In a policy-based system management, a policy refinement process is required to translate abstract policies, which are specified by human, into enforceable policies, which are enforced by machine. However, a manual policy refinement process imposes some problems. The first problem is that it requires expert knowledge to perform the policy refinement process. The second problem is that refining policies for complex systems is a tedious task. Manual refinement process may cause some negative co...
Spruijt, Pita; Knol, Anne B; Petersen, Arthur C; Lebret, Erik
The overall evidence for adverse health effects of electromagnetic fields (EMF) at levels of exposure normally experienced by the public is generally considered weak. However, whether long-term health effects arise remains uncertain and scientific policy advice is therefore given against a background of uncertainty. Several theories exist about different roles that experts may take when they provide advice on complex issues such as EMF. To provide empirical evidence for these theories, we conducted an expert consultation with as main research question: What are the different roles of EMF experts when they provide policy advice? Q methodology was used to empirically test theoretical notions on the existence and determinants of different expert roles and to analyze which roles actually play out in the domain of EMF. Experts were selected based on a structured nominee process. In total 32 international EMF experts participated. Responses were analyzed using Principal Component Analysis and for the open questions we used Atlas.ti. Four expert roles were found. Most striking differences between the four roles are whether experts consider current EMF policies adequate or not, whether additional -precautionary- measures are needed, and how experts view their position vis-à-vis policymakers and/or other stakeholders. This empirical study provides support for the so far mainly theoretical debate about the existence of different roles of experts when they give policy advice. The experts' assessment of the degree of uncertainty of the issue turned out to be highly associated with their role. We argue that part of the controversy that exists in the debate regarding scientific policy advice on EMF is about different values and roles.
South African-born Lindsey Collen, based for most of her writing years on the Indian Ocean Republic of Mauritius, has been propelled to fame in the postcolonial English-language sphere for twice having gained the Commonwealth Writers Prize for the Africa region. Best known for her first winner, the breakthrough novel ...
Akcali, Pinar; Engin-Demir, Cennet
The purpose of this study is to analyze the educational policies of Turkey in Central Asia and Caucasia in the post-Soviet era in terms of their successes and failures as perceived by some of the relevant professional policy makers in this field as well as experts from various think-tank institutions in Turkey who are interested in the region.…
Full Text Available At 38,000, the total number of staff at the European Commission is relatively small for a body representing half a billion citizens. Likewise, the 3,500 strong research and statistical team is modest in size given that it operates across the Directorates General and other services. In order to assist policy-makers, the Commission supplements this research base by using outside expertise to advise at all stages of the policy-making process. For many years, those who observe the European Union’s institutions have recognised that this use of outside expertise to assist with the shaping of policy presents a potential democratic shortfall. The 2001 White Paper on Governance acknowledged that the line between expertise and political authority had become blurred and that, increasingly, the public questioned the independence of expert advice. The following year, the Commission published its first set of guidelines on the collection and use of expertise, listing ‘openness’ as one of three core principles. Despite considerable changes that have occurred in the transparency landscape in the intervening period, the Commission’s commitment to this core principle of expertise remains. This article investigates the measures the Commission introduced specifically to facilitate this openness. Applying a structure-agency approach, the article characterises an expert group as a ‘community of knowledge’ and contrasts the transparency of the Commission’s formal appointment procedures with the less visible but frequently used informal measures through which individuals are identified and approached. Based on a recent and highly relevant case, the article employs data gathered from the near contemporaneous accounts of expert group members and Commission officials. It finds that the reported appointment processes do not reflect the widespread incidence of individuals selected based on previous contact or personal recommendation and argues that this may
The reorientation of energy policy is a key issue. The Council of Environmental Experts considers the further use of atomic energy to be irresponsible and recommends a new orientation. Recommendations are made on ecology-centered taxation. Critical comments are made in the context of conservation of nature, where many species of plants and animals still continue to be endangered. The conservation programme of the Federal government, which also comprises a system of large, interconnected biotopes on 10% of Germany's total surface, is approved, and the potential contribution of sustainable agricultural and forestry policy is discussed in a separate chapter. Further subjects discussed are recycling and waste management, protection of water and soil, air pollution abatement, health protection and genetic engineering. The environmental aspects of Eastern European states becoming EC members are gone into in particular. The network of Europen Environmental Councils, for which the German Council of Environmental Experts currently acts as a coordinator, makes intensive efforts to improve environmental counselling in these states [de
Oh, Young Sam; Nam, SungHee; Kim, Yuna
This research explores how expert knowledge is created in the process of women-friendly policy making, based on actor network theory (ANT). To address this purpose, this study uses the "Women's Happiness in the City of Seoul" policy initiated by the local government of Seoul as one example of policy development. Research findings demonstrate that knowledge creation in expert groups followed the four stages suggested by ANT. In addition, this study found that various types of knowledge emerged from individual experts. This research elucidates the process of knowledge creation and its meanings for women-friendly policy.
May 1, 2017 ... Building Bridges was conceived as a safe and constructive space for African leaders to foster a systematic and sustained dialogue about critical development issues in Africa. The policy-focused research and outreach program at the University of Cape Town's Graduate School of Development Policy and ...
1 mai 2017 ... Building Bridges was conceived as a safe and constructive space for African leaders to foster a systematic and sustained dialogue about critical development issues in Africa. The policy-focused research and outreach program at the University of Cape Town's Graduate School of Development Policy and ...
Stasiak, Dorota (Dr)
Development of the think tank sector in post-communist states is, at times, regarded as a self-evident consequence of the processes of democratization. However, the specific “environment of obstacles and opportunities” makes it neither automatic, nor easy for think tanks of the region to join the policy game. In particular, it is not clear to what extent the think tanks in transition democracies can or should engage in strictly political disputes. The alleged shift from academic towards...
Suárez, Cristian; del Moral, Gonzalo; Musitu, Gonzalo; Sánchez, Juan Carlos; John, Bev
The objective of this study is to obtain the views of a sample of adolescents and experts on adolescence, family, school, local policies and media, regarding the effectiveness of institutional policies to prevent adolescent alcohol use. Four educational centers in the province of Seville. Head office of the Alcohol and Society Foundation in Madrid. Qualitative study using the method proposed by Grounded theory (Glaser and Strauss, 1967). Data were collected from 10 discussion groups guided by semistructured interviews. The data were analyzed using Atlas ti 5 software. A total of 32 national experts and 40 adolescents of both sexes aged 15 to 20 years living in the province of Seville, selected by theoretical intentional sampling. The experts believed that most of the evaluated preventive actions were effective, while adolescents disputed the preventive impact of most of them. Adolescents proposed actions focused on the reduction of supply of alcohol. Experts proposed a mixed model as the most effective strategy to prevent alcohol consumption in adolescents, combining supply and demand reduction policies, depending on specific short and long term objectives. We have obtained, not only an overview of what is working (or not) from the view of adolescents and experts, but also the key points that should be taken into account for designing effective prevention policies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
Morgan, M Granger
The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making.
Berrittella, Maria [Centro Interdipartimentale di Ricerca per la Programmazione Informatica dell' Economia e Tecnologia (CIRPIET), Universita degli Studi di Palermo, V.le delle Scienze, 90128 Palermo (Italy)], E-mail: email@example.com; Certa, Antonella; Enea, Mario [Dipartimento di Tecnologia Meccanica, Produzione e Ingegneria Gestionale (DTMPIG), Universita degli Studi di Palermo, V.le delle Scienze, 90128 Palermo (Italy); Zito, Pietro [Dipartimento di Ingegneria dei Trasporti (DITRA), Universita degli Studi di Palermo, V.le delle Scienze, 90128 Palermo (Italy)
Transport is the sector with the fastest growth of greenhouse gases emissions in many countries. Accumulation of these emissions may cause uncertain and irreversible adverse climate change impacts. In this context, we use the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to face the question on how to select the best transport policy if the experts have different opinions and beliefs on the occurrence of these impacts. Thus, both the treatment of uncertainty and dissent are examined for the ranking of transport policies. The opinions of experts have been investigated by a means of a survey questionnaire. A sensitivity analysis of the experts' weights and the criteria' weights confirms the robustness of the results.
Simon-Rusinowitz, Lori; Wilson, Laura B.; Marks, Lori N.; Krach, Constance A.; Welch, Catherine
Interviews conducted in 1994 with policy experts and researchers and from focus groups of adults aged 40-48 regarding the future work and retirement needs of baby boomers found that many adults are anxious but unable to plan for a financially secure future. (Author/JOW)
This article reports on key findings from a study of subnational governments in Mexico and Nigeria (O'Brien, 2013). With empirical richness of the case study method and small-n statistical analysis across the subnational units for each country, this study asks: How can we push the needle toward more progressive policy change on violence against women in developing and democratizing contexts? This study finds that issue-specific expert networking is a civic pathway to subnational policy responsiveness in Mexico and Nigeria. The dynamics of this pathway illuminate local-global political connections, and this study shows how issue-specific expert networking is important for the diffusion of an international norm and policies on violence against women. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The role of technical experts, especially scientists and engineers, in the development of Britain's civil nuclear energy policy is analysed. It is proposed that civil initiatives came from the integration of technical professions within the bureaucracy of government and quasi-governmental organisations involved in the formulation and implementation of policy. Organisational logic and professional motivation encouraged policies which would lead to occupational autonomy. The first three chapters develop the concept of technical professionalism, Chapters 4-7 then focus on the technocrat's role in providing a spur from their positions within the policy community's bureaucracies that drives top-level policy decisions. These functions are examined in more detail using two case studies, the first concerned with the evolution of British Nuclear Fuels Ltd., the second with the Inquiry (in 1977) into the proposal by BNFL to extend its Windscale site (now known as Sellafield) to build the Thermal Oxide Reprocessing Plant. (U.K.)
Vandevijvere, Stefanie; Dominick, Clare; Devi, Anandita; Swinburn, Boyd
To assess government actions to improve the healthiness of food environments in New Zealand, based on the healthy food environment policy index. A panel of 52 public health experts rated the extent of government implementation against international best practice for 42 indicators of food environment policy and infrastructure support. Their ratings were informed by documented evidence, validated by government officials and international benchmarks. There was a high level of implementation for some indicators: providing ingredient lists and nutrient declarations and regulating health claims on packaged foods; transparency in policy development; monitoring prevalence of noncommunicable diseases and monitoring risk factors for noncommunicable diseases. There was very little, if any implementation of the following indicators: restrictions on unhealthy food marketing to children; fiscal and food retail policies and protection of national food environments within trade agreements. Interrater reliability was 0.78 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.76-0.79). Based on the implementation gaps, the experts recommended 34 actions, and prioritized seven of these. The healthy food environment policy index provides a useful set of indicators that can focus attention on where government action is needed. It is anticipated that this policy index will increase accountability of governments, stimulate government action and support civil society advocacy efforts.
Jeanie J. Bukowski
Full Text Available There is a normative consensus that science should contribute to decision-making in environmental policy, given that science provides a means of understanding natural systems, human impacts upon them, and the consequences of those impacts for human systems. Despite this general agreement, however, the means through which science is transmitted into policy is contested. This paper envisions several of the competing characterisations of the science-policy interface as a continuum with the endpoints of 'fortress science' and 'co-production', and applies this continuum in an empirical analysis of the transboundary expert community promoting a 'new water culture' on the Iberian Peninsula. In engaging directly with members of this community, the paper finds that these characterisations are better seen as strategies among which scientists and their communities may choose and over which they may disagree. These trade-offs and disagreements in turn have implications for policy impact.
This paper provides a case study of the Centre for Independent Studies (CIS) in Australia with a focus on its education policy work, specifically the report, "School funding on a budget" (SFoB). CIS is a conservative right wing advocacy think tank, established in 1976 in the aftermath of the Whitlam government's policy activism, framed…
Tubbing, Luuk; Harting, Janneke; Stronks, Karien
While expectations of integrated public health policy (IPHP) promoting public health are high, assessment is hampered by the concept's ambiguity. This paper aims to contribute to conceptual clarification of IPHP as first step in further measurement development. In an online concept mapping procedure, we invited 237 Dutch experts, 62 of whom generated statements on characteristics of IPHP. Next, 100 experts were invited, 24 of whom sorted the statements into piles according to their perceived similarity and rated the statements on relevance and measurability. Data was analyzed using concept mapping software. The concept map consisted of 97 statements, grouped into 11 clusters and five themes. Core themes were 'integration', concerning 'policy coherence' and 'organizing connections', and 'health', concerning 'positioning health' and 'addressing determinants'. Peripheral themes were 'generic aspects', 'capacities', and 'goals and setting', which respectively addressed general notions of integrated policy making, conditions for IPHP, and the variety in manifestations of IPHP. Measurability ratings were low compared to relevance. The concept map gives an overview of interrelated themes, distinguishes core from peripheral dimensions, and provides pointers for theories of the policy process. While low measurability ratings indicate measurement difficulties, the core themes provide pointers for systematic insight into IPHP through measurement. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
A plethora of literature suggests that many nurses struggle in their attempts to develop a political role that allows them to directly influence and implement health policy activity. Nursing curricula are an integral part of ensuring that nurses are capable of taking on a more active role in initiating and developing health policy processes, through a broadening of the health promotion curriculum that focuses on socio-political approaches to health care provision. Despite this, the available literature suggests that the majority of nursing curricula are yet to fulfil this role. Such a role could be supported by attempts to define and promote a specific career route that develops nurses as health policy experts and entrepreneurs early on in their careers. This article aims to put forward a rationale for developing such a position in nursing education.
Robertson, Lindsay; Marsh, Louise; Hoek, Janet; McGee, Rob
Higher tobacco retailer density promotes smoking by making cigarettes more accessible and available, and by increasing environmental cues to smoke. We aimed to examine tobacco control experts' views on policies that could reduce tobacco retail availability. Telephone interviews with 25 individuals drawn from academia, non-governmental organisations, Māori and Pacific health, smoking cessation services, district health boards and other public health-related organisations. We used a semi-structured interview guide to explore the perceived importance of reducing tobacco retail supply, views on different policy options and barriers to policy adoption. Qualitative content analysis was conducted using transcripts as the data source. Participants believed tobacco retailer licensing was an important short-term step towards the 2025 goal. In the long-term, participants envisaged tobacco only being available at a small number of specialised outlets, either pharmacies or adult-only stores. To achieve that long-term scenario, participants suggested a sinking-lid policy on licences or a zoning approach could be adopted to gradually reduce outlet density. Policies banning sales at certain types of outlet were not considered feasible. There is tension between the tobacco retail reduction policies seen as more likely to be politically acceptable, and the need to make substantial changes to the tobacco retail environment by 2025. Future research could investigate possible legal mechanisms for requiring existing tobacco retailers to transition out of selling tobacco.
This thesis is an interpretive analysis of experts' perspectives on the climate implications of New England's reliance on natural gas for electricity generation. Specifically, this research, conducted through interviews and literature review, examines experts' opinions on the desired role of natural gas within the regional electricity sector, alternative energy resources, and state and regional policy opportunities toward the achievement of New England's ambitious long-term greenhouse gas reduction goals. Experts expressed concern about the climate dilemma posed by a dependence on natural gas. However, interviews revealed that short-term reliability and cost considerations are paramount for many experts, and therefore a reliance on natural gas is the existing reality. To incentivize renewable generation technologies for the purposes of long-term climate stabilization, experts advocated for the expanded implementation of renewable portfolio standard, net metering, and feed-in tariff policies. More broadly, interviewees expressed the need for an array of complementary state and regional policies.
Kraemer, Stella Rj; Gulis, Gabriel
The aim of this article is to present how the Danish Disease Prevention Committee (DDPC) members and HIA-experts understand when HIA is "relevant", which in this context means when there is "presumed to be a direct and documented effect on the health and morbidity of citizens". Method: DDPC members...... between policy and the related risk factors. Both groups favour the use of scientific evidence according to the traditional biomedical evidence hierarchy but HIA-experts also judge that there is value in using evidence that can be considered weak such as local community knowledge. Conclusions: It is clear...... that the DDPC recommendation gives rise to a discussion on differing perceptions of relevance. The same definition can be used for both direct and indirect effects depending on interpretation. Documented evidence for an effect is desirable in the form provided by the traditional biomedical evidence hierarchy...
Ball, Jude; Hoek, Janet; Tautolo, El Shadan; Gifford, Heather
Reducing smoking in young adults, particularly young Māori and Pacific, is vital for reducing tobacco harm and health inequalities in New Zealand (NZ). We investigated how NZ policy experts appraised the feasibility and likely effectiveness of interventions designed to reduce smoking prevalence among 18-24 year olds. We used a qualitative design, conducting semistructured interviews and applying thematic analysis. We interviewed 15 key informants, including politicians, senior policy analysts and leading tobacco control advocates. Participant selection was based on seniority and expertise and ensuring diverse perspectives were represented. We examined nine interventions that could either promote greater mindfulness or introduce barriers impeding smoking uptake: smoke-free outdoor dining and bars; no tobacco sales where alcohol is sold; social marketing campaigns; real life stories (testimonials); life skills training; raise purchase age to 21; tobacco-free generation; smokers' licence; make tobacco retail premises R18. The policies perceived as more effective denormalised tobacco; made it less convenient to access and use; highlighted immediate disadvantages (eg, impact on fitness); aligned with young people's values; and addressed the underlying causes of smoking (eg, stress). Participants highlighted some political barriers and noted concerns that some interventions might widen ethnic disparities. Exceptions were social marketing campaigns and extending smoke-free regulations to include outdoor areas of cafes and bars, which participants saw as politically feasible and likely to be effective. Our findings suggest the merit of an approach that combines social marketing with regulation that makes accessing and using tobacco less convenient for young adults; however, political barriers may limit the regulatory options available in the short term. Strategies to support self-determination and address the underlying causes of smoking in young people warrant further
van der Veer, Sabine N.; Ravani, Pietro; Coentrão, Luis; Fluck, Richard; Kleophas, Werner; Labriola, Laura; Hoischen, Susanne H.; Noordzij, Marlies; Jager, Kitty J.; van Biesen, Wim
The purpose of this study is to explore how vascular access care was reimbursed, promoted, and organised at the national level in European and neighbouring countries. An electronic survey among national experts to collect country-level data. Forty-seven experts (response rate, 76%) from 37 countries
Panelists identified key strengths and limitations of alternative policy approaches that should be of assistance to the Congress in weighing the potential benefits and costs of different policies for addressing climate change. Many panelists said tha...
Broda, Anja; Bieber, Anja; Meyer, Gabriele; Hopper, Louise; Joyce, Rachael; Irving, Kate; Zanetti, Orazio; Portolani, Elisa; Kerpershoek, Liselot; Verhey, Frans; Vugt, Marjolein de; Wolfs, Claire; Eriksen, Siren; Røsvik, Janne; Marques, Maria J; Gonçalves-Pereira, Manuel; Sjölund, Britt-Marie; Woods, Bob; Jelley, Hannah; Orrell, Martin; Stephan, Astrid
As part of the ActifCare (ACcess to Timely Formal Care) project, we conducted expert interviews in eight European countries with policy and political decision makers, or representatives of relevant institutions, to determine their perspectives on access to formal care for people with dementia and their carers. Each ActifCare country (Germany, Ireland, Italy, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, United Kingdom) conducted semi-structured interviews with 4-7 experts (total N = 38). The interview guide addressed the topics "Complexity and Continuity of Care", "Formal Services", and "Public Awareness". Country-specific analysis of interview transcripts used an inductive qualitative content analysis. Cross-national synthesis focused on similarities in themes across the ActifCare countries. The analysis revealed ten common themes and two additional sub-themes across countries. Among others, the experts highlighted the need for a coordinating role and the necessity of information to address issues of complexity and continuity of care, demanded person-centred, tailored, and multidisciplinary formal services, and referred to education, mass media and campaigns as means to raise public awareness. Policy and political decision makers appear well acquainted with current discussions among both researchers and practitioners of possible approaches to improve access to dementia care. Experts described pragmatic, realistic strategies to influence dementia care. Suggested innovations concerned how to achieve improved dementia care, rather than transforming the nature of the services provided. Knowledge gained in these expert interviews may be useful to national decision makers when they consider reshaping the organisation of dementia care, and may thus help to develop best-practice strategies and recommendations.
Dagonneau, Jérôme; Rocks, Sophie A; Prpich, George; Garnett, Kenisha; Black, Edgar; Pollard, Simon J T
Strategic risk appraisal (SRA) has been applied to compare diverse policy level risks to and from the environment in England and Wales. Its application has relied on expert-informed assessments of the potential consequences from residual risks that attract policy attention at the national scale. Here we compare consequence assessments, across environmental, economic and social impact categories that draw on 'expert'- and 'literature-based' analyses of the evidence for 12 public risks appraised by Government. For environmental consequences there is reasonable agreement between the two sources of assessment, with expert-informed assessments providing a narrower dispersion of impact severity and with median values similar in scale to those produced by an analysis of the literature. The situation is more complex for economic consequences, with a greater spread in the median values, less consistency between the two assessment types and a shift toward higher severity values across the risk portfolio. For social consequences, the spread of severity values is greater still, with no consistent trend between the severities of impact expressed by the two types of assessment. For the latter, the findings suggest the need for a fuller representation of socioeconomic expertise in SRA and the workshops that inform SRA output. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Environmental policy. 2000 environmental expert opinion of the Council of Experimental Experts; Umweltpolitik. Umweltgutachten 2000 des Rates von Sachverstaendigen fuer Umweltfragen. Schritte ins naechste Jahrtausend. Kurzfassung
The reorientation of energy policy is a key issue. The Council of Environmental Experts considers the further use of atomic energy to be irresponsible and recommends a new orientation. Recommendations are made on ecology-centered taxation. Critical comments are made in the context of conservation of nature, where many species of plants and animals still continue to be endangered. The conservation programme of the Federal government, which also comprises a system of large, interconnected biotopes on 10% of Germany's total surface, is approved, and the potential contribution of sustainable agricultural and forestry policy is discussed in a separate chapter. Further subjects discussed are recycling and waste management, protection of water and soil, air pollution abatement, health protection and genetic engineering. The environmental aspects of Eastern European states becoming EC members are gone into in particular. The network of Europen Environmental Councils, for which the German Council of Environmental Experts currently acts as a coordinator, makes intensive efforts to improve environmental counselling in these states. [German] Eines der Schwerpunktthemen des Umweltgutachtens ist die Neuordnung der Energiepolitik. Der Umweltrat haelt die weitere Nutzung der Atomenergie vor allem wegen der Risiken der Entsorgung nicht fuer verantwortbar. Er befuerwortet die Einleitung einer Energiewende. Zur oekologischen Steuerreform werden weiterfuehrende Empfehlungen unterbreitet. An vielen Stellen nimmt der Rat die Umweltpolitik auch kritisch unter die Lupe. Er weist auf den hohen Handlungsbedarf im Naturschutz hin. Eine dauerhafte Trendwende beim Grad der Gefaehrdung heimischer Tier- und Pflanzenarten sei in Deutschland noch nicht erreicht. Der Rat bestaetigt in diesem Zusammenhang die naturschutzpolitische Konzeption der Bundesregierung fuer einen Naturschutz auf der ganzen Flaeche, kombiniert mit einem grossflaechigen Biotopverbundsystem auf 10% der Landesflaeche. Der
Beyers, J.; Braun, C.H.J.M.; DeBruycker, I.
This article sheds light on the practice and method of expert interviewing in research projects on interest group politics. We first discuss the rationale of interviewing as a data collection instrument, arguing that a careful combination and cross-validation of behavioral and observational data
Values are an important part of evidence-based decision making for health policy: they guide the type of evidence that is collected, how it is interpreted, and how important the conclusions are considered to be. Experts in breast screening (including clinicians, researchers, consumer advocates and senior administrators) hold differing values in relation to what is important in breast screening policy and practice, and committees may find it difficult to incorporate the complexity and variety of values into policy decisions. The decision making tool provided here is intended to assist with this process. The tool is modified from more general frameworks that are intended to assist with ethical decision making in public health, and informed by data drawn from previous empirical studies on values amongst Australian breast screening experts. It provides a structured format for breast screening committees to consider and discuss the values of themselves and others, suggests relevant topics for further inquiry and highlights areas of need for future research into the values of the public. It enables committees to publicly explain and justify their decisions with reference to values, improving transparency and accountability. It is intended to act alongside practices that seek to accommodate the values of individual women in the informed decision making process for personal decision making about participation in breast screening. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Fact-based policies grounded in solid uncontested scientific evidence: this may sound as the ideal relation between science and policy. However, this ideal rarely holds for complex environmental health risks. When scientific knowledge is contested or incomplete, scientists can take different roles
Points out that policy decisions about nuclear weapons evolve from politics, bureaucracy, and technology, indicating that intelligent people can learn enough about technology to make judgments about policy issues. Suggests, however, that much more thinking is necessary to arrive at a coherent perspective about what constitutes nuclear weapons…
Stressing, Samantha J; Borthwick, Alan M
Demographic changes and a predicted rise in the prevalence of chronic illness have led to a range of health policies in the UK (and elsewhere) focused on workforce flexibility and extended roles for the allied health professions. Whilst much academic attention has been paid to extended specialised roles for allied health professionals such as podiatrists, little work has addressed the likely impact of these policy changes on non-specialist, 'generalist' podiatry practice. This study aimed to explore expert professional views on the impact of role flexibility on generalist podiatry practice. Expert podiatry practitioners drawn from within the professional body, the Society of Chiropodists and Podiatrists/College of Podiatry were recruited to 3 focus groups and 4 individual semi structured interviews and the data subject to a thematic analysis. Three key themes emerged, reflecting concerns about the future of generalist podiatry practice in the NHS, a perceived likelihood that generalist care will move inexorably towards private sector provision, and a growth in support worker grades undermining the position of generalist practice in the mainstream health division of labour. Up skilling generalist practitioners was viewed as the strongest defence against marginalisation. An emphasis on enhanced and specialised roles in podiatry by NHS commissioners and profession alike may threaten the sustainability of generalist podiatry provision in the state funded NHS. Non-specialist general podiatry may increasingly become the province of the private sector.
Zimmer, K.E.; Gutleb, A.C.; Ravnum, S.; Krayer von Krauss, M.; Murk, A.J.; Ropstad, E.; Skaare, J.U.; Eriksen, G.S.; Lyche, J.L.; Koppe, J.G.; Magnanti, B.; Yang, A.; Keune, H.
Background: The EU 6th Framework Program (FP)-funded Health and Environment Network (HENVINET) aimed to support informed policy making by facilitating the availability of relevant knowledge on different environmental health issues. An approach was developed by which scientific agreement,
Newton, Alex; Lloyd-Williams, Ffion; Bromley, Helen; Capewell, Simon
A conflict of interest (CoI) can occur between public duty and private interest, in which a public official's private-capacity interest could improperly influence the performance of their official duties and responsibilities. The most tangible and commonly considered CoI are financial. However, CoI can also arise due to other types of influence including interpersonal relationships, career progression, or ideology. CoI thus exist in academia, business, government and non-governmental organisations. However, public knowledge of CoI is currently limited due to a lack of information. The mechanisms of managing potential conflicts of interest also remain unclear due to a lack of guidelines. We therefore examined the independence of academic experts and how well potential CoI are identified and addressed in four government and non-governmental organisations in the UK responsible for the development of food policy. Policy analysis. We developed an analytical framework to explore CoI in high-level UK food policy advice, using four case studies. Two government policy-making bodies: Department of Health 'Obesity Review Group' (ORG), 'Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition' (SACN) and two charities: 'Action on Sugar' (AoS), & 'Heart of Mersey' (HoM). Information was obtained from publicly available sources and declarations. We developed a five point ordinal scale based upon the ideology of the Nolan Principles of Public Life. Group members were individually categorised on the ordinal ConScale from "0", (complete independence from the food and drink industry) to "4", (employed by the food and drink industry or a representative organisation). CoI involving various industries have long been evident in policy making, academia and clinical practice. Suggested approaches for managing CoI could be categorised as "deny", "describe", or "diminish". Declared CoI were common in the ORG and SACN. 4 out of 28 ORG members were direct industry employees. In SACN 11 out of 17 members
A member of the U.S. Women's World Cup Soccer Team poses with Astronauts (from left) Steven W. Lindsey, Nancy Jane Currie and Laurel B. Clark. The team arrived at the Skid Strip at Cape Canaveral Air Station with First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton to view the launch of Space Shuttle mission STS-93. Liftoff is scheduled for 12:36 a.m. EDT July 20. Much attention has been generated over the launch due to Commander Eileen M. Collins, the first woman to serve as commander of a Shuttle mission. The primary payload of the five-day mission is the Chandra X-ray Observatory, which will allow scientists from around the world to study some of the most distant, powerful and dynamic objects in the universe. The new telescope is 20 to 50 times more sensitive than any previous X-ray telescope and is expected to unlock the secrets of supernovae, quasars and black holes.
Full Text Available Abstract Background A conflict of interest (CoI can occur between public duty and private interest, in which a public official’s private-capacity interest could improperly influence the performance of their official duties and responsibilities. The most tangible and commonly considered CoI are financial. However, CoI can also arise due to other types of influence including interpersonal relationships, career progression, or ideology. CoI thus exist in academia, business, government and non-governmental organisations. However, public knowledge of CoI is currently limited due to a lack of information. The mechanisms of managing potential conflicts of interest also remain unclear due to a lack of guidelines. We therefore examined the independence of academic experts and how well potential CoI are identified and addressed in four government and non-governmental organisations in the UK responsible for the development of food policy. Methods Policy analysis. We developed an analytical framework to explore CoI in high-level UK food policy advice, using four case studies. Two government policy-making bodies: Department of Health ‘Obesity Review Group’ (ORG, ‘Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition’ (SACN and two charities: ‘Action on Sugar’ (AoS, & ‘Heart of Mersey’ (HoM. Information was obtained from publicly available sources and declarations. We developed a five point ordinal scale based upon the ideology of the Nolan Principles of Public Life. Group members were individually categorised on the ordinal ConScale from “0”, (complete independence from the food and drink industry to “4”, (employed by the food and drink industry or a representative organisation. Results CoI involving various industries have long been evident in policy making, academia and clinical practice. Suggested approaches for managing CoI could be categorised as “deny”, “describe”, or “diminish”. Declared CoI were common in the ORG and SACN
More, Simon J; McKenzie, Ken; O'Flaherty, Joe; Doherty, Michael L; Cromie, Andrew R; Magan, Mike J
Agriculture is a very important contributor to the Irish economy. In Ireland, national animal health services have been a government, rather than an industry, responsibility. In 2009, Animal Health Ireland (AHI) was established to provide a partnership approach to national leadership of non-regulatory animal health issues (those not subject to national and/or EU regulation). The objectives of this study were to elicit opinion from experts and farmers about non-regulatory animal health issues facing Irish livestock industries, including prioritisation of animal health issues and identification of opportunities to maximise the effective use of AHI resources. The study was conducted with experts using Policy Delphi methodology over three rounds, and with farmers using a priority identification survey. Non-regulatory bovine diseases/conditions were prioritised by both experts and farmers based on impact and international competitiveness. For each high-priority disease/condition, experts were asked to provide an assessment based on cost, impact, international perception, impediment to international market access and current resource usage effectiveness. Further information was also sought from experts about resource allocation preferences, methods to improve education and coordination, and innovative measures to improve prevention and management. There was close agreement between responses from experts and dairy farmers: each gave highest priority to 3 diseases with a biosecurity risk (subsequently termed 'biosecure diseases') (bovine viral diarrhoea [BVD], infectious bovine rhinotracheitis [IBR], paratuberculosis) and 4 diseases/conditions generally without a biosecurity risk ('non-biosecure diseases/conditions') (fertility, udder health/milk quality, lameness, calf health). Beef farmers also prioritised parasitic conditions and weanling pneumonia. The adverse impact of biosecure diseases is currently considered relatively minor by experts, but would increase
Jones, A.K.; Jones, D.L.; Edwards-Jones, G.; Cross, P.
Highlights: ► Effectiveness and practicality of greenhouse gas mitigation measures are assessed. ► Best–Worst Scaling surveys are used to elicit expert and sheep farmer opinion. ► Effective and practical measures are priority candidates for policy inclusion. ► Support mechanisms may be needed to deliver effective, low practicality measures. ► Variation in farmers’ perceptions of practicality holds implications for policy delivery. -- Abstract: Policy decision making for agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation is hindered by scientific uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Successful on-farm adoption of measures is contingent upon farmer perception of the relative practicality of implementing the measure and associated incentives and advice. In the absence of a comprehensive evidence base we utilised Best–Worst Scaling, a discrete choice survey method, to elicit expert and farmer opinion on the relative effectiveness and practicality of mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from sheep production systems. The method enabled individual mitigation measures to be ranked on a ratio scale of effectiveness (expert opinion) and practicality (farmer opinion). Six measures were identified as possessing the combined qualities of effectiveness and practicality and are considered priority candidates for policy promotion. The overall preferred measure was the use of legumes in pasture reseed mixes. Estimation and analysis of the distribution of individual respondent scores revealed heterogeneity in farmers’ perceptions of practicality, suggesting that flexible policies are required to enable farmers to select mitigation measures most suited to their farm type and locality. Practical measures with below average effectiveness may be widely adopted with limited regulation, incentivisation or advice, whilst some highly effective measures with lower practicality are likely to present greater obstacles to adoption
Taylor, Suzanne L
Cannabis was introduced to the UK as a medical product in the nineteenth century. However, with questions over its safety, efficacy, and possible harms its medical role diminished and by the 1950s it was viewed as a drug of misuse. Nonetheless, scientific and lay knowledge around cannabis expanded from the 1960s and cannabis re-appeared in different therapeutic forms. In re-medicalizing cannabis, science-policy transfer proved important and was enabled by the developing mechanism of expert committees, most notably the Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs (ACMD). This article draws upon previously unknown archival material on the ACMD held at the National Archives and covers the period 1972-1982. It considers how expert groups were established, their membership, and the evolving discussion over therapeutic cannabis within the broader drug policy debate. Three distinct periods emerged: 1972-1976 with the creation of the Working Group on Cannabis; 1977-1979 when the Working Group focused on potential amendments to the Misuse of Drugs Act and recommended downgrading cannabis from Class B to Class C; 1980-1982 when the Expert Group on the Effects of Cannabis recommended downgrading cannabis and encouraged research into cannabis as a medicine. Sources reveal that driven by drug control imperatives the ACMD stimulated research on cannabis leading to increased research on medical applications. Expert advice was critical in the process of re-medicalization. Initially, discourse occurred in the closed expert committees of the ACMD. The drug problem had been framed under the criminal justice system but as the limitations of this were revealed, and there was continuing uncertainty over cannabis' impact, new approaches to cannabis were sought. It was this combination of more relaxed attitudes towards cannabis, research incentives, as well as a developing desire to draw medical needs away from discussion of drug control that was to allow re-medicalization to develop
Ballester, Rosa; Porras, María Isabel; Báguena, María José
One of the main focuses of analysis of this paper concerns the missions of international health agency experts to Spain to report on the situation, the activities in the fight against physical disabilities in children and on the actions taken to cope with the problem. The Spain-23 Plan was the instrument used by WHO and other agencies to start the process of change in a country undergoing a period of transformation under the enduring Franco dictatorship. As key sources, the paper uses unpublished reports of WHO experts on the subject, which resulted from visits to the country between 1950 and 1975. The methodological approach consists of an analysis of discourses from primary sources within the historiographical framework.
The need for evidence-based decision making in immunization programs has increased due to the presence of multiple health priorities, limited human resources, expensive vaccines, and limited funds. Countries should establish a group of national experts to advise their Ministries of Health. So far, many nations have formed their own National Immunization Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs). In the Republic of Korea, the Korea Expert Committee on Immunization Practices (KECIP), established by law in the early 1990s, has made many important technical recommendations to contribute to the decline in vaccine preventable diseases and currently functions as a NITAG. It includes 13 core members and 2 non-core members, including a chairperson. Core members usually come from affiliated organizations in internal medicine, pediatrics, obstetrics, microbiology, preventive medicine, nursing and a representative from a consumer group, all of whom serve two year terms. Non-core members comprise two government officials belonging to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) and the Korea Food and Drug Administration. Meetings are held as needed, but at least twice a year, and sub-committees are formed as a resource for gathering, analyzing, and preparing information for the KECIP meetings. Once the sub-committees or the KCDC review the available data, the KECIP members discuss each issue in depth and develop recommendations, usually by a consensus in the meeting. The KECIP publishes national guidelines and immunization schedules that are updated regularly. KECIP's role is essentially consultative and the implementation of their recommendations may depend on the budget or current laws. PMID:22359523
Hee Yeon Cho
Full Text Available The need for evidence-based decision making in immunization programs has increased due to the presence of multiple health priorities, limited human resources, expensive vaccines, and limited funds. Countries should establish a group of national experts to advise their Ministries of Health. So far, many nations have formed their own National Immunization Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs. In the Republic of Korea, the Korea Expert Committee on Immunization Practices (KECIP, established by law in the early 1990s, has made many important technical recommendations to contribute to the decline in vaccine preventable diseases and currently functions as a NITAG. It includes 13 core members and 2 non-core members, including a chairperson. Core members usually come from affiliated organizations in internal medicine, pediatrics, obstetrics, microbiology, preventive medicine, nursing and a representative from a consumer group, all of whom serve two year terms. Non-core members comprise two government officials belonging to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC and the Korea Food and Drug Administration. Meetings are held as needed, but at least twice a year, and sub-committees are formed as a resource for gathering, analyzing, and preparing information for the KECIP meetings. Once the sub-committees or the KCDC review the available data, the KECIP members discuss each issue in depth and develop recommendations, usually by a consensus in the meeting. The KECIP publishes national guidelines and immunization schedules that are updated regularly. KECIP’s role is essentially consultative and the implementation of their recommendations may depend on the budget or current laws.
The definitions of the terms 'artificial intelligence' and 'expert systems', the methodology, areas of employment and limits of expert systems are discussed. The operation of an expert system is described, especially the presentation and organization of knowledge as well as interference and control. Methods and tools for expert system development are presented and their application in nuclear energy are briefly addressed. 7 figs., 2 tabs., 6 refs
a case study of the May 2003 Danish consensus conference on environmental economics as a policy tool, the article reflects on the politics of expert authority permeating practices of public participation. Adopting concepts from the sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK), the conference is seen......-than-successful defense in the citizen perspective. Further, consensus conferences are viewed alternatively as "expert dissent conferences," serving to disclose a multiplicity of expert commitments. From this perspective, some challenges for democratizing expertise through future exercises in public participation...
Georgiana Marin; Mihai Catalin Andrei
In recent decades IT and computer systems have evolved rapidly in economic informatics field. The goal is to create user friendly information systems that respond promptly and accurately to requests. Informatics systems evolved into decision assisted systems, and such systems are converted, based on gained experience, in expert systems for creative problem solving that an organization is facing. Expert systems are aimed at rebuilding human reasoning on the expertise obtained from experts, sto...
Ghooi, Ravindra B
All is not well with the clinical research industry. Instances of scientific misconduct by investigators, cutting corners by sponsors, irregularities by regulators, have brought a bad name to the industry. These however form a small part of the clinical research done in this country. The US FDA has conducted over 40 audits, and not made any major observations, suggesting that the clinical research in India is by and large above board. Regulators have amended trial rules recently which have cost the industry dear. A committee appointed to formulate the policy and guidelines for approval of new drugs, clinical trials and banning of the drugs has made 25 recommendations of which most are either superfluous or not likely produce the desired effect. Clubbing banning of the drugs with approval of new drugs and clinical trials also does not make sense, since the mechanisms involved are totally different. Barring a few, most recommendations are counterproductive and should be rejected outright. It is time we learnt that appointment of a committee is not the best way to solve a problem.
Hildebrandt, Thomas Troels; Cattani, Gian Luca
An expert system is a computer system for inferring knowledge from a knowledge base, typically by using a set of inference rules. When the concept of expert systems was introduced at Stanford University in the early 1970s, the knowledge base was an unstructured set of facts. Today the knowledge...... base of expert systems is often given in terms of an ontology, extracted and built from various data sources by employing natural language-processing and statistics. To emphasize such capabilities, the term “expert” is now often replaced by “cognitive,” “knowledge,” “knowledge-based,” or “intelligent......” system. With very few exceptions, general-purpose expert systems have failed to emerge so far. However, expert systems are applied in specialized domains, particularly in healthcare. The increasing availability of large quantities of data to organizations today provides a valuable opportunity...
demonstrated that, on the balance of probabilities, a correct diagnosis at that time would not have altered the course of the illness. Quantum. Where it appears likely that the claimant may have a strong case on both breach of duty and causation, MPS may seek the opinion of a quantum expert to assist in determining the size.
Citizen deliberation on technoscientific developments is regularly regarded as a hallmark of Danish democracy, embodied in particular by the Danish Board of Technology. Few empirically guided questions have been raised, however, as to how the Board's democratic projects actually work. Through...... a case study of the May 2003 Danish consensus conference on environmental economics as a policy tool, the article reflects on the politics of expert authority permeating practices of public participation. Adopting concepts from the sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK), the conference is seen......-than-successful defense in the citizen perspective. Further, consensus conferences are viewed alternatively as "expert dissent conferences," serving to disclose a multiplicity of expert commitments. From this perspective, some challenges for democratizing expertise through future exercises in public participation...
Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda
Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)
Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan
Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724
Over the past 10 years, numerous public debates on new and emerging science and technologies have taken place in the United Kingdom. In this article, we characterise the discourses emerging from these debates and compare them to the discourses in analogous expert scientific and policy reports. We find that while the public is broadly supportive of new scientific developments, they see the risks and social and ethical issues associated with them as unpredictable but inherent parts of the developments. In contrast, the scientific experts and policymakers see risks and social and ethical issues as manageable and quantifiable with more research and knowledge. We argue that these differences amount to two different sociotechnical imaginaries or views of science and how it shapes our world - an elite imaginary of 'science to the rescue' shared by scientists and policymakers and public counter-imaginary of 'contingent progress'. We argue that these two imaginaries indicate that, but also help explain why, public dialogue has had limited impact on public policy.
Discusses: (1) the architecture of expert systems; (2) features that distinguish expert systems from conventional programs; (3) conditions necessary to select a particular application for the development of successful expert systems; (4) issues to be resolved when building expert systems; and (5) limitations. Examples of selected expert systems…
Despite legislation in the U.S.A requiring the use of assistive technology in special education, there remains an underutilization of technology-based speech intervention for young students who require augmentative and alternative communication (AAC). The purpose of this Policy Delphi study was to address three guiding research questions that…
Renn, O.; Albrecht, G.; Kotte, U.; Peters, H.P.; Stegelmann, H.U.
The socio-compatibility project comprises three central analytical elements: 1) The arborescent value analysis: Eminent social groups (such as the trade-unions or the ecological institutes) were questioned on their values and criteria applied to evaluate different energy systems. 2) The energy system and scenario impact analysis: Indicators deduced from the arborescent value analysis serve to approximately cover the value dimensions affected by above criteria. 3) Impact analysis weighing executed by a group of arbitrarily chosen citizens. All reflections considered, it is evident that none of the energy policies discussed may claim the title 'socio-compatible'. The individual, i.e. neither scientist nor politician, cannot decide upon the socio-compatibility of one or the other concept. An altogether socially compatible solution accepted and classified as such by different social groups may only crystallize and be set against different options by the political formation of opinion. The studys' primary concern lies in furnishing information, i.e. aids for politicians having to decide on energy policies. Above all the study aimed at finding out about reactions, social protest, opposition or approval to be coped with by those who, having the say in political matters, want to speak up for one of the energy policies under public discussion. (orig./HSCH).
Choi, Young Sung; Lee, Sun Ho; Lee, Byong Whi
Public perception on nuclear energy is much influenced by subjective impressions mostly formed through sensational and dramatic news of mass media or anti-nuclear groups. However, nuclear experts, those who have more relevant knowledge and information about nuclear energy, may have reasonable opinion based on scientific facts or inferences. Thus their opinion and consensus should be examined and taken into account during the process of nuclear energy policy formulation. For the purpose of eliciting experts' opinion, the web-based on-line survey system (eBOSS) was developed. Using the survey system, experts' views on nuclear energy were tallied, analyzed and compared with the public's. Based on the survey results, the paper suggests some recommendations about the future direction of the public information program in Korea
Johannsen, J.; Macallister, J.; Michalek, T.; Ross, S.
Various authors have pointed out that humans can become quite adept at deriving phonetic transcriptions from speech spectrograms (as good as 90percent accuracy at the phoneme level). The authors describe an expert system which attempts to simulate this performance. The speech spectrogram expert (spex) is actually a society made up of three experts: a 2-dimensional vision expert, an acoustic-phonetic expert, and a phonetics expert. The visual reasoning expert finds important visual features of the spectrogram. The acoustic-phonetic expert reasons about how visual features relates to phonemes, and about how phonemes change visually in different contexts. The phonetics expert reasons about allowable phoneme sequences and transformations, and deduces an english spelling for phoneme strings. The speech spectrogram expert is highly interactive, allowing users to investigate hypotheses and edit rules. 10 references.
Correia, Aldina; e Silva, Eliana Costa; Lopes, I. Cristina; Braga, Alexandra; Braga, Vitor
The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor is a large scale database for internationally comparative entrepreneurship. This database includes information of more than 100 countries concerning several aspects of entrepreneurship activities, perceptions, conditions, national and regional policy, among others, in two main sources of primary data: the Adult Population Survey and the National Expert Survey. In the present work the National Expert Survey datasets for 2011, 2012 and 2013 are analyzed with the purpose of studying the effects of different type of entrepreneurship expert specialization on the perceptions about the Entrepreneurial Framework Conditions (EFCs). The results of the multivariate analysis of variance for the 2013 data show significant differences of the entrepreneurship experts when compared the 2011 and 2012 surveys. For the 2013 data entrepreneur experts are less favorable then most of the other experts to the EFCs.
Intended for potential business users, this paper describes the main characteristics of expert systems; discusses practical use considerations; presents a taxonomy of the systems; and reviews several expert system development projects in business and industry. (MBR)
The profession of an expert auditor is a public trust occupation with a distinctive feature of taking responsibility for actions in the public interest. The main responsibility of expert auditors is performing financial auditing; however, expert auditors are prepared to carry out different tasks which encompass a wide plethora of financial and auditing services for different kinds of institutions and companies. The aim of the article is first of all the description of expert auditors’ service...
Dijkstra, JJ; Liebrand, WBG; Timminga, E; Liebrand, Wim B.G.
Expert system advice is not always evaluated by examining its contents. Users can be persuaded by expert system advice because they have certain beliefs about advice given by a computer. The experiment in this paper shows that subjects (n = 84) thought that, given the same argumentation, expert
Mark A Burgman
Full Text Available Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.
Computerized screening devices and performance assessment: development of a policy towards automation. International Academy of Cytology Task Force summary. Diagnostic Cytology Towards the 21st Century: An International Expert Conference and Tutorial.
Bartels, P H; Bibbo, M; Hutchinson, M L; Gahm, T; Grohs, H K; Gwi-Mak, E; Kaufman, E A; Kaufman, R H; Knight, B K; Koss, L G; Magruder, L E; Mango, L J; McCallum, S M; Melamed, M R; Peebles, A; Richart, R M; Robinowitz, M; Rosenthal, D L; Sauer, T; Schenck, U; Tanaka, N; Topalidis, T; Verhest, A P; Wertlake, P T; Wilbur, D C
The extension of automation to the diagnostic assessment of clinical materials raises issues of professional responsibility, on the part of both the medical professional and designer of the device. The International Academy of Cytology (IAC) and other professional cytology societies should develop a policy towards automation in the diagnostic assessment of clinical cytologic materials. The following summarizes the discussion of the initial position statement at the International Expert Conference on Diagnostic Cytology Towards the 21st Century, Hawaii, June 1997. 1. The professional in charge of a clinical cytopathology laboratory continues to bear the ultimate medical responsibility for diagnostic decisions made at the facility, whether automated devices are involved or not. 2. The introduction of automated procedures into clinical cytology should under no circumstances lead to a lowering of standards of performance. A prime objective of any guidelines should be to ensure that an automated procedure, in principle, does not expose any patient to new risks, nor should it increase already-existing, inherent risks. 3. Automated devices should provide capabilities for the medical professional to conduct periodic tests of the appropriate performance of the device. 4. Supervisory personnel should continue visual quality control screening of a certain percentage of slides dismissed at primary screening as within normal limits (WNL), even when automated procedures are employed in the laboratory. 5. Specifications for the design of primary screening devices for the detection of cervical cancer issued by the IAC in 1984 were reaffirmed. 6. The setting of numeric performance criteria is the proper charge of regulatory agencies, which also have the power of enforcement. 7. Human expert verification of results represents the "gold standard" at this time. Performance characteristics of computerized cytology devices should be determined by adherence to defined and well
Brechet, Y.; Musseau, O.; Bruna, G.; Sperandio, M.; Roulleaux-Dugage, M.; Andrieux, S.; Metteau, L.
This series of short articles are dedicated to the role of the expert in the enterprise. There is an important difference between a scientific counsellor and an expert, the expert, recognized by his peers, can speak publicly in his field of expertise but has a duty of transparency while the job of a scientific counsellor requires confidentiality. The making and the use of an expert in an enterprise requires a dedicated organization. The organization of the expertise in 5 enterprises in nuclear industry are considered: CEA (French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission), IRSN (Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety), AREVA, ANDRA (National Radioactive Waste Management Agency) and EDF (Electricity of France)
Asami, Tohru; Hashimoto, Kazuo; Yamamoto, Seiichi
Recently, aiming at the application to the plant control for nuclear reactors and traffic and communication control, the research and the practical use of the expert system suitable to real time processing have become conspicuous. In this report, the condition for the required function to control the object that dynamically changes within a limited time is presented, and the technical difference between the real time expert system developed so as to satisfy it and the expert system of conventional type is explained with the actual examples and from theoretical aspect. The expert system of conventional type has the technical base in the problem-solving equipment originating in STRIPS. The real time expert system is applied to the fields accompanied by surveillance and control, to which conventional expert system is hard to be applied. The requirement for the real time expert system, the example of the real time expert system, and as the techniques of realizing real time processing, the realization of interruption processing, dispersion processing, and the mechanism of maintaining the consistency of knowledge are explained. (K.I.)
Hendrix, E.M.T.; Kornelis, M.; Pegge, S.M.; Galen, van M.A.
In this study, focus is on a systematic way to detect future changes in trends that may effect the dynamics in the agro-food sector, and on the combination of opinions of experts. For the combination of expert opinions, the usefulness of multilevel models is investigated. Bayesian data analysis is
The purpose of this article is to introduce readers to the basic principles of rule-based expert systems. Four topics are discussed in subsequent sections: (1) Definition; (2) Structure of an expert system; (3) State of the art and (4) Impact and future research. (orig.)
This paper argues that the concepts and techniques used in the development of expert systems should be expanded and applied to the field of education, particularly in the area of intelligent tutoring systems. It is noted that expert systems are a well known area of artificial intelligence and have been proven effective in well-defined topic areas.…
W.M. Koolen-Wijkstra (Wouter); S. de Rooij (Steven)
htmlabstractWe show how models for prediction with expert advice can be defined concisely and clearly using hidden Markov models (HMMs); standard HMM algorithms can then be used to efficiently calculate, among other things, how the expert predictions should be weighted according to the model. We
Colebatch, H.K.; Hoppe, Robertus; Noordegraaf, Mirko
Though democratic government calls for well-designed and implemented policy, there is surprisingly little expert guidance available for policy makers and politicians. Working for Policy fills that gap, addressing the nature of policy work and offering necessary guidance. The contributors bring
Road Safety Data, Collection, Transfer and Analysis DaCoTa. Workpackage 4, Decision Support: Deliverable 4.1: Consultation of a panel of experts on the needs for data and technical tools in road safety policy-making.
Dupont, E. Martensen, H. Papadimitriou, E. Yannis, G. Muhlrad, N. Jähi, H. Vallet, G. Giustiniani, G. Tripodi, A. Usami, D. Bax, C. Wijnen, W. Schöne, M.-L. Machata, K. Buttle, I. Zysinska, M. Talbot, R. Gitelman, V. & Hakkert, S.
In a co-production of DaCoTA WP1 and DaCoTA WP4, an Experts Panel was created and a consultation was launched for the preliminary assessment of knowledge, data and analysis needs within road safety management. The objective of the consultation of this Experts Panel was the assessment of current
Oliva, Peter F.; Henson, Kenneth T.
The curriculum and instruction specialist should not fall prey to the "expert syndrome," in which the specialist decides on the "best" curriculum or instructional method without considering the teacher's discipline or personality. (CJ)
The brochure presents, in full wording, 20 papers read at the experts' meeting ''Maintenance '83'' in Wiesbaden. Most of the papers discuss reliability data (acquisition, evaluation, processing) of nearly all fields of industry. (RW) [de
Thorndahl, Kathrine Liedtke; Ravn, Susanne
and autoethnographic material from one former elite skipper, we take some initial steps toward the development of a more nuanced understanding of the concept of incorporation; one that is able to accommodate the experiences of expert tool users. In sum, our analyses indicate that the possibility for experiencing...... a tool as incorporated depends on the existence of an extraordinary kind of relationship between the tool and the expert tool user. This relation, that can persist even when successful manipulation of the tool fails, is not only cultivated through deliberate practice of physical skills, but also through...... the collective sense-making process going on within a particular community of practice. Therefore, expert tool users may experience a more profound kind of incorporation that can persist even when normal motor incorporation fails....
Full Text Available In 1999, Molodtsov introduced the concept of soft set theory as a general mathematical tool for dealing with uncertainty. Many researchers have studied this theory, and they created some models to solve problems in decision making and medical diagnosis, but most of these models deal only with one expert. This causes a problem with the user, especially with those who use questionnaires in their work and studies. In our model, the user can know the opinion of all experts in one model. So, in this paper, we introduce the concept of a soft expert set, which will more effective and useful. We also define its basic operations, namely, complement, union intersection AND, and OR. Finally, we show an application of this concept in decision-making problem.
Helton, William S
The motor control of novice participants is often cognitively demanding and susceptible to interference by other tasks. As people develop expertise, their motor control becomes less susceptible to interference from other tasks. Researchers propose a transition in human motor skill from active control to automaticity. This progression may also be the case with nonhuman animals. Differences in performance characteristics between expert, advanced, intermediate, and novice dogs competing in the sport of agility were investigated. There were statistically significant differences between dogs of varying competitive levels in speed, motor control, and signal detections suggestive of increasing motor control automaticity in highly skilled, or expert, dogs. The largest sequential motor control difference was between novice and intermediate dogs, d = .96, whereas the largest sequential signal detection difference was between advanced and expert dogs, d = .90. These findings have two significant implications for expertise researchers: first, the observed similarities between dogs and humans may enable dogs to be used as expert models; and second, expertise science and methods may be profitably employed in the future to create more proficient canine workers.
Dowell, Laurie; Gary, Jack; Illingworth, Bill; Sargent, Tom
Gathering information, necessary forms, and financial calculations needed to generate a "capital investment proposal" is an extremely complex and difficult process. The intent of the capital investment proposal is to ensure management that the proposed investment has been thoroughly investigated and will have a positive impact on corporate goals. Meeting this requirement typically takes four or five experts a total of 12 hours to generate a "Capital Package." A Capital Expert System was therefore developed using "Personal Consultant." The completed system is hybrid and as such does not depend solely on rules but incorporates several different software packages that communicate through variables and functions passed from one to another. This paper describes the use of expert system techniques, methodology in building the knowledge base, contexts, LISP functions, data base, and special challenges that had to be overcome to create this system. The Capital Expert System is the successful result of a unique integration of artificial intelligence with business accounting, financial forms generation, and investment proposal expertise.
Roč. 8, č. 2 (1995), s. 261-271 ISSN 0893-6080 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/95/0976 Keywords : expert system * knowledge representation * multilayered neural network * back propagation * interval neuron function * incomplete information * explanation Impact factor: 1.262, year: 1995
Atkins, T.; Demuysere, P.
The EXPERT Program is funded by ESA. The objective of the EXPERT mission is to perform a sub-orbital flight during which measurements of critical aero- thermodynamic phenomena will be obtained by using state-of-the-art instrumentation. As part of the EXPERT Flight Segment, the responsibility of the Cold Structure Development Design, Manufacturing and Validation was committed to the Belgian industrial team SONACA/SABCA. The EXPERT Cold Structure includes the Launcher Adapter, the Bottom Panel, the Upper Panel, two Cross Panels and the Parachute Bay. An additional Launcher Adapter was manufactured for the separation tests. The selected assembly definition and manufacturing technologies ( machined parts and sandwich panels) were dictated classically by the mass and stiffness, but also by the CoG location and the sensitive separation interface. Used as support for the various on-board equipment, the Cold Structure is fixed to but thermally uncoupled from the PM 1000 thermal shield. It is protect on its bottom panel by a thermal blanket. As it is a protoflight, analysis was the main tool for the verification. Low level stiffness and modal analysis tests have also been performed on the Cold Structure equipped with its ballast. It allowed to complete its qualification and to prepare SONACA/SABCA support for the system dynamic tests foreseen in 2011. The structure was finally coated with a thermal control black painting and delivered on time to Thales Alenia Space-Italy end of March 201.
Berube, David; Cummings, Christopher; Cacciatore, Michael; Scheufele, Dietram; Kalin, Jason
Research needs assessment regarding environmental health and safety (EHS) of nanoparticles is problematic. Generating benchmark data to assess research and policy initiatives seems daunting. This study's findings present more granular and qualitative assessments of expert preferences and concerns. This three-round Delphi study elicits expert estimations of problematic nanoparticle characteristics and classifications from a sample of nanoscience experts in chemistry, EHS policy, engineering, environmental toxicology, and human toxicology (n = 18). The Delphi method is a forecasting tool designed for expert evaluation of events under high degrees of uncertainty. Results demonstrate high concordance indicating favorable consensus among the sample concerning characteristics and classifications of nanoparticles that are potentially or actually problematic to EHS. These findings establish a benchmark for future investigations of expert preferences and concerns.
Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.
Expert PL/SQL Practices is a book of collected wisdom on PL/SQL programming from some of the best and the brightest in the field. Each chapter is a deep-dive into a specific problem, technology, or feature set that you'll face as a PL/SQL programmer. Each author has chosen their topic out of the strong belief that what they share can make a positive difference in the quality and scalability of code that you write. The path to mastery begins with syntax and the mechanics of writing statements to make things happen. If you've reached that point with PL/SQL, then let the authors of Expert PL/SQL
[Objective: To present the process and challenges of developing an online competency-based course on public health policy using a collaborative international approach.Methods: Five public health experts, supported by an expert in educational technology, adopted a rigorous approach to the development of the course: a needs analysis, identification of objectives and competencies, development of a pedagogical scenario for each module and target, choice of teaching methods and learning activities, material to be identified or developed, and the responsibilities and tasks involved.Results: The 2-credit (90-hour) graduate course consists of six modules including an integration module. The modules start with a variety of case studies: tobacco law (neutral packaging), supervised injection sites, housing, integrated services for the frail elderly, a prevention programme for mothers from disadvantaged backgrounds, and the obligatory use of bicycle helmets. In modules 1, 3, 4 and 5, students learn about different stages of the public policy development process: emergence, formulation and adoption, implementation and evaluation. Module 2 focuses on the importance of values and ideologies in public policy. The integration module allows the students to apply the knowledge learned and addresses the role of experts in public policy and ethical considerations.Conclusion].
Hébert, Réjean; Coppieters, Yves; Pradier, Christian; Williams-Jones, Bryn; Brahimi, Cora; Farley, Céline
To present the process and challenges of developing an online competency-based course on public health policy using a collaborative international approach. Five public health experts, supported by an expert in educational technology, adopted a rigorous approach to the development of the course: a needs analysis, identification of objectives and competencies, development of a pedagogical scenario for each module and target, choice of teaching methods and learning activities, material to be identified or developed, and the responsibilities and tasks involved. The 2-credit (90-hour) graduate course consists of six modules including an integration module. The modules start with a variety of case studies: tobacco law (neutral packaging), supervised injection sites, housing, integrated services for the frail elderly, a prevention programme for mothers from disadvantaged backgrounds, and the obligatory use of bicycle helmets. In modules 1, 3, 4 and 5, students learn about different stages of the public policy development process: emergence, formulation and adoption, implementation and evaluation. Module 2 focuses on the importance of values and ideologies in public policy. The integration module allows the students to apply the knowledge learned and addresses the role of experts in public policy and ethical considerations. The course has been integrated into the graduate programmes of the participating universities and allows students to follow, at a distance, an innovative training programme.
... and economic environment in which they operate and work. EPR enlists experts in public policy, business, economic theory and practice to express their thoughts and views in the most influential way possible on economic policy and direction of government and the Nigerian economy in the short, medium and long terms.
was able to prove such a machine could exist. 3 Lady Ada Lovelace was a contemporary of George Babbage. She studied with Babbage and wrote a popular...essay explaining the analytical engine. She is sometimes credited with inventing computer languages. The Ada computer language is named in her honor. -8...documentation and logic flow charting of the whole system. If your expert system is written in a highly structured language such as Ada , logic flow
Ionita, C; Carena, F
The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period
Schiltenwolf, Marcus; Beckmann, Nickolas; Gaidzik, Peter
Experts in criminal, civil and, increasingly, in social court cases have to present their expert opinions in court. This should be regarded not only as a burden, even if this may at times appear superfluous to the expert, perhaps because the discussion is mere repetition of the opinion he has already written, or because the questions appear to be biased against the expert. Nonetheless, the expert is always advised to appear calm and objective during the interrogation by judges and parties or participants and their legal representatives, and should not allow himself or herself to be provoked by questioning. Furthermore, it may be necessary to correct the written expert statement in the course of the interrogation, but this can be a sign of a truly competent medical expert. The expert consulted can be held liable for adverse health effects resulting from the interrogation and investigation, as well as for deliberate or grossly faulty reports. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.
Tavella, Elena; Papadopoulos, Thanos
the behaviour of one expert and two novice facilitators during a Viable System Model workshop. The findings suggest common facilitation patterns in the behaviour of experts and novices. This contrasts literature claiming that experts and novices behave and use their available knowledge differently......This paper provides an empirical study based on action research in which expert and novice facilitators in facilitated modelling workshops are compared. There is limited empirical research analysing the differences between expert and novice facilitators. Aiming to address this gap we study...... and facilitation strategies in contexts in which external, expert facilitation is not always possible are also discussed, and limitations of this study are provided....
CHAIRMAN Ousmane Sy, Minister of territorial administration and local institutions (Republic of Mali) SCIENTIFIC COORDINATORS Jérôme Marie (Paris 10 University) Pierre Morand (IRD) Hamady N’Djim (Consulting engineer) MEMBERS Jean-François Bélières (Cirad) Cheik Cissé (Consulting legal expert) Lassine Diarra (IER-CRRA) Almoustapha Fofana (DNH) Pierrick Givone (Cemagref) Housseini Maïga (DNH) Mamadou Kabirou N’Diaye (IER) Didier Orange (IRD) Pierre Sibiri Traoré (Icrisat/IER)
In an article critical of experts, the cases argued for and against nuclear power are discussed under the headings: environmental hazards arising from the nuclear fuel cycle; proliferation of nuclear weapons capabilities via expansion of the nuclear power industry; political and social threats and restraints of a nuclear society (terrorism, reduction in civil liberties, centralised political and economic power); economic and employment disadvantages of nuclear power; impact of uranium mining on (Australian) aboriginal culture; inadequacy of nuclear power as a solution to energy problems; advantages of a 'soft energy path' based around conservation and renewable energy technologies. (U.K.)
Limitations of Expert Evidence Edited by Stephen Leadbeatter MB ChB MCRPath ISBN 1 86016 029 8 Printed in Great Britain by Cathedral Print Services Ltd, Salisbury, 1996 Kitap 25 Ekim 1994 te The Royal College of Physicians ve The Royal College of Pathologists tarafından düzenlenen konferanstan sonra hekimlere ve avukatlara konuyu tartışmaya açmak için basılmış. Bilirkişi görüşünün temel filozofisinin, bu görevi yapanlar ve bu hizmeti alanların yapabileceklerin...
Throughout history, advances in technology have come in spurts. A single great idea can often spur rapid change as the idea takes hold and is propagated, often in totally unexpected directions. Exadata embodies such a change in how we think about and manage relational databases. The key change lies in the concept of offloading SQL processing to the storage layer. That concept is a huge win, and its implementation in the form of Exadata is truly a game changer. Expert Oracle Exadata will give you a look under the covers at how the combination of hardware and software that comprise Exadata actua
Hofmeister, Alan M.; Ferrara, Joseph M.
The article discusses the characteristics of expert systems (computer programs designed to replicate human expertise in a variety of areas), describes recently available expert system development tools, suggests applications within the field of special education, and reviews recent efforts to apply expert systems technology to special education…
In summary, there is a close analogical relationship between Expert Systems fundamental processes and Darwinian evolution processes: Just as evolution reaches a stabilization phase only after a successful mutation survives the natural selection, so does the new knowledge of the expert become a habit and noticeable only after it has been successfully transmitted as rules in the Expert System26.
Shadbolt, N. R.
This paper examines the origins, current state and future prospects for expert systems. The origins are traced from the schism with classic Artificial Intelligence. The characteristics of early expert systems are described and contrasted with more recent developments. A number of influential forces operating on present day systems are reviewed. The future trends in the evolution of expert systems are discussed.
Tsoukalas, L.; Ikonomopoulos, A.; Uhrig, R.E.
This paper presents a methodology that couples rule-based expert systems using fuzzy logic, to pre-trained artificial neutral networks (ANN) for the purpose of transient identification in Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In order to provide timely concise, and task-specific information about the may aspects of the transient and to determine the state of the system based on the interpretation of potentially noisy data a model-referenced approach is utilized. In it, the expert system performs the basic interpretation and processing of the model data, and pre-trained ANNs provide the model. having access to a set of neural networks that typify general categories of transients, the rule based system is able to perform identification functions. Membership functions - condensing information about a transient in a form convenient for a rule-based identification system characterizing a transient - are the output of neural computations. This allows the identification function to be performed with a speed comparable to or faster than that of the temporal evolution of the system. Simulator data form major secondary system pipe rupture is used to demonstrate the methodology. The results indicate excellent noise-tolerance for ANN's and suggest a new method for transient identification within the framework of Fuzzy Logic
Constantin, Anca; Feitosa, Klebert
We present here a program that aims at significantly diminishing the increasingly pervasive fear of approaching scientific concepts, particularly for people without math related backgrounds or interests. We built a series of grassroots yet unique science shows delivered in an up-beat, visually, and socially appealing environment, that bring forward the crucially needed bridge between the realm of scientific research and that of ordinary people through... comedy. While staged by two physics professors as hosts, the hilarious interactions between a science expert and a student-led improvisational comedy troupe constitute the main tool to unlock, decipher, and enjoy the mystery of the scientific research. Our program gets everyone in with lots of laughs, at no expense to academic quality, community involvement, diversity, excellence, integrity, and student focus. Our independent dedicated website for this project (sites.jmu.edu/demystifying), archives the podcasts (soundcloud.com/demystifying), short segment videos, blog posts, experts' bios, photo albums, testimonials, press releases, along with quantitative results of our assessment efforts. The overarching goal of this program is to pioneer a low cost yet efficient method of science education that can be replicated world wide.
Weiss, Kenneth J
In this clinical paper, the author discusses criminal confessions from the point of view of the expert witness who may be asked to comment on the reliability of the statement and waiver of rights. From the time a suspect is in police custody, constitutional protections against self-incrimination and for due process are in place. The Supreme Court set the standard for these situations in the 1966 Miranda v. Arizona decision. Although it has long been criticized by law enforcement, the decision was upheld in the 2000 decision in Dickerson v. U.S. For a waiver of rights to be valid, it must be a knowing, intelligent, and voluntary decision. Voluntariness is an equation of objective and subjective variables. Treatment by police, physical conditions of interrogation, the suspect's experience and mental state can alter the reliability of a confession. Accordingly, the author has devised a mnemonic for the recognition of conditions that may give rise to expert testimony. The conditions are: Mental illness, Intoxication, Retardation, Acquiescence, Narcotic withdrawal, Deception, and Abuse. These are discussed, supported by examples from the author's practice.
Full Text Available Limitations of Expert Evidence Edited by Stephen Leadbeatter MB ChB MCRPath ISBN 1 86016 029 8 Printed in Great Britain by Cathedral Print Services Ltd, Salisbury, 1996 Kitap 25 Ekim 1994 te The Royal College of Physicians ve The Royal College of Pathologists tarafından düzenlenen konferanstan sonra hekimlere ve avukatlara konuyu tartışmaya açmak için basılmış. Bilirkişi görüşünün temel filozofisinin, bu görevi yapanlar ve bu hizmeti alanların yapabileceklerinin sınırlarının tartışılması amaçlanmış.Seksen altı sayfadan oluşan kitabın fiatı on iki İngiliz Sterlini. Kitap üç bölüm ve bunların altında toplanan on ana başlıktan oluşmakta. Elinize aldığınızda küçük boyutu ve anlaşılır dili ile hemen okunup bitirelecek kitaplardan sanılıyor. En azından ben böyle düşünmüştüm. Ancak daha L A Tuınberg ve A J Bellinham’ın ön yazısında ben çarpıldım. Değerli yazarların kaleme aldığı başlıklar ve gündeme getirdiği tartışmaların tüm Adli Bilimlerle uğraşanların dikkatle okuması gereken cinsten olduğu kanısındayım. Birinci bölüm The Legal Perspective iki anabaşlıktan oluşuyor, The Criminal legal perspective Honour Judje Martin Stephens tarafından yazılmış,bilirkişi olarak görev yapabilmek için belgelenmiş bir eğitim olması gerektiği, mahkemelerde ya da yazılı raporlarda verilebilecek görüşlerin incelikleri tartışılmış. Bu bölümün ikinci anabaşlığı The civil legal perspective avukat Jennifer Cummin tarafından yazılmış. Toplum gözünde bilirkişinin anlamı ve mahkemenin bilirkişi görüşünü değişmez bilimsel doğru gibi algılayarak düştüğü bilimsel yanılgı ve raporlardaki kavram farkı dile getirilmiş. İkinci Bölüm The Medical And Scientific Perspective başlığı altında Roger C Evans MD Clinical evidence başlığında toplumun hasta tedavisi ve bilirkişilik hizmetinden beklentilerinin unrealistik olduğu ve
Long, Randall; Allison, Stephen
The objective of this study was to describe the history of South Australian Government eating disorder service from the perspective of changing leadership, health policies and politics. The history reveals a foundation of early expert academic clinical leadership changing into a centralised managerial bureaucracy correlating with a diminution of services. A threat to the survival of the service led to a solution involving reinvigoration of expert clinical and academic leadership. Expert leadership was shown to be an important part of an eating disorder service. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2016.
Cooper, E. G.
The Automation Technology Branch of NASA's Langley Research Center is employing increasingly complex degrees of operator/robot cooperation (telerobotics). A good relationship between the operator and computer is essential for smooth performance by a telerobotic system. ESG (Expert Script Generator) is a software package that automatically generates high-level task objective commands from the NASA Intelligent Systems Research Lab's (ISRL's) complex menu-driven language. ESG reduces errors and makes the telerobotics lab accessible to researchers who are not familiar with the comprehensive language developed by ISRL for interacting with the various systems of the ISRL testbed. ESG incorporates expert system technology to capture the typical rules of operation that a skilled operator would use. The result is an operator interface which optimizes the system's capability to perform a task remotely in a hazardous environment, in a timely manner, and without undue stress to the operator, while minimizing the chance for operator errors that may damage equipment. The intricate menu-driven command interface which provides for various control modes of both manipulators and their associated sensors in the TeleRobotic System Simulation (TRSS) has a syntax which is both irregular and verbose. ESG eliminates the following two problems with this command "language": 1) knowing the correct command sequence to accomplish a task, and 2) inputting a known command sequence without typos and other errors. ESG serves as an additional layer of interface, working in conjunction with the menu command processor, not supplanting it. By specifying task-level commands, such as GRASP, CONNECT, etc., ESG will generate the appropriate menu elements to accomplish the task. These elements will be collected in a script file which can then be executed by the ISRL menu command processor. In addition, the operator can extend the list of task-level commands to include customized tasks composed of sub
Tobita, Yoshimasa; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Matsumoto, Mitsuo; Ono, Kiyoshi.
The computer code system which can evaluate the mass balance and cycle cost in nuclear fuel cycle has been developing a PNC using an artificial intelligence technique. This system is composed of the expert system, data base and analysis codes. The expert system is the most important one in the system and the content of the expert system is explained in this paper. The expert system has the three functions. The first is the function of understanding the meaning of user's questions by natural language, the second is the function of selecting the best way to solve the problem given by the user using the knowledge which is already installed in the system, and the last is the function of answering the questions. The knowledge of the experts installed in the expert system is represented by the frame-type rules. Therefore, the knowledge will be simply added to the system, and consequently the system will be easily extended. (author)
Dunand, R.; Gondran, M.; Thomas, J.B.
The concepts and the steps to be taken into account for applying expert systems are reviewed. The role of expert systems as a new computer programming concept and the gain in productivity, flexibility and reliability by applying a programming methodology are underlined. The main components of the methodology applied are explained and illustrated. The application of expert systems in the design and operation of the nuclear power plants is presented. The experience acquired and the perspectives in the use of expert systems are discussed [fr
de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others
Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)
Grider, Daryl A.
Discusses expertise, what an expert system is, what an expert system shell is, what expert systems can and cannot do, knowledge engineering and technical communicators, and planning and managing expert system projects. (SR)
Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik
Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…
Mieg, Harald A.
Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…
Cohen, R.; Kjoelbye, L.; Aaslund, A.; Zwitserloot, R.
Views from four experts in the field of energy on the EU's energy policy, as laid down in the Third Package, are presented. Kjoelbye and Cohen argue about the pros and cons of unbundling, Aaslund defends the policy of reciprocity towards Gazprom, and Zwitserloot warns that Europe's anti-Gazprom policy endangers security of supply
Stoll, W.; Becker, K.
In an expert opinion written by Professor H. Kuni, Marburg, for the North Rhine-Westphalian state government, plutonium is called by far the most dangerous element in the Periodic Table. The Marburg medical expert holds that even improved legal instruments are unable to warrant effective protection of the workers handling this material, in the light of the present standards of industrial safety, because of radiological conditions and measuring problems with plutonium isotopes. In this article by an internationally renowned expert in the field, the ideas expressed in the expert opinion about the toxicity of plutonium, the cause-and-effect relationship in radiation damage by plutonium, and recent findings about the toxicity are subjected to a critical review. On the basis of results of radiation protection and of case studies, the statements in the expert opinion are contrasted with facts which make them appear in a very different light. (orig./RB) [de
Roysdon, Christine, Ed.; White, Howard D., Ed.
Eleven articles introduce expert systems applications in library and information science, and present design and implementation issues of system development for reference services. Topics covered include knowledge based systems, prototype development, the use of artificial intelligence to remedy current system inadequacies, and an expert system to…
Hofmeister, Alan M.; Ferrara, Joseph M.
The application of artificial intelligence to the problems of education is examined. One of the most promising areas in artificial intelligence is expert systems technology which engages the user in a problem-solving diaglogue. Some of the characteristics that make expert systems "intelligent" are identified and exemplified. The rise of…
-printer specialist solve their printer problems, and give time-based assistance to those who are in need of instant help when the maintenance experts are not handy. 2.0. Architecture of the LAPTEX Expert System. Working memory. (Fact base).
As part of SCK-CEN's social sciences and humanities programme, a reflection group on 'Expert Culture' was established. The objectives of the reflection group are: (1) to clarify the role of SCK-CEN experts; (2) to clarify the new role of expertise in the evolving context of risk society; (3) to confront external views and internal SCK-CEN experiences on expert culture; (4) to improve trust building of experts and credibility of SCK-CEN as a nuclear actor in society; (5) to develop a draft for a deontological code; (6) to integrate the approach in training on assertivity and communication; (7) to create an output for a topical day on the subject of expert culture. The programme, achievements and perspectives of the refection group are summarised
Jones, Darrick C.
One important goal of physics education is to help students develop reasoning patterns similar to those of expert physicists. To achieve this goal, physics educators must know what makes physics experts so successful at solving challenging physics problems. However, this dimension of physics expertise has not been fully explored by the physics education research (PER) community. In this dissertation, I describe several studies I have conducted that further the PER community's understanding of physics expertise. In these studies, I investigate how expert physicists reason as they solve unfamiliar, challenging physics problems by using a resource-based model of cognition to analyze videotaped recordings of problem solving sessions. By developing a way to determine when experts are making conceptual breakthroughs I analyze what resources experts use during conceptual breakthroughs. In the first study, I show that physics conceptual breakthroughs are characterized by reasoning which combines resources related to intuitive knowledge, higher level physics based conceptual knowledge, and epistemological knowledge. In the second study, I develop a way to reliably code for epistemological resources and determine what epistemological resources experts rely on most during conceptual breakthroughs. My findings show that experts rely on contrasting cases more often than any other epistemological resource. In the third study, I use variation theory to investigate how experts use contrasting cases. I look for patterns across all instances when experts use contrasting cases to make a conceptual breakthrough and show how scientific epistemology can be used to better understand experts' use of contrasting cases. I discuss how the findings of each study can be used to inform physics education.
Dobnikar, M.; Nemec, T.; Muehleisen, A.
Each type of an accident in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) causes immediately after the start of the accident variations of physical parameters that are typical for that type of the accident thus enabling its identification. Examples of these parameter are: decrease of reactor coolant system pressure, increase of radiation level in the containment, increase of pressure in the containment. An expert software enabling a fast preliminary identification of the type of the accident in Krsko NPP has been developed. As input data selected typical parameters from Emergency Response Data System (ERDS) of the Krsko NPP are used. Based on these parameters the expert software identifies the type of the accident and also provides the user with appropriate references (past analyses and other documentation of such an accident). The expert software is to be used as a support tool by an expert team that forms in case of an emergency at Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) with the task to determine the cause of the accident, its most probable scenario and the source term. The expert software should provide initial identification of the event, while the final one is still to be made after appropriate assessment of the event by the expert group considering possibility of non-typical events, multiple causes, initial conditions, influences of operators' actions etc. The expert software can be also used as an educational/training tool and even as a simple database of available accident analyses. (author)
This article briefly discusses the role of the expert physician witness at trial and describes what is emerging as the physician professional witness (AKA hired gun). The trial court's powers to evaluate the professionalism and objectivity of an expert witness are examined in light of a recent Western District Missouri Court of Appeals case. This case, while limited to its peculiar set of facts, permitted both a hearing and production of documents of a physician who had been hired to testify. This article reviews the role of the expert physician witness in Missouri litigation in light of recent caselaw outlining discovery procedures to monitor use of professional witnesses. The term "professional witness" does not refer to witnesses who are professionals, but rather to persons who make their entire living witnessing. The Missouri Court of Appeals ruling in State ex rel. Lichtor v. Clark, 845 S.W.2d (Mo.App. W.D. 1992) elucidates the Missouri Courts' authority in sorting out unprofessional physicians who would offer unobjective expert testimony. While this particular article is intended for medical readership and discusses expert physician witnesses, expert witnesses can come from any profession including engineering, accounting, nursing, etc. It might thus be assumed that the Lichtor Court's procedure may be applied to any expert whose objectivity has been put into question.
Seabrooke, Leonard; Tsingou, Eleni
to understand the different stresses in reports with and without clear mandates, and the role of important members of the policy community in promoting particular reform ideas. The contribution finds that differences in ideas emerging from the financial reform expert groups reflect nested power relationships......Who determines what ideas matter in reform debates? This contribution examines reform proposals from the expert groups that emerged during the recent international financial crisis. To do so it follows fractal distinctions – distinctions that replicate themselves in subsequent iterations – among...... the reports. Fractal distinctions, such as between ‘behaviour’ or ‘system’ as a reform focus, allow us to locate the object of regulation within expert groups, the experts' professional context and the politics behind the commissioning of work. Analysing fractal distinctions provides a useful way...
Janssen, José; Stoyanov, Slavi
Janssen, J., & Stoyanov, S. (2012, 20 November). Online Consultation for a Digital Competence Framework: Experts' views on Digital Competence. Workshop presentation at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville, Spain.
Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.
Expert robots will enhance safety and operations in nuclear plants. E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligent, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems
This page provides an overview Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System water quality modeling and decision support system designed for environmental impact assessment of mixing zones resulting from wastewater discharge from point sources
Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.
Expert robots enhance a safety and operations in nuclear plants. E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligence, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems
Wilson, Harold O.; Burford, Anna Marie
Delineates artificial intelligence/expert systems (AI/ES) concepts; provides an exposition of some business application areas; relates progress; and creates an awareness of the benefits, limitations, and reservations of AI/ES. (Author)
Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice
This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the "big three": Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically.
An expert system plays an important role on alleviating primarily shortage of experts in a specific area of interest. With the help of an expert system, personnel with little expertise can solve problems that require expert knowledge. In this paper all major aspects of an expert system development have been presented.
In today's complex world, we have come to rely increasingly on those who have expertise in specific areas and can bring their knowledge to bear on crucial social, political and scientific questions. Taking the viewpoint that experts are consulted when there is something important at stake for an individual, a group, or society at large, Experts in Science and Society explores expertise as a relational concept. How do experts balance their commitment to science with that to society? How does a society actually determine that a person has expertise? What personal traits are valued in an expert? From where does the expert derive authority? What makes new forms of expertise emerge? These and related questions are addressed from a wide range of areas in order to be inclusive, as well as to demonstrate similarities across areas. Likewise, in order to be culturally comparative, this volume includes examples and discussions of experts in different countries and even in different time periods. The topics include the r...
This study examines the role of experts in Chinas climate change policy. With the beginning of the UNFCCC process, many semi-official institutes and universities emerged, dealing with the scientific, economic and political aspects of climate change. The major argument presented here is that experts are important actors in Chinese climate change politics, and that they have been underestimated in research on China. This analysis has two aims: first, applying a science, policy interface model from regime theory, it examines the political impact of various research organizations during different stages of the policy-making process. In the second step, analysis turns to the causes behind the degree of impact. These include the relevance of administrative links, the quality of knowledge, and personal ties. The results show that, in particular, semi-official institutes and certain universities can have a very high impact on political action.(auth)
... the Experts | Diphtheria, Tetanus, Pertussis Ask the Experts Diphtheria, Tetanus, Pertussis Ask the Experts Home Administering Vaccines ... infants have died. How many doses of pediatric diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis (DTaP) vaccine does an infant ...
Hooghe, L.; Bakker, R.; Brigevich, A.; de Vries, C.; Edwards, E.; Marks, G.; Rovny, J.; Steenbergen, M.; Vachudova, M.
This research note reports on the 2002 and 2006 Chapel Hill expert surveys (CHES), which measure national party positioning on European integration, ideology, and several European Union (EU) and non-EU policies. The reliability of expert judgments is examined and the CHES data are cross-validated
Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.
Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.
The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute have initiated a broad-based exploration of means to evaluate the potential applications of expert systems in the nuclear industry. This exploratory effort will assess the use of expert systems to augment the diagnostic and decision-making capabilities of personnel with the goal of enhancing productivity, reliability, and performance. The initial research effort is the development and documentation of guidelines for verifying and validating (V and V) expert systems. An initial application of expert systems in the nuclear industry is to aid operations and maintenance personnel in decision-making tasks. The scope of the decision aiding covers all types of cognitive behavior consisting of skill, rule, and knowledge-based behavior. For example, procedure trackers were designed and tested to support rule-based behavior. Further, these systems automate many of the tedious, error-prone human monitoring tasks, thereby reducing the potential for human error. The paper version of the procedure contains the knowledge base and the rules and thus serves as the basis of the design verification of the procedure tracker. Person-in-the-loop tests serve as the basis for the validation of a procedure tracker. When conducting validation tests, it is important to ascertain that the human retains the locus of control in the use of the expert system
The feasibility of using expert systems as an aid in regulatory compliance functions has been investigated. A literature review was carried out to identify applications of expert systems to regulatory affairs. A bibliography of the small literature on such applications was prepared. A prototype system, ARIES, was developed to demonstrate the use of an expert system as an aid to a Project Officer in assuring compliance with licence requirements. The system runs on a personal computer with a graphical interface. Extensive use is made of hypertext to link interrelated rules and requirements as well as to provide an explanation facility. Based on the performance of ARIES the development of a field version is recommended
Ludtke, P. R.
This register presents the names of approximately 235 individuals who are considered experts, or very knowledgeable, in various fields of technology related to hydrogen. Approximately 90 organizations are represented. Each person is listed by organizational affiliation, address, and principal area of expertise. The criteria for selection of names for the register are extensive experience in a given field of work, participation in or supervision of relevant research programs, contributions to the literature, or being recognized as an expert in a particular field. The purpose of the register is to present, in easy form, sources of dependable information regarding highly technical areas of hydrogen technology, with particular emphasis on safety. The register includes two indexes: an alphabetical listing of the experts and an alphabetical listing of the organizations with which they are affiliated.
Yang, Longzhi; Neagu, Daniel; Cronin, Mark T D; Hewitt, Mark; Enoch, Steven J; Madden, Judith C; Przybylak, Katarzyna
Quality assessment (QA) requires high levels of domain-specific experience and knowledge. QA tasks for toxicological data are usually performed by human experts manually, although a number of quality evaluation schemes have been proposed in the literature. For instance, the most widely utilised Klimisch scheme1 defines four data quality categories in order to tag data instances with respect to their qualities; ToxRTool2 is an extension of the Klimisch approach aiming to increase the transparency and harmonisation of the approach. Note that the processes of QA in many other areas have been automatised by employing expert systems. Briefly, an expert system is a computer program that uses a knowledge base built upon human expertise, and an inference engine that mimics the reasoning processes of human experts to infer new statements from incoming data. In particular, expert systems have been extended to deal with the uncertainty of information by representing uncertain information (such as linguistic terms) as fuzzy sets under the framework of fuzzy set theory and performing inferences upon fuzzy sets according to fuzzy arithmetic. This paper presents an experimental fuzzy expert system for toxicological data QA which is developed on the basis of the Klimisch approach and the ToxRTool in an effort to illustrate the power of expert systems to toxicologists, and to examine if fuzzy expert systems are a viable solution for QA of toxicological data. Such direction still faces great difficulties due to the well-known common challenge of toxicological data QA that "five toxicologists may have six opinions". In the meantime, this challenge may offer an opportunity for expert systems because the construction and refinement of the knowledge base could be a converging process of different opinions which is of significant importance for regulatory policy making under the regulation of REACH, though a consensus may never be reached. Also, in order to facilitate the implementation
C++, and Microsoft C/C++ compilers. The personal edition is licensed for educational, research, and hobby use. Applications created with RT -Expert personal edition are not licensed for commercial purposes. Professional editions are available for commercial applications using DOS, Windows, and. Unix environments.
TNO Physics and Electronics laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Limburg and the Research Institute for Knowledge Systems, worked on a technology project named 'QUEST: Quality of Expert Systems' [FEL90]. QUEST was carried out under commision of the Dutch Ministry of Defence. A strong
The expert's role in the involvement in decisions on nuclear risks is discussed. The responsibility of scientists in ethics and in several sociological problems is highlighted. The mandates, the positivist reaction, way to knowledge, the scientist as a subject studying an object, and application in the domain of radioprotection are the main issues of the somewhat philosophical essay. (R.P.)
Race, Margaret S.; MacGregor, Donald G.; Slovic, Paul
As space scientists and engineers plan new missions to Mars and other planets in our solar system, they will face critical questions about the potential for biological contamination of planetary surfaces. In a society that places ever-increasing importance on the role of public involvement in science and technology policy, questions about risks of biological contamination will be examined and debated in the media, and will lead to the formation of public perceptions of planetary-contamination risks. These perceptions will, over time, form an important input to the development of space policy. Previous research in public and expert perceptions of technological risks and hazards has shown that many of the problems faced by risk-management organizations are the result of differing perceptions of risk (and risk management) between the general public and scientific and technical experts. These differences manifest themselves both as disagreements about the definition (and level) of risk associated with a scientific, technological or industrial enterprise, and as distrust about the ability of risk-management organizations (both public and private) to adequately protect people's health and safety. This report presents the results of a set of survey studies designed to reveal perceptions of planetary exploration and protection from a wide range of respondents, including both members of the general public and experts in the life sciences. The potential value of this research lies in what it reveals about perceptions of risk and benefit that could improve risk-management policies and practices. For example, efforts to communicate with the public about Mars sample return missions could benefit from an understanding of the specific concerns that nonscientists have about such a mission by suggesting areas of potential improvement in public education and information. Assessment of both public and expert perceptions of risk can also be used to provide an advanced signal of
Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.
This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer
Brim, Cornelia P.; Disney, Maren V.
NNSA is fostering the next generation of nuclear security experts is through its successful NNSA Graduate Fellowship Program (NGFP). NGFP offers its Fellows an exceptional career development opportunity through hands-on experience supporting NNSA mission areas across policy and technology disciplines. The one-year assignments give tomorrow’s leaders in global nuclear security and nonproliferation unparalleled exposure through assignments to Program Offices across NNSA.
Berman, Mark [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States); Springer, Jeremy [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States); Smith, Pepper [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States); Porse, Erik [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), Davis, CA (United States)
In October 2011, ARBI organized and conducted an Experts’ Meeting on the topic of performance guarantees and financing vehicles for Energy Efficiency Upgrades. The meeting brought together technical, policy, and financial experts, including researchers, experienced installation contractors, and innovative energy business leaders, in order to discuss the opportunities and challenges for the energy efficiency upgrade industry to increase market uptake of Home Energy Upgrades (HEUs) through innovative offerings, such as performance guarantees.
Hagemann, Kit S.; Scholderer, Joachim
between technical experts and consumers over the nature of the hazards on which risk assessments should focus, and perceptions of insufficient openness about uncertainties in risk assessment. Whilst previous research has almost exclusively focused on genetically modified foods, the present paper...... investigates plant varieties developed by means of mutation breeding, a less-debated class of novel foods. Two studies were conducted that investigated the mental models of experts and laypeople. The results revealed that the mental models of both groups differed in terms of scope, depth and the role...... of uncertainty. Furthermore, a number of misconceptions became apparent in the study of laypeople's mental models, often related to the regulatory system governing risk assessments of novel foods. Critical issue are outlined and communication needs are discussed....
Swett, H.A.; Fisher, P.; Mutalik, P.
Conventional medical expert systems deliver advice as text (a diagnosis, list, recommendation, or discussion). This may be quite useful in some areas of medical decision making but has distinct limitations in such a visually oriented discipline as diagnostic imaging, where decisions often depend on pattern recognition and the appreciation of subtle morphologic features. We are developing an expert system that displays groups of images as part of its intelligent output. This system uses a rule-based strategy to select images for display. They may be displayed because they share a common feature, cluster of features, or clinical history. Such a system may be useful as a diagnostic aid or for continuing medical education. It is likely to have particular value in the setting of picture archiving and communication systems
Aarnio, P.A.; Ala-Heikkil, J.J.; Hakulinen, T.T.; Nikkinen, M.T.
An expert system coupled with the gamma spectrum analysis system SAMPO has been developed for automating the qualitative identification of radionuclides as well as for determining the quantitative parameters of the spectrum components. The program is written in C-language and runs in various environments ranging from PCs to UNIX workstations. The expert system utilizes a complete gamma library with over 2600 nuclides and 80,000 lines, and a rule base of about fifty criteria including energies, relative peak intensities, genesis modes, half lives, parent-daughter relationships, etc. The rule base is furthermore extensible by the user. This is not an original contribution but a somewhat updated version of papers and reports previously published elsewhere. (author)
relevant cases quickly from a large memory -plus the requirement for an explicit theory of index content in the complex social domain where relevance often...Sep 89 - 31 Jan 92 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS " MEMORY -BASED EXPERT SYSTEMS" (U) 61102F 2304/A7 6. AUTHOR(S) Dr. Roger C. Schank 7...three problems: (1) The development of a robust memory -based parsing technology (Direct Memory Access Parsing, or DMP), (2) The development of case
Experts have been in charge of the formal business of development for 50-odd years. But despite good intentions, they cannot boast an impressive track record, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Sure, there has been progress on several fronts. But too many people still live in abject poverty, lack decent basic services, and suffer daily indignities at the hands of the very authorities meant to serve them.
Gupta, Shri N.; Arshak, Khalil I.; McDonnell, Pearse; Boyce, Conor; Duggan, Andrew
With the developments in the techniques of artificial intelligence over the last few years, development of advisory, scheduling and similar class of problems has become very convenient using tools such as PROLOG. In this paper an expert system has been described which helps lithographers and process engineers in several ways. The methodology used is to model each work station according to its input, output and control parameters, combine these work stations in a logical sequence based on past experience and work out process schedule for a job. In addition, all the requirements vis-a-vis a particular job parameters are converted into decision rules. One example is the exposure time, develop time for a wafer with different feature sizes would be different. This expert system has been written in Turbo Prolog. By building up a large number of rules, one can tune the program to any facility and use it for as diverse applications as advisory help, trouble shooting etc. Leitner (1) has described an advisory expert system that is being used at National Semiconductor. This system is quite different from the one being reported in the present paper. The approach is quite different for one. There is stress on job flow and process for another.
Intelligent control is a very successful way to transform the expert's knowledge of the type 'if the velocity is big and the distance from the object is small, hit the brakes and decelerate as fast as possible' into an actual control. To apply this transformation, one must choose appropriate methods for reasoning with uncertainty, i.e., one must: (1) choose the representation for words like 'small', 'big'; (2) choose operations corresponding to 'and' and 'or'; (3) choose a method that transforms the resulting uncertain control recommendations into a precise control strategy. The wrong choice can drastically affect the quality of the resulting control, so the problem of choosing the right procedure is very important. From a mathematical viewpoint these choice problems correspond to non-linear optimization and are therefore extremely difficult. In this project, a new mathematical formalism (based on group theory) is developed that allows us to solve the problem of optimal choice and thus: (1) explain why the existing choices are really the best (in some situations); (2) explain a rather mysterious fact that fuzzy control (i.e., control based on the experts' knowledge) is often better than the control by these same experts; and (3) give choice recommendations for the cases when traditional choices do not work.
Lallave, Juan Antonio; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon
Jung's theories of archetype, shadow, and the personal and collective unconscious provide a postmodern framework in which to consider the role of the expert witness in judicial proceedings. Archetypal themes, motifs, and influences help to illuminate the shadow of the judicial system and projections and behaviors among the cast of the court in pursuing justice. This article speaks to archetypal influences and dialectical tensions encountered by the expert witness in this judicial drama. The archetype of Justice is born from the human need for order and relational fairness in a world of chaos. The persona of justice is the promise of truth in the drama. The shadow of justice is untruth, the need to win by any means. The dynamics of the trickster archetype serve and promote injustice. These influences are examined by means of a case example. This approach will deepen understanding of court proceedings and the role of the expert witness in the heroic quest for justice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Ortiz, N.R.; Wheeler, T.A.; Breeding, R.J.; Hora, S.; Meyer, M.A.; Kenney, R.L.
The explicit expert judgment process used in NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Plants', is discussed in this paper. The main steps of the process are described, including selection of issues and experts, elicitation training, presentation of issues to the experts, preparation of issue analyses by the experts, discussion of issue analyses and elicitation, and recomposition and aggregation of results. To demonstrate the application of the expert judgment process to NUREG-1150, two issues are summarized: one from the accident frequency analysis, and one from the accident progression analysis. Recommendations and insights are provided to improve the use of explicit expert judgment in complex technical issues. (orig.)
Antoine, Edwige; Grabar, Natalia
Technical medical terms are complicated to be correctly understood by non-experts. Vocabulary, associating technical terms with layman expressions, can help in increasing the readability of technical texts and their understanding. The purpose of our work is to build this kind of vocabulary. We propose to exploit the notion of reformulation following two methods: extraction of abbreviations and of reformulations with specific markers. The segments associated thanks to these methods are aligned with medical terminologies. Our results allow to cover over 9,000 medical terms and show precision of extractions between 0.24 and 0.98. The results and analyzed and compared with the existing work.
Expert systems, a branch of artificial-intelligence studies, is introduced with a view to its relevance in transportation engineering. Knowledge engineering, the process of building expert systems or transferring knowledge from human experts to compu...
Decroix, Marjolein; Wazir, Mohd Rozilee Wazir Norjali; Zeuwts, Linus; Deconinck, Frederik; Lenoir, Matthieu; Vansteenkiste, Pieter
The aim of this study was to investigate visual behaviour of expert and non-expert ski athletes during an alpine slalom. Fourteen non-experts and five expert slalom skiers completed an alpine slalom course in an indoor ski slope while wearing a head-mounted eye tracking device. Experts completed the slalom clearly faster than non-experts, but no significant difference was found in timing and position of the turn initiation. Although both groups already looked at future obstacles approximately...
Chen, Hung-Hsuan; Ororbia II, Alexander G.; Giles, C. Lee
We describe ExpertSeer, a generic framework for expert recommendation based on the contents of a digital library. Given a query term q, ExpertSeer recommends experts of q by retrieving authors who published relevant papers determined by related keyphrases and the quality of papers. The system is based on a simple yet effective keyphrase extractor and the Bayes' rule for expert recommendation. ExpertSeer is domain independent and can be applied to different disciplines and applications since t...
This paper presents findings on expert perceptions of uncertainty in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology and policy in the UK, through survey data and semi-structured interviews with 19 individual participants. Experts were interviewed in industry, research, and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in the summer of 2009 and were asked to comment on a range of technical processes as well as policy concerns. The survey revealed that perceptions of the technology conform to a 'certainty trough' with users expressing the lowest level of uncertainty, and outsiders expressing the highest level of uncertainty. The interviews revealed that experts express certitude in the prospects for deploying large-scale CCS technology in the UK, all the while questioning several underlying technical and policy premises that are necessary to ensure this goal. - Highlights: → Expert perceptions of CCS in the UK are reported in interviews and a survey. → Surveyed perceptions conform to a 'certainty trough'. → Experts express certitude in prospect of large-scale CCS deployment in the UK. → Experts state that several technical and policy premises are necessary to ensure this goal. → Prospect of large-scale CCS deployment is observed to be highly belief-based.
Olmstadt, William J.
Discusses artificial intelligence and attempts to catalog expert systems. Topics include the nature of expertise; examples of cataloging expert systems; barriers to implementation; and problems, including total automation, cataloging expertise, priorities, and system design. (LRW)
The goal of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Expert Systems for Crash Data Collection Program was to use expert system technology to improve the accuracy and consistency of police-reported data. The program included the development and evalu...
Le, Thach C.
This paper describes a CLIPS-based fuzzy expert system development environment called FCLIPS and illustrates its application to the simulated cart-pole balancing problem. FCLIPS is a straightforward extension of CLIPS without any alteration to the CLIPS internal structures. It makes use of the object-oriented and module features in CLIPS version 6.0 for the implementation of fuzzy logic concepts. Systems of varying degrees of mixed Boolean and fuzzy rules can be implemented in CLIPS. Design and implementation issues of FCLIPS will also be discussed.
Prusinski, Ben; Chung, Richard
Expert Oracle GoldenGate is a hands-on guide to creating and managing complex data replication environments using the latest in database replication technology from Oracle. GoldenGate is the future in replication technology from Oracle, and aims to be best-of-breed. GoldenGate supports homogeneous replication between Oracle databases. It supports heterogeneous replication involving other brands such as Microsoft SQL Server and IBM DB2 Universal Server. GoldenGate is high-speed, bidirectional, highly-parallelized, and makes only a light impact on the performance of databases involved in replica
This paper discusses the results of an indepth interview survey of experts, both social and natural scientists, about estimates of the economic impact of potential greenhouse warming. The range of estimate impacts was enormous as was the difference between disciplines, particularly mainstream economists and natural scientists. The nineteen survey participants and their affiliations are listed. The general areas discussed in the paper include the following: survey development; estimation of subjective probabilities; description of different scenarios presented; discussion of pertinent answers and general trends in answers including influence of point of view; magnitude of problem; ecosystems; secondary effects; ability to adapt; regional distribution of impacts; nonmarket effects; limits to understanding. 7 figs
Shamsudeen, Riyaj; Yu, Kai; Farooq, Tariq
Expert Oracle RAC 12c is a hands-on book helping you understand and implement Oracle Real Application Clusters (RAC), and to reduce the total-cost-of-ownership (TCO) of a RAC database. As a seasoned professional, you are probably aware of the importance of understanding the technical details behind the RAC stack. This book provides deep understanding of RAC concepts and implementation details that you can apply toward your day-to-day operational practices. You'll be guided in troubleshooting and avoiding trouble in your installation. Successful RAC operation hinges upon a fast-performing netwo
Chernysheva, Tatiana Yurievna; Korchuganova, Mariya Anatolievna; Borisov, V. V.; Minkov, S. L.
Revealing experts' competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.
Chhipa, V.K.; Sengupta, M.
Artificial intelligence is an emerging technology in the field of computer application. Expert systems have been developed to imitate human intelligence and reasoning process. Expert systems have much scope of application in the decision making process in mineral exploration as such decisions are highly subjective and expert opinions are very helpful. This paper presents a small expert system to analyze the reasoning process in exploring for uranium deposits in sandstone
To illustrate where the fundamental difference between expert systems in classical diagnosis and in industrial control lie, the work of process control instrumentation is used as an example for the job of expert systems. Starting from the general process of problem-solving, two classes of expert systems can be defined accordingly. (orig.) [de
Robert E. Martin
Predicting the effects of fires in the year 2000 and beyond will be enhanced by the use of expert systems. Although our predictions may have broad confidence limits, expert systems should help us to improve the predictions and to focus on the areas where improved knowledge is most needed. The knowledge of experts can be incorporated into previously existing knowledge...
Canal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J. P.
In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos…
Brooks, H. M.
Explores what an intelligent information retrieval system involves and why expert system techniques might interest system designers. Expert systems research is reviewed with emphasis on components, architecture, and computer interaction, and it is concluded that information retrieval is not an ideal problem domain for expert system application at…
Full Text Available Expert systems are built with the help of: specialised programming languages or expert system generators (shell. But this structure was reached after tens of years of work and research, because expert systems are nothing but pragmatic capitalisation of the results of research carried out in artificial intelligence and theory of knowledge.
R. Legerstee (Rianne); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)
textabstractWe analyze the behavior of experts who quote forecasts for monthly SKU-level sales data where we compare data before and after the moment that experts received different kinds of feedback on their behavior. We have data for 21 experts located in as many countries who make
R. Legerstee (Rianne); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)
textabstractWe analyze the behavior of experts who quote forecasts for monthly SKU-level sales data where we compare data before and after the moment that experts received different kinds of feedback on their behavior. We have data for 21 experts located in as many countries who make SKU-level
Suen, Ching Y
This book is part of a new series on operational expert systems worldwide. Expert systems are now widely used in different parts of the world for various applications. The past four years have witnessed a steady growth in the development and deployment of expert systems in Canada. Research in this field has also gained considerable momentum during the past few years. However, the field of expert systems is still young in Canada. This book contains 13 chapters contributed by 31 experts from both universities and industries across Canada covering a wide range of applications related to electric
MacAllister, D.J.; Day, R.; McCormack, M.D.
This paper gives an overview of a major integrated oil company's experience with artificial intelligence (AI) over the last 5 years, with an emphasis on expert systems. The authors chronicle the development of an AI group, including details on development tool selection, project selection strategies, potential pitfalls, and descriptions of several completed expert systems. Small expert systems produced by teams of petroleum technology experts and experienced expert system developers that are focused in well-defined technical areas have produced substantial benefits and accelerated petroleum technology transfer
Hofmann, Katja; Balog, Krisztian; Bogers, Toine
Expertise-seeking research studies how people search for expertise and choose whom to contact in the context of a specific task. An important outcome are models that identify factors that influence expert finding. Expertise retrieval addresses the same problem, expert finding, but from a system......-centered perspective. The main focus has been on developing content-based algorithms similar to document search. These algorithms identify matching experts primarily on the basis of the textual content of documents with which experts are associated. Other factors, such as the ones identified by expertise......-seeking models, are rarely taken into account. In this article, we extend content-based expert-finding approaches with contextual factors that have been found to influence human expert finding. We focus on a task of science communicators in a knowledge-intensive environment, the task of finding similar experts...
... employees to provide expert or opinion testimony. 404.35 Section 404.35 Banks and Banking EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF THE UNITED STATES INFORMATION DISCLOSURE Demands for Testimony of Current and Former Ex-Im Bank... Bank documents. Any demand for expert or opinion testimony shall comply with the policies and...
Full Text Available Some remarks on the problem of knowledge representation and processing, as recognized in connection with the use of computers in the scientific research work, emphasizes the relevance of these problems for the studies on both the theory of languages and the expert system. A consideration of the common traits in the recent history of these studies, with reference to the use of computers on texts in natural language motivates the introduction of set theoretic and algebraic methods, suitable for applications in the analysis and in the automatic treatment of languages, based on the concept of model sets and on relational structures suggested from the connections between syntax and semantics evidenced in some example of sub-languages corresponding to theories of different classes of physical phenomena. Some details of these methods are evidenced, which have already successfully used or whose applications appears suggestive of interesting development.
Fedele, P.; Grandoni, G.; Mammarella, M.C.
The great debate concerning the Italian high-school reform has induced a ferment of activity among the most interested and sensible of people. This was clearly demonstrated by the course 'Innovazione metodologico-didattica e tecnologie informatiche' organized for the staff of the 'lstituto Professionale L. Einaudi' of Lamezia Terme. The course was an interesting opportunity for discussions and interaction between the world of School and computer technology used in the Research field. This three day course included theoretical and practical lessons, showing computer facilities that could be useful for teaching. During the practical lessons some computer tools were presented from the very simple Electronic Sheets to the more complicated information Retrieval on CD-ROM interactive realizations. The main topics will be discussed later. They are: Modelling, Data Base, Integrated Information Systems, Expert Systems, Information Retrieval. (author)
Viborg Andersen, Kim; Debenham, John; Wagner, Roland
submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on workflow automation, database queries, data classification and recommendation systems, information retrieval in multimedia databases, Web applications, implementational aspects of databases, multimedia databases, XML processing, security, XML......This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Database and Expert Systems Applications, DEXA 2005, held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in August 2005.The 92 revised full papers presented together with 2 invited papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 390...... schemata, query evaluation, semantic processing, information retrieval, temporal and spatial databases, querying XML, organisational aspects of databases, natural language processing, ontologies, Web data extraction, semantic Web, data stream management, data extraction, distributed database systems...
This article summarizes briefly the Senior Expert Symposium on Electricity and the Environment, held in May 1991. Four Expert Groups considered key issues: the implications for the global environment of energy and electricity supply and demand; energy sources and technologies for electricity generation; comparative environmental and health effects of different energy sources for electricity generation; and the incorporation of environmental and health impacts into policy, planning and decision making for the electricity sector. The conclusions of these groups are presented
Krauss, Daniel A; Lieberman, Joel D; Olson, Jodi
Past research examining the effects of actuarial and clinical expert testimony on defendants' dangerousness in Texas death penalty sentencing has found that jurors are more influenced by less scientific pure clinical expert testimony and less influenced by more scientific actuarial expert testimony (Krauss & Lee, 2003; Krauss & Sales, 2001). By applying cognitive-experiential self-theory (CEST) to juror decision-making, the present study was undertaken in an attempt to offer a theoretical rationale for these findings. Based on past CEST research, 163 mock jurors were either directed into a rational mode or experiential mode of processing. Consistent with CEST and inconsistent with previous research using the same stimulus materials, results demonstrate that jurors in a rational mode of processing more heavily weighted actuarial expert testimony in their dangerousness assessments, while those jurors in the experiential condition were more influenced by clinical expert testimony. The policy implications of these findings are discussed. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Minnullina, Anna; Abdrazakov, Rais
The authors’ expert assessment of the current state of the energy management system in the company is proposed in the article. The experts are invited to assess the status of the energy management system in the following categories: energy policy, organizational structure, training, motivation, control, communication, investment, and energy consumption culture. For the purposes of interpretation of the results of the expert evaluation obtained, a gradation based on a possible range of values is proposed. The expert evaluation allows representing the status of the energy management system in general and at each of its individual levels, which makes it possible to identify the problem areas more accurately. To confirm the applied nature of the proposed methodology, the authors assessed the opinions of 8 experts, employed by the road construction company of the Tyumen Region and related in one way or another to the process of energy consumption in the company due to the nature of their activities.
He, Xiang; Yan, Weixing; Fan, Yongxiang; Zeng, Biao; Peng, Zhen; Sun, Zhenqiu
Through investigating food safety standard framework among food safety experts, to summarize the basic elements and principles of food safety standard system, and provide policy advices for food safety standards framework. A survey was carried out among 415 experts from government, professional institutions and the food industry/enterprises using the National Food Safety Standard System Construction Consultation Questionnaire designed in the name of the Secretariat of National Food Safety Standard Committee. Experts have different advices in each group about the principles of food product standards, food additive product standards, food related product standards, hygienic practice, test methods. According to the results, the best solution not only may reflect experts awareness of the work of food safety standards situation, but also provide advices for setting and revision of food safety standards for the next. Through experts investigation, the framework and guiding principles of food safety standard had been built.
Cherry, C.; Hopfe, C.; MacGillivray, B.; Pidgeon, N.
Low carbon housing policies embody visions of the future that shape and constrain current choices between different technological pathways. These socio-technical imaginaries include expectations around new ways of living and interacting with technology, with implications for everyday lives. This paper investigates existing expert visions of low carbon housing, and explores these futures with members of the public; utilising empirical data from policy documents, expert interviews and public fo...
Risk perceptions and attitudes to genetically modified food (GMF) were investigated in a survey study of the public (N=469) and experts (N=49). The response rate was 47 percent for the public. For the experts, response rate was 60 percent. GMF technology was rated as the worst of 18 technologies by members of the public and highly replaceable. Experts had a very different view but also saw GMF as replaceable. Models of risk perceptions and attitudes with regard to policy and consumer intentio...
Ojczyk, C.; Huelman, P.; Carmody, J.
In the Expert Meeting Plan, the NorthernSTAR Team proposed to host two Expert Meetings in calendar year 2011. Invitees to the meetings would include experts in the current field of study, other BA team members, and representatives from DOE and NREL. They will invite leading industry experts to present at these meetings. The Expert Meetings will focus on key systems areas that will be required to meet the Building America performance goals and shall be sufficiently narrow in scope that specific conclusions, action items, and delegation of future tasks can be identified and completed. The two expert meeting topics are 'Foundations' and 'Window Retrofit.' The first session is designed as a webinar only and the second will be a live meeting.
Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.
Nondestructive assay waste characterization data generated for use in the National TRU Program must be of known and demonstrable quality. Each measurement is required to receive an independent technical review by a qualified expert. An expert system prototype has been developed to automate waste NDA data review of a passive/active neutron drum counter system. The expert system is designed to yield a confidence rating regarding measurement validity. Expert system rules are derived from data in a process involving data clustering, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms. Expert system performance is assessed against confidence assignments elicited from waste NDA domain experts. Performance levels varied for the active, passive shielded, and passive system assay modes of the drum counter system, ranging from 78% to 94% correct classifications
Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.
Nondestructive assay waste characterization data generated for use in the National TRU Program must be of known and demonstrable quality. Each measurement is required to receive an independent technical review by a qualified expert. An expert system prototype has been developed to automate waste NDA data review of a passive/active neutron drum counter system. The expert system is designed to yield a confidence rating regarding measurement validity. Expert system rules are derived from data in a process involving data clustering, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms. Expert system performance is assessed against confidence assignments elicited from waste NDA domain experts. Performance levels varied for the active, passive shielded, and passive system assay modes of the drum counter system, ranging from 78% to 94% correct classifications.
This article reviews the utility of expert opinion in legal proceedings and the deployment of expert witnesses in adversarial litigation. The use of expert witnesses to assist courts in making just and fair conclusions may be contrasted with the partisan interests of those who call them. An adversarial system is a bad method of scientific enquiry and undermines the court's capacity to reach the 'right' answer. As a consequence, courts may reach the wrong conclusion based on bad science. The role of the expert as a witness places strain on an expert to provide certainty, where in fact there may be none. Recent reforms in the civil courts have changed little and the problem is even more acute in criminal trials. The expert can rely solely on the integrity of his or her own opinion, tempered with a little humility. However, when filtered through the rhetoric and advocacy of a court arena, even this may be compromised.
Chernysheva, T. Y.; Korchuganova, M. A.; Borisov, V. V.; Min'kov, S. L.
Revealing experts’ competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.
A general description of expert systems is given. The operation of a fast reactor is reviewed. The expert system to the diagnosis of breakdowns limited to the reactor core. The structure of the system is described: specification of the diagnostics; structure of the data bank and evaluation of the rules; specification of the prediagnostics and evaluation; explanation of the diagnostics; time evolution of the system; comparison with other expert systems. Applications to some cases of faults are finally presented [fr
Dinuca Elena Claudia
Full Text Available In this article I focus on developing an expert system for advising the choice of wine that best matches a specific occasion. An expert system is a computer application that performs a task that would be performed by a human expert. The implementation is done using Delphi programming language. I used to represent the knowledge bases a set of rules. The rules are of type IF THEN ELSE rules, decision rules based on different important wine features.
Hernández-Martín, A; Torrelo-Fernández, A; de Lucas-Laguna, R; Casco, F; González-Sarmiento, R; Vega, A; Pedreira-Massa, J L; de Unamuno-Pérez, P; Larcher, F; Arroyo, I; Traupe, H
On June 22, 2012 the First Symposium of Ichthyosis Experts in Spain was held at the Hospital Niño de Jesús in Madrid. It was a one-day symposium for dermatologists, pediatricians, and physicians-in-training interested in this disease, as well as for other health care professionals involved in the care of patients with ichthyosis. The aim of the meeting was to try to structure the care of ichthyosis patients in Spain. As happens in other rare diseases, because of the low prevalence of ichthyosis and the absence of designated referral centers, the number of patients treated in each center is very low and few dermatologists have any real clinical experience with this condition or know how to order diagnostic genetic tests. This article summarizes the presentations given at the symposium and is intended as a reference for anyone interested in the subject. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier España, S.L. and AEDV. All rights reserved.
Padmini, S.; Diwakar, M.P.; Rathode, N.C.; Bairi, B.R.
An Expert System Development (ESD) Shell design implementation is desribed in detail. The shell provides high-level generic facilities for Knowledge Representation (KR) and inferencing and tools for developing user interfaces. Powerful set of tools in the shell relieves much of the programming burden in the ES development. The shell is written in PROLOG under IBM PC/AT. KR facilities are based on two very powerful formalisms namely, frames and rules. Inference Engine (IE) draws most of its power from unification and backward reasoning strategy in PROLOG. This basic mechanism is enhanced further by incorporating both forward and backward chaining of rules and frame-based inferencing. Overall programming style integrates multiple paradigms including logic, object oriented, access-oriented and imperative programming. This permits ES designer a lot of flexibility in organizing inference control. Creation and maintainance of knowledge base is a major activity. The shell, therefore, provides number of facilities to simplify these tasks. Shell design also takes note of the fact that final success of any system depends on end-user satisfaction and hence provides features to build use-friendly interfaces. The shell also provides a set of interfacing predicates so that it can be embedded within any PROLOG program to incorporate functionalilty of the shell in the user program. (author). 10 refs., 8 figs
Kirk, Bernadette Lugue [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cain, Ronald A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Dewji, Shaheen A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Agreda, Carla L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
This report describes a methodology for identifying, evaluating, and mitigating the loss of key technical skills at nuclear operations facilities. The methodology can be adapted for application within regulatory authorities and research and development organizations, and can be directly applied by international engagement partners of the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The resultant product will be of direct benefit to two types of NNSA missions: (1) domestic human capital development programs tasked to provide focused technical expertise to succeed an aging nuclear operations workforce, and (2) international safeguards programs charged with maintaining operational safeguards for developing/existing nuclear power program in nations where minimal available resources must be used effectively. This report considers succession planning and the critical skills necessary to meet an institution’s goals and mission. Closely tied to succession planning are knowledge management and mentorship. In considering succession planning, critical skill sets are identified and are greatly dependent on the subject matter expert in question. This report also provides examples of critical skills that are job specific.
Kirk, Bernadette Lugue; Cain, Ronald A.; Dewji, Shaheen A.; Agreda, Carla L.
This report describes a methodology for identifying, evaluating, and mitigating the loss of key technical skills at nuclear operations facilities. The methodology can be adapted for application within regulatory authorities and research and development organizations, and can be directly applied by international engagement partners of the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The resultant product will be of direct benefit to two types of NNSA missions: (1) domestic human capital development programs tasked to provide focused technical expertise to succeed an aging nuclear operations workforce, and (2) international safeguards programs charged with maintaining operational safeguards for developing/existing nuclear power program in nations where minimal available resources must be used effectively. This report considers succession planning and the critical skills necessary to meet an institution’s goals and mission. Closely tied to succession planning are knowledge management and mentorship. In considering succession planning, critical skill sets are identified and are greatly dependent on the subject matter expert in question. This report also provides examples of critical skills that are job specific.
Chiang, S.C.; Morimoto, C.N.; Torres, M.R.
At General Electric (GE), an on-line expert system to support maintenance decisions for BWR recirculation pumps for nuclear power plants has been developed. This diagnostic expert system is an interactive on-line system that furnishes diagnostic information concerning BWR recirculation pump operational problems. It effectively provides the recirculation pump diagnostic expertise in the plant control room continuously 24 hours a day. The expert system is interfaced to an on-line monitoring system, which uses existing plant sensors to acquire non-safety related data in real time. The expert system correlates and evaluates process data and vibration data by applying expert rules to determine the condition of a BWR recirculation pump system by applying knowledge based rules. Any diagnosis will be automatically displayed, indicating which pump may have a problem, the category of the problem, and the degree of concern expressed by the validity index and color hierarchy. The rules incorporate the expert knowledge from various technical sources such as plant experience, engineering principles, and published reports. These rules are installed in IF-THEN formats and the resulting truth values are also expressed in fuzzy terms and a certainty factor called a validity index. This GE Recirculation Pump Expert System uses industry-standard software, hardware, and network access to provide flexible interfaces with other possible data acquisition systems. Gensym G2 Real-Time Expert System is used for the expert shell and provides the graphical user interface, knowledge base, and inference engine capabilities. (author)
Ferrada, J.J.; Abraham, T.J.; Jackson, J.R.
An expert system has been developed as part of a new initiative for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) systems analysis program. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem, as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. 4 refs., 9 figs
Bohn, S.J.; Pennock, K.A.; Franklin, A.L.
The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is facing a large task in completing Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies (RI/FS) for hazardous waste sites across the nation. One of the primary objectives of an RI/FS is the specification of viable sequences of technology treatment trains which can provide implementable site solutions. We present a methodology which integrates expert system technology within an object-oriented framework to create a cooperative reasoning system designed to provide a comprehensive list of these implementable solutions. The system accomplishes its goal of specifying technology trains by utilizing a team'' of expert system objects. The system distributes the problem solving among the individual expert objects, and then coordinates the combination of individual decisions into a joint solution. Each expert object possesses the knowledge of an expert in a particular technology. An expert object can examine the parameters and characteristics of the waste site, seek information and support from other expert objects, and then make decisions concerning its own applicability. This methodology has at least two primary benefits. First, the creation of multiple expert objects provides a more direct mapping from the actual process to a software system, making the system easier to build. Second, the distribution of the inferencing among a number of loosely connected expert objects allows for a more robust and maintainable final product.
Bohn, S.J.; Pennock, K.A.; Franklin, A.L.
The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is facing a large task in completing Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies (RI/FS) for hazardous waste sites across the nation. One of the primary objectives of an RI/FS is the specification of viable sequences of technology treatment trains which can provide implementable site solutions. We present a methodology which integrates expert system technology within an object-oriented framework to create a cooperative reasoning system designed to provide a comprehensive list of these implementable solutions. The system accomplishes its goal of specifying technology trains by utilizing a ``team`` of expert system objects. The system distributes the problem solving among the individual expert objects, and then coordinates the combination of individual decisions into a joint solution. Each expert object possesses the knowledge of an expert in a particular technology. An expert object can examine the parameters and characteristics of the waste site, seek information and support from other expert objects, and then make decisions concerning its own applicability. This methodology has at least two primary benefits. First, the creation of multiple expert objects provides a more direct mapping from the actual process to a software system, making the system easier to build. Second, the distribution of the inferencing among a number of loosely connected expert objects allows for a more robust and maintainable final product.
Zarri, Gian Piero
Operational Expert System Applications in Europe describes the representative case studies of the operational expert systems (ESs) that are used in Europe.This compilation provides examples of operational ES that are realized in 10 different European countries, including countries not usually examined in the standard reviews of the field.This book discusses the decision support system using several artificial intelligence tools; expert systems for fault diagnosis on computerized numerical control (CNC) machines; and expert consultation system for personal portfolio management. The failure prob
Bohn, S.J.; Pennock, K.A.; Franklin, A.L.
The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is facing a large task in completing Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies (RI/FS) for hazardous waste sites across the nation. One of the primary objectives of an RI/FS is the specification of viable sequences of technology treatment trains which can provide implementable site solutions. We present a methodology which integrates expert system technology within an object-oriented framework to create a cooperative reasoning system designed to provide a comprehensive list of these implementable solutions. The system accomplishes its goal of specifying technology trains by utilizing a ''team'' of expert system objects. The system distributes the problem solving among the individual expert objects, and then coordinates the combination of individual decisions into a joint solution. Each expert object possesses the knowledge of an expert in a particular technology. An expert object can examine the parameters and characteristics of the waste site, seek information and support from other expert objects, and then make decisions concerning its own applicability. This methodology has at least two primary benefits. First, the creation of multiple expert objects provides a more direct mapping from the actual process to a software system, making the system easier to build. Second, the distribution of the inferencing among a number of loosely connected expert objects allows for a more robust and maintainable final product
Timilsina, Anga R
... (Cambodia, Mozambique, and Haiti) and expert opinions of 30 academicians and practitioners, this study identifies major reconstruction policies, outlines the preferred way to prioritize and sequence them, and develops a framework...
Rushlow, C. R.; Soderquist, B.; Cohn, T.; Eitel, K.
Science communication is often perceived by scientists as the flow of information from experts to non-experts, and institutions have responded by providing science communication training that focuses on best practices for disseminating information. This unidirectional approach neglects a key component of science communication: scientists must understand the needs and values of the stakeholders for whom they are producing information, whether the stakeholders are community members, resource managers, or policy makers. We designed an activity for graduate students enrolled in a science communication class at the McCall Outdoor Science School to both alert them to this misconception, and to give them an opportunity to rectify it. Over the course of 24-hours, we challenged students to have a conversation about climate change with someone they encountered in the community of McCall, ID. Using material from their conversations, students created a story in podcast or video form to share with the class. Through reflecting on this activity, students experienced a change in their perceptions of their identities as science communicators. Many students expressed an increased interest in listening to the stories of community members to learn more about the community's needs and values. We repeated the activity with early career scientists attending a climate workshop in McCall offered by the USGS Northwest Climate Science Center, focusing our evaluation around the science identity model of Carlone and Johnson (2007). Evaluations suggest that participants recognized their role as scientists in not only to providing information, but also in listening to the values and needs of the people for whom they are working. We believe this understanding is fundamental to being a good science communicator and ensuring that science remains relevant to communities.
Parker, Lisa; Rychetnik, Lucie; Carter, Stacy
To explore what Australian experts value in breast screening, how these values are conceptualised and prioritised, and how they inform experts' reasoning and judgement about the Australian breast-screening programme. Qualitative study based on interviews with experts. 33 experts, including clinicians, programme managers, policymakers, advocates and researchers selected for their recognisable influence in the Australian breast-screening setting. Australian breast-screening policy, practice and research settings. Experts expressed 2 types of values: ethical values (about what was good, important or right) and epistemological values (about how evidence should be created and used). Ethical values included delivering benefit, avoiding harm, promoting autonomy, fairness, cost effectiveness, accountability, professionalism and transparency. Epistemological values informed experts' arguments about prioritising and evaluating evidence methodology, source population and professional interests. Some values were conceptualised differently by experts: for example, delivering benefit could mean reducing breast cancer mortality, reducing all-cause mortality, reducing mortality in younger women, reducing need for aggressive treatment, and/or reassuring women they were cancer free. When values came into conflict, experts prioritised them differently: for example, when experts perceived a conflict between delivering benefits and promoting autonomy, there were differences in which value was prioritised. We explain the complexity of the relationship between held values and experts' overall views on breast cancer screening. Experts' positions in breast screening are influenced by evidence and a wide range of ethical and epistemological values. We conclude that discussions about values should be a regular part of breast-screening review in order to build understanding between those who hold different positions, and provide a mechanism for responding to these differences. Published by
Jones, R.D.; Barrett, C.L.; Hand, U.; Gordon, R.C.
The authors smoothed and captured a set of expert rules with adaptive networks. The motivation for doing this is discussed. (1) Smoothing leads to stabler control actions. (2) For some sets of rules, the evaluation of the rules can be sped up. This is important in large-scale simulations where many intelligent elements are present. (3) Variability of the intelligent elements can be achieved by adjusting the weights in an adaptive network. (4) After capture has occurred, the weights can be adjusted based on performance criteria. The authors thus have the capability of learning a new set of rules that lead to better performance. The set of rules the authors chose to capture were based on a set of threat determining rules for tank commanders. The approach in this paper: (1) They smoothed the rules. The rule set was converted into a simple set of arithmetic statements. Continuous, non-binary inputs, are now permitted. (2) An operational measure of capturability was developed. (3) They chose four candidate networks for the rule set capture: (a) multi-linear network, (b) adaptive partial least squares, (c) connectionist normalized local spline (CNLS) network, and (d) CNLS net with a PLS preprocessor. These networks were able to capture the rule set to within a few percent. For the simple tank rule set, the multi-linear network performed the best. When the rules were modified to include more nonlinear behavior, CNLS net performed better than the other three nets which made linear assumptions. (4) The networks were tested for robustness to input noise. Noise levels of plus or minus 10% had no real effect on the network performance. Noise levels in the plus or minus 30% range degraded performance by a factor of two. Some performance enhancement occurred when the networks were trained with noisy data. (5) The scaling of the evaluation time was calculated. (6) Human variation can be mimicked in all the networks by perturbing the weights.
... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Medical and Vocational Expert System. 405.10... Vocational Expert System. (a) General. The Medical and Vocational Expert System is comprised of the Medical... Vocational Expert System. (3) Experts who provide evidence at your request. Experts whom you ask to provide...
Orwig, Gary; Barron, Ann
Provides an overview of expert systems for teacher librarians. Highlights include artificial intelligence and expert systems; the development of the MYCIN medical expert system; rule-based expert systems; the use of expert system shells to develop a specific system; and how to select an appropriate application for an expert system. (11 references)…
Beers, Pieter J.; Geerling-Eiff, Florentien
Purpose: The purpose of this article is to compare the effectiveness of facilitated networks to other policy instruments for agricultural innovation. Design/ methodology/ approach: In an exploratory study of the Dutch agricultural policy context, we conducted semi-structured interviews with ten experts on networks and innovation. Policy…
Rijsdijk, Christiaan; Tinga, Tiedo
Motivation Maintenance policy assessments usually rely on expert judgement. We seek for some history based validation. Organisations may use our inference to assess risks of maintenance policy violations. Approach We depart from the arbitrary viewpoint that decisions have observable effects. We
Ms Suruchi Bhadwal
Proposed Framework. Policy and Practice. Review of literature and. Expert consultations. Practices and model adaptation projects. Regional initiatives and networks. Adaptation relevant policies and programmes. Biophysical Impacts. Social Vulnerability. Shared challenges. • Food security. • Water Stress. • DRR. • Health ...
Hoppe, Robertus; van Nispen, Frans; Scholten, Peter
This chapter focuses on the category of policy analysts who are located in advisory bodies as scientific experts, explicitly tasked as boundary workers in boundary organizations between science and policy/politics. A brief introduction (section 1) sets out the manifold and complex modes of
Franklin, J.E.; Carmody, C.L.; Buteau, B.L.; Keller, K.; Levitt, T.S.
This paper is concerned with the applications of expert systems to complex military problems. A brief description of needs for expert systems in the military arena is given. A short tutorial on some of the elements of an expert system is found in Appendix I. An important aspect of expert systems concerns using uncertain information and ill-defined procedures. Many of the general techniques of dealing with uncertainty are described in Appendix II. These techniques include Bayesian certainty factors, Dempster-Shafer theory of uncertainty, and Zadeh's fuzzy set theory. The major portion of the paper addresses specific expert system examples such as resource allocation, identification of radar images, maintenance and troubleshooting of electronic equipment, and the interpretation and understanding of radar images. Extensions of expert systems to incorporate learning are examined in the context of military intelligence to determine the disposition, location, and intention of the adversary. The final application involves the use of distributed communicating cooperating expert systems for battle management. Finally, the future of expert systems and their evolving capabilities are discussed
Cooke, Roger M.; Goossens, Louis L.H.J.
We review the applications of structured expert judgment uncertainty quantification using the 'classical model' developed at the Delft University of Technology over the last 17 years [Cooke RM. Experts in uncertainty. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1991; Expert judgment study on atmospheric dispersion and deposition. Report Faculty of Technical Mathematics and Informatics No.01-81, Delft University of Technology; 1991]. These involve 45 expert panels, performed under contract with problem owners who reviewed and approved the results. With a few exceptions, all these applications involved the use of seed variables; that is, variables from the experts' area of expertise for which the true values are available post hoc. Seed variables are used to (1) measure expert performance, (2) enable performance-based weighted combination of experts' distributions, and (3) evaluate and hopefully validate the resulting combination or 'decision maker'. This article reviews the classical model for structured expert judgment and the performance measures, reviews applications, comparing performance-based decision makers with 'equal weight' decision makers, and collects some lessons learned
Managers use prescribed fire to accomplish a variety of resource objectives. The knowledge needed to design successful prescriptions is both quantitative and qualitative. Some of it is available through publications and computer programs, but much of the knowledge of expert practitioners has never been collected or published. An expert system being developed at the,...
The formation and dispersion of tropospheric ozone are discussed only marginally in this expert opinion; the key interest is in the effects of ground level ozone on plants, animals, and humans. The expert opinion is based on an analysis of the available scientific publications. (orig./MG) [de
Walters, Jerry L.; Quinn, Todd M.
Autonomous Power Expert (APEX) computer program is prototype expert-system program detecting faults in electrical-power-distribution system. Assists human operators in diagnosing faults and deciding what adjustments or repairs needed for immediate recovery from faults or for maintenance to correct initially nonthreatening conditions that could develop into faults. Written in Lisp.
In our courtrooms you can meet, up to this day, experts of dubious qualities if not mere shams and deceivers. They are found in all sciences, but also in pseudo-sciences as paramedicine and parapsychology. In any case such expert pretenders must be exposed by the judge to prevent dangerous miscarriage of justice. Examples are given how to unmask the fraudulent rascals.
Bertel, E.; Fraser, P.
External costs of energy have been assessed in a number of authoritative and reliable studies based upon widely accepted methodologies such as life cycle analysis (LCA). However, although those costs are recognised by most stakeholders and decision makers, results from analytical work on externalities and LCA studies are seldom used in policy making. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) convened a joint workshop in November 2001 to offer experts and policy makers an opportunity to present state-of-the-art results from analytical work on externalities and debate issues related to the relevance of external costs and LCA for policy-making purposes. The findings from the workshop highlight the need for further work in the field and the potential rote of international organisations like the IEA and the NEA in this context. (authors)
An Artificial Intelligence-Expert System called APES (Analysis of Proliferation by Expert System) has been developed and tested to permit a non proliferation expert to evaluate the capability and capacity of a specified LWR reactor and PUREX reprocessing system for producing and separating plutonium even when system information may be limited and uncertain. APES employs an expert system coded in LISP and based upon an HP-RL (Hewlett Packard-Representational Language) Expert System Shell. The user I/O interface communicates with a blackboard and the knowledge base which contains the quantitative models required to describe the reactor, selected fission product production and radioactive decay processes, Purex reprocessing and ancillary knowledge
The book is a comprehensive narration of the use of expertise in international criminal trials offering reflection on standards concerning the quality and presentation of expert evidence. It analyzes and critiques the rules governing expert evidence in international criminal trials...... and the strategies employed by counsel and courts relying upon expert evidence and challenges that courts face determining its reliability. In particular, the author considers how the procedural and evidentiary architecture of international criminal courts and tribunals influences the courts' ability to meaningfully...... incorporate expert evidence into the rational fact-finding process. The book provides analysis of the unique properties of expert evidence as compared with other forms of evidence and the challenges that these properties present for fact-finding in international criminal trials. It draws conclusions about...
Agreement by experts on the risks of a technology is not to be expected, since future results are necessarily uncertain. Access to relevant information and analysis is necessary for effective participation of interested parties. The goal of making good decisions on waste management can be reached if the following are done: open policy discussions, involvement of other institutions, outside reviews of major policy analysis, public forums, continuing regulation/control, institutions outside the government, etc
Pelletier, D; Duffield, C; Adams, A; Nagy, S; Crisp, J; Mitten-Lewis, S
In Australia, nurses face a double-barreled challenge to their role. With the rapid adoption of new health care technologies coupled with increasing economic constraints, they find themselves "doing more with less." In this context of continuous change, it is useful to determine what expert nurse clinicians deem the most essential skills, attitudes and knowledge required for practice in complex technological environments. Separate panels of 28 educators and 43 cardiac nurse clinicians participated in a national Delphi study rating the importance to the nursing role of 107 items drawn from the international literature on expert practice and technology. Indicating the importance of each item in both the "real" and "ideal" worlds of practice, educators identified 58 items where they felt actual practice was substantially far from the ideal. For 16 of these items relating to empowerment of patients, nursing research, and technology policy, the educators rated clinical behavior below the median of the real world scale, indicating substandard performance of a role or inadequate assimilation of a concept. The implications for the definition of expert practice and for curricula development are discussed.
Guðbjörg Hildur Kolbeins
Full Text Available By employing the theoretical framework of framing, the present paper attempts to examine the Icelandic media’s coverage of the 2013 parliamentary election by paying particular attention to coverage of public opinion polls and the policies of the political parties, i.e. the “horse-race” frame and the issue frame, and to examine media’s reliance on experts for interpretation of election news. Seven online news media, two newspapers, two radio stations and two television channels were monitored for 25 days prior to Election Day, i.e. from April 2 to April 26, 2013, - resulting in 1377 election news stories. The findings show, for example, that 29.8% of all the election news stories had public opinion polls as their primary angle while 12% of the stories were primarily issue-oriented. In addition, the media rely on experts for interpretation of the polls; five of the 10 most interviewed or quoted sources on public opinion surveys were political science experts who were affiliated with universities. Finally, news coverage of polls was generally amplified as media outlets had a tendency to report on public opinion polls that were commissioned by other media.
Betty Estévez Cedeño
Full Text Available Science and technology governance has been a recurrent topic for debate in the recent years, both in the academic and the government areas. The perception of the governance of science from an expert’s point of view is a result of the empirical work carried out among the different players who design the science and technology regional policies in Spain. This analysis is completed with the Spanish citizen's appreciation on this subject, gotten from the national survey of social perception of science and technology carried out by the Spanish Foundation for Science and Technology (FECYT. The study shows that experts and the public consider a dialog among them as appropriate to build the governance of science. The public’s interest in these issues may causes that its responsibility is transferred to the experts. Furthermore, there is an ambivalent vision regarding the role citizens must play in this sort of actions. The lack of spaces and put into practice the appropriate methods so that a dialog between experts and stakeholders is still an unresolved matter in order to build up some good governance.
Martinez i Coma, F.; van Ham, C.T.
Expert surveys have been used to measure a wide variety of phenomena in political science, ranging from party positions, to corruption, to the quality of democracy and elections. However, expert judgments raise important validity concerns, both about the object being measured as well as the experts.
of poverty reduction. In 2014, the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA) and United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) launched a joint research project: The Practice of Industrial Policy. The aim is to help African policy makers develop better...... coordination between public and private sectors in order to identify the constraints to faster structural transformation and design, implement, and monitor policies to remove them. This book, written by national researchers and international experts, presents the results of that research by combining a set...
Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.
Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed
Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan
Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops.
Correia, Aldina; Costa e Silva, Eliana; Lopes, Isabel C.; Braga, Alexandra
Global Entrepreneurship Monitor is a large scale database for internationally comparative entrepreneurship that includes information about many aspects of entrepreneurship activities, perceptions, conditions, national and regional policy, among others, of a large number of countries. This project has two main sources of primary data: the Adult Population Survey and the National Expert Survey. In this work the 2011 and 2012 National Expert Survey datasets are studied. Our goal is to analyze the effects of the different type of entrepreneurship expert specialization on the perceptions about the Entrepreneurial Framework Conditions. For this purpose the multivariate analysis of variance is used. Some similarities between the results obtained for the 2011 and 2012 datasets were found, however the differences between experts still exist.
Kallimanis, A S; Panitsa, M; Dimopoulos, P
EU biodiversity conservation policy is based on the Habitats Directive (92/43/EC), which aims that habitat types and species of Community interest should reach 'favourable conservation status'. To this end, Member States are obliged to perform periodic assessment of species and habitat conservation status through biodiversity monitoring, which, in almost all cases, was performed by experts implementing standardized field protocols. Here, we examine the quality of data collected in the field by non-experts (citizen scientists) for the conservation status assessment of habitat types, and specifically for the criteria 'typical species', 'specific structures and functions', and 'pressures and threats'. This task is complicated and demands different types of field data. We visited two Natura 2000 sites and investigated four habitat types (two in each site) with non-experts and compared their data to the data collected by experts for accuracy, completeness and spatial arrangement. The majority of the non-expert data were accurate (i.e. non-experts recorded information they observed in the field), but they were incomplete (i.e. non-experts detected less information than the experts). Also, non-experts chose their sampling locations closer to the edge of the habitat, i.e. in more marginal conditions and thus in potentially more degraded conditions, than experts.
Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter; Sørensen, Helge Bjarup Dissing
with higher reliability than the estimation of spindle duration. Reliability of sleep spindle scoring can be improved by using qualitative confidence scores, rather than a dichotomous yes/no scoring system. Conclusions We estimate that 2–3 experts are needed to build a spindle scoring dataset......Objectives To measure the inter-expert and intra-expert agreement in sleep spindle scoring, and to quantify how many experts are needed to build a reliable dataset of sleep spindle scorings. Methods The EEG dataset was comprised of 400 randomly selected 115 s segments of stage 2 sleep from 110...... sleeping subjects in the general population (57 ± 8, range: 42–72 years). To assess expert agreement, a total of 24 Registered Polysomnographic Technologists (RPSGTs) scored spindles in a subset of the EEG dataset at a single electrode location (C3-M2). Intra-expert and inter-expert agreements were...
Koehler, Derek J
Media critics have expressed concern that journalistic "false balance" can distort the public's perceptions of what ought to be noncontroversial subjects (e.g., climate change). I report several experiments testing the influence of presenting conflicting comments from 2 experts who disagree on an issue (balance condition) in addition to a complete count of the number of experts on a panel who favor either side. Compared with a control condition, who received only the complete count, participants in the balance condition gave ratings of the perceived agreement among the experts that did not discriminate as clearly between issues with and without strong expert consensus. Participants in the balance condition also perceived less agreement among the experts in general, and were less likely to think that there was enough agreement among experts on the high-consensus issues to guide government policy. Evidently, "false balance" can distort perceptions of expert opinion even when participants would seem to have all the information needed to correct for its influence. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).
As part of the preparation for the up-coming International Conference on Population and Development, an expert group met at UN headquarters on January 20-24, 1992. The group noted that the momentum of population growth was expected to add 3 billion people to the global population between 1985 and 2025, with more than 90% of the growth occurring in the developing countries which are least able to respond to the attendant resource and environmental demands. The expert group discussed the interaction of population and resources, specifically the impact of population growth on the environment and carrying capacity. The meeting then focused on environmental discontinuities and uncertainties and on environmental degradation, specifically the loss of agricultural land, the destruction of tropical forests, fresh-water resource, the loss of biological diversify, and climate change. Following their deliberations, the expert group drafted 18 recommendations addressed to governments, social institutions, and international organizations. The group urged that governments establish or strengthen the integration of environmental and population concerns into development policy-making and planning and support technologies to achieve sustained economic growth and development while striving to replace the use of fossil fuels with renewable resources. Areas of the environment subject to acute population pressure should be identified and policies devised to reduce that pressure. Ecologically helpful labor-intensive projects should be implemented for their dual benefits. Women should be included in these activities, and their status in society, therefore, should be improved through improved education and participatory opportunities. The uses of water should be optimized to acknowledge its scarcity. The delivery of service to alleviate poverty should proceed in a manner that invites community participation, which, along with education, will be vital to institute these changes. Adequate
Skyllingstad, E.D.; Ramsdell, J.V.
A prototype expert system designed to diagnose dispersion model uncertainty is described in this paper with application to a puff transport model. The system obtains qualitative information from the model user and through an expert-derived knowledge base, performs a rating of the current simulation. These results can then be used in combination with dispersion model output for deciding appropriate evacuation measures. Ultimately, the goal of this work is to develop an expert system that may be operated accurately by an individual uneducated in meteorology or dispersion modeling. 5 refs., 3 figs
Decroix, Marjolein; Wazir, Mohd Rozilee Wazir Norjali; Zeuwts, Linus; Deconinck, Frederik F J A; Lenoir, Matthieu; Vansteenkiste, Pieter
The aim of this study was to investigate visual behaviour of expert and non-expert ski athletes during an alpine slalom. Fourteen non-experts and five expert slalom skiers completed an alpine slalom course in an indoor ski slope while wearing a head-mounted eye tracking device. Experts completed the slalom clearly faster than non-experts, but no significant difference was found in timing and position of the turn initiation. Although both groups already looked at future obstacles approximately 0,5s before passing the upcoming pole, the higher speed of experts implied that they shifted gaze spatially earlier in the bend than non-experts. Furthermore, experts focussed more on the second next pole while non-expert slalom skiers looked more to the snow surface immediately in front of their body. No difference was found in the fixation frequency, average fixation duration, and quiet eye duration between both groups. These results suggest that experts focus on the timing of their actions while non-experts still need to pay attention to the execution of these actions. These results also might suggest that ski trainers should instruct non-experts and experts to focus on the next pole and, shift their gaze to the second next pole shortly before reaching it. Based on the current study it seems unadvisable to instruct slalom skiers to look several poles ahead during the actual slalom. However, future research should test if these results still hold on a real outdoor slope, including multiple vertical gates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Against the backdrop of ten years of punitive criminal justice policies, the number of cases in which risk assessments by psychiatrist experts are mandatory has considerably increased in France. Because of complex and deeply ingrained cultural factors, most experts and academics oppose the use of actuarial or other structured judgement tools, which they assimilate to these policy changes. Parallel to this, the reentry judges in charge of making release and other community sentence decisions have maintained a strong rehabilitative and desistance-focused culture. Drawing on interviews with these judges and experts, the author wanted to assess the judges' expectations of experts' reports, their opinion on actuarial tools, and how they perceived experts and their aptitude to assess risk. The study showed that French reentry judges manage to keep experts' conclusions at bay when they do not fit with their desistance goals, as they can draw upon their own expertise and that of probation services. They do not have much faith in the professionalism and methodology of experts, and would like them to better demonstrate how they reach their conclusions. Moreover, criminogenic needs assessment would be much more useful to them than static risk assessment, which raises the issue as to why this is not the French probation services' role. Reentry judges who never encountered a report which uses a structured tool are influenced by the French ideological debate; those who have read such reports are unanimously in favour of such tools. It thus seems clear that they would like experts to be more strongly guided by science, but are not yet fully aware of what this entails. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Andres Velasco; Alejandro Neut
We revisit the question of what determines the credibility of macroeconomic policies here, of promises to repay public debt. Almost all thinking on the issue has focused on governments' strategic decision to default (or erode the value of outstanding debt via inflation/devaluation). But sometimes governments default not because they want to, but because they cannot avoid it: adverse shocks leave them no option. We build a model in which default/devaluation can occur deliberately (for strategi...
... (military, sporting or business teams). This suggests that expert teams may be utilising shared mental models of both the roles of their teammates and how they should be working together in a group situation...
This research was performed to enhance the software tool (Illinois Construction Scheduling Expert : System, ICSES) developed in Phase I of this project (ICT project R27-86) by mining data collected on : IDOT construction projects and differentiating ...
Hinrichsen, Gregory A.; Kietzman, Kathryn G.; Alkema, Gretchen E.; Bragg, Elizabeth J.; Hensel, Brian K.; Miles, Toni P.; Segev, Dorry L.; Zerzan, Judy
Aging of the U.S. population raises numerous public policy issues about which gerontological researchers, policy experts, and practitioners have much to contribute. However, the means by which aging-related public policy is influenced are not always apparent. Drawing on experience working in the U.S. Senate and other settings as Health and Aging…
New Agenda: South African Journal of Social and Economic Policy: Editorial Policies. Journal Home > About the Journal ... This is a policy journal analyzing social and economic issues in South Africa. We publish infomed articles by experts and ... Publication Frequency. This journal publishes quarterly (4 issues per year).
Bessenyei, Z.; Tomcsanyi, T.; Toth, Z.; Laczay, I.
In 1990, an expert system for turbo-generator diagnostics (EST-D) was installed at the 3rd and 4th units of the Paks NPP (Hungary). The expert system is strongly integrated to the ARGUS II vibration monitoring and diagnostics system. The system works on IBM PC AT. The VEIKI's and the NPP's human experts were interviewed to fill up the knowledgebase. The system is able to identify 13 different faults of the parts of a turbogenerator. The knowledgebase consists of ca 200 rules. The rules were built in and the system was verified and validated using a model of the turbines and using the experiences gathered with ARGUS II during the last 3 years. The maintenance personnel is authorized to modify and/or extend the knowledgebase. The input data for evaluation come from measured vibration patterns produced by the ARGUS II system, database of events, and maintenance data input by the maintenance personnel. The expert system is based on the modified GENESYS 2.1 shell (developed by SZAMALK, Hungary). Some limitations from PC application were eliminated, and a new, independent explanation module and man-machine interface were developed. Using this man-machine interface, one of the basic goals of the expert system developments was achieved: the human experts contribution is not necessary for diagnoses. The operator of the diagnostics system is able to produce the reports of diagnoses. Of course the interface allows the human experts to see the diagnoses through. It should be mentioned, at the beginning of 1991, we installed a similar expert system at the 1st 1000 MW WWER type unit of the Kalinin NPP (Soviet Union). In this paper, the operation of the EST-D, the man-machine interface and the operational experiences of the first 4 months work are explained. 2 refs., 14 figs
This report describes Jess, a clone of the popular CLIPS expert system shell written entirely in Java. Jess supports the development of rule-based expert systems which can be tightly coupled to code written in the powerful, portable Java language. The syntax of the Jess language is discussed, and a comprehensive list of supported functions is presented. A guide to extending Jess by writing Java code is also included.
M.C. Traub (Myriam); J.R. van Ossenbruggen (Jacco); J. He (Jiyin); L. Hardman (Lynda); M. de Rijke (Maarten); T Kentner; A.P. de Vries (Arjen); F.M.G. de Jong (Franciska); C. Zhai (ChengXiang ); K. Hofmann (Katja); K. Radinsky
htmlabstractTasks that require users to have expert knowledge are diffi- cult to crowdsource. They are mostly too complex to be carried out by non-experts and the available experts in the crowd are difficult to target. Adapting an expert task into a non-expert user task, thereby enabling the
Morris, Gavin; O'Connor, Donna
Experiential knowledge of elite National Rugby League (NRL) referees was investigated to determine the key attributes contributing to expert officiating performance. Fourteen current first-grade NRL referees were asked to identify the key attributes they believed contributed to their expert refereeing performance. The modified Delphi method involved a 3-round process of an initial semi-structured interview followed by 2 questionnaires to reach consensus of opinion. The data revealed 25 attributes that were rated as most important that underpin expert NRL refereeing performance. Results illustrate the significance of the cognitive category, with the top 6 ranked attributes all cognitive skills. Of these, the referees ranked decision-making accuracy as the most important attribute, followed by reading the game, communication, game understanding, game management and knowledge of the rules. Player rapport, positioning and teamwork were the top ranked game skill attributes underpinning performance excellence. Expert referees also highlighted a number of psychological attributes (e.g., concentration, composure and mental toughness) that were significant to performance. There were only 2 physiological attributes (fitness, aerobic endurance) that were identified as significant to elite officiating performance. In summary, expert consensus was attained which successfully provided a hierarchy of the most significant attributes of expert NRL refereeing performance.
As part of the preparation for the up-coming International Conference on Population and Development sponsored by the UN, an expert group met in June 1992 in Botswana to consider issues related to population and women. Particular attention was devoted to gender equality, population, and development; reproductive health and the health of families; adolescent fertility, marriage, and reproductive health; family planning (FP) and FP programs; education of girls and women and the relationship of education to fertility, health, and welfare; women's economic activity and its relationship to demographic factors; and the relationship between women, population, and the environment. While both developed and developing countries were considered, the emphasis was on the latter. 32 recommendations for action were addressed primarily to governments and other social institutions and also to funding agencies. The recommendations call for a recognization that health and education are particularly critical for women. They ask for the development of gender-based analysis and assessment of development policies to discover their impact on women. Service delivery to women should be culturally appropriate, and women should be integrated into development initiatives and into management and policy-making levels of social institutions. Responsible parenthood should be promoted as should the assumption of familiar responsibilities by men. Women should have access to safe abortion services. Adolescents should receive the education necessary to protect their reproductive health, and a minimum marriage age should be adopted. FP programs should be appropriate to their clients and should provide safe methods of fertility regulation. Improved and safe contraceptives and pharmaceuticals which will protect against sexually transmitted diseases should be developed, with renewed emphasis placed on new contraceptives for men. Safe sex measures should be promoted. The health of girls and women should
When members were first canvassed for participation in the Vadose Zone Expert Panel the stated purpose for convening the Panel was to review a controversial draft report, the SX Tank Farm Report. This report was produced by a DOE Grand Junction Project Office (GJPO) contractor, RUST Geotech, now MACTEC-ERS, for the DOE Richland Office (DOERL). Three meetings were planned for June, July and August, 1995 to review the draft report and to complete a Panel report by mid-September. The Expert Panel has found its efforts confounded by various non-technical issues. The Expert Panel has chosen to address some of the non-technical issues in this Preface rather than to dilute the technical discussion that follows in the body of this independent expert panel status report (Panel Report). Rather than performing a straightforward manuscript review, the Panel was asked to resolve conflicting interpretations of gamma-ray logging measurements performed in vadose zone boreholes (drywells) surrounding the high-level radioactive wastes of the SX tank farm. There are numerous and complex technical issues that must be evaluated before the vertical and radial extent of contaminant migration at the SX tank farm can be accurately assessed. When the Panel first met in early June, 1996, it quickly became apparent that the scientific and technical issues were obscured by policy and institutional affairs which have polarized discussion among various segments of the Hanford organization. This situation reflects the kinds of institutional problems described separately in reports by the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS/NRC), The Hanford Tanks Environmental Impacts and Policy Choices and BmTiers to Science: Technical Management of the Department of Energy Environmental Remediation Program. The Vadose Zone Characterization Program, appears to be caught between conflicting pressures and organizational mandates, some imposed from outside DOE-RL and some self
Hukki, Kristiina; Pulkkinen, Urho
Faced with problems of public acceptance most nuclear waste management organisations now acknowledge the importance of transparency in their pursuit of solutions for high-level nuclear waste disposal. To make progress the implementing organizations need the trust of other stakeholders in the decision-making process. For such trust these outside stakeholders need knowledge on the grounds for the judgments and decisions made in different scientific and technical disciplines. Transparency is, however, at least as important for the multidisciplinary expert communication itself. As a matter of fact, the transparency of the internal expert interaction processes is a prerequisite for the true transparency of the communication between the implementer and the external stakeholder groups. The introduced conceptual framework has been developed for the identification of the requirements of safety-informed communication in multidisciplinary expert work in nuclear waste management. The framework offers a common thinking model and common concepts which can be utilized in the development of the communication practices. The basis of the framework is on the possibility to understand the safety-critical significance of one's work. The transparency of communication is, for its part, based on making explicit the relevant knowledge necessary for gaining the understanding. This supplementary knowledge, which is related to the substance issues but is not scientific-technical by nature, enhances the experts' awareness of the context of their own contribution and of the background of the other experts' contributions. The common conceptualization and modelling of the knowledge-related dependencies between the tasks make it possible to realize the significance of the supplementary knowledge for transparent communication in actual situations. They also facilitate the recognition of the need for different types of supplementary knowledge in the interfaces between the tasks. By enhancing mutual
Results and Conclusion: Response rate was 61%. Majority of experts considered implementation status of ISM and H Policy as poor. Lack of quality education was mentioned as major factor responsible for current scenario of ISM and H Policy by most of experts. Lack of funds and government support were emerged as major bottlenecks in implementation of ISM and H Policy.
Full Text Available Utilization of expert effort estimation approach shows promising results when it is applied to software development process. It is based on judgment and decision making process and due to comparative advantages extensively used especially in situations when classic models cannot be accounted for. This becomes even more accentuated in today’s highly dynamical project environment. Confronted with these facts companies are placing ever greater focus on their employees, specifically on their competences. Competences are defined as knowledge, skills and abilities required to perform job assignments. During effort estimation process different underlying expert competences influence the outcome i.e. judgments they express. Special problem here is the elicitation, from an input collection, of those competences that are responsible for accurate estimates. Based on these findings different measures can be taken to enhance estimation process. The approach used in study presented in this paper was targeted at elicitation of expert estimator competences responsible for production of accurate estimates. Based on individual competences scores resulting from performed modeling experts were ranked using weighted scoring method and their performance evaluated. Results confirm that experts with higher scores in competences identified by applied models in general exhibit higher accuracy during estimation process. For the purpose of modeling data mining methods were used, specifically the multilayer perceptron neural network and the classification and regression decision tree algorithms. Among other, applied methods are suitable for the purpose of elicitation as in a sense they mimic the ways human brains operate. Data used in the study was collected from real projects in the company specialized for development of IT solutions in telecom domain. The proposed model, applied methodology for elicitation of expert competences and obtained results give evidence that in
One dominant aspect of improvement in safe nuclear power plant operation is the very high speed in the development and introduction of computer technologies. This development commenced recently when advanced control technology was incorporated into the nuclear industry. This led to an increasing implementation of information displays, annunciator windows and other devices inside the control room, eventually overburdening the control room operator with detailed information. Expert systems are a further step in this direction being designed to apply large knowledge bases to solve practical problems. These ''intelligent'' systems have to incorporate enough knowledge to reach expert levels of importance and represent a very advanced man-machine interface. The aims of the Technical Committee were addressed by the three Working Groups and summarized in Sections 2, 3 and 4 of this report. Section 2 summarizes the results and discussions on the current capabilities of expert systems and identifies features for the future development and use of Expert Systems in Nuclear Power Plants. Section 3 provides an overview of the discussions and investigations into the current status of Expert Systems in NPPs. This section develops a method for assessing the overall benefit of different applications and recommends a broad strategy for priority developments of Expert Systems in NPPs. Section 4 assesses the overall use of PSA type studies in Expert Systems in NPPs and identifies specific features to be adopted in the design of these systems in future applications. The conclusions of the three Working Groups are presented in Section 5. The 15 papers presented at the meeting formed the Annex of this document. A separate abstract was prepared for each of these papers. Refs, figs, tabs and pictures
Hughes, Peter M. (Inventor); Luczak, Edward C. (Inventor)
A system and method provides for the creation of a highly graphical expert system without the need for programming in code. An expert system is created by initially building a data interface, defining appropriate Mission, User-Defined, Inferred, and externally-generated GenSAA (EGG) data variables whose data values will be updated and input into the expert system. Next, rules of the expert system are created by building appropriate conditions of the rules which must be satisfied and then by building appropriate actions of rules which are to be executed upon corresponding conditions being satisfied. Finally, an appropriate user interface is built which can be highly graphical in nature and which can include appropriate message display and/or modification of display characteristics of a graphical display object, to visually alert a user of the expert system of varying data values, upon conditions of a created rule being satisfied. The data interface building, rule building, and user interface building are done in an efficient manner and can be created without the need for programming in code.
So-called First Generation Expert Systems were aimed at capturing the expert's know-how. Though providing remarkable achievements, this first wave did not give the expected outcome. A new generation is getting out from the laboratories. Instead of remaining at a shallow level of knowledge - that is the unmotivated reasoning processes expressed by an expert when he is forced to tell them - one attempts to re-build this level of knowledge from the first principles which constitute the basis of an expert's knowledge. These systems are called deep knowledge-based, or second generation expert systems. Discussion in the three first parts rests on two examples: A first generation and a half system for process control in nuclear powers plants, than the system EXTRA for alarm processing in nuclear plants, wherein fonctional knowledge is explicitely represented. We show how deep knowledge can be implemented, and the advantages that can be expected from this methodology. Qualitative Physics is discussed in the next part. Future research developments as well as potential payoffs are mentioned [fr
Zhou, Yun; Wijewickrema, Sudanthi; Ioannou, Ioanna; Bailey, James; Kennedy, Gregor; Nestel, Debra; O'Leary, Stephen
We investigated the variation of drilled regions of expert and trainee surgeons performing virtual temporal bone surgery to identify their compliance with standard drilling procedures. To this end, we recruited seven expert and six trainee ENT surgeons, who were asked to perform the surgical preparations for cochlear implantation on a virtual temporal bone. The temporal bone was divided into six regions using a semi-automated approach. The drilled area in each region was compared between groups using a sign test. Similarity within groups was calculated as a ratio of voxels (3D points) drilled by at least 75% of surgeons and at least 25% of surgeons. We observed a significant difference between groups when performing critical tasks such as exposing the facial nerve, opening the facial recess, and finding the round window. In these regions, experts' practice is more similar to each other than that between trainees. Consistent with models of skills development, expertise and expert-performance, the outcome of the analysis shows that experts perform similarly in critical parts of the procedure, and do indeed practice what they profess.
Watson, Clarence; Weiss, Kenneth J; Pouncey, Claire
The confession of a criminal defendant serves as a prosecutor's most compelling piece of evidence during trial. Courts must preserve a defendant's constitutional right to a fair trial while upholding the judicial interests of presenting competent and reliable evidence to the jury. When a defendant seeks to challenge the validity of that confession through expert testimony, the prosecution often contests the admissibility of the expert's opinion. Depending on the content and methodology of the expert's opinion, testimony addressing the phenomenon of false confessions may or may not be admissible. This article outlines the scientific and epistemological bases of expert testimony on false confession, notes the obstacles facing its admissibility, and provides guidance to the expert in formulating opinions that will reach the judge or jury. We review the 2006 New Jersey Superior Court decision in State of New Jersey v. George King to illustrate what is involved in the admissibility of false-confession testimony and use the case as a starting point in developing a best-practice approach to working in this area.
Fattahi, Fariba; Geshani, Ahmad; Jafari, Zahra; Jalaie, Shohreh; Salman Mahini, Mona
Chess is a game that involves many aspects of high level cognition such as memory, attention, focus and problem solving. Long term practice of chess can improve cognition performances and behavioral skills. Auditory memory, as a kind of memory, can be influenced by strengthening processes following long term chess playing like other behavioral skills because of common processing pathways in the brain. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the auditory memory function of expert chess players using the Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test. The Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test was performed for 30 expert chess players aged 20-35 years and 30 non chess players who were matched by different conditions; the participants in both groups were randomly selected. The performance of the two groups was compared by independent samples t-test using SPSS version 21. The mean score of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test between the two groups, expert chess players and non-chess players, revealed a significant difference (p≤ 0.001). The difference between the ears scores for expert chess players (p= 0.023) and non-chess players (p= 0.013) was significant. Gender had no effect on the test results. Auditory memory function in expert chess players was significantly better compared to non-chess players. It seems that increased auditory memory function is related to strengthening cognitive performances due to playing chess for a long time.
Ehdwall, Hans; Rising, Agneta
Sweden was one of the first countries outside the Soviet Union to be affected in 1986 by fall-out from the Chernobyl accident, which created an acute demand for correct information about reactor safety and effects of ionising radiation. A precursor to the Swedish Nuclear Training and Safety Centre, KSU, assumed in 1986 an important role in informing the general public, by using established press channels, by issuing newsletters, booklets and videotapes, and by sending mobile measuring units to the contaminated regions in Sweden. What started as an acute effort, has since then continued as a permanent activity, as the Chernobyl accident re-opened the nuclear issue as a subject of political controversy in Sweden. As on previous occasions in the debate about nuclear power, the arguments in the public and political debate were largely of scientific or technical nature, and very often grossly erroneous. Such technical false conceptions have often found their way to leading decisions-makers in politics and mass media. Corrections and refutations of this kind often require considerable expert knowledge, a scientific aitude but also a pedagogic interest. Often time-consuming research into particular issues is needed. The traditional information departments at the utilities are not very well equipped to handle such situations. The Analysis Group on nuclear power, attached to KSU, has therefore, on behalf of the utilities, been given the responsibility to generate factual information on nuclear power issues that might arise in the media or in the political and public debate. The communication mandate of the Analysis Group covers nuclear safety, the effects of ionising radiation, and comparative risk assessments. It does not include economy, energy requirements, nuclear waste or utility policy issues. Within its mandate the Analysis Group has a freedom to operate with independence and on its own merits
Gilstad, Heidi; Faxvaag, Arild; Hyppönen, Hannele
Development of multinational variables for monitoring eHealth policy implementations is a complex task and requires multidisciplinary, knowledgebased international collaboration. Experts in an interdisciplinary workshop identified useful data and pitfalls for comparative variable development...
Bley, D.C.; Read, J.W.; Kaplan, S.; Liming, J.K.; Brosee, N.M.; Hanley, D.W.
The idea of developing artificial intelligence (AI) systems to capture the knowledge of human experts is receiving much attention these days. The idea is even more attractive when important expertise resides within a single individual, especially one who is nearing retirement and who has not otherwise recorded or passed along his important knowledge and thought processes. The diesel generators at Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station have performed exceptionally well, primarily due to the care and attention of one man. Therefore, the authors are constructing an expert system for the diagnosis of diesel generator problems at Pilgrim. This paper includes a description of the expert system design and operation, examples from the knowledge base, and sample diagnoses, so the reader can observe the process in action
Ackerman, Robert A; Hands, Aaron J; Donnellan, M Brent; Hopwood, Christopher J; Witt, Edward A
There is debate over the definition of narcissism across social/personality and clinical psychology. The current article aims to quantify the level of disagreement by measuring experts' opinions concerning the attributes most central to narcissism. Accordingly, we developed a comprehensive list of attributes associated with narcissism and had 49 self-identified experts (among them 17 women, 23 psychologists from clinical psychology and 22 from social/personality psychology) rate these characteristics and provide their opinions on several issues related to the conceptualization of narcissism. Experts generally believe that the grandiose features of narcissism are more central than the vulnerable features. However, differences between clinical and social/personality psychologists were evident, especially regarding the relevance of self-esteem. Given the results, we suggest that researchers specify the kind of narcissism being assessed in a given study and consider using assessments of the full range of narcissistic features in future research to provide a more comprehensive perspective on the construct.
Erdmann, R.C.; Sun, B.K.H.
An expert system was developed with the intent to provide real-time information about an accident to an operator who is in the process of diagnosing and bringing that accident under control. Explicit use was made of probabilistic risk analysis techniques and plant accident response information in constructing this system. The expert system developed contains 70 logic rules and provides contextual messages during simulated accident sequences and logic sequence information on the entire sequence in graphical form for accident diagnosis. The present analysis focuses on integrated control system-related transients with Babcock and Wilcox-type reactors. While the system developed here is limited in extent and was built for a composite reactor, it demonstrates that an expert system may enhance the operator's capability in the control room
The advisory expert system MAESTRO (Modular Advisory Expert System for Test Rig Operator) has been designed to guide the operator of large experimental installation during start-up, steady state and shut down. The installation is located in the research reactor MARIA in the Institute of Atomic Energy in Swierk, Poland. The system acquires and analyses on line signals from installation and performs two tasks in real time: leading the operator and monitoring of the installation (including signal validation). Systems tasks, architecture and knowledge representation concepts are described. The system is based on expert systems techniques what makes in phases of continuous change of process parameters and it has been achieved by special knowledge representation allowing its dynamical modification. (author). 147 refs, 42 figs, 5 tab
Mars, Sarah G; Ling, Pamela M
Over the last 50 years, tobacco has been excluded from and then included in the category of addictive substances. We investigated influences on these opposing definitions and their application in expert witness testimony in litigation in the 1990s and 2000s. A scientist with ties to the tobacco industry influenced the selection of a definition of addiction that led to the classification of tobacco as a "habituation" in the 1964 Surgeon General's Advisory Committee report. Tobacco was later defined as addictive in the 1988 surgeon general's report. Expert witnesses for tobacco companies used the 1964 report's definition until Philip Morris Tobacco Company publicly changed its position in 1997 to agree that nicotine was addictive. Expert witnesses for plaintiffs suing the tobacco industry used the 1988 report's definition, arguing that new definitions were superior because of scientific advance. Both sides viewed addiction as an objective entity that could be defined more or less accurately.
Gieci, A.; Macko, J.; Mosny, J.; Gese, A.
The operator's mental activity is the most important part of his work. A processing of a large amount of the information by the operator is possible only if he/she possesses appropriate cognitive skills. To facilitate the novice's acquisition of the experienced operator's cognitive skills of the decision-making process a special type of the expert system was developed. The cognitive engineering's models and problem-solving methodology constitutes the basis of this expert system. The article gives an account of the prototype of the mentioned expert system developed to aid the whole mental activity of the nuclear power plant operator during his decision-making process. (author). 6 refs, 6 figs
Raboanary, R.; Raoelina Andriambololona; Soffer, J.; Raboanary, J.
Health problem is still a crucial one in some countries. It is so important that it becomes a major handicap in economic and social development. In order to solve this problem, we have conceived an expert system that we called MITSABO, which means TO HEAL, to help the physicians to diagnose tropical diseases. It is clear that by extending the data base and the knowledge base, we can extend the application of the software to more general areas. In our expert system, we used the concept of 'self organization' of neural network based on the determination of the eigenvalues and the eigenvectors associated to the correlation matrix XX t . The projection of the data on the two first eigenvectors gives a classification of the diseases which is used to get a first approach in the diagnosis of the patient. This diagnosis is improved by using an expert system which is built from the knowledge base.
Lykke, Marianne; Weidel, Eva
The survey aimed at investigating how companies deal with the challenge of sharing of employees’ expert knowledge. We wanted to find out which tools are being used to register, communicate and search employees as a knowledge resource. Specifically, we wanted to know how service organizations use...... expert finder systems to share knowledge about employees’ knowledge, interest, competences and activities. The purpose of the survey was to provide insight into goals, content and functionality of expert finder systems, including updating strategies and connection to social media knowledge sharing tools......, for example LinkedIn, Twitter, Facebook, Lotus Quickr, RSS feed. We ran our survey with the online-service SurveyXact. The survey was open February and March 2011. The questionnaire was distributed by e-mail and sent to 2.853 service companies in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany, Holland, Belgium...
Beman, M.; Springer, J.; Smith, P.; Porse, E.
In October 2011, ARBI organized and conducted an Experts' Meeting on the topic of performance guarantees and financing vehicles for Energy Efficiency Upgrades. The meeting brought together technical, policy, and financial experts, including researchers, experienced installation contractors, and innovative energy business leaders, in order to discuss the opportunities and challenges for the energy efficiency upgrade industry to increase market uptake of Home Energy Upgrades (HEUs) through innovative offerings, such as performance guarantees. The meeting had several primary goals. First, it sought to understand how other industries have developed successful models for financing renewable energy installations while providing performance guarantees. This has been most recently demonstrated by the solar leasing industry. Second, the meeting explored the applicability of such business models to the energy efficiency upgrade industry. Third, the meeting sought to identify technical impediments to performance guarantees for energy efficiency retrofits. Fourth, the meeting sought to provide a common framework for these goals within the context of current financing mechanisms for energy efficiency upgrades.
Laruelle, Ph.; Snegaroff, Th.; Moreau, S.; Tellenne, C.; Brunel, S.
Fourth chapter of the book on the geo-policy of the sustainable development, this chapter deal with the different and international policies concerned by the problem. The authors analyze the american energy attitude and policy, the economical equilibrium facing the environmental equilibrium for the european policy, the sanctified and sacrificed nature and the japanese attitude, India and China, the great fear of the 21 century and the sustainable development in Africa. (A.L.B.)
Objective: A comparative study of the role of expert and non-expert librarians to attract users, public libraries and public libraries of Tehran Municipality Art and Cultural Organization of Tehran, is in 1395. Research Methodology: This study is functional and causal-comparative. A questionnaire was used for data collection.
de Reuver, Philip R.; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G. W.; Gevers, Sjef K. M.; Gouma, Dirk J.
Objective: To determine the inter-rater agreement of expert witness testimonies in bile duct injury malpractice litigation. Background Data: Malpractice litigation is an increasing concern in modem surgical practice. As most of the lawyers are not educated in medicine, expert witnesses are asked to
Reuver, P.R. de; Dijkgraaf, M.G.; Gevers, S.K.; Gouma, D.J.; Bleichrodt, R.P.; Cuesta, M.A.; Erp, W.F. van; Gerritsen, J.; Hesselink, E.J.; Laarhoven, C.J.H.M. van; Lange, J. de; Obertop, H.; Stassen, L.P.; Terpstra, O.T.; Tilanus, H.W.; Vroonhoven, T.J.; Wit, L. de
OBJECTIVE: To determine the inter-rater agreement of expert witness testimonies in bile duct injury malpractice litigation. BACKGROUND DATA: Malpractice litigation is an increasing concern in modern surgical practice. As most of the lawyers are not educated in medicine, expert witnesses are asked to
Full Text Available Pierre-Gerlier Forest and his colleagues make a strong argument for the need to expand policy capacity among healthcare actors. In this commentary, I develop an additional argument in support of Forest et al view. Forest et al rightly point to the need to have embedded policy experts to successfully translate healthcare reform policy into healthcare change. Translation of externally generated innovation policy into local solutions is only one source of healthcare system change. We also need to build learning healthcare systems that can discover new health solutions at the frontline of care. Enhanced policy capacity staffing in those organizations will be key to building continuously learning health systems.
The author discussed the role and behaviour of experts in the context of gaining stakeholder confidence. The author underscored the many reasons to make explicit experts' values. Complex policy issues often involve many challenges, factual issues with uncertainties, values, emotions and vested interests. All of these factors should be exposed to policy makers and the public before decisions are made. Experts may set the agendas too narrowly, there may be mistrust in expertise and authorities, and there may be low awareness in the political system. Excessively narrow framing of the issues can result in frustration and inability to solve important societal problems. It was noted further, that in a democratic society decisions are based not on expert values, but on citizen values. Democracy implies accountability and requires awareness and transparency. Modern society is demanding higher levels of transparency and public participation dialogue and incorporation of public values. The author reviewed some of the models which have been advanced for awareness building with transparency and participation within frameworks of representative democracy. The RISKOM model was discussed, as was the VALDOC model, both of which invoke the practice of 'stretching' - inviting questions to be raised from new angles through challenges from society. Another key element of the RISKOM model is 'intelligence' - understanding future developments and outside forces, as well as studying and planning for the future. Crucial aspects of the VALDOC methodology include the authenticity of the approach itself, its identity in awareness and transparency, fairness in process setting and ensure neutral venues for hearings and transparency arenas. The presentation highlighted some applications of these models in a variety of industries in Sweden. The presentation reviewed a number of arenas in which experts' value systems may be exposed. Within the expert arena, it was
Ali, Moonis; Crawford, Roger
This paper focuses on the application of expert systems technology to the automatic detection, verification and correction of anomalous rocket engine operations through interfacing with an intelligent adaptive control system. The design of a reliable and intelligent propulsion control and monitoring system is outlined which includes the architecture of an Integrated Expert System (IES) serving as the core component. The IES functions include automatic knowledge acquisition, integrated knowledge base, and fault diagnosis and prediction methodology. The results of fault analysis and diagnostic techniques are presented for an example fault in the SSME main combustion chamber injectors.
Sebo, D.E.; Bray, M.A.; King, M.A.
The Reactor Safety Assessment System (RSAS) is an expert system under development for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). RSAS is intended for use at the NRC's Operations Center in the event of a serious incident at a licensed nuclear power plant. RSAS is a situation assessment expert system which uses plant parametric data to generate conclusions for use by the NRC Reactor Safety Team. RSAS uses multiple rule bases and plant specific setpoint files in order to be applicable to all licensed power plants. RSAS currently covers several generic reactor types and power plants within those classes
Rogers, Mark N.
The broad objective of this expert system software based application was to demonstrate the enhancements and cost savings that can be achieved through expert system software utilization in a spacecraft ground control center. Spacelab provided a valuable proving ground for this advanced software technology; a technology that will be exploited and expanded for future ISS operations. Our specific focus was on demonstrating payload cadre command and control efficiency improvements through the use of "smart" software which monitors flight telemetry, provides enhanced schematic-based data visualization, and performs advanced engineering data analysis.
Cody, Edward J
This book is written in a simple, easy to understand format with screenshots, code samples, and step-by-step explanations that will guide you through the advanced techniques used by the experts. If you are an Oracle Hyperion Interactive reporting user or developer looking to become an expert in the product, then this book is for you. You will require a basic knowledge of Interactive Reporting, as this book starts with a brief overview and then dives into advanced techniques, functions, and best practices. Beginner users should consult The Business Analyst's Guide to Oracle Hyperion Interactive
Molokanov, Valentin; Romanov, Dmitry; Tsibulsky, Valentin
We present the results of our enterprise expert search system application to the task introduced at the Text Retrieval Conference (TREC) in 2007. The expert search system is based on analysis of content and communications topology in an enterprise information space. An optimal set of weighting coefficients for three query-candidate associating algorithms is selected for achieving the best search efficiency on the search collection. The obtained performance proved to be better than at most TREC participants. The hypothesis of additional efficiency improvement by means of query classification is proposed.
Barreto, J M; de Azevedo, F M
In this paper neural networks are used as associative memories to build an expert system for aiding medical diagnosis. As in expert systems using symbolic manipulation, the knowledge is introduced by a knowledge engineer using a collection of known cases. The system has an object-oriented approach to knowledge organization and the resulting network topology. Fuzzy sets are used to interpret connection values and/or excitation state of the units. The main result is that the proposed neural network allows not only finding a solution in some cases, but also suggests obtaining more clinical data if the data available is insufficient to reach a conclusion. This approach is illustrated by examples.
Recent developments in expert system technology have led to the question whether such systems could be used for the enhancement of nuclear safety, particularly as advisory system during abnormal plant conditions. This document was produced during the Technical Committee Meeting (TCM) to Demonstrate and Review Expert System Prototypes, which was organized jointly by the International Atomic Energy Agency and British Nuclear Fuels Ltd (BNFL) and held at the BNFL site in Springfields, United Kingdom, from 30 September to 4 October 1991. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 14 papers in this document. Refs, figs and tabs
A network of distributed expert systems is the heart of a prototype supervisory control architecture developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for an advanced multimodular reactor. Eight expert systems encode knowledge on signal acquisition, diagnostics, safeguards, and control strategies in a hybrid rule-based, multiprocessing and object-oriented distributed computing environment. An interactive simulation of a power block consisting of three reactors and one turbine provides a realistic, testbed for performance analysis of the integrated control system in real-time. Implementation details and representative reactor transients are discussed
Full Text Available In this work, an expert system used in computer aided design has been developed. In the developed program, the features which are used in the models prepared by a feature based design program are evaluated by the expert system module and are used in part modeling after determining of their compatibilty according to the rules. This program, particulary for those who do not know or know very little manufacturing stages, accomplishes the duty of informing and directing them. The program developed warns the user for design mistakes made during modeling.
Belikov, E S
Medical expert qualification of iatrogenic disease is developed on the basis of insurance assessment of events (accident, realized risk, error) and classification of their causes according to the principle of the triad patient-medical professional-environment taking into account medical technology (diagnosis, treatment, rehabilitation, prophylaxis). Medical error is considered as an integral term and include inadequate (erroneous) professional thinking and/or action. Therefore, it is suggested to qualify a medical error either as a fallacy, or negligence, or omission. Medical-technological standards, apart from legitimacy, are necessary for realization of an expert activity.
Full Text Available Because of the fact that specialty agricultural assistance is not always available when the farmers need it, we identified expert systems as a strong instrument with an extended potential in agriculture. This started to grow in scale recently, including all socially-economic activity fields, having the role of collecting data regarding different aspects from human experts with the purpose of assisting the user in the necessary steps for solving problems, at the performance level of the expert, making his acquired knowledge and experience available. We opted for a general presentation of the expert systems as well as their necessity, because, the solution to develop the agricultural system can come from artificial intelligence by implementing the expert systems in the field of agricultural insurance, promoting existing insurance products, farmers finding options in depending on their necessities and possibilities. The objective of this article consists of collecting data about different aspects about specific areas of interest of agricultural insurance, preparing the database, a conceptual presentation of a pilot version which will become constantly richer depending on the answers received from agricultural producers, with the clearest exposure of knowledgebase possible. We can justify picking this theme with the fact that even while agricultural insurance plays a very important role in agricultural development, the registered result got from them are modest, reason why solutions need to be found in the scope of developing the agricultural sector. The importance of this consists in the proposal of an immediate viable solution to correspond with the current necessities of agricultural producers and in the proposal of an innovative solution, namely the implementation of expert system in agricultural insurance as a way of promoting insurance products. Our research, even though it treats the subject at an conceptual level, it wants to undertake an
The focus of the 1980s was economic adjustment; in the 1990s, it's social policy reform. Governments are realizing that without effective social policies, the equality and growth of a society are compromised. In Social Policy in a Global Society, international experts examine common social policy issues of Canada and Latin ...
Rubin, Stuart H; Murthy, S N Jayaram; Smith, Michael H; Trajković, Ljiljana
In this paper and attached video, we present a third-generation expert system named Knowledge Amplification by Structured Expert Randomization (KASER) for which a patent has been filed by the U.S. Navy's SPAWAR Systems Center, San Diego, CA (SSC SD). KASER is a creative expert system. It is capable of deductive, inductive, and mixed derivations. Its qualitative creativity is realized by using a tree-search mechanism. The system achieves creative reasoning by using a declarative representation of knowledge consisting of object trees and inheritance. KASER computes with words and phrases. It possesses a capability for metaphor-based explanations. This capability is useful in explaining its creative suggestions and serves to augment the capabilities provided by the explanation subsystems of conventional expert systems. KASER also exhibits an accelerated capability to learn. However, this capability depends on the particulars of the selected application domain. For example, application domains such as the game of chess exhibit a high degree of geometric symmetry. Conversely, application domains such as the game of craps played with two dice exhibit no predictable pattern, unless the dice are loaded. More generally, we say that domains whose informative content can be compressed to a significant degree without loss (or with relatively little loss) are symmetric. Incompressible domains are said to be asymmetric or random. The measure of symmetry plus the measure of randomness must always sum to unity.
Jonassen, David H.; Wang, Sherwood
Cognitive simulations are runnable computer programs for modeling human cognitive activities. A case study is reported where expert systems were used as a formalism for modeling metacognitive processes in a seminar. Building cognitive simulations engages intensive introspection, ownership and meaning making in learners who build them. (Author/AEF)
Six mistakes by the operators led to the accident at the Cherobyl nuclear reactor. These have been studied. It is suggested that an expert systems approach could prevent similar accidents. The expert system is a new approach to software programming where programs are required to perform intelligent analyses of complex situations. It separates the knowledge of a problem from the procedural code that performs the decision. An expert system will evaluate data and indicate a priority on alarms in real time. Now software systems can detect the cause of a problem in a process plant and present their findings to the operators in the control room. This should enable operators to make the correct decisions as they will know which underlying process faults are causing the alarms to operate. The Chernobyl post-mortem meeting made 13 proposals for improving safety. Two in particular are noted as relevant to expert advice systems; international collaboration on man-reactor relationships and a conference to explore the balance of automation and human action to minimise operating errors. (U.K.)
Van Hecke, T.
Students wanting to succeed in higher education are required to adopt an adequate learning approach. By analyzing individual learning characteristics, teachers can give personal advice to help students identify their learning success factors. An expert system based on fuzzy logic can provide economically viable solutions to help students identify…
Flandrois, J; Carret, G
Artificial intelligence is a part of computer science that deals with programs mimicking intelligence of man. Artificial intelligence is now used to check the quality of the determination of antibiotics susceptibility of bacteria. This application is useful because antibiotic susceptibility is subject to biological and technical variation that have to be detected. Three types of reasoning are used either by the biologist or by expert systems: low level quality checking dealing with individual results, microbiological interpretation of the whole set of results and medical interpretation of the results. The use of artificial intelligence in these fields is sustained by the structured nature of the knowledge. Two type of expert systems are already of routine use, either based on production rules (ATB plus EXPERT, bioMerieux, La Balme-les-Grottes, France and SIR, 12A, Montpellier, France), or on object-oriented representation of the knowledge (EXPRIM from our laboratory). The main problem is, as usually in artificial intelligence applications, to transfer human expertise into an adapted knowledge base. The advantage of experts systems over man are their reproducibility of answer and their availability.
VanDeventer, Stephanie S.; White, James A.
Investigates the display of expert behavior by seven outstanding video game-playing children ages 10 and 11. Analyzes observation and debriefing transcripts for evidence of self-monitoring, pattern recognition, principled decision making, qualitative thinking, and superior memory, and discusses implications for educators regarding the development…
Miller, Helen B.
NCR (National Cash Register) Corporation is pursuing opportunities to make their point of sale (POS) terminals easy to use and easy to learn. To approach the goal of making the technology invisible to the user, NCR has developed an adaptive expert prototype system for a department store POS operation. The structure for the adaptive system, the…
Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul
The purpose of the current study was to investigate the moderating or mediating role played by risk perception in decision-making, gambling behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Eleven gambling expert clinicians and researchers completed a semi-structured interview derived from mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Expert interview data was used to construct a comprehensive expert mental model 'map' detailing risk-perception related factors contributing to harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and emergent themes. Findings indicated that experts considered idiosyncratic beliefs among gamblers result in overall underestimates of risk and loss, insufficient prioritization of needs, and planning and implementation of risk management strategies. Additional contextual factors influencing use of risk information (reinforcement and learning; mental states, environmental cues, ambivalence; and socio-cultural and biological variables) acted to shape risk perceptions and increase vulnerabilities to harm or disordered gambling. It was concluded that understanding the nature, extent and processes by which risk perception predisposes an individual to maintain gambling despite adverse consequences can guide the content of preventative educational responsible gambling campaigns.
ence on Artificial Inteligence , Tbilisi, USSR, 1975. Fain, J., D. Gorlin, F. Hayes-Roth, S. Rosenschein, H. Sowizral, and D. Waterman, The ROSIE Language...gramming environment for artificial intelligence (AI) applications. It provides particular support for designing expert systems, systems that embody
Ahmadabadi, M N; Asadpour, M
By using other agents' experiences and knowledge, a learning agent may learn faster, make fewer mistakes, and create some rules for unseen situations. These benefits would be gained if the learning agent can extract proper rules from the other agents' knowledge for its own requirements. One possible way to do this is to have the learner assign some expertness values (intelligence level values) to the other agents and use their knowledge accordingly. Some criteria to measure the expertness of the reinforcement learning agents are introduced. Also, a new cooperative learning method, called weighted strategy sharing (WSS) is presented. In this method, each agent measures the expertness of its teammates and assigns a weight to their knowledge and learns from them accordingly. The presented methods are tested on two Hunter-Prey systems. We consider that the agents are all learning from each other and compare them with those who cooperate only with the more expert ones. Also, the effect of communication noise, as a source of uncertainty, on the cooperative learning method is studied. Moreover, the Q-table of one of the cooperative agents is changed randomly and its effects on the presented methods are examined.
Zoolalian, M.L.; Gibbs, A.; Kuhns, J.D.
Transuranic wastes are generated at the Savannah River Site (SRS) as a result of routine production of nuclear materials. These wastes contain Pu-238 and Pu-239 and are placed into lined 55-gallon waste drums. The drums are placed on monitored storage pads pending shipment to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. A passive-active neutron (PAN) assay system is used to determine the mass of the radioactive material within the waste drums. Assay results are used to classify the wastes as either low-level or transuranic (TRU). During assays, the PAN assay system communicates with an IBM-AT computer. A Fortran computer program, called NEUT, controls and performs all data analyses. Unassisted, the NEUT program cannot adequately interpret assay results. To eliminate this limitation, an expert system shell was used to write a new algorithm, called the Transuranic Expert System (TRUX), to drive the NEUT program and add decision making capabilities for analysis of the assay results. The TRUX knowledge base was formulated by consulting with human experts in the field of neutron assay, by direct experimentation on the PAN assay system, and by observing operations on a daily basis. TRUX, with its improved ability to interpret assay results, has eliminated the need for close supervision by a human expert, allowing skilled technicians to operate the PAN assay system. 4 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs
Considers three powerful techniques--heuristics, context trees, and search via backward chaining--that a knowledge engineer might employ to develop an expert system to automate performance engineering, i.e., the branch of instructional technology that focuses on the problems of business and industry. (MBR)
This article describes results of an agreement between the North Penn Water Authority in Lansdale, Pa., and the US Environmental Protection Agency, Drinking Water Research Division, Cincinnati, Ohio, to study use of expert systems technology in a water utility. The threeyear stud...
Orstein, Roberto M.
Argentina has provided expert services in the nuclear field to almost all the countries of Latin America and to many countries of other continents, in the framework of bilateral and multilateral cooperation agreements. A short history of these services is outlined and some statistical data are presented
Balog, K.; de Rijke, M.; Shanahan, J.G.; Amer-Yahia, S.; Zhang, Y.; Kołcz, A.; Chowdury, A.; Kelly, D.
The task addressed in this paper, finding experts in an enterprise setting, has gained in importance and interest over the past few years. Commonly, this task is approached as an association finding exercise between people and topics. Existing techniques use either documents (as a whole) or
Groothuis, Marga M.; Svensson, Jorgen S.; Breuker, J.; Leenes, R.E.; Winkels, R.
This article discusses the use of expert systems as a means of achieving juridical quality within administrative organisations. Do these systems really improve the quality of decision making and provide the desired guarantees with respect to the correct treatment of clients?
Martini, C.; Boumans, M.
This book brings together the research of philosophers and social scientists. It examines those areas of scientific practice where reliance on the subjective judgment of experts and practitioners is the main source of useful knowledge to address, and, possibly, bring solutions to social problems. A
This paper model an expert system called LAPTEX for troubleshooting LaserJet printers' faults. Today, with the innumerable advances in information technologies, computerizing printer's fault troubleshooting and identifying faults is far becoming so vital. Also, printers' fault detection is a complicated process that requires a ...
Mason-Mason, Susan Dale; Tessmer, Martin A.
This exploratory study investigated whether the process of constructing an expert system model promotes the formation of expert-like mental models. Discusses expert systems as mindtools, expert systems as learning tools, the assessment of mental models, results of pretests and posttests, and future research. (Contains 56 references.) (Author/LRW)
Full Text Available Wood industry is a very important part of both the Greek Rural and industrial sector. The discovery of the differentiation in the level of growth and in the quality of financial management between the Greek wood companies can provide very important aid in the design of an effective rural development policy. The evaluation and ranking of Greek wood companies based on actual financial data is a very complicated task and it requires expertise knowledge and skills. On the other hand a computer expert system can perform validation and evaluation in an efficient way and can substitute human experts. An expert system was designed and developed towards this direction. It uses multicriteria analysis for each one of the wood companies based on actual financial data and it applies fundamental principles of fuzzy logic in order to calculate the expected intervals of flows for the following years. .
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ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Artificial intelligence techniques are rapidly emerging as important contributors to more effective management. One of the greatest growth areas probably lies in the use of Expert System methodology for supporting managerial decision processes.
Existing Decision Support Systems often attempt to apply analytical techniques in combination with traditional data access and retrieval functions. One of the problems usually encountered while developing such decision support systems is the need to transform an unstructured problem environment into a structured analytical model. Using an expert system approach to strategic decision making in such unstructured problem environments may provide significant advantages.
The financial Risk diagnostic EXpert System (REXS concentrates on Financial Risk Analysis. Based on a Forecasting Model the system will, with the support of several expert system knowledge bases, attempt to evaluate the financial risk of a business and provide guidelines for improvement.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Tegnieke gebaseer op Kunsmatige Intelligensie toon tans die belofte om belangrike bydraes te maak tot meerBestaande Besluitsteunstelsels poog dikwels om analitiese tegnieke en lradisionele datatoegang- en onttrekkingsfunksies te kombineer. Een van die probleme wat gewoonlik ondervind word gedurende die ontwikkeling van '0 besluitsteunstelsel bestaan uit die behoefte om 'n ongestruktueerde probleemomgewing te transformeer na 'n gestruktueerde analitiese model. 'n Ekspertstelselbenadering lot strategiese besluitneming in 'n ongeSlruktureerde probleemomgewing mag betekenisvolle voordele inhou.
Die "financial Risk diagnostic EXpert System (REXS" konsentreer op fmansiele risiko-analise. Uitgaande vanaf 'n Vooruitskattingsmode~ en deur gebruik te maak van verskeie ekspertstelselkennisbasisse, poog die stelsel om die fmansiele risiko van 'n onderneming te evalueer en riglyne vir moontlike verbetering
The Institute for Nuclear Safety and Protection (IPSN) has begun work on an expert system to aid in the diagnosis of fire hazards in nuclear installations. This system is called Vulcain N and is designed as a support tool for the analyses carried out by the IPSN. Vulcain N, is based on the Vulcain expert system already developed by Bertin for its own needs and incorporates the specific rules and know-how of the IPSN experts. The development of Vulcain N began in October 1986 with the drawing up of the technical specifications, and should be completed by the end of 1988. Vulcain N brings together knowledge from a number of different domains: the locations of the combustible materials, the thermal characteristics of the combustible materials and of the walls of the room, the ventilation conditions and, finally, knowledge of fire experts concerning the development of fire. The latter covers four levels of expert knowledge: standards and their associated calculations, the simplified physics of the fire enabling more precise values to be obtained for the figures given by the standards, the rules and knowledge which enables a certain number of deductions to be made concerning the development of the fire, and a numerical simulation code which can be used to monitor the variation of certain characteristic parameters with time. For a given fire out-break scenario, Vulcain N performs diagnosis of different aspects: development of fire, effect of ventilation, emergency action possibilities, propagation hazards, etc. Owing to its flexibility, it can be used in the analysis of fire hazards to simulate a number of possible scenarios and to very rapidly deduce the essential, predominant factors. It will also be used to assist in drafting emergency procedures for application in facilities with nuclear hazards
Alberts, Daniel J.
The Energy Office of Michigan asked Lawrence Technological University (LTU) to conduct Delphi Inquires into wind turbine noise and wildlife issues. These inquiries collected and analyzed stakeholders' perceptions of how to address turbine noise and potential wildlife impacts in the Michigan Siting Guidelines for Wind Energy Systems. This paper uses Beierle and Cayford's conceptual framework for evaluating the success of public participation to compare the two inquiries. Beierle and Cayford's framework identifies five social goals for public participation in policy development: incorporating public values into decisions, improving the substantive quality of decisions, resolving conflict among competing interests, building trust in institutions, and educating and informing the public. The framework also identifies several process elements that contribute to the success of meeting those goals. This paper examines how the participants' prior experience with each issue influenced two important elements of the participation process: the participants' ability to engage in meaningful discourse and their ability to exert control over the process. This paper examines how some participants' inexperience prevented them from effectively participating in the process of developing wind energy policy; demonstrating that it can be more productive to seek input primarily from technical experts than to seek consensus from all stakeholders
Directorate General has set up an independent expert group. Its task was to take stock of the impacts, challenges and limitations of EU-funded public health research under the current and previous research framework programmes, and to identify priorities for future research. The experts, who worked in two...... agendas and national policy agendas? How to improve the uptake of evidence generated from public health research in the development of public health policy? This report summarises the recommendations from Subgroup 2.......The next EU research and innovation framework programme 'Horizon 2020' will address a number of important societal challenges including health, demographic changes and well-being. To prepare the work in these areas, the Health Directorate of the European Commission's Research & Innovation...
Faber, J.; Nelissen, D.; Lowe, S.; Mason, A.
In the period end 2005 till September 2006 MVA London in cooperation with SEO Amsterdam was commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Transport to perform an analysis of the economic and competition effects of the different proposals from the European Commission to include aviation in the European Emission Trading System (ETS). Roughly at the same time CE Delft was commissioned to study the overall impacts of this inclusion for the European Commission. Both studies considered the possibility that inclusion of aviation in the ETS could lead to the distortion of competition between airlines through cross-subsidisation. The studies concluded differently on additional possibilities for cross-subsidisation. As a result, both parties have different views on the possible distortion of the competitive market on routes where EU-based carriers compete directly with carriers based outside the EU. CE Delft concluded that 'none of the policy options considered in this study will significantly damage the competitive position of EU airlines relative to non-EU airlines'. In contrast, MVA and SEO (2006) concluded that 'effective cross-subsidisation by non-EU carriers in the Departing EU scope of the ETS appears to be more probable than cross-subsidisation by EU network carriers in the Intra-EU scope of the ETS'. In July 2007, the Dutch Ministry of Transport, DGTL commissioned CE Delft, MVA and SEO to study the causes for their different opinions and to see whether a further investigation could shed more light on the likelihood of additional cross-subsidisation. Formally, the aim of the work currently carried out is: (1) To determine whether it is possible to assess the impacts on the competitive market between EU based carriers and non-EU based carriers based on sound economic reasoning and analysis of empirical data; and, if so, (2) to determine whether the inclusion of aviation in ETS as proposed by the European Commission will offer non-EU airlines the opportunity to increase their
Vendrame, Alan; Silva, Rebeca; Xuan, Ziming; Sparks, Robert; Noel, Jonathan; Pinsky, Ilana
We assessed the impact of the 2010 revisions to Brazil's self-regulatory alcohol marketing code using expert and adolescent raters. Five popular TV beer ads were selected. Ads were rated based on the 2010 Brazilian self-regulatory marketing code. The expert group (N = 31) represented health-related professions; the adolescent group (N = 110) were public high school students. At least 1 ad violated 11 of 17 guidelines included in the study. Ratings by experts and adolescents were similar. Both found violations in all sections of the self-regulatory code, but significant group differences were seen in applying the section that prohibits the promotion of excessive alcohol consumption, with experts identifying more violations than adolescents. Beer ads in the sample systematically violated the self-regulatory standards for alcohol advertising in Brazil according to both experts and youth. Public policies for more effective restrictions and prohibitions in alcohol ads should be considered. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.
Chung, Timothy S.; Patino-Echeverri, Dalia; Johnson, Timothy L.
A set of 13 US based experts in post-combustion and oxy-fuel combustion CO 2 capture systems responded to an extensive questionnaire asking their views on the present status and future expected performance and costs for amine-based, chilled ammonia, and oxy-combustion retrofits of coal-fired power plants. This paper presents the experts' responses for technology maturity, ideal plant characteristics for early adopters, and the extent to which R and D and deployment incentives will impact costs. It also presents the best estimates and 95% confidence limits of the energy penalties associated with amine-based systems. The results show a general consensus that amine-based systems are closer to commercial application, but potential for improving performance and lowering costs is limited; chilled ammonia and oxy-combustion offer greater potential for cost reductions, but not without greater uncertainty regarding scale and technical feasibility. - Highlights: → Study presents experts' views on CCS retrofit costs and performance. → Experts commented on amine-based systems, chilled ammonia, and oxy-fuel combustion. → Estimates of future energy penalty show uncertainty for the three technologies. → These estimates under an aggressive RD and D policy scenario narrow significantly. → The experts' judgments support the need for enhanced RD and D for post-combustion CCS.
Parker, Lisa; Rychetnik, Lucie; Carter, Stacy
Objective To explore what Australian experts value in breast screening, how these values are conceptualised and prioritised, and how they inform experts’ reasoning and judgement about the Australian breast-screening programme. Design Qualitative study based on interviews with experts. Participants 33 experts, including clinicians, programme managers, policymakers, advocates and researchers selected for their recognisable influence in the Australian breast-screening setting. Setting Australian breast-screening policy, practice and research settings. Results Experts expressed 2 types of values: ethical values (about what was good, important or right) and epistemological values (about how evidence should be created and used). Ethical values included delivering benefit, avoiding harm, promoting autonomy, fairness, cost effectiveness, accountability, professionalism and transparency. Epistemological values informed experts’ arguments about prioritising and evaluating evidence methodology, source population and professional interests. Some values were conceptualised differently by experts: for example, delivering benefit could mean reducing breast cancer mortality, reducing all-cause mortality, reducing mortality in younger women, reducing need for aggressive treatment, and/or reassuring women they were cancer free. When values came into conflict, experts prioritised them differently: for example, when experts perceived a conflict between delivering benefits and promoting autonomy, there were differences in which value was prioritised. We explain the complexity of the relationship between held values and experts’ overall views on breast cancer screening. Conclusions Experts’ positions in breast screening are influenced by evidence and a wide range of ethical and epistemological values. We conclude that discussions about values should be a regular part of breast-screening review in order to build understanding between those who hold different positions, and
In many data exploratory tasks, extraordinary and rarely occurring patterns called outliers are more interesting than the prevalent ones. For example, they could represent frauds in insurance, intrusions in network and system monitoring, or motion in video surveillance. Decades of research have...... in practice and we empirically evaluate them on synthetic and real world data sets. First, we tackle the problem that most algorithms leave the end user without any explanation of how or why the identified outliers deviate. Such knowledge is important for domain experts in order to be able to validate...... to a supervised classifier. The resulting method is robust to parameters and as such it can be easily applied to data by non-experts in data mining. We also consider the case where computational resources at test time are limited and introduce a feature selection technique that respects a computational budget...
Norcross, Scott; Grieser, William H.
This paper describes a product called the Intelligent Mission Toolkit (IMT), which was created to meet the changing demands of the spacecraft command and control market. IMT is a command and control system built upon an expert system. Its primary functions are to send commands to the spacecraft and process telemetry data received from the spacecraft. It also controls the ground equipment used to support the system, such as encryption gear, and telemetry front-end equipment. Add-on modules allow IMT to control antennas and antenna interface equipment. The design philosophy for IMT is to utilize available commercial products wherever possible. IMT utilizes Gensym's G2 Real-time Expert System as the core of the system. G2 is responsible for overall system control, spacecraft commanding control, and spacecraft telemetry analysis and display. Other commercial products incorporated into IMT include the SYBASE relational database management system and Loral Test and Integration Systems' System 500 for telemetry front-end processing.
Christie, R.D.; Talukdar, S.N.
This paper argues that automatic security assessment schemes cannot generate information of high quality until their architectures, which are now wholly algorithmic, are changed to hybrids combining algorithms with expert systems. In particular, numerical algorithms should continue to be used for simulating the effects of contingencies, but expert systems should be developed for selecting the contingencies and interpreting the simulation results. These changes will make automatic schemes more closely resemble the manual schemes that are used off line too generate assessment information of high quality. The problems of integrating hybrid software into existing Energy Management Systems (EMSs) are far from trivial. The paper goes on to discuss these problems and suggest a solution, namely the use of a network of workstations tied to existing EMS computers.
After the author presided over the photographer's group for 15 years or more, the author met with the Photo Master certificate examination. And the author took the certificate examination, and was authorized as a Photo Master Expert in 2005. In this report, the outline how photographic technology has been mastered in order to adapt the photographer's group to the great change of photography from film to digital and how the contents of the activity of a photographer's group have changed is described. And the progress which took the Photo Master certificate examination as a good opportunity to prove the achievement level of those activities is described. And as a photographic activity after Photo Master Expert authorization, the shooting method of mural painting in the royal tomb of Amenophis III is described.
The characteristic features of expert systems are explained in detail, and the systems' application in process control engineering. Four points of main interest are there, namely: Applications for diagnostic tasks, for safety analyses, planning, and training and expert training. For the modelling of the technical systems involved in all four task fields mentioned above, an object-centred approach has shown to be the suitable method, as process control techniques are determined by technical objects that in principle are specified by data sheets, schematic representations, flow charts, and plans. The graphical surface allows these data to be taken into account, so that the object can be displayed in the way best suited to the individual purposes. (orig./GL) [de
Silverman, Barry G.; Diakite, Coty
Successful project managers (PMs) have been shown to rely on 'intuition,' experience, and analogical reasoning heuristics. For new PMs to be trained and experienced PMs to avoid repeating others' mistakes, it is necessary to make the knowledge and heuristics of successful PMs more widely available. The preparers have evolved a model of PM thought processes over the last decade that is now ready to be implemented as a generic PM aid. This aid consists of a series of 'specialist' expert systems (CRITIC, LIBRARIAN, IDEA MAN, CRAFTSMAN, and WRITER) that communicate with each other via a 'blackboard' architecture. The various specialist expert systems are driven to support PM training and problem solving since any 'answers' they pass to the blackboard are subjected to conflict identification (AGENDA FORMULATOR) and GOAL SETTER inference engines.
Fifteen years after its first CERN edition, the Shielding Aspects of Accelerator, Targets and Irradiation Facility (SATIF) conference was held again here from 2-4 June. Now at its 10th edition, SATIF10 brought together experts from all over the world to discuss issues related to the shielding techniques. They set out the scene for an improved collaboration and discussed novel shielding solutions. This was the most attended meeting of the series with more than 65 participants from 34 institutions and 14 countries. “We welcomed experts from many different laboratories around the world. We come from different contexts but we face similar problems. In this year’s session, among other things, we discussed ways for improving the effectiveness of calculations versus real data, as well as experimental solutions to investigate the damage that radiation produces on various materials and the electronics”, says Marco Silari, Chair of the conference and member of the DGS/RP gro...
Qin, H; Xiao, J; Gao, X; Wang, H
In contrast to the rapid development of the horse husbandry in China, the ability of horse veterinarians to diagnose diseases has not been improved and only a few domain experts have considerable expertise. At present, many expert systems have been developed for diseases diagnosis, but few for horse diseases diagnosis have been studied in depth. This paper presents the design and development of a computer-aided expert system for diagnosing horse diseases. We suggest an approach for diagnosis of horse diseases based on the analysis of diagnostic characteristics and the experiential knowledge of domain experts. It is based on using evidence-weighted uncertainty reasoning theory, which is a combination of evidence theory and an uncertainty pass algorithm of confidence factors. It enables drawing of inferences with atypical clinical signs and the uncertainty of the user's subjective understanding. It reduces the influence of subjective factors on diagnostic accuracy. The system utilizes a user friendly interface for users and requests a confidence factor from users when feedback is given to the system. Horse-Expert combines the confidence factors with weight factors assigned to clinical signs by experts during the knowledge acquisition process to make diagnostic conclusions. The system can diagnose 91 common horse diseases, and provides suggestions for appropriate treatment options. In addition, users can check the medical record through statistical charts. The system has been tested in seven demonstration areas of Xinjiang province in northwestern China. By constantly maintaining and updating the knowledge base, the system has potential application in veterinary practice.
Abe, Isamu; Nakahara, Kazuo; Kitamura, Masaharu.
A prototype diagnostic expert system (ES) was developed for the Photon Factory 2.5-GeV electron/positron LINAC injector system. The ES has been on-lined with the conventional linac computer network for receiving real data. This project was undertaken in an attempt to reduce the linac operator's mental workload, diagnosis duties, and to explore Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies. The outlook for ES and its problems, and what has been achieved are outlined in this presentation. (author)
AUTHOR|(CDS)2160780; Timkó, Helga
This Thesis describes software tools developed for automated, precision setting-up of low-power level radio frequency (LLRF) loops, which will help expert users to have better control and faster setting-up of the radio-frequency (RF) system in the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) experiment. The aim was to completely redesign the software architecture, to add new features, to improve certain algorithms, and to increase the automation.
Fattahi, Fariba; Geshani, Ahmad; Jafari, Zahra; Jalaie, Shohreh; Salman Mahini, Mona
Background: Chess is a game that involves many aspects of high level cognition such as memory, attention, focus and problem solving. Long term practice of chess can improve cognition performances and behavioral skills. Auditory memory, as a kind of memory, can be influenced by strengthening processes following long term chess playing like other behavioral skills because of common processing pathways in the brain. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the auditory memory function of expert...
Sajjad ur Rehman; Abdus Sattar Chaudhry; Sakeena A. Al-Alawi
Knowledge management (KM) is maturing as a field of study with an interdisciplinary orientation, being taught in a variety of schools by the faculty from diverse affiliations. In this context, KM curriculum design becomes a major challenge for educators. This study was designed with the purpose of analyzing the perceptions of senior KM academics and KM experts about the relevance and value of KM constructs in graduate programs. KM curriculum content was proposed based on an earlier study of K...
informal I Stibiec live, impressionistic) and Formal (Mechani cal, Algorithmic) Piediction Procedures� The clinical-Statistical Coniro~�ersy,� Psicholog ...systems have demonstrated Ignoring questions about the tech nological feasibility of such a system. Fundamental epistemologi � cal flaws present...concerned with the epistemology of their domain, not just philosophically but practically. They want to know how experts in their discipline reach
Brand, Larry [Partnership for Advanced Residential Retrofit (PARR), Des Plaines, IL (United States)
This is an overview of "The Best Approach to Combustion Safety in a Direct Vent World," held June 28, 2012, in San Antonio, TX. The objective of this Expert Meeting was to identify gaps and barriers that need to be addressed by future research, and to develop data-driven technical recommendations for code updates so that a common approach for combustion safety can be adopted by all members of the building energy efficiency and code communities.
This is a meeting overview of 'The Best Approach to Combustion Safety in a Direct Vent World', held June 28, 2012, in San Antonio, Texas. The objective of this Expert Meeting was to identify gaps and barriers that need to be addressed by future research, and to develop data-driven technical recommendations for code updates so that a common approach for combustion safety can be adopted by all members of the building energy efficiency and code communities.
Stanley, G. M.
This paper gives an overview of industrial applications of real-time knowledge based expert systems (KBES's) in the process industries. After a brief overview of the features of a KBES useful in process applications, the general roles of KBES's are covered. A particular focus is diagnostic applications, one of the major applications areas. Many applications are seen as an expansion of supervisory control. The lessons learned from numerous online applications are summarized.
Cardozo, E.; Talukdar, S.N.
This paper describes a hybrid approach to synthesizing solutions for diagnosis and set covering problems from the area of power system operations. The approach combines expert systems written in a rule-based language (OPS5) with algorithmic programs written in C and Lisp. An environment called DPSK has been developed to allow these programs to be run in parallel in a network of computers. Speeds sufficient for real-time applications can thereby be obtained.
Strohal, R; Assenheimer, B; Augustin, M; Hämmerle, G; Läuchli, S; Pundt, B; Stern, G; Storck, M; Ulrich, C
The challenges of modern wound management, such as the treatment of chronic wounds and their phase-specific handling, are demanding and require optimally adapted therapeutic measures. The principles of moist wound care as well as an adequate debridement have priority here. To support these necessary measures, different options are available, e.g., a new product group operating across several wound phases. A new treatment principle in modern wound management based on an expert consensus is presented. On the basis of clinical experience reports and published evidence, the current and new principles of wound treatment were discussed in a panel of experts and formulated as a consensus statement. Enzyme alginogels represent a combination of agents that allow phase-specific wound care. They exhibit autolytic, absorbent, and antimicrobial properties and simultaneously cover three components of wound management based on the TIME framework. Thus, according to the experts, they differ from other wound healing products and can be classified in a distinct product group. Clinical studies, as well as clinical experiences, provide evidence for the efficacy of enzyme alginogels. According to the experts, the potential of enzyme alginogels used considering the principles of moist wound care, comprises the three-fold effect (continuous and significantly simplified debridement, maintaining a moist wound environment and antimicrobial effect without cytotoxicity), the ease of use, and the flexible application. In addition, the flexibility of the product class regarding frequency of application, duration of treatment and combinability with secondary dressings, are of economic benefit in the health care sector.
Chen, Xiaoling; Chang, Jeffrey T
Bioinformatic analyses are becoming formidably more complex due to the increasing number of steps required to process the data, as well as the proliferation of methods that can be used in each step. To alleviate this difficulty, pipelines are commonly employed. However, pipelines are typically implemented to automate a specific analysis, and thus are difficult to use for exploratory analyses requiring systematic changes to the software or parameters used. To automate the development of pipelines, we have investigated expert systems. We created the Bioinformatics ExperT SYstem (BETSY) that includes a knowledge base where the capabilities of bioinformatics software is explicitly and formally encoded. BETSY is a backwards-chaining rule-based expert system comprised of a data model that can capture the richness of biological data, and an inference engine that reasons on the knowledge base to produce workflows. Currently, the knowledge base is populated with rules to analyze microarray and next generation sequencing data. We evaluated BETSY and found that it could generate workflows that reproduce and go beyond previously published bioinformatics results. Finally, a meta-investigation of the workflows generated from the knowledge base produced a quantitative measure of the technical burden imposed by each step of bioinformatics analyses, revealing the large number of steps devoted to the pre-processing of data. In sum, an expert system approach can facilitate exploratory bioinformatic analysis by automating the development of workflows, a task that requires significant domain expertise. https://github.com/jefftc/changlab. firstname.lastname@example.org. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: email@example.com
The proliferation of automatic test equipment (ATE) is resulting in the generation of large amounts of component data. Some of this component data is not accurate due to the presence of noise. Analyzing this data requires the use of new techniques. This paper describes the process of developing an expert system to analyze ATE data and provides an example rule in the CLIPS language for analyzing trip thresholds for high gain/high speed comparators.
Viterbi, Andrew J.; Jestin, Richard W.; Pelton, Joseph N.; Evans, Barry G.; Golding, Joseph
The paper presents the opinions of industry experts (from vendor organizations, service providers, research institutions, and international carriers) on the planned activities and future trends with regard to very-small-aperture terminals (VSATs). Consideration is given to technology, business, and applications issues. Included in the discussion are the impact of mobile satellite technology on VSAT products and markets, international VSAT applications and ISDN, the influence of OBP satellites, and the use of microterminals in Europe.
Koney, Nii; Roudenko, Alexandra; Ro, Maryann; Bahl, Sumeet; Kagen, Alexander
The evolving health care landscape demands a multidisciplinary approach to care and increased emphasis on patient engagement. Radiologists may play an important role in this respect, by improving patient agency and understanding through direct patient interaction. The purpose of this study is to assess patient preferences and perceptions regarding direct communication with radiologists, focusing on a medically underserved demographic. Our institutional review board approved this HIPAA-compliant study. English- and/or Spanish-speaking adults undergoing imaging studies across two tertiary-care hospitals and a busy outpatient center were surveyed over a consecutive two-month period, to assess knowledge of the role of a radiologist, interest in, and perceived benefits of reviewing examination results with imaging experts. A total of 628 surveys were completed: 20% of total respondents accurately identified the role of radiologists; 28% identified radiologists as doctors. A total of 68% of respondents expressed an interest in receiving imaging results immediately, or whenever results became available, regardless of when referring physicians received results. An interest in reviewing imaging results with an expert was indicated by 81% of respondents; 88% anticipated that reviewing imaging results with an expert would be beneficial. Although 58% of respondents indicated that they might be willing to pay out of pocket for such a service, 50% selected $0 when asked to indicate an amount. Although most patients do not know the role of radiologists, they want immediate results, and perceive value in consulting directly with imaging experts. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
EURATOM Basic Safety Standards (BSS) Directives have long included requirements for the involvement of qualified experts, the definition of which has scarcely changed since at least 1976. The Directive requirement, in the definition of qualified expert,, for competent authorities to recognise the capacity to act as a qualified expert has been interpreted by Member States in widely differing ways, ranging from the minimalist or case by case to the highly detailed and prescriptive. In the United Kingdom (UK), the qualified expert for occupational radiation protection is the radiation protection adviser and the competent authority is the Health and Safety Executive (HSE). The Ionising Radiations Regulations 1985, which largely implemented the 1980 BSS Directive, required an employer to appoint one or more radiation protection advisers for the purpose of advising him as to the observance of these Regulations and other health and safety matters in connection with ionising radiation. The Regulations addressed the question of recognition by forbidding an employer to appoint a person as a radiation protection adviser unless: that person was suitably qualified and experienced; the employer had notified the Health and Safety Executive in writing of the intended appointment at least 28 days in advance, giving the name of the person and particulars of his qualifications and experience and the scope of the advice he would be required to give; and the employer had received from HSE an acknowledgement in writing of the notification. This system allowed HSE to follow up and query any apparently unsuitable potential appointments while applying a light overall administrative touch. The Approved Code of Practice supporting the Regulations included advice on the qualifications, experience and qualities that the employer should look for in a suitable radiation protection adviser
Chen, Xiaoling; Chang, Jeffrey T.
Abstract Motivation: Bioinformatic analyses are becoming formidably more complex due to the increasing number of steps required to process the data, as well as the proliferation of methods that can be used in each step. To alleviate this difficulty, pipelines are commonly employed. However, pipelines are typically implemented to automate a specific analysis, and thus are difficult to use for exploratory analyses requiring systematic changes to the software or parameters used. Results: To automate the development of pipelines, we have investigated expert systems. We created the Bioinformatics ExperT SYstem (BETSY) that includes a knowledge base where the capabilities of bioinformatics software is explicitly and formally encoded. BETSY is a backwards-chaining rule-based expert system comprised of a data model that can capture the richness of biological data, and an inference engine that reasons on the knowledge base to produce workflows. Currently, the knowledge base is populated with rules to analyze microarray and next generation sequencing data. We evaluated BETSY and found that it could generate workflows that reproduce and go beyond previously published bioinformatics results. Finally, a meta-investigation of the workflows generated from the knowledge base produced a quantitative measure of the technical burden imposed by each step of bioinformatics analyses, revealing the large number of steps devoted to the pre-processing of data. In sum, an expert system approach can facilitate exploratory bioinformatic analysis by automating the development of workflows, a task that requires significant domain expertise. Availability and Implementation: https://github.com/jefftc/changlab Contact: firstname.lastname@example.org PMID:28052928
Full Text Available There are some fundamental economic uncertainties. We cannot forecast economic events with a very high scientific precision. It is very clear that there does not exist a unique 'general' model, which can yield all answers to a wide range of macroeconomic issues. Therefore, we use several different kinds of models on segments of the macroeconomic problem. Different models can distinguish/solve economy desegregation, time series analysis and other subfactors involved in macroeconomic problem solving. A major issue becomes finding a meaningful method to link these econometric models. Macroeconomic models were linked through development of an Expert System for National Economy Model Simulations (ESNEMS. ESNEMS consists of five parts: (1 small-scale short-term national econometric model, (2 Methodology of Interactive Nonlinear Goal Programming (MINGP, (3 data-base of historical macro-economic aggregates, (4 software interface for interactive communications between a model and a decision maker, and (5 software for solving problems. ESNEMS was developed to model the optimum macro-economic policy of a developing country (SFRY-formerly Yugoslavia. Most econometric models are very complex. Optimizing of the economic policy is typically defined as a nonlinear goal programming problem. To solve/optimize these models, a new methodology, MINGP, was developed as a part of ESNEMS. MINGP is methodologically based on linear goal programming and feasible directions method. Using Euler's Homogeneous Function Theorem, MINGP linearizes nonlinear homogeneous functions. The highest priorities in minimizing the objective function are the growth of gross domestic product and the decrease of inflation. In the core of the optimization model, MINGP, there is a small-scale econometric model. This model was designed through analysis of the causal relations in the SFRY's social reproduction process of the past 20 years. The objective of the econometric model is to simulate
Bouat, M.; Godin, R.
CHOOZ-A Nuclear Power Plant, the first French-Belgian PWR unit (300 MWe) was definitively shut down at the end of October 1991, after 24 years in operation. Since summer 1991, the steering committee of the French (EDF) Lifetime Project has initiated a large inquiry to the different technical specialists of EDF and external organizations, trying to define a wide expert assessment program on this plant. The aim is to improve the knowledge of aging mechanisms such as those observed on the 52 PWR French nuclear power plants (900 and 1,300 MWe), and contribute to the validation of non-destructive in-service testing methods. This paper presents the retained CHOOZ-A expert assessment program and technical lines followed during its set up. First major project stages are described, then technical choices are explained, and at last the final program is presented with the specific content of each expert assessment. The definitive program is scheduled for a three year period starting at the moment of final shutdown license acquisition, with a provisional total budget of more than US $10 million
Wisse, Bram; Bedford, Tim; Quigley, John
Moment methods have been employed in decision analysis, partly to avoid the computational burden that decision models involving continuous probability distributions can suffer from. In the Bayes linear (BL) methodology prior judgements about uncertain quantities are specified using expectation (rather than probability) as the fundamental notion. BL provides a strong foundation for moment methods, rooted in work of De Finetti and Goldstein. The main objective of this paper is to discuss in what way expert assessments of moments can be combined, in a non-Bayesian way, to construct a prior assessment. We show that the linear pool can be justified in an analogous but technically different way to linear pools for probability assessments, and that this linear pool has a very convenient property: a linear pool of experts' assessments of moments is coherent if each of the experts has given coherent assessments. To determine the weights of the linear pool we give a method of performance based weighting analogous to Cooke's classical model and explore its properties. Finally, we compare its performance with the classical model on data gathered in applications of the classical model
Gobet, Fernand; Waters, Andrew J
A great deal of research has been devoted to developing process models of expert memory. However, K. J. Vicente and J. H. Wang (1998) proposed (a) that process theories do not provide an adequate account of expert recall in domains in which memory recall is a contrived task and (b) that a product theory, the constraint attunement hypothesis (CAH), has received a significant amount of empirical support. We compared 1 process theory (the template theory; TT; F. Gobet & H. A. Simon, 1996c) with the CAH in chess. Chess players (N=36) differing widely in skill levels were required to recall briefly presented chess positions that were randomized in various ways. Consistent with TT, but inconsistent with the CAH, there was a significant skill effect in a condition in which both the location and distribution of the pieces were randomized. These and other results suggest that process models such as TT can provide a viable account of expert memory in chess. ((c) 2003 APA, all rights reserved)
Hassan, Norlida; Arbaiy, Nureize; Shah, Noor Aziyan Ahmad; Afizah Afif@Afip, Zehan
Heart attack is one of the serious illnesses and reported as the main killer disease. Early prevention is significant to reduce the risk of having the disease. The prevention efforts can be strengthen through awareness and education about risk factor and healthy lifestyle. Therefore the knowledge dissemination is needed to play role in order to distribute and educate public in health care management and disease prevention. Since the knowledge dissemination in medical is important, there is a need to develop a knowledge based system that can emulate human intelligence to assist decision making process. Thereby, this study utilized hybrid artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to develop a Fuzzy Expert System for Diagnosing Heart Attack Disease (HAD). This system integrates fuzzy logic with expert system, which helps the medical practitioner and people to predict the risk and as well as diagnosing heart attack based on given symptom. The development of HAD is expected not only providing expert knowledge but potentially become one of learning resources to help citizens to develop awareness about heart-healthy lifestyle.
Wiesemann, J.S.; Maguire, H.T. Jr.
The age degradation of components involves a complex relationship between a variety of variables. These relationships are typically modeled using probabilistic and deterministic analyses. These methods depend upon a formal understanding of the underlying degradation mechanisms and a database of experience which allows statistical analyses to extract numerical trends. At present, not all age degradation mechanisms are adequately modeled and available data for age degradation is in most cases insufficient. In addition, these methods tend to focus upon answers to isolated questions (e.g., What is the component failure rate?) rather than the more pertinent questions concerning operations and maintenance (e.g., should the component be replaced at the next outage). Fortunately, knowledge in the form of personal experience does exist which allows plant personnel to make decisions concerning operations and maintenance. This knowledge can be modeled using expert systems. This paper discusses CAGES (Component Aging Expert System). It combines expert rules (heuristics), probabilistic models, and deterministic models to make evaluations of component aging; predict the implications for component life extension, operational readiness, maintenance effectiveness, and safety, and make recommendations for maintenance and operation
This is the ninth Technical Progress Report, describing work performed under DOE Contract No. (DE-FC2290PC896631) Development of a Coal Quality Expert.'' The contract is a Cooperative Agreement between the US Department of Energy, CQ Inc., and ABB Combustion Engineering, Inc. This report covers the period from April 1, through June 30, 1992. Four companies and seven host utilities have teamed with CQ Inc. and ABB/CE to perform the work on this project. The work falls under DOE's Clean Coal Technology Program category of Advanced Coal Cleaning.'' The 45-month project will provide the utility industry with a PC expert system to confidently and inexpensively evaluate the potential for coal cleaning blending, and switching options to reduce emissions while producing lowest cost electricity. Specifically, this project will: (1) Enhance the existing Coal Quality Information System (CQIS) database and. Coal Quality Impact Model (CQIM) to allow confident assessment of the effects of cleaning on specific boiler cost and performance. (2) Develop and validate a methodology, Coal Quality Expert (CQE) which allows accurate and detailed predictions of coal quality impacts on total power plant capital cost, operating cost, and performance based upon inputs from inexpensive bench-scale tests.
as with national and sub-national governments in Europe, all of them introducing interesting novelties in their innovation policy. These changes refer to different aspects of policy, mainly the content of policy initiatives towards science, technology and innovation; the instruments governments are using...... to achieve their goals; and the actors in the policy system that are being mobilised in pursuing these goals. This paper deals with these policy changes, paying special attention to the novelties introduced since the early 1990s in Europe. The perspective of this paper deals mainly on the changes introduced...... at the EU level, and mentions similar trends taking place at national and sub-national levels. The questions that guide the contents here are essentially three, namely, what are the main traits of innovation policies in Europe since the 1990s and how have the EU and different national governments approached...
Singh, Harpreet; Singh, Reema; Malhotra, Arjun; Kaur, Manjit
Efficient identification of subject experts or expert communities is vital for the growth of any organization. Most of the available expert finding systems are based on self-nomination, which can be biased, and are unable to rank experts. Thus, the objective of this work was to develop a robust and unbiased expert finding system which can quantitatively measure expertise. Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) is a controlled vocabulary developed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM) for indexing research publications, articles and books. Using the MeSH terms associated with peer-reviewed articles published from India and indexed in PubMed, we developed a Web-based program which can be used to identify subject experts and subjects associated with an expert. We have extensively tested our system to identify experts from India in various subjects. The system provides a ranked list of experts where known experts rank at the top of the list. The system is general; since it uses information available with the PubMed, it can be implemented for any country. The expert finding system is able to successfully identify subject experts in India. Our system is unique because it allows the quantification of subject expertise, thus enabling the ranking of experts. Our system is based on peer-reviewed information. Use of MeSH terms as subjects has standardized the subject terminology. The system matches requirements of an ideal expert finding system.
J.C. Ott (Jan Cornelis)
textabstractRichard Layard is an economist and an expert in unemployment and inequality. He worked for the British government as an economic advisor and in 2000 he became a member of the House of Lords. His ambition is to shift the direction of public policy away from crude economic goals like
As part of the major WEC study on Scenarios to 2050, a specific investigation was undertaken on measures required in the transport sector to secure sustainable energy and sustainable mobility in the future. This report outlines the results conducted by a study group of international WEC transport experts and gives concrete policy recommendations to develop sustainable transport systems.
cation technology (ICT) and now. Minister of Science and Technology, was one of the architects of Mozam- bique's ICT policy in 2000 — the first in Africa. Nationwide access to these technologies is one of the pillars of the government's science and technology policy. “We don't believe in politicians, but we believe in politics.
The festering problem of medical expert witnesses proffering false testimony in court remains. A review of the many proposed reforms to resolve this chronic and outrageous practice has indicated little progress despite a resolution by the American Medical Association enunciating that medical expert witness testimony is effectively the practice of medicine. A questionnaire was sent to 36 specialty organizations to determine whether they had established guidelines, position statements, policies, or bylaws that govern the disciplinary management of their members who testify falsely. Responses were obtained from all 36 specialty organizations and showed that over 80% had no definitive disciplinary policies to deal with this egregious practice. This finding is all the more surprising given repeated judicial and other exhortations to professional organizations to "police themselves." To address the abrogation of responsibility by specialty organizations, new stringent disciplinary steps are proposed to exorcise the despicable practice of false expert witness testimony from the practice of medicine.
Licker, R.; Ekwurzel, B.; Goldman, G. T.; DeLonge, M. S.
Many scientists conduct research with direct policy relevance, whether it be producing sea-level projections that are taken-up by local decision-makers, or developing new agricultural technologies. All scientists are affected by policies made by their respective local, regional, and federal governments. For example, budgets affect the grant resources available to conduct research and policies on visas influence the accessibility of new positions for foreign scientists. As a result, many scientists would like to engage with the policy domain, and either bring their science to bear on new policies that are in the works (science-for-policy) or inform policies on the scientific research enterprise (policy-for-science). Some scientists prefer to engage and be neutral to the policy outcome, serving primarily as an information resource. Many may choose to also advocate for a particular outcome based on their expertise and experience. Research shows that policy decisions benefit greatly from the input of scientific experts. We explore the spectrum between informing policies in a "non-prescriptive" manner to working on policies in an advocacy space. We highlight tips for successful engagement along this spectrum. Finally, we review current science-for-policy and policy-for-science issues of relevance to the geophysical sciences.
Pearce-Higgins, J.W.; Brown, D.J.; Douglas, D.J.T.; Alves, J.A.; Bellio, M.; Bocher, P.; Buchanan, G.M.; Clay, R.P.; Conklin, J.; Crockford, N.; Dann, P.; Elts, J.; Friis, C.; Fuller, R.A.; Gill, J.A.; Gosbell, K.; Johnson, J.A.; Marquez-Ferrando, R.; Masero, J.A.; Merlville, D.S.; Millington, S.; Minton, C.; Mundkur, T.; Nol, E.; Pehlak, H.; Piersma, T.; Robin, F.; Rogers, D.I.; Ruthrauff, D.R.; Senner, N.R.; Shah, J.N.; Sheldon, R.D.; Soloviev, S.A.; Tomkovich, P.S.; Verkuil, Y.I.
The Numeniini is a tribe of 13 wader species (Scolopacidae, Charadriiformes) of which seven are Near Threatened or globally threatened, including two Critically Endangered. To help inform conservation management and policy responses, we present the results of an expert assessment of the threats that
Pearce-Higgins, James W.; Brown, Daniel J.; Douglas, David J. T.; Alves, Jose A.; Bellio, Mariagrazia; Bocher, Pierrick; Buchanan, Graeme M.; Clay, Rob P.; Conklin, Jesse; Crockford, Nicola J.; Dann, Peter; Elts, Jaanus; Friis, Christian; Fuller, Richard A.; Gill, Jennifer A.; Gosbell, Ken; Johnson, James A.; Márquez-Ferrando, Rocío; Masero, Jose A.; Melville, David S.; Millington, Spike; Minton, Clive D. T.; Mundkur, Taej; Nol, Erica; Pehlak, Hannes; Piersma, Theunis; Robin, Frederic; Rogers, Danny I.; Ruthrauff, Daniel R.; Senner, Nathan R.; Shah, Junid N.; Sheldon, Rob D.; Soloviev, Sergej A.; Tomkovich, Pavel S.; Verkuil, Yvonne I.
The Numeniini is a tribe of 13 wader species (Scolopacidae, Charadriiformes) of which seven are Near Threatened or globally threatened, including two Critically Endangered. To help inform conservation management and policy responses, we present the results of an expert assessment of the threats that
Aahagen, H.; Andersson, K.
The Oskarshamn municipality is located on the Swedish south east coast and has about 27,000 inhabitants. Oskarshamn is hosting three nuclear reactors, the Interim Storage Facility where the spent fuel from Sweden's reactors is stored, the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory for underground research and the Encapsulation Laboratory where the welding technology is being developed. The industry is currently planning to apply for licensing of a disposal system for spent nuclear fuel between 2005 to 2010. Since 1992 Oskarshamn is a candidate municipality. Extensive efforts have been taken by the political leaders to initiate a public dialogue. A working model has been developed for the municipality work with seven policy statements (Openness and participation - everything on the table - real influence. EIA our platform - development of the basis for a decision by parties together, decisions independently. The Council our reference group - competent elected officials responsible towards the voters. The public - a resource - concrete plans and clear study results a prerequisite for public engagement and influence. The environmental groups - a resource - the environmental groups and their experts give us valuable contributions. Stretching of SKB to clear answers - we build competence so we can ask the difficult questions - we ask until we get clear answers. The competent authorities - our experts - the authorities visible throughout the process, our decision after statement by the competent authorities. The goal is to have a completely open process with all facts on the table in order to be able to take decisions on ''good grounds'' should the question for the next step in site selection be put to the municipality from the industry. The paper describes the work in Oskarshamn related to spent nuclear fuel and also reflects on the issue of retrievability from a public perspective. (author)
Full Text Available Abstract Background The current debate about medical futility is mostly driven by theoretical and personal perspectives and there is a lack of empirical data to document experts and public attitudes towards medical futility. Methods To examine the attitudes of the Japanese experts in the fields relevant to medical futility a questionnaire survey was conducted among the members of the Japan Association for Bioethics. A total number of 108 questionnaires returned filled in, giving a response rate of 50.9%. Among the respondents 62% were healthcare professionals (HCPs and 37% were non-healthcare professionals (Non-HCPs. Results The majority of respondents (67.6 % believed that a physician's refusal to provide or continue a treatment on the ground of futility judgment could never be morally justified but 22.2% approved such refusal with conditions. In the case of physiologically futile care, three-quarters believed that a physician should inform the patient/family of his futility judgment and it would be the patient who could decide what should be done next, based on his/her value judgment. However more than 10% said that a physician should ask about a patient's value and goals, but the final decision was left to the doctor not the patient. There was no statistically significant difference between HCPs and Non-HCPs (p = 0.676. Of respondents 67.6% believed that practical guidelines set up by the health authority would be helpful in futility judgment. Conclusion The results show that there is no support for the physicians' unilateral decision- making on futile care. This survey highlights medical futility as an emerging issue in Japanese healthcare and emphasizes on the need for public discussion and policy development.
Boccaccini, Marcus T; Turner, Darrel B; Murrie, Daniel C; Rufino, Katrina A
In a recent study of sex offender civil commitment proceedings, Murrie et al. (Psychol Public Policy Law 15:19-53, 2009) found that state-retained experts consistently assigned higher PCL-R total scores than defense-retained experts for the same offenders (Cohen's d > .83). This finding raises an important question about the validity of these discrepant scores: Which type of score, state or defense evaluator, provides the most useful information about risk? We examined the ability of PCL-R total scores from state and defense evaluators to predict future misconduct among civilly committed sex offenders (N = 38). For comparison, we also examined predictive validity when two state experts evaluated the same offender (N = 32). Agreement between evaluators was low for cases with opposing experts (ICCA,1 = .43 to .52) and for cases with two state experts (ICCA,1 = .40). Nevertheless, scores from state and defense experts demonstrated similar levels of predictive validity (AUC values in the .70 range), although scores from different types of state evaluators (corrections-contracted vs. prosecution-retained) did not. The finding of mean differences between opposing evaluator scores, but similar levels of predictive validity, suggests that scores from opposing experts in SVP cases may need to be interpreted differently depending on who assigned them. Findings have important implications for understanding how rater disagreement may relate to predictive validity.
Full Text Available Understanding the diverging opinions of academic experts, stakeholders and the public is important for effective conservation management. This is especially so when a consensus is needed for action to minimize future risks but the knowledge upon which to base this action is uncertain or missing. How to manage non-native, invasive species (NIS is an interesting case in point: the issue has long been controversial among stakeholders, but publicly visible, major disagreement among experts is recent.To characterize the multitude of experts’ understanding and valuation of non-native, NIS we performed structured qualitative interviews with 26 academic experts, 13 of whom were invasion biologists and 13 landscape experts. Within both groups, thinking varied widely, not only about basic concepts (e.g., non-native, invasive but also about their valuation of effects of NIS. The divergent opinions among experts, regarding both the overall severity of the problem in Europe and its importance for ecosystem services, contrasted strongly with the apparent consensus that emerges from scientific synthesis articles and policy documents. We postulate that the observed heterogeneity of expert judgments is related to three major factors: (1 diverging conceptual understandings, (2 lack of empirical information and high scientific uncertainties due to complexities and contingencies of invasion processes, and (3 missing deliberation of values. Based on theory from science studies, we interpret the notion of an NIS as a boundary object, i.e., concepts that have a similar but not identical meaning to different groups of experts and stakeholders. This interpretative flexibility of a concept can facilitate interaction across diverse groups but bears the risk of introducing misunderstandings. An alternative to seeking consensus on exact definitions and risk assessments would be for invasive species experts to acknowledge uncertainties and engage transparently with
Ren, Carina Bregnholm; Rasmussen, Rasmus Kjærgaard
planning and execution and of event outcomes beyond the narrow confines of bed nights and legacies. Second, we introduce policies as an entry point to unlock discussions and manifestations of value and futures which connect to AWG. In order to exemplify the workings of the AWG event in these domains, we...... present three central policy stories from the field. The stories tell of how the event was first interested, then activated and finally evaluated. Besides adding a new understanding to policy-driven events as a locus of value creation, we also argue that the AWG 2016 offer speculative bets for new...
McKellar, Jennifer M.; Sleep, Sylvia; Bergerson, Joule A.; MacLean, Heather L.
The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of oil sands operations has declined over time but has not offset absolute emissions growth due to rapidly increasing production. Policy making, decisions about research and development, and stakeholder discourse should be informed by an assessment of future emissions intensity trends, however informed projections are not easily generated. This study investigates expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions using expert elicitation. Thirteen experts participated in a survey, providing quantitative estimates of expected GHG emissions intensity changes and qualitative identifications of drivers. Experts generally agree that emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercially operating projects by 2033, with the greatest reductions expected through the use of technology in the in situ area of oil sands activity (40% mean reduction at multiple projects, averaged across experts). Incremental process changes are expected to contribute less to reducing GHG emissions intensity, however their potentially lower risk and cost may result in larger cumulative reductions. Both technology availability and more stringent GHG mitigation policies are required to realize these emissions intensity reductions. This paper demonstrates a method to increase rigour in emissions forecasting activities and the results can inform policy making, research and development and modelling and forecasting studies. - Highlights: • Expert elicitation used to investigate expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions. • Overall, emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercial projects by 2033. • Reductions are expected due to both technology changes and process improvements. • Technology availability and more stringent GHG policies are needed for reductions. • Method used increases rigour in emissions forecasting, and results inform policy.
Applying Artificial Intelligence technology to steam generator non-destructive examination (NDE) can help identify high risk locations in steam generators and can aid in preparing technical specification compliant eddy current test (ECT) programs. A steam Generator Inspection Planning Expert System has been developed which can assist NDE or utility personnel in planning ECT programs. This system represents and processes its information using an object oriented declarative knowledge base, heuristic rules, and symbolic information processing, three artificial intelligence based techniques incorporated in the design. The output of the system is an automated generation of ECT programs. Used in an outage inspection, this system significantly reduced planning time
Brito, J. de; Branco, F. A.; Thoft-Christensen, Palle
management systems are presently being implemented by bridge authorities in several countries. The prototype of an expert system for concrete bridge management is presented in this paper, with its functionality relying on two modules. The inspection module relies on a periodic acquisition of field......The importance of bridge repair versus new bridge construction has risen in recent decades due to high deterioration rates that have been observed in these structures. Budgets both for building new bridges and keeping the existing ones are always limited. To help rational decision-making, bridge...
D'Souza, Martin Giffy
Expert Oracle Application Express Plugins is your "go to" book on the groundbreaking plugin architecture introduced in Oracle Application Express 4.0. Using the new APEX functionality, you can create well-packaged, documented, reusable components and reliably leverage your coding investments across many applications. Components you create can define new item and region types, specify validation processes, and present dynamic actions to client applications. You can design innovative and colorful ways to display information, such as displaying the temperature using an image of a thermometer, or
Alapati, Sam R
Sam Alapati s Expert Oracle Database 11g Administration is a comprehensive handbook for Oracle database administrators (DBAs) using the latest release of the Oracle Database (Oracle Database 11g). All key aspects of database administration are covered, including backup and recovery, day to day administration and monitoring, performance tuning, and more. This is the one book to have on your desk as a continual reference. Refer to it frequently. It ll help you get the job done. * Comprehensive handbook for Oracle DBAs. Covers all major aspects of database administration. * Tests and explains in detail key DBA commands. * Offers primers on Linux/Unix, data modeling, SQL, and PL/SQL.
Carotenuto, M.; Corleto, P.; Landeyro, P.
The availability and suitability of technological information is of great importance in every kind of design task, especially when safety and reliability considerations are involved. In this paper an ''expert system for plant design'' (SEPI), is presented, together with its first application to nuclear back-end plants. This system is available on ENEA computer network. It is thought to be used both to collect know-how developed in the field and to assist unskilled designers during selection, evaluation and dimensioning tasks. It attemps to reproduce the normal way of ''reasoning'' and acting, and provides some graphic facilities
Reji, A.Y.; Rathakrishnan, S.; Das, R.; Krishnamohan, B.
This paper presents a broad conceptual picture for creating an expert system for PHWRs fuel management which can lead to an optimal choice among many possibilities. The main objective of fuel management is to meet optimally a large number of conflicting requirements viz maximum discharge burnup, optimum bundle power, maximum global power, optimum excess reactivity, clean core condition, predictive removal of channels prior to failure, balanced global flux/power distribution and ability to meet any other special requirement as when the situation demands it. (author). 5 refs., 1 fig
This report describes part of the development of an expert system in the domain of well-test analysis. This work has been done during my final internship, completed at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory. The report is divided in three parts: the first one gives a description of the state of the project at the time I first began to work on it, and raises some problems that have to be solved. The second section shows the results that have been reached, and the last one draws conclusions from these results and proposes extensions that would be useful in the future
Jensen, Karsten Klint; Lassen, Jesper; Robinson, P.
. The paper reports a series of qualitative interviews with lay people and experts on zoonotic food risks. The interviews are used to reconstruct the values underlying some of the dominant perspectives. The conflict between these stylised perspectives is then analysed with the help of moral theory. Finally...... concepts of risk and hence are bound more or less to talk at cross-purposes. This paper suggests an alternative analysis: In the light of moral theory, the conflicting perspectives can be understood as a genuine moral conflict. When this conflict is conceptualised, a rational dialogue becomes possible...
Reis, Thiago; Barroso, Antonio C.O.; Baptista, Benedito Filho D., E-mail: email@example.com, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org, E-mail: email@example.com [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)
In this paper we present preliminary research on web search and crawling algorithm applied specifically to nuclear-related web information. We designed a web-based nuclear-oriented expert system guided by a web crawler algorithm and a neural network able to search and retrieve nuclear-related hyper textual web information in autonomous and massive fashion. Preliminary experimental results shows a retrieval precision of 80% for web pages related to any nuclear theme and a retrieval precision of 72% for web pages related only to nuclear power theme. (author)
Reis, Thiago; Barroso, Antonio C.O.; Baptista, Benedito Filho D.
In this paper we present preliminary research on web search and crawling algorithm applied specifically to nuclear-related web information. We designed a web-based nuclear-oriented expert system guided by a web crawler algorithm and a neural network able to search and retrieve nuclear-related hyper textual web information in autonomous and massive fashion. Preliminary experimental results shows a retrieval precision of 80% for web pages related to any nuclear theme and a retrieval precision of 72% for web pages related only to nuclear power theme. (author)
Rosenking, Jeffrey P.; Roth, Stefan P.
REACT (Rapid Expert Assessment to Counter Threats) is a prototype artificial intelligence system which is being developed at the Grumman Corporate Research Center. The purpose of REACT is to aid pilots in determining appropriate threat response strategies during combat situations. REACT is also being designed to monitor the state of the aircraft's onboard systems in order to offload the pilot from performing some of these tasks. REACT will notify the pilot during unusual circumstances which require some corrective actions to be taken. Our approach to carrying out these tasks is to develop individual, cooperating expert systems. The REACT experts are being designed to execute independently to obtain specified goals and they will also have the capability to share information using a blackboard model so that they can work collectively to solve problems as a single system.
van der Sluijs Jeroen P
. Conclusions We conclude that, despite some known criticism on its validity, formal expert elicitation can support environmental health research in various ways. Its main purpose is to provide a temporary summary of the limited available knowledge, which can serve as a provisional basis for policy until further research has been carried out.
Sager, Fritz; Bürki, Marietta; Luginbühl, Jennifer
This paper investigates the interrelation of policy implementation and policy change by addressing the question of whether and how the Swiss energy program “EnergieSchweiz” influenced policy decisions. We discuss different ways in which a policy program may influence policy change: by negative and positive learning, by coalition building and by policy community building. Respective assumptions are tested in two case studies from the “EnergieSchweiz” program, which was in place from 2000 to 2010. We find that, while the policy program was not critical for the policy change itself, it nevertheless played a role as an agenda setter, as an initiator of learning processes as well as through its policy community. - Highlights: • We investigate how energy policy implementation impacts policy change. • We analyse the Swiss energy program “EnergieSchweiz” in place from 2000 to 2010. • Policy programs alone do not deliver policy change. • But they can influence it by agenda setting and by negative learning. • Expert networks have an influence if there are shared goals
Cremmins, Edward T.
Recommends use of entries from the information retrieval diary of Ted Crump, expert technical translator at the National Institute of Health, in the construction of computer models showing how expert translators solve problems of ambiguity in language. Expert and inexpert translation systems, eponyms, abbreviations, and alphabetic solutions are…
Duff, Jon M.
Presents current trends in the development of expert systems within the Department of the Navy, particularly research into expert graphics systems intended to support the Authoring Instructional Methods (AIM) research project. Defines artificial intelligence and expert systems. Discusses the operations and functions of the Navy's intelligent…
Madsen, Poul Thøis
It is well-known that economic experts (as well as other experts) are biased. However, it is not normally demonstrated systematically. By identifying and analyzing the viewpoints of the most quoted Danish expert on five characteristic debates bias is demonstrated. The character of the bias...
Furman, A.; Delgado, R.
The present work describes the analysis made to start with the development of an Expert System for the CAREM (SE) reactor's conduction. The following tasks are presented: a) purpose of the Expert System; b) Decision Making structure; c) Architecture of the Expert System; d) Description of Subsystems and e) Licensing. (Author) [es
Prominent figures believe that expert judgment must play a decisive role in implementing the NWPAA. A critical philosophical examination of this method is provided. Resolution of difficulties inherent to expert judgment reveals the adoption of equally problematic epistemological assumptions. A fresh approach which rejects the dichotomies bred by the controversy over the status of expert judgment is offered
Kiselev, N. N.; Kiseleva, E. V.
An analysis of pedagogical expert reviews at children's therapeutic recreation camps in Novosibirsk Region shows that it is necessary to implement an expert review system that plays a supporting and developmental role. Such a system should allow teams of teachers to submit their work to expert review and to move forward by reflecting on their…
Ito, Takayuki; Yokoo, Makoto; Matsubara, Shigeo
Auctions have become an integral part of electronic commerce and a promising field for applying multi-agent technologies. Correctly judging the quality of auctioned goods is often difficult for amateurs, in particular, in Internet auctions. However, experts can correctly judge the quality of goods. In this situation, it is difficult to make experts tell the truth and attain an efficient allocation, since experts have a clear advantage over amateurs and they would not reveal their valuable information without some reward. In our previous work, we have succeeded in developing such auction protocols under the following two cases: (1) the case of a single-unit auction among experts and amateurs, and (2) the case of a combinatorial auction among single-skilled experts and amateurs. In this paper, we focus on versatile experts. Versatile experts have an interest in, and expert knowledge on the qualities of several goods. In the case of versatile experts, there would be several problems, e.g., free riding problems, if we simply extended the previous VCG-style auction protocol. Thus, in this paper, we employ PORF (price-oriented, rationing-free) protocol for designing our new protocol to realize a strategy-proof auction protocol for experts. In the protocol, the dominant strategy for experts is truth-telling. Also, for amateurs, truth-telling is the best response when two or more experts select the dominant strategy. Furthermore, the protocol is false-name-proof.
Abreha Mesele Zinabu
The Reception of Incriminating Expert Evidence (i.e., Forensic Science) in Four. Adversarial Jurisdictions. University of Denver Criminal Law Review, Vol. 3, pp 31-109. 9 This is all about competence where it incorporates both the relevance of the qualification and the capability of the expert to provide the expert testimony.
Warby, Simon C.; Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter
to crowdsource spindle identification by human experts and non-experts, and we compared their performance with that of automated detection algorithms in data from middle- to older-aged subjects from the general population. We also refined methods for forming group consensus and evaluating the performance...... that crowdsourcing the scoring of sleep data is an efficient method to collect large data sets, even for difficult tasks such as spindle identification. Further refinements to spindle detection algorithms are needed for middle- to older-aged subjects....
MacDonald, Kath; Irvine, Lindesay; Smith, Margaret Coulter
To explore how young 'expert patients' living with Cystic Fibrosis and the healthcare professionals with whom they interact perceive partnership and negotiate care. Modern healthcare policy encourages partnership, engagement and self-management of long-term conditions. This philosophy is congruent with the model adopted in the care of those with Cystic Fibrosis, where self-management, trust and mutual respect are perceived to be integral to the development of the ongoing patient/professional relationship. Self-management is associated with the term; 'expert patient'; an individual with a long-term condition whose knowledge and skills are valued and used in partnership with healthcare professionals. However, the term 'expert patient' is debated in the literature as are the motivation for its use and the assumptions implicit in the term. A qualitative exploratory design informed by Interpretivism and Symbolic Interactionism was conducted. Thirty-four consultations were observed and 23 semi-structured interviews conducted between 10 patients, 2 carers and 12 healthcare professionals. Data were analysed thematically using the five stages of 'Framework' a matrix-based qualitative data analysis approach and were subject to peer review and respondent validation. The study received full ethical approval. Three main themes emerged; experiences of partnership, attributes of the expert patient and constructions of illness. Sub-themes of the 'ceremonial order of the clinic', negotiation and trust in relationships and perceptions of the expert patient are presented. The model of consultation may be a barrier to person-centred care. Healthcare professionals show leniency in negotiations, but do not always trust patients' accounts. The term 'expert patient' is unpopular and remains contested. Gaining insight into structures and processes that enable or inhibit partnership can lead to a collaborative approach to service redesign and a revision of the consultation model. © 2015
The validation and evaluation of an expert system for traffic control in highway work zones (TRANZ) is described. The stages in the evaluation process consisted of the following: revisit the experts, selectively distribute copies of TRANZ with docume...
Diagnostic is an intelligent act which means recognition of offnormal and identification of cause of plant. In the diagnosis process the operator has an image of the system in his mind by education, training, experience and makes use of his reasoning capacity. The lack of a centralized system to take into consideration the overall available data may lead to unnecessary shutdowns because of false alarms. It will be difficult all automatization of diagnosis instead of man, especially automatization of operator's diagnosis process. The solution would be a computerized operator support system to assist the operator in decision making. The paper brings into attention the use of an expert system for diagnosis in nuclear power plants and draws a global overview of such a system. As it is known an expert system consists in a resolution system (application independent) a knowledge base (representation of knowledge in declarative form) and a communication system. The system input consists in measured data from the process. This data are compared with rule conditions and associated actions are executed. The system provides a classification of possible diagnostics in the decreased order of certainty factors
M. Sarath Kumar
Full Text Available Modern rotating machines such as turbomachines, either produce or absorb huge amount of power. Some of the common applications are: steam turbine-generator and gas turbine-compressor-generator trains produce power and machines, such as pumps, centrifugal compressors, motors, generators, machine tool spindles, etc., are being used in industrial applications. Condition-based maintenance of rotating machinery is a common practice where the machine's condition is monitored constantly, so that timely maintenance can be done. Since modern machines are complex and the amount of data to be interpreted is huge, we need precise and fast methods in order to arrive at the best recommendations to prevent catastrophic failure and to prolong the life of the equipment. In the present work using vibration characteristics of a rotor-bearing system, the condition of a rotating machinery (electrical rotor is predicted using an off-line expert system. The analysis of the problem is carried out in an Object Oriented Programming (OOP framework using the finite element method. The expert system which is also developed in an OOP paradigm gives the type of the malfunctions, suggestions and recommendations. The system is implemented in C++.
Rahmani Katigari, Meysam; Ayatollahi, Haleh; Malek, Mojtaba; Kamkar Haghighi, Mehran
To design a fuzzy expert system to help detect and diagnose the severity of diabetic neuropathy. The research was completed in 2014 and consisted of two main phases. In the first phase, the diagnostic parameters were determined based on the literature review and by investigating specialists' perspectives ( n = 8). In the second phase, 244 medical records related to the patients who were visited in an endocrinology and metabolism research centre during the first six months of 2014 and were primarily diagnosed with diabetic neuropathy, were used to test the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the fuzzy expert system. The final diagnostic parameters included the duration of diabetes, the score of a symptom examination based on the Michigan questionnaire, the score of a sign examination based on the Michigan questionnaire, the glycolysis haemoglobin level, fasting blood sugar, blood creatinine, and albuminuria. The output variable was the severity of diabetic neuropathy which was shown as a number between zero and 10, had been divided into four categories: absence of the disease, (the degree of severity) mild, moderate, and severe. The interface of the system was designed by ASP.Net (Active Server Pages Network Enabled Technology) and the system function was tested in terms of sensitivity (true positive rate) (89%), specificity (true negative rate) (98%), and accuracy (a proportion of true results, both positive and negative) (93%). The system designed in this study can help specialists and general practitioners to diagnose the disease more quickly to improve the quality of care for patients.
Paal, Piret; Frick, Eckhard; Roser, Traugott; Jobin, Guy
This article elaborates on the hazards of spiritual history taking. It provides expert insights to consider before entering the field. In summer 2012, a group of spiritual care experts were invited to discuss the complexity of taking spiritual histories in a manner of hermeneutic circle. Thematic analysis was applied to define the emerging themes. The results demonstrate that taking a spiritual history is a complex and challenging task, requiring a number of personal qualities of the interviewer, such as 'being present', 'not only hearing, but listening', 'understanding the message beyond the words uttered', and 'picking up the words to respond'. To 'establish a link of sharing', the interviewer is expected 'to go beyond the ethical stance of neutrality'. The latter may cause several dilemmas, such as 'fear of causing more problems', 'not daring to take it further', and above all, 'being ambivalent about one's role'. Interviewer has to be careful in terms of the 'patient's vulnerability'. To avoid causing harm, it is essential to propose 'a follow-up contract' that allows responding to 'patient's yearning for genuine care'. These findings combined with available literature suggest that the quality of spiritual history taking will remain poor unless the health-care professionals revise the meaning of spirituality and the art of caring on individual level.
Expert Oracle SQL: Optimization, Deployment, and Statistics is about optimizing individual SQL statements, especially on production database systems. This Oracle-specific book begins by assuming you have already identified a particular SQL statement and are considering taking steps to improve its performance. The book describes a systematic process by which to diagnose a problem statement, identify a fix, and to implement that fix safely in a production system. You'll learn not only to improve performance when it is too slow, but also to stabilize performance when it is too variable. You'll learn about system statistics and how the Cost-Based Optimizer uses them to determine a suitable execution plan for a given statement. That knowledge provides the foundation from which to identify the root cause, and to stabilize and improve performance. Next after identifying a problem and the underlying root cause is to put in place a solution. Expert Oracle SQL: Optimization, Deployment, and Statistics explains how to ...
Greenwood-Ericksen, Margaret B; Poon, Sabrina J; Nelson, Lewis S; Weiner, Scott G; Schuur, Jeremiah D
Prescription drug monitoring programs are generally underused in emergency departments (ED) and nationwide enrollment is low among emergency physicians. We aimed to develop consensus recommendations for prescription drug monitoring program policy and design to optimize their functionality and use in the ED. We assembled a technical expert panel with key stakeholders in emergency medicine, public health, and public policy. The panel included academic and community-based emergency physicians, a pediatric fellowship-trained emergency physician, a medical toxicologist, a public health expert, a patient advocate, a legal expert, and two state prescription drug monitoring program administrators. We compiled prescription drug monitoring program policies and characteristics and organized them into domains based on user-prescription drug monitoring program interaction. The panel convened for 3 rounds in which the policies and characteristics were introduced, discussed, and modified in an iterative fashion to achieve consensus. The process yielded policy recommendations and design features, with majority agreement. The panel made 18 policy recommendations within these main themes: enrollment should be mandatory, with an automatic process to mitigate the workload; registration should be open to all prescribers; delegates should have access to prescription drug monitoring program to alleviate work flow burdens; prescription drug monitoring program data should be pushed into hospital electronic health records; prescription drug monitoring program review should be mandatory for patients receiving opioid prescriptions and based on objective criteria; the prescription drug monitoring program content should be standardized and updated in a timely manner; and states should encourage interstate data sharing. An expert panel identified 18 recommendations that can be used by states and policymakers to improve prescription drug monitoring program design to increase use in the ED
Huh, Young Hwan; Kim, Yeong Jin; Park, Nam Seog; Dong, In Sook; Choi, In Seon
The application of artificial intelligence techniques to nuclear power plants such as expert systems is rapidly emerging. expert systems can contribute significantly to the availability and the improved operation and safety of nuclear power plants. The objective of the project is to develop an expert system in a selected application area in the nuclear power plants. This project will last for 3 years. The first year's tasks are: - Information collection and literature survey on expert systems. - Analysis of several applicable areas for applying AI technologies to the nuclear power plants. - Conceptual design of a few selected domains. - Selection of hardware and software tools for the development of the expert system
Paris, Cecile L.
Our work in Explainable Expert Systems (EES) had two goals: to extend and enhance the range of explanations that expert systems can offer, and to ease their maintenance and evolution. As suggested in our proposal, these goals are complementary because they place similar demands on the underlying architecture of the expert system: they both require the knowledge contained in a system to be explicitly represented, in a high-level declarative language and in a modular fashion. With these two goals in mind, the Explainable Expert Systems (EES) framework was designed to remedy limitations to explainability and evolvability that stem from related fundamental flaws in the underlying architecture of current expert systems.
The article investigates why journalists choose to use experts as sources in their news coverage and the nature of the interaction of experts and journalists. During a month-long period in 2003, both journalists and experts were contacted on the day a news article appearing in one of the three...... largest national Danish newspapers referred to experts. In the vast majority of the cases, the contact comes as the result of initiatives taken by the journalists (approximately 90% of the cases), not the other way around (1 — 2% of the cases). Relatively active interaction proceeds between experts...
On the basis of atomic energy law, the author explains some specific problems associated with the respective roles of experts (or expert bodies) and courts of law. In legal theory, it is comparatively easy to draw the line between the two functions, but in practice this delimination meets with difficulties. Finally, the author proposes to improve the definitions of the respective functions of experts (expert bodies) and courts of law in procedures dealing with permits of large technical facilities as follows: A highly qualified, independent body of experts in a technically representative composition lays down, in a binding way, the main elements of the safety standard of a specific plant or type of plant. The responsible administrative authority, after having examined all other legal conditions, grants the permit for that plant. There are no objections to such a model in the light either of aspects of constitutional law or of legal policy or constitutional policy, not are there any practical reasons against this approach. The only doubtful aspect is the present political feasibility. (orig.) [de
Policy innovation labs are emerging knowledge actors and technical experts in the governing of education. The article offers a historical and conceptual account of the organisational form of the policy innovation lab. Policy innovation labs are characterised by specific methods and techniques of design, data science, and digitisation in public…
Claycamp, H Gregg
The "human health impacts assessment" described by Cox and Popken (this issue) is intended to be a benefit-risk tool that avoids pitfalls of using expert judgments for policy analysis or during strict application of the precautionary principle in risk management. The proposed benefit-risk calculation uses numerous assumptions and suppositions to calculate a ratio of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost for the number of human illness days prevented by the use of a food-animal antimicrobial drug, to the number of human illness days caused by the use of the antimicrobial drug. Assumptions about data--e.g., expert judgments on the representativeness of parameter estimates--are commonly used in risk assessment and risk management, including Cox and Popken's method. Cox and Popken apply the technique to specific examples of enrofloxacin and macrolides antimicrobial drugs, sometimes used in broiler chickens for human food. Although enthusiastically portrayed as a straightforward calculation of QALYs lost for two decision alternatives, Cox and Popken were silent on the pivotal expert judgment subsumed in their method: quality weights for illnesses caused by antimicrobial-resistant and antimicrobial-sensitive microbes are tacitly assumed to be equal. Yet, the costs in terms of prolonged illness, additional medications, repeat medical visits, and dread of more serious sequelae are expected to differ substantially for antimicrobial-resistant versus antimicrobial-sensitive illnesses. Despite their enthusiasm to the contrary, the "human health impacts assessment" by Cox and Popken is not immune from expert judgments in risk management.
Ghanian, Mansour; Ghoochani, Omid M; Kitterlin, Miranda; Jahangiry, Sheida; Zarafshani, Kiumars; Van Passel, Steven; Azadi, Hossein
The production of genetically modified (GM) crops is growing around the world, and with it possible opportunities to combat food insecurity and hunger, as well as solutions to current problems facing conventional agriculture. In this regard the use of GMOs in food and agricultural applications has increased greatly over the past decade. However, the development of GM crops has been a matter of considerable interest and worldwide public controversy. This, in addition to skepticism, has stifled the use of this practice on a large scale in many areas, including Iran. It stands to reason that a greater understanding of this practice could be formed after a review of the existing expert opinions surrounding GM crops. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to analyze the predictors that influence agricultural experts' attitudes toward the development of and policies related to GM crops. Using a descriptive correlational research method, questionnaire data was collected from 65 experts from the Agricultural Organization in the Gotvand district in Southwest Iran. Results indicated that agricultural experts were aware of the environmental benefits and possible risks associated with GM crops. The majority of participants agreed that GM crops could improve food security and accelerate rural development, and were proponents of labeling practices for GM crops. Finally, there was a positive correlation between the perception of benefits and attitudes towards GM crops.
Full Text Available Climate change is considered to be a significant influence for infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Climatic and non-climatic developments act together resulting in current and future infectious disease risk. This study uses a survey to explore Dutch expert perspectives on climate change induced infectious disease risk. The results show that the experts consider temperature change, precipitation change, humidity change, and climate change induced habitat change to be relatively important for water-related infectious disease risk, vector-borne disease risk excluding zoonoses, and the risk of zoonoses. The climatic drivers are seen as relatively less important for food-related infectious disease risk. The experts rate many non-climatic drivers to be highly important for infectious disease risk. Comparatively, the majority of the non-climatic drivers assessed are seen as more important than climate change drivers. The degree of uncertainty in the future development of climatic drivers is viewed as moderate to high, and for non-climatic drivers mostly as moderate. An analysis of subsamples based on professional backgrounds reveals differences in experts’ opinions for e.g., socio-cultural drivers, and similarities. Diversity and consensus amongst expert perspectives on climate change and infectious diseases can have implications for policy. Further research to uncover and compare prevailing perspectives is necessary.
Hansson, Anders; Bryngelsson, Marten
There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)-e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (i) the function and potential of CCS and (ii) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements.
Gibson, H.; Stewart, I. S.; Stokes, A.; Pahl, S.
In communicating geoscience topics, emphasis is often given to approaches such as the use of narrative to make a message engaging and reducing the use of jargon to ensure that it is understood by as wide a group of people as possible. Whilst these are undeniably important techniques to promote effective communication, an aspect of geoscience communication that is often overlooked is the publics' conceptual frameworks about core geoscience concepts. The consideration of different conceptual frameworks fits with the need to ensure that the framing is appropriate for the message, but it extends beyond simple framing into more complicated issues of addressing and incorporating pre- and mis-conceptions in geoscience. In a study examining expert and non-expert cognitive (mental) models of the geological subsurface in south-west England, several gaps were found between the fundamental ways that experts and non-experts conceptualise this invisible realm. Of these, three gaps were considered to be particularly important and common to many participants: the use of spatial reasoning; the application of surface experiences to subsurface processes; and the connection between the surface and subsurface. This paper will examine the evidence for these three important conceptual gaps between specialists and non-specialists and will address how this type of cognitive study can help improve effective geoscience communication.
In Jones v Kaney  2 AC 398, the United Kingdom Supreme Court held that in England and Wales (but not in Scotland), clients can sue expert witnesses in negligence and/or contract for work performed under their retainer, whether in civil or criminal trials. The duties of expert witnesses in England are regulated by the Civil Procedure Rules and Protocols; the former also regulate the conduct of cases involving expert opinions. The legal context that led to the litigation is examined in the light of these rules, in particular, the nature of the allegations against Dr Kaney, a psychologist retained to provide psychiatric opinion. Jones v Kaney, as a decision of the United Kingdom Supreme Court, is not a binding precedent in Australia. However, unlike statutory enactments, common law judgments are retrospective in their operation, which means that health care practitioners who follow a generally accepted practice today may still be sued for damages by their patients or clients in the future. By definition, the future, including the refusal by the Australian High Court to follow Kaney's abolition of expert witnesses' immunity from suit for breach of duty to their clients, cannot be predicted with certainty. Consequently, health care practitioners in Australia and other countries should be aware of the case, its jurisprudential and practical ramifications.
Most judges, by the very nature of their educational background, are less than sufficiently prepared for the task to fully comprehend the problems in disputes concerning scientific subjects. Judicial cognizance in such matters gives no support. The judge has no recourse but to rely on Expert Evidence. However, such evidence, especially in the adversarial system, requires the ability to evaluate it. Back to square one? Almost. The Israeli court borrowed, and followed for many years, the American solution - the Frye Principle (Frye v. United States, 54 App.D.C. at 47, 293 F. 1013 (1923) 1014) - "the thing from which the deduction is made must be sufficiently established to have gained general acceptance in the particular field in which it belongs " - meaning that an Expert's view is held as true if proven that it had been held by "the scientific community." This solution presented an almost insurmountable problem for novel scientific ideas. The were also exceptions - several Israeli Courts made the rather difficult task of examining the Experts' "working papers", i.e. the "crude" data on which he based his deductions. The model of such effort seems to be the English decision, by Stuart-Smith LJ in Loveday v Renton and Wellcome Foundation Ltd. ( (QBD) 1 Med Law Review, 1990:117). Seventy years after Frye the U.S. Supreme Court reviewed the subject of evaluation of scientific evidence. The new requirements were "... (1) ... whether the theory or technique can be and has been tested; (2) ... whether the theory or technique has been subjected to peer review ... (3) ... the known or potential rate of error of[the] technique; (4) [no requirement of] a particular degree of acceptance of the theory or technique within that [scientific] community, ... and (5) the inquiry is a flexible one, and the focus must be solely on principles and methodology, not on the conclusions that such principles and methodology generate ". Namely - the Judge, guided by intelligence and logic, is
Megan L Clayton
Full Text Available Food Policy Councils (FPC help to identify and address the priorities of local, state, and regional food systems with the goal of improving food systems through policy. There is limited research describing FPCs' strategies for accomplishing this goal. As part of a larger study examining FPC policy efforts, this paper investigates the role of partnerships in food systems policy change. We conducted interviews with representatives from 12 purposefully selected FPCs in the United States and 6 policy experts identified by the selected FPC representatives to document and describe their policy work. One theme that emerged from those interviews was the role of partners. Interviewees described a range of partners (e.g., stakeholders from government, business, and education and credited FPC partnerships with advancing their policy goals by increasing the visibility and credibility of FPCs, focusing their policy agenda, connecting FPCs to key policy inputs (e.g., local food community knowledge and priorities, and obtaining stakeholder buy-in for policy initiatives. Partnerships were also described as barriers to policy progress when partners were less engaged or had either disproportionate or little influence in a given food sector. Despite these challenges, partnerships were found to be valuable for FPCs efforts to effectively engage in the food policy arena.
Leeuwenburgh, Marjolein M.N., E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org [Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Department of Radiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Wiarda, Bart M. [Department of Radiology, Alkmaar Medical Center, Alkmaar (Netherlands); Jensch, Sebastiaan [Department of Radiology, Sint Lucas Andreas Hospital, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Wouter van Es, H. [Department of Radiology, Sint Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Stockmann, Hein B.A.C. [Department of Surgery, Kennemer Gasthuis, Haarlem (Netherlands); Gratama, Jan Willem C. [Department of Radiology, Gelre Hospitals, Apeldoorn (Netherlands); Cobben, Lodewijk P.J. [Department of Radiology, Haaglanden Medical Center, Leidschendam (Netherlands); Bossuyt, Patrick M.M. [Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Boermeester, Marja A. [Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Stoker, Jaap [Department of Radiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands)
Objective: To compare accuracy and interobserver agreement between radiologists with limited experience in the evaluation of abdominal MRI (non-experts), and radiologists with longer MR reading experience (experts), in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis. Methods: MR imaging was performed in 223 adult patients with suspected appendicitis and read independently by two members of a team of eight MR-inexperienced radiologists, who were trained with 100 MR examinations previous to this study (non-expert reading). Expert reading was performed by two radiologists with a larger abdominal MR experience (>500 examinations) in consensus. A final diagnosis was assigned after three months based on all available information, except MRI findings. We estimated MRI sensitivity and specificity for appendicitis and for all urgent diagnoses separately. Interobserver agreement was evaluated using kappa statistics. Results: Urgent diagnoses were assigned to 147 of 223 patients; 117 had appendicitis. Sensitivity for appendicitis was 0.89 by MR-non-expert radiologists and 0.97 in MR-expert reading (p = 0.01). Specificity was 0.83 for MR-non-experts versus 0.93 for MR-expert reading (p = 0.002). MR-experts and MR-non-experts agreed on appendicitis in 89% of cases (kappa 0.78). Accuracy in detecting urgent diagnoses was significantly lower in MR-non-experts compared to MR-expert reading: sensitivity 0.84 versus 0.95 (p < 0.001) and specificity 0.71 versus 0.82 (p = 0.03), respectively. Agreement on urgent diagnoses was 83% (kappa 0.63). Conclusion: MR-non-experts have sufficient sensitivity in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis, with good agreement with MR-expert reading, but accuracy of MR-expert reading was higher.
Leeuwenburgh, Marjolein M.N.; Wiarda, Bart M.; Jensch, Sebastiaan; Wouter van Es, H.; Stockmann, Hein B.A.C.; Gratama, Jan Willem C.; Cobben, Lodewijk P.J.; Bossuyt, Patrick M.M.; Boermeester, Marja A.; Stoker, Jaap
Objective: To compare accuracy and interobserver agreement between radiologists with limited experience in the evaluation of abdominal MRI (non-experts), and radiologists with longer MR reading experience (experts), in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis. Methods: MR imaging was performed in 223 adult patients with suspected appendicitis and read independently by two members of a team of eight MR-inexperienced radiologists, who were trained with 100 MR examinations previous to this study (non-expert reading). Expert reading was performed by two radiologists with a larger abdominal MR experience (>500 examinations) in consensus. A final diagnosis was assigned after three months based on all available information, except MRI findings. We estimated MRI sensitivity and specificity for appendicitis and for all urgent diagnoses separately. Interobserver agreement was evaluated using kappa statistics. Results: Urgent diagnoses were assigned to 147 of 223 patients; 117 had appendicitis. Sensitivity for appendicitis was 0.89 by MR-non-expert radiologists and 0.97 in MR-expert reading (p = 0.01). Specificity was 0.83 for MR-non-experts versus 0.93 for MR-expert reading (p = 0.002). MR-experts and MR-non-experts agreed on appendicitis in 89% of cases (kappa 0.78). Accuracy in detecting urgent diagnoses was significantly lower in MR-non-experts compared to MR-expert reading: sensitivity 0.84 versus 0.95 (p < 0.001) and specificity 0.71 versus 0.82 (p = 0.03), respectively. Agreement on urgent diagnoses was 83% (kappa 0.63). Conclusion: MR-non-experts have sufficient sensitivity in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis, with good agreement with MR-expert reading, but accuracy of MR-expert reading was higher
Klitzner, Michael D; Thomas, Sue; Schuler, Jonathan; Hilton, Michael; Mosher, James
The National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism's Alcohol Policy Information System (APIS) is, for the first time, adding legal data pertaining to recreational cannabis use to its current offerings on alcohol policy. Now that Colorado, Washington, Oregon, Alaska, and the District of Columbia have legalized aspects of recreational cannabis, and more states are considering it, there is an urgency to provide high-quality, multi-dimensional legal data to the public health community. This article introduces the Cannabis Policy Taxonomy recently posted on APIS, and explores its theoretical and empirical contributions to the substance abuse literature and its potential for use in policy research. We also present results of interviews with public health experts in alcohol and cannabis policy, which sought to determine the most important variables to address in the initial release of cannabis policy data. From this process, we found that pricing controls emerged as the variable singled out by the largest number of experts. This analysis points to a host of vital policies that are of increasing importance to public health policy scholars and their current and future research.
Delaigue, D.; Grundstein, M.
The French multinational nuclear energy world leader, Framatome, has designed and installed more than 40000 MWe of power in both France and abroad using Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) technology. The French nuclear program ranks as one of the most successful in the world. In 1983, Framatome entered the Applied Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) field by setting up FRAMENTEC S.A., a joint venture with TEKNOWLEDGE Inc. Today, Framentec is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Framatome and is among the leading European companies specializing in Applied Artificial Intelligence. Framatome now has a 7.5% stake in Teknowledge Inc. The main applications in the nuclear industry can be summarized as follows: quality assurance; design of systems subject to extreme operating conditions; maintenance of complex systems; control of complex phenomenon producing high velocity transients; expert advice in multiple fields; compliance with complex regulations; high-skill personnel requirements; heavy financial investments
Hashemi, S.; Patterson, L.; Jeffery, M.; Delashmutt, L.
The PLEXSYS software engineering tool provides an environment with which utility engineers can build and use expert systems for power plant applications. PLEXSYS provides the engineer with access to many powerful Artificial Intelligence methodologies, while retaining an engineering frame of reference and minimizing the need for a formal background in computer science. The principle concept is that the description and understanding of power plant systems centers on graphical forms such as piping and instrumentation diagrams and electrical line diagrams, which define a graphics-based model of plant knowledge that is common to many applications. PLEXSYS provides a model editor that allows the user to construct and modify models of hydraulic, electrical, and information systems in terms of elementary components and their interconnections. Analysis of the resulting schematic models is provided by several functions that perform network analysis, schematic browsing, mathematical modeling and customization of the user interface. 41 figs., 1 tab
Many US Department of Energy sites and facilities will be environmentally remediated during the next several decades. A number of the restoration activities (e.g., decontamination and decommissioning of inactive nuclear facilities) can only be carried out by remote means and will be manipulation-intensive tasks. Experience has shown that manipulation tasks are especially slow and fatiguing for the human operator of a remote manipulator. In this paper, the authors present a rule-based expert system for automated, dextrous robotic grasping. This system interprets the features of an object to generate hand shaping and wrist orientation for a robot hand and arm. The system can be used in several different ways to lessen the demands on the human operator of a remote manipulation system - either as a fully autonomous grasping system or one that generates grasping options for a human operator and then automatically carries out the selected option
Benoist, P.; Besnard, R.; Bayon, G.; Boutaine, J.L.
C.E.A. has developed an original tool, a N.D.E software running on a workstation, able to handle different types of files: ultrasonics, eddy current, radiography, neutronography. The system is based on the experience of different SACLAY's laboratories and the different experts have brought their competence and knowledge in order to build this new software. Following the SPARTACUS approach, this tool allows to superpose images issued from various N.D.E. acquisitions. Modeling is directly integrated to the system, which permits to combine simulation and processing displays. 3 D imaging, signal processing and direct convolution of the data are also available. This software, named CIVA, improves the capacities of the N.D.E.; different examples of applications are shown, either for industrial or industrial applications. (authors) 6 refs., 14 figs
Mamdani, A.; Efstathiou, J.
This report brings together recent developments both in expert systems and in optimisation, and deals with current applications in industry. Part One is concerned with Artificial Intellegence in planning and scheduling and with rule-based control implementation. The tasks of control maintenance, rescheduling and planning are each discussed in relation to new theoretical developments, techniques available, and sample applications. Part Two covers model based control techniques in which the control decisions are used in a computer model of the process. Fault diagnosis, maintenance and trouble-shooting are just some of the activities covered. Part Three contains case studies of projects currently in progress, giving details of the software available and the likely future trends. One of these, on qualitative plant modelling as a basis for knowledge-based operator aids in nuclear power stations is indexed separately. (author)
Ojczyk, C. [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States); Huelman, P. [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States); Carmody, J. [Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States)
The NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership held an expert meeting on Foundations–Research Results on November 15, 2011, in Minneapolis, MN. Audience participation was actively encouraged during each presentation to uncover needs and promote dialog among researchers and industry professionals. Key results were: greater understanding of the role of moisture transport through foundation and insulation materials and its potential impact on building durability; greater understanding of the role of foundation type in the process of selecting an insulation system for energy performance and building durability; need for research to quantify the risks associated with insulation processes to better enable users to weigh costs and benefits against the existing conditions of a home; need for improved performance modeling capabilities that address variations in foundation types and soil conditions.
Gobet, F; Simon, H A
After reviewing the relevant theory on chess expertise, this paper re-examines experimentally the finding of Chase and Simon (1973a) that the differences in ability of chess players at different skill levels to copy and to recall positions are attributable to the experts' storage of thousands of chunks (patterned clusters of pieces) in long-term memory. Despite important differences in the experimental apparatus, the data of the present experiments regarding latencies and chess relations between successively placed pieces are highly correlated with those of Chase and Simon. We conclude that the two-second inter-chunk interval used to define chunk boundaries is robust, and that chunks have psychological reality. We discuss the possible reasons why Masters in our new study used substantially larger chunks than the Master of the 1973 study, and extend the chunking theory to take account of the evidence for large retrieval structures (templates) in long-term memory.
As experience with on-line information systems, experts systems and artificial intelligence tools grows, the authors retreat from the first euphoria that AI could help them solve the problem they were unable to solve with conventional programming. The major effort of the development time goes into building the knowledge-base. There is no such thing as a generic knowledge-base for nuclear power plants as there is, for example, for the diagnosis of a Boeing 747 aircraft. AI-methods, tools and hardware are still in a state which does not optimally lend itself to real-time application. The ability of developing prototype systems to investigate variants otherwise too costly to justify is one advantage that the authors gladly accept. Last, but no least the tools provide a flexible and adaptable user interface (desktop window systems) etc. The development of such tools in a project would be prohibitive and room for experimentation would be limited
Full Text Available The dynamic nature of economic processes and phenomena, their complexity and diversity, the prospect of economic globalization and decentralization, have determined the decision makers to focus on continually improving the methods and techniques aimed to support them, both at the microeconomic and the macroeconomic level. The work in hand compares Business Intelligence Systems (BIS in relation to Intelligent Business Systems (IBS. We highlight the ways to shift from an E-business system to an IBS system, provide a solution for an Intelligent Business System based on Production Rules (IBSPR. We use this solution in developing a four levels Web application to solve a problem of planning, in compliance with all of the developing phases of an expert system, by using a methodology like UML-Agent for the analysis of the application and by using .Net technology.
Heard, Astrid E.; Pinkowski, Patrick P.; Adler, Richard M.; Hosken, R. Bruce
Artificial intelligence aids engineers and technicians in controlling and monitoring complicated systems. Operations Analyst for Distributed Systems (OPERA) software is developmental suite of expert-system computer programs helping engineers and technicians operating from number of computer workstations to control and monitor spacecraft during prelaunch and launch phases of operation. OPERA designed to serve as consultant to operating engineers and technicians. It preprocesses incoming data, using expertise collected from conglomerate of specialists in design and operation of various parts of system. Driven by menus and mouse-activated commands. Modified versions of OPERA used in chemical-processing plants, factories, banks, and other enterprises in which there are distributed-computer systems including computers that monitor or control other computers.
Verma, Anoop K.; Kumar, Sachil; Rathore, Shiuli; Pandey, Abhishek
Forensic dentistry has become an integral part of forensic science over the past 100 years that utilizes dental or oro-facial findings to serve the judicial system. This has been due to the dedication of people like Gustafson's, Keiser-Nielson, and Suzuki for this field. They established the essential role which forensic dentistry plays mainly in the identification of human remains. The tooth has been used as weapons and under certain circumstances, may leave information about the identity of the biter. Dental professionals have a major role to play in keeping accurate dental records and providing all necessary information so that legal authorities may recognize mal practice, negligence, fraud or abuse, and identity of unknown individuals. This paper will try to summarize the various roles of dental experts in forensic medicine. PMID:25298709
Science as an input to patented inventions is a fundamental of economic growth. However, our understanding of how science is transformed into patents is limited. In the present paper I seek to fill this gap by examining the micro-foundations of science-patent transformations. Using an inductive......, grounded theory approach to study the transformation of 12 scientific discoveries into patents I recast the relationship between science and patents: I show it as a particular process that affects patent breadth. Exploiting surplus patent breadth depends on the processes of abstraction and cognitive...... variety, which can be mobilized by patenting experts. The theory is tested using a recently published algebraic interpretive method for examining causal relationships in small-N studies....
Wang, Y.C.; Qin, S.J.
Expert systems, known as a powerful tool to those numerical problems accompanied with logical argumentation, are facing the era of extended application into the engineering fields beyond the classical scopes of diagnosis and consultation. With regard to pressure vessels design it seems that the most important task is to establish a general purpose frame based on a microcomputer skeleton system to meet the various requirements of different vessels. The authors have made an attempt to perform such a skeleton designated file, ESTOOL, in order to achieve the objectives of executing numerical calculation combined with logical reasoning, and attaining higher efficiency of rules searching process. It has been successfully patched to the design software package for jacketed vessel with stirring shaft. This paper presents the guiding concepts and basic structure of ESTOOL via knowledge acquisition subsystem and inference engine
Full Text Available Background. The Latin American region is undergoing a demographic and epidemiological transition, which is leading to an increase in chronic and degenerative diseases. Osteoporosis (OP and fragility fractures (FF are emerging as main causes of disease burden with great impact on health institutions. Purpose. This review article provides an updated overview of trends in the epidemiology and economic impact of OP and FF, as well as in diagnosis and available treatments in Latin America, including calcium, vitamin D and prevention programs. Methods. Expert panel. Conclusions. According to this review, there is a lack of epidemiological and economic information in the region. It is desirable to obtain information regarding quality of life in OP and FF as well as to highlight prevention as a tool to reduce FF.
Verma, Anoop K; Kumar, Sachil; Rathore, Shiuli; Pandey, Abhishek
Forensic dentistry has become an integral part of forensic science over the past 100 years that utilizes dental or oro-facial findings to serve the judicial system. This has been due to the dedication of people like Gustafson's, Keiser-Nielson, and Suzuki for this field. They established the essential role which forensic dentistry plays mainly in the identification of human remains. The tooth has been used as weapons and under certain circumstances, may leave information about the identity of the biter. Dental professionals have a major role to play in keeping accurate dental records and providing all necessary information so that legal authorities may recognize mal practice, negligence, fraud or abuse, and identity of unknown individuals. This paper will try to summarize the various roles of dental experts in forensic medicine.
Science as an input to patented inventions is a fundamental of economic growth. However, our understanding of how science is transformed into patents is limited. In the present paper I seek to fill this gap by examining the micro-foundations of science-patent transformations. Using an inductive......, grounded theory approach to study the transformation of 12 scientific discoveries into patents I recast the relationship between science and patents: I show it as a particular process that affects patent breadth. Exploiting surplus patent breadth depends on the processes of abstraction and cognitive...... variety, which can be mobilized by patenting experts. The theory is tested using a recently published algebraic interpretive method for examining causal relationships in small-N studies....
Booth, A.W.; Forster, R.; Gustafsson, L.; Ho, N.
It is well known that the FASTBUS Segment Interconnect (SI) provides a communication path between two otherwise independent, asynchronous bus segments. The SI is probably the most important module in any FASTBUS data acquisition network since it's failure to function can cause whole segments of the network to be inaccessible and sometimes inoperable. This paper describes SIDES, an intelligent program designed to diagnose SI's both in situ as they operate in a data acquisition network, and in the laboratory in an acceptance/repair environment. The paper discusses important issues such as knowledge acquisition; extracting knowledge from human experts and other knowledge sources. SIDES can benefit high energy physics experiments, where SI problems can be diagnosed and solved more quickly. Equipment pool technicians can also benefit from SIDES, first by decreasing the number of SI's erroneously turned in for repair, and secondly as SIDES acts as an intelligent assistant to the technician in the diagnosis and repair process
McGann, Camille; Miaullis, Aaron; Page, Neil
The social and political climates are changing rapidly in the United States and the world at large. The threat of a chemical, biologic, radiologic, and/or nuclear event is a rising concern to many. The current Ebola crisis has shed light on health care providers' preparedness for such an event. Radiologists, including radiation oncologists, nuclear medicine specialists, and all radiology subspecialists are considered "subject matter experts" in this area and are likely to be called upon in response to a radiation incident. Although others, such as radiation safety officers, provide important expertise, the clinical leadership will be the responsibility of physicians and other health care providers. However, many radiologists are unaware that they are considered subject matter experts who may be called on to assist, should their local hospital's emergency department need to take care of casualties from a radiation incident. A mass-casualty situation with hundreds of patients would require the immediate assistance of all available medical providers. Radiologists are primed and positioned to take the lead in ensuring preparedness of their local hospital and community, through emergency planning for a radiologic incident, given their combined medical and radiation physics knowledge. Therefore, increasing the skills of radiologists first is the more prudent approach in such planning. This preparation can be done through understanding of the critical components of such scenarios: the threat, types of radiation incidents, contamination, detection, decontamination, and acute radiation syndrome and its treatment. Once the necessary knowledge supplementation has been completed, radiologists can participate in educating their fellow medical colleagues and health care staff, and assist in the radiation-related aspects of an "all hazards" emergency department response, decreasing "radiophobia" in the process. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Marquet, A; Ollivier, F; Boutoille, D; Thibaut, S; Potel, G; Ballereau, F
The aim of this study was to consider the implementation of a network of infectious diseases (ID) experts to optimize the antibiotic prescriptions of community and hospital practitioners. An observational prospective study was conducted among ID experts in the Pays-de-la-Loire Region to evaluate the number of calls and to determine the practitioner's reasons for soliciting ID expertise. For each phone consultation, four criteria were recorded during 5 days: origin of the call (internal/external), kind of question (diagnostic/therapeutic) time spent for the advice provided, type of advice. A total of 386 phone consultations for 20 infectious disease specialists were recorded during the study period (5 days); 81% were internal to the hospital, 7.7% from another hospital, and 11.3% from private practice, 56.3% of the questions concerned a therapeutic strategy, 21% a diagnostic advice, and 22.6% concerned both diagnosis and therapy. Two third of the questions were answered within 10minutes. In 68.7% of cases, the ID specialist answered immediately, 19.8% of calls required following-up the patient, 6% led to refer the patient to an ID consultation, and 5.5% to hospitalization. The survey results stress the important need for such ID expertise, both in hospitals and in ambulatory medicine. Collaboration of ID specialists in a regional network would allow an easy and permanent access to antibiotic therapy advice for prescribers. This network would improve the quality and safety of care. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
Baldwin, G B
Bernard Berelson's book, "Population Policy in Developed Countries," provides a report on population policy in the developed world as of the early 1970s, covering countries with 20 million population or over, and 11 countries of special interest. There are chapters by national experts from 25 countries. A developed country is defined as industrialized, healthier, better educated, better off, more modernized, and distinguished by low fertility. This does not mean that population growth in these countries has yet fallen to zero or lower, but in 7 or 8 countries, population is expected to stabilize in a decade or so unless recent fertility trends reverse themselves or are offset by immigration. The conclusions drawn from the 25 country reports are summarized, and highlights of the demographic situation and policies in 12 of the countries are presented, Berelson is cautious in predicting the future shape of population policy in the developed world. There have been too many policy changes in the past to be confident of the future. He feels, however, that more and more people are likely to accept the goal of replacement, up to replacement in some countries and down to replacement in others.
This volume contains the four Key Issues Papers prepared as background papers by international expert groups for the Senior Expert Symposium on Electricity and the Environment held in Helsinki, Finland in May 1991. The papers are on topics selected as the central themes of the symposium: energy and electricity supply and demand - implications for the global environment; energy sources and technologies for electricity generation; comparative environmental and health effects of different energy systems for electricity generation; and the incorporation of environmental and health impacts into policy, planning and decision making for the electricity sector. The four papers have been indexed separately. Refs, figs and tabs
This policy reader comprises: Correspondence; Memorandum of Understanding between the US Department of Transportation and the US Department of Energy for the Transportation of Radioactive Materials under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act; Internal Guidelines for Interactions with Communities and Local Governments; Statement by Ben C. Rusche before the Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs, Subcommittee on Energy and the Environment, US House of Representatives, September 13, 1985; Speech presented by Ben C. Rusche before the ANS/CNS/AESJ/ENS Topical Meeting, Pasco, Washington, September 24, 1985 - ''Status of the United States' High-Level Nuclear Waste Disposal Program''; and ''DOE Seeks Comments on Nuclear Transportation Planning,'' DOE News, September 30, 1985
Participants in the Seminar on Population Policies for Top-level Policy Makers and Program Managers, meeting in Thailand during January 1987, examined the challenges now facing them regarding the implementation of fertility regulation programs in their respective countries -- Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand. This Seminar was organized to coincide with the completion of an Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) study investigating the impact and efficiency of family planning programs in the region. Country studies were reviewed at the Seminar along with policy issues about the status of women, incentive and disincentive programs, and socioeconomic factors affecting fertility. In Bangladesh the government recognizes population growth as its top priority problem related to the socioeconomic development of the country and is working to promote a reorientation strategy from the previous clinic-oriented to a multidimensional family welfare program. China's family planning program seeks to postpone marraige, space the births of children between 3-5 years, and promote the 1-child family. Its goal is to reduce the rate of natural increase from 12/1000 in 1978 to 5/1000 by 1985 and 0 by 2000. India's 7th Five-Year-Plan (1986-90) calls for establishing a 2-child family norm by 2000. In Indonesia the government's population policy includes reducing the rate of population growth, achieving a redistribution of the population, adjusting economic factors, and creating prosperous families. The government of Indonesia reversed its policy to reduce the population growth rate in 1984 and announced its goal of achieving a population of 70 million by 2100 in order to support mass consumption industries. It has created an income tax deduction system favoring large families and maternity benefits for women who have up to 5 children as incentives. Nepal's official policy is to
Lauridsen, Karen M.
Like any other text, instructive texts function within a given cultural and situational setting and may only be available in one language. However, the end users may not be familiar with that language and therefore unable to read and understand the instructions. This article therefore argues...... that instructive texts should always be available in a language that is understood by the end users, and that a corporate communication policy which includes a language policy should ensure that this is in fact the case for all instructive texts....
Rittl, Tatiana Francischinelli; Arts, Bas; Kuyper, Thomas W.
Highlights: • The Brazilian biochar debate is driven by Embrapa experts. • The dominant ADE/biochar discourse has been replaced by biochar/technology discourse. • The international biochar/climate change discourse hardly resonates in Brazil. • Biochar topic is not covered by any formal procedure in Brazil so far. - Abstract: Biochar, the solid product of pyrolysis, has emerged as a new technology and policy tool to address various environmental challenges (climate change, food production and agricultural waste management). The concept of biochar drew its inspiration from Amazonian practices that had led to the creation of Amazonian Dark Earth (ADE): fertile soils rich in (bio)char and human artefacts. In this article, we conceptualize biochar as an emerging policy arrangement, and examine it along the four dimensions of the Policy Arrangement Approach (PAA), which are actors, discourse, power and rules. We focus on Brazil as an important player in the international biochar debate. Our analysis shows that science experts are the predominant players in the network, while policy-makers, businessmen and farmers are marginally positioned. Experts from Embrapa occupy central positions and thus exercise most power in the network. Moreover, experts linked to ADE have lost prominence in the network. The reason for this is to be found in the shift from the ADE/biochar to the biochar/technology discourse. The latter discourse includes different coalitions such as ‘climate change mitigation’, the ‘improvement of soil fertility’ and ‘improving crop residue management’. Although the biochar/climate coalition is dominant at the international level, it is far less prominent in Brazil. Nationally, it is particularly the discourses of ‘improvement of soil fertility’ and ‘improving crop residue management’ which have prompted actors’ relationships and practices. However, the biochar/technology discourse has not (yet) been formally institutionalized in
Hunger, Theresa; Schnell-Inderst, Petra; Sahakyan, Narine; Siebert, Uwe
External experts can be consulted at different stages of an HTA. When using vague information sources, it is particularly important to plan, analyze, and report the information processing in a standardized and transparent way. Our objective was to search and analyze recommendations regarding where and how to include expert data in HTA. We performed a systematic database search and screened the Internet pages of seventy-seven HTA organizations for guidelines, recommendations, and methods papers that address the inclusion of experts in HTA. Relevant documents were downloaded, and information was extracted in a standard form. Results were merged in tables and narrative evidence synthesis. From twenty-two HTA organizations, we included forty-two documents that consider the use of expert opinion in HTA. Nearly all documents mention experts in the step of preparation of the evidence report. Six documents address their role for priority setting of topics, fifteen for scoping, twelve for the appraisal of evidence and results, another twelve documents mention experts when considering the dissemination of HTA results. During the assessment step, experts are most often asked to amend the literature search or to provide expertise for special data analyses. Another issue for external experts is to appraise the HTA results and refer them back to a clinical and social context. Little is reported on methods of expert elicitation when their input substitutes study data. Despite existing recommendations on the use of expert opinion in HTA, common standards for elicitation are scarce in HTA guidelines.
Truong, Phuong N.; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.; Gosling, John Paul
The variogram is the keystone of geostatistics. Estimation of the variogram is deficient and difficult when there are no or too few observations available due to budget constraints or physical and temporal obstacles. In such cases, expert knowledge can be an important source of information. Expert knowledge can also fulfil the increasing demand for an a priori variogram in Bayesian geostatistics and spatial sampling optimization. Formal expert elicitation provides a sound scientific basis to reliably and consistently extract knowledge from experts. In this study, we aimed at applying existing statistical expert elicitation techniques to extract the variogram of a regionalized variable that is assumed to have either a multivariate normal or lognormal spatial probability distribution from expert knowledge. To achieve this, we developed an elicitation protocol and implemented it as a web-based tool to facilitate the elicitation of beliefs from multiple experts. Our protocol has two main rounds: elicitation of the marginal probability distribution and elicitation of the variogram. The web-based tool has three main components: a web interface for expert elicitation and feedback; a component for statistical computation and mathematical pooling of multiple experts' knowledge; and a database management component. Results from a test case study show that the protocol is adequate and that the online elicitation tool functions satisfactorily. The web-based tool is free to use and supports scientists to conveniently elicit the variogram of spatial random variables from experts. The source code is available from the journal FTP site under the GNU General Public License.
An expert system prototype has been developed to support system analysis activities at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for waste management tasks. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. The concept under which the expert system has been designed is integration of knowledge. There are many sources of knowledge (data bases, text files, simulation programs, etc.) that an expert would regularly consult in order to solve a problem of liquid waste management. The expert would normally know how to extract the information from these different sources of knowledge. The general scope of this project would be to include as much pertinent information as possible within the boundaries of the expert system. As a result, the user, who may not be an expert in every aspect of liquid waste management, may be able to apply the content of the information to a specific waste problem. This paper gives the methodological steps to develop the expert system under this general framework
A broad participation by stakeholders and an extensive reliance on expert advice are often seen as preconditions for a legitimate and successfully implemented renewable energy policy. However, we have lacked systematic data for testing this argument. This article's contribution is to examine the actors who take part in the making of Swedish energy policy with the help of data on the composition of various committees of inquiry over the last twenty years (1988-2009). Swedish renewable energy policy is often characterised with words like 'pioneering' and 'forerunner', suggesting that the policy-making process in this area engages many different experts and stakeholders. Our data give only some support to this argument. Results point to a noteworthy predominance of politicians, civil servants, and representatives of state agencies within the policy-process. Producers of uranium and fossils based energy have been engaged more often than producers of renewable energy. Experts have played a prominent role, but this is mostly due to the participation of expert bureaucrats rather than of scientists. The study suggests that a better understanding of the making of energy policy, both in Sweden and elsewhere, requires greater attention to the networks and role of various state employees.
Hagerman, Shannon M; Satterfield, Terre
Recent research indicates increasing openness among conservation experts toward a set of previously controversial proposals for biodiversity protection. These include actions such as assisted migration, and the application of climate-change-informed triage principles for decision-making (e.g., forgoing attention to target species deemed no longer viable). Little is known however, about the levels of expert agreement across different conservation adaptation actions, or the preferences that may come to shape policy recommendations. In this paper, we report findings from a web-based survey of biodiversity experts that assessed: (1) perceived risks of climate change (and other drivers) to biodiversity, (2) relative importance of different conservation goals, (3) levels of agreement/disagreement with the potential necessity of unconventional-taboo actions and approaches including affective evaluations of these, (4) preferences regarding the most important adaptation action for biodiversity, and (5) perceived barriers and strategic considerations regarding implementing adaptation initiatives. We found widespread agreement with a set of previously contentious approaches and actions, including the need for frameworks for prioritization and decision-making that take expected losses and emerging novel ecosystems into consideration. Simultaneously, this survey found enduring preferences for conventional actions (such as protected areas) as the most important policy action, and negative affective responses toward more interventionist proposals. We argue that expert views are converging on agreement across a set of taboo components in ways that differ from earlier published positions, and that these views are tempered by preferences for existing conventional actions and discomfort toward interventionist options. We discuss these findings in the context of anticipating some of the likely contours of future conservation debates. Lastly, we underscore the critical need for
Ramsey, J. E., Jr.
Three expert systems (ATEOPS, ATEFEXPERS, and ATEFATLAS), which were created to direct automatic test equipment (ATE), are reviewed. The purpose of the project was to develop an expert system to troubleshoot the converter-programmer power supply card for the F-15 aircraft and have that expert system direct the automatic test equipment. Each expert system uses a different knowledge base or inference engine, basing the testing on the circuit schematic, test requirements document, or ATLAS code. Implementing generalized modules allows the expert systems to be used for any different unit under test. Using converted ATLAS to LISP code allows the expert system to direct any ATE using ATLAS. The constraint propagated frame system allows for the expansion of control by creating the ATLAS code, checking the code for good software engineering techniques, directing the ATE, and changing the test sequence as needed (planning).
Cain, D.G.; Schmidt, F.
One of the primary goals of the application of mathematical methods and computational techniques in reactor physics is the effective and accurate solution of the neutron diffusion equation under various conditions. To reach this goal still requires much skill, experience, knowledge and imagination as can be seen from various contributions at this and other conferences. Experts are necessary. Will expert systems replace them. We shall discuss this question by describing the basic principles of problem solving by expert systems as compared to problem solving by mathematical and computational methods. From this we shall identify areas of possible applications of the new techniques in nuclear energy and develop some thoughts on present limitations. As a result we conclude that expert systems will not be able to replace experts as long as the experts use the systems to improve their own expertise
The general growth of expert, knowledge-based (KB) or rule based systems will significantly increase in the next three to five years. Improvements in computer hardware (speed, reduced size, power) and software (rule based, data based, user interfaces) in recent years are providing the foundations for the growth of expert systems. A byproduct of this growth will undoubtedly be the application of expert systems to various safeguards problems. Characteristics of these expert systems will involve 1) multiple rules governing an outcome, 2) confidence factors on individual variables and rule sets, 3) priority, cost, and risk based rule sets, and 4) the reasoning behind the advice or decision given by the expert system. This paper presents characteristics, structures, and examples of simple rule based systems. Potential application areas for these expert systems may include training, operations, management, designs, evaluations, and specific hardware operation
Full Text Available Since the past half century, expert testimony has played an increasingly important role in Chinese litigation. As the amount of expert testimony has grown, the issues about its admissibility and scientific foundation related to evidence are becoming to be questioned commonly. Since eighteenth central committee (China adopted the decision of the Central Committee of China on several important issues in promoting the legal system, the evidence was redefined to become the predominance in the whole proceeding. This article reviews the expert knowledge implicit in the opinions. It argues that the expert opinions ask judges to be aware of the role of communicationg between participants. Expert opinion is not only gained from laboratory, but also socially constructed in the rational expression and communication, which requir us think logically in terms of legal perceptions of science and expert knowledge in the empirical world.
Dam Otten, Nina; Rousing, Tine; Forkman, Björn
welfare criteria: Hunger, Thirst, Resting comfort, Ease of movement, Injuries, Disease, Human-animal bond and Emotional state. A total of 54 dairy cattle experts (RES = 15%, CONS = 22%, VET = 35%, AWC = 28%) and 34 swine experts (RES = 24%, CONS = 35%, AWC = 41%) participated. Between—and within......The present study seeks to investigate the influence of expert affiliation in the weighing procedures within animal welfare assessments. Experts are often gathered with different backgrounds with differing approaches to animal welfare posing a potential pitfall if affiliation groups...... are not balanced in numbers of experts. At two time points (2012 and 2016), dairy cattle and swine experts from four different stakeholder groups, namely researchers (RES), production advisors (CONS), practicing veterinarians (VET) and animal welfare control officers (AWC) were asked to weigh eight different...
Quellec, Gwénolé; Lamard, Mathieu; Cochener, Béatrice; Droueche, Zakarya; Lay, Bruno; Chabouis, Agnès; Roux, Christian; Cazuguel, Guy
In recent years, many image analysis algorithms have been presented to assist Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) screening. The goal was usually to detect healthy examination records automatically, in order to reduce the number of records that should be analyzed by retinal experts. In this paper, a novel application is presented: these algorithms are used to 1) discover image characteristics that sometimes cause an expert to disagree with his/her peers and 2) warn the expert whenever these characteristics are detected in an examination record. In a DR screening program, each examination record is only analyzed by one expert, therefore analyzing disagreements among experts is challenging. A statistical framework, based on Parzen-windowing and the Patrick-Fischer distance, is presented to solve this problem. Disagreements among eleven experts from the Ophdiat screening program were analyzed, using an archive of 25,702 examination records.
Debarnot, Ursula; Sperduti, Marco; Di Rienzo, Franck; Guillot, Aymeric
Skill learning is the improvement in perceptual, cognitive, or motor performance following practice. Expert performance levels can be achieved with well-organized knowledge, using sophisticated and specific mental representations and cognitive processing, applying automatic sequences quickly and efficiently, being able to deal with large amounts of information, and many other challenging task demands and situations that otherwise paralyze the performance of novices. The neural reorganizations that occur with expertise reflect the optimization of the neurocognitive resources to deal with the complex computational load needed to achieve peak performance. As such, capitalizing on neuronal plasticity, brain modifications take place over time-practice and during the consolidation process. One major challenge is to investigate the neural substrates and cognitive mechanisms engaged in expertise, and to define "expertise" from its neural and cognitive underpinnings. Recent insights showed that many brain structures are recruited during task performance, but only activity in regions related to domain-specific knowledge distinguishes experts from novices. The present review focuses on three expertise domains placed across a motor to mental gradient of skill learning: sequential motor skill, mental simulation of the movement (motor imagery), and meditation as a paradigmatic example of "pure" mental training. We first describe results on each specific domain from the initial skill acquisition to expert performance, including recent results on the corresponding underlying neural mechanisms. We then discuss differences and similarities between these domains with the aim to identify the highlights of the neurocognitive processes underpinning expertise, and conclude with suggestions for future research.
Das, Kamalika; Avrekh, Ilya; Matthews, Bryan; Sharma, Manali; Oza, Nikunj
Often the manual review of large data sets, either for purposes of labeling unlabeled instances or for classifying meaningful results from uninteresting (but statistically significant) ones is extremely resource intensive, especially in terms of subject matter expert (SME) time. Use of active learning has been shown to diminish this review time significantly. However, since active learning is an iterative process of learning a classifier based on a small number of SME-provided labels at each iteration, the lack of an enabling tool can hinder the process of adoption of these technologies in real-life, in spite of their labor-saving potential. In this demo we present ASK-the-Expert, an interactive tool that allows SMEs to review instances from a data set and provide labels within a single framework. ASK-the-Expert is powered by an active learning algorithm for training a classifier in the backend. We demonstrate this system in the context of an aviation safety application, but the tool can be adopted to work as a simple review and labeling tool as well, without the use of active learning.
Johnson, R.R.; Canales, T.; Lager, D.
This paper describes a system that automates neutral beam source conditioning. The system achieves this with artificial intelligence techniques by encoding the behavior of several experts as a set of if-then rules in an expert system. One of the functions of the expert system is to control an adaptive controller that, in turn, controls the neutral beam source. The architecture of the system is presented followed by a description of its performance
Creider, R.D.; Sundar Singh, P.S. [Texas A& M Univ., Commerce, TX (United States)
Nasal congestion is a common problem for many people. It is a symptom of chronic sinusitis and also a characteristic of allergic rhinitis. Individuals frequently confuse sinusitis and allergic rhinitis. The expert system described below will diagnose the problem to be either rhinitis or sinusitis. In this paper we describe the expert system, the need for such an expert system and the process of developing the system.
López, Eva M; García, Miriam; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L
As soil is a natural resource not always renewable, the risk characterization of contaminated soils is an issue of great interest. Artificial Intelligence (AI), based on Decision Support Systems (DSSs), has been developed for a wide range of applications in contaminated soil management. Decision trees have already shown to be easy to interpret and able to treat large scale applications. Fuzzy logic gives an improvement in the perturbations and the variance of the training data, due to the elasticity of fuzzy set formalism. In this study, we have developed a classificatory tool applied to characterize contaminated soil in function of human and environmental risks. Knowledge engineering for constructing the Soil Risk Characterization Decision Support System (SRC-DSS) involves three stages: knowledge acquisition, conceptual design and system implementation. A total of 26 parameters were divided into three groups to facilitate the configuration of the expert system: source attributes, transfer vector attributes, and local properties. Sixteen case studies were evaluated with the SRC-DSS. In comparison with other techniques, the results of the current study have shown that SRC-DDS is an excellent tool to classify and characterize soils according to the associated risk.
In all French enterprises producing or using ionizing radiations, a person is in charge of the protection of workers against radiations: the expert in radiation protection (PCR). The education and training of this profession has been recently reformed, and its status will evolve by 2018 with a transposition of a European directive. While indicating the six main missions of PCRs (risk assessment, definition of protection measures, zoning optimisation, training of exposed workers, dosimetry follow-up, periodic controls), this article comments the current professional profile of PCRs who can be technicians, engineers as well as researchers. It also outlines aspects of the reform which do not satisfy PCRs' needs. A second article reports how PCRs perceive their mission on a daily basis, which obstacles they face, how they are organised to communicate between them and not to be isolated (a map of PCR regional networks is provided with indications of the number of members and of the main actions), and how the IRSN helps them. A third article evokes the content of a new standard (NF C 15-160) which defines the requirements for X ray generating installations, and the related theoretical and practical training proposed by the IRSN
Under the Clean Coal Technology Program (Clean Coal Round 1), the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) are funding the development and demonstration of a computer program called the Coal Quality Expert (CQE trademark). When finished, the CQE will be a comprehensive PC-based program which can be used to evaluate several potential coal cleaning, blending, and switching options to reduce power plant emissions while minimizing generation costs. The CQE will be flxible in nature and capable of evaluating various qualities of coal, available transportation options, performance issues, and alternative emissions control strategies. This allows the CQE to determine the most cost-effective coal and the least expensive emissions control strategy for a given plant. To accomplish this, the CQE will be composed of technical models to evaluate performance issues; environmental models to evaluate environmental and regulatory issues; and cost estimating models to predict costs for installations of new and retrofit coal cleaning processes, power production equipment, and emissions control systems as well as other production costs such as consumables (fuel, scrubber additive, etc.), waste disposal, operating and maintenance, and replacement energy costs. These technical, environmental, and economic models as well as a graphical user interface will be developed for the CQE. And, in addition, to take advantage of already existing capability, the CQE will rely on seamless integration of already proven and extensively used computer programs such as the EPRI Coal Quality Information Systems, Coal Quality Impact Model (CQIM trademark), and NO x Pert. 2 figs
Ramchandani, Mohan; Nageshwar Reddy, D; Nabi, Zaheer; Chouhan, Radhika; Bapaye, Amol; Bhatia, Shobhna; Mehta, Nilay; Dhawan, Pankaj; Chaudhary, Adarsh; Ghoshal, Uday; Philip, Mathew; Neuhaus, Horst; Deviere, Jacques; Inoue, Haruhiro
Achalasia cardia (AC) is a frequently encountered motility disorder of the esophagus resulting from an irreversible degeneration of neurons. Treatment modalities are palliative in nature and there is no curative treatment available for AC as of now. Significant advancements have been made in the management of AC over last decade. The introduction of high resolution manometry (HRM) and per-oral endoscopic myotomy (POEM) have strengthened the diagnostic and therapeutic armamentarium of AC. HRM allows for the characterization of the type of achalasia which in turn has important therapeutic implications. The endoscopic management of AC has been reinforced with the introduction of POEM which has been found to be highly effective and safe in palliating the symptoms in short to mid-term follow-up studies. POEM is less invasive than Heller's myotomy and provides the endoscopist with the opportunity of adjusting the length and orientation of esophageal myotomy according to the type of AC. The management of achalasia needs to be tailored for each patient and the role of pneumatic balloon dilatation, POEM or Heller's myotomy needs to be revisited. In this review, we discuss the important aspects of diagnosis as well as management of AC. The statements presented in the manuscript reflect the cumulative efforts of an expert consensus group. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available Abstract Dermatology is a one of major session of medicine that concerned with the diagnosis and treatment of skin diseases. Skin diseases are the most common form of disease in humans. Recently many of researchers have advocated and developed the imaging of human vision or in the loop approach to visual object recognition. This research paper presents a development of a skin diseases diagnosis system which allows user to identify diseases of the human skin and to provide advises or medical treatments in a very short time period. For this purpose user will have to upload an image of skin disease to our system and answer questions based on their skin condition or symptoms. It will be used to detect diseases of the skin and offer a treatment recommendation. This system uses technologies such as image processing and data mining for the diagnosis of the disease of the skin. The image of skin disease is taken and it must be subjected to various preprocessing for noise eliminating and enhancement of the image. This image is immediately segmentation of images using threshold values. Finally data mining techniques are used to identify the skin disease and to suggest medical treatments or advice for users. This expert system exhibits disease identification accuracy of 85 for Eczema 95 for Impetigo and 85 for Melanoma.
On 18 December 2004, the President of the Swiss Electro-technical Committee, Martin Reichle (left), presented the award to Helmut Schönbacher. Helmut Schönbacher, of the Safety Commission at CERN, has received, the "1906 Award" of the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) for his standardisation work on the influence of ionizing radiation on insulating materials. From 1986 until 2004, Schönbacher was leader of a working group on radiation composed of internationally recognised experts. It edited standards of the IEC 60544 series on the determination of the effects of ionizing radiation on electrical insulating materials. The working group also edited three IEC Technical Reports on the determination of long-term radiation ageing in polymers. This standardisation work and long-term experience from CERN on the radiation ageing of materials also contributed to research coordination programmes of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). From 1968 until 1988, Schönbacher was a member of the Rad...
Pack, R.W.; Lazar, P.M.; Schmidt, R.V.; Gaddy, C.D.
The project described in this paper explored the use of expert systems for plant operations training and assistance. Three computer technologies were reviewed: computer-aided instruction, expert systems, and expert training systems (ETS). The technology of CAI has been developed since the early 1960s, and a wide range of applications are available commercially today. Expert systems have been developed primarily as job performance aids, and the number of commercial applications is increasing. A fully developed ETS has models of the trainer and trainee, in addition to a knowledge base
This paper reports on expert systems which have reached a level of maturity where they offer considerable benefits for the nuclear utility industry. The ability of expert systems to enhance expertise makes them an important tool for the nuclear utility industry in the areas of engineering, operations and maintenance. Benefits of expert system applications include comprehensive and consistent reasoning, reduction of time required for activities, retention of human expertise and ability to utilize multiple experts knowledge for an activity. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has been performing four basic activities to help the nuclear industry take advantage of this expert system technology. The first is the development of expert system building tools which are tailored to nuclear utility industry applications. The second is the development of expert system applications. The third is work in developing a methodology for verification and validation of expert systems. The last is technology transfer activities to help the nuclear utility industry benefit from expert systems. The purpose of this paper is to describe the EPRI activities
Edwards, S. J.; Caglayan, A. K.
Methods for building real-time onboard expert systems were investigated, and the use of expert systems technology was demonstrated in improving the performance of current real-time onboard monitoring and fault diagnosis applications. The potential applications of the proposed research include an expert system environment allowing the integration of expert systems into conventional time-critical application solutions, a grammar for describing the discrete event behavior of monitoring and fault diagnosis systems, and their applications to new real-time hardware fault diagnosis and monitoring systems for aircraft.
Hora, Stephen; Jensen, Mikael
The Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company have jointly carried out a project on expert panel elicitation on the issue of glacial induced Swedish earthquakes. Following a broad nomination procedure, 5 experts were chosen by a selection committee of 4 professors within Earth sciences disciplines. The 5 experts presented judgments about the frequency of earthquakes greater the magnitude 6 within 10 km for two Swedish sites, Oskarshamn and Forsmark, in connection with a glaciation cycle. The experts' median value vas 0,1 earthquakes for one glaciation cycle
Schwarz, A F
Handbook of VLSI Chip Design and Expert Systems provides information pertinent to the fundamental aspects of expert systems, which provides a knowledge-based approach to problem solving. This book discusses the use of expert systems in every possible subtask of VLSI chip design as well as in the interrelations between the subtasks.Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of design automation, which can be identified as Computer-Aided Design of Circuits and Systems (CADCAS). This text then presents the progress in artificial intelligence, with emphasis on expert systems.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper introduces a novel reasoning methodology, in combination with appropriate models and measurements (data) to perform accurately and expeditiously expert...
Matthews, L.J.; Burggraf, L.K.; Reece, W.J.
A study was conducted to evaluate how workers predict manufacturing production potentials given positively and negatively framed information. Findings indicate the existence of a bias toward positive information and suggest that this bias may be reduced with experience but is never the less maintained. Experts err in the same way non experts do in differentially processing negative and positive information. Additionally, both experts and non experts tend to overestimate production potentials in a positive direction. The authors propose that these biases should be addressed with further research including cross domain analyses and consideration in training, workplace design, and human performance modeling
Hora, Stephen; Jensen, Mikael (eds.)
The Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company have jointly carried out a project on expert panel elicitation on the issue of glacial induced Swedish earthquakes. Following a broad nomination procedure, 5 experts were chosen by a selection committee of 4 professors within Earth sciences disciplines. The 5 experts presented judgments about the frequency of earthquakes greater the magnitude 6 within 10 km for two Swedish sites, Oskarshamn and Forsmark, in connection with a glaciation cycle. The experts' median value vas 0,1 earthquakes for one glaciation cycle.
Full Text Available Expert systems can be defined as computer programs, whose main task is to simulate a human expert, usually in a narrow field of expertise. Possible applications of modern information technology are very extensive, ranging from medicine, geology and technology to applications in the field of economic and financial decision support. The purpose of this paper is to present the practical application of an expert system that supports the process of managing the production of yachts and has a high suitability for use in this application. Using the expert system described in the paper reduces the time during the design and production preparation process.
Rogers, Anne; Bury, Michael; Kennedy, Anne
Policymakers have associated the increasing prevalence and incidence of chronic illness with the threat of unsustainable demands for medical services, requiring deployment of effective demand-management strategies. In this article, the authors consider the rise in policy interest in self-management and examine the metaphors, discourse, official statements, policy developments, and goals shaping the field of chronic illness, especially surrounding the promotion and uptake of self-skills training in England's Expert Patients Programme (EPP). They discuss the shift in relationship between individuals and the state since the 1960s and 1970s; the rise in importance of self-management in relation to an aging population; the evidence and rhetoric associated with policy development; and the relationship of self-care to the notion of the "responsible patient," as seen in policy implementation and EPP course promotion. The authors also draw on qualitative research to examine the transmission of ideology and rhetoric in self-skills training. Self-management policies are part of a shift from patient rights to individual responsibilities, a shift that may be less persuasive than its supporters imagine.
Reed, J; Mathews, C; Kirk, B; Lynch, P; Doyle, J; Meek, E; Pepper, S; Metcalf, R
With many safeguards experts in the United States at or near retirement age, and with the growing and evolving mission of international safeguards, attracting and educating a new generation of safeguards experts is an important element of maintaining a credible and capable international safeguards system. The United States National Laboratories, with their rich experience in addressing the technical and policy challenges of international safeguards, are an important resource for attracting, educating, and training future safeguards experts. This presentation highlights some of the safeguards education and professional development activities underway at the National Laboratories. These include university outreach, summer courses, internships, mid-career transition, knowledge retention, and other projects. The presentation concludes with thoughts on the challenge of interdisciplinary education and the recruitment of individuals with the right balance of skills and backgrounds are recruited to meet tomorrow's needs.
There is a clear association between antibiotic use and resistance both on individual and population levels. In the European Union, countries with large antibiotic consumption have higher resistance rates. Antibiotic resistance leads to failed treatments, prolonged hospitalisations, increased costs and deaths. With few new antibiotics in the Research & Development pipeline, prudent antibiotic use is the only option to delay the development of resistance. Antibiotic policy consists of prescrib...
Lehr, William H.; Pupillo, Lorenzo Maria
The Internet is now widely regarded as essential infrastructure for our global economy and society. It is in our homes and businesses. We use it to communicate and socialize, for research, and as a platform for E-commerce. In the late 1990s, much was predicted about what the Internet has become at present; but now, we have actual experience living with the Internet as a critical component of our everyday lives. Although the Internet has already had profound effects, there is much we have yet to realize. The present volume represents a third installment in a collaborative effort to highlight the all-encompassing, multidisciplinary implications of the Internet for public policy. The first installment was conceived in 1998, when we initiated plans to organize an international conference among academic, industry, and government officials to discuss the growing policy agenda posed by the Internet. The conference was hosted by the European Commission in Brussels in 1999 and brought together a diverse mix of perspectives on what the pressing policy issues would be confronting the Internet. All of the concerns identified remain with us today, including how to address the Digital Divide, how to modify intellectual property laws to accommodate the new realities of the Internet, what to do about Internet governance and name-space management, and how to evolve broadcast and telecommunications regulatory frameworks for a converged world.
Ohmae, K; Hewlett, S A; Austin, J E; Crozier, M
The World Leadership Survey, which began a worldwide dialogue on a set of important issues facing managers in the 1990s, continues with commentaries from four recognized experts, each of whom addresses the survey results from a different perspective. Kenichi Ohmae, chairman of McKinsey and Company in Tokyo, addresses "The Perils of Protectionism." Ohmae argues that the old definitions of national boundaries and corporate interests reflect obsolete economic theories. The real test of national well-being, Ohmae suggests, should be the economic welfare of a nation's citizens. Sylvia Ann Hewlett, economist and former director of the Economic Policy Council in New York, analyzes the survey in terms of "The Human Resource Deficit." According to Hewlett, four principles should guide corporate strategies in the 1990s: human resource development should move up the scale of corporate priorities; a family-friendly workplace will attract and keep talented workers; companies will take limited direct responsibility for training and education; the private sector will promote public investment in social issues. James E. Austin, the Richard P. Chapman Professor of Business at the Harvard Business School, writes about "The Developing-Country Difference." In developing countries, Austin observes, managers display attitudes and follow practices that diverge from those in developed nations. In particular, the role of government, investments in education and technology, and environmental concerns set these nations apart. Michel Crozier, president of the Centre de Sociologie des Organisations in Paris, writes about "The Changing Organization." In the 1990s, Crozier argues, managers need to break from old management theories and practice, questioning hierarchy, control, distance, access to information-the whole managerial system.
The papers assembled in this special issue shed light on the question of the interrelation between democracy and policy evaluation by discussing research on the use of evaluations in democratic processes. The collection makes a case for a stronger presence of evaluation in democracy beyond expert utilization. Parliamentarians prove to be more aquainted with evaluations than expected and the inclusion of evaluations in policy arguments increases the deliberative quality of democratic campaigns. In sum, evaluation and democracy turn out to be well compatible after all. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Presents cutting-edge research, practice, and policy in electronic communications, commerce, and cultureIncludes contributions from leading researchers and industry expertsAddresses such hot-button issues as privacy issues, universal access, cybercrime, intellectual property rights, on-line content, and peer-to-peer networksApplies perspectives from economics, political science, law, business, and communicationsFully updated and revised paperback edition will appeal to practitioners, policymakers, and students
This paper compares four current theories of expertise with respect to chess players' memory: Chase and Simon's chunking theory, Holding's SEEK theory, Ericsson and Kintsch's long-term working memory theory, and Gobet and Simon's template theory (Chase, W.G., Simon, H.A., 1973a. Perception in chess. Cognitive Psychology 4, 55-81; Holding, D.H., 1985. The Psychology of Chess Skill. Erlbaum, Hillsdale, NJ; Ericsson, K.A., Kintsch, W., 1995. Long-term working memory. Psychological Review 102, 211-245; Gobet, F., Simon, H.A., 1996b. Templates in chess memory: a mechanism for recalling several boards. Cognitive Psychology 31, 1-40). The empirical areas showing the largest discriminative power include recall of random and distorted positions, recall with very short presentation times, and interference studies. Contrary to recurrent criticisms in the literature, it is shown that the chunking theory is consistent with most of the data. However, the best performance in accounting for the empirical evidence is obtained by the template theory. The theory, which unifies low-level aspects of cognition, such as chunks, with high-level aspects, such as schematic knowledge and planning, proposes that chunks are accessed through a discrimination net, where simple perceptual features are tested, and that they can evolve into more complex data structures (templates) specific to classes of positions. Implications for the study of expertise in general include the need for detailed process models of expert behavior and the need to use empirical data spanning the traditional boundaries of perception, memory, and problem solving.
Full Text Available Background . Home care (HC is placed between the health and social welfare systems, and the clients of HC mostly need health services. Along with other providers, family doctors (FDs are usually involved in the provision of care. Objectives. This paper aims to describe and compare the involvement of HC providers to elderly and disabled persons in Poland and Estonia. Material and methods . This study is part of the international project EURHOMA P (Mapping Professional Home Care in Europe. Data was collected in 2008–2010. Experts from different areas of health and social care were queried by using a questionnaire containing structured case narratives, which were hypothetical descriptions of the situations of elderly or disabled persons living at home and in need of care. Results. There are a number of HC services, e.g. nursing, medical and social, available in both countries. The application for HC is mostly made by the patient or a close family member; the point of entry to HC can differ and depends on the client’s primary problem. FDs, together with social workers, play an important role in the provision of HC services in both countries. However, due to a shortage of round-the-clock professional services at a client’s home, families are also expected to play a large role in providing HC . Conclusions . Health care professionals, mainly those working in primary health care, play a remarkable role in access to and provision of HC services. Nevertheless, responsibility for 24-hour care lies, to a large extent, with the client’s immediate family. This situation seems to be typical in Eastern European countries.
Kretz, Donald R.; Krawczyk, Daniel C.
The use of analogy is an important component of human cognition. The type of analogy we produce and communicate depends heavily on a number of factors, such as the setting, the level of domain expertise present, and the speaker's goal or intent. In this observational study, we recorded economics experts during scientific discussion and examined the categorical distance and structural depth of the analogies they produced. We also sought to characterize the purpose of the analogies that were generated. Our results supported previous conclusions about the infrequency of superficial similarity in subject-generated analogs, but also showed that distance and depth characteristics were more evenly balanced than in previous observational studies. This finding was likely due to the nature of the goals of the participants, as well as the broader nature of their expertise. An analysis of analogical purpose indicated that the generation of concrete source examples of more general target concepts was most prevalent. We also noted frequent instances of analogies intended to form visual images of source concepts. Other common purposes for analogies were the addition of colorful speech, inclusion (i.e., subsumption) of a target into a source concept, or differentiation between source and target concepts. We found no association between depth and either of the other two characteristics, but our findings suggest a relationship between purpose and distance; i.e., that visual imagery typically entailed an outside-domain source whereas exemplification was most frequently accomplished using within-domain analogies. Overall, we observed a rich and diverse set of spontaneously produced analogical comparisons. The high degree of expertise within the observed group along with the richly comparative nature of the economics discipline likely contributed to this analogical abundance. PMID:25505437
Donald R Kretz
Full Text Available The use of analogy is an important component of human cognition. The type of analogy we produce and communicate depends heavily on a number of factors, such as the setting, the level of domain expertise present, and the speaker’s goal or intent. In this observational study, we recorded economics experts during scientific discussion and examined the categorical distance and structural depth of the analogies they produced. We also sought to characterize the purpose of the analogies that were generated. Our results supported previous conclusions about the infrequency of superficial similarity in subject-generated analogs, but also showed that distance and depth characteristics were more evenly balanced than in previous observational studies. This finding was likely due to the nature of the goals of the participants, as well as the broader nature of their expertise. An analysis of analogical purpose indicated that the generation of concrete source examples of more general target concepts was most prevalent. We also noted frequent instances of analogies intended to form visual images of source concepts. Other common purposes for analogies were the addition of colorful speech, inclusion (i.e., subsumption of a target into a source concept, or differentiation between source and target concepts. We found no association between depth and either of the other two characteristics, but our findings suggest a relationship between purpose and distance; i.e., that visual imagery typically entailed an outside-domain source whereas exemplification was most frequently accomplished using within-domain analogies. Overall, we observed a rich and diverse set of spontaneously produced analogical comparisons. The high degree of expertise within the observed group along with the richly comparative nature of the economics discipline likely contributed to this analogical abundance.
Menec, Verena; Bell, Sheri; Novek, Sheila; Minnigaleeva, Gulnara A; Morales, Ernesto; Ouma, Titus; Parodi, Jose F; Winterton, Rachel
With the growing interest worldwide in making communities more age-friendly, it is becoming increasingly important to understand the factors that help or hinder communities in attaining this goal. In this article, we focus on rural and remote communities and present perspectives of 42 experts in the areas of aging, rural and remote issues, and policy who participated in a consensus conference on age-friendly rural and remote communities. Discussions highlighted that strengths in rural and remote communities, such as easy access to local leaders and existing partnerships, can help to further age-friendly goals; however, addressing major challenges, such as lack of infrastructure and limited availability of social and health services, requires regional or national government buy-in and funding opportunities. Age-friendly work in rural and remote communities is, therefore, ideally embedded in larger age-friendly initiatives and supported by regional or national policies, programs, and funding sources.
Full Text Available Background The aim of newborn bloodspot screening (NBS is to identify rare genetic and non-genetic conditions in children soon after birth in order to commence therapies that prevent the development of progressive, serious, and irreversible disabilities. Universal NBS programmes have been implemented in most countries, with minor adaptations to target conditions most relevant to the local healthcare environment. Aims In this article, we describe the initiatives of international and Australian governments to develop policies to address the expansion of NBS in their healthcare systems. Methods We have reviewed published public policies and literature to formulate recommendations based on clinical, social, legal, and ethical principles to inform a national governance and policy framework for Australia. Results Australian policy makers have been slow to develop a coordinated plan. While the experience from other governments can guide our national policy, there are specific areas that require further consideration by Australian health experts. Key reforms involve the separation of policy and operational activities, multidisciplinary decision-making and oversight by the Australian Health Ministers’ Advisory Council for policy direction. Conclusion A formal national policy framework will guide the coordination of NBS services that can adapt to the needs of Australian children and families.
Full Text Available Skill learning is the improvement in perceptual, cognitive, or motor performance following practice. Expert performance levels can be achieved with well-organized knowledge, using sophisticated and specific mental representations and cognitive processing, applying automatic sequences quickly and efficiently, being able to deal with large amounts of information, and many other challenging task demands and situations that otherwise paralyze the performance of novices. The neural reorganizations that occur with expertise reflect the optimization of the neurocognitive resources to deal with the complex computational load needed to achieve peak performance. As such, capitalizing on neuronal plasticity, brain modifications take place over time-practice and during the consolidation process. One major challenge is to investigate the neural substrates and cognitive mechanisms engaged in expertise, and to define expertise from its neural and cognitive underpinnings. Recent insights showed that many brain structures are recruited during task performance, but only activity in regions related to domain-specific knowledge distinguishes experts from novices. The present review focuses on three expertise domains placed across a motor to mental gradient of skill learning: sequential motor skill, mental simulation of the movement (motor imagery, and meditation as a paradigmatic example of pure mental training. We first describe results on each specific domain from the initial skill acquisition to the achieving of expert performance, including recent results on the corresponding underlying neural mechanisms. We then discuss differences and similarities between these domains with the aim to identify the highlights of the neurocognitive processes underpinning expertise, and conclude with suggestions for future research.
Currently, the expert system uses wiki technology, as this allows a high level of interaction between user and administrator. The expert system includes embedded links to photographs and additional information. It allows easy updating of the knowledge base. An additional booklet was also developed, since access to ...
Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Legerstee (Rianne)
textabstractWe study the performance of SKU-level sales forecasts which linearly combine statistical model forecasts and expert forecasts. Using a large and unique database containing model forecasts for monthly sales of various pharmaceutical products and forecasts given by about fifty experts, we
Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.
Through two studies, this report seeks to identify the sources of correlation, or dependence, between experts' estimates. Expert estimates are relied upon as sources of data whenever experimental data is lacking, such as in risk analyses and reliability assessments. Correlation between experts is a problem in the elicitation and subsequent use of subjective estimates. Until now, there have been no data confirming sources of correlation, although the experts' background is commonly speculated to be one. Two different populations of experts were administered questions in their areas of expertise. Data on their professional backgrounds and means of solving the questions were elicited using techniques from educational psychology and ethnography. The results from both studies indicate that the way in which an expert solves the problem is the major source of correlation. The experts' background can not be shown to be an important source of correlation nor to influence his choice of method for problem solution. From these results, some recommendations are given for the elicitation and use of expert opinion
Expert systems is a rapidly emerging new application of computers to aid decision makers in solving problems. This report gives an overview of what expert systems are and of what use they may be to a transportation department. The focus of the applic...
Hürriyetoglu, Ali; Oostdijk, Nelleke; Basar, Erkan; van den Bosch, A.; Frasincar, F.; Ittoo, A.; Nguyen, L.; Metais, E.
We introduce Relevancer that processes a tweet set and enables generating an automatic classifier from it. Relevancer satisfies information needs of experts during significant events. Enabling experts to combine automatic procedures with expertise is the main contribution of our approach and the
This part of a book presents expert system techniques applicable to building design and construction, and it reports and evaluates on systems developed in thar domain.......This part of a book presents expert system techniques applicable to building design and construction, and it reports and evaluates on systems developed in thar domain....
Salekhova, Lailya; Nurgaliev, Albert; Zaripova, Rinata; Khakimullina, Nailya
This study reveals general didactic concepts of the Expert Systems (ES) development process in the educational area. The proof of concept is based on the example of teaching the 8th grade Algebra subject. The main contribution in this work is the implementation of innovative approaches in analysis and processing of data by expert system as well as…
Schoonen, R.; Vergeer, M.; Eiting, M.
This article reports on three studies about the reading reliability of lay and expert readers in rating three kinds of writing assignments. Readers had to rate the Con tent and Language Usage of students' writing performances. The studies show that expert readers are more reliable in rating Usage,
The paper further examines the paradigm shift that is currently unfolding globally in expert witnessing and testimony; while it offers suggestions on how Nigerian Valuers can improve on their performance in this increasingly popular area of their vocation. The author has drawn largely on his vast experience as expert witness ...
America's most highly qualified teachers are underrepresented in America's most challenging schools. Across the nation, only about 15% of America's expert teachers teach in high-poverty, underachieving schools. Most expert teachers teach in schools with fewer racial minority students, fewer students from low-income households, and fewer students…
Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.
Through two studies, this report seeks to identify the sources of correlation, or dependence, between experts' estimates. Expert estimates are relied upon as sources of data whenever experimental data is lacking, such as in risk analyses and reliability assessments. Correlation between experts is a problem in the elicitation and subsequent use of subjective estimates. Until now, there have been no data confirming sources of correlation, although the experts' background is commonly speculated to be one. Two different populations of experts were administered questions in their areas of expertise. Data on their professional backgrounds and means of solving the questions were elicited using techniques from educational psychology and ethnography. The results from both studies indicate that the way in which an expert solves the problem is the major source of correlation. The experts' background can not be shown to be an important source of correlation nor to influence his choice of method for problem solution. From these results, some recommendations are given for the elicitation and use of expert opinion.
Fedorov, Alexander; Levitskaya, Anastasia; Camarero, Emma
The article analyzes the results of the international experts' survey regarding the curriculum of media literacy education, which was administrated by the authors in September-October 2015. The expert panel includes specialists actively involved in the real process of media literacy education in schools, universities and other educational…
Review of K. Barclay, 'Love, Intimacy and Power' as part of a feature in which experts on Scottish History were asked to choose their book of the year.......Review of K. Barclay, 'Love, Intimacy and Power' as part of a feature in which experts on Scottish History were asked to choose their book of the year....
Atieno Okech, Jane E.; Rubel, Deborah
Evaluation of group work supervision literature suggests that description of expert group work supervisors' experiences could be useful for expanding existing group work supervision practices and models. This study provided a systematic exploration of the experiences of expert group work supervisors during the supervision process. Results indicate…
Williamson, Kellie; Cox, Rochelle
In this article we use a hybrid methodology to better understand the skilful performance of sports teams as an exemplar of distributed cognition. We highlight key differences between a team of individual experts (an aggregate system) and an expert team (an emergent system), and outline the kinds of shared characteristics likely to be found in an…
Cornelius, Edwin T.; And Others
Questions the observed correlation between job experts and naive raters using the Position Analysis Questionnaire (PAQ); and conducts a replication of the Smith and Hakel study (1979) with college students (N=39). Concluded that PAQ ratings from job experts and college students are not equivalent and therefore are not interchangeable. (LLL)
Kupershtein, Leonid M.; Martyniuk, Tatiana B.; Krencin, Myhail D.; Kozhemiako, Andriy V.; Bezsmertnyi, Yurii; Bezsmertna, Halyna; Kolimoldayev, Maksat; Smolarz, Andrzej; Weryńska-Bieniasz, RóŻa; Uvaysova, Svetlana
In the work the hybrid expert system for stroke diagnosis was presented. The base of expert system consists of neural network and production rules. This program can quickly and accurately set to the patient preliminary and final diagnoses, get examination and treatment plans, print data of patient, analyze statistics data and perform parameterized search for patients.
Howard, Dale C.
The paper examines implications of the application of computer expert systems in the field of education, particularly special education. The development of expert systems in general is reviewed as are its applications in education as intelligent tutoring systems and in special education in the areas of student classification, teacher education,…
Agricultural stories are routinely reported in daily newspapers in Nigeria. Few studies have however provided empirical evidence that experts were contacted for comments in reported agricultural stories. In this study, four major Nigerian daily newspapers were content analysed to determine if experts were contacted for ...
Full Text Available In this study, a expert system has been developed using Leonardo expert system package programming for screw operation, According to DIN standard norm. The designed program decide the most suitable screw type considering to material, cutting speed, working condition etc. This program also directs to user.
Kirk, Bernadette Lugue [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cain, Ronald A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Agreda, Carla L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
This report complements A Methodology for Succession Planning for Technical Experts (Ron Cain, Shaheen Dewji, Carla Agreda, Bernadette Kirk, July 2017), which describes a draft methodology for identifying and evaluating the loss of key technical skills at nuclear operations facilities. This report targets the methodology for identifying critical skills, and the methodology is tested through interviews with selected subject matter experts.
Full Text Available Due to the enormous volume of unstructured information available on the Web and inside organization, finding an answer to the knowledge need in a short time is difficult. For this reason, beside Search Engines which don’t consider users individual characteristics, Recommender systems were created which use user’s previous activities and other individual characteristics to help users find needed knowledge. Recommender systems usage is increasing every day. Expert finder systems also by introducing expert people instead of recommending information to users have provided this facility for users to ask their questions form experts. Having relation with experts not only causes information transition, but also with transferring experiences and inception causes knowledge transition. In this paper we used university professors academic resume as expert people profile and then proposed a new expert finding model that recommends experts to users query. We used Term Correlation Matrix, Vector Space Model and PageRank algorithm and proposed a new hybrid model which outperforms conventional methods. This model can be used in internet environment, organizations and universities that experts have resume dataset.
Savelsbergh, G.J.P.; van der Kamp, J.; Williams, A.M.; Ward, P.
A novel methodological approach is presented to examine the visual search behaviours employed by expert goalkeepers during simulated penalty kick situations in soccer. Expert soccer goalkeepers were classified as successful or unsuccessful based on their performance on a film-based test of
As part of SCK-CEN's social sciences and humanities programme, a reflection group on 'Expert Culture' was established. The objectives of the reflection group are: (1) to clarify the role of SCK-CEN experts; (2) to clarify the new role of expertise in the evolving context of risk society; (3) to confront external views and internal SCK-CEN experiences on expert culture; (4) to improve trust building of experts and credibility of SCK-CEN as a nuclear actor in society; (5) to develop a draft for a deontological code; (6) to integrate the approach in training on assertivity and communication; (7) to create an output for a topical day on the subject of expert culture. The programme, achievements and perspectives of the refection group are summarised.
Sadegholvad, Sanaz; Yeatman, Heather; Omidvar, Nasrin; Parrish, Anne-Maree; Worsley, Anthony
This study aimed to investigate food experts' views on important nutrition and food systems knowledge issues for education purposes at schools in Iran. In 2012, semi-structured, face-to-face or telephone interviews were conducted with twenty-eight acknowledged Iranian experts in food and nutrition fields. Participants were selected from four major provinces in Iran (Tehran, Isfahan, Fars and Gilan). Open-ended interview questions were used to identify nutrition and food systems knowledge issues, which experts considered as important to be included in school education programs. Qualitative interviews were analyzed thematically using NVivo. A framework of knowledge that would assist Iranian students and school-leavers to make informed decisions in food-related areas was developed, comprising five major clusters and several sub-clusters. Major knowledge clusters included nutrition basics; food production; every day food-related practices; prevalent nutritional health problems in Iran and improvement of students' ethical attitudes in the food domain. These findings provide a guide to curriculum developers and policy makers to assess current education curricula in order to optimize students' knowledge of nutrition and food systems.