (1,344,150 versus 291,865 articles. There were also notable differences in the framing of media narratives: 1 There was a high proportion of articles with the primary purpose of raising awareness for AIDS, TB and malaria (46.2% compared with only 17.9% of the pediatric disease articles. 2 Nearly two-thirds (61.5% of the AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria articles used a human rights, legal or social justice frame, compared with 46.2% for the lower funded pediatric disease articles, which primarily used an ethical or moral frame. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that lower funded pediatric diseases are presented differently in the media, both quantitatively and qualitatively, than higher funded, higher profile diseases.

  11. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria's investments in harm reduction through the rounds-based funding model (2002-2014)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bridge, Jamie; Hunter, Benjamin M; Albers, Eliot

    2016-01-01

    investment of US$ 620. million. Two-thirds of this budgeted amount was for interventions in the "comprehensive package" defined by the United Nations. 91% of the identified amount was for Eastern Europe and Asia. Conclusion: This study represents an updated, comprehensive assessment of Global Fund...... and inequitable access to these services and face widespread stigma and discrimination. In 2013, the Global Fund launched a new funding model-signalling the end of the previous rounds-based model that had operated since its founding in 2002. This study updates previous analyses to assess Global Fund investments...... investments in harm reduction from its founding (2002) until the start of the new funding model (2014). It also highlights the overall shortfall of harm reduction funding, with the estimated global need being US$ 2.3. billion for harm reduction in 2015 alone. Using this baseline, the Global Fund must...

  12. Funding for malaria control 2006–2010: A comprehensive global assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pigott David M

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The last decade has seen a dramatic increase in international and domestic funding for malaria control, coupled with important declines in malaria incidence and mortality in some regions of the world. As the ongoing climate of financial uncertainty places strains on investment in global health, there is an increasing need to audit the origin, recipients and geographical distribution of funding for malaria control relative to populations at risk of the disease. Methods A comprehensive review of malaria control funding from international donors, bilateral sources and national governments was undertaken to reconstruct total funding by country for each year 2006 to 2010. Regions at risk from Plasmodium falciparum and/or Plasmodium vivax transmission were identified using global risk maps for 2010 and funding was assessed relative to populations at risk. Those nations with unequal funding relative to a regional average were identified and potential explanations highlighted, such as differences in national policies, government inaction or donor neglect. Results US$8.9 billion was disbursed for malaria control and elimination programmes over the study period. Africa had the largest levels of funding per capita-at-risk, with most nations supported primarily by international aid. Countries of the Americas, in contrast, were supported typically through national government funding. Disbursements and government funding in Asia were far lower with a large variation in funding patterns. Nations with relatively high and low levels of funding are discussed. Conclusions Global funding for malaria control is substantially less than required. Inequity in funding is pronounced in some regions particularly when considering the distinct goals of malaria control and malaria elimination. Efforts to sustain and increase international investment in malaria control should be informed by evidence-based assessment of funding equity.

  13. The Global Fund's paradigm of oversight, monitoring, and results in Mozambique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Ashley; Cordon, Roberto; Told, Michaela; de Savigny, Don; Kickbusch, Ilona; Tanner, Marcel

    2017-12-12

    The Global Fund is one of the largest actors in global health. In 2015 the Global Fund was credited with disbursing close to 10 % of all development assistance for health. In 2011 it began a reform process in response to internal reviews following allegations of recipients' misuse of funds. Reforms have focused on grant application processes thus far while the core structures and paradigm have remained intact. We report results of discussions with key stakeholders on the Global Fund, its paradigm of oversight, monitoring, and results in Mozambique. We conducted 38 semi-structured in-depth interviews in Maputo, Mozambique and members of the Global Fund Board and Secretariat in Switzerland. In-country stakeholders were representatives from Global Fund country structures (eg. Principle Recipient), the Ministry of Health, health or development attachés bilateral and multilateral agencies, consultants, and the NGO coordinating body. Thematic coding revealed concerns about the combination of weak country oversight with stringent and cumbersome requirements for monitoring and evaluation linked to performance-based financing. Analysis revealed that despite the changes associated with the New Funding Model, respondents in both Maputo and Geneva firmly believe challenges remain in Global Fund's structure and paradigm. The lack of a country office has many negative downstream effects including reliance on in-country partners and ineffective coordination. Due to weak managerial and absorptive capacity, more oversight is required than is afforded by country team visits. In-country partners provide much needed support for Global Fund recipients, but roles, responsibilities, and accountability must be clearly defined for a successful long-term partnership. Furthermore, decision-makers in Geneva recognize in-country coordination as vital to successful implementation, and partners welcome increased Global Fund engagement. To date, there are no institutional requirements for

  14. 76 FR 62475 - Global X Funds, et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-07

    ..., to effect changes in the Portfolio Securities as a result of the rebalancing of an Underlying Index... Shares. 5. Each Fund will consist of a portfolio of securities and other instruments (``Portfolio... purchaser of a portfolio of securities (the ``Deposit Securities''), designated by the Adviser, together...

  15. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria: 10 years on.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanefeld, Johanna

    2014-02-01

    The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (the Global Fund or GFATM) is a private public partnership aimed at leveraging and providing funding for the three focal diseases outlined in its title. Set up in 2002, the fund was part of a new 'breed' of players in the field of global health, combining skills from bilateral and multilateral agencies with private sector and civil society. Highly innovative in its structure and funding model, the Global Fund's secretariat in Geneva provides grants directly to one or more organisations - not just governments - in recipient countries. Despite great successes, including scaling up treatment for AIDS to reach 4.2 million people, the fund has been the subject of intense debate. This includes discussion of its impact on health systems and allegations of financial irregularities among recipients in four countries. The organisation has now emerged with a new strategy, funding model and executive director. This paper charts its history, discusses some of the challenges faced, drawing on fieldwork conducted by the author in 2007-08, and reflects on recent changes and the road ahead.

  16. Sovereign Wealth Funds as Global Economic and Political Actors: Defining of Notions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Андрей Алексеевич Кинякин

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The article devoted to consideration of sovereign wealth funds (SWF as economic and political actors as well as analysis of different forms of their activity in the contemporary global economics and politics. The author comes to the conclusion, that sovereign wealth funds play not only the role of providers of interests of the national states, but being the special purpose vehicles (SPV, designated to fulfill the different tasks, turn out to be the new type of global actors.

  17. Financing the World Health Organisation: global importance of extrabudgetary funds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, J P; Mogedal, S; Kruse, S; Lee, K; Walt, G; de Wilde, K

    1996-03-01

    From 1948, when WHO was established, the Organisation has relied on the assessed contributions of its member states for its regular budget. However, since the early 1980s the WHO World Health Assembly has had a policy of zero real growth for the regular budget and has had to rely increasingly, therefore, on attracting additional voluntary contributions, called extrabudgetary funds (EBFs). Between 1984-85 and 1992-93 the real value of the EBFs apparently increased by more than 60% and in the 1990-91 biennium expenditure of extrabudgetary funds exceeded the regular budget for the first time. All WHO programmes, except the Assembly and the Executive Board, receive some EBFs. However, three cosponsored and six large regular programmes account for about 70% of these EBFs, mainly for vertically managed programmes in the areas of disease control, health promotion and human reproduction. Eighty percent of all EBFs received by WHO for assisted activities have been contributed by donor governments, with the top 10 countries (in Europe, North America and Japan) contributing about 90% of this total, whereas the UN funds and the World Bank have donated only about 6% of the total to date. By contrast, about 70% of the regular budget expenditure has been for organisational expenses and for the support of programmes in the area of health systems. Despite the fact that the more successful programmes are heavily reliant on EBFs, there are strong indications that donors, particularly donor governments, are reluctant to maintain the current level of funding without major reforms in the leadership and management of the Organisation. This has major implications for WHO's international role as the leading UN specialised agency for health.

  18. Diagnostic Accuracy of Global Pharma Health Fund Minilab™ in Assessing Pharmacopoeial Quality of Antimicrobials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Hui; Ba-Thein, William

    2018-01-01

    Global Pharma Health Fund (GPHF) Minilab™, a semi-quantitative thin-layer chromatography (TLC)-based commercially available test kit, is widely used in drug quality surveillance globally, but its diagnostic accuracy is unclear. We investigated the diagnostic accuracy of Minilab system for antimicrobials, using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) as reference standard. Following the Minilab protocols and the Pharmacopoeia of the People's Republic of China protocols, Minilab-TLC and HPLC were used to test five common antimicrobials (506 batches) for relative concentration of active pharmaceutical ingredients. The prevalence of poor-quality antimicrobials determined, respectively, by Minilab TLC and HPLC was amoxicillin (0% versus 14.9%), azithromycin (0% versus 17.4%), cefuroxime axetil (14.3% versus 0%), levofloxacin (0% versus 3.0%), and metronidazole (0% versus 38.0%). The Minilab TLC had false-positive and false-negative detection rates of 2.6% (13/506) and 15.2% (77/506) accordingly, resulting in the following test characteristics: sensitivity 0%, specificity 97.0%, positive predictive value 0, negative predictive value 0.8, positive likelihood ratio 0, negative likelihood ratio 1.0, diagnostic odds ratio 0, and adjusted diagnostic odds ratio 0.2. This study demonstrates unsatisfying diagnostic accuracy of Minilab system in screening poor-quality antimicrobials of common use. Using Minilab as a stand-alone system for monitoring drug quality should be reconsidered.

  19. Health workforce issues and the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria: an analytical review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dal Poz Mario R

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recent studies have shown evidence of a direct and positive causal link between the number of health workers and health outcomes. Several studies have identified an adequate health workforce as one of the key ingredients to achieving improved health outcomes. Global health initiatives are faced with human resources issues as a major, system-wide constraint. This article explores how the Global Fund addresses the challenges of a health workforce bottleneck to the successful implementation of priority disease programmes. Possibilities for investment in human resources in the Global Fund's policy documents and guidelines are reviewed. This is followed by an in-depth study of 35 Global Fund proposals from five African countries: Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi and Tanzania. The discussion presents specific human resources interventions that can be found in proposals. Finally, the comments on human resources interventions in the Global Fund's Technical Review Panel and the budget allocation for human resources for health were examined. Policy documents and guidelines of the Global Fund foster taking account of human resources constraints in recipient countries and interventions to address them. However, the review of actual proposals clearly shows that countries do not often take advantage of their opportunities and focus mainly on short-term, in-service training in their human resources components. The comments of the Technical Review Panel on proposed health system-strengthening interventions reveal a struggle between the Global Fund's goal to fight the three targeted diseases, on the one hand, and the need to strengthen health systems as a prerequisite for success, on the other. In realizing the opportunities the Global Fund provides for human resources interventions, countries should go beyond short-term objectives and link their activities to a long-term development of their human resources for health.

  20. Global Fund investments in human resources for health: innovation and missed opportunities for health systems strengthening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowser, Diana; Sparkes, Susan Powers; Mitchell, Andrew; Bossert, Thomas J; Bärnighausen, Till; Gedik, Gulin; Atun, Rifat

    2014-12-01

    Since the early 2000s, there have been large increases in donor financing of human resources for health (HRH), yet few studies have examined their effects on health systems. To determine the scope and impact of investments in HRH by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund), the largest investor in HRH outside national governments. We used mixed research methodology to analyse budget allocations and expenditures for HRH, including training, for 138 countries receiving money from the Global Fund during funding rounds 1-7. From these aggregate figures, we then identified 27 countries with the largest funding for human resources and training and examined all HRH-related performance indicators tracked in Global Fund grant reports. We used the results of these quantitative analyses to select six countries with substantial funding and varied characteristics-representing different regions and income levels for further in-depth study: Bangladesh (South and West Asia, low income), Ethiopia (Eastern Africa, low income), Honduras (Latin America, lower-middle income), Indonesia (South and West Asia, lower-middle income), Malawi (Southern Africa, low income) and Ukraine (Eastern Europe and Central Asia, upper-middle income). We used qualitative methods to gather information in each of the six countries through 159 interviews with key informants from 83 organizations. Using comparative case-study analysis, we examined Global Fund's interactions with other donors, as well as its HRH support and co-ordination within national health systems. Around US$1.4 billion (23% of total US$5.1 billion) of grant funding was allocated to HRH by the 138 Global Fund recipient countries. In funding rounds 1-7, the six countries we studied in detail were awarded a total of 47 grants amounting to US$1.2 billion and HRH budgets of US$276 million, of which approximately half were invested in disease-focused in-service and short-term training activities. Countries employed

  1. QUALITY-RELATED FUNDING IN ROMANIAN HIGHER EDUCATION THROUGHOUT 2003 – 2011: A GLOBAL ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel-Alexandru Vîiu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article explores quality-related funding and its global outcomes in the context of Romanian higher education by focusing on the funding allocations provided to public universities throughout a period of nine years based on their institutional performance on the quality indicators integrated in the funding algorithm. Global funding allocations between universities are analysed and a summative appraisal for the entire nine-year window is provided. The article also explores the relation between quality- related funding, institutional disciplinary profiles and the results of a comprehensive evaluation conducted in 2011 by the Ministry of Education to complete a classification of the universities. The main findings indicate a low overall impact of qualityrelated funding for many institutions, but also a clear pattern in which universities focused on science, technology, engineering and mathematics overwhelmingly outperformed mixed institutions, as well as those focused on humanities, arts and social sciences. Furthermore, the global quality-related funding outcomes of the 2003 – 2011 period studied in the paper are shown to be significantly associated with the results of the 2011 classification

  2. Global Fund collusion with liquor giant is a clear conflict of interest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matzopoulos, Richard; Parry, Charles D H; Corrigall, Joanne; Myers, Jonny; Goldstein, Sue; London, Leslie

    2012-01-01

    Alcohol is the third leading contributor to death and disability in South Africa, where SABMiller is the major supplier of malt beer, the most popular beverage consumed. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund) has recently included SABMiller as a recipient of funding for an education intervention aimed at minimizing alcohol-related harm, including HIV prevention, among men in drinking establishments. Global Fund support for this initiative is cause for concern. It is debatable whether these men are the best target group for the intervention, whether a drinking establishment is the best location, and whether the educational intervention itself is effective. Our experience is that the liquor industry is inclined to support alcohol interventions that will not affect drinking rates at a population level. These interventions allow the industry to simultaneously fulfil social and legal obligations to address the harmful use of alcohol while ensuring that sales and profits are maintained. Providing funding for a highly profitable industry that could afford to fund its own interventions also reduces the funds available for less well-resourced organizations. Do we take it that the problem of "corporate capture" has now spread to one of the largest health funders in the world?

  3. CERN signs up to the Global Digital Solidarity Fund

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    From its championing of the cause of open access to scientific publications to its promotion of freeware and support for research and training networks in Africa, CERN has recently stepped up its initiatives aimed at building an information society based on the principles of equality and solidarity. This commitment, reiterated at the recent World Summit on the Information Society, has been reinforced by a brand new initiative - from 1st January 2006, CERN will be applying the digital solidarity 'one percent'. This means that all calls for tenders relating to computer and telecommunications goods or services will contain a clause whereby the successful bidder will have to pay 1% of the contractual amount into the Digital Solidarity Fund, which finances projects aimed at bridging the digital divide (www.dsf-fsn.org). The 1% will be levied on the contractor's profit margin and, in return, the firm will be awarded the 'digital solidarity' label. The digital solidarity clause is also known as the 'Geneva Principl...

  4. Adaptation in Africa: the global failure to deliver on funding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon; Chandani, Achala

    2008-12-15

    Will Africa be steamrolled by climate change? The continent harbours 33 of the Least Developed Countries, is heavily reliant on agriculture and has limited economic resources to finance adaptation. Its geographic position and high sensitivity to climatic variability make it vulnerable. Large swathes of Africa already see more frequent and severe flooding and droughts, shrinking agricultural production, the spread of diseases and the rise of conflict over scarce resources. Meanwhile, African governments are poorly equipped to respond. Overcoming these challenges demands concerted international effort – yet a huge gap yawns between the global promises, and timely action on them.

  5. Global skin colour prediction from DNA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Susan; Chaitanya, Lakshmi; Breslin, Krystal; Muralidharan, Charanya; Bronikowska, Agnieszka; Pospiech, Ewelina; Koller, Julia; Kovatsi, Leda; Wollstein, Andreas; Branicki, Wojciech; Liu, Fan; Kayser, Manfred

    2017-07-01

    Human skin colour is highly heritable and externally visible with relevance in medical, forensic, and anthropological genetics. Although eye and hair colour can already be predicted with high accuracies from small sets of carefully selected DNA markers, knowledge about the genetic predictability of skin colour is limited. Here, we investigate the skin colour predictive value of 77 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 37 genetic loci previously associated with human pigmentation using 2025 individuals from 31 global populations. We identified a minimal set of 36 highly informative skin colour predictive SNPs and developed a statistical prediction model capable of skin colour prediction on a global scale. Average cross-validated prediction accuracies expressed as area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) ± standard deviation were 0.97 ± 0.02 for Light, 0.83 ± 0.11 for Dark, and 0.96 ± 0.03 for Dark-Black. When using a 5-category, this resulted in 0.74 ± 0.05 for Very Pale, 0.72 ± 0.03 for Pale, 0.73 ± 0.03 for Intermediate, 0.87±0.1 for Dark, and 0.97 ± 0.03 for Dark-Black. A comparative analysis in 194 independent samples from 17 populations demonstrated that our model outperformed a previously proposed 10-SNP-classifier approach with AUCs rising from 0.79 to 0.82 for White, comparable at the intermediate level of 0.63 and 0.62, respectively, and a large increase from 0.64 to 0.92 for Black. Overall, this study demonstrates that the chosen DNA markers and prediction model, particularly the 5-category level; allow skin colour predictions within and between continental regions for the first time, which will serve as a valuable resource for future applications in forensic and anthropologic genetics.

  6. How Thailand's greater convergence created sustainable funding for emerging health priorities caused by globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Naowarut Charoenca; Nipapun Kungskulniti; Jeremiah Mock; Stephen Hamann; Prakit Vathesatogkit

    2015-01-01

    Background: Global health is shifting gradually from a limited focus on individual communicable disease goals to the formulation of broader sustainable health development goals. A major impediment to this shift is that most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have not established adequate sustainable funding for health promotion and health infrastructure.Objective: In this article, we analyze how Thailand, a middle-income country, created a mechanism for sustainable funding for health.De...

  7. Global Fund financing of public-private mix approaches for delivery of tuberculosis care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lal, S S; Uplekar, Mukund; Katz, Itamar; Lonnroth, Knut; Komatsu, Ryuichi; Yesudian Dias, Hannah Monica; Atun, Rifat

    2011-06-01

    To map the extent and scope of public-private mix (PPM) interventions in tuberculosis (TB) control programmes supported by the Global Fund. We reviewed the Global Fund's official documents and data to analyse the distribution, characteristics and budgets of PPM approaches within Global Fund supported TB grants in recipient countries between 2003 and 2008. We supplemented this analysis with data on contribution of PPM to TB case notifications in 14 countries reported to World Health Organization in 2009, for the preparation of the global TB control report. Fifty-eight of 93 countries and multi-country recipients of Global Fund-supported TB grants had PPM activities in 2008. Engagement with 'for-profit' private sector was more prevalent in South Asia while involvement of prison health services has been common in Eastern Europe and central Asia. In the Middle East and North Africa, involving non-governmental organizations seemed to be the focus. Average and median spending on PPM within grants was 10% and 5% respectively, ranging from 0.03% to 69% of the total grant budget. In China, India, Nigeria and the Philippines, PPM contributed to detecting more than 25% TB cases while maintaining high treatment success rates. In spite of evidence of cost-effectiveness, PPM constitutes only a modest part of overall TB control activities. Scaling up PPM across countries could contribute to expanding access to TB care, increasing case detection, improving treatment outcomes and help achieve the global TB control targets. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  8. THE GLOBAL GOVERNANCE PROBLEM AND THE ROLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sidorova E. A.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Currently, globalization begins to permeate more and more areas of human activity, therefore it is important question of the complex mechanisms and principles of global governance formation.The article analyzes the essence, subjects and mechanisms for the implementation of the global economic governance. Moreover, it investigates the role and current state of the International Monetary Fund (IMF in the global economy. In conclusion, it clarifies the relationship of the IMF and processes of global governance. Research has shown that it is necessary to create within the IMF more representative, economically and politically balanced system of global governance of the world monetary and financial relations as part of the emerging mechanisms of global economic governance. This article extends the knowledge about the features of the IMF in the forming global governance.

  9. An alternative mechanism for international health aid: evaluating a Global Social Protection Fund.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Sanjay; Stuckler, David; McKee, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Several public health groups have called for the creation of a global fund for 'social protection'-a fund that produces the international equivalent of domestic tax collection and safety net systems to finance care for the ill and disabled and related health costs. All participating countries would pay into a global fund based on a metric of their ability to pay and withdraw from the common pool based on a metric of their need for funds. We assessed how alternative strategies and metrics by which to operate such a fund would affect its size and impact on health system financing. Using a mathematical model, we found that common targets for health funding in low-income countries require higher levels of aid expenditures than presently distributed. Some mechanisms exist that may incentivize reduction of domestic health inequalities, and direct most funds towards the poorest populations. Payments from high-income countries are also likely to decrease over time as middle-income countries' economies grow.

  10. Promoting equitable global health research: a policy analysis of the Canadian funding landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plamondon, Katrina; Walters, Dylan; Campbell, Sandy; Hatfield, Jennifer

    2017-08-29

    Recognising radical shifts in the global health research (GHR) environment, participants in a 2013 deliberative dialogue called for careful consideration of equity-centred principles that should inform Canadian funding polices. This study examined the existing funding structures and policies of Canadian and international funders to inform the future design of a responsive GHR funding landscape. We used a three-pronged analytical framework to review the ideas, interests and institutions implicated in publically accessible documents relevant to GHR funding. These data included published literature and organisational documents (e.g. strategic plans, progress reports, granting policies) from Canadian and other comparator funders. We then used a deliberative approach to develop recommendations with the research team, advisors, industry informants and low- and middle-income country (LMIC) partners. In Canada, major GHR funders invest an estimated CA$90 M per annum; however, the post-2008 re-organization of funding structures and policies resulted in an uncoordinated and inefficient Canadian strategy. Australia, Denmark, the European Union, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States of America invest proportionately more in GHR than Canada. Each of these countries has a national strategic plan for global health, some of which have dedicated benchmarks for GHR funding and policy to allow funds to be held by partners outside of Canada. Key constraints to equitable GHR funding included (1) funding policies that restrict financial and cost burden aspects of partnering for GHR in LMICs; and (2) challenges associated with the development of effective governance mechanisms. There were, however, some Canadian innovations in funding research that demonstrated both unconventional and equitable approaches to supporting GHR in Canada and abroad. Among the most promising were found in the International Development Research Centre and the (no longer active) Global Health

  11. Human Rights and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jürgens, Ralf; Lim, Hyeyoung; Timberlake, Susan; Smith, Matthew

    2017-01-01

    Abstract The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria was created to greatly expand access to basic services to address the three diseases in its name. From its beginnings, its governance embodied some human rights principles: civil society is represented on its board, and the country coordination mechanisms that oversee funding requests to the Global Fund include representatives of people affected by the diseases. The Global Fund’s core strategies recognize that the health services it supports would not be effective or cost-effective without efforts to reduce human rights-related barriers to access and utilization of health services, particularly those faced by socially marginalized and criminalized persons. Basic human rights elements were written into Global Fund grant agreements, and various technical support measures encouraged the inclusion in funding requests of programs to reduce human rights-related barriers. A five-year initiative to provide intensive technical and financial support for the scaling up of programs to reduce these barriers in 20 countries is ongoing. PMID:29302175

  12. Investing to end epidemics: the role of the Global Fund to control TB by 2030.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunii, Osamu; Yassin, Mohammed A; Wandwalo, Eliud

    2016-03-01

    The Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria provides over three-quarters of all international financing towards TB programs with US$4.7 billion disbursed, supporting provision of treatment for 13.2 million patients with smear-positive TB and 210 000 patients with multidrug-resistant TB in over 100 countries since 2002. In 2013, the Global Fund launched a new funding model that, among others, is advancing strategic investments to maximize impact, addressing 'missing' TB cases, enhancing a synergistic response to TB/HIV dual epidemics, and building resilient and sustainable systems for health. A new Global Fund Strategy is under development through consultation with various stakeholders, with which the Global Fund will work to play a more catalytic role and foster innovations to end the TB epidemic. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Global fund financing to the 34 malaria-eliminating countries under the new funding model 2014-2017: an analysis of national allocations and regional grants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelman, Brittany; Melgar, Melissa; Larson, Erika; Phillips, Allison; Shretta, Rima

    2016-02-25

    The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (GFATM) has been the largest financial supporter of malaria since 2002. In 2011, the GFATM transitioned to a new funding model (NFM), which prioritizes grants to high burden, lower income countries. This shift raises concerns that some low endemic countries, dependent on GFATM financing to achieve their malaria elimination goals, would receive less funding under the NFM. This study aims to understand the projected increase or decrease in national and regional funding from the GFATM's NFM to the 34 malaria-eliminating countries. Average annual disbursements under the old funding model were compared to average annual national allocations for all eligible 34 malaria-eliminating countries for the period of 2014-2017. Regional grant funding to countries that are due to receive additional support was then included in the comparison and analysed. Estimated funding ranges for the countries under the NFM were calculated using the proposed national allocation plus the possible adjustments and additional funding. Finally, the minimum and maximum funding estimates were compared to average annual disbursements under the old funding model. A cumulative 31 % decrease in national financing from the GFATM is expected for the countries included in this analysis. Regional grants augment funding for almost half of the eliminating countries, and increase the cumulative percent change in GTFAM funding to 32 %, though proposed activities may not be funded directly through national malaria programmes. However, if countries receive the maximum possible funding, 46 % of the countries included in this analysis would receive less than they received under the previous funding model. Many malaria-eliminating countries have projected national declines in funding from the GFATM under the NFM. While regional grants enhance funding for eliminating countries, they may not be able to fill country-level funding gaps for local commodities and

  14. STAKEHOLDERS’ OPINIONS AND EXPECTATIONS OF THE GLOBAL FUND AND THEIR POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galárraga, Omar; Bertozzi, Stefano M.

    2009-01-01

    Objective To analyze stakeholder opinions and expectations of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, and to discuss their potential economic and financial implications. Design The Global Fund commissioned an independent study, the “360° Stakeholder Assessment,” to canvas feedback on the organization’s reputation and performance with an on-line survey of 909 respondents representing major stakeholders worldwide. We created a proxy for expectations based on categorical responses for specific Global Fund attributes’ importance to the stakeholders, and current perceived performance. Methods Using multivariate regression, we analyzed 23 unfulfilled expectations related to: resource mobilization; impact measurement; harmonization and inclusion; effectiveness of the Global Fund partner environment; and portfolio characteristics. The independent variables are personal- and regional-level characteristics that affect expectations. Results The largest unfulfilled expectations relate to: mobilization of private sector resources; efficiency in disbursing funds; and assurance that people affected by the three diseases are reached. Stakeholders involved with the Fund through the Country Coordinating Mechanisms, those working in multilateral organizations, and persons living with HIV are more likely to have unfulfilled expectations. In contrast, higher levels of involvement with the Fund correlate with fulfilled expectations. Stakeholders living in sub-Saharan Africa were less likely to have their expectations met. Conclusions Stakeholders unfulfilled expectations result largely from factors external to them, but also from factors over which they have influence. In particular, attributes related to partnership score poorly even though stakeholders have influence in that area. Joint efforts to address perceived performance gaps may improve future performance, and positively influence investment levels and economic viability. PMID:18664957

  15. US Global Change Research Program Distributed Cost Budget Interagency Funds Transfer from DOE to NSF

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uhle, Maria [National Science Foundation (NSF), Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-09-22

    These funds were transferred from DOE to NSF as DOE's contribution to the U.S. Global Change Research Program in support of 4 internationalnactivities/programs as approved by the U.S. Global Change Research Program on 14 March 2014. The programs are the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, the DIVERSITAS programme, and the World Climate Research Program. All program awards ended as of 09-23-2015.

  16. Lunar Global Heat Flow: Predictions and Constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegler, M.; Williams, J. P.; Paige, D. A.; Feng, J.

    2017-12-01

    The global thermal state of the Moon provides fundamental information on its bulk composition and interior evolution. The Moon is known to have a highly asymmetric surface composition [e.g. Lawrence et al., 2003] and crustal thickness [Wieczorek et al.,2012], which is suspected to result from interior asymmetries [Wieczorek and Phillips, 2000; Laneuville et al., 2013]. This is likely to cause a highly asymmetric surface heat flux, both past and present. Our understanding the thermal evolution and composition of the bulk moon therefore requires a global picture of the present lunar thermal state, well beyond our two-point Apollo era measurement. As on the on the Earth, heat flow measurements need to be taken in carefully selected locations to truly characterize the state of the planet's interior. Future surface heat flux and seismic observations will be affected by the presence of interior temperature and crustal radiogenic anomalies, so placement of such instruments is critically important for understanding the lunar interior. The unfortunate coincidence that Apollo geophysical measurements lie areas within or directly abutting the highly radiogenic, anomalously thin-crusted Procellarum region highlights the importance of location for in situ geophysical study [e.g. Siegler and Smrekar, 2014]. Here we present the results of new models of global lunar geothermal heat flux. We synthesize data from several recent missions to constrain lunar crustal composition, thickness and density to provide global predictions of the surface heat flux of the Moon. We also discuss implications from new surface heat flux constraints from the LRO Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment and Chang'E 2 Microwave Radiometer. We will identify areas with the highest uncertainty to provide insight on the placement of future landed geophysical missions, such as the proposed Lunar Geophysical Network, to better aim our future exploration of the Moon.

  17. Critical interactions between the Global Fund-supported HIV programs and the health system in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atun, Rifat; Pothapregada, Sai Kumar; Kwansah, Janet; Degbotse, D; Lazarus, Jeffrey V

    2011-08-01

    The support of global health initiatives in recipient countries has been vigorously debated. Critics are concerned that disease-specific programs may be creating vertical and parallel service delivery structures that to some extent undermine health systems. This case study of Ghana aimed to explore how the Global Fund-supported HIV program interacts with the health system there and to map the extent and nature of integration of the national disease program across 6 key health systems functions. Qualitative interviews of national stakeholders were conducted to understand the perceptions of the strengths and weaknesses of the relationship between Global Fund-supported activities and the health system and to identify positive synergies and unintended consequences of integration. Ghana has a well-functioning sector-wide approach to financing its health system, with a strong emphasis on integrated care delivery. Ghana has benefited from US $175 million of approved Global Fund support to address the HIV epidemic, accounting for almost 85% of the National AIDS Control Program budget. Investments in infrastructure, human resources, and commodities have enabled HIV interventions to increase exponentially. Global Fund-supported activities have been well integrated into key health system functions to strengthen them, especially financing, planning, service delivery, and demand generation. Yet, with governance and monitoring and evaluation functions, parallel structures to national systems have emerged, leading to inefficiencies. This case study demonstrates that interactions and integration are highly varied across different health system functions, and strong government leadership has facilitated the integration of Global Fund-supported activities within national programs.

  18. Global Funds: Lessons from a not-too-distant past? | Mkandawire ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cet article effectue une comparaison entre les premières tentatives de lutte contre la pauvreté à travers un développement rural intégré, et les dispositions institutionnelles actuelles permettant de combattre le VIH/SIDA à travers les Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM). Cet article affirme qu'un ...

  19. Long-term costs and health impact of continued global fund support for antiretroviral therapy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Stover (John); E.L. Korenromp (Eline); M. Blakley (Matthew); R. Komatsu (Ryuichi); K.M. Viisainen (Kirsi); L. Bollinger (Lori); R. Atun (Rifat)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractBackground: By the end of 2011 Global Fund investments will be supporting 3.5 million people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 104 low- and middle-income countries. We estimated the cost and health impact of continuing treatment for these patients through 2020. Methods and Findings:

  20. THE ROLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND IN PROMOTING GLOBAL ECONOMIC STABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina HAGIU

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the role that the International Monetary Fund performs in promoting global economic stability. Global economic and financial stability plays a key role in the financial system and the economy as a whole. The increase in the importance of the concept of financial stability by supervisors at both European and global level was concretized by defining a framework for the operationalization of macroprudential policy, together with the establishment of coordination bodies in this field, thus recognizing its role in the mix of established economic policies such as monetary, fiscal or competitive policy.

  1. Critical interactions between the Global Fund-supported HIV programs and the health system in Ghana

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Atun, Rifat; Pothapregada, Sai Kumar; Kwansah, Janet

    2011-01-01

    of the strengths and weaknesses of the relationship between Global Fund-supported activities and the health system and to identify positive synergies and unintended consequences of integration. Ghana has a well-functioning sector-wide approach to financing its health system, with a strong emphasis on integrated......The support of global health initiatives in recipient countries has been vigorously debated. Critics are concerned that disease-specific programs may be creating vertical and parallel service delivery structures that to some extent undermine health systems. This case study of Ghana aimed to explore...... how the Global Fund-supported HIV program interacts with the health system there and to map the extent and nature of integration of the national disease program across 6 key health systems functions. Qualitative interviews of national stakeholders were conducted to understand the perceptions...

  2. The politics and anti-politics of the global fund experiment: understanding partnership and bureaucratic expansion in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, E Michelle; Harper, Ian

    2014-01-01

    After a decade of operations, the Global Fund is an institutional form in flux. Forced to cancel its eleventh round of funding due to a shortfall in donor pledges, the Fund is currently in firefighting mode, overhauling its leadership, governance structures, and operations. Drawing on a case study of Uganda, we look at how the original Global Fund vision to be a simple financial instrument has played out at the country level. Even prior to the cancellation of round 11, the proliferation of partners required to sustain the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria experiment led to increasing bureaucratization and an undermining of the Fund's own intentions to award life-saving grants according to need. Understanding these effects through the ethnographic material presented here may be one way of reflecting on the Fund's structure and practices as it struggles to reinvent itself in the face of criticism that it has impeded resource distribution.

  3. Implementing the global plan to stop TB, 2011-2015 - optimizing allocations and the global fund's contribution: A scenario projections study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.L. Korenromp (Eline); P. Glaziou (Philippe); C. Fitzpatrick (Christopher); K. Floyd (Katherine); M. Hosseini (Mehran); M.C. Raviglione (Mario); R. Atun (Rifat); B. Williams (Brian)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractBackground: The Global Plan to Stop TB estimates funding required in low- and middle-income countries to achieve TB control targets set by the Stop TB Partnership within the context of the Millennium Development Goals. We estimate the contribution and impact of Global Fund investments

  4. 76 FR 35507 - Assistance to Southern Sudan and the United States Contribution to the Global Fund To Fight AIDS...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-17

    ... Contribution to the Global Fund To Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund) for Fiscal Year 2009... the United States Leadership against HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria Act of 2003, as amended, for... the United States Leadership Against HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria Act of 2003, as amended by...

  5. Alternative research funding to improve clinical outcomes: model of prediction and prevention of sudden cardiac death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myerburg, Robert J; Ullmann, Steven G

    2015-04-01

    Although identification and management of cardiovascular risk markers have provided important population risk insights and public health benefits, individual risk prediction remains challenging. Using sudden cardiac death risk as a base case, the complex epidemiology of sudden cardiac death risk and the substantial new funding required to study individual risk are explored. Complex epidemiology derives from the multiple subgroups having different denominators and risk profiles, while funding limitations emerge from saturation of conventional sources of research funding without foreseeable opportunities for increases. A resolution to this problem would have to emerge from new sources of funding targeted to individual risk prediction. In this analysis, we explore the possibility of a research funding strategy that would offer business incentives to the insurance industries, while providing support for unresolved research goals. The model is developed for the case of sudden cardiac death risk, but the concept is applicable to other areas of the medical enterprise. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  6. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria's investments in harm reduction through the rounds-based funding model (2002-2014).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridge, Jamie; Hunter, Benjamin M; Albers, Eliot; Cook, Catherine; Guarinieri, Mauro; Lazarus, Jeffrey V; MacAllister, Jack; McLean, Susie; Wolfe, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Harm reduction is an evidence-based, effective response to HIV transmission and other harms faced by people who inject drugs, and is explicitly supported by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. In spite of this, people who inject drugs continue to have poor and inequitable access to these services and face widespread stigma and discrimination. In 2013, the Global Fund launched a new funding model-signalling the end of the previous rounds-based model that had operated since its founding in 2002. This study updates previous analyses to assess Global Fund investments in harm reduction interventions for the duration of the rounds-based model, from 2002 to 2014. Global Fund HIV and TB/HIV grant documents from 2002 to 2014 were reviewed to identify grants that contained activities for people who inject drugs. Data were collected from detailed grant budgets, and relevant budget lines were recorded and analysed to determine the resources allocated to different interventions that were specifically targeted at people who inject drugs. 151 grants for 58 countries, plus one regional proposal, contained activities targeting people who inject drugs-for a total investment of US$ 620 million. Two-thirds of this budgeted amount was for interventions in the "comprehensive package" defined by the United Nations. 91% of the identified amount was for Eastern Europe and Asia. This study represents an updated, comprehensive assessment of Global Fund investments in harm reduction from its founding (2002) until the start of the new funding model (2014). It also highlights the overall shortfall of harm reduction funding, with the estimated global need being US$ 2.3 billion for harm reduction in 2015 alone. Using this baseline, the Global Fund must carefully monitor its new funding model and ensure that investments in harm reduction are maintained or scaled-up. There are widespread concerns regarding the withdrawal from middle-income countries where harm reduction remains

  7. Global health funding: how much, where it comes from and where it goes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, David; Chand, Sudeep; Sridhar, Devi

    2009-11-01

    Global health funding has increased in recent years. This has been accompanied by a proliferation in the number of global health actors and initiatives. This paper describes the state of global heath finance, taking into account government and private sources of finance, and raises and discusses a number of policy issues related to global health governance. A schematic describing the different actors and three global health finance functions is used to organize the data presented, most of which are secondary data from the published literature and annual reports of relevant actors. In two cases, we also refer to currently unpublished primary data that have been collected by authors of this paper. Among the findings are that the volume of official development assistance for health is frequently inflated; and that data on private sources of global health finance are inadequate but indicate a large and important role of private actors. The fragmented, complicated, messy and inadequately tracked state of global health finance requires immediate attention. In particular it is necessary to track and monitor global health finance that is channelled by and through private sources, and to critically examine who benefits from the rise in global health spending.

  8. Reductions in global biodiversity loss predicted from conservation spending

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldron, Anthony; Miller, Daniel C.; Redding, Dave; Mooers, Arne; Kuhn, Tyler S.; Nibbelink, Nate; Roberts, J. Timmons; Tobias, Joseph A.; Gittleman, John L.

    2017-11-01

    Halting global biodiversity loss is central to the Convention on Biological Diversity and United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, but success to date has been very limited. A critical determinant of success in achieving these goals is the financing that is committed to maintaining biodiversity; however, financing decisions are hindered by considerable uncertainty over the likely impact of any conservation investment. For greater effectiveness, we need an evidence-based model that shows how conservation spending quantitatively reduces the rate of biodiversity loss. Here we demonstrate such a model, and empirically quantify how conservation investment between 1996 and 2008 reduced biodiversity loss in 109 countries (signatories to the Convention on Biological Diversity and Sustainable Development Goals), by a median average of 29% per country. We also show that biodiversity changes in signatory countries can be predicted with high accuracy, using a dual model that balances the effects of conservation investment against those of economic, agricultural and population growth (human development pressures). Decision-makers can use this model to forecast the improvement that any proposed biodiversity budget would achieve under various scenarios of human development pressure, and then compare these forecasts to any chosen policy target. We find that the impact of spending decreases as human development pressures grow, which implies that funding may need to increase over time. The model offers a flexible tool for balancing the Sustainable Development Goals of human development and maintaining biodiversity, by predicting the dynamic changes in conservation finance that will be needed as human development proceeds.

  9. Reductions in global biodiversity loss predicted from conservation spending.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldron, Anthony; Miller, Daniel C; Redding, Dave; Mooers, Arne; Kuhn, Tyler S; Nibbelink, Nate; Roberts, J Timmons; Tobias, Joseph A; Gittleman, John L

    2017-11-16

    Halting global biodiversity loss is central to the Convention on Biological Diversity and United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, but success to date has been very limited. A critical determinant of success in achieving these goals is the financing that is committed to maintaining biodiversity; however, financing decisions are hindered by considerable uncertainty over the likely impact of any conservation investment. For greater effectiveness, we need an evidence-based model that shows how conservation spending quantitatively reduces the rate of biodiversity loss. Here we demonstrate such a model, and empirically quantify how conservation investment reduced biodiversity loss in 109 countries (signatories to the Convention on Biological Diversity and Sustainable Development Goals), by a median average of 29% per country between 1996 and 2008. We also show that biodiversity changes in signatory countries can be predicted with high accuracy, using a dual model that balances the effects of conservation investment against those of economic, agricultural and population growth (human development pressures). Decision-makers can use this model to forecast the improvement that any proposed biodiversity budget would achieve under various scenarios of human development pressure, and then compare these forecasts to any chosen policy target. We find that the impact of spending decreases as human development pressures grow, which implies that funding may need to increase over time. The model offers a flexible tool for balancing the Sustainable Development Goals of human development and maintaining biodiversity, by predicting the dynamic changes in conservation finance that will be needed as human development proceeds.

  10. From Alma Ata to the Global Fund: The history of international health policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Italian Global Health Watch

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available “Global Funds are like stars in the sky, you can see them, admire them, appreciate their abundance… but fail to touch them.” - Ministry of Health Official, Malawi Abstract The paper traces the evolution of international health policies and international health institutions, starting from the birth of the World Health Organization, the setting up of the Health for All target at the Alma Ata conference in 1978 and the rise of neo-liberal policies promoted by international financial institutions from 1980 to the present. The paper looks at different issues surrounding public-private partnerships and the setting up of the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria and the influence of these institutions on the health systems in poor countries.

  11. Partnership, sex, and marginalization: Moving the Global Fund sexual orientation and gender identities agenda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seale, Andy; Bains, Anurita; Avrett, Sam

    2010-06-15

    After almost three decades of work to address HIV and AIDS, resources are still failing to adequately address the needs of the most affected and marginalized groups in many societies. In recognition of this ongoing failure, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (the Global Fund) has approved a sexual orientation and gender identities (SOGI) Strategy. The Strategy is designed to help its investments more effectively reach men who have sex with men; transgender populations; male, female, and transgender sex workers; and women who have sex with women. The Global Fund financing model is unique and based on ideas of broad partnership. It emphasizes the importance of country-ownership while ensuring that work is appropriately targeted, evidence-based, and rooted in principles of human rights. The classic international development tension of pursuing a rights-based agenda, while also supporting strong country ownership, has moved the Global Fund into a more substantive technical, advocacy, and policy arena, resulting in the creation of the SOGI Strategy, which emphasizes the needs of marginalized groups. A strong commitment to participation and consultation was crucial during the development stages of the Strategy. Now, as the Strategy goes live, it is clear that progress will only be achieved through continued and strengthened partnership. The diverse partners - in particular the governments and other stakeholders in recipient countries that helped develop the Strategy - must now commit to stronger collaboration on this agenda and must demonstrate bold leadership in overcoming the considerable technical and political challenges of implementation that lie ahead.

  12. Global funding trends for malaria research in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Head, Michael G; Goss, Sian; Gelister, Yann; Alegana, Victor; Brown, Rebecca J; Clarke, Stuart C; Fitchett, Joseph R A; Atun, Rifat; Scott, J Anthony G; Newell, Marie-Louise; Padmadas, Sabu S; Tatem, Andrew J

    2017-08-01

    Total domestic and international funding for malaria is inadequate to achieve WHO global targets in burden reduction by 2030. We describe the trends of investments in malaria-related research in sub-Saharan Africa and compare investment with national disease burden to identify areas of funding strength and potentially neglected populations. We also considered funding for malaria control. Research funding data related to malaria for 1997-2013 were sourced from existing datasets, from 13 major public and philanthropic global health funders, and from funding databases. Investments (reported in US$) were considered by geographical area and compared with data on parasite prevalence and populations at risk in sub-Saharan Africa. 45 sub-Saharan African countries were ranked by amount of research funding received. We found 333 research awards totalling US$814·4 million. Public health research covered $308·1 million (37·8%) and clinical trials covered $275·2 million (33·8%). Tanzania ($107·8 million [13·2%]), Uganda ($97·9 million [12·0%]), and Kenya ($92·9 million [11·4%]) received the highest sum of research investment and the most research awards. Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda remained highly ranked after adjusting for national gross domestic product. Countries with a reasonably high malaria burden that received little research investment or funding for malaria control included Central African Republic (ranked 40th) and Sierra Leone (ranked 35th). Congo (Brazzaville) and Guinea had reasonably high malaria mortality, yet Congo (Brazzaville) ranked 38th and Guinea ranked 25th, thus receiving little investment. Some countries receive reasonably large investments in malaria-related research (Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda), whereas others receive little or no investments (Sierra Leone, Central African Republic). Research investments are typically highest in countries where funding for malaria control is also high. Investment strategies should consider more equitable

  13. A situational analysis of pharmacovigilance plans in the Global Fund Malaria and U.S. President's Malaria Initiative proposals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stergachis, Andy; Bartlein, Rebecca J K; Dodoo, Alexander; Nwokike, Jude; Kachur, S Patrick

    2010-05-30

    Pharmacovigilance programmes can monitor and help ensure the safe use of medicines that are critical to the success of global public health programmes. The widespread deployment of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) by national malaria control programmes as part of the overall Global Malaria Action Plan for malaria control to elimination and eradication makes ACT an excellent candidate for pharmacovigilance activities. In 2008, The Roll Back Malaria partnership issued guidelines for inclusion of pharmacovigilance in Global Fund and other related proposals. In light of this recommendation and the rapid scale-up of ACT worldwide, an analysis of Global Fund Round 8 proposals and the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) 2009 Malaria Operational Plans was conducted to assess if and how pharmacovigilance has been incorporated into countries' national malaria plans and donor budget requests. The Global Fund-Malaria Round 8 proposals for the 26 countries and the PMI Malaria Operational Plans (MOPs) for fiscal year 2009 for the 15 countries that were approved and received funding from either the Global Fund-Malaria Round 8 or PMI were accessed through the programme websites. The analysis consisted of conducting word counts and key word in context analyses of each proposal and plan. Twelve out of 26 (46%) of the Global Fund proposals mentioned that established pharmacovigilance systems were present in their countries. Four of the fifteen PMI MOPs (27%) mentioned that established pharmacovigilance systems were present in their countries. Only seven of the 26 (27%) Global Fund proposals included a request for funding for new or current pharmacovigilance activities. Seven of 15 (47%) MOPs included a request for funding for pharmacovigilance activities. There were relatively few requests for funding for pharmacovigilance activities, demonstrating a lack of emphasis placed on pharmacovigilance systems in recipient countries. The findings stress the need for more active

  14. Critical interactions between Global Fund-supported programmes and health systems: a case study in Papua New Guinea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudge, James W; Phuanakoonon, Suparat; Nema, K Henry; Mounier-Jack, Sandra; Coker, Richard

    2010-11-01

    In Papua New Guinea, investment by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (the Global Fund) has played an important role in scaling up the response to HIV and tuberculosis (TB). As part of a series of case studies on how Global Fund-supported programmes interact with national health systems, we assessed the nature and extent of integration of the Global Fund portfolios within the national HIV and TB programmes, the integration of the HIV and TB programmes within the general health system, and system-wide effects of Global Fund support in Papua New Guinea. The study relied on a literature review and 30 interviews with key stakeholders using the Systemic Rapid Assessment Toolkit and thematic analysis. Global Fund-supported activities were found to be largely integrated, or at least coordinated, with the national HIV and TB programmes. However, this has reinforced the vertical nature of these programmes with respect to the general health system, with parallel systems established to meet the demands of programme scale-up and the performance-based nature of Global Fund investment in the weak health system context of Papua New Guinea. The more parallel functions include monitoring and evaluation, and procurement and supply chain systems, while human resources and infrastructure for service delivery are increasingly integrated at more local levels. Positive synergies of Global Fund support include engagement of civil-society partners, and a reliable supply of high-quality drugs which may have increased patient confidence in the health system. However, the severely limited and overburdened pool of human resources has been skewed towards the three diseases, both at management and service delivery levels. There is also concern surrounding the sustainability of the disease programmes, given their dependence on donors. Increasing Global Fund attention towards health system strengthening was viewed positively, but should acknowledge that system changes are slow

  15. Indicators measuring the performance of malaria programs supported by the global fund in Asia, progress and the way forward.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinkou Zhao

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: In 2010, the Global Fund provided more than 75% of external international financing for malaria control. The Global Fund uses performance based funding in the grants it finances. This paper analyses the indicators used to measure the performance of Global Fund supported malaria grants in Asia. METHODS: Indicators used in the performance frameworks for all Global Fund supported malaria grants in Asia were retrieved from grant database and grouped into impact, outcome, output and input categories and categorized by service delivery areas. Indicators of each group were compared over rounds. Indicators used in performance frameworks were compared with internationally adopted indicators included in the Monitoring and Evaluation Toolkit developed by the Global Fund and international technical agencies. RESULTS: Between 2002 and 2010, 1,434 indicators were included in the performance frameworks of the 48 malaria grants awarded in Asia, including 229 impact and 227 outcome indicators, 437 output and 541 input indicators, with an average of 29.9 indicators per grant. The proportion of impact and outcome indicators increased over rounds, with that of input indicators declining from 44.1% in Round 1 to 22.7% in Round 9. CONCLUSIONS: Input indicators, which have predominated the performance frameworks of the Global Fund supported malaria programs in Asia have declined between Rounds 1 and 9. However, increased alignment with internationally adopted indicators included in the Monitoring and Evaluation Toolkit is needed to improve the validity of reported results.

  16. Funding flows to global surgery: an analysis of contributions from the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutnik, Lily A; Dielman, Joseph; Dare, Anna J; Ramos, Margarita S; Riviello, Robert; Meara, John G; Yamey, Gavin; Shrime, Mark G

    2015-04-27

    In recent years, funds for global health have risen substantially, particularly for infectious diseases. Although conditions amenable to surgery account for 28% of the global burden of disease, the external funds directed towards global surgical delivery, capacity building, and research are currently unknown and presumed to be low. We aimed to describe external funds given to these efforts from the USA, the world's largest donor nation. We searched the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), National Institute of Health (NIH), Foundation Center, and registered US charitable organisations databases for financial data on any giving exclusively to surgical care in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). All nominal dollars were adjusted for inflation by converting to 2014 US dollars. After adjustment for inflation, 22 NIH funded projects (totalling US$31·3 million, 1991-2014) were identified; 78·9% for trauma and injury, 12·5% for general surgery, and 8·6% for ophthalmology. Six relevant USAID projects were identified; all related to obstetric fistula care totalling US$438 million (2006-13). US$105 million (2003-13) was given to universities and charitable organisations by US foundations for 14 different surgical specialties (ophthalmology, cleft lip/palate, multidisciplinary teams, orthopaedics, cardiac, paediatric, reconstructive, obstetric fistula, neurosurgery, burn, general surgery, obstetric emergency procedures, anaesthesia, and unspecified specialty). 95 US charitable organisations representing 14 specialties (ophthalmology, cleft lip/palate, multidisciplinary teams, orthopaedics, cardiac, paediatric, reconstructive, obstetric fistula, neurosurgery, urology, ENT, craniofacial, burn, and general surgery) totalled revenue of US$2·67 billion and expenditure of US$2·5 billion (2007-13). A strong surgical system is an indispensable part of any health system and requires financial investment. Tracking funds targeting surgery helps

  17. How Thailand's greater convergence created sustainable funding for emerging health priorities caused by globalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charoenca, Naowarut; Kungskulniti, Nipapun; Mock, Jeremiah; Hamann, Stephen; Vathesatogkit, Prakit

    2015-01-01

    Background Global health is shifting gradually from a limited focus on individual communicable disease goals to the formulation of broader sustainable health development goals. A major impediment to this shift is that most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have not established adequate sustainable funding for health promotion and health infrastructure. Objective In this article, we analyze how Thailand, a middle-income country, created a mechanism for sustainable funding for health. Design We analyzed the progression of tobacco control and health promotion policies over the past three decades within the wider political-economic and sociocultural context. We constructed a parallel longitudinal analysis of statistical data on one emerging priority – road accidents – to determine whether policy shifts resulted in reduced injuries, hospitalizations and deaths. Results In Thailand, the convergence of priorities among national interest groups for sustainable health development created an opportunity to use domestic tax policy and to create a semi-autonomous foundation (ThaiHealth) to address a range of pressing health priorities, including programs that substantially reduced road accidents. Conclusions Thailand's strategic process to develop a domestic mechanism for sustainable funding for health may provide LMICs with a roadmap to address emerging health priorities, especially those caused by modernization and globalization. PMID:26328948

  18. How Thailand's greater convergence created sustainable funding for emerging health priorities caused by globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charoenca, Naowarut; Kungskulniti, Nipapun; Mock, Jeremiah; Hamann, Stephen; Vathesatogkit, Prakit

    2015-01-01

    Global health is shifting gradually from a limited focus on individual communicable disease goals to the formulation of broader sustainable health development goals. A major impediment to this shift is that most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have not established adequate sustainable funding for health promotion and health infrastructure. In this article, we analyze how Thailand, a middle-income country, created a mechanism for sustainable funding for health. We analyzed the progression of tobacco control and health promotion policies over the past three decades within the wider political-economic and sociocultural context. We constructed a parallel longitudinal analysis of statistical data on one emerging priority - road accidents - to determine whether policy shifts resulted in reduced injuries, hospitalizations and deaths. In Thailand, the convergence of priorities among national interest groups for sustainable health development created an opportunity to use domestic tax policy and to create a semi-autonomous foundation (ThaiHealth) to address a range of pressing health priorities, including programs that substantially reduced road accidents. Thailand's strategic process to develop a domestic mechanism for sustainable funding for health may provide LMICs with a roadmap to address emerging health priorities, especially those caused by modernization and globalization.

  19. How Thailand's greater convergence created sustainable funding for emerging health priorities caused by globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naowarut Charoenca

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Global health is shifting gradually from a limited focus on individual communicable disease goals to the formulation of broader sustainable health development goals. A major impediment to this shift is that most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs have not established adequate sustainable funding for health promotion and health infrastructure. Objective: In this article, we analyze how Thailand, a middle-income country, created a mechanism for sustainable funding for health. Design: We analyzed the progression of tobacco control and health promotion policies over the past three decades within the wider political-economic and sociocultural context. We constructed a parallel longitudinal analysis of statistical data on one emerging priority – road accidents – to determine whether policy shifts resulted in reduced injuries, hospitalizations and deaths. Results: In Thailand, the convergence of priorities among national interest groups for sustainable health development created an opportunity to use domestic tax policy and to create a semi-autonomous foundation (ThaiHealth to address a range of pressing health priorities, including programs that substantially reduced road accidents. Conclusions: Thailand's strategic process to develop a domestic mechanism for sustainable funding for health may provide LMICs with a roadmap to address emerging health priorities, especially those caused by modernization and globalization.

  20. Gates, GAVI, the glorious global funds and more: all you ever wanted to know.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nossal, Gustav J V

    2003-02-01

    Global immunization programmes have achieved some remarkable successes. In 1977, Frank Fenner's Commission declared smallpox to have been eradicated by an 11-year-long intensive campaign. The Expanded Programme on Immunization encompassed six important childhood vaccines and reached over three-quarters of the world's children. Polio eradication has gone remarkably well, with only 10 out of 200 countries reporting residual cases. But amidst all the good news, there is also bad news. Coverage is variable; infrastructure is crumbling; and newer vaccines are not being incorporated in many country programmes. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has introduced a new dynamic here. From their initial gift of $100 million in December 1998, their commitment to date is US$1.5 billion - and rising. At the centre is a Global Children's Vaccine Fund which permitted the launch, in January 2000, of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization. This is targeted to the 74 poorest countries of the world and is designed to improve vaccination infrastructure, to purchase newer vaccines and to support research and development. Even before we know how successful this programme will be, it has had its imitators. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria borrowed many concepts from GAVI. The Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition announced in May 2002 does so as well, and is heavily supported by Gates. Highly effective parasite control programmes antedate all this but will be much strengthened. However, we still face a sizeable budgetary gap both for research and for bringing the best advances to all people who need them.

  1. The implementation of a global fund grant in Lesotho: applying a framework on knowledge absorptive capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biesma, Regien; Makoa, Elsie; Mpemi, Regina; Tsekoa, Lineo; Odonkor, Philip; Brugha, Ruairi

    2012-02-01

    One of the biggest challenges in scaling up health interventions in sub-Saharan Africa for government recipients is to effectively manage the rapid influx of aid from different donors, each with its own requirements and conditions. However, there is little empirical evidence on how governments absorb knowledge from new donors in order to satisfy their requirements. This case study applies Cuellar and Gallivan's (2006) framework on knowledge absorptive capacity (AC) to illustrate how recipient government organisations in Lesotho identified, assimilated and utilised knowledge on how to meet the disbursement and reporting requirements of Lesotho's Round 5 grant from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria (Global Fund). In-depth topic guided interviews with 22 respondents and document reviews were conducted between July 2008 and February 2009. Analysis focused on six organisational determinants that affect an organisation's absorptive capacity: prior-related knowledge, combinative capabilities, motivation, organisational structure, cultural match, and communication channels. Absorptive capacity was mostly evident at the level of the Principal Recipient, the Ministry of Finance, who established a new organisational unit to meet the requirements of Global Fund Grants, while the level of AC was less advanced among the Ministry of Health (Sub-Recipient) and district level implementers. Recipient organisations can increase their absorptive capacity, not only through prior knowledge of donor requirements, but also by deliberately changing their organisational form and through combinative capabilities. The study also revealed how vulnerable African governments are to loss of staff capacity. The application of organisational theory to analyse the interactions of donor agencies with public and non-public country stakeholders illustrates the complexity of the environment that aid recipient governments have to manage. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. The pricing and procurement of antiretroviral drugs: an observational study of data from the Global Fund.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasan, Ashwin; Hoos, David; Mukherjee, Joia S; Farmer, Paul E; Rosenfield, Allan G; Perriëns, Joseph H

    2006-05-01

    The Purchase price report released in August 2004 by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (Global Fund) was the first publication of a significant amount of real transaction purchase data for antiretrovirals (ARVs). We did an observational study of the ARV transaction data in the Purchase price report to examine the procurement behaviour of principal recipients of Global Fund grants in developing countries. We found that, with a few exceptions for specific products (e.g. lamivudine) and regions (e.g. eastern Europe), prices in low-income countries were broadly consistent or lower than the lowest differential prices quoted by the research and development sector of the pharmaceutical industry. In lower middle-income countries, prices were more varied and in several instances (lopinavir/ritonavir, didanosine, and zidovudine/lamivudine) were very high compared with the per capita income of the country. In all low- and lower middle-income countries, ARV prices were still significantly high given limited local purchasing power and economic strength, thus reaffirming the need for donor support to achieve rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy. However, the price of ARVs will have to decrease to render scale-up financially sustainable for donors and eventually for governments themselves. An important first step in reducing prices will be to make available in the public domain as much ARV transaction data as possible to provide a factual basis for discussions on pricing. The price of ARVs has considerable implications for the sustainability of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) treatment in the developing world.

  3. Bank Funding Structures and Risk; Evidence From the Global Financial Crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Pablo Federico; Francisco F. Vazquez

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyzes the evolution of bank funding structures in the run up to the global financial crisis and studies the implications for financial stability, exploiting a bank-level dataset that covers about 11,000 banks in the U.S. and Europe during 2001?09. The results show that banks with weaker structural liquidity and higher leverage in the pre-crisis period were more likely to fail afterward. The likelihood of bank failure also increases with bank risk-taking. In the cross-section, th...

  4. Determinants and predictability of global wildfire emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Knorr

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Biomass burning is one of the largest sources of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols globally. These emissions have a major impact on the radiative balance of the atmosphere and on air quality, and are thus of significant scientific and societal interest. Several datasets have been developed that quantify those emissions on a global grid and offered to the atmospheric modelling community. However, no study has yet attempted to systematically quantify the dependence of the inferred pyrogenic emissions on underlying assumptions and input data. Such a sensitivity study is needed for understanding how well we can currently model those emissions and what the factors are that contribute to uncertainties in those emission estimates.

    Here, we combine various satellite-derived burned area products, a terrestrial ecosystem model to simulate fuel loads and the effect of fire on ecosystem dynamics, a model of fuel combustion, and various emission models that relate combusted biomass to the emission of various trace gases and aerosols. We carry out simulations with varying parameters for combustion completeness and fuel decomposition rates within published estimates, four different emissions models and three different global burned-area products. We find that variations in combustion completeness and simulated fuel loads have the largest impact on simulated global emissions for most species, except for some with highly uncertain emission factors. Variation in burned-area estimates also contribute considerably to emission uncertainties. We conclude that global models urgently need more field-based data for better parameterisation of combustion completeness and validation of simulated fuel loads, and that further validation and improvement of burned area information is necessary for accurately modelling global wildfire emissions. The results are important for chemical transport modelling studies, and for simulations of biomass burning impacts on the

  5. Research Investments in Global Health: A Systematic Analysis of UK Infectious Disease Research Funding and Global Health Metrics, 1997–2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Head, Michael G.; Fitchett, Joseph R.; Nageshwaran, Vaitehi; Kumari, Nina; Hayward, Andrew; Atun, Rifat

    2015-01-01

    Background Infectious diseases account for a significant global burden of disease and substantial investment in research and development. This paper presents a systematic assessment of research investments awarded to UK institutions and global health metrics assessing disease burden. Methods We systematically sourced research funding data awarded from public and philanthropic organisations between 1997 and 2013. We screened awards for relevance to infection and categorised data by type of science, disease area and specific pathogen. Investments were compared with mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLD) across three time points. Findings Between 1997–2013, there were 7398 awards with a total investment of £3.7 billion. An increase in research funding across 2011–2013 was observed for most disease areas, with notable exceptions being sexually transmitted infections and sepsis research where funding decreased. Most funding remains for pre-clinical research (£2.2 billion, 59.4%). Relative to global mortality, DALYs and YLDs, acute hepatitis C, leishmaniasis and African trypanosomiasis received comparatively high levels of funding. Pneumonia, shigellosis, pertussis, cholera and syphilis were poorly funded across all health metrics. Tuberculosis (TB) consistently attracts relatively less funding than HIV and malaria. Interpretation Most infections have received increases in research investment, alongside decreases in global burden of disease in 2013. The UK demonstrates research strengths in some neglected tropical diseases such as African trypanosomiasis and leishmaniasis, but syphilis, cholera, shigellosis and pneumonia remain poorly funded relative to their global burden. Acute hepatitis C appears well funded but the figures do not adequately take into account projected future chronic burdens for this condition. These findings can help to inform global policymakers on resource allocation for research investment

  6. Research Investments in Global Health: A Systematic Analysis of UK Infectious Disease Research Funding and Global Health Metrics, 1997-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Head, Michael G; Fitchett, Joseph R; Nageshwaran, Vaitehi; Kumari, Nina; Hayward, Andrew; Atun, Rifat

    2016-01-01

    Infectious diseases account for a significant global burden of disease and substantial investment in research and development. This paper presents a systematic assessment of research investments awarded to UK institutions and global health metrics assessing disease burden. We systematically sourced research funding data awarded from public and philanthropic organisations between 1997 and 2013. We screened awards for relevance to infection and categorised data by type of science, disease area and specific pathogen. Investments were compared with mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLD) across three time points. Between 1997-2013, there were 7398 awards with a total investment of £3.7 billion. An increase in research funding across 2011-2013 was observed for most disease areas, with notable exceptions being sexually transmitted infections and sepsis research where funding decreased. Most funding remains for pre-clinical research (£2.2 billion, 59.4%). Relative to global mortality, DALYs and YLDs, acute hepatitis C, leishmaniasis and African trypanosomiasis received comparatively high levels of funding. Pneumonia, shigellosis, pertussis, cholera and syphilis were poorly funded across all health metrics. Tuberculosis (TB) consistently attracts relatively less funding than HIV and malaria. Most infections have received increases in research investment, alongside decreases in global burden of disease in 2013. The UK demonstrates research strengths in some neglected tropical diseases such as African trypanosomiasis and leishmaniasis, but syphilis, cholera, shigellosis and pneumonia remain poorly funded relative to their global burden. Acute hepatitis C appears well funded but the figures do not adequately take into account projected future chronic burdens for this condition. These findings can help to inform global policymakers on resource allocation for research investment.

  7. GlobalSoilMap and Global Carbon Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hempel, Jonathan; McBratney, Alex B.; Arrouays, Dominique

    consistently produced soil property information at 100 m resolution across the world. This information will aid in solving some of the key environment and societal issues of the day, including food security, global climate change land degradation and carbon sequestration. Data would be produced using mostly...... the storehouse of existing legacy soils data along with geographic information and a range of covariates. A range of modeling techniques is used dependant on the complexity of the background soil survey information. The key soil properties that would be most useful to the modeling community and other users are...... of soil property values throughout the depth of each profile. Maps have been produced at the country level in the Australia, Canada, Denmark, Nigeria, South Korea and the US and work is on-going in many other parts of the world....

  8. Implementing the global plan to stop TB, 2011-2015--optimizing allocations and the Global Fund's contribution: a scenario projections study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eline L Korenromp

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The Global Plan to Stop TB estimates funding required in low- and middle-income countries to achieve TB control targets set by the Stop TB Partnership within the context of the Millennium Development Goals. We estimate the contribution and impact of Global Fund investments under various scenarios of allocations across interventions and regions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using Global Plan assumptions on expected cases and mortality, we estimate treatment costs and mortality impact for diagnosis and treatment for drug-sensitive and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB, including antiretroviral treatment (ART during DOTS for HIV-co-infected patients, for four country groups, overall and for the Global Fund investments. In 2015, China and India account for 24% of funding need, Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA for 33%, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA for 20%, and other low- and middle-income countries for 24%. Scale-up of MDR-TB treatment, especially in EECA, drives an increasing global TB funding need--an essential investment to contain the mortality burden associated with MDR-TB and future disease costs. Funding needs rise fastest in SSA, reflecting increasing coverage need of improved TB/HIV management, which saves most lives per dollar spent in the short term. The Global Fund is expected to finance 8-12% of Global Plan implementation costs annually. Lives saved through Global Fund TB support within the available funding envelope could increase 37% if allocations shifted from current regional demand patterns to a prioritized scale-up of improved TB/HIV treatment and secondly DOTS, both mainly in Africa--with EECA region, which has disproportionately high per-patient costs, funded from alternative resources. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These findings, alongside country funding gaps, domestic funding and implementation capacity and equity considerations, should inform strategies and policies for international donors, national governments and

  9. Analysis of International Monetary Fund under conditions of globalization of economic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.V. Ksendzuk

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Globalization in the economy requires proper management of countries' financial resources as the regulation of international financial market is one of the most important tasks of the successful development of the world economy and individual national economies. The International Monetary Fund since the beginning of its creation was intended to regulate the financial situation in the post-war period in world space. In present conditions of information development of the world economic system the role and importance of international financial institutions are changing. Thus, the policies and activities of the IMF are increasingly criticized, that is substantiated and requires some restructuring and reforming areas of the Fund activity. During the research the basic aspects of IMF activities in 2015 have been analyzed and the suggestions for its further effective development have been presented. In particular, it is advisable to use the specific individual approach to the problems of particular economies and to view the sizes of quotas and their functional purposes that will allow to develop new funding mechanisms that are based on social and ecological needs of society. This, in turn, will reduce the impact of developed countries on the activities of the financial institution

  10. The International Monetary Fund's effects on global health: before and after the 2008 financial crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuckler, David; Basu, Sanjay

    2009-01-01

    In April 2009, the G20 countries committed US $750 billion to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has assumed a central role in global economic management. The IMF provides loans to financially ailing countries, but with strict conditions, typically involving a mix of privatization, liberalization, and fiscal austerity programs. These loan conditions have been extremely controversial. In principle, they are designed to help countries balance their books. In practice, they often translate into reductions in social spending, including spending on public health and health care delivery. As more countries are being exposed to IMF policies, there is a need to establish what we know and do not know about the IMF's effects on global health. This article introduces a series in which contributors review the evidence on the relationship between the IMF and public health and discuss potential ways to improve the Fund's effects on health. While more evidence is needed for some regions, there is sufficient evidence to indicate that IMF programs have been significantly associated with weakened health care systems, reduced effectiveness of health-focused development aid, and impeded efforts to control tobacco, infectious diseases, and child and maternal mortality. Reforms are urgently needed to prevent the current wave of IMF programs from further undermining public health in financially ailing countries and limiting progress toward the health Millennium Development Goals.

  11. Dedicated health systems strengthening of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria: an analysis of grants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Victoria Y; Tsai, Feng-Jen J; Shroff, Zubin C; Nakahara, Branden; Vargha, Nabil; Weathers, Scott

    2017-01-01

    This study aims to understand the determinants of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria's dedicated channel for health systems strengthening (HSS) funding across countries and to analyze their health system priorities expressed in budgets and performance indicators. We obtained publicly available data for disease-specific and HSS grants from the Global Fund over 2004-2013 prior to the new funding model. Regression analysis was employed to assess the determinants of dedicated HSS funding across 111 countries. Documents for 27 dedicated HSS grants including budgets and performance indicators were collected, and activities were analyzed by health system functions. HSS funding per capita is significantly associated with TB and HIV funding per capita, but not per capita income and health worker density. Of 27 dedicated HSS grants, 11 had line-item budgets publicly available, in which health workforce and medical products form the majority (89% or US$132 million of US$148 million) of funds. Yet these areas accounted for 41.7% (215) of total 516 performance indicators. Health worker densities were not correlated with HSS funding, despite the emphasis on health workforce in budgets and performance indicators. Priorities in health systems in line-item budgets differ from the numbers of indicators used. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Global nanotechnology development from 1991 to 2012: patents, scientific publications, and effect of NSF funding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Hsinchun [The University of Arizona, Department of Management Information Systems (United States); Roco, Mihail C. [National Science Foundation (United States); Son, Jaebong; Jiang, Shan, E-mail: jiangs@email.arizona.edu; Larson, Catherine A.; Gao, Qiang [The University of Arizona, Department of Management Information Systems (United States)

    2013-09-15

    In a relatively short interval for an emerging technology, nanotechnology has made a significant economic impact in numerous sectors including semiconductor manufacturing, catalysts, medicine, agriculture, and energy production. A part of the United States (US) government investment in basic research has been realized in the last two decades through the National Science Foundation (NSF), beginning with the nanoparticle research initiative in 1991 and continuing with support from the National Nanotechnology Initiative after fiscal year 2001. This paper has two main goals: (a) present a longitudinal analysis of the global nanotechnology development as reflected in the United States Patent and Trade Office (USPTO) patents and Web of Science (WoS) publications in nanoscale science and engineering (NSE) for the interval 1991-2012; and (b) identify the effect of basic research funded by NSF on both indicators. The interval has been separated into three parts for comparison purposes: 1991-2000, 2001-2010, and 2011-2012. The global trends of patents and scientific publications are presented. Bibliometric analysis, topic analysis, and citation network analysis methods are used to rank countries, institutions, technology subfields, and inventors contributing to nanotechnology development. We then, examined how these entities were affected by NSF funding and how they evolved over the past two decades. Results show that dedicated NSF funding used to support nanotechnology R and D was followed by an increased number of relevant patents and scientific publications, a greater diversity of technology topics, and a significant increase of citations. The NSF played important roles in the inventor community and served as a major contributor to numerous nanotechnology subfields.

  13. Global nanotechnology development from 1991 to 2012: patents, scientific publications, and effect of NSF funding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Hsinchun; Roco, Mihail C.; Son, Jaebong; Jiang, Shan; Larson, Catherine A.; Gao, Qiang

    2013-01-01

    In a relatively short interval for an emerging technology, nanotechnology has made a significant economic impact in numerous sectors including semiconductor manufacturing, catalysts, medicine, agriculture, and energy production. A part of the United States (US) government investment in basic research has been realized in the last two decades through the National Science Foundation (NSF), beginning with the nanoparticle research initiative in 1991 and continuing with support from the National Nanotechnology Initiative after fiscal year 2001. This paper has two main goals: (a) present a longitudinal analysis of the global nanotechnology development as reflected in the United States Patent and Trade Office (USPTO) patents and Web of Science (WoS) publications in nanoscale science and engineering (NSE) for the interval 1991–2012; and (b) identify the effect of basic research funded by NSF on both indicators. The interval has been separated into three parts for comparison purposes: 1991–2000, 2001–2010, and 2011–2012. The global trends of patents and scientific publications are presented. Bibliometric analysis, topic analysis, and citation network analysis methods are used to rank countries, institutions, technology subfields, and inventors contributing to nanotechnology development. We then, examined how these entities were affected by NSF funding and how they evolved over the past two decades. Results show that dedicated NSF funding used to support nanotechnology R and D was followed by an increased number of relevant patents and scientific publications, a greater diversity of technology topics, and a significant increase of citations. The NSF played important roles in the inventor community and served as a major contributor to numerous nanotechnology subfields

  14. Global skin colour prediction from DNA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Walsh (Susan); L.C. Chaitanya (Lakshmi); Breslin, K. (Krystal); Muralidharan, C. (Charanya); Bronikowska, A. (Agnieszka); E. Pośpiech (Ewelina); Koller, J. (Julia); L. Kovatsi (Leda); A. Wollstein (Andreas); W. Branicki (Wojciech); F. Liu; M.H. Kayser (Manfred)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractHuman skin colour is highly heritable and externally visible with relevance in medical, forensic, and anthropological genetics. Although eye and hair colour can already be predicted with high accuracies from small sets of carefully selected DNA markers, knowledge about the genetic

  15. Climate Prediction Center - Global Tropical Hazards Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Organization Search Go Search the CPC Go Climate Outlooks Climate & Weather Link El Niño/La Niña MJO Teleconnections AO NAO PNA AAO Blocking Storm Tracks Climate Glossary Outreach About Us Our Mission Who We Are

  16. Research Investments in Global Health: A Systematic Analysis of UK Infectious Disease Research Funding and Global Health Metrics, 1997–2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael G. Head

    2016-01-01

    Interpretation: Most infections have received increases in research investment, alongside decreases in global burden of disease in 2013. The UK demonstrates research strengths in some neglected tropical diseases such as African trypanosomiasis and leishmaniasis, but syphilis, cholera, shigellosis and pneumonia remain poorly funded relative to their global burden. Acute hepatitis C appears well funded but the figures do not adequately take into account projected future chronic burdens for this condition. These findings can help to inform global policymakers on resource allocation for research investment.

  17. Predicting global variation in infectious disease severity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Per Moestrup; de Fine Licht, Henrik Hjarvard

    2016-01-01

    demographic and population data. Results: Birth rates were the best predictor for mumps and malaria CFR. For tuberculosis CFR death rates were the best predictor and for leptospirosis population density was a significant predictor. Conclusions and implications: CFR predictors differed among diseases according...... and leptospirosis and assessed these for association with a range of population characteristics, such as crude birth and death rates, median age of the population, mean body mass index, proportion living in urban areas and tuberculosis vaccine coverage. We then tested this predictive model on Danish his- torical...... have the opposite effect. Accordingly changes in CFR may occur in parallel with demographic transitions. Methodology: We explored the predictability of CFR using data obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) disease databases for four human diseases: mumps, malaria, tuberculosis...

  18. Power in global health agenda-setting: the role of private funding Comment on "Knowledge, moral claims and the exercise of power in global health".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Ruth E

    2015-03-04

    The editorial by Jeremy Shiffman, "Knowledge, moral claims and the exercise of power in global health", highlights the influence on global health priority-setting of individuals and organizations that do not have a formal political mandate. This sheds light on the way key functions in global health depend on private funding, particularly from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2015 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  19. The financial crisis and global health: the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) policy response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruckert, Arne; Labonté, Ronald

    2013-09-01

    In this article, we interrogate the policy response of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the global financial crisis, and discuss the likely global health implications, especially in low-income countries. In doing so, we ask if the IMF has meaningfully loosened its fiscal deficit targets in light of the economic challenges posed by the financial crisis and adjusted its macro-economic policy advice to this new reality; or has the rhetoric of counter-cyclical spending failed to translate into additional fiscal space for IMF loan-recipient countries, with negative health consequences? To answer these questions, we assess several post-crisis IMF lending agreements with countries requiring financial assistance, and draw upon recent academic studies and civil society reports examining policy conditionalities still being prescribed by the IMF. We also reference recent studies examining the health impacts of these conditionalities. We demonstrate that while the IMF has been somewhat more flexible in its crisis response than in previous episodes of financial upheaval, there has been no meaningful rethinking in the application of dominant neoliberal macro-economic policies. After showing some flexibility in the initial crisis response, the IMF is pushing for excessive contraction in most low and middle-income countries. We conclude that there remains a wide gap between the rhetoric and the reality of the IMF's policy and programming advice, with negative implications for global health.

  20. Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monserud, R.A.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Leemans, R. (US Department of Agriculture, Moscow, ID (United States). Intermountain Research Station, Forest Service)

    1993-09-01

    A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO[sub 2] doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL, GISS, OSU, and UKMO). All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable, although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole, although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones, vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favouring either Forest over Savanna, or vice versa, will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50-100 y needed for CO[sub 2] doubling, it is not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change. 72 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

  1. Negative health system effects of Global Fund's investments in AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria from 2002 to 2009: systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Car, Josip; Paljärvi, Tapio; Car, Mate; Kazeem, Ayodele; Majeed, Azeem; Atun, Rifat

    2012-10-01

    By using the Global Fund as a case example, we aim to critically evaluate the evidence generated from 2002 to 2009 for potential negative health system effects of Global Health Initiatives (GHI). Systematic review of research literature. Developing Countries. All interventions potentially affecting health systems that were funded by the Global Fund. Negative health system effects of Global Fund investments as reported by study authors. We identified 24 studies commenting on adverse effects on health systems arising from Global Fund investments. Sixteen were quantitative studies, six were qualitative and two used both quantitative and qualitative methods, but none explicitly stated that the studies were originally designed to capture or to assess health system effects (positive or negative). Only seemingly anecdotal evidence or authors' perceptions/interpretations of circumstances could be extracted from the included studies. This study shows that much of the currently available evidence generated between 2002 and 2009 on GHIs potential negative health system effects is not of the quality expected or needed to best serve the academic or broader community. The majority of the reviewed research did not fulfil the requirements of rigorous scientific evidence.

  2. Rights and Responsibilities of Tuberculosis Patients, and the Global Fund: A Qualitative Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atif, Muhammad; Javaid, Sareema; Farooqui, Maryam; Sarwar, Muhammad Rehan

    2016-01-01

    Implementation of the Charter to protect patients' rights is an important criterion to achieve patient-centered approach and receive financial support from the Global Fund. Our study aims to explore the knowledge of tuberculosis (TB) patients about their rights and responsibilities at the Chest Disease Unit of the Bahawal Victoria Hospital, Bahawalpur, Pakistan. This was a qualitative study. The data from purposefully selected TB patients was collected by in-depth interviews. Eligibility criteria included confirmed diagnosis of TB and enrollment in the TB program. A pilot tested interview protocol was based upon the objectives of the study, and was used uniformly in each interview to maintain the consistency. The sample size was limited by applying the saturation criteria. All interviews were audiotaped and transcribed verbatim. Inductive thematic content analysis was applied to analyze the data and draw conclusions. Out of the total 16 patients, four were female, and seven were illiterate. Eight patients were known cases of multi-drug resistant TB. Analysis of the data yielded seven themes; tuberculosis care services, moral support and stigmatization, dignity and privacy, complaints, fear of losing job, information sharing and compliance to the treatment plan, and contribution to eradicate TB. First five represented the rights section while latter two were related to the responsibilities section of the Charter. Discriminatory access to TB care services and the right to privacy were two major concerns identified in this study. However, the respondents recognized their responsibilities as a TB patient. To ensure uninterrupted investment from the Global Fund, there is a need to implement fair TB care policies which support human rights-based approach.

  3. Rights and Responsibilities of Tuberculosis Patients, and the Global Fund: A Qualitative Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Atif

    Full Text Available Implementation of the Charter to protect patients' rights is an important criterion to achieve patient-centered approach and receive financial support from the Global Fund. Our study aims to explore the knowledge of tuberculosis (TB patients about their rights and responsibilities at the Chest Disease Unit of the Bahawal Victoria Hospital, Bahawalpur, Pakistan.This was a qualitative study. The data from purposefully selected TB patients was collected by in-depth interviews. Eligibility criteria included confirmed diagnosis of TB and enrollment in the TB program. A pilot tested interview protocol was based upon the objectives of the study, and was used uniformly in each interview to maintain the consistency. The sample size was limited by applying the saturation criteria. All interviews were audiotaped and transcribed verbatim. Inductive thematic content analysis was applied to analyze the data and draw conclusions.Out of the total 16 patients, four were female, and seven were illiterate. Eight patients were known cases of multi-drug resistant TB. Analysis of the data yielded seven themes; tuberculosis care services, moral support and stigmatization, dignity and privacy, complaints, fear of losing job, information sharing and compliance to the treatment plan, and contribution to eradicate TB. First five represented the rights section while latter two were related to the responsibilities section of the Charter.Discriminatory access to TB care services and the right to privacy were two major concerns identified in this study. However, the respondents recognized their responsibilities as a TB patient. To ensure uninterrupted investment from the Global Fund, there is a need to implement fair TB care policies which support human rights-based approach.

  4. Implementing Global Fund programs: a survey of opinions and experiences of the Principal Recipients across 69 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wafula, Francis; Marwa, Charles; McCoy, David

    2014-03-24

    Principal Recipients (PRs) receive money from the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund) to manage and implement programs. However, little research has gone into understanding their opinions and experiences. This survey set out to describe these, thereby providing a baseline against which changes in PR opinions and experiences can be assessed as the recently introduced new funding model is rolled out. An internet based questionnaire was administered to 315 PRs. A total of 115 responded from 69 countries in Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America. The study was conducted between September and December 2012. Three quarters of PRs thought the progress update and disbursement request (PU/DR) system was a useful method of reporting grant progress. However, most felt that the grant negotiation processes were complicated, and that the grant rating system did not reflect performance.While nearly all PRs were happy with the work being done by sub-Recipients (92%) and Fund Portfolio Managers (86%), fewer were happy with the Office of the Inspector General (OIG). Non-government PRs were generally less happy with the OIG's work compared to government PRs.Most PRs thought the Global Fund's Voluntary Pooled Procurement system made procurement easier. However, only 29% said the system should be made compulsory.When asked which aspects of the Global Fund's operations needed improvement, most PRs said that the Fund should re-define and clarify the roles of different actors, minimize staff turnover at its Secretariat, and shorten the grant application and approval processes. All these are currently being addressed, either directly or indirectly, under a new funding model. Vigorous assessments should nonetheless follow the roll-out of the new model to ensure the areas that are most likely to affect PR performance realize sustained improvement. Opinions and experiences with the Global Fund were varied, with PRs having good communication with Fund

  5. The evolution of sovereign wealth funds and their influence in the global economy. The case of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioana-Iulica MIHAI

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper, through the deductive analysis and the causal explanations, catches the positive and negative character of the Sovereign Wealth Funds development as a relatively new economic tool, but with a strong impact in the global economy, especially in the context of the current financial changes. The benefits brought by them to the global capital market, in terms of increasing liquidity and allotting financial resources, however cannot diminish the fears related to the states holding sovereign funds in the economy of other countries, and in order to give an example we present the case of China.

  6. Assessment of Costs for a Global Climate Fund Against Public Sector Disaster Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Mechler, Reinhard; Pflug, Georg; Williges, Keith

    2013-04-01

    National governments are key actors in managing climate variability and change, yet, many countries, faced with exhausted tax bases, high levels of indebtedness and limited donor assistance, have been unable to raise sufficient and timely capital to replace or repair damaged assets and restore livelihoods following major disasters exacerbating the impacts of disaster shocks on poverty and development. For weather extremes, which form a subset of the adaptation challenge and are supposed to increase in intensity and frequency with a changing climate, we conduct an assessment of the costs of managing and financing today's public sector risks on a global scale for more than 180 countries. A countries financial vulnerability is defined as a function of its financial resilience and its exposure to disaster risk. While disaster risk is estimated in terms of asset loss distributions based on catastrophe modeling approaches, financial resilience is operationalized as the public sector's ability to pay for relief to the affected population and support the reconstruction of affected assets and infrastructure for a given event. We consider governments financially vulnerable to disasters if they cannot access sufficient funding after a disaster to cover their liabilities. We operationalize this concept by the term resource gap, which we define the net loss associated with a disaster event after exhausting all possible ex-post and ex ante financing sources. Extending this approach for all possible disaster events, the risk that a resource gap will occur over a given time-span can be calculated for each country individually and dependent on the risk level different risk instruments may have to be applied. Furthermore, our estimates may inform decisions pertaining to a "climate insurance fund" absorbing "high level" country risks exceeding the ability of any given country to pay in the case of an extreme event. Our estimates relate to today's climate, yet we suggest that

  7. Long-term costs and health impact of continued global fund support for antiretroviral therapy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Stover

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: By the end of 2011 Global Fund investments will be supporting 3.5 million people on antiretroviral therapy (ART in 104 low- and middle-income countries. We estimated the cost and health impact of continuing treatment for these patients through 2020. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Survival on first-line and second-line ART regimens is estimated based on annual retention rates reported by national AIDS programs. Costs per patient-year were calculated from country-reported ARV procurement prices, and expenditures on laboratory tests, health care utilization and end-of-life care from in-depth costing studies. Of the 3.5 million ART patients in 2011, 2.3 million will still need treatment in 2020. The annual cost of maintaining ART falls from $1.9 billion in 2011 to $1.7 billion in 2020, as a result of a declining number of surviving patients partially offset by increasing costs as more patients migrate to second-line therapy. The Global Fund is expected to continue being a major contributor to meeting this financial need, alongside other international funders and domestic resources. Costs would be $150 million less in 2020 with an annual 5% decline in first-line ARV prices and $150-370 million less with a 5%-12% annual decline in second-line prices, but $200 million higher in 2020 with phase out of stavudine (d4T, or $200 million higher with increased migration to second-line regimens expected if all countries routinely adopted viral load monitoring. Deaths postponed by ART correspond to 830,000 life-years saved in 2011, increasing to around 2.3 million life-years every year between 2015 and 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Annual patient-level direct costs of supporting a patient cohort remain fairly stable over 2011-2020, if current antiretroviral prices and delivery costs are maintained. Second-line antiretroviral prices are a major cost driver, underscoring the importance of investing in treatment quality to improve retention on first-line regimens.

  8. Mortality changes after grants from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria: an econometric analysis from 1995 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Isabel; Korenromp, Eline; Bendavid, Eran

    2015-09-28

    Since its founding in 2002, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (Global Fund) has become the dominant multilateral health financier in low- and middle-income countries. The health impact of the Global Fund remains unknown because existing evaluations measure intermediate outcomes or do not account for preexisting and counterfactual trends. We conducted an econometric analysis of data from all countries eligible to receive Global Fund grants from 1995 to 2010, prior to and during the Global Fund's activities. We analyzed three outcomes: all-cause adult (15-59 years), all-cause under-five, and malaria-specific under-five mortality. Our main exposure was a continuous longitudinal measure of Global Fund disbursements per capita. We used panel fixed effect regressions, and analyzed mortality trends controlling for health spending, health worker density (a measure of health system capacity), gross domestic product, urbanization, and country fixed-effects. We find that following Global Fund disbursements, adult mortality rate declined by 1.4 % per year faster with every $10 per capita increase in disbursements (p = 0.005). Similarly, malaria-specific under-five mortality declined by 6.9 % per year faster (p = 0.033) with every $10 high per capita Global Fund disbursements. However, we find no association between Global Fund support and all-cause under-five mortality. These findings were consistent after subanalyses by baseline HIV prevalence, adjusting for effects of concurrent health aid from other donors, and varying time lags between funding and mortality changes. Grants from the Global Fund are closely related to accelerated reductions in all-cause adult mortality and malaria-specific under-five mortality. However, up to 2010 the Global Fund has not measurably contributed to reducing all-cause under-five mortality.

  9. 78 FR 17235 - Global X Funds, et al.; Notice of Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-20

    ... investment company if the sale will cause the acquiring company to own more than 3% of the acquired company's voting stock, or if the sale will cause more than 10% of the acquired company's voting stock to be owned... include concerns about undue influence by a fund of funds over underlying funds, excessive layering of...

  10. REDD and PINC: A new policy framework to fund tropical forests as global 'eco-utilities'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trivedi, M R; Mitchell, A W; Mardas, N; Parker, C; Watson, J E; Nobre, A D

    2009-01-01

    Tropical forests are 'eco-utilities' providing critical ecosystem services that underpin food, energy, water and climate security at local to global scales. Currently, these services are unrecognised and unrewarded in international policy and financial frameworks, causing forests to be worth more dead than alive. Much attention is currently focused on REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) and A/R (Afforestation and Reforestation) as mitigation options. In this article we propose an additional mechanism - PINC (Proactive Investment in Natural Capital) - that recognises and rewards the value of ecosystem services provided by standing tropical forests, especially from a climate change adaptation perspective. Using Amazonian forests as a case study we show that PINC could improve the wellbeing of rural and forest-dependent populations, enabling them to cope with the impacts associated with climate change and deforestation. By investing pro-actively in areas where deforestation pressures are currently low, the long-term costs of mitigation and adaptation will be reduced. We suggest a number of ways in which funds could be raised through emerging financial mechanisms to provide positive incentives to maintain standing forests. To develop PINC, a new research and capacity-building agenda is needed that explores the interdependence between communities, the forest eco-utility and the wider economy.

  11. REDD and PINC: A new policy framework to fund tropical forests as global 'eco-utilities'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trivedi, M. R.; Mitchell, A. W.; Mardas, N.; Parker, C.; Watson, J. E.; Nobre, A. D.

    2009-11-01

    Tropical forests are 'eco-utilities' providing critical ecosystem services that underpin food, energy, water and climate security at local to global scales. Currently, these services are unrecognised and unrewarded in international policy and financial frameworks, causing forests to be worth more dead than alive. Much attention is currently focused on REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) and A/R (Afforestation and Reforestation) as mitigation options. In this article we propose an additional mechanism - PINC (Proactive Investment in Natural Capital) - that recognises and rewards the value of ecosystem services provided by standing tropical forests, especially from a climate change adaptation perspective. Using Amazonian forests as a case study we show that PINC could improve the wellbeing of rural and forest-dependent populations, enabling them to cope with the impacts associated with climate change and deforestation. By investing pro-actively in areas where deforestation pressures are currently low, the long-term costs of mitigation and adaptation will be reduced. We suggest a number of ways in which funds could be raised through emerging financial mechanisms to provide positive incentives to maintain standing forests. To develop PINC, a new research and capacity-building agenda is needed that explores the interdependence between communities, the forest eco-utility and the wider economy.

  12. A lead for transvaluation of global nuclear energy research and funded projects in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiriyama, Eriko; Kajikawa, Yuya; Fujita, Katsuhide; Iwata, Shuichi

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Chernobyl accident had limited influence on basic research in nuclear energy. • Budget allocation to R and D and number of published papers have recently decreased. • Citation network analysis revealed reactor safety and fusion as current research trend. • Nuclear energy research policy will change after Fukushima disaster. - Abstract: The decision-making process that precedes the introduction of a new energy system should strive for a balance among human security, environmental safeguards, energy security, proliferation risk, economic risks, etc. For nuclear energy, the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster (Fukushima disaster) has brought forth a strong need for transvaluation of the present technology. Here, we analyzed bibliographic records of publications in nuclear science and technology to illustrate an overview and trends in nuclear energy technology and related fields by using citation network analysis. We also analyzed funding data and keywords assigned for each project by co-occurrence network analysis. This research integrates citation network analysis and bibliometric keyword analysis to compare the global trends in nuclear energy research and characteristics of research conducted at universities and institutes in Japan. We show that the Chernobyl accident had only a limited influence on basic research. The results of papers are dispersed in diverse areas of nuclear energy technology research, and the results of KAKEN projects in Japan are highly influenced by national energy policy with a focus on nuclear fuel cycle for energy security, although KAKEN allows much freedom in the selection of research projects to academic community

  13. Exploring the influence of the Global Fund and the GAVI Alliance on health systems in conflict-affected countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Preeti; Cummings, Rachael; Roberts, Bayard

    2015-01-01

    Global Health Initiatives (GHIs) respond to high-impact communicable diseases in resource-poor countries, including health systems support, and are major actors in global health. GHIs could play an important role in countries affected by armed conflict given these countries commonly have weak health systems and a high burden of communicable disease. The aim of this study is to explore the influence of two leading GHIs, the Global Fund and the GAVI Alliance, on the health systems of conflict-affected countries. This study used an analytical review approach to identify evidence on the role of the Global Fund and the GAVI Alliance with regards to health systems support to 19 conflict-affected countries. Primary and secondary published and grey literature were used, including country evaluations from the Global Fund and the GAVI Alliance. The WHO heath systems building blocks framework was used for the analysis. There is a limited evidence-base on the influence of GHIs on health systems of conflict-affected countries. The findings suggest that GHIs are increasingly investing in conflict-affected countries which has helped to rapidly scale up health services, strengthen human resources, improve procurement, and develop guidelines and protocols. Negative influences include distorting priorities within the health system, inequitable financing of disease-specific services over other health services, diverting staff away from more essential health care services, inadequate attention to capacity building, burdensome reporting requirements, and limited flexibility and responsiveness to the contextual challenges of conflict-affected countries. There is some evidence of increasing engagement of the Global Fund and the GAVI Alliance with health systems in conflict-affected countries, but this engagement should be supported by more context-specific policies and approaches.

  14. The global financial crisis has led to a slowdown in growth of funding to improve health in many developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leach-Kemon, Katherine; Chou, David P; Schneider, Matthew T; Tardif, Annette; Dieleman, Joseph L; Brooks, Benjamin P C; Hanlon, Michael; Murray, Christopher J L

    2012-01-01

    How has funding to developing countries for health improvement changed in the wake of the global financial crisis? The question is vital for policy making, planning, and advocacy purposes in donor and recipient countries alike. We measured the total amount of financial and in-kind assistance that flowed from both public and private channels to improve health in developing countries during the period 1990-2011. The data for the years 1990-2009 reflect disbursements, while the numbers for 2010 and 2011 are preliminary estimates. Development assistance for health continued to grow in 2011, but the rate of growth was low. We estimate that assistance for health grew by 4 percent each year from 2009 to 2011, reaching a total of $27.73 billion. This growth was largely driven by the World Bank's International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and appeared to be a deliberate strategy in response to the global economic crisis. Assistance for health from bilateral agencies grew by only 4 percent, or $444.08 million, largely because the United States slowed its development assistance for health. Health funding through UN agencies stagnated, and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria announced that it would make no new grants for the next two years because of declines in funding. Given the international community's focus on meeting the Millennium Development Goals by 2015 and persistent economic hardship in donor countries, continued measurement of development assistance for health is essential for policy making.

  15. Partners or donors: The perceived roles of Global Fund Principal Recipient NGOs in HIV prevention programmes in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svetlana McGill

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Ukraine has one of Europe's fastest growing HIV rates and in 2003–2012 was one of the largest recipients of funding from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GF. Doctoral research recently completed by the author investigates the conduct and practice of international and national nongovernmental organisations (NGOs as Principal Recipients (PRs of GF grants in Ukraine from 2003 to 2012. An ethnographic enquiry including 50 participant interviews was conducted in three oblasts in Ukraine, and in its capital, Kyiv. The paper presents some of the findings that emerged from the analysis. Discussing the PR NGOs roles and practices in delivering HIV prevention programmes funded by GF, the author argues that the anticipated benefits of NGO partnerships between PR NGOs and their Sub-Recipients (SRs have not been achieved. Rather, PRs acted as donors and ran highly discretionary policies in channelling GF funding to SRs that installed competition and vertical relations between NGO-grantors and NGO-grantees. The outcome was a servile civil society that is dependent on external funding and is unable to genuinely represent their communities. With an anticipated GF phasing out from Ukraine, there is a critical lack of advocacy potential of the civil society to articulate and defend the needs of PLHIV when transferring HIV services into state funding.

  16. 75 FR 9960 - First Trust/Aberdeen Global Opportunity Income Fund, et al.; Notice of Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-04

    ... represent that, before any Fund will implement a policy to make level, periodic distributions with respect... common stockholders with level, periodic distributions. Applicants represent that, under the Plan of a..., as an exhibit to its next filed Form N-CSR; and C. The fund will post prominently on the Web site...

  17. New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Ali, Mohamed A.; Hanafy, Ahmed A.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • New temperature-based models for estimating solar radiation are investigated. • The models are validated against 20-years measured data of global solar radiation. • The new temperature-based model shows the best performance for coastal sites. • The new temperature-based model is more accurate than the sunshine-based models. • The new model is highly applicable with weather temperature forecast techniques. - Abstract: This study presents new ambient-temperature-based models for estimating global solar radiation as alternatives to the widely used sunshine-based models owing to the unavailability of sunshine data at all locations around the world. Seventeen new temperature-based models are established, validated and compared with other three models proposed in the literature (the Annandale, Allen and Goodin models) to estimate the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. These models are developed using a 20-year measured dataset of global solar radiation for the case study location (Lat. 30°51′N and long. 29°34′E), and then, the general formulae of the newly suggested models are examined for ten different locations around Egypt. Moreover, the local formulae for the models are established and validated for two coastal locations where the general formulae give inaccurate predictions. Mostly common statistical errors are utilized to evaluate the performance of these models and identify the most accurate model. The obtained results show that the local formula for the most accurate new model provides good predictions for global solar radiation at different locations, especially at coastal sites. Moreover, the local and general formulas of the most accurate temperature-based model also perform better than the two most accurate sunshine-based models from the literature. The quick and accurate estimations of the global solar radiation using this approach can be employed in the design and evaluation of performance for

  18. An integrated artificial neural networks approach for predicting global radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azadeh, A.; Maghsoudi, A.; Sohrabkhani, S.

    2009-01-01

    This article presents an integrated artificial neural network (ANN) approach for predicting solar global radiation by climatological variables. The integrated ANN trains and tests data with multi layer perceptron (MLP) approach which has the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The proposed approach is particularly useful for locations where no available measurement equipment. Also, it considers all related climatological and meteorological parameters as input variables. To show the applicability and superiority of the integrated ANN approach, monthly data were collected for 6 years (1995-2000) in six nominal cities in Iran. Separate model for each city is considered and the quantity of solar global radiation in each city is calculated. Furthermore an integrated ANN model has been introduced for prediction of solar global radiation. The acquired results of the integrated model have shown high accuracy of about 94%. The results of the integrated model have been compared with traditional angstrom's model to show its considerable accuracy. Therefore, the proposed approach can be used as an efficient tool for prediction of solar radiation in the remote and rural locations with no direct measurement equipment.

  19. The role of the Technical Review Panel of the Global Fund to Fight HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria: an analysis of grant recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt-Traub, Guido

    2018-04-01

    The independent Technical Review Panel (TRP) of the Global Fund to Fight HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria is a unique mechanism to review funding proposals and to provide recommendations on their funding. Its functioning and performance have received little attention in the scientific literature. We aimed to identify predictors for TRP recommendations, whether these were in line with the Global Fund's ambition to give priority to countries most in need, and whether they correlated with grant performance. We combined data on proposals and applications under the Rolling Continuation Channel, TRP recommendations and grant implementation during the rounds-based mechanism (2002-2010) with country characteristics. Ordered logistic and OLS regressions were used to identify predictors for per-capita funding requests, TRP recommendations, Global Fund funding and grant performance ratings. We tested for financial suppression of large funding proposals and whether fragile or English-speaking countries performed differently from other countries. We found that funding requests and TRP recommendations were consistent with disease burden, but independent of other country characteristics. Countries with larger populations requested less funding per capita, but there is no evidence of financial suppression by the TRP. Proposals from fragile countries were as likely to be recommended as proposals from other countries, and resulting grants performed equally well except for lower performance of HIV/AIDS grants. English-speaking countries obtained more funding for TB and malaria than other countries. In conclusion, the independent TRP acted in line with the guiding principles of the Global Fund to direct funding to countries most in need without ex ante country allocation. The Global Fund appears to have promoted learning on how to design and implement large-scale programs in fragile and non-fragile countries. Other pooled financing mechanisms may consider TRP operating principles to

  20. Prediction on global warming-up. Chikyu ondanka wo yosokusuru

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noda, A [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)

    1993-05-01

    This paper introduces models to predict global warming-up caused by greenhouse effect of the earth and increase in greenhouse effect gases, and the prediction results. As a result of CO2 doubling experiments using three-dimensional climate models in predicting the global warming-up, a model that predicted a sharp rise in annual average ground temperatures on the entire earth showed a larger increase in precipitation. According to the result of the CO2 doubling experiments using atmosphere-ocean coupling models, it was learned that the temperature rises higher in high latitude regions rather than rising uniformly over the earth on the whole. The fact that the temperature rise when CO2 has been doubled in a CO2 gradually increasing experiment is smaller than in the doubling experiment can be understood as a delaying effect of oceans generated from their thermal inertia. The former experiment showed a remarkable non-symmetry between the Southern and Northern hemispheres, reflecting the effect of the great oceanic circulation. Increase in cloud amount has an effect of either cooling or warming the earth, but the cooling effect surpasses the warming effect reportedly. Sulfuric acid aerosol in the troposphere is thought to influence the process of solar radiation transmitting through the atmosphere and have an effect to cool down the ground surface. 12 refs., 6 figs.

  1. The Network of U.S. Mutual Fund Investments: Diversification, Similarity and Fragility throughout the Global Financial Crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Delpini, Danilo; Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; Riccaboni, Massimo

    2018-01-01

    Network theory proved recently to be useful in the quantification of many properties of financial systems. The analysis of the structure of investment portfolios is a major application since their eventual correlation and overlap impact the actual risk diversification by individual investors. We investigate the bipartite network of US mutual fund portfolios and their assets. We follow its evolution during the Global Financial Crisis and analyse the interplay between diversification, as unders...

  2. Conflict-affected displaced persons need to benefit more from HIV and malaria national strategic plans and Global Fund grants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paik Eugene

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Access to HIV and malaria control programmes for refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs is not only a human rights issue but a public health priority for affected populations and host populations. The primary source of funding for malaria and HIV programmes for many countries is the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund. This article analyses the current HIV and malaria National Strategic Plans (NSPs and Global Fund approved proposals from rounds 1-8 for countries in Africa hosting populations with refugees and/or IDPs to document their inclusion. Methods The review was limited to countries in Africa as they constitute the highest caseload of refugees and IDPs affected by HIV and malaria. Only countries with a refugee and/or IDP population of ≥ 10,000 persons were included. NSPs were retrieved from primary and secondary sources while approved Global Fund proposals were obtained from the organisation's website. Refugee figures were obtained from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees' database and IDP figures from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. The inclusion of refugees and IDPs was classified into three categories: 1 no reference; 2 referenced; and 3 referenced with specific activities. Findings A majority of countries did not mention IDPs (57% compared with 48% for refugees in their HIV NSPs. For malaria, refugees were not included in 47% of NSPs compared with 44% for IDPs. A minority (21-29% of HIV and malaria NSPs referenced and included activities for refugees and IDPs. There were more approved Global Fund proposals for HIV than malaria for countries with both refugees and IDPs, respectively. The majority of countries with ≥10,000 refugees and IDPs did not include these groups in their approved proposals (61%-83% with malaria having a higher rate of exclusion than HIV. Interpretation Countries that have signed the 1951 refugee convention have an obligation

  3. 75 FR 37856 - Lazard Global Total Return and Income Fund, Inc., et al.; Notice of Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-30

    ... would distribute to its respective common shareholders a periodic, level distribution as frequently as... next filed Form N-CSR; and C. The Fund will post prominently a statement on its (or the Investment...

  4. Sovereign wealth funds as special international investors under global financial downfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Drozd

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available An overview of origin, functional orientation and characteristics of sovereign wealth funds is presented. Possibility and necessity of cooperation between Ukraine and such systemic investors is proven.

  5. 77 FR 6152 - Henderson Global Funds, et al.; Notice of Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-07

    ... corporation organized under the laws of the UK, as subadviser to manage the assets of each Fund, with the... the case of an Unaffiliated Investment Company) or as the sponsor (in the case of an Unaffiliated...

  6. Regression Model to Predict Global Solar Irradiance in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hairuniza Ahmed Kutty

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel regression model is developed to estimate the monthly global solar irradiance in Malaysia. The model is developed based on different available meteorological parameters, including temperature, cloud cover, rain precipitate, relative humidity, wind speed, pressure, and gust speed, by implementing regression analysis. This paper reports on the details of the analysis of the effect of each prediction parameter to identify the parameters that are relevant to estimating global solar irradiance. In addition, the proposed model is compared in terms of the root mean square error (RMSE, mean bias error (MBE, and the coefficient of determination (R2 with other models available from literature studies. Seven models based on single parameters (PM1 to PM7 and five multiple-parameter models (PM7 to PM12 are proposed. The new models perform well, with RMSE ranging from 0.429% to 1.774%, R2 ranging from 0.942 to 0.992, and MBE ranging from −0.1571% to 0.6025%. In general, cloud cover significantly affects the estimation of global solar irradiance. However, cloud cover in Malaysia lacks sufficient influence when included into multiple-parameter models although it performs fairly well in single-parameter prediction models.

  7. A Seamless Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Fisher, C. K.; Caylor, K. K.

    2013-12-01

    The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ('From Observations to Decisions') recognizes that 'water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity', and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the development of a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions

  8. Global patterns and predictions of seafloor biomass using random forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Lin Wei

    Full Text Available A comprehensive seafloor biomass and abundance database has been constructed from 24 oceanographic institutions worldwide within the Census of Marine Life (CoML field projects. The machine-learning algorithm, Random Forests, was employed to model and predict seafloor standing stocks from surface primary production, water-column integrated and export particulate organic matter (POM, seafloor relief, and bottom water properties. The predictive models explain 63% to 88% of stock variance among the major size groups. Individual and composite maps of predicted global seafloor biomass and abundance are generated for bacteria, meiofauna, macrofauna, and megafauna (invertebrates and fishes. Patterns of benthic standing stocks were positive functions of surface primary production and delivery of the particulate organic carbon (POC flux to the seafloor. At a regional scale, the census maps illustrate that integrated biomass is highest at the poles, on continental margins associated with coastal upwelling and with broad zones associated with equatorial divergence. Lowest values are consistently encountered on the central abyssal plains of major ocean basins The shift of biomass dominance groups with depth is shown to be affected by the decrease in average body size rather than abundance, presumably due to decrease in quantity and quality of food supply. This biomass census and associated maps are vital components of mechanistic deep-sea food web models and global carbon cycling, and as such provide fundamental information that can be incorporated into evidence-based management.

  9. Global brain dynamics during social exclusion predict subsequent behavioral conformity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasylyshyn, Nick; Hemenway Falk, Brett; Garcia, Javier O; Cascio, Christopher N; O'Donnell, Matthew Brook; Bingham, C Raymond; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Vettel, Jean M; Falk, Emily B

    2018-02-01

    Individuals react differently to social experiences; for example, people who are more sensitive to negative social experiences, such as being excluded, may be more likely to adapt their behavior to fit in with others. We examined whether functional brain connectivity during social exclusion in the fMRI scanner can be used to predict subsequent conformity to peer norms. Adolescent males (n = 57) completed a two-part study on teen driving risk: a social exclusion task (Cyberball) during an fMRI session and a subsequent driving simulator session in which they drove alone and in the presence of a peer who expressed risk-averse or risk-accepting driving norms. We computed the difference in functional connectivity between social exclusion and social inclusion from each node in the brain to nodes in two brain networks, one previously associated with mentalizing (medial prefrontal cortex, temporoparietal junction, precuneus, temporal poles) and another with social pain (dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, anterior insula). Using predictive modeling, this measure of global connectivity during exclusion predicted the extent of conformity to peer pressure during driving in the subsequent experimental session. These findings extend our understanding of how global neural dynamics guide social behavior, revealing functional network activity that captures individual differences.

  10. Downscaling Global Weather Forecast Outputs Using ANN for Flood Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nam Do Hoai

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Downscaling global weather prediction model outputs to individual locations or local scales is a common practice for operational weather forecast in order to correct the model outputs at subgrid scales. This paper presents an empirical-statistical downscaling method for precipitation prediction which uses a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP neural network. The MLP architecture was optimized by considering physical bases that determine the circulation of atmospheric variables. Downscaled precipitation was then used as inputs to the super tank model (runoff model for flood prediction. The case study was conducted for the Thu Bon River Basin, located in Central Vietnam. Study results showed that the precipitation predicted by MLP outperformed that directly obtained from model outputs or downscaled using multiple linear regression. Consequently, flood forecast based on the downscaled precipitation was very encouraging. It has demonstrated as a robust technology, simple to implement, reliable, and universal application for flood prediction through the combination of downscaling model and super tank model.

  11. A Global Overview of Narcotics-Funded Terrorist and Other Extremist Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-05-01

    Comunidades en Conflicto Arauco-Malleco), which is the most radical branch of the Mapuche insurgent movement.300 Method of Funding The FARC’s... mapuches con las Farc,” La Tercera de la Hora [Santiago], March 14, 2000. 301 Gregory A Walker, “Combatting a Criminal Insurgency,” Jane’s

  12. Performance analysis of tracked panel according to predicted global radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, T.P.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, the performance of a south facing single-axis tracked panel was analyzed according to global radiation predicted by empirical model. Mathematic expressions appropriate for single-axis tracking system were derived to calculate the radiation on it. Instantaneous increments of solar energy collected by the tracked panel relative to fixed panel are illustrated. The validity of the empirical model to Taiwan area will also be examined with the actual irradiation data observed in Taipei. The results are summarized as follows: the gains made by the tracked panel relative to a fixed panel are between 20.0% and 33.9% for four specified days of year, between 20.9% and 33.2% for the four seasons and 27.6% over the entire year. For latitudes below 65 deg., the yearly optimal tilt angle of a fixed panel is close to 0.8 times latitude, the irradiation ratio of the tracked panel to the fixed panel is about 1.3, which are smaller than the corresponding values calculated from extraterrestrial radiation, suggesting us that the installation angle should be adjusted toward a flatter angle and that the gain of the tracked panel will reduce while it works in cloudy climate or in air pollution environment. Although the captured radiation increases with the maximal rotation angle of panel, but the benefit on the global radiation case is still not so good as that on extraterrestrial radiation case. The irradiation data observed is much less than the data predicted by the empirical model, however the trend of fitting curve to the observed data is somewhat in agreement with that to the predicted one; the yearly gain is 14.3% when a tracked panel is employed throughout the year.

  13. A global predictive model of carbon in mangrove soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jardine, Sunny L; Siikamäki, Juha V

    2014-01-01

    Mangroves are among the most threatened and rapidly vanishing natural environments worldwide. They provide a wide range of ecosystem services and have recently become known for their exceptional capacity to store carbon. Research shows that mangrove conservation may be a low-cost means of reducing CO 2 emissions. Accordingly, there is growing interest in developing market mechanisms to credit mangrove conservation projects for associated CO 2 emissions reductions. These efforts depend on robust and readily applicable, but currently unavailable, localized estimates of soil carbon. Here, we use over 900 soil carbon measurements, collected in 28 countries by 61 independent studies, to develop a global predictive model for mangrove soil carbon. Using climatological and locational data as predictors, we explore several predictive modeling alternatives, including machine-learning methods. With our predictive model, we construct a global dataset of estimated soil carbon concentrations and stocks on a high-resolution grid (5 arc min). We estimate that the global mangrove soil carbon stock is 5.00 ± 0.94 Pg C (assuming a 1 meter soil depth) and find this stock is highly variable over space. The amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-rich mangroves (approximately 703 ± 38 Mg C ha −1 ) is roughly a 2.6 ± 0.14 times the amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-poor mangroves (approximately 272 ± 49 Mg C ha −1 ). Considerable within country variation in mangrove soil carbon also exists. In Indonesia, the country with the largest mangrove soil carbon stock, we estimate that the most carbon-rich mangroves contain 1.5 ± 0.12 times as much carbon per hectare as the most carbon-poor mangroves. Our results can aid in evaluating benefits from mangrove conservation and designing mangrove conservation policy. Additionally, the results can be used to project changes in mangrove soil carbon stocks based on changing climatological

  14. A global predictive model of carbon in mangrove soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jardine, Sunny L.; Siikamäki, Juha V.

    2014-10-01

    Mangroves are among the most threatened and rapidly vanishing natural environments worldwide. They provide a wide range of ecosystem services and have recently become known for their exceptional capacity to store carbon. Research shows that mangrove conservation may be a low-cost means of reducing CO2 emissions. Accordingly, there is growing interest in developing market mechanisms to credit mangrove conservation projects for associated CO2 emissions reductions. These efforts depend on robust and readily applicable, but currently unavailable, localized estimates of soil carbon. Here, we use over 900 soil carbon measurements, collected in 28 countries by 61 independent studies, to develop a global predictive model for mangrove soil carbon. Using climatological and locational data as predictors, we explore several predictive modeling alternatives, including machine-learning methods. With our predictive model, we construct a global dataset of estimated soil carbon concentrations and stocks on a high-resolution grid (5 arc min). We estimate that the global mangrove soil carbon stock is 5.00 ± 0.94 Pg C (assuming a 1 meter soil depth) and find this stock is highly variable over space. The amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-rich mangroves (approximately 703 ± 38 Mg C ha-1) is roughly a 2.6 ± 0.14 times the amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-poor mangroves (approximately 272 ± 49 Mg C ha-1). Considerable within country variation in mangrove soil carbon also exists. In Indonesia, the country with the largest mangrove soil carbon stock, we estimate that the most carbon-rich mangroves contain 1.5 ± 0.12 times as much carbon per hectare as the most carbon-poor mangroves. Our results can aid in evaluating benefits from mangrove conservation and designing mangrove conservation policy. Additionally, the results can be used to project changes in mangrove soil carbon stocks based on changing climatological predictors, e.g. to

  15. The negative impacts of the global economic downturn on funding decentralised energy in the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finney, Karen N.; Sharifi, Vida N.; Swithenbank, Jim

    2012-01-01

    Over the years, a number of governmental policies have been developed in the UK that offer grants for the installation of distributed energy technologies or financial rewards per unit of electricity/heat generated from renewable and sustainable sources. The current economic climate however has meant that budget cuts have affected almost all government departments; consequently such policies have been adversely impacted. The alterations/modifications to many schemes have resulted in either a reduction in the funding available through these, changes to the eligibility of certain technologies or scales of generation or policy cancellations. The programmes affected include the Feed-In Tariff Scheme, Renewable Heat Incentive and Low Carbon Buildings Programme, among others. The adjustments for these are detailed herein, followed by the impacts these have had on the deployment rates of decentralised energy, especially microgeneration. Since costs are often one of the most significant factors constraining deployment of these technologies, reductions in funding opportunities have made these less financially-viable. Whilst there are still applications for funding under the available schemes, there has been considerably reduced levels of requests for financial support, thus future deployment rates will most likely be negatively affected. The prospects of these technologies in this context are then considered. - Highlights: ► Costs are often a significant barrier limiting distributed energy deployment. ► The economic downturn has reduced funding for policies aiding distributed energy. ► Installing decentralised energy technologies is now less financially-viable. ► This is now starting to negatively affect uptake rates of microgeneration.

  16. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voyant, Cyril; Muselli, Marc; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie-Laure

    2012-01-01

    We propose in this paper an original technique to predict global radiation using a hybrid ARMA/ANN model and data issued from a numerical weather prediction model (NWP). We particularly look at the multi-layer perceptron (MLP). After optimizing our architecture with NWP and endogenous data previously made stationary and using an innovative pre-input layer selection method, we combined it to an ARMA model from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. This model has been used to forecast the hourly global radiation for five places in Mediterranean area. Our technique outperforms classical models for all the places. The nRMSE for our hybrid model MLP/ARMA is 14.9% compared to 26.2% for the naïve persistence predictor. Note that in the standalone ANN case the nRMSE is 18.4%. Finally, in order to discuss the reliability of the forecaster outputs, a complementary study concerning the confidence interval of each prediction is proposed. -- Highlights: ► Time series forecasting with hybrid method based on the use of ALADIN numerical weather model, ANN and ARMA. ► Innovative pre-input layer selection method. ► Combination of optimized MLP and ARMA model obtained from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. ► Stationarity process (method and control) for the global radiation time series.

  17. Can global weed assemblages be used to predict future weeds?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise Morin

    Full Text Available Predicting which plant taxa are more likely to become weeds in a region presents significant challenges to both researchers and government agencies. Often it is done in a qualitative or semi-quantitative way. In this study, we explored the potential of using the quantitative self-organising map (SOM approach to analyse global weed assemblages and estimate likelihoods of plant taxa becoming weeds before and after they have been moved to a new region. The SOM approach examines plant taxa associations by analysing where a taxon is recorded as a weed and what other taxa are recorded as weeds in those regions. The dataset analysed was extracted from a pre-existing, extensive worldwide database of plant taxa recorded as weeds or other related status and, following reformatting, included 187 regions and 6690 plant taxa. To assess the value of the SOM approach we selected Australia as a case study. We found that the key and most important limitation in using such analytical approach lies with the dataset used. The classification of a taxon as a weed in the literature is not often based on actual data that document the economic, environmental and/or social impact of the taxon, but mostly based on human perceptions that the taxon is troublesome or simply not wanted in a particular situation. The adoption of consistent and objective criteria that incorporate a standardized approach for impact assessment of plant taxa will be necessary to develop a new global database suitable to make predictions regarding weediness using methods like SOM. It may however, be more realistic to opt for a classification system that focuses on the invasive characteristics of plant taxa without any inference to impacts, which to be defined would require some level of research to avoid bias from human perceptions and value systems.

  18. Investor responsibility and Norway’s Government Pension FundGlobal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hilde W. Nagell

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This article identifies and critically examines three differentaspects of investor responsibility. First, investors haveresponsibilities toward their clients (the so-called fiduciaryduties. Second, investors are responsible for taking steps toreduce the risk that an investment directly or indirectlycontributes to harm (avoid complicity. Finally, investorsshould take into consideration the symbolic and signallingeffects of an investment decision. This article discusses howthese responsibilities should be interpreted and also howthey play out in practice. Norway’s Government PensionFund is used as a case in point.

  19. The Grand Convergence: Closing the Divide between Public Health Funding and Global Health Needs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Moran

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The Global Health 2035 report notes that the "grand convergence"--closure of the infectious, maternal, and child mortality gap between rich and poor countries--is dependent on research and development (R&D of new drugs, vaccines, diagnostics, and other health tools. However, this convergence (and the R&D underpinning it will first require an even more fundamental convergence of the different worlds of public health and innovation, where a largely historical gap between global health experts and innovation experts is hindering achievement of the grand convergence in health.

  20. Effects of global financial crisis on funding for health development in nineteen countries of the WHO African Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirigia, Joses M; Nganda, Benjamin M; Mwikisa, Chris N; Cardoso, Bernardino

    2011-04-13

    There is ample evidence in Asia and Latin America showing that past economic crises resulted in cuts in expenditures on health, lower utilization of health services, and deterioration of child and maternal nutrition and health outcomes. Evidence on the impact of past economic crises on health sector in Africa is lacking. The objectives of this article are to present the findings of a quick survey conducted among countries of the WHO African Region to monitor the effects of global financial crisis on funding for health development; and to discuss the way forward. This is a descriptive study. A questionnaire was prepared and sent by email to all the 46 Member States in the WHO African Region through the WHO Country Office for facilitation and follow up. The questionnaires were completed by directors of policy and planning in ministries of health. The data were entered and analyzed in Excel spreadsheet. The main limitations of this study were that authors did not ask whether other relevant sectors were consulted in the process of completing the survey questionnaire; and that the overall response rate was low. The main findings were as follows: the response rate was 41.3% (19/46 countries); 36.8% (7/19) indicated they had been notified by the Ministry of Finance that the budget for health would be cut; 15.8% (3/19) had been notified by partners of their intention to cut health funding; 61.1% (11/18) indicated that the prices of medicines had increased recently; 83.3% (15/18) indicated that the prices of basic food stuffs had increased recently; 38.8% (7/18) indicated that their local currency had been devalued against the US dollar; 47.1% (8/17) affirmed that the levels of unemployment had increased since the onset of global financial crisis; and 64.7% (11/17) indicated that the ministry of health had taken some measures already, either in reaction to the global financing crisis, or in anticipation. A rapid assessment, like the one reported in this article, of the

  1. Do AAO-HNSF CORE Grants Predict Future NIH Funding Success?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eloy, Jean Anderson; Svider, Peter F; Kanumuri, Vivek V; Folbe, Adam J; Setzen, Michael; Baredes, Soly

    2014-08-01

    To determine (1) whether academic otolaryngologists who have received an American Academy of Otolaryngology- Head and Neck Surgery Foundation (AAO-HNSF) Centralized Otolaryngology Research Efforts (CORE) grant are more likely to procure future National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding; (2) whether CORE grants or NIH Career Development (K) awards have a stronger association with scholarly impact. Historical cohort. Scholarly impact, as measured by the h-index, publication experience, and prior grant history, were determined for CORE-funded and non-CORE-funded academic otolaryngologists. All individuals were assessed for NIH funding history. Of 192 academic otolaryngologists with a CORE funding history, 39.6% had active or prior NIH awards versus 15.1% of 1002 non-CORE-funded faculty (P productivity than those with CORE funding history. Both cohorts had higher scholarly impact values than previously published figures among academic otolaryngologists, highlighting that both CORE grants and NIH K-grants awards are effective career development resources. © American Academy of Otolaryngology—Head and Neck Surgery Foundation 2014.

  2. Predictive power of Brazilian equity fund performance using R2 as a measure of selectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo dos Santos Guzella

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This paper aimed to investigate the impact of levels of selectivity on the performance of equity funds using a methodology applied for the first time ever (as far as we know in the Brazilian market. As an indicator of the activity level of a fund, we proposed the coefficient of determination (R2 of the regression of its returns over market returns. In total, 867 funds were analyzed in the period between November 2004 and October 2014. The hypothesis tested is that more selective funds perform better to compensate for their higher operating costs. This hypothesis was confirmed in the Brazilian market. Dynamic equally-weighted portfolios of funds were simulated, according to their past R2 and alphas, with monthly rebalancing and 12-month moving windows. The portfolio of the most selective funds had a Sharpe ratio of 0.0494, on a monthly basis, while the portfolio of the least selective funds had a Sharpe ratio of -0.0314. Performance was also higher in evaluations involving excess returns, Jensen’s alpha, and accumulated returns, as well as when compared to randomly selected portfolios. Moreover, past performance (as measured by Jensen’s alpha was also a predictor of future performance. Particularly, the portfolio composed by funds with a higher past alpha and lower past R2 presented a Sharpe ratio of 0.1483 and a Jensen’s alpha of 0.87% (significant at 1%, while the one composed of funds with a lower past alpha and lower activity level presented a Sharpe ratio of -0.0673 and an alpha of -0.32% (also significant at 1%.

  3. A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eden, J. M.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Hawkins, E.; Suckling, E. B.

    2015-12-01

    Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

  4. Funding for tuberculosis research—an urgent crisis of political will, human rights, and global solidarity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Frick

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Tuberculosis (TB killed more people in 2015 than any other single infectious agent, but funding for research to develop better prevention, diagnosis, and treatment methods for TB declined to its lowest level in 7 years. TB research and development (R&D is woefully underfunded, a situation best viewed as a crisis of political will and a failure on the part of governments to see unmet innovation needs in the TB response as a human rights issue requiring immediate action. Over 60% of available money for TB R&D comes from public sources, and 67% of public money comes from a single country: the USA. The election of Donald Trump to the US presidency in November 2016 has introduced great uncertainty into the support that science generally, and TB research in particular, will receive in the coming years. Advocacy on the part of all actors—from civil society to TB-affected communities to scientists themselves—is urgently needed to increase US government support for TB research moving forward.

  5. Funding for tuberculosis research-an urgent crisis of political will, human rights, and global solidarity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frick, Mike

    2017-03-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) killed more people in 2015 than any other single infectious agent, but funding for research to develop better prevention, diagnosis, and treatment methods for TB declined to its lowest level in 7 years. TB research and development (R&D) is woefully underfunded, a situation best viewed as a crisis of political will and a failure on the part of governments to see unmet innovation needs in the TB response as a human rights issue requiring immediate action. Over 60% of available money for TB R&D comes from public sources, and 67% of public money comes from a single country: the USA. The election of Donald Trump to the US presidency in November 2016 has introduced great uncertainty into the support that science generally, and TB research in particular, will receive in the coming years. Advocacy on the part of all actors-from civil society to TB-affected communities to scientists themselves-is urgently needed to increase US government support for TB research moving forward. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. Transforming governance or reinforcing hierarchies and competition: examining the public and hidden transcripts of the Global Fund and HIV in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapilashrami, Anuj; McPake, Barbara

    2013-09-01

    Global health initiatives (GHIs) have gained prominence as innovative and effective policy mechanisms to tackle global health priorities. More recent literature reveals governance-related challenges and their unintended health system effects. Much less attention is received by the relationship between these mechanisms, the ideas that underpin them and the country-level practices they generate. The Global Fund has leveraged significant funding and taken a lead in harmonizing disparate efforts to control HIV/AIDS. Its growing influence in recipient countries makes it a useful case to examine this relationship and evaluate the extent to which the dominant public discourse on Global Fund departs from the hidden resistances and conflicts in its operation. Drawing on insights from ethnographic fieldwork and 70 interviews with multiple stakeholders, this article aims to better understand and reveal the public and the hidden transcript of the Global Fund and its activities in India. We argue that while its public transcript abdicates its role in country-level operations, a critical ethnographic examination of the organization and governance of the Fund in India reveals a contrasting scenario. Its organizing principles prompt diverse actors with conflicting agendas to come together in response to the availability of funds. Multiple and discrete projects emerge, each leveraging control and resources and acting as conduits of power. We examine how management of HIV is punctuated with conflicts of power and interests in a competitive environment set off by the Fund protocol and discuss its system-wide effects. The findings also underscore the need for similar ethnographic research on the financing and policy-making architecture of GHIs.

  7. Tracking Global Fund HIV/AIDS resources used for sexual and reproductive health service integration: case study from Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mookherji, Sangeeta; Ski, Samantha; Huntington, Dale

    2015-05-27

    The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis & Malaria (GF) strives for high value for money, encouraging countries to integrate synergistic services and systems strengthening to maximize investments. The GF needs to show how, and how much, its grants support more than just HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria. Sexual and Reproductive Health (SRH) has been part of HIV/AIDS grants since 2007. Previous studies showed the GF PBF system does not allow resource tracking for SRH integration within HIV/AIDS grants. We present findings from a resource tracking case study using primary data collected at country level. Ethiopia was the study site. We reviewed data from four HIV/AIDS grants from January 2009-June 2011 and categorized SDAs and activities as directly, indirectly, or not related to SRH integration. Data included: GF PBF data; financial, performance, in-depth interview and facility observation data from Ethiopia. All HIV/AIDS grants in Ethiopia support SRH integration activities (12-100%). Using activities within SDAs, expenditures directly supporting SRH integration increased from 25% to 66% for the largest HIV/AIDS grant, and from 21% to 34% for the smaller PMTCT-focused grant. Using SDAs to categorize expenditures underestimated direct investments in SRH integration; activity-based categorization is more accurate. The important finding is that primary data collection could not resolve the limitations in using GF GPR data for resource tracking. The remedy is to require existing activity-based budgets and expenditure reports as part of PBF reporting requirements, and make them available in the grant portfolio database. The GF should do this quickly, as it is a serious shortfall in the GF guiding principle of transparency. Showing high value for money is important for maximizing impact and replenishments. The Global Fund should routinely track HIV/AIDs grant expenditures to disease control, service integration, and overall health systems strengthening. The current PBF system

  8. Massive global ozone loss predicted following regional nuclear conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Michael J.; Toon, Owen B.; Turco, Richard P.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Garcia, Rolando R.

    2008-01-01

    We use a chemistry-climate model and new estimates of smoke produced by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the impact on stratospheric ozone of a regional nuclear war between developing nuclear states involving 100 Hiroshima-size bombs exploded in cities in the northern subtropics. We find column ozone losses in excess of 20% globally, 25–45% at midlatitudes, and 50–70% at northern high latitudes persisting for 5 years, with substantial losses continuing for 5 additional years. Column ozone amounts remain near or <220 Dobson units at all latitudes even after three years, constituting an extratropical “ozone hole.” The resulting increases in UV radiation could impact the biota significantly, including serious consequences for human health. The primary cause for the dramatic and persistent ozone depletion is heating of the stratosphere by smoke, which strongly absorbs solar radiation. The smoke-laden air rises to the upper stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow, so that much of the stratosphere is ultimately heated by the localized smoke injections. Higher stratospheric temperatures accelerate catalytic reaction cycles, particularly those of odd-nitrogen, which destroy ozone. In addition, the strong convection created by rising smoke plumes alters the stratospheric circulation, redistributing ozone and the sources of ozone-depleting gases, including N2O and chlorofluorocarbons. The ozone losses predicted here are significantly greater than previous “nuclear winter/UV spring” calculations, which did not adequately represent stratospheric plume rise. Our results point to previously unrecognized mechanisms for stratospheric ozone depletion. PMID:18391218

  9. Scaling up towards international targets for AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria: contribution of global fund-supported programs in 2011-2015.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Itamar Katz

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The paper projects the contribution to 2011-2015 international targets of three major pandemics by programs in 140 countries funded by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, the largest external financier of tuberculosis and malaria programs and a major external funder of HIV programs in low and middle income countries. DESIGN: Estimates, using past trends, for the period 2011-2015 of the number of persons receiving antiretroviral (ARV treatment, tuberculosis case detection using the internationally approved DOTS strategy, and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs to be delivered by programs in low and middle income countries supported by the Global Fund compared to international targets established by UNAIDS, Stop TB Partnership, Roll Back Malaria Partnership and the World Health Organisation. RESULTS: Global Fund-supported programs are projected to provide ARV treatment to 5.5-5.8 million people, providing 30%-31% of the 2015 international target. Investments in tuberculosis and malaria control will enable reaching in 2015 60%-63% of the international target for tuberculosis case detection and 30%-35% of the ITN distribution target in sub-Saharan Africa. CONCLUSION: Global Fund investments will substantially contribute to the achievement by 2015 of international targets for HIV, TB and malaria. However, additional large scale international and domestic financing is needed if these targets are to be reached by 2015.

  10. Effective Energy Methods for Global Optimization for Biopolymer Structure Prediction

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Shalloway, David

    1998-01-01

    .... Its main strength is that it uncovers and exploits the intrinsic "hidden structures" of biopolymer energy landscapes to efficiently perform global minimization using a hierarchical search procedure...

  11. From Avoidance to Activism: The Responsible Investment Frameworks of the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global, the New Zealand Superannuation Fund and California Public Employees’ Retirement System 2000 – 2016

    OpenAIRE

    Kristensen, Maren Diesen

    2016-01-01

    Socially responsible investing (SRI) has since the late 1990s, grown to become an important concept in the global financial industry. This growth has mainly been led by institutional investors, such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) who, in the early 2000s, became aware of the necessity of behaving as real owners of companies and of adopting a long-term view of investing. As these investors started to embrace SRI, they steered the understanding of SRI away from the original e...

  12. Models for prediction of global solar radiation on horizontal surface ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The estimation of global solar radiation continues to play a fundamental role in solar engineering systems and applications. This paper compares various models for estimating the average monthly global solar radiation on horizontal surface for Akure, Nigeria, using solar radiation and sunshine duration data covering years ...

  13. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Temperature Time Series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global temperature time series provides time series charts using station based observations of daily temperature. These charts provide information about the...

  14. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Precipitation Time Series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global precipitation time series provides time series charts showing observations of daily precipitation as well as accumulated precipitation compared to normal...

  15. The National Politics of Educational Advocacy in the Context of Global Governance: International Funding and Support for Civil Society Engagement in Cambodia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, D. Brent, Jr.; Brehm, Willian C.; Storen, Inga

    2018-01-01

    This paper examines the Civil Society Education Fund's (CSEF) impact on the non-governmental organisation education partnership (NEP) in Cambodia. With financial backing from the World Bank and the Fast Track Initiative, the CSEF is an initiative that is managed internationally by the Global Campaign for Education. Its goal is to help national…

  16. High Predictive Skill of Global Surface Temperature a Year Ahead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folland, C. K.; Colman, A.; Kennedy, J. J.; Knight, J.; Parker, D. E.; Stott, P.; Smith, D. M.; Boucher, O.

    2011-12-01

    We discuss the high skill of real-time forecasts of global surface temperature a year ahead issued by the UK Met Office, and their scientific background. Although this is a forecasting and not a formal attribution study, we show that the main instrumental global annual surface temperature data sets since 1891 are structured consistently with a set of five physical forcing factors except during and just after the second World War. Reconstructions use a multiple application of cross validated linear regression to minimise artificial skill allowing time-varying uncertainties in the contribution of each forcing factor to global temperature to be assessed. Mean cross validated reconstructions for the data sets have total correlations in the range 0.93-0.95,interannual correlations in the range 0.72-0.75 and root mean squared errors near 0.06oC, consistent with observational uncertainties.Three transient runs of the HadCM3 coupled model for 1888-2002 demonstrate quite similar reconstruction skill from similar forcing factors defined appropriately for the model, showing that skilful use of our technique is not confined to observations. The observed reconstructions show that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) likely contributed to the re-commencement of global warming between 1976 and 2010 and to global cooling observed immediately beforehand in 1965-1976. The slowing of global warming in the last decade is likely to be largely due to a phase-delayed response to the downturn in the solar cycle since 2001-2, with no net ENSO contribution. The much reduced trend in 2001-10 is similar in size to other weak decadal temperature trends observed since global warming resumed in the 1970s. The causes of variations in decadal trends can be mostly explained by variations in the strength of the forcing factors. Eleven real-time forecasts of global mean surface temperature for the year ahead for 2000-2010, based on broadly similar methods, provide an independent test of the

  17. REDD and PINC: A new policy framework to fund tropical forests as global 'eco-utilities'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trivedi, M R; Mitchell, A W; Mardas, N; Parker, C [Global Canopy Programme, John Krebs Field Station, Wytham, Oxford, OX2 8QJ (United Kingdom); Watson, J E [University of Queensland, Ecology Centre, Queensland 4072 (Australia); Nobre, A D, E-mail: m.trivedi@globalcanopy.or [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia, INPA, Escritorio Regional do INPA, Sao Jose dos Campos, 12227-010 (Brazil)

    2009-11-01

    Tropical forests are 'eco-utilities' providing critical ecosystem services that underpin food, energy, water and climate security at local to global scales. Currently, these services are unrecognised and unrewarded in international policy and financial frameworks, causing forests to be worth more dead than alive. Much attention is currently focused on REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) and A/R (Afforestation and Reforestation) as mitigation options. In this article we propose an additional mechanism - PINC (Proactive Investment in Natural Capital) - that recognises and rewards the value of ecosystem services provided by standing tropical forests, especially from a climate change adaptation perspective. Using Amazonian forests as a case study we show that PINC could improve the wellbeing of rural and forest-dependent populations, enabling them to cope with the impacts associated with climate change and deforestation. By investing pro-actively in areas where deforestation pressures are currently low, the long-term costs of mitigation and adaptation will be reduced. We suggest a number of ways in which funds could be raised through emerging financial mechanisms to provide positive incentives to maintain standing forests. To develop PINC, a new research and capacity-building agenda is needed that explores the interdependence between communities, the forest eco-utility and the wider economy.

  18. How Should Global Fund Use Value-for-Money Information to Sustain its Investments in Graduating Countries?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kitti Kanpirom

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available It has been debated whether the Global Fund (GF, which is supporting the implementation of programs on the prevention and control of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis (TB and malaria, should consider the value-for-money (VFM for programs/interventions that they are supporting. In this paper, we critically analyze the uses of economic information for GF programs, not only to ensure accountability to their donors but also to support country governments in continuing investment in cost-effective interventions initiated by the GF despite the discontinuation of financial support after graduation. We demonstrate that VFM is not a static property of interventions and may depend on program start-up cost, economies of scales, the improvement of effectiveness and efficiency of providers once the program develops, and acceptance and adherence of the target population. Interventions that are cost-ineffective in the beginning may become cost-effective in later stages. We consider recent GF commitments towards value for money and recommend that the GF supports interventions with proven cost-effectiveness from program initiation as well as interventions that may be cost-effective afterwards. Thus, the GF and country governments should establish mechanisms to monitor cost-effectiveness of interventions invested over time.

  19. Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

    2006-01-01

    The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

  20. Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

    2006-03-01

    The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

  1. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the present...

  2. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Land Surface Air Temperature Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A station observation-based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5 x 0.5 latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the...

  3. A global high-resolution model experiment on the predictability of the atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judt, F.

    2016-12-01

    Forecasting high-impact weather phenomena is one of the most important aspects of numerical weather prediction (NWP). Over the last couple of years, a tremendous increase in computing power has facilitated the advent of global convection-resolving NWP models, which allow for the seamless prediction of weather from local to planetary scales. Unfortunately, the predictability of specific meteorological phenomena in these models is not very well known. This raises questions about which forecast problems are potentially tractable, and what is the value of global convection-resolving model predictions for the end user. To address this issue, we use the Yellowstone supercomputer to conduct a global high-resolution predictability experiment with the recently developed Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). The computing power of Yellowstone enables the model to run at a globally uniform resolution of 4 km with 55 vertical levels (>2 billion grid cells). These simulations, which require 3 million core-hours for the entire experiment, allow for the explicit treatment of organized deep moist convection (i.e., thunderstorm systems). Resolving organized deep moist convection alleviates grave limitations of previous predictability studies, which either used high-resolution limited-area models or global simulations with coarser grids and cumulus parameterization. By computing the error growth characteristics in a set of "identical twin" model runs, the experiment will clarify the intrinsic predictability limits of atmospheric phenomena on a wide range of scales, from severe thunderstorms to global-scale wind patterns that affect the distribution of tropical rainfall. Although a major task by itself, this study is intended to be exploratory work for a future predictability experiment going beyond of what has so far been feasible. We hope to use CISL's new Cheyenne supercomputer to conduct a similar predictability experiments on a global mesh with 1-2 km resolution. This

  4. Global Variance Risk Premium and Forex Return Predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Aloosh, Arash

    2014-01-01

    In a long-run risk model with stochastic volatility and frictionless markets, I express expected forex returns as a function of consumption growth variances and stock variance risk premiums (VRPs)—the difference between the risk-neutral and statistical expectations of market return variation. This provides a motivation for using the forward-looking information available in stock market volatility indices to predict forex returns. Empirically, I find that stock VRPs predict forex returns at a ...

  5. Accelerated Prediction of the Polar Ice and Global Ocean (APPIGO)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    APPIGO) Eric Chassignet Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies (COAPS) Florida State University PO Box 3062840 Tallahassee, FL 32306...PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Florida Atlantic University,Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies (COAPS),PO Box 3062840...Cavalieri, D. J., C. I. Parkinson , P. Gloersen, and H. J. Zwally. 1997. Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Concentrations from Multichannel Passive-Microwave

  6. A predictive framework to understand forest responses to global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, Sean M; Dietze, Michael C; Hersh, Michelle H; Moran, Emily V; Clark, James S

    2009-04-01

    Forests are one of Earth's critical biomes. They have been shown to respond strongly to many of the drivers that are predicted to change natural systems over this century, including climate, introduced species, and other anthropogenic influences. Predicting how different tree species might respond to this complex of forces remains a daunting challenge for forest ecologists. Yet shifts in species composition and abundance can radically influence hydrological and atmospheric systems, plant and animal ranges, and human populations, making this challenge an important one to address. Forest ecologists have gathered a great deal of data over the past decades and are now using novel quantitative and computational tools to translate those data into predictions about the fate of forests. Here, after a brief review of the threats to forests over the next century, one of the more promising approaches to making ecological predictions is described: using hierarchical Bayesian methods to model forest demography and simulating future forests from those models. This approach captures complex processes, such as seed dispersal and mortality, and incorporates uncertainty due to unknown mechanisms, data problems, and parameter uncertainty. After describing the approach, an example by simulating drought for a southeastern forest is offered. Finally, there is a discussion of how this approach and others need to be cast within a framework of prediction that strives to answer the important questions posed to environmental scientists, but does so with a respect for the challenges inherent in predicting the future of a complex biological system.

  7. Prediction of monthly average global solar radiation based on statistical distribution of clearness index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayodele, T.R.; Ogunjuyigbe, A.S.O.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, probability distribution of clearness index is proposed for the prediction of global solar radiation. First, the clearness index is obtained from the past data of global solar radiation, then, the parameters of the appropriate distribution that best fit the clearness index are determined. The global solar radiation is thereafter predicted from the clearness index using inverse transformation of the cumulative distribution function. To validate the proposed method, eight years global solar radiation data (2000–2007) of Ibadan, Nigeria are used to determine the parameters of appropriate probability distribution for clearness index. The calculated parameters are then used to predict the future monthly average global solar radiation for the following year (2008). The predicted values are compared with the measured values using four statistical tests: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and the coefficient of determination (R"2). The proposed method is also compared to the existing regression models. The results show that logistic distribution provides the best fit for clearness index of Ibadan and the proposed method is effective in predicting the monthly average global solar radiation with overall RMSE of 0.383 MJ/m"2/day, MAE of 0.295 MJ/m"2/day, MAPE of 2% and R"2 of 0.967. - Highlights: • Distribution of clearnes index is proposed for prediction of global solar radiation. • The clearness index is obtained from the past data of global solar radiation. • The parameters of distribution that best fit the clearness index are determined. • Solar radiation is predicted from the clearness index using inverse transformation. • The method is effective in predicting the monthly average global solar radiation.

  8. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu; Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon

    2016-01-01

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  9. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon [Mokpo National University, Muan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  10. Predicting malicious behavior tools and techniques for ensuring global security

    CERN Document Server

    Jackson, Gary M

    2012-01-01

    A groundbreaking exploration of how to identify and fight security threats at every level This revolutionary book combines real-world security scenarios with actual tools to predict and prevent incidents of terrorism, network hacking, individual criminal behavior, and more. Written by an expert with intelligence officer experience who invented the technology, it explores the keys to understanding the dark side of human nature, various types of security threats (current and potential), and how to construct a methodology to predict and combat malicious behavior. The companion CD demonstrates ava

  11. For how long can we predict the weather? - Insights into atmospheric predictability from global convection-allowing simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judt, Falko

    2017-04-01

    A tremendous increase in computing power has facilitated the advent of global convection-resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Although this technological breakthrough allows for the seamless prediction of weather from local to global scales, the predictability of multiscale weather phenomena in these models is not very well known. To address this issue, we conducted a global high-resolution (4-km) predictability experiment using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), a state-of-the-art global NWP model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The goals of this experiment are to investigate error growth from convective to planetary scales and to quantify the intrinsic, scale-dependent predictability limits of atmospheric motions. The globally uniform resolution of 4 km allows for the explicit treatment of organized deep moist convection, alleviating grave limitations of previous predictability studies that either used high-resolution limited-area models or global simulations with coarser grids and cumulus parameterization. Error growth is analyzed within the context of an "identical twin" experiment setup: the error is defined as the difference between a 20-day long "nature run" and a simulation that was perturbed with small-amplitude noise, but is otherwise identical. It is found that in convectively active regions, errors grow by several orders of magnitude within the first 24 h ("super-exponential growth"). The errors then spread to larger scales and begin a phase of exponential growth after 2-3 days when contaminating the baroclinic zones. After 16 days, the globally averaged error saturates—suggesting that the intrinsic limit of atmospheric predictability (in a general sense) is about two weeks, which is in line with earlier estimates. However, error growth rates differ between the tropics and mid-latitudes as well as between the troposphere and stratosphere, highlighting that atmospheric predictability is a complex

  12. Funding innovation

    CERN Multimedia

    Marina Giampietro

    2012-01-01

    For the first time, six knowledge and technology transfer activities are set to benefit from a dedicated fund made available by the Knowledge Transfer group. This initiative cements CERN’s commitment to sharing its technological knowledge and expertise with society.   GEM detectors for flame detection and early earthquake prediction, radio-frequency absorbers for energy recovery, and exotic radioisotopes for medical applications are among the projects funded by the recently introduced KT Fund. “CERN’s scientific programme generates a considerable amount of intellectual property, a natural driver for innovation,” explains Giovanni Anelli, Head of the Knowledge Transfer Group. “Very often, though, financial support is needed to bring the newly-born technologies a step further and make them ready for transfer to other research institutes or to companies.” This is where the KT fund comes into play. It provides vital support in the early sta...

  13. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NCEP-Global Forecast System (GFS) Precipitation Forecast Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast precipitation data at 37.5km resolution is created at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the purpose of near real-time...

  14. Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) provides numerical guidance and products in support of a wide range of Navy oceanographic and...

  15. Current medical research funding and frameworks are insufficient to address the health risks of global environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, Kristie L; Semenza, Jan C; Rocklöv, Joacim

    2016-11-11

    Three major international agreements signed in 2015 are key milestones for transitioning to more sustainable and resilient societies: the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction; and the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Together, these agreements underscore the critical importance of understanding and managing the health risks of global changes, to ensure continued population health improvements in the face of significant social and environmental change over this century. BODY: Funding priorities of major health institutions and organizations in the U.S. and Europe do not match research investments with needs to inform implementation of these international agreements. In the U.S., the National Institutes of Health commit 0.025 % of their annual research budget to climate change and health. The European Union Seventh Framework Programme committed 0.08 % of the total budget to climate change and health; the amount committed under Horizon 2020 was 0.04 % of the budget. Two issues apparently contributing to this mismatch are viewing climate change primarily as an environmental problem, and therefore the responsibility of other research streams; and narrowly framing research into managing the health risks of climate variability and change from the perspective of medicine and traditional public health. This reductionist, top-down perspective focuses on proximate, individual level risk factors. While highly successful in reducing disease burdens, this framing is insufficient to protect health and well-being over a century that will be characterized by profound social and environmental changes. International commitments in 2015 underscored the significant challenges societies will face this century from climate change and other global changes. However, the low priority placed on understanding and managing the associated health risks by national and international research

  16. Adoption of rapid diagnostic tests for the diagnosis of malaria, a preliminary analysis of the Global Fund program data, 2005 to 2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinkou Zhao

    Full Text Available The World Health Organization Guidelines for the Treatment of Malaria, in 2006 and 2010, recommend parasitological confirmation of malaria before commencing treatment. Although microscopy has been the mainstay of malaria diagnostics, the magnitude of diagnostic scale up required to follow the Guidelines suggests that rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs will be a large component. This study analyzes the adoption of rapid diagnostic testing in malaria programs supported by the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund, the leading international funder of malaria control globally.We analyzed, for the period 2005 to 2010, Global Fund programmatic data for 81 countries on the quantity of RDTs planned; actual quantities of RDTs and artemisinin-based combination treatments (ACTs procured in 2009 and 2010; RDT-related activities including RDTs distributed, RDTs used, total diagnostic tests including RDTs and microscopy performed, health facilities equipped with RDTs; personnel trained to perform rapid diagnostic malaria test; and grant budgets allocated to malaria diagnosis. In 2010, diagnosis accounted for 5.2% of malaria grant budget. From 2005 to 2010, the procurement plans include148 million RDTs through 96 malaria grants in 81 countries. Around 115 million parasitological tests, including RDTs, had reportedly been performed from 2005 to 2010. Over this period, 123,132 health facilities were equipped with RDTs and 137,140 health personnel had been trained to perform RDT examinations. In 2009 and 2010, 41 million RDTs and 136 million ACTs were purchased. The ratio of procured RDTs to ACTs was 0.26 in 2009 and 0.34 in 2010.Global Fund financing has enabled 81 malaria-endemic countries to adopt WHO guidelines by investing in RDTs for malaria diagnosis, thereby helping improve case management of acute febrile illness in children. However, roll-out of parasitological diagnosis lags behind the roll-out of ACT-based treatment, and will

  17. Global Brain Dynamics During Social Exclusion Predict Subsequent Behavioral Conformity

    OpenAIRE

    Wasylyshyn, Nick; Hemenway, Brett; Garcia, Javier O.; Cascio, Christopher N.; O'Donnell, Matthew Brook; Bingham, C. Raymond; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Vettel, Jean M.; Falk, Emily B.

    2017-01-01

    Individuals react differently to social experiences; for example, people who are more sensitive to negative social experiences, such as being excluded, may be more likely to adapt their behavior to fit in with others. We examined whether functional brain connectivity during social exclusion in the fMRI scanner can be used to predict subsequent conformity to peer norms. Adolescent males (N = 57) completed a two-part study on teen driving risk: a social exclusion task (Cyberball) during an fMRI...

  18. Global discriminative learning for higher-accuracy computational gene prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel Bernal

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Most ab initio gene predictors use a probabilistic sequence model, typically a hidden Markov model, to combine separately trained models of genomic signals and content. By combining separate models of relevant genomic features, such gene predictors can exploit small training sets and incomplete annotations, and can be trained fairly efficiently. However, that type of piecewise training does not optimize prediction accuracy and has difficulty in accounting for statistical dependencies among different parts of the gene model. With genomic information being created at an ever-increasing rate, it is worth investigating alternative approaches in which many different types of genomic evidence, with complex statistical dependencies, can be integrated by discriminative learning to maximize annotation accuracy. Among discriminative learning methods, large-margin classifiers have become prominent because of the success of support vector machines (SVM in many classification tasks. We describe CRAIG, a new program for ab initio gene prediction based on a conditional random field model with semi-Markov structure that is trained with an online large-margin algorithm related to multiclass SVMs. Our experiments on benchmark vertebrate datasets and on regions from the ENCODE project show significant improvements in prediction accuracy over published gene predictors that use intrinsic features only, particularly at the gene level and on genes with long introns.

  19. Thinking Out of the Box: A Green and Social Climate Fund; Comment on “Politics, Power, Poverty and Global Health: Systems and Frames”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorik Ooms

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Solomon Benatar’s paper “Politics, Power, Poverty and Global Health: Systems and Frames” examines the inequitable state of global health challenging readers to extend the discourse on global health beyond conventional boundaries by addressing the interconnectedness of planetary life. Our response explores existing models of international cooperation, assessing how modifying them may achieve the twin goals of ensuring healthy people and planet. First, we address why the inequality reducing post World War II European welfare model, if implemented stateby-state, is unfit for reducing global inequality and respecting environmental boundaries. Second, we argue that to advance beyond the ‘Westphalian,’ human centric thinking integral to global inequality and climate change requires challenging the logic of global economic integration and exploring the politically infeasible. In conclusion, we propose social policy focused changes to the World Trade Organisation (WTO and a Green and Social Climate Fund, financed by new global greenhouse gas charges, both of which could advance human and planetary health. Recent global political developments may offer a small window of opportunity for out of the box proposals that could be advanced by concerted and united advocacy by global health activists, environmental activists, human rights activists, and trade unions.

  20. Operational research within a Global Fund supported tuberculosis project in India: why, how and its contribution towards change in policy and practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagili, Karuna D; Satyanarayana, Srinath; Chadha, Sarabjit S; Wilson, Nevin C; Kumar, Ajay M V; Oeltmann, John E; Chadha, Vineet K; Nagaraja, Sharath Burugina; Ghosh, Smita; Q Lo, Terrence; Volkmann, Tyson; Willis, Matthew; Shringarpure, Kalpita; Reddy, Ravichandra Chinnappa; Kumar, Prahlad; Nair, Sreenivas A; Rao, Raghuram; Yassin, Mohammed; Mwangala, Perry; Zachariah, Rony; Tonsing, Jamhoih; Harries, Anthony D; Khaparde, Sunil

    2018-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background: The Global Fund encourages operational research (OR) in all its grants; however very few reports describe this aspect. In India, Project Axshya was supported by a Global Fund grant to improve the reach and visibility of the government Tuberculosis (TB) services among marginalised and vulnerable communities. OR was incorporated to build research capacity of professionals working with the national TB programme and to generate evidence to inform policies and practices. Objectives: To describe how Project Axshya facilitated building OR capacity within the country, helped in addressing several TB control priority research questions, documented project activities and their outcomes, and influenced policy and practice. Methods: From September 2010 to September 2016, three key OR-related activities were implemented. First, practical output-oriented modular training courses were conducted (n = 3) to build research capacity of personnel involved in the TB programme, co-facilitated by The Union, in collaboration with the national TB programme, WHO country office and CDC, Atlanta. Second, two large-scale Knowledge, Attitude and Practice (KAP) surveys were conducted at baseline and mid-project to assess the changes pertaining to TB knowledge, attitudes and practices among the general population, TB patients and health care providers over the project period. Third, studies were conducted to describe the project’s core activities and outcomes. Results: In the training courses, 44 participant teams were supported to develop research protocols on topics of national priority, resulting in 28 peer-reviewed scientific publications. The KAP surveys and description of project activities resulted in 14 peer-reviewed publications. Of the published papers at least 12 have influenced change in policy or practice. Conclusions: OR within a Global Fund supported TB project has resulted in building OR capacity, facilitating research in areas of national priority and

  1. Predicting mesh density for adaptive modelling of the global atmosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Hilary

    2009-11-28

    The shallow water equations are solved using a mesh of polygons on the sphere, which adapts infrequently to the predicted future solution. Infrequent mesh adaptation reduces the cost of adaptation and load-balancing and will thus allow for more accurate mapping on adaptation. We simulate the growth of a barotropically unstable jet adapting the mesh every 12 h. Using an adaptation criterion based largely on the gradient of the vorticity leads to a mesh with around 20 per cent of the cells of a uniform mesh that gives equivalent results. This is a similar proportion to previous studies of the same test case with mesh adaptation every 1-20 min. The prediction of the mesh density involves solving the shallow water equations on a coarse mesh in advance of the locally refined mesh in order to estimate where features requiring higher resolution will grow, decay or move to. The adaptation criterion consists of two parts: that resolved on the coarse mesh, and that which is not resolved and so is passively advected on the coarse mesh. This combination leads to a balance between resolving features controlled by the large-scale dynamics and maintaining fine-scale features.

  2. Efficient prediction of human protein-protein interactions at a global scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoenrock, Andrew; Samanfar, Bahram; Pitre, Sylvain; Hooshyar, Mohsen; Jin, Ke; Phillips, Charles A; Wang, Hui; Phanse, Sadhna; Omidi, Katayoun; Gui, Yuan; Alamgir, Md; Wong, Alex; Barrenäs, Fredrik; Babu, Mohan; Benson, Mikael; Langston, Michael A; Green, James R; Dehne, Frank; Golshani, Ashkan

    2014-12-10

    Our knowledge of global protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks in complex organisms such as humans is hindered by technical limitations of current methods. On the basis of short co-occurring polypeptide regions, we developed a tool called MP-PIPE capable of predicting a global human PPI network within 3 months. With a recall of 23% at a precision of 82.1%, we predicted 172,132 putative PPIs. We demonstrate the usefulness of these predictions through a range of experiments. The speed and accuracy associated with MP-PIPE can make this a potential tool to study individual human PPI networks (from genomic sequences alone) for personalized medicine.

  3. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richardson, Andrew D. [Harvard College, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  4. Transitional states in marine fisheries: adapting to predicted global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacNeil, M Aaron; Graham, Nicholas A J; Cinner, Joshua E; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Loring, Philip A; Jennings, Simon; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Fisk, Aaron T; McClanahan, Tim R

    2010-11-27

    Global climate change has the potential to substantially alter the production and community structure of marine fisheries and modify the ongoing impacts of fishing. Fish community composition is already changing in some tropical, temperate and polar ecosystems, where local combinations of warming trends and higher environmental variation anticipate the changes likely to occur more widely over coming decades. Using case studies from the Western Indian Ocean, the North Sea and the Bering Sea, we contextualize the direct and indirect effects of climate change on production and biodiversity and, in turn, on the social and economic aspects of marine fisheries. Climate warming is expected to lead to (i) yield and species losses in tropical reef fisheries, driven primarily by habitat loss; (ii) community turnover in temperate fisheries, owing to the arrival and increasing dominance of warm-water species as well as the reduced dominance and departure of cold-water species; and (iii) increased diversity and yield in Arctic fisheries, arising from invasions of southern species and increased primary production resulting from ice-free summer conditions. How societies deal with such changes will depend largely on their capacity to adapt--to plan and implement effective responses to change--a process heavily influenced by social, economic, political and cultural conditions.

  5. Rating mutual funds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bechmann, Ken L.; Rangvid, Jesper

    2007-01-01

    We develop a new rating of mutual funds: the atpRating. The atpRating assigns crowns to each individual mutual fund based upon the costs an investor pays when investing in the fund in relation to what it would cost to invest in the fund's peers. Within each investment category, the rating assigns...... the return of a fund in a certain year generally contains only little information about the future return that the fund will generate. Finally, we have information on the investments in different mutual funds made by a small subgroup of investors known to have been exposed to both the atp...... five crowns to funds with the lowest costs and one crown to funds with the highest costs. We investigate the ability of the atpRating to predict the future performance of a fund. We find that an investor who has invested in the funds with the lowest costs within an investment category would have...

  6. Picking Funds with Confidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grønborg, Niels Strange; Lunde, Asger; Timmermann, Allan

    We present a new approach to selecting active mutual funds that uses both holdings and return information to eliminate funds with predicted inferior performance through a sequence of pair-wise comparisons. Our methodology determines both the number of skilled funds and their identity, funds...... identified ex-ante as being superior earn substantially higher risk-adjusted returns than top funds identified by conventional alpha ranking methods. Importantly, we find strong evidence of variation in the breadth of the set of funds identified as superior, as well as fluctuations in the style and industry...... exposures of such funds over time and across different volatility states....

  7. Prospects for development of unified global flood observation and prediction systems (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    Floods are among the most damaging of natural hazards, with global flood losses in 2011 alone estimated to have exceeded $100B. Historically, flood economic damages have been highest in the developed world (due in part to encroachment on historical flood plains), but loss of life, and human impacts have been greatest in the developing world. However, as the 2011 Thailand floods show, industrializing countries, many of which do not have well developed flood protection systems, are increasingly vulnerable to economic damages as they become more industrialized. At present, unified global flood observation and prediction systems are in their infancy; notwithstanding that global weather forecasting is a mature field. The summary for this session identifies two evolving capabilities that hold promise for development of more sophisticated global flood forecast systems: global hydrologic models and satellite remote sensing (primarily of precipitation, but also of flood inundation). To this I would add the increasing sophistication and accuracy of global precipitation analysis (and forecast) fields from numerical weather prediction models. In this brief overview, I will review progress in all three areas, and especially the evolution of hydrologic data assimilation which integrates modeling and data sources. I will also comment on inter-governmental and inter-agency cooperation, and related issues that have impeded progress in the development and utilization of global flood observation and prediction systems.

  8. The National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK): From accumulation to stress-test to global future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalyuzhnova, Yelena, E-mail: y.kaluyzhnova@reading.ac.uk [Centre for Euro Asian Studies, University of Reading, P.O. Box 218, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6AA (United Kingdom)

    2011-10-15

    Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) have different titles, goals and rules, but they share the underlying objective of helping governments deal with the problems created by large and variable revenues (mainly from energy or other commodity related sectors). In Kazakhstan, such a fund (the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK)) was established in 2000. This fund operates as both a stabilisation and a savings fund. The first test for the NFRK was 2007-2009 financial crisis, where the NFRK 'saved' the economy and guarantied its speedy recovery. The paper analyses the NFRK's operation up to 2007 and during the crisis years 2007-9, before drawing conclusions and implications for the future. Between 2001 and 2007 the NFRK conservatively accumulated assets, which proved to be useful in limiting the impact of the post-2007 crisis. However, the pre-2007 experience indicated structural weaknesses associated with discretionary executive authority and non-transparency. The paper concludes by observing that this history has created significant challenges for the future. - Highlights: > Expenditures of resource revenues should be consistent with the government's long-term plan to save for the future. > A system of indicators for the non-resource deficit is required. > Domestic investment provides more stability and economic resilience. > A transparent and accountable governance structure of the NFRK is required.

  9. The National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK): From accumulation to stress-test to global future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalyuzhnova, Yelena

    2011-01-01

    Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) have different titles, goals and rules, but they share the underlying objective of helping governments deal with the problems created by large and variable revenues (mainly from energy or other commodity related sectors). In Kazakhstan, such a fund (the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK)) was established in 2000. This fund operates as both a stabilisation and a savings fund. The first test for the NFRK was 2007-2009 financial crisis, where the NFRK 'saved' the economy and guarantied its speedy recovery. The paper analyses the NFRK's operation up to 2007 and during the crisis years 2007-9, before drawing conclusions and implications for the future. Between 2001 and 2007 the NFRK conservatively accumulated assets, which proved to be useful in limiting the impact of the post-2007 crisis. However, the pre-2007 experience indicated structural weaknesses associated with discretionary executive authority and non-transparency. The paper concludes by observing that this history has created significant challenges for the future. - Highlights: → Expenditures of resource revenues should be consistent with the government's long-term plan to save for the future. → A system of indicators for the non-resource deficit is required. → Domestic investment provides more stability and economic resilience. → A transparent and accountable governance structure of the NFRK is required.

  10. Managing multiple funding streams and agendas to achieve local and global health and research objectives: lessons from the field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Charles B; Sikazwe, Izukanji; Raelly, Roselyne L; Freeman, Bethany L; Wambulawae, Inonge; Silwizya, Geoffrey; Topp, Stephanie M; Chilengi, Roma; Henostroza, German; Kapambwe, Sharon; Simbeye, Darius; Sibajene, Sheila; Chi, Harmony; Godfrey, Katy; Chi, Benjamin; Moore, Carolyn Bolton

    2014-01-01

    Multiple funding sources provide research and program implementation organizations a broader base of funding and facilitate synergy, but also entail challenges that include varying stakeholder expectations, unaligned grant cycles, and highly variable reporting requirements. Strong governance and strategic planning are essential to ensure alignment of goals and agendas. Systems to track budgets and outputs, as well as procurement and human resources are required. A major goal of funders is to transition leadership and operations to local ownership. This article details successful approaches used by the newly independent nongovernmental organization, the Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia.

  11. Rating Mutual Funds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bechmann, Ken L.; Rangvid, Jesper

    We develop a new rating of mutual funds: the atpRating. The atpRating assigns crowns to each individual mutual fund based upon the costs an investor pays when investing in the fund in relation to what it would cost to invest in the fund’s peers. Within each investment category, the rating assigns......, whereas the return of a fund in a certain year generally contains only little information about the future return that the fund will generate. Finally, we have information on the investments in different mutual funds made by a small subgroup of investors known to have been exposed to both the atp...... five crowns to funds with the lowest costs and one crown to funds with the highest costs. We investigate the ability of the atpRating to predict the future performance of a fund. We find that an investor who has invested in the funds with the lowest costs within an investment category would have...

  12. Who pays for cooperation in global health? A comparative analysis of WHO, the World Bank, the Global Fund to Fight HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, Chelsea; Sridhar, Devi

    2017-07-15

    In this report we assess who pays for cooperation in global health through an analysis of the financial flows of WHO, the World Bank, the Global Fund to Fight HIV/AIDS, TB and Malaria, and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. The past few decades have seen the consolidation of influence in the disproportionate roles the USA, UK, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation have had in financing three of these four institutions. Current financing flows in all four case study institutions allow donors to finance and deliver assistance in ways that they can more closely control and monitor at every stage. We highlight three major trends in global health governance more broadly that relate to this development: towards more discretionary funding and away from core or longer-term funding; towards defined multi-stakeholder governance and away from traditional government-centred representation and decision-making; and towards narrower mandates or problem-focused vertical initiatives and away from broader systemic goals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service: facilitating the prediction of air quality from global to local scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelen, R. J.; Peuch, V. H.

    2017-12-01

    The European Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) operationally provides daily forecasts of global atmospheric composition and regional air quality. The global forecasting system is using ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), which is used for numerical weather prediction and which has been extended with modules for atmospheric chemistry, aerosols and greenhouse gases. The regional forecasts are produced by an ensemble of seven operational European air quality models that take their boundary conditions from the global system and provide an ensemble median with ensemble spread as their main output. Both the global and regional forecasting systems are feeding their output into air quality models on a variety of scales in various parts of the world. We will introduce the CAMS service chain and provide illustrations of its use in downstream applications. Both the usage of the daily forecasts and the usage of global and regional reanalyses will be addressed.

  14. Are climate-related changes to the character of global-mean precipitation predictable?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephens, Graeme L; Hu, Yongxiang

    2010-01-01

    The physical basis for the change in global-mean precipitation projected to occur with the warming associated with increased greenhouse gases is discussed. The expected increases to column water vapor W control the rate of increase of global precipitation accumulation through its affect on the planet's energy balance. The key role played by changes to downward longwave radiation controlled by this changing water vapor is emphasized. The basic properties of molecular absorption by water vapor dictate that the fractional rate of increase of global-mean precipitation must be significantly less that the fractional rate of increase in water vapor and it is further argued that this reduced rate of precipitation increase implies that the timescale for water re-cycling is increased in the global mean. This further implies less frequent precipitation over a fixed period of time, and the intensity of these less frequent precipitating events must subsequently increase in the mean to realize the increased global accumulation. These changes to the character of global-mean precipitation, predictable consequences of equally predictable changes to W, apply only to the global-mean state and not to the regional or local scale changes in precipitation.

  15. Are pilot trials useful for predicting randomisation and attrition rates in definitive studies: A review of publicly funded trials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitehead, Amy; Pottrill, Edward; Julious, Steven A; Walters, Stephen J

    2018-01-01

    Background/aims: External pilot trials are recommended for testing the feasibility of main or confirmatory trials. However, there is little evidence that progress in external pilot trials actually predicts randomisation and attrition rates in the main trial. To assess the use of external pilot trials in trial design, we compared randomisation and attrition rates in publicly funded randomised controlled trials with rates in their pilots. Methods: Randomised controlled trials for which there was an external pilot trial were identified from reports published between 2004 and 2013 in the Health Technology Assessment Journal. Data were extracted from published papers, protocols and reports. Bland–Altman plots and descriptive statistics were used to investigate the agreement of randomisation and attrition rates between the full and external pilot trials. Results: Of 561 reports, 41 were randomised controlled trials with pilot trials and 16 met criteria for a pilot trial with sufficient data. Mean attrition and randomisation rates were 21.1% and 50.4%, respectively, in the pilot trials and 16.8% and 65.2% in the main. There was minimal bias in the pilot trial when predicting the main trial attrition and randomisation rate. However, the variation was large: the mean difference in the attrition rate between the pilot and main trial was −4.4% with limits of agreement of −37.1% to 28.2%. Limits of agreement for randomisation rates were −47.8% to 77.5%. Conclusion: Results from external pilot trials to estimate randomisation and attrition rates should be used with caution as comparison of the difference in the rates between pilots and their associated full trial demonstrates high variability. We suggest using internal pilot trials wherever appropriate. PMID:29361833

  16. NOAA's National Air Quality Predictions and Development of Aerosol and Atmospheric Composition Prediction Components for the Next Generation Global Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stajner, I.; Hou, Y. T.; McQueen, J.; Lee, P.; Stein, A. F.; Tong, D.; Pan, L.; Huang, J.; Huang, H. C.; Upadhayay, S.

    2016-12-01

    NOAA provides operational air quality predictions using the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC): ozone and wildfire smoke for the United States and airborne dust for the contiguous 48 states at http://airquality.weather.gov. NOAA's predictions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) became publicly available in February 2016. Ozone and PM2.5 predictions are produced using a system that operationally links the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with meteorological inputs from the North American mesoscale forecast Model (NAM). Smoke and dust predictions are provided using the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. Current NAQFC focus is on updating CMAQ to version 5.0.2, improving PM2.5 predictions, and updating emissions estimates, especially for NOx using recently observed trends. Wildfire smoke emissions from a newer version of the USFS BlueSky system are being included in a new configuration of the NAQFC NAM-CMAQ system, which is re-run for the previous 24 hours when the wildfires were observed from satellites, to better represent wildfire emissions prior to initiating predictions for the next 48 hours. In addition, NOAA is developing the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) to represent the earth system for extended weather prediction. NGGPS will include a representation of atmospheric dynamics, physics, aerosols and atmospheric composition as well as coupling with ocean, wave, ice and land components. NGGPS is being developed with a broad community involvement, including community developed components and academic research to develop and test potential improvements for potentially inclusion in NGGPS. Several investigators at NOAA's research laboratories and in academia are working to improve the aerosol and gaseous chemistry representation for NGGPS, to develop and evaluate the representation of atmospheric composition, and to establish and improve the coupling with radiation and microphysics

  17. Global assessment of predictability of water availability: A bivariate probabilistic Budyko analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Weiguang; Fu, Jianyu

    2018-02-01

    Estimating continental water availability is of great importance for water resources management, in terms of maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining society development. To more accurately quantify the predictability of water availability, on the basis of univariate probabilistic Budyko framework, a bivariate probabilistic Budyko approach was developed using copula-based joint distribution model for considering the dependence between parameter ω of Wang-Tang's equation and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and was applied globally. The results indicate the predictive performance in global water availability is conditional on the climatic condition. In comparison with simple univariate distribution, the bivariate one produces the lower interquartile range under the same global dataset, especially in the regions with higher NDVI values, highlighting the importance of developing the joint distribution by taking into account the dependence structure of parameter ω and NDVI, which can provide more accurate probabilistic evaluation of water availability.

  18. The Prediction of States' PK-12 Funding Effort and Distribution Based on Their Ideological Makeups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malin, Joel R.

    2016-01-01

    States differ markedly in their funding for public schools, both in terms of the fiscal effort their citizens demonstrate and the progressivity with which funds are distributed. Yet, less is known about why different states have enacted such different policies and financing systems. In this study, the relationships between a measure of states'…

  19. The impact of global nuclear mass model uncertainties on r-process abundance predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mumpower M.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Rapid neutron capture or ‘r-process’ nucleosynthesis may be responsible for half the production of heavy elements above iron on the periodic table. Masses are one of the most important nuclear physics ingredients that go into calculations of r-process nucleosynthesis as they enter into the calculations of reaction rates, decay rates, branching ratios and Q-values. We explore the impact of uncertainties in three nuclear mass models on r-process abundances by performing global monte carlo simulations. We show that root-mean-square (rms errors of current mass models are large so that current r-process predictions are insufficient in predicting features found in solar residuals and in r-process enhanced metal poor stars. We conclude that the reduction of global rms errors below 100 keV will allow for more robust r-process predictions.

  20. Potential decadal predictability and its sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization in a global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koenigk, Torben; Caian, Mihaela; Doescher, Ralf; Wyser, Klaus [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Centre, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Koenig Beatty, Christof [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

    2012-06-15

    Decadal prediction is one focus of the upcoming 5th IPCC Assessment report. To be able to interpret the results and to further improve the decadal predictions it is important to investigate the potential predictability in the participating climate models. This study analyzes the upper limit of climate predictability on decadal time scales and its dependency on sea ice albedo parameterization by performing two perfect ensemble experiments with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth. In the first experiment, the standard albedo formulation of EC-Earth is used, in the second experiment sea ice albedo is reduced. The potential prognostic predictability is analyzed for a set of oceanic and atmospheric parameters. The decadal predictability of the atmospheric circulation is small. The highest potential predictability was found in air temperature at 2 m height over the northern North Atlantic and the southern South Atlantic. Over land, only a few areas are significantly predictable. The predictability for continental size averages of air temperature is relatively good in all northern hemisphere regions. Sea ice thickness is highly predictable along the ice edges in the North Atlantic Arctic Sector. The meridional overturning circulation is highly predictable in both experiments and governs most of the decadal climate predictability in the northern hemisphere. The experiments using reduced sea ice albedo show some important differences like a generally higher predictability of atmospheric variables in the Arctic or higher predictability of air temperature in Europe. Furthermore, decadal variations are substantially smaller in the simulations with reduced ice albedo, which can be explained by reduced sea ice thickness in these simulations. (orig.)

  1. An updated prediction model of the global risk of cardiovascular disease in HIV-positive persons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis-Møller, Nina; Ryom, Lene; Smith, Colette

    2016-01-01

    ,663 HIV-positive persons from 20 countries in Europe and Australia, who were free of CVD at entry into the Data-collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study. Cox regression models (full and reduced) were developed that predict the risk of a global CVD endpoint. The predictive performance...... significantly predicted risk more accurately than the recalibrated Framingham model (Harrell's c-statistic of 0.791, 0.783 and 0.766 for the D:A:D full, D:A:D reduced, and Framingham models respectively; p models also more accurately predicted five-year CVD-risk for key prognostic subgroups...... to quantify risk and to guide preventive care....

  2. Predicting Earth orientation changes from global forecasts of atmosphere-hydrosphere dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobslaw, Henryk; Dill, Robert

    2018-02-01

    Effective Angular Momentum (EAM) functions obtained from global numerical simulations of atmosphere, ocean, and land surface dynamics are routinely processed by the Earth System Modelling group at Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum. EAM functions are available since January 1976 with up to 3 h temporal resolution. Additionally, 6 days-long EAM forecasts are routinely published every day. Based on hindcast experiments with 305 individual predictions distributed over 15 months, we demonstrate that EAM forecasts improve the prediction accuracy of the Earth Orientation Parameters at all forecast horizons between 1 and 6 days. At day 6, prediction accuracy improves down to 1.76 mas for the terrestrial pole offset, and 2.6 mas for Δ UT1, which correspond to an accuracy increase of about 41% over predictions published in Bulletin A by the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service.

  3. Equity and adequacy of international donor assistance for global malaria control: an analysis of populations at risk and external funding commitments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snow, Robert W; Okiro, Emelda A; Gething, Peter W; Atun, Rifat; Hay, Simon I

    2010-10-23

    Financing for malaria control has increased as part of international commitments to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). We aimed to identify the unmet financial needs that would be biologically and economically equitable and would increase the chances of reaching worldwide malaria-control ambitions. Populations at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum or Plasmodium vivax transmission were calculated for 2007 and 2009 for 93 malaria-endemic countries to measure biological need. National per-person gross domestic product (GDP) was used to define economic need. An analysis of external donor assistance for malaria control was done for the period 2002-09 to compute overall and annualised per-person at-risk-funding commitments. Annualised malaria donor assistance was compared with independent predictions of funding needed to reach international targets of 80% coverage of best practices in case-management and effective disease prevention. Countries were ranked in relation to biological, economic, and unmet needs to examine equity and adequacy of support by 2010. International financing for malaria control has increased by 166% (from $0·73 billion to $1·94 billion) since 2007 and is broadly consistent with biological needs. African countries have become major recipients of external assistance; however, countries where P vivax continues to pose threats to control ambitions are not as well funded. 21 countries have reached adequate assistance to provide a comprehensive suite of interventions by 2009, including 12 countries in Africa. However, this assistance was inadequate for 50 countries representing 61% of the worldwide population at risk of malaria-including ten countries in Africa and five in Asia that coincidentally are some of the poorest countries. Approval of donor funding for malaria control does not correlate with GDP. Funding for malaria control worldwide is 60% lower than the US$4·9 billion needed for comprehensive control in 2010; this includes

  4. Multi-model global assessment of subseasonal prediction skill of atmospheric rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deflorio, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are global phenomena that are characterized by long, narrow plumes of water vapor transport. They are most often observed in the midlatitudes near climatologically active storm track regions. Because of their frequent association with floods, landslides, and other hydrological impacts on society, there is significant incentive at the intersection of academic research, water management, and policymaking to understand the skill with which state-of-the-art operational weather models can predict ARs weeks-to-months in advance. We use the newly assembled Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) database, which includes extensive hindcast records of eleven operational weather models, to assess global prediction skill of atmospheric rivers on S2S timescales. We develop a metric to assess AR skill that is suitable for S2S timescales by counting the total number of AR days which occur over each model and observational grid cell during a 2-week time window. This "2-week AR occurrence" metric is suitable for S2S prediction skill assessment because it does not consider discrete hourly or daily AR objects, but rather a smoothed representation of AR occurrence over a longer period of time. Our results indicate that several of the S2S models, especially the ECMWF model, show useful prediction skill in the 2-week forecast window, with significant interannual variation in some regions. We also present results from an experimental forecast of S2S AR prediction skill using the ECMWF and NCEP models.

  5. Generic global regression models for growth prediction of Salmonella in ground pork and pork cuts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buschhardt, Tasja; Hansen, Tina Beck; Bahl, Martin Iain

    2017-01-01

    Introduction and Objectives Models for the prediction of bacterial growth in fresh pork are primarily developed using two-step regression (i.e. primary models followed by secondary models). These models are also generally based on experiments in liquids or ground meat and neglect surface growth....... It has been shown that one-step global regressions can result in more accurate models and that bacterial growth on intact surfaces can substantially differ from growth in liquid culture. Material and Methods We used a global-regression approach to develop predictive models for the growth of Salmonella....... One part of obtained logtransformed cell counts was used for model development and another for model validation. The Ratkowsky square root model and the relative lag time (RLT) model were integrated into the logistic model with delay. Fitted parameter estimates were compared to investigate the effect...

  6. Does Individual Stigma Predict Mental Health Funding Attitudes? Toward an Understanding of Resource Allocation and Social Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLuca, Joseph S; Clement, Timothy W; Yanos, Philip T

    2017-01-01

    The uneven progression of mental health funding in the United States, and the way that the funding climate seems to be influenced by local and regional differences, raises the issue of what factors, including stigma, may impact mental health funding decisions. Criticisms that mental health stigma research is too individually-focused have led researchers to consider how broader, macro-level forms of stigma - such as structural stigma - intersect with micro-level forms of individual stigma. While some studies suggest that macro and micro stigma levels are distinct processes, other studies suggest a more synergistic relationship between structural and individual stigma. Participants in the current study (N = 951; national, convenience sample of the U.S.) completed a hypothetical mental health resource allocation task (a measure of structural discrimination). We then compared participants' allocation of resources to mental health to participants' endorsement of negative stereotypes, beliefs about recovery and treatment, negative attributions, intended social distancing, microaggressions, and help-seeking (measures of individual stigma). Negative stereotyping, help-seeking self-stigma, and intended social distancing behaviors were weakly but significantly negatively correlated with allocating funds to mental health programs. More specifically, attributions of blame and anger were positively correlated to funding for vocational rehabilitation; attributions of dangerousness and fear were negatively correlated to funding for supported housing and court supervision and outpatient commitment; and attributions of anger were negatively correlated to funding for inpatient commitment and hospitalization. Individual stigma and sociodemographic factors appear to only partially explain structural stigma decisions. Future research should assess broader social and contextual factors, in addition to other beliefs and worldviews (e.g., allocation preference questionnaire, economic

  7. Accelerating the Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (GNAQPMS) model on Intel Xeon Phi processors

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Hui; Chen, Huansheng; Wu, Qizhong; Lin, Junming; Chen, Xueshun; Xie, Xinwei; Wang, Rongrong; Tang, Xiao; Wang, Zifa

    2017-01-01

    The GNAQPMS model is the global version of the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modelling System (NAQPMS), which is a multi-scale chemical transport model used for air quality forecast and atmospheric environmental research. In this study, we present our work of porting and optimizing the GNAQPMS model on the second generation Intel Xeon Phi processor codename “Knights Landing” (KNL). Compared with the first generation Xeon Phi coprocessor, KNL introduced many new hardware features such as a boo...

  8. Human Rights and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria: How Does a Large Funder of Basic Health Services Meet the Challenge of Rights-Based Programs?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jürgens, Ralf; Csete, Joanne; Lim, Hyeyoung; Timberlake, Susan; Smith, Matthew

    2017-12-01

    The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria was created to greatly expand access to basic services to address the three diseases in its name. From its beginnings, its governance embodied some human rights principles: civil society is represented on its board, and the country coordination mechanisms that oversee funding requests to the Global Fund include representatives of people affected by the diseases. The Global Fund's core strategies recognize that the health services it supports would not be effective or cost-effective without efforts to reduce human rights-related barriers to access and utilization of health services, particularly those faced by socially marginalized and criminalized persons. Basic human rights elements were written into Global Fund grant agreements, and various technical support measures encouraged the inclusion in funding requests of programs to reduce human rights-related barriers. A five-year initiative to provide intensive technical and financial support for the scaling up of programs to reduce these barriers in 20 countries is ongoing.

  9. A Comparison of the Performances of Type A Mutual Funds Before And After 2008 Global Economic Crisis in Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Esref Savas BASCI; Fatih MEMIS

    2014-01-01

    Looking from a historical perspective, financial activities contain many crises in itself. This situation seems to be a feature inherent in the existing economic system and as long as this system continues, it becomes inevitable being faced with the crisis. Especially in recent years, with the increasing globalization, the risk of being faced with a crisis has also increased. In the financial markets, savers who wish to evaluate the accumulation by investing in different investment tools may ...

  10. A Comparion of the Performances of Type A Mutual Funds Before and After 2008 Global Economic Crisis in Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Başçi, Eşref Savaş; Memiş, Fatih

    2014-01-01

    Looking from a historical perspective, financial activities contain many crises in itself. This situation seems to be a feature inherent in the existing economic system and as long as this system continues, it becomes inevitable being faced with the crisis. Especially in recent years, with the increasing globalization, the risk of being faced with a crisis has also increased. In the financial markets, savers who wish to evaluate the accumulation by investing in different investment tools may ...

  11. IPMP Global Fit - A one-step direct data analysis tool for predictive microbiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Lihan

    2017-12-04

    The objective of this work is to develop and validate a unified optimization algorithm for performing one-step global regression analysis of isothermal growth and survival curves for determination of kinetic parameters in predictive microbiology. The algorithm is incorporated with user-friendly graphical interfaces (GUIs) to develop a data analysis tool, the USDA IPMP-Global Fit. The GUIs are designed to guide the users to easily navigate through the data analysis process and properly select the initial parameters for different combinations of mathematical models. The software is developed for one-step kinetic analysis to directly construct tertiary models by minimizing the global error between the experimental observations and mathematical models. The current version of the software is specifically designed for constructing tertiary models with time and temperature as the independent model parameters in the package. The software is tested with a total of 9 different combinations of primary and secondary models for growth and survival of various microorganisms. The results of data analysis show that this software provides accurate estimates of kinetic parameters. In addition, it can be used to improve the experimental design and data collection for more accurate estimation of kinetic parameters. IPMP-Global Fit can be used in combination with the regular USDA-IPMP for solving the inverse problems and developing tertiary models in predictive microbiology. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  12. Stock return predictability and market integration: The role of global and local information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David G. McMillan

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the predictability of a range of international stock markets where we allow the presence of both local and global predictive factors. Recent research has argued that US returns have predictive power for international stock returns. We expand this line of research, following work on market integration, to include a more general definition of the global factor, based on principal components analysis. Results identify three global expected returns factors, one related to the major stock markets of the US, UK and Asia and one related to the other markets analysed. The third component is related to dividend growth. A single dominant realised returns factor is also noted. A forecasting exercise comparing the principal components based factors to a US return factor and local market only factors, as well as the historical mean benchmark finds supportive evidence for the former approach. It is hoped that the results from this paper will be informative on three counts. First, to academics interested in understanding the dynamics asset price movement. Second, to market participants who aim to time the market and engage in portfolio and risk management. Third, to those (policy makers and others who are interested in linkages across international markets and the nature and degree of integration.

  13. Artificial neural network optimisation for monthly average daily global solar radiation prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alsina, Emanuel Federico; Bortolini, Marco; Gamberi, Mauro; Regattieri, Alberto

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Prediction of the monthly average daily global solar radiation over Italy. • Multi-location Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model: 45 locations considered. • Optimal ANN configuration with 7 input climatologic/geographical parameters. • Statistical indicators: MAPE, NRMSE, MPBE. - Abstract: The availability of reliable climatologic data is essential for multiple purposes in a wide set of anthropic activities and operative sectors. Frequently direct measures present spatial and temporal lacks so that predictive approaches become of interest. This paper focuses on the prediction of the Monthly Average Daily Global Solar Radiation (MADGSR) over Italy using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Data from 45 locations compose the multi-location ANN training and testing sets. For each location, 13 input parameters are considered, including the geographical coordinates and the monthly values for the most frequently adopted climatologic parameters. A subset of 17 locations is used for ANN training, while the testing step is against data from the remaining 28 locations. Furthermore, the Automatic Relevance Determination method (ARD) is used to point out the most relevant input for the accurate MADGSR prediction. The ANN best configuration includes 7 parameters, only, i.e. Top of Atmosphere (TOA) radiation, day length, number of rainy days and average rainfall, latitude and altitude. The correlation performances, expressed through statistical indicators as the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), range between 1.67% and 4.25%, depending on the number and type of the chosen input, representing a good solution compared to the current standards.

  14. Integrating Unified Gravity Wave Physics into the NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpert, J. C.; Yudin, V.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Akmaev, R. A.

    2017-12-01

    The Unified Gravity Wave Physics (UGWP) project for the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) is a NOAA collaborative effort between the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Environemntal Modeling Center (EMC) and the University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CU-CIRES) to support upgrades and improvements of GW dynamics (resolved scales) and physics (sub-grid scales) in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)†. As envisioned the global climate, weather and space weather models of NEMS will substantially improve their predictions and forecasts with the resolution-sensitive (scale-aware) formulations planned under the UGWP framework for both orographic and non-stationary waves. In particular, the planned improvements for the Global Forecast System (GFS) model of NEMS are: calibration of model physics for higher vertical and horizontal resolution and an extended vertical range of simulations, upgrades to GW schemes, including the turbulent heating and eddy mixing due to wave dissipation and breaking, and representation of the internally-generated QBO. The main priority of the UGWP project is unified parameterization of orographic and non-orographic GW effects including momentum deposition in the middle atmosphere and turbulent heating and eddies due to wave dissipation and breaking. The latter effects are not currently represented in NOAA atmosphere models. The team has tested and evaluated four candidate GW solvers integrating the selected GW schemes into the NGGPS model. Our current work and planned activity is to implement the UGWP schemes in the first available GFS/FV3 (open FV3) configuration including adapted GFDL modification for sub-grid orography in GFS. Initial global model results will be shown for the operational and research GFS configuration for spectral and FV3 dynamical cores. †http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php?branch=NEMS

  15. Economic support to patients in HIV and TB grants in rounds 7 and 10 from the global fund to fight AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda M Richter

    Full Text Available People with TB and/or HIV frequently experience severe economic barriers to health care, including out-of-pocket expenses related to diagnosis and treatment, as well as indirect costs due to loss of income. These barriers can both aggravate economic hardship and prevent or delay diagnosis, treatment and successful outcome, leading to increased transmission, morbidity and mortality. WHO, UNAIDS and the ILO argue that economic support of various kinds is essential to enable vulnerable people to protect themselves from infection, avoid delayed diagnosis and treatment, overcome barriers to adherence, and avert destitution. This paper analyses successful country proposals to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria that include economic support in Rounds 7 and 10; 36 and 20 HIV and TB grants in Round 7 and 32 and 26, respectively, in Round 10. Of these, up to 84 percent included direct or indirect economic support for beneficiaries, although the amount constituted a very small proportion of the total grant. In TB grants, the objectives of economic support were generally clearly stated, and focused on mechanisms to improve treatment uptake and adherence, and the case was most clearly made for MDR-TB patients. In HIV grants, the objectives were much broader in scope, including mitigation of adverse economic and social effects of HIV and its treatment on both patients and families. The analysis shows that economic support is on the radar for countries developing Global Fund proposals, and a wide range of economic support activities are in place. In order to move forward in this area, the wealth of country experience that exists needs to be collated, assessed and disseminated. In addition to trials, operational research and programme evaluations, more precise guidance to countries is needed to inform evidence-based decision about activities that are cost-effective, affordable and feasible.

  16. Rethinking Indian monsoon rainfall prediction in the context of recent global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bin; Xiang, Baoqiang; Li, Juan; Webster, Peter J.; Rajeevan, Madhavan N.; Liu, Jian; Ha, Kyung-Ja

    2015-01-01

    Prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is at the heart of tropical climate prediction. Despite enormous progress having been made in predicting ISMR since 1886, the operational forecasts during recent decades (1989–2012) have little skill. Here we show, with both dynamical and physical–empirical models, that this recent failure is largely due to the models' inability to capture new predictability sources emerging during recent global warming, that is, the development of the central-Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation (CP–ENSO), the rapid deepening of the Asian Low and the strengthening of North and South Pacific Highs during boreal spring. A physical–empirical model that captures these new predictors can produce an independent forecast skill of 0.51 for 1989–2012 and a 92-year retrospective forecast skill of 0.64 for 1921–2012. The recent low skills of the dynamical models are attributed to deficiencies in capturing the developing CP–ENSO and anomalous Asian Low. The results reveal a considerable gap between ISMR prediction skill and predictability. PMID:25981180

  17. Prediction of energy demands using neural network with model identification by global optimization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yokoyama, Ryohei; Wakui, Tetsuya; Satake, Ryoichi [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Osaka Prefecture University, 1-1 Gakuen-cho, Naka-ku, Sakai, Osaka 599-8531 (Japan)

    2009-02-15

    To operate energy supply plants properly from the viewpoints of stable energy supply, and energy and cost savings, it is important to predict energy demands accurately as basic conditions. Several methods of predicting energy demands have been proposed, and one of them is to use neural networks. Although local optimization methods such as gradient ones have conventionally been adopted in the back propagation procedure to identify the values of model parameters, they have the significant drawback that they can derive only local optimal solutions. In this paper, a global optimization method called ''Modal Trimming Method'' proposed for non-linear programming problems is adopted to identify the values of model parameters. In addition, the trend and periodic change are first removed from time series data on energy demand, and the converted data is used as the main input to a neural network. Furthermore, predicted values of air temperature and relative humidity are considered as additional inputs to the neural network, and their effect on the prediction of energy demand is investigated. This approach is applied to the prediction of the cooling demand in a building used for a bench mark test of a variety of prediction methods, and its validity and effectiveness are clarified. (author)

  18. Prediction of Monthly Summer Monsoon Rainfall Using Global Climate Models Through Artificial Neural Network Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Archana; Singh, Gurjeet; Mohanty, U. C.

    2018-01-01

    The monthly prediction of summer monsoon rainfall is very challenging because of its complex and chaotic nature. In this study, a non-linear technique known as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been employed on the outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs) to bring out the vagaries inherent in monthly rainfall prediction. The GCMs that are considered in the study are from the International Research Institute (IRI) (2-tier CCM3v6) and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (Coupled-CFSv2). The ANN technique is applied on different ensemble members of the individual GCMs to obtain monthly scale prediction over India as a whole and over its spatial grid points. In the present study, a double-cross-validation and simple randomization technique was used to avoid the over-fitting during training process of the ANN model. The performance of the ANN-predicted rainfall from GCMs is judged by analysing the absolute error, box plots, percentile and difference in linear error in probability space. Results suggest that there is significant improvement in prediction skill of these GCMs after applying the ANN technique. The performance analysis reveals that the ANN model is able to capture the year to year variations in monsoon months with fairly good accuracy in extreme years as well. ANN model is also able to simulate the correct signs of rainfall anomalies over different spatial points of the Indian domain.

  19. Splice site prediction in Arabidopsis thaliana pre-mRNA by combining local and global sequence information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hebsgaard, Stefan M.; Korning, Peter G.; Tolstrup, Niels

    1996-01-01

    Artificial neural networks have been combined with a rule based system to predict intron splice sites in the dicot plant Arabidopsis thaliana. A two step prediction scheme, where a global prediction of the coding potential regulates a cutoff level for a local predicition of splice sites, is refin...

  20. An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paeth, Heiko; Li, Jingmin; Pollinger, Felix; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Feldmann, Hendrik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen

    2018-04-01

    Initialized decadal climate predictions with coupled climate models are often marked by substantial climate drifts that emanate from a mismatch between the climatology of the coupled model system and the data set used for initialization. While such drifts may be easily removed from the prediction system when analyzing individual variables, a major problem prevails for multivariate issues and, especially, when the output of the global prediction system shall be used for dynamical downscaling. In this study, we present a statistical approach to remove climate drifts in a multivariate context and demonstrate the effect of this drift correction on regional climate model simulations over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The statistical approach is based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis adapted to a very large data matrix. The climate drift emerges as a dramatic cooling trend in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and is captured by the leading EOF of the multivariate output from the global prediction system, accounting for 7.7% of total variability. The SST cooling pattern also imposes drifts in various atmospheric variables and levels. The removal of the first EOF effectuates the drift correction while retaining other components of intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variability. In the regional climate model, the multivariate drift correction of the input data removes the cooling trends in most western European land regions and systematically reduces the discrepancy between the output of the regional climate model and observational data. In contrast, removing the drift only in the SST field from the global model has hardly any positive effect on the regional climate model.

  1. PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS OF SLOVAKIAN TIMBER TRADE ON GLOBAL MARKET CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miloš Gejdoš

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In Slovakian forestry the main source of finance is the wood sale. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate the assortments supply structure (quality management, prices development for the coniferous sawlogs and to set the future prediction of this development in new global market conditions, which are affected mainly by the global climate changes. Price changes were analysed for the period of the years from 2000 to March 2016 for the spruce and fir sawlogs. Data about the volume supply of raw-wood assortments in Slovakia for years 2005-2014 were collected from “Green Reports“ published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of the Slovak Republic. From the influence factors in the studied period, the biggest impact was assigned to the global economic crisis. The prediction captures the further decline of prices of raw-wood assortments. In the second half of the year 2016 the price of sawlogs decreased by € 4 per 1 m3. Local impacts, the structure of wood processors and specific trade area in Slovakia affected substantially the structure of assortments on Market. There is also some space for a better evaluation of harvested wood.

  2. Remotely Sensed High-Resolution Global Cloud Dynamics for Predicting Ecosystem and Biodiversity Distributions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam M Wilson

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Cloud cover can influence numerous important ecological processes, including reproduction, growth, survival, and behavior, yet our assessment of its importance at the appropriate spatial scales has remained remarkably limited. If captured over a large extent yet at sufficiently fine spatial grain, cloud cover dynamics may provide key information for delineating a variety of habitat types and predicting species distributions. Here, we develop new near-global, fine-grain (≈1 km monthly cloud frequencies from 15 y of twice-daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS satellite images that expose spatiotemporal cloud cover dynamics of previously undocumented global complexity. We demonstrate that cloud cover varies strongly in its geographic heterogeneity and that the direct, observation-based nature of cloud-derived metrics can improve predictions of habitats, ecosystem, and species distributions with reduced spatial autocorrelation compared to commonly used interpolated climate data. These findings support the fundamental role of remote sensing as an effective lens through which to understand and globally monitor the fine-grain spatial variability of key biodiversity and ecosystem properties.

  3. Global identification predicts gay-male identity integration and well-being among Turkish gay men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koc, Yasin; Vignoles, Vivian L

    2016-12-01

    In most parts of the world, hegemonic masculinity requires men to endorse traditional masculine ideals, one of which is rejection of homosexuality. Wherever hegemonic masculinity favours heterosexuality over homosexuality, gay males may feel under pressure to negotiate their conflicting male gender and gay sexual identities to maintain positive self-perceptions. However, globalization, as a source of intercultural interaction, might provide a beneficial context for people wishing to create alternative masculinities in the face of hegemonic masculinity. Hence, we tested if global identification would predict higher levels of gay-male identity integration, and indirectly subjective well-being, via alternative masculinity representations for gay and male identities. A community sample of 219 gay and bisexual men from Turkey completed the study. Structural equation modelling revealed that global identification positively predicted gay-male identity integration, and indirectly subjective well-being; however, alternative masculinity representations did not mediate this relationship. Our findings illustrate how identity categories in different domains can intersect and affect each other in complex ways. Moreover, we discuss mental health and well-being implications for gay men living in cultures where they experience high levels of prejudice and stigma. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  4. Global and Regional Real-time Systems for Flood and Drought Monitoring and Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Y.; Gourley, J. J.; Xue, X.; Flamig, Z.

    2015-12-01

    A Hydrometeorological Extreme Mapping and Prediction System (HyXtreme-MaP), initially built upon the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) distributed hydrological model, is driven by real-time quasi-global TRMM/GPM satellites and by the US Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar network with dual-polarimetric upgrade to simulate streamflow, actual ET, soil moisture and other hydrologic variables at 1/8th degree resolution quasi-globally (http://eos.ou.edu) and at 250-meter 2.5-mintue resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS: http://flash.ou.edu).­ Multifaceted and collaborative by-design, this end-to-end research framework aims to not only integrate data, models, and applications but also brings people together (i.e., NOAA, NASA, University researchers, and end-users). This presentation will review the progresses, challenges and opportunities of such HyXTREME-MaP System used to monitor global floods and droughts, and also to predict flash floods over the CONUS.

  5. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  6. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  7. Predicting groundwater recharge for varying land cover and climate conditions - a global meta-study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohan, Chinchu; Western, Andrew W.; Wei, Yongping; Saft, Margarita

    2018-05-01

    Groundwater recharge is one of the important factors determining the groundwater development potential of an area. Even though recharge plays a key role in controlling groundwater system dynamics, much uncertainty remains regarding the relationships between groundwater recharge and its governing factors at a large scale. Therefore, this study aims to identify the most influential factors of groundwater recharge, and to develop an empirical model to estimate diffuse rainfall recharge at a global scale. Recharge estimates reported in the literature from various parts of the world (715 sites) were compiled and used in model building and testing exercises. Unlike conventional recharge estimates from water balance, this study used a multimodel inference approach and information theory to explain the relationship between groundwater recharge and influential factors, and to predict groundwater recharge at 0.5° resolution. The results show that meteorological factors (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) and vegetation factors (land use and land cover) had the most predictive power for recharge. According to the model, long-term global average annual recharge (1981-2014) was 134 mm yr-1 with a prediction error ranging from -8 to 10 mm yr-1 for 97.2 % of cases. The recharge estimates presented in this study are unique and more reliable than the existing global groundwater recharge estimates because of the extensive validation carried out using both independent local estimates collated from the literature and national statistics from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). In a water-scarce future driven by increased anthropogenic development, the results from this study will aid in making informed decisions about groundwater potential at a large scale.

  8. Splay states in globally coupled Josephson arrays: Analytical prediction of Floquet multipliers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strogatz, S.H.; Mirollo, R.E.

    1993-01-01

    In recent numerical experiments on series arrays of overdamped Josephson junctions, Nichols and Wiesenfeld [Phys. Rev. A 45, 8430 (1992)] discovered that the periodic states known as splay states are neutrally stable in all but four directions in phase space. We present a theory that accounts for this enormous degree of neutral stability. The theory also predicts the four non-neutral Floquet multipliers to within 0.1% of their numerically computed values. The analytical approach used here may be appli- cable to other globally coupled systems of oscillators, such as multimode lasers, electronic oscillator circuits, and solid-state laser arrays

  9. Global concentration additivity and prediction of mixture toxicities, taking nitrobenzene derivatives as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tong; Liu, Shu-Shen; Qu, Rui; Liu, Hai-Ling

    2017-10-01

    The toxicity of a mixture depends not only on the mixture concentration level but also on the mixture ratio. For a multiple-component mixture (MCM) system with a definite chemical composition, the mixture toxicity can be predicted only if the global concentration additivity (GCA) is validated. The so-called GCA means that the toxicity of any mixture in the MCM system is the concentration additive, regardless of what its mixture ratio and concentration level. However, many mixture toxicity reports have usually employed one mixture ratio (such as the EC 50 ratio), the equivalent effect concentration ratio (EECR) design, to specify several mixtures. EECR mixtures cannot simulate the concentration diversity and mixture ratio diversity of mixtures in the real environment, and it is impossible to validate the GCA. Therefore, in this paper, the uniform design ray (UD-Ray) was used to select nine mixture ratios (rays) in the mixture system of five nitrobenzene derivatives (NBDs). The representative UD-Ray mixtures can effectively and rationally describe the diversity in the NBD mixture system. The toxicities of the mixtures to Vibrio qinghaiensis sp.-Q67 were determined by the microplate toxicity analysis (MTA). For each UD-Ray mixture, the concentration addition (CA) model was used to validate whether the mixture toxicity is additive. All of the UD-Ray mixtures of five NBDs are global concentration additive. Afterwards, the CA is employed to predict the toxicities of the external mixtures from three EECR mixture rays with the NOEC, EC 30 , and EC 70 ratios. The predictive toxicities are in good agreement with the experimental toxicities, which testifies to the predictability of the mixture toxicity of the NBDs. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  10. Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

    2013-10-01

    Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We found that moderate-to-marked yield loss over a substantial percentage (26-33%) of the harvested area of these crops is reliably predictable if climatic forecasts are near perfect. However, only rice and wheat production are reliably predictable at three months before the harvest using within-season hindcasts. The reliabilities of estimates varied substantially by crop--rice and wheat yields were the most predictable, followed by soybean and maize. The reasons for variation in the reliability of the estimates included the differences in crop sensitivity to the climate and the technology used by the crop-producing regions. Our findings reveal that the use of seasonal climatic forecasts to predict crop failures will be useful for monitoring global food production and will encourage the adaptation of food systems toclimatic extremes.

  11. GNAQPMS v1.1: accelerating the Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (GNAQPMS) on Intel Xeon Phi processors

    OpenAIRE

    H. Wang; H. Wang; H. Wang; H. Wang; H. Chen; H. Chen; Q. Wu; Q. Wu; J. Lin; X. Chen; X. Xie; R. Wang; R. Wang; X. Tang; Z. Wang

    2017-01-01

    The Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (GNAQPMS) is the global version of the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS), which is a multi-scale chemical transport model used for air quality forecast and atmospheric environmental research. In this study, we present the porting and optimisation of GNAQPMS on a second-generation Intel Xeon Phi processor, codenamed Knights Landing (KNL). Compared with the first-generation Xeon Phi coprocessor (code...

  12. A predicted protein interactome identifies conserved global networks and disease resistance subnetworks in maize.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matt eGeisler

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Interactomes are genome-wide roadmaps of protein-protein interactions. They have been produced for humans, yeast, the fruit fly, and Arabidopsis thaliana and have become invaluable tools for generating and testing hypotheses. A predicted interactome for Zea mays (PiZeaM is presented here as an aid to the research community for this valuable crop species. PiZeaM was built using a proven method of interologs (interacting orthologs that were identified using both one-to-one and many-to-many orthology between genomes of maize and reference species. Where both maize orthologs occurred for an experimentally determined interaction in the reference species, we predicted a likely interaction in maize. A total of 49,026 unique interactions for 6,004 maize proteins were predicted. These interactions are enriched for processes that are evolutionarily conserved, but include many otherwise poorly annotated proteins in maize. The predicted maize interactions were further analyzed by comparing annotation of interacting proteins, including different layers of ontology. A map of pairwise gene co-expression was also generated and compared to predicted interactions. Two global subnetworks were constructed for highly conserved interactions. These subnetworks showed clear clustering of proteins by function. Another subnetwork was created for disease response using a bait and prey strategy to capture interacting partners for proteins that respond to other organisms. Closer examination of this subnetwork revealed the connectivity between biotic and abiotic hormone stress pathways. We believe PiZeaM will provide a useful tool for the prediction of protein function and analysis of pathways for Z. mays researchers and is presented in this paper as a reference tool for the exploration of protein interactions in maize.

  13. A global earthquake discrimination scheme to optimize ground-motion prediction equation selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Daniel; Wald, David J.; Hearne, Michael

    2012-01-01

    We present a new automatic earthquake discrimination procedure to determine in near-real time the tectonic regime and seismotectonic domain of an earthquake, its most likely source type, and the corresponding ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) class to be used in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global ShakeMap system. This method makes use of the Flinn–Engdahl regionalization scheme, seismotectonic information (plate boundaries, global geology, seismicity catalogs, and regional and local studies), and the source parameters available from the USGS National Earthquake Information Center in the minutes following an earthquake to give the best estimation of the setting and mechanism of the event. Depending on the tectonic setting, additional criteria based on hypocentral depth, style of faulting, and regional seismicity may be applied. For subduction zones, these criteria include the use of focal mechanism information and detailed interface models to discriminate among outer-rise, upper-plate, interface, and intraslab seismicity. The scheme is validated against a large database of recent historical earthquakes. Though developed to assess GMPE selection in Global ShakeMap operations, we anticipate a variety of uses for this strategy, from real-time processing systems to any analysis involving tectonic classification of sources from seismic catalogs.

  14. Prediction of welding residual distortions of large structures using a local/global approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan, Y. G.; Bergheau, J. M.; Vincent, Y.; Boitour, F.; Leblond, J. B.

    2007-01-01

    Prediction of welding residual distortions is more difficult than that of the microstructure and residual stresses. On the one hand, a fine mesh (often 3D) has to be used in the heat affected zone for the sake of the sharp variations of thermal, metallurgical and mechanical fields in this region. On the other hand, the whole structure is required to be meshed for the calculation of residual distortions. But for large structures, a 3D mesh is inconceivable caused by the costs of the calculation. Numerous methods have been developed to reduce the size of models. A local/global approach has been proposed to determine the welding residual distortions of large structures. The plastic strains and the microstructure due to welding are supposed can be determined from a local 3D model which concerns only the weld and its vicinity. They are projected as initial strains into a global 3D model which consists of the whole structure and obviously much less fine in the welded zone than the local model. The residual distortions are then calculated using a simple elastic analysis, which makes this method particularly effective in an industrial context. The aim of this article is to present the principle of the local/global approach then show the capacity of this method in an industrial context and finally study the definition of the local model

  15. Global and local threats to coral reef functioning and existence: review and predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilkinson, C.R. [Australian Institute of Marine Sciences, Townsville, Qld. (Australia)

    1999-07-01

    Factors causing global degradation of coral reefs are examined briefly as a basis for predicting the likely consequences of increases in these factors. The earlier consensus was that widespread but localized damage from natural factors such as storms, and direct anthropogenic effects such as increased sedimentation, pollution and exploitation, posed the largest immediate threat to coral reefs. Now truly global factors associated with accelerating Global Climate Change are either damaging coral reefs or have the potential to inflict greater damage in the immediate future e.g. increases in coral bleaching and mortality, and reduction in coral calcification due to changes in sea-water chemistry with increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. Rises in sea level will probably disrupt human communities and their cultures by making coral cays uninhabitable, whereas coral reefs will sustain minimal damage from the rise in sea level. The short-term (decades) prognosis is that major reductions are almost certain in the extent and biodiversity of coral reefs, and severe disruptions to cultures and economies dependent on reef resources will occur. The long-term (centuries to millennia) prognosis is more encouraging because coral reefs have remarkable resilience to severe disruption and will probably show this resilience in the future when climate changes either stabilize or reverse.

  16. Global resistance and resilience of primary production following extreme drought are predicted by mean annual precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart-Haëntjens, E. J.; De Boeck, H. J.; Lemoine, N. P.; Gough, C. M.; Kröel-Dulay, G.; Mänd, P.; Jentsch, A.; Schmidt, I. K.; Bahn, M.; Lloret, F.; Kreyling, J.; Wohlgemuth, T.; Stampfli, A.; Anderegg, W.; Classen, A. T.; Smith, M. D.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme drought is increasing globally in frequency and intensity, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of key ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity of an ecosystem to withstand change in primary production following extreme climate, and resilience, the degree to which primary production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring global patterns of resistance and resilience to extreme drought. Past syntheses on resistance have focused climatic gradients or individual ecosystem types, without assessing interactions between the two. Theory and many empirical studies suggest that forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought, though some empirical studies reveal that these trends are not universal. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis of sixty-four grassland and forest sites, finding that primary production resistance to extreme drought is predicted by a common continuum of mean annual precipitation (MAP). However, grasslands and forests exhibit divergent production resilience relationships with MAP. We discuss the likely mechanisms underlying the mixed production resistance and resilience patterns of forests and grasslands, including different plant species turnover times and drought adaptive strategies. These findings demonstrate the primary production responses of forests and grasslands to extreme drought are mixed, with far-reaching implications for Earth System Models, ecosystem management, and future studies of extreme drought resistance and resilience.

  17. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  18. Representing leaf and root physiological traits in CLM improves global carbon and nitrogen cycling predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghimire, Bardan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.; Mu, Mingquan; Randerson, James T.

    2016-06-01

    In many ecosystems, nitrogen is the most limiting nutrient for plant growth and productivity. However, current Earth System Models (ESMs) do not mechanistically represent functional nitrogen allocation for photosynthesis or the linkage between nitrogen uptake and root traits. The current version of CLM (4.5) links nitrogen availability and plant productivity via (1) an instantaneous downregulation of potential photosynthesis rates based on soil mineral nitrogen availability, and (2) apportionment of soil nitrogen between plants and competing nitrogen consumers assumed to be proportional to their relative N demands. However, plants do not photosynthesize at potential rates and then downregulate; instead photosynthesis rates are governed by nitrogen that has been allocated to the physiological processes underpinning photosynthesis. Furthermore, the role of plant roots in nutrient acquisition has also been largely ignored in ESMs. We therefore present a new plant nitrogen model for CLM4.5 with (1) improved representations of linkages between leaf nitrogen and plant productivity based on observed relationships in a global plant trait database and (2) plant nitrogen uptake based on root-scale Michaelis-Menten uptake kinetics. Our model improvements led to a global bias reduction in GPP, LAI, and biomass of 70%, 11%, and 49%, respectively. Furthermore, water use efficiency predictions were improved conceptually, qualitatively, and in magnitude. The new model's GPP responses to nitrogen deposition, CO2 fertilization, and climate also differed from the baseline model. The mechanistic representation of leaf-level nitrogen allocation and a theoretically consistent treatment of competition with belowground consumers led to overall improvements in global carbon cycling predictions.

  19. Predicting the Responses of Soil Nitrite-Oxidizers to Multi-Factorial Global Change: A Trait-Based Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le Roux, Xavier; Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Niboyet, Audrey

    2016-01-01

    Soil microbial diversity is huge and a few grams of soil contain more bacterial taxa than there are bird species on Earth. This high diversity often makes predicting the responses of soil bacteria to environmental change intractable and restricts our capacity to predict the responses of soil...... functions to global change. Here, using a long-term field experiment in a California grassland, we studied the main and interactive effects of three global change factors (increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen addition, and all their factorial combinations, based on global...

  20. Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K. M.; Kim, K. M.; Li, J. Y.

    2001-01-01

    In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

  1. Grand challenges in developing a predictive understanding of global fire dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randerson, J. T.; Chen, Y.; Wiggins, E. B.; Andela, N.; Morton, D. C.; Veraverbeke, S.; van der Werf, G.

    2017-12-01

    High quality satellite observations of burned area and fire thermal anomalies over the past two decades have transformed our understanding of climate, ecosystem, and human controls on the spatial and temporal distribution of landscape fires. The satellite observations provide evidence for a rapid and widespread loss of fire from grassland and savanna ecosystems worldwide. Continued expansion of industrial agriculture suggests that observed declines in global burned area are likely to continue in future decades, with profound consequences for ecosystem function and the habitat of many endangered species. Satellite time series also highlight the importance of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and other climate modes as drivers of interannual variability. In many regions, lead times between climate indices and fire activity are considerable, enabling the development of early warning prediction systems for fire season severity. With the recent availability of high-resolution observations from Suomi NPP, Landsat 8, and Sentinel 2, the field of global fire ecology is poised to make even more significant breakthroughs over the next decade. With these new observations, it may be possible to reduce uncertainties in the spatial pattern of burned area by several fold. It is difficult to overstate the importance of these new data constraints for improving our understanding of fire impacts on human health and radiative forcing of climate change. A key research challenge in this context is to understand how the loss of global burned area will affect magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink and trends in atmospheric composition. Advances in prognostic fire modeling will require new approaches linking agriculture with landscape fire dynamics. A critical need in this context is the development of predictive models of road networks and other drivers of land fragmentation, and a closer integration of fragmentation information with algorithms predicting fire spread. Concurrently, a better

  2. Prediction of Global Damage and Reliability Based Upon Sequential Identification and Updating of RC Structures Subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Köylüoglu, H. U.

    The paper deals with the prediction of global damage and future structural reliability with special emphasis on sensitivity, bias and uncertainty of these predictions dependent on the statistically equivalent realizations of the future earthquake. The predictions are based on a modified Clough......-Johnston single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillator with three parameters which are calibrated to fit the displacement response and the damage development in the past earthquake....

  3. Using Intel's Knight Landing Processor to Accelerate Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (GNAQPMS) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H.; Chen, H.; Chen, X.; Wu, Q.; Wang, Z.

    2016-12-01

    The Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System for Hg (GNAQPMS-Hg) is a global chemical transport model coupled Hg transport module to investigate the mercury pollution. In this study, we present our work of transplanting the GNAQPMS model on Intel Xeon Phi processor, Knights Landing (KNL) to accelerate the model. KNL is the second-generation product adopting Many Integrated Core Architecture (MIC) architecture. Compared with the first generation Knight Corner (KNC), KNL has more new hardware features, that it can be used as unique processor as well as coprocessor with other CPU. According to the Vtune tool, the high overhead modules in GNAQPMS model have been addressed, including CBMZ gas chemistry, advection and convection module, and wet deposition module. These high overhead modules were accelerated by optimizing code and using new techniques of KNL. The following optimized measures was done: 1) Changing the pure MPI parallel mode to hybrid parallel mode with MPI and OpenMP; 2.Vectorizing the code to using the 512-bit wide vector computation unit. 3. Reducing unnecessary memory access and calculation. 4. Reducing Thread Local Storage (TLS) for common variables with each OpenMP thread in CBMZ. 5. Changing the way of global communication from files writing and reading to MPI functions. After optimization, the performance of GNAQPMS is greatly increased both on CPU and KNL platform, the single-node test showed that optimized version has 2.6x speedup on two sockets CPU platform and 3.3x speedup on one socket KNL platform compared with the baseline version code, which means the KNL has 1.29x speedup when compared with 2 sockets CPU platform.

  4. Sub-seasonal predictability of water scarcity at global and local scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.; Wood, E. F.

    2016-12-01

    Forecasting the water demand and availability for agriculture and energy production has been neglected in previous research, partly due to the fact that most large-scale hydrological models lack the skill to forecast human water demands at sub-seasonal time scale. We study the potential of a sub-seasonal water scarcity forecasting system for improved water management decision making and improved estimates of water demand and availability. We have generated 32 years of global sub-seasonal multi-model water availability, demand and scarcity forecasts. The quality of the forecasts is compared to a reference forecast derived from resampling historic weather observations. The newly developed system has been evaluated for both the global scale and in a real-time local application in the Sacramento valley for the Trinity, Shasta and Oroville reservoirs, where the water demand for agriculture and hydropower is high. On the global scale we find that the reference forecast shows high initial forecast skill (up to 8 months) for water scarcity in the eastern US, Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Adding dynamical sub-seasonal forecasts results in a clear improvement for most regions in the world, increasing the forecasts' lead time by 2 or more months on average. The strongest improvements are found in the US, Brazil, Central Asia and Australia. For the Sacramento valley we can accurately predict anomalies in the reservoir inflow, hydropower potential and the downstream irrigation water demand 6 months in advance. This allow us to forecast potential water scarcity in the Sacramento valley and adjust the reservoir management to prevent deficits in energy or irrigation water availability. The newly developed forecast system shows that it is possible to reduce the vulnerability to upcoming water scarcity events and allows optimization of the distribution of the available water between the agricultural and energy sector half a year in advance.

  5. A GLOBAL ASSESSMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY RESOURCES: NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, T.; Stackhouse, P. W., Jr.; Chandler, W.; Hoell, J. M.; Westberg, D.; Whitlock, C. H.

    2010-12-01

    NASA's POWER project, or the Prediction of the Worldwide Energy Resources project, synthesizes and analyzes data on a global scale. The products of the project find valuable applications in the solar and wind energy sectors of the renewable energy industries. The primary source data for the POWER project are NASA's World Climate Research Project (WCRP)/Global Energy and Water cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project (Release 3.0) and the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) assimilation model (V 4.0.3). Users of the POWER products access the data through NASA's Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE, Version 6.0) website (http://power.larc.nasa.gov). Over 200 parameters are available to the users. The spatial resolution is 1 degree by 1 degree now and will be finer later. The data covers from July 1983 to December 2007, a time-span of 24.5 years, and are provided as 3-hourly, daily and monthly means. As of now, there have been over 18 million web hits and over 4 million data file downloads. The POWER products have been systematically validated against ground-based measurements, and in particular, data from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) archive, and also against the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB). Parameters such as minimum, maximum, daily mean temperature and dew points, relative humidity and surface pressure are validated against the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) data. SSE feeds data directly into Decision Support Systems including RETScreen International clean energy project analysis software that is written in 36 languages and has greater than 260,000 users worldwide.

  6. Clinical symptoms predict concurrent social and global functioning in an early psychosis sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacciotti-Saija, Cristina; Langdon, Robyn; Ward, Philip B; Hickie, Ian B; Guastella, Adam J

    2018-04-01

    Although well established in chronic schizophrenia, the key determinants of functioning remain unknown during the early phase of a psychotic disorder. The aim of this study was to comprehensively examine the social cognitive, basic neurocognitive and clinical predictors of concurrent social functioning and global functioning in an early psychosis sample. This study examined the relationship between social cognition, basic neurocognition and clinical symptoms with concurrent functioning in 51 early psychosis individuals. Assessments included a range of self-report, observational and clinician-rated measures of cognitive, symptom severity and functioning domains. Results revealed a significant association between self-reported social function and lower levels of both social interaction anxiety and negative psychotic symptoms. A significant association was also observed between lower levels of negative psychotic symptoms and observed social functioning. Lastly, results demonstrated a significant association between reduced negative psychotic symptoms and clinician-rated global functioning. Clinical domains such as negative symptoms and social interaction anxiety significantly contribute to an optimal model predicting outcome during the early phase of a psychotic disorder. These clinical features may also provide useful markers of an individual's capacity for social participation. Clinical implications include the need for early targeted intervention to address social anxiety and negative psychotic symptoms to facilitate optimum patient outcome. © 2015 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  7. Are species' responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavergne, Sébastien; Evans, Margaret E. K.; Burfield, Ian J.; Jiguet, Frederic; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2013-01-01

    Predicting how and when adaptive evolution might rescue species from global change, and integrating this process into tools of biodiversity forecasting, has now become an urgent task. Here, we explored whether recent population trends of species can be explained by their past rate of niche evolution, which can be inferred from increasingly available phylogenetic and niche data. We examined the assemblage of 409 European bird species for which estimates of demographic trends between 1970 and 2000 are available, along with a species-level phylogeny and data on climatic, habitat and trophic niches. We found that species' proneness to demographic decline is associated with slow evolution of the habitat niche in the past, in addition to certain current-day life-history and ecological traits. A similar result was found at a higher taxonomic level, where families prone to decline have had a history of slower evolution of climatic and habitat niches. Our results support the view that niche conservatism can prevent some species from coping with environmental change. Thus, linking patterns of past niche evolution and contemporary species dynamics for large species samples may provide insights into how niche evolution may rescue certain lineages in the face of global change. PMID:23209172

  8. Predictions and observations of global beta-induced Alfven-acoustic modes in JET and NSTX

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gorelenkov, N N [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08543 (United States); Berk, H L [Institute for Fusion Studies, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712 (United States); Crocker, N A [Institute of Plasma and Fusion Research, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1354 (United States); Fredrickson, E D [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08543 (United States); Kaye, S [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08543 (United States); Kubota, S [Institute of Plasma and Fusion Research, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1354 (United States); Park, H [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08543 (United States); Peebles, W [Institute of Plasma and Fusion Research, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1354 (United States); Sabbagh, S A [Department of Applied Physics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027-6902 (United States); Sharapov, S E [Euroatom/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxfordshire OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Stutmat, D [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Tritz, K [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Levinton, F M [Nova Photonics, One Oak Place, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States); Yuh, H [Nova Photonics, One Oak Place, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States)

    2007-12-15

    In this paper we report on observations and interpretations of a new class of global MHD eigenmode solutions arising in gaps in the low frequency Alfven-acoustic continuum below the geodesic acoustic mode frequency. These modes have been just reported (Gorelenkov et al 2007 Phys. Lett. 370 70-7) where preliminary comparisons indicate qualitative agreement between theory and experiment. Here we show a more quantitative comparison emphasizing recent NSTX experiments on the observations of the global eigenmodes, referred to as beta-induced Alfven-acoustic eigenmodes (BAAEs), which exist near the extrema of the Alfven-acoustic continuum. In accordance to the linear dispersion relations, the frequency of these modes may shift as the safety factor, q, profile relaxes. We show that BAAEs can be responsible for observations in JET plasmas at relatively low beta <2% as well as in NSTX plasmas at relatively high beta >20%. In NSTX plasma observed magnetic activity has the same properties as predicted by theory for the mode structure and the frequency. Found numerically in NOVA simulations BAAEs are used to explain the observed properties of relatively low frequency experimental signals seen in NSTX and JET tokamaks.

  9. [Predicting the impact of global warming on the geographical distribution pattern of Quercus variabilis in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yao; Zhang, Xing-wang; Fang, Yan-ming

    2014-12-01

    The geographical distribution of Quercus variabilis in China with its climate characteristics was analyzed based on DIVA-GIS which was also used to estimate the response of future potential distribution to global warming by Bioclim and Domain models. Analysis results showed the geographical distribution of Q. variabilis could be divided into 7 subregions: Henduan Mountains, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, North China, East China, Liaodong-Shandong Peninsula, Taiwan Island, and Qinling-Daba Mountains. These subregions are across 7 temperature zones, 2 moisture regions and 17 climatic subregions, including 8 climate types. The modern abundance center of Q. variabilis is Qinling, Daba and Funiu mountains. The condition of mean annual temperature 7.5-19.8 degrees C annual precipitation 471-1511 mm, is suitable for Q. variabilis. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC values), of Domain and Boiclim models were 0.910, 0.779; the former predicted that the potential regions of high suitability for Q. variabilis are Qinling, Daba, Funiu, Tongbai, and Dabie mountains, eastern and western Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, hills of southern Jiangsu and Anhui, part of the mountains in North China. Global warming might lead to the shrinking in suitable region and retreating from the south for Q. variabilis.

  10. Attribution of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak-Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

    2018-02-01

    Flood-related fatalities and impacts on society surpass those from all other natural disasters globally. While the inclusion of large-scale climate drivers in streamflow (or high-flow) prediction has been widely studied, an explicit link to global-scale long-lead prediction is lacking, which can lead to an improved understanding of potential flood propensity. Here we attribute seasonal peak-flow to large-scale climate patterns, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), using streamflow station observations and simulations from PCR-GLOBWB, a global-scale hydrologic model. Statistically significantly correlated climate patterns and streamflow autocorrelation are subsequently applied as predictors to build a global-scale season-ahead prediction model, with prediction performance evaluated by the mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and the categorical Gerrity skill score (GSS). Globally, fair-to-good prediction skill (20% ≤ MSESS and 0.2 ≤ GSS) is evident for a number of locations (28% of stations and 29% of land area), most notably in data-poor regions (e.g., West and Central Africa). The persistence of such relevant climate patterns can improve understanding of the propensity for floods at the seasonal scale. The prediction approach developed here lays the groundwork for further improving local-scale seasonal peak-flow prediction by identifying relevant global-scale climate patterns. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and or little capacity to develop flood early warning systems.

  11. A New Global Regression Analysis Method for the Prediction of Wind Tunnel Model Weight Corrections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulbrich, Norbert Manfred; Bridge, Thomas M.; Amaya, Max A.

    2014-01-01

    A new global regression analysis method is discussed that predicts wind tunnel model weight corrections for strain-gage balance loads during a wind tunnel test. The method determines corrections by combining "wind-on" model attitude measurements with least squares estimates of the model weight and center of gravity coordinates that are obtained from "wind-off" data points. The method treats the least squares fit of the model weight separate from the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Therefore, it performs two fits of "wind- off" data points and uses the least squares estimator of the model weight as an input for the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Explicit equations for the least squares estimators of the weight and center of gravity coordinates are derived that simplify the implementation of the method in the data system software of a wind tunnel. In addition, recommendations for sets of "wind-off" data points are made that take typical model support system constraints into account. Explicit equations of the confidence intervals on the model weight and center of gravity coordinates and two different error analyses of the model weight prediction are also discussed in the appendices of the paper.

  12. Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall over Northern Tropical Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Peter; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas H.; Schlueter, Andreas; Gneiting, Tilmann

    2018-04-01

    Accumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, we analyze the performance of nine operational global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) relative to climatology-based forecasts for 1 to 5-day accumulated precipitation based on the monsoon seasons 2007-2014 for three regions within northern tropical Africa. To assess the full potential of raw ensemble forecasts across spatial scales, we apply state-of-the-art statistical postprocessing methods in form of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS), and verify against station and spatially aggregated, satellite-based gridded observations. Raw ensemble forecasts are uncalibrated, unreliable, and underperform relative to climatology, independently of region, accumulation time, monsoon season, and ensemble. Differences between raw ensemble and climatological forecasts are large, and partly stem from poor prediction for low precipitation amounts. BMA and EMOS postprocessed forecasts are calibrated, reliable, and strongly improve on the raw ensembles, but - somewhat disappointingly - typically do not outperform climatology. Most EPSs exhibit slight improvements over the period 2007-2014, but overall have little added value compared to climatology. We suspect that the parametrization of convection is a potential cause for the sobering lack of ensemble forecast skill in a region dominated by mesoscale convective systems.

  13. A Scalable Version of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Spectral Forecast Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas E. Rosmond

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS includes a state-of-the-art spectral forecast model similar to models run at several major operational numerical weather prediction (NWP centers around the world. The model, developed by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL in Monterey, California, has run operational at the Fleet Numerical Meteorological and Oceanographic Center (FNMOC since 1982, and most recently is being run on a Cray C90 in a multi-tasked configuration. Typically the multi-tasked code runs on 10 to 15 processors with overall parallel efficiency of about 90%. resolution is T159L30, but other operational and research applications run at significantly lower resolutions. A scalable NOGAPS forecast model has been developed by NRL in anticipation of a FNMOC C90 replacement in about 2001, as well as for current NOGAPS research requirements to run on DOD High-Performance Computing (HPC scalable systems. The model is designed to run with message passing (MPI. Model design criteria include bit reproducibility for different processor numbers and reasonably efficient performance on fully shared memory, distributed memory, and distributed shared memory systems for a wide range of model resolutions. Results for a wide range of processor numbers, model resolutions, and different vendor architectures are presented. Single node performance has been disappointing on RISC based systems, at least compared to vector processor performance. This is a common complaint, and will require careful re-examination of traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP model software design and data organization to fully exploit future scalable architectures.

  14. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  15. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  16. Circulating C3 levels predict renal and global outcome in patients with renal vasculitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villacorta, Javier; Diaz-Crespo, Francisco; Acevedo, Mercedes; Cavero, Teresa; Guerrero, Carmen; Praga, Manuel; Fernandez-Juarez, Gema

    2016-11-01

    Several studies have demonstrated the crucial role of complement activation in the pathogenesis of ANCA-associated vasculitis. We aimed to assess the association between baseline serum C3 (sC3) levels and long-term outcomes in patients with renal vasculitis. This retrospective study included 111 patients with renal vasculitis from three hospitals who underwent a renal biopsy between 1997 and 2014. Serum levels of C3 were measured at the onset and the study population was divided into three tertiles according to sC3 concentrations (tertile 1 128 mg/dl). Patients with lower sC3 (tertile 1) were compared with those having higher levels of sC3 (tertile 2 and tertile 3). Histological, clinical, and laboratory data were recorded for analysis. The primary end point was the composite of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and death from any cause. Lower sC3 levels were associated with a higher need for dialysis and lower response rate to treatment (p = 0.04 and p = 0.007, respectively). Renal and global survival at 1 and 5 years was 53 and 46 % in patients with lower sC3 (tertile 1) compared with 72 and 65 % in patients with higher sC3 (upper two tertiles) (p = 0.04). In a multivariate Cox-regression model, when adjusted by renal function and histopatholologic categories, lower sC3 remained as an independent predictor of ESRD and death (HR, 1.9; 95 % CI, 1.1 to 3.4; p = 0.02). Baseline serum C3 levels have an independent prognostic value in predicting long-term renal and global survival in patients with renal vasculitis.

  17. The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L L; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R P; Senior, Rebecca A; Bennett, Dominic J; Booth, Hollie; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L P; Day, Julie; Echeverría-Londoño, Susy; Garon, Morgan; Harrison, Michelle L K; Ingram, Daniel J; Jung, Martin; Kemp, Victoria; Kirkpatrick, Lucinda; Martin, Callum D; Pan, Yuan; White, Hannah J; Aben, Job; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Adum, Gilbert B; Aguilar-Barquero, Virginia; Aizen, Marcelo A; Ancrenaz, Marc; Arbeláez-Cortés, Enrique; Armbrecht, Inge; Azhar, Badrul; Azpiroz, Adrián B; Baeten, Lander; Báldi, András; Banks, John E; Barlow, Jos; Batáry, Péter; Bates, Adam J; Bayne, Erin M; Beja, Pedro; Berg, Åke; Berry, Nicholas J; Bicknell, Jake E; Bihn, Jochen H; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Boekhout, Teun; Boutin, Céline; Bouyer, Jérémy; Brearley, Francis Q; Brito, Isabel; Brunet, Jörg; Buczkowski, Grzegorz; Buscardo, Erika; Cabra-García, Jimmy; Calviño-Cancela, María; Cameron, Sydney A; Cancello, Eliana M; Carrijo, Tiago F; Carvalho, Anelena L; Castro, Helena; Castro-Luna, Alejandro A; Cerda, Rolando; Cerezo, Alexis; Chauvat, Matthieu; Clarke, Frank M; Cleary, Daniel F R; Connop, Stuart P; D'Aniello, Biagio; da Silva, Pedro Giovâni; Darvill, Ben; Dauber, Jens; Dejean, Alain; Diekötter, Tim; Dominguez-Haydar, Yamileth; Dormann, Carsten F; Dumont, Bertrand; Dures, Simon G; Dynesius, Mats; Edenius, Lars; Elek, Zoltán; Entling, Martin H; Farwig, Nina; Fayle, Tom M; Felicioli, Antonio; Felton, Annika M; Ficetola, Gentile F; Filgueiras, Bruno K C; Fonte, Steven J; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Fukuda, Daisuke; Furlani, Dario; Ganzhorn, Jörg U; Garden, Jenni G; Gheler-Costa, Carla; Giordani, Paolo; Giordano, Simonetta; Gottschalk, Marco S; Goulson, Dave; Gove, Aaron D; Grogan, James; Hanley, Mick E; Hanson, Thor; Hashim, Nor R; Hawes, Joseph E; Hébert, Christian; Helden, Alvin J; Henden, John-André; Hernández, Lionel; Herzog, Felix; Higuera-Diaz, Diego; Hilje, Branko; Horgan, Finbarr G; Horváth, Roland; Hylander, Kristoffer; Isaacs-Cubides, Paola; Ishitani, Masahiro; Jacobs, Carmen T; Jaramillo, Víctor J; Jauker, Birgit; Jonsell, Mats; Jung, Thomas S; Kapoor, Vena; Kati, Vassiliki; Katovai, Eric; Kessler, Michael; Knop, Eva; Kolb, Annette; Kőrösi, Ádám; Lachat, Thibault; Lantschner, Victoria; Le Féon, Violette; LeBuhn, Gretchen; Légaré, Jean-Philippe; Letcher, Susan G; Littlewood, Nick A; López-Quintero, Carlos A; Louhaichi, Mounir; Lövei, Gabor L; Lucas-Borja, Manuel Esteban; Luja, Victor H; Maeto, Kaoru; Magura, Tibor; Mallari, Neil Aldrin; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Marshall, E J P; Martínez, Eliana; Mayfield, Margaret M; Mikusinski, Grzegorz; Milder, Jeffrey C; Miller, James R; Morales, Carolina L; Muchane, Mary N; Muchane, Muchai; Naidoo, Robin; Nakamura, Akihiro; Naoe, Shoji; Nates-Parra, Guiomar; Navarrete Gutierrez, Dario A; Neuschulz, Eike L; Noreika, Norbertas; Norfolk, Olivia; Noriega, Jorge Ari; Nöske, Nicole M; O'Dea, Niall; Oduro, William; Ofori-Boateng, Caleb; Oke, Chris O; Osgathorpe, Lynne M; Paritsis, Juan; Parra-H, Alejandro; Pelegrin, Nicolás; Peres, Carlos A; Persson, Anna S; Petanidou, Theodora; Phalan, Ben; Philips, T Keith; Poveda, Katja; Power, Eileen F; Presley, Steven J; Proença, Vânia; Quaranta, Marino; Quintero, Carolina; Redpath-Downing, Nicola A; Reid, J Leighton; Reis, Yana T; Ribeiro, Danilo B; Richardson, Barbara A; Richardson, Michael J; Robles, Carolina A; Römbke, Jörg; Romero-Duque, Luz Piedad; Rosselli, Loreta; Rossiter, Stephen J; Roulston, T'ai H; Rousseau, Laurent; Sadler, Jonathan P; Sáfián, Szabolcs; Saldaña-Vázquez, Romeo A; Samnegård, Ulrika; Schüepp, Christof; Schweiger, Oliver; Sedlock, Jodi L; Shahabuddin, Ghazala; Sheil, Douglas; Silva, Fernando A B; Slade, Eleanor M; Smith-Pardo, Allan H; Sodhi, Navjot S; Somarriba, Eduardo J; Sosa, Ramón A; Stout, Jane C; Struebig, Matthew J; Sung, Yik-Hei; Threlfall, Caragh G; Tonietto, Rebecca; Tóthmérész, Béla; Tscharntke, Teja; Turner, Edgar C; Tylianakis, Jason M; Vanbergen, Adam J; Vassilev, Kiril; Verboven, Hans A F; Vergara, Carlos H; Vergara, Pablo M; Verhulst, Jort; Walker, Tony R; Wang, Yanping; Watling, James I; Wells, Konstans; Williams, Christopher D; Willig, Michael R; Woinarski, John C Z; Wolf, Jan H D; Woodcock, Ben A; Yu, Douglas W; Zaitsev, Andrey S; Collen, Ben; Ewers, Rob M; Mace, Georgina M; Purves, Drew W; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Purvis, Andy

    2014-01-01

    Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project – and avert – future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups – including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems – http://www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015. PMID:25558364

  18. Thermal specialization across large geographical scales predicts the resilience of mangrove crab populations to global warming

    KAUST Repository

    Fusi, Marco; Giomi, Folco; Babbini, Simone; Daffonchio, Daniele; Mcquaid, Christopher D.; Porri, Francesca; Cannicci, Stefano

    2014-01-01

    The broad prediction that ectotherms will be more vulnerable to climate change in the tropics than in temperate regions includes assumptions about centre/edge population effects that can only be tested by within-species comparisons across wide latitudinal gradients. Here, we investigated the thermal vulnerability of two mangrove crab species, comparing populations at the centre (Kenya) and edge (South Africa) of their distributions. At the same time, we investigated the role of respiratory mode (water- versus air-breathing) in determining the thermal tolerance in amphibious organisms. To do this, we compared the vulnerability to acute temperature fluctuations of two sympatric species with two different lifestyle adaptations: the free living Perisesarma guttatum and the burrowing Uca urvillei, both pivotal to the ecosystem functioning of mangroves. The results revealed the air-breathing U. urvillei to be a thermal generalist with much higher thermal tolerances than P. guttatum. Importantly, however, we found that, while U. urvillei showed little difference between edge and centre populations, P. guttatum showed adaptation to local conditions. Equatorial populations had elevated tolerances to acute heat stress and mechanisms of partial thermoregulation, which make them less vulnerable to global warming than temperate conspecifics. The results reveal both the importance of respiratory mode to thermal tolerance and the unexpected potential for low latitude populations/species to endure a warming climate. The results also contribute to a conceptual model on the latitudinal thermal tolerance of these key species. This highlights the need for an integrated population-level approach to predict the consequences of climate change. © 2014 The Authors.

  19. Thermal specialization across large geographical scales predicts the resilience of mangrove crab populations to global warming

    KAUST Repository

    Fusi, Marco

    2014-11-18

    The broad prediction that ectotherms will be more vulnerable to climate change in the tropics than in temperate regions includes assumptions about centre/edge population effects that can only be tested by within-species comparisons across wide latitudinal gradients. Here, we investigated the thermal vulnerability of two mangrove crab species, comparing populations at the centre (Kenya) and edge (South Africa) of their distributions. At the same time, we investigated the role of respiratory mode (water- versus air-breathing) in determining the thermal tolerance in amphibious organisms. To do this, we compared the vulnerability to acute temperature fluctuations of two sympatric species with two different lifestyle adaptations: the free living Perisesarma guttatum and the burrowing Uca urvillei, both pivotal to the ecosystem functioning of mangroves. The results revealed the air-breathing U. urvillei to be a thermal generalist with much higher thermal tolerances than P. guttatum. Importantly, however, we found that, while U. urvillei showed little difference between edge and centre populations, P. guttatum showed adaptation to local conditions. Equatorial populations had elevated tolerances to acute heat stress and mechanisms of partial thermoregulation, which make them less vulnerable to global warming than temperate conspecifics. The results reveal both the importance of respiratory mode to thermal tolerance and the unexpected potential for low latitude populations/species to endure a warming climate. The results also contribute to a conceptual model on the latitudinal thermal tolerance of these key species. This highlights the need for an integrated population-level approach to predict the consequences of climate change. © 2014 The Authors.

  20. Pension Fund

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2009-01-01

    In line with the decisions concerning the new governance of the Pension Fund taken by the Council in June and September 2007, amendments to Section 2 "Structure and Functions" of the Rules of the Fund (Article I 2.08 – Composition of the Investment Committee and Article I 2.08b – Chairman of the Investment Committee) entered into force on 1st January 2009. These articles replace the provisions of the existing Regulations of the Investment Committee of the Pension Fund relating to the composition and chairman of the Investment Committee. Amendment No. 27 (PDF document) may be downloaded directly from the Pension Fund website: http://pensions.web.cern.ch/Pensions/statuts___rules.htm or obtained from the Administration of the Fund (Tel. 022 7672742, mailto:Barbara.Bordjah@cern.ch).

  1. Predictability problems of global change as seen through natural systems complexity description. 2. Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir V. Kozoderov

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available Developing the general statements of the proposed global change theory, outlined in Part 1 of the publication, Kolmogorov's probability space is used to study properties of information measures (unconditional, joint and conditional entropies, information divergence, mutual information, etc.. Sets of elementary events, the specified algebra of their sub-sets and probability measures for the algebra are composite parts of the space. The information measures are analyzed using the mathematical expectance operator and the adequacy between an additive function of sets and their equivalents in the form of the measures. As a result, explanations are given to multispectral satellite imagery visualization procedures using Markov's chains of random variables represented by pixels of the imagery. The proposed formalism of the information measures application enables to describe the natural targets complexity by syntactically governing probabilities. Asserted as that of signal/noise ratios finding for anomalies of natural processes, the predictability problem is solved by analyses of temporal data sets of related measurements for key regions and their background within contextually coherent structures of natural targets and between particular boundaries of the structures.

  2. Initializing carbon cycle predictions from the Community Land Model by assimilating global biomass observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, A. M.; Hoar, T. J.; Smith, W. K.; Moore, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    The locations and longevity of terrestrial carbon sinks remain uncertain, however it is clear that in order to predict long-term climate changes the role of the biosphere in surface energy and carbon balance must be understood and incorporated into earth system models (ESMs). Aboveground biomass, the amount of carbon stored in vegetation, is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, representing the balance of uptake through gross primary productivity (GPP), losses from respiration, senescence and mortality over hundreds of years. The best predictions of current and future land-atmosphere fluxes are likely from the integration of process-based knowledge contained in models and information from observations of changes in carbon stocks using data assimilation (DA). By exploiting long times series, it is possible to accurately detect variability and change in carbon cycle dynamics through monitoring ecosystem states, for example biomass derived from vegetation optical depth (VOD), and use this information to initialize models before making predictions. To make maximum use of information about the current state of global ecosystems when using models we have developed a system that combines the Community Land Model (CLM) with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), a community tool for ensemble DA. This DA system is highly innovative in its complexity, completeness and capabilities. Here we described a series of activities, using both Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) and real observations, that have allowed us to quantify the potential impact of assimilating VOD data into CLM-DART on future land-atmosphere fluxes. VOD data are particularly suitable to use in this activity due to their long temporal coverage and appropriate scale when combined with CLM, but their absolute values rely on many assumptions. Therefore, we have had to assess the implications of the VOD retrieval algorithms, with an emphasis on detecting uncertainty due to

  3. Predicting Ambulance Time of Arrival to the Emergency Department Using Global Positioning System and Google Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleischman, Ross J.; Lundquist, Mark; Jui, Jonathan; Newgard, Craig D.; Warden, Craig

    2014-01-01

    Objective To derive and validate a model that accurately predicts ambulance arrival time that could be implemented as a Google Maps web application. Methods This was a retrospective study of all scene transports in Multnomah County, Oregon, from January 1 through December 31, 2008. Scene and destination hospital addresses were converted to coordinates. ArcGIS Network Analyst was used to estimate transport times based on street network speed limits. We then created a linear regression model to improve the accuracy of these street network estimates using weather, patient characteristics, use of lights and sirens, daylight, and rush-hour intervals. The model was derived from a 50% sample and validated on the remainder. Significance of the covariates was determined by p times recorded by computer-aided dispatch. We then built a Google Maps-based web application to demonstrate application in real-world EMS operations. Results There were 48,308 included transports. Street network estimates of transport time were accurate within 5 minutes of actual transport time less than 16% of the time. Actual transport times were longer during daylight and rush-hour intervals and shorter with use of lights and sirens. Age under 18 years, gender, wet weather, and trauma system entry were not significant predictors of transport time. Our model predicted arrival time within 5 minutes 73% of the time. For lights and sirens transports, accuracy was within 5 minutes 77% of the time. Accuracy was identical in the validation dataset. Lights and sirens saved an average of 3.1 minutes for transports under 8.8 minutes, and 5.3 minutes for longer transports. Conclusions An estimate of transport time based only on a street network significantly underestimated transport times. A simple model incorporating few variables can predict ambulance time of arrival to the emergency department with good accuracy. This model could be linked to global positioning system data and an automated Google Maps web

  4. Follow the money: how the billions of dollars that flow from smokers in poor nations to companies in rich nations greatly exceed funding for global tobacco control and what might be done about it.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callard, Cynthia

    2010-08-01

    The business of selling cigarettes is increasingly concentrated in the hands of five tobacco companies that collectively control almost 90% of the world's cigarette market, four of which are publicly traded corporations. The economic activities of these cigarette manufacturers can be monitored through their reports to shareholders and other public documents. Reports for 2008 show that the revenues of these five companies exceeded $300 billion, of which more than $160 billion was provided to governments as taxes, and that corporate earnings of the four publicly traded companies were over $25 billion, of which $14 billion was retained after corporate income taxes were paid. By contrast, funding for domestic and international tobacco control is not reliably reported. Estimated funding for global tobacco control in 2008, at $240 million, is significantly lower than resources provided to address other highmortality global health challenges. Tobacco control has not yet benefited from the innovative finance mechanisms that are in place for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. The Framework Convention On Tobacco Control (FCTC) process could be used to redirect some of the earnings from transnational tobacco sales to fund FCTC implementation or other global health efforts.

  5. ARGICULTURAL LAND PROTECTION FUND AND FOREST FUND AS ECOLOGICAL FUNDS

    OpenAIRE

    Bartosz Bartniczak

    2009-01-01

    Funds for environmental protection and water management, Agricultural Land Protection Fund and Forest Fund make up the Polish system of special fund in environment protection. The main aim of this article is to analyze the activity of two latest funds. The article tries to answer the question whether that funds could be considered as ecological funds. The author described incomes and outlays of that funds and showed which reform should be done in Polish special funds system.

  6. Contribution of Global Polio Eradication Initiative-Funded Personnel to the Strengthening of Routine Immunization Programs in the 10 Focus Countries of the Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Ent, Maya M V X; Swift, Rachel D; Anaokar, Sameer; Hegg, Lea Anne; Eggers, Rudolf; Cochi, Stephen L

    2017-07-01

    The Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan (PEESP) established a target that at least 50% of the time of personnel receiving funding from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) for polio eradication activities (hereafter, "GPEI-funded personnel") should be dedicated to the strengthening of immunization systems. This article describes the self-reported profile of how GPEI-funded personnel allocate their time toward immunization goals and activities beyond those associated with polio, the training they have received to conduct tasks to strengthen routine immunization systems, and the type of tasks they have conducted. A survey of approximately 1000 field managers of frontline GPEI-funded personnel was conducted by Boston Consulting Group in the 10 focus countries of the PEESP during 2 phases, in 2013 and 2014, to determine time allocation among frontline staff. Country-specific reports on the training of GPEI-funded personnel were reviewed, and an analysis of the types of tasks that were reported was conducted. A total of 467 managers responded to the survey. Forty-seven percent of the time (range, 23%-61%) of GPEI-funded personnel was dedicated to tasks related to strengthening immunization programs, other than polio eradication. Less time was spent on polio-associated activities in countries that had already interrupted wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission, compared with findings for WPV-endemic countries. All countries conducted periodic trainings of the GPEI-funded personnel. The types of non-polio-related tasks performed by GPEI-funded personnel varied among countries and included surveillance, microplanning, newborn registration and defaulter tracing, monitoring of routine immunization activities, and support of district immunization task teams, as well as promotion of health behaviors, such as clean-water use and good hygiene and sanitation practices. In all countries, GPEI-funded personnel perform critical tasks in the strengthening of routine

  7. Contribution of Global Polio Eradication Initiative–Funded Personnel to the Strengthening of Routine Immunization Programs in the 10 Focus Countries of the Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swift, Rachel D.; Anaokar, Sameer; Hegg, Lea Anne; Eggers, Rudolf; Cochi, Stephen L.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Background. The Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan (PEESP) established a target that at least 50% of the time of personnel receiving funding from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) for polio eradication activities (hereafter, “GPEI-funded personnel”) should be dedicated to the strengthening of immunization systems. This article describes the self-reported profile of how GPEI-funded personnel allocate their time toward immunization goals and activities beyond those associated with polio, the training they have received to conduct tasks to strengthen routine immunization systems, and the type of tasks they have conducted. Methods. A survey of approximately 1000 field managers of frontline GPEI-funded personnel was conducted by Boston Consulting Group in the 10 focus countries of the PEESP during 2 phases, in 2013 and 2014, to determine time allocation among frontline staff. Country-specific reports on the training of GPEI-funded personnel were reviewed, and an analysis of the types of tasks that were reported was conducted. Results. A total of 467 managers responded to the survey. Forty-seven percent of the time (range, 23%–61%) of GPEI-funded personnel was dedicated to tasks related to strengthening immunization programs, other than polio eradication. Less time was spent on polio-associated activities in countries that had already interrupted wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission, compared with findings for WPV-endemic countries. All countries conducted periodic trainings of the GPEI-funded personnel. The types of non–polio-related tasks performed by GPEI-funded personnel varied among countries and included surveillance, microplanning, newborn registration and defaulter tracing, monitoring of routine immunization activities, and support of district immunization task teams, as well as promotion of health behaviors, such as clean-water use and good hygiene and sanitation practices. Conclusion. In all countries, GPEI-funded personnel

  8. Simulations research of the global predictive control with self-adaptive in the gas turbine of the nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su Jie; Xia Guoqing; Zhang Wei

    2007-01-01

    For further improving the dynamic control capabilities of the gas turbine of the nuclear power plant, this paper puts forward to apply the algorithm of global predictive control with self-adaptive in the rotate speed control of the gas turbine, including control structure and the design of controller in the base of expounding the math model of the gas turbine of the nuclear power plant. the simulation results show that the respond of the change of the gas turbine speed under the control algorithm of global predictive control with self-adaptive is ten second faster than that under the PID control algorithm, and the output value of the gas turbine speed under the PID control algorithm is 1%-2% higher than that under the control slgorithm of global predictive control with self-adaptive. It shows that the algorithm of global predictive control with self-adaptive can better control the output of the speed of the gas turbine of the nuclear power plant and get the better control effect. (authors)

  9. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NCEP-Global Forecast System (GFS) 0-10cm Soil-Moisture Forecast Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast 0-10cm soil-moisture data at 37.5km resolution is created at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the purpose of near...

  10. Global forward-predicting dynamic routing for traffic concurrency space stereo multi-layer scale-free network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Wei-Hao; Zhou Bin; Liu En-Xiao; Lu Wei-Dang; Zhou Ting

    2015-01-01

    Many real communication networks, such as oceanic monitoring network and land environment observation network, can be described as space stereo multi-layer structure, and the traffic in these networks is concurrent. Understanding how traffic dynamics depend on these real communication networks and finding an effective routing strategy that can fit the circumstance of traffic concurrency and enhance the network performance are necessary. In this light, we propose a traffic model for space stereo multi-layer complex network and introduce two kinds of global forward-predicting dynamic routing strategies, global forward-predicting hybrid minimum queue (HMQ) routing strategy and global forward-predicting hybrid minimum degree and queue (HMDQ) routing strategy, for traffic concurrency space stereo multi-layer scale-free networks. By applying forward-predicting strategy, the proposed routing strategies achieve better performances in traffic concurrency space stereo multi-layer scale-free networks. Compared with the efficient routing strategy and global dynamic routing strategy, HMDQ and HMQ routing strategies can optimize the traffic distribution, alleviate the number of congested packets effectively and reach much higher network capacity. (paper)

  11. Unifying Viral Genetics and Human Transportation Data to Predict the Global Transmission Dynamics of Human Influenza H3N2

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. Lemey (Philippe); A. Rambaut (Andrew); T. Bedford (Trevor); R. Faria (Rui); F. Bielejec (Filip); G. Baele (Guy); C.A. Russell (Colin); D.J. Smith (Derek James); O. Pybus (Oliver); K. Brockmann; M.A. Suchard (Marc)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractInformation on global human movement patterns is central to spatial epidemiological models used to predict the behavior of influenza and other infectious diseases. Yet it remains difficult to test which modes of dispersal drive pathogen spread at various geographic scales using standard

  12. Global modelling to predict timber production and prices: the GFPM approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph Buongiorno

    2014-01-01

    Timber production and prices are determined by the global demand for forest products, and the capability of producers from many countries to grow and harvest trees, transform them into products and export. The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) simulates how this global demand and supply of multiple products among many countries determines prices and attendant...

  13. INVESTMENT FUNDS IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    COPIL CRINA ANGELA

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available I chose this topic because my goal was to capture in detail all aspects of the evolution of investment funds under the influence of factors leading to globalization of the banking financial market. Main motivation was that I proposed to present in an original manner the concept of investment in mutual funds by the thoroughness of the following points: the different types of investment funds from Romania, the advantages, the risks and the specific costs of the investment in mutual funds and the effects of the financial crisis on the industry of the investment funds on the national level. The financial crisis and the risk of infecting the global economy affected the taste of risk of the investors and their request for the investment fund, determining the orientation of the investors to the funds with a lower risk – the diversified funds, the funds of bonds and the monetary funds. I considered important the theoretical approach of the concept of investments in investment funds because they are a barometer of the macro economical stability, in case the economical increase is positive on the macro economical level the investments in investments funds are increasing too. In Romania the market of the mutual funds is at an incipient level, but with potential and perspectives of development. Due to the bankruptcy of FNI in the beginning of the years 2000 and due to the absence of a clear legislation regarding the calculation of the unitary value of the net asset and the control of the activity developed by the investment funds, the development of the industry of the investment funds had to fight against the crisis of credibility generated by these events. The convergence of the Romanian economy to the European standards will attract also a modification of the structure of the financial investments of the individuals, by an increase of the investments in funds. In the world the investment funds are preferred by the investors for their advantages

  14. Unique contributions of dynamic versus global measures of parent-child interaction quality in predicting school adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardack, Sarah; Herbers, Janette E; Obradović, Jelena

    2017-09-01

    This study investigates the unique contribution of microsocial and global measures of parent-child positive coregulation (PCR) in predicting children's behavioral and social adjustment in school. Using a community sample of 102 children, ages 4-6, and their parents, we conducted nested path analytic models to identify the unique effects of 2 measures of PCR on school outcomes. Microsocial PCR independently predicted fewer externalizing and inattention/impulsive behaviors in school. Global PCR did not uniquely relate to children's behavioral and social adjustment outcomes. Household socioeconomic status was related to both microsocial and global measures of PCR, but not directly associated with school outcomes. Findings illustrate the importance of using dynamic measures of PCR based on microsocial coding to further understand how the quality of parent-child interaction is related to children's self-regulatory and social development during school transition. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Challenges of NGO-to-state Referral in the Delivery of HIV Prevention Programs in Ukraine Supported by the Global Fund

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svetlana McGill

    2016-03-01

    Conclusions: Gaps in linking HIV patients to the HIV care continuum have been identified as a potentially problematic issue in delivery of HIV prevention services by GF funded NGOs. With an anticipated GF exit from Ukraine, the lack of clearly defined NGO-to-state referrals of HIV patients complicates the transition of NGO run services into state funding. Further steps to improve referral systems are necessary to ensure a smooth transition and enable Ukraine to fight its HIV epidemic effectively.

  16. Differences in research funding for women scientists: a systematic comparison of UK investments in global infectious disease research during 1997-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Head, Michael G; Fitchett, Joseph R; Cooke, Mary K; Wurie, Fatima B; Atun, Rifat

    2013-12-09

    There has not previously been a systematic comparison of awards for research funding in infectious diseases by sex. We investigated funding awards to UK institutions for all infectious disease research from 1997 to 2010, across disease categories and along the research and development continuum. Systematic comparison. Data were obtained from several sources for awards from the period 1997 to 2010 and each study assigned to-disease categories; type of science (preclinical, phases I-III trials, product development, implementation research); categories of funding organisation. Fold differences and statistical analysis were used to compare total investment, study numbers, mean grant and median grant between men and women. 6052 studies were included in the final analysis, comprising 4357 grants (72%) awarded to men and 1695 grants (28%) awarded to women, totalling £2.274 billion. Of this, men received £1.786 billion (78.5%) and women £488 million (21.5%). The median value of award was greater for men (£179 389; IQR £59 146-£371 977) than women (£125 556; IQR £30 982-£261 834). Awards were greater for male principal investigators (PIs) across all infectious disease systems, excepting neurological infections and sexually transmitted infections. The proportion of total funding awarded to women ranged from 14.3% in 1998 to 26.8% in 2009 (mean 21.4%), and was lowest for preclinical research at 18.2% (£285.5 million of £1.573 billion) and highest for operational research at 30.9% (£151.4 million of £489.7 million). There are consistent differences in funding received by men and women PIs: women have fewer funded studies and receive less funding in absolute and in relative terms; the median funding awarded to women is lower across most infectious disease areas, by funder, and type of science. These differences remain broadly unchanged over the 14-year study period.

  17. Pension Fund

    CERN Multimedia

    2005-01-01

    Amendment No 21 to the Rules and Regulations of the Pension Fund has just been published and can be obtained from Department/Unit secretariats or, in the case of pensioners, directly from the Administration of the Fund (tel. 767-91 94/27 38), bldg 5, 1-030. This Amendment, which entered into force on 17.03.2005, concerns Article I 2.05 (Composition of the Governing Board) and Article I 2.06 (Chairman and Vice-Chairmen of the Governing Board) of the Rules of the Pension Fund.

  18. Pension Fund

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2007-01-01

    The Rules and Regulations of the Pension Fund have been updated, following Council's decision of December 2006 concerning the adjustment of pensions, fixed amounts and allowances by 1.16% with effect from 1.1.2007 (Annex B, page 31). The updated version can be downloaded directly from the Pension Fund's website (http://pensions.web.cern.ch/Pensions/statuts___rules.htm or obtained from the Fund Administration (Tel. 022 767 27 42, Building 5, 1-030, or by e-mail Sophia.Revol@cern.ch).

  19. Pension Fund

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2007-01-01

    The Rules and Regulations of the Pension Fund have been updated, following Council's decision of December 2006 concerning the adjustment of pensions, fixed amounts and allowances by 1.16% with effect from 1.1.2007 (Annex B, page 31). The updated version can be downloaded directly from the Pension Fund's website (http://pensions.web.cern.ch/Pensions/statuts___rules.htm) or obtained from the Fund Administration (Tel. 022 767 27 42, Building 5, 1-030), or by e-mail (Sophia.Revol@cern.ch).

  20. Global Warming: Predicting OPEC Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Petroleum Consumption Using Neural Network and Hybrid Cuckoo Search Algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiroma, Haruna; Abdul-kareem, Sameem; Khan, Abdullah; Nawi, Nazri Mohd; Gital, Abdulsalam Ya'u; Shuib, Liyana; Abubakar, Adamu I; Rahman, Muhammad Zubair; Herawan, Tutut

    2015-01-01

    Global warming is attracting attention from policy makers due to its impacts such as floods, extreme weather, increases in temperature by 0.7°C, heat waves, storms, etc. These disasters result in loss of human life and billions of dollars in property. Global warming is believed to be caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities including the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from petroleum consumption. Limitations of the previous methods of predicting CO2 emissions and lack of work on the prediction of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) CO2 emissions from petroleum consumption have motivated this research. The OPEC CO2 emissions data were collected from the Energy Information Administration. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) adaptability and performance motivated its choice for this study. To improve effectiveness of the ANN, the cuckoo search algorithm was hybridised with accelerated particle swarm optimisation for training the ANN to build a model for the prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions. The proposed model predicts OPEC CO2 emissions for 3, 6, 9, 12 and 16 years with an improved accuracy and speed over the state-of-the-art methods. An accurate prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions can serve as a reference point for propagating the reorganisation of economic development in OPEC member countries with the view of reducing CO2 emissions to Kyoto benchmarks--hence, reducing global warming. The policy implications are discussed in the paper.

  1. Global Warming: Predicting OPEC Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Petroleum Consumption Using Neural Network and Hybrid Cuckoo Search Algorithm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haruna Chiroma

    Full Text Available Global warming is attracting attention from policy makers due to its impacts such as floods, extreme weather, increases in temperature by 0.7°C, heat waves, storms, etc. These disasters result in loss of human life and billions of dollars in property. Global warming is believed to be caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities including the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2 from petroleum consumption. Limitations of the previous methods of predicting CO2 emissions and lack of work on the prediction of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC CO2 emissions from petroleum consumption have motivated this research.The OPEC CO2 emissions data were collected from the Energy Information Administration. Artificial Neural Network (ANN adaptability and performance motivated its choice for this study. To improve effectiveness of the ANN, the cuckoo search algorithm was hybridised with accelerated particle swarm optimisation for training the ANN to build a model for the prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions. The proposed model predicts OPEC CO2 emissions for 3, 6, 9, 12 and 16 years with an improved accuracy and speed over the state-of-the-art methods.An accurate prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions can serve as a reference point for propagating the reorganisation of economic development in OPEC member countries with the view of reducing CO2 emissions to Kyoto benchmarks--hence, reducing global warming. The policy implications are discussed in the paper.

  2. A framework for predicting global silicate weathering and CO2 drawdown rates over geologic time-scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilley, George E; Porder, Stephen

    2008-11-04

    Global silicate weathering drives long-time-scale fluctuations in atmospheric CO(2). While tectonics, climate, and rock-type influence silicate weathering, it is unclear how these factors combine to drive global rates. Here, we explore whether local erosion rates, GCM-derived dust fluxes, temperature, and water balance can capture global variation in silicate weathering. Our spatially explicit approach predicts 1.9-4.6 x 10(13) mols of Si weathered globally per year, within a factor of 4-10 of estimates of global silicate fluxes derived from riverine measurements. Similarly, our watershed-based estimates are within a factor of 4-18 (mean of 5.3) of the silica fluxes measured in the world's ten largest rivers. Eighty percent of total global silicate weathering product traveling as dissolved load occurs within a narrow range (0.01-0.5 mm/year) of erosion rates. Assuming each mol of Mg or Ca reacts with 1 mol of CO(2), 1.5-3.3 x 10(8) tons/year of CO(2) is consumed by silicate weathering, consistent with previously published estimates. Approximately 50% of this drawdown occurs in the world's active mountain belts, emphasizing the importance of tectonic regulation of global climate over geologic timescales.

  3. Pension Fund

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    As announced in the Bulletin during the summer, the Pension Fund has published a complete new version of the Fund's Rules and Regulations incorporating all amendments up to 1 November 2006, following the decisions of the CERN Council. This new version of the Rules and Regulations can be downloaded in A4 format (pdf document) directly from the Pension Fund's website (http://pensions.web.cern.ch/Pensions/statuts___rules.htm for the Rules and http://pensions.web.cern.ch/Pensions/règlements___regulations.htm for the Regulations) or obtained from the Fund Administration (Tel. 022 767 27 42, Building 5, 1-030, or by e-mail Sophia.Revol@cern.ch).

  4. Pension Fund

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2009-01-01

    In line with the decisions taken by the Council in June and September 2007 concerning the new governance of the Pension Fund, amendments to Section 2 «Structure and Functions» of the Rules of the Fund entered into force on 1st January 2009 (Article I 2.08 – Composition of the Investment Committee and Article I 2.08bis – Chairman of the Investment Committee). Amendment n°27 may be downloaded (PDF document) directly from the Pension Fund website: http://pensions.web.cern.ch/Pensions/statuts___rules.htm or obtained from the Administration of the Fund (Tel. 022 767 2742, mailto:Barbara.Bordjah@cern.ch).

  5. Pension Fund

    CERN Multimedia

    2004-01-01

    Amendment No 20 to the Rules and Regulations of the Pension Fund has just been published and can be obtained from Department/Unit secretariats or, in the case of pensioners, directly from the Administration of the Fund (tel. 767-91 94/27 38), bldg 5, 1-030. This Amendment, which entered into force on 1.1.2004, concerns the fixed sums and allowances adjusted at same date (Annex B).

  6. Pension Fund

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2008-01-01

    The 2007 Annual Report and Accounts of the Pension Fund which was approved by Council at its session of 20 June 2008, is now available from the Departmental secretariats. Pension beneficiaries who wish to obtain this document should contact Emilie Clerc (Tel. + 41 22 767 87 98), building 5-5/017. It is also available on the Pension fund site: http://pensions.web.cern.ch/Pensions/

  7. Chasing a changing climate: Reproductive and dispersal traits predict how sessile species respond to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archambault, Jennifer M.; Cope, W. Gregory; Kwak, Thomas J.

    2018-01-01

    AimStudies of species' range shifts have become increasingly relevant for understanding ecology and biogeography in the face of accelerated global change. The combination of limited mobility and imperilled status places some species at a potentially greater risk of range loss, extirpation or extinction due to climate change. To assess the ability of organisms with limited movement and dispersal capabilities to track shifts associated with climate change, we evaluated reproductive and dispersal traits of freshwater mussels (Unionida), sessile invertebrates that require species‐specific fish for larval dispersal.LocationNorth American Atlantic Slope rivers.MethodsTo understand how unionid mussels may cope with and adapt to current and future warming trends, we identified mechanisms that facilitated their colonization of the northern Atlantic Slope river basins in North America after the Last Glacial Maximum. We compiled species occurrence and life history trait information for each of 55 species, and then selected life history traits for which ample data were available (larval brooding duration, host fish specificity, host infection strategy, and body size) and analysed whether the trait state for each was related to mussel distribution in Atlantic Slope rivers.ResultsBrooding duration (p  .10).Main conclusionsOur results are potentially applicable to many species for which life history traits have not been well‐documented, because reproductive and dispersal traits in unionid mussels typically follow phylogenetic relationships. These findings may help resource managers prioritize species according to climate change vulnerability and predict which species might become further imperilled with climate warming. Finally, we suggest that similar trait‐based decision support frameworks may be applicable for other movement limited taxa.

  8. Pension Fund

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2008-01-01

    The Pension Fund Governing Board (PFGB) held two meetings over the summer, the first on 9 June and the second on 1st September. The agendas of the two meetings had several items in common, including progress reports on the work of the four working groups. Group 1, which is responsible for the revision of Chapter I, Section 2 of the Rules of the Fund, has made good progress but will need more time to complete its terms of reference in view of the number and complexity of the articles to be amended. In parallel, the Group has approved a code of conduct for the Pension Fund, which is based, in particular, on the new charter introduced for Swiss pension funds by the Swiss Association of Provident Institutions (ASIP) and the CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) code of ethics applicable to members of pension fund bodies. The PFGB took note that the Group had also been working on the rules relating to the status of the personnel of the Fund and the composition of the Investment Committee. The work of Group 2, responsi...

  9. Pension fund

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    At its June 2006 meeting, the Finance Committee approved the following amendment to Article 6a of the Regulations for elections to the Governing Board of the Pension Fund, which will enter into force on 1.7.2006: Current text New text ... 6a. The Administrator of the Fund shall be responsible for holding the elections and for issuing all relevant information. ... ... 6a. The Administrator of the Fund shall be responsible for holding the elections by electronic voting or, if this method cannot be used, following the procedure outlined in Articles 6i., 6j. and 6k. below. He shall issue to the members of the Pension Fund all relevant information concerning the elections. The deadlines mentioned in paragraphs 6i. and 6j. below shall apply mutatis mutandis to electronic voting. ... The amendment will allow the Pension Fund to use an electronic voting procedure for the election of elected members to the Governing Board of the Fund. It will be included in a complete new edition of the Rules and Regulatio...

  10. Prediction of Daily Global Solar Radiation by Daily Temperatures and Artificial Neural Networks in Different Climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. I Saedi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Global solar radiation is the sum of direct, diffuse, and reflected solar radiation. Weather forecasts, agricultural practices, and solar equipment development are three major fields that need proper information about solar radiation. Furthermore, sun in regarded as a huge source of renewable and clean energy which can be used in numerous applications to get rid of environmental impacts of non-renewable fossil fuels. Therefore, easy and fast estimation of daily global solar radiation would play an effective role is these affairs. Materials and Methods This study aimed at predicting the daily global solar radiation by means of artificial neural network (ANN method, based on easy-to-gain weather data i.e. daily mean, minimum and maximum temperatures. Having a variety of climates with long-term valid weather data, Washington State, located at the northwestern part of USA was chosen for this purpose. It has a total number of 19 weather stations to cover all the State climates. First, a station with the largest number of valid historical weather data (Lind was chosen to develop, validate, and test different ANN models. Three training algorithms i.e. Levenberg – Marquardt (LM, Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG, and Bayesian regularization (BR were tested in one and two hidden layer networks each with up to 20 neurons to derive six best architectures. R, RMSE, MAPE, and scatter plots were considered to evaluate each network in all steps. In order to investigate the generalizability of the best six models, they were tested in other Washington State weather stations. The most accurate and general models was evaluated in an Iran sample weather station which was chosen to be Mashhad. Results and Discussion The variation of MSE for the three training functions in one hidden layer models for Lind station indicated that SCG converged weights and biases in shorter time than LM, and LM did that faster than BR. It means that SCG provided the fastest

  11. Mutual Fund Performances of Polish Domestic Equity Fund Managers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ömer faruk tan

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the article: The main purpose of the paper is empirically evaluating selectivity skills and market timing ability of Polish fund managers during the period from January 2009 to November 2014. After the global financial crisis of 2008, in this period of quantitative easing (QE, thanks to an increase in the money supply, a capital flow from developed countries to developing countries was observed. In this study, we try to analyse that although the financial market in Poland made an incredible progress, whether fund managers show better or worse performance than the market. Methodology/Methods: In order to evaluate fund manager performances, Jensen alpha (1968 is computed, which depicts selectivity skills of fund managers. For determining market timing ability of fund managers, Treynor & Mazuy (1966 regression analysis and Henriksson & Merton (1981 regression analysis are applied. Fund performances are evaluated using Warsaw Stock Exchange Index as the benchmark index. Scientific aim: In this study, we have tried to evaluate selectivity skills and market timing ability of Polish fund managers. A total of 14 equity fund managers’ performances are analysed. The study can be guiding especially for investors who are interested in Polish equity fund performances in a period where emerging stock markets outperformed with quantitative easing. Findings: Jensen (1968 alphas indicate that over this period fund managers did not have selective ability, as none of the 14 funds had statistically significant positive alphas. Furthermore, Treynor & Mazuy (1966 and Henriksson & Merton (1981 regression analysis indicate that over the same period fund managers did not also have market timing ability, as again none of the 14 funds had statistically significant positive coefficients. Conclusions: In this work, we can detect that in the era of quantitative easing, although the financial market in Poland made an incredible progress, the fund returns were

  12. PENSION FUND

    CERN Multimedia

    1999-01-01

    The Governing Board of the Pension Fund held its first three meetings of the year on 2 February, 2 March and 13 April.At the first of these meetings the Board first heard a presentation by Mrs H. Richmond of JP Morgan on the results of the currency overlay programme applied to the Fund's assets. Thanks to the policy pursued by this company, volatility, i.e. portfolio risk for assets denominated in currencies other than the Swiss franc, has been reduced. However, despite the fact that JP Morgan has considerable expertise in this field, no gain has been achieved over the past year. The Governing Board heard a report by the Investment Committee Chairman G. Maurin on the meetings of 21-22 and 28 January at which the Pension Fund's various fund managers had been interviewed on their results. Decisions were taken on benchmarks aimed at optimising management and on the terms of reference of the Internal Management Unit. It was also decided to place two fund managers on a watching list and to request them to make eve...

  13. Pension Fund

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2008-01-01

    The PFGB held two meetings over the summer, the first on 9 June and the second on 1st September. The agendas of the two meetings had several items in common, including progress reports on the work of the four working groups. Group 1, which is responsible for the revision of Chapter I, Section 2 of the Rules of the Fund, has made good progress but will need more time to complete its terms of reference in view of the number and complexity of the articles to be amended. In parallel, the Group has approved a code of conduct for the Pension Fund, which is based, in particular, on the new charter introduced for Swiss pension funds by the Swiss Association of Provident Institutions (ASIP) and the CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) code of ethics applicable to members of pension fund bodies. The PFGB took note that the Group had also been working on the rules relating to the status of the personnel of the Fund and the composition of the Investment Committee. The work of Group 2, resp...

  14. Pension Fund

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    All members and beneficiaries of the Pension Fund are invited to attend the Annual General Asssembly to be held in the CERN Auditorium on Wednesday 8 October 2003 at 14.30 hrs The Agenda comprises: 1. Opening RemarksJ. Bezemer 2. Annual Report 2002: Presentation and results Copies of the Report are available from divisional secretariats. C. Cuénoud 3. Overview of the present situation with regard to pension funds C. Cuénoud 4. Performance of the Fund since the year 2000 and aspects of the ongoing asset/liability modelling exercise G. Maurin 5. Questions from members and beneficiariesPersons wishing to ask questions are encouraged to submit them, where possible, in writing in advance, addressed to Mr C. Cuénoud, Administrator of the Fund. 6. Conclusions J. Bezemer As usual, participants are invited to drinks after the assembly. NB The minutes of the 2002 General Assembly are available from the Administration of the Fund tel.(+4122)767 27 42; e-mail Sophia.Revol@cern.ch)

  15. Thinking out of the box : a green and social climate fund comment on "Politics, Power, Poverty and Global Health: Systems and Frames"

    OpenAIRE

    Ooms, Gorik; van de Pas, Remco; Decoster, Kristof; Hammonds, Rachel

    2017-01-01

    Abstract: Solomon Benatar's paper "Politics, Power, Poverty and Global Health: Systems and Frames" examines the inequitable state of global health challenging readers to extend the discourse on global health beyond conventional boundaries by addressing the interconnectedness of planetary life. Our response explores existing models of international cooperation, assessing how modifying them may achieve the twin goals of ensuring healthy people and planet. First, we address why the inequality re...

  16. Using Scaling to Understand, Model and Predict Global Scale Anthropogenic and Natural Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.

    2014-12-01

    The atmosphere is variable over twenty orders of magnitude in time (≈10-3 to 1017 s) and almost all of the variance is in the spectral "background" which we show can be divided into five scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate, macroclimate and megaclimate. We illustrate this with instrumental and paleo data. Based the signs of the fluctuation exponent H, we argue that while the weather is "what you get" (H>0: fluctuations increasing with scale), that it is macroweather (Hdecreasing with scale) - not climate - "that you expect". The conventional framework that treats the background as close to white noise and focuses on quasi-periodic variability assumes a spectrum that is in error by a factor of a quadrillion (≈ 1015). Using this scaling framework, we can quantify the natural variability, distinguish it from anthropogenic variability, test various statistical hypotheses and make stochastic climate forecasts. For example, we estimate the probability that the warming is simply a giant century long natural fluctuation is less than 1%, most likely less than 0.1% and estimate return periods for natural warming events of different strengths and durations, including the slow down ("pause") in the warming since 1998. The return period for the pause was found to be 20-50 years i.e. not very unusual; however it immediately follows a 6 year "pre-pause" warming event of almost the same magnitude with a similar return period (30 - 40 years). To improve on these unconditional estimates, we can use scaling models to exploit the long range memory of the climate process to make accurate stochastic forecasts of the climate including the pause. We illustrate stochastic forecasts on monthly and annual scale series of global and northern hemisphere surface temperatures. We obtain forecast skill nearly as high as the theoretical (scaling) predictability limits allow: for example, using hindcasts we find that at 10 year forecast horizons we can still explain ≈ 15% of the

  17. Measuring and prediction of global solar ultraviolet radiation (0295-0385 μ m) under clear and cloudless skies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, Jaime

    2008-01-01

    Values of global solar ultraviolet radiation were measured with an ultraviolet radiometer and also predicted with a atmospheric spectral model. The values obtained with the atmospheric spectral model, based physically, were analyzed and compared with experimental values measured in situ. Measurements were performed for different zenith angles in conditions of clear skies in Heredia, Costa Rica. The necessary input data include latitude, altitude, surface albedo, Earth-Sun distance, as well as atmospheric characteristics: atmospheric turbidity, precipitable water and atmospheric ozone. The comparison between measured and predicted values have been successful. (author) [es

  18. Using isotopes to improve impact and hydrological predictions of land-surface schemes in global climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGuffie, K.; Henderson-Sellers, A.

    2002-01-01

    Global climate model (GCM) predictions of the impact of large-scale land-use change date back to 1984 as do the earliest isotopic studies of large-basin hydrology. Despite this coincidence in interest and geography, with both papers focussed on the Amazon, there have been few studies that have tried to exploit isotopic information with the goal of improving climate model simulations of the land-surface. In this paper we analyze isotopic results from the IAEA global data base specifically with the goal of identifying signatures of potential value for improving global and regional climate model simulations of the land-surface. Evaluation of climate model predictions of the impacts of deforestation of the Amazon has been shown to be of significance by recent results which indicate impacts occurring distant from the Amazon i.e. tele-connections causing climate change elsewhere around the globe. It is suggested that these could be similar in magnitude and extent to the global impacts of ENSO events. Validation of GCM predictions associated with Amazonian deforestation are increasingly urgently required because of the additional effects of other aspects of climate change, particularly synergies occurring between forest removal and greenhouse gas increases, especially CO 2 . Here we examine three decades distributions of deuterium excess across the Amazon and use the results to evaluate the relative importance of the fractionating (partial evaporation) and non-fractionating (transpiration) processes. These results illuminate GCM scenarios of importance to the regional climate and hydrology: (i) the possible impact of increased stomatal resistance in the rainforest caused by higher levels of atmospheric CO2 [4]; and (ii) the consequences of the combined effects of deforestation and global warming on the regions climate and hydrology

  19. Pension Fund

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    Amendment No 19 to the Rules and Regulations of the Pension Fund has just been published and can be obtained from Divisional secretariats or, in the case of pensioners, directly from the Administration of the Fund (tel. 767-91 94/27 38), bldg 5, 1-030. This Amendment, which entered into force on 1.1.2003, concerns 1) the fixed sums and allowances adjusted at same date (Annex B) and 2) the articles which have been amended, in accordance with the Finance Committee's decision, regarding voting rules of the Governing Board and the role and composition of the Investment Committee.

  20. Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment (GTH) is an outlook product for the areas in the Tropics. Forecasts for the Week-1 and Week-2 period are given for...

  1. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Monthly Leaky Bucket Soil Moisture Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly global soil moisture, runoff, and evaporation data sets produced by the Leaky Bucket model at 0.5? ? 0.5? resolution for the period from 1948 to the present....

  2. PENSION FUND

    CERN Multimedia

    2002-01-01

    The Governing Board of the Pension Fund held its 104th and 105th meetings on 8th November and 4th December 2001, respectively. The agenda of the 8th November meeting was devoted to a single item, namely the outcome of the Finance Committee's meeting the previous day. The Governing Board noted with satisfaction that both its proposed amendments to the Rules and Regulations of the Fund - allowing, in particular, the award of a deferred retirement pension after five years of service - and its proposal for the adjustment of pensions on 1.1.2002 had been approved for recommendation to the Council in December. At its meeting on 4th December, the Governing Board dealt mainly with the items examined at the latest meeting of the Investment Committee. The Committee's chairman, G. Maurin, stated that the 2001 return on the Fund's overall investments was likely to be between -2% and -3%. He also noted that a new study of the Fund's cash flows (incomings and outgoings) had been performed. He underlined that, while the flo...

  3. Pension Fund

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    Following the approval by the CERN Council, at its Session in March 2006, of the amendments to Administrative Circular No. 14 (Protection of the members of the personnel against the financial consequences of illness, accident and disability) and the resulting amendments to the Rules and Regulations of the Pension Fund, which entered into force on 1st July 2006, the Administration of the Fund has decided to publish a complete new edition of the Rules and Regulations incorporating all amendments up to 1st July 2006. Members of the Fund will be informed once the new edition of the Rules and Regulations is available from Departmental secretariats.In the meantime, the amendments to the text of the Pension Fund Rules and Regulations, which entered into force on 1st July 2006, are presented below (Previous text/Amended text): Chapter II - Section 1: Contributions and benefits Article II 1.04 - Reference Salary - Part-time Work OLD TEXT: The reference salary of a member with a contract for part-time work shall b...

  4. Pension Fund

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    Following the approval by the CERN Council, at its Session in March 2006, of the amendments to Administrative Circular No. 14 (Protection of the members of the personnel against the financial consequences of illness, accident and disability) and the resulting amendments to the Rules and Regulations of the Pension Fund, which entered into force on 1st July 2006, the Administration of the Fund has decided to publish a complete new edition of the Rules and Regulations incorporating all amendments up to 1st July 2006. Members of the Fund will be informed once the new edition of the Rules and Regulations is available from Departmental secretariats. In the meantime, the amendments to the text of the Pension Fund Rules and Regulations, which entered into force on 1st July 2006, are presented below (Previous text/Amended text) : Chapter II - Section 1: Contributions and benefits Article II 1.04 - Reference Salary - Part-time Work OLD TEXT: the reference salary of a member with a contract for part-time work shall be e...

  5. Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Preliminary Results with Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis (2008)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, B.; Tao, W.; Atlas, R.

    2008-12-01

    Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis, the deadliest named tropical cyclone (TC) in the North Indian Ocean Basin, devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, causing tremendous damage and numerous fatalities. An increased lead time in the prediction of TC Nargis would have increased the warning time and may therefore have saved lives and reduced economic damage. Recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputers have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, presumably by improving multi-scale simulations. The key but challenging questions to be answered include: (1) if and how realistic, in terms of timing, location and TC general structure, the global mesoscale model (GMM) can simulate TC genesis and (2) under what conditions can the model extend the lead time of TC genesis forecasts. In this study, we focus on genesis prediction for TCs in the Indian Ocean with the GMM. Preliminary real-data simulations show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted at a lead time of up to 5 days. These simulations also suggest that the accurate representations of a westerly wind burst (WWB) and an equatorial trough, associated with monsoon circulations and/or a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), are important for predicting the formation of this kind of TC. In addition to the WWB and equatorial trough, other favorable environmental conditions will be examined, which include enhanced monsoonal circulation, upper-level outflow, low- and middle-level moistening, and surface fluxes.

  6. Musite, a tool for global prediction of general and kinase-specific phosphorylation sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Jianjiong; Thelen, Jay J; Dunker, A Keith; Xu, Dong

    2010-12-01

    Reversible protein phosphorylation is one of the most pervasive post-translational modifications, regulating diverse cellular processes in various organisms. High throughput experimental studies using mass spectrometry have identified many phosphorylation sites, primarily from eukaryotes. However, the vast majority of phosphorylation sites remain undiscovered, even in well studied systems. Because mass spectrometry-based experimental approaches for identifying phosphorylation events are costly, time-consuming, and biased toward abundant proteins and proteotypic peptides, in silico prediction of phosphorylation sites is potentially a useful alternative strategy for whole proteome annotation. Because of various limitations, current phosphorylation site prediction tools were not well designed for comprehensive assessment of proteomes. Here, we present a novel software tool, Musite, specifically designed for large scale predictions of both general and kinase-specific phosphorylation sites. We collected phosphoproteomics data in multiple organisms from several reliable sources and used them to train prediction models by a comprehensive machine-learning approach that integrates local sequence similarities to known phosphorylation sites, protein disorder scores, and amino acid frequencies. Application of Musite on several proteomes yielded tens of thousands of phosphorylation site predictions at a high stringency level. Cross-validation tests show that Musite achieves some improvement over existing tools in predicting general phosphorylation sites, and it is at least comparable with those for predicting kinase-specific phosphorylation sites. In Musite V1.0, we have trained general prediction models for six organisms and kinase-specific prediction models for 13 kinases or kinase families. Although the current pretrained models were not correlated with any particular cellular conditions, Musite provides a unique functionality for training customized prediction models

  7. Global proteomics profiling improves drug sensitivity prediction: results from a multi-omics, pan-cancer modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Mehreen; Khan, Suleiman A; Wennerberg, Krister; Aittokallio, Tero

    2018-04-15

    Proteomics profiling is increasingly being used for molecular stratification of cancer patients and cell-line panels. However, systematic assessment of the predictive power of large-scale proteomic technologies across various drug classes and cancer types is currently lacking. To that end, we carried out the first pan-cancer, multi-omics comparative analysis of the relative performance of two proteomic technologies, targeted reverse phase protein array (RPPA) and global mass spectrometry (MS), in terms of their accuracy for predicting the sensitivity of cancer cells to both cytotoxic chemotherapeutics and molecularly targeted anticancer compounds. Our results in two cell-line panels demonstrate how MS profiling improves drug response predictions beyond that of the RPPA or the other omics profiles when used alone. However, frequent missing MS data values complicate its use in predictive modeling and required additional filtering, such as focusing on completely measured or known oncoproteins, to obtain maximal predictive performance. Rather strikingly, the two proteomics profiles provided complementary predictive signal both for the cytotoxic and targeted compounds. Further, information about the cellular-abundance of primary target proteins was found critical for predicting the response of targeted compounds, although the non-target features also contributed significantly to the predictive power. The clinical relevance of the selected protein markers was confirmed in cancer patient data. These results provide novel insights into the relative performance and optimal use of the widely applied proteomic technologies, MS and RPPA, which should prove useful in translational applications, such as defining the best combination of omics technologies and marker panels for understanding and predicting drug sensitivities in cancer patients. Processed datasets, R as well as Matlab implementations of the methods are available at https://github.com/mehr-een/bemkl-rbps. mehreen

  8. Global life satisfaction predicts ambulatory affect, stress, and cortisol in daily life in working adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Joshua M; Zawadzki, Matthew J; Juth, Vanessa; Sciamanna, Christopher N

    2017-04-01

    Global life satisfaction has been linked with long-term health advantages, yet how life satisfaction impacts the trajectory of long-term health is unclear. This paper examines one such possible mechanism-that greater life satisfaction confers momentary benefits in daily life that accumulate over time. A community sample of working adults (n = 115) completed a measure of life satisfaction and then three subsequent days of ecological momentary assessment surveys (6 times/day) measuring affect (i.e., emotional valence, arousal), and perceived stress, and also provided salivary cortisol samples. Multilevel models indicated that people with higher (vs. lower) levels of life satisfaction reported better momentary affect, less stress, marginally lower momentary levels and significantly altered diurnal slopes of cortisol. Findings suggest individuals with high global life satisfaction have advantageous daily experiences, providing initial evidence for potential mechanisms through which global life satisfaction may help explain long-term health benefits.

  9. Evaluation of Applicability of Global Solar Radiation Prediction Models for Kocaeli

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurullah ARSLANOĞLU

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Design and analyses of solar energy systems needs value of global solar radiation falling on the surface of the earth. In this study,  thirty relative sunshine duration based regression models in the literature for determining the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for Kocaeli were investigated. To indicate the performance of the models, the following statistical test methods are used: mean absolute bias error (MABE, mean bias error (MBE, mean absolute percent error (MAPE, mean percent error (MPE, root mean square error (RMSE. According to the statistical performance, Lewis model (Model 23, Model-18 (Jin et al. and Model 8 (Bahel et al. showed the best estimation of the global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for Kocaeli.

  10. Computer-aided global breast MR image feature analysis for prediction of tumor response to chemotherapy: performance assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aghaei, Faranak; Tan, Maxine; Hollingsworth, Alan B.; Zheng, Bin; Cheng, Samuel

    2016-03-01

    Dynamic contrast-enhanced breast magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) has been used increasingly in breast cancer diagnosis and assessment of cancer treatment efficacy. In this study, we applied a computer-aided detection (CAD) scheme to automatically segment breast regions depicting on MR images and used the kinetic image features computed from the global breast MR images acquired before neoadjuvant chemotherapy to build a new quantitative model to predict response of the breast cancer patients to the chemotherapy. To assess performance and robustness of this new prediction model, an image dataset involving breast MR images acquired from 151 cancer patients before undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy was retrospectively assembled and used. Among them, 63 patients had "complete response" (CR) to chemotherapy in which the enhanced contrast levels inside the tumor volume (pre-treatment) was reduced to the level as the normal enhanced background parenchymal tissues (post-treatment), while 88 patients had "partially response" (PR) in which the high contrast enhancement remain in the tumor regions after treatment. We performed the studies to analyze the correlation among the 22 global kinetic image features and then select a set of 4 optimal features. Applying an artificial neural network trained with the fusion of these 4 kinetic image features, the prediction model yielded an area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.83+/-0.04. This study demonstrated that by avoiding tumor segmentation, which is often difficult and unreliable, fusion of kinetic image features computed from global breast MR images without tumor segmentation can also generate a useful clinical marker in predicting efficacy of chemotherapy.

  11. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.

    1997-01-01

    the arrival of the first earthquake from non-destructive vibration tests or via structural analysis. The previous excitation and displacement response time series is employed for the identification of the instantaneous softening using an ARMA model. The hysteresis parameters are updated after each earthquake....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  12. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.

    1994-01-01

    the arrival of the first earthquake from non-destructive vibration tests or via structural analysis. The previous excitation and displacement response time series is employed for the identification of the instantaneous softening using an ARMA model. The hysteresis parameters are updated after each earthquake....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  13. Global atmospheric emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from 1960 to 2008 and future predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Shen, Huizhong; Huang, Ye; Wang, Rong; Zhu, Dan; Li, Wei; Shen, Guofeng; Wang, Bin; Zhang, Yanyan; Chen, Yuanchen; Lu, Yan; Chen, Han; Li, Tongchao; Sun, Kang; Li, Bengang; Liu, Wenxin

    2013-01-01

    Global atmospheric emissions of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from 69 major sources were estimated for a period from 1960 to 2030. Regression models and a technology split method were used to estimate country and time specific emission factors, resulting in a new estimate of PAH emission factor variation among different countries and over time. PAH emissions in 2007 were spatially resolved to 0.1°× 0.1° grids based on a newly developed global high-resolution fuel combustion inven...

  14. PENSION FUND

    CERN Multimedia

    2002-01-01

    Amendment No 18 to the Rules and Regulations of the Pension Fund has just been published and can be obtained from Divisional secretariats or, in the case of pensioners, directly from the Administration of the Fund (tel. 767-91 94/27 38), bldg 5, 1-030. This Amendment, which entered into force on 1.1.2002, concerns the articles which have been amended, in accordance with the Council's decision, to allow the award of a deferred retirement pension after five years of service (instead of ten previously) and the fixed sums and allowances adjusted at the same date (Annex B). It also contains a revised version of the table of contents of the Rules, as well as pages where the contents have not changed but where the page layout has had to be adjusted for technical reasons.

  15. Pension Fund

    CERN Multimedia

    Pension Fund

    2006-01-01

    Amendment No. 22 to the Rules and Regulations of the Pension Fund has just been published and can be obtained from Department/Unit secretariats or, in the case of pensioners, directly from the Administration of the Fund (tel. 767-91 94/27 38), bldg 5, 1-030. This Amendment, which entered into force following the CERN Council's decisions of 16 December 2005, includes the following new articles: Art. II 5.08 : Non-entitlement to Pension for Surviving Spouse Art. II 5.09 : Procurement of an entitlement to Pension for Surviving Spouse Art. II 6.09 : Non-entitlement to Pension for Orphans Art. II 7.01 c) : Entitlement to Allowances Art. III 1.07 : Extension of the contract beyond the age limit of 65 as well as the following amended articles : Article II 1.07 - Contributions Annex B - Fixed sums and allowances

  16. PENSION FUND

    CERN Multimedia

    Administration of the Fund

    2001-01-01

    The Administration of the Fund has just signed a contract with the 'La Suisse' insurance company, making life insurance available to persons leaving CERN under very similar conditions to those offered to the members of the CERN personnel. From now on, persons retiring from the Organization will be able to take out this new insurance at the moment of retirement, provided that they have been members of CERN's collective life insurance scheme for the last five years of service. Exceptionally, until the end of 2001, 'La Suisse' has agreed to allow persons who are already retired to take out this insurance, subject to their state of health (health questionnaire to be completed) and with a maximum insured amount set at 150,000 CHF. We therefore invite any retired persons interested in this insurance to consult the detailed terms and conditions, either on the Pension Fund's Web site (http://pensions.web.cern.ch/pensions) or by writing to the Administration of the Fund. For those wishing to apply, the documents to be...

  17. Pension Fund

    CERN Multimedia

    2004-01-01

    The Governing Board of the Pension Fund held its one-hundred-and-twenty-second meeting on 3 February 2004. Opening the meeting, the Chairman, J. Bezemer, welcomed W. Zapf's alternate T. Lagrange, A. Naudi's alternate P. Geeraert, and M. Goossens' alternate M. Vitasse, who were attending the Governing Board for the first time. The Governing Board heard a report from its Chairman on the meeting of the CERN Council on 19 December 2003, at which, under Pension Fund matters, the Council had approved a pensions adjustment of 0.7%. The Governing Board then heard a report on the main elements of the Investment Committee's meeting on 3 December 2003. During a presentation, Expert Timing System (Madrid) and the Compagnie de Trésorerie Benjamin de Rothschild (Geneva) had proposed a bond portfolio investment following the same quantitative investment principles as the equities portfolio they already managed for the Fund. After some deliberation, the Investment Committee had decided, on that basis, to award t...

  18. Pension Fund

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    The Governing Board of the Pension Fund held its hundred and seventeenth meeting on 3 June 2003. On that occasion, it examined the recommendations made by the External Auditors in their report on their audit of the 2002 annual accounts and the replies by the Pension Fund's Administration. The Governing Board was gratified by the small number of remarks by the External Auditors. It also confirmed its agreement to the procedure followed by the Administration of the Pension Fund in the handling of transfer values. Under other items on the agenda, the Board once again examined ESO's request relating to the terms and conditions of membership by its staff members. In this regard, the Board wishes to receive from ESO a definitive request (following the necessary consultation procedures with the representatives of the personnel and discussions within ESO's governing bodies) so that the working group can continue its work on a clear basis and so that the Governing Board is in a position to take up a position in the m...

  19. On the comparison between seasonal predictive skill of global circulation models: Coupled versus uncoupled

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Beraki, AF

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The study compares one- and two-tiered forecasting systems as represented by the South African Weather Service Coupled Model and its atmosphere-only version. In this comparative framework, the main difference between these global climate models...

  20. Preparing the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) for global retrospective air quality modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US EPA has a plan to leverage recent advances in meteorological modeling to develop a "Next-Generation" air quality modeling system that will allow consistent modeling of problems from global to local scale. The meteorological model of choice is the Model for Predic...

  1. Predicting changes in alluvial channel patterns in North-European Russia under conditions of global warming.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anisimov, O.; Vandenberghe, J.; Lobanov, V.; Kondratiev, A.

    2008-01-01

    Global climate change may have a noticeable impact on the northern environment, leading to changes in permafrost, vegetation and fluvial morphology. In this paper we compare the results from three geomorphological models and study the potential effects of changing climatic factors on the river

  2. The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    L.N. Hudson; T. Newbold; S. Contu

    2014-01-01

    Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that...

  3. The funding landscape for HIV in Asia and the Pacific

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stuart, Robyn Margaret; Lief, Eric; Donald, Braedon

    2015-01-01

    -Pacific region between 2004 and 2013, we obtained funding data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Creditor Reporting System database. Where possible, we checked these amounts against the funding data available from government aid agencies. Estimates of multilateral ODA financing...... for HIV/AIDS were based on the country allocations announcement by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (the Global Fund) for the period 2014 to 2016. RESULTS: Countries in the Asia-Pacific region receive the largest share of aid for HIV from the Global Fund. Bilateral funding for HIV......, but the United States is the bilateral donor providing the greatest amount of assistance in the region. Funding from the Global Fund has increased consistently since 2005, reaching a total of US$1.2 billion for the Asia-Pacific region from 2014 to 2016. CONCLUSIONS: Even with Global Fund allocations, countries...

  4. EP-DNN: A Deep Neural Network-Based Global Enhancer Prediction Algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seong Gon; Harwani, Mrudul; Grama, Ananth; Chaterji, Somali

    2016-12-08

    We present EP-DNN, a protocol for predicting enhancers based on chromatin features, in different cell types. Specifically, we use a deep neural network (DNN)-based architecture to extract enhancer signatures in a representative human embryonic stem cell type (H1) and a differentiated lung cell type (IMR90). We train EP-DNN using p300 binding sites, as enhancers, and TSS and random non-DHS sites, as non-enhancers. We perform same-cell and cross-cell predictions to quantify the validation rate and compare against two state-of-the-art methods, DEEP-ENCODE and RFECS. We find that EP-DNN has superior accuracy with a validation rate of 91.6%, relative to 85.3% for DEEP-ENCODE and 85.5% for RFECS, for a given number of enhancer predictions and also scales better for a larger number of enhancer predictions. Moreover, our H1 → IMR90 predictions turn out to be more accurate than IMR90 → IMR90, potentially because H1 exhibits a richer signature set and our EP-DNN model is expressive enough to extract these subtleties. Our work shows how to leverage the full expressivity of deep learning models, using multiple hidden layers, while avoiding overfitting on the training data. We also lay the foundation for exploration of cross-cell enhancer predictions, potentially reducing the need for expensive experimentation.

  5. EP-DNN: A Deep Neural Network-Based Global Enhancer Prediction Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seong Gon; Harwani, Mrudul; Grama, Ananth; Chaterji, Somali

    2016-12-01

    We present EP-DNN, a protocol for predicting enhancers based on chromatin features, in different cell types. Specifically, we use a deep neural network (DNN)-based architecture to extract enhancer signatures in a representative human embryonic stem cell type (H1) and a differentiated lung cell type (IMR90). We train EP-DNN using p300 binding sites, as enhancers, and TSS and random non-DHS sites, as non-enhancers. We perform same-cell and cross-cell predictions to quantify the validation rate and compare against two state-of-the-art methods, DEEP-ENCODE and RFECS. We find that EP-DNN has superior accuracy with a validation rate of 91.6%, relative to 85.3% for DEEP-ENCODE and 85.5% for RFECS, for a given number of enhancer predictions and also scales better for a larger number of enhancer predictions. Moreover, our H1 → IMR90 predictions turn out to be more accurate than IMR90 → IMR90, potentially because H1 exhibits a richer signature set and our EP-DNN model is expressive enough to extract these subtleties. Our work shows how to leverage the full expressivity of deep learning models, using multiple hidden layers, while avoiding overfitting on the training data. We also lay the foundation for exploration of cross-cell enhancer predictions, potentially reducing the need for expensive experimentation.

  6. Getting used to academic public speaking: global self-esteem predicts habituation in blood pressure response to repeated thesis presentations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elfering, Achim; Grebner, Simone

    2012-06-01

    Global self-esteem was tested to predict quicker cardiovascular adaptation during stressful oral thesis presentation and faster habituation from the first to the second and third thesis presentations. Nineteen graduate students initially rated their global self-esteem and afterwards orally presented their theses proposals in 20-min presentations to their thesis supervisor and peers. A second and third presentation of the revised thesis concepts took place at 4-weeks intervals. Ambulatory blood pressure and heart rate were assessed repeatedly during the presentations. Post-talk self ratings of stressfulness indicated presentations to be a strong public speaking stressor. One hundred and thirty-eight measurements of systolic (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and heart rate (HR) showed a significant adaptation (decrease) during presentations. There was an overall mean level decrease from the first to the second, and the second to the third presentations in HR, but not in SBP and DBP. However, habituation in SBP and DBP across three presentations was significantly faster (p < .05) in those participants who initially reported higher levels of global self-esteem. Higher global self-esteem did not foster adaptation within the presentations. Self-esteem is discussed as an important individual resource that allows successful coping with recurring evaluative threats.

  7. Characterizing the utility of the TMPA real-time product for hydrologic predictions over global river basins across scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, H.; Zhang, S.; Nijssen, B.; Zhou, T.; Voisin, N.; Sheffield, J.; Lee, K.; Shukla, S.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2017-12-01

    Despite its errors and uncertainties, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis real-time product (TMPA-RT) has been widely used for hydrological monitoring and forecasting due to its timely availability for real-time applications. To evaluate the utility of TMPA-RT in hydrologic predictions, many studies have compared modeled streamflows driven by TMPA-RT against gauge data. However, because of the limited availability of streamflow observations in data sparse regions, there is still a lack of comprehensive comparisons for TMPA-RT based hydrologic predictions at the global scale. Furthermore, it is expected that its skill is less optimal at the subbasin scale than the basin scale. In this study, we evaluate and characterize the utility of the TMPA-RT product over selected global river basins during the period of 1998 to 2015 using the TMPA research product (TMPA-RP) as a reference. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which was calibrated and validated previously, is adopted to simulate streamflows driven by TMPA-RT and TMPA-RP, respectively. The objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of the hydrologic predictions by answering the following questions: (1) How do the precipitation errors associated with the TMPA-RT product transform into streamflow errors with respect to geographical and climatological characteristics? (2) How do streamflow errors vary across scales within a basin?

  8. Cigarette makers pioneered many of our black arts of disinformation, including the funding of research to distract from the hazards of smoking. Ten Nobel prizes were the result. By funding distraction research, the cigarette industry became an important source of academic corruption, helping also to forge other forms of denialism on a global scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proctor, R. N.

    2014-12-01

    Cigarette Disinformation: Origins and Global Impact Robert N. Proctor The cigarette is the deadliest artifact in the history of human civilization. And whereas "only" a hundred million people died in the 20th century from smoking, we are presently on a pace to have several times that toll in the present century. Much of that catastrophe would not be possible without a massive campaign of disinformation. The cigarette industry pioneered many of the black arts of disinformation, cleverly exploiting the inherent skepticism of science to claim that "more research" was needed to resolve a purported "cigarette controversy." Cigarette makers funded hundreds of millions of dollars worth of "distraction research," most of which was solid empirical science but off topic, focusing on basic biology and biochemistry, viral and genetic causes of disease, and other "cigarette friendly" topics. At least ten Nobel prizes were the result. Cigarette skepticism was thus more complex than we normally imagine: the tobacco industry corrupted science by funding "alternative causation," meaning anything that could be used to draw attention away from cigarettes as a source of disease. The cigarette industry by this means became the most important source of academic corruption since the Nazi era. That corruption has also helped forge other forms of denialism and corruption on a global scale.

  9. Prediction of Global Solar Radiation in India Using Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajiv Gupta

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Increasing global warming and decreasing fossil fuel reserves has necessitated the use of renewable energy resources like solar energy in India. To maximize return on a solar farm, it had to be set up at a place with high solar radiation. The solar radiation values are available only for a small number of places and must be interpolated for the rest. This paper utilizes Artificial Neural Network in interpolation, by obtaining a function with input as combinations of 7 geographical and meteorological parameters affecting radiation, and output as global solar radiation. Data considered was of past 9 years for 13 Indian cities. Low error values and high coefficient of determination values thus obtained, verified that the results were accurate in terms of the original solar radiation data known. Thus, artificial neural network can be used to interpolate the solar radiation for the places of interest depending on the availability of the data.

  10. Modeling long period swell in Southern California: Practical boundary conditions from buoy observations and global wave model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosby, S. C.; O'Reilly, W. C.; Guza, R. T.

    2016-02-01

    Accurate, unbiased, high-resolution (in space and time) nearshore wave predictions are needed to drive models of beach erosion, coastal flooding, and alongshore transport of sediment, biota and pollutants. On highly sheltered shorelines, wave predictions are sensitive to the directions of onshore propagating waves, and nearshore model prediction error is often dominated by uncertainty in offshore boundary conditions. Offshore islands and shoals, and coastline curvature, create complex sheltering patterns over the 250km span of southern California (SC) shoreline. Here, regional wave model skill in SC was compared for different offshore boundary conditions created using offshore buoy observations and global wave model hindcasts (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Wave Watch 3, WW3). Spectral ray-tracing methods were used to transform incident offshore swell (0.04-0.09Hz) energy at high directional resolution (1-deg). Model skill is assessed for predictions (wave height, direction, and alongshore radiation stress) at 16 nearshore buoy sites between 2000 and 2009. Model skill using buoy-derived boundary conditions is higher than with WW3-derived boundary conditions. Buoy-driven nearshore model results are similar with various assumptions about the true offshore directional distribution (maximum entropy, Bayesian direct, and 2nd derivative smoothness). Two methods combining offshore buoy observations with WW3 predictions in the offshore boundary condition did not improve nearshore skill above buoy-only methods. A case example at Oceanside harbor shows strong sensitivity of alongshore sediment transport predictions to different offshore boundary conditions. Despite this uncertainty in alongshore transport magnitude, alongshore gradients in transport (e.g. the location of model accretion and erosion zones) are determined by the local bathymetry, and are similar for all predictions.

  11. Insights into the diurnal cycle of global Earth outgoing radiation using a numerical weather prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gristey, Jake J.; Chiu, J. Christine; Gurney, Robert J.; Morcrette, Cyril J.; Hill, Peter G.; Russell, Jacqueline E.; Brindley, Helen E.

    2018-04-01

    A globally complete, high temporal resolution and multiple-variable approach is employed to analyse the diurnal cycle of Earth's outgoing energy flows. This is made possible via the use of Met Office model output for September 2010 that is assessed alongside regional satellite observations throughout. Principal component analysis applied to the long-wave component of modelled outgoing radiation reveals dominant diurnal patterns related to land surface heating and convective cloud development, respectively explaining 68.5 and 16.0 % of the variance at the global scale. The total variance explained by these first two patterns is markedly less than previous regional estimates from observations, and this analysis suggests that around half of the difference relates to the lack of global coverage in the observations. The first pattern is strongly and simultaneously coupled to the land surface temperature diurnal variations. The second pattern is strongly coupled to the cloud water content and height diurnal variations, but lags the cloud variations by several hours. We suggest that the mechanism controlling the delay is a moistening of the upper troposphere due to the evaporation of anvil cloud. The short-wave component of modelled outgoing radiation, analysed in terms of albedo, exhibits a very dominant pattern explaining 88.4 % of the variance that is related to the angle of incoming solar radiation, and a second pattern explaining 6.7 % of the variance that is related to compensating effects from convective cloud development and marine stratocumulus cloud dissipation. Similar patterns are found in regional satellite observations, but with slightly different timings due to known model biases. The first pattern is controlled by changes in surface and cloud albedo, and Rayleigh and aerosol scattering. The second pattern is strongly coupled to the diurnal variations in both cloud water content and height in convective regions but only cloud water content in marine

  12. Global parameterization and validation of a two-leaf light use efficiency model for predicting gross primary production across FLUXNET sites

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Zhou, Y.; Wu, X.; Weiming, J.; Chen, J.; Wang, S.; Wang, H.; Wenping, Y.; Black, T. A.; Jassal, R.; Ibrom, A.; Han, S.; Yan, J.; Margolis, H.; Roupsard, O.; Li, Y.; Zhao, F.; Kiely, G.; Starr, G.; Pavelka, Marian; Montagnani, L.; Wohlfahrt, G.; D'Odorico, P.; Cook, D.; Altaf Arain, M.; Bonal, D.; Beringer, J.; Blanken, P. D.; Loubet, B.; Leclerc, M. Y.; Matteucci, G.; Nagy, Z.; Olejnik, Janusz; U., K. T. P.; Varlagin, A.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 36, č. 7 (2016), s. 2743-2760 ISSN 2169-8953 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : global parametrization * predicting model * FlUXNET Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.395, year: 2016

  13. Performance of the FV3-powered Next Generation Global Prediction System for Harvey and Irma, and a vision for a "beyond weather timescale" prediction system for long-range hurricane track and intensity predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, S. J.; Bender, M.; Harris, L.; Hazelton, A.

    2017-12-01

    The performance of a GFDL developed FV3-based Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) for Harvey and Irma will be reported. We will report on aspects of track and intensity errors (vs operational models), heavy precipitation (Harvey), rapid intensification, and simulated structure (in comparison with ground based radar), and point to a need of a future long-range (from day-5 up to 30 days) physically based ensemble hurricane prediction system for providing useful information to the forecasters, beyond the usual weather timescale.

  14. Prediction of renal mass aggressiveness using clinical and radiographic features: a global, multicentre prospective study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Golan, Shay; Eggener, Scott; Subotic, Svetozar; Barret, Eric; Cormio, Luigi; Naito, Seiji; Tefekli, Ahmet; Pilar Laguna Pes, M.

    2016-01-01

    To examine the ability of preoperative clinical characteristics to predict histological features of renal masses (RMs). Data from consecutive patients with clinical stage I RMs treated surgically between 2010 and 2011 in the Clinical Research Office of Endourology Society (CROES) Renal Mass Registry

  15. Forest processes and global environmental change: predicting the effects of individual and multiple stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    John Aber; Ronald P. Neilson; Steve McNulty; James M. Lenihan; Dominque Bachelet; Raymond J. Drapek

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to review the state of prediction of forest ecosystem response to envisioned changes in the physical and chemical climate. These results are offered as one part of the forest sector analysis of the National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. This article has three sections. The first offers a very...

  16. PENSION FUND

    CERN Multimedia

    Administration of the Fund

    2001-01-01

    The Administration of the Fund has just signed a contract with the 'La Suisse' insurance company, making life insurance available to persons leaving CERN under very similar conditions to those offered to the members of the CERN personnel. From now on, persons retiring from the Organization will be able to take out this new insurance at the moment of retirement, provided that they have been members of CERN's collective life insurance scheme for the last five years of service. Exceptionally, until the end of 2001, 'La Suisse' has agreed to allow persons who are already retired to take out this insurance, provided that they are less than 70 years old and subject to their state of health (health questionnaire to be completed) and with a maximum insured amount set at 150,000 CHF. We therefore invite any retired persons interested in this insurance to consult the detailed terms and conditions, either on the Pension Fund's Web site (http://pensions.web.cern.ch/pensions) or contacting to the Administration of the Fun...

  17. Investment Fund Governance: An empirical investigation of Luxembourg UCITS

    OpenAIRE

    Hazenberg, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Investment funds potentially suffer from the conflict of interest between investors and fund management companies. Fund boards could help mitigate this conflict. In Luxembourg, the second largest fund domicile globally, fund boards are not required to have independent board members. Nevertheless, many firms have independent board members on their fund boards. The research question investigated is whether or not boards with (more) independent board members are more effective for investors,...

  18. Global gradients in vertebrate diversity predicted by historical area-productivity dynamics and contemporary environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Jetz

    Full Text Available Broad-scale geographic gradients in species richness have now been extensively documented, but their historical underpinning is still not well understood. While the importance of productivity, temperature, and a scale dependence of the determinants of diversity is broadly acknowledged, we argue here that limitation to a single analysis scale and data pseudo-replication have impeded an integrated evolutionary and ecological understanding of diversity gradients. We develop and apply a hierarchical analysis framework for global diversity gradients that incorporates an explicit accounting of past environmental variation and provides an appropriate measurement of richness. Due to environmental niche conservatism, organisms generally reside in climatically defined bioregions, or "evolutionary arenas," characterized by in situ speciation and extinction. These bioregions differ in age and their total productivity and have varied over time in area and energy available for diversification. We show that, consistently across the four major terrestrial vertebrate groups, current-day species richness of the world's main 32 bioregions is best explained by a model that integrates area and productivity over geological time together with temperature. Adding finer scale variation in energy availability as an ecological predictor of within-bioregional patterns of richness explains much of the remaining global variation in richness at the 110 km grain. These results highlight the separate evolutionary and ecological effects of energy availability and provide a first conceptual and empirical integration of the key drivers of broad-scale richness gradients. Avoiding the pseudo-replication that hampers the evolutionary interpretation of non-hierarchical macroecological analyses, our findings integrate evolutionary and ecological mechanisms at their most relevant scales and offer a new synthesis regarding global diversity gradients.

  19. The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fayle, Tom Maurice

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 4, č. 24 (2014), s. 4701-4735 ISSN 2045-7758 Grant - others:U.K. Natural Environment Research Council(GB) NE/J011193/1; U.K. Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council(GB) BB/F017324/1 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : data sharing * global change * habitat destruction Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.320, year: 2014 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.1303/epdf

  20. Forecasting method for global radiation time series without training phase: Comparison with other well-known prediction methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voyant, Cyril; Motte, Fabrice; Fouilloy, Alexis; Notton, Gilles; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie-Laure

    2017-01-01

    Integration of unpredictable renewable energy sources into electrical networks intensifies the complexity of the grid management due to their intermittent and unforeseeable nature. Because of the strong increase of solar power generation the prediction of solar yields becomes more and more important. Electrical operators need an estimation of the future production. For nowcasting and short term forecasting, the usual technics based on machine learning need large historical data sets of good quality during the training phase of predictors. However data are not always available and induce an advanced maintenance of meteorological stations, making the method inapplicable for poor instrumented or isolated sites. In this work, we propose intuitive methodologies based on the Kalman filter use (also known as linear quadratic estimation), able to predict a global radiation time series without the need of historical data. The accuracy of these methods is compared to other classical data driven methods, for different horizons of prediction and time steps. The proposed approach shows interesting capabilities allowing to improve quasi-systematically the prediction. For one to 10 h horizons Kalman model performances are competitive in comparison to more sophisticated models such as ANN which require both consistent historical data sets and computational resources. - Highlights: • Solar radiation forecasting with time series formalism. • Trainless approach compared to machine learning methods. • Very simple method dedicated to solar irradiation forecasting with high accuracy.

  1. Towards a Global Hub and a Network for Collaborative Advancing of Space Weather Predictive Capabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, M. M.; Heynderickz, D.; Grande, M.; Opgenoorth, H. J.

    2017-12-01

    The COSPAR/ILWS roadmap on space weather published in 2015 (Advances in Space Research, 2015: DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2015.03.023) prioritizes steps to be taken to advance understanding of space environment phenomena and to improve space weather forecasting capabilities. General recommendations include development of a comprehensive space environment specification, assessment of the state of the field on a 5-yr basis, standardization of meta-data and product metrics. To facilitate progress towards roadmap goals there is a need for a global hub for collaborative space weather capabilities assessment and development that brings together research, engineering, operational, educational, and end-user communities. The COSPAR Panel on Space Weather is aiming to build upon past progress and to facilitate coordination of established and new international space weather research and development initiatives. Keys to the success include creating flexible, collaborative, inclusive environment and engaging motivated groups and individuals committed to active participation in international multi-disciplinary teams focused on topics addressing emerging needs and challenges in the rapidly growing field of space weather. Near term focus includes comprehensive assessment of the state of the field and establishing an internationally recognized process to quantify and track progress over time, development of a global network of distributed web-based resources and interconnected interactive services required for space weather research, analysis, forecasting and education.

  2. The Consequences of China's Impending Economic Crisis on Global Economy: A Predictive Scenario on Sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mavhungu Abel Mafukata

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to predict the consequences of China's impending economic crisis on global economy – with reference to Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA in particular. The specific objective of this paper is to investigate and explore the increasing dominance of economic practice of China in SSA. China is a critical principal player in the economy of SSA. China's influence and dominance of the SSA economy might have negative effect on SSA in case of any implosion of the Chinese economy. Data were collected from print and electronic sources extracted from the vast body of empirical scholarship of different disciplines on China in SSA.  The results of this paper revealed that China is indeed dominating the economy in SSA. Pointers are that China's economic implosion would have consequences for SSA in the same way as the 2008-2009 global economic recession had around the world. This  paper positively predicts that China's economic and financial implosion remains a possibility, and would impact on SSA.

  3. Effectiveness of biological surrogates for predicting patterns of marine biodiversity: a global meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camille Mellin

    Full Text Available The use of biological surrogates as proxies for biodiversity patterns is gaining popularity, particularly in marine systems where field surveys can be expensive and species richness high. Yet, uncertainty regarding their applicability remains because of inconsistency of definitions, a lack of standard methods for estimating effectiveness, and variable spatial scales considered. We present a Bayesian meta-analysis of the effectiveness of biological surrogates in marine ecosystems. Surrogate effectiveness was defined both as the proportion of surrogacy tests where predictions based on surrogates were better than random (i.e., low probability of making a Type I error; P and as the predictability of targets using surrogates (R(2. A total of 264 published surrogacy tests combined with prior probabilities elicited from eight international experts demonstrated that the habitat, spatial scale, type of surrogate and statistical method used all influenced surrogate effectiveness, at least according to either P or R(2. The type of surrogate used (higher-taxa, cross-taxa or subset taxa was the best predictor of P, with the higher-taxa surrogates outperforming all others. The marine habitat was the best predictor of R(2, with particularly low predictability in tropical reefs. Surrogate effectiveness was greatest for higher-taxa surrogates at a <10-km spatial scale, in low-complexity marine habitats such as soft bottoms, and using multivariate-based methods. Comparisons with terrestrial studies in terms of the methods used to study surrogates revealed that marine applications still ignore some problems with several widely used statistical approaches to surrogacy. Our study provides a benchmark for the reliable use of biological surrogates in marine ecosystems, and highlights directions for future development of biological surrogates in predicting biodiversity.

  4. Skill of Predicting Heavy Rainfall Over India: Improvement in Recent Years Using UKMO Global Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Kuldeep; Ashrit, Raghavendra; Bhatla, R.; Mitra, A. K.; Iyengar, G. R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2017-11-01

    The quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) performance for heavy rains is still a challenge, even for the most advanced state-of-art high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modeling systems. This study aims to evaluate the performance of UK Met Office Unified Model (UKMO) over India for prediction of high rainfall amounts (>2 and >5 cm/day) during the monsoon period (JJAS) from 2007 to 2015 in short range forecast up to Day 3. Among the various modeling upgrades and improvements in the parameterizations during this period, the model horizontal resolution has seen an improvement from 40 km in 2007 to 17 km in 2015. Skill of short range rainfall forecast has improved in UKMO model in recent years mainly due to increased horizontal and vertical resolution along with improved physics schemes. Categorical verification carried out using the four verification metrics, namely, probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), frequency bias (Bias) and Critical Success Index, indicates that QPF has improved by >29 and >24% in case of POD and FAR. Additionally, verification scores like EDS (Extreme Dependency Score), EDI (Extremal Dependence Index) and SEDI (Symmetric EDI) are used with special emphasis on verification of extreme and rare rainfall events. These scores also show an improvement by 60% (EDS) and >34% (EDI and SEDI) during the period of study, suggesting an improved skill of predicting heavy rains.

  5. An evaluation of the Canadian global meteorological ensemble prediction system for short-term hydrological forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Anctil

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological forecasting consists in the assessment of future streamflow. Current deterministic forecasts do not give any information concerning the uncertainty, which might be limiting in a decision-making process. Ensemble forecasts are expected to fill this gap.

    In July 2007, the Meteorological Service of Canada has improved its ensemble prediction system, which has been operational since 1998. It uses the GEM model to generate a 20-member ensemble on a 100 km grid, at mid-latitudes. This improved system is used for the first time for hydrological ensemble predictions. Five watersheds in Quebec (Canada are studied: Chaudière, Châteauguay, Du Nord, Kénogami and Du Lièvre. An interesting 17-day rainfall event has been selected in October 2007. Forecasts are produced in a 3 h time step for a 3-day forecast horizon. The deterministic forecast is also available and it is compared with the ensemble ones. In order to correct the bias of the ensemble, an updating procedure has been applied to the output data. Results showed that ensemble forecasts are more skilful than the deterministic ones, as measured by the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS, especially for 72 h forecasts. However, the hydrological ensemble forecasts are under dispersed: a situation that improves with the increasing length of the prediction horizons. We conjecture that this is due in part to the fact that uncertainty in the initial conditions of the hydrological model is not taken into account.

  6. Funding of Geosciences: Coordinating National and International Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bye, B.; Fontaine, K. S.

    2012-12-01

    Funding is an important element of national as well as international policy for Earth observations. The Group on Earth Observations (GEO) is coordinating efforts to build a Global Earth Observation System of Systems, or GEOSS. The lack of dedicated funding to support specific S&T activities in support of GEOSS is one of the most important obstacles to engaging the S&T communities in its implementation. This problem can be addressed by establishing explicit linkages between research and development programmes funded by GEO Members and Participating Organizations and GEOSS. In appropriate funding programs, these links may take the form of requiring explanations of how projects to be funded will interface with GEOSS and ensuring that demonstrating significant relevance for GEOSS is viewed as an asset of these proposals, requiring registration of Earth observing systems developed in these projects, or stipulating that data and products must adhere to the GEOSS Data Sharing Principles. Examples of Earth observations include: - Measurements from ground-based, in situ monitors; - Observations from Earth satellites; - Products and predictive capabilities from Earth system models, often using the capabilities of high-performance computers; - Scientific knowledge about the Earth system; and, - Data visualization techniques. These examples of Earth observations activities requires different types of resources, R&D top-down, bottom-up funding and programs of various sizes. Where innovation and infrastructure are involved different kind of resources are better suited, for developing countries completely other sources of funding are applicable etc. The European Commission funded Egida project is coordinating the development of a funding mechanism based on current national and international funding instruments such as the European ERANet, the new Joint Programming Initiatives, ESFRI as well as other European and non-European instruments. A general introduction to various

  7. Plant species' origin predicts dominance and response to nutrient enrichment and herbivores in global grasslands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seabloom, Eric W.; Borer, Elizabeth T.; Buckley, Yvonne M.; Cleland, Elsa E.; Davies, Kendi F.; Firn, Jennifer; Harpole, W. Stanley; Hautier, Yann; Lind, Eric M.; MacDougall, Andrew S.; Orrock, John L.; Prober, Suzanne M.; Adler, Peter B.; Anderson, T. Michael; Bakker, Jonathan D.; Biederman, Lori A.; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Brown, Cynthia S.; Brudvig, Lars A.; Cadotte, Marc; Chu, Chengjin; Cottingham, Kathryn L.; Crawley, Michael J.; Damschen, Ellen I.; Dantonio, Carla M.; DeCrappeo, Nicole M.; Du, Guozhen; Fay, Philip A.; Frater, Paul; Gruner, Daniel S.; Hagenah, Nicole; Hector, Andy; Hillebrand, Helmut; Hofmockel, Kirsten S.; Humphries, Hope C.; Jin, Virginia L.; Kay, Adam; Kirkman, Kevin P.; Klein, Julia A.; Knops, Johannes M. H.; La Pierre, Kimberly J.; Ladwig, Laura; Lambrinos, John G.; Li, Qi; Li, Wei; Marushia, Robin; McCulley, Rebecca L.; Melbourne, Brett A.; Mitchell, Charles E.; Moore, Joslin L.; Morgan, John; Mortensen, Brent; O'Halloran, Lydia R.; Pyke, David A.; Risch, Anita C.; Sankaran, Mahesh; Schuetz, Martin; Simonsen, Anna; Smith, Melinda D.; Stevens, Carly J.; Sullivan, Lauren; Wolkovich, Elizabeth; Wragg, Peter D.; Wright, Justin; Yang, Louie

    2015-01-01

    Exotic species dominate many communities; however the functional significance of species' biogeographic origin remains highly contentious. This debate is fuelled in part by the lack of globally replicated, systematic data assessing the relationship between species provenance, function and response to perturbations. We examined the abundance of native and exotic plant species at 64 grasslands in 13 countries, and at a subset of the sites we experimentally tested native and exotic species responses to two fundamental drivers of invasion, mineral nutrient supplies and vertebrate herbivory. Exotic species are six times more likely to dominate communities than native species. Furthermore, while experimental nutrient addition increases the cover and richness of exotic species, nutrients decrease native diversity and cover. Native and exotic species also differ in their response to vertebrate consumer exclusion. These results suggest that species origin has functional significance, and that eutrophication will lead to increased exotic dominance in grasslands. PMID:26173623

  8. Verification of Global Radiation Forecasts from the Ensemble Prediction System at DMI

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundholm, Sisse Camilla

    To comply with an increasing demand for sustainable energy sources, a solar heating unit is being developed at the Technical University of Denmark. To make optimal use — environmentally and economically —, this heating unit is equipped with an intelligent control system using forecasts of the heat...... consumption of the house and the amount of available solar energy. In order to make the most of this solar heating unit, accurate forecasts of the available solar radiation are esstential. However, because of its sensitivity to local meteorological conditions, the solar radiation received at the surface...... of the Earth can be highly fluctuating and challenging to forecast accurately. To comply with the accuracy requirements to forecasts of both global, direct, and diffuse radiation, the uncertainty of these forecasts is of interest. Forecast uncertainties can become accessible by running an ensemble of forecasts...

  9. Predicting potential global distributions of two Miscanthus grasses: implications for horticulture, biofuel production, and biological invasions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hager, Heather A; Sinasac, Sarah E; Gedalof, Ze'ev; Newman, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    In many regions, large proportions of the naturalized and invasive non-native floras were originally introduced deliberately by humans. Pest risk assessments are now used in many jurisdictions to regulate the importation of species and usually include an estimation of the potential distribution in the import area. Two species of Asian grass (Miscanthus sacchariflorus and M. sinensis) that were originally introduced to North America as ornamental plants have since escaped cultivation. These species and their hybrid offspring are now receiving attention for large-scale production as biofuel crops in North America and elsewhere. We evaluated their potential global climate suitability for cultivation and potential invasion using the niche model CLIMEX and evaluated the models' sensitivity to the parameter values. We then compared the sensitivity of projections of future climatically suitable area under two climate models and two emissions scenarios. The models indicate that the species have been introduced to most of the potential global climatically suitable areas in the northern but not the southern hemisphere. The more narrowly distributed species (M. sacchariflorus) is more sensitive to changes in model parameters, which could have implications for modelling species of conservation concern. Climate projections indicate likely contractions in potential range in the south, but expansions in the north, particularly in introduced areas where biomass production trials are under way. Climate sensitivity analysis shows that projections differ more between the selected climate change models than between the selected emissions scenarios. Local-scale assessments are required to overlay suitable habitat with climate projections to estimate areas of cultivation potential and invasion risk.

  10. A global model of thunderstorm electricity and the prediction of whistler duct formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stansbery, E.K.

    1989-01-01

    A two-dimensional numerical model is created to calculate the electric field and current that flow from a thunderstorm source into the global electrical circuit. The model includes a hemisphere in which the thunderstorm is located, an equalization layer, and a passive magnetic conjugate hemisphere. To maintain the fair weather electric field, the output current from the thunderstorm is allowed to spread out in the ionosphere or flow along the magnetic field lines into the conjugate hemisphere. The vertical current is constant up to approximately 65 km, decays and is redirected horizontally in the ionosphere. Approximately half of the current that reaches the ionosphere flows along magnetic field lines into the conjugate hemisphere while the rest is spread out in the ionosphere and redirected to the fair weather portion of the storm hemisphere. Our results show that it is important to include a realistic model of the equalization layer to evaluate the role of thunderstorm charging of the global circuit. The mapping of thunderstorm electric fields at middle and subauroral latitudes into the magnetic equatorial plane is studied. The geomagnetic field lines are assumed to be dipolar above approximately 150 km. The horizontal electric field computed in the ionosphere by our model is of sufficient size and shape for the formation of electron density irregularities in the magnetosphere. The mechanism involves a localized convection of ionization tubes by ExB drift. It is shown that the horizontal range of the electric field disturbance in the ionosphere must be within approximately 160 km to produce density irregularities necessary for the formation of whistler ducts. Although the electric field strength at ionospheric heights depends sensitively on the conductivity profile, the results presented show that whistler duct formation is possible by thunderstorm generated electric fields.*

  11. A homology-based pipeline for global prediction of post-translational modification sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiang; Shi, Shao-Ping; Xu, Hao-Dong; Suo, Sheng-Bao; Qiu, Jian-Ding

    2016-05-01

    The pathways of protein post-translational modifications (PTMs) have been shown to play particularly important roles for almost any biological process. Identification of PTM substrates along with information on the exact sites is fundamental for fully understanding or controlling biological processes. Alternative computational strategies would help to annotate PTMs in a high-throughput manner. Traditional algorithms are suited for identifying the common organisms and tissues that have a complete PTM atlas or extensive experimental data. While annotation of rare PTMs in most organisms is a clear challenge. In this work, to this end we have developed a novel homology-based pipeline named PTMProber that allows identification of potential modification sites for most of the proteomes lacking PTMs data. Cross-promotion E-value (CPE) as stringent benchmark has been used in our pipeline to evaluate homology to known modification sites. Independent-validation tests show that PTMProber achieves over 58.8% recall with high precision by CPE benchmark. Comparisons with other machine-learning tools show that PTMProber pipeline performs better on general predictions. In addition, we developed a web-based tool to integrate this pipeline at http://bioinfo.ncu.edu.cn/PTMProber/index.aspx. In addition to pre-constructed prediction models of PTM, the website provides an extensional functionality to allow users to customize models.

  12. Global motions exhibited by proteins in micro- to milliseconds simulations concur with anisotropic network model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gur, M.; Zomot, E.; Bahar, I.

    2013-09-01

    The Anton supercomputing technology recently developed for efficient molecular dynamics simulations permits us to examine micro- to milli-second events at full atomic resolution for proteins in explicit water and lipid bilayer. It also permits us to investigate to what extent the collective motions predicted by network models (that have found broad use in molecular biophysics) agree with those exhibited by full-atomic long simulations. The present study focuses on Anton trajectories generated for two systems: the bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor, and an archaeal aspartate transporter, GltPh. The former, a thoroughly studied system, helps benchmark the method of comparative analysis, and the latter provides new insights into the mechanism of function of glutamate transporters. The principal modes of motion derived from both simulations closely overlap with those predicted for each system by the anisotropic network model (ANM). Notably, the ANM modes define the collective mechanisms, or the pathways on conformational energy landscape, that underlie the passage between the crystal structure and substates visited in simulations. In particular, the lowest frequency ANM modes facilitate the conversion between the most probable substates, lending support to the view that easy access to functional substates is a robust determinant of evolutionarily selected native contact topology.

  13. Perspectives on using remotely-sensed imagery in predictive veterinary epidemiology and global early warning systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Vincent; De Simone, Lorenzo; Lubroth, Juan; Ceccato, Pietro; Chevalier, Véronique

    2007-11-01

    Recent disease epidemics and their spread around the world have illustrated the weaknesses of disease surveillance and early warning systems (EWS), both at national and international levels. These diseases continuously threaten the livestock sector on a worldwide basis, some with major public health impact. EWS and accurate forecasting of new outbreaks of epidemic livestock diseases that may also affect wildlife, and the capacity for spread of such diseases to new areas is an essential pre-requisite to their effective containment and control. Because both the geographical and seasonal distribution of many infectious diseases are linked to climate, the possibility of using climaterelated environmental factors as predictive indicators, in association with regular disease surveillance activities, has proven to be relevant when establishing EWS for climate-related diseases. This article reviews the growing importance of using geographical information systems in predictive veterinary epidemiology and its integration into EWS, with a special focus on Rift Valley fever. It shows that, once fully validated in a country or region, this technology appears highly valuable and could play an increasing role in forecasting major epidemics, providing lead time to national veterinary services to take action to mitigate the impact of the disease in a cost-effective manner.

  14. Pension funds investments in hedge funds-a necessary regulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Gaftoniuc

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available When it comes to investment strategies, generally, pension funds have proved to be conservative investors with a long term approach on investments and constant preoccupation for asset diversification as well as tendencies to secure their portfolios through investments in established financial products. Nevertheless, within this constant preoccupation for portfolio diversification as well as gain of notable profits, private pension funds have invested to a certain degree also in less cautious products respectively have conducted less stable investments. The financial turbulences that hit the US towards the end of 2007 and spread globally to become one of the most severe financial crisis witnessed, haven’t left pension funds immune to this phenomenon. Although, as previously stated, the special feature of pension funds is based on long term investments, which confers a certain degree of natural protection, there can not be the talk of absolute immunity either.

  15. The Challenges of Developing a Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction (Alfred Wegener Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Eric F.

    2014-05-01

    The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ("From Observations to Decisions") recognizes that "water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity", and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the developments at Princeton University towards a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict

  16. Spatial correlation structure of the ionosphere predicted by geomagnetic indices and application to global field modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holschneider, M.; Ferrat, K.; Lesur, V.; Stolle, C.

    2017-12-01

    Ionospheric fields are modelled in terms of random structures taking into account a mean behaviour as well as random fluctuations which are described through two point correlation kernels. These kernels are estimated from long time series of numerical simulations from various models. These correlations are best expressed in SM system of coordinates. For the moment we limit ourselves to spatial correlations only in this coordinate system. We study the influence of various indices as possible predictor parameters for these correlations as well as seasonal effects. The various time series of ionospheric fields are stored in a HDF5 database which is accessible via a web interface. The obtained correlation structures serve as prior information to separate external and internal field components from observatory based measurements. We present a model that predicts the correlations as a function of time and some geomagnetic indices. First results of the inversion from observatory data are presented.

  17. Pension fund

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2014-01-01

    Letter sent on Monday 8 December 2014 to the delegates of the Member States to CERN Council An item on the agenda of the CERN Council of Thursday 11 December concerned the CERN Pension Fund, namely a discussion of a document that proposes how to respond to the many questions concerning pensions that had been submitted by thirteen Member State delegations. That document lists all these questions and proposes, as a first step, to consider the legal feasibility and the actuarial cost to transform our current defined-benefit pension scheme into a defined-contribution scheme. Once again, several delegates show their determination to worsen our pension conditions. The Staff Association’s Pension Commission, in a special meeting on Thursday, 4 December, has decided to send an open letter to the delegates of the CERN Council. In this letter (shown below) the Staff Association and CERN-ESO Pensions’ Association express their opposition to these intentions. We underline, once more, that the 2010...

  18. Reverse translated and gold standard continuous performance tests predict global cognitive performance in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bismark, Andrew W; Thomas, Michael L; Tarasenko, Melissa; Shiluk, Alexandra L; Rackelmann, Sonia Y; Young, Jared W; Light, Gregory A

    2018-04-12

    Attentional dysfunction contributes to functional impairments in schizophrenia (SZ). Sustained attention is typically assessed via continuous performance tasks (CPTs), though many CPTs have limited cross-species translational validity and place demands on additional cognitive domains. A reverse-translated 5-Choice Continuous Performance Task (5C-CPT) for human testing-originally developed for use in rodents-was designed to minimize demands on perceptual, visual learning, processing speed, or working memory functions. To-date, no studies have validated the 5C-CPT against gold standard attentional measures nor evaluated how 5C-CPT scores relate to cognition in SZ. Here we examined the relationship between the 5C-CPT and the CPT-Identical Pairs (CPT-IP), an established and psychometrically robust measure of vigilance from the MATRICS Consensus Cognitive Battery (MCCB) in a sample of SZ patients (n = 35). Relationships to global and individual subdomains of cognition were also assessed. 5C-CPT and CPT-IP measures of performance (d-prime) were strongly correlated (r = 0.60). In a regression model, the 5C-CPT and CPT-IP collectively accounted for 54% of the total variance in MCCB total scores, and 27.6% of overall cognitive variance was shared between the 5C-CPT and CPT-IP. These results indicate that the reverse translated 5C-CPT and the gold standard CPT-IP index a common attentional construct that also significantly overlaps with variance in general cognitive performance. The use of simple, cross-species validated behavioral indices of attentional/cognitive functioning such as the 5C-CPT could accelerate the development of novel generalized pro-cognitive therapeutics for SZ and related neuropsychiatric disorders.

  19. Proposal of a Global Training Load Measure Predicting Match Performance in an Elite Team Sport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brendan H. Lazarus

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The use of external and internal load is an important aspect of monitoring systems in team sport. The aim of this study was to validate a novel measure of training load by quantifying the training-performance relationship of elite Australian footballers.Methods: The primary training measure of each of 36 players was weekly load derived from a weighted combination of Global Positioning System (GPS data and perceived wellness over a 24-week season. Smoothed loads representing an exponentially weighted rolling average were derived with decay time constants of 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 weeks. Differential loads representing rate of change in load were generated in similar fashion. Other derived measures of training included monotony, strain and acute:chronic ratio. Performance was a proprietary score derived from match performance indicators. Effects of a 1 SD within-player change below and above the mean of each training measure were quantified with a quadratic mixed model for each position (defenders, forwards, midfielders, and rucks. Effects were interpreted using standardization and magnitude-based inferences.Results: Performance was generally highest near the mean or ~1 SD below the mean of each training measure, and 1 SD increases in the following measures produced small impairments: weekly load (defenders, forwards, and midfielders; 1.5-week smoothed load (midfielders; 4-week differential load (defenders, forwards, and midfielders; and acute:chronic ratio (defenders and forwards. Effects of other measures in other positions were either trivial or unclear.Conclusion: The innovative combination of load was sensitive to performance in this elite Australian football cohort. Periods of high acute load and sustained increases in load impaired match performance. Positional differences should be taken into account for individual training prescription.

  20. Global Longitudinal Strain to Predict Mortality in Patients With Acute Heart Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jin Joo; Park, Jun-Bean; Park, Jae-Hyeong; Cho, Goo-Yeong

    2018-05-08

    Heart failure (HF) is currently classified according to left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF); however, the prognostic value of LVEF is controversial. Myocardial strain is a prognostic factor independently of LVEF. The authors sought to evaluate the prognostic value of global longitudinal strain (GLS) in patients with HF. GLS was measured in 4,172 consecutive patients with acute HF. Patients were categorized as either HF with reduced (LVEF 12.6%), moderately (8.1% < GLS <12.5%), or severely (GLS ≤8.0%) reduced strain. The primary endpoint was 5-year all-cause mortality. Mean GLS was 10.8%, and mean LVEF was 40%. Overall, 1,740 (40.4%) patients had died at 5 years. Patients with reduced ejection fraction had slightly higher mortality than those with midrange or preserved ejection fraction (41%, 38%, and 39%, respectively; log-rank p = 0.031), whereas patients with reduced strain had significantly higher mortality (severely reduced GLS, 49%; moderately reduced GLS, 38%; mildly reduced GLS, 34%; log-rank p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, each 1% increase in GLS was associated with a 5% decreased risk for mortality (p < 0.001). Patients with moderate (hazard ratio: 1.31; 95% confidence interval: 1.13 to 1.53) and severe GLS reductions (hazard ratio: 1.61; 95% confidence interval: 1.36 to 1.91) had higher mortality, but LVEF was not associated with mortality. In patients with acute HF, GLS has greater prognostic value than LVEF. Therefore, the authors suggest that GLS should be considered as the standard measurement in all patients with HF. This new concept needs validation in further studies. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Time-series prediction of global solar radiation and of photovoltaic energy production using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voyant, Cyril

    2011-01-01

    As Corsica is a non-interconnected island, its energy supply is very special case. Indeed, as all islands, a large part of the electricity production must be generated locally. Often, renewable energies are considered as a good solution to overcome the isolation problem. However, because of their intermittent nature, they are included in a limited way in power systems. Thus, it is necessary to use in addition other energy productions, with main problem the management of the dispatch between these two energy types. This study is related to the solar and PV prediction in order to quantify available energy and to allow the optimal transition between intermittent and conventional energies sources. Throughout this work, we tested different techniques of prediction concerning four horizons interesting the power manager: d+1; h+24, h+1 and m+5. After all these manipulations, we can conclude that according the considered horizon, the prioritization of the different predictors varies. Note that for the d+1 horizon, it is interesting to use an approach based on neural network being careful to make stationary the time series, and to use exogenous variables. For the h+1 horizon, a hybrid methodology combining the robustness of the autoregressive models and the non-linearity of the connectionist models provides satisfactory results. For the h+24 case, neural networks with multiple outputs give very good results. About the m+5 horizon, our conclusions are different. Thus, even if neural networks are the most effective, the simplicity and the relatively good results shown by the persistence-based approach, lead us to recommend it. All the proposed methodologies and results are complementary to the prediction studies available in the literature. In conclusion, we can say that methodologies developed could eventually be included as prediction tools in the global command - control systems of energy sources. (author) [fr

  2. Significance of uncertainties derived from settling tank model structure and parameters on predicting WWTP performance - A global sensitivity analysis study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramin, Elham; Sin, Gürkan; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2011-01-01

    Uncertainty derived from one of the process models – such as one-dimensional secondary settling tank (SST) models – can impact the output of the other process models, e.g., biokinetic (ASM1), as well as the integrated wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) models. The model structure and parameter...... and from the last aerobic bioreactor upstream to the SST (Garrett/hydraulic method). For model structure uncertainty, two one-dimensional secondary settling tank (1-D SST) models are assessed, including a first-order model (the widely used Takács-model), in which the feasibility of using measured...... uncertainty of settler models can therefore propagate, and add to the uncertainties in prediction of any plant performance criteria. Here we present an assessment of the relative significance of secondary settling model performance in WWTP simulations. We perform a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) based...

  3. Assessment of global and local region-based bilateral mammographic feature asymmetry to predict short-term breast cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yane; Fan, Ming; Cheng, Hu; Zhang, Peng; Zheng, Bin; Li, Lihua

    2018-01-01

    This study aims to develop and test a new imaging marker-based short-term breast cancer risk prediction model. An age-matched dataset of 566 screening mammography cases was used. All ‘prior’ images acquired in the two screening series were negative, while in the ‘current’ screening images, 283 cases were positive for cancer and 283 cases remained negative. For each case, two bilateral cranio-caudal view mammograms acquired from the ‘prior’ negative screenings were selected and processed by a computer-aided image processing scheme, which segmented the entire breast area into nine strip-based local regions, extracted the element regions using difference of Gaussian filters, and computed both global- and local-based bilateral asymmetrical image features. An initial feature pool included 190 features related to the spatial distribution and structural similarity of grayscale values, as well as of the magnitude and phase responses of multidirectional Gabor filters. Next, a short-term breast cancer risk prediction model based on a generalized linear model was built using an embedded stepwise regression analysis method to select features and a leave-one-case-out cross-validation method to predict the likelihood of each woman having image-detectable cancer in the next sequential mammography screening. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values significantly increased from 0.5863  ±  0.0237 to 0.6870  ±  0.0220 when the model trained by the image features extracted from the global regions and by the features extracted from both the global and the matched local regions (p  =  0.0001). The odds ratio values monotonically increased from 1.00-8.11 with a significantly increasing trend in slope (p  =  0.0028) as the model-generated risk score increased. In addition, the AUC values were 0.6555  ±  0.0437, 0.6958  ±  0.0290, and 0.7054  ±  0.0529 for the three age groups of 37

  4. Predictive spatio-temporal model for spatially sparse global solar radiation data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    André, Maïna; Dabo-Niang, Sophie; Soubdhan, Ted; Ould-Baba, Hanany

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces a new approach for the forecasting of solar radiation series at a located station for very short time scale. We built a multivariate model in using few stations (3 stations) separated with irregular distances from 26 km to 56 km. The proposed model is a spatio temporal vector autoregressive VAR model specifically designed for the analysis of spatially sparse spatio-temporal data. This model differs from classic linear models in using spatial and temporal parameters where the available predictors are the lagged values at each station. A spatial structure of stations is defined by the sequential introduction of predictors in the model. Moreover, an iterative strategy in the process of our model will select the necessary stations removing the uninteresting predictors and also selecting the optimal p-order. We studied the performance of this model. The metric error, the relative root mean squared error (rRMSE), is presented at different short time scales. Moreover, we compared the results of our model to simple and well known persistence model and those found in literature. - Highlights: • A spatio-temporal VAR forecast model is used for spatially sparse data solar. • Lags and locations are selected by an optimization strategy. • Definition of spatial ordering of predictors influences forecasting results. • The model shows a better performance predictive at 30 min ahead in our context. • Benchmarking study shows a more accurate forecast at 1 h ahead with spatio-temporal VAR.

  5. Comparison of CFD Predictions with Shuttle Global Flight Thermal Imagery and Discrete Surface Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, William A.; Kleb, William L.; Tang, chun Y.; Palmer, Grant E.; Hyatt, Andrew J.; Wise, Adam J.; McCloud, Peter L.

    2010-01-01

    Surface temperature measurements from the STS-119 boundary-layer transition experiment on the space shuttle orbiter Discovery provide a rare opportunity to assess turbulent CFD models at hypersonic flight conditions. This flight data was acquired by on-board thermocouples and by infrared images taken off-board by the Hypersonic Thermodynamic Infrared Measurements (HYTHIRM) team, and is suitable for hypersonic CFD turbulence assessment between Mach 6 and 14. The primary assessment is for the Baldwin-Lomax and Cebeci-Smith algebraic turbulence models in the DPLR and LAURA CFD codes, respectively. A secondary assessment is made of the Shear-Stress Transport (SST) two-equation turbulence model in the DPLR code. Based upon surface temperature comparisons at eleven thermocouple locations, the algebraic-model turbulent CFD results average 4% lower than the measurements for Mach numbers less than 11. For Mach numbers greater than 11, the algebraic-model turbulent CFD results average 5% higher than the three available thermocouple measurements. Surface temperature predictions from the two SST cases were consistently 3 4% higher than the algebraic-model results. The thermocouple temperatures exhibit a change in trend with Mach number at about Mach 11; this trend is not reflected in the CFD results. Because the temperature trends from the turbulent CFD simulations and the flight data diverge above Mach 11, extrapolation of the turbulent CFD accuracy to higher Mach numbers is not recommended.

  6. Development of the virtual research environment for analysis, evaluation and prediction of global climate change impacts on the regional environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander; Fazliev, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    Description and the first results of the Russian Science Foundation project "Virtual computational information environment for analysis, evaluation and prediction of the impacts of global climate change on the environment and climate of a selected region" is presented. The project is aimed at development of an Internet-accessible computation and information environment providing unskilled in numerical modelling and software design specialists, decision-makers and stakeholders with reliable and easy-used tools for in-depth statistical analysis of climatic characteristics, and instruments for detailed analysis, assessment and prediction of impacts of global climate change on the environment and climate of the targeted region. In the framework of the project, approaches of "cloud" processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets will be developed on the technical platform of the Russian leading institution involved in research of climate change and its consequences. Anticipated results will create a pathway for development and deployment of thematic international virtual research laboratory focused on interdisciplinary environmental studies. VRE under development will comprise best features and functionality of earlier developed information and computing system CLIMATE (http://climate.scert.ru/), which is widely used in Northern Eurasia environment studies. The Project includes several major directions of research listed below. 1. Preparation of geo-referenced data sets, describing the dynamics of the current and possible future climate and environmental changes in detail. 2. Improvement of methods of analysis of climate change. 3. Enhancing the functionality of the VRE prototype in order to create a convenient and reliable tool for the study of regional social, economic and political consequences of climate change. 4. Using the output of the first three tasks, compilation of the VRE prototype, its validation, preparation of applicable detailed description of

  7. Developing a Global Database of Historic Flood Events to Support Machine Learning Flood Prediction in Google Earth Engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellman, B.; Sullivan, J.; Kettner, A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Slayback, D. A.; Kuhn, C.; Doyle, C.

    2016-12-01

    There is an increasing need to understand flood vulnerability as the societal and economic effects of flooding increases. Risk models from insurance companies and flood models from hydrologists must be calibrated based on flood observations in order to make future predictions that can improve planning and help societies reduce future disasters. Specifically, to improve these models both traditional methods of flood prediction from physically based models as well as data-driven techniques, such as machine learning, require spatial flood observation to validate model outputs and quantify uncertainty. A key dataset that is missing for flood model validation is a global historical geo-database of flood event extents. Currently, the most advanced database of historical flood extent is hosted and maintained at the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) that has catalogued 4320 floods (1985-2015) but has only mapped 5% of these floods. We are addressing this data gap by mapping the inventory of floods in the DFO database to create a first-of- its-kind, comprehensive, global and historical geospatial database of flood events. To do so, we combine water detection algorithms on MODIS and Landsat 5,7 and 8 imagery in Google Earth Engine to map discrete flood events. The created database will be available in the Earth Engine Catalogue for download by country, region, or time period. This dataset can be leveraged for new data-driven hydrologic modeling using machine learning algorithms in Earth Engine's highly parallelized computing environment, and we will show examples for New York and Senegal.

  8. Predicted global warming scenarios impact on the mother plant to alter seed dormancy and germination behaviour in Arabidopsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Z; Footitt, S; Tang, A; Finch-Savage, W E

    2018-01-01

    Seed characteristics are key components of plant fitness that are influenced by temperature in their maternal environment, and temperature will change with global warming. To study the effect of such temperature changes, Arabidopsis thaliana plants were grown to produce seeds along a uniquely designed polyethylene tunnel having a thermal gradient reflecting local global warming predictions. Plants therefore experienced the same variations in temperature and light conditions but different mean temperatures. A range of seed-related plant fitness estimates were measured. There were dramatic non-linear temperature effects on the germination behaviour in two contrasting ecotypes. Maternal temperatures lower than 15-16 °C resulted in significantly greater primary dormancy. In addition, the impact of nitrate in the growing media on dormancy was shown only by seeds produced below 15-16 °C. However, there were no consistent effects on seed yield, number, or size. Effects on germination behaviour were shown to be a species characteristic responding to temperature and not time of year. Elevating temperature above this critical value during seed development has the potential to dramatically alter the timing of subsequent seed germination and the proportion entering the soil seed bank. This has potential consequences for the whole plant life cycle and species fitness. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. An Initial Assessment of the Impact of CYGNSS Ocean Surface Wind Assimilation on Navy Global and Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, N. L.; Tsu, J.; Swadley, S. D.

    2017-12-01

    We assess the impact of assimilation of CYclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) ocean surface winds observations into the NAVGEM[i] global and COAMPS®[ii] mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Both NAVGEM and COAMPS® used the NRL 4DVar assimilation system NAVDAS-AR[iii]. Long term monitoring of the NAVGEM Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impact (FSOI) indicates that the forecast error reduction for ocean surface wind vectors (ASCAT and WindSat) are significantly larger than for SSMIS wind speed observations. These differences are larger than can be explained by simply two pieces of information (for wind vectors) versus one (wind speed). To help understand these results, we conducted a series of Observing System Experiments (OSEs) to compare the assimilation of ASCAT wind vectors with the equivalent (computed) ASCAT wind speed observations. We found that wind vector assimilation was typically 3 times more effective at reducing the NAVGEM forecast error, with a higher percentage of beneficial observations. These results suggested that 4DVar, in the absence of an additional nonlinear outer loop, has limited ability to modify the analysis wind direction. We examined several strategies for assimilating CYGNSS ocean surface wind speed observations. In the first approach, we assimilated CYGNSS as wind speed observations, following the same methodology used for SSMIS winds. The next two approaches converted CYGNSS wind speed to wind vectors, using NAVGEM sea level pressure fields (following Holton, 1979), and using NAVGEM 10-m wind fields with the AER Variational Analysis Method. Finally, we compared these methods to CYGNSS wind speed assimilation using multiple outer loops with NAVGEM Hybrid 4DVar. Results support the earlier studies suggesting that NAVDAS-AR wind speed assimilation is sub-optimal. We present detailed results from multi-month NAVGEM assimilation runs along with case studies using COAMPS®. Comparisons include the fit of

  10. GNAQPMS v1.1: accelerating the Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (GNAQPMS) on Intel Xeon Phi processors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hui; Chen, Huansheng; Wu, Qizhong; Lin, Junmin; Chen, Xueshun; Xie, Xinwei; Wang, Rongrong; Tang, Xiao; Wang, Zifa

    2017-08-01

    The Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (GNAQPMS) is the global version of the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS), which is a multi-scale chemical transport model used for air quality forecast and atmospheric environmental research. In this study, we present the porting and optimisation of GNAQPMS on a second-generation Intel Xeon Phi processor, codenamed Knights Landing (KNL). Compared with the first-generation Xeon Phi coprocessor (codenamed Knights Corner, KNC), KNL has many new hardware features such as a bootable processor, high-performance in-package memory and ISA compatibility with Intel Xeon processors. In particular, we describe the five optimisations we applied to the key modules of GNAQPMS, including the CBM-Z gas-phase chemistry, advection, convection and wet deposition modules. These optimisations work well on both the KNL 7250 processor and the Intel Xeon E5-2697 V4 processor. They include (1) updating the pure Message Passing Interface (MPI) parallel mode to the hybrid parallel mode with MPI and OpenMP in the emission, advection, convection and gas-phase chemistry modules; (2) fully employing the 512 bit wide vector processing units (VPUs) on the KNL platform; (3) reducing unnecessary memory access to improve cache efficiency; (4) reducing the thread local storage (TLS) in the CBM-Z gas-phase chemistry module to improve its OpenMP performance; and (5) changing the global communication from writing/reading interface files to MPI functions to improve the performance and the parallel scalability. These optimisations greatly improved the GNAQPMS performance. The same optimisations also work well for the Intel Xeon Broadwell processor, specifically E5-2697 v4. Compared with the baseline version of GNAQPMS, the optimised version was 3.51 × faster on KNL and 2.77 × faster on the CPU. Moreover, the optimised version ran at 26 % lower average power on KNL than on the CPU. With the combined performance and energy

  11. GNAQPMS v1.1: accelerating the Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (GNAQPMS on Intel Xeon Phi processors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wang

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The Global Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (GNAQPMS is the global version of the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS, which is a multi-scale chemical transport model used for air quality forecast and atmospheric environmental research. In this study, we present the porting and optimisation of GNAQPMS on a second-generation Intel Xeon Phi processor, codenamed Knights Landing (KNL. Compared with the first-generation Xeon Phi coprocessor (codenamed Knights Corner, KNC, KNL has many new hardware features such as a bootable processor, high-performance in-package memory and ISA compatibility with Intel Xeon processors. In particular, we describe the five optimisations we applied to the key modules of GNAQPMS, including the CBM-Z gas-phase chemistry, advection, convection and wet deposition modules. These optimisations work well on both the KNL 7250 processor and the Intel Xeon E5-2697 V4 processor. They include (1 updating the pure Message Passing Interface (MPI parallel mode to the hybrid parallel mode with MPI and OpenMP in the emission, advection, convection and gas-phase chemistry modules; (2 fully employing the 512 bit wide vector processing units (VPUs on the KNL platform; (3 reducing unnecessary memory access to improve cache efficiency; (4 reducing the thread local storage (TLS in the CBM-Z gas-phase chemistry module to improve its OpenMP performance; and (5 changing the global communication from writing/reading interface files to MPI functions to improve the performance and the parallel scalability. These optimisations greatly improved the GNAQPMS performance. The same optimisations also work well for the Intel Xeon Broadwell processor, specifically E5-2697 v4. Compared with the baseline version of GNAQPMS, the optimised version was 3.51 × faster on KNL and 2.77 × faster on the CPU. Moreover, the optimised version ran at 26 % lower average power on KNL than on the CPU. With the combined

  12. Indian mutual fund industry: Opportunities and challenges

    OpenAIRE

    Jayant R. Kale; Venkatesh Panchapagesan

    2012-01-01

    This article presents an overview of the mutual fund industry in India and the reasons for its poor penetration, which includes lack of objective research. It benchmarks the industry globally, and raises key issues regarding the ownership and performance of mutual funds, the sensitivity of fund flows to performance, and the importance of regulation to its growth, all of which have been largely under researched in India. It then captures the views of leading practitioners on these and other is...

  13. Souverinity Wealth Funds (Swfs): Kapitalisme Baru oleh Negara?

    OpenAIRE

    -, Ambarwati

    2011-01-01

    A sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) is a state-owned investment fund composed of financial assets such as stocks, bonds, property, precious metals or other financial instruments. Its invest globally and have been around for decades but since 2000, the number of sovereign wealth funds has increased dramatically. This article try to understand what is SWFs, Why does a nation need SWFs, and try to understand the position of SWFs in the global financial market. Key words: sovereign wealth funds a...

  14. Random matrix theory and fund of funds portfolio optimisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlon, T.; Ruskin, H. J.; Crane, M.

    2007-08-01

    The proprietary nature of Hedge Fund investing means that it is common practise for managers to release minimal information about their returns. The construction of a fund of hedge funds portfolio requires a correlation matrix which often has to be estimated using a relatively small sample of monthly returns data which induces noise. In this paper, random matrix theory (RMT) is applied to a cross-correlation matrix C, constructed using hedge fund returns data. The analysis reveals a number of eigenvalues that deviate from the spectrum suggested by RMT. The components of the deviating eigenvectors are found to correspond to distinct groups of strategies that are applied by hedge fund managers. The inverse participation ratio is used to quantify the number of components that participate in each eigenvector. Finally, the correlation matrix is cleaned by separating the noisy part from the non-noisy part of C. This technique is found to greatly reduce the difference between the predicted and realised risk of a portfolio, leading to an improved risk profile for a fund of hedge funds.

  15. Health Literacy and Global Cognitive Function Predict E-Mail but Not Internet Use in Heart Failure Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jared P. Schprechman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The internet offers a potential for improving patient knowledge, and e-mail may be used in patient communication with providers. However, barriers to internet and e-mail use, such as low health literacy and cognitive impairment, may prevent patients from using technological resources. Purpose. We investigated whether health literacy, heart failure knowledge, and cognitive function were related to internet and e-mail use in older adults with heart failure (HF. Methods. Older adults (N=119 with heart failure (69.84±9.09 years completed measures of health literacy, heart failure knowledge, cognitive functioning, and internet use in a cross-sectional study. Results. Internet and e-mail use were reported in 78.2% and 71.4% of this sample of patients with HF, respectively. Controlling for age and education, logistic regression analyses indicated that higher health literacy predicted e-mail (P<.05 but not internet use. Global cognitive function predicted e-mail (P<.05 but not internet use. Only 45% used the Internet to obtain information on HF and internet use was not associated with greater HF knowledge. Conclusions. The majority of HF patients use the internet and e-mail, but poor health literacy and cognitive impairment may prevent some patients from accessing these resources. Future studies that examine specific internet and email interventions to increase HF knowledge are needed.

  16. Will high-resolution global ocean models benefit coupled predictions on short-range to climate timescales?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt, Helene T.; Bell, Michael J.; Chassignet, Eric P.; Czaja, Arnaud; Ferreira, David; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hyder, Pat; McClean, Julie L.; New, Adrian L.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

    2017-12-01

    As the importance of the ocean in the weather and climate system is increasingly recognised, operational systems are now moving towards coupled prediction not only for seasonal to climate timescales but also for short-range forecasts. A three-way tension exists between the allocation of computing resources to refine model resolution, the expansion of model complexity/capability, and the increase of ensemble size. Here we review evidence for the benefits of increased ocean resolution in global coupled models, where the ocean component explicitly represents transient mesoscale eddies and narrow boundary currents. We consider lessons learned from forced ocean/sea-ice simulations; from studies concerning the SST resolution required to impact atmospheric simulations; and from coupled predictions. Impacts of the mesoscale ocean in western boundary current regions on the large-scale atmospheric state have been identified. Understanding of air-sea feedback in western boundary currents is modifying our view of the dynamics in these key regions. It remains unclear whether variability associated with open ocean mesoscale eddies is equally important to the large-scale atmospheric state. We include a discussion of what processes can presently be parameterised in coupled models with coarse resolution non-eddying ocean models, and where parameterizations may fall short. We discuss the benefits of resolution and identify gaps in the current literature that leave important questions unanswered.

  17. Canadian International Food Security Research Fund | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The Canadian International Food Security Research Fund (CIFSRF) invests in scaling up ... for farming families, and improve nutrition throughout the Global South. ... universities, civil society organizations, governments, and the private sector, ...

  18. Predicting the Future at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J. R.

    1999-01-01

    This paper summarizes a climate-prediction model funded by the DOE for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. Several articles in the open literature attest to the effects of the Global Ocean Conveyor upon paleoclimate, specifically entrance and exit from the ice age. The data shows that these millennial-scale effects are duplicated on the microscale of years to decades. This work also identifies how man may have influenced the Conveyor, affecting global cooling and warming for 2,000 years

  19. Predicting the Future at Yucca Mountain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. R. Wilson

    1999-07-01

    This paper summarizes a climate-prediction model funded by the DOE for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. Several articles in the open literature attest to the effects of the Global Ocean Conveyor upon paleoclimate, specifically entrance and exit from the ice age. The data shows that these millennial-scale effects are duplicated on the microscale of years to decades. This work also identifies how man may have influenced the Conveyor, affecting global cooling and warming for 2,000 years.

  20. Greenhouse science; Global warming: the origin and nature of alleged scientific consensus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindzen, R. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA (USA))

    1992-01-01

    The paper contends that there is not a scientific consensus on the existence of global warming. The scientific issues associated with the prediction of global warming are reviewed and it is concluded that there is no substantive basis for predictions of sizeable global warming due to observed increases in greenhouse gases such as CO[sub 2], methane and chlorofluorocarbons. The history of the current concern over global warming is described. Political aspects, scientists' concerns over funding and the desire of industrial companies to improve their public image by supporting environmental activists are some of the factors seen as responsible for the current global warming 'hysteria'. 6 figs.

  1. Energy storage and fecundity explain deviations from ecological stoichiometry predictions under global warming and size-selective predation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chao; Jansen, Mieke; De Meester, Luc; Stoks, Robby

    2016-11-01

    A key challenge for ecologists is to predict how single and joint effects of global warming and predation risk translate from the individual level up to ecosystem functions. Recently, stoichiometric theory linked these levels through changes in body stoichiometry, predicting that both higher temperatures and predation risk induce shifts in energy storage (increases in C-rich carbohydrates and reductions in N-rich proteins) and body stoichiometry (increases in C : N and C : P). This promising theory, however, is rarely tested and assumes that prey will divert energy away from reproduction under predation risk, while under size-selective predation, prey instead increase fecundity. We exposed the water flea Daphnia magna to 4 °C warming and fish predation risk to test whether C-rich carbohydrates increase and N-rich proteins decrease, and as a result, C : N and C : P increase under warming and predation risk. Unexpectedly, warming decreased body C : N, which was driven by reductions in C-rich fat and sugar contents while the protein content did not change. This reflected a trade-off where the accelerated intrinsic growth rate under warming occurred at the cost of a reduced energy storage. Warming reduced C : N less and only increased C : P and N : P in the fish-period Daphnia. These evolved stoichiometric responses to warming were largely driven by stronger warming-induced reductions in P than in C and N and could be explained by the better ability to deal with warming in the fish-period Daphnia. In contrast to theory predictions, body C : N decreased under predation risk due to a strong increase in the N-rich protein content that offsets the increase in C-rich fat content. The higher investment in fecundity (more N-rich eggs) under predation risk contributed to this stronger increase in protein content. Similarly, the lower body C : N of pre-fish Daphnia also matched their higher fecundity. Warming and predation risk independently shaped body

  2. Preparing for Exascale: Towards convection-permitting, global atmospheric simulations with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinzeller, Dominikus; Duda, Michael G.; Kunstmann, Harald

    2017-04-01

    With strong financial and political support from national and international initiatives, exascale computing is projected for the end of this decade. Energy requirements and physical limitations imply the use of accelerators and the scaling out to orders of magnitudes larger numbers of cores then today to achieve this milestone. In order to fully exploit the capabilities of these Exascale computing systems, existing applications need to undergo significant development. The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is a novel set of Earth system simulation components and consists of an atmospheric core, an ocean core, a land-ice core and a sea-ice core. Its distinct features are the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes and C-grid discretisation to address shortcomings of global models on regular grids and the use of limited area models nested in a forcing data set, with respect to parallel scalability, numerical accuracy and physical consistency. Here, we present work towards the application of the atmospheric core (MPAS-A) on current and future high performance computing systems for problems at extreme scale. In particular, we address the issue of massively parallel I/O by extending the model to support the highly scalable SIONlib library. Using global uniform meshes with a convection-permitting resolution of 2-3km, we demonstrate the ability of MPAS-A to scale out to half a million cores while maintaining a high parallel efficiency. We also demonstrate the potential benefit of a hybrid parallelisation of the code (MPI/OpenMP) on the latest generation of Intel's Many Integrated Core Architecture, the Intel Xeon Phi Knights Landing.

  3. Predicting tropospheric ozone and hydroxyl radical in a global, three-dimensional, chemistry, transport, and deposition model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Atherton, C.S.

    1995-01-05

    Two of the most important chemically reactive tropospheric gases are ozone (O{sub 3}) and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Although ozone in the stratosphere is a necessary protector against the sun`s radiation, tropospheric ozone is actually a pollutant which damages materials and vegetation, acts as a respiratory irritant, and is a greenhouse gas. One of the two main sources of ozone in the troposphere is photochemical production. The photochemistry is initiated when hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide (CO) react with nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x} = NO + NO{sub 2}) in the presence of sunlight. Reaction with the hydroxyl radical, OH, is the main sink for many tropospheric gases. The hydroxyl radical is highly reactive and has a lifetime on the order of seconds. Its formation is initiated by the photolysis of tropospheric ozone. Tropospheric chemistry involves a complex, non-linear set of chemical reactions between atmospheric species that vary substantially in time and space. To model these and other species on a global scale requires the use of a global, three-dimensional chemistry, transport, and deposition (CTD) model. In this work, I developed two such three dimensional CTD models. The first model incorporated the chemistry necessary to model tropospheric ozone production from the reactions of nitrogen oxides with carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH{sub 4}). The second also included longer-lived alkane species and the biogenic hydrocarbon isoprene, which is emitted by growing plants and trees. The models` ability to predict a number of key variables (including the concentration of O{sub 3}, OH, and other species) were evaluated. Then, several scenarios were simulated to understand the change in the chemistry of the troposphere since preindustrial times and the role of anthropogenic NO{sub x} on present day conditions.

  4. Danish mutual fund performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Michael

    2013-01-01

    This article provides the first independent performance analysis of Danish mutual funds. We analyse selectivity and market timing abilities for 71 mutual funds that have been in operation from 2001 to 2010. The results show great fund performance diversity. Half the funds have performed neutrally......, whereas 42% of the funds have shown significantly negative performance and only 7% of the funds have over-performed their benchmark. Furthermore, 14% of the funds analysed possess market timing abilities, but for 8 out of 10 funds, their market timing ability has been unsuccessful....

  5. Application of an Artificial Neural Network to the Prediction of OH Radical Reaction Rate Constants for Evaluating Global Warming Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Thomas C

    2016-03-03

    Rate constants for reactions of chemical compounds with hydroxyl radical are a key quantity used in evaluating the global warming potential of a substance. Experimental determination of these rate constants is essential, but it can also be difficult and time-consuming to produce. High-level quantum chemistry predictions of the rate constant can suffer from the same issues. Therefore, it is valuable to devise estimation schemes that can give reasonable results on a variety of chemical compounds. In this article, the construction and training of an artificial neural network (ANN) for the prediction of rate constants at 298 K for reactions of hydroxyl radical with a diverse set of molecules is described. Input to the ANN consists of counts of the chemical bonds and bends present in the target molecule. The ANN is trained using 792 (•)OH reaction rate constants taken from the NIST Chemical Kinetics Database. The mean unsigned percent error (MUPE) for the training set is 12%, and the MUPE of the testing set is 51%. It is shown that the present methodology yields rate constants of reasonable accuracy for a diverse set of inputs. The results are compared to high-quality literature values and to another estimation scheme. This ANN methodology is expected to be of use in a wide range of applications for which (•)OH reaction rate constants are required. The model uses only information that can be gathered from a 2D representation of the molecule, making the present approach particularly appealing, especially for screening applications.

  6. An effort to improve track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclones through vortex initialization in NCUM-global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vivek; Routray, A.; Mallick, Swapan; George, John P.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2016-05-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) have strong impact on socio-economic conditions of the countries like India, Bangladesh and Myanmar owing to its awful devastating power. This brings in the need of precise forecasting system to predict the tracks and intensities of TCs accurately well in advance. However, it has been a great challenge for major operational meteorological centers over the years. Genesis of TCs over data sparse warm Tropical Ocean adds more difficulty to this. Weak and misplaced vortices at initial time are one of the prime sources of track and intensity errors in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Many previous studies have reported the forecast skill of track and intensity of TC improved due to the assimilation of satellite data along with vortex initialization (VI). Keeping this in mind, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of vortex initialization for simulation of TC using UK-Met office global model, operational at NCMRWF (NCUM). This assessment is carried out by taking the case of a extremely severe cyclonic storm "Chapala" that occurred over Arabian Sea (AS) from 28th October to 3rd November 2015. Two numerical experiments viz. Vort-GTS (Assimilation of GTS observations with VI) and Vort-RAD (Same as Vort-GTS with assimilation of satellite data) are carried out. This vortex initialization study in NCUM model is first of its type over North Indian Ocean (NIO). The model simulation of TC is carried out with five different initial conditions through 24 hour cycles for both the experiments. The results indicate that the vortex initialization with assimilation of satellite data has a positive impact on the track and intensity forecast, landfall time and position error of the TCs.

  7. Does global longitudinal speckle-tracking strain predict left ventricular remodeling in patients with myocardial infarction? a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afsoon Fazlinejad

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Left ventricular remodeling is a relatively prevalent complication of acute myocardial infarction (AMI, and it is associated with higher rates of medical issues and mortality. Left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF and wall motion score index (WMSI are unable to detect accurately minor lesions following AMI. Global longitudinal strain (GLS, which is obtained through 2D-speckle tracking echocardiography (2D-STE, provides an angle-dependent measurement by which the infarcted area can be assessed as a means of identifying potential dysfunction. The main objective of this study was to evaluate whether GLS could adequately predict LV remodeling in AMI patients. Methods: The MEDLINE database from database inception to May 6th, 2015, was searched for relevant keywords and the reference lists of systematic reviews and eligible studies were also screened. All studies involving patients with their first reported case of AMI were examined for GLS by 2D-STE and were evaluated for LV remodeling at a three-month follow-up point.  Four English-language prospective cohort studies were eligible for inclusion in this study.Result: A total of 291 AMI patients (mean age=57.92 years were investigated across four different studies. The main finding of this study was that the most reliable and consistent measurement for the purposes of predicting LV remodeling in AMI patients is GLS obtained at the time of discharge, especially in STEMI patients.Discussion: In addition to their poor reproducibility, inability to stratify risks, and inter-observer variability, compensatory hyperkinesis of intact myocytes and myocardial stunning after an AMI are among the main reasons why LVEF and WMSI may not be the most effective predictors of LV remodeling in AMI.Conclusion: GLS obtained by 2D-STE at the time of discharge could be used as a reliable predictor of LV remodeling in AMI patients.

  8. The importance of biotic factors in predicting global change effects on decomposition of temperate forest leaf litter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouifed, Soraya; Handa, I Tanya; David, Jean-François; Hättenschwiler, Stephan

    2010-05-01

    Increasing atmospheric CO(2) and temperature are predicted to alter litter decomposition via changes in litter chemistry and environmental conditions. The extent to which these predictions are influenced by biotic factors such as litter species composition or decomposer activity, and in particular how these different factors interact, is not well understood. In a 5-week laboratory experiment we compared the decomposition of leaf litter from four temperate tree species (Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea, Carpinus betulus and Tilia platyphyllos) in response to four interacting factors: elevated CO(2)-induced changes in litter quality, a 3 degrees C warmer environment during decomposition, changes in litter species composition, and presence/absence of a litter-feeding millipede (Glomeris marginata). Elevated CO(2) and temperature had much weaker effects on decomposition than litter species composition and the presence of Glomeris. Mass loss of elevated CO(2)-grown leaf litter was reduced in Fagus and increased in Fagus/Tilia mixtures, but was not affected in any other leaf litter treatment. Warming increased litter mass loss in Carpinus and Tilia, but not in the other two litter species and in none of the mixtures. The CO(2)- and temperature-related differences in decomposition disappeared completely when Glomeris was present. Overall, fauna activity stimulated litter mass loss, but to different degrees depending on litter species composition, with a particularly strong effect on Fagus/Tilia mixtures (+58%). Higher fauna-driven mass loss was not followed by higher C mineralization over the relatively short experimental period. Apart from a strong interaction between litter species composition and fauna, the tested factors had little or no interactive effects on decomposition. We conclude that if global change were to result in substantial shifts in plant community composition and macrofauna abundance in forest ecosystems, these interacting biotic factors could have

  9. The CAnadian Surface Prediction ARchive (CaSPAr): A Platform to Enhance Environmental Modelling in Canada and Globally

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolson, B.; Mai, J.; Kornelsen, K. C.; Coulibaly, P. D.; Anctil, F.; Fortin, V.; Leahy, M.; Hall, B.

    2017-12-01

    Environmental models are tools for the modern society for a wide range of applications such as flood and drought monitoring, carbon storage and release estimates, predictions of power generation amounts, or reservoir management amongst others. Environmental models differ in the types of processes they incorporate, where land surface models focus on the energy, water, and carbon cycle of the land and hydrological models concentrate mainly on the water cycle. All these models, however, have in common that they rely on environmental input data from ground observations such as temperature, precipitation and/or radiation to force the model. If the same model is run in forecast mode, numerical weather predictions (NWPs) are needed to replace these ground observations. Therefore, it is critical that NWP data be available to develop models and validate forecast performance. These data are provided by the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) on a daily basis. MSC provides multiple products ranging from large scale global models ( 33km/grid cell) to high resolution pan-Canadian models ( 2.5km/grid cell). Operational products providing forecasts in real-time are made publicly available only at the time of issue through various means with new forecasts issued 2-4 times per day. Unfortunately, long term storage of these data are offline and relatively inaccessible to the research and operational communities. The new Canadian Surface Prediction Archive (CaSPAr) platform is an accessible rolling archive of 10 of MSC's NWP products. The 500TB platform will allow users to extract specific time periods, regions of interest and variables of interest in an easy to access NetCDF format. CaSPAr and community contributed post-processing scripts and tools are being developed such that the users, for example, can interpolate the data due to their needs or auto-generate model forcing files. We will present the CaSPAr platform and provide some insights in the current development of the web

  10. Two-dimensional global longitudinal strain is superior to left ventricular ejection fraction in prediction of outcome in patients with left-sided infective endocarditis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauridsen, Trine Kiilerich; Alhede, Christina; Crowley, Anna Lisa

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Impaired cardiac function is the main predictor of poor outcome in infective endocarditis (IE). Global longitudinal strain (GLS) derived from two-dimensional strain echocardiography has proven superior in prediction of long-term outcome as compared to left ventricular ejection fraction...

  11. Mutual Fund Performances of Polish Domestic Equity Fund Managers

    OpenAIRE

    Tan, Ömer Faruk; Ünal, Gözde

    2015-01-01

    Purpose of the article: The main purpose of the paper is empirically evaluating selectivity skills and market timing ability of Polish fund managers during the period from January 2009 to November 2014. After the global financial crisis of 2008, in this period of quantitative easing (QE), thanks to an increase in the money supply, a capital flow from developed countries to developing countries was observed. In this study, we try to analyse that although the financial market in Pol...

  12. Analysis of the mutual funds and pension funds in Spain: evolution and performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mercedes Alda García

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Mutual funds and pension funds are the most important investment products in Spain. Nonetheless, it should not be confused with each other, or take them as equivalent; since the latter have also the characteristic of a long-term savings product, in order to obtain additional funds for retirement. These differences may influence the investor when deciding on one of these instruments, but also the manager, developing different management strategies.Therefore, on this paper we examine the main magnitudes of both markets in Spain. Moreover, we analyze the performance of two Spanish fund samples (one with global equity mutual funds and another with global equity pension funds with the purpose of showing if their performance is efficient, and if there are differences on their management.

  13. Pension fund excellence creating value for stakeholders

    CERN Document Server

    Ambachtsheer, Keith P.

    1998-01-01

    Internationally recognized experts in the field introduce their "business excellence paradigm". In this book, two leading pension fund experts lay out a comprehensive plan for effective fund management. With the help of domestic and global case studies they critically assess current approaches to pension fund management and isolate what works and what doesn't using their unique critically acclaimed "run-it-like-a-business" model. Keith P. Ambachtsheer (Toronto, Canada) is principle at KPA Advisory Service, Inc., a pension fund management consulting firm. He runs The Ambachtsheer Letter and cofounded Cost Effective Measurement, Inc., which monitors the performance of 300 of the world's largest asset funds. D. Don Ezra (Toronto, Canada) is Director of European Consulting at Frank Russell Co. His previous books include The Struggle for Pension Fund Wealth.

  14. Mandatory portfolio disclosure, stock liquidity, and mutual fund performance

    OpenAIRE

    Agarwal, Vikas; Mullally, Kevin Andrew; Tang, Yuehua; Yang, Baozhong

    2014-01-01

    We examine the impact of mandatory portfolio disclosure by mutual funds on stock liquidity and fund performance. We develop a model of informed trading with disclosure and test its predictions using the SEC regulation in May 2004 requiring more frequent disclosure. Stocks with higher fund ownership, especially those held by more informed funds or subject to greater information asymmetry, experience larger increases in liquidity after the regulation change. More informed funds, especially thos...

  15. Deficits in Attention and Visual Processing but not Global Cognition Predict Simulated Driving Errors in Drivers Diagnosed With Mild Alzheimer's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamin, Stephanie; Stinchcombe, Arne; Gagnon, Sylvain

    2016-06-01

    This study sought to predict driving performance of drivers with Alzheimer's disease (AD) using measures of attention, visual processing, and global cognition. Simulated driving performance of individuals with mild AD (n = 20) was contrasted with performance of a group of healthy controls (n = 21). Performance on measures of global cognitive function and specific tests of attention and visual processing were examined in relation to simulated driving performance. Strong associations were observed between measures of attention, notably the Test of Everyday Attention (sustained attention; r = -.651, P = .002) and the Useful Field of View (r = .563, P = .010), and driving performance among drivers with mild AD. The Visual Object and Space Perception Test-object was significantly correlated with the occurrence of crashes (r = .652, P = .002). Tests of global cognition did not correlate with simulated driving outcomes. The results suggest that professionals exercise caution when extrapolating driving performance based on global cognitive indicators. © The Author(s) 2015.

  16. Trading Cost Management of Mutual Funds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Xing (Rang)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThis paper documents the trading behaviour of actively managed equity mutual funds from the perspective of their trading cost management. Consistent with the predictions in the literature of portfolio choice with trading costs, I present three main findings. Firstly, mutual funds trade

  17. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    Canada's Green Plan strategy for dealing with global warming is being implemented as a multidepartmental partnership involving all Canadians and the international community. Many of the elements of this strategy are built on an existing base of activities predating the Green Plan. Elements of the strategy include programs to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, such as initiatives to encourage more energy-efficient practices and development of alternate fuel sources; studies and policy developments to help Canadians prepare and adapt to climate change; research on the global warming phenomenon; and stimulation of international action on global warming, including obligations arising out of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All the program elements have been approved, funded, and announced. Major achievements to date are summarized, including improvements in the Energy Efficiency Act, studies on the socioeconomic impacts of global warming, and participation in monitoring networks. Milestones associated with the remaining global warming initiatives are listed

  18. Development of a Climate Prediction Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roulston, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    Winton, a global investment firm, is planning to establish a prediction market for climate. This prediction market will allow participants to place bets on global climate up to several decades in the future. Winton is pursuing this endeavour as part of its philanthropy that funds scientific research and the communication of scientific ideas. The Winton Climate Prediction Market will be based in the U.K. It will be structured as an online gambling site subject to the regulation of the Gambling Commission. Unlike existing betting sites, the Climate Prediction Market will be subsidized: a central market maker will inject money into the market. This is in contrast to traditional bookmakers or betting exchanges who set odds in their favour or charge commissions to make a profit. The philosophy of a subsidized prediction market is that the party seeking information should fund the market, rather than the participants who provide the information. The initial market will allow bets to be placed on the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and the global mean temperature anomaly. It will thus produce implied forecasts of carbon dioxide concentration as well as global temperatures. If the initial market is successful, additional markets could be added which target other climate variables, such as regional temperatures or sea-level rise. These markets could be sponsored by organizations that are interested in predictions of the specific climate variables. An online platform for the Climate Prediction Market has been developed and has been tested internally at Winton.

  19. Mutual funds : Management styles, social responsibility, performance and efficiency

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barkó, Tamás; Renneboog, Luc; Baker, H.; Filbeck, G.; Kiymaz, H.

    2015-01-01

    The mutual fund industry represents a substantial part of global financial markets with approximately 20 percent invested in mutual funds. Mutual funds offer a simple and easy-to-understand way to invest either into stocks or fixed income products, both for retail and institutional investors. This

  20. The U.N. Population Fund: Background and the U.S. Funding Debate

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Blanchfield, Luisa

    2008-01-01

    The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), established in 1969, is the world's largest source of population and reproductive health programs and the principal unit within the United Nations for global population issues...

  1. The U.N. Population Fund: Background and the U.S. Funding Debate

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Blanchfield, Luisa

    2007-01-01

    The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), established in 1969, is the world's largest source of population and reproductive health programs and the principal unit within the United Nations for global population issues...

  2. Global Integration of the Hot-State Brain Network of Appetite Predicts Short Term Weight Loss in Older Adult

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brielle M Paolini

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Obesity is a public health crisis in North America. While lifestyle interventions for weight loss (WL remain popular, the rate of success is highly variable. Clearly, self-regulation of eating behavior is a challenge and patterns of activity across the brain may be an important determinant of success. The current study prospectively examined whether integration across the Hot-State Brain Network of Appetite (HBN-A predicts WL after 6-months of treatment in older adults. Our metric for network integration was global efficiency (GE. The present work is a sub-study (n = 56 of an ongoing randomized clinical trial involving WL. Imaging involved a baseline food-cue visualization functional MRI (fMRI scan following an overnight fast. Using graph theory to build functional brain networks, we demonstrated that regions of the HBN-A (insula, anterior cingulate cortex (ACC, superior temporal pole, amygdala and the parahippocampal gyrus were highly integrated as evidenced by the results of a principal component analysis. After accounting for known correlates of WL (baseline weight, age, sex, and self-regulatory efficacy and treatment condition, which together contributed 36.9% of the variance in WL, greater GE in the HBN-A was associated with an additional 19% of the variance. The ACC of the HBN-A was the primary driver of this effect, accounting for 14.5% of the variance in WL when entered in a stepwise regression following the covariates, p = 0.0001. The HBN-A is comprised of limbic regions important in the processing of emotions and visceral sensations and the ACC is key for translating such processing into behavioral consequences. The improved integration of these regions may enhance awareness of body and emotional states leading to more successful self-regulation and to greater WL. This is the first study among older adults to prospectively demonstrate that, following an overnight fast, GE of the HBN-A during a food visualization task is predictive of

  3. From Alma-Ata to the Global Fund: the history of international health policy De Alma-Ata ao Fundo Global: a história da política internacional de saúde

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gavino Maciocco

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available 'Verticalization' of health care delivery, in one form or another, is the common theme pervading the history of international health policy over the last sixty years. It is often accompanied by radical policies of privatization of health services, everywhere resulting in people being forced to pay for all services. The failure of the vertical approach, of which the global public-private partnership initiatives are a modernized version, has been well recognized and its reasons are clear: actions on the distal determinants of disease (income, education, housing, the environment and infrastructure, etc are overlooked; distribution of services dedicated to specific diseases and interventions (such as AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, etc. are artificially and temporarily reinforced, creating absurd and harmful forms of competition between services and making even more precarious and inefficient the work of already fragile basic health systems. This article describes the role played in this disturbing historical development by the prevailing economic ideology and its operational arm, the World Bank, with the view to reclaim international policy making processes and actors that really respond to people's health needs.A "verticalização" da assistência à saúde, de uma forma ou de outra, é o tema comum que permeia a história política internacional de saúde ao longo desses últimos sessenta nos, muitas vezes acompanhada com políticas radicais de privatização dos serviços de saúde, resultando, em todos os lugares, na obrigatoriedade de pagamento pelo povo, de todos os serviços. A falência da abordagem vertical, cujas iniciativas de parcerias globais público-privadas constituem sua versão moderna, tem sido reconhecida, tendo sido claras as suas razões: negligenciamento das ações sobre os determinantes distais das doenças (renda, educação, moradia, o ambiente e a infra-estrutura, etc.; a distribuição de serviços dirigidos para doen

  4. Early Childhood Developmental Status in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: National, Regional, and Global Prevalence Estimates Using Predictive Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, Dana Charles; Peet, Evan D; Ezzati, Majid; Danaei, Goodarz; Black, Maureen M; Sudfeld, Christopher R; Fawzi, Wafaie; Fink, Günther

    2016-06-01

    The development of cognitive and socioemotional skills early in life influences later health and well-being. Existing estimates of unmet developmental potential in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are based on either measures of physical growth or proxy measures such as poverty. In this paper we aim to directly estimate the number of children in LMICs who would be reported by their caregivers to show low cognitive and/or socioemotional development. The present paper uses Early Childhood Development Index (ECDI) data collected between 2005 and 2015 from 99,222 3- and 4-y-old children living in 35 LMICs as part of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) programs. First, we estimate the prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional ECDI scores within our MICS/DHS sample. Next, we test a series of ordinary least squares regression models predicting low ECDI scores across our MICS/DHS sample countries based on country-level data from the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Nutrition Impact Model Study. We use cross-validation to select the model with the best predictive validity. We then apply this model to all LMICs to generate country-level estimates of the prevalence of low ECDI scores globally, as well as confidence intervals around these estimates. In the pooled MICS and DHS sample, 14.6% of children had low ECDI scores in the cognitive domain, 26.2% had low socioemotional scores, and 36.8% performed poorly in either or both domains. Country-level prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional scores on the ECDI was best represented by a model using the HDI as a predictor. Applying this model to all LMICs, we estimate that 80.8 million children ages 3 and 4 y (95% CI 48.1 million, 113.6 million) in LMICs experienced low cognitive and/or socioemotional development in 2010, with the largest number of affected children in sub-Saharan Africa (29.4.1 million; 43.8% of children ages 3 and 4 y), followed by

  5. Early Childhood Developmental Status in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: National, Regional, and Global Prevalence Estimates Using Predictive Modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Charles McCoy

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The development of cognitive and socioemotional skills early in life influences later health and well-being. Existing estimates of unmet developmental potential in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs are based on either measures of physical growth or proxy measures such as poverty. In this paper we aim to directly estimate the number of children in LMICs who would be reported by their caregivers to show low cognitive and/or socioemotional development.The present paper uses Early Childhood Development Index (ECDI data collected between 2005 and 2015 from 99,222 3- and 4-y-old children living in 35 LMICs as part of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS programs. First, we estimate the prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional ECDI scores within our MICS/DHS sample. Next, we test a series of ordinary least squares regression models predicting low ECDI scores across our MICS/DHS sample countries based on country-level data from the Human Development Index (HDI and the Nutrition Impact Model Study. We use cross-validation to select the model with the best predictive validity. We then apply this model to all LMICs to generate country-level estimates of the prevalence of low ECDI scores globally, as well as confidence intervals around these estimates. In the pooled MICS and DHS sample, 14.6% of children had low ECDI scores in the cognitive domain, 26.2% had low socioemotional scores, and 36.8% performed poorly in either or both domains. Country-level prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional scores on the ECDI was best represented by a model using the HDI as a predictor. Applying this model to all LMICs, we estimate that 80.8 million children ages 3 and 4 y (95% CI 48.1 million, 113.6 million in LMICs experienced low cognitive and/or socioemotional development in 2010, with the largest number of affected children in sub-Saharan Africa (29.4.1 million; 43.8% of children ages 3 and 4 y

  6. Prediction of the fate of radioactive material in the South Pacific Ocean using a global high-resolution ocean model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazell, Douglas R.; England, Matthew H.

    2003-01-01

    We investigate the release of radioactive contaminants from Moruroa Atoll in a global high-resolution off-line model. The spread of tracer is studied in a series of simulations with varying release depths and time-scales, and into ocean velocity fields corresponding to long-term annual mean, seasonal, and interannually varying scenarios. In the instantaneous surface release scenarios we find that the incorporation of a seasonal cycle greatly influences tracer advection, with maximum concentrations still found within the French Polynesia region after 10 years. In contrast, the maximum trace is located in the southeast Pacific when long-term annual mean fields are used. This emphasizes the importance of the seasonal cycle in models of pollution dispersion on large scales. We further find that during an El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event reduced currents in the region of Moruroa Atoll result in increased concentrations of radioactive material in French Polynesia, as direct flushing from the source is reduced. In terms of the sensitivity to tracer release time-rates, we find that a gradual input results in maximum concentrations in the near vicinity of French Polynesia. This contrasts the instantaneous-release scenarios, which see maximum concentrations and tracer spread across much of the South Pacific Ocean. For example, in as little as seven years radioactive contamination can reach the east coast of Australia diluted by only a factor of 1000 of the initial concentration. A comparison of results is made with previous studies. Overall, we find much higher concentrations of radionuclides in the South Pacific than has previously been predicted using coarser-resolution models

  7. The thermal niche of Neotropical nectar-feeding bats: Its evolution and application to predict responses to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega-García, Stephanie; Guevara, Lázaro; Arroyo-Cabrales, Joaquín; Lindig-Cisneros, Roberto; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique; Vega, Ernesto; Schondube, Jorge E

    2017-09-01

    The thermal niche of a species is one of the main determinants of its ecology and biogeography. In this study, we determined the thermal niche of 23 species of Neotropical nectar-feeding bats of the subfamily Glossophaginae (Chiroptera, Phyllostomidae). We calculated their thermal niches using temperature data obtained from collection records, by generating a distribution curve of the maximum and minimum temperatures per locality, and using the inflection points of the temperature distributions to estimate the species optimal (STZ) and suboptimal (SRZ) zones of the thermal niche. Additionally, by mapping the values of the STZ and SRZ on a phylogeny of the group, we generated a hypothesis of the evolution of the thermal niches of this clade of nectar-feeding bats. Finally, we used the characteristics of their thermal niches to predict the responses of these organisms to climate change. We found a large variation in the width and limits of the thermal niches of nectar-feeding bats. Additionally, while the upper limits of the thermal niches varied little among species, their lower limits differ wildly. The ancestral reconstruction of the thermal niche indicated that this group of Neotropical bats evolved under cooler temperatures. The two clades inside the Glossophaginae differ in the evolution of their thermal niches, with most members of the clade Choeronycterines evolving "colder" thermal niches, while the majority of the species in the clade Glossophagines evolving "warmer" thermal niches. By comparing thermal niches with climate change models, we found that all species could be affected by an increase of 1°C in temperature at the end of this century. This suggests that even nocturnal species could suffer important physiological costs from global warming. Our study highlights the value of scientific collections to obtain ecologically significant physiological data for a large number of species.

  8. Cash Holdings and Mutual Fund Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Mikhail Simutin

    2014-01-01

    Cash holdings of equity mutual funds impose a drag on fund performance but also allow managers to make quick investments in attractive stocks and satisfy outflows without costly fire sales. This article shows that actively managed equity funds with high abnormal cash—that is, with cash holdings in excess of the level predicted by fund attributes—outperform their low abnormal cash peers by over 2% per year. Managers carrying high abnormal cash compensate for the low return on cash by making su...

  9. Impact Of The Oil Trade On The Global Economy And The Role Of Giant Fields In Predicting Supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelley, Wayne; Bishop, Richard

    2010-09-15

    Confusion about global oil supply ('peak oil') is a distraction from the economic issue of massive wealth transfer associated with oil trading and its potential to destabilize the world economy. Without an accurate forecast of oil volumes (resources, reserves and supply), timing and cost, there is no reliable way to model the consequences of the oil trade on the global economy. This paper illustrates why it is imperative to improve our understanding of the oil trade on the global economy and proposes a method of forecasting oil supply for input into a credible global economic model.

  10. Is climate predictable?. Fear of global warming and rise of sea levels; Laesst sich das Klima in die Karten schauen?. Globale Erwaermung und Anstieg des Meeresspiegels befuerchtet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grassl, H [Weltorganisation fuer Meteorologie (WMO), Genf (Switzerland)

    1995-02-01

    Scientific warnings of world-wide climate changes through human activities were voiced even as long ago as 100 years before now. A chain of evidence reaching into our time has since turned up. With the first UN world climate conference in 1979, climate change became a concern of climatologists all over the world. Many scientists fear that man has already triggered global warming by emissions of trace gases into the atmosphere. (orig.) [Deutsch] Wissenschaftliche Warnungen vor weltweiten Klimaveraenderungen durch den Menschen reichen inzwischen rund 100 Jahre zurueck. Seither fuehrt eine Kette von Befunden bis in unsere Zeit. Mit der ersten UN-Weltklimakonferenz im Jahr 1979 wurden sie zu einem internationalen Anliegen der Klimatologie. Viele Wissenschaftler befuerchten, dass der Mensch mit Emissionen von Spurengasen in die Atmosphaere eine globale Erwaermung bereits angestossen hat. (orig.)

  11. Wind directions predicted from global circulation models and wind directions determined from eolian sandstones of the western United States-A comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrish, Judith T.; Peterson, F.

    1988-01-01

    Wind directions for Middle Pennsylvanian through Jurassic time are predicted from global circulation models for the western United States. These predictions are compared with paleowind directions interpreted from eolian sandstones of Middle Pennsylvanian through Jurassic age. Predicted regional wind directions correspond with at least three-quarters of the paleowind data from the sandstones; the rest of the data may indicate problems with correlation, local effects of paleogeography on winds, and lack of resolution of the circulation models. The data and predictions suggest the following paleoclimatic developments through the time interval studied: predominance of winter subtropical high-pressure circulation in the Late Pennsylvanian; predominance of summer subtropical high-pressure circulation in the Permian; predominance of summer monsoonal circulation in the Triassic and earliest Jurassic; and, during the remainder of the Jurassic, influence of both summer subtropical and summer monsoonal circulation, with the boundary between the two systems over the western United States. This sequence of climatic changes is largely owing to paleogeographic changes, which influenced the buildup and breakdown of the monsoonal circulation, and possibly owing partly to a decrease in the global temperature gradient, which might have lessened the influence of the subtropical high-pressure circulation. The atypical humidity of Triassic time probably resulted from the monsoonal circulation created by the geography of Pangaea. This circulation is predicted to have been at a maximum in the Triassic and was likely to have been powerful enough to draw moisture along the equator from the ocean to the west. ?? 1988.

  12. The funding black hole

    CERN Multimedia

    2008-01-01

    Two physics students at the University of Bristol have organised a petition against the recently-announced funding cut of 80 million by the body that funds physics research in the UK, the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC).

  13. Fanconi Anemia Research Fund

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Support Publications Fundraising News What is the Fanconi Anemia Research Fund? Fanconi anemia is an inherited disease that can lead to ... population. Lynn and Dave Frohnmayer started the Fanconi Anemia Research Fund, in 1989 to find effective treatments ...

  14. An Empirical Study on Mutual Funds in the U.S. Market: Performance Evaluation and Its Relation with Fund Size

    OpenAIRE

    Du, Lin

    2008-01-01

    Mutual funds industry has grown rapidly since 1970s. As one popular type of financial intermediary, mutual fund investment becomes an important player in the financial market globally. The evaluation of mutual fund performance has been achieving a great deal of academic interest since 1960s. There has been a great deal of research which examined whether mutual funds can outperform well-diversified portfolios such as a market index. However, the findings are usually suggestive rather than conc...

  15. Japan’s efforts to promote global health using satellite remote sensing data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency for prediction of infectious diseases and air quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamotsu Igarashi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we review the status of new applications research of the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA for global health promotion using information derived from Earth observation data by satellites in cooperation with inter-disciplinary collaborators. Current research effort at JAXA to promote global public health is focused primarily on the use of remote sensing to address two themes: (i prediction models for malaria and cholera in Kenya, Africa; and (ii air quality assessment of small, particulate matter (PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide (NO2 and ozone (O3. Respiratory and cardivascular diseases constitute cross-boundary public health risk issues on a global scale. The authors report here on results of current of a collaborative research to call attention to the need to take preventive measures against threats to public health using newly arising remote sensing information from space.

  16. Focal Low and Global High Permeability Predict the Possibility, Risk, and Location of Hemorrhagic Transformation following Intra-Arterial Thrombolysis Therapy in Acute Stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y; Xia, Y; Chen, H; Liu, N; Jackson, A; Wintermark, M; Zhang, Y; Hu, J; Wu, B; Zhang, W; Tu, J; Su, Z; Zhu, G

    2017-09-01

    The contrast volume transfer coefficient ( K trans ), which reflects blood-brain barrier permeability, is influenced by circulation and measurement conditions. We hypothesized that focal low BBB permeability values can predict the spatial distribution of hemorrhagic transformation and global high BBB permeability values can predict the likelihood of hemorrhagic transformation. We retrospectively enrolled 106 patients with hemispheric stroke who received intra-arterial thrombolytic treatment. K trans maps were obtained with first-pass perfusion CT data. The K trans values at the region level, obtained with the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score system, were compared to determine the differences between the hemorrhagic transformation and nonhemorrhagic transformation regions. The K trans values of the whole ischemic region based on baseline perfusion CT were obtained as a variable to hemorrhagic transformation possibility at the global level. Forty-eight (45.3%) patients had hemorrhagic transformation, and 21 (19.8%) had symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage. At the region level, there were 82 ROIs with hemorrhagic transformation and parenchymal hemorrhage with a mean K trans , 0.5 ± 0.5/min, which was significantly lower than that in the nonhemorrhagic transformation regions ( P transformation ROIs was 0.7 ± 0.6/min. At the global level, there was a significant difference ( P = .01) between the mean K trans values of patients with symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (1.3 ± 0.9) and those without symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (0.8 ± 0.4). Only a high K trans value at the global level could predict the occurrence of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage ( P transformation or symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage at the patient level, whereas focal low K trans values can predict the spatial distributions of hemorrhagic transformation at the region level. © 2017 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

  17. Pension funds' herding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broeders, D.; Chen, D.; Minderhoud, P.; Schudel, W.

    2016-01-01

    This paper uses unique and detailed transaction data to analyse herding behavior among pension funds. We distinguish between weak, semi strong and strong herding behaviour. Weak herding occurs if pension funds have similar rebalancing strategies. Semi strong herding arises when pension funds react

  18. Prediction And Performance Assessments of External Horizontal Global Illuminance of Measured Data from Port-Harcourt, Nigeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akingbade, F.O.A.

    2002-01-01

    This paper reports the measurements and analysis of external horizontal global illuminance for Port-Harcourt, Nigeria. A set of empirical expressions were derived from seasonal and yearly variations of horizontal global illuminance against solar altitude. The model derived from the study performed better compared with two other models proposed for the area from other studies conducted elsewhere. The results presented here serves to develop the base for reliable localized day lighting data to be used in building designs in the area

  19. Are fund of hedge fund returns asymmetric?

    OpenAIRE

    Lynch, Margaret; Hutson, Elaine; Stevenson, Max

    2004-01-01

    We examine the return distributions of 332 funds of hedge funds and associated indices. Over half of the sample is significantly skewed according to the skewness statistic, and these are split 50/50 positive and negative. However, we argue that the skewness statistic can lead to erroneous inferences regarding the nature of the return distribution, because the test statistic is based on the normal distribution. Using a series of tests that make minimal assumptions about the shape of the ...

  20. Indian mutual fund industry: Opportunities and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayant R. Kale

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents an overview of the mutual fund industry in India and the reasons for its poor penetration, which includes lack of objective research. It benchmarks the industry globally, and raises key issues regarding the ownership and performance of mutual funds, the sensitivity of fund flows to performance, and the importance of regulation to its growth, all of which have been largely under researched in India. It then captures the views of leading practitioners on these and other issues, including the challenges posed by poor financial literacy, the equity culture in the country, and the weakly supportive regulatory environment.

  1. Fund management plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-08-01

    This revision of the Fund Management Plan updates the original plan published in May 1983. It is derived from and supplements the Mission Plan of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management. A major purpose in preparing this Plan is to inform the public about management of the Nuclear Waste Fund and the Interim Storage Fund. The purpose of the Interim Storage Fund is to finance the provision of the Federal interim storage capacity of up to 1900 metric tons of spent nuclear fuel. The Nuclear Waste Fund is a separate account for all revenues and expenditures related to the geological disposal and monitored retrieval storage of civilian radioactive waste

  2. Offshore Investment Funds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shang-Jin Wei

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available Offshore investment funds are alleged to have engaged in trading behavior that is different from their onshore counterparts because they may be subject to less supervision and regulation. In particular, they may trade more intensely. They could also pursue more aggressively certain trading strategies such as positive feedback trading or herding that could contribute to a greater volatility in the market. Using a unique data set, this chapter compares the trading behavior in the Korean stock market between offshore investment funds with their onshore counterparts registered in the US and UK. There are a number of interesting findings. First, there is indeed evidence suggesting that the offshore funds trade more intensely than their onshore counterparts. Second, however, there is no evidence that the offshore funds engage in positive feedback trading. In contrast, there is strong evidence that the funds from the U.S. and U.K. do. Third, while offshore funds do herd, they do so far less than onshore funds in the U.S. or UK. Fourth, offshore funds hold less glamour stocks (e.g. stocks with high P/E in their portfolio than funds in the U.S. or U.K. do. Moreover, flight to glamour stocks during the in-crisis period is less evident in the case of offshore funds. In sum, offshore funds are no especially worrisome monsters.

  3. Trust Fund Support for Development : An Evaluation of the World Bank's Trust Fund Portfolio

    OpenAIRE

    Independent Evaluation Group

    2011-01-01

    In the changing global environment of development cooperation, trust funds have emerged as a significant pillar of the global aid architecture, used to address limitations in bilateral aid and fill perceived gaps in the operations of existing multilateral institutions. They currently account for about 11 percent of official development assistance (ODA), and they finance a substantial part ...

  4. Performance Prediction of Centrifugal Compressor for Drop-In Testing Using Low Global Warming Potential Alternative Refrigerants and Performance Test Codes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joo Hoon Park

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available As environmental regulations to stall global warming are strengthened around the world, studies using newly developed low global warming potential (GWP alternative refrigerants are increasing. In this study, substitute refrigerants, R-1234ze (E and R-1233zd (E, were used in the centrifugal compressor of an R-134a 2-stage centrifugal chiller with a fixed rotational speed. Performance predictions and thermodynamic analyses of the centrifugal compressor for drop-in testing were performed. A performance prediction method based on the existing ASME PTC-10 performance test code was proposed. The proposed method yielded the expected operating area and operating point of the centrifugal compressor with alternative refrigerants. The thermodynamic performance of the first and second stages of the centrifugal compressor was calculated as the polytropic state. To verify the suitability of the proposed method, the drop-in test results of the two alternative refrigerants were compared. The predicted operating range based on the permissible deviation of ASME PTC-10 confirmed that the temperature difference was very small at the same efficiency. Because the drop-in test of R-1234ze (E was performed within the expected operating range, the centrifugal compressor using R-1234ze (E is considered well predicted. However, the predictions of the operating point and operating range of R-1233zd (E were lower than those of the drop-in test. The proposed performance prediction method will assist in understanding thermodynamic performance at the expected operating point and operating area of a centrifugal compressor using alternative gases based on limited design and structure information.

  5. Which part of a short, global risk assessment, the Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community, predicts adverse healthcare outcomes?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O’Caoimh, Rónán

    2015-01-01

    The Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community (RISC) is a short, global risk assessment to identify community-dwelling older adults’ one-year risk of institutionalisation, hospitalisation, and death. We investigated the contribution that the three components of the RISC (\

  6. A Fund of Wisdom

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seabrooke, Leonard; Broome, André

    2006-01-01

    The International Monetary Fund spends most of its time monitoring its member states' economic performance and advising on institutional change. While much of the literature sees the Fund as a policy enforcer in "emerging market" and "frontier" economies, little attention has been paid to exploring...... for change on the basis of like-characteristics among economies. Many Western states, particularly small open economies, consider the Fund's advice as important not only for technical know-how, but because Fund assessments are significant to international and domestic political audiences. This article traces...... the Fund's advice on taxation and monetary reform to two coordinated market economies, Denmark and Sweden, and two liberal market economies, Australia and New Zealand from 1975 to 2004. It maps how the Fund advocated "policy revolutions" and "policy recombinations" during this period, advice that coincided...

  7. 76 FR 45303 - ING Asia Pacific High Dividend Equity Income Fund, et al.; Notice of Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-28

    ... Premium Opportunity Fund (``IGA''); ING Global Equity Dividend and Premium Opportunity Fund (``IGD''); ING... Exchange. PRT has also issued preferred shares. Each Current Fund reserves the right to issue preferred... market price and its net asset value per common share (``NAV'')) and the relationship between such Fund's...

  8. CERN Pension Fund move

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2007-01-01

    The CERN Pension Fund has moved to new offices on the 5th floor of Building 5. The Benefits Service of the Fund is now located in Offices 5-5-017 - 5-5-021 - 5-5-023. We remind you that the office hours are: Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday from 10 am to 12 am and from 3 pm to 5 pm. The Fund would like to take this opportunity to warmly thank all the persons involved in the relocation.

  9. Regulating hedge funds.

    OpenAIRE

    Daníelsson, J.; Zigrand, JP.

    2007-01-01

    Due to the ever-increasing amounts under management and their unregulated and opaque nature, hedge funds have emerged as a key concern for policymakers. While until now, hedge funds have been left essentially unregulated, we are seeing increasing calls for regulation for both microprudential and macroprudential reasons. In our view, most calls for the regulation of hedge funds are based on a misperception of the effectiveness of financial regulations, perhaps coupled with a lack of understand...

  10. Prediction of monthly global solar radiation using adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) technique over the state of Tamilnadu (India): a comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sumithira, T. R.; Nirmal, Kumar A.

    2012-01-01

    Enormous potential of solar energy as a clean and pollution free source enrich the global power generation. India, being a tropical country, has high solar radiation and it lies to the north of equator between 8 degree 4' and 37 degree 6' North latitude and 68 degree 7' , and 97 degree 5' East longitude. In south india, Tamilnadu is located in the extreme south east with an average temperature of grater than 27.5 degree (> 81.5 F). In this study, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) based modelling approach to predict the monthly global solar radiation (MGSR) in Tamilnadu is presented using the real meteorological solar radiation data from the 31 districts of Tamilnadu with different latitude and longitude. The purpose of the study is to compare the accuracy of ANFIS and other soft computing models as found in literature to assess the solar radiation. The performance of the proposed model was tested and compared with other earth region in a case study. The statistical performance parameters such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE), and coefficient of determination (R2) are presented and compared to validate the performance. The comparative test results prove the ANFIS based prediction are better than other models and furthermore proves its prediction capability for any geographical area with changing meteorological conditions. (author)

  11. INDEXING AND INDEX FUNDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HAKAN SARITAŞ

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Proponents of the efficient market hypothesis believe that active portfolio management is largely wasted effort and unlikely to justify the expenses incurred. Therefore, they advocate a passive investment strategy that makes no attempt to outsmart the market. One common strategy for passive management is indexing where a fund is designed to replicate the performance of a broad-based index of stocks and bonds. Traditionally, indexing was used by institutional investors, but today, the use of index funds proliferated among individual investors. Over the years, both international and domestic index funds have disproportionately outperformed the market more than the actively managed funds have.

  12. Sovereign Wealth Funds: Issue of transparency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Daliborka

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Subject of the paper includes Sovereign Wealth Funds and the formation of the first regulatory framework for their investment activities. Sovereign Wealth Funds invested a significant amount of money in Western financial institutions during the global financial crisis and thus played a crucial role in the preservation and stabilization of the global financial system. However, at the same time, a large gap between the financial power of Sovereign Wealth Funds and the level of their transparency was noted. The need to improve the transparency of Sovereign Wealth Funds has been recognized by international institutions, the OECD and the IMF, which initiated the formulation of the first international regulatory framework regarding the operations of these types of funds. The current international regulatory framework represents a sufficient basis for the gradual improvement of transparency, but because of its non-binding and voluntary nature, certain issues such as the protection of national security interests remain open. Therefore, the solutions can be sought through a process of continuous improvement of international regulation as well as strengthening cooperation between Sovereign Wealth Funds and governments of countries in which they invest.

  13. The Persistence of Risk-Adjusted Mutual Fund Performance.

    OpenAIRE

    Elton, Edwin J; Gruber, Martin J; Blake, Christopher R

    1996-01-01

    The authors examine predictability for stock mutual funds using risk-adjusted returns. They find that past performance is predictive of future risk-adjusted performance. Applying modern portfolio theory techniques to past data improves selection and allows the authors to construct a portfolio of funds that significantly outperforms a rule based on past rank alone. In addition, they can form a combination of actively managed portfolios with the same risk as a portfolio of index funds but with ...

  14. Global Optimization of Ventricular Myocyte Model to Multi-Variable Objective Improves Predictions of Drug-Induced Torsades de Pointes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trine Krogh-Madsen

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In silico cardiac myocyte models present powerful tools for drug safety testing and for predicting phenotypical consequences of ion channel mutations, but their accuracy is sometimes limited. For example, several models describing human ventricular electrophysiology perform poorly when simulating effects of long QT mutations. Model optimization represents one way of obtaining models with stronger predictive power. Using a recent human ventricular myocyte model, we demonstrate that model optimization to clinical long QT data, in conjunction with physiologically-based bounds on intracellular calcium and sodium concentrations, better constrains model parameters. To determine if the model optimized to congenital long QT data better predicts risk of drug-induced long QT arrhythmogenesis, in particular Torsades de Pointes risk, we tested the optimized model against a database of known arrhythmogenic and non-arrhythmogenic ion channel blockers. When doing so, the optimized model provided an improved risk assessment. In particular, we demonstrate an elimination of false-positive outcomes generated by the baseline model, in which simulations of non-torsadogenic drugs, in particular verapamil, predict action potential prolongation. Our results underscore the importance of currents beyond those directly impacted by a drug block in determining torsadogenic risk. Our study also highlights the need for rich data in cardiac myocyte model optimization and substantiates such optimization as a method to generate models with higher accuracy of predictions of drug-induced cardiotoxicity.

  15. Comparison between frailty index of deficit accumulation and phenotypic model to predict risk of falls: data from the global longitudinal study of osteoporosis in women (GLOW Hamilton cohort.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guowei Li

    Full Text Available To compare the predictive accuracy of the frailty index (FI of deficit accumulation and the phenotypic frailty (PF model in predicting risks of future falls, fractures and death in women aged ≥55 years.Based on the data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW 3-year Hamilton cohort (n = 3,985, we compared the predictive accuracy of the FI and PF in risks of falls, fractures and death using three strategies: (1 investigated the relationship with adverse health outcomes by increasing per one-fifth (i.e., 20% of the FI and PF; (2 trichotomized the FI based on the overlap in the density distribution of the FI by the three groups (robust, pre-frail and frail which were defined by the PF; (3 categorized the women according to a predicted probability function of falls during the third year of follow-up predicted by the FI. Logistic regression models were used for falls and death, while survival analyses were conducted for fractures.The FI and PF agreed with each other at a good level of consensus (correlation coefficients ≥ 0.56 in all the three strategies. Both the FI and PF approaches predicted adverse health outcomes significantly. The FI quantified the risks of future falls, fractures and death more precisely than the PF. Both the FI and PF discriminated risks of adverse outcomes in multivariable models with acceptable and comparable area under the curve (AUCs for falls (AUCs ≥ 0.68 and death (AUCs ≥ 0.79, and c-indices for fractures (c-indices ≥ 0.69 respectively.The FI is comparable with the PF in predicting risks of adverse health outcomes. These findings may indicate the flexibility in the choice of frailty model for the elderly in the population-based settings.

  16. Comparison between frailty index of deficit accumulation and phenotypic model to predict risk of falls: data from the global longitudinal study of osteoporosis in women (GLOW) Hamilton cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guowei; Thabane, Lehana; Ioannidis, George; Kennedy, Courtney; Papaioannou, Alexandra; Adachi, Jonathan D

    2015-01-01

    To compare the predictive accuracy of the frailty index (FI) of deficit accumulation and the phenotypic frailty (PF) model in predicting risks of future falls, fractures and death in women aged ≥55 years. Based on the data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) 3-year Hamilton cohort (n = 3,985), we compared the predictive accuracy of the FI and PF in risks of falls, fractures and death using three strategies: (1) investigated the relationship with adverse health outcomes by increasing per one-fifth (i.e., 20%) of the FI and PF; (2) trichotomized the FI based on the overlap in the density distribution of the FI by the three groups (robust, pre-frail and frail) which were defined by the PF; (3) categorized the women according to a predicted probability function of falls during the third year of follow-up predicted by the FI. Logistic regression models were used for falls and death, while survival analyses were conducted for fractures. The FI and PF agreed with each other at a good level of consensus (correlation coefficients ≥ 0.56) in all the three strategies. Both the FI and PF approaches predicted adverse health outcomes significantly. The FI quantified the risks of future falls, fractures and death more precisely than the PF. Both the FI and PF discriminated risks of adverse outcomes in multivariable models with acceptable and comparable area under the curve (AUCs) for falls (AUCs ≥ 0.68) and death (AUCs ≥ 0.79), and c-indices for fractures (c-indices ≥ 0.69) respectively. The FI is comparable with the PF in predicting risks of adverse health outcomes. These findings may indicate the flexibility in the choice of frailty model for the elderly in the population-based settings.

  17. Building Global Learning Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochrane, Thomas; Buchem, Ilona; Camacho, Mar; Cronin, Catherine; Gordon, Averill; Keegan, Helen

    2013-01-01

    Within the background where education is increasingly driven by the economies of scale and research funding, we propose an alternative online open and connected framework (OOC) for building global learning communities using mobile social media. We critique a three year action research case study involving building collaborative global learning…

  18. Prognostic factors in patients with advanced cancer: use of the patient-generated subjective global assessment in survival prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Lisa; Watanabe, Sharon; Fainsinger, Robin; Lau, Francis; Ghosh, Sunita; Quan, Hue; Atkins, Marlis; Fassbender, Konrad; Downing, G Michael; Baracos, Vickie

    2010-10-01

    To determine whether elements of a standard nutritional screening assessment are independently prognostic of survival in patients with advanced cancer. A prospective nested cohort of patients with metastatic cancer were accrued from different units of a Regional Palliative Care Program. Patients completed a nutritional screen on admission. Data included age, sex, cancer site, height, weight history, dietary intake, 13 nutrition impact symptoms, and patient- and physician-reported performance status (PS). Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were conducted. Concordance statistics (c-statistics) were used to test the predictive accuracy of models based on training and validation sets; a c-statistic of 0.5 indicates the model predicts the outcome as well as chance; perfect prediction has a c-statistic of 1.0. A training set of patients in palliative home care (n = 1,164) was used to identify prognostic variables. Primary disease site, PS, short-term weight change (either gain or loss), dietary intake, and dysphagia predicted survival in multivariate analysis (P statistics between predicted and observed responses for survival in the training set (0.90) and validation set (0.88; n = 603). The addition of weight change, dietary intake, and dysphagia did not further improve the c-statistic of the model. The c-statistic was also not altered by substituting physician-rated palliative PS for patient-reported PS. We demonstrate a high probability of concordance between predicted and observed survival for patients in distinct palliative care settings (home care, tertiary inpatient, ambulatory outpatient) based on patient-reported information.

  19. Livestock Vaccine Innovation Fund | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The Livestock Vaccine Innovation Fund was established in September 2015 as a partnership between the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Global Affairs Canada, and the International Development Research Centre. It represents a joint investment of $57 million over five years to support the development, production, and ...

  20. NREL Funding Reductions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Energy Laboratory (NREL) announced today that it will further reduce its work force as a result of million. Recent indications, however, are that NREL's funding will be lowered by an additional $27 million employees. NREL Director Charles F. Gay said the additional funding cuts are a result of lower than expected

  1. The Phony Funding Crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guthrie, James W.; Peng, Arthur

    2010-01-01

    If one relies on newspaper headlines for education funding information, one might conclude that America's schools suffer from a perpetual fiscal crisis, every year perched precariously on the brink of financial ruin, never knowing whether there will be sufficient funding to continue operating. Budgetary shortfalls, school district bankruptcies,…

  2. Fund management plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-05-01

    The Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, P.L. 97-425 (the Act), provides for establishment of two separate special funds in the US Treasury, the Interim Storage Fund and the Nuclear Waste Fund (the Funds). The Interim Storage Fund (Sec. 136) is the financing mechanism for the provision of federal interim storage capacity, not to exceed 1900 metric tons, for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) from civilian reactors. Basically, interim storage of SNF is the responsibility of the owners and generators of nuclear wastes. Storage at government facilities will be provided only if the utilities do not have adequate storage capacity. The Nuclear Waste Fund (Sec. 302) is the statutory financing approach for the Department's radioactive waste disposal program. P.L. 97-425 directs utilities to pay a mandatory fee to cover DOE's expected costs for nuclear waste disposal. The Funds are administered by the Department of Energy. This Plan identifies how DOE will implement and manage the Nuclear Waste and Interim Storage Funds

  3. Educational Technology Funding Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark, Amy E.

    2008-01-01

    Library and cross-disciplinary literature all stress the increasing importance of instructional technology in higher education. However, there is a dearth of articles detailing funding for library instructional technology. The bulk of library literature on funding for these projects focuses on one-time grant opportunities and on the architecture…

  4. Activity Fund Accounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cool, David W.

    1983-01-01

    Addresses the need of school districts in many states to decide on an appropriate mingling of centralization and decentralization in the operation of activity funds. Argues for analysis of activity fund operation through a breakdown into such major components as policy, the accounting system, and reporting and auditing. (JBM)

  5. Fine-Motor Skill Deficits in Childhood Predict Adulthood Tic Severity and Global Psychosocial Functioning in Tourette's Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloch, Michael H.; Sukhodolsky, Denis G.; Leckman, James F.; Schultz, Robert T.

    2006-01-01

    Background: Most children with Tourette's syndrome (TS) experience a significant decline in tic symptoms during adolescence. Currently no clinical measures have been identified that can predict whose tic symptoms will persist into adulthood. Patients with TS have deficits on neuropsychological tests involving fine-motor coordination and…

  6. Nuclear Waste Fund management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosselli, R.

    1984-01-01

    The Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 (NWPA) established two separate special bank accounts: the Nuclear Waste Fund (NWF) was established to finance all of the Federal Government activities associated with the disposal of High-Level Waste (HLW) or Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF). The Interim Storage Fund (ISF) is the financial mechanism for the provision of Federal Interim Storage capacity, not to exceed 1900 metric tons of SNF at civilian power reactors. The management of these funds is discussed. Since the two funds are identical in features and the ISF has not yet been activated, the author's remarks are confined to the Nuclear Waste Fund. Three points discussed include legislative features, current status, and planned activities

  7. A global off-line model of size-resolved aerosol microphysics: I. Model development and prediction of aerosol properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Spracklen

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A GLObal Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP has been developed as an extension to the TOMCAT 3-D Eulerian off-line chemical transport model. GLOMAP simulates the evolution of the global aerosol size distribution using a sectional two-moment scheme and includes the processes of aerosol nucleation, condensation, growth, coagulation, wet and dry deposition and cloud processing. We describe the results of a global simulation of sulfuric acid and sea spray aerosol. The model captures features of the aerosol size distribution that are well established from observations in the marine boundary layer and free troposphere. Modelled condensation nuclei (CN>3nm vary between about 250–500 cm-3 in remote marine boundary layer regions and are generally in good agreement with observations. Modelled continental CN concentrations are lower than observed, which may be due to lack of some primary aerosol sources or the neglect of nucleation mechanisms other than binary homogeneous nucleation of sulfuric acid-water particles. Remote marine CN concentrations increase to around 2000–10 000 cm (at standard temperature and pressure in the upper troposphere, which agrees with typical observed vertical profiles. Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN at 0.2% supersaturation vary between about 1000 cm-3 in polluted regions and between 10 and 500 cm-3 in the remote marine boundary layer. New particle formation through sulfuric acid-water binary nucleation occurs predominantly in the upper troposphere, but the model results show that these particles contribute greatly to aerosol concentrations in the marine boundary layer. For this sulfur-sea salt system it is estimated that sea spray emissions account for only ~10% of CCN in the tropical marine boundary layer, but between 20 and 75% in the mid-latitude Southern Ocean. In a run with only natural sulfate and sea salt emissions the global mean surface CN concentration is more than 60% of that from a run with 1985 anthropogenic

  8. An Analysis of the Mutual Fund Industry: Mutual Fund Investors, Mutual Fund Managers and Mutual Fund Companies

    OpenAIRE

    Fang, Jieyan

    2012-01-01

    In this dissertation I investigate the mutual fund industry, especially the three most important participants within this industry: mutual fund investors, mutual fund companies and mutual fund managers. The main research questions of this dissertation are: 1. Does rapid trading exist among German equity mutual fund investors? What are the determinants of rapid trading? Does rapid trading have a negative impact on mutual fund performance? 2. Do mutual fund investors, as a whole, have...

  9. An Experimental System for a Global Flood Prediction: From Satellite Precipitation Data to a Flood Inundation Map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Robert

    2007-01-01

    Floods impact more people globally than any other type of natural disaster. It has been established by experience that the most effective means to reduce the property damage and life loss caused by floods is the development of flood early warning systems. However, advances for such a system have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-. national-, continental-. or even global-scale areas) and time (hourly to daily). Particularly, insufficient in situ data, long delay in data transmission and absence of real-time data sharing agreements in many trans-boundary basins hamper the development of a real-time system at the regional to global scale. In many countries around the world, particularly in the tropics where rainfall and flooding co-exist in abundance, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data for those data scarce (ungauged) areas and trans-boundary basins. Satellite remote sensing data acquired and processed in real time can now provide the space-time information on rainfall fluxes needed to monitor severe flood events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models, which can be parameterized by a tailored geospatial database. An example that is a key to this progress is NASA's contribution to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), launched in November 1997. Hence, in an effort to evolve toward a more hydrologically-relevant flood alert system, this talk articulates a module-structured framework for quasi-global flood potential naming, that is 'up to date' with the state of the art on satellite rainfall estimation and the improved geospatial datasets. The system is modular in design with the flexibility that permits changes in the model structure and in the choice of components. Four major components included in the system are: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of

  10. Locus of control, self-efficacy, and the mediating effect of outcome control: predicting course-level and global outcomes in an academic context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Au, Evelyn W M

    2015-01-01

    The current study utilizes Skinner's framework to examine the unique contributions of internal locus of control, self-efficacy, and perceived outcome control over course performance on students' academic experiences. Undergraduate students (N = 225) took part in a longitudinal study and completed two surveys (Time 1: just before their mid-term exams; Time 2: just before their final exam in the same semester). Both locus of control and self-efficacy at Time 1 predicted course-level perceived control over course performance at Time 2. Student-level perceived control over course performance at Time 2 mediated the relationship between self-efficacy at Time 1 and course-level perseverance, course-specific stress, and course enjoyment at Time 2. For global perceived stress and life satisfaction measured at Time 2, both locus of control and self-efficacy at Time 1 had only a direct effect on global perceived stress at Time 2, but only self-efficacy at Time 1 predicted life satisfaction at Time 2. Both locus of control and self-efficacy uniquely contribute to students' academic experiences. Student-level perceived control plays an important mediating role between locus of control and self-efficacy at Time 1, and course-level perseverance, course-specific stress, and course enjoyment at Time 2.

  11. Global DNA methylation is altered by neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer and may predict response to treatment - A pilot study.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Tsang, J S

    2014-07-28

    In rectal cancer, not all tumours display a response to neoadjuvant treatment. An accurate predictor of response does not exist to guide patient-specific treatment. DNA methylation is a distinctive molecular pathway in colorectal carcinogenesis. Whether DNA methylation is altered by neoadjuvant treatment and a potential response predictor is unknown. We aimed to determine whether DNA methylation is altered by neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and to determine its role in predicting response to treatment.

  12. Globally-Applicable Predictive Wildfire Model   a Temporal-Spatial GIS Based Risk Analysis Using Data Driven Fuzzy Logic Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Dool, G.

    2017-11-01

    This study (van den Dool, 2017) is a proof of concept for a global predictive wildfire model, in which the temporal-spatial characteristics of wildfires are placed in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and the risk analysis is based on data-driven fuzzy logic functions. The data sources used in this model are available as global datasets, but subdivided into three pilot areas: North America (California/Nevada), Europe (Spain), and Asia (Mongolia), and are downscaled to the highest resolution (3-arc second). The GIS is constructed around three themes: topography, fuel availability and climate. From the topographical data, six derived sub-themes are created and converted to a fuzzy membership based on the catchment area statistics. The fuel availability score is a composite of four data layers: land cover, wood loads, biomass, biovolumes. As input for the climatological sub-model reanalysed daily averaged, weather-related data is used, which is accumulated to a global weekly time-window (to account for the uncertainty within the climatological model) and forms the temporal component of the model. The final product is a wildfire risk score (from 0 to 1) by week, representing the average wildfire risk in an area. To compute the potential wildfire risk the sub-models are combined usinga Multi-Criteria Approach, and the model results are validated against the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve.

  13. Ultrametricity in Fund of Funds Diversification

    OpenAIRE

    Susinno, Gabriele; Miceli, Maria Augusta

    2003-01-01

    Minimum market transparency requirements impose Hedge Fund (HF) managers to use the statement declared strategy in practice. However each declared strategy may actually origin a multiplicity of implemented management decisions. Is then the "actual "strategy the same as the "announced" strategy? Can the actual strategy be monitored or compared to the actual strategy of HF belonging to the same "announced" class? Can the announced or actual strategy be used as a quantitative argument in the fun...

  14. Final technical report. Can microbial functional traits predict the response and resilience of decomposition to global change?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allison, Steven D. [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)

    2015-09-24

    The role of specific micro-organisms in the carbon cycle, and their responses to environmental change, are unknown in most ecosystems. This knowledge gap limits scientists’ ability to predict how important ecosystem processes, like soil carbon storage and loss, will change with climate and other environmental factors. The investigators addressed this knowledge gap by transplanting microbial communities from different environments into new environments and measuring the response of community composition and carbon cycling over time. Using state-of-the-art sequencing techniques, computational tools, and nanotechnology, the investigators showed that microbial communities on decomposing plant material shift dramatically with natural and experimentally-imposed drought. Microbial communities also shifted in response to added nitrogen, but the effects were smaller. These changes had implications for carbon cycling, with lower rates of carbon loss under drought conditions, and changes in the efficiency of decomposition with nitrogen addition. Even when transplanted into the same conditions, microbial communities from different environments remained distinct in composition and functioning for up to one year. Changes in functioning were related to differences in enzyme gene content across different microbial groups. Computational approaches developed for this project allowed the conclusions to be tested more broadly in other ecosystems, and new computer models will facilitate the prediction of microbial traits and functioning across environments. The data and models resulting from this project benefit the public by improving the ability to predict how microbial communities and carbon cycling functions respond to climate change, nutrient enrichment, and other large-scale environmental changes.

  15. Globalization vs National Sovereignty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-09

    economic market or system in which prices are based on competition among private businesses and not controlled by a government.12 Global Commons...effects of globalization , work in different countries for years of their lives, conduct social networking and business through cyberspace. Civic...Qaeda. Today , The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria recruits and funds operations around the world benefiting from globalization . The central objectives

  16. Understaning the "funding effect"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oreskes, N.

    2016-12-01

    There is a long history of industry funding of scientific and engineering research in the USA. Much of this work has been of high quality. Research demonstrates, however, that corporate funding can represent a threat to scientific independence and integrity. Studies show that sponsors' interests can affect research results, particularly when sponsors have a strong interest in a particular research outcome. The effects may occur through the impact of subconscious bias on sampling, study design, data interpretation, and/or reporting of results. Corporate funding can also skew research toward investigating certain questions at the expense of others, downplaying the significance of adverse findings, and/or failing to report adverse results. Gifts can affect behavior, even when they are unrelated to research activities. These impacts that are so substantial that they have a name: "the funding effect."[i] Evidence shows that scientists who strive to be objective and fair-minded may nonetheless fall prey to the funding effect. In many cases, the challenges of corporate gifts and funding can be addressed through education and improved self-awareness, agreements that protect researchers' freedom to publish without sponsor approval, sensible disclosure policies, and reasonable sanctions for failures of disclosure. However, in some cases, it may be appropriate for researchers and scientific societies to decline funding.

  17. Public Audit of Local Area Development Fund in Meghalaya | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Public Audit of Local Area Development Fund in Meghalaya ... The team proposes to use the 2005 Right to Information Act as a tool to gather relevant information. ... adaptive water management: Innovative solutions from the Global South”.

  18. International fund flows: surges, sudden stops, and cyclicality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Suxiao

    2017-01-01

    International fund flows are cross-border investments in domestic equity and bond markets by global investment funds. They have increased dramatically since the 1990s and played an increasingly important role in the transmission of shocks. In this thesis, we examine the drivers of large changes in

  19. Funding of Vocational and Technical Education in Nigeria in Times ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Funding has been the bane of education in Nigeria. The global economic recession eventually came to complicate the matter. This notwithstanding, the focus of Vocational and Technical Education with regard to skills acquisition cannot be compromised. This paper x-rays the education funding pattern in Nigeria, assesses ...

  20. Are international fund flows related to exchange rate dynamics?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Suxiao; de Haan, Jakob; Scholtens, Bert

    2018-01-01

    Employing monthly data for 53 countries between 1996 and 2015, we investigate the relationship between international fund flows and exchange rate dynamics. We find strong co-movement between funds flows (as measured with the EPFR Global data base) and bilateral real exchange rates vis-à-vis the USD.

  1. CERN Pension Fund move

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2007-01-01

    The CERN Pension Fund has moved to new offices at the 5th floor of Building 5. The Benefits Service of the Fund will henceforth receive you in the offices: 5-5-017 - 5-5-021 - 5-5-023. We remind you that the office hours are: Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday from 10 am to 12 am and from 3 pm to 5 pm. The Fund would like to take this opportunity to warmly thank all the persons involved in the Removal.

  2. A PERFORMANCE COMPARISON OF HEDGE FUNDS, HEDGED MUTUAL FUNDS AND HEDGE FUND ETFS

    OpenAIRE

    Shenyan Gu; Tina Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Hedged mutual funds and hedge fund ETFs are new entrants to the market thatallow individual investors to invest in funds using hedge fund strategies.   In this paper, we study the performance of these two funds relative to the traditional hedge funds to see if the three asset classes are comparable investments. We use four performance measurement models, including CAPM, Fama French three factor model, Carhart four factor model and Fung and Hsieh eight factor model, to test the fund...

  3. The Adaptation Fund: a model for the future?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandani, Achala; Harmeling, Sven; Kaloga, Alpha Oumar

    2009-08-15

    With millions of the poor already facing the impacts of a changing climate, adaptation is a globally urgent – and costly – issue. The Adaptation Fund, created under the Kyoto Protocol, has unique features that could herald a new era of international cooperation on adaptation. Its governance structure, for instance, offers a fresh approach to fund management under the UN climate convention. The Fund's Board has also developed a constructive working atmosphere, and further progress is expected before the 2009 climate summit in Copenhagen. But developing countries' demand for adaptation funding is huge: conservative estimates put it at US$50 billion a year. The Fund's current structure and funding base are clearly only a first step towards filling that gap. And despite its significant progress over the last 18 months, many countries, particularly in the developed world, remain sceptical about this approach. Looking in detail at the Fund's evolution offers insight into its future potential as a model for adaptation finance.

  4. New era of satellite chlorophyll fluorescence and soil moisture observations leads to advances in the predictive understanding of global terrestrial coupled carbon-water cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, B.; Xue, Y.; Fisher, J.; Guo, W.

    2017-12-01

    The terrestrial carbon cycle and water cycle are coupled through a multitude of connected processes among soil, roots, leaves, and the atmosphere. The strength and sensitivity of these couplings are not yet well known at the global scale, which contributes to uncertainty in predicting the terrestrial water and carbon budgets. For the first time, we now have synchronous, high fidelity, global-scale satellite observations of critical terrestrial carbon and water cycle components: sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and soil moisture. We used these observations within the framework of a well-established global terrestrial biosphere model (Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version 2.0, SSiB2) to investigate carbon-water coupling processes. We updated SSiB2 to include a mechanistic representation of SIF and tested the sensitivity of model parameters to improve the simulation of both SIF and soil moisture with the ultimate objective of improving the first-order terrestrial carbon component, gross primary production (GPP). Although several vegetation parameters, such as leaf area index (LAI) and green leaf fraction, improved the simulated SIF, and several soil parameters, such as hydraulic conductivity, improved simulated soil moisture, their effects were mainly limited to their respective cycles. One parameter emerged as the key coupler between the carbon and water cycles: the wilting point. Updates to the wilting point significantly improved the simulations for both soil moisture and SIF, as well as GPP. This study demonstrates the value of synchronous global measurements of the terrestrial carbon and water cycles in improving the understanding of coupled carbon-water cycles.

  5. Integrating metabolic performance, thermal tolerance, and plasticity enables for more accurate predictions on species vulnerability to acute and chronic effects of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magozzi, Sarah; Calosi, Piero

    2015-01-01

    Predicting species vulnerability to global warming requires a comprehensive, mechanistic understanding of sublethal and lethal thermal tolerances. To date, however, most studies investigating species physiological responses to increasing temperature have focused on the underlying physiological traits of either acute or chronic tolerance in isolation. Here we propose an integrative, synthetic approach including the investigation of multiple physiological traits (metabolic performance and thermal tolerance), and their plasticity, to provide more accurate and balanced predictions on species and assemblage vulnerability to both acute and chronic effects of global warming. We applied this approach to more accurately elucidate relative species vulnerability to warming within an assemblage of six caridean prawns occurring in the same geographic, hence macroclimatic, region, but living in different thermal habitats. Prawns were exposed to four incubation temperatures (10, 15, 20 and 25 °C) for 7 days, their metabolic rates and upper thermal limits were measured, and plasticity was calculated according to the concept of Reaction Norms, as well as Q10 for metabolism. Compared to species occupying narrower/more stable thermal niches, species inhabiting broader/more variable thermal environments (including the invasive Palaemon macrodactylus) are likely to be less vulnerable to extreme acute thermal events as a result of their higher upper thermal limits. Nevertheless, they may be at greater risk from chronic exposure to warming due to the greater metabolic costs they incur. Indeed, a trade-off between acute and chronic tolerance was apparent in the assemblage investigated. However, the invasive species P. macrodactylus represents an exception to this pattern, showing elevated thermal limits and plasticity of these limits, as well as a high metabolic control. In general, integrating multiple proxies for species physiological acute and chronic responses to increasing

  6. Renewing the International Monetary Fund: A Review of the Issues

    OpenAIRE

    Danielle Lecavalier; Eric Santor

    2007-01-01

    Given the rapid and ongoing integration of the global economy, the International Monetary Fund needs to renew its role, governance structure, and functions if it is to maintain its relevance as the institution charged with promoting global financial stability. Lecavalier and Santor examine the areas of possible reform, including quota, voice, and representation; internal governance; surveillance; lending instruments; finances; and the Fund's role in low-income countries. They also review curr...

  7. LLNL-G3Dv3: Global P wave tomography model for improved regional and teleseismic travel time prediction: LLNL-G3DV3---GLOBAL P WAVE TOMOGRAPHY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simmons, N. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Myers, S. C. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Johannesson, G. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Matzel, E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2012-10-06

    [1] We develop a global-scale P wave velocity model (LLNL-G3Dv3) designed to accurately predict seismic travel times at regional and teleseismic distances simultaneously. The model provides a new image of Earth's interior, but the underlying practical purpose of the model is to provide enhanced seismic event location capabilities. The LLNL-G3Dv3 model is based on ∼2.8 millionP and Pnarrivals that are re-processed using our global multiple-event locator called Bayesloc. We construct LLNL-G3Dv3 within a spherical tessellation based framework, allowing for explicit representation of undulating and discontinuous layers including the crust and transition zone layers. Using a multiscale inversion technique, regional trends as well as fine details are captured where the data allow. LLNL-G3Dv3 exhibits large-scale structures including cratons and superplumes as well numerous complex details in the upper mantle including within the transition zone. Particularly, the model reveals new details of a vast network of subducted slabs trapped within the transition beneath much of Eurasia, including beneath the Tibetan Plateau. We demonstrate the impact of Bayesloc multiple-event location on the resulting tomographic images through comparison with images produced without the benefit of multiple-event constraints (single-event locations). We find that the multiple-event locations allow for better reconciliation of the large set of direct P phases recorded at 0–97° distance and yield a smoother and more continuous image relative to the single-event locations. Travel times predicted from a 3-D model are also found to be strongly influenced by the initial locations of the input data, even when an iterative inversion/relocation technique is employed.

  8. General IDRC Funding Guidelines

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Loretta Rocca

    Financial and Administrative Assessment ... the organization has independent legal status (or 'legal personality') and is capable of contracting ... Books and journal articles generated from IDRC-funded projects will be made accessible free of.

  9. Mutual aid fund commission

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2011-01-01

    The composition of the Board of the Mutual Aid Fund for 2011 is as follows: President: Pascal Droux Vice-president: Connie Potter Treasurer: Louis Pereira Deputy treasurer: Barbara Brugger Secretary: Sonia Casenove Deputy secretary: Isabelle Mardirossian Members: Christopher David Thomas   Jean-Claude Vialis (GAC member)   Marie-Luce Falipou   Gunilla Santiard (Jean-Claude Vialis’s alternate) The role of the Fund is to provide financial help to members of personnel and beneficiaries of the Pension Fund who are in need of exceptional financial assistance. All requests are treated in the strictest confidence. Should you wish to apply for aid from the Fund, kindly contact any member of the Board as given above or Social Services, tel.74479 – 73867.

  10. Funding begets biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahrends, Antje; Burgess, Neil David; Gereau, Roy E.

    2011-01-01

    Aim Effective conservation of biodiversity relies on an unbiased knowledge of its distribution. Conservation priority assessments are typically based on the levels of species richness, endemism and threat. Areas identified as important receive the majority of conservation investments, often...... facilitating further research that results in more species discoveries. Here, we test whether there is circularity between funding and perceived biodiversity, which may reinforce the conservation status of areas already perceived to be important while other areas with less initial funding may remain overlooked......, and variances decomposed in partial regressions. Cross-correlations are used to assess whether perceived biodiversity drives funding or vice versa. Results Funding explained 65% of variation in perceived biodiversity patterns – six times more variation than accounted for by 34 candidate environmental factors...

  11. Extended-range prediction trials using the global cloud/cloud-system resolving model NICAM and its new ocean-coupled version NICOCO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyakawa, Tomoki

    2017-04-01

    The global cloud/cloud-system resolving model NICAM and its new fully-coupled version NICOCO is run on one of the worlds top-tier supercomputers, the K computer. NICOCO couples the full-3D ocean component COCO of the general circulation model MIROC using a general-purpose coupler Jcup. We carried out multiple MJO simulations using NICAM and the new ocean-coupled version NICOCO to examine their extended-range MJO prediction skills and the impact of ocean coupling. NICAM performs excellently in terms of MJO prediction, maintaining a valid skill up to 27 days after the model is initialized (Miyakawa et al 2014). As is the case in most global models, ocean coupling frees the model from being anchored by the observed SST and allows the model climate to drift away further from reality compared to the atmospheric version of the model. Thus, it is important to evaluate the model bias, and in an initial value problem such as the seasonal extended-range prediction, it is essential to be able to distinguish the actual signal from the early transition of the model from the observed state to its own climatology. Since NICAM is a highly resource-demanding model, evaluation and tuning of the model climatology (order of years) is challenging. Here we focus on the initial 100 days to estimate the early drift of the model, and subsequently evaluate MJO prediction skills of NICOCO. Results show that in the initial 100 days, NICOCO forms a La-Nina like SST bias compared to observation, with a warmer Maritime Continent warm pool and a cooler equatorial central Pacific. The enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent associated with this bias project on to the real-time multi-variate MJO indices (RMM, Wheeler and Hendon 2004), and contaminates the MJO skill score. However, the bias does not appear to demolish the MJO signal severely. The model maintains a valid MJO prediction skill up to nearly 4 weeks when evaluated after linearly removing the early drift component estimated from

  12. Annual Pension Fund Update

    CERN Multimedia

    Pension Fund

    2011-01-01

    All members and beneficiaries of the Pension Fund are invited to attend the Annual Pension Fund Update to be held in the CERN Council Chamber on Tuesday 20 September 2011 from 10-00 to 12-00 a.m. Copies of the 2010 Financial Statements are available from departmental secretariats. Coffee and croissants will be served prior to the meeting as of 9-30 a.m.

  13. Pension Fund Investment Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Zvi Bodie

    1988-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to survey what is known about the investment policy of pension funds. Pension fund investment policy depends critically on the type of plan: defined contribution versus defined benefit. For defined contribution plans investment policy is not much different than it is for an individual deciding how to invest the money in an Individual Retirement Account (IRA). The guiding principle is efficient diversification, that is, achieving the maximum expected return for any...

  14. PENSION FUND - ELECTIONS

    CERN Multimedia

    2000-01-01

    This candidature has been duly registered and is hereby presented in accordance with paragraph 6.h of the Regulations for Elections to the Governing Board of the Pension Fund.   Candidate: Name: RANJARD First Name: Florence Having been a member of the Governing Board of the Pension Fund since 1983 as Guy Maurin’s alternate, I am standing for a further 3-year term of office. Over the past few years work has concentrated essentially on following items: Monitoring of the work of the fund managers and their performances. The three-yearly study of the Fund’s actuarial situation. The pension guarantees ­ second phase. The Fund is approaching its maturity: the level of benefits exceeds contributions. In this context it has to strike a suitable balance between management of the risk from a dynamic investment policy, while by a prudent policy avoiding any significant loss of its capital. These will be my concerns within the Governing Board of the Pension Fund if you give me your support.

  15. The 10 largest public and philanthropic funders of health research in the world: what they fund and how they distribute their funds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Viergever, R.F.; Hendriks, T.C.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Little is known about who the main public and philanthropic funders of health research are globally, what they fund and how they decide what gets funded. This study aims to identify the 10 largest public and philanthropic health research funding organizations in the world, to report on

  16. Performance of mutual funds in european countries

    OpenAIRE

    Γκογκάκη, Ελεωνόρα

    2012-01-01

    In this thesis, the performance of 220 open-end domestic equity mutual funds of european countries (from 'weak' and 'strong' economies) is analyzed for an eight- year period from 1st January 2004 until 31st December 2011, which is then split in two four-year sub periods in order to examine their performance prior to the global financial crisis and after its burst in 2008. In order to compare the mutual funds' performance to that of each country's market, it used as benchmarks the countries' m...

  17. Socially responsible investments in mutual funds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Funaru, M.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to add contribution to the socially responsible investments (from now on called “SRI” research by examining the significance of this type of investment in terms of ethical or financial prior behaviour. Using the sample of European market of socially responsible investments funds, we first explore the SRI market dimension compared to the global data on SRI. We also investigate whether the ethical recognition is more important rather than the financial performance. Applied to the European social responsible investment fund market, the paper investigates the difference between these two aspects of behaviour and underlies the importance of socially responsible investments in promoting a sustainable development.

  18. Funding for international family planning attacked.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaeser, L

    1997-08-01

    US funding for foreign assistance has been jeopardized in recent years in the context of dwindling public support for foreign aid. To stymie the provision of international family planning program assistance and services overseas, Congressional opponents of family planning and abortion are offering amendments to foreign aid legislation at every possible opportunity. State Department reauthorization legislation is the current target of family planning opponents' efforts. Reauthorization is the process by which Congress indicates its ongoing support for a program, makes any necessary changes, and sets new funding ceilings. The global gag rule joined UNFPA funding cuts on the 1997 State Department reauthorization bill, H.R. 1757, which passed the House of Representatives in early June. If successfully appended to the State Department bill, the gag rule would prevent the US from funding any organization in a developing country which provides legal abortion services or communicates with its government on abortion-related policy, regardless of whether that organization used its own non-US funds. These restrictions and cuts to international family planning program assistance could adversely affect family planning programs, leading to less contraceptive use and higher rates of abortion, maternal morbidity, and maternal mortality. President Bill Clinton has promised to veto the bill if both houses of Congress accept the restrictions. These issues will probably arise on the annual appropriations legislation which funds US operations overseas.

  19. Prediction of gas/particle partitioning of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in global air: A theoretical study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.-F.; Ma, W.-L.; Yang, M.

    2015-02-01

    Gas/particle (G/P) partitioning of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) is an important process that primarily governs their atmospheric fate, long-range atmospheric transport, and their routes of entering the human body. All previous studies on this issue are hypothetically based on equilibrium conditions, the results of which do not predict results from monitoring studies well in most cases. In this study, a steady-state model instead of an equilibrium-state model for the investigation of the G/P partitioning behavior of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) was established, and an equation for calculating the partition coefficients under steady state (KPS) of PBDEs (log KPS = log KPE + logα) was developed in which an equilibrium term (log KPE = log KOA + logfOM -11.91 where fOM is organic matter content of the particles) and a non-equilibrium term (log α, caused by dry and wet depositions of particles), both being functions of log KOA (octanol-air partition coefficient), are included. It was found that the equilibrium is a special case of steady state when the non-equilibrium term equals zero. A criterion to classify the equilibrium and non-equilibrium status of PBDEs was also established using two threshold values of log KOA, log KOA1, and log KOA2, which divide the range of log KOA into three domains: equilibrium, non-equilibrium, and maximum partition domain. Accordingly, two threshold values of temperature t, tTH1 when log KOA = log KOA1 and tTH2 when log KOA = log KOA2, were identified, which divide the range of temperature also into the same three domains for each PBDE congener. We predicted the existence of the maximum partition domain (the values of log KPS reach a maximum constant of -1.53) that every PBDE congener can reach when log KOA ≥ log KOA2, or t ≤ tTH2. The novel equation developed in this study was applied to predict the G/P partition coefficients of PBDEs for our Chinese persistent organic pollutants (POPs) Soil and Air Monitoring

  20. Empirically Based Composite Fracture Prediction Model From the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Postmenopausal Women (GLOW)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Compston, Juliet E.; Chapurlat, Roland D.; Pfeilschifter, Johannes; Cooper, Cyrus; Hosmer, David W.; Adachi, Jonathan D.; Anderson, Frederick A.; Díez-Pérez, Adolfo; Greenspan, Susan L.; Netelenbos, J. Coen; Nieves, Jeri W.; Rossini, Maurizio; Watts, Nelson B.; Hooven, Frederick H.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; March, Lyn; Roux, Christian; Saag, Kenneth G.; Siris, Ethel S.; Silverman, Stuart; Gehlbach, Stephen H.

    2014-01-01

    Context: Several fracture prediction models that combine fractures at different sites into a composite outcome are in current use. However, to the extent individual fracture sites have differing risk factor profiles, model discrimination is impaired. Objective: The objective of the study was to improve model discrimination by developing a 5-year composite fracture prediction model for fracture sites that display similar risk profiles. Design: This was a prospective, observational cohort study. Setting: The study was conducted at primary care practices in 10 countries. Patients: Women aged 55 years or older participated in the study. Intervention: Self-administered questionnaires collected data on patient characteristics, fracture risk factors, and previous fractures. Main Outcome Measure: The main outcome is time to first clinical fracture of hip, pelvis, upper leg, clavicle, or spine, each of which exhibits a strong association with advanced age. Results: Of four composite fracture models considered, model discrimination (c index) is highest for an age-related fracture model (c index of 0.75, 47 066 women), and lowest for Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) major fracture and a 10-site model (c indices of 0.67 and 0.65). The unadjusted increase in fracture risk for an additional 10 years of age ranges from 80% to 180% for the individual bones in the age-associated model. Five other fracture sites not considered for the age-associated model (upper arm/shoulder, rib, wrist, lower leg, and ankle) have age associations for an additional 10 years of age from a 10% decrease to a 60% increase. Conclusions: After examining results for 10 different bone fracture sites, advanced age appeared the single best possibility for uniting several different sites, resulting in an empirically based composite fracture risk model. PMID:24423345

  1. Left ventricular global longitudinal strain is predictive of all-cause mortality independent of aortic stenosis severity and ejection fraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Arnold C T; Prihadi, Edgard A; Antoni, M Louisa; Bertini, Matteo; Ewe, See Hooi; Ajmone Marsan, Nina; Leung, Dominic Y; Delgado, Victoria; Bax, Jeroen J

    2017-07-28

    Left ventricular (LV) global longitudinal strain (GLS) may identify subclinical myocardial dysfunction in patients with aortic stenosis (AS). The aims of the present retrospective single centre study were to determine the independent prognostic value of LV GLS over LV ejection fraction (EF) and the role of LV GLS to further risk stratify severe AS patients before aortic valve replacement. A total of 688 patients (median age 72 years, 61.2% men) with mild (n = 130), moderate (n = 264) and severe AS (n = 294) were included. LV GLS was determined by 2D speckle tracking echocardiography. A total of 114 (16.6%) patients died before surgery during the study. When patients with severe AS and normal LVEF were dichotomized based on the median LV GLS value (-14.0%), patients with normal LVEF and 'preserved' LV GLS of ≤ -14% had significantly higher survival than patients with 'impaired' LV GLS of > -14%. There was no difference in survival between patients with normal LVEF but 'impaired' LV GLS ( > -14%) and patients with impaired LVEF (log-rank P = 0.34). LV GLS was independently associated with all-cause mortality on multivariable Cox regression analysis (hazard ratio 1.17, 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.26; P optimal timing of aortic valve replacement. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2017. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We distributed monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003-2009 on a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) active fire observations. We found that patterns of daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of bunting in savannas. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top-down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

  3. Daily and 3-hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We disaggregated monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003.2009 to a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ]derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) active fire observations. Daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of burning in savannas. These patterns were consistent with earlier field and modeling work characterizing fire behavior dynamics in different ecosystems. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES WF_ABBA active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top ]down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from

  4. An adaptive least-squares global sensitivity method and application to a plasma-coupled combustion prediction with parametric correlation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Kunkun; Massa, Luca; Wang, Jonathan; Freund, Jonathan B.

    2018-05-01

    We introduce an efficient non-intrusive surrogate-based methodology for global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification. Modified covariance-based sensitivity indices (mCov-SI) are defined for outputs that reflect correlated effects. The overall approach is applied to simulations of a complex plasma-coupled combustion system with disparate uncertain parameters in sub-models for chemical kinetics and a laser-induced breakdown ignition seed. The surrogate is based on an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) expansion, such as widely used in statistics, with orthogonal polynomials representing the ANOVA subspaces and a polynomial dimensional decomposition (PDD) representing its multi-dimensional components. The coefficients of the PDD expansion are obtained using a least-squares regression, which both avoids the direct computation of high-dimensional integrals and affords an attractive flexibility in choosing sampling points. This facilitates importance sampling using a Bayesian calibrated posterior distribution, which is fast and thus particularly advantageous in common practical cases, such as our large-scale demonstration, for which the asymptotic convergence properties of polynomial expansions cannot be realized due to computation expense. Effort, instead, is focused on efficient finite-resolution sampling. Standard covariance-based sensitivity indices (Cov-SI) are employed to account for correlation of the uncertain parameters. Magnitude of Cov-SI is unfortunately unbounded, which can produce extremely large indices that limit their utility. Alternatively, mCov-SI are then proposed in order to bound this magnitude ∈ [ 0 , 1 ]. The polynomial expansion is coupled with an adaptive ANOVA strategy to provide an accurate surrogate as the union of several low-dimensional spaces, avoiding the typical computational cost of a high-dimensional expansion. It is also adaptively simplified according to the relative contribution of the different polynomials to the total

  5. Bryozoans as indicators of global change: predictable shifts in morphology and carbonate mineralogy in response to warming and ocean acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swezey, D. S.; Bean, J. R.; Ninokawa, A. T.; Sanford, E.

    2014-12-01

    Recent studies have documented variation in skeletal structure and carbonate mineralogy across a broad range of marine invertebrate taxa. Intraspecific changes in growth, morphology, and carbonate composition may occur in response to local and global changes in temperature, carbonate saturation state, and nutrient availability. Recurring upwelling along the west coast of the United States creates an alongshore mosaic of Ocean Acidification (OA), which may induce plastic responses and/or select for adaptive skeletal construction that can withstand pCO2 and temperature changes. Calcifying bryozoans provide a unique study system for investigating carbonate precipitation under variable conditions. Using a newly constructed flow-through CO2 control apparatus, we tested whether three laboratory-reared populations of the bryozoans Membranipora serrilamella, M. tuberculata and Celleporella cornuta showed differences in growth, calcification, and skeletal composition in response to simulated future OA conditions. Under elevated pCO2 (1200 μatm), bryozoans showed no significant differences in growth rate (new zooids added) compared to clones reared under current atmospheric values. However, C. cornuta colonies raised under high CO2 were significantly lighter, with less carbonate per zooid compared to colonies grown in present-day conditions (400 μatm). Scanning electron microscopy revealed that elevated pCO2 led to dissolution of bryozoan skeletons, which did not occur at 400 μatm. Structural changes in M. tuberculata and C. cornuta colonies may be related to the dissolution of high magnesium calcite skeletal components. Analyses of bryozoan morphological responses along with environmental proxies (δ13C, δ18O, and Mg/Ca ratios) could yield high resolution records of temperature and pH, which could be used to help reconstruct environmental variation along the California coast.

  6. Artisanal Fisheries Research: A Need for Globalization?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira Júnior, José Gilmar C; Silva, Luana P S; Malhado, Ana C M; Batista, Vandick S; Fabré, Nidia N; Ladle, Richard J

    2016-01-01

    Given limited funds for research and widespread degradation of ecosystems, environmental scientists should geographically target their studies where they will be most effective. However, in academic areas such as conservation and natural resource management there is often a mismatch between the geographic foci of research effort/funding and research needs. The former frequently being focused in the developed world while the latter is greater in the biodiverse countries of the Global South. Here, we adopt a bibliometric approach to test this hypothesis using research on artisanal fisheries. Such fisheries occur throughout the world, but are especially prominent in developing countries where they are important for supporting local livelihoods, food security and poverty alleviation. Moreover, most artisanal fisheries in the Global South are unregulated and unmonitored and are in urgent need of science-based management to ensure future sustainability. Our results indicate that, as predicted, global research networks and centres of knowledge production are predominantly located in developed countries, indicating a global mismatch between research needs and capacity.