WorldWideScience

Sample records for plume model validation

  1. Initialization of the Euler model MODIS with field data from the 'EPRI plume model validation project'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, G.; Eppel, D.; Lautenschlager, M.; Mueller, A.

    1985-01-01

    The program deck MODIS (''MOment DIStribution'') is designed to be used as operational tool for modelling the dispersion of a point source under general atmospheric conditions. The concentration distribution is determined by calculating its cross-wind moments on a vertical grid oriented in the main wind direction. The model contains a parametrization for horizontal and vertical coefficients based on a second order closure model. The Eulerian time scales, preliminary determined by fitting measured plume cross sections, are confirmed by comparison with data from the EPRI plume model validation project. (orig.) [de

  2. Modeling and validation of Ku-band signal attenuation through rocket plumes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veek, van der B.J.; Chintalapati, S.; Kirk, D.R.; Gutierrez, H.; Bun, R.F.

    2013-01-01

    Communications to and from a launch vehicle during ascent are of critical importance to the success of rocket-launch operations. During ascent, the rocket's exhaust plume causes significant interference in the radio communications between the vehicle and ground station. This paper presents an

  3. Cooling tower plume - model and experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cizek, Jan; Gemperle, Jiri; Strob, Miroslav; Nozicka, Jiri

    The paper discusses the description of the simple model of the, so-called, steam plume, which in many cases forms during the operation of the evaporative cooling systems of the power plants, or large technological units. The model is based on semi-empirical equations that describe the behaviour of a mixture of two gases in case of the free jet stream. In the conclusion of the paper, a simple experiment is presented through which the results of the designed model shall be validated in the subsequent period.

  4. Cooling tower plume - model and experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cizek Jan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses the description of the simple model of the, so-called, steam plume, which in many cases forms during the operation of the evaporative cooling systems of the power plants, or large technological units. The model is based on semi-empirical equations that describe the behaviour of a mixture of two gases in case of the free jet stream. In the conclusion of the paper, a simple experiment is presented through which the results of the designed model shall be validated in the subsequent period.

  5. Numerical model simulation of atmospheric coolant plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaillard, P.

    1980-01-01

    The effect of humid atmospheric coolants on the atmosphere is simulated by means of a three-dimensional numerical model. The atmosphere is defined by its natural vertical profiles of horizontal velocity, temperature, pressure and relative humidity. Effluent discharge is characterised by its vertical velocity and the temperature of air satured with water vapour. The subject of investigation is the area in the vicinity of the point of discharge, with due allowance for the wake effect of the tower and buildings and, where application, wind veer with altitude. The model equations express the conservation relationships for mometum, energy, total mass and water mass, for an incompressible fluid behaving in accordance with the Boussinesq assumptions. Condensation is represented by a simple thermodynamic model, and turbulent fluxes are simulated by introduction of turbulent viscosity and diffusivity data based on in-situ and experimental water model measurements. The three-dimensional problem expressed in terms of the primitive variables (u, v, w, p) is governed by an elliptic equation system which is solved numerically by application of an explicit time-marching algorithm in order to predict the steady-flow velocity distribution, temperature, water vapour concentration and the liquid-water concentration defining the visible plume. Windstill conditions are simulated by a program processing the elliptic equations in an axisymmetrical revolution coordinate system. The calculated visible plumes are compared with plumes observed on site with a view to validate the models [fr

  6. On the validity of a Fickian diffusion model for the spreading of liquid infiltration plumes in partially saturated heterogeneous media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pruess, K.

    1994-01-01

    Localized infiltration of aqueous and -non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) occurs in many circumstances. Examples include leaky underground pipelines and storage tanks, landfill and disposal sites, and surface spills. Because of ever-present heterogeneities on different scales such infiltration plumes are expected to disperse transversally and longitudinally. This paper examines recent suggestions that liquid plumes are being dispersed from medium heterogeneities in a manner that is analogous to Fickian diffusion. Numerical simulation experiments on liquid infiltration in heterogeneous media are performed to study the dispersive effects of small-scale heterogeneity. It is found that plume spreading indeed tends to be diffusive. Our results suggest that, as far as infiltration of liquids is concerned, broad classes of heterogeneous media behave as dispersive media with locally homogeneous (albeit anisotropic) permeability

  7. EM Modelling of RF Propagation Through Plasma Plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandolfo, L.; Bandinelli, M.; Araque Quijano, J. L.; Vecchi, G.; Pawlak, H.; Marliani, F.

    2012-05-01

    Electric propulsion is a commercially attractive solution for attitude and position control of geostationary satellites. Hall-effect ion thrusters generate a localized plasma flow in the surrounding of the satellite, whose impact on the communication system needs to be qualitatively and quantitatively assessed. An electromagnetic modelling tool has been developed and integrated into the Antenna Design Framework- ElectroMagnetic Satellite (ADF-EMS). The system is able to guide the user from the plume definition phases through plume installation and simulation. A validation activity has been carried out and the system has been applied to the plume modulation analysis of SGEO/Hispasat mission.

  8. Advances in the Validation of Satellite-Based Maps of Volcanic Sulfur Dioxide Plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Realmuto, V. J.; Berk, A.; Acharya, P. K.; Kennett, R.

    2013-12-01

    The monitoring of volcanic gas emissions with gas cameras, spectrometer arrays, tethersondes, and UAVs presents new opportunities for the validation of satellite-based retrievals of gas concentrations. Gas cameras and spectrometer arrays provide instantaneous observations of the gas burden, or concentration along an optical path, over broad sections of a plume, similar to the observations acquired by nadir-viewing satellites. Tethersondes and UAVs provide us with direct measurements of the vertical profiles of gas concentrations within plumes. This presentation will focus on our current efforts to validate ASTER-based maps of sulfur dioxide plumes at Turrialba and Kilauea Volcanoes (located in Costa Rica and Hawaii, respectively). These volcanoes, which are the subjects of comprehensive monitoring programs, are challenging targets for thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing due the warm and humid atmospheric conditions. The high spatial resolution of ASTER in the TIR (90 meters) allows us to map the plumes back to their source vents, but also requires us to pay close attention to the temperature and emissivity of the surfaces beneath the plumes. Our knowledge of the surface and atmospheric conditions is never perfect, and we employ interactive mapping techniques that allow us to evaluate the impact of these uncertainties on our estimates of plume composition. To accomplish this interactive mapping we have developed the Plume Tracker tool kit, which integrates retrieval procedures, visualization tools, and a customized version of the MODTRAN radiative transfer (RT) model under a single graphics user interface (GUI). We are in the process of porting the RT calculations to graphics processing units (GPUs) with the goal of achieving a 100-fold increase in the speed of computation relative to conventional CPU-based processing. We will report on our progress with this evolution of Plume Tracker. Portions of this research were conducted at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory

  9. Kinetic electron model for plasma thruster plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merino, Mario; Mauriño, Javier; Ahedo, Eduardo

    2018-03-01

    A paraxial model of an unmagnetized, collisionless plasma plume expanding into vacuum is presented. Electrons are treated kinetically, relying on the adiabatic invariance of their radial action integral for the integration of Vlasov's equation, whereas ions are treated as a cold species. The quasi-2D plasma density, self-consistent electric potential, and electron pressure, temperature, and heat fluxes are analyzed. In particular, the model yields the collisionless cooling of electrons, which differs from the Boltzmann relation and the simple polytropic laws usually employed in fluid and hybrid PIC/fluid plume codes.

  10. Ship plume modeling in EOSTAR

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Iersel, M. van; Mack, A.; Degach, M.A.C.; Eijk, A.M.J. van

    2014-01-01

    The EOSTAR model aims at assessing the performance of electro-optical (EO) sensors deployed in a maritime surface scenario, by providing operational performance measures (such as detection ranges) and synthetic images. The target library of EOSTAR includes larger surface vessels, for which the

  11. Modeling contaminant plumes in fractured limestone aquifers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosthaf, Klaus; Brauns, Bentje; Fjordbøge, Annika Sidelmann

    Determining the fate and transport of contaminant plumes from contaminated sites in limestone aquifers is important because they are a major drinking water resource. This is challenging because they are often heavily fractured and contain chert layers and nodules, resulting in a complex transport...... model. The paper concludes with recommendations on how to identify and employ suitable models to advance the conceptual understanding and as decision support tools for risk assessment and the planning of remedial actions....... behavior. Improved conceptual models are needed for this type of site. Here conceptual models are developed by combining numerical models with field data. Several types of fracture flow and transport models are available for the modeling of contaminant transport in fractured media. These include...... the established approaches of the equivalent porous medium, discrete fracture and dual continuum models. However, these modeling concepts are not well tested for contaminant plume migration in limestone geologies. Our goal was to develop and evaluate approaches for modeling the transport of dissolved contaminant...

  12. Modelling the fate of the Tijuana River discharge plume

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ormondt, M.; Terrill, E.; Hibler, L. F.; van Dongeren, A. R.

    2010-12-01

    After rainfall events, the Tijuana River discharges excess runoff into the ocean in a highly turbid plume. The runoff waters contain large suspended solids concentrations, as well as high levels of toxic contaminants, bacteria, and hepatitis and enteroviruses. Public health hazards posed by the effluent often result in beach closures for several kilometers northward along the U.S. shoreline. A Delft3D model has been set up to predict the fate of the Tijuana River plume. The model takes into account the effects of tides, wind, waves, salinity, and temperature stratification. Heat exchange with the atmosphere is also included. The model consists of a relatively coarse outer domain and a high-resolution surf zone domain that are coupled with Domain Decomposition. The offshore boundary conditions are obtained from the larger NCOM SoCal model (operated by the US Navy) that spans the entire Southern California Bight. A number of discharge events are investigated, in which model results are validated against a wide range of field measurements in the San Diego Bight. These include HF Radar surface currents, REMUS tracks, drifter deployments, satellite imagery, as well as current and temperature profile measurements at a number of locations. The model is able to reproduce the observed current and temperature patterns reasonably well. Under calm conditions, the model results suggest that the hydrodynamics in the San Diego Bight are largely governed by internal waves. During rainfall events, which are typically accompanied by strong winds and high waves, wind and wave driven currents become dominant. An analysis will be made of what conditions determine the trapping and mixing of the plume inside the surfzone and/or the propagation of the plume through the breakers and onto the coastal shelf. The model is now also running in operational mode. Three day forecasts are made every 24 hours. This study was funded by the Office of Naval Research.

  13. Liquid Booster Module (LBM) plume flowfield model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, S. D.

    1981-01-01

    A complete definition of the LBM plume is important for many Shuttle design criteria. The exhaust plume shape has a significant effect on the vehicle base pressure. The LBM definition is also important to the Shuttle base heating, aerodynamics and the influence of the exhaust plume on the launch stand and environment. For these reasons a knowledge of the LBM plume characteristics is necessary. A definition of the sea level LBM plume as well as at several points along the Shuttle trajectory to LBM, burnout is presented.

  14. Towards LES Models of Jets and Plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, A. T.; Mansour, N. N.

    2000-01-01

    As pointed out by Rodi standard integral solutions for jets and plumes developed for discharge into infinite, quiescent ambient are difficult to extend to complex situations, particularly in the presence of boundaries such as the sea floor or ocean surface. In such cases the assumption of similarity breaks down and it is impossible to find a suitable entrainment coefficient. The models are also incapable of describing any but the most slowly varying unsteady motions. There is therefore a need for full time-dependent modeling of the flow field for which there are three main approaches: (1) Reynolds averaged numerical simulation (RANS), (2) large eddy simulation (LES), and (3) direct numerical simulation (DNS). Rodi applied RANS modeling to both jets and plumes with considerable success, the test being a match with experimental data for time-averaged velocity and temperature profiles as well as turbulent kinetic energy and rms axial turbulent velocity fluctuations. This model still relies on empirical constants, some eleven in the case of the buoyant jet, and so would not be applicable to a partly laminar plume, may have limited use in the presence of boundaries, and would also be unsuitable if one is after details of the unsteady component of the flow (the turbulent eddies). At the other end of the scale DNS modeling includes all motions down to the viscous scales. Boersma et al. have built such a model for the non-buoyant case which also compares well with measured data for mean and turbulent velocity components. The model demonstrates its versatility by application to a laminar flow case. As its name implies, DNS directly models the Navier-Stokes equations without recourse to subgrid modeling so for flows with a broad spectrum of motions (high Re) the cost can be prohibitive - the number of required grid points scaling with Re(exp 9/4) and the number of time steps with Re(exp 3/4). The middle road is provided by LES whereby the Navier-Stokes equations are formally

  15. An integral model of plume rise from high explosive detonations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boughton, B.A.; De Laurentis, J.M.

    1987-01-01

    A numerical model has been developed which provides a complete description of the time evolution of both the physical and thermodynamic properties of the cloud formed when a high explosive is detonated. This simulation employs the integral technique. The model equations are derived by integrating the three-dimensional conservation equations of mass, momentum and energy over the plume cross section. Assumptions are made regarding (a) plume symmetry; (b) the shape of profiles of velocity, temperature, etc. across the plume; and (c) the methodology for simulating entrainment and the effects of the crossflow induced pressure drag force on the plume. With these assumptions, the integral equations can be reduced to a set of ordinary differential equations on the plume centerline variables. Only the macroscopic plume characteristics, e.g., plume radius, centerline height, temperature and density, are predicted; details of the plume intrastructure are ignored. The model explicitly takes into account existing meteorology and has been expanded to consider the alterations in plume behavior which occur when aqueous foam is used as a dispersal mitigating material. The simulation was tested by comparison with field measurements of cloud top height and diameter. Predictions were within 25% of field observations over a wide range of explosive yield and atmospheric stability

  16. Numerical Speadsheet Modeling of Natural Attenuation for Groundwater Contaminant Plumes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Twesme, Troy

    1999-01-01

    .... The model was used to evaluate natural attenuation for removal of a trichloroethylene (TCE) plume from a surficial aquifer containing three regions with distinctly different processes for degradation of TCE...

  17. Modeling Smoke Plume-Rise and Dispersion from Southern United States Prescribed Burns with Daysmoke

    Science.gov (United States)

    G L Achtemeier; S L Goodrick; Y Liu; F Garcia-Menendez; Y Hu; M. Odman

    2011-01-01

    We present Daysmoke, an empirical-statistical plume rise and dispersion model for simulating smoke from prescribed burns. Prescribed fires are characterized by complex plume structure including multiple-core updrafts which makes modeling with simple plume models difficult. Daysmoke accounts for plume structure in a three-dimensional veering/sheering atmospheric...

  18. Modeling an Iodine Hall Thruster Plume in the Iodine Satellite (ISAT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Maria

    2016-01-01

    An iodine-operated 200-W Hall thruster plume has been simulated using a hybrid-PIC model to predict the spacecraft surface-plume interaction for spacecraft integration purposes. For validation of the model, the plasma potential, electron temperature, ion current flux, and ion number density of xenon propellant were compared with available measurement data at the nominal operating condition. To simulate iodine plasma, various collision cross sections were found and used in the model. While time-varying atomic iodine species (i.e., I, I+, I2+) information is provided by HPHall simulation at the discharge channel exit, the molecular iodine species (i.e., I2, I2+) are introduced as Maxwellian particles at the channel exit. Simulation results show that xenon and iodine plasma plumes appear to be very similar under the assumptions of the model. Assuming a sticking coefficient of unity, iodine deposition rate is estimated.

  19. Integrating wildfire plume rises within atmospheric transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallia, D. V.; Kochanski, A.; Wu, D.; Urbanski, S. P.; Krueger, S. K.; Lin, J. C.

    2016-12-01

    Wildfires can generate significant pyro-convection that is responsible for releasing pollutants, greenhouse gases, and trace species into the free troposphere, which are then transported a significant distance downwind from the fire. Oftentimes, atmospheric transport and chemistry models have a difficult time resolving the transport of smoke from these wildfires, primarily due to deficiencies in estimating the plume injection height, which has been highlighted in previous work as the most important aspect of simulating wildfire plume transport. As a result of the uncertainties associated with modeled wildfire plume rise, researchers face difficulties modeling the impacts of wildfire smoke on air quality and constraining fire emissions using inverse modeling techniques. Currently, several plume rise parameterizations exist that are able to determine the injection height of fire emissions; however, the success of these parameterizations has been mixed. With the advent of WRF-SFIRE, the wildfire plume rise and injection height can now be explicitly calculated using a fire spread model (SFIRE) that is dynamically linked with the atmosphere simulated by WRF. However, this model has only been tested on a limited basis due to computational costs. Here, we will test the performance of WRF-SFIRE in addition to several commonly adopted plume parameterizations (Freitas, Sofiev, and Briggs) for the 2013 Patch Springs (Utah) and 2012 Baker Canyon (Washington) fires, for both of which observations of plume rise heights are available. These plume rise techniques will then be incorporated within a Lagrangian atmospheric transport model (STILT) in order to simulate CO and CO2 concentrations during NASA's CARVE Earth Science Airborne Program over Alaska during the summer of 2012. Initial model results showed that STILT model simulations were unable to reproduce enhanced CO concentrations produced by Alaskan fires observed during 2012. Near-surface concentrations were drastically

  20. Merits of a Scenario Approach in Dredge Plume Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Claus; Chu, Amy Ling Chu; Hjelmager Jensen, Jacob

    2011-01-01

    Dredge plume modelling is a key tool for quantification of potential impacts to inform the EIA process. There are, however, significant uncertainties associated with the modelling at the EIA stage when both dredging methodology and schedule are likely to be a guess at best as the dredging...... contractor would rarely have been appointed. Simulation of a few variations of an assumed full dredge period programme will generally not provide a good representation of the overall environmental risks associated with the programme. An alternative dredge plume modelling strategy that attempts to encapsulate...... uncertainties associated with preliminary dredging programmes by using a scenario-based modelling approach is presented. The approach establishes a set of representative and conservative scenarios for key factors controlling the spill and plume dispersion and simulates all combinations of e.g. dredge, climatic...

  1. Modelling thermal plume impacts - Kalpakkam approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, T.S.; Anup Kumar, B.; Narasimhan, S.V.

    2002-01-01

    A good understanding of temperature patterns in the receiving waters is essential to know the heat dissipation from thermal plumes originating from coastal power plants. The seasonal temperature profiles of the Kalpakkam coast near Madras Atomic Power Station (MAPS) thermal out fall site are determined and analysed. It is observed that the seasonal current reversal in the near shore zone is one of the major mechanisms for the transport of effluents away from the point of mixing. To further refine our understanding of the mixing and dilution processes, it is necessary to numerically simulate the coastal ocean processes by parameterising the key factors concerned. In this paper, we outline the experimental approach to achieve this objective. (author)

  2. Modeling of the near field plume of a Hall thruster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyd, Iain D.; Yim, John T.

    2004-01-01

    In this study, a detailed numerical model is developed to simulate the xenon plasma near-field plume from a Hall thruster. The model uses a detailed fluid model to describe the electrons and a particle-based kinetic approach is used to model the heavy xenon ions and atoms. The detailed model is applied to compute the near field plume of a small, 200 W Hall thruster. Results from the detailed model are compared with the standard modeling approach that employs the Boltzmann model. The usefulness of the model detailed is assessed through direct comparisons with a number of different measured data sets. The comparisons illustrate that the detailed model accurately predicts a number of features of the measured data not captured by the simpler Boltzmann approach

  3. PLUME-MoM 1.0: A new integral model of volcanic plumes based on the method of moments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de'Michieli Vitturi, M.; Neri, A.; Barsotti, S.

    2015-08-01

    In this paper a new integral mathematical model for volcanic plumes, named PLUME-MoM, is presented. The model describes the steady-state dynamics of a plume in a 3-D coordinate system, accounting for continuous variability in particle size distribution of the pyroclastic mixture ejected at the vent. Volcanic plumes are composed of pyroclastic particles of many different sizes ranging from a few microns up to several centimeters and more. A proper description of such a multi-particle nature is crucial when quantifying changes in grain-size distribution along the plume and, therefore, for better characterization of source conditions of ash dispersal models. The new model is based on the method of moments, which allows for a description of the pyroclastic mixture dynamics not only in the spatial domain but also in the space of parameters of the continuous size distribution of the particles. This is achieved by formulation of fundamental transport equations for the multi-particle mixture with respect to the different moments of the grain-size distribution. Different formulations, in terms of the distribution of the particle number, as well as of the mass distribution expressed in terms of the Krumbein log scale, are also derived. Comparison between the new moments-based formulation and the classical approach, based on the discretization of the mixture in N discrete phases, shows that the new model allows for the same results to be obtained with a significantly lower computational cost (particularly when a large number of discrete phases is adopted). Application of the new model, coupled with uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analyses, enables the investigation of the response of four key output variables (mean and standard deviation of the grain-size distribution at the top of the plume, plume height and amount of mass lost by the plume during the ascent) to changes in the main input parameters (mean and standard deviation) characterizing the

  4. Subsurface oil release field experiment - observations and modelling of subsurface plume behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rye, H.; Brandvik, P.J.; Reed, M.

    1996-01-01

    An experiment was conducted at sea, in which oil was released from 107 metres depth, in order to study plume behaviour. The objective of the underwater release was to simulate a pipeline leakage without gas and high pressure and to study the behaviour of the rising plume. A numerical model for the underwater plume behaviour was used for comparison with field data. The expected path of the plume, the time expected for the plume to reach the sea surface and the width of the plume was modelled. Field data and the numerical model were in good agreement. 10 refs., 2 tabs., 9 figs

  5. Investigation of Balcony Plume Entrainment

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, F.; Nielsen, Peter V.; Heiselberg, Per; Brohus, Henrik; Li, B. Z.

    2009-01-01

    An investigation on the scenarios of the spill plume and its equation was presented in this paper. The study includes two aspects, i.e., the small-scale experiment and the numerical simulation. Two balcony spill plume models are assessed by comparing with the FDS (Fire Dynamic Simulation) and small scale model experiment results. Besides validating the spill model by experiments, the effect of different fire location on balcony plume is also discussed.The results show that the balcony equatio...

  6. Volcanic Plume Elevation Model Derived From Landsat 8: examples on Holuhraun (Iceland) and Mount Etna (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Michele, Marcello; Raucoules, Daniel; Arason, Þórður; Spinetti, Claudia; Corradini, Stefano; Merucci, Luca

    2016-04-01

    The retrieval of both height and velocity of a volcanic plume is an important issue in volcanology. As an example, it is known that large volcanic eruptions can temporarily alter the climate, causing global cooling and shifting precipitation patterns; the ash/gas dispersion in the atmosphere, their impact and lifetime around the globe, greatly depends on the injection altitude. Plume height information is critical for ash dispersion modelling and air traffic security. Furthermore, plume height during explosive volcanism is the primary parameter for estimating mass eruption rate. Knowing the plume altitude is also important to get the correct amount of SO2 concentration from dedicated spaceborne spectrometers. Moreover, the distribution of ash deposits on ground greatly depends on the ash cloud altitude, which has an impact on risk assessment and crisis management. Furthermore, a spatially detailed plume height measure could be used as a hint for gas emission rate estimation and for ash plume volume researches, which both have an impact on climate research, air quality assessment for aviation and finally for the understanding of the volcanic system itself as ash/gas emission rates are related to the state of pressurization of the magmatic chamber. Today, the community mainly relies on ground based measurements but often they can be difficult to collect as by definition volcanic areas are dangerous areas (presence of toxic gases) and can be remotely situated and difficult to access. Satellite remote sensing offers a comprehensive and safe way to estimate plume height. Conventional photogrammetric restitution based on satellite imagery fails in precisely retrieving a plume elevation model as the plume own velocity induces an apparent parallax that adds up to the standard parallax given by the stereoscopic view. Therefore, measurements based on standard satellite photogrammeric restitution do not apply as there is an ambiguity in the measurement of the plume position

  7. A numerical model for buoyant oil jets and smoke plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, L.; Yapa, P. D.

    1997-01-01

    Development of a 3-D numerical model to simulate the behaviour of buoyant oil jets from underwater accidents and smoke plumes from oil burning was described. These jets/plumes can be oil-in-water, oil/gas mixture in water, gas in water, or gas in air. The ambient can have a 3-D flow structure, and spatially/temporally varying flow conditions. The model is based on the Lagrangian integral technique. The model formulation of oil jet includes the diffusion and dissolution of oil from the jet to the ambient environment. It is suitable to simulate well blowout accidents that can occur in deep waters, including that of the North Sea. The model has been thoroughly tested against a variety of data, including data from both laboratory and field experiments. In all cases the simulation data compared very well with experimental data. 26 refs., 10 figs

  8. Numerical Modeling of Water Thermal Plumes Emitted by Thermal Power Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azucena Durán-Colmenares

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This work focuses on the study of thermal dispersion of plumes emitted by power plants into the sea. Wastewater discharge from power stations causes impacts that require investigation or monitoring. A study to characterize the physical effects of thermal plumes into the sea is carried out here by numerical modeling and field measurements. The case study is the thermal discharges of the Presidente Adolfo López Mateos Power Plant, located in Veracruz, on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. This plant is managed by the Federal Electricity Commission of Mexico. The physical effects of such plumes are related to the increase of seawater temperature caused by the hot water discharge of the plant. We focus on the implementation, calibration, and validation of the Delft3D-FLOW model, which solves the shallow-water equations. The numerical simulations consider a critical scenario where meteorological and oceanographic parameters are taken into account to reproduce the proper physical conditions of the environment. The results show a local physical effect of the thermal plumes within the study zone, given the predominant strong winds conditions of the scenario under study.

  9. Modeling of Interactions of Ablated Plumes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Povitsky, Alex

    2008-01-01

    Heat transfer modulation between the gas flow and the Thermal Protection Shield (TPS) that occurs because of ejection of under-expanded pyrolysis gases through the cracks in the TPS is studied by numerical modeling...

  10. A mantle plume model for the Equatorial Highlands of Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiefer, Walter S.; Hager, Bradford H.

    1991-01-01

    The possibility that the Equatorial Highlands are the surface expressions of hot upwelling mantle plumes is considered via a series of mantle plume models developed using a cylindrical axisymmetric finite element code and depth-dependent Newtonian rheology. The results are scaled by assuming whole mantle convection and that Venus and the earth have similar mantle heat flows. The best model fits are for Beta and Atla. The common feature of the allowed viscosity models is that they lack a pronounced low-viscosity zone in the upper mantle. The shape of Venus's long-wavelength admittance spectrum and the slope of its geoid spectrum are also consistent with the lack of a low-viscosity zone. It is argued that the lack of an asthenosphere on Venus is due to the mantle of Venus being drier than the earth's mantle. Mantle plumes may also have contributed to the formation of some smaller highland swells, such as the Bell and Eistla regions and the Hathor/Innini/Ushas region.

  11. State of the art atmospheric dispersion modelling. Should the Gaussian plume model still be used?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richter, Cornelia [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) gGmbH, Koeln (Germany)

    2016-11-15

    For regulatory purposes with respect to licensing and supervision of airborne releases of nuclear installations, the Gaussian plume model is still in use in Germany. However, for complex situations the Gaussian plume model is to be replaced by a Lagrangian particle model. Now the new EU basic safety standards for protection against the dangers arising from exposure to ionising radiation (EU BSS) [1] asks for a realistic assessment of doses to the members of the public from authorised practices. This call for a realistic assessment raises the question whether dispersion modelling with the Gaussian plume model is an adequate approach anymore or whether the use of more complex models is mandatory.

  12. Using satellite imagery for qualitative evaluation of plume transport in modeling the effects of the Kuwait oil fire smoke plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bass, A.; Janota, P.

    1992-01-01

    To forecast the behavior of the Kuwait oil fire smoke plumes and their possible acute or chronic health effects over the Arabian Gulf region, TASC created a comprehensive health and environmental impacts modeling system. A specially-adapted Lagrangian puff transport model was used to create (a) short-term (multiday) forecasts of plume transport and ground-level concentrations of soot and SO 2 ; and (b) long-term (seasonal and longer) estimates of average surface concentrations and depositions. EPA-approved algorithms were used to transform exposures to SO 2 and soot (as PAH/BaP) into morbidity, mortality and crop damage risks. Absent any ground truth, satellite imagery from the NOAA Polar Orbiter and the ESA Geostationary Meteosat offered the only opportunity for timely qualitative evaluation of the long-range plume transport and diffusion predictions. This paper shows the use of actual satellite images (including animated loops of hourly Meteosat images) to evaluate plume forecasts in near-real-time, and to sanity-check the meso- and long-range plume transport projections for the long-term estimates. Example modeled concentrations, depositions and health effects are shown

  13. IR sensor design insight from missile-plume prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapanotti, John L.; Gilbert, Bruno; Richer, Guy; Stowe, Robert

    2002-08-01

    Modern anti-tank missiles and the requirement of rapid deployment have significantly reduced the use of passive armour in protecting land vehicles. Vehicle survivability is becoming more dependent on sensors, computers and countermeasures to detect and avoid threats. An analysis of missile propellants suggests that missile detection based on plume characteristics alone may be more difficult than anticipated. Currently, the passive detection of missiles depends on signatures with a significant ultraviolet component. This approach is effective in detecting anti-aircraft missiles that rely on powerful motors to pursue high-speed aircraft. The high temperature exhaust from these missiles contains significant levels of carbon dioxide, water and, often, metal oxides such as alumina. The plumes emits strongest in the infrared, 1 to 5micrometers , regions with a significant component of the signature extending into the ultraviolet domain. Many anti-tank missiles do not need the same level of propulsion and radiate significantly less. These low velocity missiles, relying on the destructive force of shaped-charge warhead, are more difficult to detect. There is virtually no ultraviolet component and detection based on UV sensors is impractical. The transition in missile detection from UV to IR is reasonable, based on trends in imaging technology, but from the analysis presented in this paper even IR imagers may have difficulty in detecting missile plumes. This suggests that the emphasis should be placed in the detection of the missile hard body in the longer wavelengths of 8 to 12micrometers . The analysis described in this paper is based on solution of the governing equations of plume physics and chemistry. These models will be used to develop better sensors and threat detection algorithms.

  14. Aquatic dispersion modelling of a tritium plume in Lake Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klukas, M.H.; Moltyaner, G.L.

    1996-05-01

    Approximately 2900 kg of tritiated water, containing 2.3E+15 Bq of tritium, were released to Lake Ontario via the cooling water discharge when a leak developed in a moderator heat exchanger in Unit 1 at the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station (PNGS) on 1992 August 2. The release provided the opportunity to study the dispersion of a tritium plume in the coastal zone of Lake Ontario. Current direction over the two-week period following the release was predominantly parallel to the shore, and elevated tritium concentrations were observed up to 20 km east and 85 km west of the PNGS. Predictions of the tritium plume movement were made using current velocity measurements taken at 8-m depth, 2.5 km offshore from Darlington and using a empirical relationship where alongshore current speed is assumed to be proportional to the alongshore component of the wind speed. The tritium migration was best described using current velocity measurements. The tritium plume dispersion is modelled using the one-dimensional advection-dispersion equation. Transport parameters are the alongshore current speed and longitudinal dispersion coefficient. Longitudinal dispersion coefficients, estimated by fitting the solution of the advection-dispersion equation to measured concentration distance profiles ranged from 3.75 to 10.57 m 2 s -1 . Simulations using the fitted values of the dispersion coefficient were able to describe maximum tritium concentrations measured at water supply plants located within 25 km of Pickering to within a factor of 3. The dispersion coefficient is a function of spatial and temporal variability in current velocity and the fitted dispersion coefficients estimated here may not be suitable for predicting tritium plume dispersion under different current conditions. The sensitivity of the dispersion coefficient to variability in current conditions should be evaluated in further field experiments. (author). 13 refs., 7 tabs., 12 figs

  15. Numerical modeling of plasma plume evolution against ambient background gas in laser blow off experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patel, Bhavesh G.; Das, Amita; Kaw, Predhiman; Singh, Rajesh; Kumar, Ajai

    2012-01-01

    Two dimensional numerical modelling based on simplified hydrodynamic evolution for an expanding plasma plume (created by laser blow off) against an ambient background gas has been carried out. A comparison with experimental observations shows that these simulations capture most features of the plasma plume expansion. The plume location and other gross features are reproduced as per the experimental observation in quantitative detail. The plume shape evolution and its dependence on the ambient background gas are in good qualitative agreement with the experiment. This suggests that a simplified hydrodynamic expansion model is adequate for the description of plasma plume expansion.

  16. Discontinuous Galerkin modeling of the Columbia River's coupled estuary-plume dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallaeys, Valentin; Kärnä, Tuomas; Delandmeter, Philippe; Lambrechts, Jonathan; Baptista, António M.; Deleersnijder, Eric; Hanert, Emmanuel

    2018-04-01

    The Columbia River (CR) estuary is characterized by high river discharge and strong tides that generate high velocity flows and sharp density gradients. Its dynamics strongly affects the coastal ocean circulation. Tidal straining in turn modulates the stratification in the estuary. Simulating the hydrodynamics of the CR estuary and plume therefore requires a multi-scale model as both shelf and estuarine circulations are coupled. Such a model has to keep numerical dissipation as low as possible in order to correctly represent the plume propagation and the salinity intrusion in the estuary. Here, we show that the 3D baroclinic discontinuous Galerkin finite element model SLIM 3D is able to reproduce the main features of the CR estuary-to-ocean continuum. We introduce new vertical discretization and mode splitting that allow us to model a region characterized by complex bathymetry and sharp density and velocity gradients. Our model takes into account the major forcings, i.e. tides, surface wind stress and river discharge, on a single multi-scale grid. The simulation period covers the end of spring-early summer of 2006, a period of high river flow and strong changes in the wind regime. SLIM 3D is validated with in-situ data on the shelf and at multiple locations in the estuary and compared with an operational implementation of SELFE. The model skill in the estuary and on the shelf indicate that SLIM 3D is able to reproduce the key processes driving the river plume dynamics, such as the occurrence of bidirectional plumes or reversals of the inner shelf coastal currents.

  17. Flowfield and Radiation Analysis of Missile Exhaust Plumes Using a Turbulent-Chemistry Interaction Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Calhoon, W. H; Kenzakowski, D. C

    2000-01-01

    ... components and missile defense systems. Current engineering level models neglect turbulent-chemistry interactions and typically underpredict the intensity of plume afterburning and afterburning burnout...

  18. A hybrid plume model for local-scale dispersion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nikmo, J.; Tuovinen, J.P.; Kukkonen, J.; Valkama, I.

    1997-12-31

    The report describes the contribution of the Finnish Meteorological Institute to the project `Dispersion from Strongly Buoyant Sources`, under the `Environment` programme of the European Union. The project addresses the atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles emitted from typical fires in warehouses and chemical stores. In the study only the `passive plume` regime, in which the influence of plume buoyancy is no longer important, is addressed. The mathematical model developed and its numerical testing is discussed. The model is based on atmospheric boundary-layer scaling theory. In the vicinity of the source, Gaussian equations are used in both the horizontal and vertical directions. After a specified transition distance, gradient transfer theory is applied in the vertical direction, while the horizontal dispersion is still assumed to be Gaussian. The dispersion parameters and eddy diffusivity are modelled in a form which facilitates the use of a meteorological pre-processor. Also a new model for the vertical eddy diffusivity (K{sub z}), which is a continuous function of height in the various atmospheric scaling regions is presented. The model includes a treatment of the dry deposition of gases and particulate matter, but wet deposition has been neglected. A numerical solver for the atmospheric diffusion equation (ADE) has been developed. The accuracy of the numerical model was analysed by comparing the model predictions with two analytical solutions of ADE. The numerical deviations of the model predictions from these analytic solutions were less than two per cent for the computational regime. The report gives numerical results for the vertical profiles of the eddy diffusivity and the dispersion parameters, and shows spatial concentration distributions in various atmospheric conditions 39 refs.

  19. Plume Characterization of a Laboratory Model 22 N GPIM Thruster via High-Frequency Raman Spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, George J.; Kojima, Jun J.; Arrington, Lynn A.; Deans, Matthew C.; Reed, Brian D.; Kinzbach, McKenzie I.; McLean, Christopher H.

    2015-01-01

    The Green Propellant Infusion Mission (GPIM) will demonstrate the capability of a green propulsion system, specifically, one using the monopropellant, AF-M315E. One of the risks identified for GPIM is potential contamination of sensitive areas of the spacecraft from the effluents in the plumes of AF-M315E thrusters. Plume characterization of a laboratory-model 22 N thruster via optical diagnostics was conducted at NASA GRC in a space-simulated environment. A high-frequency pulsed laser was coupled with an electron-multiplied ICCD camera to perform Raman spectroscopy in the near-field, low-pressure plume. The Raman data yielded plume constituents and temperatures over a range of thruster chamber pressures and as a function of thruster (catalyst) operating time. Schlieren images of the near-field plume enabled calculation of plume velocities and revealed general plume structure of the otherwise invisible plume. The measured velocities are compared to those predicted by a two-dimensional, kinetic model. Trends in data and numerical results are presented from catalyst mid-life to end-of-life. The results of this investigation were coupled with the Raman and Schlieren data to provide an anchor for plume impingement analysis presented in a companion paper. The results of both analyses will be used to improve understanding of the nature of AF-M315E plumes and their impacts to GPIM and other future missions.

  20. Gaussian model for emission rate measurement of heated plumes using hyperspectral data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grauer, Samuel J.; Conrad, Bradley M.; Miguel, Rodrigo B.; Daun, Kyle J.

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents a novel model for measuring the emission rate of a heated gas plume using hyperspectral data from an FTIR imaging spectrometer. The radiative transfer equation (RTE) is used to relate the spectral intensity of a pixel to presumed Gaussian distributions of volume fraction and temperature within the plume, along a line-of-sight that corresponds to the pixel, whereas previous techniques exclusively presume uniform distributions for these parameters. Estimates of volume fraction and temperature are converted to a column density by integrating the local molecular density along each path. Image correlation velocimetry is then employed on raw spectral intensity images to estimate the volume-weighted normal velocity at each pixel. Finally, integrating the product of velocity and column density along a control surface yields an estimate of the instantaneous emission rate. For validation, emission rate estimates were derived from synthetic hyperspectral images of a heated methane plume, generated using data from a large-eddy simulation. Calculating the RTE with Gaussian distributions of volume fraction and temperature, instead of uniform distributions, improved the accuracy of column density measurement by 14%. Moreover, the mean methane emission rate measured using our approach was within 4% of the ground truth. These results support the use of Gaussian distributions of thermodynamic properties in calculation of the RTE for optical gas diagnostics.

  1. Field studies of submerged-diffuser thermal plumes with comparisons to predictive model results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frigo, A.A.; Paddock, R.A.; Ditmars, J.D.

    1976-01-01

    Thermal plumes from submerged discharges of cooling water from two power plants on Lake Michigan were studied. The system for the acquisition of water temperatures and ambient conditions permitted the three-dimensional structure of the plumes to be determined. The Zion Nuclear Power Station has two submerged discharge structures separated by only 94 m. Under conditions of flow from both structures, interaction between the two plumes resulted in larger thermal fields than would be predicted by the superposition of single non-interacting plumes. Maximum temperatures in the near-field region of the plume compared favorably with mathematical model predictions. A comparison of physical-model predictions for the plume at the D. C. Cook Nuclear Plant with prototype measurements indicated good agreement in the near-field region, but differences in the far-field occurred as similitude was not preserved there

  2. A comparison of the Gaussian Plume Diffusion Model with experimental data from Tilbury and Northfleet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barker, C.D.

    1979-07-01

    The Gaussian Plume Diffusion Model, using Smith's scheme for σsub(z) and various models for σsub(y), is compared with measured values of the location and strength of maximum ground level concentration taken during the Tilbury and Northfleet experiments. The position of maximum ground level concentration (xsub(m)) is found to be relatively insensitive to σsub(y) and Smith's model for σsub(z) is found to predict xsub(m) on average to within 50% for plume heights less than 200 - 400m (dependent on atmosphere stability). Several models for σsub(y) are examined by comparing predicted and observed values for the normalised maximum ground level concentration (Xsub(m)) and a modified form of Moore's model for σsub(y) is found to give the best overall fit, on average to within 30%. Gifford's release duration dependent model for σsub(y) is found to consistently underestimate Xsub(m) by 35 - 45%. This comparison is only a partial validation of the models described above and suggestions are made as to where further work is required. (author)

  3. Validation of HEDR models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.; Simpson, J.C.; Eslinger, P.W.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.

    1994-05-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computer models for estimating the possible radiation doses that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the validation of these models. In the HEDR Project, the model validation exercise consisted of comparing computational model estimates with limited historical field measurements and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the models. The results of any one test do not mean that a model is valid. Rather, the collection of tests together provide a level of confidence that the HEDR models are valid

  4. The mantle-plume model, its feasibility and consequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calsteren, van P.W.C.

    1981-01-01

    High beat-flow foci on the Earth have been named ‘hot-spots’ and are commonly correlated with ‘mantle-plumes’ in the deep. A mantle plume may be described as a portion of mantle material with a higher heat content than its surroundings. The intrusion of a mantle-plume is inferred to be similar to

  5. Multiphase CFD modeling of nearfield fate of sediment plumes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saremi, Sina; Hjelmager Jensen, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    Disposal of dredged material and the overflow discharge during the dredging activities is a matter of concern due to the potential risks imposed by the plumes on surrounding marine environment. This gives rise to accurately prediction of the fate of the sediment plumes released in ambient waters...

  6. Model Intercomparison Study to Investigate a Dense Contaminant Plume in a Complex Hydrogeologic System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, Mark D.; Cole, Charles R.; Foley, Michael G.; Zinina, Galina A.; Zinin, Alexander I.; Vasil'Kova, Nelly A.; Samsonova, Lilia M.

    2001-01-01

    A joint Russian and U.S. model intercomparison study was undertaken for developing more realistic contaminant transport models of the Mayak Site, Southern Urals. The test problems were developed by the Russian Team based on their experience modeling contaminant migration near Lake Karachai. The intercomparison problems were designed to address lake and contaminant plume interactions, as well as river interactions and plume density effects. Different numerical codes were used. Overall there is good agreement between the results of both models. Features shown by both models include (1) the sinking of the plume below the lake, (2) the raising of the water table in the fresh water adjacent to the lake in response to the increased pressure from the dense plume, and (3) the formation of a second sinking plume in an area where evapotranspiration exceeded infiltration, thus increasing the solute concentrations above the source (i.e., lake) values

  7. Martian methane plume models for defining Mars rover methane source search strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicol, Christopher; Ellery, Alex; Lynch, Brian; Cloutis, Ed

    2018-07-01

    The detection of atmospheric methane on Mars implies an active methane source. This introduces the possibility of a biotic source with the implied need to determine whether the methane is indeed biotic in nature or geologically generated. There is a clear need for robotic algorithms which are capable of manoeuvring a rover through a methane plume on Mars to locate its source. We explore aspects of Mars methane plume modelling to reveal complex dynamics characterized by advection and diffusion. A statistical analysis of the plume model has been performed and compared to analyses of terrestrial plume models. Finally, we consider a robotic search strategy to find a methane plume source. We find that gradient-based techniques are ineffective, but that more sophisticated model-based search strategies are unlikely to be available in near-term rover missions.

  8. Modeling of plasma plume induced during laser welding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moscicki, T.; Hoffman, J.; Szymanski, Z.

    2005-01-01

    During laser welding, the interaction of intense laser radiation with a work-piece leads to the formation of a long, thin, cylindrical cavity in a metal, called a keyhole. Generation of a keyhole enables the laser beam to penetrate into the work-piece and is essential for deep welding. The keyhole contains ionized metal vapour and is surrounded by molten material called the weld pool. The metal vapour, which flows from the keyhole mixes with the shielding gas flowing from the opposite direction and forms a plasma plume over the keyhole mouth. The plasma plume has considerable influence on the processing conditions. Plasma strongly absorbs laser radiation and significantly changes energy transfer from the laser beam to a material. In this paper the results of theoretical modelling of plasma plume induced during welding with CO 2 laser are presented. The set of equations consists of equation of conservation of mass, energy, momentum and the diffusion equation: ∂ρ/∂t + ∇·(ρ ρ ν =0; ∂(ρE)/∂t + ∇·( ρ ν (ρE + p)) = ∇ (k eff ∇T - Σ j h j ρ J j + (τ eff · ρ ν )) + Σ i κ i I i - R; ∂/∂t(ρ ρ ν ) + ∇· (ρ ρ ν ρ ν ) = - ∇p + ∇(τ) + ρ ρ g + ρ F, where τ is viscous tensor τ = μ[(∇ ρ ν + ∇ ρT ν )-2/3∇· ρ ν I]; ∂/∂t(ρY i ) + ∇·(ρ ρ ν Y i ) = ∇·ρD i,m ∇T i ; where μ ν denotes velocity vector, E - energy, ρ mass density; k - thermal conductivity, T- temperature, κ - absorption coefficient, I i local laser intensity, R - radiation loss function, p - pressure, h j enthalpy, J j - diffusion flux of j component, ν g - gravity, μ F - external force, μ - dynamic viscosity, I - unit tensor, Y i - mass fraction of iron vapor in the gas mixture, D i,m - mass diffusion coefficient. The terms k eff and τ eff contain the turbulent component of the thermal conductivity and the viscosity, respectively. All the material functions are functions of the temperature and mass fraction only. The equations

  9. Performance of monitoring networks estimated from a Gaussian plume model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seebregts, A.J.; Hienen, J.F.A.

    1990-10-01

    In support of the ECN study on monitoring strategies after nuclear accidents, the present report describes the analysis of the performance of a monitoring network in a square grid. This network is used to estimate the distribution of the deposition pattern after a release of radioactivity into the atmosphere. The analysis is based upon a single release, a constant wind direction and an atmospheric dispersion according to a simplified Gaussian plume model. A technique is introduced to estimate the parameters in this Gaussian model based upon measurements at specific monitoring locations and linear regression, although this model is intrinsically non-linear. With these estimated parameters and the Gaussian model the distribution of the contamination due to deposition can be estimated. To investigate the relation between the network and the accuracy of the estimates for the deposition, deposition data have been generated by the Gaussian model, including a measurement error by a Monte Carlo simulation and this procedure has been repeated for several grid sizes, dispersion conditions, number of measurements per location, and errors per single measurement. The present technique has also been applied for the mesh sizes of two networks in the Netherlands, viz. the Landelijk Meetnet Radioaciviteit (National Measurement Network on Radioactivity, mesh size approx. 35 km) and the proposed Landelijk Meetnet Nucleaire Incidenten (National Measurement Network on Nuclear Incidents, mesh size approx. 15 km). The results show accuracies of 11 and 7 percent, respectively, if monitoring locations are used more than 10 km away from the postulated accident site. These figures are based upon 3 measurements per location and a dispersion during neutral weather with a wind velocity of 4 m/s. For stable weather conditions and low wind velocities, i.e. a small plume, the calculated accuracies are at least a factor 1.5 worse.The present type of analysis makes a cost-benefit approach to the

  10. Hybrid 3D model for the interaction of plasma thruster plumes with nearby objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cichocki, Filippo; Domínguez-Vázquez, Adrián; Merino, Mario; Ahedo, Eduardo

    2017-12-01

    This paper presents a hybrid particle-in-cell (PIC) fluid approach to model the interaction of a plasma plume with a spacecraft and/or any nearby object. Ions and neutrals are modeled with a PIC approach, while electrons are treated as a fluid. After a first iteration of the code, the domain is split into quasineutral and non-neutral regions, based on non-neutrality criteria, such as the relative charge density and the Debye length-to-cell size ratio. At the material boundaries of the former quasineutral region, a dedicated algorithm ensures that the Bohm condition is met. In the latter non-neutral regions, the electron density and electric potential are obtained by solving the coupled electron momentum balance and Poisson equations. Boundary conditions for both the electric current and potential are finally obtained with a plasma sheath sub-code and an equivalent circuit model. The hybrid code is validated by applying it to a typical plasma plume-spacecraft interaction scenario, and the physics and capabilities of the model are finally discussed.

  11. Sensitivity analysis of alkaline plume modelling: influence of mineralogy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaboreau, S.; Claret, F.; Marty, N.; Burnol, A.; Tournassat, C.; Gaucher, E.C.; Munier, I.; Michau, N.; Cochepin, B.

    2010-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. In the context of a disposal facility for radioactive waste in clayey geological formation, an important modelling effort has been carried out in order to predict the time evolution of interacting cement based (concrete or cement) and clay (argillites and bentonite) materials. The high number of modelling input parameters associated with non negligible uncertainties makes often difficult the interpretation of modelling results. As a consequence, it is necessary to carry out sensitivity analysis on main modelling parameters. In a recent study, Marty et al. (2009) could demonstrate that numerical mesh refinement and consideration of dissolution/precipitation kinetics have a marked effect on (i) the time necessary to numerically clog the initial porosity and (ii) on the final mineral assemblage at the interface. On the contrary, these input parameters have little effect on the extension of the alkaline pH plume. In the present study, we propose to investigate the effects of the considered initial mineralogy on the principal simulation outputs: (1) the extension of the high pH plume, (2) the time to clog the porosity and (3) the alteration front in the clay barrier (extension and nature of mineralogy changes). This was done through sensitivity analysis on both concrete composition and clay mineralogical assemblies since in most published studies, authors considered either only one composition per materials or simplified mineralogy in order to facilitate or to reduce their calculation times. 1D Cartesian reactive transport models were run in order to point out the importance of (1) the crystallinity of concrete phases, (2) the type of clayey materials and (3) the choice of secondary phases that are allowed to precipitate during calculations. Two concrete materials with either nanocrystalline or crystalline phases were simulated in contact with two clayey materials (smectite MX80 or Callovo- Oxfordian argillites). Both

  12. ALOFT-PC a smoke plume trajectory model for personal computers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walton, W.D.; McGrattan, K.B.; Mullin, J.V.

    1996-01-01

    A computer model, named ALOFT-PC, was developed for use during in-situ burning of oil spills to predict smoke plume trajectory. The downwind distribution of smoke particulate is a complex function of fire parameters, meteorological conditions, and topographic features. Experimental burns have shown that the downwind distribution of smoke is not Gaussian and simple smoke plume models do not capture the observed plume features. ALOFT-PC consists of the Navier-Stokes equations using an eddy viscosity over a uniform grid that spans the smoke plume and its surroundings. The model inputs are wind speed and variability, atmospheric temperature profile, and fire parameters and the output is the average of the plume. 7 refs., 3 tabs

  13. Model Validation Status Review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    E.L. Hardin

    2001-01-01

    The primary objective for the Model Validation Status Review was to perform a one-time evaluation of model validation associated with the analysis/model reports (AMRs) containing model input to total-system performance assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain site recommendation (SR). This review was performed in response to Corrective Action Request BSC-01-C-01 (Clark 2001, Krisha 2001) pursuant to Quality Assurance review findings of an adverse trend in model validation deficiency. The review findings in this report provide the following information which defines the extent of model validation deficiency and the corrective action needed: (1) AMRs that contain or support models are identified, and conversely, for each model the supporting documentation is identified. (2) The use for each model is determined based on whether the output is used directly for TSPA-SR, or for screening (exclusion) of features, events, and processes (FEPs), and the nature of the model output. (3) Two approaches are used to evaluate the extent to which the validation for each model is compliant with AP-3.10Q (Analyses and Models). The approaches differ in regard to whether model validation is achieved within individual AMRs as originally intended, or whether model validation could be readily achieved by incorporating information from other sources. (4) Recommendations are presented for changes to the AMRs, and additional model development activities or data collection, that will remedy model validation review findings, in support of licensing activities. The Model Validation Status Review emphasized those AMRs that support TSPA-SR (CRWMS M and O 2000bl and 2000bm). A series of workshops and teleconferences was held to discuss and integrate the review findings. The review encompassed 125 AMRs (Table 1) plus certain other supporting documents and data needed to assess model validity. The AMRs were grouped in 21 model areas representing the modeling of processes affecting the natural and

  14. Model Validation Status Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    E.L. Hardin

    2001-11-28

    The primary objective for the Model Validation Status Review was to perform a one-time evaluation of model validation associated with the analysis/model reports (AMRs) containing model input to total-system performance assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain site recommendation (SR). This review was performed in response to Corrective Action Request BSC-01-C-01 (Clark 2001, Krisha 2001) pursuant to Quality Assurance review findings of an adverse trend in model validation deficiency. The review findings in this report provide the following information which defines the extent of model validation deficiency and the corrective action needed: (1) AMRs that contain or support models are identified, and conversely, for each model the supporting documentation is identified. (2) The use for each model is determined based on whether the output is used directly for TSPA-SR, or for screening (exclusion) of features, events, and processes (FEPs), and the nature of the model output. (3) Two approaches are used to evaluate the extent to which the validation for each model is compliant with AP-3.10Q (Analyses and Models). The approaches differ in regard to whether model validation is achieved within individual AMRs as originally intended, or whether model validation could be readily achieved by incorporating information from other sources. (4) Recommendations are presented for changes to the AMRs, and additional model development activities or data collection, that will remedy model validation review findings, in support of licensing activities. The Model Validation Status Review emphasized those AMRs that support TSPA-SR (CRWMS M&O 2000bl and 2000bm). A series of workshops and teleconferences was held to discuss and integrate the review findings. The review encompassed 125 AMRs (Table 1) plus certain other supporting documents and data needed to assess model validity. The AMRs were grouped in 21 model areas representing the modeling of processes affecting the natural and

  15. Laser-generated plasma plume expansion: Combined continuous-microscopic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itina, Tatiana E.; Hermann, Jörg; Delaporte, Philippe; Sentis, Marc

    2002-12-01

    The physical phenomena involved in the interaction of a laser-generated plasma plume with a background gas are studied numerically. A three-dimensional combined model is developed to describe the plasma plume formation and its expansion in vacuum or into a background gas. The proposed approach takes advantages of both continuous and microscopic descriptions. The simulation technique is suitable for the simulation of high-rate laser ablation for a wide range of background pressure. The model takes into account the mass diffusion and the energy exchange between the ablated and background species, as well as the collective motion of the ablated species and the background-gas particles. The developed approach is used to investigate the influence of the background gas on the expansion dynamics of the plume obtained during the laser ablation of aluminum. At moderate pressures, both plume and gas compressions are weak and the process is mainly governed by the diffusive mixing. At higher pressures, the interaction is determined by the plume-gas pressure interplay, the plume front is strongly compressed, and its center exhibits oscillations. In this case, the snowplough effect takes place, leading to the formation of a compressed gas layer in front of the plume. The background pressure needed for the beginning of the snowplough effect is determined from the plume and gas density profiles obtained at various pressures. Simulation results are compared with experimentally measured density distributions. It is shown that the calculations suggest localized formation of molecules during reactive laser ablation.

  16. Laser-generated plasma plume expansion: Combined continuous-microscopic modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itina, Tatiana E.; Hermann, Joerg; Delaporte, Philippe; Sentis, Marc

    2002-01-01

    The physical phenomena involved in the interaction of a laser-generated plasma plume with a background gas are studied numerically. A three-dimensional combined model is developed to describe the plasma plume formation and its expansion in vacuum or into a background gas. The proposed approach takes advantages of both continuous and microscopic descriptions. The simulation technique is suitable for the simulation of high-rate laser ablation for a wide range of background pressure. The model takes into account the mass diffusion and the energy exchange between the ablated and background species, as well as the collective motion of the ablated species and the background-gas particles. The developed approach is used to investigate the influence of the background gas on the expansion dynamics of the plume obtained during the laser ablation of aluminum. At moderate pressures, both plume and gas compressions are weak and the process is mainly governed by the diffusive mixing. At higher pressures, the interaction is determined by the plume-gas pressure interplay, the plume front is strongly compressed, and its center exhibits oscillations. In this case, the snowplough effect takes place, leading to the formation of a compressed gas layer in front of the plume. The background pressure needed for the beginning of the snowplough effect is determined from the plume and gas density profiles obtained at various pressures. Simulation results are compared with experimentally measured density distributions. It is shown that the calculations suggest localized formation of molecules during reactive laser ablation

  17. Validation of simulation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rehman, Muniza; Pedersen, Stig Andur

    2012-01-01

    In philosophy of science, the interest for computational models and simulations has increased heavily during the past decades. Different positions regarding the validity of models have emerged but the views have not succeeded in capturing the diversity of validation methods. The wide variety...

  18. Numerical modeling of continental lithospheric weak zone over plume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perepechko, Y. V.; Sorokin, K. E.

    2011-12-01

    The work is devoted to the development of magmatic systems in the continental lithosphere over diffluent mantle plumes. The areas of tension originating over them are accompanied by appearance of fault zones, and the formation of permeable channels, which are distributed magmatic melts. The numerical simulation of the dynamics of deformation fields in the lithosphere due to convection currents in the upper mantle, and the formation of weakened zones that extend up to the upper crust and create the necessary conditions for the formation of intermediate magma chambers has been carried out. Thermodynamically consistent non-isothermal model simulates the processes of heat and mass transfer of a wide class of magmatic systems, as well as the process of strain localization in the lithosphere and their influence on the formation of high permeability zones in the lower crust. The substance of the lithosphere is a rheologic heterophase medium, which is described by a two-velocity hydrodynamics. This makes it possible to take into account the process of penetration of the melt from the asthenosphere into the weakened zone. The energy dissipation occurs mainly due to interfacial friction and inelastic relaxation of shear stresses. The results of calculation reveal a nonlinear process of the formation of porous channels and demonstrate the diversity of emerging dissipative structures which are determined by properties of both heterogeneous lithosphere and overlying crust. Mutual effect of a permeable channel and the corresponding filtration process of the melt on the mantle convection and the dynamics of the asthenosphere have been studied. The formation of dissipative structures in heterogeneous lithosphere above mantle plumes occurs in accordance with the following scenario: initially, the elastic behavior of heterophase lithosphere leads to the formation of the narrow weakened zone, though sufficiently extensive, with higher porosity. Further, the increase in the width of

  19. Characterization and modeling of turbidity density plume induced into stratified reservoir by flood runoffs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, S W; Lee, H S

    2009-01-01

    In monsoon climate area, turbidity flows typically induced by flood runoffs cause numerous environmental impacts such as impairment of fish habitat and river attraction, and degradation of water supply efficiency. This study was aimed to characterize the physical dynamics of turbidity plume induced into a stratified reservoir using field monitoring and numerical simulations, and to assess the effect of different withdrawal scenarios on the control of downstream water quality. Three different turbidity models (RUN1, RUN2, RUN3) were developed based on a two-dimensional laterally averaged hydrodynamic and transport model, and validated against field data. RUN1 assumed constant settling velocity of suspended sediment, while RUN2 estimated the settling velocity as a function of particle size, density, and water temperature to consider vertical stratification. RUN3 included a lumped first-order turbidity attenuation rate taking into account the effects of particles aggregation and degradable organic particles. RUN3 showed best performance in replicating the observed variations of in-reservoir and release turbidity. Numerical experiments implemented to assess the effectiveness of different withdrawal depths showed that the alterations of withdrawal depth can modify the pathway and flow regimes of the turbidity plume, but its effect on the control of release water quality could be trivial.

  20. Contaminant plume configuration and movement: an experimental model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alencoao, A.; Reis, A.; Pereira, M. G.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Caramelo, L.; Amraoui, M.; Amorim, V.

    2009-04-01

    The relevance of Science and Technology in our daily routines makes it compulsory to educate citizens who have both scientific literacy and scientific knowledge. These will allow them to be intervening citizens in a constantly changing society. Thus, physical and natural sciences are included in school curricula, both in primary and secondary education, with the fundamental aim of developing in the students the skills, attitudes and knowledge needed for the understanding of the planet Earth and its real problems. On the other hand, teaching in Geosciences is more and more based on practical methodologies which use didactic material, sustaining teachers' pedagogical practices and facilitating students' learning tasks suggested on the syllabus defined for each school level. Themes related to exploring the different components of the Hydrological Cycle and themes related to natural environment protection and preservation, namely water resources and soil contamination by industrial and urban sewage are examples of subject matters included on the Portuguese syllabus. These topics motivated the conception and construction of experimental models for the study of the propagation of pollutants on a porous medium. The experimental models allow inducing a horizontal flux of water though different kinds of permeable substances (e.g. sand, silt), with contamination spots on its surface. These experimental activities facilitate the student to understand the flow path of contaminating substances on the saturated zone and to observe the contaminant plume configuration and movement. The activities are explored in a teaching and learning process perspective where the student builds its own knowledge through real question- problem based learning which relate Science, Technology and Society. These activities have been developed in the framework of project ‘Water in the Environment' (CV/PVI/0854) of the POCTI Program (Programa Operacional "Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovação") financed

  1. Modelling the transport of suspended particulate matter by the Rhone River plume (France). Implications for pollutant dispersion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perianez, R.

    2005-01-01

    A model to simulate the transport of suspended particulate matter by the Rhone River plume has been developed. The model solves the 3D hydrodynamic equations, including baroclinic terms and a 1-equation turbulence model, and the suspended matter equations including advection/diffusion of particles, settling and deposition. Four particle classes are considered simultaneously according to observations in the Rhone. Computed currents, salinity and particle distributions are, in general, in good agreement with observations or previous calculations. The model also provides sedimentation rates and the distribution of different particle classes over the sea bed. It has been found that high sedimentation rates close to the river mouth are due to coarse particles that sink rapidly. Computed sedimentation rates are also similar to those derived from observations. The model has been applied to simulate the transport of radionuclides by the plume, since suspended matter is the main vector for them. The radionuclide transport model, previously described and validated, includes exchanges of radionuclides between water, suspended matter and bottom sediment described in terms of kinetic rates. A new feature is the explicit inclusion of the dependence of kinetic rates upon salinity. The model has been applied to 137 Cs and 239,240 Pu. Results are, in general, in good agreement with observations. - A model has been developed to simulate transport of suspended particulate matter in the Rhone River plume

  2. FOOTPRINT: A Screening Model for Estimating the Area of a Plume Produced From Gasoline Containing Ethanol

    Science.gov (United States)

    FOOTPRINT is a screening model used to estimate the length and surface area of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX) plumes in groundwater, produced from a gasoline spill that contains ethanol.

  3. HEDR model validation plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.; Gilbert, R.O.; Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.

    1993-06-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computational ''tools'' for estimating the possible radiation dose that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the planned activities to ''validate'' these tools. In the sense of the HEDR Project, ''validation'' is a process carried out by comparing computational model predictions with field observations and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the model

  4. A Plume Scale Model of Chlorinated Ethene Degradation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murray, Alexandra Marie; Broholm, Mette Martina; Badin, Alice

    leaked from a dry cleaning facility, and a 2 km plume extends from the source in an unconfined aquifer of homogenous fluvio-glacial sand. The area has significant iron deposits, most notably pyrite, which can abiotically degrade chlorinated ethenes. The source zone underwent thermal (steam) remediation...

  5. The importance of vertical resolution in the free troposphere for modeling intercontinental plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Jiawei; Jacob, Daniel J.; Eastham, Sebastian D.

    2018-05-01

    Chemical plumes in the free troposphere can preserve their identity for more than a week as they are transported on intercontinental scales. Current global models cannot reproduce this transport. The plumes dilute far too rapidly due to numerical diffusion in sheared flow. We show how model accuracy can be limited by either horizontal resolution (Δx) or vertical resolution (Δz). Balancing horizontal and vertical numerical diffusion, and weighing computational cost, implies an optimal grid resolution ratio (Δx / Δz)opt ˜ 1000 for simulating the plumes. This is considerably higher than current global models (Δx / Δz ˜ 20) and explains the rapid plume dilution in the models as caused by insufficient vertical resolution. Plume simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (GFDL-FV3) over a range of horizontal and vertical grid resolutions confirm this limiting behavior. Our highest-resolution simulation (Δx ≈ 25 km, Δz ≈ 80 m) preserves the maximum mixing ratio in the plume to within 35 % after 8 days in strongly sheared flow, a drastic improvement over current models. Adding free tropospheric vertical levels in global models is computationally inexpensive and would also improve the simulation of water vapor.

  6. The importance of vertical resolution in the free troposphere for modeling intercontinental plumes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Zhuang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Chemical plumes in the free troposphere can preserve their identity for more than a week as they are transported on intercontinental scales. Current global models cannot reproduce this transport. The plumes dilute far too rapidly due to numerical diffusion in sheared flow. We show how model accuracy can be limited by either horizontal resolution (Δx or vertical resolution (Δz. Balancing horizontal and vertical numerical diffusion, and weighing computational cost, implies an optimal grid resolution ratio (Δx ∕ Δzopt ∼ 1000 for simulating the plumes. This is considerably higher than current global models (Δx ∕ Δz ∼ 20 and explains the rapid plume dilution in the models as caused by insufficient vertical resolution. Plume simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (GFDL-FV3 over a range of horizontal and vertical grid resolutions confirm this limiting behavior. Our highest-resolution simulation (Δx ≈ 25 km, Δz  ≈  80 m preserves the maximum mixing ratio in the plume to within 35 % after 8 days in strongly sheared flow, a drastic improvement over current models. Adding free tropospheric vertical levels in global models is computationally inexpensive and would also improve the simulation of water vapor.

  7. Validation study of safety assessment model for radioactive waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munakata, Masahiro; Takeda, Seiji; Kimura, Hideo [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    2001-12-01

    The JAERI-AECL collaboration research program has been conducted to validate a groundwater flow and radionuclide transport models for safety assessment. JAERI have developed a geostatistical model for radionuclide transport through a heterogeneous geological media and verify using experimental results of field tracer tests. The simulated tracer plumes explain favorably the experimental tracer plumes. A regional groundwater flow and transport model using site-scale parameter obtained from tracer tests have been verified by comparing simulation results with observation ones of natural environmental tracer. (author)

  8. Groundwater Model Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed E. Hassan

    2006-01-24

    Models have an inherent uncertainty. The difficulty in fully characterizing the subsurface environment makes uncertainty an integral component of groundwater flow and transport models, which dictates the need for continuous monitoring and improvement. Building and sustaining confidence in closure decisions and monitoring networks based on models of subsurface conditions require developing confidence in the models through an iterative process. The definition of model validation is postulated as a confidence building and long-term iterative process (Hassan, 2004a). Model validation should be viewed as a process not an end result. Following Hassan (2004b), an approach is proposed for the validation process of stochastic groundwater models. The approach is briefly summarized herein and detailed analyses of acceptance criteria for stochastic realizations and of using validation data to reduce input parameter uncertainty are presented and applied to two case studies. During the validation process for stochastic models, a question arises as to the sufficiency of the number of acceptable model realizations (in terms of conformity with validation data). Using a hierarchical approach to make this determination is proposed. This approach is based on computing five measures or metrics and following a decision tree to determine if a sufficient number of realizations attain satisfactory scores regarding how they represent the field data used for calibration (old) and used for validation (new). The first two of these measures are applied to hypothetical scenarios using the first case study and assuming field data consistent with the model or significantly different from the model results. In both cases it is shown how the two measures would lead to the appropriate decision about the model performance. Standard statistical tests are used to evaluate these measures with the results indicating they are appropriate measures for evaluating model realizations. The use of validation

  9. DeepBlow - a Lagrangian plume model for deep water blowouts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johansen, Oeistein

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents a sub-sea blowout model designed with special emphasis on deep-water conditions. The model is an integral plume model based on a Lagrangian concept. This concept is applied to multiphase discharges in the formation of water, oil and gas in a stratified water column with variable currents. The gas may be converted to hydrate in combination with seawater, dissolved into the plume water, or leaking out of the plume due to the slip between rising gas bubbles and the plume trajectory. Non-ideal behaviour of the gas is accounted for by the introduction of pressure- and temperature-dependent compressibility z-factor in the equation of state. A number of case studies are presented in the paper. One of the cases (blowout from 100 m depth) is compared with observations from a field experiment conducted in Norwegian waters in June 1996. The model results are found to compare favourably with the field observations when dissolution of gas into seawater is accounted in the model. For discharges at intermediate to shallow depths (100-250 m), the two major processes limiting plume rise will be: (a) dissolution of gas into ambient water, or (b) bubbles rising out of the inclined plume. These processes tend to be self-enforcing, i.e., when a gas is lost by either of these processes, plume rise tends to slow down and more time will be available for dissolution. For discharges in deep waters (700-1500 m depth), hydrate formation is found to be a dominating process in limiting plume rise. (Author)

  10. PLUME-MoM 1.0: a new 1-D model of volcanic plumes based on the method of moments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de'Michieli Vitturi, M.; Neri, A.; Barsotti, S.

    2015-05-01

    In this paper a new mathematical model for volcanic plumes, named PlumeMoM, is presented. The model describes the steady-state 1-D dynamics of the plume in a 3-D coordinate system, accounting for continuous variability in particle distribution of the pyroclastic mixture ejected at the vent. Volcanic plumes are composed of pyroclastic particles of many different sizes ranging from a few microns up to several centimeters and more. Proper description of such a multiparticle nature is crucial when quantifying changes in grain-size distribution along the plume and, therefore, for better characterization of source conditions of ash dispersal models. The new model is based on the method of moments, which allows description of the pyroclastic mixture dynamics not only in the spatial domain but also in the space of properties of the continuous size-distribution of the particles. This is achieved by formulation of fundamental transport equations for the multiparticle mixture with respect to the different moments of the grain-size distribution. Different formulations, in terms of the distribution of the particle number, as well as of the mass distribution expressed in terms of the Krumbein log scale, are also derived. Comparison between the new moments-based formulation and the classical approach, based on the discretization of the mixture in N discrete phases, shows that the new model allows the same results to be obtained with a significantly lower computational cost (particularly when a large number of discrete phases is adopted). Application of the new model, coupled with uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analyses, enables investigation of the response of four key output variables (mean and standard deviation (SD) of the grain-size distribution at the top of the plume, plume height and amount of mass lost by the plume during the ascent) to changes in the main input parameters (mean and SD) characterizing the pyroclastic mixture at the base of the plume

  11. Modeling Macro- and Micro-Scale Turbulent Mixing and Chemistry in Engine Exhaust Plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menon, Suresh

    1998-01-01

    Simulation of turbulent mixing and chemical processes in the near-field plume and plume-vortex regimes has been successfully carried out recently using a reduced gas phase kinetics mechanism which substantially decreased the computational cost. A detailed mechanism including gas phase HOx, NOx, and SOx chemistry between the aircraft exhaust and the ambient air in near-field aircraft plumes is compiled. A reduced mechanism capturing the major chemical pathways is developed. Predictions by the reduced mechanism are found to be in good agreement with those by the detailed mechanism. With the reduced chemistry, the computer CPU time is saved by a factor of more than 3.5 for the near-field plume modeling. Distributions of major chemical species are obtained and analyzed. The computed sensitivities of major species with respect to reaction step are deduced for identification of the dominant gas phase kinetic reaction pathways in the jet plume. Both the near field plume and the plume-vortex regimes were investigated using advanced mixing models. In the near field, a stand-alone mixing model was used to investigate the impact of turbulent mixing on the micro- and macro-scale mixing processes using a reduced reaction kinetics model. The plume-vortex regime was simulated using a large-eddy simulation model. Vortex plume behind Boeing 737 and 747 aircraft was simulated along with relevant kinetics. Many features of the computed flow field show reasonable agreement with data. The entrainment of the engine plumes into the wing tip vortices and also the partial detrainment of the plume were numerically captured. The impact of fluid mechanics on the chemical processes was also studied. Results show that there are significant differences between spatial and temporal simulations especially in the predicted SO3 concentrations. This has important implications for the prediction of sulfuric acid aerosols in the wake and may partly explain the discrepancy between past numerical studies

  12. Expansion dynamics and equilibrium conditions in a laser ablation plume of lithium: Modeling and experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stapleton, M.W.; McKiernan, A.P.; Mosnier, J.-P.

    2005-01-01

    The gas dynamics and atomic kinetics of a laser ablation plume of lithium, expanding adiabatically in vacuum, are included in a numerical model, using isothermal and isentropic self-similar analytical solutions and steady-state collisional radiative equations, respectively. Measurements of plume expansion dynamics using ultrafast imaging for various laser wavelengths (266-1064 nm), fluences (2-6.5 J cm -2 ), and spot sizes (50-1000 μm) are performed to provide input parameters for the model and, thereby, study the influence of laser spot size, wavelength, and fluence, respectively, on both the plume expansion dynamics and atomic kinetics. Target recoil pressure, which clearly affects plume dynamics, is included in the model. The effects of laser wavelength and spot size on plume dynamics are discussed in terms of plasma absorption of laser light. A transition from isothermal to isentropic behavior for spot sizes greater than 50 μm is clearly evidenced. Equilibrium conditions are found to exist only up to 300 ns after the plume creation, while complete local thermodynamic equilibrium is found to be confined to the very early parts of the expansion

  13. Modeling investigation of the nutrient and phytoplankton variability in the Chesapeake Bay outflow plume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Long; Xia, Meng

    2018-03-01

    The Chesapeake Bay outflow plume (CBOP) is the mixing zone between Chesapeake Bay and less eutrophic continental shelf waters. Variations in phytoplankton distribution in the CBOP are critical to the fish nursery habitat quality and ecosystem health; thus, an existing hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model for the bay and the adjacent coastal ocean was applied to understand the nutrient and phytoplankton variability in the plume and the dominant environmental drivers. The simulated nutrient and chlorophyll a distribution agreed well with field data and real-time satellite imagery. Based on the model calculation, the net dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and phosphorus (DIP) flux at the bay mouth was seaward and landward during 2003-2012, respectively. The CBOP was mostly nitrogen-limited because of the relatively low estuarine DIN export. The highest simulated phytoplankton biomass generally occurred in spring in the near field of the plume. Streamflow variations could regulate the estuarine residence time, and thus modulate nutrient export and phytoplankton biomass in the plume area; in comparison, changing nutrient loading with fixed streamflow had a less extensive impact, especially in the offshore and far-field regions. Correlation analyses and numerical experiments revealed that southerly winds on the shelf were effective in promoting the offshore plume expansion and phytoplankton accumulation. Climate change including precipitation and wind pattern shifts is likely to complicate the driving mechanisms of phytoplankton variability in the plume region.

  14. Plume-exit modeling to determine cloud condensation nuclei activity of aerosols from residential biofuel combustion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mena, Francisco; Bond, Tami C.; Riemer, Nicole

    2017-08-01

    Residential biofuel combustion is an important source of aerosols and gases in the atmosphere. The change in cloud characteristics due to biofuel burning aerosols is uncertain, in part, due to the uncertainty in the added number of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) from biofuel burning. We provide estimates of the CCN activity of biofuel burning aerosols by explicitly modeling plume dynamics (coagulation, condensation, chemical reactions, and dilution) in a young biofuel burning plume from emission until plume exit, defined here as the condition when the plume reaches ambient temperature and specific humidity through entrainment. We found that aerosol-scale dynamics affect CCN activity only during the first few seconds of evolution, after which the CCN efficiency reaches a constant value. Homogenizing factors in a plume are co-emission of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) or emission at small particle sizes; SVOC co-emission can be the main factor determining plume-exit CCN for hydrophobic or small particles. Coagulation limits emission of CCN to about 1016 per kilogram of fuel. Depending on emission factor, particle size, and composition, some of these particles may not activate at low supersaturation (ssat). Hygroscopic Aitken-mode particles can contribute to CCN through self-coagulation but have a small effect on the CCN activity of accumulation-mode particles, regardless of composition differences. Simple models (monodisperse coagulation and average hygroscopicity) can be used to estimate plume-exit CCN within about 20 % if particles are unimodal and have homogeneous composition, or when particles are emitted in the Aitken mode even if they are not homogeneous. On the other hand, if externally mixed particles are emitted in the accumulation mode without SVOCs, an average hygroscopicity overestimates emitted CCN by up to a factor of 2. This work has identified conditions under which particle populations become more homogeneous during plume processes. This

  15. Automated Generation of 3D Volcanic Gas Plume Models for Geobrowsers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, T. E.; Burton, M.; Pyle, D. M.

    2007-12-01

    A network of five UV spectrometers on Etna automatically gathers column amounts of SO2 during daylight hours. Near-simultaneous scans from adjacent spectrometers, comprising 210 column amounts in total, are then converted to 2D slices showing the spatial distribution of the gas by tomographic reconstruction. The trajectory of the plume is computed using an automatically-submitted query to NOAA's HYSPLIT Trajectory Model. This also provides local estimates of air temperature, which are used to determine the atmospheric stability and therefore the degree to which the plume is dispersed by turbulence. This information is sufficient to construct an animated sequence of models which show how the plume is advected and diffused over time. These models are automatically generated in the Collada Digital Asset Exchange format and combined into a single file which displays the evolution of the plume in Google Earth. These models are useful for visualising and predicting the shape and distribution of the plume for civil defence, to assist field campaigns and as a means of communicating some of the work of volcano observatories to the public. The Simultaneous Algebraic Reconstruction Technique is used to create the 2D slices. This is a well-known method, based on iteratively updating a forward model (from 2D distribution to column amounts). Because it is based on a forward model, it also provides a simple way to quantify errors.

  16. Infrared signature modelling of a rocket jet plume - comparison with flight measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rialland, V; Perez, P; Roblin, A; Guy, A; Gueyffier, D; Smithson, T

    2016-01-01

    The infrared signature modelling of rocket plumes is a challenging problem involving rocket geometry, propellant composition, combustion modelling, trajectory calculations, fluid mechanics, atmosphere modelling, calculation of gas and particles radiative properties and of radiative transfer through the atmosphere. This paper presents ONERA simulation tools chained together to achieve infrared signature prediction, and the comparison of the estimated and measured signatures of an in-flight rocket plume. We consider the case of a solid rocket motor with aluminized propellant, the Black Brant sounding rocket. The calculation case reproduces the conditions of an experimental rocket launch, performed at White Sands in 1997, for which we obtained high quality infrared signature data sets from DRDC Valcartier. The jet plume is calculated using an in-house CFD software called CEDRE. The plume infrared signature is then computed on the spectral interval 1900-5000 cm -1 with a step of 5 cm -1 . The models and their hypotheses are presented and discussed. Then the resulting plume properties, radiance and spectra are detailed. Finally, the estimated infrared signature is compared with the spectral imaging measurements. The discrepancies are analyzed and discussed. (paper)

  17. Radiative modeling and characterization of aerosol plumes hyper-spectral imagery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alakian, A.

    2008-03-01

    This thesis aims at characterizing aerosols from plumes (biomass burning, industrial discharges, etc.) with hyper-spectral imagery. We want to estimate the optical properties of emitted particles and also their micro-physical properties such as number, size distribution and composition. To reach our goal, we have built a forward semi-analytical model, named APOM (Aerosol Plume Optical Model), which allows to simulate the radiative effects of aerosol plumes in the spectral range [0,4-2,5 μm] for nadir viewing sensors. Mathematical formulation and model coefficients are obtained from simulations performed with the radiative transfer code COMANCHE. APOM is assessed on simulated data and proves to be accurate with modeling errors between 1% and 3%. Three retrieval methods using APOM have been developed: L-APOM, M-APOM and A-APOM. These methods take advantage of spectral and spatial dimensions in hyper-spectral images. L-APOM and M-APOM assume a priori knowledge on particles but can estimate their optical and micro-physical properties. Their performances on simulated data are quite promising. A-APOM method does not require any a priori knowledge on particles but only estimates their optical properties. However, it still needs improvements before being usable. On real images, inversion provides satisfactory results for plumes above water but meets some difficulties for plumes above vegetation, which underlines some possibilities of improvement for the retrieval algorithm. (author)

  18. Formation of mantle "lone plumes" in the global downwelling zone - A multiscale modelling of subduction-controlled plume generation beneath the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Nan; Li, Zheng-Xiang

    2018-01-01

    It has been established that almost all known mantle plumes since the Mesozoic formed above the two lower mantle large low shear velocity provinces (LLSVPs). The Hainan plume is one of the rare exceptions in that instead of rising above the LLSVPs, it is located within the broad global mantle downwelling zone, therefore classified as a "lone plume". Here, we use the Hainan plume example to investigate the feasibility of such lone plumes being generated by subducting slabs in the mantle downwelling zone using 3D geodynamic modelling. Our geodynamic model has a high-resolution regional domain embedded in a relatively low resolution global domain, which is set up in an adaptive-mesh-refined, 3D mantle convection code ASPECT (Advanced Solver for Problems in Earth's ConvecTion). We use a recently published plate motion model to define the top mechanical boundary condition. Our modelling results suggest that cold slabs under the present-day Eurasia, formed from the Mesozoic subduction and closure of the Tethys oceans, have prevented deep mantle hot materials from moving to the South China Sea from regions north or west of the South China Sea. From the east side, the Western Pacific subduction systems started to promote the formation of a lower-mantle thermal-chemical pile in the vicinity of the future South China Sea region since 70 Ma ago. As the top of this lower-mantle thermal-chemical pile rises, it first moved to the west, and finally rested beneath the South China Sea. The presence of a thermochemical layer (possible the D″ layer) in the model helps stabilizing the plume root. Our modelling is the first implementation of multi-scale mesh in the regional model. It has been proved to be an effective way of modelling regional dynamics within a global plate motion and mantle dynamics background.

  19. PIV Measurements of the CEV Hot Abort Motor Plume for CFD Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wernet, Mark; Wolter, John D.; Locke, Randy; Wroblewski, Adam; Childs, Robert; Nelson, Andrea

    2010-01-01

    NASA s next manned launch platform for missions to the moon and Mars are the Orion and Ares systems. Many critical aspects of the launch system performance are being verified using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) predictions. The Orion Launch Abort Vehicle (LAV) consists of a tower mounted tractor rocket tasked with carrying the Crew Module (CM) safely away from the launch vehicle in the event of a catastrophic failure during the vehicle s ascent. Some of the predictions involving the launch abort system flow fields produced conflicting results, which required further investigation through ground test experiments. Ground tests were performed to acquire data from a hot supersonic jet in cross-flow for the purpose of validating CFD turbulence modeling relevant to the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle (LAV). Both 2-component axial plane Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) and 3-component cross-stream Stereo Particle Image Velocimetry (SPIV) measurements were obtained on a model of an Abort Motor (AM). Actual flight conditions could not be simulated on the ground, so the highest temperature and pressure conditions that could be safely used in the test facility (nozzle pressure ratio 28.5 and a nozzle temperature ratio of 3) were used for the validation tests. These conditions are significantly different from those of the flight vehicle, but were sufficiently high enough to begin addressing turbulence modeling issues that predicated the need for the validation tests.

  20. Plume Tracker: Interactive mapping of volcanic sulfur dioxide emissions with high-performance radiative transfer modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Realmuto, Vincent J.; Berk, Alexander

    2016-11-01

    We describe the development of Plume Tracker, an interactive toolkit for the analysis of multispectral thermal infrared observations of volcanic plumes and clouds. Plume Tracker is the successor to MAP_SO2, and together these flexible and comprehensive tools have enabled investigators to map sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from a number of volcanoes with TIR data from a variety of airborne and satellite instruments. Our objective for the development of Plume Tracker was to improve the computational performance of the retrieval procedures while retaining the accuracy of the retrievals. We have achieved a 300 × improvement in the benchmark performance of the retrieval procedures through the introduction of innovative data binning and signal reconstruction strategies, and improved the accuracy of the retrievals with a new method for evaluating the misfit between model and observed radiance spectra. We evaluated the accuracy of Plume Tracker retrievals with case studies based on MODIS and AIRS data acquired over Sarychev Peak Volcano, and ASTER data acquired over Kilauea and Turrialba Volcanoes. In the Sarychev Peak study, the AIRS-based estimate of total SO2 mass was 40% lower than the MODIS-based estimate. This result was consistent with a 45% reduction in the AIRS-based estimate of plume area relative to the corresponding MODIS-based estimate. In addition, we found that our AIRS-based estimate agreed with an independent estimate, based on a competing retrieval technique, within a margin of ± 20%. In the Kilauea study, the ASTER-based concentration estimates from 21 May 2012 were within ± 50% of concurrent ground-level concentration measurements. In the Turrialba study, the ASTER-based concentration estimates on 21 January 2012 were in exact agreement with SO2 concentrations measured at plume altitude on 1 February 2012.

  1. Simulating Fine-Scale Marine Pollution Plumes for Autonomous Robotic Environmental Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Fahad

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Marine plumes exhibit characteristics such as intermittency, sinuous structure, shape and flow field coherency, and a time varying concentration profile. Due to the lack of experimental quantification of these characteristics for marine plumes, existing work often assumes marine plumes exhibit behavior similar to aerial plumes and are commonly modeled by filament based Lagrangian models. Our previous field experiments with Rhodamine dye plumes at Makai Research Pier at Oahu, Hawaii revealed that marine plumes show similar characteristics to aerial plumes qualitatively, but quantitatively they are disparate. Based on the field data collected, this paper presents a calibrated Eulerian plume model that exhibits the qualitative and quantitative characteristics exhibited by experimentally generated marine plumes. We propose a modified model with an intermittent source, and implement it in a Robot Operating System (ROS based simulator. Concentration time series of stationary sampling points and dynamic sampling points across cross-sections and plume fronts are collected and analyzed for statistical parameters of the simulated plume. These parameters are then compared with statistical parameters from experimentally generated plumes. The comparison validates that the simulated plumes exhibit fine-scale qualitative and quantitative characteristics similar to experimental plumes. The ROS plume simulator facilitates future evaluations of environmental monitoring strategies by marine robots, and is made available for community use.

  2. An Overview of Plume Tracker: Mapping Volcanic Emissions with Interactive Radiative Transfer Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Realmuto, V. J.; Berk, A.; Guiang, C.

    2014-12-01

    Infrared remote sensing is a vital tool for the study of volcanic plumes, and radiative transfer (RT) modeling is required to derive quantitative estimation of the sulfur dioxide (SO2), sulfate aerosol (SO4), and silicate ash (pulverized rock) content of these plumes. In the thermal infrared, we must account for the temperature, emissivity, and elevation of the surface beneath the plume, plume altitude and thickness, and local atmospheric temperature and humidity. Our knowledge of these parameters is never perfect, and interactive mapping allows us to evaluate the impact of these uncertainties on our estimates of plume composition. To enable interactive mapping, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory is collaborating with Spectral Sciences, Inc., (SSI) to develop the Plume Tracker toolkit. This project is funded by a NASA AIST Program Grant (AIST-11-0053) to SSI. Plume Tracker integrates (1) retrieval procedures for surface temperature and emissivity, SO2, NH3, or CH4 column abundance, and scaling factors for H2O vapor and O3 profiles, (2) a RT modeling engine based on MODTRAN, and (3) interactive visualization and analysis utilities under a single graphics user interface. The principal obstacle to interactive mapping is the computational overhead of the RT modeling engine. Under AIST-11-0053 we have achieved a 300-fold increase in the performance of the retrieval procedures through the use of indexed caches of model spectra, optimization of the minimization procedures, and scaling of the effects of surface temperature and emissivity on model radiance spectra. In the final year of AIST-11-0053 we will implement parallel processing to exploit multi-core CPUs and cluster computing, and optimize the RT engine to eliminate redundant calculations when iterating over a range of gas concentrations. These enhancements will result in an additional 8 - 12X increase in performance. In addition to the improvements in performance, we have improved the accuracy of the Plume Tracker

  3. A modified Gaussian model for the thermal plume from a ground-based heat source in a cross-wind

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selander, W.N.; Barry, P.J.; Robertson, E.

    1990-06-01

    An array of propane burners operating at ground level in a cross-wind was used as a heat source to establish a blown-over thermal plume. A three-dimensional array of thermocouples was used to continuously measure the plume temperature downwind from the source. The resulting data were used to correlate the parameters of a modified Gaussian model for plume rise and dispersion with source strength, wind speed, and atmospheric dispersion parameters

  4. Modeling Laser and e-Beam Generated Plasma-Plume Experiments Using LASNEX

    CERN Document Server

    Ho, D

    1999-01-01

    The hydrodynamics code LASNEX is used to model the laser and e-beam generated plasma-plume experiments. The laser used has a wavelength of 1 (micro)m and the FWHM spot size is 1 mm. The total laser energy is 160 mJ. The simulation shows that the plume expands at a velocity of about 6 cm/(micro)s. The e-beam generated from the Experimental Test Accelerator (ETA) has 5.5 MeV and FWHM spot size ranges from 2 to 3.3 mm. From the simulations, the plasma plume expansion velocity ranges from about 3 to 6 mm/(micro)s and the velocity increases with decreasing spot size. All the simulation results reported here are in close agreement with experimental data.

  5. Observation and modeling of the evolution of Texas power plant plumes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Zhou

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available During the second Texas Air Quality Study 2006 (TexAQS II, a full range of pollutants was measured by aircraft in eastern Texas during successive transects of power plant plumes (PPPs. A regional photochemical model is applied to simulate the physical and chemical evolution of the plumes. The observations reveal that SO2 and NOy were rapidly removed from PPPs on a cloudy day but not on the cloud-free days, indicating efficient aqueous processing of these compounds in clouds. The model reasonably represents observed NOx oxidation and PAN formation in the plumes, but fails to capture the rapid loss of SO2 (0.37 h−1 and NOy (0.24 h−1 in some plumes on the cloudy day. Adjustments to the cloud liquid water content (QC and the default metal concentrations in the cloud module could explain some of the SO2 loss. However, NOy in the model was insensitive to QC. These findings highlight cloud processing as a major challenge to atmospheric models. Model-based estimates of ozone production efficiency (OPE in PPPs are 20–50 % lower than observation-based estimates for the cloudy day.

  6. Footprint (A Screening Model for Estimating the Area of a Plume Produced from Gasoline Containing Ethanol

    Science.gov (United States)

    FOOTPRINT is a simple and user-friendly screening model to estimate the length and surface area of BTEX plumes in ground water produced from a spill of gasoline that contains ethanol. Ethanol has a potential negative impact on the natural biodegradation of BTEX compounds in groun...

  7. Modeling Emissions and Vertical Plume Transport of Crop Residue Burning Experiments in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, L.; Baker, K. R.; Napelenok, S. L.; Pouliot, G.; Elleman, R. A.; ONeill, S. M.; Urbanski, S. P.; Wong, D. C.

    2017-12-01

    Crop residue burning has long been a common practice in agriculture with the smoke emissions from the burning linked to negative health impacts. A field study in eastern Washington and northern Idaho in August 2013 consisted of multiple burns of well characterized fuels with nearby surface and aerial measurements including trace species concentrations, plume rise height and boundary layer structure. The chemical transport model CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality Model) was used to assess the fire emissions and subsequent vertical plume transport. The study first compared assumptions made by the 2014 National Emission Inventory approach for crop residue burning with the fuel and emissions information obtained from the field study and then investigated the sensitivity of modeled carbon monoxide (CO) and PM2.5 concentrations to these different emission estimates and plume rise treatment with CMAQ. The study suggests that improvements to the current parameterizations are needed in order for CMAQ to reliably reproduce smoke plumes from burning. In addition, there is enough variability in the smoke emissions, stemming from variable field-specific information such as field size, that attempts to model crop residue burning should use field-specific information whenever possible.

  8. Reactive transport modelling of biogeochemical processes and carbon isotope geochemistry inside a landfill leachate plume.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Breukelen, B.M.; Griffioen, J.; Roling, W.F.M.; van Verseveld, H.W.

    2004-01-01

    The biogeochemical processes governing leachate attenuation inside a landfill leachate plume (Banisveld, the Netherlands) were revealed and quantified using the 1D reactive transport model PHREEQC-2. Biodegradation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was simulated assuming first-order oxidation of two

  9. A comparison of the Gaussian Plume models of Pasquill and Smith

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barker, C.D.

    1978-03-01

    The Gaussian Plume models of Pasquill and Smith are compared over the full range of atmospheric stability for both short and continuous releases of material. For low level releases the two models compare well (to within a factor of approximately 2) except for very unstable conditions. The agreement between the two models for high level sources is not so good. It is concluded that the two Gaussian models are cheap and simple to use, but may require experimental verification in specific applications. (author)

  10. User's manual for DWNWND: an interactive Gaussian plume atmospheric transport model with eight dispersion parameter options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fields, D.E.; Miller, C.W.

    1980-05-01

    The most commonly used approach for estimating the atmospheric concentration and deposition of material downwind from its point of release is the Gaussian plume atmospheric dispersion model. Two of the critical parameters in this model are sigma/sub y/ and sigma/sub z/, the horizontal and vertical dispersion parameters, respectively. A number of different sets of values for sigma/sub y/ and sigma/sub z/ have been determined empirically for different release heights and meteorological and terrain conditions. The computer code DWNWND, described in this report, is an interactive implementation of the Gaussian plume model. This code allows the user to specify any one of eight different sets of the empirically determined dispersion paramters. Using the selected dispersion paramters, ground-level normalized exposure estimates are made at any specified downwind distance. Computed values may be corrected for plume depletion due to deposition and for plume settling due to gravitational fall. With this interactive code, the user chooses values for ten parameters which define the source, the dispersion and deposition process, and the sampling point. DWNWND is written in FORTRAN for execution on a PDP-10 computer, requiring less than one second of central processor unit time for each simulation

  11. Mathematical model of drift deposition from a bifurcated cooling tower plume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, N.C.J.; Jung, L.

    1978-01-01

    Cooling tower drift deposition modeling has been extended by including centrifugal force induced through plume bifurcation in a crosswind as a mechanism for drift droplet removal from the plume. The model, in its current state of development, is capable of predicting the trajectory of a single droplet from the stage of strong interaction with the vortex field soon after droplet emission at the tower top through the stage of droplet evaporation in an unsaturated atmosphere after droplet breakaway from the plume. The computer program developed from the mathematical formulation has been used to explore the dependency of the droplet trajectory on droplet size, vortex strength, point of droplet emission, drag coefficient, droplet efflux speed, and ambient conditions. A specific application to drift from a mechanical-draft cooling tower (for a wind speed twice the efflux speed, a relative humidity of 70 per cent, and an initial droplet radius of 100 μm) showed the droplet to follow a helical trajectory within the plume, with breakaway occurring at 2.5 tower diameters downwind and ground impact of the droplet (reduced through evaporation to 55 μm radius) at 11 tower diameters

  12. Modeling and Mechanisms of Intercontinental Transport of Biomass-Burning Plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, J. S.; Westphal, D. L.; Christopher, S. A.; Prins, E. M.; Justice, C. O.; Richardson, K. A.; Reid, E. A.; Eck, T. F.

    2003-12-01

    With the aid of fire products from GOES and MODIS, the NRL Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) successfully monitors and predicts the formation and transport of massive smoke plumes between the continents in near real time. The goal of this system, formed under the joint Navy, NASA, and NOAA sponsored Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) project, is to provide 5 day forecasts of large biomass burning plumes and evaluate impacts on air quality, visibility, and regional radiative balance. In this paper we discuss and compare the mechanisms of intercontinental transport from the three most important sources in the world prone to long range advection: Africa, South/Central America, and Siberia. We demonstrate how these regions impact neighboring continents. As the meteorology of these three regions are distinct, differences in transport phenomenon subsequently result, particularly with respect to vertical distribution. Specific examples will be given on prediction and the impact of Siberian and Central American smoke plumes on the United States as well as transport phenomena from Africa to Australia. We present rules of thumb for radiation and air quality impacts. We also model clear sky bias (both positive and negative) with respect to MODIS data, and show the frequency to which frontal advection of smoke plumes masks remote sensing retrievals of smoke optical depth.

  13. The validation and analysis of novel stereo-derived smoke plume products from AATSR and their application to fire events from the 2008 Russian fire season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, D.; Muller, J.-P.; Yershov, V.

    2012-04-01

    Biomass burning events in Boreal forests generate significant amounts of important greenhouse gases; including CO2, CO, NOx [1,2]. When the injection height is above the boundary layer (BL), the lifespan of these chemicals is greatly extended, as is their spatial distribution [2]. Typically, in chemical transport models (CTMs), BL injection heights are simplified and assumed to be constant. This is in part due to poor data availability. This leads to a reduction in the accuracy of the distribution outputs from such models. To generate better smoke-plume injection height (SPIH) inputs into CTMs, measurements need to be made of smoke plume heights, which can be used as a proxy for aerosol injection height into the atmosphere. One method of measuring SPIH is through stereo-photogrammetry [5], originally applied to optically thick clouds [3,4]. Here, we present validation and analysis of the M6 stereo matching method [5] for the determination of SPIHs applied to AATSR. It is referred to as M6 due to a shared heritage with the other M-series matchers [3,4]. M6 utilizes novel normalization and matching techniques to generate improved results, in terms of coverage and accuracy, over these afore-referenced matchers of similar type. Validation is carried out against independent, coincident and higher resolution SPIH measurements obtained from both the CALIOP instrument carried onboard the NASA-CNES CALIPSO satellite and also against measurements from the MISR Smoke Plume Product obtained by manual measurements using the MINX system (http://www.openchannelsoftware.com/projects/MINX) with the MISR instrument onboard the NASA satellite Terra. The results of this inter-comparison show an excellent agreement between AATSR and the CALIOP and MISR measurements. Further an inter-comparison between a heritage M-series matcher, M4 [3], also against MISR data demonstrates the significant improvement in SPIH generated by M6. [1] Crutzen, P. J., L. E. Heidt, et al. (1979). "Biomass

  14. Source-term development for a contaminant plume for use by multimedia risk assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, Gene; McDonald, John P.; Taira, Randal Y.; Gnanapragasam, Emmanuel K.; Yu, Charley; Lew, Christine S.; Mills, William B.

    1999-01-01

    Multimedia modelers from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) are collaborating to conduct a comprehensive and quantitative benchmarking analysis of four intermedia models: DOE's Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS), EPA's MMSOILS, EPA's PRESTO, and DOE's RESidual RADioactivity (RESRAD). These models represent typical analytically, semi-analytically, and empirically based tools that are utilized in human risk and endangerment assessments for use at installations containing radioactive and/or hazardous contaminants. Although the benchmarking exercise traditionally emphasizes the application and comparison of these models, the establishment of a Conceptual Site Model (CSM) should be viewed with equal importance. This paper reviews an approach for developing a CSM of an existing, real-world, Sr-90 plume at DOE's Hanford installation in Richland, Washington, for use in a multimedia-based benchmarking exercise bet ween MEPAS, MMSOILS, PRESTO, and RESRAD. In an unconventional move for analytically based modeling, the benchmarking exercise will begin with the plume as the source of contamination. The source and release mechanism are developed and described within the context of performing a preliminary risk assessment utilizing these analytical models. By beginning with the plume as the source term, this paper reviews a typical process and procedure an analyst would follow in developing a CSM for use in a preliminary assessment using this class of analytical tool

  15. Water Resources Research Program. Surface thermal plumes: evaluation of mathematical models for the near and complete field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunn, W.E.; Policastro, A.J.; Paddock, R.A.

    1975-08-01

    This report evaluates mathematical models that may be used to predict the flow and temperature distributions resulting from heated surface discharges from power-plant outfalls. Part One discusses the basic physics of surface-plume dispersion and provides a critical review of 11 of the most popular and promising plume models developed to predict the near- and complete-field plume. Part Two compares predictions from the models to prototype data, laboratory data, or both. Part Two also provides a generic discussion of the issues surrounding near- and complete-field modeling. The principal conclusion of the report is that the available models, in their present stage of development, may be used to give only general estimates of plume characteristics; precise predictions are not currently possible. The Shirazi-Davis and Pritchard (No. 1) models appear superior to the others tested and are capable of correctly predicting general plume characteristics. (The predictions show roughly factor-of-two accuracy in centerline distance to a given isotherm, factor-of-two accuracy in plume width, and factor-of-five accuracy in isotherm areas.) The state of the art can best be improved by pursuing basic laboratory studies of plume dispersion along with further development of numerical-modeling techniques

  16. The influence of model resolution on ozone in industrial volatile organic compound plumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Barron H; Jeffries, Harvey E; Kim, Byeong-Uk; Vizuete, William G

    2010-09-01

    Regions with concentrated petrochemical industrial activity (e.g., Houston or Baton Rouge) frequently experience large, localized releases of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Aircraft measurements suggest these released VOCs create plumes with ozone (O3) production rates 2-5 times higher than typical urban conditions. Modeling studies found that simulating high O3 productions requires superfine (1-km) horizontal grid cell size. Compared with fine modeling (4-kmin), the superfine resolution increases the peak O3 concentration by as much as 46%. To understand this drastic O3 change, this study quantifies model processes for O3 and "odd oxygen" (Ox) in both resolutions. For the entire plume, the superfine resolution increases the maximum O3 concentration 3% but only decreases the maximum Ox concentration 0.2%. The two grid sizes produce approximately equal Ox mass but by different reaction pathways. Derived sensitivity to oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and VOC emissions suggests resolution-specific sensitivity to NOx and VOC emissions. Different sensitivity to emissions will result in different O3 responses to subsequently encountered emissions (within the city or downwind). Sensitivity of O3 to emission changes also results in different simulated O3 responses to the same control strategies. Sensitivity of O3 to NOx and VOC emission changes is attributed to finer resolved Eulerian grid and finer resolved NOx emissions. Urban NOx concentration gradients are often caused by roadway mobile sources that would not typically be addressed with Plume-in-Grid models. This study shows that grid cell size (an artifact of modeling) influences simulated control strategies and could bias regulatory decisions. Understanding the dynamics of VOC plume dependence on grid size is the first step toward providing more detailed guidance for resolution. These results underscore VOC and NOx resolution interdependencies best addressed by finer resolution. On the basis of these results, the

  17. Water Resources Research Program. Surface thermal plumes: evaluation of mathematical models for the near and complete field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunn, W.E.; Policastro, A.J.; Paddock, R.A.

    1975-05-01

    This report evaluates mathematical models that may be used to predict the flow and temperature distributions resulting from heated surface discharges from power-plant outfalls. Part One discusses the basic physics of surface-plume dispersion and provides a critical review of 11 of the most popular and promising plume models developed to predict the near- and complete-field plume. The principal conclusion of the report is that the available models, in their present stage of development, may be used to give only general estimates of plume characteristics; precise predictions are not currently possible. The Shirazi-Davis and Pritchard (No. 1) models appear superior to the others tested and are capable of correctly predicting general plume characteristics. (The predictions show roughly factor-of-two accuracy in centerline distance to a given isotherm, factor-of-two accuracy in plume width, and factor-of-five accuracy in isotherm areas.) The state of the art can best be improved by pursuing basic laboratory studies of plume dispersion along with further development of numerical-modeling techniques

  18. Visual plumes coastal dispersion modeling in southwest Sabah ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In theory, the dilution capacity of open waters, particularly coastal areas, straits and oceans are enormous. This means that for surface and sub-merged ... Prior to the modeling exercise, field data pertaining to ambient water quality, hydraulic characteristics and tide patterns were collected. The modeling results indicated that ...

  19. Propagation of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in an integral oil-gas plume model

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Shitao

    2016-05-27

    Polynomial Chaos expansions are used to analyze uncertainties in an integral oil-gas plume model simulating the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The study focuses on six uncertain input parameters—two entrainment parameters, the gas to oil ratio, two parameters associated with the droplet-size distribution, and the flow rate—that impact the model\\'s estimates of the plume\\'s trap and peel heights, and of its various gas fluxes. The ranges of the uncertain inputs were determined by experimental data. Ensemble calculations were performed to construct polynomial chaos-based surrogates that describe the variations in the outputs due to variations in the uncertain inputs. The surrogates were then used to estimate reliably the statistics of the model outputs, and to perform an analysis of variance. Two experiments were performed to study the impacts of high and low flow rate uncertainties. The analysis shows that in the former case the flow rate is the largest contributor to output uncertainties, whereas in the latter case, with the uncertainty range constrained by aposteriori analyses, the flow rate\\'s contribution becomes negligible. The trap and peel heights uncertainties are then mainly due to uncertainties in the 95% percentile of the droplet size and in the entrainment parameters.

  20. Modeling of Heat Transfer and Ablation of Refractory Material Due to Rocket Plume Impingement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Michael F.; Vu, Bruce T.

    2012-01-01

    CR Tech's Thermal Desktop-SINDA/FLUINT software was used in the thermal analysis of a flame deflector design for Launch Complex 39B at Kennedy Space Center, Florida. The analysis of the flame deflector takes into account heat transfer due to plume impingement from expected vehicles to be launched at KSC. The heat flux from the plume was computed using computational fluid dynamics provided by Ames Research Center in Moffet Field, California. The results from the CFD solutions were mapped onto a 3-D Thermal Desktop model of the flame deflector using the boundary condition mapping capabilities in Thermal Desktop. The ablation subroutine in SINDA/FLUINT was then used to model the ablation of the refractory material.

  1. Plume rise from stacks with scrubbers: a state-of-the-art review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schatzmann, M.; Policastro, A.J.

    1984-01-01

    The state of the art of predicting plume rise from stacks with scrubbers is evaluated critically. The significant moisture content of the scrubbed plume upon exit leads to important thermodynamic effects during plume rise that are unaccounted for in the usual dry plume rise theories. For example, under conditionally unstable atmospheres, a wet scrubbed plume treated as completely dry acts as if the atmosphere were stable, whereas in reality the scrubbed plume behaves instead as if the atmosphere were unstable. Even the use of moist plume models developed for application to cooling tower plume rise is not valid since these models 1) employ the Boussinesq approximation, 2) use a number of additional simplifying approximations that require small exit temperature differences between tower exit and ambient temperatures, and 3) are not calibrated to stack data

  2. Simulation of Mexico City plumes during the MIRAGE-Mex field campaign using the WRF-Chem model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Tie

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The quantification of tropospheric O3 production in the downwind of the Mexico City plume is a major objective of the MIRAGE-Mex field campaign. We used a regional chemistry-transport model (WRF-Chem to predict the distribution of O3 and its precursors in Mexico City and the surrounding region during March 2006, and compared the model with in-situ aircraft measurements of O3, CO, VOCs, NOx, and NOy concentrations. The comparison shows that the model is capable of capturing the timing and location of the measured city plumes, and the calculated variability along the flights is generally consistent with the measured results, showing a rapid increase in O3 and its precursors when city plumes are detected. However, there are some notable differences between the calculated and measured values, suggesting that, during transport from the surface of the city to the outflow plume, ozone mixing ratios are underestimated by about 0–25% during different flights. The calculated O3-NOx, O3-CO, and O3-NOz correlations generally agree with the measured values, and the analyses of these correlations suggest that photochemical O3 production continues in the plume downwind of the city (aged plume, adding to the O3 already produced in the city and exported with the plume. The model is also used to quantify the contributions to OH reactivity from various compounds in the aged plume. This analysis suggests that oxygenated organics (OVOCs have the highest OH reactivity and play important roles for the O3 production in the aging plume. Furthermore, O3 production per NOx molecule consumed (O3 production efficiency is more efficient in the aged plume than in the young plume near the city. The major contributor to the high O3 production efficiency in the aged plume is the

  3. Modeling the Response of Primary Production and Sedimentation to Variable Nitrate Loading in the Mississippi River Plume

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Green, Rebecca E; Breed, Greg A; Dagg, Michael J; Lohrenz, Steven E

    2008-01-01

    ...% reduction in annual nitrogen discharge into the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an ecosystem model for the Mississippi River plume to investigate the response of organic matter production and sedimentation to variable nitrate loading...

  4. A New GPU-Enabled MODTRAN Thermal Model for the PLUME TRACKER Volcanic Emission Analysis Toolkit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, P. K.; Berk, A.; Guiang, C.; Kennett, R.; Perkins, T.; Realmuto, V. J.

    2013-12-01

    Real-time quantification of volcanic gaseous and particulate releases is important for (1) recognizing rapid increases in SO2 gaseous emissions which may signal an impending eruption; (2) characterizing ash clouds to enable safe and efficient commercial aviation; and (3) quantifying the impact of volcanic aerosols on climate forcing. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has developed state-of-the-art algorithms, embedded in their analyst-driven Plume Tracker toolkit, for performing SO2, NH3, and CH4 retrievals from remotely sensed multi-spectral Thermal InfraRed spectral imagery. While Plume Tracker provides accurate results, it typically requires extensive analyst time. A major bottleneck in this processing is the relatively slow but accurate FORTRAN-based MODTRAN atmospheric and plume radiance model, developed by Spectral Sciences, Inc. (SSI). To overcome this bottleneck, SSI in collaboration with JPL, is porting these slow thermal radiance algorithms onto massively parallel, relatively inexpensive and commercially-available GPUs. This paper discusses SSI's efforts to accelerate the MODTRAN thermal emission algorithms used by Plume Tracker. Specifically, we are developing a GPU implementation of the Curtis-Godson averaging and the Voigt in-band transmittances from near line center molecular absorption, which comprise the major computational bottleneck. The transmittance calculations were decomposed into separate functions, individually implemented as GPU kernels, and tested for accuracy and performance relative to the original CPU code. Speedup factors of 14 to 30× were realized for individual processing components on an NVIDIA GeForce GTX 295 graphics card with no loss of accuracy. Due to the separate host (CPU) and device (GPU) memory spaces, a redesign of the MODTRAN architecture was required to ensure efficient data transfer between host and device, and to facilitate high parallel throughput. Currently, we are incorporating the separate GPU kernels into a

  5. Mathematical modelling of thermal-plume interaction at Waterford Nuclear Power Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsai, S.Y.H.

    1981-01-01

    The Waldrop plume model was used to analyze the mixing and interaction of thermal effluents in the Mississippi River resulting from heated-water discharges from the Waterford Nuclear Power Station Unit 3 and from two nearby fossil-fueled power stations. The computer program of the model was modified and expanded to accommodate the multiple intake and discharge boundary conditions at the Waterford site. Numerical results of thermal-plume temperatures for individual and combined operation of the three power stations were obtained for typical low river flow (200,000 cfs) and maximum station operating conditions. The predicted temperature distributions indicated that the surface jet discharge from Waterford Unit 3 would interact with the thermal plumes produced by the two fossil-fueled stations. The results also showed that heat recirculation between the discharge of an upstream fossil-fueled plant and the intake of Waterford Unit 3 is to be expected. However, the resulting combined temperature distributions were found to be well within the thermal standards established by the state of Louisiana

  6. Validating Animal Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Atanasova

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, I respond to the challenge raised against contemporary experimental neurobiology according to which the field is in a state of crisis because of the multiple experimental protocols employed in different laboratories and strengthening their reliability that presumably preclude the validity of neurobiological knowledge. I provide an alternative account of experimentation in neurobiology which makes sense of its experimental practices. I argue that maintaining a multiplicity of experimental protocols and strengthening their reliability are well justified and they foster rather than preclude the validity of neurobiological knowledge. Thus, their presence indicates thriving rather than crisis of experimental neurobiology.

  7. Model analysis of the chemical conversion of exhaust species in the expanding plumes of subsonic aircraft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moellhoff, M.; Hendricks, J.; Lippert, E.; Petry, H. [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Geophysik und Meteorologie; Sausen, R. [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1997-12-31

    A box model and two different one-dimensional models are used to investigate the chemical conversion of exhaust species in the dispersing plume of a subsonic aircraft flying at cruise altitude. The effect of varying daytime of release as well as the impact of changing dispersion time is studied with special respect to the aircraft induced O{sub 3} production. Effective emission amounts for consideration in mesoscale and global models are calculated. Simulations with modified photolysis rates are performed to show the sensitivity of the photochemistry to the occurrence of cirrus clouds. (author) 8 refs.

  8. Model analysis of the chemical conversion of exhaust species in the expanding plumes of subsonic aircraft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moellhoff, M; Hendricks, J; Lippert, E; Petry, H [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Geophysik und Meteorologie; Sausen, R [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1998-12-31

    A box model and two different one-dimensional models are used to investigate the chemical conversion of exhaust species in the dispersing plume of a subsonic aircraft flying at cruise altitude. The effect of varying daytime of release as well as the impact of changing dispersion time is studied with special respect to the aircraft induced O{sub 3} production. Effective emission amounts for consideration in mesoscale and global models are calculated. Simulations with modified photolysis rates are performed to show the sensitivity of the photochemistry to the occurrence of cirrus clouds. (author) 8 refs.

  9. Nannofossils in 2011 El Hierro eruptive products reinstate plume model for Canary Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaczek, Kirsten; Troll, Valentin R.; Cachao, Mario; Ferreira, Jorge; Deegan, Frances M.; Carracedo, Juan Carlos; Soler, Vicente; Meade, Fiona C.; Burchardt, Steffi

    2015-01-01

    The origin and life cycle of ocean islands have been debated since the early days of Geology. In the case of the Canary archipelago, its proximity to the Atlas orogen led to initial fracture-controlled models for island genesis, while later workers cited a Miocene-Quaternary east-west age-progression to support an underlying mantle-plume. The recent discovery of submarine Cretaceous volcanic rocks near the westernmost island of El Hierro now questions this systematic age-progression within the archipelago. If a mantle-plume is indeed responsible for the Canaries, the onshore volcanic age-progression should be complemented by progressively younger pre-island sedimentary strata towards the west, however, direct age constraints for the westernmost pre-island sediments are lacking. Here we report on new age data obtained from calcareous nannofossils in sedimentary xenoliths erupted during the 2011 El Hierro events, which date the sub-island sedimentary rocks to between late Cretaceous and Pliocene in age. This age-range includes substantially younger pre-volcanic sedimentary rocks than the Jurassic to Miocene strata known from the older eastern islands and now reinstate the mantle-plume hypothesis as the most plausible explanation for Canary volcanism. The recently discovered Cretaceous submarine volcanic rocks in the region are, in turn, part of an older, fracture-related tectonic episode.

  10. Predictive geochemical modeling of contaminant concentrations in laboratory columns and in plumes migrating from uranium mill tailings waste impoundments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, S.R.; Martin, W.J.; Serne, R.J.

    1986-04-01

    A computer-based conceptual chemical model was applied to predict contaminant concentrations in plumes migrating from a uranium mill tailings waste impoundment. The solids chosen for inclusion in the conceptual model were selected based on reviews of the literature, on ion speciation/solubility calculations performed on the column effluent solutions and on mineralogical characterization of the contacted and uncontacted sediments. The mechanism of adsorption included in the conceptual chemical model was chosen based on results from semiselective extraction experiments and from mineralogical characterization procedures performed on the sediments. This conceptual chemical model was further developed and partially validated in laboratory experiments where assorted acidic uranium mill tailings solutions percolated through various sediments. This document contains the results of a partial field and laboratory validation (i.e., test of coherence) of this chemical model. Macro constituents (e.g., Ca, SO 4 , Al, Fe, and Mn) of the tailings solution were predicted closely by considering their concentrations to be controlled by the precipitation/dissolution of solid phases. Trace elements, however, were generally predicted to be undersaturated with respect to plausible solid phase controls. The concentration of several of the trace elements were closely predicted by considering their concentrations to be controlled by adsorption onto the amorphous iron oxyhydroxides that precipitated

  11. Descent and mixing of the overflow plume from Storfjord in Svalbard: an idealized numerical model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Fer

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Storfjorden in the Svalbard Archipelago is a sill-fjord that produces significant volumes of dense, brine-enriched shelf water through ice formation. The dense water produced in the fjord overflows the sill and can reach deep into the Fram Strait. For conditions corresponding to a moderate ice production year, the pathway of the overflow, its descent and evolving water mass properties due to mixing are investigated for the first time using a high resolution 3-D numerical model. An idealized modeling approach forced by a typical annual cycle of buoyancy forcing due to ice production is chosen in a terrain-following vertical co-ordinate. Comparison with observational data, including hydrography, fine resolution current measurements and direct turbulence measurements using a microstructure profiler, gives confidence on the model performance. The model eddy diffusivity profiles contrasted to those inferred from the turbulence measurements give confidence on the skill of the Mellor Yamada scheme in representing sub-grid scale mixing for the Storfjorden overflow, and probably for gravity current modeling, in general. The Storfjorden overflow is characterized by low Froude number dynamics except at the shelf break where the plume narrows, accelerates with speed reaching 0.6 m s−1, yielding local Froude number in excess of unity. The volume flux of the plume increases by five-fold from the sill to downstream of the shelf-break. Rotational hydraulic control is not applicable for transport estimates at the sill using upstream basin information. To the leading order, geostrophy establishes the lateral slope of the plume interface at the sill. This allows for a transport estimate that is consistent with the model results by evaluating a weir relation at the sill.

  12. Implementation of a micro-physical scheme for warm clouds in the meteorological model 'MERCURE': Application to cooling tower plumes and to orographic precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouzereau, Emmanuel

    2004-01-01

    A two-moment semi-spectral warm micro-physical scheme has been implemented inside the meteorological model 'MERCURE'. A new formulation of the buoyancy flux () is proposed, which is coherent with the corrigendum of Mellor (1977) but differs from Bougeault (1981). The non-precipitating cloud microphysics is validated by comparing the numerical simulations of fifteen cases of cooling tower plumes with data from a measurement campaign in Bugey in 1980. Satisfactory results are obtained on the plumes shape, on the temperature and vertical velocity fields and on the droplets spectrums, although the liquid water contents tend to be overestimated. The precipitating cloud microphysics is tested by reproducing the academical cases of orographic precipitation of Chaumerliac et al. (1987) and Richard and Chaumerliac (1989). The simulations allow a check of the action of different micro-physical terms. (author) [fr

  13. A regional scale model for ozone in the United States with subgrid representation of urban and power plant plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sillman, S.; Logan, J.A.; Wofsy, S.C.

    1990-01-01

    A new approach to modeling regional air chemistry is presented for application to industrialized regions such as the continental US. Rural chemistry and transport are simulated using a coarse grid, while chemistry and transport in urban and power plant plumes are represented by detailed subgrid models. Emissions from urban and power plant sources are processed in generalized plumes where chemistry and dilution proceed for 8-12 hours before mixing with air in a large resolution element. A realistic fraction of pollutants reacts under high-NO x conditions, and NO x is removed significantly before dispersal. Results from this model are compared with results from grid odels that do not distinguish plumes and with observational data defining regional ozone distributions. Grid models with coarse resolution are found to artificially disperse NO x over rural areas, therefore overestimating rural levels of both NO x and O 3 . Regional net ozone production is too high in coarse grid models, because production of O 3 is more efficient per molecule of NO x in the low-concentration regime of rural areas than in heavily polluted plumes from major emission sources. Ozone levels simulated by this model are shown to agree with observations in urban plumes and in rural regions. The model reproduces accurately average regional and peak ozone concentrations observed during a 4-day ozone episode. Computational costs for the model are reduced 25-to 100-fold as compared to fine-mesh models

  14. Active space of pheromone plume and its relationship to effective attraction radius in applied models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byers, John A

    2008-09-01

    The release rate of a semiochemical lure that attracts flying insects has a specific effective attraction radius (EAR) that corresponds to the lure's orientation response strength. EAR is defined as the radius of a passive sphere that intercepts the same number of insects as a semiochemical-baited trap. It is estimated by calculating the ratio of trap catches in the field in baited and unbaited traps and the interception area of the unbaited trap. EAR serves as a standardized method for comparing the attractive strengths of lures that is independent of population density. In two-dimensional encounter rate models that are used to describe insect mass trapping and mating disruption, a circular EAR (EAR(c)) describes a key parameter that affects catch or influence by pheromone in the models. However, the spherical EAR, as measured in the field, should be transformed to an EAR(c) for appropriate predictions in such models. The EAR(c) is calculated as (pi/2EAR(2))/F (L), where F (L) is the effective thickness of the flight layer where the insect searches. F (L) was estimated from catches of insects (42 species in the orders Coleoptera, Lepidoptera, Diptera, Hemiptera, and Thysanoptera) on traps at various heights as reported in the literature. The EAR(c) was proposed further as a simple but equivalent alternative to simulations of highly complex active-space plumes with variable response surfaces that have proven exceedingly difficult to quantify in nature. This hypothesis was explored in simulations where flying insects, represented as coordinate points, moved about in a correlated random walk in an area that contained a pheromone plume, represented as a sector of active space composed of a capture probability surface of variable complexity. In this plume model, catch was monitored at a constant density of flying insects and then compared to simulations in which a circular EAR(c) was enlarged until an equivalent rate was caught. This demonstrated that there is a

  15. Modelling the possible interaction between edge-driven convection and the Canary Islands mantle plume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negredo, A. M.; Rodríguez-González, J.; Fullea, J.; Van Hunen, J.

    2017-12-01

    The close location between many hotspots and the edges of cratonic lithosphere has led to the hypothesis that these hotspots could be explained by small-scale mantle convection at the edge of cratons (Edge Driven Convection, EDC). The Canary Volcanic Province hotspot represents a paradigmatic example of this situation due to its close location to the NW edge of the African Craton. Geochemical evidence, prominent low seismic velocity anomalies in the upper and lower mantle, and the rough NE-SW age-progression of volcanic centers consistently point out to a deep-seated mantle plume as the origin of the Canary Volcanic Province. It has been hypothesized that the plume material could be affected by upper mantle convection caused by the thermal contrast between thin oceanic lithosphere and thick (cold) African craton. Deflection of upwelling blobs due to convection currents would be responsible for the broader and more irregular pattern of volcanism in the Canary Province compared to the Madeira Province. In this study we design a model setup inspired on this scenario to investigate the consequences of possible interaction between ascending mantle plumes and EDC. The Finite Element code ASPECT is used to solve convection in a 2D box. The compositional field and melt fraction distribution are also computed. Free slip along all boundaries and constant temperature at top and bottom boundaries are assumed. The initial temperature distribution assumes a small long-wavelength perturbation. The viscosity structure is based on a thick cratonic lithosphere progressively varying to a thin, or initially inexistent, oceanic lithosphere. The effects of assuming different rheologies, as well as steep or gradual changes in lithospheric thickness are tested. Modelling results show that a very thin oceanic lithosphere (models assuming temperature-dependent viscosity and large viscosity variations evolve to large-scale (upper mantle) convection cells, with upwelling of hot material being

  16. Coupled petrological-geodynamical modeling of a compositionally heterogeneous mantle plume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rummel, Lisa; Kaus, Boris J. P.; White, Richard W.; Mertz, Dieter F.; Yang, Jianfeng; Baumann, Tobias S.

    2018-01-01

    Self-consistent geodynamic modeling that includes melting is challenging as the chemistry of the source rocks continuously changes as a result of melt extraction. Here, we describe a new method to study the interaction between physical and chemical processes in an uprising heterogeneous mantle plume by combining a geodynamic code with a thermodynamic modeling approach for magma generation and evolution. We pre-computed hundreds of phase diagrams, each of them for a different chemical system. After melt is extracted, the phase diagram with the closest bulk rock chemistry to the depleted source rock is updated locally. The petrological evolution of rocks is tracked via evolving chemical compositions of source rocks and extracted melts using twelve oxide compositional parameters. As a result, a wide variety of newly generated magmatic rocks can in principle be produced from mantle rocks with different degrees of depletion. The results show that a variable geothermal gradient, the amount of extracted melt and plume excess temperature affect the magma production and chemistry by influencing decompression melting and the depletion of rocks. Decompression melting is facilitated by a shallower lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary and an increase in the amount of extracted magma is induced by a lower critical melt fraction for melt extraction and/or higher plume temperatures. Increasing critical melt fractions activates the extraction of melts triggered by decompression at a later stage and slows down the depletion process from the metasomatized mantle. Melt compositional trends are used to determine melting related processes by focusing on K2O/Na2O ratio as indicator for the rock type that has been molten. Thus, a step-like-profile in K2O/Na2O might be explained by a transition between melting metasomatized and pyrolitic mantle components reproducible through numerical modeling of a heterogeneous asthenospheric mantle source. A potential application of the developed method

  17. Effect of grid resolution and subgrid assumptions on the model prediction of a reactive buoyant plume under convective conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chock, D.P.; Winkler, S.L.; Pu Sun

    2002-01-01

    We have introduced a new and elaborate approach to understand the impact of grid resolution and subgrid chemistry assumption on the grid-model prediction of species concentrations for a system with highly non-homogeneous chemistry - a reactive buoyant plume immediately downwind of the stack in a convective boundary layer. The Parcel-Grid approach plume was used to describe both the air parcel turbulent transport and chemistry. This approach allows an identical transport process for all simulations. It also allows a description of subgrid chemistry. The ambient and plume parcel transport follows the description of Luhar and Britter (Atmos. Environ, 23 (1989) 1911, 26A (1992) 1283). The chemistry follows that of the Carbon-Bond mechanism. Three different grid sizes were considered: fine, medium and coarse, together with three different subgrid chemistry assumptions: micro-scale or individual parcel, tagged-parcel (plume and ambient parcels treated separately), and untagged-parcel (plume and ambient parcels treated indiscriminately). Reducing the subgrid information is not necessarily similar to increasing the model grid size. In our example, increasing the grid size leads to a reduction in the suppression of ozone in the presence of a high-NO x stack plume, and a reduction in the effectiveness of the NO x -inhibition effect. On the other hand, reducing the subgrid information (by using the untagged-parcel assumption) leads to an increase in ozone reduction and an enhancement of the NO x -inhibition effect insofar as the ozone extremum is concerned. (author)

  18. Numerical analysis and modeling of plume meandering in passive scalar dispersion downstream of a wall-mounted cube

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossi, R.; Iaccarino, G.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Scalar dispersion downstream of a wall-mounted cube is examined by DNS and RANS models. • Vortex-shedding and plume meandering are established in the wake of the cube. • Low-frequency modulation is observed in the vortex-shedding and plume meandering. • Counter-gradient transport takes place in the streamwise component of the scalar flux. • Concentration decay and plume spread improved by the unsteady RANS model. -- Abstract: A DNS database is employed to examine the onset of plume meandering downstream of a wall-mounted cube and to address the impact of large-scale unsteadiness in modeling dispersion using the RANS equations. The cube is immersed in a uniform stream where the thin boundary-layer developing over the flat plate is responsible for the onset of vortex-shedding in the wake of the bluff-body. Spectra of velocity and concentration fluctuations exhibit a prominent peak in the energy content at the same frequency, showing that the plume meandering is established by the action of the vortex-shedding. The vortex-shedding and plume meandering display a low-frequency modulation where coherent fluctuations are suppressed at times with a quasi-regular period. The onset of the low-frequency modulation is indicated by a secondary peak in the energy spectrum and confirmed by the autocorrelation of velocity and scalar fluctuations. Unsteady RANS simulations performed with the v 2 − f model are able to detect the onset of the plume meandering and show remarkable improvement of the predicted decay rate and rate of spread of the scalar plume when compared to steady RANS solutions. By computing explicitly the periodic component of velocity and scalar fluctuations, the unsteady v 2 − f model is able to provide a representation of scalar flux components consistent with DNS statistics, where the counter-gradient transport mechanism that takes place in the streamwise component is also captured by URANS results. Nonetheless, the agreement with DNS

  19. Validating Dart Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazur Jolanta

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The primary objective of the study was to quantitatively test the DART model, which despite being one of the most popular representations of co-creation concept was so far studied almost solely with qualitative methods. To this end, the researchers developed a multiple measurement scale and employed it in interviewing managers. The statistical evidence for adequacy of the model was obtained through CFA with AMOS software. The findings suggest that the DART model may not be an accurate representation of co-creation practices in companies. From the data analysis it was evident that the building blocks of DART had too much of conceptual overlap to be an effective framework for quantitative analysis. It was also implied that the phenomenon of co-creation is so rich and multifaceted that it may be more adequately captured by a measurement model where co-creation is conceived as a third-level factor with two layers of intermediate latent variables.

  20. HGSYSTEM/UF6 model enhancements for plume rise and dispersion around buildings, lift-off of buoyant plumes, and robustness of numerical solver

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanna, S.R.; Chang, J.C.

    1997-01-01

    The HGSYSTEM/UF 6 model was developed for use in preparing Safety Analysis Reports (SARs) by estimating the consequences of possible accidental releases of UF 6 to the atmosphere at the gaseous diffusion plants (GDPs) located in Portsmouth, Ohio, and Paducah, Kentucky. Although the latter report carries a 1996 date, the work that is described was completed in late 1994. When that report was written, the primary release scenarios of interest were thought to be gas pipeline and liquid tank ruptures over open terrain away from the influence of buildings. However, upon further analysis of possible release scenarios, the developers of the SARs decided it was necessary to also consider accidental releases within buildings. Consequently, during the fall and winter of 1995-96, modules were added to HGSYSTEM/UF 6 to account for flow and dispersion around buildings. The original HGSYSTEM/UF 6 model also contained a preliminary method for accounting for the possible lift-off of ground-based buoyant plumes. An improved model and a new set of wind tunnel data for buoyant plumes trapped in building recirculation cavities have become available that appear to be useful for revising the lift-off algorithm and modifying it for use in recirculation cavities. This improved lift-off model has been incorporated in the updated modules for dispersion around buildings

  1. A simple modeling approach to study the regional impact of a Mediterranean forest isoprene emission on anthropogenic plumes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Cortinovis

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Research during the past decades has outlined the importance of biogenic isoprene emission in tropospheric chemistry and regional ozone photo-oxidant pollution. The first part of this article focuses on the development and validation of a simple biogenic emission scheme designed for regional studies. Experimental data sets relative to Boreal, Tropical, Temperate and Mediterranean ecosystems are used to estimate the robustness of the scheme at the canopy scale, and over contrasted climatic and ecological conditions. A good agreement is generally found when comparing field measurements and simulated emission fluxes, encouraging us to consider the model suitable for regional application. Limitations of the scheme are nevertheless outlined as well as further on-going improvements. In the second part of the article, the emission scheme is used on line in the broader context of a meso-scale atmospheric chemistry model. Dynamically idealized simulations are carried out to study the chemical interactions of pollutant plumes with realistic isoprene emissions coming from a Mediterranean oak forest. Two types of anthropogenic sources, respectively representative of the Marseille (urban and Martigues (industrial French Mediterranean sites, and both characterized by different VOC/NOx are considered. For the Marseille scenario, the impact of biogenic emission on ozone production is larger when the forest is situated in a sub-urban configuration (i.e. downwind distance TOWN-FOREST -1. In this case the enhancement of ozone production due to isoprene can reach +37% in term of maximum surface concentrations and +11% in term of total ozone production. The impact of biogenic emission decreases quite rapidly when the TOWN-FOREST distance increases. For the Martigues scenario, the biogenic impact on the plume is significant up to TOWN-FOREST distance of 90km where the ozone maximum surface concentration enhancement can still reach +30%. For both cases, the

  2. Comparing the performance of geostatistical models with additional information from covariates for sewage plume characterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Monego, Maurici; Ribeiro, Paulo Justiniano; Ramos, Patrícia

    2015-04-01

    In this work, kriging with covariates is used to model and map the spatial distribution of salinity measurements gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle in a sea outfall monitoring campaign aiming to distinguish the effluent plume from the receiving waters and characterize its spatial variability in the vicinity of the discharge. Four different geostatistical linear models for salinity were assumed, where the distance to diffuser, the west-east positioning, and the south-north positioning were used as covariates. Sample variograms were fitted by the Matèrn models using weighted least squares and maximum likelihood estimation methods as a way to detect eventual discrepancies. Typically, the maximum likelihood method estimated very low ranges which have limited the kriging process. So, at least for these data sets, weighted least squares showed to be the most appropriate estimation method for variogram fitting. The kriged maps show clearly the spatial variation of salinity, and it is possible to identify the effluent plume in the area studied. The results obtained show some guidelines for sewage monitoring if a geostatistical analysis of the data is in mind. It is important to treat properly the existence of anomalous values and to adopt a sampling strategy that includes transects parallel and perpendicular to the effluent dispersion.

  3. Propagation of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in an integral oil-gas plume model

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Shitao; Iskandarani, Mohamed; Srinivasan, Ashwanth; Thacker, W. Carlisle; Winokur, Justin; Knio, Omar

    2016-01-01

    Polynomial Chaos expansions are used to analyze uncertainties in an integral oil-gas plume model simulating the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The study focuses on six uncertain input parameters—two entrainment parameters, the gas to oil ratio, two parameters associated with the droplet-size distribution, and the flow rate—that impact the model's estimates of the plume's trap and peel heights, and of its various gas fluxes. The ranges of the uncertain inputs were determined by experimental data. Ensemble calculations were performed to construct polynomial chaos-based surrogates that describe the variations in the outputs due to variations in the uncertain inputs. The surrogates were then used to estimate reliably the statistics of the model outputs, and to perform an analysis of variance. Two experiments were performed to study the impacts of high and low flow rate uncertainties. The analysis shows that in the former case the flow rate is the largest contributor to output uncertainties, whereas in the latter case, with the uncertainty range constrained by aposteriori analyses, the flow rate's contribution becomes negligible. The trap and peel heights uncertainties are then mainly due to uncertainties in the 95% percentile of the droplet size and in the entrainment parameters.

  4. Validation through model testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    Geoval-94 is the third Geoval symposium arranged jointly by the OECD/NEA and the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate. Earlier symposia in this series took place in 1987 and 1990. In many countries, the ongoing programmes to site and construct deep geological repositories for high and intermediate level nuclear waste are close to realization. A number of studies demonstrates the potential barrier function of the geosphere, but also that there are many unresolved issues. A key to these problems are the possibilities to gain knowledge by model testing with experiments and to increase confidence in models used for prediction. The sessions cover conclusions from the INTRAVAL-project, experiences from integrated experimental programs and underground research laboratories as well as the integration between performance assessment and site characterisation. Technical issues ranging from waste and buffer interactions with the rock to radionuclide migration in different geological media is addressed. (J.S.)

  5. Perpetual Model Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    25]. This inference process is carried out by a tool referred to as Hynger (Hybrid iNvariant GEneratoR), overviewed in Figure 4, which is a MATLAB ...initially on memory access patterns. A monitoring module will check, at runtime that the observed memory access pattern matches the pattern the software is...necessary. By using the developed approach, a model may be derived from initial tests or simulations , which will then be formally checked at runtime

  6. Smoke plume trajectory from in-situ burning of crude oil: complex terrain modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGrattan, K.

    1997-01-01

    Numerical models have been used to predict the concentration of particulate matter or other combustion products downwind from a proposed in- situ burning of an oil spill. One of the models used was the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) model, ALOFT (A Large Outdoor Fire plume Trajectory), which is based on the conservation equations that govern the introduction of hot gases and particulate matter into the atmosphere. By using a model based on fundamental equations, it becomes a relatively simple matter to simulate smoke dispersal flow patterns, and to compute the solution to the equations of motion that govern the transport of pollutants in the lower atmosphere at a resolution that is comparable to that of the underlying terrain data. 9 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs

  7. Airborne Detection and Dynamic Modeling of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob, Jamey; Mitchell, Taylor; Whyte, Seabrook

    2015-11-01

    To facilitate safe storage of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4, airborne monitoring is investigated. Conventional soil gas monitoring has difficulty in distinguishing gas flux signals from leakage with those associated with meteorologically driven changes. A low-cost, lightweight sensor system has been developed and implemented onboard a small unmanned aircraft that measures gas concentration and is combined with other atmospheric diagnostics, including thermodynamic data and velocity from hot-wire and multi-hole probes. To characterize the system behavior and verify its effectiveness, field tests have been conducted over controlled rangeland burns and over simulated leaks. In the former case, since fire produces carbon dioxide over a large area, this was an opportunity to test in an environment that while only vaguely similar to a carbon sequestration leak source, also exhibits interesting plume behavior. In the simulated field tests, compressed gas tanks are used to mimic leaks and generate gaseous plumes. Since the sensor response time is a function of vehicle airspeed, dynamic calibration models are required to determine accurate location of gas concentration in (x , y , z , t) . Results are compared with simulations using combined flight and atmospheric dynamic models. Supported by Department of Energy Award DE-FE0012173.

  8. The impact from emitted NO{sub x} and VOC in an aircraft plume. Model results for the free troposphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pleijel, K.

    1998-04-01

    The chemical fate of gaseous species in a specific aircraft plume is investigated using an expanding box model. The model treats the gas phase chemical reactions in detail, while other parameters are subject to a high degree of simplification. Model simulations were carried out in a plume up to an age of three days. The role of emitted VOC, NO{sub x} and CO as well as of background concentrations of VOC, NO{sub x} and ozone on aircraft plume chemistry was investigated. Background concentrations were varied in a span of measured values in the free troposphere. High background concentrations of VOC were found to double the average plume production of ozone and organic nitrates. In a high NO{sub x} environment the plume production of ozone and organic nitrates decreased by around 50%. The production of nitric acid was found to be less sensitive to background concentrations of VOC, and increased by up to 50% in a high NO{sub x} environment. Mainly, emitted NO{sub x} caused the plume production of ozone, nitric acid and organic nitrates. The ozone production during the first hours is determined by the relative amount of NO{sub 2} in the NO{sub x} emissions. The impact from emitted VOC was in relative values up to 20% of the ozone production and 65% of the production of organic nitrates. The strongest relative influence from VOC was found in an environment characterized by low VOC and high NO{sub x} background concentrations, where the absolute peak production was lower than in the other scenarios. The effect from emitting VOC and NO{sub x} at the same time added around 5% for ozone, 15% for nitric acid and 10% for organic nitrates to the plume production caused by NO{sub x} and VOC when emitted separately 47 refs, 15 figs, 4 tabs

  9. Multi-scale Modeling of Power Plant Plume Emissions and Comparisons with Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costigan, K. R.; Lee, S.; Reisner, J.; Dubey, M. K.; Love, S. P.; Henderson, B. G.; Chylek, P.

    2011-12-01

    The Remote Sensing Verification Project (RSVP) test-bed located in the Four Corners region of Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico offers a unique opportunity to develop new approaches for estimating emissions of CO2. Two major power plants located in this area produce very large signals of co-emitted CO2 and NO2 in this rural region. In addition to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) maintaining Continuous Emissions Monitoring Systems (CEMS) on each of the power plant stacks, the RSVP program has deployed an array of in-situ and remote sensing instruments, which provide both point and integrated measurements. To aid in the synthesis and interpretation of the measurements, a multi-scale atmospheric modeling approach is implemented, using two atmospheric numerical models: the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with chemistry (WRF-Chem; Grell et al., 2005) and the HIGRAD model (Reisner et al., 2003). The high fidelity HIGRAD model incorporates a multi-phase Lagrangian particle based approach to track individual chemical species of stack plumes at ultra-high resolution, using an adaptive mesh. It is particularly suited to model buoyancy effects and entrainment processes at the edges of the power plant plumes. WRF-Chem is a community model that has been applied to a number of air quality problems and offers several physical and chemical schemes that can be used to model the transport and chemical transformation of the anthropogenic plumes out of the local region. Multiple nested grids employed in this study allow the model to incorporate atmospheric variability ranging from synoptic scales to micro-scales (~200 m), while including locally developed flows influenced by the nearby complex terrain of the San Juan Mountains. The simulated local atmospheric dynamics are provided to force the HIGRAD model, which links mesoscale atmospheric variability to the small-scale simulation of the power plant plumes. We will discuss how these two models are applied and

  10. A new conceptual model for whole mantle convection and the origin of hotspot plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Masaki

    2014-08-01

    A new conceptual model of mantle convection is constructed for consideration of the origin of hotspot plumes, using recent evidence from seismology, high-pressure experiments, geodynamic modeling, geoid inversion studies, and post-glacial rebound analyses. This conceptual model delivers several key points. Firstly, some of the small-scale mantle upwellings observed as hotspots on the Earth's surface originate at the base of the mantle transition zone (MTZ), in which the Archean granitic continental material crust (TTG; tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorite) with abundant radiogenic elements is accumulated. Secondly, the TTG crust and the subducted oceanic crust that have accumulated at the base of MTZ could act as thermal or mechanical insulators, leading to the formation of a hot and less viscous layer just beneath the MTZ; which may enhance the instability of plume generation at the base of the MTZ. Thirdly, the origin of some hotspot plumes is isolated from the large low shear-wave velocity provinces (LLSVPs) under Africa and the South Pacific. I consider that the conceptual model explains why almost all the hotspots around Africa are located above the margins of the African LLSVP. Because a planetary-scale trench system surrounding a “Pangean cell” has been spatially stable throughout the Phanerozoic, a large amount of the oceanic crustal layer is likely to be trapped in the MTZ under the Pangean cell. Therefore, under Africa, almost all of the hotspot plumes originate from the base of the MTZ, where a large amount of TTG and/or oceanic crusts has accumulated. This conceptual model may explain the fact that almost all the hotspots around Africa are located on margins above the African LLSVP. It is also considered that some of the hotspot plumes under the South Pacific thread through the TTG/oceanic crusts accumulated around the bottom of the MTZ, and some have their roots in the South Pacific LLSVP while others originate from the MTZ. The numerical simulations

  11. The tropospheric processing of acidic gases and hydrogen sulphide in volcanic gas plumes as inferred from field and model investigations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Aiuppa

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Improving the constraints on the atmospheric fate and depletion rates of acidic compounds persistently emitted by non-erupting (quiescent volcanoes is important for quantitatively predicting the environmental impact of volcanic gas plumes. Here, we present new experimental data coupled with modelling studies to investigate the chemical processing of acidic volcanogenic species during tropospheric dispersion. Diffusive tube samplers were deployed at Mount Etna, a very active open-conduit basaltic volcano in eastern Sicily, and Vulcano Island, a closed-conduit quiescent volcano in the Aeolian Islands (northern Sicily. Sulphur dioxide (SO2, hydrogen sulphide (H2S, hydrogen chloride (HCl and hydrogen fluoride (HF concentrations in the volcanic plumes (typically several minutes to a few hours old were repeatedly determined at distances from the summit vents ranging from 0.1 to ~10 km, and under different environmental conditions. At both volcanoes, acidic gas concentrations were found to decrease exponentially with distance from the summit vents (e.g., SO2 decreases from ~10 000 μg/m3at 0.1 km from Etna's vents down to ~7 μg/m3 at ~10 km distance, reflecting the atmospheric dilution of the plume within the acid gas-free background troposphere. Conversely, SO2/HCl, SO2/HF, and SO2/H2S ratios in the plume showed no systematic changes with plume aging, and fit source compositions within analytical error. Assuming that SO2 losses by reaction are small during short-range atmospheric transport within quiescent (ash-free volcanic plumes, our observations suggest that, for these short transport distances, atmospheric reactions for H2S and halogens are also negligible. The one-dimensional model MISTRA was used to simulate quantitatively the evolution of halogen and sulphur compounds in the plume of Mt. Etna. Model predictions support the hypothesis of minor HCl chemical processing during plume transport, at least in cloud-free conditions. Larger

  12. Sinking, merging and stationary plumes in a coupled chemotaxis-fluid model: a high-resolution numerical approach

    KAUST Repository

    Chertock, A.; Fellner, K.; Kurganov, A.; Lorz, A.; Markowich, P. A.

    2012-01-01

    examples, which illustrate (i) the formation of sinking plumes, (ii) the possible merging of neighbouring plumes and (iii) the convergence towards numerically stable stationary plumes. The examples with stable stationary plumes show how the surface

  13. Modelling Photoelectron Production in the Enceladus Plume and Comparison with Observations by CAPS-ELS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, S. A.; Coates, A. J.; Jones, G.; Wellbrock, A.; Waite, J. H., Jr.

    2016-12-01

    The Electron Spectrometer (ELS) of the Cassini Plasma Spectrometer (CAPS) measures electrons in the energy range 0.6-28,000 eV with an energy resolution of 16.7%. ELS has observed photoelectrons produced in the plume of Enceladus. These photoelectrons are found during Enceladus encounters in the energetic particle shadow where the spacecraft is shielded from penetrating radiation by the moon [Coates et al, 2013]. Observable is a population of photoelectrons at 20-30eV, which are seen at other bodies in the solar system and are usually associated with ionisation by the strong solar He II (30.4 nm) line. We have identified secondary peaks at 40-50eV detected by ELS which are also interpreted as a warmer population of photoelectrons created through the ionisation of neutrals in the Enceladus torus. We have constructed a model of photoelectron production in the plume and compared it with ELS Enceladus flyby data using automated fitting procedures. This has yielded estimates for electron temperature and density as well as a spacecraft potential estimate which is corrected for.

  14. Entrainment by turbulent plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, David; Burridge, Henry; Partridge, Jamie; Linden, Paul

    2017-11-01

    Plumes are of relevance to nature and real consequence to industry. While the Morton, Taylor & Turner (1956) plume model is able to estimate the mean physical flux parameters, the process of entrainment is only parametrised in a time-averaged sense and a deeper understanding is key to understanding how they evolve. Various flow configurations, resulting in different entrainment values, are considered; we perform simultaneous PIV and plume-edge detection on saline plumes in water resulting from a point source, a line source and a line source where a vertical wall is placed immediately adjacent. Of particular interest is the effect the large scale eddies, forming at the edge of the plume and engulfing ambient fluid, have on the entrainment process. By using velocity statistics in a coordinate system based on the instantaneous scalar edge of the plume the significance of this large scale engulfment is quantified. It is found that significant mass is transported outside the plumes, in particular in regions where large scale structures are absent creating regions of relatively high-momentum ambient fluid. This suggests that the large scale processes, whereby ambient fluid is engulfed into the plume, contribute significantly to the entrainment.

  15. Sinking, merging and stationary plumes in a coupled chemotaxis-fluid model: a high-resolution numerical approach

    KAUST Repository

    Chertock, A.

    2012-02-02

    Aquatic bacteria like Bacillus subtilis are heavier than water yet they are able to swim up an oxygen gradient and concentrate in a layer below the water surface, which will undergo Rayleigh-Taylor-type instabilities for sufficiently high concentrations. In the literature, a simplified chemotaxis-fluid system has been proposed as a model for bio-convection in modestly diluted cell suspensions. It couples a convective chemotaxis system for the oxygen-consuming and oxytactic bacteria with the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations subject to a gravitational force proportional to the relative surplus of the cell density compared to the water density. In this paper, we derive a high-resolution vorticity-based hybrid finite-volume finite-difference scheme, which allows us to investigate the nonlinear dynamics of a two-dimensional chemotaxis-fluid system with boundary conditions matching an experiment of Hillesdon et al. (Bull. Math. Biol., vol. 57, 1995, pp. 299-344). We present selected numerical examples, which illustrate (i) the formation of sinking plumes, (ii) the possible merging of neighbouring plumes and (iii) the convergence towards numerically stable stationary plumes. The examples with stable stationary plumes show how the surface-directed oxytaxis continuously feeds cells into a high-concentration layer near the surface, from where the fluid flow (recurring upwards in the space between the plumes) transports the cells into the plumes, where then gravity makes the cells sink and constitutes the driving force in maintaining the fluid convection and, thus, in shaping the plumes into (numerically) stable stationary states. Our numerical method is fully capable of solving the coupled chemotaxis-fluid system and enabling a full exploration of its dynamics, which cannot be done in a linearised framework. © 2012 Cambridge University Press.

  16. Observation of thermal plumes from submerged discharges in the Great Lakes and their implications for modeling and monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ditmars, J.D.; Paddock, R.A.; Frigo, A.A.

    1977-01-01

    Measurements of thermal plumes from submerged discharges of power plant cooling waters into the Great Lakes provide the opportunity to view the mixing processes at prototype scales and to observe the effects of the ambient environment on those processes. Examples of thermal plume behavior in Great Lakes' ambient environments are presented to demonstrate the importance of measurements of the detailed structure of the ambient environment, as well as of the plumes, for interpretation of prototype data for modeling and monitoring purposes. The examples are drawn from studies by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) at the Zion Nuclear PowerStation and the D. C. Cook Nuclear Plant on Lake Michigan and at the J. A. FitzPatrick Nuclear Power Plant on Lake Ontario. These studies included measurements of water temperatures from a moving boat which provide a quasi-synoptic view of the three-dimensional temperature structure of the thermal plume and ambient water environment. Additional measurements of water velocities, which are made with continuously recording, moored, and profiling current meters, and of wind provide data on the detailed structure of the ambient environment. The detailed structure of the ambient environment, in terms of current, current shear, variable winds, and temperature stratification, often influence greatly thermal plume behavior. Although predictive model techniques and monitoring objectives often ignore the detailed aspects of the ambient environment, useful interpretation of prototype data for model evaluation or calibration and monitoring purposes requires detailed measurement of the ambient environment. Examination of prototype thermal plume data indicates that, in several instances, attention to only the gross characteristics of the ambient environment can be misleading and could result in significant errors in model calibration and extrapolation of data bases gathered in monitoring observations

  17. Modeling ozone plumes observed downwind of New York City over the North Atlantic Ocean during the ICARTT field campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.-H. Lee

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Transport and chemical transformation of well-defined New York City (NYC urban plumes over the North Atlantic Ocean were studied using aircraft measurements collected on 20–21 July 2004 during the ICARTT (International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation field campaign and WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry model simulations. The strong NYC urban plumes were characterized by carbon monoxide (CO mixing ratios of 350–400 parts per billion by volume (ppbv and ozone (O3 levels of about 100 ppbv near New York City on 20 July in the WP-3D in-situ and DC-3 lidar aircraft measurements. On 21 July, the two aircraft captured strong urban plumes with about 350 ppbv CO and over 150 ppbv O3 (~160 ppbv maximum about 600 km downwind of NYC over the North Atlantic Ocean. The measured urban plumes extended vertically up to about 2 km near New York City, but shrank to 1–1.5 km over the stable marine boundary layer (MBL over the North Atlantic Ocean. The WRF-Chem model reproduced ozone formation processes, chemical characteristics, and meteorology of the measured urban plumes near New York City (20 July and in the far downwind region over the North Atlantic Ocean (21 July. The quasi-Lagrangian analysis of transport and chemical transformation of the simulated NYC urban plumes using WRF-Chem results showed that the pollutants can be efficiently transported in (isentropic layers in the lower atmosphere (<2–3 km over the North Atlantic Ocean while maintaining a dynamic vertical decoupling by cessation of turbulence in the stable MBL. The O3 mixing ratio in the NYC urban plumes remained at 80–90 ppbv during nocturnal transport over the stable MBL, then grew to over 100 ppbv by daytime oxidation of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2 with mixing ratios on the order of 1 ppbv. Efficient transport of reactive nitrogen species (NOy, specifically nitric

  18. 3D Numerical Model of Continental Breakup via Plume Lithosphere Interaction Near Cratonic Blocks: Implications for the Tanzanian Craton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koptev, A.; Calais, E.; Burov, E. B.; Leroy, S. D.; Gerya, T.

    2014-12-01

    Although many continental rift basins and their successfully rifted counterparts at passive continental margins are magmatic, some are not. This dichotomy prompted end-member views of the mechanism driving continental rifting, deep-seated and mantle plume-driven for some, owing to shallow lithospheric stretching for others. In that regard, the East African Rift (EAR), the 3000 km-long divergent boundary between the Nubian and Somalian plates, provides a unique setting with the juxtaposition of the eastern, magma-rich, and western, magma-poor, branches on either sides of the 250-km thick Tanzanian craton. Here we implement high-resolution rheologically realistic 3D numerical model of plume-lithosphere interactions in extensional far-field settings to explain this contrasted behaviour in a unified framework starting from simple, symmetrical initial conditions with an isolated mantle plume rising beneath a craton in an east-west tensional far field stress. The upwelling mantle plume is deflected by the cratonic keel and preferentially channelled along one of its sides. This leads to the coeval development of a magma-rich branch above the plume head and a magma-poor one along the opposite side of the craton, the formation of a rotating microplate between the two rift branches, and the feeding of melt to both branches form a single mantle source. The model bears strong similarities with the evolution of the eastern and western branches of the central EAR and the geodetically observed rotation of the Victoria microplate. This result reconciles the passive (plume-activated) versus active (far-field tectonic stresses) rift models as our experiments shows both processes in action and demonstrate the possibility of developing both magmatic and amagmatic rifts in identical geotectonic environments.

  19. Recommendations on dose buildup factors used in models for calculating gamma doses for a plume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedemann Jensen, P.; Thykier-Nielsen, S.

    1980-09-01

    Calculations of external γ-doses from radioactivity released to the atmosphere have been made using different dose buildup factor formulas. Some of the dose buildup factor formulas are used by the Nordic countries in their respective γ-dose models. A comparison of calculated γ-doses using these dose buildup factors shows that the γ-doses can be significantly dependent on the buildup factor formula used in the calculation. Increasing differences occur for increasing plume height, crosswind distance, and atmospheric stability and also for decreasing downwind distance. It is concluded that the most accurate γ-dose can be calculated by use of Capo's polynomial buildup factor formula. Capo-coefficients have been calculated and shown in this report for γ-energies below the original lower limit given by Capo. (author)

  20. Modelling of plume chemistry of high flying aircraft with H2 combustion engines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weibring, G.; Zellner, R.

    1993-01-01

    Emissions from hydrogen fueled aircraft engines include large concentrations of radicals such as NO, OH, O and H. We describe the result of modelling studies in which the evolution of the radical chemistry in an expanding and cooling plume for three different mixing velocities is evaluated. The simulations were made for hydrogen combustion engines at an altitude of 26 km. For the fastest mixing conditions, the radical concentrations decrease only because of dilution with the ambient air, since the time for chemical reaction is too short. With lower mixing velocities, however, larger chemical conversions were determined. For the slowest mixing conditions the unburned hydrogen is converted into water. As a consequence the radicals O and OH increase considerably around 1400 K. The only exception being NO, for which no chemical change during the expansion is found. The concentrations of the reservoir molecules like H 2 O 2 , N 2 O 5 or HNO 3 have been calculated to remain relatively small. (orig.)

  1. Validation process of simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Isidro, M. J.

    1998-01-01

    It is presented a methodology on empirical validation about any detailed simulation model. This king of validation it is always related with an experimental case. The empirical validation has a residual sense, because the conclusions are based on comparisons between simulated outputs and experimental measurements. This methodology will guide us to detect the fails of the simulation model. Furthermore, it can be used a guide in the design of posterior experiments. Three steps can be well differentiated: Sensitivity analysis. It can be made with a DSA, differential sensitivity analysis, and with a MCSA, Monte-Carlo sensitivity analysis. Looking the optimal domains of the input parameters. It has been developed a procedure based on the Monte-Carlo methods and Cluster techniques, to find the optimal domains of these parameters. Residual analysis. This analysis has been made on the time domain and on the frequency domain, it has been used the correlation analysis and spectral analysis. As application of this methodology, it is presented the validation carried out on a thermal simulation model on buildings, Esp., studying the behavior of building components on a Test Cell of LECE of CIEMAT. (Author) 17 refs

  2. Low Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD) Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test (SFDT) Plume Induced Environment Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mobley, B. L.; Smith, S. D.; Van Norman, J. W.; Muppidi, S.; Clark, I

    2016-01-01

    Provide plume induced heating (radiation & convection) predictions in support of the LDSD thermal design (pre-flight SFDT-1) Predict plume induced aerodynamics in support of flight dynamics, to achieve targeted freestream conditions to test supersonic deceleration technologies (post-flight SFDT-1, pre-flight SFDT-2)

  3. Chemistry in aircraft plumes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kraabol, A.G.; Stordal, F.; Knudsen, S. [Norwegian Inst. for Air Research, Kjeller (Norway); Konopka, P. [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1997-12-31

    An expanding plume model with chemistry has been used to study the chemical conversion of NO{sub x} to reservoir species in aircraft plumes. The heterogeneous conversion of N{sub 2}O{sub 5} to HNO{sub 3}(s) has been investigated when the emissions take place during night-time. The plume from an B747 has been simulated. During a ten-hour calculation the most important reservoir species was HNO{sub 3} for emissions at noon. The heterogeneous reactions had little impact on the chemical loss of NO{sub x} to reservoir species for emissions at night. (author) 4 refs.

  4. Chemistry in aircraft plumes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kraabol, A G; Stordal, F; Knudsen, S [Norwegian Inst. for Air Research, Kjeller (Norway); Konopka, P [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1998-12-31

    An expanding plume model with chemistry has been used to study the chemical conversion of NO{sub x} to reservoir species in aircraft plumes. The heterogeneous conversion of N{sub 2}O{sub 5} to HNO{sub 3}(s) has been investigated when the emissions take place during night-time. The plume from an B747 has been simulated. During a ten-hour calculation the most important reservoir species was HNO{sub 3} for emissions at noon. The heterogeneous reactions had little impact on the chemical loss of NO{sub x} to reservoir species for emissions at night. (author) 4 refs.

  5. Modelling tools for integrating geological, geophysical and contamination data for characterization of groundwater plumes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balbarini, Nicola

    the contaminant plume in a shallow and a deep plume. These plumes have different chemical characteristics and different migration paths to the stream. This has implications for the risk assessment of the stream and groundwater in the area. The difficulty of determining groundwater flow paths means that it is also...... receptors, including streams. Key risk assessment parameters, such as contaminant mass discharge estimates, and tools are then used to evaluate the risk. The cost of drilling often makes investigations of large and/or deep contaminant plumes unfeasible. For this reason, it is important to develop cost...... organic compounds, including pharmaceutical compounds and chlorinated ethenes. The correlation between DCIP and organic compounds is indirect and depends on the chemical composition of the contaminant plume and the transport processes. Thus, the correlations are site specific and may change between...

  6. A Model for the Infrared Radiance of Optically Thin, Particulate Exhaust Plumes Generated by Pyrotechnic Flares Burning in a Vacuum

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cohen, Douglas

    2000-01-01

    .... The model is used to predict how a magnesium-Teflon exhaust plume would look when viewed as an approximate point source by a distant infrared sensor and also to analyze the data acquired from three separate magnesium-Teflon flares burned in a large vacuum chamber.

  7. Field studies of the thermal plume from the D. C. Cook submerged discharge with comparisons to hydraulic-model results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frigo, A.A.; Paddock, R.A.; McCown, D.L.

    1975-06-01

    The Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant at Bridgman, Michigan, uses submerged-diffuser discharges as a means of disposing waste heat into Lake Michigan. Preliminary results of temperature surveys of the thermal plume at the D. C. Cook Plant are presented. Indications are that the spatial extent of the plume at the surface is much smaller than previous results for surface shoreline discharges, particularly in the near and intermediate portions of the plume. Comparisons of limited prototype data with hydraulic (tank)-model predictions indicate that the model predictions for centerline temperature decay at the surface are too high for the initial 200 m from the discharge, but are generally correct beyond this point to the limits of the model. In addition, the hydraulic-model results underestimate the areal extent of the near and intermediate portions of the plume at the surface. Because this is the first report of a new field program, several inadequacies in the field-measurement techniques are noted and discussed. New techniques that have been developed to remedy these deficiencies, and which will be implemented for future field work, are also described. (auth)

  8. Verification and validation of models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, A.W.; Hodgkinson, D.P.; Jackson, C.P.; Lever, D.A.; Robinson, P.C.

    1986-12-01

    The numerical accuracy of the computer models for groundwater flow and radionuclide transport that are to be used in repository safety assessment must be tested, and their ability to describe experimental data assessed: they must be verified and validated respectively. Also appropriate ways to use the codes in performance assessments, taking into account uncertainties in present data and future conditions, must be studied. These objectives are being met by participation in international exercises, by developing bench-mark problems, and by analysing experiments. In particular the project has funded participation in the HYDROCOIN project for groundwater flow models, the Natural Analogues Working Group, and the INTRAVAL project for geosphere models. (author)

  9. Solar Coronal Plumes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giannina Poletto

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Polar plumes are thin long ray-like structures that project beyond the limb of the Sun polar regions, maintaining their identity over distances of several solar radii. Plumes have been first observed in white-light (WL images of the Sun, but, with the advent of the space era, they have been identified also in X-ray and UV wavelengths (XUV and, possibly, even in in situ data. This review traces the history of plumes, from the time they have been first imaged, to the complex means by which nowadays we attempt to reconstruct their 3-D structure. Spectroscopic techniques allowed us also to infer the physical parameters of plumes and estimate their electron and kinetic temperatures and their densities. However, perhaps the most interesting problem we need to solve is the role they cover in the solar wind origin and acceleration: Does the solar wind emanate from plumes or from the ambient coronal hole wherein they are embedded? Do plumes have a role in solar wind acceleration and mass loading? Answers to these questions are still somewhat ambiguous and theoretical modeling does not provide definite answers either. Recent data, with an unprecedented high spatial and temporal resolution, provide new information on the fine structure of plumes, their temporal evolution and relationship with other transient phenomena that may shed further light on these elusive features.

  10. 3D Thermo-Mechanical Models of Plume-Lithosphere Interactions: Implications for the Kenya rift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheck-Wenderoth, M.; Koptev, A.; Sippel, J.

    2017-12-01

    We present three-dimensional (3D) thermo-mechanical models aiming to explore the interaction of an active mantle plume with heterogeneous pre-stressed lithosphere in the Kenya rift region. As shown by the recent data-driven 3D gravity and thermal modeling (Sippel et al., 2017), the integrated strength of the lithosphere for the region of Kenya and northern Tanzania appears to be strongly controlled by the complex inherited crustal structure, which may have been decisive for the onset, localization and propagation of rifting. In order to test this hypothesis, we have performed a series of ultra-high resolution 3D numerical experiments that include a coupled mantle/lithosphere system in a dynamically and rheologically consistent framework. In contrast to our previous studies assuming a simple and quasi-symmetrical initial condition (Koptev et al., 2015, 2016, 2017), the complex 3D distribution of rock physical properties inferred from geological and geophysical observations (Sippel et al., 2017) has been incorporated into the model setup that comprises a stratified three-layer continental lithosphere composed of an upper and lower crust and lithospheric mantle overlaying the upper mantle. Following the evidence of the presence of a broad low-velocity seismic anomaly under the central parts of the East African Rift system (e.g. Nyblade et al, 2000; Chang et al., 2015), a 200-km radius mantle plume has been seeded at the bottom of a 635 km-depth model box representing a thermal anomaly of 300°C temperature excess. In all model runs, results show that the spatial distribution of surface deformation is indeed strongly controlled by crustal structure: within the southern part of the model box, a localized narrow zone stretched in NS direction (i.e. perpendicularly to applied far-field extension) is aligned along a structural boundary within the lower crust, whereas in the northern part of the model domain, deformation is more diffused and its eastern limit coincides with

  11. Using MOPITT data and a Chemistry and Transport Model to Investigate Injection Height of Plumes from Boreal Forest Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyer, E. J.; Allen, D. J.; Kasischke, E. S.; Warner, J. X.

    2003-12-01

    Trace gas emissions from boreal forest fires are a significant factor in atmospheric composition and its interannual variability. A number of recent observations of emissions plumes above individual fire events (Fromm and Servranckx, 2003; COBRA 2003; Lamarque et al., 2003; Wotawa and Trainer, 2000) suggest that vertical properties of forest fire emission plumes can be very different from fossil fuel emission plumes. Understanding and constraining the vertical properties of forest fire emission plumes and their injection into the atmosphere during fire events is critical for accurate modeling of atmospheric transport and chemistry. While excellent data have been collected in a handful of experiments on individual fire events, a systematic examination of the range of behavior observed in fire events has been hampered by the scarcity of vertical profiles of atmospheric composition. In this study, we used a high-resolution model of boreal forest fire emissions (Kasischke et al, in review) as input to the Goddard/UM CTM driven by the GEOS-3 DAS, operating at 2 by 2.5 degrees with 35 vertical levels. We modeled atmospheric injection and transport of CO emissions during the fire season of 2000 (May-September). We altered the parameters of the model to simulate a range of scenarios of plume injection, and compared the resulting output to the CO profiles from the MOPITT instrument. The results presented here pertain to the boreal forest, but our methods should be useful for atmospheric modelers hoping to more realistically model transport of emission plumes from biomass burning. References: COBRA2003: see http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~cobra/smoke_canada_030530.pdf Fromm, M. and R. Servranckx, 2003. "Stratospheric Injection of Forest Fire Emissions on August 4, 1998: A Satellite Image Analysis of the Causal Supercell Convection." Geophysical Research Abstracts 5:13118. Kasischke, E.S.; E.J. Hyer, N.H.F. French, A.I. Sukhinin, J.H. Hewson, B.J. Stocks, in review. "Carbon

  12. Particle-Resolved Modeling of Aerosol Mixing State in an Evolving Ship Plume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riemer, N. S.; Tian, J.; Pfaffenberger, L.; Schlager, H.; Petzold, A.

    2011-12-01

    The aerosol mixing state is important since it impacts the particles' optical and CCN properties and thereby their climate impact. It evolves continuously during the particles' residence time in the atmosphere as a result of coagulation with other particles and condensation of secondary aerosol species. This evolution is challenging to represent in traditional aerosol models since they require the representation of a multi-dimensional particle distribution. While modal or sectional aerosol representations cannot practically resolve the aerosol mixing state for more than a few species, particle-resolved models store the composition of many individual aerosol particles directly. They thus sample the high-dimensional composition state space very efficiently and so can deal with tens of species, fully resolving the mixing state. Here we use the capabilities of the particle-resolved model PartMC-MOSAIC to simulate the evolution of particulate matter emitted from marine diesel engines and compare the results to aircraft measurements made in the English Channel in 2007 as part of the European campaign QUANTIFY. The model was initialized with values of gas concentrations and particle size distributions and compositions representing fresh ship emissions. These values were obtained from a test rig study in the European project HERCULES in 2006 using a serial four-stroke marine diesel engine operating on high-sulfur heavy fuel oil. The freshly emitted particles consisted of sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon and ash. We then tracked the particle population for several hours as it evolved undergoing coagulation, dilution with the background air, and chemical transformations in the aerosol and gas phase. This simulation was used to compute the evolution of CCN properties and optical properties of the plume on a per-particle basis. We compared our results to size-resolved data of aged ship plumes from the QUANTIFY Study in 2007 and showed that the model was able to reproduce

  13. FIREPLUME model for plume dispersion from fires: Application to uranium hexafluoride cylinder fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, D.F.; Dunn, W.E.

    1997-06-01

    This report provides basic documentation of the FIREPLUME model and discusses its application to the prediction of health impacts resulting from releases of uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) in fires. The model application outlined in this report was conducted for the Draft Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Alternative Strategies for the Long-Term Management and Use of Depleted UF 6 . The FIREPLUME model is an advanced stochastic model for atmospheric plume dispersion that predicts the downwind consequences of a release of toxic materials from an explosion or a fire. The model is based on the nonbuoyant atmospheric dispersion model MCLDM (Monte Carlo Lagrangian Dispersion Model), which has been shown to be consistent with available laboratory and field data. The inclusion of buoyancy and the addition of a postprocessor to evaluate time-varying concentrations lead to the current model. The FIREPLUME model, as applied to fire-related UF 6 cylinder releases, accounts for three phases of release and dispersion. The first phase of release involves the hydraulic rupture of the cylinder due to heating of the UF 6 in the fire. The second phase involves the emission of material into the burning fire, and the third phase involves the emission of material after the fire has died during the cool-down period. The model predicts the downwind concentration of the material as a function of time at any point downwind at or above the ground. All together, five fire-related release scenarios are examined in this report. For each scenario, downwind concentrations of the UF 6 reaction products, uranyl fluoride and hydrogen fluoride, are provided for two meteorological conditions: (1) D stability with a 4-m/s wind speed, and (2) F stability with a 1-m/s wind speed

  14. Corrective Measures Study Modeling Results for the Southwest Plume - Burial Ground Complex/Mixed Waste Management Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, M.K.

    1999-01-01

    Groundwater modeling scenarios were performed to support the Corrective Measures Study and Interim Action Plan for the southwest plume of the Burial Ground Complex/Mixed Waste Management Facility. The modeling scenarios were designed to provide data for an economic analysis of alternatives, and subsequently evaluate the effectiveness of the selected remedial technologies for tritium reduction to Fourmile Branch. Modeling scenarios assessed include no action, vertical barriers, pump, treat, and reinject; and vertical recirculation wells

  15. A forward model for the helium plume effect and the interpretation of helium charge exchange measurements at ASDEX Upgrade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kappatou, A.; McDermott, R. M.; Pütterich, T.; Dux, R.; Geiger, B.; Jaspers, R. J. E.; Donné, A. J. H.; Viezzer, E.; Cavedon, M.; the ASDEX Upgrade Team

    2018-05-01

    The analysis of the charge exchange measurements of helium is hindered by an additional emission contributing to the spectra, the helium ‘plume’ emission (Fonck et al 1984 Phys. Rev. A 29 3288), which complicates the interpretation of the measurements. The plume emission is indistinguishable from the active charge exchange signal when standard analysis of the spectra is applied and its intensity is of comparable magnitude for ASDEX Upgrade conditions, leading to a significant overestimation of the He2+ densities if not properly treated. Furthermore, the spectral line shape of the plume emission is non-Gaussian and leads to wrong ion temperature and flow measurements when not taken into account. A kinetic model for the helium plume emission has been developed for ASDEX Upgrade. The model is benchmarked against experimental measurements and is shown to capture the underlying physics mechanisms of the plume effect, as it can reproduce the experimental spectra and provides consistent values for the ion temperature, plasma rotation, and He2+ density.

  16. Hydrogen chloride heterogeneous chemistry on frozen water particles in subsonic aircraft plume. Laboratory studies and modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Persiantseva, N.V.; Popovitcheva, O.B.; Rakhimova, T.V. [Moscow State Univ. (Russian Federation)

    1997-12-31

    Heterogeneous chemistry of HCl, as a main reservoir of chlorine content gases, has been considered after plume cooling and ice particle formation. The HCl, HNO{sub 3}, N{sub 2}O{sub 5} uptake efficiencies by frozen water were obtained in a Knudsen-cell flow reactor at the subsonic cruise conditions. The formation of ice particles in the plume of subsonic aircraft is simulated to describe the kinetics of gaseous HCl loss due to heterogeneous processes. It is shown that the HCl uptake by frozen water particles may play an important role in the gaseous HCl depletion in the aircraft plume. (author) 14 refs.

  17. Hydrogen chloride heterogeneous chemistry on frozen water particles in subsonic aircraft plume. Laboratory studies and modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Persiantseva, N V; Popovitcheva, O B; Rakhimova, T V [Moscow State Univ. (Russian Federation)

    1998-12-31

    Heterogeneous chemistry of HCl, as a main reservoir of chlorine content gases, has been considered after plume cooling and ice particle formation. The HCl, HNO{sub 3}, N{sub 2}O{sub 5} uptake efficiencies by frozen water were obtained in a Knudsen-cell flow reactor at the subsonic cruise conditions. The formation of ice particles in the plume of subsonic aircraft is simulated to describe the kinetics of gaseous HCl loss due to heterogeneous processes. It is shown that the HCl uptake by frozen water particles may play an important role in the gaseous HCl depletion in the aircraft plume. (author) 14 refs.

  18. Implementing the Stochastic Model of Safety Assessment for the T.D.P. Plume Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurtado, A.; Eguilior, S.; Recreo, F.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, it is continued with the first phase of the implementation of the ABACO2G methodology (Application of Bayes to CO2 Geological Storage ) which is a new methodological approach to solving the problem related with the determination of probabilistic component of CO2 geological storage risk assessment, through the application of Bayesian networks and MonteCarlo probability. This in itself is a fundalmental but complex task, inasmuch as the risk assessment requires the identification of those system performance influence variables and the probability distribution of occurrence of defined events, which is highly difficult when there is no significant casuistry and/or fully developed events. On this, at this stage it has been studied the CO2 plume stochastic evolution implementation during the injection period. This is an essential task because the CO2 geologic storage risks will rely primarily on the convolution of the CO2 plume wavefront probability function with the probability functions of system risk elements, such as wells or faults, that define the event space to estimate the CO2 geologic storage risks.

  19. Experimental investigation of bubble plume structure instability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marco Simiano; Robert Zboray; Francois de Cachard [Thermal-Hydraulics Laboratory, Paul Scherrer Institut, 5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland); Djamel Lakehal; George Yadigaroglu [Institute of Energy Technology, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, ETH-Zentrum/CLT, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)

    2005-07-01

    cameras at a right angle provided instantaneous projections of the plume shape on two perpendicular planes. Image processing techniques were applied to determine the plume width and position and their fluctuations in time. Triggering the video recording process with the STPF-PIV system allowed to correlate the measured velocity fields with the plume position with respect to the vessel axis. Then, the velocity fields were ensemble - averaged for a given plume position. The results may significantly differ from the time - averaged velocity fields in a fixed plane, which were used in the past for code assessment. The present results should allow to better discriminate between effective plume spreading, due e.g. to turbulent dispersion, and superimposed, apparent spreading due to plume motion. Beyond this aspect, the achievement of local measurements of most flow parameters in fairly large bubble plumes is a unique tool for model validation. (authors)

  20. PEMFC modeling and experimental validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vargas, J.V.C. [Federal University of Parana (UFPR), Curitiba, PR (Brazil). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering], E-mail: jvargas@demec.ufpr.br; Ordonez, J.C.; Martins, L.S. [Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL (United States). Center for Advanced Power Systems], Emails: ordonez@caps.fsu.edu, martins@caps.fsu.edu

    2009-07-01

    In this paper, a simplified and comprehensive PEMFC mathematical model introduced in previous studies is experimentally validated. Numerical results are obtained for an existing set of commercial unit PEM fuel cells. The model accounts for pressure drops in the gas channels, and for temperature gradients with respect to space in the flow direction, that are investigated by direct infrared imaging, showing that even at low current operation such gradients are present in fuel cell operation, and therefore should be considered by a PEMFC model, since large coolant flow rates are limited due to induced high pressure drops in the cooling channels. The computed polarization and power curves are directly compared to the experimentally measured ones with good qualitative and quantitative agreement. The combination of accuracy and low computational time allow for the future utilization of the model as a reliable tool for PEMFC simulation, control, design and optimization purposes. (author)

  1. Evaluation of remedial alternative of a LNAPL plume utilizing groundwater modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, T.; Way, S.; Powell, G.

    1997-01-01

    The TIMES model was utilized to evaluate remedial options for a large LNAPL spill that was impacting the North Platte River in Glenrock, Wyoming. LNAPL was found discharging into the river from the adjoining alluvial aquifer. Subsequent investigations discovered an 18 hectare plume extended across the alluvium and into a sandstone bedrock outcrop to the south of the river. The TIMES model was used to estimate the LNAPL volume and to evaluate options for optimizing LNAPL recovery. Data collected from recovery and monitoring wells were used for model calibration. A LNAPL volume of 5.5 million L was estimated, over 3.0 million L of which is in the sandstone bedrock. An existing product recovery system was evaluated for its effectiveness. Three alternative recovery scenarios were also evaluated to aid in selecting the most cost-effective and efficient recovery system for the site. An active wellfield hydraulically upgradient of the existing recovery system was selected as most appropriate to augment the existing system in recovering LNAPL efficiently

  2. Sensitivity experiments with a one-dimensional coupled plume - iceflow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckmann, Johanna; Perette, Mahé; Alexander, David; Calov, Reinhard; Ganopolski, Andrey

    2016-04-01

    Over the last few decades Greenland Ice sheet mass balance has become increasingly negative, caused by enhanced surface melting and speedup of the marine-terminating outlet glaciers at the ice sheet margins. Glaciers speedup has been related, among other factors, to enhanced submarine melting, which in turn is caused by warming of the surrounding ocean and less obviously, by increased subglacial discharge. While ice-ocean processes potentially play an important role in recent and future mass balance changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet, their physical understanding remains poorly understood. In this work we performed numerical experiments with a one-dimensional plume model coupled to a one-dimensional iceflow model. First we investigated the sensitivity of submarine melt rate to changes in ocean properties (ocean temperature and salinity), to the amount of subglacial discharge and to the glacier's tongue geometry itself. A second set of experiments investigates the response of the coupled model, i.e. the dynamical response of the outlet glacier to altered submarine melt, which results in new glacier geometry and updated melt rates.

  3. Integration of plume and puff diffusion models/application of CFD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, Akira

    The clinical symptoms of patients and other evidences of a gas poisoning accident inside an industrial building strongly suggested an abrupt influx of engine exhaust from a construction vehicle which was operating outside in the open air. But the obviously high level of gas concentration could not be well explained by any conventional steady-state gas diffusion models. The author used an unsteady-state continuous Puff Model to simulate the time-wise changes in air stream with the pollutant gas being continuously emitted, and successfully reproduced the observed phenomena. The author demonstrates that this diffusion formula can be solved analytically by the use of error function as long as the change in wind velocity is stepwise, and clarifies the accurate differences between the unsteady- and steady-states and their convergence profiles. Also, the relationship between the Puff and Plume Models is discussed. The case study included a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis to estimate the steady-state air stream and the gas concentration pattern in the affected area. It is well known that clear definition of the boundary conditions is key to successful CFD analysis. The author describes a two-step use of CFD: the first step to define the boundary conditions and the second to determine the steady-state air stream and the gas concentration pattern.

  4. Interactions Between Mantle Plumes and Mid-Ocean Ridges: Constraints from Geophysics, Geochemistry, and Geodynamical Modeling

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Georgen, Jennifer

    2001-01-01

    This thesis studies interactions between mid-ocean ridges and mantle plumes. Chapter 1 investigates the effects of the Marion and Bouvet hotspots on the ultra-slow spreading, highly-segmented Southwest Indian Ridge (SWIR...

  5. Ablation plume dynamics in a background gas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amoruso, Salvatore; Schou, Jørgen; Lunney, James G.

    2010-01-01

    The expansion of a plume in a background gas of pressure comparable to that used in pulsed laser deposition (PLD) has been analyzed in terms of the model of Predtechensky and Mayorov (PM). This approach gives a relatively clear and simple description of the essential hydrodynamics during the expa......The expansion of a plume in a background gas of pressure comparable to that used in pulsed laser deposition (PLD) has been analyzed in terms of the model of Predtechensky and Mayorov (PM). This approach gives a relatively clear and simple description of the essential hydrodynamics during...... the expansion. The model also leads to an insightful treatment of the stopping behavior in dimensionless units for plumes and background gases of different atomic/molecular masses. The energetics of the plume dynamics can also be treated with this model. Experimental time-of-flight data of silver ions in a neon...... background gas show a fair agreement with predictions from the PM-model. Finally we discuss the validity of the model, if the work done by the pressure of the background gas is neglected....

  6. Sediment plume model-a comparison between use of measured turbidity data and satellite images for model calibration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghian, Amir; Hudson, Jeff; Wheater, Howard; Lindenschmidt, Karl-Erich

    2017-08-01

    In this study, we built a two-dimensional sediment transport model of Lake Diefenbaker, Saskatchewan, Canada. It was calibrated by using measured turbidity data from stations along the reservoir and satellite images based on a flood event in 2013. In June 2013, there was heavy rainfall for two consecutive days on the frozen and snow-covered ground in the higher elevations of western Alberta, Canada. The runoff from the rainfall and the melted snow caused one of the largest recorded inflows to the headwaters of the South Saskatchewan River and Lake Diefenbaker downstream. An estimated discharge peak of over 5200 m 3 /s arrived at the reservoir inlet with a thick sediment front within a few days. The sediment plume moved quickly through the entire reservoir and remained visible from satellite images for over 2 weeks along most of the reservoir, leading to concerns regarding water quality. The aims of this study are to compare, quantitatively and qualitatively, the efficacy of using turbidity data and satellite images for sediment transport model calibration and to determine how accurately a sediment transport model can simulate sediment transport based on each of them. Both turbidity data and satellite images were very useful for calibrating the sediment transport model quantitatively and qualitatively. Model predictions and turbidity measurements show that the flood water and suspended sediments entered upstream fairly well mixed and moved downstream as overflow with a sharp gradient at the plume front. The model results suggest that the settling and resuspension rates of sediment are directly proportional to flow characteristics and that the use of constant coefficients leads to model underestimation or overestimation unless more data on sediment formation become available. Hence, this study reiterates the significance of the availability of data on sediment distribution and characteristics for building a robust and reliable sediment transport model.

  7. Electrical Evolution of a Dust Plume from a Low Energy Lunar Impact: A Model Analog to LCROSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, W. M.; Stubbs, T. J.; Jackson, T. L.; Colaprete, A.; Heldmann, J. L.; Schultz, P. H.; Killen, R. M.; Delory, G. T.; Halekas, J. S.; Marshall, J. R.; hide

    2011-01-01

    A Monte Carlo test particle model was developed that simulates the charge evolution of micron and sub-micron sized dust grains ejected upon low-energy impact of a moderate-size object onto a lunar polar crater floor. Our analog is the LCROSS impact into Cabeus crater. Our primary objective is to model grain discharging as the plume propagates upwards from shadowed crater into sunlight.

  8. Dispersion of a Passive Scalar Fluctuating Plume in a Turbulent Boundary Layer. Part III: Stochastic Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marro, Massimo; Salizzoni, Pietro; Soulhac, Lionel; Cassiani, Massimo

    2018-01-01

    We analyze the reliability of the Lagrangian stochastic micromixing method in predicting higher-order statistics of the passive scalar concentration induced by an elevated source (of varying diameter) placed in a turbulent boundary layer. To that purpose we analyze two different modelling approaches by testing their results against the wind-tunnel measurements discussed in Part I (Nironi et al., Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 2015, Vol. 156, 415-446). The first is a probability density function (PDF) micromixing model that simulates the effects of the molecular diffusivity on the concentration fluctuations by taking into account the background particles. The second is a new model, named VPΓ, conceived in order to minimize the computational costs. This is based on the volumetric particle approach providing estimates of the first two concentration moments with no need for the simulation of the background particles. In this second approach, higher-order moments are computed based on the estimates of these two moments and under the assumption that the concentration PDF is a Gamma distribution. The comparisons concern the spatial distribution of the first four moments of the concentration and the evolution of the PDF along the plume centreline. The novelty of this work is twofold: (i) we perform a systematic comparison of the results of micro-mixing Lagrangian models against experiments providing profiles of the first four moments of the concentration within an inhomogeneous and anisotropic turbulent flow, and (ii) we show the reliability of the VPΓ model as an operational tool for the prediction of the PDF of the concentration.

  9. Dispersion of a Passive Scalar Fluctuating Plume in a Turbulent Boundary Layer. Part III: Stochastic Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marro, Massimo; Salizzoni, Pietro; Soulhac, Lionel; Cassiani, Massimo

    2018-06-01

    We analyze the reliability of the Lagrangian stochastic micromixing method in predicting higher-order statistics of the passive scalar concentration induced by an elevated source (of varying diameter) placed in a turbulent boundary layer. To that purpose we analyze two different modelling approaches by testing their results against the wind-tunnel measurements discussed in Part I (Nironi et al., Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 2015, Vol. 156, 415-446). The first is a probability density function (PDF) micromixing model that simulates the effects of the molecular diffusivity on the concentration fluctuations by taking into account the background particles. The second is a new model, named VPΓ, conceived in order to minimize the computational costs. This is based on the volumetric particle approach providing estimates of the first two concentration moments with no need for the simulation of the background particles. In this second approach, higher-order moments are computed based on the estimates of these two moments and under the assumption that the concentration PDF is a Gamma distribution. The comparisons concern the spatial distribution of the first four moments of the concentration and the evolution of the PDF along the plume centreline. The novelty of this work is twofold: (i) we perform a systematic comparison of the results of micro-mixing Lagrangian models against experiments providing profiles of the first four moments of the concentration within an inhomogeneous and anisotropic turbulent flow, and (ii) we show the reliability of the VPΓ model as an operational tool for the prediction of the PDF of the concentration.

  10. Modelling exhaust plume mixing in the near field of an aircraft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Garnier

    Full Text Available A simplified approach has been applied to analyse the mixing and entrainment processes of the engine exhaust through their interaction with the vortex wake of an aircraft. Our investigation is focused on the near field, extending from the exit nozzle until about 30 s after the wake is generated, in the vortex phase. This study was performed by using an integral model and a numerical simulation for two large civil aircraft: a two-engine Airbus 330 and a four-engine Boeing 747. The influence of the wing-tip vortices on the dilution ratio (defined as a tracer concentration shown. The mixing process is also affected by the buoyancy effect, but only after the jet regime, when the trapping in the vortex core has occurred. In the early wake, the engine jet location (i.e. inboard or outboard engine jet has an important influence on the mixing rate. The plume streamlines inside the vortices are subject to distortion and stretching, and the role of the descent of the vortices on the maximum tracer concentration is discussed. Qualitative comparison with contrail photograph shows similar features. Finally, tracer concentration of inboard engine centreline of B-747 are compared with other theoretical analyses and measured data.

  11. Hydrogeological modeling constraints provided by geophysical and geochemical mapping of a chlorinated ethenes plume in northern France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razafindratsima, Stephen; Guérin, Roger; Bendjoudi, Hocine; de Marsily, Ghislain

    2014-09-01

    A methodological approach is described which combines geophysical and geochemical data to delineate the extent of a chlorinated ethenes plume in northern France; the methodology was used to calibrate a hydrogeological model of the contaminants' migration and degradation. The existence of strong reducing conditions in some parts of the aquifer is first determined by measuring in situ the redox potential and dissolved oxygen, dissolved ferrous iron and chloride concentrations. Electrical resistivity imaging and electromagnetic mapping, using the Slingram method, are then used to determine the shape of the pollutant plume. A decreasing empirical exponential relation between measured chloride concentrations in the water and aquifer electrical resistivity is observed; the resistivity formation factor calculated at a few points also shows a major contribution of chloride concentration in the resistivity of the saturated porous medium. MODFLOW software and MT3D99 first-order parent-daughter chain reaction and the RT3D aerobic-anaerobic model for tetrachloroethene (PCE)/trichloroethene (TCE) dechlorination are finally used for a first attempt at modeling the degradation of the chlorinated ethenes. After calibration, the distribution of the chlorinated ethenes and their degradation products simulated with the model approximately reflects the mean measured values in the observation wells, confirming the data-derived image of the plume.

  12. Numerical modeling of the effects of fire-induced convection and fire-atmosphere interactions on wildfire spread and fire plume dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Ruiyu

    It is possible due to present day computing power to produce a fluid dynamical physically-based numerical solution to wildfire behavior, at least in the research mode. This type of wildfire modeling affords a flexibility and produces details that are not available in either current operational wildfire behavior models or field experiments. However before using these models to study wildfire, validation is necessary, and model results need to be systematically and objectively analyzed and compared to real fires. Plume theory and data from the Meteotron experiment, which was specially designed to provide results from measurements for the theoretical study of a convective plume produced by a high heat source at the ground, are used here to evaluate the fire plume properties simulated by two numerical wildfire models, the Fire Dynamics Simulator or FDS, and the Clark coupled atmosphere-fire model. The study indicates that the FDS produces good agreement with the plume theory and the Meteotron results. The study also suggests that the coupled atmosphere-fire model, a less explicit and ideally less computationally demanding model than the FDS; can produce good agreement, but that the agreement is sensitive to the method of putting the energy released from the fire into the atmosphere. The WFDS (Wildfire and wildland-urban interface FDS), an extension of the FDS to the vegetative fuel, and the Australian grass fire experiments are used to evaluate and improve the UULES-wildfire coupled model. Despite the simple fire parameterization in the UULES-wildfire coupled model, the fireline is fairly well predicted in terms of both shape and location in the simulation of Australian grass fire experiment F19. Finally, the UULES-wildfire coupled model is used to examine how the turbulent flow in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) affects the growth of the grass fires. The model fires showed significant randomness in fire growth: Fire spread is not deterministic in the ABL, and a

  13. Experimentally Identify the Effective Plume Chimney over a Natural Draft Chimney Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, M. M.; Chu, C. M.; Tahir, A. M.; Ismail, M. A. bin; Misran, M. S. bin; Ling, L. S.

    2017-07-01

    The demands of energy are in increasing order due to rapid industrialization and urbanization. The researchers and scientists are working hard to improve the performance of the industry so that the energy consumption can be reduced significantly. Industries like power plant, timber processing plant, oil refinery, etc. performance mainly depend on the cooling tower chimney’s performance, either natural draft or forced draft. Chimney is used to create sufficient draft, so that air can flow through it. Cold inflow or flow reversal at chimney exit is one of the main identified problems that may alter the overall plant performance. The presence Effective Plume Chimney (EPC) is an indication of cold inflow free operation of natural draft chimney. Different mathematical model equations are used to estimate the EPC height over the heat exchanger or hot surface. In this paper, it is aim to identify the EPC experimentally. In order to do that, horizontal temperature profiling is done at the exit of the chimneys of face area 0.56m2, 1.00m2 and 2.25m2. A wire mesh screen is installed at chimneys exit to ensure cold inflow chimney operation. It is found that EPC exists in all modified chimney models and the heights of EPC varied from 1 cm to 9 cm. The mathematical models indicate that the estimated heights of EPC varied from 1 cm to 2.3 cm. Smoke test is also conducted to ensure the existence of EPC and cold inflow free option of chimney. Smoke test results confirmed the presence of EPC and cold inflow free operation of chimney. The performance of the cold inflow free chimney is increased by 50% to 90% than normal chimney.

  14. Verifying and Validating Simulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This presentation is a high-level discussion of the Verification and Validation (V&V) of computational models. Definitions of V&V are given to emphasize that “validation” is never performed in a vacuum; it accounts, instead, for the current state-of-knowledge in the discipline considered. In particular comparisons between physical measurements and numerical predictions should account for their respective sources of uncertainty. The differences between error (bias), aleatoric uncertainty (randomness) and epistemic uncertainty (ignorance, lack-of- knowledge) are briefly discussed. Four types of uncertainty in physics and engineering are discussed: 1) experimental variability, 2) variability and randomness, 3) numerical uncertainty and 4) model-form uncertainty. Statistical sampling methods are available to propagate, and analyze, variability and randomness. Numerical uncertainty originates from the truncation error introduced by the discretization of partial differential equations in time and space. Model-form uncertainty is introduced by assumptions often formulated to render a complex problem more tractable and amenable to modeling and simulation. The discussion concludes with high-level guidance to assess the “credibility” of numerical simulations, which stems from the level of rigor with which these various sources of uncertainty are assessed and quantified.

  15. Geochemistry Model Validation Report: External Accumulation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarrabi, K.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the External Accumulation Model that predicts accumulation of fissile materials in fractures and lithophysae in the rock beneath a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. (Lithophysae are voids in the rock having concentric shells of finely crystalline alkali feldspar, quartz, and other materials that were formed due to entrapped gas that later escaped, DOE 1998, p. A-25.) The intended use of this model is to estimate the quantities of external accumulation of fissile material for use in external criticality risk assessments for different types of degrading WPs: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The scope of the model validation is to (1) describe the model and the parameters used to develop the model, (2) provide rationale for selection of the parameters by comparisons with measured values, and (3) demonstrate that the parameters chosen are the most conservative selection for external criticality risk calculations. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, a Pu-ceramic WP is used as an example. The model begins with a source term from separately documented EQ6 calculations; where the source term is defined as the composition versus time of the water flowing out of a breached waste package (WP). Next, PHREEQC, is used to simulate the transport and interaction of the source term with the resident water and fractured tuff below the repository. In these simulations the primary mechanism for accumulation is mixing of the high pH, actinide-laden source term with resident water; thus lowering the pH values sufficiently for fissile minerals to become insoluble and precipitate. In the final section of the model, the outputs from PHREEQC, are processed to produce mass of accumulation

  16. Modelling of Far-Field Mixing of Industrial Effluent Plume in Ambient ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study sought to describe the dynamics of advective and dispersive transport of the effluent plume in the river and also ascertain the extent of its effect from discharge location to downstream far-field region. A homogenous differential equation was used as analytics to describe the physical process that describes the ...

  17. Modelling of transport and biogeochemical processes in pollution plumes: Vejen landfill, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brun, A.; Engesgaard, Peter Knudegaard; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

    2002-01-01

    A biogeochemical transport code is used to simulate leachate attenuation. biogeochemical processes. and development of redox zones in a pollution plume downstream of the Vejen landfill in Denmark. Calibration of the degradation parameters resulted in a good agreement with the observed distribution...

  18. Modelling of N2-Thruster Plumes Based on Experiments in STG

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Plaehn, Klaus

    2000-01-01

    ... (no chemical reactions, constant ratio of specific heats). The essential parameter to be varied was the nozzle flow Reynolds number, the quantities to be measured were the Pitot pressure at the nozzle exit and the molecule number flux in the plume...

  19. Model calculations of the chemical processes occurring in the plume of a coal-fired power plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meagher, J F; Luria, M

    1982-02-01

    Computer simulations of the homogeneous, gas phase chemical reactions which occur in the plume of a coal-fired power plant were conducted in an effort to understand the influence of various environmental parameters on the production of secondary pollutants. Input data for the model were selected to reproduce the dilution of a plume from a medium-sized power plant. The environmental conditions chosen were characteristic of those found during mid-August in the south-eastern United States. Under most conditions examined, it was found that hydroxyl radicals were the most important species in the homogeneous conversion of stack gases into secondary pollutants. Other free radicals, such as HO/sub 2/ and CH/sub 3/O/sub 2/, exceeded the contribution of HO radicals only when high background hydrocarbon concentrations are used. The conversion rates calculated for the oxidation of SO/sub 2/ to SO/sub 4//sup 2 -/ in these plumes were consistent with those determined experimentally. The concentrations and relative proportions of NO/sub x/ (from the power plant) and reactive hydrocarbons (from the background air) determine, to a large extent, the plume reactivity. Free radical production is suppressed during the initial stages of dilution due to the high NO/sub x/ levels. Significant dilution is required before a suitable mix is attained which can sustain the free radical chain processes common to smog chemistry. In most cases, the free radical concentrations were found to pass through maxima and return to background levels. Under typical summertime conditions, the hyroxyl radical concentration was found to reach a maximum at a HC/NO/sub x/ ratio of approximately 20.

  20. Modeling the South American regional smoke plume: aerosol optical depth variability and surface shortwave flux perturbation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. E. Rosário

    2013-03-01

    . This highlights the need to improve modelling of the regional smoke plume in order to enhance the accuracy of the radiative energy budget. An aerosol optical model based on the mean intensive properties of smoke from the southern part of the Amazon basin produced a radiative flux perturbation efficiency (RFPE of −158 Wm−2/AOD550 nm at noon. This value falls between −154 Wm−2/AOD550 nm and −187 Wm−2/AOD550 nm, the range obtained when spatially varying optical models were considered. The 24 h average surface radiative flux perturbation over the biomass burning season varied from −55 Wm−2 close to smoke sources in the southern part of the Amazon basin and cerrado to −10 Wm−2 in remote regions of the southeast Brazilian coast.

  1. Data and Model-Driven Decision Support for Environmental Management of a Chromium Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 13264

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vesselinov, Velimir V.; Broxton, David; Birdsell, Kay; Reneau, Steven; Harp, Dylan; Mishra, Phoolendra [Computational Earth Science - EES-16, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM 87545 (United States); Katzman, Danny; Goering, Tim [Environmental Programs (ADEP), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM 87545 (United States); Vaniman, David; Longmire, Pat; Fabryka-Martin, June; Heikoop, Jeff; Ding, Mei; Hickmott, Don; Jacobs, Elaine [Earth Systems Observations - EES-14, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM 87545 (United States)

    2013-07-01

    A series of site investigations and decision-support analyses have been performed related to a chromium plume in the regional aquifer beneath the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Based on the collected data and site information, alternative conceptual and numerical models representing governing subsurface processes with different complexity and resolution have been developed. The current conceptual model is supported by multiple lines of evidence based on comprehensive analyses of the available data and modeling results. The model is applied for decision-support analyses related to estimation of contaminant- arrival locations and chromium mass flux reaching the regional aquifer, and to optimization of a site monitoring-well network. Plume characterization is a challenging and non-unique problem because multiple models and contamination scenarios are consistent with the site data and conceptual knowledge. To solve this complex problem, an advanced methodology based on model calibration and uncertainty quantification has been developed within the computational framework MADS (http://mads.lanl.gov). This work implements high-performance computing and novel, efficient and robust model analysis techniques for optimization and uncertainty quantification (ABAGUS, Squads, multi-try (multi-start) techniques), which allow for solving problems with large degrees of freedom. (authors)

  2. Numerically Modeling the Erosion of Lunar Soil by Rocket Exhaust Plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    In preparation for the Apollo program, Leonard Roberts of the NASA Langley Research Center developed a remarkable analytical theory that predicts the blowing of lunar soil and dust beneath a rocket exhaust plume. Roberts assumed that the erosion rate was determined by the excess shear stress in the gas (the amount of shear stress greater than what causes grains to roll). The acceleration of particles to their final velocity in the gas consumes a portion of the shear stress. The erosion rate continues to increase until the excess shear stress is exactly consumed, thus determining the erosion rate. Roberts calculated the largest and smallest particles that could be eroded based on forces at the particle scale, but the erosion rate equation assumed that only one particle size existed in the soil. He assumed that particle ejection angles were determined entirely by the shape of the terrain, which acts like a ballistic ramp, with the particle aerodynamics being negligible. The predicted erosion rate and the upper limit of particle size appeared to be within an order of magnitude of small-scale terrestrial experiments but could not be tested more quantitatively at the time. The lower limit of particle size and the predictions of ejection angle were not tested. We observed in the Apollo landing videos that the ejection angles of particles streaming out from individual craters were time-varying and correlated to the Lunar Module thrust, thus implying that particle aerodynamics dominate. We modified Roberts theory in two ways. First, we used ad hoc the ejection angles measured in the Apollo landing videos, in lieu of developing a more sophisticated method. Second, we integrated Roberts equations over the lunar-particle size distribution and obtained a compact expression that could be implemented in a numerical code. We also added a material damage model that predicts the number and size of divots which the impinging particles will cause in hardware surrounding the landing

  3. Export of reactive nitrogen from coal-fired power plants in the U.S.: Estimates from a plume-in-grid modeling study - article no. D04308

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vijayaraghavan, K.; Zhang, Y.; Seigneur, C.; Karamchandani, P.; Snell, H.E.

    2009-02-15

    The export of reactive nitrogen (nitrogen oxides and their oxidation products, collectively referred to as NOy) from coal-fired power plants in the U.S. to the rest of the world could have a significant global contribution to ozone. Traditional Eulerian gridded air quality models cannot characterize accurately the chemistry and transport of plumes from elevated point sources such as power plant stacks. A state-of-the-science plume-in-grid (PinG) air quality model, a reactive plume model embedded in an Eulerian gridded model, is used to estimate the export of NOy from 25 large coal-fired power plants in the U. S. (in terms of NOx and SO{sub 2} emissions) in July 2001 to the global atmosphere. The PinG model used is the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model with Advanced Plume Treatment (CMAQ-APT). A benchmark simulation with only the gridded model, CMAQ, is also conducted for comparison purposes. The simulations with and without advanced plume treatment show differences in the calculated export of NOy from the 25 plants considered reflecting the effect of using a detailed and explicit treatment of plume transport and chemistry. The advanced plume treatment results in 31% greater simulated export of NOy compared to the purely grid-based modeling approach. The export efficiency of NOy (the fraction of NOy emitted that is exported) is predicted to be 21% without APT and 27% with APT. When considering only export through the eastern boundary across the Atlantic, CMAQ-APT predicts that the export efficiency is 24% and that 2% of NOy is exported as NOx, 49% as inorganic nitrate, and 25% as PAN. These results are in reasonably good agreement with an analysis reported in the literature of aircraft measurements over the North Atlantic.

  4. Buoyant plume calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penner, J.E.; Haselman, L.C.; Edwards, L.L.

    1985-01-01

    Smoke from raging fires produced in the aftermath of a major nuclear exchange has been predicted to cause large decreases in surface temperatures. However, the extent of the decrease and even the sign of the temperature change, depend on how the smoke is distributed with altitude. We present a model capable of evaluating the initial distribution of lofted smoke above a massive fire. Calculations are shown for a two-dimensional slab version of the model and a full three-dimensional version. The model has been evaluated by simulating smoke heights for the Hamburg firestorm of 1943 and a smaller scale oil fire which occurred in Long Beach in 1958. Our plume heights for these fires are compared to those predicted by the classical Morton-Taylor-Turner theory for weakly buoyant plumes. We consider the effect of the added buoyancy caused by condensation of water-laden ground level air being carried to high altitude with the convection column as well as the effects of background wind on the calculated smoke plume heights for several fire intensities. We find that the rise height of the plume depends on the assumed background atmospheric conditions as well as the fire intensity. Little smoke is injected into the stratosphere unless the fire is unusually intense, or atmospheric conditions are more unstable than we have assumed. For intense fires significant amounts of water vapor are condensed raising the possibility of early scavenging of smoke particles by precipitation. 26 references, 11 figures

  5. Modelling of coastal current and thermal plume dispersion - A case study off Nagapattinam, east coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Babu, M.T.; Vethamony, P.; Suryanarayana, A.; Gouveia, A.D.

    representing the monsoons and the transition periods are selected to study the seasonal variability of simulated currents and thermal plumes. The plume showed northward spreading during March and July and southward during December. During October the spreading...

  6. Modelling of transport and biogeochemical processes in pollution plumes: Literature review of model development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brun, A.; Engesgaard, Peter Knudegaard

    2002-01-01

    A literature survey shows how biogeochemical (coupled organic and inorganic reaction processes) transport models are based on considering the complete biodegradation process as either a single- or as a two-step process. It is demonstrated that some two-step process models rely on the Partial...... Equilibrium Approach (PEA). The PEA assumes the organic degradation step, and not the electron acceptor consumption step, is rate limiting. This distinction is not possible in one-step process models, where consumption of both the electron donor and acceptor are treated kinetically. A three-dimensional, two......-step PEA model is developed. The model allows for Monod kinetics and biomass growth, features usually included only in one-step process models. The biogeochemical part of the model is tested for a batch system with degradation of organic matter under the consumption of a sequence of electron acceptors...

  7. Modelling present-day basal melt rates for Antarctic ice shelves using a parametrization of buoyant meltwater plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazeroms, Werner M. J.; Jenkins, Adrian; Hilmar Gudmundsson, G.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

    2018-01-01

    Basal melting below ice shelves is a major factor in mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which can contribute significantly to possible future sea-level rise. Therefore, it is important to have an adequate description of the basal melt rates for use in ice-dynamical models. Most current ice models use rather simple parametrizations based on the local balance of heat between ice and ocean. In this work, however, we use a recently derived parametrization of the melt rates based on a buoyant meltwater plume travelling upward beneath an ice shelf. This plume parametrization combines a non-linear ocean temperature sensitivity with an inherent geometry dependence, which is mainly described by the grounding-line depth and the local slope of the ice-shelf base. For the first time, this type of parametrization is evaluated on a two-dimensional grid covering the entire Antarctic continent. In order to apply the essentially one-dimensional parametrization to realistic ice-shelf geometries, we present an algorithm that determines effective values for the grounding-line depth and basal slope in any point beneath an ice shelf. Furthermore, since detailed knowledge of temperatures and circulation patterns in the ice-shelf cavities is sparse or absent, we construct an effective ocean temperature field from observational data with the purpose of matching (area-averaged) melt rates from the model with observed present-day melt rates. Our results qualitatively replicate large-scale observed features in basal melt rates around Antarctica, not only in terms of average values, but also in terms of the spatial pattern, with high melt rates typically occurring near the grounding line. The plume parametrization and the effective temperature field presented here are therefore promising tools for future simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet requiring a more realistic oceanic forcing.

  8. Experimental Melting Study of Basalt-Peridotite Hybrid Source: Melting model of Hawaiian plume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, E.; Gao, S.

    2015-12-01

    Eclogite component entrained in ascending plume is considered to be essentially important in producing flood basalts (e.g., Columbia River basalt, Takahashi et al., 1998 EPSL), alkalic OIBs (e.g., Kogiso et al.,2003), ferro-picrites (Tuff et al.,2005) and Hawaiian shield lavas (e.g., Hauri, 1996; Takahashi & Nakajima, 2002, Sobolev et al.,2005). Size of the entrained eclogite, which controls the reaction rates with ambient peridotite, however, is very difficult to constrain using geophysical observation. Among Hawaiian shield volcanoes, Koolau is the most enriched end-member in eclogite component (Frey et al, 1994). Reconstruction of Koolau volcano based on submarine study on Nuuanu landslide (AGU Monograph vol.128, 2002, Takahashi Garcia Lipman eds.) revealed that silica-rich tholeiite appeared only at the last stage (Makapuu stage) of Koolau volcano. Chemical compositions of lavas as well as isotopes change abruptly and coherently across a horizon (Shinozaki et al. and Tanaka et al. ibid.). Based on these observation, Takahashi & Nakajima (2002 ibid) proposed that the Makapuu stage lava in Koolau volcano was supplied from a single large eclogite block. In order to study melting process in Hawaiian plume, high-pressure melting experiments were carried out under dry and hydrous conditions with layered eclogite/peridotite starting materials. Detail of our experiments will be given by Gao et al (2015 AGU). Combined previous field observation with new set of experiments, we propose that variation in SiO2 among Hawaiian tholeiites represent varying degree of wall-rock interaction between eclogite and ambient peridotite. Makapuu stage lavas in Koolau volcano represents eclogite partial melts formed at ~3 GPa with various amount of xenocrystic olivines derived from Pacific plate. In other words, we propose that "primary magma" in the melting column of Hawaiian plume ranges from basaltic andesite to ferro-picrite depending on the lithology of the source. Solidus of

  9. Validation of models with multivariate output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rebba, Ramesh; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2006-01-01

    This paper develops metrics for validating computational models with experimental data, considering uncertainties in both. A computational model may generate multiple response quantities and the validation experiment might yield corresponding measured values. Alternatively, a single response quantity may be predicted and observed at different spatial and temporal points. Model validation in such cases involves comparison of multiple correlated quantities. Multiple univariate comparisons may give conflicting inferences. Therefore, aggregate validation metrics are developed in this paper. Both classical and Bayesian hypothesis testing are investigated for this purpose, using multivariate analysis. Since, commonly used statistical significance tests are based on normality assumptions, appropriate transformations are investigated in the case of non-normal data. The methodology is implemented to validate an empirical model for energy dissipation in lap joints under dynamic loading

  10. Radiative modeling and characterization of aerosol plumes hyper-spectral imagery; Modelisation radiative et caracterisation des panaches d'aerosols en imagerie hyperspectrale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alakian, A

    2008-03-15

    This thesis aims at characterizing aerosols from plumes (biomass burning, industrial discharges, etc.) with hyper-spectral imagery. We want to estimate the optical properties of emitted particles and also their micro-physical properties such as number, size distribution and composition. To reach our goal, we have built a forward semi-analytical model, named APOM (Aerosol Plume Optical Model), which allows to simulate the radiative effects of aerosol plumes in the spectral range [0,4-2,5 {mu}m] for nadir viewing sensors. Mathematical formulation and model coefficients are obtained from simulations performed with the radiative transfer code COMANCHE. APOM is assessed on simulated data and proves to be accurate with modeling errors between 1% and 3%. Three retrieval methods using APOM have been developed: L-APOM, M-APOM and A-APOM. These methods take advantage of spectral and spatial dimensions in hyper-spectral images. L-APOM and M-APOM assume a priori knowledge on particles but can estimate their optical and micro-physical properties. Their performances on simulated data are quite promising. A-APOM method does not require any a priori knowledge on particles but only estimates their optical properties. However, it still needs improvements before being usable. On real images, inversion provides satisfactory results for plumes above water but meets some difficulties for plumes above vegetation, which underlines some possibilities of improvement for the retrieval algorithm. (author)

  11. Plume and Dose Modeling Performed to Assess Waste Management Enhancements Associated with Envirocare's Decision to Purchase of an Engineered Rail Rollover Facility Enclosure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, T.; Clayman, B.

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes the modeling performed on a proposed enclosure for the existing railcar rollover facility located in Clive, Utah at a radioactive waste disposal site owned and operated by Envirocare of Utah, Inc. (Envirocare). The dose and plume modeling information was used as a tool to justify the decision to make the capital purchase and realize the modeled performance enhancements

  12. Feature Extraction for Structural Dynamics Model Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrar, Charles [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nishio, Mayuko [Yokohama University; Hemez, Francois [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Stull, Chris [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Park, Gyuhae [Chonnam Univesity; Cornwell, Phil [Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology; Figueiredo, Eloi [Universidade Lusófona; Luscher, D. J. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Worden, Keith [University of Sheffield

    2016-01-13

    As structural dynamics becomes increasingly non-modal, stochastic and nonlinear, finite element model-updating technology must adopt the broader notions of model validation and uncertainty quantification. For example, particular re-sampling procedures must be implemented to propagate uncertainty through a forward calculation, and non-modal features must be defined to analyze nonlinear data sets. The latter topic is the focus of this report, but first, some more general comments regarding the concept of model validation will be discussed.

  13. Model Validation in Ontology Based Transformations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús M. Almendros-Jiménez

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Model Driven Engineering (MDE is an emerging approach of software engineering. MDE emphasizes the construction of models from which the implementation should be derived by applying model transformations. The Ontology Definition Meta-model (ODM has been proposed as a profile for UML models of the Web Ontology Language (OWL. In this context, transformations of UML models can be mapped into ODM/OWL transformations. On the other hand, model validation is a crucial task in model transformation. Meta-modeling permits to give a syntactic structure to source and target models. However, semantic requirements have to be imposed on source and target models. A given transformation will be sound when source and target models fulfill the syntactic and semantic requirements. In this paper, we present an approach for model validation in ODM based transformations. Adopting a logic programming based transformational approach we will show how it is possible to transform and validate models. Properties to be validated range from structural and semantic requirements of models (pre and post conditions to properties of the transformation (invariants. The approach has been applied to a well-known example of model transformation: the Entity-Relationship (ER to Relational Model (RM transformation.

  14. Small rocket exhaust plume data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirivella, J. E.; Moynihan, P. I.; Simon, W.

    1972-01-01

    During recent cryodeposit tests with an 0.18-N thruster, the mass flux in the plume back field was measured for the first time for nitrogen, carbon dioxide, and a mixture of nitrogen, hydrogen, and ammonia at various inlet pressures. This mixture simulated gases that would be generated by a hydrazine plenum attitude propulsion system. The measurements furnish a base upon which to build a mathematical model of plume back flow that will be used in predicting the mass distribution in the boundary region of other plumes. The results are analyzed and compared with existing analytical predictions.

  15. A broad view of model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsang, C.F.

    1989-10-01

    The safety assessment of a nuclear waste repository requires the use of models. Such models need to be validated to ensure, as much as possible, that they are a good representation of the actual processes occurring in the real system. In this paper we attempt to take a broad view by reviewing step by step the modeling process and bringing out the need to validating every step of this process. This model validation includes not only comparison of modeling results with data from selected experiments, but also evaluation of procedures for the construction of conceptual models and calculational models as well as methodologies for studying data and parameter correlation. The need for advancing basic scientific knowledge in related fields, for multiple assessment groups, and for presenting our modeling efforts in open literature to public scrutiny is also emphasized. 16 refs

  16. Establishing model credibility involves more than validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, T.

    1991-01-01

    One widely used definition of validation is that the quantitative test of the performance of a model through the comparison of model predictions to independent sets of observations from the system being simulated. The ability to show that the model predictions compare well with observations is often thought to be the most rigorous test that can be used to establish credibility for a model in the scientific community. However, such tests are only part of the process used to establish credibility, and in some cases may be either unnecessary or misleading. Naylor and Finger extended the concept of validation to include the establishment of validity for the postulates embodied in the model and the test of assumptions used to select postulates for the model. Validity of postulates is established through concurrence by experts in the field of study that the mathematical or conceptual model contains the structural components and mathematical relationships necessary to adequately represent the system with respect to the goals for the model. This extended definition of validation provides for consideration of the structure of the model, not just its performance, in establishing credibility. Evaluation of a simulation model should establish the correctness of the code and the efficacy of the model within its domain of applicability. (24 refs., 6 figs.)

  17. On the significance of contaminant plume-scale and dose-response models in defining hydrogeological characterization needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Barros, F.; Rubin, Y.; Maxwell, R.; Bai, H.

    2007-12-01

    Defining rational and effective hydrogeological data acquisition strategies is of crucial importance since financial resources available for such efforts are always limited. Usually such strategies are developed with the goal of reducing uncertainty, but less often they are developed in the context of the impacts of uncertainty. This paper presents an approach for determining site characterization needs based on human health risk factors. The main challenge is in striking a balance between improved definition of hydrogeological, behavioral and physiological parameters. Striking this balance can provide clear guidance on setting priorities for data acquisition and for better estimating adverse health effects in humans. This paper addresses this challenge through theoretical developments and numerical testing. We will report on a wide range of factors that affect the site characterization needs including contaminant plume's dimensions, travel distances and other length scales that characterize the transport problem, as well as health risk models. We introduce a new graphical tool that allows one to investigate the relative impact of hydrogeological and physiological parameters in risk. Results show that the impact of uncertainty reduction in the risk-related parameters decreases with increasing distances from the contaminant source. Also, results indicate that human health risk becomes less sensitive to hydrogeological measurements when dealing with ergodic plumes. This indicates that under ergodic conditions, uncertainty reduction in human health risk may benefit from better understanding of the physiological component as opposed to a detailed hydrogeological characterization

  18. Base Flow Model Validation, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The innovation is the systematic "building-block" validation of CFD/turbulence models employing a GUI driven CFD code (RPFM) and existing as well as new data sets to...

  19. Model validation: Correlation for updating

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, a review is presented of the various methods which ... to make a direct and objective comparison of specific dynamic properties, measured ..... stiffness matrix is available from the analytical model, is that of reducing or condensing.

  20. Validating EHR clinical models using ontology patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Costa, Catalina; Schulz, Stefan

    2017-12-01

    Clinical models are artefacts that specify how information is structured in electronic health records (EHRs). However, the makeup of clinical models is not guided by any formal constraint beyond a semantically vague information model. We address this gap by advocating ontology design patterns as a mechanism that makes the semantics of clinical models explicit. This paper demonstrates how ontology design patterns can validate existing clinical models using SHACL. Based on the Clinical Information Modelling Initiative (CIMI), we show how ontology patterns detect both modeling and terminology binding errors in CIMI models. SHACL, a W3C constraint language for the validation of RDF graphs, builds on the concept of "Shape", a description of data in terms of expected cardinalities, datatypes and other restrictions. SHACL, as opposed to OWL, subscribes to the Closed World Assumption (CWA) and is therefore more suitable for the validation of clinical models. We have demonstrated the feasibility of the approach by manually describing the correspondences between six CIMI clinical models represented in RDF and two SHACL ontology design patterns. Using a Java-based SHACL implementation, we found at least eleven modeling and binding errors within these CIMI models. This demonstrates the usefulness of ontology design patterns not only as a modeling tool but also as a tool for validation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Verification and validation for waste disposal models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-07-01

    A set of evaluation criteria has been developed to assess the suitability of current verification and validation techniques for waste disposal methods. A survey of current practices and techniques was undertaken and evaluated using these criteria with the items most relevant to waste disposal models being identified. Recommendations regarding the most suitable verification and validation practices for nuclear waste disposal modelling software have been made

  2. Effects of wildland fire smoke on a tree-roosting bat: integrating a plume model, field measurements, and mammalian dose-response relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.B. Dickinson; J.C. Norris; A.S. Bova; R.L. Kremens; V. Young; M.J. Lacki

    2010-01-01

    Faunal injury and mortality in wildland fires is a concern for wildlife and fire management although little work has been done on the mechanisms by which exposures cause their effects. In this paper, we use an integral plume model, field measurements, and models of carbon monoxide and heat effects to explore risk to tree-roosting bats during prescribed fires in mixed-...

  3. Tracer travel time and model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsang, Chin-Fu.

    1988-01-01

    The performance assessment of a nuclear waste repository demands much more in comparison to the safety evaluation of any civil constructions such as dams, or the resource evaluation of a petroleum or geothermal reservoir. It involves the estimation of low probability (low concentration) of radionuclide transport extrapolated 1000's of years into the future. Thus models used to make these estimates need to be carefully validated. A number of recent efforts have been devoted to the study of this problem. Some general comments on model validation were given by Tsang. The present paper discusses some issues of validation in regards to radionuclide transport. 5 refs

  4. Modeling Multiple-Core Updraft Plume Rise for an Aerial Ignition Prescribed Burn by Coupling Daysmoke with a Cellular Automata Fire Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    G. L Achtemeier; S. L. Goodrick; Y. Liu

    2012-01-01

    Smoke plume rise is critically dependent on plume updraft structure. Smoke plumes from landscape burns (forest and agricultural burns) are typically structured into “sub-plumes” or multiple-core updrafts with the number of updraft cores depending on characteristics of the landscape, fire, fuels, and weather. The number of updraft cores determines the efficiency of...

  5. Using ASCEM Modeling and Visualization to Inform Stakeholders of Contaminant Plume Evolution and Remediation Efficacy at F-Basin Savannah River, SC – 15156

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flach, G. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wainwright, H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Molins, S. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Davis, J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Arora, B. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Faybishenko, B. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Krishnan, H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hubbard, S. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Flach, G. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Denham, M. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Eddy-Dilek, C. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Moulton, D. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Lipnikov, K. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Gable, C. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Miller, T. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Freshley, M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-01-28

    Communication with stakeholders, regulatory agencies, and the public is an essential part of implementing different remediation and monitoring activities, and developing site closure strategies at contaminated sites. Modeling of contaminant plume evolution plays a critical role in estimating the benefit, cost, and risk of particular options. At the same time, effective visualization of monitoring data and modeling results are particularly important for conveying the significance of the results and observations. In this paper, we present the results of the Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management (ASCEM) project, including the discussion of the capabilities of newly developed ASCEM software package, along with its application to the F-Area Seepage Basins located in the U.S. Department of Energy Savannah River Site (SRS). ASCEM software includes state-of-the-art numerical methods for simulating complex flow and reactive transport, as well as various toolsets such as a graphical user interface (GUI), visualization, data management, uncertainty quantification, and parameter estimation. Using this software, we have developed an advanced visualization of tritium plume migration coupled with a data management system, and simulated a three-dimensional model of flow and plume evolution on a high-performance computing platform. We evaluated the effect of engineered flow barriers on a nonreactive tritium plume, through advanced plume visualization and modeling of tritium plume migration. In addition, we developed a geochemical reaction network to describe complex geochemical processes at the site, and evaluated the impact of coupled hydrological and geochemical heterogeneity. These results are expected to support SRS’s monitoring activities and operational decisions.

  6. Particle Simulation of Pulsed Plasma Thruster Plumes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Boyd, Ian

    2002-01-01

    .... Our modeling had made progress in al aspects of simulating these complex devices including Teflon ablation, plasma formation, electro-magnetic acceleration, plume expansion, and particulate transport...

  7. Validating the passenger traffic model for Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgård, Christian Hansen; VUK, Goran

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents a comprehensive validation procedure for the passenger traffic model for Copenhagen based on external data from the Danish national travel survey and traffic counts. The model was validated for the years 2000 to 2004, with 2004 being of particular interest because the Copenhagen...... matched the observed traffic better than those of the transit assignment model. With respect to the metro forecasts, the model over-predicts metro passenger flows by 10% to 50%. The wide range of findings from the project resulted in two actions. First, a project was started in January 2005 to upgrade...

  8. Wintertime Overnight NOx Removal in a Southeastern United States Coal-fired Power Plant Plume: A Model for Understanding Winter NOx Processing and its Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fibiger, Dorothy L.; McDuffie, Erin E.; Dubé, William P.; Aikin, Kenneth C.; Lopez-Hilfiker, Felipe D.; Lee, Ben H.; Green, Jaime R.; Fiddler, Marc N.; Holloway, John S.; Ebben, Carlena; Sparks, Tamara L.; Wooldridge, Paul; Weinheimer, Andrew J.; Montzka, Denise D.; Apel, Eric C.; Hornbrook, Rebecca S.; Hills, Alan J.; Blake, Nicola J.; DiGangi, Josh P.; Wolfe, Glenn M.; Bililign, Solomon; Cohen, Ronald C.; Thornton, Joel A.; Brown, Steven S.

    2018-01-01

    Nitric oxide (NO) is emitted in large quantities from coal-burning power plants. During the day, the plumes from these sources are efficiently mixed into the boundary layer, while at night, they may remain concentrated due to limited vertical mixing during which they undergo horizontal fanning. At night, the degree to which NO is converted to HNO3 and therefore unable to participate in next-day ozone (O3) formation depends on the mixing rate of the plume, the composition of power plant emissions, and the composition of the background atmosphere. In this study, we use observed plume intercepts from the Wintertime INvestigation of Transport, Emissions and Reactivity campaign to test sensitivity of overnight NOx removal to the N2O5 loss rate constant, plume mixing rate, background O3, and background levels of volatile organic compounds using a 2-D box model of power plant plume transport and chemistry. The factor that exerted the greatest control over NOx removal was the loss rate constant of N2O5. At the lowest observed N2O5 loss rate constant, no other combination of conditions converts more than 10% of the initial NOx to HNO3. The other factors did not influence NOx removal to the same degree.

  9. Wintertime Overnight NOx Removal in a Southeastern United States Coal-Fired Power Plant Plume: A Model for Understanding Winter NOx Processing and Its Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fibiger, Dorothy L.; McDuffie, Erin E.; Dube, William P.; Aikin, Kenneth C.; Lopez-Hilifiker, Felipe D.; Lee, Ben H.; Green, Jaime R.; Fiddler, Marc N.; Holloway, John S.; Ebben, Carlena; hide

    2018-01-01

    Nitric oxide (NO) is emitted in large quantities from coal-�burning power plants. During the day, the plumes from these sources are efficiently mixed into the boundary layer, while at night, they may remain concentrated due to limited vertical mixing during which they undergo horizontal fanning. At night, the degree to which NO is converted to HNO3 and therefore unable to participate in next-�day ozone (O3) formation depends on the mixing rate of the plume, the composition of power plant emissions, and the composition of the background atmosphere. In this study, we use observed plume intercepts from the Wintertime INvestigation of Transport, Emissions and Reactivity (WINTER) campaign to test sensitivity of overnight NOx removal to the N2O5 loss rate constant, plume mixing rate, background O3, and background levels of volatile organic compounds using a 2-�D box model of power plant plume transport and chemistry. The factor that exerted the greatest control over NOx removal was the loss rate constant of N2O5. At the lowest observed N2O5 loss rate constant, no other combination of conditions converts more than 10 percent of the initial NOx to HNO3. The other factors did not influence NOx removal to the same degree.

  10. Estimating the Exposure of Coral Reefs and Seagrass Meadows to Land-Sourced Contaminants in River Flood Plumes of the Great Barrier Reef: Validating a Simple Satellite Risk Framework with Environmental Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline Petus

    2016-03-01

    > 0.05, though reefs incurring higher risk scores showed relatively higher proportional macroalgae cover. Multi-annual risk score thresholds associated with loss of seagrass cover were defined, with lower risk scores (≤0.2 associated with a gain or little loss in seagrass cover (gain/−12%, medium risk scores (0.2–0.4 associated with moderate loss (−12/−30% and higher risk scores (>0.4 with the greatest loss in cover (>−30%. These thresholds were used to generate an intermediate river plume risk map specifically for seagrass meadows of the GBR. An intermediate river plume risk map for coral reefs was also developed by considering a multi-annual risk score threshold of 0.2—above which a higher proportion of macroalgae within the algal communities can be expected. These findings contribute to a long-term and adaptive approach to set relevant risk framework and thresholds for adverse biological responses in the GBR. The ecological thresholds and risk scores used in this study will be refined and validated through ongoing monitoring and assessment. As uncertainties are reduced, these risk metrics will provide important information for the development of strategies to manage water quality and ecosystem health.

  11. Development of a fluid model for DC arc plasma torches and its integration with downstream models of atmospheric plasma spray particle plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannamela, Michael J., III

    The plasma spray process uses plasma flames to melt micron sized particles of e.g. ceramic and propel the droplets to impinge upon and freeze to the target workpiece, forming a functional coating. Variations in the process arise from many sources, and because sensing of the process is imperfect one is motivated to pursue a modeling approach. This dissertation models the major elements of the process; the torch that produces the plasma flame, the jet of hot plasma issuing from the torch, and the plume of particles conveyed and heated by the jet. The plasma in the torch is modeled by a one-fluid magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) approach and it is found that the MHD equations can accurately predict the power dissipated in the bulk of the plasma, while special treatment is required in regions near the electrodes. Treatment of the cathode region is eased since it can be de-coupled from the bulk flow. Treatment of the anode region aims to extract the correct amount of power from the plasma. With MHD in the bulk and these special conditions at the electrode boundaries, the net power into the plasma can be matched with experiment. For one simulation of an SG-100 torch operating at 500A, the measured net power was 7.0kW while the computed net power was 7.1kW. Using outlet information from the torch, the impact of plasma arc oscillations on the free jet and on the in-flight particle states is predicted. The model of the plasma jet is validated against the existing LAVA code, and is able to predict the fraction of entrained air in the jet to within 20% of the experimental value. The variations in particle states due to the arc fluctuations are found to be similar in size to variations due to changes in particle injection velocity, and so cannot be neglected when considering particle state distributions. The end result of this work is to make available a complete chain of models for the plasma spray process, from torch input conditions to in-flight particle state.

  12. Plume rise measurements at Turbigo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anfossi, D

    1982-01-01

    This paper presents analyses of plume measurements obtained during that campaign by the ENEL ground-based Lidar. The five stacks of Turbigo Power Plant have different heights and emission parameters and their plumes usually combine, so a model for multiple sources was used to predict the plume rises. These predictions are compared with the observations. Measurements of sigma/sub v/ and sigma/sub z/ over the first 1000 m are compared with the curves derived from other observations in the Po Valley, using the no-lift balloon technique over the same range of downwind distance. Skewness and kurtosis distributions are shown, both along the vertical and the horizontal directions. In order to show the plume structure in more detail, we present two examples of Lidar-derived cross sections and the corresponding vertically and horizontally integrated concentration profiles.

  13. East Asian SO2 pollution plume over Europe – Part 1: Airborne trace gas measurements and source identification by particle dispersion model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Stohl

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available A large SO2-rich pollution plume of East Asian origin was detected by aircraft based CIMS (Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometry measurements at 3–7.5 km altitude over the North Atlantic. The measurements, which took place on 3 May 2006 aboard of the German research aircraft Falcon, were part of the INTEX-B (Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-B campaign. Additional trace gases (NO, NOy, CO, H2O were measured and used for comparison and source identification. The atmospheric SO2 mole fraction was markedly increased inside the plume and reached up to 900 pmol/mol. Accompanying lagrangian FLEXPART particle dispersion model simulations indicate that the probed pollution plume originated at low altitudes from densely populated and industrialized regions of East Asia, primarily China, about 8–12 days prior to the measurements.

  14. BIOMOVS: an international model validation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegg, C.; Johansson, G.

    1988-01-01

    BIOMOVS (BIOspheric MOdel Validation Study) is an international study where models used for describing the distribution of radioactive and nonradioactive trace substances in terrestrial and aquatic environments are compared and tested. The main objectives of the study are to compare and test the accuracy of predictions between such models, explain differences in these predictions, recommend priorities for future research concerning the improvement of the accuracy of model predictions and act as a forum for the exchange of ideas, experience and information. (author)

  15. BIOMOVS: An international model validation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegg, C.; Johansson, G.

    1987-01-01

    BIOMOVS (BIOspheric MOdel Validation Study) is an international study where models used for describing the distribution of radioactive and nonradioactive trace substances in terrestrial and aquatic environments are compared and tested. The main objectives of the study are to compare and test the accuracy of predictions between such models, explain differences in these predictions, recommend priorities for future research concerning the improvement of the accuracy of model predictions and act as a forum for the exchange of ideas, experience and information. (orig.)

  16. Model validation: a systemic and systematic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheng, G.; Elzas, M.S.; Cronhjort, B.T.

    1993-01-01

    The term 'validation' is used ubiquitously in association with the modelling activities of numerous disciplines including social, political natural, physical sciences, and engineering. There is however, a wide range of definitions which give rise to very different interpretations of what activities the process involves. Analyses of results from the present large international effort in modelling radioactive waste disposal systems illustrate the urgent need to develop a common approach to model validation. Some possible explanations are offered to account for the present state of affairs. The methodology developed treats model validation and code verification in a systematic fashion. In fact, this approach may be regarded as a comprehensive framework to assess the adequacy of any simulation study. (author)

  17. Modelling pollutants dispersion and plume rise from large hydrocarbon tank fires in neutrally stratified atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argyropoulos, C. D.; Sideris, G. M.; Christolis, M. N.; Nivolianitou, Z.; Markatos, N. C.

    2010-02-01

    Petrochemical industries normally use storage tanks containing large amounts of flammable and hazardous substances. Therefore, the occurrence of a tank fire, such as the large industrial accident on 11th December 2005 at Buncefield Oil Storage Depots, is possible and usually leads to fire and explosions. Experience has shown that the continuous production of black smoke from these fires due to the toxic gases from the combustion process, presents a potential environmental and health problem that is difficult to assess. The goals of the present effort are to estimate the height of the smoke plume, the ground-level concentrations of the toxic pollutants (smoke, SO 2, CO, PAHs, VOCs) and to characterize risk zones by comparing the ground-level concentrations with existing safety limits. For the application of the numerical procedure developed, an external floating-roof tank has been selected with dimensions of 85 m diameter and 20 m height. Results are presented and discussed. It is concluded that for all scenarios considered, the ground-level concentrations of smoke, SO 2, CO, PAHs and VOCs do not exceed the safety limit of IDLH and there are no "death zones" due to the pollutant concentrations.

  18. Ground-water models: Validate or invalidate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bredehoeft, J.D.; Konikow, Leonard F.

    1993-01-01

    The word validation has a clear meaning to both the scientific community and the general public. Within the scientific community the validation of scientific theory has been the subject of philosophical debate. The philosopher of science, Karl Popper, argued that scientific theory cannot be validated, only invalidated. Popper’s view is not the only opinion in this debate; however, many scientists today agree with Popper (including the authors). To the general public, proclaiming that a ground-water model is validated carries with it an aura of correctness that we do not believe many of us who model would claim. We can place all the caveats we wish, but the public has its own understanding of what the word implies. Using the word valid with respect to models misleads the public; verification carries with it similar connotations as far as the public is concerned. Our point is this: using the terms validation and verification are misleading, at best. These terms should be abandoned by the ground-water community.

  19. Model performance analysis and model validation in logistic regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Arboretti Giancristofaro

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a new model validation procedure for a logistic regression model is presented. At first, we illustrate a brief review of different techniques of model validation. Next, we define a number of properties required for a model to be considered "good", and a number of quantitative performance measures. Lastly, we describe a methodology for the assessment of the performance of a given model by using an example taken from a management study.

  20. Infrared Imagery of Solid Rocket Exhaust Plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Robert P.; Houston, Janice D.

    2011-01-01

    The Ares I Scale Model Acoustic Test program consisted of a series of 18 solid rocket motor static firings, simulating the liftoff conditions of the Ares I five-segment Reusable Solid Rocket Motor Vehicle. Primary test objectives included acquiring acoustic and pressure data which will be used to validate analytical models for the prediction of Ares 1 liftoff acoustics and ignition overpressure environments. The test article consisted of a 5% scale Ares I vehicle and launch tower mounted on the Mobile Launch Pad. The testing also incorporated several Water Sound Suppression Systems. Infrared imagery was employed during the solid rocket testing to support the validation or improvement of analytical models, and identify corollaries between rocket plume size or shape and the accompanying measured level of noise suppression obtained by water sound suppression systems.

  1. A discussion on validation of hydrogeological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrera, J.; Mousavi, S.F.; Usunoff, E.J.; Sanchez-Vila, X.; Galarza, G.

    1993-01-01

    Groundwater flow and solute transport are often driven by heterogeneities that elude easy identification. It is also difficult to select and describe the physico-chemical processes controlling solute behaviour. As a result, definition of a conceptual model involves numerous assumptions both on the selection of processes and on the representation of their spatial variability. Validating a numerical model by comparing its predictions with actual measurements may not be sufficient for evaluating whether or not it provides a good representation of 'reality'. Predictions will be close to measurements, regardless of model validity, if these are taken from experiments that stress well-calibrated model modes. On the other hand, predictions will be far from measurements when model parameters are very uncertain, even if the model is indeed a very good representation of the real system. Hence, we contend that 'classical' validation of hydrogeological models is not possible. Rather, models should be viewed as theories about the real system. We propose to follow a rigorous modeling approach in which different sources of uncertainty are explicitly recognized. The application of one such approach is illustrated by modeling a laboratory uranium tracer test performed on fresh granite, which was used as Test Case 1b in INTRAVAL. (author)

  2. Temperature profile retrieval in axisymmetric combustion plumes using multilayer perceptron modeling and spectral feature selection in the infrared CO2 emission band.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Cuesta, Esteban; de Castro, Antonio J; Galván, Inés M; López, Fernando

    2014-01-01

    In this work, a methodology based on the combined use of a multilayer perceptron model fed using selected spectral information is presented to invert the radiative transfer equation (RTE) and to recover the spatial temperature profile inside an axisymmetric flame. The spectral information is provided by the measurement of the infrared CO2 emission band in the 3-5 μm spectral region. A guided spectral feature selection was carried out using a joint criterion of principal component analysis and a priori physical knowledge of the radiative problem. After applying this guided feature selection, a subset of 17 wavenumbers was selected. The proposed methodology was applied over synthetic scenarios. Also, an experimental validation was carried out by measuring the spectral emission of the exhaust hot gas plume in a microjet engine with a Fourier transform-based spectroradiometer. Temperatures retrieved using the proposed methodology were compared with classical thermocouple measurements, showing a good agreement between them. Results obtained using the proposed methodology are very promising and can encourage the use of sensor systems based on the spectral measurement of the CO2 emission band in the 3-5 μm spectral window to monitor combustion processes in a nonintrusive way.

  3. Structural system identification: Structural dynamics model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Red-Horse, J.R.

    1997-04-01

    Structural system identification is concerned with the development of systematic procedures and tools for developing predictive analytical models based on a physical structure`s dynamic response characteristics. It is a multidisciplinary process that involves the ability (1) to define high fidelity physics-based analysis models, (2) to acquire accurate test-derived information for physical specimens using diagnostic experiments, (3) to validate the numerical simulation model by reconciling differences that inevitably exist between the analysis model and the experimental data, and (4) to quantify uncertainties in the final system models and subsequent numerical simulations. The goal of this project was to develop structural system identification techniques and software suitable for both research and production applications in code and model validation.

  4. Application of data assimilation to improve the forecasting capability of an atmospheric dispersion model for a radioactive plume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, H.J.; Han, M.H.; Hwang, W.T.; Kim, E.H.

    2008-01-01

    Modeling an atmospheric dispersion of a radioactive plume plays an influential role in assessing the environmental impacts caused by nuclear accidents. The performance of data assimilation techniques combined with Gaussian model outputs and measurements to improve forecasting abilities are investigated in this study. Tracer dispersion experiments are performed to produce field data by assuming a radiological emergency. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and linear regression filter are considered to assimilate the Gaussian model outputs with measurements. ANFIS is trained so that the model outputs are likely to be more accurate for the experimental data. Linear regression filter is designed to assimilate measurements similar to the ANFIS. It is confirmed that ANFIS could be an appropriate method for an improvement of the forecasting capability of an atmospheric dispersion model in the case of a radiological emergency, judging from the higher correlation coefficients between the measured and the assimilated ones rather than a linear regression filter. This kind of data assimilation method could support a decision-making system when deciding on the best available countermeasures for public health from among emergency preparedness alternatives

  5. Lagrangian Stochastic Dispersion Model IMS Model Suite and its Validation against Experimental Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartok, J.

    2010-01-01

    The dissertation presents IMS Lagrangian Dispersion Model, which is a 'new generation' Slovak dispersion model of long-range transport, developed by MicroStep-MIS. It solves trajectory equation for a vast number of Lagrangian 'particles' and stochastic equation that simulates the effects of turbulence. Model contains simulation of radioactive decay (full decay chains of more than 300 nuclides), and dry and wet deposition. Model was integrated into IMS Model Suite, a system in which several models and modules can run and cooperate, e.g. LAM model WRF preparing fine resolution meteorological data for dispersion. The main theme of the work is validation of dispersion model against large scale international campaigns CAPTEX and ETEX, which are two of the largest tracer experiments. Validation addressed treatment of missing data, data interpolation into comparable temporal and spatial representation. The best model results were observed for ETEX I, standard results for CAPTEXes and worst results for ETEX II, known in modelling community for its meteorological conditions that can be hardly resolved by models. The IMS Lagrangian Dispersion Model was identified as capable long range dispersion model for slowly- or nonreacting chemicals and radioactive matter. Influence of input data on simulation quality is discussed within the work. Additional modules were prepared according to praxis requirement: a) Recalculation of concentrations of radioactive pollutant into effective doses form inhalation, immersion in the plume and deposition. b) Dispersion of mineral dust was added and tested in desert locality, where wind and soil moisture were firstly analysed and forecast by WRF. The result was qualitatively verified in case study against satellite observations. (author)

  6. Advanced training simulator models. Implementation and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borkowsky, Jeffrey; Judd, Jerry; Belblidia, Lotfi; O'farrell, David; Andersen, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Modern training simulators are required to replicate plant data for both thermal-hydraulic and neutronic response. Replication is required such that reactivity manipulation on the simulator properly trains the operator for reactivity manipulation at the plant. This paper discusses advanced models which perform this function in real-time using the coupled code system THOR/S3R. This code system models the all fluids systems in detail using an advanced, two-phase thermal-hydraulic a model. The nuclear core is modeled using an advanced, three-dimensional nodal method and also by using cycle-specific nuclear data. These models are configured to run interactively from a graphical instructor station or handware operation panels. The simulator models are theoretically rigorous and are expected to replicate the physics of the plant. However, to verify replication, the models must be independently assessed. Plant data is the preferred validation method, but plant data is often not available for many important training scenarios. In the absence of data, validation may be obtained by slower-than-real-time transient analysis. This analysis can be performed by coupling a safety analysis code and a core design code. Such a coupling exists between the codes RELAP5 and SIMULATE-3K (S3K). RELAP5/S3K is used to validate the real-time model for several postulated plant events. (author)

  7. CFD investigation of balcony spill plumes in atria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCartney, C.J.; Lougheed, G.D.; Weckman, E.J.

    2004-01-01

    performed to optimize the grid design. The CFD model will be validated using the experimental data. The validated model will then be used to extend the experimental results to atrium heights greater than four stories. This model will also be used to compare balcony plume entrainment rates with values available in the literature for buoyant line plumes. (author)

  8. Space Shuttle main engine OPAD: The search for a hardware enhanced plume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, W. T.; Cooper, A. E.; Wallace, Tim L.; Buntine, W. L.; Whitaker, K. W.

    1993-01-01

    The process of applying spectroscopy to the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) for plume diagnostics, as it exists today, originated at Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, and its implementation was assured largely through the efforts of Sverdrup AEDC, in Tullahoma, Tennessee. This team continues to lead and guide efforts in the plume diagnostics arena. The process, Optical Plume Anomaly Detection (OPAD), formed the basis for various activities in the development of ground-based systems as well as the development of in-flight plume spectroscopy. OPAD currently provides and will continue to provide valuable information relative to future systems definitions, instrumentation development, code validation, and data diagnostic processing. OPAD is based on the detection of anomalous atomic and molecular species in the SSME plume using two complete, stand-alone optical spectrometers. To-date OPAD has acquired data on 44 test firings of the SSME at the Technology Test Bed (TTB) at MSFC. The purpose of this paper will be to provide an introduction to the OPAD system by discussing the process of obtaining data as well as the methods of examining and interpreting the data. It will encompass such issues as selection of instrumentation correlation of data to nominal engine operation, investigation of SSME component erosion via OPAD spectral data, necessity and benefits of plume seeding, application of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to data analysis, and the present status of efforts to quantify specie erosion utilizing standard plume and chemistry codes as well as radiative models currently under development.

  9. Plume Particle Collection and Sizing from Static Firing of Solid Rocket Motors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sambamurthi, Jay K.

    1995-01-01

    Thermal radiation from the plume of any solid rocket motor, containing aluminum as one of the propellant ingredients, is mainly from the microscopic, hot aluminum oxide particles in the plume. The plume radiation to the base components of the flight vehicle is primarily determined by the plume flowfield properties, the size distribution of the plume particles, and their optical properties. The optimum design of a vehicle base thermal protection system is dependent on the ability to accurately predict this intense thermal radiation using validated theoretical models. This article describes a successful effort to collect reasonably clean plume particle samples from the static firing of the flight simulation motor (FSM-4) on March 10, 1994 at the T-24 test bed at the Thiokol space operations facility as well as three 18.3% scaled MNASA motors tested at NASA/MSFC. Prior attempts to collect plume particles from the full-scale motor firings have been unsuccessful due to the extremely hostile thermal and acoustic environment in the vicinity of the motor nozzle.

  10. Space Shuttle main engine OPAD: The search for a hardware enhanced plume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, W. T.; Cooper, A. E.; Wallace, Tim L.; Buntine, W. L.; Whitaker, K. W.

    1993-11-01

    The process of applying spectroscopy to the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) for plume diagnostics, as it exists today, originated at Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, and its implementation was assured largely through the efforts of Sverdrup AEDC, in Tullahoma, Tennessee. This team continues to lead and guide efforts in the plume diagnostics arena. The process, Optical Plume Anomaly Detection (OPAD), formed the basis for various activities in the development of ground-based systems as well as the development of in-flight plume spectroscopy. OPAD currently provides and will continue to provide valuable information relative to future systems definitions, instrumentation development, code validation, and data diagnostic processing. OPAD is based on the detection of anomalous atomic and molecular species in the SSME plume using two complete, stand-alone optical spectrometers. To-date OPAD has acquired data on 44 test firings of the SSME at the Technology Test Bed (TTB) at MSFC. The purpose of this paper will be to provide an introduction to the OPAD system by discussing the process of obtaining data as well as the methods of examining and interpreting the data. It will encompass such issues as selection of instrumentation correlation of data to nominal engine operation, investigation of SSME component erosion via OPAD spectral data, necessity and benefits of plume seeding, application of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to data analysis, and the present status of efforts to quantify specie erosion utilizing standard plume and chemistry codes as well as radiative models currently under development.

  11. Understanding convective extreme precipitation scaling using observations and an entraining plume model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loriaux, J.M.; Lenderink, G.; De Roode, S.R.; Siebesma, A.P.

    2013-01-01

    Previously observed twice-Clausius–Clapeyron (2CC) scaling for extreme precipitation at hourly time scales has led to discussions about its origin. The robustness of this scaling is assessed by analyzing a subhourly dataset of 10-min resolution over the Netherlands. The results confirm the validity

  12. Validation of a phytoremediation computer model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corapcioglu, M Y; Sung, K; Rhykerd, R L; Munster, C; Drew, M [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    1999-01-01

    The use of plants to stimulate remediation of contaminated soil is an effective, low-cost cleanup method which can be applied to many different sites. A phytoremediation computer model has been developed to simulate how recalcitrant hydrocarbons interact with plant roots in unsaturated soil. A study was conducted to provide data to validate and calibrate the model. During the study, lysimeters were constructed and filled with soil contaminated with 10 [mg kg[sub -1

  13. Study of atmospheric stratification influence on pollutants dispersion using a numerical fluid mechanics model. Code-Saturne validation with the Prairie Grass experiment/Study of atmospheric stratification influence on pollutants dispersion using a numerical fluid mechanics software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulon, Fanny

    2010-09-01

    A validation of Code-Saturne, a computational fluids dynamics model developed by EDF, is proposed for stable conditions. The goal is to guarantee the performance of the model in order to use it for impacts study. A comparison with the Prairie Grass data field experiment and with two Gaussian plume models will be done [fr

  14. PHREEQC integrated modelling of plutonium migration from alpha ILL radwaste: organic complexes, concrete degradation and alkaline plume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cochepin, B.; Munier, I.; Giffaut, E.; Grive, M.

    2010-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. The effects of organic compounds derived from Long-Lived Intermediate-Level waste (LLILW) degradation need to be precisely described regarding the radionuclide migration in storage cells and argillites. These evaluations play a major role in the final decision for accepting these waste products in the future storage facility. The evaluation process engaged by Andra implies the use of coupled chemical transport tools able to take into account the linking of processes occurring in storage conditions as well as the different cell components (containers, packages, lining...). The relevance of this approach must fundamentally be based on a consistent characterization concerning (i) the waste packages, (ii) their degradation products (nature and kinetics), (iii) the chemical evolution of these products in the storage disposal (for cement material particularly) and in the argillites, and (iv) the correlation with the radionuclide behavior regarding to these sequestering agents (chemistry and transport). Andra is now involved in an internal evaluation of technological organic waste packages contaminated by plutonium coming from the MOX fuel plant called MELOX located at Marcoule (France), considering the consistent work undertaken to characterize these organic agents. This evaluation is based on an integrated representation in terms of chemical processes and transport of the concrete chemical degradation (e.g. waste packages, backfill and lining), the alkaline plume in the near field of argillites and the plutonium-organic complexes. The conceptual model is based on the following assessments: On the chemical aspect: (i) Both concrete and argillites undertake chemical perturbations with dissolution/precipitation, ion exchanges, surface and aqueous complexation. (ii) The degradation products of the MELOX waste organic compounds are limited to five major organic acids: iso-saccharinic (ISA), acetic, phtalic, adipic and

  15. Models of Hawaiian volcano growth and plume structure: Implications of results from the Hawaii Scientific Drilling Project

    OpenAIRE

    DePaolo, D. J.; Stolper, E. M.

    1996-01-01

    The shapes of typical Hawaiian volcanoes are simply parameterized, and a relationship is derived for the dependence of lava accumulation rates on volcano volume and volumetric growth rate. The dependence of lava accumulation rate on time is derived by estimating the eruption rate of a volcano as it traverses the Hawaiian plume, with the eruption rate determined from a specified radial dependence of magma generation in the plume and assuming that a volcano captures melt from a circular area ce...

  16. Thermomechanical Modeling of the Formation of a Multilevel, Crustal-Scale Magmatic System by the Yellowstone Plume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colón, D. P.; Bindeman, I. N.; Gerya, T. V.

    2018-05-01

    Geophysical imaging of the Yellowstone supervolcano shows a broad zone of partial melt interrupted by an amagmatic gap at depths of 15-20 km. We reproduce this structure through a series of regional-scale magmatic-thermomechanical forward models which assume that magmatic dikes stall at rheologic discontinuities in the crust. We find that basaltic magmas accumulate at the Moho and at the brittle-ductile transition, which naturally forms at depths of 5-10 km. This leads to the development of a 10- to 15-km thick midcrustal sill complex with a top at a depth of approximately 10 km, consistent with geophysical observations of the pre-Yellowstone hot spot track. We show a linear relationship between melting rates in the mantle and rhyolite eruption rates along the hot spot track. Finally, melt production rates from our models suggest that the Yellowstone plume is 175°C hotter than the surrounding mantle and that the thickness of the overlying lithosphere is 80 km.

  17. Phased Array Noise Source Localization Measurements of an F404 Nozzle Plume at Both Full and Model Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podboy, Gary G.; Bridges, James E.; Henderson, Brenda S.

    2010-01-01

    A 48-microphone planar phased array system was used to acquire jet noise source localization data on both a full-scale F404-GE-F400 engine and on a 1/4th scale model of a F400 series nozzle. The full-scale engine test data show the location of the dominant noise sources in the jet plume as a function of frequency for the engine in both baseline (no chevron) and chevron configurations. Data are presented for the engine operating both with and without afterburners. Based on lessons learned during this test, a set of recommendations are provided regarding how the phased array measurement system could be modified in order to obtain more useful acoustic source localization data on high-performance military engines in the future. The data obtained on the 1/4th scale F400 series nozzle provide useful insights regarding the full-scale engine jet noise source mechanisms, and document some of the differences associated with testing at model-scale versus fullscale.

  18. A methodology for PSA model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unwin, S.D.

    1995-09-01

    This document reports Phase 2 of work undertaken by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) in support of the Atomic Energy Control Board's Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) review. A methodology is presented for the systematic review and evaluation of a PSA model. These methods are intended to support consideration of the following question: To within the scope and depth of modeling resolution of a PSA study, is the resultant model a complete and accurate representation of the subject plant? This question was identified as a key PSA validation issue in SAIC's Phase 1 project. The validation methods are based on a model transformation process devised to enhance the transparency of the modeling assumptions. Through conversion to a 'success-oriented' framework, a closer correspondence to plant design and operational specifications is achieved. This can both enhance the scrutability of the model by plant personnel, and provide an alternative perspective on the model that may assist in the identification of deficiencies. The model transformation process is defined and applied to fault trees documented in the Darlington Probabilistic Safety Evaluation. A tentative real-time process is outlined for implementation and documentation of a PSA review based on the proposed methods. (author). 11 refs., 9 tabs., 30 refs

  19. Paleoclimate validation of a numerical climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schelling, F.J.; Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Thompson, S.L.

    1994-01-01

    An analysis planned to validate regional climate model results for a past climate state at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, against paleoclimate evidence for the period is described. This analysis, which will use the GENESIS model of global climate nested with the RegCM2 regional climate model, is part of a larger study for DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project that is evaluating the impacts of long term future climate change on performance of the potential high level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The planned analysis and anticipated results are presented

  20. Validation of the STAFF-5 computer model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fletcher, J.F.; Fields, S.R.

    1981-04-01

    STAFF-5 is a dynamic heat-transfer-fluid-flow stress model designed for computerized prediction of the temperature-stress performance of spent LWR fuel assemblies under storage/disposal conditions. Validation of the temperature calculating abilities of this model was performed by comparing temperature calculations under specified conditions to experimental data from the Engine Maintenance and Dissassembly (EMAD) Fuel Temperature Test Facility and to calculations performed by Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) using the HYDRA-1 model. The comparisons confirmed the ability of STAFF-5 to calculate representative fuel temperatures over a considerable range of conditions, as a first step in the evaluation and prediction of fuel temperature-stress performance

  1. Experimental Investigation of Large-Scale Bubbly Plumes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zboray, R.; Simiano, M.; De Cachard, F

    2004-03-01

    Carefully planned and instrumented experiments under well-defined boundary conditions have been carried out on large-scale, isothermal, bubbly plumes. The data obtained is meant to validate newly developed, high-resolution numerical tools for 3D transient, two-phase flow modelling. Several measurement techniques have been utilised to collect data from the experiments: particle image velocimetry, optical probes, electromagnetic probes, and visualisation. Bubble and liquid velocity fields, void-fraction distributions, bubble size and interfacial-area-concentration distributions have all been measured in the plume region, as well as recirculation velocities in the surrounding pool. The results obtained from the different measurement techniques have been compared. In general, the two-phase flow data obtained from the different techniques are found to be consistent, and of high enough quality for validating numerical simulation tools for 3D bubbly flows. (author)

  2. Experimental Investigation of Large-Scale Bubbly Plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zboray, R.; Simiano, M.; De Cachard, F.

    2004-01-01

    Carefully planned and instrumented experiments under well-defined boundary conditions have been carried out on large-scale, isothermal, bubbly plumes. The data obtained is meant to validate newly developed, high-resolution numerical tools for 3D transient, two-phase flow modelling. Several measurement techniques have been utilised to collect data from the experiments: particle image velocimetry, optical probes, electromagnetic probes, and visualisation. Bubble and liquid velocity fields, void-fraction distributions, bubble size and interfacial-area-concentration distributions have all been measured in the plume region, as well as recirculation velocities in the surrounding pool. The results obtained from the different measurement techniques have been compared. In general, the two-phase flow data obtained from the different techniques are found to be consistent, and of high enough quality for validating numerical simulation tools for 3D bubbly flows. (author)

  3. Vertical dispersion from surface and elevated releases: An investigation of a Non-Gaussian plume model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, M.J.; Arya, S.P.; Snyder, W.H.

    1993-01-01

    The vertical diffusion of a passive tracer released from surface and elevated sources in a neutrally stratified boundary layer has been studied by comparing field and laboratory experiments with a non-Gaussian K-theory model that assumes power-law profiles for the mean velocity and vertical eddy diffusivity. Several important differences between model predictions and experimental data were discovered: (1) the model overestimated ground-level concentrations from surface and elevated releases at distances beyond the peak concentration; (2) the model overpredicted vertical mixing near elevated sources, especially in the upward direction; (3) the model-predicted exponent α in the exponential vertical concentration profile for a surface release [bar C(z)∝ exp(-z α )] was smaller than the experimentally measured exponent. Model closure assumptions and experimental short-comings are discussed in relation to their probable effect on model predictions and experimental measurements. 42 refs., 13 figs., 3 tabs

  4. SPR Hydrostatic Column Model Verification and Validation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bettin, Giorgia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lord, David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Rudeen, David Keith [Gram, Inc. Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-10-01

    A Hydrostatic Column Model (HCM) was developed to help differentiate between normal "tight" well behavior and small-leak behavior under nitrogen for testing the pressure integrity of crude oil storage wells at the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This effort was motivated by steady, yet distinct, pressure behavior of a series of Big Hill caverns that have been placed under nitrogen for extended period of time. This report describes the HCM model, its functional requirements, the model structure and the verification and validation process. Different modes of operation are also described, which illustrate how the software can be used to model extended nitrogen monitoring and Mechanical Integrity Tests by predicting wellhead pressures along with nitrogen interface movements. Model verification has shown that the program runs correctly and it is implemented as intended. The cavern BH101 long term nitrogen test was used to validate the model which showed very good agreement with measured data. This supports the claim that the model is, in fact, capturing the relevant physical phenomena and can be used to make accurate predictions of both wellhead pressure and interface movements.

  5. Natural analogues and radionuclide transport model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lever, D.A.

    1987-08-01

    In this paper, some possible roles for natural analogues are discussed from the point of view of those involved with the development of mathematical models for radionuclide transport and with the use of these models in repository safety assessments. The characteristic features of a safety assessment are outlined in order to address the questions of where natural analogues can be used to improve our understanding of the processes involved and where they can assist in validating the models that are used. Natural analogues have the potential to provide useful information about some critical processes, especially long-term chemical processes and migration rates. There is likely to be considerable uncertainty and ambiguity associated with the interpretation of natural analogues, and thus it is their general features which should be emphasized, and models with appropriate levels of sophistication should be used. Experience gained in modelling the Koongarra uranium deposit in northern Australia is drawn upon. (author)

  6. Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

  7. Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

  8. External validation of EPIWIN biodegradation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posthumus, R; Traas, T P; Peijnenburg, W J G M; Hulzebos, E M

    2005-01-01

    The BIOWIN biodegradation models were evaluated for their suitability for regulatory purposes. BIOWIN includes the linear and non-linear BIODEG and MITI models for estimating the probability of rapid aerobic biodegradation and an expert survey model for primary and ultimate biodegradation estimation. Experimental biodegradation data for 110 newly notified substances were compared with the estimations of the different models. The models were applied separately and in combinations to determine which model(s) showed the best performance. The results of this study were compared with the results of other validation studies and other biodegradation models. The BIOWIN models predict not-readily biodegradable substances with high accuracy in contrast to ready biodegradability. In view of the high environmental concern of persistent chemicals and in view of the large number of not-readily biodegradable chemicals compared to the readily ones, a model is preferred that gives a minimum of false positives without a corresponding high percentage false negatives. A combination of the BIOWIN models (BIOWIN2 or BIOWIN6) showed the highest predictive value for not-readily biodegradability. However, the highest score for overall predictivity with lowest percentage false predictions was achieved by applying BIOWIN3 (pass level 2.75) and BIOWIN6.

  9. Puff-plume atmospheric deposition model for use at SRP in emergency-response situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrett, A.J.; Murphy, C.E. Jr.

    1981-05-01

    An atmospheric transport and diffusion model developed for real-time calculation of the location and concentration of toxic or radioactive materials during an accidental release was improved by including deposition calculations

  10. Coupling of Realistic Rate Estimates with Genomics for Assessing Contaminant Attenuation and Long-Term Plume Containment - Task 4: Modeling - Final Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robert C. Starr

    2005-01-01

    seven plumes at 24 DOE facilities were screened, and 14 plumes were selected for detailed examination. In the plumes selected for further study, spatial changes in the concentration of a conservative co-contaminant were used to compensate for the effects of mixing and temporal changes in TCE release from the contaminant source. Decline in TCE concentration along a flow path in excess of the co contaminant concentration decline was attributed to cometabolic degradation. This study indicated that TCE was degraded in 9 of the 14 plumes examined, with first order degradation half-lives ranging from about 1 to 12 years. TCE degradation in about two-thirds of the plumes examined suggests that cometabolism of TCE in aerobic groundwater is a common occurrence, in contrast to the conventional wisdom that TCE is recalcitrant in aerobic groundwater. The degradation half-life values calculated in this study are short enough that natural attenuation may be a viable remedy in many aerobic plumes. Computer modeling of groundwater flow and contaminant transport and degradation is frequently used to predict the evolution of groundwater plumes, and for evaluating natural attenuation and other remedial alternatives. An important aspect of a computer model is the mathematical approach for describing degradation kinetics. A common approach is to assume that degradation occurs as a first-order process. First order kinetics are easily incorporated into transport models and require only a single value (a degradation half-life) to describe reaction kinetics. The use of first order kinetics is justified in many cases because more elaborate kinetic equations often closely approximate first order kinetics under typical field conditions. A previous modeling study successfully simulated the INL TCE plume using first order degradation kinetics. TCE cometabolism is the result of TCE reacting with microbial enzymes that were produced for other purposes, such as oxidizing a growth substrate to obtain

  11. Modeling the regional impact of ship emissions on NOx and ozone levels over the Eastern Atlantic and Western Europe using ship plume parameterization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Pisoft

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available In general, regional and global chemistry transport models apply instantaneous mixing of emissions into the model's finest resolved scale. In case of a concentrated source, this could result in erroneous calculation of the evolution of both primary and secondary chemical species. Several studies discussed this issue in connection with emissions from ships and aircraft. In this study, we present an approach to deal with the non-linear effects during dispersion of NOx emissions from ships. It represents an adaptation of the original approach developed for aircraft NOx emissions, which uses an exhaust tracer to trace the amount of the emitted species in the plume and applies an effective reaction rate for the ozone production/destruction during the plume's dilution into the background air. In accordance with previous studies examining the impact of international shipping on the composition of the troposphere, we found that the contribution of ship induced surface NOx to the total reaches 90% over remote ocean and makes 10–30% near coastal regions. Due to ship emissions, surface ozone increases by up to 4–6 ppbv making 10% contribution to the surface ozone budget. When applying the ship plume parameterization, we show that the large scale NOx decreases and the ship NOx contribution is reduced by up to 20–25%. A similar decrease was found in the case of O3. The plume parameterization suppressed the ship induced ozone production by 15–30% over large areas of the studied region. To evaluate the presented parameterization, nitrogen monoxide measurements over the English Channel were compared with modeled values and it was found that after activating the parameterization the model accuracy increases.

  12. Description and validation of ERAD: An atmospheric dispersion model for high explosive detonations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boughton, B.A.; DeLaurentis, J.M.

    1992-10-01

    The Explosive Release Atmospheric Dispersion (ERAD) model is a three-dimensional numerical simulation of turbulent atmospheric transport and diffusion. An integral plume rise technique is used to provide a description of the physical and thermodynamic properties of the cloud of warm gases formed when the explosive detonates. Particle dispersion is treated as a stochastic process which is simulated using a discrete time Lagrangian Monte Carlo method. The stochastic process approach permits a more fundamental treatment of buoyancy effects, calm winds and spatial variations in meteorological conditions. Computational requirements of the three-dimensional simulation are substantially reduced by using a conceptualization in which each Monte Carlo particle represents a small puff that spreads according to a Gaussian law in the horizontal directions. ERAD was evaluated against dosage and deposition measurements obtained during Operation Roller Coaster. The predicted contour areas average within about 50% of the observations. The validation results confirm the model`s representation of the physical processes.

  13. Validation of a phytoremediation computer model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corapcioglu, M.Y.; Sung, K.; Rhykerd, R.L.; Munster, C.; Drew, M.

    1999-01-01

    The use of plants to stimulate remediation of contaminated soil is an effective, low-cost cleanup method which can be applied to many different sites. A phytoremediation computer model has been developed to simulate how recalcitrant hydrocarbons interact with plant roots in unsaturated soil. A study was conducted to provide data to validate and calibrate the model. During the study, lysimeters were constructed and filled with soil contaminated with 10 [mg kg -1 ] TNT, PBB and chrysene. Vegetated and unvegetated treatments were conducted in triplicate to obtain data regarding contaminant concentrations in the soil, plant roots, root distribution, microbial activity, plant water use and soil moisture. When given the parameters of time and depth, the model successfully predicted contaminant concentrations under actual field conditions. Other model parameters are currently being evaluated. 15 refs., 2 figs

  14. Fully coupled modeling of radionuclide migration in a clayey rock disturbed by alkaline plume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pellegrni, D.; Windt, L. de; Lee, J.V.D.

    2002-03-01

    The disposal of radioactive wastes in clayey formations may require the use of large amounts of concrete and cement as a barrier to minimize corrosion of steel containers and radionuclide migration and for supporting drifts and disposal vaults. In this context, reactive transport modeling of the interactions between cement or concrete and the argillaceous host rock aims at estimating the evolution in time of the containment properties of the multi-barriers system. The objectives of the paper are to demonstrate that integrating radionuclides migration in the modeling of strongly coupled geochemical processes of cement-clay stone interactions is feasible and that it represents an efficient way to assess the sensitivity and modification of the classical Kd and solubility parameters with respect to the chemical evolutions. Two types of modeling are considered in the paper: i): calculation of intrinsic solubility limits and Kd values backing up on the results of modeling of cement/clay stone interactions (radionuclides are assumed to be present over the whole domain at any time whatever the scenario), ii) full mechanistic modeling which explicitly introduces radionuclides in the calculation with ad hoc assumptions on radionuclide inventory, canister failure, migration pathway, etc. The reactive transport code HYTEC, based on the geochemical code CHESS, is used to simulate both the cement-clay stone interaction processes and the radionuclide migration in 1-D and 2-D configurations. Convective/dispersive and diffuse transport can be simulated for solutes and colloids. A wide range of processes such as aqueous chemistry, redox, dissolution/precipitation, surface complexation and ion exchange can be modeled at equilibrium or with kinetic control. In addition, HYTEC is strongly coupled, i.e. the hydrology (flow and diffusion) may change when mineral precipitation or dissolution changes the local porosity. (authors)

  15. Modeling crop residue burning experiments to evaluate smoke emissions and plume transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crop residue burning is a common land management practice that results in emissions of a variety of pollutants with negative health impacts. Modeling systems are used to estimate air quality impacts of crop residue burning to support retrospective regulatory assessments and also ...

  16. Modeling crop residue burning experiments to evaluate smoke emissions and plume transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luxi Zhou; Kirk R. Baker; Sergey L. Napelenok; George Pouliot; Robert Elleman; Susan M. O' Neill; Shawn P. Urbanski; David C. Wong

    2018-01-01

    Crop residue burning is a common land management practice that results in emissions of a variety of pollutants with negative health impacts. Modeling systems are used to estimate air quality impacts of crop residue burning to support retrospective regulatory assessments and also for forecasting purposes. Ground and airborne measurements from a recent field experiment...

  17. Satellite-based empirical models linking river plume dynamics with hypoxic area andvolume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satellite-based empirical models explaining hypoxic area and volume variation were developed for the seasonally hypoxic (O2 < 2 mg L−1) northern Gulf of Mexico adjacent to the Mississippi River. Annual variations in midsummer hypoxic area and ...

  18. Lithosphere erosion atop mantle plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrusta, R.; Arcay, D.; Tommasi, A.

    2012-12-01

    Mantle plumes are traditionally proposed to play an important role in lithosphere erosion. Seismic images beneath Hawaii and Cape Verde show a lithosphere-asthenosphere-boundary (LAB) up to 50 km shallower than the surroundings. However, numerical models show that unless the plate is stationary the thermo-mechanical erosion of the lithosphere does not exceed 30 km. We use 2D petrological-thermo-mechanical numerical models based on a finite-difference method on a staggered grid and marker in cell method to study the role of partial melting on the plume-lithosphere interaction. A homogeneous peridotite composition with a Newtonian temperature- and pressure-dependent viscosity is used to simulate both the plate and the convective mantle. A constant velocity, ranging from 5 to 12.5 cm/yr, is imposed at the top of the plate. Plumes are created by imposing a thermal anomaly of 150 to 350 K on a 50 km wide domain at the base of the model (700 km depth); the plate right above the thermal anomaly is 40 Myr old. Partial melting is modeled using batch-melting solidus and liquidus in anhydrous conditions. We model the progressive depletion of peridotite and its effect on partial melting by assuming that the melting degree only strictly increases through time. Melt is accumulated until a porosity threshold is reached and the melt in excess is then extracted. The rheology of the partially molten peridotite is determined using viscous constitutive relationship based on a contiguity model, which enables to take into account the effects of grain-scale melt distribution. Above a threshold of 1%, melt is instantaneously extracted. The density varies as a function of partial melting degree and extraction. Besides, we analyze the kinematics of the plume as it impacts a moving plate, the dynamics of time-dependent small-scale convection (SSC) instabilities developing in the low-viscosity layer formed by spreading of hot plume material at the lithosphere base, and the resulting thermal

  19. Towards policy relevant environmental modeling: contextual validity and pragmatic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Scott B.

    2000-01-01

    "What makes for a good model?" In various forms, this question is a question that, undoubtedly, many people, businesses, and institutions ponder with regards to their particular domain of modeling. One particular domain that is wrestling with this question is the multidisciplinary field of environmental modeling. Examples of environmental models range from models of contaminated ground water flow to the economic impact of natural disasters, such as earthquakes. One of the distinguishing claims of the field is the relevancy of environmental modeling to policy and environment-related decision-making in general. A pervasive view by both scientists and decision-makers is that a "good" model is one that is an accurate predictor. Thus, determining whether a model is "accurate" or "correct" is done by comparing model output to empirical observations. The expected outcome of this process, usually referred to as "validation" or "ground truthing," is a stamp on the model in question of "valid" or "not valid" that serves to indicate whether or not the model will be reliable before it is put into service in a decision-making context. In this paper, I begin by elaborating on the prevailing view of model validation and why this view must change. Drawing from concepts coming out of the studies of science and technology, I go on to propose a contextual view of validity that can overcome the problems associated with "ground truthing" models as an indicator of model goodness. The problem of how we talk about and determine model validity has much to do about how we perceive the utility of environmental models. In the remainder of the paper, I argue that we should adopt ideas of pragmatism in judging what makes for a good model and, in turn, developing good models. From such a perspective of model goodness, good environmental models should facilitate communication, convey—not bury or "eliminate"—uncertainties, and, thus, afford the active building of consensus decisions, instead

  20. Characterizing Io’s Pele, Tvashtar and Pillan plumes: Lessons learned from Hubble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessup, Kandis Lea; Spencer, John R.

    2012-03-01

    almost equivalent corresponding to ∼2-6 × 1016 cm-2 and 3-5 × 1015 cm-2, respectively, producing SO2 and S2 gas resurfacing rates ∼0.04-0.2 cm yr-1 and 0.007-0.01 cm yr-1; and SO2 and S2 gas masses ∼1-4 × 1010 g and ∼2-3 × 109 g; for a total dust to gas ratio in the plumes ∼10-1-10-2. The 2007 Tvashtar plume was detected by HST at ∼380 ± 40 km in both reflected sunlight and absorbed jovian light; in 1999, the detected Pele plume altitude was 500 km in absorbed jovian light, but in reflected sunlight the detected height was ∼2× lower. Thus, for the 1999 Pele plume, similar to the 1979 Voyager Pele plume observations, the most efficient dust reflections occurred in the region closest to the plume vent. The 0.33-0.42 μm brightness of the 1997 Pillan plume was 10-20× greater than the Pele or Tvashtar plumes, exceeding by a factor of 3 the average brightness levels observed within 200 km of 1979 Loki eruption vent. But, the 0.26 μm brightness of the 1997 Pillan plume in reflected sunlight was significantly lower than would be predicted by the dust scattering model. Presuming that the 0.26 μm brightness of the 1997 Pillan plume was attenuated by the eruption plume’s gas component, then an SO2 gas density ∼3-6 × 1018 cm-2 is inferred from the data (for S2/SO2 ratios ⩽4%), comparable to the 0.3-2 × 1018 cm-2 SO2 density detected at Loki in 1979 (Pearl, J.C. et al. [1979]. Nature 280, 755; Lellouch et al., 1992), and producing an SO2 gas mass ∼3-8 × 1011 g and an SO2 resurfacing rate ∼8-23 cm yr-1. These results confirm the connection between high (⩾1017 cm-2) SO2 gas content and plumes that scatter strongly at nearly blue wavelengths, and it validates the occurrence of high density SO2 gas eruptions on Io. Noting that the SO2 gas content inferred from a spectrum of the 2003 Pillan plume was significantly lower ∼2 × 1016 cm-2 (Jessup, K.L., Spencer, J., Yelle, R. [2007]. Icarus 192, 24-40); and that the Pillan caldera was flooded with

  1. Concepts of Model Verification and Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thacker, B.H.; Doebling, S.W.; Hemez, F.M.; Anderson, M.C.; Pepin, J.E.; Rodriguez, E.A.

    2004-01-01

    Model verification and validation (VandV) is an enabling methodology for the development of computational models that can be used to make engineering predictions with quantified confidence. Model VandV procedures are needed by government and industry to reduce the time, cost, and risk associated with full-scale testing of products, materials, and weapon systems. Quantifying the confidence and predictive accuracy of model calculations provides the decision-maker with the information necessary for making high-consequence decisions. The development of guidelines and procedures for conducting a model VandV program are currently being defined by a broad spectrum of researchers. This report reviews the concepts involved in such a program. Model VandV is a current topic of great interest to both government and industry. In response to a ban on the production of new strategic weapons and nuclear testing, the Department of Energy (DOE) initiated the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP). An objective of the SSP is to maintain a high level of confidence in the safety, reliability, and performance of the existing nuclear weapons stockpile in the absence of nuclear testing. This objective has challenged the national laboratories to develop high-confidence tools and methods that can be used to provide credible models needed for stockpile certification via numerical simulation. There has been a significant increase in activity recently to define VandV methods and procedures. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO) is working to develop fundamental concepts and terminology for VandV applied to high-level systems such as ballistic missile defense and battle management simulations. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has recently formed a Standards Committee for the development of VandV procedures for computational solid mechanics models. The Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board (DNFSB) has been a proponent of model

  2. Dispersal of suspended sediments in the turbid and highly stratified Red River plume

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Maren, D. S.; Hoekstra, P.

    2005-03-01

    The Red River, annually transporting 100 million tons of sediment, flows into a shallow shelf sea where it rapidly deposits most of its sediment on a prograding delta front. Oceanographic cruises were carried out in February-March and July-August 2000 to determine the vertical structure of the Ba Lat river plume and sediment transport patterns on the delta front. The surface waters in the coastal zone were strongly stratified with a low density and high sediment concentration during the larger part of the wet season, caused by low mixing rates of river plumes with ambient water. The river plume is advected to the south by a well-developed coastal current which originates from the river plumes that enter the Gulf of Tonkin North of the Ba Lat and are deflected southward by the Coriolis force. Sediment predominantly leaves the surface plume by settling from suspension and less by mixing of fresh and marine water. A one-dimensional model for plume deposition valid for fair weather conditions indicates that most sediment is deposited within 10 km and southward of the river mouth. Of prime importance for this depositional pattern is the phase relation between river outflow and tidal currents, in combination with the southward surface flow; alongshore advection is very low during outflow of the turbid river plume. The agreement of modeled plume sedimentation patterns with long-term bathymetric changes strongly suggests that fair weather depositional processes determine delta front development. This may be related to the fact that reworking of sediment mainly occurs several months after the peak deposition period; in the meantime sediment compaction and consolidation have increased the shear strength of deposited sediments.

  3. A validated physical model of greenhouse climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bot, G.P.A.

    1989-01-01

    In the greenhouse model the momentaneous environmental crop growth factors are calculated as output, together with the physical behaviour of the crop. The boundary conditions for this model are the outside weather conditions; other inputs are the physical characteristics of the crop, of the greenhouse and of the control system. The greenhouse model is based on the energy, water vapour and CO 2 balances of the crop-greenhouse system. While the emphasis is on the dynamic behaviour of the greenhouse for implementation in continuous optimization, the state variables temperature, water vapour pressure and carbondioxide concentration in the relevant greenhouse parts crop, air, soil and cover are calculated from the balances over these parts. To do this in a proper way, the physical exchange processes between the system parts have to be quantified first. Therefore the greenhouse model is constructed from submodels describing these processes: a. Radiation transmission model for the modification of the outside to the inside global radiation. b. Ventilation model to describe the ventilation exchange between greenhouse and outside air. c. The description of the exchange of energy and mass between the crop and the greenhouse air. d. Calculation of the thermal radiation exchange between the various greenhouse parts. e. Quantification of the convective exchange processes between the greenhouse air and respectively the cover, the heating pipes and the soil surface and between the cover and the outside air. f. Determination of the heat conduction in the soil. The various submodels are validated first and then the complete greenhouse model is verified

  4. Groundwater modeling of source terms and contaminant plumes for DOE low-level waste performance assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDowell-Boyer, L.M.; Wilson, J.E.

    1994-01-01

    Under US Department of Energy (DOE) Order 5820.2A, all sites within the DOE complex must analyze the performance of planned radioactive waste disposal facilities before disposal takes place through the radiological performance assessment process. These assessments consider both exposures to the public from radionuclides potentially released from disposal facilities and protection of groundwater resources. Compliance with requirements for groundwater protection is often the most difficult to demonstrate as these requirements are generally more restrictive than those for other pathways. Modeling of subsurface unsaturated and saturated flow and transport was conducted for two such assessments for the Savannah River site. The computer code PORFLOW was used to evaluate release and transport of radionuclides from different types of disposal unit configurations: vault disposal and trench disposal. The effectiveness of engineered barriers was evaluated in terms of compliance with groundwater protection requirements. The findings suggest that, due to the limited lifetime of engineered barriers, overdesign of facilities for long-lived radionuclides is likely to occur if compliance must be realized for thousands of years

  5. Validated predictive modelling of the environmental resistome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amos, Gregory C A; Gozzard, Emma; Carter, Charlotte E; Mead, Andrew; Bowes, Mike J; Hawkey, Peter M; Zhang, Lihong; Singer, Andrew C; Gaze, William H; Wellington, Elizabeth M H

    2015-06-01

    Multi-drug-resistant bacteria pose a significant threat to public health. The role of the environment in the overall rise in antibiotic-resistant infections and risk to humans is largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate drivers of antibiotic-resistance levels across the River Thames catchment, model key biotic, spatial and chemical variables and produce predictive models for future risk assessment. Sediment samples from 13 sites across the River Thames basin were taken at four time points across 2011 and 2012. Samples were analysed for class 1 integron prevalence and enumeration of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant bacteria. Class 1 integron prevalence was validated as a molecular marker of antibiotic resistance; levels of resistance showed significant geospatial and temporal variation. The main explanatory variables of resistance levels at each sample site were the number, proximity, size and type of surrounding wastewater-treatment plants. Model 1 revealed treatment plants accounted for 49.5% of the variance in resistance levels. Other contributing factors were extent of different surrounding land cover types (for example, Neutral Grassland), temporal patterns and prior rainfall; when modelling all variables the resulting model (Model 2) could explain 82.9% of variations in resistance levels in the whole catchment. Chemical analyses correlated with key indicators of treatment plant effluent and a model (Model 3) was generated based on water quality parameters (contaminant and macro- and micro-nutrient levels). Model 2 was beta tested on independent sites and explained over 78% of the variation in integron prevalence showing a significant predictive ability. We believe all models in this study are highly useful tools for informing and prioritising mitigation strategies to reduce the environmental resistome.

  6. Validity of information security policy models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Onome Imoniana

    Full Text Available Validity is concerned with establishing evidence for the use of a method to be used with a particular set of population. Thus, when we address the issue of application of security policy models, we are concerned with the implementation of a certain policy, taking into consideration the standards required, through attribution of scores to every item in the research instrument. En today's globalized economic scenarios, the implementation of information security policy, in an information technology environment, is a condition sine qua non for the strategic management process of any organization. Regarding this topic, various studies present evidences that, the responsibility for maintaining a policy rests primarily with the Chief Security Officer. The Chief Security Officer, in doing so, strives to enhance the updating of technologies, in order to meet all-inclusive business continuity planning policies. Therefore, for such policy to be effective, it has to be entirely embraced by the Chief Executive Officer. This study was developed with the purpose of validating specific theoretical models, whose designs were based on literature review, by sampling 10 of the Automobile Industries located in the ABC region of Metropolitan São Paulo City. This sampling was based on the representativeness of such industries, particularly with regards to each one's implementation of information technology in the region. The current study concludes, presenting evidence of the discriminating validity of four key dimensions of the security policy, being such: the Physical Security, the Logical Access Security, the Administrative Security, and the Legal & Environmental Security. On analyzing the Alpha of Crombach structure of these security items, results not only attest that the capacity of those industries to implement security policies is indisputable, but also, the items involved, homogeneously correlate to each other.

  7. Polarographic validation of chemical speciation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffield, J.R.; Jarratt, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    It is well established that the chemical speciation of an element in a given matrix, or system of matrices, is of fundamental importance in controlling the transport behaviour of the element. Therefore, to accurately understand and predict the transport of elements and compounds in the environment it is a requirement that both the identities and concentrations of trace element physico-chemical forms can be ascertained. These twin requirements present the analytical scientist with considerable challenges given the labile equilibria, the range of time scales (from nanoseconds to years) and the range of concentrations (ultra-trace to macro) that may be involved. As a result of this analytical variability, chemical equilibrium modelling has become recognised as an important predictive tool in chemical speciation analysis. However, this technique requires firm underpinning by the use of complementary experimental techniques for the validation of the predictions made. The work reported here has been undertaken with the primary aim of investigating possible methodologies that can be used for the validation of chemical speciation models. However, in approaching this aim, direct chemical speciation analyses have been made in their own right. Results will be reported and analysed for the iron(II)/iron(III)-citrate proton system (pH 2 to 10; total [Fe] = 3 mmol dm -3 ; total [citrate 3- ] 10 mmol dm -3 ) in which equilibrium constants have been determined using glass electrode potentiometry, speciation is predicted using the PHREEQE computer code, and validation of predictions is achieved by determination of iron complexation and redox state with associated concentrations. (authors)

  8. An Updated Model for the Anomalous Resistivity of LNAPL Plumes in Sandy Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauck, W. A.; Atekwana, E. A.; Werkema, D. D.

    2006-05-01

    Anomalously low resistivities have been observed at some sites contaminated by light non-aqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) since. The model that has been used to explain this phenomenon was published in 2000. This working hypothesis invokes both physical mixing and bacterial action to explain the low resistivities near the base of the vadose zone and the upper part of the aquifer. The hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria (of which there are numerous species found in soils) produce organic acids and carbonic acids. The acidic pore waters dissolve readily soluble ions from the native soil grains and grain coatings, to produce a leachate high in total dissolved solids. The free product LNAPL is initially a wetting phase, although not generally more than 50% extent, and seasonal water table fluctuations mix the hydrocarbons vertically through the upper water saturated zone and transition zone. This update introduces several new aspects of the conductive model. The first is that, in addition to the acids being produced by the oil-degrading bacteria, they also produce surfactants. Surfactants act similarly to detergents in detaching the oil phase from the solid substrate, and forming an emulsion of oil droplets within the water. This has helped to explain how continuous, high-TDS capillary paths can develop and pass vertically through what appears to be a substantial free product layer, thus providing easy passage for electrical current during electrical resistivity measurements. Further, it has also been shown that the addition of organic acids and biosurfactants to pore fluids can directly contribute to the conductivity of the pore fluids. A second development is that large-diameter column experiments were conducted for nearly two years (8 columns for 4 experiments). The columns had a vertical row of eletrodes for resistivity measurements, ports for extracting water samples with a syringe, and sample tubes for extracting soil samples. Water samples were used for chemical analysis

  9. Model-Based Method for Sensor Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vatan, Farrokh

    2012-01-01

    Fault detection, diagnosis, and prognosis are essential tasks in the operation of autonomous spacecraft, instruments, and in situ platforms. One of NASA s key mission requirements is robust state estimation. Sensing, using a wide range of sensors and sensor fusion approaches, plays a central role in robust state estimation, and there is a need to diagnose sensor failure as well as component failure. Sensor validation can be considered to be part of the larger effort of improving reliability and safety. The standard methods for solving the sensor validation problem are based on probabilistic analysis of the system, from which the method based on Bayesian networks is most popular. Therefore, these methods can only predict the most probable faulty sensors, which are subject to the initial probabilities defined for the failures. The method developed in this work is based on a model-based approach and provides the faulty sensors (if any), which can be logically inferred from the model of the system and the sensor readings (observations). The method is also more suitable for the systems when it is hard, or even impossible, to find the probability functions of the system. The method starts by a new mathematical description of the problem and develops a very efficient and systematic algorithm for its solution. The method builds on the concepts of analytical redundant relations (ARRs).

  10. Assessment model validity document FARF31

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elert, Mark; Gylling Bjoern; Lindgren, Maria

    2004-08-01

    The prime goal of model validation is to build confidence in the model concept and that the model is fit for its intended purpose. In other words: Does the model predict transport in fractured rock adequately to be used in repository performance assessments. Are the results reasonable for the type of modelling tasks the model is designed for. Commonly, in performance assessments a large number of realisations of flow and transport is made to cover the associated uncertainties. Thus, the flow and transport including radioactive chain decay are preferably calculated in the same model framework. A rather sophisticated concept is necessary to be able to model flow and radionuclide transport in the near field and far field of a deep repository, also including radioactive chain decay. In order to avoid excessively long computational times there is a need for well-based simplifications. For this reason, the far field code FARF31 is made relatively simple, and calculates transport by using averaged entities to represent the most important processes. FARF31 has been shown to be suitable for the performance assessments within the SKB studies, e.g. SR 97. Among the advantages are that it is a fast, simple and robust code, which enables handling of many realisations with wide spread in parameters in combination with chain decay of radionuclides. Being a component in the model chain PROPER, it is easy to assign statistical distributions to the input parameters. Due to the formulation of the advection-dispersion equation in FARF31 it is possible to perform the groundwater flow calculations separately.The basis for the modelling is a stream tube, i.e. a volume of rock including fractures with flowing water, with the walls of the imaginary stream tube defined by streamlines. The transport within the stream tube is described using a dual porosity continuum approach, where it is assumed that rock can be divided into two distinct domains with different types of porosity

  11. Modelling and validation of electromechanical shock absorbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonoli, Andrea; Amati, Nicola; Girardello Detoni, Joaquim; Galluzzi, Renato; Gasparin, Enrico

    2013-08-01

    Electromechanical vehicle suspension systems represent a promising substitute to conventional hydraulic solutions. However, the design of electromechanical devices that are able to supply high damping forces without exceeding geometric dimension and mass constraints is a difficult task. All these challenges meet in off-road vehicle suspension systems, where the power density of the dampers is a crucial parameter. In this context, the present paper outlines a particular shock absorber configuration where a suitable electric machine and a transmission mechanism are utilised to meet off-road vehicle requirements. A dynamic model is used to represent the device. Subsequently, experimental tests are performed on an actual prototype to verify the functionality of the damper and validate the proposed model.

  12. Atmospheric corrosion: statistical validation of models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diaz, V.; Martinez-Luaces, V.; Guineo-Cobs, G.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we discuss two different methods for validation of regression models, applied to corrosion data. One of them is based on the correlation coefficient and the other one is the statistical test of lack of fit. Both methods are used here to analyse fitting of bi logarithmic model in order to predict corrosion for very low carbon steel substrates in rural and urban-industrial atmospheres in Uruguay. Results for parameters A and n of the bi logarithmic model are reported here. For this purpose, all repeated values were used instead of using average values as usual. Modelling is carried out using experimental data corresponding to steel substrates under the same initial meteorological conditions ( in fact, they are put in the rack at the same time). Results of correlation coefficient are compared with the lack of it tested at two different signification levels (α=0.01 and α=0.05). Unexpected differences between them are explained and finally, it is possible to conclude, at least in the studied atmospheres, that the bi logarithmic model does not fit properly the experimental data. (Author) 18 refs

  13. Measurements on cooling tower plumes. Pt. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fortak, H.

    1975-11-01

    In this paper an extended field experiment is described in which cooling tower plumes were investigated by means of three-dimensional in situ measurements. The goal of this program was to obtain input data for numerical models of cooling tower plumes. Data for testing or developing assumptions for sub-grid parametrizations were of special interest. Utilizing modern systems for high-resolution aerology and small aircraft, four measuring campaigns were conducted: two campaigns (1974) at the cooling towers of the RWE power station at Neurath and also two (1975) at the single cooling tower of the RWE power station at Meppen. Because of the broad spectrum of weather situations, it can be assumed that the results are representative with regard to the interrelationship between the structure of cooling tower plumes and the large-scale meteorological situation. A large number of flights with a powered glider ASK 16 (more than 100 flight hours) crossing the plumes on orthogonal tracks was performed. All flights showed that the plume could be identified up to large downwind distances by discontinuous jumps of temperature and vapour pressure. Therefore a definite geometry of the plume could always be defined. In all cross sections a vertical circulation could be observed. At the plumes boundaries, which could be defined by the mentioned jumps of temperature and vapour pressure, a maximum of downward vertical motion was observed in most cases. Entrainment along the boundary of a cross section seems to be very small, except at the lower part of the plume. There, the mass entrainment is maximum and is responsible for plume rise as well as for enlargement of the cross section. The visible part of the plume (cloud) was only a small fraction of the whole plume. The discontinuities of temperature and vapour pressure show that the plume fills the space below the visible plume down to the ground. However, all effects decrease rapidly towards the ground. It turned out that high

  14. Understanding CO2 Plume Behavior and Basin-Scale Pressure Changes during Sequestration Projects through the use of Reservoir Fluid Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leetaru, H.E.; Frailey, S.M.; Damico, J.; Mehnert, E.; Birkholzer, J.; Zhou, Q.; Jordan, P.D.

    2009-01-01

    Large scale geologic sequestration tests are in the planning stages around the world. The liability and safety issues of the migration of CO2 away from the primary injection site and/or reservoir are of significant concerns for these sequestration tests. Reservoir models for simulating single or multi-phase fluid flow are used to understand the migration of CO2 in the subsurface. These models can also help evaluate concerns related to brine migration and basin-scale pressure increases that occur due to the injection of additional fluid volumes into the subsurface. The current paper presents different modeling examples addressing these issues, ranging from simple geometric models to more complex reservoir fluid models with single-site and basin-scale applications. Simple geometric models assuming a homogeneous geologic reservoir and piston-like displacement have been used for understanding pressure changes and fluid migration around each CO2 storage site. These geometric models are useful only as broad approximations because they do not account for the variation in porosity, permeability, asymmetry of the reservoir, and dip of the beds. In addition, these simple models are not capable of predicting the interference between different injection sites within the same reservoir. A more realistic model of CO2 plume behavior can be produced using reservoir fluid models. Reservoir simulation of natural gas storage reservoirs in the Illinois Basin Cambrian-age Mt. Simon Sandstone suggest that reservoir heterogeneity will be an important factor for evaluating storage capacity. The Mt. Simon Sandstone is a thick sandstone that underlies many significant coal fired power plants (emitting at least 1 million tonnes per year) in the midwestern United States including the states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, and Ohio. The initial commercial sequestration sites are expected to inject 1 to 2 million tonnes of CO2 per year. Depending on the geologic structure and

  15. SDG and qualitative trend based model multiple scale validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Dong; Xu, Xin; Yin, Jianjin; Zhang, Hongyu; Zhang, Beike

    2017-09-01

    Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A) is key technology of simulation and modelling. For the traditional model validation methods, the completeness is weak; it is carried out in one scale; it depends on human experience. The SDG (Signed Directed Graph) and qualitative trend based multiple scale validation is proposed. First the SDG model is built and qualitative trends are added to the model. And then complete testing scenarios are produced by positive inference. The multiple scale validation is carried out by comparing the testing scenarios with outputs of simulation model in different scales. Finally, the effectiveness is proved by carrying out validation for a reactor model.

  16. Unit testing, model validation, and biological simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarma, Gopal P; Jacobs, Travis W; Watts, Mark D; Ghayoomie, S Vahid; Larson, Stephen D; Gerkin, Richard C

    2016-01-01

    The growth of the software industry has gone hand in hand with the development of tools and cultural practices for ensuring the reliability of complex pieces of software. These tools and practices are now acknowledged to be essential to the management of modern software. As computational models and methods have become increasingly common in the biological sciences, it is important to examine how these practices can accelerate biological software development and improve research quality. In this article, we give a focused case study of our experience with the practices of unit testing and test-driven development in OpenWorm, an open-science project aimed at modeling Caenorhabditis elegans. We identify and discuss the challenges of incorporating test-driven development into a heterogeneous, data-driven project, as well as the role of model validation tests, a category of tests unique to software which expresses scientific models.

  17. Validation of the Canadian atmospheric dispersion model for the CANDU reactor complex at Wolsong, Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klukas, M.H.; Davis, P.A.

    2000-01-01

    AECL is undertaking the validation of ADDAM, an atmospheric dispersion and dose code based on the Canadian Standards Association model CSA N288.2. The key component of the validation program involves comparison of model predicted and measured vertical and lateral dispersion parameters, effective release height and air concentrations. A wind tunnel study of the dispersion of exhaust gases from the CANDU complex at Wolsong, Korea provides test data for dispersion over uniform and complex terrain. The test data are for distances close enough to the release points to evaluate the model for exclusion area boundaries (EAB) as small as 500 m. Lateral and vertical dispersion is described well for releases over uniform terrain but the model tends to over-predict these parameters for complex terrain. Both plume rise and entrainment are modelled conservatively and the way they are combined in the model produces conservative estimates of the effective release height for low and high wind speeds. Estimates for the medium wind speed case (50-m wind speed, 3.8 ms -1 ) are conservative when the correction for entrainment is made. For the highest ground-level concentrations, those of greatest interest in a safety analysis, 82% of the predictions were within a factor 2 of the observed values. The model can be used with confidence to predict air concentrations of exhaust gases at the Wolsong site for neutral conditions, even for flows over the hills to the west, and is unlikely to substantially under-predict concentrations. (author)

  18. The evolution of photochemical smog in a power plant plume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luria, Menachem; Valente, Ralph J.; Tanner, Roger L.; Gillani, Noor V.; Imhoff, Robert E.; Mueller, Stephen F.; Olszyna, Kenneth J.; Meagher, James F. Present address: Aeronomy Laboratory, NOAA, 325 Broadway, Boulder CO 80303, USA.)

    The evolution of photochemical smog in a plant plume was investigated with the aid of an instrumented helicopter. Air samples were taken in the plume of the Cumberland Power Plant, located in central Tennessee, during the afternoon of 16 July 1995 as part of the Southern Oxidants Study - Nashville Middle Tennessee Ozone Study. Twelve cross-wind air sampling traverses were made at six distance groups from 35 to 116 km from the source. During the sampling period the winds were from the west-northwest and the plume drifted towards the city of Nashville TN. Ten of the traverses were made upwind of the city, where the power plant plume was isolated, and two traverses downwind of the city when the plumes were possibly mixed. The results revealed that even six hours after the release, excess ozone production was limited to the edges of the plume. Only when the plume was sufficiently dispersed, but still upwind of Nashville, was excess ozone (up to 109 ppbv, 50-60 ppbv above background levels) produced in the center of the plume. The concentrations image of the plume and a Lagrangian particle model suggests that portions of the power plant plume mixed with the urban plume. The mixed urban power plant plume began to regenerate O 3 that peaked at 120 ppbv at a short distance (15-25 km) downwind of Nashville. Ozone productivity (the ratio of excess O 3 to NO y and NO z) in the isolated plume was significantly lower compared with that found in the city plume. The production of nitrate, a chain termination product, was significantly higher in the power plant plume compared to the mixed plume, indicating shorter chain length of the photochemical smog chain reaction mechanism.

  19. The evolution of photochemical smog in a power plant plume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luria, M.; The Hebrew University, Jerusalem; Valente, R.J.; Tanner, R.L.; Imhoff, R.E.; Mueller, S.F.; Olszyna, K.J.; Meagher, J.F.; Gillani, N.V.; University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL

    1999-01-01

    The evolution of photochemical smog in a plant plume was investigated with the aid of an instrumented helicopter. Air samples were taken in the plume of the Cumberland Power Plant, located in central Tennessee, during the afternoon of 16 July 1995 as part of the Southern Oxidants Study - Nashville Middle Tennessee Ozone Study. Twelve cross-wind air sampling traverses were made at six distance groups from 35 to 116 km from the source. During the sampling period the winds were from the west-northwest and the plume drifted towards the city of Nashville TN. Ten of the traverses were made upwind of the city, where the power plant plume was isolated, and two traverses downwind of the city when the plumes were possibly mixed. The results revealed that even six hours after the release, excess ozone production was limited to the edges of the plume. Only when the plume was sufficiently dispersed, but still upwind of Nashville, was excess ozone (up to 109 ppbv, 50-60 ppbv above background levels) produced in the center of the plume. The concentrations image of the plume and a Lagrangian particle model suggests that portions of the power plant plume mixed with the urban plume. The mixed urban power plant plume began to regenerate O 3 that peaked at 120 ppbv at a short distance (15-25 km) downwind of Nashville. Ozone productivity (the ratio of excess O 3 to NO y and NO z ) in the isolated plume was significantly lower compared with that found in the city plume. The production of nitrate, a chain termination product, was significantly higher in the power plant plume compared to the mixed plume, indicating shorter chain length of the photochemical smog chain reaction mechanism. (author)

  20. Reservoir Characterization and CO2 Plume Migration Modeling Based on Bottom-hole Pressure Data: An Example from the AEP Mountaineer Geological Storage Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Srikanta; Kelley, Mark; Oruganti, YagnaDeepika; Bhattacharya, Indra; Spitznogle, Gary

    2014-05-01

    We present an integrated approach for formation permeability estimation, front tracking, reservoir model calibration, and plume migration modeling based on injection rate and down-hole pressure data from CO2 geologic sequestration projects. The data are taken from the 20 MW CO2 capture and storage project at American Electric Power's Mountaineer Plant in West Virginia, USA. The Mountaineer CO2 injection system consists of two injection wells - one in the Copper Ridge Dolomite formation and one in the Rose Run sandstone formation, and three deep observation wells that were operational between October 2009 and May 2011. Approximately 27000 MT and 10000 MT were injected into the Copper Ridge dolomite formation and Rose Run sandstone formation, respectively. A wealth of pressure and rate data from injection and observation wells is available covering a series of injection and pressure falloff events. The methodology developed and applied for interpreting and integrating the data during reservoir analysis and modeling from the Rose Run formation is the subject of this paper. For the analysis of transient pressure data at the injection and observation wells, the CO2 storage reservoir is conceptualized as a radial composite system, where the inner (invaded) zone consists of both supercritical CO2 and brine, and the outer (uninvaded) zone consists of undisturbed brine. Using established analytical solutions for analyzing fluid injection problems in the petroleum reservoir engineering literature, we show how the late-time pressure derivative response from both injection and observation wells will be identical - reflecting the permeability-thickness product of the undisturbed brine-filled formation. We also show how the expanding CO2 plume affects the "effective" compressibility that can be estimated by history matching injection-falloff data and how this can be used to develop a relationship between the plume radius and "effective" compressibility. This provides a novel non

  1. MAAP4 model and validation status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plys, M.G.; Paik, C.Y.; Henry, R.E.; Wu, Chunder; Suh, K.Y.; Sung Jin Lee; McCartney, M.A.; Wang, Zhe

    1993-01-01

    The MAAP 4 code for integrated severe accident analysis is intended to be used for Level 1 and Level 2 probabilistic safety assessment and severe accident management evaluations for current and advanced light water reactors. MAAP 4 can be used to determine which accidents lead to fuel damage and which are successfully terminated which accidents lead to fuel damage and which are successfully terminated before or after fuel damage (a level 1 application). It can also be used to determine which sequences result in fission product release to the environment and provide the time history of such releases (a level 2 application). The MAAP 4 thermal-hydraulic and fission product models and their validation are discussed here. This code is the newest version of MAAP offered by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and it contains substantial mechanistic improvements over its predecessor, MAAP 3.0B

  2. Validation of A Global Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doell, P.; Lehner, B.; Kaspar, F.; Vassolo, S.

    due to the precipitation mea- surement errors. Even though the explicit modeling of wetlands and lakes leads to a much improved modeling of both the vertical water balance and the lateral transport of water, not enough information is included in WGHM to accurately capture the hy- drology of these water bodies. Certainly, the reliability of model results is highest at the locations at which WGHM was calibrated. The validation indicates that reliability for cells inside calibrated basins is satisfactory if the basin is relatively homogeneous. Analyses of the few available stations outside of calibrated basins indicate a reason- ably high model reliability, particularly in humid regions.

  3. Dynamics of the Sediment Plume Over the Yangtze Bank in the Yellow and East China Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Zhifa; Zhu, Jianrong; Wu, Hui; Li, Xiangyu

    2017-12-01

    A distinct sediment plume exists over the Yangtze Bank in the Yellow and East China Seas (YECS) in winter, but it disappears in summer. Based on satellite color images, there are two controversial viewpoints about the formation mechanism for the sediment plume. One viewpoint is that the sediment plume forms because of cross-shelf sediment advection of highly turbid water along the Jiangsu coast. The other viewpoint is that the formation is caused by local bottom sediment resuspension and diffused to the surface layer through vertical turbulent mixing. The dynamic mechanism of the sediment plume formation has been unclear until now. This issue was explored by using a numerical sediment model in the present paper. Observed wave, current, and sediment data from 29 December 2016 to 16 January 2017 were collected near the Jiangsu coast and used to validate the model. The results indicated that the model can reproduce the hydrodynamic and sediment processes. Numerical experiments showed that the bottom sediment could be suspended by the bottom shear stress and diffuse to the surface layer by vertical mixing in winter; however, the upward diffusion is restricted by the strong stratification in summer. The sediment plume is generated locally due to bottom sediment resuspension primarily via tide-induced bottom shear stress rather than by cross-shelf sediment advection over the Yangtze Bank.

  4. Developing a model for validation and prediction of bank customer ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Credit risk is the most important risk of banks. The main approaches of the bank to reduce credit risk are correct validation using the final status and the validation model parameters. High fuel of bank reserves and lost or outstanding facilities of banks indicate the lack of appropriate validation models in the banking network.

  5. A proposed best practice model validation framework for banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pieter J. (Riaan de Jongh

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: With the increasing use of complex quantitative models in applications throughout the financial world, model risk has become a major concern. The credit crisis of 2008–2009 provoked added concern about the use of models in finance. Measuring and managing model risk has subsequently come under scrutiny from regulators, supervisors, banks and other financial institutions. Regulatory guidance indicates that meticulous monitoring of all phases of model development and implementation is required to mitigate this risk. Considerable resources must be mobilised for this purpose. The exercise must embrace model development, assembly, implementation, validation and effective governance. Setting: Model validation practices are generally patchy, disparate and sometimes contradictory, and although the Basel Accord and some regulatory authorities have attempted to establish guiding principles, no definite set of global standards exists. Aim: Assessing the available literature for the best validation practices. Methods: This comprehensive literature study provided a background to the complexities of effective model management and focussed on model validation as a component of model risk management. Results: We propose a coherent ‘best practice’ framework for model validation. Scorecard tools are also presented to evaluate if the proposed best practice model validation framework has been adequately assembled and implemented. Conclusion: The proposed best practice model validation framework is designed to assist firms in the construction of an effective, robust and fully compliant model validation programme and comprises three principal elements: model validation governance, policy and process.

  6. Aerosol modelling and validation during ESCOMPTE 2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousin, F.; Liousse, C.; Cachier, H.; Bessagnet, B.; Guillaume, B.; Rosset, R.

    The ESCOMPTE 2001 programme (Atmospheric Research. 69(3-4) (2004) 241) has resulted in an exhaustive set of dynamical, radiative, gas and aerosol observations (surface and aircraft measurements). A previous paper (Atmospheric Research. (2004) in press) has dealt with dynamics and gas-phase chemistry. The present paper is an extension to aerosol formation, transport and evolution. To account for important loadings of primary and secondary aerosols and their transformation processes in the ESCOMPTE domain, the ORISAM aerosol module (Atmospheric Environment. 35 (2001) 4751) was implemented on-line in the air-quality Meso-NH-C model. Additional developments have been introduced in ORganic and Inorganic Spectral Aerosol Module (ORISAM) to improve the comparison between simulations and experimental surface and aircraft field data. This paper discusses this comparison for a simulation performed during one selected day, 24 June 2001, during the Intensive Observation Period IOP2b. Our work relies on BC and OCp emission inventories specifically developed for ESCOMPTE. This study confirms the need for a fine resolution aerosol inventory with spectral chemical speciation. BC levels are satisfactorily reproduced, thus validating our emission inventory and its processing through Meso-NH-C. However, comparisons for reactive species generally denote an underestimation of concentrations. Organic aerosol levels are rather well simulated though with a trend to underestimation in the afternoon. Inorganic aerosol species are underestimated for several reasons, some of them have been identified. For sulphates, primary emissions were introduced. Improvement was obtained too for modelled nitrate and ammonium levels after introducing heterogeneous chemistry. However, no modelling of terrigeneous particles is probably a major cause for nitrates and ammonium underestimations. Particle numbers and size distributions are well reproduced, but only in the submicrometer range. Our work points out

  7. Validating agent based models through virtual worlds.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lakkaraju, Kiran; Whetzel, Jonathan H.; Lee, Jina; Bier, Asmeret Brooke; Cardona-Rivera, Rogelio E.; Bernstein, Jeremy Ray Rhythm

    2014-01-01

    As the US continues its vigilance against distributed, embedded threats, understanding the political and social structure of these groups becomes paramount for predicting and dis- rupting their attacks. Agent-based models (ABMs) serve as a powerful tool to study these groups. While the popularity of social network tools (e.g., Facebook, Twitter) has provided extensive communication data, there is a lack of ne-grained behavioral data with which to inform and validate existing ABMs. Virtual worlds, in particular massively multiplayer online games (MMOG), where large numbers of people interact within a complex environ- ment for long periods of time provide an alternative source of data. These environments provide a rich social environment where players engage in a variety of activities observed between real-world groups: collaborating and/or competing with other groups, conducting battles for scarce resources, and trading in a market economy. Strategies employed by player groups surprisingly re ect those seen in present-day con icts, where players use diplomacy or espionage as their means for accomplishing their goals. In this project, we propose to address the need for ne-grained behavioral data by acquiring and analyzing game data a commercial MMOG, referred to within this report as Game X. The goals of this research were: (1) devising toolsets for analyzing virtual world data to better inform the rules that govern a social ABM and (2) exploring how virtual worlds could serve as a source of data to validate ABMs established for analogous real-world phenomena. During this research, we studied certain patterns of group behavior to compliment social modeling e orts where a signi cant lack of detailed examples of observed phenomena exists. This report outlines our work examining group behaviors that underly what we have termed the Expression-To-Action (E2A) problem: determining the changes in social contact that lead individuals/groups to engage in a particular behavior

  8. Geochemistry Model Validation Report: Material Degradation and Release Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    H. Stockman

    2001-09-28

    The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the Material Degradation and Release (MDR) model that predicts degradation and release of radionuclides from a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This AMR is prepared according to ''Technical Work Plan for: Waste Package Design Description for LA'' (Ref. 17). The intended use of the MDR model is to estimate the long-term geochemical behavior of waste packages (WPs) containing U. S . Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The model is intended to predict (1) the extent to which criticality control material, such as gadolinium (Gd), will remain in the WP after corrosion of the initial WP, (2) the extent to which fissile Pu and uranium (U) will be carried out of the degraded WP by infiltrating water, and (3) the chemical composition and amounts of minerals and other solids left in the WP. The results of the model are intended for use in criticality calculations. The scope of the model validation report is to (1) describe the MDR model, and (2) compare the modeling results with experimental studies. A test case based on a degrading Pu-ceramic WP is provided to help explain the model. This model does not directly feed the assessment of system performance. The output from this model is used by several other models, such as the configuration generator, criticality, and criticality consequence models, prior to the evaluation of system performance. This document has been prepared according to AP-3.10Q, ''Analyses and Models'' (Ref. 2), and prepared in accordance with the technical work plan (Ref. 17).

  9. Geochemistry Model Validation Report: Material Degradation and Release Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stockman, H.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the Material Degradation and Release (MDR) model that predicts degradation and release of radionuclides from a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This AMR is prepared according to ''Technical Work Plan for: Waste Package Design Description for LA'' (Ref. 17). The intended use of the MDR model is to estimate the long-term geochemical behavior of waste packages (WPs) containing U. S . Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The model is intended to predict (1) the extent to which criticality control material, such as gadolinium (Gd), will remain in the WP after corrosion of the initial WP, (2) the extent to which fissile Pu and uranium (U) will be carried out of the degraded WP by infiltrating water, and (3) the chemical composition and amounts of minerals and other solids left in the WP. The results of the model are intended for use in criticality calculations. The scope of the model validation report is to (1) describe the MDR model, and (2) compare the modeling results with experimental studies. A test case based on a degrading Pu-ceramic WP is provided to help explain the model. This model does not directly feed the assessment of system performance. The output from this model is used by several other models, such as the configuration generator, criticality, and criticality consequence models, prior to the evaluation of system performance. This document has been prepared according to AP-3.10Q, ''Analyses and Models'' (Ref. 2), and prepared in accordance with the technical work plan (Ref. 17)

  10. A numerical study of the Magellan Plume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palma, Elbio D.; Matano, Ricardo P.

    2012-05-01

    In this modeling study we investigate the dynamical mechanisms controlling the spreading of the Magellan Plume, which is a low-salinity tongue that extends along the Patagonian Shelf. Our results indicate that the overall characteristics of the plume (width, depth, spreading rate, etc.) are primarily influenced by tidal forcing, which manifests through tidal mixing and tidal residual currents. Tidal forcing produces a homogenization of the plume's waters and an offshore displacement of its salinity front. The interaction between tidal and wind-forcing reinforces the downstream and upstream buoyancy transports of the plume. The influence of the Malvinas Current on the Magellan Plume is more dominant north of 50°S, where it increases the along-shelf velocities and generates intrusions of saltier waters from the outer shelf, thus causing a reduction of the downstream buoyancy transport. Our experiments also indicate that the northern limit of the Magellan Plume is set by a high salinity discharge from the San Matias Gulf. Sensitivity experiments show that increments of the wind stress cause a decrease of the downstream buoyancy transport and an increase of the upstream buoyancy transport. Variations of the magnitude of the discharge produce substantial modifications in the downstream penetration of the plume and buoyancy transport. The Magellan discharge generates a northeastward current in the middle shelf, a recirculation gyre south of the inlet and a region of weak currents father north.

  11. Statistical validation of normal tissue complication probability models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, Cheng-Jian; van der Schaaf, Arjen; van t Veld, Aart; Langendijk, Johannes A.; Schilstra, Cornelis

    2012-01-01

    PURPOSE: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage

  12. Identifying key controls on the behavior of an acidic-U(VI) plume in the Savannah River Site using reactive transport modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bea, Sergio A; Wainwright, Haruko; Spycher, Nicolas; Faybishenko, Boris; Hubbard, Susan S; Denham, Miles E

    2013-08-01

    Acidic low-level waste radioactive waste solutions were discharged to three unlined seepage basins at the F-Area of the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS), South Carolina, USA, from 1955 through 1989. Despite many years of active remediation, the groundwater remains acidic and contaminated with significant levels of U(VI) and other radionuclides. Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) is a desired closure strategy for the site, based on the premise that regional flow of clean background groundwater will eventually neutralize the groundwater acidity, immobilizing U(VI) through adsorption. An in situ treatment system is currently in place to accelerate this in the downgradient portion of the plume and similar measures could be taken upgradient if necessary. Understanding the long-term pH and U(VI) adsorption behavior at the site is critical to assess feasibility of MNA along with the in-situ remediation treatments. This paper presents a reactive transport (RT) model and uncertainty quantification (UQ) analyses to explore key controls on the U(VI)-plume evolution and long-term mobility at this site. Two-dimensional numerical RT simulations are run including the saturated and unsaturated (vadose) zones, U(VI) and H(+) adsorption (surface complexation) onto sediments, dissolution and precipitation of Al and Fe minerals, and key hydrodynamic processes are considered. UQ techniques are applied using a new open-source tool that is part of the developing ASCEM reactive transport modeling and analysis framework to: (1) identify the complex physical and geochemical processes that control the U(VI) plume migration in the pH range where the plume is highly mobile, (2) evaluate those physical and geochemical parameters that are most controlling, and (3) predict the future plume evolution constrained by historical, chemical and hydrological data. The RT simulation results show a good agreement with the observed historical pH and concentrations of U(VI), nitrates

  13. Measurements at cooling tower plumes. Part 3. Three-dimensional measurements at cooling tower plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fortak, H.

    An extended field experiment is described in which cooling tower plumes were studied by means of three-dimensional in situ measurements. The goal was to obtain input data for numerical models of cooling tower plumes. Of special interest were data for testing or developing assumptions for sub-grid parametrizations. Utilizing modern systems for high-resolution aerology and small aircraft, four measuring campaigns were conducted: two campaigns (1974) at the cooling towers of the RWE power station Neurath and also two (1975) at the single cooling tower of the RWE power station Meppen. Because of the broad spectrum of weather situations it can be assumed that the results are representative with regard to the interrelationship between structure of cooling tower plume and large-scale meteorological situation. A large number of flights with a powered glider crossing the plumes on orthogonal tracks was performed. All flights showed that the plume could be identified up to large downwind distances by discontinuous jumps of temperature and vapor pressure. Therefore, a definite geometry of the plume could always be defined. In all cross sections a vertical circulation could be observed. At the boundary, which could be defined by the mentioned jumps of temperature and vapor pressure, a maximum of downward vertical motion could be observed in most cases. Entrainment along the boundary of a cross section seems to be very small, except at the lower part of the plume. There, the mass entrainment is maximum and is responsible for plume rise as well as for enlargement of the cross section. The visible part of the plume (cloud) was only a small fraction of the whole plume. High-resolution aerology is necessary in order to explain the structure and behavior of such plumes. This is especially the case in investigations regarding the dynamic break-through of temperature inversions. Such cases were observed frequently under various meteorological conditions and are described

  14. Radioactive Plumes Monitoring Simulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kapelushnik, I.; Sheinfeld, M.; Avida, R.; Kadmon, Y.; Ellenbogen, M.; Tirosh, D.

    1999-01-01

    The Airborne Radiation Monitoring System (ARMS) monitors air or ground radioactive contamination. The contamination source can be a radioactive plume or an area contaminated with radionuclides. The system is based on two major parts, an airborne unit carried by a helicopter and a ground station carried by a truck. The system enables real time measurement and analysis of radioactive plumes as well as post flight processing. The Radioactive Plumes Monitoring Simulator purpose is to create a virtual space where the trained operators experience full radiation field conditions, without real radiation hazard. The ARMS is based on a flying platform and hence the simulator allows a significant reduction of flight time costs

  15. Validation of the community radiative transfer model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Shouguo; Yang Ping; Weng Fuzhong; Liu Quanhua; Han Yong; Delst, Paul van; Li Jun; Baum, Bryan

    2011-01-01

    To validate the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) developed by the U.S. Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA), the discrete ordinate radiative transfer (DISORT) model and the line-by-line radiative transfer model (LBLRTM) are combined in order to provide a reference benchmark. Compared with the benchmark, the CRTM appears quite accurate for both clear sky and ice cloud radiance simulations with RMS errors below 0.2 K, except for clouds with small ice particles. In a computer CPU run time comparison, the CRTM is faster than DISORT by approximately two orders of magnitude. Using the operational MODIS cloud products and the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) atmospheric profiles as an input, the CRTM is employed to simulate the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances. The CRTM simulations are shown to be in reasonably close agreement with the AIRS measurements (the discrepancies are within 2 K in terms of brightness temperature difference). Furthermore, the impact of uncertainties in the input cloud properties and atmospheric profiles on the CRTM simulations has been assessed. The CRTM-based brightness temperatures (BTs) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), for both thin (τ 30) clouds, are highly sensitive to uncertainties in atmospheric temperature and cloud top pressure. However, for an optically thick cloud, the CRTM-based BTs are not sensitive to the uncertainties of cloud optical thickness, effective particle size, and atmospheric humidity profiles. On the contrary, the uncertainties of the CRTM-based TOA BTs resulting from effective particle size and optical thickness are not negligible in an optically thin cloud.

  16. Development of a Conservative Model Validation Approach for Reliable Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    CIE 2015 August 2-5, 2015, Boston, Massachusetts, USA [DRAFT] DETC2015-46982 DEVELOPMENT OF A CONSERVATIVE MODEL VALIDATION APPROACH FOR RELIABLE...obtain a conservative simulation model for reliable design even with limited experimental data. Very little research has taken into account the...3, the proposed conservative model validation is briefly compared to the conventional model validation approach. Section 4 describes how to account

  17. Validation of ecological state space models using the Laplace approximation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Albertsen, Christoffer Moesgaard; Berg, Casper Willestofte

    2017-01-01

    Many statistical models in ecology follow the state space paradigm. For such models, the important step of model validation rarely receives as much attention as estimation or hypothesis testing, perhaps due to lack of available algorithms and software. Model validation is often based on a naive...... for estimation in general mixed effects models. Implementing one-step predictions in the R package Template Model Builder, we demonstrate that it is possible to perform model validation with little effort, even if the ecological model is multivariate, has non-linear dynamics, and whether observations...... useful directions in which the model could be improved....

  18. Hot rocket plume experiment - Survey and conceptual design. [of rhenium-iridium bipropellants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millard, Jerry M.; Luan, Taylor W.; Dowdy, Mack W.

    1992-01-01

    Attention is given to a space-borne engine plume experiment study to fly an experiment which will both verify and quantify the reduced contamination from advanced rhenium-iridium earth-storable bipropellant rockets (hot rockets) and provide a correlation between high-fidelity, in-space measurements and theoretical plume and surface contamination models. The experiment conceptual design is based on survey results from plume and contamination technologists throughout the U.S. With respect to shuttle use, cursory investigations validate Hitchhiker availability and adaptability, adequate remote manipulator system (RMS) articulation and dynamic capability, acceptable RMS attachment capability, adequate power and telemetry capability, and adequate flight altitude and attitude/orbital capability.

  19. Validation of models in an imaging infrared simulation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Willers, C

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available threeprocessesfortransformingtheinformationbetweentheentities. Reality/ Problem Entity Conceptual Model Computerized Model Model Validation ModelVerification Model Qualification Computer Implementation Analysisand Modelling Simulationand Experimentation “Substantiationthata....C.Refsgaard ,ModellingGuidelines-terminology andguidingprinciples, AdvancesinWaterResources, Vol27,No1,January2004,?pp.71-82(12),Elsevier. et.al. [5]N.Oreskes,et.al.,Verification,Validation,andConfirmationof NumericalModelsintheEarthSciences,Science,Vol263, Number...

  20. Teaching the Mantle Plumes Debate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulger, G. R.

    2010-12-01

    There is an ongoing debate regarding whether or not mantle plumes exist. This debate has highlighted a number of issues regarding how Earth science is currently practised, and how this feeds into approaches toward teaching students. The plume model is an hypothesis, not a proven fact. And yet many researchers assume a priori that plumes exist. This assumption feeds into teaching. That the plume model is unproven, and that many practising researchers are skeptical, may be at best only mentioned in passing to students, with most teachers assuming that plumes are proven to exist. There is typically little emphasis, in particular in undergraduate teaching, that the origin of melting anomalies is currently uncertain and that scientists do not know all the answers. Little encouragement is given to students to become involved in the debate and to consider the pros and cons for themselves. Typically teachers take the approach that “an answer” (or even “the answer”) must be taught to students. Such a pedagogic approach misses an excellent opportunity to allow students to participate in an important ongoing debate in Earth sciences. It also misses the opportunity to illustrate to students several critical aspects regarding correct application of the scientific method. The scientific method involves attempting to disprove hypotheses, not to prove them. A priori assumptions should be kept uppermost in mind and reconsidered at all stages. Multiple working hypotheses should be entertained. The predictions of a hypothesis should be tested, and unpredicted observations taken as weakening the original hypothesis. Hypotheses should not be endlessly adapted to fit unexpected observations. The difficulty with pedagogic treatment of the mantle plumes debate highlights a general uncertainty about how to teach issues in Earth science that are not yet resolved with certainty. It also represents a missed opportunity to let students experience how scientific theories evolve, warts

  1. Model Validation Using Coordinate Distance with Performance Sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiann-Shiun Lew

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an innovative approach to model validation for a structure with significant parameter variations. Model uncertainty of the structural dynamics is quantified with the use of a singular value decomposition technique to extract the principal components of parameter change, and an interval model is generated to represent the system with parameter uncertainty. The coordinate vector, corresponding to the identified principal directions, of the validation system is computed. The coordinate distance between the validation system and the identified interval model is used as a metric for model validation. A beam structure with an attached subsystem, which has significant parameter uncertainty, is used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

  2. Predicted and observed cooling tower plume rise and visible plume length at the John E. Amos power plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanna, S R

    1976-01-01

    A one-dimensional numerical cloud growth model and several empirical models for plume rise and cloud growth are compared with twenty-seven sets of observations of cooling tower plumes from the 2900 MW John E. Amos power plant in West Virginia. The three natural draft cooling towers are 200 m apart. In a cross wind, the plumes begin to merge at a distance of about 500 m downwind. In calm conditions, with reduced entrainment, the plumes often do not merge until heights of 1000 m. The average plume rise, 750 m, is predicted well by the models, but day-to-day variations are simulated with a correlation coefficient of about 0.5. Model predictions of visible plume length agree, on the average, with observations for visible plumes of short to moderate length (less than about 1 km). The prediction of longer plumes is hampered by our lack of knowledge of plume spreading after the plumes level off. Cloud water concentrations predicted by the numerical model agree with those measured in natural cumulus clouds (about 0.1 to 1 g kg/sup -1/).

  3. Are splash plumes the origin of minor hotspots?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, J. H.; Bunge, H.-P.

    2006-05-01

    It has been claimed that focused hot cylindrical upwelling plumes cause many of the surface volcanic hotspots on Earth. It has also been argued that they must originate from thermal boundary layers. In this paper, we present spherical simulations of mantle circulation at close to Earth-like vigor with significant internal heating. These show, in addition to thermal boundary layer plumes, a new class of plumes that are not rooted in thermal boundary layers. These plumes develop as instabilities from the edge of bowls of hot mantle, which are produced by cold downwelling material deforming hot sheets of mantle. The resulting bowl and plume structure can look a bit like the “splash” of a water droplet. These splash plumes might provide an explanation for some hotspots that are not underlain by thermal boundary layer sourced plumes and not initiated by large igneous provinces. We suggest that in Earth's mantle, lithospheric instabilities or small pieces of subducting slab could play the role of the model downwelling material in initiating splash plumes. Splash plumes would have implications for interpreting ocean-island basalt geochemistry, plume fixity, excess plume temperature, and estimating core heat flux. Improved seismic imaging will ultimately test this hypothesis.

  4. Comparison of in situ observations of air traffic emission signatures in the North Atlantic flight corridor with simulations using a Gaussian plume model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konopka, P; Schlager, H; Schulte, P; Schumann, U; Ziereis, H [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Hagen, D; Whitefield, P [Missouri Univ., Rolla, MO (United States). Lab. for Cloud and Aerosol Science

    1998-12-31

    Focussed aircraft measurements including NO, NO{sub 2}, O{sub 3}, and aerosols (CN) have been carried out over the Eastern North Atlantic as part of the POLINAT (Pollution from Aircraft Emissions in the North Atlantic Flight Corridor) project to search for small and large scale signals of air traffic emissions in the corridor region. Here, the experimental data measured at cruising altitudes on November, 6, 1994 close to peak traffic hours are considered. Observed peak concentrations in small scale NO{sub x} spikes exceed background level of about 50 pptv by up to two orders of magnitude. The measured NO{sub x} concentration field is compared with simulations obtained with a plume dispersion model using collected air traffic data and wind measurements. Additionally, the measured and calculated NO/NO{sub x} ratios are considered. The comparison with the model shows that the observed (multiple-)peaks can be understood as a superposition of several aircraft plumes with ages up to 3 hours. (author) 12 refs.

  5. Comparison of in situ observations of air traffic emission signatures in the North Atlantic flight corridor with simulations using a Gaussian plume model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konopka, P.; Schlager, H.; Schulte, P.; Schumann, U.; Ziereis, H. [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Hagen, D.; Whitefield, P. [Missouri Univ., Rolla, MO (United States). Lab. for Cloud and Aerosol Science

    1997-12-31

    Focussed aircraft measurements including NO, NO{sub 2}, O{sub 3}, and aerosols (CN) have been carried out over the Eastern North Atlantic as part of the POLINAT (Pollution from Aircraft Emissions in the North Atlantic Flight Corridor) project to search for small and large scale signals of air traffic emissions in the corridor region. Here, the experimental data measured at cruising altitudes on November, 6, 1994 close to peak traffic hours are considered. Observed peak concentrations in small scale NO{sub x} spikes exceed background level of about 50 pptv by up to two orders of magnitude. The measured NO{sub x} concentration field is compared with simulations obtained with a plume dispersion model using collected air traffic data and wind measurements. Additionally, the measured and calculated NO/NO{sub x} ratios are considered. The comparison with the model shows that the observed (multiple-)peaks can be understood as a superposition of several aircraft plumes with ages up to 3 hours. (author) 12 refs.

  6. DSMC Simulations of Io's Pele Plume

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDoniel, William; Goldstein, D.; Varghese, P.; Trafton, L.

    2012-10-01

    Io’s Pele plume rises over 300km in altitude and leaves a deposition ring 1200km across on the surface of the moon. Material emerges from an irregularly-shaped vent, and this geometry gives rise to complex 3D flow features. The Direct Simulation Monte Carlo method is used to model the gas flow in the rarefied plume, demonstrating how the geometry of the source region is responsible for the asymmetric structure of the deposition ring and illustrating the importance of very small-scale vent geometry in explaining large observed features of interest. Simulations of small particles in the plume and comparisons to the black “butterfly wings” seen at Pele are used to constrain particle sizes and entrainment mechanisms. Preliminary results for the effects of plasma energy and momentum transfer to the plume will also be presented.

  7. System Advisor Model: Flat Plate Photovoltaic Performance Modeling Validation Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freeman, Janine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Whitmore, Jonathan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kaffine, Leah [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dobos, Aron P. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-12-01

    The System Advisor Model (SAM) is a free software tool that performs detailed analysis of both system performance and system financing for a variety of renewable energy technologies. This report provides detailed validation of the SAM flat plate photovoltaic performance model by comparing SAM-modeled PV system generation data to actual measured production data for nine PV systems ranging from 75 kW to greater than 25 MW in size. The results show strong agreement between SAM predictions and field data, with annualized prediction error below 3% for all fixed tilt cases and below 8% for all one axis tracked cases. The analysis concludes that snow cover and system outages are the primary sources of disagreement, and other deviations resulting from seasonal biases in the irradiation models and one axis tracking issues are discussed in detail.

  8. Plume dispersion from the MVP field experiment. Analysis of surface concentration and its fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yimin; Boybeyi, Zafer; Hanna, Steven; Chayantrakom, Kittisak

    Surface concentration and its fluctuations from plume dispersion under unstable conditions in a coastal environment are investigated using the model validation program field experimental data. The goal of this study is to better understand plume dispersion under such conditions. Procedures are described to derive the plume surface concentration from moving vehicle measurements. Convective boundary layer scalings are applied and cumulative density functions (CDF) are studied. The results indicate that the relative concentration fluctuation intensity ( σc/C(y)) decreases with the normalized downwind distance ( X) and that it is relatively small at the plume central line and largely increased at the plume edges, consistent with other field and laboratory results. The relation between σc/C(y) at the plume centerline ( σc/C) and X for elevated sources can be described by σc/C=a+b/X. The crosswind plume spread ( σy) is found to satisfy Deardorff and Willis's (J. Appl. Meteorol., 14 (1975) 1451) form of σy/h=a1X/(1+a2X) scaled with convective layer depth h. For elevated sources, the normalized crosswind integrated concentration ( Cy) is found to satisfy a relation of Cy=16X, with Yaglom's (Izr. Atmos. Oceanic Phys., 8 (1972) 333) scaling rule on the free convective layer being applied. Empirical CDFs based on the gamma and the clipped probability density functions show agreements with the experimental CDFs, with the former being better than the latter when (c-C)/σc>0.5. A new clipped-gamma CDF form is proposed based on the analysis of the present data, showing a better agreement. We suggest that a parameter u0*(12-0.5h/L), with combined efforts of surface friction velocity ( u0*), Monin-Obukhov stability length ( L) and unstable boundary layer height ( h), replace the convective velocity scale ( w*) under weak convective conditions in a coastal environment.

  9. Test-driven verification/validation of model transformations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    László LENGYEL; Hassan CHARAF

    2015-01-01

    Why is it important to verify/validate model transformations? The motivation is to improve the quality of the trans-formations, and therefore the quality of the generated software artifacts. Verified/validated model transformations make it possible to ensure certain properties of the generated software artifacts. In this way, verification/validation methods can guarantee different requirements stated by the actual domain against the generated/modified/optimized software products. For example, a verified/ validated model transformation can ensure the preservation of certain properties during the model-to-model transformation. This paper emphasizes the necessity of methods that make model transformation verified/validated, discusses the different scenarios of model transformation verification and validation, and introduces the principles of a novel test-driven method for verifying/ validating model transformations. We provide a solution that makes it possible to automatically generate test input models for model transformations. Furthermore, we collect and discuss the actual open issues in the field of verification/validation of model transformations.

  10. A comprehensive model for piezoceramic actuators: modelling, validation and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quant, Mario; Elizalde, Hugo; Flores, Abiud; Ramírez, Ricardo; Orta, Pedro; Song, Gangbing

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive model for piezoceramic actuators (PAs), which accounts for hysteresis, non-linear electric field and dynamic effects. The hysteresis model is based on the widely used general Maxwell slip model, while an enhanced electro-mechanical non-linear model replaces the linear constitutive equations commonly used. Further on, a linear second order model compensates the frequency response of the actuator. Each individual model is fully characterized from experimental data yielded by a specific PA, then incorporated into a comprehensive 'direct' model able to determine the output strain based on the applied input voltage, fully compensating the aforementioned effects, where the term 'direct' represents an electrical-to-mechanical operating path. The 'direct' model was implemented in a Matlab/Simulink environment and successfully validated via experimental results, exhibiting higher accuracy and simplicity than many published models. This simplicity would allow a straightforward inclusion of other behaviour such as creep, ageing, material non-linearity, etc, if such parameters are important for a particular application. Based on the same formulation, two other models are also presented: the first is an 'alternate' model intended to operate within a force-controlled scheme (instead of a displacement/position control), thus able to capture the complex mechanical interactions occurring between a PA and its host structure. The second development is an 'inverse' model, able to operate within an open-loop control scheme, that is, yielding a 'linearized' PA behaviour. The performance of the developed models is demonstrated via a numerical sample case simulated in Matlab/Simulink, consisting of a PA coupled to a simple mechanical system, aimed at shifting the natural frequency of the latter

  11. Biogeochemical and isotopic gradients in a BTEX/PAH contaminant plume: Model-based interpretation of a high-resolution field data set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prommer, H.; Anneser, B.; Rolle, Massimo

    2009-01-01

    of toluene, which is the most rapidly degrading compound and the most important reductant at the site. The resulting depth profiles at the observation well show distinct differences between the small isotopic enrichment in the contaminant plume core and the much stronger enrichment of up to 3.3 parts per......A high spatial resolution data set documenting carbon and sulfur isotope fractionation at a tar oil-contaminated, sulfate-reducing field site was analyzed with a reactive transport model. Within a comprehensive numerical model, the study links the distinctive observed isotope depth profiles...... with the degradation of various monoaromatic and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon compounds (BTEX/PAHs) under sulfate-reducing conditions. In the numerical model, microbial dynamics were simulated explicitly and isotope fractionation was directly linked to the differential microbial uptake of lighter and heavier carbon...

  12. Gaussian Plume Model Parameters for Ground-Level and Elevated Sources Derived from the Atmospheric Diffusion Equation in the Neutral and Stable Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Essa, K.S.M.

    2009-01-01

    The analytical solution of the atmospheric diffusion equation for a point source gives the ground-level concentration profiles. It depends on the wind speed ua nd vertical dispersion coefficient σ z expressed by Pasquill power laws. Both σ z and u are functions of downwind distance, stability and source elevation, while for the ground-level emission u is constant. In the neutral and stable conditions, the Gaussian plume model and finite difference numerical methods with wind speed in power law and the vertical dispersion coefficient in exponential law are estimated. This work shows that the estimated ground-level concentrations of the Gaussian model for high-level source and numerical finite difference method are very match fit to the observed ground-level concentrations of the Gaussian model

  13. Investigations of the 0.020-scale 88-OTS Integrated Space Shuttle Vehicle Jet-Plume Model in the NASA/Ames Research Center 11 by11-Foot Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel (IA80). Volume 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, M. E.

    1976-01-01

    The results are documented of jet plume effects wind tunnel test of the 0.020-scale 88-OTS launch configuration space shuttle vehicle model in the 11 x 11 foot leg of the NASA/Ames Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. This test involved cold gas main propulsion system (MPS) and solid rocket motor (SRB) plume simulations at Mach numbers from 0.6 to 1.4. Integrated vehicle surface pressure distributions, elevon and rudder hinge moments, and wing and vertical tail root bending and torsional moments due to MPS and SRB plume interactions were determined. Nozzle power conditions were controlled per pretest nozzle calibrations. Model angle of attack was varied from -4 deg to +4 deg; model angle of sideslip was varied from -4 deg to +4 deg. Reynolds number was varied for certain test conditions and configurations, with the nominal freestream total pressure being 14.69 psia. Plotted force and pressure data are presented.

  14. Some considerations for validation of repository performance assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisenberg, N.

    1991-01-01

    Validation is an important aspect of the regulatory uses of performance assessment. A substantial body of literature exists indicating the manner in which validation of models is usually pursued. Because performance models for a nuclear waste repository cannot be tested over the long time periods for which the model must make predictions, the usual avenue for model validation is precluded. Further impediments to model validation include a lack of fundamental scientific theory to describe important aspects of repository performance and an inability to easily deduce the complex, intricate structures characteristic of a natural system. A successful strategy for validation must attempt to resolve these difficulties in a direct fashion. Although some procedural aspects will be important, the main reliance of validation should be on scientific substance and logical rigor. The level of validation needed will be mandated, in part, by the uses to which these models are put, rather than by the ideal of validation of a scientific theory. Because of the importance of the validation of performance assessment models, the NRC staff has engaged in a program of research and international cooperation to seek progress in this important area. 2 figs., 16 refs

  15. Statistical Validation of Normal Tissue Complication Probability Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu Chengjian, E-mail: c.j.xu@umcg.nl [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schaaf, Arjen van der; Veld, Aart A. van' t; Langendijk, Johannes A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schilstra, Cornelis [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Radiotherapy Institute Friesland, Leeuwarden (Netherlands)

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. Methods and Materials: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Conclusion: Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use.

  16. Statistical validation of normal tissue complication probability models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Cheng-Jian; van der Schaaf, Arjen; Van't Veld, Aart A; Langendijk, Johannes A; Schilstra, Cornelis

    2012-09-01

    To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. The 2016 Case for Mantle Plumes and a Plume-Fed Asthenosphere (Augustus Love Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Jason P.

    2016-04-01

    The process of science always returns to weighing evidence and arguments for and against a given hypothesis. As hypotheses can only be falsified, never universally proved, doubt and skepticism remain essential elements of the scientific method. In the past decade, even the hypothesis that mantle plumes exist as upwelling currents in the convecting mantle has been subject to intense scrutiny; from geochemists and geochronologists concerned that idealized plume models could not fit many details of their observations, and from seismologists concerned that mantle plumes can sometimes not be 'seen' in their increasingly high-resolution tomographic images of the mantle. In the place of mantle plumes, various locally specific and largely non-predictive hypotheses have been proposed to explain the origins of non-plate boundary volcanism at Hawaii, Samoa, etc. In my opinion, this debate has now passed from what was initially an extremely useful restorative from simply 'believing' in the idealized conventional mantle plume/hotspot scenario to becoming an active impediment to our community's ability to better understand the dynamics of the solid Earth. Having no working hypothesis at all is usually worse for making progress than having an imperfect and incomplete but partially correct one. There continues to be strong arguments and strong emerging evidence for deep mantle plumes. Furthermore, deep thermal plumes should exist in a mantle that is heated at its base, and the existence of Earth's (convective) geodynamo clearly indicates that heat flows from the core to heat the mantle's base. Here I review recent seismic evidence by French, Romanowicz, and coworkers that I feel lends strong new observational support for the existence of deep mantle plumes. I also review recent evidence consistent with the idea that secular core cooling replenishes half the mantle's heat loss through its top surface, e.g. that the present-day mantle is strongly bottom heated. Causes for

  18. Modeling of 2008 Kasatochi Volcanic Sulfate Direct Radiative Forcing: Assimilation of OMI SO2 Plume Height Data and Comparison with MODIS and CALIOP Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Park, S.; Zeng, J.; Ge, C.; Yang, K.; Carn, S.; Krotkov, N.; Omar, A. H.

    2013-01-01

    Volcanic SO2 column amount and injection height retrieved from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) with the Extended Iterative Spectral Fitting (EISF) technique are used to initialize a global chemistry transport model (GEOS-Chem) to simulate the atmospheric transport and lifecycle of volcanic SO2 and sulfate aerosol from the 2008 Kasatochi eruption, and to subsequently estimate the direct shortwave, top-of-the-atmosphere radiative forcing of the volcanic sulfate aerosol. Analysis shows that the integrated use of OMI SO2 plume height in GEOS-Chem yields: (a) good agreement of the temporal evolution of 3-D volcanic sulfate distributions between model simulations and satellite observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarisation (CALIOP), and (b) an e-folding time for volcanic SO2 that is consistent with OMI measurements, reflecting SO2 oxidation in the upper troposphere and stratosphere is reliably represented in the model. However, a consistent (approx. 25 %) low bias is found in the GEOS-Chem simulated SO2 burden, and is likely due to a high (approx.20 %) bias of cloud liquid water amount (as compared to the MODIS cloud product) and the resultant stronger SO2 oxidation in the GEOS meteorological data during the first week after eruption when part of SO2 underwent aqueous-phase oxidation in clouds. Radiative transfer calculations show that the forcing by Kasatochi volcanic sulfate aerosol becomes negligible 6 months after the eruption, but its global average over the first month is -1.3W/sq m, with the majority of the forcing-influenced region located north of 20degN, and with daily peak values up to -2W/sq m on days 16-17. Sensitivity experiments show that every 2 km decrease of SO2 injection height in the GEOS-Chem simulations will result in a approx.25% decrease in volcanic sulfate forcing; similar sensitivity but opposite sign also holds for a 0.03 m increase of geometric radius of

  19. Gaussian plume model for the SO{sub 2} in a thermoelectric power plant; Modelo de pluma gaussiano para el SO{sub 2} en una central termoelectrica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reyes L, C; Munoz Ledo, C R [Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas, Cuernavaca (Mexico)

    1993-12-31

    The Gaussian Plume Model is an analytical extension to simulate the dispersion of the SO{sub 2} concentration at ground level as a function of the emission changes in the spot sources, as well as the pollutant dispersion in the Wind Rose, when the necessary parameters are fed. The model was elaborated in a personal computer and the results produced are generated in text form. [Espanol] El modelo de pluma gaussiano es una extension analitica para simular la dispersion de las concentraciones de SO{sub 2} a nivel del piso en funcion de los cambios de las emisiones en las fuentes puntuales, asi como, la dispersion del contaminante en la rosa de los vientos cuando se le alimentan los parametros necesarios. El modelo fue elaborado en una computadora personal y los resultados que proporciona los genera en modo texto.

  20. Gaussian plume model for the SO{sub 2} in a thermoelectric power plant; Modelo de pluma gaussiano para el SO{sub 2} en una central termoelectrica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reyes L, C.; Munoz Ledo, C. R. [Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas, Cuernavaca (Mexico)

    1992-12-31

    The Gaussian Plume Model is an analytical extension to simulate the dispersion of the SO{sub 2} concentration at ground level as a function of the emission changes in the spot sources, as well as the pollutant dispersion in the Wind Rose, when the necessary parameters are fed. The model was elaborated in a personal computer and the results produced are generated in text form. [Espanol] El modelo de pluma gaussiano es una extension analitica para simular la dispersion de las concentraciones de SO{sub 2} a nivel del piso en funcion de los cambios de las emisiones en las fuentes puntuales, asi como, la dispersion del contaminante en la rosa de los vientos cuando se le alimentan los parametros necesarios. El modelo fue elaborado en una computadora personal y los resultados que proporciona los genera en modo texto.

  1. Measurements at cooling tower plumes. Pt. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gassmann, F.; Haschke, D.; Solfrian, W.

    1976-04-01

    Referring to the present status of knowledge model conceptions, assumptions and approaches are summarized, which can lead to mathematical models for the simulation of dry or wet cooling tower plumes. By developing a one-dimensional plume model (FOG) the most important problems are considered in detail. It is shown that for the calibration of the necessary parameters as well as for the development of models full scale measurements are of decisive importance. After a discussion of different possibilities of measurement the organisation of a campaign of measurement is described. (orig.) [de

  2. Validation of mentorship model for newly qualified professional ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Newly qualified professional nurses (NQPNs) allocated to community health care services require the use of validated model to practice independently. Validation was done to adapt and assess if the model is understood and could be implemented by NQPNs and mentors employed in community health care services.

  3. Validation and Adaptation of Router and Switch Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boltjes, B.; Fernandez Diaz, I.; Kock, B.A.; Langeveld, R.J.G.M.; Schoenmaker, G.

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes validating OPNET models of key devices for the next generation IP-based tactical network of the Royal Netherlands Army (RNLA). The task of TNO-FEL is to provide insight in scalability and performance of future deployed networks. Because validated models ol key Cisco equipment

  4. Cost model validation: a technical and cultural approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hihn, J.; Rosenberg, L.; Roust, K.; Warfield, K.

    2001-01-01

    This paper summarizes how JPL's parametric mission cost model (PMCM) has been validated using both formal statistical methods and a variety of peer and management reviews in order to establish organizational acceptance of the cost model estimates.

  5. Advancing Land-Sea Conservation Planning: Integrating Modelling of Catchments, Land-Use Change, and River Plumes to Prioritise Catchment Management and Protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G.; Pressey, Robert L.; Ban, Natalie C.; Brodie, Jon

    2015-01-01

    Human-induced changes to river loads of nutrients and sediments pose a significant threat to marine ecosystems. Ongoing land-use change can further increase these loads, and amplify the impacts of land-based threats on vulnerable marine ecosystems. Consequently, there is a need to assess these threats and prioritise actions to mitigate their impacts. A key question regarding prioritisation is whether actions in catchments to maintain coastal-marine water quality can be spatially congruent with actions for other management objectives, such as conserving terrestrial biodiversity. In selected catchments draining into the Gulf of California, Mexico, we employed Land Change Modeller to assess the vulnerability of areas with native vegetation to conversion into crops, pasture, and urban areas. We then used SedNet, a catchment modelling tool, to map the sources and estimate pollutant loads delivered to the Gulf by these catchments. Following these analyses, we used modelled river plumes to identify marine areas likely influenced by land-based pollutants. Finally, we prioritised areas for catchment management based on objectives for conservation of terrestrial biodiversity and objectives for water quality that recognised links between pollutant sources and affected marine areas. Our objectives for coastal-marine water quality were to reduce sediment and nutrient discharges from anthropic areas, and minimise future increases in coastal sedimentation and eutrophication. Our objectives for protection of terrestrial biodiversity covered species of vertebrates. We used Marxan, a conservation planning tool, to prioritise interventions and explore spatial differences in priorities for both objectives. Notable differences in the distributions of land values for terrestrial biodiversity and coastal-marine water quality indicated the likely need for trade-offs between catchment management objectives. However, there were priority areas that contributed to both sets of objectives. Our

  6. Advancing Land-Sea Conservation Planning: Integrating Modelling of Catchments, Land-Use Change, and River Plumes to Prioritise Catchment Management and Protection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge G Álvarez-Romero

    Full Text Available Human-induced changes to river loads of nutrients and sediments pose a significant threat to marine ecosystems. Ongoing land-use change can further increase these loads, and amplify the impacts of land-based threats on vulnerable marine ecosystems. Consequently, there is a need to assess these threats and prioritise actions to mitigate their impacts. A key question regarding prioritisation is whether actions in catchments to maintain coastal-marine water quality can be spatially congruent with actions for other management objectives, such as conserving terrestrial biodiversity. In selected catchments draining into the Gulf of California, Mexico, we employed Land Change Modeller to assess the vulnerability of areas with native vegetation to conversion into crops, pasture, and urban areas. We then used SedNet, a catchment modelling tool, to map the sources and estimate pollutant loads delivered to the Gulf by these catchments. Following these analyses, we used modelled river plumes to identify marine areas likely influenced by land-based pollutants. Finally, we prioritised areas for catchment management based on objectives for conservation of terrestrial biodiversity and objectives for water quality that recognised links between pollutant sources and affected marine areas. Our objectives for coastal-marine water quality were to reduce sediment and nutrient discharges from anthropic areas, and minimise future increases in coastal sedimentation and eutrophication. Our objectives for protection of terrestrial biodiversity covered species of vertebrates. We used Marxan, a conservation planning tool, to prioritise interventions and explore spatial differences in priorities for both objectives. Notable differences in the distributions of land values for terrestrial biodiversity and coastal-marine water quality indicated the likely need for trade-offs between catchment management objectives. However, there were priority areas that contributed to both

  7. Advancing Land-Sea Conservation Planning: Integrating Modelling of Catchments, Land-Use Change, and River Plumes to Prioritise Catchment Management and Protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Pressey, Robert L; Ban, Natalie C; Brodie, Jon

    2015-01-01

    Human-induced changes to river loads of nutrients and sediments pose a significant threat to marine ecosystems. Ongoing land-use change can further increase these loads, and amplify the impacts of land-based threats on vulnerable marine ecosystems. Consequently, there is a need to assess these threats and prioritise actions to mitigate their impacts. A key question regarding prioritisation is whether actions in catchments to maintain coastal-marine water quality can be spatially congruent with actions for other management objectives, such as conserving terrestrial biodiversity. In selected catchments draining into the Gulf of California, Mexico, we employed Land Change Modeller to assess the vulnerability of areas with native vegetation to conversion into crops, pasture, and urban areas. We then used SedNet, a catchment modelling tool, to map the sources and estimate pollutant loads delivered to the Gulf by these catchments. Following these analyses, we used modelled river plumes to identify marine areas likely influenced by land-based pollutants. Finally, we prioritised areas for catchment management based on objectives for conservation of terrestrial biodiversity and objectives for water quality that recognised links between pollutant sources and affected marine areas. Our objectives for coastal-marine water quality were to reduce sediment and nutrient discharges from anthropic areas, and minimise future increases in coastal sedimentation and eutrophication. Our objectives for protection of terrestrial biodiversity covered species of vertebrates. We used Marxan, a conservation planning tool, to prioritise interventions and explore spatial differences in priorities for both objectives. Notable differences in the distributions of land values for terrestrial biodiversity and coastal-marine water quality indicated the likely need for trade-offs between catchment management objectives. However, there were priority areas that contributed to both sets of objectives. Our

  8. Validation of Embedded System Verification Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marincic, J.; Mader, Angelika H.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    The result of a model-based requirements verification shows that the model of a system satisfies (or not) formalised system requirements. The verification result is correct only if the model represents the system adequately. No matter what modelling technique we use, what precedes the model

  9. IVIM: modeling, experimental validation and application to animal models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fournet, Gabrielle

    2016-01-01

    This PhD thesis is centered on the study of the IVIM ('Intravoxel Incoherent Motion') MRI sequence. This sequence allows for the study of the blood microvasculature such as the capillaries, arterioles and venules. To be sensitive only to moving groups of spins, diffusion gradients are added before and after the 180 degrees pulse of a spin echo (SE) sequence. The signal component corresponding to spins diffusing in the tissue can be separated from the one related to spins travelling in the blood vessels which is called the IVIM signal. These two components are weighted by f IVIM which represents the volume fraction of blood inside the tissue. The IVIM signal is usually modelled by a mono-exponential (ME) function and characterized by a pseudo-diffusion coefficient, D*. We propose instead a bi-exponential IVIM model consisting of a slow pool, characterized by F slow and D* slow corresponding to the capillaries as in the ME model, and a fast pool, characterized by F fast and D* fast, related to larger vessels such as medium-size arterioles and venules. This model was validated experimentally and more information was retrieved by comparing the experimental signals to a dictionary of simulated IVIM signals. The influence of the pulse sequence, the repetition time and the diffusion encoding time was also studied. Finally, the IVIM sequence was applied to the study of an animal model of Alzheimer's disease. (author) [fr

  10. Io Pele plume

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    Voyager 1 took this narrow-angle camera image on 5 March 1979 from a distance of 450,000 kilometers. At this geometry, the camera looks straight down through a volcanic plume at one of Io's most active volcanos, Pele. The large heart-shaped feature is the region where Pele's plume falls to the surface. At the center of the 'heart' is the small dark fissure that is the source of the eruption. The Voyager Project is managed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory for NASA's Office of Space Science.

  11. Mantle plumes on Venus revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiefer, Walter S.

    1992-01-01

    The Equatorial Highlands of Venus consist of a series of quasicircular regions of high topography, rising up to about 5 km above the mean planetary radius. These highlands are strongly correlated with positive geoid anomalies, with a peak amplitude of 120 m at Atla Regio. Shield volcanism is observed at Beta, Eistla, Bell, and Atla Regiones and in the Hathor Mons-Innini Mons-Ushas Mons region of the southern hemisphere. Volcanos have also been mapped in Phoebe Regio and flood volcanism is observed in Ovda and Thetis Regiones. Extensional tectonism is also observed in Ovda and Thetis Regiones. Extensional tectonism is also observed in many of these regions. It is now widely accepted that at least Beta, Atla, Eistla, and Bell Regiones are the surface expressions of hot, rising mantel plumes. Upwelling plumes are consistent with both the volcanism and the extensional tectonism observed in these regions. The geoid anomalies and topography of these four regions show considerable variation. Peak geoid anomalies exceed 90 m at Beta and Atla, but are only 40 m at Eistla and 24 m at Bell. Similarly, the peak topography is greater at Beta and Atla than at Eistla and Bell. Such a range of values is not surprising because terrestrial hotspot swells also have a side range of geoid anomalies and topographic uplifts. Kiefer and Hager used cylindrical axisymmetric, steady-state convection calculations to show that mantle plumes can quantitatively account for both the amplitude and the shape of the long-wavelength geoid and topography at Beta and Atla. In these models, most of the topography of these highlands is due to uplift by the vertical normal stress associated with the rising plume. Additional topography may also be present due to crustal thickening by volcanism and crustal thinning by rifting. Smrekar and Phillips have also considered the geoid and topography of plumes on Venus, but they restricted themselves to considering only the geoid-topography ratio and did not

  12. Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant Northwest Plume interceptor system evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laase, A.D.; Clausen, J.L.

    1998-01-01

    The Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP) recently installed an interceptor system consisting of four wells, evenly divided between two well fields, to contain the Northwest Plume. As stated in the Northwest Plume Record of Decision (ROD), groundwater will be pumped at a rate to reduce further contamination and initiate control of the northwest contaminant plume. The objective of this evaluation was to determine the optimum (minimal) well field pumping rates required for plume hotspot containment. Plume hotspot, as defined in the Northwest Plume ROD and throughout this report, is that portion of the plume with trichloroethene (TCE) concentrations greater than 1,000 microg/L. An existing 3-dimensional groundwater model was modified and used to perform capture zone analyses of the north and south interceptor system well fields. Model results suggest that the plume hotspot is not contained at the system design pumping rate of 100 gallons per minute (gal/min) per well field. Rather, the modeling determined that north and south well field pumping rates of 400 and 150 gal/min, respectively, are necessary for plume hotspot containment. The difference between the design and optimal pumping rates required for containment can be attributed to the discovery of a highly transmissive zone in the vicinity of the two well fields

  13. Dilution in Transition Zone between Rising Plumes and Surface Plumes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Torben

    2004-01-01

    The papers presents some physical experiments with the dilution of sea outfall plumes with emphasize on the transition zone where the relative fast flowing vertical plume turns to a horizontal surface plume following the slow sea surface currents. The experiments show that a considerable dilution...

  14. The concept of validation of numerical models for consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borg, Audun; Paulsen Husted, Bjarne; Njå, Ove

    2014-01-01

    Numerical models such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models are increasingly used in life safety studies and other types of analyses to calculate the effects of fire and explosions. The validity of these models is usually established by benchmark testing. This is done to quantitatively measure the agreement between the predictions provided by the model and the real world represented by observations in experiments. This approach assumes that all variables in the real world relevant for the specific study are adequately measured in the experiments and in the predictions made by the model. In this paper the various definitions of validation for CFD models used for hazard prediction are investigated to assess their implication for consequence analysis in a design phase. In other words, how is uncertainty in the prediction of future events reflected in the validation process? The sources of uncertainty are viewed from the perspective of the safety engineer. An example of the use of a CFD model is included to illustrate the assumptions the analyst must make and how these affect the prediction made by the model. The assessments presented in this paper are based on a review of standards and best practice guides for CFD modeling and the documentation from two existing CFD programs. Our main thrust has been to assess how validation work is performed and communicated in practice. We conclude that the concept of validation adopted for numerical models is adequate in terms of model performance. However, it does not address the main sources of uncertainty from the perspective of the safety engineer. Uncertainty in the input quantities describing future events, which are determined by the model user, outweighs the inaccuracies in the model as reported in validation studies. - Highlights: • Examine the basic concept of validation applied to models for consequence analysis. • Review standards and guides for validation of numerical models. • Comparison of the validation

  15. Models for Validation of Prior Learning (VPL)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ehlers, Søren

    The national policies for the education/training of adults are in the 21st century highly influenced by proposals which are formulated and promoted by The European Union (EU) as well as other transnational players and this shift in policy making has consequences. One is that ideas which in the past...... would have been categorized as utopian can become realpolitik. Validation of Prior Learning (VPL) was in Europe mainly regarded as utopian while universities in the United States of America (USA) were developing ways to obtain credits to those students which was coming with experiences from working life....

  16. Studies of the environmental impact of evaporative cooling tower plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, D.W.

    1978-01-01

    This ongoing research program of the environmental impact of natural-draft evaporative cooling tower plumes consists principally of a comprehensive series of airborne measurements of a variety of the physical characteristics of the plumes and, to a lesser extent, of preliminary studies of remote sodar plume probing techniques and the development of simplified dynamical numerical models suitable for use in conducting field measurement programs. The PSU Doppler sodar was used at the Keystone Power Plant in southwestern Pennsylvania for an extended series of remote measurements of the characteristics of plume turbulent temperature and velocity fluctuations and results are discussed

  17. On predicting mantle mushroom plumes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ka-Kheng Tan

    2011-04-01

    Top cooling may produce plunging plumes of diameter of 585 km and at least 195 Myr old. The number of cold plumes is estimated to be 569, which has not been observed by seismic tomography or as cold spots. The cold plunging plumes may overwhelm and entrap some of the hot rising plumes from CMB, so that together they may settle in the transition zone.

  18. Turbulent buoyant jets and plumes

    CERN Document Server

    Rodi, Wolfgang

    The Science & Applications of Heat and Mass Transfer: Reports, Reviews, & Computer Programs, Volume 6: Turbulent Buoyant Jets and Plumes focuses on the formation, properties, characteristics, and reactions of turbulent jets and plumes. The selection first offers information on the mechanics of turbulent buoyant jets and plumes and turbulent buoyant jets in shallow fluid layers. Discussions focus on submerged buoyant jets into shallow fluid, horizontal surface or interface jets into shallow layers, fundamental considerations, and turbulent buoyant jets (forced plumes). The manuscript then exami

  19. Assessing Discriminative Performance at External Validation of Clinical Prediction Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daan Nieboer

    Full Text Available External validation studies are essential to study the generalizability of prediction models. Recently a permutation test, focusing on discrimination as quantified by the c-statistic, was proposed to judge whether a prediction model is transportable to a new setting. We aimed to evaluate this test and compare it to previously proposed procedures to judge any changes in c-statistic from development to external validation setting.We compared the use of the permutation test to the use of benchmark values of the c-statistic following from a previously proposed framework to judge transportability of a prediction model. In a simulation study we developed a prediction model with logistic regression on a development set and validated them in the validation set. We concentrated on two scenarios: 1 the case-mix was more heterogeneous and predictor effects were weaker in the validation set compared to the development set, and 2 the case-mix was less heterogeneous in the validation set and predictor effects were identical in the validation and development set. Furthermore we illustrated the methods in a case study using 15 datasets of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury.The permutation test indicated that the validation and development set were homogenous in scenario 1 (in almost all simulated samples and heterogeneous in scenario 2 (in 17%-39% of simulated samples. Previously proposed benchmark values of the c-statistic and the standard deviation of the linear predictors correctly pointed at the more heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 1 and the less heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 2.The recently proposed permutation test may provide misleading results when externally validating prediction models in the presence of case-mix differences between the development and validation population. To correctly interpret the c-statistic found at external validation it is crucial to disentangle case-mix differences from incorrect regression coefficients.

  20. Evaluating the quantity of native H2 in Enceladus' plumes with the Cassini-INMS closed source data: constraints from modeling of ice grains impact in the instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouquet, A.; Brockwell, T.; Waite, J. H., Jr.; Chocron, S.; Teolis, B. D.; Perryman, R.; Walker, J. D.

    2016-12-01

    The data from the closed source of the Cassini Ion and Neutral Mass Spectrometer (INMS) at Enceladus' plumes shows a signal of H2 in significant quantities (15% mole fraction for low speed flybys). H2 would be considered a "smoking gun" for the suspected hydrothermal activity in Enceladus' ocean. However the H2 quantity varies with the speed of the flyby, which is attributed to the presence of ice grains in the plumes hitting the walls of the titanium antechamber of INMS and exposing fresh titanium that may react with water to form hydrogen. The large number of small ice grains arriving during a single INMS integration period creates a back-ground signal in addition to large grains causing punctual spikes. We have developed a surface chemistry model of the INMS, taking into account adsorption and chemisorption of species of interest to determine how much H2 is produced from the expected ice grains distribution for each flyby (given by Cassini CAPS data ). CTH simulations have been used to assess the contribution of grains of different size in terms of titanium produced. We show that the spikes in the mass 2 channel can be explained by microns-sized grains, and that smaller grains (below 500 nm) are the major contributors to reactions with titanium, accounting for most of the non-spike signal. We find that the mass 2 background signal due to titanium is strongly driven by the water available, and therefore its shape versus time can't follow the sharp rises in the data (see Figure). This makes the structures seen in flyby E18 either the product of several big grains or the observation of locally high density of H2 (jets). We will analyze the effect of grains on other mass channels and comparison to CDA data to de-termine whether the peaks can be attributed to multiple ice grains or to native H2. The work will be extended to the E17 and E14 flybys to reach a definitive assessment of the native H2 abundance in the Enceladus plume.

  1. PLUME and research sotware

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baudin, Veronique; Gomez-Diaz, Teresa

    2013-04-01

    The PLUME open platform (https://www.projet-plume.org) has as first goal to share competences and to value the knowledge of software experts within the French higher education and research communities. The project proposes in its platform the access to more than 380 index cards describing useful and economic software for this community, with open access to everybody. The second goal of PLUME focuses on to improve the visibility of software produced by research laboratories within the higher education and research communities. The "development-ESR" index cards briefly describe the main features of the software, including references to research publications associated to it. The platform counts more than 300 cards describing research software, where 89 cards have an English version. In this talk we describe the theme classification and the taxonomy of the index cards and the evolution with new themes added to the project. We will also focus on the organisation of PLUME as an open project and its interests in the promotion of free/open source software from and for research, contributing to the creation of a community of shared knowledge.

  2. Showmaker-Levy 9 and plume-forming collisions on Earth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boslough, M.B.E.; Crawford, D.A.

    1995-12-31

    Computational models for the July, 1994 collision of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 with Jupiter have provided a framework for interpreting the observational data. Imaging, photometry, and spectroscopy data from ground-based, Hubble Space Telescope, and Galileo spacecraft instruments are consistent with phenomena that were dominated by the generation of incandescent fireballs that were ballistically ejected to high altitudes, where they formed plumes that subsequently collapsed over large areas of Jupiter`s atmosphere. Applications of similar computational models to collisions into Earth`s atmosphere show that a very similar sequence of events should take place for NEO impacts with energies as low as 3 megatons, recurring on 100 year timescales or less. This result suggests that the 1908 Tunguska event was a plume-forming atmospheric explosion, and that some of the phenomena associated with it might be related to the ejection and collapse of a high plume. Hazards associated with plume growth and collapse should be included in the evaluation of the impact threat to Earth, and opportunities should be sought for observational validation of atmospheric impact models by exploiting data already being collected from the natural flux of multi-kiloton to megaton sized objects that constantly enter Earth`s atmosphere on annual to decadal timescales.

  3. Experimental Validation of Flow Force Models for Fast Switching Valves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bender, Niels Christian; Pedersen, Henrik Clemmensen; Nørgård, Christian

    2017-01-01

    This paper comprises a detailed study of the forces acting on a Fast Switching Valve (FSV) plunger. The objective is to investigate to what extend different models are valid to be used for design purposes. These models depend on the geometry of the moving plunger and the properties of the surroun......This paper comprises a detailed study of the forces acting on a Fast Switching Valve (FSV) plunger. The objective is to investigate to what extend different models are valid to be used for design purposes. These models depend on the geometry of the moving plunger and the properties...... to compare and validate different models, where an effort is directed towards capturing the fluid squeeze effect just before material on material contact. The test data is compared with simulation data relying solely on analytic formulations. The general dynamics of the plunger is validated...

  4. Validation of elk resource selection models with spatially independent data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priscilla K. Coe; Bruce K. Johnson; Michael J. Wisdom; John G. Cook; Marty Vavra; Ryan M. Nielson

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge of how landscape features affect wildlife resource use is essential for informed management. Resource selection functions often are used to make and validate predictions about landscape use; however, resource selection functions are rarely validated with data from landscapes independent of those from which the models were built. This problem has severely...

  5. A Practical Approach to Validating a PD Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Medema, L.; Koning, de R.; Lensink, B.W.

    2009-01-01

    The capital adequacy framework Basel II aims to promote the adoption of stronger risk management practices by the banking industry. The implementation makes validation of credit risk models more important. Lenders therefore need a validation methodology to convince their supervisors that their

  6. A practical approach to validating a PD model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Medema, Lydian; Koning, Ruud H.; Lensink, Robert; Medema, M.

    The capital adequacy framework Basel II aims to promote the adoption of stronger risk management practices by the banking industry. The implementation makes validation of credit risk models more important. Lenders therefore need a validation methodology to convince their supervisors that their

  7. Amendment to Validated dynamic flow model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of WP2 is to establish flow models relating the wind speed at turbines in a farm. Until now, active control of power reference has not been included in these models as only data with standard operation has been available. In this report the first data series with power reference excit...... turbine in undisturbed flow. For this data set both the multiplicative model and in particular the simple first order transfer function model can predict the down wind wind speed from upwind wind speed and loading.......The purpose of WP2 is to establish flow models relating the wind speed at turbines in a farm. Until now, active control of power reference has not been included in these models as only data with standard operation has been available. In this report the first data series with power reference...

  8. Validity of thermally-driven small-scale ventilated filling box models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partridge, Jamie L.; Linden, P. F.

    2013-11-01

    The majority of previous work studying building ventilation flows at laboratory scale have used saline plumes in water. The production of buoyancy forces using salinity variations in water allows dynamic similarity between the small-scale models and the full-scale flows. However, in some situations, such as including the effects of non-adiabatic boundaries, the use of a thermal plume is desirable. The efficacy of using temperature differences to produce buoyancy-driven flows representing natural ventilation of a building in a small-scale model is examined here, with comparison between previous theoretical and new, heat-based, experiments.

  9. Stereo Photogrammetry Measurements of the Position and Attitude of a Nozzle-Plume/Shock-Wave Interaction Model in the NASA Ames 9- by 7-Ft Supersonic Wind Tunnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schairer, Edward T.; Kushner, Laura K.; Drain, Bethany A.; Heineck, James T.; Durston, Donald A.

    2017-01-01

    Stereo photogrammetry was used to measure the position and attitude of a slender body of revolution during nozzle-plume/shock-wave interaction tests in the NASA Ames 9- by 7-Ft Supersonic Wind Tunnel. The model support system was designed to allow the model to be placed at many locations in the test section relative to a pressure rail on one sidewall. It included a streamwise traverse as well as a thin blade that offset the model axis from the sting axis. With these features the support system was more flexible than usual resulting in higher-than-usual uncertainty in the position and attitude of the model. Also contributing to this uncertainty were the absence of a balance, so corrections for sting deflections could not be applied, and the wings-vertical orientation of the model, which precluded using a gravity-based accelerometer to measure pitch angle. Therefore, stereo photogrammetry was chosen to provide independent measures of the model position and orientation. This paper describes the photogrammetry system and presents selected results from the test.

  10. Dispersion of Chernobyl radioactive plume over Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albergel, A.

    1988-01-01

    A long-range pollutant transport and removal model, is used to analyse the Chernobyl radioactive plume dispersion over the Europe Continent. Model predictions are compared to field measurements of Cs-137 activity in the air from April 26th, to May 5th 1986 [fr

  11. A validated physical model of greenhouse climate.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bot, G.P.A.

    1989-01-01

    In the greenhouse model the momentaneous environmental crop growth factors are calculated as output, together with the physical behaviour of the crop. The boundary conditions for this model are the outside weather conditions; other inputs are the physical characteristics of the crop, of the

  12. Statistical Validation of Engineering and Scientific Models: Background

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hills, Richard G.; Trucano, Timothy G.

    1999-01-01

    A tutorial is presented discussing the basic issues associated with propagation of uncertainty analysis and statistical validation of engineering and scientific models. The propagation of uncertainty tutorial illustrates the use of the sensitivity method and the Monte Carlo method to evaluate the uncertainty in predictions for linear and nonlinear models. Four example applications are presented; a linear model, a model for the behavior of a damped spring-mass system, a transient thermal conduction model, and a nonlinear transient convective-diffusive model based on Burger's equation. Correlated and uncorrelated model input parameters are considered. The model validation tutorial builds on the material presented in the propagation of uncertainty tutoriaI and uses the damp spring-mass system as the example application. The validation tutorial illustrates several concepts associated with the application of statistical inference to test model predictions against experimental observations. Several validation methods are presented including error band based, multivariate, sum of squares of residuals, and optimization methods. After completion of the tutorial, a survey of statistical model validation literature is presented and recommendations for future work are made

  13. Validity of microgravity simulation models on earth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Regnard, J; Heer, M; Drummer, C

    2001-01-01

    Many studies have used water immersion and head-down bed rest as experimental models to simulate responses to microgravity. However, some data collected during space missions are at variance or in contrast with observations collected from experimental models. These discrepancies could reflect...... incomplete knowledge of the characteristics inherent to each model. During water immersion, the hydrostatic pressure lowers the peripheral vascular capacity and causes increased thoracic blood volume and high vascular perfusion. In turn, these changes lead to high urinary flow, low vasomotor tone, and a high...

  14. SO2 plume height retrieval from direct fitting of GOME-2 backscattered radiance measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gent, J.; Spurr, R.; Theys, N.; Lerot, C.; Brenot, H.; Van Roozendael, M.

    2012-04-01

    The use of satellite measurements for SO2 monitoring has become an important aspect in the support of aviation control. Satellite measurements are sometimes the only information available on SO2 concentrations from volcanic eruption events. The detection of SO2 can furthermore serve as a proxy for the presence of volcanic ash that poses a possible hazard to air traffic. In that respect, knowledge of both the total vertical column amount and the effective altitude of the volcanic SO2 plume is valuable information to air traffic control. The Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB) hosts the ESA-funded Support to Aviation Control Service (SACS). This system provides Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) worldwide with near real-time SO2 and volcanic ash data, derived from measurements from space. We present results from our algorithm for the simultaneous retrieval of total vertical columns of O3 and SO2 and effective SO2 plume height from GOME-2 backscattered radiance measurements. The algorithm is an extension to the GODFIT direct fitting algorithm, initially developed at BIRA-IASB for the derivation of improved total ozone columns from satellite data. The algorithm uses parameterized vertical SO2 profiles which allow for the derivation of the peak height of the SO2 plume, along with the trace gas total column amounts. To illustrate the applicability of the method, we present three case studies on recent volcanic eruptions: Merapi (2010), Grímsvotn (2011), and Nabro (2011). The derived SO2 plume altitude values are validated with the trajectory model FLEXPART and with aerosol altitude estimations from the CALIOP instrument on-board the NASA A-train CALIPSO platform. We find that the effective plume height can be obtained with a precision as fine as 1 km for moderate and strong volcanic events. Since this is valuable information for air traffic, we aim at incorporating the plume height information in the SACS system.

  15. Verification and Validation of Tropospheric Model/Database

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Junho, choi

    1998-01-01

    A verification and validation of tropospheric models and databases has been performed based on ray tracing algorithm, statistical analysis, test on real time system operation, and other technical evaluation process...

  16. Base Flow Model Validation, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The program focuses on turbulence modeling enhancements for predicting high-speed rocket base flows. A key component of the effort is the collection of high-fidelity...

  17. Validating predictions from climate envelope models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James I Watling

    Full Text Available Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species' distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967-1971 (t1 and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998-2002 (t2. Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on

  18. Validating predictions from climate envelope models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watling, J.; Bucklin, D.; Speroterra, C.; Brandt, L.; Cabal, C.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.

  19. New method for calculation of integral characteristics of thermal plumes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zukowska, Daria; Popiolek, Zbigniew; Melikov, Arsen Krikor

    2008-01-01

    A method for calculation of integral characteristics of thermal plumes is proposed. The method allows for determination of the integral parameters of plumes based on speed measurements performed with omnidirectional low velocity thermoanemometers. The method includes a procedure for calculation...... of the directional velocity (upward component of the mean velocity). The method is applied for determination of the characteristics of an asymmetric thermal plume generated by a sitting person. The method was validated in full-scale experiments in a climatic chamber with a thermal manikin as a simulator of a sitting...

  20. Preliminary validation of a Monte Carlo model for IMRT fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, Tracy; Lye, Jessica; Mohammadi, Mohammad

    2011-01-01

    Full text: A Monte Carlo model of an Elekta linac, validated for medium to large (10-30 cm) symmetric fields, has been investigated for small, irregular and asymmetric fields suitable for IMRT treatments. The model has been validated with field segments using radiochromic film in solid water. The modelled positions of the multileaf collimator (MLC) leaves have been validated using EBT film, In the model, electrons with a narrow energy spectrum are incident on the target and all components of the linac head are included. The MLC is modelled using the EGSnrc MLCE component module. For the validation, a number of single complex IMRT segments with dimensions approximately 1-8 cm were delivered to film in solid water (see Fig, I), The same segments were modelled using EGSnrc by adjusting the MLC leaf positions in the model validated for 10 cm symmetric fields. Dose distributions along the centre of each MLC leaf as determined by both methods were compared. A picket fence test was also performed to confirm the MLC leaf positions. 95% of the points in the modelled dose distribution along the leaf axis agree with the film measurement to within 1%/1 mm for dose difference and distance to agreement. Areas of most deviation occur in the penumbra region. A system has been developed to calculate the MLC leaf positions in the model for any planned field size.

  1. Validation of the simulator neutronics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory, M.V.

    1984-01-01

    The neutronics model in the SRP reactor training simulator computes the variation with time of the neutron population in the reactor core. The power output of a reactor is directly proportional to the neutron population, thus in a very real sense the neutronics model determines the response of the simulator. The geometrical complexity of the reactor control system in SRP reactors requires the neutronics model to provide a detailed, 3D representation of the reactor core. Existing simulator technology does not allow such a detailed representation to run in real-time in a minicomputer environment, thus an entirely different approach to the problem was required. A prompt jump method has been developed in answer to this need

  2. Context discovery using attenuated Bloom codes: model description and validation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, F.; Heijenk, Geert

    A novel approach to performing context discovery in ad-hoc networks based on the use of attenuated Bloom filters is proposed in this report. In order to investigate the performance of this approach, a model has been developed. This document describes the model and its validation. The model has been

  3. Traffic modelling validation of advanced driver assistance systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tongeren, R. van; Gietelink, O.J.; Schutter, B. de; Verhaegen, M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a microscopic traffic model for the validation of advanced driver assistance systems. This model describes single-lane traffic and is calibrated with data from a field operational test. To illustrate the use of the model, a Monte Carlo simulation of single-lane traffic scenarios

  4. Application of parameters space analysis tools for empirical model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paloma del Barrio, E. [LEPT-ENSAM UMR 8508, Talence (France); Guyon, G. [Electricite de France, Moret-sur-Loing (France)

    2004-01-01

    A new methodology for empirical model validation has been proposed in the framework of the Task 22 (Building Energy Analysis Tools) of the International Energy Agency. It involves two main steps: checking model validity and diagnosis. Both steps, as well as the underlying methods, have been presented in the first part of the paper. In this part, they are applied for testing modelling hypothesis in the framework of the thermal analysis of an actual building. Sensitivity analysis tools have been first used to identify the parts of the model that can be really tested on the available data. A preliminary diagnosis is then supplied by principal components analysis. Useful information for model behaviour improvement has been finally obtained by optimisation techniques. This example of application shows how model parameters space analysis is a powerful tool for empirical validation. In particular, diagnosis possibilities are largely increased in comparison with residuals analysis techniques. (author)

  5. Quantitative system validation in model driven design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hermanns, Hilger; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Raskin, Jean-Francois

    2010-01-01

    The European STREP project Quasimodo1 develops theory, techniques and tool components for handling quantitative constraints in model-driven development of real-time embedded systems, covering in particular real-time, hybrid and stochastic aspects. This tutorial highlights the advances made, focus...

  6. Supplementary investigations on the validation of the atmospheric radionuclide transport model (ARTM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richter, Cornelia; Thielen, Harald; Sogalla, Martin

    2015-09-01

    In the medium-term time scale the Gaussian plume model used so far for atmospheric dispersion calculations in the General Administrative Provision (AVV) relating to Section 47 of the Radiation Protection Ordinance (StrISchV) as well as in the Incident Calculation Bases (SBG) relating to Section 49 StrISchV is to be replaced by a Lagrangian particle model. Meanwhile the Atmospheric Radionuclide Transportation Model (ARTM) is available, which allows the simulation of the atmospheric dispersion of operational releases from nuclear installations. ARTM is based on the program package AUSTAL2000 which is designed for the simulation of atmospheric dispersion of non-radioactive operational releases from industrial plants and was adapted to the application of airborne radioactive releases. The research project 3612S50007 serves, on the one hand, to validate ARTM systematically. On the other hand, the development of science and technology were investigated and, if reasonable and possible, were implemented to the program system. The dispersion model and the user interface were advanced and optimized. The program package was provided to the users as a free download. Notably t he work program comprises the validation of the approach used in ARTM to model short emission periods, which are of interest in view of the SBG. The simulation results of the diagnostic wind and turbulence model TALdia, which is part of the GO-ARTM program package, were evaluated with focus on the influence of buildings on the flow field. The user interface was upgraded with a wind field viewer. To simplify the comparison with the model still in use, a Gaussian plum e model was implemented into the graphical user interface. The ARTM web page was maintained, user questions and feedback were answered and analysed concerning possible improvements and further developments of the program package. Numerous improvements were implemented. An ARTM user workshop was hosted by the Federal Office for Radiation

  7. Simulating Irregular Source Geometries for Ionian Plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDoniel, W. J.; Goldstein, D. B.; Varghese, P. L.; Trafton, L. M.; Buchta, D. A.; Freund, J.; Kieffer, S. W.

    2011-05-01

    Volcanic plumes on Io respresent a complex rarefied flow into a near-vacuum in the presence of gravity. A 3D Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is used to investigate the gas dynamics of such plumes, with a focus on the effects of source geometry on far-field deposition patterns. A rectangular slit and a semicircular half annulus are simulated to illustrate general principles, especially the effects of vent curvature on deposition ring structure. Then two possible models for the giant plume Pele are presented. One is a curved line source corresponding to an IR image of a particularly hot region in the volcano's caldera and the other is a large area source corresponding to the entire caldera. The former is seen to produce the features seen in observations of Pele's ring, but with an error in orientation. The latter corrects the error in orientation, but loses some structure. A hybrid simulation of 3D slit flow is also discussed.

  8. Simulating Irregular Source Geometries for Ionian Plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDoniel, W. J.; Goldstein, D. B.; Varghese, P. L.; Trafton, L. M.; Buchta, D. A.; Freund, J.; Kieffer, S. W.

    2011-01-01

    Volcanic plumes on Io respresent a complex rarefied flow into a near-vacuum in the presence of gravity. A 3D Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is used to investigate the gas dynamics of such plumes, with a focus on the effects of source geometry on far-field deposition patterns. A rectangular slit and a semicircular half annulus are simulated to illustrate general principles, especially the effects of vent curvature on deposition ring structure. Then two possible models for the giant plume Pele are presented. One is a curved line source corresponding to an IR image of a particularly hot region in the volcano's caldera and the other is a large area source corresponding to the entire caldera. The former is seen to produce the features seen in observations of Pele's ring, but with an error in orientation. The latter corrects the error in orientation, but loses some structure. A hybrid simulation of 3D slit flow is also discussed.

  9. Groundwater contaminant plume ranking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-08-01

    Containment plumes at Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project sites were ranked to assist in Subpart B (i.e., restoration requirements of 40 CFR Part 192) compliance strategies for each site, to prioritize aquifer restoration, and to budget future requests and allocations. The rankings roughly estimate hazards to the environment and human health, and thus assist in determining for which sites cleanup, if appropriate, will provide the greatest benefits for funds available. The rankings are based on the scores that were obtained using the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Modified Hazard Ranking System (MHRS). The MHRS and HRS consider and score three hazard modes for a site: migration, fire and explosion, and direct contact. The migration hazard mode score reflects the potential for harm to humans or the environment from migration of a hazardous substance off a site by groundwater, surface water, and air; it is a composite of separate scores for each of these routes. For ranking the containment plumes at UMTRA Project sites, it was assumed that each site had been remediated in compliance with the EPA standards and that relict contaminant plumes were present. Therefore, only the groundwater route was scored, and the surface water and air routes were not considered. Section 2.0 of this document describes the assumptions and procedures used to score the groundwater route, and Section 3.0 provides the resulting scores for each site. 40 tabs

  10. Ensuring the Validity of the Micro Foundation in DSGE Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller

    & Primiceri (American Economic Review, forth- coming) and Fernández-Villaverde & Rubio-Ramírez (Review of Economic Studies, 2007) do not satisfy these sufficient conditions, or any other known set of conditions ensuring finite values for the objective functions. Thus, the validity of the micro foundation......The presence of i) stochastic trends, ii) deterministic trends, and/or iii) stochastic volatil- ity in DSGE models may imply that the agents' objective functions attain infinite values. We say that such models do not have a valid micro foundation. The paper derives sufficient condi- tions which...... ensure that the objective functions of the households and the firms are finite even when various trends and stochastic volatility are included in a standard DSGE model. Based on these conditions we test the validity of the micro foundation in six DSGE models from the literature. The models of Justiniano...

  11. Functional Validation of Heteromeric Kainate Receptor Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paramo, Teresa; Brown, Patricia M G E; Musgaard, Maria; Bowie, Derek; Biggin, Philip C

    2017-11-21

    Kainate receptors require the presence of external ions for gating. Most work thus far has been performed on homomeric GluK2 but, in vivo, kainate receptors are likely heterotetramers. Agonists bind to the ligand-binding domain (LBD) which is arranged as a dimer of dimers as exemplified in homomeric structures, but no high-resolution structure currently exists of heteromeric kainate receptors. In a full-length heterotetramer, the LBDs could potentially be arranged either as a GluK2 homomer alongside a GluK5 homomer or as two GluK2/K5 heterodimers. We have constructed models of the LBD dimers based on the GluK2 LBD crystal structures and investigated their stability with molecular dynamics simulations. We have then used the models to make predictions about the functional behavior of the full-length GluK2/K5 receptor, which we confirmed via electrophysiological recordings. A key prediction and observation is that lithium ions bind to the dimer interface of GluK2/K5 heteromers and slow their desensitization. Copyright © 2017 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Preliminary Modelling of the Effect of Impurity in CO2 Streams on the Storage Capacity and the Plume Migration in Pohang Basin, Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Yongchan; Choi, Byoungyoung; Shinn, Youngjae

    2015-04-01

    Captured CO2 streams contain various levels of impurities which vary depending on the combustion technology and CO2 sources such as a power plant and iron and steel production processes. Common impurities or contaminants are non-condensable gases like nitrogen, oxygen and hydrogen, and are also air pollutants like sulphur and nitrogen oxides. Specifically for geological storage, the non-condensable gases in CO2 streams are not favourable because they can decrease density of the injected CO2 stream and can affect buoyancy of the plume. However, separation of these impurities to obtain the CO2 purity higher than 99% would greatly increase the cost of capture. In 2010, the Korean Government announced a national framework to develop CCS, with the aim of developing two large scale integrated CCS projects by 2020. In order to achieve this goal, a small scale injection project into Pohang basin near shoreline has begun which is seeking the connection with a capture project, especially at a steel company. Any onshore sites that are suitable for the geological storage are not identified by this time so we turned to the shallow offshore Pohang basin where is close to a large-scale CO2 source. Currently, detailed site surveys are being undertaken and the collected data were used to establish a geological model of the basin. In this study, we performed preliminary modelling study on the effect of impurities on the geological storage using the geological model. Using a potential compositions of impurities in CO2 streams from the steel company, we firstly calculated density and viscosity of CO2 streams as a function of various pressure and temperature conditions with CMG-WINPROP and then investigated the effect of the non-condensable gases on storage capacity, injectivity and plume migrations with CMG-GEM. Further simulations to evaluate the areal and vertical sweep efficiencies by impurities were perform in a 2D vertical cross section as well as in a 3D simulation grid. Also

  13. Validation of limited sampling models (LSM) for estimating AUC in therapeutic drug monitoring - is a separate validation group required?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Proost, J. H.

    Objective: Limited sampling models (LSM) for estimating AUC in therapeutic drug monitoring are usually validated in a separate group of patients, according to published guidelines. The aim of this study is to evaluate the validation of LSM by comparing independent validation with cross-validation

  14. Validation of nuclear models used in space radiation shielding applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norman, Ryan B.; Blattnig, Steve R.

    2013-01-01

    A program of verification and validation has been undertaken to assess the applicability of models to space radiation shielding applications and to track progress as these models are developed over time. In this work, simple validation metrics applicable to testing both model accuracy and consistency with experimental data are developed. The developed metrics treat experimental measurement uncertainty as an interval and are therefore applicable to cases in which epistemic uncertainty dominates the experimental data. To demonstrate the applicability of the metrics, nuclear physics models used by NASA for space radiation shielding applications are compared to an experimental database consisting of over 3600 experimental cross sections. A cumulative uncertainty metric is applied to the question of overall model accuracy, while a metric based on the median uncertainty is used to analyze the models from the perspective of model development by examining subsets of the model parameter space.

  15. Plume dispersion and deposition processes of tracer gas and aerosols in short-distance experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taeschner, M.; Bunnenberg, C.

    1988-01-01

    Data used in this paper were extracted from field experiments carried out in France and Canada to study the pathway of elementary tritium after possible emissions from future fusion reactors and from short-range experiments with nutrient aerosols performed in a German forest in view of a therapy of damaged coniferous trees by foliar nutrition. Comparisons of dispersion parameters evaluated from the tritium field experiments show that in the case of the 30-min release the variations of the wind directions represent the dominant mechanism of lateral plume dispersion under unstable weather conditions. This corresponds with the observation that for the short 2-min emission the plume remains more concentrated during propagation, and the small lateral dispersion parameters typical for stable conditions have to be applied. The investigations on the dispersion of aerosol plumes into a forest boundary layer show that the Gaussian plume model can be modified by a windspeed factor to be valid for predictions on aerosol concentrations and depositions even in a structured topography like a forest

  16. Composing, Analyzing and Validating Software Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldon, Frederick T.

    1998-10-01

    This research has been conducted at the Computational Sciences Division of the Information Sciences Directorate at Ames Research Center (Automated Software Engineering Grp). The principle work this summer has been to review and refine the agenda that were carried forward from last summer. Formal specifications provide good support for designing a functionally correct system, however they are weak at incorporating non-functional performance requirements (like reliability). Techniques which utilize stochastic Petri nets (SPNs) are good for evaluating the performance and reliability for a system, but they may be too abstract and cumbersome from the stand point of specifying and evaluating functional behavior. Therefore, one major objective of this research is to provide an integrated approach to assist the user in specifying both functionality (qualitative: mutual exclusion and synchronization) and performance requirements (quantitative: reliability and execution deadlines). In this way, the merits of a powerful modeling technique for performability analysis (using SPNs) can be combined with a well-defined formal specification language. In doing so, we can come closer to providing a formal approach to designing a functionally correct system that meets reliability and performance goals.

  17. Heat and mass transfer in the mushroom-shaped head of mantle plume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirdyashkin Anatoly

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The results of experimental and theoretical modeling of free-convection flows in the melt of the plume conduit and in the mushroom-shaped head are presented. It was shown that the plumes with the mushroom-shaped heads can be responsible for the batholith formation. The main parameters of such plumes are estimated.

  18. Model validation and calibration based on component functions of model output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Danqing; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wang, Yanping; Cheng, Lei

    2015-01-01

    The target in this work is to validate the component functions of model output between physical observation and computational model with the area metric. Based on the theory of high dimensional model representations (HDMR) of independent input variables, conditional expectations are component functions of model output, and the conditional expectations reflect partial information of model output. Therefore, the model validation of conditional expectations tells the discrepancy between the partial information of the computational model output and that of the observations. Then a calibration of the conditional expectations is carried out to reduce the value of model validation metric. After that, a recalculation of the model validation metric of model output is taken with the calibrated model parameters, and the result shows that a reduction of the discrepancy in the conditional expectations can help decrease the difference in model output. At last, several examples are employed to demonstrate the rationality and necessity of the methodology in case of both single validation site and multiple validation sites. - Highlights: • A validation metric of conditional expectations of model output is proposed. • HDRM explains the relationship of conditional expectations and model output. • An improved approach of parameter calibration updates the computational models. • Validation and calibration process are applied at single site and multiple sites. • Validation and calibration process show a superiority than existing methods

  19. Predicting the ungauged basin: Model validation and realism assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim evan Emmerik

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of model outcome has not been discussed to a great extent. With this paper we aim to contribute to the discussion on how one can determine the value and validity of a hydrological model developed for an ungauged basin. As in many cases no local, or even regional, data are available, alternative methods should be applied. Using a PUB case study in a genuinely ungauged basin in southern Cambodia, we give several examples of how one can use different types of soft data to improve model design, calibrate and validate the model, and assess the realism of the model output. A rainfall-runoff model was coupled to an irrigation reservoir, allowing the use of additional and unconventional data. The model was mainly forced with remote sensing data, and local knowledge was used to constrain the parameters. Model realism assessment was done using data from surveys. This resulted in a successful reconstruction of the reservoir dynamics, and revealed the different hydrological characteristics of the two topographical classes. This paper does not present a generic approach that can be transferred to other ungauged catchments, but it aims to show how clever model design and alternative data acquisition can result in a valuable hydrological model for an ungauged catchment.

  20. Making Validated Educational Models Central in Preschool Standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweinhart, Lawrence J.

    This paper presents some ideas to preschool educators and policy makers about how to make validated educational models central in standards for preschool education and care programs that are available to all 3- and 4-year-olds. Defining an educational model as a coherent body of program practices, curriculum content, program and child, and teacher…

  1. Validation of ASTEC core degradation and containment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruse, Philipp; Brähler, Thimo; Koch, Marco K.

    2014-01-01

    Ruhr-Universitaet Bochum performed in a German funded project validation of in-vessel and containment models of the integral code ASTEC V2, jointly developed by IRSN (France) and GRS (Germany). In this paper selected results of this validation are presented. In the in-vessel part, the main point of interest was the validation of the code capability concerning cladding oxidation and hydrogen generation. The ASTEC calculations of QUENCH experiments QUENCH-03 and QUENCH-11 show satisfactory results, despite of some necessary adjustments in the input deck. Furthermore, the oxidation models based on the Cathcart–Pawel and Urbanic–Heidrick correlations are not suitable for higher temperatures while the ASTEC model BEST-FIT based on the Prater–Courtright approach at high temperature gives reliable enough results. One part of the containment model validation was the assessment of three hydrogen combustion models of ASTEC against the experiment BMC Ix9. The simulation results of these models differ from each other and therefore the quality of the simulations depends on the characteristic of each model. Accordingly, the CPA FRONT model, corresponding to the simplest necessary input parameters, provides the best agreement to the experimental data

  2. Validation of a multi-objective, predictive urban traffic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wilmink, I.R.; Haak, P. van den; Woldeab, Z.; Vreeswijk, J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the results of the verification and validation of the ecoStrategic Model, which was developed, implemented and tested in the eCoMove project. The model uses real-time and historical traffic information to determine the current, predicted and desired state of traffic in a

  3. Predicting the ungauged basin : Model validation and realism assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Emmerik, T.H.M.; Mulder, G.; Eilander, D.; Piet, M.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2015-01-01

    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

  4. Validating a Technology Enhanced Student-Centered Learning Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Myunghee; Hahn, Jungsun; Chung, Warren

    2015-01-01

    The Technology Enhanced Student Centered Learning (TESCL) Model in this study presents the core factors that ensure the quality of learning in a technology-supported environment. Although the model was conceptually constructed using a student-centered learning framework and drawing upon previous studies, it should be validated through real-world…

  5. Validation of Power Requirement Model for Active Loudspeakers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Henrik; Madsen, Anders Normann; Bjerregaard, Ruben

    2015-01-01

    . There are however many advantages that could be harvested from such knowledge like size, cost and efficiency improvements. In this paper a recently proposed power requirement model for active loudspeakers is experimentally validated and the model is expanded to include the closed and vented type enclosures...

  6. Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert

    2015-01-01

    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

  7. Validation and comparison of dispersion models of RTARC DSS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duran, J.; Pospisil, M.

    2004-01-01

    RTARC DSS (Real Time Accident Release Consequences - Decision Support System) is a computer code developed at the VUJE Trnava, Inc. (Stubna, M. et al, 1993). The code calculations include atmospheric transport and diffusion, dose assessment, evaluation and displaying of the affected zones, evaluation of the early health effects, concentration and dose rate time dependence in the selected sites etc. The simulation of the protective measures (sheltering, iodine administration) is involved. The aim of this paper is to present the process of validation of the RTARC dispersion models. RTARC includes models for calculations of release for very short (Method Monte Carlo - MEMOC), short (Gaussian Straight-Line Model) and long distances (Puff Trajectory Model - PTM). Validation of the code RTARC was performed using the results of comparisons and experiments summarized in the Table 1.: 1. Experiments and comparisons in the process of validation of the system RTARC - experiments or comparison - distance - model. Wind tunnel experiments (Universitaet der Bundeswehr, Muenchen) - Area of NPP - Method Monte Carlo. INEL (Idaho National Engineering Laboratory) - short/medium - Gaussian model and multi tracer atmospheric experiment - distances - PTM. Model Validation Kit - short distances - Gaussian model. STEP II.b 'Realistic Case Studies' - long distances - PTM. ENSEMBLE comparison - long distances - PTM (orig.)

  8. Model Validation and Verification of Data Mining from the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael Horsfall

    In this paper, we seek to present a hybrid method for Model Validation and Verification of Data Mining from the ... This model generally states the numerical value of knowledge .... procedures found in the field of software engineering should be ...

  9. Thermal plumes in ventilated rooms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kofoed, Peter; Nielsen, Peter V.

    1990-01-01

    The design of a displacement ventilation system involves determination of the flow rate in the thermal plumes. The flow rate in the plumes and the vertical temperature gradient influence each other, and they are influenced by many factors. This paper shows some descriptions of these effects. Free...... above a point heat source cannot be used. This is caused either by the way of generating the plume including a long intermediate region or by the environmental conditions where vertical temperature gradients are present. The flow has a larger angle of spread and the entrainment factor is greather than...... turbulent plumes from different heated bodies are investigated. The measurements have taken place in a full-scale test room where the vertical temperature gradient have been changed. The velocity and the temperature distribution in the plume are measured. Large scale plume axis wandering is taken...

  10. Identifying the European fossil fuel plumes in the atmosphere over the Northeast Atlantic Region through isotopic observations and numerical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geels, C.; Christensen, J.H.; Hansen, A.W.

    2006-01-01

    Atmospheric transport, C-14. fossil fuel CO_2, numerical modeling, the north East Atlantic Region Udgivelsesdato: 18 August......Atmospheric transport, C-14. fossil fuel CO_2, numerical modeling, the north East Atlantic Region Udgivelsesdato: 18 August...

  11. Seismic Imaging of Mantle Plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nataf, Henri-Claude

    The mantle plume hypothesis was proposed thirty years ago by Jason Morgan to explain hotspot volcanoes such as Hawaii. A thermal diapir (or plume) rises from the thermal boundary layer at the base of the mantle and produces a chain of volcanoes as a plate moves on top of it. The idea is very attractive, but direct evidence for actual plumes is weak, and many questions remain unanswered. With the great improvement of seismic imagery in the past ten years, new prospects have arisen. Mantle plumes are expected to be rather narrow, and their detection by seismic techniques requires specific developments as well as dedicated field experiments. Regional travel-time tomography has provided good evidence for plumes in the upper mantle beneath a few hotspots (Yellowstone, Massif Central, Iceland). Beneath Hawaii and Iceland, the plume can be detected in the transition zone because it deflects the seismic discontinuities at 410 and 660 km depths. In the lower mantle, plumes are very difficult to detect, so specific methods have been worked out for this purpose. There are hints of a plume beneath the weak Bowie hotspot, as well as intriguing observations for Hawaii. Beneath Iceland, high-resolution tomography has just revealed a wide and meandering plume-like structure extending from the core-mantle boundary up to the surface. Among the many phenomena that seem to take place in the lowermost mantle (or D''), there are also signs there of the presence of plumes. In this article I review the main results obtained so far from these studies and discuss their implications for plume dynamics. Seismic imaging of mantle plumes is still in its infancy but should soon become a turbulent teenager.

  12. Ocean outfall plume characterization using an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogowski, Peter; Terrill, Eric; Otero, Mark; Hazard, Lisa; Middleton, William

    2013-01-01

    A monitoring mission to map and characterize the Point Loma Ocean Outfall (PLOO) wastewater plume using an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) was performed on 3 March 2011. The mobility of an AUV provides a significant advantage in surveying discharge plumes over traditional cast-based methods, and when combined with optical and oceanographic sensors, provides a capability for both detecting plumes and assessing their mixing in the near and far-fields. Unique to this study is the measurement of Colored Dissolved Organic Matter (CDOM) in the discharge plume and its application for quantitative estimates of the plume's dilution. AUV mission planning methodologies for discharge plume sampling, plume characterization using onboard optical sensors, and comparison of observational data to model results are presented. The results suggest that even under variable oceanic conditions, properly planned missions for AUVs equipped with an optical CDOM sensor in addition to traditional oceanographic sensors, can accurately characterize and track ocean outfall plumes at higher resolutions than cast-based techniques.

  13. A study of space shuttle plumes in the lower thermosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, R. R.; Stevens, Michael H.; Plane, John M. C.; Emmert, J. T.; Crowley, G.; Azeem, I.; Paxton, L. J.; Christensen, A. B.

    2011-12-01

    During the space shuttle main engine burn, some 350 t of water vapor are deposited at between 100 and 115 km. Subsequent photodissociation of water produces large plumes of atomic hydrogen that can expand rapidly and extend for thousands of kilometers. From 2002 to 2007, the Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) on NASA's Thermosphere Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite imaged many of these hydrogen plumes at Lyman α (121.567 nm) while viewing in the nadir. The images reveal rapid plume expansion and occasional very fast transport to both north and south polar regions. Some plumes persist for up to 6 d. Near-simultaneous direct detections of water vapor were made with the Sounding of the Atmosphere with Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument, also on TIMED. We compare the spreading of the hydrogen plume with a two-dimensional model that includes photodissociation as well as both vertical and horizontal diffusion. Molecular diffusion appears to be sufficient to account for the horizontal expansion, although wind shears and turbulent mixing may also contribute. We compare the bulk motion of the observed plumes with wind climatologies derived from satellite observations. The plumes can move much faster than predictions of wind climatologies. But dynamical processes not contained in wind climatologies, such as the quasi-two-day wave, can account for at least some of the high speed observations. The plume phenomena raise a number of important questions about lower thermospheric and mesospheric processes, ranging from dynamics and chemistry to polar mesospheric cloud formation and climatology.

  14. Validation of heat transfer models for gap cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okano, Yukimitsu; Nagae, Takashi; Murase, Michio

    2004-01-01

    For severe accident assessment of a light water reactor, models of heat transfer in a narrow annular gap between overheated core debris and a reactor pressure vessel are important for evaluating vessel integrity and accident management. The authors developed and improved the models of heat transfer. However, validation was not sufficient for applicability of the gap heat flux correlation to the debris cooling in the vessel lower head and applicability of the local boiling heat flux correlations to the high-pressure conditions. Therefore, in this paper, we evaluated the validity of the heat transfer models and correlations by analyses for ALPHA and LAVA experiments where molten aluminum oxide (Al 2 O 3 ) at about 2700 K was poured into the high pressure water pool in a small-scale simulated vessel lower head. In the heating process of the vessel wall, the calculated heating rate and peak temperature agreed well with the measured values, and the validity of the heat transfer models and gap heat flux correlation was confirmed. In the cooling process of the vessel wall, the calculated cooling rate was compared with the measured value, and the validity of the nucleate boiling heat flux correlation was confirmed. The peak temperatures of the vessel wall in ALPHA and LAVA experiments were lower than the temperature at the minimum heat flux point between film boiling and transition boiling, so the minimum heat flux correlation could not be validated. (author)

  15. A new tectono-magmatic model for the Lofoten/Vesterålen Margin at the outer limit of the Iceland Plume influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breivik, Asbjørn Johan; Faleide, Jan Inge; Mjelde, Rolf; Flueh, Ernst R.; Murai, Yoshio

    2017-10-01

    The Early Eocene continental breakup was magma-rich and formed part of the North Atlantic Igneous Province. Extrusive and intrusive magmatism was abundant on the continental side, and a thick oceanic crust was produced up to a few m.y. after breakup. However, the extensive magmatism at the Vøring Plateau off mid-Norway died down rapidly northeastwards towards the Lofoten/Vesterålen Margin. In 2003 an Ocean Bottom Seismometer profile was collected from mainland Norway, across Lofoten, and into the deep ocean. Forward/inverse velocity modeling by raytracing reveals a continental margin transitional between magma-rich and magma-poor rifting. For the first time a distinct lower-crustal body typical for volcanic margins has been identified at this outer margin segment, up to 3.5 km thick and ∼50 km wide. On the other hand, expected extrusive magmatism could not be clearly identified here. Strong reflections earlier interpreted as the top of extensive lavas may at least partly represent high-velocity sediments derived from the shelf, and/or fault surfaces. Early post-breakup oceanic crust is moderately thickened (∼8 km), but is reduced to 6 km after 1 m.y. The adjacent continental crystalline crust is extended down to a minimum of 4.5 km thickness. Early plate spreading rates derived from the Norway Basin and the northern Vøring Plateau were used to calculate synthetic magnetic seafloor anomalies, and compared to our ship magnetic profile. It appears that continental breakup took place at ∼53.1 Ma, ∼1 m.y. later than on the Vøring Plateau, consistent with late strong crustal extension. The low interaction between extension and magmatism indicates that mantle plume material was not present at the Lofoten Margin during initial rifting, and that the observed excess magmatism was created by late lateral transport from a nearby pool of plume material into the lithospheric rift zone at breakup time.

  16. Developing rural palliative care: validating a conceptual model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Mary Lou; Williams, Allison; DeMiglio, Lily; Mettam, Hilary

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to validate a conceptual model for developing palliative care in rural communities. This model articulates how local rural healthcare providers develop palliative care services according to four sequential phases. The model has roots in concepts of community capacity development, evolves from collaborative, generalist rural practice, and utilizes existing health services infrastructure. It addresses how rural providers manage challenges, specifically those related to: lack of resources, minimal community understanding of palliative care, health professionals' resistance, the bureaucracy of the health system, and the obstacles of providing services in rural environments. Seven semi-structured focus groups were conducted with interdisciplinary health providers in 7 rural communities in two Canadian provinces. Using a constant comparative analysis approach, focus group data were analyzed by examining participants' statements in relation to the model and comparing emerging themes in the development of rural palliative care to the elements of the model. The data validated the conceptual model as the model was able to theoretically predict and explain the experiences of the 7 rural communities that participated in the study. New emerging themes from the data elaborated existing elements in the model and informed the requirement for minor revisions. The model was validated and slightly revised, as suggested by the data. The model was confirmed as being a useful theoretical tool for conceptualizing the development of rural palliative care that is applicable in diverse rural communities.

  17. Importance of Computer Model Validation in Pyroprocessing Technology Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Y. E.; Li, Hui; Yim, M. S. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    In this research, we developed a plan for experimental validation of one of the computer models developed for ER process modeling, i. e., the ERAD code. Several candidate surrogate materials are selected for the experiment considering the chemical and physical properties. Molten salt-based pyroprocessing technology is being examined internationally as an alternative to treat spent nuclear fuel over aqueous technology. The central process in pyroprocessing is electrorefining(ER) which separates uranium from transuranic elements and fission products present in spent nuclear fuel. ER is a widely used process in the minerals industry to purify impure metals. Studies of ER by using actual spent nuclear fuel materials are problematic for both technical and political reasons. Therefore, the initial effort for ER process optimization is made by using computer models. A number of models have been developed for this purpose. But as validation of these models is incomplete and often times problematic, the simulation results from these models are inherently uncertain.

  18. The turbulent viscosity models and their experimental validation; Les modeles de viscosite turbulente et leur validation experimentale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-31

    This workshop on turbulent viscosity models and on their experimental validation was organized by the `convection` section of the French society of thermal engineers. From the 9 papers presented during this workshop, 8 deal with the modeling of turbulent flows inside combustion chambers, turbo-machineries or in other energy-related applications, and have been selected for ETDE. (J.S.)

  19. Analytical models approximating individual processes: a validation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Favier, C; Degallier, N; Menkès, C E

    2010-12-01

    Upscaling population models from fine to coarse resolutions, in space, time and/or level of description, allows the derivation of fast and tractable models based on a thorough knowledge of individual processes. The validity of such approximations is generally tested only on a limited range of parameter sets. A more general validation test, over a range of parameters, is proposed; this would estimate the error induced by the approximation, using the original model's stochastic variability as a reference. This method is illustrated by three examples taken from the field of epidemics transmitted by vectors that bite in a temporally cyclical pattern, that illustrate the use of the method: to estimate if an approximation over- or under-fits the original model; to invalidate an approximation; to rank possible approximations for their qualities. As a result, the application of the validation method to this field emphasizes the need to account for the vectors' biology in epidemic prediction models and to validate these against finer scale models. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Field validation of the contaminant transport model, FEMA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, K.-F.V.

    1986-01-01

    The work describes the validation with field data of a finite element model of material transport through aquifers (FEMA). Field data from the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant, Idaho, USA and from the 58th Street landfill in Miami, Florida, USA are used. In both cases the model was first calibrated and then integrated over a span of eight years to check on the predictive capability of the model. Both predictive runs gave results that matched well with available data. (author)

  1. Results from the Savannah River Laboratory model validation workshop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pepper, D.W.

    1981-01-01

    To evaluate existing and newly developed air pollution models used in DOE-funded laboratories, the Savannah River Laboratory sponsored a model validation workshop. The workshop used Kr-85 measurements and meteorology data obtained at SRL during 1975 to 1977. Individual laboratories used models to calculate daily, weekly, monthly or annual test periods. Cumulative integrated air concentrations were reported at each grid point and at each of the eight sampler locations

  2. Contact Modelling in Resistance Welding, Part II: Experimental Validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Song, Quanfeng; Zhang, Wenqi; Bay, Niels

    2006-01-01

    Contact algorithms in resistance welding presented in the previous paper are experimentally validated in the present paper. In order to verify the mechanical contact algorithm, two types of experiments, i.e. sandwich upsetting of circular, cylindrical specimens and compression tests of discs...... with a solid ring projection towards a flat ring, are carried out at room temperature. The complete algorithm, involving not only the mechanical model but also the thermal and electrical models, is validated by projection welding experiments. The experimental results are in satisfactory agreement...

  3. Strategic Map for Enceladus Plume Biosignature Sample Return

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwood, B.

    2014-12-01

    The discovery of jets emitting salty water from the interior of Saturn's small moon Enceladus is one of the most astounding results of the Cassini mission to date. The measured presence of organic species in the resulting plume, the finding that the jet activity is valved by tidal stretching at apocrone, the modeled lifetime of E-ring particles, and gravitational inference of a long-lived, deep, large water reservoir all indicate that the textbook conditions for habitability are met at Enceladus today: liquid water, biologically available elements, source of energy, and longevity of conducive conditions. Enceladus may be the best place in our solar system to search for direct evidence of biomarkers, and the plume provides a way to sample, analyze, and even return them to Earth for detailed analysis. For example, it is straightforward to define a Stardust-like, fly-through, plume ice-particle, dust, and gas collection mission. Concept engineering and evaluation indicate that the associated technical, programmatic, regulatory, and cost issues are quite unlike the Stardust precedent however, not least because of such a mission's Category-V, Restricted Earth Return, classification. The poster presents a strategic framework for systematic integration of the enabling issues: cultivation of science advocacy, resolution of diverse stakeholder concerns, development of verifiable and affordable technical solutions, validation of cost estimation methods, alignment with other candidate astrobiology missions, complementarity of international agency goals, and finally the identification of appropriate research and flight-mission opportunities. A strategic approach is essential if we are to know the astrobiological state of Enceladus in our lifetime, and two international teams are already dedicated to implementing key steps on this roadmap.

  4. Advances in Monitoring, Modelling and Forecasting Volcanic Ash Plumes over the Past 5 Years and the Impact on Preparedness from the London VAAC Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. S.; Lisk, I.

    2015-12-01

    Hosted and run by the Met Office, the London VAAC (Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre) is responsible for issuing advisories on the location and likely dispersion of ash clouds originating from volcanoes in the North East Atlantic, primarily from Iceland. These advisories and additional guidance products are used by the civil aviation community to make decisions on airspace flight management. London VAAC has specialist forecasters who use a combination of volcano source data, satellite-based, ground-based and aircraft observations, weather forecast models and dispersion models. Since the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, which resulted in the decision by many northern European countries to impose significant restrictions on the use of their airspace, London VAAC has been active in further developing its volcanic ash monitoring, modelling and forecasting capabilities, collaborating with research organisations, industry, other VAACs, Meteorological Services and the Volcano Observatory in Iceland. It has been necessary to advance operational capabilities to address evolving requirements, including for more quantitative assessments of volcanic ash in the atmosphere. Here we summarise advances in monitoring, modelling and forecasting of volcanic ash plumes over the past 5 years from the London VAAC perspective, and the realization of science into operations. We also highlight the importance of collaborative activities, such as the 'VAAC Best Practice' Workshop, where information is exchanged between all nine VAACs worldwide on the operational practices in monitoring and forecasting volcanic ash, with the aim of working toward a more harmonized service for decision makers in the aviation community. We conclude on an evaluation of how better we are prepared for the next significant ash-rich Icelandic eruption, and the challenges still remaining.

  5. Validation of spectral gas radiation models under oxyfuel conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becher, Johann Valentin

    2013-05-15

    Combustion of hydrocarbon fuels with pure oxygen results in a different flue gas composition than combustion with air. Standard computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) spectral gas radiation models for air combustion are therefore out of their validity range in oxyfuel combustion. This thesis provides a common spectral basis for the validation of new spectral models. A literature review about fundamental gas radiation theory, spectral modeling and experimental methods provides the reader with a basic understanding of the topic. In the first results section, this thesis validates detailed spectral models with high resolution spectral measurements in a gas cell with the aim of recommending one model as the best benchmark model. In the second results section, spectral measurements from a turbulent natural gas flame - as an example for a technical combustion process - are compared to simulated spectra based on measured gas atmospheres. The third results section compares simplified spectral models to the benchmark model recommended in the first results section and gives a ranking of the proposed models based on their accuracy. A concluding section gives recommendations for the selection and further development of simplified spectral radiation models. Gas cell transmissivity spectra in the spectral range of 2.4 - 5.4 {mu}m of water vapor and carbon dioxide in the temperature range from 727 C to 1500 C and at different concentrations were compared in the first results section at a nominal resolution of 32 cm{sup -1} to line-by-line models from different databases, two statistical-narrow-band models and the exponential-wide-band model. The two statistical-narrow-band models EM2C and RADCAL showed good agreement with a maximal band transmissivity deviation of 3 %. The exponential-wide-band model showed a deviation of 6 %. The new line-by-line database HITEMP2010 had the lowest band transmissivity deviation of 2.2% and was therefore recommended as a reference model for the

  6. Large-eddy simulation study of oil/gas plumes in stratified fluid with cross current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Di; Xiao, Shuolin; Chen, Bicheng; Chamecki, Marcelo; Meneveau, Charles

    2017-11-01

    Dynamics of the oil/gas plume from a subsea blowout are strongly affected by the seawater stratification and cross current. The buoyant plume entrains ambient seawater and lifts it up to higher elevations. During the rising process, the continuously increasing density difference between the entrained and ambient seawater caused by the stable stratification eventually results in a detrainment of the entrained seawater and small oil droplets at a height of maximum rise (peel height), forming a downward plume outside the rising inner plume. The presence of a cross current breaks the plume's axisymmetry and causes the outer plume to fall along the downstream side of the inner plume. The detrained seawater and oil eventually fall to a neutral buoyancy level (trap height), and disperse horizontally to form an intrusion layer. In this study, the complex plume dynamics is investigated using large-eddy simulation (LES). Various laboratory and field scale cases are simulated to explore the effect of cross current and stratification on the plume dynamics. Based on the LES data, various turbulence statistics of the plume are systematically quantified, leading to some useful insights for modeling the mean plume dynamics using integral plume models. This research is made possible by a RFP-V Grant from The Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative.

  7. Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Darvishi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS is a new modelling method comprising of multiple interacting agent. They have been used in the different areas; for instance, geographic information system (GIS, biology, economics, social science and computer science. The emergence of ABM toolkits in GIS software libraries (e.g. ESRI’s ArcGIS, OpenMap, GeoTools, etc for geospatial modelling is an indication of the growing interest of users to use of special capabilities of ABMS. Since ABMS is inherently similar to human cognition, therefore it could be built easily and applicable to wide range applications than a traditional simulation. But a key challenge about ABMS is difficulty in their validation and verification. Because of frequent emergence patterns, strong dynamics in the system and the complex nature of ABMS, it is hard to validate and verify ABMS by conventional validation methods. Therefore, attempt to find appropriate validation techniques for ABM seems to be necessary. In this paper, after reviewing on Principles and Concepts of ABM for and its applications, the validation techniques and challenges of ABM validation are discussed.

  8. Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darvishi, M.; Ahmadi, G.

    2014-10-01

    One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) is a new modelling method comprising of multiple interacting agent. They have been used in the different areas; for instance, geographic information system (GIS), biology, economics, social science and computer science. The emergence of ABM toolkits in GIS software libraries (e.g. ESRI's ArcGIS, OpenMap, GeoTools, etc) for geospatial modelling is an indication of the growing interest of users to use of special capabilities of ABMS. Since ABMS is inherently similar to human cognition, therefore it could be built easily and applicable to wide range applications than a traditional simulation. But a key challenge about ABMS is difficulty in their validation and verification. Because of frequent emergence patterns, strong dynamics in the system and the complex nature of ABMS, it is hard to validate and verify ABMS by conventional validation methods. Therefore, attempt to find appropriate validation techniques for ABM seems to be necessary. In this paper, after reviewing on Principles and Concepts of ABM for and its applications, the validation techniques and challenges of ABM validation are discussed.

  9. Dispersion under low wind speed conditions using Gaussian Plume approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rakesh, P.T.; Srinivas, C.V.; Baskaran, R.; Venkatesan, R.; Venkatraman, B.

    2018-01-01

    For radioactive dose computation due to atmospheric releases, dispersion models are essential requirement. For this purpose, Gaussian plume model (GPM) is used in the short range and advanced particle dispersion models are used in all ranges. In dispersion models, other than wind speed the most influential parameter which determines the fate of the pollutant is the turbulence diffusivity. In GPM the diffusivity is represented using empirical approach. Studies show that under low wind speed conditions, the existing diffusivity relationships are not adequate in estimating the diffusion. An important phenomenon that occurs during the low wind speed is the meandering motions. It is found that under meandering motions the extent of plume dispersion is more than the estimated value using conventional GPM and particle transport models. In this work a set of new turbulence parameters for the horizontal diffusion of the plume is suggested and using them in GPM, the plume is simulated and is compared against observation available from Hanford tracer release experiment

  10. Validation of Computer Models for Homeland Security Purposes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweppe, John E.; Ely, James; Kouzes, Richard T.; McConn, Ronald J.; Pagh, Richard T.; Robinson, Sean M.; Siciliano, Edward R.; Borgardt, James D.; Bender, Sarah E.; Earnhart, Alison H.

    2005-01-01

    At Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, we are developing computer models of radiation portal monitors for screening vehicles and cargo. Detailed models of the radiation detection equipment, vehicles, cargo containers, cargos, and radioactive sources have been created. These are used to determine the optimal configuration of detectors and the best alarm algorithms for the detection of items of interest while minimizing nuisance alarms due to the presence of legitimate radioactive material in the commerce stream. Most of the modeling is done with the Monte Carlo code MCNP to describe the transport of gammas and neutrons from extended sources through large, irregularly shaped absorbers to large detectors. A fundamental prerequisite is the validation of the computational models against field measurements. We describe the first step of this validation process, the comparison of the models to measurements with bare static sources

  11. Thermal hydraulic model validation for HOR mixed core fuel management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibcus, H.P.M.; Vries, J.W. de; Leege, P.F.A. de

    1997-01-01

    A thermal-hydraulic core management model has been developed for the Hoger Onderwijsreactor (HOR), a 2 MW pool-type university research reactor. The model was adopted for safety analysis purposes in the framework of HEU/LEU core conversion studies. It is applied in the thermal-hydraulic computer code SHORT (Steady-state HOR Thermal-hydraulics) which is presently in use in designing core configurations and for in-core fuel management. An elaborate measurement program was performed for establishing the core hydraulic characteristics for a variety of conditions. The hydraulic data were obtained with a dummy fuel element with special equipment allowing a.o. direct measurement of the true core flow rate. Using these data the thermal-hydraulic model was validated experimentally. The model, experimental tests, and model validation are discussed. (author)

  12. Validation of the newborn larynx modeling with aerodynamical experimental data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicollas, R; Giordano, J; Garrel, R; Medale, M; Caminat, P; Giovanni, A; Ouaknine, M; Triglia, J M

    2009-06-01

    Many authors have studied adult's larynx modelization, but the mechanisms of newborn's voice production have very rarely been investigated. After validating a numerical model with acoustic data, studies were performed on larynges of human fetuses in order to validate this model with aerodynamical experiments. Anatomical measurements were performed and a simplified numerical model was built using Fluent((R)) with the vocal folds in phonatory position. The results obtained are in good agreement with those obtained by laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) and high-frame rate particle image velocimetry (HFR-PIV), on an experimental bench with excised human fetus larynges. It appears that computing with first cry physiological parameters leads to a model which is close to those obtained in experiments with real organs.

  13. Validation of the dynamic model for a pressurized water reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zwingelstein, Gilles.

    1979-01-01

    Dynamic model validation is a necessary procedure to assure that the developed empirical or physical models are satisfactorily representing the dynamic behavior of the actual plant during normal or abnormal transients. For small transients, physical models which represent isolated core, isolated steam generator and the overall pressurized water reactor are described. Using data collected during the step power changes that occured during the startup procedures, comparisons of experimental and actual transients are given at 30% and 100% of full power. The agreement between the transients derived from the model and those recorded on the plant indicates that the developed models are well suited for use for functional or control studies

  14. Development and validation of a mass casualty conceptual model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culley, Joan M; Effken, Judith A

    2010-03-01

    To develop and validate a conceptual model that provides a framework for the development and evaluation of information systems for mass casualty events. The model was designed based on extant literature and existing theoretical models. A purposeful sample of 18 experts validated the model. Open-ended questions, as well as a 7-point Likert scale, were used to measure expert consensus on the importance of each construct and its relationship in the model and the usefulness of the model to future research. Computer-mediated applications were used to facilitate a modified Delphi technique through which a panel of experts provided validation for the conceptual model. Rounds of questions continued until consensus was reached, as measured by an interquartile range (no more than 1 scale point for each item); stability (change in the distribution of responses less than 15% between rounds); and percent agreement (70% or greater) for indicator questions. Two rounds of the Delphi process were needed to satisfy the criteria for consensus or stability related to the constructs, relationships, and indicators in the model. The panel reached consensus or sufficient stability to retain all 10 constructs, 9 relationships, and 39 of 44 indicators. Experts viewed the model as useful (mean of 5.3 on a 7-point scale). Validation of the model provides the first step in understanding the context in which mass casualty events take place and identifying variables that impact outcomes of care. This study provides a foundation for understanding the complexity of mass casualty care, the roles that nurses play in mass casualty events, and factors that must be considered in designing and evaluating information-communication systems to support effective triage under these conditions.

  15. Verification and Validation of FAARR Model and Data Envelopment Analysis Models for United States Army Recruiting

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Piskator, Gene

    1998-01-01

    ...) model and to develop a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) modeling strategy. First, the FAARR model was verified using a simulation of a known production function and validated using sensitivity analysis and ex-post forecasts...

  16. Continuous validation of ASTEC containment models and regression testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowack, Holger; Reinke, Nils; Sonnenkalb, Martin

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the ASTEC (Accident Source Term Evaluation Code) development at GRS is primarily on the containment module CPA (Containment Part of ASTEC), whose modelling is to a large extent based on the GRS containment code COCOSYS (COntainment COde SYStem). Validation is usually understood as the approval of the modelling capabilities by calculations of appropriate experiments done by external users different from the code developers. During the development process of ASTEC CPA, bugs and unintended side effects may occur, which leads to changes in the results of the initially conducted validation. Due to the involvement of a considerable number of developers in the coding of ASTEC modules, validation of the code alone, even if executed repeatedly, is not sufficient. Therefore, a regression testing procedure has been implemented in order to ensure that the initially obtained validation results are still valid with succeeding code versions. Within the regression testing procedure, calculations of experiments and plant sequences are performed with the same input deck but applying two different code versions. For every test-case the up-to-date code version is compared to the preceding one on the basis of physical parameters deemed to be characteristic for the test-case under consideration. In the case of post-calculations of experiments also a comparison to experimental data is carried out. Three validation cases from the regression testing procedure are presented within this paper. The very good post-calculation of the HDR E11.1 experiment shows the high quality modelling of thermal-hydraulics in ASTEC CPA. Aerosol behaviour is validated on the BMC VANAM M3 experiment, and the results show also a very good agreement with experimental data. Finally, iodine behaviour is checked in the validation test-case of the THAI IOD-11 experiment. Within this test-case, the comparison of the ASTEC versions V2.0r1 and V2.0r2 shows how an error was detected by the regression testing

  17. Validation od computational model ALDERSON/EGSnrc for chest radiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muniz, Bianca C.; Santos, André L. dos; Menezes, Claudio J.M.

    2017-01-01

    To perform dose studies in situations of exposure to radiation, without exposing individuals, the numerical dosimetry uses Computational Exposure Models (ECM). Composed essentially by a radioactive source simulator algorithm, a voxel phantom representing the human anatomy and a Monte Carlo code, the ECMs must be validated to determine the reliability of the physical array representation. The objective of this work is to validate the ALDERSON / EGSnrc MCE by through comparisons between the experimental measurements obtained with the ionization chamber and virtual simulations using Monte Carlo Method to determine the ratio of the input and output radiation dose. Preliminary results of these comparisons showed that the ECM reproduced the results of the experimental measurements performed with the physical phantom with a relative error of less than 10%, validating the use of this model for simulations of chest radiographs and estimates of radiation doses in tissues in the irradiated structures

  18. A practical guide for operational validation of discrete simulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabiano Leal

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available As the number of simulation experiments increases, the necessity for validation and verification of these models demands special attention on the part of the simulation practitioners. By analyzing the current scientific literature, it is observed that the operational validation description presented in many papers does not agree on the importance designated to this process and about its applied techniques, subjective or objective. With the expectation of orienting professionals, researchers and students in simulation, this article aims to elaborate a practical guide through the compilation of statistical techniques in the operational validation of discrete simulation models. Finally, the guide's applicability was evaluated by using two study objects, which represent two manufacturing cells, one from the automobile industry and the other from a Brazilian tech company. For each application, the guide identified distinct steps, due to the different aspects that characterize the analyzed distributions

  19. Progress in Geant4 Electromagnetic Physics Modelling and Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolakis, J; Burkhardt, H; Ivanchenko, V N; Asai, M; Bagulya, A; Grichine, V; Brown, J M C; Chikuma, N; Cortes-Giraldo, M A; Elles, S; Jacquemier, J; Guatelli, S; Incerti, S; Kadri, O; Maire, M; Urban, L; Pandola, L; Sawkey, D; Toshito, T; Yamashita, T

    2015-01-01

    In this work we report on recent improvements in the electromagnetic (EM) physics models of Geant4 and new validations of EM physics. Improvements have been made in models of the photoelectric effect, Compton scattering, gamma conversion to electron and muon pairs, fluctuations of energy loss, multiple scattering, synchrotron radiation, and high energy positron annihilation. The results of these developments are included in the new Geant4 version 10.1 and in patches to previous versions 9.6 and 10.0 that are planned to be used for production for run-2 at LHC. The Geant4 validation suite for EM physics has been extended and new validation results are shown in this work. In particular, the effect of gamma-nuclear interactions on EM shower shape at LHC energies is discussed. (paper)

  20. Validation of statistical models for creep rupture by parametric analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolton, J., E-mail: john.bolton@uwclub.net [65, Fisher Ave., Rugby, Warks CV22 5HW (United Kingdom)

    2012-01-15

    Statistical analysis is an efficient method for the optimisation of any candidate mathematical model of creep rupture data, and for the comparative ranking of competing models. However, when a series of candidate models has been examined and the best of the series has been identified, there is no statistical criterion to determine whether a yet more accurate model might be devised. Hence there remains some uncertainty that the best of any series examined is sufficiently accurate to be considered reliable as a basis for extrapolation. This paper proposes that models should be validated primarily by parametric graphical comparison to rupture data and rupture gradient data. It proposes that no mathematical model should be considered reliable for extrapolation unless the visible divergence between model and data is so small as to leave no apparent scope for further reduction. This study is based on the data for a 12% Cr alloy steel used in BS PD6605:1998 to exemplify its recommended statistical analysis procedure. The models considered in this paper include a) a relatively simple model, b) the PD6605 recommended model and c) a more accurate model of somewhat greater complexity. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The paper discusses the validation of creep rupture models derived from statistical analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It demonstrates that models can be satisfactorily validated by a visual-graphic comparison of models to data. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method proposed utilises test data both as conventional rupture stress and as rupture stress gradient. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach is shown to be more reliable than a well-established and widely used method (BS PD6605).

  1. Multiphysics modelling and experimental validation of high concentration photovoltaic modules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theristis, Marios; Fernández, Eduardo F.; Sumner, Mike; O'Donovan, Tadhg S.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A multiphysics modelling approach for concentrating photovoltaics was developed. • An experimental campaign was conducted to validate the models. • The experimental results were in good agreement with the models. • The multiphysics modelling allows the concentrator’s optimisation. - Abstract: High concentration photovoltaics, equipped with high efficiency multijunction solar cells, have great potential in achieving cost-effective and clean electricity generation at utility scale. Such systems are more complex compared to conventional photovoltaics because of the multiphysics effect that is present. Modelling the power output of such systems is therefore crucial for their further market penetration. Following this line, a multiphysics modelling procedure for high concentration photovoltaics is presented in this work. It combines an open source spectral model, a single diode electrical model and a three-dimensional finite element thermal model. In order to validate the models and the multiphysics modelling procedure against actual data, an outdoor experimental campaign was conducted in Albuquerque, New Mexico using a high concentration photovoltaic monomodule that is thoroughly described in terms of its geometry and materials. The experimental results were in good agreement (within 2.7%) with the predicted maximum power point. This multiphysics approach is relatively more complex when compared to empirical models, but besides the overall performance prediction it can also provide better understanding of the physics involved in the conversion of solar irradiance into electricity. It can therefore be used for the design and optimisation of high concentration photovoltaic modules.

  2. Improving Perovskite Solar Cells: Insights From a Validated Device Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sherkar, Tejas S.; Momblona, Cristina; Gil-Escrig, Lidon; Bolink, Henk J.; Koster, L. Jan Anton

    2017-01-01

    To improve the efficiency of existing perovskite solar cells (PSCs), a detailed understanding of the underlying device physics during their operation is essential. Here, a device model has been developed and validated that describes the operation of PSCs and quantitatively explains the role of

  3. Model validation studies of solar systems, Phase III. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, L.J.; Winn, C.B.

    1978-12-01

    Results obtained from a validation study of the TRNSYS, SIMSHAC, and SOLCOST solar system simulation and design are presented. Also included are comparisons between the FCHART and SOLCOST solar system design programs and some changes that were made to the SOLCOST program. Finally, results obtained from the analysis of several solar radiation models are presented. Separate abstracts were prepared for ten papers.

  4. Validation of a tuber blight (Phytophthora infestans) prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potato tuber blight caused by Phytophthora infestans accounts for significant losses in storage. There is limited published quantitative data on predicting tuber blight. We validated a tuber blight prediction model developed in New York with cultivars Allegany, NY 101, and Katahdin using independent...

  5. Validating soil phosphorus routines in the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phosphorus transfer from agricultural soils to surface waters is an important environmental issue. Commonly used models like SWAT have not always been updated to reflect improved understanding of soil P transformations and transfer to runoff. Our objective was to validate the ability of the P routin...

  6. Temporal validation for landsat-based volume estimation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renaldo J. Arroyo; Emily B. Schultz; Thomas G. Matney; David L. Evans; Zhaofei Fan

    2015-01-01

    Satellite imagery can potentially reduce the costs and time associated with ground-based forest inventories; however, for satellite imagery to provide reliable forest inventory data, it must produce consistent results from one time period to the next. The objective of this study was to temporally validate a Landsat-based volume estimation model in a four county study...

  7. Multiphysics software and the challenge to validating physical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luxat, J.C.

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses multi physics software and validation of physical models in the nuclear industry. The major challenge is to convert the general purpose software package to a robust application-specific solution. This requires greater knowledge of the underlying solution techniques and the limitations of the packages. Good user interfaces and neat graphics do not compensate for any deficiencies

  8. Technical Note: Calibration and validation of geophysical observation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salama, M.S.; van der Velde, R.; van der Woerd, H.J.; Kromkamp, J.C.; Philippart, C.J.M.; Joseph, A.T.; O'Neill, P.E.; Lang, R.H.; Gish, T.; Werdell, P.J.; Su, Z.

    2012-01-01

    We present a method to calibrate and validate observational models that interrelate remotely sensed energy fluxes to geophysical variables of land and water surfaces. Coincident sets of remote sensing observation of visible and microwave radiations and geophysical data are assembled and subdivided

  9. Thermal Plumes in Ventilated Rooms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kofoed, Peter; Nielsen, Peter V.

    The design of a displacement ventilation system involves determination of the flow rate in the thermal plumes. The flow rate in the plumes and the vertical temperature gradient influence each other, and they are influenced by many factors. This paper shows some descriptions of these effects....

  10. Numerical studies of pulsating buoyant plume in isothermal and non isothermal situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, Pavan K.; Singh, R.K.; Mohanty, Ananya; Das, D.

    2014-01-01

    of against obtained by empirical correlations were also presented in the paper. The isothermal buoyant helium plume simulation from inhouse experiments and from open literature have also been carried out. The studies have extended the utility of field model based tools to model the particular separate effect phenomenon like puffing frequency for one such situation and validate against experimental data. The present study have several applications in such as room fires, wildland fires, smoke or ash disposal, hydrogen transport in nuclear reactor containment, natural convection in building flows etc. (author)

  11. Validating firn compaction model with remote sensing data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, S. B.; Stenseng, Lars; Sørensen, Louise Sandberg

    A comprehensive understanding of firn processes is of outmost importance, when estimating present and future changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Especially, when remote sensing altimetry is used to assess the state of ice sheets and their contribution to global sea level rise, firn compaction...... models have been shown to be a key component. Now, remote sensing data can also be used to validate the firn models. Radar penetrating the upper part of the firn column in the interior part of Greenland shows a clear layering. The observed layers from the radar data can be used as an in-situ validation...... correction relative to the changes in the elevation of the surface observed with remote sensing altimetry? What model time resolution is necessary to resolved the observed layering? What model refinements are necessary to give better estimates of the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet from...

  12. Dust Plume Modeling from Ranges and Maneuver Areas on Fort Bliss and the White Sands Missile Range: Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chapman, Elaine G.; Barnard, James C.; Rutz, Frederick C.; Pekour, Mikhail S.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Shaw, William J.

    2009-05-04

    The potential for air quality impacts from heavy mechanized vehicles operating on and between the unpaved main supply routes at Fort Bliss and White Sands Missile Range was investigated. This report details efforts by the staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the Fort Bliss Directorate of Environment in this investigation. Dust emission and dispersion from typical move-out activities occurring on the installations were simulated using the atmospheric modeling system DUSTRAN. Major assumptions associated with designing the modeling scenarios are summarized and results of simulations conducted under these assumptions are presented for four representative meteorological periods.

  13. Selection, calibration, and validation of models of tumor growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, E A B F; Oden, J T; Hormuth, D A; Yankeelov, T E; Almeida, R C

    2016-11-01

    This paper presents general approaches for addressing some of the most important issues in predictive computational oncology concerned with developing classes of predictive models of tumor growth. First, the process of developing mathematical models of vascular tumors evolving in the complex, heterogeneous, macroenvironment of living tissue; second, the selection of the most plausible models among these classes, given relevant observational data; third, the statistical calibration and validation of models in these classes, and finally, the prediction of key Quantities of Interest (QOIs) relevant to patient survival and the effect of various therapies. The most challenging aspects of this endeavor is that all of these issues often involve confounding uncertainties: in observational data, in model parameters, in model selection, and in the features targeted in the prediction. Our approach can be referred to as "model agnostic" in that no single model is advocated; rather, a general approach that explores powerful mixture-theory representations of tissue behavior while accounting for a range of relevant biological factors is presented, which leads to many potentially predictive models. Then representative classes are identified which provide a starting point for the implementation of OPAL, the Occam Plausibility Algorithm (OPAL) which enables the modeler to select the most plausible models (for given data) and to determine if the model is a valid tool for predicting tumor growth and morphology ( in vivo ). All of these approaches account for uncertainties in the model, the observational data, the model parameters, and the target QOI. We demonstrate these processes by comparing a list of models for tumor growth, including reaction-diffusion models, phase-fields models, and models with and without mechanical deformation effects, for glioma growth measured in murine experiments. Examples are provided that exhibit quite acceptable predictions of tumor growth in laboratory

  14. Appearance property and mechanism of plume produced by pulsed ultraviolet laser ablating copper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Qingju; Li Fuquan; Wang Honghua

    2008-01-01

    Time-resolved measurements of plume emission spectra by pulsed ultraviolet laser ablating copper in neon were analyzed, and the photographs of plume from laser ablating copper were taken. The experimental results show that plume has different colours in different ranges. At low pressure the centre layer and middle layer colours of plume are mixed colour, and the outer layer colours of plume are yellow and green. At middle pressure the centre layer and middle layer colours of plume are white, and the outer layer colour of plume is pea green. At high pressure the centre layer and middle layer colours of plume are white, and the outer layer colour of plume is faintness green. The plume range is pressed with the rising of ambient gas pressure, and the range colour gets thin with the rising of ambient gas pressure. The plume excitation radiation mechanism in pulsed ultraviolet laser ablating copper was discussed. The primary excitation radiation mechanism in plume is electron collision energy transfer and atom collision energy transfer at low pressure and middle pressure, and it is electrons Bremsstrahlung and recombination excitation radiation of electron and ion at high pressure. The model can be used to explain the experimental result qualitatively. (authors)

  15. Plume rise from multiple sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briggs, G.A.

    1975-01-01

    A simple enhancement factor for plume rise from multiple sources is proposed and tested against plume-rise observations. For bent-over buoyant plumes, this results in the recommendation that multiple-source rise be calculated as [(N + S)/(1 + S)]/sup 1/3/ times the single-source rise, Δh 1 , where N is the number of sources and S = 6 (total width of source configuration/N/sup 1/3/ Δh 1 )/sup 3/2/. For calm conditions a crude but simple method is suggested for predicting the height of plume merger and subsequent behavior which is based on the geometry and velocity variations of a single buoyant plume. Finally, it is suggested that large clusters of buoyant sources might occasionally give rise to concentrated vortices either within the source configuration or just downwind of it

  16. Sensitivity, applicability and validation of bi-gaussian off- and on-line models for the evaluation of the consequences of accidental releases in nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kretzschmar, J.G.; Mertens, I.; Vanderborght, B.

    1984-01-01

    A computer code CAERS (Computer Aided Emergency Response System) has been developed for the simulation of the short-term concentrations caused by an atmospheric emission. The concentration calculations are based on the bi-gaussian theorem with the possibility of using twelve different sets of turbulence typing schemes and dispersion parameters or the plume can be simulated with a bi-dimensional puff trajectory model with tri-gaussian diffusion of the puffs. With the puff trajectory model the emission and the wind conditions can be variable in time. Sixteen SF 6 tracer dispersion experiments, with mobile as well as stationary time averaging sampling, have been carried out for the validation of the on-line and off-line models of CAERS. The tracer experiments of this study have shown that the CAERS system, using the bi-gaussian model and the SCK/CEN turbulence typing scheme, can simulate short time concentration levels very well. The variations of the plume under non-steady emission and meteo conditions are well simulated by the puff trajectory model. This leads to the general conclusion that the atmospheric dispersion models of the CAERS system can give a significant contribution to the management and the interpretation of air pollution concentration measurements in emergency situations

  17. A review and assessment of variable density ground water flow effects on plume formation at UMTRA project sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    A standard assumption when evaluating the migration of plumes in ground water is that the impacted ground water has the same density as the native ground water. Thus density is assumed to be constant, and does not influence plume migration. This assumption is valid only for water with relatively low total dissolved solids (TDS) or a low difference in TDS between water introduced from milling processes and native ground water. Analyses in the literature suggest that relatively minor density differences can significantly affect plume migration. Density differences as small as 0.3 percent are known to cause noticeable effects on the plume migration path. The primary effect of density on plume migration is deeper migration than would be expected in the arid environments typically present at Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project sites, where little or no natural recharge is available to drive the plume into the aquifer. It is also possible that at some UMTRA Project sites, a synergistic affect occurred during milling operations, where the mounding created by tailings drainage (which created a downward vertical gradient) and the density contrast between the process water and native ground water acted together, driving constituents deeper into the aquifer than either process would alone. Numerical experiments were performed with the U.S. Geological Survey saturated unsaturated transport (SUTRA) model. This is a finite-element model capable of simulating the effects of variable fluid density on ground water flow and solute transport. The simulated aquifer parameters generally are representative of the Shiprock, New Mexico, UMTRA Project site where some of the highest TDS water from processing has been observed

  18. Statistical methods for mechanistic model validation: Salt Repository Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eggett, D.L.

    1988-07-01

    As part of the Department of Energy's Salt Repository Program, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is studying the emplacement of nuclear waste containers in a salt repository. One objective of the SRP program is to develop an overall waste package component model which adequately describes such phenomena as container corrosion, waste form leaching, spent fuel degradation, etc., which are possible in the salt repository environment. The form of this model will be proposed, based on scientific principles and relevant salt repository conditions with supporting data. The model will be used to predict the future characteristics of the near field environment. This involves several different submodels such as the amount of time it takes a brine solution to contact a canister in the repository, how long it takes a canister to corrode and expose its contents to the brine, the leach rate of the contents of the canister, etc. These submodels are often tested in a laboratory and should be statistically validated (in this context, validate means to demonstrate that the model adequately describes the data) before they can be incorporated into the waste package component model. This report describes statistical methods for validating these models. 13 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

  19. Is the 'Fast Halo' around Hawaii as imaged in the PLUME experiment direct evidence for buoyant plume-fed asthenosphere?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, J. P.; Shi, C.; Hasenclever, J.

    2010-12-01

    An intriguing spatial pattern of variations in shear-wave arrival times has been mapped in the PLUME ocean bottom experiment (Wolfe et al., 2009) around Hawaii. The pattern consists of a halo of fast travel times surrounding a disk of slow arrivals from waves traveling up though the plume. We think it is directly sensing the pattern of dynamic uplift of the base of a buoyant asthenosphere - the buoyancy of the plume conduit lifting a 'rim' of the cooler, denser mantle that the plume rises through. The PLUME analysis inverted for lateral shear velocity variations beneath the lithosphere, after removing the assumed 1-D model velocity structure IASP91. They found that a slow plume-conduit extends to at least 1200 km below the Hawaiian hotspot. In this inversion the slow plume conduit is — quite surprisingly - surrounded by a fast wavespeed halo. A fast halo is impossible to explain as a thermal halo around the plume; this should lead to a slow wavespeed halo, not a fast one. Plume-related shearwave anisotropy also cannot simply explain this pattern — simple vertical strain around the plume conduit would result in an anisotropic slow shear-wavespeed halo, not a fast one. (Note the PLUME experiment’s uniform ‘fast-halo’ structure from 50-400km is likely to have strong vertical streaking in the seismic image; Pacific Plate-driven shear across a low-viscosity asthenosphere would be expected to disrupt and distort any cold sheet of vertical downwelling structure between 50-400km depths so that it would no longer be vertical as it is in the 2009 PLUME image with its extremely poor vertical depth control.) If the asthenosphere is plume-fed, hence more buoyant than underlying mantle, then there can be a simple explanation for this pattern. The anomaly would be due to faster traveltimes resulting from dynamic relief at the asthenosphere-mesosphere interface; uplift of the denser mesosphere by the buoyancy of the rising plume increases the distance a wave travels

  20. Verification and Validation of Heat Transfer Model of AGREE Code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tak, N. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Seker, V.; Drzewiecki, T. J.; Downar, T. J. [Department of Nuclear Engineering and Radiological Sciences, Univ. of Michigan, Michigan (United States); Kelly, J. M. [US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington (United States)

    2013-05-15

    The AGREE code was originally developed as a multi physics simulation code to perform design and safety analysis of Pebble Bed Reactors (PBR). Currently, additional capability for the analysis of Prismatic Modular Reactor (PMR) core is in progress. Newly implemented fluid model for a PMR core is based on a subchannel approach which has been widely used in the analyses of light water reactor (LWR) cores. A hexagonal fuel (or graphite block) is discretized into triangular prism nodes having effective conductivities. Then, a meso-scale heat transfer model is applied to the unit cell geometry of a prismatic fuel block. Both unit cell geometries of multi-hole and pin-in-hole types of prismatic fuel blocks are considered in AGREE. The main objective of this work is to verify and validate the heat transfer model newly implemented for a PMR core in the AGREE code. The measured data in the HENDEL experiment were used for the validation of the heat transfer model for a pin-in-hole fuel block. However, the HENDEL tests were limited to only steady-state conditions of pin-in-hole fuel blocks. There exist no available experimental data regarding a heat transfer in multi-hole fuel blocks. Therefore, numerical benchmarks using conceptual problems are considered to verify the heat transfer model of AGREE for multi-hole fuel blocks as well as transient conditions. The CORONA and GAMMA+ codes were used to compare the numerical results. In this work, the verification and validation study were performed for the heat transfer model of the AGREE code using the HENDEL experiment and the numerical benchmarks of selected conceptual problems. The results of the present work show that the heat transfer model of AGREE is accurate and reliable for prismatic fuel blocks. Further validation of AGREE is in progress for a whole reactor problem using the HTTR safety test data such as control rod withdrawal tests and loss-of-forced convection tests.

  1. Validation of the Colorado Retinopathy of Prematurity Screening Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCourt, Emily A; Ying, Gui-Shuang; Lynch, Anne M; Palestine, Alan G; Wagner, Brandie D; Wymore, Erica; Tomlinson, Lauren A; Binenbaum, Gil

    2018-04-01

    The Colorado Retinopathy of Prematurity (CO-ROP) model uses birth weight, gestational age, and weight gain at the first month of life (WG-28) to predict risk of severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). In previous validation studies, the model performed very well, predicting virtually all cases of severe ROP and potentially reducing the number of infants who need ROP examinations, warranting validation in a larger, more diverse population. To validate the performance of the CO-ROP model in a large multicenter cohort. This study is a secondary analysis of data from the Postnatal Growth and Retinopathy of Prematurity (G-ROP) Study, a retrospective multicenter cohort study conducted in 29 hospitals in the United States and Canada between January 2006 and June 2012 of 6351 premature infants who received ROP examinations. Sensitivity and specificity for severe (early treatment of ROP [ETROP] type 1 or 2) ROP, and reduction in infants receiving examinations. The CO-ROP model was applied to the infants in the G-ROP data set with all 3 data points (infants would have received examinations if they met all 3 criteria: birth weight, large validation cohort. The model requires all 3 criteria to be met to signal a need for examinations, but some infants with a birth weight or gestational age above the thresholds developed severe ROP. Most of these infants who were not detected by the CO-ROP model had obvious deviation in expected weight trajectories or nonphysiologic weight gain. These findings suggest that the CO-ROP model needs to be revised before considering implementation into clinical practice.

  2. NW Iberia Shelf Dynamics. Study of the Douro River Plume.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Iglesias

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available River plumes are one of the most important mechanisms that transport the terrestrial materials to the coast and the ocean. Some examples of those materials are pollutants, essential nutrients, which enhance the phytoplankton productivity or sediments, which settle on the seabed producing modifications on the bathymetry affecting the navigation channels. The mixing between the riverine and the oceanic waters can induce instabilities, which might generate bulges, filaments, and buoyant currents over the continental shelf. Offshore, the buoyant riverine water could form a front with the oceanic waters often related with the occurrence of current-jets, eddies and strong mixing. The study and modelling of the river plumes is a key factor for the complete understanding of sediment transport mechanisms and patterns, and of coastal physics and dynamic processes. On this study the Douro River plume will be simulated. The Douro River is located on the north-west Iberian coast and its daily averaged freshwater discharge can range values from 0 to 13000 m3/s. This variability impacts the formation of the river plumes and its dispersion along the continental shelf. This study builds on the long-term objective of generate a Douro River plume forecasting system as part of the RAIA and RAIA.co projects. Satellite imagery was analyzed showing that the river Douro is one of the main sources of suspended particles, dissolved material and chlorophyll in the NW Iberian Shelf. The Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS model was selected to reproduce scenarios of plume generation, retention and dispersion. Whit this model, three types of simulations were performed: (i schematic winds simulations with prescribed river flow, wind speed and direction; (ii multi-year climatological simulation, with river flow and temperature change for each month; (iii extreme case simulation, based on the Entre-os-Rios accident situation. The schematic wind case-studies suggest that the

  3. Plume rise predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briggs, G.A.

    1976-01-01

    Anyone involved with diffusion calculations becomes well aware of the strong dependence of maximum ground concentrations on the effective stack height, h/sub e/. For most conditions chi/sub max/ is approximately proportional to h/sub e/ -2 , as has been recognized at least since 1936 (Bosanquet and Pearson). Making allowance for the gradual decrease in the ratio of vertical to lateral diffusion at increasing heights, the exponent is slightly larger, say chi/sub max/ approximately h/sub e/ - 2 . 3 . In inversion breakup fumigation, the exponent is somewhat smaller; very crudely, chi/sub max/ approximately h/sub e/ -1 . 5 . In any case, for an elevated emission the dependence of chi/sub max/ on h/sub e/ is substantial. It is postulated that a really clever ignorant theoretician can disguise his ignorance with dimensionless constants. For most sources the effective stack height is considerably larger than the actual source height, h/sub s/. For instance, for power plants with no downwash problems, h/sub e/ is more than twice h/sub s/ whenever the wind is less than 10 m/sec, which is most of the time. This is unfortunate for anyone who has to predict ground concentrations, for he is likely to have to calculate the plume rise, Δh. Especially when using h/sub e/ = h/sub s/ + Δh instead of h/sub s/ may reduce chi/sub max/ by a factor of anywhere from 4 to infinity. Factors to be considered in making plume rise predictions are discussed

  4. A process improvement model for software verification and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callahan, John; Sabolish, George

    1994-01-01

    We describe ongoing work at the NASA Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Facility to establish a process improvement model for software verification and validation (V&V) organizations. This model, similar to those used by some software development organizations, uses measurement-based techniques to identify problem areas and introduce incremental improvements. We seek to replicate this model for organizations involved in V&V on large-scale software development projects such as EOS and space station. At the IV&V Facility, a university research group and V&V contractors are working together to collect metrics across projects in order to determine the effectiveness of V&V and improve its application. Since V&V processes are intimately tied to development processes, this paper also examines the repercussions for development organizations in large-scale efforts.

  5. Comparative calculations and validation studies with atmospheric dispersion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paesler-Sauer, J.

    1986-11-01

    This report presents the results of an intercomparison of different mesoscale dispersion models and measured data of tracer experiments. The types of models taking part in the intercomparison are Gaussian-type, numerical Eulerian, and Lagrangian dispersion models. They are suited for the calculation of the atmospherical transport of radionuclides released from a nuclear installation. For the model intercomparison artificial meteorological situations were defined and corresponding arithmetical problems were formulated. For the purpose of model validation real dispersion situations of tracer experiments were used as input data for model calculations; in these cases calculated and measured time-integrated concentrations close to the ground are compared. Finally a valuation of the models concerning their efficiency in solving the problems is carried out by the aid of objective methods. (orig./HP) [de

  6. Biodegradation at Dynamic Plume Fringes: Mixing Versus Reaction Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirpka, O. A.; Eckert, D.; Griebler, C.; Haberer, C.; Kürzinger, P.; Bauer, R.; Mellage, A.

    2014-12-01

    Biodegradation of continuously emitted plumes is known to be most pronounced at the plume fringe, where mixing of contaminated water and ambient groundwater, containing dissolved electron acceptors, stimulates microbial activity. Under steady-state conditions, physical mixing of contaminant and electron acceptor by transverse dispersion was shown to be the major bottleneck for biodegradation, with plume lengths scaling inversely with the bulk transverse dispersivity in quasi two-dimensional settings. Under these conditions, the presence of suitable microbes is essential but the biokinetic parameters do not play an important role. When the location of the plume shifts (caused, e.g., by a fluctuating groundwater table), however, the bacteria are no more situated at the plume fringe and biomass growth, decay, activation and deactivation determine the time lag until the fringe-controlled steady state is approached again. During this time lag, degradation is incomplete. The objective of the presented study was to analyze to which extent flow and transport dynamics diminish effectiveness of fringe-controlled biodegradation and which microbial processes and related biokinetic parameters determine the system response in overall degradation to hydraulic fluctuations. We performed experiments in quasi-two-dimensional flow through microcosms on aerobic toluene degradation by Pseudomonas putida F1. Plume dynamics were simulated by vertical alteration of the toluene plume position and experimental results were analyzed by reactive-transport modeling. We found that, even after disappearance of the toluene plume for two weeks, the majority of microorganisms stayed attached to the sediment and regained their full biodegradation potential within two days after reappearance of the toluene plume. Our results underline that besides microbial growth and maintenance (often subsumed as "biomass decay") microbial dormancy (that is, change into a metabolically inactive state) and

  7. Saharan dust plume charging observed over the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, R. Giles; Nicoll, Keri A.; Marlton, Graeme J.; Ryder, Claire L.; Bennett, Alec J.

    2018-05-01

    A plume of Saharan dust and Iberian smoke was carried across the southern UK on 16th October 2017, entrained into an Atlantic cyclone which had originated as Hurricane Ophelia. The dust plume aloft was widely noticed as it was sufficiently dense to redden the visual appearance of the sun. Time series of backscatter from ceilometers at Reading and Chilbolton show two plumes: one carried upwards to 2.5 km, and another below 800 m into the boundary layer, with a clear slot between. Steady descent of particles at about 50 cm s‑1 continued throughout the morning, and coarse mode particles reached the surface. Plumes containing dust are frequently observed to be strongly charged, often through frictional effects. This plume passed over atmospheric electric field sensors at Bristol, Chilbolton and Reading. Consistent measurements at these three sites indicated negative plume charge. The lower edge plume charge density was (‑8.0 ± 3.3) nC m‑2, which is several times greater than that typical for stratiform water clouds, implying an active in situ charge generation mechanism such as turbulent triboelectrification. A meteorological radiosonde measuring temperature and humidity was launched into the plume at 1412 UTC, specially instrumented with charge and turbulence sensors. This detected charge in the boundary layer and in the upper plume region, and strong turbulent mixing was observed throughout the atmosphere’s lowest 4 km. The clear slot region, through which particles sedimented, was anomalously dry compared with modelled values, with water clouds forming intermittently in the air beneath. Electrical aspects of dust should be included in numerical models, particularly the charge-related effects on cloud microphysical properties, to accurately represent particle behaviour and transport.

  8. Improvement and Validation of Weld Residual Stress Modelling Procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zang, Weilin; Gunnars, Jens; Dong, Pingsha; Hong, Jeong K.

    2009-06-01

    The objective of this work is to identify and evaluate improvements for the residual stress modelling procedure currently used in Sweden. There is a growing demand to eliminate any unnecessary conservatism involved in residual stress assumptions. The study was focused on the development and validation of an improved weld residual stress modelling procedure, by taking advantage of the recent advances in residual stress modelling and stress measurement techniques. The major changes applied in the new weld residual stress modelling procedure are: - Improved procedure for heat source calibration based on use of analytical solutions. - Use of an isotropic hardening model where mixed hardening data is not available. - Use of an annealing model for improved simulation of strain relaxation in re-heated material. The new modelling procedure is demonstrated to capture the main characteristics of the through thickness stress distributions by validation to experimental measurements. Three austenitic stainless steel butt-welds cases are analysed, covering a large range of pipe geometries. From the cases it is evident that there can be large differences between the residual stresses predicted using the new procedure, and the earlier procedure or handbook recommendations. Previously recommended profiles could give misleading fracture assessment results. The stress profiles according to the new procedure agree well with the measured data. If data is available then a mixed hardening model should be used

  9. Validated TRNSYS Model for Solar Assisted Space Heating System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdalla, Nedal

    2014-01-01

    The present study involves a validated TRNSYS model for solar assisted space heating system as applied to a residential building in Jordan using new detailed radiation models of the TRNSYS 17.1 and geometric building model Trnsys3d for the Google SketchUp 3D drawing program. The annual heating load for a building (Solar House) which is located at the Royal ScientiFIc Society (RS5) in Jordan is estimated under climatological conditions of Amman. The aim of this Paper is to compare measured thermal performance of the Solar House with that modeled using TRNSYS. The results showed that the annual measured space heating load for the building was 6,188 kWh while the heati.ng load for the modeled building was 6,391 kWh. Moreover, the measured solar fraction for the solar system was 50% while the modeled solar fraction was 55%. A comparison of modeled and measured data resulted in percentage mean absolute errors for solar energy for space heating, auxiliary heating and solar fraction of 13%, 7% and 10%, respectively. The validated model will be useful for long-term performance simulation under different weather and operating conditions.(author)

  10. Improvement and Validation of Weld Residual Stress Modelling Procedure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zang, Weilin; Gunnars, Jens (Inspecta Technology AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Dong, Pingsha; Hong, Jeong K. (Center for Welded Structures Research, Battelle, Columbus, OH (United States))

    2009-06-15

    The objective of this work is to identify and evaluate improvements for the residual stress modelling procedure currently used in Sweden. There is a growing demand to eliminate any unnecessary conservatism involved in residual stress assumptions. The study was focused on the development and validation of an improved weld residual stress modelling procedure, by taking advantage of the recent advances in residual stress modelling and stress measurement techniques. The major changes applied in the new weld residual stress modelling procedure are: - Improved procedure for heat source calibration based on use of analytical solutions. - Use of an isotropic hardening model where mixed hardening data is not available. - Use of an annealing model for improved simulation of strain relaxation in re-heated material. The new modelling procedure is demonstrated to capture the main characteristics of the through thickness stress distributions by validation to experimental measurements. Three austenitic stainless steel butt-welds cases are analysed, covering a large range of pipe geometries. From the cases it is evident that there can be large differences between the residual stresses predicted using the new procedure, and the earlier procedure or handbook recommendations. Previously recommended profiles could give misleading fracture assessment results. The stress profiles according to the new procedure agree well with the measured data. If data is available then a mixed hardening model should be used

  11. The planet beyond the plume hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Alan D.; Lewis, Charles

    1999-12-01

    Acceptance of the theory of plate tectonics was accompanied by the rise of the mantle plume/hotspot concept which has come to dominate geodynamics from its use both as an explanation for the origin of intraplate volcanism and as a reference frame for plate motions. However, even with a large degree of flexibility permitted in plume composition, temperature, size, and depth of origin, adoption of any limited number of hotspots means the plume model cannot account for all occurrences of the type of volcanism it was devised to explain. While scientific protocol would normally demand that an alternative explanation be sought, there have been few challenges to "plume theory" on account of a series of intricate controls set up by the plume model which makes plumes seem to be an essential feature of the Earth. The hotspot frame acts not only as a reference but also controls plate tectonics. Accommodating plumes relegates mantle convection to a weak, sluggish effect such that basal drag appears as a minor, resisting force, with plates having to move themselves by boundary forces and continents having to be rifted by plumes. Correspondingly, the geochemical evolution of the mantle is controlled by the requirement to isolate subducted crust into plume sources which limits potential buffers on the composition of the MORB-source to plume- or lower mantle material. Crustal growth and Precambrian tectonics are controlled by interpretations of greenstone belts as oceanic plateaus generated by plumes. Challenges to any aspect of the plume model are thus liable to be dismissed unless a counter explanation is offered across the geodynamic spectrum influenced by "plume theory". Nonetheless, an alternative synthesis can be made based on longstanding petrological evidence for derivation of intraplate volcanism from volatile-bearing sources (wetspots) in conjunction with concepts dismissed for being incompatible or superfluous to "plume theory". In the alternative Earth, the sources for

  12. Geographic and temporal validity of prediction models: Different approaches were useful to examine model performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.C. Austin (Peter); D. van Klaveren (David); Y. Vergouwe (Yvonne); D. Nieboer (Daan); D.S. Lee (Douglas); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractObjective: Validation of clinical prediction models traditionally refers to the assessment of model performance in new patients. We studied different approaches to geographic and temporal validation in the setting of multicenter data from two time periods. Study Design and Setting: We

  13. Validation of an O-18 leaf water enrichment model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeggi, M.; Saurer, M.; Siegwolf, R.

    2002-03-01

    The seasonal trend in {delta}{sup 18}O{sub ol} in leaf organic matter of spruce needles of mature trees could be modelled for two years. The seasonality was mainly explained by the {delta}{sup 18}O of top-soil water, whereas between years differences were due to variation in air humidity. Application of a third year's data set improved the correlation between modelled and measured {delta}{sup 18}O{sub ol} and thus validated our extended Dongmann model. (author)

  14. Numerical Validation of Chemical Compositional Model for Wettability Alteration Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekbauov, Bakhbergen; Berdyshev, Abdumauvlen; Baishemirov, Zharasbek; Bau, Domenico

    2017-12-01

    Chemical compositional simulation of enhanced oil recovery and surfactant enhanced aquifer remediation processes is a complex task that involves solving dozens of equations for all grid blocks representing a reservoir. In the present work, we perform a numerical validation of the newly developed mathematical formulation which satisfies the conservation laws of mass and energy and allows applying a sequential solution approach to solve the governing equations separately and implicitly. Through its application to the numerical experiment using a wettability alteration model and comparisons with existing chemical compositional model's numerical results, the new model has proven to be practical, reliable and stable.

  15. Validation of Slosh Modeling Approach Using STAR-CCM+

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, David J.; Ng, Wanyi

    2018-01-01

    Without an adequate understanding of propellant slosh, the spacecraft attitude control system may be inadequate to control the spacecraft or there may be an unexpected loss of science observation time due to higher slosh settling times. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is used to model propellant slosh. STAR-CCM+ is a commercially available CFD code. This paper seeks to validate the CFD modeling approach via a comparison between STAR-CCM+ liquid slosh modeling results and experimental, empirically, and analytically derived results. The geometries examined are a bare right cylinder tank and a right cylinder with a single ring baffle.

  16. Mount Etna-Iblean volcanism caused by rollback-induced upper mantle upwelling around the Ionian slab edge : An alternative to the plume model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schellart, W. P.

    Volcanism in Sicily (Italy) at Mount Etna (0.5 Ma to present) and the Iblean Plateau (ca. 7.0-1.1 Ma) remains enigmatic, because it is located in close proximity to, but is laterally offset from, the Calabrian subduction zone. Previous work suggests that the volcanism results from a plume or from

  17. Argonne National Laboratory's thermal plume measurements: instruments and techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Loon, L.S.; Frigo, A.A.; Paddock, R.A.

    1977-12-01

    Instrumentation and techniques were developed at Argonne National Laboratory for measuring the three-dimensional temperature structure of thermal plumes from power plants, along with the limnological, meteorological, and plant operating conditions affecting their behavior. The equipment and procedures were designed to provide field data for use in evaluating predictive models that describe thermal plume behavior, and over 100 sets of these data have been collected. The instrument systems and techniques employed in a typical thermal discharge survey are highly integrated. Continuous monitoring of ambient and plant conditions is coupled with plume mapping from a moving survey boat. The instantaneous location of the boat together with subsurface temperature measurements from a towed thermistor chain provide a quasisynoptic view of the plume structure. Real-time, onboard display of the boat path and vertical temperatures supply feedback to investigators for determining the extent and spatial resolution of measurements required. The unique design, reliability, accuracy, calibration, and historical development of the components of these integrated systems are described. Survey system interfaces with data handling and processing techniques are also explained. Special supportive studies to investigate plume dynamics, values of eddy diffusivities, time-temperature histories of water parcels in thermal plumes, and rapid changes in plume shape are also described along with instrumentation used

  18. Cross validation for the classical model of structured expert judgment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colson, Abigail R.; Cooke, Roger M.

    2017-01-01

    We update the 2008 TU Delft structured expert judgment database with data from 33 professionally contracted Classical Model studies conducted between 2006 and March 2015 to evaluate its performance relative to other expert aggregation models. We briefly review alternative mathematical aggregation schemes, including harmonic weighting, before focusing on linear pooling of expert judgments with equal weights and performance-based weights. Performance weighting outperforms equal weighting in all but 1 of the 33 studies in-sample. True out-of-sample validation is rarely possible for Classical Model studies, and cross validation techniques that split calibration questions into a training and test set are used instead. Performance weighting incurs an “out-of-sample penalty” and its statistical accuracy out-of-sample is lower than that of equal weighting. However, as a function of training set size, the statistical accuracy of performance-based combinations reaches 75% of the equal weight value when the training set includes 80% of calibration variables. At this point the training set is sufficiently powerful to resolve differences in individual expert performance. The information of performance-based combinations is double that of equal weighting when the training set is at least 50% of the set of calibration variables. Previous out-of-sample validation work used a Total Out-of-Sample Validity Index based on all splits of the calibration questions into training and test subsets, which is expensive to compute and includes small training sets of dubious value. As an alternative, we propose an Out-of-Sample Validity Index based on averaging the product of statistical accuracy and information over all training sets sized at 80% of the calibration set. Performance weighting outperforms equal weighting on this Out-of-Sample Validity Index in 26 of the 33 post-2006 studies; the probability of 26 or more successes on 33 trials if there were no difference between performance

  19. Rise of a cold plume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kakuta, Michio

    1977-06-01

    The rise of smoke from the stacks of two research reactors in normal operation was measured by photogrametric method. The temperature of effluent gas is less than 20 0 C higher than that of the ambient air (heat emission of the order 10 4 cal s -1 ), and the efflux velocity divided by the wind speed is between 0.5 and 2.8 in all 16 smoke runs. The field data obtained within downwind distance of 150m are compared with those by plume rise formulas presently available. Considering the shape of bending-over plume, the Briggs' formula for 'jet' gives a reasonable explanation of the observed plume rise. (auth.)

  20. ADMS-AIRPORT: MODEL INTER-COMPARISIONS AND MODEL VALIDATION

    OpenAIRE

    Carruthers, David; McHugh, Christine; Church, Stephanie; Jackson, Mark; Williams, Matt; Price, Catheryn; Lad, Chetan

    2008-01-01

    Abstract: The functionality of ADMS-Airport and details of its use in the Model Inter-comparison Study of the Project for the Sustainable Development of Heathrow Airport (PSDH) have previously been presented, Carruthers et al (2007). A distinguishing feature is the treatment of jet engine emissions as moving jet sources rather than averaging these emissions into volume sources as is the case in some other models. In this presentation two further studies are presented which each contribu...

  1. Approaches to Validation of Models for Low Gravity Fluid Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chato, David J.; Marchetta, Jeffery; Hochstein, John I.; Kassemi, Mohammad

    2005-01-01

    This paper details the author experiences with the validation of computer models to predict low gravity fluid behavior. It reviews the literature of low gravity fluid behavior as a starting point for developing a baseline set of test cases. It examines authors attempts to validate their models against these cases and the issues they encountered. The main issues seem to be that: Most of the data is described by empirical correlation rather than fundamental relation; Detailed measurements of the flow field have not been made; Free surface shapes are observed but through thick plastic cylinders, and therefore subject to a great deal of optical distortion; and Heat transfer process time constants are on the order of minutes to days but the zero-gravity time available has been only seconds.

  2. Isotopes as validation tools for global climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson-Sellers, A.

    2001-01-01

    Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the predominant tool with which we predict the future climate. In order that people can have confidence in such predictions, GCMs require validation. As almost every available item of meteorological data has been exploited in the construction and tuning of GCMs to date, independent validation is very difficult. This paper explores the use of isotopes as a novel and fully independent means of evaluating GCMs. The focus is the Amazon Basin which has a long history of isotope collection and analysis and also of climate modelling: both having been reported for over thirty years. Careful consideration of the results of GCM simulations of Amazonian deforestation and climate change suggests that the recent stable isotope record is more consistent with the predicted effects of greenhouse warming, possibly combined with forest removal, than with GCM predictions of the effects of deforestation alone

  3. Modeling and Simulation Behavior Validation Methodology and Extension Model Validation for the Individual Soldier

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    domains. Major model functions include: • Ground combat: Light and heavy forces. • Air mobile forces. • Future forces. • Fixed-wing and rotary-wing...Constraints: • Study must be completed no later than 31 December 2014. • Entity behavior limited to select COMBATXXI Mobility , Unmanned Aerial System...and SQL backend , as well as any open application programming interface API. • Allows data transparency and data driven navigation through the model

  4. The Green Propellant Infusion Mission Thruster Performance Testing for Plume Diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deans, Matthew C.; Reed, Brian D.; Arrington, Lynn A.; Williams, George J.; Kojima, Jun J.; Kinzbach, McKenzie I.; McLean, Christopher H.

    2014-01-01

    The Green Propellant Infusion Mission (GPIM) is sponsored by NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM) office. The goal of GPIM is to advance the technology readiness level of a green propulsion system, specifically, one using the monopropellant, AF-M315E, by demonstrating ground handling, spacecraft processing, and on-orbit operations. One of the risks identified for GPIM is potential contamination of sensitive spacecraft surfaces from the effluents in the plumes of AF-M315E thrusters. NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is conducting activities to characterize the effects of AF-M315E plume impingement and deposition. GRC has established individual plume models of the 22-N and 1-N thrusters that will be used on the GPIM spacecraft. The model simulations will be correlated with plume measurement data from Laboratory and Engineering Model 22-N, AF-M315E thrusters. The thrusters are currently being tested in a small rocket, altitude facility at NASA GRC. A suite of diagnostics, including Raman spectroscopy, Rayleigh spectroscopy, and Schlieren imaging are being used to acquire plume measurements of AF-M315E thrusters. Plume data will include temperature, velocity, relative density, and species concentration. The plume measurement data will be compared to the corresponding simulations of the plume model. The GRC effort will establish a data set of AF-M315E plume measurements and a plume model that can be used for future AF-M315E applications.

  5. Pharmacokinetic modeling of gentamicin in treatment of infective endocarditis: Model development and validation of existing models

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Wijk, Lars; Proost, Johannes H.; Sinha, Bhanu; Touw, Daan J.

    2017-01-01

    Gentamicin shows large variations in half-life and volume of distribution (Vd) within and between individuals. Thus, monitoring and accurately predicting serum levels are required to optimize effectiveness and minimize toxicity. Currently, two population pharmacokinetic models are applied for predicting gentamicin doses in adults. For endocarditis patients the optimal model is unknown. We aimed at: 1) creating an optimal model for endocarditis patients; and 2) assessing whether the endocarditis and existing models can accurately predict serum levels. We performed a retrospective observational two-cohort study: one cohort to parameterize the endocarditis model by iterative two-stage Bayesian analysis, and a second cohort to validate and compare all three models. The Akaike Information Criterion and the weighted sum of squares of the residuals divided by the degrees of freedom were used to select the endocarditis model. Median Prediction Error (MDPE) and Median Absolute Prediction Error (MDAPE) were used to test all models with the validation dataset. We built the endocarditis model based on data from the modeling cohort (65 patients) with a fixed 0.277 L/h/70kg metabolic clearance, 0.698 (±0.358) renal clearance as fraction of creatinine clearance, and Vd 0.312 (±0.076) L/kg corrected lean body mass. External validation with data from 14 validation cohort patients showed a similar predictive power of the endocarditis model (MDPE -1.77%, MDAPE 4.68%) as compared to the intensive-care (MDPE -1.33%, MDAPE 4.37%) and standard (MDPE -0.90%, MDAPE 4.82%) models. All models acceptably predicted pharmacokinetic parameters for gentamicin in endocarditis patients. However, these patients appear to have an increased Vd, similar to intensive care patients. Vd mainly determines the height of peak serum levels, which in turn correlate with bactericidal activity. In order to maintain simplicity, we advise to use the existing intensive-care model in clinical practice to avoid

  6. Pharmacokinetic modeling of gentamicin in treatment of infective endocarditis: Model development and validation of existing models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Gomes

    Full Text Available Gentamicin shows large variations in half-life and volume of distribution (Vd within and between individuals. Thus, monitoring and accurately predicting serum levels are required to optimize effectiveness and minimize toxicity. Currently, two population pharmacokinetic models are applied for predicting gentamicin doses in adults. For endocarditis patients the optimal model is unknown. We aimed at: 1 creating an optimal model for endocarditis patients; and 2 assessing whether the endocarditis and existing models can accurately predict serum levels. We performed a retrospective observational two-cohort study: one cohort to parameterize the endocarditis model by iterative two-stage Bayesian analysis, and a second cohort to validate and compare all three models. The Akaike Information Criterion and the weighted sum of squares of the residuals divided by the degrees of freedom were used to select the endocarditis model. Median Prediction Error (MDPE and Median Absolute Prediction Error (MDAPE were used to test all models with the validation dataset. We built the endocarditis model based on data from the modeling cohort (65 patients with a fixed 0.277 L/h/70kg metabolic clearance, 0.698 (±0.358 renal clearance as fraction of creatinine clearance, and Vd 0.312 (±0.076 L/kg corrected lean body mass. External validation with data from 14 validation cohort patients showed a similar predictive power of the endocarditis model (MDPE -1.77%, MDAPE 4.68% as compared to the intensive-care (MDPE -1.33%, MDAPE 4.37% and standard (MDPE -0.90%, MDAPE 4.82% models. All models acceptably predicted pharmacokinetic parameters for gentamicin in endocarditis patients. However, these patients appear to have an increased Vd, similar to intensive care patients. Vd mainly determines the height of peak serum levels, which in turn correlate with bactericidal activity. In order to maintain simplicity, we advise to use the existing intensive-care model in clinical practice to

  7. In-Drift Microbial Communities Model Validation Calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. M. Jolley

    2001-09-24

    The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS M&O 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS M&O 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN MO9909SPAMING1.003 using its replacement DTN MO0106SPAIDM01.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M&O 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS M&O (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 2001) which includes controls for the management of electronic data.

  8. In-Drift Microbial Communities Model Validation Calculation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. M. Jolley

    2001-10-31

    The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS M&O 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS M&O 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN MO9909SPAMING1.003 using its replacement DTN MO0106SPAIDM01.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M&O 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS M&O (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 2001) which includes controls for the management of electronic data.

  9. IN-DRIFT MICROBIAL COMMUNITIES MODEL VALIDATION CALCULATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D.M. Jolley

    2001-12-18

    The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS M&O 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS M&O 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN M09909SPAMINGl.003 using its replacement DTN M00106SPAIDMO 1.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M&O 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS M&O (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 200 1) which includes controls for the management of electronic data.

  10. In-Drift Microbial Communities Model Validation Calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jolley, D.M.

    2001-01-01

    The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS MandO 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS MandO 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN MO9909SPAMING1.003 using its replacement DTN MO0106SPAIDM01.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS MandO 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS MandO (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 2001) which includes controls for the management of electronic data

  11. IN-DRIFT MICROBIAL COMMUNITIES MODEL VALIDATION CALCULATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D.M. Jolley

    2001-01-01

    The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS M andO 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS M andO 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN M09909SPAMINGl.003 using its replacement DTN M00106SPAIDMO 1.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M andO 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS M andO (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 200 1) which includes controls for the management of electronic data

  12. Monte Carlo Modelling of Mammograms : Development and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spyrou, G; Panayiotakis, G [Univercity of Patras, School of Medicine, Medical Physics Department, 265 00 Patras (Greece); Bakas, A [Technological Educational Institution of Athens, Department of Radiography, 122 10 Athens (Greece); Tzanakos, G [University of Athens, Department of Physics, Divission of Nuclear and Particle Physics, 157 71 Athens (Greece)

    1999-12-31

    A software package using Monte Carlo methods has been developed for the simulation of x-ray mammography. A simplified geometry of the mammographic apparatus has been considered along with the software phantom of compressed breast. This phantom may contain inhomogeneities of various compositions and sizes at any point. Using this model one can produce simulated mammograms. Results that demonstrate the validity of this simulation are presented. (authors) 16 refs, 4 figs

  13. Towards Model Validation and Verification with SAT Techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Gogolla, Martin

    2010-01-01

    After sketching how system development and the UML (Unified Modeling Language) and the OCL (Object Constraint Language) are related, validation and verification with the tool USE (UML-based Specification Environment) is demonstrated. As a more efficient alternative for verification tasks, two approaches using SAT-based techniques are put forward: First, a direct encoding of UML and OCL with Boolean variables and propositional formulas, and second, an encoding employing an...

  14. Trailing Edge Noise Model Validation and Application to Airfoil Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bertagnolio, Franck; Aagaard Madsen, Helge; Bak, Christian

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this article is twofold. First, an existing trailing edge noise model is validated by comparing with airfoil surface pressure fluctuations and far field sound pressure levels measured in three different experiments. The agreement is satisfactory in one case but poor in two other cases...... across the boundary layer near the trailing edge and to a lesser extent by a smaller boundary layer displacement thickness. ©2010 American Society of Mechanical Engineers...

  15. Experimental Validation of a Permeability Model for Enrichment Membranes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orellano, Pablo; Brasnarof, Daniel; Florido Pablo

    2003-01-01

    An experimental loop with a real scale diffuser, in a single enrichment-stage configuration, was operated with air at different process conditions, in order to characterize the membrane permeability.Using these experimental data, an analytical geometric-and-morphologic-based model was validated.It is conclude that a new set of independent measurements, i.e. enrichment, is necessary in order to fully characterize diffusers, because of its internal parameters are not univocally determinated with permeability experimental data only

  16. Requirements Validation: Execution of UML Models with CPN Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Machado, Ricardo J.; Lassen, Kristian Bisgaard; Oliveira, Sérgio

    2007-01-01

    Requirements validation is a critical task in any engineering project. The confrontation of stakeholders with static requirements models is not enough, since stakeholders with non-computer science education are not able to discover all the inter-dependencies between the elicited requirements. Eve...... requirements, where the system to be built must explicitly support the interaction between people within a pervasive cooperative workflow execution. A case study from a real project is used to illustrate the proposed approach....

  17. Monte Carlo Modelling of Mammograms : Development and Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spyrou, G.; Panayiotakis, G.; Bakas, A.; Tzanakos, G.

    1998-01-01

    A software package using Monte Carlo methods has been developed for the simulation of x-ray mammography. A simplified geometry of the mammographic apparatus has been considered along with the software phantom of compressed breast. This phantom may contain inhomogeneities of various compositions and sizes at any point. Using this model one can produce simulated mammograms. Results that demonstrate the validity of this simulation are presented. (authors)

  18. Calculation of doses received while crossing a plume of radioactive material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scherpelz, R.I.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1981-04-01

    A method has been developed for determining the dose received by a person while crossing a plume of radioactive material. The method uses a Gaussian plume model to arrive at a dose rate on the plume centerline at the position of the plume crossing. This dose rate may be due to any external or internal dose pathway. An algebraic formula can then be used to convert the plume centerline dose rate to a total dose integrated over the total time of plume crossing. Correction factors are presented for dose pathways in which the dose rate is not normally distributed about the plume centerline. The method is illustrated by a study done at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory, and results of this study are presented

  19. On the relative motions of long-lived Pacific mantle plumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konrad, Kevin; Koppers, Anthony A P; Steinberger, Bernhard; Finlayson, Valerie A; Konter, Jasper G; Jackson, Matthew G

    2018-02-27

    Mantle plumes upwelling beneath moving tectonic plates generate age-progressive chains of volcanos (hotspot chains) used to reconstruct plate motion. However, these hotspots appear to move relative to each other, implying that plumes are not laterally fixed. The lack of age constraints on long-lived, coeval hotspot chains hinders attempts to reconstruct plate motion and quantify relative plume motions. Here we provide 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages for a newly identified long-lived mantle plume, which formed the Rurutu hotspot chain. By comparing the inter-hotspot distances between three Pacific hotspots, we show that Hawaii is unique in its strong, rapid southward motion from 60 to 50 Myrs ago, consistent with paleomagnetic observations. Conversely, the Rurutu and Louisville chains show little motion. Current geodynamic plume motion models can reproduce the first-order motions for these plumes, but only when each plume is rooted in the lowermost mantle.

  20. Cross-Validation of Aerobic Capacity Prediction Models in Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Ryan Donald; Hannon, James C; Brusseau, Timothy A; Eisenman, Patricia A; Saint-Maurice, Pedro F; Welk, Greg J; Mahar, Matthew T

    2015-08-01

    Cardiorespiratory endurance is a component of health-related fitness. FITNESSGRAM recommends the Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER) or One mile Run/Walk (1MRW) to assess cardiorespiratory endurance by estimating VO2 Peak. No research has cross-validated prediction models from both PACER and 1MRW, including the New PACER Model and PACER-Mile Equivalent (PACER-MEQ) using current standards. The purpose of this study was to cross-validate prediction models from PACER and 1MRW against measured VO2 Peak in adolescents. Cardiorespiratory endurance data were collected on 90 adolescents aged 13-16 years (Mean = 14.7 ± 1.3 years; 32 girls, 52 boys) who completed the PACER and 1MRW in addition to a laboratory maximal treadmill test to measure VO2 Peak. Multiple correlations among various models with measured VO2 Peak were considered moderately strong (R = .74-0.78), and prediction error (RMSE) ranged from 5.95 ml·kg⁻¹,min⁻¹ to 8.27 ml·kg⁻¹.min⁻¹. Criterion-referenced agreement into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zones was considered fair-to-good among models (Kappa = 0.31-0.62; Agreement = 75.5-89.9%; F = 0.08-0.65). In conclusion, prediction models demonstrated moderately strong linear relationships with measured VO2 Peak, fair prediction error, and fair-to-good criterion referenced agreement with measured VO2 Peak into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zones.

  1. Recent validation studies for two NRPB environmental transfer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, J.; Simmonds, J.R.

    1991-01-01

    The National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB) developed a dynamic model for the transfer of radionuclides through terrestrial food chains some years ago. This model, now called FARMLAND, predicts both instantaneous and time integrals of concentration of radionuclides in a variety of foods. The model can be used to assess the consequences of both accidental and routine releases of radioactivity to the environment; and results can be obtained as a function of time. A number of validation studies have been carried out on FARMLAND. In these the model predictions have been compared with a variety of sets of environmental measurement data. Some of these studies will be outlined in the paper. A model to predict external radiation exposure from radioactivity deposited on different surfaces in the environment has also been developed at NRPB. This model, called EXPURT (EXPosure from Urban Radionuclide Transfer), can be used to predict radiation doses as a function of time following deposition in a variety of environments, ranging from rural to inner-city areas. This paper outlines validation studies and future extensions to be carried out on EXPURT. (12 refs., 4 figs.)

  2. Methods for Geometric Data Validation of 3d City Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, D.; Alam, N.; Wewetzer, M.; Pries, M.; Coors, V.

    2015-12-01

    Geometric quality of 3D city models is crucial for data analysis and simulation tasks, which are part of modern applications of the data (e.g. potential heating energy consumption of city quarters, solar potential, etc.). Geometric quality in these contexts is however a different concept as it is for 2D maps. In the latter case, aspects such as positional or temporal accuracy and correctness represent typical quality metrics of the data. They are defined in ISO 19157 and should be mentioned as part of the metadata. 3D data has a far wider range of aspects which influence their quality, plus the idea of quality itself is application dependent. Thus, concepts for definition of quality are needed, including methods to validate these definitions. Quality on this sense means internal validation and detection of inconsistent or wrong geometry according to a predefined set of rules. A useful starting point would be to have correct geometry in accordance with ISO 19107. A valid solid should consist of planar faces which touch their neighbours exclusively in defined corner points and edges. No gaps between them are allowed, and the whole feature must be 2-manifold. In this paper, we present methods to validate common geometric requirements for building geometry. Different checks based on several algorithms have been implemented to validate a set of rules derived from the solid definition mentioned above (e.g. water tightness of the solid or planarity of its polygons), as they were developed for the software tool CityDoctor. The method of each check is specified, with a special focus on the discussion of tolerance values where they are necessary. The checks include polygon level checks to validate the correctness of each polygon, i.e. closeness of the bounding linear ring and planarity. On the solid level, which is only validated if the polygons have passed validation, correct polygon orientation is checked, after self-intersections outside of defined corner points and edges

  3. Validation of the WATEQ4 geochemical model for uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krupka, K.M.; Jenne, E.A.; Deutsch, W.J.

    1983-09-01

    As part of the Geochemical Modeling and Nuclide/Rock/Groundwater Interactions Studies Program, a study was conducted to partially validate the WATEQ4 aqueous speciation-solubility geochemical model for uranium. The solubility controls determined with the WATEQ4 geochemical model were in excellent agreement with those laboratory studies in which the solids schoepite [UO 2 (OH) 2 . H 2 O], UO 2 (OH) 2 , and rutherfordine ((UO 2 CO 3 ) were identified as actual solubility controls for uranium. The results of modeling solution analyses from laboratory studies of uranyl phosphate solids, however, identified possible errors in the characterization of solids in the original solubility experiments. As part of this study, significant deficiencies in the WATEQ4 thermodynamic data base for uranium solutes and solids were corrected. Revisions included recalculation of selected uranium reactions. Additionally, thermodynamic data for the hydroxyl complexes of U(VI), including anionic (VI) species, were evaluated (to the extent permitted by the available data). Vanadium reactions were also added to the thermodynamic data base because uranium-vanadium solids can exist in natural ground-water systems. This study is only a partial validation of the WATEQ4 geochemical model because the available laboratory solubility studies do not cover the range of solid phases, alkaline pH values, and concentrations of inorganic complexing ligands needed to evaluate the potential solubility of uranium in ground waters associated with various proposed nuclear waste repositories. Further validation of this or other geochemical models for uranium will require careful determinations of uraninite solubility over the pH range of 7 to 10 under highly reducing conditions and of uranyl hydroxide and phosphate solubilities over the pH range of 7 to 10 under oxygenated conditions

  4. Validation of fracture flow models in the Stripa project

    International Nuclear Informa