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Sample records for potentials expert bias

  1. Estimating Production Potentials: Expert Bias in Applied Decision Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matthews, L.J.; Burggraf, L.K.; Reece, W.J.

    1998-01-01

    A study was conducted to evaluate how workers predict manufacturing production potentials given positively and negatively framed information. Findings indicate the existence of a bias toward positive information and suggest that this bias may be reduced with experience but is never the less maintained. Experts err in the same way non experts do in differentially processing negative and positive information. Additionally, both experts and non experts tend to overestimate production potentials in a positive direction. The authors propose that these biases should be addressed with further research including cross domain analyses and consideration in training, workplace design, and human performance modeling

  2. The Most Quoted Danish Economic Expert and the Welfare State - bias in practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Poul Thøis

    It is well-known that economic experts (as well as other experts) are biased. However, it is not normally demonstrated systematically. By identifying and analyzing the viewpoints of the most quoted Danish expert on five characteristic debates bias is demonstrated. The character of the bias...

  3. Lay Evaluation of Financial Experts: The Action Advice Effect and Confirmation Bias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Zaleskiewicz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this experimental project was to investigate lay peoples’ perceptions of epistemic authority (EA in the field of finance. EA is defined as the extent to which a source of information is treated as evidence for judgments independently of its objective expertise and based on subjective beliefs. Previous research suggested that EA evaluations are biased and that lay people tend to ascribe higher EA to experts who advise action (in the case of medical experts or confirm clients’ expectations (in the case of politicians. However, there has been no research into biases in lay evaluations of financial experts and this project is aimed to fill this gap. Experiment 1 showed that lay people tended to ascribe greater authority to financial consultants who gave more active advice to clients considering taking out a mortgage. Experiment 2 confirmed the action advice effect found in Experiment 1. However, the outcomes of Experiments 2 and – particularly – 3 suggested that this bias might also be due to clients’ desire to confirm their own opinions. Experiment 2 showed that the action advice effect was moderated by clients’ own opinions on taking loans. Lay people ascribed the greatest EA to the advisor in the scenario in which he advised taking action and where this coincided with the client’s positive opinion on the advisability of taking out a loan. In Experiment 3 only participants with a positive opinion on the financial product ascribed greater authority to experts who recommended it; participants whose opinion was negative tended to rate consultants who advised rejecting the product more highly. To conclude, these three experiments revealed that lay people ascribe higher EA to financial consultants who advise action rather than maintenance of the status quo, but this effect is limited by confirmation bias: when the client’s a priori opinion is salient, greater authority is ascribed to experts whose advice confirms it. In this

  4. Lay Evaluation of Financial Experts: The Action Advice Effect and Confirmation Bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz; Gasiorowska, Agata; Stasiuk, Katarzyna; Maksymiuk, Renata; Bar-Tal, Yoram

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this experimental project was to investigate lay peoples' perceptions of epistemic authority (EA) in the field of finance. EA is defined as the extent to which a source of information is treated as evidence for judgments independently of its objective expertise and based on subjective beliefs. Previous research suggested that EA evaluations are biased and that lay people tend to ascribe higher EA to experts who advise action (in the case of medical experts) or confirm clients' expectations (in the case of politicians). However, there has been no research into biases in lay evaluations of financial experts and this project is aimed to fill this gap. Experiment 1 showed that lay people tended to ascribe greater authority to financial consultants who gave more active advice to clients considering taking out a mortgage. Experiment 2 confirmed the action advice effect found in Experiment 1. However, the outcomes of Experiments 2 and - particularly - 3 suggested that this bias might also be due to clients' desire to confirm their own opinions. Experiment 2 showed that the action advice effect was moderated by clients' own opinions on taking loans. Lay people ascribed the greatest EA to the advisor in the scenario in which he advised taking action and where this coincided with the client's positive opinion on the advisability of taking out a loan. In Experiment 3 only participants with a positive opinion on the financial product ascribed greater authority to experts who recommended it; participants whose opinion was negative tended to rate consultants who advised rejecting the product more highly. To conclude, these three experiments revealed that lay people ascribe higher EA to financial consultants who advise action rather than maintenance of the status quo , but this effect is limited by confirmation bias: when the client's a priori opinion is salient, greater authority is ascribed to experts whose advice confirms it. In this sense, results presented in the

  5. Expert system characteristics and potential applications in safeguards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, L.D.

    1986-01-01

    The general growth of expert, knowledge-based (KB) or rule based systems will significantly increase in the next three to five years. Improvements in computer hardware (speed, reduced size, power) and software (rule based, data based, user interfaces) in recent years are providing the foundations for the growth of expert systems. A byproduct of this growth will undoubtedly be the application of expert systems to various safeguards problems. Characteristics of these expert systems will involve 1) multiple rules governing an outcome, 2) confidence factors on individual variables and rule sets, 3) priority, cost, and risk based rule sets, and 4) the reasoning behind the advice or decision given by the expert system. This paper presents characteristics, structures, and examples of simple rule based systems. Potential application areas for these expert systems may include training, operations, management, designs, evaluations, and specific hardware operation

  6. Confirmation bias in web-based search: a randomized online study on the effects of expert information and social tags on information search and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweiger, Stefan; Oeberst, Aileen; Cress, Ulrike

    2014-03-26

    attenuated-and even eliminated-when popular tags implicitly point to blog posts that challenge the widespread view. Explicit expert information (in a blog entry) was less successful in reducing biased information search and evaluation. Since tag clouds have the potential to counter biased information processing, we recommend their insertion.

  7. Postactivation potentiation biases maximal isometric strength assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Leonardo Coelho Rabello; Oliveira, Felipe Bruno Dias; Oliveira, Thiago Pires; Assumpção, Claudio de Oliveira; Greco, Camila Coelho; Cardozo, Adalgiso Croscato; Denadai, Benedito Sérgio

    2014-01-01

    Postactivation potentiation (PAP) is known to enhance force production. Maximal isometric strength assessment protocols usually consist of two or more maximal voluntary isometric contractions (MVCs). The objective of this study was to determine if PAP would influence isometric strength assessment. Healthy male volunteers (n = 23) performed two five-second MVCs separated by a 180-seconds interval. Changes in isometric peak torque (IPT), time to achieve it (tPTI), contractile impulse (CI), root mean square of the electromyographic signal during PTI (RMS), and rate of torque development (RTD), in different intervals, were measured. Significant increases in IPT (240.6 ± 55.7 N·m versus 248.9 ± 55.1 N·m), RTD (746 ± 152 N·m·s(-1) versus 727 ± 158 N·m·s(-1)), and RMS (59.1 ± 12.2% RMSMAX  versus 54.8 ± 9.4% RMSMAX) were found on the second MVC. tPTI decreased significantly on the second MVC (2373 ± 1200 ms versus 2784 ± 1226 ms). We conclude that a first MVC leads to PAP that elicits significant enhancements in strength-related variables of a second MVC performed 180 seconds later. If disconsidered, this phenomenon might bias maximal isometric strength assessment, overestimating some of these variables.

  8. Decoupling Action Potential Bias from Cortical Local Field Potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen V. David

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Neurophysiologists have recently become interested in studying neuronal population activity through local field potential (LFP recordings during experiments that also record the activity of single neurons. This experimental approach differs from early LFP studies because it uses high impendence electrodes that can also isolate single neuron activity. A possible complication for such studies is that the synaptic potentials and action potentials of the small subset of isolated neurons may contribute disproportionately to the LFP signal, biasing activity in the larger nearby neuronal population to appear synchronous and cotuned with these neurons. To address this problem, we used linear filtering techniques to remove features correlated with spike events from LFP recordings. This filtering procedure can be applied for well-isolated single units or multiunit activity. We illustrate the effects of this correction in simulation and on spike data recorded from primary auditory cortex. We find that local spiking activity can explain a significant portion of LFP power at most recording sites and demonstrate that removing the spike-correlated component can affect measurements of auditory tuning of the LFP.

  9. Assessing atmospheric bias correction for dynamical consistency using potential vorticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rocheta, Eytan; Sharma, Ashish; Evans, Jason P

    2014-01-01

    Correcting biases in atmospheric variables prior to impact studies or dynamical downscaling can lead to new biases as dynamical consistency between the ‘corrected’ fields is not maintained. Use of these bias corrected fields for subsequent impact studies and dynamical downscaling provides input conditions that do not appropriately represent intervariable relationships in atmospheric fields. Here we investigate the consequences of the lack of dynamical consistency in bias correction using a measure of model consistency—the potential vorticity (PV). This paper presents an assessment of the biases present in PV using two alternative correction techniques—an approach where bias correction is performed individually on each atmospheric variable, thereby ignoring the physical relationships that exists between the multiple variables that are corrected, and a second approach where bias correction is performed directly on the PV field, thereby keeping the system dynamically coherent throughout the correction process. In this paper we show that bias correcting variables independently results in increased errors above the tropopause in the mean and standard deviation of the PV field, which are improved when using the alternative proposed. Furthermore, patterns of spatial variability are improved over nearly all vertical levels when applying the alternative approach. Results point to a need for a dynamically consistent atmospheric bias correction technique which results in fields that can be used as dynamically consistent lateral boundaries in follow-up downscaling applications. (letter)

  10. Structural Estimation of Expert Strategic Bias: The Case of Movie Reviewers

    OpenAIRE

    Camara, Fanny; Dupuis, Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    We develop the first structural estimation of reputational cheap-talk games using data on movie reviews released in the US between 2004 and 2013. We identify and estimate movies' priors, as well as movie reviewers' abilities and strategic biases. We find that reviewers adopt reporting strategies that are consistent with the predictions of the literature on reputational cheap-talk. The average conservatism bias for low prior movies lies between 8 and 11%, depending on the specifications of the...

  11. Stabilization of electron beam spot size by self bias potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwan, T.J.T.; Moir, D.C.; Snell, C.M.; Kang, M.

    1998-01-01

    In high resolution flash x-ray imaging technology the electric field developed between the electron beam and the converter target is large enough to draw ions from the target surface. The ions provide fractional neutralization and cause the electron beam to focus radially inward, and the focal point subsequently moves upstream due to the expansion of the ion column. A self-bias target concept is proposed and verified via computer simulation that the electron charge deposited on the target can generate an electric potential, which can effectively limit the ion motion and thereby stabilize the growth of the spot size. A target chamber using the self bias target concept was designed and tested in the Integrated Test Stand (ITS). The authors have obtained good agreement between computer simulation and experiment

  12. Are Forensic Experts Already Biased before Adversarial Legal Parties Hire Them?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tess M S Neal

    Full Text Available This survey of 206 forensic psychologists tested the "filtering" effects of preexisting expert attitudes in adversarial proceedings. Results confirmed the hypothesis that evaluator attitudes toward capital punishment influence willingness to accept capital case referrals from particular adversarial parties. Stronger death penalty opposition was associated with higher willingness to conduct evaluations for the defense and higher likelihood of rejecting referrals from all sources. Conversely, stronger support was associated with higher willingness to be involved in capital cases generally, regardless of referral source. The findings raise the specter of skewed evaluator involvement in capital evaluations, where evaluators willing to do capital casework may have stronger capital punishment support than evaluators who opt out, and evaluators with strong opposition may work selectively for the defense. The results may provide a partial explanation for the "allegiance effect" in adversarial legal settings such that preexisting attitudes may contribute to partisan participation through a self-selection process.

  13. Are Forensic Experts Already Biased before Adversarial Legal Parties Hire Them?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    This survey of 206 forensic psychologists tested the “filtering” effects of preexisting expert attitudes in adversarial proceedings. Results confirmed the hypothesis that evaluator attitudes toward capital punishment influence willingness to accept capital case referrals from particular adversarial parties. Stronger death penalty opposition was associated with higher willingness to conduct evaluations for the defense and higher likelihood of rejecting referrals from all sources. Conversely, stronger support was associated with higher willingness to be involved in capital cases generally, regardless of referral source. The findings raise the specter of skewed evaluator involvement in capital evaluations, where evaluators willing to do capital casework may have stronger capital punishment support than evaluators who opt out, and evaluators with strong opposition may work selectively for the defense. The results may provide a partial explanation for the “allegiance effect” in adversarial legal settings such that preexisting attitudes may contribute to partisan participation through a self-selection process. PMID:27124416

  14. Persistent bias in expert judgments about free will and moral responsibility: a test of the expertise defense.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Eric; Cokely, Edward T; Feltz, Adam

    2011-12-01

    Many philosophers appeal to intuitions to support some philosophical views. However, there is reason to be concerned about this practice as scientific evidence has documented systematic bias in philosophically relevant intuitions as a function of seemingly irrelevant features (e.g., personality). One popular defense used to insulate philosophers from these concerns holds that philosophical expertise eliminates the influence of these extraneous factors. Here, we test this assumption. We present data suggesting that verifiable philosophical expertise in the free will debate-as measured by a reliable and validated test of expert knowledge-does not eliminate the influence of one important extraneous feature (i.e., the heritable personality trait extraversion) on judgments concerning freedom and moral responsibility. These results suggest that, in at least some important cases, the expertise defense fails. Implications for the practice of philosophy, experimental philosophy, and applied ethics are discussed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Junction Potentials Bias Measurements of Ion Exchange Membrane Permselectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingsbury, Ryan S; Flotron, Sophie; Zhu, Shan; Call, Douglas F; Coronell, Orlando

    2018-04-17

    Ion exchange membranes (IEMs) are versatile materials relevant to a variety of water and waste treatment, energy production, and industrial separation processes. The defining characteristic of IEMs is their ability to selectively allow positive or negative ions to permeate, which is referred to as permselectivity. Measured values of permselectivity that equal unity (corresponding to a perfectly selective membrane) or exceed unity (theoretically impossible) have been reported for cation exchange membranes (CEMs). Such nonphysical results call into question our ability to correctly measure this crucial membrane property. Because weighing errors, temperature, and measurement uncertainty have been shown to not explain these anomalous permselectivity results, we hypothesized that a possible explanation are junction potentials that occur at the tips of reference electrodes. In this work, we tested this hypothesis by comparing permselectivity values obtained from bare Ag/AgCl wire electrodes (which have no junction) to values obtained from single-junction reference electrodes containing two different electrolytes. We show that permselectivity values obtained using reference electrodes with junctions were greater than unity for CEMs. In contrast, electrodes without junctions always produced permselectivities lower than unity. Electrodes with junctions also resulted in artificially low permselectivity values for AEMs compared to electrodes without junctions. Thus, we conclude that junctions in reference electrodes introduce two biases into results in the IEM literature: (i) permselectivity values larger than unity for CEMs and (ii) lower permselectivity values for AEMs compared to those for CEMs. These biases can be avoided by using electrodes without a junction.

  16. Bias-corrected estimation in potentially mildly explosive autoregressive models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haufmann, Hendrik; Kruse, Robinson

    This paper provides a comprehensive Monte Carlo comparison of different finite-sample bias-correction methods for autoregressive processes. We consider classic situations where the process is either stationary or exhibits a unit root. Importantly, the case of mildly explosive behaviour is studied...... that the indirect inference approach oers a valuable alternative to other existing techniques. Its performance (measured by its bias and root mean squared error) is balanced and highly competitive across many different settings. A clear advantage is its applicability for mildly explosive processes. In an empirical...

  17. Potential Reporting Bias in Neuroimaging Studies of Sex Differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Sean P; Naudet, Florian; Laude, Jennifer; Radua, Joaquim; Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Chu, Isabella; Stefanick, Marcia L; Ioannidis, John P A

    2018-04-17

    Numerous functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies have reported sex differences. To empirically evaluate for evidence of excessive significance bias in this literature, we searched for published fMRI studies of human brain to evaluate sex differences, regardless of the topic investigated, in Medline and Scopus over 10 years. We analyzed the prevalence of conclusions in favor of sex differences and the correlation between study sample sizes and number of significant foci identified. In the absence of bias, larger studies (better powered) should identify a larger number of significant foci. Across 179 papers, median sample size was n = 32 (interquartile range 23-47.5). A median of 5 foci related to sex differences were reported (interquartile range, 2-9.5). Few articles (n = 2) had titles focused on no differences or on similarities (n = 3) between sexes. Overall, 158 papers (88%) reached "positive" conclusions in their abstract and presented some foci related to sex differences. There was no statistically significant relationship between sample size and the number of foci (-0.048% increase for every 10 participants, p = 0.63). The extremely high prevalence of "positive" results and the lack of the expected relationship between sample size and the number of discovered foci reflect probable reporting bias and excess significance bias in this literature.

  18. Examining Event-Related Potential (ERP) correlates of decision bias in recognition memory judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Holger; Windmann, Sabine

    2014-01-01

    Memory judgments can be based on accurate memory information or on decision bias (the tendency to report that an event is part of episodic memory when one is in fact unsure). Event related potentials (ERP) correlates are important research tools for elucidating the dynamics underlying memory judgments but so far have been established only for investigations of accurate old/new discrimination. To identify the ERP correlates of bias, and observe how these interact with ERP correlates of memory, we conducted three experiments that manipulated decision bias within participants via instructions during recognition memory tests while their ERPs were recorded. In Experiment 1, the bias manipulation was performed between blocks of trials (automatized bias) and compared to trial-by-trial shifts of bias in accord with an external cue (flexibly controlled bias). In Experiment 2, the bias manipulation was performed at two different levels of accurate old/new discrimination as the memory strength of old (studied) items was varied. In Experiment 3, the bias manipulation was added to another, bottom-up driven manipulation of bias induced via familiarity. In the first two Experiments, and in the low familiarity condition of Experiment 3, we found evidence of an early frontocentral ERP component at 320 ms poststimulus (the FN320) that was sensitive to the manipulation of bias via instruction, with more negative amplitudes indexing more liberal bias. By contrast, later during the trial (500-700 ms poststimulus), bias effects interacted with old/new effects across all three experiments. Results suggest that the decision criterion is typically activated early during recognition memory trials, and is integrated with retrieved memory signals and task-specific processing demands later during the trial. More generally, the findings demonstrate how ERPs can help to specify the dynamics of recognition memory processes under top-down and bottom-up controlled retrieval conditions.

  19. Examining Event-Related Potential (ERP) Correlates of Decision Bias in Recognition Memory Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Holger; Windmann, Sabine

    2014-01-01

    Memory judgments can be based on accurate memory information or on decision bias (the tendency to report that an event is part of episodic memory when one is in fact unsure). Event related potentials (ERP) correlates are important research tools for elucidating the dynamics underlying memory judgments but so far have been established only for investigations of accurate old/new discrimination. To identify the ERP correlates of bias, and observe how these interact with ERP correlates of memory, we conducted three experiments that manipulated decision bias within participants via instructions during recognition memory tests while their ERPs were recorded. In Experiment 1, the bias manipulation was performed between blocks of trials (automatized bias) and compared to trial-by-trial shifts of bias in accord with an external cue (flexibly controlled bias). In Experiment 2, the bias manipulation was performed at two different levels of accurate old/new discrimination as the memory strength of old (studied) items was varied. In Experiment 3, the bias manipulation was added to another, bottom-up driven manipulation of bias induced via familiarity. In the first two Experiments, and in the low familiarity condition of Experiment 3, we found evidence of an early frontocentral ERP component at 320 ms poststimulus (the FN320) that was sensitive to the manipulation of bias via instruction, with more negative amplitudes indexing more liberal bias. By contrast, later during the trial (500–700 ms poststimulus), bias effects interacted with old/new effects across all three experiments. Results suggest that the decision criterion is typically activated early during recognition memory trials, and is integrated with retrieved memory signals and task-specific processing demands later during the trial. More generally, the findings demonstrate how ERPs can help to specify the dynamics of recognition memory processes under top-down and bottom-up controlled retrieval conditions. PMID

  20. Examining Event-Related Potential (ERP correlates of decision bias in recognition memory judgments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holger Hill

    Full Text Available Memory judgments can be based on accurate memory information or on decision bias (the tendency to report that an event is part of episodic memory when one is in fact unsure. Event related potentials (ERP correlates are important research tools for elucidating the dynamics underlying memory judgments but so far have been established only for investigations of accurate old/new discrimination. To identify the ERP correlates of bias, and observe how these interact with ERP correlates of memory, we conducted three experiments that manipulated decision bias within participants via instructions during recognition memory tests while their ERPs were recorded. In Experiment 1, the bias manipulation was performed between blocks of trials (automatized bias and compared to trial-by-trial shifts of bias in accord with an external cue (flexibly controlled bias. In Experiment 2, the bias manipulation was performed at two different levels of accurate old/new discrimination as the memory strength of old (studied items was varied. In Experiment 3, the bias manipulation was added to another, bottom-up driven manipulation of bias induced via familiarity. In the first two Experiments, and in the low familiarity condition of Experiment 3, we found evidence of an early frontocentral ERP component at 320 ms poststimulus (the FN320 that was sensitive to the manipulation of bias via instruction, with more negative amplitudes indexing more liberal bias. By contrast, later during the trial (500-700 ms poststimulus, bias effects interacted with old/new effects across all three experiments. Results suggest that the decision criterion is typically activated early during recognition memory trials, and is integrated with retrieved memory signals and task-specific processing demands later during the trial. More generally, the findings demonstrate how ERPs can help to specify the dynamics of recognition memory processes under top-down and bottom-up controlled retrieval conditions.

  1. [Potential selection bias in telephone surveys: landline and mobile phones].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Continente, Xavier; Pérez-Giménez, Anna; López, María José; Nebot, Manel

    2014-01-01

    The increasing use of mobile phones in the last decade has decreased landline telephone coverage in Spanish households. This study aimed to analyze sociodemographic characteristics and health indicators by type of telephone service (mobile phone vs. landline or landline and mobile phone). Two telephone surveys were conducted in Spanish samples (February 2010 and February 2011). Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to analyze differences in the main sociodemographic characteristics and health indicators according to the type of telephone service available in Spanish households. We obtained 2027 valid responses (1627 landline telephones and 400 mobile phones). Persons contacted through a mobile phone were more likely to be a foreigner, to belong to the manual social class, to have a lower educational level, and to be a smoker than those contacted through a landline telephone. The profile of the population that has only a mobile phone differs from that with a landline telephone. Therefore, telephone surveys that exclude mobile phones could show a selection bias. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  2. A Classroom Demonstration of Potential Biases in the Subjective Interpretation of Projective Tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiederman, Michael W.

    1999-01-01

    Suggests that instructors teaching psychological assessment can use a demonstration to illustrate potential biases when subjectively interpreting response to projective stimuli. Outlines the classroom procedure, notes styles of learning involved, and presents a summary of student evaluations. (DSK)

  3. University students' psychopathology: correlates and the examiner's potential bias effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helena Espirito Santo

    2015-02-01

    Aims: the main objective was to verify if there is a difference on psychopathological symptoms between two groups questioned by two different examiners, controlling for the potential role of social desirability, and other potential covariates. Additionally, we want to assess the level of psychopathology and its socio-demographic correlates.Methods: 185 Coimbra's university students completed the Brief Symptom Inventory/BSI and the Marlowe-Crowne Social Desirability Scale. In one group the examiner was of the same age and academic status as the students, while in the other group the examiner was older and a teacher. We studied the psychopathological correlates with Pearson, point-biserial correlations, and qui-square analyses, and we controlled the potential role of covariates through Quade non-parametric ANCOVAs. Results: The level of distress was lower in comparison with other investigations. Women had higher level of distress and more symptoms of somatization, anxiety, phobic anxiety, obsessive-compulsion, and depression. The students that live a higher distance from home had more anxiety and obsessive-compulsive symptoms. The group assessed by the younger examiner scored higher in distress and in some BSI factors, and had lower levels on social desirability. Conclusions: Sex and distance from home seem important factors for university students' mental health. However, the examiner does have an influence in the evaluation, probably because of social desirability, suggesting that the examiner's characteristics should be given in investigations involving university students.

  4. Hostile attribution biases for relationally provocative situations and event-related potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godleski, Stephanie A; Ostrov, Jamie M; Houston, Rebecca J; Schlienz, Nicolas J

    2010-04-01

    This exploratory study investigates how hostile attribution biases for relationally provocative situations may be related to neurocognitive processing using the P300 event-related potential. Participants were 112 (45 women) emerging adults enrolled in a large, public university in upstate New York. Participants completed self-report measures on relational aggression and hostile attribution biases and performed an auditory perseveration task to elicit the P300. It was found that hostile attribution biases for relational provocation situations was associated with a larger P300 amplitude above and beyond the role of hostile attribution biases for instrumental situations, relational aggression, and gender. Larger P300 amplitude is interpreted to reflect greater allocation of cognitive resources or enhanced "attending" to salient stimuli. Implications for methodological approaches to studying aggression and hostile attribution biases and for theory are discussed, as well as implications for the fields of developmental psychology and psychopathology. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Potential biases in colorectal cancer screening using faecal occult blood test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riboe, Dea Grip; Dogan, Tilde Steen; Brodersen, John

    2013-01-01

    of this paper was to scrutinize these trials for potential biases and assess their influence on the screening trials. METHODS: The four RCTs were reviewed based on the principles of 'Critical Appraisal of the Medical Literature'. Principal investigators of the four RCTs were contacted to clarify uncertainties...... in their study. Data were collected from The Danish Data Archives. Authors of the Cochrane review were contacted. RESULTS: Six biases were identified, of which five favour screening. Three of the biases identified were specific to CRC screening: type of diagnostic method, place of surgery and diagnostic delay....... CONCLUSION: The 16% RRR in CRC mortality found in the updated Cochrane review's meta-analysis is overestimated....

  6. Results of expert response when forming an exhaustive list of potential risks of constructions projects using energy efficient technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryzhkova Anastasiya Igorevna

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The author deals with the most widely used methods of risk events identification. The expert response method is most applicable for construction projects using energy efficient technologies. The article presents the results of an opinion poll of the professional expert community using expert response method, which is aimed to identify the most likely potential “pure” risk of construction projects with energy-efficient technologies in use. 74 experts representing different levels of the construction process were polled: customers and directors of construction companies, project managers, risk managers, advisors. The answers were collected during private talks and also using a special website Survey Monkey. Experts from different countries took part: Russia, Great Britain, Austria, Luxemburg, Switzerland and Norway. Also the article presents the expert evaluation of the “effect” of risk implementation on the cost of a project, implementation time, the product quality, the environment and safety on the construction site.

  7. Are Managed Futures Indices Telling Truth? Biases in CTA Databases and Proposals of Potential Enhancements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Zaremba

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Managed futures are an alternative asset class which has recently became considerably popular among investment industry. However, due to its characteristics, access to managed futures historical performance statistics is relatively confined. All available information originates from commercial and academic databases, reporting to which is entirely voluntary. This situation results in series of biases which distort the managed futures performance in the eyes of investors. The paper consists of two parts. First, the author reviews and describes various biases that influence the reliability of the managed futures indices and databases. The second section encompasses author’s proposals of potential enhancements, which aim to reduce the impact of the biases in order to derive a benchmark that could better reflect characteristics of managed futures investment from the point of view of a potential investor.

  8. Atomic-Scale Simulation of Electrochemical Processes at Electrode/Water Interfaces under Referenced Bias Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouzid, Assil; Pasquarello, Alfredo

    2018-04-19

    Based on constant Fermi-level molecular dynamics and a proper alignment scheme, we perform simulations of the Pt(111)/water interface under variable bias potential referenced to the standard hydrogen electrode (SHE). Our scheme yields a potential of zero charge μ pzc of ∼0.22 eV relative to the SHE and a double layer capacitance C dl of ≃19 μF cm -2 , in excellent agreement with experimental measurements. In addition, we study the structural reorganization of the electrical double layer for bias potentials ranging from -0.92 eV to +0.44 eV and find that O down configurations, which are dominant at potentials above the pzc, reorient to favor H down configurations as the measured potential becomes negative. Our modeling scheme allows one to not only access atomic-scale processes at metal/water interfaces, but also to quantitatively estimate macroscopic electrochemical quantities.

  9. The Different Inhibition of Return (IOR Effects of Emergency Managerial Experts and Novices: An Event-Related Potentials Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rong Cao

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Inhibition of return (IOR is an important effect of attention. However, the IOR of emergency managerial experts is unknown. By employing emergency and natural scene pictures in expert-novice paradigm, the present study explored the neural activity underlying the IOR effects for emergency managerial experts and novices. In behavioral results, there were no differences of IOR effects between novices and emergency managerial experts, while the event-related potentials (ERPs results were different between novices and experts. In Experiment 1 (novice group, ERPs results showed no any IOR was robust at both stimulus-onset asynchrony (SOA of 200 ms and 400 ms. In Experiment 2 (expert group, ERPs results showed an enhanced N2 at SOA of 200 ms and attenuated P3 at cued location in the right parietal lobe and adjacent brain regions than uncued location at SOA of 200 ms. The findings of the two experiments showed that, relative to the novices, IOR for the emergency managerial experts was robust, and dominated in the right parietal lobe and adjacent brain regions, suggesting more flexible attentional processing and higher visual search efficiency of the emergency managerial experts. The findings indicate that the P3, possible N2, over the right parietal lobe and adjacent brain regions are the biological indicators for IOR elicited by post-cued emergency pictures for emergency managerial experts.

  10. EXPERT ESTIMATE OF PREVENTIVE AND PEDAGOGICAL POTENTIAL OF FAMILIES WITH MINORS ON INDIVIDUAL SOCIAL MAINTENANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yakov Viktorovich Kostyukovisky

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of research surveys and polls conducted among 121 professional social workers at the St. Petersburg State Budgetary Institution The City Center for Social Programs CONTACT. The main objective of the research was to make the specified group of experts estimate educational and preventive potential of families with minors who are on individual social maintenance. The data obtained let us claim that family is a significant deviantogenic factor triggering asocial behavior of teenagers. We should admit that parents of underaged children fail to implement activities aimed at forming comprehensively and harmoniously developed personality due to the low level of pedagogical culture, growing indiffe-rence within a family and lack of emotional bonds with their kids as well as common interests and hobbies. As a matter of fact children can’t count on parents giving them a hand. The research has also shown that social workers faced a number of cases when parents put intense physical and psychological pressure on their children. One of the most significant problems experts registered in the course of their work are parent/child conflicts.

  11. Environmental metabarcodes for insects: in silico PCR reveals potential for taxonomic bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Laurence J; Soubrier, Julien; Weyrich, Laura S; Cooper, Alan

    2014-11-01

    Studies of insect assemblages are suited to the simultaneous DNA-based identification of multiple taxa known as metabarcoding. To obtain accurate estimates of diversity, metabarcoding markers ideally possess appropriate taxonomic coverage to avoid PCR-amplification bias, as well as sufficient sequence divergence to resolve species. We used in silico PCR to compare the taxonomic coverage and resolution of newly designed insect metabarcodes (targeting 16S) with that of existing markers [16S and cytochrome oxidase c subunit I (COI)] and then compared their efficiency in vitro. Existing metabarcoding primers amplified in silico 90% coverage. Furthermore, metabarcodes targeting COI appeared to introduce taxonomic PCR-amplification bias, typically amplifying a greater percentage of Lepidoptera and Diptera species, while failing to amplify certain orders in silico. To test whether bias predicted in silico was observed in vitro, we created an artificial DNA blend containing equal amounts of DNA from 14 species, representing 11 insect orders and one arachnid. We PCR-amplified the blend using five primer sets, targeting either COI or 16S, with high-throughput amplicon sequencing yielding more than 6 million reads. In vitro results typically corresponded to in silico PCR predictions, with newly designed 16S primers detecting 11 insect taxa present, thus providing equivalent or better taxonomic coverage than COI metabarcodes. Our results demonstrate that in silico PCR is a useful tool for predicting taxonomic bias in mixed template PCR and that researchers should be wary of potential bias when selecting metabarcoding markers. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. The Potential of Computer-Based Expert Systems for Special Educators in Rural Settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, James D.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    Knowledge-based expert computer systems are addressing issues relevant to all special educators, but are particularly relevant in rural settings where human experts are less available because of distance and cost. An expert system is an application of artificial intelligence (AI) that typically engages the user in a dialogue resembling the…

  13. Identifying factors for optimal development of health-related websites: a delphi study among experts and potential future users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Francine; van Osch, Liesbeth; de Vries, Hein

    2012-02-14

    The Internet has become a popular medium for offering tailored and targeted health promotion programs to the general public. However, suboptimal levels of program use in the target population limit the public health impact of these programs. Optimizing program development is considered as one of the main processes to increase usage rates. To distinguish factors potentially related to optimal development of health-related websites by involving both experts and potential users. By considering and incorporating the opinions of experts and potential users in the development process, involvement in the program is expected to increase, consequently resulting in increased appreciation, lower levels of attrition, and higher levels of sustained use. We conducted a systematic three-round Delphi study through the Internet. Both national and international experts (from the fields of health promotion, health psychology, e-communication, and technical Web design) and potential users were invited via email to participate. During this study an extensive list of factors potentially related to optimal development of health-related websites was identified, by focusing on factors related to layout, general and risk information provision, questionnaire use, additional services, and ease of use. Furthermore, we assessed the extent to which experts and potential users agreed on the importance of these factors. Differences as well as similarities among experts and potentials users were deduced. In total, 20 of 62 contacted experts participated in the first round (32% response rate); 60 of 200 contacted experts (30% response rate) and 210 potential users (95% response rate) completed the second-round questionnaire, and 32 of 60 contacted experts completed the third round (53% response rate). Results revealed important factors consented upon by experts and potential users (eg, ease of use, clear structure, and detailed health information provision), as well as differences regarding

  14. Exponential dependence of potential barrier height on biased voltages of inorganic/organic static induction transistor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Yong; Yang Jianhong; Cai Xueyuan; Wang Zaixing

    2010-01-01

    The exponential dependence of the potential barrier height φ c on the biased voltages of the inorganic/organic static induction transistor (SIT/OSIT) through a normalized approach in the low-current regime is presented. It shows a more accurate description than the linear expression of the potential barrier height. Through the verification of the numerical calculated and experimental results, the exponential dependence of φ c on the applied biases can be used to derive the I-V characteristics. For both SIT and OSIT, the calculated results, using the presented relationship, are agreeable with the experimental results. Compared to the previous linear relationship, the exponential description of φ c can contribute effectively to reduce the error between the theoretical and experimental results of the I-V characteristics. (semiconductor devices)

  15. Expert Opinion Analysis on Renewable Hydrogen Storage Systems Potential in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davide Astiaso Garcia

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Among the several typologies of storage technologies, mainly on different physical principles (mechanical, electrical and chemical, hydrogen produced by power to gas (P2G from renewable energy sources complies with chemical storage principle and is based on the conversion of electrical energy into chemical energy by means of the electrolysis of water which does not produce any toxic or climate-relevant emission. This paper aims to pinpoint the potential uses of renewable hydrogen storage systems in Europe, analysing current and potential locations, regulatory framework, governments’ outlooks, economic issues, and available renewable energy amounts. The expert opinion survey, already used in many research articles on different topics including energy, has been selected as an effective method to produce realistic results. The obtained results highlight strategies and actions to optimize the storage of hydrogen produced by renewables to face varying electricity demand and generation-driven fluctuations reducing the negative effects of the increasing share of renewables in the energy mix of European Countries.

  16. Expert consensus on an in vitro approach to assess pulmonary fibrogenic potential of aerosolized nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clippinger, Amy J; Ahluwalia, Arti; Allen, David; Bonner, James C; Casey, Warren; Castranova, Vincent; David, Raymond M; Halappanavar, Sabina; Hotchkiss, Jon A; Jarabek, Annie M; Maier, Monika; Polk, William; Rothen-Rutishauser, Barbara; Sayes, Christie M; Sayre, Phil; Sharma, Monita; Stone, Vicki

    2016-07-01

    The increasing use of multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) in consumer products and their potential to induce adverse lung effects following inhalation has lead to much interest in better understanding the hazard associated with these nanomaterials (NMs). While the current regulatory requirement for substances of concern, such as MWCNTs, in many jurisdictions is a 90-day rodent inhalation test, the monetary, ethical, and scientific concerns associated with this test led an international expert group to convene in Washington, DC, USA, to discuss alternative approaches to evaluate the inhalation toxicity of MWCNTs. Pulmonary fibrosis was identified as a key adverse outcome linked to MWCNT exposure, and recommendations were made on the design of an in vitro assay that is predictive of the fibrotic potential of MWCNTs. While fibrosis takes weeks or months to develop in vivo, an in vitro test system may more rapidly predict fibrogenic potential by monitoring pro-fibrotic mediators (e.g., cytokines and growth factors). Therefore, the workshop discussions focused on the necessary specifications related to the development and evaluation of such an in vitro system. Recommendations were made for designing a system using lung-relevant cells co-cultured at the air-liquid interface to assess the pro-fibrogenic potential of aerosolized MWCNTs, while considering human-relevant dosimetry and NM life cycle transformations. The workshop discussions provided the fundamental design components of an air-liquid interface in vitro test system that will be subsequently expanded to the development of an alternative testing strategy to predict pulmonary toxicity and to generate data that will enable effective risk assessment of NMs.

  17. Delegating Decisions to Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hao; Suen, Wing

    2004-01-01

    We present a model of delegation with self-interested and privately informed experts. A team of experts with extreme but opposite biases is acceptable to a wide range of decision makers with diverse preferences, but the value of expertise from such a team is low. A decision maker wants to appoint experts who are less partisan than he is in order…

  18. Potential for parasite-induced biases in aquatic invertebrate population studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Justin D.L.; Mushet, David M.; Stockwell, Craig A.

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies highlight the need to include estimates of detection/capture probability in population studies. This need is particularly important in studies where detection and/or capture probability is influenced by parasite-induced behavioral alterations. We assessed potential biases associated with sampling a population of the amphipod Gammarus lacustris in the presence of Polymorphus spp. acanthocephalan parasites shown to increase positive phototaxis in their amphipod hosts. We trapped G. lacustris at two water depths (benthic and surface) and compared number of captures and number of parasitized individuals at each depth. While we captured the greatest number of G. lacustris individuals in benthic traps, parasitized individuals were captured most often in surface traps. These results reflect the phototaxic movement of infected individuals from benthic locations to sunlit surface waters. We then explored the influence of varying infection rates on a simulated population held at a constant level of abundance. Simulations resulted in increasingly biased abundance estimates as infection rates increased. Our results highlight the need to consider parasite-induced biases when quantifying detection and/or capture probability in studies of aquatic invertebrate populations.

  19. Response of the plasma to the size of an anode electrode biased near the plasma potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnat, E. V.; Laity, G. R.; Baalrud, S. D.

    2014-01-01

    As the size of a positively biased electrode increases, the nature of the interface formed between the electrode and the host plasma undergoes a transition from an electron-rich structure (electron sheath) to an intermediate structure containing both ion and electron rich regions (double layer) and ultimately forms an electron-depleted structure (ion sheath). In this study, measurements are performed to further test how the size of an electron-collecting electrode impacts the plasma discharge the electrode is immersed in. This is accomplished using a segmented disk electrode in which individual segments are individually biased to change the effective surface area of the anode. Measurements of bulk plasma parameters such as the collected current density, plasma potential, electron density, electron temperature and optical emission are made as both the size and the bias placed on the electrode are varied. Abrupt transitions in the plasma parameters resulting from changing the electrode surface area are identified in both argon and helium discharges and are compared to the interface transitions predicted by global current balance [S. D. Baalrud, N. Hershkowitz, and B. Longmier, Phys. Plasmas 14, 042109 (2007)]. While the size-dependent transitions in argon agree, the size-dependent transitions observed in helium systematically occur at lower electrode sizes than those nominally derived from prediction. The discrepancy in helium is anticipated to be caused by the finite size of the interface that increases the effective area offered to the plasma for electron loss to the electrode

  20. Voluntary vs. compulsory student evaluation of clerkships: effect on validity and potential bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoun Bahous, Sola; Salameh, Pascale; Salloum, Angelique; Salameh, Wael; Park, Yoon Soo; Tekian, Ara

    2018-01-05

    Students evaluations of their learning experiences can provide a useful source of information about clerkship effectiveness in undergraduate medical education. However, low response rates in clerkship evaluation surveys remain an important limitation. This study examined the impact of increasing response rates using a compulsory approach on validity evidence. Data included 192 responses obtained voluntarily from 49 third-year students in 2014-2015, and 171 responses obtained compulsorily from 49 students in the first six months of the consecutive year at one medical school in Lebanon. Evidence supporting internal structure and response process validity was compared between the two administration modalities. The authors also tested for potential bias introduced by the use of the compulsory approach by examining students' responses to a sham item that was added to the last survey administration. Response rates increased from 56% in the voluntary group to 100% in the compulsory group (P two consecutive years. Testing for non-response bias in the voluntary group showed that females were more frequent responders in two clerkships. Testing for authority-induced bias revealed that students might complete the evaluation randomly without attention to content. While increasing response rates is often a policy requirement aimed to improve the credibility of ratings, using authority to enforce responses may not increase reliability and can raise concerns over the meaningfulness of the evaluation. Administrators are urged to consider not only response rates, but also representativeness and quality of responses in administering evaluation surveys.

  1. Negativity bias for sad faces in depression: An event-related potential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Qin; Wei, Juanjuan; Shu, Xiaorui; Feng, Zhengzhi

    2016-12-01

    Negativity bias in depression has been previously confirmed. However, mainly during a valence category task, it remains unclear how happy or unhappy individuals perceive emotional materials. Moreover, cerebral alteration measurements during a valence judgment task is lacking. The present study aimed to explore a valence judgment of a valence rating task, combined with event-related potential (ERP) recording. Healthy controls, individuals with sub-clinical depression, and patients diagnosed with major depressive disorder (MDD) were recruited. Twenty-four subjects in each group completed a valence rating task, during which the ERP amplitudes were recorded. The MDD group had lower valence scores, faster responses, and greater N1 amplitudes for sad faces, whereas individuals with sub-clinical depression had faster responses and greater P1 amplitudes for all faces but lower valence scores and greater P2 amplitudes for happy faces. The findings suggest the tendency toward a negativity bias in valence ratings in patients with depression supported by behavioral and cerebral evidence, which is a latent trait of depression, possibly associated with the vulnerability of depression. The current study offers the first experimental evidence of cognitive and cerebral biomarkers of negativity bias in valence ratings in depression, which confirms Beck's cognitive theory and gives important direction for clinical therapy. Copyright © 2016 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Sex differences in event-related potentials and attentional biases to emotional facial stimuli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfabigan, Daniela M; Lamplmayr-Kragl, Elisabeth; Pintzinger, Nina M; Sailer, Uta; Tran, Ulrich S

    2014-01-01

    Attentional processes play an important role in the processing of emotional information. Previous research reported attentional biases during stimulus processing in anxiety and depression. However, sex differences in the processing of emotional stimuli and higher prevalence rates of anxiety disorders among women, compared to men, suggest that attentional biases may also differ between the two sexes. The present study used a modified version of the dot probe task with happy, angry, and neutral facial stimuli to investigate the time course of attentional biases in healthy volunteers. Moreover, associations of attentional biases with alexithymia were examined on the behavioral and physiological level. Event-related potentials were measured while 21 participants (11 women) performed the task, utilizing also for the first time a difference wave approach in the analysis to highlight emotion-specific aspects. Women showed overall enhanced probe P1 amplitudes compared to men, in particular after rewarding facial stimuli. Using the difference wave approach, probe P1 amplitudes appeared specifically enhanced with regard to congruently presented happy facial stimuli among women, compared to men. Both methods yielded enhanced probe P1 amplitudes after presentation of the emotional stimulus in the left compared to the right visual hemifield. Probe P1 amplitudes correlated negatively with self-reported alexithymia, most of these correlations were only observable in women. Our results suggest that women orient their attention to a greater extent to facial stimuli than men and corroborate that alexithymia is a correlate of reduced emotional reactivity on a neuronal level. We recommend using a difference wave approach when addressing attentional processes of orientation and disengagement also in future studies.

  3. Sex differences in event-related potentials and attentional biases to emotional facial stimuli

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela M. Pfabigan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Attentional processes play an important role in the processing of emotional information. Previous research reported attentional biases during stimulus processing in anxiety and depression. However, sex differences in the processing of emotional stimuli and higher prevalence rates of anxiety disorders among women, compared to men, suggest that attentional biases may also differ between the two sexes. The present study used a modified version of the dot probe task with happy, angry, and neutral facial stimuli to investigate the time course of attentional biases in healthy volunteers. Moreover, associations of attentional biases with alexithymia were examined on the behavioral and physiological level. Event-related potentials were measured while 21 participants (11 women performed the task, utilizing also for the first time a difference wave approach in the analysis to highlight emotion-specific aspects. Women showed overall enhanced probe P1 amplitudes compared to men, in particular after rewarding facial stimuli. Under the difference wave approach, probe P1 amplitudes appeared specifically enhanced with regard to congruently presented happy facial stimuli among women, compared to men. Both methods yielded enhanced probe P1 amplitudes after presentation of the emotional stimulus in the left compared to the right visual hemifield. Probe P1 amplitudes correlated negatively with self-reported alexithymia, most of these correlations were only observable in women. Our results suggest that women orient their attention to a greater extent to facial stimuli than men and corroborate that alexithymia is a correlate of reduced emotional reactivity on a neuronal level. We recommend using a difference wave approach when addressing attentional processes of orientation and disengagement also in future studies.

  4. A simple technique investigating baseline heterogeneity helped to eliminate potential bias in meta-analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, Amy; Fairhurst, Caroline; Torgerson, David J

    2018-03-01

    To perform a worked example of an approach that can be used to identify and remove potentially biased trials from meta-analyses via the analysis of baseline variables. True randomisation produces treatment groups that differ only by chance; therefore, a meta-analysis of a baseline measurement should produce no overall difference and zero heterogeneity. A meta-analysis from the British Medical Journal, known to contain significant heterogeneity and imbalance in baseline age, was chosen. Meta-analyses of baseline variables were performed and trials systematically removed, starting with those with the largest t-statistic, until the I 2 measure of heterogeneity became 0%, then the outcome meta-analysis repeated with only the remaining trials as a sensitivity check. We argue that heterogeneity in a meta-analysis of baseline variables should not exist, and therefore removing trials which contribute to heterogeneity from a meta-analysis will produce a more valid result. In our example none of the overall outcomes changed when studies contributing to heterogeneity were removed. We recommend routine use of this technique, using age and a second baseline variable predictive of outcome for the particular study chosen, to help eliminate potential bias in meta-analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Opinions and potential solutions regarding dissemination bias from funding agencies of biomedical research in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardo-Hernandez, Hector; Urrútia, Gerard; Meerpohl, Joerg J; Marušić, Ana; Wager, Elizabeth; Bonfill, Xavier

    2018-02-01

    Several studies have found that about half of research results from clinical trials are never published. Until now, there has been little information on the views that funding agencies of biomedical research in Europe have regarding this issue and its possible solutions. An electronic survey was conducted among funding agencies from 34 European countries. Participants were asked about their opinions, policies, and potential solutions regarding dissemination bias. On the basis of the results of this survey and the input of the OPEN Consortium and of representatives of stakeholder groups in the knowledge generation process, we formulated recommendations for funding agencies to reduce dissemination bias. We received responses from 64 funding agencies of biomedical medicine from most European countries, out of 245 that were contacted (26%). Of these, 56 funded research at the national and/or international level and were therefore eligible to participate. Policies encouraging publication increased over time: 33 (58.9%) of agencies enforced them in 2005 compared to 38 (67.6%) in 2012. However, only 13 (23.2%) had knowledge of the publications related to research funded in 2005, 23 (41.1%) were able to provide only an estimate, and 20 (35.7%) did not know at all. Regarding recommendations to control dissemination bias, we propose that funding agencies request the dissemination of research results irrespective of the direction of findings. We also call for measures that allow evaluating funded projects past the contractual period and until dissemination of results. Funding agencies should create publicly accessible databases with information on funded projects and dissemination efforts. Despite having policies to encourage publication of results, most funding agencies fail to implement such measures or to ensure compliance. We propose recommendations that could be incorporated in the blueprint of calls for proposals and contracts agreed upon by funding agencies and grant

  6. Links among available integral benchmarks and differential date evaluations, computational biases and uncertainties, and nuclear criticality safety biases on potential MOX production throughput

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goluoglu, S.; Hopper, C.M.

    2004-01-01

    Through the use of Oak Ridge National Laboratory's recently developed and applied sensitivity and uncertainty computational analysis techniques, this paper presents the relevance and importance of available and needed integral benchmarks and differential data evaluations impacting potential MOX production throughput determinations relative to low-moderated MOX fuel blending operations. The relevance and importance in the availability of or need for critical experiment benchmarks and data evaluations are presented in terms of computational biases as influenced by computational and experimental sensitivities and uncertainties relative to selected MOX production powder blending processes. Recent developments for estimating the safe margins of subcriticality for assuring nuclear criticality safety for process approval are presented. In addition, the impact of the safe margins (due to computational biases and uncertainties) on potential MOX production throughput will also be presented. (author)

  7. Incidental encoding of emotional pictures: affective bias studied through event related brain potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapia, Manuel; Carretié, Luis; Sierra, Benjamín; Mercado, Francisco

    2008-06-01

    Emotional stimuli are better remembered than neutral stimuli. Most of the studies taking into account this emotional bias refer to explicit memory, use behavioral measures of the recall and predict better recall of negative stimuli. The few studies taking into account implicit memory and the valence emotional dimension are inconclusive on the effect of the stimulus' emotional valence. In the present study, 120 pictures (30 positive, 30 negative, 30 relaxing and 30 neutral) were shown to, and assessed by, 28 participants (study phase). Subsequently, event related brain potentials (ERPs) were recorded during the presentation of 120 new (shown for the first time) and 120 old (already shown in the study phase) pictures (test phase). No explicit instructions or clues related to recovery were given to participants, and a distractor task was employed, in order to maintain implicit the memory assessment. As expected from other studies' data, our results showed that old stimuli elicited an enhanced late positive component 450 ms after stimulus onset (repetition effect). Moreover, this effect was modulated by the stimuli's emotional valence, since the most positively valenced stimuli were associated with a decreased repetition effect with respect to the most negatively valenced stimuli. This effect was located at ventromedial prefrontal cortex. These results suggest the existence of a valence-mediated bias in implicit memory.

  8. Applying GRADE-CERQual to qualitative evidence synthesis findings-paper 7: understanding the potential impacts of dissemination bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, Andrew; Lewin, Simon; Glenton, Claire; Munthe-Kaas, Heather; Toews, Ingrid; Noyes, Jane; Rashidian, Arash; Berg, Rigmor C; Nyakang'o, Brenda; Meerpohl, Joerg J

    2018-01-25

    The GRADE-CERQual (Confidence in Evidence from Reviews of Qualitative research) approach has been developed by the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) Working Group. The approach has been developed to support the use of findings from qualitative evidence syntheses in decision-making, including guideline development and policy formulation. CERQual includes four components for assessing how much confidence to place in findings from reviews of qualitative research (also referred to as qualitative evidence syntheses): (1) methodological limitations, (2) coherence, (3) adequacy of data and (4) relevance. This paper is part of a series providing guidance on how to apply CERQual and focuses on a probable fifth component, dissemination bias. Given its exploratory nature, we are not yet able to provide guidance on applying this potential component of the CERQual approach. Instead, we focus on how dissemination bias might be conceptualised in the context of qualitative research and the potential impact dissemination bias might have on an overall assessment of confidence in a review finding. We also set out a proposed research agenda in this area. We developed this paper by gathering feedback from relevant research communities, searching MEDLINE and Web of Science to identify and characterise the existing literature discussing or assessing dissemination bias in qualitative research and its wider implications, developing consensus through project group meetings, and conducting an online survey of the extent, awareness and perceptions of dissemination bias in qualitative research. We have defined dissemination bias in qualitative research as a systematic distortion of the phenomenon of interest due to selective dissemination of studies or individual study findings. Dissemination bias is important for qualitative evidence syntheses as the selective dissemination of qualitative studies and/or study findings may distort our understanding of

  9. The potential for expert system support in solving the pressurized water reactor fuel shuffling problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rothleder, B.M.; Poetschat, G.R.; Faught, W.S.; Eich, V.J.

    1988-01-01

    The fuel shuffling problem is posed by the need to reposition partially burned assemblies to achieve minimum X-Y pin power peaks reload cycles of pressurized water reactors. This problem is a classic artificial intelligence (AI) problem and is highly suitable for AI expert system solution assistance, in contrast to the conventional solution, which ultimately depends solely on trial and error. Such a fuel shuffling assistant would significantly reduce engineering and computer execution time for conventional loading patterns and, much more importantly, even more significantly for low-leakage loading patterns. A successful hardware/software demonstrator has been introduced, paving the way for development of a broadly expert system program. Such a program, upon incorporating the recently developed technique perverse depletion, would provide a directed path for solving the low-leakage problem

  10. Potential sources of analytical bias and error in selected trace element data-quality analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Angela P.; Garbarino, John R.; Olsen, Lisa D.; Rosen, Michael R.; Mebane, Christopher A.; Struzeski, Tedmund M.

    2016-09-28

    Potential sources of analytical bias and error associated with laboratory analyses for selected trace elements where concentrations were greater in filtered samples than in paired unfiltered samples were evaluated by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water Quality Specialists in collaboration with the USGS National Water Quality Laboratory (NWQL) and the Branch of Quality Systems (BQS).Causes for trace-element concentrations in filtered samples to exceed those in associated unfiltered samples have been attributed to variability in analytical measurements, analytical bias, sample contamination either in the field or laboratory, and (or) sample-matrix chemistry. These issues have not only been attributed to data generated by the USGS NWQL but have been observed in data generated by other laboratories. This study continues the evaluation of potential analytical bias and error resulting from matrix chemistry and instrument variability by evaluating the performance of seven selected trace elements in paired filtered and unfiltered surface-water and groundwater samples collected from 23 sampling sites of varying chemistries from six States, matrix spike recoveries, and standard reference materials.Filtered and unfiltered samples have been routinely analyzed on separate inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry instruments. Unfiltered samples are treated with hydrochloric acid (HCl) during an in-bottle digestion procedure; filtered samples are not routinely treated with HCl as part of the laboratory analytical procedure. To evaluate the influence of HCl on different sample matrices, an aliquot of the filtered samples was treated with HCl. The addition of HCl did little to differentiate the analytical results between filtered samples treated with HCl from those samples left untreated; however, there was a small, but noticeable, decrease in the number of instances where a particular trace-element concentration was greater in a filtered sample than in the associated

  11. Attention bias in earthquake-exposed survivors: an event-related potential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yan; Kong, Fanchang; Han, Li; Najam Ul Hasan, Abbasi; Chen, Hong

    2014-12-01

    The Chinese Wenchuan earthquake, which happened on the 28th of May in 2008, may leave deep invisible scars in individuals. China has a large number of children and adolescents, who tend to be most vulnerable because they are in an early stage of human development and possible post-traumatic psychological distress may have a life-long consequence. Trauma survivors without post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have received little attention in previous studies, especially in event-related potential (ERP) studies. We compared the attention bias to threat stimuli between the earthquake-exposed group and the control group in a masked version of the dot probe task. The target probe presented at the same space location consistent with earthquake-related words was the congruent trial, while in the space location of neutral words was the incongruent trial. Thirteen earthquake-exposed middle school students without PTSD and 13 matched controls were included in this investigation. The earthquake-exposed group showed significantly faster RTs to congruent trials than to incongruent trials. The earthquake-exposed group produced significantly shorter C1 and P1 latencies and larger C1, P1 and P2 amplitudes than the control group. In particular, enhanced P1 amplitude to threat stimuli was observed in the earthquake-exposed group. These findings are in agreement with the prediction that earthquake-exposed survivors have an attention bias to threat stimuli. The traumatic event had a much greater effect on earthquake-exposed survivors even if they showed no PTSD symptoms than individuals in the controls. These results will provide neurobiological evidences for effective intervention and prevention to post-traumatic mental problems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Effect of ergonomics training on agreement between expert and nonexpert ratings of the potential for musculoskeletal harm in manufacturing tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fethke, Nathan B; Merlino, Linda; Gerr, Fred

    2013-12-01

    To evaluate the effect of ergonomics training on non-ergonomists' ability to recognize and characterize the potential for musculoskeletal harm in manufacturing tasks. Ergonomics training was delivered to members of a participatory ergonomics team in a manufacturing facility. Before and after training, participatory ergonomics team members and the research team rated the potential for musculoskeletal harm for each of 30 tasks. Measures of agreement included Pearson, concordance, and intraclass correlation coefficients. Measures of agreement generally improved after training. The greatest agreement was observed for ratings of the potential for musculoskeletal harm to the low back. The greatest improvement in agreement was observed for ratings of the potential for musculoskeletal harm to the neck/shoulder. The training seemed to improve non-experts' ability to identify the potential for musculoskeletal harm.

  13. Children's Attentional Biases and "5-HTTLPR" Genotype: Potential Mechanisms Linking Mother and Child Depression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibb, Brandon E.; Benas, Jessica S.; Grassia, Marie; McGeary, John

    2009-01-01

    In this study, we examined the roles of specific cognitive (attentional bias) and genetic ("5-HTTLPR") risk factors in the intergenerational transmission of depression. Focusing first on the link between maternal history of major depressive disorder (MDD) and children's attentional biases, we found that children of mothers with a history…

  14. Expert model for the evaluation of potential competition performance in cross-country skiers exemplified by two evaluated athletes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Pustovrh

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the present research was to obtain information on potential competition performance in cross-country skiers by the method of expert modelling. On the basis of expert knowledge, a model of potential performance (MFMPS was constructed in the form of a decision tree, encompassing motor, functional, morphological, psychological, and sociological subspaces. For all base variables, normalisers were determined, and for all nodes in the MFMPS model, decision rules were determined according to the method applying dependent determination of weights. Potential competition performance of the sample of 14 subjects measured – cross-country skiers in the age of 17 and 18 years was assessed at all levels in the MFMPS model by means of the SMMS program. At the highest levels of the MFMPS model, the correlation between the scores of the variables and the criterion variable SLO_FIS was established by means of the Pearson correlation coefficient. The validity of the MFMPS model  by means of which 81% of the variance of the criterion variable was explained – was established. The model laid out in this way allows us to search for current weak and good points in the preparation status of an athlete, on which the direction and correction of the transformation process is based. In this way, objective longitudinal monitoring of the development of the athlete's potential is also ensured.

  15. First principles molecular dynamics of metal/water interfaces under bias potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedroza, Luana; Brandimarte, Pedro; Rocha, Alexandre; Fernandez-Serra, Marivi

    2014-03-01

    Understanding the interaction of the water-metal system at an atomic level is extremely important in electrocatalysts for fuel cells, photocatalysis among other systems. The question of the interface energetics involves a detailed study of the nature of the interactions between water-water and water-substrate. A first principles description of all components of the system is the most appropriate methodology in order to advance understanding of electrochemically processes. In this work we describe, using first principles molecular dynamics simulations, the dynamics of a combined surface(Au and Pd)/water system both in the presence and absence of an external bias potential applied to the electrodes, as one would come across in electrochemistry. This is accomplished using a combination of density functional theory (DFT) and non-equilibrium Green's functions methods (NEGF), thus accounting for the fact that one is dealing with an out-of-equilibrium open system, with and without van der Waals interactions. DOE Early Career Award No. DE-SC0003871.

  16. A potential gender bias in assessing quality of life - a standard gamble experiment among university students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obaidi, Leath Al; Mahlich, Jörg

    2015-01-01

    There are several methodologies that can be used for evaluating patients' perception of their quality of life. Most commonly, utilities are directly elicited by means of either the time-trade-off or the standard-gamble method. In both methods, risk attitudes determine the quality of life values. Quality of life values among 31 Austrian undergraduate students were elicited by means of the standard gamble approach. The impact of several variables such as gender, side job, length of study, and living arrangements on the quality of life were identified using different types of regression techniques (ordinary least squares, generalized linear model, Betafit). Significant evidence was found that females are associated with a higher quality of life in all specifications of our estimations. The observed gender differences in quality of life can be attributed to a higher degree of risk aversion of women. A higher risk aversion leads to a higher valuation of given health states and a potential gender bias in health economic evaluations. This result could have implications for health policy planners when it comes to budget allocation decisions.

  17. Potential bias factors that affect the course evaluation of students in preclinical courses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su Jin Chae

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose We aim to identify what potential bias factors affected students’ overall course evaluation, and to observe what factors should be considered in the curriculum evaluation system of medical schools. Methods This study analyzed students’ ratings of preclinical instructions at the Ajou University School of Medicine. The ratings of instructions involved 41 first-year and 45 second-year medical students. Results There was a statistically significant difference between years of study and ratings’ scoring. Learning difficulty, learning amount, student assessment, and teacher preparation from second-year students were significantly higher than first-year students (p<0.05. The analysis results revealed that student assessment was the predictor of ratings from first-year students, while teacher preparation was the predictor of ratings from second-year students. Conclusion We found significant interactions between year of study and the students’ rating results. We were able to confirm that satisfaction of instructions factors perceived by medical students were different for the characteristics of courses. Our results may be an important resource for evaluating preclinical curriculums.

  18. Effects of three types of potentially biasing information on symptom severity judgments for major depressive episode.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumma, Gregory H

    2002-10-01

    Two experiments examined the effects of potentially biasing information on judgments of symptom severity pertaining to the diagnosis of major depressive episode (MDE). In both experiments, clinicians viewed videotapes of two actor-simulated patients responding to questions from a standardized diagnostic interview. In Study 1, an expectancy effect was found for both patients such that prior information about a clear-cut history of depression resulted in lower rated severity of current symptoms. In addition, a halo effect was observed for one patient in Study 1 and both patients in Study 2: Clear-cut depressive nonverbal behavior (DNVB) resulted in greater rated severity for symptoms that should not have been affected (e.g., appetite/weight change, suicidal ideation). Clear-cut versus near-threshold information for the two essential criteria for MDE did not affect subsequent judgments in either study. Implications for diagnostic interviewing are discussed. Copyright 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Clin Psychol 58: 1327-1345, 2002.

  19. Expert Nordic perspectives on the potential of novel inhalers to overcome unmet needs in the management of obstructive lung disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Løkke, Anders; Ahlbeck, Lars; Bjermer, Leif

    2015-01-01

    fails to achieve adequate lung deposition and therapeutic effect. In this report, the potential of novel inhaler devices to overcome unmet needs in the management of obstructive lung disease is considered by a panel of Nordic experts. The panel concludes that innovative inhalers can contribute to good......The effective self-management of obstructive lung disease is dependent upon the patient achieving good inhaler technique. However, many current inhalers are complicated to use, which may lead to handling difficulties. These difficulties can cause clinically relevant errors, whereby pharmacotherapy...... disease management and better use of healthcare resources....

  20. Expert Evaluation of Potential Points of Economic Growth in the Regions of Russia and the Conditions of their Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Tihonov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the main purpose of this article is to identify « growth points» of economic growth in the regions, determine their type, and assess the conditions for their development. Methods: the main feature of this study is to obtain an expert assessment of the qualitative aspects of regional development. The main source of empirical data was an online survey conducted by the authors in 2016. Results: the study identified potential «growth points» in five regions of the Russian Federation and determined their nature according to the idea of modernizing the socio-economic environment. The selected points allow to develop the potential of the region horizontally. However, there are certain problems that hinder this development and they have been identified. Conclusions and Relevance: at the moment, the identified «growth points» can not be classified as information or intellectual, but in all regions there is the possibility of activating such industries. The «growth points» allocated by experts are still potential, because their technical, technological and innovative components have medium level of development. «Growth points» in the Republic of Sakha and the Nizhny Novgorod region have a greater modernization activity. Such expertise can be used by local authorities to adjust development vectors and strategies. It can also be an element of monitoring the socioeconomic development of regions. 

  1. Investigating d-cycloserine as a potential pharmacological enhancer of an emotional bias learning procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woud, Marcella L; Blackwell, Simon E; Steudte-Schmiedgen, Susann; Browning, Michael; Holmes, Emily A; Harmer, Catherine J; Margraf, Jürgen; Reinecke, Andrea

    2018-05-01

    The partial N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor agonist d-cycloserine may enhance psychological therapies. However, its exact mechanism of action is still being investigated. Cognitive bias modification techniques allow isolation of cognitive processes and thus investigation of how they may be affected by d-cycloserine. We used a cognitive bias modification paradigm targeting appraisals of a stressful event, Cognitive Bias Modification-Appraisal, to investigate whether d-cycloserine enhanced the modification of appraisal, and whether it caused greater reduction in indices of psychopathology. Participants received either 250 mg of d-cycloserine ( n=19) or placebo ( n=19). As a stressor task, participants recalled a negative life event, followed by positive Cognitive Bias Modification-Appraisal training. Before and after Cognitive Bias Modification-Appraisal, appraisals and indices of psychopathology related to the stressor were assessed. Cognitive Bias Modification-Appraisal successfully modified appraisals, but d-cycloserine did not affect appraisals post-training. There were no post-training group differences in frequency of intrusions. Interestingly, d-cycloserine led to a greater reduction in distress and impact on state mood from recalling the event, and lower distress post-training was associated with fewer intrusions. Therefore, d-cycloserine may affect emotional reactivity to recalling a negative event when combined with induction of a positive appraisal style, but via a mechanism other than enhanced learning of the appraisal style.

  2. Attentional Bias in Patients with Decompensated Tinnitus: Prima Facie Evidence from Event-Related Potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhicheng; Gu, Ruolei; Zeng, Xiangli; Zhong, Weifang; Qi, Min; Cen, Jintian

    2016-01-01

    Tinnitus refers to the auditory perception of sound in the absence of external sound or electric stimuli. The influence of tinnitus on cognitive processing is at the cutting edge of ongoing tinnitus research. In this study, we adopted an objective indicator of attentional processing, i.e. the mismatch negativity (MMN), to assess the attentional bias in patients with decompensated tinnitus. Three kinds of pure tones, D1 (8,000 Hz), S (8,500 Hz) and D2 (9,000 Hz), were used to induce event-related potentials (ERPs) in the normal ear. Employing the oddball paradigm, the task was divided into two blocks in which D1 and D2 were set as deviation stimuli, respectively. Only D2 induced a significant MMN in the tinnitus group, while neither D1 nor D2 was able to induce MMN in the control group. In addition, the ERPs in the left hemisphere, which were recorded within the time window of 90-150 ms (ERP 90-150 ms), were significantly higher than those in the right hemisphere in the tinnitus group, while no significant difference was observed in the control group. Lastly, the amplitude of ERP 90-150 ms in the tinnitus group was significantly higher than that in the control group. These findings suggest that patients with decompensated tinnitus showed automatic processing of acoustic stimuli, thereby indicating that these patients allocated more cognitive resources to acoustic stimulus processing. We suggest that the difficulty in disengaging or facilitated attention of patients might underlie this phenomenon. The limitations of the current study are discussed. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  3. The personal interview: assessing the potential for personality similarity to bias the selection of orthopaedic residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintero, Andres J; Segal, Lee S; King, Tonya S; Black, Kevin P

    2009-10-01

    The selection of medical students for training in orthopaedic surgery consists of an objective screening of cognitive skills to secure interviews for the brightest candidates, followed by subjective measures of candidates to confirm whether applicants are worthy of further consideration. The personal interview and its potential biased impact on the orthopaedic workforce were evaluated. During 2004-2006 at the Penn State College of Medicine, the authors performed a prospective cohort study in which 30 consenting interviewers and 135 interviewees completed the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator before the interviews. Completed surveys were evaluated after submitting the resident selection list to the National Residency Matching Program, and candidate rankings based solely on the personal interview were analyzed. Clinicians ranked candidates more favorably when they shared certain personality preferences (P = .044) and when they shared the preference groupings of the quadrant extrovert-sensing and either the function pair sensing-thinking (P = .007) or the temperament sensing-judging (P = .003), or the function pair sensing-feeling and the temperament sensing-judging (P = .029). No associations existed between personality preferences and interviewee rankings performed by basic scientists and resident interviewers. The results support the hypothesis that, within the department studied, there was a significant association between similarities in personality type and the rankings that individual faculty interviewers assigned to applicants at the completion of each interview session. The authors believe that it is important for the faculty member to recognize that this tendency exists. Finally, promoting diversity within the admission committee may foster a diverse resident body and orthopaedic workforce.

  4. Expert consensus on an in vitro approach to assess pulmonary fibrogenic potential of aerosolized nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Report from an international workshop with the goal of reviewing the state-of-the-science and determine the technical needs to develop an in vitro system that will reduce and eventually replace the use of animals for evaluating the potential inhalation toxicity of nanomaterials (...

  5. CONSTRUCTION INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF HUMAN POTENTIAL HIGH SCHOOL ON THE BASIS OF EXPERT DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitriy N. Krymzin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In article offers the hierarchical system of creation the integrated indicator of personnel capacity in the higher educationinstitution, based on value judgment ofteachers. The integrated assessment of level of personnel potential is constructedon the basis of formation of a large gradation number, characterizing such system indicators, as personnel structure, reproduction of scientific and scientific and pedagogical shots and productivity ofresearch and educational and methodical activity of personnel structure.

  6. The impact of human-technology cooperation and distributed cognition in forensic science: biasing effects of AFIS contextual information on human experts*

    OpenAIRE

    Dror, Itiel E.; Wertheim, Kasey; Fraser-Mackenzie, Peter; Walajtys, Jeff

    2012-01-01

    Experts play a critical role in forensic decision making, even when cognition is offloaded and distributed between human and machine. In this paper, we investigated the impact of using Automated Fingerprint Identification Systems (AFIS) on human decision makers. We provided 3680 AFIS lists (a total of 55,200 comparisons) to 23 latent fingerprint examiners as part of their normal casework. We manipulated the position of the matching print in the AFIS list. The data showed that latent fingerpri...

  7. Potential fitting biases resulting from grouping data into variable width bins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Towers, S.

    2014-01-01

    When reading peer-reviewed scientific literature describing any analysis of empirical data, it is natural and correct to proceed with the underlying assumption that experiments have made good faith efforts to ensure that their analyses yield unbiased results. However, particle physics experiments are expensive and time consuming to carry out, thus if an analysis has inherent bias (even if unintentional), much money and effort can be wasted trying to replicate or understand the results, particularly if the analysis is fundamental to our understanding of the universe. In this note we discuss the significant biases that can result from data binning schemes. As we will show, if data are binned such that they provide the best comparison to a particular (but incorrect) model, the resulting model parameter estimates when fitting to the binned data can be significantly biased, leading us to too often accept the model hypothesis when it is not in fact true. When using binned likelihood or least squares methods there is of course no a priori requirement that data bin sizes need to be constant, but we show that fitting to data grouped into variable width bins is particularly prone to produce biased results if the bin boundaries are chosen to optimize the comparison of the binned data to a wrong model. The degree of bias that can be achieved simply with variable binning can be surprisingly large. Fitting the data with an unbinned likelihood method, when possible to do so, is the best way for researchers to show that their analyses are not biased by binning effects. Failing that, equal bin widths should be employed as a cross-check of the fitting analysis whenever possible

  8. Potential fitting biases resulting from grouping data into variable width bins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Towers, S., E-mail: smtowers@asu.edu

    2014-07-30

    When reading peer-reviewed scientific literature describing any analysis of empirical data, it is natural and correct to proceed with the underlying assumption that experiments have made good faith efforts to ensure that their analyses yield unbiased results. However, particle physics experiments are expensive and time consuming to carry out, thus if an analysis has inherent bias (even if unintentional), much money and effort can be wasted trying to replicate or understand the results, particularly if the analysis is fundamental to our understanding of the universe. In this note we discuss the significant biases that can result from data binning schemes. As we will show, if data are binned such that they provide the best comparison to a particular (but incorrect) model, the resulting model parameter estimates when fitting to the binned data can be significantly biased, leading us to too often accept the model hypothesis when it is not in fact true. When using binned likelihood or least squares methods there is of course no a priori requirement that data bin sizes need to be constant, but we show that fitting to data grouped into variable width bins is particularly prone to produce biased results if the bin boundaries are chosen to optimize the comparison of the binned data to a wrong model. The degree of bias that can be achieved simply with variable binning can be surprisingly large. Fitting the data with an unbinned likelihood method, when possible to do so, is the best way for researchers to show that their analyses are not biased by binning effects. Failing that, equal bin widths should be employed as a cross-check of the fitting analysis whenever possible.

  9. Measuring Program Quality, Part 2: Addressing Potential Cultural Bias in a Rater Reliability Exam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richer, Amanda; Charmaraman, Linda; Ceder, Ineke

    2018-01-01

    Like instruments used in afterschool programs to assess children's social and emotional growth or to evaluate staff members' performance, instruments used to evaluate program quality should be free from bias. Practitioners and researchers alike want to know that assessment instruments, whatever their type or intent, treat all people fairly and do…

  10. Potential of bias correction for downscaling passive microwave and soil moisture data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passive microwave satellites such as SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) or SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) observe brightness temperature (TB) and retrieve soil moisture at a spatial resolution greater than most hydrological processes. Bias correction is proposed as a simple method to disag...

  11. Potential for Bias When Estimating Critical Windows for Air Pollution in Children's Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ander; Chiu, Yueh-Hsiu Mathilda; Hsu, Hsiao-Hsien Leon; Wright, Robert O; Wright, Rosalind J; Coull, Brent A

    2017-12-01

    Evidence supports an association between maternal exposure to air pollution during pregnancy and children's health outcomes. Recent interest has focused on identifying critical windows of vulnerability. An analysis based on a distributed lag model (DLM) can yield estimates of a critical window that are different from those from an analysis that regresses the outcome on each of the 3 trimester-average exposures (TAEs). Using a simulation study, we assessed bias in estimates of critical windows obtained using 3 regression approaches: 1) 3 separate models to estimate the association with each of the 3 TAEs; 2) a single model to jointly estimate the association between the outcome and all 3 TAEs; and 3) a DLM. We used weekly fine-particulate-matter exposure data for 238 births in a birth cohort in and around Boston, Massachusetts, and a simulated outcome and time-varying exposure effect. Estimates using separate models for each TAE were biased and identified incorrect windows. This bias arose from seasonal trends in particulate matter that induced correlation between TAEs. Including all TAEs in a single model reduced bias. DLM produced unbiased estimates and added flexibility to identify windows. Analysis of body mass index z score and fat mass in the same cohort highlighted inconsistent estimates from the 3 methods. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Potential for bias in 21st century semiempirical sea level projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jevrejeva, S.; Moore, J. C.; Grinsted, A.

    2012-01-01

    by satellite altimetry. Nonradiative forcing contributors, such as long-term adjustment of Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets since Last Glacial Maximum, abyssal ocean warming, and terrestrial water storage, may bias model calibration which, if corrected for, tend to reduce median sea level projections...

  13. The impact of human-technology cooperation and distributed cognition in forensic science: biasing effects of AFIS contextual information on human experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dror, Itiel E; Wertheim, Kasey; Fraser-Mackenzie, Peter; Walajtys, Jeff

    2012-03-01

    Experts play a critical role in forensic decision making, even when cognition is offloaded and distributed between human and machine. In this paper, we investigated the impact of using Automated Fingerprint Identification Systems (AFIS) on human decision makers. We provided 3680 AFIS lists (a total of 55,200 comparisons) to 23 latent fingerprint examiners as part of their normal casework. We manipulated the position of the matching print in the AFIS list. The data showed that latent fingerprint examiners were affected by the position of the matching print in terms of false exclusions and false inconclusives. Furthermore, the data showed that false identification errors were more likely at the top of the list and that such errors occurred even when the correct match was present further down the list. These effects need to be studied and considered carefully, so as to optimize human decision making when using technologies such as AFIS. © 2011 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  14. Veterinary Expert Opinion on Potential Drivers and Opportunities for Changing Antimicrobial Usage Practices in Livestock in Denmark, Portugal, and Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luís P. Carmo

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Reducing antimicrobial use (AMU in livestock is requested by Public Health authorities. Ideally, this should be achieved without jeopardizing production output or animal health and welfare. Thus, efficient measures must be identified and developed to target drivers of AMU. Veterinarians play a central role in the identification and implementation of such efficient interventions. Sixty-seven veterinarians with expertise in livestock production in Denmark, Portugal, and Switzerland participated in an expert opinion study aimed at investigating experiences and opinions of veterinarians about the driving forces and practices related to AMU in the main livestock sectors (broiler, dairy cattle, fattening/veal calf, and pig industry of the aforementioned countries. Opinions on potential factors influencing the choice of antimicrobials and opportunities to reduce AMU were collected. Antibiograms are seldom used, mainly due to the time lag between testing and obtaining the results. The perceived percentage of treatment failures varied between countries and livestock sectors; however, little changes were reported over time (2005−2015. The animal health problems of each livestock sector most frequently leading to AMU did not vary substantially between countries. Mandatory official interventions (i.e., binding measures applied by national or international authorities were highlighted as having the biggest impact on AMU. There was a variation in the experts’ opinion regarding feasibility and impact of interventions both between countries and livestock sectors. Nevertheless, improved biosecurity and education of veterinarians frequently received high scores. Most veterinarians believed that AMU can be reduced. The median potential reduction estimates varied from 1% in Swiss broilers to 50% in Portuguese broilers and veal/fattening calves in all countries. We hypothesize that the differences in views could be related to disease epidemiology, animal

  15. Camera trap placement and the potential for bias due to trails and other features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolowski, Joseph M; Forrester, Tavis D

    2017-01-01

    Camera trapping has become an increasingly widespread tool for wildlife ecologists, with large numbers of studies relying on photo capture rates or presence/absence information. It is increasingly clear that camera placement can directly impact this kind of data, yet these biases are poorly understood. We used a paired camera design to investigate the effect of small-scale habitat features on species richness estimates, and capture rate and detection probability of several mammal species in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, USA. Cameras were deployed at either log features or on game trails with a paired camera at a nearby random location. Overall capture rates were significantly higher at trail and log cameras compared to their paired random cameras, and some species showed capture rates as much as 9.7 times greater at feature-based cameras. We recorded more species at both log (17) and trail features (15) than at their paired control cameras (13 and 12 species, respectively), yet richness estimates were indistinguishable after 659 and 385 camera nights of survey effort, respectively. We detected significant increases (ranging from 11-33%) in detection probability for five species resulting from the presence of game trails. For six species detection probability was also influenced by the presence of a log feature. This bias was most pronounced for the three rodents investigated, where in all cases detection probability was substantially higher (24.9-38.2%) at log cameras. Our results indicate that small-scale factors, including the presence of game trails and other features, can have significant impacts on species detection when camera traps are employed. Significant biases may result if the presence and quality of these features are not documented and either incorporated into analytical procedures, or controlled for in study design.

  16. Examining Potential Boundary Bias Effects in Kernel Smoothing on Equating: An Introduction for the Adaptive and Epanechnikov Kernels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cid, Jaime A; von Davier, Alina A

    2015-05-01

    Test equating is a method of making the test scores from different test forms of the same assessment comparable. In the equating process, an important step involves continuizing the discrete score distributions. In traditional observed-score equating, this step is achieved using linear interpolation (or an unscaled uniform kernel). In the kernel equating (KE) process, this continuization process involves Gaussian kernel smoothing. It has been suggested that the choice of bandwidth in kernel smoothing controls the trade-off between variance and bias. In the literature on estimating density functions using kernels, it has also been suggested that the weight of the kernel depends on the sample size, and therefore, the resulting continuous distribution exhibits bias at the endpoints, where the samples are usually smaller. The purpose of this article is (a) to explore the potential effects of atypical scores (spikes) at the extreme ends (high and low) on the KE method in distributions with different degrees of asymmetry using the randomly equivalent groups equating design (Study I), and (b) to introduce the Epanechnikov and adaptive kernels as potential alternative approaches to reducing boundary bias in smoothing (Study II). The beta-binomial model is used to simulate observed scores reflecting a range of different skewed shapes.

  17. Lepidosaurian diversity in the Mesozoic-Palaeogene: the potential roles of sampling biases and environmental drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleary, Terri J.; Benson, Roger B. J.; Evans, Susan E.; Barrett, Paul M.

    2018-03-01

    Lepidosauria is a speciose clade with a long evolutionary history, but there have been few attempts to explore its taxon richness through time. Here we estimate patterns of terrestrial lepidosaur genus diversity for the Triassic-Palaeogene (252-23 Ma), and compare observed and sampling-corrected richness curves generated using Shareholder Quorum Subsampling and classical rarefaction. Generalized least-squares regression (GLS) is used to investigate the relationships between richness, sampling and environmental proxies. We found low levels of richness from the Triassic until the Late Cretaceous (except in the Kimmeridgian-Tithonian of Europe). High richness is recovered for the Late Cretaceous of North America, which declined across the K-Pg boundary but remained relatively high throughout the Palaeogene. Richness decreased following the Eocene-Oligocene Grande Coupure in North America and Europe, but remained high in North America and very high in Europe compared to the Late Cretaceous; elsewhere data are lacking. GLS analyses indicate that sampling biases (particularly, the number of fossil collections per interval) are the best explanation for long-term face-value genus richness trends. The lepidosaur fossil record presents many problems when attempting to reconstruct past diversity, with geographical sampling biases being of particular concern, especially in the Southern Hemisphere.

  18. An expert panel approach to assessing potential effects of bull trout reintroduction on federally listed salmonids in the Clackamas River, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce G. Marcot; Chris S. Allen; Steve Morey; Dan Shively; Rollie. White

    2012-01-01

    The bull trout Salvelinus confluentus is an apex predator in native fish communities in the western USA and is listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Restoration of this species has raised concerns over its potential predatory impacts on native fish fauna. We held a five-person expert panel to help determine potential...

  19. The EU(7)-PIM list: a list of potentially inappropriate medications for older people consented by experts from seven European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renom-Guiteras, Anna; Meyer, Gabriele; Thürmann, Petra A

    2015-07-01

    The aim of the study was to develop a European list of potentially inappropriate medications (PIM) for older people, which can be used for the analysis and comparison of prescribing patterns across European countries and for clinical practice. A preliminary PIM list was developed, based on the German PRISCUS list of potentially inappropriate medications and other PIM lists from the USA, Canada and France. Thirty experts on geriatric prescribing from Estonia, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden participated; eight experts performed a structured expansion of the list, suggesting further medications; twenty-seven experts participated in a two-round Delphi survey assessing the appropriateness of drugs and suggesting dose adjustments and therapeutic alternatives. Finally, twelve experts completed a brief final survey to decide upon issues requiring further consensus. Experts reached a consensus that 282 chemical substances or drug classes from 34 therapeutic groups are PIM for older people; some PIM are restricted to a certain dose or duration of use. The PIM list contains suggestions for dose adjustments and therapeutic alternatives. The European Union (EU)(7)-PIM list is a screening tool, developed with participation of experts from seven European countries, that allows identification and comparison of PIM prescribing patterns for older people across European countries. It can also be used as a guide in clinical practice, although it does not substitute the decision-making process of individualised prescribing for older people. Further research is needed to investigate the feasibility and applicability and, finally, the clinical benefits of the newly developed list.

  20. Heuristic and analytic processes in reasoning: an event-related potential study of belief bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Adrian P; Hope, Christopher

    2014-03-01

    Human reasoning involves both heuristic and analytic processes. This study of belief bias in relational reasoning investigated whether the two processes occur serially or in parallel. Participants evaluated the validity of problems in which the conclusions were either logically valid or invalid and either believable or unbelievable. Problems in which the conclusions presented a conflict between the logically valid response and the believable response elicited a more positive P3 than problems in which there was no conflict. This shows that P3 is influenced by the interaction of belief and logic rather than either of these factors on its own. These findings indicate that belief and logic influence reasoning at the same time, supporting models in which belief-based and logical evaluations occur in parallel but not theories in which belief-based heuristic evaluations precede logical analysis.

  1. Potential sources of bias in the use of Escherichia coli to measure waterborne diarrhoea risk in low-income settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercumen, Ayse; Arnold, Benjamin F; Naser, Abu Mohd; Unicomb, Leanne; Colford, John M; Luby, Stephen P

    2017-01-01

    Escherichia coli is the standard water quality indicator for diarrhoea risk. Yet, the association between E. coli and diarrhoea is inconsistent across studies without a systematic assessment of methodological differences behind this variation. Most studies measure water quality cross-sectionally with diarrhoea, risking exposure misclassification and reverse causation. Studies use different recall windows for self-reported diarrhoea; longer periods increase potential outcome misclassification through misrecall. Control of confounding is inconsistent across studies. Additionally, diarrhoea measured in unblinded intervention trials can present courtesy bias. We utilised measurements from a randomised trial of water interventions in Bangladesh to assess how these factors affect the E. coli-diarrhoea association. We compared cross-sectional versus prospective measurements of water quality and diarrhoea, 2-versus 7-day symptom recall periods, estimates with and without controlling for confounding and using measurements from control versus intervention arms of the trial. In the control arm, 2-day diarrhoea prevalence, measured prospectively 1 month after water quality, significantly increased with log 10 E. coli (PR = 1.50, 1.02-2.20). This association weakened when we used 7-day recall (PR = 1.18, 0.88-1.57), cross-sectional measurements of E. coli and diarrhoea (PR = 1.11, 0.79-1.56) or did not control for confounding (PR = 1.20, 0.88-1.62). Including data from intervention arms led to less interpretable associations, potentially due to courtesy bias, effect modification and/or reverse causation. By systematically addressing potential sources of bias, our analysis demonstrates a clear relationship between E. coli in drinking water and diarrhoea, suggesting that the continued use of E. coli as an indicator of waterborne diarrhoea risk is justified. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. [Correlation of codon biases and potential secondary structures with mRNA translation efficiency in unicellular organisms].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vladimirov, N V; Likhoshvaĭ, V A; Matushkin, Iu G

    2007-01-01

    Gene expression is known to correlate with degree of codon bias in many unicellular organisms. However, such correlation is absent in some organisms. Recently we demonstrated that inverted complementary repeats within coding DNA sequence must be considered for proper estimation of translation efficiency, since they may form secondary structures that obstruct ribosome movement. We have developed a program for estimation of potential coding DNA sequence expression in defined unicellular organism using its genome sequence. The program computes elongation efficiency index. Computation is based on estimation of coding DNA sequence elongation efficiency, taking into account three key factors: codon bias, average number of inverted complementary repeats, and free energy of potential stem-loop structures formed by the repeats. The influence of these factors on translation is numerically estimated. An optimal proportion of these factors is computed for each organism individually. Quantitative translational characteristics of 384 unicellular organisms (351 bacteria, 28 archaea, 5 eukaryota) have been computed using their annotated genomes from NCBI GenBank. Five potential evolutionary strategies of translational optimization have been determined among studied organisms. A considerable difference of preferred translational strategies between Bacteria and Archaea has been revealed. Significant correlations between elongation efficiency index and gene expression levels have been shown for two organisms (S. cerevisiae and H. pylori) using available microarray data. The proposed method allows to estimate numerically the coding DNA sequence translation efficiency and to optimize nucleotide composition of heterologous genes in unicellular organisms. http://www.mgs.bionet.nsc.ru/mgs/programs/eei-calculator/.

  3. The Most Quoted Danish Economic Expert and the Welfare State

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Poul Thøis

    It is well-known that economic experts (as well as other experts) are biased. However, it is not normally demonstrated systematically. By identifying and analyzing the viewpoints of the most quoted Danish expert on five characteristic debates bias is demonstrated. The character of the bias...

  4. Expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haldy, P.A.

    1988-01-01

    The definitions of the terms 'artificial intelligence' and 'expert systems', the methodology, areas of employment and limits of expert systems are discussed. The operation of an expert system is described, especially the presentation and organization of knowledge as well as interference and control. Methods and tools for expert system development are presented and their application in nuclear energy are briefly addressed. 7 figs., 2 tabs., 6 refs

  5. Expert Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Lucas, P.J.F.

    2005-01-01

    Expert systems mimic the problem-solving activity of human experts in specialized domains by capturing and representing expert knowledge. Expert systems include a knowledge base, an inference engine that derives conclusions from the knowledge, and a user interface. Knowledge may be stored as if-then rules, orusing other formalisms such as frames and predicate logic. Uncertain knowledge may be represented using certainty factors, Bayesian networks, Dempster-Shafer belief functions, or fuzzy se...

  6. Food for thought? Potential conflicts of interest in academic experts advising government and charities on dietary policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Alex; Lloyd-Williams, Ffion; Bromley, Helen; Capewell, Simon

    2016-08-05

    A conflict of interest (CoI) can occur between public duty and private interest, in which a public official's private-capacity interest could improperly influence the performance of their official duties and responsibilities. The most tangible and commonly considered CoI are financial. However, CoI can also arise due to other types of influence including interpersonal relationships, career progression, or ideology. CoI thus exist in academia, business, government and non-governmental organisations. However, public knowledge of CoI is currently limited due to a lack of information. The mechanisms of managing potential conflicts of interest also remain unclear due to a lack of guidelines. We therefore examined the independence of academic experts and how well potential CoI are identified and addressed in four government and non-governmental organisations in the UK responsible for the development of food policy. Policy analysis. We developed an analytical framework to explore CoI in high-level UK food policy advice, using four case studies. Two government policy-making bodies: Department of Health 'Obesity Review Group' (ORG), 'Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition' (SACN) and two charities: 'Action on Sugar' (AoS), & 'Heart of Mersey' (HoM). Information was obtained from publicly available sources and declarations. We developed a five point ordinal scale based upon the ideology of the Nolan Principles of Public Life. Group members were individually categorised on the ordinal ConScale from "0", (complete independence from the food and drink industry) to "4", (employed by the food and drink industry or a representative organisation). CoI involving various industries have long been evident in policy making, academia and clinical practice. Suggested approaches for managing CoI could be categorised as "deny", "describe", or "diminish". Declared CoI were common in the ORG and SACN. 4 out of 28 ORG members were direct industry employees. In SACN 11 out of 17 members

  7. Beyond Bias and Barriers: Fulfilling the Potential of Women in Academic Science and Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agogino, Alice

    2007-04-01

    Review of the report by the National Academies, with a focus on action strategies in the physical sciences. Women face barriers to hiring and promotion in research universities in many fields of science and engineering; a situation that deprives the United States of an important source of talent as the country faces increasingly stiff global competition in higher education, science and technology, and the marketplace. Eliminating gender bias in universities requires immediate, overarching reform and decisive action by university administrators, professional societies, government agencies, and Congress. Forty years ago, women made up only 3 percent of America's scientific and technical workers, but by 2003 they accounted for nearly one-fifth. In addition, women have earned more than half of the bachelor's degrees awarded in science and engineering since 2000. However, their representation on university and college faculties fails to reflect these gains. Among science and engineering Ph.D.s, four times more men than women hold full-time faculty positions. And minority women with doctorates are less likely than white women or men of any racial or ethnic group to be in tenure positions. The report urges higher education organizations and professional societies to form collaborative, self-monitoring body that would recommend standards for faculty recruitment, retention, and promotion; collect data; and track compliance across institutions. A ``report card'' template is provided in the report. To read the report online, add a comment, or purchase hard copy, go to: http://www.engineeringpathway.com/ep/learningresource/summary/index.jhtml?id=94A4929D-F1B2-432E-8167-63335569CB4E.

  8. Potential Bias in Projecting Future Regional Megadrought Risk: Insights From A Global Data-Model Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T.; Cole, J. E.; Fasullo, J.; Loope, G. R.; Parsons, L. A.; Stevenson, S.

    2015-12-01

    Megadrought is one of the most significant and costly climate extremes, and one that stakeholders (e.g., water and other resource managers) the world over wish to understand better; in particular, they need estimates of the risk of severe droughts as a function of drought frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. In many dry-climate regions of the globe, megadrought is synonymous with multi-decadal drought. However, in other regions, megadrought can be defined as extended drought, mostly not seen in the period of instrumental observations, and that would have large impacts if it were to occur in the future. New and published paleoclimatic observations allow us to understand the spectrum of drought in many regions of the globe; droughts exceeding 50 years have occurred in recent Earth history in southwestern North America, sub-Saharan Africa, the Mediterranean and Australia, whereas shorter megadroughts have occurred in Monsoon Asia, Amazonia and elsewhere. Data-model comparisons for regions with sufficiently long (e.g., 1000-2000 years) records of observed hydroclimatic variability suggest that state-of-the-art models can provide realistic estimates of interannual to decadal drought risk, but underestimate the risk of megadrought. Likely reasons for this shortcoming are the lack of sufficient multi-decadal variability in simulations of the past and future, plus an underappreciated understanding about how temperature variability and land-surface feedbacks interact with hydrological and ecological drought, as well as the roles played by unusually wet hydroclimatic extremes (e.g., ENSO related) in ending droughts of long duration. Paleoclimatic records also provide the opportunity to estimate how much models underestimate megadrought risk as a function of locale, frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration; they also aid in providing stakeholders with bias-corrected estimates of megadrought risk.

  9. Alternative outcomes create biased expectations regarding the received outcome: Evidence from event-related potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marciano, Déborah; Bentin, Shlomo; Deouell, Leon Y

    2018-05-01

    After choosing between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of the chosen option and the outcome of the unchosen option (the alternative). Behavioral research has shown that in such cases people engage in outcome comparison, and that the alternative outcome influences the way one evaluates his own received outcome. Moreover, this influence differs whether one was responsible or not for the choice made. In two studies, we looked for the electrophysiological correlates of outcome comparison. Subjects chose one of two boxes shown on the screen, each box contained a gain or a loss. The alternative outcome was always revealed first, followed by the received outcome. In half of the trials the software picked one box instead of subjects. We tested whether the feedback-related negativity (FRN) and the P3 elicited by the received reflect outcome comparison. As expected, we found that the FRN and P3 were more positive when the received outcome was a gain (vs. a loss). The FRN and P3 were also sensitive to the value of the alternative outcome, but contrary to our predictions, they were more positive when the alternative outcome was a gain (vs. a loss). As the FRN and P3 are sensitive to expectations, we hypothesized that our findings might result from subjects' biased expectations: subjects might have wrongly believed that a good (bad) alternative outcome signaled a bad (good) received outcome. This hypothesis, coined as the Alternative Omen Effect, was confirmed in parallel in a series of behavioral experiments: people see an illusory negative correlation between the uncorrelated outcomes of choice options (reported in Marciano-Romm et al. (2016)). A challenge for future research will be to disentangle the effects of expectation from those of outcome comparison. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. COMAR technical information statement: expert reviews on potential health effects of radiofrequency electromagnetic fields and comments on the bioinitiative report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-01

    The Committee on Man and Radiation (COMAR) is a technical committee of the Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society (EMBS) of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). Its primary area of interest is biological effects of non-ionizing electromagnetic radiation, including radiofrequency (RF) energy. The public interest in possible health effects attributed to RF energy, such as emitted by mobile phones, wireless telephone base stations, TV and radio broadcasting facilities, Wi-Fi systems and many other sources, has been accompanied by commentary in the media that varies considerably in reliability and usefulness for their audience. The focus of this COMAR Technical Information Statement is to identify quality sources of scientific information on potential health risks from exposure to RF energy. This Statement provides readers with references to expert reports and other reliable sources of information about this topic, most of which are available on the Internet. This report summarizes the conclusions from several major reports and comments on the markedly different conclusions in the BioInitiative Report (abbreviated BIR below). Since appearing on the Internet in August 2007, the BIR has received much media attention but, more recently, has been criticized by several health organizations (see Section titled "Views of health agencies about BIR"). COMAR concludes that the weight of scientific evidence in the RF bioeffects literature does not support the safety limits recommended by the BioInitiative group. For this reason, COMAR recommends that public health officials continue to base their policies on RF safety limits recommended by established and sanctioned international organizations such as the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers International Committee on Electromagnetic Safety and the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection, which is formally related to the World Health Organization.

  11. A review of the carcinogenic potential of glyphosate by four independent expert panels and comparison to the IARC assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Gary M; Aardema, Marilyn; Acquavella, John; Berry, Sir Colin; Brusick, David; Burns, Michele M; de Camargo, Joao Lauro Viana; Garabrant, David; Greim, Helmut A; Kier, Larry D; Kirkland, David J; Marsh, Gary; Solomon, Keith R; Sorahan, Tom; Roberts, Ashley; Weed, Douglas L

    2016-09-01

    The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) published a monograph in 2015 concluding that glyphosate is "probably carcinogenic to humans" (Group 2A) based on limited evidence in humans and sufficient evidence in experimental animals. It was also concluded that there was strong evidence of genotoxicity and oxidative stress. Four Expert Panels have been convened for the purpose of conducting a detailed critique of the evidence in light of IARC's assessment and to review all relevant information pertaining to glyphosate exposure, animal carcinogenicity, genotoxicity, and epidemiologic studies. Two of the Panels (animal bioassay and genetic toxicology) also provided a critique of the IARC position with respect to conclusions made in these areas. The incidences of neoplasms in the animal bioassays were found not to be associated with glyphosate exposure on the basis that they lacked statistical strength, were inconsistent across studies, lacked dose-response relationships, were not associated with preneoplasia, and/or were not plausible from a mechanistic perspective. The overall weight of evidence from the genetic toxicology data supports a conclusion that glyphosate (including GBFs and AMPA) does not pose a genotoxic hazard and therefore, should not be considered support for the classification of glyphosate as a genotoxic carcinogen. The assessment of the epidemiological data found that the data do not support a causal relationship between glyphosate exposure and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma while the data were judged to be too sparse to assess a potential relationship between glyphosate exposure and multiple myeloma. As a result, following the review of the totality of the evidence, the Panels concluded that the data do not support IARC's conclusion that glyphosate is a "probable human carcinogen" and, consistent with previous regulatory assessments, further concluded that glyphosate is unlikely to pose a carcinogenic risk to humans.

  12. EXPERT SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Georgiana Marin; Mihai Catalin Andrei

    2011-01-01

    In recent decades IT and computer systems have evolved rapidly in economic informatics field. The goal is to create user friendly information systems that respond promptly and accurately to requests. Informatics systems evolved into decision assisted systems, and such systems are converted, based on gained experience, in expert systems for creative problem solving that an organization is facing. Expert systems are aimed at rebuilding human reasoning on the expertise obtained from experts, sto...

  13. Expert System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hildebrandt, Thomas Troels; Cattani, Gian Luca

    2016-01-01

    An expert system is a computer system for inferring knowledge from a knowledge base, typically by using a set of inference rules. When the concept of expert systems was introduced at Stanford University in the early 1970s, the knowledge base was an unstructured set of facts. Today the knowledge b...... for the application of expert systems, but also raises issues regarding privacy and legal liability....

  14. Food for thought? Potential conflicts of interest in academic experts advising government and charities on dietary policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Newton

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A conflict of interest (CoI can occur between public duty and private interest, in which a public official’s private-capacity interest could improperly influence the performance of their official duties and responsibilities. The most tangible and commonly considered CoI are financial. However, CoI can also arise due to other types of influence including interpersonal relationships, career progression, or ideology. CoI thus exist in academia, business, government and non-governmental organisations. However, public knowledge of CoI is currently limited due to a lack of information. The mechanisms of managing potential conflicts of interest also remain unclear due to a lack of guidelines. We therefore examined the independence of academic experts and how well potential CoI are identified and addressed in four government and non-governmental organisations in the UK responsible for the development of food policy. Methods Policy analysis. We developed an analytical framework to explore CoI in high-level UK food policy advice, using four case studies. Two government policy-making bodies: Department of Health ‘Obesity Review Group’ (ORG, ‘Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition’ (SACN and two charities: ‘Action on Sugar’ (AoS, & ‘Heart of Mersey’ (HoM. Information was obtained from publicly available sources and declarations. We developed a five point ordinal scale based upon the ideology of the Nolan Principles of Public Life. Group members were individually categorised on the ordinal ConScale from “0”, (complete independence from the food and drink industry to “4”, (employed by the food and drink industry or a representative organisation. Results CoI involving various industries have long been evident in policy making, academia and clinical practice. Suggested approaches for managing CoI could be categorised as “deny”, “describe”, or “diminish”. Declared CoI were common in the ORG and SACN

  15. Computer Based Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, James D.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    1985-01-01

    Claims knowledge-based expert computer systems can meet needs of rural schools for affordable expert advice and support and will play an important role in the future of rural education. Describes potential applications in prediction, interpretation, diagnosis, remediation, planning, monitoring, and instruction. (NEC)

  16. Stress potentiates decision biases: A stress induced deliberation-to-intuition (SIDI model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongjun Yu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Humans often make decisions in stressful situations, for example when the stakes are high and the potential consequences severe, or when the clock is ticking and the task demand is overwhelming. In response, a whole train of biological responses to stress has evolved to allow organisms to make a fight-or-flight response. When under stress, fast and effortless heuristics may dominate over slow and demanding deliberation in making decisions under uncertainty. Here, I review evidence from behavioral studies and neuroimaging research on decision making under stress and propose that stress elicits a switch from an analytic reasoning system to intuitive processes, and predict that this switch is associated with diminished activity in the prefrontal executive control regions and exaggerated activity in subcortical reactive emotion brain areas. Previous studies have shown that when stressed, individuals tend to make more habitual responses than goal-directed choices, be less likely to adjust their initial judgment, and rely more on gut feelings in social situations. It is possible that stress influences the arbitration between the emotion responses in subcortical regions and deliberative processes in the prefrontal cortex, so that final decisions are based on unexamined innate responses. Future research may further test this ‘stress induced deliberation-to-intuition’ (SIDI model and examine its underlying neural mechanisms.

  17. Expert ease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1984-04-01

    Expert-ease allows the most inexperienced of computer users to build an expert system in a matter of hours. It is nothing more or less than a computer based problem-solving system. It allows the expert to preserve his or her knowledge in the form of rules, which can be applied to problems put to the system by the non-expert. The crucial piece of software at the heart of Expert-Ease extracts rules from data, and is called the analogue concept learning system. It was developed by Intelligent Terminals Ltd. and supplied to Export Software International to be incorporated into a commercially attractive package for business users. The resulting product runs on the Act Sirius and the IBM PC and compatibles. It is a well conceived and polished product with a popular appeal that should ensure widespread acceptance even at a cost of >1500 plus vat.

  18. How planners' use and non-use of expert knowledge in land use and transport planning affect the goal achievement potential of plans? Experiences from three Scandinavian cities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tennøy, Aud; Hansson, Lisa; Lissandrello, Enza

    2016-01-01

    regions. Even if diffusion of research-based knowledge have been investigated, planners' use of expert knowledge when making plans, and the effects on the content of plans, have gained surprisingly little attention in planning research. Over the past few years, interesting discussions concerning...... achievement potential of plans. This knowledge is the main basis for many planners' knowing and acting, and fundamental for land use and transport planning being coordinated and for traffic-reducing measures being included in the plans. The knowledge is used for explaining cause-effect relations......, and as arguments for selecting traffic-reducing measures. All examined plans also include strategies reducing their goal achievement potentials. This happens through a mix of mechanisms. When competing objectives or ideas seemingly call for traffic-increasing measures, the planners do not use the expert knowledge...

  19. Bias against research on gender bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cislak, Aleksandra; Formanowicz, Magdalena; Saguy, Tamar

    2018-01-01

    The bias against women in academia is a documented phenomenon that has had detrimental consequences, not only for women, but also for the quality of science. First, gender bias in academia affects female scientists, resulting in their underrepresentation in academic institutions, particularly in higher ranks. The second type of gender bias in science relates to some findings applying only to male participants, which produces biased knowledge. Here, we identify a third potentially powerful source of gender bias in academia: the bias against research on gender bias. In a bibliometric investigation covering a broad range of social sciences, we analyzed published articles on gender bias and race bias and established that articles on gender bias are funded less often and published in journals with a lower Impact Factor than articles on comparable instances of social discrimination. This result suggests the possibility of an underappreciation of the phenomenon of gender bias and related research within the academic community. Addressing this meta-bias is crucial for the further examination of gender inequality, which severely affects many women across the world.

  20. Deceleration of probe beam by stage bias potential improves resolution of serial block-face scanning electron microscopic images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwer, James C; Deerinck, Thomas J; Bushong, Eric; Astakhov, Vadim; Ramachandra, Ranjan; Peltier, Steven T; Ellisman, Mark H

    2017-01-01

    Serial block-face scanning electron microscopy (SBEM) is quickly becoming an important imaging tool to explore three-dimensional biological structure across spatial scales. At probe-beam-electron energies of 2.0 keV or lower, the axial resolution should improve, because there is less primary electron penetration into the block face. More specifically, at these lower energies, the interaction volume is much smaller, and therefore, surface detail is more highly resolved. However, the backscattered electron yield for metal contrast agents and the backscattered electron detector sensitivity are both sub-optimal at these lower energies, thus negating the gain in axial resolution. We found that the application of a negative voltage (reversal potential) applied to a modified SBEM stage creates a tunable electric field at the sample. This field can be used to decrease the probe-beam-landing energy and, at the same time, alter the trajectory of the signal to increase the signal collected by the detector. With decelerated low landing-energy electrons, we observed that the probe-beam-electron-penetration depth was reduced to less than 30 nm in epoxy-embedded biological specimens. Concurrently, a large increase in recorded signal occurred due to the re-acceleration of BSEs in the bias field towards the objective pole piece where the detector is located. By tuning the bias field, we were able to manipulate the trajectories of the  primary and secondary electrons, enabling the spatial discrimination of these signals using an advanced ring-type BSE detector configuration or a standard monolithic BSE detector coupled with a blocking aperture.

  1. Expert Witness

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adele

    formal rules of evidence apply) to help it understand the issues of a case and ... statements on medical expert witness by professional representative bodies in .... determining the size of the financial settlement that may have to be made to the.

  2. Time course of affective bias in visual attention: convergent evidence from steady-state visual evoked potentials and behavioral data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindi Attar, Catherine; Andersen, Søren K; Müller, Matthias M

    2010-12-01

    Selective attention to a primary task can be biased by the occurrence of emotional distractors that involuntary attract attention due to their intrinsic stimulus significance. What is largely unknown is the time course and magnitude of competitive interactions between a to-be-attended foreground task and emotional distractors. We used pleasant, unpleasant and neutral pictures from the International Affective Picture System (IAPS) that were either presented in intact or phase-scrambled form. Pictures were superimposed by a flickering display of moving random dots, which constituted the primary task and enabled us to record steady-state visual evoked potentials (SSVEPs) as a continuous measure of attentional resource allocation directed to the task. Subjects were required to attend to the dots and to detect short intervals of coherent motion while ignoring the background pictures. We found that pleasant and unpleasant relative to neutral pictures more strongly influenced task-related processing as reflected in a significant decrease in SSVEP amplitudes and target detection rates, both covering a time window of several hundred milliseconds. Strikingly, the effect of semantic relative to phase-scrambled pictures on task-related activity was much larger, emerged earlier and lasted longer in time compared to the specific effect of emotion. The observed differences in size and duration of time courses of semantic and emotional picture processing strengthen the assumption of separate functional mechanisms for both processes rather than a general boosting of neural activity in favor of emotional stimulus processing. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. A potential gender bias in assessing quality of life – a standard gamble experiment among university students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Al Obaidi L

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Leath Al Obaidi,1 Jörg Mahlich2,3 1University of Nottingham, School of Economics, Nottingham, UK; 2Health Economics, Janssen KK, Tokyo, Japan; 3Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE, University of Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany Background: There are several methodologies that can be used for evaluating patients' perception of their quality of life. Most commonly, utilities are directly elicited by means of either the time-trade-off or the standard-gamble method. In both methods, risk attitudes determine the quality of life values. Methods: Quality of life values among 31 Austrian undergraduate students were elicited by means of the standard gamble approach. The impact of several variables such as gender, side job, length of study, and living arrangements on the quality of life were identified using different types of regression techniques (ordinary least squares, generalized linear model, Betafit. Results: Significant evidence was found that females are associated with a higher quality of life in all specifications of our estimations. Discussion: The observed gender differences in quality of life can be attributed to a higher degree of risk aversion of women. A higher risk aversion leads to a higher valuation of given health states and a potential gender bias in health economic evaluations. This result could have implications for health policy planners when it comes to budget allocation decisions. Keywords: quality of life, gender, risk aversion, standard gamble, students 

  4. Long-term trajectories of lower extremity function in older adults: estimating gender differences while accounting for potential mortality bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botoseneanu, Anda; Allore, Heather G; Gahbauer, Evelyne A; Gill, Thomas M

    2013-07-01

    Gender-specific trajectories of lower extremity function (LEF) and the potential for bias in LEF estimation due to differences in survival have been understudied. We evaluated longitudinal data from 690 initially nondisabled adults age 70 or older from the Precipitating Events Project. LEF was assessed every 18 months for 12 years using a modified Short Physical Performance Battery (mSPPB). Hierarchical linear models with adjustments for length-of-survival estimated the intraindividual trajectory of LEF and differences in trajectory intercept and slope between men and women. LEF declined following a nonlinear trajectory. In the full sample, and among participants with high (mSPPB 10-12) and intermediate (mSPPB 7-9) baseline LEF, the rate-of-decline in mSPPB was slower in women than in men, with no gender differences in baseline mSPPB scores. Among participants with low baseline LEF (mSPPB ≤6), men had a higher starting mSPPB score, whereas women experienced a deceleration in the rate-of-decline over time. In all groups, participants who survived longer had higher starting mSPPB scores and slower rates-of-decline compared with those who died sooner. Over the course of 12 years, older women preserve LEF better than men. Nonadjustment for differences in survival results in overestimating the level and underestimating the rate-of-decline in LEF over time.

  5. Sex-biased miRNAs in gonad and their potential roles for testis development in yellow catfish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Jing; Wu, Junjie; Liu, Wei; Xiong, Shuting; Ma, Wenge; Zhang, Jin; Wang, Weimin; Gui, Jian-Fang; Mei, Jie

    2014-01-01

    Recently, YY super-male yellow catfish had been created by hormonal-induced sex reversal and sex-linked markers, which provides a promising research model for fish sex differentiation and gonad development, especially for testis development. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) have been revealed to play crucial roles in the gene regulation and gonad development in vertebrates. In this study, three small RNA libraries constructed from gonad tissues of XX female, XY male and YY super-male yellow catfish were sequenced. The sequencing data generated a total of 384 conserved miRNAs and 113 potential novel miRNAs, among which 23, 30 and 14 miRNAs were specifically detected in XX ovary, XY testis, and YY testis, respectively. We observed relative lower expression of several miR-200 family members, including miR-141 and miR-429 in YY testis compared with XY testis. Histological analysis indicated a higher degree of testis maturity in YY super-males compared with XY males, as shown by larger spermatogenic cyst, more spermatids and fewer spermatocytes in the spermatogenic cyst. Moreover, five miR-200 family members were significantly up-regulated in testis when treated by 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), high dose of which will impair testis development and cell proliferation. The down-regulation of miR-141 and 429 coincides with the progression of testis development in both yellow catfish and human. At last, the expression pattern of nine arbitrarily selected miRNAs detected by quantitative RT-PCR was consistent with the Solexa sequencing results. Our study provides a comprehensive miRNA transcriptome analysis for gonad of yellow catfish with different sex genotypes, and identifies a number of sex-biased miRNAs, some of that are potentially involved in testis development and spermatogenesis.

  6. Biased information processing in the escalation paradigm: information search and information evaluation as potential mediators of escalating commitment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultze, Thomas; Pfeiffer, Felix; Schulz-Hardt, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    Escalation of commitment denotes decision makers' increased reinvestment of resources in a losing course of action. Despite the relevance of this topic, little is known about how information is processed in escalation situations, that is, whether decision makers who receive negative outcome feedback on their initial decision search for and/or process information biasedly and whether these biases contribute to escalating commitment. Contrary to a widely cited study by E. J. Conlon and J. M. Parks (1987), in 3 experiments, the authors found that biases do not occur on the level of information search. Neither in a direct replication and extension of the original study with largely increased test power (Experiment 1) nor under methodologically improved conditions (Experiments 2 and 3) did decision makers responsible for failure differ from nonresponsible decision makers with regards to information search, and no selective search for information supporting the initial decision or voting for further reinvestment was observed. However, Experiments 3 and 4 show that the evaluation of the previously sought information is biased among participants who were responsible for initiating the course of action. Mediation analyses show that this evaluation bias in favor of reinvestment partially mediated the responsibility effect on escalation of commitment.

  7. Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

    1994-01-01

    Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

  8. 20170921 - An evaluation of selected (Q)SARs/expert systems for the Prediction of Skin Sensitization Potential (ASCCT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Predictive testing to characterize substances for their skin sensitization potential has historically been based on animal models such as the Local Lymph Node Assay (LLNA) and the Guinea Pig Maximization Test (GPMT). In recent years, EU regulations have provided a strong incentiv...

  9. Communication: Estimating the initial biasing potential for λ-local-elevation umbrella-sampling (λ-LEUS) simulations via slow growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bieler, Noah S.; Hünenberger, Philippe H.

    2014-01-01

    In a recent article [Bieler et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 10, 3006–3022 (2014)], we introduced a combination of the λ-dynamics (λD) approach for calculating alchemical free-energy differences and of the local-elevation umbrella-sampling (LEUS) memory-based biasing method to enhance the sampling along the alchemical coordinate. The combined scheme, referred to as λ-LEUS, was applied to the perturbation of hydroquinone to benzene in water as a test system, and found to represent an improvement over thermodynamic integration (TI) in terms of sampling efficiency at equivalent accuracy. However, the preoptimization of the biasing potential required in the λ-LEUS method requires “filling up” all the basins in the potential of mean force. This introduces a non-productive pre-sampling time that is system-dependent, and generally exceeds the corresponding equilibration time in a TI calculation. In this letter, a remedy is proposed to this problem, termed the slow growth memory guessing (SGMG) approach. Instead of initializing the biasing potential to zero at the start of the preoptimization, an approximate potential of mean force is estimated from a short slow growth calculation, and its negative used to construct the initial memory. Considering the same test system as in the preceding article, it is shown that of the application of SGMG in λ-LEUS permits to reduce the preoptimization time by about a factor of four

  10. Communication: Estimating the initial biasing potential for λ-local-elevation umbrella-sampling (λ-LEUS) simulations via slow growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bieler, Noah S.; Hünenberger, Philippe H., E-mail: phil@igc.phys.chem.ethz.ch [Laboratory of Physical Chemistry, ETH Zürich, CH-8093 Zürich (Switzerland)

    2014-11-28

    In a recent article [Bieler et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 10, 3006–3022 (2014)], we introduced a combination of the λ-dynamics (λD) approach for calculating alchemical free-energy differences and of the local-elevation umbrella-sampling (LEUS) memory-based biasing method to enhance the sampling along the alchemical coordinate. The combined scheme, referred to as λ-LEUS, was applied to the perturbation of hydroquinone to benzene in water as a test system, and found to represent an improvement over thermodynamic integration (TI) in terms of sampling efficiency at equivalent accuracy. However, the preoptimization of the biasing potential required in the λ-LEUS method requires “filling up” all the basins in the potential of mean force. This introduces a non-productive pre-sampling time that is system-dependent, and generally exceeds the corresponding equilibration time in a TI calculation. In this letter, a remedy is proposed to this problem, termed the slow growth memory guessing (SGMG) approach. Instead of initializing the biasing potential to zero at the start of the preoptimization, an approximate potential of mean force is estimated from a short slow growth calculation, and its negative used to construct the initial memory. Considering the same test system as in the preceding article, it is shown that of the application of SGMG in λ-LEUS permits to reduce the preoptimization time by about a factor of four.

  11. The use of experts and their judgments in nursing research: an overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JC Bruce

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Experts and their judgments are widely used in the fields of research, education, health care, law, commerce and technology. Expert judgment is known for its subjectivity and its potential for bias, which brings into question the accuracy and authenticity of judgmental data. At the same time there is acknowledgment of the valued contribution of judgmental data towards valid inferences in research and education. Maximizing the use of experts and their judgments has therefore become an endeavour of educationists and researchers alike.

  12. A fast, open source implementation of adaptive biasing potentials uncovers a ligand design strategy for the chromatin regulator BRD4

    OpenAIRE

    Dickson, Bradley M.; de Waal, Parker W; Ramjan, Zachary H; Xu, H Eric; Rothbart, Scott B.

    2016-01-01

    In this communication we introduce an efficient implementation of adaptive biasing that greatly improves the speed of free energy computation in molecular dynamics simulations. We investigated the use of accelerated simulations to inform on compound design using a recently reported and clinically relevant inhibitor of the chromatin regulator BRD4 (bromodomain-containing protein 4). Benchmarking on our local compute cluster, our implementation achieves up to 2.5 times more force calls per day ...

  13. A Critical Examination of Spatial Biases Between MODIS and MISR Aerosol Products - Application for Potential AERONET Deployment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Y.; Zhang, J.; Reid, J. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Eck, T. F.; Holben, B. N.; Kahn, R. A.

    2011-01-01

    AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data are the primary benchmark for evaluating satellite-retrieved aerosol properties. However, despite its extensive coverage, the representativeness of the AERONET data is rarely discussed. Indeed, many studies have shown that satellite retrieval biases have a significant degree of spatial correlation that may be problematic for higher-level processes or inverse-emissions-modeling studies. To consider these issues and evaluate relative performance in regions of few surface observations, cross-comparisons between the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) products of operational MODIS Collection 5.1 Dark Target (DT) and operational MODIS Collection 5.1 Deep Blue (DB) with MISR version 22 were conducted. Through such comparisons, we can observe coherent spatial features of the AOD bias while side-stepping the full analysis required for determining when or where either retrieval is more correct. We identify regions where MODIS to MISR AOD ratios were found to be above 1.4 and below 0.7. Regions where lower boundary condition uncertainty is likely to be a dominant factor include portions of Western North America, the Andes mountains, Saharan Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and Central Asia. Similarly, microphysical biases may be an issue in South America, and specific parts of Southern Africa, India Asia, East Asia, and Indonesia. These results help identify high-priority locations for possible future deployments of both in situ and ground based remote sensing measurements. The Supplement includes a km1 file.

  14. The World (of Warcraft through the eyes of an expert

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yousri Marzouki

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Negative correlations between pupil size and the tendency to look at salient locations were found in recent studies (e.g., Mathôt et al., 2015. It is hypothesized that this negative correlation might be explained by the mental effort put by participants in the task that leads in return to pupil dilation. Here we present an exploratory study on the effect of expertise on eye-movement behavior. Because there is no available standard tool to evaluate WoW players’ expertise, we built an off-game questionnaire testing players’ knowledge about WoW and acquired skills through completed raids, highest rated battlegrounds, Skill Points, etc. Experts (N = 4 and novices (N = 4 in the massively multiplayer online role-playing game World of Warcraft (WoW viewed 24 designed video segments from the game that differ in regards with their content (i.e, informative locations and visual complexity (i.e, salient locations. Consistent with previous studies, we found a negative correlation between pupil size and the tendency to look at salient locations (experts, r =  − .17, p < .0001, and novices, r =  − .09, p < .0001. This correlation has been interpreted in terms of mental effort: People are inherently biased to look at salient locations (sharp corners, bright lights, etc., but are able (i.e., experts to overcome this bias if they invest sufficient mental effort. Crucially, we observed that this correlation was stronger for expert WoW players than novice players (Z =  − 3.3, p = .0011. This suggests that experts learned to improve control over eye-movement behavior by guiding their eyes towards informative, but potentially low-salient areas of the screen. These findings may contribute to our understanding of what makes an expert an expert.

  15. The First Expert CAI System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feurzeig, Wallace

    1984-01-01

    The first expert instructional system, the Socratic System, was developed in 1964. One of the earliest applications of this system was in the area of differential diagnosis in clinical medicine. The power of the underlying instructional paradigm was demonstrated and the potential of the approach for valuably supplementing medical instruction was recognized. Twenty years later, despite further educationally significant advances in expert systems technology and enormous reductions in the cost of computers, expert instructional methods have found very little application in medical schools.

  16. Toward a Better Understanding of the Relationship between Belief in the Paranormal and Statistical Bias: The Potential Role of Schizotypy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagnall, Neil; Denovan, Andrew; Drinkwater, Kenneth; Parker, Andrew; Clough, Peter

    2016-01-01

    The present paper examined relationships between schizotypy (measured by the Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of Feelings and Experience; O-LIFE scale brief), belief in the paranormal (assessed via the Revised Paranormal Belief Scale; RPBS) and proneness to statistical bias (i.e., perception of randomness and susceptibility to conjunction fallacy). Participants were 254 volunteers recruited via convenience sampling. Probabilistic reasoning problems appeared framed within both standard and paranormal contexts. Analysis revealed positive correlations between the Unusual Experience (UnExp) subscale of O-LIFE and paranormal belief measures [RPBS full scale, traditional paranormal beliefs (TPB) and new age philosophy]. Performance on standard problems correlated negatively with UnExp and belief in the paranormal (particularly the TPB dimension of the RPBS). Consideration of specific problem types revealed that perception of randomness associated more strongly with belief in the paranormal than conjunction; both problem types related similarly to UnExp. Structural equation modeling specified that belief in the paranormal mediated the indirect relationship between UnExp and statistical bias. For problems presented in a paranormal context a framing effect occurred. Whilst UnExp correlated positively with conjunction proneness (controlling for perception of randomness), there was no association between UnExp and perception of randomness (controlling for conjunction).

  17. Towards a better understanding of the relationship between belief in the paranormal and statistical bias: The potential role of schizotypy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Dagnall

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The present paper examined relationships between schizotypy (measured by the Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of Feelings and Experience; O-LIFE scale brief, belief in the paranormal (assessed via the Revised Paranormal Belief Scale; RPBS and proneness to statistical bias (i.e., perception of randomness and susceptibility to conjunction fallacy. Participants were 254 volunteers recruited via convenience sampling. Probabilistic reasoning problems appeared framed within both standard and paranormal contexts. Analysis revealed positive correlations between the Unusual Experience subscale of O-LIFE and paranormal belief measures (RPBS full scale, traditional paranormal beliefs and new age philosophy. Performance on standard problems correlated negatively with Unusual Experience and belief in the paranormal (particularly the traditional paranormal belief dimension of the RPBS. Consideration of specific problem types revealed that perception of randomness associated more strongly with belief in the paranormal than conjunction; both problem types related similarly to Unusual Experience. Structural equation modelling specified that belief in the paranormal mediated the indirect relationship between Unusual Experience and statistical bias. For problems presented in a paranormal context a framing effect occurred. Whilst Unusual Experience correlated positively with conjunction proneness (controlling for perception of randomness, there was no association between Unusual Experience and perception of randomness (controlling for conjunction.

  18. Optimistic bias and Facebook use: self-other discrepancies about potential risks and benefits of Facebook use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sunny Jung; Hancock, Jeffrey T

    2015-04-01

    Despite the accumulating evidence on the positive and negative outcomes of Facebook use, how people perceive themselves to be subject to these outcomes as well as the consequences and mechanisms of these perceptions are underexplored. According to optimistic bias, Facebook users may perceive that bad things are more likely to happen to others than to themselves, while good things are more likely to happen to them than to others. The findings from an online survey among Facebook users indicate that the negative psychological and social outcomes of using Facebook were perceived to be more likely to happen to other Facebook users than to themselves, pscams) significantly mediated one's willingness to support Internet regulation, Sobel z=2.49, p=0.01. For positive outcomes of Facebook use, the direction of optimistic bias was reversed, t(235) = -5.52, p<0.01, indicating that people minimized the likelihoods of experiencing positive events from Facebook while assessing that other Facebook users are prone to encounter those positive events. This reversal pattern emerged among those with negative attitudes toward, and low involvement with, Facebook. These findings demonstrate important and novel self-other discrepant perceptions concerning the risks and benefits of Facebook use.

  19. A fast, open source implementation of adaptive biasing potentials uncovers a ligand design strategy for the chromatin regulator BRD4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickson, Bradley M.; de Waal, Parker W.; Ramjan, Zachary H.; Xu, H. Eric; Rothbart, Scott B.

    2016-10-01

    In this communication we introduce an efficient implementation of adaptive biasing that greatly improves the speed of free energy computation in molecular dynamics simulations. We investigated the use of accelerated simulations to inform on compound design using a recently reported and clinically relevant inhibitor of the chromatin regulator BRD4 (bromodomain-containing protein 4). Benchmarking on our local compute cluster, our implementation achieves up to 2.5 times more force calls per day than plumed2. Results of five 1 μs-long simulations are presented, which reveal a conformational switch in the BRD4 inhibitor between a binding competent and incompetent state. Stabilization of the switch led to a -3 kcal/mol improvement of absolute binding free energy. These studies suggest an unexplored ligand design principle and offer new actionable hypotheses for medicinal chemistry efforts against this druggable epigenetic target class.

  20. Assessing the Potential for Bias From Nonresponse to a Study Follow-up Interview: An Example From the Agricultural Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinsky, Jessica L; Richardson, David B; Wing, Steve; Beard, John D; Alavanja, Michael; Beane Freeman, Laura E; Chen, Honglei; Henneberger, Paul K; Kamel, Freya; Sandler, Dale P; Hoppin, Jane A

    2017-08-15

    Prospective cohort studies are important tools for identifying causes of disease. However, these studies are susceptible to attrition. When information collected after enrollment is through interview or exam, attrition leads to missing information for nonrespondents. The Agricultural Health Study enrolled 52,394 farmers in 1993-1997 and collected additional information during subsequent interviews. Forty-six percent of enrolled farmers responded to the 2005-2010 interview; 7% of farmers died prior to the interview. We examined whether response was related to attributes measured at enrollment. To characterize potential bias from attrition, we evaluated differences in associations between smoking and incidence of 3 cancer types between the enrolled cohort and the subcohort of 2005-2010 respondents, using cancer registry information. In the subcohort we evaluated the ability of inverse probability weighting (IPW) to reduce bias. Response was related to age, state, race/ethnicity, education, marital status, smoking, and alcohol consumption. When exposure and outcome were associated and case response was differential by exposure, some bias was observed; IPW conditional on exposure and covariates failed to correct estimates. When response was nondifferential, subcohort and full-cohort estimates were similar, making IPW unnecessary. This example provides a demonstration of investigating the influence of attrition in cohort studies using information that has been self-reported after enrollment. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Expert oracle

    CERN Document Server

    Kyte, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    Shows how to implement software using them and indicating the potential pitfalls. This book covers: Core database structures and utilities; Performance tuning; Advanced SQL features; Extensibility using C, Java and OR features; Security; and Important supplied packages.

  2. Can statistic adjustment of OR minimize the potential confounding bias for meta-analysis of case-control study? A secondary data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tianyi; Nie, Xiaolu; Wu, Zehao; Zhang, Ying; Feng, Guoshuang; Cai, Siyu; Lv, Yaqi; Peng, Xiaoxia

    2017-12-29

    Different confounder adjustment strategies were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) in case-control study, i.e. how many confounders original studies adjusted and what the variables are. This secondary data analysis is aimed to detect whether there are potential biases caused by difference of confounding factor adjustment strategies in case-control study, and whether such bias would impact the summary effect size of meta-analysis. We included all meta-analyses that focused on the association between breast cancer and passive smoking among non-smoking women, as well as each original case-control studies included in these meta-analyses. The relative deviations (RDs) of each original study were calculated to detect how magnitude the adjustment would impact the estimation of ORs, compared with crude ORs. At the same time, a scatter diagram was sketched to describe the distribution of adjusted ORs with different number of adjusted confounders. Substantial inconsistency existed in meta-analysis of case-control studies, which would influence the precision of the summary effect size. First, mixed unadjusted and adjusted ORs were used to combine individual OR in majority of meta-analysis. Second, original studies with different adjustment strategies of confounders were combined, i.e. the number of adjusted confounders and different factors being adjusted in each original study. Third, adjustment did not make the effect size of original studies trend to constringency, which suggested that model fitting might have failed to correct the systematic error caused by confounding. The heterogeneity of confounder adjustment strategies in case-control studies may lead to further bias for summary effect size in meta-analyses, especially for weak or medium associations so that the direction of causal inference would be even reversed. Therefore, further methodological researches are needed, referring to the assessment of confounder adjustment strategies, as well as how to take this kind

  3. Sympathetic bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, David M; Peart, Sandra J

    2008-06-01

    We wish to deal with investigator bias in a statistical context. We sketch how a textbook solution to the problem of "outliers" which avoids one sort of investigator bias, creates the temptation for another sort. We write down a model of the approbation seeking statistician who is tempted by sympathy for client to violate the disciplinary standards. We give a simple account of one context in which we might expect investigator bias to flourish. Finally, we offer tentative suggestions to deal with the problem of investigator bias which follow from our account. As we have given a very sparse and stylized account of investigator bias, we ask what might be done to overcome this limitation.

  4. Interwell radiative recombination in the presence of random potential fluctuations in GaAs/AlGaAs biased double quantum wells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Timofeev, V.B.; Larionov, A.V.; Ioselevich, A.S.

    1998-01-01

    narrowing with temperature increase from 4.5 to 30 K. A theoretical model is presented which explains the observed narrowing in terms of lateral thermally activated tunneling of spatially separated e-h pairs localized by random potential fluctuations in the quantum wells. (C) 1998 American Institute......The interwell radiative recombination from biased double quantum wells (DQW) in pin GaAs/AlGaAs heterostructures is investigated at different temperatures and external electrical fields. The luminescence line of interwell recombination of spatially separated electron-hole pairs exhibits systematic...

  5. Preserving experience through expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jelinek, J.B.; Weidman, S.H.

    1989-01-01

    Expert systems technology, one of the branches in the field of computerized artificial intelligence, has existed for >30 yr but only recently has been made available on commercially standard hardware and software platforms. An expert system can be defined as any method of encoding knowledge by representing that knowledge as a collection of facts or objects. Decisions are made by the expert program by obtaining data about the problem or situation and correlating encoded facts (knowledge) to the data until a conclusion can be reached. Such conclusions can be relayed to the end user as expert advice. Realizing the potential of this technology, General Electric (GE) Nuclear Energy (GENE) has initiated a development program in expert systems applications; this technology offers the potential for packaging, distributing, and preserving nuclear experience in a software form. The paper discusses application fields, effective applications, and knowledge acquisition and knowledge verification

  6. Clustering of quasars in SDSS-IV eBOSS: study of potential systematics and bias determination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laurent, Pierre; Goff, Jean-Marc Le; Burtin, Etienne; Bourboux, Hélion du Mas des; Palanque-Delabrouille, Nathalie [IRFU, CEA, Université Paris-Saclay, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Eftekharzadeh, Sarah; Myers, Adam [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071 (United States); White, Martin [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 1 Cyclotron Rd, Berkeley CA 94720 (United States); Ross, Ashley J. [Center for Cosmology and AstroParticle Physics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Tinker, Jeremy [Center for Cosmology and Particle Physics, Department of Physics, New York University, New York, 10003 (United States); Tojeiro, Rita [School of Physics and Astronomy, North Haugh, St. Andrews KY16 9SS (United Kingdom); Bautista, Julian; Dawson, Kyle [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 (United States); Brinkmann, Jonathan [Apache Point Observatory, P.O. Box 59, Sunspot, NM 88349 (United States); Comparat, Johan [Max-Planck-Institut für Extraterrestrische Physik, Giessenbachstraße, 85748 Garching (Germany); Kneib, Jean-Paul [Laboratoire d' Astrophysique, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne (Switzerland); McGreer, Ian D. [Steward Observatory, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721–0065 (United States); Percival, Will J. [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Dennis Sciama building, PO1 3FX, Portsmouth (United Kingdom); Prada, Francisco, E-mail: jmlegoff@cea.fr [Instituto de Fìsica Teórica (IFT) UAM/CSIC, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Cantoblanco, E-28049 Madrid (Spain); and others

    2017-07-01

    We study the first year of the eBOSS quasar sample in the redshift range 0.9< z <2.2 which includes 68,772 homogeneously selected quasars. We show that the main source of systematics in the evaluation of the correlation function arises from inhomogeneities in the quasar target selection, particularly related to the extinction and depth of the imaging data used for targeting. We propose a weighting scheme that mitigates these systematics. We measure the quasar correlation function and provide the most accurate measurement to date of the quasar bias in this redshift range, b {sub Q} = 2.45 ± 0.05 at z-bar =1.55, together with its evolution with redshift. We use this information to determine the minimum mass of the halo hosting the quasars and the characteristic halo mass, which we find to be both independent of redshift within statistical error. Using a recently-measured quasar-luminosity-function we also determine the quasar duty cycle. The size of this first year sample is insufficient to detect any luminosity dependence to quasar clustering and this issue should be further studied with the final ∼500,000 eBOSS quasar sample.

  7. Payoff Information Biases a Fast Guess Process in Perceptual Decision Making under Deadline Pressure: Evidence from Behavior, Evoked Potentials, and Quantitative Model Comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noorbaloochi, Sharareh; Sharon, Dahlia; McClelland, James L

    2015-08-05

    We used electroencephalography (EEG) and behavior to examine the role of payoff bias in a difficult two-alternative perceptual decision under deadline pressure in humans. The findings suggest that a fast guess process, biased by payoff and triggered by stimulus onset, occurred on a subset of trials and raced with an evidence accumulation process informed by stimulus information. On each trial, the participant judged whether a rectangle was shifted to the right or left and responded by squeezing a right- or left-hand dynamometer. The payoff for each alternative (which could be biased or unbiased) was signaled 1.5 s before stimulus onset. The choice response was assigned to the first hand reaching a squeeze force criterion and reaction time was defined as time to criterion. Consistent with a fast guess account, fast responses were strongly biased toward the higher-paying alternative and the EEG exhibited an abrupt rise in the lateralized readiness potential (LRP) on a subset of biased payoff trials contralateral to the higher-paying alternative ∼ 150 ms after stimulus onset and 50 ms before stimulus information influenced the LRP. This rise was associated with poststimulus dynamometer activity favoring the higher-paying alternative and predicted choice and response time. Quantitative modeling supported the fast guess account over accounts of payoff effects supported in other studies. Our findings, taken with previous studies, support the idea that payoff and prior probability manipulations produce flexible adaptations to task structure and do not reflect a fixed policy for the integration of payoff and stimulus information. Humans and other animals often face situations in which they must make choices based on uncertain sensory information together with information about expected outcomes (gains or losses) about each choice. We investigated how differences in payoffs between available alternatives affect neural activity, overt choice, and the timing of choice

  8. Effect of electro-acupuncture intervention on cognition attention bias in heroin addiction abstinence-a dot-probe-based event-related potential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Ying-Ping; Liu, Hao; Xu, Ping; Wang, Yan; Lu, Guang-Hua

    2011-04-01

    To study the changes of cognitive attention-related brain function in the heroin addicts before and after electro-acupuncture (EA) intervention for exploring the concerned neuro-mechanism of addictive relapse and the central action role of EA intervention. Adopting event-related potential (ERP) technique, the ERP at 64 electrode spots in 10 heroin addicts (test group) were recorded before and after EA intervention with dot-probe experimental form during implementing cognitive task on positive emotional clue (PEC), negative emotional clues (NEC), and heroin-related clue (HRC). The P200 amplitude components on the selected observation points (Fz, Cz, and Pz) were analyzed and compared with those obtained from 10 healthy subjects as the control. Before EA, the ERP of attention on HRC in the test group was higher than that on PEC and NEC (Pattention on HRC at Cz and Pz was significantly lowered (P PEC > HRC, but in the control group, it showed PEC > HRC at all three observation points and PEC > NEC at Pz. Heroin addicts show attention bias to HRC, which could be significantly reduced by EA intervention, illustrating that EA could effectively inhibit the attention bias to heroin and so might have potential for lowering the relapse rate.

  9. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) and expert testimony.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulich, Ronald; Maciewicz, Raymond; Scrivani, Steven J

    2009-03-01

    Medical experts frequently use imaging studies to illustrate points in their court testimony. This article reviews how these studies impact the credibility of expert testimony with judges and juries. The apparent "objective" evidence provided by such imaging studies can lend strong credence to a judge's or jury's appraisal of medical expert's testimony. However, as the court usually has no specialized scientific expertise, the use of complex images as part of courtroom testimony also has the potential to mislead or at least inappropriately bias the weight given to expert evidence. Recent advances in brain imaging may profoundly impact forensic expert testimony. Functional magnetic resonance imaging and other physiologic imaging techniques currently allow visualization of the activation pattern of brain regions associated with a wide variety of cognitive and behavioral tasks, and more recently, pain. While functional imaging technology has a valuable role in brain research and clinical investigation, it is important to emphasize that the use of imaging studies in forensic matters requires a careful scientific foundation and a rigorous legal assessment.

  10. Expert opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferrer, Marta; Boccon-Gibod, Isabelle; Gonçalo, Margarida

    2017-01-01

    Omalizumab (a recombinant, humanized anti-immunoglobulin-E antibody) has been shown in three pivotal Phase III trials (ASTERIA I, II and GLACIAL) and real-world studies to be effective and well-tolerated for the treatment of chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU), and is the only licensed third......-line treatment for CSU. However, the definition of response to omalizumab treatment often differs between clinical trials, real-world studies, and daily practice of individual physicians globally. As such, a consensus definition of "complete", "partial" and "non-response" to omalizumab is required in order...... into a patient's disease burden and its changes during treatment. A potential omalizumab treatment approach based on speed and pattern of response at 1-3 and 3-6 months is suggested. In cases where there is no response during the first 1-3 months, physicians should consider reassessing the original CSU diagnosis...

  11. ALICE Expert System

    CERN Document Server

    Ionita, C

    2014-01-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in dierent system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by reg...

  12. ALICE Expert System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionita, C; Carena, F

    2014-01-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period

  13. Predicting Crashes Using Traffic Offences. A Meta-Analysis that Examines Potential Bias between Self-Report and Archival Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    af Wåhlberg, Anders; Freeman, James; Watson, Barry; Watson, Angela

    2016-01-01

    Background Traffic offences have been considered an important predictor of crash involvement, and have often been used as a proxy safety variable for crashes. However the association between crashes and offences has never been meta-analysed and the population effect size never established. Research is yet to determine the extent to which this relationship may be spuriously inflated through systematic measurement error, with obvious implications for researchers endeavouring to accurately identify salient factors predictive of crashes. Methodology and Principal Findings Studies yielding a correlation between crashes and traffic offences were collated and a meta-analysis of 144 effects drawn from 99 road safety studies conducted. Potential impact of factors such as age, time period, crash and offence rates, crash severity and data type, sourced from either self-report surveys or archival records, were considered and discussed. After weighting for sample size, an average correlation of r = .18 was observed over the mean time period of 3.2 years. Evidence emerged suggesting the strength of this correlation is decreasing over time. Stronger correlations between crashes and offences were generally found in studies involving younger drivers. Consistent with common method variance effects, a within country analysis found stronger effect sizes in self-reported data even controlling for crash mean. Significance The effectiveness of traffic offences as a proxy for crashes may be limited. Inclusion of elements such as independently validated crash and offence histories or accurate measures of exposure to the road would facilitate a better understanding of the factors that influence crash involvement. PMID:27128093

  14. Journal bias or author bias?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Ian

    2016-01-01

    I read with interest the comment by Mark Wilson in the Indian Journal of Medical Ethics regarding bias and conflicts of interest in medical journals. Wilson targets one journal (the New England Journal of Medicine: NEJM) and one particular "scandal" to make his point that journals' decisions on publication are biased by commercial conflicts of interest (CoIs). It is interesting that he chooses the NEJM which, by his own admission, had one of the strictest CoI policies and had published widely on this topic. The feeling is that if the NEJM can be guilty, they can all be guilty.

  15. Medical Expert Systems Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Abu-Nasser, Bassem S.

    2017-01-01

    International audience; There is an increased interest in the area of Artificial Intelligence in general and expert systems in particular. Expert systems are rapidly growing technology. Expert systems are a branch of Artificial Intelligence which is having a great impact on many fields of human life. Expert systems use human expert knowledge to solve complex problems in many fields such as Health, science, engineering, business, and weather forecasting. Organizations employing the technology ...

  16. Inconsistencies in quality of life data collection in clinical trials: a potential source of bias? Interviews with research nurses and trialists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyte, Derek; Ives, Jonathan; Draper, Heather; Keeley, Thomas; Calvert, Melanie

    2013-01-01

    Patient-reported outcomes (PROs), such as health-related quality of life (HRQL) are increasingly used to evaluate treatment effectiveness in clinical trials, are valued by patients, and may inform important decisions in the clinical setting. It is of concern, therefore, that preliminary evidence, gained from group discussions at UK-wide Medical Research Council (MRC) quality of life training days, suggests there are inconsistent standards of HRQL data collection in trials and appropriate training and education is often lacking. Our objective was to investigate these reports, to determine if they represented isolated experiences, or were indicative of a potentially wider problem. We undertook a qualitative study, conducting 26 semi-structured interviews with research nurses, data managers, trial coordinators and research facilitators involved in the collection and entry of HRQL data in clinical trials, across one primary care NHS trust, two secondary care NHS trusts and two clinical trials units in the UK. We used conventional content analysis to analyze and interpret our data. Our study participants reported (1) inconsistent standards in HRQL measurement, both between, and within, trials, which appeared to risk the introduction of bias; (2), difficulties in dealing with HRQL data that raised concern for the well-being of the trial participant, which in some instances led to the delivery of non-protocol driven co-interventions, (3), a frequent lack of HRQL protocol content and appropriate training and education of trial staff, and (4) that HRQL data collection could be associated with emotional and/or ethical burden. Our findings suggest there are inconsistencies in the standards of HRQL data collection in some trials resulting from a general lack of HRQL-specific protocol content, training and education. These inconsistencies could lead to biased HRQL trial results. Future research should aim to develop HRQL guidelines and training programmes aimed at supporting

  17. The own-age bias in face memory is unrelated to differences in attention--evidence from event-related potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Markus F; End, Albert; Luttmann, Stefanie; Schweinberger, Stefan R; Wiese, Holger

    2015-03-01

    Participants are more accurate at remembering faces from their own relative to a different age group (the own-age bias, or OAB). A recent socio-cognitive account has suggested that differential allocation of attention to old versus young faces underlies this phenomenon. Critically, empirical evidence for a direct relationship between attention to own- versus other-age faces and the OAB in memory is lacking. To fill this gap, we tested the roles of attention in three different experimental paradigms, and additionally analyzed event-related brain potentials (ERPs). In Experiment 1, we compared the learning of old and young faces during focused versus divided attention, but revealed similar OABs in subsequent memory for both attention conditions. Similarly, manipulating attention during learning did not differentially affect the ERPs elicited by young versus old faces. In Experiment 2, we examined the repetition effects from task-irrelevant old and young faces presented under varying attentional loads on the N250r ERP component as an index of face recognition. Independent of load, the N250r effects were comparable for both age categories. Finally, in Experiment 3 we measured the N2pc as an index of attentional selection of old versus young target faces in a visual search task. The N2pc was not significantly different for the young versus the old target search conditions, suggesting similar orientations of attention to either face age group. Overall, we propose that the OAB in memory is largely unrelated to early attentional processes. Our findings therefore contrast with the predictions from socio-cognitive accounts on own-group biases in recognition memory, and are more easily reconciled with expertise-based models.

  18. Biased Supervision

    OpenAIRE

    Josse Delfgaauw; Michiel Souverijn

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ When verifiable performance measures are imperfect, organizations often resort to subjective performance pay. This may give supervisors the power to direct employees towards tasks that mainly benefit the supervisor rather than the organization. We cast a principal-supervisor-agent model in a multitask setting, where the supervisor has an intrinsic preference towards specific tasks. We show that subjective performance pay based on evaluation by a biased supervisor ...

  19. Cognitive Biases and Nonverbal Cue Availability in Detecting Deception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgoon, Judee K.; Blair, J. Pete; Strom, Renee E.

    2008-01-01

    In potentially deceptive situations, people rely on mental shortcuts to help process information. These heuristic judgments are often biased and result in inaccurate assessments of sender veracity. Four such biases--truth bias, visual bias, demeanor bias, and expectancy violation bias--were examined in a judgment experiment that varied nonverbal…

  20. Expert systems: A 5-year perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacAllister, D.J.; Day, R.; McCormack, M.D.

    1996-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of a major integrated oil company's experience with artificial intelligence (AI) over the last 5 years, with an emphasis on expert systems. The authors chronicle the development of an AI group, including details on development tool selection, project selection strategies, potential pitfalls, and descriptions of several completed expert systems. Small expert systems produced by teams of petroleum technology experts and experienced expert system developers that are focused in well-defined technical areas have produced substantial benefits and accelerated petroleum technology transfer

  1. Hybrid expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsoukalas, L.; Ikonomopoulos, A.; Uhrig, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology that couples rule-based expert systems using fuzzy logic, to pre-trained artificial neutral networks (ANN) for the purpose of transient identification in Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In order to provide timely concise, and task-specific information about the may aspects of the transient and to determine the state of the system based on the interpretation of potentially noisy data a model-referenced approach is utilized. In it, the expert system performs the basic interpretation and processing of the model data, and pre-trained ANNs provide the model. having access to a set of neural networks that typify general categories of transients, the rule based system is able to perform identification functions. Membership functions - condensing information about a transient in a form convenient for a rule-based identification system characterizing a transient - are the output of neural computations. This allows the identification function to be performed with a speed comparable to or faster than that of the temporal evolution of the system. Simulator data form major secondary system pipe rupture is used to demonstrate the methodology. The results indicate excellent noise-tolerance for ANN's and suggest a new method for transient identification within the framework of Fuzzy Logic

  2. Expert auditors’ services classification

    OpenAIRE

    Jolanta Wisniewska

    2013-01-01

    The profession of an expert auditor is a public trust occupation with a distinctive feature of taking responsibility for actions in the public interest. The main responsibility of expert auditors is performing financial auditing; however, expert auditors are prepared to carry out different tasks which encompass a wide plethora of financial and auditing services for different kinds of institutions and companies. The aim of the article is first of all the description of expert auditors’ service...

  3. Expansion of a quantum wave packet in a one-dimensional disordered potential in the presence of a uniform bias force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosnier de Bellaistre, C.; Trefzger, C.; Aspect, A.; Georges, A.; Sanchez-Palencia, L.

    2018-01-01

    We study numerically the expansion dynamics of an initially confined quantum wave packet in the presence of a disordered potential and a uniform bias force. For white-noise disorder, we find that the wave packet develops asymmetric algebraic tails for any ratio of the force to the disorder strength. The exponent of the algebraic tails decays smoothly with that ratio and no evidence of a critical behavior on the wave density profile is found. Algebraic localization features a series of critical values of the force-to-disorder strength where the m th position moment of the wave packet diverges. Below the critical value for the m th moment, we find fair agreement between the asymptotic long-time value of the m th moment and the predictions of diagrammatic calculations. Above it, we find that the m th moment grows algebraically in time. For correlated disorder, we find evidence of systematic delocalization, irrespective to the model of disorder. More precisely, we find a two-step dynamics, where both the center-of-mass position and the width of the wave packet show transient localization, similar to the white-noise case, at short time and delocalization at sufficiently long time. This correlation-induced delocalization is interpreted as due to the decrease of the effective de Broglie wavelength, which lowers the effective strength of the disorder in the presence of finite-range correlations.

  4. Grass carp in the Great Lakes region: establishment potential, expert perceptions, and re-evaluation of experimental evidence of ecological impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittmann, Marion E.; Jerde, Christopher L.; Howeth, Jennifer G.; Maher, Sean P.; Deines, Andrew M.; Jenkins, Jill A.; Whitledge, Gregory W.; Burbank, Sarah B.; Chadderton, William L.; Mahon, Andrew R.; Tyson, Jeffrey T.; Gantz, Crysta A.; Keller, Reuben P.; Drake, John M.; Lodge, David M.

    2014-01-01

    Intentional introductions of nonindigenous fishes are increasing globally. While benefits of these introductions are easily quantified, assessments to understand the negative impacts to ecosystems are often difficult, incomplete, or absent. Grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) was originally introduced to the United States as a biocontrol agent, and recent observations of wild, diploid individuals in the Great Lakes basin have spurred interest in re-evaluating its ecological risk. Here, we evaluate the ecological impact of grass carp using expert opinion and a suite of the most up-to-date analytical tools and data (ploidy assessment, eDNA surveillance, species distribution models (SDMs), and meta-analysis). The perceived ecological impact of grass carp by fisheries experts was variable, ranging from unknown to very high. Wild-caught triploid and diploid individuals occurred in multiple Great Lakes waterways, and eDNA surveillance suggests that grass carp are abundant in a major tributary of Lake Michigan. SDMs predicted suitable grass carp climate occurs in all Great Lakes. Meta-analysis showed that grass carp introductions impact both water quality and biota. Novel findings based on updated ecological impact assessment tools indicate that iterative risk assessment of introduced fishes may be warranted.

  5. Expert systems and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beltracchi, L.

    1990-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute have initiated a broad-based exploration of means to evaluate the potential applications of expert systems in the nuclear industry. This exploratory effort will assess the use of expert systems to augment the diagnostic and decision-making capabilities of personnel with the goal of enhancing productivity, reliability, and performance. The initial research effort is the development and documentation of guidelines for verifying and validating (V and V) expert systems. An initial application of expert systems in the nuclear industry is to aid operations and maintenance personnel in decision-making tasks. The scope of the decision aiding covers all types of cognitive behavior consisting of skill, rule, and knowledge-based behavior. For example, procedure trackers were designed and tested to support rule-based behavior. Further, these systems automate many of the tedious, error-prone human monitoring tasks, thereby reducing the potential for human error. The paper version of the procedure contains the knowledge base and the rules and thus serves as the basis of the design verification of the procedure tracker. Person-in-the-loop tests serve as the basis for the validation of a procedure tracker. When conducting validation tests, it is important to ascertain that the human retains the locus of control in the use of the expert system

  6. Expert status and performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A Burgman

    Full Text Available Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.

  7. Effect of top gate potential on bias-stress for dual gate amorphous indium-gallium-zinc-oxide thin film transistor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chun, Minkyu; Um, Jae Gwang; Park, Min Sang; Chowdhury, Md Delwar Hossain; Jang, Jin, E-mail: jjang@khu.ac.kr [Advanced Display Research Center and Department of Information Display, Kyung Hee University, Seoul 02447 (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-07-15

    We report the abnormal behavior of the threshold voltage (V{sub TH}) shift under positive bias Temperature stress (PBTS) and negative bias temperature stress (NBTS) at top/bottom gate in dual gate amorphous indium-gallium-zinc-oxide (a-IGZO) thin-film transistors (TFTs). It is found that the PBTS at top gate shows negative transfer shift and NBTS shows positive transfer shift for both top and bottom gate sweep. The shift of bottom/top gate sweep is dominated by top gate bias (V{sub TG}), while bottom gate bias (V{sub BG}) is less effect than V{sub TG}. The X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) depth profile provides the evidence of In metal diffusion to the top SiO{sub 2}/a-IGZO and also the existence of large amount of In{sup +} under positive top gate bias around top interfaces, thus negative transfer shift is observed. On the other hand, the formation of OH{sup −} at top interfaces under the stress of negative top gate bias shows negative transfer shift. The domination of V{sub TG} both on bottom/top gate sweep after PBTS/NBTS is obviously occurred due to thin active layer.

  8. Bias modification training can alter approach bias and chocolate consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumacher, Sophie E; Kemps, Eva; Tiggemann, Marika

    2016-01-01

    Recent evidence has demonstrated that bias modification training has potential to reduce cognitive biases for attractive targets and affect health behaviours. The present study investigated whether cognitive bias modification training could be applied to reduce approach bias for chocolate and affect subsequent chocolate consumption. A sample of 120 women (18-27 years) were randomly assigned to an approach-chocolate condition or avoid-chocolate condition, in which they were trained to approach or avoid pictorial chocolate stimuli, respectively. Training had the predicted effect on approach bias, such that participants trained to approach chocolate demonstrated an increased approach bias to chocolate stimuli whereas participants trained to avoid such stimuli showed a reduced bias. Further, participants trained to avoid chocolate ate significantly less of a chocolate muffin in a subsequent taste test than participants trained to approach chocolate. Theoretically, results provide support for the dual process model's conceptualisation of consumption as being driven by implicit processes such as approach bias. In practice, approach bias modification may be a useful component of interventions designed to curb the consumption of unhealthy foods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  10. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  11. Expert system application education project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

    1988-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

  12. Expert systems in clinical practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renaud-Salis, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    The first expert systems prototypes intended for advising physicians on diagnosis or therapy selection have been designed more than ten years ago. However, a few of them are already in use in clinical practice after years of research and development efforts. The capabilities of these systems to reason symbolically and to mimic the hypothetico-deductive processes used by physicians distinguishes them from conventional computer programs. Their power comes from their knowledge-base which embeds a large quantity of high-level, specialized knowledge captured from medical experts. Common methods for knowledge representation include production rules and frames. These methods also provide a mean for organizing and structuring the knowledge according to hierarchical or causal links. The best expert-systems perform at the level of the experts. They are easy to learn and use, and can communicate with the user in pseudo-natural language. Moreover they are able to explain their line of reasoning. These capabilities make them potentially useful, usable and acceptable by physicians. However if the problems related to difficulties and costs in building expert-systems are on the way to be solved within the next few years, forensic and ethical issues should have to be addressed before one can envisage their routine use in clinical practice [fr

  13. Expert systems: an alternative paradigm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coombs, M.; Alty, J.

    1984-01-01

    There has recently been a significant effort by the AI community to interest industry in the potential of expert systems. However, this has resulted in far fewer substantial applications projects than might be expected. This article argues that this is because human experts are rarely required to perform the role that computer-based experts are programmed to adopt. Instead of being called in to answer well-defined problems, they are more often asked to assist other experts to extend and refine their understanding of a problem area at the junction of their two domains of knowledge. This more properly involves educational rather than problem-solving skills. An alternative approach to expert system design is proposed based upon guided discovery learning. The user is provided with a supportive environment for a particular class of problem, the system predominantly acting as an adviser rather than directing the interaction. The environment includes a database of domain knowledge, a set of procedures for its application to a concrete problem, and an intelligent machine-based adviser to judge the user's effectiveness and advise on strategy. The procedures focus upon the use of user generated explanations both to promote the application of domain knowledge and to expose understanding difficulties. Simple database PROLOG is being used as the subject material for the prototype system which is known as MINDPAD. 30 references.

  14. Der Patient als Experte.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubs

    1998-01-01

    Patients as Experts: Determining Benefit by Using Assessments of Ability (ICIDH)When health economy and quality mangement are dealing with the cost-benefit relationship, to this day description, calculation, and assessment of the benefit are missing to a great extent. Deliberations in terms of cause and effect do not go beyond the model of pathogenesis (etiology - pathology - manifestation) and descriptions on the organ level (ICD). Only the international classification of impairments, disabilities, and handicaps (ICIDH) as a separate estimation of the resulting manifestations of illness on the levels of organ, individual, and society is capable to elucidate this benefit. It is the patient who is the expert to decide what he needs, what he wants, and what he can do, thus, evaluating on an individual level his loss of capability. The ICIDH is regarded as the key for the management of chronic diseases. The characteristics of being chronically ill require the integration of salutogenesis and the consideration of the hierarchy of needs. The specially developed MARA model serves as pragmatic basis for the description of the benefits of carried out and omitted interventions as changes of abilities by using the MARA curve (mean age-related ability) as ethical guideline. In quality circles the MARA model, which is based on ICIDH, hierarchy of needs and salutogenesis, can offer apatient-oriented basis of discussion for benefit assessments, and, in a pragmatical way, it can facilitate the introduction of evidence-based medicine. By the change of view from the organ level with multifactorial aspects to the individual level, in which the abilities can be understood as a monofactor, a high consensus potential between several participants of discussion in health service is possible.

  15. Application of expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basden, A

    1983-11-01

    This article seeks to bring together a number of issues relevant to the application of expert systems by discussing their advantages and limitations, their roles and benefits, and the influence that real-life applications might have on the design of expert systems software. Part of the expert systems strategy of one major chemical company is outlined. Because it was in constructing one particular expert system that many of these issues became important this system is described briefly at the start of the paper and used to illustrate much of the later discussion. It is of the plausible-inference type and has application in the field of materials engineering. 22 references.

  16. Being an expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brechet, Y.; Musseau, O.; Bruna, G.; Sperandio, M.; Roulleaux-Dugage, M.; Andrieux, S.; Metteau, L.

    2014-01-01

    This series of short articles are dedicated to the role of the expert in the enterprise. There is an important difference between a scientific counsellor and an expert, the expert, recognized by his peers, can speak publicly in his field of expertise but has a duty of transparency while the job of a scientific counsellor requires confidentiality. The making and the use of an expert in an enterprise requires a dedicated organization. The organization of the expertise in 5 enterprises in nuclear industry are considered: CEA (French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission), IRSN (Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety), AREVA, ANDRA (National Radioactive Waste Management Agency) and EDF (Electricity of France)

  17. Toward the Development of Expert Assessment Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasselbring, Ted S.

    1986-01-01

    The potential application of "expert systems" to the diagnosis and assessment of special-needs children is examined and existing prototype systems are reviewed. The future of this artificial intelligence technology is discussed in relation to emerging development tools designed for the creation of expert systems by the lay public. (Author)

  18. Safety Tips from the Expert Witness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Gary R.

    1995-01-01

    Many physical educators and coaches use the potential for liability to guide their decisions about conducting activities. By understanding expert witnesses' roles in negligence actions, surer planning, teaching, and coaching are possible. The paper describes issues that expert witnesses examine in negligence actions against physical educators,…

  19. Potential Biases in the Estimation of the Delay Time in Multivariate Time Series: An application to Climate Data and Functional Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, E.; Davidsen, J.; Complexity Science Group

    2011-12-01

    Measuring cross-correlations is of vital importance to science in general and is a key ingredient in functional networks, which are being widely applied to geophysical systems. A functional network is a collection of nodes (e.g. global positions), and two nodes are connected by a link if their joint behaviour satisfies some criteria. In most cases each node is associated with a time series, and a link is created between two nodes if their time series have a cross-correlation that is deemed significant. However, the spatial distance between nodes and the resolution of the time series, Δ t, can mean that it is unphysical for a signal to propagate from one node to another within a time Δ t. One way to account for this is to measure the cross-correlation at a number of different time lags and use the time delay for which it is a maximum. Here we show that this method is biased for a large class of time series that are common to geophysical systems, namely long-range correlated time series. These are time series which show persistence, for example, a warm day is more likely to be followed by another warm day than a cold one. If one randomly generates two series which each have long-range correlations, the naive assumption is that the maximum cross-correlation between them is equally likely to be found at every time lag. However, the cross-correlation between the series is more likely to be a maximum at the largest and smallest (in this work we allow time lags to be negative) time lags measured. This is a systematic effect which can, and should, be corrected for when judging if a correlation is significant. Whereas the traditional null model is that each time lag is equally likely to give the maximum cross-correlation, our work provides a more correct null model for this class of systems. We apply this to climate data, as well as go on to discuss other potential issues when measuring cross-correlations in this context.

  20. The Distribution of Listeria in Pasture-Raised Broiler Farm Soils Is Potentially Related to University of Vermont Medium Enrichment Bias toward Listeria innocua over Listeria monocytogenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locatelli, Aude; Lewis, Micah A.; Rothrock, Michael J.

    2017-01-01

    over L. monocytogenes. These results indicate that the use of UVM as an enrichment medium may preferentially allow L. innocua to outcompete L. monocytogenes at low concentrations, biasing the Listeria prevalence from these farm samples toward L. innocua and potentially underreporting the presence of L. monocytogenes in these environments. PMID:29312967

  1. The Distribution of Listeria in Pasture-Raised Broiler Farm Soils Is Potentially Related to University of Vermont Medium Enrichment Bias toward Listeria innocua over Listeria monocytogenes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locatelli, Aude; Lewis, Micah A; Rothrock, Michael J

    2017-01-01

    . innocua over L. monocytogenes . These results indicate that the use of UVM as an enrichment medium may preferentially allow L. innocua to outcompete L. monocytogenes at low concentrations, biasing the Listeria prevalence from these farm samples toward L. innocua and potentially underreporting the presence of L. monocytogenes in these environments.

  2. Real time expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asami, Tohru; Hashimoto, Kazuo; Yamamoto, Seiichi

    1992-01-01

    Recently, aiming at the application to the plant control for nuclear reactors and traffic and communication control, the research and the practical use of the expert system suitable to real time processing have become conspicuous. In this report, the condition for the required function to control the object that dynamically changes within a limited time is presented, and the technical difference between the real time expert system developed so as to satisfy it and the expert system of conventional type is explained with the actual examples and from theoretical aspect. The expert system of conventional type has the technical base in the problem-solving equipment originating in STRIPS. The real time expert system is applied to the fields accompanied by surveillance and control, to which conventional expert system is hard to be applied. The requirement for the real time expert system, the example of the real time expert system, and as the techniques of realizing real time processing, the realization of interruption processing, dispersion processing, and the mechanism of maintaining the consistency of knowledge are explained. (K.I.)

  3. Expert systems: An overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verdejo, F.

    1985-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to introduce readers to the basic principles of rule-based expert systems. Four topics are discussed in subsequent sections: (1) Definition; (2) Structure of an expert system; (3) State of the art and (4) Impact and future research. (orig.)

  4. Trendwatch combining expert opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendrix, E.M.T.; Kornelis, M.; Pegge, S.M.; Galen, van M.A.

    2006-01-01

    In this study, focus is on a systematic way to detect future changes in trends that may effect the dynamics in the agro-food sector, and on the combination of opinions of experts. For the combination of expert opinions, the usefulness of multilevel models is investigated. Bayesian data analysis is

  5. Testing for Bias against Female Test Takers of the Graduate Management Admissions Test and Potential Impact on Admissions to Graduate Programs in Business.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Robert E.; Bachrach, Daniel G.

    2003-01-01

    Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT) scores and grade point average in graduate core courses were compared for 190 male and 144 female business administration students. No significant differences in course performance were found, but males had been admitted with significantly higher GMAT scores, suggesting a bias against women. (Contains 27…

  6. Plant species as predictors of soil pH: Replacing expert judgement with measurements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wamelink, G.W.W.; Goedhart, P.W.; Dobben, van H.F.; Berendse, F.

    2005-01-01

    Question: The use of expert-based indicator values to estimate abiotic conditions from vegetation is widespread. However, recent research has shown that expert judgement may contain considerable bias and thereby introduces a large amount of uncertainty. Could expert based indicator values be

  7. Expert Panel Elicitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, M. [Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Waste Management and Environmental Protection; Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    2005-09-15

    Scientists are now frequently in a situation where data cannot be easily assessed, since they may have conflicting or uncertain sources. While expert judgment reflects private choices, it is possible both reduce the personal aspect as well as in crease confidence in the judgments by using formal protocols for choice and elicitation of experts. A full-scale elicitation made on seismicity following glaciation, now in its late phase and presented here in a preliminary form, illustrates the value of the technique and some essential issues in connection with the decision to launch such a project. The results show an unusual low variation between the experts.

  8. Experts on public trial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2007-01-01

    a case study of the May 2003 Danish consensus conference on environmental economics as a policy tool, the article reflects on the politics of expert authority permeating practices of public participation. Adopting concepts from the sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK), the conference is seen......-than-successful defense in the citizen perspective. Further, consensus conferences are viewed alternatively as "expert dissent conferences," serving to disclose a multiplicity of expert commitments. From this perspective, some challenges for democratizing expertise through future exercises in public participation...

  9. Experts' meeting: Maintenance '83

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The brochure presents, in full wording, 20 papers read at the experts' meeting ''Maintenance '83'' in Wiesbaden. Most of the papers discuss reliability data (acquisition, evaluation, processing) of nearly all fields of industry. (RW) [de

  10. Hindsight bias and outcome bias in the social construction of medical negligence: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hugh, Thomas B; Dekker, Sidney W A

    2009-05-01

    Medical negligence has been the subject of much public debate in recent decades. Although the steep increase in the frequency and size of claims against doctors at the end of the last century appears to have plateaued, in Australia at least, medical indemnity costs and consequences are still a matter of concern for doctors, medical defence organisations and governments in most developed countries. Imprecision in the legal definition of negligence opens the possibility that judgments of this issue at several levels may be subject to hindsight and outcome bias. Hindsight bias relates to the probability of an adverse event perceived by a retrospective observer ("I would have known it was going to happen"), while outcome bias is a largely subconscious cognitive distortion produced by the observer's knowledge of the adverse outcome. This review examines the relevant legal, medical, psychological and sociological literature on the operation of these pervasive and universal biases in the retrospective evaluation of adverse events. A finding of medical negligence is essentially an after-the-event social construction and is invariably affected by hindsight bias and knowledge of the adverse outcome. Such biases obviously pose a threat to the fairness of judgments. A number of debiasing strategies have been suggested but are relatively ineffective because of the universality and strength of these biases and the inherent difficulty of concealing from expert witnesses knowledge of the outcome. Education about the effect of the biases is therefore important for lawyers, medical expert witnesses and the judiciary.

  11. Cognitive Bias in Systems Verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Steve

    2012-01-01

    Working definition of cognitive bias: Patterns by which information is sought and interpreted that can lead to systematic errors in decisions. Cognitive bias is used in diverse fields: Economics, Politics, Intelligence, Marketing, to name a few. Attempts to ground cognitive science in physical characteristics of the cognitive apparatus exceed our knowledge. Studies based on correlations; strict cause and effect is difficult to pinpoint. Effects cited in the paper and discussed here have been replicated many times over, and appear sound. Many biases have been described, but it is still unclear whether they are all distinct. There may only be a handful of fundamental biases, which manifest in various ways. Bias can effect system verification in many ways . Overconfidence -> Questionable decisions to deploy. Availability -> Inability to conceive critical tests. Representativeness -> Overinterpretation of results. Positive Test Strategies -> Confirmation bias. Debiasing at individual level very difficult. The potential effect of bias on the verification process can be managed, but not eliminated. Worth considering at key points in the process.

  12. Chapel Hill bisphenol A expert panel consensus statement: Integration of mechanisms, effects in animals and potential to impact human health at current levels of exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    vom Saal, Frederick S.; Akingbemi, Benson T.; Belcher, Scott M.; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Crain, D. Andrew; Eriksen, Marcus; Farabollini, Francesca; Guillette, Louis J.; Hauser, Russ; Heindel, Jerrold J.; Ho, Shuk-Mei; Hunt, Patricia A.; Iguchi, Taisen; Jobling, Susan; Kanno, Jun; Keri, Ruth A.; Knudsen, Karen E.; Laufer, Hans; LeBlanc, Gerald A.; Marcus, Michele; McLachlan, John A.; Myers, John Peterson; Nadal, Angel; Newbold, Retha R.; Olea, Nicolas; Prins, Gail S.; Richter, Catherine A.; Rubin, Beverly S.; Sonnenschein, Carlos; Soto, Ana M.; Talsness, Chris E.; Vandenbergh, John G.; Vanderberg, Laura N.; Walser-Kuntz, Debby R.; Watson, Cheryl S.; Welshons, Wade V.; Wetherill, Yelena; Zoeller, R. Thomas

    2007-01-01

    This document is a summary statement of the outcome from the meeting: “Bisphenol A: An Examination of the Relevance of Ecological, In vitro and Laboratory Animal Studies for Assessing Risks to Human Health” sponsored by both the NIEHS and NIDCR at NIH/DHHS, as well as the US-EPA and Commonweal on the estrogenic environmental chemical bisphenol A (BPA, 2,2-bis(4-hydroxyphenyl)propane; CAS# 80-05-7). The meeting was held in Chapel Hill, NC, 28–30 November 2006 due to concerns about the potential for a relationship between BPA and negative trends in human health that have occurred in recent decades. Examples include increases in abnormal penile/urethra development in males, early sexual maturation in females, an increase in neurobehavioral problems such as attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and autism, an increase in childhood and adult obesity and type 2 diabetes, a regional decrease in sperm count, and an increase in hormonally mediated cancers, such as prostate and breast cancers. Concern has been elevated by published studies reporting a relationship between treatment with “low doses” of BPA and many of theses negative health outcomes in experimental studies in laboratory animals as well as in vitro studies identifying plausible molecular mechanisms that could mediate such effects. Importantly, much evidence suggests that these adverse effects are occurring in animals within the range of exposure to BPA of the typical human living in a developed country, where virtually everyone has measurable blood, tissue and urine levels of BPA that exceed the levels produced by doses used in the “low dose” animal experiments.

  13. Lessons Learned- The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probablistic Seismic Hazard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K.J. Coppersmith; R.C. Perman; R.R. Youngs

    2006-05-10

    Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses provide the opportunity, indeed the requirement, to quantify the uncertainties in important inputs to the analysis. The locations of future earthquakes, their recurrence rates and maximum size, and the ground motions that will result at a site of interest are all quantities that require careful consideration because they are uncertain. The earliest PSHA models [Cornell, 1968] provided solely for the randomness or aleatory variability in these quantities. The most sophisticated seismic hazard models today, which include quantified uncertainties, are merely more realistic representations of this basic aleatory model. All attempts to quantify uncertainties require expert judgment. Further, all uncertainty models should endeavor to consider the range of views of the larger technical community at the time the hazard analysis is conducted. In some cases, especially for large projects under regulatory review, formal structured methods for eliciting expert judgments have been employed. Experience has shown that certain key elements are required for these assessments to be successful, including: (1) experts should be trained in probability theory, uncertainty quantification, and ways to avoid common cognitive biases; (2) comprehensive and user-friendly databases should be provided to the experts; (3) experts should be required to evaluate all potentially credible hypotheses; (4) workshops and other interactions among the experts and proponents of published viewpoints should be encouraged; (5) elicitations are best conducted in individual interview sessions; (6) feedback should be provided to the experts to give them insight into the significance of alternative assessments to the hazard results; and (7) complete documentation should include the technical basis for all assessments. Case histories are given from seismic hazard analyses in Europe, western North America, and the stable continental region of the United States.

  14. Delimitation of the embryonic thermosensitive period for sex determination using an embryo growth model reveals a potential bias for sex ratio prediction in turtles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girondot, Marc; Monsinjon, Jonathan; Guillon, Jean-Michel

    2018-04-01

    The sexual phenotype of the gonad is dependent on incubation temperature in many turtles, all crocodilians, and some lepidosaurians. At hatching, identification of sexual phenotype is impossible without sacrificing the neonates. For this reason, a general method to infer sexual phenotype from incubation temperatures is needed. Temperature influences sex determination during a specific period of the embryonic development, starting when the gonad begins to form. At constant incubation temperatures, this thermosensitive period for sex determination (TSP) is located at the middle third of incubation duration (MTID). When temperature fluctuates, the position of the thermosensitive period for sex determination can be shifted from the MTID because embryo growth is affected by temperature. A method is proposed to locate the thermosensitive period for sex determination based on modelling the embryo growth, allowing its precise identification from a natural regime of temperatures. Results from natural nests and simulations show that the approximation of the thermosensitive period for sex determination to the middle third of incubation duration may create a quasi-systematic bias to lower temperatures when computing the average incubation temperature during this period and thus a male-bias for sex ratio estimate. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Experts correctly describe demography associated with historical decline of the endangered Indiana bat, but not recent period of stationarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Szymanski, Jennifer; Pruitt, Lori; Runge, Michael C.

    2017-01-01

    Demographic characteristics of bats are often insufficiently described for modeling populations. In data poor situations, experts are often relied upon for characterizing ecological systems. In concert with the development of a matrix model describing Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) demography, we elicited estimates for parameterizing this model from 12 experts. We conducted this elicitation in two stages, requesting expert values for 12 demographic rates. These rates were adult and juvenile seasonal (winter, summer, fall) survival rates, pup survival in fall, and propensity and success at breeding. Experts were most in agreement about adult fall survival (3% Coefficient of Variation) and least in agreement about propensity of juveniles to breed (37% CV). The experts showed greater concordance for adult ( mean CV, adult = 6.2%) than for juvenile parameters ( mean CV, juvenile = 16.4%), and slightly more agreement for survival (mean CV, survival = 9.8%) compared to reproductive rates ( mean CV, reproduction = 15.1%). However, survival and reproduction were negatively and positively biased, respectively, relative to a stationary dynamic. Despite the species exhibiting near stationary dynamics for two decades prior to the onset of a potential extinction-causing agent, white-nose syndrome, expert estimates indicated a population decline of -11% per year (95% CI = -2%, -20%); quasi-extinction was predicted within a century ( mean = 61 years to QE, range = 32, 97) by 10 of the 12 experts. Were we to use these expert estimates in our modeling efforts, we would have errantly trained our models to a rapidly declining demography asymptomatic of recent demographic behavior. While experts are sometimes the only source of information, a clear understanding of the temporal and spatial context of the information being elicited is necessary to guard against wayward predictions.

  16. Biased limiter experiments on text

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, P.E.; Wootton, A.J.; Rowan, W.L.; Ritz, C.P.; Rhodes, T.L.; Bengtson, R.D.; Hodge, W.L.; Durst, R.D.; McCool, S.C.; Richards, B.; Gentle, K.W.; Schoch, P.; Forster, J.C.; Hickok, R.L.; Evans, T.E.

    1987-01-01

    Experiments using an electrically biased limiter have been performed on the Texas Experimental Tokamak (TEXT). A small movable limiter is inserted past the main poloidal ring limiter (which is electrically connected to the vacuum vessel) and biased at V Lim with respect to it. The floating potential, plasma potential and shear layer position can be controlled. With vertical strokeV Lim vertical stroke ≥ 50 V the plasma density increases. For V Lim Lim > 0 the results obtained are inconclusive. Variation of V Lim changes the electrostatic turbulence which may explain the observed total flux changes. (orig.)

  17. Waste disposal experts meet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1959-01-15

    Problems connected with the disposal into the sea of radioactive wastes from peaceful uses of atomic energy are being examined by a panel of experts, convened by the International Atomic Energy Agency. These experts from eight different countries held a first meeting at IAEA headquarters in Vienna from 4-9 December 1958, under the chairmanship of Dr. Harry Brynielsson, Director General of the Swedish Atomic Energy Company. The countries represented are: Canada, Czechoslovakia, France, Japan, Netherlands, United Kingdom and United States. The group will meet again in 1959. (author)

  18. Adaptive capture of expert knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barrett, C.L.; Jones, R.D. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Hand, Un Kyong [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)]|[US Navy (United States)

    1995-05-01

    A method is introduced that can directly acquire knowledge-engineered, rule-based logic in an adaptive network. This adaptive representation of the rule system can then replace the rule system in simulated intelligent agents and thereby permit further performance-based adaptation of the rule system. The approach described provides both weight-fitting network adaptation and potentially powerful rule mutation and selection mechanisms. Nonlinear terms are generated implicitly in the mutation process through the emergent interaction of multiple linear terms. By this method it is possible to acquire nonlinear relations that exist in the training data without addition of hidden layers or imposition of explicit nonlinear terms in the network. We smoothed and captured a set of expert rules with an adaptive network. The motivation for this was to (1) realize a speed advantage over traditional rule-based simulations; (2) have variability in the intelligent objects not possible by rule-based systems but provided by adaptive systems: and (3) maintain the understandability of rule-based simulations. A set of binary rules was smoothed and converted into a simple set of arithmetic statements, where continuous, non-binary rules are permitted. A neural network, called the expert network, was developed to capture this rule set, which it was able to do with zero error. The expert network is also capable of learning a nonmonotonic term without a hidden layer. The trained network in feedforward operation is fast running, compact, and traceable to the rule base.

  19. Price competition between an expert and a non-expert

    OpenAIRE

    Bouckaert, J.M.C.; Degryse, H.A.

    1998-01-01

    This paper characterizes price competition between an expert and a non-expert. In contrast with the expert, the non-expert’s repair technology is not always successful. Consumers visit the expert after experiencing an unsuccessful match at the non-expert. This re-entry affects the behaviour of both sellers. For low enough probability of successful repair at the non-expert, all consumers first visit the non-expert, and a ‘timid-pricing’ equilibrium results. If the non-expert’s repair technolog...

  20. Combination of biased forecasts: Bias correction or bias based weights?

    OpenAIRE

    Wenzel, Thomas

    1999-01-01

    Most of the literature on combination of forecasts deals with the assumption of unbiased individual forecasts. Here, we consider the case of biased forecasts and discuss two different combination techniques resulting in an unbiased forecast. On the one hand we correct the individual forecasts, and on the other we calculate bias based weights. A simulation study gives some insight in the situations where we should use the different methods.

  1. Expert Systems Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duda, Richard O.; Shortliffe, Edward H.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses a class of artificial intelligence computer programs (often called "expert systems" because they address problems normally thought to require human specialists for their solution) intended to serve as consultants for decision making. Also discusses accomplishments (including information systematization in medical diagnosis and…

  2. Computers Simulate Human Experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Steven K.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses recent progress in artificial intelligence in such narrowly defined areas as medical and electronic diagnosis. Also discusses use of expert systems, man-machine communication problems, novel programing environments (including comments on LISP and LISP machines), and types of knowledge used (factual, heuristic, and meta-knowledge). (JN)

  3. Expert Cold Structure Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, T.; Demuysere, P.

    2011-05-01

    The EXPERT Program is funded by ESA. The objective of the EXPERT mission is to perform a sub-orbital flight during which measurements of critical aero- thermodynamic phenomena will be obtained by using state-of-the-art instrumentation. As part of the EXPERT Flight Segment, the responsibility of the Cold Structure Development Design, Manufacturing and Validation was committed to the Belgian industrial team SONACA/SABCA. The EXPERT Cold Structure includes the Launcher Adapter, the Bottom Panel, the Upper Panel, two Cross Panels and the Parachute Bay. An additional Launcher Adapter was manufactured for the separation tests. The selected assembly definition and manufacturing technologies ( machined parts and sandwich panels) were dictated classically by the mass and stiffness, but also by the CoG location and the sensitive separation interface. Used as support for the various on-board equipment, the Cold Structure is fixed to but thermally uncoupled from the PM 1000 thermal shield. It is protect on its bottom panel by a thermal blanket. As it is a protoflight, analysis was the main tool for the verification. Low level stiffness and modal analysis tests have also been performed on the Cold Structure equipped with its ballast. It allowed to complete its qualification and to prepare SONACA/SABCA support for the system dynamic tests foreseen in 2011. The structure was finally coated with a thermal control black painting and delivered on time to Thales Alenia Space-Italy end of March 201.

  4. Expert opinion on climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordhaus, W.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the results of an indepth interview survey of experts, both social and natural scientists, about estimates of the economic impact of potential greenhouse warming. The range of estimate impacts was enormous as was the difference between disciplines, particularly mainstream economists and natural scientists. The nineteen survey participants and their affiliations are listed. The general areas discussed in the paper include the following: survey development; estimation of subjective probabilities; description of different scenarios presented; discussion of pertinent answers and general trends in answers including influence of point of view; magnitude of problem; ecosystems; secondary effects; ability to adapt; regional distribution of impacts; nonmarket effects; limits to understanding. 7 figs

  5. Consumer versus expert hazard identification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagemann, Kit S.; Scholderer, Joachim

    2007-01-01

    Novel foods have been the object of intense public debate in recent years. Despite efforts to communicate the outcomes of risk assessments to consumers, public confidence in the management of potential risks has been low. Various reasons behind this have been identified, chiefly a disagreement...... between technical experts and consumers over the nature of the hazards on which risk assessments should focus, and perceptions of insufficient openness about uncertainties in risk assessment. Whilst previous research has almost exclusively focused on genetically modified foods, the present paper...

  6. Potential self-selection bias in a nested case-control study on indoor environmental factors and their association with asthma and allergic symptoms among pre-school children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bornehag, Carl-Gustaf; Sundell, Jan; Sigsgaard, T.

    2006-01-01

    , including health, building characteristics of the home, and socioeconomic factors between participating and non-participating families in a nested case-control study on asthma and allergy among children. Information was collected in a baseline questionnaire to the parents of 14,077 children aged 1-6 years...... in a first step. In a second step 2,156 of the children were invited to participate in a case-control study. Of these, 198 cases and 202 controls were finally selected. For identifying potential selection bias, information concerning all invited families in the case-control study was obtained from...

  7. Benefits of being biased!

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Administrator

    Journal of Genetics, Vol. 83, No. 2, August 2004. Keywords. codon bias; alcohol dehydrogenase; Darwinian ... RESEARCH COMMENTARY. Benefits of being biased! SUTIRTH DEY*. Evolutionary Biology Laboratory, Evolutionary & Organismal Biology Unit,. Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research,.

  8. Expert PLSQL Practices

    CERN Document Server

    Beresniewicz, John

    2011-01-01

    Expert PL/SQL Practices is a book of collected wisdom on PL/SQL programming from some of the best and the brightest in the field. Each chapter is a deep-dive into a specific problem, technology, or feature set that you'll face as a PL/SQL programmer. Each author has chosen their topic out of the strong belief that what they share can make a positive difference in the quality and scalability of code that you write. The path to mastery begins with syntax and the mechanics of writing statements to make things happen. If you've reached that point with PL/SQL, then let the authors of Expert PL/SQL

  9. Bioethics for Technical Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Shigetaka

    Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

  10. Expert tool use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Kathrine Liedtke; Ravn, Susanne

    2017-01-01

    on a case study of elite rope skipping, we argue that the phenomenological concept of incorporation does not suffice to adequately describe how expert tool users feel when interacting with their tools. By analyzing a combination of insights gained from participant observation of 11 elite rope skippers......According to some phenomenologists, a tool can be experienced as incorporated when, as a result of habitual use or deliberate practice, someone is able to manipulate it without conscious effort. In this article, we specifically focus on the experience of expertise tool use in elite sport. Based...... and autoethnographic material from one former elite skipper, we take some initial steps toward the development of a more nuanced understanding of the concept of incorporation; one that is able to accommodate the experiences of expert tool users. In sum, our analyses indicate that the possibility for experiencing...

  11. Negativity Bias in Dangerous Drivers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Chai

    Full Text Available The behavioral and cognitive characteristics of dangerous drivers differ significantly from those of safe drivers. However, differences in emotional information processing have seldom been investigated. Previous studies have revealed that drivers with higher anger/anxiety trait scores are more likely to be involved in crashes and that individuals with higher anger traits exhibit stronger negativity biases when processing emotions compared with control groups. However, researchers have not explored the relationship between emotional information processing and driving behavior. In this study, we examined the emotional information processing differences between dangerous drivers and safe drivers. Thirty-eight non-professional drivers were divided into two groups according to the penalty points that they had accrued for traffic violations: 15 drivers with 6 or more points were included in the dangerous driver group, and 23 drivers with 3 or fewer points were included in the safe driver group. The emotional Stroop task was used to measure negativity biases, and both behavioral and electroencephalograph data were recorded. The behavioral results revealed stronger negativity biases in the dangerous drivers than in the safe drivers. The bias score was correlated with self-reported dangerous driving behavior. Drivers with strong negativity biases reported having been involved in mores crashes compared with the less-biased drivers. The event-related potentials (ERPs revealed that the dangerous drivers exhibited reduced P3 components when responding to negative stimuli, suggesting decreased inhibitory control of information that is task-irrelevant but emotionally salient. The influence of negativity bias provides one possible explanation of the effects of individual differences on dangerous driving behavior and traffic crashes.

  12. Good practices for quantitative bias analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lash, Timothy L; Fox, Matthew P; MacLehose, Richard F; Maldonado, George; McCandless, Lawrence C; Greenland, Sander

    2014-12-01

    more widespread use of bias analysis to estimate the potential magnitude and direction of biases, as well as the uncertainty in estimates potentially influenced by the biases. © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  13. Expert Oracle Exadata

    CERN Document Server

    Johnson, Randy

    2011-01-01

    Throughout history, advances in technology have come in spurts. A single great idea can often spur rapid change as the idea takes hold and is propagated, often in totally unexpected directions. Exadata embodies such a change in how we think about and manage relational databases. The key change lies in the concept of offloading SQL processing to the storage layer. That concept is a huge win, and its implementation in the form of Exadata is truly a game changer. Expert Oracle Exadata will give you a look under the covers at how the combination of hardware and software that comprise Exadata actua

  14. The naked experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, B.

    1982-01-01

    In an article critical of experts, the cases argued for and against nuclear power are discussed under the headings: environmental hazards arising from the nuclear fuel cycle; proliferation of nuclear weapons capabilities via expansion of the nuclear power industry; political and social threats and restraints of a nuclear society (terrorism, reduction in civil liberties, centralised political and economic power); economic and employment disadvantages of nuclear power; impact of uranium mining on (Australian) aboriginal culture; inadequacy of nuclear power as a solution to energy problems; advantages of a 'soft energy path' based around conservation and renewable energy technologies. (U.K.)

  15. Interwell Radiative Recombination in the Presence of Random Potential Fluctuations in GaAs/AlGaAs Biased Double Quantum Wells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Timofeev, V.B.; Larionov, A.V.; Ioselevich, A.S.

    1999-01-01

    The interwell luminescence (PL) of spatially separated e-h pairs exhibits systematic narrowing with temperature increase which are explained in terms of lateral thermo-activated tunneling of e-h pairs localized by random potential fluctuations (RPF). At critical temperatures the quasi-equilibrium......The interwell luminescence (PL) of spatially separated e-h pairs exhibits systematic narrowing with temperature increase which are explained in terms of lateral thermo-activated tunneling of e-h pairs localized by random potential fluctuations (RPF). At critical temperatures the quasi......-equilibrium of carriers, undergoes an abrupt transition. This occurs with significant redistribution of the electrical field inside the structure and give rise to a low frequency noice appearing in the luminescence. Below critical temperature the new steady state results in the accumulation of 2DEG in one of the well....

  16. [Deontology of the medical expert].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raszeja, S

    1995-09-01

    The authority of prosecuting organ to choose the expert, set his task and verify the following opinion is defined. The qualities of the medical expert and his duties are described, referring to: -his expertise; -his morality; -his ability to issue an independent (objective) opinion. Detailed rules, which can be ascribed to a specific medical expert's deontological code, are listed and explained.

  17. CPI Bias in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chul Chung

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available We estimate the CPI bias in Korea by employing the approach of Engel’s Law as suggested by Hamilton (2001. This paper is the first attempt to estimate the bias using Korean panel data, Korean Labor and Income Panel Study(KLIPS. Following Hamilton’s model with non­linear specification correction, our estimation result shows that the cumulative CPI bias over the sample period (2000-2005 was 0.7 percent annually. This CPI bias implies that about 21 percent of the inflation rate during the period can be attributed to the bias. In light of purchasing power parity, we provide an interpretation of the estimated bias.

  18. Comprehensive embryo testing. Experts' opinions regarding future directions: an expert panel study on comprehensive embryo testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hens, Kristien; Dondorp, Wybo J; Geraedts, Joep P M; de Wert, Guido M

    2013-05-01

    What do scientists in the field of preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) and preimplantation genetic screening (PGS) consider to be the future direction of comprehensive embryo testing? Although there are many biological and technical limitations, as well as uncertainties regarding the meaning of genetic variation, comprehensive embryo testing will impact the IVF/PGD practice and a timely ethical reflection is needed. Comprehensive testing using microarrays is currently being introduced in the context of PGD and PGS, and it is to be expected that whole-genome sequencing will also follow. Current ethical and empirical sociological research on embryo testing focuses on PGD as it is practiced now. However, empirical research and systematic reflection regarding the impact of comprehensive techniques for embryo testing is missing. In order to understand the potential of this technology and to be able to adequately foresee its implications, we held an expert panel with seven pioneers in PGD. We conducted an expert panel in October 2011 with seven PGD pioneers from Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany and the UK. Participants expected the use of comprehensive techniques in the context of PGD. However, the introduction of these techniques in embryo testing requires timely ethical reflection as it involves a shift from choosing an embryo without a particular genetic disease (i.e. PGD) or most likely to result in a successful pregnancy (i.e. PGS) to choosing the best embryo based on a much wider set of criteria. Such ethical reflection should take account of current technical and biological limitations and also of current uncertainties with regard to the meaning of genetic variance. However, ethicists should also not be afraid to look into the future. There was a general agreement that embryo testing will be increasingly preceded by comprehensive preconception screening, thus enabling smart combinations of genetic testing. The group was composed of seven participants from

  19. Information order and outcome framing: an assesment of judgment bias in a naturalistic decision-making context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrin, B M; Barnett, B J; Walrath, L; Grossman, J D

    2001-01-01

    Findings that decision makers can come to different conclusions depending on the order in which they receive information have been termed the "information order bias." When trained, experienced individuals exhibit similar behaviors; however, it has been argued that this result is not a bias, but rather, a pattern-matching process. This study provides a critical examination of this claim. It also assesses both experts' susceptibility to an outcome framing bias and the effects of varying task loads on judgment. Using a simulation of state-of-the-art ship defensive systems operated by experienced, active-duty U.S. Navy officers, we found no evidence of a framing bias, while task load had a minor, but systematic effect. The order in which information was received had a significant impact, with the effect being consistent with a judgment bias. Nonetheless, we note that pattern-matching processes, similar to those that produce inferential and reconstructive effects on memory, could also explain our results. Actual or potential applications of this research include decision support system interfaces or training programs that might be developed to reduce judgment bias.

  20. Generation of future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment by applying bias-correction techniques, delta-change approaches and stochastic Weather Generators at different spatial scale. Analysis of their influence on basic and drought statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio

    2017-04-01

    Assessing impacts of potential future climate change scenarios in precipitation and temperature is essential to design adaptive strategies in water resources systems. The objective of this work is to analyze the possibilities of different statistical downscaling methods to generate future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment from historical data and the available climate models simulations performed in the frame of the CORDEX EU project. The initial information employed to define these downscaling approaches are the historical climatic data (taken from the Spain02 project for the period 1971-2000 with a spatial resolution of 12.5 Km) and the future series provided by climatic models in the horizon period 2071-2100 . We have used information coming from nine climate model simulations (obtained from five different Regional climate models (RCM) nested to four different Global Climate Models (GCM)) from the European CORDEX project. In our application we have focused on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For each RCM we have generated future climate series for the period 2071-2100 by applying two different approaches, bias correction and delta change, and five different transformation techniques (first moment correction, first and second moment correction, regression functions, quantile mapping using distribution derived transformation and quantile mapping using empirical quantiles) for both of them. Ensembles of the obtained series were proposed to obtain more representative potential future climate scenarios to be employed to study potential impacts. In this work we propose a non-equifeaseble combination of the future series giving more weight to those coming from models (delta change approaches) or combination of models and techniques that provides better approximation to the basic

  1. Minimising bias in the forensic evaluation of suspicious paediatric injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skellern, Catherine

    2015-08-01

    In the rules of evidence in all legal jurisdictions, medical experts are required to maintain objectivity when providing opinions. When interpreting medical evidence, doctors must recognise, acknowledge and manage uncertainties to ensure their evidence is reliable to legal decision-makers. Even in the forensic sciences such as DNA analysis, implicit bias has been shown to influence how results are interpreted from cognitive and contextual biases unconsciously operating. In cases involving allegations of child abuse there has been significant exposure in the media, popular magazines, legal journals and in the published medical literature debating the reliability of medical evidence given in these proceedings. In these cases judges have historically been critical of experts they perceived had sacrificed objectivity for advocacy by having an investment in a 'side'. This paper firstly discusses the issue of bias then describes types of cognitive biases identified from psychological research applied to forensic evidence including adversarial bias, context bias, confirmation bias and explains how terminology can influence the communication of opinion. It follows with previously published guidelines of how to reduce the risk of bias compromising objectivity in forensic practices then concludes with my own recommendations of practices that can be used by child protection paediatricians and within an organisation when conducting forensic evaluations of suspicious childhood injury to improve objectivity in formulation of opinion evidence. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. A guide on the elicitation of expert knowledge in constructing BBN for quantitative reliability assessment of safety critical software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, H. S.; Kang, H. G.; Chang, S. C.; Ha, J. J.

    2003-08-01

    This report describes the methodology which could elicit probabilistic representation from the experts' knowledge or qualitative data. It is necessary to elicit expert's knowledge while we quantitatively assess the reliability of safety critical software using Bayesian Belief Nets(BBNs). Especially in composing the node probability table and in making out the input data for BBN model, experts' qualitative judgment or qualitative data should be converted into probabilistic representation. This conversion process is vulnerable to bias or error. The purpose of the report is to provide the guideline to avoid the occurrence of this kinds of bias/error or to eliminate them which is included in the existing data prepared by experts. The contents of the report are: o The types and the explanation of bias and error The types of bias and error which might be occur in the process of eliciting the expert's knowledge. o The procedure of expert's judgment elicitation. The process and techniques to avoid bias and error in eliciting the expert's judgments. o The examples of expert's knowledge appeared in the BBNs The examples of expert's knowledge (probability values) appeared in the BBNs for assessing the safety of digital system

  3. Sampler bias -- Phase 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, R.J.

    1995-01-01

    This documents Phase 1 determinations on sampler induced bias for four sampler types used in tank characterization. Each sampler, grab sampler or bottle-on-a-string, auger sampler, sludge sampler and universal sampler, is briefly discussed and their physical limits noted. Phase 2 of this document will define additional testing and analysis to further define Sampler Bias

  4. Photovoltaic Bias Generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-02-01

    Department of the Army position unless so designated by other authorized documents. Citation of manufacturer’s or trade names does not constitute an... Interior view of the photovoltaic bias generator showing wrapped-wire side of circuit board...3 Fig. 4 Interior view of the photovoltaic bias generator showing component side of circuit board

  5. Biases in categorization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Das-Smaal, E.A.

    1990-01-01

    On what grounds can we conclude that an act of categorization is biased? In this chapter, it is contended that in the absence of objective norms of what categories actually are, biases in categorization can only be specified in relation to theoretical understandings of categorization. Therefore, the

  6. The Management and Security Expert (MASE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Mark D.; Barr, Stanley J.; Gryphon, Coranth D.; Keegan, Jeff; Kniker, Catherine A.; Krolak, Patrick D.

    1991-01-01

    The Management and Security Expert (MASE) is a distributed expert system that monitors the operating systems and applications of a network. It is capable of gleaning the information provided by the different operating systems in order to optimize hardware and software performance; recognize potential hardware and/or software failure, and either repair the problem before it becomes an emergency, or notify the systems manager of the problem; and monitor applications and known security holes for indications of an intruder or virus. MASE can eradicate much of the guess work of system management.

  7. Approximate Bias Correction in Econometrics

    OpenAIRE

    James G. MacKinnon; Anthony A. Smith Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses ways to reduce the bias of consistent estimators that are biased in finite samples. It is necessary that the bias function, which relates parameter values to bias, should be estimable by computer simulation or by some other method. If so, bias can be reduced or, in some cases that may not be unrealistic, even eliminated. In general, several evaluations of the bias function will be required to do this. Unfortunately, reducing bias may increase the variance, or even the mea...

  8. Methodology toward second generation expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dormoy, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    So-called First Generation Expert Systems were aimed at capturing the expert's know-how. Though providing remarkable achievements, this first wave did not give the expected outcome. A new generation is getting out from the laboratories. Instead of remaining at a shallow level of knowledge - that is the unmotivated reasoning processes expressed by an expert when he is forced to tell them - one attempts to re-build this level of knowledge from the first principles which constitute the basis of an expert's knowledge. These systems are called deep knowledge-based, or second generation expert systems. Discussion in the three first parts rests on two examples: A first generation and a half system for process control in nuclear powers plants, than the system EXTRA for alarm processing in nuclear plants, wherein fonctional knowledge is explicitely represented. We show how deep knowledge can be implemented, and the advantages that can be expected from this methodology. Qualitative Physics is discussed in the next part. Future research developments as well as potential payoffs are mentioned [fr

  9. Subject de-biasing of data sets: A Bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pate-Cornell, M.E.

    1994-01-01

    In this paper, the authors examine the relevance of data sets (for instance, of past incidents) for risk management decisions when there are reasons to believe that all types of incidents have not been reported at the same rate. Their objective is to infer from the data reports what actually happened in order to assess the potential benefits of different safety measures. The authors use a simple Bayesian model to correct (de-bias) the data sets given the nonreport rates, which are assessed (subjectively) by experts and encoded as the probabilities of reports given different characteristics of the events of interest. They compute a probability distribution for the past number of events given the past number of reports. They illustrate the method by the cases of two data sets: incidents in anesthesia in Australia, and oil spills in the Gulf of Mexico. In the first case, the de-biasing allows correcting for the fact that some types of incidents, such as technical malfunctions, are more likely to be reported when they occur than anesthetist mistakes. In the second case, the authors have to account for the fact that the rates of oil spill reports indifferent incident categories have increased over the years, perhaps at the same time as the rates of incidents themselves

  10. Expert system in PNC, 5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tobita, Yoshimasa; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Matsumoto, Mitsuo; Ono, Kiyoshi.

    1990-01-01

    The computer code system which can evaluate the mass balance and cycle cost in nuclear fuel cycle has been developing a PNC using an artificial intelligence technique. This system is composed of the expert system, data base and analysis codes. The expert system is the most important one in the system and the content of the expert system is explained in this paper. The expert system has the three functions. The first is the function of understanding the meaning of user's questions by natural language, the second is the function of selecting the best way to solve the problem given by the user using the knowledge which is already installed in the system, and the last is the function of answering the questions. The knowledge of the experts installed in the expert system is represented by the frame-type rules. Therefore, the knowledge will be simply added to the system, and consequently the system will be easily extended. (author)

  11. Placebo effect studies are susceptible to response bias and to other types of biases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hróbjartsson, Asbjørn; Kaptchuk, Ted J; Miller, Franklin G

    2011-01-01

    Investigations of the effect of placebo are often challenging to conduct and interpret. The history of placebo shows that assessment of its clinical significance has a real potential to be biased. We analyze and discuss typical types of bias in studies on placebo....

  12. Surgical experts: born or made?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadideen, Hazim; Alvand, Abtin; Saadeddin, Munir; Kneebone, Roger

    2013-01-01

    The concept of surgical expertise and the processes involved in its development are topical, and there is a constant drive to identify reliable measures of expert performance in surgery. This review explores the notion of whether surgical experts are "born" or "made", with reference to educational theory and pertinent literature. Peer-reviewed publications, books, and online resources on surgical education, expertise and training were reviewed. Important themes and aspects of expertise acquisition were identified in order to better understand the concept of a surgical expert. The definition of surgical expertise and several important aspects of its development are highlighted. Innate talent plays an important role, but is insufficient on its own to produce a surgical expert. Multiple theories that explore motor skill acquisition and memory are relevant, and Ericsson's theory of the development of competence followed by deliberate self-practice has been especially influential. Psychomotor and non-technical skills are necessary for progression in the current climate in light of our training curricula; surgical experts are adaptive experts who excel in these. The literature suggests that surgical expertise is reached through practice; surgical experts are made, not born. A deeper understanding of the nature of expert performance and its development will ensure that surgical education training programmes are of the highest possible quality. Surgical educators should aim to develop an expertise-based approach, with expert performance as the benchmark. Copyright © 2013 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

  14. Expert Systems as Tools for Technical Communicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grider, Daryl A.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses expertise, what an expert system is, what an expert system shell is, what expert systems can and cannot do, knowledge engineering and technical communicators, and planning and managing expert system projects. (SR)

  15. Mapping on complex neutrosophic soft expert sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Quran, Ashraf; Hassan, Nasruddin

    2018-04-01

    We introduce the mapping on complex neutrosophic soft expert sets. Further, we investigated the basic operations and other related properties of complex neutrosophic soft expert image and complex neutrosophic soft expert inverse image of complex neutrosophic soft expert sets.

  16. System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mieg, Harald A.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

  17. Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

    1992-01-01

    Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

  18. Expert systems for real-time monitoring and fault diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, S. J.; Caglayan, A. K.

    1989-01-01

    Methods for building real-time onboard expert systems were investigated, and the use of expert systems technology was demonstrated in improving the performance of current real-time onboard monitoring and fault diagnosis applications. The potential applications of the proposed research include an expert system environment allowing the integration of expert systems into conventional time-critical application solutions, a grammar for describing the discrete event behavior of monitoring and fault diagnosis systems, and their applications to new real-time hardware fault diagnosis and monitoring systems for aircraft.

  19. Plutonium - the ultrapoison? An expert's opinion about an expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoll, W.; Becker, K.

    1989-01-01

    In an expert opinion written by Professor H. Kuni, Marburg, for the North Rhine-Westphalian state government, plutonium is called by far the most dangerous element in the Periodic Table. The Marburg medical expert holds that even improved legal instruments are unable to warrant effective protection of the workers handling this material, in the light of the present standards of industrial safety, because of radiological conditions and measuring problems with plutonium isotopes. In this article by an internationally renowned expert in the field, the ideas expressed in the expert opinion about the toxicity of plutonium, the cause-and-effect relationship in radiation damage by plutonium, and recent findings about the toxicity are subjected to a critical review. On the basis of results of radiation protection and of case studies, the statements in the expert opinion are contrasted with facts which make them appear in a very different light. (orig./RB) [de

  20. Bias aware Kalman filters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Drecourt, J.-P.; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2006-01-01

    This paper reviews two different approaches that have been proposed to tackle the problems of model bias with the Kalman filter: the use of a colored noise model and the implementation of a separate bias filter. Both filters are implemented with and without feedback of the bias into the model state....... The colored noise filter formulation is extended to correct both time correlated and uncorrelated model error components. A more stable version of the separate filter without feedback is presented. The filters are implemented in an ensemble framework using Latin hypercube sampling. The techniques...... are illustrated on a simple one-dimensional groundwater problem. The results show that the presented filters outperform the standard Kalman filter and that the implementations with bias feedback work in more general conditions than the implementations without feedback. 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  1. Biases in casino betting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Sundali

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available We examine two departures of individual perceptions of randomness from probability theory: the hot hand and the gambler's fallacy, and their respective opposites. This paper's first contribution is to use data from the field (individuals playing roulette in a casino to demonstrate the existence and impact of these biases that have been previously documented in the lab. Decisions in the field are consistent with biased beliefs, although we observe significant individual heterogeneity in the population. A second contribution is to separately identify these biases within a given individual, then to examine their within-person correlation. We find a positive and significant correlation across individuals between hot hand and gambler's fallacy biases, suggesting a common (root cause of the two related errors. We speculate as to the source of this correlation (locus of control, and suggest future research which could test this speculation.

  2. Introduction to Unconscious Bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmelz, Joan T.

    2010-05-01

    We all have biases, and we are (for the most part) unaware of them. In general, men and women BOTH unconsciously devalue the contributions of women. This can have a detrimental effect on grant proposals, job applications, and performance reviews. Sociology is way ahead of astronomy in these studies. When evaluating identical application packages, male and female University psychology professors preferred 2:1 to hire "Brian” over "Karen” as an assistant professor. When evaluating a more experienced record (at the point of promotion to tenure), reservations were expressed four times more often when the name was female. This unconscious bias has a repeated negative effect on Karen's career. This talk will introduce the concept of unconscious bias and also give recommendations on how to address it using an example for a faculty search committee. The process of eliminating unconscious bias begins with awareness, then moves to policy and practice, and ends with accountability.

  3. Australia's Bond Home Bias

    OpenAIRE

    Anil V. Mishra; Umaru B. Conteh

    2014-01-01

    This paper constructs the float adjusted measure of home bias and explores the determinants of bond home bias by employing the International Monetary Fund's high quality dataset (2001 to 2009) on cross-border bond investment. The paper finds that Australian investors' prefer investing in countries with higher economic development and more developed bond markets. Exchange rate volatility appears to be an impediment for cross-border bond investment. Investors prefer investing in countries with ...

  4. When experts disagree

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olde, de Evelien M.; Moller, Henrik; Marchand, Fleur; McDowell, Richard W.; MacLeod, Catriona J.; Sautier, Marion; Halloy, Stephan; Barber, Andrew; Benge, Jayson; Bockstaller, Christian; Bokkers, E.A.M.; Boer, de Imke J.M.; Legun, Katharine A.; Quellec, Le Isabelle; Merfield, Charles; Oudshoorn, Frank W.; Reid, John; Schader, Christian; Szymanski, Erika; Sørensen, Claus A.G.; Whitehead, Jay; Manhire, Jon

    2017-01-01

    Sustainability indicators are well recognized for their potential to assess and monitor sustainable development of agricultural systems. A large number of indicators are proposed in various sustainability assessment frameworks, which raises concerns regarding the validity of approaches, usefulness

  5. Law for nuclear experts only

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagner, H [Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.)

    1980-02-01

    The Federal Ministry of the Interior is preparing an ordinance on expert consultants under the Atomic Energy Act which, among other topics, is to include legal norms for the criteria to be met by experts in terms of non-partisanship, training, capabilities, technical equipment and cooperation in expert organizations of members of various scientific and technical disciplines. A summary of general criteria relating to the qualification, selection and status of experts called in by the legislative and executive branches and by courts of law, which could be organized as a series of guidelines without any original qualities of legal norms, could be recommended in view of the increasing quantitative and qualitative importance of experts. However, passing an ordinance merely fixing and putting into concrete terms the image of an 'expert under the Atomic Energy Act' is intolerable, because the status of scientific and technical experts by far extends beyond the field of nuclear law in our industrial society characterized by a far reaching division of labor. Weak points in the organization of expert services are not confined to technology or nuclear power. Separate rules establishing legal norms are not convincing also for reasons of technology policy and legal policy as well as for those of social psychology and practice.

  6. Expert Systems in Reference Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roysdon, Christine, Ed.; White, Howard D., Ed.

    1989-01-01

    Eleven articles introduce expert systems applications in library and information science, and present design and implementation issues of system development for reference services. Topics covered include knowledge based systems, prototype development, the use of artificial intelligence to remedy current system inadequacies, and an expert system to…

  7. Artificial Intelligence: The Expert Way.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitter, Gary G.

    1989-01-01

    Discussion of artificial intelligence (AI) and expert systems focuses on their use in education. Characteristics of good expert systems are explained; computer software programs that contain applications of AI are described, highlighting one used to help educators identify learning-disabled students; and the future of AI is discussed. (LRW)

  8. Reflection group on 'Expert Culture'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eggermont, G.

    2000-01-01

    As part of SCK-CEN's social sciences and humanities programme, a reflection group on 'Expert Culture' was established. The objectives of the reflection group are: (1) to clarify the role of SCK-CEN experts; (2) to clarify the new role of expertise in the evolving context of risk society; (3) to confront external views and internal SCK-CEN experiences on expert culture; (4) to improve trust building of experts and credibility of SCK-CEN as a nuclear actor in society; (5) to develop a draft for a deontological code; (6) to integrate the approach in training on assertivity and communication; (7) to create an output for a topical day on the subject of expert culture. The programme, achievements and perspectives of the refection group are summarised

  9. Biases in GNSS-Data Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaer, S. C.; Dach, R.; Lutz, S.; Meindl, M.; Beutler, G.

    2010-12-01

    Within the Global Positioning System (GPS) traditionally different types of pseudo-range measurements (P-code, C/A-code) are available on the first frequency that are tracked by the receivers with different technologies. For that reason, P1-C1 and P1-P2 Differential Code Biases (DCB) need to be considered in a GPS data processing with a mix of different receiver types. Since the Block IIR-M series of GPS satellites also provide C/A-code on the second frequency, P2-C2 DCB need to be added to the list of biases for maintenance. Potential quarter-cycle biases between different phase observables (specifically L2P and L2C) are another issue. When combining GNSS (currently GPS and GLONASS), careful consideration of inter-system biases (ISB) is indispensable, in particular when an adequate combination of individual GLONASS clock correction results from different sources (using, e.g., different software packages) is intended. Facing the GPS and GLONASS modernization programs and the upcoming GNSS, like the European Galileo and the Chinese Compass, an increasing number of types of biases is expected. The Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) is monitoring these GPS and GLONASS related biases for a long time based on RINEX files of the tracking network of the International GNSS Service (IGS) and in the frame of the data processing as one of the global analysis centers of the IGS. Within the presentation we give an overview on the stability of the biases based on the monitoring. Biases derived from different sources are compared. Finally, we give an outlook on the potential handling of such biases with the big variety of signals and systems expected in the future.

  10. EXPERT SYSTEMS - DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE TOOL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NAN Anca-Petruţa

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Because of the fact that specialty agricultural assistance is not always available when the farmers need it, we identified expert systems as a strong instrument with an extended potential in agriculture. This started to grow in scale recently, including all socially-economic activity fields, having the role of collecting data regarding different aspects from human experts with the purpose of assisting the user in the necessary steps for solving problems, at the performance level of the expert, making his acquired knowledge and experience available. We opted for a general presentation of the expert systems as well as their necessity, because, the solution to develop the agricultural system can come from artificial intelligence by implementing the expert systems in the field of agricultural insurance, promoting existing insurance products, farmers finding options in depending on their necessities and possibilities. The objective of this article consists of collecting data about different aspects about specific areas of interest of agricultural insurance, preparing the database, a conceptual presentation of a pilot version which will become constantly richer depending on the answers received from agricultural producers, with the clearest exposure of knowledgebase possible. We can justify picking this theme with the fact that even while agricultural insurance plays a very important role in agricultural development, the registered result got from them are modest, reason why solutions need to be found in the scope of developing the agricultural sector. The importance of this consists in the proposal of an immediate viable solution to correspond with the current necessities of agricultural producers and in the proposal of an innovative solution, namely the implementation of expert system in agricultural insurance as a way of promoting insurance products. Our research, even though it treats the subject at an conceptual level, it wants to undertake an

  11. An expert system based software sizing tool, phase 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlander, David

    1990-01-01

    A software tool was developed for predicting the size of a future computer program at an early stage in its development. The system is intended to enable a user who is not expert in Software Engineering to estimate software size in lines of source code with an accuracy similar to that of an expert, based on the program's functional specifications. The project was planned as a knowledge based system with a field prototype as the goal of Phase 2 and a commercial system planned for Phase 3. The researchers used techniques from Artificial Intelligence and knowledge from human experts and existing software from NASA's COSMIC database. They devised a classification scheme for the software specifications, and a small set of generic software components that represent complexity and apply to large classes of programs. The specifications are converted to generic components by a set of rules and the generic components are input to a nonlinear sizing function which makes the final prediction. The system developed for this project predicted code sizes from the database with a bias factor of 1.06 and a fluctuation factor of 1.77, an accuracy similar to that of human experts but without their significant optimistic bias.

  12. An empirical study on memory bias situations and correction strategies in ERP effort estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Erasmus, I.P.; Daneva, Maia; Amrahamsson, Pekka; Corral, Luis; Olivo, Markku; Russo, Barbara

    2016-01-01

    An Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) project estimation process often relies on experts of various backgrounds to contribute judgments based on their professional experience. Such expert judgments however may not be biasfree. De-biasing techniques therefore have been proposed in the software

  13. Opinion dynamics with confirmation bias.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armen E Allahverdyan

    Full Text Available Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical research of this phenomenon has mainly focused on its economic implications possibly missing its potential connections with broader notions of cognitive science.We formulate a (non-Bayesian model for revising subjective probabilistic opinion of a confirmationally-biased agent in the light of a persuasive opinion. The revision rule ensures that the agent does not react to persuasion that is either far from his current opinion or coincides with it. We demonstrate that the model accounts for the basic phenomenology of the social judgment theory, and allows to study various phenomena such as cognitive dissonance and boomerang effect. The model also displays the order of presentation effect-when consecutively exposed to two opinions, the preference is given to the last opinion (recency or the first opinion (primacy -and relates recency to confirmation bias. Finally, we study the model in the case of repeated persuasion and analyze its convergence properties.The standard Bayesian approach to probabilistic opinion revision is inadequate for describing the observed phenomenology of persuasion process. The simple non-Bayesian model proposed here does agree with this phenomenology and is capable of reproducing a spectrum of effects observed in psychology: primacy-recency phenomenon, boomerang effect and cognitive dissonance. We point out several limitations of the model that should motivate its future development.

  14. Simulating publication bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paldam, Martin

    is censoring: selection by the size of estimate; SR3 selects the optimal combination of fit and size; and SR4 selects the first satisficing result. The last four SRs are steered by priors and result in bias. The MST and the FAT-PET have been developed for detection and correction of such bias. The simulations......Economic research typically runs J regressions for each selected for publication – it is often selected as the ‘best’ of the regressions. The paper examines five possible meanings of the word ‘best’: SR0 is ideal selection with no bias; SR1 is polishing: selection by statistical fit; SR2...... are made by data variation, while the model is the same. It appears that SR0 generates narrow funnels much at odds with observed funnels, while the other four funnels look more realistic. SR1 to SR4 give the mean a substantial bias that confirms the prior causing the bias. The FAT-PET MRA works well...

  15. Expert software for accident identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobnikar, M.; Nemec, T.; Muehleisen, A.

    2003-01-01

    Each type of an accident in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) causes immediately after the start of the accident variations of physical parameters that are typical for that type of the accident thus enabling its identification. Examples of these parameter are: decrease of reactor coolant system pressure, increase of radiation level in the containment, increase of pressure in the containment. An expert software enabling a fast preliminary identification of the type of the accident in Krsko NPP has been developed. As input data selected typical parameters from Emergency Response Data System (ERDS) of the Krsko NPP are used. Based on these parameters the expert software identifies the type of the accident and also provides the user with appropriate references (past analyses and other documentation of such an accident). The expert software is to be used as a support tool by an expert team that forms in case of an emergency at Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) with the task to determine the cause of the accident, its most probable scenario and the source term. The expert software should provide initial identification of the event, while the final one is still to be made after appropriate assessment of the event by the expert group considering possibility of non-typical events, multiple causes, initial conditions, influences of operators' actions etc. The expert software can be also used as an educational/training tool and even as a simple database of available accident analyses. (author)

  16. The Risk of a Halo Bias as a Reason to Keep Students Anonymous during Grading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malouff, John M.; Emmerton, Ashley J.; Schutte, Nicola S.

    2013-01-01

    Experts have advocated anonymous grading as a means of eliminating actual or perceived evaluator bias in subjective student assessment. The utility of anonymity in assessment rests on whether information derived from student identity can unduly influence evaluation. The halo effect provides a conceptual background for why a bias might occur. In…

  17. Intelligent programs-expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gledhill, V X

    1982-01-01

    In recent years, computer scientists have developed what are called expert systems. These programs have three fundamental components: a knowledge base, which changes with experience; an inference engine which enables the program to make decisions; and an interface that allows the program to communicate with the person using the system. Expert systems have been developed successfully in areas such as medical diagnosis, geology, and computer maintenance. This paper describes the evolution and basic principles of expert systems and give some examples of their use.

  18. Measuring Agricultural Bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Henning Tarp; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    The measurement issue is the key issue in the literature on trade policy-induced agri-cultural price incentive bias. This paper introduces a general equilibrium effective rate of protection (GE-ERP) measure, which extends and generalizes earlier partial equilibrium nominal protection measures...... shares and intersectoral linkages - are crucial for determining the sign and magnitude of trade policy bias. The GE-ERP measure is therefore uniquely suited to capture the full impact of trade policies on agricultural price incentives. A Monte Carlo procedure confirms that the results are robust....... For the 15 sample countries, the results indicate that the agricultural price incentive bias, which was generally perceived to exist during the 1980s, was largely eliminated during the 1990s. The results also demonstrate that general equilibrium effects and country-specific characteristics - including trade...

  19. Use of expert systems in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uhrig, R.E.

    1989-01-01

    The application of technologies, particularly expert systems, to the control room activities in a nuclear power plant has the potential to reduce operator error and increase plant safety, reliability, and efficiency. Furthermore, there are a large number of nonoperating activities (testing, routine maintenance, outage planning, equipment diagnostics, and fuel management) in which expert systems can increase the efficiency and effectiveness of overall plant and corporate operations. This document presents a number of potential applications of expert systems in the nuclear power field. 36 refs., 2 tabs

  20. Cognitive bias in symptomatic and recovered agoraphobics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoler, L S; McNally, R J

    1991-01-01

    Symptomatic agoraphobics, recovered agoraphobics, and normal control subjects completed a series of sentence stems that had either ambiguous or unambiguous meanings, and had either a potentially threatening or a nonthreatening connotation. The written completions made by subjects to these stems were classified as indicating either a biased (i.e. threat-related) or unbiased interpretation of the meaning of the stem, and if a biased interpretation was made, whether the subject indicated efforts at adaptive coping with the perceived threat. Results indicated that symptomatic agoraphobics exhibited strong biases for interpreting information as threatening, relative to normal control subjects. Moreover, recovered agoraphobics resembled symptomatic agoraphobics more than normal control subjects, thus indicating that cognitive biases may persist following cessation of panic attacks and reductions in avoidance behavior. However, recovered agoraphobics also exhibited tendencies to cope adaptively with perceived threats whereas symptomatic agoraphobics did not.

  1. Recent Advances in Attention Bias Modification for Substance Addictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melvyn Weibin Zhang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Research on attentional bias modification has increased since 2014. A recent meta-analysis demonstrates evidence for bias modification for substance disorders, including alcohol and tobacco use disorders. Several pharmacological trials have shown that pharmacological agents can attenuate and modify such attentional bias. The pharmacological trials that have appeared to date have produced mixed results, which has clinical implications. Developments in Internet and mobile technologies have transformed how attention bias modification is currently being achieved. There remains great potential for further research that examines the efficacy of technology-aided attention bias interventions.

  2. Expert robots in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

    1987-01-01

    Expert robots enhance a safety and operations in nuclear plants. E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligence, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

  3. Expert Systems: An Introduction -46 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Research Scientist in the. Knowledge Based. Computer Systems Group at NeST. He is one of the ... Expert systems encode human expertise in limited domains ... answers questions the user has and provides an explanation of its reasoning.

  4. Introducing Managers to Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finlay, Paul N.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Describes a short course to expose managers to expert systems, consisting of (1) introductory lecture; (2) supervised computer tutorial; (3) lecture and discussion about knowledge structuring and modeling; and (4) small group work on a case study using computers. (SK)

  5. Expert system in PNC, 6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsubota, Koji

    1990-01-01

    The application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a tool for mineral exploration started only a decade ago. The systems that have been reported are in the most cases the expert systems that can simulate the decision of the experts or help numerical calculation for more reasonable and/or fast decision making. PNC started the development of the expert system for uranium exploration in 1983. Since then, KOGITO, a expert system to find the favorability of the target area, has been developed. Two years ago, the second generation development, Intelligent Research Environment and Support System, IRESS was initiated aiming at the establishment of a total support system for a project evaluation. We will review our effort for development of our system and introduce the application of the Data directed Numerical method as a new tool to Ahnemland area in Australia. (author)

  6. Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides an overview Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System water quality modeling and decision support system designed for environmental impact assessment of mixing zones resulting from wastewater discharge from point sources

  7. Robust Trust in Expert Testimony

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Dahlman

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The standard of proof in criminal trials should require that the evidence presented by the prosecution is robust. This requirement of robustness says that it must be unlikely that additional information would change the probability that the defendant is guilty. Robustness is difficult for a judge to estimate, as it requires the judge to assess the possible effect of information that the he or she does not have. This article is concerned with expert witnesses and proposes a method for reviewing the robustness of expert testimony. According to the proposed method, the robustness of expert testimony is estimated with regard to competence, motivation, external strength, internal strength and relevance. The danger of trusting non-robust expert testimony is illustrated with an analysis of the Thomas Quick Case, a Swedish legal scandal where a patient at a mental institution was wrongfully convicted for eight murders.

  8. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

  9. Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Harold O.; Burford, Anna Marie

    1990-01-01

    Delineates artificial intelligence/expert systems (AI/ES) concepts; provides an exposition of some business application areas; relates progress; and creates an awareness of the benefits, limitations, and reservations of AI/ES. (Author)

  10. Expert systems in clinical microbiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-07-01

    This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the "big three": Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically.

  11. Expert robots in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

    1987-01-01

    Expert robots will enhance safety and operations in nuclear plants. E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligent, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

  12. Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Yvette B.; Mccall, Kurt E.

    1992-01-01

    The Nickel Cadmium Battery Expert System-2, or 'NICBES-2', which was used by the NASA HST six-battery testbed, was subsequently converted into the Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System, or 'NICHES'. Accounts are presently given of this conversion process and future uses being contemplated for NICHES. NICHES will calculate orbital summary data at the end of each orbit, and store these files for trend analyses and rules-generation.

  13. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years sp...

  14. Experts in science and society

    CERN Document Server

    Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2004-01-01

    In today's complex world, we have come to rely increasingly on those who have expertise in specific areas and can bring their knowledge to bear on crucial social, political and scientific questions. Taking the viewpoint that experts are consulted when there is something important at stake for an individual, a group, or society at large, Experts in Science and Society explores expertise as a relational concept. How do experts balance their commitment to science with that to society? How does a society actually determine that a person has expertise? What personal traits are valued in an expert? From where does the expert derive authority? What makes new forms of expertise emerge? These and related questions are addressed from a wide range of areas in order to be inclusive, as well as to demonstrate similarities across areas. Likewise, in order to be culturally comparative, this volume includes examples and discussions of experts in different countries and even in different time periods. The topics include the r...

  15. Counselor Expert System | Debretsion | Zede Journal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An expert system plays an important role on alleviating primarily shortage of experts in a specific area of interest. With the help of an expert system, personnel with little expertise can solve problems that require expert knowledge. In this paper all major aspects of an expert system development have been presented.

  16. Measuring agricultural policy bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Henning Tarp; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    2010-01-01

    Measurement is a key issue in the literature on price incentive bias induced by trade policy. We introduce a general equilibrium measure of the relative effective rate of protection, which generalizes earlier protection measures. For our fifteen sample countries, results indicate that the agricul...

  17. Expert judgment and uncertainty regarding the protection of imperiled species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heeren, Alexander; Karns, Gabriel; Bruskotter, Jeremy; Toman, Eric; Wilson, Robyn; Szarek, Harmony

    2017-06-01

    Decisions concerning the appropriate listing status of species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) can be controversial even among conservationists. These decisions may determine whether a species persists in the near term and have long-lasting social and political ramifications. Given the ESA's mandate that such decisions be based on the best available science, it is important to examine what factors contribute to experts' judgments concerning the listing of species. We examined how a variety of factors (such as risk perception, value orientations, and norms) influenced experts' judgments concerning the appropriate listing status of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Experts were invited to complete an online survey examining their perceptions of the threats grizzly bears face and their listing recommendation. Although experts' assessments of the threats to this species were strongly correlated with their recommendations for listing status, this relationship did not exist when other cognitive factors were included in the model. Specifically, values related to human use of wildlife and norms (i.e., a respondent's expectation of peers' assessments) were most influential in listing status recommendations. These results suggest that experts' decisions about listing, like all human decisions, are subject to the use of heuristics (i.e., decision shortcuts). An understanding of how heuristics and related biases affect decisions under uncertainty can help inform decision making about threatened and endangered species and may be useful in designing effective processes for protection of imperiled species. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  18. Attention bias modification training under working memory load increases the magnitude of change in attentional bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Patrick J F; Branson, Sonya; Chen, Nigel T M; Van Bockstaele, Bram; Salemink, Elske; MacLeod, Colin; Notebaert, Lies

    2017-12-01

    Attention bias modification (ABM) procedures have shown promise as a therapeutic intervention, however current ABM procedures have proven inconsistent in their ability to reliably achieve the requisite change in attentional bias needed to produce emotional benefits. This highlights the need to better understand the precise task conditions that facilitate the intended change in attention bias in order to realise the therapeutic potential of ABM procedures. Based on the observation that change in attentional bias occurs largely outside conscious awareness, the aim of the current study was to determine if an ABM procedure delivered under conditions likely to preclude explicit awareness of the experimental contingency, via the addition of a working memory load, would contribute to greater change in attentional bias. Bias change was assessed among 122 participants in response to one of four ABM tasks given by the two experimental factors of ABM training procedure delivered either with or without working memory load, and training direction of either attend-negative or avoid-negative. Findings revealed that avoid-negative ABM procedure under working memory load resulted in significantly greater reductions in attentional bias compared to the equivalent no-load condition. The current findings will require replication with clinical samples to determine the utility of the current task for achieving emotional benefits. These present findings are consistent with the position that the addition of a working memory load may facilitate change in attentional bias in response to an ABM training procedure. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Toward a synthesis of cognitive biases: how noisy information processing can bias human decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbert, Martin

    2012-03-01

    A single coherent framework is proposed to synthesize long-standing research on 8 seemingly unrelated cognitive decision-making biases. During the past 6 decades, hundreds of empirical studies have resulted in a variety of rules of thumb that specify how humans systematically deviate from what is normatively expected from their decisions. Several complementary generative mechanisms have been proposed to explain those cognitive biases. Here it is suggested that (at least) 8 of these empirically detected decision-making biases can be produced by simply assuming noisy deviations in the memory-based information processes that convert objective evidence (observations) into subjective estimates (decisions). An integrative framework is presented to show how similar noise-based mechanisms can lead to conservatism, the Bayesian likelihood bias, illusory correlations, biased self-other placement, subadditivity, exaggerated expectation, the confidence bias, and the hard-easy effect. Analytical tools from information theory are used to explore the nature and limitations that characterize such information processes for binary and multiary decision-making exercises. The ensuing synthesis offers formal mathematical definitions of the biases and their underlying generative mechanism, which permits a consolidated analysis of how they are related. This synthesis contributes to the larger goal of creating a coherent picture that explains the relations among the myriad of seemingly unrelated biases and their potential psychological generative mechanisms. Limitations and research questions are discussed.

  20. Inductive acquisition of expert knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muggleton, S.H.

    1986-01-01

    Expert systems divide neatly into two categories: those in which (1) the expert decisions result in changes to some external environment (control systems), and (2) the expert decisions merely seek to describe the environment (classification systems). Both the explanation of computer-based reasoning and the bottleneck (Feigenbaum, 1979) of knowledge acquisition are major issues in expert-systems research. The author contributed to these areas of research in two ways: 1. He implemented an expert-system shell, the Mugol environment, which facilitates knowledge acquisition by inductive inference and provides automatic explanation of run-time reasoning on demand. RuleMaster, a commercial version of this environment, was used to advantage industrially in the construction and testing of two large classification systems. 2. He investigated a new techniques called 'sequence induction' that can be used in construction of control systems. Sequence induction is based on theoretical work in grammatical learning. He improved existing grammatical learning algorithms as well as suggesting and theoretically characterizing new ones. These algorithms were successfully applied to acquisition of knowledge for a diverse set of control systems, including inductive construction of robot plans and chess end-gam strategies.

  1. Awareness and minimisation of systematic bias in research.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Malone, Helen

    2014-03-01

    A major goal of nursing and midwifery is the delivery of evidence-based practice. Consequently, it is essential for the quality and safety of patient\\/client care that policy makers, educators and practitioners are aware of the presence of potential systematic bias in research practice and research publications so that only sound evidence translates into practice. The main aim of this paper is to highlight the need for ongoing awareness of the potential presence of systematic bias in research practice, to explore commonly reported types of systematic bias and to report some methods that can be applied to minimise systematic bias in research.

  2. Tools and technologies for expert systems: A human factors perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajaram, Navaratna S.

    1987-01-01

    It is widely recognized that technologies based on artificial intelligence (AI), especially expert systems, can make significant contributions to the productivity and effectiveness of operations of information and knowledge intensive organizations such as NASA. At the same time, these being relatively new technologies, there is the problem of transfering technology to key personnel of such organizations. The problems of examining the potential of expert systems and of technology transfer is addressed in the context of human factors applications. One of the topics of interest was the investigation of the potential use of expert system building tools, particularly NEXPERT as a technology transfer medium. Two basic conclusions were reached in this regard. First, NEXPERT is an excellent tool for rapid prototyping of experimental expert systems, but not ideal as a delivery vehicle. Therefore, it is not a substitute for general purpose system implementation languages such a LISP or C. This assertion probably holds for nearly all such tools on the market today. Second, an effective technology transfer mechanism is to formulate and implement expert systems for problems which members of the organization in question can relate to. For this purpose, the LIghting EnGineering Expert (LIEGE) was implemented using NEXPERT as the tool for technology transfer and to illustrate the value of expert systems to the activities of the Man-System Division.

  3. Expert judgment for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Young Sung; Lee, Sun Ho; Lee, Byong Whi

    2000-01-01

    Public perception on nuclear energy is much influenced by subjective impressions mostly formed through sensational and dramatic news of mass media or anti-nuclear groups. However, nuclear experts, those who have more relevant knowledge and information about nuclear energy, may have reasonable opinion based on scientific facts or inferences. Thus their opinion and consensus should be examined and taken into account during the process of nuclear energy policy formulation. For the purpose of eliciting experts' opinion, the web-based on-line survey system (eBOSS) was developed. Using the survey system, experts' views on nuclear energy were tallied, analyzed and compared with the public's. Based on the survey results, the paper suggests some recommendations about the future direction of the public information program in Korea

  4. A Phenomenology of Expert Musicianship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høffding, Simon

    This dissertation develops a phenomenology of expert musicianship through an interdisciplinary approach that integrates qualitative interviews with the Danish String Quartet with philosophical analyses drawing on ideas and theses found in phenomenology, philosophy of mind, cognitive science...... and psychology of music. The dissertation is structured through the asking, analyzing and answering of three primary questions, namely: 1) What is it like to be an expert? 2) What is the general phenomenology of expert musicianship? 3) What happens to the self in deep musical absorption? The first question...... targets a central debate in philosophy and psychology on whether reflection is conducive for, or detrimental to, skillful performance. My analyses show that the concepts assumed in the literature on this question are poorly defined and gloss over more important features of expertise. The second question...

  5. Expert systems as decision tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, C.K.

    1989-01-01

    The feasibility of using expert systems as an aid in regulatory compliance functions has been investigated. A literature review was carried out to identify applications of expert systems to regulatory affairs. A bibliography of the small literature on such applications was prepared. A prototype system, ARIES, was developed to demonstrate the use of an expert system as an aid to a Project Officer in assuring compliance with licence requirements. The system runs on a personal computer with a graphical interface. Extensive use is made of hypertext to link interrelated rules and requirements as well as to provide an explanation facility. Based on the performance of ARIES the development of a field version is recommended

  6. Topics in expert system design methodologies and tools

    CERN Document Server

    Tasso, C

    1989-01-01

    Expert Systems are so far the most promising achievement of artificial intelligence research. Decision making, planning, design, control, supervision and diagnosis are areas where they are showing great potential. However, the establishment of expert system technology and its actual industrial impact are still limited by the lack of a sound, general and reliable design and construction methodology.This book has a dual purpose: to offer concrete guidelines and tools to the designers of expert systems, and to promote basic and applied research on methodologies and tools. It is a coordinated coll

  7. Biases in Visual, Auditory, and Audiovisual Perception of Space.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Odegaard

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Localization of objects and events in the environment is critical for survival, as many perceptual and motor tasks rely on estimation of spatial location. Therefore, it seems reasonable to assume that spatial localizations should generally be accurate. Curiously, some previous studies have reported biases in visual and auditory localizations, but these studies have used small sample sizes and the results have been mixed. Therefore, it is not clear (1 if the reported biases in localization responses are real (or due to outliers, sampling bias, or other factors, and (2 whether these putative biases reflect a bias in sensory representations of space or a priori expectations (which may be due to the experimental setup, instructions, or distribution of stimuli. Here, to address these questions, a dataset of unprecedented size (obtained from 384 observers was analyzed to examine presence, direction, and magnitude of sensory biases, and quantitative computational modeling was used to probe the underlying mechanism(s driving these effects. Data revealed that, on average, observers were biased towards the center when localizing visual stimuli, and biased towards the periphery when localizing auditory stimuli. Moreover, quantitative analysis using a Bayesian Causal Inference framework suggests that while pre-existing spatial biases for central locations exert some influence, biases in the sensory representations of both visual and auditory space are necessary to fully explain the behavioral data. How are these opposing visual and auditory biases reconciled in conditions in which both auditory and visual stimuli are produced by a single event? Potentially, the bias in one modality could dominate, or the biases could interact/cancel out. The data revealed that when integration occurred in these conditions, the visual bias dominated, but the magnitude of this bias was reduced compared to unisensory conditions. Therefore, multisensory integration not only

  8. Biases in Visual, Auditory, and Audiovisual Perception of Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odegaard, Brian; Wozny, David R.; Shams, Ladan

    2015-01-01

    Localization of objects and events in the environment is critical for survival, as many perceptual and motor tasks rely on estimation of spatial location. Therefore, it seems reasonable to assume that spatial localizations should generally be accurate. Curiously, some previous studies have reported biases in visual and auditory localizations, but these studies have used small sample sizes and the results have been mixed. Therefore, it is not clear (1) if the reported biases in localization responses are real (or due to outliers, sampling bias, or other factors), and (2) whether these putative biases reflect a bias in sensory representations of space or a priori expectations (which may be due to the experimental setup, instructions, or distribution of stimuli). Here, to address these questions, a dataset of unprecedented size (obtained from 384 observers) was analyzed to examine presence, direction, and magnitude of sensory biases, and quantitative computational modeling was used to probe the underlying mechanism(s) driving these effects. Data revealed that, on average, observers were biased towards the center when localizing visual stimuli, and biased towards the periphery when localizing auditory stimuli. Moreover, quantitative analysis using a Bayesian Causal Inference framework suggests that while pre-existing spatial biases for central locations exert some influence, biases in the sensory representations of both visual and auditory space are necessary to fully explain the behavioral data. How are these opposing visual and auditory biases reconciled in conditions in which both auditory and visual stimuli are produced by a single event? Potentially, the bias in one modality could dominate, or the biases could interact/cancel out. The data revealed that when integration occurred in these conditions, the visual bias dominated, but the magnitude of this bias was reduced compared to unisensory conditions. Therefore, multisensory integration not only improves the

  9. Estimation bias and bias correction in reduced rank autoregressions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Heino Bohn

    2017-01-01

    This paper characterizes the finite-sample bias of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in a reduced rank vector autoregression and suggests two simulation-based bias corrections. One is a simple bootstrap implementation that approximates the bias at the MLE. The other is an iterative root...

  10. Fuzzy Expert System for Heart Attack Diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Norlida; Arbaiy, Nureize; Shah, Noor Aziyan Ahmad; Afizah Afif@Afip, Zehan

    2017-08-01

    Heart attack is one of the serious illnesses and reported as the main killer disease. Early prevention is significant to reduce the risk of having the disease. The prevention efforts can be strengthen through awareness and education about risk factor and healthy lifestyle. Therefore the knowledge dissemination is needed to play role in order to distribute and educate public in health care management and disease prevention. Since the knowledge dissemination in medical is important, there is a need to develop a knowledge based system that can emulate human intelligence to assist decision making process. Thereby, this study utilized hybrid artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to develop a Fuzzy Expert System for Diagnosing Heart Attack Disease (HAD). This system integrates fuzzy logic with expert system, which helps the medical practitioner and people to predict the risk and as well as diagnosing heart attack based on given symptom. The development of HAD is expected not only providing expert knowledge but potentially become one of learning resources to help citizens to develop awareness about heart-healthy lifestyle.

  11. The UK system of recognising qualified experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bines, W.

    2002-01-01

    EURATOM Basic Safety Standards (BSS) Directives have long included requirements for the involvement of qualified experts, the definition of which has scarcely changed since at least 1976. The Directive requirement, in the definition of qualified expert,, for competent authorities to recognise the capacity to act as a qualified expert has been interpreted by Member States in widely differing ways, ranging from the minimalist or case by case to the highly detailed and prescriptive. In the United Kingdom (UK), the qualified expert for occupational radiation protection is the radiation protection adviser and the competent authority is the Health and Safety Executive (HSE). The Ionising Radiations Regulations 1985, which largely implemented the 1980 BSS Directive, required an employer to appoint one or more radiation protection advisers for the purpose of advising him as to the observance of these Regulations and other health and safety matters in connection with ionising radiation. The Regulations addressed the question of recognition by forbidding an employer to appoint a person as a radiation protection adviser unless: that person was suitably qualified and experienced; the employer had notified the Health and Safety Executive in writing of the intended appointment at least 28 days in advance, giving the name of the person and particulars of his qualifications and experience and the scope of the advice he would be required to give; and the employer had received from HSE an acknowledgement in writing of the notification. This system allowed HSE to follow up and query any apparently unsuitable potential appointments while applying a light overall administrative touch. The Approved Code of Practice supporting the Regulations included advice on the qualifications, experience and qualities that the employer should look for in a suitable radiation protection adviser

  12. Decision-making behavior of experts at nuclear power plants. Regulatory focus influence on cognitive heuristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, Johannes

    2015-09-01

    The goal of this research project was to examine factors, on the basis of regulatory focus theory and the heuristics and biases approach, that influence decision-making processes of experts at nuclear power plants. Findings show that this group applies anchoring (heuristic) when evaluating conjunctive and disjunctive events and that they maintain a constant regulatory focus characteristic. No influence of the experts' characteristic regulatory focus on cognitive heuristics could be established. Theoretical and practical consequences on decision-making behavior of experts are presented. Finally, a method for measuring the use of heuristics especially in the nuclear industry is discussed.

  13. QUEST: Quality of Expert Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perre, M.

    1991-01-01

    TNO Physics and Electronics laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Limburg and the Research Institute for Knowledge Systems, worked on a technology project named 'QUEST: Quality of Expert Systems' [FEL90]. QUEST was carried out under commision of the Dutch Ministry of Defence. A strong

  14. Expert Systems: An Introduction -46 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    C++, and Microsoft C/C++ compilers. The personal edition is licensed for educational, research, and hobby use. Applications created with RT -Expert personal edition are not licensed for commercial purposes. Professional editions are available for commercial applications using DOS, Windows, and. Unix environments.

  15. Expert systems for superalloy studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

    1990-01-01

    There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

  16. Teen Experts Guide Makerspace Makeover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    A makerspace is a place where makers can envision a project, find an expert, and create something. Libraries have always held programming during which patrons were able to come in and create. The makerspace at the Lamar Middle School in Flower Mound, Texas, is available for students every day, so that they can daily create and play with innovative…

  17. Expert incentives: cure versus prevention

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jaegher, K.

    This paper distinguishes between two scenarios for the expert-client encounter. In the cure scenario, the client does not know whether a loss can be recovered. In the prevention scenario, the client faces a threat but does not know whether this threat is real enough to justify preventive action. The

  18. The role of the expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smeesters, P.

    1998-01-01

    The expert's role in the involvement in decisions on nuclear risks is discussed. The responsibility of scientists in ethics and in several sociological problems is highlighted. The mandates, the positivist reaction, way to knowledge, the scientist as a subject studying an object, and application in the domain of radioprotection are the main issues of the somewhat philosophical essay. (R.P.)

  19. Partners for development: Expert assistant in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daud, A.H.

    1996-01-01

    This report reviews the expert assignments received by Malaysia under the TC programme over the 1980-95 time period. It provides data about the type of assignments and expert services, the institutions receiving the experts, and duration of the assignment. Also reviewed is the process of requesting and implementing an expert assignment in Malaysia, as well as the country's related objectives and plans

  20. Social reward shapes attentional biases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Brian A

    2016-01-01

    Paying attention to stimuli that predict a reward outcome is important for an organism to survive and thrive. When visual stimuli are associated with tangible, extrinsic rewards such as money or food, these stimuli acquire high attentional priority and come to automatically capture attention. In humans and other primates, however, many behaviors are not motivated directly by such extrinsic rewards, but rather by the social feedback that results from performing those behaviors. In the present study, I examine whether positive social feedback can similarly influence attentional bias. The results show that stimuli previously associated with a high probability of positive social feedback elicit value-driven attentional capture, much like stimuli associated with extrinsic rewards. Unlike with extrinsic rewards, however, such stimuli also influence task-specific motivation. My findings offer a potential mechanism by which social reward shapes the information that we prioritize when perceiving the world around us.

  1. Christiano’s Deliberative Expertism and Choice Architecture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Ivanković

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article explores Thomas Christiano’s account of the moral division of labor in democracy. Christiano’s incorporation of experts serves the purpose of alleviating the epistemic burdens of ordinary citizens in the decision-making process and decreasing the amount of work they would otherwise be required to take on in a modern democracy. The gist of my contribution to the debate is assessing whether Christiano’s account successfully tackles the issues brought about by cognitive biases that people suffer from in communicating their values in decision-making. I argue that Christiano’s notion of experts needs to be extended to choice architects, who possess the knowledge on methods for influencing choice. I also claim that choice architecture is a social fact that an informed deliberative democratic theory needs to deal with.

  2. Affective Biases in Humans and Animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, E S J; Roiser, J P

    Depression is one of the most common but poorly understood psychiatric conditions. Although drug treatments and psychological therapies are effective in some patients, many do not achieve full remission and some patients receive no apparent benefit. Developing new improved treatments requires a better understanding of the aetiology of symptoms and evaluation of novel therapeutic targets in pre-clinical studies. Recent developments in our understanding of the basic cognitive processes that may contribute to the development of depression and its treatment offer new opportunities for both clinical and pre-clinical research. This chapter discusses the clinical evidence supporting a cognitive neuropsychological model of depression and antidepressant efficacy, and how this information may be usefully translated to pre-clinical investigation. Studies using neuropsychological tests in depressed patients and at risk populations have revealed basic negative emotional biases and disrupted reward and punishment processing, which may also impact on non-affective cognition. These affective biases are sensitive to antidepressant treatments with early onset effects observed, suggesting an important role in recovery. This clinical work into affective biases has also facilitated back-translation to animals and the development of assays to study affective biases in rodents. These animal studies suggest that, similar to humans, rodents in putative negative affective states exhibit negative affective biases on decision-making and memory tasks. Antidepressant treatments also induce positive biases in these rodent tasks, supporting the translational validity of this approach. Although still in the early stages of development and validation, affective biases in depression have the potential to offer new insights into the clinical condition, as well as facilitating the development of more translational approaches for pre-clinical studies.

  3. Preventing halo bias in grading the work of university students

    OpenAIRE

    John M. Malouff; Sarah J. Stein; Lodewicka N. Bothma; Kimberley Coulter; Ashley J. Emmerton

    2014-01-01

    Experts have advocated anonymous marking as a means of minimizing bias in subjective student assessment. In the present study, 159 faculty members or teaching assistants across disciplines were randomly assigned (1) to grade a poor oral presentation of a university student, (2) to grade a good oral presentation of the same student, or (3) not to grade any oral presentation of the student. All graders then assessed the same written work by the student. A linear-contrasts analysis showed that, ...

  4. A system for biasing a differential amplifier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbier, Daniel; Ittel, J.M.; Poujois, Robert

    1975-01-01

    This invention concerns a system for biasing a differential amplifier. It particularly applies to the integrated differential amplifiers designed with MOS field effect transistors. Variations in the technological parameters may well cause the amplifying transistors to work outside their usual operational area, in other words outside the linear part of the transfer characteristic. To ensure that these transistors function correctly, it is necessary that the value of the voltage difference at the output be equally null. To do this and to centre on the so called 'rest' point of the amplifier transfer charateristic, the condition will be set that the output potentials of each amplifier transistor should have a zero value or a constant value as sum. With this in view, the bias on the source (generally a transistor powered by its grid bias voltage) supplying current to the two amplifying transistors fitted in parallel, is permanently adjusted in a suitable manner [fr

  5. Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

  6. Expert judgement in performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.

    2000-01-01

    This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

  7. Expert judgement in performance assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2000-01-01

    This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

  8. Health risk perception, optimistic bias, and personal satisfaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bränström, Richard; Brandberg, Yvonne

    2010-01-01

    To examine change in risk perception and optimistic bias concerning behavior-linked health threats and environmental health threats between adolescence and young adulthood and how these factors related to personal satisfaction. In 1996 and 2002, 1624 adolescents responded to a mailed questionnaire. Adolescents showed strong positive optimistic bias concerning behaviorlinked risks, and this optimistic bias increased with age. Increase in optimistic bias over time predicted increase in personal satisfaction. The capacity to process and perceive potential threats in a positive manner might be a valuable human ability positively influencing personal satisfaction and well-being.

  9. Telecontrol - Expert systems. Real-time monitoring and remote diagnostic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lam, A.

    1996-09-01

    The role of expert systems in programming simple and complex tasks in utilities companies was discussed with examples from B.C. Hydro, where expert systems have been used in such diverse applications as an in-house programmable logic controller (PLC) training course, and a machine audit on a 150 MW steam turbine generating unit at their Burrard Thermal Generating Plant. The PLC tutoring program uses expert system technology for the air blast circuit breakers` air drier system, for individualized on-site training. The steam turbine audits (an eight-month long project) were performed remotely by dialing an on-site computer configured with customized expert software. Details of these, and other potential applications, such as transformer monitoring and diagnostics, circuit breaker performance analysis, and information management, were described.

  10. Expert system based radionuclide identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aarnio, P.A.; Ala-Heikkil, J.J.; Hakulinen, T.T.; Nikkinen, M.T.

    1998-01-01

    An expert system coupled with the gamma spectrum analysis system SAMPO has been developed for automating the qualitative identification of radionuclides as well as for determining the quantitative parameters of the spectrum components. The program is written in C-language and runs in various environments ranging from PCs to UNIX workstations. The expert system utilizes a complete gamma library with over 2600 nuclides and 80,000 lines, and a rule base of about fifty criteria including energies, relative peak intensities, genesis modes, half lives, parent-daughter relationships, etc. The rule base is furthermore extensible by the user. This is not an original contribution but a somewhat updated version of papers and reports previously published elsewhere. (author)

  11. Expert Systems in Government Administration

    OpenAIRE

    Weintraub, Joseph

    1989-01-01

    Artificial Intelligence is solving more and more real world problems, but penetration into the complexities of government administration has been minimal. The author suggests that combining expert system technology with conventional procedural computer systems can lead to substantial efficiencies. Business rules can be removed from business-oriented computer systems and stored in a separate but integrated knowledge base, where maintenance will be centralized. Fourteen specific practical appli...

  12. Expert witness and Jungian archetypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lallave, Juan Antonio; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Jung's theories of archetype, shadow, and the personal and collective unconscious provide a postmodern framework in which to consider the role of the expert witness in judicial proceedings. Archetypal themes, motifs, and influences help to illuminate the shadow of the judicial system and projections and behaviors among the cast of the court in pursuing justice. This article speaks to archetypal influences and dialectical tensions encountered by the expert witness in this judicial drama. The archetype of Justice is born from the human need for order and relational fairness in a world of chaos. The persona of justice is the promise of truth in the drama. The shadow of justice is untruth, the need to win by any means. The dynamics of the trickster archetype serve and promote injustice. These influences are examined by means of a case example. This approach will deepen understanding of court proceedings and the role of the expert witness in the heroic quest for justice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Expert System for ASIC Imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Shri N.; Arshak, Khalil I.; McDonnell, Pearse; Boyce, Conor; Duggan, Andrew

    1989-07-01

    With the developments in the techniques of artificial intelligence over the last few years, development of advisory, scheduling and similar class of problems has become very convenient using tools such as PROLOG. In this paper an expert system has been described which helps lithographers and process engineers in several ways. The methodology used is to model each work station according to its input, output and control parameters, combine these work stations in a logical sequence based on past experience and work out process schedule for a job. In addition, all the requirements vis-a-vis a particular job parameters are converted into decision rules. One example is the exposure time, develop time for a wafer with different feature sizes would be different. This expert system has been written in Turbo Prolog. By building up a large number of rules, one can tune the program to any facility and use it for as diverse applications as advisory help, trouble shooting etc. Leitner (1) has described an advisory expert system that is being used at National Semiconductor. This system is quite different from the one being reported in the present paper. The approach is quite different for one. There is stress on job flow and process for another.

  14. Common method biases in behavioral research: a critical review of the literature and recommended remedies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podsakoff, Philip M; MacKenzie, Scott B; Lee, Jeong-Yeon; Podsakoff, Nathan P

    2003-10-01

    Interest in the problem of method biases has a long history in the behavioral sciences. Despite this, a comprehensive summary of the potential sources of method biases and how to control for them does not exist. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to examine the extent to which method biases influence behavioral research results, identify potential sources of method biases, discuss the cognitive processes through which method biases influence responses to measures, evaluate the many different procedural and statistical techniques that can be used to control method biases, and provide recommendations for how to select appropriate procedural and statistical remedies for different types of research settings.

  15. Exchange bias theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiwi, Miguel

    2001-01-01

    Research on the exchange bias (EB) phenomenon has witnessed a flurry of activity during recent years, which stems from its use in magnetic sensors and as stabilizers in magnetic reading heads. EB was discovered in 1956 but it attracted only limited attention until these applications, closely related to giant magnetoresistance, were developed during the last decade. In this review, I initially give a short introduction, listing the most salient experimental results and what is required from an EB theory. Next, I indicate some of the obstacles in the road towards a satisfactory understanding of the phenomenon. The main body of the text reviews and critically discusses the activity that has flourished, mainly during the last 5 years, in the theoretical front. Finally, an evaluation of the progress made, and a critical assessment as to where we stand nowadays along the road to a satisfactory theory, is presented

  16. On the "general acceptance" of eyewitness testimony research. A new survey of the experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassin, S M; Tubb, V A; Hosch, H M; Memon, A

    2001-05-01

    In light of recent advances, this study updated a prior survey of eyewitness experts (S. M. Kassin, P. C. Ellsworth, & V. L. Smith, 1989). Sixty-four psychologists were asked about their courtroom experiences and opinions on 30 eyewitness phenomena. By an agreement rate of at least 80%, there was a strong consensus that the following phenomena are sufficiently reliable to present in court: the wording of questions, lineup instructions, confidence malleability, mug-shot-induced bias, postevent information, child witness suggestibility, attitudes and expectations, hypnotic suggestibility, alcoholic intoxication, the crossrace bias, weapon focus, the accuracy-confidence correlation, the forgetting curve, exposure time, presentation format, and unconscious transference. Results also indicate that these experts set high standards before agreeing to testify. Despite limitations, these results should help to shape expert testimony so that it more accurately represents opinions in the scientific community.

  17. On the use of expert judgments to estimate the pressure increment in the Sequoyah containment at vessel breach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chhibber, S.; Apostolakis, G.E.; Okrent, D.

    1994-01-01

    The use of expert judgments in probabilistic risk assessments has become common. Simple aggregation methods have often been used with the result that expert biases and interexpert dependence are often neglected. Sophisticated theoretical models for the use of expert opinions have been proposed that offer ways of incorporating expert biases and dependence, but they have not found wide acceptance because of the difficulty and rigor of these methods. Practical guidance on the use of the versatile Bayesian expert judgment aggregation model is provided. In particular, the case study of pressure increment due to vessel breach in the Sequoyah nuclear power plant is chosen to illustrate how phenomenological uncertainty can be addressed by using the Bayesian aggregation model. The results indicate that the Bayesian aggregation model is a suitable candidate model for aggregating expert judgments, especially if there is phenomenological uncertainty. Phenomenological uncertainty can be represented through the dependence parameter of the Bayesian model. This is because the sharing of assumptions by the experts tends to introduce dependence between the experts. The extent of commonality in the experts' beliefs can be characterized by assessing their interdependence. The results indicate that uncertainty is possibly underestimated by ignoring dependence

  18. Use of expert judgement in NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz, N.R.; Wheeler, T.A.; Breeding, R.J.; Hora, S.; Meyer, M.A.; Kenney, R.L.

    1991-01-01

    The explicit expert judgment process used in NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Plants', is discussed in this paper. The main steps of the process are described, including selection of issues and experts, elicitation training, presentation of issues to the experts, preparation of issue analyses by the experts, discussion of issue analyses and elicitation, and recomposition and aggregation of results. To demonstrate the application of the expert judgment process to NUREG-1150, two issues are summarized: one from the accident frequency analysis, and one from the accident progression analysis. Recommendations and insights are provided to improve the use of explicit expert judgment in complex technical issues. (orig.)

  19. Acquisition of Expert/Non-Expert Vocabulary from Reformulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoine, Edwige; Grabar, Natalia

    2017-01-01

    Technical medical terms are complicated to be correctly understood by non-experts. Vocabulary, associating technical terms with layman expressions, can help in increasing the readability of technical texts and their understanding. The purpose of our work is to build this kind of vocabulary. We propose to exploit the notion of reformulation following two methods: extraction of abbreviations and of reformulations with specific markers. The segments associated thanks to these methods are aligned with medical terminologies. Our results allow to cover over 9,000 medical terms and show precision of extractions between 0.24 and 0.98. The results and analyzed and compared with the existing work.

  20. A demonstration of expert systems applications in transportation engineering : volume I, transportation engineers and expert systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-01-01

    Expert systems, a branch of artificial-intelligence studies, is introduced with a view to its relevance in transportation engineering. Knowledge engineering, the process of building expert systems or transferring knowledge from human experts to compu...

  1. Religious Attitudes and Home Bias

    OpenAIRE

    C. Reggiani; G. Rossini

    2008-01-01

    Home bias affects trade in goods, services and financial assets. It is mostly generated by "natural" trade barriers. Among these dividers we may list many behavioral and sociological factors, such as status quo biases and a few kind of ‘embeddedness’. Unfortunately these factors are difficult to measure. An important part of ‘embeddedness’ may be related to religious attitudes. Is there any relation between economic home bias and religious attitudes at the individual tier? Our aim is to provi...

  2. NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millwater, H.; Palmer, K.; Fink, P.

    1988-01-01

    An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

  3. Bias in clinical intervention research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gluud, Lise Lotte

    2006-01-01

    Research on bias in clinical trials may help identify some of the reasons why investigators sometimes reach the wrong conclusions about intervention effects. Several quality components for the assessment of bias control have been suggested, but although they seem intrinsically valid, empirical...... evidence is needed to evaluate their effects on the extent and direction of bias. This narrative review summarizes the findings of methodological studies on the influence of bias in clinical trials. A number of methodological studies suggest that lack of adequate randomization in published trial reports...

  4. Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrini, Paolo; Brambilla, Mattia; Rolando, Antonio; Girardello, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds). For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community. PMID:26966659

  5. Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan E. Chamberlain

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds. For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community.

  6. Information environment, behavioral biases, and home bias in analysts’ recommendations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farooq, Omar; Taouss, Mohammed

    2012-01-01

    Can information environment of a firm explain home bias in analysts’ recommendations? Can the extent of agency problems explain optimism difference between foreign and local analysts? This paper answers these questions by documenting the effect of information environment on home bias in analysts’...

  7. Threat bias, not negativity bias, underpins differences in political ideology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lilienfeld, Scott O; Latzman, Robert D

    2014-06-01

    Although disparities in political ideology are rooted partly in dispositional differences, Hibbing et al.'s analysis paints with an overly broad brush. Research on the personality correlates of liberal-conservative differences points not to global differences in negativity bias, but to differences in threat bias, probably emanating from differences in fearfulness. This distinction bears implications for etiological research and persuasion efforts.

  8. Cataloging Expert Systems: Optimism and Frustrated Reality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olmstadt, William J.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses artificial intelligence and attempts to catalog expert systems. Topics include the nature of expertise; examples of cataloging expert systems; barriers to implementation; and problems, including total automation, cataloging expertise, priorities, and system design. (LRW)

  9. Expert Oracle RAC 12c

    CERN Document Server

    Shamsudeen, Riyaj; Yu, Kai; Farooq, Tariq

    2013-01-01

    Expert Oracle RAC 12c is a hands-on book helping you understand and implement Oracle Real Application Clusters (RAC), and to reduce the total-cost-of-ownership (TCO) of a RAC database. As a seasoned professional, you are probably aware of the importance of understanding the technical details behind the RAC stack. This book provides deep understanding of RAC concepts and implementation details that you can apply toward your day-to-day operational practices. You'll be guided in troubleshooting and avoiding trouble in your installation. Successful RAC operation hinges upon a fast-performing netwo

  10. Expert Oracle GoldenGate

    CERN Document Server

    Prusinski, Ben; Chung, Richard

    2011-01-01

    Expert Oracle GoldenGate is a hands-on guide to creating and managing complex data replication environments using the latest in database replication technology from Oracle. GoldenGate is the future in replication technology from Oracle, and aims to be best-of-breed. GoldenGate supports homogeneous replication between Oracle databases. It supports heterogeneous replication involving other brands such as Microsoft SQL Server and IBM DB2 Universal Server. GoldenGate is high-speed, bidirectional, highly-parallelized, and makes only a light impact on the performance of databases involved in replica

  11. Fuzzy expert systems using CLIPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Thach C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a CLIPS-based fuzzy expert system development environment called FCLIPS and illustrates its application to the simulated cart-pole balancing problem. FCLIPS is a straightforward extension of CLIPS without any alteration to the CLIPS internal structures. It makes use of the object-oriented and module features in CLIPS version 6.0 for the implementation of fuzzy logic concepts. Systems of varying degrees of mixed Boolean and fuzzy rules can be implemented in CLIPS. Design and implementation issues of FCLIPS will also be discussed.

  12. The construct equivalence and item bias of the pib/SpEEx conceptualisation-ability test for members of five language groups in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pieter Schaap

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available This study’s objective was to determine whether the Potential Index Batteries/Situation Specific Evaluation Expert (PIB/SpEEx conceptualisation (100 ability test displays construct equivalence and item bias for members of five selected language groups in South Africa. The sample consisted of a non-probability convenience sample (N = 6 261 of members of five language groups (speakers of Afrikaans, English, North Sotho, Setswana and isiZulu working in the medical and beverage industries or studying at higher-educational institutions. Exploratory factor analysis with target rotations confrmed the PIB/SpEEx 100’s construct equivalence for the respondents from these five language groups. No evidence of either uniform or non-uniform item bias of practical signifcance was found for the sample.

  13. An expert system for uranium exploration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chhipa, V.K.; Sengupta, M.

    1989-01-01

    Artificial intelligence is an emerging technology in the field of computer application. Expert systems have been developed to imitate human intelligence and reasoning process. Expert systems have much scope of application in the decision making process in mineral exploration as such decisions are highly subjective and expert opinions are very helpful. This paper presents a small expert system to analyze the reasoning process in exploring for uranium deposits in sandstone

  14. Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

    OpenAIRE

    Chernysheva, Tatiana Yurievna; Korchuganova, Mariya Anatolievna; Borisov, V. V.; Minkov, S. L.

    2016-01-01

    Revealing experts' competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

  15. Fire Effects, Education, and Expert Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Martin

    1987-01-01

    Predicting the effects of fires in the year 2000 and beyond will be enhanced by the use of expert systems. Although our predictions may have broad confidence limits, expert systems should help us to improve the predictions and to focus on the areas where improved knowledge is most needed. The knowledge of experts can be incorporated into previously existing knowledge...

  16. Differentiating Experts' Anticipatory Skills in Beach Volleyball

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J. P.

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos…

  17. Expert systems in process control systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wittig, T.

    1987-01-01

    To illustrate where the fundamental difference between expert systems in classical diagnosis and in industrial control lie, the work of process control instrumentation is used as an example for the job of expert systems. Starting from the general process of problem-solving, two classes of expert systems can be defined accordingly. (orig.) [de

  18. Expert Systems for auditing management information systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheroghe Popescu

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Expert systems are built with the help of: specialised programming languages or expert system generators (shell. But this structure was reached after tens of years of work and research, because expert systems are nothing but pragmatic capitalisation of the results of research carried out in artificial intelligence and theory of knowledge.

  19. Potential sources of bias in the use of individual's recall of the frequency of exposure to air pollution for use in exposure assessment in epidemiological studies: a cross-sectional survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bickerstaff Karen

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In a previous study it has been shown that mean population perception of air pollution correlates well with physical measures of actual air pollution and could be used as a measure of exposure to air pollution, at least for those forms of pollution perceptible to humans. However, for such a measure to be valid researchers would need to be confident that it was not strongly biased by possible confounding variables. This study reports the association between perception of above average levels of air pollution compared with others in the neighbourhood and a number of factors that may influence reporting. Methods This was a postal cross-sectional study of 3402 households in England in a mixed rural and urban area adjacent to a large industrial complex. Respondents were asked about their social and demographic characteristics, the presence of respiratory symptoms and frequency of exposure to a range of pollution types. Results and discussion There were strong associations (p Conclusions We did not find any evidence of bias that would substantially invalidate mean population reporting of air pollution severity as a measure of exposure in epidemiological studies, though care may be needed in interpreting results where those factors found to be significant in this study vary substantially between areas.

  20. Ask-the-expert: Active Learning Based Knowledge Discovery Using the Expert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Kamalika; Avrekh, Ilya; Matthews, Bryan; Sharma, Manali; Oza, Nikunj

    2017-01-01

    Often the manual review of large data sets, either for purposes of labeling unlabeled instances or for classifying meaningful results from uninteresting (but statistically significant) ones is extremely resource intensive, especially in terms of subject matter expert (SME) time. Use of active learning has been shown to diminish this review time significantly. However, since active learning is an iterative process of learning a classifier based on a small number of SME-provided labels at each iteration, the lack of an enabling tool can hinder the process of adoption of these technologies in real-life, in spite of their labor-saving potential. In this demo we present ASK-the-Expert, an interactive tool that allows SMEs to review instances from a data set and provide labels within a single framework. ASK-the-Expert is powered by an active learning algorithm for training a classifier in the backend. We demonstrate this system in the context of an aviation safety application, but the tool can be adopted to work as a simple review and labeling tool as well, without the use of active learning.

  1. Expert system validation in prolog

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, Todd; Stachowitz, Rolf; Chang, Chin-Liang; Combs, Jacqueline

    1988-01-01

    An overview of the Expert System Validation Assistant (EVA) is being implemented in Prolog at the Lockheed AI Center. Prolog was chosen to facilitate rapid prototyping of the structure and logic checkers and since February 1987, we have implemented code to check for irrelevance, subsumption, duplication, deadends, unreachability, and cycles. The architecture chosen is extremely flexible and expansible, yet concise and complementary with the normal interactive style of Prolog. The foundation of the system is in the connection graph representation. Rules and facts are modeled as nodes in the graph and arcs indicate common patterns between rules. The basic activity of the validation system is then a traversal of the connection graph, searching for various patterns the system recognizes as erroneous. To aid in specifying these patterns, a metalanguage is developed, providing the user with the basic facilities required to reason about the expert system. Using the metalanguage, the user can, for example, give the Prolog inference engine the goal of finding inconsistent conclusions among the rules, and Prolog will search the graph intantiations which can match the definition of inconsistency. Examples of code for some of the checkers are provided and the algorithms explained. Technical highlights include automatic construction of a connection graph, demonstration of the use of metalanguage, the A* algorithm modified to detect all unique cycles, general-purpose stacks in Prolog, and a general-purpose database browser with pattern completion.

  2. Heuristic Biases in Mathematical Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inglis, Matthew; Simpson, Adrian

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we briefly describe the dual process account of reasoning, and explain the role of heuristic biases in human thought. Concentrating on the so-called matching bias effect, we describe a piece of research that indicates a correlation between success at advanced level mathematics and an ability to override innate and misleading…

  3. Gender bias affects forests worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlène Elias; Susan S Hummel; Bimbika S Basnett; Carol J.P. Colfer

    2017-01-01

    Gender biases persist in forestry research and practice. These biases result in reduced scientific rigor and inequitable, ineffective, and less efficient policies, programs, and interventions. Drawing from a two-volume collection of current and classic analyses on gender in forests, we outline five persistent and inter-related themes: gendered governance, tree tenure,...

  4. Anti-Bias Education: Reflections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derman-Sparks, Louise

    2011-01-01

    It is 30 years since NAEYC published "Anti-Bias Curriculum Tools for Empowering Young Children" (Derman-Sparks & ABC Task Force, 1989). Since then, anti-bias education concepts have become part of the early childhood education (ECE) narrative in the United States and many other countries. It has brought a fresh way of thinking about…

  5. Knowledge base to develop expert system prototype for predicting groundwater pollution from nitrogen fertilizer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ta-oun, M.; Daud, M.; Bardaie, M.Z.; Jusop, S.

    1999-01-01

    An expert system for prediction the impact of nitrogen fertilizer on groundwater pollution potential was established by using CLIPS (NASA's Jonson Space Centre). The knowledge base could be extracted from FAO reports, ministry of agriculture and rural development Malaysia report, established literature and domain expert for preparing an expert system skeleton. An expert system was used to correlate the availability of nitrogen fertilizer with the vulnerability of groundwater to pollution in Peninsula Malaysia and to identify potential groundwater quality problems. An n-fertilizer groundwater pollution potential index produced b using the vulnerability of groundwater to pollution yields a more accurate screening toll for identifying potential pollution problems than by considering vulnerability alone. An expert system can predict the groundwater pollution potential under several conditions of agricultural activities and existing environments. (authors)

  6. Elicitation and use of expert judgment in performance assessment for high-level radioactive waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonano, E.J.; Hora, S.C.; Keeney, R.L.; von Winterfeldt, D.

    1990-05-01

    This report presents the concept of formalizing the elicitation and use of expert judgment in the performance assessment of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repositories in deep geologic formations. The report begins with a discussion of characteristics (advantages and disadvantages) of formalizing expert judgment examples of previous uses of expert judgment in radioactive waste programs, criteria that can assist in deciding when to formalize expert judgment, and the relationship of formal use of expert judgment to data collection and modeling. The current state of the art with respect to the elicitation, use, and communication of formal expert judgment is presented. The report concludes with a discussion on potential applications of formal expert judgment in performance assessment of HLW repositories. 93 refs

  7. Attentional bias modification encourages healthy eating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakoschke, Naomi; Kemps, Eva; Tiggemann, Marika

    2014-01-01

    The continual exposure to unhealthy food cues in the environment encourages poor dietary habits, in particular consuming too much fat and sugar, and not enough fruit and vegetables. According to Berridge's (2009) model of food reward, unhealthy eating is a behavioural response to biased attentional processing. The present study used an established attentional bias modification paradigm to discourage the consumption of unhealthy food and instead promote healthy eating. Participants were 146 undergraduate women who were randomly assigned to two groups: one was trained to direct their attention toward pictures of healthy food ('attend healthy' group) and the other toward unhealthy food ('attend unhealthy' group). It was found that participants trained to attend to healthy food cues demonstrated an increased attentional bias for such cues and ate relatively more of the healthy than unhealthy snacks compared to the 'attend unhealthy' group. Theoretically, the results support the postulated link between biased attentional processing and consumption (Berridge, 2009). At a practical level, they offer potential scope for interventions that focus on eating well. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Visual attention and the neuroimage bias.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D A Baker

    Full Text Available Several highly-cited experiments have presented evidence suggesting that neuroimages may unduly bias laypeople's judgments of scientific research. This finding has been especially worrisome to the legal community in which neuroimage techniques may be used to produce evidence of a person's mental state. However, a more recent body of work that has looked directly at the independent impact of neuroimages on layperson decision-making (both in legal and more general arenas, and has failed to find evidence of bias. To help resolve these conflicting findings, this research uses eye tracking technology to provide a measure of attention to different visual representations of neuroscientific data. Finding an effect of neuroimages on the distribution of attention would provide a potential mechanism for the influence of neuroimages on higher-level decisions. In the present experiment, a sample of laypeople viewed a vignette that briefly described a court case in which the defendant's actions might have been explained by a neurological defect. Accompanying these vignettes was either an MRI image of the defendant's brain, or a bar graph depicting levels of brain activity-two competing visualizations that have been the focus of much of the previous research on the neuroimage bias. We found that, while laypeople differentially attended to neuroimagery relative to the bar graph, this did not translate into differential judgments in a way that would support the idea of a neuroimage bias.

  9. Problematic Aspects of the Use of Expert Systems in Law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Kalinauskas

    2011-08-01

    intellectual potential in order to gain rights and obligations. They are not a legal subject, so they cannot be responsible for their actions. However, the evolution of intellectualized systems is rather slow but steady (compared to other computer sciences. So there is a possibility that expert system may have the ability to gain their rights and obligations in the future. There is some doubt as to whether intellectualized systems will be able to gain status similar to a human legal subject. Therefore some quasi-subject status may be applied to these systems in the future. Legal expert systems are applied nowadays in legal practice, and they do make mistakes. Who is responsible for these mistakes and who should be held liable for the negative consequences? It’s a hard question to answer, because of many factors which may cause the poor performance of the system. While there is no direct legal responsibility for expert systems, but damage done by their decisions may be real, the situation when there is no responsibility, subjects may occur. Some researchers claim that expert systems help improve the juridical quality of legal process, but the risk of mistake is always there, so intellectualized systems must be used only as advisers, but not as a justice implementation instruments.

  10. Problematic Aspects of the Use of Expert Systems in Law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Kalinauskas

    2013-08-01

    potential in order to gain rights and obligations. They are not a legal subject, so they cannot be responsible for their actions. However, the evolution of intellectualized systems is rather slow but steady (compared to other computer sciences. So there is a possibility that expert system may have the ability to gain their rights and obligations in the future. There is some doubt as to whether intellectualized systems will be able to gain status similar to a human legal subject. Therefore some quasi-subject status may be applied to these systems in the future. Legal expert systems are applied nowadays in legal practice, and they do make mistakes. Who is responsible for these mistakes and who should be held liable for the negative consequences? It’s a hard question to answer, because of many factors which may cause the poor performance of the system. While there is no direct legal responsibility for expert systems, but damage done by their decisions may be real, the situation when there is no responsibility, subjects may occur. Some researchers claim that expert systems help improve the juridical quality of legal process, but the risk of mistake is always there, so intellectualized systems must be used only as advisers, but not as a justice implementation instruments.

  11. Large-scale galaxy bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desjacques, Vincent; Jeong, Donghui; Schmidt, Fabian

    2018-02-01

    This review presents a comprehensive overview of galaxy bias, that is, the statistical relation between the distribution of galaxies and matter. We focus on large scales where cosmic density fields are quasi-linear. On these scales, the clustering of galaxies can be described by a perturbative bias expansion, and the complicated physics of galaxy formation is absorbed by a finite set of coefficients of the expansion, called bias parameters. The review begins with a detailed derivation of this very important result, which forms the basis of the rigorous perturbative description of galaxy clustering, under the assumptions of General Relativity and Gaussian, adiabatic initial conditions. Key components of the bias expansion are all leading local gravitational observables, which include the matter density but also tidal fields and their time derivatives. We hence expand the definition of local bias to encompass all these contributions. This derivation is followed by a presentation of the peak-background split in its general form, which elucidates the physical meaning of the bias parameters, and a detailed description of the connection between bias parameters and galaxy statistics. We then review the excursion-set formalism and peak theory which provide predictions for the values of the bias parameters. In the remainder of the review, we consider the generalizations of galaxy bias required in the presence of various types of cosmological physics that go beyond pressureless matter with adiabatic, Gaussian initial conditions: primordial non-Gaussianity, massive neutrinos, baryon-CDM isocurvature perturbations, dark energy, and modified gravity. Finally, we discuss how the description of galaxy bias in the galaxies' rest frame is related to clustering statistics measured from the observed angular positions and redshifts in actual galaxy catalogs.

  12. Large-scale galaxy bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Donghui; Desjacques, Vincent; Schmidt, Fabian

    2018-01-01

    Here, we briefly introduce the key results of the recent review (arXiv:1611.09787), whose abstract is as following. This review presents a comprehensive overview of galaxy bias, that is, the statistical relation between the distribution of galaxies and matter. We focus on large scales where cosmic density fields are quasi-linear. On these scales, the clustering of galaxies can be described by a perturbative bias expansion, and the complicated physics of galaxy formation is absorbed by a finite set of coefficients of the expansion, called bias parameters. The review begins with a detailed derivation of this very important result, which forms the basis of the rigorous perturbative description of galaxy clustering, under the assumptions of General Relativity and Gaussian, adiabatic initial conditions. Key components of the bias expansion are all leading local gravitational observables, which include the matter density but also tidal fields and their time derivatives. We hence expand the definition of local bias to encompass all these contributions. This derivation is followed by a presentation of the peak-background split in its general form, which elucidates the physical meaning of the bias parameters, and a detailed description of the connection between bias parameters and galaxy (or halo) statistics. We then review the excursion set formalism and peak theory which provide predictions for the values of the bias parameters. In the remainder of the review, we consider the generalizations of galaxy bias required in the presence of various types of cosmological physics that go beyond pressureless matter with adiabatic, Gaussian initial conditions: primordial non-Gaussianity, massive neutrinos, baryon-CDM isocurvature perturbations, dark energy, and modified gravity. Finally, we discuss how the description of galaxy bias in the galaxies' rest frame is related to clustering statistics measured from the observed angular positions and redshifts in actual galaxy catalogs.

  13. Operational expert system applications in Canada

    CERN Document Server

    Suen, Ching Y

    1992-01-01

    This book is part of a new series on operational expert systems worldwide. Expert systems are now widely used in different parts of the world for various applications. The past four years have witnessed a steady growth in the development and deployment of expert systems in Canada. Research in this field has also gained considerable momentum during the past few years. However, the field of expert systems is still young in Canada. This book contains 13 chapters contributed by 31 experts from both universities and industries across Canada covering a wide range of applications related to electric

  14. TOXPERT: An Expert System for Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto, R. J.; Osimitz, T. G.; Oleson, A.

    1988-01-01

    TOXPERT is an artificial intelligence based system used to model product safety, toxicology (TOX) and regulatory (REG) decision processes. An expert system shell uses backward chaining rule control to link “marketing approval” goals to the type of product, REG agency, exposure conditions and TOX. Marketing risks are primarily a function of the TOX, hazards and exposure potential. The method employed differentiates between REG requirements in goal seeking control for various types of products. This is accomplished by controlling rule execution by defining frames for each REG agency. In addition, TOXPERT produces classifications of TOX ratings and suggested product labeling. This production rule system uses principles of TOX, REGs, corporate guidelines and internal “rules of thumb.” TOXPERT acts as an advisor for this narrow domain. Advantages are that it can make routine decisions freeing professional's time for more complex problem solving, provide backup and training.

  15. Distributed expert systems for ground and space applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, Brian; Wheatcraft, Louis

    1992-01-01

    Presented here is the Spacecraft Command Language (SCL) concept of the unification of ground and space operations using a distributed approach. SCL is a hybrid software environment borrowing from expert system technology, fifth generation language development, and multitasking operating system environments. Examples of potential uses for the system and current distributed applications of SCL are given.

  16. Pupil dilations reflect why Rembrandt biased female portraits leftward and males rightward

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James A Schirillo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Portrait painters are experts at examining faces and since emotional content may be expressed differently on each side of the face, consider that Rembrandt biased his male portraits to show their right cheek more often and female portraits to show their left cheek more often. This raises questions regarding the emotional significance of such biased positions. I presented rightward and leftward facing male and female portraits. I measured observers’ pupil size while asking observers to report how (displeasing they found each image. This was a methodological improvement over the type of research initially done by Eckhard Hess who claimed that pupils dilate to pleasant images and constrict to unpleasant images. His work was confounded since his images’ luminances and contrasts across conditions were inconsistent potentially affecting pupil size. To overcome this limitation I presented rightward or leftward facing male and female portraits by Rembrandt to observers in either their original or mirror-reversed position. I found that in viewing male portraits pupil diameter was a function of arousal. That is, larger pupil diameter occurred for images rated both low and high in pleasantness. This was not the case with female portraits. I discuss these findings in regard to the perceived dominance of males and how emotional expressions may be driven by hemispheric laterality.

  17. Database, expert systems, information retrieval

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fedele, P.; Grandoni, G.; Mammarella, M.C.

    1989-12-01

    The great debate concerning the Italian high-school reform has induced a ferment of activity among the most interested and sensible of people. This was clearly demonstrated by the course 'Innovazione metodologico-didattica e tecnologie informatiche' organized for the staff of the 'lstituto Professionale L. Einaudi' of Lamezia Terme. The course was an interesting opportunity for discussions and interaction between the world of School and computer technology used in the Research field. This three day course included theoretical and practical lessons, showing computer facilities that could be useful for teaching. During the practical lessons some computer tools were presented from the very simple Electronic Sheets to the more complicated information Retrieval on CD-ROM interactive realizations. The main topics will be discussed later. They are: Modelling, Data Base, Integrated Information Systems, Expert Systems, Information Retrieval. (author)

  18. The useability of expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, D.J.

    1990-01-01

    This talk presents the case that it is the user of an Expert System (ES), and the user alone, who must decide on the acceptability of such a system. Further, the useability of an ES is principally a function of the user interface: if a system takes a long time to learn, it will not be used effectively. Some ES are implemented on computers with command line interfaces. It is shown (via a live demonstration using a computer) that such systems restrict the AI professiona's ability to deliver a system which is satisfactory from the use's viewpoint: the limitations of the computer system will dictate the user interface, independently of the user requirements. Only a computer system with a graphical interface can supply the versatility and functionality required by the user. Examples of graphical interface facilities are given

  19. Database and Expert Systems Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viborg Andersen, Kim; Debenham, John; Wagner, Roland

    schemata, query evaluation, semantic processing, information retrieval, temporal and spatial databases, querying XML, organisational aspects of databases, natural language processing, ontologies, Web data extraction, semantic Web, data stream management, data extraction, distributed database systems......This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Database and Expert Systems Applications, DEXA 2005, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in August 2005.The 92 revised full papers presented together with 2 invited papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 390...... submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on workflow automation, database queries, data classification and recommendation systems, information retrieval in multimedia databases, Web applications, implementational aspects of databases, multimedia databases, XML processing, security, XML...

  20. Sources of bias in clinical ethics case deliberation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magelssen, Morten; Pedersen, Reidar; Førde, Reidun

    2014-10-01

    A central task for clinical ethics consultants and committees (CEC) is providing analysis of, and advice on, prospective or retrospective clinical cases. However, several kinds of biases may threaten the integrity, relevance or quality of the CEC's deliberation. Bias should be identified and, if possible, reduced or counteracted. This paper provides a systematic classification of kinds of bias that may be present in a CEC's case deliberation. Six kinds of bias are discussed, with examples, as to their significance and risk factors. Possible remedies are suggested. The potential for bias is greater when the case deliberation is performed by an individual ethics consultant than when an entire clinical ethics committee is involved. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  1. Nonlinear vs. linear biasing in Trp-cage folding simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spiwok, Vojtěch, E-mail: spiwokv@vscht.cz; Oborský, Pavel; Králová, Blanka [Department of Biochemistry and Microbiology, University of Chemistry and Technology, Prague, Technická 3, Prague 6 166 28 (Czech Republic); Pazúriková, Jana [Institute of Computer Science, Masaryk University, Botanická 554/68a, 602 00 Brno (Czech Republic); Křenek, Aleš [Institute of Computer Science, Masaryk University, Botanická 554/68a, 602 00 Brno (Czech Republic); Center CERIT-SC, Masaryk Univerzity, Šumavská 416/15, 602 00 Brno (Czech Republic)

    2015-03-21

    Biased simulations have great potential for the study of slow processes, including protein folding. Atomic motions in molecules are nonlinear, which suggests that simulations with enhanced sampling of collective motions traced by nonlinear dimensionality reduction methods may perform better than linear ones. In this study, we compare an unbiased folding simulation of the Trp-cage miniprotein with metadynamics simulations using both linear (principle component analysis) and nonlinear (Isomap) low dimensional embeddings as collective variables. Folding of the mini-protein was successfully simulated in 200 ns simulation with linear biasing and non-linear motion biasing. The folded state was correctly predicted as the free energy minimum in both simulations. We found that the advantage of linear motion biasing is that it can sample a larger conformational space, whereas the advantage of nonlinear motion biasing lies in slightly better resolution of the resulting free energy surface. In terms of sampling efficiency, both methods are comparable.

  2. Approach bias for food cues in obese individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemps, Eva; Tiggemann, Marika

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to investigate the existence of an approach bias for food cues in obese individuals. A community sample of 56 obese women and 56 normal weight controls completed an approach-avoidance variant of the implicit association task. The obese participants were faster to respond to trials that paired food words with approach words, and trials that paired non-food words with avoid words, than the converse pairings, thus, demonstrating an approach bias for food. This bias was evident for both high caloric and low caloric food words, and was not attributable to a state of deprivation or feelings of hunger. By contrast, the normal weight controls did not show any such bias. The results are consistent with recent neurocognitive perspectives of obesity. At a practical level, approach biases for food may present a potential target for modifying (excessive) food intake.

  3. Administrative bias in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E S Nwauche

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This article reviews the interpretation of section 6(2(aii of the Promotion of Administrative Justice Act which makes an administrator “biased or reasonably suspected of bias” a ground of judicial review. In this regard, the paper reviews the determination of administrative bias in South Africa especially highlighting the concept of institutional bias. The paper notes that inspite of the formulation of the bias ground of review the test for administrative bias is the reasonable apprehension test laid down in the case of President of South Africa v South African Rugby Football Union(2 which on close examination is not the same thing. Accordingly the paper urges an alternative interpretation that is based on the reasonable suspicion test enunciated in BTR Industries South Africa (Pty Ltd v Metal and Allied Workers Union and R v Roberts. Within this context, the paper constructs a model for interpreting the bias ground of review that combines the reasonable suspicion test as interpreted in BTR Industries and R v Roberts, the possibility of the waiver of administrative bias, the curative mechanism of administrative appeal as well as some level of judicial review exemplified by the jurisprudence of article 6(1 of the European Convention of Human Rights, especially in the light of the contemplation of the South African Magistrate Court as a jurisdictional route of judicial review.

  4. Biases in Quality Attribution to Mother-Child and Caregiver-Child Interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shpancer, Noam; Britner, Preston A.

    1995-01-01

    Examined the possible existence, direction, and nature of subconscious, cognitive biases in participants' quality attributions to maternal and nonmaternal child-care interactions, the relationship of such biases to subject's background, and their attitudes toward child care and maternal employment. Potential explanations for the biases and the…

  5. Surprise, Memory, and Retrospective Judgment Making: Testing Cognitive Reconstruction Theories of the Hindsight Bias Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ash, Ivan K.

    2009-01-01

    Hindsight bias has been shown to be a pervasive and potentially harmful decision-making bias. A review of 4 competing cognitive reconstruction theories of hindsight bias revealed conflicting predictions about the role and effect of expectation or surprise in retrospective judgment formation. Two experiments tested these predictions examining the…

  6. Lay and Expert Perceptions of Planetary Protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Race, Margaret S.; MacGregor, Donald G.; Slovic, Paul

    2000-01-01

    As space scientists and engineers plan new missions to Mars and other planets in our solar system, they will face critical questions about the potential for biological contamination of planetary surfaces. In a society that places ever-increasing importance on the role of public involvement in science and technology policy, questions about risks of biological contamination will be examined and debated in the media, and will lead to the formation of public perceptions of planetary-contamination risks. These perceptions will, over time, form an important input to the development of space policy. Previous research in public and expert perceptions of technological risks and hazards has shown that many of the problems faced by risk-management organizations are the result of differing perceptions of risk (and risk management) between the general public and scientific and technical experts. These differences manifest themselves both as disagreements about the definition (and level) of risk associated with a scientific, technological or industrial enterprise, and as distrust about the ability of risk-management organizations (both public and private) to adequately protect people's health and safety. This report presents the results of a set of survey studies designed to reveal perceptions of planetary exploration and protection from a wide range of respondents, including both members of the general public and experts in the life sciences. The potential value of this research lies in what it reveals about perceptions of risk and benefit that could improve risk-management policies and practices. For example, efforts to communicate with the public about Mars sample return missions could benefit from an understanding of the specific concerns that nonscientists have about such a mission by suggesting areas of potential improvement in public education and information. Assessment of both public and expert perceptions of risk can also be used to provide an advanced signal of

  7. Embedded expert system for space shuttle main engine maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pooley, J.; Thompson, W.; Homsley, T.; Teoh, W.; Jones, J.; Lewallen, P.

    1987-01-01

    The SPARTA Embedded Expert System (SEES) is an intelligent health monitoring system that directs analysis by placing confidence factors on possible engine status and then recommends a course of action to an engineer or engine controller. The technique can prevent catastropic failures or costly rocket engine down time because of false alarms. Further, the SEES has potential as an on-board flight monitor for reusable rocket engine systems. The SEES methodology synergistically integrates vibration analysis, pattern recognition and communications theory techniques with an artificial intelligence technique - the Embedded Expert System (EES).

  8. The Sport Expert's Attention Superiority on Skill-related Scene Dynamic by the Activation of left Medial Frontal Gyrus: An ERP and LORETA Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Mengyang; Qi, Changzhu; Lu, Yang; Song, Amanda; Hayat, Saba Z; Xu, Xia

    2018-05-21

    Extensive studies have shown that a sports expert is superior to a sports novice in visually perceptual-cognitive processes of sports scene information, however the attentional and neural basis of it has not been thoroughly explored. The present study examined whether a sport expert has the attentional superiority on scene information relevant to his/her sport skill, and explored what factor drives this superiority. To address this problem, EEGs were recorded as participants passively viewed sport scenes (tennis vs. non-tennis) and negative emotional faces in the context of a visual attention task, where the pictures of sport scenes or of negative emotional faces randomly followed the pictures with overlapping sport scenes and negative emotional faces. ERP results showed that for experts, the evoked potential of attentional competition elicited by the overlap of tennis scene was significantly larger than that evoked by the overlap of non-tennis scene, while this effect was absent for novices. The LORETA showed that the experts' left medial frontal gyrus (MFG) cortex was significantly more active as compared to the right MFG when processing the overlap of tennis scene, but the lateralization effect was not significant in novices. Those results indicate that experts have attentional superiority on skill-related scene information, despite intruding the scene through negative emotional faces that are prone to cause negativity bias toward their visual field as a strong distractor. This superiority is actuated by the activation of left MFG cortex and probably due to self-reference. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  9. Quantifying Heuristic Bias: Anchoring, Availability, and Representativeness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richie, Megan; Josephson, S Andrew

    2018-01-01

    Construct: Authors examined whether a new vignette-based instrument could isolate and quantify heuristic bias. Heuristics are cognitive shortcuts that may introduce bias and contribute to error. There is no standardized instrument available to quantify heuristic bias in clinical decision making, limiting future study of educational interventions designed to improve calibration of medical decisions. This study presents validity data to support a vignette-based instrument quantifying bias due to the anchoring, availability, and representativeness heuristics. Participants completed questionnaires requiring assignment of probabilities to potential outcomes of medical and nonmedical scenarios. The instrument randomly presented scenarios in one of two versions: Version A, encouraging heuristic bias, and Version B, worded neutrally. The primary outcome was the difference in probability judgments for Version A versus Version B scenario options. Of 167 participants recruited, 139 enrolled. Participants assigned significantly higher mean probability values to Version A scenario options (M = 9.56, SD = 3.75) than Version B (M = 8.98, SD = 3.76), t(1801) = 3.27, p = .001. This result remained significant analyzing medical scenarios alone (Version A, M = 9.41, SD = 3.92; Version B, M = 8.86, SD = 4.09), t(1204) = 2.36, p = .02. Analyzing medical scenarios by heuristic revealed a significant difference between Version A and B for availability (Version A, M = 6.52, SD = 3.32; Version B, M = 5.52, SD = 3.05), t(404) = 3.04, p = .003, and representativeness (Version A, M = 11.45, SD = 3.12; Version B, M = 10.67, SD = 3.71), t(396) = 2.28, p = .02, but not anchoring. Stratifying by training level, students maintained a significant difference between Version A and B medical scenarios (Version A, M = 9.83, SD = 3.75; Version B, M = 9.00, SD = 3.98), t(465) = 2.29, p = .02, but not residents or attendings. Stratifying by heuristic and training level, availability maintained

  10. Critical Thinking and Cognitive Bias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Maynes

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Teaching critical thinking skill is a central pedagogical aim in many courses. These skills, it is hoped, will be both portable (applicable in a wide range of contexts and durable (not forgotten quickly. Yet, both of these virtues are challenged by pervasive and potent cognitive biases, such as motivated reasoning, false consensus bias and hindsight bias. In this paper, I argue that a focus on the development of metacognitive skill shows promise as a means to inculcate debiasing habits in students. Such habits will help students become more critical reasoners. I close with suggestions for implementing this strategy.

  11. On the use of the analytic hierarchy process in the aggregation of expert judgments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, E.

    1996-01-01

    Expert judgments are involved in many aspects of scientific research, either formally or informally. In order to combine the different opinions elicited, simple aggregation methods have often been used with the result that expert biases, interexpert dependencies and other factors which might affect the judgments of the experts are often ignored. A more comprehensive approach, based on the analytic hierarchy process, is proposed in this paper to account for the large variety of factors influencing the experts. A structured hierarchy is constructed to decompose the overall problem in the elementary factors that can influence the expert's judgements. The importance of the different elements of the hierarchy is then assessed by pairwise comparison. The overall approach is simple, presents a systematic character and offers a good degree of flexibility. The approach provides the decision maker with a tool to quantitatively measure the significance of the judgments provided by the different experts involved in the elicitation. The resulting values can be used as weights in an aggregation scheme such as, for example, the simple weighted averaging scheme. Two applications of the approach are presented with reference to case studies of formal expert judgment elicitation previously analyzed in literature: the elicitation of the pressure increment in the containment building of the Sequoyah nuclear power plant following reactor vessel breach, and the prediction of the future changes in precipitation in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain

  12. Using expert opinion surveys to rank threats to endangered species: a case study with sea turtles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donlan, C Josh; Wingfield, Dana K; Crowder, Larry B; Wilcox, Chris

    2010-12-01

    Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet-based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at-sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial-based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more-striking pattern was with hazard-based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias-controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans.

  13. Survey of Expert Opinion on Intelligence: Causes of International Differences in Cognitive Ability Tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rindermann, Heiner; Becker, David; Coyle, Thomas R

    2016-01-01

    Following Snyderman and Rothman (1987, 1988), we surveyed expert opinions on the current state of intelligence research. This report examines expert opinions on causes of international differences in student assessment and psychometric IQ test results. Experts were surveyed about the importance of culture, genes, education (quantity and quality), wealth, health, geography, climate, politics, modernization, sampling error, test knowledge, discrimination, test bias, and migration. The importance of these factors was evaluated for diverse countries, regions, and groups including Finland, East Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Europe, the Arabian-Muslim world, Latin America, Israel, Jews in the West, Roma (gypsies), and Muslim immigrants. Education was rated by N = 71 experts as the most important cause of international ability differences. Genes were rated as the second most relevant factor but also had the highest variability in ratings. Culture, health, wealth, modernization, and politics were the next most important factors, whereas other factors such as geography, climate, test bias, and sampling error were less important. The paper concludes with a discussion of limitations of the survey (e.g., response rates and validity of expert opinions).

  14. Perceptive biases in major depressive episode.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marine Naudin

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Alterations in emotional processing occur during a major depressive episode (MDE, and olfaction and facial expressions have implications in emotional and social interactions. To gain a better understanding of these processes, we characterized the perceptive sensorial biases, potential links, and potential remission after antidepressant treatment of MDE. METHODS: We recruited 22 patients with acute MDE, both before and after three months of antidepressant treatment, and 41 healthy volunteers matched by age and smoking status. The participants underwent a clinical assessment (Mini International Neuropsychiatry Interview, Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, Physical and Social Anhedonia scales, Pleasure-Displeasure Scale, an olfactory evaluation (hedonic aspect, familiarity and emotional impact of odors, and a computerized Facial Affect Recognition task. RESULTS: MDE was associated with an olfactory bias concerning hedonic and emotional aspects, including negative olfactory alliesthesia (unpleasant odorants perceived as more unpleasant, facial emotion expression recognition (happy facial expressions, and in part olfactory anhedonia (pleasant odorants perceived as less pleasant. In addition, the results revealed that these impairments represent state markers of MDE, suggesting that the patients recovered the same sensory processing as healthy subjects after antidepressant treatment. DISCUSSION: This study demonstrated that MDE is associated with negative biases toward olfactory perception and the recognition of facial emotional expressions. The link between these two sensory parameters suggests common underlying processes.

  15. Web-based expert system for foundry pollution prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moynihan, Gary P.

    2004-02-01

    Pollution prevention is a complex task. Many small foundries lack the in-house expertise to perform these tasks. Expert systems are a type of computer information system that incorporates artificial intelligence. As noted in the literature, they provide a means of automating specialized expertise. This approach may be further leveraged by implementing the expert system on the internet (or world-wide web). This will allow distribution of the expertise to a variety of geographically-dispersed foundries. The purpose of this research is to develop a prototype web-based expert system to support pollution prevention for the foundry industry. The prototype system identifies potential emissions for a specified process, and also provides recommendations for the prevention of these contaminants. The system is viewed as an initial step toward assisting the foundry industry in better meeting government pollution regulations, as well as improving operating efficiencies within these companies.

  16. Radiological social risk perception: something more than experts/ public discrepancies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prades Lopez, Ana; Gonzalez Reyes, Felisa

    1998-01-01

    One of the most important concerns of the postindustrial societies lies on the specification and quantification of risk, the Risk Assesment. However, the efforts and resources devoted to such goal have not avoided a growing worry about both the environmental conditions and the situations that potentially threaten it, generating an intense social debate about risks. In this framework, discrepancies between experts and public evaluations risks leaded to the study of social Risk perception. Several theoretical scopes have tried to characterize the phenomenon. A worthy conclusion of the empirical studies carried out on this issue is that all of them, experts and public, are influence by some factors which, in turns, affect their risk perception,. Specially striking is the fact that perception of risk among experts is also modulated by qualitative, personal and social factors. Social Risk Perception, through the process of Communication and Social Participation, has been configurated as a critical tool for both risk prevention and management

  17. Bias changing molecule–lead couple and inducing low bias negative differential resistance for electrons acceptor predicted by first-principles study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Min, Y.; Fang, J.H.; Zhong, C.G.; Dong, Z.C.; Zhao, Z.Y.; Zhou, P.X.; Yao, K.L.

    2015-01-01

    A first-principles study of the transport properties of 3,13-dimercaptononacene–6,21-dione molecule sandwiched between two gold leads is reported. The strong effect of negative differential resistance with large peak-to-valley ratio of 710% is present under low bias. We found that bias can change molecule–lead couple and induce low bias negative differential resistance for electrons acceptor, which may promise the potential applications in molecular devices with low-power dissipation in the future. - Highlights: • Acceptor is constructed to negative differential resistor (NDR). • NDR effect is present under low bias. • Bias change molecule–lead couple and induce NDR effect

  18. Expert system verification and validation for nuclear power industry applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naser, J.A.

    1990-01-01

    The potential for the use of expert systems in the nuclear power industry is widely recognized. The benefits of such systems include consistency of reasoning during off-normal situations when humans are under great stress, the reduction of times required to perform certain functions, the prevention of equipment failures through predictive diagnostics, and the retention of human expertise in performing specialized functions. The increased use of expert systems brings with it concerns about their reliability. Difficulties arising from software problems can affect plant safety, reliability, and availability. A joint project between EPRI and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is being initiated to develop a methodology for verification and validation of expert systems for nuclear power applications. This methodology will be tested on existing and developing expert systems. This effort will explore the applicability of conventional verification and validation methodologies to expert systems. The major area of concern will be certification of the knowledge base. This is expected to require new types of verification and validation techniques. A methodology for developing validation scenarios will also be studied

  19. An expert system for sensor data validation and malfunction detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashemi, S.; Hajek, B.K.; Miller, D.W.

    1987-01-01

    Nuclear power plant operation and monitoring in general is a complex task which requires a large number of sensors, alarms and displays. At any instant in time, the operator is required to make a judgment about the state of the plant and to react accordingly. During abnormal situations, operators are further burdened with time constraints. The possibility of an undetected faulty instrumentation line, adds to the complexity of operators' reasoning tasks. Recent work at The Ohio State University Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence Research (LAIR) and the nuclear engineering program has concentrated on the problem of diagnostic expert systems performance and their applicability to the nuclear power plant domain. The authors have also been concerned about the diagnostic expert systems performance when using potentially invalid sensor data. Because of this research, they have developed an expert system that can perform diagnostic problem solving despite the existence of some conflicting data in the domain. This work has resulted in enhancement of a programming tool, CSRL, that allows domain experts to create a diagnostic system that will be to some degree, tolerant of bad data while performing diagnosis. This expert system is described here

  20. Eliciting expert opinion for economic models: an applied example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leal, José; Wordsworth, Sarah; Legood, Rosa; Blair, Edward

    2007-01-01

    Expert opinion is considered as a legitimate source of information for decision-analytic modeling where required data are unavailable. Our objective was to develop a practical computer-based tool for eliciting expert opinion about the shape of the uncertainty distribution around individual model parameters. We first developed a prepilot survey with departmental colleagues to test a number of alternative approaches to eliciting opinions on the shape of the uncertainty distribution around individual parameters. This information was used to develop a survey instrument for an applied clinical example. This involved eliciting opinions from experts to inform a number of parameters involving Bernoulli processes in an economic model evaluating DNA testing for families with a genetic disease, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. The experts were cardiologists, clinical geneticists, and laboratory scientists working with cardiomyopathy patient populations and DNA testing. Our initial prepilot work suggested that the more complex elicitation techniques advocated in the literature were difficult to use in practice. In contrast, our approach achieved a reasonable response rate (50%), provided logical answers, and was generally rated as easy to use by respondents. The computer software user interface permitted graphical feedback throughout the elicitation process. The distributions obtained were incorporated into the model, enabling the use of probabilistic sensitivity analysis. There is clearly a gap in the literature between theoretical elicitation techniques and tools that can be used in applied decision-analytic models. The results of this methodological study are potentially valuable for other decision analysts deriving expert opinion.

  1. Hemispheric biases and the control of visuospatial attention: an ERP study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banich Marie T

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We examined whether individual differences in hemispheric utilization can interact with the intrinsic attentional biases of the cerebral hemispheres. Evidence suggests that the hemispheres have competing biases to direct attention contralaterally, with the left hemisphere (LH having a stronger bias than the right hemisphere. There is also evidence that individuals have characteristic biases to utilize one hemisphere more than the other for processing information, which can induce a bias to direct attention to contralateral space. We predicted that LH-biased individuals would display a strong rightward attentional bias, which would create difficulty in selectively attending to target stimuli in the left visual field (LVF as compared to right in the performance of a bilateral flanker task. Results Consistent with our hypothesis, flanker interference effects were found on the N2c event-related brain potential and error rate for LH-biased individuals in the Attend-LVF condition. The error rate effect was correlated with the degree of hemispheric utilization bias for the LH-Bias group. Conclusion We conclude that hemispheric utilization bias can enhance a hemisphere's contralateral attentional bias, at least for individuals with a LH utilization bias. Hemispheric utilization bias may play an important and largely unrecognized role in visuospatial attention.

  2. The Biases of Thinking Fast and Thinking Slow

    OpenAIRE

    Streeb, Dirk; Chen, Min; Keim, Daniel A.

    2017-01-01

    Visualization is a human-centric process, which is inevitably as- sociated with potential biases in humans’ judgment and decision making. While the discussions on humans’ biases have been heavily influenced the work of Daniel Kahneman as summarized in his book “Thinking, Fast and Slow” [8], there have also been viewpoints in psychology in favor of heuristics (e.g., [6]). In this paper, we present a balanced discourse on the humans’ heuristics and biases as the two sides of the same coin. In p...

  3. Experts' perceptions on the entrepreneurial framework conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Aldina; e Silva, Eliana Costa; Lopes, I. Cristina; Braga, Alexandra; Braga, Vitor

    2017-11-01

    The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor is a large scale database for internationally comparative entrepreneurship. This database includes information of more than 100 countries concerning several aspects of entrepreneurship activities, perceptions, conditions, national and regional policy, among others, in two main sources of primary data: the Adult Population Survey and the National Expert Survey. In the present work the National Expert Survey datasets for 2011, 2012 and 2013 are analyzed with the purpose of studying the effects of different type of entrepreneurship expert specialization on the perceptions about the Entrepreneurial Framework Conditions (EFCs). The results of the multivariate analysis of variance for the 2013 data show significant differences of the entrepreneurship experts when compared the 2011 and 2012 surveys. For the 2013 data entrepreneur experts are less favorable then most of the other experts to the EFCs.

  4. Expert system technology for nondestructive waste assay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.

    1998-01-01

    Nondestructive assay waste characterization data generated for use in the National TRU Program must be of known and demonstrable quality. Each measurement is required to receive an independent technical review by a qualified expert. An expert system prototype has been developed to automate waste NDA data review of a passive/active neutron drum counter system. The expert system is designed to yield a confidence rating regarding measurement validity. Expert system rules are derived from data in a process involving data clustering, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms. Expert system performance is assessed against confidence assignments elicited from waste NDA domain experts. Performance levels varied for the active, passive shielded, and passive system assay modes of the drum counter system, ranging from 78% to 94% correct classifications

  5. Perceptual expertise: can sensorimotor experience change holistic processing and left-side bias?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tso, Ricky Van-yip; Au, Terry Kit-fong; Hsiao, Janet Hui-wen

    2014-09-01

    Holistic processing and left-side bias are both behavioral markers of expert face recognition. By contrast, expert recognition of characters in Chinese orthography involves left-side bias but reduced holistic processing, although faces and Chinese characters share many visual properties. Here, we examined whether this reduction in holistic processing of Chinese characters can be better explained by writing experience than by reading experience. Compared with Chinese nonreaders, Chinese readers who had limited writing experience showed increased holistic processing, whereas Chinese readers who could write characters fluently showed reduced holistic processing. This result suggests that writing and sensorimotor experience can modulate holistic-processing effects and that the reduced holistic processing observed in expert Chinese readers may depend mostly on writing experience. However, both expert writers and writers with limited experience showed similarly stronger left-side bias than novices did in processing mirror-symmetric Chinese characters; left-side bias may therefore be a robust expertise marker for object recognition that is uninfluenced by sensorimotor experience. © The Author(s) 2014.

  6. Electrode and limiter biasing experiments on the tokamak ISTTOK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, C.; Figueiredo, H.; Cabral, J.A.C.; Nedzelsky, I.; Varandas, C.A.F.

    2003-01-01

    In this contribution limiter and electrode biasing experiments are compared, in particular in what concerns their effects on the edge plasma parameters. For electrode AC bias a substantial increase (>50%) in the average plasma density is observed with positive voltage, without significant changes in the edge density, leading to steeper profiles. The ratio n e /Hα also increases significantly (>20%), indicating an improvement in gross particle confinement. The plasma potential profile is strongly modified as both the edge E r and its shear increase significantly. For positive limiter bias an increase in the average plasma density and the radiation losses is observed, resulting in almost no modification, or a slight, in particle confinement. Preliminary results of simultaneous electrode and limiter bias experiments show that the control of the plasma potential profile is very limited, since negative voltages do not modify the plasma parameters significantly. (author)

  7. Context effects and observer bias--implications for forensic odontology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, Mark; Taylor, Jane; Blenkin, Matt

    2012-01-01

    Psychologists have long recognized the effects of contextual and extraneous information on decision making. Such information renders the subject susceptible to both motivational and cognitive bias; yet, it is difficult to assess the extent to which these influence forensic odontologists opinions as there have been no studies to date on this subject. This article explores the various types of contextual effects and biasing influences that potentially impact on the analysis of bitemarks in forensic odontology. It appears that the current practice of bitemark analysis is rich in sources of potentially biasing influences. In addition to the fundamental recognition that some form of bias is likely to exist, ways in which these should be minimized include: separation of the collection and analysis phases; limiting the amount of contextual information available to the odontologist responsible for the analysis; and ensuring that evidence that is ambiguous or of poor quality is identified as such prior to analysis. © 2011 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  8. Preferences, country bias, and international trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Roy (Santanu); J.M.A. Viaene (Jean-Marie)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractAnalyzes international trade where consumer preferences exhibit country bias. Why country biases arise; How trade can occur in the presence of country bias; Implication for the pattern of trade and specialization.

  9. Expert system for fast reactor diagnostic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parcy, J.P.

    1982-09-01

    A general description of expert systems is given. The operation of a fast reactor is reviewed. The expert system to the diagnosis of breakdowns limited to the reactor core. The structure of the system is described: specification of the diagnostics; structure of the data bank and evaluation of the rules; specification of the prediagnostics and evaluation; explanation of the diagnostics; time evolution of the system; comparison with other expert systems. Applications to some cases of faults are finally presented [fr

  10. Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernysheva, T. Y.; Korchuganova, M. A.; Borisov, V. V.; Min'kov, S. L.

    2016-04-01

    Revealing experts’ competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

  11. WINE ADVISOR EXPERT SYSTEM USING DECISION RULES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinuca Elena Claudia

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In this article I focus on developing an expert system for advising the choice of wine that best matches a specific occasion. An expert system is a computer application that performs a task that would be performed by a human expert. The implementation is done using Delphi programming language. I used to represent the knowledge bases a set of rules. The rules are of type IF THEN ELSE rules, decision rules based on different important wine features.

  12. Succession planning for technical experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirk, Bernadette Lugue; Cain, Ronald A.; Dewji, Shaheen A.; Agreda, Carla L.

    2017-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for identifying, evaluating, and mitigating the loss of key technical skills at nuclear operations facilities. The methodology can be adapted for application within regulatory authorities and research and development organizations, and can be directly applied by international engagement partners of the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The resultant product will be of direct benefit to two types of NNSA missions: (1) domestic human capital development programs tasked to provide focused technical expertise to succeed an aging nuclear operations workforce, and (2) international safeguards programs charged with maintaining operational safeguards for developing/existing nuclear power program in nations where minimal available resources must be used effectively. This report considers succession planning and the critical skills necessary to meet an institution’s goals and mission. Closely tied to succession planning are knowledge management and mentorship. In considering succession planning, critical skill sets are identified and are greatly dependent on the subject matter expert in question. This report also provides examples of critical skills that are job specific.

  13. Succession planning for technical experts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirk, Bernadette Lugue [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cain, Ronald A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Dewji, Shaheen A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Agreda, Carla L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-07-01

    This report describes a methodology for identifying, evaluating, and mitigating the loss of key technical skills at nuclear operations facilities. The methodology can be adapted for application within regulatory authorities and research and development organizations, and can be directly applied by international engagement partners of the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The resultant product will be of direct benefit to two types of NNSA missions: (1) domestic human capital development programs tasked to provide focused technical expertise to succeed an aging nuclear operations workforce, and (2) international safeguards programs charged with maintaining operational safeguards for developing/existing nuclear power program in nations where minimal available resources must be used effectively. This report considers succession planning and the critical skills necessary to meet an institution’s goals and mission. Closely tied to succession planning are knowledge management and mentorship. In considering succession planning, critical skill sets are identified and are greatly dependent on the subject matter expert in question. This report also provides examples of critical skills that are job specific.

  14. Prediabetes in Colombia: Expert Consensus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calderón, Carlos; Castillo, Jorge; Escobar, Iván Darío; Melgarejo, Enrique; Parra, Gustavo Adolfo

    2017-01-01

    Abstract The prevalence of Prediabetes in Colombia is high, and despite being recognized and categorized in the main Medical Guidelines and included in the International Classification of Diseases in Colombia, knowledge and awareness of it is limited amongst healthcare professionals and in the community. Our expert group recommends that educational programs emphasize a global approach to risk which includes a recognition of the importance of prediabetes and its evaluation along with and other risk factors such as a family history of DM2, overweight and obesity, dislipidemia and hypertension. Studies conducted in Colombia demonstrate the value of the FINDRIS questionnaire as a tool to identify subjects at risk of prediabetes and DM2, and we recommend that it should be systematic applied throughout the country as part of government policy. Prediabetes progresses to DM2 at an annual rate of 10%, but it has also been shown that prediabetes is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular outcomes. On this basis, the Committee recommends that once prediabetes is detected and diagnosed, immediate management of the disease begins through lifestyle changes, with follow up assessments performed at 3 and 6 months. If the patient does not respond with a weight loss of at least 5% and if the HbA1C values ​​are not normalized, pharmacological management should be initiated with a metformin dose of 500 mg / day, increasing up to 1,500 - 1,700 mg / day, according to tolerance. PMID:29662261

  15. Expert system development (ESD) shell

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Padmini, S.; Diwakar, M.P.; Rathode, N.C.; Bairi, B.R.

    1991-01-01

    An Expert System Development (ESD) Shell design implementation is desribed in detail. The shell provides high-level generic facilities for Knowledge Representation (KR) and inferencing and tools for developing user interfaces. Powerful set of tools in the shell relieves much of the programming burden in the ES development. The shell is written in PROLOG under IBM PC/AT. KR facilities are based on two very powerful formalisms namely, frames and rules. Inference Engine (IE) draws most of its power from unification and backward reasoning strategy in PROLOG. This basic mechanism is enhanced further by incorporating both forward and backward chaining of rules and frame-based inferencing. Overall programming style integrates multiple paradigms including logic, object oriented, access-oriented and imperative programming. This permits ES designer a lot of flexibility in organizing inference control. Creation and maintainance of knowledge base is a major activity. The shell, therefore, provides number of facilities to simplify these tasks. Shell design also takes note of the fact that final success of any system depends on end-user satisfaction and hence provides features to build use-friendly interfaces. The shell also provides a set of interfacing predicates so that it can be embedded within any PROLOG program to incorporate functionalilty of the shell in the user program. (author). 10 refs., 8 figs

  16. Prediabetes in Colombia: Expert Consensus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Jaramillo, Patricio; Calderón, Carlos; Castillo, Jorge; Escobar, Iván Darío; Melgarejo, Enrique; Parra, Gustavo Adolfo

    2017-12-30

    The prevalence of Prediabetes in Colombia is high, and despite being recognized and categorized in the main Medical Guidelines and included in the International Classification of Diseases in Colombia, knowledge and awareness of it is limited amongst healthcare professionals and in the community. Our expert group recommends that educational programs emphasize a global approach to risk which includes a recognition of the importance of prediabetes and its evaluation along with and other risk factors such as a family history of DM2, overweight and obesity, dislipidemia and hypertension. Studies conducted in Colombia demonstrate the value of the FINDRIS questionnaire as a tool to identify subjects at risk of prediabetes and DM2, and we recommend that it should be systematic applied throughout the country as part of government policy. Prediabetes progresses to DM2 at an annual rate of 10%, but it has also been shown that prediabetes is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular outcomes. On this basis, the Committee recommends that once prediabetes is detected and diagnosed, immediate management of the disease begins through lifestyle changes, with follow up assessments performed at 3 and 6 months. If the patient does not respond with a weight loss of at least 5% and if the HbA1C values ​​are not normalized, pharmacological management should be initiated with a metformin dose of 500 mg / day, increasing up to 1,500 - 1,700 mg / day, according to tolerance.

  17. Operational expert system applications in Europe

    CERN Document Server

    Zarri, Gian Piero

    1992-01-01

    Operational Expert System Applications in Europe describes the representative case studies of the operational expert systems (ESs) that are used in Europe.This compilation provides examples of operational ES that are realized in 10 different European countries, including countries not usually examined in the standard reviews of the field.This book discusses the decision support system using several artificial intelligence tools; expert systems for fault diagnosis on computerized numerical control (CNC) machines; and expert consultation system for personal portfolio management. The failure prob

  18. Expert database system for quality control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Anne J.; Li, Zhi-Cheng

    1993-09-01

    There are more competitors today. Markets are not homogeneous they are fragmented into increasingly focused niches requiring greater flexibility in the product mix shorter manufacturing production runs and above allhigher quality. In this paper the author identified a real-time expert system as a way to improve plantwide quality management. The quality control expert database system (QCEDS) by integrating knowledge of experts in operations quality management and computer systems use all information relevant to quality managementfacts as well as rulesto determine if a product meets quality standards. Keywords: expert system quality control data base

  19. BWR recirculation pump diagnostic expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiang, S.C.; Morimoto, C.N.; Torres, M.R.

    2004-01-01

    At General Electric (GE), an on-line expert system to support maintenance decisions for BWR recirculation pumps for nuclear power plants has been developed. This diagnostic expert system is an interactive on-line system that furnishes diagnostic information concerning BWR recirculation pump operational problems. It effectively provides the recirculation pump diagnostic expertise in the plant control room continuously 24 hours a day. The expert system is interfaced to an on-line monitoring system, which uses existing plant sensors to acquire non-safety related data in real time. The expert system correlates and evaluates process data and vibration data by applying expert rules to determine the condition of a BWR recirculation pump system by applying knowledge based rules. Any diagnosis will be automatically displayed, indicating which pump may have a problem, the category of the problem, and the degree of concern expressed by the validity index and color hierarchy. The rules incorporate the expert knowledge from various technical sources such as plant experience, engineering principles, and published reports. These rules are installed in IF-THEN formats and the resulting truth values are also expressed in fuzzy terms and a certainty factor called a validity index. This GE Recirculation Pump Expert System uses industry-standard software, hardware, and network access to provide flexible interfaces with other possible data acquisition systems. Gensym G2 Real-Time Expert System is used for the expert shell and provides the graphical user interface, knowledge base, and inference engine capabilities. (author)

  20. Cooperative expert system reasoning for waste remediations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohn, S.J.; Pennock, K.A.; Franklin, A.L.

    1991-12-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is facing a large task in completing Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies (RI/FS) for hazardous waste sites across the nation. One of the primary objectives of an RI/FS is the specification of viable sequences of technology treatment trains which can provide implementable site solutions. We present a methodology which integrates expert system technology within an object-oriented framework to create a cooperative reasoning system designed to provide a comprehensive list of these implementable solutions. The system accomplishes its goal of specifying technology trains by utilizing a ''team'' of expert system objects. The system distributes the problem solving among the individual expert objects, and then coordinates the combination of individual decisions into a joint solution. Each expert object possesses the knowledge of an expert in a particular technology. An expert object can examine the parameters and characteristics of the waste site, seek information and support from other expert objects, and then make decisions concerning its own applicability. This methodology has at least two primary benefits. First, the creation of multiple expert objects provides a more direct mapping from the actual process to a software system, making the system easier to build. Second, the distribution of the inferencing among a number of loosely connected expert objects allows for a more robust and maintainable final product

  1. Liquid low level waste management expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrada, J.J.; Abraham, T.J.; Jackson, J.R.

    1991-01-01

    An expert system has been developed as part of a new initiative for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) systems analysis program. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem, as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. 4 refs., 9 figs

  2. Effects of Cognitive Bias Modification Training via Smartphones

    OpenAIRE

    Ranming Yang; Ranming Yang; Lixia Cui; Feng Li; Jing Xiao; Qin Zhang; Tian P. S. Oei; Tian P. S. Oei

    2017-01-01

    Background and Objectives: Negative cognitive biases have been linked to anxiety and mood problems. Accumulated data from laboratory studies show that positive and negative interpretation styles with accompanying changes in mood can be induced through cognitive bias modification (CBM) paradigms. Despite the therapeutic potential of positive training effects, few studies have explored training paradigms administered via smartphones. The current study aimed to compare the effectiveness of three...

  3. Rule base system in developing groundwater pollution expert system: predicting model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mongkon Ta-oun; Mohamed Daud; Mohd Zohadie Bardaie; Shamshuddin Jusop

    2000-01-01

    New techniques are now available for use in the protection of the environment. One of these techniques is the use of expert system for prediction groundwater pollution potential. Groundwater Pollution Expert system (GWPES) rules are a collection of principles and procedures used to know the comprehension of groundwater pollution prediction. The rules of groundwater pollution expert system in the form of questions, choice, radio-box, slide rule, button or frame are translated in to IF-THEN rule. The rules including of variables, types, domains and descriptions were used by the function of wxCLIPS (C Language Integrate Production System) expert system shell. (author)

  4. Experts in Fast-Ball Sports Reduce Anticipation Timing Cost by Developing Inhibitory Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamoto, Hiroki; Mori, Shiro

    2012-01-01

    The present study was conducted to examine the relationship between expertise in movement correction and rate of movement reprogramming within limited time periods, and to clarify the specific cognitive processes regarding superior reprogramming ability in experts. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded in baseball experts (n = 7) and…

  5. Approach-Induced Biases in Human Information Sampling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurence T Hunt

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Information sampling is often biased towards seeking evidence that confirms one's prior beliefs. Despite such biases being a pervasive feature of human behavior, their underlying causes remain unclear. Many accounts of these biases appeal to limitations of human hypothesis testing and cognition, de facto evoking notions of bounded rationality, but neglect more basic aspects of behavioral control. Here, we investigated a potential role for Pavlovian approach in biasing which information humans will choose to sample. We collected a large novel dataset from 32,445 human subjects, making over 3 million decisions, who played a gambling task designed to measure the latent causes and extent of information-sampling biases. We identified three novel approach-related biases, formalized by comparing subject behavior to a dynamic programming model of optimal information gathering. These biases reflected the amount of information sampled ("positive evidence approach", the selection of which information to sample ("sampling the favorite", and the interaction between information sampling and subsequent choices ("rejecting unsampled options". The prevalence of all three biases was related to a Pavlovian approach-avoid parameter quantified within an entirely independent economic decision task. Our large dataset also revealed that individual differences in the amount of information gathered are a stable trait across multiple gameplays and can be related to demographic measures, including age and educational attainment. As well as revealing limitations in cognitive processing, our findings suggest information sampling biases reflect the expression of primitive, yet potentially ecologically adaptive, behavioral repertoires. One such behavior is sampling from options that will eventually be chosen, even when other sources of information are more pertinent for guiding future action.

  6. New Trends in Magnetic Exchange Bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mougin, Alexandra; Mangin, Stéphane; Bobo, Jean-Francois; Loidl, Alois

    2005-05-01

    -of-plane exchange bias, depending on the field cooling direction. This is of particular interest since it allows probing of the three-dimensional spin structure of the AF layer. The interface magnetic configuration is extremely important in the perpendicular geometry, as the short-range exchange coupling competes with a long-range dipolar interaction; the induced uniaxial anisotropy must overcome the demagnetization energy to establish perpendicular anisotropy films. Those new studies are of primary importance for the magnetic media industry as perpendicular recording exhibits potential for strongly increased storage densities. 3. Parameters tuning exchange bias in polycrystalline samples and magnetic configurations: Different parameters can be used to tune the exchange bias coupling in polycrystalline samples similar to those used in devices. Particularly fascinating aspects are the questions of the appearance of exchange bias or coercivity in ferromagnet/antiferromagnet heterostructures, and its relation to magnetic configurations formed on either side of the interface. Several papers report on either growth choices or post preparation treatments that enable tuning of the exchange bias in bilayers. The additional complexity and novel features of the exchange coupled interface make the problem particularly rich. 4. Dynamics and magnetization reversal: Linear response experiments, such as ferromagnetic resonance, have been used with great success to identify interface, surface anisotropies and interlayer exchange in multilayer systems. The exchange bias structure is particularly well suited to study because interface driven changes in the spin wave frequencies in the ferromagnet can be readily related to interlayer exchange and anisotropy parameters associated with the antiferromagnet. Because the exchange bias is intimately connected with details of the magnetization process during reversal and the subsequent formation of hysteresis, considerations of time dependence and

  7. Gender-biased perceptions of important ecology articles

    OpenAIRE

    Courchamp, Franck; Bradshaw, Corey

    2017-01-01

    Gender bias is still unfortunately rife in the sciences, and men co-author most articles (> 70%) in ecology. Whether ecologists subconsciously rate the quality of their peers' work more favourably if men are the dominant co-authors is still unclear. To test this hypothesis, we examined how expert ecologists ranked important ecology articles based on a previously compiled list. Women proposed articles with a higher average proportion of women co-authors (0.18) than did men proposers (0.07)....

  8. Considerations in development of expert systems for real-time space applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murugesan, S.

    1988-01-01

    Over the years, demand on space systems has increased tremendously and this trend will continue for the near future. Enhanced capabilities of space systems, however, can only be met with increased complexity and sophistication of onboard and ground systems. Artificial Intelligence and expert system techniques have great potential in space applications. Expert systems could facilitate autonomous decision making, improve in-orbit fault diagnosis and repair, enhance performance and reduce reliance on ground support. However, real-time expert systems, unlike conventional off-line consultative systems, have to satisfy certain special stringent requirements before they could be used for onboard space applications. Challenging and interesting new environments are faced while developing expert system space applications. This paper discusses the special characteristics, requirements and typical life cycle issues for onboard expert systems. Further, it also describes considerations in design, development, and implementation which are particularly important to real-time expert systems for space applications.

  9. Hilar cholangiocarcinoma: expert consensus statement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansour, John C; Aloia, Thomas A; Crane, Christopher H; Heimbach, Julie K; Nagino, Masato; Vauthey, Jean-Nicolas

    2015-08-01

    An American Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association (AHPBA)-sponsored consensus meeting of expert panellists met on 15 January 2014 to review current evidence on the management of hilar cholangiocarcinoma in order to establish practice guidelines and to agree consensus statements. It was established that the treatment of patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma requires a coordinated, multidisciplinary approach to optimize the chances for both durable survival and effective palliation. An adequate diagnostic and staging work-up includes high-quality cross-sectional imaging; however, pathologic confirmation is not required prior to resection or initiation of a liver transplant trimodal treatment protocol. The ideal treatment for suitable patients with resectable hilar malignancy is resection of the intra- and extrahepatic bile ducts, as well as resection of the involved ipsilateral liver. Preoperative biliary drainage is best achieved with percutaneous transhepatic approaches and may be indicated for patients with cholangitis, malnutrition or hepatic insufficiency. Portal vein embolization is a safe and effective strategy for increasing the future liver remnant (FLR) and is particularly useful for patients with an FLR of hilar cholangiocarcinoma should be evaluated for a standard trimodal protocol incorporating external beam and endoluminal radiation therapy, systemic chemotherapy and liver transplantation. Post-resection chemoradiation should be offered to patients who show high-risk features on surgical pathology. Chemoradiation is also recommended for patients with locally advanced, unresectable hilar cancers. For patients with locally recurrent or metastatic hilar cholangiocarcinoma, first-line chemotherapy with gemcitabine and cisplatin is recommended based on multiple Phase II trials and a large randomized controlled trial including a heterogeneous population of patients with biliary cancers. © 2015 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association.

  10. Managing Disagreement: A Defense of "Regime Bias"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabl, Andrew

    2011-02-01

    Stein Ringen's theory of democratic purpose cannot do the work expected of it. Ringen's own criteria oscillate between being too vague to be useful (i.e. "freedom") or, when specified more fully, conflicting, so that almost all democracies will seem to be potentially at cross-purposes with themselves rather than their purposes or sub-purposes being mutually reinforcing. This reflects a bigger and more theoretical problem. Disagreement about the purpose of democracy is built into democracy itself. The whole point of many (perhaps all) of our democratic institutions is to arrive at conditionally legitimate decisions in spite of such disagreement. So-called regime bias, i.e. the tendency to assess democracies according to the form and stability of their institutions rather than their results or their ability to serve certain purposes, does not in fact arise from bias. It arises on the contrary from a determination to avoid the bias inherent in giving some-inevitably partisan-ideals of what democracies should do pride of place over others in a scheme of measurement or evaluation. And even a regime-based definition of democracy must itself make simplifying assumptions that elide possible normative controversies over how the democratic game is best played. Vindicating one's preferred set of democratic ideals against alternatives is a completely legitimate enterprise and lends richness to debates within and across democracies. But it is an inherently ideological and political enterprise, not a neutral or scholarly one.

  11. Sampling of temporal networks: Methods and biases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, Luis E. C.; Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

    2017-11-01

    Temporal networks have been increasingly used to model a diversity of systems that evolve in time; for example, human contact structures over which dynamic processes such as epidemics take place. A fundamental aspect of real-life networks is that they are sampled within temporal and spatial frames. Furthermore, one might wish to subsample networks to reduce their size for better visualization or to perform computationally intensive simulations. The sampling method may affect the network structure and thus caution is necessary to generalize results based on samples. In this paper, we study four sampling strategies applied to a variety of real-life temporal networks. We quantify the biases generated by each sampling strategy on a number of relevant statistics such as link activity, temporal paths and epidemic spread. We find that some biases are common in a variety of networks and statistics, but one strategy, uniform sampling of nodes, shows improved performance in most scenarios. Given the particularities of temporal network data and the variety of network structures, we recommend that the choice of sampling methods be problem oriented to minimize the potential biases for the specific research questions on hand. Our results help researchers to better design network data collection protocols and to understand the limitations of sampled temporal network data.

  12. Expert Systems: An Overview for Teacher-Librarians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orwig, Gary; Barron, Ann

    1992-01-01

    Provides an overview of expert systems for teacher librarians. Highlights include artificial intelligence and expert systems; the development of the MYCIN medical expert system; rule-based expert systems; the use of expert system shells to develop a specific system; and how to select an appropriate application for an expert system. (11 references)…

  13. 20 CFR 405.10 - Medical and Vocational Expert System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Medical and Vocational Expert System. 405.10... Vocational Expert System. (a) General. The Medical and Vocational Expert System is comprised of the Medical... Vocational Expert System. (3) Experts who provide evidence at your request. Experts whom you ask to provide...

  14. Strategies to Prevent or Reduce Gender Bias in Peer Review of Research Grants: A Rapid Scoping Review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea C Tricco

    Full Text Available To review the literature on strategies implemented or identified to prevent or reduce gender bias in peer review of research grants.Studies of any type of qualitative or quantitative design examining interventions to reduce or prevent gender bias during the peer review of health-related research grants were included. Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, Education Resources Information Center (ERIC, PsycINFO, Joanna Briggs, the Cochrane Library, Evidence Based Medicine (EBM Reviews, and the Campbell Library were searched from 2005 to April 2016. A search for grey (i.e., difficult to locate or unpublished literature was conducted and experts in the field were consulted to identify additional potentially relevant articles. Two individuals screened titles and abstracts, full-text articles, and abstracted data with discrepancies resolved by a third person consistently.After screening 5524 citations and 170 full-text articles, one article evaluating gender-blinding of grant applications using an uncontrolled before-after study design was included. In this study, 891 applications for long-term fellowships in 2006 were included and 47% of the applicants were women. These were scored by 13 peer reviewers (38% were women. The intervention included eliminating references to gender from the applications, letters of recommendations, and interview reports that were sent to the committee members for evaluation. The proportion of successful applications led by women did not change with gender-blinding, although the number of successful applications that were led by men increased slightly.There is limited research on interventions to mitigate gender bias in the peer review of grants. Only one study was identified and no difference in the proportion of women who were successful in receiving grant funding was observed. Our results suggest that interventions to prevent gender bias should be adapted and tested in the context of grant peer review to

  15. Numerical value biases sound localization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golob, Edward J; Lewald, Jörg; Getzmann, Stephan; Mock, Jeffrey R

    2017-12-08

    Speech recognition starts with representations of basic acoustic perceptual features and ends by categorizing the sound based on long-term memory for word meaning. However, little is known about whether the reverse pattern of lexical influences on basic perception can occur. We tested for a lexical influence on auditory spatial perception by having subjects make spatial judgments of number stimuli. Four experiments used pointing or left/right 2-alternative forced choice tasks to examine perceptual judgments of sound location as a function of digit magnitude (1-9). The main finding was that for stimuli presented near the median plane there was a linear left-to-right bias for localizing smaller-to-larger numbers. At lateral locations there was a central-eccentric location bias in the pointing task, and either a bias restricted to the smaller numbers (left side) or no significant number bias (right side). Prior number location also biased subsequent number judgments towards the opposite side. Findings support a lexical influence on auditory spatial perception, with a linear mapping near midline and more complex relations at lateral locations. Results may reflect coding of dedicated spatial channels, with two representing lateral positions in each hemispace, and the midline area represented by either their overlap or a separate third channel.

  16. Automation bias: empirical results assessing influencing factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goddard, Kate; Roudsari, Abdul; Wyatt, Jeremy C

    2014-05-01

    To investigate the rate of automation bias - the propensity of people to over rely on automated advice and the factors associated with it. Tested factors were attitudinal - trust and confidence, non-attitudinal - decision support experience and clinical experience, and environmental - task difficulty. The paradigm of simulated decision support advice within a prescribing context was used. The study employed within participant before-after design, whereby 26 UK NHS General Practitioners were shown 20 hypothetical prescribing scenarios with prevalidated correct and incorrect answers - advice was incorrect in 6 scenarios. They were asked to prescribe for each case, followed by being shown simulated advice. Participants were then asked whether they wished to change their prescription, and the post-advice prescription was recorded. Rate of overall decision switching was captured. Automation bias was measured by negative consultations - correct to incorrect prescription switching. Participants changed prescriptions in 22.5% of scenarios. The pre-advice accuracy rate of the clinicians was 50.38%, which improved to 58.27% post-advice. The CDSS improved the decision accuracy in 13.1% of prescribing cases. The rate of automation bias, as measured by decision switches from correct pre-advice, to incorrect post-advice was 5.2% of all cases - a net improvement of 8%. More immediate factors such as trust in the specific CDSS, decision confidence, and task difficulty influenced rate of decision switching. Lower clinical experience was associated with more decision switching. Age, DSS experience and trust in CDSS generally were not significantly associated with decision switching. This study adds to the literature surrounding automation bias in terms of its potential frequency and influencing factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... CFR PART 191 DISPOSAL REGULATIONS Compliance Certification and Re-certification General Requirements... experts (by name and employer) involved in any expert judgment elicitation processes used to support the... judgment elicitation processes and the reasoning behind those results. Documentation of interviews used to...

  18. A law for nuclear experts only

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, H.

    1980-01-01

    The Federal Ministry of the Interior is preparing an ordinance on expert consultants under the Atomic Energy Act which, among other topics, is to include legal norms for the criteria to be met by experts in terms of non-partisanship, training, capabilities, technical equipment and cooperation in expert organizations of members of various scientific and technical disciplines. A summary of general criteria relating to the qualification, selection and status of experts called in by the legislative and executive branches and by courts of law, which could be organized as a series of guidelines without any original qualities of legal norms, could be recommended in view of the increasing quantitative and qualitative importance of experts. However, passing an ordinance merely fixing and putting into concrete terms the image of an 'expert under the Atomic Energy Act' is intolerable, because the status of scientific and technical experts by far extends beyond the field of nuclear law in our industrial society characterized by a far reaching division of labor. Weak points in the organization of expert services are not confined to technology or nuclear power. Separate rules establishing legal norms are not convincing also for reasons of technology policy and legal policy as well as for those of social psychology and practice. (orig.) 891 HP/orig. 892 MKO [de

  19. Tropospheric ozone. Formation, properties, effects. Expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elstner, E.F.

    1996-01-01

    The formation and dispersion of tropospheric ozone are discussed only marginally in this expert opinion; the key interest is in the effects of ground level ozone on plants, animals, and humans. The expert opinion is based on an analysis of the available scientific publications. (orig./MG) [de

  20. TU Delft expert judgment data base

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooke, Roger M.; Goossens, Louis L.H.J.

    2008-01-01

    We review the applications of structured expert judgment uncertainty quantification using the 'classical model' developed at the Delft University of Technology over the last 17 years [Cooke RM. Experts in uncertainty. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1991; Expert judgment study on atmospheric dispersion and deposition. Report Faculty of Technical Mathematics and Informatics No.01-81, Delft University of Technology; 1991]. These involve 45 expert panels, performed under contract with problem owners who reviewed and approved the results. With a few exceptions, all these applications involved the use of seed variables; that is, variables from the experts' area of expertise for which the true values are available post hoc. Seed variables are used to (1) measure expert performance, (2) enable performance-based weighted combination of experts' distributions, and (3) evaluate and hopefully validate the resulting combination or 'decision maker'. This article reviews the classical model for structured expert judgment and the performance measures, reviews applications, comparing performance-based decision makers with 'equal weight' decision makers, and collects some lessons learned

  1. An Expert System for Designing Fire Prescriptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth Reinhardt

    1987-01-01

    Managers use prescribed fire to accomplish a variety of resource objectives. The knowledge needed to design successful prescriptions is both quantitative and qualitative. Some of it is available through publications and computer programs, but much of the knowledge of expert practitioners has never been collected or published. An expert system being developed at the,...

  2. Expert group formation using facility location analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neshati, M.; Beigy, H.; Hiemstra, Djoerd

    In this paper, we propose an optimization framework to retrieve an optimal group of experts to perform a multi-aspect task. While a diverse set of skills are needed to perform a multi-aspect task, the group of assigned experts should be able to collectively cover all these required skills. We

  3. Expert group formation using facility location analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neshati, Mahmood; Beigy, Hamid; Hiemstra, Djoerd

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we propose an optimization framework to retrieve an optimal group of experts to perform a multi-aspect task. While a diverse set of skills are needed to perform a multi-aspect task, the group of assigned experts should be able to collectively cover all these required skills. We

  4. Counseling, Artificial Intelligence, and Expert Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illovsky, Michael E.

    1994-01-01

    Considers the use of artificial intelligence and expert systems in counseling. Limitations are explored; candidates for counseling versus those for expert systems are discussed; programming considerations are reviewed; and techniques for dealing with rational, nonrational, and irrational thoughts and feelings are described. (Contains 46…

  5. The assessment of argumentation from expert opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagemans, J.H.M.

    2011-01-01

    In this contribution, I will develop a comprehensive tool for the reconstruction and evaluation of argumentation from expert opinion. This is done by analyzing and then combining two dialectical accounts of this type of argumentation. Walton’s account of the ‘appeal to expert opinion’ provides a

  6. Expert system technology for the military

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franklin, J.E.; Carmody, C.L.; Buteau, B.L.; Keller, K.; Levitt, T.S.

    1988-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the applications of expert systems to complex military problems. A brief description of needs for expert systems in the military arena is given. A short tutorial on some of the elements of an expert system is found in Appendix I. An important aspect of expert systems concerns using uncertain information and ill-defined procedures. Many of the general techniques of dealing with uncertainty are described in Appendix II. These techniques include Bayesian certainty factors, Dempster-Shafer theory of uncertainty, and Zadeh's fuzzy set theory. The major portion of the paper addresses specific expert system examples such as resource allocation, identification of radar images, maintenance and troubleshooting of electronic equipment, and the interpretation and understanding of radar images. Extensions of expert systems to incorporate learning are examined in the context of military intelligence to determine the disposition, location, and intention of the adversary. The final application involves the use of distributed communicating cooperating expert systems for battle management. Finally, the future of expert systems and their evolving capabilities are discussed

  7. On the Borders of Harmful and Helpful Beauty Biases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Agthe

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Research with European Caucasian samples demonstrates that attractiveness-based biases in social evaluation depend on the constellation of the sex of the evaluator and the sex of the target: Whereas people generally show positive biases toward attractive opposite-sex persons, they show less positive or even negative biases toward attractive same-sex persons. By examining these biases both within and between different ethnicities, the current studies provide new evidence for both the generalizability and the specificity of these attractiveness-based social perception biases. Examining within-ethnicity effects, Study 1 is the first to demonstrate that samples from diverse ethnic backgrounds parallel the finding of European Caucasian samples: The advantageous or adverse effects of attractiveness depend on the gender constellation of the evaluator and the evaluated person. Examining between-ethnicity effects, Study 2 found that these attractiveness-based biases emerge almost exclusively toward targets of the evaluator’s own ethnic background; these biases were reduced or eliminated for cross-ethnicity evaluations and interaction intentions. We discuss these findings in light of evolutionary principles and reflect on potential interactions between culture and evolved cognitive mechanisms.

  8. Environmental policy. 2000 environmental expert opinion of the Council of Experimental Experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-05-01

    The reorientation of energy policy is a key issue. The Council of Environmental Experts considers the further use of atomic energy to be irresponsible and recommends a new orientation. Recommendations are made on ecology-centered taxation. Critical comments are made in the context of conservation of nature, where many species of plants and animals still continue to be endangered. The conservation programme of the Federal government, which also comprises a system of large, interconnected biotopes on 10% of Germany's total surface, is approved, and the potential contribution of sustainable agricultural and forestry policy is discussed in a separate chapter. Further subjects discussed are recycling and waste management, protection of water and soil, air pollution abatement, health protection and genetic engineering. The environmental aspects of Eastern European states becoming EC members are gone into in particular. The network of Europen Environmental Councils, for which the German Council of Environmental Experts currently acts as a coordinator, makes intensive efforts to improve environmental counselling in these states [de

  9. Expert system for estimating LWR plutonium production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandquist, G.M.

    1988-01-01

    An Artificial Intelligence-Expert System called APES (Analysis of Proliferation by Expert System) has been developed and tested to permit a non proliferation expert to evaluate the capability and capacity of a specified LWR reactor and PUREX reprocessing system for producing and separating plutonium even when system information may be limited and uncertain. APES employs an expert system coded in LISP and based upon an HP-RL (Hewlett Packard-Representational Language) Expert System Shell. The user I/O interface communicates with a blackboard and the knowledge base which contains the quantitative models required to describe the reactor, selected fission product production and radioactive decay processes, Purex reprocessing and ancillary knowledge

  10. Expert Evidence and International Criminal Justice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appazov, Artur

    The book is a comprehensive narration of the use of expertise in international criminal trials offering reflection on standards concerning the quality and presentation of expert evidence. It analyzes and critiques the rules governing expert evidence in international criminal trials...... and the strategies employed by counsel and courts relying upon expert evidence and challenges that courts face determining its reliability. In particular, the author considers how the procedural and evidentiary architecture of international criminal courts and tribunals influences the courts' ability to meaningfully...... incorporate expert evidence into the rational fact-finding process. The book provides analysis of the unique properties of expert evidence as compared with other forms of evidence and the challenges that these properties present for fact-finding in international criminal trials. It draws conclusions about...

  11. Contextual Factors for Finding Similar Experts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hofmann, Katja; Balog, Krisztian; Bogers, Toine

    2010-01-01

    -seeking models, are rarely taken into account. In this article, we extend content-based expert-finding approaches with contextual factors that have been found to influence human expert finding. We focus on a task of science communicators in a knowledge-intensive environment, the task of finding similar experts......, given an example expert. Our approach combines expertise-seeking and retrieval research. First, we conduct a user study to identify contextual factors that may play a role in the studied task and environment. Then, we design expert retrieval models to capture these factors. We combine these with content......-based retrieval models and evaluate them in a retrieval experiment. Our main finding is that while content-based features are the most important, human participants also take contextual factors into account, such as media experience and organizational structure. We develop two principled ways of modeling...

  12. Sources of method bias in social science research and recommendations on how to control it.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podsakoff, Philip M; MacKenzie, Scott B; Podsakoff, Nathan P

    2012-01-01

    Despite the concern that has been expressed about potential method biases, and the pervasiveness of research settings with the potential to produce them, there is disagreement about whether they really are a problem for researchers in the behavioral sciences. Therefore, the purpose of this review is to explore the current state of knowledge about method biases. First, we explore the meaning of the terms "method" and "method bias" and then we examine whether method biases influence all measures equally. Next, we review the evidence of the effects that method biases have on individual measures and on the covariation between different constructs. Following this, we evaluate the procedural and statistical remedies that have been used to control method biases and provide recommendations for minimizing method bias.

  13. Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

  14. Expert and Competent Non-Expert Visual Cues during Simulated Diagnosis in Intensive Care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clare eMcCormack

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye tracker during the initial 90 seconds of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

  15. Expert Judgement Assessment & SCENT Ontological Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NICHERSU Iulian

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to provide insights in the starting point of the Horizon 2020 ECfunded project SCENT (Smart Toolbox for Εngaging Citizens into a People-Centric Observation Web Citizen Observatory (CO in terms of existing infrastructure, existing monitoring systems and some discussion on the existing legal and administrative framework that relate to flood monitoring and management in the area of Danube Delta. The methodology used in this approach is based on expert judgement and ontological analysis, using the information collected from the identified end-users of the SCENT toolbox. In this type of analysis the stages of flood monitoring and management that the experts are involved in are detailed. This is done through an Expert Judgement Assessment analysis. The latter is complemented by a set of Key Performance Indicators that the stakeholders have assessed and/or proposed for the evaluation of the SCENT demonstrations, for the impact of the project and finally for SCENT toolbox performance and usefulness. The second part of the study presents an analysis that attempts to map the interactions between different organizations and components of the existing monitoring systems in the Danube Delta case study. Expert Judgement (EJ allows to gain information from specialists in a specific field through a consultation process with one or more experts that have experience in similar and complementary topics. Expert judgment, expert estimates, or expert opinion are all terms that refer to the contents of the problem; estimates, outcomes, predictions, uncertainties, and their corresponding assumptions and conditions are all examples of expert judgment. Expert Judgement is affected by the process used to gather it. On the other hand, the ontological analysis comes to complete this study, by organizing and presenting the connections behind the flood management and land use systems in the three phases of the flood event.

  16. Capturing Dynamics of Biased Attention: Are New Attention Variability Measures the Way Forward?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne-Wil Kruijt

    Full Text Available New indices, calculated on data from the widely used Dot Probe Task, were recently proposed to capture variability in biased attention allocation. We observed that it remains unclear which data pattern is meant to be indicative of dynamic bias and thus to be captured by these indices. Moreover, we hypothesized that the new indices are sensitive to SD differences at the response time (RT level in the absence of bias.Randomly generated datasets were analyzed to assess properties of the Attention Bias Variability (ABV and Trial Level Bias Score (TL-BS indices. Sensitivity to creating differences in 1 RT standard deviation, 2 mean RT, and 3 bias magnitude were assessed. In addition, two possible definitions of dynamic attention bias were explored by creating differences in 4 frequency of bias switching, and 5 bias magnitude in the presence of constant switching.ABV and TL-BS indices were found highly sensitive to increasing SD at the response time level, insensitive to increasing bias, linearly sensitive to increasing bias magnitude in the presence of bias switches, and non-linearly sensitive to increasing the frequency of bias switches. The ABV index was also found responsive to increasing mean response times in the absence of bias.Recently proposed DPT derived variability indices cannot uncouple measurement error from bias variability. Significant group differences may be observed even if there is no bias present in any individual dataset. This renders the new indices in their current form unfit for empirical purposes. Our discussion focuses on fostering debate and ideas for new research to validate the potentially very important notion of biased attention being dynamic.

  17. News Consumption and Media Bias

    OpenAIRE

    Yi Xiang; Miklos Sarvary

    2007-01-01

    Bias in the market for news is well-documented. Recent research in economics explains the phenomenon by assuming that consumers want to read (watch) news that is consistent with their tastes or prior beliefs rather than the truth. The present paper builds on this idea but recognizes that (i) besides “biased” consumers, there are also “conscientious” consumers whose sole interest is in discovering the truth, and (ii) consistent with reality, media bias is constrained by the truth. These two fa...

  18. Enhanced confinement with plasma biasing in the MST reversed field pinch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Craig, D.; Almagri, A.F.; Anderson, J.K.

    1997-06-01

    We report an increase in particle confinement with plasma biasing in a reversed field pinch. Miniature plasma sources are used as electrodes to negatively bias the plasma at the edge (r/a ∼ 0.9). Particle content increases and H α radiation decreases upon application of bias and global particle confinement roughly doubles as a result. Measurements of plasma potential, impurity flow, and floating potential fluctuations indicate that strong flows are produced and that electrostatic fluctuations are reduced

  19. The coalitional value theory of antigay bias

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Winegard, Bo; Reynolds, Tania; Baumeister, Roy F.; Plant, E. Ashby

    2016-01-01

    Research indicates that antigay bias follows a specific pattern (and probably has throughout written history, at least in the West): (a) men evince more antigay bias than women; (b) men who belong to traditionally male coalitions evince more antigay bias than those who do not; (c) antigay bias is

  20. TCABR Tokamak scrape-off layer turbulence with DC biasing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heller, M.V.A.P.; Ferreira, A.A.; Caldas, I.L.; Nascimento, I.C.

    2004-01-01

    Turbulence and particle transport in plasma scrape-off layer have been controlled by external electric fields. This control can be achieved by a biasing electrode located inside the plasma. We investigate plasma turbulence changes in the scrape-off layer of TCABR tokamak introduced by DC biasing an electrode inside the plasma. Our investigation is based on the alterations observed on the wavelet power spectra and on the intermittent burst sequences of plasma potential and density fluctuations measured by a set of Langmuir probes. Biasing the electrode changes the turbulence statistics and the bursts intermittence. With the imposed external electric field, fluctuation amplitudes, phase velocities, and anomalous particle transport are modified. Transport reduction for higher frequencies induced by the biasing could be due to the strong de-phasing between density and potential fluctuations. The mode coupling increases with the perturbation for the high frequency broadband fluctuations. The total (laminar and bursting) radial particle transport is reduced by about 25% by DC biasing. Bursts contribution to total transport is 15% and for the studied conditions this contribution does not change much with the bias perturbation

  1. Assessing implicit gender bias in Medical Student Performance Evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Axelson, Rick D; Solow, Catherine M; Ferguson, Kristi J; Cohen, Michael B

    2010-09-01

    For medical schools, the increasing presence of women makes it especially important that potential sources of gender bias be identified and removed from student evaluation methods. Our study looked for patterns of gender bias in adjective data used to inform our Medical Student Performance Evaluations (MSPEs). Multigroup Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was used to model the latent structure of the adjectives attributed to students (n = 657) and to test for systematic scoring errors by gender. Gender bias was evident in two areas: (a) women were more likely than comparable men to be described as ''compassionate,'' ''sensitive,'' and ''enthusiastic'' and (b) men were more likely than comparable women to be seen as ''quick learners.'' The gender gap in ''quick learner'' attribution grows with increasing student proficiency; men's rate of increase is over twice that of women's. Technical and nontechnical approaches for ameliorating the impact of gender bias on student recommendations are suggested.

  2. The anchoring bias reflects rational use of cognitive resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieder, Falk; Griffiths, Thomas L; M Huys, Quentin J; Goodman, Noah D

    2018-02-01

    Cognitive biases, such as the anchoring bias, pose a serious challenge to rational accounts of human cognition. We investigate whether rational theories can meet this challenge by taking into account the mind's bounded cognitive resources. We asked what reasoning under uncertainty would look like if people made rational use of their finite time and limited cognitive resources. To answer this question, we applied a mathematical theory of bounded rationality to the problem of numerical estimation. Our analysis led to a rational process model that can be interpreted in terms of anchoring-and-adjustment. This model provided a unifying explanation for ten anchoring phenomena including the differential effect of accuracy motivation on the bias towards provided versus self-generated anchors. Our results illustrate the potential of resource-rational analysis to provide formal theories that can unify a wide range of empirical results and reconcile the impressive capacities of the human mind with its apparently irrational cognitive biases.

  3. Reflective Practice: How the World Bank Explored Its Own Biases?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKee, Martin; Stuckler, David

    2015-12-10

    While many international organisations have independent evaluations, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Health organization (WHO), uniquely the World Bank in its 2015 World Development Report sought to ascertain the potential biases that influence how its staff interpret evidence and influence policy. Here, we describe the World Bank's study design, including experiments to ascertain the impact on Bank staff's judgements of complexity, confirmation bias, sunk cost bias, and an understanding of the wishes of those whom they seek to help. We then review the Bank's proposed mechanisms to minimise the impact of the biases they identified. We argue that this approach, that we refer to as 'reflective practice,' deserves to be adopted more widely among institutions that seek to use evidence from research to inform policy and practice. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  4. Training interpretation biases among individuals with body dysmorphic disorder symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Premo, Julie E; Sarfan, Laurel D; Clerkin, Elise M

    2016-03-01

    The current study provided an initial test of a Cognitive Bias Modification for Interpretations (CBM-I) training paradigm among a sample with elevated BDD symptoms (N=86). As expected, BDD-relevant interpretations were reduced among participants who completed a positive (vs. comparison) training program. Results also pointed to the intriguing possibility that modifying biased appearance-relevant interpretations is causally related to changes in biased, socially relevant interpretations. Further, providing support for cognitive behavioral models, residual change in interpretations was associated with some aspects of in vivo stressor responding. However, contrary to expectations there were no significant effects of condition on emotional vulnerability to a BDD stressor, potentially because participants in both training conditions experienced reductions in biased socially-threatening interpretations following training (suggesting that the "comparison" condition was not inert). These findings have meaningful theoretical and clinical implications, and fit with transdiagnostic conceptualizations of psychopathology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Expert Opinion Is Necessary: Delphi Panel Methodology Facilitates a Scientific Approach to Consensus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hohmann, Erik; Brand, Jefferson C; Rossi, Michael J; Lubowitz, James H

    2018-02-01

    Our current trend and focus on evidence-based medicine is biased in favor of randomized controlled trials, which are ranked highest in the hierarchy of evidence while devaluing expert opinion, which is ranked lowest in the hierarchy. However, randomized controlled trials have weaknesses as well as strengths, and no research method is flawless. Moreover, stringent application of scientific research techniques, such as the Delphi Panel methodology, allows survey of experts in a high quality and scientific manner. Level V evidence (expert opinion) remains a necessary component in the armamentarium used to determine the answer to a clinical question. Copyright © 2017 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Progress on developing expert systems in waste management and disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivera, A.L.; Ferrada, J.J.

    1990-01-01

    The concept of artificial intelligence (AI) represents a challenging opportunity in expanding the potential benefits from computer technology in waste management and disposal. The potential of this concept lies in facilitating the development of intelligent computer systems to help analysts, decision makers, and operators in waste and technology problem solving similar to the way that machines support the laborer. Because the knowledge of multiple human experts is an essential input in the many aspects of waste management and disposal, there are numerous opportunities for the development of expert systems using software products from AI. This paper presents systems analysis as an attractive framework for the development of intelligent computer systems of significance to waste management and disposal, and it provides an overview of limited prototype systems and the commercially available software used during prototype development activities

  7. Coal Quality Expert: Status and software specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, C.D.

    1992-01-01

    Under the Clean Coal Technology Program (Clean Coal Round 1), the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) are funding the development and demonstration of a computer program called the Coal Quality Expert (CQE trademark). When finished, the CQE will be a comprehensive PC-based program which can be used to evaluate several potential coal cleaning, blending, and switching options to reduce power plant emissions while minimizing generation costs. The CQE will be flxible in nature and capable of evaluating various qualities of coal, available transportation options, performance issues, and alternative emissions control strategies. This allows the CQE to determine the most cost-effective coal and the least expensive emissions control strategy for a given plant. To accomplish this, the CQE will be composed of technical models to evaluate performance issues; environmental models to evaluate environmental and regulatory issues; and cost estimating models to predict costs for installations of new and retrofit coal cleaning processes, power production equipment, and emissions control systems as well as other production costs such as consumables (fuel, scrubber additive, etc.), waste disposal, operating and maintenance, and replacement energy costs. These technical, environmental, and economic models as well as a graphical user interface will be developed for the CQE. And, in addition, to take advantage of already existing capability, the CQE will rely on seamless integration of already proven and extensively used computer programs such as the EPRI Coal Quality Information Systems, Coal Quality Impact Model (CQIM trademark), and NO x Pert. 2 figs

  8. EXPERT EVALUATION OF LAIC ARTICLES WITH MEDICAL CONTENTS INPRINTED MEDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uroš Ahčan

    2008-10-01

    The research results are meant to draw the laic and expert publics’ attention to the state ofpresenting medical information in laic printed media. Therefore we suggest introducing alaw on publishing laic medical articles which should fulfil the exposed criteria: stating theauthorship, clearly stated professional qualifications of the author, correctly stated sources. Our aim is to improve the quality of medical information presented to laic readers andby doing so to protect potential patients and consumers

  9. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology : an expert stakeholder analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta, N.; Fischer, A.R.H.; Lans, van der, I.A.; Frewer, L.J.

    2012-01-01

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured i...

  10. Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; van der Lans, Ivo A.; Frewer, Lynn J.

    2012-01-01

    Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured i...

  11. An abnormal event advisory expert system prototype for reactor operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hance, D.C.

    1989-01-01

    Nuclear plant operators must respond correctly during abnormal conditions in the presence of dynamic and potentially overwhelming volumes of information. For this reason, considerable effort has been directed toward the development of nuclear plant operator aids using artificial intelligence techniques. The objective of such systems is to diagnose abnormal conditions within the plant, possibly predict consequences, and advise the operators of corrective actions in a timely manner. The objective of the work is the development of a prototype expert system to diagnose abnormal events at a nuclear power plant and advise plant operators of the event and applicable procedures in an on-line mode. The major difference between this effort and previous work is the use of plant operating procedures as a knowledge source and as an integral part of the advice provided by the expert system. The acceptance by utilities of expert systems as operator aids requires that such systems be compatible with the regulatory environment and provide economic benefits. For this reason, commercially viable operator aid systems developed in the near future must complement existing plant procedures rather than reach beyond them in a revolutionary manner. A knowledge source is the resource providing facts and relationships that are coded into the expert system program. In this case, the primary source of knowledge is a set of selected abnormal operating procedures for a modern Westinghouse pressurized water reactor

  12. Magnification bias as a novel probe for primordial magnetic fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camera, S.; Fedeli, C.; Moscardini, L.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we investigate magnetic fields generated in the early Universe. These fields are important candidates at explaining the origin of astrophysical magnetism observed in galaxies and galaxy clusters, whose genesis is still by and large unclear. Compared to the standard inflationary power spectrum, intermediate to small scales would experience further substantial matter clustering, were a cosmological magnetic field present prior to recombination. As a consequence, the bias and redshift distribution of galaxies would also be modified. Hitherto, primordial magnetic fields (PMFs) have been tested and constrained with a number of cosmological observables, e.g. the cosmic microwave background radiation, galaxy clustering and, more recently, weak gravitational lensing. Here, we explore the constraining potential of the density fluctuation bias induced by gravitational lensing magnification onto the galaxy-galaxy angular power spectrum. Such an effect is known as magnification bias. Compared to the usual galaxy clustering approach, magnification bias helps in lifting the pathological degeneracy present amongst power spectrum normalisation and galaxy bias. This is because magnification bias cross-correlates galaxy number density fluctuations of nearby objects with weak lensing distortions of high-redshift sources. Thus, it takes advantage of the gravitational deflection of light, which is insensitive to galaxy bias but powerful in constraining the density fluctuation amplitude. To scrutinise the potentiality of this method, we adopt a deep and wide-field spectroscopic galaxy survey. We show that magnification bias does contain important information on primordial magnetism, which will be useful in combination with galaxy clustering and shear. We find we shall be able to rule out at 95.4% CL amplitudes of PMFs larger than 5 × 10 −4 nG for values of the PMF power spectral index n B ∼ 0

  13. Sherlock Holmes: an expert's view of expertise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    André, Didierjean; Fernand, Gobet

    2008-02-01

    In recent years, there has been an intense research effort to understand the cognitive processes and structures underlying expert behaviour. Work in different fields, including scientific domains, sports, games and mnemonics, has shown that there are vast differences in perceptual abilities between experts and novices, and that these differences may underpin other cognitive differences in learning, memory and problem solving. In this article, we evaluate the progress made in the last years through the eyes of an outstanding, albeit fictional, expert: Sherlock Holmes. We first use the Sherlock Holmes character to illustrate expert processes as described by current research and theories. In particular, the role of perception, as well as the nature and influence of expert knowledge, are all present in the description of Conan Doyle's hero. In the second part of the article, we discuss a number of issues that current research on expertise has barely addressed. These gaps include, for example, several forms of reasoning, the influence of emotions on cognition, and the effect of age on experts' knowledge and cognitive processes. Thus, although nearly 120-year-old, Conan Doyle's books show remarkable illustrations of expert behaviour, including the coverage of themes that have mostly been overlooked by current research.

  14. Expert system aids transport regulation users

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheshire, R.D.; Straw, R.J.

    1990-01-01

    During late 1984 the IAEA Regulations were identified as an area of application for an expert system adviser which could offer many advantages. Over the following year some simple tests were carried out to examine its feasibility, but TRANAID did not get underway until 1986 when British Nuclear Fuels (BNFL) Corporate Management services were engaged on the product. By this time a greater choice of suitable software, in the form of expert system shells, had become available. After a number of trial systems the shell Leonardo was finally adopted for the final system. In order for TRANAID to emulate the expert it was necessary to spend time extracting and documenting the expert knowledge. This was a matter of investigating how the regulations are used and was achieved by a series of meetings including opportunity for the computer specialists to interview the regulations experts. There are several benefits in having an expert system advisor in this area. It is useful to both experienced and inexperienced users of regulations. For those who are learning to use the regulations it is an excellent training aid. For those who know the regulations but use them infrequently it can save time and provide a valuable reassurance. The adviser has enabled the expert user's know how to be captured and to be made widely available to those with less experience. (author)

  15. Biased Brownian dynamics for rate constant calculation.

    OpenAIRE

    Zou, G; Skeel, R D; Subramaniam, S

    2000-01-01

    An enhanced sampling method-biased Brownian dynamics-is developed for the calculation of diffusion-limited biomolecular association reaction rates with high energy or entropy barriers. Biased Brownian dynamics introduces a biasing force in addition to the electrostatic force between the reactants, and it associates a probability weight with each trajectory. A simulation loses weight when movement is along the biasing force and gains weight when movement is against the biasing force. The sampl...

  16. Automation bias in electronic prescribing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyell, David; Magrabi, Farah; Raban, Magdalena Z; Pont, L G; Baysari, Melissa T; Day, Richard O; Coiera, Enrico

    2017-03-16

    Clinical decision support (CDS) in e-prescribing can improve safety by alerting potential errors, but introduces new sources of risk. Automation bias (AB) occurs when users over-rely on CDS, reducing vigilance in information seeking and processing. Evidence of AB has been found in other clinical tasks, but has not yet been tested with e-prescribing. This study tests for the presence of AB in e-prescribing and the impact of task complexity and interruptions on AB. One hundred and twenty students in the final two years of a medical degree prescribed medicines for nine clinical scenarios using a simulated e-prescribing system. Quality of CDS (correct, incorrect and no CDS) and task complexity (low, low + interruption and high) were varied between conditions. Omission errors (failure to detect prescribing errors) and commission errors (acceptance of false positive alerts) were measured. Compared to scenarios with no CDS, correct CDS reduced omission errors by 38.3% (p < .0001, n = 120), 46.6% (p < .0001, n = 70), and 39.2% (p < .0001, n = 120) for low, low + interrupt and high complexity scenarios respectively. Incorrect CDS increased omission errors by 33.3% (p < .0001, n = 120), 24.5% (p < .009, n = 82), and 26.7% (p < .0001, n = 120). Participants made commission errors, 65.8% (p < .0001, n = 120), 53.5% (p < .0001, n = 82), and 51.7% (p < .0001, n = 120). Task complexity and interruptions had no impact on AB. This study found evidence of AB omission and commission errors in e-prescribing. Verification of CDS alerts is key to avoiding AB errors. However, interventions focused on this have had limited success to date. Clinicians should remain vigilant to the risks of CDS failures and verify CDS.

  17. An Accurate and Impartial Expert Assignment Method for Scientific Project Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingliang Yue

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper proposes an expert assignment method for scientific project review that considers both accuracy and impartiality. As impartial and accurate peer review is extremely important to ensure the quality and feasibility of scientific projects, enhanced methods for managing the process are needed. Design/methodology/approach: To ensure both accuracy and impartiality, we design four criteria, the reviewers’ fitness degree, research intensity, academic association, and potential conflict of interest, to express the characteristics of an appropriate peer review expert. We first formalize the expert assignment problem as an optimization problem based on the designed criteria, and then propose a randomized algorithm to solve the expert assignment problem of identifying reviewer adequacy. Findings: Simulation results show that the proposed method is quite accurate and impartial during expert assignment. Research limitations: Although the criteria used in this paper can properly show the characteristics of a good and appropriate peer review expert, more criteria/conditions can be included in the proposed scheme to further enhance accuracy and impartiality of the expert assignment. Practical implications: The proposed method can help project funding agencies (e.g. the National Natural Science Foundation of China find better experts for project peer review. Originality/value: To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first publication that proposes an algorithm that applies an impartial approach to the project review expert assignment process. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  18. Expert systems for C3I. Volume 1. A user's introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clapp, J. A.; Hockett, S. M.; Prelle, M. J.; Tallant, A. M.; Triant, D. D.

    1985-10-01

    There has been a tremendous burgeoning of interest in artificial intelligence (AI) over the last few years. Investments of commercial and government sponsors reflect a widespread belief that AI is now ready for practical applications. The area of AI currently receiving the greatest attention and investment is expert system technology. Most major high tech corporations have begun to develop expert systems, and many software houses specializing in expert system tools and applications have recently appeared. The defense community is one of the heaviest investors in expert system technology, and within this community one of the application areas receiving greatest attention is C3I. Many ESD programs are now beginning to ask whether expert system applications for C3I are ready for incorporation into ESD-developed systems, and, if so, what are the potential benefits and risks of doing so. This report was prepared to help ESD and MITRE personnel working on acquisition programs to address these issues and to gain a better understanding of what expert systems are all about. The primary intention of this report is to investigate what expert systems are and the advances that are being made in expert system technology for C3I applications. The report begins with a brief tutorial on expert systems, emphasizing how they differ from conventional software systems and what they are best at doing.

  19. Bias-limited extraction of cosmological parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shimon, Meir; Itzhaki, Nissan; Rephaeli, Yoel, E-mail: meirs@wise.tau.ac.il, E-mail: nitzhaki@post.tau.ac.il, E-mail: yoelr@wise.tau.ac.il [School of Physics and Astronomy, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978 (Israel)

    2013-03-01

    It is known that modeling uncertainties and astrophysical foregrounds can potentially introduce appreciable bias in the deduced values of cosmological parameters. While it is commonly assumed that these uncertainties will be accounted for to a sufficient level of precision, the level of bias has not been properly quantified in most cases of interest. We show that the requirement that the bias in derived values of cosmological parameters does not surpass nominal statistical error, translates into a maximal level of overall error O(N{sup −½}) on |ΔP(k)|/P(k) and |ΔC{sub l}|/C{sub l}, where P(k), C{sub l}, and N are the matter power spectrum, angular power spectrum, and number of (independent Fourier) modes at a given scale l or k probed by the cosmological survey, respectively. This required level has important consequences on the precision with which cosmological parameters are hoped to be determined by future surveys: in virtually all ongoing and near future surveys N typically falls in the range 10{sup 6}−10{sup 9}, implying that the required overall theoretical modeling and numerical precision is already very high. Future redshifted-21-cm observations, projected to sample ∼ 10{sup 14} modes, will require knowledge of the matter power spectrum to a fantastic 10{sup −7} precision level. We conclude that realizing the expected potential of future cosmological surveys, which aim at detecting 10{sup 6}−10{sup 14} modes, sets the formidable challenge of reducing the overall level of uncertainty to 10{sup −3}−10{sup −7}.

  20. Exploring Attribution Theory and Bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Jessica A.

    2017-01-01

    Courses: This activity can be used in a wide range of classes, including interpersonal communication, introduction to communication, and small group communication. Objectives: After completing this activity, students should be able to: (1) define attribution theory, personality attribution, situational attribution, and attribution bias; (2)…

  1. Ratio Bias and Policy Preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Tue

    2016-01-01

    Numbers permeate modern political communication. While current scholarship on framing effects has focused on the persuasive effects of words and arguments, this article shows that framing of numbers can also substantially affect policy preferences. Such effects are caused by ratio bias, which...

  2. Bias in Peripheral Depression Biomarkers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carvalho, André F; Köhler, Cristiano A; Brunoni, André R

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To aid in the differentiation of individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD) from healthy controls, numerous peripheral biomarkers have been proposed. To date, no comprehensive evaluation of the existence of bias favoring the publication of significant results or inflating effect...

  3. Minimum Bias Trigger in ATLAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwee, Regina

    2010-01-01

    Since the restart of the LHC in November 2009, ATLAS has collected inelastic pp collisions to perform first measurements on charged particle densities. These measurements will help to constrain various models describing phenomenologically soft parton interactions. Understanding the trigger efficiencies for different event types are therefore crucial to minimize any possible bias in the event selection. ATLAS uses two main minimum bias triggers, featuring complementary detector components and trigger levels. While a hardware based first trigger level situated in the forward regions with 2.2 < |η| < 3.8 has been proven to select pp-collisions very efficiently, the Inner Detector based minimum bias trigger uses a random seed on filled bunches and central tracking detectors for the event selection. Both triggers were essential for the analysis of kinematic spectra of charged particles. Their performance and trigger efficiency measurements as well as studies on possible bias sources will be presented. We also highlight the advantage of these triggers for particle correlation analyses. (author)

  4. Gender bias in teaching evaluations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mengel, Friederike; Sauermann, Jan; Zölitz, Ulf Zoelitz

    2017-01-01

    This paper provides new evidence on gender bias in teaching evaluations. We exploit a quasi-experimental dataset of 19,952 student evaluations of university faculty in a context where students are randomly allocated to female or male instructors. Despite the fact that neither students’ grades nor

  5. Attentional Bias in Math Anxiety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orly eRubinsten

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive theory from the field of general anxiety suggests that the tendency to display attentional bias toward negative information results in anxiety. Accordingly, the current study aims to investigate whether attentional bias is involved in math anxiety as well (i.e., a persistent negative reaction to math. Twenty seven participants (14 with high levels of math anxiety and 13 with low levels of math anxiety were presented with a novel computerized numerical version of the well established dot probe task. One of 6 types of prime stimuli, either math related or typically neutral, were presented on one side of a computer screen. The prime was preceded by a probe (either one or two asterisks that appeared in either the prime or the opposite location. Participants had to discriminate probe identity (one or two asterisks. Math anxious individuals reacted faster when the probe was at the location of the numerical related stimuli. This suggests the existence of attentional bias in math anxiety. That is, for math anxious individuals, the cognitive system selectively favored the processing of emotionally negative information (i.e., math related words. These findings suggest that attentional bias is linked to unduly intense math anxiety symptoms.

  6. Attentional bias in math anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubinsten, Orly; Eidlin, Hili; Wohl, Hadas; Akibli, Orly

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive theory from the field of general anxiety suggests that the tendency to display attentional bias toward negative information results in anxiety. Accordingly, the current study aims to investigate whether attentional bias is involved in math anxiety (MA) as well (i.e., a persistent negative reaction to math). Twenty seven participants (14 with high levels of MA and 13 with low levels of MA) were presented with a novel computerized numerical version of the well established dot probe task. One of six types of prime stimuli, either math related or typically neutral, was presented on one side of a computer screen. The prime was preceded by a probe (either one or two asterisks) that appeared in either the prime or the opposite location. Participants had to discriminate probe identity (one or two asterisks). Math anxious individuals reacted faster when the probe was at the location of the numerical related stimuli. This suggests the existence of attentional bias in MA. That is, for math anxious individuals, the cognitive system selectively favored the processing of emotionally negative information (i.e., math related words). These findings suggest that attentional bias is linked to unduly intense MA symptoms.

  7. Perception bias in route choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vreeswijk, Jacob Dirk; Thomas, Tom; van Berkum, Eric C.; van Arem, Bart

    2014-01-01

    Travel time is probably one of the most studied attributes in route choice. Recently, perception of travel time received more attention as several studies have shown its importance in explaining route choice behavior. In particular, travel time estimates by travelers appear to be biased against

  8. Biases in Drosophila melanogaster protein trap screens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Müller Ilka

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The ability to localise or follow endogenous proteins in real time in vivo is of tremendous utility for cell biology or systems biology studies. Protein trap screens utilise the random genomic insertion of a transposon-borne artificial reporter exon (e.g. encoding the green fluorescent protein, GFP into an intron of an endogenous gene to generate a fluorescent fusion protein. Despite recent efforts aimed at achieving comprehensive coverage of the genes encoded in the Drosophila genome, the repertoire of genes that yield protein traps is still small. Results We analysed the collection of available protein trap lines in Drosophila melanogaster and identified potential biases that are likely to restrict genome coverage in protein trap screens. The protein trap screens investigated here primarily used P-element vectors and thus exhibit some of the same positional biases associated with this transposon that are evident from the comprehensive Drosophila Gene Disruption Project. We further found that protein trap target genes usually exhibit broad and persistent expression during embryonic development, which is likely to facilitate better detection. In addition, we investigated the likely influence of the GFP exon on host protein structure and found that protein trap insertions have a significant bias for exon-exon boundaries that encode disordered protein regions. 38.8% of GFP insertions land in disordered protein regions compared with only 23.4% in the case of non-trapping P-element insertions landing in coding sequence introns (p -4. Interestingly, even in cases where protein domains are predicted, protein trap insertions frequently occur in regions encoding surface exposed areas that are likely to be functionally neutral. Considering the various biases observed, we predict that less than one third of intron-containing genes are likely to be amenable to trapping by the existing methods. Conclusion Our analyses suggest that the

  9. Expert systems and computer based industrial systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunand, R.

    1989-01-01

    Framentec is the artificial intelligence subsidiary of FRAMATOME. It is involved in expert-system activities of Shells, developments, methodology and software for maintenance (Maintex) and consulting and methodology. Specific applications in the nuclear field are presented. The first is an expert system to assist in the piping support design prototype, the second is an expert system that assists an ultrasonic testing operator in determining the nature of a welding defect and the third is a welding machine diagnosis advisor. Maintex is a software tool to provide assistance in the repair of complex industrial equipment. (author)

  10. Expert systems for assisting in design reviews

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brtis, J.S.; Johnson, W.J.; Weber, N.; Naser, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses Sargent and Lundy's (S and L's) use of expert system technologies to computerize the procedures used for engineering design reviews. This paper discusses expert systems and the advantages that result from using them to computerize the decision-making process. This paper also discusses the design review expert systems that S and L has developed to perform fire protection and ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) design reviews, and is currently developing for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to perform 10 CFR 50.59 safety reviews

  11. Risks, doubt, scientific and technical expert appraisement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decrop, G.

    1993-01-01

    In complex systems which compose modern societies, expert report is going to take an increasing place. In its usual definition, expert is justified by a superior authority, his knowledge comes from experience, he is present as a third party where he has to work. It is often forgotten two other important points, connected with the situation: it is a tangling of technical or natural systems with a social system and above all there is a risk of uncertainty. Then, the job of expert is different from scientific work done in laboratories and different from operational work done by engineers

  12. An expert system for dispersion model interpretation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skyllingstad, E.D.; Ramsdell, J.V.

    1988-10-01

    A prototype expert system designed to diagnose dispersion model uncertainty is described in this paper with application to a puff transport model. The system obtains qualitative information from the model user and through an expert-derived knowledge base, performs a rating of the current simulation. These results can then be used in combination with dispersion model output for deciding appropriate evacuation measures. Ultimately, the goal of this work is to develop an expert system that may be operated accurately by an individual uneducated in meteorology or dispersion modeling. 5 refs., 3 figs

  13. Computers start to think with expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1983-03-21

    A growing number of professionals-notably in oil and mineral exploration, plasma research, medicine, VLSI circuit design, drug design and robotics-are beginning to use computerised expert systems. A computer program uses knowledge and inference procedures to solve problems which are sufficiently difficult to require significant human expertise for their solution. The facts constitute a body of information that is widely shared, publicly available and generally agreed upon by experts in the field. The heuristics are mostly private, and little discussed, rules of good judgement (rules of plausible reasoning, rules of good guessing, etc.) that characterise expert-level decision making in the field.

  14. Expert - Non-expert differences in visual behaviour during alpine slalom skiing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decroix, Marjolein; Wazir, Mohd Rozilee Wazir Norjali; Zeuwts, Linus; Deconinck, Frederik F J A; Lenoir, Matthieu; Vansteenkiste, Pieter

    2017-10-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate visual behaviour of expert and non-expert ski athletes during an alpine slalom. Fourteen non-experts and five expert slalom skiers completed an alpine slalom course in an indoor ski slope while wearing a head-mounted eye tracking device. Experts completed the slalom clearly faster than non-experts, but no significant difference was found in timing and position of the turn initiation. Although both groups already looked at future obstacles approximately 0,5s before passing the upcoming pole, the higher speed of experts implied that they shifted gaze spatially earlier in the bend than non-experts. Furthermore, experts focussed more on the second next pole while non-expert slalom skiers looked more to the snow surface immediately in front of their body. No difference was found in the fixation frequency, average fixation duration, and quiet eye duration between both groups. These results suggest that experts focus on the timing of their actions while non-experts still need to pay attention to the execution of these actions. These results also might suggest that ski trainers should instruct non-experts and experts to focus on the next pole and, shift their gaze to the second next pole shortly before reaching it. Based on the current study it seems unadvisable to instruct slalom skiers to look several poles ahead during the actual slalom. However, future research should test if these results still hold on a real outdoor slope, including multiple vertical gates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Expert Elicitation Methods in Quantifying the Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance from Offshore Renewable Energy Developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donovan, Carl; Harwood, John; King, Stephanie; Booth, Cormac; Caneco, Bruno; Walker, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    There are many developments for offshore renewable energy around the United Kingdom whose installation typically produces large amounts of far-reaching noise, potentially disturbing many marine mammals. The potential to affect the favorable conservation status of many species means extensive environmental impact assessment requirements for the licensing of such installation activities. Quantification of such complex risk problems is difficult and much of the key information is not readily available. Expert elicitation methods can be employed in such pressing cases. We describe the methodology used in an expert elicitation study conducted in the United Kingdom for combining expert opinions based on statistical distributions and copula-like methods.

  16. School Construction Management: Expert Administrators Speak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fickes, Michael

    2001-01-01

    Presents expert opinion on school construction management communication concerning educational needs, obtaining consensus among diverse groups, and envisioning what schools must offer in the future. Why furniture issues are also important is highlighted. (GR)

  17. National Cyber Expert Addresses ELP Class

    OpenAIRE

    Center for Homeland Defense and Security

    2012-01-01

    Center for Homeland Defense and Security, PRESS RELEASES Governments, businesses and educational institutions should be making cybersecurity a top priority, a leading expert told a class of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security’s Executive Leaders Program. Brian...

  18. A fuzzy expert system based on relations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, L.O.; Kandel, A.

    1986-01-01

    The Fuzzy Expert System (FESS) is an expert system which makes use of the theory of fuzzy relations to perform inference. Relations are very general and can be used for any application, which only requires different types of relations be implemented and used. The incorporation of fuzzy reasoning techniques enables the expert system to deal with imprecision in a well-founded manner. The knowledge is represented in relational frames. FESS may operate in either a forward chaining or backward chaining manner. It uses primarily implication and factual relations. A unique methodology for combination of evidence has been developed. It makes uses of a blackboard for communication between the various knowledge sources which may operate in parallel. The expert system has been designed in such a manner that it may be used for diverse applications

  19. Implicit Communication in Novice and Expert Teams

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Swain, Kelly

    2003-01-01

    ... (military, sporting or business teams). This suggests that expert teams may be utilising shared mental models of both the roles of their teammates and how they should be working together in a group situation...

  20. An expert system for sensor data validation and malfunction detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashemi, S.; Hajek, B.K.; Miller, D.W.

    1987-01-01

    Nuclear power plant operation and monitoring in general is a complex task which requires a large number of sensors, alarms and displays. At any instant in time, the operator is required to make a judgment about the state of the plant and to react accordingly. During abnormal situations, operators are further burdened with time constraints. The possibility of an undetected faulty instrumentation line, adds to the complexity of operators' reasoning tasks. Failure of human operators to cope with the conceptual complexity of abnormal situations often leads to more serious malfunctions and further damages to plant (TMI-2 as an example). During these abnormalities, operators rely on the information provided by the plant sensors and associated alarms. Their usefulness however, is quickly diminished by their large number and the extremely difficult task of interpreting and comprehending the information provided by them. The need for an aid to assist the operator in interpreting the available data and diagnosis of problems is obvious. Recent work at the Ohio State University Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence Research (LAIR) and the nuclear engineering program has concentrated on the problem of diagnostic expert systems performance and their applicability to the nuclear power plant domain. There has also been concern about the diagnostic expert systems performance when using potentially invalid sensor data. Because of this research, an expert system has been developed that can perform diagnostic problem solving despite the existence of some conflicting data in the domain. This work has resulted in enhancement of a programming tool, that allows domain experts to create a diagnostic system that will be to some degree, tolerant of bad data while performing diagnosis. This expert system is described here

  1. The World (of Warcraft) through the eyes of an expert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzouki, Yousri; Dusaucy, Valériane; Chanceaux, Myriam; Mathôt, Sebastiaan

    2017-01-01

    Negative correlations between pupil size and the tendency to look at salient locations were found in recent studies (e.g., Mathôt et al., 2015). It is hypothesized that this negative correlation might be explained by the mental effort put by participants in the task that leads in return to pupil dilation. Here we present an exploratory study on the effect of expertise on eye-movement behavior. Because there is no available standard tool to evaluate WoW players' expertise, we built an off-game questionnaire testing players' knowledge about WoW and acquired skills through completed raids, highest rated battlegrounds, Skill Points, etc. Experts ( N  = 4) and novices ( N  = 4) in the massively multiplayer online role-playing game World of Warcraft (WoW) viewed 24 designed video segments from the game that differ in regards with their content (i.e, informative locations) and visual complexity (i.e, salient locations). Consistent with previous studies, we found a negative correlation between pupil size and the tendency to look at salient locations (experts, r  =  - .17, p  WoW players than novice players ( Z  =  - 3.3, p  = .0011). This suggests that experts learned to improve control over eye-movement behavior by guiding their eyes towards informative, but potentially low-salient areas of the screen. These findings may contribute to our understanding of what makes an expert an expert.

  2. Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Expert Elicitation Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coppersmith, Kevin J.; Perman, Roseanne C.

    1998-01-01

    This report presents results of the Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Expert Elicitation (SZEE) project for Yucca Mountain, Nevada. This project was sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and managed by Geomatrix Consultants, Inc. (Geomatrix), for TRW Environmental Safety Systems, Inc. The DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (referred to as the YMP) is intended to evaluate the suitability of the site for construction of a mined geologic repository for the permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The SZEE project is one of several that involve the elicitation of experts to characterize the knowledge and uncertainties regarding key inputs to the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA). The objective of the current project was to characterize the uncertainties associated with certain key issues related to the saturated zone system in the Yucca Mountain area and downgradient region. An understanding of saturated zone processes is critical to evaluating the performance of the potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. A major goal of the project was to capture the uncertainties involved in assessing the saturated flow processes, including uncertainty in both the models used to represent the physical processes controlling saturated zone flow and transport, and the parameter values used in the models. So that the analysis included a wide range of perspectives, multiple individual judgments were elicited from members of an expert panel. The panel members, who were experts from within and outside the Yucca Mountain project, represented a range of experience and expertise. A deliberate process was followed in facilitating interactions among the experts, in training them to express their uncertainties, and in eliciting their interpretations. The resulting assessments and probability distributions, therefore, provide a reasonable aggregate representation of the knowledge and

  3. Expert systems to assist plant operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumoto, Yoshihiro; Mori, Nobuyuki; Wada, Norio

    1985-01-01

    Large-scale real-time process control systems, such as those for electric power dispatching, large thermal and nuclear power stations, steel mill plants and manufacturing automation systems, need expert systems to assist operator's decision. The expert systems newly developed to fulfill the requirement are founded on OKBS (object oriented knowledge based system). OKBS provides various object types: fuzzy logic type, production rule type, frame type, state transition type, abstract data type and input/output transformation type. (author)

  4. Jess, the Java expert system shell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friedman-Hill, E.J.

    1997-11-01

    This report describes Jess, a clone of the popular CLIPS expert system shell written entirely in Java. Jess supports the development of rule-based expert systems which can be tightly coupled to code written in the powerful, portable Java language. The syntax of the Jess language is discussed, and a comprehensive list of supported functions is presented. A guide to extending Jess by writing Java code is also included.

  5. An expert system for turbogenerator diagnostics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bessenyei, Z.; Tomcsanyi, T.; Toth, Z.; Laczay, I.

    1992-01-01

    In 1990, an expert system for turbo-generator diagnostics (EST-D) was installed at the 3rd and 4th units of the Paks NPP (Hungary). The expert system is strongly integrated to the ARGUS II vibration monitoring and diagnostics system. The system works on IBM PC AT. The VEIKI's and the NPP's human experts were interviewed to fill up the knowledgebase. The system is able to identify 13 different faults of the parts of a turbogenerator. The knowledgebase consists of ca 200 rules. The rules were built in and the system was verified and validated using a model of the turbines and using the experiences gathered with ARGUS II during the last 3 years. The maintenance personnel is authorized to modify and/or extend the knowledgebase. The input data for evaluation come from measured vibration patterns produced by the ARGUS II system, database of events, and maintenance data input by the maintenance personnel. The expert system is based on the modified GENESYS 2.1 shell (developed by SZAMALK, Hungary). Some limitations from PC application were eliminated, and a new, independent explanation module and man-machine interface were developed. Using this man-machine interface, one of the basic goals of the expert system developments was achieved: the human experts contribution is not necessary for diagnoses. The operator of the diagnostics system is able to produce the reports of diagnoses. Of course the interface allows the human experts to see the diagnoses through. It should be mentioned, at the beginning of 1991, we installed a similar expert system at the 1st 1000 MW WWER type unit of the Kalinin NPP (Soviet Union). In this paper, the operation of the EST-D, the man-machine interface and the operational experiences of the first 4 months work are explained. 2 refs., 14 figs

  6. Key attributes of expert NRL referees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Gavin; O'Connor, Donna

    2017-05-01

    Experiential knowledge of elite National Rugby League (NRL) referees was investigated to determine the key attributes contributing to expert officiating performance. Fourteen current first-grade NRL referees were asked to identify the key attributes they believed contributed to their expert refereeing performance. The modified Delphi method involved a 3-round process of an initial semi-structured interview followed by 2 questionnaires to reach consensus of opinion. The data revealed 25 attributes that were rated as most important that underpin expert NRL refereeing performance. Results illustrate the significance of the cognitive category, with the top 6 ranked attributes all cognitive skills. Of these, the referees ranked decision-making accuracy as the most important attribute, followed by reading the game, communication, game understanding, game management and knowledge of the rules. Player rapport, positioning and teamwork were the top ranked game skill attributes underpinning performance excellence. Expert referees also highlighted a number of psychological attributes (e.g., concentration, composure and mental toughness) that were significant to performance. There were only 2 physiological attributes (fitness, aerobic endurance) that were identified as significant to elite officiating performance. In summary, expert consensus was attained which successfully provided a hierarchy of the most significant attributes of expert NRL refereeing performance.

  7. Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgment Elicitation Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C.; Youngs, R.R.

    1993-02-01

    This report summarizes the results of the Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgement Excitation Project sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The objectives of this study were two-fold: (1) to demonstrate methods for the excitation of expert judgement, and (2) to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for use in the EPRI-HLW performance assessment. Specifically, the technical issue considered is the probability of differential fault displacement through the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. For this study, a strategy for quantifying uncertainties was developed that relies on the judgements of multiple experts. A panel of seven geologists and seismologists was assembled to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for the performance assessment model. A series of technical workshops focusing on these issues were conducted. Finally, each expert was individually interviewed in order to elicit his judgement regarding the technical issues and to provide the technical basis for his assessment. This report summarizes the methodologies used to elicit the judgements of the earthquakes and tectonics experts (termed ''specialists''), and summarizes the technical assessments made by the expert panel

  8. Expert system in PNC, 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamoto, Fumio; Nakazawa, Hiroaki

    1990-01-01

    We have been developing an operation assisting system, partially supported by AI system, for uranium enrichment plant. The AI system is a proto-type system aiming a final one which can be applied to any future large uranium enrichment plant and also not only to specific operational area but also to complex and multi-phenomenon operational area. An existing AI system, for example facility diagnostic system that utilizes the result of CCT(Cause Consequence Tree) analysis as knowledge base, has weakness in flexibility and potentiality. To build AI system, we have developed the most suitable knowledge representations using deep knowledge for each facility or operation of uranium enrichment plant. This paper describes our AI proto-type system adopting several knowledge representations that can represent an uranium enrichment plant's operation with deep knowledge. (author)

  9. Measuring the Effectiveness of Gamesourcing Expert Oil Painting Annotations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.C. Traub (Myriam); J.R. van Ossenbruggen (Jacco); J. He (Jiyin); L. Hardman (Lynda); M. de Rijke (Maarten); T Kentner; A.P. de Vries (Arjen); F.M.G. de Jong (Franciska); C. Zhai (ChengXiang ); K. Hofmann (Katja); K. Radinsky

    2014-01-01

    htmlabstractTasks that require users to have expert knowledge are diffi- cult to crowdsource. They are mostly too complex to be carried out by non-experts and the available experts in the crowd are difficult to target. Adapting an expert task into a non-expert user task, thereby enabling the

  10. Effects of Cognitive Bias Modification Training via Smartphones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranming Yang

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives: Negative cognitive biases have been linked to anxiety and mood problems. Accumulated data from laboratory studies show that positive and negative interpretation styles with accompanying changes in mood can be induced through cognitive bias modification (CBM paradigms. Despite the therapeutic potential of positive training effects, few studies have explored training paradigms administered via smartphones. The current study aimed to compare the effectiveness of three different types of training programmes (cognitive bias modification-attention, CBM-A; cognitive bias modification-interpretation, CBM-I; attention and interpretation modification, AIM administered via smart-phones by using a control condition (CC.Methods:Seventy-six undergraduate participants with high social anxiety (Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale, LSAS ≥ 30 were randomly assigned to four groups: CBM-A (n = 20, CBM-I (n = 20, AIM (n = 16, and CC (n = 20.Results: The results showed that the effects of CBM training, CBM-I training, or AIM training vs. CC for attention yielded no significant differences in dot-probe attention bias scores. The CBM-I group showed significantly less threat interpretation and more benign interpretation than the CC group on interpretation bias scores.Conclusions: The present results supported the feasibility of delivering CBM-I via smartphones, but the effectiveness of CBM-A and AIM training via smartphones was limited.

  11. Smokers exhibit biased neural processing of smoking and affective images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Jason A; Jentink, Kade G; Drobes, David J; Evans, David E

    2016-08-01

    There has been growing interest in the role that implicit processing of drug cues can play in motivating drug use behavior. However, the extent to which drug cue processing biases relate to the processing biases exhibited to other types of evocative stimuli is largely unknown. The goal of the present study was to determine how the implicit cognitive processing of smoking cues relates to the processing of affective cues using a novel paradigm. Smokers (n = 50) and nonsmokers (n = 38) completed a picture-viewing task, in which participants were presented with a series of smoking, pleasant, unpleasant, and neutral images while engaging in a distractor task designed to direct controlled resources away from conscious processing of image content. Electroencephalogram recordings were obtained throughout the task for extraction of event-related potentials (ERPs). Smokers exhibited differential processing of smoking cues across 3 different ERP indices compared with nonsmokers. Comparable effects were found for pleasant cues on 2 of these indices. Late cognitive processing of smoking and pleasant cues was associated with nicotine dependence and cigarette use. Results suggest that cognitive biases may extend across classes of stimuli among smokers. This raises important questions about the fundamental meaning of cognitive biases, and suggests the need to consider generalized cognitive biases in theories of drug use behavior and interventions based on cognitive bias modification. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. A method for additive bias correction in cross-cultural surveys

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scholderer, Joachim; Grunert, Klaus G.; Brunsø, Karen

    2001-01-01

    additive bias from cross-cultural data. The procedure involves four steps: (1) embed a potentially biased item in a factor-analytic measurement model, (2) test for the existence of additive bias between populations, (3) use the factor-analytic model to estimate the magnitude of the bias, and (4) replace......Measurement bias in cross-cultural surveys can seriously threaten the validity of hypothesis tests. Direct comparisons of means depend on the assumption that differences in observed variables reflect differences in the underlying constructs, and not an additive bias that may be caused by cultural...... differences in the understanding of item wording or response category labels. However, experience suggests that additive bias can be found more often than not. Based on the concept of partial measurement invariance (Byrne, Shavelson and Muthén, 1989), the present paper develops a procedure for eliminating...

  13. A procedure for eliminating additive bias from cross-cultural survey data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scholderer, Joachim; Grunert, Klaus G.; Brunsø, Karen

    2005-01-01

    additive bias from cross-cultural data. The procedure involves four steps: (1) embed a potentially biased item in a factor-analytic measurement model, (2) test for the existence of additive bias between populations, (3) use the factor-analytic model to estimate the magnitude of the bias, and (4) replace......Measurement bias in cross-cultural surveys can seriously threaten the validity of hypothesis tests. Direct comparisons of means depend on the assumption that differences in observed variables reflect differences in the underlying constructs, and not an additive bias that may be caused by cultural...... differences in the understanding of item wording or response category labels. However, experience suggests that additive bias can be found more often than not. Based on the concept of partial measurement invariance (Byrne, Shavelson and Muthén 1989), the present paper develops a procedure for eliminating...

  14. Codon Bias Patterns of E. coli's Interacting Proteins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maddalena Dilucca

    Full Text Available Synonymous codons, i.e., DNA nucleotide triplets coding for the same amino acid, are used differently across the variety of living organisms. The biological meaning of this phenomenon, known as codon usage bias, is still controversial. In order to shed light on this point, we propose a new codon bias index, CompAI, that is based on the competition between cognate and near-cognate tRNAs during translation, without being tuned to the usage bias of highly expressed genes. We perform a genome-wide evaluation of codon bias for E.coli, comparing CompAI with other widely used indices: tAI, CAI, and Nc. We show that CompAI and tAI capture similar information by being positively correlated with gene conservation, measured by the Evolutionary Retention Index (ERI, and essentiality, whereas, CAI and Nc appear to be less sensitive to evolutionary-functional parameters. Notably, the rate of variation of tAI and CompAI with ERI allows to obtain sets of genes that consistently belong to specific clusters of orthologous genes (COGs. We also investigate the correlation of codon bias at the genomic level with the network features of protein-protein interactions in E.coli. We find that the most densely connected communities of the network share a similar level of codon bias (as measured by CompAI and tAI. Conversely, a small difference in codon bias between two genes is, statistically, a prerequisite for the corresponding proteins to interact. Importantly, among all codon bias indices, CompAI turns out to have the most coherent distribution over the communities of the interactome, pointing to the significance of competition among cognate and near-cognate tRNAs for explaining codon usage adaptation. Notably, CompAI may potentially correlate with translation speed measurements, by accounting for the specific delay induced by wobble-pairing between codons and anticodons.

  15. Modifications of plasma edge electric field and confinement properties by limiter biasing on the KT-5C tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hui Gao; Kan Zhai; Yizhi Wen; Shude Wan; Guiding Wang; Changxun Yu

    1995-01-01

    Experiments using a biased multiblock limiter in the KT-5C tokamak show that positive biasing is more effective than negative biasing in modifying the edge electric field, suppressing fluctuations and improving plasma confinement. The biasing effect varies with the limiter area, the toroidal magnetic field and the biasing voltage. By positive biasing, the edge profiles of the plasma potential, the electron temperature and the density become steeper, resulting in a reduced edge particle flux, an increased global particle confinement time and lower fluctuation levels of the edge plasma. (author)

  16. Variable-bias coin tossing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colbeck, Roger; Kent, Adrian

    2006-01-01

    Alice is a charismatic quantum cryptographer who believes her parties are unmissable; Bob is a (relatively) glamorous string theorist who believes he is an indispensable guest. To prevent possibly traumatic collisions of self-perception and reality, their social code requires that decisions about invitation or acceptance be made via a cryptographically secure variable-bias coin toss (VBCT). This generates a shared random bit by the toss of a coin whose bias is secretly chosen, within a stipulated range, by one of the parties; the other party learns only the random bit. Thus one party can secretly influence the outcome, while both can save face by blaming any negative decisions on bad luck. We describe here some cryptographic VBCT protocols whose security is guaranteed by quantum theory and the impossibility of superluminal signaling, setting our results in the context of a general discussion of secure two-party computation. We also briefly discuss other cryptographic applications of VBCT

  17. Probability biases as Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre; C. R. Martins

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

  18. Variable-bias coin tossing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colbeck, Roger; Kent, Adrian

    2006-03-01

    Alice is a charismatic quantum cryptographer who believes her parties are unmissable; Bob is a (relatively) glamorous string theorist who believes he is an indispensable guest. To prevent possibly traumatic collisions of self-perception and reality, their social code requires that decisions about invitation or acceptance be made via a cryptographically secure variable-bias coin toss (VBCT). This generates a shared random bit by the toss of a coin whose bias is secretly chosen, within a stipulated range, by one of the parties; the other party learns only the random bit. Thus one party can secretly influence the outcome, while both can save face by blaming any negative decisions on bad luck. We describe here some cryptographic VBCT protocols whose security is guaranteed by quantum theory and the impossibility of superluminal signaling, setting our results in the context of a general discussion of secure two-party computation. We also briefly discuss other cryptographic applications of VBCT.

  19. Unintended Side Effects of Digital Transition: Perspectives of Japanese Experts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masahiro Sugiyama

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The core of the digital transition is the representation of all kinds of real-world entities and processes and an increasing number of cognitive processes by digital information and algorithms on computers. These allow for seemingly unlimited storage, operation, retrieval, and transmission capacities that make digital tools economically available for all domains of society and empower human action, particularly combined with real-world interfaces such as displays, robots, sensors, 3D printers, etc. Digital technologies are general-purpose technologies providing unprecedented potential benefits for sustainability. However, they will bring about a multitude of potential unintended side effects, and this demands a transdisciplinary discussion on unwanted societal changes as well as a shift in science from analog to digital modeling and structure. Although social discourse has begun, the topical scope and regional coverage have been limited. Here, we report on an expert roundtable on digital transition held in February 2017 in Tokyo, Japan. Drawing on a variety of disciplinary backgrounds, our discussions highlight the importance of cultural contexts and the need to bridge local and global conversations. Although Japanese experts did mention side effects, their focus was on how to ensure that AI and robots could coexist with humans. Such a perspective is not well appreciated everywhere outside Japan. Stakeholder dialogues have already begun in Japan, but greater efforts are needed to engage a broader collection of experts in addition to stakeholders to broaden the social debate.

  20. Girl child and gender bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhry, D P

    1995-01-01

    This article identifies gender bias against female children and youth in India. Gender bias is based on centuries-old religious beliefs and sayings from ancient times. Discrimination is reflected in denial or ignorance of female children's educational, health, nutrition, and recreational needs. Female infanticide and selective abortion of female fetuses are other forms of discrimination. The task of eliminating or reducing gender bias will involve legal, developmental, political, and administrative measures. Public awareness needs to be created. There is a need to reorient the education and health systems and to advocate for gender equality. The government of India set the following goals for the 1990s: to protect the survival of the girl child and practice safe motherhood; to develop the girl child in general; and to protect vulnerable girl children in different circumstances and in special groups. The Health Authorities should monitor the laws carefully to assure marriage after the minimum age, ban sex determination of the fetus, and monitor the health and nutrition of pre-school girls and nursing and pregnant mothers. Mothers need to be encouraged to breast feed, and to breast feed equally between genders. Every village and slum area needs a mini health center. Maternal mortality must decline. Primary health centers and hospitals need more women's wards. Education must be universally accessible. Enrollments should be increased by educating rural tribal and slum parents, reducing distances between home and school, making curriculum more relevant to girls, creating more female teachers, and providing facilities and incentives for meeting the needs of girl students. Supplementary income could be provided to families for sending girls to school. Recreational activities must be free of gender bias. Dowry, sati, and devdasi systems should be banned.

  1. Competition and Commercial Media Bias

    OpenAIRE

    Blasco, Andrea; Sobbrio, Francesco

    2011-01-01

    This paper reviews the empirical evidence on commercial media bias (i.e., advertisers influence over media accuracy) and then introduces a simple model to summarize the main elements of the theoretical literature. The analysis provides three main policy insights for media regulators: i) Media regulators should target their monitoring efforts towards news contents upon which advertisers are likely to share similar preferences; ii) In advertising industries characterized by high correlation in ...

  2. BEHAVIORAL BIASES IN TRADING SECURITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Turcan Ciprian Sebastian

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The main thesis of this paper represents the importance and the effects that human behavior has over capital markets. It is important to see the link between the asset valuation and investor sentiment that motivate to pay for an asset a certain prices over/below the intrinsic value. The main behavioral aspects discussed are emotional factors such as: fear of regret, overconfidence, perseverance, loss aversion ,heuristic biases, misinformation and thinking errors, herding and their consequences.

  3. Heuristics and bias in rectal surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDermid, Ewan; Young, Christopher J; Moug, Susan J; Anderson, Robert G; Shepherd, Heather L

    2017-08-01

    Deciding to defunction after anterior resection can be difficult, requiring cognitive tools or heuristics. From our previous work, increasing age and risk-taking propensity were identified as heuristic biases for surgeons in Australia and New Zealand (CSSANZ), and inversely proportional to the likelihood of creating defunctioning stomas. We aimed to assess these factors for colorectal surgeons in the British Isles, and identify other potential biases. The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) was invited to complete an online survey. Questions included demographics, risk-taking propensity, sensitivity to professional criticism, self-perception of anastomotic leak rate and propensity for creating defunctioning stomas. Chi-squared testing was used to assess differences between ACPGBI and CSSANZ respondents. Multiple regression analysis identified independent surgeon predictors of stoma formation. One hundred fifty (19.2%) eligible members of the ACPGBI replied. Demographics between ACPGBI and CSSANZ groups were well-matched. Significantly more ACPGBI surgeons admitted to anastomotic leak in the last year (p < 0.001). ACPGBI surgeon age over 50 (p = 0.02), higher risk-taking propensity across several domains (p = 0.044), self-belief in a lower-than-average anastomotic leak rate (p = 0.02) and belief that the average risk of leak after anterior resection is 8% or lower (p = 0.007) were all independent predictors of less frequent stoma formation. Sensitivity to criticism from colleagues was not a predictor of stoma formation. Unrecognised surgeon factors including age, everyday risk-taking, self-belief in surgical ability and lower probability bias of anastomotic leak appear to exert an effect on decision-making in rectal surgery.

  4. Self-serving bias effects on job analysis ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucina, Jeffrey M; Martin, Nicholas R; Vasilopoulos, Nicholas L; Thibodeuax, Henry F

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether worker-oriented job analysis importance ratings were influenced by subject matter experts' (SME) standing (as measured by self-rated performance) on a competency. This type of relationship (whereby SMEs indicate that the traits they have are important for successful job performance) is an example of the self-serving bias (which is widely described in the social cognition literature and rarely described in the industrial/organizational psychology literature). An archival dataset covering 57 clerical and technical occupations with 26,682 participants was used. Support was found for the relationship between self-rated performance and importance ratings. Significant relationships (typically in the .30s) were observed for all 31 competencies that were studied. Controls were taken to account for common method bias and differences in the competencies required for each of the 57 occupations. Past research has demonstrated the effects of the self-serving bias on personality-based job analysis ratings. This study was the first to extend these findings to traditional job analysis, which covers other competencies in addition to personality. In addition, this study is the first to use operational field data instead of laboratory data.

  5. Preventing halo bias in grading the work of university students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M. Malouff

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Experts have advocated anonymous marking as a means of minimizing bias in subjective student assessment. In the present study, 159 faculty members or teaching assistants across disciplines were randomly assigned (1 to grade a poor oral presentation of a university student, (2 to grade a good oral presentation of the same student, or (3 not to grade any oral presentation of the student. All graders then assessed the same written work by the student. A linear-contrasts analysis showed that, as hypothesized, the graders assigned significantly higher scores to written work following the better oral presentation than following the poor oral presentation, with intermediate scores for the written work of the student whose oral presentation was not seen by the graders. The results provide evidence of a halo effect in that prior experience with a student biased the grading of written work completed by the student. The findings suggest that keeping students anonymous, as in the condition with no knowledge of the student’s performance in the oral presentation, helps prevent bias in grading.

  6. Enhancing Transparency in Multidisciplinary Expert Communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hukki, Kristiina; Pulkkinen, Urho

    2003-01-01

    Faced with problems of public acceptance most nuclear waste management organisations now acknowledge the importance of transparency in their pursuit of solutions for high-level nuclear waste disposal. To make progress the implementing organizations need the trust of other stakeholders in the decision-making process. For such trust these outside stakeholders need knowledge on the grounds for the judgments and decisions made in different scientific and technical disciplines. Transparency is, however, at least as important for the multidisciplinary expert communication itself. As a matter of fact, the transparency of the internal expert interaction processes is a prerequisite for the true transparency of the communication between the implementer and the external stakeholder groups. The introduced conceptual framework has been developed for the identification of the requirements of safety-informed communication in multidisciplinary expert work in nuclear waste management. The framework offers a common thinking model and common concepts which can be utilized in the development of the communication practices. The basis of the framework is on the possibility to understand the safety-critical significance of one's work. The transparency of communication is, for its part, based on making explicit the relevant knowledge necessary for gaining the understanding. This supplementary knowledge, which is related to the substance issues but is not scientific-technical by nature, enhances the experts' awareness of the context of their own contribution and of the background of the other experts' contributions. The common conceptualization and modelling of the knowledge-related dependencies between the tasks make it possible to realize the significance of the supplementary knowledge for transparent communication in actual situations. They also facilitate the recognition of the need for different types of supplementary knowledge in the interfaces between the tasks. By enhancing mutual

  7. Significant biases affecting abundance determinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesson, Roger

    2015-08-01

    I have developed two highly efficient codes to automate analyses of emission line nebulae. The tools place particular emphasis on the propagation of uncertainties. The first tool, ALFA, uses a genetic algorithm to rapidly optimise the parameters of gaussian fits to line profiles. It can fit emission line spectra of arbitrary resolution, wavelength range and depth, with no user input at all. It is well suited to highly multiplexed spectroscopy such as that now being carried out with instruments such as MUSE at the VLT. The second tool, NEAT, carries out a full analysis of emission line fluxes, robustly propagating uncertainties using a Monte Carlo technique.Using these tools, I have found that considerable biases can be introduced into abundance determinations if the uncertainty distribution of emission lines is not well characterised. For weak lines, normally distributed uncertainties are generally assumed, though it is incorrect to do so, and significant biases can result. I discuss observational evidence of these biases. The two new codes contain routines to correctly characterise the probability distributions, giving more reliable results in analyses of emission line nebulae.

  8. Galaxy formation and physical bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cen, Renyue; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.

    1992-01-01

    We have supplemented our code, which computes the evolution of the physical state of a representative piece of the universe to include, not only the dynamics of dark matter (with a standard PM code), and the hydrodynamics of the gaseous component (including detailed collisional and radiative processes), but also galaxy formation on a heuristic but plausible basis. If, within a cell the gas is Jeans' unstable, collapsing, and cooling rapidly, it is transformed to galaxy subunits, which are then followed with a collisionless code. After grouping them into galaxies, we estimate the relative distributions of galaxies and dark matter and the relative velocities of galaxies and dark matter. In a large scale CDM run of 80/h Mpc size with 8 x 10 exp 6 cells and dark matter particles, we find that physical bias b is on the 8/h Mpc scale is about 1.6 and increases towards smaller scales, and that velocity bias is about 0.8 on the same scale. The comparable HDM simulation is highly biased with b = 2.7 on the 8/h Mpc scale. Implications of these results are discussed in the light of the COBE observations which provide an accurate normalization for the initial power spectrum. CDM can be ruled out on the basis of too large a predicted small scale velocity dispersion at greater than 95 percent confidence level.

  9. Perspectives of expert systems in the field of reactor safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastl, W.

    1989-01-01

    The furure potential of expert systems is based on the following factors: the efficient storage of information in the knowledge basis, the efficient use of comprehensive information bases, the interactive approach, the rapid production of prototypes. The main problems which are encountered at present relate to the input of knowledge derived from experience, the qualification of the contents of the knowledge bases and to the interfacing to technical processes, as real time work is required in such cases. However, the practical use of expert systems in reactor safety is expected to make considerable progress. The following preferred fields should be mentioned: knowledge bases and analysis tools for safety investigations, diagnostic and practising systems for safe operation and, above all in the field of accident management, trainers, in-situ guiding systems or information systems in supraregional guiding centers. (orig./DG) [de

  10. Design of groundwater pollution expert system: forward chaining and interfacing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mongkon Ta-oun; Mohamed Daud; Mohd Zohadie Bardaie; Shamshuddin Jusop

    2000-01-01

    The groundwater pollution expert system (GWPES was developed by C Language Integrate Production System (CLEPS). The control techniques of this system consider some conclusion and then attempts to prove it by searching for supportive information from the database. The inference process goes in forward chaining of this system such as predicting groundwater pollution vulnerability, predicting the effect of nitrogen fertiliser, agricultural impact and project development on groundwater pollution potential. In GWPES, forward chaining system begins with a matching of inputs with the existing database of groundwater environment and activities impact of the project development. While, interaction between an expert system and user is conducted in simple English language. The interaction is highly interactive. A basis design with simple Graphic User Interface (GUI) to input data and by asking simple questions. (author)

  11. Energy efficiency enhancement in cement factories using expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Effatnejad, R.; Jadih, S.

    2001-01-01

    Full text : In this paper, expert system for energy efficiency in cement industry is presented. Due to the fact that cement manufacturing project in these factories are similar, so in main parts knowing the consumption origins and save potential and existing approaches can be similar. In this method, via expert system software of prolog AH types of energy consumption and investment costs are listed in which method of best first search and innovative search have been used and by forming knowledge base, targeting to get best approaches is presented. The obtained results, regarding the executed limits, will be displayed in the output of program and this program can be given the best decision about energy management in cement factories

  12. The expert assistant in accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goddard, A.J.H.; Cannell, R.J.

    1990-01-01

    In the event of a nuclear accident in proximity to an urban area, the consequences resulting from the complex processes of environmental transport of radioactivity would require complex countermeasures. Emphasis has been placed on either modelling the potential effects of such an event on the population, or on attempting to predict the geographical evolution of the release. Less emphasis has been placed on the development of accident management aids with a in-built data acquisition capability. Given the problems of predicting the evolution of an accidental release of activity, more emphasis should be placed on the development of small regional systems specifically engineered to acquire and display environmental data in the most efficaceous form possible. A wealth of information can be obtained from appropriately-sited outstations which can aid those responsible for countermeasures in their decision making processes. The substantial volume of data which would arrive within the duration and during the aftermath of an accident requires skilled interpretation under conditions of considerable stress. It is necessary that a management aid notonly presents these data in a rapidly assimilable form, but is capable of making intelligent decisions of its own, on such matters as information display priority and the polling frequency of outstations. The requirement is for an expert assistant. The XERSES accident management aid has been designed with the foregoing features in mind. Intended for covering regions up to approximately 100 kms square, it links with between 1 and 64 outstations supplying a variety of environmental data. Under quiescent conditions the system will operate unattended, raising alarms remotely only when detecting abnormal conditions. Under emergency conditions, the system automatically adjusts such operating parameters as data acquisition rate

  13. Detecting malingering: a survey of experts' practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slick, Daniel J; Tan, Jing E; Strauss, Esther H; Hultsch, David F

    2004-06-01

    A survey addressing practices of 'expert' neuropsychologists in handling financial compensation claim or personal injury litigation cases was carried out. Potential participants were identified by publication history. Responses were obtained from 24 out of the 39 neuropsychologists who were surveyed. Approximately 79% of the respondents reported using at least one specialized technique for detecting malingering in every litigant assessment. Half stated that they always give specialized tests at the beginning of the assessment. The Rey 15-Item test and the Test of Memory Malingering were the most frequently reported measures. Respondents also reported frequent use of 'malingering' indexes from standard neuropsychological tests. Reported base-rates varied, but the majority of respondents indicated that at least 10% of the litigants they assessed in the last year were definitely malingering. Respondents were split on the practice of routinely giving warnings at the outset of assessments that suboptimal performance may be detected. However, when the client's motivational status was suspect, more than half (58.3%) altered their assessment routine at least on some occasions, by encouraging good effort (70.8%) or administering additional SVTs. A minority directly confronted or warned clients (25%), terminated the examination earlier than planned (16.6%), or contacted the referring attorney immediately (29.2%). Respondents almost always stated some opinion regarding indicators of invalidity in written reports (95%). However, 41.7% rarely used the term 'malingering' and 12.5% never used the term. Most respondents (>80%) instead stated that the test results are invalid, inconsistent with the severity of the injury or indicative of exaggeration. Copyright 2003 National Academy of Neuropsychology

  14. Flow cytometric sexing of spider sperm reveals an equal sperm production ratio in a female-biased species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vanthournout, Bram; Deswarte, K; Hammad, H

    2014-01-01

    research. Pinpointing the underlying mechanism of sex ratio bias is challenging owing to the multitude of potential sex ratio-biasing factors. In the dwarf spider, Oedothorax gibbosus, infection with the bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia results in a female bias. However, pedigree analysis reveals...

  15. Use of expert systems in nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-02-01

    One dominant aspect of improvement in safe nuclear power plant operation is the very high speed in the development and introduction of computer technologies. This development commenced recently when advanced control technology was incorporated into the nuclear industry. This led to an increasing implementation of information displays, annunciator windows and other devices inside the control room, eventually overburdening the control room operator with detailed information. Expert systems are a further step in this direction being designed to apply large knowledge bases to solve practical problems. These ''intelligent'' systems have to incorporate enough knowledge to reach expert levels of importance and represent a very advanced man-machine interface. The aims of the Technical Committee were addressed by the three Working Groups and summarized in Sections 2, 3 and 4 of this report. Section 2 summarizes the results and discussions on the current capabilities of expert systems and identifies features for the future development and use of Expert Systems in Nuclear Power Plants. Section 3 provides an overview of the discussions and investigations into the current status of Expert Systems in NPPs. This section develops a method for assessing the overall benefit of different applications and recommends a broad strategy for priority developments of Expert Systems in NPPs. Section 4 assesses the overall use of PSA type studies in Expert Systems in NPPs and identifies specific features to be adopted in the design of these systems in future applications. The conclusions of the three Working Groups are presented in Section 5. The 15 papers presented at the meeting formed the Annex of this document. A separate abstract was prepared for each of these papers. Refs, figs, tabs and pictures

  16. Matrilateral Bias in Human Grandmothering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Daly

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Children receive more care and resources from their maternal grandmothers than from their paternal grandmothers. This asymmetry is the “matrilateral bias” in grandmaternal investment. Here, we synopsize the evolutionary theories that predict such a bias, and review evidence of its cross-cultural generality and magnitude. Evolutionists have long maintained that investing in a daughter’s child yields greater fitness returns, on average, than investing in a son’s child because of paternity uncertainty: the son’s putative progeny may have been sired by someone else. Recent theoretical work has identified an additional natural selective basis for the matrilateral bias that may be no less important: supporting grandchildren lightens the load on their mother, increasing her capacity to pursue her fitness in other ways, and if she invests those gains either in her natal relatives or in children of a former or future partner, fitness returns accrue to the maternal, but not the paternal, grandmother. In modern democracies, where kinship is reckoned bilaterally and no postmarital residence norms restrict grandmaternal access to grandchildren, many studies have found large matrilateral biases in contact, childcare, and emotional closeness. In other societies, patrilineal ideology and postmarital residence with the husband’s kin (virilocality might be expected to have produced a patrilateral bias instead, but the available evidence refutes this hypothesis. In hunter-gatherers, regardless of professed norms concerning kinship and residence, mothers get needed help at and after childbirth from their mothers, not their mothers-in-law. In traditional agricultural and pastoral societies, patrilineal and virilocal norms are common, but young mothers still turn to their natal families for crucial help, and several studies have documented benefits, including reduced child mortality, associated with access to maternal, but not paternal, grandmothers. Even

  17. Effects of limiter biasing on the ATF torsatron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uckan, T.; Baylor, L.R.; Bell, J.D.; Bigelow, T.S.; England, A.C.; Harris, J.H.; Isler, R.C.; Jernigan, T.C.; Lyon, J.F.; Ma, C.H.; Mioduszewski, P.K.; Murakami, M.; Rasmussen, D.A.; Wilgen, J.B.; Aceto, S.C.; Zielinski, J.J.

    1992-09-01

    Positive limiter biasing on the currentless Advanced Toroidal Facility (ATF) torsatron produces a significant increase in the particle confinement with no improvement in the energy confinement. Experiments have been carried out in 1-T plasmas with ∼400 kill of electron cyclotron heating ECM. Two rail limiters located at the last closed flux surface (LCFS), one at the top and one at the bottom of the device, are biased at positive and negative potentials with respect to the vessel. When the limiters are positively biased at up to 300 V, the density increases sharply to the ECH cutoff value. At the same time, the H α radiation drops, indicating that the particle confinement improves. When the density is kept constant, the H α radiation is further reduced and there is almost no change in the plasma stored energy. Under these conditions, the density profile becomes peaked and the electric field becomes outward-pointing outside the LCFS and more negative inside the LCFS. In contrast, negative biasing yields some reduction of the density and stored energy at constant gas feed, and the plasma potential profile remains the same. Biasing has almost no effect on the intrinsic impurity levels in the plasma

  18. Bias-correction in vector autoregressive models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    2014-01-01

    We analyze the properties of various methods for bias-correcting parameter estimates in both stationary and non-stationary vector autoregressive models. First, we show that two analytical bias formulas from the existing literature are in fact identical. Next, based on a detailed simulation study......, we show that when the model is stationary this simple bias formula compares very favorably to bootstrap bias-correction, both in terms of bias and mean squared error. In non-stationary models, the analytical bias formula performs noticeably worse than bootstrapping. Both methods yield a notable...... improvement over ordinary least squares. We pay special attention to the risk of pushing an otherwise stationary model into the non-stationary region of the parameter space when correcting for bias. Finally, we consider a recently proposed reduced-bias weighted least squares estimator, and we find...

  19. The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2012-01-01

    This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)

  20. Short Communication: Gender Bias and Stigmatization against ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Short Communication: Gender Bias and Stigmatization against Women Living with ... In Ethiopia, HIV/AIDS is highly stigmatized due to the fact that sexual ... bias, socio-economic situations and traditional beliefs contribute, individually and in ...