Persistent bias in expert judgments about free will and moral responsibility: a test of the expertise defense.

Science.gov (United States)

Schulz, Eric; Cokely, Edward T; Feltz, Adam

2011-12-01

Many philosophers appeal to intuitions to support some philosophical views. However, there is reason to be concerned about this practice as scientific evidence has documented systematic bias in philosophically relevant intuitions as a function of seemingly irrelevant features (e.g., personality). One popular defense used to insulate philosophers from these concerns holds that philosophical expertise eliminates the influence of these extraneous factors. Here, we test this assumption. We present data suggesting that verifiable philosophical expertise in the free will debate-as measured by a reliable and validated test of expert knowledge-does not eliminate the influence of one important extraneous feature (i.e., the heritable personality trait extraversion) on judgments concerning freedom and moral responsibility. These results suggest that, in at least some important cases, the expertise defense fails. Implications for the practice of philosophy, experimental philosophy, and applied ethics are discussed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Structural Estimation of Expert Strategic Bias: The Case of Movie Reviewers

OpenAIRE

Camara, Fanny; Dupuis, Nicolas

2014-01-01

We develop the first structural estimation of reputational cheap-talk games using data on movie reviews released in the US between 2004 and 2013. We identify and estimate movies' priors, as well as movie reviewers' abilities and strategic biases. We find that reviewers adopt reporting strategies that are consistent with the predictions of the literature on reputational cheap-talk. The average conservatism bias for low prior movies lies between 8 and 11%, depending on the specifications of the...

Potential for parasite-induced biases in aquatic invertebrate population studies

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, Justin D.L.; Mushet, David M.; Stockwell, Craig A.

2014-01-01

Recent studies highlight the need to include estimates of detection/capture probability in population studies. This need is particularly important in studies where detection and/or capture probability is influenced by parasite-induced behavioral alterations. We assessed potential biases associated with sampling a population of the amphipod Gammarus lacustris in the presence of Polymorphus spp. acanthocephalan parasites shown to increase positive phototaxis in their amphipod hosts. We trapped G. lacustris at two water depths (benthic and surface) and compared number of captures and number of parasitized individuals at each depth. While we captured the greatest number of G. lacustris individuals in benthic traps, parasitized individuals were captured most often in surface traps. These results reflect the phototaxic movement of infected individuals from benthic locations to sunlit surface waters. We then explored the influence of varying infection rates on a simulated population held at a constant level of abundance. Simulations resulted in increasingly biased abundance estimates as infection rates increased. Our results highlight the need to consider parasite-induced biases when quantifying detection and/or capture probability in studies of aquatic invertebrate populations.

Examining Event-Related Potential (ERP) correlates of decision bias in recognition memory judgments.

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Holger; Windmann, Sabine

2014-01-01

Memory judgments can be based on accurate memory information or on decision bias (the tendency to report that an event is part of episodic memory when one is in fact unsure). Event related potentials (ERP) correlates are important research tools for elucidating the dynamics underlying memory judgments but so far have been established only for investigations of accurate old/new discrimination. To identify the ERP correlates of bias, and observe how these interact with ERP correlates of memory, we conducted three experiments that manipulated decision bias within participants via instructions during recognition memory tests while their ERPs were recorded. In Experiment 1, the bias manipulation was performed between blocks of trials (automatized bias) and compared to trial-by-trial shifts of bias in accord with an external cue (flexibly controlled bias). In Experiment 2, the bias manipulation was performed at two different levels of accurate old/new discrimination as the memory strength of old (studied) items was varied. In Experiment 3, the bias manipulation was added to another, bottom-up driven manipulation of bias induced via familiarity. In the first two Experiments, and in the low familiarity condition of Experiment 3, we found evidence of an early frontocentral ERP component at 320 ms poststimulus (the FN320) that was sensitive to the manipulation of bias via instruction, with more negative amplitudes indexing more liberal bias. By contrast, later during the trial (500-700 ms poststimulus), bias effects interacted with old/new effects across all three experiments. Results suggest that the decision criterion is typically activated early during recognition memory trials, and is integrated with retrieved memory signals and task-specific processing demands later during the trial. More generally, the findings demonstrate how ERPs can help to specify the dynamics of recognition memory processes under top-down and bottom-up controlled retrieval conditions.

Examining Event-Related Potential (ERP) Correlates of Decision Bias in Recognition Memory Judgments

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Holger; Windmann, Sabine

2014-01-01

Memory judgments can be based on accurate memory information or on decision bias (the tendency to report that an event is part of episodic memory when one is in fact unsure). Event related potentials (ERP) correlates are important research tools for elucidating the dynamics underlying memory judgments but so far have been established only for investigations of accurate old/new discrimination. To identify the ERP correlates of bias, and observe how these interact with ERP correlates of memory, we conducted three experiments that manipulated decision bias within participants via instructions during recognition memory tests while their ERPs were recorded. In Experiment 1, the bias manipulation was performed between blocks of trials (automatized bias) and compared to trial-by-trial shifts of bias in accord with an external cue (flexibly controlled bias). In Experiment 2, the bias manipulation was performed at two different levels of accurate old/new discrimination as the memory strength of old (studied) items was varied. In Experiment 3, the bias manipulation was added to another, bottom-up driven manipulation of bias induced via familiarity. In the first two Experiments, and in the low familiarity condition of Experiment 3, we found evidence of an early frontocentral ERP component at 320 ms poststimulus (the FN320) that was sensitive to the manipulation of bias via instruction, with more negative amplitudes indexing more liberal bias. By contrast, later during the trial (500–700 ms poststimulus), bias effects interacted with old/new effects across all three experiments. Results suggest that the decision criterion is typically activated early during recognition memory trials, and is integrated with retrieved memory signals and task-specific processing demands later during the trial. More generally, the findings demonstrate how ERPs can help to specify the dynamics of recognition memory processes under top-down and bottom-up controlled retrieval conditions. PMID

Examining Event-Related Potential (ERP correlates of decision bias in recognition memory judgments.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Holger Hill

Full Text Available Memory judgments can be based on accurate memory information or on decision bias (the tendency to report that an event is part of episodic memory when one is in fact unsure. Event related potentials (ERP correlates are important research tools for elucidating the dynamics underlying memory judgments but so far have been established only for investigations of accurate old/new discrimination. To identify the ERP correlates of bias, and observe how these interact with ERP correlates of memory, we conducted three experiments that manipulated decision bias within participants via instructions during recognition memory tests while their ERPs were recorded. In Experiment 1, the bias manipulation was performed between blocks of trials (automatized bias and compared to trial-by-trial shifts of bias in accord with an external cue (flexibly controlled bias. In Experiment 2, the bias manipulation was performed at two different levels of accurate old/new discrimination as the memory strength of old (studied items was varied. In Experiment 3, the bias manipulation was added to another, bottom-up driven manipulation of bias induced via familiarity. In the first two Experiments, and in the low familiarity condition of Experiment 3, we found evidence of an early frontocentral ERP component at 320 ms poststimulus (the FN320 that was sensitive to the manipulation of bias via instruction, with more negative amplitudes indexing more liberal bias. By contrast, later during the trial (500-700 ms poststimulus, bias effects interacted with old/new effects across all three experiments. Results suggest that the decision criterion is typically activated early during recognition memory trials, and is integrated with retrieved memory signals and task-specific processing demands later during the trial. More generally, the findings demonstrate how ERPs can help to specify the dynamics of recognition memory processes under top-down and bottom-up controlled retrieval conditions.

Bias against research on gender bias.

Science.gov (United States)

Cislak, Aleksandra; Formanowicz, Magdalena; Saguy, Tamar

2018-01-01

The bias against women in academia is a documented phenomenon that has had detrimental consequences, not only for women, but also for the quality of science. First, gender bias in academia affects female scientists, resulting in their underrepresentation in academic institutions, particularly in higher ranks. The second type of gender bias in science relates to some findings applying only to male participants, which produces biased knowledge. Here, we identify a third potentially powerful source of gender bias in academia: the bias against research on gender bias. In a bibliometric investigation covering a broad range of social sciences, we analyzed published articles on gender bias and race bias and established that articles on gender bias are funded less often and published in journals with a lower Impact Factor than articles on comparable instances of social discrimination. This result suggests the possibility of an underappreciation of the phenomenon of gender bias and related research within the academic community. Addressing this meta-bias is crucial for the further examination of gender inequality, which severely affects many women across the world.

Stabilization of electron beam spot size by self bias potential

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwan, T.J.T.; Moir, D.C.; Snell, C.M.; Kang, M.

1998-01-01

In high resolution flash x-ray imaging technology the electric field developed between the electron beam and the converter target is large enough to draw ions from the target surface. The ions provide fractional neutralization and cause the electron beam to focus radially inward, and the focal point subsequently moves upstream due to the expansion of the ion column. A self-bias target concept is proposed and verified via computer simulation that the electron charge deposited on the target can generate an electric potential, which can effectively limit the ion motion and thereby stabilize the growth of the spot size. A target chamber using the self bias target concept was designed and tested in the Integrated Test Stand (ITS). The authors have obtained good agreement between computer simulation and experiment

Atomic-Scale Simulation of Electrochemical Processes at Electrode/Water Interfaces under Referenced Bias Potential.

Science.gov (United States)

Bouzid, Assil; Pasquarello, Alfredo

2018-04-19

Based on constant Fermi-level molecular dynamics and a proper alignment scheme, we perform simulations of the Pt(111)/water interface under variable bias potential referenced to the standard hydrogen electrode (SHE). Our scheme yields a potential of zero charge μ pzc of ∼0.22 eV relative to the SHE and a double layer capacitance C dl of ≃19 μF cm -2 , in excellent agreement with experimental measurements. In addition, we study the structural reorganization of the electrical double layer for bias potentials ranging from -0.92 eV to +0.44 eV and find that O down configurations, which are dominant at potentials above the pzc, reorient to favor H down configurations as the measured potential becomes negative. Our modeling scheme allows one to not only access atomic-scale processes at metal/water interfaces, but also to quantitatively estimate macroscopic electrochemical quantities.

Minimising bias in the forensic evaluation of suspicious paediatric injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Skellern, Catherine

2015-08-01

In the rules of evidence in all legal jurisdictions, medical experts are required to maintain objectivity when providing opinions. When interpreting medical evidence, doctors must recognise, acknowledge and manage uncertainties to ensure their evidence is reliable to legal decision-makers. Even in the forensic sciences such as DNA analysis, implicit bias has been shown to influence how results are interpreted from cognitive and contextual biases unconsciously operating. In cases involving allegations of child abuse there has been significant exposure in the media, popular magazines, legal journals and in the published medical literature debating the reliability of medical evidence given in these proceedings. In these cases judges have historically been critical of experts they perceived had sacrificed objectivity for advocacy by having an investment in a 'side'. This paper firstly discusses the issue of bias then describes types of cognitive biases identified from psychological research applied to forensic evidence including adversarial bias, context bias, confirmation bias and explains how terminology can influence the communication of opinion. It follows with previously published guidelines of how to reduce the risk of bias compromising objectivity in forensic practices then concludes with my own recommendations of practices that can be used by child protection paediatricians and within an organisation when conducting forensic evaluations of suspicious childhood injury to improve objectivity in formulation of opinion evidence. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying GRADE-CERQual to qualitative evidence synthesis findings-paper 7: understanding the potential impacts of dissemination bias.

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, Andrew; Lewin, Simon; Glenton, Claire; Munthe-Kaas, Heather; Toews, Ingrid; Noyes, Jane; Rashidian, Arash; Berg, Rigmor C; Nyakang'o, Brenda; Meerpohl, Joerg J

2018-01-25

The GRADE-CERQual (Confidence in Evidence from Reviews of Qualitative research) approach has been developed by the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) Working Group. The approach has been developed to support the use of findings from qualitative evidence syntheses in decision-making, including guideline development and policy formulation. CERQual includes four components for assessing how much confidence to place in findings from reviews of qualitative research (also referred to as qualitative evidence syntheses): (1) methodological limitations, (2) coherence, (3) adequacy of data and (4) relevance. This paper is part of a series providing guidance on how to apply CERQual and focuses on a probable fifth component, dissemination bias. Given its exploratory nature, we are not yet able to provide guidance on applying this potential component of the CERQual approach. Instead, we focus on how dissemination bias might be conceptualised in the context of qualitative research and the potential impact dissemination bias might have on an overall assessment of confidence in a review finding. We also set out a proposed research agenda in this area. We developed this paper by gathering feedback from relevant research communities, searching MEDLINE and Web of Science to identify and characterise the existing literature discussing or assessing dissemination bias in qualitative research and its wider implications, developing consensus through project group meetings, and conducting an online survey of the extent, awareness and perceptions of dissemination bias in qualitative research. We have defined dissemination bias in qualitative research as a systematic distortion of the phenomenon of interest due to selective dissemination of studies or individual study findings. Dissemination bias is important for qualitative evidence syntheses as the selective dissemination of qualitative studies and/or study findings may distort our understanding of

Are Managed Futures Indices Telling Truth? Biases in CTA Databases and Proposals of Potential Enhancements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam Zaremba

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Managed futures are an alternative asset class which has recently became considerably popular among investment industry. However, due to its characteristics, access to managed futures historical performance statistics is relatively confined. All available information originates from commercial and academic databases, reporting to which is entirely voluntary. This situation results in series of biases which distort the managed futures performance in the eyes of investors. The paper consists of two parts. First, the author reviews and describes various biases that influence the reliability of the managed futures indices and databases. The second section encompasses author’s proposals of potential enhancements, which aim to reduce the impact of the biases in order to derive a benchmark that could better reflect characteristics of managed futures investment from the point of view of a potential investor.

Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

1999-12-01

Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

1999-01-01

Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

An expert system based software sizing tool, phase 2

Science.gov (United States)

Friedlander, David

1990-01-01

A software tool was developed for predicting the size of a future computer program at an early stage in its development. The system is intended to enable a user who is not expert in Software Engineering to estimate software size in lines of source code with an accuracy similar to that of an expert, based on the program's functional specifications. The project was planned as a knowledge based system with a field prototype as the goal of Phase 2 and a commercial system planned for Phase 3. The researchers used techniques from Artificial Intelligence and knowledge from human experts and existing software from NASA's COSMIC database. They devised a classification scheme for the software specifications, and a small set of generic software components that represent complexity and apply to large classes of programs. The specifications are converted to generic components by a set of rules and the generic components are input to a nonlinear sizing function which makes the final prediction. The system developed for this project predicted code sizes from the database with a bias factor of 1.06 and a fluctuation factor of 1.77, an accuracy similar to that of human experts but without their significant optimistic bias.

A Classroom Demonstration of Potential Biases in the Subjective Interpretation of Projective Tests.

Science.gov (United States)

Wiederman, Michael W.

1999-01-01

Suggests that instructors teaching psychological assessment can use a demonstration to illustrate potential biases when subjectively interpreting response to projective stimuli. Outlines the classroom procedure, notes styles of learning involved, and presents a summary of student evaluations. (DSK)

Information order and outcome framing: an assesment of judgment bias in a naturalistic decision-making context.

Science.gov (United States)

Perrin, B M; Barnett, B J; Walrath, L; Grossman, J D

2001-01-01

Findings that decision makers can come to different conclusions depending on the order in which they receive information have been termed the "information order bias." When trained, experienced individuals exhibit similar behaviors; however, it has been argued that this result is not a bias, but rather, a pattern-matching process. This study provides a critical examination of this claim. It also assesses both experts' susceptibility to an outcome framing bias and the effects of varying task loads on judgment. Using a simulation of state-of-the-art ship defensive systems operated by experienced, active-duty U.S. Navy officers, we found no evidence of a framing bias, while task load had a minor, but systematic effect. The order in which information was received had a significant impact, with the effect being consistent with a judgment bias. Nonetheless, we note that pattern-matching processes, similar to those that produce inferential and reconstructive effects on memory, could also explain our results. Actual or potential applications of this research include decision support system interfaces or training programs that might be developed to reduce judgment bias.

Survey of Expert Opinion on Intelligence: Causes of International Differences in Cognitive Ability Tests.

Science.gov (United States)

Rindermann, Heiner; Becker, David; Coyle, Thomas R

2016-01-01

Following Snyderman and Rothman (1987, 1988), we surveyed expert opinions on the current state of intelligence research. This report examines expert opinions on causes of international differences in student assessment and psychometric IQ test results. Experts were surveyed about the importance of culture, genes, education (quantity and quality), wealth, health, geography, climate, politics, modernization, sampling error, test knowledge, discrimination, test bias, and migration. The importance of these factors was evaluated for diverse countries, regions, and groups including Finland, East Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Europe, the Arabian-Muslim world, Latin America, Israel, Jews in the West, Roma (gypsies), and Muslim immigrants. Education was rated by N = 71 experts as the most important cause of international ability differences. Genes were rated as the second most relevant factor but also had the highest variability in ratings. Culture, health, wealth, modernization, and politics were the next most important factors, whereas other factors such as geography, climate, test bias, and sampling error were less important. The paper concludes with a discussion of limitations of the survey (e.g., response rates and validity of expert opinions).

Links among available integral benchmarks and differential date evaluations, computational biases and uncertainties, and nuclear criticality safety biases on potential MOX production throughput

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goluoglu, S.; Hopper, C.M.

2004-01-01

Through the use of Oak Ridge National Laboratory's recently developed and applied sensitivity and uncertainty computational analysis techniques, this paper presents the relevance and importance of available and needed integral benchmarks and differential data evaluations impacting potential MOX production throughput determinations relative to low-moderated MOX fuel blending operations. The relevance and importance in the availability of or need for critical experiment benchmarks and data evaluations are presented in terms of computational biases as influenced by computational and experimental sensitivities and uncertainties relative to selected MOX production powder blending processes. Recent developments for estimating the safe margins of subcriticality for assuring nuclear criticality safety for process approval are presented. In addition, the impact of the safe margins (due to computational biases and uncertainties) on potential MOX production throughput will also be presented. (author)

Environmental metabarcodes for insects: in silico PCR reveals potential for taxonomic bias.

Science.gov (United States)

Clarke, Laurence J; Soubrier, Julien; Weyrich, Laura S; Cooper, Alan

2014-11-01

Studies of insect assemblages are suited to the simultaneous DNA-based identification of multiple taxa known as metabarcoding. To obtain accurate estimates of diversity, metabarcoding markers ideally possess appropriate taxonomic coverage to avoid PCR-amplification bias, as well as sufficient sequence divergence to resolve species. We used in silico PCR to compare the taxonomic coverage and resolution of newly designed insect metabarcodes (targeting 16S) with that of existing markers [16S and cytochrome oxidase c subunit I (COI)] and then compared their efficiency in vitro. Existing metabarcoding primers amplified in silico 90% coverage. Furthermore, metabarcodes targeting COI appeared to introduce taxonomic PCR-amplification bias, typically amplifying a greater percentage of Lepidoptera and Diptera species, while failing to amplify certain orders in silico. To test whether bias predicted in silico was observed in vitro, we created an artificial DNA blend containing equal amounts of DNA from 14 species, representing 11 insect orders and one arachnid. We PCR-amplified the blend using five primer sets, targeting either COI or 16S, with high-throughput amplicon sequencing yielding more than 6 million reads. In vitro results typically corresponded to in silico PCR predictions, with newly designed 16S primers detecting 11 insect taxa present, thus providing equivalent or better taxonomic coverage than COI metabarcodes. Our results demonstrate that in silico PCR is a useful tool for predicting taxonomic bias in mixed template PCR and that researchers should be wary of potential bias when selecting metabarcoding markers. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On the use of expert judgments to estimate the pressure increment in the Sequoyah containment at vessel breach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chhibber, S.; Apostolakis, G.E.; Okrent, D.

1994-01-01

The use of expert judgments in probabilistic risk assessments has become common. Simple aggregation methods have often been used with the result that expert biases and interexpert dependence are often neglected. Sophisticated theoretical models for the use of expert opinions have been proposed that offer ways of incorporating expert biases and dependence, but they have not found wide acceptance because of the difficulty and rigor of these methods. Practical guidance on the use of the versatile Bayesian expert judgment aggregation model is provided. In particular, the case study of pressure increment due to vessel breach in the Sequoyah nuclear power plant is chosen to illustrate how phenomenological uncertainty can be addressed by using the Bayesian aggregation model. The results indicate that the Bayesian aggregation model is a suitable candidate model for aggregating expert judgments, especially if there is phenomenological uncertainty. Phenomenological uncertainty can be represented through the dependence parameter of the Bayesian model. This is because the sharing of assumptions by the experts tends to introduce dependence between the experts. The extent of commonality in the experts' beliefs can be characterized by assessing their interdependence. The results indicate that uncertainty is possibly underestimated by ignoring dependence

An empirical study on memory bias situations and correction strategies in ERP effort estimation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Erasmus, I.P.; Daneva, Maia; Amrahamsson, Pekka; Corral, Luis; Olivo, Markku; Russo, Barbara

2016-01-01

An Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) project estimation process often relies on experts of various backgrounds to contribute judgments based on their professional experience. Such expert judgments however may not be biasfree. De-biasing techniques therefore have been proposed in the software

The Different Inhibition of Return (IOR Effects of Emergency Managerial Experts and Novices: An Event-Related Potentials Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rong Cao

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Inhibition of return (IOR is an important effect of attention. However, the IOR of emergency managerial experts is unknown. By employing emergency and natural scene pictures in expert-novice paradigm, the present study explored the neural activity underlying the IOR effects for emergency managerial experts and novices. In behavioral results, there were no differences of IOR effects between novices and emergency managerial experts, while the event-related potentials (ERPs results were different between novices and experts. In Experiment 1 (novice group, ERPs results showed no any IOR was robust at both stimulus-onset asynchrony (SOA of 200 ms and 400 ms. In Experiment 2 (expert group, ERPs results showed an enhanced N2 at SOA of 200 ms and attenuated P3 at cued location in the right parietal lobe and adjacent brain regions than uncued location at SOA of 200 ms. The findings of the two experiments showed that, relative to the novices, IOR for the emergency managerial experts was robust, and dominated in the right parietal lobe and adjacent brain regions, suggesting more flexible attentional processing and higher visual search efficiency of the emergency managerial experts. The findings indicate that the P3, possible N2, over the right parietal lobe and adjacent brain regions are the biological indicators for IOR elicited by post-cued emergency pictures for emergency managerial experts.

On the "general acceptance" of eyewitness testimony research. A new survey of the experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Kassin, S M; Tubb, V A; Hosch, H M; Memon, A

2001-05-01

In light of recent advances, this study updated a prior survey of eyewitness experts (S. M. Kassin, P. C. Ellsworth, & V. L. Smith, 1989). Sixty-four psychologists were asked about their courtroom experiences and opinions on 30 eyewitness phenomena. By an agreement rate of at least 80%, there was a strong consensus that the following phenomena are sufficiently reliable to present in court: the wording of questions, lineup instructions, confidence malleability, mug-shot-induced bias, postevent information, child witness suggestibility, attitudes and expectations, hypnotic suggestibility, alcoholic intoxication, the crossrace bias, weapon focus, the accuracy-confidence correlation, the forgetting curve, exposure time, presentation format, and unconscious transference. Results also indicate that these experts set high standards before agreeing to testify. Despite limitations, these results should help to shape expert testimony so that it more accurately represents opinions in the scientific community.

Computer Based Expert Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Parry, James D.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

1985-01-01

Claims knowledge-based expert computer systems can meet needs of rural schools for affordable expert advice and support and will play an important role in the future of rural education. Describes potential applications in prediction, interpretation, diagnosis, remediation, planning, monitoring, and instruction. (NEC)

Results of expert response when forming an exhaustive list of potential risks of constructions projects using energy efficient technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryzhkova Anastasiya Igorevna

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The author deals with the most widely used methods of risk events identification. The expert response method is most applicable for construction projects using energy efficient technologies. The article presents the results of an opinion poll of the professional expert community using expert response method, which is aimed to identify the most likely potential “pure” risk of construction projects with energy-efficient technologies in use. 74 experts representing different levels of the construction process were polled: customers and directors of construction companies, project managers, risk managers, advisors. The answers were collected during private talks and also using a special website Survey Monkey. Experts from different countries took part: Russia, Great Britain, Austria, Luxemburg, Switzerland and Norway. Also the article presents the expert evaluation of the “effect” of risk implementation on the cost of a project, implementation time, the product quality, the environment and safety on the construction site.

Preserving experience through expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jelinek, J.B.; Weidman, S.H.

1989-01-01

Expert systems technology, one of the branches in the field of computerized artificial intelligence, has existed for >30 yr but only recently has been made available on commercially standard hardware and software platforms. An expert system can be defined as any method of encoding knowledge by representing that knowledge as a collection of facts or objects. Decisions are made by the expert program by obtaining data about the problem or situation and correlating encoded facts (knowledge) to the data until a conclusion can be reached. Such conclusions can be relayed to the end user as expert advice. Realizing the potential of this technology, General Electric (GE) Nuclear Energy (GENE) has initiated a development program in expert systems applications; this technology offers the potential for packaging, distributing, and preserving nuclear experience in a software form. The paper discusses application fields, effective applications, and knowledge acquisition and knowledge verification

Exponential dependence of potential barrier height on biased voltages of inorganic/organic static induction transistor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Yong; Yang Jianhong; Cai Xueyuan; Wang Zaixing

2010-01-01

The exponential dependence of the potential barrier height φ c on the biased voltages of the inorganic/organic static induction transistor (SIT/OSIT) through a normalized approach in the low-current regime is presented. It shows a more accurate description than the linear expression of the potential barrier height. Through the verification of the numerical calculated and experimental results, the exponential dependence of φ c on the applied biases can be used to derive the I-V characteristics. For both SIT and OSIT, the calculated results, using the presented relationship, are agreeable with the experimental results. Compared to the previous linear relationship, the exponential description of φ c can contribute effectively to reduce the error between the theoretical and experimental results of the I-V characteristics. (semiconductor devices)

Lessons Learned- The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probablistic Seismic Hazard

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

K.J. Coppersmith; R.C. Perman; R.R. Youngs

2006-05-10

Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses provide the opportunity, indeed the requirement, to quantify the uncertainties in important inputs to the analysis. The locations of future earthquakes, their recurrence rates and maximum size, and the ground motions that will result at a site of interest are all quantities that require careful consideration because they are uncertain. The earliest PSHA models [Cornell, 1968] provided solely for the randomness or aleatory variability in these quantities. The most sophisticated seismic hazard models today, which include quantified uncertainties, are merely more realistic representations of this basic aleatory model. All attempts to quantify uncertainties require expert judgment. Further, all uncertainty models should endeavor to consider the range of views of the larger technical community at the time the hazard analysis is conducted. In some cases, especially for large projects under regulatory review, formal structured methods for eliciting expert judgments have been employed. Experience has shown that certain key elements are required for these assessments to be successful, including: (1) experts should be trained in probability theory, uncertainty quantification, and ways to avoid common cognitive biases; (2) comprehensive and user-friendly databases should be provided to the experts; (3) experts should be required to evaluate all potentially credible hypotheses; (4) workshops and other interactions among the experts and proponents of published viewpoints should be encouraged; (5) elicitations are best conducted in individual interview sessions; (6) feedback should be provided to the experts to give them insight into the significance of alternative assessments to the hazard results; and (7) complete documentation should include the technical basis for all assessments. Case histories are given from seismic hazard analyses in Europe, western North America, and the stable continental region of the United States.

Expert Opinion Analysis on Renewable Hydrogen Storage Systems Potential in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Davide Astiaso Garcia

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Among the several typologies of storage technologies, mainly on different physical principles (mechanical, electrical and chemical, hydrogen produced by power to gas (P2G from renewable energy sources complies with chemical storage principle and is based on the conversion of electrical energy into chemical energy by means of the electrolysis of water which does not produce any toxic or climate-relevant emission. This paper aims to pinpoint the potential uses of renewable hydrogen storage systems in Europe, analysing current and potential locations, regulatory framework, governments’ outlooks, economic issues, and available renewable energy amounts. The expert opinion survey, already used in many research articles on different topics including energy, has been selected as an effective method to produce realistic results. The obtained results highlight strategies and actions to optimize the storage of hydrogen produced by renewables to face varying electricity demand and generation-driven fluctuations reducing the negative effects of the increasing share of renewables in the energy mix of European Countries.

Expert systems: A 5-year perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacAllister, D.J.; Day, R.; McCormack, M.D.

1996-01-01

This paper gives an overview of a major integrated oil company's experience with artificial intelligence (AI) over the last 5 years, with an emphasis on expert systems. The authors chronicle the development of an AI group, including details on development tool selection, project selection strategies, potential pitfalls, and descriptions of several completed expert systems. Small expert systems produced by teams of petroleum technology experts and experienced expert system developers that are focused in well-defined technical areas have produced substantial benefits and accelerated petroleum technology transfer

Negativity bias for sad faces in depression: An event-related potential study.

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Qin; Wei, Juanjuan; Shu, Xiaorui; Feng, Zhengzhi

2016-12-01

Negativity bias in depression has been previously confirmed. However, mainly during a valence category task, it remains unclear how happy or unhappy individuals perceive emotional materials. Moreover, cerebral alteration measurements during a valence judgment task is lacking. The present study aimed to explore a valence judgment of a valence rating task, combined with event-related potential (ERP) recording. Healthy controls, individuals with sub-clinical depression, and patients diagnosed with major depressive disorder (MDD) were recruited. Twenty-four subjects in each group completed a valence rating task, during which the ERP amplitudes were recorded. The MDD group had lower valence scores, faster responses, and greater N1 amplitudes for sad faces, whereas individuals with sub-clinical depression had faster responses and greater P1 amplitudes for all faces but lower valence scores and greater P2 amplitudes for happy faces. The findings suggest the tendency toward a negativity bias in valence ratings in patients with depression supported by behavioral and cerebral evidence, which is a latent trait of depression, possibly associated with the vulnerability of depression. The current study offers the first experimental evidence of cognitive and cerebral biomarkers of negativity bias in valence ratings in depression, which confirms Beck's cognitive theory and gives important direction for clinical therapy. Copyright © 2016 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bias modification training can alter approach bias and chocolate consumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Schumacher, Sophie E; Kemps, Eva; Tiggemann, Marika

2016-01-01

Recent evidence has demonstrated that bias modification training has potential to reduce cognitive biases for attractive targets and affect health behaviours. The present study investigated whether cognitive bias modification training could be applied to reduce approach bias for chocolate and affect subsequent chocolate consumption. A sample of 120 women (18-27 years) were randomly assigned to an approach-chocolate condition or avoid-chocolate condition, in which they were trained to approach or avoid pictorial chocolate stimuli, respectively. Training had the predicted effect on approach bias, such that participants trained to approach chocolate demonstrated an increased approach bias to chocolate stimuli whereas participants trained to avoid such stimuli showed a reduced bias. Further, participants trained to avoid chocolate ate significantly less of a chocolate muffin in a subsequent taste test than participants trained to approach chocolate. Theoretically, results provide support for the dual process model's conceptualisation of consumption as being driven by implicit processes such as approach bias. In practice, approach bias modification may be a useful component of interventions designed to curb the consumption of unhealthy foods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using expert opinion surveys to rank threats to endangered species: a case study with sea turtles.

Science.gov (United States)

Donlan, C Josh; Wingfield, Dana K; Crowder, Larry B; Wilcox, Chris

2010-12-01

Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet-based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at-sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial-based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more-striking pattern was with hazard-based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias-controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans. �

Christiano’s Deliberative Expertism and Choice Architecture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viktor Ivanković

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article explores Thomas Christiano’s account of the moral division of labor in democracy. Christiano’s incorporation of experts serves the purpose of alleviating the epistemic burdens of ordinary citizens in the decision-making process and decreasing the amount of work they would otherwise be required to take on in a modern democracy. The gist of my contribution to the debate is assessing whether Christiano’s account successfully tackles the issues brought about by cognitive biases that people suffer from in communicating their values in decision-making. I argue that Christiano’s notion of experts needs to be extended to choice architects, who possess the knowledge on methods for influencing choice. I also claim that choice architecture is a social fact that an informed deliberative democratic theory needs to deal with.

The Risk of a Halo Bias as a Reason to Keep Students Anonymous during Grading

Science.gov (United States)

Malouff, John M.; Emmerton, Ashley J.; Schutte, Nicola S.

2013-01-01

Experts have advocated anonymous grading as a means of eliminating actual or perceived evaluator bias in subjective student assessment. The utility of anonymity in assessment rests on whether information derived from student identity can unduly influence evaluation. The halo effect provides a conceptual background for why a bias might occur. In…

Junction Potentials Bias Measurements of Ion Exchange Membrane Permselectivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Kingsbury, Ryan S; Flotron, Sophie; Zhu, Shan; Call, Douglas F; Coronell, Orlando

2018-04-17

Ion exchange membranes (IEMs) are versatile materials relevant to a variety of water and waste treatment, energy production, and industrial separation processes. The defining characteristic of IEMs is their ability to selectively allow positive or negative ions to permeate, which is referred to as permselectivity. Measured values of permselectivity that equal unity (corresponding to a perfectly selective membrane) or exceed unity (theoretically impossible) have been reported for cation exchange membranes (CEMs). Such nonphysical results call into question our ability to correctly measure this crucial membrane property. Because weighing errors, temperature, and measurement uncertainty have been shown to not explain these anomalous permselectivity results, we hypothesized that a possible explanation are junction potentials that occur at the tips of reference electrodes. In this work, we tested this hypothesis by comparing permselectivity values obtained from bare Ag/AgCl wire electrodes (which have no junction) to values obtained from single-junction reference electrodes containing two different electrolytes. We show that permselectivity values obtained using reference electrodes with junctions were greater than unity for CEMs. In contrast, electrodes without junctions always produced permselectivities lower than unity. Electrodes with junctions also resulted in artificially low permselectivity values for AEMs compared to electrodes without junctions. Thus, we conclude that junctions in reference electrodes introduce two biases into results in the IEM literature: (i) permselectivity values larger than unity for CEMs and (ii) lower permselectivity values for AEMs compared to those for CEMs. These biases can be avoided by using electrodes without a junction.

The First Expert CAI System

Science.gov (United States)

Feurzeig, Wallace

1984-01-01

The first expert instructional system, the Socratic System, was developed in 1964. One of the earliest applications of this system was in the area of differential diagnosis in clinical medicine. The power of the underlying instructional paradigm was demonstrated and the potential of the approach for valuably supplementing medical instruction was recognized. Twenty years later, despite further educationally significant advances in expert systems technology and enormous reductions in the cost of computers, expert instructional methods have found very little application in medical schools.

The Potential of Computer-Based Expert Systems for Special Educators in Rural Settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Parry, James D.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

Knowledge-based expert computer systems are addressing issues relevant to all special educators, but are particularly relevant in rural settings where human experts are less available because of distance and cost. An expert system is an application of artificial intelligence (AI) that typically engages the user in a dialogue resembling the…

Potential Reporting Bias in Neuroimaging Studies of Sex Differences.

Science.gov (United States)

David, Sean P; Naudet, Florian; Laude, Jennifer; Radua, Joaquim; Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Chu, Isabella; Stefanick, Marcia L; Ioannidis, John P A

2018-04-17

Numerous functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies have reported sex differences. To empirically evaluate for evidence of excessive significance bias in this literature, we searched for published fMRI studies of human brain to evaluate sex differences, regardless of the topic investigated, in Medline and Scopus over 10 years. We analyzed the prevalence of conclusions in favor of sex differences and the correlation between study sample sizes and number of significant foci identified. In the absence of bias, larger studies (better powered) should identify a larger number of significant foci. Across 179 papers, median sample size was n = 32 (interquartile range 23-47.5). A median of 5 foci related to sex differences were reported (interquartile range, 2-9.5). Few articles (n = 2) had titles focused on no differences or on similarities (n = 3) between sexes. Overall, 158 papers (88%) reached "positive" conclusions in their abstract and presented some foci related to sex differences. There was no statistically significant relationship between sample size and the number of foci (-0.048% increase for every 10 participants, p = 0.63). The extremely high prevalence of "positive" results and the lack of the expected relationship between sample size and the number of discovered foci reflect probable reporting bias and excess significance bias in this literature.

Sex differences in event-related potentials and attentional biases to emotional facial stimuli.

Science.gov (United States)

Pfabigan, Daniela M; Lamplmayr-Kragl, Elisabeth; Pintzinger, Nina M; Sailer, Uta; Tran, Ulrich S

2014-01-01

Attentional processes play an important role in the processing of emotional information. Previous research reported attentional biases during stimulus processing in anxiety and depression. However, sex differences in the processing of emotional stimuli and higher prevalence rates of anxiety disorders among women, compared to men, suggest that attentional biases may also differ between the two sexes. The present study used a modified version of the dot probe task with happy, angry, and neutral facial stimuli to investigate the time course of attentional biases in healthy volunteers. Moreover, associations of attentional biases with alexithymia were examined on the behavioral and physiological level. Event-related potentials were measured while 21 participants (11 women) performed the task, utilizing also for the first time a difference wave approach in the analysis to highlight emotion-specific aspects. Women showed overall enhanced probe P1 amplitudes compared to men, in particular after rewarding facial stimuli. Using the difference wave approach, probe P1 amplitudes appeared specifically enhanced with regard to congruently presented happy facial stimuli among women, compared to men. Both methods yielded enhanced probe P1 amplitudes after presentation of the emotional stimulus in the left compared to the right visual hemifield. Probe P1 amplitudes correlated negatively with self-reported alexithymia, most of these correlations were only observable in women. Our results suggest that women orient their attention to a greater extent to facial stimuli than men and corroborate that alexithymia is a correlate of reduced emotional reactivity on a neuronal level. We recommend using a difference wave approach when addressing attentional processes of orientation and disengagement also in future studies.

Sex differences in event-related potentials and attentional biases to emotional facial stimuli

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela M. Pfabigan

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Attentional processes play an important role in the processing of emotional information. Previous research reported attentional biases during stimulus processing in anxiety and depression. However, sex differences in the processing of emotional stimuli and higher prevalence rates of anxiety disorders among women, compared to men, suggest that attentional biases may also differ between the two sexes. The present study used a modified version of the dot probe task with happy, angry, and neutral facial stimuli to investigate the time course of attentional biases in healthy volunteers. Moreover, associations of attentional biases with alexithymia were examined on the behavioral and physiological level. Event-related potentials were measured while 21 participants (11 women performed the task, utilizing also for the first time a difference wave approach in the analysis to highlight emotion-specific aspects. Women showed overall enhanced probe P1 amplitudes compared to men, in particular after rewarding facial stimuli. Under the difference wave approach, probe P1 amplitudes appeared specifically enhanced with regard to congruently presented happy facial stimuli among women, compared to men. Both methods yielded enhanced probe P1 amplitudes after presentation of the emotional stimulus in the left compared to the right visual hemifield. Probe P1 amplitudes correlated negatively with self-reported alexithymia, most of these correlations were only observable in women. Our results suggest that women orient their attention to a greater extent to facial stimuli than men and corroborate that alexithymia is a correlate of reduced emotional reactivity on a neuronal level. We recommend using a difference wave approach when addressing attentional processes of orientation and disengagement also in future studies.

The EU(7)-PIM list: a list of potentially inappropriate medications for older people consented by experts from seven European countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Renom-Guiteras, Anna; Meyer, Gabriele; Thürmann, Petra A

2015-07-01

The aim of the study was to develop a European list of potentially inappropriate medications (PIM) for older people, which can be used for the analysis and comparison of prescribing patterns across European countries and for clinical practice. A preliminary PIM list was developed, based on the German PRISCUS list of potentially inappropriate medications and other PIM lists from the USA, Canada and France. Thirty experts on geriatric prescribing from Estonia, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden participated; eight experts performed a structured expansion of the list, suggesting further medications; twenty-seven experts participated in a two-round Delphi survey assessing the appropriateness of drugs and suggesting dose adjustments and therapeutic alternatives. Finally, twelve experts completed a brief final survey to decide upon issues requiring further consensus. Experts reached a consensus that 282 chemical substances or drug classes from 34 therapeutic groups are PIM for older people; some PIM are restricted to a certain dose or duration of use. The PIM list contains suggestions for dose adjustments and therapeutic alternatives. The European Union (EU)(7)-PIM list is a screening tool, developed with participation of experts from seven European countries, that allows identification and comparison of PIM prescribing patterns for older people across European countries. It can also be used as a guide in clinical practice, although it does not substitute the decision-making process of individualised prescribing for older people. Further research is needed to investigate the feasibility and applicability and, finally, the clinical benefits of the newly developed list.

Bias-corrected estimation in potentially mildly explosive autoregressive models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Haufmann, Hendrik; Kruse, Robinson

This paper provides a comprehensive Monte Carlo comparison of different finite-sample bias-correction methods for autoregressive processes. We consider classic situations where the process is either stationary or exhibits a unit root. Importantly, the case of mildly explosive behaviour is studied...... that the indirect inference approach oers a valuable alternative to other existing techniques. Its performance (measured by its bias and root mean squared error) is balanced and highly competitive across many different settings. A clear advantage is its applicability for mildly explosive processes. In an empirical...

Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

Science.gov (United States)

Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

1994-01-01

Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

Communication: Estimating the initial biasing potential for λ-local-elevation umbrella-sampling (λ-LEUS) simulations via slow growth

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bieler, Noah S.; Hünenberger, Philippe H., E-mail: phil@igc.phys.chem.ethz.ch [Laboratory of Physical Chemistry, ETH Zürich, CH-8093 Zürich (Switzerland)

2014-11-28

In a recent article [Bieler et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 10, 3006–3022 (2014)], we introduced a combination of the λ-dynamics (λD) approach for calculating alchemical free-energy differences and of the local-elevation umbrella-sampling (LEUS) memory-based biasing method to enhance the sampling along the alchemical coordinate. The combined scheme, referred to as λ-LEUS, was applied to the perturbation of hydroquinone to benzene in water as a test system, and found to represent an improvement over thermodynamic integration (TI) in terms of sampling efficiency at equivalent accuracy. However, the preoptimization of the biasing potential required in the λ-LEUS method requires “filling up” all the basins in the potential of mean force. This introduces a non-productive pre-sampling time that is system-dependent, and generally exceeds the corresponding equilibration time in a TI calculation. In this letter, a remedy is proposed to this problem, termed the slow growth memory guessing (SGMG) approach. Instead of initializing the biasing potential to zero at the start of the preoptimization, an approximate potential of mean force is estimated from a short slow growth calculation, and its negative used to construct the initial memory. Considering the same test system as in the preceding article, it is shown that of the application of SGMG in λ-LEUS permits to reduce the preoptimization time by about a factor of four.

Communication: Estimating the initial biasing potential for λ-local-elevation umbrella-sampling (λ-LEUS) simulations via slow growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bieler, Noah S.; Hünenberger, Philippe H.

2014-01-01

In a recent article [Bieler et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 10, 3006–3022 (2014)], we introduced a combination of the λ-dynamics (λD) approach for calculating alchemical free-energy differences and of the local-elevation umbrella-sampling (LEUS) memory-based biasing method to enhance the sampling along the alchemical coordinate. The combined scheme, referred to as λ-LEUS, was applied to the perturbation of hydroquinone to benzene in water as a test system, and found to represent an improvement over thermodynamic integration (TI) in terms of sampling efficiency at equivalent accuracy. However, the preoptimization of the biasing potential required in the λ-LEUS method requires “filling up” all the basins in the potential of mean force. This introduces a non-productive pre-sampling time that is system-dependent, and generally exceeds the corresponding equilibration time in a TI calculation. In this letter, a remedy is proposed to this problem, termed the slow growth memory guessing (SGMG) approach. Instead of initializing the biasing potential to zero at the start of the preoptimization, an approximate potential of mean force is estimated from a short slow growth calculation, and its negative used to construct the initial memory. Considering the same test system as in the preceding article, it is shown that of the application of SGMG in λ-LEUS permits to reduce the preoptimization time by about a factor of four

Decision-making behavior of experts at nuclear power plants. Regulatory focus influence on cognitive heuristics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beck, Johannes

2015-09-01

The goal of this research project was to examine factors, on the basis of regulatory focus theory and the heuristics and biases approach, that influence decision-making processes of experts at nuclear power plants. Findings show that this group applies anchoring (heuristic) when evaluating conjunctive and disjunctive events and that they maintain a constant regulatory focus characteristic. No influence of the experts' characteristic regulatory focus on cognitive heuristics could be established. Theoretical and practical consequences on decision-making behavior of experts are presented. Finally, a method for measuring the use of heuristics especially in the nuclear industry is discussed.

Expert Opinion Is Necessary: Delphi Panel Methodology Facilitates a Scientific Approach to Consensus.

Science.gov (United States)

Hohmann, Erik; Brand, Jefferson C; Rossi, Michael J; Lubowitz, James H

2018-02-01

Our current trend and focus on evidence-based medicine is biased in favor of randomized controlled trials, which are ranked highest in the hierarchy of evidence while devaluing expert opinion, which is ranked lowest in the hierarchy. However, randomized controlled trials have weaknesses as well as strengths, and no research method is flawless. Moreover, stringent application of scientific research techniques, such as the Delphi Panel methodology, allows survey of experts in a high quality and scientific manner. Level V evidence (expert opinion) remains a necessary component in the armamentarium used to determine the answer to a clinical question. Copyright © 2017 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Postactivation potentiation biases maximal isometric strength assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Leonardo Coelho Rabello; Oliveira, Felipe Bruno Dias; Oliveira, Thiago Pires; Assumpção, Claudio de Oliveira; Greco, Camila Coelho; Cardozo, Adalgiso Croscato; Denadai, Benedito Sérgio

2014-01-01

Postactivation potentiation (PAP) is known to enhance force production. Maximal isometric strength assessment protocols usually consist of two or more maximal voluntary isometric contractions (MVCs). The objective of this study was to determine if PAP would influence isometric strength assessment. Healthy male volunteers (n = 23) performed two five-second MVCs separated by a 180-seconds interval. Changes in isometric peak torque (IPT), time to achieve it (tPTI), contractile impulse (CI), root mean square of the electromyographic signal during PTI (RMS), and rate of torque development (RTD), in different intervals, were measured. Significant increases in IPT (240.6 ± 55.7 N·m versus 248.9 ± 55.1 N·m), RTD (746 ± 152 N·m·s(-1) versus 727 ± 158 N·m·s(-1)), and RMS (59.1 ± 12.2% RMSMAX  versus 54.8 ± 9.4% RMSMAX) were found on the second MVC. tPTI decreased significantly on the second MVC (2373 ± 1200 ms versus 2784 ± 1226 ms). We conclude that a first MVC leads to PAP that elicits significant enhancements in strength-related variables of a second MVC performed 180 seconds later. If disconsidered, this phenomenon might bias maximal isometric strength assessment, overestimating some of these variables.

Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

1990-01-01

Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

Safety Tips from the Expert Witness.

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Gary R.

1995-01-01

Many physical educators and coaches use the potential for liability to guide their decisions about conducting activities. By understanding expert witnesses' roles in negligence actions, surer planning, teaching, and coaching are possible. The paper describes issues that expert witnesses examine in negligence actions against physical educators,…

Expert systems and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beltracchi, L.

1990-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute have initiated a broad-based exploration of means to evaluate the potential applications of expert systems in the nuclear industry. This exploratory effort will assess the use of expert systems to augment the diagnostic and decision-making capabilities of personnel with the goal of enhancing productivity, reliability, and performance. The initial research effort is the development and documentation of guidelines for verifying and validating (V and V) expert systems. An initial application of expert systems in the nuclear industry is to aid operations and maintenance personnel in decision-making tasks. The scope of the decision aiding covers all types of cognitive behavior consisting of skill, rule, and knowledge-based behavior. For example, procedure trackers were designed and tested to support rule-based behavior. Further, these systems automate many of the tedious, error-prone human monitoring tasks, thereby reducing the potential for human error. The paper version of the procedure contains the knowledge base and the rules and thus serves as the basis of the design verification of the procedure tracker. Person-in-the-loop tests serve as the basis for the validation of a procedure tracker. When conducting validation tests, it is important to ascertain that the human retains the locus of control in the use of the expert system

Voluntary vs. compulsory student evaluation of clerkships: effect on validity and potential bias.

Science.gov (United States)

Aoun Bahous, Sola; Salameh, Pascale; Salloum, Angelique; Salameh, Wael; Park, Yoon Soo; Tekian, Ara

2018-01-05

Students evaluations of their learning experiences can provide a useful source of information about clerkship effectiveness in undergraduate medical education. However, low response rates in clerkship evaluation surveys remain an important limitation. This study examined the impact of increasing response rates using a compulsory approach on validity evidence. Data included 192 responses obtained voluntarily from 49 third-year students in 2014-2015, and 171 responses obtained compulsorily from 49 students in the first six months of the consecutive year at one medical school in Lebanon. Evidence supporting internal structure and response process validity was compared between the two administration modalities. The authors also tested for potential bias introduced by the use of the compulsory approach by examining students' responses to a sham item that was added to the last survey administration. Response rates increased from 56% in the voluntary group to 100% in the compulsory group (P two consecutive years. Testing for non-response bias in the voluntary group showed that females were more frequent responders in two clerkships. Testing for authority-induced bias revealed that students might complete the evaluation randomly without attention to content. While increasing response rates is often a policy requirement aimed to improve the credibility of ratings, using authority to enforce responses may not increase reliability and can raise concerns over the meaningfulness of the evaluation. Administrators are urged to consider not only response rates, but also representativeness and quality of responses in administering evaluation surveys.

A simple technique investigating baseline heterogeneity helped to eliminate potential bias in meta-analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Hicks, Amy; Fairhurst, Caroline; Torgerson, David J

2018-03-01

To perform a worked example of an approach that can be used to identify and remove potentially biased trials from meta-analyses via the analysis of baseline variables. True randomisation produces treatment groups that differ only by chance; therefore, a meta-analysis of a baseline measurement should produce no overall difference and zero heterogeneity. A meta-analysis from the British Medical Journal, known to contain significant heterogeneity and imbalance in baseline age, was chosen. Meta-analyses of baseline variables were performed and trials systematically removed, starting with those with the largest t-statistic, until the I 2 measure of heterogeneity became 0%, then the outcome meta-analysis repeated with only the remaining trials as a sensitivity check. We argue that heterogeneity in a meta-analysis of baseline variables should not exist, and therefore removing trials which contribute to heterogeneity from a meta-analysis will produce a more valid result. In our example none of the overall outcomes changed when studies contributing to heterogeneity were removed. We recommend routine use of this technique, using age and a second baseline variable predictive of outcome for the particular study chosen, to help eliminate potential bias in meta-analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of expert systems in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uhrig, R.E.

1989-01-01

The application of technologies, particularly expert systems, to the control room activities in a nuclear power plant has the potential to reduce operator error and increase plant safety, reliability, and efficiency. Furthermore, there are a large number of nonoperating activities (testing, routine maintenance, outage planning, equipment diagnostics, and fuel management) in which expert systems can increase the efficiency and effectiveness of overall plant and corporate operations. This document presents a number of potential applications of expert systems in the nuclear power field. 36 refs., 2 tabs

Placebo effect studies are susceptible to response bias and to other types of biases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hróbjartsson, Asbjørn; Kaptchuk, Ted J; Miller, Franklin G

2011-01-01

Investigations of the effect of placebo are often challenging to conduct and interpret. The history of placebo shows that assessment of its clinical significance has a real potential to be biased. We analyze and discuss typical types of bias in studies on placebo....

Subject de-biasing of data sets: A Bayesian approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pate-Cornell, M.E.

1994-01-01

In this paper, the authors examine the relevance of data sets (for instance, of past incidents) for risk management decisions when there are reasons to believe that all types of incidents have not been reported at the same rate. Their objective is to infer from the data reports what actually happened in order to assess the potential benefits of different safety measures. The authors use a simple Bayesian model to correct (de-bias) the data sets given the nonreport rates, which are assessed (subjectively) by experts and encoded as the probabilities of reports given different characteristics of the events of interest. They compute a probability distribution for the past number of events given the past number of reports. They illustrate the method by the cases of two data sets: incidents in anesthesia in Australia, and oil spills in the Gulf of Mexico. In the first case, the de-biasing allows correcting for the fact that some types of incidents, such as technical malfunctions, are more likely to be reported when they occur than anesthetist mistakes. In the second case, the authors have to account for the fact that the rates of oil spill reports indifferent incident categories have increased over the years, perhaps at the same time as the rates of incidents themselves

Gender-biased perceptions of important ecology articles

OpenAIRE

Courchamp, Franck; Bradshaw, Corey

2017-01-01

Gender bias is still unfortunately rife in the sciences, and men co-author most articles (> 70%) in ecology. Whether ecologists subconsciously rate the quality of their peers' work more favourably if men are the dominant co-authors is still unclear. To test this hypothesis, we examined how expert ecologists ranked important ecology articles based on a previously compiled list. Women proposed articles with a higher average proportion of women co-authors (0.18) than did men proposers (0.07)....

Potential fitting biases resulting from grouping data into variable width bins

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Towers, S.

2014-01-01

When reading peer-reviewed scientific literature describing any analysis of empirical data, it is natural and correct to proceed with the underlying assumption that experiments have made good faith efforts to ensure that their analyses yield unbiased results. However, particle physics experiments are expensive and time consuming to carry out, thus if an analysis has inherent bias (even if unintentional), much money and effort can be wasted trying to replicate or understand the results, particularly if the analysis is fundamental to our understanding of the universe. In this note we discuss the significant biases that can result from data binning schemes. As we will show, if data are binned such that they provide the best comparison to a particular (but incorrect) model, the resulting model parameter estimates when fitting to the binned data can be significantly biased, leading us to too often accept the model hypothesis when it is not in fact true. When using binned likelihood or least squares methods there is of course no a priori requirement that data bin sizes need to be constant, but we show that fitting to data grouped into variable width bins is particularly prone to produce biased results if the bin boundaries are chosen to optimize the comparison of the binned data to a wrong model. The degree of bias that can be achieved simply with variable binning can be surprisingly large. Fitting the data with an unbinned likelihood method, when possible to do so, is the best way for researchers to show that their analyses are not biased by binning effects. Failing that, equal bin widths should be employed as a cross-check of the fitting analysis whenever possible

Potential fitting biases resulting from grouping data into variable width bins

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Towers, S., E-mail: smtowers@asu.edu

2014-07-30

When reading peer-reviewed scientific literature describing any analysis of empirical data, it is natural and correct to proceed with the underlying assumption that experiments have made good faith efforts to ensure that their analyses yield unbiased results. However, particle physics experiments are expensive and time consuming to carry out, thus if an analysis has inherent bias (even if unintentional), much money and effort can be wasted trying to replicate or understand the results, particularly if the analysis is fundamental to our understanding of the universe. In this note we discuss the significant biases that can result from data binning schemes. As we will show, if data are binned such that they provide the best comparison to a particular (but incorrect) model, the resulting model parameter estimates when fitting to the binned data can be significantly biased, leading us to too often accept the model hypothesis when it is not in fact true. When using binned likelihood or least squares methods there is of course no a priori requirement that data bin sizes need to be constant, but we show that fitting to data grouped into variable width bins is particularly prone to produce biased results if the bin boundaries are chosen to optimize the comparison of the binned data to a wrong model. The degree of bias that can be achieved simply with variable binning can be surprisingly large. Fitting the data with an unbinned likelihood method, when possible to do so, is the best way for researchers to show that their analyses are not biased by binning effects. Failing that, equal bin widths should be employed as a cross-check of the fitting analysis whenever possible.

Expert model for the evaluation of potential competition performance in cross-country skiers exemplified by two evaluated athletes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J Pustovrh

2008-09-01

Full Text Available The objective of the present research was to obtain information on potential competition performance in cross-country skiers by the method of expert modelling. On the basis of expert knowledge, a model of potential performance (MFMPS was constructed in the form of a decision tree, encompassing motor, functional, morphological, psychological, and sociological subspaces. For all base variables, normalisers were determined, and for all nodes in the MFMPS model, decision rules were determined according to the method applying dependent determination of weights. Potential competition performance of the sample of 14 subjects measured – cross-country skiers in the age of 17 and 18 years was assessed at all levels in the MFMPS model by means of the SMMS program. At the highest levels of the MFMPS model, the correlation between the scores of the variables and the criterion variable SLO_FIS was established by means of the Pearson correlation coefficient. The validity of the MFMPS model  by means of which 81% of the variance of the criterion variable was explained – was established. The model laid out in this way allows us to search for current weak and good points in the preparation status of an athlete, on which the direction and correction of the transformation process is based. In this way, objective longitudinal monitoring of the development of the athlete's potential is also ensured.

Experts correctly describe demography associated with historical decline of the endangered Indiana bat, but not recent period of stationarity

Science.gov (United States)

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Szymanski, Jennifer; Pruitt, Lori; Runge, Michael C.

2017-01-01

Demographic characteristics of bats are often insufficiently described for modeling populations. In data poor situations, experts are often relied upon for characterizing ecological systems. In concert with the development of a matrix model describing Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) demography, we elicited estimates for parameterizing this model from 12 experts. We conducted this elicitation in two stages, requesting expert values for 12 demographic rates. These rates were adult and juvenile seasonal (winter, summer, fall) survival rates, pup survival in fall, and propensity and success at breeding. Experts were most in agreement about adult fall survival (3% Coefficient of Variation) and least in agreement about propensity of juveniles to breed (37% CV). The experts showed greater concordance for adult ( mean CV, adult = 6.2%) than for juvenile parameters ( mean CV, juvenile = 16.4%), and slightly more agreement for survival (mean CV, survival = 9.8%) compared to reproductive rates ( mean CV, reproduction = 15.1%). However, survival and reproduction were negatively and positively biased, respectively, relative to a stationary dynamic. Despite the species exhibiting near stationary dynamics for two decades prior to the onset of a potential extinction-causing agent, white-nose syndrome, expert estimates indicated a population decline of -11% per year (95% CI = -2%, -20%); quasi-extinction was predicted within a century ( mean = 61 years to QE, range = 32, 97) by 10 of the 12 experts. Were we to use these expert estimates in our modeling efforts, we would have errantly trained our models to a rapidly declining demography asymptomatic of recent demographic behavior. While experts are sometimes the only source of information, a clear understanding of the temporal and spatial context of the information being elicited is necessary to guard against wayward predictions.

Cognitive Biases and Nonverbal Cue Availability in Detecting Deception

Science.gov (United States)

Burgoon, Judee K.; Blair, J. Pete; Strom, Renee E.

2008-01-01

In potentially deceptive situations, people rely on mental shortcuts to help process information. These heuristic judgments are often biased and result in inaccurate assessments of sender veracity. Four such biases--truth bias, visual bias, demeanor bias, and expectancy violation bias--were examined in a judgment experiment that varied nonverbal…

Examining Potential Boundary Bias Effects in Kernel Smoothing on Equating: An Introduction for the Adaptive and Epanechnikov Kernels.

Science.gov (United States)

Cid, Jaime A; von Davier, Alina A

2015-05-01

Test equating is a method of making the test scores from different test forms of the same assessment comparable. In the equating process, an important step involves continuizing the discrete score distributions. In traditional observed-score equating, this step is achieved using linear interpolation (or an unscaled uniform kernel). In the kernel equating (KE) process, this continuization process involves Gaussian kernel smoothing. It has been suggested that the choice of bandwidth in kernel smoothing controls the trade-off between variance and bias. In the literature on estimating density functions using kernels, it has also been suggested that the weight of the kernel depends on the sample size, and therefore, the resulting continuous distribution exhibits bias at the endpoints, where the samples are usually smaller. The purpose of this article is (a) to explore the potential effects of atypical scores (spikes) at the extreme ends (high and low) on the KE method in distributions with different degrees of asymmetry using the randomly equivalent groups equating design (Study I), and (b) to introduce the Epanechnikov and adaptive kernels as potential alternative approaches to reducing boundary bias in smoothing (Study II). The beta-binomial model is used to simulate observed scores reflecting a range of different skewed shapes.

Expert system application education project

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

1988-01-01

Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

The construct equivalence and item bias of the pib/SpEEx conceptualisation-ability test for members of five language groups in South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pieter Schaap

2008-11-01

Full Text Available This study’s objective was to determine whether the Potential Index Batteries/Situation Specific Evaluation Expert (PIB/SpEEx conceptualisation (100 ability test displays construct equivalence and item bias for members of five selected language groups in South Africa. The sample consisted of a non-probability convenience sample (N = 6 261 of members of five language groups (speakers of Afrikaans, English, North Sotho, Setswana and isiZulu working in the medical and beverage industries or studying at higher-educational institutions. Exploratory factor analysis with target rotations confrmed the PIB/SpEEx 100’s construct equivalence for the respondents from these five language groups. No evidence of either uniform or non-uniform item bias of practical signifcance was found for the sample.

Cognitive Bias in Systems Verification

Science.gov (United States)

Larson, Steve

2012-01-01

Working definition of cognitive bias: Patterns by which information is sought and interpreted that can lead to systematic errors in decisions. Cognitive bias is used in diverse fields: Economics, Politics, Intelligence, Marketing, to name a few. Attempts to ground cognitive science in physical characteristics of the cognitive apparatus exceed our knowledge. Studies based on correlations; strict cause and effect is difficult to pinpoint. Effects cited in the paper and discussed here have been replicated many times over, and appear sound. Many biases have been described, but it is still unclear whether they are all distinct. There may only be a handful of fundamental biases, which manifest in various ways. Bias can effect system verification in many ways . Overconfidence -> Questionable decisions to deploy. Availability -> Inability to conceive critical tests. Representativeness -> Overinterpretation of results. Positive Test Strategies -> Confirmation bias. Debiasing at individual level very difficult. The potential effect of bias on the verification process can be managed, but not eliminated. Worth considering at key points in the process.

Biases in GNSS-Data Processing

Science.gov (United States)

Schaer, S. C.; Dach, R.; Lutz, S.; Meindl, M.; Beutler, G.

2010-12-01

Within the Global Positioning System (GPS) traditionally different types of pseudo-range measurements (P-code, C/A-code) are available on the first frequency that are tracked by the receivers with different technologies. For that reason, P1-C1 and P1-P2 Differential Code Biases (DCB) need to be considered in a GPS data processing with a mix of different receiver types. Since the Block IIR-M series of GPS satellites also provide C/A-code on the second frequency, P2-C2 DCB need to be added to the list of biases for maintenance. Potential quarter-cycle biases between different phase observables (specifically L2P and L2C) are another issue. When combining GNSS (currently GPS and GLONASS), careful consideration of inter-system biases (ISB) is indispensable, in particular when an adequate combination of individual GLONASS clock correction results from different sources (using, e.g., different software packages) is intended. Facing the GPS and GLONASS modernization programs and the upcoming GNSS, like the European Galileo and the Chinese Compass, an increasing number of types of biases is expected. The Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) is monitoring these GPS and GLONASS related biases for a long time based on RINEX files of the tracking network of the International GNSS Service (IGS) and in the frame of the data processing as one of the global analysis centers of the IGS. Within the presentation we give an overview on the stability of the biases based on the monitoring. Biases derived from different sources are compared. Finally, we give an outlook on the potential handling of such biases with the big variety of signals and systems expected in the future.

An expert panel approach to assessing potential effects of bull trout reintroduction on federally listed salmonids in the Clackamas River, Oregon

Science.gov (United States)

Bruce G. Marcot; Chris S. Allen; Steve Morey; Dan Shively; Rollie. White

2012-01-01

The bull trout Salvelinus confluentus is an apex predator in native fish communities in the western USA and is listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Restoration of this species has raised concerns over its potential predatory impacts on native fish fauna. We held a five-person expert panel to help determine potential...

Good practices for quantitative bias analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lash, Timothy L; Fox, Matthew P; MacLehose, Richard F; Maldonado, George; McCandless, Lawrence C; Greenland, Sander

2014-12-01

more widespread use of bias analysis to estimate the potential magnitude and direction of biases, as well as the uncertainty in estimates potentially influenced by the biases. © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Toward the Development of Expert Assessment Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Hasselbring, Ted S.

1986-01-01

The potential application of "expert systems" to the diagnosis and assessment of special-needs children is examined and existing prototype systems are reviewed. The future of this artificial intelligence technology is discussed in relation to emerging development tools designed for the creation of expert systems by the lay public. (Author)

ALICE Expert System

CERN Document Server

Ionita, C

2014-01-01

The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in dierent system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by reg...

Price competition between an expert and a non-expert

OpenAIRE

Bouckaert, J.M.C.; Degryse, H.A.

1998-01-01

This paper characterizes price competition between an expert and a non-expert. In contrast with the expert, the non-expert’s repair technology is not always successful. Consumers visit the expert after experiencing an unsuccessful match at the non-expert. This re-entry affects the behaviour of both sellers. For low enough probability of successful repair at the non-expert, all consumers first visit the non-expert, and a ‘timid-pricing’ equilibrium results. If the non-expert’s repair technolog...

Awareness and minimisation of systematic bias in research.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Malone, Helen

2014-03-01

A major goal of nursing and midwifery is the delivery of evidence-based practice. Consequently, it is essential for the quality and safety of patient\\/client care that policy makers, educators and practitioners are aware of the presence of potential systematic bias in research practice and research publications so that only sound evidence translates into practice. The main aim of this paper is to highlight the need for ongoing awareness of the potential presence of systematic bias in research practice, to explore commonly reported types of systematic bias and to report some methods that can be applied to minimise systematic bias in research.

Ask-the-expert: Active Learning Based Knowledge Discovery Using the Expert

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Kamalika; Avrekh, Ilya; Matthews, Bryan; Sharma, Manali; Oza, Nikunj

2017-01-01

Often the manual review of large data sets, either for purposes of labeling unlabeled instances or for classifying meaningful results from uninteresting (but statistically significant) ones is extremely resource intensive, especially in terms of subject matter expert (SME) time. Use of active learning has been shown to diminish this review time significantly. However, since active learning is an iterative process of learning a classifier based on a small number of SME-provided labels at each iteration, the lack of an enabling tool can hinder the process of adoption of these technologies in real-life, in spite of their labor-saving potential. In this demo we present ASK-the-Expert, an interactive tool that allows SMEs to review instances from a data set and provide labels within a single framework. ASK-the-Expert is powered by an active learning algorithm for training a classifier in the backend. We demonstrate this system in the context of an aviation safety application, but the tool can be adopted to work as a simple review and labeling tool as well, without the use of active learning.

EXPERT ESTIMATE OF PREVENTIVE AND PEDAGOGICAL POTENTIAL OF FAMILIES WITH MINORS ON INDIVIDUAL SOCIAL MAINTENANCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yakov Viktorovich Kostyukovisky

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The article presents the results of research surveys and polls conducted among 121 professional social workers at the St. Petersburg State Budgetary Institution The City Center for Social Programs CONTACT. The main objective of the research was to make the specified group of experts estimate educational and preventive potential of families with minors who are on individual social maintenance. The data obtained let us claim that family is a significant deviantogenic factor triggering asocial behavior of teenagers. We should admit that parents of underaged children fail to implement activities aimed at forming comprehensively and harmoniously developed personality due to the low level of pedagogical culture, growing indiffe-rence within a family and lack of emotional bonds with their kids as well as common interests and hobbies. As a matter of fact children can’t count on parents giving them a hand. The research has also shown that social workers faced a number of cases when parents put intense physical and psychological pressure on their children. One of the most significant problems experts registered in the course of their work are parent/child conflicts.

Are Forensic Experts Already Biased before Adversarial Legal Parties Hire Them?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tess M S Neal

Full Text Available This survey of 206 forensic psychologists tested the "filtering" effects of preexisting expert attitudes in adversarial proceedings. Results confirmed the hypothesis that evaluator attitudes toward capital punishment influence willingness to accept capital case referrals from particular adversarial parties. Stronger death penalty opposition was associated with higher willingness to conduct evaluations for the defense and higher likelihood of rejecting referrals from all sources. Conversely, stronger support was associated with higher willingness to be involved in capital cases generally, regardless of referral source. The findings raise the specter of skewed evaluator involvement in capital evaluations, where evaluators willing to do capital casework may have stronger capital punishment support than evaluators who opt out, and evaluators with strong opposition may work selectively for the defense. The results may provide a partial explanation for the "allegiance effect" in adversarial legal settings such that preexisting attitudes may contribute to partisan participation through a self-selection process.

Are Forensic Experts Already Biased before Adversarial Legal Parties Hire Them?

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-01

This survey of 206 forensic psychologists tested the “filtering” effects of preexisting expert attitudes in adversarial proceedings. Results confirmed the hypothesis that evaluator attitudes toward capital punishment influence willingness to accept capital case referrals from particular adversarial parties. Stronger death penalty opposition was associated with higher willingness to conduct evaluations for the defense and higher likelihood of rejecting referrals from all sources. Conversely, stronger support was associated with higher willingness to be involved in capital cases generally, regardless of referral source. The findings raise the specter of skewed evaluator involvement in capital evaluations, where evaluators willing to do capital casework may have stronger capital punishment support than evaluators who opt out, and evaluators with strong opposition may work selectively for the defense. The results may provide a partial explanation for the “allegiance effect” in adversarial legal settings such that preexisting attitudes may contribute to partisan participation through a self-selection process. PMID:27124416

Attention bias in earthquake-exposed survivors: an event-related potential study.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yan; Kong, Fanchang; Han, Li; Najam Ul Hasan, Abbasi; Chen, Hong

2014-12-01

The Chinese Wenchuan earthquake, which happened on the 28th of May in 2008, may leave deep invisible scars in individuals. China has a large number of children and adolescents, who tend to be most vulnerable because they are in an early stage of human development and possible post-traumatic psychological distress may have a life-long consequence. Trauma survivors without post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have received little attention in previous studies, especially in event-related potential (ERP) studies. We compared the attention bias to threat stimuli between the earthquake-exposed group and the control group in a masked version of the dot probe task. The target probe presented at the same space location consistent with earthquake-related words was the congruent trial, while in the space location of neutral words was the incongruent trial. Thirteen earthquake-exposed middle school students without PTSD and 13 matched controls were included in this investigation. The earthquake-exposed group showed significantly faster RTs to congruent trials than to incongruent trials. The earthquake-exposed group produced significantly shorter C1 and P1 latencies and larger C1, P1 and P2 amplitudes than the control group. In particular, enhanced P1 amplitude to threat stimuli was observed in the earthquake-exposed group. These findings are in agreement with the prediction that earthquake-exposed survivors have an attention bias to threat stimuli. The traumatic event had a much greater effect on earthquake-exposed survivors even if they showed no PTSD symptoms than individuals in the controls. These results will provide neurobiological evidences for effective intervention and prevention to post-traumatic mental problems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diagnosing Crime and Diagnosing Disease: Bias Reduction Strategies in the Forensic and Clinical Sciences.

Science.gov (United States)

Lockhart, Joseph J; Satya-Murti, Saty

2017-11-01

Cognitive effort is an essential part of both forensic and clinical decision-making. Errors occur in both fields because the cognitive process is complex and prone to bias. We performed a selective review of full-text English language literature on cognitive bias leading to diagnostic and forensic errors. Earlier work (1970-2000) concentrated on classifying and raising bias awareness. Recently (2000-2016), the emphasis has shifted toward strategies for "debiasing." While the forensic sciences have focused on the control of misleading contextual cues, clinical debiasing efforts have relied on checklists and hypothetical scenarios. No single generally applicable and effective bias reduction strategy has emerged so far. Generalized attempts at bias elimination have not been particularly successful. It is time to shift focus to the study of errors within specific domains, and how to best communicate uncertainty in order to improve decision making on the part of both the expert and the trier-of-fact. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Knowledge base to develop expert system prototype for predicting groundwater pollution from nitrogen fertilizer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ta-oun, M.; Daud, M.; Bardaie, M.Z.; Jusop, S.

1999-01-01

An expert system for prediction the impact of nitrogen fertilizer on groundwater pollution potential was established by using CLIPS (NASA's Jonson Space Centre). The knowledge base could be extracted from FAO reports, ministry of agriculture and rural development Malaysia report, established literature and domain expert for preparing an expert system skeleton. An expert system was used to correlate the availability of nitrogen fertilizer with the vulnerability of groundwater to pollution in Peninsula Malaysia and to identify potential groundwater quality problems. An n-fertilizer groundwater pollution potential index produced b using the vulnerability of groundwater to pollution yields a more accurate screening toll for identifying potential pollution problems than by considering vulnerability alone. An expert system can predict the groundwater pollution potential under several conditions of agricultural activities and existing environments. (authors)

ALICE Expert System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ionita, C; Carena, F

2014-01-01

The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period

Methodology toward second generation expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dormoy, J.L.

1989-01-01

So-called First Generation Expert Systems were aimed at capturing the expert's know-how. Though providing remarkable achievements, this first wave did not give the expected outcome. A new generation is getting out from the laboratories. Instead of remaining at a shallow level of knowledge - that is the unmotivated reasoning processes expressed by an expert when he is forced to tell them - one attempts to re-build this level of knowledge from the first principles which constitute the basis of an expert's knowledge. These systems are called deep knowledge-based, or second generation expert systems. Discussion in the three first parts rests on two examples: A first generation and a half system for process control in nuclear powers plants, than the system EXTRA for alarm processing in nuclear plants, wherein fonctional knowledge is explicitely represented. We show how deep knowledge can be implemented, and the advantages that can be expected from this methodology. Qualitative Physics is discussed in the next part. Future research developments as well as potential payoffs are mentioned [fr

Biased limiter experiments on text

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phillips, P.E.; Wootton, A.J.; Rowan, W.L.; Ritz, C.P.; Rhodes, T.L.; Bengtson, R.D.; Hodge, W.L.; Durst, R.D.; McCool, S.C.; Richards, B.; Gentle, K.W.; Schoch, P.; Forster, J.C.; Hickok, R.L.; Evans, T.E.

1987-01-01

Experiments using an electrically biased limiter have been performed on the Texas Experimental Tokamak (TEXT). A small movable limiter is inserted past the main poloidal ring limiter (which is electrically connected to the vacuum vessel) and biased at V Lim with respect to it. The floating potential, plasma potential and shear layer position can be controlled. With vertical strokeV Lim vertical stroke ≥ 50 V the plasma density increases. For V Lim Lim > 0 the results obtained are inconclusive. Variation of V Lim changes the electrostatic turbulence which may explain the observed total flux changes. (orig.)

Expert systems in clinical practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renaud-Salis, J.L.

1987-01-01

The first expert systems prototypes intended for advising physicians on diagnosis or therapy selection have been designed more than ten years ago. However, a few of them are already in use in clinical practice after years of research and development efforts. The capabilities of these systems to reason symbolically and to mimic the hypothetico-deductive processes used by physicians distinguishes them from conventional computer programs. Their power comes from their knowledge-base which embeds a large quantity of high-level, specialized knowledge captured from medical experts. Common methods for knowledge representation include production rules and frames. These methods also provide a mean for organizing and structuring the knowledge according to hierarchical or causal links. The best expert-systems perform at the level of the experts. They are easy to learn and use, and can communicate with the user in pseudo-natural language. Moreover they are able to explain their line of reasoning. These capabilities make them potentially useful, usable and acceptable by physicians. However if the problems related to difficulties and costs in building expert-systems are on the way to be solved within the next few years, forensic and ethical issues should have to be addressed before one can envisage their routine use in clinical practice [fr

Expert systems for real-time monitoring and fault diagnosis

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, S. J.; Caglayan, A. K.

1989-01-01

Methods for building real-time onboard expert systems were investigated, and the use of expert systems technology was demonstrated in improving the performance of current real-time onboard monitoring and fault diagnosis applications. The potential applications of the proposed research include an expert system environment allowing the integration of expert systems into conventional time-critical application solutions, a grammar for describing the discrete event behavior of monitoring and fault diagnosis systems, and their applications to new real-time hardware fault diagnosis and monitoring systems for aircraft.

On the use of the analytic hierarchy process in the aggregation of expert judgments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zio, E.

1996-01-01

Expert judgments are involved in many aspects of scientific research, either formally or informally. In order to combine the different opinions elicited, simple aggregation methods have often been used with the result that expert biases, interexpert dependencies and other factors which might affect the judgments of the experts are often ignored. A more comprehensive approach, based on the analytic hierarchy process, is proposed in this paper to account for the large variety of factors influencing the experts. A structured hierarchy is constructed to decompose the overall problem in the elementary factors that can influence the expert's judgements. The importance of the different elements of the hierarchy is then assessed by pairwise comparison. The overall approach is simple, presents a systematic character and offers a good degree of flexibility. The approach provides the decision maker with a tool to quantitatively measure the significance of the judgments provided by the different experts involved in the elicitation. The resulting values can be used as weights in an aggregation scheme such as, for example, the simple weighted averaging scheme. Two applications of the approach are presented with reference to case studies of formal expert judgment elicitation previously analyzed in literature: the elicitation of the pressure increment in the containment building of the Sequoyah nuclear power plant following reactor vessel breach, and the prediction of the future changes in precipitation in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain

NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H.; Palmer, K.; Fink, P.

1988-01-01

An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

Self-serving bias effects on job analysis ratings.

Science.gov (United States)

Cucina, Jeffrey M; Martin, Nicholas R; Vasilopoulos, Nicholas L; Thibodeuax, Henry F

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether worker-oriented job analysis importance ratings were influenced by subject matter experts' (SME) standing (as measured by self-rated performance) on a competency. This type of relationship (whereby SMEs indicate that the traits they have are important for successful job performance) is an example of the self-serving bias (which is widely described in the social cognition literature and rarely described in the industrial/organizational psychology literature). An archival dataset covering 57 clerical and technical occupations with 26,682 participants was used. Support was found for the relationship between self-rated performance and importance ratings. Significant relationships (typically in the .30s) were observed for all 31 competencies that were studied. Controls were taken to account for common method bias and differences in the competencies required for each of the 57 occupations. Past research has demonstrated the effects of the self-serving bias on personality-based job analysis ratings. This study was the first to extend these findings to traditional job analysis, which covers other competencies in addition to personality. In addition, this study is the first to use operational field data instead of laboratory data.

First principles molecular dynamics of metal/water interfaces under bias potential

Science.gov (United States)

Pedroza, Luana; Brandimarte, Pedro; Rocha, Alexandre; Fernandez-Serra, Marivi

2014-03-01

Understanding the interaction of the water-metal system at an atomic level is extremely important in electrocatalysts for fuel cells, photocatalysis among other systems. The question of the interface energetics involves a detailed study of the nature of the interactions between water-water and water-substrate. A first principles description of all components of the system is the most appropriate methodology in order to advance understanding of electrochemically processes. In this work we describe, using first principles molecular dynamics simulations, the dynamics of a combined surface(Au and Pd)/water system both in the presence and absence of an external bias potential applied to the electrodes, as one would come across in electrochemistry. This is accomplished using a combination of density functional theory (DFT) and non-equilibrium Green's functions methods (NEGF), thus accounting for the fact that one is dealing with an out-of-equilibrium open system, with and without van der Waals interactions. DOE Early Career Award No. DE-SC0003871.

Counteracting estimation bias and social influence to improve the wisdom of crowds.

Science.gov (United States)

Kao, Albert B; Berdahl, Andrew M; Hartnett, Andrew T; Lutz, Matthew J; Bak-Coleman, Joseph B; Ioannou, Christos C; Giam, Xingli; Couzin, Iain D

2018-04-01

Aggregating multiple non-expert opinions into a collective estimate can improve accuracy across many contexts. However, two sources of error can diminish collective wisdom: individual estimation biases and information sharing between individuals. Here, we measure individual biases and social influence rules in multiple experiments involving hundreds of individuals performing a classic numerosity estimation task. We first investigate how existing aggregation methods, such as calculating the arithmetic mean or the median, are influenced by these sources of error. We show that the mean tends to overestimate, and the median underestimate, the true value for a wide range of numerosities. Quantifying estimation bias, and mapping individual bias to collective bias, allows us to develop and validate three new aggregation measures that effectively counter sources of collective estimation error. In addition, we present results from a further experiment that quantifies the social influence rules that individuals employ when incorporating personal estimates with social information. We show that the corrected mean is remarkably robust to social influence, retaining high accuracy in the presence or absence of social influence, across numerosities and across different methods for averaging social information. Using knowledge of estimation biases and social influence rules may therefore be an inexpensive and general strategy to improve the wisdom of crowds. © 2018 The Author(s).

Expert Evaluation of Potential Points of Economic Growth in the Regions of Russia and the Conditions of their Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. V. Tihonov

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: the main purpose of this article is to identify « growth points» of economic growth in the regions, determine their type, and assess the conditions for their development. Methods: the main feature of this study is to obtain an expert assessment of the qualitative aspects of regional development. The main source of empirical data was an online survey conducted by the authors in 2016. Results: the study identified potential «growth points» in five regions of the Russian Federation and determined their nature according to the idea of modernizing the socio-economic environment. The selected points allow to develop the potential of the region horizontally. However, there are certain problems that hinder this development and they have been identified. Conclusions and Relevance: at the moment, the identified «growth points» can not be classified as information or intellectual, but in all regions there is the possibility of activating such industries. The «growth points» allocated by experts are still potential, because their technical, technological and innovative components have medium level of development. «Growth points» in the Republic of Sakha and the Nizhny Novgorod region have a greater modernization activity. Such expertise can be used by local authorities to adjust development vectors and strategies. It can also be an element of monitoring the socioeconomic development of regions. 

Incidental encoding of emotional pictures: affective bias studied through event related brain potentials.

Science.gov (United States)

Tapia, Manuel; Carretié, Luis; Sierra, Benjamín; Mercado, Francisco

2008-06-01

Emotional stimuli are better remembered than neutral stimuli. Most of the studies taking into account this emotional bias refer to explicit memory, use behavioral measures of the recall and predict better recall of negative stimuli. The few studies taking into account implicit memory and the valence emotional dimension are inconclusive on the effect of the stimulus' emotional valence. In the present study, 120 pictures (30 positive, 30 negative, 30 relaxing and 30 neutral) were shown to, and assessed by, 28 participants (study phase). Subsequently, event related brain potentials (ERPs) were recorded during the presentation of 120 new (shown for the first time) and 120 old (already shown in the study phase) pictures (test phase). No explicit instructions or clues related to recovery were given to participants, and a distractor task was employed, in order to maintain implicit the memory assessment. As expected from other studies' data, our results showed that old stimuli elicited an enhanced late positive component 450 ms after stimulus onset (repetition effect). Moreover, this effect was modulated by the stimuli's emotional valence, since the most positively valenced stimuli were associated with a decreased repetition effect with respect to the most negatively valenced stimuli. This effect was located at ventromedial prefrontal cortex. These results suggest the existence of a valence-mediated bias in implicit memory.

Expert judgment and uncertainty regarding the protection of imperiled species.

Science.gov (United States)

Heeren, Alexander; Karns, Gabriel; Bruskotter, Jeremy; Toman, Eric; Wilson, Robyn; Szarek, Harmony

2017-06-01

Decisions concerning the appropriate listing status of species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) can be controversial even among conservationists. These decisions may determine whether a species persists in the near term and have long-lasting social and political ramifications. Given the ESA's mandate that such decisions be based on the best available science, it is important to examine what factors contribute to experts' judgments concerning the listing of species. We examined how a variety of factors (such as risk perception, value orientations, and norms) influenced experts' judgments concerning the appropriate listing status of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Experts were invited to complete an online survey examining their perceptions of the threats grizzly bears face and their listing recommendation. Although experts' assessments of the threats to this species were strongly correlated with their recommendations for listing status, this relationship did not exist when other cognitive factors were included in the model. Specifically, values related to human use of wildlife and norms (i.e., a respondent's expectation of peers' assessments) were most influential in listing status recommendations. These results suggest that experts' decisions about listing, like all human decisions, are subject to the use of heuristics (i.e., decision shortcuts). An understanding of how heuristics and related biases affect decisions under uncertainty can help inform decision making about threatened and endangered species and may be useful in designing effective processes for protection of imperiled species. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

Science.gov (United States)

Pedrini, Paolo; Brambilla, Mattia; Rolando, Antonio; Girardello, Marco

2016-01-01

Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds). For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community. PMID:26966659

Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan E. Chamberlain

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds. For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community.

[Correlation of codon biases and potential secondary structures with mRNA translation efficiency in unicellular organisms].

Science.gov (United States)

Vladimirov, N V; Likhoshvaĭ, V A; Matushkin, Iu G

2007-01-01

Gene expression is known to correlate with degree of codon bias in many unicellular organisms. However, such correlation is absent in some organisms. Recently we demonstrated that inverted complementary repeats within coding DNA sequence must be considered for proper estimation of translation efficiency, since they may form secondary structures that obstruct ribosome movement. We have developed a program for estimation of potential coding DNA sequence expression in defined unicellular organism using its genome sequence. The program computes elongation efficiency index. Computation is based on estimation of coding DNA sequence elongation efficiency, taking into account three key factors: codon bias, average number of inverted complementary repeats, and free energy of potential stem-loop structures formed by the repeats. The influence of these factors on translation is numerically estimated. An optimal proportion of these factors is computed for each organism individually. Quantitative translational characteristics of 384 unicellular organisms (351 bacteria, 28 archaea, 5 eukaryota) have been computed using their annotated genomes from NCBI GenBank. Five potential evolutionary strategies of translational optimization have been determined among studied organisms. A considerable difference of preferred translational strategies between Bacteria and Archaea has been revealed. Significant correlations between elongation efficiency index and gene expression levels have been shown for two organisms (S. cerevisiae and H. pylori) using available microarray data. The proposed method allows to estimate numerically the coding DNA sequence translation efficiency and to optimize nucleotide composition of heterologous genes in unicellular organisms. http://www.mgs.bionet.nsc.ru/mgs/programs/eei-calculator/.

Expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haldy, P.A.

1988-01-01

The definitions of the terms 'artificial intelligence' and 'expert systems', the methodology, areas of employment and limits of expert systems are discussed. The operation of an expert system is described, especially the presentation and organization of knowledge as well as interference and control. Methods and tools for expert system development are presented and their application in nuclear energy are briefly addressed. 7 figs., 2 tabs., 6 refs

Expert systems: an alternative paradigm

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coombs, M.; Alty, J.

1984-01-01

There has recently been a significant effort by the AI community to interest industry in the potential of expert systems. However, this has resulted in far fewer substantial applications projects than might be expected. This article argues that this is because human experts are rarely required to perform the role that computer-based experts are programmed to adopt. Instead of being called in to answer well-defined problems, they are more often asked to assist other experts to extend and refine their understanding of a problem area at the junction of their two domains of knowledge. This more properly involves educational rather than problem-solving skills. An alternative approach to expert system design is proposed based upon guided discovery learning. The user is provided with a supportive environment for a particular class of problem, the system predominantly acting as an adviser rather than directing the interaction. The environment includes a database of domain knowledge, a set of procedures for its application to a concrete problem, and an intelligent machine-based adviser to judge the user's effectiveness and advise on strategy. The procedures focus upon the use of user generated explanations both to promote the application of domain knowledge and to expose understanding difficulties. Simple database PROLOG is being used as the subject material for the prototype system which is known as MINDPAD. 30 references.

Improved quality of input data for maintenance optimization using expert judgment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oien, Knut

1998-01-01

Most maintenance optimization models need an estimate of the so-called 'naked' failure rate function as input. In practice it is very difficult to estimate the 'naked' failure rate, because overhauls and other preventive maintenance actions tend to 'corrupt' the recorded lifelengths. The purpose of this paper is to stress the importance of utilizing the knowledge of maintenance engineers, i.e., expert judgment, in addition to recorded equipment lifelengths, in order to get credible input data. We have shown that without utilizing expert judgment, the estimated mean time to failure may be strongly biased, often by a factor of 2-3, depending on the life distribution that is assumed. We recommend including a simple question about the mean remaining lifelength on the work-order forms. By this approach the knowledge of maintenance engineers may be incorporated in a simple and cost-effective way

Toward a synthesis of cognitive biases: how noisy information processing can bias human decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Hilbert, Martin

2012-03-01

A single coherent framework is proposed to synthesize long-standing research on 8 seemingly unrelated cognitive decision-making biases. During the past 6 decades, hundreds of empirical studies have resulted in a variety of rules of thumb that specify how humans systematically deviate from what is normatively expected from their decisions. Several complementary generative mechanisms have been proposed to explain those cognitive biases. Here it is suggested that (at least) 8 of these empirically detected decision-making biases can be produced by simply assuming noisy deviations in the memory-based information processes that convert objective evidence (observations) into subjective estimates (decisions). An integrative framework is presented to show how similar noise-based mechanisms can lead to conservatism, the Bayesian likelihood bias, illusory correlations, biased self-other placement, subadditivity, exaggerated expectation, the confidence bias, and the hard-easy effect. Analytical tools from information theory are used to explore the nature and limitations that characterize such information processes for binary and multiary decision-making exercises. The ensuing synthesis offers formal mathematical definitions of the biases and their underlying generative mechanism, which permits a consolidated analysis of how they are related. This synthesis contributes to the larger goal of creating a coherent picture that explains the relations among the myriad of seemingly unrelated biases and their potential psychological generative mechanisms. Limitations and research questions are discussed.

Approach-Induced Biases in Human Information Sampling.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laurence T Hunt

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Information sampling is often biased towards seeking evidence that confirms one's prior beliefs. Despite such biases being a pervasive feature of human behavior, their underlying causes remain unclear. Many accounts of these biases appeal to limitations of human hypothesis testing and cognition, de facto evoking notions of bounded rationality, but neglect more basic aspects of behavioral control. Here, we investigated a potential role for Pavlovian approach in biasing which information humans will choose to sample. We collected a large novel dataset from 32,445 human subjects, making over 3 million decisions, who played a gambling task designed to measure the latent causes and extent of information-sampling biases. We identified three novel approach-related biases, formalized by comparing subject behavior to a dynamic programming model of optimal information gathering. These biases reflected the amount of information sampled ("positive evidence approach", the selection of which information to sample ("sampling the favorite", and the interaction between information sampling and subsequent choices ("rejecting unsampled options". The prevalence of all three biases was related to a Pavlovian approach-avoid parameter quantified within an entirely independent economic decision task. Our large dataset also revealed that individual differences in the amount of information gathered are a stable trait across multiple gameplays and can be related to demographic measures, including age and educational attainment. As well as revealing limitations in cognitive processing, our findings suggest information sampling biases reflect the expression of primitive, yet potentially ecologically adaptive, behavioral repertoires. One such behavior is sampling from options that will eventually be chosen, even when other sources of information are more pertinent for guiding future action.

Topics in expert system design methodologies and tools

CERN Document Server

Tasso, C

1989-01-01

Expert Systems are so far the most promising achievement of artificial intelligence research. Decision making, planning, design, control, supervision and diagnosis are areas where they are showing great potential. However, the establishment of expert system technology and its actual industrial impact are still limited by the lack of a sound, general and reliable design and construction methodology.This book has a dual purpose: to offer concrete guidelines and tools to the designers of expert systems, and to promote basic and applied research on methodologies and tools. It is a coordinated coll

Expert Systems

OpenAIRE

Lucas, P.J.F.

2005-01-01

Expert systems mimic the problem-solving activity of human experts in specialized domains by capturing and representing expert knowledge. Expert systems include a knowledge base, an inference engine that derives conclusions from the knowledge, and a user interface. Knowledge may be stored as if-then rules, orusing other formalisms such as frames and predicate logic. Uncertain knowledge may be represented using certainty factors, Bayesian networks, Dempster-Shafer belief functions, or fuzzy se...

Mitigating Evidentiary Bias in Planning and Policy-Making; Comment on “Reflective Practice: How the World Bank Explored Its Own Biases?”

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Justin Parkhurst

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The field of cognitive psychology has increasingly provided scientific insights to explore how humans are subject to unconscious sources of evidentiary bias, leading to errors that can affect judgement and decision-making. Increasingly these insights are being applied outside the realm of individual decision-making to the collective arena of policy-making as well. A recent editorial in this journal has particularly lauded the work of the World Bank for undertaking an open and critical reflection on sources of unconscious bias in its own expert staff that could undermine achievement of its key goals. The World Bank case indeed serves as a remarkable case of a global policy-making agency making its own critical reflections transparent for all to see. Yet the recognition that humans are prone to cognitive errors has been known for centuries, and the scientific exploration of such biases provided by cognitive psychology is now well-established. What still remains to be developed, however, is a widespread body of work that can inform efforts to institutionalise strategies to mitigate the multiple sources and forms of evidentiary bias arising within administrative and policy-making environments. Addressing this gap will require a programme of conceptual and empirical work that supports robust development and evaluation of institutional bias mitigation strategies. The cognitive sciences provides a scientific basis on which to proceed, but a critical priority will now be the application of that science to improve policy-making within those agencies taking responsibility for social welfare and development programmes.

Preventing halo bias in grading the work of university students

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John M. Malouff

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Experts have advocated anonymous marking as a means of minimizing bias in subjective student assessment. In the present study, 159 faculty members or teaching assistants across disciplines were randomly assigned (1 to grade a poor oral presentation of a university student, (2 to grade a good oral presentation of the same student, or (3 not to grade any oral presentation of the student. All graders then assessed the same written work by the student. A linear-contrasts analysis showed that, as hypothesized, the graders assigned significantly higher scores to written work following the better oral presentation than following the poor oral presentation, with intermediate scores for the written work of the student whose oral presentation was not seen by the graders. The results provide evidence of a halo effect in that prior experience with a student biased the grading of written work completed by the student. The findings suggest that keeping students anonymous, as in the condition with no knowledge of the student’s performance in the oral presentation, helps prevent bias in grading.

Bias changing molecule–lead couple and inducing low bias negative differential resistance for electrons acceptor predicted by first-principles study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Min, Y.; Fang, J.H.; Zhong, C.G.; Dong, Z.C.; Zhao, Z.Y.; Zhou, P.X.; Yao, K.L.

2015-01-01

A first-principles study of the transport properties of 3,13-dimercaptononacene–6,21-dione molecule sandwiched between two gold leads is reported. The strong effect of negative differential resistance with large peak-to-valley ratio of 710% is present under low bias. We found that bias can change molecule–lead couple and induce low bias negative differential resistance for electrons acceptor, which may promise the potential applications in molecular devices with low-power dissipation in the future. - Highlights: • Acceptor is constructed to negative differential resistor (NDR). • NDR effect is present under low bias. • Bias change molecule–lead couple and induce NDR effect

Investigating d-cycloserine as a potential pharmacological enhancer of an emotional bias learning procedure.

Science.gov (United States)

Woud, Marcella L; Blackwell, Simon E; Steudte-Schmiedgen, Susann; Browning, Michael; Holmes, Emily A; Harmer, Catherine J; Margraf, Jürgen; Reinecke, Andrea

2018-05-01

The partial N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor agonist d-cycloserine may enhance psychological therapies. However, its exact mechanism of action is still being investigated. Cognitive bias modification techniques allow isolation of cognitive processes and thus investigation of how they may be affected by d-cycloserine. We used a cognitive bias modification paradigm targeting appraisals of a stressful event, Cognitive Bias Modification-Appraisal, to investigate whether d-cycloserine enhanced the modification of appraisal, and whether it caused greater reduction in indices of psychopathology. Participants received either 250 mg of d-cycloserine ( n=19) or placebo ( n=19). As a stressor task, participants recalled a negative life event, followed by positive Cognitive Bias Modification-Appraisal training. Before and after Cognitive Bias Modification-Appraisal, appraisals and indices of psychopathology related to the stressor were assessed. Cognitive Bias Modification-Appraisal successfully modified appraisals, but d-cycloserine did not affect appraisals post-training. There were no post-training group differences in frequency of intrusions. Interestingly, d-cycloserine led to a greater reduction in distress and impact on state mood from recalling the event, and lower distress post-training was associated with fewer intrusions. Therefore, d-cycloserine may affect emotional reactivity to recalling a negative event when combined with induction of a positive appraisal style, but via a mechanism other than enhanced learning of the appraisal style.

Quality requirements for veterinary hematology analyzers in small animals-a survey about veterinary experts' requirements and objective evaluation of analyzer performance based on a meta-analysis of method validation studies: bench top hematology analyzer.

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, Andrea M; Moritz, Andreas; Freeman, Kathleen P; Bauer, Natali

2016-09-01

Scarce information exists about quality requirements and objective evaluation of performance of large veterinary bench top hematology analyzers. The study was aimed at comparing the observed total error (TEobs ) derived from meta-analysis of published method validation data to the total allowable error (TEa ) for veterinary hematology variables in small animals based on experts' opinions. Ideally, TEobs should be hematology analyzers (ADVIA 2120; Sysmex XT2000iV, and CellDyn 3500) was calculated based on method validation studies published between 2005 and 2013 (n = 4). The percent TEobs = 2 * CV (%) + bias (%). The CV was derived from published studies except for the ADVIA 2120 (internal data), and bias was estimated from the regression equation. A total of 41 veterinary experts (19 diplomates, 8 residents, 10 postgraduate students, 4 anonymous specialists) responded. The proposed range of TEa was wide, but generally ≤ 20%. The TEobs was < TEa for all variables and analyzers except for canine and feline HGB (high bias, low CV) and platelet counts (high bias, high CV). Overall, veterinary bench top analyzers fulfilled experts' requirements except for HGB due to method-related bias, and platelet counts due to known preanalytic/analytic issues. © 2016 American Society for Veterinary Clinical Pathology.

Expert - Non-expert differences in visual behaviour during alpine slalom skiing.

Science.gov (United States)

Decroix, Marjolein; Wazir, Mohd Rozilee Wazir Norjali; Zeuwts, Linus; Deconinck, Frederik F J A; Lenoir, Matthieu; Vansteenkiste, Pieter

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to investigate visual behaviour of expert and non-expert ski athletes during an alpine slalom. Fourteen non-experts and five expert slalom skiers completed an alpine slalom course in an indoor ski slope while wearing a head-mounted eye tracking device. Experts completed the slalom clearly faster than non-experts, but no significant difference was found in timing and position of the turn initiation. Although both groups already looked at future obstacles approximately 0,5s before passing the upcoming pole, the higher speed of experts implied that they shifted gaze spatially earlier in the bend than non-experts. Furthermore, experts focussed more on the second next pole while non-expert slalom skiers looked more to the snow surface immediately in front of their body. No difference was found in the fixation frequency, average fixation duration, and quiet eye duration between both groups. These results suggest that experts focus on the timing of their actions while non-experts still need to pay attention to the execution of these actions. These results also might suggest that ski trainers should instruct non-experts and experts to focus on the next pole and, shift their gaze to the second next pole shortly before reaching it. Based on the current study it seems unadvisable to instruct slalom skiers to look several poles ahead during the actual slalom. However, future research should test if these results still hold on a real outdoor slope, including multiple vertical gates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Management and Security Expert (MASE)

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Mark D.; Barr, Stanley J.; Gryphon, Coranth D.; Keegan, Jeff; Kniker, Catherine A.; Krolak, Patrick D.

1991-01-01

The Management and Security Expert (MASE) is a distributed expert system that monitors the operating systems and applications of a network. It is capable of gleaning the information provided by the different operating systems in order to optimize hardware and software performance; recognize potential hardware and/or software failure, and either repair the problem before it becomes an emergency, or notify the systems manager of the problem; and monitor applications and known security holes for indications of an intruder or virus. MASE can eradicate much of the guess work of system management.

Response of the plasma to the size of an anode electrode biased near the plasma potential

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnat, E. V.; Laity, G. R.; Baalrud, S. D.

2014-01-01

As the size of a positively biased electrode increases, the nature of the interface formed between the electrode and the host plasma undergoes a transition from an electron-rich structure (electron sheath) to an intermediate structure containing both ion and electron rich regions (double layer) and ultimately forms an electron-depleted structure (ion sheath). In this study, measurements are performed to further test how the size of an electron-collecting electrode impacts the plasma discharge the electrode is immersed in. This is accomplished using a segmented disk electrode in which individual segments are individually biased to change the effective surface area of the anode. Measurements of bulk plasma parameters such as the collected current density, plasma potential, electron density, electron temperature and optical emission are made as both the size and the bias placed on the electrode are varied. Abrupt transitions in the plasma parameters resulting from changing the electrode surface area are identified in both argon and helium discharges and are compared to the interface transitions predicted by global current balance [S. D. Baalrud, N. Hershkowitz, and B. Longmier, Phys. Plasmas 14, 042109 (2007)]. While the size-dependent transitions in argon agree, the size-dependent transitions observed in helium systematically occur at lower electrode sizes than those nominally derived from prediction. The discrepancy in helium is anticipated to be caused by the finite size of the interface that increases the effective area offered to the plasma for electron loss to the electrode

Potential sources of bias in the use of Escherichia coli to measure waterborne diarrhoea risk in low-income settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Ercumen, Ayse; Arnold, Benjamin F; Naser, Abu Mohd; Unicomb, Leanne; Colford, John M; Luby, Stephen P

2017-01-01

Escherichia coli is the standard water quality indicator for diarrhoea risk. Yet, the association between E. coli and diarrhoea is inconsistent across studies without a systematic assessment of methodological differences behind this variation. Most studies measure water quality cross-sectionally with diarrhoea, risking exposure misclassification and reverse causation. Studies use different recall windows for self-reported diarrhoea; longer periods increase potential outcome misclassification through misrecall. Control of confounding is inconsistent across studies. Additionally, diarrhoea measured in unblinded intervention trials can present courtesy bias. We utilised measurements from a randomised trial of water interventions in Bangladesh to assess how these factors affect the E. coli-diarrhoea association. We compared cross-sectional versus prospective measurements of water quality and diarrhoea, 2-versus 7-day symptom recall periods, estimates with and without controlling for confounding and using measurements from control versus intervention arms of the trial. In the control arm, 2-day diarrhoea prevalence, measured prospectively 1 month after water quality, significantly increased with log 10 E. coli (PR = 1.50, 1.02-2.20). This association weakened when we used 7-day recall (PR = 1.18, 0.88-1.57), cross-sectional measurements of E. coli and diarrhoea (PR = 1.11, 0.79-1.56) or did not control for confounding (PR = 1.20, 0.88-1.62). Including data from intervention arms led to less interpretable associations, potentially due to courtesy bias, effect modification and/or reverse causation. By systematically addressing potential sources of bias, our analysis demonstrates a clear relationship between E. coli in drinking water and diarrhoea, suggesting that the continued use of E. coli as an indicator of waterborne diarrhoea risk is justified. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of ergonomics training on agreement between expert and nonexpert ratings of the potential for musculoskeletal harm in manufacturing tasks.

Science.gov (United States)

Fethke, Nathan B; Merlino, Linda; Gerr, Fred

2013-12-01

To evaluate the effect of ergonomics training on non-ergonomists' ability to recognize and characterize the potential for musculoskeletal harm in manufacturing tasks. Ergonomics training was delivered to members of a participatory ergonomics team in a manufacturing facility. Before and after training, participatory ergonomics team members and the research team rated the potential for musculoskeletal harm for each of 30 tasks. Measures of agreement included Pearson, concordance, and intraclass correlation coefficients. Measures of agreement generally improved after training. The greatest agreement was observed for ratings of the potential for musculoskeletal harm to the low back. The greatest improvement in agreement was observed for ratings of the potential for musculoskeletal harm to the neck/shoulder. The training seemed to improve non-experts' ability to identify the potential for musculoskeletal harm.

Tools and technologies for expert systems: A human factors perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Rajaram, Navaratna S.

1987-01-01

It is widely recognized that technologies based on artificial intelligence (AI), especially expert systems, can make significant contributions to the productivity and effectiveness of operations of information and knowledge intensive organizations such as NASA. At the same time, these being relatively new technologies, there is the problem of transfering technology to key personnel of such organizations. The problems of examining the potential of expert systems and of technology transfer is addressed in the context of human factors applications. One of the topics of interest was the investigation of the potential use of expert system building tools, particularly NEXPERT as a technology transfer medium. Two basic conclusions were reached in this regard. First, NEXPERT is an excellent tool for rapid prototyping of experimental expert systems, but not ideal as a delivery vehicle. Therefore, it is not a substitute for general purpose system implementation languages such a LISP or C. This assertion probably holds for nearly all such tools on the market today. Second, an effective technology transfer mechanism is to formulate and implement expert systems for problems which members of the organization in question can relate to. For this purpose, the LIghting EnGineering Expert (LIEGE) was implemented using NEXPERT as the tool for technology transfer and to illustrate the value of expert systems to the activities of the Man-System Division.

Preventing halo bias in grading the work of university students

OpenAIRE

John M. Malouff; Sarah J. Stein; Lodewicka N. Bothma; Kimberley Coulter; Ashley J. Emmerton

2014-01-01

Experts have advocated anonymous marking as a means of minimizing bias in subjective student assessment. In the present study, 159 faculty members or teaching assistants across disciplines were randomly assigned (1) to grade a poor oral presentation of a university student, (2) to grade a good oral presentation of the same student, or (3) not to grade any oral presentation of the student. All graders then assessed the same written work by the student. A linear-contrasts analysis showed that, ...

Recent Advances in Attention Bias Modification for Substance Addictions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melvyn Weibin Zhang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Research on attentional bias modification has increased since 2014. A recent meta-analysis demonstrates evidence for bias modification for substance disorders, including alcohol and tobacco use disorders. Several pharmacological trials have shown that pharmacological agents can attenuate and modify such attentional bias. The pharmacological trials that have appeared to date have produced mixed results, which has clinical implications. Developments in Internet and mobile technologies have transformed how attention bias modification is currently being achieved. There remains great potential for further research that examines the efficacy of technology-aided attention bias interventions.

Health risk perception, optimistic bias, and personal satisfaction.

Science.gov (United States)

Bränström, Richard; Brandberg, Yvonne

2010-01-01

To examine change in risk perception and optimistic bias concerning behavior-linked health threats and environmental health threats between adolescence and young adulthood and how these factors related to personal satisfaction. In 1996 and 2002, 1624 adolescents responded to a mailed questionnaire. Adolescents showed strong positive optimistic bias concerning behaviorlinked risks, and this optimistic bias increased with age. Increase in optimistic bias over time predicted increase in personal satisfaction. The capacity to process and perceive potential threats in a positive manner might be a valuable human ability positively influencing personal satisfaction and well-being.

TCABR Tokamak scrape-off layer turbulence with DC biasing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heller, M.V.A.P.; Ferreira, A.A.; Caldas, I.L.; Nascimento, I.C.

2004-01-01

Turbulence and particle transport in plasma scrape-off layer have been controlled by external electric fields. This control can be achieved by a biasing electrode located inside the plasma. We investigate plasma turbulence changes in the scrape-off layer of TCABR tokamak introduced by DC biasing an electrode inside the plasma. Our investigation is based on the alterations observed on the wavelet power spectra and on the intermittent burst sequences of plasma potential and density fluctuations measured by a set of Langmuir probes. Biasing the electrode changes the turbulence statistics and the bursts intermittence. With the imposed external electric field, fluctuation amplitudes, phase velocities, and anomalous particle transport are modified. Transport reduction for higher frequencies induced by the biasing could be due to the strong de-phasing between density and potential fluctuations. The mode coupling increases with the perturbation for the high frequency broadband fluctuations. The total (laminar and bursting) radial particle transport is reduced by about 25% by DC biasing. Bursts contribution to total transport is 15% and for the studied conditions this contribution does not change much with the bias perturbation

Pupil dilations reflect why Rembrandt biased female portraits leftward and males rightward

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James A Schirillo

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Portrait painters are experts at examining faces and since emotional content may be expressed differently on each side of the face, consider that Rembrandt biased his male portraits to show their right cheek more often and female portraits to show their left cheek more often. This raises questions regarding the emotional significance of such biased positions. I presented rightward and leftward facing male and female portraits. I measured observers’ pupil size while asking observers to report how (displeasing they found each image. This was a methodological improvement over the type of research initially done by Eckhard Hess who claimed that pupils dilate to pleasant images and constrict to unpleasant images. His work was confounded since his images’ luminances and contrasts across conditions were inconsistent potentially affecting pupil size. To overcome this limitation I presented rightward or leftward facing male and female portraits by Rembrandt to observers in either their original or mirror-reversed position. I found that in viewing male portraits pupil diameter was a function of arousal. That is, larger pupil diameter occurred for images rated both low and high in pleasantness. This was not the case with female portraits. I discuss these findings in regard to the perceived dominance of males and how emotional expressions may be driven by hemispheric laterality.

Expert ease

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1984-04-01

Expert-ease allows the most inexperienced of computer users to build an expert system in a matter of hours. It is nothing more or less than a computer based problem-solving system. It allows the expert to preserve his or her knowledge in the form of rules, which can be applied to problems put to the system by the non-expert. The crucial piece of software at the heart of Expert-Ease extracts rules from data, and is called the analogue concept learning system. It was developed by Intelligent Terminals Ltd. and supplied to Export Software International to be incorporated into a commercially attractive package for business users. The resulting product runs on the Act Sirius and the IBM PC and compatibles. It is a well conceived and polished product with a popular appeal that should ensure widespread acceptance even at a cost of >1500 plus vat.

Attention bias modification training under working memory load increases the magnitude of change in attentional bias.

Science.gov (United States)

Clarke, Patrick J F; Branson, Sonya; Chen, Nigel T M; Van Bockstaele, Bram; Salemink, Elske; MacLeod, Colin; Notebaert, Lies

2017-12-01

Attention bias modification (ABM) procedures have shown promise as a therapeutic intervention, however current ABM procedures have proven inconsistent in their ability to reliably achieve the requisite change in attentional bias needed to produce emotional benefits. This highlights the need to better understand the precise task conditions that facilitate the intended change in attention bias in order to realise the therapeutic potential of ABM procedures. Based on the observation that change in attentional bias occurs largely outside conscious awareness, the aim of the current study was to determine if an ABM procedure delivered under conditions likely to preclude explicit awareness of the experimental contingency, via the addition of a working memory load, would contribute to greater change in attentional bias. Bias change was assessed among 122 participants in response to one of four ABM tasks given by the two experimental factors of ABM training procedure delivered either with or without working memory load, and training direction of either attend-negative or avoid-negative. Findings revealed that avoid-negative ABM procedure under working memory load resulted in significantly greater reductions in attentional bias compared to the equivalent no-load condition. The current findings will require replication with clinical samples to determine the utility of the current task for achieving emotional benefits. These present findings are consistent with the position that the addition of a working memory load may facilitate change in attentional bias in response to an ABM training procedure. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expert System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hildebrandt, Thomas Troels; Cattani, Gian Luca

2016-01-01

An expert system is a computer system for inferring knowledge from a knowledge base, typically by using a set of inference rules. When the concept of expert systems was introduced at Stanford University in the early 1970s, the knowledge base was an unstructured set of facts. Today the knowledge b...... for the application of expert systems, but also raises issues regarding privacy and legal liability....

Opinions and potential solutions regarding dissemination bias from funding agencies of biomedical research in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Pardo-Hernandez, Hector; Urrútia, Gerard; Meerpohl, Joerg J; Marušić, Ana; Wager, Elizabeth; Bonfill, Xavier

2018-02-01

Several studies have found that about half of research results from clinical trials are never published. Until now, there has been little information on the views that funding agencies of biomedical research in Europe have regarding this issue and its possible solutions. An electronic survey was conducted among funding agencies from 34 European countries. Participants were asked about their opinions, policies, and potential solutions regarding dissemination bias. On the basis of the results of this survey and the input of the OPEN Consortium and of representatives of stakeholder groups in the knowledge generation process, we formulated recommendations for funding agencies to reduce dissemination bias. We received responses from 64 funding agencies of biomedical medicine from most European countries, out of 245 that were contacted (26%). Of these, 56 funded research at the national and/or international level and were therefore eligible to participate. Policies encouraging publication increased over time: 33 (58.9%) of agencies enforced them in 2005 compared to 38 (67.6%) in 2012. However, only 13 (23.2%) had knowledge of the publications related to research funded in 2005, 23 (41.1%) were able to provide only an estimate, and 20 (35.7%) did not know at all. Regarding recommendations to control dissemination bias, we propose that funding agencies request the dissemination of research results irrespective of the direction of findings. We also call for measures that allow evaluating funded projects past the contractual period and until dissemination of results. Funding agencies should create publicly accessible databases with information on funded projects and dissemination efforts. Despite having policies to encourage publication of results, most funding agencies fail to implement such measures or to ensure compliance. We propose recommendations that could be incorporated in the blueprint of calls for proposals and contracts agreed upon by funding agencies and grant

The Sport Expert's Attention Superiority on Skill-related Scene Dynamic by the Activation of left Medial Frontal Gyrus: An ERP and LORETA Study.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Mengyang; Qi, Changzhu; Lu, Yang; Song, Amanda; Hayat, Saba Z; Xu, Xia

2018-05-21

Extensive studies have shown that a sports expert is superior to a sports novice in visually perceptual-cognitive processes of sports scene information, however the attentional and neural basis of it has not been thoroughly explored. The present study examined whether a sport expert has the attentional superiority on scene information relevant to his/her sport skill, and explored what factor drives this superiority. To address this problem, EEGs were recorded as participants passively viewed sport scenes (tennis vs. non-tennis) and negative emotional faces in the context of a visual attention task, where the pictures of sport scenes or of negative emotional faces randomly followed the pictures with overlapping sport scenes and negative emotional faces. ERP results showed that for experts, the evoked potential of attentional competition elicited by the overlap of tennis scene was significantly larger than that evoked by the overlap of non-tennis scene, while this effect was absent for novices. The LORETA showed that the experts' left medial frontal gyrus (MFG) cortex was significantly more active as compared to the right MFG when processing the overlap of tennis scene, but the lateralization effect was not significant in novices. Those results indicate that experts have attentional superiority on skill-related scene information, despite intruding the scene through negative emotional faces that are prone to cause negativity bias toward their visual field as a strong distractor. This superiority is actuated by the activation of left MFG cortex and probably due to self-reference. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Potential sources of analytical bias and error in selected trace element data-quality analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, Angela P.; Garbarino, John R.; Olsen, Lisa D.; Rosen, Michael R.; Mebane, Christopher A.; Struzeski, Tedmund M.

2016-09-28

Potential sources of analytical bias and error associated with laboratory analyses for selected trace elements where concentrations were greater in filtered samples than in paired unfiltered samples were evaluated by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water Quality Specialists in collaboration with the USGS National Water Quality Laboratory (NWQL) and the Branch of Quality Systems (BQS).Causes for trace-element concentrations in filtered samples to exceed those in associated unfiltered samples have been attributed to variability in analytical measurements, analytical bias, sample contamination either in the field or laboratory, and (or) sample-matrix chemistry. These issues have not only been attributed to data generated by the USGS NWQL but have been observed in data generated by other laboratories. This study continues the evaluation of potential analytical bias and error resulting from matrix chemistry and instrument variability by evaluating the performance of seven selected trace elements in paired filtered and unfiltered surface-water and groundwater samples collected from 23 sampling sites of varying chemistries from six States, matrix spike recoveries, and standard reference materials.Filtered and unfiltered samples have been routinely analyzed on separate inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry instruments. Unfiltered samples are treated with hydrochloric acid (HCl) during an in-bottle digestion procedure; filtered samples are not routinely treated with HCl as part of the laboratory analytical procedure. To evaluate the influence of HCl on different sample matrices, an aliquot of the filtered samples was treated with HCl. The addition of HCl did little to differentiate the analytical results between filtered samples treated with HCl from those samples left untreated; however, there was a small, but noticeable, decrease in the number of instances where a particular trace-element concentration was greater in a filtered sample than in the associated

Children's Attentional Biases and "5-HTTLPR" Genotype: Potential Mechanisms Linking Mother and Child Depression

Science.gov (United States)

Gibb, Brandon E.; Benas, Jessica S.; Grassia, Marie; McGeary, John

2009-01-01

In this study, we examined the roles of specific cognitive (attentional bias) and genetic ("5-HTTLPR") risk factors in the intergenerational transmission of depression. Focusing first on the link between maternal history of major depressive disorder (MDD) and children's attentional biases, we found that children of mothers with a history…

Telecontrol - Expert systems. Real-time monitoring and remote diagnostic

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lam, A.

1996-09-01

The role of expert systems in programming simple and complex tasks in utilities companies was discussed with examples from B.C. Hydro, where expert systems have been used in such diverse applications as an in-house programmable logic controller (PLC) training course, and a machine audit on a 150 MW steam turbine generating unit at their Burrard Thermal Generating Plant. The PLC tutoring program uses expert system technology for the air blast circuit breakers` air drier system, for individualized on-site training. The steam turbine audits (an eight-month long project) were performed remotely by dialing an on-site computer configured with customized expert software. Details of these, and other potential applications, such as transformer monitoring and diagnostics, circuit breaker performance analysis, and information management, were described.

Enhanced confinement with plasma biasing in the MST reversed field pinch

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Craig, D.; Almagri, A.F.; Anderson, J.K.

1997-06-01

We report an increase in particle confinement with plasma biasing in a reversed field pinch. Miniature plasma sources are used as electrodes to negatively bias the plasma at the edge (r/a ∼ 0.9). Particle content increases and H α radiation decreases upon application of bias and global particle confinement roughly doubles as a result. Measurements of plasma potential, impurity flow, and floating potential fluctuations indicate that strong flows are produced and that electrostatic fluctuations are reduced

EXPERT SYSTEMS

OpenAIRE

Georgiana Marin; Mihai Catalin Andrei

2011-01-01

In recent decades IT and computer systems have evolved rapidly in economic informatics field. The goal is to create user friendly information systems that respond promptly and accurately to requests. Informatics systems evolved into decision assisted systems, and such systems are converted, based on gained experience, in expert systems for creative problem solving that an organization is facing. Expert systems are aimed at rebuilding human reasoning on the expertise obtained from experts, sto...

Environmental policy. 2000 environmental expert opinion of the Council of Experimental Experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-05-01

The reorientation of energy policy is a key issue. The Council of Environmental Experts considers the further use of atomic energy to be irresponsible and recommends a new orientation. Recommendations are made on ecology-centered taxation. Critical comments are made in the context of conservation of nature, where many species of plants and animals still continue to be endangered. The conservation programme of the Federal government, which also comprises a system of large, interconnected biotopes on 10% of Germany's total surface, is approved, and the potential contribution of sustainable agricultural and forestry policy is discussed in a separate chapter. Further subjects discussed are recycling and waste management, protection of water and soil, air pollution abatement, health protection and genetic engineering. The environmental aspects of Eastern European states becoming EC members are gone into in particular. The network of Europen Environmental Councils, for which the German Council of Environmental Experts currently acts as a coordinator, makes intensive efforts to improve environmental counselling in these states [de

Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care.

Science.gov (United States)

McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

Chinese academic experts' assessment for forest bio-energy development in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qu Mei; Ahponen, Pirkkoliisa; Tahvanainen, Liisa; Pelkonen, Paavo

2010-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the current situation of the forest bio-energy development in China. This assessment is based on opinions of Chinese academic experts. Key drivers and uncertainties regarding the implementation, and the strategies for the future practices in the development of forest bio-energy were investigated. In addition, the purpose of this study was also to determine whether there is a consensus among the experts concerning forest bio-energy and if this consensus agrees with policy-makers in China. A thorough assessment was conducted using a two-round Delphi survey of sixty-one bio-energy experts in China. The results revealed the advantages, potential problems, and the experts' recommendations for the future development. Furthermore, the experts agreed that the Chinese government plays a dominant role in the development process of forest bio-energy in the country. The experts recognized that the process of developing forest bio-energy is a challenging task both domestically and globally. At the same time they also highlighted the potential benefits of developing forest bio-energy in China during the next ten years. The outcomes of this study could be used to give advice to policy-makers and to support the implementation of the future forest bio-energy policies in China.

Effects of biases in domain wall network evolution. II. Quantitative analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Correia, J. R. C. C. C.; Leite, I. S. C. R.; Martins, C. J. A. P.

2018-04-01

Domain walls form at phase transitions which break discrete symmetries. In a cosmological context, they often overclose the Universe (contrary to observational evidence), although one may prevent this by introducing biases or forcing anisotropic evolution of the walls. In a previous work [Correia et al., Phys. Rev. D 90, 023521 (2014), 10.1103/PhysRevD.90.023521], we numerically studied the evolution of various types of biased domain wall networks in the early Universe, confirming that anisotropic networks ultimately reach scaling while those with a biased potential or biased initial conditions decay. We also found that the analytic decay law obtained by Hindmarsh was in good agreement with simulations of biased potentials, but not of biased initial conditions, and suggested that the difference was related to the Gaussian approximation underlying the analytic law. Here, we extend our previous work in several ways. For the cases of biased potential and biased initial conditions, we study in detail the field distributions in the simulations, confirming that the validity (or not) of the Gaussian approximation is the key difference between the two cases. For anisotropic walls, we carry out a more extensive set of numerical simulations and compare them to the canonical velocity-dependent one-scale model for domain walls, finding that the model accurately predicts the linear scaling regime after isotropization. Overall, our analysis provides a quantitative description of the cosmological evolution of these networks.

Evaluation of expert systems - An approach and case study. [of determining software functional requirements for command management of satellites

Science.gov (United States)

Liebowitz, J.

1985-01-01

Techniques that were applied in defining an expert system prototype for first-cut evaluations of the software functional requirements of NASA satellite command management activities are described. The prototype was developed using the Knowledge Engineering System. Criteria were selected for evaluating the satellite software before defining the expert system prototype. Application of the prototype system is illustrated in terms of the evaluation procedures used with the COBE satellite to be launched in 1988. The limited number of options which can be considered by the program mandates that biases in the system output must be well understood by the users.

Expert and Competent Non-Expert Visual Cues during Simulated Diagnosis in Intensive Care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clare eMcCormack

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye tracker during the initial 90 seconds of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

Potential for bias in 21st century semiempirical sea level projections

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jevrejeva, S.; Moore, J. C.; Grinsted, A.

2012-01-01

by satellite altimetry. Nonradiative forcing contributors, such as long-term adjustment of Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets since Last Glacial Maximum, abyssal ocean warming, and terrestrial water storage, may bias model calibration which, if corrected for, tend to reduce median sea level projections...

Biases in Quality Attribution to Mother-Child and Caregiver-Child Interaction.

Science.gov (United States)

Shpancer, Noam; Britner, Preston A.

1995-01-01

Examined the possible existence, direction, and nature of subconscious, cognitive biases in participants' quality attributions to maternal and nonmaternal child-care interactions, the relationship of such biases to subject's background, and their attitudes toward child care and maternal employment. Potential explanations for the biases and the…

Electrode and limiter biasing experiments on the tokamak ISTTOK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, C.; Figueiredo, H.; Cabral, J.A.C.; Nedzelsky, I.; Varandas, C.A.F.

2003-01-01

In this contribution limiter and electrode biasing experiments are compared, in particular in what concerns their effects on the edge plasma parameters. For electrode AC bias a substantial increase (>50%) in the average plasma density is observed with positive voltage, without significant changes in the edge density, leading to steeper profiles. The ratio n e /Hα also increases significantly (>20%), indicating an improvement in gross particle confinement. The plasma potential profile is strongly modified as both the edge E r and its shear increase significantly. For positive limiter bias an increase in the average plasma density and the radiation losses is observed, resulting in almost no modification, or a slight, in particle confinement. Preliminary results of simultaneous electrode and limiter bias experiments show that the control of the plasma potential profile is very limited, since negative voltages do not modify the plasma parameters significantly. (author)

Rule base system in developing groundwater pollution expert system: predicting model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mongkon Ta-oun; Mohamed Daud; Mohd Zohadie Bardaie; Shamshuddin Jusop

2000-01-01

New techniques are now available for use in the protection of the environment. One of these techniques is the use of expert system for prediction groundwater pollution potential. Groundwater Pollution Expert system (GWPES) rules are a collection of principles and procedures used to know the comprehension of groundwater pollution prediction. The rules of groundwater pollution expert system in the form of questions, choice, radio-box, slide rule, button or frame are translated in to IF-THEN rule. The rules including of variables, types, domains and descriptions were used by the function of wxCLIPS (C Language Integrate Production System) expert system shell. (author)

The Biases of Thinking Fast and Thinking Slow

OpenAIRE

Streeb, Dirk; Chen, Min; Keim, Daniel A.

2017-01-01

Visualization is a human-centric process, which is inevitably as- sociated with potential biases in humans’ judgment and decision making. While the discussions on humans’ biases have been heavily influenced the work of Daniel Kahneman as summarized in his book “Thinking, Fast and Slow” [8], there have also been viewpoints in psychology in favor of heuristics (e.g., [6]). In this paper, we present a balanced discourse on the humans’ heuristics and biases as the two sides of the same coin. In p...

Negativity Bias in Dangerous Drivers.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jing Chai

Full Text Available The behavioral and cognitive characteristics of dangerous drivers differ significantly from those of safe drivers. However, differences in emotional information processing have seldom been investigated. Previous studies have revealed that drivers with higher anger/anxiety trait scores are more likely to be involved in crashes and that individuals with higher anger traits exhibit stronger negativity biases when processing emotions compared with control groups. However, researchers have not explored the relationship between emotional information processing and driving behavior. In this study, we examined the emotional information processing differences between dangerous drivers and safe drivers. Thirty-eight non-professional drivers were divided into two groups according to the penalty points that they had accrued for traffic violations: 15 drivers with 6 or more points were included in the dangerous driver group, and 23 drivers with 3 or fewer points were included in the safe driver group. The emotional Stroop task was used to measure negativity biases, and both behavioral and electroencephalograph data were recorded. The behavioral results revealed stronger negativity biases in the dangerous drivers than in the safe drivers. The bias score was correlated with self-reported dangerous driving behavior. Drivers with strong negativity biases reported having been involved in mores crashes compared with the less-biased drivers. The event-related potentials (ERPs revealed that the dangerous drivers exhibited reduced P3 components when responding to negative stimuli, suggesting decreased inhibitory control of information that is task-irrelevant but emotionally salient. The influence of negativity bias provides one possible explanation of the effects of individual differences on dangerous driving behavior and traffic crashes.

Potential for Bias When Estimating Critical Windows for Air Pollution in Children's Health.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Ander; Chiu, Yueh-Hsiu Mathilda; Hsu, Hsiao-Hsien Leon; Wright, Robert O; Wright, Rosalind J; Coull, Brent A

2017-12-01

Evidence supports an association between maternal exposure to air pollution during pregnancy and children's health outcomes. Recent interest has focused on identifying critical windows of vulnerability. An analysis based on a distributed lag model (DLM) can yield estimates of a critical window that are different from those from an analysis that regresses the outcome on each of the 3 trimester-average exposures (TAEs). Using a simulation study, we assessed bias in estimates of critical windows obtained using 3 regression approaches: 1) 3 separate models to estimate the association with each of the 3 TAEs; 2) a single model to jointly estimate the association between the outcome and all 3 TAEs; and 3) a DLM. We used weekly fine-particulate-matter exposure data for 238 births in a birth cohort in and around Boston, Massachusetts, and a simulated outcome and time-varying exposure effect. Estimates using separate models for each TAE were biased and identified incorrect windows. This bias arose from seasonal trends in particulate matter that induced correlation between TAEs. Including all TAEs in a single model reduced bias. DLM produced unbiased estimates and added flexibility to identify windows. Analysis of body mass index z score and fat mass in the same cohort highlighted inconsistent estimates from the 3 methods. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Expert consensus on an in vitro approach to assess pulmonary fibrogenic potential of aerosolized nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Clippinger, Amy J; Ahluwalia, Arti; Allen, David; Bonner, James C; Casey, Warren; Castranova, Vincent; David, Raymond M; Halappanavar, Sabina; Hotchkiss, Jon A; Jarabek, Annie M; Maier, Monika; Polk, William; Rothen-Rutishauser, Barbara; Sayes, Christie M; Sayre, Phil; Sharma, Monita; Stone, Vicki

2016-07-01

The increasing use of multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) in consumer products and their potential to induce adverse lung effects following inhalation has lead to much interest in better understanding the hazard associated with these nanomaterials (NMs). While the current regulatory requirement for substances of concern, such as MWCNTs, in many jurisdictions is a 90-day rodent inhalation test, the monetary, ethical, and scientific concerns associated with this test led an international expert group to convene in Washington, DC, USA, to discuss alternative approaches to evaluate the inhalation toxicity of MWCNTs. Pulmonary fibrosis was identified as a key adverse outcome linked to MWCNT exposure, and recommendations were made on the design of an in vitro assay that is predictive of the fibrotic potential of MWCNTs. While fibrosis takes weeks or months to develop in vivo, an in vitro test system may more rapidly predict fibrogenic potential by monitoring pro-fibrotic mediators (e.g., cytokines and growth factors). Therefore, the workshop discussions focused on the necessary specifications related to the development and evaluation of such an in vitro system. Recommendations were made for designing a system using lung-relevant cells co-cultured at the air-liquid interface to assess the pro-fibrogenic potential of aerosolized MWCNTs, while considering human-relevant dosimetry and NM life cycle transformations. The workshop discussions provided the fundamental design components of an air-liquid interface in vitro test system that will be subsequently expanded to the development of an alternative testing strategy to predict pulmonary toxicity and to generate data that will enable effective risk assessment of NMs.

Effects of limiter biasing on the ATF torsatron

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uckan, T.; Baylor, L.R.; Bell, J.D.; Bigelow, T.S.; England, A.C.; Harris, J.H.; Isler, R.C.; Jernigan, T.C.; Lyon, J.F.; Ma, C.H.; Mioduszewski, P.K.; Murakami, M.; Rasmussen, D.A.; Wilgen, J.B.; Aceto, S.C.; Zielinski, J.J.

1992-09-01

Positive limiter biasing on the currentless Advanced Toroidal Facility (ATF) torsatron produces a significant increase in the particle confinement with no improvement in the energy confinement. Experiments have been carried out in 1-T plasmas with ∼400 kill of electron cyclotron heating ECM. Two rail limiters located at the last closed flux surface (LCFS), one at the top and one at the bottom of the device, are biased at positive and negative potentials with respect to the vessel. When the limiters are positively biased at up to 300 V, the density increases sharply to the ECH cutoff value. At the same time, the H α radiation drops, indicating that the particle confinement improves. When the density is kept constant, the H α radiation is further reduced and there is almost no change in the plasma stored energy. Under these conditions, the density profile becomes peaked and the electric field becomes outward-pointing outside the LCFS and more negative inside the LCFS. In contrast, negative biasing yields some reduction of the density and stored energy at constant gas feed, and the plasma potential profile remains the same. Biasing has almost no effect on the intrinsic impurity levels in the plasma

Expert system technology to support emergency response: its prospects and limitations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Belardo, S.; Wallace, W.A.

1988-01-01

The capabilities for computer technologies to provide decision support in emergency response are now well recognized. The information flow prior to, during, and after potentially catastrophic events must be managed in order to have effective response. We feel strongly that computer technology can be a crucial component in this management process. We will first review a relatively new facet of computer technology - expert systems. We will then provide a conceptual framework for decision making under crisis, a situation typified by emergency response. We follow with a discussion of a prototype expert system for response to an accident at a nuclear power generation facility. Our final section discusses the potential advantages and limitations of expert system technology in emergency response. (author)

Plutonium - the ultrapoison? An expert's opinion about an expert opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stoll, W.; Becker, K.

1989-01-01

In an expert opinion written by Professor H. Kuni, Marburg, for the North Rhine-Westphalian state government, plutonium is called by far the most dangerous element in the Periodic Table. The Marburg medical expert holds that even improved legal instruments are unable to warrant effective protection of the workers handling this material, in the light of the present standards of industrial safety, because of radiological conditions and measuring problems with plutonium isotopes. In this article by an internationally renowned expert in the field, the ideas expressed in the expert opinion about the toxicity of plutonium, the cause-and-effect relationship in radiation damage by plutonium, and recent findings about the toxicity are subjected to a critical review. On the basis of results of radiation protection and of case studies, the statements in the expert opinion are contrasted with facts which make them appear in a very different light. (orig./RB) [de

Expert status and performance.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark A Burgman

Full Text Available Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.

Context effects and observer bias--implications for forensic odontology.

Science.gov (United States)

Page, Mark; Taylor, Jane; Blenkin, Matt

2012-01-01

Psychologists have long recognized the effects of contextual and extraneous information on decision making. Such information renders the subject susceptible to both motivational and cognitive bias; yet, it is difficult to assess the extent to which these influence forensic odontologists opinions as there have been no studies to date on this subject. This article explores the various types of contextual effects and biasing influences that potentially impact on the analysis of bitemarks in forensic odontology. It appears that the current practice of bitemark analysis is rich in sources of potentially biasing influences. In addition to the fundamental recognition that some form of bias is likely to exist, ways in which these should be minimized include: separation of the collection and analysis phases; limiting the amount of contextual information available to the odontologist responsible for the analysis; and ensuring that evidence that is ambiguous or of poor quality is identified as such prior to analysis. © 2011 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Medical Expert Systems Survey

OpenAIRE

Abu-Nasser, Bassem S.

2017-01-01

International audience; There is an increased interest in the area of Artificial Intelligence in general and expert systems in particular. Expert systems are rapidly growing technology. Expert systems are a branch of Artificial Intelligence which is having a great impact on many fields of human life. Expert systems use human expert knowledge to solve complex problems in many fields such as Health, science, engineering, business, and weather forecasting. Organizations employing the technology ...

Sources of bias in clinical ethics case deliberation.

Science.gov (United States)

Magelssen, Morten; Pedersen, Reidar; Førde, Reidun

2014-10-01

A central task for clinical ethics consultants and committees (CEC) is providing analysis of, and advice on, prospective or retrospective clinical cases. However, several kinds of biases may threaten the integrity, relevance or quality of the CEC's deliberation. Bias should be identified and, if possible, reduced or counteracted. This paper provides a systematic classification of kinds of bias that may be present in a CEC's case deliberation. Six kinds of bias are discussed, with examples, as to their significance and risk factors. Possible remedies are suggested. The potential for bias is greater when the case deliberation is performed by an individual ethics consultant than when an entire clinical ethics committee is involved. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Approach bias for food cues in obese individuals.

Science.gov (United States)

Kemps, Eva; Tiggemann, Marika

2015-01-01

This study aimed to investigate the existence of an approach bias for food cues in obese individuals. A community sample of 56 obese women and 56 normal weight controls completed an approach-avoidance variant of the implicit association task. The obese participants were faster to respond to trials that paired food words with approach words, and trials that paired non-food words with avoid words, than the converse pairings, thus, demonstrating an approach bias for food. This bias was evident for both high caloric and low caloric food words, and was not attributable to a state of deprivation or feelings of hunger. By contrast, the normal weight controls did not show any such bias. The results are consistent with recent neurocognitive perspectives of obesity. At a practical level, approach biases for food may present a potential target for modifying (excessive) food intake.

Inter-expert and intra-expert reliability in sleep spindle scoring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter; Sørensen, Helge Bjarup Dissing

2015-01-01

Objectives To measure the inter-expert and intra-expert agreement in sleep spindle scoring, and to quantify how many experts are needed to build a reliable dataset of sleep spindle scorings. Methods The EEG dataset was comprised of 400 randomly selected 115 s segments of stage 2 sleep from 110...... with higher reliability than the estimation of spindle duration. Reliability of sleep spindle scoring can be improved by using qualitative confidence scores, rather than a dichotomous yes/no scoring system. Conclusions We estimate that 2–3 experts are needed to build a spindle scoring dataset...... with ‘substantial’ reliability (κ: 0.61–0.8), and 4 or more experts are needed to build a dataset with ‘almost perfect’ reliability (κ: 0.81–1). Significance Spindle scoring is a critical part of sleep staging, and spindles are believed to play an important role in development, aging, and diseases of the nervous...

Cognitive bias in symptomatic and recovered agoraphobics.

Science.gov (United States)

Stoler, L S; McNally, R J

1991-01-01

Symptomatic agoraphobics, recovered agoraphobics, and normal control subjects completed a series of sentence stems that had either ambiguous or unambiguous meanings, and had either a potentially threatening or a nonthreatening connotation. The written completions made by subjects to these stems were classified as indicating either a biased (i.e. threat-related) or unbiased interpretation of the meaning of the stem, and if a biased interpretation was made, whether the subject indicated efforts at adaptive coping with the perceived threat. Results indicated that symptomatic agoraphobics exhibited strong biases for interpreting information as threatening, relative to normal control subjects. Moreover, recovered agoraphobics resembled symptomatic agoraphobics more than normal control subjects, thus indicating that cognitive biases may persist following cessation of panic attacks and reductions in avoidance behavior. However, recovered agoraphobics also exhibited tendencies to cope adaptively with perceived threats whereas symptomatic agoraphobics did not.

Considerations in development of expert systems for real-time space applications

Science.gov (United States)

Murugesan, S.

1988-01-01

Over the years, demand on space systems has increased tremendously and this trend will continue for the near future. Enhanced capabilities of space systems, however, can only be met with increased complexity and sophistication of onboard and ground systems. Artificial Intelligence and expert system techniques have great potential in space applications. Expert systems could facilitate autonomous decision making, improve in-orbit fault diagnosis and repair, enhance performance and reduce reliance on ground support. However, real-time expert systems, unlike conventional off-line consultative systems, have to satisfy certain special stringent requirements before they could be used for onboard space applications. Challenging and interesting new environments are faced while developing expert system space applications. This paper discusses the special characteristics, requirements and typical life cycle issues for onboard expert systems. Further, it also describes considerations in design, development, and implementation which are particularly important to real-time expert systems for space applications.

Real time expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asami, Tohru; Hashimoto, Kazuo; Yamamoto, Seiichi

1992-01-01

Recently, aiming at the application to the plant control for nuclear reactors and traffic and communication control, the research and the practical use of the expert system suitable to real time processing have become conspicuous. In this report, the condition for the required function to control the object that dynamically changes within a limited time is presented, and the technical difference between the real time expert system developed so as to satisfy it and the expert system of conventional type is explained with the actual examples and from theoretical aspect. The expert system of conventional type has the technical base in the problem-solving equipment originating in STRIPS. The real time expert system is applied to the fields accompanied by surveillance and control, to which conventional expert system is hard to be applied. The requirement for the real time expert system, the example of the real time expert system, and as the techniques of realizing real time processing, the realization of interruption processing, dispersion processing, and the mechanism of maintaining the consistency of knowledge are explained. (K.I.)

How planners' use and non-use of expert knowledge in land use and transport planning affect the goal achievement potential of plans? Experiences from three Scandinavian cities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tennøy, Aud; Hansson, Lisa; Lissandrello, Enza

2016-01-01

regions. Even if diffusion of research-based knowledge have been investigated, planners' use of expert knowledge when making plans, and the effects on the content of plans, have gained surprisingly little attention in planning research. Over the past few years, interesting discussions concerning...... achievement potential of plans. This knowledge is the main basis for many planners' knowing and acting, and fundamental for land use and transport planning being coordinated and for traffic-reducing measures being included in the plans. The knowledge is used for explaining cause-effect relations......, and as arguments for selecting traffic-reducing measures. All examined plans also include strategies reducing their goal achievement potentials. This happens through a mix of mechanisms. When competing objectives or ideas seemingly call for traffic-increasing measures, the planners do not use the expert knowledge...

Comprehensive embryo testing. Experts' opinions regarding future directions: an expert panel study on comprehensive embryo testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Hens, Kristien; Dondorp, Wybo J; Geraedts, Joep P M; de Wert, Guido M

2013-05-01

What do scientists in the field of preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) and preimplantation genetic screening (PGS) consider to be the future direction of comprehensive embryo testing? Although there are many biological and technical limitations, as well as uncertainties regarding the meaning of genetic variation, comprehensive embryo testing will impact the IVF/PGD practice and a timely ethical reflection is needed. Comprehensive testing using microarrays is currently being introduced in the context of PGD and PGS, and it is to be expected that whole-genome sequencing will also follow. Current ethical and empirical sociological research on embryo testing focuses on PGD as it is practiced now. However, empirical research and systematic reflection regarding the impact of comprehensive techniques for embryo testing is missing. In order to understand the potential of this technology and to be able to adequately foresee its implications, we held an expert panel with seven pioneers in PGD. We conducted an expert panel in October 2011 with seven PGD pioneers from Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany and the UK. Participants expected the use of comprehensive techniques in the context of PGD. However, the introduction of these techniques in embryo testing requires timely ethical reflection as it involves a shift from choosing an embryo without a particular genetic disease (i.e. PGD) or most likely to result in a successful pregnancy (i.e. PGS) to choosing the best embryo based on a much wider set of criteria. Such ethical reflection should take account of current technical and biological limitations and also of current uncertainties with regard to the meaning of genetic variance. However, ethicists should also not be afraid to look into the future. There was a general agreement that embryo testing will be increasingly preceded by comprehensive preconception screening, thus enabling smart combinations of genetic testing. The group was composed of seven participants from

A method for additive bias correction in cross-cultural surveys

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scholderer, Joachim; Grunert, Klaus G.; Brunsø, Karen

2001-01-01

additive bias from cross-cultural data. The procedure involves four steps: (1) embed a potentially biased item in a factor-analytic measurement model, (2) test for the existence of additive bias between populations, (3) use the factor-analytic model to estimate the magnitude of the bias, and (4) replace......Measurement bias in cross-cultural surveys can seriously threaten the validity of hypothesis tests. Direct comparisons of means depend on the assumption that differences in observed variables reflect differences in the underlying constructs, and not an additive bias that may be caused by cultural...... differences in the understanding of item wording or response category labels. However, experience suggests that additive bias can be found more often than not. Based on the concept of partial measurement invariance (Byrne, Shavelson and Muthén, 1989), the present paper develops a procedure for eliminating...

Common method biases in behavioral research: a critical review of the literature and recommended remedies.

Science.gov (United States)

Podsakoff, Philip M; MacKenzie, Scott B; Lee, Jeong-Yeon; Podsakoff, Nathan P

2003-10-01

Interest in the problem of method biases has a long history in the behavioral sciences. Despite this, a comprehensive summary of the potential sources of method biases and how to control for them does not exist. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to examine the extent to which method biases influence behavioral research results, identify potential sources of method biases, discuss the cognitive processes through which method biases influence responses to measures, evaluate the many different procedural and statistical techniques that can be used to control method biases, and provide recommendations for how to select appropriate procedural and statistical remedies for different types of research settings.

Colour vision and response bias in a coral reef fish.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheney, Karen L; Newport, Cait; McClure, Eva C; Marshall, N Justin

2013-08-01

Animals use coloured signals for a variety of communication purposes, including to attract potential mates, recognize individuals, defend territories and warn predators of secondary defences (aposematism). To understand the mechanisms that drive the evolution and design of such visual signals, it is important to understand the visual systems and potential response biases of signal receivers. Here, we provide raw data on the spectral capabilities of a coral reef fish, the Picasso triggerfish Rhinecanthus aculeatus, which is potentially trichromatic with three cone sensitivities of 413 nm (single cone), 480 nm (double cone, medium sensitivity) and 528 nm (double cone, long sensitivity), and a rod sensitivity of 498 nm. The ocular media have a 50% transmission cut off at 405 nm. Behavioural experiments confirmed colour vision over their spectral range; triggerfish were significantly more likely to choose coloured stimuli over grey distractors, irrespective of luminance. We then examined whether response biases existed towards coloured and patterned stimuli to provide insight into how visual signals - in particular, aposematic colouration - may evolve. Triggerfish showed a preferential foraging response bias to red and green stimuli, in contrast to blue and yellow, irrespective of pattern. There was no response bias to patterned over monochromatic non-patterned stimuli. A foraging response bias towards red in fish differs from that of avian predators, who often avoid red food items. Red is frequently associated with warning colouration in terrestrial environments (ladybirds, snakes, frogs), whilst blue is used in aquatic environments (blue-ringed octopus, nudibranchs); whether the design of warning (aposematic) displays is a cause or consequence of response biases is unclear.

Sources of method bias in social science research and recommendations on how to control it.

Science.gov (United States)

Podsakoff, Philip M; MacKenzie, Scott B; Podsakoff, Nathan P

2012-01-01

Despite the concern that has been expressed about potential method biases, and the pervasiveness of research settings with the potential to produce them, there is disagreement about whether they really are a problem for researchers in the behavioral sciences. Therefore, the purpose of this review is to explore the current state of knowledge about method biases. First, we explore the meaning of the terms "method" and "method bias" and then we examine whether method biases influence all measures equally. Next, we review the evidence of the effects that method biases have on individual measures and on the covariation between different constructs. Following this, we evaluate the procedural and statistical remedies that have been used to control method biases and provide recommendations for minimizing method bias.

Effects of Cognitive Bias Modification Training via Smartphones

OpenAIRE

Ranming Yang; Ranming Yang; Lixia Cui; Feng Li; Jing Xiao; Qin Zhang; Tian P. S. Oei; Tian P. S. Oei

2017-01-01

Background and Objectives: Negative cognitive biases have been linked to anxiety and mood problems. Accumulated data from laboratory studies show that positive and negative interpretation styles with accompanying changes in mood can be induced through cognitive bias modification (CBM) paradigms. Despite the therapeutic potential of positive training effects, few studies have explored training paradigms administered via smartphones. The current study aimed to compare the effectiveness of three...

Attentional bias modification encourages healthy eating.

Science.gov (United States)

Kakoschke, Naomi; Kemps, Eva; Tiggemann, Marika

2014-01-01

The continual exposure to unhealthy food cues in the environment encourages poor dietary habits, in particular consuming too much fat and sugar, and not enough fruit and vegetables. According to Berridge's (2009) model of food reward, unhealthy eating is a behavioural response to biased attentional processing. The present study used an established attentional bias modification paradigm to discourage the consumption of unhealthy food and instead promote healthy eating. Participants were 146 undergraduate women who were randomly assigned to two groups: one was trained to direct their attention toward pictures of healthy food ('attend healthy' group) and the other toward unhealthy food ('attend unhealthy' group). It was found that participants trained to attend to healthy food cues demonstrated an increased attentional bias for such cues and ate relatively more of the healthy than unhealthy snacks compared to the 'attend unhealthy' group. Theoretically, the results support the postulated link between biased attentional processing and consumption (Berridge, 2009). At a practical level, they offer potential scope for interventions that focus on eating well. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sympathetic bias.

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, David M; Peart, Sandra J

2008-06-01

We wish to deal with investigator bias in a statistical context. We sketch how a textbook solution to the problem of "outliers" which avoids one sort of investigator bias, creates the temptation for another sort. We write down a model of the approbation seeking statistician who is tempted by sympathy for client to violate the disciplinary standards. We give a simple account of one context in which we might expect investigator bias to flourish. Finally, we offer tentative suggestions to deal with the problem of investigator bias which follow from our account. As we have given a very sparse and stylized account of investigator bias, we ask what might be done to overcome this limitation.

Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

1992-01-01

Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

Being an expert

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brechet, Y.; Musseau, O.; Bruna, G.; Sperandio, M.; Roulleaux-Dugage, M.; Andrieux, S.; Metteau, L.

2014-01-01

This series of short articles are dedicated to the role of the expert in the enterprise. There is an important difference between a scientific counsellor and an expert, the expert, recognized by his peers, can speak publicly in his field of expertise but has a duty of transparency while the job of a scientific counsellor requires confidentiality. The making and the use of an expert in an enterprise requires a dedicated organization. The organization of the expertise in 5 enterprises in nuclear industry are considered: CEA (French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission), IRSN (Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety), AREVA, ANDRA (National Radioactive Waste Management Agency) and EDF (Electricity of France)

Expert Nordic perspectives on the potential of novel inhalers to overcome unmet needs in the management of obstructive lung disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Løkke, Anders; Ahlbeck, Lars; Bjermer, Leif

2015-01-01

fails to achieve adequate lung deposition and therapeutic effect. In this report, the potential of novel inhaler devices to overcome unmet needs in the management of obstructive lung disease is considered by a panel of Nordic experts. The panel concludes that innovative inhalers can contribute to good......The effective self-management of obstructive lung disease is dependent upon the patient achieving good inhaler technique. However, many current inhalers are complicated to use, which may lead to handling difficulties. These difficulties can cause clinically relevant errors, whereby pharmacotherapy...... disease management and better use of healthcare resources....

Strategies to Prevent or Reduce Gender Bias in Peer Review of Research Grants: A Rapid Scoping Review.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea C Tricco

Full Text Available To review the literature on strategies implemented or identified to prevent or reduce gender bias in peer review of research grants.Studies of any type of qualitative or quantitative design examining interventions to reduce or prevent gender bias during the peer review of health-related research grants were included. Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, Education Resources Information Center (ERIC, PsycINFO, Joanna Briggs, the Cochrane Library, Evidence Based Medicine (EBM Reviews, and the Campbell Library were searched from 2005 to April 2016. A search for grey (i.e., difficult to locate or unpublished literature was conducted and experts in the field were consulted to identify additional potentially relevant articles. Two individuals screened titles and abstracts, full-text articles, and abstracted data with discrepancies resolved by a third person consistently.After screening 5524 citations and 170 full-text articles, one article evaluating gender-blinding of grant applications using an uncontrolled before-after study design was included. In this study, 891 applications for long-term fellowships in 2006 were included and 47% of the applicants were women. These were scored by 13 peer reviewers (38% were women. The intervention included eliminating references to gender from the applications, letters of recommendations, and interview reports that were sent to the committee members for evaluation. The proportion of successful applications led by women did not change with gender-blinding, although the number of successful applications that were led by men increased slightly.There is limited research on interventions to mitigate gender bias in the peer review of grants. Only one study was identified and no difference in the proportion of women who were successful in receiving grant funding was observed. Our results suggest that interventions to prevent gender bias should be adapted and tested in the context of grant peer review to

Decision-making behavior of experts at nuclear power plants. Regulatory focus influence on cognitive heuristics; Entscheidungsverhalten von Experten in Kernkraftwerken. Der Einfluss des regulatorischen Fokus auf kognitive Heuristiken

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beck, Johannes

2015-09-15

The goal of this research project was to examine factors, on the basis of regulatory focus theory and the heuristics and biases approach, that influence decision-making processes of experts at nuclear power plants. Findings show that this group applies anchoring (heuristic) when evaluating conjunctive and disjunctive events and that they maintain a constant regulatory focus characteristic. No influence of the experts' characteristic regulatory focus on cognitive heuristics could be established. Theoretical and practical consequences on decision-making behavior of experts are presented. Finally, a method for measuring the use of heuristics especially in the nuclear industry is discussed.

Combination of biased forecasts: Bias correction or bias based weights?

OpenAIRE

Wenzel, Thomas

1999-01-01

Most of the literature on combination of forecasts deals with the assumption of unbiased individual forecasts. Here, we consider the case of biased forecasts and discuss two different combination techniques resulting in an unbiased forecast. On the one hand we correct the individual forecasts, and on the other we calculate bias based weights. A simulation study gives some insight in the situations where we should use the different methods.

System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Mieg, Harald A.

2006-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

Estimation bias and bias correction in reduced rank autoregressions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Heino Bohn

2017-01-01

This paper characterizes the finite-sample bias of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in a reduced rank vector autoregression and suggests two simulation-based bias corrections. One is a simple bootstrap implementation that approximates the bias at the MLE. The other is an iterative root...

Potential bias factors that affect the course evaluation of students in preclinical courses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Su Jin Chae

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Purpose We aim to identify what potential bias factors affected students’ overall course evaluation, and to observe what factors should be considered in the curriculum evaluation system of medical schools. Methods This study analyzed students’ ratings of preclinical instructions at the Ajou University School of Medicine. The ratings of instructions involved 41 first-year and 45 second-year medical students. Results There was a statistically significant difference between years of study and ratings’ scoring. Learning difficulty, learning amount, student assessment, and teacher preparation from second-year students were significantly higher than first-year students (p<0.05. The analysis results revealed that student assessment was the predictor of ratings from first-year students, while teacher preparation was the predictor of ratings from second-year students. Conclusion We found significant interactions between year of study and the students’ rating results. We were able to confirm that satisfaction of instructions factors perceived by medical students were different for the characteristics of courses. Our results may be an important resource for evaluating preclinical curriculums.

Affective Biases in Humans and Animals.

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, E S J; Roiser, J P

Depression is one of the most common but poorly understood psychiatric conditions. Although drug treatments and psychological therapies are effective in some patients, many do not achieve full remission and some patients receive no apparent benefit. Developing new improved treatments requires a better understanding of the aetiology of symptoms and evaluation of novel therapeutic targets in pre-clinical studies. Recent developments in our understanding of the basic cognitive processes that may contribute to the development of depression and its treatment offer new opportunities for both clinical and pre-clinical research. This chapter discusses the clinical evidence supporting a cognitive neuropsychological model of depression and antidepressant efficacy, and how this information may be usefully translated to pre-clinical investigation. Studies using neuropsychological tests in depressed patients and at risk populations have revealed basic negative emotional biases and disrupted reward and punishment processing, which may also impact on non-affective cognition. These affective biases are sensitive to antidepressant treatments with early onset effects observed, suggesting an important role in recovery. This clinical work into affective biases has also facilitated back-translation to animals and the development of assays to study affective biases in rodents. These animal studies suggest that, similar to humans, rodents in putative negative affective states exhibit negative affective biases on decision-making and memory tasks. Antidepressant treatments also induce positive biases in these rodent tasks, supporting the translational validity of this approach. Although still in the early stages of development and validation, affective biases in depression have the potential to offer new insights into the clinical condition, as well as facilitating the development of more translational approaches for pre-clinical studies.

Hybrid expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsoukalas, L.; Ikonomopoulos, A.; Uhrig, R.E.

1991-01-01

This paper presents a methodology that couples rule-based expert systems using fuzzy logic, to pre-trained artificial neutral networks (ANN) for the purpose of transient identification in Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In order to provide timely concise, and task-specific information about the may aspects of the transient and to determine the state of the system based on the interpretation of potentially noisy data a model-referenced approach is utilized. In it, the expert system performs the basic interpretation and processing of the model data, and pre-trained ANNs provide the model. having access to a set of neural networks that typify general categories of transients, the rule based system is able to perform identification functions. Membership functions - condensing information about a transient in a form convenient for a rule-based identification system characterizing a transient - are the output of neural computations. This allows the identification function to be performed with a speed comparable to or faster than that of the temporal evolution of the system. Simulator data form major secondary system pipe rupture is used to demonstrate the methodology. The results indicate excellent noise-tolerance for ANN's and suggest a new method for transient identification within the framework of Fuzzy Logic

Expert systems for C3I. Volume 1. A user's introduction

Science.gov (United States)

Clapp, J. A.; Hockett, S. M.; Prelle, M. J.; Tallant, A. M.; Triant, D. D.

1985-10-01

There has been a tremendous burgeoning of interest in artificial intelligence (AI) over the last few years. Investments of commercial and government sponsors reflect a widespread belief that AI is now ready for practical applications. The area of AI currently receiving the greatest attention and investment is expert system technology. Most major high tech corporations have begun to develop expert systems, and many software houses specializing in expert system tools and applications have recently appeared. The defense community is one of the heaviest investors in expert system technology, and within this community one of the application areas receiving greatest attention is C3I. Many ESD programs are now beginning to ask whether expert system applications for C3I are ready for incorporation into ESD-developed systems, and, if so, what are the potential benefits and risks of doing so. This report was prepared to help ESD and MITRE personnel working on acquisition programs to address these issues and to gain a better understanding of what expert systems are all about. The primary intention of this report is to investigate what expert systems are and the advances that are being made in expert system technology for C3I applications. The report begins with a brief tutorial on expert systems, emphasizing how they differ from conventional software systems and what they are best at doing.

Expert auditors’ services classification

OpenAIRE

Jolanta Wisniewska

2013-01-01

The profession of an expert auditor is a public trust occupation with a distinctive feature of taking responsibility for actions in the public interest. The main responsibility of expert auditors is performing financial auditing; however, expert auditors are prepared to carry out different tasks which encompass a wide plethora of financial and auditing services for different kinds of institutions and companies. The aim of the article is first of all the description of expert auditors’ service...

Potential of bias correction for downscaling passive microwave and soil moisture data

Science.gov (United States)

Passive microwave satellites such as SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) or SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) observe brightness temperature (TB) and retrieve soil moisture at a spatial resolution greater than most hydrological processes. Bias correction is proposed as a simple method to disag...

Good thinking or gut feeling? Decision-making style and rationality in traders, bankers and financial non-experts

OpenAIRE

Thoma, Volker

2013-01-01

Research in cognitive psychology and behavioural finance has suggested that human decision-making is subject to the use of ‘heuristics’ – simple decision rules that produce systematic biases away from normative decision outcomes (Kahneman, 2003), and that even financial experts may be susceptible to heuristic thinking (e.g., Taleb, 2004).\\ud The current study investigated differences in decision-making style and the susceptibility to heuristics between financial traders, non-trading bank empl...

Biases in Visual, Auditory, and Audiovisual Perception of Space

Science.gov (United States)

Odegaard, Brian; Wozny, David R.; Shams, Ladan

2015-01-01

Localization of objects and events in the environment is critical for survival, as many perceptual and motor tasks rely on estimation of spatial location. Therefore, it seems reasonable to assume that spatial localizations should generally be accurate. Curiously, some previous studies have reported biases in visual and auditory localizations, but these studies have used small sample sizes and the results have been mixed. Therefore, it is not clear (1) if the reported biases in localization responses are real (or due to outliers, sampling bias, or other factors), and (2) whether these putative biases reflect a bias in sensory representations of space or a priori expectations (which may be due to the experimental setup, instructions, or distribution of stimuli). Here, to address these questions, a dataset of unprecedented size (obtained from 384 observers) was analyzed to examine presence, direction, and magnitude of sensory biases, and quantitative computational modeling was used to probe the underlying mechanism(s) driving these effects. Data revealed that, on average, observers were biased towards the center when localizing visual stimuli, and biased towards the periphery when localizing auditory stimuli. Moreover, quantitative analysis using a Bayesian Causal Inference framework suggests that while pre-existing spatial biases for central locations exert some influence, biases in the sensory representations of both visual and auditory space are necessary to fully explain the behavioral data. How are these opposing visual and auditory biases reconciled in conditions in which both auditory and visual stimuli are produced by a single event? Potentially, the bias in one modality could dominate, or the biases could interact/cancel out. The data revealed that when integration occurred in these conditions, the visual bias dominated, but the magnitude of this bias was reduced compared to unisensory conditions. Therefore, multisensory integration not only improves the

Biases in Visual, Auditory, and Audiovisual Perception of Space.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brian Odegaard

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Localization of objects and events in the environment is critical for survival, as many perceptual and motor tasks rely on estimation of spatial location. Therefore, it seems reasonable to assume that spatial localizations should generally be accurate. Curiously, some previous studies have reported biases in visual and auditory localizations, but these studies have used small sample sizes and the results have been mixed. Therefore, it is not clear (1 if the reported biases in localization responses are real (or due to outliers, sampling bias, or other factors, and (2 whether these putative biases reflect a bias in sensory representations of space or a priori expectations (which may be due to the experimental setup, instructions, or distribution of stimuli. Here, to address these questions, a dataset of unprecedented size (obtained from 384 observers was analyzed to examine presence, direction, and magnitude of sensory biases, and quantitative computational modeling was used to probe the underlying mechanism(s driving these effects. Data revealed that, on average, observers were biased towards the center when localizing visual stimuli, and biased towards the periphery when localizing auditory stimuli. Moreover, quantitative analysis using a Bayesian Causal Inference framework suggests that while pre-existing spatial biases for central locations exert some influence, biases in the sensory representations of both visual and auditory space are necessary to fully explain the behavioral data. How are these opposing visual and auditory biases reconciled in conditions in which both auditory and visual stimuli are produced by a single event? Potentially, the bias in one modality could dominate, or the biases could interact/cancel out. The data revealed that when integration occurred in these conditions, the visual bias dominated, but the magnitude of this bias was reduced compared to unisensory conditions. Therefore, multisensory integration not only

Hemispheric biases and the control of visuospatial attention: an ERP study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Banich Marie T

2005-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background We examined whether individual differences in hemispheric utilization can interact with the intrinsic attentional biases of the cerebral hemispheres. Evidence suggests that the hemispheres have competing biases to direct attention contralaterally, with the left hemisphere (LH having a stronger bias than the right hemisphere. There is also evidence that individuals have characteristic biases to utilize one hemisphere more than the other for processing information, which can induce a bias to direct attention to contralateral space. We predicted that LH-biased individuals would display a strong rightward attentional bias, which would create difficulty in selectively attending to target stimuli in the left visual field (LVF as compared to right in the performance of a bilateral flanker task. Results Consistent with our hypothesis, flanker interference effects were found on the N2c event-related brain potential and error rate for LH-biased individuals in the Attend-LVF condition. The error rate effect was correlated with the degree of hemispheric utilization bias for the LH-Bias group. Conclusion We conclude that hemispheric utilization bias can enhance a hemisphere's contralateral attentional bias, at least for individuals with a LH utilization bias. Hemispheric utilization bias may play an important and largely unrecognized role in visuospatial attention.

Automated planning target volume generation: an evaluation pitting a computer-based tool against human experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ketting, Case H.; Austin-Seymour, Mary; Kalet, Ira; Jacky, Jon; Kromhout-Schiro, Sharon; Hummel, Sharon; Unger, Jonathan; Fagan, Lawrence M.; Griffin, Tom

1997-01-01

Purpose: Software tools are seeing increased use in three-dimensional treatment planning. However, the development of these tools frequently omits careful evaluation before placing them in clinical use. This study demonstrates the application of a rigorous evaluation methodology using blinded peer review to an automated software tool that produces ICRU-50 planning target volumes (PTVs). Methods and Materials: Seven physicians from three different institutions involved in three-dimensional treatment planning participated in the evaluation. Four physicians drew partial PTVs on nine test cases, consisting of four nasopharynx and five lung primaries. Using the same information provided to the human experts, the computer tool generated PTVs for comparison. The remaining three physicians, designated evaluators, individually reviewed the PTVs for acceptability. To exclude bias, the evaluators were blinded to the source (human or computer) of the PTVs they reviewed. Their scorings of the PTVs were statistically examined to determine if the computer tool performed as well as the human experts. Results: The computer tool was as successful as the human experts in generating PTVs. Failures were primarily attributable to insufficient margins around the clinical target volume and to encroachment upon critical structures. In a qualitative analysis, the human and computer experts displayed similar types and distributions of errors. Conclusions: Rigorous evaluation of computer-based radiotherapy tools requires comparison to current practice and can reveal areas for improvement before the tool enters clinical practice

Web-based expert system for foundry pollution prevention

Science.gov (United States)

Moynihan, Gary P.

2004-02-01

Pollution prevention is a complex task. Many small foundries lack the in-house expertise to perform these tasks. Expert systems are a type of computer information system that incorporates artificial intelligence. As noted in the literature, they provide a means of automating specialized expertise. This approach may be further leveraged by implementing the expert system on the internet (or world-wide web). This will allow distribution of the expertise to a variety of geographically-dispersed foundries. The purpose of this research is to develop a prototype web-based expert system to support pollution prevention for the foundry industry. The prototype system identifies potential emissions for a specified process, and also provides recommendations for the prevention of these contaminants. The system is viewed as an initial step toward assisting the foundry industry in better meeting government pollution regulations, as well as improving operating efficiencies within these companies.

Expert system verification and validation for nuclear power industry applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naser, J.A.

1990-01-01

The potential for the use of expert systems in the nuclear power industry is widely recognized. The benefits of such systems include consistency of reasoning during off-normal situations when humans are under great stress, the reduction of times required to perform certain functions, the prevention of equipment failures through predictive diagnostics, and the retention of human expertise in performing specialized functions. The increased use of expert systems brings with it concerns about their reliability. Difficulties arising from software problems can affect plant safety, reliability, and availability. A joint project between EPRI and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is being initiated to develop a methodology for verification and validation of expert systems for nuclear power applications. This methodology will be tested on existing and developing expert systems. This effort will explore the applicability of conventional verification and validation methodologies to expert systems. The major area of concern will be certification of the knowledge base. This is expected to require new types of verification and validation techniques. A methodology for developing validation scenarios will also be studied

Mapping species distributions with MAXENT using a geographically biased sample of presence data: a performance assessment of methods for correcting sampling bias.

Science.gov (United States)

Fourcade, Yoan; Engler, Jan O; Rödder, Dennis; Secondi, Jean

2014-01-01

MAXENT is now a common species distribution modeling (SDM) tool used by conservation practitioners for predicting the distribution of a species from a set of records and environmental predictors. However, datasets of species occurrence used to train the model are often biased in the geographical space because of unequal sampling effort across the study area. This bias may be a source of strong inaccuracy in the resulting model and could lead to incorrect predictions. Although a number of sampling bias correction methods have been proposed, there is no consensual guideline to account for it. We compared here the performance of five methods of bias correction on three datasets of species occurrence: one "virtual" derived from a land cover map, and two actual datasets for a turtle (Chrysemys picta) and a salamander (Plethodon cylindraceus). We subjected these datasets to four types of sampling biases corresponding to potential types of empirical biases. We applied five correction methods to the biased samples and compared the outputs of distribution models to unbiased datasets to assess the overall correction performance of each method. The results revealed that the ability of methods to correct the initial sampling bias varied greatly depending on bias type, bias intensity and species. However, the simple systematic sampling of records consistently ranked among the best performing across the range of conditions tested, whereas other methods performed more poorly in most cases. The strong effect of initial conditions on correction performance highlights the need for further research to develop a step-by-step guideline to account for sampling bias. However, this method seems to be the most efficient in correcting sampling bias and should be advised in most cases.

A procedure for eliminating additive bias from cross-cultural survey data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scholderer, Joachim; Grunert, Klaus G.; Brunsø, Karen

2005-01-01

additive bias from cross-cultural data. The procedure involves four steps: (1) embed a potentially biased item in a factor-analytic measurement model, (2) test for the existence of additive bias between populations, (3) use the factor-analytic model to estimate the magnitude of the bias, and (4) replace......Measurement bias in cross-cultural surveys can seriously threaten the validity of hypothesis tests. Direct comparisons of means depend on the assumption that differences in observed variables reflect differences in the underlying constructs, and not an additive bias that may be caused by cultural...... differences in the understanding of item wording or response category labels. However, experience suggests that additive bias can be found more often than not. Based on the concept of partial measurement invariance (Byrne, Shavelson and Muthén 1989), the present paper develops a procedure for eliminating...

Disruption avoidance in the SINP-Tokamak by means of electrode-biasing at the plasma edge

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Basu, Debjyoti [Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics, 1/AF-Bidhannagar, Kolkata 700064, WB (India); Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares-UNAM, Mexico D.F. 04510 (Mexico); Pal, Rabindranath [Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics, 1/AF-Bidhannagar, Kolkata 700064, WB (India); Martinell, Julio J. [Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares-UNAM, Mexico D.F. 04510 (Mexico); Ghosh, Joydeep; Chattopadhyay, Prabal K. [Institute for Plasma Research, Gandhinagar (India)

2013-05-15

Control of plasma disruption by a biased edge electrode is reported in SINP-Tokamak. The features that characterize a plasma disruption are reduced with increasing bias potential. The disruption can be completely suppressed with the concomitant stabilization of observed MHD modes that are allegedly precursors of the disruption. An m = 3/n = 1 tearing mode, which apparently causes disruption can be stabilized when a negative biasing potential is applied near the edge. These changes in the disruptive behavior with edge biasing are hypothesized to be due to changes in the current density profile.

Disruption avoidance in the SINP-Tokamak by means of electrode-biasing at the plasma edge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basu, Debjyoti; Pal, Rabindranath; Martinell, Julio J.; Ghosh, Joydeep; Chattopadhyay, Prabal K.

2013-01-01

Control of plasma disruption by a biased edge electrode is reported in SINP-Tokamak. The features that characterize a plasma disruption are reduced with increasing bias potential. The disruption can be completely suppressed with the concomitant stabilization of observed MHD modes that are allegedly precursors of the disruption. An m = 3/n = 1 tearing mode, which apparently causes disruption can be stabilized when a negative biasing potential is applied near the edge. These changes in the disruptive behavior with edge biasing are hypothesized to be due to changes in the current density profile

Fuzzy Expert System for Heart Attack Diagnosis

Science.gov (United States)

Hassan, Norlida; Arbaiy, Nureize; Shah, Noor Aziyan Ahmad; Afizah Afif@Afip, Zehan

2017-08-01

Heart attack is one of the serious illnesses and reported as the main killer disease. Early prevention is significant to reduce the risk of having the disease. The prevention efforts can be strengthen through awareness and education about risk factor and healthy lifestyle. Therefore the knowledge dissemination is needed to play role in order to distribute and educate public in health care management and disease prevention. Since the knowledge dissemination in medical is important, there is a need to develop a knowledge based system that can emulate human intelligence to assist decision making process. Thereby, this study utilized hybrid artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to develop a Fuzzy Expert System for Diagnosing Heart Attack Disease (HAD). This system integrates fuzzy logic with expert system, which helps the medical practitioner and people to predict the risk and as well as diagnosing heart attack based on given symptom. The development of HAD is expected not only providing expert knowledge but potentially become one of learning resources to help citizens to develop awareness about heart-healthy lifestyle.

Embedded expert system for space shuttle main engine maintenance

Science.gov (United States)

Pooley, J.; Thompson, W.; Homsley, T.; Teoh, W.; Jones, J.; Lewallen, P.

1987-01-01

The SPARTA Embedded Expert System (SEES) is an intelligent health monitoring system that directs analysis by placing confidence factors on possible engine status and then recommends a course of action to an engineer or engine controller. The technique can prevent catastropic failures or costly rocket engine down time because of false alarms. Further, the SEES has potential as an on-board flight monitor for reusable rocket engine systems. The SEES methodology synergistically integrates vibration analysis, pattern recognition and communications theory techniques with an artificial intelligence technique - the Embedded Expert System (EES).

On the Borders of Harmful and Helpful Beauty Biases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Agthe

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Research with European Caucasian samples demonstrates that attractiveness-based biases in social evaluation depend on the constellation of the sex of the evaluator and the sex of the target: Whereas people generally show positive biases toward attractive opposite-sex persons, they show less positive or even negative biases toward attractive same-sex persons. By examining these biases both within and between different ethnicities, the current studies provide new evidence for both the generalizability and the specificity of these attractiveness-based social perception biases. Examining within-ethnicity effects, Study 1 is the first to demonstrate that samples from diverse ethnic backgrounds parallel the finding of European Caucasian samples: The advantageous or adverse effects of attractiveness depend on the gender constellation of the evaluator and the evaluated person. Examining between-ethnicity effects, Study 2 found that these attractiveness-based biases emerge almost exclusively toward targets of the evaluator’s own ethnic background; these biases were reduced or eliminated for cross-ethnicity evaluations and interaction intentions. We discuss these findings in light of evolutionary principles and reflect on potential interactions between culture and evolved cognitive mechanisms.

Experts in Fast-Ball Sports Reduce Anticipation Timing Cost by Developing Inhibitory Control

Science.gov (United States)

Nakamoto, Hiroki; Mori, Shiro

2012-01-01

The present study was conducted to examine the relationship between expertise in movement correction and rate of movement reprogramming within limited time periods, and to clarify the specific cognitive processes regarding superior reprogramming ability in experts. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded in baseball experts (n = 7) and…

An Accurate and Impartial Expert Assignment Method for Scientific Project Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingliang Yue

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: This paper proposes an expert assignment method for scientific project review that considers both accuracy and impartiality. As impartial and accurate peer review is extremely important to ensure the quality and feasibility of scientific projects, enhanced methods for managing the process are needed. Design/methodology/approach: To ensure both accuracy and impartiality, we design four criteria, the reviewers’ fitness degree, research intensity, academic association, and potential conflict of interest, to express the characteristics of an appropriate peer review expert. We first formalize the expert assignment problem as an optimization problem based on the designed criteria, and then propose a randomized algorithm to solve the expert assignment problem of identifying reviewer adequacy. Findings: Simulation results show that the proposed method is quite accurate and impartial during expert assignment. Research limitations: Although the criteria used in this paper can properly show the characteristics of a good and appropriate peer review expert, more criteria/conditions can be included in the proposed scheme to further enhance accuracy and impartiality of the expert assignment. Practical implications: The proposed method can help project funding agencies (e.g. the National Natural Science Foundation of China find better experts for project peer review. Originality/value: To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first publication that proposes an algorithm that applies an impartial approach to the project review expert assignment process. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Effect of electro-acupuncture intervention on cognition attention bias in heroin addiction abstinence-a dot-probe-based event-related potential study.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Ying-Ping; Liu, Hao; Xu, Ping; Wang, Yan; Lu, Guang-Hua

2011-04-01

To study the changes of cognitive attention-related brain function in the heroin addicts before and after electro-acupuncture (EA) intervention for exploring the concerned neuro-mechanism of addictive relapse and the central action role of EA intervention. Adopting event-related potential (ERP) technique, the ERP at 64 electrode spots in 10 heroin addicts (test group) were recorded before and after EA intervention with dot-probe experimental form during implementing cognitive task on positive emotional clue (PEC), negative emotional clues (NEC), and heroin-related clue (HRC). The P200 amplitude components on the selected observation points (Fz, Cz, and Pz) were analyzed and compared with those obtained from 10 healthy subjects as the control. Before EA, the ERP of attention on HRC in the test group was higher than that on PEC and NEC (Pattention on HRC at Cz and Pz was significantly lowered (P PEC > HRC, but in the control group, it showed PEC > HRC at all three observation points and PEC > NEC at Pz. Heroin addicts show attention bias to HRC, which could be significantly reduced by EA intervention, illustrating that EA could effectively inhibit the attention bias to heroin and so might have potential for lowering the relapse rate.

Advanced Biasing Experiments on the C-2 Field-Reversed Configuration Device

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Matthew; Korepanov, Sergey; Garate, Eusebio; Yang, Xiaokang; Gota, Hiroshi; Douglass, Jon; Allfrey, Ian; Valentine, Travis; Uchizono, Nolan; TAE Team

2014-10-01

The C-2 experiment seeks to study the evolution, heating and sustainment effects of neutral beam injection on field-reversed configuration (FRC) plasmas. Recently, substantial improvements in plasma performance were achieved through the application of edge biasing with coaxial plasma guns located in the divertors. Edge biasing provides rotation control that reduces instabilities and E × B shear that improves confinement. Typically, the plasma gun arcs are run at ~ 10 MW for the entire shot duration (~ 5 ms), which will become unsustainable as the plasma duration increases. We have conducted several advanced biasing experiments with reduced-average-power plasma gun operating modes and alternative biasing cathodes in an effort to develop an effective biasing scenario applicable to steady state FRC plasmas. Early results show that several techniques can potentially provide effective, long-duration edge biasing.

Elicitation and use of expert judgment in performance assessment for high-level radioactive waste repositories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonano, E.J.; Hora, S.C.; Keeney, R.L.; von Winterfeldt, D.

1990-05-01

This report presents the concept of formalizing the elicitation and use of expert judgment in the performance assessment of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repositories in deep geologic formations. The report begins with a discussion of characteristics (advantages and disadvantages) of formalizing expert judgment examples of previous uses of expert judgment in radioactive waste programs, criteria that can assist in deciding when to formalize expert judgment, and the relationship of formal use of expert judgment to data collection and modeling. The current state of the art with respect to the elicitation, use, and communication of formal expert judgment is presented. The report concludes with a discussion on potential applications of formal expert judgment in performance assessment of HLW repositories. 93 refs

Magnification bias as a novel probe for primordial magnetic fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Camera, S.; Fedeli, C.; Moscardini, L.

2014-01-01

In this paper we investigate magnetic fields generated in the early Universe. These fields are important candidates at explaining the origin of astrophysical magnetism observed in galaxies and galaxy clusters, whose genesis is still by and large unclear. Compared to the standard inflationary power spectrum, intermediate to small scales would experience further substantial matter clustering, were a cosmological magnetic field present prior to recombination. As a consequence, the bias and redshift distribution of galaxies would also be modified. Hitherto, primordial magnetic fields (PMFs) have been tested and constrained with a number of cosmological observables, e.g. the cosmic microwave background radiation, galaxy clustering and, more recently, weak gravitational lensing. Here, we explore the constraining potential of the density fluctuation bias induced by gravitational lensing magnification onto the galaxy-galaxy angular power spectrum. Such an effect is known as magnification bias. Compared to the usual galaxy clustering approach, magnification bias helps in lifting the pathological degeneracy present amongst power spectrum normalisation and galaxy bias. This is because magnification bias cross-correlates galaxy number density fluctuations of nearby objects with weak lensing distortions of high-redshift sources. Thus, it takes advantage of the gravitational deflection of light, which is insensitive to galaxy bias but powerful in constraining the density fluctuation amplitude. To scrutinise the potentiality of this method, we adopt a deep and wide-field spectroscopic galaxy survey. We show that magnification bias does contain important information on primordial magnetism, which will be useful in combination with galaxy clustering and shear. We find we shall be able to rule out at 95.4% CL amplitudes of PMFs larger than 5 × 10 −4 nG for values of the PMF power spectral index n B ∼ 0

Gender anomalies in stated preference surveys – are biases really gender dependent?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ladenburg, Jacob; Olsen, Søren Bøye

2010-01-01

The potential for a number of common but severe biases in stated preference method surveys being gender dependent has been largely overlooked in the literature. In this paper we summarize results from three Choice Experiment studies that find evidence in favor of gender differences in vulnerability...... set up a novel theoretical model, which provides an explanation for gender specific susceptibility to biases. We conclude that biases can indeed be gender dependent. Hence, researchers should not simply disregard potential gender differences, but rather take them into account and examine the extent...... of them when performing surveys. Finally, we give suggestions for future research in this area....

Perceptive biases in major depressive episode.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marine Naudin

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Alterations in emotional processing occur during a major depressive episode (MDE, and olfaction and facial expressions have implications in emotional and social interactions. To gain a better understanding of these processes, we characterized the perceptive sensorial biases, potential links, and potential remission after antidepressant treatment of MDE. METHODS: We recruited 22 patients with acute MDE, both before and after three months of antidepressant treatment, and 41 healthy volunteers matched by age and smoking status. The participants underwent a clinical assessment (Mini International Neuropsychiatry Interview, Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, Physical and Social Anhedonia scales, Pleasure-Displeasure Scale, an olfactory evaluation (hedonic aspect, familiarity and emotional impact of odors, and a computerized Facial Affect Recognition task. RESULTS: MDE was associated with an olfactory bias concerning hedonic and emotional aspects, including negative olfactory alliesthesia (unpleasant odorants perceived as more unpleasant, facial emotion expression recognition (happy facial expressions, and in part olfactory anhedonia (pleasant odorants perceived as less pleasant. In addition, the results revealed that these impairments represent state markers of MDE, suggesting that the patients recovered the same sensory processing as healthy subjects after antidepressant treatment. DISCUSSION: This study demonstrated that MDE is associated with negative biases toward olfactory perception and the recognition of facial emotional expressions. The link between these two sensory parameters suggests common underlying processes.

Nonlinear vs. linear biasing in Trp-cage folding simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Spiwok, Vojtěch, E-mail: spiwokv@vscht.cz; Oborský, Pavel; Králová, Blanka [Department of Biochemistry and Microbiology, University of Chemistry and Technology, Prague, Technická 3, Prague 6 166 28 (Czech Republic); Pazúriková, Jana [Institute of Computer Science, Masaryk University, Botanická 554/68a, 602 00 Brno (Czech Republic); Křenek, Aleš [Institute of Computer Science, Masaryk University, Botanická 554/68a, 602 00 Brno (Czech Republic); Center CERIT-SC, Masaryk Univerzity, Šumavská 416/15, 602 00 Brno (Czech Republic)

2015-03-21

Biased simulations have great potential for the study of slow processes, including protein folding. Atomic motions in molecules are nonlinear, which suggests that simulations with enhanced sampling of collective motions traced by nonlinear dimensionality reduction methods may perform better than linear ones. In this study, we compare an unbiased folding simulation of the Trp-cage miniprotein with metadynamics simulations using both linear (principle component analysis) and nonlinear (Isomap) low dimensional embeddings as collective variables. Folding of the mini-protein was successfully simulated in 200 ns simulation with linear biasing and non-linear motion biasing. The folded state was correctly predicted as the free energy minimum in both simulations. We found that the advantage of linear motion biasing is that it can sample a larger conformational space, whereas the advantage of nonlinear motion biasing lies in slightly better resolution of the resulting free energy surface. In terms of sampling efficiency, both methods are comparable.

Assessing the Potential for Bias From Nonresponse to a Study Follow-up Interview: An Example From the Agricultural Health Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rinsky, Jessica L; Richardson, David B; Wing, Steve; Beard, John D; Alavanja, Michael; Beane Freeman, Laura E; Chen, Honglei; Henneberger, Paul K; Kamel, Freya; Sandler, Dale P; Hoppin, Jane A

2017-08-15

Prospective cohort studies are important tools for identifying causes of disease. However, these studies are susceptible to attrition. When information collected after enrollment is through interview or exam, attrition leads to missing information for nonrespondents. The Agricultural Health Study enrolled 52,394 farmers in 1993-1997 and collected additional information during subsequent interviews. Forty-six percent of enrolled farmers responded to the 2005-2010 interview; 7% of farmers died prior to the interview. We examined whether response was related to attributes measured at enrollment. To characterize potential bias from attrition, we evaluated differences in associations between smoking and incidence of 3 cancer types between the enrolled cohort and the subcohort of 2005-2010 respondents, using cancer registry information. In the subcohort we evaluated the ability of inverse probability weighting (IPW) to reduce bias. Response was related to age, state, race/ethnicity, education, marital status, smoking, and alcohol consumption. When exposure and outcome were associated and case response was differential by exposure, some bias was observed; IPW conditional on exposure and covariates failed to correct estimates. When response was nondifferential, subcohort and full-cohort estimates were similar, making IPW unnecessary. This example provides a demonstration of investigating the influence of attrition in cohort studies using information that has been self-reported after enrollment. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Recognizing Our Cultural Biases as Counsellor Supervisors: A Reflective Learning Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Brinson, Jesse A.

2004-01-01

This article encourages supervisors, in general, and counsellor supervisors, in particular, to engage in reflective learning as a way to identify their cultural biases. Awareness of counsellor bias has been addressed by ethical standards outlined for professional helpers. This article presents reflective learning as a potentially useful strategy…

EXPERT SYSTEMS - DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE TOOL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

NAN Anca-Petruţa

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Because of the fact that specialty agricultural assistance is not always available when the farmers need it, we identified expert systems as a strong instrument with an extended potential in agriculture. This started to grow in scale recently, including all socially-economic activity fields, having the role of collecting data regarding different aspects from human experts with the purpose of assisting the user in the necessary steps for solving problems, at the performance level of the expert, making his acquired knowledge and experience available. We opted for a general presentation of the expert systems as well as their necessity, because, the solution to develop the agricultural system can come from artificial intelligence by implementing the expert systems in the field of agricultural insurance, promoting existing insurance products, farmers finding options in depending on their necessities and possibilities. The objective of this article consists of collecting data about different aspects about specific areas of interest of agricultural insurance, preparing the database, a conceptual presentation of a pilot version which will become constantly richer depending on the answers received from agricultural producers, with the clearest exposure of knowledgebase possible. We can justify picking this theme with the fact that even while agricultural insurance plays a very important role in agricultural development, the registered result got from them are modest, reason why solutions need to be found in the scope of developing the agricultural sector. The importance of this consists in the proposal of an immediate viable solution to correspond with the current necessities of agricultural producers and in the proposal of an innovative solution, namely the implementation of expert system in agricultural insurance as a way of promoting insurance products. Our research, even though it treats the subject at an conceptual level, it wants to undertake an

An expert system for sensor data validation and malfunction detection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hashemi, S.; Hajek, B.K.; Miller, D.W.

1987-01-01

Nuclear power plant operation and monitoring in general is a complex task which requires a large number of sensors, alarms and displays. At any instant in time, the operator is required to make a judgment about the state of the plant and to react accordingly. During abnormal situations, operators are further burdened with time constraints. The possibility of an undetected faulty instrumentation line, adds to the complexity of operators' reasoning tasks. Recent work at The Ohio State University Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence Research (LAIR) and the nuclear engineering program has concentrated on the problem of diagnostic expert systems performance and their applicability to the nuclear power plant domain. The authors have also been concerned about the diagnostic expert systems performance when using potentially invalid sensor data. Because of this research, they have developed an expert system that can perform diagnostic problem solving despite the existence of some conflicting data in the domain. This work has resulted in enhancement of a programming tool, CSRL, that allows domain experts to create a diagnostic system that will be to some degree, tolerant of bad data while performing diagnosis. This expert system is described here

Adversarial Allegiance: The Devil is in the Evidence Details, Not Just on the Witness Stand

Science.gov (United States)

McAuliff, Bradley D.; Arter, Jeana L.

2016-01-01

This study examined the potential influence of adversarial allegiance on expert testimony in a simulated child sexual abuse case. A national sample of 100 witness suggestibility experts reviewed a police interview of an alleged 5 year-old female victim. Retaining party (prosecution, defense) and interview suggestibility (low, high) varied across experts. Experts were very willing to testify, but more so for the prosecution than the defense when interview suggestibility was low and vice versa when interview suggestibility was high. Experts' anticipated testimony focused more on pro-defense aspects of the police interview and child's memory overall (negativity bias), but favored retaining party only when interview suggestibility was low. Unlike prosecution-retained experts who shifted their focus from pro-defense aspects of the case in the high suggestibility interview to pro-prosecution aspects in the low suggestibility interview, defense experts did not. Blind raters' perceptions of expert focus mirrored those findings. Despite an initial bias toward retaining party, experts' evaluations of child victim accuracy and interview quality were lower in the high versus low interview suggestibility condition only. Our data suggest that adversarial allegiance exists, that it can (but not always) influence how experts process evidence, and that it may be more likely in cases involving evidence that is not blatantly flawed. Defense experts may evaluate this type of evidence more negatively than prosecution experts due to negativity bias and positive testing strategies associated with confirmation bias. PMID:27243362

Adversarial allegiance: The devil is in the evidence details, not just on the witness stand.

Science.gov (United States)

McAuliff, Bradley D; Arter, Jeana L

2016-10-01

This study examined the potential influence of adversarial allegiance on expert testimony in a simulated child sexual abuse case. A national sample of 100 witness suggestibility experts reviewed a police interview of an alleged 5-year-old female victim. Retaining party (prosecution, defense) and interview suggestibility (low, high) varied across experts. Experts were very willing to testify, but more so for the prosecution than the defense when interview suggestibility was low and vice versa when interview suggestibility was high. Experts' anticipated testimony focused more on prodefense aspects of the police interview and child's memory overall (negativity bias), but favored retaining party only when interview suggestibility was low. Prosecution-retained experts shifted their focus from prodefense aspects of the case in the high suggestibility interview to proprosecution aspects in the low suggestibility interview; defense experts did not. Blind raters' perceptions of expert focus mirrored those findings. Despite an initial bias toward retaining party, experts' evaluations of child victim accuracy and police interview quality were lower in the high versus low interview suggestibility condition only. Our data suggest that adversarial allegiance exists, that it can (but not always) influence how experts process evidence, and that it may be more likely in cases involving evidence that is not blatantly flawed. Defense experts may evaluate this type of evidence more negatively than prosecution experts because of negativity bias and positive testing strategies associated with confirmation bias. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Adaptive capture of expert knowledge

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barrett, C.L.; Jones, R.D. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Hand, Un Kyong [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)]|[US Navy (United States)

1995-05-01

A method is introduced that can directly acquire knowledge-engineered, rule-based logic in an adaptive network. This adaptive representation of the rule system can then replace the rule system in simulated intelligent agents and thereby permit further performance-based adaptation of the rule system. The approach described provides both weight-fitting network adaptation and potentially powerful rule mutation and selection mechanisms. Nonlinear terms are generated implicitly in the mutation process through the emergent interaction of multiple linear terms. By this method it is possible to acquire nonlinear relations that exist in the training data without addition of hidden layers or imposition of explicit nonlinear terms in the network. We smoothed and captured a set of expert rules with an adaptive network. The motivation for this was to (1) realize a speed advantage over traditional rule-based simulations; (2) have variability in the intelligent objects not possible by rule-based systems but provided by adaptive systems: and (3) maintain the understandability of rule-based simulations. A set of binary rules was smoothed and converted into a simple set of arithmetic statements, where continuous, non-binary rules are permitted. A neural network, called the expert network, was developed to capture this rule set, which it was able to do with zero error. The expert network is also capable of learning a nonmonotonic term without a hidden layer. The trained network in feedforward operation is fast running, compact, and traceable to the rule base.

Cognitive Bias in the Verification and Validation of Space Flight Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Larson, Steve

2012-01-01

Cognitive bias is generally recognized as playing a significant role in virtually all domains of human decision making. Insight into this role is informally built into many of the system engineering practices employed in the aerospace industry. The review process, for example, typically has features that help to counteract the effect of bias. This paper presents a discussion of how commonly recognized biases may affect the verification and validation process. Verifying and validating a system is arguably more challenging than development, both technically and cognitively. Whereas there may be a relatively limited number of options available for the design of a particular aspect of a system, there is a virtually unlimited number of potential verification scenarios that may be explored. The probability of any particular scenario occurring in operations is typically very difficult to estimate, which increases reliance on judgment that may be affected by bias. Implementing a verification activity often presents technical challenges that, if they can be overcome at all, often result in a departure from actual flight conditions (e.g., 1-g testing, simulation, time compression, artificial fault injection) that may raise additional questions about the meaningfulness of the results, and create opportunities for the introduction of additional biases. In addition to mitigating the biases it can introduce directly, the verification and validation process must also overcome the cumulative effect of biases introduced during all previous stages of development. A variety of cognitive biases will be described, with research results for illustration. A handful of case studies will be presented that show how cognitive bias may have affected the verification and validation process on recent JPL flight projects, identify areas of strength and weakness, and identify potential changes or additions to commonly used techniques that could provide a more robust verification and validation of

Application of expert systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Basden, A

1983-11-01

This article seeks to bring together a number of issues relevant to the application of expert systems by discussing their advantages and limitations, their roles and benefits, and the influence that real-life applications might have on the design of expert systems software. Part of the expert systems strategy of one major chemical company is outlined. Because it was in constructing one particular expert system that many of these issues became important this system is described briefly at the start of the paper and used to illustrate much of the later discussion. It is of the plausible-inference type and has application in the field of materials engineering. 22 references.

Expert Elicitation Methods in Quantifying the Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance from Offshore Renewable Energy Developments.

Science.gov (United States)

Donovan, Carl; Harwood, John; King, Stephanie; Booth, Cormac; Caneco, Bruno; Walker, Cameron

2016-01-01

There are many developments for offshore renewable energy around the United Kingdom whose installation typically produces large amounts of far-reaching noise, potentially disturbing many marine mammals. The potential to affect the favorable conservation status of many species means extensive environmental impact assessment requirements for the licensing of such installation activities. Quantification of such complex risk problems is difficult and much of the key information is not readily available. Expert elicitation methods can be employed in such pressing cases. We describe the methodology used in an expert elicitation study conducted in the United Kingdom for combining expert opinions based on statistical distributions and copula-like methods.

Interwell radiative recombination in the presence of random potential fluctuations in GaAs/AlGaAs biased double quantum wells

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Timofeev, V.B.; Larionov, A.V.; Ioselevich, A.S.

1998-01-01

narrowing with temperature increase from 4.5 to 30 K. A theoretical model is presented which explains the observed narrowing in terms of lateral thermally activated tunneling of spatially separated e-h pairs localized by random potential fluctuations in the quantum wells. (C) 1998 American Institute......The interwell radiative recombination from biased double quantum wells (DQW) in pin GaAs/AlGaAs heterostructures is investigated at different temperatures and external electrical fields. The luminescence line of interwell recombination of spatially separated electron-hole pairs exhibits systematic...

Counselor Expert System | Debretsion | Zede Journal

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An expert system plays an important role on alleviating primarily shortage of experts in a specific area of interest. With the help of an expert system, personnel with little expertise can solve problems that require expert knowledge. In this paper all major aspects of an expert system development have been presented.

Perception Gaps on Food Additives among Various Groups in Korea: Food Experts, Teachers, Nutrition Teachers, Nongovernmental Organization Members, and General Consumers.

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Hee-Jin; Kim, Suna; Lee, Gunyoung; Lim, Ho Soo; Yun, Sang Soon; Kim, Jeong-Weon

2017-06-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the perceptions and information needs of food experts, teachers, nutrition teachers, members of nongovernmental organizations, and general consumers concerning food additives. Questions in a survey format included perceptions, information needs, and preferred communication channels. The survey was conducted both off-line and on-line via e-mail and Google Drive in March 2015. The results indicated that most Korean consumers are concerned about the safety of using food additives in processed foods and do not recognize these additives as safe and useful materials as part of a modern diet. We also identified perception gaps among different groups regarding food additives. Nutrition teachers and members of nongovernmental organizations in Korea appeared to have a biased perception of food additives, which may cause general consumers to have a negative perception of food additives. The group of food experts did not have this bias. Governmental institutions must overcome the low confidence levels of various groups as an information provider about food additives. Based on the findings in this study, it will be possible to develop a strategy for risk communication about food additives for each group.

Scanning of speechless comics changes spatial biases in mental model construction.

Science.gov (United States)

Román, Antonio; Flumini, Andrea; Santiago, Julio

2018-08-05

The mental representation of both time and number shows lateral spatial biases, which can be affected by habitual reading and writing direction. However, this effect is in place before children begin to read. One potential early cause is the experiences of looking at picture books together with a carer, as those images also follow the directionality of the script. What is the underlying mechanism for this effect? In the present study, we test the possibility that such experiences induce spatial biases in mental model construction, a mechanism which is a good candidate to induce the biases observed with numbers and times. We presented a speechless comic in either standard (left-to-right) or mirror-reversed (right-to-left) form to adult Spanish participants. We then asked them to draw the scene depicted by sentences like 'the square is between the cross and the circle'. The position of the lateral objects in these drawings reveals the spatial biases at work when building mental models in working memory. Under conditions of highly consistent directionality, the mirror comic changed pre-existing lateral biases. Processes of mental model construction in working memory stand as a potential mechanism for the generation of spatial biases for time and number.This article is part of the theme issue 'Varieties of abstract concepts: development, use and representation in the brain'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Expert assessments of retrofitting coal-fired power plants with carbon dioxide capture technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, Timothy S.; Patino-Echeverri, Dalia; Johnson, Timothy L.

2011-01-01

A set of 13 US based experts in post-combustion and oxy-fuel combustion CO 2 capture systems responded to an extensive questionnaire asking their views on the present status and future expected performance and costs for amine-based, chilled ammonia, and oxy-combustion retrofits of coal-fired power plants. This paper presents the experts' responses for technology maturity, ideal plant characteristics for early adopters, and the extent to which R and D and deployment incentives will impact costs. It also presents the best estimates and 95% confidence limits of the energy penalties associated with amine-based systems. The results show a general consensus that amine-based systems are closer to commercial application, but potential for improving performance and lowering costs is limited; chilled ammonia and oxy-combustion offer greater potential for cost reductions, but not without greater uncertainty regarding scale and technical feasibility. - Highlights: → Study presents experts' views on CCS retrofit costs and performance. → Experts commented on amine-based systems, chilled ammonia, and oxy-fuel combustion. → Estimates of future energy penalty show uncertainty for the three technologies. → These estimates under an aggressive RD and D policy scenario narrow significantly. → The experts' judgments support the need for enhanced RD and D for post-combustion CCS.

Expert assessments of retrofitting coal-fired power plants with carbon dioxide capture technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chung, Timothy S. [Eastern Research Group, Inc., 110 Hartwell Avenue 1, Lexington, MA 02421-3134l (United States); Patino-Echeverri, Dalia, E-mail: dalia.patino@duke.edu [Nicholas School of the Environment, Box 90328, Duke University, Durham NC 27708 (United States); Johnson, Timothy L. [Nicholas School of the Environment, Box 90328, Duke University, Durham NC 27708 (United States)

2011-09-15

A set of 13 US based experts in post-combustion and oxy-fuel combustion CO{sub 2} capture systems responded to an extensive questionnaire asking their views on the present status and future expected performance and costs for amine-based, chilled ammonia, and oxy-combustion retrofits of coal-fired power plants. This paper presents the experts' responses for technology maturity, ideal plant characteristics for early adopters, and the extent to which R and D and deployment incentives will impact costs. It also presents the best estimates and 95% confidence limits of the energy penalties associated with amine-based systems. The results show a general consensus that amine-based systems are closer to commercial application, but potential for improving performance and lowering costs is limited; chilled ammonia and oxy-combustion offer greater potential for cost reductions, but not without greater uncertainty regarding scale and technical feasibility. - Highlights: > Study presents experts' views on CCS retrofit costs and performance. > Experts commented on amine-based systems, chilled ammonia, and oxy-fuel combustion. > Estimates of future energy penalty show uncertainty for the three technologies. > These estimates under an aggressive RD and D policy scenario narrow significantly. > The experts' judgments support the need for enhanced RD and D for post-combustion CCS.

Expert Panel Elicitation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jensen, M. [Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Waste Management and Environmental Protection; Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

2005-09-15

Scientists are now frequently in a situation where data cannot be easily assessed, since they may have conflicting or uncertain sources. While expert judgment reflects private choices, it is possible both reduce the personal aspect as well as in crease confidence in the judgments by using formal protocols for choice and elicitation of experts. A full-scale elicitation made on seismicity following glaciation, now in its late phase and presented here in a preliminary form, illustrates the value of the technique and some essential issues in connection with the decision to launch such a project. The results show an unusual low variation between the experts.

Consumer versus expert hazard identification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hagemann, Kit S.; Scholderer, Joachim

2007-01-01

Novel foods have been the object of intense public debate in recent years. Despite efforts to communicate the outcomes of risk assessments to consumers, public confidence in the management of potential risks has been low. Various reasons behind this have been identified, chiefly a disagreement...... between technical experts and consumers over the nature of the hazards on which risk assessments should focus, and perceptions of insufficient openness about uncertainties in risk assessment. Whilst previous research has almost exclusively focused on genetically modified foods, the present paper...

The potential for expert system support in solving the pressurized water reactor fuel shuffling problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rothleder, B.M.; Poetschat, G.R.; Faught, W.S.; Eich, V.J.

1988-01-01

The fuel shuffling problem is posed by the need to reposition partially burned assemblies to achieve minimum X-Y pin power peaks reload cycles of pressurized water reactors. This problem is a classic artificial intelligence (AI) problem and is highly suitable for AI expert system solution assistance, in contrast to the conventional solution, which ultimately depends solely on trial and error. Such a fuel shuffling assistant would significantly reduce engineering and computer execution time for conventional loading patterns and, much more importantly, even more significantly for low-leakage loading patterns. A successful hardware/software demonstrator has been introduced, paving the way for development of a broadly expert system program. Such a program, upon incorporating the recently developed technique perverse depletion, would provide a directed path for solving the low-leakage problem

Journal bias or author bias?

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Ian

2016-01-01

I read with interest the comment by Mark Wilson in the Indian Journal of Medical Ethics regarding bias and conflicts of interest in medical journals. Wilson targets one journal (the New England Journal of Medicine: NEJM) and one particular "scandal" to make his point that journals' decisions on publication are biased by commercial conflicts of interest (CoIs). It is interesting that he chooses the NEJM which, by his own admission, had one of the strictest CoI policies and had published widely on this topic. The feeling is that if the NEJM can be guilty, they can all be guilty.

Sleep-spindle detection: crowdsourcing and evaluating performance of experts, non-experts and automated methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Warby, Simon C.; Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter

2014-01-01

to crowdsource spindle identification by human experts and non-experts, and we compared their performance with that of automated detection algorithms in data from middle- to older-aged subjects from the general population. We also refined methods for forming group consensus and evaluating the performance...... of event detectors in physiological data such as electroencephalographic recordings from polysomnography. Compared to the expert group consensus gold standard, the highest performance was by individual experts and the non-expert group consensus, followed by automated spindle detectors. This analysis showed...... that crowdsourcing the scoring of sleep data is an efficient method to collect large data sets, even for difficult tasks such as spindle identification. Further refinements to spindle detection algorithms are needed for middle- to older-aged subjects....

Surgical experts: born or made?

Science.gov (United States)

Sadideen, Hazim; Alvand, Abtin; Saadeddin, Munir; Kneebone, Roger

2013-01-01

The concept of surgical expertise and the processes involved in its development are topical, and there is a constant drive to identify reliable measures of expert performance in surgery. This review explores the notion of whether surgical experts are "born" or "made", with reference to educational theory and pertinent literature. Peer-reviewed publications, books, and online resources on surgical education, expertise and training were reviewed. Important themes and aspects of expertise acquisition were identified in order to better understand the concept of a surgical expert. The definition of surgical expertise and several important aspects of its development are highlighted. Innate talent plays an important role, but is insufficient on its own to produce a surgical expert. Multiple theories that explore motor skill acquisition and memory are relevant, and Ericsson's theory of the development of competence followed by deliberate self-practice has been especially influential. Psychomotor and non-technical skills are necessary for progression in the current climate in light of our training curricula; surgical experts are adaptive experts who excel in these. The literature suggests that surgical expertise is reached through practice; surgical experts are made, not born. A deeper understanding of the nature of expert performance and its development will ensure that surgical education training programmes are of the highest possible quality. Surgical educators should aim to develop an expertise-based approach, with expert performance as the benchmark. Copyright © 2013 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Law for nuclear experts only

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wagner, H [Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.)

1980-02-01

The Federal Ministry of the Interior is preparing an ordinance on expert consultants under the Atomic Energy Act which, among other topics, is to include legal norms for the criteria to be met by experts in terms of non-partisanship, training, capabilities, technical equipment and cooperation in expert organizations of members of various scientific and technical disciplines. A summary of general criteria relating to the qualification, selection and status of experts called in by the legislative and executive branches and by courts of law, which could be organized as a series of guidelines without any original qualities of legal norms, could be recommended in view of the increasing quantitative and qualitative importance of experts. However, passing an ordinance merely fixing and putting into concrete terms the image of an 'expert under the Atomic Energy Act' is intolerable, because the status of scientific and technical experts by far extends beyond the field of nuclear law in our industrial society characterized by a far reaching division of labor. Weak points in the organization of expert services are not confined to technology or nuclear power. Separate rules establishing legal norms are not convincing also for reasons of technology policy and legal policy as well as for those of social psychology and practice.

A Short note on Accent–bias, Social Identity and Ethnocentrism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rahul Chakraborty

2017-08-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses the interrelations among accent-based biases, social identity and ethnocentrism. Construction of social identity creates a set of ethnocentric values within a person, which indirectly or directly plays a pivotal role in generating accent related biases. Starting with Tajfel’s (1959 social identity theory and then the discussion of ethnocentrism, accent related biases have a long documented origin, development and consequences. People construct their social identity based on numerous variables and then their in-group and out-group memberships are established. Ethnocentrism, as a variable, influences listeners’ accent perception and subsequent judgment regarding their perceived accent. The degree of ethnocentrism is related to speakers’ potential accent biases. As legal safeguard against accent related biases is absent, active resistance and awareness-initiation are expected from speech language pathologists and the concerned community in general. Role of training institutions is discussed.

Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

Science.gov (United States)

de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

1988-01-01

Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

Evaluation of bias-correction methods for ensemble streamflow volume forecasts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Hashino

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Ensemble prediction systems are used operationally to make probabilistic streamflow forecasts for seasonal time scales. However, hydrological models used for ensemble streamflow prediction often have simulation biases that degrade forecast quality and limit the operational usefulness of the forecasts. This study evaluates three bias-correction methods for ensemble streamflow volume forecasts. All three adjust the ensemble traces using a transformation derived with simulated and observed flows from a historical simulation. The quality of probabilistic forecasts issued when using the three bias-correction methods is evaluated using a distributions-oriented verification approach. Comparisons are made of retrospective forecasts of monthly flow volumes for a north-central United States basin (Des Moines River, Iowa, issued sequentially for each month over a 48-year record. The results show that all three bias-correction methods significantly improve forecast quality by eliminating unconditional biases and enhancing the potential skill. Still, subtle differences in the attributes of the bias-corrected forecasts have important implications for their use in operational decision-making. Diagnostic verification distinguishes these attributes in a context meaningful for decision-making, providing criteria to choose among bias-correction methods with comparable skill.

Effects of Cognitive Bias Modification Training via Smartphones

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ranming Yang

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Background and Objectives: Negative cognitive biases have been linked to anxiety and mood problems. Accumulated data from laboratory studies show that positive and negative interpretation styles with accompanying changes in mood can be induced through cognitive bias modification (CBM paradigms. Despite the therapeutic potential of positive training effects, few studies have explored training paradigms administered via smartphones. The current study aimed to compare the effectiveness of three different types of training programmes (cognitive bias modification-attention, CBM-A; cognitive bias modification-interpretation, CBM-I; attention and interpretation modification, AIM administered via smart-phones by using a control condition (CC.Methods:Seventy-six undergraduate participants with high social anxiety (Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale, LSAS ≥ 30 were randomly assigned to four groups: CBM-A (n = 20, CBM-I (n = 20, AIM (n = 16, and CC (n = 20.Results: The results showed that the effects of CBM training, CBM-I training, or AIM training vs. CC for attention yielded no significant differences in dot-probe attention bias scores. The CBM-I group showed significantly less threat interpretation and more benign interpretation than the CC group on interpretation bias scores.Conclusions: The present results supported the feasibility of delivering CBM-I via smartphones, but the effectiveness of CBM-A and AIM training via smartphones was limited.

Expert system application for prioritizing preventive actions for shift work: shift expert.

Science.gov (United States)

Esen, Hatice; Hatipoğlu, Tuğçen; Cihan, Ahmet; Fiğlali, Nilgün

2017-09-19

Shift patterns, work hours, work arrangements and worker motivations have increasingly become key factors for job performance. The main objective of this article is to design an expert system that identifies the negative effects of shift work and prioritizes mitigation efforts according to their importance in preventing these negative effects. The proposed expert system will be referred to as the shift expert. A thorough literature review is conducted to determine the effects of shift work on workers. Our work indicates that shift work is linked to demographic variables, sleepiness and fatigue, health and well-being, and social and domestic conditions. These parameters constitute the sections of a questionnaire designed to focus on 26 important issues related to shift work. The shift expert is then constructed to provide prevention advice at the individual and organizational levels, and it prioritizes this advice using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model, which considers comparison matrices provided by users during the prioritization process. An empirical study of 61 workers working on three rotating shifts is performed. After administering the questionnaires, the collected data are analyzed statistically, and then the shift expert produces individual and organizational recommendations for these workers.

Beyond assembly bias: exploring secondary halo biases for cluster-size haloes

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, Yao-Yuan; Zentner, Andrew R.; Wechsler, Risa H.

2018-03-01

Secondary halo bias, commonly known as `assembly bias', is the dependence of halo clustering on a halo property other than mass. This prediction of the Λ Cold Dark Matter cosmology is essential to modelling the galaxy distribution to high precision and interpreting clustering measurements. As the name suggests, different manifestations of secondary halo bias have been thought to originate from halo assembly histories. We show conclusively that this is incorrect for cluster-size haloes. We present an up-to-date summary of secondary halo biases of high-mass haloes due to various halo properties including concentration, spin, several proxies of assembly history, and subhalo properties. While concentration, spin, and the abundance and radial distribution of subhaloes exhibit significant secondary biases, properties that directly quantify halo assembly history do not. In fact, the entire assembly histories of haloes in pairs are nearly identical to those of isolated haloes. In general, a global correlation between two halo properties does not predict whether or not these two properties exhibit similar secondary biases. For example, assembly history and concentration (or subhalo abundance) are correlated for both paired and isolated haloes, but follow slightly different conditional distributions in these two cases. This results in a secondary halo bias due to concentration (or subhalo abundance), despite the lack of assembly bias in the strict sense for cluster-size haloes. Due to this complexity, caution must be exercised in using any one halo property as a proxy to study the secondary bias due to another property.

Engaging the expert in public dialogue: Developing the role of performance assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Littleboy, Anna; Hodgkinson, David

2001-01-01

Participatory approaches to decision-making call for two-way dialogue with a wide range of stakeholders. In the United Kingdom, probabilistic performance assessments of a potential deep geological disposal facility have typically been undertaken by experts to meet regulations set by other experts. However, there is potential for performance assessments to fulfil the additional role of enabling dialogue with other stakeholder groups. This paper suggests developments in the focus and presentation of performance assessments to foster such dialogue. It reflects issues relevant to performance assessment that arise as waste management organisations consider the consequences of involving wider stakeholder groups in decision making about repository development

Engaging the expert in public dialogue: Developing the role of performance assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Littleboy, Anna [United Kingdom Nirex Ltd., Harwell (United Kingdom); Hodgkinson, David [Quintessa Ltd., Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom)

2001-07-01

Participatory approaches to decision-making call for two-way dialogue with a wide range of stakeholders. In the United Kingdom, probabilistic performance assessments of a potential deep geological disposal facility have typically been undertaken by experts to meet regulations set by other experts. However, there is potential for performance assessments to fulfil the additional role of enabling dialogue with other stakeholder groups. This paper suggests developments in the focus and presentation of performance assessments to foster such dialogue. It reflects issues relevant to performance assessment that arise as waste management organisations consider the consequences of involving wider stakeholder groups in decision making about repository development.

Zero bias thermally stimulated currents in synthetic diamond

Science.gov (United States)

Mori, R.; Miglio, S.; Bruzzi, M.; Bogani, F.; De Sio, A.; Pace, E.

2009-06-01

Zero bias thermally stimulated currents (ZBTSCs) have been observed in single crystal high pressure high temperature (HPHT) and polycrystalline chemical vapor deposited (pCVD) diamond films. The ZBTSC technique is characterized by an increased sensitivity with respect to a standard TSC analysis. Due to the absence of the thermally activated background current, new TSC peaks have been observed in both HPHT and pCVD diamond films, related to shallow activation energies usually obscured by the emission of the dominant impurities. The ZBTSC peaks are explained in terms of defect discharge in the nonequilibrium potential distribution created by a nonuniform traps filling at the metal-diamond junctions. The electric field due to the charged defects has been estimated in a quasizero bias TSC experiment by applying an external bias.

Hierarchical mixture of experts and diagnostic modeling approach to reduce hydrologic model structural uncertainty: STRUCTURAL UNCERTAINTY DIAGNOSTICS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moges, Edom [Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Washington State University, Richland Washington USA; Demissie, Yonas [Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Washington State University, Richland Washington USA; Li, Hong-Yi [Hydrology Group, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

2016-04-01

In most water resources applications, a single model structure might be inadequate to capture the dynamic multi-scale interactions among different hydrological processes. Calibrating single models for dynamic catchments, where multiple dominant processes exist, can result in displacement of errors from structure to parameters, which in turn leads to over-correction and biased predictions. An alternative to a single model structure is to develop local expert structures that are effective in representing the dominant components of the hydrologic process and adaptively integrate them based on an indicator variable. In this study, the Hierarchical Mixture of Experts (HME) framework is applied to integrate expert model structures representing the different components of the hydrologic process. Various signature diagnostic analyses are used to assess the presence of multiple dominant processes and the adequacy of a single model, as well as to identify the structures of the expert models. The approaches are applied for two distinct catchments, the Guadalupe River (Texas) and the French Broad River (North Carolina) from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX), using different structures of the HBV model. The results show that the HME approach has a better performance over the single model for the Guadalupe catchment, where multiple dominant processes are witnessed through diagnostic measures. Whereas, the diagnostics and aggregated performance measures prove that French Broad has a homogeneous catchment response, making the single model adequate to capture the response.

Effect of top gate potential on bias-stress for dual gate amorphous indium-gallium-zinc-oxide thin film transistor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chun, Minkyu; Um, Jae Gwang; Park, Min Sang; Chowdhury, Md Delwar Hossain; Jang, Jin, E-mail: jjang@khu.ac.kr [Advanced Display Research Center and Department of Information Display, Kyung Hee University, Seoul 02447 (Korea, Republic of)

2016-07-15

We report the abnormal behavior of the threshold voltage (V{sub TH}) shift under positive bias Temperature stress (PBTS) and negative bias temperature stress (NBTS) at top/bottom gate in dual gate amorphous indium-gallium-zinc-oxide (a-IGZO) thin-film transistors (TFTs). It is found that the PBTS at top gate shows negative transfer shift and NBTS shows positive transfer shift for both top and bottom gate sweep. The shift of bottom/top gate sweep is dominated by top gate bias (V{sub TG}), while bottom gate bias (V{sub BG}) is less effect than V{sub TG}. The X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) depth profile provides the evidence of In metal diffusion to the top SiO{sub 2}/a-IGZO and also the existence of large amount of In{sup +} under positive top gate bias around top interfaces, thus negative transfer shift is observed. On the other hand, the formation of OH{sup −} at top interfaces under the stress of negative top gate bias shows negative transfer shift. The domination of V{sub TG} both on bottom/top gate sweep after PBTS/NBTS is obviously occurred due to thin active layer.

Assessing implicit gender bias in Medical Student Performance Evaluations.

Science.gov (United States)

Axelson, Rick D; Solow, Catherine M; Ferguson, Kristi J; Cohen, Michael B

2010-09-01

For medical schools, the increasing presence of women makes it especially important that potential sources of gender bias be identified and removed from student evaluation methods. Our study looked for patterns of gender bias in adjective data used to inform our Medical Student Performance Evaluations (MSPEs). Multigroup Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was used to model the latent structure of the adjectives attributed to students (n = 657) and to test for systematic scoring errors by gender. Gender bias was evident in two areas: (a) women were more likely than comparable men to be described as ''compassionate,'' ''sensitive,'' and ''enthusiastic'' and (b) men were more likely than comparable women to be seen as ''quick learners.'' The gender gap in ''quick learner'' attribution grows with increasing student proficiency; men's rate of increase is over twice that of women's. Technical and nontechnical approaches for ameliorating the impact of gender bias on student recommendations are suggested.

Influence of the impurity-scattering on zero-bias conductance peak in ferromagnet/insulator/d-wave superconductor junctions

CERN Document Server

Yoshida, N; Itoh, H; Tanaka, Y; Inoue, J I; Kashiwaya, S

2003-01-01

Effects of impurity-scattering on a zero-bias conductance peak in ferromagnet/insulator/d-wave superconductor junctions are theoretically studied. The impurities are introduced through the random potential in ferromagnets near the junction interface. As in the case of normal-metal/insulator/d-wave superconductor junctions, the magnitude of zero-bias conductance peak decreases with increasing the degree of disorder. However, when the magnitude of the exchange potential in ferromagnet is sufficiently large, the random potential can enhance the zero-bias conductance peak in ferromagnetic junctions. (author)

Experts in science and society

CERN Document Server

Gigerenzer, Gerd

2004-01-01

In today's complex world, we have come to rely increasingly on those who have expertise in specific areas and can bring their knowledge to bear on crucial social, political and scientific questions. Taking the viewpoint that experts are consulted when there is something important at stake for an individual, a group, or society at large, Experts in Science and Society explores expertise as a relational concept. How do experts balance their commitment to science with that to society? How does a society actually determine that a person has expertise? What personal traits are valued in an expert? From where does the expert derive authority? What makes new forms of expertise emerge? These and related questions are addressed from a wide range of areas in order to be inclusive, as well as to demonstrate similarities across areas. Likewise, in order to be culturally comparative, this volume includes examples and discussions of experts in different countries and even in different time periods. The topics include the r...

Expert system in PNC, 5

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tobita, Yoshimasa; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Matsumoto, Mitsuo; Ono, Kiyoshi.

1990-01-01

The computer code system which can evaluate the mass balance and cycle cost in nuclear fuel cycle has been developing a PNC using an artificial intelligence technique. This system is composed of the expert system, data base and analysis codes. The expert system is the most important one in the system and the content of the expert system is explained in this paper. The expert system has the three functions. The first is the function of understanding the meaning of user's questions by natural language, the second is the function of selecting the best way to solve the problem given by the user using the knowledge which is already installed in the system, and the last is the function of answering the questions. The knowledge of the experts installed in the expert system is represented by the frame-type rules. Therefore, the knowledge will be simply added to the system, and consequently the system will be easily extended. (author)

Experts on public trial

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blok, Anders

2007-01-01

a case study of the May 2003 Danish consensus conference on environmental economics as a policy tool, the article reflects on the politics of expert authority permeating practices of public participation. Adopting concepts from the sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK), the conference is seen......-than-successful defense in the citizen perspective. Further, consensus conferences are viewed alternatively as "expert dissent conferences," serving to disclose a multiplicity of expert commitments. From this perspective, some challenges for democratizing expertise through future exercises in public participation...

A preliminary study to understand tacit knowledge and visual routines of medical experts through gaze tracking.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Blake; Shyu, Chi-Ren

2010-11-13

Many decisions made by medical experts are based on scans from advanced imaging technologies. Interpreting a medical image is a trained, systematic procedure and an excellent target for identifying potential visual routines through image informatics. These visual routines derived from experts contain many clues about visual knowledge and its representation. This study uses an inexpensive webcam-based gaze tracking method to collect data from multiple technologists' survey of medical and non-medical images. Through computational analysis of the results, we expect to provide insight into the behaviors and properties related to medical visual routines. Discovering the visual processes associated with medical images will help us recognize and understand the tacit knowledge gained from extensive experience with medical imagery. These expert routines could potentially be used to reduce medical error, train new experts, and provide an understanding of the human visual system in medicine.

Surprise, Memory, and Retrospective Judgment Making: Testing Cognitive Reconstruction Theories of the Hindsight Bias Effect

Science.gov (United States)

Ash, Ivan K.

2009-01-01

Hindsight bias has been shown to be a pervasive and potentially harmful decision-making bias. A review of 4 competing cognitive reconstruction theories of hindsight bias revealed conflicting predictions about the role and effect of expectation or surprise in retrospective judgment formation. Two experiments tested these predictions examining the…

An Investigation of Marketing via Mobile Devices - Attitudes of Croatian Marketing Experts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Damir Dobrinić

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Marketing activities supported by mobile devices offer great opportunities for direct communication with consumers without the barriers of time, place, location and other. This article explores opinions and expectations Croatian marketing experts have towards use of m-advertising and other available advertising media, where we take the perspective of marketing experts to predict the future of m-marketing and m-advertising in Croatia. The paper also discusses the relevance of m-advertising and investigates the future of m-marketing and m-advertising in Croatia. This research focuses mainly on understanding the potential and effectiveness of the use of mobile phones as a promotional medium, but we also try to recognize the level of concern of marketing experts associated with spam, relating to privacy intrusion and ethics components in m-advertising. Privacy and ethics concerns could create resistance to the adoption of m-advertising. Media selection becomes the most critical factor for the success of a promotional and advertising marketing campaign. Croatian experts still consider TV or newspapers the best way to reach a large number of potential consumers, but what are their expectations towards mobile advertising? To answer this question, we built a model that links attitudes towards advertising via classical media to the intention to use m-advertising.

CPI Bias in Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chul Chung

2007-12-01

Full Text Available We estimate the CPI bias in Korea by employing the approach of Engel’s Law as suggested by Hamilton (2001. This paper is the first attempt to estimate the bias using Korean panel data, Korean Labor and Income Panel Study(KLIPS. Following Hamilton’s model with non­linear specification correction, our estimation result shows that the cumulative CPI bias over the sample period (2000-2005 was 0.7 percent annually. This CPI bias implies that about 21 percent of the inflation rate during the period can be attributed to the bias. In light of purchasing power parity, we provide an interpretation of the estimated bias.

Reflection group on 'Expert Culture'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eggermont, G.

2000-01-01

As part of SCK-CEN's social sciences and humanities programme, a reflection group on 'Expert Culture' was established. The objectives of the reflection group are: (1) to clarify the role of SCK-CEN experts; (2) to clarify the new role of expertise in the evolving context of risk society; (3) to confront external views and internal SCK-CEN experiences on expert culture; (4) to improve trust building of experts and credibility of SCK-CEN as a nuclear actor in society; (5) to develop a draft for a deontological code; (6) to integrate the approach in training on assertivity and communication; (7) to create an output for a topical day on the subject of expert culture. The programme, achievements and perspectives of the refection group are summarised

PSG-EXPERT. An expert system for the diagnosis of sleep disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Fred, A; Filipe, J; Partinen, M; Paiva, T

2000-01-01

This paper describes PSG-EXPERT, an expert system in the domain of sleep disorders exploring polysomnographic data. The developed software tool is addressed from two points of view: (1)--as an integrated environment for the development of diagnosis-oriented expert systems; (2)--as an auxiliary diagnosis tool in the particular domain of sleep disorders. Developed over a Windows platform, this software tool extends one of the most popular shells--CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System) with the following features: backward chaining engine; graph-based explanation facilities; knowledge editor including a fuzzy fact editor and a rules editor, with facts-rules integrity checking; belief revision mechanism; built-in case generator and validation module. It therefore provides graphical support for knowledge acquisition, edition, explanation and validation. From an application domain point of view, PSG-Expert is an auxiliary diagnosis system for sleep disorders based on polysomnographic data, that aims at assisting the medical expert in his diagnosis task by providing automatic analysis of polysomnographic data, summarising the results of this analysis in terms of a report of major findings and possible diagnosis consistent with the polysomnographic data. Sleep disorders classification follows the International Classification of Sleep Disorders. Major features of the system include: browsing on patients data records; structured navigation on Sleep Disorders descriptions according to ASDA definitions; internet links to related pages; diagnosis consistent with polysomnographic data; graphical user-interface including graph-based explanatory facilities; uncertainty modelling and belief revision; production of reports; connection to remote databases.

Expert Systems: An Overview for Teacher-Librarians.

Science.gov (United States)

Orwig, Gary; Barron, Ann

1992-01-01

Provides an overview of expert systems for teacher librarians. Highlights include artificial intelligence and expert systems; the development of the MYCIN medical expert system; rule-based expert systems; the use of expert system shells to develop a specific system; and how to select an appropriate application for an expert system. (11 references)…

Opposing Forces of A/T-Biased Mutations and G/C-Biased Gene Conversions Shape the Genome of the Nematode Pristionchus pacificus

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, Andreas M.; Rödelsperger, Christian; Eberhardt, Gabi; Molnar, Ruxandra I.; Sommer, Ralf J.

2014-01-01

Base substitution mutations are a major source of genetic novelty and mutation accumulation line (MAL) studies revealed a nearly universal AT bias in de novo mutation spectra. While a comparison of de novo mutation spectra with the actual nucleotide composition in the genome suggests the existence of general counterbalancing mechanisms, little is known about the evolutionary and historical details of these opposing forces. Here, we correlate MAL-derived mutation spectra with patterns observed from population resequencing. Variation observed in natural populations has already been subject to evolutionary forces. Distinction between rare and common alleles, the latter of which are close to fixation and of presumably older age, can provide insight into mutational processes and their influence on genome evolution. We provide a genome-wide analysis of de novo mutations in 22 MALs of the nematode Pristionchus pacificus and compare the spectra with natural variants observed in resequencing of 104 natural isolates. MALs show an AT bias of 5.3, one of the highest values observed to date. In contrast, the AT bias in natural variants is much lower. Specifically, rare derived alleles show an AT bias of 2.4, whereas common derived alleles close to fixation show no AT bias at all. These results indicate the existence of a strong opposing force and they suggest that the GC content of the P. pacificus genome is in equilibrium. We discuss GC-biased gene conversion as a potential mechanism acting against AT-biased mutations. This study provides insight into genome evolution by combining MAL studies with natural variation. PMID:24414549

Accuracy and interobserver agreement between MR-non-expert radiologists and MR-experts in reading MRI for suspected appendicitis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leeuwenburgh, Marjolein M.N., E-mail: m.m.leeuwenburgh@amc.uva.nl [Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Department of Radiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Wiarda, Bart M. [Department of Radiology, Alkmaar Medical Center, Alkmaar (Netherlands); Jensch, Sebastiaan [Department of Radiology, Sint Lucas Andreas Hospital, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Wouter van Es, H. [Department of Radiology, Sint Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Stockmann, Hein B.A.C. [Department of Surgery, Kennemer Gasthuis, Haarlem (Netherlands); Gratama, Jan Willem C. [Department of Radiology, Gelre Hospitals, Apeldoorn (Netherlands); Cobben, Lodewijk P.J. [Department of Radiology, Haaglanden Medical Center, Leidschendam (Netherlands); Bossuyt, Patrick M.M. [Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Boermeester, Marja A. [Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Stoker, Jaap [Department of Radiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2014-01-15

Objective: To compare accuracy and interobserver agreement between radiologists with limited experience in the evaluation of abdominal MRI (non-experts), and radiologists with longer MR reading experience (experts), in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis. Methods: MR imaging was performed in 223 adult patients with suspected appendicitis and read independently by two members of a team of eight MR-inexperienced radiologists, who were trained with 100 MR examinations previous to this study (non-expert reading). Expert reading was performed by two radiologists with a larger abdominal MR experience (>500 examinations) in consensus. A final diagnosis was assigned after three months based on all available information, except MRI findings. We estimated MRI sensitivity and specificity for appendicitis and for all urgent diagnoses separately. Interobserver agreement was evaluated using kappa statistics. Results: Urgent diagnoses were assigned to 147 of 223 patients; 117 had appendicitis. Sensitivity for appendicitis was 0.89 by MR-non-expert radiologists and 0.97 in MR-expert reading (p = 0.01). Specificity was 0.83 for MR-non-experts versus 0.93 for MR-expert reading (p = 0.002). MR-experts and MR-non-experts agreed on appendicitis in 89% of cases (kappa 0.78). Accuracy in detecting urgent diagnoses was significantly lower in MR-non-experts compared to MR-expert reading: sensitivity 0.84 versus 0.95 (p < 0.001) and specificity 0.71 versus 0.82 (p = 0.03), respectively. Agreement on urgent diagnoses was 83% (kappa 0.63). Conclusion: MR-non-experts have sufficient sensitivity in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis, with good agreement with MR-expert reading, but accuracy of MR-expert reading was higher.

Accuracy and interobserver agreement between MR-non-expert radiologists and MR-experts in reading MRI for suspected appendicitis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leeuwenburgh, Marjolein M.N.; Wiarda, Bart M.; Jensch, Sebastiaan; Wouter van Es, H.; Stockmann, Hein B.A.C.; Gratama, Jan Willem C.; Cobben, Lodewijk P.J.; Bossuyt, Patrick M.M.; Boermeester, Marja A.; Stoker, Jaap

2014-01-01

Objective: To compare accuracy and interobserver agreement between radiologists with limited experience in the evaluation of abdominal MRI (non-experts), and radiologists with longer MR reading experience (experts), in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis. Methods: MR imaging was performed in 223 adult patients with suspected appendicitis and read independently by two members of a team of eight MR-inexperienced radiologists, who were trained with 100 MR examinations previous to this study (non-expert reading). Expert reading was performed by two radiologists with a larger abdominal MR experience (>500 examinations) in consensus. A final diagnosis was assigned after three months based on all available information, except MRI findings. We estimated MRI sensitivity and specificity for appendicitis and for all urgent diagnoses separately. Interobserver agreement was evaluated using kappa statistics. Results: Urgent diagnoses were assigned to 147 of 223 patients; 117 had appendicitis. Sensitivity for appendicitis was 0.89 by MR-non-expert radiologists and 0.97 in MR-expert reading (p = 0.01). Specificity was 0.83 for MR-non-experts versus 0.93 for MR-expert reading (p = 0.002). MR-experts and MR-non-experts agreed on appendicitis in 89% of cases (kappa 0.78). Accuracy in detecting urgent diagnoses was significantly lower in MR-non-experts compared to MR-expert reading: sensitivity 0.84 versus 0.95 (p < 0.001) and specificity 0.71 versus 0.82 (p = 0.03), respectively. Agreement on urgent diagnoses was 83% (kappa 0.63). Conclusion: MR-non-experts have sufficient sensitivity in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis, with good agreement with MR-expert reading, but accuracy of MR-expert reading was higher

A system for biasing a differential amplifier

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barbier, Daniel; Ittel, J.M.; Poujois, Robert

1975-01-01

This invention concerns a system for biasing a differential amplifier. It particularly applies to the integrated differential amplifiers designed with MOS field effect transistors. Variations in the technological parameters may well cause the amplifying transistors to work outside their usual operational area, in other words outside the linear part of the transfer characteristic. To ensure that these transistors function correctly, it is necessary that the value of the voltage difference at the output be equally null. To do this and to centre on the so called 'rest' point of the amplifier transfer charateristic, the condition will be set that the output potentials of each amplifier transistor should have a zero value or a constant value as sum. With this in view, the bias on the source (generally a transistor powered by its grid bias voltage) supplying current to the two amplifying transistors fitted in parallel, is permanently adjusted in a suitable manner [fr

Progress on developing expert systems in waste management and disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rivera, A.L.; Ferrada, J.J.

1990-01-01

The concept of artificial intelligence (AI) represents a challenging opportunity in expanding the potential benefits from computer technology in waste management and disposal. The potential of this concept lies in facilitating the development of intelligent computer systems to help analysts, decision makers, and operators in waste and technology problem solving similar to the way that machines support the laborer. Because the knowledge of multiple human experts is an essential input in the many aspects of waste management and disposal, there are numerous opportunities for the development of expert systems using software products from AI. This paper presents systems analysis as an attractive framework for the development of intelligent computer systems of significance to waste management and disposal, and it provides an overview of limited prototype systems and the commercially available software used during prototype development activities

Intelligent programs-expert systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gledhill, V X

1982-01-01

In recent years, computer scientists have developed what are called expert systems. These programs have three fundamental components: a knowledge base, which changes with experience; an inference engine which enables the program to make decisions; and an interface that allows the program to communicate with the person using the system. Expert systems have been developed successfully in areas such as medical diagnosis, geology, and computer maintenance. This paper describes the evolution and basic principles of expert systems and give some examples of their use.

Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage-A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansson, Anders; Bryngelsson, Marten

2009-01-01

There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)-e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (i) the function and potential of CCS and (ii) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements.

Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage-A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansson, Anders [Linkoeping University, Department of Technology and Social Change, SE-58183 Linkoeping (Sweden); Linkoeping University, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, SE-60174 Norrkoeping (Sweden); Bryngelsson, Marten [KTH, School of Chemical Sciences, Teknikringen 50, SE-10044 Stockholm (Sweden)], E-mail: mrtn@kth.se

2009-06-15

There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)-e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (i) the function and potential of CCS and (ii) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements.

Eliciting expert opinion for economic models: an applied example.

Science.gov (United States)

Leal, José; Wordsworth, Sarah; Legood, Rosa; Blair, Edward

2007-01-01

Expert opinion is considered as a legitimate source of information for decision-analytic modeling where required data are unavailable. Our objective was to develop a practical computer-based tool for eliciting expert opinion about the shape of the uncertainty distribution around individual model parameters. We first developed a prepilot survey with departmental colleagues to test a number of alternative approaches to eliciting opinions on the shape of the uncertainty distribution around individual parameters. This information was used to develop a survey instrument for an applied clinical example. This involved eliciting opinions from experts to inform a number of parameters involving Bernoulli processes in an economic model evaluating DNA testing for families with a genetic disease, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. The experts were cardiologists, clinical geneticists, and laboratory scientists working with cardiomyopathy patient populations and DNA testing. Our initial prepilot work suggested that the more complex elicitation techniques advocated in the literature were difficult to use in practice. In contrast, our approach achieved a reasonable response rate (50%), provided logical answers, and was generally rated as easy to use by respondents. The computer software user interface permitted graphical feedback throughout the elicitation process. The distributions obtained were incorporated into the model, enabling the use of probabilistic sensitivity analysis. There is clearly a gap in the literature between theoretical elicitation techniques and tools that can be used in applied decision-analytic models. The results of this methodological study are potentially valuable for other decision analysts deriving expert opinion.

Codon Bias Patterns of E. coli's Interacting Proteins.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maddalena Dilucca

Full Text Available Synonymous codons, i.e., DNA nucleotide triplets coding for the same amino acid, are used differently across the variety of living organisms. The biological meaning of this phenomenon, known as codon usage bias, is still controversial. In order to shed light on this point, we propose a new codon bias index, CompAI, that is based on the competition between cognate and near-cognate tRNAs during translation, without being tuned to the usage bias of highly expressed genes. We perform a genome-wide evaluation of codon bias for E.coli, comparing CompAI with other widely used indices: tAI, CAI, and Nc. We show that CompAI and tAI capture similar information by being positively correlated with gene conservation, measured by the Evolutionary Retention Index (ERI, and essentiality, whereas, CAI and Nc appear to be less sensitive to evolutionary-functional parameters. Notably, the rate of variation of tAI and CompAI with ERI allows to obtain sets of genes that consistently belong to specific clusters of orthologous genes (COGs. We also investigate the correlation of codon bias at the genomic level with the network features of protein-protein interactions in E.coli. We find that the most densely connected communities of the network share a similar level of codon bias (as measured by CompAI and tAI. Conversely, a small difference in codon bias between two genes is, statistically, a prerequisite for the corresponding proteins to interact. Importantly, among all codon bias indices, CompAI turns out to have the most coherent distribution over the communities of the interactome, pointing to the significance of competition among cognate and near-cognate tRNAs for explaining codon usage adaptation. Notably, CompAI may potentially correlate with translation speed measurements, by accounting for the specific delay induced by wobble-pairing between codons and anticodons.

Decision making biases in the communication of earthquake risk

Science.gov (United States)

Welsh, M. B.; Steacy, S.; Begg, S. H.; Navarro, D. J.

2015-12-01

L'Aquila, with 6 scientists convicted of manslaughter, shocked the scientific community, leading to urgent re-appraisal of communication methods for low-probability, high-impact events. Before the trial, a commission investigating the earthquake recommended risk assessment be formalised via operational earthquake forecasts and that social scientists be enlisted to assist in developing communication strategies. Psychological research has identified numerous decision biases relevant to this, including hindsight bias, where people (after the fact) overestimate an event's predictability. This affects experts as well as naïve participants as it relates to their ability to construct a plausible causal story rather than the likelihood of the event. Another problem is availability, which causes overestimation of the likelihood of observed rare events due to their greater noteworthiness. This, however, is complicated by the 'description-experience' gap, whereby people underestimate probabilities for events they have not experienced. That is, people who have experienced strong earthquakes judge them more likely while those who have not judge them less likely - relative to actual probabilities. Finally, format changes alter people's decisions. That is people treat '1 in 10,000' as different from 0.01% despite their mathematical equivalence. Such effects fall under the broad term framing, which describes how different framings of the same event alter decisions. In particular, people's attitude to risk depends significantly on how scenarios are described. We examine the effect of biases on the communication of change in risk. South Australian participants gave responses to scenarios describing familiar (bushfire) or unfamiliar (earthquake) risks. While bushfires are rare in specific locations, significant fire events occur each year and are extensively covered. By comparison, our study location (Adelaide) last had a M5 quake in 1954. Preliminary results suggest the description

Model for an irreversible bias current in the superconducting qubit measurement process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hutchinson, G. D.; Williams, D. A.; Holmes, C. A.; Stace, T. M.; Spiller, T. P.; Barrett, S. D.; Milburn, G. J.; Hasko, D. G.

2006-01-01

The superconducting charge-phase ''quantronium'' qubit is considered in order to develop a model for the measurement process used in the experiment of Vion et al. [Science 296, 886 (2002)]. For this model we propose a method for including the bias current in the readout process in a fundamentally irreversible way, which to first order is approximated by the Josephson junction tilted-washboard potential phenomenology. The decohering bias current is introduced in the form of a Lindblad operator and the Wigner function for the current-biased readout Josephson junction is derived and analyzed. During the readout current pulse used in the quantronium experiment we find that the coherence of the qubit initially prepared in a symmetric superposition state is lost at a time of 0.2 ns after the bias current pulse has been applied, a time scale that is much shorter than the experimental readout time. Additionally we look at the effect of Johnson-Nyquist noise with zero mean from the current source during the qubit manipulation and show that the decoherence due to the irreversible bias current description is an order of magnitude smaller than that found through adding noise to the reversible tilted-washboard potential model. Our irreversible bias current model is also applicable to persistent-current-based qubits where the state is measured according to its flux via a small-inductance direct-current superconducting quantum interference device

Distributed expert systems for ground and space applications

Science.gov (United States)

Buckley, Brian; Wheatcraft, Louis

1992-01-01

Presented here is the Spacecraft Command Language (SCL) concept of the unification of ground and space operations using a distributed approach. SCL is a hybrid software environment borrowing from expert system technology, fifth generation language development, and multitasking operating system environments. Examples of potential uses for the system and current distributed applications of SCL are given.

An assessment of change in risk perception and optimistic bias for hurricanes among Gulf Coast residents.

Science.gov (United States)

Trumbo, Craig; Meyer, Michelle A; Marlatt, Holly; Peek, Lori; Morrissey, Bridget

2014-06-01

This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Coast during the quiescent two-year period following the exceptionally destructive 2005 hurricane season. A small study of risk perception and optimistic bias was conducted immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Two years later, a follow-up was done in which respondents were recontacted. This provided an opportunity to examine changes, and potential causal ordering, in risk perception and optimistic bias. The analysis uses 201 panel respondents who were matched across the two mail surveys. Measures included hurricane risk perception, optimistic bias for hurricane evacuation, past hurricane experience, and a small set of demographic variables (age, sex, income, and education). Paired t-tests were used to compare scores across time. Hurricane risk perception declined and optimistic bias increased. Cross-lagged correlations were used to test the potential causal ordering between risk perception and optimistic bias, with a weak effect suggesting the former affects the latter. Additional cross-lagged analysis using structural equation modeling was used to look more closely at the components of optimistic bias (risk to self vs. risk to others). A significant and stronger potentially causal effect from risk perception to optimistic bias was found. Analysis of the experience and demographic variables' effects on risk perception and optimistic bias, and their change, provided mixed results. The lessening of risk perception and increase in optimistic bias over the period of quiescence suggest that risk communicators and emergency managers should direct attention toward reversing these trends to increase disaster preparedness. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

A demonstration of expert systems applications in transportation engineering : volume I, transportation engineers and expert systems.

Science.gov (United States)

1987-01-01

Expert systems, a branch of artificial-intelligence studies, is introduced with a view to its relevance in transportation engineering. Knowledge engineering, the process of building expert systems or transferring knowledge from human experts to compu...

Biased information processing in the escalation paradigm: information search and information evaluation as potential mediators of escalating commitment.

Science.gov (United States)

Schultze, Thomas; Pfeiffer, Felix; Schulz-Hardt, Stefan

2012-01-01

Escalation of commitment denotes decision makers' increased reinvestment of resources in a losing course of action. Despite the relevance of this topic, little is known about how information is processed in escalation situations, that is, whether decision makers who receive negative outcome feedback on their initial decision search for and/or process information biasedly and whether these biases contribute to escalating commitment. Contrary to a widely cited study by E. J. Conlon and J. M. Parks (1987), in 3 experiments, the authors found that biases do not occur on the level of information search. Neither in a direct replication and extension of the original study with largely increased test power (Experiment 1) nor under methodologically improved conditions (Experiments 2 and 3) did decision makers responsible for failure differ from nonresponsible decision makers with regards to information search, and no selective search for information supporting the initial decision or voting for further reinvestment was observed. However, Experiments 3 and 4 show that the evaluation of the previously sought information is biased among participants who were responsible for initiating the course of action. Mediation analyses show that this evaluation bias in favor of reinvestment partially mediated the responsibility effect on escalation of commitment.

Approximate Bias Correction in Econometrics

OpenAIRE

James G. MacKinnon; Anthony A. Smith Jr.

1995-01-01

This paper discusses ways to reduce the bias of consistent estimators that are biased in finite samples. It is necessary that the bias function, which relates parameter values to bias, should be estimable by computer simulation or by some other method. If so, bias can be reduced or, in some cases that may not be unrealistic, even eliminated. In general, several evaluations of the bias function will be required to do this. Unfortunately, reducing bias may increase the variance, or even the mea...

TU Delft expert judgment data base

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooke, Roger M.; Goossens, Louis L.H.J.

2008-01-01

We review the applications of structured expert judgment uncertainty quantification using the 'classical model' developed at the Delft University of Technology over the last 17 years [Cooke RM. Experts in uncertainty. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1991; Expert judgment study on atmospheric dispersion and deposition. Report Faculty of Technical Mathematics and Informatics No.01-81, Delft University of Technology; 1991]. These involve 45 expert panels, performed under contract with problem owners who reviewed and approved the results. With a few exceptions, all these applications involved the use of seed variables; that is, variables from the experts' area of expertise for which the true values are available post hoc. Seed variables are used to (1) measure expert performance, (2) enable performance-based weighted combination of experts' distributions, and (3) evaluate and hopefully validate the resulting combination or 'decision maker'. This article reviews the classical model for structured expert judgment and the performance measures, reviews applications, comparing performance-based decision makers with 'equal weight' decision makers, and collects some lessons learned

Expert system technology for the military

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franklin, J.E.; Carmody, C.L.; Buteau, B.L.; Keller, K.; Levitt, T.S.

1988-01-01

This paper is concerned with the applications of expert systems to complex military problems. A brief description of needs for expert systems in the military arena is given. A short tutorial on some of the elements of an expert system is found in Appendix I. An important aspect of expert systems concerns using uncertain information and ill-defined procedures. Many of the general techniques of dealing with uncertainty are described in Appendix II. These techniques include Bayesian certainty factors, Dempster-Shafer theory of uncertainty, and Zadeh's fuzzy set theory. The major portion of the paper addresses specific expert system examples such as resource allocation, identification of radar images, maintenance and troubleshooting of electronic equipment, and the interpretation and understanding of radar images. Extensions of expert systems to incorporate learning are examined in the context of military intelligence to determine the disposition, location, and intention of the adversary. The final application involves the use of distributed communicating cooperating expert systems for battle management. Finally, the future of expert systems and their evolving capabilities are discussed

The anchoring bias reflects rational use of cognitive resources.

Science.gov (United States)

Lieder, Falk; Griffiths, Thomas L; M Huys, Quentin J; Goodman, Noah D

2018-02-01

Cognitive biases, such as the anchoring bias, pose a serious challenge to rational accounts of human cognition. We investigate whether rational theories can meet this challenge by taking into account the mind's bounded cognitive resources. We asked what reasoning under uncertainty would look like if people made rational use of their finite time and limited cognitive resources. To answer this question, we applied a mathematical theory of bounded rationality to the problem of numerical estimation. Our analysis led to a rational process model that can be interpreted in terms of anchoring-and-adjustment. This model provided a unifying explanation for ten anchoring phenomena including the differential effect of accuracy motivation on the bias towards provided versus self-generated anchors. Our results illustrate the potential of resource-rational analysis to provide formal theories that can unify a wide range of empirical results and reconcile the impressive capacities of the human mind with its apparently irrational cognitive biases.

Competing risk bias was common in Kaplan-Meier risk estimates published in prominent medical journals.

Science.gov (United States)

van Walraven, Carl; McAlister, Finlay A

2016-01-01

Risk estimates from Kaplan-Meier curves are well known to medical researchers, reviewers, and editors. In this study, we determined the proportion of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in prominent medical journals that are potentially biased because of competing events ("competing risk bias"). We randomly selected 100 studies that had at least one Kaplan-Meier analysis and were recently published in prominent medical journals. Susceptibility to competing risk bias was determined by examining the outcome and potential competing events. In susceptible studies, bias was quantified using a previously validated prediction model when the number of outcomes and competing events were given. Forty-six studies (46%) contained Kaplan-Meier analyses susceptible to competing risk bias. Sixteen studies (34.8%) susceptible to competing risk cited the number of outcomes and competing events; in six of these studies (6/16, 37.5%), the outcome risk from the Kaplan-Meier estimate (relative to the true risk) was biased upward by 10% or more. Almost half of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in medical journals are susceptible to competing risk bias and may overestimate event risk. This bias was found to be quantitatively important in a third of such studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reflective Practice: How the World Bank Explored Its Own Biases?

Science.gov (United States)

McKee, Martin; Stuckler, David

2015-12-10

While many international organisations have independent evaluations, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Health organization (WHO), uniquely the World Bank in its 2015 World Development Report sought to ascertain the potential biases that influence how its staff interpret evidence and influence policy. Here, we describe the World Bank's study design, including experiments to ascertain the impact on Bank staff's judgements of complexity, confirmation bias, sunk cost bias, and an understanding of the wishes of those whom they seek to help. We then review the Bank's proposed mechanisms to minimise the impact of the biases they identified. We argue that this approach, that we refer to as 'reflective practice,' deserves to be adopted more widely among institutions that seek to use evidence from research to inform policy and practice. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

Attentional bias modification based on visual probe task: methodological issues, results and clinical relevance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernanda Machado Lopes

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Attentional bias, the tendency that a person has to drive or maintain attention to a specific class of stimuli, may play an important role in the etiology and persistence of mental disorders. Attentional bias modification has been studied as a form of additional treatment related to automatic processing. Objectives: This systematic literature review compared and discussed methods, evidence of success and potential clinical applications of studies about attentional bias modification (ABM using a visual probe task. Methods: The Web of Knowledge, PubMed and PsycInfo were searched using the keywords attentional bias modification, attentional bias manipulation and attentional bias training. We selected empirical studies about ABM training using a visual probe task written in English and published between 2002 and 2014. Results: Fifty-seven studies met inclusion criteria. Most (78% succeeded in training attention in the predicted direction, and in 71% results were generalized to other measures correlated with the symptoms. Conclusions: ABM has potential clinical utility, but to standardize methods and maximize applicability, future studies should include clinical samples and be based on findings of studies about its effectiveness.

Image-based teleconsultation using smartphones or tablets: qualitative assessment of medical experts

OpenAIRE

Boissin, Constance; Blom, Lisa; Wallis, Lee; Laflamme, Lucie

2016-01-01

Background Mobile health has promising potential in improving healthcare delivery by facilitating access to expert advice. Enabling experts to review images on their smartphone or tablet may save valuable time. This study aims at assessing whether images viewed by medical specialists on handheld devices such as smartphones and tablets are perceived to be of comparable quality as when viewed on a computer screen. Methods This was a prospective study comparing the perceived quality of 18 images...

Evaluation of bias associated with high-multiplex, target-specific pre-amplification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven T. Okino

2016-01-01

Full Text Available We developed a novel PCR-based pre-amplification (PreAmp technology that can increase the abundance of over 350 target genes one million-fold. To assess potential bias introduced by PreAmp we utilized ERCC RNA reference standards, a model system that quantifies measurement error in RNA analysis. We assessed three types of bias: amplification bias, dynamic range bias and fold-change bias. We show that our PreAmp workflow introduces only minimal amplification and fold-change bias under stringent conditions. We do detect dynamic range bias if a target gene is highly abundant and PreAmp occurred for 16 or more PCR cycles; however, this type of bias is easily correctable. To assess PreAmp bias in a gene expression profiling experiment, we analyzed a panel of genes that are regulated during differentiation using the NTera2 stem cell model system. We find that results generated using PreAmp are similar to results obtained using standard qPCR (without the pre-amplification step. Importantly, PreAmp maintains patterns of gene expression changes across samples; the same biological insights would be derived from a PreAmp experiment as with a standard gene expression profiling experiment. We conclude that our PreAmp technology can facilitate analysis of extremely limited samples in gene expression quantification experiments.

Web Based Cattle Disease Expert System Diagnosis with forward Chaining Method

Science.gov (United States)

Zamsuri, Ahmad; Syafitri, Wenni; Sadar, Muhamad

2017-12-01

Cattle is one of the livestock who have high economic potential, whether for livestock, cattle seed, or even for food stock. Everything that comes from Cattle is a treasure for example the Milk, the Meat, and Cattle-hide. The factor that cause Cattles to die is the spread of disease that could crock up the Cattle’s health. So that the Expert system is needed to utilize and analye the Cattle’s disease so it could detect the disease without going to the veterinarian. Forward chaining method is one of the correct method in this expert system wherein began with Symptoms to determine the illness. From this matter, we built a web based expert system application on Cattles disease to ease the disease detection and showing the brief information about the Cattles itself.

Energy efficiency enhancement in cement factories using expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Effatnejad, R.; Jadih, S.

2001-01-01

Full text : In this paper, expert system for energy efficiency in cement industry is presented. Due to the fact that cement manufacturing project in these factories are similar, so in main parts knowing the consumption origins and save potential and existing approaches can be similar. In this method, via expert system software of prolog AH types of energy consumption and investment costs are listed in which method of best first search and innovative search have been used and by forming knowledge base, targeting to get best approaches is presented. The obtained results, regarding the executed limits, will be displayed in the output of program and this program can be given the best decision about energy management in cement factories

[Deontology of the medical expert].

Science.gov (United States)

Raszeja, S

1995-09-01

The authority of prosecuting organ to choose the expert, set his task and verify the following opinion is defined. The qualities of the medical expert and his duties are described, referring to: -his expertise; -his morality; -his ability to issue an independent (objective) opinion. Detailed rules, which can be ascribed to a specific medical expert's deontological code, are listed and explained.

Beyond attentional bias: a perceptual bias in a dot-probe task.

Science.gov (United States)

Bocanegra, Bruno R; Huijding, Jorg; Zeelenberg, René

2012-12-01

Previous dot-probe studies indicate that threat-related face cues induce a bias in spatial attention. Independently of spatial attention, a recent psychophysical study suggests that a bilateral fearful face cue improves low spatial-frequency perception (LSF) and impairs high spatial-frequency perception (HSF). Here, we combine these separate lines of research within a single dot-probe paradigm. We found that a bilateral fearful face cue, compared with a bilateral neutral face cue, speeded up responses to LSF targets and slowed down responses to HSF targets. This finding is important, as it shows that emotional cues in dot-probe tasks not only bias where information is preferentially processed (i.e., an attentional bias in spatial location), but also bias what type of information is preferentially processed (i.e., a perceptual bias in spatial frequency). PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Simulating publication bias

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Paldam, Martin

is censoring: selection by the size of estimate; SR3 selects the optimal combination of fit and size; and SR4 selects the first satisficing result. The last four SRs are steered by priors and result in bias. The MST and the FAT-PET have been developed for detection and correction of such bias. The simulations......Economic research typically runs J regressions for each selected for publication – it is often selected as the ‘best’ of the regressions. The paper examines five possible meanings of the word ‘best’: SR0 is ideal selection with no bias; SR1 is polishing: selection by statistical fit; SR2...... are made by data variation, while the model is the same. It appears that SR0 generates narrow funnels much at odds with observed funnels, while the other four funnels look more realistic. SR1 to SR4 give the mean a substantial bias that confirms the prior causing the bias. The FAT-PET MRA works well...

Expert systems: An overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verdejo, F.

1985-01-01

The purpose of this article is to introduce readers to the basic principles of rule-based expert systems. Four topics are discussed in subsequent sections: (1) Definition; (2) Structure of an expert system; (3) State of the art and (4) Impact and future research. (orig.)

A study on investors’ personality characteristics and behavioral biases: Conservatism bias and availability bias in the Tehran Stock Exchange

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahmoud Moradi

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Most economic and finance theories are based on the assumption that during economic decision making, people would act totally rational and consider all available information. Nevertheless, behavioral finance focuses on studying of the role of psychological factors on economic participants’ behavior. The study shows that in real-world environment, people are influenced by emotional and cognitive errors and may make irrational financial decisions. In many cases, the participants of financial markets are not aware of their talents for error in decision making, so they are dissatisfied with their investments by considering some behavioral biases decisions. These decisions may often yield undesirable outcomes, which could influence economy, significantly. This paper presents a survey on the relationship between personality dimensions with behavioral biases and availability bias among investment managers in the Tehran Stock Exchange using SPSS software, descriptive and inferential statistics. The necessary data are collected through questionnaire and they are analyzed using some statistical tests. The preliminary results indicate that there is a relationship between personality dimensions and behavioral biases like conservatism bias and availability bias among the investors in the Tehran Stock Exchange.

Operator Bias in the Estimation of Arc Efficiency in Gas Tungsten Arc Welding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fredrik Sikström

2015-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper the operator bias in the measurement process of arc efficiency in stationary direct current electrode negative gas tungsten arc welding is discussed. An experimental study involving 15 operators (enough to reach statistical significance has been carried out with the purpose to estimate the arc efficiency from a specific procedure for calorimetric experiments. The measurement procedure consists of three manual operations which introduces operator bias in the measurement process. An additional relevant experiment highlights the consequences of estimating the arc voltage by measuring the potential between the terminals of the welding power source instead of measuring the potential between the electrode contact tube and the workpiece. The result of the study is a statistical evaluation of the operator bias influence on the estimate, showing that operator bias is negligible in the estimate considered here. On the contrary the consequences of neglecting welding leads voltage drop results in a significant under estimation of the arc efficiency.

Content specificity of attention bias to threat in anxiety disorders: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Pergamin-Hight, Lee; Naim, Reut; Bakermans-Kranenburg, Marian J; van IJzendoorn, Marinus H; Bar-Haim, Yair

2015-02-01

Despite the established evidence for threat-related attention bias in anxiety, the mechanisms underlying this bias remain unclear. One important unresolved question is whether disorder-congruent threats capture attention to a greater extent than do more general or disorder-incongruent threat stimuli. Evidence for attention bias specificity in anxiety would implicate involvement of previous learning and memory processes in threat-related attention bias, whereas lack of content specificity would point to perturbations in more generic attention processes. Enhanced clarity of mechanism could have clinical implications for the stimuli types used in Attention Bias Modification Treatments (ABMT). Content specificity of threat-related attention bias in anxiety and potential moderators of this effect were investigated. A systematic search identified 37 samples from 29 articles (N=866). Relevant data were extracted based on specific coding rules, and Cohen's d effect size was used to estimate bias specificity effects. The results indicate greater attention bias toward disorder-congruent relative to disorder-incongruent threat stimuli (d=0.28, pattention tasks, or type of disorder-incongruent stimuli. No evidence of publication bias was observed. Implications for threat bias in anxiety and ABMT are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Visual attention and the neuroimage bias.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D A Baker

Full Text Available Several highly-cited experiments have presented evidence suggesting that neuroimages may unduly bias laypeople's judgments of scientific research. This finding has been especially worrisome to the legal community in which neuroimage techniques may be used to produce evidence of a person's mental state. However, a more recent body of work that has looked directly at the independent impact of neuroimages on layperson decision-making (both in legal and more general arenas, and has failed to find evidence of bias. To help resolve these conflicting findings, this research uses eye tracking technology to provide a measure of attention to different visual representations of neuroscientific data. Finding an effect of neuroimages on the distribution of attention would provide a potential mechanism for the influence of neuroimages on higher-level decisions. In the present experiment, a sample of laypeople viewed a vignette that briefly described a court case in which the defendant's actions might have been explained by a neurological defect. Accompanying these vignettes was either an MRI image of the defendant's brain, or a bar graph depicting levels of brain activity-two competing visualizations that have been the focus of much of the previous research on the neuroimage bias. We found that, while laypeople differentially attended to neuroimagery relative to the bar graph, this did not translate into differential judgments in a way that would support the idea of a neuroimage bias.

Operational expert system applications in Canada

CERN Document Server

Suen, Ching Y

1992-01-01

This book is part of a new series on operational expert systems worldwide. Expert systems are now widely used in different parts of the world for various applications. The past four years have witnessed a steady growth in the development and deployment of expert systems in Canada. Research in this field has also gained considerable momentum during the past few years. However, the field of expert systems is still young in Canada. This book contains 13 chapters contributed by 31 experts from both universities and industries across Canada covering a wide range of applications related to electric

Effects of three types of potentially biasing information on symptom severity judgments for major depressive episode.

Science.gov (United States)

Mumma, Gregory H

2002-10-01

Two experiments examined the effects of potentially biasing information on judgments of symptom severity pertaining to the diagnosis of major depressive episode (MDE). In both experiments, clinicians viewed videotapes of two actor-simulated patients responding to questions from a standardized diagnostic interview. In Study 1, an expectancy effect was found for both patients such that prior information about a clear-cut history of depression resulted in lower rated severity of current symptoms. In addition, a halo effect was observed for one patient in Study 1 and both patients in Study 2: Clear-cut depressive nonverbal behavior (DNVB) resulted in greater rated severity for symptoms that should not have been affected (e.g., appetite/weight change, suicidal ideation). Clear-cut versus near-threshold information for the two essential criteria for MDE did not affect subsequent judgments in either study. Implications for diagnostic interviewing are discussed. Copyright 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Clin Psychol 58: 1327-1345, 2002.

Can statistic adjustment of OR minimize the potential confounding bias for meta-analysis of case-control study? A secondary data analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Tianyi; Nie, Xiaolu; Wu, Zehao; Zhang, Ying; Feng, Guoshuang; Cai, Siyu; Lv, Yaqi; Peng, Xiaoxia

2017-12-29

Different confounder adjustment strategies were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) in case-control study, i.e. how many confounders original studies adjusted and what the variables are. This secondary data analysis is aimed to detect whether there are potential biases caused by difference of confounding factor adjustment strategies in case-control study, and whether such bias would impact the summary effect size of meta-analysis. We included all meta-analyses that focused on the association between breast cancer and passive smoking among non-smoking women, as well as each original case-control studies included in these meta-analyses. The relative deviations (RDs) of each original study were calculated to detect how magnitude the adjustment would impact the estimation of ORs, compared with crude ORs. At the same time, a scatter diagram was sketched to describe the distribution of adjusted ORs with different number of adjusted confounders. Substantial inconsistency existed in meta-analysis of case-control studies, which would influence the precision of the summary effect size. First, mixed unadjusted and adjusted ORs were used to combine individual OR in majority of meta-analysis. Second, original studies with different adjustment strategies of confounders were combined, i.e. the number of adjusted confounders and different factors being adjusted in each original study. Third, adjustment did not make the effect size of original studies trend to constringency, which suggested that model fitting might have failed to correct the systematic error caused by confounding. The heterogeneity of confounder adjustment strategies in case-control studies may lead to further bias for summary effect size in meta-analyses, especially for weak or medium associations so that the direction of causal inference would be even reversed. Therefore, further methodological researches are needed, referring to the assessment of confounder adjustment strategies, as well as how to take this kind

Media bias under direct and indirect government control: when is the bias smaller?

OpenAIRE

Abhra Roy

2015-01-01

We present an analytical framework to compare media bias under direct and indirect government control. In this context, we show that direct control can lead to a smaller bias and higher welfare than indirect control. We further show that the size of the advertising market affects media bias only under direct control. Media bias, under indirect control, is not affected by the size of the advertising market.

Methodologies for Measuring Judicial Performance: The Problem of Bias

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Elek

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Concerns about gender and racial bias in the survey-based evaluations of judicial performance common in the United States have persisted for decades. Consistent with a large body of basic research in the psychological sciences, recent studies confirm that the results from these JPE surveys are systematically biased against women and minority judges. In this paper, we explain the insidious manner in which performance evaluations may be biased, describe some techniques that may help to reduce expressions of bias in judicial performance evaluation surveys, and discuss the potential problem such biases may pose in other common methods of performance evaluation used in the United States and elsewhere. We conclude by highlighting the potential adverse consequences of judicial performance evaluation programs that rely on biased measurements. Durante décadas ha habido una preocupación por la discriminación por género y racial en las evaluaciones del rendimiento judicial basadas en encuestas, comunes en Estados Unidos. De acuerdo con un gran corpus de investigación básica en las ciencias psicológicas, estudios recientes confirman que los resultados de estas encuestas de evaluación del rendimiento judicial están sistemáticamente sesgados contra las mujeres y los jueces de minorías. En este artículo se explica la manera insidiosa en que las evaluaciones de rendimiento pueden estar sesgadas, se describen algunas técnicas que pueden ayudar a reducir las expresiones de sesgo en los estudios de evaluación del rendimiento judicial, y se debate el problema potencial que estos sesgos pueden plantear en otros métodos comunes de evaluación del rendimiento utilizados en Estados Unidos y otros países. Se concluye destacando las posibles consecuencias adversas de los programas de evaluación del rendimiento judicial que se basan en mediciones sesgadas. DOWNLOAD THIS PAPER FROM SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2533937

Expert Systems as Tools for Technical Communicators.

Science.gov (United States)

Grider, Daryl A.

1994-01-01

Discusses expertise, what an expert system is, what an expert system shell is, what expert systems can and cannot do, knowledge engineering and technical communicators, and planning and managing expert system projects. (SR)

Numerical modelling of pump limiter biasing on TEXTOR-94 and Tore Supra

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerhauser, H.; Claassen, H.A.; Mank, G.; Zagorski, R.; Loarer, T.; Gunn, J.; Boucher, C.

2002-01-01

The two-dimensional multifluid code TECXY has been used to model the biasing (with respect to the first wall) of the toroidal belt limiter ALT-II on the tokamak TEXTOR-94 and of the new toroidal pump limiter being installed on Tore Supra tokamak in the framework of the CIEL project. It is well known that the edge flow pattern can be influenced by the poloidal electric drifts from imposing radial electric fields. The modelling with TECXY introduces imprinted bias currents in the scrape-off layer (SOL) for the case of negative (limiter) biasing, and imprinted bias potentials for the case of positive biasing. This allowed us to simulate sufficiently well the experimental I-V characteristics for either biasing of ALT-II and also reproduced the essential features and trends of the observed plasma profiles in the SOL of TEXTOR-94. For negative biasing a moderate improvement of the pumping exhaust efficiency can be achieved in the case of TEXTOR. For Tore Supra, however, only a negligible improvement of the limiter performance with biasing can be predicted, which is explained by the relatively weak drift flows in Tore Supra. (author)

Large-scale galaxy bias

Science.gov (United States)

Desjacques, Vincent; Jeong, Donghui; Schmidt, Fabian

2018-02-01

This review presents a comprehensive overview of galaxy bias, that is, the statistical relation between the distribution of galaxies and matter. We focus on large scales where cosmic density fields are quasi-linear. On these scales, the clustering of galaxies can be described by a perturbative bias expansion, and the complicated physics of galaxy formation is absorbed by a finite set of coefficients of the expansion, called bias parameters. The review begins with a detailed derivation of this very important result, which forms the basis of the rigorous perturbative description of galaxy clustering, under the assumptions of General Relativity and Gaussian, adiabatic initial conditions. Key components of the bias expansion are all leading local gravitational observables, which include the matter density but also tidal fields and their time derivatives. We hence expand the definition of local bias to encompass all these contributions. This derivation is followed by a presentation of the peak-background split in its general form, which elucidates the physical meaning of the bias parameters, and a detailed description of the connection between bias parameters and galaxy statistics. We then review the excursion-set formalism and peak theory which provide predictions for the values of the bias parameters. In the remainder of the review, we consider the generalizations of galaxy bias required in the presence of various types of cosmological physics that go beyond pressureless matter with adiabatic, Gaussian initial conditions: primordial non-Gaussianity, massive neutrinos, baryon-CDM isocurvature perturbations, dark energy, and modified gravity. Finally, we discuss how the description of galaxy bias in the galaxies' rest frame is related to clustering statistics measured from the observed angular positions and redshifts in actual galaxy catalogs.

A father effect explains sex-ratio bias.

Science.gov (United States)

Malo, Aurelio F; Martinez-Pastor, Felipe; Garcia-Gonzalez, Francisco; Garde, Julián; Ballou, Jonathan D; Lacy, Robert C

2017-08-30

Sex ratio allocation has important fitness consequences, and theory predicts that parents should adjust offspring sex ratio in cases where the fitness returns of producing male and female offspring vary. The ability of fathers to bias offspring sex ratios has traditionally been dismissed given the expectation of an equal proportion of X- and Y-chromosome-bearing sperm (CBS) in ejaculates due to segregation of sex chromosomes at meiosis. This expectation has been recently refuted. Here we used Peromyscus leucopus to demonstrate that sex ratio is explained by an exclusive effect of the father, and suggest a likely mechanism by which male-driven sex-ratio bias is attained. We identified a male sperm morphological marker that is associated with the mechanism leading to sex ratio bias; differences among males in the sperm nucleus area (a proxy for the sex chromosome that the sperm contains) explain 22% variation in litter sex ratio. We further show the role played by the sperm nucleus area as a mediator in the relationship between individual genetic variation and sex-ratio bias. Fathers with high levels of genetic variation had ejaculates with a higher proportion of sperm with small nuclei area. This, in turn, led to siring a higher proportion of sons (25% increase in sons per 0.1 decrease in the inbreeding coefficient). Our results reveal a plausible mechanism underlying unexplored male-driven sex-ratio biases. We also discuss why this pattern of paternal bias can be adaptive. This research puts to rest the idea that father contribution to sex ratio variation should be disregarded in vertebrates, and will stimulate research on evolutionary constraints to sex ratios-for example, whether fathers and mothers have divergent, coinciding, or neutral sex allocation interests. Finally, these results offer a potential explanation for those intriguing cases in which there are sex ratio biases, such as in humans. © 2017 The Author(s).

Flow cytometric sexing of spider sperm reveals an equal sperm production ratio in a female-biased species

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vanthournout, Bram; Deswarte, K; Hammad, H

2014-01-01

research. Pinpointing the underlying mechanism of sex ratio bias is challenging owing to the multitude of potential sex ratio-biasing factors. In the dwarf spider, Oedothorax gibbosus, infection with the bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia results in a female bias. However, pedigree analysis reveals...

An expert system for uranium exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chhipa, V.K.; Sengupta, M.

1989-01-01

Artificial intelligence is an emerging technology in the field of computer application. Expert systems have been developed to imitate human intelligence and reasoning process. Expert systems have much scope of application in the decision making process in mineral exploration as such decisions are highly subjective and expert opinions are very helpful. This paper presents a small expert system to analyze the reasoning process in exploring for uranium deposits in sandstone

Expert software for accident identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dobnikar, M.; Nemec, T.; Muehleisen, A.

2003-01-01

Each type of an accident in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) causes immediately after the start of the accident variations of physical parameters that are typical for that type of the accident thus enabling its identification. Examples of these parameter are: decrease of reactor coolant system pressure, increase of radiation level in the containment, increase of pressure in the containment. An expert software enabling a fast preliminary identification of the type of the accident in Krsko NPP has been developed. As input data selected typical parameters from Emergency Response Data System (ERDS) of the Krsko NPP are used. Based on these parameters the expert software identifies the type of the accident and also provides the user with appropriate references (past analyses and other documentation of such an accident). The expert software is to be used as a support tool by an expert team that forms in case of an emergency at Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) with the task to determine the cause of the accident, its most probable scenario and the source term. The expert software should provide initial identification of the event, while the final one is still to be made after appropriate assessment of the event by the expert group considering possibility of non-typical events, multiple causes, initial conditions, influences of operators' actions etc. The expert software can be also used as an educational/training tool and even as a simple database of available accident analyses. (author)

Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Expert Elicitation Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coppersmith, Kevin J.; Perman, Roseanne C.

1998-01-01

This report presents results of the Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Expert Elicitation (SZEE) project for Yucca Mountain, Nevada. This project was sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and managed by Geomatrix Consultants, Inc. (Geomatrix), for TRW Environmental Safety Systems, Inc. The DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (referred to as the YMP) is intended to evaluate the suitability of the site for construction of a mined geologic repository for the permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The SZEE project is one of several that involve the elicitation of experts to characterize the knowledge and uncertainties regarding key inputs to the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA). The objective of the current project was to characterize the uncertainties associated with certain key issues related to the saturated zone system in the Yucca Mountain area and downgradient region. An understanding of saturated zone processes is critical to evaluating the performance of the potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. A major goal of the project was to capture the uncertainties involved in assessing the saturated flow processes, including uncertainty in both the models used to represent the physical processes controlling saturated zone flow and transport, and the parameter values used in the models. So that the analysis included a wide range of perspectives, multiple individual judgments were elicited from members of an expert panel. The panel members, who were experts from within and outside the Yucca Mountain project, represented a range of experience and expertise. A deliberate process was followed in facilitating interactions among the experts, in training them to express their uncertainties, and in eliciting their interpretations. The resulting assessments and probability distributions, therefore, provide a reasonable aggregate representation of the knowledge and

BWR recirculation pump diagnostic expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiang, S.C.; Morimoto, C.N.; Torres, M.R.

2004-01-01

At General Electric (GE), an on-line expert system to support maintenance decisions for BWR recirculation pumps for nuclear power plants has been developed. This diagnostic expert system is an interactive on-line system that furnishes diagnostic information concerning BWR recirculation pump operational problems. It effectively provides the recirculation pump diagnostic expertise in the plant control room continuously 24 hours a day. The expert system is interfaced to an on-line monitoring system, which uses existing plant sensors to acquire non-safety related data in real time. The expert system correlates and evaluates process data and vibration data by applying expert rules to determine the condition of a BWR recirculation pump system by applying knowledge based rules. Any diagnosis will be automatically displayed, indicating which pump may have a problem, the category of the problem, and the degree of concern expressed by the validity index and color hierarchy. The rules incorporate the expert knowledge from various technical sources such as plant experience, engineering principles, and published reports. These rules are installed in IF-THEN formats and the resulting truth values are also expressed in fuzzy terms and a certainty factor called a validity index. This GE Recirculation Pump Expert System uses industry-standard software, hardware, and network access to provide flexible interfaces with other possible data acquisition systems. Gensym G2 Real-Time Expert System is used for the expert shell and provides the graphical user interface, knowledge base, and inference engine capabilities. (author)

Response trees and expert systems for nuclear reactor operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, W.R.

1984-02-01

The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission is sponsoring a project performed by EG and G Idaho, Inc., at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) to evaluate different display concepts for use in nuclear reactor control rooms. Included in this project is the evaluation of the response tree computer based decision aid and its associated displays. This report serves as an overview of the response tree methodology and how it has been implemented as a computer based decision aid utilizing color graphic displays. A qualitative assessment of the applicability of the response tree aid in the reactor control room is also made. Experience gained in evaluating the response tree aid is generalized to address a larger category of computer aids, those known as knowledge based expert systems. General characteristics of expert systems are discussed, as well as examples of their application in other domains. A survey of ongoing work on expert systems in the nuclear industry is presented, and an assessment of their potential applicability is made. Finally, recommendations for the design and evaluation of computer based decision aids are presented

Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage. A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansson, Anders [Linkoeping University, Department of Technology and Social Change, SE-58183 Linkoeping (Sweden); Bryngelsson, Maarten [KTH, School of Chemical Sciences, Teknikringen 50, SE-10044 Stockholm (Sweden)

2009-06-15

There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) - e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (1) the function and potential of CCS and (2) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements. (author)

Problematic Aspects of the Use of Expert Systems in Law

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marius Kalinauskas

2011-08-01

intellectual potential in order to gain rights and obligations. They are not a legal subject, so they cannot be responsible for their actions. However, the evolution of intellectualized systems is rather slow but steady (compared to other computer sciences. So there is a possibility that expert system may have the ability to gain their rights and obligations in the future. There is some doubt as to whether intellectualized systems will be able to gain status similar to a human legal subject. Therefore some quasi-subject status may be applied to these systems in the future. Legal expert systems are applied nowadays in legal practice, and they do make mistakes. Who is responsible for these mistakes and who should be held liable for the negative consequences? It’s a hard question to answer, because of many factors which may cause the poor performance of the system. While there is no direct legal responsibility for expert systems, but damage done by their decisions may be real, the situation when there is no responsibility, subjects may occur. Some researchers claim that expert systems help improve the juridical quality of legal process, but the risk of mistake is always there, so intellectualized systems must be used only as advisers, but not as a justice implementation instruments.

Problematic Aspects of the Use of Expert Systems in Law

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marius Kalinauskas

2013-08-01

potential in order to gain rights and obligations. They are not a legal subject, so they cannot be responsible for their actions. However, the evolution of intellectualized systems is rather slow but steady (compared to other computer sciences. So there is a possibility that expert system may have the ability to gain their rights and obligations in the future. There is some doubt as to whether intellectualized systems will be able to gain status similar to a human legal subject. Therefore some quasi-subject status may be applied to these systems in the future. Legal expert systems are applied nowadays in legal practice, and they do make mistakes. Who is responsible for these mistakes and who should be held liable for the negative consequences? It’s a hard question to answer, because of many factors which may cause the poor performance of the system. While there is no direct legal responsibility for expert systems, but damage done by their decisions may be real, the situation when there is no responsibility, subjects may occur. Some researchers claim that expert systems help improve the juridical quality of legal process, but the risk of mistake is always there, so intellectualized systems must be used only as advisers, but not as a justice implementation instruments.

Radiation risk perception: a discrepancy between the experts and the general population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perko, Tanja

2014-01-01

Determining the differences in the perception of risks between experts who are regularly exposed to radiation, and lay people provides important insights into how potential hazards may be effectively communicated to the public. In the present study we examined lay people's (N = 1020) and experts' (N = 332) perception of five different radiological risks: nuclear waste, medical x-rays, natural radiation, an accident at a nuclear installation in general, and the Fukushima accident in particular. In order to link risk perception with risk communication, media reporting about radiation risks is analysed using quantitative and qualitative content analyses. The results showed that experts perceive radiological risks differently from the general public. Experts' perception of medical X-rays and natural radiation is significantly higher than in general population, while for nuclear waste and an accident at a nuclear installation, experts have lower risk perception than the general population. In-depth research is conducted for a group of workers that received an effective dose higher than 0.5 mSv in the year before the study; for this group we identify predictors of risk perception. The results clearly show that mass media don't use the same language as technical experts in addressing radiological risks. The study demonstrates that the discrepancy in risk perception and the communication gap between the experts and the general population presents a big challenge in understanding each other

Classification based upon gene expression data: bias and precision of error rates.

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Ian A; Visscher, Peter M; Mengersen, Kerrie L

2007-06-01

Gene expression data offer a large number of potentially useful predictors for the classification of tissue samples into classes, such as diseased and non-diseased. The predictive error rate of classifiers can be estimated using methods such as cross-validation. We have investigated issues of interpretation and potential bias in the reporting of error rate estimates. The issues considered here are optimization and selection biases, sampling effects, measures of misclassification rate, baseline error rates, two-level external cross-validation and a novel proposal for detection of bias using the permutation mean. Reporting an optimal estimated error rate incurs an optimization bias. Downward bias of 3-5% was found in an existing study of classification based on gene expression data and may be endemic in similar studies. Using a simulated non-informative dataset and two example datasets from existing studies, we show how bias can be detected through the use of label permutations and avoided using two-level external cross-validation. Some studies avoid optimization bias by using single-level cross-validation and a test set, but error rates can be more accurately estimated via two-level cross-validation. In addition to estimating the simple overall error rate, we recommend reporting class error rates plus where possible the conditional risk incorporating prior class probabilities and a misclassification cost matrix. We also describe baseline error rates derived from three trivial classifiers which ignore the predictors. R code which implements two-level external cross-validation with the PAMR package, experiment code, dataset details and additional figures are freely available for non-commercial use from http://www.maths.qut.edu.au/profiles/wood/permr.jsp

Assessing bias associated with geocoding of historical residence in epidemiology research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daikwon Han

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The use of geocoded historical residence as proxy for retrospective assessment of exposure in early life is increasing in epidemiological studies of chronic health outcomes. Dealing with historical residence poses challenges, primarily due to higher uncertainties associated with data collection and processing. A possible source of bias is connected with the exclusion of subjects, who cannot, for various reasons, be geocoded. We evaluated the potential bias that may arise due to incomplete geocoding, using birth residence data collected as part of a population-based case-control study of breast cancer in western New York state. We found that geocoded and non-geocoded populations did not differ in the distribution of most risk factors compared, and that the geocoding status did not modify the spatial patterns of the study populations. However, the results emphasize the need for epidemiological studies to consider the potential biases that may be introduced by geocoding of historical residence when investigating retrospectively chronic disease and early-life exposure.

Ion acceleration in a helicon source due to the self-bias effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wiebold, Matt; Sung, Yung-Ta; Scharer, John E.

2012-01-01

Time-averaged plasma potential differences up to 165 V over several hundred Debye lengths are observed in low pressure (p n i ≈ 7 kT e in some cases. RF power up to 500 W at 13.56 MHz is supplied to a half-turn, double-helix antenna in the presence of a nozzle magnetic field, adjustable up to 1 kG. A retarding potential analyzer (RPA) measures the ion energy distribution function (IEDF) and a swept emissive probe measures the plasma potential. Single and double probes measure the electron density and temperature. Two distinct mode hops, the capacitive-inductive (E-H) and inductive-helicon (H-W) transitions, are identified by jumps in density as RF power is increased. In the capacitive (E) mode, large fluctuations of the plasma potential (V p-p ≳140V, V p-p /V p ≈150%) exist at the RF frequency and its harmonics. The more mobile electrons can easily respond to RF-timescale gradients in the plasma potential whereas the inertially constrained ions cannot, leading to an initial flux imbalance and formation of a self-bias voltage between the source and expansion chambers. In the capacitive mode, the ion acceleration is not well described by an ambipolar relation, while in the inductive and helicon modes the ion acceleration more closely follows an ambipolar relation. The scaling of the potential gradient with the argon flow rate and RF power are investigated, with the largest potential gradients observed for the lowest flow rates in the capacitive mode. The magnitude of the self-bias voltage agrees with that predicted for RF self-bias at a wall. Rapid fluctuations in the plasma potential result in a time-dependent axial electron flux that acts to “neutralize” the accelerated ion population, resulting in a zero net time-averaged current through the acceleration region when an insulating upstream boundary condition is enforced. Grounding the upstream endplate increases the self-bias voltage compared to a floating endplate.

Trendwatch combining expert opinion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hendrix, E.M.T.; Kornelis, M.; Pegge, S.M.; Galen, van M.A.

2006-01-01

In this study, focus is on a systematic way to detect future changes in trends that may effect the dynamics in the agro-food sector, and on the combination of opinions of experts. For the combination of expert opinions, the usefulness of multilevel models is investigated. Bayesian data analysis is

Large-scale galaxy bias

Science.gov (United States)

Jeong, Donghui; Desjacques, Vincent; Schmidt, Fabian

2018-01-01

Here, we briefly introduce the key results of the recent review (arXiv:1611.09787), whose abstract is as following. This review presents a comprehensive overview of galaxy bias, that is, the statistical relation between the distribution of galaxies and matter. We focus on large scales where cosmic density fields are quasi-linear. On these scales, the clustering of galaxies can be described by a perturbative bias expansion, and the complicated physics of galaxy formation is absorbed by a finite set of coefficients of the expansion, called bias parameters. The review begins with a detailed derivation of this very important result, which forms the basis of the rigorous perturbative description of galaxy clustering, under the assumptions of General Relativity and Gaussian, adiabatic initial conditions. Key components of the bias expansion are all leading local gravitational observables, which include the matter density but also tidal fields and their time derivatives. We hence expand the definition of local bias to encompass all these contributions. This derivation is followed by a presentation of the peak-background split in its general form, which elucidates the physical meaning of the bias parameters, and a detailed description of the connection between bias parameters and galaxy (or halo) statistics. We then review the excursion set formalism and peak theory which provide predictions for the values of the bias parameters. In the remainder of the review, we consider the generalizations of galaxy bias required in the presence of various types of cosmological physics that go beyond pressureless matter with adiabatic, Gaussian initial conditions: primordial non-Gaussianity, massive neutrinos, baryon-CDM isocurvature perturbations, dark energy, and modified gravity. Finally, we discuss how the description of galaxy bias in the galaxies' rest frame is related to clustering statistics measured from the observed angular positions and redshifts in actual galaxy catalogs.

Mapping on complex neutrosophic soft expert sets

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Quran, Ashraf; Hassan, Nasruddin

2018-04-01

We introduce the mapping on complex neutrosophic soft expert sets. Further, we investigated the basic operations and other related properties of complex neutrosophic soft expert image and complex neutrosophic soft expert inverse image of complex neutrosophic soft expert sets.

The role of cognitive biases in short-term psychodynamic psychotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kramer, Ueli; Ortega, Diana; Ambresin, Gilles; Despland, Jean-Nicolas; de Roten, Yves

2018-06-01

The concept of biased thinking - or cognitive biases - is relevant to psychotherapy research and clinical conceptualization, beyond cognitive theories. The present naturalistic study aimed to examine the changes in biased thinking over the course of a short-term dynamic psychotherapy (STDP) and to discover potential links between these changes and symptomatic improvement. This study focuses on 32 self-referred patients consulting for Adjustment Disorder according to DSM-IV-TR. The therapists were experienced psychodynamically oriented psychiatrists and psychotherapists. Coding of cognitive biases (using the Cognitive Errors Rating Scale; CERS) was made by external raters based on transcripts of interviews of psychotherapy; the reliability of these ratings on a randomly chosen 24% of all sessions was established. Based on the Symptom Check List SCL-90-R given before and after, the Reliable Change Index (RCI) was used. The assessment of cognitive errors was done at three time points: early (session 4-7), mid-treatment (session 12-17), and close to the end (after session 20) of the treatment. The results showed that the total frequency of cognitive biases was stable over time (p = .20), which was true both for positive and for negative cognitive biases. In exploring the three main subscales of the CERS, we found a decrease in selective abstraction (p = .02) and an increase in personalization (p = .05). A significant link between RCI scores (outcome) and frequency of positive cognitive biases was found, suggesting that biases towards the positive might have a protective function in psychotherapy. Therapists may be attentive to changes in biased thinking across short-term dynamic psychotherapy for adjustment disorder. Therapists may foster the emergence of positive cognitive biases at mid-treatment for adjustment disorder. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; Lans, Ivo A. van der; Frewer, Lynn J.

2012-01-01

Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

Radiological social risk perception: something more than experts/ public discrepancies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prades Lopez, Ana; Gonzalez Reyes, Felisa

1998-01-01

One of the most important concerns of the postindustrial societies lies on the specification and quantification of risk, the Risk Assesment. However, the efforts and resources devoted to such goal have not avoided a growing worry about both the environmental conditions and the situations that potentially threaten it, generating an intense social debate about risks. In this framework, discrepancies between experts and public evaluations risks leaded to the study of social Risk perception. Several theoretical scopes have tried to characterize the phenomenon. A worthy conclusion of the empirical studies carried out on this issue is that all of them, experts and public, are influence by some factors which, in turns, affect their risk perception,. Specially striking is the fact that perception of risk among experts is also modulated by qualitative, personal and social factors. Social Risk Perception, through the process of Communication and Social Participation, has been configurated as a critical tool for both risk prevention and management

Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Nidhi; Fischer, Arnout R. H.; van der Lans, Ivo A.; Frewer, Lynn J.

2012-05-01

Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

Information environment, behavioral biases, and home bias in analysts’ recommendations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Farooq, Omar; Taouss, Mohammed

2012-01-01

Can information environment of a firm explain home bias in analysts’ recommendations? Can the extent of agency problems explain optimism difference between foreign and local analysts? This paper answers these questions by documenting the effect of information environment on home bias in analysts’...

Bias-limited extraction of cosmological parameters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shimon, Meir; Itzhaki, Nissan; Rephaeli, Yoel, E-mail: meirs@wise.tau.ac.il, E-mail: nitzhaki@post.tau.ac.il, E-mail: yoelr@wise.tau.ac.il [School of Physics and Astronomy, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978 (Israel)

2013-03-01

It is known that modeling uncertainties and astrophysical foregrounds can potentially introduce appreciable bias in the deduced values of cosmological parameters. While it is commonly assumed that these uncertainties will be accounted for to a sufficient level of precision, the level of bias has not been properly quantified in most cases of interest. We show that the requirement that the bias in derived values of cosmological parameters does not surpass nominal statistical error, translates into a maximal level of overall error O(N{sup −½}) on |ΔP(k)|/P(k) and |ΔC{sub l}|/C{sub l}, where P(k), C{sub l}, and N are the matter power spectrum, angular power spectrum, and number of (independent Fourier) modes at a given scale l or k probed by the cosmological survey, respectively. This required level has important consequences on the precision with which cosmological parameters are hoped to be determined by future surveys: in virtually all ongoing and near future surveys N typically falls in the range 10{sup 6}−10{sup 9}, implying that the required overall theoretical modeling and numerical precision is already very high. Future redshifted-21-cm observations, projected to sample ∼ 10{sup 14} modes, will require knowledge of the matter power spectrum to a fantastic 10{sup −7} precision level. We conclude that realizing the expected potential of future cosmological surveys, which aim at detecting 10{sup 6}−10{sup 14} modes, sets the formidable challenge of reducing the overall level of uncertainty to 10{sup −3}−10{sup −7}.

Regional brain changes occurring during disobedience to "experts" in financial decision-making.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victoria Y M Suen

Full Text Available It is well recognized that individuals follow "Expert" advice, even when flawed and offers no advantage, and sometimes leads to disadvantages. The neurobiology underlying this is uncertain, and in particular there is an incomplete understanding of which brain regions are most involved when individuals chose to disobey an expert. To study this we examined functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI differences during an investment game where subjects received differentially credible investment advice. Participants (n = 42; 32 males played an investment game, in which they could Buy or Not Buy a sequence of stocks. The better they did, the more money they made. Participants received either "Expert" advice or "Peer" advice. Those receiving Expert advice were told the advice came from a certified financial "Expert". Those receiving Peer Advice were told the advice was that of the student administering the scans, who deliberately dressed and acted casually. Both streams of advice were predetermined and identical. The advice was scripted to be helpful initially, but progressively worse as the task continued, becoming 100% wrong by the end of the task. Subjects receiving Expert Advice followed the advice significantly longer on average, even though this was progressively worse advice. Thus, following Expert advice had poorer consequences for individuals, but this did not dissuade them from continuing to follow the advice. In contrast, when subjects disobeyed Expert advice they exhibited significant anterior cingulate cortex (ACC and superior frontal gyrus activation relative to those disobeying Peer advice. These findings may suggest that in subjects who defy authority, or believe they are doing so (in this case by disobeying an "Expert" there is increased activation of these two brain regions. This may have relevance to several areas of behavior, and the potential role of these two brain regions in regard to disobedience behavior requires further

Is there room for 'development' in developmental models of information processing biases to threat in children and adolescents?

Science.gov (United States)

Field, Andy P; Lester, Kathryn J

2010-12-01

Clinical and experimental theories assume that processing biases in attention and interpretation are a causal mechanism through which anxiety develops. Despite growing evidence that these processing biases are present in children and, therefore, develop long before adulthood, these theories ignore the potential role of child development. This review attempts to place information processing biases within a theoretical developmental framework. We consider whether child development has no impact on information processing biases to threat (integral bias model), or whether child development influences information processing biases and if so whether it does so by moderating the expression of an existing bias (moderation model) or by affecting the acquisition of a bias (acquisition model). We examine the extent to which these models fit with existing theory and research evidence and outline some methodological issues that need to be considered when drawing conclusions about the potential role of child development in the information processing of threat stimuli. Finally, we speculate about the developmental processes that might be important to consider in future research.

Expert Judgement Assessment & SCENT Ontological Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

NICHERSU Iulian

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This study aims to provide insights in the starting point of the Horizon 2020 ECfunded project SCENT (Smart Toolbox for Εngaging Citizens into a People-Centric Observation Web Citizen Observatory (CO in terms of existing infrastructure, existing monitoring systems and some discussion on the existing legal and administrative framework that relate to flood monitoring and management in the area of Danube Delta. The methodology used in this approach is based on expert judgement and ontological analysis, using the information collected from the identified end-users of the SCENT toolbox. In this type of analysis the stages of flood monitoring and management that the experts are involved in are detailed. This is done through an Expert Judgement Assessment analysis. The latter is complemented by a set of Key Performance Indicators that the stakeholders have assessed and/or proposed for the evaluation of the SCENT demonstrations, for the impact of the project and finally for SCENT toolbox performance and usefulness. The second part of the study presents an analysis that attempts to map the interactions between different organizations and components of the existing monitoring systems in the Danube Delta case study. Expert Judgement (EJ allows to gain information from specialists in a specific field through a consultation process with one or more experts that have experience in similar and complementary topics. Expert judgment, expert estimates, or expert opinion are all terms that refer to the contents of the problem; estimates, outcomes, predictions, uncertainties, and their corresponding assumptions and conditions are all examples of expert judgment. Expert Judgement is affected by the process used to gather it. On the other hand, the ontological analysis comes to complete this study, by organizing and presenting the connections behind the flood management and land use systems in the three phases of the flood event.

Eliminating Survivor Bias in Two-stage Instrumental Variable Estimators.

Science.gov (United States)

Vansteelandt, Stijn; Walter, Stefan; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric

2018-07-01

Mendelian randomization studies commonly focus on elderly populations. This makes the instrumental variables analysis of such studies sensitive to survivor bias, a type of selection bias. A particular concern is that the instrumental variable conditions, even when valid for the source population, may be violated for the selective population of individuals who survive the onset of the study. This is potentially very damaging because Mendelian randomization studies are known to be sensitive to bias due to even minor violations of the instrumental variable conditions. Interestingly, the instrumental variable conditions continue to hold within certain risk sets of individuals who are still alive at a given age when the instrument and unmeasured confounders exert additive effects on the exposure, and moreover, the exposure and unmeasured confounders exert additive effects on the hazard of death. In this article, we will exploit this property to derive a two-stage instrumental variable estimator for the effect of exposure on mortality, which is insulated against the above described selection bias under these additivity assumptions.

Capturing Dynamics of Biased Attention: Are New Attention Variability Measures the Way Forward?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne-Wil Kruijt

Full Text Available New indices, calculated on data from the widely used Dot Probe Task, were recently proposed to capture variability in biased attention allocation. We observed that it remains unclear which data pattern is meant to be indicative of dynamic bias and thus to be captured by these indices. Moreover, we hypothesized that the new indices are sensitive to SD differences at the response time (RT level in the absence of bias.Randomly generated datasets were analyzed to assess properties of the Attention Bias Variability (ABV and Trial Level Bias Score (TL-BS indices. Sensitivity to creating differences in 1 RT standard deviation, 2 mean RT, and 3 bias magnitude were assessed. In addition, two possible definitions of dynamic attention bias were explored by creating differences in 4 frequency of bias switching, and 5 bias magnitude in the presence of constant switching.ABV and TL-BS indices were found highly sensitive to increasing SD at the response time level, insensitive to increasing bias, linearly sensitive to increasing bias magnitude in the presence of bias switches, and non-linearly sensitive to increasing the frequency of bias switches. The ABV index was also found responsive to increasing mean response times in the absence of bias.Recently proposed DPT derived variability indices cannot uncouple measurement error from bias variability. Significant group differences may be observed even if there is no bias present in any individual dataset. This renders the new indices in their current form unfit for empirical purposes. Our discussion focuses on fostering debate and ideas for new research to validate the potentially very important notion of biased attention being dynamic.

The World (of Warcraft) through the eyes of an expert.

Science.gov (United States)

Marzouki, Yousri; Dusaucy, Valériane; Chanceaux, Myriam; Mathôt, Sebastiaan

2017-01-01

Negative correlations between pupil size and the tendency to look at salient locations were found in recent studies (e.g., Mathôt et al., 2015). It is hypothesized that this negative correlation might be explained by the mental effort put by participants in the task that leads in return to pupil dilation. Here we present an exploratory study on the effect of expertise on eye-movement behavior. Because there is no available standard tool to evaluate WoW players' expertise, we built an off-game questionnaire testing players' knowledge about WoW and acquired skills through completed raids, highest rated battlegrounds, Skill Points, etc. Experts ( N  = 4) and novices ( N  = 4) in the massively multiplayer online role-playing game World of Warcraft (WoW) viewed 24 designed video segments from the game that differ in regards with their content (i.e, informative locations) and visual complexity (i.e, salient locations). Consistent with previous studies, we found a negative correlation between pupil size and the tendency to look at salient locations (experts, r  =  - .17, p  WoW players than novice players ( Z  =  - 3.3, p  = .0011). This suggests that experts learned to improve control over eye-movement behavior by guiding their eyes towards informative, but potentially low-salient areas of the screen. These findings may contribute to our understanding of what makes an expert an expert.

A law for nuclear experts only

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, H.

1980-01-01

The Federal Ministry of the Interior is preparing an ordinance on expert consultants under the Atomic Energy Act which, among other topics, is to include legal norms for the criteria to be met by experts in terms of non-partisanship, training, capabilities, technical equipment and cooperation in expert organizations of members of various scientific and technical disciplines. A summary of general criteria relating to the qualification, selection and status of experts called in by the legislative and executive branches and by courts of law, which could be organized as a series of guidelines without any original qualities of legal norms, could be recommended in view of the increasing quantitative and qualitative importance of experts. However, passing an ordinance merely fixing and putting into concrete terms the image of an 'expert under the Atomic Energy Act' is intolerable, because the status of scientific and technical experts by far extends beyond the field of nuclear law in our industrial society characterized by a far reaching division of labor. Weak points in the organization of expert services are not confined to technology or nuclear power. Separate rules establishing legal norms are not convincing also for reasons of technology policy and legal policy as well as for those of social psychology and practice. (orig.) 891 HP/orig. 892 MKO [de

Expert opinion on climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nordhaus, W.D.

1994-01-01

This paper discusses the results of an indepth interview survey of experts, both social and natural scientists, about estimates of the economic impact of potential greenhouse warming. The range of estimate impacts was enormous as was the difference between disciplines, particularly mainstream economists and natural scientists. The nineteen survey participants and their affiliations are listed. The general areas discussed in the paper include the following: survey development; estimation of subjective probabilities; description of different scenarios presented; discussion of pertinent answers and general trends in answers including influence of point of view; magnitude of problem; ecosystems; secondary effects; ability to adapt; regional distribution of impacts; nonmarket effects; limits to understanding. 7 figs

Operational expert system applications in Europe

CERN Document Server

Zarri, Gian Piero

1992-01-01

Operational Expert System Applications in Europe describes the representative case studies of the operational expert systems (ESs) that are used in Europe.This compilation provides examples of operational ES that are realized in 10 different European countries, including countries not usually examined in the standard reviews of the field.This book discusses the decision support system using several artificial intelligence tools; expert systems for fault diagnosis on computerized numerical control (CNC) machines; and expert consultation system for personal portfolio management. The failure prob

Testing the Limits of Skill Transfer for Scrabble Experts in Behaviour and Brain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sophia Van Hees

2016-11-01

Full Text Available We investigated transfer of the skills developed by competitive Scrabble players. Previous studies reported superior performance for Scrabble experts on the lexical decision task (LDT, suggesting near transfer of Scrabble skills. Here we investigated the potential for far transfer to a symbol decision task (SDT; in particular, transfer of enhanced long-term working memory for vertically presented stimuli. Our behavioural results showed no evidence for far transfer. Despite years of intensive practice, Scrabble experts were no faster and no more accurate than controls in the SDT. However, our fMRI and EEG data from the SDT suggest that the neural repertoire that Scrabble experts develop supports task performance even outside of the practised domain, in a non-linguistic context. The regions engaged during the SDT were different across groups: controls engaged temporal-frontal regions, whereas Scrabble experts engaged posterior visual and temporal-parietal regions. In Scrabble experts, activity related to Scrabble skill (anagramming scores included regions associated with visual-spatial processing and long-term working memory, and overlapped with regions previously shown to be associated with Scrabble expertise in the near transfer task (LDT. Analysis of source waveforms within these regions showed that participants with higher anagramming scores had larger P300 amplitudes, potentially reflecting greater working memory capacity, or less variability in the participants who perform the task more efficiently. Thus, the neuroimaging results provide evidence of brain transfer in the absence of behavioural transfer, providing new clues about the consequences of long-term training associated with competitive Scrabble expertise.

Training interpretation biases among individuals with body dysmorphic disorder symptoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Premo, Julie E; Sarfan, Laurel D; Clerkin, Elise M

2016-03-01

The current study provided an initial test of a Cognitive Bias Modification for Interpretations (CBM-I) training paradigm among a sample with elevated BDD symptoms (N=86). As expected, BDD-relevant interpretations were reduced among participants who completed a positive (vs. comparison) training program. Results also pointed to the intriguing possibility that modifying biased appearance-relevant interpretations is causally related to changes in biased, socially relevant interpretations. Further, providing support for cognitive behavioral models, residual change in interpretations was associated with some aspects of in vivo stressor responding. However, contrary to expectations there were no significant effects of condition on emotional vulnerability to a BDD stressor, potentially because participants in both training conditions experienced reductions in biased socially-threatening interpretations following training (suggesting that the "comparison" condition was not inert). These findings have meaningful theoretical and clinical implications, and fit with transdiagnostic conceptualizations of psychopathology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust multi-site MR data processing: iterative optimization of bias correction, tissue classification, and registration.

Science.gov (United States)

Young Kim, Eun; Johnson, Hans J

2013-01-01

A robust multi-modal tool, for automated registration, bias correction, and tissue classification, has been implemented for large-scale heterogeneous multi-site longitudinal MR data analysis. This work focused on improving the an iterative optimization framework between bias-correction, registration, and tissue classification inspired from previous work. The primary contributions are robustness improvements from incorporation of following four elements: (1) utilize multi-modal and repeated scans, (2) incorporate high-deformable registration, (3) use extended set of tissue definitions, and (4) use of multi-modal aware intensity-context priors. The benefits of these enhancements were investigated by a series of experiments with both simulated brain data set (BrainWeb) and by applying to highly-heterogeneous data from a 32 site imaging study with quality assessments through the expert visual inspection. The implementation of this tool is tailored for, but not limited to, large-scale data processing with great data variation with a flexible interface. In this paper, we describe enhancements to a joint registration, bias correction, and the tissue classification, that improve the generalizability and robustness for processing multi-modal longitudinal MR scans collected at multi-sites. The tool was evaluated by using both simulated and simulated and human subject MRI images. With these enhancements, the results showed improved robustness for large-scale heterogeneous MRI processing.

An inter-observer agreement study of autofluorescence endoscopy in Barrett's esophagus among expert and non-expert endoscopists.

Science.gov (United States)

Mannath, J; Subramanian, V; Telakis, E; Lau, K; Ramappa, V; Wireko, M; Kaye, P V; Ragunath, K

2013-02-01

Autofluorescence imaging (AFI), which is a "red flag" technique during Barrett's surveillance, is associated with significant false positive results. The aim of this study was to assess the inter-observer agreement (IOA) in identifying AFI-positive lesions and to assess the overall accuracy of AFI. Anonymized AFI and high resolution white light (HRE) images were prospectively collected. The AFI images were presented in random order, followed by corresponding AFI + HRE images. Three AFI experts and 3 AFI non-experts scored images after a training presentation. The IOA was calculated using kappa and accuracy was calculated with histology as gold standard. Seventy-four sets of images were prospectively collected from 63 patients (48 males, mean age 69 years). The IOA for number of AF positive lesions was fair when AFI images were presented. This improved to moderate with corresponding AFI and HRE images [experts 0.57 (0.44-0.70), non-experts 0.47 (0.35-0.62)]. The IOA for the site of AF lesion was moderate for experts and fair for non-experts using AF images, which improved to substantial for experts [κ = 0.62 (0.50-0.72)] but remained at fair for non-experts [κ = 0.28 (0.18-0.37)] with AFI + HRE. Among experts, the accuracy of identifying dysplasia was 0.76 (0.7-0.81) using AFI images and 0.85 (0.79-0.89) using AFI + HRE images. The accuracy was 0.69 (0.62-0.74) with AFI images alone and 0.75 (0.70-0.80) using AFI + HRE among non-experts. The IOA for AF positive lesions is fair to moderate using AFI images which improved with addition of HRE. The overall accuracy of identifying dysplasia was modest, and was better when AFI and HRE images were combined.

RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Robert S. Balch; Ron Broadhead

2005-03-01

Incomplete or sparse data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduce a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results when working with sparse data. State-of-the-art expert exploration tools, relying on a database, and computer maps generated by neural networks and user inputs, have been developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk has been reduced with the use of these properly verified and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tools.'' Through the course of this project, FEE Tools and supporting software were developed for two producing formations in southeast New Mexico. Tools of this type can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In today's oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lack the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, volatile oil prices, and scarcity of domestic exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. The FEE Tools benefit a diverse group in the U.S., allowing a more efficient use of scarce funds, and potentially reducing dependence on foreign oil and providing lower product prices for consumers.

Impact of chlorophyll bias on the tropical Pacific mean climate in an earth system model

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Hyung-Gyu; Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong

2017-12-01

Climate modeling groups nowadays develop earth system models (ESMs) by incorporating biogeochemical processes in their climate models. The ESMs, however, often show substantial bias in simulated marine biogeochemistry which can potentially introduce an undesirable bias in physical ocean fields through biogeophysical interactions. This study examines how and how much the chlorophyll bias in a state-of-the-art ESM affects the mean and seasonal cycle of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST). The ESM used in the present study shows a sizeable positive bias in the simulated tropical chlorophyll. We found that the correction of the chlorophyll bias can reduce the ESM's intrinsic cold SST mean bias in the equatorial Pacific. The biologically-induced cold SST bias is strongly affected by seasonally-dependent air-sea coupling strength. In addition, the correction of chlorophyll bias can improve the annual cycle of SST by up to 25%. This result suggests a possible modeling approach in understanding the two-way interactions between physical and chlorophyll biases by biogeophysical effects.

The UK system of recognising qualified experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bines, W.

2002-01-01

EURATOM Basic Safety Standards (BSS) Directives have long included requirements for the involvement of qualified experts, the definition of which has scarcely changed since at least 1976. The Directive requirement, in the definition of qualified expert,, for competent authorities to recognise the capacity to act as a qualified expert has been interpreted by Member States in widely differing ways, ranging from the minimalist or case by case to the highly detailed and prescriptive. In the United Kingdom (UK), the qualified expert for occupational radiation protection is the radiation protection adviser and the competent authority is the Health and Safety Executive (HSE). The Ionising Radiations Regulations 1985, which largely implemented the 1980 BSS Directive, required an employer to appoint one or more radiation protection advisers for the purpose of advising him as to the observance of these Regulations and other health and safety matters in connection with ionising radiation. The Regulations addressed the question of recognition by forbidding an employer to appoint a person as a radiation protection adviser unless: that person was suitably qualified and experienced; the employer had notified the Health and Safety Executive in writing of the intended appointment at least 28 days in advance, giving the name of the person and particulars of his qualifications and experience and the scope of the advice he would be required to give; and the employer had received from HSE an acknowledgement in writing of the notification. This system allowed HSE to follow up and query any apparently unsuitable potential appointments while applying a light overall administrative touch. The Approved Code of Practice supporting the Regulations included advice on the qualifications, experience and qualities that the employer should look for in a suitable radiation protection adviser

Evaluating survey quality in health services research: a decision framework for assessing nonresponse bias.

Science.gov (United States)

Halbesleben, Jonathon R B; Whitman, Marilyn V

2013-06-01

To address the issue of nonresponse as problematic and offer appropriate strategies for assessing nonresponse bias. A review of current strategies used to assess the quality of survey data and the challenges associated with these strategies is provided along with appropriate post-data collection techniques that researchers should consider. Response rates are an incomplete assessment of survey data quality, and quick reactions to response rate should be avoided. Based on a five-question decision making framework, we offer potential ways to assess nonresponse bias, along with a description of the advantages and disadvantages to each. It is important that the quality of survey data be considered to assess the relative contribution to the literature of a given study. Authors and funding agencies should consider the potential effects of nonresponse bias both before and after survey administration and report the results of assessments of nonresponse bias in addition to response rates. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Measuring Program Quality, Part 2: Addressing Potential Cultural Bias in a Rater Reliability Exam

Science.gov (United States)

Richer, Amanda; Charmaraman, Linda; Ceder, Ineke

2018-01-01

Like instruments used in afterschool programs to assess children's social and emotional growth or to evaluate staff members' performance, instruments used to evaluate program quality should be free from bias. Practitioners and researchers alike want to know that assessment instruments, whatever their type or intent, treat all people fairly and do…

Lay and Expert Perceptions of Planetary Protection

Science.gov (United States)

Race, Margaret S.; MacGregor, Donald G.; Slovic, Paul

2000-01-01

As space scientists and engineers plan new missions to Mars and other planets in our solar system, they will face critical questions about the potential for biological contamination of planetary surfaces. In a society that places ever-increasing importance on the role of public involvement in science and technology policy, questions about risks of biological contamination will be examined and debated in the media, and will lead to the formation of public perceptions of planetary-contamination risks. These perceptions will, over time, form an important input to the development of space policy. Previous research in public and expert perceptions of technological risks and hazards has shown that many of the problems faced by risk-management organizations are the result of differing perceptions of risk (and risk management) between the general public and scientific and technical experts. These differences manifest themselves both as disagreements about the definition (and level) of risk associated with a scientific, technological or industrial enterprise, and as distrust about the ability of risk-management organizations (both public and private) to adequately protect people's health and safety. This report presents the results of a set of survey studies designed to reveal perceptions of planetary exploration and protection from a wide range of respondents, including both members of the general public and experts in the life sciences. The potential value of this research lies in what it reveals about perceptions of risk and benefit that could improve risk-management policies and practices. For example, efforts to communicate with the public about Mars sample return missions could benefit from an understanding of the specific concerns that nonscientists have about such a mission by suggesting areas of potential improvement in public education and information. Assessment of both public and expert perceptions of risk can also be used to provide an advanced signal of

Bias voltage induced resistance switching effect in single-molecule magnets’ tunneling junction

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhengzhong; Jiang, Liang

2014-09-01

An electric-pulse-induced reversible resistance change effect in a molecular magnetic tunneling junction, consisting of a single-molecule magnet (SMM) sandwiched in one nonmagnetic and one ferromagnetic electrode, is theoretically investigated. By applying a time-varying bias voltage, the SMM's spin orientation can be manipulated with large bias voltage pulses. Moreover, the different magnetic configuration at high-resistance/low-resistance states can be ‘read out’ by utilizing relative low bias voltage. This device scheme can be implemented with current technologies (Khajetoorians et al 2013 Science 339 55) and has potential application in molecular spintronics and high-density nonvolatile memory devices.

Bias voltage induced resistance switching effect in single-molecule magnets' tunneling junction.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhengzhong; Jiang, Liang

2014-09-12

An electric-pulse-induced reversible resistance change effect in a molecular magnetic tunneling junction, consisting of a single-molecule magnet (SMM) sandwiched in one nonmagnetic and one ferromagnetic electrode, is theoretically investigated. By applying a time-varying bias voltage, the SMM's spin orientation can be manipulated with large bias voltage pulses. Moreover, the different magnetic configuration at high-resistance/low-resistance states can be 'read out' by utilizing relative low bias voltage. This device scheme can be implemented with current technologies (Khajetoorians et al 2013 Science 339 55) and has potential application in molecular spintronics and high-density nonvolatile memory devices.

Expert robots in nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

1987-01-01

Expert robots enhance a safety and operations in nuclear plants. E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligence, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

Expert robots in nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

1987-01-01

Expert robots will enhance safety and operations in nuclear plants. E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligent, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

Evaluating codon bias perspective in barbiturase gene using ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Abdullah

2014-01-08

Jan 8, 2014 ... along with codon usage was done to reveal dynamics of gene evolution and expression ... analysis is a potent approach for detecting mutations, selection methods and finding rationale of biased and unbiased gene changes and hence, evolutionary ... in the perception of the molecular basics plus potential.

Bond and Equity Home Bias and Foreign Bias: an International Study

OpenAIRE

VanPée, Rosanne; De Moor, Lieven

2012-01-01

In this paper we explore tentatively and formally the differences between bond and equity home bias and foreign bias based on one large scale dataset including developed and emerging markets for the period 2001 to 2010. We set the stage by tentatively and formally linking the diversion of bond and equity home bias in OECD countries to the increasing public debt issues under the form of government bonds i.e. the supply-driven argument. Unlike Fidora et al. (2007) we do not find that exchange r...

Expert database system for quality control

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Anne J.; Li, Zhi-Cheng

1993-09-01

There are more competitors today. Markets are not homogeneous they are fragmented into increasingly focused niches requiring greater flexibility in the product mix shorter manufacturing production runs and above allhigher quality. In this paper the author identified a real-time expert system as a way to improve plantwide quality management. The quality control expert database system (QCEDS) by integrating knowledge of experts in operations quality management and computer systems use all information relevant to quality managementfacts as well as rulesto determine if a product meets quality standards. Keywords: expert system quality control data base

Improved Electron Yield and Spin-Polarization from III-V Photocathodes Via Bias Enhanced Carrier Drift

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mulhollan, Gregory A.; Bierman, John; Brachmann, Axel; Clendenin, James E.; Garwin, Edward; Kirby, Robert; Luh, Dah-An

2005-01-01

Spin-polarized electrons are commonly used in high energy physics. Future work will benefit from greater polarization. Polarizations approaching 90% have been achieved at the expense of yield. The primary paths to higher polarization are material design and electron transport. Our work addresses the latter. Photoexcited electrons may be preferentially emitted or suppressed by an electric field applied across the active region. We are tuning this forward bias for maximum polarization and yield, together with other parameters, e.g., doping profile. Preliminary measurements have been carried out on bulk and thin film GaAs. As expected, the yield change far from the bandgap is quite large for bulk material. The bias is applied to the bottom (non-activated) side of the cathode so that the accelerating potential as measured with respect to the ground potential chamber walls is unchanged for different front-to-back cathode bias values. The size of the bias to cause an appreciable effect is rather small reflecting the low drift kinetic energy in the zero bias case

Expert systems in process control systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wittig, T.

1987-01-01

To illustrate where the fundamental difference between expert systems in classical diagnosis and in industrial control lie, the work of process control instrumentation is used as an example for the job of expert systems. Starting from the general process of problem-solving, two classes of expert systems can be defined accordingly. (orig.) [de

Ion acceleration in a helicon source due to the self-bias effect

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wiebold, Matt; Sung, Yung-Ta; Scharer, John E. [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 (United States)

2012-05-15

Time-averaged plasma potential differences up to 165 V over several hundred Debye lengths are observed in low pressure (p{sub n} < 1 mTorr) expanding argon plasmas in the Madison Helicon eXperiment (MadHeX). The potential gradient leads to ion acceleration greater than that predicted by ambipolar expansion, exceeding E{sub i} Almost-Equal-To 7 kT{sub e} in some cases. RF power up to 500 W at 13.56 MHz is supplied to a half-turn, double-helix antenna in the presence of a nozzle magnetic field, adjustable up to 1 kG. A retarding potential analyzer (RPA) measures the ion energy distribution function (IEDF) and a swept emissive probe measures the plasma potential. Single and double probes measure the electron density and temperature. Two distinct mode hops, the capacitive-inductive (E-H) and inductive-helicon (H-W) transitions, are identified by jumps in density as RF power is increased. In the capacitive (E) mode, large fluctuations of the plasma potential (V{sub p-p} Greater-Than-Or-Equivalent-To 140V, V{sub p-p}/V{sub p} Almost-Equal-To 150%) exist at the RF frequency and its harmonics. The more mobile electrons can easily respond to RF-timescale gradients in the plasma potential whereas the inertially constrained ions cannot, leading to an initial flux imbalance and formation of a self-bias voltage between the source and expansion chambers. In the capacitive mode, the ion acceleration is not well described by an ambipolar relation, while in the inductive and helicon modes the ion acceleration more closely follows an ambipolar relation. The scaling of the potential gradient with the argon flow rate and RF power are investigated, with the largest potential gradients observed for the lowest flow rates in the capacitive mode. The magnitude of the self-bias voltage agrees with that predicted for RF self-bias at a wall. Rapid fluctuations in the plasma potential result in a time-dependent axial electron flux that acts to 'neutralize' the accelerated ion

Deceleration of probe beam by stage bias potential improves resolution of serial block-face scanning electron microscopic images.

Science.gov (United States)

Bouwer, James C; Deerinck, Thomas J; Bushong, Eric; Astakhov, Vadim; Ramachandra, Ranjan; Peltier, Steven T; Ellisman, Mark H

2017-01-01

Serial block-face scanning electron microscopy (SBEM) is quickly becoming an important imaging tool to explore three-dimensional biological structure across spatial scales. At probe-beam-electron energies of 2.0 keV or lower, the axial resolution should improve, because there is less primary electron penetration into the block face. More specifically, at these lower energies, the interaction volume is much smaller, and therefore, surface detail is more highly resolved. However, the backscattered electron yield for metal contrast agents and the backscattered electron detector sensitivity are both sub-optimal at these lower energies, thus negating the gain in axial resolution. We found that the application of a negative voltage (reversal potential) applied to a modified SBEM stage creates a tunable electric field at the sample. This field can be used to decrease the probe-beam-landing energy and, at the same time, alter the trajectory of the signal to increase the signal collected by the detector. With decelerated low landing-energy electrons, we observed that the probe-beam-electron-penetration depth was reduced to less than 30 nm in epoxy-embedded biological specimens. Concurrently, a large increase in recorded signal occurred due to the re-acceleration of BSEs in the bias field towards the objective pole piece where the detector is located. By tuning the bias field, we were able to manipulate the trajectories of the  primary and secondary electrons, enabling the spatial discrimination of these signals using an advanced ring-type BSE detector configuration or a standard monolithic BSE detector coupled with a blocking aperture.

Use of expert judgement in NUREG-1150

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz, N.R.; Wheeler, T.A.; Breeding, R.J.; Hora, S.; Meyer, M.A.; Kenney, R.L.

1991-01-01

The explicit expert judgment process used in NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Plants', is discussed in this paper. The main steps of the process are described, including selection of issues and experts, elicitation training, presentation of issues to the experts, preparation of issue analyses by the experts, discussion of issue analyses and elicitation, and recomposition and aggregation of results. To demonstrate the application of the expert judgment process to NUREG-1150, two issues are summarized: one from the accident frequency analysis, and one from the accident progression analysis. Recommendations and insights are provided to improve the use of explicit expert judgment in complex technical issues. (orig.)

The expert surgical assistant. An intelligent virtual environment with multimodal input.

Science.gov (United States)

Billinghurst, M; Savage, J; Oppenheimer, P; Edmond, C

1996-01-01

Virtual Reality has made computer interfaces more intuitive but not more intelligent. This paper shows how an expert system can be coupled with multimodal input in a virtual environment to provide an intelligent simulation tool or surgical assistant. This is accomplished in three steps. First, voice and gestural input is interpreted and represented in a common semantic form. Second, a rule-based expert system is used to infer context and user actions from this semantic representation. Finally, the inferred user actions are matched against steps in a surgical procedure to monitor the user's progress and provide automatic feedback. In addition, the system can respond immediately to multimodal commands for navigational assistance and/or identification of critical anatomical structures. To show how these methods are used we present a prototype sinus surgery interface. The approach described here may easily be extended to a wide variety of medical and non-medical training applications by making simple changes to the expert system database and virtual environment models. Successful implementation of an expert system in both simulated and real surgery has enormous potential for the surgeon both in training and clinical practice.

Weight bias in work settings - a qualitative review.

Science.gov (United States)

Giel, Katrin Elisabeth; Thiel, Ansgar; Teufel, Martin; Mayer, Jochen; Zipfel, Stephan

2010-02-01

Studies have repeatedly demonstrated the influence of physical appearance on behavior and treatment of individuals in work settings. A high proportion of obese individuals in the USA have reported perceived discrimination in the work place due to their body weight. The present review examines the specific kind, context and extent of a weight bias in work settings. We performed a literature search in the scientific databases PubMed and PsychINFO to identify studies which have investigated aspects of a potential weight bias in the occupational context. There is evidence from self-report data, surveys, and laboratory research for a weight bias in five aspects of work life. Evidence shows that obesity is a general barrier to employment, certain professions and professional success. Obese individuals are at higher risk of encountering stereotypes concerning their work-related qualities and for general unequal treatment in the work place. Current evidence reveals a weight bias in several areas in the work place. The ecological validity of results is limited due to the predominant reliance on laboratory studies with student samples. Field studies are needed to examine weight-based discrimination in actual work environments as well as to uncover underlying mechanisms. Copyright 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Expert Evidence and International Criminal Justice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Appazov, Artur

The book is a comprehensive narration of the use of expertise in international criminal trials offering reflection on standards concerning the quality and presentation of expert evidence. It analyzes and critiques the rules governing expert evidence in international criminal trials...... and the strategies employed by counsel and courts relying upon expert evidence and challenges that courts face determining its reliability. In particular, the author considers how the procedural and evidentiary architecture of international criminal courts and tribunals influences the courts' ability to meaningfully...... incorporate expert evidence into the rational fact-finding process. The book provides analysis of the unique properties of expert evidence as compared with other forms of evidence and the challenges that these properties present for fact-finding in international criminal trials. It draws conclusions about...

Expert system for compressor maintenance support; Sistema especialista para apoio a manutencao de compressores

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Silva, Jonny Carlos da [Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), Florianopolis, SC (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Mecanica; Caletti, Luciano [KEOHPS - Knowledge Engineering on Hydraulic and Pneumatic System, SC (Brazil); Luna, Paulo de T.M. [Universidade Regional de Blumenau - FURB, SC (Brazil)

2004-07-01

The performance of critical machines in industrial processes, such as compressors used in industrial plants, is fundamental for overall company operation. In this context, it becomes strategic the application of methods and tools to support the operation and maintenance of the most relevant process equipment. Among these computational tools are the Expert Systems, which aim to emulate the decision making process of human experts in a specific knowledge domain. In Oil and Gas domain, an example of such tools is the SEGRED project, which combines expert system techniques with dynamic simulation of transport and distribution natural gas networks. The SECOMP project, Expert System for Compressor Maintenance, is considered a spin-off of the SEGRED. Its objective is to develop an expert system to support maintenance activities, aiming to increase reliability, improve performance and reduce maintenance and operational costs. This article presents the first phase of the SECOMP project, which is related to the development of an expert system prototype for corrective maintenance of natural gas reciprocating compressors. The paper discusses the context of this knowledge domain, the prototype development and its potential contribution in an industrial environment. (author)

Veterinary Expert Opinion on Potential Drivers and Opportunities for Changing Antimicrobial Usage Practices in Livestock in Denmark, Portugal, and Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luís P. Carmo

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Reducing antimicrobial use (AMU in livestock is requested by Public Health authorities. Ideally, this should be achieved without jeopardizing production output or animal health and welfare. Thus, efficient measures must be identified and developed to target drivers of AMU. Veterinarians play a central role in the identification and implementation of such efficient interventions. Sixty-seven veterinarians with expertise in livestock production in Denmark, Portugal, and Switzerland participated in an expert opinion study aimed at investigating experiences and opinions of veterinarians about the driving forces and practices related to AMU in the main livestock sectors (broiler, dairy cattle, fattening/veal calf, and pig industry of the aforementioned countries. Opinions on potential factors influencing the choice of antimicrobials and opportunities to reduce AMU were collected. Antibiograms are seldom used, mainly due to the time lag between testing and obtaining the results. The perceived percentage of treatment failures varied between countries and livestock sectors; however, little changes were reported over time (2005−2015. The animal health problems of each livestock sector most frequently leading to AMU did not vary substantially between countries. Mandatory official interventions (i.e., binding measures applied by national or international authorities were highlighted as having the biggest impact on AMU. There was a variation in the experts’ opinion regarding feasibility and impact of interventions both between countries and livestock sectors. Nevertheless, improved biosecurity and education of veterinarians frequently received high scores. Most veterinarians believed that AMU can be reduced. The median potential reduction estimates varied from 1% in Swiss broilers to 50% in Portuguese broilers and veal/fattening calves in all countries. We hypothesize that the differences in views could be related to disease epidemiology, animal

Smokers exhibit biased neural processing of smoking and affective images.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliver, Jason A; Jentink, Kade G; Drobes, David J; Evans, David E

2016-08-01

There has been growing interest in the role that implicit processing of drug cues can play in motivating drug use behavior. However, the extent to which drug cue processing biases relate to the processing biases exhibited to other types of evocative stimuli is largely unknown. The goal of the present study was to determine how the implicit cognitive processing of smoking cues relates to the processing of affective cues using a novel paradigm. Smokers (n = 50) and nonsmokers (n = 38) completed a picture-viewing task, in which participants were presented with a series of smoking, pleasant, unpleasant, and neutral images while engaging in a distractor task designed to direct controlled resources away from conscious processing of image content. Electroencephalogram recordings were obtained throughout the task for extraction of event-related potentials (ERPs). Smokers exhibited differential processing of smoking cues across 3 different ERP indices compared with nonsmokers. Comparable effects were found for pleasant cues on 2 of these indices. Late cognitive processing of smoking and pleasant cues was associated with nicotine dependence and cigarette use. Results suggest that cognitive biases may extend across classes of stimuli among smokers. This raises important questions about the fundamental meaning of cognitive biases, and suggests the need to consider generalized cognitive biases in theories of drug use behavior and interventions based on cognitive bias modification. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Modifications of plasma edge electric field and confinement properties by limiter biasing on the KT-5C tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hui Gao; Kan Zhai; Yizhi Wen; Shude Wan; Guiding Wang; Changxun Yu

1995-01-01

Experiments using a biased multiblock limiter in the KT-5C tokamak show that positive biasing is more effective than negative biasing in modifying the edge electric field, suppressing fluctuations and improving plasma confinement. The biasing effect varies with the limiter area, the toroidal magnetic field and the biasing voltage. By positive biasing, the edge profiles of the plasma potential, the electron temperature and the density become steeper, resulting in a reduced edge particle flux, an increased global particle confinement time and lower fluctuation levels of the edge plasma. (author)

THE GHOST IN THE MACHINE? THE VALUE OF EXPERT ADVICE IN THE PRODUCTION OF EVIDENCE-BASED GUIDANCE: A MIXED METHODS STUDY OF THE NICE INTERVENTIONAL PROCEDURES PROGRAMME.

Science.gov (United States)

Oyebode, Oyinlola; Patrick, Hannah; Walker, Alexander; Campbell, Bruce; Powell, John

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the aspects of expert advice that decision makers find most useful in the development of evidence-based guidance and to identify the characteristics of experts providing the most useful advice. First, semi-structured interviews were conducted with seventeen members of the Interventional Procedures Advisory Committee of the UK's National Institute of Health and Care Excellence. Interviews examined the usefulness of expert advice during guidance development. Transcripts were analyzed inductively to identify themes. Second, data were extracted from 211 experts' questionnaires for forty-one consecutive procedures. Usefulness of advice was scored using an index developed through the qualitative work. Associations between usefulness score and characteristics of the expert advisor were investigated using univariate and multivariate analyses. Expert opinion was seen as a valued complement to empirical evidence, providing context and tacit knowledge unavailable in published literature, but helpful for interpreting it. Interviewees also valued advice on the training and experience required to perform a procedure, on patient selection criteria and the place of a procedure within a clinical management pathway. Limitations of bias in expert opinion were widely acknowledged and skepticism expressed regarding the anecdotal nature of advice on safety or efficacy outcomes. Quantitative analysis demonstrated that the most useful advice was given by clinical experts with direct personal experience of the procedure, particularly research experience. Evidence-based guidance production is often characterized as a rational, pipeline process. This ignores the valuable role that expert opinion plays in guidance development, complementing and supporting the interpretation of empirical data.

Camera trap placement and the potential for bias due to trails and other features.

Science.gov (United States)

Kolowski, Joseph M; Forrester, Tavis D

2017-01-01

Camera trapping has become an increasingly widespread tool for wildlife ecologists, with large numbers of studies relying on photo capture rates or presence/absence information. It is increasingly clear that camera placement can directly impact this kind of data, yet these biases are poorly understood. We used a paired camera design to investigate the effect of small-scale habitat features on species richness estimates, and capture rate and detection probability of several mammal species in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, USA. Cameras were deployed at either log features or on game trails with a paired camera at a nearby random location. Overall capture rates were significantly higher at trail and log cameras compared to their paired random cameras, and some species showed capture rates as much as 9.7 times greater at feature-based cameras. We recorded more species at both log (17) and trail features (15) than at their paired control cameras (13 and 12 species, respectively), yet richness estimates were indistinguishable after 659 and 385 camera nights of survey effort, respectively. We detected significant increases (ranging from 11-33%) in detection probability for five species resulting from the presence of game trails. For six species detection probability was also influenced by the presence of a log feature. This bias was most pronounced for the three rodents investigated, where in all cases detection probability was substantially higher (24.9-38.2%) at log cameras. Our results indicate that small-scale factors, including the presence of game trails and other features, can have significant impacts on species detection when camera traps are employed. Significant biases may result if the presence and quality of these features are not documented and either incorporated into analytical procedures, or controlled for in study design.

Inductive acquisition of expert knowledge

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muggleton, S.H.

1986-01-01

Expert systems divide neatly into two categories: those in which (1) the expert decisions result in changes to some external environment (control systems), and (2) the expert decisions merely seek to describe the environment (classification systems). Both the explanation of computer-based reasoning and the bottleneck (Feigenbaum, 1979) of knowledge acquisition are major issues in expert-systems research. The author contributed to these areas of research in two ways: 1. He implemented an expert-system shell, the Mugol environment, which facilitates knowledge acquisition by inductive inference and provides automatic explanation of run-time reasoning on demand. RuleMaster, a commercial version of this environment, was used to advantage industrially in the construction and testing of two large classification systems. 2. He investigated a new techniques called 'sequence induction' that can be used in construction of control systems. Sequence induction is based on theoretical work in grammatical learning. He improved existing grammatical learning algorithms as well as suggesting and theoretically characterizing new ones. These algorithms were successfully applied to acquisition of knowledge for a diverse set of control systems, including inductive construction of robot plans and chess end-gam strategies.

Science and environmental policy-making : bias-proofing the assessment process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McKitrick, R.

2005-01-01

Politicians and policy-makers appeal to the concept of peer-reviewed research as a foundation for decision-making. However, peer review does not typically guarantee that data and methods are open to scrutiny or that results are reproducible. This paper argued that additional checks and balances are needed for scientific assessment reports when they are being used to justify major policy investments. The need for such mechanisms was examined with reference to the debate in climate change, which allowed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to downplay fundamental scientific uncertainties in research in order to claim that the 1990s were the warmest decade of the millennium. Two mechanisms were proposed to address biases in expert assessment panels. The creation of a scientific audit or permanent agency was recommended that would act independently of assessment panels to identify key studies influencing panel decisions to ensure that data are publicly available and that statistical methods are fully described and correctly implemented. The creation of a counterweight panel was also advised, which would then be convened to prepare the strongest possible counter argument to the conclusions of an assessment panel. It was concluded that, given the far-reaching implications of policy decisions that are based on expert assessments, audits and counterweight panels should be integrated into the process by which science is used to guide decision-making. 17 refs., 4 figs

Expert system in PNC, 6

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsubota, Koji

1990-01-01

The application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a tool for mineral exploration started only a decade ago. The systems that have been reported are in the most cases the expert systems that can simulate the decision of the experts or help numerical calculation for more reasonable and/or fast decision making. PNC started the development of the expert system for uranium exploration in 1983. Since then, KOGITO, a expert system to find the favorability of the target area, has been developed. Two years ago, the second generation development, Intelligent Research Environment and Support System, IRESS was initiated aiming at the establishment of a total support system for a project evaluation. We will review our effort for development of our system and introduce the application of the Data directed Numerical method as a new tool to Ahnemland area in Australia. (author)

Electrophysiology of blunted emotional bias in psychopathic personality.

Science.gov (United States)

Carolan, Patrick L; Jaspers-Fayer, Fern; Asmaro, Deyar T; Douglas, Kevin S; Liotti, Mario

2014-01-01

Diminished emotional capacity is a core characteristic of psychopathic personality. We examined behavioral and electrophysiological differences in attentional bias to emotional material in 34 healthy individuals rated high or low in psychopathic traits using the short form of the Psychopathic Personality Inventory-Revised (18 high-trait, 16 low-trait). While performing an emotional Stroop task, high-trait participants displayed reduced emotional modulation of the late positive potential (LPP, 400-600 ms), and early anterior positivity (EAP, 200-300 ms) amplitudes. Results suggest blunted bias to affective content in psychopathic personality, characterized by diminished early capture to emotional salience (EAP) and dampened cognitive emotional processing (LPP). Copyright © 2013 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

A potential gender bias in assessing quality of life - a standard gamble experiment among university students.

Science.gov (United States)

Obaidi, Leath Al; Mahlich, Jörg

2015-01-01

There are several methodologies that can be used for evaluating patients' perception of their quality of life. Most commonly, utilities are directly elicited by means of either the time-trade-off or the standard-gamble method. In both methods, risk attitudes determine the quality of life values. Quality of life values among 31 Austrian undergraduate students were elicited by means of the standard gamble approach. The impact of several variables such as gender, side job, length of study, and living arrangements on the quality of life were identified using different types of regression techniques (ordinary least squares, generalized linear model, Betafit). Significant evidence was found that females are associated with a higher quality of life in all specifications of our estimations. The observed gender differences in quality of life can be attributed to a higher degree of risk aversion of women. A higher risk aversion leads to a higher valuation of given health states and a potential gender bias in health economic evaluations. This result could have implications for health policy planners when it comes to budget allocation decisions.

Evidence of Cognitive Bias in Decision Making Around Implantable-Cardioverter Defibrillators: A Qualitative Framework Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Matlock, Daniel D; Jones, Jacqueline; Nowels, Carolyn T; Jenkins, Amy; Allen, Larry A; Kutner, Jean S

2017-11-01

Studies have demonstrated that patients with primary prevention implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) often misunderstand the ICD. Advances in behavioral economics demonstrate that some misunderstandings may be due to cognitive biases. We aimed to explore the influence of cognitive bias on ICD decision making. We used a qualitative framework analysis including 9 cognitive biases: affect heuristic, affective forecasting, anchoring, availability, default effects, halo effects, optimism bias, framing effects, and state dependence. We interviewed 48 patients from 4 settings in Denver. The majority were male (n = 32). Overall median age was 61 years. We found frequent evidence for framing, default, and halo effects; some evidence of optimism bias, affect heuristic, state dependence, anchoring and availability bias; and little or no evidence of affective forecasting. Framing effects were apparent in overestimation of benefits and downplaying or omitting potential harms. We found evidence of cognitive bias in decision making for ICD implantation. The majority of these biases appeared to encourage ICD treatment. Published by Elsevier Inc.

RF plasma-driven hydrogen permeation through a biased iron membrane

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banno, T.; Waelbroeck, F.; Winter, J.

1984-01-01

The steady-state RF plasma-driven hydrogen permeation through an electrically biased iron membrane has been investigated as a function of the bias potential Vsub(M) for membrane temperatures in the range of 150-400 0 C. Vsub(M) has been gradually increased positively from the floating potential of the membrane. The permeation flux decreases when Vsub(M) increases at low voltages: positive hydrogen ions are repelled. The membrane temperature does not influence this effect measurably. The permeation flux starts to increase when Vsub(M) is raised higher, i.e. when energetic electrons strike the surface. This phenomenon shows a pronounced temperature dependence - the enhancement is largest for the lowest temperatures. The effect is interpreted in terms of an electron-induced dissociation of hydrogen molecules on the membrane surface. (orig.)

Partners for development: Expert assistant in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daud, A.H.

1996-01-01

This report reviews the expert assignments received by Malaysia under the TC programme over the 1980-95 time period. It provides data about the type of assignments and expert services, the institutions receiving the experts, and duration of the assignment. Also reviewed is the process of requesting and implementing an expert assignment in Malaysia, as well as the country's related objectives and plans

Expert system technology for nondestructive waste assay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.

1998-01-01

Nondestructive assay waste characterization data generated for use in the National TRU Program must be of known and demonstrable quality. Each measurement is required to receive an independent technical review by a qualified expert. An expert system prototype has been developed to automate waste NDA data review of a passive/active neutron drum counter system. The expert system is designed to yield a confidence rating regarding measurement validity. Expert system rules are derived from data in a process involving data clustering, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms. Expert system performance is assessed against confidence assignments elicited from waste NDA domain experts. Performance levels varied for the active, passive shielded, and passive system assay modes of the drum counter system, ranging from 78% to 94% correct classifications

Contextual Factors for Finding Similar Experts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hofmann, Katja; Balog, Krisztian; Bogers, Toine

2010-01-01

-seeking models, are rarely taken into account. In this article, we extend content-based expert-finding approaches with contextual factors that have been found to influence human expert finding. We focus on a task of science communicators in a knowledge-intensive environment, the task of finding similar experts......, given an example expert. Our approach combines expertise-seeking and retrieval research. First, we conduct a user study to identify contextual factors that may play a role in the studied task and environment. Then, we design expert retrieval models to capture these factors. We combine these with content......-based retrieval models and evaluate them in a retrieval experiment. Our main finding is that while content-based features are the most important, human participants also take contextual factors into account, such as media experience and organizational structure. We develop two principled ways of modeling...

Towards quantum signatures in a swept-bias Josephson junction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Losert, Harald; Vogel, Karl; Schleich, Wolfgang P. [Institut fuer Quantenphysik and Center for Integrated Quantum Science and Technology (IQST), Universitaet Ulm, D-89069 Ulm (Germany)

2016-07-01

Josephson junctions are one of the best examples for the observation of macroscopic quantum tunneling. The phase difference in a current-biased Josephson junction behaves like the position of a particle in a tilted washboard potential. The escape of this phase-particle corresponds to the voltage switching of the associated junction. Quantum mechanically, the escape from the washboard potential can be explained as tunneling from the ground state, or an excited state. However, it has been shown, that in the case of periodic driving the experimental data for quantum mechanical key features, e.g. Rabi oscillations or energy level quantization, can be reproduced by a completely classical description. Motivated by this discussion, we investigate a swept-bias Josephson junction in the case of a large critical current. In particular, we contrast the switching current distributions resulting from a quantum mechanical and classical description of the time evolution.

Unintended Side Effects of Digital Transition: Perspectives of Japanese Experts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masahiro Sugiyama

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The core of the digital transition is the representation of all kinds of real-world entities and processes and an increasing number of cognitive processes by digital information and algorithms on computers. These allow for seemingly unlimited storage, operation, retrieval, and transmission capacities that make digital tools economically available for all domains of society and empower human action, particularly combined with real-world interfaces such as displays, robots, sensors, 3D printers, etc. Digital technologies are general-purpose technologies providing unprecedented potential benefits for sustainability. However, they will bring about a multitude of potential unintended side effects, and this demands a transdisciplinary discussion on unwanted societal changes as well as a shift in science from analog to digital modeling and structure. Although social discourse has begun, the topical scope and regional coverage have been limited. Here, we report on an expert roundtable on digital transition held in February 2017 in Tokyo, Japan. Drawing on a variety of disciplinary backgrounds, our discussions highlight the importance of cultural contexts and the need to bridge local and global conversations. Although Japanese experts did mention side effects, their focus was on how to ensure that AI and robots could coexist with humans. Such a perspective is not well appreciated everywhere outside Japan. Stakeholder dialogues have already begun in Japan, but greater efforts are needed to engage a broader collection of experts in addition to stakeholders to broaden the social debate.

Expert system aids transport regulation users

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheshire, R.D.; Straw, R.J.

1990-01-01

During late 1984 the IAEA Regulations were identified as an area of application for an expert system adviser which could offer many advantages. Over the following year some simple tests were carried out to examine its feasibility, but TRANAID did not get underway until 1986 when British Nuclear Fuels (BNFL) Corporate Management services were engaged on the product. By this time a greater choice of suitable software, in the form of expert system shells, had become available. After a number of trial systems the shell Leonardo was finally adopted for the final system. In order for TRANAID to emulate the expert it was necessary to spend time extracting and documenting the expert knowledge. This was a matter of investigating how the regulations are used and was achieved by a series of meetings including opportunity for the computer specialists to interview the regulations experts. There are several benefits in having an expert system advisor in this area. It is useful to both experienced and inexperienced users of regulations. For those who are learning to use the regulations it is an excellent training aid. For those who know the regulations but use them infrequently it can save time and provide a valuable reassurance. The adviser has enabled the expert user's know how to be captured and to be made widely available to those with less experience. (author)

Biases in categorization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Das-Smaal, E.A.

1990-01-01

On what grounds can we conclude that an act of categorization is biased? In this chapter, it is contended that in the absence of objective norms of what categories actually are, biases in categorization can only be specified in relation to theoretical understandings of categorization. Therefore, the

Cooperative expert system reasoning for waste remediations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohn, S.J.; Pennock, K.A.; Franklin, A.L.

1991-12-01

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is facing a large task in completing Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies (RI/FS) for hazardous waste sites across the nation. One of the primary objectives of an RI/FS is the specification of viable sequences of technology treatment trains which can provide implementable site solutions. We present a methodology which integrates expert system technology within an object-oriented framework to create a cooperative reasoning system designed to provide a comprehensive list of these implementable solutions. The system accomplishes its goal of specifying technology trains by utilizing a ''team'' of expert system objects. The system distributes the problem solving among the individual expert objects, and then coordinates the combination of individual decisions into a joint solution. Each expert object possesses the knowledge of an expert in a particular technology. An expert object can examine the parameters and characteristics of the waste site, seek information and support from other expert objects, and then make decisions concerning its own applicability. This methodology has at least two primary benefits. First, the creation of multiple expert objects provides a more direct mapping from the actual process to a software system, making the system easier to build. Second, the distribution of the inferencing among a number of loosely connected expert objects allows for a more robust and maintainable final product

Large biases in regression-based constituent flux estimates: causes and diagnostic tools

Science.gov (United States)

Hirsch, Robert M.

2014-01-01

It has been documented in the literature that, in some cases, widely used regression-based models can produce severely biased estimates of long-term mean river fluxes of various constituents. These models, estimated using sample values of concentration, discharge, and date, are used to compute estimated fluxes for a multiyear period at a daily time step. This study compares results of the LOADEST seven-parameter model, LOADEST five-parameter model, and the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) model using subsampling of six very large datasets to better understand this bias problem. This analysis considers sample datasets for dissolved nitrate and total phosphorus. The results show that LOADEST-7 and LOADEST-5, although they often produce very nearly unbiased results, can produce highly biased results. This study identifies three conditions that can give rise to these severe biases: (1) lack of fit of the log of concentration vs. log discharge relationship, (2) substantial differences in the shape of this relationship across seasons, and (3) severely heteroscedastic residuals. The WRTDS model is more resistant to the bias problem than the LOADEST models but is not immune to them. Understanding the causes of the bias problem is crucial to selecting an appropriate method for flux computations. Diagnostic tools for identifying the potential for bias problems are introduced, and strategies for resolving bias problems are described.

Cognitive Dissonance, Confirmatory Bias and Inadequate Information Processing: Evidence from Experimental Auctions

OpenAIRE

Cao, Ying; Just, David R.; Wansink, Brian

2014-01-01

Using psychological terms such as cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias, this study reveals how individual consumers inadequately process (food safety) information, pay limited attention to signals, and make purchase decisions that are bias towards their initial choices. While it is expected that reading extra information about potential risk associated with the food decreases consumers' willingness to pay (WTP), the magnitude of the impact varies across individuals. In general, consumer...

Biased Agonism of Endogenous Opioid Peptides at the μ-Opioid Receptor.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Georgina L; Lane, J Robert; Coudrat, Thomas; Sexton, Patrick M; Christopoulos, Arthur; Canals, Meritxell

2015-08-01

Biased agonism is having a major impact on modern drug discovery, and describes the ability of distinct G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) ligands to activate different cell signaling pathways, and to result in different physiologic outcomes. To date, most studies of biased agonism have focused on synthetic molecules targeting various GPCRs; however, many of these receptors have multiple endogenous ligands, suggesting that "natural" bias may be an unappreciated feature of these GPCRs. The μ-opioid receptor (MOP) is activated by numerous endogenous opioid peptides, remains an attractive therapeutic target for the treatment of pain, and exhibits biased agonism in response to synthetic opiates. The aim of this study was to rigorously assess the potential for biased agonism in the actions of endogenous opioids at the MOP in a common cellular background, and compare these to the effects of the agonist d-Ala2-N-MePhe4-Gly-ol enkephalin (DAMGO). We investigated activation of G proteins, inhibition of cAMP production, extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1 and 2 phosphorylation, β-arrestin 1/2 recruitment, and MOP trafficking, and applied a novel analytical method to quantify biased agonism. Although many endogenous opioids displayed signaling profiles similar to that of DAMGO, α-neoendorphin, Met-enkephalin-Arg-Phe, and the putatively endogenous peptide endomorphin-1 displayed particularly distinct bias profiles. These may represent examples of natural bias if it can be shown that they have different signaling properties and physiologic effects in vivo compared with other endogenous opioids. Understanding how endogenous opioids control physiologic processes through biased agonism can reveal vital information required to enable the design of biased opioids with improved pharmacological profiles and treat diseases involving dysfunction of the endogenous opioid system. Copyright © 2015 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

Fire Effects, Education, and Expert Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Robert E. Martin

1987-01-01

Predicting the effects of fires in the year 2000 and beyond will be enhanced by the use of expert systems. Although our predictions may have broad confidence limits, expert systems should help us to improve the predictions and to focus on the areas where improved knowledge is most needed. The knowledge of experts can be incorporated into previously existing knowledge...

Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

OpenAIRE

Chernysheva, Tatiana Yurievna; Korchuganova, Mariya Anatolievna; Borisov, V. V.; Minkov, S. L.

2016-01-01

Revealing experts' competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

Factors influencing societal response of nanotechnology: an expert stakeholder analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gupta, Nidhi, E-mail: nidhi.gupta@wur.nl; Fischer, Arnout R. H., E-mail: arnout.fischer@wur.nl; Lans, Ivo A. van der, E-mail: Ivo.vanderLans@wur.nl [Wageningen University, Marketing and Consumer Behaviour Group (Netherlands); Frewer, Lynn J., E-mail: lynn.frewer@newcastle.ac.uk [Newcastle University, School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development (United Kingdom)

2012-05-15

Nanotechnology can be described as an emerging technology and, as has been the case with other emerging technologies such as genetic modification, different socio-psychological factors will potentially influence societal responses to its development and application. These factors will play an important role in how nanotechnology is developed and commercialised. This article aims to identify expert opinion on factors influencing societal response to applications of nanotechnology. Structured interviews with experts on nanotechnology from North West Europe were conducted using repertory grid methodology in conjunction with generalized Procrustes analysis to examine the psychological constructs underlying societal uptake of 15 key applications of nanotechnology drawn from different areas (e.g. medicine, agriculture and environment, chemical, food, military, sports, and cosmetics). Based on expert judgement, the main factors influencing societal response to different applications of nanotechnology will be the extent to which applications are perceived to be beneficial, useful, and necessary, and how 'real' and physically close to the end-user these applications are perceived to be by the public.

Quality of reporting and risk of bias in therapeutic otolaryngology publications.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaper, N M; Swart, K M A; Grolman, W; Van Der Heijden, G J M G

2018-01-01

High-quality trials have the potential to influence clinical practice. Ten otolaryngology journals with the highest 2011 impact factors were selected and publications from 2010 were extracted. From all medical journals, the 20 highest impact factor journals were selected, and publications related to otolaryngology for 2010 and 2011 were extracted. For all publications, the reporting quality and risk of bias were assessed. The impact factor was 1.8-2.8 for otolaryngology journals and 6.0-101.8 for medical journals. Of 1500 otolaryngology journal articles, 262 were therapeutic studies; 94 had a high reporting quality and 5 a low risk of bias. Of 10 967 medical journal articles, 76 were therapeutic studies; 57 had a high reporting quality and 8 a low risk of bias. Reporting quality was high for 45 per cent of otolaryngology-related publications and 9 per cent met quality standards. General journals had higher impact factors than otolaryngology journals. Reporting quality was higher and risk of bias lower in general journals than in otolaryngology journals. Nevertheless, 76 per cent of articles in high impact factor journals carried a high risk of bias. Better reported and designed studies are the goal, with less risk of bias, especially in otolaryngology journals.

Quantifying lead-time bias in risk factor studies of cancer through simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jansen, Rick J; Alexander, Bruce H; Anderson, Kristin E; Church, Timothy R

2013-11-01

Lead-time is inherent in early detection and creates bias in observational studies of screening efficacy, but its potential to bias effect estimates in risk factor studies is not always recognized. We describe a form of this bias that conventional analyses cannot address and develop a model to quantify it. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data form the basis for estimates of age-specific preclinical incidence, and log-normal distributions describe the preclinical duration distribution. Simulations assume a joint null hypothesis of no effect of either the risk factor or screening on the preclinical incidence of cancer, and then quantify the bias as the risk-factor odds ratio (OR) from this null study. This bias can be used as a factor to adjust observed OR in the actual study. For this particular study design, as average preclinical duration increased, the bias in the total-physical activity OR monotonically increased from 1% to 22% above the null, but the smoking OR monotonically decreased from 1% above the null to 5% below the null. The finding of nontrivial bias in fixed risk-factor effect estimates demonstrates the importance of quantitatively evaluating it in susceptible studies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Experts' perceptions on the entrepreneurial framework conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Correia, Aldina; e Silva, Eliana Costa; Lopes, I. Cristina; Braga, Alexandra; Braga, Vitor

2017-11-01

The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor is a large scale database for internationally comparative entrepreneurship. This database includes information of more than 100 countries concerning several aspects of entrepreneurship activities, perceptions, conditions, national and regional policy, among others, in two main sources of primary data: the Adult Population Survey and the National Expert Survey. In the present work the National Expert Survey datasets for 2011, 2012 and 2013 are analyzed with the purpose of studying the effects of different type of entrepreneurship expert specialization on the perceptions about the Entrepreneurial Framework Conditions (EFCs). The results of the multivariate analysis of variance for the 2013 data show significant differences of the entrepreneurship experts when compared the 2011 and 2012 surveys. For the 2013 data entrepreneur experts are less favorable then most of the other experts to the EFCs.

Cognitive bias measurement and social anxiety disorder: Correlating self-report data and attentional bias

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Miloff

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Social anxiety disorder (SAD and attentional bias are theoretically connected in cognitive behavioral therapeutic models. In fact, there is an emerging field focusing on modifying attentional bias as a stand-alone treatment. However, it is unclear to what degree these attentional biases are present before commencing treatment. The purpose of this study was to measure pre-treatment attentional bias in 153 participants diagnosed with SAD using a home-based Internet version of the dot-probe paradigm. Results showed no significant correlation for attentional bias (towards or away from negative words or faces and the self-rated version of the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale (LSAS-SR. However, two positive correlations were found for the secondary measures Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7 (GAD-7 and Patient Health Questionnaire 9 (PHQ-9. These indicated that those with elevated levels of anxiety and depression had a higher bias towards negative faces in neutral–negative and positive–negative valence combinations, respectively. The unreliability of the dot-probe paradigm and home-based Internet delivery are discussed to explain the lack of correlations between LSAS-SR and attentional bias. Changes to the dot-probe task are suggested that could improve reliability.

Robust Trust in Expert Testimony

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Dahlman

2015-05-01

Full Text Available The standard of proof in criminal trials should require that the evidence presented by the prosecution is robust. This requirement of robustness says that it must be unlikely that additional information would change the probability that the defendant is guilty. Robustness is difficult for a judge to estimate, as it requires the judge to assess the possible effect of information that the he or she does not have. This article is concerned with expert witnesses and proposes a method for reviewing the robustness of expert testimony. According to the proposed method, the robustness of expert testimony is estimated with regard to competence, motivation, external strength, internal strength and relevance. The danger of trusting non-robust expert testimony is illustrated with an analysis of the Thomas Quick Case, a Swedish legal scandal where a patient at a mental institution was wrongfully convicted for eight murders.

Expert systems in clinical microbiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

2011-07-01

This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the "big three": Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically.

Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

Science.gov (United States)

Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

2014-01-01

Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

Sampling bias in an internet treatment trial for depression.

Science.gov (United States)

Donkin, L; Hickie, I B; Christensen, H; Naismith, S L; Neal, B; Cockayne, N L; Glozier, N

2012-10-23

Internet psychological interventions are efficacious and may reduce traditional access barriers. No studies have evaluated whether any sampling bias exists in these trials that may limit the translation of the results of these trials into real-world application. We identified 7999 potentially eligible trial participants from a community-based health cohort study and invited them to participate in a randomized controlled trial of an online cognitive behavioural therapy programme for people with depression. We compared those who consented to being assessed for trial inclusion with nonconsenters on demographic, clinical and behavioural indicators captured in the health study. Any potentially biasing factors were then assessed for their association with depression outcome among trial participants to evaluate the existence of sampling bias. Of the 35 health survey variables explored, only 4 were independently associated with higher likelihood of consenting-female sex (odds ratio (OR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.19), speaking English at home (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.15-1.90) higher education (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.46-1.92) and a prior diagnosis of depression (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.22-1.55). The multivariate model accounted for limited variance (C-statistic 0.6) in explaining participation. These four factors were not significantly associated with either the primary trial outcome measure or any differential impact by intervention arm. This demonstrates that, among eligible trial participants, few factors were associated with the consent to participate. There was no indication that such self-selection biased the trial results or would limit the generalizability and translation into a public or clinical setting.

Ensemble stacking mitigates biases in inference of synaptic connectivity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brendan Chambers

2018-03-01

Full Text Available A promising alternative to directly measuring the anatomical connections in a neuronal population is inferring the connections from the activity. We employ simulated spiking neuronal networks to compare and contrast commonly used inference methods that identify likely excitatory synaptic connections using statistical regularities in spike timing. We find that simple adjustments to standard algorithms improve inference accuracy: A signing procedure improves the power of unsigned mutual-information-based approaches and a correction that accounts for differences in mean and variance of background timing relationships, such as those expected to be induced by heterogeneous firing rates, increases the sensitivity of frequency-based methods. We also find that different inference methods reveal distinct subsets of the synaptic network and each method exhibits different biases in the accurate detection of reciprocity and local clustering. To correct for errors and biases specific to single inference algorithms, we combine methods into an ensemble. Ensemble predictions, generated as a linear combination of multiple inference algorithms, are more sensitive than the best individual measures alone, and are more faithful to ground-truth statistics of connectivity, mitigating biases specific to single inference methods. These weightings generalize across simulated datasets, emphasizing the potential for the broad utility of ensemble-based approaches. Mapping the routing of spikes through local circuitry is crucial for understanding neocortical computation. Under appropriate experimental conditions, these maps can be used to infer likely patterns of synaptic recruitment, linking activity to underlying anatomical connections. Such inferences help to reveal the synaptic implementation of population dynamics and computation. We compare a number of standard functional measures to infer underlying connectivity. We find that regularization impacts measures

The Covariation between Parental and Expert Evaluations of Early Language Skills

Science.gov (United States)

Björn, Piia M.; Kakkuri, Irma; Leppänen, Paavo H. T.

2014-01-01

This study investigated the potential interrelationship between parental (maternal) and expert assessments of the expressive and receptive language skills of 12- to 18-month-old children. The language activities of 27 children were monitored by their mothers (MCDI scale: Lyytinen, 2000. "Varhaisen kommunikaation ja kielen kehityksen…

An abnormal event advisory expert system prototype for reactor operators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hance, D.C.

1989-01-01

Nuclear plant operators must respond correctly during abnormal conditions in the presence of dynamic and potentially overwhelming volumes of information. For this reason, considerable effort has been directed toward the development of nuclear plant operator aids using artificial intelligence techniques. The objective of such systems is to diagnose abnormal conditions within the plant, possibly predict consequences, and advise the operators of corrective actions in a timely manner. The objective of the work is the development of a prototype expert system to diagnose abnormal events at a nuclear power plant and advise plant operators of the event and applicable procedures in an on-line mode. The major difference between this effort and previous work is the use of plant operating procedures as a knowledge source and as an integral part of the advice provided by the expert system. The acceptance by utilities of expert systems as operator aids requires that such systems be compatible with the regulatory environment and provide economic benefits. For this reason, commercially viable operator aid systems developed in the near future must complement existing plant procedures rather than reach beyond them in a revolutionary manner. A knowledge source is the resource providing facts and relationships that are coded into the expert system program. In this case, the primary source of knowledge is a set of selected abnormal operating procedures for a modern Westinghouse pressurized water reactor

Threat bias, not negativity bias, underpins differences in political ideology.

Science.gov (United States)

Lilienfeld, Scott O; Latzman, Robert D

2014-06-01

Although disparities in political ideology are rooted partly in dispositional differences, Hibbing et al.'s analysis paints with an overly broad brush. Research on the personality correlates of liberal-conservative differences points not to global differences in negativity bias, but to differences in threat bias, probably emanating from differences in fearfulness. This distinction bears implications for etiological research and persuasion efforts.

The Selective Advantage of Synonymous Codon Usage Bias in Salmonella.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gerrit Brandis

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The genetic code in mRNA is redundant, with 61 sense codons translated into 20 different amino acids. Individual amino acids are encoded by up to six different codons but within codon families some are used more frequently than others. This phenomenon is referred to as synonymous codon usage bias. The genomes of free-living unicellular organisms such as bacteria have an extreme codon usage bias and the degree of bias differs between genes within the same genome. The strong positive correlation between codon usage bias and gene expression levels in many microorganisms is attributed to selection for translational efficiency. However, this putative selective advantage has never been measured in bacteria and theoretical estimates vary widely. By systematically exchanging optimal codons for synonymous codons in the tuf genes we quantified the selective advantage of biased codon usage in highly expressed genes to be in the range 0.2-4.2 x 10-4 per codon per generation. These data quantify for the first time the potential for selection on synonymous codon choice to drive genome-wide sequence evolution in bacteria, and in particular to optimize the sequences of highly expressed genes. This quantification may have predictive applications in the design of synthetic genes and for heterologous gene expression in biotechnology.

Empathy costs: Negative emotional bias in high empathisers.

Science.gov (United States)

Chikovani, George; Babuadze, Lasha; Iashvili, Nino; Gvalia, Tamar; Surguladze, Simon

2015-09-30

Excessive empathy has been associated with compassion fatigue in health professionals and caregivers. We investigated an effect of empathy on emotion processing in 137 healthy individuals of both sexes. We tested a hypothesis that high empathy may underlie increased sensitivity to negative emotion recognition which may interact with gender. Facial emotion stimuli comprised happy, angry, fearful, and sad faces presented at different intensities (mild and prototypical) and different durations (500ms and 2000ms). The parameters of emotion processing were represented by discrimination accuracy, response bias and reaction time. We found that higher empathy was associated with better recognition of all emotions. We also demonstrated that higher empathy was associated with response bias towards sad and fearful faces. The reaction time analysis revealed that higher empathy in females was associated with faster (compared with males) recognition of mildly sad faces of brief duration. We conclude that although empathic abilities were providing for advantages in recognition of all facial emotional expressions, the bias towards emotional negativity may potentially carry a risk for empathic distress. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expert Witness

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Adele

formal rules of evidence apply) to help it understand the issues of a case and ... statements on medical expert witness by professional representative bodies in .... determining the size of the financial settlement that may have to be made to the.

Expert system for estimating LWR plutonium production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandquist, G.M.

1988-01-01

An Artificial Intelligence-Expert System called APES (Analysis of Proliferation by Expert System) has been developed and tested to permit a non proliferation expert to evaluate the capability and capacity of a specified LWR reactor and PUREX reprocessing system for producing and separating plutonium even when system information may be limited and uncertain. APES employs an expert system coded in LISP and based upon an HP-RL (Hewlett Packard-Representational Language) Expert System Shell. The user I/O interface communicates with a blackboard and the knowledge base which contains the quantitative models required to describe the reactor, selected fission product production and radioactive decay processes, Purex reprocessing and ancillary knowledge

Expert Systems in Reference Services.

Science.gov (United States)

Roysdon, Christine, Ed.; White, Howard D., Ed.

1989-01-01

Eleven articles introduce expert systems applications in library and information science, and present design and implementation issues of system development for reference services. Topics covered include knowledge based systems, prototype development, the use of artificial intelligence to remedy current system inadequacies, and an expert system to…

Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the expert and non-expert opinion in fire risk in buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanea, D.M.; Jagtman, H.M.; Alphen, L.L.M.M. van; Ale, B.J.M.

2010-01-01

Expert judgment procedure is a method very often used in the area of risk assessments of complex systems or processes to fill in quantitative data. Although it has been proved to be a very reliable source of information when no other data are available, the choice of experts is always questioned. When the available data are limited, the seed questions cover only partially the domains of expertise, which may cause problems. Expertise is assessed not covering the full object of study but only those topics for which seed questions can be formulated. The commonly used quantitative analysis of an expert judgment exercise is combined with a qualitative analysis. The latter adds more insights to the relation between the assessor's field and statistical knowledge and their performance in an expert judgment. In addition the qualitative analysis identifies different types of seed questions. Three groups of assessors with different levels of statistical and domain knowledge are studied. The quantitative analysis shows no differences between field experts and non-experts and no differences between having advanced statistical knowledge or not. The qualitative analysis supports these findings. In addition it is found that especially technical questions are answered with larger intervals. Precaution is required when using seed questions for which the real value can be calculated, which was the case for one of the seed questions.

20 CFR 405.10 - Medical and Vocational Expert System.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Medical and Vocational Expert System. 405.10... Vocational Expert System. (a) General. The Medical and Vocational Expert System is comprised of the Medical... Vocational Expert System. (3) Experts who provide evidence at your request. Experts whom you ask to provide...

Photovoltaic Bias Generator

Science.gov (United States)

2018-02-01

Department of the Army position unless so designated by other authorized documents. Citation of manufacturer’s or trade names does not constitute an... Interior view of the photovoltaic bias generator showing wrapped-wire side of circuit board...3 Fig. 4 Interior view of the photovoltaic bias generator showing component side of circuit board

[The CSI effect and its impact on the perceptions of forensic science experts' work].

Science.gov (United States)

Stojer, Joanna

2011-01-01

The issue that has been analyzed in this work is the potential effect of crime films and TV series on people's perceptions of forensic medicine and science, and especially on the forming of expectations towards forensic science experts. This syndrome is being called the "CSI effect" after the popular franchise Crime Scene Investigation (CSI). Questionnaire surveys that have been conducted included "experts": 50 experts in various specialities, 77 prosecutors, 119 judges, 64 lay judges, 161 police staff and 80 members of general public. In-depth interviews have been conducted with 20 police staff, and also a focus group has been carried out with 15 law students. In the opinion of the respondents, people's perceptions and expectations of forensic science--as it can be observed during criminal trials--are largely inflated by the entertainment media. Among the surveyed persons, the category that declares watching crime series most rarely, is forensic science experts. Around half of the surveyed experts pointed out to excessive expectations towards they work instigated by TV crime series. The most common expectations towards forensic medicine experts are: immediate conclusiveness of post mortem examinations (going as far as indicating the cause of death at the crime scene), precision of death time estimation and a routine use of sophisticated methods known from TV.

Poor Agreement Among Expert Witnesses in Bile Duct Injury Malpractice Litigation An Expert Panel Survey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Reuver, Philip R.; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G. W.; Gevers, Sjef K. M.; Gouma, Dirk J.

2008-01-01

Objective: To determine the inter-rater agreement of expert witness testimonies in bile duct injury malpractice litigation. Background Data: Malpractice litigation is an increasing concern in modem surgical practice. As most of the lawyers are not educated in medicine, expert witnesses are asked to

Poor agreement among expert witnesses in bile duct injury malpractice litigation: an expert panel survey.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reuver, P.R. de; Dijkgraaf, M.G.; Gevers, S.K.; Gouma, D.J.; Bleichrodt, R.P.; Cuesta, M.A.; Erp, W.F. van; Gerritsen, J.; Hesselink, E.J.; Laarhoven, C.J.H.M. van; Lange, J. de; Obertop, H.; Stassen, L.P.; Terpstra, O.T.; Tilanus, H.W.; Vroonhoven, T.J.; Wit, L. de

2008-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine the inter-rater agreement of expert witness testimonies in bile duct injury malpractice litigation. BACKGROUND DATA: Malpractice litigation is an increasing concern in modern surgical practice. As most of the lawyers are not educated in medicine, expert witnesses are asked to

The own-age bias in face memory is unrelated to differences in attention--evidence from event-related potentials.

Science.gov (United States)

Neumann, Markus F; End, Albert; Luttmann, Stefanie; Schweinberger, Stefan R; Wiese, Holger

2015-03-01

Participants are more accurate at remembering faces from their own relative to a different age group (the own-age bias, or OAB). A recent socio-cognitive account has suggested that differential allocation of attention to old versus young faces underlies this phenomenon. Critically, empirical evidence for a direct relationship between attention to own- versus other-age faces and the OAB in memory is lacking. To fill this gap, we tested the roles of attention in three different experimental paradigms, and additionally analyzed event-related brain potentials (ERPs). In Experiment 1, we compared the learning of old and young faces during focused versus divided attention, but revealed similar OABs in subsequent memory for both attention conditions. Similarly, manipulating attention during learning did not differentially affect the ERPs elicited by young versus old faces. In Experiment 2, we examined the repetition effects from task-irrelevant old and young faces presented under varying attentional loads on the N250r ERP component as an index of face recognition. Independent of load, the N250r effects were comparable for both age categories. Finally, in Experiment 3 we measured the N2pc as an index of attentional selection of old versus young target faces in a visual search task. The N2pc was not significantly different for the young versus the old target search conditions, suggesting similar orientations of attention to either face age group. Overall, we propose that the OAB in memory is largely unrelated to early attentional processes. Our findings therefore contrast with the predictions from socio-cognitive accounts on own-group biases in recognition memory, and are more easily reconciled with expertise-based models.

Bias-correction in vector autoregressive models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

2014-01-01

We analyze the properties of various methods for bias-correcting parameter estimates in both stationary and non-stationary vector autoregressive models. First, we show that two analytical bias formulas from the existing literature are in fact identical. Next, based on a detailed simulation study......, we show that when the model is stationary this simple bias formula compares very favorably to bootstrap bias-correction, both in terms of bias and mean squared error. In non-stationary models, the analytical bias formula performs noticeably worse than bootstrapping. Both methods yield a notable...... improvement over ordinary least squares. We pay special attention to the risk of pushing an otherwise stationary model into the non-stationary region of the parameter space when correcting for bias. Finally, we consider a recently proposed reduced-bias weighted least squares estimator, and we find...

An expert system for turbogenerator diagnostics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bessenyei, Z.; Tomcsanyi, T.; Toth, Z.; Laczay, I.

1992-01-01

In 1990, an expert system for turbo-generator diagnostics (EST-D) was installed at the 3rd and 4th units of the Paks NPP (Hungary). The expert system is strongly integrated to the ARGUS II vibration monitoring and diagnostics system. The system works on IBM PC AT. The VEIKI's and the NPP's human experts were interviewed to fill up the knowledgebase. The system is able to identify 13 different faults of the parts of a turbogenerator. The knowledgebase consists of ca 200 rules. The rules were built in and the system was verified and validated using a model of the turbines and using the experiences gathered with ARGUS II during the last 3 years. The maintenance personnel is authorized to modify and/or extend the knowledgebase. The input data for evaluation come from measured vibration patterns produced by the ARGUS II system, database of events, and maintenance data input by the maintenance personnel. The expert system is based on the modified GENESYS 2.1 shell (developed by SZAMALK, Hungary). Some limitations from PC application were eliminated, and a new, independent explanation module and man-machine interface were developed. Using this man-machine interface, one of the basic goals of the expert system developments was achieved: the human experts contribution is not necessary for diagnoses. The operator of the diagnostics system is able to produce the reports of diagnoses. Of course the interface allows the human experts to see the diagnoses through. It should be mentioned, at the beginning of 1991, we installed a similar expert system at the 1st 1000 MW WWER type unit of the Kalinin NPP (Soviet Union). In this paper, the operation of the EST-D, the man-machine interface and the operational experiences of the first 4 months work are explained. 2 refs., 14 figs

Sex-biased phoretic mite load on two seaweed flies: Coelopa frigida and Coelopa pilipes.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilburn, Andre S; Stewart, Katie M; Edward, Dominic A

2009-12-01

Two hypotheses explain male-biased parasitism. Physiological costs of male sexually selected characteristics can reduce immunocompetence. Alternatively, ecological differences could generate male-biased parasitism. One method of comparing the importance of the two theories is to investigate patterns of phoresy, which are only likely to be generated by ecological rather than immunological differences between the sexes. Here we studied the pattern of phoresy of the mite, Thinoseius fucicola, on two species of seaweed fly hosts, Coelopa frigida and Coelopa pilipes. We found a highly male-biased pattern of phoresy of T. fucicola on both species. These are the first reported instances of sex-biased phoresy in a solely phoretic parasite. We also show the first two cases of size-biased phoresy. We suggest that ecological factors, particularly, male mate searching, generated male biased patterns of phoresy. We highlight the potential importance of studies of phoresy in determining the relative roles of the immunocompetence and ecological theories in generating male-biased parasitism. We suggest that more studies of patterns of phoresy are carried out to allow detailed comparisons with patterns of parasitism.

Bias versus bias: harnessing hindsight to reveal paranormal belief change beyond demand characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Kane, Michael J; Core, Tammy J; Hunt, R Reed

2010-04-01

Psychological change is difficult to assess, in part because self-reported beliefs and attitudes may be biased or distorted. The present study probed belief change, in an educational context, by using the hindsight bias to counter another bias that generally plagues assessment of subjective change. Although research has indicated that skepticism courses reduce paranormal beliefs, those findings may reflect demand characteristics (biases toward desired, skeptical responses). Our hindsight-bias procedure circumvented demand by asking students, following semester-long skepticism (and control) courses, to recall their precourse levels of paranormal belief. People typically remember themselves as previously thinking, believing, and acting as they do now, so current skepticism should provoke false recollections of previous skepticism. Given true belief change, therefore, skepticism students should have remembered themselves as having been more skeptical than they were. They did, at least about paranormal topics that were covered most extensively in the course. Our findings thus show hindsight to be useful in evaluating cognitive change beyond demand characteristics.

Bias in the exchange of arguments: the case of scientists' evaluation of lay viewpoints on GM food.

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Cuppen, Eefje; Hisschemøller, Matthijs; Midden, Cees

2009-09-01

Most perspectives on public participation share the notion that dialogues should be open, allowing participants to articulate and evaluate different views and knowledge claims. We hypothesize that participants' evaluation of claims may be biased because participants have a preference for a particular type or source of a claim. This would hamper an open dialogue. We tested the effect of three variables on scientists' evaluation of claims of the general public about GM food: the claim's favorability towards GM food, the phrasing, and the source of the claim. Results are based on a survey-experiment among 73 biotechnology-scientists. Biased processing occurred when scientists evaluated claims. Claims that were corresponding with the attitude of the scientists and that were phrased in a cognitive way were evaluated more positively than claims that were contrasting the attitude of the scientists and that were phrased in an affective way. Contrary to our expectation, scientists evaluated claims of the public more positively than claims of experts.

Facial expression judgments support a socio-relational model, rather than a negativity bias model of political psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Vigil, Jacob M; Strenth, Chance

2014-06-01

Self-reported opinions and judgments may be more rooted in expressive biases than in cognitive processing biases, and ultimately operate within a broader behavioral style for advertising the capacity - versus the trustworthiness - dimension of human reciprocity potential. Our analyses of facial expression judgments of likely voters are consistent with this thesis, and directly contradict one major prediction from the authors' "negativity-bias" model.

Selection bias in population-based cancer case-control studies due to incomplete sampling frame coverage.

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, Matthew C; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Gangnon, Ronald E; Nieto, F Javier; Newcomb, Polly A; Palta, Mari

2012-06-01

Increasing numbers of individuals are choosing to opt out of population-based sampling frames due to privacy concerns. This is especially a problem in the selection of controls for case-control studies, as the cases often arise from relatively complete population-based registries, whereas control selection requires a sampling frame. If opt out is also related to risk factors, bias can arise. We linked breast cancer cases who reported having a valid driver's license from the 2004-2008 Wisconsin women's health study (N = 2,988) with a master list of licensed drivers from the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WDOT). This master list excludes Wisconsin drivers that requested their information not be sold by the state. Multivariate-adjusted selection probability ratios (SPR) were calculated to estimate potential bias when using this driver's license sampling frame to select controls. A total of 962 cases (32%) had opted out of the WDOT sampling frame. Cases age <40 (SPR = 0.90), income either unreported (SPR = 0.89) or greater than $50,000 (SPR = 0.94), lower parity (SPR = 0.96 per one-child decrease), and hormone use (SPR = 0.93) were significantly less likely to be covered by the WDOT sampling frame (α = 0.05 level). Our results indicate the potential for selection bias due to differential opt out between various demographic and behavioral subgroups of controls. As selection bias may differ by exposure and study base, the assessment of potential bias needs to be ongoing. SPRs can be used to predict the direction of bias when cases and controls stem from different sampling frames in population-based case-control studies.

A Systematic Review of Attention Biases in Opioid, Cannabis, Stimulant Use Disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Melvyn; Ying, Jiangbo; Wing, Tracey; Song, Guo; Fung, Daniel S S; Smith, Helen

2018-06-01

Background : Opiates, cannabis, and amphetamines are highly abused, and use of these substances are prevalent disorders. Psychological interventions are crucial given that they help individuals maintain abstinence following a lapse or relapse into substance use. Advances in experimental psychology have suggested that automatic attention biases might be responsible for relapse. Prior reviews have provided evidence for the presence of these biases in addictive disorders and the effectiveness of bias modification. However, the prior studies are limited, as they failed to include trials involving participants with these prevalent addictive disorders or have failed to adopt a systematic approach in evidence synthesis. Objectives : The primary aim of this current systematic review is to synthesise the current evidence for attention biases amongst opioid use, cannabis use, and stimulant use disorders. The secondary aim is to determine the efficacy of attention bias modification interventions and other addictions related outcomes. Methods : A search was conducted from November 2017 to January 2018 on PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Science Direct, Cochrane Central, and Scopus. The selection process of the articles was in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines. A qualitative synthesis was undertaken. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Results : Six randomised trials were identified. The evidence synthesized from these trials have provided strong evidence that attentional biases are present in opioid and stimulant use disorders. Evidence synthesis for other secondary outcome measures could not be performed given the heterogeneity in the measures reported and the limited number of trials. The risk of bias assessment for the included trials revealed a high risk of selection and attrition bias. Conclusions : This review demonstrates the potential need for interventions targeting attention

Artificial Intelligence: The Expert Way.

Science.gov (United States)

Bitter, Gary G.

1989-01-01

Discussion of artificial intelligence (AI) and expert systems focuses on their use in education. Characteristics of good expert systems are explained; computer software programs that contain applications of AI are described, highlighting one used to help educators identify learning-disabled students; and the future of AI is discussed. (LRW)

Mind the Gaps: Expert and Non-Expert Differences in Conceptualising the Geological Subsurface.

Science.gov (United States)

Gibson, H.; Stewart, I. S.; Stokes, A.; Pahl, S.

2017-12-01

In communicating geoscience topics, emphasis is often given to approaches such as the use of narrative to make a message engaging and reducing the use of jargon to ensure that it is understood by as wide a group of people as possible. Whilst these are undeniably important techniques to promote effective communication, an aspect of geoscience communication that is often overlooked is the publics' conceptual frameworks about core geoscience concepts. The consideration of different conceptual frameworks fits with the need to ensure that the framing is appropriate for the message, but it extends beyond simple framing into more complicated issues of addressing and incorporating pre- and mis-conceptions in geoscience. In a study examining expert and non-expert cognitive (mental) models of the geological subsurface in south-west England, several gaps were found between the fundamental ways that experts and non-experts conceptualise this invisible realm. Of these, three gaps were considered to be particularly important and common to many participants: the use of spatial reasoning; the application of surface experiences to subsurface processes; and the connection between the surface and subsurface. This paper will examine the evidence for these three important conceptual gaps between specialists and non-specialists and will address how this type of cognitive study can help improve effective geoscience communication.

An expert system for sensor data validation and malfunction detection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hashemi, S.; Hajek, B.K.; Miller, D.W.

1987-01-01

Nuclear power plant operation and monitoring in general is a complex task which requires a large number of sensors, alarms and displays. At any instant in time, the operator is required to make a judgment about the state of the plant and to react accordingly. During abnormal situations, operators are further burdened with time constraints. The possibility of an undetected faulty instrumentation line, adds to the complexity of operators' reasoning tasks. Failure of human operators to cope with the conceptual complexity of abnormal situations often leads to more serious malfunctions and further damages to plant (TMI-2 as an example). During these abnormalities, operators rely on the information provided by the plant sensors and associated alarms. Their usefulness however, is quickly diminished by their large number and the extremely difficult task of interpreting and comprehending the information provided by them. The need for an aid to assist the operator in interpreting the available data and diagnosis of problems is obvious. Recent work at the Ohio State University Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence Research (LAIR) and the nuclear engineering program has concentrated on the problem of diagnostic expert systems performance and their applicability to the nuclear power plant domain. There has also been concern about the diagnostic expert systems performance when using potentially invalid sensor data. Because of this research, an expert system has been developed that can perform diagnostic problem solving despite the existence of some conflicting data in the domain. This work has resulted in enhancement of a programming tool, that allows domain experts to create a diagnostic system that will be to some degree, tolerant of bad data while performing diagnosis. This expert system is described here

Opinion dynamics with confirmation bias.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Armen E Allahverdyan

Full Text Available Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical research of this phenomenon has mainly focused on its economic implications possibly missing its potential connections with broader notions of cognitive science.We formulate a (non-Bayesian model for revising subjective probabilistic opinion of a confirmationally-biased agent in the light of a persuasive opinion. The revision rule ensures that the agent does not react to persuasion that is either far from his current opinion or coincides with it. We demonstrate that the model accounts for the basic phenomenology of the social judgment theory, and allows to study various phenomena such as cognitive dissonance and boomerang effect. The model also displays the order of presentation effect-when consecutively exposed to two opinions, the preference is given to the last opinion (recency or the first opinion (primacy -and relates recency to confirmation bias. Finally, we study the model in the case of repeated persuasion and analyze its convergence properties.The standard Bayesian approach to probabilistic opinion revision is inadequate for describing the observed phenomenology of persuasion process. The simple non-Bayesian model proposed here does agree with this phenomenology and is capable of reproducing a spectrum of effects observed in psychology: primacy-recency phenomenon, boomerang effect and cognitive dissonance. We point out several limitations of the model that should motivate its future development.

Key attributes of expert NRL referees.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Gavin; O'Connor, Donna

2017-05-01

Experiential knowledge of elite National Rugby League (NRL) referees was investigated to determine the key attributes contributing to expert officiating performance. Fourteen current first-grade NRL referees were asked to identify the key attributes they believed contributed to their expert refereeing performance. The modified Delphi method involved a 3-round process of an initial semi-structured interview followed by 2 questionnaires to reach consensus of opinion. The data revealed 25 attributes that were rated as most important that underpin expert NRL refereeing performance. Results illustrate the significance of the cognitive category, with the top 6 ranked attributes all cognitive skills. Of these, the referees ranked decision-making accuracy as the most important attribute, followed by reading the game, communication, game understanding, game management and knowledge of the rules. Player rapport, positioning and teamwork were the top ranked game skill attributes underpinning performance excellence. Expert referees also highlighted a number of psychological attributes (e.g., concentration, composure and mental toughness) that were significant to performance. There were only 2 physiological attributes (fitness, aerobic endurance) that were identified as significant to elite officiating performance. In summary, expert consensus was attained which successfully provided a hierarchy of the most significant attributes of expert NRL refereeing performance.

Expert systems: A new approach to radon mitigation training and quality assurance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brambley, M.R.; Hanlon, R.L.; Parker, G.B.

1990-07-01

Training radon mitigators and ensuring that they provide high-quality work on the scale necessary to reduce radon to acceptable levels in the large number of homes and schools requiring some mitigation is a challenging problem. The US Environmental Protection Agency and several states have made commendable efforts to train mitigators and ensure that they provide quality services to the public. Expert systems could be used to extend and improve the effectiveness of these efforts. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the radon community to this promising new technology. The paper includes a description of a prototype system developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory that illustrates several of the capabilities that expert systems can provide, a brief explanation of how the prototype works, and a discussion of the potential roles and benefits of fully-developed expert systems for radon mitigation. 4 refs., 3 figs.

Expert systems: A new approach to radon mitigation training and quality assurance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brambley, M.R.; Hanlon, R.L.; Parker, G.B.

1990-07-01

Training radon mitigators and ensuring that they provide high-quality work on the scale necessary to reduce radon to acceptable levels in the large number of homes and schools requiring some mitigation is a challenging problem. The US Environmental Protection Agency and several states have made commendable efforts to train mitigators and ensure that they provide quality services to the public. Expert systems could be used to extend and improve the effectiveness of these efforts. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the radon community to this promising new technology. The paper includes a description of a prototype system developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory that illustrates several of the capabilities that expert systems can provide, a brief explanation of how the prototype works, and a discussion of the potential roles and benefits of fully-developed expert systems for radon mitigation. 4 refs., 3 figs

Quantifying Heuristic Bias: Anchoring, Availability, and Representativeness.

Science.gov (United States)

Richie, Megan; Josephson, S Andrew

2018-01-01

Construct: Authors examined whether a new vignette-based instrument could isolate and quantify heuristic bias. Heuristics are cognitive shortcuts that may introduce bias and contribute to error. There is no standardized instrument available to quantify heuristic bias in clinical decision making, limiting future study of educational interventions designed to improve calibration of medical decisions. This study presents validity data to support a vignette-based instrument quantifying bias due to the anchoring, availability, and representativeness heuristics. Participants completed questionnaires requiring assignment of probabilities to potential outcomes of medical and nonmedical scenarios. The instrument randomly presented scenarios in one of two versions: Version A, encouraging heuristic bias, and Version B, worded neutrally. The primary outcome was the difference in probability judgments for Version A versus Version B scenario options. Of 167 participants recruited, 139 enrolled. Participants assigned significantly higher mean probability values to Version A scenario options (M = 9.56, SD = 3.75) than Version B (M = 8.98, SD = 3.76), t(1801) = 3.27, p = .001. This result remained significant analyzing medical scenarios alone (Version A, M = 9.41, SD = 3.92; Version B, M = 8.86, SD = 4.09), t(1204) = 2.36, p = .02. Analyzing medical scenarios by heuristic revealed a significant difference between Version A and B for availability (Version A, M = 6.52, SD = 3.32; Version B, M = 5.52, SD = 3.05), t(404) = 3.04, p = .003, and representativeness (Version A, M = 11.45, SD = 3.12; Version B, M = 10.67, SD = 3.71), t(396) = 2.28, p = .02, but not anchoring. Stratifying by training level, students maintained a significant difference between Version A and B medical scenarios (Version A, M = 9.83, SD = 3.75; Version B, M = 9.00, SD = 3.98), t(465) = 2.29, p = .02, but not residents or attendings. Stratifying by heuristic and training level, availability maintained

Analysis of the drilling sound component from expert performance in a maxillo-facial surgery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hoffmann, Pablo F.; Gosselin, Florian; Taha, Farid

2009-01-01

Auditory displays can have a great potential in surgical simulators that aim at training skills associated to the correct interpretation of auditory information. Here, we present preliminary results in the analysis of the sound produced by the drilling procedure in a maxillo-facial surgery when...... performed by expert surgeons. The motivation of this work is to find relevant acoustic parameters that allow for an efficient synthesis method of auditory displays so that they can effectively convey information on expert surgical drilling....

Bias, Confounding, and Interaction: Lions and Tigers, and Bears, Oh My!

Science.gov (United States)

Vetter, Thomas R; Mascha, Edward J

2017-09-01

Epidemiologists seek to make a valid inference about the causal effect between an exposure and a disease in a specific population, using representative sample data from a specific population. Clinical researchers likewise seek to make a valid inference about the association between an intervention and outcome(s) in a specific population, based upon their randomly collected, representative sample data. Both do so by using the available data about the sample variable to make a valid estimate about its corresponding or underlying, but unknown population parameter. Random error in an experiment can be due to the natural, periodic fluctuation or variation in the accuracy or precision of virtually any data sampling technique or health measurement tool or scale. In a clinical research study, random error can be due to not only innate human variability but also purely chance. Systematic error in an experiment arises from an innate flaw in the data sampling technique or measurement instrument. In the clinical research setting, systematic error is more commonly referred to as systematic bias. The most commonly encountered types of bias in anesthesia, perioperative, critical care, and pain medicine research include recall bias, observational bias (Hawthorne effect), attrition bias, misclassification or informational bias, and selection bias. A confounding variable is a factor associated with both the exposure of interest and the outcome of interest. A confounding variable (confounding factor or confounder) is a variable that correlates (positively or negatively) with both the exposure and outcome. Confounding is typically not an issue in a randomized trial because the randomized groups are sufficiently balanced on all potential confounding variables, both observed and nonobserved. However, confounding can be a major problem with any observational (nonrandomized) study. Ignoring confounding in an observational study will often result in a "distorted" or incorrect estimate of

The impact of virtual reality on implicit racial bias and mock legal decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Salmanowitz, Natalie

2018-05-01

Implicit racial biases are one of the most vexing problems facing current society. These split-second judgments are not only widely prevalent, but also are notoriously difficult to overcome. Perhaps most concerning, implicit racial biases can have consequential impacts on decisions in the courtroom, where scholars have been unable to provide a viable mitigation strategy. This article examines the influence of a short virtual reality paradigm on implicit racial biases and evaluations of legal scenarios. After embodying a black avatar in the virtual world, participants produced significantly lower implicit racial bias scores than those who experienced a sham version of the virtual reality paradigm. Additionally, these participants more conservatively evaluated an ambiguous legal case, rating vague evidence as less indicative of guilt and rendering more Not Guilty verdicts. As the first experiment of its kind, this study demonstrates the potential of virtual reality to address implicit racial bias in the courtroom setting.

The impact of virtual reality on implicit racial bias and mock legal decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Salmanowitz, Natalie

2018-01-01

Abstract Implicit racial biases are one of the most vexing problems facing current society. These split-second judgments are not only widely prevalent, but also are notoriously difficult to overcome. Perhaps most concerning, implicit racial biases can have consequential impacts on decisions in the courtroom, where scholars have been unable to provide a viable mitigation strategy. This article examines the influence of a short virtual reality paradigm on implicit racial biases and evaluations of legal scenarios. After embodying a black avatar in the virtual world, participants produced significantly lower implicit racial bias scores than those who experienced a sham version of the virtual reality paradigm. Additionally, these participants more conservatively evaluated an ambiguous legal case, rating vague evidence as less indicative of guilt and rendering more Not Guilty verdicts. As the first experiment of its kind, this study demonstrates the potential of virtual reality to address implicit racial bias in the courtroom setting. PMID:29707220

Payoff Information Biases a Fast Guess Process in Perceptual Decision Making under Deadline Pressure: Evidence from Behavior, Evoked Potentials, and Quantitative Model Comparison.

Science.gov (United States)

Noorbaloochi, Sharareh; Sharon, Dahlia; McClelland, James L

2015-08-05

We used electroencephalography (EEG) and behavior to examine the role of payoff bias in a difficult two-alternative perceptual decision under deadline pressure in humans. The findings suggest that a fast guess process, biased by payoff and triggered by stimulus onset, occurred on a subset of trials and raced with an evidence accumulation process informed by stimulus information. On each trial, the participant judged whether a rectangle was shifted to the right or left and responded by squeezing a right- or left-hand dynamometer. The payoff for each alternative (which could be biased or unbiased) was signaled 1.5 s before stimulus onset. The choice response was assigned to the first hand reaching a squeeze force criterion and reaction time was defined as time to criterion. Consistent with a fast guess account, fast responses were strongly biased toward the higher-paying alternative and the EEG exhibited an abrupt rise in the lateralized readiness potential (LRP) on a subset of biased payoff trials contralateral to the higher-paying alternative ∼ 150 ms after stimulus onset and 50 ms before stimulus information influenced the LRP. This rise was associated with poststimulus dynamometer activity favoring the higher-paying alternative and predicted choice and response time. Quantitative modeling supported the fast guess account over accounts of payoff effects supported in other studies. Our findings, taken with previous studies, support the idea that payoff and prior probability manipulations produce flexible adaptations to task structure and do not reflect a fixed policy for the integration of payoff and stimulus information. Humans and other animals often face situations in which they must make choices based on uncertain sensory information together with information about expected outcomes (gains or losses) about each choice. We investigated how differences in payoffs between available alternatives affect neural activity, overt choice, and the timing of choice

Self-face Captures, Holds, and Biases Attention.

Science.gov (United States)

Wójcik, Michał J; Nowicka, Maria M; Kotlewska, Ilona; Nowicka, Anna

2017-01-01

The implicit self-recognition process may take place already in the pre-attentive stages of perception. After a silent stimulus has captured attention, it is passed on to the attentive stage where it can affect decision making and responding. Numerous studies show that the presence of self-referential information affects almost every cognitive level. These effects may share a common and fundamental basis in an attentional mechanism, conceptualized as attentional bias: the exaggerated deployment of attentional resources to a salient stimulus. A gold standard in attentional bias research is the dot-probe paradigm. In this task, a prominent stimulus (cue) and a neutral stimulus are presented in different spatial locations, followed by the presentation of a target. In the current study we aimed at investigating whether the self-face captures, holds and biases attention when presented as a task-irrelevant stimulus. In two dot-probe experiments coupled with the event-related potential (ERP) technique we analyzed the following relevant ERPs components: N2pc and SPCN which reflect attentional shifts and the maintenance of attention, respectively. An inter-stimulus interval separating face-cues and probes (800 ms) was introduced only in the first experiment. In line with our predictions, in Experiment 1 the self-face elicited the N2pc and the SPCN component. In Experiment 2 in addition to N2pc, an attentional bias was observed. Our results indicate that unintentional self-face processing disables the top-down control setting to filter out distractors, thus leading to the engagement of attentional resources and visual short-term memory.