WorldWideScience

Sample records for predicting coupled ocean-atmosphere

  1. The Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hodur, Richard M; Hong, Xiaodong; Doyle, James D; Pullen, Julie; Cummings, James; Martin, Paul; Rennick, Mary Alice

    2002-01-01

    ... of the Couple Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). The goal of this modeling project is to gain predictive skill in simulating the ocean and atmosphere at high resolution on time-scales of hours to several days...

  2. South African seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Evidence is presented that coupled ocean-atmosphere models can already outscore computationally less expensive atmospheric models. However, if the atmospheric models are forced with highly skillful SST predictions, they may still be a very strong...

  3. Initial conditions and ENSO prediction using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larow, T. E.; Krishnamurti, T. N.

    1998-01-01

    A coupled ocean-atmosphere initialization scheme using Newtonian relaxation has been developed for the Florida State University coupled ocean-atmosphere global general circulation model. The initialization scheme is used to initialize the coupled model for seasonal forecasting the boreal summers of 1987 and 1988. The atmosphere model is a modified version of the Florida State University global spectral model, resolution T-42. The ocean general circulation model consists of a slightly modified version of the Hamburg's climate group model described in Latif (1987) and Latif et al. (1993). The coupling is synchronous with information exchanged every two model hours. Using ECMWF atmospheric daily analysis and observed monthly mean SSTs, two, 1-year, time-dependent, Newtonian relaxation were performed using the coupled model prior to conducting the seasonal forecasts. The coupled initializations were conducted from 1 June 1986 to 1 June 1987 and from 1 June 1987 to 1 June 1988. Newtonian relaxation was applied to the prognostic atmospheric vorticity, divergence, temperature and dew point depression equations. In the ocean model the relaxation was applied to the surface temperature. Two, 10-member ensemble integrations were conducted to examine the impact of the coupled initialization on the seasonal forecasts. The initial conditions used for the ensembles are the ocean's final state after the initialization and the atmospheric initial conditions are ECMWF analysis. Examination of the SST root mean square error and anomaly correlations between observed and forecasted SSTs in the Niño-3 and Niño-4 regions for the 2 seasonal forecasts, show closer agreement between the initialized forecast than two, 10-member non-initialized ensemble forecasts. The main conclusion here is that a single forecast with the coupled initialization outperforms, in SST anomaly prediction, against each of the control forecasts (members of the ensemble) which do not include such an initialization

  4. Thermodynamic ocean-atmosphere Coupling and the Predictability of Nordeste rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Giannini, A.

    2003-04-01

    The interannual variability of rainfall in the northeastern region of Brazil, or Nordeste, is known to be very strongly correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) variability, of Atlantic and Pacific origin. For this reason the potential predictability of Nordeste rainfall is high. The current generation of state-of-the-art atmospheric models can replicate the observed rainfall variability with high skill when forced with the observed record of SST variability. The correlation between observed and modeled indices of Nordeste rainfall, in the AMIP-style integrations with two such models (NSIPP and CCM3) analyzed here, is of the order of 0.8, i.e. the models explain about 2/3 of the observed variability. Assuming that thermodynamic, ocean-atmosphere heat exchange plays the dominant role in tropical Atlantic SST variability on the seasonal to interannual time scale, we analyze its role in Nordeste rainfall predictability using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. Predictability experiments initialized with observed December SST show that thermodynamic coupling plays a significant role in enhancing the persistence of SST anomalies, both in the tropical Pacific and in the tropical Atlantic. We show that thermodynamic coupling is sufficient to provide fairly accurate forecasts of tropical Atlantic SST in the boreal spring that are significantly better than the persistence forecasts. The consequences for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall are analyzed.

  5. Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling Processes Affecting Predictability in the Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, A. J.; Subramanian, A. C.; Seo, H.; Eliashiv, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Predictions of the ocean and atmosphere are often sensitive to coupling at the air-sea interface in ways that depend on the temporal and spatial scales of the target fields. We will discuss several aspects of these types of coupled interactions including oceanic and atmospheric forecast applications. For oceanic mesoscale eddies, the coupling can influence the energetics of the oceanic flow itself. For Madden-Julian Oscillation onset, the coupling timestep should resolve the diurnal cycle to properly raise time-mean SST and latent heat flux prior to deep convection. For Atmospheric River events, the evolving SST field can alter the trajectory and intensity of precipitation anomalies along the California coast. Improvements in predictions will also rely on identifying and alleviating sources of biases in the climate states of the coupled system. Surprisingly, forecast skill can also be improved by enhancing stochastic variability in the atmospheric component of coupled models as found in a multiscale ensemble modeling approach.

  6. South African mid-summer seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available . 2000; Goddard and Mason, 2002). Such a so-called two-tiered procedure to predict the outcome of the rainfall season has been employed in South Africa for a number of years already (e.g., Landman et al., 2001). The advent of fully coupled ocean...

  7. On Verifying Currents and Other Features in the Hawaiian Islands Region Using Fully Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System Compared to Global Ocean Model and Ocean Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessen, P. G.; Chen, S.

    2014-12-01

    This poster introduces and evaluates features concerning the Hawaii, USA region using the U.S. Navy's fully Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS-OS™) coupled to the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). It also outlines some challenges in verifying ocean currents in the open ocean. The system is evaluated using in situ ocean data and initial forcing fields from the operational global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Verification shows difficulties in modelling downstream currents off the Hawaiian islands (Hawaii's wake). Comparing HYCOM to NCOM current fields show some displacement of small features such as eddies. Generally, there is fair agreement from HYCOM to NCOM in salinity and temperature fields. There is good agreement in SSH fields.

  8. Land-Ocean-Atmospheric Coupling Associated with Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, A. K.; Singh, R. P.; Kumar, S.; Cervone, G.; Kafatos, M.; Zlotnicki, J.

    2007-12-01

    Earthquakes are well known to occur along the plate boundaries and also on the stable shield. The recent studies have shown existence of strong coupling between land-ocean-atmospheric parameters associated with the earthquakes. We have carried out detailed analysis of multi sensor data (optical and microwave remote) to show existence of strong coupling between land-ocean-atmospheric parameters associated with the earthquakes with focal depth up to 30 km and magnitude greater than 5.5. Complimentary nature of various land, ocean and atmospheric parameters will be demonstrated in getting an early warning information about an impending earthquake.

  9. Ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model development at SAWS: description and diagnosis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Beraki, A

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces the South African Weather Service's coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The paper also demonstrates the advances made in configuring an operational coupled ocean-atmosphere model in South Africa for seasonal forecast production...

  10. Some sensitivities of a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stockdale, T.; Latif, M.; Burgers, G.; Wolff, J.O.

    1994-01-01

    A coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM is being developed for use in seasonal forecasting. As part of the development work, a number of experiments have been made to explore some of the sensitivities of the coupled model system. The overall heat balance of the tropics is found to be very sensitive to convective cloud cover. Adjusting the cloud parameterization to produce stable behaviour of the coupled model also leads to better agreement between model radiative fluxes and satellite data. A further sensitivity is seen to changes in low-level marine stratus, which is under-represented in the initial model experiments. An increase in this cloud in the coupled model produces a small improvement in both the global mean state and the phase of the east Pacific annual cycle. The computational expense of investigating such small changes is emphasized. An indication of model sensitivity to surface albedo is also presented. The sensitivity of the coupled GCM to initial conditions is investigated. The model is very sensitive, with tiny perturbations able to determine El Nino or non-El Nino conditions just six months later. This large sensitivity may be related to the relatively weak amplitude of the model ENSO cycle. (orig.)

  11. GFDL CM2.1 Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Water ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. GFDL CM2.1 Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Water Hosing Experiment with 1 Sv equivalent of Freshening Control Expt: 100 yrs After Hosing: 300 yrs.

  12. Dynamical seasonal climate prediction using an ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model developed in partnership between South Africa and the IRI

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Beraki, AF

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available dedicated a large amount of resources to utilize Atmospheric General Circulation Models 66 (AGCMs) as operational seasonal forecast tools (Landman et al. 2012). These models 67 have all been developed outside of South Africa, but have been used extensively... Niña seasons (Landman et al. 2012; Landman and Beraki 2012). As noted above, coupled 99 models are largely assumed or hypothesized to represent the state of the art of seasonal 100 forecasting. In fact, it has been conclusively shown through...

  13. Medicanes in an ocean-atmosphere coupled regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhtar, N.; Brauch, J.; Dobler, A.; Béranger, K.; Ahrens, B.

    2014-08-01

    So-called medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes) are meso-scale, marine, and warm-core Mediterranean cyclones that exhibit some similarities to tropical cyclones. The strong cyclonic winds associated with medicanes threaten the highly populated coastal areas around the Mediterranean basin. To reduce the risk of casualties and overall negative impacts, it is important to improve the understanding of medicanes with the use of numerical models. In this study, we employ an atmospheric limited-area model (COSMO-CLM) coupled with a one-dimensional ocean model (1-D NEMO-MED12) to simulate medicanes. The aim of this study is to assess the robustness of the coupled model in simulating these extreme events. For this purpose, 11 historical medicane events are simulated using the atmosphere-only model, COSMO-CLM, and coupled model, with different setups (horizontal atmospheric grid spacings of 0.44, 0.22, and 0.08°; with/without spectral nudging, and an ocean grid spacing of 1/12°). The results show that at high resolution, the coupled model is able to not only simulate most of medicane events but also improve the track length, core temperature, and wind speed of simulated medicanes compared to the atmosphere-only simulations. The results suggest that the coupled model is more proficient for systemic and detailed studies of historical medicane events, and that this model can be an effective tool for future projections.

  14. Longitudinal biases in the Seychelles Dome simulated by 35 ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagura, Motoki; Sasaki, Wataru; Tozuka, Tomoki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Behera, Swadhin K.; Yamagata, Toshio

    2013-02-01

    Seychelles Dome refers to the shallow climatological thermocline in the southwestern Indian Ocean, where ocean wave dynamics efficiently affect sea surface temperature, allowing sea surface temperature anomalies to be predicted up to 1-2 years in advance. Accurate reproduction of the dome by ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) is essential for successful seasonal predictions in the Indian Ocean. This study examines the Seychelles Dome as simulated by 35 CGCMs, including models used in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Among the 35 CGCMs, 14 models erroneously produce an upwelling dome in the eastern half of the basin whereas the observed Seychelles Dome is located in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean. The annual mean Ekman pumping velocity in these models is found to be almost zero in the southern off-equatorial region. This result is inconsistent with observations, in which Ekman upwelling acts as the main cause of the Seychelles Dome. In the models reproducing an eastward-displaced dome, easterly biases are prominent along the equator in boreal summer and fall, which result in shallow thermocline biases along the Java and Sumatra coasts via Kelvin wave dynamics and a spurious upwelling dome in the region. Compared to the CMIP3 models, the CMIP5 models are even worse in simulating the dome longitudes.

  15. Coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Modeling of the Mount Pinatubo Impact on the Red Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenchikov, G. L.; Osipov, S.

    2017-12-01

    The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo had dramatic effects on the regional climate in the Middle East. Though acknowledged, these effects have not been thoroughly studied. To fill this gap and to advance understanding of the mechanisms that control variability in the Middle East's regional climate, we simulated the impact of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption using a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling system set for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) domain. We used the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) framework, which couples the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model with the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). We modified the WRF model to account for the radiative effect of volcanic aerosols. Our coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations verified by available observations revealed strong perturbations in the energy balance of the Red Sea, which drove thermal and circulation responses. Our modeling approach allowed us to separate changes in the atmospheric circulation caused by the impact of the volcano from direct regional radiative cooling from volcanic aerosols. The atmospheric circulation effect was significantly stronger than the direct volcanic aerosols effect. We found that the Red Sea response to the Pinatubo eruption was stronger and qualitatively different from that of the global ocean system. Our results suggest that major volcanic eruptions significantly affect the climate in the Middle East and the Red Sea and should be carefully taken into account in assessments of long-term climate variability and warming trends in MENA and the Red Sea.

  16. Coupled ocean-atmosphere surface variability and its climate impacts in the tropical Atlantic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontaine, B.; Janicot, Serge; Roucou, P.

    This study examines time evolution and statistical relationships involving the two leading ocean-atmosphere coupled modes of variability in the tropical Atlantic and some climate anomalies over the tropical 120°W-60°W region using selected historical files (75-y near global SSTs and precipitation over land), more recent observed data (30-y SST and pseudo wind stress in the tropical Atlantic) and reanalyses from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis System on the period 1968-1997: surface air temperature, sea level pressure, moist static energy content at 850 hPa, precipitable water and precipitation. The first coupled mode detected through singular value decomposition of the SST and pseudo wind-stress data over the tropical Atlantic (30°N-20°S) expresses a modulation in the thermal transequatorial gradient of SST anomalies conducted by one month leading wind-stress anomalies mainly in the tropical north Atlantic during northern winter and fall. It features a slight dipole structure in the meridional plane. Its time variability is dominated by a quasi-decadal signal well observed in the last 20-30 ys and, when projected over longer-term SST data, in the 1920s and 1930s but with shorter periods. The second coupled mode is more confined to the south-equatorial tropical Atlantic in the northern summer and explains considerably less wind-stress/SST cross-covariance. Its time series features an interannual variability dominated by shorter frequencies with increased variance in the 1960s and 1970s before 1977. Correlations between these modes and the ENSO-like Nino3 index lead to decreasing amplitude of thermal anomalies in the tropical Atlantic during warm episodes in the Pacific. This could explain the nonstationarity of meridional anomaly gradients on seasonal and interannual time scales. Overall the relationships between the oceanic component of the coupled modes and the climate anomaly patterns denote thermodynamical

  17. Mechanism of climate change over South America during the LGM in coupled Ocean- Atmosphere model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodri, M.

    2006-12-01

    On a regional perspective the database of proxy information for South America during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) shows large and regionally extensive changes of the mean climate and vegetation types over the Amazon basin. In some instances these changes were associated with decrease in the mean precipitation amount (and most probably in moist deep convection) over the Amazonian and South East Brazil monsoon regions and wetter mean conditions in present day drought-prone regions such as Northeast of Brazil (Nordeste). These changes have been interpreted as local responses to shift in the mean position and intensity of the Atlantic ITCZ due to glacial extratropical forcings or to changes in the South American Monsoons. However there are still two issues is the path to further understand the mechanism of climate change over South America during the LGM. The first is incomplete knowledge in both the modeling and observational communities of how the moist deep convection over the Amazonian region respond to glacial boundary condition and how this changes might interact with the meridional shift of rainfall over Nordeste and Atlantic Ocean. The second is our understanding of how ocean-atmosphere changes that do occur in the tropical Pacific region influence the climate of the remainder of the planet and on a regional way over South America. Using PMIP-2 coupled Ocean-Atmosphere simulations for LGM and comparison to paleodata we show that hydrological cycle changes over the Amazon basin might be independent of their Atlantic Ocean counterpart, while teleconnections with Pacific Ocean might have played a significant role in the observed changes over tropical South America.

  18. Secular trends and climate drift in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covey, Curt; Gleckler, Peter J.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Bader, David C.

    2006-02-01

    Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (coupled GCMs) with interactive sea ice are the primary tool for investigating possible future global warming and numerous other issues in climate science. A long-standing problem with such models is that when different components of the physical climate system are linked together, the simulated climate can drift away from observation unless constrained by ad hoc adjustments to interface fluxes. However, 11 modern coupled GCMs, including three that do not employ flux adjustments, behave much better in this respect than the older generation of models. Surface temperature trends in control run simulations (with external climate forcing such as solar brightness and atmospheric carbon dioxide held constant) are small compared with observed trends, which include 20th century climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural factors. Sea ice changes in the models are dominated by interannual variations. Deep ocean temperature and salinity trends are small enough for model control runs to extend over 1000 simulated years or more, but trends in some regions, most notably the Arctic, differ substantially among the models and may be problematic. Methods used to initialize coupled GCMs can mitigate climate drift but cannot eliminate it. Lengthy "spin-ups" of models, made possible by increasing computer power, are one reason for the improvements this paper documents.

  19. The stability of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schiller, A. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Mikolajewicz, U. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Voss, R. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)

    1996-02-01

    The stability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation against meltwater input is investigated in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The meltwater input to the Labrador Sea is increased linearly for 250 years to a maximum input of 0.625 Sv and then reduced again to 0 (both instantaneously and slowly decreasing over 250 years). The resulting freshening forces a shutdown of the formation of North Atlantic deepwater and a subsequent reversal of the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic, filling the deep Atlantic with Antarctic bottom water. The change in the overturning pattern causes a drastic reduction of the Atlantic northward heat transport, resulting in a strong cooling with maximum amplitude over the northern North Atlantic and a southward shift of the sea-ice margin in the Atlantic. Due to the increased meridional temperature gradient, the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone is displaced southward and the westerlies in the northern hemisphere gain strength. We identify four main feedbacks affecting the stability of the thermohaline circulation: the change in the overturning circulation of the Atlantic leads to longer residence times of the surface waters in high northern latitudes, which allows them to accumulate more precipitation and runoff from the continents, which results in an increased stability in the North Atlantic.

  20. Monte Carlo climate change forecasts with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cubasch, U.; Santer, B.D.; Hegerl, G.; Hoeck, H.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Mikolajwicz, U.; Stoessel, A.; Voss, R.

    1992-01-01

    The Monte Carlo approach, which has increasingly been used during the last decade in the field of extended range weather forecasting, has been applied for climate change experiments. Four integrations with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model have been started from different initial conditions, but with the same greenhouse gas forcing according to the IPCC scenario A. All experiments have been run for a period of 50 years. The results indicate that the time evolution of the global mean warming depends strongly on the initial state of the climate system. It can vary between 6 and 31 years. The Monte Carlo approach delivers information about both the mean response and the statistical significance of the response. While the individual members of the ensemble show a considerable variation in the climate change pattern of temperature after 50 years, the ensemble mean climate change pattern closely resembles the pattern obtained in a 100 year integration and is, at least over most of the land areas, statistically significant. The ensemble averaged sea-level change due to thermal expansion is significant in the global mean and locally over wide regions of the Pacific. The hydrological cycle is also significantly enhanced in the global mean, but locally the changes in precipitation and soil moisture are masked by the variability of the experiments. (orig.)

  1. Longitudinal Biases in the Seychelles Dome Simulated by 34 Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled General Circulation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagura, M.; Sasaki, W.; Tozuka, T.; Luo, J.; Behera, S. K.; Yamagata, T.

    2012-12-01

    The upwelling dome of the southern tropical Indian Ocean is examined by using simulated results from 34 ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) including those from the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Among the current set of the 34 CGCMs, 12 models erroneously produce the upwelling dome in the eastern half of the basin while the observed Seychelles Dome is located in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean (Figure 1). The annual mean Ekman pumping velocity is almost zero in the southern off-equatorial region in these models. This is in contrast with the observations that show Ekman upwelling as the cause of the Seychelles Dome. In the models that produce the dome in the eastern basin, the easterly biases are prominent along the equator in boreal summer and fall that cause shallow thermocline biases along the Java and Sumatra coasts via Kelvin wave dynamics and result in a spurious upwelling dome there. In addition, these models tend to overestimate (underestimate) the magnitude of annual (semiannual) cycle of thermocline depth variability in the dome region, which is another consequence of the easterly wind biases in boreal summer-fall. Compared to the CMIP3 models (Yokoi et al. 2009), the CMIP5 models are even worse in simulating the dome longitudes and magnitudes of annual and semiannual cycles of thermocline depth variability in the dome region. Considering the increasing need to understand regional impacts of climate modes, these results may give serious caveats to interpretation of model results and help in further model developments.; Figure 1: The longitudes of the shallowest annual-mean D20 in 5°S-12°S. The open and filled circles are for the observations and the CGCMs, respectively.

  2. Indian Ocean and Indian summer monsoon: relationships without ENSO in ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crétat, Julien; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sébastien; Sooraj, K. P.; Roxy, Mathew Koll

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between the Indian Ocean and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and their respective influence over the Indo-Western North Pacific (WNP) region are examined in the absence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in two partially decoupled global experiments. ENSO is removed by nudging the tropical Pacific simulated sea surface temperature (SST) toward SST climatology from either observations or a fully coupled control run. The control reasonably captures the observed relationships between ENSO, ISM and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Despite weaker amplitude, IODs do exist in the absence of ENSO and are triggered by a boreal spring ocean-atmosphere coupled mode over the South-East Indian Ocean similar to that found in the presence of ENSO. These pure IODs significantly affect the tropical Indian Ocean throughout boreal summer, inducing a significant modulation of both the local Walker and Hadley cells. This meridional circulation is masked in the presence of ENSO. However, these pure IODs do not significantly influence the Indian subcontinent rainfall despite overestimated SST variability in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean compared to observations. On the other hand, they promote a late summer cross-equatorial quadrupole rainfall pattern linking the tropical Indian Ocean with the WNP, inducing important zonal shifts of the Walker circulation despite the absence of ENSO. Surprisingly, the interannual ISM rainfall variability is barely modified and the Indian Ocean does not force the monsoon circulation when ENSO is removed. On the contrary, the monsoon circulation significantly forces the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal SSTs, while its connection with the western tropical Indian Ocean is clearly driven by ENSO in our numerical framework. Convection and diabatic heating associated with above-normal ISM induce a strong response over the WNP, even in the absence of ENSO, favoring moisture convergence over India.

  3. Autumn atmospheric response to the 2007 low Arctic sea ice extent in coupled ocean-atmosphere hindcasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orsolini, Yvan J. [Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), PO BOX 100, Kjeller (Norway); Senan, Retish; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Melsom, Arne [Norwegian Meteorological Institute (met. no), Oslo (Norway)

    2012-06-15

    The autumn and early winter atmospheric response to the record-low Arctic sea ice extent at the end of summer 2007 is examined in ensemble hindcasts with prescribed sea ice extent, made with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecast model. Robust, warm anomalies over the Pacific and Siberian sectors of the Arctic, as high as 10 C at the surface, are found in October and November. A regime change occurs by December, characterized by weaker temperatures anomalies extending through the troposphere. Geopotential anomalies extend from the surface up to the stratosphere, associated to deeper Aleutian and Icelandic Lows. While the upper-level jet is weakened and shifted southward over the continents, it is intensified over both oceanic sectors, especially over the Pacific Ocean. On the American and Eurasian continents, intensified surface Highs are associated with anomalous advection of cold (warm) polar air on their eastern (western) sides, bringing cooler temperatures along the Pacific coast of Asia and Northeastern North America. Transient eddy activity is reduced over Eurasia, intensified over the entrance and exit regions of the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks, in broad qualitative agreement with the upper-level wind anomalies. Potential predictability calculations indicate a strong influence of sea ice upon surface temperatures over the Arctic in autumn, but also along the Pacific coast of Asia in December. When the observed sea ice extent from 2007 is prescribed throughout the autumn, a higher correlation of surface temperatures with meteorological re-analyses is found at high latitudes from October until mid-November. This further emphasises the relevance of sea ice for seasonal forecasting in the Arctic region, in the autumn. (orig.)

  4. Modes of North Atlantic Decadal Variability in the ECHAM1/LSG Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorita, Eduardo; Frankignoul, Claude

    1997-02-01

    The climate variability in the North Atlantic sector is investigated in a 325-yr integration of the ECHAM1/ LSG coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. At the interannual timescale, the coupled model behaves realistically and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies arise as a response of the oceanic surface layer to the stochastic forcing by the atmosphere, with the heat exchanges both generating and damping the SST anomalies. In the ocean interior, the temperature spectra are red up to a period of about 20 years, and substantial decadal fluctuations are found in the upper kilometer or so of the water column. Using extended empirical orthogonal function analysis, two distinct quasi-oscillatory modes of ocean-atmosphere variability are identified, with dominant periods of about 20 and 10 years, respectively. The oceanic changes in both modes reflect the direct forcing by the atmosphere through anomalous air-sea fluxes and Ekman pumping, which after some delay affects the intensity of the subtropical and subpolar gyres. The SST is also strongly modulated by the gyre currents. In the thermocline, the temperature and salinity fluctuations are in phase, as if caused by thermocline displacements, and they have no apparent connection with the thermohaline circulation. The 20-yr mode is the most energetic one; it is easily seen in the thermocline and can be found in SST data, but it is not detected in the atmosphere alone. As there is no evidence of positive ocean-atmosphere feedback, the 20-yr mode primarily reflects the passive response of the ocean to atmospheric fluctuations, which may be in part associated with climate anomalies appearing a few years earlier in the North Pacific. The 10-yr mode is more surface trapped in the ocean. Although the mode is most easily seen in the temperature variations of the upper few hundred meters of the ocean, it is also detected in the atmosphere alone and thus appears to be a coupled ocean-atmosphere mode. In both modes

  5. Investigation of hurricane Ivan using the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying; Warner, John C.

    2014-01-01

    The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) model is used to hindcast Hurricane Ivan (2004), an extremely intense tropical cyclone (TC) translating through the Gulf of Mexico. Sensitivity experiments with increasing complexity in ocean–atmosphere–wave coupled exchange processes are performed to assess the impacts of coupling on the predictions of the atmosphere, ocean, and wave environments during the occurrence of a TC. Modest improvement in track but significant improvement in intensity are found when using the fully atmosphere–ocean-wave coupled configuration versus uncoupled (e.g., standalone atmosphere, ocean, or wave) model simulations. Surface wave fields generated in the fully coupled configuration also demonstrates good agreement with in situ buoy measurements. Coupled and uncoupled model-simulated sea surface temperature (SST) fields are compared with both in situ and remote observations. Detailed heat budget analysis reveals that the mixed layer temperature cooling in the deep ocean (on the shelf) is caused primarily by advection (equally by advection and diffusion).

  6. Impact of resolving the diurnal cycle in an ocean-atmosphere GCM. Pt. 2. A diurnally coupled CGCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernie, D.J. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom); Numeriques, IPSL, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat, Experimentation et Approches, Paris (France); Guilyardi, E. [University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom); Numeriques, IPSL, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat, Experimentation et Approches, Paris (France); Madec, G. [Numeriques, IPSL, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat, Experimentation et Approches, Paris (France); Slingo, J.M.; Woolnough, S.J.; Cole, J. [University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2008-12-15

    Coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (GCM) are typically coupled once every 24 h, excluding the diurnal cycle from the upper ocean. Previous studies attempting to examine the role of the diurnal cycle of the upper ocean and particularly of diurnal SST variability have used models unable to resolve the processes of interest. In part 1 of this study a high vertical resolution ocean GCM configuration with modified physics was developed that could resolve the diurnal cycle in the upper ocean. In this study it is coupled every 3 h to atmospheric GCM to examine the sensitivity of the mean climate simulation and aspects of its variability to the inclusion of diurnal ocean-atmosphere coupling. The inclusion of the diurnal cycle leads to a tropics wide increase in mean sea surface temperature (SST), with the strongest signal being across the equatorial Pacific where the warming increases from 0.2 C in the central and western Pacific to over 0.3 C in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Much of this warming is shown to be a direct consequence of the rectification of daily mean SST by the diurnal variability of SST. The warming of the equatorial Pacific leads to a redistribution of precipitation from the Inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) toward the equator. In the western Pacific there is an increase in precipitation between Papa new guinea and 170 E of up to 1.2 mm/day, improving the simulation compared to climatology. Pacific sub tropical cells are increased in strength by about 10%, in line with results of part 1 of this study, due to the modification of the exchange of momentum between the equatorially divergent Ekman currents and the geostropic convergence at depth, effectively increasing the dynamical response of the tropical Pacific to zonal wind stresses. During the spring relaxation of the Pacific trade winds, a large diurnal cycle of SST increases the seasonal warming of the equatorial Pacific. When the trade winds then re-intensify, the increase in

  7. Ocean-atmosphere dynamics during Hurricane Ida and Nor'Ida: An application of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olabarrieta, Maitane; Warner, John C.; Armstrong, Brandy N.; Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying

    2012-01-01

    The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was used to investigate atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions in November 2009 during Hurricane Ida and its subsequent evolution to Nor’Ida, which was one of the most costly storm systems of the past two decades. One interesting aspect of this event is that it included two unique atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a nor’easter storm, which developed in regions with different oceanographic characteristics. Our modeled results were compared with several data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the National Tidal Database. By performing a series of numerical runs, we were able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (modeled with Weather Research and Forecasting, the WRF model), the ocean (modeled with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)), and the wave propagation and generation model (modeled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)). Special attention was given to the role of the ocean surface roughness. Three different ocean roughness closure models were analyzed: DGHQ (which is based on wave age), TY2001 (which is based on wave steepness), and OOST (which considers both the effects of wave age and steepness). Including the ocean roughness in the atmospheric module improved the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves, surface currents, and storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Hurricane Ida through the Gulf of Mexico, the wind speeds were reduced due to wave-induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During Nor’Ida, including the wave-induced surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. The combined wave age- and wave steepness

  8. The crucial role of ocean-atmosphere coupling on the Indian monsoon anomalous response during dipole events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnan, R.; Swapna, P.; Ayantika, D.C.; Mujumdar, M. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Climate and Global Modelling Division, Pune (India); Sundaram, Suchithra [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Climate and Global Modelling Division, Pune (India); Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie de Geophysique G. Lemaitre, Louvain-La-Neuve (Belgium); Kumar, Vinay [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Climate and Global Modelling Division, Pune (India); Florida State University, Department of Meteorology, Tallahassee, FL (United States)

    2011-07-15

    This paper examines an issue concerning the simulation of anomalously wet Indian summer monsoons like 1994 which co-occurred with strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean. Contrary to observations it has been noticed that standalone atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) forced with observed SST boundary condition, consistently depicted a decrease of the summer monsoon rainfall during 1994 over the Indian region. Given the ocean-atmosphere coupling during IOD events, we have examined whether the failure of standalone AGCM simulations in capturing wet Indian monsoons like 1994 can be remedied by including a simple form of coupling that allows the monsoon circulation to dynamically interact with the IOD anomalies. With this view, we have performed a suite of simulations by coupling an AGCM to a slab-ocean model with spatially varying mixed-layer-depth (MLD) specified from observations for the 1994 IOD; as well as four other cases (1983, 1997, 2006, 2007). The specification of spatially varying MLD from observations allows us to constrain the model to observed IOD conditions. It is seen that the inclusion of coupling significantly improves the large-scale circulation response by strengthening the monsoon cross-equatorial flow; leading to precipitation enhancement over the subcontinent and rainfall decrease over south-eastern tropical Indian Ocean - in a manner broadly consistent with observations. A plausible physical mechanism is suggested to explain the monsoonal response in the coupled frame-work. These results warrant the need for improved monsoon simulations with fully coupled models to be able to better capture the observed monsoon interannual variability. (orig.)

  9. Southern hemisphere climate variability as represented by an ocean-atmosphere coupled model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Beraki, A

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available in the atmospheric circulation. The ability of predicting these modes of climate variability on longer timescales is vital. Potential predictability is usually measured as a signal-to-noise contrast between the slowly evolving and chaotic components of the climate...

  10. Orographic effects on tropical climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okajima, Hideki

    Large-scale mountain modifies the atmospheric circulation directly through dynamic and thermodynamic process, and also indirectly through the interaction with the ocean. To investigate orographic impacts on tropical climate, a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM) is developed by coupling a state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model and an ocean general circulation model. With realistic boundary conditions, the CGCM produces a reasonable climatology of sea surface temperature (SST), surface winds, and precipitation. When global mountains are removed, the model climatology displays substantial changes in both the mean-state and the seasonal cycle. The equatorial eastern Pacific SST acquires a semi-annual component as inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) flips and flops across the equator following the seasonal migration of the sun. Without the Andes, wet air flows into the southeastern tropical Pacific from the humid Amazon, which weakens the meridional asymmetry during the Peruvian warm season (February-April). In addition, the northeasterly trade winds are enhanced north of the equator without the orographic blocking of Central American mountains and cools SST. Triggered by the SST cooling north and moistening south of the equator, the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback further weakens the meridional asymmetry and prolongs the southern ITCZ. In the Atlantic Ocean, the equatorial cold tongue is substantially strengthened and develops a pronounced annual cycle in the absence of mountains. The easterly winds are overall enhanced over the equatorial Atlantic without orographic heating over the African highlands, developing a zonal asymmetry strengthened by the Bjerknes feedback. In the Indian Ocean, the thermocline shoals eastward and an equatorial cold tongue appears twice a year. During boreal summer, the Findlater jet is greatly weakened off Somalia and SST warms in the western Indian Ocean, forcing the equatorial easterly winds amplified

  11. Bi-decadal variability excited in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system by strong tropical volcanic eruptions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zanchettin, D.; Lorenz, S.; Lohmann, K.; Jungclaus, J.H. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Ocean in the Earth System Department, Hamburg (Germany); Timmreck, C. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Atmosphere in the Earth System Department, Hamburg (Germany); Graf, H.-F. [University of Cambridge, Centre for Atmospheric Science, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Rubino, A. [Ca' Foscari University, Department of Environmental Sciences, Venice (Italy); Krueger, K. [Leibniz-Institute of Marine Sciences, IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel (Germany)

    2012-07-15

    Decadal and bi-decadal climate responses to tropical strong volcanic eruptions (SVEs) are inspected in an ensemble simulation covering the last millennium based on the Max Planck Institute - Earth system model. An unprecedentedly large collection of pre-industrial SVEs (up to 45) producing a peak annual-average top-of-atmosphere radiative perturbation larger than -1.5 Wm{sup -2} is investigated by composite analysis. Post-eruption oceanic and atmospheric anomalies coherently describe a fluctuation in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system with an average length of 20-25 years. The study provides a new physically consistent theoretical framework to interpret decadal Northern Hemisphere (NH) regional winter climates variability during the last millennium. The fluctuation particularly involves interactions between the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the North Atlantic gyre circulation closely linked to the state of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation. It is characterized by major distinctive details. Among them, the most prominent are: (a) a strong signal amplification in the Arctic region which allows for a sustained strengthened teleconnection between the North Pacific and the North Atlantic during the first post-eruption decade and which entails important implications from oceanic heat transport and from post-eruption sea ice dynamics, and (b) an anomalous surface winter warming emerging over the Scandinavian/Western Russian region around 10-12 years after a major eruption. The simulated long-term climate response to SVEs depends, to some extent, on background conditions. Consequently, ensemble simulations spanning different phases of background multidecadal and longer climate variability are necessary to constrain the range of possible post-eruption decadal evolution of NH regional winter climates. (orig.)

  12. Impact of a realistic river routing in coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alkama, Ramdane [IPSL, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Structure et fonctionnement des systemes hydriques continentaux (Sisyphe), Paris (France); Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G.; Marti, O.; Swingedouw, D. [IPSL, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Ribstein, P. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Structure et fonctionnement des systemes hydriques continentaux (Sisyphe), Paris (France)

    2008-06-15

    The presence of large ice sheets over North America and North Europe at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) strongly impacted Northern hemisphere river pathways. Despite the fact that such changes may significantly alter the freshwater input to the ocean, modified surface hydrology has never been accounted for in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model simulations of the LGM climate. To reconstruct the LGM river routing, we use the ICE-5G LGM topography. Because of the uncertainties in the extent of the Fennoscandian ice sheet in the Eastern part of the Kara Sea, we consider two more realistic river routing scenarios. The first scenario is characterised by the presence of an ice dammed lake south of the Fennoscandian ice sheet, and corresponds to the ICE-5G topography. This lake is fed by the Ob and Yenisei rivers. In the second scenario, both these rivers flow directly into the Arctic Ocean, which is more consistent with the latest QUEEN ice sheet margin reconstructions. We study the impact of these changes on the LGM climate as simulated by the IPSL{sub C}M4 model and focus on the overturning thermohaline circulation. A comparison with a classical LGM simulation performed using the same model and modern river basins as designed in the PMIP2 exercise leads to the following conclusions: (1) The discharge into the North Atlantic Ocean is increased by 2,000 m{sup 3}/s between 38 and 54 N in both simulations that contain LGM river routing, compared to the classical LGM experiment. (2) The ice dammed lake is shown to have a weak impact, relative to the classical simulation, both in terms of climate and ocean circulation. (3) In contrast, the North Atlantic deep convection and meridional overturning are weaker than during the classical LGM run if the Ob and Yenisei rivers flow directly into the Arctic Ocean. The total discharge into the Arctic Ocean is increased by 31,000 m{sup 3}/s, relative to the classical LGM simulation. Consequentially, northward ocean heat

  13. Impact of the configuration of stretching and ocean-atmosphere coupling on tropical cyclone activity in the variable-resolution GCM ARPEGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daloz, Anne Sophie; Chauvin, Fabrice [CNRM-GAME, Groupe de Modelisation Grande Echelle et Climat, Toulouse Cedex 1 (France); Roux, Frank [Universite de Toulouse, Laboratoire d' Aerologie, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Toulouse (France)

    2012-11-15

    This study starts by investigating the impact of the configuration of the variable-resolution atmospheric grid on tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The French atmospheric general circulation model ARPEGE, the grid of which is rotated and stretched over the North Atlantic basin, was used with prescribed sea surface temperatures. The study clearly shows that changing the position of the stretching pole strongly modifies the representation of TC activity over the North Atlantic basin. A pole in the centre of the North Atlantic basin provides the best representation of the TC activity for this region. In a second part, the variable-resolution climate model ARPEGE is coupled with the European oceanic global climate model NEMO in order to study the impact of ocean-atmosphere coupling on TC activity over the North Atlantic basin. Two pre-industrial runs, a coupled simulation and a simulation forced by the sea surface temperatures from the coupled one, are compared. The results show that the coupled simulation is more active in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico while the forced simulation is more active over eastern Florida and the eastern Atlantic. The difference in the distribution of TC activity is certainly linked with the location of TC genesis. In the forced simulation, tropical cyclogenesis is closer to the west African coast than in the coupled simulation. Moreover, the difference in TC activity over the eastern Atlantic seems to be related to two different mechanisms: the difference in African easterly wave activity over the west of Africa and the cooling produced, in the coupled simulation, by African easterly waves over the eastern Atlantic. Finally, the last part studies the impact of changing the frequency of ocean-atmosphere coupling on Atlantic TC activity. Increasing the frequency of coupling decreases the density of TC activity over the North Atlantic basin. However, it does not modify the spatial distribution of the TC activity. TC rainfalls are

  14. Implementation of the vortex force formalism in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system for inner shelf and surf zone applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Nirnimesh; Voulgaris, George; Warner, John C.; Olabarrieta, Maitane

    2012-01-01

    The coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport modeling system (COAWST) enables simulations that integrate oceanic, atmospheric, wave and morphological processes in the coastal ocean. Within the modeling system, the three-dimensional ocean circulation module (ROMS) is coupled with the wave generation and propagation model (SWAN) to allow full integration of the effect of waves on circulation and vice versa. The existing wave-current coupling component utilizes a depth dependent radiation stress approach. In here we present a new approach that uses the vortex force formalism. The formulation adopted and the various parameterizations used in the model as well as their numerical implementation are presented in detail. The performance of the new system is examined through the presentation of four test cases. These include obliquely incident waves on a synthetic planar beach and a natural barred beach (DUCK' 94); normal incident waves on a nearshore barred morphology with rip channels; and wave-induced mean flows outside the surf zone at the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory (MVCO).

  15. Progress Towards Achieving the Challenge of Indian Summer Monsoon Climate Simulation in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Anupam; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Pokhrel, Samir; Goswami, B. N.

    2017-10-01

    Simulation of the spatial and temporal structure of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs), which have effects on the seasonal mean and annual cycle of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall, remains a grand challenge for the state-of-the-art global coupled models. Biases in simulation of the amplitude and northward propagation of MISOs and related dry rainfall bias over ISM region in climate models are limiting the current skill of monsoon prediction. Recent observations indicate that the convective microphysics of clouds may be critical in simulating the observed MISOs. The hypothesis is strongly supported by high fidelity in simulation of the amplitude and space-time spectra of MISO by a coupled climate model, when our physically based modified cloud microphysics scheme is implemented in conjunction with a modified new Simple Arakawa Schubert (nSAS) convective parameterization scheme. Improved simulation of MISOs appears to have been aided by much improved simulation of the observed high cloud fraction and convective to stratiform rain fractions and resulted into a much improved simulation of the ISM rainfall, monsoon onset, and the annual cycle.

  16. The role of ocean-atmosphere interaction in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) using a regional coupled data assimilation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Akiyoshi; Kunii, Masaru

    2017-05-01

    For improving analyses of tropical cyclone (TC) and sea surface temperature (SST) and thereby TC simulations, a regional mesoscale strongly coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation system was developed with the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) implemented with the Japan Meteorological Agency's nonhydrostatic model (NHM) coupled with a multilayer ocean model and the third-generation ocean wave model. The NHM-LETKF coupled data assimilation system was applied to Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) along with the original NHM-LETKF system to investigate the sensitivity of Sinlaku to SST assimilation with the Level 2 Pre-processed (L2P) standard product of satellite SST. SST calculated in the coupled-assimilation experiment with the coupled data assimilation system and the satellite SST (CPL) showed a better correlation with Optimally Interpolated SST than SST used in the control experiment with the original NHM-LETKF (CNTL) and SST calculated in the succession experiment with the coupled system without satellite SST (SUCC). The time series in the CPL experiment well captured the variation in the SST observed at the Kuroshio Extension Observation buoy site. In addition, TC-induced sea surface cooling was analyzed more realistically in the CPL experiment than that in the CNTL and SUCC experiments. However, the central pressure analyzed in each three experiments was overestimated compared with the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo best-track central pressure, mainly due to the coarse horizontal resolution of 15 km. The 96 h TC simulations indicated that the CPL experiment provided more favorable initial and boundary conditions than the CNTL experiment to simulate TC tracks more accurately.

  17. Impacts of the Mesoscale Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling on the Peru-Chile Ocean Dynamics: The Current-Induced Wind Stress Modulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oerder, V.; Colas, F.; Echevin, V.; Masson, S.; Lemarié, F.

    2018-02-01

    The ocean dynamical responses to the surface current-wind stress interaction at the oceanic mesoscale are investigated in the South-East Pacific using a high-resolution regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Two simulations are compared: one includes the surface current in the wind stress computation while the other does not. In the coastal region, absolute wind velocities are different between the two simulations but the wind stress remains very similar. As a consequence, the mean regional oceanic circulation is almost unchanged. On the contrary, the mesoscale activity is strongly reduced when taking into account the effect of the surface current on the wind stress. This is caused by a weakening of the eddy kinetic energy generation near the coast by the wind work and to intensified offshore eddy damping. We show that, above coherent eddies, the current-stress interaction generates eddy damping through Ekman pumping and eddy kinetic energy dissipation through wind work. This alters significantly the coherent eddy vertical structures compared with the control simulation, weakening the temperature and vorticity anomalies and increasing strongly the vertical velocity anomalies associated to eddies.

  18. Coupled Ocean/Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS), Version 5.0 (User’s Guide)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-30

    provides tools for common modeling functions, as well as regridding, data decomposition, and communication on parallel computers. NRL/MR/7320--10...specified gncomDir. If running COAMPS at the DSRC (e.g. BABBAGE, DAVINCI , or EINSTEIN), the global NCOM files will be copied to /scr/[user]/COAMPS/data...the site (DSRC or local) and the platform (BABBAGE. DAVINCI , EINSTEIN, or local machine) on which COAMPS is being run. site=navy_dsrc (for DSRC

  19. Development and Testing of a Coupled Ocean-atmosphere Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-28

    member 0; see text for a detailed description of the physics parameters) Member abl mixlen Flux w-kf tinc-lcl cld -rad precip Graupel Auto-conv Rain-int...increment has an impact on the convective initiation. 7. The cloud updraft radius used in the K–F parameteri- zation: The radius cld -rad (m) varies

  20. Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dake; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Cane, Mark A.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1997-01-01

    The skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model in predicting ENSO has recently been improved using a new initialization procedure in which initial conditions are obtained from the coupled model, nudged toward observations of wind stress. The previous procedure involved direct insertion of wind stress observations, ignoring model feedback from ocean to atmosphere. The success of the new scheme is attributed to its explicit consideration of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the associated reduction of "initialization shock" and random noise. The so-called spring predictability barrier is eliminated, suggesting that such a barrier is not intrinsic to the real climate system. Initial attempts to generalize the nudging procedure to include SST were not successful; possible explanations are offered. In all experiments forecast skill is found to be much higher for the 1980s than for the 1970s and 1990s, suggesting decadal variations in predictability.

  1. Ocean-atmosphere interactions during cyclone Nargis

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mc; Foltz, G.R.; Lee, T.; Murty, V.S.N.; Ravichandran, M.; Vecchi, G.A.; Vialard, J.; Wiggert, J.D.; Yu, L.

    =UTF-8 Author version: EOS: Trans. Am. Geophys. Union: 90(7); 2009; 53-60; doi:10.1029/2009EO070001 Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions During Cyclone Nargis M. J. McPhaden (1) , G. R. Foltz (2) , T. Lee (3) , V. S. N. Murty (4) , M... Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction; McPhaden et al, 2008) designed to complement a constellation of earth observing satellites for key environmental parameters such as winds, sea surface temperature (SST), and sea...

  2. Northern hemisphere storm tracks during the last glacial maximum in the PMIP2 ocean-atmosphere coupled models: energetic study, seasonal cycle, precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laine, A.; Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G.; Peterschmitt, J.Y. [LSCE/IPSL, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ 1572, CE Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Salas-Melia, D.; Voldoire, A.; Riviere, G.; Planton, S.; Tyteca, S. [CNRM-GAME, URA CNRS-Meteo-France 1357, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France)

    2009-04-15

    Mid-latitude eddies are an important component of the climatic system due to their role in transporting heat, moisture and momentum from the tropics to the poles, and also for the precipitation associated with their fronts, especially in winter. We study northern hemisphere storm-tracks at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and their influence on precipitation using ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) simulations from the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). The difference with PMIP1 results in terms of sea-surface temperature forcing, fundamental for storm-track dynamics, is large, especially in the eastern North Atlantic where sea-ice extends less to the south in OAGCMs compared to atmospheric-only GCMs. Our analyses of the physics of the eddies are based on the equations of eddy energetics. All models simulate a consistent southeastward shift of the North Pacific storm-track in winter, related to a similar displacement of the jet stream, partly forced by the eddies themselves. Precipitation anomalies are consistent with storm-track changes, with a southeastward displacement of the North Pacific precipitation pattern. The common features of North Atlantic changes in the LGM simulations consist of a thinning of the storm-track in its western part and an amplification of synoptic activity to the southeast, in the region between the Azores Islands and the Iberian Peninsula, which reflects on precipitation. This southeastward extension is related to a similar displacement of the jet, partly forced by the eddies. In the western North Atlantic, the synoptic activity anomalies are at first order related to baroclinic generation term anomalies, but the mean-flow baroclinicity increase due to the presence of the Laurentide ice-sheet is partly balanced by a loss of eddy efficiency to convert energy from the mean flow. Moisture availability in this region is greatly reduced due to more advection of dry polar air by

  3. Ocean-atmosphere dynamics during Hurricane Ida and Nor'Ida: An application of the coupled ocean-;atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olabarrieta, Maitane; Warner, John C.; Armstrong, Brandy N.; Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying

    2012-01-01

    The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was used to investigate atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions in November 2009 during Hurricane Ida and its subsequent evolution to Nor'Ida, which was one of the most costly storm systems of the past two decades. One interesting aspect of this event is that it included two unique atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a nor'easter storm, which developed in regions with different oceanographic characteristics. Our modeled results were compared with several data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the National Tidal Database. By performing a series of numerical runs, we were able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (modeled with Weather Research and Forecasting, the WRF model), the ocean (modeled with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)), and the wave propagation and generation model (modeled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)). Special attention was given to the role of the ocean surface roughness. Three different ocean roughness closure models were analyzed: DGHQ (which is based on wave age), TY2001 (which is based on wave steepness), and OOST (which considers both the effects of wave age and steepness). Including the ocean roughness in the atmospheric module improved the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves, surface currents, and storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Hurricane Ida through the Gulf of Mexico, the wind speeds were reduced due to wave-induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During Nor'Ida, including the wave-induced surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. The combined wave age- and wave steepness

  4. Analysis of the Effects of SST and Model Resolutions on the Identification of the 1993 Superstorm Using an Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Regional System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aktas, D.; Velissariou, P.; Chassignet, E.; Bourassa, M. A.

    2014-12-01

    The non-tropical storm, the 12-14 March 1993 Superstorm, which called the Storm of the Century had a wide reaching effect on the Northern Gulf of Mexico region and the East Coast of the United States. Previous studies show that the initial development of the storm could not be simulated accurately enough to represent the intensity and the evolution of the storm over the Gulf of Mexico region. The aim of this study is to identify the effects of the air-sea fluxes, the sea surface temperature (SST) and the model resolution on determining the intensity and the track of the storm more accurately. To this end, the outputs from two-way coupled model runs were examined to analyze the storm characteristics. Model configurations have been set within a coupled system framework that includes the atmospheric model Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) and the ocean model Regional Ocean Model (ROMS). Three WRF domains assigned 15 km, 5 km and ~1.6 km resolutions, respectively and an 8 km resolution ROMS domain were used in the coupled system. The initial and boundary conditions for WRF were extracted from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) products and the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) generated SSTs while, the conditions for ROMS were extracted from HYCOM. Comparisons were performed against NOAA buoys and GridSAT brightness temperatures. Minimum mean sea level pressure (MSLP), maximum wind speed and storm locations were examined. Time series for MSLP and wind speed were used to illustrate how air-sea interaction and resolution changes storm intensity along the track. The results showing the RMS differences on the storm location and intensity of the storm are also presented.

  5. Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS), Version 5.0, Revision 2.0 (User’s Guide)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    output (I/O) system. The framework provides tools for common modeling functions, as well as regridding, data decomposition, and communication on...Within this script, the user must specify both the site (DSRC or local) and the platform ( DAVINCI , EINSTEIN, or local machine) on which COAMPS is...being run. For example: site=navy_dsrc (for DSRC usage) site=nrlssc (for local NRL-SSC usage) platform= davinci or einstein (for DSRC usage

  6. Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) Version 5.0, Rev. 2.0 (User’s Guide)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    output (I/O) system. The framework provides tools for common modeling functions, as well as regridding, data decomposition, and communication on...Within this script, the user must specify both the site (DSRC or local) and the platform ( DAVINCI , EINSTEIN, or local machine) on which COAMPS is...being run. For example: site=navy_dsrc (for DSRC usage) site=nrlssc (for local NRL-SSC usage) platform= davinci or einstein (for DSRC usage

  7. User’s Guide for the Coupled Ocean/Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) Version 5.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-30

    provides tools for common modeling functions, as well as regridding, data decomposition, and communication on parallel computers. NRL/MR/7320...specified gncomDir. If running COAMPS at the DSRC (e.g. BABBAGE, DAVINCI , or EINSTEIN), the global NCOM files will be copied to /scr/[user]/COAMPS/data...the site (DSRC or local) and the platform (BABBAGE. DAVINCI , EINSTEIN, or local machine) on which COAMPS is being run. site=navy_dsrc (for DSRC

  8. Use of Ocean Remote Sensing Data to Enhance Predictions with a Coupled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rienecker, Michele M.

    1999-01-01

    Surface height, sea surface temperature and surface wind observations from satellites have given a detailed time sequence of the initiation and evolution of the 1997/98 El Nino. The data have beet complementary to the subsurface TAO moored data in their spatial resolution and extent. The impact of satellite observations on seasonal prediction in the tropical Pacific using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model will be presented.

  9. A comparison of observed extreme water levels at the German Bight elaborated through an extreme value analysis (EVA) with extremes derived from a regionally coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model (MPI-OM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möller, Jens; Heinrich, Hartmut

    2017-04-01

    As a consequence of climate change atmospheric and oceanographic extremes and their potential impacts on coastal regions are of growing concern for governmental authorities responsible for the transportation infrastructure. Highest risks for shipping as well as for rail and road traffic originate from combined effects of extremes of storm surges and heavy rainfall which sometimes lead to insufficient dewatering of inland waterways. The German Ministry of Transport and digital Infrastructure therefore has tasked its Network of Experts to investigate the possible evolutions of extreme threats for low lands and especially for Kiel Canal, which is an important shortcut for shipping between the North and Baltic Seas. In this study we present results of a comparison of an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) carried out on gauge observations and values derived from a coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model (MPI-OM). High water levels at the coasts of the North and Baltic Seas are one of the most important hazards which increase the risk of flooding of the low-lying land and prevents such areas from an adequate dewatering. In this study changes in the intensity (magnitude of the extremes) and duration of extreme water levels (above a selected threshold) are investigated for several gauge stations with data partly reaching back to 1843. Different methods are used for the extreme value statistics, (1) a stationary general Pareto distribution (GPD) model as well as (2) an instationary statistical model for better reproduction of the impact of climate change. Most gauge stations show an increase of the mean water level of about 1-2 mm/year, with a stronger increase of the highest water levels and a decrease (or lower increase) of the lowest water levels. Also, the duration of possible dewatering time intervals for the Kiel-Canal was analysed. The results for the historical gauge station observations are compared to the statistics of modelled water levels from the coupled

  10. Uncertainty in the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks associated with ENSO in the reanalysis products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2012-08-15

    The evolution of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability can be characterized by various ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, for example, the influence of ENSO related sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the low-level wind and surface heat fluxes in the equatorial tropical Pacific, which in turn affects the evolution of the SST. An analysis of these feedbacks requires physically consistent observational data sets. Availability of various reanalysis data sets produced during the last 15 years provides such an opportunity. A consolidated estimate of ocean surface fluxes based on multiple reanalyses also helps understand biases in ENSO predictions and simulations from climate models. In this paper, the intensity and the spatial structure of ocean-atmosphere feedback terms (precipitation, surface wind stress, and ocean surface heat flux) associated with ENSO are evaluated for six different reanalysis products. The analysis provides an estimate for the feedback terms that could be used for model validation studies. The analysis includes the robustness of the estimate across different reanalyses. Results show that one of the ''coupled'' reanalysis among the six investigated is closer to the ensemble mean of the results, suggesting that the coupled data assimilation may have the potential to better capture the overall atmosphere-ocean feedback processes associated with ENSO than the uncoupled ones. (orig.)

  11. Flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model. A modeling tool for the climate change research community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin

    2014-01-01

    First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.

  12. Flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model. A modeling tool for the climate change research community

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin (eds.) [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, (China). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

    2014-04-01

    First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.

  13. Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) LMRF Arctic Subset

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) LMRF Arctic subset contains marine surface weather reports for the region north of 65 degrees N from ships,...

  14. Underway pressure, temperature, and salinity data from the MOANA WAVE from the Pacific warm pool in support of the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) from 02 February 1993 to 21 February 1993 (NODC Accession 9600090)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Pressure, temperature, and salinity data were collected while underway from the MOANA WAVE from the Pacific warm pool. Data were collected in support of the Coupled...

  15. Validation Test Report for the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere MesoscalePrediction System (COAMPS) Version 5.0: Ocean/Wave Component Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-31

    wind flow ahead of the next extratropical low pressure system entering Europe . Figure 3.4-4 shows the mean SWH difference and mean NCOM-only and...RED) TC TRACKS ARE SHOWN. CIRCLES ON BOTH TRACKS REPRESENT HOURLY LOCATIONS OF THE STORM CENTERS. ..................................... 18  FIGURE...conditions such as wave boundary conditions, tides, wind, and storm surge. A quasi-stationary approach is used with stationary SWAN computations in a

  16. Instabilities in the coupled equatorial ocean atmosphere system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, H.A.; Vaart, P.C.F. van der

    1999-01-01

    The large-scale interaction between the ocean and atmosphere is one of the impor- tant factors of natural climate variability.The El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Tropical Pacific is one of the most prominent examples of climate variability on interannual time scales.ENSO has

  17. Skill Assessment of a Spectral Ocean-Atmosphere Radiative Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson, W.; Casey, Nancy W.

    2009-01-01

    Ocean phytoplankton, detrital material, and water absorb and scatter light spectrally. The Ocean- Atmosphere Spectral Irradiance Model (OASIM) is intended to provide surface irradiance over the oceans with sufficient spectral resolution to support ocean ecology, biogeochemistry, and heat exchange investigations, and of sufficient duration to support inter-annual and decadal investigations. OASIM total surface irradiance (integrated 200 nm to 4 microns) was compared to in situ data and three publicly available global data products at monthly 1-degree resolution. OASIM spectrally-integrated surface irradiance had root mean square (RMS) difference= 20.1 W/sq m (about 11%), bias=1.6 W/sq m (about 0.8%), regression slope= 1.01 and correlation coefficient= 0.89, when compared to 2322 in situ observations. OASIM had the lowest bias of any of the global data products evaluated (ISCCP-FD, NCEP, and ISLSCP 11), and the best slope (nearest to unity). It had the second best RMS, and the third best correlation coefficient. OASIM total surface irradiance compared well with ISCCP-FD (RMS= 20.7 W/sq m; bias=-11.4 W/sq m, r=0.98) and ISLSCP II (RMS =25.2 W/sq m; bias= -13.8 W/sq m; r=0.97), but less well with NCEP (RMS =43.0 W/sq m ;bias=-22.6 W/sq m; x=0.91). Comparisons of OASIM photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) with PAR derived from SeaWiFS showed low bias (-1.8 mol photons /sq m/d, or about 5%), RMS (4.25 mol photons /sq m/d ' or about 12%), near unity slope (1.03) and high correlation coefficient (0.97). Coupled with previous estimates of clear sky spectral irradiance in OASIM (6.6% RMS at 1 nm resolution), these results suggest that OASIM provides reasonable estimates of surface broadband and spectral irradiance in the oceans, and can support studies on ocean ecosystems, carbon cycling, and heat exchange.

  18. Key features of the IPSL ocean atmosphere model and its sensitivity to atmospheric resolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marti, Olivier; Braconnot, P.; Bellier, J.; Brockmann, P.; Caubel, A.; Noblet, N. de; Friedlingstein, P.; Idelkadi, A.; Kageyama, M. [Unite Mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL/LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Dufresne, J.L.; Bony, S.; Codron, F.; Fairhead, L.; Grandpeix, J.Y.; Hourdin, F.; Musat, I. [Unite Mixte CNRS-Ecole Polytechnique-ENS-UPCM, IPSL/LMD, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Benshila, R.; Guilyardi, E.; Levy, C.; Madec, G.; Mignot, J.; Talandier, C. [unite mixte CNRS-IRD-UPMC, IPLS/LOCEAN, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Cadule, P.; Denvil, S.; Foujols, M.A. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace des Sciences de l' Environnement (IPSL), Paris Cedex 05 (France); Fichefet, T.; Goosse, H. [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie et de Geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Krinner, G. [Unite mixte CNRS-UJF Grenoble, LGGE, BP96, Saint-Martin-d' Heres (France); Swingedouw, D. [CNRS/CERFACS, Toulouse (France)

    2010-01-15

    This paper presents the major characteristics of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The model components and the coupling methodology are described, as well as the main characteristics of the climatology and interannual variability. The model results of the standard version used for IPCC climate projections, and for intercomparison projects like the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP 2) are compared to those with a higher resolution in the atmosphere. A focus on the North Atlantic and on the tropics is used to address the impact of the atmosphere resolution on processes and feedbacks. In the North Atlantic, the resolution change leads to an improved representation of the storm-tracks and the North Atlantic oscillation. The better representation of the wind structure increases the northward salt transports, the deep-water formation and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. In the tropics, the ocean-atmosphere dynamical coupling, or Bjerknes feedback, improves with the resolution. The amplitude of ENSO (El Nino-Southern oscillation) consequently increases, as the damping processes are left unchanged. (orig.)

  19. ESPC Coupled Global Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    through an improvement to the sea ice albedo . Fig. 3: 2-m Temperature bias (deg C) of 120-h forecasts for the month of May 2014 for the Arctic...forecast system (NAVGEM) and ocean- sea ice forecast system (HYCOM/CICE) have never been coupled at high resolution. The coupled processes will be...winds and currents across the interface. The sea - ice component of this project requires modification of CICE versions 4 and 5 to run in the coupled

  20. Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions Modulate Irrigation's Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krakauer, Nir Y.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Gentine, Pierre; Nazarenko, Larissa

    2016-01-01

    Numerous studies have focused on the local and regional climate effects of irrigated agriculture and other land cover and land use change (LCLUC) phenomena, but there are few studies on the role of ocean- atmosphere interaction in modulating irrigation climate impacts. Here, we compare simulations with and without interactive sea surface temperatures of the equilibrium effect on climate of contemporary (year 2000) irrigation geographic extent and intensity. We find that ocean-atmosphere interaction does impact the magnitude of global-mean and spatially varying climate impacts, greatly increasing their global reach. Local climate effects in the irrigated regions remain broadly similar, while non-local effects, particularly over the oceans, tend to be larger. The interaction amplifies irrigation-driven standing wave patterns in the tropics and mid-latitudes in our simulations, approximately doubling the global-mean amplitude of surface temperature changes due to irrigation. The fractions of global area experiencing significant annual-mean surface air temperature and precipitation change also approximately double with ocean-atmosphere interaction. Subject to confirmation with other models, these findings imply that LCLUC is an important contributor to climate change even in remote areas such as the Southern Ocean, and that attribution studies should include interactive oceans and need to consider LCLUC, including irrigation, as a truly global forcing that affects climate and the water cycle over ocean as well as land areas.

  1. Coupled assimilation for an intermediated coupled ENSO prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

    2010-10-01

    The value of coupled assimilation is discussed using an intermediate coupled model in which the wind stress is the only atmospheric state which is slavery to model sea surface temperature (SST). In the coupled assimilation analysis, based on the coupled wind-ocean state covariance calculated from the coupled state ensemble, the ocean state is adjusted by assimilating wind data using the ensemble Kalman filter. As revealed by a series of assimilation experiments using simulated observations, the coupled assimilation of wind observations yields better results than the assimilation of SST observations. Specifically, the coupled assimilation of wind observations can help to improve the accuracy of the surface and subsurface currents because the correlation between the wind and ocean currents is stronger than that between SST and ocean currents in the equatorial Pacific. Thus, the coupled assimilation of wind data can decrease the initial condition errors in the surface/subsurface currents that can significantly contribute to SST forecast errors. The value of the coupled assimilation of wind observations is further demonstrated by comparing the prediction skills of three 12-year (1997-2008) hindcast experiments initialized by the ocean-only assimilation scheme that assimilates SST observations, the coupled assimilation scheme that assimilates wind observations, and a nudging scheme that nudges the observed wind stress data, respectively. The prediction skills of two assimilation schemes are significantly better than those of the nudging scheme. The prediction skills of assimilating wind observations are better than assimilating SST observations. Assimilating wind observations for the 2007/2008 La Niña event triggers better predictions, while assimilating SST observations fails to provide an early warning for that event.

  2. The Role of the Indian Ocean Sector for Prediction of the Coupled Indo-Pacific System: Impact of Atmospheric Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackert, E. C.; Busalacchi, A. J.; Carton, J.; Murtugudde, R.; Arkin, P.; Evans, M. N.

    2017-01-01

    Indian Ocean (IO) dynamics impact ENSO predictability by influencing wind and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific. To test if the upstream influence of the IO improves ENSO validation statistics, a combination of forced ocean, atmosphere, and coupled models are utilized. In one experiment, the full tropical Indo-Pacific region atmosphere is forced by observed interannual SST anomalies. In the other, the IO is forced by climatological SST. Differences between these two forced atmospheric model experiments spotlight a much richer wind response pattern in the Pacific than previous studies that used idealized forcing and simple linear atmospheric models. Weak westerlies are found near the equator similar to earlier literature. However, at initialization strong easterlies between 30 deg. S to 10 deg. S and 0 deg. N to 25 deg. N and equatorial convergence of the meridional winds across the entire Pacific are unique findings from this paper. The large-scale equatorial divergence west of the dateline and northeasterly-to-northwesterly cross-equatorial flow converging on the equator east of the dateline in the Pacific are generated from interannual IO SST coupling. In addition, off-equatorial downwelling curl impacts large-scale oceanic waves (i.e., Rossby waves reflect as western boundary Kelvin waves). After 3 months, these downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves propagate across the Pacific and strengthen the NINO3 SST. Eventually Bjerknes feedbacks take hold in the eastern Pacific which allows this warm anomaly to grow. Coupled forecasts for NINO3 SST anomalies for 1993-2014 demonstrate that including interannual IO forcing significantly improves predictions for 3-9 month lead times.

  3. The role of the Indian Ocean sector for prediction of the coupled Indo-Pacific system: Impact of atmospheric coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackert, E. C.; Busalacchi, A. J.; Carton, J.; Murtugudde, R.; Arkin, P.; Evans, M. N.

    2017-04-01

    Indian Ocean (IO) dynamics impact ENSO predictability by influencing wind and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific. To test if the upstream influence of the IO improves ENSO validation statistics, a combination of forced ocean, atmosphere, and coupled models are utilized. In one experiment, the full tropical Indo-Pacific region atmosphere is forced by observed interannual SST anomalies. In the other, the IO is forced by climatological SST. Differences between these two forced atmospheric model experiments spotlight a much richer wind response pattern in the Pacific than previous studies that used idealized forcing and simple linear atmospheric models. Weak westerlies are found near the equator similar to earlier literature. However, at initialization strong easterlies between 30°S-10°S and 0°N-25°N and equatorial convergence of the meridional winds across the entire Pacific are unique findings from this paper. The large-scale equatorial divergence west of the dateline and northeasterly-to-northwesterly cross-equatorial flow converging on the equator east of the dateline in the Pacific are generated from interannual IO SST coupling. In addition, off-equatorial downwelling curl impacts large-scale oceanic waves (i.e., Rossby waves reflect as western boundary Kelvin waves). After 3 months, these downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves propagate across the Pacific and strengthen the NINO3 SST. Eventually Bjerknes feedbacks take hold in the eastern Pacific which allows this warm anomaly to grow. Coupled forecasts for NINO3 SST anomalies for 1993-2014 demonstrate that including interannual IO forcing significantly improves predictions for 3-9 month lead times.

  4. Link prediction via generalized coupled tensor factorisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ermiş, Beyza; Evrim, Acar Ataman; Taylan Cemgil, A.

    2012-01-01

    and higher-order tensors. We propose to use an approach based on probabilistic interpretation of tensor factorisation models, i.e., Generalised Coupled Tensor Factorisation, which can simultaneously fit a large class of tensor models to higher-order tensors/matrices with com- mon latent factors using...... different loss functions. Numerical experiments demonstrate that joint analysis of data from multiple sources via coupled factorisation improves the link prediction performance and the selection of right loss function and tensor model is crucial for accurately predicting missing links....

  5. Application of a Reduced Order Kalman Filter to Initialize a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model: Impact on the Prediction of El Nino

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Murtugudde, Ragu

    2000-01-01

    A reduced order Kalman Filter, based on a simplification of the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter equations, is used to assimilate observed fields of the surface wind stress, sea surface temperature and sea level into the nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The SEEK filter projects the Kalman Filter equations onto a subspace defined by the eigenvalue decomposition of the error forecast matrix, allowing its application to high dimensional systems. The Zebiak and Cane model couples a linear reduced gravity ocean model with a single vertical mode atmospheric model of Zebiak. The compatibility between the simplified physics of the model and each observed variable is studied separately and together. The results show the ability of the model to represent the simultaneous value of the wind stress, SST and sea level, when the fields are limited to the latitude band 10 deg S - 10 deg N. In this first application of the Kalman Filter to a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction model, the sea level fields are assimilated in terms of the Kelvin and Rossby modes of the thermocline depth anomaly. An estimation of the error of these modes is derived from the projection of an estimation of the sea level error over such modes. This method gives a value of 12 for the error of the Kelvin amplitude, and 6 m of error for the Rossby component of the thermocline depth. The ability of the method to reconstruct the state of the equatorial Pacific and predict its time evolution is demonstrated. The method is shown to be quite robust for predictions I up to six months, and able to predict the onset of the 1997 warm event fifteen months before its occurrence.

  6. Prediction of turning stability using receptance coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jasiewicz, Marcin; Powałka, Bartosz

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents an issue of machining stability prediction of dynamic "lathe - workpiece" system evaluated using receptance coupling method. Dynamic properties of the lathe components (the spindle and the tailstock) are assumed to be constant and can be determined experimentally based on the results of the impact test. Hence, the variable of the system "machine tool - holder - workpiece" is the machined part, which can be easily modelled analytically. The method of receptance coupling enables a synthesis of experimental (spindle, tailstock) and analytical (machined part) models, so impact testing of the entire system becomes unnecessary. The paper presents methodology of analytical and experimental models synthesis, evaluation of the stability lobes and experimental validation procedure involving both the determination of the dynamic properties of the system and cutting tests. In the summary the experimental verification results would be presented and discussed.

  7. International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) in Near-Real Time (NRT)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) Near-Real-Time (NRT) product is an extension of the official ICOADS dataset with preliminary...

  8. International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) with Enhanced Trimming, Release 3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset contains the latest official release of International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) with Enhanced Trimming, provided in a common...

  9. International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) Release 3.0 - Monthly Summary Groups (MSG)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset, the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS), is the most widely-used freely available collection of surface marine observations,...

  10. International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) And NCEI Global Marine Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) consists of digital data set DSI-1173, archived at the National Center for Environmental Information...

  11. Identification of Holocene millennial-scale forcing in the North Atlantic area: Ocean/atmosphere contribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debret, M.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Christophe, C.; de Vernal, A.; Massei, N.; Eynaud, F.; Nicolle, M.; Frank, N.; Mary, Y.; Magny, M.

    2017-12-01

    Millennial (1500-year) cycles were evidenced decades ago from the advance and retreat of glaciers but many subsequent studies failed to demonstrate the unequivocal character of such oscillation from paleoclimate time series. Hence, the identification of a persistent 1500 year periodicity remains controversial both for the last glacial episode and the Holocene. Applying wavelet analysis to Holocene climate records, we have identified synchronous millennial-scale oscillations which permit to establish a North Atlantic millennial variability index (NAV-Index), maximum at 5330 ± 245, 3560 ± 190, 1810 ± 160 cal years BP and minimum at 4430 ± 250, 2640 ± 225 and 970 ± 200 years before present. This NAV-index was compared with the millennial variability of cosmogenic 10Be isotope, a proxy of solar activity. Differences between the two sets of records suggest that an internal mechanism (Ocean/atmosphere) must be at the origin of the North Atlantic millennial scale variability. Our data document an increased coherence and magnitude of the North Atlantic millennial variability since 6000 cal. years BP, with a frequency of 1780 ± 240 years. During the early Holocene, deglacial meltwater fluxes had strong regional impact and the coupling between subpolar gyre migration and Atlantic meridional oceanic circulation observed since afterward seems to be related to the end of the Laurentide and Inuitian ice sheet meltwater discharge. Hence, we may conclude that the evolution of this millennial oscillation in the future will depend upon the Greenland stability or melting.

  12. LOSCAR: Long-term Ocean-atmosphere-Sediment CArbon cycle Reservoir Model v2.0.4

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. E. Zeebe

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The LOSCAR model is designed to efficiently compute the partitioning of carbon between ocean, atmosphere, and sediments on time scales ranging from centuries to millions of years. While a variety of computationally inexpensive carbon cycle models are already available, many are missing a critical sediment component, which is indispensable for long-term integrations. One of LOSCAR's strengths is the coupling of ocean-atmosphere routines to a computationally efficient sediment module. This allows, for instance, adequate computation of CaCO3 dissolution, calcite compensation, and long-term carbon cycle fluxes, including weathering of carbonate and silicate rocks. The ocean component includes various biogeochemical tracers such as total carbon, alkalinity, phosphate, oxygen, and stable carbon isotopes. LOSCAR's configuration of ocean geometry is flexible and allows for easy switching between modern and paleo-versions. We have previously published applications of the model tackling future projections of ocean chemistry and weathering, pCO2 sensitivity to carbon cycle perturbations throughout the Cenozoic, and carbon/calcium cycling during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. The focus of the present contribution is the detailed description of the model including numerical architecture, processes and parameterizations, tuning, and examples of input and output. Typical CPU integration times of LOSCAR are of order seconds for several thousand model years on current standard desktop machines. The LOSCAR source code in C can be obtained from the author by sending a request to loscar.model@gmail.com.

  13. Deficiencies and possibilities for long-lead coupled climate prediction of the Western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sun-Seon; Ha, Kyung-Ja [Pusan National University, Division of Earth Environmental System, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii, Department of Meteorology and International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Schemm, Jae Kyung E. [Climate Prediction Center/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2011-03-15

    Long-lead prediction of waxing and waning of the Western North Pacific (WNP)-East Asian (EA) summer monsoon (WNP-EASM) precipitation is a major challenge in seasonal time-scale climate prediction. In this study, deficiencies and potential for predicting the WNP-EASM precipitation and circulation one or two seasons ahead were examined using retrospective forecast data for the 26-year period of 1981-2006 from two operational couple models which are the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) and the Bureau of Meteorology Research Center (BMRC) Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). While both coupled models have difficulty in predicting summer mean precipitation anomalies over the region of interest, even for a 0-month lead forecast, they are capable of predicting zonal wind anomalies at 850 hPa several months ahead and, consequently, satisfactorily predict summer monsoon circulation indices for the EA region (EASMI) and for the WNP region (WNPSMI). It should be noted that the two models' multi-model ensemble (MME) reaches 0.40 of the correlation skill for the EASMI with a January initial condition and 0.75 for the WNPSMI with a February initial condition. Further analysis indicates that prediction reliability of the EASMI is related not only to the preceding El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but also to simultaneous local SST variability. On other hand, better prediction of the WNPSMI is accompanied by a more realistic simulation of lead-lag relationship between the index and ENSO. It should also be noted that current coupled models have difficulty in capturing the interannual variability component of the WNP-EASM system which is not correlated with typical ENSO variability. To improve the long-lead seasonal prediction of the WNP-EASM precipitation, a statistical postprocessing was developed based on the multiple linear regression method. The method utilizes the MME prediction of the EASMI and

  14. Processes analysis of ocean-atmosphere interaction in Colombian marine areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melo, Jeimmy; Pabon Caicedo, Jose Daniel

    2002-01-01

    This document shows the importance to understanding the processes of interaction ocean-atmosphere by means of the knowledge of the behavior of the physical and biological processes in the Colombian marine areas. For such aim, it was studied the production of the pigment concentration (chlorophyll-a) by means the state of the sea surface temperature and the atmospheric dynamics for year 2001

  15. An analysis of seasonal predictability in coupled model forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peng, P.; Wang, W. [NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Washington, DC (United States); Kumar, A. [NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Washington, DC (United States); NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2011-02-15

    In the recent decade, operational seasonal prediction systems based on initialized coupled models have been developed. An analysis of how the predictability of seasonal means in the initialized coupled predictions evolves with lead-time is presented. Because of the short lead-time, such an analysis for the temporal behavior of seasonal predictability involves a mix of both the predictability of the first and the second kind. The analysis focuses on the lead-time dependence of ensemble mean variance, and the forecast spread. Further, the analysis is for a fixed target season of December-January-February, and is for sea surface temperature, rainfall, and 200-mb height. The analysis is based on a large set of hindcasts from an initialized coupled seasonal prediction system. Various aspects of predictability of the first and the second kind are highlighted for variables with long (for example, SST), and fast (for example, atmospheric) adjustment time scale. An additional focus of the analysis is how the predictability in the initialized coupled seasonal predictions compares with estimates based on the AMIP simulations. The results indicate that differences in the set up of AMIP simulations and coupled predictions, for example, representation of air-sea interactions, and evolution of forecast spread from initial conditions do not change fundamental conclusion about the seasonal predictability. A discussion of the analysis presented herein, and its implications for the use of AMIP simulations for climate attribution, and for time-slice experiments to provide regional information, is also included. (orig.)

  16. Development and validation of a regional coupled forecasting system for S2S forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, R.; Subramanian, A. C.; Hoteit, I.; Miller, A. J.; Ralph, M.; Cornuelle, B. D.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate and efficient forecasting of oceanic and atmospheric circulation is essential for a wide variety of high-impact societal needs, including: weather extremes; environmental protection and coastal management; management of fisheries, marine conservation; water resources; and renewable energy. Effective forecasting relies on high model fidelity and accurate initialization of the models with observed state of the ocean-atmosphere-land coupled system. A regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the MITGCM ocean model coupled using the ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) coupling framework is developed to resolve mesoscale air-sea feedbacks. The regional coupled model allows oceanic mixed layer heat and momentum to interact with the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics at the mesoscale and submesoscale spatiotemporal regimes, thus leading to feedbacks which are otherwise not resolved in coarse resolution global coupled forecasting systems or regional uncoupled forecasting systems. The model is tested in two scenarios in the mesoscale eddy rich Red Sea and Western Indian Ocean region as well as mesoscale eddies and fronts of the California Current System. Recent studies show evidence for air-sea interactions involving the oceanic mesoscale in these two regions which can enhance predictability on sub seasonal timescale. We will present results from this newly developed regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model for forecasts over the Red Sea region as well as the California Current region. The forecasts will be validated against insitu observations in the region as well as reanalysis fields.

  17. Assessment of the APCC Coupled MME Suite in Predicting the Distinctive Climate Impacts of Two Flavors of ENSO during Boreal Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Hye-In; Lee, Doo Young; Karumuri, Ashok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Lee, June-Yi; Luo, Jing-Jia; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Hendon, Harry H.; Braganza, Karl; Ham, Yoo-Geun

    2012-01-01

    Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 19822004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events.

  18. Effect of Modulation of ENSO by Decadal and Multidecadal Ocean-Atmospheric Oscillations on Continental US Streamflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, S.; Abebe, A.; Srivastava, P.; Chaubey, I.

    2017-12-01

    Evaluation of the influences of individual and coupled oceanic-atmospheric oscillations on streamflow at a regional scale in the United States is the focus of this study. The main climatic oscillations considered in this study are: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Unimpacted or minimally impacted by water management streamflow data from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) were used in this study. Two robust and novel non-parametric tests, namely, the rank based partial least square (PLS) and the Joint Rank Fit (JRFit) procedures were used to identify the individual and coupled effect of oscillations on streamflow across continental U.S. (CONUS), respectively. Moreover, the interactive effects of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal cycles were tested and quantified using the JRFit interaction test. The analysis of ENSO indicated higher streamflows during La Niña phase compared to the El Niño phase in Northwest, Northeast and the lower part of Ohio Valley while the opposite occurs for rest of the climatic regions in US. Two distinct climate regions (Northwest and Southeast) were identified from the PDO analysis where PDO negative phase results in increased streamflow than PDO positive phase. Consistent negative and positive correlated regions around the CONUS were identified for AMO and NAO, respectively. The interaction test of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal oscillations showed that El Niño is modulated by the negative phase of PDO and NAO, and the positive phase of AMO, respectively, in the Upper Midwest. However, La Niña is modulated by the positive phase of AMO and PDO in Ohio Valley and Northeast while in Southeast and the South it is modulated by AMO negative phase. Results of this study will assist water managers to understand the streamflow change patterns across the CONUS at decadal and multi-decadal time scales. The

  19. Predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems: I. Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacuci, Dan Gabriel

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We developed “predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems (PMCMPS)”. • PMCMPS reduces predicted uncertainties in predicted model responses and parameters. • PMCMPS treats efficiently very large coupled systems. - Abstract: This work presents an innovative mathematical methodology for “predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems (PMCMPS).” This methodology takes into account fully the coupling terms between the systems but requires only the computational resources that would be needed to perform predictive modeling on each system separately. The PMCMPS methodology uses the maximum entropy principle to construct an optimal approximation of the unknown a priori distribution based on a priori known mean values and uncertainties characterizing the parameters and responses for both multi-physics models. This “maximum entropy”-approximate a priori distribution is combined, using Bayes’ theorem, with the “likelihood” provided by the multi-physics simulation models. Subsequently, the posterior distribution thus obtained is evaluated using the saddle-point method to obtain analytical expressions for the optimally predicted values for the multi-physics models parameters and responses along with corresponding reduced uncertainties. Noteworthy, the predictive modeling methodology for the coupled systems is constructed such that the systems can be considered sequentially rather than simultaneously, while preserving exactly the same results as if the systems were treated simultaneously. Consequently, very large coupled systems, which could perhaps exceed available computational resources if treated simultaneously, can be treated with the PMCMPS methodology presented in this work sequentially and without any loss of generality or information, requiring just the resources that would be needed if the systems were treated sequentially

  20. Predicting the Coupling Properties of Axially-Textured Materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María E. Fuentes-Montero

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A description of methods and computer programs for the prediction of “coupling properties” in axially-textured polycrystals is presented. Starting data are the single-crystal properties, texture and stereography. The validity and proper protocols for applying the Voigt, Reuss and Hill approximations to estimate coupling properties effective values is analyzed. Working algorithms for predicting mentioned averages are given. Bunge’s symmetrized spherical harmonics expansion of orientation distribution functions, inverse pole figures and (single and polycrystals physical properties is applied in all stages of the proposed methodology. The established mathematical route has been systematized in a working computer program. The discussion of piezoelectricity in a representative textured ferro-piezoelectric ceramic illustrates the application of the proposed methodology. Polycrystal coupling properties, predicted by the suggested route, are fairly close to experimentally measured ones.

  1. Predicting the Coupling Properties of Axially-Textured Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes-Cobas, Luis E.; Muñoz-Romero, Alejandro; Montero-Cabrera, María E.; Fuentes-Montero, Luis; Fuentes-Montero, María E.

    2013-01-01

    A description of methods and computer programs for the prediction of “coupling properties” in axially-textured polycrystals is presented. Starting data are the single-crystal properties, texture and stereography. The validity and proper protocols for applying the Voigt, Reuss and Hill approximations to estimate coupling properties effective values is analyzed. Working algorithms for predicting mentioned averages are given. Bunge’s symmetrized spherical harmonics expansion of orientation distribution functions, inverse pole figures and (single and polycrystals) physical properties is applied in all stages of the proposed methodology. The established mathematical route has been systematized in a working computer program. The discussion of piezoelectricity in a representative textured ferro-piezoelectric ceramic illustrates the application of the proposed methodology. Polycrystal coupling properties, predicted by the suggested route, are fairly close to experimentally measured ones. PMID:28788370

  2. Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling associated with Typhoons/ Hurricane and their impacts on marine ecosystem (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, D. L.

    2010-12-01

    DanLing TANG South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou, China Phone (86) 13924282728; Fax/Tel: (86) 020 89023203 (off), 020 89023191 (Lab),Email,lingzistdl@126.com, Typhoon / hurricane activities and their impacts on environments have been strengthening in both intensity and spatial coverage, along with global changes in the past several decades; however, our knowledge about impact of typhoon on the marine ecosystem is very scarce. We have conducted a series studies in the South China Sea (SCS), investigating phytoplankton, sea surface temperature (SST), fishery data and related factors before, during, and after typhoon. Satellite remote sensing and in situ observation data obtained from research cruise were applied. Our study showed that typhoon can support nutrients to surface phytoplankton by inducing upwelling and vertical mixing, and typhoon rain can also nourish marine phytoplankton; both typhoon winds and rain can enhance production of marine phytoplankton. Slow-moving typhoon induced phytoplankton blooms of higher Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), the strong typhoon induced phytoplankton blooms of a large area. We conservatively estimate that typhoon periods may account for 3.5% of the annual primary production in the oligotrophic SCS. It indicated that one typhoon may induce transport of nutrient-rich water from depth and from the coast to offshore regions, nourishing phytoplankton biomass. More observations confirmed that typhoon can induce cold eddy, and cold eddy can support eddy-shape phytoplankton bloom by upwelling. We have suggested a new index to evaluate typhoon impact on marine ecosystem and environment. This is the first time to report moving eddies and eddy-shape phytoplankton blooms associated with tropical cyclone, the relationship among tropical cyclone, cold eddy upwelling and eddy-shape phytoplankton bloom may give some viewpoint on the tropical cyclone's affection on the mesoscale circulation. Those studies may help better understand the mechanism of typhoon impacts on marine ecosystem, and the role of typhoon in the global environmental changes. The present research was supported by the following grants awarded to D.L.TANG: (1) National Natural Science Foundation of China (40976091, 40811140533) and Guangdong Natural Science Foundation, China (8351030101000002); (2) Chinese Academy of Sciences (kzcx2-yw-226 and LYQ200701);

  3. Predicting Magnetoelectric Coupling in Layered and Graded Composites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirza Bichurin

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Magnetoelectric (ME interaction in magnetostrictive-piezoelectric multiferroic structures consists in inducing the electric field across the structure in an applied magnetic field and is a product property of magnetostriction and piezoelectricity in components. ME voltage coefficient that is the ratio of induced electric field to applied magnetic field is the key parameter of ME coupling strength. It has been known that the ME coupling strength is dictated by the product of the piezoelectric and piezomagnetic coefficients of initial phases. As a result, using the laminates with graded piezoelectric and piezomagnetic parameters are a new pathway to the increase in the ME coupling strength. Recently developed models predict stronger ME interactions in composites based on graded components compared to homogeneous ones. We discuss predicting the ME coupling strength for layered structures of homogeneous and compositionally graded magnetostrictive and piezoelectric components based on the graphs of ME voltage coefficients against composite parameters. For obtaining the graphs, we developed equations for ME output in applied magnetic field for possible modes of operation and layered structure configurations. In particular, our studies have been performed on low-frequency ME coupling, enhanced ME effect in electromechanical resonance (EMR region for longitudinal and bending modes. Additionally, ME coupling at magnetic resonance in magnetostrictive component and at overlapping the EMR and magnetic resonance is investigated. We considered symmetric trilayers and asymmetric bilayers of magnetostrictive and piezoelectric components and multilayered structures based on compositionally stepped initial components.

  4. Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Demissie, Teferi D.; Counillon, François; Wang, Yiguo; Viste, Ellen

    2017-11-01

    The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June-September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985-2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Niño3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation.

  5. The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Huw W.; Castillo Sanchez, Juan Manuel; Graham, Jennifer; Saulter, Andrew; Bornemann, Jorge; Arnold, Alex; Fallmann, Joachim; Harris, Chris; Pearson, David; Ramsdale, Steven; Martínez-de la Torre, Alberto; Bricheno, Lucy; Blyth, Eleanor; Bell, Victoria A.; Davies, Helen; Marthews, Toby R.; O'Neill, Clare; Rumbold, Heather; O'Dea, Enda; Brereton, Ashley; Guihou, Karen; Hines, Adrian; Butenschon, Momme; Dadson, Simon J.; Palmer, Tamzin; Holt, Jason; Reynard, Nick; Best, Martin; Edwards, John; Siddorn, John

    2018-01-01

    It is hypothesized that more accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather mediated through various components of the environment, require a more integrated Earth System approach to forecasting. This hypothesis can be explored using regional coupled prediction systems, in which the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land can be simulated. Such systems are becoming increasingly common research tools. This paper describes the development of the UKC2 regional coupled research system, which has been delivered under the UK Environmental Prediction Prototype project. This provides the first implementation of an atmosphere-land-ocean-wave modelling system focussed on the United Kingdom and surrounding seas at km-scale resolution. The UKC2 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III). These components are coupled, via OASIS3-MCT libraries, at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK within a north-western European regional domain. A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a new research tool for UK environmental science. This paper documents the technical design and implementation of UKC2, along with the associated evaluation framework. An analysis of new results comparing the output of the coupled UKC2 system with relevant forced control simulations for six contrasting case studies of 5-day duration is presented. Results demonstrate that performance can be achieved with the UKC2 system that is at least comparable to its component control simulations. For some cases, improvements in air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period highlight the potential

  6. The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. W. Lewis

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available It is hypothesized that more accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather mediated through various components of the environment, require a more integrated Earth System approach to forecasting. This hypothesis can be explored using regional coupled prediction systems, in which the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land can be simulated. Such systems are becoming increasingly common research tools. This paper describes the development of the UKC2 regional coupled research system, which has been delivered under the UK Environmental Prediction Prototype project. This provides the first implementation of an atmosphere–land–ocean–wave modelling system focussed on the United Kingdom and surrounding seas at km-scale resolution. The UKC2 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model, land surface with river routing (JULES, shelf-sea ocean (NEMO and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III. These components are coupled, via OASIS3-MCT libraries, at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK within a north-western European regional domain. A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a new research tool for UK environmental science. This paper documents the technical design and implementation of UKC2, along with the associated evaluation framework. An analysis of new results comparing the output of the coupled UKC2 system with relevant forced control simulations for six contrasting case studies of 5-day duration is presented. Results demonstrate that performance can be achieved with the UKC2 system that is at least comparable to its component control simulations. For some cases, improvements in air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period

  7. Forecasting of rainfall using ocean-atmospheric indices with a fuzzy neural technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Gaurav; Panda, Sudhindra N.; Mondal, Pratap; Liu, Junguo

    2010-12-01

    SummaryForecasting of rainfall is imperative for rainfed agriculture of arid and semi-arid regions of the world where agriculture consumes nearly 80% of the total water demand. Fuzzy-Ranking Algorithm (FRA) is used to identify the significant input variables for rainfall forecast. A case study is carried out to forecast monthly rainfall in India with several ocean-atmospheric predictor variables. Three different scenarios of ocean-atmospheric predictor variables are used as a set of possible input variables for rainfall forecasting model: (1) two climate indices, i.e. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDOI); (2) Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the 5° × 5° grid points in Indian Ocean; and (3) both the climate indices and SSTa. To generate a set of possible input variables for these scenarios, we use climatic indices and the SSTa data with different lags between 1 and 12 months. Nonlinear relationship between identified inputs and rainfall is captured with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique. A new approach based on fuzzy c-mean clustering is proposed for dividing data into representative subsets for training, testing, and validation. The results show that this proposed approach overcomes the difficulty in determining optimal numbers of clusters associated with the data division technique of self-organized map. The ANN model developed with both the climate indices and SSTa shows the best performance for the forecast of the monthly August rainfall in India. Similar approach can be applied to forecast rainfall of any period at selected climatic regions of the world where significant relationship exists between the rainfall and climate indices.

  8. Air-Sea Coupling Over The Equatorial Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopika, N.

    S, where thermocline domes, the ocean is tightly coupled to the atmosphere [Reverdin, 1987; Murtugudde and Busalacchi, 1999; Xie et al, 2002] and therefore expected to influence the regional climate variability. In recent years Saji et al. [1999] showed... the forcing- response pattern of the ocean-atmosphere as a coupled system. For example, the anomalous ocean-atmosphere coupled phenomena like Indian Ocean Dipole mode produces anomalous atmospheric and oceanic condition that influence regional climate...

  9. Using the Model Coupling Toolkit to couple earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, J.C.; Perlin, N.; Skyllingstad, E.D.

    2008-01-01

    Continued advances in computational resources are providing the opportunity to operate more sophisticated numerical models. Additionally, there is an increasing demand for multidisciplinary studies that include interactions between different physical processes. Therefore there is a strong desire to develop coupled modeling systems that utilize existing models and allow efficient data exchange and model control. The basic system would entail model "1" running on "M" processors and model "2" running on "N" processors, with efficient exchange of model fields at predetermined synchronization intervals. Here we demonstrate two coupled systems: the coupling of the ocean circulation model Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to the surface wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), and the coupling of ROMS to the atmospheric model Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Prediction System (COAMPS). Both coupled systems use the Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) as a mechanism for operation control and inter-model distributed memory transfer of model variables. In this paper we describe requirements and other options for model coupling, explain the MCT library, ROMS, SWAN and COAMPS models, methods for grid decomposition and sparse matrix interpolation, and provide an example from each coupled system. Methods presented in this paper are clearly applicable for coupling of other types of models. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Observations of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Volume Loss and Its Impact on Ocean-Atmosphere Energy Exchange and Ice Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurtz, N. T.; Markus, T.; Farrell, S. L.; Worthen, D. L.; Boisvert, L. N.

    2011-01-01

    Using recently developed techniques we estimate snow and sea ice thickness distributions for the Arctic basin through the combination of freeboard data from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and a snow depth model. These data are used with meteorological data and a thermodynamic sea ice model to calculate ocean-atmosphere heat exchange and ice volume production during the 2003-2008 fall and winter seasons. The calculated heat fluxes and ice growth rates are in agreement with previous observations over multiyear ice. In this study, we calculate heat fluxes and ice growth rates for the full distribution of ice thicknesses covering the Arctic basin and determine the impact of ice thickness change on the calculated values. Thinning of the sea ice is observed which greatly increases the 2005-2007 fall period ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes compared to those observed in 2003. Although there was also a decline in sea ice thickness for the winter periods, the winter time heat flux was found to be less impacted by the observed changes in ice thickness. A large increase in the net Arctic ocean-atmosphere heat output is also observed in the fall periods due to changes in the areal coverage of sea ice. The anomalously low sea ice coverage in 2007 led to a net ocean-atmosphere heat output approximately 3 times greater than was observed in previous years and suggests that sea ice losses are now playing a role in increasing surface air temperatures in the Arctic.

  11. Predicting SPE Fluxes: Coupled Simulations and Analysis Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorby, M.; Schwadron, N.; Linker, J.; Caplan, R. M.; Wijaya, J.; Downs, C.; Lionello, R.

    2017-12-01

    Presented here is a nuts-and-bolts look at the coupled framework of Predictive Science Inc's Magnetohydrodynamics Around a Sphere (MAS) code and the Energetic Particle Radiation Environment Module (EPREM). MAS simulated coronal mass ejection output from a variety of events can be selected as the MHD input to EPREM and a variety of parameters can be set to run against: bakground seed particle spectra, mean free path, perpendicular diffusion efficiency, etc.. A standard set of visualizations are produced as well as a library of analysis tools for deeper inquiries. All steps will be covered end-to-end as well as the framework's user interface and availability.

  12. Scaling laws for perturbations in the ocean-atmosphere system following large CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towles, N.; Olson, P.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2015-07-01

    Scaling relationships are found for perturbations to atmosphere and ocean variables from large transient CO2 emissions. Using the Long-term Ocean-atmosphere-Sediment CArbon cycle Reservoir (LOSCAR) model (Zeebe et al., 2009; Zeebe, 2012b), we calculate perturbations to atmosphere temperature, total carbon, ocean temperature, total ocean carbon, pH, alkalinity, marine-sediment carbon, and carbon-13 isotope anomalies in the ocean and atmosphere resulting from idealized CO2 emission events. The peak perturbations in the atmosphere and ocean variables are then fit to power law functions of the form of γ DαEβ, where D is the event duration, E is its total carbon emission, and γ is a coefficient. Good power law fits are obtained for most system variables for E up to 50 000 PgC and D up to 100 kyr. Although all of the peak perturbations increase with emission rate E/D, we find no evidence of emission-rate-only scaling, α + β = 0. Instead, our scaling yields α + β ≃ 1 for total ocean and atmosphere carbon and 0 < α + β < 1 for most of the other system variables.

  13. AMS Observations over Coastal California from the Biological and Oceanic Atmospheric Study (BOAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, K. H.; Coggon, M. M.; Hodas, N.; Negron, A.; Ortega, A. M.; Crosbie, E.; Sorooshian, A.; Nenes, A.; Flagan, R. C.; Seinfeld, J.

    2015-12-01

    In July 2015, fifteen research flights were conducted on a US Navy Twin Otter aircraft as part of the Biological and Oceanic Atmospheric Study (BOAS) campaign. The flights took place near the California coast at Monterey, to investigate the effects of sea surface temperature and algal blooms on oceanic particulate emissions, the diurnal mixing of urban pollution with other airmasses, and the impacts of biological aerosols on the California atmosphere. The aircraft's payload included an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS), a differential mobility analyzer, a cloud condensation nuclei counter, a counterflow virtual impactor, a cloudwater collector, and two instruments designed to detect biological aerosols - a wideband integrated biological spectrometer and a SpinCon II - as well as a number of meteorology and aerosol probes, two condensation particle counters, and instruments to measure gas-phase CO, CO2, O3, and NOx. Here, we describe in depth the objectives and outcomes of BOAS and report preliminary results, primarily from the AMS. We detail the spatial characteristics and meteorological variability of speciated aerosol components over a strong and persistent bloom of Pseudo-Nitzschia, the harmful algae that cause 'red tide', and report newly identified AMS markers for biological particles. Finally, we compare these results with data collected during BOAS over urban, forested, and agricultural environments, and describe the mixing observed between oceanic and terrestrial airmasses.

  14. Decadal Variations in Eastern Canada's Taiga Wood Biomass Production Forced by Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucher, Etienne; Nicault, Antoine; Arseneault, Dominique; Bégin, Yves; Karami, Mehdi Pasha

    2017-05-26

    Across Eastern Canada (EC), taiga forests represent an important carbon reservoir, but the extent to which climate variability affects this ecosystem over decades remains uncertain. Here, we analyze an extensive network of black spruce (Picea mariana Mill.) ring width and wood density measurements and provide new evidence that wood biomass production is influenced by large-scale, internal ocean-atmosphere processes. We show that while black spruce wood biomass production is primarily governed by growing season temperatures, the Atlantic ocean conveys heat from the subtropics and influences the decadal persistence in taiga forests productivity. Indeed, we argue that 20-30 years periodicities in Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) as part of the the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) directly influence heat transfers to adjacent lands. Winter atmospheric conditions associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) might also impact EC's taiga forests, albeit indirectly, through its effect on SSTs and sea ice conditions in surrounding seas. Our work emphasizes that taiga forests would benefit from the combined effects of a warmer atmosphere and stronger ocean-to-land heat transfers, whereas a weakening of these transfers could cancel out, for decades or longer, the positive effects of climate change on Eastern Canada's largest ecosystem.

  15. Ocean-atmosphere forcing of centennial hydroclimatic variability in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinman, Byron A.; Abbott, Mark B.; Mann, Michael E.; Ortiz, Joseph D.; Feng, Song; Pompeani, David P.; Stansell, Nathan D.; Anderson, Lesleigh; Finney, Bruce P.; Bird, Broxton W.

    2014-01-01

    Reconstructing centennial timescale hydroclimate variability during the late Holocene is critically important for understanding large-scale patterns of drought and their relationship with climate dynamics. We present sediment oxygen isotope records spanning the last two millennia from 10 lakes, as well as climate model simulations, indicating that the Little Ice Age was dry relative to the Medieval Climate Anomaly in much of the Pacific Northwest of North America. This pattern is consistent with observed associations between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Northern Annular Mode and drought as well as with proxy-based reconstructions of Pacific ocean-atmosphere variations over the past 1000 years. The large amplitude of centennial variability indicated by the lake data suggests that regional hydroclimate is characterized by longer-term shifts in ENSO-like dynamics, and that an improved understanding of the centennial timescale relationship between external forcing and drought conditions is necessary for projecting future hydroclimatic conditions in western North America.

  16. CFD-FEM coupling for accurate prediction of thermal fatigue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hannink, M.H.C.; Kuczaj, A.K.; Blom, F.J.; Church, J.M.; Komen, E.M.J.

    2009-01-01

    Thermal fatigue is a safety related issue in primary pipework systems of nuclear power plants. Life extension of current reactors and the design of a next generation of new reactors lead to growing importance of research in this direction. The thermal fatigue degradation mechanism is induced by temperature fluctuations in a fluid, which arise from mixing of hot and cold flows. Accompanied physical phenomena include thermal stratification, thermal striping, and turbulence [1]. Current plant instrumentation systems allow monitoring of possible causes as stratification and temperature gradients at fatigue susceptible locations [1]. However, high-cycle temperature fluctuations associated with turbulent mixing cannot be adequately detected by common thermocouple instrumentations. For a proper evaluation of thermal fatigue, therefore, numerical simulations are necessary that couple instantaneous fluid and solid interactions. In this work, a strategy for the numerical prediction of thermal fatigue is presented. The approach couples Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and the Finite Element Method (FEM). For the development of the computational approach, a classical test case for the investigation of thermal fatigue problems is studied, i.e. mixing in a T-junction. Due to turbulent mixing of hot and cold fluids in two perpendicularly connected pipes, temperature fluctuations arise in the mixing zone downstream in the flow. Subsequently, these temperature fluctuations are also induced in the pipes. The stresses that arise due to the fluctuations may eventually lead to thermal fatigue. In the first step of the applied procedure, the temperature fluctuations in both fluid and structure are calculated using the CFD method. Subsequently, the temperature fluctuations in the structure are imposed as thermal loads in a FEM model of the pipes. A mechanical analysis is then performed to determine the thermal stresses, which are used to predict the fatigue lifetime of the structure

  17. Natural climate variability in a coupled model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zebiak, S.E.; Cane, M.A.

    1990-01-01

    Multi-century simulations with a simplified coupled ocean-atmosphere model are described. These simulations reveal an impressive range of variability on decadal and longer time scales, in addition to the dominant interannual el Nino/Southern Oscillation signal that the model originally was designed to simulate. Based on a very large sample of century-long simulations, it is nonetheless possible to identify distinct model parameter sensitivities that are described here in terms of selected indices. Preliminary experiments motivated by general circulation model results for increasing greenhouse gases suggest a definite sensitivity to model global warming. While these results are not definitive, they strongly suggest that coupled air-sea dynamics figure prominently in global change and must be included in models for reliable predictions

  18. International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) Release 3 Final, Individual Reports in the International Maritime Meteorological Archive Format version 1 (IMMA1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset, the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS), is the most widely-used freely available collection of surface marine observations,...

  19. Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, Scott; Colman, Rob [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2006-02-01

    Multi-year to decadal variability in a 100-year integration of a BMRC coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) is examined. The fractional contribution made by the decadal component generally increases with depth and latitude away from surface waters in the equatorial Indo-Pacific Ocean. The relative importance of decadal variability is enhanced in off-equatorial ''wings'' in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The model and observations exhibit ''ENSO-like'' decadal patterns. Analytic results are derived, which show that the patterns can, in theory, occur in the absence of any predictability beyond ENSO time-scales. In practice, however, modification to this stochastic view is needed to account for robust differences between ENSO-like decadal patterns and their interannual counterparts. An analysis of variability in the CGCM, a wind-forced shallow water model, and a simple mixed layer model together with existing and new theoretical results are used to improve upon this stochastic paradigm and to provide a new theory for the origin of decadal ENSO-like patterns like the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In this theory, ENSO-driven wind-stress variability forces internal equatorially-trapped Kelvin waves that propagate towards the eastern boundary. Kelvin waves can excite reflected internal westward propagating equatorially-trapped Rossby waves (RWs) and coastally-trapped waves (CTWs). CTWs have no impact on the off-equatorial sub-surface ocean outside the coastal wave guide, whereas the RWs do. If the frequency of the incident wave is too high, then only CTWs are excited. At lower frequencies, both CTWs and RWs can be excited. The lower the frequency, the greater the fraction of energy transmitted to RWs. This lowers the characteristic frequency of variability off the equator relative to its equatorial counterpart. Both the eastern boundary interactions and the accumulation of

  20. Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Site Map News Oceanic & Atmospheric Monitoring and Data Monitoring Weather & Climate in Realtime Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Preliminary Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Figures Monthly Atmospheric & Sea Surface

  1. Application of coupled ocean-atmospheric RTM SCIATRAN to retrieve chlorophyll and CDOM fluorescence from space: first results

    OpenAIRE

    Wolanin, Aleksandra; Dinter, Tilman; Rozanov, V.; Bracher, Astrid

    2012-01-01

    Colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is the main abiotic photoreactive constituent in marine waters. It strongly absorbs light in UV and blue region of light spectrum, reducing potentially harmful UV radiation, but also - when abundant - limiting the amount of light available for photosynthesis. DOM is a significant element in the carbon cycle and thus its optical properties have been studied extensively to estimate CDOM concentration and characterize its chemical composition. It has...

  2. Predicting Marital and Career Success among Dual-worker Couples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journal of Marriage and the Family, 1982

    1982-01-01

    Reviews research both supportive and skeptical of theories (based upon status competition processes, status incompatibility, complementary needs, and threat to gender identity) which posit that stress is created in marriages where the wife's occupational achievements exceed the husband's. Posits a theory explaining which couples will succeed in…

  3. A Grey NGM(1,1,k Self-Memory Coupling Prediction Model for Energy Consumption Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaojun Guo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Energy consumption prediction is an important issue for governments, energy sector investors, and other related corporations. Although there are several prediction techniques, selection of the most appropriate technique is of vital importance. As for the approximate nonhomogeneous exponential data sequence often emerging in the energy system, a novel grey NGM(1,1,k self-memory coupling prediction model is put forward in order to promote the predictive performance. It achieves organic integration of the self-memory principle of dynamic system and grey NGM(1,1,k model. The traditional grey model’s weakness as being sensitive to initial value can be overcome by the self-memory principle. In this study, total energy, coal, and electricity consumption of China is adopted for demonstration by using the proposed coupling prediction technique. The results show the superiority of NGM(1,1,k self-memory coupling prediction model when compared with the results from the literature. Its excellent prediction performance lies in that the proposed coupling model can take full advantage of the systematic multitime historical data and catch the stochastic fluctuation tendency. This work also makes a significant contribution to the enrichment of grey prediction theory and the extension of its application span.

  4. A grey NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model for energy consumption prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiaojun; Liu, Sifeng; Wu, Lifeng; Tang, Lingling

    2014-01-01

    Energy consumption prediction is an important issue for governments, energy sector investors, and other related corporations. Although there are several prediction techniques, selection of the most appropriate technique is of vital importance. As for the approximate nonhomogeneous exponential data sequence often emerging in the energy system, a novel grey NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model is put forward in order to promote the predictive performance. It achieves organic integration of the self-memory principle of dynamic system and grey NGM(1,1, k) model. The traditional grey model's weakness as being sensitive to initial value can be overcome by the self-memory principle. In this study, total energy, coal, and electricity consumption of China is adopted for demonstration by using the proposed coupling prediction technique. The results show the superiority of NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model when compared with the results from the literature. Its excellent prediction performance lies in that the proposed coupling model can take full advantage of the systematic multitime historical data and catch the stochastic fluctuation tendency. This work also makes a significant contribution to the enrichment of grey prediction theory and the extension of its application span.

  5. A Grey NGM(1,1, k) Self-Memory Coupling Prediction Model for Energy Consumption Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiaojun; Liu, Sifeng; Wu, Lifeng; Tang, Lingling

    2014-01-01

    Energy consumption prediction is an important issue for governments, energy sector investors, and other related corporations. Although there are several prediction techniques, selection of the most appropriate technique is of vital importance. As for the approximate nonhomogeneous exponential data sequence often emerging in the energy system, a novel grey NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model is put forward in order to promote the predictive performance. It achieves organic integration of the self-memory principle of dynamic system and grey NGM(1,1, k) model. The traditional grey model's weakness as being sensitive to initial value can be overcome by the self-memory principle. In this study, total energy, coal, and electricity consumption of China is adopted for demonstration by using the proposed coupling prediction technique. The results show the superiority of NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model when compared with the results from the literature. Its excellent prediction performance lies in that the proposed coupling model can take full advantage of the systematic multitime historical data and catch the stochastic fluctuation tendency. This work also makes a significant contribution to the enrichment of grey prediction theory and the extension of its application span. PMID:25054174

  6. Local dimension and finite time prediction in coupled map lattices

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In most of the cases these systems often exhibit highly complex type of ... tical applications bred vectors are different in two aspects. Firstly, for bred .... prediction 〈y| x〉 using the conditional distribution obtained from the joint distri- bution p(y, x) ...

  7. Local dimension and finite time prediction in coupled map lattices

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Forecasting, for obvious reasons, often become the most important goal to be achieved. For spatially extended systems (e.g. atmospheric system) where the local nonlinearities lead to the most unpredictable chaotic evolution, it is highly desirable to have a simple diagnostic tool to identify regions of predictable behaviour.

  8. Regional decadal predictions of coupled climate-human systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curchitser, E. N.; Lawrence, P.; Felder, F.; Large, W.; Bacmeister, J. T.; Andrews, C.; Kopp, R. E.

    2016-12-01

    We present results from a project to develop a framework for investigating the interactions between human activity and the climate system using state-of-the-art multi-scale, climate and economic models. The model is applied to the highly industrialized and urbanized coastal region of the northeast US with an emphasis on New Jersey. The framework is developed around the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). The CESM model capabilities are augmented with enhanced resolution of the atmosphere (25 km), land surface (I km) and ocean models (7 km) in our region of interest. To the climate model, we couple human activity models for the utility sector and a 300-equation econometric model with sectorial details of an input-output model for the New Jersey economy. We will present results to date showing the potential impact of climate change on electricity markets on its consequences on economic activity in the region.

  9. The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baehr, J.; Fröhlich, K.; Botzet, M.; Domeisen, D. I. V.; Kornblueh, L.; Notz, D.; Piontek, R.; Pohlmann, H.; Tietsche, S.; Müller, W. A.

    2015-05-01

    A seasonal forecast system is presented, based on the global coupled climate model MPI-ESM as used for CMIP5 simulations. We describe the initialisation of the system and analyse its predictive skill for surface temperature. The presented system is initialised in the atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice component of the model from reanalysis/observations with full field nudging in all three components. For the initialisation of the ensemble, bred vectors with a vertically varying norm are implemented in the ocean component to generate initial perturbations. In a set of ensemble hindcast simulations, starting each May and November between 1982 and 2010, we analyse the predictive skill. Bias-corrected ensemble forecasts for each start date reproduce the observed surface temperature anomalies at 2-4 months lead time, particularly in the tropics. Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies show a small root-mean-square error and predictive skill up to 6 months. Away from the tropics, predictive skill is mostly limited to the ocean, and to regions which are strongly influenced by ENSO teleconnections. In summary, the presented seasonal prediction system based on a coupled climate model shows predictive skill for surface temperature at seasonal time scales comparable to other seasonal prediction systems using different underlying models and initialisation strategies. As the same model underlying our seasonal prediction system—with a different initialisation—is presently also used for decadal predictions, this is an important step towards seamless seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions.

  10. Coupled hygrothermal, electrochemical, and mechanical modelling for deterioration prediction in reinforced cementitious materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, Alexander; Geiker, Mette Rica; Lepech, M.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper a coupled hygrothermal, electrochemical, and mechanical modelling approach for the deterioration prediction in cementitious materials is briefly outlined. Deterioration prediction is thereby based on coupled modelling of (i) chemical processes including among others transport of hea......, i.e. information, such as such as corrosion current density, damage state of concrete cover, etc., are constantly exchanged between the models....... and matter as well as phase assemblage on the nano and micro scale, (ii) corrosion of steel including electrochemical processes at the reinforcement surface, and (iii) material performance including corrosion- and load-induced damages on the meso and macro scale. The individual FEM models are fully coupled...

  11. Accelerated Prediction of the Polar Ice and Global Ocean (APPIGO)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    APPIGO) Eric Chassignet Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies (COAPS) Florida State University PO Box 3062840 Tallahassee, FL 32306...PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Florida Atlantic University,Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies (COAPS),PO Box 3062840...Cavalieri, D. J., C. I. Parkinson , P. Gloersen, and H. J. Zwally. 1997. Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Concentrations from Multichannel Passive-Microwave

  12. A Coupled Probabilistic Wake Vortex and Aircraft Response Prediction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gloudemans, Thijs; Van Lochem, Sander; Ras, Eelco; Malissa, Joel; Ahmad, Nashat N.; Lewis, Timothy A.

    2016-01-01

    Wake vortex spacing standards along with weather and runway occupancy time, restrict terminal area throughput and impose major constraints on the overall capacity and efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS). For more than two decades, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been conducting research on characterizing wake vortex behavior in order to develop fast-time wake transport and decay prediction models. It is expected that the models can be used in the systems level design of advanced air traffic management (ATM) concepts that safely increase the capacity of the NAS. It is also envisioned that at a later stage of maturity, these models could potentially be used operationally, in groundbased spacing and scheduling systems as well as on the flight deck.

  13. Predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems: II. Illustrative application to reactor physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacuci, Dan Gabriel; Badea, Madalina Corina

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We applied the PMCMPS methodology to a paradigm neutron diffusion model. • We underscore the main steps in applying PMCMPS to treat very large coupled systems. • PMCMPS reduces the uncertainties in the optimally predicted responses and model parameters. • PMCMPS is for sequentially treating coupled systems that cannot be treated simultaneously. - Abstract: This work presents paradigm applications to reactor physics of the innovative mathematical methodology for “predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems (PMCMPS)” developed by Cacuci (2014). This methodology enables the assimilation of experimental and computational information and computes optimally predicted responses and model parameters with reduced predicted uncertainties, taking fully into account the coupling terms between the multi-physics systems, but using only the computational resources that would be needed to perform predictive modeling on each system separately. The paradigm examples presented in this work are based on a simple neutron diffusion model, chosen so as to enable closed-form solutions with clear physical interpretations. These paradigm examples also illustrate the computational efficiency of the PMCMPS, which enables the assimilation of additional experimental information, with a minimal increase in computational resources, to reduce the uncertainties in predicted responses and best-estimate values for uncertain model parameters, thus illustrating how very large systems can be treated without loss of information in a sequential rather than simultaneous manner

  14. Coupled interactions of organized deep convection over the tropical western pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, X.; Raman, S. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States)

    1996-04-01

    The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and deep convection is complex. In general, deep convection occurs more frequently and with more intensity as SSTs become higher. This theory assumes that the atmospheric stability is sufficiently reduced to allow the onset of moist convection. However, the amount and intensity of convection observed tends to decrease with increasing SST because very warm SSTs. A reason for such decrease is the enhancements to surface fluxes of heat and moisture out of the ocean surface because of the vertical overturning associated with deep convection. Early studies used the radiative-convective models of the atmosphere to examine the role of the convective exchange of heat and moisture in maintaining the vertical temperature profile. In this paper we use a Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) to simulate a squall line over a tropical ocean global atmosphere/coupled ocean atmosphere response experiment (TOGA/COARE) area and to investigate how the ocean cooling mechanisms associated with organized deep convection act to limit tropical SSTs.

  15. Statistical and dynamical assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across North Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yan

    impacts is evaluated through ensembles of fully coupled CESM dynamical experiments, with modified leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture across the Sahel or West African Monsoon (WAM) region. The atmospheric responses to oceanic and terrestrial forcings are generally consistent between the dynamical experiments and statistical GEFA, confirming GEFA's capability of isolating the individual impacts of oceanic and terrestrial forcings on North African climate. Furthermore, with the incorporation of stepwise selection, GEFA can now provide reliable estimates of the oceanic and terrestrial impacts on the North African climate with the typical length of observational datasets, thereby enhancing the method's applicability. After the successful validation of GEFA, the key observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of North African climate are identified through the application of GEFA to gridded observations, remote sensing products, and reanalyses. According to GEFA, oceanic drivers dominate over terrestrial drivers in terms of their observed impacts on North African climate in most seasons. Terrestrial impacts are comparable to, or more important than, oceanic impacts on rainfall during the post-monsoon across the Sahel and WAM region, and after the short rain across the Horn of Africa (HOA). The key ocean basins that regulate North African rainfall are typically located in the tropics. While the observed impacts of SST variability across the tropical Pacific and tropical Atlantic Oceans on the Sahel rainfall are largely consistent with previous model-based findings, minimal impacts from tropical Indian Ocean variability on Sahel rainfall are identified in observations, in contrast to previous modeling studies. The current observational analysis verifies model-hypothesized positive vegetation-rainfall feedback across the Sahel and HOA, which is confined to the post-monsoon and post-short rains season, respectively. However, the observed positive vegetation feedback to rainfall

  16. Modeling long-term carbon residue in the ocean-atmosphere system following large CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towles, N. J.; Olson, P.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2013-12-01

    We use the LOSCAR carbon cycle model (Zeebe et al., 2009; Zeebe, 2012) to calculate the residual carbon in the ocean and atmosphere following large CO2 emissions. We consider the system response to CO2 emissions ranging from 100 to 20000 PgC, and emission durations from 100 yr to 100 kyr, subject to a wide range of system parameters such as the strengths of silicate weathering and the oceanic biological carbon pump. We define the carbon gain factor as the ratio of residual carbon in the ocean-atmosphere to the total emitted carbon. For moderate sized emissions shorter than about 50 kyr, we find that the carbon gain factor grows during the emission and peaks at about 1.7, primarily due to the erosion of carbonate marine sediments. In contrast, for longer emissions, the carbon gain factor peaks at a smaller value, and for very large emissions (more than 5000 PgC), the gain factor decreases with emission size due to carbonate sediment exhaustion. This gain factor is sensitive to model parameters such as low latitude efficiency of the biological pump. The timescale for removal of the residual carbon (reducing the carbon gain factor to zero) depends strongly on the assumed sensitivity of silicate weathering to atmospheric pCO2, and ranges from less than one million years to several million years.

  17. Time-slice analysis of the Australian summer monsoon during the late Quaternary using the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, A. G.; Lynch, A. H.

    2006-10-01

    We use the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM) to investigate the variation in the Australian summer monsoon over the last 55 000 years. A synthesis of palaeoenvironmental observations is used to constrain the model for six time slices: 55, 35, 21, 11, 6 and 0 ka. Both inter-hemispheric forcing and the seasonal timing of local insolation changes play key, and interacting, roles on the evolution and intensity of the monsoon.During the onset to the monsoon, a heat low develops to the west of Australia over the Indian Ocean in all time slices, but with varying strengths. Divergent outflow from Asia converges with the cyclonic flow to bring increased rainfall to northern Australia and the maritime continent. The relative importance of a low pressure pull and the high pressure push varies according to the strength of the pressure anomalies. Only in the middle Holocene is the low pressure pull the dominant forcing mechanism. At 21 ka, the climate shift to colder mean temperatures determines the large-scale dynamics of the monsoon.The general picture that emerges from these results is consistent with available palaeodata but highlights the importance of a broad regional perspective to ascribe the driving mechanisms at different times. Copyright

  18. Changing characteristics of streamflow in the Midwest and its relation to oceanic-atmospheric oscillations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, B.; Pathak, P.; Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

    2016-12-01

    The identification of primary drivers of streamflow may prove beneficial in forecasting streamflow in the Midwestern U.S. In the past researches, streamflow in the region have been strongly correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The present study takes in to account the pre-defined Pacific and Atlantic Ocean regions (e.g., ENSO, PDO, AMO) along with new regions with an intent to identify new significantly correlated regions. This study assesses the interrelationship between sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean and seasonal streamflow in the Midwestern U.S. Average Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SST anomalies, were calculated for 2 different 3 month series: September-November and December-February so as to create a lead time varying from 3 to 9 months. Streamflow were averaged for three seasons: spring (April-June), spring-summer (April-August) and summer (June-August). The correlation between streamflow and SST is analyzed using singular value decomposition for a period of 1960-2013. The result of the study showed several regions-other than the known Pacific and Atlantic Ocean regions- that were significantly correlated with streamflow stations. Higher correlation between the climate indices and streamflow were observed as the lead time decreased. The identification of the associations between SST and streamflow and significant SST regions in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean may enhance the skill of streamflow predictability and water management in the region.

  19. Seasonal Climate Predictability in a Coupled OAGCM Using a Different Approach for Ensemble Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jing-Jia; Masson, Sebastien; Behera, Swadhin; Shingu, Satoru; Yamagata, Toshio

    2005-11-01

    Predictabilities of tropical climate signals are investigated using a relatively high resolution Scale Interaction Experiment Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) coupled GCM (SINTEX-F). Five ensemble forecast members are generated by perturbing the model’s coupling physics, which accounts for the uncertainties of both initial conditions and model physics. Because of the model’s good performance in simulating the climatology and ENSO in the tropical Pacific, a simple coupled SST-nudging scheme generates realistic thermocline and surface wind variations in the equatorial Pacific. Several westerly and easterly wind bursts in the western Pacific are also captured.Hindcast results for the period 1982 2001 show a high predictability of ENSO. All past El Niño and La Niña events, including the strongest 1997/98 warm episode, are successfully predicted with the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) skill scores above 0.7 at the 12-month lead time. The predicted signals of some particular events, however, become weak with a delay in the phase at mid and long lead times. This is found to be related to the intraseasonal wind bursts that are unpredicted beyond a few months of lead time. The model forecasts also show a “spring prediction barrier” similar to that in observations. Spatial SST anomalies, teleconnection, and global drought/flood during three different phases of ENSO are successfully predicted at 9 12-month lead times.In the tropical North Atlantic and southwestern Indian Ocean, where ENSO has predominant influences, the model shows skillful predictions at the 7 12-month lead times. The distinct signal of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event in 1994 is predicted at the 6-month lead time. SST anomalies near the western coast of Australia are also predicted beyond the 12-month lead time because of pronounced decadal signals there.

  20. Improved Helicopter Rotor Performance Prediction through Loose and Tight CFD/CSD Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ickes, Jacob C.

    Helicopters and other Vertical Take-Off or Landing (VTOL) vehicles exhibit an interesting combination of structural dynamic and aerodynamic phenomena which together drive the rotor performance. The combination of factors involved make simulating the rotor a challenging and multidisciplinary effort, and one which is still an active area of interest in the industry because of the money and time it could save during design. Modern tools allow the prediction of rotorcraft physics from first principles. Analysis of the rotor system with this level of accuracy provides the understanding necessary to improve its performance. There has historically been a divide between the comprehensive codes which perform aeroelastic rotor simulations using simplified aerodynamic models, and the very computationally intensive Navier-Stokes Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers. As computer resources become more available, efforts have been made to replace the simplified aerodynamics of the comprehensive codes with the more accurate results from a CFD code. The objective of this work is to perform aeroelastic rotorcraft analysis using first-principles simulations for both fluids and structural predictions using tools available at the University of Toledo. Two separate codes are coupled together in both loose coupling (data exchange on a periodic interval) and tight coupling (data exchange each time step) schemes. To allow the coupling to be carried out in a reliable and efficient way, a Fluid-Structure Interaction code was developed which automatically performs primary functions of loose and tight coupling procedures. Flow phenomena such as transonics, dynamic stall, locally reversed flow on a blade, and Blade-Vortex Interaction (BVI) were simulated in this work. Results of the analysis show aerodynamic load improvement due to the inclusion of the CFD-based airloads in the structural dynamics analysis of the Computational Structural Dynamics (CSD) code. Improvements came in the form

  1. Predicting transmission of structure-borne sound power from machines by including terminal cross-coupling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ohlrich, Mogens

    2011-01-01

    of translational terminals in a global plane. This paired or bi-coupled power transmission represents the simplest case of cross-coupling. The procedure and quality of the predicted transmission using this improved technique is demonstrated experimentally for an electrical motor unit with an integrated radial fan......Structure-borne sound generated by audible vibration of machines in vehicles, equipment and house-hold appliances is often a major cause of noise. Such vibration of complex machines is mostly determined and quantified by measurements. It has been found that characterization of the vibratory source...

  2. Potential decadal predictability and its sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization in a global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koenigk, Torben; Caian, Mihaela; Doescher, Ralf; Wyser, Klaus [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Centre, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Koenig Beatty, Christof [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

    2012-06-15

    Decadal prediction is one focus of the upcoming 5th IPCC Assessment report. To be able to interpret the results and to further improve the decadal predictions it is important to investigate the potential predictability in the participating climate models. This study analyzes the upper limit of climate predictability on decadal time scales and its dependency on sea ice albedo parameterization by performing two perfect ensemble experiments with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth. In the first experiment, the standard albedo formulation of EC-Earth is used, in the second experiment sea ice albedo is reduced. The potential prognostic predictability is analyzed for a set of oceanic and atmospheric parameters. The decadal predictability of the atmospheric circulation is small. The highest potential predictability was found in air temperature at 2 m height over the northern North Atlantic and the southern South Atlantic. Over land, only a few areas are significantly predictable. The predictability for continental size averages of air temperature is relatively good in all northern hemisphere regions. Sea ice thickness is highly predictable along the ice edges in the North Atlantic Arctic Sector. The meridional overturning circulation is highly predictable in both experiments and governs most of the decadal climate predictability in the northern hemisphere. The experiments using reduced sea ice albedo show some important differences like a generally higher predictability of atmospheric variables in the Arctic or higher predictability of air temperature in Europe. Furthermore, decadal variations are substantially smaller in the simulations with reduced ice albedo, which can be explained by reduced sea ice thickness in these simulations. (orig.)

  3. Coupled Data Assimilation for Integrated Earth System Analysis and Prediction: Goals, Challenges, and Recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penny, Stephen G.; Akella, Santha; Buehner, Mark; Chevallier, Matthieu; Counillon, Francois; Draper, Clara; Frolov, Sergey; Fujii, Yosuke; Karspeck, Alicia; Kumar, Arun

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to identify fundamental issues for coupled data assimilation (CDA), such as gaps in science and limitations in forecasting systems, in order to provide guidance to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on how to facilitate more rapid progress internationally. Coupled Earth system modeling provides the opportunity to extend skillful atmospheric forecasts beyond the traditional two-week barrier by extracting skill from low-frequency state components such as the land, ocean, and sea ice. More generally, coupled models are needed to support seamless prediction systems that span timescales from weather, subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), multiyear, and decadal. Therefore, initialization methods are needed for coupled Earth system models, either applied to each individual component (called Weakly Coupled Data Assimilation - WCDA) or applied the coupled Earth system model as a whole (called Strongly Coupled Data Assimilation - SCDA). Using CDA, in which model forecasts and potentially the state estimation are performed jointly, each model domain benefits from observations in other domains either directly using error covariance information known at the time of the analysis (SCDA), or indirectly through flux interactions at the model boundaries (WCDA). Because the non-atmospheric domains are generally under-observed compared to the atmosphere, CDA provides a significant advantage over single-domain analyses. Next, we provide a synopsis of goals, challenges, and recommendations to advance CDA: Goals: (a) Extend predictive skill beyond the current capability of NWP (e.g. as demonstrated by improving forecast skill scores), (b) produce physically consistent initial conditions for coupled numerical prediction systems and reanalyses (including consistent fluxes at the domain interfaces), (c) make best use of existing observations by allowing observations from each domain to influence and improve the full earth system analysis, (d) develop a robust

  4. Typology of Couples Entering Alcohol Behavioral Couple Therapy: An Empirical Approach and Test of Predictive Validity on Treatment Response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladd, Benjamin O; McCrady, Barbara S

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to examine whether classification of couples in which one partner has an alcohol problem is similar to that reported in the general couples literature. Typologies of couples seeking alcohol behavioral couple therapy (ABCT) were developed via hierarchical cluster analysis using behavioral codes of couple interactions during their first ABCT session. Four couples types based on in-session behavior were established reliably, labeled avoider, validator, hostile, and ambivalent-detached. These couple types resembled couples types found in previous research. Couple type was associated with baseline relationship satisfaction, but not alcohol use. Results suggest heterogeneity in couples with alcohol problems presenting to treatment; further study is needed to investigate the function of alcohol within these different types. © 2015 American Association for Marriage and Family Therapy.

  5. A Symbiotic Framework for coupling Machine Learning and Geosciences in Prediction and Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravela, S.

    2017-12-01

    In this presentation we review the two directions of a symbiotic relationship between machine learning and the geosciences in relation to prediction and predictability. In the first direction, we develop ensemble, information theoretic and manifold learning framework to adaptively improve state and parameter estimates in nonlinear high-dimensional non-Gaussian problems, showing in particular that tractable variational approaches can be produced. We demonstrate these applications in the context of autonomous mapping of environmental coherent structures and other idealized problems. In the reverse direction, we show that data assimilation, particularly probabilistic approaches for filtering and smoothing offer a novel and useful way to train neural networks, and serve as a better basis than gradient based approaches when we must quantify uncertainty in association with nonlinear, chaotic processes. In many inference problems in geosciences we seek to build reduced models to characterize local sensitivies, adjoints or other mechanisms that propagate innovations and errors. Here, the particular use of neural approaches for such propagation trained using ensemble data assimilation provides a novel framework. Through these two examples of inference problems in the earth sciences, we show that not only is learning useful to broaden existing methodology, but in reverse, geophysical methodology can be used to influence paradigms in learning.

  6. Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyun-Chul; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu

    2018-03-01

    Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific.

  7. Predicting a contact's sensitivity to initial conditions using metrics of frictional coupling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flicek, Robert C.; Hills, David A.; Brake, Matthew Robert W.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a method for predicting how sensitive a frictional contact’s steady-state behavior is to its initial conditions. Previous research has proven that if a contact is uncoupled, i.e. if slip displacements do not influence the contact pressure distribution, then its steady-state response is independent of initial conditions, but if the contact is coupled, the steady-state response depends on initial conditions. In this paper, two metrics for quantifying coupling in discrete frictional systems are examined. These metrics suggest that coupling is dominated by material dissimilarity due to Dundurs’ composite material parameter β when β ≥ 0.2, but geometric mismatch becomes the dominant source of coupling for smaller values of β. Based on a large set of numerical simulations with different contact geometries, material combinations, and friction coefficients, a contact’s sensitivity to initial conditions is found to be correlated with the product of the coupling metric and the friction coefficient. For cyclic shear loading, this correlation is maintained for simulations with different contact geometries, material combinations, and friction coefficients. Furthermore, for cyclic bulk loading, the correlation is only maintained when the contact edge angle is held constant.

  8. Improving MJO Prediction and Simulation Using AGCM Coupled Ocean Model with Refined Vertical Resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tu, Chia-Ying; Tseng, Wan-Ling; Kuo, Pei-Hsuan; Lan, Yung-Yao; Tsuang, Ben-Jei; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung

    2017-04-01

    Precipitation in Taiwan area is significantly influenced by MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) in the boreal winter. This study is therefore conducted by toggling the MJO prediction and simulation with a unique model structure. The one-dimensional TKE (Turbulence Kinetic Energy) type ocean model SIT (Snow, Ice, Thermocline) with refined vertical resolution near surface is able to resolve cool skin, as well as diurnal warm layer. SIT can simulate accurate SST and hence give precise air-sea interaction. By coupling SIT with ECHAM5 (MPI-Meteorology), CAM5 (NCAR) and HiRAM (GFDL), the MJO simulations in 20-yrs climate integrations conducted by three SIT-coupled AGCMs are significant improved comparing to those driven by prescribed SST. The horizontal resolutions in ECHAM5, CAM5 and HiRAM are 2-deg., 1-deg and 0.5-deg., respectively. This suggests that the improvement of MJO simulation by coupling SIT is AGCM-resolution independent. This study further utilizes HiRAM coupled SIT to evaluate its MJO forecast skill. HiRAM has been recognized as one of the best model for seasonal forecasts of hurricane/typhoon activity (Zhao et al., 2009; Chen & Lin, 2011; 2013), but was not as successful in MJO forecast. The preliminary result of the HiRAM-SIT experiment during DYNAMO period shows improved success in MJO forecast. These improvements of MJO prediction and simulation in both hindcast experiments and climate integrations are mainly from better-simulated SST diurnal cycle and diurnal amplitude, which is contributed by the refined vertical resolution near ocean surface in SIT. Keywords: MJO Predictability, DYNAMO

  9. Collaborative project. Ocean-atmosphere interaction from meso-to planetary-scale. Mechanisms, parameterization, and variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Small, Richard [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Bryan, Frank [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Tribbia, Joseph [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Park, Sungsu [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Dennis, John [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Saravanan, R. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Schneider, Niklas [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Kwon, Young-Oh [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-06-11

    This project aims to improve long term global climate simulations by resolving ocean mesoscale activity and the corresponding response in the atmosphere. The main computational objectives are; i) to perform and assess Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations with the new Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) spectral element dynamical core; ii) use static mesh refinement to focus on oceanic fronts; iii) develop a new Earth System Modeling tool to investigate the atmospheric response to fronts by selectively filtering surface flux fields in the CESM coupler. The climate research objectives are 1) to improve the coupling of ocean fronts and the atmospheric boundary layer via investigations of dependency on model resolution and stability functions: 2) to understand and simulate the ensuing tropospheric response that has recently been documented in observations: and 3) to investigate the relationship of ocean frontal variability to low frequency climate variability and the accompanying storm tracks and extremes in high resolution simulations. This is a collaborative multi-institution project consisting of computational scientists, climate scientists and climate model developers. It specifically aims at DOE objectives of advancing simulation and predictive capability of climate models through improvements in resolution and physical process representation.

  10. Couplings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stošić, Dušan; Auroux, Aline

    Basic principles of calorimetry coupled with other techniques are introduced. These methods are used in heterogeneous catalysis for characterization of acidic, basic and red-ox properties of solid catalysts. Estimation of these features is achieved by monitoring the interaction of various probe molecules with the surface of such materials. Overview of gas phase, as well as liquid phase techniques is given. Special attention is devoted to coupled calorimetry-volumetry method. Furthermore, the influence of different experimental parameters on the results of these techniques is discussed, since it is known that they can significantly influence the evaluation of catalytic properties of investigated materials.

  11. A Unified Air-Sea Interface in Fully Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Models for Data Assimilation and Ensemble Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuyi; Curcic, Milan; Donelan, Mark; Campbell, Tim; Smith, Travis; Chen, Sue; Allard, Rick; Michalakes, John

    2014-05-01

    The goals of this study are to 1) better understand the physical processes controlling air-sea interaction and their impact on coastal marine and storm predictions, 2) explore the use of coupled atmosphere-ocean observations in model verification and data assimilation, and 3) develop a physically based and computationally efficient coupling at the air-sea interface that is flexible for use in a multi-model system and portable for transition to the next generation research and operational coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean-land models. We have developed a unified air-sea interface module that couples multiple atmosphere, wave, and ocean models using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). This standardized coupling framework allows researchers to develop and test air-sea coupling parameterizations and coupled data assimilation, and to better facilitate research-to-operation activities. It also allows for future ensemble forecasts using coupled models that can be used for coupled data assimilation and assessment of uncertainties in coupled model predictions. The current component models include two atmospheric models (WRF and COAMPS), two ocean models (HYCOM and NCOM), and two wave models (UMWM and SWAN). The coupled modeling systems have been tested and evaluated using the coupled air-sea observations (e.g., GPS dropsondes and AXBTs, drifters and floats) collected in recent field campaigns in the Gulf of Mexico and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and Pacific basins. This talk will provide an overview of the unified air-sea interface model and fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model predictions over various coastal regions and tropical cyclones in the Pacific and Atlantic basins including an example from coupled ensemble prediction of Superstorm Sandy (2012).

  12. Effect of temporal organization of the visuo-locomotor coupling on the predictive steering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yves Philippe Rybarczyk

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Studies on the direction of a driver’s gaze while taking a bend show that the individual looks towards the tangent-point of the inside curve. Mathematically, the direction of this point in relation to the car enables the driver to predict the curvature of the road. In the same way, when a person walking in the street makes a turn at the corner, his/her gaze anticipates the rotation of the body. A current explanation for the visuo-motor anticipation over the locomotion would be that the brain, involved in a steering behaviour, executes an internal model of the trajectory that anticipates the path completion, and not the contrary. This paper proposes to test this hypothesis by studying the effect of an artificial manipulation of the visuo-locomotor coupling on the trajectory prediction. In this experiment, subjects remotely control a mobile robot with a pan-tilt camera. This experimental paradigm is chosen to easily and precisely manipulate the temporal organization of the visuo-locomotor coupling. Results show that only the visuo-locomotor coupling organized from the visual sensor to the locomotor organs enables i a significant smoothness of the trajectory and ii a velocity-curvature relationship that follows the 2/3 Power Law. These findings are consistent with the theory of an anticipatory construction of an internal model of the trajectory. This mental representation used by the brain as a forward prediction of the path formation seems conditioned by the motor program. The overall results are discussed in terms of the sensorimotor scheme bases of the predictive coding.

  13. Method of critical power prediction based on film flow model coupled with subchannel analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomiyama, Akio; Yokomizo, Osamu; Yoshimoto, Yuichiro; Sugawara, Satoshi.

    1988-01-01

    A new method was developed to predict critical powers for a wide variety of BWR fuel bundle designs. This method couples subchannel analysis with a liquid film flow model, instead of taking the conventional way which couples subchannel analysis with critical heat flux correlations. Flow and quality distributions in a bundle are estimated by the subchannel analysis. Using these distributions, film flow rates along fuel rods are then calculated with the film flow model. Dryout is assumed to occur where one of the film flows disappears. This method is expected to give much better adaptability to variations in geometry, heat flux, flow rate and quality distributions than the conventional methods. In order to verify the method, critical power data under BWR conditions were analyzed. Measured and calculated critical powers agreed to within ±7%. Furthermore critical power data for a tight-latticed bundle obtained by LeTourneau et al. were compared with critical powers calculated by the present method and two conventional methods, CISE correlation and subchannel analysis coupled with the CISE correlation. It was confirmed that the present method can predict critical powers more accurately than the conventional methods. (author)

  14. Role of upper-most crustal composition in the evolution of the Precambrian ocean-atmosphere system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Large, R. R.; Mukherjee, I.; Zhukova, I.; Corkrey, R.; Stepanov, A.; Danyushevsky, L. V.

    2018-04-01

    Recent research has emphasized the potential relationships between supercontinent cycles, mountain building, nutrient flux, ocean-atmosphere chemistry and the origin of life. The composition of the Upper-Most Continental Crust (UMCC) also figures prominently in these relationships, and yet little detailed data on each component of this complex relationship has been available for assessment. Here we provide a new set of data on the trace element concentrations, including the Rare Earth Elements (REE), in the matrix of 52 marine black shale formations spread globally through the Archean and Proterozoic. The data support previous studies on the temporal geochemistry of shales, but with some important differences. Results indicate a change in provenance of the black shales (upper-most crustal composition), from more mafic in the Archean prior to 2700 Ma, to more felsic from 2700 to 2200 Ma, followed by a return to mafic compositions from 2200 to 1850 Ma. Around 1850 to 1800 Ma there is a rapid change to uniform felsic compositions, which remained for a billion years to 800 Ma. The shale matrix geochemistry supports the assertion that the average upper-most continental source rocks for the shales changed from a mix of felsic, mafic and ultramafic prior to 2700 Ma to more felsic after 1850 Ma, with an extended transition period between. The return to more mafic UMCC from 2200 to 1850 Ma is supported by the frequency of Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs) and banded iron formations, which suggest a peak in major mantle-connected plume events and associated Fe-rich hydrothermal activity over this period. Support for the change to felsic UMCC around 1850 Ma is provided by previous geological data which shows that felsic magmas, including, A-type granites and K-Th-U-rich granites intruded vast areas of the continental crust, peaking around 1850 Ma and declining to 1000 Ma. The implications of this change in UMCC are far reaching and may go some way to explain the distinct

  15. Ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) and Superstorm Sandy (2012): Coupled model predictions and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuyi S.; Curcic, Milan

    2016-07-01

    Forecasting hurricane impacts of extreme winds and flooding requires accurate prediction of hurricane structure and storm-induced ocean surface waves days in advance. The waves are complex, especially near landfall when the hurricane winds and water depth varies significantly and the surface waves refract, shoal and dissipate. In this study, we examine the spatial structure, magnitude, and directional spectrum of hurricane-induced ocean waves using a high resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model and observations. The coupled model predictions of ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) over the Gulf of Mexico and Superstorm Sandy (2012) in the northeastern Atlantic and coastal region are evaluated with the NDBC buoy and satellite altimeter observations. Although there are characteristics that are general to ocean waves in both hurricanes as documented in previous studies, wave fields in Ike and Sandy possess unique properties due mostly to the distinct wind fields and coastal bathymetry in the two storms. Several processes are found to significantly modulate hurricane surface waves near landfall. First, the phase speed and group velocities decrease as the waves become shorter and steeper in shallow water, effectively increasing surface roughness and wind stress. Second, the bottom-induced refraction acts to turn the waves toward the coast, increasing the misalignment between the wind and waves. Third, as the hurricane translates over land, the left side of the storm center is characterized by offshore winds over very short fetch, which opposes incoming swell. Landfalling hurricanes produce broader wave spectra overall than that of the open ocean. The front-left quadrant is most complex, where the combination of windsea, swell propagating against the wind, increasing wind-wave stress, and interaction with the coastal topography requires a fully coupled model to meet these challenges in hurricane wave and surge prediction.

  16. Prediction of beta-turns from amino acid sequences using the residue-coupled model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guruprasad, K; Shukla, S

    2003-04-01

    We evaluated the prediction of beta-turns from amino acid sequences using the residue-coupled model with an enlarged representative protein data set selected from the Protein Data Bank. Our results show that the probability values derived from a data set comprising 425 protein chains yielded an overall beta-turn prediction accuracy 68.74%, compared with 94.7% reported earlier on a data set of 30 proteins using the same method. However, we noted that the overall beta-turn prediction accuracy using probability values derived from the 30-protein data set reduces to 40.74% when tested on the data set comprising 425 protein chains. In contrast, using probability values derived from the 425 data set used in this analysis, the overall beta-turn prediction accuracy yielded consistent results when tested on either the 30-protein data set (64.62%) used earlier or a more recent representative data set comprising 619 protein chains (64.66%) or on a jackknife data set comprising 476 representative protein chains (63.38%). We therefore recommend the use of probability values derived from the 425 representative protein chains data set reported here, which gives more realistic and consistent predictions of beta-turns from amino acid sequences.

  17. Coupled Model of Artificial Neural Network and Grey Model for Tendency Prediction of Labor Turnover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yueru Ma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The tendency of labor turnover in the Chinese enterprise shows the characteristics of seasonal fluctuations and irregular distribution of various factors, especially the Chinese traditional social and cultural characteristics. In this paper, we present a coupled model for the tendency prediction of labor turnover. In the model, a time series of tendency prediction of labor turnover was expressed as trend item and its random item. Trend item of tendency prediction of labor turnover is predicted using Grey theory. Random item of trend item is calculated by artificial neural network model (ANN. A case study is presented by the data of 24 months in a Chinese matured enterprise. The model uses the advantages of “accumulative generation” of a Grey prediction method, which weakens the original sequence of random disturbance factors and increases the regularity of data. It also takes full advantage of the ANN model approximation performance, which has a capacity to solve economic problems rapidly, describes the nonlinear relationship easily, and avoids the defects of Grey theory.

  18. Splay states in globally coupled Josephson arrays: Analytical prediction of Floquet multipliers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strogatz, S.H.; Mirollo, R.E.

    1993-01-01

    In recent numerical experiments on series arrays of overdamped Josephson junctions, Nichols and Wiesenfeld [Phys. Rev. A 45, 8430 (1992)] discovered that the periodic states known as splay states are neutrally stable in all but four directions in phase space. We present a theory that accounts for this enormous degree of neutral stability. The theory also predicts the four non-neutral Floquet multipliers to within 0.1% of their numerically computed values. The analytical approach used here may be appli- cable to other globally coupled systems of oscillators, such as multimode lasers, electronic oscillator circuits, and solid-state laser arrays

  19. Coupling of EIT with computational lung modeling for predicting patient-specific ventilatory responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Christian J; Becher, Tobias; Frerichs, Inéz; Weiler, Norbert; Wall, Wolfgang A

    2017-04-01

    Providing optimal personalized mechanical ventilation for patients with acute or chronic respiratory failure is still a challenge within a clinical setting for each case anew. In this article, we integrate electrical impedance tomography (EIT) monitoring into a powerful patient-specific computational lung model to create an approach for personalizing protective ventilatory treatment. The underlying computational lung model is based on a single computed tomography scan and able to predict global airflow quantities, as well as local tissue aeration and strains for any ventilation maneuver. For validation, a novel "virtual EIT" module is added to our computational lung model, allowing to simulate EIT images based on the patient's thorax geometry and the results of our numerically predicted tissue aeration. Clinically measured EIT images are not used to calibrate the computational model. Thus they provide an independent method to validate the computational predictions at high temporal resolution. The performance of this coupling approach has been tested in an example patient with acute respiratory distress syndrome. The method shows good agreement between computationally predicted and clinically measured airflow data and EIT images. These results imply that the proposed framework can be used for numerical prediction of patient-specific responses to certain therapeutic measures before applying them to an actual patient. In the long run, definition of patient-specific optimal ventilation protocols might be assisted by computational modeling. NEW & NOTEWORTHY In this work, we present a patient-specific computational lung model that is able to predict global and local ventilatory quantities for a given patient and any selected ventilation protocol. For the first time, such a predictive lung model is equipped with a virtual electrical impedance tomography module allowing real-time validation of the computed results with the patient measurements. First promising results

  20. Predicting Couples' Marital Satisfaction Based on Relationship Beliefs and Relationship Skills

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    خلیل اسماعیل‌پور

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The results showed that there was significant difference between husbands’ and their wives' marital satisfaction. Stepwise regression analyses revealed that relational skills and marriage duration were, respectively, significant predictors of husbands’ marital satisfaction. Also, relational skills and some of relational beliefs- such as "things should always be perfect between us", "we should do everything together" and "romanticism", had significant contribution in prediction of wives’ martial satisfaction, respectively. Contributions of other relational beliefs were not significant. These results clarified the role of relational shills and relational beliefs in marital satisfaction, and confirmed that cognitive-behavior approaches, through training relational skills for couples, and therapeutic interventions to change wives' irrational beliefs would be effective in treating marital problems. This Study, according to cognitive-behavior approach, tries to investigate the role of relationship beliefs and relationship skills in couples' marital satisfaction. To do so, 160 persons (80 couples from Tabriz were selected.  After establishing the motivation for participation in the research and getting their informed consent, they were asked to fill out Relationship Beliefs Questionnaire (RBQ, Moradi's marital relationship skills questionnaire and marital satisfaction questionnaire (ENRICH.

  1. Large-Scale Brain Network Coupling Predicts Total Sleep Deprivation Effects on Cognitive Capacity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Lei

    Full Text Available Interactions between large-scale brain networks have received most attention in the study of cognitive dysfunction of human brain. In this paper, we aimed to test the hypothesis that the coupling strength of large-scale brain networks will reflect the pressure for sleep and will predict cognitive performance, referred to as sleep pressure index (SPI. Fourteen healthy subjects underwent this within-subject functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI study during rested wakefulness (RW and after 36 h of total sleep deprivation (TSD. Self-reported scores of sleepiness were higher for TSD than for RW. A subsequent working memory (WM task showed that WM performance was lower after 36 h of TSD. Moreover, SPI was developed based on the coupling strength of salience network (SN and default mode network (DMN. Significant increase of SPI was observed after 36 h of TSD, suggesting stronger pressure for sleep. In addition, SPI was significantly correlated with both the visual analogue scale score of sleepiness and the WM performance. These results showed that alterations in SN-DMN coupling might be critical in cognitive alterations that underlie the lapse after TSD. Further studies may validate the SPI as a potential clinical biomarker to assess the impact of sleep deprivation.

  2. Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2): atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaya, Yuhei; Hirahara, Shoji; Yasuda, Tamaki; Matsueda, Satoko; Toyoda, Takahiro; Fujii, Yosuke; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Matsukawa, Chihiro; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Mori, Hirotoshi; Nagasawa, Ryoji; Kubo, Yutaro; Adachi, Noriyuki; Yamanaka, Goro; Kuragano, Tsurane; Shimpo, Akihiko; Maeda, Shuhei; Ose, Tomoaki

    2018-02-01

    This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981-2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region.

  3. Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santanello, Joseph A.; Kumar, Sujay; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Harrison, Kenneth W.; Zhou, Shuija

    2012-01-01

    Land-atmosphere (L-A) Interactions playa critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (US-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF Simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

  4. Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santanello, J. A.; Kumar, S.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Harrison, K. W.; Zhou, S.

    2012-12-01

    Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

  5. Coupling between cracking and permeability, a model for structure service life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lasne, M.; Gerard, B.; Breysse, D.

    1993-01-01

    Many authors have chosen permeability coefficients (permeation, diffusion) as a reference for material durability and for structure service life prediction. When we look for designing engineered barriers for radioactive waste storage we find these macroscopic parameters very essential. In order to work with a predictive model of transfer properties evolution in a porous media (concrete, mortar, rock) we introduce a 'micro-macro' hierarchical model of permeability whose data are the total porosity and the pore size distribution. In spite of the simplicity of the model (very small CPU time consuming) comparative studies show predictive results for sound cement pastes, mortars and concretes. Associated to these works we apply a model of damage due to hydration processes at early ages to a container as a preliminary underproject for the definitive storage of Low Level radioactive Waste (LLW). Data are geometry, cement properties and damage measurement of concrete. This model takes into account the mechanical property of the concrete maturation (volumic variations during cement hydration can damage the structures). Some local microcracking can appear and affect the long term durability. Following these works we introduce our research program for the concrete cracking analysis. An experimental campaign is designed in order to determine damage-cracking-porosity-permeability coupling. (authors). 12 figs., 16 refs

  6. An analytical model for predicting transport in a coupled vadose/phreatic system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomasko, D.

    1997-05-01

    A simple analytical model is presented for predicting the transport of a contaminant in both the unsaturated (vadose) and saturated (phreatic) zones following a surficial spill. The model incorporates advection, dispersion, adsorption, and first-order decay in both zones and couples the transport processes at the water table. The governing equation is solved by using the method of Laplace transforms, with numerical inversion of the Laplace space equation for concentration. Because of the complexity of the functional form for the Laplace space solution, a numerical methodology using the real and imaginary parts of a Fourier series was implemented. To reduce conservatism in the model, dilution at the water table was also included. Verification of the model is demonstrated by its ability to reproduce the source history at the surface and to replicate appropriate one-dimensional transport through either the vadose or phreatic zone. Because of its simplicity and lack of detailed input data requirements, the model is recommended for scoping calculations

  7. Copula Entropy coupled with Wavelet Neural Network Model for Hydrological Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yin; Yue, JiGuang; Liu, ShuGuang; Wang, Li

    2018-02-01

    Artificial Neural network(ANN) has been widely used in hydrological forecasting. in this paper an attempt has been made to find an alternative method for hydrological prediction by combining Copula Entropy(CE) with Wavelet Neural Network(WNN), CE theory permits to calculate mutual information(MI) to select Input variables which avoids the limitations of the traditional linear correlation(LCC) analysis. Wavelet analysis can provide the exact locality of any changes in the dynamical patterns of the sequence Coupled with ANN Strong non-linear fitting ability. WNN model was able to provide a good fit with the hydrological data. finally, the hybrid model(CE+WNN) have been applied to daily water level of Taihu Lake Basin, and compared with CE ANN, LCC WNN and LCC ANN. Results showed that the hybrid model produced better results in estimating the hydrograph properties than the latter models.

  8. Propidium Monoazide Coupled with PCR Predicts Infectivity of Enteric Viruses in Swine Manure and Biofertilized Soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fongaro, Gislaine; Hernández, Marta; García-González, María Cruz; Barardi, Célia Regina Monte; Rodríguez-Lázaro, David

    2016-03-01

    The use of propidium monoazide (PMA) coupled with real-time PCR (RT-qPCR or qPCR for RNA or DNA viruses, respectively) was assessed to discriminate infectious enteric viruses in swine raw manure, swine effluent from anaerobic biodigester (AB) and biofertilized soils. Those samples were spiked either with infectious and heat-inactivated human adenovirus-2 (HAdV-2) or mengovirus (vMC0), and PMA-qPCR/RT-qPCR allowed discriminating inactivated viruses from the infective particles, with significant reductions (>99.9%). Then, the procedure was further assayed to evaluate the presence and stability of two non-cultivable viruses (porcine adenovirus and rotavirus A) in natural samples (swine raw manure, swine effluent from AB and biofertilized soils); it demonstrated viral inactivation during the storage period at 23 °C. As a result, the combination of PMA coupled to real-time PCR can be a promising alternative for prediction of viral infectivity in comparison to more labour-intensive and costly techniques such as animal or tissue-culture infectivity methods, and for those viruses that do not have currently available cell culture techniques.

  9. A 3D coupled hydro-mechanical granular model for the prediction of hot tearing formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sistaninia, M; Drezet, J-M; Rappaz, M; Phillion, A B

    2012-01-01

    A new 3D coupled hydro-mechanical granular model that simulates hot tearing formation in metallic alloys is presented. The hydro-mechanical model consists of four separate 3D modules. (I) The Solidification Module (SM) is used for generating the initial solid-liquid geometry. Based on a Voronoi tessellation of randomly distributed nucleation centers, this module computes solidification within each polyhedron using a finite element based solute diffusion calculation for each element within the tessellation. (II) The Fluid Flow Module (FFM) calculates the solidification shrinkage and deformation-induced pressure drop within the intergranular liquid. (III) The Semi-solid Deformation Module (SDM) is used to simulate deformation of the granular structure via a combined finite element / discrete element method. In this module, deformation of the solid grains is modeled using an elasto-viscoplastic constitutive law. (IV) The Failure Module (FM) is used to simulate crack initiation and propagation with the fracture criterion estimated from the overpressure required to overcome the capillary forces at the liquid-gas interface. The FFM, SDM, and FM are coupled processes since solid deformation, intergranular flow, and crack initiation are deeply linked together. The granular model predictions have been validated against bulk data measured experimentally and calculated with averaging techniques.

  10. Combined UMC- DFT prediction of electron-hole coupling in unit cells of pentacene crystals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leal, Luciano Almeida; de Souza Júnior, Rafael Timóteo; de Almeida Fonseca, Antonio Luciano; Ribeiro Junior, Luiz Antonio; Blawid, Stefan; da Silva Filho, Demetrio Antonio; da Cunha, Wiliam Ferreira

    2017-05-01

    Pentacene is an organic semiconductor that draws special attention from the scientific community due to the high mobility of its charge carriers. As electron-hole interactions are important aspects in the regard of such property, a computationally inexpensive method to predict the coupling between these quasi-particles is highly desired. In this work, we propose a hybrid methodology of combining Uncoupled Monte Carlo Simulations (UMC) and Density functional Theory (DFT) methodologies to obtain a good compromise between computational feasibility and accuracy. As a first step in considering a Pentacene crystal, we describe its unit cell: the Pentacene Dimer. Because many conformations can be encountered for the dimer and considering the complexity of the system, we make use of UMC in order to find the most probable structures and relative orientations for the Pentacene-Pentacene complex. Following, we carry out electronic structure calculations in the scope of DFT with the goal of describing the electron-hole coupling on the most probable configurations obtained by UMC. The comparison of our results with previously reported data on the literature suggests that the methodology is well suited for describing transfer integrals of organic semiconductors. The observed accuracy together with the smaller computational cost required by our approach allows us to conclude that such methodology might be an important tool towards the description of systems with higher complexity.

  11. Large-scale brain network coupling predicts acute nicotine abstinence effects on craving and cognitive function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerman, Caryn; Gu, Hong; Loughead, James; Ruparel, Kosha; Yang, Yihong; Stein, Elliot A

    2014-05-01

    Interactions of large-scale brain networks may underlie cognitive dysfunctions in psychiatric and addictive disorders. To test the hypothesis that the strength of coupling among 3 large-scale brain networks--salience, executive control, and default mode--will reflect the state of nicotine withdrawal (vs smoking satiety) and will predict abstinence-induced craving and cognitive deficits and to develop a resource allocation index (RAI) that reflects the combined strength of interactions among the 3 large-scale networks. A within-subject functional magnetic resonance imaging study in an academic medical center compared resting-state functional connectivity coherence strength after 24 hours of abstinence and after smoking satiety. We examined the relationship of abstinence-induced changes in the RAI with alterations in subjective, behavioral, and neural functions. We included 37 healthy smoking volunteers, aged 19 to 61 years, for analyses. Twenty-four hours of abstinence vs smoking satiety. Inter-network connectivity strength (primary) and the relationship with subjective, behavioral, and neural measures of nicotine withdrawal during abstinence vs smoking satiety states (secondary). The RAI was significantly lower in the abstinent compared with the smoking satiety states (left RAI, P = .002; right RAI, P = .04), suggesting weaker inhibition between the default mode and salience networks. Weaker inter-network connectivity (reduced RAI) predicted abstinence-induced cravings to smoke (r = -0.59; P = .007) and less suppression of default mode activity during performance of a subsequent working memory task (ventromedial prefrontal cortex, r = -0.66, P = .003; posterior cingulate cortex, r = -0.65, P = .001). Alterations in coupling of the salience and default mode networks and the inability to disengage from the default mode network may be critical in cognitive/affective alterations that underlie nicotine dependence.

  12. The role of the southern annular mode in dynamical global coupled model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Beraki, AF

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The interannual and decadal variability of the Southern Annual Mode (SAM) was examined in the ECHAM 4.5-MOM3-SA ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model (OAGCM). The analysis placed emphasis on the behavior of the SAM when its variability...

  13. A coupled hydrodynamic-hydrochemical modeling for predicting mineral transport in a natural acid drainage system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zegers Risopatron, G., Sr.; Navarro, L.; Montserrat, S., Sr.; McPhee, J. P.; Niño, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The geochemistry of water and sediments, coupled with hydrodynamic transport in mountainous channels, is of particular interest in central Chilean Andes due to natural occurrence of acid waters. In this paper, we present a coupled transport and geochemical model to estimate and understand transport processes and fate of minerals at the Yerba Loca Basin, located near Santiago, Chile. In the upper zone, water presentes low pH ( 3) and high concentrations of iron, aluminum, copper, manganese and zinc. Acidity and minerals are the consequence of water-rock interactions in hydrothermal alteration zones, rich in sulphides and sulphates, covered by seasonal snow and glaciers. Downstream, as a consequence of neutral to alkaline lateral water contributions (pH >7) along the river, pH increases and concentration of solutes decreases. The mineral transport model has three components: (i) a hydrodynamic model, where we use HEC-RAS to solve 1D Saint-Venant equations, (ii) a sediment transport model to estimate erosion and sedimentation rates, which quantify minerals transference between water and riverbed and (iii) a solute transport model, based on the 1D OTIS model which takes into account the temporal delay in solutes transport that typically is observed in natural channels (transient storage). Hydrochemistry is solved using PHREEQC, a software for speciation and batch reaction. Our results show that correlation between mineral precipitation and dissolution according to pH values changes along the river. Based on pH measurements (and according to literature) we inferred that main minerals in the water system are brochantite, ferrihydrite, hydrobasaluminite and schwertmannite. Results show that our model can predict the transport and fate of minerals and metals in the Yerba Loca Basin. Mineral dissolution and precipitation process occur for limited ranges of pH values. When pH values are increased, iron minerals (schwertmannite) are the first to precipitate ( 2.5

  14. Predictive value of semen parameters and age of the couple in pregnancy outcome after Intrauterine insemination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjan Sabbaghian

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Intrauterine insemination (IUI is one the most common methods in infertility treatment, but its efficiency in infertile couples with male factor is controversial. This study is a retrospective study about correlation between semen parameters and male and female age with successful rate of IUI in patients attending to Royan Institute.Methods: A total of 998 consecutive couples in a period of 6 months undergoing IUI were included. They were classified into two groups: couples with successful and unsuccessful pregnancy. Main outcome was clinical pregnancy. Data about male and female ages and semen analysis including concentration, total sperm motility, class A motility, class B motility, class A+B motility and normal morphology was extracted from patients’ records. Semen samples were collected by masturbation or coitus after 2 to 7 days of abstinence. Their female partners were reported to have no chronic medi-cal conditions and have normal menstrual cycles.Results: One hundred and fifty seven of total 998 cycles (15.7% achieved pregnancy. The average of female age in successful and unsuccessful group was 28.95±4.19 and 30.00±4.56 years, respectively. Mean of male age was 33.97±4.85 years in successful group and 34.44±4.62 years in unsuccessful group. In successful and unsuccessful groups, average of sperm concentration was 53.62±38.45 and 46.26±26.59 (million sperm/ml, normal morphology of sperm was 8.98±4.31 (% and 8.68±4.81 (%, sperm total motility was 47.24±18.92 (% and 43.70±20.22 (% and total motile sperm count was 80.10±63.61 million and 78.57±68.22 million, respectively.Conclusion: There was no significant difference in mean of females’ age and males’ age between successful and unsuccessful groups (P<0.05. In addition, there was no significant difference in semen parameters including concentration, total sperm motility, class A motility, class B motility, class A+B motility and normal morphology between two

  15. Heisenberg coupling constant predicted for molecular magnets with pairwise spin-contamination correction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masunov, Artëm E., E-mail: amasunov@ucf.edu [NanoScience Technology Center, Department of Chemistry, and Department of Physics, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32826 (United States); Photochemistry Center RAS, ul. Novatorov 7a, Moscow 119421 (Russian Federation); Gangopadhyay, Shruba [Department of Physics, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); IBM Almaden Research Center, 650 Harry Road, San Jose, CA 95120 (United States)

    2015-12-15

    New method to eliminate the spin-contamination in broken symmetry density functional theory (BS DFT) calculations is introduced. Unlike conventional spin-purification correction, this method is based on canonical Natural Orbitals (NO) for each high/low spin coupled electron pair. We derive an expression to extract the energy of the pure singlet state given in terms of energy of BS DFT solution, the occupation number of the bonding NO, and the energy of the higher spin state built on these bonding and antibonding NOs (not self-consistent Kohn–Sham orbitals of the high spin state). Compared to the other spin-contamination correction schemes, spin-correction is applied to each correlated electron pair individually. We investigate two binuclear Mn(IV) molecular magnets using this pairwise correction. While one of the molecules is described by magnetic orbitals strongly localized on the metal centers, and spin gap is accurately predicted by Noodleman and Yamaguchi schemes, for the other one the gap is predicted poorly by these schemes due to strong delocalization of the magnetic orbitals onto the ligands. We show our new correction to yield more accurate results in both cases. - Highlights: • Magnetic orbitails obtained for high and low spin states are not related. • Spin-purification correction becomes inaccurate for delocalized magnetic orbitals. • We use the natural orbitals of the broken symmetry state to build high spin state. • This new correction is made separately for each electron pair. • Our spin-purification correction is more accurate for delocalised magnetic orbitals.

  16. Impact of resolving the diurnal cycle in an ocean-atmosphere GCM. Pt. 1: a diurnally forced OGCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernie, D.J. [University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science - Climate, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom); Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat, Experimentation et Approches Numeriques, IPSL, Paris (France); Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB (United Kingdom); Guilyardi, E. [University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science - Climate, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom); Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat, Experimentation et Approches Numeriques, IPSL, Paris (France); Madec, G. [Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat, Experimentation et Approches Numeriques, IPSL, Paris (France); Slingo, J.M.; Woolnough, S.J. [University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science - Climate, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2007-11-15

    The diurnal cycle is a fundamental time scale in the climate system, at which the upper ocean and atmosphere are routinely observed to vary. Current climate models, however, are not configured to resolve the diurnal cycle in the upper ocean or the interaction of the ocean and atmosphere on these time scales. This study examines the diurnal cycle of the tropical upper ocean and its climate impacts. In the present paper, the first of two, a high vertical resolution ocean general circulation model (OGCM), with modified physics, is developed which is able to resolve the diurnal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) and current variability in the upper ocean. It is then validated against a satellite derived parameterization of diurnal SST variability and in-situ current observations. The model is then used to assess rectification of the intraseasonal SST response to the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) by the diurnal cycle of SST. Across the equatorial Indo-Pacific it is found that the diurnal cycle increases the intraseasonal SST response to the MJO by around 20%. In the Pacific, the diurnal cycle also modifies the exchange of momentum between equatorially divergent Ekman currents and the meridionally convergent geostrophic currents beneath, resulting in a 10% increase in the strength of the Ekman cells and equatorial upwelling. How the thermodynamic and dynamical impacts of the diurnal cycle effect the mean state, and variability, of the climate system cannot be fully investigated in the constrained design of ocean-only experiments presented here. The second part of this study, published separately, addresses the climate impacts of the diurnal cycle in the coupled system by coupling the OGCM developed here to an atmosphere general circulation model. (orig.)

  17. Mode-coupling theory predictions for a limited valency attractive square well model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaccarelli, E; Saika-Voivod, I; Moreno, A J; Nave, E La; Buldyrev, S V; Sciortino, F; Tartaglia, P

    2006-01-01

    Recently we have studied, using numerical simulations, a limited valency model, i.e. an attractive square well model with a constraint on the maximum number of bonded neighbours. Studying a large region of temperatures T and packing fractions φ, we have estimated the location of the liquid-gas phase separation spinodal and the loci of dynamic arrest, where the system is trapped in a disordered non-ergodic state. Two distinct arrest lines for the system are present in the system: a (repulsive) glass line at high packing fraction, and a gel line at low φ and T. The former is essentially vertical φ controlled), while the latter is rather horizontal (T controlled) in the φ-T) plane. We here complement the molecular dynamics results with mode coupling theory calculations, using the numerical structure factors as input. We find that the theory predicts a repulsive glass line-in satisfactory agreement with the simulation results-and an attractive glass line, which appears to be unrelated to the gel line

  18. Predictive value of pregnancy history in subfertile couples: results from a nationwide cohort study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Steeg, Jan W.; Steures, Pieternel; Eijkemans, Marinus J. C.; Habbema, J. Dik F.; Hompes, Peter G. A.; Michgelsen, Henri W. B.; van der Heijden, Pieter F. M.; Bossuyt, Patrick M. M.; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben W. J.

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess whether pregnancy history can predict the occurrence of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy in subfertile couples. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Thirty fertility centers in the Netherlands. PATIENT(S): Subfertile, ovulatory women with at least one patent tube and male

  19. Predictive value of pregnancy history in subfertile couples: results from a nationwide cohort study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Steeg, J.W.; Steures, P.; Eijkemans, M.J.C.; Habbema, J.D.F.; Hompes, P.G.A.; Michgelsen, H.W.B.; van der Heijden, P.F.M.; Bossuyt, P.M.M.; van der Veen, F.; Mol, B.W.J.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To assess whether pregnancy history can predict the occurrence of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy in subfertile couples. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Thirty fertility centers in the Netherlands. Patient(s): Subfertile, ovulatory women with at least one patent tube and male

  20. Prediction of Response to Treatment in a Randomized Clinical Trial of Couple Therapy: A 2-Year Follow-Up

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baucom, Brian R.; Atkins, David C.; Simpson, Lorelei E.; Christensen, Andrew

    2009-01-01

    Many studies have examined pretreatment predictors of immediate posttreatment outcome, but few studies have examined prediction of long-term treatment response to couple therapies. Four groups of predictors (demographic, intrapersonal, communication, and other interpersonal) and 2 moderators (pretreatment severity and type of therapy) were…

  1. Improving Air Quality (and Weather) Predictions using Advanced Data Assimilation Techniques Applied to Coupled Models during KORUS-AQ

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmichael, G. R.; Saide, P. E.; Gao, M.; Streets, D. G.; Kim, J.; Woo, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    Ambient aerosols are important air pollutants with direct impacts on human health and on the Earth's weather and climate systems through their interactions with radiation and clouds. Their role is dependent on their distributions of size, number, phase and composition, which vary significantly in space and time. There remain large uncertainties in simulated aerosol distributions due to uncertainties in emission estimates and in chemical and physical processes associated with their formation and removal. These uncertainties lead to large uncertainties in weather and air quality predictions and in estimates of health and climate change impacts. Despite these uncertainties and challenges, regional-scale coupled chemistry-meteorological models such as WRF-Chem have significant capabilities in predicting aerosol distributions and explaining aerosol-weather interactions. We explore the hypothesis that new advances in on-line, coupled atmospheric chemistry/meteorological models, and new emission inversion and data assimilation techniques applicable to such coupled models, can be applied in innovative ways using current and evolving observation systems to improve predictions of aerosol distributions at regional scales. We investigate the impacts of assimilating AOD from geostationary satellite (GOCI) and surface PM2.5 measurements on predictions of AOD and PM in Korea during KORUS-AQ through a series of experiments. The results suggest assimilating datasets from multiple platforms can improve the predictions of aerosol temporal and spatial distributions.

  2. Coupling rainfall observations and satellite soil moisture for predicting event soil loss in Central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todisco, Francesca; Brocca, Luca; Termite, Loris Francesco; Wagner, Wolfgang

    2015-04-01

    specifically the analysis was focused on the evaluation of the effectiveness of coupling modeled or satellite-derived soil moisture with USLE-derived models in predicting event unit soil loss at the plot scale in a silty-clay soil in Central Italy. To this end was used the database of the Masse experimental station developed considering for a given erosive event (an event yielding a measurable soil loss) the simultaneous measures of the total runoff amount, Qe (mm), and soil loss per unit area, Ae (Mg-ha-1) at plot scale and of the rainfall data required to derive the erosivity factor Re according to Wischmeiser and Smith (1978), with a MIT=6 h (Bagarello et al., 2013; Todisco et al., 2012). To the purpose of this investigation only data collected on the λ = 22 m long plots were considered: 63 erosive events in the period 2008-2013, 18 occurred during the dry period (from June to September) and the other 45 in the complementary period (wet period). The models tested are the USLE/RUSLE and some USLE-derived formulations in which the event erosivity factor, Re, is corrected by the antecedent soil moisture, θ, and powered to an exponent α > 0 (α =1: linear model; α ≠ 1: power model). Both soil moisture data the satellite retrieved (θ = θsat) and the estimates (θ = θest) of Soil Water Balance model (Brocca et al., 2011) were tested. The results have been compared with those obtained by the USLE/RUSLE, USLE-M and USLE-MM models coupled with a parsimonious rainfall-runoff model, MILc, (Brocca et al. 2011) for the prediction of runoff volume (that in these models is the term used to correct the erosivity factor Re). The results showed that: including direct consideration of antecedent soil moisture and runoff in the event rainfall-runoff factor of the RUSLE/USLE enhanced the capacity of the model to account for variations in event soil loss when soil moisture and runoff volume are measured or predicted reasonably well; the accuracy of the original USLE/RUSLE model was

  3. River-flow predictions for the South African mid-summer using a coupled general circulation model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Olivier, C

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available African Society for Atmospheric Sciences (SASAS) 2013 http://sasas.ukzn.ac.za/homepage.aspx 1 Tel: +27 12 367 6008 Fax: +27 12 367 6189 Email: cobus.olivier@weathersa.co.za RIVER-FLOW PREDICTIONS FOR THE SOUTH AFRICAN MID-SUMMER USING A COUPLED... for Atmospheric Sciences (SASAS) 2013 http://sasas.ukzn.ac.za/homepage.aspx 2 drops to 127 nationally and 65 stations for the area of interest. A recent coupled modeling system developed at the South African Weather Service (SAWS), that utilizes...

  4. Heavy Rainfall Episodes in the Eastern Northeast Brazil Linked to Large-Scale Ocean-Atmosphere Conditions in the Tropical Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yves K. Kouadio

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Relationships between simultaneous occurrences of distinctive atmospheric easterly wave (EW signatures that cross the south-equatorial Atlantic, intense mesoscale convective systems (lifespan > 2 hour that propagate westward over the western south-equatorial Atlantic, and subsequent strong rainfall episodes (anomaly > 10 mm·day−1 that occur in eastern Northeast Brazil (ENEB are investigated. Using a simple diagnostic analysis, twelve cases with EW lifespan ranging between 3 and 8 days and a mean velocity of 8 m·s−1 were selected and documented during each rainy season of 2004, 2005, and 2006. These cases, which represent 50% of the total number of strong rainfall episodes and 60% of the rainfall amount over the ENEB, were concomitant with an acceleration of the trade winds over the south-equatorial Atlantic, an excess of moisture transported westward from Africa to America, and a strengthening of the convective activity in the oceanic region close to Brazil. Most of these episodes occurred during positive sea surface temperature anomaly patterns over the entire south-equatorial Atlantic and low-frequency warm conditions within the oceanic mixing layer. A real-time monitoring and the simulation of this ocean-atmosphere relationship could help in forecasting such dramatic rainfall events.

  5. The Earth System Prediction Suite: Toward a Coordinated U.S. Modeling Capability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theurich, Gerhard; DeLuca, C.; Campbell, T.; Liu, F.; Saint, K.; Vertenstein, M.; Chen, J.; Oehmke, R.; Doyle, J.; Whitcomb, T.; hide

    2016-01-01

    The Earth System Prediction Suite (ESPS) is a collection of flagship U.S. weather and climate models and model components that are being instrumented to conform to interoperability conventions, documented to follow metadata standards, and made available either under open source terms or to credentialed users.The ESPS represents a culmination of efforts to create a common Earth system model architecture, and the advent of increasingly coordinated model development activities in the U.S. ESPS component interfaces are based on the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF), community-developed software for building and coupling models, and the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Layer, a set of ESMF-based component templates and interoperability conventions. This shared infrastructure simplifies the process of model coupling by guaranteeing that components conform to a set of technical and semantic behaviors. The ESPS encourages distributed, multi-agency development of coupled modeling systems, controlled experimentation and testing, and exploration of novel model configurations, such as those motivated by research involving managed and interactive ensembles. ESPS codes include the Navy Global Environmental Model (NavGEM), HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), and Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS); the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) and the Modular Ocean Model (MOM); the Community Earth System Model (CESM); and the NASA ModelE climate model and GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model.

  6. Prediction of partial synchronization in delay-coupled nonlinear oscillators, with application to Hindmarsh–Rose neurons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ünal, Hakkı Ulaş; Michiels, Wim

    2013-01-01

    The full synchronization of coupled nonlinear oscillators has been widely studied. In this paper we investigate conditions for which partial synchronization of time-delayed diffusively coupled systems arises. The coupling configuration of the systems is described by a directed graph. As a novel quantitative result we first give necessary and sufficient conditions for the presence of forward invariant sets characterized by partially synchronous motion. These conditions can easily be checked from the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the graph Laplacian. Second, we perform stability analysis of the synchronized equilibria in a (gain,delay) parameter space. For this analysis the coupled nonlinear systems are linearized around the synchronized equilibria and then the resulting characteristic function is factorized. By such a factorization, it is shown that the relation between the behaviour of different agents at the zero of the characteristic function depends on the structure of the eigenvectors of the weighted Laplacian matrix. By determining the structure of the solutions in the unstable manifold, combined with the characterization of invariant sets, we predict which partially synchronous regimes occur and estimate the corresponding coupling gain and delay values. We apply the obtained results to networks of coupled Hindmarsh–Rose neurons and verify the occurrence of the expected partially synchronous regimes by using a numerical simulation. We also make a comparison with an existing approach based on Lyapunov functionals. (paper)

  7. Greater emotional arousal predicts poorer long-term memory of communication skills in couples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baucom, Brian R; Weusthoff, Sarah; Atkins, David C; Hahlweg, Kurt

    2012-06-01

    Many studies have examined the importance of learning skills in behaviorally based couple interventions but none have examined predictors of long-term memory for skills. Associations between emotional arousal and long-term recall of communication skills delivered to couples during a behaviorally based relationship distress prevention program were examined in a sample of 49 German couples. Fundamental frequency (f(0)), a vocal measure of encoded emotional arousal, was measured during pre-treatment couple conflict. Higher levels of f(0) were linked to fewer skills remembered 11 years after completing the program, and women remembered more skills than men. Implications of results for behaviorally based couple interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Mass scale of vectorlike matter and superpartners from IR fixed point predictions of gauge and top Yukawa couplings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dermíšek, Radovan; McGinnis, Navin

    2018-03-01

    We use the IR fixed point predictions for gauge couplings and the top Yukawa coupling in the minimal supersymmetric model (MSSM) extended with vectorlike families to infer the scale of vectorlike matter and superpartners. We quote results for several extensions of the MSSM and present results in detail for the MSSM extended with one complete vectorlike family. We find that for a unified gauge coupling αG>0.3 vectorlike matter or superpartners are expected within 1.7 TeV (2.5 TeV) based on all three gauge couplings being simultaneously within 1.5% (5%) from observed values. This range extends to about 4 TeV for αG>0.2 . We also find that in the scenario with two additional large Yukawa couplings of vectorlike quarks the IR fixed point value of the top Yukawa coupling independently points to a multi-TeV range for vectorlike matter and superpartners. Assuming a universal value for all large Yukawa couplings at the grand unified theory scale, the measured top quark mass can be obtained from the IR fixed point for tan β ≃4 . The range expands to any tan β >3 for significant departures from the universality assumption. Considering that the Higgs boson mass also points to a multi-TeV range for superpartners in the MSSM, adding a complete vectorlike family at the same scale provides a compelling scenario where the values of gauge couplings and the top quark mass are understood as a consequence of the particle content of the model.

  9. Predictability of a Coupled Model of ENSO Using Singular Vector Analysis: Optimal Growth and Forecast Skill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yan

    The optimal growth and its relationship with the forecast skill of the Zebiak and Cane model are studied using a simple statistical model best fit to the original nonlinear model and local linear tangent models about idealized climatic states (the mean background and ENSO cycles in a long model run), and the actual forecast states, including two sets of runs using two different initialization procedures. The seasonally varying Markov model best fit to a suite of 3-year forecasts in a reduced EOF space (18 EOFs) fits the original nonlinear model reasonably well and has comparable or better forecast skill. The initial error growth in a linear evolution operator A is governed by the eigenvalues of A^{T}A, and the square roots of eigenvalues and eigenvectors of A^{T}A are named singular values and singular vectors. One dominant growing singular vector is found, and the optimal 6 month growth rate is largest for a (boreal) spring start and smallest for a fall start. Most of the variation in the optimal growth rate of the two forecasts is seasonal, attributable to the seasonal variations in the mean background, except that in the cold events it is substantially suppressed. It is found that the mean background (zero anomaly) is the most unstable state, and the "forecast IC states" are more unstable than the "coupled model states". One dominant growing singular vector is found, characterized by north-south and east -west dipoles, convergent winds on the equator in the eastern Pacific and a deepened thermocline in the whole equatorial belt. This singular vector is insensitive to initial time and optimization time, but its final pattern is a strong function of initial states. The ENSO system is inherently unpredictable for the dominant singular vector can amplify 5-fold to 24-fold in 6 months and evolve into the large scales characteristic of ENSO. However, the inherent ENSO predictability is only a secondary factor, while the mismatches between the model and data is a

  10. Final Report Coupling in silico microbial models with reactive transport models to predict the fate of contaminants in the subsurface.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lovley, Derek R.

    2012-10-31

    This project successfully accomplished its goal of coupling genome-scale metabolic models with hydrological and geochemical models to predict the activity of subsurface microorganisms during uranium bioremediation. Furthermore, it was demonstrated how this modeling approach can be used to develop new strategies to optimize bioremediation. The approach of coupling genome-scale metabolic models with reactive transport modeling is now well enough established that it has been adopted by other DOE investigators studying uranium bioremediation. Furthermore, the basic principles developed during our studies will be applicable to much broader investigations of microbial activities, not only for other types of bioremediation, but microbial metabolism in diversity of environments. This approach has the potential to make an important contribution to predicting the impact of environmental perturbations on the cycling of carbon and other biogeochemical cycles.

  11. Will high-resolution global ocean models benefit coupled predictions on short-range to climate timescales?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt, Helene T.; Bell, Michael J.; Chassignet, Eric P.; Czaja, Arnaud; Ferreira, David; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hyder, Pat; McClean, Julie L.; New, Adrian L.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

    2017-12-01

    As the importance of the ocean in the weather and climate system is increasingly recognised, operational systems are now moving towards coupled prediction not only for seasonal to climate timescales but also for short-range forecasts. A three-way tension exists between the allocation of computing resources to refine model resolution, the expansion of model complexity/capability, and the increase of ensemble size. Here we review evidence for the benefits of increased ocean resolution in global coupled models, where the ocean component explicitly represents transient mesoscale eddies and narrow boundary currents. We consider lessons learned from forced ocean/sea-ice simulations; from studies concerning the SST resolution required to impact atmospheric simulations; and from coupled predictions. Impacts of the mesoscale ocean in western boundary current regions on the large-scale atmospheric state have been identified. Understanding of air-sea feedback in western boundary currents is modifying our view of the dynamics in these key regions. It remains unclear whether variability associated with open ocean mesoscale eddies is equally important to the large-scale atmospheric state. We include a discussion of what processes can presently be parameterised in coupled models with coarse resolution non-eddying ocean models, and where parameterizations may fall short. We discuss the benefits of resolution and identify gaps in the current literature that leave important questions unanswered.

  12. Coupling a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model with Large-Eddy Simulation for Realistic Wind Plant Aerodynamics Simulations (Poster)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Draxl, C.; Churchfield, M.; Mirocha, J.; Lee, S.; Lundquist, J.; Michalakes, J.; Moriarty, P.; Purkayastha, A.; Sprague, M.; Vanderwende, B.

    2014-06-01

    Wind plant aerodynamics are influenced by a combination of microscale and mesoscale phenomena. Incorporating mesoscale atmospheric forcing (e.g., diurnal cycles and frontal passages) into wind plant simulations can lead to a more accurate representation of microscale flows, aerodynamics, and wind turbine/plant performance. Our goal is to couple a numerical weather prediction model that can represent mesoscale flow [specifically the Weather Research and Forecasting model] with a microscale LES model (OpenFOAM) that can predict microscale turbulence and wake losses.

  13. Quality-Controlled Underway Oceanographic and Meteorological Data from the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Predictions Center (COAPS) - Shipboard Automated Meteorological and Oceanographic System (SAMOS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Florida State University has been operating a data assembly center (DAC) to collect, quality evaluate, and distribute Shipboard Automated Meteorological and...

  14. Geochemistry of coral from Papua New Guinea as a proxy for ENSO ocean-atmosphere interactions in the Pacific Warm Pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayliffe, Linda K.; Bird, Michael I.; Gagan, Michael K.; Isdale, Peter J.; Scott-Gagan, Heather; Parker, Bruce; Griffin, David; Nongkas, Michael; McCulloch, Malcolm T.

    2004-12-01

    A Porites sp. coral growing offshore from the Sepik and Ramu Rivers in equatorial northern Papua New Guinea has yielded an accurate 20-year history (1977-1996) of sea surface temperature (SST), river discharge, and wind-induced mixing of the upper water column. Depressions in average SSTs of about 0.5-1.0 °C (indicated by coral Sr/Ca) and markedly diminished freshwater runoff to the coastal ocean (indicated by coral δ18O, δ13C and UV fluorescence) are evident during the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of 1982-1983, 1987 and 1991-1993. The perturbations recorded by the coral are in good agreement with changes in instrumental SST and river discharge/precipitation records, which are known to be diagnostic of the response of the Pacific Warm Pool ocean-atmosphere system to El Niño. Consideration of coastal ocean dynamics indicates that the establishment of northwest monsoon winds promotes mixing of near-surface waters to greater depths in the first quarter of most years, making the coral record sensitive to changes in the Asian-Australian monsoon cycle. Sudden cooling of SSTs by ˜1°C following westerly wind episodes, as indicated by the coral Sr/Ca, is consistent with greater mixing in the upper water column at these times. Furthermore, the coral UV fluorescence and oxygen isotope data indicate minimal contribution of river runoff to surface ocean waters at the beginning of most years, during the time of maximum discharge. This abrupt shift in flood-plume behaviour appears to reflect the duration and magnitude of northwest monsoon winds, which tend to disperse flood plume waters to a greater extent in the water column when wind-mixing is enhanced. Our results suggest that a multi-proxy geochemical approach to the production of long coral records should provide comprehensive reconstructions of tropical paleoclimate processes operating on interannual timescales.

  15. Longitudinal prediction of divorce in Russia: the role of individual and couple drinking patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keenan, Katherine; Kenward, Michael G; Grundy, Emily; Leon, David A

    2013-01-01

    The aim of the study was to explore associations between dimensions of alcohol use in married couples and subsequent divorce in Russia using longitudinal data. Follow-up data on 7157 married couples were extracted from 14 consecutive annual rounds (1994-2010) of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, a national population-based panel study. Discrete-time hazard models were fitted to estimate the probability of divorce among married couples by drinking patterns reported in the previous survey wave. In adjusted models, increased odds of divorce were associated with greater frequency of husband and wife drinking (test for trend P = 0.005, and P = 0.05, respectively), wife's binge drinking (P = 0.05) and husband's heavy vodka drinking (P = 0.005). Couples in whom the wife drank more frequently than the husband were more likely to divorce (OR 2.86, 95% CI 1.52-5.36), compared with other combinations of drinking. The association between drinking and divorce was stronger in regions outside Moscow or St. Petersburg. This study adds to the sparse literature on the topic and suggests that in Russia heavy and frequent drinking of both husbands and wives put couples at greater risk of future divorce, with some variation by region and aspect of alcohol use.

  16. Flash Flood Prediction by Coupling KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS Models for Tropical Regions of Northern Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Quang Nguyen

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Northern Vietnam is a region prone to heavy flash flooding events. These often have devastating effects on the environment, cause economic damage and, in the worst case scenario, cost human lives. As their frequency and severity are likely to increase in the future, procedures have to be established to cope with this threat. As the prediction of potential flash floods represents one crucial element in this circumstance, we will present an approach that combines the two models KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS in order to accurately predict their occurrence. We used a documented event on 23 June 2011 in the Nam Khat and the larger adjacent Nam Kim watershed to calibrate the coupled model approach. Afterward, we evaluated the performance of the coupled models in predicting flow velocity (FV, water levels (WL, discharge (Q and streamflow power (P during the 3–5 days following the event, using two different precipitation datasets from the global spectral model (GSM and the high resolution model (HRM. Our results show that the estimated Q and WL closely matched observed data with a Nash–Sutcliffe simulation efficiency coefficient (NSE of around 0.93 and a coefficient of determination (R2 at above 0.96. The resulting analyses reveal strong relationships between river geometry and FV, WL and P. Although there were some minor errors in forecast results, the model-predicted Q and WL corresponded well to the gauged data.

  17. Salience and Default Mode Network Coupling Predicts Cognition in Aging and Parkinson's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putcha, Deepti; Ross, Robert S; Cronin-Golomb, Alice; Janes, Amy C; Stern, Chantal E

    2016-02-01

    Cognitive impairment is common in Parkinson's disease (PD). Three neurocognitive networks support efficient cognition: the salience network, the default mode network, and the central executive network. The salience network is thought to switch between activating and deactivating the default mode and central executive networks. Anti-correlated interactions between the salience and default mode networks in particular are necessary for efficient cognition. Our previous work demonstrated altered functional coupling between the neurocognitive networks in non-demented individuals with PD compared to age-matched control participants. Here, we aim to identify associations between cognition and functional coupling between these neurocognitive networks in the same group of participants. We investigated the extent to which intrinsic functional coupling among these neurocognitive networks is related to cognitive performance across three neuropsychological domains: executive functioning, psychomotor speed, and verbal memory. Twenty-four non-demented individuals with mild to moderate PD and 20 control participants were scanned at rest and evaluated on three neuropsychological domains. PD participants were impaired on tests from all three domains compared to control participants. Our imaging results demonstrated that successful cognition across healthy aging and Parkinson's disease participants was related to anti-correlated coupling between the salience and default mode networks. Individuals with poorer performance scores across groups demonstrated more positive salience network/default-mode network coupling. Successful cognition relies on healthy coupling between the salience and default mode networks, which may become dysfunctional in PD. These results can help inform non-pharmacological interventions (repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation) targeting these specific networks before they become vulnerable in early stages of Parkinson's disease.

  18. Lifetime prediction of LED lighting systems considering thermal coupling between LED sources and drivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alfarog, Azzarn Orner; Qu, Xiaohui; Wang, Huai

    2017-01-01

    and accelerate the failure. In this paper, a new thermal model concerning the thermal coupling is proposed with Finite Element Method (FEM) simulation for parameter acquirement. The proposed model has a better estimation of the thermal stresses of key components in the LED lamps and therefore an improved...... separately, and then the thermal design is also optimized independently. In practice, the LED source and driver are usually compacted in a single fixture. The heat dissipated from LED source and driver will be coupled together and affect the heat transfer performance, which may degrade the whole system...

  19. Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gladstone, Rupert M.; Lee, Victoria; Rougier, Jonathan; Payne, Antony J.; Hellmer, Hartmut; Le Brocq, Anne; Shepherd, Andrew; Edwards, Tamsin L.; Gregory, Jonathan; Cornford, Stephen L.

    2012-06-01

    A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B ‘business as usual’ emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200 yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility.

  20. Inflationary predictions of double-well, Coleman-Weinberg, and hilltop potentials with non-minimal coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostan, Nilay; Güleryüz, Ömer; Nefer Şenoğuz, Vedat

    2018-05-01

    We discuss how the non-minimal coupling ξphi2R between the inflaton and the Ricci scalar affects the predictions of single field inflation models where the inflaton has a non-zero vacuum expectation value (VEV) v after inflation. We show that, for inflaton values both above the VEV and below the VEV during inflation, under certain conditions the inflationary predictions become approximately the same as the predictions of the Starobinsky model. We then analyze inflation with double-well and Coleman-Weinberg potentials in detail, displaying the regions in the v-ξ plane for which the spectral index ns and the tensor-to-scalar ratio r values are compatible with the current observations. r is always larger than 0.002 in these regions. Finally, we consider the effect of ξ on small field inflation (hilltop) potentials.

  1. The influence of an atmospheric Two-Way coupled model system on the predictability of extratropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, Mareike; Thürkow, Markus; Weiher, Stefan; Kirchner, Ingo; Ulbrich, Uwe; Will, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    A general bias of global atmosphere ocean models, and also of the MPI-ESM, is an under-representation of the high latitude cyclone activity and an overestimation of the mid latitude cyclone activity in the North Atlantic, thus representing the extra-tropical storm track too zonal. We will show, that this effect can be antagonized by applying an atmospheric Two-Way Coupling (TWC). In this study we present a newly developed Two-Way Coupled model system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, and show that it is able to capture the mean storm track location more accurate. It also influences the sub-decadal deterministic predictability of extra-tropical cyclones and shows significantly enhanced skill compared to the "uncoupled" MPI-ESM standalone system. This study evaluates a set of hindcast experiments performed with said Two-Way Coupled model system. The regional model COSMO CLM is Two-Way Coupled to the atmosphere of the global Max-Plack-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and therefore integrates and exchanges the state of the atmosphere every 10 minutes (MPI-TWC-ESM). In the coupled source region (North Atlantic), mesoscale processes which are relevant for the formation and early-stage development of cyclones are expected to be better represented, and therefore influence the large scale dynamics of the target region (Europe). The database covers 102 "uncoupled" years and 102 Two-Way Coupled years of the recent climate (1960-2010). Results are validated against the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Besides the climatological point of view, the design of this single model ensemble allows for an analysis of the predictability of the first and second leadyears of the hindcasts. As a first step to understand the improved predictability of cyclones, we will show a detailed analysis of climatologies for specific cyclone categories, sorted by season and region. Especially for cyclones affecting Europe, the TWC is capable to counteract the AOGCM's biases in the North Atlantic. Also

  2. Steady-State Core Temperature Prediction Based on GAMMA+/CAPP Coupling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tak, Nam-il; Lee, Hyun-Chul; Lim, Hong-Sik

    2015-01-01

    In spite of sizable applications of the GAMMA+ code for the thermo-fluid analysis and design of a prismatic VHTR, the existing works are limited to stand-alone calculations. In the stand-alone calculations, information from the neutronic analysis (e.g., reactor power density profile) was considered only once i.e., when the calculations get started. For the neutronic analysis and design of a VHTR, the CAPP code, which is also under development at KAERI, is used. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the capability of GAMMA+ and CAPP coupling and to examine the results of the coupled analysis. Based on the coupling of GAMMA+ and CAPP, the steady-state core temperature was investigated in this work. It is found that the communication of data was successful. And the results of the GAMMA+ and CAPP coupling are found to be reasonable. The design modification of PMR200 is required to satisfy the design limit for the hot spot fuel temperature

  3. On the comparison between seasonal predictive skill of global circulation models: Coupled versus uncoupled

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Beraki, AF

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The study compares one- and two-tiered forecasting systems as represented by the South African Weather Service Coupled Model and its atmosphere-only version. In this comparative framework, the main difference between these global climate models...

  4. Departures from predicted type II behavior in dirty strong-coupling superconductors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, J.C.; Neighbor, J.E.; Shiffman, C.A.

    1976-01-01

    Calorimetric measurements of the Ginsburg-Landau parameters for Pb-Sn and Pb-Bi alloys show good agreement with the calculations of Rainer and Bergmann for kappa 1 (t)/kappa 1 (1). However, the calculations of Rainer and Usadel for kappa 2 (t)/kappa 2 (1) substantially underestimate the enhancements due to strong-coupling. (Auth.)

  5. Predictive uncertainty reduction in coupled neutron-kinetics/thermal hydraulics modeling of the BWR-TT2 benchmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Badea, Aurelian F., E-mail: aurelian.badea@kit.edu [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Vincenz-Prießnitz-Str. 3, 76131 Karlsruhe (Germany); Cacuci, Dan G. [Center for Nuclear Science and Energy/Dept. of ME, University of South Carolina, 300 Main Street, Columbia, SC 29208 (United States)

    2017-03-15

    Highlights: • BWR Turbine Trip 2 (BWR-TT2) benchmark. • Substantial (up to 50%) reduction of uncertainties in the predicted transient power. • 6660 uncertain model parameters were calibrated. - Abstract: By applying a comprehensive predictive modeling methodology, this work demonstrates a substantial (up to 50%) reduction of uncertainties in the predicted total transient power in the BWR Turbine Trip 2 (BWR-TT2) benchmark while calibrating the numerical simulation of this benchmark, comprising 6090 macroscopic cross sections, and 570 thermal-hydraulics parameters involved in modeling the phase-slip correlation, transient outlet pressure, and total mass flow. The BWR-TT2 benchmark is based on an experiment that was carried out in 1977 in the NPP Peach Bottom 2, involving the closure of the turbine stop valve which caused a pressure wave that propagated with attenuation into the reactor core. The condensation of the steam in the reactor core caused by the pressure increase led to a positive reactivity insertion. The subsequent rise of power was limited by the feedback and the insertion of the control rods. The BWR-TT2 benchmark was modeled with the three-dimensional reactor physics code system DYN3D, by coupling neutron kinetics with two-phase thermal-hydraulics. All 6660 DYN3D model parameters were calibrated by applying a predictive modeling methodology that combines experimental and computational information to produce optimally predicted best-estimate results with reduced predicted uncertainties. Simultaneously, the predictive modeling methodology yields optimally predicted values for the BWR total transient power while reducing significantly the accompanying predicted standard deviations.

  6. Predictive uncertainty reduction in coupled neutron-kinetics/thermal hydraulics modeling of the BWR-TT2 benchmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badea, Aurelian F.; Cacuci, Dan G.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • BWR Turbine Trip 2 (BWR-TT2) benchmark. • Substantial (up to 50%) reduction of uncertainties in the predicted transient power. • 6660 uncertain model parameters were calibrated. - Abstract: By applying a comprehensive predictive modeling methodology, this work demonstrates a substantial (up to 50%) reduction of uncertainties in the predicted total transient power in the BWR Turbine Trip 2 (BWR-TT2) benchmark while calibrating the numerical simulation of this benchmark, comprising 6090 macroscopic cross sections, and 570 thermal-hydraulics parameters involved in modeling the phase-slip correlation, transient outlet pressure, and total mass flow. The BWR-TT2 benchmark is based on an experiment that was carried out in 1977 in the NPP Peach Bottom 2, involving the closure of the turbine stop valve which caused a pressure wave that propagated with attenuation into the reactor core. The condensation of the steam in the reactor core caused by the pressure increase led to a positive reactivity insertion. The subsequent rise of power was limited by the feedback and the insertion of the control rods. The BWR-TT2 benchmark was modeled with the three-dimensional reactor physics code system DYN3D, by coupling neutron kinetics with two-phase thermal-hydraulics. All 6660 DYN3D model parameters were calibrated by applying a predictive modeling methodology that combines experimental and computational information to produce optimally predicted best-estimate results with reduced predicted uncertainties. Simultaneously, the predictive modeling methodology yields optimally predicted values for the BWR total transient power while reducing significantly the accompanying predicted standard deviations.

  7. (In)Congruence of implicit and explicit communal motives predicts the quality and stability of couple relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagemeyer, Birk; Neberich, Wiebke; Asendorpf, Jens B; Neyer, Franz J

    2013-08-01

    Previous research has shown that motive congruence, as observed in convergingly high or low scores on implicit and explicit motive measures, promotes well-being and health. Extending this individual perspective to the realm of couple relationships, the present investigation examined intra- and interpersonal effects of communal motive (in)congruence on relationship satisfaction and stability. The implicit partner-related need for communion, the explicit desire for closeness, and relationship satisfaction were assessed in a sample of 547 heterosexual couples aged 18 to 73 years. In a one-year follow-up study, information on relationship stability was obtained, and relationship satisfaction was reassessed. The researchers tested cross-sectional and longitudinal effects of motive (in)congruence by dyadic moderation analyses. Individuals scoring congruently high on both motives reported the highest relationship satisfaction in concurrence with motive assessment and 1 year later. In addition, motive incongruence predicted an increased risk of relationship breakup over 1 year. The results highlight the significance of both implicit and explicit motives for couple relationships. Motive incongruence was confirmed as a dispositional risk factor that so far has not been considered in couple research. Future research directions addressing potential mediators of the observed effects and potential moderators of motive (in)congruence are discussed. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Peptide retention prediction using hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badgett, Majors J; Boyes, Barry; Orlando, Ron

    2018-02-16

    A model that predicts retention for peptides using a HALO ® penta-HILIC column and gradient elution was created. Coefficients for each amino acid were derived using linear regression analysis and these coefficients can be summed to predict the retention of peptides. This model has a high correlation between experimental and predicted retention times (0.946), which is on par with previous RP and HILIC models. External validation of the model was performed using a set of H. pylori samples on the same LC-MS system used to create the model, and the deviation from actual to predicted times was low. Apart from amino acid composition, length and location of amino acid residues on a peptide were examined and two site-specific corrections for hydrophobic residues at the N-terminus as well as hydrophobic residues one spot over from the N-terminus were created. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Java-Based Coupling for Parallel Predictive-Adaptive Domain Decomposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cécile Germain‐Renaud

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Adaptive domain decomposition exemplifies the problem of integrating heterogeneous software components with intermediate coupling granularity. This paper describes an experiment where a data‐parallel (HPF client interfaces with a sequential computation server through Java. We show that seamless integration of data‐parallelism is possible, but requires most of the tools from the Java palette: Java Native Interface (JNI, Remote Method Invocation (RMI, callbacks and threads.

  10. Ice–ocean coupled computations for sea-ice prediction to support ice navigation in Arctic sea routes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liyanarachchi Waruna Arampath De Silva

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available With the recent rapid decrease in summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean extending the navigation period in the Arctic sea routes (ASR, the precise prediction of ice distribution is crucial for safe and efficient navigation in the Arctic Ocean. In general, however, most of the available numerical models have exhibited significant uncertainties in short-term and narrow-area predictions, especially in marginal ice zones such as the ASR. In this study, we predict short-term sea-ice conditions in the ASR by using a mesoscale eddy-resolving ice–ocean coupled model that explicitly treats ice floe collisions in marginal ice zones. First, numerical issues associated with collision rheology in the ice–ocean coupled model (ice–Princeton Ocean Model [POM] are discussed and resolved. A model for the whole of the Arctic Ocean with a coarser resolution (about 25 km was developed to investigate the performance of the ice–POM model by examining the reproducibility of seasonal and interannual sea-ice variability. It was found that this coarser resolution model can reproduce seasonal and interannual sea-ice variations compared to observations, but it cannot be used to predict variations over the short-term, such as one to two weeks. Therefore, second, high-resolution (about 2.5 km regional models were set up along the ASR to investigate the accuracy of short-term sea-ice predictions. High-resolution computations were able to reasonably reproduce the sea-ice extent compared to Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observing System satellite observations because of the improved expression of the ice–albedo feedback process and the ice–eddy interaction process.

  11. Couple Interaction and Predicting Vulnerability to Domestic Violence in Uttar Pradesh, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Brijesh P; Singh, Kaushalendra K; Singh, Neha

    2014-08-01

    Domestic violence, when conducted against women, is a type of gender-based violence that negatively impacts a woman's physical and psychological health, causing insecurity, lack of safety, and loss of health and self-worth. Domestic violence is an important consideration for sexual, reproductive, and child health, as it can affect contraceptive behaviors of couples as well as levels of infant mortality. In the present analysis, an attempt has been made to study the relationship between women's experience of domestic violence and couple interaction after controlling for certain socioeconomic and demographic variables using logistic regression. This study looks at data from the National Family Health Survey-III conducted from 2005 to 2006 in Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state of India. Findings reveal that 43% of women suffer from domestic violence in the society as a whole; however, if a couple makes joint decisions in household matters, the prevalence of domestic violence is observed to be 24% less. Education and occupation of women, standard of living, media exposure, and partner's alcoholic behaviors are also found to be possible predictors of domestic violence. © The Author(s) 2014.

  12. Impact of Soil Moisture Assimilation on Land Surface Model Spin-Up and Coupled LandAtmosphere Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Lawston, P.

    2016-01-01

    Advances in satellite monitoring of the terrestrial water cycle have led to a concerted effort to assimilate soil moisture observations from various platforms into offline land surface models (LSMs). One principal but still open question is that of the ability of land data assimilation (LDA) to improve LSM initial conditions for coupled short-term weather prediction. In this study, the impact of assimilating Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) soil moisture retrievals on coupled WRF Model forecasts is examined during the summers of dry (2006) and wet (2007) surface conditions in the southern Great Plains. LDA is carried out using NASAs Land Information System (LIS) and the Noah LSM through an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach. The impacts of LDA on the 1) soil moisture and soil temperature initial conditions for WRF, 2) land-atmosphere coupling characteristics, and 3) ambient weather of the coupled LIS-WRF simulations are then assessed. Results show that impacts of soil moisture LDA during the spin-up can significantly modify LSM states and fluxes, depending on regime and season. Results also indicate that the use of seasonal cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) is more advantageous compared to the traditional annual CDF bias correction strategies. LDA performs consistently regardless of atmospheric forcing applied, with greater improvements seen when using coarser, global forcing products. Downstream impacts on coupled simulations vary according to the strength of the LDA impact at the initialization, where significant modifications to the soil moisture flux- PBL-ambient weather process chain are observed. Overall, this study demonstrates potential for future, higher-resolution soil moisture assimilation applications in weather and climate research.

  13. Coital frequency and infertility: which male factors predict less frequent coitus among infertile couples?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perlis, Nathan; Lo, Kirk C; Grober, Ethan D; Spencer, Leia; Jarvi, Keith

    2013-08-01

    To determine the coital frequency among infertile couples and which factors are associated with less frequent coitus. Cross-sectional study. Tertiary-level male infertility clinic. A total of 1,298 infertile men. Administration of computer-based survey, semen analysis, and serum hormone evaluation. Monthly coital frequency. A total of 1,298 patients presented to clinic for infertility consultation and completed the computer-based survey. The median male age was 35 years (interquartile range [IQR] 32-39 years) and the median duration of infertility was 2 years (IQR 1-4 years) before consultation. Median monthly coital frequency was seven (IQR 5-10; range 0-40); 24% of couples were having intercourse ≤ 4 times per month. Overall, 0.6%, 2.7%, 4.8%, 5.8%, and 10.8% of the men reported having intercourse 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 times per month, respectively. When simultaneously taking into account the influence of age, libido, erectile function, and semen volume on coital frequency, older patients had 1.05 times higher odds (per year of age) of less frequent coitus (odds ratio 1.05, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.08). In addition, patients with better erectile function had 1.12 times higher odds (per point on Sexual Health Inventory for Men scale) of more frequent coitus (odds ratio 1.12, 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.18). Similar to the general population, most infertile couples report having coitus more than four times per month. Older male age and erectile dysfunction are independent risk factors for less frequent coitus among infertile men, which could have an impact on fertility. Coital frequency should be considered in infertility assessments. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Standard coupling unification in SO(10), hybrid seesaw neutrino mass and leptogenesis, dark matter, and proton lifetime predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parida, M.K.; Nayak, Bidyut Prava; Satpathy, Rajesh [Centre of Excellence in Theoretical and Mathematical Sciences,Siksha ‘O’ Anusandhan University,Khandagiri Square, Bhubaneswar 751030 (India); Awasthi, Ram Lal [Indian Institute of Science Education and Research,Knowledge City, Sector 81, SAS Nagar, Manauli 140306 (India)

    2017-04-12

    We discuss gauge coupling unification of SU(3){sub C}×SU(2){sub L}×U(1){sub Y} descending directly from non-supersymmetric SO(10) while providing solutions to the three outstanding problems of the standard model: neutrino masses, dark matter, and the baryon asymmetry of the universe. Conservation of matter parity as gauged discrete symmetry for the stability and identification of dark matter in the model calls for high-scale spontaneous symmetry breaking through 126{sub H} Higgs representation. This naturally leads to the hybrid seesaw formula for neutrino masses mediated by heavy scalar triplet and right-handed neutrinos. Being quadratic in the Majorana coupling, the seesaw formula predicts two distinct patterns of right-handed neutrino masses, one hierarchical and another not so hierarchical (or compact), when fitted with the neutrino oscillation data. Predictions of the baryon asymmetry via leptogenesis are investigated through the decays of both the patterns of RHν masses. A complete flavor analysis has been carried out to compute CP-asymmetries including washouts and solutions to Boltzmann equations have been utilised to predict the baryon asymmetry. The additional contribution to vertex correction mediated by the heavy left-handed triplet scalar is noted to contribute as dominantly as other Feynman diagrams. We have found successful predictions of the baryon asymmetry for both the patterns of right-handed neutrino masses. The SU(2){sub L} triplet fermionic dark matter at the TeV scale carrying even matter parity is naturally embedded into the non-standard fermionic representation 45{sub F} of SO(10). In addition to the triplet scalar and the triplet fermion, the model needs a nonstandard color octet fermion of mass ∼5×10{sup 7} GeV to achieve precision gauge coupling unification at the GUT mass scale M{sub U}{sup 0}=10{sup 15.56} GeV. Threshold corrections due to superheavy components of 126{sub H} and other representations are estimated and found to be

  15. Predicting self-pollution inside school buses using a CFD and multi-zone coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fei; Lee, Eon S.; Liu, Junjie; Zhu, Yifang

    2015-04-01

    The in-cabin environment of a school bus is important for children's health. The pollutants from a bus's own exhaust contribute to children's overall exposure to air pollutants inside the school bus cabin. In this study, we adapted a coupled model originally developed for indoor environment to determine the relative contribution of the bus own exhaust to the in-cabin pollutant concentrations. The coupled model uses CFD (computational fluent dynamics) model to simulate outside concentration and CONTAM (a multi-zone model) for inside the school bus. The model was validated with experimental data in the literature. Using the validated model, we analyzed the effects of vehicle speed and tailpipe location on self-pollution inside the bus cabin. We confirmed that the pollution released from the tailpipe can penetrate into the bus cabin through gaps in the back emergency door. We found the pollution concentration inside school buses was the highest when buses were driven at a medium speed. In addition, locating the tailpipe on the side, behind the rear axle resulted in less self-pollution since there is less time for the suction effect to take place. The developed theoretical framework can be generalized to study other types of buses. These findings can be used in developing policy recommendations for reducing human exposure to air pollution inside buses.

  16. Application of fluid-structure coupling to predict the dynamic behavior of turbine components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huebner, B; Seidel, U [Voith Hydro Holding GmbH and Co. KG, Alexanderstr. 11, 89522 Heidenheim (Germany); Roth, S, E-mail: bjoern.huebner@voith.co [Laboratory for Hydraulic Machines, EPFL, Avenue de Cour 33 Bis, 1007 Lausanne (Switzerland)

    2010-08-15

    In hydro turbine design, fluid-structure interaction (FSI) may play an important role. Examples are flow induced inertia and damping effects, vortex induced vibrations in the lock-in vicinity, or hydroelastic instabilities of flows in deforming gaps (e.g. labyrinth seals). In contrast to aeroelasticity, hydroelastic systems require strongly (iteratively) coupled or even monolithic solution procedures, since the fluid mass which is moving with the structure (added-mass effect) is much higher and changes the dynamic behavior of submerged structures considerably. Depending on the mode shape, natural frequencies of a turbine runner in water may be reduced to less than 50% of the corresponding frequencies in air, and flow induced damping effects may become one or two orders of magnitude higher than structural damping. In order to reduce modeling effort and calculation time, the solution strategy has to be adapted precisely to a given application. Hence, depending on the problem to solve, different approximations may apply. Examples are the calculation of natural frequencies and response spectra in water using an acoustic fluid formulation, the determination of flow induced damping effects by means of partitioned FSI including complex turbulent flows, and the identification of hydroelastic instabilities using monolithic coupling of non-linear structural dynamics and water flow.

  17. Motivational Selectivity Prospectively Predicts Couples' Realization of Their Goal to Have a Child

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauers, Antje; Böhnke, Anja; Riediger, Michaela

    2013-01-01

    Developmental theories have emphasized that motivational selectivity--focusing on a few goals instead of "wanting it all"--regulates development in individuals, dyads, or groups. We provide first evidence that this motivational strategy predicts an objective, goal-related developmental outcome years later. We followed up on initially…

  18. Constrained Predictive Control and its application to a Coupled-tanks Apparatus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Kouvaritakis, Basil; Cannon, Mark

    2001-01-01

    The focus of this paper is the development and application to experimental equipment of fast constrained predictive control algorithms. A review of QP based algorithm and an alternative using interpolation and LP is considered. Despite its undemanding computational nature, the latter algorithm...

  19. Prediction of Indian Summer-Monsoon Onset Variability: A Season in Advance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Maheswar; Rao, A Suryachandra; Srivastava, Ankur; Dakate, Ashish; Salunke, Kiran; Shameera, K S

    2017-10-27

    Monsoon onset is an inherent transient phenomenon of Indian Summer Monsoon and it was never envisaged that this transience can be predicted at long lead times. Though onset is precipitous, its variability exhibits strong teleconnections with large scale forcing such as ENSO and IOD and hence may be predictable. Despite of the tremendous skill achieved by the state-of-the-art models in predicting such large scale processes, the prediction of monsoon onset variability by the models is still limited to just 2-3 weeks in advance. Using an objective definition of onset in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model, it is shown that the skillful prediction of onset variability is feasible under seasonal prediction framework. The better representations/simulations of not only the large scale processes but also the synoptic and intraseasonal features during the evolution of monsoon onset are the comprehensions behind skillful simulation of monsoon onset variability. The changes observed in convection, tropospheric circulation and moisture availability prior to and after the onset are evidenced in model simulations, which resulted in high hit rate of early/delay in monsoon onset in the high resolution model.

  20. Lower thermosphere coupling study: Comparison of observations with predictions of the University College London-Sheffield thermosphere-ionosphere model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuller-Rowell, T.J.; Rees, D.; Parish, H.F.; Virdi, T.S.; Williams, P.J.S.; Johnson, R.M.

    1991-01-01

    During the first Lower Thermosphere Coupling Study (LTCS), September 21-25 1987, data were recorded from the incoherent scatter radar sites at EISCAT, Millstone Hill, Sondrestrom, and Arecibo. These experimental facilities measured ionospheric parameters (Ne, Te, Ti, and plasma velocity) in the E and the F regions which have been used to determine the E region neutral wind and infer the neutral temperature in the height range 100-150 km. Propagating tides are clearly visible in some of the parameters, and the latitude structure and phase variations with height indicate the presence of at least the (2,2) and (2,4) global tidal Hough modes. The influence of geomagnetic forcing is also clearly present at high latitudes. The University College London-Sheffield University three-dimensional coupled thermosphere-ionosphere model has been used to simulate this period of observation, by imposing tidal forcing at the lower boundary and magnetospheric forcing at high latitudes, in an attempt to interpret and understand the experimental data. Model simulations are able to predict where the signature of a particular tidal mode is likely to be observed in the respective responses of the temperature and wind structure. The numerical simulations predict the range of observed tidal amplitudes at mid and high latitudes, provided the tidal forcing functions imposed near the lower boundary of the model are larger (400 m geopotential height variation) than those inferred from linear tidal models

  1. Predicting dynamic behavior via anticipating synchronization in coupled pendulum-like systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Shiyun; Yang Ying

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, the regime of anticipating synchronization (sometimes called predicted synchronization) in a class of nonlinear dynamical systems is investigated by testing the global asymptotical stability of time-delayed error dynamics. Sufficient conditions in terms of linear matrix inequalities are established for anticipating synchronization between such systems with and without state time delay. These results allow one to predict the dynamic behavior of the systems by using a copy of the same system that performs as a slave. Moreover, the cascaded anticipating synchronization is concerned such that several slave systems could anticipate the same master system with different delays. Concrete applications to phase-locked loops demonstrate the applicability and validity of the proposed results.

  2. Coupling News Sentiment with Web Browsing Data Improves Prediction of Intra-Day Price Dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriele Ranco

    Full Text Available The new digital revolution of big data is deeply changing our capability of understanding society and forecasting the outcome of many social and economic systems. Unfortunately, information can be very heterogeneous in the importance, relevance, and surprise it conveys, affecting severely the predictive power of semantic and statistical methods. Here we show that the aggregation of web users' behavior can be elicited to overcome this problem in a hard to predict complex system, namely the financial market. Specifically, our in-sample analysis shows that the combined use of sentiment analysis of news and browsing activity of users of Yahoo! Finance greatly helps forecasting intra-day and daily price changes of a set of 100 highly capitalized US stocks traded in the period 2012-2013. Sentiment analysis or browsing activity when taken alone have very small or no predictive power. Conversely, when considering a news signal where in a given time interval we compute the average sentiment of the clicked news, weighted by the number of clicks, we show that for nearly 50% of the companies such signal Granger-causes hourly price returns. Our result indicates a "wisdom-of-the-crowd" effect that allows to exploit users' activity to identify and weigh properly the relevant and surprising news, enhancing considerably the forecasting power of the news sentiment.

  3. Coupling News Sentiment with Web Browsing Data Improves Prediction of Intra-Day Price Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranco, Gabriele; Bordino, Ilaria; Bormetti, Giacomo; Caldarelli, Guido; Lillo, Fabrizio; Treccani, Michele

    2016-01-01

    The new digital revolution of big data is deeply changing our capability of understanding society and forecasting the outcome of many social and economic systems. Unfortunately, information can be very heterogeneous in the importance, relevance, and surprise it conveys, affecting severely the predictive power of semantic and statistical methods. Here we show that the aggregation of web users' behavior can be elicited to overcome this problem in a hard to predict complex system, namely the financial market. Specifically, our in-sample analysis shows that the combined use of sentiment analysis of news and browsing activity of users of Yahoo! Finance greatly helps forecasting intra-day and daily price changes of a set of 100 highly capitalized US stocks traded in the period 2012-2013. Sentiment analysis or browsing activity when taken alone have very small or no predictive power. Conversely, when considering a news signal where in a given time interval we compute the average sentiment of the clicked news, weighted by the number of clicks, we show that for nearly 50% of the companies such signal Granger-causes hourly price returns. Our result indicates a "wisdom-of-the-crowd" effect that allows to exploit users' activity to identify and weigh properly the relevant and surprising news, enhancing considerably the forecasting power of the news sentiment.

  4. Reduction of initial shock in decadal predictions using a new initialization strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yujun; Wang, Bin; Liu, Mimi; Liu, Li; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Juanjuan; Li, Ruizhe; Zhang, Cheng; Xu, Shiming; Huang, Wenyu; Liu, Qun; Wang, Yong; Li, Feifei

    2017-08-01

    A novel full-field initialization strategy based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP-4DVar) is proposed to alleviate the well-known initial shock occurring in the early years of decadal predictions. It generates consistent initial conditions, which best fit the monthly mean oceanic analysis data along the coupled model trajectory in 1 month windows. Three indices to measure the initial shock intensity are also proposed. Results indicate that this method does reduce the initial shock in decadal predictions by Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point version 2 (FGOALS-g2) compared with the three-dimensional variational data assimilation-based nudging full-field initialization for the same model and is comparable to or even better than the different initialization strategies for other fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Better hindcasts of global mean surface air temperature anomalies can be obtained than in other FGOALS-g2 experiments. Due to the good model response to external forcing and the reduction of initial shock, higher decadal prediction skill is achieved than in other CMIP5 models.

  5. Filtered selection coupled with support vector machines generate a functionally relevant prediction model for colorectal cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabere MN

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Musa Nur Gabere,1 Mohamed Aly Hussein,1 Mohammad Azhar Aziz2 1Department of Bioinformatics, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center/King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; 2Colorectal Cancer Research Program, Department of Medical Genomics, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Purpose: There has been considerable interest in using whole-genome expression profiles for the classification of colorectal cancer (CRC. The selection of important features is a crucial step before training a classifier.Methods: In this study, we built a model that uses support vector machine (SVM to classify cancer and normal samples using Affymetrix exon microarray data obtained from 90 samples of 48 patients diagnosed with CRC. From the 22,011 genes, we selected the 20, 30, 50, 100, 200, 300, and 500 genes most relevant to CRC using the minimum-redundancy–maximum-relevance (mRMR technique. With these gene sets, an SVM model was designed using four different kernel types (linear, polynomial, radial basis function [RBF], and sigmoid.Results: The best model, which used 30 genes and RBF kernel, outperformed other combinations; it had an accuracy of 84% for both ten fold and leave-one-out cross validations in discriminating the cancer samples from the normal samples. With this 30 genes set from mRMR, six classifiers were trained using random forest (RF, Bayes net (BN, multilayer perceptron (MLP, naïve Bayes (NB, reduced error pruning tree (REPT, and SVM. Two hybrids, mRMR + SVM and mRMR + BN, were the best models when tested on other datasets, and they achieved a prediction accuracy of 95.27% and 91.99%, respectively, compared to other mRMR hybrid models (mRMR + RF, mRMR + NB, mRMR + REPT, and mRMR + MLP. Ingenuity pathway analysis was used to analyze the functions of the 30 genes selected for this model and their potential association with CRC: CDH3, CEACAM7, CLDN1, IL8, IL6R, MMP1

  6. Indian Summer Monsoon Sub-seasonal Low-Level Circulation Predictability and its Association with Rainfall in a Coupled Model

    KAUST Repository

    Sagalgile, Archana P.

    2017-10-26

    This study investigates predictability of the sub-seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and its relation with rainfall variations in the coupled model National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Hindcasts based on CFSv2 for the period of 1982–2009 are used for detailed analysis. Though the model is capable of predicting the seasonal ISM rainfall at long lead months, the predication skill of the model for sub-seasonal rainfall in general is poor for short and long lead except for September. Rainfall over the ISM region/Indian Subcontinent is highly correlated with the low-level jet (LLJ) or Somali jet both in the observations and the model. The model displays improved skill in predicting LLJ as compared to precipitation in seasonal mean and September, whereas the model skill is poor for June and August. Detailed analysis reveals that the model LLJ variations throughout the season are overdependent on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) unlike in the observations. This is mainly responsible for the model’s low skill in predicting LLJ especially in July and August, which is the primary cause for the poor rainfall skill. Though LLJ is weak in September, the model skill is reasonably good because of its ENSO dependency both in model and the observations and which is contributed to the seasonal mean skill. Thus, to improve the skill of seasonal mean monsoon forecast, it is essential to improve the skill of individual months/sub-seasonal circulation and rainfall skill.

  7. A fast linear predictive adaptive model of packed bed coupled with UASB reactor treating onion waste to produce biofuel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milquez-Sanabria, Harvey; Blanco-Cocom, Luis; Alzate-Gaviria, Liliana

    2016-10-03

    Agro-industrial wastes are an energy source for different industries. However, its application has not reached small industries. Previous and current research activities performed on the acidogenic phase of two-phase anaerobic digestion processes deal particularly with process optimization of the acid-phase reactors operating with a wide variety of substrates, both soluble and complex in nature. Mathematical models for anaerobic digestion have been developed to understand and improve the efficient operation of the process. At present, lineal models with the advantages of requiring less data, predicting future behavior and updating when a new set of data becomes available have been developed. The aim of this research was to contribute to the reduction of organic solid waste, generate biogas and develop a simple but accurate mathematical model to predict the behavior of the UASB reactor. The system was maintained separate for 14 days during which hydrolytic and acetogenic bacteria broke down onion waste, produced and accumulated volatile fatty acids. On this day, two reactors were coupled and the system continued for 16 days more. The biogas and methane yields and volatile solid reduction were 0.6 ± 0.05 m 3 (kg VS removed ) -1 , 0.43 ± 0.06 m 3 (kg VS removed ) -1 and 83.5 ± 9.8 %, respectively. The model application showed a good prediction of all process parameters defined; maximum error between experimental and predicted value was 1.84 % for alkalinity profile. A linear predictive adaptive model for anaerobic digestion of onion waste in a two-stage process was determined under batch-fed condition. Organic load rate (OLR) was maintained constant for the entire operation, modifying effluent hydrolysis reactor feed to UASB reactor. This condition avoids intoxication of UASB reactor and also limits external buffer addition.

  8. Indian Summer Monsoon Sub-seasonal Low-Level Circulation Predictability and its Association with Rainfall in a Coupled Model

    KAUST Repository

    Sagalgile, Archana P.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Srinivas, G.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Attada, Raju; Singh, Prem

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates predictability of the sub-seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and its relation with rainfall variations in the coupled model National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Hindcasts based on CFSv2 for the period of 1982–2009 are used for detailed analysis. Though the model is capable of predicting the seasonal ISM rainfall at long lead months, the predication skill of the model for sub-seasonal rainfall in general is poor for short and long lead except for September. Rainfall over the ISM region/Indian Subcontinent is highly correlated with the low-level jet (LLJ) or Somali jet both in the observations and the model. The model displays improved skill in predicting LLJ as compared to precipitation in seasonal mean and September, whereas the model skill is poor for June and August. Detailed analysis reveals that the model LLJ variations throughout the season are overdependent on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) unlike in the observations. This is mainly responsible for the model’s low skill in predicting LLJ especially in July and August, which is the primary cause for the poor rainfall skill. Though LLJ is weak in September, the model skill is reasonably good because of its ENSO dependency both in model and the observations and which is contributed to the seasonal mean skill. Thus, to improve the skill of seasonal mean monsoon forecast, it is essential to improve the skill of individual months/sub-seasonal circulation and rainfall skill.

  9. Hybrid method to predict the resonant frequencies and to characterise dual band proximity coupled microstrip antennas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varma, Ruchi; Ghosh, Jayanta

    2018-06-01

    A new hybrid technique, which is a combination of neural network (NN) and support vector machine, is proposed for designing of different slotted dual band proximity coupled microstrip antennas. Slots on the patch are employed to produce the second resonance along with size reduction. The proposed hybrid model provides flexibility to design the dual band antennas in the frequency range from 1 to 6 GHz. This includes DCS (1.71-1.88 GHz), PCS (1.88-1.99 GHz), UMTS (1.92-2.17 GHz), LTE2300 (2.3-2.4 GHz), Bluetooth (2.4-2.485 GHz), WiMAX (3.3-3.7 GHz), and WLAN (5.15-5.35 GHz, 5.725-5.825 GHz) bands applications. Also, the comparative study of this proposed technique is done with the existing methods like knowledge based NN and support vector machine. The proposed method is found to be more accurate in terms of % error and root mean square % error and the results are in good accord with the measured values.

  10. Phenomena-based Uncertainty Quantification in Predictive Coupled- Physics Reactor Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adams, Marvin [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2017-06-12

    This project has sought to develop methodologies, tailored to phenomena that govern nuclearreactor behavior, to produce predictions (including uncertainties) for quantities of interest (QOIs) in the simulation of steady-state and transient reactor behavior. Examples of such predictions include, for each QOI, an expected value as well as a distribution around this value and an assessment of how much of the distribution stems from each major source of uncertainty. The project has sought to test its methodologies by comparing against measured experimental outcomes. The main experimental platform has been a 1-MW TRIGA reactor. This is a flexible platform for a wide range of experiments, including steady state with and without temperature feedback, slow transients with and without feedback, and rapid transients with strong feedback. The original plan was for the primary experimental data to come from in-core neutron detectors. We made considerable progress toward this goal but did not get as far along as we had planned. We have designed, developed, installed, and tested vertical guide tubes, each able to accept a detector or stack of detectors that can be moved axially inside the tube, and we have tested several new detector designs. One of these shows considerable promise.

  11. Phenomena-based Uncertainty Quantification in Predictive Coupled- Physics Reactor Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adams, Marvin

    2017-01-01

    This project has sought to develop methodologies, tailored to phenomena that govern nuclearreactor behavior, to produce predictions (including uncertainties) for quantities of interest (QOIs) in the simulation of steady-state and transient reactor behavior. Examples of such predictions include, for each QOI, an expected value as well as a distribution around this value and an assessment of how much of the distribution stems from each major source of uncertainty. The project has sought to test its methodologies by comparing against measured experimental outcomes. The main experimental platform has been a 1-MW TRIGA reactor. This is a flexible platform for a wide range of experiments, including steady state with and without temperature feedback, slow transients with and without feedback, and rapid transients with strong feedback. The original plan was for the primary experimental data to come from in-core neutron detectors. We made considerable progress toward this goal but did not get as far along as we had planned. We have designed, developed, installed, and tested vertical guide tubes, each able to accept a detector or stack of detectors that can be moved axially inside the tube, and we have tested several new detector designs. One of these shows considerable promise.

  12. Improved cyberinfrastructure for integrated hydrometeorological predictions within the fully-coupled WRF-Hydro modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    gochis, David; hooper, Rick; parodi, Antonio; Jha, Shantenu; Yu, Wei; Zaslavsky, Ilya; Ganapati, Dinesh

    2014-05-01

    The community WRF-Hydro system is currently being used in a variety of flood prediction and regional hydroclimate impacts assessment applications around the world. Despite its increasingly wide use certain cyberinfrastructure bottlenecks exist in the setup, execution and post-processing of WRF-Hydro model runs. These bottlenecks result in wasted time, labor, data transfer bandwidth and computational resource use. Appropriate development and use of cyberinfrastructure to setup and manage WRF-Hydro modeling applications will streamline the entire workflow of hydrologic model predictions. This talk will present recent advances in the development and use of new open-source cyberinfrastructure tools for the WRF-Hydro architecture. These tools include new web-accessible pre-processing applications, supercomputer job management applications and automated verification and visualization applications. The tools will be described successively and then demonstrated in a set of flash flood use cases for recent destructive flood events in the U.S. and in Europe. Throughout, an emphasis on the implementation and use of community data standards for data exchange is made.

  13. Predicting Formation Damage in Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage Systems Utilizing a Coupled Hydraulic-Thermal-Chemical Reservoir Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Daniel; Regenspurg, Simona; Milsch, Harald; Blöcher, Guido; Kranz, Stefan; Saadat, Ali

    2014-05-01

    In aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) systems, large amounts of energy can be stored by injecting hot water into deep or intermediate aquifers. In a seasonal production-injection cycle, water is circulated through a system comprising the porous aquifer, a production well, a heat exchanger and an injection well. This process involves large temperature and pressure differences, which shift chemical equilibria and introduce or amplify mechanical processes. Rock-fluid interaction such as dissolution and precipitation or migration and deposition of fine particles will affect the hydraulic properties of the porous medium and may lead to irreversible formation damage. In consequence, these processes determine the long-term performance of the ATES system and need to be predicted to ensure the reliability of the system. However, high temperature and pressure gradients and dynamic feedback cycles pose challenges on predicting the influence of the relevant processes. Within this study, a reservoir model comprising a coupled hydraulic-thermal-chemical simulation was developed based on an ATES demonstration project located in the city of Berlin, Germany. The structural model was created with Petrel, based on data available from seismic cross-sections and wellbores. The reservoir simulation was realized by combining the capabilities of multiple simulation tools. For the reactive transport model, COMSOL Multiphysics (hydraulic-thermal) and PHREEQC (chemical) were combined using the novel interface COMSOL_PHREEQC, developed by Wissmeier & Barry (2011). It provides a MATLAB-based coupling interface between both programs. Compared to using COMSOL's built-in reactive transport simulator, PHREEQC additionally calculates adsorption and reaction kinetics and allows the selection of different activity coefficient models in the database. The presented simulation tool will be able to predict the most important aspects of hydraulic, thermal and chemical transport processes relevant to

  14. Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm and cold season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

    2013-07-01

    Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. The first objective of this study is to investigate this hypothesis. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations, availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions, and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and should therefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments. Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and interflow are

  15. Seasonal prediction of the Leeuwin Current using the POAMA dynamical seasonal forecast model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hendon, Harry H.; Wang, Guomin [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, PO Box 1289, Melbourne (Australia)

    2010-06-15

    The potential for predicting interannual variations of the Leeuwin Current along the west coast of Australia is addressed. The Leeuwin Current flows poleward against the prevailing winds and transports warm-fresh tropical water southward along the coast, which has a great impact on local climate and ecosystems. Variations of the current are tightly tied to El Nino/La Nina (weak during El Nino and strong during La Nina). Skilful seasonal prediction of the Leeuwin Current to 9-month lead time is achieved by empirical downscaling of dynamical coupled model forecasts of El Nino and the associated upper ocean heat content anomalies off the north west coast of Australia from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) seasonal forecast system. Prediction of the Leeuwin Current is possible because the heat content fluctuations off the north west coast are the primary driver of interannual annual variations of the current and these heat content variations are tightly tied to the occurrence of El Nino/La Nina. POAMA can skilfully predict both the occurrence of El Nino/La Nina and the subsequent transmission of the heat content anomalies from the Pacific onto the north west coast. (orig.)

  16. Theta coupling between V4 and prefrontal cortex predicts visual short-term memory performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebe, Stefanie; Hoerzer, Gregor M; Logothetis, Nikos K; Rainer, Gregor

    2012-01-29

    Short-term memory requires communication between multiple brain regions that collectively mediate the encoding and maintenance of sensory information. It has been suggested that oscillatory synchronization underlies intercortical communication. Yet, whether and how distant cortical areas cooperate during visual memory remains elusive. We examined neural interactions between visual area V4 and the lateral prefrontal cortex using simultaneous local field potential (LFP) recordings and single-unit activity (SUA) in monkeys performing a visual short-term memory task. During the memory period, we observed enhanced between-area phase synchronization in theta frequencies (3-9 Hz) of LFPs together with elevated phase locking of SUA to theta oscillations across regions. In addition, we found that the strength of intercortical locking was predictive of the animals' behavioral performance. This suggests that theta-band synchronization coordinates action potential communication between V4 and prefrontal cortex that may contribute to the maintenance of visual short-term memories.

  17. Thermogravimetric analysis coupled with chemometrics as a powerful predictive tool for ß-thalassemia screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risoluti, Roberta; Materazzi, Stefano; Sorrentino, Francesco; Maffei, Laura; Caprari, Patrizia

    2016-10-01

    β-Thalassemia is a hemoglobin genetic disorder characterized by the absence or reduced β-globin chain synthesis, one of the constituents of the adult hemoglobin tetramer. In this study the possibility of using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) followed by chemometrics as a new approach for β-thalassemia detection is proposed. Blood samples from patients with β-thalassemia were analyzed by the TG7 thermobalance and the resulting curves were compared to those typical of healthy individuals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to evaluate the correlation between the hematological parameters and the thermogravimetric results. The thermogravimetric profiles of blood samples from β-thalassemia patients were clearly distinct from those of healthy individuals as result of the different quantities of water content and corpuscular fraction. The hematological overview showed significant decreases in the values of red blood cell indices and an increase in red cell distribution width value in thalassemia subjects when compared with those of healthy subjects. The implementation of a predictive model based on Partial Least Square Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) for β-thalassemia diagnosis, was performed and validated. This model permitted the discrimination of anemic patients and healthy individuals and was able to detect thalassemia in clinically heterogeneous patients as in the presence of δβ-thalassemia and β-thalassemia combined with Hb Lepore. TGA and Chemometrics are capable of predicting ß-thalassemia syndromes using only a few microliters of blood without any pretreatment and with an hour of analysis time. A fast, rapid and cost-effective diagnostic tool for the β-thalassemia screening is proposed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Climate variability and predictability associated with the Indo-Pacific Oceanic Channel Dynamics in the CCSM4 Coupled System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Xu, Peng; Xu, Tengfei

    2017-01-01

    An experiment using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the climate variabilities associated with the oceanic channel dynamics across the Indo-Pacific Oceans. The results of these analyses suggest that the model is able to reproduce the observed lag correlation between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and those in the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at a time lag of 1 year. This success may be largely attributed to the successful simulation of the interannual variations of the Indonesian Throughflow, which carries the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) into the western equatorial Pacific Ocean to produce subsurface temperature anomalies, which in turn propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to generate ENSO. This connection is termed the "oceanic channel dynamics" and is shown to be consistent with the observational analyses. However, the model simulates a weaker connection between the IOD and the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport than found in the observations. In addition, the model overestimates the westerly wind anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific in the year following the IOD, which forces unrealistic upwelling Rossby waves in the western equatorial Pacific and downwelling Kelvin waves in the east. This assessment suggests that the CCSM4 coupled climate system has underestimated the oceanic channel dynamics and overestimated the atmospheric bridge processes.

  19. A coupled hydraulic and structure-dynamic model for prediction of RCCA drop time under hypothetical FA deformation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Mingmin; Dressel, Bernd

    2009-01-01

    The ability of the RCCA (Rod Control Cluster Assemblies) in a pressurized water reactor (PWR) to be fully inserted into the core and to reach the dashpot within a required time limit is one of the important safety requirements for quick shutdown. This kind of quick shutdown in a PWR is initiated by allowing the control rod with the drive rod together to fall into the core by gravity. During normal operation, the RCCA drop time is mainly influenced by the weight of control assembly, hydraulic resistance in the CRDM (Control Rod Drive Mechanism), control rod guide assembly and guide thimbles and by the mechanical friction forces between the RCCA and its surroundings. In the case of an accident, e.g. earthquake, an additional influence of horizontal vibrations of the RCCA and its surroundings has to be considered [1]. A coupled hydraulic and structure-dynamic model is presented in this paper for prediction of RCCA drop time down to dashpot under hypothetical fuel assembly (FA) deformations. This coupled model was verified by RCCA static and dynamic drop tests with a deformed FA and by RCCA drop tests under operational conditions. (orig.)

  20. The application of a coupled artificial neural network and fault tree analysis model to predict coal and gas outbursts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruilin, Zhang [School of Safety Science and Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo, Henan Province, 454003, PR (China); Lowndes, Ian S. [Process and Environmental Research Division, Faculty of Engineering, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham, NG7 2RD (United Kingdom)

    2010-11-01

    This paper proposes the use of a coupled fault tree analysis (FTA) and artificial neural network (ANN) model to improve the prediction of the potential risk of coal and gas outburst events during the underground mining of thick and deep Chinese coal seams. The model developed has been used to investigate the gas emission characteristics and the geological conditions that exist within the Huaibei coal mining region, Anhui province, China. The coal seams in this region exhibit a high incidence of coal and gas outbursts. An analysis of the results obtained from an initial application of an FTA model, identified eight dominant model parameters related to the gas content or geological conditions of the coal seams, which characterize the potential risk of in situ coal and gas outbursts. The eight dominant model parameters identified by the FTA method were subsequently used as input variables to an ANN model. The results produced by the ANN model were used to develop a qualitative risk index to characterize the potential risk level of occurrence of coal and gas outburst events. Four different potential risk alarm levels were defined: SAFE, POTENTIAL, HIGH and STRONG. Solutions to the prediction model were obtained using a combination of quantitative and qualitative data including the gas content or gas pressure and the geological and geotechnical conditions of coal seams. The application of this combined solution method identified more explicit and accurate model relationships between the in situ geological conditions and the potential risk of coal and gas outbursts. An analysis of the model solutions concluded that the coupled FTA and ANN model may offer a reliable alternative method to forecast the potential risk of coal and gas outbursts. (author)

  1. Impact of lower stratospheric ozone on seasonal prediction systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelebogile Mathole

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available We conducted a comparison of trends in lower stratospheric temperatures and summer zonal wind fields based on 27 years of reanalysis data and output from hindcast simulations using a coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation model (OAGCM. Lower stratospheric ozone in the OAGCM was relaxed to the observed climatology and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations were neglected. In the reanalysis, lower stratospheric ozone fields were better represented than in the OAGCM. The spring lower stratospheric/ upper tropospheric cooling in the polar cap observed in the reanalysis, which is caused by a direct ozone depletion in the past two decades and is in agreement with previous studies, did not appear in the OAGCM. The corresponding summer tropospheric response also differed between data sets. In the reanalysis, a statistically significant poleward trend of the summer jet position was found, whereas no such trend was found in the OAGCM. Furthermore, the jet position in the reanalysis exhibited larger interannual variability than that in the OAGCM. We conclude that these differences are caused by the absence of long-term lower stratospheric ozone changes in the OAGCM. Improper representation or non-inclusion of such ozone variability in a prediction model could adversely affect the accuracy of the predictability of summer rainfall forecasts over South Africa.

  2. Airborne sound insulation evaluation and flanking path prediction of coupled room

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tassia, R. D.; Asmoro, W. A.; Arifianto, D.

    2016-11-01

    One of the parameters to review the acoustic comfort is based on the value of the insulation partition in the classroom. The insulation value can be expressed by the sound transmission loss which converted into a single value as weighted sound reduction index (Rw, DnTw) and also have an additional sound correction factor in low frequency (C, Ctr) .In this study, the measurements were performed in two positions at each point using BSWA microphone and dodecahedron speaker as the sound source. The results of field measurements indicate the acoustic insulation values (DnT w + C) is 19.6 dB. It is noted that the partition wall not according to the standard which the DnTw + C> 51 dB. Hence the partition wall need to be redesign to improve acoustic insulation in the classroom. The design used gypsum board, plasterboard, cement board, and PVC as the replacement material. Based on the results, all the material is simulated in accordance with established standards. Best insulation is cement board with the insulation value is 69dB, the thickness of 12.5 mm on each side and the absorber material is 50 mm. Many factors lead to increase the value of acoustic insulation, such as the thickness of the panel, the addition of absorber material, density, and Poisson's ratio of a material. The prediction of flanking path can be estimated from noise reduction values at each measurement point in the class room. Based on data obtained, there is no significant change in noise reduction from each point so that the pathway of flanking is not affect the sound transmission in the classroom.

  3. Toward a coupled Hazard-Vulnerability Tool for Flash Flood Impacts Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terti, Galateia; Ruin, Isabelle; Anquetin, Sandrine; Gourley, Jonathan J.

    2015-04-01

    Flash floods (FF) are high-impact, catastrophic events that result from the intersection of hydrometeorological extremes and society at small space-time scales, generally on the order of minutes to hours. Because FF events are generally localized in space and time, they are very difficult to forecast with precision and can subsequently leave people uninformed and subject to surprise in the midst of their daily activities (e.g., commuting to work). In Europe, FFs are the main source of natural hazard fatalities, although they affect smaller areas than riverine flooding. In the US, also, flash flooding is the leading cause of weather-related deaths most years, with some 200 annual fatalities. There were 954 fatalities and approximately 31 billion U.S. dollars of property damage due to floods and flash floods from 1995 to 2012 in the US. For forecasters and emergency managers the prediction of and subsequent response to impacts due to such a sudden onset and localized event remains a challenge. This research is motivated by the hypothesis that the intersection of the spatio-temporal context of the hazard with the distribution of people and their characteristics across space and time reveals different paths of vulnerability. We argue that vulnerability and the dominant impact type varies dynamically throughout the day and week according to the location under concern. Thus, indices are appropriate to develop and provide, for example, vehicle-related impacts on active population being focused on the road network during morning or evening rush hours. This study describes the methodological developments of our approach and applies our hypothesis to the case of the June 14th, 2010 flash flood event in the Oklahoma City area (Oklahoma, US). Social (i.e. population socio-economic profile), exposure (i.e. population distribution, land use), and physical (i.e. built and natural environment) data are used to compose different vulnerability products based on the forecast location

  4. Ductile Tearing of Thin Aluminum Plates Under Blast Loading. Predictions with Fully Coupled Models and Biaxial Material Response Characterization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corona, Edmundo [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gullerud, Arne S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Haulenbeek, Kimberly K. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Reu, Phillip L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-06-01

    The work presented in this report concerns the response and failure of thin 2024- T3 aluminum alloy circular plates to a blast load produced by the detonation of a nearby spherical charge. The plates were fully clamped around the circumference and the explosive charge was located centrally with respect to the plate. The principal objective was to conduct a numerical model validation study by comparing the results of predictions to experimental measurements of plate deformation and failure for charges with masses in the vicinity of the threshold between no tearing and tearing of the plates. Stereo digital image correlation data was acquired for all tests to measure the deflection and strains in the plates. The size of the virtual strain gage in the measurements, however, was relatively large, so the strain measurements have to be interpreted accordingly as lower bounds of the actual strains in the plate and of the severity of the strain gradients. A fully coupled interaction model between the blast and the deflection of the structure was considered. The results of the validation exercise indicated that the model predicted the deflection of the plates reasonably accurately as well as the distribution of strain on the plate. The estimation of the threshold charge based on a critical value of equivalent plastic strain measured in a bulge test, however, was not accurate. This in spite of efforts to determine the failure strain of the aluminum sheet under biaxial stress conditions. Further work is needed to be able to predict plate tearing with some degree of confidence. Given the current technology, at least one test under the actual blast conditions where the plate tears is needed to calibrate the value of equivalent plastic strain when failure occurs in the numerical model. Once that has been determined, the question of the explosive mass value at the threshold could be addressed with more confidence.

  5. Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardilouze, Constantin; Batté, L.; Bunzel, F.; Decremer, D.; Déqué, M.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Douville, H.; Fereday, D.; Guemas, V.; MacLachlan, C.; Müller, W.; Prodhomme, C.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface initial conditions have been recognized as a potential source of predictability in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, at least for near-surface air temperature prediction over the mid-latitude continents. Yet, few studies have systematically explored such an influence over a sufficient hindcast period and in a multi-model framework to produce a robust quantitative assessment. Here, a dedicated set of twin experiments has been carried out with boreal summer retrospective forecasts over the 1992-2010 period performed by five different global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The impact of a realistic versus climatological soil moisture initialization is assessed in two regions with high potential previously identified as hotspots of land-atmosphere coupling, namely the North American Great Plains and South-Eastern Europe. Over the latter region, temperature predictions show a significant improvement, especially over the Balkans. Forecast systems better simulate the warmest summers if they follow pronounced dry initial anomalies. It is hypothesized that models manage to capture a positive feedback between high temperature and low soil moisture content prone to dominate over other processes during the warmest summers in this region. Over the Great Plains, however, improving the soil moisture initialization does not lead to any robust gain of forecast quality for near-surface temperature. It is suggested that models biases prevent the forecast systems from making the most of the improved initial conditions.

  6. Prediction of the transition energies of atomic No and Lr by the intermediate Hamiltonian coupled cluster method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borschevsky, A.; Eliav, E.; Kaldor, U.; Vilkas, M.J.; Ishikawa, Y.

    2007-01-01

    Complete text of publication follows: Measurements of the spectroscopic properties of the superheavy elements present a serious challenge to the experimentalist. Their short lifetimes and the low quantities of their production necessitate reliable prediction of transition energies to avoid the need for broad wavelength scans and to assist in identifying the lines. Thus, reliable high-accuracy calculations are necessary prior and parallel to experimental research. Nobelium and Lawrencium are at present the two most likely candidates for spectroscopic measurements, with the first experiments planned at GSI, Darmstadt. The intermediate Hamiltonian (IH) coupled cluster method is applied to the ionization potentials, electron affinities, and excitation energies of atomic nobelium and lawrencium. Large basis sets are used (37s31p26d21f16g11h6i). All levels of a particular atom are obtained simultaneously by diagonalizing the IH matrix. The matrix elements correspond to all excitations from correlated occupied orbitals to virtual orbitals in a large P space, and are 'dressed' by folding in excitations to higher virtual orbitals (Q space) at the coupled cluster singles-and-doubles level. Lamb-shift corrections are included. The same approach was applied to the lighter homologues of Lr and No, lutetium and ytterbium, for which many transition energies are experimentally known, in order to assess the accuracy of the calculation. The average absolute error of 20 excitation energies of Lu is 423 cm -1 , and the error limits for Lr are therefore put at 700 cm -1 . Predicted Lr excitations with large transition moments in the prime range for the planned experiment, 20,000-30,000 cm -1 , are 7p → 8s at 20,100 cm -1 and 7p →p 7d at 28,100 cm -1 . In case of Yb, the calculated ionization potential was within 20 cm -1 of the experiment, and the average error of the 20 lowest calculated excitations was about 300 cm -1 . Hence, the error limits of nobelium are set to 800 cm -1

  7. SST and OLR relationship during Indian summer monsoon: a coupled climate modelling perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Hazra, Anupam; Pokhrel, Samir; Chakrabarty, Chandrima; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Sreenivas, P.

    2018-04-01

    The study mainly investigates sea surface temperature (SST) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) relationships in coupled climate model. To support the analysis, high-level cloud and OLR relationship is also investigated. High-level cloud and OLR relationship depicts significant negative correlation over the entire monsoon regime. Coupled climate model is able to produce the same. SST and OLR relationship in observation also depicts significant negative relationship, in particular, over the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) region. Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is able to portray the negative relationship over EIO region; however, it is underestimated as compared to observation. Significant negative correlations elucidate that local SSTs regulate the convection and further it initiates Bjerknes feedback in the central Indian Ocean. It connotes that SST anomalies during monsoon period tend to be determined by oceanic forcing. The heat content of the coastal Bay of Bengal shows highest response to EIO SST by a lag of 1 month. It suggests that the coastal region of the Bay of Bengal is marked by coastally trapped Kelvin waves, which might have come from EIO at a time lag of 1 month. Sea surface height anomalies, depth at 20 °C isotherms and depth at 26 isotherms also supports the above hypothesis. Composite analysis based on EIO index and coupled climate model sensitivity experiments also suggest that the coastal Bay of Bengal region is marked by coastally trapped Kelvin waves, which are propagated from EIO at a time lag of 1 month. Thus, SST and OLR relationship pinpoints that the Bay of Bengal OLR (convection) is governed by local ocean-atmospheric coupling, which is influenced by the delayed response from EIO brought forward through oceanic planetary waves at a lag of 1 month. These results have utmost predictive value for seasonal and extended range forecasting. Thus, OLR and SST relationship can constitute a pivotal role in investigating the

  8. Woman and partner-perceived partner responses predict pain and sexual satisfaction in provoked vestibulodynia (PVD) couples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, Natalie O; Bergeron, Sophie; Leclerc, Bianca; Lambert, Bernard; Steben, Marc

    2010-11-01

    Provoked vestibulodynia (PVD) is a highly prevalent vulvovaginal pain condition that results in significant sexual dysfunction, psychological distress, and reduced quality of life. Although some intra-individual psychological factors have been associated with PVD, studies to date have neglected the interpersonal context of this condition. We examined whether partner responses to women's pain experience-from the perspective of both the woman and her partner-are associated with pain intensity, sexual function, and sexual satisfaction. One hundred ninety-one couples (M age for women=33.28, standard deviation [SD]=12.07, M age for men=35.79, SD=12.44) in which the woman suffered from PVD completed the spouse response scale of the Multidimensional Pain Inventory, assessing perceptions of partners' responses to the pain. Women with PVD also completed measures of pain, sexual function, sexual satisfaction, depression, and dyadic adjustment. Dependent measures were women's responses to: (i) a horizontal analog scale assessing the intensity of their pain during intercourse; (ii) the Female Sexual Function Index; and (iii) the Global Measure of Sexual Satisfaction Scale. Controlling for depression, higher solicitous partner responses were associated with higher levels of women's vulvovaginal pain intensity. This association was significant for partner-perceived responses (β=0.29, Psexual function and dyadic adjustment, woman-perceived greater solicitous partner responses (β=0.16, P=0.02) predicted greater sexual satisfaction. Partner-perceived responses did not predict women's sexual satisfaction. Partner responses were not associated with women's sexual function. Findings support the integration of dyadic processes in the conceptualization and treatment of PVD by suggesting that partner responses to pain affect pain intensity and sexual satisfaction in affected women. © 2010 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

  9. Coupled prediction of flash flood response and debris flow occurrence: Application on an alpine extreme flood event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Destro, Elisa; Amponsah, William; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Marchi, Lorenzo; Marra, Francesco; Zoccatelli, Davide; Borga, Marco

    2018-03-01

    The concurrence of flash floods and debris flows is of particular concern, because it may amplify the hazard corresponding to the individual generative processes. This paper presents a coupled modelling framework for the predictions of flash flood response and of the occurrence of debris flows initiated by channel bed mobilization. The framework combines a spatially distributed flash flood response model and a debris flow initiation model to define a threshold value for the peak flow which permits identification of channelized debris flow initiation. The threshold is defined over the channel network as a function of the upslope area and of the local channel bed slope, and it is based on assumptions concerning the properties of the channel bed material and of the morphology of the channel network. The model is validated using data from an extreme rainstorm that impacted the 140 km2 Vizze basin in the Eastern Italian Alps on August 4-5, 2012. The results show that the proposed methodology has improved skill in identifying the catchments where debris-flows are triggered, compared to the use of simpler thresholds based on rainfall properties.

  10. Model predictive control of a lean-burn gasoline engine coupled with a passive selective catalytic reduction system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Pingen [Tennessee Technological University (TTU); Lin, Qinghua [Tennessee Technological University (TTU); Prikhodko, Vitaly Y. [ORNL

    2017-10-01

    Lean-burn gasoline engines have demonstrated 10–20% engine efficiency gain over stoichiometric engines and are widely considered as a promising technology for meeting the 54.5 miles-per-gallon (mpg) Corporate Average Fuel Economy standard by 2025. Nevertheless, NOx emissions control for lean-burn gasoline for meeting the stringent EPA Tier 3 emission standards has been one of the main challenges towards the commercialization of highly-efficient lean-burn gasoline engines in the United States. Passive selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems, which consist of a three-way catalyst and SCR, have demonstrated great potentials of effectively reducing NOx emissions for lean gasoline engines but may cause significant fuel penalty due to ammonia generation via rich engine combustion. The purpose of this study is to develop a model-predictive control (MPC) scheme for a lean-burn gasoline engine coupled with a passive SCR system to minimize the fuel penalty associated with passive SCR operation while satisfying stringent NOx and NH3 emissions requirements. Simulation results demonstrate that the MPC-based control can reduce the fuel penalty by 47.7% in a simulated US06 cycle and 32.0% in a simulated UDDS cycle, compared to the baseline control, while achieving over 96% deNOx efficiency and less than 15 ppm tailpipe ammonia slip. The proposed MPC control can potentially enable high engine efficiency gain for highly-efficient lean-burn gasoline engine while meeting the stringent EPA Tier 3 emission standards.

  11. A coupling alternative to reactive transport simulations for long-term prediction of chemical reactions in heterogeneous CO2 storage systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. De Lucia

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Fully coupled, multi-phase reactive transport simulations of CO2 storage systems can be approximated by a simplified one-way coupling of hydrodynamics and reactive chemistry. The main characteristics of such systems, and hypotheses underlying the proposed alternative coupling, are (i that the presence of CO2 is the only driving force for chemical reactions and (ii that its migration in the reservoir is only marginally affected by immobilisation due to chemical reactions. In the simplified coupling, the exposure time to CO2 of each element of the hydrodynamic grid is estimated by non-reactive simulations and the reaction path of one single batch geochemical model is applied to each grid element during its exposure time. In heterogeneous settings, analytical scaling relationships provide the dependency of velocity and amount of reactions to porosity and gas saturation. The analysis of TOUGHREACT fully coupled reactive transport simulations of CO2 injection in saline aquifer, inspired to the Ketzin pilot site (Germany, both in homogeneous and heterogeneous settings, confirms that the reaction paths predicted by fully coupled simulations in every element of the grid show a high degree of self-similarity. A threshold value for the minimum concentration of dissolved CO2 considered chemically active is shown to mitigate the effects of the discrepancy between dissolved CO2 migration in non-reactive and fully coupled simulations. In real life, the optimal threshold value is unknown and has to be estimated, e.g. by means of 1-D or 2-D simulations, resulting in an uncertainty ultimately due to the process de-coupling. However, such uncertainty is more than acceptable given that the alternative coupling enables using grids of the order of millions of elements, profiting from much better description of heterogeneous reservoirs at a fraction of the calculation time of fully coupled models.

  12. Nonlinear dynamics and predictability in the atmospheric sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghil, M.; Kimoto, M.; Neelin, J. D.

    1991-01-01

    Systematic applications of nonlinear dynamics to studies of the atmosphere and climate are reviewed for the period 1987-1990. Problems discussed include paleoclimatic applications, low-frequency atmospheric variability, and interannual variability of the ocean-atmosphere system. Emphasis is placed on applications of the successive bifurcation approach and the ergodic theory of dynamical systems to understanding and prediction of intraseasonal, interannual, and Quaternary climate changes.

  13. GPCR-SSFE: A comprehensive database of G-protein-coupled receptor template predictions and homology models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kreuchwig Annika

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs transduce a wide variety of extracellular signals to within the cell and therefore have a key role in regulating cell activity and physiological function. GPCR malfunction is responsible for a wide range of diseases including cancer, diabetes and hyperthyroidism and a large proportion of drugs on the market target these receptors. The three dimensional structure of GPCRs is important for elucidating the molecular mechanisms underlying these diseases and for performing structure-based drug design. Although structural data are restricted to only a handful of GPCRs, homology models can be used as a proxy for those receptors not having crystal structures. However, many researchers working on GPCRs are not experienced homology modellers and are therefore unable to benefit from the information that can be gleaned from such three-dimensional models. Here, we present a comprehensive database called the GPCR-SSFE, which provides initial homology models of the transmembrane helices for a large variety of family A GPCRs. Description Extending on our previous theoretical work, we have developed an automated pipeline for GPCR homology modelling and applied it to a large set of family A GPCR sequences. Our pipeline is a fragment-based approach that exploits available family A crystal structures. The GPCR-SSFE database stores the template predictions, sequence alignments, identified sequence and structure motifs and homology models for 5025 family A GPCRs. Users are able to browse the GPCR dataset according to their pharmacological classification or search for results using a UniProt entry name. It is also possible for a user to submit a GPCR sequence that is not contained in the database for analysis and homology model building. The models can be viewed using a Jmol applet and are also available for download along with the alignments. Conclusions The data provided by GPCR-SSFE are useful for investigating

  14. GPCR-SSFE: a comprehensive database of G-protein-coupled receptor template predictions and homology models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worth, Catherine L; Kreuchwig, Annika; Kleinau, Gunnar; Krause, Gerd

    2011-05-23

    G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) transduce a wide variety of extracellular signals to within the cell and therefore have a key role in regulating cell activity and physiological function. GPCR malfunction is responsible for a wide range of diseases including cancer, diabetes and hyperthyroidism and a large proportion of drugs on the market target these receptors. The three dimensional structure of GPCRs is important for elucidating the molecular mechanisms underlying these diseases and for performing structure-based drug design. Although structural data are restricted to only a handful of GPCRs, homology models can be used as a proxy for those receptors not having crystal structures. However, many researchers working on GPCRs are not experienced homology modellers and are therefore unable to benefit from the information that can be gleaned from such three-dimensional models. Here, we present a comprehensive database called the GPCR-SSFE, which provides initial homology models of the transmembrane helices for a large variety of family A GPCRs. Extending on our previous theoretical work, we have developed an automated pipeline for GPCR homology modelling and applied it to a large set of family A GPCR sequences. Our pipeline is a fragment-based approach that exploits available family A crystal structures. The GPCR-SSFE database stores the template predictions, sequence alignments, identified sequence and structure motifs and homology models for 5025 family A GPCRs. Users are able to browse the GPCR dataset according to their pharmacological classification or search for results using a UniProt entry name. It is also possible for a user to submit a GPCR sequence that is not contained in the database for analysis and homology model building. The models can be viewed using a Jmol applet and are also available for download along with the alignments. The data provided by GPCR-SSFE are useful for investigating general and detailed sequence-structure-function relationships

  15. A novel fractal approach for predicting G-protein-coupled receptors and their subfamilies with support vector machines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Guoping; Li, Yong; Wang, Feichi; Wang, Siwen; Hu, Xuehai

    2015-01-01

    G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) are seven membrane-spanning proteins and regulate many important physiological processes, such as vision, neurotransmission, immune response and so on. GPCRs-related pathways are the targets of a large number of marketed drugs. Therefore, the design of a reliable computational model for predicting GPCRs from amino acid sequence has long been a significant biomedical problem. Chaos game representation (CGR) reveals the fractal patterns hidden in protein sequences, and then fractal dimension (FD) is an important feature of these highly irregular geometries with concise mathematical expression. Here, in order to extract important features from GPCR protein sequences, CGR algorithm, fractal dimension and amino acid composition (AAC) are employed to formulate the numerical features of protein samples. Four groups of features are considered, and each group is evaluated by support vector machine (SVM) and 10-fold cross-validation test. To test the performance of the present method, a new non-redundant dataset was built based on latest GPCRDB database. Comparing the results of numerical experiments, the group of combined features with AAC and FD gets the best result, the accuracy is 99.22% and Matthew's correlation coefficient (MCC) is 0.9845 for identifying GPCRs from non-GPCRs. Moreover, if it is classified as a GPCR, it will be further put into the second level, which will classify a GPCR into one of the five main subfamilies. At this level, the group of combined features with AAC and FD also gets best accuracy 85.73%. Finally, the proposed predictor is also compared with existing methods and shows better performances.

  16. Analysis of Sea Surface Fluxes at the Yellow Sea and East China Sea in Mid-Holocene Based on a Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model%基于耦合气候系统模式的中全新世黄、东海海表通量分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    薛玉虎; 毛新燕; 颜秀花; 赵传湖

    2014-01-01

    对中全新世(6,ka时期)海洋和气候的研究可加深人们对现阶段气候变化和海洋环境的认识,为预测未来海洋与气候环境变化提供一个重要参照.文章分析一个耦合气候系统模式 FGOALS-s2.0的模式结果,首先对其工业革命前(0,ka 时期)东亚地区夏季降水及冬、夏季10,m 风场的模拟结果进行评估,然后进一步对中全新世和工业革命前黄、东海海表大气强迫的季节变化进行了对比.结果显示:模式模拟出0,ka 时期东亚夏季降水从东南洋面至西北内陆减少的空间分布特点,冬、夏季10,m风场亦与观测大体一致;6,ka时期夏季,黄、东海风速较0,ka时期增大约0.8,m/s,16%左右;黄海风应力旋度值为正,东海为负,与0,ka 时期相比旋度绝对值均增大;同时,两海区接收的太阳短波辐射较0,ka 时期均增加,短波辐射的差异是中全新世夏季黄、东海海表的净热吸收增加的主要因子.6,ka 时期冬季,黄、东海北风加强,东海增加量在0.5~1.0,m/s,幅度约为10%,较黄海更为明显;两海区在冬季的净热释放也较0,ka 时期增大,东海释放更甚;冬季黄、东海风应力旋度较0,ka时期则无太大差别.研究表明,由于6,ka时期太阳辐射季节循环的改变,造成了黄、东海夏季风增强,海表净热通量也发生相应变化,该时期大气强迫场的变化可能会使黄、东海表层水温分布趋势发生较大改变,进而影响陆架环流格局.%It is significant to study the variations of ocean and climate between mid-Holocene(6,ka)and the present soas to provide reference for future climate prediction. Based on the results of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model FGOALS-s2.0, East Asian monsoon rainfall as well the surface wind in both summer and winter of the pre-Industrial(0,ka)are evaluated. And then atmospheric forcing on the Yellow Sea(YS)and the East China Sea(ECS)in winter

  17. Toward Process-resolving Synthesis and Prediction of Arctic Climate Change Using the Regional Arctic System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslowski, W.

    2017-12-01

    The Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) has been developed to better understand the operation of Arctic System at process scale and to improve prediction of its change at a spectrum of time scales. RASM is a pan-Arctic, fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere-land model with marine biogeochemistry extension to the ocean and sea ice models. The main goal of our research is to advance a system-level understanding of critical processes and feedbacks in the Arctic and their links with the Earth System. The secondary, an equally important objective, is to identify model needs for new or additional observations to better understand such processes and to help constrain models. Finally, RASM has been used to produce sea ice forecasts for September 2016 and 2017, in contribution to the Sea Ice Outlook of the Sea Ice Prediction Network. Future RASM forecasts, are likely to include increased resolution for model components and ecosystem predictions. Such research is in direct support of the US environmental assessment and prediction needs, including those of the U.S. Navy, Department of Defense, and the recent IARPC Arctic Research Plan 2017-2021. In addition to an overview of RASM technical details, selected model results are presented from a hierarchy of climate models together with available observations in the region to better understand potential oceanic contributions to polar amplification. RASM simulations are analyzed to evaluate model skill in representing seasonal climatology as well as interannual and multi-decadal climate variability and predictions. Selected physical processes and resulting feedbacks are discussed to emphasize the need for fully coupled climate model simulations, high model resolution and sensitivity of simulated sea ice states to scale dependent model parameterizations controlling ice dynamics, thermodynamics and coupling with the atmosphere and ocean.

  18. A coupled carbon and plant hydraulic model to predict ecosystem carbon and water flux responses to disturbance and environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, D. S.; Ewers, B. E.; Roberts, D. E.; McDowell, N. G.; Pendall, E.; Frank, J. M.; Reed, D. E.; Massman, W. J.; Mitra, B.

    2011-12-01

    Changing climate drivers including temperature, humidity, precipitation, and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations directly control land surface exchanges of CO2 and water. In a profound way these responses are modulated by disturbances that are driven by or exacerbated by climate change. Predicting these changes is challenging given that the feedbacks between environmental controls, disturbances, and fluxes are complex. Flux data in areas of bark beetle outbreaks in the western U.S.A. show differential declines in carbon and water flux in response to the occlusion of xylem by associated fungi. For example, bark beetle infestation at the GLEES AmeriFlux site manifested in a decline in summer water use efficiency to 60% in the year after peak infestation compared to previous years, and no recovery of carbon uptake following a period of high vapor pressure deficit. This points to complex feedbacks between disturbance and differential ecosystem reaction and relaxation responses. Theory based on plant hydraulics and extending to include links to carbon storage and exhaustion has potential for explaining these dynamics with simple, yet rigorous models. In this spirit we developed a coupled model that combines an existing model of canopy water and carbon flow, TREES [e.g., Loranty et al., 2010], with the Sperry et al., [1998] plant hydraulic model. The new model simultaneously solves carbon uptake and losses along with plant hydraulics, and allows for testing specific hypotheses on feedbacks between xylem dysfunction, stomatal and non-stomatal controls on photosynthesis and carbon allocation, and autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration. These are constrained through gas exchange, root vulnerability to cavitation, sap flux, and eddy covariance data in a novel model complexity-testing framework. Our analysis focuses on an ecosystem gradient spanning sagebrush to subalpine forests. Our modeling results support hypotheses on feedbacks between hydraulic dysfunction and 1) non

  19. System and methods for predicting transmembrane domains in membrane proteins and mining the genome for recognizing G-protein coupled receptors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trabanino, Rene J; Vaidehi, Nagarajan; Hall, Spencer E; Goddard, William A; Floriano, Wely

    2013-02-05

    The invention provides computer-implemented methods and apparatus implementing a hierarchical protocol using multiscale molecular dynamics and molecular modeling methods to predict the presence of transmembrane regions in proteins, such as G-Protein Coupled Receptors (GPCR), and protein structural models generated according to the protocol. The protocol features a coarse grain sampling method, such as hydrophobicity analysis, to provide a fast and accurate procedure for predicting transmembrane regions. Methods and apparatus of the invention are useful to screen protein or polynucleotide databases for encoded proteins with transmembrane regions, such as GPCRs.

  20. A global hybrid coupled model based on atmosphere-SST feedbacks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cimatoribus, Andrea A.; Drijfhout, Sybren S. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt (Netherlands); Dijkstra, Henk A. [Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2012-02-15

    A global hybrid coupled model is developed, with the aim of studying the effects of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The model includes a global ocean general circulation model and a statistical atmosphere model. The statistical atmosphere model is based on linear regressions of data from a fully coupled climate model on sea surface temperature both locally and hemispherically averaged, being the footprint of Atlantic meridional overturning variability. It provides dynamic boundary conditions to the ocean model for heat, freshwater and wind-stress. A basic but consistent representation of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks is captured in the hybrid coupled model and it is more than 10 times faster than the fully coupled climate model. The hybrid coupled model reaches a steady state with a climate close to the one of the fully coupled climate model, and the two models also have a similar response (collapse) of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to a freshwater hosing applied in the northern North Atlantic. (orig.)

  1. Tropical interannual variability in a global coupled GCM: Sensitivity to mean climate state

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, A.M. [Bureau of Meterology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria (Australia)

    1995-04-01

    A global coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice general circulation model is used to study interannual variability in the Tropics. Flux correction is used to control the mean climate of the coupled system, and in one configuration of the coupled model, interannual variability in the tropical Pacific is dominated by westward moving anomalies. Through a series of experiments in which the equatorial ocean wave speeds and ocean-atmosphere coupling strength are varied, it is demonstrated that these westward moving disturbances are probably some manifestation of what Neelin describes as an {open_quotes}SST mode.{close_quotes} By modifying the flux correction procedure, the mean climate of the coupled model can be changed. A fairly modest change in the mean climate is all that is required to excite eastward moving anomalies in place of the westward moving SST modes found previously. The apparent sensitivity of the nature of tropical interannual variability to the mean climate state in a coupled general circulation model such as that used here suggests that caution is advisable if we try to use such models to answer questions relating to changes in ENSO-like variability associated with global climate change. 41 refs., 23 figs., 1 tab.

  2. Extended-range prediction trials using the global cloud/cloud-system resolving model NICAM and its new ocean-coupled version NICOCO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyakawa, Tomoki

    2017-04-01

    The global cloud/cloud-system resolving model NICAM and its new fully-coupled version NICOCO is run on one of the worlds top-tier supercomputers, the K computer. NICOCO couples the full-3D ocean component COCO of the general circulation model MIROC using a general-purpose coupler Jcup. We carried out multiple MJO simulations using NICAM and the new ocean-coupled version NICOCO to examine their extended-range MJO prediction skills and the impact of ocean coupling. NICAM performs excellently in terms of MJO prediction, maintaining a valid skill up to 27 days after the model is initialized (Miyakawa et al 2014). As is the case in most global models, ocean coupling frees the model from being anchored by the observed SST and allows the model climate to drift away further from reality compared to the atmospheric version of the model. Thus, it is important to evaluate the model bias, and in an initial value problem such as the seasonal extended-range prediction, it is essential to be able to distinguish the actual signal from the early transition of the model from the observed state to its own climatology. Since NICAM is a highly resource-demanding model, evaluation and tuning of the model climatology (order of years) is challenging. Here we focus on the initial 100 days to estimate the early drift of the model, and subsequently evaluate MJO prediction skills of NICOCO. Results show that in the initial 100 days, NICOCO forms a La-Nina like SST bias compared to observation, with a warmer Maritime Continent warm pool and a cooler equatorial central Pacific. The enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent associated with this bias project on to the real-time multi-variate MJO indices (RMM, Wheeler and Hendon 2004), and contaminates the MJO skill score. However, the bias does not appear to demolish the MJO signal severely. The model maintains a valid MJO prediction skill up to nearly 4 weeks when evaluated after linearly removing the early drift component estimated from

  3. Coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave simulations of a storm event over the Gulf of Lion and Balearic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renault, Lionel; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Warner, John C.; Gomez, Marta; Vizoso, Guillermo; Tintore, Joaquin

    2012-01-01

    The coastal areas of the North-Western Mediterranean Sea are one of the most challenging places for ocean forecasting. This region is exposed to severe storms events that are of short duration. During these events, significant air-sea interactions, strong winds and large sea-state can have catastrophic consequences in the coastal areas. To investigate these air-sea interactions and the oceanic response to such events, we implemented the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System simulating a severe storm in the Mediterranean Sea that occurred in May 2010. During this event, wind speed reached up to 25 m.s-1 inducing significant sea surface cooling (up to 2°C) over the Gulf of Lion (GoL) and along the storm track, and generating surface waves with a significant height of 6 m. It is shown that the event, associated with a cyclogenesis between the Balearic Islands and the GoL, is relatively well reproduced by the coupled system. A surface heat budget analysis showed that ocean vertical mixing was a major contributor to the cooling tendency along the storm track and in the GoL where turbulent heat fluxes also played an important role. Sensitivity experiments on the ocean-atmosphere coupling suggested that the coupled system is sensitive to the momentum flux parameterization as well as air-sea and air-wave coupling. Comparisons with available atmospheric and oceanic observations showed that the use of the fully coupled system provides the most skillful simulation, illustrating the benefit of using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model for the assessment of these storm events.

  4. A Decision Support System Coupling Fuzzy Logic and Probabilistic Graphical Approaches for the Agri-Food Industry: Prediction of Grape Berry Maturity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrot, Nathalie; Baudrit, Cédric; Brousset, Jean Marie; Abbal, Philippe; Guillemin, Hervé; Perret, Bruno; Goulet, Etienne; Guerin, Laurence; Barbeau, Gérard; Picque, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Agri-food is one of the most important sectors of the industry and a major contributor to the global warming potential in Europe. Sustainability issues pose a huge challenge for this sector. In this context, a big issue is to be able to predict the multiscale dynamics of those systems using computing science. A robust predictive mathematical tool is implemented for this sector and applied to the wine industry being easily able to be generalized to other applications. Grape berry maturation relies on complex and coupled physicochemical and biochemical reactions which are climate dependent. Moreover one experiment represents one year and the climate variability could not be covered exclusively by the experiments. Consequently, harvest mostly relies on expert predictions. A big challenge for the wine industry is nevertheless to be able to anticipate the reactions for sustainability purposes. We propose to implement a decision support system so called FGRAPEDBN able to (1) capitalize the heterogeneous fragmented knowledge available including data and expertise and (2) predict the sugar (resp. the acidity) concentrations with a relevant RMSE of 7 g/l (resp. 0.44 g/l and 0.11 g/kg). FGRAPEDBN is based on a coupling between a probabilistic graphical approach and a fuzzy expert system.

  5. A Secondary Voltage Control Method for an AC/DC Coupled Transmission System Based on Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Fengda; Guo, Qinglai; Sun, Hongbin

    2015-01-01

    For an AC/DC coupled transmission system, the change of transmission power on the DC lines will significantly influence the AC systems’ voltage. This paper describes a method to coordinated control the reactive power of power plants and shunt capacitors at DC converter stations nearby, in order t...

  6. Towards quantifying the role of exact exchange in the prediction hydrogen bond spin-spin coupling constants involving fluorine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    San Fabián, J.; Omar, S.; García de la Vega, J. M., E-mail: garcia.delavega@uam.es [Departamento de Química Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid (Spain)

    2016-08-28

    The effect of a fraction of Hartree-Fock exchange on the calculated spin-spin coupling constants involving fluorine through a hydrogen bond is analyzed in detail. Coupling constants calculated using wavefunction methods are revisited in order to get high-level calculations using the same basis set. Accurate MCSCF results are obtained using an additive approach. These constants and their contributions are used as a reference for density functional calculations. Within the density functional theory, the Hartree-Fock exchange functional is split in short- and long-range using a modified version of the Coulomb-attenuating method with the SLYP functional as well as with the original B3LYP. Results support the difficulties for calculating hydrogen bond coupling constants using density functional methods when fluorine nuclei are involved. Coupling constants are very sensitive to the Hartree-Fock exchange and it seems that, contrary to other properties, it is important to include this exchange for short-range interactions. Best functionals are tested in two different groups of complexes: those related with anionic clusters of type [F(HF){sub n}]{sup −} and those formed by difluoroacetylene and either one or two hydrogen fluoride molecules.

  7. Temperature profile and other data collected using microstructure profiler (JMSP) from the HAKUHO-MARU as part of the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE), from 01 November 1992 - 30 November 1992 (NODC Accession 9600028)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile and other data were collected using microstructure profiler (JMSP) from the HAKUHO-MARU in the TOGA Area - Pacific Ocean (30 N to 30 S) from...

  8. Predictions for Boson-Jet Observables and Fragmentation Function Ratios from a Hybrid Strong/Weak Coupling Model for Jet Quenching

    CERN Document Server

    Casalderrey-Solana, Jorge; Milhano, José Guilherme; Pablos, Daniel; Rajagopal, Krishna

    2016-01-01

    We have previously introduced a hybrid strong/weak coupling model for jet quenching in heavy ion collisions that describes the production and fragmentation of jets at weak coupling, using PYTHIA, and describes the rate at which each parton in the jet shower loses energy as it propagates through the strongly coupled plasma, dE/dx, using an expression computed holographically at strong coupling. The model has a single free parameter that we fit to a single experimental measurement. We then confront our model with experimental data on many other jet observables, focusing here on boson-jet observables, finding that it provides a good description of present jet data. Next, we provide the predictions of our hybrid model for many measurements to come, including those for inclusive jet, dijet, photon-jet and Z-jet observables in heavy ion collisions with energy $\\sqrt{s}=5.02$ ATeV coming soon at the LHC. As the statistical uncertainties on near-future measurements of photon-jet observables are expected to be much sm...

  9. Predictive coupled-cluster isomer orderings for some Si{sub n}C{sub m} (m, n ≤ 12) clusters: A pragmatic comparison between DFT and complete basis limit coupled-cluster benchmarks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byrd, Jason N., E-mail: byrd.jason@ensco.com [Quantum Theory Project, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611 (United States); ENSCO, Inc., 4849 North Wickham Road, Melbourne, Florida 32940 (United States); Lutz, Jesse J., E-mail: jesse.lutz.ctr@afit.edu; Jin, Yifan; Ranasinghe, Duminda S.; Perera, Ajith; Bartlett, Rodney J., E-mail: rodbartl@ufl.edu [Quantum Theory Project, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611 (United States); Montgomery, John A. [Department of Physics, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut 06269 (United States); Duan, Xiaofeng F. [Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio 45433 (United States); Air Force Research Laboratory DoD Supercomputing Resource Center, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio 45433 (United States); Burggraf, Larry W. [Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio 45433 (United States); Sanders, Beverly A. [Quantum Theory Project, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611 (United States); Department of Computer and Information Science and Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611 (United States)

    2016-07-14

    The accurate determination of the preferred Si{sub 12}C{sub 12} isomer is important to guide experimental efforts directed towards synthesizing SiC nano-wires and related polymer structures which are anticipated to be highly efficient exciton materials for the opto-electronic devices. In order to definitively identify preferred isomeric structures for silicon carbon nano-clusters, highly accurate geometries, energies, and harmonic zero point energies have been computed using coupled-cluster theory with systematic extrapolation to the complete basis limit for set of silicon carbon clusters ranging in size from SiC{sub 3} to Si{sub 12}C{sub 12}. It is found that post-MBPT(2) correlation energy plays a significant role in obtaining converged relative isomer energies, suggesting that predictions using low rung density functional methods will not have adequate accuracy. Utilizing the best composite coupled-cluster energy that is still computationally feasible, entailing a 3-4 SCF and coupled-cluster theory with singles and doubles extrapolation with triple-ζ (T) correlation, the closo Si{sub 12}C{sub 12} isomer is identified to be the preferred isomer in the support of previous calculations [X. F. Duan and L. W. Burggraf, J. Chem. Phys. 142, 034303 (2015)]. Additionally we have investigated more pragmatic approaches to obtaining accurate silicon carbide isomer energies, including the use of frozen natural orbital coupled-cluster theory and several rungs of standard and double-hybrid density functional theory. Frozen natural orbitals as a way to compute post-MBPT(2) correlation energy are found to be an excellent balance between efficiency and accuracy.

  10. Predictive coupled-cluster isomer orderings for some SinCm (m, n ≤ 12) clusters: A pragmatic comparison between DFT and complete basis limit coupled-cluster benchmarks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrd, Jason N.; Lutz, Jesse J.; Jin, Yifan; Ranasinghe, Duminda S.; Perera, Ajith; Bartlett, Rodney J.; Montgomery, John A.; Duan, Xiaofeng F.; Burggraf, Larry W.; Sanders, Beverly A.

    2016-01-01

    The accurate determination of the preferred Si 12 C 12 isomer is important to guide experimental efforts directed towards synthesizing SiC nano-wires and related polymer structures which are anticipated to be highly efficient exciton materials for the opto-electronic devices. In order to definitively identify preferred isomeric structures for silicon carbon nano-clusters, highly accurate geometries, energies, and harmonic zero point energies have been computed using coupled-cluster theory with systematic extrapolation to the complete basis limit for set of silicon carbon clusters ranging in size from SiC 3 to Si 12 C 12 . It is found that post-MBPT(2) correlation energy plays a significant role in obtaining converged relative isomer energies, suggesting that predictions using low rung density functional methods will not have adequate accuracy. Utilizing the best composite coupled-cluster energy that is still computationally feasible, entailing a 3-4 SCF and coupled-cluster theory with singles and doubles extrapolation with triple-ζ (T) correlation, the closo Si 12 C 12 isomer is identified to be the preferred isomer in the support of previous calculations [X. F. Duan and L. W. Burggraf, J. Chem. Phys. 142, 034303 (2015)]. Additionally we have investigated more pragmatic approaches to obtaining accurate silicon carbide isomer energies, including the use of frozen natural orbital coupled-cluster theory and several rungs of standard and double-hybrid density functional theory. Frozen natural orbitals as a way to compute post-MBPT(2) correlation energy are found to be an excellent balance between efficiency and accuracy.

  11. Prediction of two-dimensional electron gas mediated magnetoelectric coupling at ferroelectric PbTiO3/SrTiO3 heterostructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Lan-ying; Lian, Chao; Meng, Sheng

    2017-05-01

    First-principles calculations predict the emergence of magnetoelectric coupling mediated by two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG) at the ferroelectric PbTiO3/SrTiO3 heterostructure. Free electrons endowed by naturally existing oxygen vacancies in SrTiO3 are driven to the heterostructure interface under the polarizing field of ferroelectric PbTiO3 to form a 2DEG. The electrons are captured by interfacial Ti atoms, which surprisingly exhibits ferromagnetism even at room temperature with a small critical density of ˜15.5 μ C /cm2 . The ferroelectricity-controlled ferromagnetism mediated by interfacial 2DEG shows strong magnetoelectric coupling strength, enabling convenient control of magnetism by electric field and vice versa. The PbTiO3/SrTiO3 heterostructure is cheap, easily grown, and controllable, promising future applications in low-cost spintronics and information storage at ambient condition.

  12. Predicting the oral pharmacokinetic profiles of multiple-unit (pellet) dosage forms using a modeling and simulation approach coupled with biorelevant dissolution testing: case example diclofenac sodium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kambayashi, Atsushi; Blume, Henning; Dressman, Jennifer B

    2014-07-01

    The objective of this research was to characterize the dissolution profile of a poorly soluble drug, diclofenac, from a commercially available multiple-unit enteric coated dosage form, Diclo-Puren® capsules, and to develop a predictive model for its oral pharmacokinetic profile. The paddle method was used to obtain the dissolution profiles of this dosage form in biorelevant media, with the exposure to simulated gastric conditions being varied in order to simulate the gastric emptying behavior of pellets. A modified Noyes-Whitney theory was subsequently fitted to the dissolution data. A physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for multiple-unit dosage forms was designed using STELLA® software and coupled with the biorelevant dissolution profiles in order to simulate the plasma concentration profiles of diclofenac from Diclo-Puren® capsule in both the fasted and fed state in humans. Gastric emptying kinetics relevant to multiple-units pellets were incorporated into the PBPK model by setting up a virtual patient population to account for physiological variations in emptying kinetics. Using in vitro biorelevant dissolution coupled with in silico PBPK modeling and simulation it was possible to predict the plasma profile of this multiple-unit formulation of diclofenac after oral administration in both the fasted and fed state. This approach might be useful to predict variability in the plasma profiles for other drugs housed in multiple-unit dosage forms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. A New Cellular Automaton Method Coupled with a Rate-dependent (CARD) Model for Predicting Dynamic Recrystallization Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azarbarmas, M.; Aghaie-Khafri, M.

    2018-03-01

    A comprehensive cellular automaton (CA) model should be coupled with a rate-dependent (RD) model for analyzing the RD deformation of alloys at high temperatures. In the present study, a new CA technique coupled with an RD model—namely, CARD—was developed. The proposed CARD model was used to simulate the dynamic recrystallization phenomenon during the hot deformation of the Inconel 718 superalloy. This model is capable of calculating the mean grain size and volume fraction of dynamic recrystallized grains, and estimating the phenomenological flow behavior of the material. In the presented model, an actual orientation definition comprising three Euler angles was used by implementing the electron backscatter diffraction data. For calculating the lattice rotation of grains, it was assumed that all slip systems of grains are active during the high-temperature deformation because of the intrinsic rate dependency of the procedure. Moreover, the morphological changes in grains were obtained using a topological module.

  14. Top and Higgs mass predictions in supersymmetric SU(5) model with big top quark Yukawa coupling constant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krasnikov, N.V.; Rodenberg, R.

    1993-01-01

    From the requirement of the absence of the Landau pole singularity for the effective top quark Yukawa coupling constant up to Planck scale in SU(5) supersymmetric model we find an upper bound m t ≤ 187 GeV for the top quark mass. For the SU(5) fixed point renormalization group solution for top quark Yukawa coupling constant which can be interpreted as the case of composite superhiggs we find that m t ≥ 140 GeV. Similar bound takes place in all models with big anti h t (m t ). For m t ≤ 160 GeV we find also that the Higgs boson is lighter than m Z and hence it can be discovered at LEP2

  15. Numerical model experiments on the variation of the ocean-atmosphere carbon cycle during the last 2100 years: The impact of variations of the thermahaline oceanic circulation; Numerische Modellexperimente zur Veraenderung des Ozean-Atmosphaere-Kohlenstoffkreislaufes waehrend der letzten 21000 Jahre: Der Einfluss von Variationen der thermohalinen Ozeanzirkulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schulz, M

    1998-03-01

    In order to quantify the variability of the ocean-atmosphere carbon-cycle on glacial-interglacial time scales numerical biogeochemical models are required. In this work, a modeling approach consisting of a coupling between a newly developed biogeochemical box model (16 oceanic boxes) and a three-dimensional (3D) ocean general circulation model (OGCM) was pursued. The simulation of biogeochemical processes by the box model is almost identical to state of the art 3D-models. The global OGCM (4 x 6 , 12 layers) is forced by temperature and salinity fields obtained from paleoceanographic time-slice reconstructions, and model-derived wind fields. This model setup offers several advantages: (1) The box model is driven by waterfluxes that are diagnosed from the OGCM-fields. This approach results in hydrodynamically consistent water-fluxes for the box model. (2) The OGCM results guide the selection of appropriate box-configurations for time-slices having water-mass distributions that differ from the present-day situation. (3) The high numerical efficiency of the biogeochemical model component allows for a sufficient number of sensitivity experiments. (4) Based on paleoceanographic information, the boundary conditions of the box model can be combined as a function of time in order to conduct time-dependent experiments with the box model. (orig.) [Deutsch] Die globale Quantifizierung von Veraenderungen des Ozean-Atmosphaere-Kohlenstoffkreislaufes auf glazial-interglazialen Zeitskalen erfordert den Einsatz numerischer biogeochemischer Modelle. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde hierzu ein Modellansatz gewaehlt, der aus der Kopplung eines neu entwickelten biogeochemischen Boxmodells (16 ozeanische Boxen) an ein dreidimensionales (3D) allgemeines Ozean-Zirkulationsmodell (OGCM) besteht. Die Simulation biogeochemischer Prozesse erfolgt im Boxmodell analog zu hochentwickelten 3D-Modellen. Das globale (4 x 6 , 12 Schichten) Ozeanmodell wird mit Temperatur- und Salzgehaltsfeldern, die

  16. Predictability of two types of El Niño and their climate impacts in boreal spring to summer in coupled models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ray Wai-Ki; Tam, Chi-Yung; Sohn, Soo-Jin; Ahn, Joong-Bae

    2017-12-01

    The predictability of the two El Niño types and their different impacts on the East Asian climate from boreal spring to summer have been studied, based on coupled general circulation models (CGCM) simulations from the APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble (MME) hindcast experiments. It was found that both the spatial pattern and temporal persistence of canonical (eastern Pacific type) El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) are much better simulated than those for El Niño Modoki (central Pacific type). In particular, most models tend to have El Niño Modoki events that decay too quickly, in comparison to those observed. The ability of these models in distinguishing between the two types of ENSO has also been assessed. Based on the MME average, the two ENSO types become less and less differentiated in the model environment as the forecast leadtime increases. Regarding the climate impact of ENSO, in spring during canonical El Niño, coupled models can reasonably capture the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western north Pacific (WNP)/Philippine Sea area, as well as rainfall over coastal East Asia. However, most models have difficulties in predicting the springtime dry signal over Indochina to South China Sea (SCS) when El Niño Modoki occurs. This is related to the location of the simulated anomalous anticyclone in this region, which is displaced eastward over SCS relative to the observed. In boreal summer, coupled models still exhibit some skills in predicting the East Asian rainfall during canonical El Nino, but not for El Niño Modoki. Overall, models' performance in spring to summer precipitation forecasts is dictated by their ability in capturing the low-level anticyclonic feature over the WNP/SCS area. The latter in turn is likely to be affected by the realism of the time mean monsoon circulation in models.

  17. Collaborative Project. Understanding the effects of tides and eddies on the ocean dynamics, sea ice cover and decadal/centennial climate prediction using the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hutchings, Jennifer [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Joseph, Renu [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

    2013-09-14

    The goal of this project is to develop an eddy resolving ocean model (POP) with tides coupled to a sea ice model (CICE) within the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to investigate the importance of ocean tides and mesoscale eddies in arctic climate simulations and quantify biases associated with these processes and how their relative contribution may improve decadal to centennial arctic climate predictions. Ocean, sea ice and coupled arctic climate response to these small scale processes will be evaluated with regard to their influence on mass, momentum and property exchange between oceans, shelf-basin, ice-ocean, and ocean-atmosphere. The project will facilitate the future routine inclusion of polar tides and eddies in Earth System Models when computing power allows. As such, the proposed research addresses the science in support of the BER’s Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Long Term Measure as it will improve the ocean and sea ice model components as well as the fully coupled RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) and it will make them more accurate and computationally efficient.

  18. Assessing the simulation and prediction of rainfall associated with the MJO in the POAMA seasonal forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marshall, Andrew G. [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, (Australia); Hudson, Debra; Wheeler, Matthew C.; Hendon, Harry H.; Alves, Oscar [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne (Australia)

    2011-12-15

    We assess the ability of the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) to simulate and predict weekly rainfall associated with the MJO using a 27-year hindcast dataset. After an initial 2-week atmospheric adjustment, the POAMA model is shown to simulate well, both in pattern and in intensity, the weekly-mean rainfall variation associated with the evolution of the MJO over the tropical Indo-Pacific. The simulation is most realistic in December-February (austral summer) and least realistic in March-May (austral autumn). Regionally, the most problematic area is the Maritime Continent, which is a common problem area in other models. Coupled with our previous demonstration of the ability of POAMA to predict the evolution of the large-scale structure of the MJO for up to about 3 weeks, this ability to simulate the regional rainfall evolution associated with the MJO translates to enhanced predictability of rainfall regionally throughout much of the tropical Indo-Pacific when the MJO is present in the initial conditions during October-March. We also demonstrate enhanced prediction skill of rainfall at up to 3 weeks lead time over the north-east Pacific and north Atlantic, which are areas of pronounced teleconnections excited by the MJO-modulation of tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall. Failure to simulate and predict the modulation of rainfall in such places as the Maritime Continent and tropical Australia by the MJO indicates, however, there is still much room for improvement of the prediction of the MJO and its teleconnections. (orig.)

  19. Predictions of hydraulic and transport behavior in a granite fracture via coupled mechano-chemo conceptual model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yasuhara, Hideaki; Kinoshita, Naoki; Lee, Dae Sung; Nakashima, Shinichiro; Kishida, Kiyoshi

    2009-01-01

    A conceptual model, accounting for pressure and free-face dissolutions, is presented to follow the evolution of fracture permeability in granite that was observed in a flow-through experiment. This model addresses the two dissolution processes at contacting asperities and free walls within fractures, and also describes the multi-mineral dissolution behavior, showing a capability that the evolution of fracture aperture (or related permeability) may be followed with time under an arbitrary temperature and pressure conditions. Predictions utilizing the model proposed in this study show a relatively good agreement with the experimental measurements, although the concentrations predicted underestimate the actual. (author)

  20. Coupled Heuristic Prediction of Long Lead-Time Accumulated Total Inflow of a Reservoir during Typhoons Using Deterministic Recurrent and Fuzzy Inference-Based Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-Lin Huang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This study applies Real-Time Recurrent Learning Neural Network (RTRLNN and Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS with novel heuristic techniques to develop an advanced prediction model of accumulated total inflow of a reservoir in order to solve the difficulties of future long lead-time highly varied uncertainty during typhoon attacks while using a real-time forecast. For promoting the temporal-spatial forecasted precision, the following original specialized heuristic inputs were coupled: observed-predicted inflow increase/decrease (OPIID rate, total precipitation, and duration from current time to the time of maximum precipitation and direct runoff ending (DRE. This study also investigated the temporal-spatial forecasted error feature to assess the feasibility of the developed models, and analyzed the output sensitivity of both single and combined heuristic inputs to determine whether the heuristic model is susceptible to the impact of future forecasted uncertainty/errors. Validation results showed that the long lead-time–predicted accuracy and stability of the RTRLNN-based accumulated total inflow model are better than that of the ANFIS-based model because of the real-time recurrent deterministic routing mechanism of RTRLNN. Simulations show that the RTRLNN-based model with coupled heuristic inputs (RTRLNN-CHI, average error percentage (AEP/average forecast lead-time (AFLT: 6.3%/49 h can achieve better prediction than the model with non-heuristic inputs (AEP of RTRLNN-NHI and ANFIS-NHI: 15.2%/31.8% because of the full consideration of real-time hydrological initial/boundary conditions. Besides, the RTRLNN-CHI model can promote the forecasted lead-time above 49 h with less than 10% of AEP which can overcome the previous forecasted limits of 6-h AFLT with above 20%–40% of AEP.

  1. A coupled melt-freeze temperature index approach in a one-layer model to predict bulk volumetric liquid water content dynamics in snow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avanzi, Francesco; Yamaguchi, Satoru; Hirashima, Hiroyuki; De Michele, Carlo

    2016-04-01

    Liquid water in snow rules runoff dynamics and wet snow avalanches release. Moreover, it affects snow viscosity and snow albedo. As a result, measuring and modeling liquid water dynamics in snow have important implications for many scientific applications. However, measurements are usually challenging, while modeling is difficult due to an overlap of mechanical, thermal and hydraulic processes. Here, we evaluate the use of a simple one-layer one-dimensional model to predict hourly time-series of bulk volumetric liquid water content in seasonal snow. The model considers both a simple temperature-index approach (melt only) and a coupled melt-freeze temperature-index approach that is able to reconstruct melt-freeze dynamics. Performance of this approach is evaluated at three sites in Japan. These sites (Nagaoka, Shinjo and Sapporo) present multi-year time-series of snow and meteorological data, vertical profiles of snow physical properties and snow melt lysimeters data. These data-sets are an interesting opportunity to test this application in different climatic conditions, as sites span a wide latitudinal range and are subjected to different snow conditions during the season. When melt-freeze dynamics are included in the model, results show that median absolute differences between observations and predictions of bulk volumetric liquid water content are consistently lower than 1 vol%. Moreover, the model is able to predict an observed dry condition of the snowpack in 80% of observed cases at a non-calibration site, where parameters from calibration sites are transferred. Overall, the analysis show that a coupled melt-freeze temperature-index approach may be a valid solution to predict average wetness conditions of a snow cover at local scale.

  2. Predictions of ion energy distributions and radical fluxes in radio frequency biased inductively coupled plasma etching reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoekstra, Robert J.; Kushner, Mark J.

    1996-03-01

    Inductively coupled plasma (ICP) reactors are being developed for low gas pressure (radio frequency (rf) bias is applied to the substrate. One of the goals of these systems is to independently control the magnitude of the ion flux by the inductively coupled power deposition, and the acceleration of ions into the substrate by the rf bias. In high plasma density reactors the width of the sheath above the wafer may be sufficiently thin that ions are able to traverse it in approximately 1 rf cycle, even at 13.56 MHz. As a consequence, the ion energy distribution (IED) may have a shape typically associated with lower frequency operation in conventional reactive ion etching tools. In this paper, we present results from a computer model for the IED incident on the wafer in ICP etching reactors. We find that in the parameter space of interest, the shape of the IED depends both on the amplitude of the rf bias and on the ICP power. The former quantity determines the average energy of the IED. The latter quantity controls the width of the sheath, the transit time of ions across the sheath and hence the width of the IED. In general, high ICP powers (thinner sheaths) produce wider IEDs.

  3. Predicting Non-African American Lesbian and Heterosexual Preadoptive Couples' Openness to Adopting an African American Child

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Abbie E.; Smith, JuliAnna Z.

    2009-01-01

    Despite increases in transracial adoption, African American children remain the least likely to be adopted. No research has examined the factors that predict prospective adopters' willingness to adopt an African American child. This study used multilevel modeling to examine predictors of willingness to adopt an African American child in a sample…

  4. Predicting the genetic consequences of future climate change: The power of coupling spatial demography, the coalescent, and historical landscape changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Jason L; Weber, Jennifer J; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego F; Hickerson, Michael J; Franks, Steven J; Carnaval, Ana C

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to forecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa. We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses to future environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change. We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide spatially explicit predictions of within-species genetic diversity using climatic, demographic, and genetic data. Our approach accounts for climatic, geographic, and biological complexity. This framework is promising for understanding evolutionary consequences of climate change, and guiding conservation planning. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

  5. A Coupled Atmospheric and Wave Modeling System for Storm Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Du, Jianting; Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Bolanos, R.

    2015-01-01

    to parametrize z0. The results are validated through QuikScat data and point measurements from an open ocean site Ekosk and a coastal, relatively shallow water site Horns Rev. It is found that the modeling system captures in general better strong wind and strong wave characteristics for open ocean condition than......This study aims at improving the simulation of wind and waves during storms in connection with wind turbine design and operations in coastal areas. For this particular purpose, we investigated the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System which couples the Weather...... resolution ranging from 25km to 2km. Meanwhile, the atmospheric forcing data of dierent spatial resolution, with one about 100km (FNL) and the other about 38km (CFSR) are both used. In addition, bathymatry data of diferent resolutions (1arc-minute and 30arc-seconds) are used. We used three approaches...

  6. Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W. Timothy

    1999-01-01

    The diagram, which attests the El Nino teleconnection observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) in 1997, is an example of the results of our research in air-sea interaction - the core component of our three-part contribution to the Climate Variability Program. We have established an interplay among scientific research, which turns spacebased data into knowledge, a push in instrument technology, which improves observations of climate variability, and an information system, which produces and disseminates new data to support our scientific research. Timothy Liu led the proposal for advanced technology, in response to the NASA Post-2002 Request for Information. The sensor was identified as a possible mission for continuous ocean surface wind measurement at higher spatial resolution, and with the unique capability to measure ocean surface salinity. He is participating in the Instrument Incubator Program to improve the antenna technology, and is initiating a study to integrate the concept on Japanese missions. He and his collaborators have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind/stress data from NSCAT and European missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from Quikscat, and precipitation and evaporation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. It will form the basis for a spacebased data analysis system which will include momentum, heat and water fluxes. The study on 1997 El Nino teleconnection illustrates our interdisciplinary and multisensor approach to study climate variability. The diagram shows that the collapse of trade wind and the westerly wind anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific led to the equatorial ocean warming. The equatorial wind anomalies are connected to the anomalous cyclonic wind pattern in the northeast Pacific. The anomalous warming along the west coast of the United States is the result of the movement of the pre-existing warm sea surface temperature anomalies with the cyclonic wind anomalies toward the coast. The results led to a new study which identifies decadal ocean variations in the Northeast Pacific. Three studies of oceanic responses to wind forcing caused by the seasonal change of monsoons, the passage of a typhoon, and the 1997 El Nino, were successfully conducted. Besides wind forcing, we continue to examine new techniques for estimating thermal and hydrologic fluxes, through the inverse ocean mixed-layer model, through divergence of atmospheric water transport, and by direct retrieval from radiances observed by microwave radiometers. Greenhouse warming has been linked to water vapor measured by two spaceborne sensors in two studies. In the first study, strong baroclinicity and deep convection were found to transport water vapor to the upper atmosphere and increase greenhouse trapping over the storm tracks of the North Pacific and Atlantic. In another study, the annual cycle of greenhouse warming were related to sea surface temperature (SST) and integrated water vapor, and the latitudinal dependence of the magnitudes and phases of the annual cycles were compared.

  7. Bioinformatic prediction of G protein-coupled receptor encoding sequences from the transcriptome of the foreleg, including the Haller's organ, of the cattle tick, Rhipicephalus australis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Munoz

    Full Text Available The cattle tick of Australia, Rhipicephalus australis, is a vector for microbial parasites that cause serious bovine diseases. The Haller's organ, located in the tick's forelegs, is crucial for host detection and mating. To facilitate the development of new technologies for better control of this agricultural pest, we aimed to sequence and annotate the transcriptome of the R. australis forelegs and associated tissues, including the Haller's organ. As G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs are an important family of eukaryotic proteins studied as pharmaceutical targets in humans, we prioritized the identification and classification of the GPCRs expressed in the foreleg tissues. The two forelegs from adult R. australis were excised, RNA extracted, and pyrosequenced with 454 technology. Reads were assembled into unigenes and annotated by sequence similarity. Python scripts were written to find open reading frames (ORFs from each unigene. These ORFs were analyzed by different GPCR prediction approaches based on sequence alignments, support vector machines, hidden Markov models, and principal component analysis. GPCRs consistently predicted by multiple methods were further studied by phylogenetic analysis and 3D homology modeling. From 4,782 assembled unigenes, 40,907 possible ORFs were predicted. Using Blastp, Pfam, GPCRpred, TMHMM, and PCA-GPCR, a basic set of 46 GPCR candidates were compiled and a phylogenetic tree was constructed. With further screening of tertiary structures predicted by RaptorX, 6 likely GPCRs emerged and the strongest candidate was classified by PCA-GPCR to be a GABAB receptor.

  8. Impulsive Stimulated Light Scattering Studies of the Liquid-Glass Transition: on the Experimental Verification of Mode-Coupling Theory Predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halalay, Ion C.

    A study of the structural glass transition trough impulsive stimulated light scattering experiments has been carried out in concentrated aqueous lithium chloride solutions, at temperatures ranging from ambient to cryogenic. A specially designed sample cell made it possible to cover the whole temperature interval from simple liquid, to viscoelastic supercooled liquid, to glass. It is shown that a phenomenological description of the results of these experiments in terms of a spectrum of relaxation times through the use of a Kohlrausch-Williams-Watts relaxation function is inadequate. Based on predictions of mode-coupling theory of the liquid-glass transition, an alternative approach to data interpretation is proposed. It is shown that for an aqueous lithium chloride solution, the prediction of simple scaling and identical scaling for mechanical and electrical susceptibilities seems to be valid. However, another prediction of theory is called into question: instead of a power-law behavior on temperature difference, it is found experimentally that the behavior of the susceptibility spectrum minimum is exponential. Similar disagreements are found for other two materials, triphenyl phosphite and polypropylene oxide. The causes for these discrepancies are discussed and it is concluded that additional experimentation is necessary to verify theoretical claims. Experiments are proposed which can test these predictions and serve as guide for the construction of theoretical models for the glass transition in real systems. (Copies available exclusively from MIT Libraries, Rm. 14-0551, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307. Ph. 617 -253-5668; Fax 617-253-1690.).

  9. Coupled, parabolic-marching method for the prediction of three-dimensional viscous incompressible turbomachinery flows. Doctoral thesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirtley, K.R.

    1988-10-01

    A new coupled parabolic-marching method was developed to solve the three-dimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes equation for turbulent turbomachinery flows. Earlier space-marching methods were analyzed to determine their global stability during multiple passes of the computational domain. The methods were found to be unconditionally unstable even when an extra equation for the pressure, namely the Poisson equation for the pressure, was used between passes of the domain. Relaxation of one constraint during the solution process was found to be necessary for the successful calculation of a complex flow.Thus, the method of pseudocompressibility was introduced into the partially parabolized Navier-Stokes equation to relax the mass flow constraint during a forward-marching integration as well as globally stable during successive passes of the domain. With consistent discretization, the new method was found to be convergent.

  10. New era of satellite chlorophyll fluorescence and soil moisture observations leads to advances in the predictive understanding of global terrestrial coupled carbon-water cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, B.; Xue, Y.; Fisher, J.; Guo, W.

    2017-12-01

    The terrestrial carbon cycle and water cycle are coupled through a multitude of connected processes among soil, roots, leaves, and the atmosphere. The strength and sensitivity of these couplings are not yet well known at the global scale, which contributes to uncertainty in predicting the terrestrial water and carbon budgets. For the first time, we now have synchronous, high fidelity, global-scale satellite observations of critical terrestrial carbon and water cycle components: sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and soil moisture. We used these observations within the framework of a well-established global terrestrial biosphere model (Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version 2.0, SSiB2) to investigate carbon-water coupling processes. We updated SSiB2 to include a mechanistic representation of SIF and tested the sensitivity of model parameters to improve the simulation of both SIF and soil moisture with the ultimate objective of improving the first-order terrestrial carbon component, gross primary production (GPP). Although several vegetation parameters, such as leaf area index (LAI) and green leaf fraction, improved the simulated SIF, and several soil parameters, such as hydraulic conductivity, improved simulated soil moisture, their effects were mainly limited to their respective cycles. One parameter emerged as the key coupler between the carbon and water cycles: the wilting point. Updates to the wilting point significantly improved the simulations for both soil moisture and SIF, as well as GPP. This study demonstrates the value of synchronous global measurements of the terrestrial carbon and water cycles in improving the understanding of coupled carbon-water cycles.

  11. Capitalizing on Everyday Positive Events Uniquely Predicts Daily Intimacy and Well-Being in Couples Coping with Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Amy K.; Laurenceau, Jean-Philippe; Siegel, Scott D.; Belcher, Amber J.

    2017-01-01

    Capitalization is the relational process of savoring positive life events by sharing them with responsive relationship partners. The purpose of the present study was to use dyadic intensive longitudinal methods to examine novel hypotheses regarding links between capitalization processes and daily intimacy and well-being in women with breast cancer and their intimate partners. While couples coping with cancer often experience an increase in negative daily life events, we hypothesized that it would be important for them also to share and capitalize on positive events in addition to sharing negative events. Female patients with early-stage breast cancer and their intimate partners (99 couples) completed electronic daily diaries for 7 to 10 consecutive days tapping everyday processes of sharing negative and positive events with each other. Dyadic multilevel process modeling revealed that on days when capitalization attempts (i.e., sharing the best event of the day) occurred, daily feelings of intimacy in the sharer were higher for both patients and partners. Moreover, greater perceived partner responsiveness (PPR) to capitalization attempts was associated with increases in the sharer’s daily feelings of intimacy and decreases in the sharer’s daily negative affect. When the patient’s partner was the sharer, PPR was also associated with increased daily positive affect. Importantly, all effects of capitalization were observed above and beyond the effects of event positivity and sharing negative events (i.e., social support attempts). Findings suggest that, even in the midst of significant life adversity, sharing daily good news with intimate partners enhances relationship well-being independently of sharing bad news. PMID:25528074

  12. An adaptive least-squares global sensitivity method and application to a plasma-coupled combustion prediction with parametric correlation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Kunkun; Massa, Luca; Wang, Jonathan; Freund, Jonathan B.

    2018-05-01

    We introduce an efficient non-intrusive surrogate-based methodology for global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification. Modified covariance-based sensitivity indices (mCov-SI) are defined for outputs that reflect correlated effects. The overall approach is applied to simulations of a complex plasma-coupled combustion system with disparate uncertain parameters in sub-models for chemical kinetics and a laser-induced breakdown ignition seed. The surrogate is based on an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) expansion, such as widely used in statistics, with orthogonal polynomials representing the ANOVA subspaces and a polynomial dimensional decomposition (PDD) representing its multi-dimensional components. The coefficients of the PDD expansion are obtained using a least-squares regression, which both avoids the direct computation of high-dimensional integrals and affords an attractive flexibility in choosing sampling points. This facilitates importance sampling using a Bayesian calibrated posterior distribution, which is fast and thus particularly advantageous in common practical cases, such as our large-scale demonstration, for which the asymptotic convergence properties of polynomial expansions cannot be realized due to computation expense. Effort, instead, is focused on efficient finite-resolution sampling. Standard covariance-based sensitivity indices (Cov-SI) are employed to account for correlation of the uncertain parameters. Magnitude of Cov-SI is unfortunately unbounded, which can produce extremely large indices that limit their utility. Alternatively, mCov-SI are then proposed in order to bound this magnitude ∈ [ 0 , 1 ]. The polynomial expansion is coupled with an adaptive ANOVA strategy to provide an accurate surrogate as the union of several low-dimensional spaces, avoiding the typical computational cost of a high-dimensional expansion. It is also adaptively simplified according to the relative contribution of the different polynomials to the total

  13. Capitalizing on everyday positive events uniquely predicts daily intimacy and well-being in couples coping with breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Amy K; Laurenceau, Jean-Philippe; Siegel, Scott D; Belcher, Amber J

    2015-02-01

    Capitalization is the relational process of savoring positive life events by sharing them with responsive relationship partners. The purpose of the present study was to use dyadic intensive longitudinal methods to examine novel hypotheses regarding links between capitalization processes and daily intimacy and well-being in women with breast cancer and their intimate partners. Although couples coping with cancer often experience an increase in negative daily life events, we hypothesized that it would be important for them to share and capitalize on positive events in addition to sharing negative events. Female patients with early stage breast cancer and their intimate partners (99 couples) completed electronic daily diaries for 7 to 10 consecutive days tapping everyday processes of sharing negative and positive events with each other. Dyadic multilevel process modeling revealed that on days when capitalization attempts (i.e., sharing the best event of the day) occurred, daily feelings of intimacy in the sharer were higher for both patients and partners. Moreover, greater perceived partner responsiveness to capitalization attempts was associated with increases in the sharer's daily feelings of intimacy and decreases in the sharer's daily negative affect. When the patient's partner was the sharer, perceived partner responsiveness also was associated with increased daily positive affect. More important, all effects of capitalization were observed above and beyond the effects of event positivity and sharing negative events (i.e., social support attempts). Findings suggest that, even in the midst of significant life adversity, sharing daily good news with intimate partners enhances relationship well-being independently of sharing bad news. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  14. Statistical modelling coupled with LC-MS analysis to predict human upper intestinal absorption of phytochemical mixtures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selby-Pham, Sophie N B; Howell, Kate S; Dunshea, Frank R; Ludbey, Joel; Lutz, Adrian; Bennett, Louise

    2018-04-15

    A diet rich in phytochemicals confers benefits for health by reducing the risk of chronic diseases via regulation of oxidative stress and inflammation (OSI). For optimal protective bio-efficacy, the time required for phytochemicals and their metabolites to reach maximal plasma concentrations (T max ) should be synchronised with the time of increased OSI. A statistical model has been reported to predict T max of individual phytochemicals based on molecular mass and lipophilicity. We report the application of the model for predicting the absorption profile of an uncharacterised phytochemical mixture, herein referred to as the 'functional fingerprint'. First, chemical profiles of phytochemical extracts were acquired using liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS), then the molecular features for respective components were used to predict their plasma absorption maximum, based on molecular mass and lipophilicity. This method of 'functional fingerprinting' of plant extracts represents a novel tool for understanding and optimising the health efficacy of plant extracts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Factors predictive of abnormal semen parameters in male partners of couples attending the infertility clinic of a tertiary hospital in south-western Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Olusola Aduloju

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Infertility is a common gynaecological problem and male factor contributes significantly in the aetiology of infertility. Semen analysis has remained a useful investigation in the search for male factor infertility. Aim: This study assessed the pattern of semen parameters and predictive factors associated with abnormal parameters in male partners of infertile couples attending a Nigerian tertiary hospital. Methods: A descriptive study of infertile couples presenting at the clinic between January 2012and December 2015 was done at Ekiti State University Teaching Hospital, Ado-Ekiti. Seminal fluid from the male partners were analysed in the laboratory using the WHO 2010 criteria for human semen characteristics. Data was analysed using SPSS 17 and logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictive factors associated with abnormal semen parameters. Results: A total of 443 men participated in the study and 38.2% had abnormal sperm parameters. Oligozoospermia (34.8% and asthenozoospermia (26.9% are leading single factor abnormality found, astheno-oligozoospermia occurred in 14.2% and oligo-astheno-teratozoospermia in 3.6% of cases. The prevalence of azoospermia was 3.4%. Smoking habit, past infection with mumps and previous groin surgery significantly predicted abnormal semen parameters with p values of 0.025, 0.040 and 0.017 respectively. Positive cultures were recorded in 36.2% of cases and staph aureus was the commonest organism. Conclusion: Male factor abnormalities remain significant contributors to infertility and men should be encouraged through advocacy to participate in investigation of infertility to reduce the level of stigmatization and ostracizing of women with infertility especially in sub-Saharan Africa.

  16. Factors predictive of abnormal semen parameters in male partners of couples attending the infertility clinic of a tertiary hospital in southwestern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Aduloju

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Infertility is a common gynaecological problem and male factor contributes significantly in the aetiology of infertility. Semen analysis has remained a useful investigation in the search for male factor infertility.Aim: This study assessed the pattern of semen parameters and predictive factors associated with abnormal parameters in male partners of infertile couples attending a Nigerian tertiary hospital.Methods: A descriptive study of infertile couples presenting at the clinic between January 2012and December 2015 was done at Ekiti State University Teaching Hospital, Ado-Ekiti.  Seminal fluid from the male partners were analysed in the laboratory using the WHO 2010 criteria for human semen characteristics. Data was analysed using SPSS 17 and logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictive factors associated with abnormal semen parameters.Results: A total of 443 men participated in the study and 38.2% had abnormal sperm parameters. Oligozoospermia (34.8% and asthenozoospermia (26.9% are leading single factor abnormality found, astheno-oligozoospermia occurred in 14.2% and oligo-astheno-teratozoospermia in 3.6% of cases. The prevalence of azoospermia was 3.4%. Smoking habit, past infection with mumps and previous groin surgery significantly predicted abnormal semen parameters with p values of 0.025, 0.040 and 0.017 respectively. Positive cultures were recorded in 36.2% of cases and staph aureus was the commonest organism.Conclusion: Male factor abnormalities remain significant contributors to infertility and men should be encouraged through advocacy to participate in investigation of infertility to reduce the level of stigmatization and ostracizing of women with infertility especially in sub-Saharan Africa.

  17. Coupling carbon allocation with leaf and root phenology predicts tree-grass partitioning along a savanna rainfall gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haverd, V.; Smith, B.; Raupach, M.; Briggs, P.; Nieradzik, L.; Beringer, J.; Hutley, L.; Trudinger, C. M.; Cleverly, J.

    2016-02-01

    The relative complexity of the mechanisms underlying savanna ecosystem dynamics, in comparison to other biomes such as temperate and tropical forests, challenges the representation of such dynamics in ecosystem and Earth system models. A realistic representation of processes governing carbon allocation and phenology for the two defining elements of savanna vegetation (namely trees and grasses) may be a key to understanding variations in tree-grass partitioning in time and space across the savanna biome worldwide. Here we present a new approach for modelling coupled phenology and carbon allocation, applied to competing tree and grass plant functional types. The approach accounts for a temporal shift between assimilation and growth, mediated by a labile carbohydrate store. This is combined with a method to maximize long-term net primary production (NPP) by optimally partitioning plant growth between fine roots and (leaves + stem). The computational efficiency of the analytic method used here allows it to be uniquely and readily applied at regional scale, as required, for example, within the framework of a global biogeochemical model.We demonstrate the approach by encoding it in a new simple carbon-water cycle model that we call HAVANA (Hydrology and Vegetation-dynamics Algorithm for Northern Australia), coupled to the existing POP (Population Orders Physiology) model for tree demography and disturbance-mediated heterogeneity. HAVANA-POP is calibrated using monthly remotely sensed fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) and eddy-covariance-based estimates of carbon and water fluxes at five tower sites along the North Australian Tropical Transect (NATT), which is characterized by large gradients in rainfall and wildfire disturbance. The calibrated model replicates observed gradients of fPAR, tree leaf area index, basal area, and foliage projective cover along the NATT. The model behaviour emerges from complex feedbacks between the plant

  18. A coupled diffusion-fluid pressure model to predict cell density distribution for cells encapsulated in a porous hydrogel scaffold under mechanical loading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Feihu; Vaughan, Ted J; Mc Garrigle, Myles J; McNamara, Laoise M

    2017-10-01

    Tissue formation within tissue engineering (TE) scaffolds is preceded by growth of the cells throughout the scaffold volume and attachment of cells to the scaffold substrate. It is known that mechanical stimulation, in the form of fluid perfusion or mechanical strain, enhances cell differentiation and overall tissue formation. However, due to the complex multi-physics environment of cells within TE scaffolds, cell transport under mechanical stimulation is not fully understood. Therefore, in this study, we have developed a coupled multiphysics model to predict cell density distribution in a TE scaffold. In this model, cell transport is modelled as a thermal conduction process, which is driven by the pore fluid pressure under applied loading. As a case study, the model is investigated to predict the cell density patterns of pre-osteoblasts MC3T3-e1 cells under a range of different loading regimes, to obtain an understanding of desirable mechanical stimulation that will enhance cell density distribution within TE scaffolds. The results of this study have demonstrated that fluid perfusion can result in a higher cell density in the scaffold region closed to the outlet, while cell density distribution under mechanical compression was similar with static condition. More importantly, the study provides a novel computational approach to predict cell distribution in TE scaffolds under mechanical loading. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. The influence of precipitation kinetics on trace element partitioning between solid and liquid solutions: A coupled fluid dynamics/thermodynamics framework to predict distribution coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavner, A.

    2017-12-01

    In a multicomponent multiphase geochemical system undergoing a chemical reaction such as precipitation and/or dissolution, the partitioning of species between phases is determined by a combination of thermodynamic properties and transport processes. The interpretation of the observed distribution of trace elements requires models integrating coupled chemistry and mechanical transport. Here, a framework is presented that predicts the kinetic effects on the distribution of species between two reacting phases. Based on a perturbation theory combining Navier-Stokes fluid flow and chemical reactivity, the framework predicts rate-dependent partition coefficients in a variety of different systems. We present the theoretical framework, with applications to two systems: 1. species- and isotope-dependent Soret diffusion of species in a multicomponent silicate melt subjected to a temperature gradient, and 2. Elemental partitioning and isotope fractionation during precipitation of a multicomponent solid from a multicomponent liquid phase. Predictions will be compared with results from experimental studies. The approach has applications for understanding chemical exchange in at boundary layers such as the Earth's surface magmatic systems and at the core/mantle boundary.

  20. Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm- and cold-season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

    2014-01-01

    Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm-season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold-season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. We further hypothesize that the transient mass fluxes associated with the temporal-spatial dynamics of interflow govern the timing of shallow landslide initiation, and subsequent debris flow mobilization. The first objective of this study is to investigate this relationship. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations; availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions; and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions

  1. Real-time dynamic control of the Three Gorges Reservoir by coupling numerical weather rainfall prediction and flood forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Y.; Chen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2013-01-01

    In reservoir operation improvement of the accuracy of forecast flood inflow and extension of forecast lead-time can effectively be achieved by using rainfall forecasts from numerical weather predictions with a hydrological catchment model. In this study, the Regional Spectrum Model (RSM), which...... is developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency, was used to forecast rainfall with 5 days lead-time in the upper region of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). A conceptual hydrological model, the Xinanjiang Model, has been set up to forecast the inflow flood of TGR by the Ministry of Water Resources Information...... season 2012 as example, real-time dynamic control of the FLWL was implemented by using the forecasted reservoir flood inflow as input. The forecasted inflow with 5 days lead-time rainfall forecast was evaluated by several performance indices, including the mean relative error of the volumetric reservoir...

  2. Coupled information diffusion--pest dynamics models predict delayed benefits of farmer cooperation in pest management programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebaudo, François; Dangles, Olivier

    2011-10-01

    Worldwide, the theory and practice of agricultural extension system have been dominated for almost half a century by Rogers' "diffusion of innovation theory". In particular, the success of integrated pest management (IPM) extension programs depends on the effectiveness of IPM information diffusion from trained farmers to other farmers, an important assumption which underpins funding from development organizations. Here we developed an innovative approach through an agent-based model (ABM) combining social (diffusion theory) and biological (pest population dynamics) models to study the role of cooperation among small-scale farmers to share IPM information for controlling an invasive pest. The model was implemented with field data, including learning processes and control efficiency, from large scale surveys in the Ecuadorian Andes. Our results predict that although cooperation had short-term costs for individual farmers, it paid in the long run as it decreased pest infestation at the community scale. However, the slow learning process placed restrictions on the knowledge that could be generated within farmer communities over time, giving rise to natural lags in IPM diffusion and applications. We further showed that if individuals learn from others about the benefits of early prevention of new pests, then educational effort may have a sustainable long-run impact. Consistent with models of information diffusion theory, our results demonstrate how an integrated approach combining ecological and social systems would help better predict the success of IPM programs. This approach has potential beyond pest management as it could be applied to any resource management program seeking to spread innovations across populations.

  3. Voltammetry coupled to mass spectrometry in the presence of isotope {sup 18}O labeled water for the prediction of oxidative transformation pathways of activated aromatic ethers: Acebutolol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bussy, Ugo; Tea, Illa [LUNAM Université de Nantes, CNRS, Chimie et Interdisciplinarité: Synthèse, Analyse et Modélisation (CEISAM), UMR 6230, 2 rue de la Houssinière, BP 92208, F-44322 Nantes cedex 3 (France); Ferchaud-Roucher, Véronique; Krempf, Michel [Université de Nantes, Plateforme Spectrométrie de Masse, CRNH, SFR Santé F. Bonamy, Institut du Thorax, UMR S1087, IRT-UN, BP 70721, 8 Quai Moncousu, 44007 Nantes cedex 1 (France); Silvestre, Virginie; Galland, Nicolas [LUNAM Université de Nantes, CNRS, Chimie et Interdisciplinarité: Synthèse, Analyse et Modélisation (CEISAM), UMR 6230, 2 rue de la Houssinière, BP 92208, F-44322 Nantes cedex 3 (France); Jacquemin, Denis [LUNAM Université de Nantes, CNRS, Chimie et Interdisciplinarité: Synthèse, Analyse et Modélisation (CEISAM), UMR 6230, 2 rue de la Houssinière, BP 92208, F-44322 Nantes cedex 3 (France); Institut Universitaire de France, 103, Boulevard Saint-Michel, 75005 Cedex 5 France (France); Andresen-Bergström, Moa; Jurva, Ulrik [CVGI iMed DMPK, AstraZeneca R and D Mölndal, Mölndal (Sweden); and others

    2013-01-31

    Highlights: ► Voltammetry coupled to mass spectrometry method as a useful tool for on-line predictions of electrochemical transformations. ► Evidence of the O-dealkoxylation reaction pathway of acebutolol in the presence of labeled water. ► New approach for on line EC-MS applications. -- Abstract: The coupling between an electrochemical cell (EC) and a mass spectrometer (MS) is a useful screening tool (EC-MS) to study the oxidative transformation pathways of various electroactive species. For that purpose, we showed that the EC-MS method, carried out in the presence and absence of isotope {sup 18}O labeled water leads not only to a fast identification of oxidation products but also leads to a fast elucidation of the mechanism pathway reaction. We examined herein the case of the electrochemical hydrolysis of activated aromatic ether. Acebutolol (β-blockers) was selected herein as model of activated aromatic ether, and its electrochemical oxidation was examined in both the presence and absence of isotope {sup 18}O labeled water. To elucidate electrochemical hydrolysis pathway reaction: O-dealkylation or O-dealkoxylation, our approach was used to prove its applicability. The electrochemical oxidation mechanism was then elucidated showing an O-dealkoxylation reaction. In addition, density functional theory (DFT) calculations fully support the experimental conclusions.

  4. New perspectives in the PAW/GIPAW approach: J(P-O-Si) coupling constants, antisymmetric parts of shift tensors and NQR predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonhomme, Christian; Gervais, Christel; Coelho, Cristina; Pourpoint, Frédérique; Azaïs, Thierry; Bonhomme-Coury, Laure; Babonneau, Florence; Jacob, Guy; Ferrari, Maude; Canet, Daniel; Yates, Jonathan R; Pickard, Chris J; Joyce, Siân A; Mauri, Francesco; Massiot, Dominique

    2010-12-01

    In 2001, Pickard and Mauri implemented the gauge including projected augmented wave (GIPAW) protocol for first-principles calculations of NMR parameters using periodic boundary conditions (chemical shift anisotropy and electric field gradient tensors). In this paper, three potentially interesting perspectives in connection with PAW/GIPAW in solid-state NMR and pure nuclear quadrupole resonance (NQR) are presented: (i) the calculation of J coupling tensors in inorganic solids; (ii) the calculation of the antisymmetric part of chemical shift tensors and (iii) the prediction of (14)N and (35)Cl pure NQR resonances including dynamics. We believe that these topics should open new insights in the combination of GIPAW, NMR/NQR crystallography, temperature effects and dynamics. Points (i), (ii) and (iii) will be illustrated by selected examples: (i) chemical shift tensors and heteronuclear (2)J(P-O-Si) coupling constants in the case of silicophosphates and calcium phosphates [Si(5)O(PO(4))(6), SiP(2)O(7) polymorphs and α-Ca(PO(3))(2)]; (ii) antisymmetric chemical shift tensors in cyclopropene derivatives, C(3)X(4) (X = H, Cl, F) and (iii) (14)N and (35)Cl NQR predictions in the case of RDX (C(3)H(6)N(6)O(6)), β-HMX (C(4)H(8)N(8)O(8)), α-NTO (C(2)H(2)N(4)O(3)) and AlOPCl(6). RDX, β-HMX and α-NTO are explosive compounds. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Using Haines Index coupled with fire weather model predicted from high resolution LAM forecasts to asses wildfire extreme behaviour in Southern Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaetani, Francesco; Baptiste Filippi, Jean; Simeoni, Albert; D'Andrea, Mirko

    2010-05-01

    Haines Index (HI) was developed by USDA Forest Service to measure the atmosphere's contribution to the growth potential of a wildfire. The Haines Index combines two atmospheric factors that are known to have an effect on wildfires: Stability and Dryness. As operational tools, HI proved its ability to predict plume dominated high intensity wildfires. However, since HI does not take into account the fuel continuity, composition and moisture conditions and the effects of wind and topography on fire behaviour, its use as forecasting tool should be carefully considered. In this work we propose the use of HI, predicted from HR Limited Area Model forecasts, coupled with a Fire Weather model (i.e., RISICO system) fully operational in Italy since 2003. RISICO is based on dynamic models able to represent in space and in time the effects that environment and vegetal physiology have on fuels and, in turn, on the potential behaviour of wildfires. The system automatically acquires from remote databases a thorough data-set of input information both of in situ and spatial nature. Meteorological observations, radar data, Limited Area Model weather forecasts, EO data, and fuel data are managed by a Unified Interface able to process a wide set of different data. Specific semi-physical models are used in the system to simulate the dynamics of the fuels (load and moisture contents of dead and live fuel) and the potential fire behaviour (rate of spread and linear intensity). A preliminary validation of this approach will be provided with reference to Sardinia and Corsica Islands, two major islands of the Mediterranean See frequently affected by extreme plume dominated wildfires. A time series of about 3000 wildfires burnt in Sardinia and Corsica in 2007 and 2008 will be used to evaluate the capability of HI coupled with the outputs of the Fire Weather model to forecast the actual risk in time and in space.

  6. Alexander Technique Training Coupled With an Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction in Teachers With Low Back Pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamalikhah, Tahereh; Morowatisharifabad, Mohammad Ali; Rezaei-Moghaddam, Farid; Ghasemi, Mohammad; Gholami-Fesharaki, Mohammad; Goklani, Salma

    2016-09-01

    Individuals suffering from chronic low back pain (CLBP) experience major physical, social, and occupational disruptions. Strong evidence confirms the effectiveness of Alexander technique (AT) training for CLBP. The present study applied an integrative model (IM) of behavioral prediction for improvement of AT training. This was a quasi-experimental study of female teachers with nonspecific LBP in southern Tehran in 2014. Group A contained 42 subjects and group B had 35 subjects. In group A, AT lessons were designed based on IM constructs, while in group B, AT lessons only were taught. The validity and reliability of the AT questionnaire were confirmed using content validity (CVR 0.91, CVI 0.96) and Cronbach's α (0.80). The IM constructs of both groups were measured after the completion of training. Statistical analysis used independent and paired samples t-tests and the univariate generalized linear model (GLM). Significant differences were recorded before and after intervention (P < 0.001) for the model constructs of intention, perceived risk, direct attitude, behavioral beliefs, and knowledge in both groups. Direct attitude and behavioral beliefs in group A were higher than in group B after the intervention (P < 0.03). The educational framework provided by IM for AT training improved attitude and behavioral beliefs that can facilitate the adoption of AT behavior and decreased CLBP.

  7. The Combined Application of the Caco-2 Cell Bioassay Coupled with In Vivo (Gallus gallus Feeding Trial Represents an Effective Approach to Predicting Fe Bioavailability in Humans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elad Tako

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Research methods that predict Fe bioavailability for humans can be extremely useful in evaluating food fortification strategies, developing Fe-biofortified enhanced staple food crops and assessing the Fe bioavailability of meal plans that include such crops. In this review, research from four recent poultry (Gallus gallus feeding trials coupled with in vitro analyses of Fe-biofortified crops will be compared to the parallel human efficacy studies which used the same varieties and harvests of the Fe-biofortified crops. Similar to the human studies, these trials were aimed to assess the potential effects of regular consumption of these enhanced staple crops on maintenance or improvement of iron status. The results demonstrate a strong agreement between the in vitro/in vivo screening approach and the parallel human studies. These observations therefore indicate that the in vitro/Caco-2 cell and Gallus gallus models can be integral tools to develop varieties of staple food crops and predict their effect on iron status in humans. The cost-effectiveness of this approach also means that it can be used to monitor the nutritional stability of the Fe-biofortified crop once a variety has released and integrated into the food system. These screening tools therefore represent a significant advancement to the field for crop development and can be applied to ensure the sustainability of the biofortification approach.

  8. Prediction of biotransformation products of the fungicide fluopyram by electrochemistry coupled online to liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry and comparison with in vitro microsomal assays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mekonnen, Tessema F; Panne, Ulrich; Koch, Matthias

    2018-04-01

    Biotransformation processes of fluopyram (FLP), a new succinate dehydrogenase inhibitor (SDHI) fungicide, were investigated by electrochemistry (EC) coupled online to liquid chromatography (LC) and electrospray mass spectrometry (ESI-MS). Oxidative phase I metabolite production was achieved using an electrochemical flow-through cell equipped with a boron-doped diamond (BDD) electrode. Structural elucidation and prediction of oxidative metabolism pathways were assured by retention time, isotopic patterns, fragmentation, and accurate mass measurements using EC/LC/MS, LC-MS/MS, and/or high-resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS). The results obtained by EC were compared with conventional in vitro studies by incubating FLP with rat and human liver microsomes (RLM, HLM). Known phase I metabolites of FLP (benzamide, benzoic acid, 7-hydroxyl, 8-hydroxyl, 7,8-dihydroxyl FLP, lactam FLP, pyridyl acetic acid, and Z/E-olefin FLP) were successfully simulated by EC/LC/MS. New metabolites including an imide, hydroxyl lactam, and 7-hydroxyl pyridyl acetic acid oxidative metabolites were predicted for the first time in our study using EC/LC/MS and liver microsomes. We found oxidation by dechlorination to be one of the major metabolism mechanisms of FLP. Thus, our results revealed that EC/LC/MS-based metabolic elucidation was more advantageous on time and cost of analysis and enabled matrix-free detection with valuable information about the mechanisms and intermediates of metabolism processes. Graphical abstract Oxidative metabolism of fluopyram.

  9. Use of thermodynamic coupling between antibody-antigen binding and phospholipid acyl chain phase transition energetics to predict immunoliposome targeting affinity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klegerman, Melvin E; Zou, Yuejiao; Golunski, Eva; Peng, Tao; Huang, Shao-Ling; McPherson, David D

    2014-09-01

    Thermodynamic analysis of ligand-target binding has been a useful tool for dissecting the nature of the binding mechanism and, therefore, potentially can provide valuable information regarding the utility of targeted formulations. Based on a consistent coupling of antibody-antigen binding and gel-liquid crystal transition energetics observed for antibody-phosphatidylethanolamine (Ab-PE) conjugates, we hypothesized that the thermodynamic parameters and the affinity for antigen of the Ab-PE conjugates could be effectively predicted once the corresponding information for the unconjugated antibody is determined. This hypothesis has now been tested in nine different antibody-targeted echogenic liposome (ELIP) preparations, where antibody is conjugated to dipalmitoylphosphatidylethanolamine (DPPE) head groups through a thioether linkage. Predictions were satisfactory (affinity not significantly different from the population of values found) in five cases (55.6%), but the affinity of the unconjugated antibody was not significantly different from the population of values found in six cases (66.7%), indicating that the affinities of the conjugated antibody tended not to deviate appreciably from those of the free antibody. While knowledge of the affinities of free antibodies may be sufficient to judge their suitability as targeting agents, thermodynamic analysis may still provide valuable information regarding their usefulness for specific applications.

  10. The Combined Application of the Caco-2 Cell Bioassay Coupled with In Vivo (Gallus gallus) Feeding Trial Represents an Effective Approach to Predicting Fe Bioavailability in Humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tako, Elad; Bar, Haim; Glahn, Raymond P.

    2016-01-01

    Research methods that predict Fe bioavailability for humans can be extremely useful in evaluating food fortification strategies, developing Fe-biofortified enhanced staple food crops and assessing the Fe bioavailability of meal plans that include such crops. In this review, research from four recent poultry (Gallus gallus) feeding trials coupled with in vitro analyses of Fe-biofortified crops will be compared to the parallel human efficacy studies which used the same varieties and harvests of the Fe-biofortified crops. Similar to the human studies, these trials were aimed to assess the potential effects of regular consumption of these enhanced staple crops on maintenance or improvement of iron status. The results demonstrate a strong agreement between the in vitro/in vivo screening approach and the parallel human studies. These observations therefore indicate that the in vitro/Caco-2 cell and Gallus gallus models can be integral tools to develop varieties of staple food crops and predict their effect on iron status in humans. The cost-effectiveness of this approach also means that it can be used to monitor the nutritional stability of the Fe-biofortified crop once a variety has released and integrated into the food system. These screening tools therefore represent a significant advancement to the field for crop development and can be applied to ensure the sustainability of the biofortification approach. PMID:27869705

  11. EMD-RBFNN Coupling Prediction Model of Complex Regional Groundwater Depth Series: A Case Study of the Jiansanjiang Administration of Heilongjiang Land Reclamation in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Fu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The accurate and reliable prediction of groundwater depth is the basis of the sustainable utilization of regional groundwater resources. However, the complexity of the prediction has been ignored in previous studies of regional groundwater depth system analysis and prediction, making it difficult to realize the scientific management of groundwater resources. To address this defect, taking complexity diagnosis as the research foundation, this paper proposes a new coupling forecast strategy for evaluating groundwater depth based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD and a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN. The data used for complexity analysis and modelling are the monthly groundwater depth series monitoring data from 15 long-term monitoring wells from 1997 to 2007, which were collected from the Jiansanjiang Administration of Heilongjiang Agricultural Reclamation in China. The calculation results of the comprehensive complexity index for each groundwater depth series obtained are based on wavelet theory, fractal theory, and the approximate entropy method. The monthly groundwater depth sequence of District 8 of Farm Nongjiang, which has the highest complexity among the five farms in the Jiansanjiang Administration midland, was chosen as the modelling sample series. The groundwater depth series of District 8 of Farm Nongjiang was separated into five intrinsic mode function (IMF sequences and a remainder sequence by applying the EMD method, which revealed that local groundwater depth has a significant one-year periodic character and an increasing trend. The RBFNN was then used to forecast and stack each EMD separation sequence. The results suggest that the future groundwater depth will remain at approximately 10 m if the past pattern of water use continues, exceeding the ideal depth of groundwater. Thus, local departments should take appropriate countermeasures to conserve groundwater resources effectively.

  12. The challenges of coastal oceanography. Prediction limits and new applications based on Sentinel data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Arcilla, Agustín; Carniel, Sandro; Badger, Merete; Bidlot, Jean; Boye Hansen, Lars; Bolaños-Sanchez, Rodolfo; Cipollini, Paolo; Espino, Manuel; Marcello Miglietta, Mario; Saulter, Andy; Staneva, Joanna

    2017-04-01

    The increasing quality and quantity (resolution in space, coverage in time, combinations of sensors in the Sentinel family) of information provided by Copernicus offer the possibility to analyse and predict coastal meteo-oceanography at an unprecedented level. This is a unique opportunity to develop the Copernicus coastal dimension to tackle the pressures of increasing population and activities. The combination of ocean/atmosphere/land observations from the Sentinel (S) 1/2/3, aligned with the availability of an increasing number of high-resolution numerical simulations (e.g. wave and current fields) in the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) catalogue, should allow users to access proven representations of the coastal environment at a new level of understanding (e.g. wave diffraction at coastal "obstacles"), coupling (e.g. incorporating the land discharge into the coastal sea) and reliability for applications (e.g. hazards for coastal navigation). By adding periodic bathymetric up-dating and incorporating new assimilation routines it will be possible to achieve a new level of analysis for coastal seas. In the paper we shall present the CEASELESS project that addresses the multiple scales coexisting in littoral areas by developing new shallow water parameterizations, introducing them into coupled model suites (wind-wave-surge-current-land discharge) and producing new standards for coastal simulations and analyses. This will demonstrate the technical feasibility of an operational coastal service. The set of derived products will be ingested into the users' work routines, proving the economic feasibility of such a coastal extension. The level of conflicts in squeezed coastal zones, expected to grow in the face of climate change, will, thus, benefit directly from CEASELESS, establishing tangible contributions for a wide range of economic sectors. The mutual validation of satellite data, numerical results and in-situ observations will generate

  13. Indian Ocean experiments with a coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wainer, I. [Sao Paulo, Univ. (Brazil). Dept. of Oceanography

    1997-03-01

    A coupled ocean-atmosphere model is used to investigate the equatorial Indian Ocean response to the seasonally varying monsoon winds. Special attention is given to the oceanic response to the spatial distribution and changes in direction of the zonal winds. The Indian Ocean is surrounded by an Asian land mass to the North and an African land mass to the West. The model extends latitudinally between 41 N and 41 S. The asymmetric atmospheric model is driven by a mass source/sink term that is proportional to the sea surface temperature (SST) over the oceans and the heat balance over the land. The ocean is modeled using the Anderson and McCreary reduced-gravity transport model that includes a prognostic equation for the SST. The coupled system is driven by the annual cycle as manifested by zonally symmetric and asymmetric land and ocean heating. They explored the different nature of the equatorial ocean response to various patterns of zonal wind stress forcing in order to isolate the impact of the remote response on the Somali current. The major conclusions are : i) the equatorial response is fundamentally different for easterlies and westerlies, ii) the impact of the remote forcing on the Somali current is a function of the annual cycle, iii) the size of the basin sets the phase of the interference of the remote forcing on the Somali current relative to the local forcing.

  14. Controlled experiments of hillslope co-evolution at the Biosphere 2 Landscape Evolution Observatory: toward prediction of coupled hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volkmann, T. H. M.; Sengupta, A.; Pangle, L.; Abramson, N.; Barron-Gafford, G.; Breshears, D. D.; Bugaj, A.; Chorover, J.; Dontsova, K.; Durcik, M.; Ferre, T. P. A.; Harman, C. J.; Hunt, E.; Huxman, T. E.; Kim, M.; Maier, R. M.; Matos, K.; Alves Meira Neto, A.; Meredith, L. K.; Monson, R. K.; Niu, G. Y.; Pelletier, J. D.; Rasmussen, C.; Ruiz, J.; Saleska, S. R.; Schaap, M. G.; Sibayan, M.; Tuller, M.; Van Haren, J. L. M.; Wang, Y.; Zeng, X.; Troch, P. A.

    2017-12-01

    the evolutionary trajectory, integrating data with models, and fostering community-wide collaborations, we envision that emergent landscape structures and functions can be linked and significant progress can be made toward predicting the coupled hydro-biogeochemical and ecological responses to global change.

  15. Intraseasonal SST-precipitation coupling during the Indian Summer Monsoon, and its modulation by the Indian Ocean Dipole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jongaramrungruang, S.; Seo, H.; Ummenhofer, C.

    2016-02-01

    The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) plays a crucial role in shaping the large proportion of the total precipitation over the Indian subcontinent each year. The ISM rainfall exhibits a particularly strong intraseasonal variability, that has profound socioeconomic consequences, such as agricultural planning and flood preparation. However, our understanding of the variability on this time scale is still limited due to sparse data availability in the past. In this study, we used a combination of state-of-the-art high-resolution satellite estimate of rainfall, objectively analyzed surface flux, as well as atmospheric reanalysis product to investigate the nature of the ISM intraseasonal rainfall variability and how it varies year to year. The emphasis is placed on the Bay of Bengal (BoB) where the intraseasonal ocean-atmosphere coupling is most prominent. Results show that the maximum warming of SST leads the onset of heavy precipitation event by 3-5 days, and that surface heat flux and surface wind speed are weak prior to the rain but amplifies and peaks after the rain reaches its maximum. Furthermore, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) significantly affects the observed intraseasonal SST-precipitation relationship. The pre-convection SST warming is stronger and more pronounced during the negative phase of the IOD, while the signal is weaker and less organized in the positive phase. This is explained by the column-integrated moisture budget analysis which reveals that, during the ISM heavy rainfall in the BoB, there is more moisture interchange in the form of enhanced vertical advection from the ocean to atmosphere in negative IOD years as compared to positive IOD years. Knowing the distinction of ISM variabilities during opposite phases of the IOD will help contribute to a more reliable prediction of ISM activities.

  16. Petroleomics by electrospray ionization FT-ICR mass spectrometry coupled to partial least squares with variable selection methods: prediction of the total acid number of crude oils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terra, Luciana A; Filgueiras, Paulo R; Tose, Lílian V; Romão, Wanderson; de Souza, Douglas D; de Castro, Eustáquio V R; de Oliveira, Mirela S L; Dias, Júlio C M; Poppi, Ronei J

    2014-10-07

    Negative-ion mode electrospray ionization, ESI(-), with Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) was coupled to a Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression and variable selection methods to estimate the total acid number (TAN) of Brazilian crude oil samples. Generally, ESI(-)-FT-ICR mass spectra present a power of resolution of ca. 500,000 and a mass accuracy less than 1 ppm, producing a data matrix containing over 5700 variables per sample. These variables correspond to heteroatom-containing species detected as deprotonated molecules, [M - H](-) ions, which are identified primarily as naphthenic acids, phenols and carbazole analog species. The TAN values for all samples ranged from 0.06 to 3.61 mg of KOH g(-1). To facilitate the spectral interpretation, three methods of variable selection were studied: variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least squares (iPLS) and elimination of uninformative variables (UVE). The UVE method seems to be more appropriate for selecting important variables, reducing the dimension of the variables to 183 and producing a root mean square error of prediction of 0.32 mg of KOH g(-1). By reducing the size of the data, it was possible to relate the selected variables with their corresponding molecular formulas, thus identifying the main chemical species responsible for the TAN values.

  17. The dependence of the electronic coupling on energy gap and bridge conformation - Towards prediction of the distance dependence of electron transfer reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eng, Mattias P.; Albinsson, Bo

    2009-01-01

    The attenuation factor, β, for the distance dependence of electron exchange reactions is a sensitive function of the donor-bridge energy gap and bridge conformation. In this work the electronic coupling for electron and triplet excitation energy transfer has been investigated for five commonly used repeating bridge structures. The investigated bridge structures are OF (oligo fluorene), OP (oligo phenylene), OPE (oligo p-phenyleneethynylene), OPV (oligo phenylenevinylene), and OTP (oligo thiophene). Firstly, the impact of the donor-bridge energy gap was investigated by performing calculations with a variety of donors appended onto bridges that were kept in a planar conformation. This resulted in, to our knowledge, the first presented sets of bridge specific parameters to be inserted into the commonly used McConnell model. Secondly, since at experimental conditions large conformational flexibility is expected, a previously developed model that takes conformational disorder of the bridge into account has been applied to the investigated systems [M.P. Eng, T. Ljungdahl, J. Martensson, B. Albinsson, J. Phys. Chem. B 110 (2006) 6483]. This model is based on Boltzmann averaging and has been shown to describe the temperature dependence of the attenuation factor through OPE-bridges. Together, the parameters describing the donor-bridge energy gap dependence, for planar bridge structures, and the Boltzmann averaging procedure, describing the impact of rotational disorder, have the potential to a priori predict attenuation factors for electron and excitation energy transfer reactions through bridged donor-acceptor systems

  18. WDL-RF: Predicting Bioactivities of Ligand Molecules Acting with G Protein-coupled Receptors by Combining Weighted Deep Learning and Random Forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jiansheng; Zhang, Qiuming; Wu, Weijian; Pang, Tao; Hu, Haifeng; Chan, Wallace K B; Ke, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Yang; Wren, Jonathan

    2018-02-08

    Precise assessment of ligand bioactivities (including IC50, EC50, Ki, Kd, etc.) is essential for virtual screening and lead compound identification. However, not all ligands have experimentally-determined activities. In particular, many G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs), which are the largest integral membrane protein family and represent targets of nearly 40% drugs on the market, lack published experimental data about ligand interactions. Computational methods with the ability to accurately predict the bioactivity of ligands can help efficiently address this problem. We proposed a new method, WDL-RF, using weighted deep learning and random forest, to model the bioactivity of GPCR-associated ligand molecules. The pipeline of our algorithm consists of two consecutive stages: 1) molecular fingerprint generation through a new weighted deep learning method, and 2) bioactivity calculations with a random forest model; where one uniqueness of the approach is that the model allows end-to-end learning of prediction pipelines with input ligands being of arbitrary size. The method was tested on a set of twenty-six non-redundant GPCRs that have a high number of active ligands, each with 200∼4000 ligand associations. The results from our benchmark show that WDL-RF can generate bioactivity predictions with an average root-mean square error 1.33 and correlation coefficient (r2) 0.80 compared to the experimental measurements, which are significantly more accurate than the control predictors with different molecular fingerprints and descriptors. In particular, data-driven molecular fingerprint features, as extracted from the weighted deep learning models, can help solve deficiencies stemming from the use of traditional hand-crafted features and significantly increase the efficiency of short molecular fingerprints in virtual screening. The WDL-RF web server, as well as source codes and datasets of WDL-RF, is freely available at https://zhanglab.ccmb.med.umich.edu/WDL-RF/ for

  19. Performance of a process-based hydrodynamic model in predicting shoreline change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safak, I.; Warner, J. C.; List, J. H.

    2012-12-01

    Shoreline change is controlled by a complex combination of processes that include waves, currents, sediment characteristics and availability, geologic framework, human interventions, and sea level rise. A comprehensive data set of shoreline position (14 shorelines between 1978-2002) along the continuous and relatively non-interrupted North Carolina Coast from Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras (65 km) reveals a spatial pattern of alternating erosion and accretion, with an erosional average shoreline change rate of -1.6 m/yr and up to -8 m/yr in some locations. This data set gives a unique opportunity to study long-term shoreline change in an area hit by frequent storm events while relatively uninfluenced by human interventions and the effects of tidal inlets. Accurate predictions of long-term shoreline change may require a model that accurately resolves surf zone processes and sediment transport patterns. Conventional methods for predicting shoreline change such as one-line models and regression of shoreline positions have been designed for computational efficiency. These methods, however, not only have several underlying restrictions (validity for small angle of wave approach, assuming bottom contours and shoreline to be parallel, depth of closure, etc.) but also their empirical estimates of sediment transport rates in the surf zone have been shown to vary greatly from the calculations of process-based hydrodynamic models. We focus on hind-casting long-term shoreline change using components of the process-based, three-dimensional coupled-ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport modeling system (COAWST). COAWST is forced with historical predictions of atmospheric and oceanographic data from public-domain global models. Through a method of coupled concurrent grid-refinement approach in COAWST, the finest grid with resolution of O(10 m) that covers the surf zone along the section of interest is forced at its spatial boundaries with waves and currents computed on the grids

  20. Climate variability in a coupled GCM. Pt. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Latif, M.; Sterl, A.; Assenbaum, M.; Junge, M.M.; Maier-Reimer, E.

    1993-01-01

    The seasonal cycle and the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean circulation are investigated and the Indian Summer Monsoon is simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model in a 26 year integration. Although the model exhibits significant climate drift, it simulates realistically the seasonal changes in the tropical Indian Ocean and the onset and evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon. The amplitudes of the seasonal changes, however, are somewhat underestimated. The coupled GCM also simulates considerable interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean circulation which is partly related to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the associated changes in the Walker Circulation. Changes in the surface wind stress appear to be crucial in forcing interannual variations in the Indian Ocean SST. As in the Pacific Ocean, the net surface heat flux acts as a negative feedback on the SST anomalies. The interannual variability in Monsoon rainfall is simulated by the coupled GCM only about half as strongly as observed. (orig.)

  1. A mathematical model for predicting photo-induced voltage and photostriction of PLZT with coupled multi-physics fields and its application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, J H; Wang, X J; Wang, J

    2016-01-01

    The primary purpose of this paper is to propose a mathematical model of PLZT ceramic with coupled multi-physics fields, e.g. thermal, electric, mechanical and light field. To this end, the coupling relationships of multi-physics fields and the mechanism of some effects resulting in the photostrictive effect are analyzed theoretically, based on which a mathematical model considering coupled multi-physics fields is established. According to the analysis and experimental results, the mathematical model can explain the hysteresis phenomenon and the variation trend of the photo-induced voltage very well and is in agreement with the experimental curves. In addition, the PLZT bimorph is applied as an energy transducer for a photovoltaic–electrostatic hybrid actuated micromirror, and the relation of the rotation angle and the photo-induced voltage is discussed based on the novel photostrictive mathematical model. (paper)

  2. EMP coupling to ships

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deadrick, F.J.; Cabayan, H.S.; Kunz, K.F.; Bevensee, R.M.; Martin, L.C.; Egbert, R.W.

    1980-01-01

    Scale-model tests were conducted to establish the adequacy and limitations of model measurements as tools for predicting electromagnetic pulse (EMP) coupling voltages and currents to the critical antennas, cables, and metallic structures on ships. The scale-model predictions are compared with the results of the full-scale EMP simulation test of the Canadian ASW ship, HMCS Huron. (The EMP coupling predictions in this report were made without prior knowledge of the results of the data from the HMCS Huron tests.) This report establishes that the scale-model tests in conjunction with the data base from EMP coupling modules provides the necessary information for source model development and permits effective, low-cost study of particular system configurations. 184 figures, 9 tables

  3. Bias changing molecule–lead couple and inducing low bias negative differential resistance for electrons acceptor predicted by first-principles study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Min, Y.; Fang, J.H.; Zhong, C.G.; Dong, Z.C.; Zhao, Z.Y.; Zhou, P.X.; Yao, K.L.

    2015-01-01

    A first-principles study of the transport properties of 3,13-dimercaptononacene–6,21-dione molecule sandwiched between two gold leads is reported. The strong effect of negative differential resistance with large peak-to-valley ratio of 710% is present under low bias. We found that bias can change molecule–lead couple and induce low bias negative differential resistance for electrons acceptor, which may promise the potential applications in molecular devices with low-power dissipation in the future. - Highlights: • Acceptor is constructed to negative differential resistor (NDR). • NDR effect is present under low bias. • Bias change molecule–lead couple and induce NDR effect

  4. A model predictive framework of Ground Source Heat Pump coupled with Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage System in heating and cooling equipment of a building

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rostampour Samarin, V.; Bloemendal, J.M.; Keviczky, T.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a complete model of a building heating and cooling equipment and a ground source heat pump (GSHP) coupled with an aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) system. This model contains detailed
    mathematical representations of building thermal dynamics, ATES system dynamics, heat

  5. Two new prediction rules for spontaneous pregnancy leading to live birth among subfertile couples, based on the synthesis of three previous models.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.C. Hunault; J.D.F. Habbema (Dik); M.J.C. Eijkemans (René); J.A. Collins (John); J.L.H. Evers (Johannes); E.R. te Velde (Egbert)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractBACKGROUND: Several models have been published for the prediction of spontaneous pregnancy among subfertile patients. The aim of this study was to broaden the empirical basis for these predictions by making a synthesis of three previously published models. METHODS:

  6. Observations and Modeling of Turbulent Air-Sea Coupling in Coastal and Strongly Forced Condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz-Suslow, David G.

    The turbulent fluxes of momentum, mass, and energy across the ocean-atmosphere boundary are fundamental to our understanding of a myriad of geophysical processes, such as wind-wave generation, oceanic circulation, and air-sea gas transfer. In order to better understand these fluxes, empirical relationships were developed to quantify the interfacial exchange rates in terms of easily observed parameters (e.g., wind speed). However, mounting evidence suggests that these empirical formulae are only valid over the relatively narrow parametric space, i.e. open ocean conditions in light to moderate winds. Several near-surface processes have been observed to cause significant variance in the air-sea fluxes not predicted by the conventional functions, such as a heterogeneous surfaces, swell waves, and wave breaking. Further study is needed to fully characterize how these types of processes can modulate the interfacial exchange; in order to achieve this, a broad investigation into air-sea coupling was undertaken. The primary focus of this work was to use a combination of field and laboratory observations and numerical modeling, in regimes where conventional theories would be expected to breakdown, namely: the nearshore and in very high winds. These seemingly disparate environments represent the marine atmospheric boundary layer at its physical limit. In the nearshore, the convergence of land, air, and sea in a depth-limited domain marks the transition from a marine to a terrestrial boundary layer. Under extreme winds, the physical nature of the boundary layer remains unknown as an intermediate substrate layer, sea spray, develops between the atmosphere and ocean surface. At these ends of the MABL physical spectrum, direct measurements of the near-surface processes were made and directly related to local sources of variance. Our results suggest that the conventional treatment of air-sea fluxes in terms of empirical relationships developed from a relatively narrow set of

  7. Extreme winds and waves for offshore turbines: Coupling atmosphere and wave modeling for design and operation in coastal zones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Bolanos, Rodolfo; Du, Jianting

    modeling for oshore wind farms. This modeling system consists of the atmospheric Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the wave model SWAN and an interface the Wave Boundary Layer Model WBLM, within the framework of coupled-ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport modeling system COAWST...... (Hereinafter the WRF-WBLM-SWAN model). WBLM is implemented in SWAN, and it calculates stress and kinetic energy budgets in the lowest atmospheric layer where the wave-induced stress is introduced to the atmospheric modeling. WBLM ensures consistent calculation of stress for both the atmospheric and wave......, which can aect the choice of the off-shore wind turbine type. X-WiWa examined various methodologies for wave modeling. The offline coupling system using atmospheric data such as WRF or global reanalysis wind field to the MIKE 21 SW model has been improved with considerations of stability, air density...

  8. The Southern Oscillation in a coupled GCM: Implications for climate sensitivity and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meehl, G.A.

    1990-01-01

    Results are presented from a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The atmospheric part of the coupled model is a global spectral (R15, 4.5 degree latitude by 7.5 degree longitude, 9 layers in the vertical) general circulation model. The ocean is coarse-grid (5 degree latitude by 5 degree longitude, 4 layers in the vertical) global general circulation model. The coupled model includes a simple thermodynamic sea-ice model. Due mainly to inherent limitations in the ocean model, the coupled model simulates sea surface temperatures that are too low in the tropics and too high in the extratropics in the mean. In spite of these limitations, the coupled model simulates active interannual variability of the global climate system involving signals in the tropical Pacific that resemble, in some respects, the observed Southern Oscillation. These signals in the tropics are associated with teleconnections to the extratropics of both hemispheres. The implications of this model-simulated interannual variability of the coupled system relating to climate sensitivity and climate change due to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide are discussed

  9. The Southern Oscillation in a coupled GCM: Implications for climate sensitivity and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meehl, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Results are presented from a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The atmospheric part of the coupled model is a global spectral (R15, 4.5 degree latitude by 7.5 degree longitude, 9 layers in the vertical) general circulation model. The ocean is coarse-grid (5 degree latitude by 5 degree longitude, 4 layers in the vertical) global general circulation model. The coupled model includes a simple thermodynamic sea-ice model. Due mainly to inherent limitations in the ocean model, the coupled model simulates sea surface temperatures that are too low in the tropics and too high in the extratropics in the mean. In spite of these limitations, the coupled model simulates active interannual variability of the global climate system involving signals in the tropical Pacific that resemble, in some respects, the observed Southern Oscillation. These signals in the tropics are associated with teleconnections to the extratropics of both hemispheres. The implications of this model-simulated interannual variability of the coupled system relating to climate sensitivity and climate change due to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide are discussed. 25 refs.; 9 figs

  10. Global response to solar radiation absorbed by phytoplankton in a coupled climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patara, Lavinia [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR), Kiel (Germany); Vichi, Marcello; Masina, Simona [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Fogli, Pier Giuseppe [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Manzini, Elisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

    2012-10-15

    The global climate response to solar radiation absorbed by phytoplankton is investigated by performing multi-century simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere-biogeochemistry model. The absorption of solar radiation by phytoplankton increases radiative heating in the near-surface ocean and raises sea surface temperature (SST) by overall {approx}0.5 C. The resulting increase in evaporation enhances specific atmospheric humidity by 2-5%, thereby increasing the Earth's greenhouse effect and the atmospheric temperatures. The Hadley Cell exhibits a weakening and poleward expansion, therefore reducing cloudiness at subtropical-middle latitudes and increasing it at tropical latitudes except near the Equator. Higher SST at polar latitudes reduces sea ice cover and albedo, thereby increasing the high-latitude ocean absorption of solar radiation. Changes in the atmospheric baroclinicity cause a poleward intensification of mid-latitude westerly winds in both hemispheres. As a result, the North Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation extends more northward, and the equatorward Ekman transport is enhanced in the Southern Ocean. The combination of local and dynamical processes decreases upper-ocean heat content in the Tropics and in the subpolar Southern Ocean, and increases it at middle latitudes. This study highlights the relevance of coupled ocean-atmosphere processes in the global climate response to phytoplankton solar absorption. Given that simulated impacts of phytoplankton on physical climate are within the range of natural climate variability, this study suggests the importance of phytoplankton as an internal constituent of the Earth's climate and its potential role in participating in its long-term climate adjustments. (orig.)

  11. Global response to solar radiation absorbed by phytoplankton in a coupled climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patara, Lavinia; Vichi, Marcello; Masina, Simona; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Manzini, Elisa

    2012-01-01

    The global climate response to solar radiation absorbed by phytoplankton is investigated by performing multi-century simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere-biogeochemistry model. The absorption of solar radiation by phytoplankton increases radiative heating in the near-surface ocean and raises sea surface temperature (SST) by overall ∼0.5 C. The resulting increase in evaporation enhances specific atmospheric humidity by 2-5%, thereby increasing the Earth's greenhouse effect and the atmospheric temperatures. The Hadley Cell exhibits a weakening and poleward expansion, therefore reducing cloudiness at subtropical-middle latitudes and increasing it at tropical latitudes except near the Equator. Higher SST at polar latitudes reduces sea ice cover and albedo, thereby increasing the high-latitude ocean absorption of solar radiation. Changes in the atmospheric baroclinicity cause a poleward intensification of mid-latitude westerly winds in both hemispheres. As a result, the North Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation extends more northward, and the equatorward Ekman transport is enhanced in the Southern Ocean. The combination of local and dynamical processes decreases upper-ocean heat content in the Tropics and in the subpolar Southern Ocean, and increases it at middle latitudes. This study highlights the relevance of coupled ocean-atmosphere processes in the global climate response to phytoplankton solar absorption. Given that simulated impacts of phytoplankton on physical climate are within the range of natural climate variability, this study suggests the importance of phytoplankton as an internal constituent of the Earth's climate and its potential role in participating in its long-term climate adjustments. (orig.)

  12. Climatology and variability in the ECHO coupled GCM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Latif, M.; Stockdale, T.; Wolff, J.; Burgers, G.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Junge, M.M.; Arpe, K.; Bengtsson, L.

    1993-01-01

    ECHO is a new global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM), consisting of the Hamburg version of the European Centre atmospheric GCM (ECHAM) and the Hamburg Primitive Equation ocean GCM (HOPE). We performed a twenty year integration with ECHO. Climate drift is significant, but typical in the open oceans. Near the boundaries, however, SST errors are considerably larger. The coupled model simulates an irregular ENSO cycle in the tropical Pacific, with spatial patterns similar to those observed. The mechanism behind the model ENSO is related to the subsurface memory of the system, but stochastic forcing by the atmosphere seems to be also important. The variability, however, is somewhat weaker relative to observations. ECHO also simulates significant interannual variability in midlatitudes. Consistent with observations, variability over the North Pacific can be partly attributed to remote forcing from the tropics. In contract, the interannual variability over the North Atlantic appears to be generated locally. Indications for decadal-scale variability are also found over the North Atlantic. (orig.)

  13. International Migration of Couples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Junge, Martin; Munk, Martin D.; Nikolka, Till

    2018-01-01

    Migrant self-selection is important to labor markets and public finances in both origin and destination countries. We develop a theoretical model regarding the migration of dual-earner couples and test it using population-wide administrative data from Denmark. Our model predicts that the probabil...

  14. Evaluating the accuracy of theoretical one-bond 13 C─13 C scalar couplings and their ability to predict structure in a natural product.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Jacob; Valenti, Domenic; Bobnar, Harley; Drain, Erika; Elliott, Blaine; Frank, Sydney; McCullough, Tyler; Moore, Sean; Kettring, Andrew; Iuliucci, Robbie; Harper, James K

    2017-11-01

    This study explores the feasibility of using a combination of experimental and theoretical 1-bond 13 C─ 13 C scalar couplings ( 1 J CC ) to establish structure in organic compounds, including unknowns. Historically, n J CC and n J CH studies have emphasized 2 and 3-bond couplings, yet 1 J CC couplings exhibit significantly larger variations. Moreover, recent improvements in experimental measurement and data processing methods have made 1 J CC data more available. Herein, an approach is evaluated in which a collection of theoretical structures is created from a partial nuclear magnetic resonance structural characterization. Computed 1 J CC values are compared to experimental data to identify candidates giving the best agreement. This process requires knowledge of the error in theoretical methods, thus the B3LYP, B3PW91, and PBE0 functionals are evaluated by comparing to 27 experimental values from INADEQUATE. Respective errors of ±1.2, ±3.8, and ±2.3 Hz are observed. An initial test of this methodology involves the natural product 5-methylmellein. In this case, only a single candidate matches experimental data with high statistical confidence. This analysis establishes the intramolecular hydrogen-bonding arrangement, ring heteroatom identity, and conformation at one position. This approach is then extended to hydroheptelidic acid, a natural product not fully characterized in prior studies. The experimental/theoretical approach proposed herein identifies a single best-fit structure from among 26 candidates and establishes, for the first time, 1 configuration and 3 conformations to complete the characterization. These results suggest that accurate and complete structural characterizations of many moderately sized organic structures (<800 Da) may be possible using only 1 J CC data. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Entrepreneurial Couples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Michael S.; Van Praag, Mirjam; Thompson, Peter

    2015-01-01

    We study possible motivations for co-entreprenurial couples to start up a joint firm, using a sample of 1,069 Danish couples that established a joint enterprise between 2001 and 2010. We compare their pre-entry characteristics, firm performance and post-dissolution private and financial outcomes...

  16. The combined application of the Caco-2 cell bioassay coupled with in vivo (Gallus gallus) feeding trial represents an effective approach to predicting Fe bioavailability in humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Research methods that predict Fe bioavailability for humans can be extremely useful in evaluating food fortification strategies, developing Fe-biofortified enhanced staple food crops and assessing the Fe bioavailability of meal plans that include such crops. In this review, research from four recent...

  17. A Velocity Prediction Procedure for Sailing Yachts with a hydrodynamic Model based on integrated fully coupled RANSE-Free-Surface Simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boehm, C.

    2014-01-01

    One of the most important tools in today's sailing yacht design is the Velocity Prediction Program (VPP). VPPs calculate boat speed from the equilibrium of aero- and hydrodynamic flow forces. Consequently their accuracy is linked to the accuracy of the aero- and hydrodynamic data used to represent a

  18. Quantifying characteristic growth dynamics in a semiarid grassland ecosystem by predicting short-term NDVI phenology from daily rainfall: a simple 4 parameter coupled-reservoir model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Predicting impacts of the magnitude and seasonal timing of rainfall pulses in water-limited grassland ecosystems concerns ecologists, climate scientists, hydrologists, and a variety of stakeholders. This report describes a simple, effective procedure to emulate the seasonal response of grassland bio...

  19. Prediction of irradiation induced microstructures in the AgCu model alloy using a multiscale method coupling atomistic and phase field modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Demange, Gilles; Pontikis, Vassilis; Lunéville, Laurence; Simeone, David

    2016-01-01

    In this work, a multiscale approach based on phase field was developed to simulate the microstructure's evolution under irradiation in binary systems, from atomic to microstructural scale. For that purpose, an efficient numerical scheme was developed. In the case of AgCu alloy under Krypton ions irradiation, phenomenological parameters were computed using atomistic methods, as a function of the temperature and the irradiation flux. As a result, we predicted the influence of the irradiation fl...

  20. Entrepreneurial Couples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Michael S.; Van Praag, Mirjam; Thompson, Peter

    with a selected set of comparable firms and couples. We find evidence that couples often establish a business together because one spouse – most commonly the female – has limited outside opportunities in the labor market. However, the financial benefits for each of the spouses, and especially the female......We study possible motivations for co-entrepenurial couples to start up a joint firm, using a sample of 1,069 Danish couples that established a joint enterprise between 2001 and 2010. We compare their pre-entry characteristics, firm performance and postdissolution private and financial outcomes......, are larger in co-entrepreneurial firms, both during the life of the business and post-dissolution. The start-up of co-entrepreneurial firms seems therefore a sound investment in the human capital of both spouses as well as in the reduction of income inequality in the household. We find no evidence of non...

  1. Entrepreneurial Couples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Michael S.; Van Praag, Mirjam; Thompson, Peter

    with a selected set of comparable firms and couples. We find evidence that couples often establish a business together because one spouse - most commonly the female - has limited outside opportunities in the labor market. However, the financial benefits for each of the spouses, and especially the female......We study possible motivations for co-entrepenurial couples to start up a joint firm, us-ing a sample of 1,069 Danish couples that established a joint enterprise between 2001 and 2010. We compare their pre-entry characteristics, firm performance and post-dissolution private and financial outcomes......, are larger in co-entrepreneurial firms, both during the life of the business and post-dissolution. The start-up of co-entrepreneurial firms seems therefore a sound in-vestment in the human capital of both spouses as well as in the reduction of income inequality in the household. We find no evidence of non...

  2. Biological couplings: Classification and characteristic rules

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The phenomena that biological functions originate from biological coupling are the important biological foundation of multiple bionics and the significant discoveries in the bionic fields. In this paper, the basic concepts related to biological coupling are introduced from the bionic viewpoint. Constitution, classification and characteristic rules of biological coupling are illuminated, the general modes of biological coupling studies are analyzed, and the prospects of multi-coupling bionics are predicted.

  3. Investigations of Fluid-Structure-Coupling and Turbulence Model Effects on the DLR Results of the Fifth AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keye, Stefan; Togiti, Vamish; Eisfeld, Bernhard; Brodersen, Olaf P.; Rivers, Melissa B.

    2013-01-01

    The accurate calculation of aerodynamic forces and moments is of significant importance during the design phase of an aircraft. Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) based Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has been strongly developed over the last two decades regarding robustness, efficiency, and capabilities for aerodynamically complex configurations. Incremental aerodynamic coefficients of different designs can be calculated with an acceptable reliability at the cruise design point of transonic aircraft for non-separated flows. But regarding absolute values as well as increments at off-design significant challenges still exist to compute aerodynamic data and the underlying flow physics with the accuracy required. In addition to drag, pitching moments are difficult to predict because small deviations of the pressure distributions, e.g. due to neglecting wing bending and twisting caused by the aerodynamic loads can result in large discrepancies compared to experimental data. Flow separations that start to develop at off-design conditions, e.g. in corner-flows, at trailing edges, or shock induced, can have a strong impact on the predictions of aerodynamic coefficients too. Based on these challenges faced by the CFD community a working group of the AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Technical Committee initiated in 2001 the CFD Drag Prediction Workshop (DPW) series resulting in five international workshops. The results of the participants and the committee are summarized in more than 120 papers. The latest, fifth workshop took place in June 2012 in conjunction with the 30th AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Conference. The results in this paper will evaluate the influence of static aeroelastic wing deformations onto pressure distributions and overall aerodynamic coefficients based on the NASA finite element structural model and the common grids.

  4. A coupled model approach to reduce nonpoint-source pollution resulting from predicted urban growth: A case study in the Ambos Nogales watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, L.M.; Guertin, D.P.; Feller, M.

    2008-01-01

    The development of new approaches for understanding processes of urban development and their environmental effects, as well as strategies for sustainable management, is essential in expanding metropolitan areas. This study illustrates the potential of linking urban growth and watershed models to identify problem areas and support long-term watershed planning. Sediment is a primary source of nonpoint-source pollution in surface waters. In urban areas, sediment is intermingled with other surface debris in transport. In an effort to forecast the effects of development on surface-water quality, changes predicted in urban areas by the SLEUTH urban growth model were applied in the context of erosion-sedimentation models (Universal Soil Loss Equation and Spatially Explicit Delivery Models). The models are used to simulate the effect of excluding hot-spot areas of erosion and sedimentation from future urban growth and to predict the impacts of alternative erosion-control scenarios. Ambos Nogales, meaning 'both Nogaleses,' is a name commonly used for the twin border cities of Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico. The Ambos Nogales watershed has experienced a decrease in water quality as a result of urban development in the twin-city area. Population growth rates in Ambos Nogales are high and the resources set in place to accommodate the rapid population influx will soon become overburdened. Because of its remote location and binational governance, monitoring and planning across the border is compromised. One scenario described in this research portrays an improvement in water quality through the identification of high-risk areas using models that simulate their protection from development and replanting with native grasses, while permitting the predicted and inevitable growth elsewhere. This is meant to add to the body of knowledge about forecasting the impact potential of urbanization on sediment delivery to streams for sustainable development, which can be

  5. Genetic influences on functional connectivity associated with feedback processing and prediction error: Phase coupling of theta-band oscillations in twins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demiral, Şükrü Barış; Golosheykin, Simon; Anokhin, Andrey P

    2017-05-01

    Detection and evaluation of the mismatch between the intended and actually obtained result of an action (reward prediction error) is an integral component of adaptive self-regulation of behavior. Extensive human and animal research has shown that evaluation of action outcome is supported by a distributed network of brain regions in which the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) plays a central role, and the integration of distant brain regions into a unified feedback-processing network is enabled by long-range phase synchronization of cortical oscillations in the theta band. Neural correlates of feedback processing are associated with individual differences in normal and abnormal behavior, however, little is known about the role of genetic factors in the cerebral mechanisms of feedback processing. Here we examined genetic influences on functional cortical connectivity related to prediction error in young adult twins (age 18, n=399) using event-related EEG phase coherence analysis in a monetary gambling task. To identify prediction error-specific connectivity pattern, we compared responses to loss and gain feedback. Monetary loss produced a significant increase of theta-band synchronization between the frontal midline region and widespread areas of the scalp, particularly parietal areas, whereas gain resulted in increased synchrony primarily within the posterior regions. Genetic analyses showed significant heritability of frontoparietal theta phase synchronization (24 to 46%), suggesting that individual differences in large-scale network dynamics are under substantial genetic control. We conclude that theta-band synchronization of brain oscillations related to negative feedback reflects genetically transmitted differences in the neural mechanisms of feedback processing. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence for genetic influences on task-related functional brain connectivity assessed using direct real-time measures of neuronal synchronization. Copyright © 2016

  6. Predicting a graphene-like WB4 nanosheet with a double Dirac cone, an ultra-high Fermi velocity and significant gap opening by spin-orbit coupling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chunmei; Jiao, Yalong; Ma, Fengxian; Bottle, Steven; Zhao, Mingwen; Chen, Zhongfang; Du, Aijun

    2017-02-15

    The zero-band gap nature of graphene prevents it from performing as a semi-conductor in modern electronics. Although various graphene modification strategies have been developed to address this limitation, the very small band gap of these materials and the suppressed charge carrier mobility of the devices developed still significantly hinder graphene's applications. In this work, a two dimensional (2D) WB 4 monolayer, which exhibits a double Dirac cone, was conceived and assessed using density functional theory (DFT) methods, which would provide a sizable band gap while maintaining higher charge mobility with a Fermi velocity of 1.099 × 10 6 m s -1 . Strong spin-orbit-coupling can generate an observable band gap of up to 0.27 eV that primarily originates from the d-orbit of the heavy metal atom W; therefore a 2D WB 4 nanosheet would be operable at room temperature (T = 300 K) and would be a promising candidate to fabricate nanoelectronics in the upcoming post-silicon era. The phonon-spectrum and ab initio molecular dynamics calculations further demonstrate the dynamic and thermal stability of such nanosheets, thus, suggesting a potentially synthesizable Dirac material.

  7. Intraseasonal variability in the far-east pacific: investigation of the role of air-sea coupling in a regional coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Small, R.J. [Naval Research Laboratory, Jacobs Technology, Stennis Space Center, MS (United States); University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Center, POST 401, Honolulu, HI (United States); Xie, Shang-Ping [University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Center, POST 401, Honolulu, HI (United States); University of Hawaii, Department of Meteorology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Honolulu, HI (United States); Maloney, Eric D. [Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science, Fort Collins, CO (United States); Szoeke, Simon P. de [Oregon State University, College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, OR (United States); Miyama, Toru [Frontier Research for Global Change, Yokohama (Japan)

    2011-03-15

    Intraseasonal variability in the eastern Pacific warm pool in summer is studied, using a regional ocean-atmosphere model, a linear baroclinic model (LBM), and satellite observations. The atmospheric component of the model is forced by lateral boundary conditions from reanalysis data. The aim is to quantify the importance to atmospheric deep convection of local air-sea coupling. In particular, the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on surface heat fluxes is examined. Intraseasonal (20-90 day) east Pacific warm-pool zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) variability in the regional coupled model are correlated at 0.8 and 0.6 with observations, respectively, significant at the 99% confidence level. The strength of the intraseasonal variability in the coupled model, as measured by the variance of outgoing longwave radiation, is close in magnitude to that observed, but with a maximum located about 10 further west. East Pacific warm pool intraseasonal convection and winds agree in phase with those from observations, suggesting that remote forcing at the boundaries associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation determines the phase of intraseasonal convection in the east Pacific warm pool. When the ocean model component is replaced by weekly reanalysis SST in an atmosphere-only experiment, there is a slight improvement in the location of the highest OLR variance. Further sensitivity experiments with the regional atmosphere-only model in which intraseasonal SST variability is removed indicate that convective variability has only a weak dependence on the SST variability, but a stronger dependence on the climatological mean SST distribution. A scaling analysis confirms that wind speed anomalies give a much larger contribution to the intraseasonal evaporation signal than SST anomalies, in both model and observations. A LBM is used to show that local feedbacks would serve to amplify intraseasonal convection and the large-scale circulation. Further

  8. Omens of coupled model biases in the CMIP5 AMIP simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Găinuşă-Bogdan, Alina; Hourdin, Frédéric; Traore, Abdoul Khadre; Braconnot, Pascale

    2018-02-01

    Despite decades of efforts and improvements in the representation of processes as well as in model resolution, current global climate models still suffer from a set of important, systematic biases in sea surface temperature (SST), not much different from the previous generation of climate models. Many studies have looked at errors in the wind field, cloud representation or oceanic upwelling in coupled models to explain the SST errors. In this paper we highlight the relationship between latent heat flux (LH) biases in forced atmospheric simulations and the SST biases models develop in coupled mode, at the scale of the entire intertropical domain. By analyzing 22 pairs of forced atmospheric and coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations from the CMIP5 database, we show a systematic, negative correlation between the spatial patterns of these two biases. This link between forced and coupled bias patterns is also confirmed by two sets of dedicated sensitivity experiments with the IPSL-CM5A-LR model. The analysis of the sources of the atmospheric LH bias pattern reveals that the near-surface wind speed bias dominates the zonal structure of the LH bias and that the near-surface relative humidity dominates the east-west contrasts.

  9. Impact of bio-physical feedbacks on the tropical climate in coupled and uncoupled GCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Seo, Hyodae; Bader, Jürgen

    2014-10-01

    The bio-physical feedback process between the marine ecosystem and the tropical climate system is investigated using both an ocean circulation model and a fully-coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation model, which interact with a biogeochemical model. We found that the presence of chlorophyll can have significant impact on the characteristics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), including its amplitude and asymmetry, as well as on the mean state. That is, chlorophyll generally increases mean sea surface temperature (SST) due to the direct biological heating. However, SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific decreases due to the stronger indirect dynamical response to the biological effects outweighing the direct thermal response. It is demonstrated that this biologically-induced SST cooling is intensified and conveyed to other tropical-ocean basins when atmosphere-ocean coupling is taken into account. It is also found that the presence of chlorophyll affects the magnitude of ENSO by two different mechanisms; one is an amplifying effect by the mean chlorophyll, which is associated with shoaling of the mean thermocline depth, and the other is a damping effect derived from the interactively-varying chlorophyll coupled with the physical model. The atmosphere-ocean coupling reduces the biologically-induced ENSO amplifying effect through the weakening of atmospheric feedback. Lastly, there is also a biological impact on ENSO which enhances the positive skewness. This skewness change is presumably caused by the phase dependency of thermocline feedback which affects the ENSO magnitude.

  10. Preliminary assessment of the performance of a global coupled atmosphere-ocean model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cubasch, U.

    1990-01-01

    A low-resolution version of the ECMWF global atmosphere model has been coupled to a global ocean model developed at the Max Planck Institute in Hamburg. The atmosphere model is driven by the sea surface temperature and the ice thickness calculated by the ocean model, which, in return, is driven by the wind stress, the heat flux and the freshwater flux diagnosed by the atmosphere model. Even though each model reaches stationarity when integrated on its own, the coupling of both creates problems, since the fields calculated by each model are not consistent with the ones the other model has to have in order to stay stationary, because some of the fluxes are not balanced. In the coupled experiment the combined ocean-atmosphere system drifts toward a colder state. To counteract this problem, a flux correction has been applied which balances the mean biases of each model. This method almost eliminates the climate drift of the coupled model. Problems still arise over ice covered regions

  11. Performance analysis of coupled and uncoupled hydrodynamic and wave models in the northern Adriatic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busca, Claudia; Coluccelli, Alessandro; Valentini, Andrea; Benetazzo, Alvise; Bonaldo, Davide; Bortoluzzi, Giovanni; Carniel, Sandro; Falcieri, Francesco; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Ravaioli, Mariangela; Riminucci, Francesco; Sclavo, Mauro; Russo, Aniello

    2014-05-01

    The complex dynamics of the Adriatic Sea are the result of geographical position, orography and bathymetry, as well as rivers discharge and meteorological conditions that influence, more strongly, the shallow northern part. Such complexity requires a constant monitoring of marine conditions in order to support several activities (marine resources management, naval operations, emergency management, shipping, tourism, as well as scientific ones). Platforms, buoys and mooring located in Adriatic Sea supply almost continuously real time punctual information, which can be spatially extended, with some limitations, by drifters and remote sensing. Operational forecasting systems represent valid tools to provide a complete tridimensional coverage of the area, with a high spatial and temporal resolution. The Hydro-Meteo-Clima Service of the Emilia-Romagna Environmental Agency (ARPA-SIMC, Bologna, Italy) and the Dept. of Life and Environmental Sciences of Università Politecnica delle Marche (DISVA-UNIVPM, Ancona, Italy), in collaboration with the Institute of Marine Science of the National Research Council (ISMAR-CNR, Italy) operationally run several wave and hydrodynamic models on the Adriatic Sea. The main implementations are based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), the wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), and the coupling of the former two models in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) system. Horizontal resolutions of the different systems range from the 2 km of AdriaROMS to the 0.5 km of the recently implemented northern Adriatic COAWST. Forecasts are produced every day for the subsequent 72 hour with hourly resolution. All the systems compute the fluxes exchanged through the interface with the atmosphere from the numerical weather prediction system named COSMO-I7, an implementation for Italy of the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model, at 7 km horizontal resolution. Considering the several operational

  12. Model-based investigation of the circadian clock and cell cycle coupling in mouse embryonic fibroblasts: Prediction of RevErb-α up-regulation during mitosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Traynard, Pauline; Feillet, Céline; Soliman, Sylvain; Delaunay, Franck; Fages, François

    2016-11-01

    Experimental observations have put in evidence autonomous self-sustained circadian oscillators in most mammalian cells, and proved the existence of molecular links between the circadian clock and the cell cycle. Some mathematical models have also been built to assess conditions of control of the cell cycle by the circadian clock. However, recent studies in individual NIH3T3 fibroblasts have shown an unexpected acceleration of the circadian clock together with the cell cycle when the culture medium is enriched with growth factors, and the absence of such acceleration in confluent cells. In order to explain these observations, we study a possible entrainment of the circadian clock by the cell cycle through a regulation of clock genes around the mitosis phase. We develop a computational model and a formal specification of the observed behavior to investigate the conditions of entrainment in period and phase. We show that either the selective activation of RevErb-α or the selective inhibition of Bmal1 transcription during the mitosis phase, allow us to fit the experimental data on both period and phase, while a uniform inhibition of transcription during mitosis seems incompatible with the phase data. We conclude on the arguments favoring the RevErb-α up-regulation hypothesis and on some further predictions of the model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Incorporating drug delivery into an imaging-driven, mechanics-coupled reaction diffusion model for predicting the response of breast cancer to neoadjuvant chemotherapy: theory and preliminary clinical results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarrett, Angela M.; Hormuth, David A.; Barnes, Stephanie L.; Feng, Xinzeng; Huang, Wei; Yankeelov, Thomas E.

    2018-05-01

    Clinical methods for assessing tumor response to therapy are largely rudimentary, monitoring only temporal changes in tumor size. Our goal is to predict the response of breast tumors to therapy using a mathematical model that utilizes magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data obtained non-invasively from individual patients. We extended a previously established, mechanically coupled, reaction-diffusion model for predicting tumor response initialized with patient-specific diffusion weighted MRI (DW-MRI) data by including the effects of chemotherapy drug delivery, which is estimated using dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE-) MRI data. The extended, drug incorporated, model is initialized using patient-specific DW-MRI and DCE-MRI data. Data sets from five breast cancer patients were used—obtained before, after one cycle, and at mid-point of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The DCE-MRI data was used to estimate spatiotemporal variations in tumor perfusion with the extended Kety–Tofts model. The physiological parameters derived from DCE-MRI were used to model changes in delivery of therapy drugs within the tumor for incorporation in the extended model. We simulated the original model and the extended model in both 2D and 3D and compare the results for this five-patient cohort. Preliminary results show reductions in the error of model predicted tumor cellularity and size compared to the experimentally-measured results for the third MRI scan when therapy was incorporated. Comparing the two models for agreement between the predicted total cellularity and the calculated total cellularity (from the DW-MRI data) reveals an increased concordance correlation coefficient from 0.81 to 0.98 for the 2D analysis and 0.85 to 0.99 for the 3D analysis (p  <  0.01 for each) when the extended model was used in place of the original model. This study demonstrates the plausibility of using DCE-MRI data as a means to estimate drug delivery on a patient-specific basis in predictive models and

  14. Monthly to seasonal low flow prediction: statistical versus dynamical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Klein, Bastian; Meissner, Dennis; Rademacher, Silke

    2016-04-01

    While the societal and economical impacts of floods are well documented and assessable, the impacts of lows flows are less studied and sometimes overlooked. For example, over the western part of Europe, due to intense inland waterway transportation, the economical loses due to low flows are often similar compared to the ones due to floods. In general, the low flow aspect has the tendency to be underestimated by the scientific community. One of the best examples in this respect is the facts that at European level most of the countries have an (early) flood alert system, but in many cases no real information regarding the development, evolution and impacts of droughts. Low flows, occurring during dry periods, may result in several types of problems to society and economy: e.g. lack of water for drinking, irrigation, industrial use and power production, deterioration of water quality, inland waterway transport, agriculture, tourism, issuing and renewing waste disposal permits, and for assessing the impact of prolonged drought on aquatic ecosystems. As such, the ever-increasing demand on water resources calls for better a management, understanding and prediction of the water deficit situation and for more reliable and extended studies regarding the evolution of the low flow situations. In order to find an optimized monthly to seasonal forecast procedure for the German waterways, the Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) is exploring multiple approaches at the moment. On the one hand, based on the operational short- to medium-range forecasting chain, existing hydrological models are forced with two different hydro-meteorological inputs: (i) resampled historical meteorology generated by the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction approach and (ii) ensemble (re-) forecasts of ECMWF's global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, which have to be downscaled and bias corrected before feeding the hydrological models. As a second approach BfG evaluates in cooperation with

  15. Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, A; Sperber, K R; Slingo, J M; Meehl, G A; Mechoso, C R; Kimoto, M; Giannini, A

    2008-09-16

    The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal timescales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features

  16. Ocean-atmosphere interaction and synoptic weather conditions in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    turbances over oceans. On the other hand, these disturbances have an impact on the oceanic mixed layer, causing changes in the SST. This complex feed back process between the sea surface and the atmospheric disturbances is important in deter- mining the life span of the synoptic scale events. (Paul et al 1992). In view ...

  17. Quantifying the drivers of ocean-atmosphere CO2 fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauderdale, Jonathan M.; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Williams, Richard G.; Follows, Michael J.

    2016-07-01

    A mechanistic framework for quantitatively mapping the regional drivers of air-sea CO2 fluxes at a global scale is developed. The framework evaluates the interplay between (1) surface heat and freshwater fluxes that influence the potential saturated carbon concentration, which depends on changes in sea surface temperature, salinity and alkalinity, (2) a residual, disequilibrium flux influenced by upwelling and entrainment of remineralized carbon- and nutrient-rich waters from the ocean interior, as well as rapid subduction of surface waters, (3) carbon uptake and export by biological activity as both soft tissue and carbonate, and (4) the effect on surface carbon concentrations due to freshwater precipitation or evaporation. In a steady state simulation of a coarse-resolution ocean circulation and biogeochemistry model, the sum of the individually determined components is close to the known total flux of the simulation. The leading order balance, identified in different dynamical regimes, is between the CO2 fluxes driven by surface heat fluxes and a combination of biologically driven carbon uptake and disequilibrium-driven carbon outgassing. The framework is still able to reconstruct simulated fluxes when evaluated using monthly averaged data and takes a form that can be applied consistently in models of different complexity and observations of the ocean. In this way, the framework may reveal differences in the balance of drivers acting across an ensemble of climate model simulations or be applied to an analysis and interpretation of the observed, real-world air-sea flux of CO2.

  18. International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface marine observational records from ships, buoys, and other platform types are processed and binned creating monthly global and regional grids of the...

  19. Biogeochemical ocean-atmosphere transfers in the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naqvi, S.W.A.; Bange, H.W.; Gibb, S.W.; Goyet, C.; Hatton, A.D.; Upstill-Goddard, R.C.

    Transfers of some important biogenic atmospheric constituents, carbon dioxide (CO sub (2)), methane (CH Sub (4)), molecular nitrogen (N sub (2)), nitrous oxide (N sub (2) O), nitrate NO super(-) sub (3) , ammonia (NH sub(3)), methylamines (MAs...

  20. Unification predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghilencea, D.; Ross, G.G.; Lanzagorta, M.

    1997-07-01

    The unification of gauge couplings suggests that there is an underlying (supersymmetric) unification of the strong, electromagnetic and weak interactions. The prediction of the unification scale may be the first quantitative indication that this unification may extend to unification with gravity. We make a precise determination of these predictions for a class of models which extend the multiplet structure of the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model to include the heavy states expected in many Grand Unified and/or superstring theories. We show that there is a strong cancellation between the 2-loop and threshold effects. As a result the net effect is smaller than previously thought, giving a small increase in both the unification scale and the value of the strong coupling at low energies. (author). 15 refs, 5 figs

  1. Temperature and salinity profiles from CTD casts from NOAA Ship RONALD H. BROWN in the SE Pacific (limit -140 W) as part of the East Pacific Investigations of Climate Processes in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere from 2001-02-01 to 2001-03-08 (NODC Accession 0000660)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — CTD and other data were collected from NOAA Ship RONALD H. BROWN in the SE Pacific (limit-140 W) from from 01 February 2001 to 08 March 2001. CTD data consist of...

  2. Current meter components and other data from FIXED PLATFORMS from the NW Atlantic (limit-40 W) and others locations as part of the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) and other projects from 1984-02-26 to 1986-06-01 (NODC Accession 9100048)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter components data were collected from FIXED PLATFORMS in the NW Atlantic (limit-40 W) and others locations from 26 February 1984 to 01 June 1986. Data...

  3. Temperature and salinity profiles from CTD casts from NOAA Ship RONALD H. BROWN in the NE and SE Pacific as part of the East Pacific Investigations of Climate Processes in support of the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere from 2001-09-05 to 2001-10-25 (NODC Accession 0000657)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — CTD and other data were collected from NOAA Ship RONALD H. BROWN in the NE and SE Pacific from 05 September 2001 to 25 October 2001. CTD data consist of temperature...

  4. California's Snow Gun and its implications for mass balance predictions under greenhouse warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howat, I.; Snyder, M.; Tulaczyk, S.; Sloan, L.

    2003-12-01

    balance modeling. Firstly, the link between amplification of orographic precipitation and the temporal evolution of ocean-climate oscillations indicates that prediction of future mass balance trends requires consideration of the timing and amplitude of such oscillations. Only recently have ocean-atmosphere models begun to realistically produce such temporal variability. Secondly, the steepening snow mass-balance elevation-gradient associated with the "Snow Gun" implies greater spatial variability in balance with warming. In a warming climate, orographic processes at a scale finer that the highest resolution RCM (>20km grid) become increasingly important and predictions based on lower elevations become increasingly inaccurate for higher elevations. Therefore, thermodynamic interaction between atmospheric heat, moisture and topography must be included in downscaling techniques. In order to demonstrate the importance of the thermodynamic downscaling in mass balance predictions, we nest a high-resolution (100m grid), coupled Orographic Precipitation and Surface Energy balance Model (OPSEM) into the RegC2.5 RCM (40 km grid) and compare results. We apply this nesting technique to Mt. Shasta, California, an area of high topography (~4000m) relative to its RegCM2.5 grid elevation (1289m). These models compute average April snow volume under present and doubled-present Atmospheric CO2 concentrations. While the RegCM2.5 regional model predicts an 83% decrease in April SWE, OPSEM predicts a 16% increase. These results indicate that thermodynamic interactions between the atmosphere and topography at sub- RCM grid resolution must be considered in mass balance models.

  5. An Initial Assessment of the Impact of CYGNSS Ocean Surface Wind Assimilation on Navy Global and Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, N. L.; Tsu, J.; Swadley, S. D.

    2017-12-01

    analyses and forecasts with in-situ observations and analyses from other NWP centers (e.g. ECMWF and GFS). [i] NAVy Global Environmental Model [ii] COAMPS® is a registered trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory for the Navy's Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System. [iii] NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System

  6. Gestural coupling and social cognition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michael, John; Krueger, Joel William

    2012-01-01

    Social cognition researchers have become increasingly interested in the ways that behavioral, physiological, and neural coupling facilitate social interaction and interpersonal understanding. We distinguish two ways of conceptualizing the role of such coupling processes in social cognition: strong...... an essential enabling feature for social interaction and interpersonal understanding more generally and thus ought to exhibit severe deficits in these areas. We challenge SI's prediction and show how MS cases offer compelling reasons for instead adopting MI's pluralistic model of social interaction...... and interpersonal understanding. We conclude that investigations of coupling processes within social interaction should inform rather than marginalize or eliminate investigation of higher-level individual cognition...

  7. Coherence Phenomena in Coupled Optical Resonators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, D. D.; Chang, H.

    2004-01-01

    We predict a variety of photonic coherence phenomena in passive and active coupled ring resonators. Specifically, the effective dispersive and absorptive steady-state response of coupled resonators is derived, and used to determine the conditions for coupled-resonator-induced transparency and absorption, lasing without gain, and cooperative cavity emission. These effects rely on coherent photon trapping, in direct analogy with coherent population trapping phenomena in atomic systems. We also demonstrate that the coupled-mode equations are formally identical to the two-level atom Schrodinger equation in the rotating-wave approximation, and use this result for the analysis of coupled-resonator photon dynamics. Notably, because these effects are predicted directly from coupled-mode theory, they are not unique to atoms, but rather are fundamental to systems of coherently coupled resonators.

  8. Precise determination of the mass of the Higgs boson and tests of compatibility of its couplings with the standard model predictions using proton collisions at 7 and 8 TeV

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khachatryan, V.; Sirunyan, A.M.; Tumasyan, A. [Yerevan Physics Institute, Yerevan (Armenia); Collaboration: The CMS Collaboration; and others

    2015-05-15

    Properties of the Higgs boson with mass near 125 GeV are measured in proton-proton collisions with the CMS experiment at the LHC. Comprehensive sets of production and decay measurements are combined. The decay channels include γγ, ZZ, WW, ττ, bb, and μμ pairs. The data samples were collected in 2011 and 2012 and correspond to integrated luminosities of up to 5.1 fb{sup -1} at 7 TeV and up to 19.7 fb{sup -1} at 8 TeV. From the high-resolution γγ and ZZ channels, the mass of the Higgs boson is determined to be 125.02{sub -0.27}{sup +0.26}(stat){sub -0.15}{sup +0.14}(syst) GeV. For this mass value, the event yields obtained in the different analyses tagging specific decay channels and production mechanisms are consistent with those expected for the standard model Higgs boson. The combined best-fit signal relative to the standard model expectation is 1.00 ±0.09(stat){sub -0.07}{sup +0.08}(theo) ±0.07 (syst) at the measured mass. The couplings of the Higgs boson are probed for deviations in magnitude from the standard model predictions in multiple ways, including searches for invisible and undetected decays. No significant deviations are found. (orig.)

  9. Precise determination of the mass of the Higgs boson and tests of compatibility of its couplings with the standard model predictions using proton collisions at 7 and 8 TeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khachatryan, V.; Sirunyan, A.M.; Tumasyan, A.

    2015-01-01

    Properties of the Higgs boson with mass near 125 GeV are measured in proton-proton collisions with the CMS experiment at the LHC. Comprehensive sets of production and decay measurements are combined. The decay channels include γγ, ZZ, WW, ττ, bb, and μμ pairs. The data samples were collected in 2011 and 2012 and correspond to integrated luminosities of up to 5.1 fb -1 at 7 TeV and up to 19.7 fb -1 at 8 TeV. From the high-resolution γγ and ZZ channels, the mass of the Higgs boson is determined to be 125.02 -0.27 +0.26 (stat) -0.15 +0.14 (syst) GeV. For this mass value, the event yields obtained in the different analyses tagging specific decay channels and production mechanisms are consistent with those expected for the standard model Higgs boson. The combined best-fit signal relative to the standard model expectation is 1.00 ±0.09(stat) -0.07 +0.08 (theo) ±0.07 (syst) at the measured mass. The couplings of the Higgs boson are probed for deviations in magnitude from the standard model predictions in multiple ways, including searches for invisible and undetected decays. No significant deviations are found. (orig.)

  10. Precise determination of the mass of the Higgs boson and tests of compatibility of its couplings with the standard model predictions using proton collisions at 7 and 8[Formula: see text].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khachatryan, V; Sirunyan, A M; Tumasyan, A; Adam, W; Bergauer, T; Dragicevic, M; Erö, J; Friedl, M; Frühwirth, R; Ghete, V M; Hartl, C; Hörmann, N; Hrubec, J; Jeitler, M; Kiesenhofer, W; Knünz, V; Krammer, M; Krätschmer, I; Liko, D; Mikulec, I; Rabady, D; Rahbaran, B; Rohringer, H; Schöfbeck, R; Strauss, J; Treberer-Treberspurg, W; Waltenberger, W; Wulz, C-E; Mossolov, V; Shumeiko, N; Suarez Gonzalez, J; Alderweireldt, S; Bansal, S; Cornelis, T; De Wolf, E A; Janssen, X; Knutsson, A; Lauwers, J; Luyckx, S; Ochesanu, S; Rougny, R; Van De Klundert, M; Van Haevermaet, H; Van Mechelen, P; Van Remortel, N; Van Spilbeeck, A; Blekman, F; Blyweert, S; D'Hondt, J; Daci, N; Heracleous, N; Keaveney, J; Lowette, S; Maes, M; Olbrechts, A; Python, Q; Strom, D; Tavernier, S; Van Doninck, W; Van Mulders, P; Van Onsem, G P; Villella, I; Caillol, C; Clerbaux, B; De Lentdecker, G; Dobur, D; Favart, L; Gay, A P R; Grebenyuk, A; Léonard, A; Mohammadi, A; Perniè, L; Randle-Conde, A; Reis, T; Seva, T; Thomas, L; Vander Velde, C; Vanlaer, P; Wang, J; Zenoni, F; Adler, V; Beernaert, K; Benucci, L; Cimmino, A; Costantini, S; Crucy, S; Fagot, A; Garcia, G; Mccartin, J; Ocampo Rios, A A; Poyraz, D; Ryckbosch, D; Salva Diblen, S; Sigamani, M; Strobbe, N; Thyssen, F; Tytgat, M; Yazgan, E; Zaganidis, N; Basegmez, S; Beluffi, C; Bruno, G; Castello, R; Caudron, A; Ceard, L; Da Silveira, G G; Delaere, C; du Pree, T; Favart, D; Forthomme, L; Giammanco, A; Hollar, J; Jafari, A; Jez, P; Komm, M; Lemaitre, V; Nuttens, C; Pagano, D; Perrini, L; Pin, A; Piotrzkowski, K; Popov, A; Quertenmont, L; Selvaggi, M; Vidal Marono, M; Vizan Garcia, J M; Beliy, N; Caebergs, T; Daubie, E; Hammad, G H; Júnior, W L Aldá; Alves, G A; Brito, L; Correa Martins Junior, M; Martins, T Dos Reis; Molina, J; Mora Herrera, C; Pol, M E; Teles, P Rebello; Carvalho, W; Chinellato, J; Custódio, A; Da Costa, E M; De Jesus Damiao, D; De Oliveira Martins, C; Fonseca De Souza, S; Malbouisson, H; Matos Figueiredo, D; Mundim, L; Nogima, H; Prado Da Silva, W L; Santaolalla, J; Santoro, A; Sznajder, A; Tonelli Manganote, E J; Vilela Pereira, A; Bernardes, C A; Dogra, S; Fernandez Perez Tomei, T R; Gregores, E M; Mercadante, P G; Novaes, S F; Padula, Sandra S; Aleksandrov, A; Genchev, V; Hadjiiska, R; Iaydjiev, P; Marinov, A; Piperov, S; Rodozov, M; Stoykova, S; Sultanov, G; Vutova, M; Dimitrov, A; Glushkov, I; Litov, L; Pavlov, B; Petkov, P; Bian, J G; Chen, G M; Chen, H S; Chen, M; Cheng, T; Du, R; Jiang, C H; Plestina, R; Romeo, F; Tao, J; Wang, Z; Asawatangtrakuldee, C; Ban, Y; Liu, S; Mao, Y; Qian, S J; Wang, D; Xu, Z; Zhang, F; Zhang, L; Zou, W; Avila, C; Cabrera, A; Chaparro Sierra, L F; Florez, C; Gomez, J P; Gomez Moreno, B; Sanabria, J C; Godinovic, N; Lelas, D; Polic, D; Puljak, I; Antunovic, Z; Kovac, M; Brigljevic, V; Kadija, K; Luetic, J; Mekterovic, D; Sudic, L; Attikis, A; Mavromanolakis, G; Mousa, J; Nicolaou, C; Ptochos, F; Razis, P A; Rykaczewski, H; Bodlak, M; Finger, M; Finger, M; Assran, Y; Ellithi Kame, A; Mahmoud, M A; Radi, A; Kadastik, M; Murumaa, M; Raidal, M; Tiko, A; Eerola, P; Voutilainen, M; Härkönen, J; Heikkilä, J K; Karimäki, V; Kinnunen, R; Kortelainen, M J; Lampén, T; Lassila-Perini, K; Lehti, S; Lindén, T; Luukka, P; Mäenpää, T; Peltola, T; Tuominen, E; Tuominiemi, J; Tuovinen, E; Wendland, L; Talvitie, J; Tuuva, T; Besancon, M; Couderc, F; Dejardin, M; Denegri, D; Fabbro, B; Faure, J L; Favaro, C; Ferri, F; Ganjour, S; Givernaud, A; Gras, P; Hamel de Monchenault, G; Jarry, P; Locci, E; Malcles, J; Rander, J; Rosowsky, A; Titov, M; Baffioni, S; Beaudette, F; Busson, P; Chapon, E; Charlot, C; Dahms, T; Dobrzynski, L; Filipovic, N; Florent, A; Granier de Cassagnac, R; Mastrolorenzo, L; Miné, P; Naranjo, I N; Nguyen, M; Ochando, C; Ortona, G; Paganini, P; Regnard, S; Salerno, R; Sauvan, J B; Sirois, Y; Veelken, C; Yilmaz, Y; Zabi, A; Agram, J-L; Andrea, J; Aubin, A; Bloch, D; Brom, J-M; Chabert, E C; Collard, C; Conte, E; Fontaine, J-C; Gelé, D; Goerlach, U; Goetzmann, C; Le Bihan, A-C; Skovpen, K; 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Mulhearn, M; Pellett, D; Pilot, J; Ricci-Tam, F; Shalhout, S; Smith, J; Squires, M; Stolp, D; Tripathi, M; Wilbur, S; Yohay, R; Cousins, R; Everaerts, P; Farrell, C; Hauser, J; Ignatenko, M; Rakness, G; Takasugi, E; Valuev, V; Weber, M; Burt, K; Clare, R; Ellison, J; Gary, J W; Hanson, G; Heilman, J; Ivova Rikova, M; Jandir, P; Kennedy, E; Lacroix, F; Long, O R; Luthra, A; Malberti, M; Negrete, M Olmedo; Shrinivas, A; Sumowidagdo, S; Wimpenny, S; Branson, J G; Cerati, G B; Cittolin, S; D'Agnolo, R T; Holzner, A; Kelley, R; Klein, D; Letts, J; Macneill, I; Olivito, D; Padhi, S; Palmer, C; Pieri, M; Sani, M; Sharma, V; Simon, S; Tadel, M; Tu, Y; Vartak, A; Welke, C; Würthwein, F; Yagil, A; Zevi Della Porta, G; Barge, D; Bradmiller-Feld, J; Campagnari, C; Danielson, T; Dishaw, A; Dutta, V; Flowers, K; Franco Sevilla, M; Geffert, P; George, C; Golf, F; Gouskos, L; Incandela, J; Justus, C; Mccoll, N; Mullin, S D; Richman, J; Stuart, D; To, W; West, C; Yoo, J; Apresyan, A; Bornheim, A; Bunn, J; Chen, Y; Duarte, J; Mott, A; Newman, H B; Pena, C; Pierini, M; Spiropulu, M; Vlimant, R; Wilkinson, R; Xie, S; Zhu, R Y; Azzolini, V; Calamba, A; Carlson, B; Ferguson, T; Iiyama, Y; Paulini, M; Russ, J; Vogel, H; Vorobiev, I; Cumalat, J P; Ford, W T; Gaz, A; Krohn, M; Luiggi Lopez, E; Nauenberg, U; Smith, J G; Stenson, K; Wagner, S R; Alexander, J; Chatterjee, A; Chaves, J; Chu, J; Dittmer, S; Eggert, N; Mirman, N; Nicolas Kaufman, G; Patterson, J R; Ryd, A; Salvati, E; Skinnari, L; Sun, W; Teo, W D; Thom, J; Thompson, J; Tucker, J; Weng, Y; Winstrom, L; Wittich, P; Winn, D; Abdullin, S; Albrow, M; Anderson, J; Apollinari, G; Bauerdick, L A T; Beretvas, A; Berryhill, J; Bhat, P C; Bolla, G; Burkett, K; Butler, J N; Cheung, H W K; Chlebana, F; Cihangir, S; Elvira, V D; Fisk, I; Freeman, J; Gottschalk, E; Gray, L; Green, D; Grünendahl, S; Gutsche, O; Hanlon, J; Hare, D; Harris, R M; Hirschauer, J; Hooberman, B; Jindariani, S; Johnson, M; Joshi, U; Klima, B; Kreis, B; Kwan, S; Linacre, J; Lincoln, D; Lipton, R; Liu, T; Lopes De Sá, R; Lykken, J; Maeshima, K; Marraffino, J M; Martinez Outschoorn, V I; Maruyama, S; Mason, D; McBride, P; Merkel, P; Mishra, K; Mrenna, S; Nahn, S; Newman-Holmes, C; O'Dell, V; Prokofyev, O; Sexton-Kennedy, E; Soha, A; Spalding, W J; Spiegel, L; Taylor, L; Tkaczyk, S; Tran, N V; Uplegger, L; Vaandering, E W; Vidal, R; Whitbeck, A; Whitmore, J; Yang, F; Acosta, D; Avery, P; Bortignon, P; Bourilkov, D; Carver, M; Curry, D; Das, S; De Gruttola, M; Di Giovanni, G P; Field, R D; Fisher, M; Furic, I K; Hugon, J; Konigsberg, J; Korytov, A; Kypreos, T; Low, J F; Matchev, K; Mei, H; Milenovic, P; Mitselmakher, G; Muniz, L; Rinkevicius, A; Shchutska, L; Snowball, M; Sperka, D; Yelton, J; Zakaria, M; Hewamanage, S; Linn, S; Markowitz, P; Martinez, G; Rodriguez, J L; Adams, J R; Adams, T; Askew, A; Bochenek, J; Diamond, B; Haas, J; Hagopian, S; Hagopian, V; Johnson, K F; Prosper, H; Veeraraghavan, V; Weinberg, M; Baarmand, M M; Hohlmann, M; Kalakhety, H; Yumiceva, F; Adams, M R; Apanasevich, L; Berry, D; Betts, R R; Bucinskaite, I; Cavanaugh, R; Evdokimov, O; Gauthier, L; Gerber, C E; Hofman, D J; Kurt, P; O'Brien, C; Sandoval Gonzalez, I D; Silkworth, C; Turner, P; Varelas, N; Bilki, B; Clarida, W; Dilsiz, K; Haytmyradov, M; Khristenko, V; Merlo, J-P; Mermerkaya, H; Mestvirishvili, A; Moeller, A; Nachtman, J; Ogul, H; Onel, Y; Ozok, F; Penzo, A; Rahmat, R; Sen, S; Tan, P; Tiras, E; Wetzel, J; Yi, K; Anderson, I; Barnett, B A; Blumenfeld, B; Bolognesi, S; Fehling, D; Gritsan, A V; Maksimovic, P; Martin, C; Swartz, M; Xiao, M; Baringer, P; Bean, A; Benelli, G; Bruner, C; Gray, J; Kenny, R P; Majumder, D; Malek, M; Murray, M; Noonan, D; Sanders, S; Sekaric, J; Stringer, R; Wang, Q; Wood, J S; Chakaberia, I; Ivanov, A; Kaadze, K; Khalil, S; Makouski, M; Maravin, Y; Saini, L K; Skhirtladze, N; Svintradze, I; Gronberg, J; Lange, D; Rebassoo, F; Wright, D; Baden, A; Belloni, A; Calvert, B; Eno, S C; Gomez, J A; Hadley, N J; Jabeen, S; Kellogg, R G; Kolberg, T; Lu, Y; Mignerey, A C; Pedro, K; Skuja, A; Tonjes, M B; Tonwar, S C; Apyan, A; Barbieri, R; Bierwagen, K; Busza, W; Cali, I A; Di Matteo, L; Gomez Ceballos, G; Goncharov, M; Gulhan, D; Klute, M; Lai, Y S; Lee, Y-J; Levin, A; Luckey, P D; Paus, C; Ralph, D; Roland, C; Roland, G; Stephans, G S F; Sumorok, K; Velicanu, D; Veverka, J; Wyslouch, B; Yang, M; Zanetti, M; Zhukova, V; Dahmes, B; Gude, A; Kao, S C; Klapoetke, K; Kubota, Y; Mans, J; Nourbakhsh, S; Rusack, R; Singovsky, A; Tambe, N; Turkewitz, J; Acosta, J G; Oliveros, S; Avdeeva, E; Bloom, K; Bose, S; Claes, D R; Dominguez, A; Gonzalez Suarez, R; Keller, J; Knowlton, D; Kravchenko, I; Lazo-Flores, J; Meier, F; Ratnikov, F; Snow, G R; Zvada, M; Dolen, J; Godshalk, A; Iashvili, I; Kharchilava, A; Kumar, A; Rappoccio, S; Alverson, G; Barberis, E; Baumgartel, D; Chasco, M; Massironi, A; Morse, D M; Nash, D; Orimoto, T; Trocino, D; Wang, R J; Wood, D; Zhang, J; Hahn, K A; Kubik, A; Mucia, N; Odell, N; Pollack, B; Pozdnyakov, A; Schmitt, M; Stoynev, S; Sung, K; Velasco, M; Won, S; Brinkerhoff, A; Chan, K M; Drozdetskiy, A; Hildreth, M; Jessop, C; Karmgard, D J; Kellams, N; Lannon, K; Lynch, S; Marinelli, N; Musienko, Y; Pearson, T; Planer, M; Ruchti, R; Smith, G; Valls, N; Wayne, M; Wolf, M; Woodard, A; Antonelli, L; Brinson, J; Bylsma, B; Durkin, L S; Flowers, S; Hart, A; Hill, C; Hughes, R; Kotov, K; Ling, T Y; Luo, W; Puigh, D; Rodenburg, M; Winer, B L; Wolfe, H; Wulsin, H W; Driga, O; Elmer, P; Hardenbrook, J; Hebda, P; Koay, S A; Lujan, P; Marlow, D; Medvedeva, T; Mooney, M; Olsen, J; Piroué, P; Quan, X; Saka, H; Stickland, D; Tully, C; Werner, J S; Zuranski, A; Brownson, E; Malik, S; Mendez, H; Ramirez Vargas, J E; Barnes, V E; Benedetti, D; Bortoletto, D; Gutay, L; Hu, Z; Jha, M K; Jones, M; Jung, K; Kress, M; Leonardo, N; Miller, D H; Neumeister, N; Primavera, F; Radburn-Smith, B C; Shi, X; Shipsey, I; Silvers, D; Svyatkovskiy, A; Wang, F; Xie, W; Xu, L; Zablocki, J; Parashar, N; Stupak, J; Adair, A; Akgun, B; Ecklund, K M; Geurts, F J M; Li, W; Michlin, B; Padley, B P; Redjimi, R; Roberts, J; Zabel, J; Betchart, B; Bodek, A; de Barbaro, P; Demina, R; Eshaq, Y; Ferbel, T; Galanti, M; Garcia-Bellido, A; Goldenzweig, P; Han, J; Harel, A; Hindrichs, O; Khukhunaishvili, A; Korjenevski, S; Petrillo, G; Verzetti, M; Vishnevskiy, D; Ciesielski, R; Demortier, L; Goulianos, K; Mesropian, C; Arora, S; Barker, A; Chou, J P; Contreras-Campana, C; Contreras-Campana, E; Duggan, D; Ferencek, D; Gershtein, Y; Gray, R; Halkiadakis, E; Hidas, D; Kaplan, S; Lath, A; Panwalkar, S; Park, M; Salur, S; Schnetzer, S; Sheffield, D; Somalwar, S; Stone, R; Thomas, S; Thomassen, P; Walker, M; Rose, K; Spanier, S; York, A; Bouhali, O; Castaneda Hernandez, A; Dalchenko, M; De Mattia, M; Dildick, S; Eusebi, R; Flanagan, W; Gilmore, J; Kamon, T; Khotilovich, V; Krutelyov, V; Montalvo, R; Osipenkov, I; Pakhotin, Y; Patel, R; Perloff, A; Roe, J; Rose, A; Safonov, A; Suarez, I; Tatarinov, A; Ulmer, K A; Akchurin, N; Cowden, C; Damgov, J; Dragoiu, C; Dudero, P R; Faulkner, J; Kovitanggoon, K; Kunori, S; Lee, S W; Libeiro, T; Volobouev, I; Appelt, E; Delannoy, A G; Greene, S; Gurrola, A; Johns, W; Maguire, C; Mao, Y; Melo, A; Sharma, M; Sheldon, P; Snook, B; Tuo, S; Velkovska, J; Arenton, M W; Boutle, S; Cox, B; Francis, B; Goodell, J; Hirosky, R; Ledovskoy, A; Li, H; Lin, C; Neu, C; Wolfe, E; Wood, J; Clarke, C; Harr, R; Karchin, P E; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, C; Lamichhane, P; Sturdy, J; Belknap, D A; Carlsmith, D; Cepeda, M; Dasu, S; Dodd, L; Duric, S; Friis, E; Hall-Wilton, R; Herndon, M; Hervé, A; Klabbers, P; Lanaro, A; Lazaridis, C; Levine, A; Loveless, R; Mohapatra, A; Ojalvo, I; Perry, T; Pierro, G A; Polese, G; Ross, I; Sarangi, T; Savin, A; Smith, W H; Taylor, D; Vuosalo, C; Woods, N; Roinishvili, V

    Properties of the Higgs boson with mass near 125[Formula: see text] are measured in proton-proton collisions with the CMS experiment at the LHC. Comprehensive sets of production and decay measurements are combined. The decay channels include [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text] pairs. The data samples were collected in 2011 and 2012 and correspond to integrated luminosities of up to 5.1[Formula: see text] at 7[Formula: see text] and up to 19.7[Formula: see text] at 8[Formula: see text]. From the high-resolution [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] channels, the mass of the Higgs boson is determined to be [Formula: see text]. For this mass value, the event yields obtained in the different analyses tagging specific decay channels and production mechanisms are consistent with those expected for the standard model Higgs boson. The combined best-fit signal relative to the standard model expectation is [Formula: see text] at the measured mass. The couplings of the Higgs boson are probed for deviations in magnitude from the standard model predictions in multiple ways, including searches for invisible and undetected decays. No significant deviations are found.

  11. Dark coupling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gavela, M.B.; Hernández, D.; Honorez, L. Lopez; Mena, O.; Rigolin, S.

    2009-01-01

    The two dark sectors of the universe—dark matter and dark energy—may interact with each other. Background and linear density perturbation evolution equations are developed for a generic coupling. We then establish the general conditions necessary to obtain models free from non-adiabatic instabilities. As an application, we consider a viable universe in which the interaction strength is proportional to the dark energy density. The scenario does not exhibit ''phantom crossing'' and is free from instabilities, including early ones. A sizeable interaction strength is compatible with combined WMAP, HST, SN, LSS and H(z) data. Neutrino mass and/or cosmic curvature are allowed to be larger than in non-interacting models. Our analysis sheds light as well on unstable scenarios previously proposed

  12. Intermodel spread of the double-ITCZ bias in coupled GCMs tied to land surface temperature in AMIP GCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Wenyu; Xie, Shang-Ping

    2017-08-01

    Global climate models (GCMs) have long suffered from biases of excessive tropical precipitation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The severity of the double-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) bias, defined here as the interhemispheric difference in zonal mean tropical precipitation, varies strongly among models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Models with a more severe double-ITCZ bias feature warmer tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in the SH, coupled with weaker southeast trades. While previous studies focus on coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions, here we show that the intermodel spread in the severity of the double-ITCZ bias is closely related to land surface temperature biases, which can be further traced back to those in the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. By perturbing land temperature in models, we demonstrate that cooler land can indeed lead to a more severe double-ITCZ bias by inducing the above coupled SST-trade wind pattern in the tropics. The response to land temperature can be consistently explained from both the dynamic and energetic perspectives. Although this intermodel spread from the land temperature variation does not account for the ensemble model mean double-ITCZ bias, identifying the land temperature effect provides insights into simulating a realistic ITCZ for the right reasons.

  13. The role of atmospheric diagnosis and Big Data science in improving hydroclimatic extreme prediction and the merits of climate informed prediction for future water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Mengqian; Lall, Upmanu

    2017-04-01

    The threats that hydroclimatic extremes pose to sustainable development, safety and operation of infrastructure are both severe and growing. Recent heavy precipitation triggered flood events in many regions and increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation suggested by various climate projections highlight the importance of understanding the associated hydrometeorological patterns and space-time variability of such extreme events, and developing a new approach to improve predictability with a better estimation of uncertainty. This clear objective requires the optimal utility of Big Data analytics on multi-source datasets to extract informative predictors from the complex ocean-atmosphere coupled system and develop a statistical and physical based framework. The proposed presentation includes the essence of our selected works in the past two years, as part of our Global Floods Initiatives. Our approach for an improved extreme prediction begins with a better understanding of the associated atmospheric circulation patterns, under the influence and regulation of slowly changing oceanic boundary conditions [Lu et al., 2013, 2016a; Lu and Lall, 2016]. The study of the associated atmospheric circulation pattern and the regulation of teleconnected climate signals adopted data science techniques and statistical modeling recognizing the nonstationarity and nonlinearity of the system, as the underlying statistical assumptions of the classical extreme value frequency analysis are challenged in hydroclimatic studies. There are two main factors that are considered important for understanding how future flood risk will change. One is the consideration of moisture holding capacity as a function of temperature, as suggested by Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The other is the strength of the convergence or convection associated with extreme precipitation. As convergence or convection gets stronger, rain rates can be expected to increase if the moisture is available. For

  14. Reduction of couplings and its application in particle physics, finite theories, Higgs and top mass predictions a guided tour through thirty years of research based on twenty-three articles

    CERN Document Server

    Kubo, Jisuke; Heinemeyer, Sven; Mondragon, Myriam; Piguet, Olivier; Sibold, Klaus; Zoupanos, George; Zimmermann, Wolfhart

    2014-01-01

    In this report we tell the story of the notion "reduction of couplings" as we witnessed it in the course of time. Born as an innocent child of renormalization theory it first served the study of asymptotic behavior of several couplings in a given model. Reduced couplings appeared as functions of a primary one, compatible with the renormalization group equation and thus solutions of a specific set of ordinary differential equations. If these functions have the form of power series the respective theories resemble standard renormalizable ones and thus widen considerably the area covered until then by symmetries as a tool for constraining the number of couplings consistently. Still on the more abstract level reducing couplings enabled one to construct theories with beta-functions vanishing to all orders of perturbation theory. Reduction of couplings became physicswise truely interesting and phenomenologically important when applied to the standard model and its possible extensions. In particular in the context o...

  15. Proteomic-coupled-network analysis of T877A-androgen receptor interactomes can predict clinical prostate cancer outcomes between White (non-Hispanic and African-American groups.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naif Zaman

    Full Text Available The androgen receptor (AR remains an important contributor to the neoplastic evolution of prostate cancer (CaP. CaP progression is linked to several somatic AR mutational changes that endow upon the AR dramatic gain-of-function properties. One of the most common somatic mutations identified is Thr877-to-Ala (T877A, located in the ligand-binding domain, that results in a receptor capable of promiscuous binding and activation by a variety of steroid hormones and ligands including estrogens, progestins, glucocorticoids, and several anti-androgens. In an attempt to further define somatic mutated AR gain-of-function properties, as a consequence of its promiscuous ligand binding, we undertook a proteomic/network analysis approach to characterize the protein interactome of the mutant T877A-AR in LNCaP cells under eight different ligand-specific treatments (dihydrotestosterone, mibolerone, R1881, testosterone, estradiol, progesterone, dexamethasone, and cyproterone acetate. In extending the analysis of our multi-ligand complexes of the mutant T877A-AR we observed significant enrichment of specific complexes between normal and primary prostatic tumors, which were furthermore correlated with known clinical outcomes. Further analysis of certain mutant T877A-AR complexes showed specific population preferences distinguishing primary prostatic disease between white (non-Hispanic vs. African-American males. Moreover, these cancer-related AR-protein complexes demonstrated predictive survival outcomes specific to CaP, and not for breast, lung, lymphoma or medulloblastoma cancers. Our study, by coupling data generated by our proteomics to network analysis of clinical samples, has helped to define real and novel biological pathways in complicated gain-of-function AR complex systems.

  16. Temporality of couple conflict and relationship perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Matthew D; Horne, Rebecca M; Hardy, Nathan R; Anderson, Jared R

    2018-05-03

    Using 5 waves of longitudinal survey data gathered from 3,405 couples, the present study investigates the temporal associations between self-reported couple conflict (frequency and each partner's constructive and withdrawing behaviors) and relationship perceptions (satisfaction and perceived instability). Autoregressive cross-lagged model results revealed couple conflict consistently predicted future relationship perceptions: More frequent conflict and withdrawing behaviors and fewer constructive behaviors foretold reduced satisfaction and conflict frequency and withdrawal heightened perceived instability. Relationship perceptions also shaped future conflict, but in surprising ways: Perceptions of instability were linked with less frequent conflict, and male partner instability predicted fewer withdrawing behaviors for female partners. Higher satisfaction from male partners also predicted more frequent and less constructive conflict behavior in the future. These findings illustrate complex bidirectional linkages between relationship perceptions and couple conflict behaviors in the development of couple relations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Flow prediction models using macroclimatic variables and multivariate statistical techniques in the Cauca River Valley

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carvajal Escobar Yesid; Munoz, Flor Matilde

    2007-01-01

    The project this centred in the revision of the state of the art of the ocean-atmospheric phenomena that you affect the Colombian hydrology especially The Phenomenon Enos that causes a socioeconomic impact of first order in our country, it has not been sufficiently studied; therefore it is important to approach the thematic one, including the variable macroclimates associated to the Enos in the analyses of water planning. The analyses include revision of statistical techniques of analysis of consistency of hydrological data with the objective of conforming a database of monthly flow of the river reliable and homogeneous Cauca. Statistical methods are used (Analysis of data multivariante) specifically The analysis of principal components to involve them in the development of models of prediction of flows monthly means in the river Cauca involving the Lineal focus as they are the model autoregressive AR, ARX and Armax and the focus non lineal Net Artificial Network.

  18. A Class Coupling Analyzer for Java Programs

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU

    Increasingly, object-oriented measurements are being used to evaluate and predict ... and architecture investigations on already developed systems. ... coupling during design because we know ... applications and the projects that build them.

  19. Developmental Issues in Counseling With Couples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seligman, Linda; Deutsch, Marjorie B.

    Marriages, just like the individuals in them, go through stages of development. Understanding these relatively predictable stages can be helpful to couples, by allaying apprehension, promoting preparation for change, and putting fluctuations into perspective. Research on marital stages and experiences in counseling couples suggest that marriages…

  20. Transient chaos in weakly coupled Josephson junctions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch, B P; Bruhn, B

    1988-01-01

    This paper considers periodic excitations and coupling of nonlinear Josephson oscillators. The Melnikov method is used to prove the existence of horseshoes in the dynamics. The coupling of two systems yields a reduction of the chaos threshold in comparison with the corresponding threshold of a single system. For some selected parameter values the theoretical predictions are checked by numerical methods.

  1. Fertility prognosis for infertile couples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bostofte, E; Bagger, P; Michael, A

    1993-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To develop a fertility prognosis model for infertile couples. DESIGN: Prospective follow-up study. PARTICIPANTS: In the period November 30, 1977 to June 1, 1985, 321 consecutive couples were investigated for infertility at Hvidovre University Hospital. Investigation of the female...... MEASURE: The Cox regression model was used to predict the time required to conceive based on informations provided by fertility investigations. RESULTS: Three of 16 prognostic variables (the period of infertility, the female infertility factor, and the P-test) possess significant prognostic information...

  2. Climatological implications of Australian-Antarctic separation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warnaar, J.

    2006-01-01

    We face a major challenge in learning how to quantify the impact of the anticipated global warming before it occurs. It is widely recognized that the application of coupled ocean-atmosphere global circulation models (GCMs) offers a sophisticated method of predicting climate. However, while GCMs

  3. Poleward propagation of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations in a coupled model: role of internal processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ajayamohan, R.S. [University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, P.O. Box 3065, Victoria, BC (Canada); Annamalai, H.; Hafner, Jan [University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu (United States); Luo, Jing-Jia [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Frontier Research Centre for Global Change, Yokohama (Japan); Yamagata, Toshio [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Frontier Research Centre for Global Change, Yokohama (Japan); The University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Tokyo (Japan)

    2011-09-15

    The study compares the simulated poleward migration characteristics of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations (BSISO) in a suite of coupled ocean-atmospheric model sensitivity integrations. The sensitivity experiments are designed in such a manner to allow full coupling in specific ocean basins but forced by temporally varying monthly climatological sea surface temperature (SST) adopted from the fully coupled model control runs (ES10). While the local air-sea interaction is suppressed in the tropical Indian Ocean and allowed in the other oceans in the ESdI run, it is suppressed in the tropical Pacific and allowed in the other oceans in the ESdP run. Our diagnostics show that the basic mean state in precipitation and easterly vertical shear as well as the BSISO properties remain unchanged due to either inclusion or exclusion of local air-sea interaction. In the presence of realistic easterly vertical shear, the continuous emanation of Rossby waves from the equatorial convection is trapped over the monsoon region that enables the poleward propagation of BSISO anomalies in all the model sensitivity experiments. To explore the internal processes that maintain the tropospheric moisture anomalies ahead of BSISO precipitation anomalies, moisture and moist static energy budgets are performed. In all model experiments, advection of anomalous moisture by climatological winds anchors the moisture anomalies that in turn promote the northward migration of BSISO precipitation. While the results indicate the need for realistic simulation of all aspects of the basic state, our model results need to be taken with caution because in the ECHAM family of coupled models the internal variance at intraseasonal timescales is indeed very high, and therefore local air-sea interactions may not play a pivotal role. (orig.)

  4. Coupled processes in repository sealing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Case, J.B.; Kelsall, P.C.

    1985-01-01

    The significance of coupled processes in repository sealing is evaluated. In most repository designs, shaft seals will be located in areas of relatively low temperature perturbation, in which case the coupling of temperature with stress and permeability may be less significant than the coupling between stress and permeability that occurs during excavation. Constitutive relationships between stress and permeability are reviewed for crystalline rock and rocksalt. These provide a basis for predicting the development of disturbed zones near excavations. Field case histories of the degree of disturbance are presented for two contrasting rock types - Stripa granite and Southeastern New Mexico rocksalt. The results of field investigations in both rock types confirm that hydraulic conductivity or permeability is stress dependent, and that shaft seal performance may be related to the degree that stresses are perturbed and restored near the seal

  5. A Realization of Bias Correction Method in the GMAO Coupled System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yehui; Koster, Randal; Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried; Suarez, Max

    2018-01-01

    Over the past several decades, a tremendous effort has been made to improve model performance in the simulation of the climate system. The cold or warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the tropics is still a problem common to most coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs). The precipitation biases in CGCMs are also accompanied by SST and surface wind biases. The deficiencies and biases over the equatorial oceans through their influence on the Walker circulation likely contribute the precipitation biases over land surfaces. In this study, we introduce an approach in the CGCM modeling to correct model biases. This approach utilizes the history of the model's short-term forecasting errors and their seasonal dependence to modify model's tendency term and to minimize its climate drift. The study shows that such an approach removes most of model climate biases. A number of other aspects of the model simulation (e.g. extratropical transient activities) are also improved considerably due to the imposed pre-processed initial 3-hour model drift corrections. Because many regional biases in the GEOS-5 CGCM are common amongst other current models, our approaches and findings are applicable to these other models as well.

  6. Dynamical diagnostics of the SST annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific: part I a linear coupled framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ying-Ying; Jin, Fei-Fei

    2018-03-01

    The eastern equatorial Pacific has a pronounced westward propagating SST annual cycle resulting from ocean-atmosphere interactions with equatorial semiannual solar forcing and off-equatorial annual solar forcing conveyed to the equator. In this two-part paper, a simple linear coupled framework is proposed to quantify the internal dynamics and external forcing for a better understanding of the linear part of the dynamics annual cycle. It is shown that an essential internal dynamical factor is the SST damping rate which measures the coupled stability in a similar way as the Bjerknes instability index for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. It comprises three major negative terms (dynamic damping due to the Ekman pumping feedback, mean circulation advection, and thermodynamic feedback) and two positive terms (thermocline feedback and zonal advection). Another dynamical factor is the westward-propagation speed that is mainly determined by the thermodynamic feedback, the Ekman pumping feedback, and the mean circulation. The external forcing is measured by the annual and semiannual forcing factors. These linear internal and external factors, which can be estimated from data, determine the amplitude of the annual cycle.

  7. Magnetosphere - Ionosphere - Thermosphere (MIT) Coupling at Jupiter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, J. N.; Ray, L. C.; Achilleos, N.

    2017-12-01

    Jupiter's upper atmospheric temperature is considerably higher than that predicted by Solar Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) heating alone. Simulations incorporating magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling effects into general circulation models have, to date, struggled to reproduce the observed atmospheric temperatures under simplifying assumptions such as azimuthal symmetry and a spin-aligned dipole magnetic field. Here we present the development of a full three-dimensional thermosphere model coupled in both hemispheres to an axisymmetric magnetosphere model. This new coupled model is based on the two-dimensional MIT model presented in Yates et al., 2014. This coupled model is a critical step towards to the development of a fully coupled 3D MIT model. We discuss and compare the resulting thermospheric flows, energy balance and MI coupling currents to those presented in previous 2D MIT models.

  8. Path coupling and aggregate path coupling

    CERN Document Server

    Kovchegov, Yevgeniy

    2018-01-01

    This book describes and characterizes an extension to the classical path coupling method applied to statistical mechanical models, referred to as aggregate path coupling. In conjunction with large deviations estimates, the aggregate path coupling method is used to prove rapid mixing of Glauber dynamics for a large class of statistical mechanical models, including models that exhibit discontinuous phase transitions which have traditionally been more difficult to analyze rigorously. The book shows how the parameter regions for rapid mixing for several classes of statistical mechanical models are derived using the aggregate path coupling method.

  9. Coupled model simulations of climate changes in the 20th century and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yongqiang; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Bin; Wan, Hui; Li, Chao; Liu, Hailong; Li, Wei; Zheng, Weipeng; Zhou, Tianjun

    2008-07-01

    Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (FGOALS) developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS), including the “Climate of the 20th century experiment”, “CO2 1% increase per year to doubling experiment” and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios A1B and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change, three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show: (1) from 1900 to 2000, the global mean temperature increases about 0.5°C and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century, which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model’s ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; (2) the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6°C in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5°C and 2.4°C in the A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS, in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming.

  10. Numerical prediction of rose growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bernsen, E.; Bokhove, Onno; van der Sar, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    A new mathematical model is presented for the prediction of rose growth in a greenhouse. Given the measured ambient environmental conditions, the model consists of a local photosynthesis model, predicting the photosynthesis per unit leaf area, coupled to a global greenhouse model, which predicts the

  11. Remote SST Forcing and Local Land-Atmosphere Moisture Coupling as Drivers of Amazon Temperature and Carbon Cycle Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, P. A.; Xu, M.; Chen, Y.; Randerson, J. T.; Hoffman, F. M.

    2017-12-01

    results from both SST and SM anomalies. As with T, SM anomalies affect NEP at a much longer lag time than SST anomalies. These results highlight the role of land-atmosphere coupling in driving climate variability within the Amazon, and suggest that land atmospheric coupling may amplify and delay carbon cycle responses to ocean-atmosphere teleconnections.

  12. Measuring Relative Coupling Strength in Circadian Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmal, Christoph; Herzog, Erik D; Herzel, Hanspeter

    2018-02-01

    Modern imaging techniques allow the monitoring of circadian rhythms of single cells. Coupling between these single cellular circadian oscillators can generate coherent periodic signals on the tissue level that subsequently orchestrate physiological outputs. The strength of coupling in such systems of oscillators is often unclear. In particular, effects on coupling strength by varying cell densities, by knockouts, and by inhibitor applications are debated. In this study, we suggest to quantify the relative coupling strength via analyzing period, phase, and amplitude distributions in ensembles of individual circadian oscillators. Simulations of different oscillator networks show that period and phase distributions become narrower with increasing coupling strength. Moreover, amplitudes can increase due to resonance effects. Variances of periods and phases decay monotonically with coupling strength, and can serve therefore as measures of relative coupling strength. Our theoretical predictions are confirmed by studying recently published experimental data from PERIOD2 expression in slices of the suprachiasmatic nucleus during and after the application of tetrodotoxin (TTX). On analyzing the corresponding period, phase, and amplitude distributions, we can show that treatment with TTX can be associated with a reduced coupling strength in the system of coupled oscillators. Analysis of an oscillator network derived directly from the data confirms our conclusions. We suggest that our approach is also applicable to quantify coupling in fibroblast cultures and hepatocyte networks, and for social synchronization of circadian rhythmicity in rodents, flies, and bees.

  13. Predicting summer monsoon of Bhutan based on SST and teleconnection indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorji, Singay; Herath, Srikantha; Mishra, Binaya Kumar; Chophel, Ugyen

    2018-02-01

    The paper uses a statistical method of predicting summer monsoon over Bhutan using the ocean-atmospheric circulation variables of sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea-level pressure (MSLP), and selected teleconnection indices. The predictors are selected based on the correlation. They are the SST and MSLP of the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea and the MSLP of Bangladesh and northeast India. The Northern Hemisphere teleconnections of East Atlantic Pattern (EA), West Pacific Pattern (WP), Pacific/North American Pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern (EA/WR). The rainfall station data are grouped into two regions with principal components analysis and Ward's hierarchical clustering algorithm. A support vector machine for regression model is proposed to predict the monsoon. The model shows improved skills over traditional linear regression. The model was able to predict the summer monsoon for the test data from 2011 to 2015 with a total monthly root mean squared error of 112 mm for region A and 33 mm for region B. Model could also forecast the 2016 monsoon of the South Asia Monsoon Outlook of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for Bhutan. The reliance on agriculture and hydropower economy makes the prediction of summer monsoon highly valuable information for farmers and various other sectors. The proposed method can predict summer monsoon for operational forecasting.

  14. Spatio-temporal dynamics of growth and survival of Lesser Sandeel early life-stages in the North Sea: Predictions from a coupled individual-based and hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gurkan, Zeren; Christensen, Asbjørn; Maar, Marie

    2013-01-01

    Accounting for the individual variability and regional variations are important when predicting recruitment in fish species. Spatially explicit descriptions for recruitment in sandeels are necessary and sandeel growth and survival depend locally on zooplankton prey. We investigate the responses o...

  15. Dynamics of Coupled Quantum Spin Chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulz, H.J.

    1996-01-01

    Static and dynamical properties of weakly coupled antiferromagnetic spin chains are treated using a mean-field approximation for the interchain coupling and exact results for the resulting effective one-dimensional problem. Results for staggered magnetization, Nacute eel temperature, and spin wave excitations are in agreement with experiments on KCuF 3 . The existence of a narrow longitudinal mode is predicted. The results are in agreement with general scaling arguments, contrary to spin wave theory. copyright 1996 The American Physical Society

  16. Linear dynamic coupling in geared rotor systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, J. W.; Mitchell, L. D.

    1986-01-01

    The effects of high frequency oscillations caused by the gear mesh, on components of a geared system that can be modeled as rigid discs are analyzed using linear dynamic coupling terms. The coupled, nonlinear equations of motion for a disc attached to a rotating shaft are presented. The results of a trial problem analysis show that the inclusion of the linear dynamic coupling terms can produce significant changes in the predicted response of geared rotor systems, and that the produced sideband responses are greater than the unbalanced response. The method is useful in designing gear drives for heavy-lift helicopters, industrial speed reducers, naval propulsion systems, and heavy off-road equipment.

  17. Impact of air-sea drag coefficient for latent heat flux on large scale climate in coupled and atmosphere stand-alone simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Olivier; Braconnot, Pascale; Marti, Olivier; Gential, Luc

    2018-05-01

    The turbulent fluxes across the ocean/atmosphere interface represent one of the principal driving forces of the global atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Despite decades of effort and improvements, representation of these fluxes still presents a challenge due to the small-scale acting turbulent processes compared to the resolved scales of the models. Beyond this subgrid parameterization issue, a comprehensive understanding of the impact of air-sea interactions on the climate system is still lacking. In this paper we investigates the large-scale impacts of the transfer coefficient used to compute turbulent heat fluxes with the IPSL-CM4 climate model in which the surface bulk formula is modified. Analyzing both atmosphere and coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM, OAGCM) simulations allows us to study the direct effect and the mechanisms of adjustment to this modification. We focus on the representation of latent heat flux in the tropics. We show that the heat transfer coefficients are highly similar for a given parameterization between AGCM and OAGCM simulations. Although the same areas are impacted in both kind of simulations, the differences in surface heat fluxes are substantial. A regional modification of heat transfer coefficient has more impact than uniform modification in AGCM simulations while in OAGCM simulations, the opposite is observed. By studying the global energetics and the atmospheric circulation response to the modification, we highlight the role of the ocean in dampening a large part of the disturbance. Modification of the heat exchange coefficient modifies the way the coupled system works due to the link between atmospheric circulation and SST, and the different feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere. The adjustment that takes place implies a balance of net incoming solar radiation that is the same in all simulations. As there is no change in model physics other than drag coefficient, we obtain similar latent heat flux

  18. Electromagnetic clutches and couplings

    CERN Document Server

    Vorob'Yeva, T M; Fry, D W; Higinbotham, W

    2013-01-01

    Electromagnetic Clutches and Couplings contains a detailed description of U.S.S.R. electromagnetic friction clutches, magnetic couplings, and magnetic particle couplings. This book is divided into four chapters. The first chapter discusses the design and construction of magnetic (solenoid-operated) couplings, which are very quick-acting devices and used in low power high-speed servo-systems. Chapter 2 describes the possible fields of application, design, construction, and utilization of magnetic particle couplings. The aspects of construction, design, and utilization of induction clutches (sli

  19. Ultrastrong Coupling Few-Photon Scattering Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Tao; Chang, Yue; García-Ripoll, Juan José

    2018-04-01

    We study the scattering of individual photons by a two-level system ultrastrongly coupled to a waveguide. The scattering is elastic for a broad range of couplings and can be described with an effective U (1 )-symmetric Hamiltonian. This simple model allows the prediction of scattering resonance line shapes, validated up to α =0.3 , and close to the Toulouse point α =1 /2 , where inelastic scattering becomes relevant. Our predictions model experiments with superconducting circuits [P. Forn-Díaz et al., Nat. Phys. 13, 39 (2017), 10.1038/nphys3905] and can be extended to study multiphoton scattering.

  20. Diverse coupling of neurons to populations in sensory cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okun, Michael; Steinmetz, Nicholas; Cossell, Lee; Iacaruso, M Florencia; Ko, Ho; Barthó, Péter; Moore, Tirin; Hofer, Sonja B; Mrsic-Flogel, Thomas D; Carandini, Matteo; Harris, Kenneth D

    2015-05-28

    A large population of neurons can, in principle, produce an astronomical number of distinct firing patterns. In cortex, however, these patterns lie in a space of lower dimension, as if individual neurons were "obedient members of a huge orchestra". Here we use recordings from the visual cortex of mouse (Mus musculus) and monkey (Macaca mulatta) to investigate the relationship between individual neurons and the population, and to establish the underlying circuit mechanisms. We show that neighbouring neurons can differ in their coupling to the overall firing of the population, ranging from strongly coupled 'choristers' to weakly coupled 'soloists'. Population coupling is largely independent of sensory preferences, and it is a fixed cellular attribute, invariant to stimulus conditions. Neurons with high population coupling are more strongly affected by non-sensory behavioural variables such as motor intention. Population coupling reflects a causal relationship, predicting the response of a neuron to optogenetically driven increases in local activity. Moreover, population coupling indicates synaptic connectivity; the population coupling of a neuron, measured in vivo, predicted subsequent in vitro estimates of the number of synapses received from its neighbours. Finally, population coupling provides a compact summary of population activity; knowledge of the population couplings of n neurons predicts a substantial portion of their n(2) pairwise correlations. Population coupling therefore represents a novel, simple measure that characterizes the relationship of each neuron to a larger population, explaining seemingly complex network firing patterns in terms of basic circuit variables.

  1. Sensitivity analysis of a coupled hydrodynamic-vegetation model using the effectively subsampled quadratures method (ESQM v5.2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalra, Tarandeep S.; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo; Seshadri, Pranay; Ganju, Neil K.; Beudin, Alexis

    2017-12-01

    Coastal hydrodynamics can be greatly affected by the presence of submerged aquatic vegetation. The effect of vegetation has been incorporated into the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system. The vegetation implementation includes the plant-induced three-dimensional drag, in-canopy wave-induced streaming, and the production of turbulent kinetic energy by the presence of vegetation. In this study, we evaluate the sensitivity of the flow and wave dynamics to vegetation parameters using Sobol' indices and a least squares polynomial approach referred to as the Effective Quadratures method. This method reduces the number of simulations needed for evaluating Sobol' indices and provides a robust, practical, and efficient approach for the parameter sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of Sobol' indices shows that kinetic energy, turbulent kinetic energy, and water level changes are affected by plant stem density, height, and, to a lesser degree, diameter. Wave dissipation is mostly dependent on the variation in plant stem density. Performing sensitivity analyses for the vegetation module in COAWST provides guidance to optimize efforts and reduce exploration of parameter space for future observational and modeling work.

  2. Synchronization of three electrochemical oscillators: From local to global coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yifan; Sebek, Michael; Mori, Fumito; Kiss, István Z.

    2018-04-01

    We investigate the formation of synchronization patterns in an oscillatory nickel electrodissolution system in a network obtained by superimposing local and global coupling with three electrodes. We explored the behavior through numerical simulations using kinetic ordinary differential equations, Kuramoto type phase models, and experiments, in which the local to global coupling could be tuned by cross resistances between the three nickel wires. At intermediate coupling strength with predominant global coupling, two of the three oscillators, whose natural frequencies are closer, can synchronize. By adding even a relatively small amount of local coupling (about 9%-25%), a spatially organized partially synchronized state can occur where one of the two synchronized elements is in the center. A formula was derived for predicting the critical coupling strength at which full synchronization will occur independent of the permutation of the natural frequencies of the oscillators over the network. The formula correctly predicts the variation of the critical coupling strength as a function of the global coupling fraction, e.g., with local coupling the critical coupling strength is about twice than that required with global coupling. The results show the importance of the topology of the network on the synchronization properties in a simple three-oscillator setup and could provide guidelines for decrypting coupling topology from identification of synchronization patterns.

  3. Conversation, coupling and complexity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fusaroli, Riccardo; Abney, Drew; Bahrami, Bahador

    We investigate the linguistic co-construction of interpersonal synergies. By applying a measure of coupling between complex systems to an experimentally elicited corpus of joint decision dialogues, we show that interlocutors’ linguistic behavior displays increasing signature of multi-scale coupling......, known as complexity matching, over the course of interaction. Furthermore, we show that stronger coupling corresponds with more effective interaction, as measured by collective task performance....

  4. Coupling Integrable Couplings of an Equation Hierarchy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Hui; Xia Tie-Cheng

    2013-01-01

    Based on a kind of Lie algebra G proposed by Zhang, one isospectral problem is designed. Under the framework of zero curvature equation, a new kind of integrable coupling of an equation hierarchy is generated using the methods proposed by Ma and Gao. With the help of variational identity, we get the Hamiltonian structure of the hierarchy. (general)

  5. Effect of Global Warming and Increased Freshwater Flux on Northern Hemispheric Cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girihagama, L. N.; Nof, D.

    2016-02-01

    We wish to answer the, fairly complicated, question of whether global warming and an increased freshwater flux can cause Northern Hemispheric warming or cooling. Starting from the assumption that the ocean is the primary source of variability in the Northern hemispheric ocean-atmosphere coupled system, we employed a simple non-linear one-dimensional coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The simplicity of the model allows us to analytically predict the evolution of many dynamical variables of interest such as, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), temperatures of the ocean and atmosphere, mass transports, salinity, and ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes. The model results show that a reduced AMOC transport due to an increased freshwater flux causes cooling in both the atmosphere and ocean in the North Atlantic (NA) deep-water formation region. Cooling in both the ocean and atmosphere can cause reduction of the ocean-atmosphere temperature difference, which in turn reduces heat fluxes in both the ocean and atmosphere. For present day climate parameters, the calculated critical freshwater flux needed to arrest AMOC is 0.08 Sv. For a constant atmospheric zonal flow, there is minimal reduction in the AMOC strength, as well as minimal warming of the ocean and atmosphere. This model provides a conceptual framework for a dynamically sound response of the ocean and atmosphere to AMOC variability as a function of increased freshwater flux. The results are qualitatively consistent with numerous realistic coupled numerical models of varying complexity.

  6. Coupling of latent heat flux and the greenhouse effect by large-scale tropical/subtropical dynamics diagnosed in a set of observations and model simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gershunov, A. [Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093-0224 (United States); Roca, R. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Ecole Polytechnique, 91128 Palaiseau (France)

    2004-03-01

    Coupled variability of the greenhouse effect (GH) and latent heat flux (LHF) over the tropical - subtropical oceans is described, summarized and compared in observations and a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM). Coupled seasonal and interannual modes account for much of the total variability in both GH and LHF. In both observations and model, seasonal coupled variability is locally 180 out-of-phase throughout the tropics. Moisture is brought into convergent/convective regions from remote source areas located partly in the opposite, non-convective hemisphere. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific GH in the ENSO region of largest interannual variance is 180 out of phase with local LHF in observations but in phase in the model. A local source of moisture is thus present in the model on interannual time scales while in observations, moisture is mostly advected from remote source regions. The latent cooling and radiative heating of the surface as manifested in the interplay of LHF and GH is an important determinant of the current climate. Moreover, the hydrodynamic processes involved in the GH-LHF interplay determine in large part the climate response to external perturbations mainly through influencing the water vapor feedback but also through their intimate connection to the hydrological cycle. The diagnostic process proposed here can be performed on other CGCMs. Similarly, it should be repeated using a number of observational latent heat flux datasets to account for the variability in the different satellite retrievals. A realistic CGCM could be used to further study these coupled dynamics in natural and anthropogenically altered climate conditions. (orig.)

  7. Translation-coupling systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfleger, Brian; Mendez-Perez, Daniel

    2013-11-05

    Disclosed are systems and methods for coupling translation of a target gene to a detectable response gene. A version of the invention includes a translation-coupling cassette. The translation-coupling cassette includes a target gene, a response gene, a response-gene translation control element, and a secondary structure-forming sequence that reversibly forms a secondary structure masking the response-gene translation control element. Masking of the response-gene translation control element inhibits translation of the response gene. Full translation of the target gene results in unfolding of the secondary structure and consequent translation of the response gene. Translation of the target gene is determined by detecting presence of the response-gene protein product. The invention further includes RNA transcripts of the translation-coupling cassettes, vectors comprising the translation-coupling cassettes, hosts comprising the translation-coupling cassettes, methods of using the translation-coupling cassettes, and gene products produced with the translation-coupling cassettes.

  8. Characteristics of persistent spin current components in a quasi-periodic Fibonacci ring with spin–orbit interactions: Prediction of spin–orbit coupling and on-site energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patra, Moumita; Maiti, Santanu K.

    2016-01-01

    In the present work we investigate the behavior of all three components of persistent spin current in a quasi-periodic Fibonacci ring subjected to Rashba and Dresselhaus spin–orbit interactions. Analogous to persistent charge current in a conducting ring where electrons gain a Berry phase in presence of magnetic flux, spin Berry phase is associated during the motion of electrons in presence of a spin–orbit field which is responsible for the generation of spin current. The interplay between two spin–orbit fields along with quasi-periodic Fibonacci sequence on persistent spin current is described elaborately, and from our analysis, we can estimate the strength of any one of two spin–orbit couplings together with on-site energy, provided the other is known. - Highlights: • Determination of Rashba and Dresselhaus spin–orbit fields is discussed. • Characteristics of all three components of spin current are explored. • Possibility of estimating on-site energy is given. • Results can be generalized to any lattice models.

  9. Precise determination of the mass of the Higgs boson and tests of compatibility of its couplings with the standard model predictions using proton collisions at 7 and 8 TeV

    CERN Document Server

    Khachatryan, Vardan; Tumasyan, Armen; Adam, Wolfgang; Bergauer, Thomas; Dragicevic, Marko; Erö, Janos; Friedl, Markus; Fruehwirth, Rudolf; Ghete, Vasile Mihai; Hartl, Christian; Hörmann, Natascha; Hrubec, Josef; Jeitler, Manfred; Kiesenhofer, Wolfgang; Knünz, Valentin; Krammer, Manfred; Krätschmer, Ilse; Liko, Dietrich; Mikulec, Ivan; Rabady, Dinyar; Rahbaran, Babak; Rohringer, Herbert; Schöfbeck, Robert; Strauss, Josef; Treberer-Treberspurg, Wolfgang; Waltenberger, Wolfgang; Wulz, Claudia-Elisabeth; Mossolov, Vladimir; Shumeiko, Nikolai; Suarez Gonzalez, Juan; Alderweireldt, Sara; Bansal, Sunil; Cornelis, Tom; De Wolf, Eddi A; Janssen, Xavier; Knutsson, Albert; Lauwers, Jasper; Luyckx, Sten; Ochesanu, Silvia; Rougny, Romain; Van De Klundert, Merijn; Van Haevermaet, Hans; Van Mechelen, Pierre; Van Remortel, Nick; Van Spilbeeck, Alex; Blekman, Freya; Blyweert, Stijn; D'Hondt, Jorgen; Daci, Nadir; Heracleous, Natalie; Keaveney, James; Lowette, Steven; Maes, Michael; Olbrechts, Annik; Python, Quentin; Strom, Derek; Tavernier, Stefaan; Van Doninck, Walter; Van Mulders, Petra; Van Onsem, Gerrit Patrick; Villella, Ilaria; Caillol, Cécile; Clerbaux, Barbara; De Lentdecker, Gilles; Dobur, Didar; Favart, Laurent; Gay, Arnaud; Grebenyuk, Anastasia; Léonard, Alexandre; Mohammadi, Abdollah; Perniè, Luca; Randle-conde, Aidan; Reis, Thomas; Seva, Tomislav; Thomas, Laurent; Vander Velde, Catherine; Vanlaer, Pascal; Wang, Jian; Zenoni, Florian; Adler, Volker; Beernaert, Kelly; Benucci, Leonardo; Cimmino, Anna; Costantini, Silvia; Crucy, Shannon; Fagot, Alexis; Garcia, Guillaume; Mccartin, Joseph; Ocampo Rios, Alberto Andres; Poyraz, Deniz; Ryckbosch, Dirk; Salva Diblen, Sinem; Sigamani, Michael; Strobbe, Nadja; Thyssen, Filip; Tytgat, Michael; Yazgan, Efe; Zaganidis, Nicolas; Basegmez, Suzan; Beluffi, Camille; Bruno, Giacomo; Castello, Roberto; Caudron, Adrien; Ceard, Ludivine; Da Silveira, Gustavo Gil; Delaere, Christophe; Du Pree, Tristan; Favart, Denis; Forthomme, Laurent; Giammanco, Andrea; Hollar, Jonathan; Jafari, Abideh; Jez, Pavel; Komm, Matthias; Lemaitre, Vincent; Nuttens, Claude; Pagano, Davide; Perrini, Lucia; Pin, Arnaud; Piotrzkowski, Krzysztof; Popov, Andrey; Quertenmont, Loic; Selvaggi, Michele; Vidal Marono, Miguel; Vizan Garcia, Jesus Manuel; Beliy, Nikita; Caebergs, Thierry; Daubie, Evelyne; Hammad, Gregory Habib; Aldá Júnior, Walter Luiz; Alves, Gilvan; Brito, Lucas; Correa Martins Junior, Marcos; Dos Reis Martins, Thiago; Molina, Jorge; Mora Herrera, Clemencia; Pol, Maria Elena; Rebello Teles, Patricia; Carvalho, Wagner; Chinellato, Jose; Custódio, Analu; Melo Da Costa, Eliza; De Jesus Damiao, Dilson; De Oliveira Martins, Carley; Fonseca De Souza, Sandro; Malbouisson, Helena; Matos Figueiredo, Diego; Mundim, Luiz; Nogima, Helio; Prado Da Silva, Wanda Lucia; Santaolalla, Javier; Santoro, Alberto; Sznajder, Andre; Tonelli Manganote, Edmilson José; Vilela Pereira, Antonio; Bernardes, Cesar Augusto; Dogra, Sunil; Tomei, Thiago; De Moraes Gregores, Eduardo; Mercadante, Pedro G; Novaes, Sergio F; Padula, Sandra; Aleksandrov, Aleksandar; Genchev, Vladimir; Hadjiiska, Roumyana; Iaydjiev, Plamen; Marinov, Andrey; Piperov, Stefan; Rodozov, Mircho; Stoykova, Stefka; Sultanov, Georgi; Vutova, Mariana; Dimitrov, Anton; Glushkov, Ivan; Litov, Leander; Pavlov, Borislav; Petkov, Peicho; Bian, Jian-Guo; Chen, Guo-Ming; Chen, He-Sheng; Chen, Mingshui; Cheng, Tongguang; Du, Ran; Jiang, Chun-Hua; Plestina, Roko; Romeo, Francesco; Tao, Junquan; Wang, Zheng; Asawatangtrakuldee, Chayanit; Ban, Yong; Liu, Shuai; Mao, Yajun; Qian, Si-Jin; Wang, Dayong; Xu, Zijun; Zhang, Fengwangdong; Zhang, Linlin; Zou, Wei; Avila, Carlos; Cabrera, Andrés; Chaparro Sierra, Luisa Fernanda; Florez, Carlos; Gomez, Juan Pablo; Gomez Moreno, Bernardo; Sanabria, Juan Carlos; Godinovic, Nikola; Lelas, Damir; Polic, Dunja; Puljak, Ivica; Antunovic, Zeljko; Kovac, Marko; Brigljevic, Vuko; Kadija, Kreso; Luetic, Jelena; Mekterovic, Darko; Sudic, Lucija; Attikis, Alexandros; Mavromanolakis, Georgios; Mousa, Jehad; Nicolaou, Charalambos; Ptochos, Fotios; Razis, Panos A; Rykaczewski, Hans; Bodlak, Martin; Finger, Miroslav; Finger Jr, Michael; Assran, Yasser; Ellithi Kamel, Ali; Mahmoud, Mohammed; Radi, Amr; Kadastik, Mario; Murumaa, Marion; Raidal, Martti; Tiko, Andres; Eerola, Paula; Voutilainen, Mikko; Härkönen, Jaakko; Heikkilä, Jaana Kristiina; Karimäki, Veikko; Kinnunen, Ritva; Kortelainen, Matti J; Lampén, Tapio; Lassila-Perini, Kati; Lehti, Sami; Lindén, Tomas; Luukka, Panja-Riina; Mäenpää, Teppo; Peltola, Timo; Tuominen, Eija; Tuominiemi, Jorma; Tuovinen, Esa; Wendland, Lauri; Talvitie, Joonas; Tuuva, Tuure; Besancon, Marc; Couderc, Fabrice; Dejardin, Marc; Denegri, Daniel; Fabbro, Bernard; Faure, Jean-Louis; Favaro, Carlotta; Ferri, Federico; Ganjour, Serguei; Givernaud, Alain; Gras, Philippe; Hamel de Monchenault, Gautier; Jarry, Patrick; Locci, Elizabeth; Malcles, Julie; Rander, John; Rosowsky, André; Titov, Maksym; Baffioni, Stephanie; Beaudette, Florian; Busson, Philippe; Chapon, Emilien; Charlot, Claude; Dahms, Torsten; Dobrzynski, Ludwik; Filipovic, Nicolas; Florent, Alice; Granier de Cassagnac, Raphael; Mastrolorenzo, Luca; Miné, Philippe; Naranjo, Ivo Nicolas; Nguyen, Matthew; Ochando, Christophe; Ortona, Giacomo; Paganini, Pascal; Regnard, Simon; Salerno, Roberto; Sauvan, Jean-Baptiste; Sirois, Yves; Veelken, Christian; Yilmaz, Yetkin; Zabi, Alexandre; Agram, Jean-Laurent; Andrea, Jeremy; Aubin, Alexandre; Bloch, Daniel; Brom, Jean-Marie; Chabert, Eric Christian; Collard, Caroline; Conte, Eric; Fontaine, Jean-Charles; Gelé, Denis; Goerlach, Ulrich; Goetzmann, Christophe; Le Bihan, Anne-Catherine; Skovpen, Kirill; Van Hove, Pierre; Gadrat, Sébastien; Beauceron, Stephanie; Beaupere, Nicolas; Bernet, Colin; Boudoul, Gaelle; Bouvier, Elvire; Brochet, Sébastien; Carrillo Montoya, Camilo Andres; Chasserat, Julien; Chierici, Roberto; Contardo, Didier; Courbon, Benoit; Depasse, Pierre; El Mamouni, Houmani; Fan, Jiawei; Fay, Jean; Gascon, Susan; Gouzevitch, Maxime; Ille, Bernard; Kurca, Tibor; Lethuillier, Morgan; Mirabito, Laurent; Pequegnot, Anne-Laure; Perries, Stephane; Ruiz Alvarez, José David; Sabes, David; Sgandurra, Louis; Sordini, Viola; Vander Donckt, Muriel; Verdier, Patrice; Viret, Sébastien; Xiao, Hong; Tsamalaidze, Zviad; Autermann, Christian; Beranek, Sarah; Bontenackels, Michael; Edelhoff, Matthias; Feld, Lutz; Heister, Arno; Klein, Katja; Lipinski, Martin; Ostapchuk, Andrey; Preuten, Marius; Raupach, Frank; Sammet, Jan; Schael, Stefan; Schulte, Jan-Frederik; Weber, Hendrik; Wittmer, Bruno; Zhukov, Valery; Ata, Metin; Brodski, Michael; Dietz-Laursonn, Erik; Duchardt, Deborah; Erdmann, Martin; Fischer, Robert; Güth, Andreas; Hebbeker, Thomas; Heidemann, Carsten; Hoepfner, Kerstin; Klingebiel, Dennis; Knutzen, Simon; Kreuzer, Peter; Merschmeyer, Markus; Meyer, Arnd; Millet, Philipp; Olschewski, Mark; Padeken, Klaas; Papacz, Paul; Reithler, Hans; Schmitz, Stefan Antonius; Sonnenschein, Lars; Teyssier, Daniel; Thüer, Sebastian; Cherepanov, Vladimir; Erdogan, Yusuf; Flügge, Günter; Geenen, Heiko; Geisler, Matthias; Haj Ahmad, Wael; Hoehle, Felix; Kargoll, Bastian; Kress, Thomas; Kuessel, Yvonne; Künsken, Andreas; Lingemann, Joschka; Nowack, Andreas; Nugent, Ian Michael; Pistone, Claudia; Pooth, Oliver; Stahl, Achim; Aldaya Martin, Maria; Asin, Ivan; Bartosik, Nazar; Behr, Joerg; Behrens, Ulf; Bell, Alan James; Bethani, Agni; Borras, Kerstin; Burgmeier, Armin; Cakir, Altan; Calligaris, Luigi; Campbell, Alan; Choudhury, Somnath; Costanza, Francesco; Diez Pardos, Carmen; Dolinska, Ganna; Dooling, Samantha; Dorland, Tyler; Eckerlin, Guenter; Eckstein, Doris; Eichhorn, Thomas; Flucke, Gero; Garay Garcia, Jasone; Geiser, Achim; Gizhko, Andrii; Gunnellini, Paolo; Hauk, Johannes; Hempel, Maria; Jung, Hannes; Kalogeropoulos, Alexis; Karacheban, Olena; Kasemann, Matthias; Katsas, Panagiotis; Kieseler, Jan; Kleinwort, Claus; Korol, Ievgen; Krücker, Dirk; Lange, Wolfgang; Leonard, Jessica; Lipka, Katerina; Lobanov, Artur; Lohmann, Wolfgang; Lutz, Benjamin; Mankel, Rainer; Marfin, Ihar; Melzer-Pellmann, Isabell-Alissandra; Meyer, Andreas Bernhard; Mittag, Gregor; Mnich, Joachim; Mussgiller, Andreas; Naumann-Emme, Sebastian; Nayak, Aruna; Ntomari, Eleni; Perrey, Hanno; Pitzl, Daniel; Placakyte, Ringaile; Raspereza, Alexei; Ribeiro Cipriano, Pedro M; Roland, Benoit; Ron, Elias; Sahin, Mehmet Özgür; Salfeld-Nebgen, Jakob; Saxena, Pooja; Schoerner-Sadenius, Thomas; Schröder, Matthias; Seitz, Claudia; Spannagel, Simon; Vargas Trevino, Andrea Del Rocio; Walsh, Roberval; Wissing, Christoph; Blobel, Volker; Centis Vignali, Matteo; Draeger, Arne-Rasmus; Erfle, Joachim; Garutti, Erika; Goebel, Kristin; Görner, Martin; Haller, Johannes; Hoffmann, Malte; Höing, Rebekka Sophie; Junkes, Alexandra; Kirschenmann, Henning; Klanner, Robert; Kogler, Roman; Lapsien, Tobias; Lenz, Teresa; Marchesini, Ivan; Marconi, Daniele; Ott, Jochen; Peiffer, Thomas; Perieanu, Adrian; Pietsch, Niklas; Poehlsen, Jennifer; Pöhlsen, Thomas; Rathjens, Denis; Sander, Christian; Schettler, Hannes; Schleper, Peter; Schlieckau, Eike; Schmidt, Alexander; Seidel, Markus; Sola, Valentina; Stadie, Hartmut; Steinbrück, Georg; Troendle, Daniel; Usai, Emanuele; Vanelderen, Lukas; Vanhoefer, Annika; Barth, Christian; Baus, Colin; Berger, Joram; Böser, Christian; Butz, Erik; Chwalek, Thorsten; De Boer, Wim; Descroix, Alexis; Dierlamm, Alexander; Feindt, Michael; Frensch, Felix; Giffels, Manuel; Gilbert, Andrew; Hartmann, Frank; Hauth, Thomas; Husemann, Ulrich; Katkov, Igor; Kornmayer, Andreas; Lobelle Pardo, Patricia; Mozer, Matthias Ulrich; Müller, Thomas; Müller, Thomas; Nürnberg, Andreas; Quast, Gunter; Rabbertz, Klaus; Röcker, Steffen; Simonis, Hans-Jürgen; Stober, Fred-Markus Helmut; Ulrich, Ralf; Wagner-Kuhr, Jeannine; Wayand, Stefan; Weiler, Thomas; Wolf, Roger; Anagnostou, Georgios; Daskalakis, Georgios; Geralis, Theodoros; Giakoumopoulou, Viktoria Athina; Kyriakis, Aristotelis; Loukas, Demetrios; Markou, Athanasios; Markou, Christos; Psallidas, Andreas; Topsis-Giotis, Iasonas; Agapitos, Antonis; Kesisoglou, Stilianos; Panagiotou, Apostolos; Saoulidou, Niki; Stiliaris, Efstathios; Tziaferi, Eirini; Aslanoglou, Xenofon; Evangelou, Ioannis; Flouris, Giannis; Foudas, Costas; Kokkas, Panagiotis; Manthos, Nikolaos; Papadopoulos, Ioannis; Paradas, Evangelos; Strologas, John; Bencze, Gyorgy; Hajdu, Csaba; Hidas, Pàl; Horvath, Dezso; Sikler, Ferenc; Veszpremi, Viktor; Vesztergombi, Gyorgy; Zsigmond, Anna Julia; Beni, Noemi; Czellar, Sandor; Karancsi, János; Molnar, Jozsef; Palinkas, Jozsef; Szillasi, Zoltan; Makovec, Alajos; Raics, Peter; Trocsanyi, Zoltan Laszlo; Ujvari, Balazs; Swain, Sanjay Kumar; Beri, Suman Bala; Bhatnagar, Vipin; Gupta, Ruchi; Bhawandeep, Bhawandeep; Kalsi, Amandeep Kaur; Kaur, Manjit; Kumar, Ramandeep; Mittal, Monika; Nishu, Nishu; Singh, Jasbir; Kumar, Ashok; Kumar, Arun; Ahuja, Sudha; Bhardwaj, Ashutosh; Choudhary, Brajesh C; Kumar, Ajay; Malhotra, Shivali; Naimuddin, Md; Ranjan, Kirti; Sharma, Varun; Banerjee, Sunanda; Bhattacharya, Satyaki; Chatterjee, Kalyanmoy; Dutta, Suchandra; Gomber, Bhawna; Jain, Sandhya; Jain, Shilpi; Khurana, Raman; Modak, Atanu; Mukherjee, Swagata; Roy, Debarati; Sarkar, Subir; Sharan, Manoj; Abdulsalam, Abdulla; Dutta, Dipanwita; Kumar, Vineet; Mohanty, Ajit Kumar; Pant, Lalit Mohan; Shukla, Prashant; Topkar, Anita; Aziz, Tariq; Banerjee, Sudeshna; Bhowmik, Sandeep; Chatterjee, Rajdeep Mohan; Dewanjee, Ram Krishna; Dugad, Shashikant; Ganguly, Sanmay; Ghosh, Saranya; Guchait, Monoranjan; Gurtu, Atul; Kole, Gouranga; Kumar, Sanjeev; Maity, Manas; Majumder, Gobinda; Mazumdar, Kajari; Mohanty, Gagan Bihari; Parida, Bibhuti; Sudhakar, Katta; Wickramage, Nadeesha; Sharma, Seema; Bakhshiansohi, Hamed; Behnamian, Hadi; Etesami, Seyed Mohsen; Fahim, Ali; Goldouzian, Reza; Khakzad, Mohsen; Mohammadi Najafabadi, Mojtaba; Naseri, Mohsen; Paktinat Mehdiabadi, Saeid; Rezaei Hosseinabadi, Ferdos; Safarzadeh, Batool; Zeinali, Maryam; Felcini, Marta; Grunewald, Martin; Abbrescia, Marcello; Calabria, Cesare; Chhibra, Simranjit Singh; Colaleo, Anna; Creanza, Donato; Cristella, Leonardo; De Filippis, Nicola; De Palma, Mauro; Fiore, Luigi; Iaselli, Giuseppe; Maggi, Giorgio; Maggi, Marcello; My, Salvatore; Nuzzo, Salvatore; Pompili, Alexis; Pugliese, Gabriella; Radogna, Raffaella; Selvaggi, Giovanna; Sharma, Archana; Silvestris, Lucia; Venditti, Rosamaria; Verwilligen, Piet; Abbiendi, Giovanni; Benvenuti, Alberto; Bonacorsi, Daniele; Braibant-Giacomelli, Sylvie; Brigliadori, Luca; Campanini, Renato; Capiluppi, Paolo; Castro, Andrea; Cavallo, Francesca Romana; Codispoti, Giuseppe; Cuffiani, Marco; Dallavalle, Gaetano-Marco; Fabbri, Fabrizio; Fanfani, Alessandra; Fasanella, Daniele; Giacomelli, Paolo; Grandi, Claudio; Guiducci, Luigi; Marcellini, Stefano; Masetti, Gianni; Montanari, Alessandro; Navarria, Francesco; Perrotta, Andrea; Rossi, Antonio; Rovelli, Tiziano; Siroli, Gian Piero; Tosi, Nicolò; Travaglini, Riccardo; Albergo, Sebastiano; Cappello, Gigi; Chiorboli, Massimiliano; Costa, Salvatore; Giordano, Ferdinando; Potenza, Renato; Tricomi, Alessia; Tuve, Cristina; Barbagli, Giuseppe; Ciulli, Vitaliano; Civinini, Carlo; D'Alessandro, Raffaello; Focardi, Ettore; Gallo, Elisabetta; Gonzi, Sandro; Gori, Valentina; Lenzi, Piergiulio; Meschini, Marco; Paoletti, Simone; Sguazzoni, Giacomo; Tropiano, Antonio; Benussi, Luigi; Bianco, Stefano; Fabbri, Franco; Piccolo, Davide; Ferretti, Roberta; Ferro, Fabrizio; Lo Vetere, Maurizio; Robutti, Enrico; Tosi, Silvano; Dinardo, Mauro Emanuele; Fiorendi, Sara; Gennai, Simone; Gerosa, Raffaele; Ghezzi, Alessio; Govoni, Pietro; Lucchini, Marco Toliman; Malvezzi, Sandra; Manzoni, Riccardo Andrea; Martelli, Arabella; Marzocchi, Badder; Menasce, Dario; Moroni, Luigi; Paganoni, Marco; Pedrini, Daniele; Ragazzi, Stefano; Redaelli, Nicola; Tabarelli de Fatis, Tommaso; Buontempo, Salvatore; Cavallo, Nicola; Di Guida, Salvatore; Fabozzi, Francesco; Iorio, Alberto Orso Maria; Lista, Luca; Meola, Sabino; Merola, Mario; Paolucci, Pierluigi; Azzi, Patrizia; Bacchetta, Nicola; Bisello, Dario; Branca, Antonio; Carlin, Roberto; Checchia, Paolo; Dall'Osso, Martino; Dorigo, Tommaso; Dosselli, Umberto; Gasparini, Fabrizio; Gasparini, Ugo; Gozzelino, Andrea; Kanishchev, Konstantin; Lacaprara, Stefano; Margoni, Martino; Meneguzzo, Anna Teresa; Pazzini, Jacopo; Pozzobon, Nicola; Ronchese, Paolo; Simonetto, Franco; Torassa, Ezio; Tosi, Mia; Zotto, Pierluigi; Zucchetta, Alberto; Zumerle, Gianni; Gabusi, Michele; Ratti, Sergio P; Re, Valerio; Riccardi, Cristina; Salvini, Paola; Vitulo, Paolo; Biasini, Maurizio; Bilei, Gian Mario; Ciangottini, Diego; Fanò, Livio; Lariccia, Paolo; Mantovani, Giancarlo; Menichelli, Mauro; Saha, Anirban; Santocchia, Attilio; Spiezia, Aniello; Androsov, Konstantin; Azzurri, Paolo; Bagliesi, Giuseppe; Bernardini, Jacopo; Boccali, Tommaso; Broccolo, Giuseppe; Castaldi, Rino; Ciocci, Maria Agnese; Dell'Orso, Roberto; Donato, Silvio; Fedi, Giacomo; Fiori, Francesco; Foà, Lorenzo; Giassi, Alessandro; Grippo, Maria Teresa; Ligabue, Franco; Lomtadze, Teimuraz; Martini, Luca; Messineo, Alberto; Moon, Chang-Seong; Palla, Fabrizio; Rizzi, Andrea; Savoy-Navarro, Aurore; Serban, Alin Titus; Spagnolo, Paolo; Squillacioti, Paola; Tenchini, Roberto; Tonelli, Guido; Venturi, Andrea; Verdini, Piero Giorgio; Vernieri, Caterina; Barone, Luciano; Cavallari, Francesca; D'imperio, Giulia; Del Re, Daniele; Diemoz, Marcella; Jorda, Clara; Longo, Egidio; Margaroli, Fabrizio; Meridiani, Paolo; Micheli, Francesco; Organtini, Giovanni; Paramatti, Riccardo; Rahatlou, Shahram; Rovelli, Chiara; Santanastasio, Francesco; Soffi, Livia; Traczyk, Piotr; Amapane, Nicola; Arcidiacono, Roberta; Argiro, Stefano; Arneodo, Michele; Bellan, Riccardo; Biino, Cristina; Cartiglia, Nicolo; Casasso, Stefano; Costa, Marco; Covarelli, Roberto; Degano, Alessandro; Demaria, Natale; Finco, Linda; Mariotti, Chiara; Maselli, Silvia; Migliore, Ernesto; Monaco, Vincenzo; Musich, Marco; Obertino, Maria Margherita; Pacher, Luca; Pastrone, Nadia; Pelliccioni, Mario; Pinna Angioni, Gian Luca; Potenza, Alberto; Romero, Alessandra; Ruspa, Marta; Sacchi, Roberto; Solano, Ada; Staiano, Amedeo; Tamponi, Umberto; Belforte, Stefano; Candelise, Vieri; Casarsa, Massimo; Cossutti, Fabio; Della Ricca, Giuseppe; Gobbo, Benigno; La Licata, Chiara; Marone, Matteo; Schizzi, Andrea; Umer, Tomo; Zanetti, Anna; Chang, Sunghyun; Kropivnitskaya, Anna; Nam, Soon-Kwon; Kim, Dong Hee; Kim, Gui Nyun; Kim, Min Suk; Kong, Dae Jung; Lee, Sangeun; Oh, Young Do; Park, Hyangkyu; Sakharov, Alexandre; Son, Dong-Chul; Kim, Tae Jeong; Ryu, Min Sang; Kim, Jae Yool; Moon, Dong Ho; Song, Sanghyeon; Choi, Suyong; Gyun, Dooyeon; Hong, Byung-Sik; Jo, Mihee; Kim, Hyunchul; Kim, Yongsun; Lee, Byounghoon; Lee, Kyong Sei; Park, Sung Keun; Roh, Youn; Yoo, Hwi Dong; Choi, Minkyoo; Kim, Ji Hyun; Park, Inkyu; Ryu, Geonmo; Choi, Young-Il; Choi, Young Kyu; Goh, Junghwan; Kim, Donghyun; Kwon, Eunhyang; Lee, Jongseok; Yu, Intae; Juodagalvis, Andrius; Komaragiri, Jyothsna Rani; Md Ali, Mohd Adli Bin; Wan Abdullah, Wan Ahmad Tajuddin; Casimiro Linares, Edgar; Castilla-Valdez, Heriberto; De La Cruz-Burelo, Eduard; Heredia-de La Cruz, Ivan; Hernandez-Almada, Alberto; Lopez-Fernandez, Ricardo; Sánchez Hernández, Alberto; Carrillo Moreno, Salvador; Vazquez Valencia, Fabiola; Pedraza, Isabel; Salazar Ibarguen, Humberto Antonio; Morelos Pineda, Antonio; Krofcheck, David; Butler, Philip H; Reucroft, Steve; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Muhammad; Hassan, Qamar; Hoorani, Hafeez R; Khan, Wajid Ali; Khurshid, Taimoor; Shoaib, Muhammad; Bialkowska, Helena; Bluj, Michal; Boimska, Bożena; Frueboes, Tomasz; Górski, Maciej; Kazana, Malgorzata; Nawrocki, Krzysztof; Romanowska-Rybinska, Katarzyna; Szleper, Michal; Zalewski, Piotr; Brona, Grzegorz; Bunkowski, Karol; Cwiok, Mikolaj; Dominik, Wojciech; Doroba, Krzysztof; Kalinowski, Artur; Konecki, Marcin; Krolikowski, Jan; Misiura, Maciej; Olszewski, Michał; Bargassa, Pedrame; Beirão Da Cruz E Silva, Cristóvão; Faccioli, Pietro; Ferreira Parracho, Pedro Guilherme; Gallinaro, Michele; Lloret Iglesias, Lara; Nguyen, Federico; Rodrigues Antunes, Joao; Seixas, Joao; Varela, Joao; Vischia, Pietro; Afanasiev, Serguei; Bunin, Pavel; Gavrilenko, Mikhail; Golutvin, Igor; Gorbunov, Ilya; Kamenev, Alexey; Karjavin, Vladimir; Konoplyanikov, Viktor; Lanev, Alexander; Malakhov, Alexander; Matveev, Viktor; Moisenz, Petr; Palichik, Vladimir; Perelygin, Victor; Shmatov, Sergey; Skatchkov, Nikolai; Smirnov, Vitaly; Zarubin, Anatoli; Golovtsov, Victor; Ivanov, Yury; Kim, Victor; Kuznetsova, Ekaterina; Levchenko, Petr; Murzin, Victor; Oreshkin, Vadim; Smirnov, Igor; Sulimov, Valentin; Uvarov, Lev; Vavilov, Sergey; Vorobyev, Alexey; Vorobyev, Andrey; Andreev, Yuri; Dermenev, Alexander; Gninenko, Sergei; Golubev, Nikolai; Kirsanov, Mikhail; Krasnikov, Nikolai; Pashenkov, Anatoli; Tlisov, Danila; Toropin, Alexander; Epshteyn, Vladimir; Gavrilov, Vladimir; Lychkovskaya, Natalia; Popov, Vladimir; Pozdnyakov, Ivan; Safronov, Grigory; Semenov, Sergey; Spiridonov, Alexander; Stolin, Viatcheslav; Vlasov, Evgueni; Zhokin, Alexander; Andreev, Vladimir; Azarkin, Maksim; Dremin, Igor; Kirakosyan, Martin; Leonidov, Andrey; Mesyats, Gennady; Rusakov, Sergey V; Vinogradov, Alexey; Belyaev, Andrey; Boos, Edouard; Bunichev, Viacheslav; Dubinin, Mikhail; Dudko, Lev; Ershov, Alexander; Gribushin, Andrey; Klyukhin, Vyacheslav; Kodolova, Olga; Lokhtin, Igor; Obraztsov, Stepan; Petrushanko, Sergey; Savrin, Viktor; Azhgirey, Igor; Bayshev, Igor; Bitioukov, Sergei; Kachanov, Vassili; Kalinin, Alexey; Konstantinov, Dmitri; Krychkine, Victor; Petrov, Vladimir; Ryutin, Roman; Sobol, Andrei; Tourtchanovitch, Leonid; Troshin, Sergey; Tyurin, Nikolay; Uzunian, Andrey; Volkov, Alexey; Adzic, Petar; Ekmedzic, Marko; Milosevic, Jovan; Rekovic, Vladimir; Alcaraz Maestre, Juan; Battilana, Carlo; Calvo, Enrique; Cerrada, Marcos; Chamizo Llatas, Maria; Colino, Nicanor; De La Cruz, Begona; Delgado Peris, Antonio; Domínguez Vázquez, Daniel; Escalante Del Valle, Alberto; Fernandez Bedoya, Cristina; Fernández Ramos, Juan Pablo; Flix, Jose; Fouz, Maria Cruz; Garcia-Abia, Pablo; Gonzalez Lopez, Oscar; Goy Lopez, Silvia; Hernandez, Jose M; Josa, Maria Isabel; Navarro De Martino, Eduardo; Pérez-Calero Yzquierdo, Antonio María; Puerta Pelayo, Jesus; Quintario Olmeda, Adrián; Redondo, Ignacio; Romero, Luciano; Senghi Soares, Mara; Albajar, Carmen; de Trocóniz, Jorge F; Missiroli, Marino; Moran, Dermot; Brun, Hugues; Cuevas, Javier; Fernandez Menendez, Javier; Folgueras, Santiago; Gonzalez Caballero, Isidro; Brochero Cifuentes, Javier Andres; Cabrillo, Iban Jose; Calderon, Alicia; Duarte Campderros, Jordi; Fernandez, Marcos; Gomez, Gervasio; Graziano, Alberto; Lopez Virto, Amparo; Marco, Jesus; Marco, Rafael; Martinez Rivero, Celso; Matorras, Francisco; Munoz Sanchez, Francisca Javiela; Piedra Gomez, Jonatan; Rodrigo, Teresa; Rodríguez-Marrero, Ana Yaiza; Ruiz-Jimeno, Alberto; Scodellaro, Luca; Vila, Ivan; Vilar Cortabitarte, Rocio; Abbaneo, Duccio; Auffray, Etiennette; Auzinger, Georg; Bachtis, Michail; Baillon, Paul; Ball, Austin; Barney, David; Benaglia, Andrea; Bendavid, Joshua; Benhabib, Lamia; Benitez, Jose F; Bloch, Philippe; Bocci, Andrea; Bonato, Alessio; Bondu, Olivier; Botta, Cristina; Breuker, Horst; Camporesi, Tiziano; Cerminara, Gianluca; Colafranceschi, Stefano; D'Alfonso, Mariarosaria; D'Enterria, David; Dabrowski, Anne; David Tinoco Mendes, Andre; De Guio, Federico; De Roeck, Albert; De Visscher, Simon; Di Marco, Emanuele; Dobson, Marc; Dordevic, Milos; Dorney, Brian; Dupont-Sagorin, Niels; Elliott-Peisert, Anna; Franzoni, Giovanni; Funk, Wolfgang; Gigi, Dominique; Gill, Karl; Giordano, Domenico; Girone, Maria; Glege, Frank; Guida, Roberto; Gundacker, Stefan; Guthoff, Moritz; Hammer, Josef; Hansen, Magnus; Harris, Philip; Hegeman, Jeroen; Innocente, Vincenzo; Janot, Patrick; Kousouris, Konstantinos; Krajczar, Krisztian; Lecoq, Paul; Lourenco, Carlos; Magini, Nicolo; Malgeri, Luca; Mannelli, Marcello; Marrouche, Jad; Masetti, Lorenzo; Meijers, Frans; Mersi, Stefano; Meschi, Emilio; Moortgat, Filip; Morovic, Srecko; Mulders, Martijn; Orfanelli, Styliani; Orsini, Luciano; Pape, Luc; Perez, Emmanuelle; Petrilli, Achille; Petrucciani, Giovanni; Pfeiffer, Andreas; Pimiä, Martti; Piparo, Danilo; Plagge, Michael; Racz, Attila; Rolandi, Gigi; Rovere, Marco; Sakulin, Hannes; Schäfer, Christoph; Schwick, Christoph; Sharma, Archana; Siegrist, Patrice; Silva, Pedro; Simon, Michal; Sphicas, Paraskevas; Spiga, Daniele; Steggemann, Jan; Stieger, Benjamin; Stoye, Markus; Takahashi, Yuta; Treille, Daniel; Tsirou, Andromachi; Veres, Gabor Istvan; Wardle, Nicholas; Wöhri, Hermine Katharina; Wollny, Heiner; Zeuner, Wolfram Dietrich; Bertl, Willi; Deiters, Konrad; Erdmann, Wolfram; Horisberger, Roland; Ingram, Quentin; Kaestli, Hans-Christian; Kotlinski, Danek; Langenegger, Urs; Renker, Dieter; Rohe, Tilman; Bachmair, Felix; Bäni, Lukas; Bianchini, Lorenzo; Buchmann, Marco-Andrea; Casal, Bruno; Chanon, Nicolas; Dissertori, Günther; Dittmar, Michael; Donegà, Mauro; Dünser, Marc; Eller, Philipp; Grab, Christoph; Hits, Dmitry; Hoss, Jan; Kasieczka, Gregor; Lustermann, Werner; Mangano, Boris; Marini, Andrea Carlo; Marionneau, Matthieu; Martinez Ruiz del Arbol, Pablo; Masciovecchio, Mario; Meister, Daniel; Mohr, Niklas; Musella, Pasquale; Nägeli, Christoph; Nessi-Tedaldi, Francesca; Pandolfi, Francesco; Pauss, Felicitas; Perrozzi, Luca; Peruzzi, Marco; Quittnat, Milena; Rebane, Liis; Rossini, Marco; Starodumov, Andrei; Takahashi, Maiko; Theofilatos, Konstantinos; Wallny, Rainer; Weber, Hannsjoerg Artur; Amsler, Claude; Canelli, Maria Florencia; Chiochia, Vincenzo; De Cosa, Annapaola; Hinzmann, Andreas; Hreus, Tomas; Kilminster, Benjamin; Lange, Clemens; Ngadiuba, Jennifer; Pinna, Deborah; Robmann, Peter; Ronga, Frederic Jean; Taroni, Silvia; Yang, Yong; Cardaci, Marco; Chen, Kuan-Hsin; Ferro, Cristina; Kuo, Chia-Ming; Lin, Willis; Lu, Yun-Ju; Volpe, Roberta; Yu, Shin-Shan; Chang, Paoti; Chang, You-Hao; Chao, Yuan; Chen, Kai-Feng; Chen, Po-Hsun; Dietz, Charles; Grundler, Ulysses; Hou, George Wei-Shu; Liu, Yueh-Feng; 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Raymond, David Mark; Rogerson, Samuel; Rose, Andrew; Seez, Christopher; Sharp, Peter; Tapper, Alexander; Vazquez Acosta, Monica; Virdee, Tejinder; Zenz, Seth Conrad; Cole, Joanne; Hobson, Peter R; Khan, Akram; Kyberd, Paul; Leggat, Duncan; Leslie, Dawn; Reid, Ivan; Symonds, Philip; Teodorescu, Liliana; Turner, Mark; Dittmann, Jay; Hatakeyama, Kenichi; Kasmi, Azeddine; Liu, Hongxuan; Pastika, Nathaniel; Scarborough, Tara; Wu, Zhenbin; Charaf, Otman; Cooper, Seth; Henderson, Conor; Rumerio, Paolo; Avetisyan, Aram; Bose, Tulika; Fantasia, Cory; Lawson, Philip; Richardson, Clint; Rohlf, James; St John, Jason; Sulak, Lawrence; Alimena, Juliette; Berry, Edmund; Bhattacharya, Saptaparna; Christopher, Grant; Cutts, David; Demiragli, Zeynep; Dhingra, Nitish; Ferapontov, Alexey; Garabedian, Alex; Heintz, Ulrich; Laird, Edward; Landsberg, Greg; Mao, Zaixing; Narain, Meenakshi; Sagir, Sinan; Sinthuprasith, Tutanon; Speer, Thomas; Swanson, Joshua; Breedon, Richard; Breto, Guillermo; Calderon De La Barca Sanchez, Manuel; 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Nauenberg, Uriel; Smith, James; Stenson, Kevin; Wagner, Stephen Robert; Alexander, James; Chatterjee, Avishek; Chaves, Jorge; Chu, Jennifer; Dittmer, Susan; Eggert, Nicholas; Mirman, Nathan; Nicolas Kaufman, Gala; Patterson, Juliet Ritchie; Ryd, Anders; Salvati, Emmanuele; Skinnari, Louise; Sun, Werner; Teo, Wee Don; Thom, Julia; Thompson, Joshua; Tucker, Jordan; Weng, Yao; Winstrom, Lucas; Wittich, Peter; Winn, Dave; Abdullin, Salavat; Albrow, Michael; Anderson, Jacob; Apollinari, Giorgio; Bauerdick, Lothar AT; Beretvas, Andrew; Berryhill, Jeffrey; Bhat, Pushpalatha C; Bolla, Gino; Burkett, Kevin; Butler, Joel Nathan; Cheung, Harry; Chlebana, Frank; Cihangir, Selcuk; Elvira, Victor Daniel; Fisk, Ian; Freeman, Jim; Gottschalk, Erik; Gray, Lindsey; Green, Dan; Grünendahl, Stefan; Gutsche, Oliver; Hanlon, Jim; Hare, Daryl; Harris, Robert M; Hirschauer, James; Hooberman, Benjamin; Jindariani, Sergo; Johnson, Marvin; Joshi, Umesh; Klima, Boaz; Kreis, Benjamin; Kwan, Simon; Linacre, Jacob; Lincoln, Don; Lipton, Ron; Liu, Tiehui; Lopes De Sá, Rafael; Lykken, Joseph; Maeshima, Kaori; Marraffino, John Michael; Martinez Outschoorn, Verena Ingrid; Maruyama, Sho; Mason, David; McBride, Patricia; Merkel, Petra; Mishra, Kalanand; Mrenna, Stephen; Nahn, Steve; Newman-Holmes, Catherine; O'Dell, Vivian; Prokofyev, Oleg; Sexton-Kennedy, Elizabeth; Soha, Aron; Spalding, William J; Spiegel, Leonard; Taylor, Lucas; Tkaczyk, Slawek; Tran, Nhan Viet; Uplegger, Lorenzo; Vaandering, Eric Wayne; Vidal, Richard; Whitbeck, Andrew; Whitmore, Juliana; Yang, Fan; Acosta, Darin; Avery, Paul; Bortignon, Pierluigi; Bourilkov, Dimitri; Carver, Matthew; Curry, David; Das, Souvik; De Gruttola, Michele; Di Giovanni, Gian Piero; Field, Richard D; Fisher, Matthew; Furic, Ivan-Kresimir; Hugon, Justin; Konigsberg, Jacobo; Korytov, Andrey; Kypreos, Theodore; Low, Jia Fu; Matchev, Konstantin; Mei, Hualin; Milenovic, Predrag; Mitselmakher, Guenakh; Muniz, Lana; Rinkevicius, Aurelijus; Shchutska, Lesya; Snowball, Matthew; Sperka, David; Yelton, John; Zakaria, Mohammed; Hewamanage, Samantha; Linn, Stephan; Markowitz, Pete; Martinez, German; Rodriguez, Jorge Luis; Adams, Jordon Rowe; Adams, Todd; Askew, Andrew; Bochenek, Joseph; Diamond, Brendan; Haas, Jeff; Hagopian, Sharon; Hagopian, Vasken; Johnson, Kurtis F; Prosper, Harrison; Veeraraghavan, Venkatesh; Weinberg, Marc; Baarmand, Marc M; Hohlmann, Marcus; Kalakhety, Himali; Yumiceva, Francisco; Adams, Mark Raymond; Apanasevich, Leonard; Berry, Douglas; Betts, Russell Richard; Bucinskaite, Inga; Cavanaugh, Richard; Evdokimov, Olga; Gauthier, Lucie; Gerber, Cecilia Elena; Hofman, David Jonathan; Kurt, Pelin; O'Brien, Christine; Sandoval Gonzalez, Irving Daniel; Silkworth, Christopher; Turner, Paul; Varelas, Nikos; Bilki, Burak; Clarida, Warren; Dilsiz, Kamuran; Haytmyradov, Maksat; Khristenko, Viktor; Merlo, Jean-Pierre; Mermerkaya, Hamit; Mestvirishvili, Alexi; Moeller, Anthony; Nachtman, Jane; Ogul, Hasan; Onel, Yasar; Ozok, Ferhat; Penzo, Aldo; Rahmat, Rahmat; 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Alverson, George; Barberis, Emanuela; Baumgartel, Darin; Chasco, Matthew; Massironi, Andrea; Morse, David Michael; Nash, David; Orimoto, Toyoko; Trocino, Daniele; Wang, Ren-Jie; Wood, Darien; Zhang, Jinzhong; Hahn, Kristan Allan; Kubik, Andrew; Mucia, Nicholas; Odell, Nathaniel; Pollack, Brian; Pozdnyakov, Andrey; Schmitt, Michael Henry; Stoynev, Stoyan; Sung, Kevin; Velasco, Mayda; Won, Steven; Brinkerhoff, Andrew; Chan, Kwok Ming; Drozdetskiy, Alexey; Hildreth, Michael; Jessop, Colin; Karmgard, Daniel John; Kellams, Nathan; Lannon, Kevin; Lynch, Sean; Marinelli, Nancy; Musienko, Yuri; Pearson, Tessa; Planer, Michael; Ruchti, Randy; Smith, Geoffrey; Valls, Nil; Wayne, Mitchell; Wolf, Matthias; Woodard, Anna; Antonelli, Louis; Brinson, Jessica; Bylsma, Ben; Durkin, Lloyd Stanley; Flowers, Sean; Hart, Andrew; Hill, Christopher; Hughes, Richard; Kotov, Khristian; Ling, Ta-Yung; Luo, Wuming; Puigh, Darren; Rodenburg, Marissa; Winer, Brian L; Wolfe, Homer; Wulsin, Howard Wells; Driga, Olga; Elmer, Peter; Hardenbrook, Joshua; Hebda, Philip; Koay, Sue Ann; Lujan, Paul; Marlow, Daniel; Medvedeva, Tatiana; Mooney, Michael; Olsen, James; Piroué, Pierre; Quan, Xiaohang; Saka, Halil; Stickland, David; Tully, Christopher; Werner, Jeremy Scott; Zuranski, Andrzej; Brownson, Eric; Malik, Sudhir; Mendez, Hector; Ramirez Vargas, Juan Eduardo; Barnes, Virgil E; Benedetti, Daniele; Bortoletto, Daniela; Gutay, Laszlo; Hu, Zhen; Jha, Manoj; Jones, Matthew; Jung, Kurt; Kress, Matthew; Leonardo, Nuno; Miller, David Harry; Neumeister, Norbert; Primavera, Federica; Radburn-Smith, Benjamin Charles; Shi, Xin; Shipsey, Ian; Silvers, David; Svyatkovskiy, Alexey; Wang, Fuqiang; Xie, Wei; Xu, Lingshan; Zablocki, Jakub; Parashar, Neeti; Stupak, John; Adair, Antony; Akgun, Bora; Ecklund, Karl Matthew; Geurts, Frank JM; Li, Wei; Michlin, Benjamin; Padley, Brian Paul; Redjimi, Radia; Roberts, Jay; Zabel, James; Betchart, Burton; Bodek, Arie; de Barbaro, Pawel; Demina, Regina; Eshaq, Yossof; Ferbel, Thomas; Galanti, Mario; Garcia-Bellido, Aran; Goldenzweig, Pablo; Han, Jiyeon; Harel, Amnon; Hindrichs, Otto; Khukhunaishvili, Aleko; Korjenevski, Sergey; Petrillo, Gianluca; Verzetti, Mauro; Vishnevskiy, Dmitry; Ciesielski, Robert; Demortier, Luc; Goulianos, Konstantin; Mesropian, Christina; Arora, Sanjay; Barker, Anthony; Chou, John Paul; Contreras-Campana, Christian; Contreras-Campana, Emmanuel; Duggan, Daniel; Ferencek, Dinko; Gershtein, Yuri; Gray, Richard; Halkiadakis, Eva; Hidas, Dean; Kaplan, Steven; Lath, Amitabh; Panwalkar, Shruti; Park, Michael; Salur, Sevil; Schnetzer, Steve; Sheffield, David; Somalwar, Sunil; Stone, Robert; Thomas, Scott; Thomassen, Peter; Walker, Matthew; Rose, Keith; Spanier, Stefan; York, Andrew; Bouhali, Othmane; Castaneda Hernandez, Alfredo; Dalchenko, Mykhailo; De Mattia, Marco; Dildick, Sven; Eusebi, Ricardo; Flanagan, Will; Gilmore, Jason; Kamon, Teruki; Khotilovich, Vadim; Krutelyov, Vyacheslav; Montalvo, Roy; Osipenkov, Ilya; Pakhotin, Yuriy; Patel, Rishi; Perloff, Alexx; Roe, Jeffrey; Rose, Anthony; Safonov, Alexei; Suarez, Indara; Tatarinov, Aysen; Ulmer, Keith; Akchurin, Nural; Cowden, Christopher; Damgov, Jordan; Dragoiu, Cosmin; Dudero, Phillip Russell; Faulkner, James; Kovitanggoon, Kittikul; Kunori, Shuichi; Lee, Sung Won; Libeiro, Terence; Volobouev, Igor; Appelt, Eric; Delannoy, Andrés G; Greene, Senta; Gurrola, Alfredo; Johns, Willard; Maguire, Charles; Mao, Yaxian; Melo, Andrew; Sharma, Monika; Sheldon, Paul; Snook, Benjamin; Tuo, Shengquan; Velkovska, Julia; Arenton, Michael Wayne; Boutle, Sarah; Cox, Bradley; Francis, Brian; Goodell, Joseph; Hirosky, Robert; Ledovskoy, Alexander; Li, Hengne; Lin, Chuanzhe; Neu, Christopher; Wolfe, Evan; Wood, John; Clarke, Christopher; Harr, Robert; Karchin, Paul Edmund; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, Chamath; Lamichhane, Pramod; Sturdy, Jared; Belknap, Donald; Carlsmith, Duncan; Cepeda, Maria; Dasu, Sridhara; Dodd, Laura; Duric, Senka; Friis, Evan; Hall-Wilton, Richard; Herndon, Matthew; Hervé, Alain; Klabbers, Pamela; Lanaro, Armando; Lazaridis, Christos; Levine, Aaron; Loveless, Richard; Mohapatra, Ajit; Ojalvo, Isabel; Perry, Thomas; Pierro, Giuseppe Antonio; Polese, Giovanni; Ross, Ian; Sarangi, Tapas; Savin, Alexander; Smith, Wesley H; Taylor, Devin; Vuosalo, Carl; Woods, Nathaniel

    2015-05-14

    Properties of the Higgs boson with mass near 125 GeV are measured in proton-proton collisions with the CMS experiment at the LHC. Comprehensive sets of production and decay measurements are combined. The decay channels include $\\gamma\\gamma$, ZZ, WW, $\\tau\\tau$, bb, and $\\mu\\mu$ pairs. The data samples were collected in 2011 and 2012 and correspond to integrated luminosities of up to 5.1 fb$^{-1}$ at 7 TeV and up to 19.7 fb$^{-1}$ at 8 TeV. From the high-resolution $\\gamma\\gamma$ and ZZ channels, the mass of the Higgs boson is determined to be $\\mathrm{m_H = 125.02\\,^{+0.26}_{-0.27}\\,(stat)\\,^{+0.14} _{-0.15}\\,(syst)\\, GeV}$. For this mass value, the event yields obtained in the different analyses tagging specific decay channels and production mechanisms are consistent with those expected for the standard model Higgs boson. The combined best-fit signal relative to the standard model expectation is $\\mathrm{ 1.00 \\pm 0.09 (stat)\\,^{+0.08}_{-0.07}\\, (theo) \\pm 0.07 (syst) }$ at the measured mass. The couplings ...

  10. Characteristics of persistent spin current components in a quasi-periodic Fibonacci ring with spin–orbit interactions: Prediction of spin–orbit coupling and on-site energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patra, Moumita; Maiti, Santanu K., E-mail: santanu.maiti@isical.ac.in

    2016-12-15

    In the present work we investigate the behavior of all three components of persistent spin current in a quasi-periodic Fibonacci ring subjected to Rashba and Dresselhaus spin–orbit interactions. Analogous to persistent charge current in a conducting ring where electrons gain a Berry phase in presence of magnetic flux, spin Berry phase is associated during the motion of electrons in presence of a spin–orbit field which is responsible for the generation of spin current. The interplay between two spin–orbit fields along with quasi-periodic Fibonacci sequence on persistent spin current is described elaborately, and from our analysis, we can estimate the strength of any one of two spin–orbit couplings together with on-site energy, provided the other is known. - Highlights: • Determination of Rashba and Dresselhaus spin–orbit fields is discussed. • Characteristics of all three components of spin current are explored. • Possibility of estimating on-site energy is given. • Results can be generalized to any lattice models.

  11. WALS Prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magnus, J.R.; Wang, W.; Zhang, Xinyu

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: Prediction under model uncertainty is an important and difficult issue. Traditional prediction methods (such as pretesting) are based on model selection followed by prediction in the selected model, but the reported prediction and the reported prediction variance ignore the uncertainty

  12. Number of generations related to coupling constants by confusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, D.L.; Nielsen, H.B.

    1987-01-01

    In the context of random dynamics, the mechanism of confusion is used to obtain a relation between the number of generations and standard model coupling constants. Preliminary results predict the existence of four generations. (orig.)

  13. Monlinear fish-scale metamaterial via coupled duffing oscillators

    OpenAIRE

    Kochetov, Bogdan; Tuz, Vladimir; Mladyonov, Pavel; Prosvirnin, Sergey; Kochetova, Lyudmila

    2012-01-01

    The dynamic system of two coupled Duffing oscillators is considered in order to predict the optical response of the nonlinear planar fish-scale metamaterial. The direct numerical calculation of meta material response confirms the correctness of the proposed model

  14. Estimativa da produção de sedimentos mediante uso de um modelo hidrossedimentológico acoplado a um SIG Sediment yield prediction through the use of a runoff-erosion model coupled to a GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richarde M. da Silva

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available O Kineros é um modelo hidrossedimentológico usado para se estimar a vazão e a produção de sedimentos em bacias urbanas e rurais. No presente trabalho, o modelo foi aplicado à bacia do rio Pirapama, localizada na zona litorânea do Estado de Pernambuco, cujos resultados foram acoplados a um SIG com o objetivo de identificar, temporal e espacialmente, os principais locais em que o processo de erosão foi mais atuante na bacia do rio Pirapama. O modelo foi calibrado com dados diários de 1990 a 2001 de dois postos pluviométricos. Através do acoplamento dos resultados da modelagem no SIG, foi possível a identificação das principais áreas susceptíveis ao processo erosivo. Os resultados da produção de sedimentos na bacia mostraram que os planos com maior produção produziram mais de 200 t ha-1 ano-1, perfazendo o total de 653.079 t, correspondentes a uma área de 67,87 km² (11,3% da área total da bacia revelando, assim, que grande parte da bacia é realmente susceptível ao processo de erosão. Este trabalho mostra que o modelo Kineros é viável para bacias maiores que 100 km² e o seu acoplamento ao SIG é de grande valia para a identificação e análise das principais áreas de produção de sedimentos na bacia deste rio podendo ser, assim, considerado ferramenta promissora para simulação da produção de sedimentos em bacias hidrográficas do nordeste brasileiro.Kineros is a runoff-erosion model used to compute runoff and sediment yield in urban and rural basins. In this paper, the model was applied to the Pirapama river basin, located in the coastal zone of the State of Pernambuco. The obtained results were linked to a GIS in order to temporally and spatially identify the areas susceptible to the erosion process within the Pirapama river basin. The model was calibrated with daily rainfall data from two raingauges for the period from 1990 to 2001. From the coupling of the modeling results into a GIS, it was possible to

  15. Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

    2017-04-01

    In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them

  16. Plastics pipe couplings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glover, J.B.

    1980-07-01

    A method is described of making a pipe coupling of the type comprising a plastics socket and a resilient annular sealing member secured in the mouth thereof, in which the material of at least one component of the coupling is subjected to irradiation with high energy radiation whereby the material is caused to undergo cross-linking. As examples, the coupling may comprise a polyethylene or plasticised PVC socket the material of which is subjected to irradiation, and the sealing member may be moulded from a thermoplastic elastomer which is subjected to irradiation. (U.K.)

  17. Complex action support from coincidences of couplings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, H.B.

    2011-01-01

    Our model (Refs. 1–7) with a complex action in a functional integral formulation with path integrals extending over all times, both past and future, is reviewed. Several numerical relations between coupling constants are presented as supporting evidence. The new evidence is that several more hitherto unexplained coincidences are explained by our model: (1) The "scale problem" is solved because the Higgs field expectation value is predicted to be very small compared to say some fundamental scale, that might be the Planck scale. (2) The Higgs VEV need not be just zero, but rather is predicted to be so that the running top-quark Yukawa coupling just is about to be unity at this scale; in this way the (weak) scale easily becomes "exponentially small." Instead of the top-Yukawa we should rather say the highest flavor Yukawa coupling here. These predictions are only achieved by allowing the principle of minimization of the imaginary part of the action SI(history) to a certain extent adjust some coupling constants in addition to the initial conditions. If supersymmetric partners are not found at LHC it would strengthen the need for a "solution" to the hierarchy problem in our direction of an explanation via a fine-tuning scheme inside the Standard Model, from say minimizing "the imaginary part of the action" in our complex action model. (author)

  18. On coupling fluid plasma and kinetic neutral physics models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Joseph

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The coupled fluid plasma and kinetic neutral physics equations are analyzed through theory and simulation of benchmark cases. It is shown that coupling methods that do not treat the coupling rates implicitly are restricted to short time steps for stability. Fast charge exchange, ionization and recombination coupling rates exist, even after constraining the solution by requiring that the neutrals are at equilibrium. For explicit coupling, the present implementation of Monte Carlo correlated sampling techniques does not allow for complete convergence in slab geometry. For the benchmark case, residuals decay with particle number and increase with grid size, indicating that they scale in a manner that is similar to the theoretical prediction for nonlinear bias error. Progress is reported on implementation of a fully implicit Jacobian-free Newton–Krylov coupling scheme. The present block Jacobi preconditioning method is still sensitive to time step and methods that better precondition the coupled system are under investigation.

  19. Coupling in the Tevatron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gelfand, N.M.

    1994-12-01

    The performance of the Fermilab Tevatron Collider at the commencement of run Ib was far below expectations. After a frustrating period of several months, a low-β quad downstream of the interaction point at B0 was found to be rolled. This rolled quadrupole coupled the horizontal and vertical motion of the Tevatron beams. It also made matching the beam from the Main Ring to the Tevatron impossible, resulting in emittance blow up on injection. The net result of the roll was a significant reduction in the Tevatron luminosity. When the roll in the quadrupole was corrected the performance of the Tevatron improved dramatically. This note will discuss the experimental data indicating the presence of coupling and subsequent calculations which show how coupling an affect the luminosity. It is not intended to exhaust a discussion of coupling, which hopefully will be understood well enough to be discussed in a subsequent note

  20. Coupled transverse motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teng, L.C.

    1989-01-01

    The magnetic field in an accelerator or a storage ring is usually so designed that the horizontal (x) and the vertical (y) motions of an ion are uncoupled. However, because of imperfections in construction and alignment, some small coupling is unavoidable. In this lecture, we discuss in a general way what is known about the behaviors of coupled motions in two degrees-of-freedom. 11 refs., 6 figs

  1. Coupling of the Models of Human Physiology and Thermal Comfort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokorny, J.; Jicha, M.

    2013-04-01

    A coupled model of human physiology and thermal comfort was developed in Dymola/Modelica. A coupling combines a modified Tanabe model of human physiology and thermal comfort model developed by Zhang. The Coupled model allows predicting the thermal sensation and comfort of both local and overall from local boundary conditions representing ambient and personal factors. The aim of this study was to compare prediction of the Coupled model with the Fiala model prediction and experimental data. Validation data were taken from the literature, mainly from the validation manual of software Theseus-FE [1]. In the paper validation of the model for very light physical activities (1 met) indoor environment with temperatures from 12 °C up to 48 °C is presented. The Coupled model predicts mean skin temperature for cold, neutral and warm environment well. However prediction of core temperature in cold environment is inaccurate and very affected by ambient temperature. Evaluation of thermal comfort in warm environment is supplemented by skin wettedness prediction. The Coupled model is designed for non-uniform and transient environmental conditions; it is also suitable simulation of thermal comfort in vehicles cabins. The usage of the model is limited for very light physical activities up to 1.2 met only.

  2. Coupling of the Models of Human Physiology and Thermal Comfort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jicha M.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A coupled model of human physiology and thermal comfort was developed in Dymola/Modelica. A coupling combines a modified Tanabe model of human physiology and thermal comfort model developed by Zhang. The Coupled model allows predicting the thermal sensation and comfort of both local and overall from local boundary conditions representing ambient and personal factors. The aim of this study was to compare prediction of the Coupled model with the Fiala model prediction and experimental data. Validation data were taken from the literature, mainly from the validation manual of software Theseus–FE [1]. In the paper validation of the model for very light physical activities (1 met indoor environment with temperatures from 12 °C up to 48 °C is presented. The Coupled model predicts mean skin temperature for cold, neutral and warm environment well. However prediction of core temperature in cold environment is inaccurate and very affected by ambient temperature. Evaluation of thermal comfort in warm environment is supplemented by skin wettedness prediction. The Coupled model is designed for non-uniform and transient environmental conditions; it is also suitable simulation of thermal comfort in vehicles cabins. The usage of the model is limited for very light physical activities up to 1.2 met only.

  3. Evidence for the role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the ocean heat uptake in hiatus prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasini, Antonello; Triacca, Umberto; Attanasio, Alessandro

    2017-08-01

    The recent hiatus in global temperature at the surface has been analysed by several studies, mainly using global climate models. The common accepted picture is that since the late 1990s, the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcings has been counterbalanced by other factors, e.g., a decrease in natural forcings, augmented ocean heat storage and negative phases of ocean-atmosphere-coupled oscillation patterns. Here, simple vector autoregressive models are used for forecasting the temperature hiatus in the period 2001-2014. This gives new insight into the problem of understanding the ocean contribution (in terms of heat uptake and atmosphere-ocean-coupled oscillations) to the appearance of this recent hiatus. In particular, considering data about the ocean heat content until a depth of 700 m and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is necessary for correctly forecasting the hiatus, so catching both trend and interannual variability. Our models also show that the ocean heat uptake is substantially driven by the natural component of the total radiative forcing at a decadal time scale, confining the importance of the anthropogenic influences to a longer range warming of the ocean.

  4. Climate drift of AMOC, North Atlantic salinity and arctic sea ice in CFSv2 decadal predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Bohua; Zhu, Jieshun; Marx, Lawrence; Wu, Xingren; Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Zhang, Shaoqing; Lu, Jian; Schneider, Edwin K.; Kinter, James L., III

    2015-01-01

    There are potential advantages to extending operational seasonal forecast models to predict decadal variability but major efforts are required to assess the model fidelity for this task. In this study, we examine the North Atlantic climate simulated by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), using a set of ensemble decadal hindcasts and several 30-year simulations initialized from realistic ocean-atmosphere states. It is found that a substantial climate drift occurs in the first few years of the CFSv2 hindcasts, which represents a major systematic bias and may seriously affect the model's fidelity for decadal prediction. In particular, it is noted that a major reduction of the upper ocean salinity in the northern North Atlantic weakens the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) significantly. This freshening is likely caused by the excessive freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean and weakened subtropical water transport by the North Atlantic Current. A potential source of the excessive freshwater is the quick melting of sea ice, which also causes unrealistically thin ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. Our sensitivity experiments with adjusted sea ice albedo parameters produce a sustainable ice cover with realistic thickness distribution. It also leads to a moderate increase of the AMOC strength. This study suggests that a realistic freshwater balance, including a proper sea ice feedback, is crucial for simulating the North Atlantic climate and its variability.

  5. The surface energy, water, carbon flux and their intercorrelated seasonality in a global climate-vegetation coupled model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Dan.; Jinjun Ji

    2007-01-01

    The sensible and latent heat fluxes, representatives of the physical exchange processes of energy and water between land and air, are the two crucial variables controlling the surface energy partitioning related to temperature and humidity. The net primary production (NPP), the major carbon flux exchange between vegetation and atmosphere, is of great importance for the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. The fluxes are simulated by a two-way coupled model, Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction Model-Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (AVIM-GOALS) in which the surface physical and physiological processes are coupled with general circulation model (GCM), and the global spatial and temporal variation of the fluxes is studied. The simulated terrestrial surface physical fluxes are consistent with the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis (ERA40) in the global distribution, but the magnitudes are generally 20-40 W/m 2 underestimated. The annual NPP agrees well with the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) NPP data except for the lower value in northern high latitudes. The surface physical fluxes, leaf area index (LAI) and NPP of the global mid-latitudes, especially between 30 deg N-50 deg N, show great variation in annual oscillation amplitudes. And all physical and biological fields in northern mid-latitudes have the largest seasonality with a high statistical significance of 99.9%. The seasonality of surface physical fluxes, LAI and NPP are highly correlated with each other. The meridional three-peak pattern of seasonal change emerges in northern mid-latitudes, which indicates the interaction of topographical gradient variation of surface fluxes and vegetation phenology on these three latitudinal belts

  6. Climate prediction and predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Myles

    2010-05-01

    Climate prediction is generally accepted to be one of the grand challenges of the Geophysical Sciences. What is less widely acknowledged is that fundamental issues have yet to be resolved concerning the nature of the challenge, even after decades of research in this area. How do we verify or falsify a probabilistic forecast of a singular event such as anthropogenic warming over the 21st century? How do we determine the information content of a climate forecast? What does it mean for a modelling system to be "good enough" to forecast a particular variable? How will we know when models and forecasting systems are "good enough" to provide detailed forecasts of weather at specific locations or, for example, the risks associated with global geo-engineering schemes. This talk will provide an overview of these questions in the light of recent developments in multi-decade climate forecasting, drawing on concepts from information theory, machine learning and statistics. I will draw extensively but not exclusively from the experience of the climateprediction.net project, running multiple versions of climate models on personal computers.

  7. Electromagnetic coupling of high-altitude, nuclear electromagnetic pulses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1984-01-01

    We have used scale models to measure the predicted coupling of electromagnetic fields simulating the effects of high-altitude nuclear electromagnetic pulses (HEMP) on the interior surfaces of electronic components. Predictive tools for exterior coupling are adequate. For interior coupling, however, such tools are in their infancy. Our methodological approach combines analytical, computational, and laboratory techniques in a complementary way to take advantage of their separate strengths. Computer models are a promising tool, as they can be used to treat complex objects with arbitrary shapes, dielectrics, and cables, and multiple apertures. Laboratory tests can expand the domain of investigation even further

  8. Coupled thermo-geophysical inversion for permafrost monitoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tomaskovicova, Sona

    temperature dataset within ±0.55 ◦C, provided that the freeze-thaw water content hysteresis was accounted for. The calibrated model predicted the temperature variation in two testing datasets within ±0.32 to ±0.62 ◦C, depending on length of the testing timeseries. The coupled inversion approach showed...... on borehole temperatures. Thermal parameters optimized in coupled inversion predicted the temperature variation in the two testing datasets within ±0 ◦C to 0 ◦C. A number of possibilities and paths for improvement of both coupled and uncoupled optimization approaches has been identified and identification...

  9. Projected coupled cluster theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Yiheng; Henderson, Thomas M; Zhao, Jinmo; Scuseria, Gustavo E

    2017-08-14

    Coupled cluster theory is the method of choice for weakly correlated systems. But in the strongly correlated regime, it faces a symmetry dilemma, where it either completely fails to describe the system or has to artificially break certain symmetries. On the other hand, projected Hartree-Fock theory captures the essential physics of many kinds of strong correlations via symmetry breaking and restoration. In this work, we combine and try to retain the merits of these two methods by applying symmetry projection to broken symmetry coupled cluster wave functions. The non-orthogonal nature of states resulting from the application of symmetry projection operators furnishes particle-hole excitations to all orders, thus creating an obstacle for the exact evaluation of overlaps. Here we provide a solution via a disentanglement framework theory that can be approximated rigorously and systematically. Results of projected coupled cluster theory are presented for molecules and the Hubbard model, showing that spin projection significantly improves unrestricted coupled cluster theory while restoring good quantum numbers. The energy of projected coupled cluster theory reduces to the unprojected one in the thermodynamic limit, albeit at a much slower rate than projected Hartree-Fock.

  10. Radiative corrections to the Higgs couplings in the triplet model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    KIKUCHI, M.

    2014-01-01

    The feature of extended Higgs models can appear in the pattern of deviations from the Standard Model (SM) predictions in coupling constants of the SM-like Higgs boson (h). We can thus discriminate extended Higgs models by precisely measuring the pattern of deviations in the coupling constants of h, even when extra bosons are not found directly. In order to compare the theoretical predictions to the future precision data at the ILC, we must evaluate the theoretical predictions with radiative corrections in various extended Higgs models. In this paper, we give our comprehensive study for radiative corrections to various Higgs boson couplings of h in the minimal Higgs triplet model (HTM). First, we define renormalization conditions in the model, and we calculate the Higgs coupling; gγγ, hWW, hZZ and hhh at the one loop level. We then evaluate deviations in coupling constants of the SM-like Higgs boson from the predictions in the SM. We find that one-loop contributions to these couplings are substantial as compared to their expected measurement accuracies at the ILC. Therefore the HTM has a possibility to be distinguished from the other models by comparing the pattern of deviations in the Higgs boson couplings.

  11. Direction selective structural-acoustic coupled radiator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Hee-Seon; Kim, Yang-Hann

    2005-04-01

    This paper presents a method of designing a structural-acoustic coupled radiator that can emit sound in the desired direction. The structural-acoustic coupled system is consisted of acoustic spaces and wall. The wall composes two plates and an opening, and the wall separates one space that is highly reverberant and the other that is unbounded without any reflection. An equation is developed that predicts energy distribution and energy flow in the two spaces separated by the wall, and its computational examples are presented including near field acoustic characteristics. To design the directional coupled radiator, Pareto optimization method is adapted. An objective is selected to maximize radiation power on a main axis and minimize a side lobe level and a subjective is selected direction of the main axis and dimensions of the walls geometry. Pressure and intensity distribution of the designed radiator is also presented.

  12. Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum – Part 1: experiments and large-scale features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhao

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available A set of coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations using state of the art climate models is now available for the Last Glacial Maximum and the Mid-Holocene through the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2. This study presents the large-scale features of the simulated climates and compares the new model results to those of the atmospheric models from the first phase of the PMIP, for which sea surface temperature was prescribed or computed using simple slab ocean formulations. We consider the large-scale features of the climate change, pointing out some of the major differences between the different sets of experiments. We show in particular that systematic differences between PMIP1 and PMIP2 simulations are due to the interactive ocean, such as the amplification of the African monsoon at the Mid-Holocene or the change in precipitation in mid-latitudes at the LGM. Also the PMIP2 simulations are in general in better agreement with data than PMIP1 simulations.

  13. Tube coupling device

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, William N. (Inventor); Hein, Leopold A. (Inventor)

    1987-01-01

    A first annular ring of a tube coupling device has a keyed opening sized to fit around the nut region of a male coupling, and a second annular ring has a keyed opening sized to fit around the nut of a female coupling. Each ring has mating ratchet teeth and these rings are biased together, thereby engaging these teeth and preventing rotation of these rings. This in turn prevents the rotation of the male nut region with respect to the female nut. For tube-to-bulkhead locking, one facet of one ring is notched, and a pin is pressed into an opening in the bulkhead. This pin is sized to fit within one of the notches in the ring, thereby preventing rotation of this ring with respect to the bulkhead.

  14. Asymptotic solving method for sea-air coupled oscillator ENSO model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Xian-Chun; Yao Jing-Sun; Mo Jia-Qi

    2012-01-01

    The ENSO is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interaction. In this article, we create an asymptotic solving method for the nonlinear system of the ENSO model. The asymptotic solution is obtained. And then we can furnish weather forecasts theoretically and other behaviors and rules for the atmosphere-ocean oscillator of the ENSO. (general)

  15. Strong-coupling approximations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abbott, R.B.

    1984-03-01

    Standard path-integral techniques such as instanton calculations give good answers for weak-coupling problems, but become unreliable for strong-coupling. Here we consider a method of replacing the original potential by a suitably chosen harmonic oscillator potential. Physically this is motivated by the fact that potential barriers below the level of the ground-state energy of a quantum-mechanical system have little effect. Numerically, results are good, both for quantum-mechanical problems and for massive phi 4 field theory in 1 + 1 dimensions. 9 references, 6 figures

  16. Coupled moderator neutronics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, G.J.; Pitcher, E.J.; Ferguson, P.D.

    1995-01-01

    Optimizing the neutronic performance of a coupled-moderator system for a Long-Pulse Spallation Source is a new and challenging area for the spallation target-system designer. For optimal performance of a neutron source, it is essential to have good communication with instrument scientists to obtain proper design criteria and continued interaction with mechanical, thermal-hydraulic, and materials engineers to attain a practical design. A good comprehension of the basics of coupled-moderator neutronics will aid in the proper design of a target system for a Long-Pulse Spallation Source

  17. Coupled nonlinear oscillators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandra, J; Scott, A C

    1983-01-01

    Topics discussed include transitions in weakly coupled nonlinear oscillators, singularly perturbed delay-differential equations, and chaos in simple laser systems. Papers are presented on truncated Navier-Stokes equations in a two-dimensional torus, on frequency locking in Josephson point contacts, and on soliton excitations in Josephson tunnel junctions. Attention is also given to the nonlinear coupling of radiation pulses to absorbing anharmonic molecular media, to aspects of interrupted coarse-graining in stimulated excitation, and to a statistical analysis of long-term dynamic irregularity in an exactly soluble quantum mechanical model.

  18. Apodized coupled resonator waveguides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capmany, J; Muñoz, P; Domenech, J D; Muriel, M A

    2007-08-06

    In this paper we propose analyse the apodisation or windowing of the coupling coefficients in the unit cells of coupled resonator waveguide devices (CROWs) as a means to reduce the level of secondary sidelobes in the bandpass characteristic of their transfer functions. This technique is regularly employed in the design of digital filters and has been applied as well in the design of other photonic devices such as corrugated waveguide filters and fiber Bragg gratings. The apodisation of both Type-I and Type-II structures is discussed for several windowing functions.

  19. Coupling in reflector arrays

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appel-Hansen, Jørgen

    1968-01-01

    In order to reduce the space occupied by a reflector array, it is desirable to arrange the array antennas as close to each other as possible; however, in this case coupling between the array antennas will reduce the reflecting properties of the reflector array. The purpose of the present communic......In order to reduce the space occupied by a reflector array, it is desirable to arrange the array antennas as close to each other as possible; however, in this case coupling between the array antennas will reduce the reflecting properties of the reflector array. The purpose of the present...

  20. Overtreatment in couples with unexplained infertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kersten, F A M; Hermens, R P G M; Braat, D D M; Hoek, A; Mol, B W J; Goddijn, M; Nelen, W L D M

    2015-01-01

    What is the percentage of overtreatment, i.e. fertility treatment started too early, in couples with unexplained infertility who were eligible for tailored expectant management? Overtreatment occurred in 36% of couples with unexplained infertility who were eligible for an expectant management of at least 6 months. Prognostic models in reproductive medicine can help to identify infertile couples that would benefit from fertility treatment. In couples with unexplained infertility with a good chance of natural conception within 1 year, based on the Hunault prediction model, an expectant management of 6-12 months, as recommended in international fertility guidelines, prevents unnecessary treatment. A retrospective cohort study in 25 participating clinics, with follow-up of all couples who were seen for infertility in 2011-2012. In all, 9818 couples were seen for infertility in the participating clinics. Couples were eligible to participate if they were diagnosed with unexplained infertility and had a good prognosis of natural conception (>30%) within 1 year based on the Hunault prediction model. Data to assess overtreatment were collected from medical records. Multilevel regression analyses were performed to investigate associations of overtreatment with patient and clinic characteristics. Five hundred and forty-four couples eligible for expectant management were included in this study. Among these, overtreatment, i.e. starting medically assisted reproduction within 6 months, occurred in 36%. The underlying quality indicators showed that in 34% no prognosis was calculated and that in 42% expectant management was not recommended. Finally, 16% of the couples for whom a correct recommendation of expectant management for at least 6 months was made, started treatment within 6 months anyway. Overtreatment was associated with childlessness, higher female age and a longer duration of infertility. No associations between overtreatment and clinic characteristics were found. The

  1. ElectroWeak Bosons Couplings

    CERN Document Server

    Ouraou, Ahmimed; The ATLAS collaboration

    2016-01-01

    Latest results on the measurement of gauge boson couplings, from ATLAS and CMS at the LHC, are presented. This review starts with an introduction to boson couplings, then the measurements of Triple and Quartic Couplings are described. And finally, limits on anomalous couplings are summarized.

  2. Anomalous top magnetic couplings

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2012-11-09

    Nov 9, 2012 ... Corresponding author. E-mail: remartinezm@unal.edu.co. Abstract. The real and imaginary parts of the one-loop electroweak contributions to the left and right tensorial anomalous couplings of the tbW vertex in the Standard Model (SM) are computed. Keywords. Top; anomalous. PACS Nos 14.65.Ha; 12.15 ...

  3. HIV-discordant couples

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Winnie

    2006-06-02

    Jun 2, 2006 ... These may broadly be divided into factors that affect the transmissibility of HIV between couples per sex act and factors influencing the number of sex acts during which exposure may occur. Examples of the former include use of condoms or other barrier methods and certain sexual behaviours, such as sex.

  4. Gravitationally coupled electroweak monopole

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Y.M., E-mail: ymcho7@konkuk.ac.kr [Administration Building 310-4, Konkuk University, Seoul 143-701 (Korea, Republic of); School of Physics and Astronomy, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of); Kimm, Kyoungtae [Faculty of Liberal Education, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-747 (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, J.H. [Department of Physics, College of Natural Sciences, Konkuk University, Seoul 143-701 (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-10

    We present a family of gravitationally coupled electroweak monopole solutions in Einstein–Weinberg–Salam theory. Our result confirms the existence of globally regular gravitating electroweak monopole which changes to the magnetically charged black hole as the Higgs vacuum value approaches to the Planck scale. Moreover, our solutions could provide a more accurate description of the monopole stars and magnetically charged black holes.

  5. Distributed Model Predictive Control via Dual Decomposition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biegel, Benjamin; Stoustrup, Jakob; Andersen, Palle

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents dual decomposition as a means to coordinate a number of subsystems coupled by state and input constraints. Each subsystem is equipped with a local model predictive controller while a centralized entity manages the subsystems via prices associated with the coupling constraints...

  6. The impact of resolution on the adjustment and decadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hodson, Daniel L.R.; Sutton, Rowan T. [University of Reading, NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2012-12-15

    Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) exert an important influence on climate, particularly on decadal time scales. Simulation of the MOC in coupled climate models is compromised, to a degree that is unknown, by their lack of fidelity in resolving some of the key processes involved. There is an overarching need to increase the resolution and fidelity of climate models, but also to assess how increases in resolution influence the simulation of key phenomena such as the MOC. In this study we investigate the impact of significantly increasing the (ocean and atmosphere) resolution of a coupled climate model on the simulation of MOC variability by comparing high and low resolution versions of the same model. In both versions, decadal variability of the MOC is closely linked to density anomalies that propagate from the Labrador Sea southward along the deep western boundary. We demonstrate that the MOC adjustment proceeds more rapidly in the higher resolution model due the increased speed of western boundary waves. However, the response of the Atlantic sea surface temperatures to MOC variations is relatively robust - in pattern if not in magnitude - across the two resolutions. The MOC also excites a coupled ocean-atmosphere response in the tropical Atlantic in both model versions. In the higher resolution model, but not the lower resolution model, there is evidence of a significant response in the extratropical atmosphere over the North Atlantic 6 years after a maximum in the MOC. In both models there is evidence of a weak negative feedback on deep density anomalies in the Labrador Sea, and hence on the MOC (with a time scale of approximately ten years). Our results highlight the need for further work to understand the decadal variability of the MOC and its simulation in climate models. (orig.)

  7. Enhancing the Relationship Adjustment of South Asian Canadian Couples Using a Systemic-Constructivist Approach to Couple Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Saunia; Reid, David W

    2016-10-01

    The effectiveness of systemic-constructivist couple therapy (SCCT) in improving the relationship adjustment of South Asian Canadian couples in ways that attend to their culture was evaluated. The SCCT interventions engage partners in reflexive processing of both their own and their partner's ways of construing, and the reciprocity between these two. A core change mechanism of SCCT, couple identity ("we-ness"), that connotes the ability for thinking and experiencing relationally, was coded from verbatim transcripts of partners' within-session dialogue. As predicted, South Asian partners' relationship adjustment improved significantly from the first to final session of SCCT, and concurrent increases in each partner's couple identity mediated such improvements. The implications for considering culture and couple identity in couple therapy are discussed. Video Abstract is found in the online version of the article. © 2016 American Association for Marriage and Family Therapy.

  8. Warthog: Coupling Status Update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hart, Shane W. D. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Reardon, Bradley T. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-06-30

    The Warthog code was developed to couple codes that are developed in both the Multi-Physics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) from Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and SHARP from Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). The initial phase of this work, focused on coupling the neutronics code PROTEUS with the fuel performance code BISON. The main technical challenge involves mapping the power density solution determined by PROTEUS to the fuel in BISON. This presents a challenge since PROTEUS uses the MOAB mesh format, but BISON, like all other MOOSE codes, uses the libMesh format. When coupling the different codes, one must consider that Warthog is a light-weight MOOSE-based program that uses the Data Transfer Kit (DTK) to transfer data between the various mesh types. Users set up inputs for the codes they want to run, and then Warthog transfers the data between them. Currently Warthog supports XSProc from SCALE or the Sub-Group Application Programming Interface (SGAPI) in PROTEUS for generating cross sections. It supports arbitrary geometries using PROTEUS and BISON. DTK will transfer power densities and temperatures between the codes where the domains overlap. In the past fiscal year (FY), much work has gone into demonstrating two-way coupling for simple pin cells of various materials. XSProc was used to calculate the cross sections, which were then passed to PROTEUS in an external file. PROTEUS calculates the fission/power density, and Warthog uses DTK to pass this information to BISON, where it is used as the heat source. BISON then calculates the temperature profile of the pin cell and sends it back to XSProc to obtain the temperature corrected cross sections. This process is repeated until the convergence criteria (tolerance on BISON solve, or number of time steps) is reached. Models have been constructed and run for both uranium oxide and uranium silicide fuels. These models demonstrate a clear difference in power shape that is not accounted for in a

  9. El Nino, La Nina and the Colombian hydrology prediction and forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poveda J, G.; Mesa S, O.J.

    1995-01-01

    The climatic phenomenon known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phenomenon has two phases: El Nino (Warm Phase) and La Nina (Cold phase). Both phases (Warm and cold) insult the Earth Planet hydrology and climatology and particularly the South America tropical zone, something which includes Colombia. This oscillation (Warm and cold) occurs in monthly time scale to multi - annual (until 6 years) time scale. As a rule, El Nino produces stronger and extended dry periods, while La Nina increases rains frequency and produces maximum wealth in water currents. A quantitative analysis of both phases (warm and cold) influence in Colombian rivers wealth measured in 50 different stations is presented. Also the frequency histograms, the average and the typical deviation of wealth monthly average for El Nino years and La Nina years, as well as for the evaluated total period are presented. With the objective of confirming the strong influence that exercise the oceanic- atmospherical phenomena that occur in South Pacific Ocean on Colombian hydrology, correlation analysis with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and temperatures variation on Indian and Pacific Ocean is presented. The topic ENSO phenomenon Predictions and Forecasts with relation to planning of hydraulics resources managing projects at Colombia is discussed

  10. Optically coupled semiconductor device

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumagaya, Naoki

    1988-11-18

    This invention concerns an optically coupled semiconductor device using the light as input signal and a MOS transistor for the output side in order to control on-off of the output side by the input signal which is insulated from the output. Concerning this sort of element, when a MOS transistor and a load resistance are planned to be accumulated on the same chip, a resistor and control of impurity concentration of the channel, etc. become necessary despite that the only formation of a simple P-N junction is enough, for a solar cell, hence cost reduction thereof cannot be done. In order to remove this defect, this invention offers an optically coupled semiconductor device featuring that two solar cells are connected in reverse parallel between the gate sources of the output MOS transistors and an operational light emitting element is individually set facing a respective solar cell. 4 figs.

  11. An operational coupled wave-current forecasting system for the northern Adriatic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, A.; Coluccelli, A.; Deserti, M.; Valentini, A.; Benetazzo, A.; Carniel, S.

    2012-04-01

    Since 2005 an Adriatic implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (AdriaROMS) is being producing operational short-term forecasts (72 hours) of some hydrodynamic properties (currents, sea level, temperature, salinity) of the Adriatic Sea at 2 km horizontal resolution and 20 vertical s-levels, on a daily basis. The main objective of AdriaROMS, which is managed by the Hydro-Meteo-Clima Service (SIMC) of ARPA Emilia Romagna, is to provide useful products for civil protection purposes (sea level forecasts, outputs to run other forecasting models as for saline wedge, oil spills and coastal erosion). In order to improve the forecasts in the coastal area, where most of the attention is focused, a higher resolution model (0.5 km, again with 20 vertical s-levels) has been implemented for the northern Adriatic domain. The new implementation is based on the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System (COAWST)and adopts ROMS for the hydrodynamic and Simulating WAve Nearshore (SWAN) for the wave module, respectively. Air-sea fluxes are computed using forecasts produced by the COSMO-I7 operational atmospheric model. At the open boundary of the high resolution model, temperature, salinity and velocity fields are provided by AdriaROMS while the wave characteristics are provided by an operational SWAN implementation (also managed by SIMC). Main tidal components are imposed as well, derived from a tidal model. Work in progress is oriented now on the validation of model results by means of extensive comparisons with acquired hydrographic measurements (such as CTDs or XBTs from sea-truth campaigns), currents and waves acquired at observational sites (including those of SIMC, CNR-ISMAR network and its oceanographic tower, located off the Venice littoral) and satellite-derived wave-heights data. Preliminary results on the forecast waves denote how, especially during intense storms, the effect of coupling can lead to significant variations in the wave

  12. Magnetic coupling device

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nance, Thomas A [Aiken, SC

    2009-08-18

    A quick connect/disconnect coupling apparatus is provided in which a base member is engaged by a locking housing through a series of interengagement pins. The pins maintain the shaft in a locked position. Upon exposure to an appropriately positioned magnetic field, pins are removed a sufficient distance such that the shaft may be withdrawn from the locking housing. The ability to lock and unlock the connector assembly requires no additional tools or parts apart from a magnetic key.

  13. Coupling of Hidden Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Królikowski, Wojciech

    2016-01-01

    A hypothetic Hidden Sector of the Universe, consisting of sterile fer\\-mions (``sterinos'') and sterile mediating bosons (``sterons'') of mass dimension 1 (not 2!) --- the last described by an antisymmetric tensor field --- requires to exist also a scalar isovector and scalar isoscalar in order to be able to construct electroweak invariant coupling (before spontaneously breaking its symmetry). The introduced scalar isoscalar might be a resonant source for the diphoton excess of 750 GeV, sugge...

  14. Quick torque coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luft, Peter A [El Cerrito, CA

    2009-05-12

    A coupling for mechanically connecting modular tubular struts of a positioning apparatus or space frame, comprising a pair of toothed rings (10, 12) attached to separate strut members (16), the teeth (18, 20) of the primary rings (10, 12) mechanically interlocking in both an axial and circumferential manner, and a third part comprising a sliding, toothed collar (14) the teeth (22) of which interlock the teeth (18, 20) of the primary rings (10, 12), preventing them from disengaging, and completely locking the assembly together. A secondary mechanism provides a nesting force for the collar, and/or retains it. The coupling is self-contained and requires no external tools for installation, and can be assembled with gloved hands in demanding environments. No gauging or measured torque is required for assembly. The assembly can easily be visually inspected to determine a "go" or "no-go" status. The coupling is compact and relatively light-weight. Because of it's triply interlocking teeth, the connection is rigid. The connection does not primarily rely on clamps, springs or friction based fasteners, and is therefore reliable in fail-safe applications.

  15. Coupling and decoupling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravenal, E.C.

    1988-01-01

    This paper reports on the prospects of coupling and decoupling for extended deterrence. Thirty-eight years after the foundation of NATO, the defence of Western Europe still rests on the proposition that an American president will invite the destruction of US cities and the incineration of 100 million of its citizens to repel a Soviet incursion or resist a Soviet ultimatum in Western Europe. On its face, America's war plan---never denied by any president from Truman to Reagan, or by any Secretary of State from George Marshall to George Shultz---is the first use of nuclear weapons, if necessary, to defend Europe. Thus America threatens to turn local defeat into global holocaust. But under the surface, America's nuclear commitment to Europe is not so sure. The word that encapsulates this problem is coupling. Not the title of an Updike novel or an anthropological treatise by Margaret Mead, coupling is a term of art used by strategic analysts to connote the integrity of the chain of escalation, from conventional war in Europe, to theatre nuclear weapons, to the final use of America's ultimate strategic weapon

  16. Coupled-resonator optical waveguides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raza, Søren; Grgic, Jure; Pedersen, Jesper Goor

    2010-01-01

    Coupled-resonator optical waveguides hold potential for slow-light propagation of optical pulses. The dispersion properties may adequately be analyzed within the framework of coupled-mode theory. We extend the standard coupled-mode theory for such structures to also include complex-valued paramet......Coupled-resonator optical waveguides hold potential for slow-light propagation of optical pulses. The dispersion properties may adequately be analyzed within the framework of coupled-mode theory. We extend the standard coupled-mode theory for such structures to also include complex...

  17. Earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, P.L.

    1978-01-01

    The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

  18. Performance prediction and flow-field analysis of rotors in hover using a coupled Euler/boundary layer method; Previsions des performances et de l`ecoulement pour des rotors en vol stationnaire par une methode couplee Euler/couche limite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beaumier, P. [ONERA, 92 - Chatillon (France); Castellin, C.; Arnaud, G. [Eurocopter France, 13 - Marignane (France)

    1998-12-31

    The performance prediction of helicopter in hover is of key importance for manufacturers because hover is a design configuration for the definition of a rotor-craft. A lot of efforts have been made for more than 10 years all over the world in order to develop and validate numerical methods based on CFD. An Euler method (WAVES) developed by ONERA and coupled with a boundary layer code (MI3DI) is presented, validated and applied to compute the total performance of rotors with different tip shapes. A new boundary condition for the Euler code has been tested and enables better calculation by eliminating `numerical` recirculation. The code has demonstrated its ability to rank two rotors with different planforms in good agreement with experiment. Under industrial requirements new grid strategies have been studied and should allow to reduce CPU time consumption. It is shown that WAVES/MI3DI can be efficiently used in the aerodynamic design process of a new rotor. (authors) 7 refs.

  19. Measurement of charged current triple gauge boson couplings using W pairs at LEP

    CERN Document Server

    Abbiendi, G.; Akesson, P.F.; Alexander, G.; Allison, John; Amaral, P.; Anagnostou, G.; Anderson, K.J.; Arcelli, S.; Asai, S.; Axen, D.; Azuelos, G.; Bailey, I.; Barberio, E.; Barlow, R.J.; Batley, R.J.; Bechtle, P.; Behnke, T.; Bell, Kenneth Watson; Bell, P.J.; Bella, G.; Bellerive, A.; Benelli, G.; Bethke, S.; Biebel, O.; Boeriu, O.; Bock, P.; Boutemeur, M.; Braibant, S.; Brigliadori, L.; Brown, Robert M.; Buesser, K.; Burckhart, H.J.; Campana, S.; Carnegie, R.K.; Caron, B.; Carter, A.A.; Carter, J.R.; Chang, C.Y.; Charlton, David G.; Csilling, A.; Cuffiani, M.; Dado, S.; De Roeck, A.; De Wolf, E.A.; Desch, K.; Dienes, B.; Donkers, M.; Dubbert, J.; Duchovni, E.; Duckeck, G.; Duerdoth, I.P.; Etzion, E.; Fabbri, F.; Feld, L.; Ferrari, P.; Fiedler, F.; Fleck, I.; Ford, M.; Frey, A.; Furtjes, A.; Gagnon, P.; Gary, John William; Gaycken, G.; Geich-Gimbel, C.; Giacomelli, G.; Giacomelli, P.; Giunta, Marina; Goldberg, J.; Groll, M.; Gross, E.; Grunhaus, J.; Gruwe, M.; Gunther, P.O.; Gupta, A.; Hajdu, C.; Hamann, M.; Hanson, G.G.; Harder, K.; Harel, A.; Harin-Dirac, M.; Hauschild, M.; Hawkes, C.M.; Hawkings, R.; Hemingway, R.J.; Hensel, C.; Herten, G.; Heuer, R.D.; Hill, J.C.; Hoffman, Kara Dion; Horvath, D.; Igo-Kemenes, P.; Ishii, K.; Jeremie, H.; Jovanovic, P.; Junk, T.R.; Kanaya, N.; Kanzaki, J.; Karapetian, G.; Karlen, D.; Kawagoe, K.; Kawamoto, T.; Keeler, R.K.; Kellogg, R.G.; Kennedy, B.W.; Kim, D.H.; Klein, K.; Klier, A.; Kluth, S.; Kobayashi, T.; Kobel, M.; Komamiya, S.; Kormos, Laura L.; Kramer, T.; Krieger, P.; von Krogh, J.; Kruger, K.; Kuhl, T.; Kupper, M.; Lafferty, G.D.; Landsman, H.; Lanske, D.; Layter, J.G.; Leins, A.; Lellouch, D.; Lettso, J.; Levinson, L.; Lillich, J.; Lloyd, S.L.; Loebinger, F.K.; Lu, J.; Ludwig, J.; Macpherson, A.; Mader, W.; Marcellini, S.; Martin, A.J.; Masetti, G.; Mashimo, T.; Mattig, Peter; McDonald, W.J.; McKenna, J.; McMahon, T.J.; McPherson, R.A.; Meijers, F.; Menges, W.; Merritt, F.S.; Mes, H.; Michelini, A.; Mihara, S.; Mikenberg, G.; Miller, D.J.; Moed, S.; Mohr, W.; Mori, T.; Mutter, A.; Nagai, K.; Nakamura, I.; Nanjo, H.; Neal, H.A.; Nisius, R.; O'Neale, S.W.; Oh, A.; Okpara, A.; Oreglia, M.J.; Orito, S.; Pahl, C.; Pasztor, G.; Pater, J.R.; Patrick, G.N.; Pilcher, J.E.; Pinfold, J.; Plane, David E.; Poli, B.; Polok, J.; Pooth, O.; Przybycien, M.; Quadt, A.; Rabbertz, K.; Rembser, C.; Renkel, P.; Roney, J.M.; Rosati, S.; Rozen, Y.; Runge, K.; Sachs, K.; Saeki, T.; Sarkisyan, E.K.G.; Schaile, A.D.; Schaile, O.; Scharff-Hansen, P.; Schieck, J.; Schoerner-Sadenius, Thomas; Schroder, Matthias; Schumacher, M.; Schwick, C.; Scott, W.G.; Seuster, R.; Shears, T.G.; Shen, B.C.; Sherwood, P.; Siroli, G.; Skuja, A.; Smith, A.M.; Sobie, R.; Soldner-Rembold, S.; Spano, F.; Stahl, A.; Stephens, K.; Strom, David M.; Strohmer, R.; Tarem, S.; Tasevsky, M.; Taylor, R.J.; Teuscher, R.; Thomson, M.A.; Torrence, E.; Toya, D.; Tran, P.; Trigger, I.; Trocsanyi, Z.; Tsur, E.; Turner-Watson, M.F.; Ueda, I.; Ujvari, B.; Vollmer, C.F.; Vannerem, P.; Vertesi, R.; Verzocchi, M.; Voss, H.; Vossebeld, J.; Waller, D.; Ward, C.P.; Ward, D.R.; Watkins, P.M.; Watson, A.T.; Watson, N.K.; Wells, P.S.; Wengler, T.; Wermes, N.; Wetterling, G.W.; Wilson, D.; Wilson, J.A.; Wolf, G.; Wyatt, T.R.; Yamashita, S.; Zer-Zion, D.; Zivkovic, Lidija

    2004-01-01

    Triple gauge boson couplings are measured from W-pair and single photon events recorded by the OPAL detector at LEP at center-of-mass energies between 183 - 209 GeV with a total integrated luminosity of 680 inverse picobarns. Only CP-conserving couplings are considered and SU(2)xU(1) relations between the WWZ and the WWgamma couolings are used, resulting in four independent couplings. Each coupling is determined in a separate fit, assuming the other couplings to take their Standard Model values. Fits are also done allowing some of the couplings to vary simultaneously. The results are compared with the Standard Model predictions.

  20. Predictive medicine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boenink, Marianne; ten Have, Henk

    2015-01-01

    In the last part of the twentieth century, predictive medicine has gained currency as an important ideal in biomedical research and health care. Research in the genetic and molecular basis of disease suggested that the insights gained might be used to develop tests that predict the future health

  1. Effect of Group Cognitive Behavioral Couples Therapy on Couple Burnout and Divorce Tendency in Couples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Mohammadi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Background & aim: Couple burnout is one of the phenomena which involve many couples, it is among the main causes of emotional divorce, and without proper management and treatment, and it can lay the ground for formal divorce among couples. Cognitive behavioral couple therapy is one of the existing approaches in the couple therapy field, the efficiency of which has been established for resolving many marital problems. The present study was designed by the aim of investigating the effect of group cognitive behavioral couple therapy on couple burnout and divorce tendency in couples.   Methods: The present research was of applied research type. The research method was semi-empirical with a pretest-posttest with control group design. The research population included all the couples with marital conflict and problems who, after a recall announcement of the researcher, visited the counseling and psychological services center located in Gorgan city in 2014. By using the available sampling method, 20 couples were selected among the volunteer and qualified couples for the research, and they were assigned into experiment and control groups (10 couples per group by random assignment. In the present research, the Pines burnout questionnaire (1996 and divorce tendency scale of Rouswelt, Johnson, and Mouro (1986 were used for gathering the data. After taking the pretest, the group cognitive behavioral couple therapy based on the couple therapy model of Baucom  and colleagues (2008 was held in 10 2-hour weekly sessions for the experiment group couples, while the control group couples received no intervention. The data were analyzed through descriptive statistics method and multivariate covariance analysis (MANCOVA in SPSS v.20. Results: The multivariate covariance analysis results for couple burnout (F= 28.80 and divorce tendency (F= 51.25 suggested that there was a significant difference between the couples of experiment and control groups (P< 0

  2. Spin-Orbit Coupled Bose-Einstein Condensates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-03

    21. "Many-body physics of spin-orbit-coupled quantum gases ," Invited talk at the March Meeting 2014 in Denver, Colorado (March, 2014) 22... properties of the fundamentally new class of coherent states of quantum matter that had been predicted by the PI and subsequently experimentally...Report Title This ARO research proposal entitled "SPIN-ORBIT COUPLED BOSE-EINSTEIN CONDENSATES" (SOBECs) explored properties of the fundamentally new

  3. Nonlinear charge reduction effect in strongly coupled plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarmah, D; Tessarotto, M; Salimullah, M

    2006-01-01

    The charge reduction effect, produced by the nonlinear Debye screening of high-Z charges occurring in strongly coupled plasmas, is investigated. An analytic asymptotic expression is obtained for the charge reduction factor (f c ) which determines the Debye-Hueckel potential generated by a charged test particle. Its relevant parametric dependencies are analysed and shown to predict a strong charge reduction effect in strongly coupled plasmas

  4. The Economic Foundations of Cohabiting Couples' Union Transitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishizuka, Patrick

    2018-04-01

    In recent decades, cohabitation has become an increasingly important relationship context for U.S. adults and their children, a union status characterized by high levels of instability. To understand why some cohabiting couples marry but others separate, researchers have drawn on theories emphasizing the benefits of specialization, the persistence of the male breadwinner norm, low income as a source of stress and conflict, and rising economic standards associated with marriage (the marriage bar). Because of conflicting evidence and data constraints, however, important theoretical questions remain. This study uses survival analysis with prospective monthly data from nationally representative panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation from 1996-2013 to test alternative theories of how money and work affect whether cohabiting couples marry or separate. Analyses indicate that the economic foundations of cohabiting couples' union transitions do not lie in economic specialization or only men's ability to be good providers. Instead, results for marriage support marriage bar theory: adjusting for couples' absolute earnings, increases in wealth and couples' earnings relative to a standard associated with marriage strongly predict marriage. For dissolution, couples with higher and more equal earnings are significantly less likely to separate. Findings demonstrate that within-couple earnings equality promotes stability, and between-couple inequalities in economic resources are critical in producing inequalities in couples' relationship outcomes.

  5. Tropical North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere interactions synchronize forest carbon losses from hurricanes and Amazon fires

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Y; Randerson, JT; Morton, DC

    2015-01-01

    ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. We describe a climate mode synchronizing forest carbon losses from North and South America by analyzing time series of tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), landfall hurricanes and tropical storms, and Amazon fires during 1995-2013. Years with anomalously high tropical North Atlantic SSTs during March-June were often followed by a more active hurricane season and a larger number of satellite-detected fires in the south...

  6. Tropical North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere interactions synchronize forest carbon losses from hurricanes and Amazon fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yang; Randerson, James T.; Morton, Douglas C.

    2015-08-01

    We describe a climate mode synchronizing forest carbon losses from North and South America by analyzing time series of tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), landfall hurricanes and tropical storms, and Amazon fires during 1995-2013. Years with anomalously high tropical North Atlantic SSTs during March-June were often followed by a more active hurricane season and a larger number of satellite-detected fires in the southern Amazon during June-November. The relationship between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and southern Amazon fires (r = 0.61, p forests.

  7. Ocean-atmosphere forcing of South American tropical paleoclimate, LGM to present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Dwyer, G. S.; Rigsby, C. A.; Silva, C. G.; Burns, S. J.

    2012-12-01

    Because of many recent terrestrial paleoclimatic and marine paleoceanographic records, late Quaternary South American tropical paleoclimate is as well understood as that anywhere in the world. While lessons learned from the recent instrumental record of climate are informative, this record is too short to capture much of the lower frequency variability encountered in the paleoclimate records and much of the observed paleoclimate is without modern analogue. This paleoclimate is known to be regionally variable with significant differences both north and south of the equator and between the western high Andes and eastern lowlands of the Amazon and Nordeste Brazil. Various extrinsic forcing mechanisms affected climate throughout the period, including global concentrations of GHGs, Northern Hemisphere ice sheet forcing, seasonal insolation forcing of the South American summer monsoon (SASM), millennial-scale Atlantic forcing, and Pacific forcing of the large-scale Walker circulation. The magnitude of the climate response to these forcings varied temporally, largely because of the varying amplitude of the forcing itself. For example, during the last glacial, large-amplitude north Atlantic forcing during Heinrich 1 and the LGM itself, led to wet (dry) conditions south (north) of the equator. During the Holocene, Atlantic forcing was lower amplitude, thus seasonal insolation forcing generally predominated with a weaker-than-normal SASM during the early Holocene resulting in dry conditions in the south-western tropics and wet conditions in the eastern lowlands and Nordeste; in the late Holocene seasonal insolation reached a maximum in the southern tropics and climate conditions reversed.

  8. Scales of North Atlantic wind stress curl determined from the comprehensive ocean-atmosphere data set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, Laura L.; O'Brien, James J.

    1989-01-01

    Nineteen years of wind data over the North Atlantic are used to calculate a field of wind stress curl. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is performed on this field, resulting in spatial patterns of wind stress curl and associated time series. A Monte Carlo technique is used to establish the statistical significance of each spatial pattern, and the associated time series are spectrally analyzed. The first four statistically significant EOF modes represent more than 50 percent of the curl variance, and the spatial patterns of curl associated with these modes exhibit the major elements of North Atlantic climatology. Most of the time series spectral variance is contained in annual and semiannual frequencies. The features observed include the individual annual variation of the subtropical high and the subpolar low, the annual oscillation of intensity between pressure centers, the influence of localized strong SST gradients and associated cyclogenesis regions, and the constant nature of the trades.

  9. A Reusable and Autonomous Ocean-Atmosphere Sensor Integration System (OASIS), Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The need to acquire observations on oceanic and atmospheric physical and biogeochemical processes continues to increase. These data are presently being used as...

  10. Ocean-atmosphere pollutant circulation processes: The Heligoland Bight ecosystem (PRISMA). 2. interim report (1991)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-04-01

    The PRISMA BMFT project is an important stage on the way to a comprehensive knowledge of the impacts of pollutants on the North Sea/Heligoland Bight ecosystem. The overall project is dedicated to the development, verification and application of a complex shelf-sea model which provides qualitative and quantitative data about the causal interactions between the basic atmospheric conditions, the hydrodynamics and thermodynamics of the water, the chemical reactons in the air, in the water and the sediments, and the activity of organisms. The model comprises a compact set of formulae, process formulations, initial and marginal conditions and empirical parameters which serves to describe the origin, transport, reactions and final deposition of pollutants in the North Sea, helps to analyze and elucidate the present condition of the ecosystem and its spatial and temporal variability, and provides forecasts in accordance with the changing natural and anthropogenic environmental conditions. (orig.) [de

  11. UNIFICATION AND APPLICATIONS OF MODERN OCEANIC/ATMOSPHERIC DATA ASSIMILATION ALGORITHMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIAO Fang-li; ZHANG Shao-qing; YUAN Ye-li

    2004-01-01

    The key mathematics and applications of various modern atmospheric/oceanic data assimilation methods including Optimal Interpolation(OI),4-dimensional variational approach(4D-Var)and filters were systematically reviewed and classified.Based on the data assimilation philosophy,I.e.,using model dynamics to extract the observational information,the common character of the problem,such as the probabilistic nature of the evolution of the atmospheric/oceanic system,noisy and irregularly spaced observations,and the advantages and disadvantages of these data assimilation algorithms,were discussed.In the filtering framework,all modern data assimilation algorithms were unified: OI/3D-Var is a stationary filter,4D-Var is a linear(Kalman)filter and an ensemble of Kalman filters is able to construct a nonlinear filter.The nonlinear filter such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter(ENKF),Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter(EAKF)and Ensemble Transformation Kalman Filter(ETKF)can,to some extent,account for the non-Gaussian information of the prior distribution from the model.The flow-dependent covariance estimated by an ensemble filter may be introduced to OI and 4D-Var to improve these traditional algorithms.In practice,the performance of algorithms may depend on the specific numerical model and the choice of algorithm may depend on the specific problem.However,the unification of algorithms allows us to establish a unified test system to evaluate these algorithms,which provides more insights into data assimilation philosophies and helps improve data assimilation techniques.

  12. Rapid global ocean-atmosphere response to Southern Ocean freshening during the last glacial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turney, Chris S M; Jones, Richard T; Phipps, Steven J; Thomas, Zoë; Hogg, Alan; Kershaw, A Peter; Fogwill, Christopher J; Palmer, Jonathan; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Adolphi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund; Hughen, Konrad A; Staff, Richard A; Grosvenor, Mark; Golledge, Nicholas R; Rasmussen, Sune Olander; Hutchinson, David K; Haberle, Simon; Lorrey, Andrew; Boswijk, Gretel; Cooper, Alan

    2017-09-12

    Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperatures during the last glacial period (115,000 to 11,650 years ago) are thought to have been driven by imbalances in the rates of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic Deep Water (the 'bipolar seesaw'). Here we exploit a bidecadally resolved 14 C data set obtained from New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) to undertake high-precision alignment of key climate data sets spanning iceberg-rafted debris event Heinrich 3 and Greenland Interstadial (GI) 5.1 in the North Atlantic (~30,400 to 28,400 years ago). We observe no divergence between the kauri and Atlantic marine sediment 14 C data sets, implying limited changes in deep water formation. However, a Southern Ocean (Atlantic-sector) iceberg rafted debris event appears to have occurred synchronously with GI-5.1 warming and decreased precipitation over the western equatorial Pacific and Atlantic. An ensemble of