Sample records for pleistocene enso-like influences

  1. Comparison of Forced ENSO-Like Hydrological Expressions in Simulations of the Preindustrial and Mid-Holocene (United States)

    Lewis, Sophie C.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Kelley, Maxwell


    Using the water isotope- and vapor source distribution (VSD) tracer-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R, we examine changing El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like expressions in the hydrological cycle in a suite of model experiments. We apply strong surface temperature anomalies associated with composite observed El Nino and La Nina events as surface boundary conditions to preindustrial and mid-Holocene model experiments in order to investigate ENSO-like expressions in the hydrological cycle under varying boundary conditions. We find distinct simulated hydrological anomalies associated with El Nino-like ("ENSOWARM") and La Nina-like ("ENSOCOOL") conditions, and the region-specific VSD tracers show hydrological differences across the Pacific basin between El Nino-like and La Nina-like events. The application of ENSOCOOL forcings does not produce climatological anomalies that represent the equal but opposite impacts of the ENSOWARM experiment, as the isotopic anomalies associated with ENSOWARM conditions are generally stronger than with ENSOCOOL and the spatial patterns of change distinct. Also, when the same ENSO-like surface temperature anomalies are imposed on the mid-Holocene, the hydrological response is muted, relative to the preindustrial. Mid-Holocene changes in moisture sources to the analyzed regions across the Pacific reveal potentially complex relationships between ENSO-like conditions and boundary conditions. Given the complex impacts of ENSO-like conditions on various aspects of the hydrological cycle, we suggest that proxy record insights into paleo-ENSO variability are most likely to be robust when synthesized from a network of many spatially diverse archives, which can account for the potential nonstationarity of ENSO teleconnections under different boundary conditions.

  2. Influences of the ENSO event on the rainfall of dry Sudan

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    One third of the world's population live in places where medium to high water stress is compounded by pollution, climate change, inefficient management approaches and governance issues. This study detects the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and signals, and the influences of the different ENSO stages in the ...

  3. A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal

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    Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca


    Full Text Available The atmospheric seasonal cycle of the North Atlantic region is dominated by meridional movements of the circulation systems: from the tropics, where the West African Monsoon and extreme tropical weather events take place, to the extratropics, where the circulation is dominated by seasonal changes in the jetstream and extratropical cyclones. Climate variability over the North Atlantic is controlled by various mechanisms. Atmospheric internal variability plays a crucial role in the mid-latitudes. However, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO is still the main source of predictability in this region situated far away from the Pacific. Although the ENSO influence over tropical and extra-tropical areas is related to different physical mechanisms, in both regions this teleconnection seems to be non-stationary in time and modulated by multidecadal changes of the mean flow. Nowadays, long observational records (greater than 100 years and modeling projects (e.g., CMIP permit detecting non-stationarities in the influence of ENSO over the Atlantic basin, and further analyzing its potential mechanisms. The present article reviews the ENSO influence over the Atlantic region, paying special attention to the stability of this teleconnection over time and the possible modulators. Evidence is given that the ENSO–Atlantic teleconnection is weak over the North Atlantic. In this regard, the multidecadal ocean variability seems to modulate the presence of teleconnections, which can lead to important impacts of ENSO and to open windows of opportunity for seasonal predictability.

  4. Influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure at the global-scale (United States)

    Muis, S.; Haigh, I. D.; Guimarães Nobre, G.; Aerts, J.; Ward, P.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant signal of interannual climate variability. The unusually warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific drives interannual variability in both mean and extreme sea levels, which in turn may influence the probabilities and impacts of coastal flooding. We assess the influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure using daily timeseries from the Global Time and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset (Muis et al., 2016). As the GTSR timeseries do not include steric effects (i.e. density differences), we improve the GTSR timeseries by adding steric sea levels. Evaluation against observed sea levels shows that the including steric sea levels leads to a much better representation of the seasonal and interannual variability. We show that sea level anomalies occur during ENSO years with higher sea levels during La Niña in the South-Atlantic, Indian Ocean and the West Pacific, whereas sea levels are lower in the east Pacific. The pattern is generally inversed for El Niño. We also find an effect of ENSO in the number of people exposed to coastal flooding. Although the effect is minor at the global-scale, it may be important for flood risk management to consider at the national or sub national levels. Previous studies at the global-scale have used tide gauge observation to assess the influence of ENSO on extreme sea levels. The advantage of our approach over observations is that GTSR provides a consistent dataset with a full global coverage for the period 1979-2014. This allows us to assess ENSO's influence on sea level extremes anywhere in the world. Furthermore, it enables us to also calculate the impacts of extreme sea levels in terms of coastal flooding and exposed population. ReferencesMuis et al (2016) A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels. Nature Communications.7:11969. doi:10.1038/ncomms11969.

  5. The complex influence of ENSO on droughts in Ecuador

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, S. M.


    In this study, we analyzed the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the spatio-temporal variability of droughts in Ecuador for a 48-year period (1965–2012). Droughts were quantified from 22 high-quality and homogenized time series of precipitation and air temperature by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. In addition, the propagation of two different ENSO indices (El Niño 3.4 and El Niño 1 + 2 indices) and other atmospheric circulation processes (e.g., vertical velocity) on different time-scales of drought severity were investigated. The results showed a very complex influence of ENSO on drought behavior across Ecuador, with two regional patterns in the evolution of droughts: (1) the Andean chain with no changes in drought severity, and (2) the Western plains with less severe and frequent droughts. We also detected that drought variability in the Andes mountains is explained by the El Niño 3.4 index [sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central Pacific], whereas the Western plains are much more driven by El Niño 1 + 2 index (SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific). Moreover, it was also observed that El Niño and La Niña phases enhance droughts in the Andes and Western plains regions, respectively. The results of this work could be crucial for predicting and monitoring drought variability and intensity in Ecuador. © 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

  6. Do regions outside the tropical Pacific influence ENSO through atmospheric teleconnections?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Dayan, H.; Izumo, T.; Vialard, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Masson, S

    This paper aims at identifying oceanic regions outside the tropical Pacific, which may influence the El Ni�o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through interannual modulation of equatorial Pacific winds An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) 7...

  7. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO and global warming

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    B. Nyenzi


    Full Text Available It is widely accepted by the international scientific community that human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG and aerosols since the pre-industrial era. This increase has contributed to most of the warming (0.6±0.2°C observed over the 20th century, land areas warming more than the oceans, with the 1990s very likely to be the warmest decade of the 20th century (IPCC, 2001. How this warming influences the occurrence, severity and frequency of ENSO episodes remains highly uncertain. The IPCC (2001 assessment of the scientific literature found insufficient evidence to suggest any direct attribution between increase in ENSO events that occurred in the last 20 to 30 years of the 20th century and global warming (IPCC, 2001. However, assessments carried out since then (e.g. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, in preparations suggest El Niño events have become more frequent, persistent and intense during the last 20 to 30 years compared to the previous 100 years. Attribution to global warming, however, remains highly uncertain. Efforts to simulate and model past, present and future behaviour of ENSO under a warming world due to enhanced GHG concentrations produce conflicting results. Since substantial internally-generated variability of ENSO behaviour on multi-decadal to century timescales occurs in long, unforced atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM simulations, the attribution of past and future changes in ENSO amplitude and frequency to external forcing like GHG concentrations cannot be made with certainty. Such attribution would require extensive use of ensemble climate experiments or long experiments with stabilised GHG forcing. Although there are now better ENSO simulations in AOGCM, further model improvements are needed to simulate a more realistic Pacific climatology and seasonal cycle of the key modes influencing the climate of the region, as well as more realistic ENSO variability

  8. Role of the upper ocean structure in the response of ENSO-like SST variability to global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeh, Sang-Wook [Hanyang University, Department of Environmental Marine Science, Ansan (Korea); Dewitte, Boris [Laboratoire d' Etude en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, Toulouse (France); Yim, Bo Young; Noh, Yign [Yonsei University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Global Environmental Laboratory, Seoul (Korea)


    The response of El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like variability to global warming varies comparatively between the two different climate system models, i.e., the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). Here, we examine the role of the simulated upper ocean temperature structure in the different sensitivities of the simulated ENSO variability in the models based on the different level of CO{sub 2} concentrations. In the MRI model, the sea surface temperature (SST) undergoes a rather drastic modification, namely a tendency toward a permanent El Nino-like state. This is associated with an enhanced stratification which results in greater ENSO amplitude for the MRI model. On the other hand, the ENSO simulated by GFDL model is hardly modified although the mean temperature in the near surface layer increases. In order to understand the associated mechanisms we carry out a vertical mode decomposition of the mean equatorial stratification and a simplified heat balance analysis using an intermediate tropical Pacific model tuned from the CGCM outputs. It is found that in the MRI model the increased stratification is associated with an enhancement of the zonal advective feedback and the non-linear advection. In the GFDL model, on the other hand, the thermocline variability and associated anomalous vertical advection are reduced in the eastern equatorial Pacific under global warming, which erodes the thermocline feedback and explains why the ENSO amplitude is reduced in a warmer climate in this model. It is suggested that change in stratification associated with global warming impacts the equatorial wave dynamics in a way that enhances the second baroclinic mode over the gravest one, which leads to the change in feedback processes in the CGCMs. Our results illustrate that the upper ocean vertical structure simulated in the CGCMs is a key parameter of the sensitivity of ENSO-like

  9. The Influence of ENSO to the Rainfall Variability in North Sumatra Province (United States)

    Irwandi, H.; Pusparini, N.; Ariantono, J. Y.; Kurniawan, R.; Tari, C. A.; Sudrajat, A.


    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global phenomenon that affects the variability of rainfall in North Sumatra. The influence of ENSO will be different for each region. This review will analyse the influence of ENSO activity on seasonal and annual rainfall variability. In this research, North Sumatra Province will be divided into 4 (four) regions based on topographical conditions, such as: East Coast (EC), East Slope (ES), Mountains (MT), and West Coast (WC). The method used was statistical and descriptive analysis. Data used in this research were rainfall data from 15 stations / climate observation posts which spread in North Sumatera region and also anomaly data of Nino 3.4 region from period 1981-2016. The results showed that the active El Niño had an effect on the decreasing the rainfall during the period of DJF, JJA and SON in East Coast, East Slope, and Mountains with the decreasing of average percentage of annual rainfall up to 7%. On the contrary, the active La Nina had an effect on the addition of rainfall during the period DJF and JJA in the East Coast and Mountains with the increasing of average percentage of annual rainfall up to 6%.

  10. Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming (United States)

    Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.


    By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that

  11. Present El Niño-ENSO events and past Super-ENSO events

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    -to-century time scale-giving rise to Super-ENSO events. A number of such events are identified during the Holocene. A major event took place in medieval time. High-amplitude changes in the period 13.5-9.5 Ka may represent some sort of Mega-ENSO events. During the Ice Ages with much higher total rate of rotation, ENSO-El Niño events are likely to be absent. In the short-term records of the past, imprints from Super-ENSO events are likely to be much more frequent than real interannual ENSO events simply because these records are too short and usually too small.

  12. The influence of boreal spring Arctic Oscillation on the subsequent winter ENSO in CMIP5 models (United States)

    Chen, Shangfeng; Chen, Wen; Yu, Bin


    This study examines the influence of boreal spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the subsequent winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using 15 climate model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that, out of the 15 CMIP5 models, CCSM4 and CNRM-CM5 can well reproduce the significant AO-ENSO connection. These two models capture the observed spring AO related anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over the subtropical western-central North Pacific, and westerly (easterly) winds over the tropical western-central Pacific. In contrast, the spring AO-related anomalous circulation over the subtropical North Pacific is insignificant in the other 13 models, and the simulations in these models cannot capture the significant influence of the spring AO on ENSO. Further analyses indicate that the performance of the CMIP5 simulations in reproducing the AO-ENSO connection is related to the ability in simulating the spring North Pacific synoptic eddy intensity and the spring AO's Pacific component. Strong synoptic-scale eddy intensity results in a strong synoptic eddy feedback on the mean flow, leading to strong cyclonic circulation anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific, which contributes to a significant AO-ENSO connection. In addition, a strong spring AO's Pacific component and associated easterly wind anomalies to its south may provide more favorable conditions for the development of spring AO-related cyclonic circulation anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific.

  13. Air-temperature variations and ENSO effects in Indonesia, the Philippines and El Salvador. ENSO patterns and changes from 1866-1993 (United States)

    Harger, J. R. E.

    industrial development in infrastructure for Jakarta has been significant only since 1980 or so and was not apparent before 1970 when the city had the aspect of an extended village with few large buildings (greater than 3-4 stories) and no extensive highways. The 1.65° difference between 1866 and 1991 can presumably by partitioned into: (1) urban heat-island effect, (2) effect of deforestation, (3) effect of secular micro-climate shift, (4) influence of general global warming with particular reference to the tropics. When the blocks of non-ENSO years in themselves are considered, the deviations from the secular trend for warmest month mean temperatures in successive years are correlated with that of the next immediate year deviation so that either continual warming or cooling appears to take place from the termination of one ENSO to the initiation of the next. When the deviations around the secular trend shown by the warmest month average temperatures are summed for the inter-ENSO intervals (the separate non-ENSO years) the resultant "heat-loading" index is positively correlated with the following (initial) ENSO warmest month deviation from the overall ENSO warmest month secular trend. This provides an immediate predictive mechanism for the likely strength of an ENSO, in terms of the dry season impact to the Island of Java, should one occur in the next year to break a non-ENSO sequence. The length of the build-up and the build-up achieved seems not to be related. The relationship does not in itself however, predict the occurrence of the "next" ENSO. The data show that a consistent structure underlies ENSO events for the last century and a quarter. However, as a process monitored by mean monthly air-temperature measurements at Jakarta-Semarang, the system is changing in character with time in association with an overall atmospheric temperature increase in a way that involves increased intra-annual temperature fluctuations. In general ENSO years are associated with higher

  14. Spatiotemporal Variance of Global Horizontal Moisture Transport and the Influence of Strong ENSO Events Using ERA-Interim Reanalysis (United States)

    Kutta, E. J.; Hubbart, J. A.; Svoma, B. M.; Eichler, T. P.; Lupo, A. R.


    El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well documented as a leading source of seasonal to inter-annual variations in global weather and climate. Strong ENSO events have been shown to alter the location and magnitude of Hadley and Walker circulations that maintain equilibrium at tropical latitudes and regulate moisture transport into mid-latitude storm tracks. Broad impacts associated with ENSO events include anomalous regional precipitation (ARP) and temperature patterns and subsequent impacts to socioeconomic and human health systems. Potential socioeconomic and human health impacts range from regional changes in water resources and agricultural productivity to local storm water management, particularly in rapidly urbanizing watersheds. Evidence is mounting to suggest that anthropogenic climate change will increase the frequency of heavy precipitation events, which compounds impacts of ARP patterns associated with strong El Nino events. Therefore, the need exists to identify common regional patterns of spatiotemporal variance of horizontal moisture flux (HMF) during months (Oct-Feb) associated with the peak intensity (Oceanic Nino Index [ONI]) of the three strongest El Nino (ONI > µ + 2σ) and La Nina (ONI hourly resolution before taking the density weighted vertical average. Long term means (LTM; 1979-2015) were quantified and the influence of strong ENSO events was assessed by quantifying deviations from the LTM for each respective covariance property during months associated with the selected ENSO events. Results reveal regions of statistically significant (CI = 0.05) differences from the LTM for the vertically integrated HMF and each covariance quantity. Broader implications of this work include potential for improved seasonal precipitation forecasts at regional scales and subsequent improvements to local water resource management. There is potential for future work objectively comparing these results with output from Earth System Models to improve

  15. Influence of surface nudging on climatological mean and ENSO feedbacks in a coupled model (United States)

    Zhu, Jieshun; Kumar, Arun


    Studies have suggested that surface nudging could be an efficient way to reconstruct the subsurface ocean variability, and thus a useful method for initializing climate predictions (e.g., seasonal and decadal predictions). Surface nudging is also the basis for climate models with flux adjustments. In this study, however, some negative aspects of surface nudging on climate simulations in a coupled model are identified. Specifically, a low-resolution version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2L) is used to examine the influence of nudging on simulations of climatological mean and on the coupled feedbacks during ENSO. The effect on ENSO feedbacks is diagnosed following a heat budget analysis of mixed layer temperature anomalies. Diagnostics of the climatological mean state indicates that, even though SST biases in all ocean basins, as expected, are eliminated, the fidelity of climatological precipitation, surface winds and subsurface temperature (or the thermocline depth) could be highly ocean basin dependent. This is exemplified by improvements in the climatology of these variables in the tropical Atlantic, but degradations in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, surface nudging also distorts the dynamical feedbacks during ENSO. For example, while the thermocline feedback played a critical role during the evolution of ENSO in a free simulation, it only played a minor role in the nudged simulation. These results imply that, even though the simulation of surface temperature could be improved in a climate model with surface nudging, the physics behind might be unrealistic.

  16. ENSO shifts and their link to Southern Africa surface air temperature in summer (United States)

    Manatsa, D.; Mukwada, G.; Makaba, L.


    ENSO has been known to influence the trends of summer warming over Southern Africa. In this work, we used observational and reanalysis data to analyze the relationship between ENSO and maximum surface air temperature (SATmax) trends during the three epochs created by the ENSO phase shifts around 1977 and 1997 for the period 1960 to 2014. We observed that while ENSO and cloud cover remains the dominant factor controlling SATmax variability, the first two epochs had the predominant La Niña (El Niño)-like events connected to robust positive (negative) trends in cloud fraction. However, this established relationship reversed in the post-1997 La Niña-like dominated epoch which coincided with a falling cloud cover trend. It is established that this deviation from the previously established link within the previous epochs could be due to the post-1998 era in which SATmin was suppressed while SATmax was enhanced. The resulting increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) could have discouraged the formation of low-level clouds which have relatively more extensive areal coverage and hence allowing more solar energy to reach the surface to boost daytime SATmax. It is noted that these relationships are more pronounced from December to March.

  17. Influence of ENSO on Regional Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation—Local Atmospheric Influences or Remote Influence from Pacific

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    Indrani Roy


    Full Text Available Using CMIP5 model outputs in different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases, this work investigates the indicator that could be used as an Index to characterise regional Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM precipitation. Dividing the Indian subcontinent into five arbitrarily chosen regions, viz. Central North East (CNE (18°N–31°N, 86°E–75°E, Hilly (H (28°N–38°N, 85°E–70°E, North West (NW (21°N–31°N, 79°E–67°E, North East (NE (21°N–31°N, 86°E–97°E and Southern India (S (18°N–7°N, 73°E–85°E, local wind field and remote influences from the tropical Pacific are considered to improve understanding of regional monsoon rainfall. Results are also compared with observations/reanalysis data to pinpoint areas of shortcomings and agreements. Model results suggest that regional wind velocity, viz. meridional wind component (V at 850 mb level (V850 and zonal component at 200 mb (U200 and 850 mb (U850 can yield better estimation of local precipitation in regions CNE, H and NW, agreeing well with earlier proposed monsoon Indices. Such observations are independent of different subcategories of ENSO phases and models show good correspondence with observations. Analyses with V at 200 mb (V200 indicate circulation of the upper branch of Hadley cells in regions CNE and S, though suggest the best agreement among models in comparison with other fields, but there are some deviations from observations, indicating a missing mechanism in the models. Using models, this study identified the best parameter in different regions that could be used for the regional monsoon Index, irrespective of various ENSO subcategories; for CNE it is the U200, for H it is U200 and U850, and for NW it is U850. The current analysis, however, fails to indicate anything clearly about the NE region. When focusing on the remote influence from the eastern Pacific region, it is found that atmospheric contribution to regional ISM precipitation fails to indicate

  18. Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances (United States)

    Bruun, John T.; Allen, J. Icarus; Smyth, Timothy J.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and human activities. The up to 10 year quasi-period cycle of the El Niño and subsequent La Niña is known to be dominated in the tropics by nonlinear physical interaction of wind with the equatorial waveguide in the Pacific. Long-term cyclic phenomena do not feature in the current theory of the ENSO process. We update the theory by assessing low (>10 years) and high (features. The observational data sets of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Pacific Index Anomaly, and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, as well as a theoretical model all confirm the existence of long-term and short-term climatic cycles of the ENSO process with resonance frequencies of {2.5, 3.8, 5, 12-14, 61-75, 180} years. This fundamental result shows long-term and short-term signal coupling with mode locking across the dominant ENSO dynamics. These dominant oscillation frequency dynamics, defined as ENSO frequency states, contain a stable attractor with three frequencies in resonance allowing us to coin the term Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation due to its characteristic shape. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short-term and long-term ENSO oscillations over the next century.Plain Language SummaryThe Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and our human activities. This work can help predict both long-term and short-term future ENSO events and to assess the risk of future climate hysteresis changes: is the elastic band that regulates the ENSO climate breaking? We update the current theory of the ENSO process with a sophisticated analysis approach (Dominant Frequency State Analysis) to include long-term oscillations (up to 200 years) as well as tropical and extratropical interaction dynamics. The analysis uses instrumental and paleoproxy data

  19. The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale (United States)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

  20. Mean-state SST Response to global warming caused by the ENSO Nonlinearity (United States)

    Kohyama, T.; Hartmann, D. L.


    The majority of the models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) exhibit El Niño-like trends under global warming. GFDL-ESM2M, however, is an exception that exhibits a La Niña-like response with strengthened trade winds. Our previous studies have shown that this La Niña-like trend could be a physically consistent warming response, and we proposed the Nonlinear ENSO Warming Suppression (NEWS) mechanism to explain this La Niña-like response to global warming. The most important necessary condition of NEWS is the ENSO skewness (El Niños are stronger than La Niñas). Most CMIP5 models do not reproduce the observed ENSO skewness, while GFDL-ESM2M exhibits the realistic ENSO skewness, which suggests that, despite being in the minority, the La Niña-like trend of GFDL-ESM2M could be a plausible equatorial Pacific response to warming. In this study, we introduce another interesting outlier, MIROC5, which reproduces the observed skewness, yet exhibits an El Niño-like response. By decomposing the source of the ENSO nonlinearity into the following three components: "SST anomalies modulate winds", "winds excite oceanic waves", and "oceanic waves modulate the subsurface temperature", we show that the large inter-model spread of the third component appears to explain the most important cause of the poor reproducibility of the ENSO nonlinearity in CMIP5 models. It is concluded that the change in the response of subsurface temperature to oceanic waves is the primary explanation for the different warming response of GFDL-ESM2M and MIROC5. Our analyses suggest that the difference of the warming response are caused by difference in the climatological thermal stratification. This study may shed new light on the fundamental question of why observed ENSO has a strong skewness and on the implications of this skewed ENSO for the mean-state sea surface temperature response to global warming.

  1. Influence of Mean State Changes on the Structure of ENSO in a Tropical Coupled GCM. (United States)

    Codron, Francis; Vintzileos, Augustin; Sadourny, Robert


    This study examines the response of the climate simulated by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace tropical Pacific coupled general circulation model to two changes in parameterization: an improved coupling scheme at the coast, and the introduction of a saturation mixing ratio limiter in the water vapor advection scheme, which improves the rainfall distribution over and around orography. The main effect of these modifications is the suppression of spurious upwelling off the South American coast in Northern Hemisphere summer. Coupled feedbacks then extend this warming over the whole basin in an El Niño-like structure, with a maximum at the equator and in the eastern part of the basin. The mean precipitation pattern widens and moves equatorward as the trade winds weaken.This warmer mean state leads to a doubling of the standard deviation of interannual SST anomalies, and to a longer ENSO period. The structure of the ENSO cycle also shifts from westward propagation in the original simulation to a standing oscillation. The simulation of El Niño thus improves when compared to recent observed events. The study of ENSO spatial structure and lagged correlations shows that these changes of El Niño characteristics are caused by both the increase of amplitude and the modification of the spatial structure of the wind stress response to SST anomalies.These results show that both the mean state and variability of the tropical ocean can be very sensitive to biases or forcings, even geographically localized. They may also give some insight into the mechanisms responsible for the changes in ENSO characteristics due to decadal variability or climate change.

  2. Interdecadal variations of ENSO around 1999/2000 (United States)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Huang, Bohua; Zhu, Jieshun; Ren, Hong-Li


    This paper discusses the interdecadal changes of the climate in the tropical Pacific with a focus on the corresponding changes in the characteristics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Compared with 1979-1999, the whole tropical Pacific climate system, including both the ocean and atmosphere, shifted to a lower variability regime after 1999/2000. Meanwhile, the frequency of ENSO became less regular and was closer to a white noise process. The lead time of the equatorial Pacific's subsurface ocean heat content in preceding ENSO decreased remarkably, in addition to a reduction in the maximum correlation between them. The weakening of the correlation and the shortening of the lead time pose more challenges for ENSO prediction, and is the likely reason behind the decrease in skill with respect to ENSO prediction after 2000. Coincident with the changes in tropical Pacific climate variability, the mean states of the atmospheric and oceanic components also experienced physically coherent changes. The warm anomaly of SST in the western Pacific and cold anomaly in the eastern Pacific resulted in an increased zonal SST gradient, linked to an enhancement in surface wind stress and strengthening of the Walker circulation, as well as an increase in the slope of the thermocline. These changes were consistent with an increase (a decrease) in precipitation and an enhancement (a suppression) of the deep convection in the western (eastern) equatorial Pacific. Possible connections between the mean state and ENSO variability and frequency changes in the tropical Pacific are also discussed.

  3. Different impacts of mega-ENSO and conventional ENSO on the Indian summer rainfall: developing phase (United States)

    Zhang, Lei; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhou, Yefan


    Mega-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a boarder version of conventional ENSO, is found to be a main driving force of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon rainfall including the Indian summer rainfall (ISR). The simultaneous impacts of "pure" mega-ENSO and "pure" conventional ENSO events on the ISR in its developing summer remains unclear. This study examines the different linkages between mega-ENSO-ISR and conventional ENSO-ISR. During the developing summer of mega-El Niño, negative rainfall anomalies are seen over the northeastern Indian subcontinent, while the anomalous rainfall pattern is almost the opposite for mega-La Niña; as for the conventional ENSO, the approximate "linear opposite" phenomenon vanishes. Furthermore, the global zonal wave trains anomalous are found at mid-latitude zones, with a local triple circulation pattern over the central-east Eurasia during mega-ENSO events, which might be an explanation of corresponding rainfall response over the Indian Peninsula. Among 106-year historical run (1900-2005) of 9 state-of-the-art models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), HadGEM2-ES performs a promising skill in simulating the anomalous circulation pattern over mid-latitude and central-east Eurasia while CanESM2 cannot. Probably, it is the models' ability of capturing the mega-ENSO-ISR linkage and the characteristic of mega-ENSO that make the difference.

  4. ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections and Their Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing (United States)

    Yeh, Sang-Wook; Cai, Wenju; Min, Seung-Ki; McPhaden, Michael J.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Dewitte, Boris; Collins, Matthew; Ashok, Karumuri; An, Soon-Il; Yim, Bo-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong


    El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent year-to-year climate fluctuation on Earth, alternating between anomalously warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) sea surface temperature (SST) conditions in the tropical Pacific. ENSO exerts its impacts on remote regions of the globe through atmospheric teleconnections, affecting extreme weather events worldwide. However, these teleconnections are inherently nonlinear and sensitive to ENSO SST anomaly patterns and amplitudes. In addition, teleconnections are modulated by variability in the oceanic and atmopsheric mean state outside the tropics and by land and sea ice extent. The character of ENSO as well as the ocean mean state have changed since the 1990s, which might be due to either natural variability or anthropogenic forcing, or their combined influences. This has resulted in changes in ENSO atmospheric teleconnections in terms of precipitation and temperature in various parts of the globe. In addition, changes in ENSO teleconnection patterns have affected their predictability and the statistics of extreme events. However, the short observational record does not allow us to clearly distinguish which changes are robust and which are not. Climate models suggest that ENSO teleconnections will change because the mean atmospheric circulation will change due to anthropogenic forcing in the 21st century, which is independent of whether ENSO properties change or not. However, future ENSO teleconnection changes do not currently show strong intermodel agreement from region to region, highlighting the importance of identifying factors that affect uncertainty in future model projections.

  5. The complex influence of ENSO on droughts in Ecuador

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Aguilar, E.; Martí nez, R.; Martí n-Herná ndez, N.; Azorin-Molina, C.; Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.; El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; Tomá s-Burguera, M.; Moran-Tejeda, E.; Ló pez-Moreno, J. I.; Revuelto, J.; Beguerí a, S.; Nieto, J. J.; Drumond, A.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.


    of precipitation and air temperature by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. In addition, the propagation of two different ENSO indices (El Niño 3.4 and El Niño 1 + 2 indices) and other atmospheric circulation processes (e.g., vertical

  6. Indian Ocean and Indian summer monsoon: relationships without ENSO in ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations (United States)

    Crétat, Julien; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sébastien; Sooraj, K. P.; Roxy, Mathew Koll


    The relationship between the Indian Ocean and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and their respective influence over the Indo-Western North Pacific (WNP) region are examined in the absence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in two partially decoupled global experiments. ENSO is removed by nudging the tropical Pacific simulated sea surface temperature (SST) toward SST climatology from either observations or a fully coupled control run. The control reasonably captures the observed relationships between ENSO, ISM and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Despite weaker amplitude, IODs do exist in the absence of ENSO and are triggered by a boreal spring ocean-atmosphere coupled mode over the South-East Indian Ocean similar to that found in the presence of ENSO. These pure IODs significantly affect the tropical Indian Ocean throughout boreal summer, inducing a significant modulation of both the local Walker and Hadley cells. This meridional circulation is masked in the presence of ENSO. However, these pure IODs do not significantly influence the Indian subcontinent rainfall despite overestimated SST variability in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean compared to observations. On the other hand, they promote a late summer cross-equatorial quadrupole rainfall pattern linking the tropical Indian Ocean with the WNP, inducing important zonal shifts of the Walker circulation despite the absence of ENSO. Surprisingly, the interannual ISM rainfall variability is barely modified and the Indian Ocean does not force the monsoon circulation when ENSO is removed. On the contrary, the monsoon circulation significantly forces the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal SSTs, while its connection with the western tropical Indian Ocean is clearly driven by ENSO in our numerical framework. Convection and diabatic heating associated with above-normal ISM induce a strong response over the WNP, even in the absence of ENSO, favoring moisture convergence over India.

  7. ENSO, IOD and Indian Summer Monsoon in NCEP climate forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pokhrel, Samir; Chaudhari, H.S.; Saha, Subodh K.; Dhakate, Ashish; Yadav, R.K.; Salunke, Kiran; Mahapatra, S.; Rao, Suryachandra A. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pashan, Pune (India)


    El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall features are explored statistically and dynamically using National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv1) freerun in relation to observations. The 100 years of freerun provides a sufficiently long homogeneous data set to find out the mean state, periodicity, coherence among these climatic events and also the influence of ENSO and IOD on the Indian monsoon. Differences in the occurrence of seasonal precipitation between the observations and CFS freerun are examined as a coupled ocean-atmosphere system. CFS simulated ENSO and IOD patterns and their associated tropical Walker and regional Hadley circulation in pure ENSO (PEN), pure IOD (PIO) and coexisting ENSO-IOD (PEI) events have some similarity to the observations. PEN composites are much closer to the observation as compared to PIO and PEI composites, which suggest a better ENSO prediction and its associated teleconnections as compared to IOD and combined phenomenon. Similar to the observation, the model simulation also show that the decrease in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during ENSO phases is associated with a descending motion of anomalous Walker circulation and the increase in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during IOD phase is associated with the ascending branch of anomalous regional Hadley circulation. During co-existing ENSO and IOD years, however, the fate of Indian summer monsoon is dictated by the combined influence of both of them. The shift in the anomalous descending and ascending branches of the Walker and Hadley circulation may be somewhat attributed to the cold (warm) bias over eastern (western) equatorial Indian Ocean basin, respectively in the model. This study will be useful for identifying some of the limitations of the CFS model and consequently it will be helpful in improving the model to unravel the realistic coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions

  8. The influence of ENSO on an oceanic eddy pair in the South China Sea (United States)

    Chu, Xiaoqing; Dong, Changming; Qi, Yiquan


    An eddy pair off the Vietnam coast is one of the most important features of the summertime South China Sea circulation. Its variability is of interest due to its profound impact on regional climate, ecosystems, biological processes, and fisheries. This study examines the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a basin-scale climatic mode, on the interannual variability of this regional eddy pair using satellite observational data and historical hydrographic measurements. Over the last three decades, the eddy pair strengthened in 1994 and 2002, and weakened in 2006, 2007, and 2008. It was absent in 1988, 1995, 1998, and 2010, coinciding with strong El Nino-to-La Nina transitions. Composite analyses showed that the strong transition events of ENSO led to radical changes in the summer monsoon, through the forcing of a unique sea surface temperature anomaly structure over the tropical Indo-Pacific basin. With weaker zonal wind, a more northward wind direction, and the disappearance of a pair of positive and negative wind stress curls, the eastward current jet turns northward along the Vietnam coast and the eddy pair disappears.

  9. Seasonal influence of ENSO on the Atlantic ITCZ and equatorial South America (United States)

    Münnich, M.; Neelin, J. D.


    In late boreal spring, especially May, a strong relationship exists in observations among precipitation anomalies over equatorial South America and the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and eastern equatorial Pacific and central equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). A chain of correlations of equatorial Pacific SSTA, western equatorial Atlantic wind stress (WEA), equatorial Atlantic SSTA, sea surface height, and precipitation supports a causal chain in which El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) induces WEA stress anomalies, which in turn affect Atlantic equatorial ocean dynamics. These correlations show strong seasonality, apparently arising within the atmospheric links of the chain. This pathway and the influence of equatorial Atlantic SSTA on South American rainfall in May appear independent of that of the northern tropical Atlantic. Brazil's Nordeste is affected by the northern tropical Atlantic. The equatorial influence lies further to the north over the eastern Amazon and the Guiana Highlands.

  10. Contribution of tropical instability waves to ENSO irregularity (United States)

    Holmes, Ryan M.; McGregor, Shayne; Santoso, Agus; England, Matthew H.


    Tropical instability waves (TIWs) are a major source of internally-generated oceanic variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These non-linear phenomena play an important role in the sea surface temperature (SST) budget in a region critical for low-frequency modes of variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the direct contribution of TIW-driven stochastic variability to ENSO has received little attention. Here, we investigate the influence of TIWs on ENSO using a 1/4° ocean model coupled to a simple atmosphere. The use of a simple atmosphere removes complex intrinsic atmospheric variability while allowing the dominant mode of air-sea coupling to be represented as a statistical relationship between SST and wind stress anomalies. Using this hybrid coupled model, we perform a suite of coupled ensemble forecast experiments initiated with wind bursts in the western Pacific, where individual ensemble members differ only due to internal oceanic variability. We find that TIWs can induce a spread in the forecast amplitude of the Niño 3 SST anomaly 6-months after a given sequence of WWBs of approximately ± 45% the size of the ensemble mean anomaly. Further, when various estimates of stochastic atmospheric forcing are added, oceanic internal variability is found to contribute between about 20% and 70% of the ensemble forecast spread, with the remainder attributable to the atmospheric variability. While the oceanic contribution to ENSO stochastic forcing requires further quantification beyond the idealized approach used here, our results nevertheless suggest that TIWs may impact ENSO irregularity and predictability. This has implications for ENSO representation in low-resolution coupled models.

  11. Where was ENSO strongest? (United States)

    Cane, M. A.; Chen, D.; Kaplan, A.


    Mark A. Cane, Dake Chen, Alexey Kaplan The description of this session begins: "Historical SST records suggest that for the past three decades, ENSO has been anomalously strong" and goes on to ask why. In this talk we dispute this interpretation of the historical record from within the historical record. In particular, we suggest that the most "anomalously strong" period in the historical ENSO record is the late nineteenth century. This claim requires a discussion of how we measure "ENSO strength". We also speculate on possible reasons for the strength of ENSO in this earlier period. Finally, we consult the models, and in reiteration of the collective conclusion of all speakers at this session, find that the riddles the models provide are inelegant and disobliging, lacking the cryptic wisdom of the classical oracles.

  12. ENSO variations and drought occurrence in Indonesia and the Philippines (United States)

    Harger, J. R. E.

    The "El Nino-Southern Oscillation" (ENSO) consists of a sympathetic movement involving the Pacific ocean and associated atmosphere in an essentially chaotic manner along the equator. The system oscillates between extremes of the so-called "warm events" usually lasting 1 or 2 yr and involving movement of warm sea water from the western Pacific along the equator to impact on the west coast of the American continent and "cold events" associated with easterly trade-wind-induced flows of colder water from the eastern Pacific towards the west. Information drawn from meteorological records in southeast Asia clearly indicates that each event is unique in terms of the signature which it imposes on the rainfall and temperature from location to location. Nevertheless, a strong underlying pattern within the context of each event, itself apparently initiated or molded by the character of the preceding years, can be detected. This pattern permits relatively circumscribed predictions of forward conditions (drought intensity) for 2-3 yr, to be made once the event "locks in" for the duration of the warm event and at least 1 yr beyond. The character of the intervening non-ENSO years can also be projected but in a more tenuous, though fairly regular manner. When the non-ENSO years leading up to a warm event are scored in terms of the extent to which they depart from the secular warming trend for the warmest month using data from Jakarta and Semarang on the north coast of Java, the cumulative temperature deviations signal the character of the upcoming ENSO event. This signal does not, however, allow an exact determination to be made with respect to whether or not an ENSO event will occur in the next year. For the available historical instrumental data, all markedly upward-moving traces eventually delivered a hot dry season in east Indonesia. This sort of tendency within non-ENSO blocks can thus serve as a caution in the sense that a very hot ENSO event is likely in the offing. The

  13. Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate*

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonfils, Céline J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. Most climate models project an increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño events under increased greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. However, it is unclear how other aspects of ENSO and ENSO-driven teleconnections will evolve in the future. Here, we identify in 20th century sea-surface temperature (SST) observations a time-invariant ENSO-like (ENSOL) pattern that is largely uncontaminated by GHG forcing. We use this pattern to investigate the future precipitation (P) response to ENSO-like SST anomalies. Models that better capture observed ENSOL characteristics produce P teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with observations and more stationary in the 21st century. We decompose the future P response to ENSOL into the sum of three terms: (1) the change in P mean state, (2) the historical P response to ENSOL, and (3) a future enhancement in the P response to ENSOL. In many regions, this last term can aggravate the P extremes associated with ENSO variability. This simple decomposition allows us to identify regions likely to experience ENSOL-induced P changes that are without precedent in the current climate.

  14. Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (United States)

    Organization Search Go Search the CPC Go Expert Assessments ENSO Diagnostic Discussion Archive About Us Our Assessments > ENSO Diagnostic Discussion El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion PDF : English Version Spanish Version Adobe PDF Reader (Click icon for Adobe PDF Reader) Word: English Version

  15. Trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections pose a correlated risk to global agriculture (United States)

    Anderson, W. B.; Seager, R.; Cane, M. A.; Baethgen, W.


    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of interannual climate variability, particularly in the Pacific Basin. ENSO life-cycles tend to evolve over multiple years, as do the associated trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections. This analysis, however, represents the first attempt to characterize the structure of the risk posed by ENSO to wheat, maize and soybean production across the Pacific Basin. Our results indicate that most ENSO teleconnections relevant for crop flowering seasons are the result of a single trans-Pacific circulation anomaly that develops in boreal summer and persists through the spring. During the late summer and early fall of a developing ENSO event, the tropical Pacific forces an atmospheric anomaly in the midlatitudes that spans the Pacific Basin. This teleconnection directly links the soybean and maize growing seasons of the US, Mexico and China. It also connects the wheat growing seasons of Argentina, southern Brazil and Australia. The ENSO event peaks in boreal winter, when the atmospheric circulation anomalies intensify and affect maize and soybeans in southeast South America. As the event decays, the ENSO-induced circulation anomalies persist through the wheat flowering seasons in China and the US. While the prospect of ENSO forcing simultaneous droughts in major food producing regions seems disastrous, there may be a silver lining from the perspective of global food security: trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections to yields are often offsetting between major producing regions in the eastern and western portions of the Pacific Basin. El Niños tend to create good maize and soybean growing conditions in the US and southeast South America, but poor growing conditions in China, Mexico and northeast Brazil. The opposite is true during La Niña. Wheat growing conditions in southeast South America generally have the opposite sign of those in Australia. Finally, we investigate how trade networks interact with this structure of ENSO

  16. ENSO influence on the interannual variability of the Red Sea convergence zone and associated rainfall

    KAUST Repository

    Dasari, Hari Prasad


    The Red Sea convergence zone (RSCZ) is formed by opposite surface winds blowing from northwest to southeast directions at around 18°-19°N between October and January. A reverse-oriented, low-level monsoon trough at 850hPa, known as the Red Sea trough (RST), transfers moisture from the southern Red Sea to RSCZ. The positions of the RSCZ and RST and the intensity of the RST have been identified as important factors in modulating weather and climatic conditions across the Middle East. Here, we investigate the influence of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of RSCZ, RST, and regional rainfall during winter months. Our results indicate that El Niño (warm ENSO phase) favours a shift of the RSCZ to the north and a strengthening of the RST in the same direction. Conversely, during November and December of La Niña periods (cold ENSO phase), the RSCZ shift to the south and the RST strengthens in the same direction. During El Niño periods, southeasterly wind speeds increase (20-30%) over the southern Red Sea and northwesterly wind speeds decrease (10-15%) over the northern Red Sea. Noticeable increases in the number of rainy days and the intensity of rain events are observed during El Niño phases. These increases are associated with colder than normal air intrusion at lower levels from the north combined with warm air intrusion from the south over the RSCZ. Our analysis suggests that during El Niño winters, warmer sea surface temperatures and higher convective instability over the Red Sea favour local storms conditions and increase rainfall over the Red Sea and adjoining regions.

  17. ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel


    We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks

  18. Understanding ENSO dynamics through the exploration of past climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phipps, Steven J; Brown, Jaclyn N


    The palaeoclimate record shows that significant changes in ENSO characteristics took place during the Holocene. Exploring these changes, using both data and models, provides a means of understanding ENSO dynamics. Previous modelling studies have suggested a mechanism whereby changes in the Earth's orbital geometry explain the strengthening of ENSO over the Holocene. Decreasing summer insolation over the Asian landmass resulted in a weakening of the Asian monsoon system. This led to a weakening of the easterly trade winds in the western Pacific, creating conditions more favourable for El Nino development. To explore this hypothesised forcing mechanism, we use a climate system model to conduct a suite of simulations of the climate of the past 8,000 years. In the early Holocene, we find that the Asian summer monsoon system is intensified, resulting in an amplification of the easterly trade winds in the western Pacific. The stronger trade winds represent a barrier to the eastward propagation of westerly wind bursts, therefore inhibiting the onset of El Nino events. The fundamental behaviour of ENSO remains unchanged, with the major change over the Holocene being the influence of the background state of the Pacific on the susceptibility of the ocean to the initiation of El Nino events.

  19. Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia (United States)

    Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun


    Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region

  20. Ocean Chlorophyll as a Precursor of ENSO: An Earth System Modeling Study (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Dunne, John P.; Stock, Charles A.


    Ocean chlorophyll concentration, a proxy for phytoplankton, is strongly influenced by internal ocean dynamics such as those associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Observations show that ocean chlorophyll responses to ENSO generally lead sea surface temperature (SST) responses in the equatorial Pacific. A long-term global Earth system model simulation incorporating marine biogeochemical processes also exhibits a preceding chlorophyll response. In contrast to simulated SST anomalies, which significantly lag the wind-driven subsurface heat response to ENSO, chlorophyll anomalies respond rapidly. Iron was found to be the key factor connecting the simulated surface chlorophyll anomalies to the subsurface ocean response. Westerly wind bursts decrease central Pacific chlorophyll by reducing iron supply through wind-driven thermocline deepening but increase western Pacific chlorophyll by enhancing the influx of coastal iron from the maritime continent. Our results mechanistically support the potential for chlorophyll-based indices to inform seasonal ENSO forecasts beyond previously identified SST-based indices.

  1. Reduced ENSO Variability at the LGM Revealed by an Isotope-Enabled Earth System Model (United States)

    Zhu, Jiang; Liu, Zhengyu; Brady, Esther; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Zhang, Jiaxu; Noone, David; Tomas, Robert; Nusbaumer, Jesse; Wong, Tony; Jahn, Alexandra; hide


    Studying the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the past can help us better understand its dynamics and improve its future projections. However, both paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations of ENSO strength at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka B.P.) have led to contradicting results. Here we perform model simulations using the recently developed water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM). For the first time, model-simulated oxygen isotopes are directly compared with those from ENSO reconstructions using the individual foraminifera analysis (IFA). We find that the LGM ENSO is most likely weaker comparing with the preindustrial. The iCESM suggests that total variance of the IFA records may only reflect changes in the annual cycle instead of ENSO variability as previously assumed. Furthermore, the interpretation of subsurface IFA records can be substantially complicated by the habitat depth of thermocline-dwelling foraminifera and their vertical migration with a temporally varying thermocline.

  2. Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall associated with ENSO and its Predictability (United States)

    Shin, C. S.; Huang, B.; Zhu, J.; Marx, L.; Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, J.


    The leading modes of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) rainfall variability and their seasonal predictability are investigated using the CFSv2 hindcasts initialized from multiple ocean analyses over the period of 1979-2008 and observation-based analyses. It is shown that the two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the observed ASM rainfall anomalies, which together account for about 34% of total variance, largely correspond to the ASM responses to the ENSO influences during the summers of the developing and decaying years of a Pacific anomalous event, respectively. These two ASM modes are then designated as the contemporary and delayed ENSO responses, respectively. It is demonstrated that the CFSv2 is capable of predicting these two dominant ASM modes up to the lead of 5 months. More importantly, the predictability of the ASM rainfall are much higher with respect to the delayed ENSO mode than the contemporary one, with the predicted principal component time series of the former maintaining high correlation skill and small ensemble spread with all lead months whereas the latter shows significant degradation in both measures with lead-time. A composite analysis for the ASM rainfall anomalies of all warm ENSO events in this period substantiates the finding that the ASM is more predictable following an ENSO event. The enhanced predictability mainly comes from the evolution of the warm SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean in the spring of the ENSO maturing phases and the persistence of the anomalous high sea surface pressure over the western Pacific in the subsequent summer, which the hindcasts are able to capture reasonably well. The results also show that the ensemble initialization with multiple ocean analyses improves the CFSv2's prediction skill of both ENSO and ASM rainfall. In fact, the skills of the ensemble mean hindcasts initialized from the four different ocean analyses are always equivalent to the best ones initialized from any individual ocean

  3. ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March-May U.S. tornado and hail activity (United States)

    Lepore, Chiara; Tippett, Michael K.; Allen, John T.


    Extended logistic regression is used to predict March-May severe convective storm (SCS) activity based on the preceding December-February (DJF) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. The spatially resolved probabilistic forecasts are verified against U.S. tornado counts, hail events, and two environmental indices for severe convection. The cross-validated skill is positive for roughly a quarter of the U.S. Overall, indices are predicted with more skill than are storm reports, and hail events are predicted with more skill than tornado counts. Skill is higher in the cool phase of ENSO (La Niña like) when overall SCS activity is higher. SCS forecasts based on the predicted DJF ENSO state from coupled dynamical models initialized in October of the previous year extend the lead time with only a modest reduction in skill compared to forecasts based on the observed DJF ENSO state.

  4. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Kucharski, Fred; Azharuddin, Syed


    impact over the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. ENSO-induced negative (positive) NAO-like response and associated changes over Southern Europe and North Africa get significantly strong following increased intensity of El Niño (La Niña) in the northern (southern) hemisphere in the boreal winter (summer) season. We further find that ENSO magnitude significantly impacts Hadley and Walker circulations. The positive phase of ENSO (El Niño) overall strengthens Hadley cell and a reverse is true for the La Niña phase. ENSO-induced strengthening and weakening of Hadley cell induces significant impact over South Asian and African ITCZ convective regions through modification of ITCZ/monsoon circulation system.

  5. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar


    impact over the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. ENSO-induced negative (positive) NAO-like response and associated changes over Southern Europe and North Africa get significantly strong following increased intensity of El Niño (La Niña) in the northern (southern) hemisphere in the boreal winter (summer) season. We further find that ENSO magnitude significantly impacts Hadley and Walker circulations. The positive phase of ENSO (El Niño) overall strengthens Hadley cell and a reverse is true for the La Niña phase. ENSO-induced strengthening and weakening of Hadley cell induces significant impact over South Asian and African ITCZ convective regions through modification of ITCZ/monsoon circulation system.

  6. Decadal Monsoon-ENSO Relationships Reexamined (United States)

    Yun, Kyung-Sook; Timmermann, Axel


    The strength of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) relationship shows considerable decadal fluctuations, which have been previously linked to low-frequency climatic processes such as shifts in ENSO's center of action or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. However, random variability can also cause similar variations in the relationship between climate phenomena. Here we propose a statistical test to determine whether the observed time-evolving correlations between ENSO and ISMR are different from those expected from a simple stochastic null hypothesis model. The analysis focuses on the time evolution of moving correlations, their expected variance, and probabilities for rapid transitions. The results indicate that the time evolution of the observed running correlation between these climate modes is indistinguishable from a system in which the ISMR signal can be expressed as a stochastically perturbed ENSO signal. This challenges previous deterministic interpretations. Our results are further corroborated by the analysis of climate model simulations.

  7. The ENSO-pandemic influenza connection: coincident or causal? (United States)

    Shaman, J. L.; Lipsitch, M.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific, which affects weather conditions, including temperatures, precipitation, winds and storm activity, across the planet. ENSO has two extreme phases marked by either warmer (El Niño) or cooler (La Niña) than average sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific. We find that the 4 most recent human influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, 2009), all of which were first identified in boreal spring or summer, were preceded by La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Changes in ENSO have been shown to alter the migration, stopover time, fitness and interspecies mixing of migratory birds, and consequently likely affect their mixing with domestic animals. We hypothesize that La Niña conditions bring divergent influenza subtypes together in some parts of the world and favor the reassortment of influenza through simultaneous multiple infection of individual hosts and the generation of novel pandemic strains. We propose approaches to test this hypothesis using influenza population genetics, virus prevalence in various host species, and avian migration patterns.


    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xiao-yan; ZHAI Pan-mao; REN Fu-min


    Through studying changes in ENSO indices relative to change of climate reference from 1961~1990 to 1971~2000, the study generated new standards to define ENSO episodes and their intensities. Then according to the new climate references and new index standards, ENSO episodes and their intensities for the period 1951 -2003 have been classified. Finally, an analysis has been performed comparing the new characteristics with the old ones for ENSO period, peak values and intensities.

  9. Interhemispheric temperature difference as a predictor of boreal winter ENSO (United States)

    Piskozub, Jacek; Gutowska, Dorota


    We use statistical analysis to show statistically significant relationship between the boreal winter MEI index of ENSO and HadCRUT3 temperature difference between Northern and Southern hemispheres (NH - SH) during the preceding summer. Correlation values increase (in absolute terms) if the correlated time periods are increased from month to seasonal length. For example December and January (DJ) MEI values anticorrelate stronger with the preceding MJJA period than with any of the four months taken separately. We believe this is further evidence that the correlation is caused by a real physical process as increase of the averaging period tends to reduce statistical noise. The motivation for looking for such a relationship comes from review of literature on paleoclimatic ENSO behavior. We have noticed that in many cases relatively cold NH coincided with "strong ENSO" (frequent El Niños), for example the Ice Age periods and Little Ice Age. On the other hand periods of relatively warm NH (the Holocene climate optimum or Medieval Climate Anomaly) are coincident with frequent or even "permanent" La Niñas. This relationship suggest the influence of the position of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) on the frequency of El Niños. The simplest physical mechanism of the relationship is that the positive (negative) NH-SH temperature difference causes a north (south) shift of ITCZ with a parallel shift of trade wind zones. The North-South orographic difference between the Panama Isthmus and the South America may cause stronger (weaker) trade winds in Eastern Tropical Pacific increasing (decreasing) the thermochemical tilt which, in turn, causes a more negative (positive) ENSO values. Of course this may be only a first approximation of the real mechanism of this "teleconnection". The correlations we have found are not strong even if statistically significant. For example, the MJJA NH-SH temperature vs. DJ MEI correlation has r = -0.28 implying it explains only 8% of boreal

  10. Uncertainty in the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks associated with ENSO in the reanalysis products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)


    The evolution of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability can be characterized by various ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, for example, the influence of ENSO related sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the low-level wind and surface heat fluxes in the equatorial tropical Pacific, which in turn affects the evolution of the SST. An analysis of these feedbacks requires physically consistent observational data sets. Availability of various reanalysis data sets produced during the last 15 years provides such an opportunity. A consolidated estimate of ocean surface fluxes based on multiple reanalyses also helps understand biases in ENSO predictions and simulations from climate models. In this paper, the intensity and the spatial structure of ocean-atmosphere feedback terms (precipitation, surface wind stress, and ocean surface heat flux) associated with ENSO are evaluated for six different reanalysis products. The analysis provides an estimate for the feedback terms that could be used for model validation studies. The analysis includes the robustness of the estimate across different reanalyses. Results show that one of the ''coupled'' reanalysis among the six investigated is closer to the ensemble mean of the results, suggesting that the coupled data assimilation may have the potential to better capture the overall atmosphere-ocean feedback processes associated with ENSO than the uncoupled ones. (orig.)

  11. Possible influence of the ENSO phenomenon on the pathoecology of diphyllobothriasis and anisakiasis in ancient Chinchorro populations

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    Bernardo T Arriaza


    Full Text Available Current clinical data show a clear relationship between the zoonosis rates of Diphyllobothrium pacificum and Anisakis caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO phenomenon along the Chilean coast. These parasites are endemic to the region and have a specific habitat distribution. D. pacificum prefers the warmer waters in the northern coast, while Anisakis prefers the colder waters of Southern Chile. The ENSO phenomenon causes a drastic inversion in the seawater temperatures in this region, modifying both the cool nutrient-rich seawater and the local ecology. This causes a latitudinal shift in marine parasite distribution and prevalence, as well as drastic environmental changes. The abundance of human mummies and archaeological coastal sites in the Atacama Desert provides an excellent model to test the ENSO impact on antiquity. We review the clinical and archaeological literature debating to what extent these parasites affected the health of the Chinchorros, the earliest settlers of this region. We hypothesise the Chinchorro and their descendants were affected by this natural and cyclical ENSO phenomenon and should therefore present fluctuating rates of D. pacificum and Anisakis infestations.

  12. Atmosphere-Ocean Variations in the Indo-Pacific Sector during ENSO Episodes. (United States)

    Lau, Ngar-Cheung; Nath, Mary Jo


    The influences of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on air-sea interaction in the Indian-western Pacific (IWP) Oceans have been investigated using a general circulation model. Observed monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the deep tropical eastern/central Pacific (DTEP) have been inserted in the lower boundary of this model through the 1950-99 period. At all maritime grid points outside of DTEP, the model atmosphere has been coupled with an oceanic mixed layer model with variable depth. Altogether 16 independent model runs have been conducted.Composite analysis of selected ENSO episodes illustrates that the prescribed SST anomalies in DTEP affect the surface atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns in IWP through displacements of the near-equatorial Walker circulation and generation of Rossby wave modes in the subtropics. Such atmospheric responses modulate the surface fluxes as well as the oceanic mixed layer depth, and thereby establish a well-defined SST anomaly pattern in the IWP sector several months after the peak in ENSO forcing in DTEP. In most parts of the IWP region, the net SST tendency induced by atmospheric changes has the same polarity as the local composite SST anomaly, thus indicating that the atmospheric forcing acts to reinforce the underlying SST signal.By analyzing the output from a suite of auxiliary experiments, it is demonstrated that the SST perturbations in IWP (which are primarily generated by ENSO-related atmospheric changes) can, in turn, exert notable influences on the atmospheric conditions over that region. This feedback mechanism also plays an important role in the eastward migration of the subtropical anticyclones over the western Pacific in both hemispheres.

  13. Salinity anomaly as a trigger for ENSO events. (United States)

    Zhu, Jieshun; Huang, Bohua; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Balmaseda, Magdalena A; Marx, Lawrence; Kinter, James L


    According to the classical theories of ENSO, subsurface anomalies in ocean thermal structure are precursors for ENSO events and their initial specification is essential for skillful ENSO forecast. Although ocean salinity in the tropical Pacific (particularly in the western Pacific warm pool) can vary in response to El Niño events, its effect on ENSO evolution and forecasts of ENSO has been less explored. Here we present evidence that, in addition to the passive response, salinity variability may also play an active role in ENSO evolution, and thus important in forecasting El Niño events. By comparing two forecast experiments in which the interannually variability of salinity in the ocean initial states is either included or excluded, the salinity variability is shown to be essential to correctly forecast the 2007/08 La Niña starting from April 2007. With realistic salinity initial states, the tendency to decay of the subsurface cold condition during the spring and early summer 2007 was interrupted by positive salinity anomalies in the upper central Pacific, which working together with the Bjerknes positive feedback, contributed to the development of the La Niña event. Our study suggests that ENSO forecasts will benefit from more accurate salinity observations with large-scale spatial coverage.

  14. Human influence on distribution and extinctions of the late Pleistocene Eurasian megafauna. (United States)

    Pushkina, Diana; Raia, Pasquale


    Late Pleistocene extinctions are of interest to paleontological and anthropological research. In North America and Australia, human occupation occurred during a short period of time and overexploitation may have led to the extinction of mammalian megafauna. In northern Eurasia megafaunal extinctions are believed to have occurred over a relatively longer period of time, perhaps as a result of changing environmental conditions, but the picture is much less clear. To consider megafaunal extinction in Eurasia, we compare differences in the geographical distribution and commonness of extinct and extant species between paleontological and archaeological localities from the late middle Pleistocene to Holocene. Purely paleontological localities, as well as most extinct species, were distributed north of archaeological sites and of the extant species, suggesting that apart from possible differences in adaptations between humans and other species, humans could also have a detrimental effect on large mammal distribution. However, evidence for human overexploitation applies only to the extinct steppe bison Bison priscus. Other human-preferred species survive into the Holocene, including Rangifer tarandus, Equus ferus, Capreolus capreolus, Cervus elaphus, Equus hemionus, Saiga tatarica, and Sus scrofa. Mammuthus primigenius and Megaloceros giganteus were rare in archaeological sites. Carnivores appear little influenced by human presence, although they become rarer in Holocene archaeological sites. Overall, the data are consistent with the conclusion that humans acted as efficient hunters selecting for the most abundant species. Our study supports the idea that the late Pleistocene extinctions were environmentally driven by climatic changes that triggered habitat fragmentation, species range reduction, and population decrease, after which human interference either by direct hunting or via indirect activities probably became critical.

  15. Precipitation response to the current ENSO variability in a warming world (United States)

    Bonfils, C.; Santer, B. D.; Phillips, T. J.; Marvel, K.; Leung, L.


    The major triggers of past and recent droughts include large modes of variability, such as ENSO, as well as specific and persistent patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs; Hoerling and Kumar, 2003, Shin et al. 2010, Schubert et al. 2009). However, alternative drought initiators are also anticipated in response to increasing greenhouse gases, potentially changing the relative contribution of ocean variability as drought initiator. They include the intensification of the current zonal wet-dry patterns (the thermodynamic mechanism, Held and Soden, 2006), a latitudinal redistribution of global precipitation (the dynamical mechanism, Seager et al. 2007, Seidel et al. 2008, Scheff and Frierson 2008) and a reduction of local soil moisture and precipitation recycling (the land-atmosphere argument). Our ultimate goal is to investigate whether the relative contribution of those mechanisms change over time in response to global warming. In this study, we first perform an EOF analysis of the 1900-1999 time series of observed global SST field and identify a simple ENSO-like (ENSOL) mode of SST variability. We show that this mode is well spatially and temporally correlated with observed worldwide regional precipitation and drought variability. We then develop concise metrics to examine the fidelity with which the CMIP5 coupled global climate models (CGCMs) capture this particular ENSO-like mode in the current climate, and their ability to replicate the observed teleconnections with precipitation. Based on the CMIP5 model projections of future climate change, we finally analyze the potential temporal variations in ENSOL to be anticipated under further global warming, as well as their associated teleconnections with precipitation (pattern, amplitude, and total response). Overall, our approach allows us to determine what will be the effect of the current ENSO-like variability (i.e., as measured with instrumental observations) on precipitation in a warming world. This

  16. Mechanism of ENSO influence on the South Asian monsoon rainfall in global model simulations (United States)

    Joshi, Sneh; Kar, Sarat C.


    Coupled ocean atmosphere global climate models are increasingly being used for seasonal scale simulation of the South Asian monsoon. In these models, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolve as coupled air-sea interaction process. However, sensitivity experiments with various SST forcing can only be done in an atmosphere-only model. In this study, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution has been used to examine the mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing on the monsoon circulation and rainfall. The model has been integrated (ensemble) with observed, climatological and ENSO SST forcing to document the mechanism on how the South Asian monsoon responds to basin-wide SST variations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The model simulations indicate that the internal variability gets modulated by the SSTs with warming in the Pacific enhancing the ensemble spread over the monsoon region as compared to cooling conditions. Anomalous easterly wind anomalies cover the Indian region both at 850 and 200 hPa levels during El Niño years. The locations and intensity of Walker and Hadley circulations are altered due to ENSO SST forcing. These lead to reduction of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India during El Niño events compared to La Niña conditions. However, internally generated variability is a major source of uncertainty in the model-simulated climate.

  17. Climate Prediction Center - The ENSO Cycle (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > El Niño/La Niña > The ENSO Cycle ENSO Cycle Banner Climate for Weather and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College

  18. Future changes in rainfall associated with ENSO, IOD and changes in the mean state over Eastern Africa (United States)

    Endris, Hussen Seid; Lennard, Christopher; Hewitson, Bruce; Dosio, Alessandro; Nikulin, Grigory; Artan, Guleid A.


    This study examines the projected changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in terms of mean state, intensity and frequency, and associated rainfall anomalies over eastern Africa. Two regional climate models driven by the same four global climate models (GCMs) and the corresponding GCM simulations are used to investigate projected changes in teleconnection patterns and East African rainfall. The period 1976-2005 is taken as the reference for present climate and the far-future climate (2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) is analyzed for projected change. Analyses of projections based on GCMs indicate an El Niño-like (positive IOD-like) warming pattern over the tropical Pacific (Indian) Ocean. However, large uncertainties remain in the projected future changes in ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity with some GCMs show increase of ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity, and others a decrease or no/small change. Projected changes in mean rainfall over eastern Africa based on the GCM and RCM data indicate a decrease in rainfall over most parts of the region during JJAS and MAM seasons, and an increase in rainfall over equatorial and southern part of the region during OND, with the greatest changes in equatorial region. During ENSO and IOD years, important changes in the strength of the teleconnections are found. During JJAS, when ENSO is an important driver of rainfall variability over the region, both GCM and RCM projections show an enhanced La Niña-related rainfall anomaly compared to the present period. Although the long rains (MAM) have little association with ENSO in the reference period, both GCMs and RCMs project stronger ENSO teleconnections in the future. On the other hand, during the short rains (OND), a dipole future change in rainfall teleconnection associated with ENSO and IOD is found, with a stronger ENSO/IOD related rainfall anomaly over the eastern part of the domain

  19. Variation characteristics and influences of climate factors on aridity index and its association with AO and ENSO in northern China from 1961 to 2012 (United States)

    Zhang, Kexin; Qian, Xiaoqing; Liu, Puxing; Xu, Yihong; Cao, Liguo; Hao, Yongpei; Dai, Shengpei


    Analyses of the variation characteristics for aridity index (AI) can further enhance the understanding of climate change and have effect on hydrology and agriculture. In this paper, based on the data of 283 standard meteorological stations, the temporal-spatial variations and the influences of climate factors on AI were investigated and the relationship between AI and two climate indices (the Arctic Oscillation (AO); El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) were also assessed in northern China (NC) during the period from 1961 to 2012. The results revealed that the annual mean AI decreased at the rate of -0.031 per decade in the past 52 years and the trend was statistically significant at the 0.01 level. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test presented that the percentages of stations with positive trends and negative trends for AI were 10 and 81.9 % (22.6 % statistically significant), respectively. Spatially, in the western part of 100° E, the extremely dry area declined and the climate tended to become wet obviously. In the eastern part of 100° E, dry area moved toward the east and the south, which resulted in the enhancement of semiarid area and the shrinkage of subhumid area. The contributions of sunshine duration and precipitation to the decline of AI are more than those of other meteorological variables in NC. Moreover, the average temperature has risen significantly and AI decreased in NC, which indicated the existence of "paradox." Relationship between climate indices (AO and ENSO) and AI demonstrated that the influence of ENSO on AI overweight the AO on AI in NC.

  20. An Ensemble Approach to Understanding the ENSO Response to Climate Change (United States)

    Stevenson, S.; Capotondi, A.; Fasullo, J.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.


    The dynamics of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to be sensitive to changes in background climate conditions, as well as atmosphere/ocean feedbacks. However, the degree to which shifts in ENSO characteristics can be robustly attributed to external climate forcings remains unknown. Efforts to assess these changes in a multi-model framework are subject to uncertainties due to both differing model physics and internal ENSO variability. New community ensembles created at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory are ideally suited to addressing this problem, providing many realizations of the climate of the 850-2100 period with a combination of both natural and anthropogenic climate forcing factors. Here we analyze the impacts of external forcing on El Nino and La Nina evolution using four sets of simulations: the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME), which covers the 850-2005 period and provides long-term context for forced responses; the Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), which includes 20th century and 21st century (RCP8.5) projections; the Medium Ensemble (CESM-ME), which is composed of 21st century RCP4.5 projections; and a large ensemble with the GFDL ESM2M, which includes 20th century and RCP8.5 projections. In the CESM, ENSO variance increases slightly over the 20th century in all ensembles, with the effects becoming much larger during the 21st. The slower increase in variance over the 20th century is shown to arise from compensating influences from greenhouse gas (GHG) and anthropogenic aerosol emissions, which give way to GHG-dominated effects by 2100. However, the 21st century variance increase is not robust: CESM and the ESM2M differ drastically in their ENSO projections. The mechanisms for these inter-model differences are discussed, as are the implications for the design of future multi-model ENSO projection experiments.

  1. Linkages between ENSO/PDO signals and precipitation, streamflow in China during the last 100 years (United States)

    Ouyang, R.; Liu, W.; Fu, G.; Liu, C.; Hu, L.; Wang, H.


    This paper investigates the single and combined impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on precipitation and streamflow in China over the last century. Results indicate that the precipitation and streamflow overall decrease during El Niño/PDO warm phase periods and increase during La Niña/PDO cool phase periods in the majority of China, although there are regional and seasonal differences. Precipitation and streamflow in the Yellow River basin, Yangtze River basin and Pearl River basin are more significantly influenced by El Niño and La Niña events than is precipitation and streamflow in the Songhua River basin, especially in October and November. Moreover, significant influence of ENSO on streamflow in the Yangtze River mainly occurs in summer and autumn while in the Pearl River influence primarily occurs in the winter and spring. The precipitation and streamflow are relatively greater in the warm PDO phase in the Songhua River basin and several parts of the Yellow River basin and relatively less in the Pearl River basin and most parts of Northwest China compared to those in the cool PDO phase, though there is little significance detected by Wilcoxon signed-rank test. When considering the combined influence of ENSO and PDO, the responses of precipitation/streamflow are shown to be opposite in northern China and southern China, with ENSO-related precipitation/streamflow enhanced in northern China and decreased in southern China during the warm PDO phases, and enhanced in southern China and decreased in northern China during the cool PDO phases. It is hoped that this study will be beneficial for understanding the precipitation/streamflow responses to the changing climate and will correspondingly provide valuable reference for water resources prediction and management across China.

  2. Pleistocene Palaeoart of the Americas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert G. Bednarik


    Full Text Available In contrast to the great time depth of Pleistocene rock art and mobiliary ‘art’ in the four other continents, the available evidence from the Americas is very limited, and restricted at best to the last part of the final Pleistocene. A review of what has so far become available is hampered by a considerable burden of literature presenting material contended to be of the Ice Age, even of the Mesozoic in some cases, that needs to be sifted through to find a minute number of credible claims. Even the timing of the first colonization of the Americas remains unresolved, and the lack of clear-cut substantiation of palaeoart finds predating about 12,000 years bp is conspicuous. There are vague hints of earlier human presence, rendering it likely that archaeology has failed to define its manifestations adequately, and Pleistocene palaeoart remains almost unexplored at this stage.

  3. Impact of global warming on ENSO phase change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Cabos Narvaez


    Full Text Available We compare the physical mechanisms involved in the generation and decay of ENSO events in a control (present day conditions and Scenario (Is92a, IPCC 1996 simulations performed with the coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM ECHAM4-OPYC3. A clustering technique which objectively discriminates common features in the evolution of the Tropical Pacific Heat Content anomalies leading to the peak of ENSO events allows us to group into a few classes the ENSO events occurring in 240 years of data in the control and scenario runs. In both simulations, the composites of the groups show differences in the generation and development of ENSO. We present the changes in the statistics of the groups and explore the possible mechanisms involved.

  4. Equatorial Precession Drove Mid-Latitude Changes in ENSO-Scale Variation in the Earliest Miocene (United States)

    Fox, B.; D'Andrea, W. J.; Lee, D. E.; Wilson, G. S.


    Foulden Maar is an annually laminated lacustrine diatomite deposit from the South Island of New Zealand. The deposit was laid down over ~100 kyr of the latest Oligocene and earliest Miocene, during the peak and deglaciation phase of the Mi-1 Antarctic glaciation event. At this time, New Zealand was located at approximately the same latitude as today (~45°S). Evidence from organic geochemical proxies (δD, δ13C) and physical properties (density, colour) indicates the presence of an 11-kyr cycle at the site. Although it is known that 11-kyr insolation (half-precession) cycles occur between the Tropics, this cycle is rarely seen in sedimentary archives deposited outside the immediate vicinity of the Equator. Records from Foulden Maar correlate well with the amplitude and phase of the modelled equatorial half-precession cycle for the earliest Miocene. High-resolution (50 µm) colour intensity measurements and lamina thickness measurements both indicate the presence of significant ENSO-like (2-8 year) variation in the Foulden Maar sediments. Early results from targeted lamina thickness measurements suggest that ENSO-band variation is modulated by the 11-kyr cycle, with power in the ENSO band increasing during periods of increased insolation at the Equator. This implies that equatorial half-precession had a significant effect on ENSO-like variation in the early Miocene, and that this effect was felt as far afield as the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere.

  5. The ENSO Impact on Predicting World Cocoa Prices


    Ubilava, David; Helmers, Claes Gustav


    Cocoa beans are produced in equatorial and sub-equatorial regions of West Africa, Southeast Asia and South America. These are also the regions most affected by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) -- a climatic anomaly affecting temperature and precipitation in many parts of the world. Thus, ENSO, has a potential of affecting cocoa production and, subsequently, prices on the world market. This study investigates the benefits of using a measure of ENSO variable in world cocoa price forecasting ...

  6. Reforecasting the ENSO Events in the Past Fifty-Seven Years (1958-2014) (United States)

    Huang, B.; Shin, C. S.; Shukla, J.; Marx, L.; Balmaseda, M.; Halder, S.; Dirmeyer, P.; Kinter, J. L.


    anomalies in strong El Niño events. Both facts imply that the model air-sea feedback is overly active in the eastern Pacific before ENSO termination, likely induced by the model warm bias in the eastern Pacific during boreal winter and spring.

  7. Tree Carbohydrate Dynamics Across a Rainfall Gradient in Panama During the 2016 ENSO (United States)

    Dickman, L. T.; Xu, C.; Behar, H.; McDowell, N.


    Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) provide a measure of the carbon supply available to support respiration, growth, and defense. Support for a role of carbon starvation - or depletion of NSC stores - in drought induced tree mortality is varied without consensus for the tropics. The 2016 ENSO drought provided a unique opportunity to capture drought impacts on tropical forest carbohydrate dynamics. To quantify these impacts, we collected monthly NSC samples across a rainfall gradient in Panama for the duration of the ENSO. We observed high variability in foliar NSC among species within sites. Foliage contained very little starch, indicating that total NSC dynamics are driven by soluble sugars. Foliar NSC depletion did not progress with drought duration as predicted, but showed little variation over course of the ENSO. Foliar NSC did, however, increase with rainfall, suggesting NSC depletion may occur with longer-term drought. These results suggest that, while short-term droughts like the 2016 ENSO may not have a significant impact on carbon dynamics, we may observe greater impacts as drought progresses over longer timescales. These results will be used to evaluate whether the current implementation of carbon starvation in climate models are capturing observed trends in tropical forest carbon allocation and mortality, and to tune model parameters for improved predictive capability.

  8. Pleistocene aridification cycles shaped the contemporary genetic architecture of Southern African baboons.

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    Riashna Sithaldeen

    Full Text Available Plio-Pleistocene environmental change influenced the evolutionary history of many animal lineages in Africa, highlighting key roles for both climate and tectonics in the evolution of Africa's faunal diversity. Here, we explore diversification in the southern African chacma baboon Papio ursinus sensu lato and reveal a dominant role for increasingly arid landscapes during past glacial cycles in shaping contemporary genetic structure. Recent work on baboons (Papio spp. supports complex lineage structuring with a dominant pulse of diversification occurring 1-2Ma, and yet the link to palaeoenvironmental change remains largely untested. Phylogeographic reconstruction based on mitochondrial DNA sequence data supports a scenario where chacma baboon populations were likely restricted to refugia during periods of regional cooling and drying through the Late Pleistocene. The two lineages of chacma baboon, ursinus and griseipes, are strongly geographically structured, and demographic reconstruction together with spatial analysis of genetic variation point to possible climate-driven isolating events where baboons may have retreated to more optimum conditions during cooler, drier periods. Our analysis highlights a period of continuous population growth beginning in the Middle to Late Pleistocene in both the ursinus and the PG2 griseipes lineages. All three clades identified in the study then enter a state of declining population size (Nef through to the Holocene; this is particularly marked in the last 20,000 years, most likely coincident with the Last Glacial Maximum. The pattern recovered here conforms to expectations based on the dynamic regional climate trends in southern Africa through the Pleistocene and provides further support for complex patterns of diversification in the region's biodiversity.

  9. The multidecadal variations of the interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and ENSO in a coupled model (United States)

    Liu, Bo; Huang, Gang; Hu, Kaiming; Wu, Renguang; Gong, Hainan; Wang, Pengfei; Zhao, Guijie


    This study investigates the multidecadal variations of the interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1000-year simulation of a coupled climate model. The interannual relationship between ENSO and EASM has experienced pronounced changes throughout the 1000-year simulation. During the periods with significant ENSO-EASM relationship, the ENSO-related circulation anomalies show a Pacific-Japan (PJ)-like pattern with significant wave-activity flux propagating from the tropics to the north in lower troposphere and from the mid-latitudes to the south in upper troposphere. The resultant ENSO-related precipitation anomalies are more (less) than normal over the East Asia (western North Pacific) in the decaying summers of El Niño events. In contrast, the circulation and precipitation anomalies are weak over East Asia-western North Pacific during the periods with weak ENSO-EASM relationship. Based on the energy conversion analysis, the related anomalies achieve barotropic and baroclinic energy from the mean flow during the periods with strong ENSO-EASM relationship. On the contrary, during the low-correlation periods, the energy conversion is too weak to form the link between the tropics and mid-latitudes. The main reason for the multidecadal variations of ENSO-EASM relationship is the amplitude discrepancy of SST anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific Ocean which, in turn, leads to the intensity difference of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WPAC) and related climate anomalies.

  10. The interdecadal changes of south pacific sea surface temperature in the mid-1990s and their connections with ENSO (United States)

    Li, Gang; Li, Chongyin; Tan, Yanke; Bai, Tao


    The characteristic changes of South Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) for the period January 1979 to December 2011, during which the 1990s Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV) interdecadal regime shifts occurred, were examined. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis was applied to the monthly mean SSTA for two sub-periods: January 1979 to December 1994 (P1) and January 1996 to December 2011 (P2). Both the spatial and temporal features of the leading EOF mode for P1 and P2 showed a remarkable difference. The spatial structure of the leading EOF changed from a tripolar pattern for P1 (EOF-P1) to a dipole-like pattern for P2 (EOF-P2). Besides, EOF-P1 (EOF-P2) had significant spectral peaks at 4.6 yr (2.7 yr). EOF-P2 not only had a closer association with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but also showed a faster response to ENSO than EOF-P1 based on their lead-lag relationships with ENSO. During the development of ENSO, the South Pacific SSTA associated with ENSO for both P1 and P2 showed a significant eastward propagation. However, after the peak of ENSO, EOF-P1 showed a stronger persistence than EOF-P2, which still showed eastward propagation. The variability of the SSTA associated with the whole process of ENSO evolution during P1 and the SSTA associated with the development of ENSO during P2 support the existence of ocean-to-atmosphere forcing, but the SSTA associated with the decay of ENSO shows the phenomenon of atmosphere-to-ocean forcing.

  11. Asymptotic solving method for sea-air coupled oscillator ENSO model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Xian-Chun; Yao Jing-Sun; Mo Jia-Qi


    The ENSO is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interaction. In this article, we create an asymptotic solving method for the nonlinear system of the ENSO model. The asymptotic solution is obtained. And then we can furnish weather forecasts theoretically and other behaviors and rules for the atmosphere-ocean oscillator of the ENSO. (general)

  12. Influences of the ENSO, oscillation Madden-Julian, waves of the east, hurricanes and moon phases on the diurnal cycle of precipitation at the tropical Andes of Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poveda, German; Mesa, Oscar; Agudelo, Paula; Alvarez, Juan; Arias, Paola; Moreno, Hernan; Salazar, Luis; Toro, Vladimir; Vieira, Sara


    We study the effects of large-scale ocean-atmospheric, astronomic phenomena on the diurnal cycle of precipitation at the tropical Andes of Colombia. Such phenomena include both phases of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely El Nino and La Nina, the intra seasonal Madden-Julian oscillation, tropical easterly waves (4-8 days), moon phases and hurricanes over the Atlantic and eastern pacific oceans. We found a clear-cut effect of both ENSO phases: El Nino is associated with a diminished rainfall diurnal cycle, and La Nina intensifies it. Thus, ENSO modulates precipitation in Colombia at timescales ranging from hours to decades. We identified a close association with different phases of the Madden-Julian oscillation, as the diurnal cycle is intensified (larger amplitude) during its westerly phase, but it gets decreased during its easterly phase. For both ENSO and the Madden-Julian oscillation we identified a clear-cut influence on the amplitude of the diurnal cycle, yet the phase is conserved for the most part. Tropical easterly waves appear to affect the diurnal cycle, but no clear overall signal is pervasive throughout the region. We al so found a significant statistical association with hurricanes occurring over the northeastern pacific ocean with the diurnal cycle of precipitation at rain gages located over the eastern slope of the eastern range of the Colombian Andes. Rainfall at all the remaining slopes of the Andes is statistically associated with hurricanes occurring at the tropical north Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. Moon phases are not statistically associated with the diurnal cycle and daily total rainfall

  13. Tree-ring analysis of winter climate variability and ENSO in Mediterranean California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodhouse, C.A.; Univ. of Colorado, Boulder


    The feasibility of using tree-ring data as a proxy for regional precipitation and ENSO events in the Mediterranean region of California is explored. A transect of moisture-sensitive tree-ring sites, extending from southwestern to north-central California, documents regional patterns of winter precipitation and replicates the regional response to ENSO events in the 20. century. Proxy records of ENSO were used with the tree-ring data to examine precipitation/ENSO patterns in the 18. and 19. centuries. Results suggest some temporal and spatial variability in the regional precipitation response to ENSO over the last three centuries

  14. El ciclo anual de la hidrología de Colombia en relación con el ENSO y la NAO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available INFLUENCE DE L’ENSO ET DE LA NAO SUR LE CYCLE ANNUEL DE L’HYDROLOGIE DE COLOMBIE. On évalue l’impact de El Niño-Oscillation du Sud (ENSO et de l’Oscillation de l’Atlantique Nord (NAO sur le cycle annuel hydrologique colombien. Les résultats du Projet de Réanalyse Climatologique NCEP/NCAR ont été utilisés pour identifier les mécanismes de la circulation atmosphérique qui interviennent dans cette région au cours des phases extrêmes de l’ENSO. En particulier, l’affaiblissement du courant jet inférieur d’ouest, qui se propage du Pacifique vers l’intérieur de la Colombie, est l’un des principaux mécanismes de circulation susceptible de nous aider à expliquer les anomalies hydrologiques en situation El Niño. Les résultats confirment l’importance de l’influence de l’ENSO et de la NAO sur les précipitations et les débits de Colombie, en particulier au cours des trimestres de septembre-octobre-novembre et de décembre-janvier-février. Se cuantifica la dependencia del ciclo anual de la hidroclimatología de Colombia con respecto del fenómeno El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENSO y la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO. Se usan los resultados del Proyecto de Reanálisis Climático de NCEP/NCAR para identificar los mecanismos de la circulación involucrados en las anomalías climáticas en la región de Suramérica tropical durante las fases extremas del ENSO (El Niño y La Niña. De particular importancia, el debilitamiento, durante El Niño, de la corriente de chorro superficial del oeste que penetra desde el Océano Pacífico hacia el interior de Colombia es un mecanismo de la circulación que coadyuva para explicar las anomalías hidrológicas. Los resultados confirman la fuerte influencia del ENSO y la NAO sobre las lluvias y los caudales de Colombia, en particular durante los trimestres septiembre-octubre-noviembre y diciembre-enero-febrero. THE ANNUAL CYCLE OF THE HYDROLOGY IN COLOMBIA IN RELATION TO THE ENSO AND NAO

  15. Forest Understory Fire in the Brazilian Amazon in ENSO and Non-ENSO Years: Area Burned and Committed Carbon Emissions (United States)

    Alencar, A.; Nepstad, D.; Ver-Diaz, M. Del. C.


    "Understory fires" that burn the floor of standing forests are one of the most important types of forest impoverishment in the Amazon, especially during the severe droughts of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes. However, we are aware of no estimates of the areal extent of these fires for the Brazilian Amazon and, hence, of their contribution to Amazon carbon fluxes to the atmosphere. We calculated the area of forest understory fires for the Brazilian Amazon region during an El Nino (1998) and a non El Nino (1995) year based on forest fire scars mapped with satellite images for three locations in eastern and southern Amazon, where deforestation is concentrated. The three study sites represented a gradient of both forest types and dry season severity. The burning scar maps were used to determine how the percentage of forest that burned varied with distance from agricultural clearings. These spatial functions were then applied to similar forest/climate combinations outside of the study sites to derive an initial estimate for the Brazilian Amazon. Ninety-one percent of the forest area that burned in the study sites was within the first kilometer of a clearing for the non ENSO year and within the first four kilometers for the ENSO year. The area of forest burned by understory forest fire during the severe drought (ENSO) year (3.9 millions of hectares) was 13 times greater than the area burned during the average rainfall year (0.2 million hectares), and twice the area of annual deforestation rate. Dense forest was, proportionally, the forest area most affected by understory fires during the El Nino year, while understory fires were concentrated in transitional forests during the year of average rainfall. Our estimate of aboveground tree biomass killed by fire ranged from 0.06 Pg to 0.38 Pg during the ENSO and from 0,004 Pg to 0,024 Pg during the non ENSO.

  16. Zonally resolved impact of ENSO on the stratospheric circulation and water vapor entry values (United States)

    Konopka, Paul; Ploeger, Felix; Tao, Mengchu; Riese, Martin


    Based on simulations with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) for the period 1979-2013, with model transport driven by the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis, we discuss the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the variability of the dynamics, water vapor, ozone, and mean age of air (AoA) in the tropical lower stratosphere during boreal winter. Our zonally resolved analysis at the 390 K potential temperature level reveals that not only (deseasonalized) ENSO-related temperature anomalies are confined to the tropical Pacific (180-300°E) but also anomalous wave propagation and breaking, as quantified in terms of the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux divergence, with strongest local contribution during the La Niña phase. This anomaly is coherent with respective anomalies of water vapor (±0.5 ppmv) and ozone (±100 ppbv) derived from CLaMS being in excellent agreement with the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations. Thus, during El Niño a more zonally symmetric wave forcing drives a deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson (BD) circulation. During La Niña this forcing increases at lower levels (≈390 K) over the tropical Pacific, likely influencing the shallow branch of the BD circulation. In agreement with previous studies, wet (dry) and young (old) tape recorder anomalies propagate upward in the subsequent months following El Niño (La Niña). Using CLaMS, these anomalies are found to be around +0.3 (-0.2) ppmv and -4 (+4) months for water vapor and AoA, respectively. The AoA ENSO anomaly is more strongly affected by the residual circulation (≈2/3) than by eddy mixing (≈1/3).

  17. An exploratory modeling study on bio-physical processes associated with ENSO (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Park, Young-Gyu


    Variability of marine phytoplankton associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and potential biological feedbacks onto ENSO are investigated by performing coupled ocean/biogeochemical model experiments forced by realistic surface winds from 1951 to 2010. The ocean model used in this study is the MOM4, which is coupled to a biogeochemical model, called TOPAZ (Tracers in the Ocean with Allometric Zooplankton). In general, it is shown that MOM4-TOPAZ mimics the observed main features of phytoplankton variability associated with ENSO. By comparing the actively coupled MOM4-TOPAZ experiment with the ocean model experiments using prescribed chlorophyll concentrations, potential impacts of phytoplankton on ENSO are evaluated. We found that chlorophyll generally increases mean sea surface temperature (SST) and decreases subsurface temperature by altering the penetration of solar radiation. However, as the chlorophyll concentration increases, the equatorial Pacific SST decreases due to the enhanced upwelling of the cooler subsurface water with shoaling of mixed layer and thermocline. The presence of chlorophyll generally intensifies ENSO amplitude by changing the ocean basic state. On the other hand, interactively varying chlorophyll associated with the ENSO tends to reduce ENSO amplitude. Therefore, the two biological effects on SST are competing against each other regarding the SST variance in the equatorial Pacific.

  18. Changes in Sea Salt Emissions Enhance ENSO Variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Yang; Russell, Lynn M.; Lou, Sijia; Lamjiri, Maryam A.; Liu, Ying; Singh, Balwinder; Ghan, Steven J.


    Two 150-year pre-industrial simulations with and without interactive sea salt emissions from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are performed to quantify the interactions between sea salt emissions and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Variations in sea salt emissions over the tropical Pacific Ocean are affected by changing wind speed associated with ENSO variability. ENSO-induced interannual variations in sea salt emissions result in decreasing (increasing) aerosol optical depth (AOD) by 0.03 over the equatorial central-eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño events compared to those during La Niña events. These changes in AOD further increase (decrease) radiative fluxes into the atmosphere by +0.2 W m-2 (-0.4 W m-2) over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific. Thereby, sea surface temperature increases (decreases) by 0.2–0.4 K over the tropical eastern (western) Pacific Ocean during El Niño compared to La Niña events and enhances ENSO variability by 10%. The increase in ENSO amplitude is a result of systematic heating (cooling) during the warm (cold) phase, of ENSO in the eastern Pacific. Interannual variations in sea salt emissions then produce the anomalous ascent (subsidence) over the equatorial eastern (western) Pacific between El Niño and La Niña events, which is a result of heating anomalies. Due to variations in sea salt emissions, the convective precipitation is enhanced by 0.6–1.2 mm day-1 over the tropical central-eastern Pacific Ocean and weakened by 0.9–1.5 mm day-1 over the Maritime Continent during El Niño compared to La Niña events, enhancing the precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific.

  19. Balances de glaciares y clima en Bolivia y Perú: impacto de los eventos ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available BILANS GLACIAIRES ET CLIMAT EN BOLIVIE ET AU PÉROU : IMPACT DES ÉVÉNEMENTS ENSO. À partir d’une reconstruction faite pour le glacier de Zongo (Cordillère Royale, Bolivie avec des données hydrologiques et de l’application du modèle linéaire (Lliboutry sur les données des glaciers Yanamarey et Uruashraju (Cordillère Blanche, Pérou, on a pu disposer de séries de 15-20 ans de bilans de masse. En analysant parallèlement les données recueillies aux stations météorologiques proches, on met en évidence le rôle des températures dans la détermination de ces bilans. La variabilité des températures dépend de façon étroite des phénomènes ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation : pendant ces épisodes, les températures maximales et minimales augmentent sensiblement, ce qui affecte le terme ablation du bilan de masse. On vérifie sur ces séries de 20 ans que toutes les années ENSO sont associées à des bilans négatifs. Pendant la plupart des épisodes ENSO se produit au sud du Pérou et en Bolivie une réduction des précipitations, ce qui contribue à accentuer l’effet ENSO sur les bilans. Ces événements ont une grande influence sur l’évolution actuelle des glaciers andins, caractérisée par un recul rapide. La reconstrucción del balance hidrológico a partir de datos hidrométricos del glaciar de Zongo (Cordillera Real de Bolivia, así como la aplicación del modelo lineal (Lliboutry sobre los datos de balance de los glaciares Yanamarey y Uruashraju (Cordillera Blanca del Perú, ofrecen la posibilidad de disponer de series de 15-20 años de balance de masa. Analizando paralelamente los datos recogidos en estaciones meteorológicas cercanas, se puede evidenciar el rol de las temperaturas en la determinación de estos balances. La variabilidad de las temperaturas depende de una manera estrecha de los eventos ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation: durante estos eventos, las temperaturas máximas y mínimas aumentan

  20. The Role of Reversed Equatorial Zonal Transport in Terminating an ENSO Event (United States)

    Chen, H. C.; Hu, Z. Z.; Huang, B.; Sui, C. H.


    In this study, we demonstrate that a sudden reversal of anomalous equatorial zonal current at the peaking ENSO phase triggers the rapid termination of an ENSO event. Throughout an ENSO cycle, the anomalous equatorial zonal current is strongly controlled by the concavity of the anomalous thermocline meridional structure near the equator. During the ENSO developing phase, the anomalous zonal current in the central and eastern Pacific generally enhances the ENSO growth through its zonal SST advection. In the mature phase of ENSO, however, the equatorial thermocline depth anomalies are reflected in the eastern Pacific and slowly propagate westward off the equator in both hemispheres. As a result, the concavity of the thermocline anomalies near the equator is reversed, i.e., the off-equatorial thermocline depth anomalies become higher than that on the equator for El Niño events and lower for La Niño events. This meridional change of thermocline structure reverses zonal transport rapidly in the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific, which weakens the ENSO SST anomalies by reversed advection. More importantly, the reversed zonal mass transport weakens the existing zonal tilting of equatorial thermocline and suppresses the thermocline feedback. Both processes are concentrated in the eastern equatorial Pacific and can be effective on subseasonal time scales. These current reversal effects are built-in to the ENSO peak phase and independent of the zonal wind effect on thermocline slope. It functions as an oceanic control on ENSO evolution during both El Niño and La Niña events.

  1. Interdecadal Change in the Relationship Between the North Pacific Oscillation and the Pacific Meridional Mode and Its Impact on ENSO (United States)

    Shin, So-Jung; An, Soon-Il


    Two leading but independent modes of Northern Pacific atmospheric circulation: the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM), are known external triggers of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by the sequential migration of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies into the tropics possibly by means of wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedbacks. Because of the similar roles of NPO and PMM, most previous studies have explored them with no separation. Here, we investigate their independent and combined effects in triggering ENSO, and find that when the NPO and PMM occur simultaneously during spring, ENSO or ENSO-like SST anomalies are generated during the following winter; whereas when either the NPO or PMM occur alone, ENSO events rarely occur. Furthermore, the relationship between NPO and PMM shows noticeable interdecadal variability, which is related to decadal changes in the mean upper-level jet stream over the North Pacific. Changes in the upper-level jet stream modify the location of the center of the Aleutian Low, which plays a role in bridging the NPO and PMM processes, especially when it migrates to the southwest. The period when NPO and PMM are well correlated coincides somewhat with the active ENSO period, and vice versa, indicating that a more efficient trigger due to combined NPO-PMM processes results in a higher variation of ENSO. Finally, analysis of the coupled model control simulations strongly supports our observational analysis results.

  2. Coral based-ENSO/IOD related climate variability in Indonesia: a review (United States)

    Yudawati Cahyarini, Sri; Henrizan, Marfasran


    Indonesia is located in the prominent site to study climate variability as it lies between Pacific and Indian Ocean. It has consequences to the regional climate in Indonesia that its climate variability is influenced by the climate events in the Pacific oceans (e.g. ENSO) and in the Indian ocean (e.g. IOD), and monsoon as well as Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Northwestern monsoon causes rainfall in the region of Indonesia, while reversely Southwestern monsoon causes dry season around Indonesia. The ENSO warm phase called El Nino causes several droughts in Indonesian region, reversely the La Nina causes flooding in some regions in Indonesia. However, the impact of ENSO in Indonesia is different from one place to the others. Having better understanding on the climate phenomenon and its impact to the region requires long time series climate data. Paleoclimate study which provides climate data back into hundreds to thousands even to million years overcome this requirement. Coral Sr/Ca can provide information on past sea surface temperature (SST) and paired Sr/Ca and δ18O may be used to reconstruct variations in the precipitation balance (salinity) at monthly to annual interannual resolution. Several climate studies based on coral geochemical records in Indonesia show that coral Sr/Ca and δ18O from Indonesian records SST and salinity respectively. Coral Sr/Ca from inshore Seribu islands complex shows more air temperature rather than SST. Modern coral from Timor shows the impact of ENSO and IOD to the saliniy and SST is different at Timor sea. This result should be taken into account when interpreting Paleoclimate records over Indonesia. Timor coral also shows more pronounced low frequency SST variability compared to the SST reanalysis (model). The longer data of low frequency variability will improve the understanding of warming trend in this climatically important region.

  3. Impacts of ENSO on air-sea oxygen exchange: Observations and mechanisms (United States)

    Eddebbar, Yassir A.; Long, Matthew C.; Resplandy, Laure; Rödenbeck, Christian; Rodgers, Keith B.; Manizza, Manfredi; Keeling, Ralph F.


    Models and observations of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ≃ O2 + 1.1 * CO2) are used to investigate the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on air-sea O2 exchange. An atmospheric transport inversion of APO data from the Scripps flask network shows significant interannual variability in tropical APO fluxes that is positively correlated with the Niño3.4 index, indicating anomalous ocean outgassing of APO during El Niño. Hindcast simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace model show similar APO sensitivity to ENSO, differing from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model, which shows an opposite APO response. In all models, O2 accounts for most APO flux variations. Detailed analysis in CESM shows that the O2 response is driven primarily by ENSO modulation of the source and rate of equatorial upwelling, which moderates the intensity of O2 uptake due to vertical transport of low-O2 waters. These upwelling changes dominate over counteracting effects of biological productivity and thermally driven O2 exchange. During El Niño, shallower and weaker upwelling leads to anomalous O2 outgassing, whereas deeper and intensified upwelling during La Niña drives enhanced O2 uptake. This response is strongly localized along the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, leading to an equatorial zonal dipole in atmospheric anomalies of APO. This dipole is further intensified by ENSO-related changes in winds, reconciling apparently conflicting APO observations in the tropical Pacific. These findings suggest a substantial and complex response of the oceanic O2 cycle to climate variability that is significantly (>50%) underestimated in magnitude by ocean models.

  4. Late Pleistocene dune activity in the central Great Plains, USA (United States)

    Mason, J.A.; Swinehart, J.B.; Hanson, P.R.; Loope, D.B.; Goble, R.J.; Miao, X.; Schmeisser, R.L.


    Stabilized dunes of the central Great Plains, especially the megabarchans and large barchanoid ridges of the Nebraska Sand Hills, provide dramatic evidence of late Quaternary environmental change. Episodic Holocene dune activity in this region is now well-documented, but Late Pleistocene dune mobility has remained poorly documented, despite early interpretations of the Sand Hills dunes as Pleistocene relicts. New optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages from drill cores and outcrops provide evidence of Late Pleistocene dune activity at sites distributed across the central Great Plains. In addition, Late Pleistocene eolian sands deposited at 20-25 ka are interbedded with loess south of the Sand Hills. Several of the large dunes sampled in the Sand Hills clearly contain a substantial core of Late Pleistocene sand; thus, they had developed by the Late Pleistocene and were fully mobile at that time, although substantial sand deposition and extensive longitudinal dune construction occurred during the Holocene. Many of the Late Pleistocene OSL ages fall between 17 and 14 ka, but it is likely that these ages represent only the later part of a longer period of dune construction and migration. At several sites, significant Late Pleistocene or Holocene large-dune migration also probably occurred after the time represented by the Pleistocene OSL ages. Sedimentary structures in Late Pleistocene eolian sand and the forms of large dunes potentially constructed in the Late Pleistocene both indicate sand transport dominated by northerly to westerly winds, consistent with Late Pleistocene loess transport directions. Numerical modeling of the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum has often yielded mean monthly surface winds southwest of the Laurentide Ice Sheet that are consistent with this geologic evidence, despite strengthened anticyclonic circulation over the ice sheet. Mobility of large dunes during the Late Pleistocene on the central Great Plains may have been the result of

  5. Phylogeographic patterns of Hawaiian Megalagrion damselflies (Odonata: Coenagrionidae) correlate with Pleistocene island boundaries (United States)

    Jordan, Stephen A.; Simon, C.; Foote, D.; Englund, R.A.


    The Pleistocene geological history of the Hawaiian Islands is becoming well understood. Numerous predictions about the influence of this history on the genetic diversity of Hawaiian organisms have been made, including the idea that changing sea levels would lead to the genetic differentiation of populations isolated on individual volcanoes during high sea stands. Here, we analyse DNA sequence data from two closely related, endemic Hawaiian damselfly species in order to test these predictions, and generate novel insights into the effects of Pleistocene glaciation and climate change on island organisms. Megalagrion xanthomelas and Megalagrion pacificum are currently restricted to five islands, including three islands of the Maui Nui super-island complex (Molokai, Lanai, and Maui) that were connected during periods of Pleistocene glaciation, and Hawaii island, which has never been subdivided. Maui Nui and Hawaii are effectively a controlled, natural experiment on the genetic effects of Pleistocene sea level change. We confirm well-defined morphological species boundaries using data from the nuclear EF-1?? gene and show that the species are reciprocally monophyletic. We perform phylogeographic analyses of 663 base pairs (bp) of cytochrome oxidase subunit II (COII) gene sequence data from 157 individuals representing 25 populations. Our results point to the importance of Pleistocene land bridges and historical island habitat availability in maintaining inter-island gene flow. We also propose that repeated bottlenecks on Maui Nui caused by sea level change and restricted habitat availability are likely responsible for low genetic diversity there. An island analogue to northern genetic purity and southern diversity is proposed, whereby islands with little suitable habitat exhibit genetic purity while islands with more exhibit genetic diversity. ?? 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  6. ENSO Dynamics and Trends, AN Alternate View (United States)

    Rojo Hernandez, J. D.; Lall, U.; Mesa, O. J.


    El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important inter-annual climate fluctuation on a planetary level with great effects on the hydrological cycle, agriculture, ecosystems, health and society. This work demonstrates the use of the Non-Homogeneus hidden Markov Models (NHMM) to characterize ENSO using a set of discrete states with variable transition probabilities matrix using the data of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the Kaplan Extended SST v2 between 120E -90W, 15N-15S from Jan-1856 to Dec-2016. ENSO spatial patterns, their temporal distribution, the transition probabilities between patterns and their temporal evolution are the main results of the NHHMM applied to ENSO. The five "hidden" states found appear to represent the different "Flavors" described in the literature: the Canonical El Niño, Central El Niño, a Neutral state, Central La Niña and the Canonical Niña. Using the whole record length of the SSTA it was possible to identify trends in the dynamic system, with a decrease in the probability of occurrence of the cold events and a significant increase of the warm events, in particular of Central El Niño events whose probability of occurrence has increased Dramatically since 1960 coupled with increases in global temperature.

  7. An Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States); Zeng, Ning [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States)


    Rainfall variability over the Amazon basin has often been linked to variations in Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), and in particular, to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, only a fraction of Amazon rainfall variability can be explained by ENSO. Building upon the recent work of Zeng (Environ Res Lett 3:014002, 2008), here we provide further evidence for an influence on Amazon rainfall from the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The strength of the North Atlantic influence is found to be comparable to the better-known Pacific ENSO connection. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean also shows some influence during the wet-to-dry season transition period. The Atlantic influence is through changes in the north-south divergent circulation and the movement of the ITCZ following warm SST. Therefore, it is strongest in the southern part of the Amazon basin during the Amazon's dry season (July-October). In contrast, the ENSO related teleconnection is through anomalous east-west Walker circulation with largely concentrated in the eastern (lower) Amazon. This ENSO connection is seasonally locked to boreal winter. A complication due to the influence of ENSO on Atlantic SST causes an apparent North Atlantic SST lag of Amazon rainfall. Removing ENSO from North Atlantic SST via linear regression resolves this causality problem in that the residual Atlantic variability correlates well and is in phase with the Amazon rainfall. A strong Atlantic influence during boreal summer and autumn is particularly significant in terms of the impact on the hydro-ecosystem which is most vulnerable during the dry season, as highlighted by the severe 2005 Amazon drought. Such findings have implications for both seasonal-interannual climate prediction and understanding the longer-term changes of the Amazon rainforest. (orig.)

  8. The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: a 1,000-year climate modeling study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, B. [Environment Canada, Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON (Canada); Zwiers, F.W. [Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Victoria (Canada)


    This study analyzes the atmospheric response to the combined Pacific interannual ENSO and decadal-interdecadal PDO variability, with a focus on the Pacific-North American (PNA) sector, using a 1,000-year long integration of the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model. Both the tropospheric circulation and the North American temperature suggest an enhanced PNA-like climate response and impacts on North America when ENSO and PDO variability are in phase. The anomalies of the centers of action for the PNA-like pattern are significantly different from zero and the anomaly pattern is field significant. In association with the stationary wave anomalies, large stationary wave activity fluxes appear in the mid-high latitudes originating from the North Pacific and flowing downstream toward North America. There are significant Rossby wave source anomalies in the extratropical North Pacific and in the subtropical North Pacific. In addition, the axis of the Pacific storm track shifts southward with the positive PNA. Atmospheric heating anomalies associated with ENSO variability are confined primarily to the tropics. There is an anomalous heating center over the northeast Pacific, together with anomalies with the same polarity in the tropical Pacific, for the PDO variability. The in-phase combination of ENSO and PDO would in turn provide anomalous atmospheric energy transports towards North America from both the Tropical Pacific and the North Pacific, which tends to favor the occurrence of stationary wave anomalies and would lead to a PNA-like wave anomaly structure. The modeling results also confirm our analysis based on the observational record in the twentieth century. (orig.)

  9. Coastal upwelling along the southwest coast of India – ENSO modulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Muni Krishna


    Full Text Available An index of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO in the Pacific during pre monsoon season is shown to account for a significant part of the variability of coastal Sea Surface Temperature (SST anomalies measured a few months later within the wind driven southwest coast of India coastal upwelling region 7° N–14° N. This teleconnection is thought to result from an atmospheric bridge between the Pacific and north Indian Oceans, leading to warm (cold ENSO events being associated with relaxation (intensification of the Indian trade winds and of the wind-induced coastal upwelling. This ENSO related modulation of the wind-driven coastal upwelling appears to contribute to the connection observed at the basin-scale between ENSO and SST in the Arabian Sea. The ability to use this teleconnection to give warning of large changes in the southwest coast of India coastal upwelling few months in advance is successfully tested using data from 1998 and 1999 ENSO events.

  10. Fossil Coral Records of ENSO during the Last Glacial Period (United States)

    Partin, J. W.; Taylor, F. W.; Shen, C. C.; Edwards, R. L.; Quinn, T. M.; DiNezro, P.


    Only a handful of paleoclimate records exist that can resolve interannual changes, and hence El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, during the last glacial period, a time of altered mean climate. The few existing data suggest reduced ENSO variability compared to the Holocene, possibly due to a weaker zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the tropical Pacific and/or a deeper thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific. Our goal is to add crucial data to this extremely limited subset using sub-annually resolved fossil corals that grew during this time period to reconstruct ENSO. We seek to recover fossil corals from Vanuatu, SW Pacific (16°S, 167°E) with the objective of using coral δ18O to reconstruct changes in the ENSO during and near the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Modern δ18O coral records from Vanuatu show a high degree of skill in capturing ENSO variability, making it a suitable site for reconstructing ENSO variability. We have custom designed and are building a drill system that can rapidly core many 0-25 m holes resulting in much more meters of penetration than achieved by previous land-based reef drilling. As the new drill system is extremely portable and can be quickly relocated by workers without landing craft or vehicles, it is time and cost efficient. Because the proposed drilling sites have uplifted extremely fast, 7 mm/year, the LGM shoreline has been raised from 120-140 m depth to within a depth range of 10 below to 20 m above present sea level. This enables all the drilling to be within the time range of interest ( 15-25 ka). A last advantage is that the LGM corals either are still submersed in seawater or emerged only within the last 2000 years at the uplift rate of 7 mm/yr. This greatly reduces the chances of disruption of the original climate signal because sea water is less diagenetically damaging than meteoric water in the mixed, phreatic, or vadose zones. LGM coral records will enable us to compare the proxy variability

  11. Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error. (United States)

    Kim, Seon Tae; Jeong, Hye-In; Jin, Fei-Fei


    This study uses retrospective forecasts made using an APEC Climate Center seasonal forecast model to investigate the cause of errors in predicting the amplitude of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven sea surface temperature variability. When utilizing Bjerknes coupled stability (BJ) index analysis, enhanced errors in ENSO amplitude with forecast lead times are found to be well represented by those in the growth rate estimated by the BJ index. ENSO amplitude forecast errors are most strongly associated with the errors in both the thermocline slope response and surface wind response to forcing over the tropical Pacific, leading to errors in thermocline feedback. This study concludes that upper ocean temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific, which becomes more intense with increasing lead times, is a possible cause of forecast errors in the thermocline feedback and thus in ENSO amplitude.

  12. ENSO activity during the last climate cycle using Individual Foraminifera Analysis (United States)

    Leduc, G.; Vidal, L.; Thirumalai, K.


    The El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the principal mode of interannual climate variability and affects key climate parameters such as low-latitude rainfall variability. Recent climate modeling experiments tend to suggest an increase in the frequency of both El Niño and La Niña events in the future, but these results remain model-dependent and require to be validated by paleodata-model comparisons. Fossil corals indicate that the ENSO variance during the 20th century is particularly high as compared to other time periods of the Holocene. Beyond the Holocene, however, little is known on past ENSO changes, which makes difficult to test paleoclimate model simulations that are used to study the ENSO sensitivity to various types of forcings. We have expanded an Individual Foraminifera Analysis (IFA) dataset using the thermocline-dwelling N. dutertrei on a marine core collected in the Panama Basin (Leduc et al., 2009), that has proven to be a skillful way to reconstruct the ENSO (Thirumalai et al., 2013). Our new IFA dataset comprehensively covers the Holocene, allowing to verify how the IFA method compares with ENSO reconstructions using corals. The dataset then extends back in time to Marine Isotope Stage 6 (MIS), with a special focus the last deglaciation and Termination II (MIS5/6) time windows, as well as key time periods to tests the sensitivity of ENSO to ice volume and orbital parameters. The new dataset confirms variable ENSO activity during the Holocene and weaker activity during LGM than during the Holocene, as a recent isotope-enabled climate model simulations of the LGM suggests (Zhu et al., 2017). Such pattern is reproduced for the Termination II. Leduc, G., L. Vidal, O. Cartapanis, and E. Bard (2009), Modes of eastern equatorial Pacific thermocline variability: Implications for ENSO dynamics over the last glacial period, Paleoceanography, 24, PA3202, doi:10.1029/2008PA001701. Thirumalai, K., J. W. Partin, C. S. Jackson, and T. M. Quinn (2013

  13. DMS role in ENSO cycle in the tropics: DMS Role in ENSO Cycle in Tropics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Li [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Now at Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA; Cameron-Smith, Philip [Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore California USA; Russell, Lynn M. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Elliott, Scott [Climate Ocean Sea Ice Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico USA; Yang, Yang [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lou, Sijia [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lamjiri, Maryam A. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Manizza, Manfredi [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA


    We examined the multiyear mean and variability of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and its relationship to sulfate aerosols, as well as cloud microphysical and radiative properties. We conducted a 150 year simulation using preindustrial conditions produced by the Community Earth System Model embedded with a dynamic DMS module. The model simulated the mean spatial distribution of DMS emissions and burden, as well as sulfur budgets associated with DMS, SO2, H2SO4, and sulfate that were generally similar to available observations and inventories for a variety of regions. Changes in simulated sea-to-air DMS emissions and associated atmospheric abundance, along with associated aerosols and cloud and radiative properties, were consistently dominated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the tropical Pacific region. Simulated DMS, aerosols, and clouds showed a weak positive feedback on sea surface temperature. This feedback suggests a link among DMS, aerosols, clouds, and climate on interannual timescales. The variability of DMS emissions associated with ENSO was primarily caused by a higher variation in wind speed during La Niña events. The simulation results also suggest that variations in DMS emissions increase the frequency of La Niña events but do not alter ENSO variability in terms of the standard deviation of the Niño 3 sea surface temperature anomalies.

  14. ENSO's non-stationary and non-Gaussian character: the role of climate shifts (United States)

    Boucharel, J.; Dewitte, B.; Garel, B.; Du Penhoat, Y.


    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability in the Pacific, having socio-economic impacts on surrounding regions. ENSO exhibits significant modulation on decadal to inter-decadal time scales which is related to changes in its characteristics (onset, amplitude, frequency, propagation, and predictability). Some of these characteristics tend to be overlooked in ENSO studies, such as its asymmetry (the number and amplitude of warm and cold events are not equal) and the deviation of its statistics from those of the Gaussian distribution. These properties could be related to the ability of the current generation of coupled models to predict ENSO and its modulation. Here, ENSO's non-Gaussian nature and asymmetry are diagnosed from in situ data and a variety of models (from intermediate complexity models to full-physics coupled general circulation models (CGCMs)) using robust statistical tools initially designed for financial mathematics studies. In particular α-stable laws are used as theoretical background material to measure (and quantify) the non-Gaussian character of ENSO time series and to estimate the skill of ``naïve'' statistical models in producing deviation from Gaussian laws and asymmetry. The former are based on non-stationary processes dominated by abrupt changes in mean state and empirical variance. It is shown that the α-stable character of ENSO may result from the presence of climate shifts in the time series. Also, cool (warm) periods are associated with ENSO statistics having a stronger (weaker) tendency towards Gaussianity and lower (greater) asymmetry. This supports the hypothesis of ENSO being rectified by changes in mean state through nonlinear processes. The relationship between changes in mean state and nonlinearity (skewness) is further investigated both in the Zebiak and Cane (1987)'s model and the models of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Whereas there is a clear relationship in all

  15. Do ENSO and Coastal Development Enhance Coastal Burial of Terrestrial Carbon? (United States)

    Macreadie, Peter I; Rolph, Timothy C; Boyd, Ron; Schröder-Adams, Claudia J; Skilbeck, Charles G


    Carbon cycling on the east coast of Australia has the potential to be strongly affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) intensification and coastal development (industrialization and urbanization). We performed paleoreconstructions of estuarine sediments from a seagrass-dominated estuary on the east coast of Australia (Tuggerah Lake, New South Wales) to test the hypothesis that millennial-scale ENSO intensification and European settlement in Australia have increased the transfer of organic carbon from land into coastal waters. Our data show that carbon accumulation rates within coastal sediments increased significantly during periods of maximum millennial-scale ENSO intensity ("super-ENSO") and coastal development. We suggest that ENSO and coastal development destabilize and liberate terrestrial soil carbon, which, during rainfall events (e.g., La Niña), washes into estuaries and becomes trapped and buried by coastal vegetation (seagrass in this case). Indeed, periods of high carbon burial were generally characterized as having rapid sedimentation rates, higher content of fine-grained sediments, and increased content of wood and charcoal fragments. These results, though preliminary, suggest that coastal development and ENSO intensification--both of which are predicted to increase over the coming century--can enhance capture and burial of terrestrial carbon by coastal ecosystems. These findings have important relevance for current efforts to build an understanding of terrestrial-marine carbon connectivity into global carbon budgets.

  16. Perspective on the northwestward shift of autumn tropical cyclogenesis locations over the western North Pacific from shifting ENSO (United States)

    Hu, Chundi; Zhang, Chengyang; Yang, Song; Chen, Dake; He, Shengping


    During the recent decades of satellite era, more tropical cyclogenesis locations (TCLs) were observed over the northwestern part of the western North Pacific (WNP), relative to the southeastern part, during the boreal autumn. This increase in TCLs over the northwestern WNP is largely attributed to the synergy of shifting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 1998 Pacific climate regime shift. Both central Pacific (CP) La Niña and CP El Niño have occurred more frequently since 1998, with only one eastern Pacific El Niño observed in autumn 2015. The change in the mean longitude of TCLs is closely linked to the ENSO diversity, whereas the change in the mean latitude is dominated by the warming of the WNP induced by an interdecadal tendency of CP La Niña-like events. The physical mechanisms responsible for this shifting ENSO-TCL linkage can be potentially explained by the tacit-and-mutual configurations between tropical upper-tropospheric trough and monsoon trough, on both interannual and interdecadal timescales, which is mainly due to the ENSO-related large-scale environment changes in ocean and atmosphere that modulate the WNP TCL.

  17. Shifting patterns of ENSO variability from a 492-year South Pacific coral core (United States)

    Tangri, N.; Linsley, B. K.; Mucciarone, D.; Dunbar, R. B.


    Anticipating the impacts of ENSO in a changing climate requires detailed reconstructions of changes in its timing, amplitude, and spatial pattern, as well as attempts to attribute those changes to external forcing or internal variability. A continuous coral δ18O record from American Samoa, in the tropical South Pacific, sheds light on almost five centuries of these changes. We find evidence of internally-driven 50-100 year cycles with broad peaks of high variability punctuated by short transitions of low variability. We see a long, slow trend towards more frequent ENSO events, punctuated by sharp decreases in frequency; the 20th century in particular shows a strong trend towards higher-frequency ENSO. Due to the unique location of American Samoa with respect to ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, we infer changes in the spatial pattern of ENSO. American Samoa currently lies on the ENSO 3.4 nodal line - the boomerang shape that separates waters warmed by El Niño from those that cool. Closer examination reveals that SST around American Samoa displays opposing responses to Eastern and Central Pacific ENSO events. However, this has not always been the case; in the late 19th and early 20th century, SST responded similarly to both flavors of ENSO. We interpret this to mean a geographic narrowing towards the equator of the eastern Pacific El Niño SST anomaly pattern in the first half of the 20th century.

  18. ENSO Related Interannual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology (United States)

    Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel J.


    It has been shown that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production in the tropics and subtropics more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics. Using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for ENSO phase, lightning data were averaged into corresponding mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases. These processes were then studied for inter-annual variance and subsequent correlation to ENSO during the study period to best describe the observed lightning deviations from year to year at each location.

  19. ENSO-driven nutrient variability recorded by central equatorial Pacific corals (United States)

    LaVigne, M.; Nurhati, I. S.; Cobb, K. M.; McGregor, H. V.; Sinclair, D. J.; Sherrell, R. M.


    Recent evidence for shifts in global ocean primary productivity suggests that surface ocean nutrient availability is a key link between global climate and ocean carbon cycling. Time-series records from satellite, in situ buoy sensors, and bottle sampling have documented the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on equatorial Pacific hydrography and broad changes in biogeochemistry since the late 1990's, however, data are sparse prior to this. Here we use a new paleoceanographic nutrient proxy, coral P/Ca, to explore the impact of ENSO on nutrient availability in the central equatorial Pacific at higher-resolution than available from in situ nutrient data. Corals from Christmas (157°W 2°N) and Fanning (159°W 4°N) Islands recorded a well-documented decrease in equatorial upwelling as a ~40% decrease in P/Ca during the 1997-98 ENSO cycle, validating the application of this proxy to Pacific Porites corals. We compare the biogeochemical shifts observed through the 1997-98 event with two pre-TOGA-TAO ENSO cycles (1982-83 and 1986-87) reconstructed from a longer Christmas Island core. All three corals revealed ~30-40% P/Ca depletions during ENSO warming as a result of decreased regional wind stress, thermocline depth, and equatorial upwelling velocity. However, at the termination of each El Niño event, surface nutrients did not return to pre-ENSO levels for ~4-12 months after, SST as a result of increased biological draw down of surface nutrients. These records demonstrate the utility of high-resolution coral nutrient archives for understanding the impact of tropical Pacific climate on the nutrient and carbon cycling of this key region.

  20. Indo-Pacific ENSO modes in a double-basin Zebiak-Cane model (United States)

    Wieners, Claudia; de Ruijter, Will; Dijkstra, Henk


    We study Indo-Pacific interactions on ENSO timescales in a double-basin version of the Zebiak-Cane ENSO model, employing both time integrations and bifurcation analysis (continuation methods). The model contains two oceans (the Indian and Pacific Ocean) separated by a meridional wall. Interaction between the basins is possible via the atmosphere overlaying both basins. We focus on the effect of the Indian Ocean (both its mean state and its variability) on ENSO stability. In addition, inspired by analysis of observational data (Wieners et al, Coherent tropical Indo-Pacific interannual climate variability, in review), we investigate the effect of state-dependent atmospheric noise. Preliminary results include the following: 1) The background state of the Indian Ocean stabilises the Pacific ENSO (i.e. the Hopf bifurcation is shifted to higher values of the SST-atmosphere coupling), 2) the West Pacific cooling (warming) co-occurring with El Niño (La Niña) is essential to simulate the phase relations between Pacific and Indian SST anomalies, 3) a non-linear atmosphere is needed to simulate the effect of the Indian Ocean variability onto the Pacific ENSO that is suggested by observations.

  1. Source of low frequency modulation of ENSO amplitude in a CGCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, Byung-Kwon [Chonbuk National University, Division of Science Education/Institute of Science Education, Jeonju (Korea); Yeh, Sang-Wook [Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, Ansan (Korea); Dewitte, Boris [Laboratoire d' Etude en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, Toulouse (France); Jhun, Jong-Ghap [Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul (Korea); Kang, In-Sik [Seoul National University, Climate Environment System Research Center (CES), Seoul (Korea)


    We study the relationship between changes in equatorial stratification and low frequency El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude modulation in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) that uses an anomaly coupling strategy to prevent climate drifts in the mean state. The stratification is intensified at upper levels in the western and central equatorial Pacific during periods of high ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, changes in equatorial stratification are connected with subsurface temperature anomalies originating from the central south tropical Pacific. The correlation analysis of ocean temperature anomalies against an index for the ENSO modulation supports the hypothesis of the existence of an oceanic ''tunnel'' that connects the south tropical Pacific to the equatorial wave guide. Further analysis of the wind stress projection coefficient onto the oceanic baroclinic modes suggests that the low frequency modulation of ENSO amplitude is associated with a significant contribution of higher-order modes in the western and central equatorial Pacific. In the light of these results, we suggest that, in the CGCM, change in the baroclinic mode energy distribution associated with low frequency ENSO amplitude modulation have its source in the central south tropical Pacific. (orig.)

  2. Relationship between annual precipitation variability and ENSO in Southern California for the Common Era (last 2,000 years) (United States)

    DU, X.; Hendy, I. L.; Hinnov, L.; Brown, E. T.; Schimmelmann, A.; Pak, D. K.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a major influence on Southern California's hydroclimate as demonstrated by both historical observations and model simulations. Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) off Southern California preserves a unique varved (i.e. annually laminated) marine sedimentary archive of modern and Holocene hydroclimate variability, notably including the transition from the regionally dry Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the wetter Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we present sub-annually resolved scanning XRF elemental counts for the last 2,000 years in SBB from core SPR0901-03KC. Titanium (associated with silicate minerals) is delivered more efficiently to SBB sediments during times of enhanced river flow and in the Mediterranean climate of Southern California, river flow only occurs after precipitation. The Ti record suggests that the precipitation frequency was reduced during the MCA except for a pluvial episode at CE 1075-1121, but increased during the LIA. Time series analysis of Ti counts indicates ENSO variability robustly increased during the intervals CE 450-520, 650-720, 980-1150, 1380-1550 and 1720-1750, and experienced relatively quiescent intervals between CE 50-150, 250-400, 550-650, 750-950, 1150-1280 and 1580-1620. Generally the LIA in Southern California is characterized by more active ENSO variability with long periodicities (4-7 yr) and multi-decadal variability (54 yr). MCA drought episodes were associated with less active ENSO. Active ENSO variability in Southern California during the last 2,000 years coincided with reconstructed southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) suggesting the ITCZ may play a role in the waxing and waning of ENSO teleconnections between the central Pacific and the west coast of North America.

  3. Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) over the Indonesian Maritime Continent during the ENSO events (United States)

    Trismidianto; Satyawardhana, H.


    This study analyzed the mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) over the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) during the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events for the the15-year period from 2001 to 2015. The MCCs identified by infrared satellite imagery that obtained from the Himawari generation satellite data. This study has reported that the frequencies of the MCC occurrences at the El Niño and La Niña were higher than that of neutral conditions during DJF. Peak of MCC occurrences during DJF at La Niña and neutral condition is in February, while El Niño is in January. ENSO strongly affects the occurrence of MCC during the DJF season. The existences of the MCC were also accompanied by increased rainfall intensity at the locations of the MCC occurrences for all ENSO events. During JJA seasons, the MCC occurrences are always found during neutral conditions, El Niño and La Niña in Indian Ocean. MCC occurring during the JJA season on El Niño and neutral conditions averaged much longer than during the DJF season. In contrast, MCCs occurring in La Niña conditions during the JJA season are more rapidly extinct than during the DJF. It indicates that the influence of MCC during La Niña during the DJF season is stronger than during the JJA season.

  4. Tracking ENSO with tropical trees: Progress in stable isotope dendroclimatology (United States)

    Evans, M. N.; Poussart, P. F.; Saleska, S. R.; Schrag, D. P.


    The terrestrial tropics remain an important gap in the growing proxy network used to characterize past ENSO behavior. Here we describe a strategy for development of proxy estimates of paleo-ENSO, via proxy rainfall estimates derived from stable isotope (δ18O) measurements made on tropical trees. The approach applies a new model of oxygen isotopic composition of alpha-cellulose (Roden et al., 2000), a rapid method for cellulose extraction from raw wood (Brendel et al., 2000), and continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry (Brand, 1996) to develop proxy chronological, rainfall and growth rate estimates from tropical trees, even those lacking annual rings. The promise and pitfalls of the approach are illustrated in pilot datasets from the US, Costa Rica, Brazil, and Peru, which show isotopic cycles of 4-6 per mil, and interannual anomalies of up to 8 per mil. Together with the mature ENSO proxies (corals, extratropical tree-rings, varved sediments, and ice cores), replicated and well-dated stable isotope chronologies from tropical trees may eventually improve our understanding of ENSO history over the past several hundred years.

  5. La pluviométrie au Pérou pendant les phases ENSO et LNSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available Les données mensuelles (1960-1990 de précipitations de 21 stations situées dans les trois domaines physiques du Pérou (côte, Andes et plaine amazonienne sont analysées lors des phases ENSO et LNSO de l’Oscillation Australe du Pacifique. Ce n’est qu’à Piura, dans la région côtière du Nord, que les excédents sont significatifs en phase ENSO (test de Kolmogorov-Smirnov mais les volumes précipités sont très différents d’un événement à l’autre. Ailleurs, n’apparaît pas de différence significative entre les pluies des phases ENSO (ou LNSO et celles des périodes normales. Toutefois, la pluviométrie est souvent déficitaire dans les Andes en phase ENSO en période LNSO, elle est également déficitaire au Sud des Andes, mais plus souvent excédentaire au Nord. Dans la plaine amazonienne, la variabilité spatio-temporelle est trop importante lors des deux phases pour que soit esquissé un comportement général. LA PLUVIOMETRÍA EN EL PERÚ DURANTE LAS FASES ENSO Y LNSO. Los datos mensuales (1960-1990 de precipitación de 21 estaciones ubicadas en la Costa, la Sierra y la Selva de Perú son estudiados durante las fases ENSO y LNSO de la Oscilación del Sur del Pacífico. Las lluvias de Piura, en el norte de la Costa, son las únicas que presentan excesos significativos (test de Kolmogorov-Smirnov durante la fase ENSO pero los volúmenes cambian mucho de un evento a otro. No hay, en otros lugares, diferencia significativa entre las lluvias de las fases ENSO (o LNSO y las lluvias de años normales. Pero, muchas veces, la pluviosidad es deficitaria en los Andes durante los ENSO durante los eventos LNSO, las lluvias son también deficitarias en los Andes del Sur, pero más veces hay excesos en el Norte. En la Selva Amazónica, la variabilidad espacio-temporal es demasiado grande para dibujar un comportamiento general. RAINFALL IN PERU DURING THE ENSO AND LNSO PHASES. Monthly rainfall data (1960-1990 taken from 21 stations in three

  6. Tropical influence on Euro-Asian autumn rainfall variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariotti, A. [University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); ENEA, Rome (Italy); Ballabrera-Poy, J. [University of Maryland, ESSIC, College Park, MD (United States); Zeng, N. [University of Maryland, ESSIC, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Meteorology,, College Park, MD (United States)


    The connection between autumn rainfall variability in the Euro-Asian domain and tropical climate is documented using state-of-the-art global observational datasets and re-analyses. Results suggest a robust statistical relationship between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and autumn rainfall in parts of southwest Europe, northern Africa and southwest Asia. The correlation between area-mean anomalies over this region (P{sub ea}) and the NINO3.4 index is 0.68, stationary over the last 50 years. Global ENSO-like tropical climate anomalies are observed in conjunction with P{sub ea} anomalies confirming the relationship found with the NINO3.4 index. Overall, the connection with Indo-Pacific variability is stronger than that with the eastern Pacific.While rainfall anomalies in southwest Europe and southwest Asia appear to largely co-vary as one pattern under the influence of ENSO, our results suggest that different mechanisms may be contributing to the observed anomalies. In the North Atlantic/European region, it is speculated that while a PNA-like mode maybe the prevailing teleconnection mechanism for high P{sub ea}, for low P{sub ea} tropical Atlantic ENSO related SST anomalies may be playing a more relevant role forcing northeastward propagating Rossby waves. Over southwest Asia, a more direct connection to the Indo-Pacific region is suggested by the upper air anomaly observed over southern Asia, possibly the Rossby wave response to enhanced heating in the Indian Ocean. (orig.)

  7. Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model (United States)

    Lee, Hyun-Chul; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu


    Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific.

  8. A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming (United States)

    Chen, Lin; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang; Behera, Swadhin K.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the greatest climate variability on interannual time scale, yet what controls ENSO amplitude changes under global warming (GW) is uncertain. Here we show that the fundamental factor that controls the divergent projections of ENSO amplitude change within 20 coupled general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 is the change of climatologic mean Pacific subtropical cell (STC), whose strength determines the meridional structure of ENSO perturbations and thus the anomalous thermocline response to the wind forcing. The change of the thermocline response is a key factor regulating the strength of Bjerknes thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, which ultimately lead to the divergent changes in ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, by forcing an ocean general circulation mode with the change of zonal mean zonal wind stress estimated by a simple theoretical model, a weakening of the STC in future is obtained. Such a change implies that ENSO variability might strengthen under GW, which could have a profound socio-economic consequence.

  9. Climate, ENSO and 'Black Swans' over the Last Millennium (United States)

    Thompson, L. G.; Mosley-Thompson, E.; Davis, M. E.; Kenny, D. V.; Lin, P. N.


    Tropical rainfall patterns influence the lives of billions of people both north and south of the Equator. Evidence of major ENSO events such as droughts is often recorded in the oxygen isotopic ratios and aerosol concentrations in tropical ice cores. Here we examine unusual events recorded in three ice cores, two (Quelccaya and Coropuna) in the Southern Hemisphere on the Peruvian Altiplano and the third (Dasuopu) located 22,000 km away on the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau at the top of the Himalayas. These records suggest that the unique lower and middle tropospheric air flow over chloride (Cl-) and fluoride (F-) enriched areas upwind of the sites during ENSO events leads to enhanced deposition of these species on these glaciers. Linkages are demonstrated between ice-core chemistry and drought indicators, changes in lake levels, and ENSO and monsoon indices. Two unusual events, in the late 18th and mid-14th Centuries, are marked by abnormally high concentrations of F- and Cl- in at least two of the ice core records. All three records document a drought from 1789 to 1800 CE in which increases in these anionic concentrations reflect the abundance of continental atmospheric dust derived from arid regions upwind of the core sites. The earlier event, apparent only in the Quelccaya and Dasuopu ice cores, begins abruptly in 1343 and tapers off by 1375. The interaction between high frequency El Niños and low frequency shifts in the inter-tropical convergence zone may have resulted in these unusually severe and extended droughts. These "Black Swan" events correspond to historically documented, devastating population disruptions that were in part climate related. The 1789 to 1800 CE event was concurrent with the Doji Bara famine resulting from extended droughts that led to over 600,000 deaths in central India by 1792. Similarly extensive climate disruptions are documented in Central and South America. The mid-14th Century drought is concomitant with major monsoon

  10. Early pleistocene sediments at Great Blakenham, Suffolk, England (United States)

    Gibbard, P. L.; Allen, P.; Field, M. H.; Hallam, D. F.

    Detailed investigation of a fine sediment sequence, the College Farm Silty Clay Member, that overlies the Creeting Sands (Early Pleistocene) in Suffolk, is presented. The sedimentary sequence is thought to represent a freshwater pool accumulation in a small coastal embayment. Palaeobotanical investigation of the sediment indicates that it accumulated during the late temperate substage of a temperate (interglacial) event. The occurrence of Tsuga pollen, associated with abundant remains of the water fern Azolla tegeliensis indicate that the deposits are of Early Pleistocene age and are correlated with a later part of the Antian-Bramertonian Stage. Correlation with Tiglian TO substage in The Netherlands' sequence is most likely. The sediments' normal palaeomagnetic polarity reinforces the biostratigraphical correlation.

  11. Role of tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans variability on ENSO (United States)

    Prodhomme, Chloé; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sebastien; Boschat, Ghyslaine


    There are strong evidences of an interaction between tropical Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Nevertheless, these interactions remain deeply controversial. While some authors claim the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans only play a passive role with respect to ENSO, others suggest a driving role for these two basins on ENSO. The mecanisms underlying these relations are not fully understood and, in the Indian Ocean, the possible role of both modes of tropical variability (the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOB)) remain unclear. To better quantify and understand how the variability of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans impact ENSO variability, we performed two sensitivity experiments using the SINTEX-F2 coupled model. For each experiment, we suppressed the variability of SST and the air-sea coupling in either the tropical Indian Ocean or tropical Atlantic Ocean by applying a strong nudging of the SST to the observed SST climatology. In both experiments, the ENSO periodicity increases. In the Atlantic experiment, our understanding of this increased periodicity is drastically limited by the strongly biased mean state in this region. Conversely, in the Indian Ocean experiment, the increase of ENSO periodicity is related to the absence of the IOB following the El Niño peak, which leads to a decrease of westerly winds in the western Pacific during late winter and spring after the peak. These weaker westerlies hinders the transition to a La Niña phase and thus increase the duration and periodicity of the event.

  12. Tropospheric Column Ozone Response to ENSO in GEOS-5 Assimilation of OMI and MLS Ozone Data (United States)

    Olsen, Mark A.; Wargan, Krzysztof; Pawson, Steven


    We use GEOS-5 analyses of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone observations to investigate the magnitude and spatial distribution of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on tropospheric column ozone (TCO) into the middle latitudes. This study provides the first explicit spatially resolved characterization of the ENSO influence and demonstrates coherent patterns and teleconnections impacting the TCO in the extratropics. The response is evaluated and characterized by both the variance explained and sensitivity of TCO to the Nino 3.4 index. The tropospheric response in the tropics agrees well with previous studies and verifies the analyses. A two-lobed response symmetric about the Equator in the western Pacific/Indonesian region seen in some prior studies and not in others is confirmed here. This two-lobed response is consistent with the large-scale vertical transport. We also find that the large-scale transport in the tropics dominates the response compared to the small-scale convective transport. The ozone response is weaker in the middle latitudes, but a significant explained variance of the TCO is found over several small regions, including the central United States. However, the sensitivity of TCO to the Nino 3.4 index is statistically significant over a large area of the middle latitudes. The sensitivity maxima and minima coincide with anomalous anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulations where the associated vertical transport is consistent with the sign of the sensitivity. Also, ENSO related changes to the mean tropopause height can contribute significantly to the midlatitude response. Comparisons to a 22-year chemical transport model simulation demonstrate that these results from the 9- year assimilation are representative of the longer term. This investigation brings insight to several seemingly disparate prior studies of the El Nino influence on tropospheric ozone in the middle latitudes.

  13. Tropospheric column ozone response to ENSO in GEOS-5 assimilation of OMI and MLS ozone data

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    M. A. Olsen


    Full Text Available We use GEOS-5 analyses of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS ozone observations to investigate the magnitude and spatial distribution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO influence on tropospheric column ozone (TCO into the middle latitudes. This study provides the first explicit spatially resolved characterization of the ENSO influence and demonstrates coherent patterns and teleconnections impacting the TCO in the extratropics. The response is evaluated and characterized by both the variance explained and sensitivity of TCO to the Niño 3.4 index. The tropospheric response in the tropics agrees well with previous studies and verifies the analyses. A two-lobed response symmetric about the Equator in the western Pacific/Indonesian region seen in some prior studies and not in others is confirmed here. This two-lobed response is consistent with the large-scale vertical transport. We also find that the large-scale transport in the tropics dominates the response compared to the small-scale convective transport. The ozone response is weaker in the middle latitudes, but a significant explained variance of the TCO is found over several small regions, including the central United States. However, the sensitivity of TCO to the Niño 3.4 index is statistically significant over a large area of the middle latitudes. The sensitivity maxima and minima coincide with anomalous anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulations where the associated vertical transport is consistent with the sign of the sensitivity. Also, ENSO related changes to the mean tropopause height can contribute significantly to the midlatitude response. Comparisons to a 22-year chemical transport model simulation demonstrate that these results from the 9-year assimilation are representative of the longer term. This investigation brings insight to several seemingly disparate prior studies of the El Niño influence on tropospheric ozone in the middle latitudes.

  14. Identification of symmetric and asymmetric responses in seasonal streamflow globally to ENSO phase (United States)

    Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip J.; Block, Paul


    The phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has large-ranging effects on streamflow and hydrologic conditions globally. While many studies have evaluated this relationship through correlation analysis between annual streamflow and ENSO indices, an assessment of potential asymmetric relationships between ENSO and streamflow is lacking. Here, we evaluate seasonal variations in streamflow by ENSO phase to identify asymmetric (AR) and symmetric (SR) spatial pattern responses globally and further corroborate with local precipitation and hydrological condition. The AR and SR patterns between seasonal precipitation and streamflow are identified at many locations for the first time. Our results identify strong SR patterns in particular regions including northwestern and southern US, northeastern and southeastern South America, northeastern and southern Africa, southwestern Europe, and central-south Russia. The seasonally lagged anomalous streamflow patterns are also identified and attributed to snowmelt, soil moisture, and/or cumulative hydrological processes across river basins. These findings may be useful in water resources management and natural hazards planning by better characterizing the propensity of flood or drought conditions by ENSO phase.

  15. An MJO-Mediated Mechanism to Explain ENSO and IOD Impacts on East African Short Rains (United States)

    Zaitchik, B. F.; Berhane, F.; Gnanadesikan, A.


    Previous studies have found that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) have significant impacts on rainfall over East Africa (EA) during the short rains (Oct-Dec). However, not all ENSO and IOD events are associated with significant precipitation anomalies over EA. Our analysis shows that the IOD and ENSO influence EA rainfall by modifying the MJO. Composite analysis of rainfall and outgoing longwave radiation data show that the MJO over the Indian Ocean (phases 2 and 3 of the Wheeler and Hendon index) is associated with significant increase in precipitation over EA during El Niño. In La Niña and non-ENSO years, the MJO over the Indian Ocean has very weak impacts on EA convection and precipitation. Although previous studies have found that El Niño / La Niña events are associated with anomalous wetness/dryness over EA, the associations are not evident in the absence of the MJO. Similarly, the IOD exhibits strong associations with EA precipitation when there is MJO activity over the Indian Ocean. During the positive phase of the IOD, the MJO over the Indian Ocean has impacts that extend to EA. In the absence of the MJO, however, the IOD shows weak associations with EA precipitation. Furthermore, there are more MJO days in the Indian Ocean during El Niño and positive IOD events, which implies stronger impacts on EA. During La Niña events more MJO days are observed in the Pacific Ocean, favoring subsidence over the western Indian Ocean and dry anomalies over EA. These observations suggest two critical MJO-related questions that must be addressed in order to explain EA short rain variability typically attributed to ENSO or IOD: first, how do ENSO and IOD modify background conditions in a way that causes Indian Ocean MJO activity to be more strongly connected to EA under El Niño and IOD positive conditions, and second, why is it that El Niño and IOD positive states slow MJO propagation over the Indian Ocean and speed it over

  16. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming. (United States)

    Nowack, Peer J; Braesicke, Peter; Luke Abraham, N; Pyle, John A


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state-of-the-art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle-to-upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability.

  17. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming (United States)

    Nowack, P. J.; Braesicke, P.; Abraham, N. L.; Pyle, J. A.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. Here we show that typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations (i.e. standard abrupt 4xCO2). We mainly explain this effect by the lapse rate adjustment of the tropical troposphere to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) under 4xCO2. The ozone-induced lapse rate changes modify the Walker circulation response to the CO2 forcing and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. Therefore, not including ozone feedbacks increases the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. In addition, we demonstrate that even if ozone changes in the tropical UTLS are included in the simulations, the neglect of the ozone response in the middle-upper stratosphere still leads to significantly larger ENSO amplitudes (compared to simulations run with a fully interactive atmospheric chemistry scheme). Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. Our results imply that this could affect the inter-model spread found in ENSO projections and, more generally, surface climate change simulations. We discuss the additional complexity in quantifying such ozone-related effects that arises from the apparent model dependency of chemistry-climate feedbacks and, possibly, their range of surface climate impacts. In conclusion, we highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability. Reference: Nowack PJ, Braesicke P, Abraham NL, and Pyle JA (2017), On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 3858-3866, doi:10.1002/2016GL072418.

  18. Lifestyle and Ice: The Relationship between Ecological Specialization and Response to Pleistocene Climate Change. (United States)

    Kašparová, Eva; Van de Putte, Anton P; Marshall, Craig; Janko, Karel


    Major climatic changes in the Pleistocene had significant effects on marine organisms and the environments in which they lived. The presence of divergent patterns of demographic history even among phylogenetically closely-related species sharing climatic changes raises questions as to the respective influence of species-specific traits on population structure. In this work we tested whether the lifestyle of Antarctic notothenioid benthic and pelagic fish species from the Southern Ocean influenced the concerted population response to Pleistocene climatic fluctuations. This was done by a comparative analysis of sequence variation at the cyt b and S7 loci in nine newly sequenced and four re-analysed species. We found that all species underwent more or less intensive changes in population size but we also found consistent differences between demographic histories of pelagic and benthic species. Contemporary pelagic populations are significantly more genetically diverse and bear traces of older demographic expansions than less diverse benthic species that show evidence of more recent population expansions. Our findings suggest that the lifestyles of different species have strong influences on their responses to the same environmental events. Our data, in conjunction with previous studies showing a constant diversification tempo of these species during the Pleistocene, support the hypothesis that Pleistocene glaciations had a smaller effect on pelagic species than on benthic species whose survival may have relied upon ephemeral refugia in shallow shelf waters. These findings suggest that the interaction between lifestyle and environmental changes should be considered in genetic analyses.

  19. Global land carbon sink response to temperature and precipitation varies with ENSO phase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yuanyuan; Michalak, Anna M.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Berry, Joseph A.; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Poulter, Benjamin; Fisher, Joshua B.; Cook, Robert B.; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul; Lei, Huimin; Lu, Chaoqun; Mao, Jiafu; Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Peng, Shushi; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Tao, Bo; Tian, Hanqin; Wang, Weile; Wei, Yaxing; Yang, Jia


    Climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its consequent impacts on land carbon sink interannual variability have been used as a basis for investigating carbon cycle responses to climate variability more broadly, and to inform the sensitivity of the tropical carbon budget to climate change. Past studies have presented opposing views about whether temperature or precipitation is the primary factor driving the response of the land carbon sink to ENSO. Here, we show that the dominant driver varies with ENSO phase. Whereas tropical temperature explains sink dynamics following El Niño conditions (rTG,P=0.59, p<0.01), the post La Niña sink is driven largely by tropical precipitation (rPG,T=-0.46, p=0.04). This finding points to an ENSO-phase-dependent interplay between water availability and temperature in controlling the carbon uptake response to climate variations in tropical ecosystems. We further find that none of a suite of ten contemporary terrestrial biosphere models captures these ENSO-phase-dependent responses, highlighting a key uncertainty in modeling climate impacts on the future of the global land carbon sink.

  20. ENSO Diversity Changes Due To Global Warming In CESM-LE (United States)

    Carreric, A.; Dewitte, B.; Guemas, V.


    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is predicted to be modified due to global warming based on the CMIP3 and CMIP5 data bases. In particular the frequency of occurrence of extreme Eastern Pacific El Niño events is to double in the future in response to the increase in green-house gazes. Such forecast relies however on state-of-the-art models that still present mean state biases and do not simulate realistically key features of El Niño events such as its diversity which is related to the existence of at least two types of El Niño events, the Eastern Pacific (EP) El Nino and the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events. Here we take advantage of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LE) that provides 35 realizations of the climate of the 1920-2100 period with a combination of both natural and anthropogenic climate forcing factors, to explore on the one hand methods to detect changes in ENSO statistics and on the other hand to investigate changes in thermodynamical processes associated to the increase oceanic stratification owed to global warming. The CESM simulates realistically many aspects of the ENSO diversity, in particular the non-linear evolution of the phase space of the first two EOF modes of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Based on indices accounting for the two ENSO regimes used in the literature, we show that, although there is no statistically significant (i.e. confidence level > 95%) changes in the occurrence of El Niño types from the present to the future climate, the estimate of the changes is sensitive to the definition of ENSO indices that is used. CESM simulates in particular an increase occurrence of extreme El Niño events that can vary by 28% from one method to the other. It is shown that the seasonal evolution of EP El Niño events is modified from the present to the future climate, with in particular a larger occurrence of events taking place in Austral summer in the warmer climate

  1. Influencia del fenómeno ENSO sobre la precipitación nival en el sector andino de Chile central durante el invierno

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    Full Text Available INFLUENCE DU PHÉNOMÈNE ENSO SUR LES PRÉCIPITATIONS NEIGEUSES DANS LE CENTRE DU CHILI ANDIN AU COURS DE L’HIVER AUSTRAL. On analyse l’influence du phénomène El Niño/Oscillation du Sud (ENSO sur les précipitations nivales dans les Andes du Chili central au cours de l’hiver. Pour cela, on a utilisé l’information obtenue sur des sites spécifiques (routes de neige situées entre 30° et 38° S et les anomalies de Température de Surface de la Mer (TSM du bloc Niño 3, comme indicateur de l’importance des événements chauds ou froids dans le Pacifique équatorial central. Au nord de 35°S, l’accumulation de neige tend à être supérieure à la normale quand l’anomalie moyenne de TSM dépasse +1°C au cours de la période mai-août. Dans ce même secteur, on enregistre une précipitation inférieure à la normale les hivers caractérisés par une anomalie de TSM inférieure à -0,5°C. Dans la zone située au sud de 35° S, l’influence du phénomène ENSO sur l’accumulation de neige n’est plus significative. Se analiza la influencia del fenómeno El Niño/Oscilación del Sur (ENSO sobre la precipitación nival en los Andes de Chile central durante el invierno. Para esto, se utiliza información de rutas de nieve localizadas entre 30° y 38° S, y de anomalías de temperatura superficial del mar (TSM en la región Niño 3 como un indicador de la magnitud de los eventos cálidos y fríos en el Pacífico ecuatorial central. En la región al norte de 35° S, la acumulación de nieve durante el invierno tiende a ser superior a lo normal cuando la magnitud de la anomalía media de TSM en el periodo mayo-agosto supera +1,0° C. En este mismo sector se verifica que durante los inviernos caracterizados por una anomalía de TSM inferior a -0,5° C, suele registrarse una precipitación nival inferior a lo normal. En el sector al sur de los 35° S, la influencia del fenómeno ENSO sobre la acumulación de nieve durante el invierno no es

  2. ENSO related decadal scale climate variability from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brijker, J.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Bickert, T.; Kroon, D.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic phenomenon that affects socio-economical welfare in vast areas in the world. A continuous record of Holocene ENSO related climate variability of the Indo-Pacific Warm pool (IPWP) is constructed on the basis of stable oxygen isotopes in shells of

  3. Dietary traits of the late Early Pleistocene Bison menneri (Bovidae, Mammalia) from its type site Untermassfeld (Central Germany) and the problem of Pleistocene 'wood bison' (United States)

    van Asperen, Eline N.; Kahlke, Ralf-Dietrich


    Over the course of the Early and early Middle Pleistocene, a climatic cooling trend led to the partial opening up of landscapes in the western Palaearctic. This led to a gradual replacement of browsers by grazers, whilst some herbivore species shifted their diet towards including more grass. Wear patterns of herbivore cheek teeth can inform our understanding of the timing and extent of this change and indicate levels of dietary plasticity. One of the indicator species of the faunal turnover is the first large-sized form of bison in the Palaearctic, Bison menneri. The dental mesowear of the palaeopopulation from the species' late Early Pleistocene type site of Untermassfeld in Central Germany and the Late Pleistocene B. priscus from Taubach, both from habitat mosaics of forested habitats and more open landscapes, have a mixed feeder profile similar to that of North American wood bison, which has a distinct preference for open habitats but occasionally consumes a high amount of browse as a fall-back food. In contrast, the grazer mesowear signature of early Middle Pleistocene B. schoetensacki voigtstedtensis from Voigtstedt indicates these animals likely did not regularly feed in the densely forested area around the site. The mesowear of B. schoetensacki from Süssenborn, in a more open environment, is similar to that of extant European bison. Both Pleistocene and extant bison are grazers to mixed feeders with relatively high tolerance of a suboptimal browsing diet. None of these species can be regarded as true 'wood bison'.

  4. A metric for quantifying El Niño pattern diversity with implications for ENSO-mean state interaction (United States)

    Lemmon, Danielle E.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.


    Recent research on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon increasingly reveals the highly complex and diverse nature of ENSO variability. A method of quantifying ENSO spatial pattern uniqueness and diversity is presented, which enables (1) formally distinguishing between unique and "canonical" El Niño events, (2) testing whether historical model simulations aptly capture ENSO diversity by comparing with instrumental observations, (3) projecting future ENSO diversity using future model simulations, (4) understanding the dynamics that give rise to ENSO diversity, and (5) analyzing the associated diversity of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Here we develop a framework for measuring El Niño spatial SST pattern uniqueness and diversity for a given set of El Niño events using two indices, the El Niño Pattern Uniqueness (EPU) index and El Niño Pattern Diversity (EPD) index, respectively. By applying this framework to instrumental records, we independently confirm a recent regime shift in El Niño pattern diversity with an increase in unique El Niño event sea surface temperature patterns. However, the same regime shift is not observed in historical CMIP5 model simulations; moreover, a comparison between historical and future CMIP5 model scenarios shows no robust change in future ENSO diversity. Finally, we support recent work that asserts a link between the background cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific and changes in ENSO diversity. This robust link between an eastern Pacific cooling mode and ENSO diversity is observed not only in instrumental reconstructions and reanalysis, but also in historical and future CMIP5 model simulations.

  5. Decadal modulation of the ENSO-East Asian winter monsoon relationship by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (United States)

    Geng, Xin; Zhang, Wenjun; Stuecker, Malte F.; Liu, Peng; Jin, Fei-Fei; Tan, Guirong


    This work investigates the decadal modulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) relationship by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A stable ENSO-EAWM relationship is found during the positive AMO phase but not during the negative phase. While the impact of El Niño events on the EAWM does not depend on the AMO phase, a different picture is observed for La Niña events. The La Niña boreal winter season coincides with a strengthened EAWM during a positive AMO phase and a weakened EAWM during a negative AMO phase. We suggest that the AMO's modulating effect mainly comprises two pathways that influence ENSO's impact on the EAWM. On one hand, when La Niña coincides with a positive AMO, the warm SST anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) are amplified both in intensity and spatial extent, which favors strengthened WNP cyclonic anomalies and an enhanced EAWM. During La Niña with a negative AMO, only very weak SST anomalies occur over the WNP with reduced WNP cyclonic anomalies that are confined to the tropics, thus having little effect on the EAWM. On the other hand, an eastward-propagating Rossby wavetrain across the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia during a warm AMO phase strengthens the Siberian high and thus leads to a strengthened EAWM, while during a cold AMO phase the Siberian high is weakened, leading to a reduced EAWM. In contrast, El Niño and its associated atmospheric responses are relatively strong and stable, independent of the AMO phase. These results carry important implications to the seasonal-to-interannual predictability associated with ENSO.

  6. A New ENSO Index Derived from Satellite Measurements of Column Ozone (United States)

    Ziemke, J. R.; Chandra, S.; Oman, L. D.; Bhartia, P. K.


    Column Ozone measured in tropical latitudes from Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS), Earth Probe TOMS, solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV), and Aura ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) are used to derive an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. This index, which covers a time period from 1979 to the present, is defined as the Ozone ENSO Index (OEI) and is the first developed from atmospheric trace gas measurements. The OEI is constructed by first averaging monthly mean column ozone over two broad regions in the western and eastern Pacific and then taking their difference. This differencing yields a self-calibrating ENSO index which is independent of individual instrument calibration offsets and drifts in measurements over the long record. The combined Aura OMI and MLS ozone data confirm that zonal variability in total column ozone in the tropics caused by ENSO events lies almost entirely in the troposphere. As a result, the OEI can be derived directly from total column ozone instead of tropospheric column ozone. For clear-sky ozone measurements a +1K change in Nino 3.4 index corresponds to +2.9 Dobson Unit (DU) change in the OEI, while a +1 hPa change in SOI coincides with a -1.7DU change in the OEI. For ozone measurements under all cloud conditions these numbers are +2.4DU and -1.4 DU, respectively. As an ENSO index based upon ozone, it is potentially useful in evaluating climate models predicting long term changes in ozone and other trace gases.

  7. Eventos de tiempo severo inducidos por el ENSO en la temporada invernal cubana

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    Full Text Available ÉVÉNEMENTS MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES SÉVÈRES INDUITS PAR LES ENSO AU COURS DE LA PÉRIODE HIVERNALE À CUBA. La période hivernale à Cuba correspond généralement à la période sèche, au cours de laquelle, à l’inverse de ce qui se passe en été, on n’enregistre généralement pas de séquence pluviométrique sévère. Cependant, l’influence de l’ENSO peut activer des systèmes météorologiques de manière anormale pour des latitudes aussi basses. Il se produit alors relativement souvent des séquences météorologiques sévères de 24 à 48 heures de durée, avec l’avancée de lignes de grains, des pluies intenses, des tornades, de la grêle et des inondations dans les zones côtières. Ceci provoque des morts et de gros dégâts. Les climatologues reconnaissent l’ENSO comme la cause la plus importante de variabilité climatique inter-annuelle de la planète. Ils en décrivent et en prédisent les effets, comme les anomalies de précipitations ou de températures. Cependant on ne peut évaluer de manière plus précise ces conséquences qu’en étudiant les systèmes synoptiques induits par l’ENSO, qui sont responsables de ces excès. Cette étape est indispensable pour la mise en place d’un système d’alerte avancé requis par la Défense Civile. On montre, dans cet article, le rôle joué par le jet-stream subtropical, dans la formation de ces événements climatologiques sévères. Ainsi, l’étude des périodes hivernales affectées par un ENSO depuis 1957-58 jusqu’à 1996-97 a permis d’établir des situations types des niveaux de surface et supérieurs de l’atmosphère, associés à des événements sévères induits par l’ENSO. On présente aussi des exemples des conséquences des principaux événements. A l’aide de ces situations types, on a pu élaborer un système d’alerte avancée mis à la disposition de la Défense Civile et permettant d’effectuer des prévisions à 7 et à 10 jours. La temporada invernal cubana

  8. Tailoring wheat management to ENSO phases for increased wheat production in Paraguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa A. Ramirez-Rodrigues


    Full Text Available Reported regional wheat yields in Paraguay vary from 1 to 3 t/ha from year to year, but appear not to be correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phases. Historical weather data from two locations in representative wheat-growing regions of Paraguay, Encarnación-Itapúa and Ciudad del Este-Alto Paraná combined with crop modeling, were analyzed to optimize nitrogen (N fertilizer application rates according to the ENSO phase of a growing season. The ENSO phase of a growing season was defined based on the average of the sea surface temperature (SST anomalies in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific region for the period June–October using the El Niño region 3.0 index (Niño 3.0. Simulated average yields in Alto Paraná were higher in the drier and cooler La Niña wheat-growing seasons (average of 3.5 t/ha compared to the other phases (average of 3.2 t/ha and in Itapúa, in Neutral seasons (average of 3.8 t/ha compared to the other phases (average of 3.7 t/ha. Accordingly, optimal N fertilizer applications ranged between 20 and 60 kg N/ha between phases depending on the sowing date, soil type and initial amount of soil water content. Applying an ENSO or General Circulation Model (GCM-based forecast for ENSO-season-type specific N fertilizer applications resulted in benefits of >100 US$/ha when compared with current farmers’ practice of consistently low N fertilizer applications in Paraguay. When N management based on forecasts was compared with optimized N application without forecast, the benefits of the forecast was only up to 8 US$/ha. The ENSO-persistence-based forecast showed higher values than the GCM-based forecasts with two lead-times but lower skill. Using climate information can significantly increase current wheat yields and gross margins in Paraguay by tailoring N fertilizer applications to the Niño 3.0-defined ENSO phases, which can be forecasted with moderate skill at the beginning of the growing season.

  9. The preconditioning role of Tropical Atlantic Variability in the development of the ENSO teleconnection: implications for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall (United States)

    Giannini, A.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

    A comparison of rainfall variability in the semi-arid Brazilian Nordeste in observations and in two sets of model simulations leads to the conclusion that the evolving interaction between Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can explain two puzzling features of ENSO's impact on the Nordeste: (1) the event-to-event unpredictability of ENSO's impact; (2) the greater impact of cold rather than warm ENSO events during the past 50 years. The explanation is in the `preconditioning' role of Tropical Atlantic Variability. When, in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO, the tropical Atlantic happens to be evolving consistently with the development expected of the ENSO teleconnection, ENSO and TAV add up to force large anomalies in Nordeste rainfall. When it happens to be evolving in opposition to the canonical development of ENSO, then the net outcome is less obvious, but also less anomalous. The more frequent occurrence of tropical Atlantic conditions consistent with those that develop during a cold ENSO event, i.e. of a negative meridional sea surface temperature gradient, explains the weaker warm ENSO and stronger cold ENSO anomalies in Nordeste rainfall of the latter part of the twentieth century. Close monitoring of the evolution of the tropical Atlantic in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO should lead to an enhanced forecast potential.

  10. Tropical cyclone prediction skills - MJO and ENSO dependence in S2S data sets (United States)

    Lee, C. Y.; Camargo, S.; Vitart, F.; Sobel, A. H.; Tippett, M.


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are two important climate controls on tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The seasonal prediction skill of dynamical models is determined in large part by their accurate representations of the ENSO-TC relationship. Regarding intraseasonal TC variability, observations suggest MJO to be the primary control. Given the ongoing effort to develop dynamical seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) TC predictions, it is important to examine whether the global models, running on S2S timescales, are able to reproduce these known ENSO-TC and MJO-TC relationships, and how this ability affects forecasting skill. Results from the S2S project (from F. Vitart) suggest that global models have skill in predicting MJO phase with up to two weeks of lead time (four weeks for ECMWF). Meanwhile, our results show that, qualitatively speaking, the MJO-TC relationship in storm genesis is reasonably captured, with some models (e.g., ECMWF, BoM, NCEP, MetFr) performing better than the others. However, we also find that model skill in predicting basin-wide genesis and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) are mainly due to the models' ability to capture the climatological seasonality. Removing the seasonality significantly reduces the models' skill; even the best model (ECMWF) in the most reliable basin (western north Pacific and Atlantic) has very little skill (close to 0.1 in Brier skill score for genesis and close to 0 in rank probability skill score for ACE). This brings up the question: do any factors contribute to intraseasonal TC prediction skill other than seasonality? Is the low skill, after removing the seasonality, due to poor MJO and ENSO simulations, or to poor representation of other ENSO-TC or MJO-TC relationships, such as ENSO's impact on the storm tracks? We will quantitatively discuss the dependence of the TC prediction skill on ENSO and MJO, focusing on Western North Pacific and Atlantic, where we have sufficient

  11. Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate warming and cooling (United States)

    Wang, Yingying; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai


    The response of ENSO amplitude to climate warming and cooling is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the warming and cooling scenarios are designed by adding heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign onto the ocean surface, respectively. Results show that the warming induces an increase of the ENSO amplitude but the cooling gives rise to a decrease of the ENSO amplitude, and these changes are robust in statistics. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that the increasing (decreasing) SST tendency under climate warming (cooling) is mainly due to an enhancement (weakening) of dynamical feedback processes over the equatorial Pacific, including zonal advective (ZA) feedback, meridional advective (MA) feedback, thermocline (TH) feedback, and Ekman (EK) feedback. As the climate warms, a wind anomaly of the same magnitude across the equatorial Pacific can induce a stronger zonal current change in the east (i.e., a stronger ZA feedback), which in turn produces a greater weakening of upwelling (i.e., a stronger EK feedback) and thus a larger thermocline change (i.e., a stronger TH feedback). In response to the climate warming, in addition, the MA feedback is also strengthened due to an enhancement of the meridional SST gradient around the equator resulting from a weakening of the subtropical cells (STCs). It should be noted that the weakened STCs itself has a negative contribution to the change of the MA feedback which, however, appears to be secondary. And vice versa for the cooling case. Bjerknes linear stability (BJ) index is also evaluated for the linear stability of ENSO, with remarkably larger (smaller) BJ index found for the warming (cooling) case.

  12. ENSO Related Inter-Annual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology (United States)

    Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel


    The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Lightning data were averaged into mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases and compared to model reanalysis data. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases

  13. An ENSO beginning in the year 2000?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    Several models have been developed over the last few decades to predict the advent of new ENSO events several months in advance of the actual event. None of the models have predicted a warm event beginning by the year 2000. Positive SST anomalies...

  14. Numerical Study on Interdecadal Modulations of ENSO-related Spring Rainfall over South China by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (United States)

    MAO, J.; WU, X.


    The spatio-temporal variations of eastern China spring rainfall are identified via empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of rain-gauge (gridded) precipitation datasets for the period 1958-2013 (1920-2013). The interannual variations of the first two leading EOF modes are linked with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with this linkage being modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The EOF1 mode, characterized by predominant rainfall anomalies from the Yangtze River to North China (YNC), is more likely associated with out-of-phase PDO-ENSO events [i.e., El Niño during cold PDO (EN_CPDO) and La Niña during warm PDO (LN_WPDO)]. The sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) distributions of EN_CPDO (LN_WPDO) events induce a significant anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the western North Pacific stretching northwards to the Korean Peninsula and southern Japan, resulting in anomalous southwesterlies (northeasterlies) prevailing over eastern China and above-normal (below-normal) rainfall over YNC. In contrast, EOF2 exhibits a dipole pattern with predominantly positive rainfall anomalies over southern China along with negative anomalies over YNC, which is more likely connected to in-phase PDO-ENSO events [i.e., El Niño during warm PDO (EN_WPDO) and La Niña during cold PDO (LN_CPDO)]. EN_WPDO (LN_CPDO) events force a southwest-northeast oriented dipole-like circulation pattern leading to significant anomalous southwesterlies (northeasterlies) and above-normal (below-normal) rainfall over southern China. Numerical experiments with the CAM5 model forced by the SSTA patterns of EN_WPDO and EN_CPDO events reproduce reasonably well the corresponding anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns and spring rainfall modes over eastern China, validating the related mechanisms.

  15. Biennial-Aligned Lunisolar-Forcing of ENSO: Implications for Simplified Climate Models (United States)

    Pukite, P. R.


    By solving Laplace's tidal equations along the equatorial Pacific thermocline, assuming a delayed-differential effective gravity forcing due to a combined lunar+solar (lunisolar) stimulus, we are able to precisely match ENSO periodic variations over wide intervals. The underlying pattern is difficult to decode by conventional means such as spectral analysis, which is why it has remained hidden for so long, despite the excellent agreement in the time-domain. What occurs is that a non-linear seasonal modulation with monthly and fortnightly lunar impulses along with a biennially-aligned "see-saw" is enough to cause a physical aliasing and thus multiple folding in the frequency spectrum. So, instead of a conventional spectral tidal decomposition, we opted for a time-domain cross-validating approach to calibrate the amplitude and phasing of the lunisolar cycles. As the lunar forcing consists of three fundamental periods (draconic, anomalistic, synodic), we used the measured Earth's length-of-day (LOD) decomposed and resolved at a monthly time-scale [1] to align the amplitude and phase precisely. Even slight variations from the known values of the long-period tides will degrade the fit, so a high-resolution calibration is possible. Moreover, a narrow training segment from 1880-1920 using NINO34/SOI data is adequate to extrapolate the cycles of the past 100 years (see attached figure). To further understand the biennial impact of a yearly differential-delay, we were able to also decompose using difference equations the historical sea-level-height readings at Sydney harbor to clearly expose the ENSO behavior. Finally, the ENSO lunisolar model was validated by back-extrapolating to Unified ENSO coral proxy (UEP) records dating to 1650. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) behavior of equatorial stratospheric winds derives following a similar pattern to ENSO via the tidal equations, but with an emphasis on draconic forcing. This improvement in ENSO and QBO understanding has

  16. Analysis of the Effects of ENSO and Atmospheric Rivers on Precipitation in Los Angeles County (United States)

    Santacruz, A.; Lamb, K.


    The Winter 2016-2017 season in California was marked by substantial amounts of precipitation; this resulted in critically-low reservoirs filling up and the removal of most of California from drought status. The year prior was characterized by one of the strongest El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, though it did not produce nearly enough precipitation as the 2016-2017 season. The major contributors to the increased rainfall during the 2016-2017 season were climactic phenomenon known as atmospheric rivers (ARs), which transport water vapor through the atmosphere in narrow bands, and are known to produce extreme rain events. Determining the exact timing, landfall areas, and total precipitation amounts of ARs is currently of great interest; a recent study showed that extreme weather events are likely to increase in California in the coming years, which motivates research into how phenomenon such as ENSO and ARs play a role. Using long-term daily rain gauge data provided by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works, we compute the precipitation volume and storm count for various locations in Los Angeles County and identify anomalies. These data will then be compared with the occurrence and intensity of AR and ENSO events by using NOAA's NOI and ESRL AR data. The results can be used to provide a better grasp of extreme climactic patterns and their effects on the amount of precipitation in the region.

  17. The natural oscillation of two types of ENSO events based on analyses of CMIP5 model control runs (United States)

    Xu, Kang; Su, Jingzhi; Zhu, Congwen


    The eastern- and central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (EP- and CP-ENSO) have been found to be dominant in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and are characterized by interannual and decadal oscillation, respectively. In the present study, we defined the EP- and CP-ENSO modes by singular value decomposition (SVD) between SST and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalous fields. We evaluated the natural features of these two types of ENSO modes as simulated by the pre-industrial control runs of 20 models involved in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The results suggested that all the models show good skill in simulating the SST and SLP anomaly dipolar structures for the EP-ENSO mode, but only 12 exhibit good performance in simulating the tripolar CP-ENSO modes. Wavelet analysis suggested that the ensemble principal components in these 12 models exhibit an interannual and multi-decadal oscillation related to the EP- and CP-ENSO, respectively. Since there are no changes in external forcing in the pre-industrial control runs, such a result implies that the decadal oscillation of CP-ENSO is possibly a result of natural climate variability rather than external forcing.

  18. Are population dynamics of shorebirds affected by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) while on their non-breeding grounds in Ecuador? (United States)

    O'Hara, Patrick D.; Haase, Ben J. M.; Elner, Robert W.; Smith, Barry D.; Kenyon, Jamie K.


    species before (1992/1993-1996/1997) and after (1997/1998-1999/2000) ENSO was not significant ( F2,3787 = 1.52, p = 0.22). Anomalously warm and wet conditions associated with strong ENSO warm phases during the non-breeding season may either act directly on shorebirds (increasing metabolic demands) and/or indirectly through reductions in prey availability. Reduced mass and mass gain may explain lower survivorship, particularly in adults, which are more likely to migrate northward in the spring than are first-year birds, at least in Western Sandpipers. Our results suggest a potential mechanism selecting for life history strategies suitable for withstanding long-term fluctuating climatic cycles such as ENSO.

  19. Improvements of ENSO-monsoon relationship in CMIP5 models through statistical downscaling over India. (United States)

    Akhter, J.; Das, L.; Deb, A.


    Present study has assessed the skills of global climate models (GCMS) from coupled model inter-comparison project phase five (CMIP5) in simulating ENSO-monsoon relationships over seven homogeneous zones of India. Observational sea surface temperature (SST) data has revealed that there has been a significant negative correlation between zonal precipitation and Nino 3.4 index over North Mountainous India, North West India, North Central India, West Peninsular India and South Peninsular India. First and third principal component (PC) of zonal precipitation explaining 44.4% and 14.2% variance respectively has also shown significant anti-correlation with Nino 3.4. Analysis with CMIP5 models revealed that majority of GCMs have failed to reproduce both magnitude and phase of such relationships mainly due to poor simulation of Nino 3.4 index. Therefore, an attempt has been made to improve the results through empirical orthogonal function (EOF) based statistical downscaling of CMIP5 GCMs. To downscale Nino 3.4 index, an optimal predictor combination of PCs extracted from EOF fields of large scale GCM predictors like Geo-potential height, u and v wind, Specific and relative humidity and air temperature at pressure levels 500, 850 and 1000 hpa, mean sea level pressure and atmospheric vapor content has been utilized. Results indicated improvements of downscaled CMIP5 models in simulating ENSO-monsoon relationship for zone wise precipitation. Multi-model ensemble (MME) of downscaled GCMs has better skill than individuals GCM. Therefore, downscaled MME may be used more reliably to investigate future ENSO-monsoon relationship under various warming scenarios

  20. A synthesis of ENSO effects on drylands in Australia, North America and South America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holmgren, M.; Stapp, P.; Dickman, C.; Gracia, C.; Graham, S.


    Fundamentally, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic and oceanographic phenomenon, but it has profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Although the ecological effects of ENSO are becoming increasingly known from a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holmgren et al., 2001), their

  1. Influence of climatic teleconnections on the temporal isotopic ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    a close relation to the El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The ENSO indices ... record seems to have been caused through an atmospheric mechanism. ... temperature prior and subsequent to the year 1997. ... in the reconstruction of past climate change and suggests possible influence of climatic teleconnec-.

  2. Reduced herbivory during simulated ENSO rainy events increases native herbaceous plants in semiarid Chile

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Manrique, R.; Gutierrez, J.R.; Holmgren, M.; Squeo, F.A.


    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have profound consequences for the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. Since increased climate variability is expected to favour the invasive success of exotic species, we conducted a field experiment to study the effects that simulated rainy ENSO events in

  3. ENSO-Type Signals Recorded in the Late Cretaceous Laminated Sediments of Songliao Basin, Northeast China (United States)

    Yu, E.; Wang, C.; Hinnov, L. A.; Wu, H.


    The quasi-periodic, ca. 2-7 year El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon globally influences the inter-annual variability of temperature and precipitation. Global warming may increase the frequency of extreme ENSO events. Although the Cretaceous plate tectonic configuration was different from today, the sedimentary record suggests that ENSO-type oscillations had existed at the time of Cretaceous greenhouse conditions. Cored Cretaceous lacustrine sediments from the Songliao Basin in Northeast China (SK-1 cores from the International Continental Drilling Program) potentially offer a partially varved record of Cretaceous paleoclimate. Fourteen polished thin sections from the depth interval 1096.12-1096.53 m with an age of 84.4 Ma were analyzed by optical and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). ImageJ software was applied to extract gray scale curves from optical images at pixel resolution. We tracked minimum values of the gray scale curves to estimate the thickness of each lamina. Five sedimentary structures were recognized: flaser bedding, wavy bedding, lenticular bedding, horizontal bedding, and massive layers. The mean layer thicknesses with different sedimentary structures range from 116 to 162mm, very close to the mean sedimentation rate estimated for this sampled interval, 135mm/year, indicating that the layers bounded by pure clay lamina with the minimum gray values are varves. SEM images indicate that a varve is composed, in succession, of one lamina rich in coarse silt, one lamina rich in fine silt, one clay-rich lamina with some silt, and one clay-rich lamina. This suggests that a Cretaceous year featured four distinct depositional seasons, two of which were rainy and the others were lacking precipitation. Spectral analysis of extended intervals of the tuned gray scale curve indicates the presence of inter-annual periodicities of 2.2-2.7 yr, 3.5-6.1 year, and 10.1-14.5 year consistent with those of modern ENSO cycles and solar cycles, as well as

  4. Cyclic Markov chains with an application to an intermediate ENSO model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. Pasmanter


    Full Text Available We develop the theory of cyclic Markov chains and apply it to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO predictability problem. At the core of Markov chain modelling is a partition of the state space such that the transition rates between different state space cells can be computed and used most efficiently. We apply a partition technique, which divides the state space into multidimensional cells containing an equal number of data points. This partition leads to mathematical properties of the transition matrices which can be exploited further such as to establish connections with the dynamical theory of unstable periodic orbits. We introduce the concept of most and least predictable states. The data basis of our analysis consists of a multicentury-long data set obtained from an intermediate coupled atmosphere-ocean model of the tropical Pacific. This cyclostationary Markov chain approach captures the spring barrier in ENSO predictability and gives insight also into the dependence of ENSO predictability on the climatic state.

  5. Linear dynamical modes as new variables for data-driven ENSO forecast (United States)

    Gavrilov, Andrey; Seleznev, Aleksei; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander; Kurths, Juergen


    A new data-driven model for analysis and prediction of spatially distributed time series is proposed. The model is based on a linear dynamical mode (LDM) decomposition of the observed data which is derived from a recently developed nonlinear dimensionality reduction approach. The key point of this approach is its ability to take into account simple dynamical properties of the observed system by means of revealing the system's dominant time scales. The LDMs are used as new variables for empirical construction of a nonlinear stochastic evolution operator. The method is applied to the sea surface temperature anomaly field in the tropical belt where the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode of variability. The advantage of LDMs versus traditionally used empirical orthogonal function decomposition is demonstrated for this data. Specifically, it is shown that the new model has a competitive ENSO forecast skill in comparison with the other existing ENSO models.

  6. Pleistocene Palaeoart of Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert G. Bednarik


    Full Text Available This comprehensive overview considers the currently known Pleistocene palaeoart of Asia on a common basis, which suggests that the available data are entirely inadequate to form any cohesive synthesis about this corpus. In comparison to the attention lavished on the corresponding record available from Eurasia’s small western appendage, Europe, it is evident that Pleistocene palaeoart from the rest of the world has been severely neglected. Southern Asia, in particular, holds great promise for the study of early cognitive development of hominins, and yet this potential has remained almost entirely unexplored. Asia is suggested to be the key continent in any global synthesis of ‘art’ origins, emphasising the need for a comprehensive pan-continental research program. This is not just to counter-balance the incredible imbalance in favour of Europe, but to examine the topic of Middle Pleistocene palaeoart development effectively.

  7. A Null-hypothesis to explain the El Niño-like Pacific Decadal Variability (United States)

    Di Lorenzo, E.


    Pacific low-frequency variability (timescale > 8 year) exhibits a well-known El Niño-like pattern of basin-scale sea surface temperature, which is found in all the major modes of Pacific decadal climate. Using a set of climate model experiments and observations, we decompose the mechanisms contributing to the growth, peak and decay of the Pacific low-frequency spatial variance. We find that the El-Niño-like inter-decadal pattern is established through the combined actions of Pacific Meridional Modes (MM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Specifically, in the growing phase of the pattern, sub-tropical stochastic excitation of the MM, and its ENSO-precursor dynamics, becomes an important source of tropical low-frequency variance (e.g. red noise). Once in the tropics, ENSO amplifies and distributes this low-frequency energy in the extra-tropics through global teleconnections in the peak and decaying phases. In this stochastic red noise model of Pacific climate, the timescale of the MM/ENSO progression and extra-tropical decay (1-2 year) enhances the spatial memory of the decadal and inter-decadal El-Niño-like pattern.

  8. Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world (United States)

    Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Dettinger, Michael D.; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Winsemius, Hessel C.


    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions. PMID:25331867

  9. Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world (United States)

    Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, B; Kummu, M.; Dettinger, Mike; Sperna Weiland, F.C; Winsemius, H.C


    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions.

  10. Improved predictability of droughts over southern Africa using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and ENSO (United States)

    Manatsa, Desmond; Mushore, Terrence; Lenouo, Andre


    The provision of timely and reliable climate information on which to base management decisions remains a critical component in drought planning for southern Africa. In this observational study, we have not only proposed a forecasting scheme which caters for timeliness and reliability but improved relevance of the climate information by using a novel drought index called the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), instead of the traditional precipitation only based index, the standardised precipitation index (SPI). The SPEI which includes temperature and other climatic factors in its construction has a more robust connection to ENSO than the SPI. Consequently, the developed ENSO-SPEI prediction scheme can provide quantitative information about the spatial extent and severity of predicted drought conditions in a way that reflects more closely the level of risk in the global warming context of the sub region. However, it is established that the ENSO significant regional impact is restricted only to the period December-March, implying a revisit to the traditional ENSO-based forecast scheme which essentially divides the rainfall season into the two periods, October to December and January to March. Although the prediction of ENSO events has increased with the refinement of numerical models, this work has demonstrated that the prediction of drought impacts related to ENSO is also a reality based only on observations. A large temporal lag is observed between the development of ENSO phenomena (typically in May of the previous year) and the identification of regional SPEI defined drought conditions. It has been shown that using the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum's (SARCOF) traditional 3-month averaged Nino 3.4 SST index (June to August) as a predictor does not have an added advantage over using only the May SST index values. In this regard, the extended lead time and improved skill demonstrated in this study could immensely benefit

  11. ENSO surface shortwave radiation forcing over the tropical Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. G. Pavlakis


    Full Text Available We have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the downward shortwave radiation (DSR at the surface of the Earth during ENSO events for a 21-year period over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40° S–40° N, 90° E–75° W. The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database, reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters, and aerosol parameters from GADS (acronyms explained in main text. A clear anti-correlation was found between the downward shortwave radiation anomaly (DSR-A time-series, in the region 7° S–5° N 160° E–160° W located west of the Niño-3.4 region, and the Niño-3.4 index time-series. In this region where the highest in absolute value DSR anomalies are observed, the mean DSR anomaly values range from −45 Wm−2 during El Niño episodes to +40 Wm−2 during La Niña events. Within the Niño-3.4 region no significant DSR anomalies are observed during the cold ENSO phase in contrast to the warm ENSO phase. A high correlation was also found over the western Pacific (10° S–5° N, 120–140° E, where the mean DSR anomaly values range from +20 Wm−2 to −20 Wm−2 during El Niño and La Niña episodes, respectively. There is also convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downward shortwave radiation anomaly in the off-equatorial western Pacific region 7–15° N 150–170° E, precedes the Niño-3.4 index time-series by about 7 months and the pattern of this anomaly is indicative of ENSO operating through the mechanism of the western Pacific oscillator. Thus, the downward shortwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to assess whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail.

  12. A synthesis of ENSO effects on drylands in Australia, North America and South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Holmgren


    Full Text Available Fundamentally, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO is a climatic and oceanographic phenomenon, but it has profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Although the ecological effects of ENSO are becoming increasingly known from a wide range of terrestrial ecosystems (Holmgren et al., 2001, their impacts have been more intensively studied in arid and semiarid systems. In this brief communication, we summarize the main conclusions of a recent symposium on the effects of ENSO in these ecosystems, which was convened as part of the First Alexander von Humboldt International Conference on the El Niño Phenomenon and its Global Impact, in Guayaquil, Ecuador, from 16–20 May 2005. Participants in the symposium shared results and perspectives from research conducted in North and South America and Australia, regions where the ecological effects of ENSO have been studied in depth. Although the reports covered a wide array of organisms and ecological systems (Fig. 1, a recurring theme was the strong increase in rainfall associated with ENSO events in dry ecosystems (during the El Niño phase of the oscillation in the Americas and the La Niña phase in Australia. Because inter-annual variability in precipitation is such a strong determinant of productivity in arid and semiarid ecosystems, increased ENSO rainfall is crucial for plant recruitment, productivity and diversity in these ecosystems. Several long-term studies show that this pulse in primary productivity causes a subsequent increase in herbivores, followed by an increase in carnivores, with consequences for changes in ecosystem structure and functioning that can be quite complex.

  13. Characterization of extreme flood and drought events in Singapore and investigation of their relationships with ENSO (United States)

    Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan


    Flood and drought are hydrologic extreme events that have significant impact on human and natural systems. Characterization of flood and drought in terms of their start, duration and strength, and investigation of the impact of natural climate variability (i.e., ENSO) and anthropogenic climate change on them can help decision makers to facilitate adaptions to mitigate potential enormous economic costs. To date, numerous studies in this area have been conducted, however, they are primarily focused on extra-tropical regions. Therefore, this study presented a detailed framework to characterize flood and drought events in a tropical urban city-state (i.e., Singapore), based on daily data from 26 precipitation stations. Flood and drought events are extracted from standardized precipitation anomalies from monthly to seasonal time scales. Frequency, duration and magnitude of flood and drought at all the stations are analyzed based on crossing theory. In addition, spatial variation of flood and drought characteristics in Singapore is investigated using ordinary kriging method. Lastly, the impact of ENSO condition on flood and drought characteristics is analyzed using regional regression method. The results show that Singapore can be prone to extreme flood and drought events at both monthly and seasonal time scales. ENSO has significant influence on flood and drought characteristics in Singapore, but mainly during the South West Monsoon season. During the El Niño phase, drought can become more extreme. The results have implications for water management practices in Singapore.

  14. Impacts of the ENSO Modoki and other Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate-Drivers on African Rainfall. (United States)

    Preethi, B; Sabin, T P; Adedoyin, J A; Ashok, K


    The study diagnoses the relative impacts of the four known tropical Indo-Pacific drivers, namely, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ENSO Modoki, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Indian Ocean Basin-wide mode (IOBM) on African seasonal rainfall variability. The canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki are in general associated with anomalous reduction (enhancement) of rainfall in southern (northern) hemispheric regions during March-May season. However, both the El Niño flavours anomalously reduce the northern hemispheric rainfall during June-September. Interestingly, during boreal spring and summer, in many regions, the Indian Ocean drivers have influences opposite to those from tropical Pacific drivers. On the other hand, during the October-December season, the canonical El Niño and/or positive IOD are associated with an anomalous enhancement of rainfall in the Eastern Africa, while the El Niño Modoki events are associated with an opposite impact. In addition to the Walker circulation changes, the Indo-Pacific drivers influence the African rainfall through modulating jet streams. During boreal summer, the El Niño Modoki and canonical El Niño (positive IOD) tend to weaken (strengthen) the tropical easterly jet, and result in strengthening (weakening) and southward shift of African easterly jet. This anomalously reduces (enhances) rainfall in the tropical north, including Sahelian Africa.

  15. ENSO Modulations due to Interannual Variability of Freshwater Forcing and Ocean Biology-induced Heating in the Tropical Pacific. (United States)

    Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Kang, Xianbiao; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Zhanggui; Feng, Licheng


    Recent studies have identified clear climate feedbacks associated with interannual variations in freshwater forcing (FWF) and ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) in the tropical Pacific. The interrelationships among the related anomaly fields are analyzed using hybrid coupled model (HCM) simulations to illustrate their combined roles in modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The HCM-based supporting experiments are performed to isolate the related feedbacks, with interannually varying FWF and OBH being represented individually or collectively, which allows their effects to be examined in a clear way. It is demonstrated that the interannual freshwater forcing enhances ENSO variability and slightly prolongs the simulated ENSO period, while the interannual OBH reduces ENSO variability and slightly shortens the ENSO period, with their feedback effects tending to counteract each other.

  16. Re-evaluating the resource potential of lomas fog oasis environments for Preceramic hunter-gatherers under past ENSO modes on the south coast of Peru (United States)

    Beresford-Jones, David; Pullen, Alexander G.; Whaley, Oliver Q.; Moat, Justin; Chauca, George; Cadwallader, Lauren; Arce, Susana; Orellana, Alfonso; Alarcón, Carmela; Gorriti, Manuel; Maita, Patricia K.; Sturt, Fraser; Dupeyron, Agathe; Huaman, Oliver; Lane, Kevin J.; French, Charles


    Lomas - ephemeral seasonal oases sustained by ocean fogs - were critical to ancient human ecology on the desert Pacific coast of Peru: one of humanity's few independent hearths of agriculture and "pristine" civilisation. The role of climate change since the Late Pleistocene in determining productivity and extent of past lomas ecosystems has been much debated. Here we reassess the resource potential of the poorly studied lomas of the south coast of Peru during the long Middle Pre-ceramic period (c. 8000-4500 BP): a period critical in the transition to agriculture, the onset of modern El Niño Southern Oscillation ('ENSO') conditions, and eustatic sea-level rise and stabilisation and beach progradation. Our method combines vegetation survey and herbarium collection with archaeological survey and excavation to make inferences about both Preceramic hunter-gatherer ecology and the changed palaeoenvironments in which it took place. Our analysis of newly discovered archaeological sites - and their resource context - show how lomas formations defined human ecology until the end of the Middle Preceramic Period, thereby corroborating recent reconstructions of ENSO history based on other data. Together, these suggest that a five millennia period of significantly colder seas on the south coast induced conditions of abundance and seasonal predictability in lomas and maritime ecosystems, that enabled Middle Preceramic hunter-gatherers to reduce mobility by settling in strategic locations at the confluence of multiple eco-zones at the river estuaries. Here the foundations of agriculture lay in a Broad Spectrum Revolution that unfolded, not through population pressure in deteriorating environments, but rather as an outcome of resource abundance.

  17. Vegetation anomalies associated with the ENSO phenomenon in the Cauca river valley, Colombia

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    J. M. Valencia


    Full Text Available The main factors affecting the production and yield of sugarcane are variety, agronomic management, soil type and climate, of which the first three there is some control, while the climate is one factor of which you cannot have any control, therefore, it should be monitored. Colombia, being located in the equatorial pacific, is affected by two atmospheric oceanic phenomena known as “El Niño” and “La Niña”, which make up the climatic phenomenon of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation and affect the quantity and the number of days with rainfall and influences the production of sugarcane. The objective of this work is to identify spatially and temporally the zones with greater and lower impact of the ENSO phenomenon in the cultivation of sugarcane in Colombia through the use of the Standard Vegetation Index (SVI and the Rainfall Anomally Index (RAI using EVI/MODIS images and precipitation data from meteorological stations on a quarterly basis for the period 2000-2015. A similar trend was found between both indices in the “El Niño” and “Neutral” seasons, while in the “La Niña” season the RAI tended to rise while the SVI decreased when the RAI was very high, this tendency being much more marked in areas with floods caused by the overflow of the main rivers. In addition, a comparison was made between the SVI index and a productivity anomaly index (IAP, finding a direct correlation between both (R2 = 0.4, p<0.001. This work showed that through the use of vegetation indexes, a temporal analysis of the impact of climate on an agricultural crop can be carried out, especially with ENSO conditions.

  18. Pleistocene Paleoart of Australia

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    Robert G. Bednarik


    Full Text Available Pleistocene rock art is abundant in Australia, but has so far received only limited attention. Instead there has been a trend, begun over a century ago, to search for presumed depictions of extinct megafauna and the tracks of such species. All these notions have been discredited, however, and the current evidence suggests that figurative depiction was introduced only during the Holocene, never reaching Tasmania. Nevertheless, some Australian rock art has been attributed to the Pleistocene by direct dating methods, and its nature implies that a significant portion of the surviving corpus of rock art may also be of such age. In particular much of Australian cave art is of the Ice Age, or appears to be so, and any heavily weathered or patinated petroglyphs on particularly hard rocks are good candidates for Pleistocene antiquity. On the other hand, there is very limited evidence of mobiliary paleoart of such age in Australia.

  19. Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability (United States)

    Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook


    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.

  20. ENSO Effect on East Asian Tropical Cyclone Landfall via Changes in Tracks and Genesis in a Statistical Model (United States)

    Yonekura, Emmi; Hall, Timothy M.


    Improvements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. The model is based on the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database of TC observations for 1945-2007 and employs local regression of TC formation rates and track increments on the Nino-3.4 index and seasonally varying climate parameters. The main improvements are the inclusion of ENSO dependence in the track propagation and accounting for seasonality in both genesis and tracks. A comparison of simulations of the 1945-2007 period with observations concludes that the model updates improve the skill of this model in simulating TCs. Changes in TC genesis and tracks are analyzed separately and cumulatively in simulations of stationary extreme ENSO states. ENSO effects on regional (100-km scale) landfall are attributed to changes in genesis and tracks. The effect of ENSO on genesis is predominantly a shift in genesis location from the southeast in El Nino years to the northwest in La Nina years, resulting in higher landfall rates for the East Asian coast during La Nina. The effect of ENSO on track propagation varies seasonally and spatially. In the peak activity season (July-October), there are significant changes in mean tracks with ENSO. Landfall-rate changes from genesis- and track-ENSO effects in the Philippines cancel out, while coastal segments of Vietnam, China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan show enhanced La Nina-year increases.

  1. Massive bleaching of coral reefs induced by the 2010 ENSO, Puerto Cabello, Venezuela. (United States)

    del Mónaco, Carlos; Haiek, Gerard; Narciso, Samuel; Galindo, Miguel


    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has generated global coral massive bleaching. The aim of this work was to evaluate the massive bleaching of coral reefs in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela derived from ENSO 2010. We evaluated the bleaching of reefs at five localities both at three and five meter depth. The coral cover and densities of colonies were estimated. We recorded living coral cover, number and diameter of bleached and non-bleached colonies of each coral species. The colonies were classified according to the proportion of bleached area. Satellite images (Modis Scar) were analyzed for chlorophyll-a concentration and temperature in August, September, October and November from 2008-2010. Precipitation, wind speed and air temperature information was evaluated in meteorological data for 2009 and 2010. A total of 58.3% of colonies, belonging to 11 hexacoral species, were affected and the greatest responses were observed in Colpophyllia natans, Montastraea annularis and Montastraeafaveolata. The most affected localities were closer to the mainland and had a bleached proportion up to 62.73+/-36.55%, with the highest proportion of affected colonies, whereas the farthest locality showed 20.25+/-14.00% bleached and the smallest proportion. The salinity in situ varied between 30 and 33ppm and high levels of turbidity were observed. According to the satellite images, in 2010 the surface water temperature reached 31 degree C in August, September and October, and resulted higher than those registered in 2008 and 2009. Regionally, chlorophyll values were higher in 2010 than in 2008 and 2009. The meteorological data indicated that precipitation in November 2010 was three times higher than in November 2009. Massive coral bleaching occurred due to a three month period of high temperatures followed by one month of intense ENSO-associated precipitation. However, this latter factor was likely the trigger because of the bleaching gradient observed.

  2. Lethal interpersonal violence in the Middle Pleistocene.

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    Nohemi Sala

    Full Text Available Evidence of interpersonal violence has been documented previously in Pleistocene members of the genus Homo, but only very rarely has this been posited as the possible manner of death. Here we report the earliest evidence of lethal interpersonal violence in the hominin fossil record. Cranium 17 recovered from the Sima de los Huesos Middle Pleistocene site shows two clear perimortem depression fractures on the frontal bone, interpreted as being produced by two episodes of localized blunt force trauma. The type of injuries, their location, the strong similarity of the fractures in shape and size, and the different orientations and implied trajectories of the two fractures suggest they were produced with the same object in face-to-face interpersonal conflict. Given that either of the two traumatic events was likely lethal, the presence of multiple blows implies an intention to kill. This finding shows that the lethal interpersonal violence is an ancient human behavior and has important implications for the accumulation of bodies at the site, supporting an anthropic origin.

  3. Lethal interpersonal violence in the Middle Pleistocene. (United States)

    Sala, Nohemi; Arsuaga, Juan Luis; Pantoja-Pérez, Ana; Pablos, Adrián; Martínez, Ignacio; Quam, Rolf M; Gómez-Olivencia, Asier; Bermúdez de Castro, José María; Carbonell, Eudald


    Evidence of interpersonal violence has been documented previously in Pleistocene members of the genus Homo, but only very rarely has this been posited as the possible manner of death. Here we report the earliest evidence of lethal interpersonal violence in the hominin fossil record. Cranium 17 recovered from the Sima de los Huesos Middle Pleistocene site shows two clear perimortem depression fractures on the frontal bone, interpreted as being produced by two episodes of localized blunt force trauma. The type of injuries, their location, the strong similarity of the fractures in shape and size, and the different orientations and implied trajectories of the two fractures suggest they were produced with the same object in face-to-face interpersonal conflict. Given that either of the two traumatic events was likely lethal, the presence of multiple blows implies an intention to kill. This finding shows that the lethal interpersonal violence is an ancient human behavior and has important implications for the accumulation of bodies at the site, supporting an anthropic origin.

  4. ENSO-Based Index Insurance: Approach and Peru Flood Risk Management Application (United States)

    Khalil, A. F.; Kwon, H.; Lall, U.; Miranda, M. J.; Skees, J. R.


    Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable, and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations data are inadequate to develop an index due to short time-series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here, ENSO related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the departments of Peru -- Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions (MFIs) to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods, but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many micro-enterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data is variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (a) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall; (b) the potential for clustering of payoffs; (c) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season; and (d) evidence for climate change or non-stationarity in the flood exceedance probability from the long ENSO record. Finally, prospects for

  5. Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific. (United States)

    Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L


    Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance of the dominant member of the pelagic community, an endemic subspecies of zooxanthellate jellyfish, is temperature associated. These results have broad relevance because the lake: (i) illustrates an ENSO signal that is partly obscured in surrounding semi-enclosed lagoon waters and, therefore, (ii) may provide a model system for studying the effects of climate change on community evolution and cnidarian-zooxanthellae symbioses, which (iii) should be traceable throughout the Holocene because the lake harbours a high quality sediment record; the sediment record should (iv) provide a sensitive and regionally unique record of Holocene climate relevant to predicting ENSO responses to future global climate change and, finally, (v) seawater lake ecosystems elsewhere in the Pacific may hold similar potential for past, present, and predictive measurements of climate variation and ecosystem response.

  6. The late Middle Pleistocene hominin fossil record of eastern Asia: synthesis and review. (United States)

    Bae, Christopher J


    Traditionally, Middle Pleistocene hominin fossils that cannot be allocated to Homo erectus sensu lato or modern H. sapiens have been assigned to different specific taxa. For example, in eastern Asia, these hominin fossils have been classified as archaic, early, or premodern H. sapiens. An increasing number of Middle Pleistocene hominin fossils are currently being assigned to H. heidelbergensis. This is particularly the case for the African and European Middle Pleistocene hominin fossil record. There have been suggestions that perhaps the eastern Asian late Middle Pleistocene hominins can also be allocated to the H. heidelbergensis hypodigm. In this article, I review the current state of the late Middle Pleistocene hominin fossil record from eastern Asia and examine the various arguments for assigning these hominins to the different specific taxa. The two primary conclusions drawn from this review are as follows: 1) little evidence currently exists in the eastern Asian Middle Pleistocene hominin fossil record to support their assignment to H. heidelbergensis; and 2) rather than add to the growing list of hominin fossil taxa by using taxonomic names like H. daliensis for northeast Asian fossils and H. mabaensis for Southeast Asian fossils, it is better to err on the side of caution and continue to use the term archaic H. sapiens to represent all of these hominin fossils. What should be evident from this review is the need for an increase in the quality and quantity of the eastern Asian hominin fossil data set. Fortunately, with the increasing number of large-scale multidisciplinary paleoanthropological field and laboratory research projects in eastern Asia, the record is quickly becoming better understood. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  7. Influence of Plio-Pleistocene basin hydrology on the Turkana hominin enamel carbonate δ(18)O values. (United States)

    Quinn, Rhonda L


    Stable oxygen isotopes of hominin enamel carbonate (δ(18)OEC) provide a window into aspects of past drinking behavior and diet, body size, breastfeeding and weaning, mobility, and paleoclimate. It is tempting to compare all hominins across time and space in order to gauge species-level adaptations to changing environments and niche separation between those living sympatrically. Basinal, sub-basinal, and micro-environmental differences, however, may exert an influence on variation in enamel carbonate isotopic values that must be reconciled before hominin species across Africa can be meaningfully compared. Plio-Pleistocene Turkana hominin δ(18)OEC values show a considerable spread, potentially revealing many intrinsic and extrinsic contributing factors operating on different scales. In this study, I examine Turkana hominin δ(18)OEC values relative to identity (taxon, tooth type and number, body size of taxon), dietary (δ(13)C value, Turkana coeval and modern mammalian δ(18)OEC values), and contextual (time, depositional environment) information of each specimen and collection locality and discuss various potential influences. Turkana hominin δ(18)OEC values may primarily reflect differences in imbibed water sources (lake vs. river) as a function of evolving basin hydrology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model (United States)

    Williamson, Mark S.; Collins, Mat; Drijfhout, Sybren S.; Kahana, Ron; Mecking, Jennifer V.; Lenton, Timothy M.


    We look at changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a high-resolution eddy-permitting climate model experiment in which the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) is switched off using freshwater hosing. The ENSO mode is shifted eastward and its period becomes longer and more regular when the AMOC is off. The eastward shift can be attributed to an anomalous eastern Ekman transport in the mean equatorial Pacific ocean state. Convergence of this transport deepens the thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific and increases the temperature anomaly relaxation time, causing increased ENSO period. The anomalous Ekman transport is caused by a surface northerly wind anomaly in response to the meridional sea surface temperature dipole that results from switching the AMOC off. In contrast to a previous study with an earlier version of the model, which showed an increase in ENSO amplitude in an AMOC off experiment, here the amplitude remains the same as in the AMOC on control state. We attribute this difference to variations in the response of decreased stochastic forcing in the different models, which competes with the reduced damping of temperature anomalies. In the new high-resolution model, these effects approximately cancel resulting in no change in amplitude.

  9. Macro fossils vegetable in Palmar formation (later pleistocene) in Entre Rios - Argentina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramos, R.; Brea, M.; Krohling, D.


    This work is about the macro fossil knowledge preserved like wood fossils in the El Palmar Formation (Late Pleistocene) from a systematic - anatomical as well as paleoecological and paleoclimate point of view.The paleo Flora comes from various fossil located in the province of Entre Rios - Argentina

  10. A new fossil peccary from the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary of the eastern Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico (United States)

    Stinnesbeck, Sarah R.; Frey, Eberhard; Stinnesbeck, Wolfgang; Avíles Olguín, Jeronimo; Zell, Patrick; Terrazas Mata, Alejandro; Benavente Sanvicente, Martha; González González, Arturo; Rojas Sandoval, Carmen; Acevez Nuñez, Eugenio


    Here we describe the left mandibular ramus of a fossil peccary from the submerged karst cave system in the southeastern Mexican state of Quintana Roo. The specimen, which was discovered in the Muknal cave northwest of Tulúm, is a new genus and species of peccary termed Muknalia minima. The taxon likely dates from the latest Pleistocene and differs significantly from all extant peccaries and their Pleistocene relatives by a concave notch at the caudal edge of the mandibular ramus and prominent ventrally directed angular process. These diagnostic osteological differences suggest that the masticatory apparatus differed from all other peccaries, which may hint to an ecological isolation on the late Pleistocene Yucatán Peninsula.

  11. Imavere Sawmill is Stora Ensos Jewel in the Region / Seppo Vainio ; interv. Toivo Tänavsuu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Vainio, Seppo


    Skandinaavia metsanduskontserni Stora Enso Timberi tegevuse juht Baltikumis vastab küsimustele, mis puudutavad Eesti suurima metsatööstuse Sylvesteri ostu 2003. aastal, Baltikumi üksuste osa Stora Enso tegevuses, Imavere saeveski valimist aasta välisinvestoriks. Vt. samas: Imavere saeveski eile ja täna. Tabel: "Välisinvestor 2004" nominendid

  12. Size variation in Middle Pleistocene humans. (United States)

    Arsuaga, J L; Carretero, J M; Lorenzo, C; Gracia, A; Martínez, I; Bermúdez de Castro, J M; Carbonell, E


    It has been suggested that European Middle Pleistocene humans, Neandertals, and prehistoric modern humans had a greater sexual dimorphism than modern humans. Analysis of body size variation and cranial capacity variation in the large sample from the Sima de los Huesos site in Spain showed instead that the sexual dimorphism is comparable in Middle Pleistocene and modern populations.

  13. Assessing probabilistic predictions of ENSO phase and intensity from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Ranganathan, Meghana; L'Heureux, Michelle; Barnston, Anthony G.; DelSole, Timothy


    Here we examine the skill of three, five, and seven-category monthly ENSO probability forecasts (1982-2015) from single and multi-model ensemble integrations of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project. Three-category forecasts are typical and provide probabilities for the ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña or neutral). Additional forecast categories indicate the likelihood of ENSO conditions being weak, moderate or strong. The level of skill observed for differing numbers of forecast categories can help to determine the appropriate degree of forecast precision. However, the dependence of the skill score itself on the number of forecast categories must be taken into account. For reliable forecasts with same quality, the ranked probability skill score (RPSS) is fairly insensitive to the number of categories, while the logarithmic skill score (LSS) is an information measure and increases as categories are added. The ignorance skill score decreases to zero as forecast categories are added, regardless of skill level. For all models, forecast formats and skill scores, the northern spring predictability barrier explains much of the dependence of skill on target month and forecast lead. RPSS values for monthly ENSO forecasts show little dependence on the number of categories. However, the LSS of multimodel ensemble forecasts with five and seven categories show statistically significant advantages over the three-category forecasts for the targets and leads that are least affected by the spring predictability barrier. These findings indicate that current prediction systems are capable of providing more detailed probabilistic forecasts of ENSO phase and amplitude than are typically provided.

  14. Is ENSO related to 2015 Easter Star Capsized on the Yangtze River of China? (United States)

    Xie, P.


    Natural disasters have profound effects on community security and economic damage of China's Hubei province. In June 1st, 2015, a cruise ship, Easter Star, capsized on Yangtze River in Hubei province with 442 died. What reason gives rise to such strong convection causing ship sunk? Based on the wind disasters of Hubei province happened in 1963-2015, this study analyzes their features bytime-series regression, and correlates them to global El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The compared results demonstrated that the wind disasters shown an increasing tendency. There are two peaks corresponding to the strongest ENSO peaks during the past 50 years; each peak lasts two-three years. The facts demonstrated an essential linear relation between the ENSO phenomena and wind disasters in Hubei province. 2015 Easter Star capsized happened at current El Niño event in 2014-2015. We also observed that the historical wind disasters appeared in seasonal variation. Over 90% events concentrated in spring and summer; very few events happened in autumn and winter. Moreover, the disasters depend on the geographic conditions. Most disasters concentrated in four zones, named as Xingshan-Baokang, Xuanen, Wufeng-Yichang, Jingzhou-Gongan, in which Xingshan and Changyang are the two most density of zones. Yangtze River provides an air flowing conduct for strong convective winds. It can be concluded that the strong convection causing 2015 Easter Star capsized is related to current global ENSO phenomenon.Keywords: ENSO, wind disaster, time-series regression analysis, Easter Star, Yangtze River, Hubei Province,

  15. Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific


    Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L


    Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance...

  16. How Ocean Color Influences the Interplay Between Annual and Interannual Tropical Pacific Variability (United States)

    Hammann, A. C.; Gnanadesikan, A.


    While the basic mechanisms responsible for ENSO have long been known, many details still evade our understanding. Since the behavior of the real climate system appears to be highly sensitive to such details, however, our ability to model, let alone predict it with any confidence has so far been rather restricted. Not only can small perturbations in many state variables lead to strongly amplified responses, but also do spatial and temporal scales of variability rarely occur in isolation from each other. Both points are born out in the study by Anderson et al. (2009), who removed surface chlorophyll in different regions of the tropical (but mostly off-equatorial) Pacific in a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land-ice model. Different removal patterns lead to large differences in the amplitudes of both ENSO and the equatorial annual cycle. Anderson et al.’s analysis focuses on ENSO and reveals that the transmission of off-equatorial perturbations to the equator happens mainly through a changed atmospheric response to SST anomalies. Here, we analyze the same data with respect to the annual cycle and how it interacts with ENSO. Guilyardi (2006) reports that observations and models alike show a zero-sum-type behavior of annual and ENSO-scale variability; increased spectral power in the annual band means decreased power in the ENSO band and vice versa. This is not the case for the different patterns of chlorophyll removal in our model, and hence it appears that this removal changes a fundamental part of its mean state. The dynamics of the annual cycle are likely influenced by oceanic meridional temperature advection, which provides another possible route for off-to-equatorial signal propagation. A common aspect of the tropical annual cycle in most coupled climate models is the presence of a double ITCZ instead of a single north-shifted one. Even though this appears to be unrelated to (albeit influenced by) the changes in ocean color, our model exhibits a much improved

  17. Comparative Study of the Effects of ENSO Phenomenon (El Niño, La Niña on Temperature and Precipitation of Mashhad

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    vajiheh mohammadi sabet


    Full Text Available Introduction: The Southern Oscillation is a large scale phenomenon that changes the Normal oscillating air pressure on both sides of the Pacific Ocean. It disrupted the normal conditions and the patterns of temperature and precipitation change in the nearby region and other regions of the world. This phenomenon is caused by changing the water slope in the Pacific Ocean between Peru (northwestern South America and Northern Australia (about Indonesia and Malaysia. ENSO phenomenon is formed of Elnino (warm state and La Niña (cold state. There is high pressure system in the East and low pressure system in the West Pacific Ocean in normal conditions (Walker cycle. The trade winds blow from East to West with high intensity. ENSO start when the trade winds and temperature and pressure balance on both sides of the PacificOcean change. High pressure will form in the west and low pressure will form in the East. As a result, west will have high and east will have low rainfall. Temperature will change at these two locations. Enso longs about 6 to 18 months. This research investigated the impact of ENSO on monthly precipitation and temperature of Mashhad.The results showed that temperature and rainfall have a good relation with ENSO.This relation occurs in 0-5 month lag. Materials and Methods: The severity of ENSO phenomenon is known by an index which is called ENSO index. The index is the anomaly of sea surface temperature in the Pacific. The long-term temperature and precipitation data of Mashhad selected and analyzed. The Rainfall has no trend but temperature has trend. The trend of temperature modeled by MARS regression and trend was removed.The rainfall data changed to standard and temperature changed to anomaly for comparison with ENSO index. The 2016 annual and monthly temperature of Mashhad is not available. The 2016 Annual temperature was forecasted by ARMA (1,1 model. Then this forecast disaggregated to monthly temperature. For each period of

  18. Revisiting Cholera-Climate Teleconnections in the Native Homeland: ENSO and other Extremes through the Regional Hydroclimatic Drivers (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.


    Cholera is a global disease, with significantly large outbreaks occurring since the 1990s, notably in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and recently in Haiti, in the Caribbean. Critical knowledge gaps remain in the understanding of the annual recurrence in endemic areas and the nature of epidemic outbreaks, especially those that follow extreme hydroclimatic events. Teleconnections with large-scale climate phenomena affecting regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera dynamics remain largely unexplained. For centuries, the Bengal delta region has been strongly influenced by the asymmetric availability of water in the rivers Ganges and the Brahmaputra. As these two major rivers are known to have strong contrasting affects on local cholera dynamics in the region, we argue that the role of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), or other phenomena needs to be interpreted in the context of the seasonal role of individual rivers and subsequent impact on local environmental processes, not as a teleconnection having a remote and unified effect. We present a modified hypothesis that the influences of large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO and IOD on Bengal cholera can be explicitly identified and incorporated through regional scale hydroclimatic drivers. Here, we provide an analytical review of the literature addressing cholera and climate linkages and present hypotheses, based on recent evidence, and quantification on the role of regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera. We argue that the seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature, and resulting river discharge in the GBM basin region during ENSO and IOD events have a dominant combined effect on the endemic persistence and the epidemic vulnerability to cholera outbreaks in spring and fall seasons, respectively, that is stronger than the effect of localized hydrological and socio-economic sensitivities in Bangladesh. In addition, systematic identification of underlying seasonal

  19. Pollen analyses of Pleistocene hyaena coprolites from Montenegro and Serbia

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    Argant Jacqueline


    Full Text Available The results of pollen analyses of hyaena coprolites from the Early Pleistocene cave of Trlica in northern Montenegro and the Late Pleistocene cave of Baranica in southeast Serbia are described. The Early Pleistocene Pachycrocuta brevirostris, and the Late Pleistocene Crocuta spelaea are coprolite-producing species. Although the pollen concentration was rather low, the presented analyses add considerably to the much-needed knowledge of the vegetation of the central Balkans during the Pleistocene. Pollen extracted from a coprolite from the Baranica cave indicates an open landscape with the presence of steppe taxa, which is in accordance with the recorded conditions and faunal remains. Pollen analysis of the Early Pleistocene samples from Trlica indicate fresh and temperate humid climatic conditions, as well as the co-existence of several biotopes which formed a mosaic landscape in the vicinity of the cave.

  20. Fossils mollusc asemblage found at Zagarzazu, marine Pleistocene, Uruguay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rojas, A. . E mail:


    There are presented the results of the paleoecological analysis of the mollusc assemblage found at Zagarzazu, Colonia department. The fossils are well preserved, arranged in thin shell-beds with some specimens in life position. The assemblage is indicative of higher temperatures than present, and a strong marine influence. It is important to stress that new thermophilic molluscs for the marine Quaternary were found and that this locality represents a new Pleistocene marine record in Uruguay [es

  1. Impacts of a Pinatubo-size volcanic eruption on ENSO

    KAUST Repository

    Predybaylo, Evgeniya


    Observations and model simulations of the climate responses to strong explosive low-latitude volcanic eruptions suggest a significant increase in the likelihood of El Niño during the eruption and posteruption years, though model results have been inconclusive and have varied in magnitude and even sign. In this study, we test how this spread of responses depends on the initial phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eruption year and on the eruption\\'s seasonal timing. We employ the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 global coupled general circulation model to investigate the impact of the Pinatubo 1991 eruption, assuming that in 1991 ENSO would otherwise be in central or eastern Pacific El Niño, La Niña, or neutral phases. We obtain statistically significant El Niño responses in a year after the eruption for all cases except La Niña, which shows no response in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The eruption has a weaker impact on eastern Pacific El Niños than on central Pacific El Niños. We find that the ocean dynamical thermostat and (to a lesser extent) wind changes due to land-ocean temperature gradients are the main feedbacks affecting El Niño development after the eruption. The El Niño responses to eruptions occurring in summer are more pronounced than for winter and spring eruptions. That the climate response depends on eruption season and initial ENSO phase may help to reconcile apparent inconsistencies among previous studies.

  2. Effect of Modulation of ENSO by Decadal and Multidecadal Ocean-Atmospheric Oscillations on Continental US Streamflows (United States)

    Singh, S.; Abebe, A.; Srivastava, P.; Chaubey, I.


    Evaluation of the influences of individual and coupled oceanic-atmospheric oscillations on streamflow at a regional scale in the United States is the focus of this study. The main climatic oscillations considered in this study are: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Unimpacted or minimally impacted by water management streamflow data from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) were used in this study. Two robust and novel non-parametric tests, namely, the rank based partial least square (PLS) and the Joint Rank Fit (JRFit) procedures were used to identify the individual and coupled effect of oscillations on streamflow across continental U.S. (CONUS), respectively. Moreover, the interactive effects of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal cycles were tested and quantified using the JRFit interaction test. The analysis of ENSO indicated higher streamflows during La Niña phase compared to the El Niño phase in Northwest, Northeast and the lower part of Ohio Valley while the opposite occurs for rest of the climatic regions in US. Two distinct climate regions (Northwest and Southeast) were identified from the PDO analysis where PDO negative phase results in increased streamflow than PDO positive phase. Consistent negative and positive correlated regions around the CONUS were identified for AMO and NAO, respectively. The interaction test of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal oscillations showed that El Niño is modulated by the negative phase of PDO and NAO, and the positive phase of AMO, respectively, in the Upper Midwest. However, La Niña is modulated by the positive phase of AMO and PDO in Ohio Valley and Northeast while in Southeast and the South it is modulated by AMO negative phase. Results of this study will assist water managers to understand the streamflow change patterns across the CONUS at decadal and multi-decadal time scales. The

  3. Evaluation of the effects of ENSO teleconnection on climatic parameters fluctuations in Khorasan Province I.R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehteramian, Kourosh; Shahabfar, Alireza; Gharaei, Sohrab M.; Jamali, Javad B.


    The long term forecasting and monitoring of climatological parameters depends on identification of all effective factors, which are affects on this phenomena. One of these parameters is the weather signal. These signals are determinable and specific pattern and occurs in the distinguished regions in the world, but it's effects are world wide. One of the famous signals is ENSO phenomenon, which have two phases. In this paper with using annual and seasonal correlations between southern oscillation index (SOI) and precipitation and temperature data the effective amounts of ENSO phases on the differences of these factors was studied in the all regions of Khorasan province in Iran, then for more comprehensive study the classification maps in relation of ENSO and variability of precipitation and temperature were drown. It was concluded that the mentioned parameters in the whole of the province especially in central and north strip have shown significant action to ENSO, in other word the average of precipitation and temperature correlation indices are negative annually and seasonally, it means when SOI amounts are increased the precipitation and temperature in Khorasan will be decreased. With regard to increasing the above weather parameters in all regions of Khorasan at the time of ENSO negative phases (El Nino condition) variations of precipitation and temperature could be related to the changes of the pattern of occurrence this phenomenon (ENSO) due to climatic change around the world. (Author)

  4. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.


    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  5. A 600 k.y. record of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Evidence for persisting teleconnections during the Middle Eocene greenhouse climate of Central Europe (United States)

    Lenz, Olaf K.; Wilde, Volker; Riegel, Walter; Harms, Franz-Juergen


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a globally important factor in today's climate dynamics. Annually laminated oil shales from the maar lake of Messel (Germany) provide high-resolution sedimentological and paleoenvironmental data of a time interval of ˜600 k.y. during the Eocene greenhouse phase. Individual laminae consist of a light spring and summer algal layer (Tetraedron minimum layer) and a dark winter layer composed of terrigenous background sediment. Four sections were selected from the core of the Messel 2001 well in order to count varves and to measure total varve thickness and the thickess of light and dark laminae. Spectral analyses were done in order to detect possible cyclic fluctuations in varve thickness. Fluctuations are significant in the quasi-biennial (2.1-2.5 yr) and low-frequency band (2.8-3.5 yr, 4.9-5.6 yr), thus showing that algal growth as well as the background sedimentation were controlled by ENSO effects at least over a time interval of 600 k.y. This confirms the existence of a previously postulated robust Eocene ENSO. Significant peaks within a quasi-decadal (10-11 yr), interdecadal (17-26 yr), and multidecadal band (˜52 yr, ˜82 yr) show either the enduring influence of more or less cyclic instabilities or the influence of solar cycles.

  6. Paleobiology of Pleistocene Proboscideans (United States)

    Fisher, Daniel C.


    The paleobiology of Pleistocene proboscideans plays a pivotal role in understanding their history and in answering fundamental questions involving their interactions with other taxa, including humans. Much of our view of proboscidean paleobiology is influenced by analogies with extant elephants. However, a wealth of information is available for reconstructing the paleobiology of ancient proboscideans using data from fossil specimens and preservational settings. Remarkable opportunities include permafrost-derived specimens with preserved soft tissue, intestinal contents with direct evidence of diet, and compositional and structural profiles with subannual temporal resolution archived in appositional systems such as proboscidean tusks. New information on diets and local climates puts our understanding of proboscidean paleoecology on a firmer foundation, but the greatest prospects for new insight spring from life history data now being retrieved from accelerator mass spectrometry–dated fossil material. Interaction between humans and proboscideans has been a critical factor in the history of both groups.

  7. Analytical Formulation of Equatorial Standing Wave Phenomena: Application to QBO and ENSO (United States)

    Pukite, P. R.


    Key equatorial climate phenomena such as QBO and ENSO have never been adequately explained as deterministic processes. This in spite of recent research showing growing evidence of predictable behavior. This study applies the fundamental Laplace tidal equations with simplifying assumptions along the equator — i.e. no Coriolis force and a small angle approximation. To connect the analytical Sturm-Liouville results to observations, a first-order forcing consistent with a seasonally aliased Draconic or nodal lunar period (27.21d aliased into 2.36y) is applied. This has a plausible rationale as it ties a latitudinal forcing cycle via a cross-product to the longitudinal terms in the Laplace formulation. The fitted results match the features of QBO both qualitatively and quantitatively; adding second-order terms due to other seasonally aliased lunar periods provides finer detail while remaining consistent with the physical model. Further, running symbolic regression machine learning experiments on the data provided a validation to the approach, as it discovered the same analytical form and fitted values as the first principles Laplace model. These results conflict with Lindzen's QBO model, in that his original formulation fell short of making the lunar connection, even though Lindzen himself asserted "it is unlikely that lunar periods could be produced by anything other than the lunar tidal potential".By applying a similar analytical approach to ENSO, we find that the tidal equations need to be replaced with a Mathieu-equation formulation consistent with describing a sloshing process in the thermocline depth. Adapting the hydrodynamic math of sloshing, we find a biennial modulation coupled with angular momentum forcing variations matching the Chandler wobble gives an impressive match over the measured ENSO range of 1880 until the present. Lunar tidal periods and an additional triaxial nutation of 14 year period provide additional fidelity. The caveat is a phase

  8. Seasonal to Interannual Variability of Satellite-Based Precipitation Estimates in the Pacific Ocean Associated with ENSO from 1998 to 2014

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    Xueyan Hou


    Full Text Available Based on a widely used satellite precipitation product (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B43, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over the Pacific Ocean for 1998–2014 at seasonal and interannual timescales, separately, using the conventional empirical orthogonal function (EOF and investigated the seasonal patterns associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO cycles using season-reliant empirical orthogonal function (SEOF analysis. Lagged correlation analysis was also applied to derive the lead/lag correlations of the first two SEOF modes for precipitation with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO and two types of El Niño, i.e., central Pacific (CP El Niño and eastern Pacific (EP El Niño. We found that: (1 The first two seasonal EOF modes for precipitation represent the annual cycle of precipitation variations for the Pacific Ocean and the first interannual EOF mode shows the spatiotemporal variability associated with ENSO; (2 The first SEOF mode for precipitation is simultaneously associated with the development of El Niño and most likely coincides with CP El Niño. The second SEOF mode lagged behind ENSO by one year and is associated with post-El Niño years. PDO modulates precipitation variability significantly only when ENSO occurs by strengthening and prolonging the impacts of ENSO; (3 Seasonally evolving patterns of the first two SEOF modes represent the consecutive precipitation patterns associated with the entire development of EP El Niño and the following recovery year. The most significant variation occurs over the tropical Pacific, especially in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ; (4 Dry conditions in the western basin of the warm pool and wet conditions along the ITCZ and SPCZ bands during the mature phase of El Niño are associated with warm sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific, and a subtropical anticyclone dominating

  9. Impacts of winter NPO on subsequent winter ENSO: sensitivity to the definition of NPO index (United States)

    Chen, Shangfeng; Wu, Renguang


    This study investigates the linkage between boreal winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and subsequent winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based on seven different NPO indices. Results show that the influence of winter NPO on the subsequent winter El Niño is sensitive to how the NPO is defined. A significant NPO-El Niño connection is obtained when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific extends to near-equatorial regions. The anomalous cyclone induces warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies through modulating surface heat fluxes. These warm SST anomalies are able to maintain into the following spring and summer through an air-sea coupled process and in turn induce significant westerly wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific. In contrast, the NPO-El Niño relationship is unclear when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific is confined to off-equatorial regions and cannot induce significant warm SST anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific. The present study suggests that definitions of NPO should be taken into account when using NPO to predict ENSO. In particular, we recommend defining the NPO index based on the empirical orthogonal function technique over appropriate region that does not extend too far north.

  10. Lineage-specific late pleistocene expansion of an endemic subtropical gossamer-wing damselfly, Euphaea formosa, in Taiwan

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    Huang Jen-Pan


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pleistocene glacial oscillations have significantly affected the historical population dynamics of temperate taxa. However, the general effects of recent climatic changes on the evolutionary history and genetic structure of extant subtropical species remain poorly understood. In the present study, phylogeographic and historical demographic analyses based on mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences were used. The aim was to investigate whether Pleistocene climatic cycles, paleo-drainages or mountain vicariance of Taiwan shaped the evolutionary diversification of a subtropical gossamer-wing damselfly, Euphaea formosa. Results E. formosa populations originated in the middle Pleistocene period (0.3 Mya and consisted of two evolutionarily independent lineages. It is likely that they derived from the Pleistocene paleo-drainages of northern and southern Minjiang, or alternatively by divergence within Taiwan. The ancestral North-central lineage colonized northwestern Taiwan first and maintained a slowly growing population throughout much of the early to middle Pleistocene period. The ancestral widespread lineage reached central-southern Taiwan and experienced a spatial and demographic expansion into eastern Taiwan. This expansion began approximately 30,000 years ago in the Holocene interglacial period. The ancestral southern expansion into eastern Taiwan indicates that the central mountain range (CMR formed a barrier to east-west expansion. However, E. formosa populations in the three major biogeographic regions (East, South, and North-Central exhibit no significant genetic partitions, suggesting that river drainages and mountains did not form strong geographical barriers against gene flow among extant populations. Conclusions The present study implies that the antiquity of E. formosa's colonization is associated with its high dispersal ability and larval tolerance to the late Pleistocene dry grasslands. The effect of late Pleistocene

  11. Sedimentary Characterization of Nazca Ridge ODP Site 1237: Plio-Pleistocene Record of Continental Erosion and Bottom Water Influence (United States)

    Dileo, K. V.; Joseph, L. H.


    Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1237 (16°0.421'S, 76°22.685'W), drilled ~140 km off the east coast of Peru on the easternmost flank of Nazca Ridge, provides an opportunity to study climatic shifts in the southeastern Pacific Ocean over the last thirty million years. Sediment deposition at this location has been influenced by movement through various oceanic current systems, from a relatively low productivity open ocean setting to a high productivity upwelling zone along the coast of Peru, as the tectonic plate subducts under South America. Today, near the eastern edge of the Peru-Chile current at a water depth of 3212 m, this site is located in the transition zone between Antarctic Circumpolar Deep Water and Pacific Central Water and is close enough to the continent to collect terrigenous sediment from South America. Plio-Pleistocene sediment (~100 mcd) from Site 1237 is comprised of white to light greenish gray clayey nannofossil ooze (Lithologic Unit IB) and clay to ooze with similar percentages of clay minerals, nannofossils, and diatoms (Unit IA). Shipboard results indicated linear sedimentation rates of ~20-30 m/my and siliciclastic mass accumulation rates (MARs) of ~1 g/cm2/ky during this time period. Approximately 90 Plio-Pleistocene samples were analyzed for bulk magnetic susceptibility, anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS; P' and T), organic carbon content, and calcium carbonate content to aid in interpretation of climatic and oceanic conditions that existed at the time of sediment deposition. Bulk magnetic susceptibility values are very low (10-6 to 10-7 SI, or negative) at the base of the record through ~60 mcd(~3 Ma), gradually increase to a peak value of ~3.7 x 10-4 SI at ~22 mcd (~1 Ma), decreasing and subsequently increasing for the remainder of the record. In the upper part of the record (above 60 mcd) where bulk magnetic susceptibility values are >10-6, P' values (strength of magnetic susceptibility), which can be used to interpret the

  12. Linking changes in Indonesian Throughflow dynamics with the Middle Pleistocene Transition (United States)

    Petrick, B.; Auer, G.; Christensen, B. A.; De Vleeschouwer, D.; Reuning, L.; Martinez-Garcia, A.; Haug, G. H.; Gallagher, S. J.; Fulthorpe, C.; Bogus, K.


    The Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT; 1.4 - 0.4 Ma) represents a fundamental shift in the Earth's climate state. While there is high-resolution data covering the MPT from globally distributed archives, only sparse evidence exists on changes in the heat exchange between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, representing a crucial part of the global thermohaline circulation. Deciphering the influence of this heat exchange via the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is an important step in understanding the causes of the MPT. The Leeuwin Current off Western Australia is directly influenced by the ITF and can be used to reconstruct ITF variability during the MPT. Today, the Leeuwin Current is the only southward flowing eastern boundary current in the southern hemisphere. The onset of the current is unknown, but is proposed to have occurred 1 Ma and was likely related to significant changes in ITF dynamics during the MPT. Here we present the first continuous reconstruction of changes in the Leeuwin Current during the MPT using data from IODP Expedition 356 Site U1460. The site is located at 29°S in the path of the current. We reconstruct paleoenvironmental variability by combining XRF, organic geochemistry, ICP-MS, and XRD data with shipboard results, to reconstruct Leeuwin Current and ITF variability. High sedimentation rates ( 30 cm/ka) at Site U1460 provide the opportunity for high-resolution reconstruction of ITF variability during the MPT. Initial analyses show clear indications that upwelling off Western Australia intensified during the MPT, indicated by increased primary productivity related to increased nutrient levels, from 900-600 ka. Stronger upwelling in turn indicates a reduction in ITF, and thus implies that the heat transport from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean significantly diminished during the MPT. Our results suggest, that reduced heat exchange via the ITF played a major role in forcing the climatic shift towards the 100-kyr icehouse world of the Pleistocene.

  13. ENSO Simulation in CGCMs and the Associated Errors in Atmospheric Response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AchutaRao, K.; Sperber, K.R.


    Tropical Pacific variability, and specifically the simulation of ENSO in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) has previously been assessed in many studies (McCreary and Anderson[1991], Neelin et al.[1992], Mechoso et al.[1995], Latif et al.[2000], and Davey et al.[2000]). These studies have concentrated on SST variations in the tropical Pacific, and discussions of the atmospheric response have been limited to east-west movements of the convergence zone. In this paper we discuss the large-scale atmospheric response to simulated ENSO events. Control simulations from 17 global CGCMs from CMIP (Meehl et al.[2000]) are studied. The web site http:// provides documentation of the configurations of the models

  14. Evaluation of the impact of ENSO on precipitation extremes in southern Brazil considering the ODP phases (United States)

    Firpo, M. A.; Sansigolo, C. A.


    One of the most important modes of interannual variability from ocean-atmosphere system is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation - ENSO. The Brazil southern region belongs to the Southeast of South America, where there is a strong signal of ENSO, especially over the precipitation. This phenomenon can be modulated by low frequency climate patterns, especially the dominant pattern of North Pacific, called Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Attempting to better understand these interactions, the objective of this study was to investigate the seasonal impact of ENSO events over the Southern Brazil precipitation, taking into account the PDO phases. The dataset used in this study, consist of monthly precipitation records of six well distributed stations from southern Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul state). From these series it was calculated a unique index, which was categorized in three classes, in order to obtain the extremes: very below normal precipitation (below the percentile 10), normal precipitation (between percentile 10 and 90) and very above normal precipitation (above the percentile 90). To characterize the ENSO events, it was applied the Trenberth (1997) criteria in the index proposed by Bunge and Clarke (2009), which corrects the inconsistencies between the conventional SST index for Niño 3.4 region and the Southern Oscillation Index before 1950, going beyond the incoherence for decadal scale. For PDO, it was used the index proposed by Mantua et al. (1997). Contingency tables were constructed to analyze the seasonal, simultaneous, and 3, 6, 9 and 12 months lagged relationships between ENSO events (El Niño, neutral, La Niña), and extreme precipitation anomalies (categories), also considering the PDO phases during the 1913-1999 period. Moreover, a wavelet analysis was used to check the coherency and phase among these 3 times series during the 1913-2006 period. The Contingency Tables analysis showed that, generally, there were more positive (negative) precipitation

  15. Multilocus phylogeography of a widespread savanna-woodland-adapted rodent reveals the influence of Pleistocene geomorphology and climate change in Africa's Zambezi region. (United States)

    McDonough, Molly M; Šumbera, Radim; Mazoch, Vladimír; Ferguson, Adam W; Phillips, Caleb D; Bryja, Josef


    Understanding historical influences of climate and physiographic barriers in shaping patterns of biodiversity remains limited for many regions of the world. For mammals of continental Africa, phylogeographic studies, particularly for West African lineages, implicate both geographic barriers and climate oscillations in shaping small mammal diversity. In contrast, studies for southern African species have revealed conflicting phylogenetic patterns for how mammalian lineages respond to both climate change and geologic events such as river formation, especially during the Pleistocene. However, these studies were often biased by limited geographic sampling or exclusively focused on large-bodied taxa. We exploited the broad southern African distribution of a savanna-woodland-adapted African rodent, Gerbilliscus leucogaster (bushveld gerbil) and generated mitochondrial, autosomal and sex chromosome data to quantify regional signatures of climatic and vicariant biogeographic phenomena. Results indicate the most recent common ancestor for all G. leucogaster lineages occurred during the early Pleistocene. We documented six divergent mitochondrial lineages that diverged ~0.270-0.100 mya, each of which was geographically isolated during periods characterized by alterations to the course of the Zambezi River and its tributaries as well as regional 'megadroughts'. Results demonstrate the presence of a widespread lineage exhibiting demographic expansion ~0.065-0.035 mya, a time that coincides with savanna-woodland expansion across southern Africa. A multilocus autosomal perspective revealed the influence of the Kafue River as a current barrier to gene flow and regions of secondary contact among divergent mitochondrial lineages. Our results demonstrate the importance of both climatic fluctuations and physiographic vicariance in shaping the distribution of southern African biodiversity. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. The Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño (United States)

    Santoso, Agus; Mcphaden, Michael J.; Cai, Wenju


    The year 2015 was special for climate scientists, particularly for the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) research community, as a major El Niño finally materialized after a long pause since the 1997/1998 extreme El Niño. It was scientifically exciting since, due to the short observational record, our knowledge of an extreme El Niño has been based only on the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events. The 2015/2016 El Niño was marked by many environmental disasters that are consistent with what is expected for an extreme El Niño. Considering the dramatic impacts of extreme El Niño, and the risk of a potential increase in frequency of ENSO extremes under greenhouse warming, it is timely to evaluate how the recent event fits into our understanding of ENSO extremes. Here we provide a review of ENSO, its nature and dynamics, and through analysis of various observed key variables, we outline the processes that characterize its extremes. The 2015/2016 El Niño brings a useful perspective into the state of understanding of these events and highlights areas for future research. While the 2015/2016 El Niño is characteristically distinct from the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events, it still can be considered as the first extreme El Niño of the 21st century. Its extremity can be attributed in part to unusually warm condition in 2014 and to long-term background warming. In effect, this study provides a list of physically meaningful indices that are straightforward to compute for identifying and tracking extreme ENSO events in observations and climate models.

  17. Ancient divergence time estimates in Eutropis rugifera support the existence of Pleistocene barriers on the exposed Sunda Shelf

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin R. Karin


    Full Text Available Episodic sea level changes that repeatedly exposed and inundated the Sunda Shelf characterize the Pleistocene. Available evidence points to a more xeric central Sunda Shelf during periods of low sea levels, and despite the broad land connections that persisted during this time, some organisms are assumed to have faced barriers to dispersal between land-masses on the Sunda Shelf. Eutropis rugifera is a secretive, forest adapted scincid lizard that ranges across the Sunda Shelf. In this study, we sequenced one mitochondrial (ND2 and four nuclear (BRCA1, BRCA2, RAG1, and MC1R markers and generated a time-calibrated phylogeny in BEAST to test whether divergence times between Sundaic populations of E. rugifera occurred during Pleistocene sea-level changes, or if they predate the Pleistocene. We find that E. rugifera shows pre-Pleistocene divergences between populations on different Sundaic land-masses. The earliest divergence within E. rugifera separates the Philippine samples from the Sundaic samples approximately 16 Ma; the Philippine populations thus cannot be considered conspecific with Sundaic congeners. Sundaic populations diverged approximately 6 Ma, and populations within Borneo from Sabah and Sarawak separated approximately 4.5 Ma in the early Pliocene, followed by further cladogenesis in Sarawak through the Pleistocene. Divergence of peninsular Malaysian populations from the Mentawai Archipelago occurred approximately 5 Ma. Separation among island populations from the Mentawai Archipelago likely dates to the Pliocene/Pleistocene boundary approximately 3.5 Ma, and our samples from peninsular Malaysia appear to coalesce in the middle Pleistocene, about 1 Ma. Coupled with the monophyly of these populations, these divergence times suggest that despite consistent land-connections between these regions throughout the Pleistocene E. rugifera still faced barriers to dispersal, which may be a result of environmental shifts that accompanied the

  18. The 1950-1998 warm ENSO events and regional implications to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1998 seasonal El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated in 502 rivers gauged in 9 countries of the Southern African region. We found some evidence of possible links between available surface water resources in terms of mean annual ...

  19. Do our reconstructions of ENSO have too much low-frequency variability? (United States)

    Loope, G. R.; Overpeck, J. T.


    Reconstructing the spectrum of Pacific SST variability has proven to be difficult both because of complications with proxy systems such as tree rings and the relatively small number of records from the tropical Pacific. We show that the small number of long coral δ18O and Sr/Ca records has caused a bias towards having too much low-frequency variability in PCR, CPS, and RegEM reconstructions of Pacific variability. This occurs because the individual coral records used in the reconstructions have redder spectra than the shared signal (e.g. ENSO). This causes some of the unshared, low-frequency signal from local climate, salinity and possibly coral biology to bleed into the reconstruction. With enough chronologies in a reconstruction, this unshared noise cancels out but the problem is exacerbated in our longest reconstructions where fewer records are available. Coral proxies tend to have more low-frequency variability than SST observations so this problem is smaller but can still be seen in pseudoproxy experiments using observations and reanalysis data. The identification of this low-frequency bias in coral reconstructions helps bring the spectra of ENSO reconstructions back into line with both models and observations. Although our analysis is mostly constrained to the 20th century due to lack of sufficient data, we expect that as more long chronologies are developed, the low-frequency signal in ENSO reconstructions will be greatly reduced.

  20. The Punta Lucero Quarry site (Zierbena, Bizkaia): a window into the Middle Pleistocene in the Northern Iberian Peninsula (United States)

    Gómez-Olivencia, Asier; Sala, Nohemi; Arceredillo, Diego; García, Nuria; Martínez-Pillado, Virginia; Rios-Garaizar, Joseba; Garate, Diego; Solar, Gonzalo; Libano, Iñaki


    The period between the end of the Early Pleistocene and the mid-Middle Pleistocene (roughly between 1.0 and 0.4 Ma BP) is of great interest in Western Europe. It witnessed several climatic oscillations and changes in the fauna, the demise of a hominin species and the appearance of another, along with important cultural and technological changes. Thus, the few available sites with these chronologies is vital to the understanding of the tempo and mode of these changes. Middle Pleistocene sites in the Northern Iberian Peninsula are very rare. Here we present the study of the site found at the Punta Lucero Quarry (Biscay province, Northern Iberian Peninsula), which includes for the first time the complete collection from the site. The fossil association from this site includes several ungulates, such as a Megacerine deer, Cervus elaphus, large bovids (likely both Bos primigenius and Bison sp. are present), Stephanorhinus sp., and carnivores, such as Homotherium latidens, Panthera gombaszoegensis, Canis mosbachensis and Vulpes sp. This association is typical of a middle Middle Pleistocene chronology and would be the oldest macro-mammal site in the Eastern Cantabrian region. This site would likely correspond to a chronology after Mode 1 technological complex and before the arrival of Mode 2 technology in this region. Thus, it offers a glimpse into the paleoecological conditions slightly prior to or contemporaneous with the first Acheulian makers in the northern fringe of the Iberian Peninsula.

  1. L'effet ENSO Sur les précipitations et les écoulements au XXème siècle - exemple de l'Equateur

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available Sur le littoral équatorien, l'analyse statistique des données pluviométriques disponibles, qui s'étalent sur une cinquantaine d'années, a permis de mettre en évidence deux résultats principaux : 1 -les effets de ENSO ne sont pas tous aussi négatifs qu'on le pense habituellement 2 - la fréquence de retour du ENSO 1982-1983 est supérieure à 1000 ans et son impact sur le milieu morpho-dynamique va au-delà des 100 000 km2. IMPACTO DE ENSO EN LAS PRECIPITACIONES Y ESCURRIMIENTOS DURANTE EL SIGLO XX - EL CASO DEL ECUADOR. En la región litoral del Ecuador, un análisis estadístico de las series pluviométricas disponibles, alrededor de cincuenta años, acarrea dos resultados principales: 1 - los efectos de ENSO no son todos tan negativos como se piensa habitualmente 2 - el período de retorno del ENSO 1982-1983 es mayor de los mil años y su impacto sobre el medio geomorfodinámico abarca más de 100 000 km2. ENSO IMPACT ON RAINFALL AND RUNOFF IN XXth CENTURY - CASE OF ECUADOR. On the Pacific coastal region of Ecuador, a statistical analysis of the largest available pluviometric records, about fifty years, yields two main results: 1 - ENSO effects are not so negative as one usually comments 2 - the return period of ENSO 1982-1983 occurrence is over one thousand years and the geomorphodynamic impact acts upon 100 000 km2.

  2. A High-Resolution ENSO-Driven Rainfall Record Derived From an Exceptionally Fast Growing Stalagmite From Niue Island (South Pacific) (United States)

    Troy, S.; Aharon, P.; Lambert, W. J.


    El Niño-Southern Oscillation's (ENSO) dominant control over the present global climate and its unpredictable response to a global warming makes the study of paleo-ENSO important. So far corals, spanning the Tropical Pacific Ocean, are the most commonly used geological archives of paleo-ENSO. This is because corals typically exhibit high growth rates (>1 cm/yr), and reproduce reliably surface water temperatures at sub-annual resolution. However there are limitations to coral archives because their time span is relatively brief (in the order of centuries), thus far making a long and continuous ENSO record difficult to achieve. On the other hand stalagmites from island settings can offer long and continuous records of ENSO-driven rainfall. Niue Island caves offer an unusual opportunity to investigate ENSO-driven paleo-rainfall because the island is isolated from other large land masses, making it untainted by continental climate artifacts, and its geographical location is within the Tropical Pacific "rain pool" (South Pacific Convergence Zone; SPCZ) that makes the rainfall variability particularly sensitive to the ENSO phase switches. We present here a δ18O and δ13C time series from a stalagmite sampled on Niue Island (19°00' S, 169°50' W) that exhibits exceptionally high growth rates (~1.2 mm/yr) thus affording a resolution comparable to corals but for much longer time spans. A precise chronology, dating back to several millennia, was achieved by U/Th dating of the stalagmite. The stalagmite was sampled using a Computer Automated Mill (CAM) at 300 μm increments in order to receive sub-annual resolution (every 3 months) and calcite powders of 50-100 μg weight were analyzed for δ18O and δ13C using a Continuous Flow Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometer (CF-IRMS). The isotope time series contains variable shifts at seasonal, inter-annual, and inter-decadal periodicities. The δ13C and δ18O yield ranges of -3.0 to -13.0 (‰ VPDB) and -3.2 to -6.2 (‰ VPDB

  3. Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO: a review of climatic processes and their impact on one of the Earth's most important biodiversity hotspots (United States)

    Poveda, Germán; Álvarez, Diana M.; Rueda, Óscar A.


    The hydro-climatic variability of the Colombian Andes associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is reviewed using records of rainfall, river discharges, soil moisture, and a vegetation index (NDVI) as a surrogate for evapotranspiration. Anomalies in the components of the surface water balance during both phases of ENSO are quantified in terms of their sign, timing, and magnitude. During El Niño (La Niña), the region experiences negative (positive) anomalies in rainfall, river discharges (average and extremes), soil moisture, and NDVI. ENSO's effects are phase-locked to the seasonal cycle, being stronger during December-February, and weaker during March-May. Besides, rainfall and river discharges anomalies show that the ENSO signal exhibits a westerly wave-like propagation, being stronger (weaker) and earlier (later) over the western (eastern) Andes. Soil moisture anomalies are land-cover type dependant, but overall they are enhanced by ENSO, showing very low values during El Niño (mainly during dry seasons), but saturation values during La Niña. A suite of large-scale and regional mechanisms cooperating at the ocean-atmosphere-land system are reviewed to explaining the identified hydro-climatic anomalies. This review contributes to an understanding of the hydro-climatic framework of a region identified as the most critical hotspot for biodiversity on Earth, and constitutes a wake-up call for scientists and policy-makers alike, to take actions and mobilize resources and minds to prevent the further destruction of the region's valuable hydrologic and biodiversity resources and ecosystems. It also sheds lights towards the implementation of strategies and adaptation plans to coping with threats from global environmental change.

  4. Preliminary Facies Reconstruction of a Late Pleistocene Cypress Forest Discovered on the Northern Gulf of Mexico Continental Shelf (United States)

    Gonzalez Rodriguez, S. M.; Bentley, S. J.; DeLong, K. L.; Xu, K.; Caporaso, A.; Obelcz, J. B.; Harley, G. L.; Reese, C. A.; Truong, J. T.


    We are investigating the origin and preservation of an ancient bald cypress forest (Taxodium distichum) discovered on the continental shelf seafloor, offshore of Gulf Shores, Alabama, USA, in 20 m water depth. The forest was likely buried in the late Pleistocene, possibly exhumed by Hurricane Ivan in 2004, and is now exposed as stumps in life position with little evidence of decay before recent marine exposure. Radiocarbon analyses show that the forest age is near (and in some cases beyond) the limits of 14C dating, at least 41-45 ky BP. In August 2015 and July 2016, submersible vibracores (up to 5 m in length) were collected. Ongoing core analyses include: organic content (loss on ignition), granulometry, and core logging using a Geotek Multi Sensor Core Logger to generate imagery, bulk density, and x-ray fluorescence data. To bolster 14C analyses, cores collected in 2016 are presently being dated using optically stimulated luminescence. Local stratigraphy consists of a surface facies of Holocene transgressive sands, underlain by possible estuarine sediments of interbedded sand and mud (potentially Holocene or Pleistocene), overlying a swamp or delta plain facies (likely Pleistocene) containing woody debris and mud. Deeper woody facies are thought to include the soil horizons of the ancient cypress forest. Cores collected in 2016 revealed a Pleistocene paleosol beneath Holocene sands in a nearby trough. Elevation differences between swamp and paleosol horizons will be evaluated from bathymetric and subbottom data, to help characterize the preserved ancient landscape. Initial interpretation based on close proximity of Pleistocene swamp and oxidized paleosol sediments, and regional geomorphic gradients suggest that this relatively diverse assemblage of facies developed up to tens of km from the glacial-age coastline, and relatively rapid burial prevented erosion by coastal processes during the Holocene transgression thus preserving the tree stumps and wood debris.

  5. Liking food less: the impact of social influence on food liking evaluations in female students.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Robinson

    Full Text Available Social factors are known to influence food intake and choice. However, whether social influence acts on evaluations of food and drink liking has not been studied. Across two studies, we tested whether leading a participant to believe that other people do not like a food affects food liking evaluations. In Study 1, we exposed participants to social normative information suggesting a that an in-group disliked orange juice, b that an out-group disliked orange juice or c that an in-group were neutral about orange juice. We then examined how much participants believed they liked orange juice. In Study 2, participants consumed a snack food before being led to believe that two previous participants had also eaten the food and either disliked or quite liked it. We asked participants to rate how much they had enjoyed eating the snack food. Across both studies, social influence was observed, as underlined by decreases in liking evaluations. In Study 1, beliefs about liking were only influenced by social normative information when the norm was expressed by an in-group. In Study 2, exposure to others' accounts of a negative experience with a food decreased evaluated liking of the recent consumption experience. These results suggest that social influence can act upon food liking evaluations.

  6. Liking food less: the impact of social influence on food liking evaluations in female students. (United States)

    Robinson, Eric; Higgs, Suzanne


    Social factors are known to influence food intake and choice. However, whether social influence acts on evaluations of food and drink liking has not been studied. Across two studies, we tested whether leading a participant to believe that other people do not like a food affects food liking evaluations. In Study 1, we exposed participants to social normative information suggesting a) that an in-group disliked orange juice, b) that an out-group disliked orange juice or c) that an in-group were neutral about orange juice. We then examined how much participants believed they liked orange juice. In Study 2, participants consumed a snack food before being led to believe that two previous participants had also eaten the food and either disliked or quite liked it. We asked participants to rate how much they had enjoyed eating the snack food. Across both studies, social influence was observed, as underlined by decreases in liking evaluations. In Study 1, beliefs about liking were only influenced by social normative information when the norm was expressed by an in-group. In Study 2, exposure to others' accounts of a negative experience with a food decreased evaluated liking of the recent consumption experience. These results suggest that social influence can act upon food liking evaluations.

  7. Effects of Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations on mangrove population dynamics: a lesson from Sonneratia alba. (United States)

    Yang, Yuchen; Li, Jianfang; Yang, Shuhuan; Li, Xinnian; Fang, Lu; Zhong, Cairong; Duke, Norman C; Zhou, Renchao; Shi, Suhua


    A large-scale systematical investigation of the influence of Pleistocene climate oscillation on mangrove population dynamics could enrich our knowledge about the evolutionary history during times of historical climate change, which in turn may provide important information for their conservation. In this study, phylogeography of a mangrove tree Sonneratia alba was studied by sequencing three chloroplast fragments and seven nuclear genes. A low level of genetic diversity at the population level was detected across its range, especially at the range margins, which was mainly attributed to the steep sea-level drop and associated climate fluctuations during the Pleistocene glacial periods. Extremely small effective population size (Ne) was inferred in populations from both eastern and western Malay Peninsula (44 and 396, respectively), mirroring the fragility of mangrove plants and their paucity of robustness against future climate perturbations and human activity. Two major genetic lineages of high divergence were identified in the two mangrove biodiversity centres: the Indo-Malesia and Australasia regions. The estimated splitting time between these two lineages was 3.153 million year ago (MYA), suggesting a role for pre-Pleistocene events in shaping the major diversity patterns of mangrove species. Within the Indo-Malesia region, a subdivision was implicated between the South China Sea (SCS) and the remaining area with a divergence time of 1.874 MYA, corresponding to glacial vicariance when the emerged Sunda Shelf halted genetic exchange between the western and eastern coasts of the Malay Peninsula during Pleistocene sea-level drops. Notably, genetic admixture was observed in populations at the boundary regions, especially in the two populations near the Malacca Strait, indicating secondary contact between divergent lineages during interglacial periods. These interregional genetic exchanges provided ample opportunity for the re-use of standing genetic variation

  8. Phylogeography of the Alcippe morrisonia (Aves: Timaliidae: long population history beyond late Pleistocene glaciations

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    Li Shouhsien


    climate oscillations. Isolation by distance seems to be an important factor of genetic structure formation within geographical populations. Although glacial influence to population fluctuation was observed in late Pleistocene, it seems that populations in eastern China were more susceptible to climate change, and all geographical groups were growing stably through the Last Glacial Maximum. Coalescence analysis suggested that the ancestor of A. morrisonia might be traced back to the late Miocene, and the current phylogeographical structure of A. morrisonia is more likely to be attributable to a series geological events than to Pleistocene glacial cycles.

  9. The role of ENSO in determining the emission, the speciation and the resulting fate of Hg from Biomass Burning, a lesson from the recent past (United States)

    De Simone, F.; Hedgecock, I. M.; Cinnirella, S.; Carbone, F.; Sprovieri, F.; Pirrone, N.


    The burning of vegetation is an environmental process that impacts the chemical composition of troposphere on a global scale, and has significant consequences on atmospheric pollution and climate. ENSO influences the alternating patterns of drier and wetter periods in almost all continents, therefore causing a rise in, and varying the timing of, fire activity in numerous regions and ecosystems (Le Page et al). A large amount of legacy Hg is currently buffered in different environmental compartments, including soil and vegetation, due to past and current anthropogenic processes and activities. Biomass Burning (BB) is a major source of atmospheric Hg, and a main driver in recycling this legacy Hg which is eventually re-deposited over land and oceans. Hg from BB is emitted mainly as Hg(0)(g), but a large fraction (up to 30% and more) is released as Hg bound to particulate matter, Hg(p), which is more likely to be deposited close to the fire activity (De Simone et al). Thus, speciation is one of the most important factors in determining the redistribution of Hg, and of the subsequent geographical distribution of its atmospheric deposition. Although the drivers controlling speciation remain uncertain, there is evidence that it depends on burn characteristics and fuel moisture content, which depends on the climatological characteristics of the regions where BB occurs (Obrist et al). The areas where atmospheric Hg is deposited depends ultimately on atmospheric transport, transformation and precipitation patterns, hence the fate of Hg emitted from BB is determined by a complex series of interacting processes and mechanisms, which begin with the release of Hg and continue until deposition. Many of these processes are influenced by ENSO. This modeling study analyses the deposition of Hg from BB using different satellite imagery based products, spanning a number of years, characterized by different ENSO regimes, to evaluate how it impacts BB, the speciation of emitted Hg, and

  10. Continuity versus discontinuity of the human settlement of Europe between the late Early Pleistocene and the early Middle Pleistocene. The mandibular evidence (United States)

    Bermúdez de Castro, José María; Martinón-Torres, María; Rosell, Jordi; Blasco, Ruth; Arsuaga, Juan Luís; Carbonell, Eudald


    One of the most interesting aspects of the settlement of Europe is the possible continuity or discontinuity of the populations living in this continent during the Early and Middle Pleistocene. In this paper we present an analysis of the mandibular fossil record from four important Pleistocene European sites, Gran Dolina-TD6-2 (Sierra de Atapuerca), Mauer, Arago, and Atapuerca-Sima de los Huesos. We focus this study in the recognition of key derived mandibular features that may be useful to assess the relationship among the populations represented at these sites. In order to make an approach to the ecological scenario, we also present a short review and discussion of the archaeological and paleoenvironmental evidences at that time. Our results suggest that probably there was a demographic discontinuity between the late Early Pleistocene populations (MIS 21-MIS 19), and those dated to the MIS 15. Hybridization between residents and new settlers cannot be discarded. However, some features of the Gran Dolina-TD6 hominins point to some relationship between the population represented in this site (probably dated to the MIS 21) and the European Middle Pleistocene and early Late Pleistocene populations. A hypothetical scenario is presented in order to understand this apparent contradiction with the model of discontinuity.

  11. Pleistocene megafaunal interaction networks became more vulnerable after human arrival. (United States)

    Pires, Mathias M; Koch, Paul L; Fariña, Richard A; de Aguiar, Marcus A M; dos Reis, Sérgio F; Guimarães, Paulo R


    The end of the Pleistocene was marked by the extinction of almost all large land mammals worldwide except in Africa. Although the debate on Pleistocene extinctions has focused on the roles of climate change and humans, the impact of perturbations depends on properties of ecological communities, such as species composition and the organization of ecological interactions. Here, we combined palaeoecological and ecological data, food-web models and community stability analysis to investigate if differences between Pleistocene and modern mammalian assemblages help us understand why the megafauna died out in the Americas while persisting in Africa. We show Pleistocene and modern assemblages share similar network topology, but differences in richness and body size distributions made Pleistocene communities significantly more vulnerable to the effects of human arrival. The structural changes promoted by humans in Pleistocene networks would have increased the likelihood of unstable dynamics, which may favour extinction cascades in communities facing extrinsic perturbations. Our findings suggest that the basic aspects of the organization of ecological communities may have played an important role in major extinction events in the past. Knowledge of community-level properties and their consequences to dynamics may be critical to understand past and future extinctions. © 2015 The Author(s).

  12. Assessment of the APCC Coupled MME Suite in Predicting the Distinctive Climate Impacts of Two Flavors of ENSO during Boreal Winter (United States)

    Jeong, Hye-In; Lee, Doo Young; Karumuri, Ashok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Lee, June-Yi; Luo, Jing-Jia; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Hendon, Harry H.; Braganza, Karl; Ham, Yoo-Geun


    Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 19822004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events.

  13. Replicating the Ice-Volume Signal of the Early Pleistocene with a Complex Earth System Model (United States)

    Tabor, C. R.; Poulsen, C. J.; Pollard, D.


    Milankovitch theory proposes high-latitude summer insolation intensity paces the ice ages by controlling perennial snow cover amounts (Milankovitch, 1941). According to theory, the ~21 kyr cycle of precession should dominate the ice-volume records since it has the greatest influence on high-latitude summer insolation. Modeling experiments frequently support Milankovitch theory by attributing the majority of Northern Hemisphere high-latitude summer snowmelt to changes in the cycle of precession (e.g. Jackson and Broccoli, 2003). However, ice-volume proxy records, especially those of the Early Pleistocene (2.6-0.8 Ma), display variability with a period of ~41 kyr (Raymo and Lisiecki, 2005), indicative of insolation forcing from obliquity, which has a much smaller influence on summer insolation intensity than precession. Several hypotheses attempt to explain the discrepancies between Milkankovitch theory and the proxy records by invoking phenomena such as insolation gradients (Raymo and Nisancioglu, 2003), hemispheric offset (Raymo et al., 2006; Lee and Poulsen, 2009), and integrated summer energy (Huybers, 2006); however, all of these hypotheses contain caveats (Ruddiman, 2006) and have yet to be supported by modeling studies that use a complex GCM. To explore potential solutions to this '41 kyr problem,' we use an Earth system model composed of the GENESIS GCM and Land Surface model, the BIOME4 vegetation model, and the Pennsylvania State ice-sheet model. Using an asynchronous coupling technique, we run four idealized transient combinations of obliquity and precession, representing the orbital extremes of the Pleistocene (Berger and Loutre, 1991). Each experiment is run through several complete orbital cycles with a dynamic ice domain spanning North America and Greenland, and fixed preindustrial greenhouse-gas concentrations. For all orbital configurations, model results produce greater ice-volume spectral power at the frequency of obliquity despite significantly

  14. ENSO-induced inter-annual sea level variability in the Singapore strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Soumya, M.; Vethamony, P.; Tkalich, P.

    Sea level data from four tide gauge stations in the SS (Tanjong Pagar, Sultan Shoal, Sembawang and Raffles Lighthouse) for the period 1970-2012 were extracted to study the ENSO-induced interannual sea level variability Sea level during this period...

  15. Auditory capacities in Middle Pleistocene humans from the Sierra de Atapuerca in Spain. (United States)

    Martínez, I; Rosa, M; Arsuaga, J-L; Jarabo, P; Quam, R; Lorenzo, C; Gracia, A; Carretero, J-M; Bermúdez de Castro, J-M; Carbonell, E


    Human hearing differs from that of chimpanzees and most other anthropoids in maintaining a relatively high sensitivity from 2 kHz up to 4 kHz, a region that contains relevant acoustic information in spoken language. Knowledge of the auditory capacities in human fossil ancestors could greatly enhance the understanding of when this human pattern emerged during the course of our evolutionary history. Here we use a comprehensive physical model to analyze the influence of skeletal structures on the acoustic filtering of the outer and middle ears in five fossil human specimens from the Middle Pleistocene site of the Sima de los Huesos in the Sierra de Atapuerca of Spain. Our results show that the skeletal anatomy in these hominids is compatible with a human-like pattern of sound power transmission through the outer and middle ear at frequencies up to 5 kHz, suggesting that they already had auditory capacities similar to those of living humans in this frequency range.

  16. The ESR dating of fossil enamel samples from palaeo-anthropological and Palaeolithic sites of Early Pleistocene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Qi; Chen Tiemei; Li Jiuqiang


    The following problems regarding the ESR dating of fossil enamel samples from palaeo-anthropological and Palaeolithic sites of Early Pleistocene are discussed: 1) the applicability of exponential fitting in the additive method for reliable AD determination; 2) the thermo-stability of the g = 2.0018 line of hydroxyapatite and its influence on apparent ESR ages; 3) the right selection of U-uptake models; and 4) the effect of high U-content in enamel on the ESR ages. It is concluded that the ESR-EU ages of Early Pleistocene enamel samples can only be regarded as the lower limit of the true ages if no appropriate corrections for the factors discussed above are made

  17. Oceanic Channel of the IOD-ENSO teleconnection over the Indo-Pacific Ocean (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Wang, Jing; Zhao, Xia; Zhou, Hui; Xu, Tengfei; Xu, Peng


    The lag correlations of observations and model simulated data that participate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) are used to study the precursory teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Pacific ENSO one year later through the Indonesian seas. The results suggest that Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) play an important role in the IOD-ENSO teleconnection. Numerical simulations using a hierarchy of ocean models and climate coupled models have shown that the interannual sea level depressions in the southeastern Indian Ocean during IOD force enhanced ITF to transport warm water of the Pacific warm pool to the Indian Ocean, producing cold subsurface temperature anomalies, which propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific and induce significant coupled ocean-atmosphere evolution. The teleconnection is found to have decadal variability. Similar decadal variability has also been identified in the historical simulations of the CMIP5 models. The dynamics of the inter-basin teleconnection during the positive phases of the decadal variability are diagnosed to be the interannual variations of the ITF associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During the negative phases, the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific is anomalously deeper so that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the cold tongue are not sensitive to the thermocline depth changes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found not affected significantly by the anthropogenic forcing.

  18. Interannual hydroclimatic variability and the 2009-2011 extreme ENSO phases in Colombia: from Andean glaciers to Caribbean lowlands (United States)

    Bedoya-Soto, Juan Mauricio; Poveda, Germán; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Vélez-Upegui, Jorge Julián


    During 2009-2011, Colombia experienced extreme hydroclimatic events associated with the extreme phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, we study the dynamics of diverse land-atmosphere phenomena involved in such anomalous events at continental, regional, and local scales. Standardized anomalies of precipitation, 2-m temperature, total column water (TCW), volumetric soil water (VSW), temperature at 925 hPa, surface sensible heat (SSH), latent heat (SLH), evaporation (EVP), and liquid water equivalent thickness (LWET) are analyzed to assess atmosphere-land controls and relationships over tropical South America (TropSA) during 1986-2013 (long term) and 2009-2011 (ENSO extreme phases). An assessment of the interannual covariability between precipitation and 2-m temperature is performed using singular value decomposition (SVD) to identify the dominant spatiotemporal modes of hydroclimatic variability over the region's largest river basins (Amazon, Orinoco, Tocantins, Magdalena-Cauca, and Essequibo). ENSO, its evolution in time, and strong and consistent spatial structures emerge as the dominant mode of variability. In situ anomalies during both extreme phases of ENSO 2009-2011 over the Magdalena-Cauca River basins are linked at the continental scale. The ENSO-driven hydroclimatic effects extend from the diurnal cycle to interannual timescales, as reflected in temperature data from tropical glaciers and the rain-snow boundary in the highest peaks of the Central Andes of Colombia to river levels along the Caribbean lowlands of the Magdalena-Cauca River basin.

  19. Lethal Interpersonal Violence in the Middle Pleistocene


    Sala, Nohemi; Arsuaga, Juan Luis; Pantoja-P?rez, Ana; Pablos, Adri?n; Mart?nez, Ignacio; Quam, Rolf M.; G?mez-Olivencia, Asier; Berm?dez de Castro, Jos? Mar?a; Carbonell, Eudald


    Evidence of interpersonal violence has been documented previously in Pleistocene members of the genus Homo, but only very rarely has this been posited as the possible manner of death. Here we report the earliest evidence of lethal interpersonal violence in the hominin fossil record. Cranium 17 recovered from the Sima de los Huesos Middle Pleistocene site shows two clear perimortem depression fractures on the frontal bone, interpreted as being produced by two episodes of localized blunt force ...

  20. Remote ENSO forcing versus local air-sea interaction in QTCM: a sensitivity study to intraseasonal variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Gushchina


    Full Text Available The skill of a newly designed global atmospheric model of intermediate complexity - QTCM (for quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model in simulating the teleconnections is investigated. The role of the ENSO remote forcing over the Pacific surrounding regions is emphasized from sensitivity experiments to critical parameters of the model. The role of the tropical intraseasonal variability (ITV on the simulated ENSO teleconnection pattern is estimated using the methodology proposed by Lin et al. (2000 allowing to damp the energy of ITV in the model. The reduction of intraseasonal variability allows emphasizing the forced response of the atmosphere and eases the detection of local coupled atmosphere-ocean patterns. It was shown that the simulated ITV has an impact on the ENSO teleconnection pattern both in the mid-latitudes and in regions of ascending and descending branches of Walker circulation cells in the tropics.

  1. On the physical causes of ENSO events and the ITCZ's extreme latitudinal displacements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.


    We predict the maximum latitudinal shifts of the Inter-Tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over land masses due to variations in the surface or near-surface temperature fields. We also predict the mean locations of the ITCZ over oceans during northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH) summers. All our predictions are shown to agree well with observations. Finally, on the basis of the association between the latitudinal location of the eastern pacific portion of the ITCZ and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events as well as some previous related work (Njau, 1985a; 1985b; 1986; 1987; 1988), we suggest possible physical causes of the ENSO events. (author). 39 refs, 1 fig., 2 tabs

  2. Impact of 1990-'95 ENSO/WEPO event on Indian monsoon rainfall

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    The negative phase of the 1990-'95 El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the associated Warming of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean (WEPO) was the longest observed in the 113 years of its recorded history, compared to its normal duration of 1 to 2...

  3. Influences of geomorphology and geology on alpine treeline in the American West - More important than climatic influences? (United States)

    Butler, D.R.; Malanson, G.P.; Walsh, S.J.; Fagre, D.B.


    The spatial distribution and pattern of alpine treeline in the American West reflect the overarching influences of geological history, lithology and structure, and geomorphic processes and landforms, and geologic and geomorphic factors—both forms and processes—can control the spatiotemporal response of the ecotone to climate change. These influences occur at spatial scales ranging from the continental scale to fine scale processes and landforms at the slope scale. Past geomorphic influences, particularly Pleistocene glaciation, have also left their impact on treeline, and treelines across the west are still adjusting to post-Pleistocene conditions within Pleistocene-created landforms. Current fine scale processes include solifluction and changes on relict solifluction and digging by animals. These processes should be examined in detail in future studies to facilitate a better understanding of where individual tree seedlings become established as a primary response of the ecotone to climate change.

  4. Hydro-climatic variability over the Andes of Colombia associated with ENSO: a review of climatic processes and their impact on one of the Earth's most important biodiversity hotspots

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poveda, German; Alvarez, Diana M. [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, School of Geosciences and Environment, Medellin (Colombia); Rueda, Oscar A. [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, School of Geosciences and Environment, Medellin (Colombia); Grupo HTM, Medellin (Colombia)


    The hydro-climatic variability of the Colombian Andes associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is reviewed using records of rainfall, river discharges, soil moisture, and a vegetation index (NDVI) as a surrogate for evapotranspiration. Anomalies in the components of the surface water balance during both phases of ENSO are quantified in terms of their sign, timing, and magnitude. During El Nino (La Nina), the region experiences negative (positive) anomalies in rainfall, river discharges (average and extremes), soil moisture, and NDVI. ENSO's effects are phase-locked to the seasonal cycle, being stronger during December-February, and weaker during March-May. Besides, rainfall and river discharges anomalies show that the ENSO signal exhibits a westerly wave-like propagation, being stronger (weaker) and earlier (later) over the western (eastern) Andes. Soil moisture anomalies are land-cover type dependant, but overall they are enhanced by ENSO, showing very low values during El Nino (mainly during dry seasons), but saturation values during La Nina. A suite of large-scale and regional mechanisms cooperating at the ocean-atmosphere-land system are reviewed to explaining the identified hydro-climatic anomalies. This review contributes to an understanding of the hydro-climatic framework of a region identified as the most critical hotspot for biodiversity on Earth, and constitutes a wake-up call for scientists and policy-makers alike, to take actions and mobilize resources and minds to prevent the further destruction of the region's valuable hydrologic and biodiversity resources and ecosystems. It also sheds lights towards the implementation of strategies and adaptation plans to coping with threats from global environmental change. (orig.)

  5. Late Pleistocene sea-level changes recorded in tidal and fluvial deposits from Itaubal Formation, onshore portion of the Foz do Amazonas Basin, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isaac Salém Alves Azevedo Bezerra

    Full Text Available ABSTRACTThe Pleistocene deposits exposed in the Amapá Coastal Plain (onshore portion of the Foz do Amazonas Basin, northeastern South America were previously interpreted as Miocene in age. In this work, they were named as "Itaubal Formation" and were included in the quaternary coastal history of Amazonia. The study, through facies and stratigraphic analyses in combination with optically stimulated luminescence (single and multiple aliquot regeneration, allowed interpreting this unit as Late Pleistocene tidal and fluvial deposits. The Itaubal Formation, which unconformably overlies strongly weathered basement rocks of the Guianas Shield, was subdivided into two progradational units, separated by an unconformity related to sea-level fall, here named as Lower and Upper Units. The Lower Unit yielded ages between 120,600 (± 12,000 and 70,850 (± 6,700 years BP and consists of subtidal flat, tide-influenced meandering stream and floodplain deposits, during highstand conditions. The Upper Unit spans between 69,150 (± 7,200 and 58,150 (± 6,800 years BP and is characterized by braided fluvial deposits incised in the Lower Unit, related to base-level fall; lowstand conditions remained until 23,500 (± 3,000 years BP. The studied region was likely exposed during the Last Glacial Maximum and then during Holocene, covered by tidal deposits influenced by the Amazon River.

  6. Sequential fragmentation of Pleistocene forests in an East Africa biodiversity hotspot: chameleons as a model to track forest history.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G John Measey

    Full Text Available The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM is an example of naturally fragmented tropical forests, which contain one of the highest known concentrations of endemic plants and vertebrates. Numerous paleo-climatic studies have not provided direct evidence for ancient presence of Pleistocene forests, particularly in the regions in which savannah presently occurs. Knowledge of the last period when forests connected EAM would provide a sound basis for hypothesis testing of vicariance and dispersal models of speciation. Dated phylogenies have revealed complex patterns throughout EAM, so we investigated divergence times of forest fauna on four montane isolates in close proximity to determine whether forest break-up was most likely to have been simultaneous or sequential, using population genetics of a forest restricted arboreal chameleon, Kinyongia boehmei.We used mitochondrial and nuclear genetic sequence data and mutation rates from a fossil-calibrated phylogeny to estimate divergence times between montane isolates using a coalescent approach. We found that chameleons on all mountains are most likely to have diverged sequentially within the Pleistocene from 0.93-0.59 Ma (95% HPD 0.22-1.84 Ma. In addition, post-hoc tests on chameleons on the largest montane isolate suggest a population expansion ∼182 Ka.Sequential divergence is most likely to have occurred after the last of three wet periods within the arid Plio-Pleistocene era, but was not correlated with inter-montane distance. We speculate that forest connection persisted due to riparian corridors regardless of proximity, highlighting their importance in the region's historic dispersal events. The population expansion coincides with nearby volcanic activity, which may also explain the relative paucity of the Taita's endemic fauna. Our study shows that forest chameleons are an apposite group to track forest fragmentation, with the inference that forest extended between some EAM during the Pleistocene 1

  7. On the Paleobiogeography of Pleistocenic Italian Mammals / Osservazioni sulla paleobiogeografia dei mammiferi del Pleistocene italiano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucia Caloi


    Full Text Available Abstract In this paper the main Italian Pleistocene mammalofaunas are examined and a chronological sequence of the main deposits is proposed. Centers of spreading, times of first appearence in Italy and ranges through the peninsula of the more representative species are indicated, as far as possible. The insular faunas and the different degrees of endemism they show, are particularly discussed. Riassunto Vengono esaminate sinteticamente le principali faune a mammiferi del Pleistocene d'Italia e viene proposta una successione cronologica per i principali giacimenti. Per le specie più rappresentative vengono indicati, per quanto possibile, le aree di provenienza, il momento della comparsa e la loro diffusione nella penisola. Particolare attenzione viene posta alle forme insulari ed al loro carattere endemico.

  8. Influence of aerosol-cloud interaction on austral summer precipitation over Southern Africa during ENSO events (United States)

    Ruchith, R. D.; Sivakumar, V.


    In the present study, we are investigating the role of aerosols-and clouds in modulating the austral summer precipitation (December-February) during ENSO events over southern Africa region for the period from 2002 to2012 by using satellite and complimentary data sets. Aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) and Cloud radiative forcing (CRF) shows distinct patterns for El-Nina and La-Nina years. Further analysis were carried out by selecting the four Southern Africa regions where the precipitation shows remarkable difference during El-Nino and La-Nina years. These regions are R1 (33°S-24°S, 18°E-30°E), R2 (17°S-10°S, 24°E-32°E), R3 (19°S-9°S, 33°E-41°E) and R4 (7°S-0°S, 27°E-36°E). Aerosol Optical depth (AOD) shows considerable differences during these events. In region R1, R2 and R3 AOD shows more abundance in El-Nino years as compared to La-Nina years where as in R4 the AOD shows more abundance in La-Nina years. Cloud Droplet Effective radius (CDER) shows higher values during La-Nina years over R1, R2 and R3 regions but in R4 region CDER shows higher values in El-Nino years. Aerosol indirect effect (AIE) is estimated both for fixed cloud liquid water path (CLWP) and for fixed cloud ice path (CIP) bins, ranging from 1 to 300 gm -2 at 25 gm -2 interval over all the selected regions for El-Nino and La-Nina years. The results indicate more influence of positive indirect effect (Twomey effect) over R1 and R3 region during El-Nino years as compared to La-Nina years. This analysis reveals the important role of aerosol on cloud-precipitation interaction mechanism illustrating the interlinkage between dynamics and microphysics during austral summer season over southern Africa.

  9. NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostics Discussion (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (EDD) is issued by NOAA Climate Prediction Center each month on the Thursday between the 5th and 11th with few exceptions (major...

  10. Sensitivity of North American agriculture to ENSO-based climate scenarios and their socio-economic consequences: Modeling in an integrated assessment framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, N.J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Brown, R.A.; Sands, R.D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Legler, D. [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States). Center for Ocean Atmosphere Prediction Studies; Srinivasan, R. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Blacklands Research Center; Tiscareno-Lopez, M.


    A group of Canadian, US and Mexican natural resource specialists, organized by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) under its North American Energy, Environment and Economy (NA3E) Program, has applied a simulation modeling approach to estimating the impact of ENSO-driven climatic variations on the productivity of major crops grown in the three countries. Methodological development is described and results of the simulations presented in this report. EPIC (the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) was the agro-ecosystem model selected-for this study. EPIC uses a daily time step to simulate crop growth and yield, water use, runoff and soil erosion among other variables. The model was applied to a set of so-called representative farms parameterized through a specially-assembled Geographic Information System (GIS) to reflect the soils, topography, crop management and weather typical of the regions represented. Fifty one representative farms were developed for Canada, 66 for the US and 23 for Mexico. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) scenarios for the EPIC simulations were created using the historic record of sea-surface temperature (SST) prevailing in the eastern tropical Pacific for the period October 1--September 30. Each year between 1960 and 1989 was thus assigned to an ENSO category or state. The ENSO states were defined as El Nino (EN, SST warmer than the long-term mean), Strong El Nino (SEN, much warmer), El Viejo (EV, cooler) and Neutral (within {+-}0.5 C of the long-term mean). Monthly means of temperature and precipitation were then calculated at each farm for the period 1960--1989 and the differences (or anomalies) between the means in Neutral years and EN, SEN and EV years determined. The average monthly anomalies for each ENSO state were then used to create new monthly statistics for each farm and ENSO-state combination. The adjusted monthly statistics characteristic of each ENSO state were then used to drive a stochastic-weather simulator

  11. Tree establishment along an ENSO experimental gradient in the Atacama desert

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Squeo, F.A.; Holmgren, M.; Jimenez, L.; Alban, L.; Reyes, J.; Gutierrez, J.R.


    Questions: (1) What are the roles of regional climate and plant growth rate for seedling establishment during ENSO rainy pulses along the western coast of South America? (2) What is the water threshold for tree seedling establishment in these arid ecosystems? Location: Atacama Desert, western South

  12. Impact of ENSO events on the Kruger National Park’s vegetation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wessels, Konrad J


    Full Text Available the Kruger National Park shows the strong relationship between the ENSO episodes (droughts during El Niño and high rainfall during La Niña episodes), rainfall, grass production and satellite time-series data of vegetation activity. El Niño conditions have...

  13. Dynamics of the Indian monsoon and ENSO relationships in the SINTEX global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terray, P. [LODYC, Paris (France); Universite Paris 7, Paris (France); Guilyardi, E. [LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); CGAM, Reading (United Kingdom); Fischer, A.S. [LODYC, Paris (France); Delecluse, P. [LODYC, Paris (France); LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)


    This paper uses recent gridded climatological data and a coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulation in order to assess the relationships between the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The focus is on the dynamics of the ISM-ENSO relationships and the ability of the state-of-the-art coupled GCM to reproduce the complex lead-lag relationships between the ISM and the ENSO. The coupled GCM is successful in reproducing the ISM circulation and rainfall climatology in the Indian areas even though the entire ISM circulation is weaker relative to that observed. In both observations and in the simulation, the ISM rainfall anomalies are significantly associated with fluctuations of the Hadley circulation and the 200 hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Indian Ocean. A quasi-biennial time scale is found to structure the ISM dynamical and rainfall indices in both cases. Moreover, ISM indices have a similar interannual variability in the simulation and observations. The coupled model is less successful in simulating the annual cycle in the tropical Pacific. Despite some problems in simulation of the annual cycle and the Southern Oscillation, the coupled model captures some aspects of the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. ENSO events are phase-locked with the annual cycle as observed, but are of reduced amplitude relative to the observations. Wavelet analysis of the model Nino34 time series shows enhanced power in the 2-4 year band, as compared to the 2-8 year range for observations during the 1950-2000 period. The ISM circulation is weakened during ENSO years in both the simulation and the observations. However, the model fails to reproduce the lead-lag relationship between the ISM and Nino34 sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Furthermore, lag correlations show that the delayed response of the wind stress over the central Pacific to ISM variability is insignificant in the simulation. These

  14. Evolution of ENSO-related rainfall anomalies in Southeast Asia region and its relationship with atmosphere-ocean variations in Indo-Pacific sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juneng, Liew; Tangang, Fredolin T. [Technology National University of Malaysia, Marine Science Program, School of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Bangi Selangor (Malaysia)


    The Southeast Asia rainfall (SEAR) anomalies depend strongly on phases of El Nino (La Nina). Using an extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis, it is shown that the dominant EEOF mode of SEAR anomalies evolves northeastward throughout a period from the summer when El Nino develops to spring the following year when the event weakens. This evolution is consistent with northeastward migration of the ENSO-related anomalous out going radiation field. During boreal summer (winter), the strong ENSO-related anomaly tends to reside in regions south (north) of the equator. The evolution of dominant mode of SEAR anomalies is in tandem with the evolution of ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The strengthening and weakening of ''boomerang-shaped'' SST in western Pacific, the changing sign of anomalous SST in Java Sea and the warming in Indian Ocean and South China Sea are all part of ENSO-related changes and all are linked to SEAR anomaly. The anomalous low-level circulation associated with ENSO-related SEAR anomaly indicates the strengthening and weakening of two off-equatorial anticyclones, one over the Southern Indian Ocean and the other over the western North Pacific. Together with patterns of El Nino minus La Nina composites of various fields, it is proposed that the northeastward evolution of SEAR anomaly is basically part of the large-scale eastward evolution of ENSO-related signal in the Indo-Pacific sector. The atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role in this evolution. (orig.)

  15. Solar cycle modulation of ENSO variability (United States)

    Kodera, Kunihiko; Thiéblemont, Rémi


    Inspired by the work of Labitzke and van Loon on solar/QBO modulation in the stratosphere, Barnett (1989) conducted an investigation on the relationship between the the biannual component of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the solar activity. He found that the amplitude of biannual component of the SST (BO) is modulated by the 11-year solar cycle: the amplitude of the BO is large during a period of low solar activity, but small during high solar activity. More than 25-years or two solar cycle has passed since his finding, but the relationship still holds. In order to get an insight into the mechanism of the solar modulation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), here we have revisited this problem. Solar cycle modulation of the BO in the tropical SST is discernible since the end of the 19th centuries, but the amplitude modulation is particularly clear after 1960's. The composite analysis of the SST based on the amplitude of the BO during 1958-2012, indicates that the amplitude of BO is larger when the equatorial Pacific temperature anomalies are high in the central Pacific, but low in the eastern Pacific. Central Pacific anomalies extend to the northern hemisphere, while those in the central Pacific spread toward the southern hemisphere. In short, this anomalous SST pattern is similar to the El Niño modoki. In this connection, it should be noted that the solar signal in the tropical SST also exhibits a similar pattern. This suggests that the modulation of the ENSO variability by the solar cycle originates through a modulation of the El Niño Modoki rather than the canonical El Nino.

  16. Land-sea coupling of early Pleistocene glacial cycles in the southern North Sea exhibit dominant Northern Hemisphere forcing (United States)

    Donders, Timme H.; van Helmond, Niels A. G. M.; Verreussel, Roel; Munsterman, Dirk; ten Veen, Johan; Speijer, Robert P.; Weijers, Johan W. H.; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Peterse, Francien; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S.; Lourens, Lucas; Kuhlmann, Gesa; Brinkhuis, Henk


    We assess the disputed phase relations between forcing and climatic response in the early Pleistocene with a spliced Gelasian (˜ 2.6-1.8 Ma) multi-proxy record from the southern North Sea basin. The cored sections couple climate evolution on both land and sea during the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation (NHG) in NW Europe, providing the first well-constrained stratigraphic sequence of the classic terrestrial Praetiglian stage. Terrestrial signals were derived from the Eridanos paleoriver, a major fluvial system that contributed a large amount of freshwater to the northeast Atlantic. Due to its latitudinal position, the Eridanos catchment was likely affected by early Pleistocene NHG, leading to intermittent shutdown and reactivation of river flow and sediment transport. Here we apply organic geochemistry, palynology, carbonate isotope geochemistry, and seismostratigraphy to document both vegetation changes in the Eridanos catchment and regional surface water conditions and relate them to early Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles and relative sea level changes. Paleomagnetic and palynological data provide a solid integrated timeframe that ties the obliquity cycles, expressed in the borehole geophysical logs, to Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 103 to 92, independently confirmed by a local benthic oxygen isotope record. Marine and terrestrial palynological and organic geochemical records provide high-resolution reconstructions of relative terrestrial and sea surface temperature (TT and SST), vegetation, relative sea level, and coastal influence.During the prominent cold stages MIS 98 and 96, as well as 94, the record indicates increased non-arboreal vegetation, low SST and TT, and low relative sea level. During the warm stages MIS 99, 97, and 95 we infer increased stratification of the water column together with a higher percentage of arboreal vegetation, high SST, and relative sea level maxima. The early Pleistocene distinct warm-cold alterations are

  17. Simulation of Relationship between ENSO and winter precipitation over Western Himalayas: Application of Regional climate model (RegT-Band) (United States)

    Tiwari, P. R.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Acharaya, N.; Sinha, P.


    Precipitation over the Western Himalayas region during winter is mainly associated with the passage of midlatitude synoptic systems known as western disturbances (WDs). Recently, many observational and modeling studies reported that the relationship of the Indian southwest monsoon rainfall with El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has weakened since around 1980. But, in contrast, only very few observational studies are reported so far to examine the relationship between ENSO and the winter precipitation over the Western Himalayas region from December to February (DJF). But there is a huge gap of modeling this phenomenon. So keeping in view of the absence of modeling studies, an attempt is made to simulate the relationship between wintertime precipitations associated with large scale global forcing of ENSO over the Western Himalayas. In the present study, RegT-Band, a tropical band version of the regional climate model RegCM4 is integrated for a set of 5 El Niño (1986-87, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2009-10) and 4 La Niña (1984-85, 1988-89, 1999-2000, 2007-08) years with the observed sea-surface temperature and lateral boundary condition. The domain extends from 50° S to 50° N and covers the entire tropics at a grid spacing of about 45 km, i.e. it includes lateral boundary forcing only at the southern and northern boundaries. The performance evaluation of the model in capturing the large scale fields followed by ENSO response with wintertime precipitation over the Western Himalayas region has been carried out by using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis 2 (NNRP2) data (2.5° x 2.5°) and Aphrodite precipitation data (0.25° x 0.25°). The model is able to delineate the mean circulation associated with ENSO over the region during DJF reasonably well and shows strong southwesterly to northwesterly wind flow, which is there in verification analysis also. The vertical structure of the low as well as upper level

  18. Present spatial diversity patterns of Theobroma cacao L. in the neotropics reflect genetic differentiation in pleistocene refugia followed by human-influenced dispersal. (United States)

    Thomas, Evert; van Zonneveld, Maarten; Loo, Judy; Hodgkin, Toby; Galluzzi, Gea; van Etten, Jacob


    Cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) is indigenous to the Amazon basin, but is generally believed to have been domesticated in Mesoamerica for the production of chocolate beverage. However, cacao's distribution of genetic diversity in South America is also likely to reflect pre-Columbian human influences that were superimposed on natural processes of genetic differentiation. Here we present the results of a spatial analysis of the intra-specific diversity of cacao in Latin America, drawing on a dataset of 939 cacao trees genotypically characterized by means of 96 SSR markers. To assess continental diversity patterns we performed grid-based calculations of allelic richness, Shannon diversity and Nei gene diversity, and distinguished different spatially coherent genetic groups by means of cluster analysis. The highest levels of genetic diversity were observed in the Upper Amazon areas from southern Peru to the Ecuadorian Amazon and the border areas between Colombia, Peru and Brazil. On the assumption that the last glaciation (22,000-13,000 BP) had the greatest pre-human impact on the current distribution and diversity of cacao, we modeled the species' Pleistocene niche suitability and overlaid this with present-day diversity maps. The results suggest that cacao was already widely distributed in the Western Amazon before the onset of glaciation. During glaciations, cacao populations were likely to have been restricted to several refugia where they probably underwent genetic differentiation, resulting in a number of genetic clusters which are representative for, or closest related to, the original wild cacao populations. The analyses also suggested that genetic differentiation and geographical distribution of a number of other clusters seem to have been significantly affected by processes of human management and accompanying genetic bottlenecks. We discuss the implications of these results for future germplasm collection and in situ, on farm and ex situ conservation of cacao.

  19. Trophic interactions between larger crocodylians and giant tortoises on Aldabra Atoll, Western Indian Ocean, during the Late Pleistocene. (United States)

    Scheyer, Torsten M; Delfino, Massimo; Klein, Nicole; Bunbury, Nancy; Fleischer-Dogley, Frauke; Hansen, Dennis M


    Today, the UNESCO World Heritage Site of Aldabra Atoll is home to about 100 000 giant tortoises, Aldabrachelys gigantea , whose fossil record goes back to the Late Pleistocene. New Late Pleistocene fossils (age ca . 90-125 000 years) from the atoll revealed some appendicular bones and numerous shell fragments of giant tortoises and cranial and postcranial elements of crocodylians. Several tortoise bones show circular holes, pits and scratch marks that are interpreted as bite marks of crocodylians. The presence of a Late Pleistocene crocodylian species, Aldabrachampsus dilophus , has been known for some time, but the recently found crocodylian remains presented herein are distinctly larger than those previously described. This indicates the presence of at least some larger crocodylians, either of the same or of a different species, on the atoll. These larger crocodylians, likely the apex predators in the Aldabra ecosystem at the time, were well capable of inflicting damage on even very large giant tortoises. We thus propose an extinct predator-prey interaction between crocodylians and giant tortoises during the Late Pleistocene, when both groups were living sympatrically on Aldabra, and we discuss scenarios for the crocodylians directly attacking the tortoises or scavenging on recently deceased animals.

  20. Enhanced Influence of the Tropical Atlantic SST on the Western North Pacific Subtropical High after late 1970s (United States)

    Hong, C. C.


    The western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in boreal summer shows a remarkable enhancement after the late 1970s. Whereas the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and the equatorial eastern Pacific (EEP) had been noted to have remarkable local or remote effects on enhancing the WNPSH, the influence of the Atlantic SST, so far, is hardly explored. This article reports a new finding: enhanced relationship between the tropical Atlantic (TA)-SST and the WNPSH after the late 1970s. Regression study suggests that the warm TA-SST produced a zonally overturning circulation anomaly, with descending over the central equatorial Pacific and ascending over the tropical Atlantic/eastern Pacific. The anomalous descending over the central equatorial Pacific likely induced low-level anticyclonic anomaly to the west and therefore enhanced the WNPSH. One implication of this new finding is for predictability. The well-known "spring predictability barrier" (i.e., the influence of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) falls dramatically during boreal spring) does not apply to the TA-SST/WNPSH relationship. Conversely, the TA-SST shows consistently high correlation starting from boreal spring when the ENSO influence continues declining. The TA-SST pushes the predictability of the WNPSH in boreal summer approximately one season earlier to boreal spring.

  1. Isotopic changes due to convective moistening of the lower troposphere associated with variations in the ENSO and IOD from 2005 to 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeonghoon Lee


    Full Text Available We use the tropospheric emission spectrometer measurements of the isotopic composition of water vapour (δD in the lower troposphere to examine how changes in the distribution of convection and precipitation control water vapour amount and its isotope over the Indian Ocean. Measurements of the outgoing longwave radiation and vertical velocity from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and cloud ice water content from the Microwave Limb Sounder show distinct variations in convection due to a phase shift of both El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD. These variations in convection are associated with changes in precipitation and water amount over the Western Indian Ocean (WIO and Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO, depending on the phases of ENSO and/or the IOD. Over the EIO in 2006, induced by the interplay of both positive ENSO and IOD, it is drier and less isotopically depleted due to less frequent and/or weaker deep convective activity and subsequent precipitation compared to 2005. By contrast, over the WIO in 2006, an increase in water vapour and precipitation but little isotopic fractionation in water vapour of clear sky compared to 2005 is likely associated with an increase in both enhanced deep and shallow convection, caused by the positive IOD. Therefore, paleoarchives of water isotopes near Africa will be more difficult to relate to a single process because changes in convective activity result in changes in precipitation but do not have a significant impact on the isotopic composition of the source vapour based on this case analysis.

  2. Corporate social responsibility as a business strategy: Stora Enso-WWF partnership project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tysiachniouk, M.S.


    The paper analyzes the strategic partnership between transnational corporation Stora-Enso and international nongovernmental organization NGO WWF as a business strategy that helps the company to adopt its business to the turbulent environment of the economy in transition. In this paper I draw from

  3. Middle Pleistocene protein sequences from the rhinoceros genus Stephanorhinus and the phylogeny of extant and extinct Middle/Late Pleistocene Rhinocerotidae. (United States)

    Welker, Frido; Smith, Geoff M; Hutson, Jarod M; Kindler, Lutz; Garcia-Moreno, Alejandro; Villaluenga, Aritza; Turner, Elaine; Gaudzinski-Windheuser, Sabine


    Ancient protein sequences are increasingly used to elucidate the phylogenetic relationships between extinct and extant mammalian taxa. Here, we apply these recent developments to Middle Pleistocene bone specimens of the rhinoceros genus Stephanorhinus . No biomolecular sequence data is currently available for this genus, leaving phylogenetic hypotheses on its evolutionary relationships to extant and extinct rhinoceroses untested. Furthermore, recent phylogenies based on Rhinocerotidae (partial or complete) mitochondrial DNA sequences differ in the placement of the Sumatran rhinoceros ( Dicerorhinus sumatrensis ). Therefore, studies utilising ancient protein sequences from Middle Pleistocene contexts have the potential to provide further insights into the phylogenetic relationships between extant and extinct species, including Stephanorhinus and Dicerorhinus . ZooMS screening (zooarchaeology by mass spectrometry) was performed on several Late and Middle Pleistocene specimens from the genus Stephanorhinus , subsequently followed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) to obtain ancient protein sequences from a Middle Pleistocene Stephanorhinus specimen. We performed parallel analysis on a Late Pleistocene woolly rhinoceros specimen and extant species of rhinoceroses, resulting in the availability of protein sequence data for five extant species and two extinct genera. Phylogenetic analysis additionally included all extant Perissodactyla genera ( Equus , Tapirus ), and was conducted using Bayesian (MrBayes) and maximum-likelihood (RAxML) methods. Various ancient proteins were identified in both the Middle and Late Pleistocene rhinoceros samples. Protein degradation and proteome complexity are consistent with an endogenous origin of the identified proteins. Phylogenetic analysis of informative proteins resolved the Perissodactyla phylogeny in agreement with previous studies in regards to the placement of the families Equidae, Tapiridae, and

  4. A real-time ocean reanalyses intercomparison project in the context of tropical pacific observing system and ENSO monitoring (United States)

    Xue, Yan; Wen, C.; Kumar, A.; Balmaseda, M.; Fujii, Y.; Alves, O.; Martin, M.; Yang, X.; Vernieres, G.; Desportes, C.; Lee, T.; Ascione, I.; Gudgel, R.; Ishikawa, I.


    An ensemble of nine operational ocean reanalyses (ORAs) is now routinely collected, and is used to monitor the consistency across the tropical Pacific temperature analyses in real-time in support of ENSO monitoring, diagnostics, and prediction. The ensemble approach allows a more reliable estimate of the signal as well as an estimation of the noise among analyses. The real-time estimation of signal-to-noise ratio assists the prediction of ENSO. The ensemble approach also enables us to estimate the impact of the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) on the estimation of ENSO-related oceanic indicators. The ensemble mean is shown to have a better accuracy than individual ORAs, suggesting the ensemble approach is an effective tool to reduce uncertainties in temperature analysis for ENSO. The ensemble spread, as a measure of uncertainties in ORAs, is shown to be partially linked to the data counts of in situ observations. Despite the constraints by TPOS data, uncertainties in ORAs are still large in the northwestern tropical Pacific, in the SPCZ region, as well as in the central and northeastern tropical Pacific. The uncertainties in total temperature reduced significantly in 2015 due to the recovery of the TAO/TRITON array to approach the value before the TAO crisis in 2012. However, the uncertainties in anomalous temperature remained much higher than the pre-2012 value, probably due to uncertainties in the reference climatology. This highlights the importance of the long-term stability of the observing system for anomaly monitoring. The current data assimilation systems tend to constrain the solution very locally near the buoy sites, potentially damaging the larger-scale dynamical consistency. So there is an urgent need to improve data assimilation systems so that they can optimize the observation information from TPOS and contribute to improved ENSO prediction.

  5. Middle and Late Pleistocene glaciations in the southwestern Pamir and their effects on topography [Topography of the SW Pamir shaped by middle-late Pleistocene glaciation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stübner, Konstanze; Grin, Elena; Hidy, Alan J.; Schaller, Mirjam; Gold, Ryan D.


    Glacial chronologies provide insight into the evolution of paleo-landscapes, paleoclimate, topography, and the erosion processes that shape mountain ranges. In the Pamir of Central Asia, glacial morphologies and deposits indicate extensive past glaciations, whose timing and extent remain poorly constrained. Geomorphic data and 15 new "1"0Be exposure ages from moraine boulders and roches moutonnées in the southwestern Pamir document multiple Pleistocene glacial stages. The oldest exposure ages, View the MathML source113 ± 10ka, underestimate the age of the earliest preserved glacial advance and imply that the modern relief of the southwestern Pamir (peaks at ~5000–6000 m a.s.l.; valleys at ~2000–3000 m a.s.l.) already existed in the late Middle Pleistocene. Younger exposure ages (~40–80 ka, ~30 ka) complement the existing Central Asian glacial chronology and reflect successively less extensive Late Pleistocene glaciations. The topography of the Pamir and the glacial chronologies suggest that, in the Middle Pleistocene, an ice cap or ice field occupied the eastern Pamir high-altitude plateau, whereas westward flowing valley glaciers incised the southwestern Pamir. Since the Late Pleistocene deglaciation, the rivers of the southwestern Pamir adjusted to the glacially shaped landscape. As a result, localized rapid fluvial incision and drainage network reorganization reflect the transient nature of the deglaciated landscape.

  6. The Taxonomic and Phylogenetic Affinities of Bunopithecus sericus, a Fossil Hylobatid from the Pleistocene of China (United States)

    Ortiz, Alejandra; Pilbrow, Varsha; Villamil, Catalina I.; Korsgaard, Jessica G.; Bailey, Shara E.; Harrison, Terry


    Fossil hylobatids are rare, but are known from late Miocene and Pleistocene sites throughout East Asia. The best-known fossil hylobatid from the Pleistocene of China is a left mandibular fragment with M2-3 (AMNH 18534), recovered from a pit deposit near the village of Yanjinggou in Wanzhou District, Chongqing Province. Matthew and Granger described this specimen in 1923 as a new genus and species, Bunopithecus sericus. Establishing the age of Bunopithecus has proved difficult because the Yanjinggou collection represents a mixed fauna of different ages, but it likely comes from early or middle Pleistocene deposits. Although the Bunopithecus specimen has featured prominently in discussions of hylobatid evolution and nomenclature, its systematic status has never been satisfactorily resolved. The present study reexamines the taxonomic and phylogenetic relationships of Bunopithecus by carrying out a detailed comparative morphometric study of its lower molars in relation to a large sample of modern hylobatids. Our results show that differences in M2 and M3 discriminate extant hylobatids fairly well, at least at the generic level, and that AMNH 18534 is not attributable to Hylobates, Nomascus or Symphalangus. Support for a close relationship between Bunopithecus and Hoolock is more equivocal. In most multivariate analyses, Bunopithecus presents a unique morphological pattern that falls outside the range of variation of any hylobatid taxon, although its distance from the cluster represented by extant hoolocks is relatively small. Our results support the generic distinction of Bunopithecus, which most likely represents an extinct crown hylobatid, and one that may possibly represent the sister taxon to Hoolock. PMID:26154175

  7. High-Resolution Modeling of ENSO-Induced Precipitation in the Tropical Andes: Implications for Proxy Interpretation. (United States)

    Kiefer, J.; Karamperidou, C.


    Clastic sediment flux into high-elevation Andean lakes is controlled by glacial processes and soil erosion caused by high precipitation events, making these lakes suitable archives of past climate. To wit, sediment records from Laguna Pallcacocha in Ecuador have been interpreted as proxies of ENSO variability, owing to increased precipitation in the greater region during El Niño events. However, the location of the lake's watershed, the presence of glaciers, and the different impacts of ENSO on precipitation in the eastern vs western Andes have challenged the suitability of the Pallcacocha record as an ENSO proxy. Here, we employ WRF, a high-resolution regional mesoscale weather prediction model, to investigate the circulation dynamics, sources of moisture, and resulting precipitation response in the L. Pallcacocha region during different flavors of El Niño and La Niña events, and in the presence or absence of ice caps. In patricular, we investigate Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP), coastal El Niño, and La Niña events. We validate the model simulations against spatially interpolated station measurements and reanalysis data. We find that during EP events, moisture is primarily advected from the Pacific, whereas during CP events, moisture primarily originates from the Atlantic. More moisture is available during EP events, which implies higher precipitation rates. Furthermore, we find that precipitation during EP events is mostly non-convective in contrast to primarily convective precipitation during CP events. Finally, a synthesis of the sedimentary record and the EP:CP ratio of accumulated precipitation and specific humidity in the L. Pallcacocha region allows us to assess whether past changes in the relative frequency of the two ENSO flavors may have been recorded in paleoclimate archives in this region.

  8. Pleistocene niche stability and lineage diversification in the subtropical spider Araneus omnicolor (Araneidae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elen A Peres

    Full Text Available The influence of Quaternary climate oscillations on the diversification of the South American fauna is being increasingly explored. However, most of these studies have focused on taxa that are endemic to tropical environments, and relatively few have treated organisms restricted to subtropical biomes. Here we used an integrative phylogeographical framework to investigate the effects of these climate events on the ecological niche and genetic patterns of the subtropical orb-weaver spider Araneus omnicolor (Araneidae. We analyzed the mitochondrial (Cytochrome Oxidase I, COI and nuclear (Internal Transcribed Subunit II, ITS2 DNA of 130 individuals throughout the species' range, and generated distribution models in three different climate scenarios [present, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, and Last Interglacial Maximum (LIG]. Additionally, we used an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC approach to compare possible demographic scenarios and select the hypothesis that better explains the genetic patterns of A. omnicolor. We obtained high haplotype diversity but low nucleotide variation among sequences. The population structure and demographic analyses showed discrepancies between markers, suggesting male-biased dispersal in the species. The time-calibrated COI phylogenetic inference showed a recent diversification of lineages (Middle/Late Pleistocene, while the paleoclimate modeling indicated niche stability since ~120 Kya. The ABC results agreed with the niche models, supporting a panmictic population as the most likely historical scenario for the species. These results indicate that A. omnicolor experienced no niche or population reductions during the Late Pleistocene, despite the intense landscape modifications that occurred in the subtropical region, and that other factors beside LGM and LIG climate oscillations might have contributed to the demographic history of this species. This pattern may be related to the high dispersal ability and wide

  9. Significance of Two New Pleistocene Plant Records from Western Europe (United States)

    Field, Michael H.; Velichkevich, Felix Y.; Andrieu-Ponel, Valerie; Woltz, Phillipe


    The first records of extinct Caulinia goretskyi (Dorofeev) Dorofeev (synonym Najas goretskyi Dorofeev) in western Europe and of Potamogeton occidentalis M.H. Field sp. nov. were obtained from plant macrofossil analyses of Middle Pleistocene temperate stage deposits exposed at Trez Rouz, Brittany, France. Palynological assemblages recovered suggest correlation with the Holsteinian Stage. This discovery greatly expands the western limit of the paleogeographical distribution of Caulinia goretskyi. The record of Potamogeton occidentalis indicates an affinity with the eastern Asiatic flora, as the fruits resemble those of the extant Potamogeton maackianus A. Bennett. Other extinct Pleistocene species related to P. maackianus have been described, and it is possible to follow the development of this group through the Pleistocene in the European fossil record. These new finds illustrate the importance of a complete paleobotanical approach (both plant macrofossil and palynological analyses). The plant macrofossil assemblages not only provide detailed insight into local vegetation and environment, because they are often not transported long distances (in temperate areas) and can frequently be identified to species level; they can also offer the opportunity to investigate Pleistocene evolutionary trends.

  10. The large-scale ENSO event, the El Niño and other important regional features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available L'EVENEMENT ENSO A GRANDE ECHELLE, EL NIÑO ET AUTRES CARACTERISTIQUES REGIONALES IMPORTANTES. En ce qui concerne cette activité, on a ramassé - et on continue de le faire - une information coordonnée et améliorée. Cependant, les informations année après année sur les changements climatiques en lien avec l’Oscillation du Sud (SO sont limitées de façon primaire à la période comprise entre l’année 622 et nos jours. La fluctuation océano-atmosphérique récurrente et à grande échelle, El Niño/ Oscillation du Sud (ENSO, qui se présente sous les basses latitudes depuis l’Afrique orientale vers l’est jusqu’aux Amériques, se manifeste en gros comme une «balançoire» dans les conditions océano-atmosphériques entre la zone de l’Océan Indien tropical et celles de l’Océan Pacifique tropical. L’ENSO est en lien avec une phase de bas indice de la SO et est associé, du côté occidental de la «balançoire», à une sécheresse en Australie occidentale et septentrionale, une sècheresse par l’est de la mousson en Indonésie, une pluie déficiente de la mousson-est d’été en Inde et une pluie déficiente de la mousson d’été dans la montagne éthiopienne (qui débouche sur une faible contribution au système du Nil. Par opposition, du côté oriental de la «balançoire», celle-ci est en lien avec El Niño, avec des températures superficielles de la mer (TSM anormalement hautes, des pluies au-dessus de la normale dans le Pacifique équatorial central et oriental et des pluies anormalement fortes dans le Chili sub-tropical. Le haut indice (phase anti-Niño de la SO est en lien, du côté occidental de la «balançoire», avec des pluies anormalement fortes en Australe orientale et septentrionale, des pluies de mousson de l’est anormalement fortes en Indonésie, des pluies de mousson d’été au-dessus de la normale en Inde, et une quantité d’eau anormalement grande qui se déverse dans le Nil, suite aux pluies de

  11. Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on global hydropower production (United States)

    Ng, Jia Yi; Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano


    Hydropower contributes significantly to meeting the world's energy demand, accounting for at least 16% of total electrical output. Its role as a mature and cost competitive renewable energy source is expected to become increasingly important as the world transits to a low-carbon economy. A key component of hydropower production is runoff, which is highly dependent on precipitation and other climate variables. As such, it becomes critical to understand how the drivers of climate variability impact hydropower production. One globally-important driver is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). While it is known that ENSO influences hydrological processes, the potential value of its associated teleconnection in design related tasks has yet to be explored at the global scale. Our work seeks to characterize the impact of ENSO on global hydropower production so as to quantify the potential for increased production brought about by incorporating climate information within reservoir operating models. We study over 1,500 hydropower reservoirs - representing more than half the world's hydropower capacity. A historical monthly reservoir inflow time series is assigned to each reservoir from a 0.5 degree gridded global runoff dataset. Reservoir operating rules are designed using stochastic dynamic programming, and storage dynamics are simulated to assess performance under the climate conditions of the 20th century. Results show that hydropower reservoirs in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, and Eastern China are strongly influenced by ENSO episodes. Statistically significant lag correlations between ENSO indicators and hydropower production demonstrate predictive skill with lead times up to several months. Our work highlights the potential for using these indicators to increase the contribution of existing hydropower plants to global energy supplies.

  12. Un análisis de la estructura termal de la estación costera 'La Libertad' y su relación con los eventos ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    érmica en esta estación costera. AN ANALYSIS OF THE THERMAL STRUCTURE AT THE SHORE STATION «LA LIBERTAD» AND ITS RELATION WITH ENSO EVENTS. The Navy Oceanographic Institute maintains from 1990 until this date a shore station 10 nautical miles from the La Libertad harbor (Santa Elena Peninsula at the Ecuadorian coast. Where the water column from the surface to 100 m. depth was monitored each 20 days. From the preliminary analysis we had seen that the distribution of the isotherms responds to the presence of the ENSO events. The Ecuadorian coast is submitted, during an ENSO event to the influence of equatorial waves. During, their passage, this waves produce an elevation of the mean sea level and make deeper the isotherms. Reason to consider that the isotherms distribution has relationship with the occurrence of an ENSO events in front of our coast. On the other hand we determine the relationship between the mean sea level and the depth of the isotherms. For this effect the thermal distribution of the shore station at La Libertad will be simplified by selecting the of 20°C isotherm. It is considered a representative of the thermal distribution in this shore station.

  13. Impact of atmospheric model resolution on simulation of ENSO feedback processes: a coupled model study (United States)

    Hua, Lijuan; Chen, Lin; Rong, Xinyao; Su, Jingzhi; Wang, Lu; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang


    This study examines El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related air-sea feedback processes in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) to gauge model errors and pin down their sources in ENSO simulation. Three horizontal resolutions of the atmospheric component (T42, T63 and T106) of the CGCM are used to investigate how the simulated ENSO behaviors are affected by the resolution. We find that air-sea feedback processes in the three experiments mainly differ in terms of both thermodynamic and dynamic feedbacks. We also find that these processes are simulated more reasonably in the highest resolution version than in the other two lower resolution versions. The difference in the thermodynamic feedback arises from the difference in the shortwave-radiation (SW) feedback. Due to the severely (mildly) excessive cold tongue in the lower (higher) resolution version, the SW feedback is severely (mildly) underestimated. The main difference in the dynamic feedback processes lies in the thermocline feedback and the zonal-advection feedback, both of which are caused by the difference in the anomalous thermocline response to anomalous zonal wind stress. The difference in representing the anomalous thermocline response is attributed to the difference in meridional structure of zonal wind stress anomaly in the three simulations, which is linked to meridional resolution.

  14. Plio-Pleistocene aardvarks (Mammalia, Tubulidentata from East Africa

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    T. Lehmann


    Full Text Available The Tubulidentata are unique among mammals for being the only order represented nowadays by a single living species, Orycteropus afer: the aardvark. Nevertheless, it is one of the least studied mammalian orders. Aardvarks are currently distributed all over sub-Saharan Africa, but the fossil record extends their spatial range to Europe and Asia. The earliest known Tubulidentata are ca. 20 million years old. About 14 species and three to four genera have been recognised so far, but since the late Pliocene, aardvarks have only been represented by a single genus and are restricted to Africa. The extant aardvark is the only species of Tubulidentata with a large distribution area, i.e. the African continent. There are three known Plio-Pleistocene African species of aardvark: Orycteropus afer (Pallas, 1766, O. crassidens MacInnes, 1956, and O. djourabensis Lehmann et al., 2004. Fossils of these species have been discovered in North-Africa, Kenya, and Chad respectively. The present study is focused on the aardvark material found in the Plio-Pleistocene of East Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya. New specimens from Asa Issie (Ethiopia and East Turkana (Kenya are described, and published ones are re-examined in the light of the latest discoveries. This study demonstrates that Kenyan specimens identified as O. crassidens are in fact representatives of the Chadian O. djourabensis. Moreover, additional material from Ethiopia and Kenya shows a close relationship with the latter species too. The presence of specimens of O. djourabensis in Chad and in Kenya during the Plio-Pleistocene implies that this taxon is the oldest-known species of aardvark to have experienced a continental dispersal. It also shows that Tubulidentates were able to cross Africa from east-west during Plio-Pleistocene times, despite the presence of the Rift Valley. It is however not possible to infer the centre of origin of O. djourabensis. Finally, this study suggests that two species of aardvark

  15. Reforecasting the 1972-73 ENSO Event and the Monsoon Drought Over India (United States)

    Shukla, J.; Huang, B.; Shin, C. S.


    This paper presents the results of reforcasting the 1972-73 ENSO event and the Indian summer monsoon drought using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), initialized with the Eu­ropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global ocean reanalysis version 4, and observation-based land and atmosphere reanalyses. The results of this paper demonstrate that if the modern day climate models were available during the 1970's, even with the limited observations at that time, it should have been possible to predict the 1972-73 ENSO event and the associated monsoon drought. These results further suggest the necessity of continuing to develop realistic models of the climate system for accurate and reliable seasonal predictions. This paper also presents a comparison of the 1972-73 El Niño reforecast with the 1997-98 case. As the strongest event during 1958-78, the 1972-73 El Niño is distinguished from the 1997-98 one by its early termination. Initialized in the spring season, the forecast system predicted the onset and development of both events reasonably well, although the reforecasts underestimate the ENSO peaking magnitudes. On the other hand, the reforecasts initialized in spring and fall of 1972 persistently predicted lingering wind and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the spring of 1973. Initialized in fall of 1997, the reforecast also grossly overestimates the peaking westerly wind and warm SST anomalies in the 1997-98 El Niño.In 1972-73, both the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies (for example Nino 3 Index) and the summer monsoon drought over India and the adjoining areas were predicted remarkably well. In contrast, the Eastern Pacific SST anomalies for the 1997-98 event were predicted well, but the normal summer monsoon rainfall over India of 1997 was not predicted by the model. This case study of the 1972-73 event is part of a larger, comprehensive reforecast project

  16. Shaped by uneven Pleistocene climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xinlei; Dong, Feng; Lei, Fumin


    had different impacts on different populations: clade N expanded after the last glacial maximum (LGM), whereas milder Pleistocene climate of east Asia allowed clade SE a longer expansion time (since MIS 5); clade SW expanded over a similarly long time as clade SE, which is untypical for European...

  17. Modulation of the SSTA decadal variation on ENSO events and relationships of SSTA With LOD,SOI, etc (United States)

    Liao, D. C.; Zhou, Y. H.; Liao, X. H.


    Interannual and decadal components of the length of day (LOD), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Sea Surface Temperature anomaly (SSTA) in Nino regions are extracted by band-pass filtering, and used for research of the modulation of the SSTA on the ENSO events. Results show that besides the interannual components, the decadal components in SSTA have strong impacts on monitoring and representing of the ENSO events. When the ENSO events are strong, the modulation of the decadal components of the SSTA tends to prolong the life-time of the events and enlarge the extreme anomalies of the SST, while the ENSO events, which are so weak that they can not be detected by the interannual components of the SSTA, can also be detected with the help of the modulation of the SSTA decadal components. The study further draws attention to the relationships of the SSTA interannual and decadal components with those of LOD, SOI, both of the sea level pressure anomalies (SLPA) and the trade wind anomalies (TWA) in tropic Pacific, and also with those of the axial components of the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and oceanic angular momentum (OAM). Results of the squared coherence and coherent phases among them reveal close connections with the SSTA and almost all of the parameters mentioned above on the interannual time scales, while on the decadal time scale significant connections are among the SSTA and SOI, SLPA, TWA, ?3w and ?3w+v as well, and slight weaker connections between the SSTA and LOD, ?3pib and ?3bp

  18. Microplankton biomass and diversity in the Vietnamese upwelling area during SW monsoon under normal conditions and after an ENSO event

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loick-Wilde, Natalie; Bombar, Deniz; Doan, Hai Nhu


    to show how climatological-driven changes can have a significant influence on the distribution of microplankton communities and their biomass via its impact on nutrient concentrations in the water column. The first summer in July 2003 followed a weak El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event...... (10–20 µm) prevailed ubiquitously during reduced upwelling. During normal upwelling, the diatom Rhizosolenia sp. dominated the cell-carbon biomass in the silicate poor upwelling waters. Trichodesmium erythraeum dominated in the Mekong-influenced and nutrient depleted offshore waters, where it co......Investigating microplankton biomass and diversity under different climatological conditions is key to the understanding of cascading effects of climate change on nutrient cycles and biological productivity. Here we have used data collected during two contrasting summers along the coast of Viet Nam...

  19. Volcanic Tephra ejected in south eastern Asia is the sole cause of all historic ENSO events. This natural aerosol plume has been intensified by an anthropogenic plume in the same region in recent decades which has intensified some ENSO events and altered the Southern Oscillation Index characteristics (United States)

    Potts, K. A.


    ENSO events are the most significant perturbation of the climate system. Previous attempts to link ENSO with volcanic eruptions typically failed because only large eruptions across the globe which eject tephra into the stratosphere were considered. I analyse all volcanic eruptions in South Eastern (SE) Asia (10ºS to 10ºN and from 90ºE to 160ºE) the most volcanically active area in the world with over 23% of all eruptions in the Global Volcanism Program database occurring here and with 5 volcanoes stated to have erupted nearly continuously for 30 years. SE Asia is also the region where the convective arm of the thermally direct Walker Circulation occurs driven by the intense equatorial solar radiation which creates the high surface temperature. The volcanic tephra plume intercepts some of the solar radiation by absorption/reflection which cools the surface and heats the atmosphere creating a temperature inversion compared to periods without the plume. This reduces convection and causes the Walker Cell and Trade Winds to weaken. This reduced wind speed causes the central Pacific Ocean to warm which creates convection there which further weakens the Walker Cell. With the reduced wind stress the western Pacific warm pool migrates east. This creates an ENSO event which continues until the tephra plume reduces, typically when the SE Asian monsoon commences, and convection is re-established over SE Asia and the Pacific warm pool migrates back to the west. Correlations of SE Asian tephra and the ENSO indices are typically over 0.80 at p indices. If two events A and B correlate 5 options are available: 1. A causes B; 2. B causes A; 3. C, another event, causes A &B simultaneously; 4. It's a coincidence; and 5. The relationship is complex with feedback. The volcanic correlations only allow options 1 or 4 as ENSO cannot cause volcanoes to erupt and are backed up by several independent satellite datasets. I conclude volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols over SE Asia are the

  20. Land–sea coupling of early Pleistocene glacial cycles in the southern North Sea exhibit dominant Northern Hemisphere forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. H. Donders


    Full Text Available We assess the disputed phase relations between forcing and climatic response in the early Pleistocene with a spliced Gelasian (∼ 2.6–1.8 Ma multi-proxy record from the southern North Sea basin. The cored sections couple climate evolution on both land and sea during the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation (NHG in NW Europe, providing the first well-constrained stratigraphic sequence of the classic terrestrial Praetiglian stage. Terrestrial signals were derived from the Eridanos paleoriver, a major fluvial system that contributed a large amount of freshwater to the northeast Atlantic. Due to its latitudinal position, the Eridanos catchment was likely affected by early Pleistocene NHG, leading to intermittent shutdown and reactivation of river flow and sediment transport. Here we apply organic geochemistry, palynology, carbonate isotope geochemistry, and seismostratigraphy to document both vegetation changes in the Eridanos catchment and regional surface water conditions and relate them to early Pleistocene glacial–interglacial cycles and relative sea level changes. Paleomagnetic and palynological data provide a solid integrated timeframe that ties the obliquity cycles, expressed in the borehole geophysical logs, to Marine Isotope Stages (MIS 103 to 92, independently confirmed by a local benthic oxygen isotope record. Marine and terrestrial palynological and organic geochemical records provide high-resolution reconstructions of relative terrestrial and sea surface temperature (TT and SST, vegetation, relative sea level, and coastal influence.During the prominent cold stages MIS 98 and 96, as well as 94, the record indicates increased non-arboreal vegetation, low SST and TT, and low relative sea level. During the warm stages MIS 99, 97, and 95 we infer increased stratification of the water column together with a higher percentage of arboreal vegetation, high SST, and relative sea level maxima. The early Pleistocene distinct

  1. Impacts of high-latitude volcanic eruptions on ENSO and AMOC. (United States)

    Pausata, Francesco S R; Chafik, Leon; Caballero, Rodrigo; Battisti, David S


    Large volcanic eruptions can have major impacts on global climate, affecting both atmospheric and ocean circulation through changes in atmospheric chemical composition and optical properties. The residence time of volcanic aerosol from strong eruptions is roughly 2-3 y. Attention has consequently focused on their short-term impacts, whereas the long-term, ocean-mediated response has not been well studied. Most studies have focused on tropical eruptions; high-latitude eruptions have drawn less attention because their impacts are thought to be merely hemispheric rather than global. No study to date has investigated the long-term effects of high-latitude eruptions. Here, we use a climate model to show that large summer high-latitude eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere cause strong hemispheric cooling, which could induce an El Niño-like anomaly, in the equatorial Pacific during the first 8-9 mo after the start of the eruption. The hemispherically asymmetric cooling shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward, triggering a weakening of the trade winds over the western and central equatorial Pacific that favors the development of an El Niño-like anomaly. In the model used here, the specified high-latitude eruption also leads to a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the first 25 y after the eruption, followed by a weakening lasting at least 35 y. The long-lived changes in the AMOC strength also alter the variability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

  2. Pleistocene vertebrates of the Yukon Territory (United States)

    Harington, C. R.


    Unglaciated parts of the Yukon constitute one of the most important areas in North America for yielding Pleistocene vertebrate fossils. Nearly 30 vertebrate faunal localities are reviewed spanning a period of about 1.6 Ma (million years ago) to the close of the Pleistocene some 10 000 BP (radiocarbon years before present, taken as 1950). The vertebrate fossils represent at least 8 species of fishes, 1 amphibian, 41 species of birds and 83 species of mammals. Dominant among the large mammals are: steppe bison ( Bison priscus), horse ( Equus sp.), woolly mammoth ( Mammuthus primigenius), and caribou ( Rangifer tarandus) - signature species of the Mammoth Steppe fauna ( Fig. 1), which was widespread from the British Isles, through northern Europe, and Siberia to Alaska, Yukon and adjacent Northwest Territories. The Yukon faunas extend from Herschel Island in the north to Revenue Creek in the south and from the Alaskan border in the west to Ketza River in the east. The Yukon holds evidence of the earliest-known people in North America. Artifacts made from bison, mammoth and caribou bones from Bluefish Caves, Old Crow Basin and Dawson City areas show that people had a substantial knowledge of making and using bone tools at least by 25 000 BP, and possibly as early as 40 000 BP. A suggested chronological sequence of Yukon Pleistocene vertebrates ( Table 1) facilitates comparison of selected faunas and indicates the known duration of various taxa.

  3. The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario (United States)

    Fer, Istem; Tietjen, Britta; Jeltsch, Florian; Wolff, Christian


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security.

  4. Pleistocene paleo-groundwater as a pristine fresh water resource in southern Germany – evidence from stable and radiogenic isotopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geldern, Robert van; Baier, Alfons; Subert, Hannah L.; Kowol, Sigrid; Balk, Laura; Barth, Johannes A.C.


    Shallow groundwater aquifers are often influenced by anthropogenic contaminants or increased nutrient levels. In contrast, deeper aquifers hold potentially pristine paleo-waters that are not influenced by modern recharge. They thus represent important water resources, but their recharge history is often unknown. In this study groundwater from two aquifers in southern Germany were analyzed for their hydrogen and oxygen stable isotope compositions. One sampling campaign targeted the upper aquifer that is actively recharged by modern precipitation, whereas the second campaign sampled the confined, deep Benkersandstein aquifer. The groundwater samples from both aquifers were compared to the local meteoric water line to investigate sources and conditions of groundwater recharge. In addition, the deep groundwater was dated by tritium and radiocarbon analyses. Stable and radiogenic isotope data indicate that the deep-aquifer groundwater was not part of the hydrological water cycle in the recent human history. The results show that the groundwater is older than ∼20,000 years and most likely originates from isotopically depleted melt waters of the Pleistocene ice age. Today, the use of this aquifer is strictly regulated to preserve the pristine water. Clear identification of such non-renewable paleo-waters by means of isotope geochemistry will help local water authorities to enact and justify measures for conservation of these valuable resources for future generations in the context of a sustainable water management. - Highlights: • Groundwater from deep aquifer identified as paleo-water with age over 20,000 years. • Low stable isotope values indicate recharge during Pleistocene. • Shallow aquifer mirrors stable isotope signature of average modern precipitation. • Identification of non-renewable paleo-waters enhance sustainable water management. • Strict protection measures of authorities justified by isotope geochemistry

  5. Pleistocene paleo-groundwater as a pristine fresh water resource in southern Germany – evidence from stable and radiogenic isotopes

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    Geldern, Robert van, E-mail: [Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU), Department of Geography and Geosciences, GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Schlossgarten 5, 91054 Erlangen (Germany); Baier, Alfons; Subert, Hannah L. [Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU), Department of Geography and Geosciences, GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Schlossgarten 5, 91054 Erlangen (Germany); Kowol, Sigrid [Erlanger Stadtwerke AG, Äußere Brucker Str. 33, 91052 Erlangen (Germany); Balk, Laura; Barth, Johannes A.C. [Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU), Department of Geography and Geosciences, GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Schlossgarten 5, 91054 Erlangen (Germany)


    Shallow groundwater aquifers are often influenced by anthropogenic contaminants or increased nutrient levels. In contrast, deeper aquifers hold potentially pristine paleo-waters that are not influenced by modern recharge. They thus represent important water resources, but their recharge history is often unknown. In this study groundwater from two aquifers in southern Germany were analyzed for their hydrogen and oxygen stable isotope compositions. One sampling campaign targeted the upper aquifer that is actively recharged by modern precipitation, whereas the second campaign sampled the confined, deep Benkersandstein aquifer. The groundwater samples from both aquifers were compared to the local meteoric water line to investigate sources and conditions of groundwater recharge. In addition, the deep groundwater was dated by tritium and radiocarbon analyses. Stable and radiogenic isotope data indicate that the deep-aquifer groundwater was not part of the hydrological water cycle in the recent human history. The results show that the groundwater is older than ∼20,000 years and most likely originates from isotopically depleted melt waters of the Pleistocene ice age. Today, the use of this aquifer is strictly regulated to preserve the pristine water. Clear identification of such non-renewable paleo-waters by means of isotope geochemistry will help local water authorities to enact and justify measures for conservation of these valuable resources for future generations in the context of a sustainable water management. - Highlights: • Groundwater from deep aquifer identified as paleo-water with age over 20,000 years. • Low stable isotope values indicate recharge during Pleistocene. • Shallow aquifer mirrors stable isotope signature of average modern precipitation. • Identification of non-renewable paleo-waters enhance sustainable water management. • Strict protection measures of authorities justified by isotope geochemistry.

  6. Effects of climatic and geological processes during the pleistocene on the evolutionary history of the northern cavefish, Amblyopsis spelaea (teleostei: amblyopsidae). (United States)

    Niemiller, Matthew L; McCandless, James R; Reynolds, R Graham; Caddle, James; Near, Thomas J; Tillquist, Christopher R; Pearson, William D; Fitzpatrick, Benjamin M


    Climatic and geological processes associated with glaciation cycles during the Pleistocene have been implicated in influencing patterns of genetic variation and promoting speciation of temperate flora and fauna. However, determining the factors promoting divergence and speciation is often difficult in many groups because of our limited understanding of potential vicariant barriers and connectivity between populations. Pleistocene glacial cycles are thought to have significantly influenced the distribution and diversity of subterranean invertebrates; however, impacts on subterranean aquatic vertebrates are less clear. We employed several hypothesis-driven approaches to assess the impacts of Pleistocene climatic and geological changes on the Northern Cavefish, Amblyopsis spelaea, whose current distribution occurs near the southern extent of glacial advances in North America. Our results show that the modern Ohio River has been a significant barrier to dispersal and is correlated with patterns of genetic divergence. We infer that populations were isolated in two refugia located north and south of the Ohio River during the most recent two glacial cycles with evidence of demographic expansion in the northern isolate. Finally, we conclude that climatic and geological processes have resulted in the formation of cryptic forms and advocate recognition of two distinct phylogenetic lineages currently recognized as A. spelaea. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  7. Massive bleaching of coral reefs induced by the 2010 ENSO, Puerto Cabello, Venezuela

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    Carlos del Mónaco


    Full Text Available El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO has generated global coral massive bleaching. The aim of this work was to evaluate the massive bleaching of coral reefs in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela derived from ENSO 2010. We evaluated the bleaching of reefs at five localities both at three and five meter depth. The coral cover and densities of colonies were estimated. We recorded living coral cover, number and diameter of bleached and nonbleached colonies of each coral species. The colonies were classified according to the proportion of bleached area. Satellite images (Modis Scar were analyzed for chlorophyll-a concentration and temperature in August, September, October and November from 2008-2010. Precipitation, wind speed and air temperature information was evaluated in meteorological data for 2009 and 2010. A total of 58.3% of colonies, belonging to 11 hexacoral species, were affected and the greatest responses were observed in Colpophyllia natans, Montastraea annularis and Montastraea faveolata. The most affected localities were closer to the mainland and had a bleached proportion up to 62.73±36.55%, with the highest proportion of affected colonies, whereas the farthest locality showed 20.25±14.00% bleached and the smallest proportion. The salinity in situ varied between 30 and 33ppm and high levels of turbidity were observed. According to the satellite images, in 2010 the surface water temperatura reached 31ºC in August, September and October, and resulted higher than those registered in 2008 and 2009. Regionally, chlorophyll values were higher in 2010 than in 2008 and 2009. The meteorological data indicated that precipitation in November 2010 was three times higher than in November 2009. Massive coral bleaching occurred due to a three month period of high temperatures followed by one month of intense ENSO-associated precipitation. However, this latter factor was likely the trigger because of the bleaching gradient observed. Rev. Biol. Trop. 60 (2

  8. Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones and their Relationship with ENSO in springtime (United States)

    Reboita, M. S.; Ambrizzi, T.; Da Rocha, R.


    Extratropical cyclones occurrence is associated with the teleconnection mechanisms that produce climate variability. Among these mechanisms we have El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Some works have indicated that during the ENSO positive phase there are more cyclogenetic conditions in some parts of the globe as the southwest of South Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to verify if the extratropical cyclones number and location are altered in the different ENSO phases in the austral spring over the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The Melbourne University automatic tracking scheme was used to determine the cyclone climatology from 1980 to 2012. All cyclones that appear with lifetime higher or equal to 24 hours in the sea level pressure data from National Centers for Environment Prediction reanalysis I were included in the climatology. El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN) and Neutral (N) years were identified through the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) from Climate Prediction Center/NOAA. The average number of cyclones in the spring over the SH is similar in the EN (200), N (184) and LN (197) episodes. By latitude bands, during EN episodes the cyclones occurrence reduces in 16% between 70-60 degrees and increases in ~15% between 80-70 and 50-40 degrees. On the other hand, during the LN episodes, the cyclones are 17% more frequent in 50-60 degrees and 22% less frequent in 30-20 degrees. One more detailed analysis of the cyclones trajectory density (that is a statistic product of the tracking algorithm) shows that in the South Atlantic Ocean, near the southeast of South America, the number of cyclones in EN years is higher than in the neutral period and lower than in the LN years. In the Indian Ocean, the EN year is characterized by a cyclones reduction in the west and east sector, near the continents. In the Pacific Ocean, the region southward the New Zealand presents more cyclones occurrence in EN years.

  9. Spatial and seasonal responses of precipitation in the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins to ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole modes: implications for flooding and drought (United States)

    Pervez, M. S.; Henebry, G. M.


    We evaluated the spatial and temporal responses of precipitation in the basins as modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean (IO) dipole modes using observed precipitation records at 43 stations across the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins from 1982 to 2010. Daily observed precipitation records were extracted from Global Surface Summary of the Day dataset and spatial and monthly anomalies were computed. The anomalies were averaged for the years influenced by climate modes combinations. Occurrences of El Niño alone significantly reduced (60% and 88% of baseline in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins, respectively) precipitation during the monsoon months in the northwestern and central Ganges basin and across the Brahmaputra basin. In contrast, co-occurrence of La Niña and a positive IO dipole mode significantly enhanced (135% and 160% of baseline, respectively) precipitation across both basins. During the co-occurrence of neutral phases in both climate modes (occurring 13 out of 28 yr), precipitation remained below average to average in the agriculturally extensive areas of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, eastern Nepal, and the Rajshahi district in Bangladesh in the Ganges basin and northern Bangladesh, Meghalaya, Assam, and Arunachal Pradesh in the Brahmaputra basin. This pattern implies that a regular water deficit is likely in these areas with implications for the agriculture sector due to its reliance on consistent rainfall for successful production. Major flooding and drought occurred as a consequence of the interactive effects of the ENSO and IO dipole modes, with the sole exception of extreme precipitation and flooding during El Niño events. This observational analysis will facilitate well informed decision making in minimizing natural hazard risks and climate impacts on agriculture, and supports development of strategies ensuring optimized use of water resources in best management practice under changing climate.

  10. High-latitude steppe vegetation and the mineral nutrition of Pleistocene herbivores (United States)

    Davydov, S. P.; Davydova, A.; Makarevich, R.; Loranty, M. M.; Boeskorov, G.


    High-latitude steppes were widespread and zonal in the Late Pleistocene and formed a landscape basis for the Mammoth Biome. Now the patches of these steppes survived on steep slopes under southern aspects. These steppes serve as unique information sources about the Late Pleistocene "Mammoth" steppe. Numerous data obtained by palynological, carpological, and DNA analysis of plant remains from feces and stomach contents of Pleistocene herbivore mummies, as well as from buried soils and enclosing deposits show that they are similar to modern steppe plant assemblage in taxa composition. Plant's nutrient concentrations are of fundamental importance across Pleistocene grass-rich ecosystems because of their role in the support of large herbivores. The average weight of an adult mammoth skeleton (about 0.5 tons) and of a woolly rhinoceros (about 0.2 tons) clearly suggests this. Detailed studies on fossil bone remains showed mineral deficiency in large Pleistocene herbivores. A three-year study of ash and mineral contents of two types of relict steppe vegetation at the Kolyma Lowland, Arctic Siberia has been carried out. Nowadays refugia of similar vegetation are located not far (1 - 15km) from the Yedoma permafrost outcrops were abundant fossil remains are found. Dominant species of the steppe vegetation were sampled. Preliminary studies indicate that the ash-content varied 1.5-2 times in speceies of steppe herbs. The Ca, P, Mg, K element contents was higher for most steppe species than in the local herbaceous vegetation, especially in Ca and P. One of the most important elements of the mineral nutrition, the phosphorus, was always found in higher concentrations in the steppe vegetation than in plants of recently dominant landscapes of the study area. It should be noted that the mineral nutrient content of the modern steppe vegetation of Siberian Arctic is comparable to that of the recent zonal steppe of Transbaikal Region. This study supports the hypothesis that

  11. On the unstable ENSO-Western North Pacific Monsoon relation during the 20th Century (United States)

    Vega Martín, Inmaculada; Gallego Puyol, David; Ribera Rodriguez, Pedro; Gómez Delgado, Francisco de Paula; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina


    The concept of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM) appeared for the first time in 1987. Unlike the Indian Summer Monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon, the WNPSM is an oceanic monsoon driven essentially by the meridional gradient of sea surface temperature. Its circulation is characterized by a northwest-southeast oriented monsoon trough with intense precipitation and low-level southwesterlies and upper-tropospheric easterlies in the region [100°-130° E, 5°-15°N]. Although this monsoon is mainly oceanic, it modulates the precipitation of densely populated areas such as the Philippines. To date, the WNPSM has been quantified by the so-called Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI), an index based on wind anomalies over large domains of the Western Pacific. The requirement of continuous observed wind over remote oceanic areas to compute the WNPMI has limited its availability to the 1949-2014 period. In this work we have extended the index by almost 100 years by using historical observations of wind direction taken aboard ships. Our Western North Pacific Directional Index (WNPDI), is defined as the sum of the persistence of the low-level westerly winds in [5°-15°N, 100°-130°E] and easterly winds in [20°-30°N, 110°-140°E]. The new WNPDI index is highly correlated to the existent WNPMI for the concurrent period (1948-2014). (r=+0.88, p<0.01), indicating that the new approach based in the use of wind direction alone (a variable that can be considered instrumental even before the 20th Century), captures most of the monsoonal signal. Previous studies found that, during the second part of the 20th Century the WNPSM exhibited two basic characteristics: first a large interannual variability and second, a significant relation between the WNPSM and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a way in which a strong (weak) WNPSM tends to occur during the El Niño (La Niña) developing year or/and La Niña (El Niño) decaying year. The analysis of

  12. Assessment of geomorphological and hydrological changes produced by Pleistocene glaciations in a Patagonian basin (United States)

    Scordo, Facundo; Seitz, Carina; Melo, Walter D.; Piccolo, M. Cintia; Perillo, Gerardo M. E.


    This work aims to assess how Pleistocene glaciations modeled the landscape in the upper Senguer River basin and its relationship to current watershed features (drainage surface and fluvial hydrological regime). During the Pleistocene six glacial lobes developed in the upper basin of the Senguer River localized east of the Andean range in southern Argentinean Patagonia between 43° 36' - 46° 27‧ S. To describe the topography and hydrology, map the geomorphology, and propose an evolution of the study area during the Pleistocene we employed multitemporal Landsat images, national geological sheets and a mosaic of the digital elevation model (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) along with fieldwork. The main conclusion is that until the Middle Pleistocene, the drainage divide of the Senguer River basin was located to the west of its current limits and its rivers drained the meltwater of the glaciers during interglacial periods. However, processes of drainage inversion and drainage surface reduction occurred in the headwater of most rivers of the basin during the Late Pleistocene. Those processes were favored by a relative shorter glacial extension during LGM and the dam effect produced by the moraines of the Post GPG I and III glaciations. Thus, since the Late Pleistocene, the headwaters of several rivers in the basin have been reduced, and the moraines corresponding to the Middle Pleistocene glaciations currently divide the watersheds that drain towards the Senguer River from those that flow west towards the Pacific Ocean.

  13. Late Middle Pleistocene hominin teeth from Panxian Dadong, South China. (United States)

    Liu, Wu; Schepartz, Lynne A; Xing, Song; Miller-Antonio, Sari; Wu, Xiujie; Trinkaus, Erik; Martinón-Torres, María


    The hominin teeth and evidence of hominin activities recovered from 1991 to 2005 at the Panxian Dadong site in South China are dated to the late Middle Pleistocene (MIS 8-6 or ca. 130-300 ka), a period for which very little is known about the morphology of Asian populations. The present study provides the first detailed morphometric description and comparisons of four hominin teeth (I(1), C1, P(3) and P3) from this site. Our study shows that the Panxian Dadong teeth combine archaic and derived features that align them with Middle and Upper Pleistocene fossils from East and West Asia and Europe. These teeth do not display any typical Neanderthal features and they are generally more derived than other contemporaneous populations from Asia and Africa. However, the derived traits are not diagnostic enough to specifically link the Panxian Dadong teeth to Homo sapiens, a common problem when analyzing the Middle Pleistocene dental record from Africa and Asia. These findings are contextualized in the discussion of the evolutionary course of Asian Middle Pleistocene hominins, and they highlight the necessity of incorporating the Asian fossil record in the still open debate about the origin of H. sapiens. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Craniosynostosis in the Middle Pleistocene human Cranium 14 from the Sima de los Huesos, Atapuerca, Spain. (United States)

    Gracia, Ana; Arsuaga, Juan Luis; Martínez, Ignacio; Lorenzo, Carlos; Carretero, José Miguel; Bermúdez de Castro, José María; Carbonell, Eudald


    We report here a previously undescribed human Middle Pleistocene immature specimen, Cranium 14, recovered at the Sima de los Huesos (SH) site (Atapuerca, Spain), that constitutes the oldest evidence in human evolution of a very rare pathology in our own species, lambdoid single suture craniosynostosis (SSC). Both the ecto- and endo-cranial deformities observed in this specimen are severe. All of the evidence points out that this severity implies that the SSC occurred before birth, and that facial asymmetries, as well as motor/cognitive disorders, were likely to be associated with this condition. The analysis of the present etiological data of this specimen lead us to consider that Cranium 14 is a case of isolated SSC, probably of traumatic origin. The existence of this pathological individual among the SH sample represents also a fact to take into account when referring to sociobiological behavior in Middle Pleistocene humans.

  15. Aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale processes in opposing ENSO phases (United States)

    Schwierz, C.; Wernli, H.; Hess, D.


    Energy and momentum provided by anomalous tropical heating/cooling affect the circulation on the global scale. Pacific Sea surface temperature anomalies strongly force local conditions in the equatorial Pacific, but are also known to change the climate in the extratropics, particularly over the American continent. The impact on more remote areas such as the Atlantic-European region is less clear. There the observed effects in both analyses and model studies show dependence on the resolution of the model/data, as well as on the time scales under consideration (Merkel and Latif, 2002; Compo et al., 2001). Most of the previous studies focus on larger-scale processes and seasonal time scales (or longer). Here we concentrate on the impact of opposing ENSO phases on extratropical synoptic-scale dynamics. The investigation is undertaken for the Niño/Niña events of 1972/3 and 1973/4 respectively, for 5 winter months (NDJFM) using ECMWF ERA40 data with 1o× 1o horizontal resolution and 60 vertical levels. The examination of the resulting differences in terms of standard dynamical fields (temperature, sea level pressure, precipitation, geopotential) is complemented with additional diagnostic fields (e.g. potential vorticity (PV), anti-/cyclone tracks and frequencies, PV streamers/cut-offs, blocking) in an attempt to gain more insight into aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale dynamical processes associated with ENSO SST anomalies.

  16. Influences of past climatic changes on historical population structure and demography of a cosmopolitan marine predator, the common dolphin (genus Delphinus). (United States)

    Amaral, Ana R; Beheregaray, Luciano B; Bilgmann, Kerstin; Freitas, Luís; Robertson, Kelly M; Sequeira, Marina; Stockin, Karen A; Coelho, M M; Möller, Luciana M


    Climatic oscillations during the Pleistocene have greatly influenced the distribution and connectivity of many organisms, leading to extinctions but also generating biodiversity. While the effects of such changes have been extensively studied in the terrestrial environment, studies focusing on the marine realm are still scarce. Here we used sequence data from one mitochondrial and five nuclear loci to assess the potential influence of Pleistocene climatic changes on the phylogeography and demographic history of a cosmopolitan marine predator, the common dolphin (genus Delphinus). Population samples representing the three major morphotypes of Delphinus were obtained from 10 oceanic regions. Our results suggest that short-beaked common dolphins are likely to have originated in the eastern Indo-Pacific Ocean during the Pleistocene and expanded into the Atlantic Ocean through the Indian Ocean. On the other hand, long-beaked common dolphins appear to have evolved more recently and independently in several oceans. Our results also suggest that short-beaked common dolphins had recurrent demographic expansions concomitant with changes in sea surface temperature during the Pleistocene and its associated increases in resource availability, which differed between the North Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. By proposing how past environmental changes had an effect on the demography and speciation of a widely distributed marine mammal, we highlight the impacts that climate change may have on the distribution and abundance of marine predators and its ecological consequences for marine ecosystems. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.


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    Full Text Available We here present che preliminary results of the analysis of the fossil bird assemblages found in the lignite deposits of the Pietrafitta Mine (Perugia, Central Italy. A rich vertebrate association, mainly mammals, has been retrieved in Pietrafitta, which is the richest local fauna of the Farneta Faunal Unit (late Villafranchian, early Pleistocene. Avian remains of Podicipedidae, Ardeidae, Phalacrocoracidae, Anatidae, Phasianidae and Rallidae have been identified, for most of which Pietrafitta represents the earliest occurrence in Italy. The Pietrafitta fossil bird association is the first Italian bird assemblage of the Early Pleistocene and seems to be one of the most important ones for the early Pleistocene in Europe, especially because it contains mainly aquatic birds, often rare in many other European deposits. 

  18. A study of Solar-Enso correlation with southern Brazil tree ring index (1955- 1991) (United States)

    Rigozo, N.; Nordemann, D.; Vieira, L.; Echer, E.

    The effects of solar activity and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on tree growth in Southern Brazil were studied by correlation analysis. Trees for this study were native Araucaria (Araucaria Angustifolia)from four locations in Rio Grande do Sul State, in Southern Brazil: Canela (29o18`S, 50o51`W, 790 m asl), Nova Petropolis (29o2`S, 51o10`W, 579 m asl), Sao Francisco de Paula (29o25`S, 50o24`W, 930 m asl) and Sao Martinho da Serra (29o30`S, 53o53`W, 484 m asl). From these four sites, an average tree ring Index for this region was derived, for the period 1955-1991. Linear correlations were made on annual and 10 year running averages of this tree ring Index, of sunspot number Rz and SOI. For annual averages, the correlation coefficients were low, and the multiple regression between tree ring and SOI and Rz indicates that 20% of the variance in tree rings was explained by solar activity and ENSO variability. However, when the 10 year running averages correlations were made, the coefficient correlations were much higher. A clear anticorrelation is observed between SOI and Index (r=-0.81) whereas Rz and Index show a positive correlation (r=0.67). The multiple regression of 10 year running averages indicates that 76% of the variance in tree ring INdex was explained by solar activity and ENSO. These results indicate that the effects of solar activity and ENSO on tree rings are better seen on long timescales.

  19. A Pleistocene coastal alluvial fan complex produced by Middle Pleistocene glacio-fluvial processes (United States)

    Adamson, Kathryn; Woodward, Jamie; Hughes, Philip; Giglio, Federico; Del Bianco, Fabrizio


    contains deeply incised (up to 10 m) channels which are similar in morphology to those exposed onshore. It is likely that strong cementation of the fan sediments, and associated channel forms, has protected them from coastal erosion during several regression-transgression cycles. These records provide important opportunities to correlate the Pleistocene terrestrial glacial and fluvial records with the marine archive.

  20. Late Pleistocene fishes of the Tennessee River Basin: an analysis of a late Pleistocene freshwater fish fauna from Bell Cave (site ACb-2) in Colbert County, Alabama, USA. (United States)

    Jacquemin, Stephen J; Ebersole, Jun A; Dickinson, William C; Ciampaglio, Charles N


    The Tennessee River Basin is considered one of the most important regions for freshwater biodiversity anywhere on the globe. The Tennessee River Basin currently includes populations of at least half of the described contemporary diversity of extant North American freshwater fishes, crayfish, mussel, and gastropod species. However, comparatively little is known about the biodiversity of this basin from the Pleistocene Epoch, particularly the late Pleistocene (∼10,000 to 30,000 years B.P.) leading to modern Holocene fish diversity patterns. The objective of this study was to describe the fish assemblages of the Tennessee River Basin from the late Pleistocene using a series of faunas from locales throughout the basin documented from published literature, unpublished reports, and an undocumented fauna from Bell Cave (site ACb-2, Colbert County, AL). Herein we discuss 41 unequivocal taxa from 10 late Pleistocene localities within the basin and include a systematic discussion of 11 families, 19 genera, and 24 identifiable species (28 unequivocal taxa) specific to the Bell Cave locality. Among the described fauna are several extirpated (e.g., Northern Pike Esox lucius, Northern Madtom Noturus stigmosus) and a single extinct (Harelip Sucker Moxostoma lacerum) taxa that suggest a combination of late Pleistocene displacement events coupled with more recent changes in habitat that have resulted in modern basin diversity patterns. The Bell Cave locality represents one of the most intact Pleistocene freshwater fish deposits anywhere in North America. Significant preservational, taphonomic, sampling, and identification biases preclude the identification of additional taxa. Overall, this study provides a detailed look into paleo-river ecology, as well as freshwater fish diversity and distribution leading up to the contemporary biodiversity patterns of the Tennessee River Basin and Mississippi River Basin as a whole.

  1. Late Pleistocene fishes of the Tennessee River Basin: an analysis of a late Pleistocene freshwater fish fauna from Bell Cave (site ACb-2 in Colbert County, Alabama, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen J. Jacquemin


    Full Text Available The Tennessee River Basin is considered one of the most important regions for freshwater biodiversity anywhere on the globe. The Tennessee River Basin currently includes populations of at least half of the described contemporary diversity of extant North American freshwater fishes, crayfish, mussel, and gastropod species. However, comparatively little is known about the biodiversity of this basin from the Pleistocene Epoch, particularly the late Pleistocene (∼10,000 to 30,000 years B.P. leading to modern Holocene fish diversity patterns. The objective of this study was to describe the fish assemblages of the Tennessee River Basin from the late Pleistocene using a series of faunas from locales throughout the basin documented from published literature, unpublished reports, and an undocumented fauna from Bell Cave (site ACb-2, Colbert County, AL. Herein we discuss 41 unequivocal taxa from 10 late Pleistocene localities within the basin and include a systematic discussion of 11 families, 19 genera, and 24 identifiable species (28 unequivocal taxa specific to the Bell Cave locality. Among the described fauna are several extirpated (e.g., Northern Pike Esox lucius, Northern Madtom Noturus stigmosus and a single extinct (Harelip Sucker Moxostoma lacerum taxa that suggest a combination of late Pleistocene displacement events coupled with more recent changes in habitat that have resulted in modern basin diversity patterns. The Bell Cave locality represents one of the most intact Pleistocene freshwater fish deposits anywhere in North America. Significant preservational, taphonomic, sampling, and identification biases preclude the identification of additional taxa. Overall, this study provides a detailed look into paleo-river ecology, as well as freshwater fish diversity and distribution leading up to the contemporary biodiversity patterns of the Tennessee River Basin and Mississippi River Basin as a whole.

  2. Non-stationary influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and winter temperature on oak latewood growth in NW Iberian Peninsula. (United States)

    Rozas, Vicente; García-González, Ignacio


    The properties of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as period, amplitude, and teleconnection strength to extratropical regions, have changed since the mid-1970s. ENSO affects the regional climatic regime in SW Europe, thus tree performance in the Iberian Peninsula could be affected by recent ENSO dynamics. We established four Quercus robur chronologies of earlywood and latewood widths in the NW Iberian Peninsula. The relationship between tree growth and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the atmospheric expression of ENSO, showed that only latewood growth was correlated negatively with the SOI of the previous summer-autumn-winter. This relationship was non-stationary, with significant correlations only during the period 1952-1980; and also non-linear, with enhanced latewood growth only in La Niña years, i.e. years with a negative SOI index for the previous autumn. Non-linear relationship between latewood and SOI indicates an asymmetric influence of ENSO on tree performance, biassed towards negative SOI phases. During La Niña years, climate in the study area was warmer and wetter than during positive years, but only for 1952-1980. Winter temperatures became the most limiting factor for latewood growth since 1980, when mean regional temperatures increased by 1°C in comparison to previous periods. As a result, higher winter respiration rates, and the extension of the growing season, would probably cause an additional consumption of stored carbohydrates. The influence of ENSO and winter temperatures proved to be of great importance for tree growth, even at lower altitudes and under mild Atlantic climate in the NW Iberian Peninsula.

  3. Sediment storage and transport in Pancho Rico Valley during and after the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, Coast Ranges of central California (Monterey County) (United States)

    Garcia, A.F.; Mahan, S.A.


    Factors influencing sediment transport and storage within the 156??6 km2 drainage basin of Pancho Rico Creek (PRC), and sediment transport from the PRC drainage basin to its c. 11000 km2 mainstem drainage (Salinas River) are investigated. Numeric age estimates are determined by optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating on quartz grains from three sediment samples collected from a 'quaternary terrace a (Qta)' PRC terrace/PRC-tributary fan sequence, which consists dominantly of debris flow deposits overlying fluvial sediments. OSL dating results, morphometric analyses of topography, and field results indicate that the stormy climate of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition caused intense debris-flow erosion of PRC- tributary valleys. However, during that time, the PRC channel was backfilled by Qta sediment, which indicates that there was insufficient discharge in PRC to transport the sediment load produced by tributary-valley denudation. Locally, Salinas Valley alluvial stratigraphy lacks any record of hillslope erosion occurring during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, in that the alluvial fan formed where PRC enters the Salinas Valley lacks lobes correlative to Qta. This indicates that sediment stripped from PRC tributaries was mostly trapped in Pancho Rico Valley despite the relatively moist climate of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. Incision into Qta did not occur until PRC enlarged its drainage basin by c. 50% through capture of the upper part of San Lorenzo Creek, which occurred some time after the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. During the relatively dry Holocene, PRC incision through Qta and into bedrock, as well as delivery of sediment to the San Ardo Fan, were facilitated by the discharge increase associated with stream-capture. The influence of multiple mechanisms on sediment storage and transport in the Pancho Rico Valley-Salinas Valley system exemplifies the complexity that (in some instances) must be recognized in order to correctly

  4. Paleoclimatic modeling and phylogeography of least killifish, Heterandria formosa: insights into Pleistocene expansion-contraction dynamics and evolutionary history of North American Coastal Plain freshwater biota. (United States)

    Bagley, Justin C; Sandel, Michael; Travis, Joseph; Lozano-Vilano, María de Lourdes; Johnson, Jerald B


    Climatic and sea-level fluctuations throughout the last Pleistocene glacial cycle (~130-0 ka) profoundly influenced present-day distributions and genetic diversity of Northern Hemisphere biotas by forcing range contractions in many species during the glacial advance and allowing expansion following glacial retreat ('expansion-contraction' model). Evidence for such range dynamics and refugia in the unglaciated Gulf-Atlantic Coastal Plain stems largely from terrestrial species, and aquatic species Pleistocene responses remain relatively uninvestigated. Heterandria formosa, a wide-ranging regional endemic, presents an ideal system to test the expansion-contraction model within this biota. By integrating ecological niche modeling and phylogeography, we infer the Pleistocene history of this livebearing fish (Poeciliidae) and test for several predicted distributional and genetic effects of the last glaciation. Paleoclimatic models predicted range contraction to a single southwest Florida peninsula refugium during the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by northward expansion. We inferred spatial-population subdivision into four groups that reflect genetic barriers outside this refuge. Several other features of the genetic data were consistent with predictions derived from an expansion-contraction model: limited intraspecific divergence (e.g. mean mtDNA p-distance = 0.66%); a pattern of mtDNA diversity (mean Hd = 0.934; mean π = 0.007) consistent with rapid, recent population expansion; a lack of mtDNA isolation-by-distance; and clinal variation in allozyme diversity with higher diversity at lower latitudes near the predicted refugium. Statistical tests of mismatch distributions and coalescent simulations of the gene tree lent greater support to a scenario of post-glacial expansion and diversification from a single refugium than to any other model examined (e.g. multiple-refugia scenarios). Congruent results from diverse data indicate H. formosa fits the classic Pleistocene

  5. Hominin teeth from the Middle Pleistocene site of Yiyuan, Eastern China. (United States)

    Xing, Song; Sun, Chengkai; Martinón-Torres, María; Bermúdez de Castro, José María; Han, Fei; Zhang, Yingqi; Liu, Wu


    In 1981-1982, some hominin fossils, including a relatively complete skull and seven isolated teeth, were recovered from the Middle Pleistocene site of Yiyuan in Eastern China. In the present study we provide a detailed metric and morphological comparison of the Yiyuan dental sample in order to characterize better the variability of the human populations that inhabited China during the Middle Pleistocene. Aside from taxonomic and phylogenetic questions, the lack of understanding and/or knowledge about the morphological variability of these populations have caused concern about the human versus non-human nature of some of the hominin dental remains found in East Asia during the Early and the Middle Pleistocene. Thus, our study aims to present a detailed description and comparison of the Yiyuan isolated teeth to 1) discuss and support their human nature and 2) to explore their taxonomic affinities with regard to other penecontemporaneous populations from Asia. Our results clearly differentiate the Yiyuan sample from Pongo specimens and support a human attribution for the Yiyuan material. Our analyses also suggest that the Yiyuan teeth form a morphologically coherent group together with samples from Zhoukoudian, Chaoxian and Hexian. They are different from the more derived specimens from Panxian Dadong, suggesting a pattern of biogeographic isolation and different evolutionary trends between northern and southern China during the Middle Pleistocene. In addition, and despite sharing a common morphological bauplan with Homo erectus sensu stricto (s.s.), the Yiyuan, Zhoukoudian and Hexian teeth are also different from the Indonesian Early Pleistocene samples. In particular, the expression of a highly crenulated or dendritic enamel-dentine surface could be unique to these groups. Our study supports the notion that the taxonomy of the Pleistocene hominins from Asia may have been oversimplified. Future studies should explore the variability of the Asian specimens and

  6. Two ENSO episodes with reversed impacts on the regional precipitation of the northeastern South America Dos eventos ENSO con impactos opuestos sobre la precipitación regional en el noreste de Sudamérica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Everaldo B. de Souza


    Full Text Available Diagnostic analyses of two ENSO episodes observed during 1954-55 (La Niña and 1972-73 (El Niño over tropical Pacific Ocean are reported. These years were marked by reversed impact on the regional precipitation observed over the northeastern South America. The observational results showed that, in the Pacific Ocean, the La Niña stayed well configured during both summer and autumn of 1954-55, however the El Niño presented its mature phase during summer of 1972-73 and an abrupt decline during autumn of 1973. On the other hand, the large-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns related to the intertropical Atlantic SST gradient, created dynamic conditions that modulated the positioning of ITCZ in the equatorial Atlantic and regulated significantly the rainfall anomalies observed in the northeastern South America, overcoming the effect of the ENSO mode observed in the tropical Pacific.En el presente trabajo se realiza un estudio de diagnóstico de los eventos ENSO ocurridos en 1954-55 (La Niña y 1972-73 (El Niño. Durante 1954-55 (1972-73, se observaron anomalías de temperaturas de la superficie del mar (TSM positivas (negativas en el Atlántico Norte y negativas (positivas en el Atlántico Sur, lo que define la fase positiva (negativa del dipolo Atlántico. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que pese a la ocurrencia del evento La Niña (El Niño en el Pacífico, la configuración del dipolo positivo (negativo en el Atlántico creó las condiciones favorables para mantener la ITCZ al norte (sur del Ecuador. En consecuencia, se encontró un déficit (exceso de precipitación en el nor-noreste brasileño durante DEF y MAM de 1954-55 (1972-73. Por lo tanto, durante estos años la configuración anómala de TSM en el Atlántico moduló las anomalías de lluvia observadas en el Amazonas y noreste de Brasil, superando el efecto del ENSO.

  7. ENSO variability reflected in precipitation oxygen isotopes across the Asian Summer Monsoon region (United States)

    Cai, Zhongyin; Tian, Lide; Bowen, Gabriel J.


    Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

  8. Teleconnections in Groundwater of U.S. Principal Aquifers to the Non-Stationarity of ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO (United States)

    Gurdak, J. J.; Kuss, A. M.


    is partially controlled by ENSO-, NAO-, and PDO-like modes of variability and estimated climate varying recharge rates are generally within the range of previously reported recharge rates. Findings and methods presented here expand the knowledge and usable toolbox of innovative approaches that can be used by water managers and scientists to improve water resource planning and operations under future climate uncertainty and assumption of non-stationarity.

  9. How will the impact of El Nino and La Nina on Australia change under global warming?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Power, Scott; Morgan, Adam; Moise, Aurel; Grainger, Simon; Smith, Ian; Reeder, Michael


    Full text: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a profound influence on Australia. How will this influence change under global warming? Will El Nino droughts become more frequent or more intense? Will La Nina events tend to produce more or less rainfall over Australia than they have in the past? Has ENSO already changed? Has ENSO's impact on Australia already changed? Will global warming be 'El Nino-like'? How well do current models simulate ENSO and how reliable are their projections for ENSO? Here we will provide answers to these questions drawing on the IPCC (2007) report and recent research conducted here in Australia. We will see that: ENSO and its impact on Australia varied substantially on decadal and longer time-scales over the past century; The frequency of El Nino events appeared to increase; The Walker Circulation, which is one of the most prominent and important atmospheric circulations in the world, is centred in the Pacific Ocean and is strongly modulated by ENSO. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - which is used to track ENSO and the strength of the Walker Circulation -has trended down over the past century. The tropical Pacific - the engine room for ENSO - has warmed to unprecedented levels. The Walker Circulation weakens in some models in response to global warming. The relationship between Australian rainfall, temperature and the SOI has changed. The IPCC WG1 Report (2007) concluded that'... there is no consistent indication at this time of discernable changes in ENSO amplitude or frequency in the 21st century'. Even if ENSO variability in the tropical Pacific does not change, ENSO's impact on Australia might. Evidence supporting this hypothesis will be provided. Finally, we will discuss what this all means for Australia

  10. Predictability of a Coupled Model of ENSO Using Singular Vector Analysis: Optimal Growth and Forecast Skill. (United States)

    Xue, Yan

    The optimal growth and its relationship with the forecast skill of the Zebiak and Cane model are studied using a simple statistical model best fit to the original nonlinear model and local linear tangent models about idealized climatic states (the mean background and ENSO cycles in a long model run), and the actual forecast states, including two sets of runs using two different initialization procedures. The seasonally varying Markov model best fit to a suite of 3-year forecasts in a reduced EOF space (18 EOFs) fits the original nonlinear model reasonably well and has comparable or better forecast skill. The initial error growth in a linear evolution operator A is governed by the eigenvalues of A^{T}A, and the square roots of eigenvalues and eigenvectors of A^{T}A are named singular values and singular vectors. One dominant growing singular vector is found, and the optimal 6 month growth rate is largest for a (boreal) spring start and smallest for a fall start. Most of the variation in the optimal growth rate of the two forecasts is seasonal, attributable to the seasonal variations in the mean background, except that in the cold events it is substantially suppressed. It is found that the mean background (zero anomaly) is the most unstable state, and the "forecast IC states" are more unstable than the "coupled model states". One dominant growing singular vector is found, characterized by north-south and east -west dipoles, convergent winds on the equator in the eastern Pacific and a deepened thermocline in the whole equatorial belt. This singular vector is insensitive to initial time and optimization time, but its final pattern is a strong function of initial states. The ENSO system is inherently unpredictable for the dominant singular vector can amplify 5-fold to 24-fold in 6 months and evolve into the large scales characteristic of ENSO. However, the inherent ENSO predictability is only a secondary factor, while the mismatches between the model and data is a

  11. Relationship between geohydrology and Upper Pleistocene-Holocene evolution of the eastern region of the Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina (United States)

    Capítulo, Leandro Rodrigues; Kruse, Eduardo E.


    The Upper Pleistocene-Holocene geological evolution, which is characterized by its landscape-forming energy and is related to geological and geomorphological complexity, has an impact on the groundwater dynamics of coastal aquifers. The geological configuration of a sector of the east coast of the Province of Buenos Aires was analyzed, as well as its connection with the geological and geomorphological history of the region during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, and its influence on the regional and local geohydrological behaviour. This analysis was based on the application of the concept of hydrofacies. Boreholes were drilled and sampled (with depths of up to 40 m), and vertical electrical sounding, electrical tomography and pumping tests were undertaken. The description of the cutting samples by means of a stereo microscope, the interpretation of satellite images, and the construction of lithological and hydrogeological profiles and flow charts were carried out in the laboratory, and then integrated in a GIS. The identification of the lithological units and their distribution in the area allowed the construction of an evolutionary geological model for the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. Three aquifer units can be recognized: one of Late Pleistocene age (hydrofacies E) and the other two of Holocene age (hydrofacies A and C); their hydraulic connection depends on the occurrence and thickness variation of the aquitard units (hydrofacies B and D). The approach adopted allows the examination of the possibilities for groundwater exploitation and constitutes an applied conceptual framework to be taken into consideration when developing conceptual and numerical models at the local and regional scales.

  12. A synthesis of Plio-Pleistocene leaf wax biomarker records of hydrological variation in East Africa and their relationship with hominin evolution (United States)

    Lupien, R.; Russell, J. M.; Campisano, C. J.; Feibel, C. S.; Deino, A. L.; Kingston, J.; Potts, R.; Cohen, A. S.


    Climate change is thought to play a critical role in human evolution. However, the mechanisms behind this relationship are difficult to test due to a lack of long, high-quality paleoclimate records from hominin fossil locales. We improve the understanding of this relationship by examining Plio-Pleistocene lake sediment cores from East Africa that were drilled by the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project, an international effort to study the environment in which our hominin ancestors evolved and dispersed. We have analyzed organic geochemical signals of climate from drill cores from Ethiopia and Kenya spanning the Pliocene to recent time (from north to south: paleolake Hadar, Lake Turkana, Lake Baringo, and paleolake Koora). Specifically, we analyzed the hydrogen isotopic composition of terrestrial leaf waxes, which records changes in regional atmospheric circulation and hydrology. We reconstructed quantitative records of rainfall amount at each of the study sites, which host sediment spanning different geologic times and regions. By compiling these records, we test hominin evolutionary hypotheses as well as crucial questions about climate trend and variability. We find that there is a gradual or step-wise enrichment in δDwax, signifying a trend from a wet to dry climate, from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene, perhaps implying an influence of global temperature, ice sheet extent, and/or atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations on East African climate. However, the shift is small relative to the amplitude of orbital-scale isotopic variations. The records indicate a strong influence of eccentricity-modulated orbital precession, and imply that local insolation effects are the likely cause of East African precipitation. Several of the intervals of high isotopic variability coincide with key hominin fossil or technological transitions, suggesting that climate variability plays a key role in hominin evolution.

  13. Biogeochemical Cycling and Sea Ice Dynamics in the Bering Sea across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (United States)

    Detlef, H.; Sosdian, S. M.; Belt, S. T.; Smik, L.; Lear, C. H.; Hall, I. R.; Kender, S.; Leng, M. J.; Husum, K.; Cabedo-Sanz, P.


    Today the Bering Sea is characterized by high primary productivity (PP) along the eastern shelf, maintained by CO2 and nutrient rich upwelled deep waters and nutrient release during spring sea ice melting. As such, low oxygen concentrations are pervasive in mid-depth waters. Changes in ventilation and export productivity in the past have been shown to impact this oxygen minimum zone. On glacial/interglacial (G/IG) timescales sea ice formation plays a pivotal role on intermediate water ventilation with evidence pointing to the formation of North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) in the Bering Sea during Pleistocene glacial intervals. In addition, sea ice plays a significant role in both long- and short-term climate change via associated feedback mechanisms. Thus, records of sea ice dynamics and biogeochemical cycling in the Bering Sea are necessary to fully understand the interaction between PP, circulation patterns, and past G/IG climates with potential implications for the North Pacific carbon cycle. Here we use a multi-proxy approach to study sea ice dynamics and bottom water oxygenation, across three intervals prior to, across, and after the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT, 1.2-0.7 Ma) from International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1343. The MPT, most likely driven by internal climate mechanisms, is ideal to study changes in sea ice dynamics and sedimentary redox conditions on orbital timescales and to investigate the implications for associated feedback mechanisms. The sea ice record, based on various biomarkers, including IP25, shows substantial increase in sea ice extent across the MPT and the occurrence of a late-glacial/deglacial sea ice spike, with consequences for glacial NPIW formation and land glacier retreat via the temperature-precipitation feedback. U/Mn of foraminiferal authigenic coatings, a novel proxy for bottom water oxygenation, also shows distinct variability on G/IG timescales across the MPT, most likely a result of PP and water mass

  14. An Ocean Biology-induced Negative Feedback on ENSO in the Tropical Pacific Climate System (United States)

    Zhang, R. H.


    Biological conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean (e.g., phytoplankton biomass) are strongly regulated by physical changes associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The existence and variation of phytoplankton biomass, in turn, act to modulate the vertical penetration of the incoming sunlight in the upper ocean, presenting an ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) effect on the climate system. Previously, a penetration depth of solar radiation in the upper ocean (Hp) is defined to describe the related bio-climate connections. Parameterized in terms of its relationship with the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific, an empirical model for interannual Hp variability has been derived from remotely sensed ocean color data, which is incorporated into a hybrid coupled model (HCM) to represent OBH effects. In this paper, various HCM experiments are performed to demonstrate the bio-feedback onto ENSO, including a climatological Hp run (in which Hp is prescribed as seasonally varying only), interannual Hp runs (with different intensities of interannually varying OBH effects), and a run in which the sign of the OBH effect is artificially reversed. Significant modulating impacts on interannual variability are found in the HCM, characterized by a negative feedback between ocean biology and the climate system in the tropical Pacific: the stronger the OBH feedback, the weaker the interannual variability. Processes involved in the feedback are analyzed; it is illustrated that the SST is modulated indirectly by ocean dynamical processes induced by OBH. The significance and implication of the OBH effects are discussed for their roles in ENSO variability and model biases in the tropical Pacific.

  15. Plio-Pleistocene climate sensitivity evaluated using high-resolution CO2 records. (United States)

    Martínez-Botí, M A; Foster, G L; Chalk, T B; Rohling, E J; Sexton, P F; Lunt, D J; Pancost, R D; Badger, M P S; Schmidt, D N


    Theory and climate modelling suggest that the sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in radiative forcing could depend on the background climate. However, palaeoclimate data have thus far been insufficient to provide a conclusive test of this prediction. Here we present atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) reconstructions based on multi-site boron-isotope records from the late Pliocene epoch (3.3 to 2.3 million years ago). We find that Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2-based radiative forcing (Earth system sensitivity) was half as strong during the warm Pliocene as during the cold late Pleistocene epoch (0.8 to 0.01 million years ago). We attribute this difference to the radiative impacts of continental ice-volume changes (the ice-albedo feedback) during the late Pleistocene, because equilibrium climate sensitivity is identical for the two intervals when we account for such impacts using sea-level reconstructions. We conclude that, on a global scale, no unexpected climate feedbacks operated during the warm Pliocene, and that predictions of equilibrium climate sensitivity (excluding long-term ice-albedo feedbacks) for our Pliocene-like future (with CO2 levels up to maximum Pliocene levels of 450 parts per million) are well described by the currently accepted range of an increase of 1.5 K to 4.5 K per doubling of CO2.

  16. Plio-Pleistocene climate sensitivity evaluated using high-resolution CO2 records (United States)

    Martínez-Botí, M. A.; Foster, G. L.; Chalk, T. B.; Rohling, E. J.; Sexton, P. F.; Lunt, D. J.; Pancost, R. D.; Badger, M. P. S.; Schmidt, D. N.


    Theory and climate modelling suggest that the sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in radiative forcing could depend on the background climate. However, palaeoclimate data have thus far been insufficient to provide a conclusive test of this prediction. Here we present atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) reconstructions based on multi-site boron-isotope records from the late Pliocene epoch (3.3 to 2.3 million years ago). We find that Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2-based radiative forcing (Earth system sensitivity) was half as strong during the warm Pliocene as during the cold late Pleistocene epoch (0.8 to 0.01 million years ago). We attribute this difference to the radiative impacts of continental ice-volume changes (the ice-albedo feedback) during the late Pleistocene, because equilibrium climate sensitivity is identical for the two intervals when we account for such impacts using sea-level reconstructions. We conclude that, on a global scale, no unexpected climate feedbacks operated during the warm Pliocene, and that predictions of equilibrium climate sensitivity (excluding long-term ice-albedo feedbacks) for our Pliocene-like future (with CO2 levels up to maximum Pliocene levels of 450 parts per million) are well described by the currently accepted range of an increase of 1.5 K to 4.5 K per doubling of CO2.

  17. Snapshots of the Greenland ice sheet configuration in the Pliocene to early Pleistocene

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solgaard, Anne M.; Reeh, Niels; Japsen, Peter


    The geometry of the ice sheets during the Pliocene to early Pleistocene is not well constrained. Here we apply an ice-flow model in the study of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) during three extreme intervals of this period constrained by geological observations and climate reconstructions. We study...... the extent of the GIS during the Mid-Pliocene Warmth (3.3-3.0 Ma), its advance across the continental shelf during the late Pliocene to early Pleistocene glaciations (3.0-2.4 Ma) as implied by offshore geological studies, and the transition from glacial to interglacial conditions around 2.4 Ma as deduced...... the variability of the GIS during the Pliocene to early Pleistocene and underline the importance of including independent estimates of the GIS in studies of climate during this period. We conclude that the GIS did not exist throughout the Pliocene to early Pleistocene, and that it melted during interglacials even...

  18. Patterns of myoxid evolution in the Pliocene and Pleistocene of Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Nadachoswki


    Full Text Available Abstract The origin of recent species belonging to the genera Myoxus, Muscardinus, Glirulus, Eliomys, Dryomys and Myomimus is discussed. Evolution of myoxids in the Pliocene and Pleistocene is expressed by gradual size increase of their cheek teeth. No gradual change in the dental pattern is observed. Riassunto Modelli di evoluzione dei Mioxidi nel Pliocene e Pleistocene in Europa - Viene discussa l'origine delle specie recenti appartenenti ai generi Myoxus, Muscardinus, Glirulus, Eliomys, Dryomys e Myomimus. L'evoluzione dei Mioxidi nel Pliocene e nel Pleistocene è espressa da un graduale aumento delle dimensioni dei molari. Non è stato osservato alcun cambiamento graduale nel pattern dentale.

  19. Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ward, P.J.; Jongman, B.; Kummu, M.S.; Dettinger, M.D.; Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Winsemius, H.C.


    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts,

  20. Synchronous genetic turnovers across Western Eurasia in Late Pleistocene collared lemmings. (United States)

    Palkopoulou, Eleftheria; Baca, Mateusz; Abramson, Natalia I; Sablin, Mikhail; Socha, Paweł; Nadachowski, Adam; Prost, Stefan; Germonpré, Mietje; Kosintsev, Pavel; Smirnov, Nickolay G; Vartanyan, Sergey; Ponomarev, Dmitry; Nyström, Johanna; Nikolskiy, Pavel; Jass, Christopher N; Litvinov, Yuriy N; Kalthoff, Daniela C; Grigoriev, Semyon; Fadeeva, Tatyana; Douka, Aikaterini; Higham, Thomas F G; Ersmark, Erik; Pitulko, Vladimir; Pavlova, Elena; Stewart, John R; Węgleński, Piotr; Stankovic, Anna; Dalén, Love


    Recent palaeogenetic studies indicate a highly dynamic history in collared lemmings (Dicrostonyx spp.), with several demographical changes linked to climatic fluctuations that took place during the last glaciation. At the western range margin of D. torquatus, these changes were characterized by a series of local extinctions and recolonizations. However, it is unclear whether this pattern represents a local phenomenon, possibly driven by ecological edge effects, or a global phenomenon that took place across large geographical scales. To address this, we explored the palaeogenetic history of the collared lemming using a next-generation sequencing approach for pooled mitochondrial DNA amplicons. Sequences were obtained from over 300 fossil remains sampled across Eurasia and two sites in North America. We identified five mitochondrial lineages of D. torquatus that succeeded each other through time across Europe and western Russia, indicating a history of repeated population extinctions and recolonizations, most likely from eastern Russia, during the last 50 000 years. The observation of repeated extinctions across such a vast geographical range indicates large-scale changes in the steppe-tundra environment in western Eurasia during the last glaciation. All Holocene samples, from across the species' entire range, belonged to only one of the five mitochondrial lineages. Thus, extant D. torquatus populations only harbour a small fraction of the total genetic diversity that existed across different stages of the Late Pleistocene. In North American samples, haplotypes belonging to both D. groenlandicus and D. richardsoni were recovered from a Late Pleistocene site in south-western Canada. This suggests that D. groenlandicus had a more southern and D. richardsoni a more northern glacial distribution than previously thought. This study provides significant insights into the population dynamics of a small mammal at a large geographical scale and reveals a rather complex

  1. The influence of Seychelles Dome on the large scale Tropical Variability (United States)

    Manola, Iris; Selten, Frank; Hazeleger, Wilco


    The Seychelles Dome (SD) is the thermocline ridge just South of the equator in the Western Indian Ocean basin. It is characterized by strong atmospheric convection and a shallow thermocline and is associated with large intraseasonal convection and SST variability (Harrison and Vecchi 2001). The SD is influenced by surface and subsurface processes, such as air-sea fluxes, Ekman upwelling from wind stress curl, ocean dynamics (vertical mixing) and oceanic Rossby waves from southeastern Indian Ocean. The favoring season for a strong SD is the boreal winter, where the thermocline is most shallow. Then the southeasterly trade winds converge with the northwesterly monsoonal winds over the intertropical convergence zone and cause cyclonic wind stress curl that drives Ekman divergence and a ridging of the thermocline. It is found that the subseasonal and interranual variability of the SD is influenced by large scale events, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) (Tozuka et al., 2010, Lloyd and Vecchi, 2010). The SD is enhanced by cooling events in the Western Indian Ocean and easterly winds that raise the thermocline and increase the upwelling. This can be associated with a strong Walker circulation, like negative IOD conditions or La Nina-like conditions. So far the studies focus on the origins of the SD variability, but the influence of the SD itself on regional or large scale climate is largely unknown. In this study we focus on the influence of the SD variations on the large scale tropical circulation. We analyze the covariance of the SD variations and the tropical circulation in a 200 year control imulation of the climate model EC-EARTH and perform idealized SST forced simulations to study the character of the atmospheric response and its relation to ENSO, IOD and MJO. References -Harrison, D. E. and G. A. Vecchi, 2001: January 1999 Indian Ocean cooling event. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 3717-3720. -Lloyd, I. D., and G. A

  2. How well do climate models simulate atmospheric teleconnctions over the North Pacific and East Asia associated with ENSO? (United States)

    Kim, Sunyong; Son, Hye-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong


    During the El Niño and La Niña mature phase, atmospheric teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia vary considerably on sub-seasonal time scales, and are strongly phase-locked to the sub-seasonal evolution. In this study, we investigate how well climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulate the sub-seasonal evolution of teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the observations, there is a prominent anticyclone anomaly over the Kuroshio extension region (i.e. Kuroshio anticyclone), which significantly affects East Asian climate in the early winter (November-December) of El Niño years. However, in January, the Kuroshio anticyclone suddenly disappears, and a cyclonic flow dominates over the North Pacific. It is found here that the CMIP5 models simulate the overall extratropical teleconnection patterns, but they fail to reproduce some of these sub-seasonally-varying features in atmospheric circulation. For example, the models tend to simulate a weaker Kuroshio anticyclone in the early winter during El Niño phases, and fail to capture the abrupt decay of the Kuroshio anticyclone in the late winter. We demonstrate here that these systematic errors in ENSO teleconnection can be explained by systematic errors in tropical precipitation associated with ENSO. That is, negative precipitation anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) are too weak in the models compared to that in the observations, and their amplitude tends to be strengthened from December to the following January, while they are weakened in the observations. In addition, analyses on the inter-model diversity strongly support that relative magnitudes of WNP and central Pacific precipitation anomalies are critical for determining sub-seasonal evolution of ENSO teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia.

  3. Atmospheric QBO and ENSO indices with high vertical resolution from GNSS radio occultation temperature measurements (United States)

    Wilhelmsen, Hallgeir; Ladstädter, Florian; Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara; Steiner, Andrea K.


    We provide atmospheric temperature variability indices for the tropical troposphere and stratosphere based on global navigation satellite system (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) temperature measurements. By exploiting the high vertical resolution and the uniform distribution of the GNSS RO temperature soundings we introduce two approaches, both based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The first method utilizes the whole vertical and horizontal RO temperature field from 30° S to 30° N and from 2 to 35 km altitude. The resulting indices, the leading principal components, resemble the well-known patterns of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropics. They provide some information on the vertical structure; however, they are not vertically resolved. The second method applies the EOF analysis on each altitude level separately and the resulting indices contain information on the horizontal variability at each densely available altitude level. They capture more variability than the indices from the first method and present a mixture of all variability modes contributing at the respective altitude level, including the QBO and ENSO. Compared to commonly used variability indices from QBO winds or ENSO sea surface temperature, these new indices cover the vertical details of the atmospheric variability. Using them as proxies for temperature variability is also of advantage because there is no further need to account for response time lags. Atmospheric variability indices as novel products from RO are expected to be of great benefit for studies on atmospheric dynamics and variability, for climate trend analysis, as well as for climate model evaluation.


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    Full Text Available Here we described the remains of Canis lupus from the bed 8 of Avetrana karst filling (Late Pleistocene; Taranto, Southern Italy. The studied specimens are larger than those collected from the early Late Pleistocene Apulian localities and those referred to the recent Italian wolf. Moreover, the remains from Avetrana are morphometrically close to Canis lupus maximus from France and to C. lupus collected from Central and Northern Italian localities, chronologically related to MIS 2 and MIS 3. Morphologically, the studied specimens slightly differ from both C. l. maximus and other Pleistocene Apulian wolves. The dimensional differences between the Avetrana wolves and those collected from the other early Late Pleistocene Apulian localities could be explained through a spread of a large-sized morphotype from the Northern Italy.

  5. MicroEcos: Micro-Scale Explorations of Large-Scale Late Pleistocene Ecosystems (United States)

    Gellis, B. S.


    Pollen data can inform the reconstruction of early-floral environments by providing data for artistic representations of what early-terrestrial ecosystems looked like, and how existing terrestrial landscapes have evolved. For example, what did the Bighorn Basin look like when large ice sheets covered modern Canada, the Yellowstone Plateau had an ice cap, and the Bighorn Mountains were mantled with alpine glaciers? MicroEcos is an immersive, multimedia project that aims to strengthen human-nature connections through the understanding and appreciation of biological ecosystems. Collected pollen data elucidates flora that are visible in the fossil record - associated with the Late-Pleistocene - and have been illustrated and described in botanical literature. It aims to make scientific data accessible and interesting to all audiences through a series of interactive-digital sculptures, large-scale photography and field-based videography. While this project is driven by scientific data, it is rooted in deeply artistic and outreach-based practices, which include broad artistic practices, e.g.: digital design, illustration, photography, video and sound design. Using 3D modeling and printing technology MicroEcos centers around a series of 3D-printed models of the Last Canyon rock shelter on the Wyoming and Montana border, Little Windy Hill pond site in Wyoming's Medicine Bow National Forest, and Natural Trap Cave site in Wyoming's Big Horn Basin. These digital, interactive-3D sculpture provide audiences with glimpses of three-dimensional Late-Pleistocene environments, and helps create dialogue of how grass, sagebrush, and spruce based ecosystems form. To help audiences better contextualize how MicroEcos bridges notions of time, space, and place, modern photography and videography of the Last Canyon, Little Windy Hill and Natural Trap Cave sites surround these 3D-digital reconstructions.

  6. Variability modes of precipitation along a Central Mediterranean area and their relations with ENSO, NAO, and other climatic patterns (United States)

    Kalimeris, Anastasios; Ranieri, Ezio; Founda, Dimitra; Norrant, Caroline


    This study analyses a century-long set of precipitation time series in the Central Mediterranean (encompassing the Greek Ionian and the Italian Puglia regions) and investigates the statistically significant modes of the interannual precipitation variability using efficient methods of spectral decomposition. The statistical relations and the possible physical couplings between the detected modes and the global or hemispheric patterns of climatic variability (the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO, the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO, the East Atlantic or EA, the Scandinavian or SCAND, and others) were examined in the time-frequency domain and low-order synchronization events were sought. Significant modes of precipitation variability were detected in the Taranto Gulf and the southern part of the Greek Ionian region at the sub-decadal scales (mostly driven by the SCAND pattern) and particularly at the decadal and quasi-decadal scales, where strong relations found with the ENSO activity (under complex implications of EA and NAO) prior to the 1930s or after the early-1970s. The precipitation variations in the Adriatic stations of Puglia are dominated by significant bi-decadal modes which found to be coherent with the ENSO activity and also weakly related with the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature intrinsic variability. Additionally, important discontinuities characterize the evolution of precipitation in certain stations of the Taranto Gulf and the Greek Ionian region during the early-1960s and particularly during the early-1970s, followed by significant reductions in the mean annual precipitation. These discontinuities seem to be associated with regional effects of NAO and SCAND, probably combined with the impact of the 1970s climatic shift in the Pacific and the ENSO variability.

  7. The impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget in an Indonesian oil palm plantation (United States)

    Stiegler, Christian; Meijide, Ana; June, Tania; Knohl, Alexander


    The 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event was one of the strongest observed in the last 20 years. Oil palm plantations cover a large fraction of tropical lowlands in Southeast Asia but despite their growing areal extent, measurements and observations of greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy balance are still scarce. In addition, the effects of extreme events such as ENSO on carbon sequestration and the partitioning of surface energy balance components are widely unknown. In this study, we use micrometeorological measurements located in commercial oil palm plantations in the Jambi province (Sumatra, Indonesia) to assess the impact of the 2015-2016 ENSO event and severe forest fires on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget. Continuous measurements are in operation since July 2013 and we assess turbulent fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapour and sensible heat using the eddy covariance technique before, during and after the 2015-2016 ENSO event. In the beginning of the ENSO event, the area experienced a strong drought with decreasing soil moisture, increasing air and surface temperatures, and strong atmospheric vapour pressure deficit. During the peak of the drought from August to October 2015, hundreds of forest fires in the area resulted in strong smoke production, decreasing incoming solar radiation by 35% compared to pre-ENSO values and diffuse radiation became almost the sole shortwave radiation flux. During the beginning of the drought, carbon uptake of the oil palm plantation was around 2.1 gC m-2 d-1 and initially increased by 50% due to clear-sky conditions and high incoming photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) but increasing density of smoke turned the oil palm plantation into a source of carbon. The turbulent heat fluxes experienced an increase in sensible heat fluxes due to drought conditions at the cost of latent heat fluxes resulting in an increase in the midday Bowen-ratio from 0.17 to 0.40. Strong smoke

  8. Multi-scale linkages of winter drought variability to ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation: A case study in Shaanxi, North China (United States)

    Liu, Zhiyong; Zhang, Xin; Fang, Ruihong


    Understanding the potential connections between climate indices such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and drought variability will be beneficial for making reasonable predictions or assumptions about future regional droughts, and provide valuable information to improve water resources planning and design for specific regions of interest. This study is to examine the multi-scale relationships between winter drought variability over Shaanxi (North China) and both ENSO and AO during the period 1960-2009. To accomplish this, we first estimated winter dryness/wetness conditions over Shaanxi based on the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). Then, we identified the spatiotemporal variability of winter dryness/wetness conditions in the study area by using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF). Two primary sub-regions of winter dryness/wetness conditions across Shaanxi were identified. We further examined the periodical oscillations of dryness/wetness conditions and the multi-scale relationships between dryness/wetness conditions and both ENSO and AO in winter using wavelet analysis. The results indicate that there are inverse multi-scale relations between winter dryness/wetness conditions and ENSO (according to the wavelet coherence) for most of the study area. Moreover, positive multi-scale relations between winter dryness/wetness conditions and AO are mainly observed. The results could be beneficial for making reasonable predictions or assumptions about future regional droughts and provide valuable information to improve water resources planning and design within this study area. In addition to the current study area, this study may also offer a useful reference for other regions worldwide with similar climate conditions.

  9. Pleistocene Palaeoart of Africa

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    Robert G. Bednarik


    Full Text Available This comprehensive review of all currently known Pleistocene rock art of Africa shows that the majority of sites are located in the continent’s south, but that the petroglyphs at some of them are of exceptionally great antiquity. Much the same applies to portable palaeoart of Africa. The current record is clearly one of paucity of evidence, in contrast to some other continents. Nevertheless, an initial synthesis is attempted, and some preliminary comparisons with the other continents are attempted. Certain parallels with the existing record of southern Asia are defined.

  10. Hominin teeth from the early Late Pleistocene site of Xujiayao, Northern China. (United States)

    Xing, Song; Martinón-Torres, María; Bermúdez de Castro, Jose María; Wu, Xiujie; Liu, Wu


    It is generally accepted that from the late Middle to the early Late Pleistocene (∼340-90 ka BP), Neanderthals were occupying Europe and Western Asia, whereas anatomically modern humans were present in the African continent. In contrast, the paucity of hominin fossil evidence from East Asia from this period impedes a complete evolutionary picture of the genus Homo, as well as assessment of the possible contribution of or interaction with Asian hominins in the evolution of Homo sapiens and Homo neanderthalensis. Here we present a comparative study of a hominin dental sample recovered from the Xujiayao site, in Northern China, attributed to the early Late Pleistocene (MIS 5 to 4). Our dental study reveals a mosaic of primitive and derived dental features for the Xujiayao hominins that can be summarized as follows: i) they are different from archaic and recent modern humans, ii) they present some features that are common but not exclusive to the Neanderthal lineage, and iii) they retain some primitive conformations classically found in East Asian Early and Middle Pleistocene hominins despite their young geological age. Thus, our study evinces the existence in China of a population of unclear taxonomic status with regard to other contemporary populations such as H. sapiens and H. neanderthalensis. The morphological and metric studies of the Xujiayao teeth expand the variability known for early Late Pleistocene hominin fossils and suggest the possibility that a primitive hominin lineage may have survived late into the Late Pleistocene in China. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Investigation of hydrological variability in the Korean Peninsula with the ENSO teleconnections

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    S. Yoon


    Full Text Available This study analyzes nonlinear behavior links with atmospheric teleconnections between hydrologic variables and climate indices using statistical models during warm season (June to September over the Korean Peninsula (KP. The ocean-related major climate factor, which is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO was used to analyze the atmospheric teleconnections by principal component analysis (PCA and a singular spectrum analysis (SSA. The nonlinear lag time correlations between climate indices and hydrologic variables are calculated by Mutual Information (MI technique. The nonlinear correlation coefficients (CCs by MI were higher than linear CCs, and ENSO shows a few months of lag time correlation. The warm season hydrologic variables in KP shows a significant increasing tendency during the warm pool (WP, and the cold tongue (CT El Niño decaying years shows a significant decreasing tendency, while the La Niña year shows slightly above normal conditions, respectively. A better understanding of the relationship between climate indices and streamflow, and their local impacts can help to prepare for the river discharge management by water managers and scientists. Furthermore, these results provide useful data for policy makers and end-users to support long-range water resources prediction and water-related policy.

  12. A New Technique to Observe ENSO Activity via Ground-Based GPS Receivers (United States)

    Suparta, Wayan; Iskandar, Ahmad; Singh, Mandeep Singh Jit

    In an attempt to study the effects of global climate change in the tropics for improving global climate model, this paper aims to detect the ENSO events, especially El Nino phase by using ground-based GPS receivers. Precipitable water vapor (PWV) obtained from the Global Positioning System (GPS) Meteorology measurements in line with the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) are used to connect their response to El Niño activity. The data gathered from four selected stations over the Southeast Asia, namely PIMO (Philippines), KUAL (Malaysia), NTUS (Singapore) and BAKO (Indonesia) for the year of 2009/2010 were processed. A strong correlation was observed for PIMO station with a correlation coefficient of -0.90, significantly at the 99 % confidence level. In general, the relationship between GPS PWV and SSTa at all stations on a weekly basis showed with a negative correlation. The negative correlation indicates that during the El Niño event, the PWV variation was in decreased trend. Decreased trend of PWV value is caused by a dry season that affected the GPS signals in the ocean-atmospheric coupling. Based on these promising results, we can propose that the ground-based GPS receiver is capable used to monitor ENSO activity and this is a new prospective method that previously unexplored.

  13. Early Pleistocene aquatic resource use in the Turkana Basin. (United States)

    Archer, Will; Braun, David R; Harris, Jack W K; McCoy, Jack T; Richmond, Brian G


    Evidence for the acquisition of nutritionally dense food resources by early Pleistocene hominins has implications for both hominin biology and behavior. Aquatic fauna may have comprised a source of highly nutritious resources to hominins in the Turkana Basin at ∼1.95 Ma. Here we employ multiple datasets to examine the issue of aquatic resource use in the early Pleistocene. This study focuses on four components of aquatic faunal assemblages (1) taxonomic diversity, (2) skeletal element proportion, (3) bone fragmentation and (4) bone surface modification. These components are used to identify associations between early Pleistocene aquatic remains and hominin behavior at the site of FwJj20 in the Koobi Fora Fm. (Kenya). We focus on two dominant aquatic species: catfish and turtles. Further we suggest that data on aquatic resource availability as well as ethnographic examples of aquatic resource use complement our observations on the archaeological remains from FwJj20. Aquatic food items provided hominins with a valuable nutritional alternative to an exclusively terrestrial resource base. We argue that specific advantages afforded by an aquatic alternative to terrestrial resources include (1) a probable reduction in required investment of energy relative to economic return in the form of nutritionally dense food items, (2) a decrease in the technological costs of resource acquisition, and (3) a reduced level of inter-specific competition associated with carcass access and an associated reduction of predation risk relative to terrestrial sources of food. The combined evidence from FwJj20 suggests that aquatic resources may have played a substantial role in early Pleistocene diets and these resources may have been overlooked in previous interpretations of hominin behavior. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Pliocene and Pleistocene chronostratigraphy of continental sediments underlying the Altiplano at La Paz, Bolivia (United States)

    Roberts, Nicholas J.; Barendregt, René W.; Clague, John J.


    Continental sediments underlying the Altiplano plateau provide insight into the late Cenozoic evolution of the Central Andes. We characterize the magnetostratigraphy and lithostratigraphy of the upper part of this fill sequence along a transect extending southwestward from the Cordillera Real at La Paz, Bolivia, where it is best exposed. Multiple polarity reversals and the locally extensive, 2.74-Ma Chijini Tuff enable correlation between our six sections and three previously reported sections. The tuff ties the composite polarity sequence to the geomagnetic polarity time scale, demonstrating that the stratigraphic record extends from the latest Gilbert Chron (ca. 3.8 Ma) to the late Olduvai subchron (ca. 1.8 Ma), or possibly Jaramillo subchron (ca. 1.0 Ma). The sequence provides Earth's longest known record of low-latitude glaciation and the only record of Pliocene tropical glaciation. It includes evidence for 16 late Pliocene and Early Pleistocene glaciations, separated by interglacials of sufficient length (>103-104 a) to produce mature soil profiles. Successively larger ice caps formed directly before, during, and after the globally warm mid-Piacenzian (3.265-3.025 Ma), and throughout Plio-Pleistocene climate deterioration. The late Pliocene glacial units predate the onset of widespread Northern Hemisphere continental glaciation and in most cases unambiguously correspond to specific cool peaks of the astronomically tuned, benthic oxygen isotope (δ18O) record, including marine isotope stages MG2, M2, KM2, and G10. The glacial events broadly coincide with those nearer both poles, suggesting inter-hemispheric climate linkages. The early formation and subsequent expansion of ice caps beyond glacier margins of the Last Glacial Maximum suggest that the Cordillera Real likely attained its modern height before ca. 3.4 Ma. The number and timing of glaciations, and long-term sediment accumulation and incision rates suggest that the local Altiplano surface formed by ca

  15. Corporate social responsibility as a business strategy: Stora Enso-WWF partnership project


    Tysiachniouk, M.S.


    The paper analyzes the strategic partnership between transnational corporation Stora-Enso and international nongovernmental organization NGO WWF as a business strategy that helps the company to adopt its business to the turbulent environment of the economy in transition. In this paper I draw from the theory of institutional sociology to explain complex interaction between transnational actors and actors in localities that jointly form a governance generating network in order to implement the ...

  16. Late Pleistocene fishes of the Tennessee River Basin: an analysis of a late Pleistocene freshwater fish fauna from Bell Cave (site ACb-2) in Colbert County, Alabama, USA


    Stephen J. Jacquemin; Jun A. Ebersole; William C. Dickinson; Charles N. Ciampaglio


    The Tennessee River Basin is considered one of the most important regions for freshwater biodiversity anywhere on the globe. The Tennessee River Basin currently includes populations of at least half of the described contemporary diversity of extant North American freshwater fishes, crayfish, mussel, and gastropod species. However, comparatively little is known about the biodiversity of this basin from the Pleistocene Epoch, particularly the late Pleistocene (?10,000 to 30,000 years B.P.) lead...

  17. Implication of biomarkers signatures of the Ulleung Basin, East Sea, during the Pleistocene (United States)

    Choi, Jiyoung; Lee, Kyung Eun; Kim, Ji-Hoon; Bahk, Jang-Jun; Yoo, Dong-Geun


    In this study, the molecular distribution of the n-alkanes, alkenone and C/N ratio and δ13C of bulk sediment were used to assess changes in organic matter (OM) source and transport which could be related with paleoclimate change. The proxy records corresponding to the Pleistocene have been obtained from the well-studied the Ulleung Basin Gas Hydrate Expedition 2 (UBGH2) site 11 in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea. The distribution of carbon preference index (CPI) of n-alkane encountered in this study confirmed the importance of terrestrial OM in the marine sediment. Alkenone has been widely applied for sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction. The data results show that CPI values generally increase with decreasing paleo-SST. Plot of C/N ratio versus δ13C shows a predominance of marine algae origin in the study area. It may indicate that the minimum CPI in warm period is related with the contribution of probably enhanced biodegradation, while the maximum CPI value in cold period result from restrain of OM input associated with sea level lowering. It is likely that the vertical variations of the biomarkers signature reflect the shifts in sedimentary environment and transportation related with change of ocean currents and sea level during the Pleistocene period.

  18. The Anticipation of the ENSO: What Resonantly Forced Baroclinic Waves Can Teach Us (Part II

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    Jean-Louis Pinault


    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to take advantage of recent work on the study of resonantly forced baroclinic waves in the tropical Pacific to significantly reduce systematic and random forecasting errors resulting from the current statistical models intended to predict El Niño. Their major drawback is that sea surface temperature (SST, which is widely used, is very difficult to decipher because of the extreme complexity of exchanges at the ocean-atmosphere interface. In contrast, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO forecasting can be performed between 7 and 8 months in advance precisely and very simply from (1 the subsurface water temperature at particular locations and (2 the time lag of the events (their expected date of occurrence compared to a regular 4-year cycle. Discrimination of precursor signals from objective criteria prevents the anticipation of wrong events, as occurred in 2012 and 2014. The amplitude of the events, their date of appearance, as well as their potential impact on the involved regions are estimated. Three types of ENSO events characterize their climate impact according to whether they are (1 unlagged or weakly lagged, (2 strongly lagged, or (3 out of phase with the annual quasi-stationary wave (QSW (Central Pacific El Niño events. This substantial progress is based on the analysis of baroclinic QSWs in the tropical basin and the resulting genesis of ENSO events. As for cold events, the amplification of La Niña can be seen a few months before the maturation phase of an El Niño event, as occurred in 1998 and 2016.

  19. Summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean during ENSO in the NCEP climate forecast system (United States)

    Chowdary, J. S.; Chaudhari, H. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Suryachandra Rao, A.; Sreenivas, P.; Pokhrel, S.; Singh, P.


    This study investigates the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and their relationship with the Indian summer monsoon in the coupled general circulation model climate forecast system (CFS). The model shows good skill in simulating the impact of El Niño over the Indian Oceanic rim during its decay phase (the summer following peak phase of El Niño). Summer surface circulation patterns during the developing phase of El Niño are more influenced by local Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the model unlike in observations. Eastern TIO cooling similar to that of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a dominant model feature in summer. This anomalous SST pattern therefore is attributed to the tendency of the model to simulate more frequent IOD events. On the other hand, in the model baroclinic response to the diabatic heating anomalies induced by the El Niño related warm SSTs is weak, resulting in reduced zonal extension of the Rossby wave response. This is mostly due to weak eastern Pacific summer time SST anomalies in the model during the developing phase of El Niño as compared to observations. Both eastern TIO cooling and weak SST warming in El Niño region combined together undermine the ENSO teleconnections to the TIO and south Asia regions. The model is able to capture the spatial patterns of SST, circulation and precipitation well during the decay phase of El Niño over the Indo-western Pacific including the typical spring asymmetric mode and summer basin-wide warming in TIO. The model simulated El Niño decay one or two seasons later, resulting long persistent warm SST and circulation anomalies mainly over the southwest TIO. In response to the late decay of El Niño, Ekman pumping shows two maxima over the southern TIO. In conjunction with this unrealistic Ekman pumping, westward propagating Rossby waves display two peaks, which play key role in the long-persistence of the TIO warming in the model (for more than a

  20. What do we need to know to predict ENSO? Student-centered learning in a Master course in Climate Physics (United States)

    Lübbecke, Joke; Glessmer, Mirjam


    An important learning outcome of a Master of Sciences program is to empower students to understand which information they need, how they can gain the required knowledge and skills, and how to apply those to solve a given scientific problem. In designing a class on the El-Nino-Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) for students in the Climate Physics program at Kiel University, Germany, we have implemented various active learning strategies to meet this goal. The course is guided by an overarching question, embedded in a short story: What would we need to know to successfully predict ENSO? The students identify desired learning outcomes and collaboratively construct a concept map which then serves as a structure for the 12 weeks of the course, where each individual topic is situated in the larger context of the students' own concept map. Each learning outcome of the course is therefore directly motivated by a need to know expressed by the students themselves. During each session, students are actively involved in the learning process. They work individually or in small groups, for example testing different index definitions, analyzing data sets, setting up simple numerical models and planning and constructing hands-on experiments to demonstrate physical processes involved in the formation of El Niño events. The instructor's role is to provide the necessary background information and guide the students where it is needed. Insights are shared between groups as students present their findings to each other and combine the information, for example by cooperatively constructing a world map displaying the impacts of ENSO or by exchanging experts on different ENSO oscillator theories between groups. Development of this course was supported by the PerLe Fonds for teaching innovations at Kiel University. A preliminary evaluation has been very positive with students in particular appreciating their active involvement in the class.

  1. Indian Ocean circulation changes over the Middle Pleistocene Transition. (United States)

    Petrick, B.; Auer, G.; De Vleeschouwer, D.; Christensen, B. A.; Stolfi, C.; Reuning, L.; Martinez-Garcia, A.; Haug, G. H.; Bogus, K.


    The Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT; 1.4 - 0.4 Ma) represents a climatic shift towards climate cycles at a quasi-100-kyr frequency. Although, several high-resolution records covering the MPT from globally distributed archives exist, there is only sparse evidence on changes in heat exchange between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, which represents a crucial part of the global thermohaline circulation (THC). Deciphering the influence of this heat exchange via the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is an important step in understanding the causes of the MPT. The Leeuwin Current off Western Australia is directly influenced by the ITF and can therefore be used to reconstruct ITF variability during the MPT. Today, the Leeuwin Current is the only southward flowing eastern boundary current in the southern hemisphere. The onset of the current is unknown but is proposed to have occurred 1 Ma and was likely related to significant changes in ITF dynamics during the MPT We present the first continuous reconstruction of changes in the Leeuwin Current during the MPT using data from IODP Expedition 356 Site U1460. The site is located at 29°S in the path of the current. High sedimentation rates ( 30 cm/ka) at Site U1460 provide the opportunity for high-resolution reconstruction of the MPT. We reconstruct paleoenvironmental variability by combining XRF, organic geochemistry, ICP-MS and XRD data with shipboard data, to reconstruct Leeuwin Current and ITF variability. Initial analyses show clear indications that upwelling off Western Australia intensified during the MPT, indicated by increased primary productivity related to increased nutrient levels, from 900-600 ka. Our results also suggest that the west Australian current (WAC) strengthened during this time supplying cool eutrophic waters from the high southern latitutes to the site. This intensification of the WAC may have had major implications for the Indian Ocean current system, but also the THC at large. This seems to be coupled with

  2. Plio-Pleistocene Hyracoidea from Swartkrans Cave, South Africa

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    the decline in relative abundance and ultimate extinction of this species towards the end of the Pleistocene. Predators can ..... There is no reason to discount the possibility that leopards .... animal bones from archacologicaJ sites. Peabody Mus ...

  3. Impacts of Forest to Urban Land Conversion and ENSO Phase on Water Quality of a Public Water Supply Reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emile Elias


    Full Text Available We used coupled watershed and reservoir models to evaluate the impacts of deforestation and l Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO phase on drinking water quality. Source water total organic carbon (TOC is especially important due to the potential for production of carcinogenic disinfection byproducts (DBPs. The Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC reservoir model is used to evaluate the difference between daily pre- and post- urbanization nutrients and TOC concentration. Post-disturbance (future reservoir total nitrogen (TN, total phosphorus (TP, TOC and chlorophyll-a concentrations were found to be higher than pre-urbanization (base concentrations (p < 0.05. Predicted future median TOC concentration was 1.1 mg·L−1 (41% higher than base TOC concentration at the source water intake. Simulations show that prior to urbanization, additional water treatment was necessary on 47% of the days between May and October. However, following simulated urbanization, additional drinking water treatment might be continuously necessary between May and October. One of six ENSO indices is weakly negatively correlated with the measured reservoir TOC indicating there may be higher TOC concentrations in times of lower streamflow (La Niña. There is a positive significant correlation between simulated TN and TP concentrations with ENSO suggesting higher concentrations during El Niño.

  4. Roles of tropical SST patterns during two types of ENSO in modulating wintertime rainfall over southern China (United States)

    Xu, Kang; Huang, Qing-Lan; Tam, Chi-Yung; Wang, Weiqiang; Chen, Sheng; Zhu, Congwen


    The impacts of the eastern-Pacific (EP) and central-Pacific (CP) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the southern China wintertime rainfall (SCWR) have been investigated. Results show that wintertime rainfall over most stations in southern China is enhanced (suppressed) during the EP (CP) El Niño, which are attributed to different atmospheric responses in the western North Pacific (WNP) and South China Sea (SCS) during two types of ENSO. When EP El Niño occurs, an anomalous low-level anticyclone is present over WNP/the Philippines region, resulting in stronger-than-normal southwesterlies over SCS. Such a wind branch acts to suppress East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and enhance moisture supply, implying surplus SCWR. During CP El Niño, however, anomalous sinking and low-level anticyclonic flow are found to cover a broad region in SCS. These circulation features are associated with moisture divergence over the northern part of SCS and suppressed SCWR. General circulation model experiments have also been conducted to study influence of various tropical sea surface temperature (SST) patterns on the EAWM atmospheric circulation. For EP El Niño, formation of anomalous low-level WNP anticyclone is jointly attributed to positive/negative SST anomalies (SSTA) over the central-to-eastern/ western equatorial Pacific. However, both positive and negative CP Niño-related-SSTA, located respectively over the central Pacific and WNP/SCS, offset each other and contribute a weak but broad-scale anticyclone centered at SCS. These results suggest that, besides the vital role of SST warming, SST cooling over SCS/WNP during two types of El Niño should be considered carefully for understanding the El Niño-EAWM relationship.

  5. Pleistocene and Holocene Iberian flora: a complete picture and review (United States)

    González Sampériz, Penélope


    A detailed analysis of the location and composition of Iberian vegetation types during the whole Pleistocene and Holocene periods shows a complex patched landscape with persistence of different types of ecosystems, even during glacial times. In addition, recent, high-resolution palaeoecological records are changing the traditional picture of post-glacial vegetation succession in the Iberian Peninsula. The main available charcoal and pollen sequences include, coniferous and deciduous forest, steppes, shrublands, savannahs and glacial refugia during the Pleistocene for Meso-thermophytes (phytodiversity reservoirs), in different proportions. This panorama suggests an environmental complexity that relates biotic responses to climate changes forced by Milankovitch cycles, suborbital forcings and by the latitudinal and physiographic particularities of the Iberian Peninsula. Thus, many factors are critical in the course of vegetational developments and strong regional differences are observed since the Early Pleistocene. Currently, the flora of Iberia is located in two biogeographical/climatic regions: the Eurosiberian and the Mediterranean. The first one includes northern and northwestern areas of the peninsula, where post-glacial responses of vegetation are very similar to Central Europe, although with some particularities due to its proximity to both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean region. The second one comprises the main territory of Iberia and shows more complex patterns and singularities, now and in the past. Steppe landscapes dominated extensive areas over all the territory during the cold spells of the Quaternary, especially during the Late Pleistocene up to the Last Glacial Maximum, but differences in composition of the dominant taxa (Compositae versus Artemisia) are observed since the Early Pleistocene, probably related to moisture regional gradients. Coastal shelves and intramountainous valleys, even in continental areas, are spots of floristic

  6. Diversity in the representation of large-scale circulation associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon teleconnections in CMIP5 models (United States)

    Ramu, Dandi A.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Kumar, O. S. R. U. B.


    Realistic simulation of large-scale circulation patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital in coupled models in order to represent teleconnections to different regions of globe. The diversity in representing large-scale circulation patterns associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon (ISM) teleconnections in 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models is examined. CMIP5 models have been classified into three groups based on the correlation between Niño3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) index and ISM rainfall anomalies, models in group 1 (G1) overestimated El Niño-ISM teleconections and group 3 (G3) models underestimated it, whereas these teleconnections are better represented in group 2 (G2) models. Results show that in G1 models, El Niño-induced Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST anomalies are not well represented. Anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the southeastern TIO and western subtropical northwest Pacific (WSNP) cyclonic circulation are shifted too far west to 60° E and 120° E, respectively. This bias in circulation patterns implies dry wind advection from extratropics/midlatitudes to Indian subcontinent. In addition to this, large-scale upper level convergence together with lower level divergence over ISM region corresponding to El Niño are stronger in G1 models than in observations. Thus, unrealistic shift in low-level circulation centers corroborated by upper level circulation changes are responsible for overestimation of ENSO-ISM teleconnections in G1 models. Warm Pacific SST anomalies associated with El Niño are shifted too far west in many G3 models unlike in the observations. Further large-scale circulation anomalies over the Pacific and ISM region are misrepresented during El Niño years in G3 models. Too strong upper-level convergence away from Indian subcontinent and too weak WSNP cyclonic circulation are prominent in most of G3 models in which ENSO-ISM teleconnections are

  7. A Late Pleistocene sea level stack


    Spratt Rachel M; Lisiecki Lorraine E


    Late Pleistocene sea level has been reconstructed from ocean sediment core data using a wide variety of proxies and models. However, the accuracy of individual reconstructions is limited by measurement error, local variations in salinity and temperature, and assumptions particular to each technique. Here we present a sea level stack (average) which increases the signal-to-noise ratio of individual reconstructions. Specifically, we perform principal componen...

  8. High population connectivity and Pleistocene range expansion in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nuclear markers (ATPSα, ATPSβ, ANT, SRPS4, TBP, LTRS and ZMP) showed no sequence variation. Bullia rhodostoma exhibited shallow ... from these refugial regions. Keywords: cytochrome oxidase I, demographic history, Pleistocene climatic changes, population genetic structure, sandy beach ecosystems, sea level ...

  9. Using Remote Sensing Products to Identify Marine Association Patterns in Factors Relating to ENSO in the Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cunjin Xue


    Full Text Available El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO and its relationships with marine environmental parameters comprise a very complicated and interrelated system. Traditional spatiotemporal techniques face great challenges in dealing with which, how, and where the marine environmental parameters in different zones help to drive, and respond to, ENSO events. Remote sensing products covering a 15-year period from 1998 to 2012 were used to quantitatively explore these patterns in the Pacific Ocean (PO by a prevail quantitative association rule mining algorithm, that is, a priori, within a mining framework. The marine environmental parameters considered were monthly anomaly of sea surface chlorophyll-a (CHLA, monthly anomaly of sea surface temperature (SSTA, monthly anomaly of sea level anomaly (SLAA, monthly anomaly of sea surface precipitation (SSPA, and monthly anomaly of sea surface wind speed (WSA. Four significant discoveries are found, namely: (1 Association patterns among marine environmental parameters and ENSO events were found primarily in five sub-regions of the PO: the western PO, the central and eastern tropical PO, the middle of the northern subtropical PO, offshore of the California coast, and the southern PO; (2 In the western and the middle and east of the equatorial PO, the association patterns are more complicated than other regions; (3 The following factors were found to be predicators of and responses to La Niña events: abnormal decrease of SLAA and WSA in the east of the equatorial PO, abnormal decrease of SSPA and WSA in the middle of the equatorial PO, abnormal decrease of SSTA in the eastern and central tropical PO, and abnormal increase of SLAA in the western PO; (4 Only abnormal decrease of CHLA in the middle of the equatorial PO was found to be a predicator of and response to El Niño events. These findings will help to improve our abilities to identify the marine association patterns in factors relating to ENSO events.

  10. Ancient DNA reveals that bowhead whale lineages survived Late Pleistocene climate change and habitat shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foote, Andrew David; Kaschner, Kristin; Schultze, Sebastian E.


    that a true Arctic species, the bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus), shifted its range and tracked its core suitable habitat northwards during the rapid climate change of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. Late Pleistocene lineages survived into the Holocene and effective female population size increased...

  11. The temporal bones from Sima de los Huesos Middle Pleistocene site (Sierra de Atapuerca, Spain). A phylogenetic approach. (United States)

    Martínez, I; Arsuaga, J L


    Three well-preserved crania and 22 temporal bones were recovered from the Sima de los Huesos Middle Pleistocene site up to and including the 1994 field season. This is the largest sample of hominid temporal bones known from a single Middle Pleistocene site and it offers the chance to characterize the temporal bone morphology of an European Middle Pleistocene population and to study the phylogenetic relationships of the SH sample with other Upper and Middle Pleistocene hominids. We have carried out a cladistic analysis based on nine traits commonly used in phylogenetic analysis of Middle and Late Pleistocene hominids: shape of the temporal squama superior border, articular eminence morphology, contribution of the sphenoid bone to the median glenoid wall, postglenoid process projection, tympanic plate orientation, presence of the styloid process, mastoid process projection, digastric groove morphology and anterior mastoid tubercle. We have found two autapomorphies on the Home erectus temporal bone: strong reduction of the postglenoid process and absence of the styloid process. Modern humans, Neandertals and the Middle Pleistocene fossils from Europe and Africa constitute a clade characterized by a convex superior border of the temporal squama. The European Middle Pleistocene fossils from Sima de los Huesos, Petralona, Steinheim, Bilzingsleben and Castel di Guido share a Neandertal apomorphy: a relatively flat articular eminence. The fossils from Ehringsdorf, La Chaise Suardi and Biache-Saint-Vaast also display another Neandertal derived trait: an anteriorly obliterated digastric groove. Modern humans and the African Middle Pleistocene fossils share a synapomorphy: a sagittally orientated tympanic plate.

  12. Storm-related sedimentation influenced by coastal configuration in the stratigraphic record of a tectonically active shelf (Upper Pleistocene Le Castella terrace, Italy) (United States)

    Nalin, Ronald; Massari, Francesco


    Analysis of patterns of coastal circulation and sediment dispersal is an essential step for the study of controlling factors influencing the long-term dynamics of coastal systems. Modern settings offer the possibility to monitor relevant parameters over relatively short time spans. However, geological examples complement this perspective by providing a time-averaged record where longer trends and stratigraphically significant processes can be evaluated. This study investigates the shallow marine deposits of Le Castella terrace (Upper Pleistocene, southern Italy) to document how patterns of circulation influenced by coastline configuration can affect the preserved millennial-scale depositional record of a progradational shoreline system. The regressive portion of the Le Castella terrace deposits, developed during a relative sea-level highstand and falling stage, consists of a progradational wedge mainly composed of redistributed skeletal particles of a coeval shallow water carbonate factory. Preservation of the morphology of the paleocoastline and abundant current-related sedimentary structures allow reconstruction of the predominant sediment dispersal dynamics responsible for the formation of this sedimentary wedge. Facies and paleocurrent analysis indicate offshore and alongshore sediment transport modes, consistent with coastal circulation driven by storms normally incident to the shoreline and a sharp change in coastline orientation. This coastal inflection influenced circulation patterns causing flow separation and eddy formation in the lee of the curved coastline. Syndepositional tectonic deformation also affected the architecture of the preserved deposits, controlling the nucleation and development of a clinostratified body and determining localized lateral stratigraphic variability. This study illustrates how transient but recurrent circulation patterns associated with changes in coastal orientation and related to high-energy storm events can leave a

  13. A comparative study of frontal bone morphology among Pleistocene hominin fossil groups. (United States)

    Athreya, Sheela


    Features of the frontal bone that are conventionally used to distinguish among fossil hominin groups were quantitatively examined. Fifty-five fossil crania dating from the early to the late Pleistocene were analyzed. Using a modified pantograph, outlines of the frontal bone were collected along the midsagittal and two parasagittal planes. The profile from nasion to bregma, as well as two profiles above the medial and lateral sections of the orbit, respectively, extending from the orbital margin to the coronal suture were traced. The outlines were measured using Elliptical Fourier Function Analysis (EFFA), which enabled a quantification of aspects of the frontal bone that have historically been described primarily in nonmetric or linear terms. Four measurements were obtained: 1) overall morphology as expressed in the Fourier harmonic amplitudes; 2) maximum projection of the supraorbital torus at three points along the browridge (glabella and the medial and lateral aspects of the torus above the orbit); 3) maximum distance of the frontal squama from the frontal chord, capturing forehead curvature; and 4) nasion-bregma chord length. The results indicate that the midsagittal profile is significantly different among all Pleistocene groups in analyses that include both size and shape, as well as size-adjusted data. Homo erectus is significantly different from the late Pleistocene groups (Neandertals and early modern H. sapiens) in glabellar projection. Anatomically modern humans are significantly different from all other groups in both raw and size-standardized analyses of all three outlines that captured overall morphology, as well as forehead curvature and lateral supraorbital torus prominence, and middle Pleistocene Homo are significantly different in both medial and lateral overall parasagittal form. However, for the majority of analyses there were no significant differences among the Pleistocene archaic groups in supraorbital torus projection, frontal squama

  14. The impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget in an Indonesian oil palm plantation (United States)

    Stiegler, C.; Meijide, A.; June, T.; Knohl, A.


    Oil palm plantations cover a large fraction of tropical lowlands in Southeast Asia. However, despite their growing areal extent, measurements and observations of greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy balance are still scarce. In addition, the effects of extreme events such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on carbon sequestration and the partitioning of surface energy balance components are widely unknown. In this study, we use micrometeorological measurements located in commercial oil palm plantations in the Jambi province (Sumatra, Indonesia) to assess the impact of the 2015-2016 ENSO event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget. Measurements are in operation since July 2013 and we assess continuously turbulent fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapour and sensible heat using the eddy covariance technique before, during and after the 2015-2016 ENSO event. The full surface energy budget is completed by measurements of radiative components, ground heat fluxes, and soil thermal and hydrological properties. The study is part of a large interdisciplinary project focussing on the ecological and socioeconomic functions of lowland rainforest transformation systems (EFForTS). During the ENSO event, the area experienced a strong drought with decreasing soil moisture and increasing air and surface temperatures. During the peak in September and October 2015, hundreds of fires in the area resulted in strong smoke production decreasing incoming solar radiation and increasing the diffuse fraction. Compared to regular years, the carbon uptake of the oil palm plantation decreased during the ENSO event. The turbulent heat fluxes experienced an increase in sensible heat fluxes due to drought conditions at the cost of latent heat fluxes resulting in an increase in the Bowen-ratio. Overall, the ENSO event resulted in a major anomaly of exchange processes between the oil palm plantation and the atmosphere.

  15. Response of O2 and pH to ENSO in the California Current System in a high-resolution global climate model (United States)

    Turi, Giuliana; Alexander, Michael; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Capotondi, Antonietta; Scott, James; Stock, Charles; Dunne, John; John, Jasmin; Jacox, Michael


    Coastal upwelling systems, such as the California Current System (CalCS), naturally experience a wide range of O2 concentrations and pH values due to the seasonality of upwelling. Nonetheless, changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been shown to measurably affect the biogeochemical and physical properties of coastal upwelling regions. In this study, we use a novel, high-resolution global climate model (GFDL-ESM2.6) to investigate the influence of warm and cold ENSO events on variations in the O2 concentration and the pH of the CalCS coastal waters. An assessment of the CalCS response to six El Niño and seven La Niña events in ESM2.6 reveals significant variations in the response between events. However, these variations overlay a consistent physical and biogeochemical (O2 and pH) response in the composite mean. Focusing on the mean response, our results demonstrate that O2 and pH are affected rather differently in the euphotic zone above ˜ 100 m. The strongest O2 response reaches up to several hundreds of kilometers offshore, whereas the pH signal occurs only within a ˜ 100 km wide band along the coast. By splitting the changes in O2 and pH into individual physical and biogeochemical components that are affected by ENSO variability, we found that O2 variability in the surface ocean is primarily driven by changes in surface temperature that affect the O2 solubility. In contrast, surface pH changes are predominantly driven by changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), which in turn is affected by upwelling, explaining the confined nature of the pH signal close to the coast. Below ˜ 100 m, we find conditions with anomalously low O2 and pH, and by extension also anomalously low aragonite saturation, during La Niña. This result is consistent with findings from previous studies and highlights the stress that the CalCS ecosystem could periodically undergo in addition to impacts due to climate change.

  16. Precipitation and ice core isotopes from the Asian Summer Monsoon region reflect coherent ENSO variability (United States)

    Cai, Z.; Tian, L.; Bowen, G. J.


    Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

  17. The Relationship between El nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phenomenon and Seasonal Precipitation Variability in Eastern Kenya with Special Reference to Katumani: Its Implication to Crop Production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitheka, S.K


    Climatic variability has been defined as a major limitation to agricultural production in semi arid Kenya. The major difficulty to both farmers and research community, has been the inability to to predict seasonal rainfall prior to the season onset. Although several researches have attempted and made advances in predicting rainfall amount, solutions to the problem have not been achieved. This study has examined and related rainfall at Katumani with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Rainfall variations during different phases of ENSO were established. Some advances in the early prediction of March-May and October -January rains for, both, the warm and cold phases of ENSO have been made. Crop production is closely related to the rainfall and therefore a need for revision of agronomic recommendation to tie them with rainfall variation

  18. Early Pleistocene occurrence of Acheulian technology in North China (United States)

    Li, Xingwen; Ao, Hong; Dekkers, Mark J.; Roberts, Andrew P.; Zhang, Peng; Lin, Shan; Huang, Weiwen; Hou, Yamei; Zhang, Weihua; An, Zhisheng


    Acheulian tools with their associated level of cognizance heralded a major threshold in the evolution of hominin technology, culture and behavior. Thus, unraveling occurrence ages of Acheulian technology across different regions worldwide constitutes a key aspect of understanding the archeology of early human evolution. Here we present a magneto-cyclochronology for the Acheulian assemblage from Sanmenxia Basin, Loess Plateau, North China. Our results place a sequence of stable normal and reversed paleomagnetic polarities within a regional lithostratigraphic context. The Acheulian assemblage is dated to be older than the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary at 0.78 Ma, and is found in strata that are probably equivalent to a weak paleosol subunit within loess layer L9 in the Chinese loess-paleosol sequence, which corresponds to marine isotope stage (MIS) 23, a relatively subdued interglacial period with age range of ∼0.89-0.92 Ma. This age of ∼0.9 Ma implies that Acheulian stone tools were unambiguously present in North China during the Early Pleistocene. It distinctly enlarges the geographic distribution of Acheulian technology and brings its occurrence in North China back into the Early Pleistocene, which is contemporaneous with its first emergence in Europe. Combined with other archeological records, the larger area over which Acheulian technology existed in East Asia during the terminal Early Pleistocene has important implications for understanding early human occupation of North China.

  19. Is the modern koala ( Phascolarctos cinereus) a derived dwarf of a Pleistocene giant? Implications for testing megafauna extinction hypotheses (United States)

    Price, Gilbert J.


    The modern Australian koala ( Phascolarctos cinereus) is commonly regarded as a dwarf descendent of a Late Pleistocene giant koala ( Ph. stirtoni). The implication of that hypothesis is that the giant koala survived the Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinction "event", albeit as a smaller body-sized form. It is important to be able to constrain rates of Late Pleistocene faunal turnover, an aspect reliant on having accurate taxonomic information of extinct species. The koala dwarfing hypothesis is tested here by using a temporally-constrained biogeographical record of fossil koalas, and a morphological character analysis. The contemporary occurrence of both taxa in pre-Late Pleistocene deposits and significant differences in dental morphologies between those forms suggests that the modern koala is not a derived dwarf of the Pleistocene giant koala. Thus, the giant-form was among a number of other giant mammals, lizards and birds that suffered extinction sometime during the Late Pleistocene. The potential phenomenon of dwarfing of other Late Pleistocene and Recent faunas, such as grey kangaroos, is commonly used as a test for or against various megafaunal extinction hypotheses. However, the results of this study also demonstrate that the dwarfing hypothesis has not been adequately tested for a suite of other taxa. Thus, until the dwarfing hypothesis can be more fully tested, a clear understanding of the fate of Late Pleistocene faunas that apparently survived the extinction "event", and the origins of many extant forms will remain elusive.

  20. The Pleistocene rivers of the English Channel region (United States)

    Antoine, Pierre; Coutard, Jean-Pierre; Gibbard, Philip; Hallegouet, Bernard; Lautridou, Jean-Pierre; Ozouf, Jean-Claude


    The Pleistocene history of river systems that enter the English Channel from northern France and southern England is reviewed. During periods of low sea-level (cold stages) these streams were tributaries of the Channel River. In southern England the largest, the River Solent, is an axial stream that has drained the Hampshire Basin from the Early Pleistocene or late Pliocene. Other streams of southern England may be of similar antiquity but their records are generally short and their sedimentary history have been destroyed, as in northern Brittany, by coastal erosion and valley deepening as a consequence of tectonic uplift. In northern France, the Seine and Somme rivers have very well developed terrace systems recording incision that began at around 1 Ma. The uplift rate, deduced from the study of these terrace systems, is of 55 to 60 m myr-1 since the end of the Early Pleistocene. Generally the facies and sedimentary structures indicate that the bulk of the deposits in these rivers accumulated in braided river environments under periglacial climates in all the area around the Channel. Evolution of the rivers reflects their responses to climatic change, local geological structure and long-term tectonic activity. In this context the Middle Somme valley is characterised by a regular pattern in which incision occurs at the beginning of each glacial period within a general background of uplift. Nevertheless the response of the different rivers to climatic variations, uplift and sea-level changes is complex and variable according to the different parts of the river courses.

  1. Genetic Pattern and Demographic History of Salminus brasiliensis: Population Expansion in the Pantanal Region during the Pleistocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lívia A. de Carvalho Mondin


    Full Text Available Pleistocene climate changes were major historical events that impacted South American biodiversity. Although the effects of such changes are well-documented for several biomes, it is poorly known how these climate shifts affected the biodiversity of the Pantanal floodplain. Fish are one of the most diverse groups in the Pantanal floodplains and can be taken as a suitable biological model for reconstructing paleoenvironmental scenarios. To identify the effects of Pleistocene climate changes on Pantanal’s ichthyofauna, we used genetic data from multiple populations of a top-predator long-distance migratory fish, Salminus brasiliensis. We specifically investigated whether Pleistocene climate changes affected the demography of this species. If this was the case, we expected to find changes in population size over time. Thus, we assessed the genetic diversity of S. brasiliensis to trace the demographic history of nine populations from the Upper Paraguay basin, which includes the Pantanal floodplain, that form a single genetic group, employing approximate Bayesian computation (ABC to test five scenarios: constant population, old expansion, old decline, old bottleneck following by recent expansion, and old expansion following by recent decline. Based on two mitochondrial DNA markers, our inferences from ABC analysis, the results of Bayesian skyline plot, the implications of star-like networks, and the patterns of genetic diversity (high haplotype diversity and low-to-moderate nucleotide diversity indicated a sudden population expansion. ABC allowed us to make strong quantitative inferences about the demographic history of S. brasiliensis. We estimated a small ancestral population size that underwent a drastic fivefold expansion, probably associated with the colonization of newly formed habitats. The estimated time of this expansion was consistent with a humid and warm phase as inferred by speleothem growth phases and travertine records during

  2. ENSO signals on sea-surface salinity in the eastern tropical pacific ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available SIGNAUX DE L’ENSO SUR LA SALINITE DE LA SURFACE DE LA MER DANS L’OCEAN PACIFIQUE TROPICAL ORIENTAL. Nous présentons les variations de la température et de la salinité de surface. Des navires de commerce ont été récemment équipés de thermosalinographes automatiques qui permettent d’échantillonner en continu et de localiser le front de salinité le long de la ligne Panama-Tahiti, séparant les masses d’eaux du golfe de Panama et celles du Pacifique central sud. La variation en latitude de la position du front halin suit la position de la zone de convergence intertropicale des vents du Pacifique. La salinité donne ainsi des informations supplémentaires sur le développement du phénomène El Niño dans le Pacifique tropical. La future transmission par satellite de la salinité de surface permettra de suivre en temps réel la distribution de la salinité de surface qui est étroitement liée aux échanges entre l’océan et l’atmosphère. SEÑALES DEL ENSO SOBRE LA SALINIDAD DE LA SUPERFICIE DEL OCÉANO PACÍFICO ORIENTAL. Presentamos las variaciones de la temperatura y de la salinidad de superficie. Barcos de comercio fueron recientemente equipados con termo-saliógrafos automáticos, los cuales permiten observar un muestreo continuo y ubicar el frente de salinidad en la recta Panamá-Tahiti, la cual separa las masas de agua del golfo de Panamá con las del Pacífico centro Sur. La variación en latitud de la ubicación del frente halino acompaña a la posición de la Zona de Convergencia Intertropical de los vientos del Pacífico. La salinidad proporciona también informaciones adicionales sobre el desarrollo del Fenómeno El Niño en el Pacífico tropical. La futura transmisión por satélite de la salinidad de superficie permitirá el monitoreo en tiempo real de la distribución en tiempo real de la salinidad de superficie, la cual está estrechamente vinculada con los intercambios entre el océano y la atmósfera. Various data

  3. Small mammal diversity loss in response to late-Pleistocene climatic change. (United States)

    Blois, Jessica L; McGuire, Jenny L; Hadly, Elizabeth A


    Communities have been shaped in numerous ways by past climatic change; this process continues today. At the end of the Pleistocene epoch about 11,700 years ago, North American communities were substantially altered by the interplay of two events. The climate shifted from the cold, arid Last Glacial Maximum to the warm, mesic Holocene interglacial, causing many mammal species to shift their geographic distributions substantially. Populations were further stressed as humans arrived on the continent. The resulting megafaunal extinction event, in which 70 of the roughly 220 largest mammals in North America (32%) became extinct, has received much attention. However, responses of small mammals to events at the end of the Pleistocene have been much less studied, despite the sensitivity of these animals to current and future environmental change. Here we examine community changes in small mammals in northern California during the last 'natural' global warming event at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and show that even though no small mammals in the local community became extinct, species losses and gains, combined with changes in abundance, caused declines in both the evenness and richness of communities. Modern mammalian communities are thus depauperate not only as a result of megafaunal extinctions at the end of the Pleistocene but also because of diversity loss among small mammals. Our results suggest that across future landscapes there will be some unanticipated effects of global change on diversity: restructuring of small mammal communities, significant loss of richness, and perhaps the rising dominance of native 'weedy' species.

  4. Demographic expansion of two Tamarix species along the Yellow River caused by geological events and climate change in the Pleistocene. (United States)

    Liang, Hong-Yan; Feng, Zhi-Pei; Pei, Bing; Li, Yong; Yang, Xi-Tian


    The geological events and climatic fluctuations during the Pleistocene played important roles in shaping patterns of species distribution. However, few studies have evaluated the patterns of species distribution that were influenced by the Yellow River. The present work analyzed the demography of two endemic tree species that are widely distributed along the Yellow River, Tamarix austromongolica and Tamarix chinensis, to understand the role of the Yellow River and Pleistocene climate in shaping their distribution patterns. The most common chlorotype, chlorotype 1, was found in all populations, and its divergence time could be dated back to 0.19 million years ago (Ma). This dating coincides well with the formation of the modern Yellow River and the timing of Marine Isotope Stages 5e-6 (MIS 5e-6). Bayesian reconstructions along with models of paleodistribution revealed that these two species experienced a demographic expansion in population size during the Quaternary period. Approximate Bayesian computation analyses supported a scenario of expansion approximately from the upper to lower reaches of the Yellow River. Our results provide support for the roles of the Yellow River and the Pleistocene climate in driving demographic expansion of the populations of T. austromongolica and T. chinensis. These findings are useful for understanding the effects of geological events and past climatic fluctuations on species distribution patterns.

  5. Holocene estuarine sediments as a source of arsenic in Pleistocene groundwater in suburbs of Hanoi, Vietnam (United States)

    Kuroda, Keisuke; Hayashi, Takeshi; Funabiki, Ayako; Do, An Thuan; Canh, Vu Duc; Nga, Tran Thi Viet; Takizawa, Satoshi


    Groundwater pollution by arsenic is a major health threat in suburban areas of Hanoi, Vietnam. The present study evaluates the effect of the sedimentary environments of the Pleistocene and Holocene deposits, and the recharge systems, on the groundwater arsenic pollution in Hanoi suburbs distant from the Red River. At two study sites (Linh Dam and Tai Mo communes), undisturbed soil cores identified a Pleistocene confined aquifer (PCA) and Holocene unconfined aquifer (HUA) as major aquifers, and Holocene estuarine and deltaic sediments as an aquitard layer between the two aquifers. The Holocene estuarine sediments (approximately 25-40 m depth, 9.6-4.8 cal ka BP) contained notably high concentrations of arsenic and organic matter, both likely to have been accumulated by mangroves during the Holocene sea-level highstand. The pore waters in these particular sediments exhibited elevated levels of arsenic and dissolved organic carbon. Arsenic in groundwater was higher in the PCA (25-94 μg/L) than in the HUA (5.2-42 μg/L), in both the monitoring wells and neighboring household tubewells. Elevated arsenic concentration in the PCA groundwater was likely due to vertical infiltration through the arsenic-rich and organic-matter-rich overlying Holocene estuarine sediments, caused by massive groundwater abstraction from the PCA. Countermeasures to prevent arsenic pollution of the PCA groundwater may include seeking alternative water resources, reducing water consumption, and/or appropriate choice of aquifers for groundwater supply.

  6. Rodent burrows in late Pleistocene paleosols at Korean Palaeolithic sites and their implications for paleoclimate changes (United States)

    Lim, H.; Park, S.; Lee, J.; Lee, Y.


    Rodent burrows are commonly found at many Paleolithic archaeological sites in Korea. They are nearly straight in horizontal view and gently inclined in lateral view. Burrow diameters are mostly 7 - 10cm, and burrow length may reach a few meters. Vertical penetration depths are generally about 1 m from the surface, and the thickness of the burrow-bearing layer is about 1-2 m. Although no remains (bones, teeth, claws, and coprolites) were found within burrows, they are interpreted to have been produced by rodent-like mammals (probably ground squirrels) based on the size and architecture. According to the previous study, the age of these burrows was constrained to be between ca. 40,000 and 25,000 yr BP by tephrochronology, radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence dating results (Lim et al., 2007). However, little is known about the reason why these burrows have disappeared after late Pleistocene time. For this question, two explanations can be considered: extinction or migration. Since same kinds of burrows are still found in the high-latitude regions, such as Mongolia and North America, the possibility of extinction can be ruled out. Therefore, migration seems to be the most likely explanation. Our results show that the destruction of habitat caused by climate change during this period is the main reason for the northward migration of burrowing animals. This study suggests that rodent burrows found in the late Pleistocene paleosols can provide useful information on paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental changes.

  7. ENSO and interdecadal climate variability over the last century documented by geochemical records of two coral cores from the South West Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Ourbak


    Full Text Available The south west Pacific is affected by climatic phenomena such as ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation or the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Near-monthly resolution calibrations of Sr/Ca, U/Ca and δ18Oc were made on corals taken from New Caledonia and Wallis Island. These geochemical variations could be linked to SST (sea surface temperature and SSS (sea surface salinity variations over the last two decades, itselves dependent on ENSO occurrences. On the other hand, near-half-yearly resolution over the last century smoothes seasonal and interannual climate signals, but emphasizes low frequency climate variability.

  8. Late Pleistocene ecological, environmental and climatic reconstruction based on megafauna stable isotopes from northwestern Chilean Patagonia (United States)

    González-Guarda, Erwin; Domingo, Laura; Tornero, Carlos; Pino, Mario; Hernández Fernández, Manuel; Sevilla, Paloma; Villavicencio, Natalia; Agustí, Jordi


    Stable isotope analyses have been performed on the bioapatite (δ13C; δ18O) and collagen (δ13C; δ15N) of four late Pleistocene South American megafaunal taxa (Notiomastodon platensis, Equus andium, cf. Hemiauchenia paradoxa and Xenarthra indet.) to evaluate paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental conditions as well as paleoecological features of this time period. The analyzed megafauna was found at several locations in the northwestern Chilean Patagonia (38°-42°S, 74°-71°W). The bioapatite δ13C values indicated the presence of C3 vegetation ranging from forestal to woodland areas. The collagen δ15N values pointed to temperate and humid ecosystems, and to the consumption of shrubs, trees, grasses and sedges. Mean annual temperatures estimated from bioapatite δ18OPO4 values show a similarity to modern temperatures and suggested that the megafauna under study may have lived during warm stages (interstadials) of the late Pleistocene. When comparing our results with those obtained from other South American regions, we find that the diet of this particular Chilean megafauna appears to have been more influenced by resource availability than by the potential dietary range of the taxa.

  9. Acinonyx pardinensis (Carnivora, Felidae) from the Early Pleistocene of Pantalla (Italy): predatory behavior and ecological role of the giant Plio-Pleistocene cheetah (United States)

    Cherin, Marco; Iurino, Dawid Adam; Sardella, Raffaele; Rook, Lorenzo


    The site of Pantalla (central Italy) yielded a rich late Villafranchian (Early Pleistocene) faunal assemblage, which includes some well-preserved large mammal skulls. We describe here two nearly complete crania and a left hemimandible of Acinonyx pardinensis from this locality, representing the most complete cranial material of this species in Europe. These finds allowed us to define more clearly the craniodental morphology of A. pardinensis. Similarly to the forms from North Africa and China, the giant cheetah from Pantalla has a more generalized skull than the living Acinonyx jubatus, showing some primitive, pantherine-like features such as the less domed dorsal outline of the cranium, the more developed sagittal and nuchal crests and the less bowed zygomatic arches. High-resolution CT scans of the specimens were used to obtain the first 3D model of a cranium with articulated mandible of A. pardinensis. Starting from the insertion areas on this model we reconstructed the jaw muscles of the Pantalla felid, confirming its affinities with pantherine felines. In the light of the musculoskeletal skull anatomy and the average body mass (about 80 kg), it is likely that A. pardinensis could kill large prey through a hunting strategy more similar to pantherine cats than to the living cheetah.

  10. Drainage system inversion in the Guadalentin Depression during the Late Pleistocene-Holocene (Murcia, Spain)

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    Calmel-Avila, M.; Silva, P. G.; Bardaji, T.; Goy, J. L.; Zazo, C.


    This article presents the results of studies conducted in the central sector of Guadalentin depression (Murcia) for the abnormal accumulation (more than 17 m) of Pleistocene and Holocene deposits upstream of Romeral tectonic threshold (Librilla). {sup 1}4C dating. ruins and archaeological sites, together with its stratigraphic analysis show that the three sequences that constitute the Holocene detrital filling of the Depression, prograded are superimposed on the upper Pleistocene travertine upstream from the confluence of the River Guadalentin the Rambla de Librilla. Between Librilla and threshold Romeral Holocene deposits only appear along the left bank (15-17m). By contrast the right side shows significant lifting of the Pleistocene travertine up area Romeral threshold, where the substrate allora Neogene. (Author) 11 refs.

  11. Thermoluminescence dating of pleistocene sediments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poupeau, G.; Souza, J.H.


    After a short introduction on recent trends in quaternary geochronology, this article focuses on the thermoluminescence (TL) dating of sediments, whose principles, present limits and prospects are discussed. Results are presented for TL behavior of sands from various geological contexts in Brazil. They show that the coarse (approx. 100-200 μm) quartz fraction of coastal and intracontinental, eolian and fluvial - type deposits, might be datable by TL from the upper Holocene to at least the base of the upper Pleistocene, with a precision of +- 10-15%. (Author) [pt

  12. Thermoluminescence dating of pleistocene sediments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poupeau, G.; Souza, J.H.; Rivera, A.


    After a short introduction on recent trends in quaternary geochronology, this article focuses on the thermoluminescence dating of sediments, whose principles and present limits and prospects are discussed. Results are presented for the TL behaviour of sands from various geological contexts in Brazil. They show that the coarse (approx. 100-200μm) quartz fraction of coastal and intra continental, eolian and fluvial-type deposits, might be datable by TL from the upper Holocene to at least the basis of the upper Pleistocene, with a precision of + - 10-15%. (Author) [pt

  13. Periglacial fires and trees in a continental setting of Central Canada, Upper Pleistocene. (United States)

    Bélanger, N; Carcaillet, C; Padbury, G A; Harvey-Schafer, A N; Van Rees, K J C


    Fire is a key factor controlling global vegetation patterns and carbon cycling. It mostly occurs under warm periods during which fuel builds up with sufficient moisture, whereas such conditions stimulate fire ignition and spread. Biomass burning increased globally with warming periods since the last glacial era. Data confirming periglacial fires during glacial periods are very sparse because such climates are likely too cold to favour fires. Here, tree occurrence and fires during the Upper Pleistocene glacial periods in Central Canada are inferred from botanical identification and calibrated radiocarbon dates of charcoal fragments. Charcoal fragments were archived in sandy dunes of central Saskatchewan and were dated >50000-26600 cal BP. Fragments were mostly gymnosperms. Parallels between radiocarbon dates and GISP2-δ¹⁸O records deciphered relationships between fire and climate. Fires occurred either hundreds to thousands of years after Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) interstadial warming events (i.e., the time needed to build enough fuel for fire ignition and spread) or at the onset of the DO event. The chronological uncertainties result from the dated material not precisely matching the fires and from the low residual ¹⁴C associated with old sample material. Dominance of high-pressure systems and low effective moisture during post-DO coolings likely triggered flammable periglacial ecosystems, while lower moisture and the relative abundance of fuel overshadowed lower temperatures for fire spread. Laurentide ice sheet (LIS) limits during DO events are difficult to assess in Central Canada due to sparse radiocarbon dates. Our radiocarbon data set constrains the extent of LIS. Central Saskatchewan was not covered by LIS throughout the Upper Pleistocene and was not a continental desert. Instead, our results suggest long-lasting periods where fluctuations of the northern tree limits and fires after interstadials occurred persistently. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Perceived competence and warmth influence respect, liking and trust in work relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleszkiewicz Anna


    Full Text Available Many studies confirmed the positive effect of trust on human relations and performance in organizations. As a social judgment, trust should be related to perceived competence and warmth as two basic dimensions of person perception. Surprisingly, to date no attempts have been made to examine the influence of attributed competence and warmth on social judgments in interpersonal relations at work. To this end, we examine the influence of perceived competence and warmth on trust, liking and respect in upward and downward work relations. A study involving 190 middle-stage managers revealed that the two fundamental dimensions of social cognition (competence and warmth influence respect, liking and trust. Competence had a stronger effect on respect than warmth; the opposite was true for liking. Trust was conditioned by both competence and warmth to an equal, high extent. At the same time, warmth expressed by supervisors led to higher results in liking, respect and trust in them than warmth expressed by subordinates.

  15. A tale of ENSO, PDO, and increasing aridity impacts on drought-deciduous shrubs in the Death Valley region. (United States)

    Ehleringer, James R; Sandquist, Darren R


    Germination, establishment, phenology, and death among three drought-deciduous shrubs were influenced by ENSO/PDO and precipitation, based on 37 years of annual surveys. Encelia farinosa forms near monospecific stands on slopes, whereas E. frutescens and Ambrosia salsola dominate wash habitats. All shrubs exhibited phenological coherence. While germination, establishment, and mortality patterns were similar among wash species, these dynamics contrasted with E. farinosa on slopes. Germination was associated with El Niño years. Slope plant establishment was dependent on precipitation in the subsequent year, but not evidently so in wash species. Major mortality events were episodic, with Encelia mortality just as likely to occur in years with below or above average precipitation. In both Encelia species, mortality was associated with transitions to a cold PDO phase. In E. frutescens this response was more rapid, whereas in E. farinosa mortality lagged 1 year, resulting in contrasting slope-wash mortality patterns. 50% of newly established shrubs died within 5, 5, and 18 years for E. frutescens, E. farinosa, and A. salsola, respectively. The 90% mortality ages were 26 years for E. frutescens, 24 years for E. farinosa, and 51 years for A. salsola. While maximum life expectancies are unknown, estimated maximum life expectancies were 56, 66, and 86 years for E. frutescens, E. farinosa, and A. salsola, respectively. Overall, as the climate has become more arid over the past four decades, the populations in both slope and wash habitats have exhibited similar responses: reduced shrub abundances and reduced total supportable leaf areas.

  16. Geologic Setting and Preservation of a Late Pleistocene Bald Cypress Forest Discovered on the Northern Gulf of Mexico Continental Shelf (United States)

    Gonzalez Rodriguez, S. M.; Bentley, S. J.; DeLong, K. L.; Xu, K.; Harley, G. L.; Reese, C. A.; Obelcz, J.


    Following landfall of Hurricane Ivan in 2004, a previously buried bald cypress forest (Taxodium distichum) was discovered on the continental shelf seafloor, offshore of Orange Beach, Alabama, USA, in 20 m of water. The forest is preserved as stumps in life position with little evidence of decay and large pieces of trunks, roots, and branches. Analysis shows the forest is older than can be dated with conventional C-14 methods. Comparison of Pleistocene sea level curves with the study area depth suggests that the forest developed and was likely buried during marine isotope stage 3 or 4, or perhaps older stages. Condition of sampled wood suggests that the forest was buried and preserved in anoxic sediments for millennia, prior to recent exhumation. To better understand the puzzling geological conditions that could allow forest preservation during sea level fall and shelf exposure spanning >30,000 years, submersible vibracores (to 6 m length) and geophysical data (swath bathymetry, sidescan, and chirp subbottom) were collected in August 2015. Cores are being analyzed using a Geotek Multi Sensor Core Logger, granulometric and sediment composition analyses, and a wide range of paleoenvironmental observations. This presentation focuses on the geological setting and mode of forest preservation. Preliminary analysis of sediment types and stratigraphy in cores shows that the local stratigraphy is broadly consistent with previous regional shelf-stratigraphic studies, consisting of (top to bottom) a surface layer of Holocene transgressive sands (to 3 m thick) unconformably overlying Pleistocene terrestrial and coastal deposits. However, the Pleistocene lithofacies (fluvial, backswamp, or possibly delta plain muds) differ considerably in both depositional environment and degree of environmental preservation compared to previous studies. Ongoing analysis will focus on elucidating the succession of events that allows preservation of this unique Pleistocene sedimentary archive.

  17. The Pliocene initiation and Early Pleistocene volcanic disruption of the palaeo-Gediz fluvial system, Western Turkey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maddy, D.; Demir, T.; Bridgland, D.R.; Veldkamp, A.; Stemerdink, C.; Schriek, van der T.; Schreve, D.


    In this paper, we report our latest observations concerning a Pliocene and Early Pleistocene record from Western Turkey. The sedimentary sequence described comprises the fluvial deposits of an Early Pleistocene palaeo-Gediz river system and its tributaries prior to the onset of volcanism around Kula

  18. The medial pterygoid tubercle in the Atapuerca Early and Middle Pleistocene mandibles: evolutionary implications. (United States)

    Bermúdez de Castro, José-María; Quam, Rolf; Martinón-Torres, María; Martínez, Ignacio; Gracia-Téllez, Ana; Arsuaga, Juan Luís; Carbonell, Eudald


    Numerous studies have attempted to identify the presence of uniquely derived (autoapomorphic) Neandertal features. Here, we deal with the medial pterygoid tubercle (MTP), which is usually present on the internal face of the ascending ramus of Neandertal specimens. Our study stems from the identification of a hypertrophied tubercle in ATD6-96, an Early Pleistocene mandible recovered from the TD6 level of the Atapuerca-Gran Dolina site and attributed to Homo antecessor. Our review of the literature and study of numerous original fossil specimens and high quality replicas confirm that the MTP occurs at a high frequency in Neandertals (ca. 89%) and is also present in over half (ca. 55%) of the Middle Pleistocene Sima de los Huesos (SH) hominins. In contrast, it is generally absent or minimally developed in other extinct hominins, but can be found in variable frequencies (Pleistocene and recent H. sapiens samples. The presence of this feature in ATD6-96 joins other traits shared by H. antecessor, the SH hominins and Neandertals. Since the TD6 hominins have been attributed either to MIS 21 or to MIS 25, it seems that a suite of assumed derived Neandertal features appeared in the Early Pleistocene, and they should be interpreted as synapomorphies shared among different taxa. We suggest that H. antecessor, the SH hominins and Neandertals shared a common ancestor in which these features appeared during the Early Pleistocene. The presence of the MTP in taxa other than H. neanderthalensis precludes this feature from being a Neandertal autapomorphy. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Late Miocene-Pleistocene evolution of a Rio Grande rift subbasin, Sunshine Valley-Costilla Plain, San Luis Basin, New Mexico and Colorado (United States)

    Ruleman, C.A.; Thompson, R.A.; Shroba, R.R.; Anderson, M.; Drenth, B.J.; Rotzien, J.; Lyon, J.


    The Sunshine Valley-Costilla Plain, a structural subbasin of the greater San Luis Basin of the northern Rio Grande rift, is bounded to the north and south by the San Luis Hills and the Red River fault zone, respectively. Surficial mapping, neotectonic investigations, geochronology, and geophysics demonstrate that the structural, volcanic, and geomorphic evolution of the basin involves the intermingling of climatic cycles and spatially and temporally varying tectonic activity of the Rio Grande rift system. Tectonic activity has transferred between range-bounding and intrabasin faults creating relict landforms of higher tectonic-activity rates along the mountain-piedmont junction. Pliocene–Pleistocene average long-term slip rates along the southern Sangre de Cristo fault zone range between 0.1 and 0.2 mm/year with late Pleistocene slip rates approximately half (0.06 mm/year) of the longer Quaternary slip rate. During the late Pleistocene, climatic influences have been dominant over tectonic influences on mountain-front geomorphic processes. Geomorphic evidence suggests that this once-closed subbasin was integrated into the Rio Grande prior to the integration of the once-closed northern San Luis Basin, north of the San Luis Hills, Colorado; however, deep canyon incision, north of the Red River and south of the San Luis Hills, initiated relatively coeval to the integration of the northern San Luis Basin.Long-term projections of slip rates applied to a 1.6 km basin depth defined from geophysical modeling suggests that rifting initiated within this subbasin between 20 and 10 Ma. Geologic mapping and geophysical interpretations reveal a complex network of northwest-, northeast-, and north-south–trending faults. Northwest- and northeast-trending faults show dual polarity and are crosscut by north-south– trending faults. This structural model possibly provides an analog for how some intracontinental rift structures evolve through time.

  20. Pattern of dental development in Hominid XVIII from the Middle Pleistocene Atapuerca-Sima de los Huesos site (Spain). (United States)

    Bermudez De Castro, J M; Rosas, A


    . We describe the pattern of dental development of Hominid XVIII from the Middle Pleistocene Sima de los Huesos (SH) site of the Sierra de Atapuerca (Burgos, Spain). As expected, this pattern is similar to that of modern humans. A delay of development of the lower and upper canines was observed. In contrast, the relative advanced development of the lower second molars and, especially, the upper and lower third molars is noteworthy. This latter feature seems to be common in Pleistocene hominids, and suggests that the pattern of dental development evolved in the genus Homo during the Pleistocene. In European Middle Pleistocene hominids, this pattern probably was facilitated by the extra space available in the mandible and maxilla for developing teeth. Copyright 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  1. A middle Pleistocene eastern Mediterranean fish refuge: the Tsampika Bay (Rhodes, Greece) (United States)

    Agiadi, K.; Koskeridou, E.; Moissette, P.; Lopez-Otalvaro, G. E.; Quillévéré, F.; Cornée, J. J.


    Extensive sampling of the Tsampika marly diatomites reveals the presence of at least three very important fish species, Bregmaceros sp., Sygnathus acus and Spratteloides sp.. Previous records of Bregmaceros sp. in the Mediterranean have suggested that this characteristic Pliocene warm-water circumglobal pelagic fish disappeared from the Mediterranean basin due to the climatic deterioration, after the Gelasian age1,2,3,4. The Tsampika fish-bearing deposits, mainly marly diatomites, are younger than 268 Ka, based on the occurrence of Emiliania huxleyi. Consequently, this is so far the youngest record of Bregmaceros sp. in the Mediterranean, suggesting that typical Pliocene fish may have found refuge in selected localities, such as Tsampika Bay, at least until the Ionian. Evidence for its presence in the Mediterranean basin today is ambiguous. Isolated records of Bregmaceros atlanticus place it in the Sicily Strait5, and off the Israeli and south Turkish coasts6. Although it appears more likely that Bregmaceros atlanticus has been introduced to the modern Mediterranean from the Red Sea, through the Suez Canal, the possibility that it is part of a small population native to the Mediterranean can not be excluded based on present-day data6. Indeed the late Pleistocene Mediterranean fish record is obsolete, due to the lack of appropriate sampling on this subject. Furthermore, the majority of Pleistocene Bregmaceros samples pertain to otoliths, which cannot be unambiguously identified on the species level. As a result, the present findings pose the considerable possibility that the Pleistocene Bregmaceros records belong to two species, B. albyi, the well known post-Messinian Mediterranean fish, and B. atlanticus, which may have invaded the Mediterranean Sea from Gibraltar along with several other warm-water taxa during recurring interglacial periods. The specific identification of the Tsampika fish will undoubtedly shed light to this possibility, and enhance our knowledge

  2. Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming (United States)

    Li, Yang; Li, Jianping; Zhang, Wenjun; Chen, Quanliang; Feng, Juan; Zheng, Fei; Wang, Wei; Zhou, Xin


    The causes of ENSO diversity, although being of great interest in recent research, do not have a consistent explanation. This study provides a possible mechanism focused on the background change of the tropical Pacific as a response to global warming. The second empirical orthogonal function mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific, namely the cold tongue mode (CTM), represents the background change of the tropical Pacific under global warming. Using composite analysis with surface observations and subsurface ocean assimilation data sets, we find ENSO spatial structure diversity is closely associated with the CTM. A positive CTM tends to cool the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warm the SST outside, as well as widen (narrow) zonal and meridional scales for El Niño (La Niña), and vice versa. Particularly in the positive CTM phase, the air-sea action center of El Niño moves west, resembling the spatial pattern of CP-El Niño. This westward shift of center is related to the weakened Bjerknes feedback (BF) intensity by the CTM. By suppressing the SSTA growth of El Niño in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the CTM contributes to more frequent occurrence of CP-El Niño under global warming.

  3. Vegetal paleoenvironment in the human settlements found in Payre Cave at the end of the Middle Pleistocene and the beginning of the Upper Pleistocene (Ardeche, Francia

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    Kalai, Chafika


    Full Text Available The Middle Paleolithic site named Payre is located in the south-east of France, in the Middle Rhone Valley, in the Mediterranean world. Since 1990, the excavations have yielded a sequence dated from the isotopic stages 7 to 5. The palynological study based on settlement levels from the isotopic stages 6 and 5 has provided us with information about the vegetal environment of the end of the Middle Pleistocene and the beginning of the Upper Pleistocene. When men came, the landscape was semi-forest and the climate was temperate with Mediterranean influences.

    [es] El emplazamiento arqueológico del Paleolítico Medio de Payre se sitúa al sureste de Francia, en el valle del Ródano, en el contexto mediterráneo actual. Las excavaciones que vienen llevándose a cabo desde 1990 presentan una secuencia fechada en los estadios isotópicos 7 al 5. El estudio palinológico de los niveles de ocupación de los estadios isotópicos 6 y 5 nos informan sobre el contexto vegetal del final del Pleistoceno Medio y de principios del Pleistoceno Superior. Los diferentes periodos climáticos se caracterizan por la predominancia de los taxones arbóreos como Quercus t. ilex y Buxus. El paisaje es a lo largo del diagrama, globalmente semi-abierto y el clima de tipo templado presenta influencias mediterráneas. [fr] Le gisement paléolithique moyen de Payre est situé dans le sud-est de la France, dans la moyenne vallée du Rhône en contexte méditerranéen. Les fouilles, qui s'y déroulent depuis 1990, livrent une séquence datée des stades isotopiques 7 à 5. L'étude palynologique des niveaux d'occupation des stades isotopiques 6 et 5 nous informe sur le contexte végétal de la fin du Pléistocène moyen et du début du Pléistocène supérieur. Le paysage est, lors des diverses occupations humaines, globalement semi-ouvert et le climat de type tempéré sous influence méditerranéenne.

  4. Estimating the human influence on Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria (United States)

    Wehner, M. F.; Patricola, C. M.; Risser, M. D.


    Attribution of the human-induced climate change influence on the physical characteristics of individual extreme weather events has become an advanced science over the past decade. However, it is only recently that such quantification of anthropogenic influences on event magnitudes and probability of occurrence could be applied to very extreme storms such as hurricanes. We present results from two different classes of attribution studies for the impactful Atlantic hurricanes of 2017. The first is an analysis of the record rainfall amounts during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas area. We analyzed observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of ENSO. We found that human-induced climate change likely increased Hurricane Harvey's total rainfall by at least 19%, and likely increased the chances of the observed rainfall by a factor of at least 3.5. This suggests that changes exceeded Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, motivating attribution studies using dynamical climate models. The second analysis consists of two sets of hindcast simulations of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at 4.5 km resolution. The first uses realistic boundary and initial conditions and present-day greenhouse gas forcings while the second uses perturbed conditions and pre-industrial greenhouse has forcings to simulate counterfactual storms without anthropogenic influences. These simulations quantify the fraction of Harvey's precipitation attributable to human activities and test the super Clausius-Clapeyron scaling suggested by the observational analysis. We will further quantify the human influence on intensity for Harvey, Irma, and Maria.

  5. The southernmost record of a large erethizontid rodent (Hystricomorpha: Erethizontoidea) in the Pleistocene of South America: Biogeographic and paleoenvironmental implications (United States)

    Vezzosi, Raúl I.; Kerber, Leonardo


    The South American porcupines (Erethizontidae) are included in two genera: Chaetomys and Coendou. The latter is a very speciose taxon, with about 13 living species. During at least the late Pliocene-early Pleistocene, erethizontids immigrated to Central and North America during the Great American Biotic Interchange. Although some Pleistocene fossils have been reported, the Quaternary history of this clade is still understudied. The only known extinct species is Coendou magnus. In this work, a fossil of a porcupine is reported from an Upper Pleistocene fluvial sedimentary sequence cropping out in the Northern Pampa geomorphological region, Santa Fe Province, Argentina. Despite this group having different living forms widely distributed in South American Neotropical woodland habitats, the Pleistocene occurrences of Erethizontidae are scarce and limited to Upper Pleistocene deposits from Bolivia, Brazil, and Uruguay. Currently, the specimen here reported represents the only Pleistocene porcupine from Argentina with a stratigraphical context. The morphological characters as well as the dimensions indicate that it is close to the Pleistocene erethizontid Coendou magnus. In this context, the presence of this erethizontid in such a southern locality, together with other taxa recorded from this site and the associated geological and paleoenvironmental evidence, indicates subtropical conditions, compared with the current conditions, which may have allowed a southern displacement of taxa more related to woodlands and xeric subtropical environments.

  6. Zonation of uplifted pleistocene coral reefs on barbados, west indies. (United States)

    Mesolella, K J


    The coral species composition of uplifted Pleistocene reefs on Barbados is very similar to Recent West Indian reefs. Acropora palmata, Acropora cervicornis, and Montastrea annularis are qtuantitatively the most important of the coral species.

  7. Using obsidian transfer distances to explore social network maintenance in late Pleistocene hunter-gatherers. (United States)

    Pearce, Eiluned; Moutsiou, Theodora


    Social behaviour is notoriously difficult to study archaeologically and it is unclear how large the networks of prehistoric humans were, or how they remained connected. Maintaining social cohesion was crucial for early humans because social networks facilitate cooperation and are imperative for survival and reproduction. Recent hunter-gatherer social organisation typically comprises a number of nested layers, ranging from the nuclear family through to the ~1500-strong ethnolinguistic tribe. Here we compare maximum obsidian transfer distances from the late Pleistocene with ethnographic data on the size of the geographic areas associated with each of these social grouping layers in recent hunter-gatherers. The closest match between the two is taken to indicate the maximum social layer within which contact could be sustained by Pleistocene hominins. Within both the (sub)tropical African and Subarctic biomes, the maximum obsidian transfer distances for Pleistocene modern humans (~200km and ~400km respectively) correspond to the geographic ranges of the outermost tribal layer in recent hunter-gatherers. This suggests that modern humans could potentially sustain the cohesion of their entire tribe at all latitudes, even though networks are more dispersed nearer the poles. Neanderthal obsidian transfer distances (300km) indicate that although Neanderthal home ranges are larger than those of low latitude hominins, Neanderthals travelled shorter distances than modern humans living at the same high latitudes. We argue that, like modern humans, Neanderthals could have maintained tribal cohesion, but that their tribes were substantially smaller than those of contemporary modern humans living in similar environments. The greater time taken to traverse the larger modern human tribal ranges may have limited the frequency of their face-to-face interactions and thus necessitated additional mechanisms to ensure network connectivity, such as the exchange of symbolic artefacts

  8. Taxonomic status and paleoecology of Rusingoryx atopocranion (Mammalia, Artiodactyla), an extinct Pleistocene bovid from Rusinga Island, Kenya (United States)

    Faith, J. Tyler; Choiniere, Jonah N.; Tryon, Christian A.; Peppe, Daniel J.; Fox, David L.


    Rusingoryx atopocranion is a poorly known extinct alcelaphine bovid, documented in Pleistocene deposits associated with Middle Stone Age artifacts on Rusinga Island, Kenya. Following its initial description, Rusingoryx was subsumed into Megalotragus, which includes the extinct giant wildebeests, on the basis of its cranial architecture. Renewed investigations of the Pleistocene deposits on Rusinga Island recovered a large sample of Rusingoryx specimens that provide new taxonomic and paleoecological insight. This study (1) reviews the morphological and phylogenetic evidence concerning the taxonomic status of Rusingoryx and (2) evaluates its paleoecology and dietary habits . The morphology and phylogenetic data indicate that Rusingoryx is distinct from Megalotragus; they likely shared a common ancestor in the late Pliocene. Ecomorphology and mesowear analysis point to a specialized grazing adaptation, and its association with arid-adapted ungulates suggests a preference for arid grasslands. The confirmation of Rusingoryx as a valid taxonomic entity, together with the presence of other extinct taxa (including Megalotragus) on Rusinga Island, suggests an increasingly complex pattern of ungulate biogeography and extinctions in the late Quaternary of East Africa. Rusingoryx appears to have been part of an arid-adapted faunal community that potentially persisted in East Africa until the onset of the Holocene.

  9. El Niño revisited: the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the world's largest tuna fisheries. (United States)

    Receveur, A.; Simon, N.; Menkes, C.; Tremblay-Boyer, L.; Senina, I.; Lehodey, P.


    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives global climate on inter-annual scales and impacts the ecosystem structure in the warm-pool and cold-tongue of the Pacific Ocean. During the El Niño phase of ENSO, the warm-pool can stretch from the western equatorial Pacific to the eastern Pacific allowing species associated with the warm-pool to correspondingly spread eastwards. Conversely, during the la Niña phase the warm-pool is pushed to the far western equatorial Pacific by the cold-tongue allowing species associated with this ecosystem to spread westwards. Consequently, ENSO dynamics are likely to be critical for understanding the ecological processes supporting fisheries in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Surface inhabiting tuna, such as skipjack, are thought to track the convergence of the warm-pool and cold-tongue with fishing vessels tracking this tuna behavior. Given the reliance of Pacific Island economies on tuna fisheries, knowing when tunas are more likely to be present in high density in their territorial waters is beneficial for harvest control policies such as effort trading between nations. We use the SEAPODYM model to investigate the response of bigeye and skipjack tuna species to the phases of ENSO. SEAPODYM is an age structured model that integrates fisheries dependent and independent data with environmental data. We analyze the outputs of SEAPODYM using wavelets to assess the impact of environmental and biotic variables on the abundance and distribution of adult and juvenile age classes and to study time series cycle and temporal lags to ENSO. The main result for skipjack is the eastward or westward movement of the biomass pattern which is significantly lagged with the warm pool ENSO displacement. That lag ranges from 8 months for juvenile up to 18 months for adults. Such delayed response, can be traced in the model. Higher temperature in the central Pacific during El Niño leads to better recruitment which leads to lagged increase of juvenile

  10. Paleohydrology and paleoenvironments at Bir Sahara: Pleistocene lithostratigraphy and sedimentology in the southern Egyptian Sahara (United States)

    Hill, Christopher L.; Schild, Romuald


    The Bir Sahara area contains a remarkable record of Middle and Late Pleistocene hydrologic and environmental conditions for Saharan North Africa, based on lithostratigraphic and sedimentologic evidence from basin-fill deposits. Some of the deposits contain Lower Paleolithic (Acheulean) or Middle Paleolithic artifacts that help to constrain their age, since Acheulian artifacts are assigned to the Middle Pleistocene, while Middle Paleolithic artifacts are limited to either the Middle or Late Pleistocene. Locality BS-14 is in the southern part of Bir Sahara, while localities E-88-15, E-88-2, BS-13, and BS-16 are situated in the south-central part of the deflational basin, closer to the present-day water-hole. Lowered groundwater conditions during arid intervals resulted in erosional topographic basins. These deflational basins were later filled with sediments associated with wetter hydrologic conditions. The oldest studied sedimentary sequence in the Bir Sahara depression (BS-14) contains in situ Acheulian artifacts. Acheulian handaxes are found in sands underlying carbonates that are interpreted as evidence of spring-fed pond and marsh environments during a Middle Pleistocene wet interval. At the E-88-15 locality, the stratigraphic sequence documents deposition in a possible perennial pond or small lake that varied in extent and depth and is associated with Middle Paleolithic artifacts. At E-88-12 and BS-13, lateral and vertical variations in the lithofacies of the basin-fill sediments provide additional records of changing hydrologic conditions during the Late Pleistocene. These hydrologic conditions appear to reflect variations in water-table levels related to groundwater recharge and, at times, local rains.


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    Full Text Available The preliminary results of the analisys of fossil vertebrate remains from 19 fissure fillings in the karst network at Monte Tuttavista (Orosei, NMoro are reported. about 80 taxa, among fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals have been recognised.These remains document the evolution of vertebrate assemblages in the Sardinian insular domain, during a time interval apparently spanning the Late Pliocene to Late Pleistocene or Holocene. A succession of at least four populating complexes has been identified which document the vertebrate colonisation phases from the Italian mainland and the following periods of insularity. Indeed, the occurrence of endemic taxa such as the murid Rhagapodemus minor, the primate Macaca cf. M. majori and the caprine Nesogoral, suggest some fissure fillings date to a phase close to the Plio/Pleistocene boundary since these taxa occur at the Sardinian locality Capo Figari I which has been dated to about 1.8 Ma. However, the presence of the "hunting-hyaena" Chasmaporthetes, never reported before in Sardinia, could suggest that the beginning of the vertebrate record of Monte Tuttavista is older, given that this carnivore is documented in European Middle Pliocene-Early Pleistocene localities. The vertebrate assemblages that document the most recent migratory phases in the karst network of Monte Tuttavista are characterised by the occurrence of the endemic megalocerine cervid Praemegaceros cazioti and the arvicolid Tyrrhenicola henseli which are comparable with those occurring in other Late Pleistocene and early Holocene Sardinian sites.

  12. The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles on wave-driven sea-floor sediment mobility along the central California continental margin (United States)

    Storlazzi, Curt D.; Reid, Jane A.


    Ocean surface waves are the dominant temporally and spatially variable process influencing sea floor sediment resuspension along most continental shelves. Wave-induced sediment mobility on the continental shelf and upper continental slope off central California for different phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was modeled using monthly statistics derived from more than 14 years of concurrent hourly oceanographic and meteorologic data as boundary input for the Delft SWAN wave model, gridded sea floor grain-size data from the usSEABED database, and regional bathymetry. Differences as small as 0.5 m in wave height, 1 s in wave period, and 10° in wave direction, in conjunction with the spatially heterogeneous unconsolidated sea-floor sedimentary cover, result in significant changes in the predicted mobility of continental shelf surficial sediment in the study area. El Niño events result in more frequent mobilization on the inner shelf in the summer and winter than during La Niña events and on the outer shelf and upper slope in the winter months, while La Niña events result in more frequent mobilization on the mid-shelf during spring and summer months than during El Niño events. The timing and patterns of seabed mobility are addressed in context of geologic and biologic processes. By understanding the spatial and temporal variability in the disturbance of the sea floor, scientists can better interpret sedimentary patterns and ecosystem structure, while providing managers and planners an understanding of natural impacts when considering the permitting of offshore activities that disturb the sea floor such as trawling, dredging, and the emplacement of sea-floor engineering structures.

  13. Tree-ring analysis of ancient baldcypress trees and subfossil wood (United States)

    Stahle, David W.; Burnette, Dorian J.; Villanueva, Jose; Cerano, Julian; Fye, Falko K.; Griffin, R. Daniel; Cleaveland, Malcolm K.; Stahle, Daniel K.; Edmondson, Jesse R.; Wolff, Kathryn P.


    Ancient baldcypress trees found in wetland and riverine environments have been used to develop a network of exactly dated annual ring-width chronologies extending from the southeastern United States, across Mexico, and into western Guatemala. These chronologies are sensitive to growing season precipitation in spite of frequently flooded site conditions, and have been used to reconstruct moisture levels the southeastern United States and Mexico for over 1000 years. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major influence on the climate reconstructions derived from these baldcypress chronologies, especially in Mexico where some of the most extreme reconstructed droughts occurred during El Nino events. In the Southeast, the ENSO influence on climate and tree growth changes sign from spring to summer, and this change in dynamical forcing is recorded by sub-seasonal chronologies of earlywood and latewood width. Most existing baldcypress chronologies have been extended with tree-ring data from "subfossil" wood recovered from surface and submerged deposits. Well-preserved subfossil logs have also been recovered in quantity from buried deposits of great age, and may permit development of long continuously dated Holocene chronologies and discontinuous "floating" Pleistocene chronologies. The extensive subfossil baldcypress swamp discovered 6 m below the streets of Washington D.C. was overrun by a transgression of the Potomac estuary, possibly during the previous super interglacial (marine OIS 5e), and provides direct evidence for one potential impact of unmitigated anthropogenic warming and sea level rise.

  14. The role of ice sheets in the pleistocene climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.


    Northern hemisphere ice sheets have played an important role in the climatic evolution of the Pleistocene. The characteristic time-scale of icesheet growth has the same order-of-magnitude as that for the orbital insolation variations. The interaction with the solid earth, the importance of the

  15. Impacts of forest to urban land conversion and ENSO phase on water quality of a public water supply reservoir (United States)

    We used coupled watershed and reservoir models to evaluate the impacts of deforestation and ENSO phase on drinking water quality. Source water total organic carbon (TOC) is especially important due to the potential for production of carcinogenic disinfection byproducts (DBPs). The Environmental Flui...

  16. Quantifying the astronomical contribution to Pleistocene climate change: A non-linear, statistical approach (United States)

    Crucifix, Michel; Wilkinson, Richard; Carson, Jake; Preston, Simon; Alemeida, Carlos; Rougier, Jonathan


    The existence of an action of astronomical forcing on the Pleistocene climate is almost undisputed. However, quantifying this action is not straightforward. In particular, the phenomenon of deglaciation is generally interpreted as a manifestation of instability, which is typical of non-linear systems. As a consequence, explaining the Pleistocene climate record as the addition of an astronomical contribution and noise-as often done using harmonic analysis tools-is potentially deceptive. Rather, we advocate a methodology in which non-linear stochastic dynamical systems are calibrated on the Pleistocene climate record. The exercise, though, requires careful statistical reasoning and state-of-the-art techniques. In fact, the problem has been judged to be mathematically 'intractable and unsolved' and some pragmatism is justified. In order to illustrate the methodology we consider one dynamical system that potentially captures four dynamical features of the Pleistocene climate : the existence of a saddle-node bifurcation in at least one of its slow components, a time-scale separation between a slow and a fast component, the action of astronomical forcing, and the existence a stochastic contribution to the system dynamics. This model is obviously not the only possible representation of Pleistocene dynamics, but it encapsulates well enough both our theoretical and empirical knowledge into a very simple form to constitute a valid starting point. The purpose of this poster is to outline the practical challenges in calibrating such a model on paleoclimate observations. Just as in time series analysis, there is no one single and universal test or criteria that would demonstrate the validity of an approach. Several methods exist to calibrate the model and judgement develops by the confrontation of the results of the different methods. In particular, we consider here the Kalman filter variants, the Particle Monte-Carlo Markov Chain, and two other variants of Sequential Monte

  17. Timing of Pleistocene glaciations in the High Atlas, Morocco: New 10Be and 36Cl exposure ages (United States)

    Hughes, Philip D.; Fink, David; Rodés, Ángel; Fenton, Cassandra R.; Fujioka, Toshiyuki


    This paper presents data from 42 new samples yielding Late Pleistocene cosmogenic 10Be and 36Cl exposure ages of moraine boulders across a series of glaciated valleys in the Toubkal Massif (4167 m a.s.l.), High Atlas, Morocco. This represents the first comprehensive Pleistocene glacial chronology in North Africa and one of the largest datasets from the Mediterranean region. The timing of these glacier advances has major implications for understanding the influence of Atlantic depressions on moisture supply to North Africa and the Mediterranean basin during the Pleistocene. The oldest and lowest moraines which span elevations from ∼1900 to 2400 m a.s.l. indicate that the maximum glacier advance occurred from MIS 5 to 3 with a combined mean 10Be and 36Cl age of 50.2 ± 19.5 ka (1 SD; n = 12, 7 outliers). The next moraine units up-valley at higher elevations (∼2200-2600 m a.s.l.) yielded exposure ages close to the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) with a combined mean 10Be and 36Cl age of 22.0 ± 4.9 ka (1 SD; n = 9, 7 outliers). The youngest exposure ages are from moraines that were emplaced during the Younger Dryas with a combined mean 10Be and 36Cl age of 12.3 ± 0.9 ka (1 SD; n = 7, no outliers) and are found in cirques at the highest elevations ranging from ∼2900 to 3300 m a.s.l. From moraines predating the Younger Dryas, a large number of young outliers are spread evenly between 6 and 13 ka suggesting a continuing process of exhumation or repositioning of boulders during the early to mid-Holocene. This attests to active seismic processes and possibly intense erosion during this period.

  18. Interdecadal modulation of the relationship between ENSO, IPO and precipitation: insights from tree rings in Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heinrich, Ingo [School of Resources, Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT (Australia); Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Potsdam (Germany); Weidner, Kathrin [Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Potsdam (Germany); Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Institute for Chemistry and Dynamics of the Geosphere, Juelich (Germany); Helle, Gerhard [Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Potsdam (Germany); Vos, Heinz [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Institute for Chemistry and Dynamics of the Geosphere, Juelich (Germany); Lindesay, Janette; Banks, John C.G. [School of Resources, Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT (Australia)


    Australian climate-proxy reconstructions based on tree rings from tropical and subtropical forests have not been achieved so far due to the rarity of species producing anatomically distinct annual growth rings. Our study identifies the Australian Red Cedar (Toona ciliata) as one of the most promising tree species for tree-ring research in Australasia because this species exhibits distinct annual tree rings, a prerequisite for high quality tropical dendroclimatology. Based on these preliminary studies, we were able, for the first time in subtropical and tropical Australia, to develop a statistically robust, precisely dated and annually resolved chronology back to AD1854. We show that the variability in ring widths of T. ciliata is mainly dependent on annual precipitation. The developed proxy data series contains both high- and low-frequency climate signals which can be associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). A comparison of different data sets (Brisbane precipitation, tree rings, coral luminescence record from the Great Barrier Reef, ENSO and IPO) revealed non-stationary correlation patterns throughout the twentieth century but little instability between the new tree-ring chronology and Brisbane precipitation. (orig.)

  19. Paleohydrology of the southern Great Basin, with special reference to water table fluctuations beneath the Nevada Test Site during the late(?) Pleistocene (United States)

    Winograd, Isaac Judah; Doty, Gene C.


    Knowledge of the magnitude of water-table rise during Pleistocene pluvial climates, and of the resultant shortening of groundwater flow path and reduction in unsaturated zone thickness, is mandatory for a technical evaluation of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) or other arid zone sites as repositories for high-level or transuranic radioactive wastes. The distribution of calcitic veins filling fractures in alluvium, and of tufa deposits between the Ash Meadows spring discharge area and the Nevada Test Site indicates that discharge from the regional Paleozoic carbonate aquifer during the Late( ) Pleistocene pluvial periods may have occurred at an altitude about 50 meters higher than at present and 14 kilometers northeast of Ash Meadows. Use of the underflow equation (relating discharge to transmissivity, aquifer width, and hydraulic gradient), and various assumptions regarding pluvial recharge, transmissivity, and altitude of groundwater base level, suggest possible rises in potentiometric level in the carbonate aquifer of about -90 meters beneath central Frenchman Flat. During Wisconsin time the rise probably did not exceed 30 meters. Water-level rises beneath Frenchman Flat during future pluvials are unlikely to exceed 30 meters and might even be 10 meters lower than modern levels. Neither the cited rise in potentiometric level in the regional carbonate aquifer, nor the shortened flow path during the Late( ) Pleistocene preclude utilization of the NTS as a repository for high-level or transuranic-element radioactive wastes provided other requisite conditions are met as this site. Deep water tables, attendant thick (up to several hundred meter) unsaturated zones, and long groundwater flow paths characterized the region during the Wisconsin Stage and probably throughout the Pleistocene Epoch and are likely to so characterize it during future glacial periods. (USGS)

  20. Pleistocene paleo-groundwater as a pristine fresh water resource in southern Germany--evidence from stable and radiogenic isotopes. (United States)

    van Geldern, Robert; Baier, Alfons; Subert, Hannah L; Kowol, Sigrid; Balk, Laura; Barth, Johannes A C


    Shallow groundwater aquifers are often influenced by anthropogenic contaminants or increased nutrient levels. In contrast, deeper aquifers hold potentially pristine paleo-waters that are not influenced by modern recharge. They thus represent important water resources, but their recharge history is often unknown. In this study groundwater from two aquifers in southern Germany were analyzed for their hydrogen and oxygen stable isotope compositions. One sampling campaign targeted the upper aquifer that is actively recharged by modern precipitation, whereas the second campaign sampled the confined, deep Benkersandstein aquifer. The groundwater samples from both aquifers were compared to the local meteoric water line to investigate sources and conditions of groundwater recharge. In addition, the deep groundwater was dated by tritium and radiocarbon analyses. Stable and radiogenic isotope data indicate that the deep-aquifer groundwater was not part of the hydrological water cycle in the recent human history. The results show that the groundwater is older than ~20,000 years and most likely originates from isotopically depleted melt waters of the Pleistocene ice age. Today, the use of this aquifer is strictly regulated to preserve the pristine water. Clear identification of such non-renewable paleo-waters by means of isotope geochemistry will help local water authorities to enact and justify measures for conservation of these valuable resources for future generations in the context of a sustainable water management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Upper Middle Pleistocene climate and landscape development of Northern Germany (United States)

    Urban, B.


    and the margin of a 286 m deep channel, subglacially eroded during the Elsterian, have recently been investigated by 9 counter flash or cored drillings (Stephan et al., in press). Studies focussed on the uppermost 50 m, made up of a series of approximately 9 m thick fluviatile sediments ("Leck-Folge") with intercalations of organic sand layers and a gyttja band, up to 1.5 m thick. This sequence is overlain by several metres of mainly decalcified groundmoraine, that, itself, is overlain by glaciofluvial and periglacial sediments. The palynological investigations of the gyttja reveal a floral development of interglacial character ("Leck-Thermomer"). Compared to other Middle Pleistocene warm periods in North Germany, correlations of the Leck-Thermomer with the Holsteinian and with the warm periods of the Reinsdorf and Wacken (Dömnitz) interglacials are precluded or appear rather implausible. The Leck-Thermomer is most likely a correlative of the marine oxigen isotope stage 7 c (MIS 7). Stephan, H.-J., Urban, B., Lüttig, G., Menke, B. und M. Sierralta: Palynologische, petrographische und geochronologische Untersuchungen der Leck-Warmzeit (spätes Mittelpleistozän) und ihrer begleitenden Sedimente.- [Palynological, petrographical, and geochronological investigations of deposits of the "Leck-Thermomer" and accompanying sediments].- Geologisches Jahrbuch, in press. Thieme, H., 1997. Lower Paleolithic hunting spears from Germany. Nature 385, 807-810. Urban, B. 1995. Palynological evidence of younger Middle Pleistocene Interglacials (Holsteinian, Reinsdorf, Schöningen) in the Schöningen open cast lignite mine (eastern Lower Saxony/Germany). Mededelingen Rijks Geologische Dienst 52, 175-186. Urban, B. 2006. Interglacial pollen records from Schöningen, north Germany.- In: THE CLIMATE OF PAST INTERGLACIALS. Sirocko, F., Litt, T., Claussen, M., Sanchez-Goni, M.F. (eds.), Springer Verlag; in press.

  2. Direct evidence for human reliance on rainforest resources in late Pleistocene Sri Lanka. (United States)

    Roberts, Patrick; Perera, Nimal; Wedage, Oshan; Deraniyagala, Siran; Perera, Jude; Eregama, Saman; Gledhill, Andrew; Petraglia, Michael D; Lee-Thorp, Julia A


    Human occupation of tropical rainforest habitats is thought to be a mainly Holocene phenomenon. Although archaeological and paleoenvironmental data have hinted at pre-Holocene rainforest foraging, earlier human reliance on rainforest resources has not been shown directly. We applied stable carbon and oxygen isotope analysis to human and faunal tooth enamel from four late Pleistocene-to-Holocene archaeological sites in Sri Lanka. The results show that human foragers relied primarily on rainforest resources from at least ~20,000 years ago, with a distinct preference for semi-open rainforest and rain forest edges. Homo sapiens' relationship with the tropical rainforests of South Asia is therefore long-standing, a conclusion that indicates the time-depth of anthropogenic reliance and influence on these habitats. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  3. ENSO events are induced by the Global Atmosphere Oscillation (United States)

    Serykh, Ilya; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Romanov, Juri


    The large-scale anomalies in the planetary fields of the principal hydro-meteorological characteristics were found to appear prior the beginning and during the main phase of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. The anomalies were interpreted as manifestation of the interannual Global Atmosphere Oscillation (GAO) in dynamics of the modern climatic system. The key feature of the GAO baric structure is a large-scale positive anomaly in tropical area (30N-30S, 50W-170E) surrounded by negative anomaly bending its outer boundaries. Eventually, such reconstruction of the atmospheric pressure field over tropical zone as a consequence of the GAO leads to Walker circulation cell reversal which is immediately followed by the next El Niño process starting. Spatio-temporal structure of the anomalous hydro-meteorological fields developing under impact of the GAO was analyzed using the monthly-mean atmospheric pressure data at sea level (HadSLP2) and near-surface temperature (CRUTEM4) prepared by GB Met Office Hadley Centre for period of 1948-2012, also we used wind data from US NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the same period. Due to the presence of feed-forwards and feedbacks in the climate dynamics, the large-scale anomalies of characteristics appearing after the GAO cause their back effect on the system of interaction of the ocean-atmosphere-land. This is the secondary impact which can be implemented either by direct exchange of properties between the adjacent areas (this is seen most explicitly in the Indo-Pacific Region), or owing to teleconnections between the concrete climatic subsystems in different parts of the Earth. It is apparently that the secondary, or indirect, GAO impact spreading through the system of general atmospheric circulation has a certain phase shift in different areas, which depends first on the distance from the respective climatic anomalies, in particular, from the most intensive of them, appearing in the equatorial

  4. Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China

    KAUST Repository

    Gao, Tao


    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) are well understood to be major drivers for the variability of precipitation extremes over monsoon regions in China (MRC). However, research on monsoon extremes in China and their associations with climate variables is limited. In this study, we examine the space-time variations of extreme precipitation across the MRC, and assess the time-varying influences of the climate drivers using Bayesian dynamic linear regression and their combined nonlinear effects through fitting generalized additive models. Results suggest that the central-east and south China is dominated by less frequent but more intense precipitation. Extreme rainfalls show significant positive trends, coupled with a significant decline of dry spells, indicating an increasing chance of occurrence of flood-induced disasters in the MRC during 1960–2014. Majority of the regional indices display some abrupt shifts during the 1990s. The influences of climate variables on monsoon extremes exhibit distinct interannual or interdecadal variations. IOD, ENSO and AMO have strong impacts on monsoon and extreme precipitation, especially during the 1990s, which is generally consistent with the abrupt shifts in precipitation regimes around this period. Moreover, ENSO mainly affects moderate rainfalls and dry spells, while IOD has a more significant impact on precipitation extremes. These findings could be helpful for improving the forecasting of monsoon extremes in China and the evaluations of climate models.

  5. Earliest Pleistocene hominid cranial remains from Dmanisi, Republic of Georgia: taxonomy, geological setting, and age. (United States)

    Gabunia, L; Vekua, A; Lordkipanidze, D; Swisher, C C; Ferring, R; Justus, A; Nioradze, M; Tvalchrelidze, M; Antón, S C; Bosinski, G; Jöris, O; Lumley, M A; Majsuradze, G; Mouskhelishvili, A


    Archaeological excavations at the site of Dmanisi in the Republic of Georgia have uncovered two partial early Pleistocene hominid crania. The new fossils consist of a relatively complete cranium and a second relatively complete calvaria from the same site and stratigraphic unit that yielded a hominid mandible in 1991. In contrast with the uncertain taxonomic affinity of the mandible, the new fossils are comparable in size and morphology with Homo ergaster from Koobi Fora, Kenya. Paleontological, archaeological, geochronological, and paleomagnetic data from Dmanisi all indicate an earliest Pleistocene age of about 1.7 million years ago, supporting correlation of the new specimens with the Koobi Fora fossils. The Dmanisi fossils, in contrast with Pleistocene hominids from Western Europe and Eastern Asia, show clear African affinity and may represent the species that first migrated out of Africa.

  6. Late Pleistocene and Holocene landscape formation in a gully catchment area in Northern Hesse, Germany

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Döhler, Susanne; Damm, Bodo; Terhorst, Birgit


    the differentiation between Pleistocene and Holocene landforms. Radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence dating are applied to add numerical data to the relative ages of the sediments and landforms. The gully channels are oriented along Pleistocene depressions that are built up of periglacial cover beds...... and intercalated reworked loess. As the gully channels cut through the periglacial cover beds, especially the upper layer, the gully system is of Holocene age. At least two phases of gully erosion are identified in the alluvial fan sediments. The initial gully erosion is dated to the time span between the Late......Permanent gully channels under forest are common geomorphological features in Central European low mountain areas. In the Rehgraben/Fuchslöchergraben gully catchment in Northern Hesse, Germany the Late Pleistocene landscape formation is reconstructed based on periglacial cover beds. In addition...

  7. Contingent Pacific-Atlantic Ocean influence on multicentury wildfire synchrony over western North America. (United States)

    Kitzberger, Thomas; Brown, Peter M; Heyerdahl, Emily K; Swetnam, Thomas W; Veblen, Thomas T


    Widespread synchronous wildfires driven by climatic variation, such as those that swept western North America during 1996, 2000, and 2002, can result in major environmental and societal impacts. Understanding relationships between continental-scale patterns of drought and modes of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) may explain how interannual to multidecadal variability in SSTs drives fire at continental scales. We used local wildfire chronologies reconstructed from fire scars on tree rings across western North America and independent reconstructions of SST developed from tree-ring widths at other sites to examine the relationships of multicentury patterns of climate and fire synchrony. From 33,039 annually resolved fire-scar dates at 238 sites (the largest paleofire record yet assembled), we examined forest fires at regional and subcontinental scales. Since 1550 CE, drought and forest fires covaried across the West, but in a manner contingent on SST modes. During certain phases of ENSO and PDO, fire was synchronous within broad subregions and sometimes asynchronous among those regions. In contrast, fires were most commonly synchronous across the West during warm phases of the AMO. ENSO and PDO were the main drivers of high-frequency variation in fire (interannual to decadal), whereas the AMO conditionally changed the strength and spatial influence of ENSO and PDO on wildfire occurrence at multidecadal scales. A current warming trend in AMO suggests that we may expect an increase in widespread, synchronous fires across the western U.S. in coming decades.

  8. Phylogeography of the common vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus: Marked population structure, Neotropical Pleistocene vicariance and incongruence between nuclear and mtDNA markers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morgante João S


    geographical structure for a mitochondrial marker and no phylogeographic structure for nuclear markers is compatible with a historical scenario of complete isolation of refuge-like populations during the Pleistocene. The results on demographic history on this species is compatible with the Carnaval-Moritz model of Pleistocene vicariance, with demographic expansions in the southern Atlantic forest.

  9. Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model (United States)

    Chen, Dake; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Cane, Mark A.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.


    The skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model in predicting ENSO has recently been improved using a new initialization procedure in which initial conditions are obtained from the coupled model, nudged toward observations of wind stress. The previous procedure involved direct insertion of wind stress observations, ignoring model feedback from ocean to atmosphere. The success of the new scheme is attributed to its explicit consideration of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the associated reduction of "initialization shock" and random noise. The so-called spring predictability barrier is eliminated, suggesting that such a barrier is not intrinsic to the real climate system. Initial attempts to generalize the nudging procedure to include SST were not successful; possible explanations are offered. In all experiments forecast skill is found to be much higher for the 1980s than for the 1970s and 1990s, suggesting decadal variations in predictability.

  10. Influence of packaging information on consumer liking of chocolate milk. (United States)

    Kim, M K; Lopetcharat, K; Drake, M A


    Chocolate milk varies widely in flavor, color, and viscosity, and liking is influenced by these properties. Additionally, package labels (declared fat content) and brand are some of the extrinsic factors that may influence consumer perception. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of packaging labels and brand name on consumer liking and purchase intent of chocolate milk. A consumer acceptance test, conjoint analysis survey, and Kano analysis were conducted. One hundred eight consumers evaluated 7 chocolate milks with and without brand or package information in a 2-d crossover design. A conjoint analysis survey and Kano analysis were conducted after the consumer acceptance test. Results were evaluated by 2-way ANOVA and multivariate analyses. Declared fat content and brand influenced overall liking and purchase intent for chocolate milks to differing degrees. A subsequent conjoint analysis (n=250) revealed that fat content was a driver of choice for purchasing chocolate milk followed by sugar content and brand. Brand name was less important for purchase intent of chocolate milk than fat or sugar content. Among fat content of chocolate milk, 2 and 1% fat level were most appealing to consumers, and reduced sugar and regular sugar were equally important for purchase intent. Kano analysis confirmed that fat content (whole milk, 1, or 2% fat chocolate milk) was an attractive attribute for consumer satisfaction, more so than brand. Organic labeling did not affect the purchase decision of chocolate milk; however, Kano results revealed that having an organic label on a package positively influenced consumer satisfaction. Findings from this study can help chocolate milk producers as well as food marketers better target their product labels with attributes that drive consumer choice of chocolate milk. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Genetic variations in two seahorse species (Hippocampus mohnikei and Hippocampus trimaculatus): evidence for middle Pleistocene population expansion. (United States)

    Zhang, Yanhong; Pham, Nancy Kim; Zhang, Huixian; Lin, Junda; Lin, Qiang


    Population genetic of seahorses is confidently influenced by their species-specific ecological requirements and life-history traits. In the present study, partial sequences of mitochondrial cytochrome b (cytb) and control region (CR) were obtained from 50 Hippocampus mohnikei and 92 H. trimaculatus from four zoogeographical zones. A total of 780 base pairs of cytb gene were sequenced to characterize mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) diversity. The mtDNA marker revealed high haplotype diversity, low nucleotide diversity, and a lack of population structure across both populations of H. mohnikei and H. trimaculatus. A neighbour-joining (NJ) tree of cytb gene sequences showed that H. mohnikei haplotypes formed one cluster. A maximum likelihood (ML) tree of cytb gene sequences showed that H. trimaculatus belonged to one lineage. The star-like pattern median-joining network of cytb and CR markers indicated a previous demographic expansion of H. mohnikei and H. trimaculatus. The cytb and CR data sets exhibited a unimodal mismatch distribution, which may have resulted from population expansion. Mismatch analysis suggested that the expansion was initiated about 276,000 years ago for H. mohnikei and about 230,000 years ago for H. trimaculatus during the middle Pleistocene period. This study indicates a possible signature of genetic variation and population expansion in two seahorses under complex marine environments.

  12. Mineralogical evidence of reduced East Asian summer monsoon rainfall on the Chinese loess plateau during the early Pleistocene interglacials (United States)

    Meng, Xianqiang; Liu, Lianwen; Wang, Xingchen T.; Balsam, William; Chen, Jun; Ji, Junfeng


    The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is an important component of the global climate system. A better understanding of EASM rainfall variability in the past can help constrain climate models and better predict the response of EASM to ongoing global warming. The warm early Pleistocene, a potential analog of future climate, is an important period to study EASM dynamics. However, existing monsoon proxies for reconstruction of EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene fail to disentangle monsoon rainfall changes from temperature variations, complicating the comparison of these monsoon records with climate models. Here, we present three 2.6 million-year-long EASM rainfall records from the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) based on carbonate dissolution, a novel proxy for rainfall intensity. These records show that the interglacial rainfall on the CLP was lower during the early Pleistocene and then gradually increased with global cooling during the middle and late Pleistocene. These results are contrary to previous suggestions that a warmer climate leads to higher monsoon rainfall on tectonic timescales. We propose that the lower interglacial EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene was caused by reduced sea surface temperature gradients across the equatorial Pacific, providing a testable hypothesis for climate models.

  13. Loess deposition and Paleolithic human activity in late Pleistocene in North China (United States)

    Zhang, D.


    Loess is one of the best geological records in the world for reconstruction of paleoenvironment. Loess deposited widely in North China in Quaternary, composing the famous Chinese Loess Plateau where loess sections could be as thick as 200 m. In these thick loess profiles, various archaeological remains including human fossils are found across the Chinese Loess Plateau, which indicates the aeolian loess deposition provides a good preservation environment for archaeological remains or the environment when loess is deposited in North China is favorable for human subsistence. Therefore, well developed loess studies using conventional methods such as grain size, magnetism, carbonate contents, TOC and biological or chemical methods like pollen, phytolith, stable isotopes, could provide important information for archaeologists about site formation process, human subsistence environment and human adaptation behaviors. This study focuses on late Pleistocene environment change and human adaptation in Chinese Western Loess Plateau. Over fifty Paleolithic sites were found buried in loess sections in two small rive catchments about 400 km2 in Chinese Western Loess Plateau in this study. Based on the well loess study in this region, the ages of most of the sites could be easily assumed in the field, which were usually confirmed by later radiocarbon or OSL dating results. Paleoenvironment of human subsistence is reconstructed using pollen, grain size, magnetism studies on the loess profiles producing archaeological remains. The chronological framework built with absolute dating results and loess-paleosol sequence comparison shows that humans first appear in the study area during warm and humid MIS5, may have abandoned the area in cold MIS4, reappeared in cool but humid MIS3 and continued thereafter, even extremely cold and dry LGM. A comprehensive study of 3727 pieces of stone artifacts shows that small-flake-tool industry is dominant through most of the late Pleistocene and

  14. Late Pleistocene Age Model for Site U1460, Perth Basin, SW Australian Shelf: Implications for Leeuwin Current History (United States)

    Christensen, B. A.; Takayanagi, H.; Petrick, B.; Ishiwa, T.; Henderiks, J.; Groeneveld, J.; Mamo, B. L.; De Vleeschouwer, D.; Auer, G.; Deik, H.; Fulthorpe, C.; Gallagher, S. J.; McHugh, C.; Reuning, L.; Yokoyama, Y.


    The Leeuwin Current (LC) exerts an important control on modern Australian climate, but its onset is not well defined. The LC is the only southward flowing eastern boundary current. Driven by a pressure gradient set up in the Indonesian Throughflow, its warm waters support reefs to 29°S. It is seasonally controlled south of the Western Cape. Determination of the onset of the LC was a major objective of IODP Expedition 356. Expedition 356 drilling on the western Australian margin provides an opportunity to explore depositional patterns and timing in the region influenced by the current. Site U1460 was drilled in 214.5 m w.d. (Gallagher et al., 2017). Integrated calcareous nannofossil and planktonic foraminiferal biostratigraphy places the upper 86.5 m firmly within the late Pleistocene. However, the glacial- interglacial stratigraphy is uncertain because of the complexity of this shelfal depositional environment. Here we present a likely late Pleistocene stratigraphy based on integrated geochemical and paleontological datasets. A benthic foraminifer (Uvigerina peregrina) stable isotope record provides the foundation for the age model and the data are supported by SST estimates based on Tex86 and alkenones. Our age model places MIS 16 between 104 and 99 m-CSF-A, followed by an expanded MIS 15 section (99 - 50 m-CSF-A). We correlate the interval from 50 - 5 m-CSF-A with MIS 14 to MIS 8, with the largest magnitude glacial events (MIS 12, MIS 6) either condensed or represented as depositional hiatuses. A Recent 14C date at 0.34 mbsf constrains the interval from 2 - 0.5 m-CSF-A to MIS 4-3, which is in good agreement with the base of common Emiliania huxleyi (0.09 Ma) at 2.13 m-CSF-A. Thus MIS 5 is equivalent to the interval from 5 to 2 m-CSF-A. The expanded MIS 15 section follows a geometric change from slope to prograding shelf. It is associated with a shift to infaunal benthic foraminiferal assemblages, abundant sponge spicules, and a reduction in CaCO3%, suggesting

  15. The role of the intra-daily SST variability in the Indian monsoon variability and monsoon-ENSO-IOD relationships in a global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terray, Pascal; Kamala, Kakitha; Masson, Sebastien; Madec, Gurvan [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, LOCEAN/IPSL, CNRS/IRD/UPMC/MNHN, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Sahai, A.K. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Luo, Jing-Jia; Yamagata, Toshio [RIGC, Yokohama (Japan)


    The impact of diurnal SST coupling and vertical oceanic resolution on the simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and its relationships with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events are studied through the analysis of four integrations of a high resolution Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM), but with different configurations. The only differences between the four integrations are the frequency of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere for the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) parameter (2 vs. 24 h coupling) and/or the vertical oceanic resolution (31 vs. 301 levels) in the CGCM. Although the summer mean tropical climate is reasonably well captured with all the configurations of the CGCM and is not significantly modified by changing the frequency of SST coupling from once to twelve per day, the ISM-ENSO teleconnections are rather poorly simulated in the two simulations in which SST is exchanged only once per day, independently of the vertical oceanic resolution used in the CGCM. Surprisingly, when 2 h SST coupling is implemented in the CGCM, the ISM-ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly, the complex lead-lag relationships between the two phenomena, in which a weak ISM occurs during the developing phase of an El Nino event in the Pacific, are closely resembling the observed ones. Evidence is presented to show that these improvements are related to changes in the characteristics of the model's El Nino which has a more realistic evolution in its developing and decaying phases, a stronger amplitude and a shift to lower frequencies when a 2-hourly SST coupling strategy is implemented without any significant changes in the basic state of the CGCM. As a consequence of these improvements in ENSO variability, the lead relationships between Indo-Pacific SSTs and ISM rainfall resemble the observed patterns more closely, the ISM-ENSO teleconnection is strengthened during boreal summer and ISM rainfall power spectrum

  16. Plio-Pleistocene climate change and geographic heterogeneity in plant diversity-environment relationships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenning, J.-C.; Normand, Signe; Skov, Flemming


    Plio-Pleistocene climate change may have induced geographic heterogeneity in plant species richness-environment relationships in Europe due to greater in situ species survival and speciation rates in southern Europe. We formulate distinct hypotheses on how Plio-Pleistocene climate change may have...... affected richness-topographic heterogeneity and richness-water-energy availability relationships, causing steeper relationships in southern Europe. We investigated these hypotheses using data from Atlas Florae Europaeae on the distribution of 3069 species and geographically weighted regression (GWR). Our...... analyses showed that plant species richness generally increased with topographic heterogeneity (ln-transformed altitudinal range) and actual evapotranspiration (AET). We also found evidence for strong geographic heterogeneity in the species richness-environment relationship, with a greater increase...

  17. External auditory exostoses in the Xuchang and Xujiayao human remains: Patterns and implications among eastern Eurasian Middle and Late Pleistocene crania. (United States)

    Trinkaus, Erik; Wu, Xiu-Jie


    In the context of Middle and Late Pleistocene eastern Eurasian human crania, the external auditory exostoses (EAE) of the late archaic Xuchang 1 and 2 and the Xujiayao 15 early Late Pleistocene human temporal bones are described. Xujiayao 15 has small EAE (Grade 1), Xuchang 1 presents bilateral medium EAE (Grade 2), and Xuchang 2 exhibits bilaterally large EAE (Grade 3), especially on the right side. These cranial remains join the other eastern Eurasian later Pleistocene humans in providing frequencies of 61% (N = 18) and 58% (N = 12) respectively for archaic and early modern human samples. These values are near the upper limits of recent human frequencies, and they imply frequent aquatic exposure among these Pleistocene humans. In addition, the medial extents of the Xuchang 1 and 2 EAE would have impinged on their tympanic membranes, and the large EAE of Xuchang 2 would have resulted in cerumen impaction. Both effects would have produced conductive hearing loss, a serious impairment in a Pleistocene foraging context.

  18. Pleistocene lake level changes in Western Mongolia (United States)

    Borodavko, P. S.


    Global cooling in the Early Pleistocene caused extensive continental glaciation in the northern hemisphere including the arid areas of Central Asia. The reduction of temperatures (particularly summer temperatures) reduced evaporation and strengthened the importance of precipitation. The simultaneity of "lakes periods" (pluvials) and stages of glaciation is established experience confirmed by investigations in the west of North America and Russia. In the Mongolian Great Lakes Depression new evidence for similar conditions is found. The Great Lakes Depression is one of the largest in Central Asia, and is divided into 2 main Lakes basins: Hyargas Lake Basin and Uvs Lake Basin. The basin is 600-650 km in length with a width of 200-250 km in the north and 60-100 km in the south. Total catchment area is about 186600 km2. The elevation of the basin floor is from 1700 m a.s.l. to 760 m a.s.l., decreasing to the north and south-east. The depression extends south-north and is bounded by mountains: Tannu-Ola to the north, Hangai to the east; Gobi Altai to the south and Mongolian Altay to the west. The maximum elevation of the mountains is 4000 m a.s.l. There are some mountains with an elevation between 2000 and 3000 m a.s.l in the lake catchment. These mountains are not glaciated today. The geological record [1] suggests the Great Lakes Depression already existed in the Mesozoic, but assumed its modern form only during the Pliocene-Quaternary when tectonic movements caused the uplift of the surrounding mountains. A phase of tectonic stability occurred during the Late Quaternary. The depression is filled by Quaternary fluvial, aeolian and lacustrine deposits (e.g. sand, pebbles). The Neogene deposits are represented by coloured clay, marl, sand and sandstone [1]. Hyargas Lake is the end base level of erosion of the lake group consisting of the Hara-Us Nur, Dorgon, Hara Nur and Airag lakes. Hyargas is one of the largest lakes in Mongolia, with a water surface of 1,407 km2. The

  19. Nitrogen Isotope Evidence for a Shift in Eastern Beringian Nitrogen Cycle after the Terminal Pleistocene (United States)

    Tahmasebi, F.; Longstaffe, F. J.; Zazula, G.


    The loess deposits of eastern Beringia, a region in North America between 60° and 70°N latitude and bounded by Chukchi Sea to the west and the Mackenzie River to the east, are a magnificent repository of Late Pleistocene megafauna fossils. The stable carbon and nitrogen isotope compositions of these fossils are measured to determine the paleodiet of these animals, and hence the paleoenvironment of this ecosystem during the Quaternary. For this approach to be most successful, however, requires consideration of possible changes in nutrient cycling and hence the carbon and nitrogen isotopic compositions of vegetation in this ecosystem. To test for such a shift following the terminal Pleistocene, we analyzed the stable carbon and nitrogen isotope compositions of modern plants and bone collagen of Arctic ground squirrels from Yukon Territory, and fossil plants and bones recovered from Late Pleistocene fossil Arctic ground squirrel nests. The data for modern samples provided a measure of the isotopic fractionation between ground squirrel bone collagen and their diet. The over-wintering isotopic effect of decay on typical forage grasses was also measured to evaluate its role in determining fossil plant isotopic compositions. The grasses showed only a minor change ( 0-1 ‰) in carbon isotope composition, but a major change ( 2-10 ‰) in nitrogen isotope composition over the 317-day experiment. Based on the modern carbon isotope fractionation between ground squirrel bone collagen and their diet, the modern vegetation carbon isotopic baseline provides a suitable proxy for the Late Pleistocene of eastern Beringia, after accounting for the Suess effect. However, the predicted nitrogen isotope composition of vegetation comprising the diet of fossil ground squirrels remains 2.5 ‰ higher than modern grasslands in this area, even after accounting for possible N-15 enrichment during decay. This result suggests a change in N cycling in this region since the Late Pleistocene.

  20. Climatic implications of correlated upper Pleistocene glacial and fluvial deposits on the Cinca and Gallego rivers, NE Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lewis, Claudia J [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mcdonald, Eric [NON LANL; Sancho, Carlos [NON LANL; Pena, Jose- Luis [NON LANL


    We correlate Upper Pleistocene glacial and fluvial deposits of the Cinca and Gallego River valleys (south central Pyrenees and Ebro basin, Spain) using geomorphic position, luminescence dates, and time-related trends in soil development. The ages obtained from glacial deposits indicate glacial periods at 85 {+-} 5 ka, 64 {+-} 11 ka, and 36 {+-} 3 ka (from glacial till) and 20 {+-} 3 ka (from loess). The fluvial drainage system, fed by glaciers in the headwaters, developed extensive terrace systems in the Cinca River valley at 178 {+-} 21 ka, 97 {+-} 16 ka, 61 {+-} 4 ka, 47 {+-} 4 ka, and 11 {+-} 1 ka, and in the Gallego River valley at 151 {+-} 11 ka, 68 {+-} 7 ka, and 45 {+-} 3 ka. The times of maximum geomorphic activity related to cold phases coincide with Late Pleistocene marine isotope stages and heinrich events. The maximum extent of glaciers during the last glacial occurred at 64 {+-} 11 ka, and the terraces correlated with this glacial phase are the most extensive in both the Cinca (61 {+-} 4 ka) and Gallego (68 {+-} 7 ka) valleys, indicating a strong increase in fluvial discharge and availability of sediments related to the transition to deglaciation. The global Last Glacial Maximum is scarcely represented in the south central Pyrenees owing to dominantly dry conditions at that time. Precipitation must be controlled by the position of the Iberian Peninsula with respect to the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation system. The glacial systems and the associated fluvial dynamic seem sensitive to (1) global climate changes controlled by insolation, (2) North Atlantic thermohaline circulation influenced by freshwater pulses into the North Atlantic, and (3) anomalies in atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic controlling precipitation on the Iberian peninsula. The model of glacial and fluvial evolution during the Late Pleistocene in northern Spain could be extrapolated to other glaciated mountainous areas in southern Europe.

  1. Water table depth fluctuations during ENSO phenomenon on different tropical peat swamp forest land covers in Katingan, Indonesia (United States)

    Rossita, A.; Witono, A.; Darusman, T.; Lestari, D. P.; Risdiyanto, I.


    As it is the main role to maintain hydrological function, peatland has been a limelight since drainage construction for agriculture evolved. Drainage construction will decrease water table depth (WTD) and result in CO2 emission release to the atmosphere. Regardless of human intervention, WTD fluctuations can be affected by seasonal climate and climate variability, foremost El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study aims to determine the correlation between rainfall in Katingan and ENSO index, analyze the pattern of WTD fluctuation of open area and forest area in 2015 (during very strong El Niño) and 2016 (during weak La Niña), calculate the WTD trendline slope during the dry season, and rainfall and WTD correlation. The result showed that open area has a sharper slope of decreasing or increasing WTD when entering the dry, compared to the forest area. Also, it is found that very strong El Niño in 2015 generated a pattern of more extreme decreasing WTD during the dry season than weak La Niña in 2016.

  2. The IOD-ENSO precursory teleconnection over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean: dynamics and long-term trends under global warming (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Hu, Xiaoyue; Xu, Peng; Zhao, Xia; Masumoto, Yukio; Han, Weiqing


    The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations. The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO. In comparison, lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant, suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge. A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%-15% depending on the baroclinic modes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so. Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century, which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.

  3. Low Florida coral calcification rates in the Plio-Pleistocene (United States)

    Brachert, Thomas C.; Reuter, Markus; Krüger, Stefan; Klaus, James S.; Helmle, Kevin; Lough, Janice M.


    temperature window during the Plio-Pleistocene. With regard to the environment of coral growth, stable isotope proxy data from the fossil corals and the overall structure of the ancient shallow marine communities are consistent with a well-mixed, open marine environment similar to the present-day Florida Reef Tract, but variably affected by intermittent upwelling. Upwelling along the platform may explain low rates of reef coral calcification and inorganic cementation, but is too localised to account also for low extension rates of Pliocene z corals throughout the tropical WA region. Low aragonite saturation on a more global scale in response to rapid glacial-interglacial CO2 cyclicity is also a potential factor, but Plio-Pleistocene atmospheric pCO2 is generally believed to have been broadly similar to the present day. Heat stress related to globally high interglacial SST only episodically moderated by intermittent upwelling affecting the Florida platform seems to be another likely reason for low calcification rates. From these observations we suggest some present coral reef systems to be endangered from future ocean warming.

  4. Contrasting biogeochemical responses of ENSO induced upwelling variability in the Humboldt Current System (United States)

    Franco, Ana C.; Gruber, Nicolas; Münnich, Matthias


    The Humboldt Current System (HCS) is one of the most productive ecosystems in the world. This high productivity is supported by a large input of nutrients from the subsurface layers to the surface due to year-round upwelling. However, upwelling also supplies waters with low pH and low aragonite saturation state potentially affecting many organisms, especially those that calcify. The influence, extent and source of upwelled water vary substantially on interannual timescales in association with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, generating natural contrasting responses on the biogeochemistry of this system. Here we analyze these responses using an eddy resolving, basin-scale ocean model that covers the whole Pacific Ocean with high resolution (4 km) on the west coast of South America. We performed a simulation of the last 30 years (hindcast simulation) that allows us to investigate the influence of at least eight El Niño episodes and eight La Niña episodes on productivity variations and changes in oxygen concentration and aragonite saturation state. An absolute change in surface omega aragonite of almost 2 units, as well as an absolute change of the aragonite saturation depth of 200 m result from the change of an El Niño phase to a La Niña phase. This variability is on the same order of magnitude as the projected change in the aragonite saturation state in a centennial timescale. During La Niña events, a lower aragonite saturation state values and reduced oxygen concentration in the surface layer are a direct consequence of enhanced upwelling and increased net primary productivity. The opposite is true during El Niño events, where high values of omega aragonite occur in concordance with extraordinarily low net primary productivity values.

  5. Paleoclimate Records from New Zealand Maar Lakes, Insights into ENSO Teleconnections and Climatic Events in the South (West) Pacific. (United States)

    Shulmeister, J.; Nobes, D. C.; Striewski, B.


    The maar craters of the New Zealand Auckland Volcanic Field (36.5°S, 174.5°E) contain some of the highest resolution late-Quaternary paleoclimate records in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we integrate laminae count results from recent drilling in the Hopua Crater with existing records from the nearby Onepoto Crater (Pepper et al., 2004). In total these records cover many thousands of years between the onset of the last glaciation maximum and the early mid-Holocene. The cores are strongly laminated. Individual laminae in both craters are very fine (sub-mm to mm scale) and form couplets which comprise a darker mineralogenic rich layer and a lighter diatomaceous layer. In places these couplets are annual, and may reflect seasonal algal blooms, but in other sections of the record, notably through the late-Glacial and Holocene, the couplets are deposited at inter-annual time scales. Spectral analyses of couplet thickness counts using a fast Fourier transform (FFT) with 64 to 256-year running windows, and a 50 per cent overlap indicate strong spectral power during the LGM and markedly weaker power during both the deglaciation and early Holocene. In fact there is no spectral strength for most of these periods. Three brief (centennial duration) events punctuate this extended period of low spectral power. These occur at c. 16 ka, c. 14.8 ka and during the early Holocene. They display spectral power in the 5-7yr ENSO window and also at longer time intervals that may be consistent with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We infer the local switching on (or up) of ENSO and PDO teleconnections and suspect these are embedded in circum-polar circulation changes. In addition to these spectral power episodes, there is a general increase in the number of couplet cycles per century between the deglaciation and the early mid-Holocene. This matches observations from Equador and Peru and suggests that trans-Pacific ENSO responses are in phase between western tropical South America and New

  6. Respuestas del clima de América del Sur a las fases de ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available RÉPONSE DU CLIMAT DE L’AMÉRIQUE DU SUD AUX PHASES DE L’ENSO. Les phases hautes de l’ENSO, El Niño (EN, ou basses, Anti-Niño (AN, ont des répercussions diverses sur la pluviométrie de l’Amérique du sud. Pour caractériser ces diverses réponses, les précipitations annuelles ou saisonnières ont été réunies en trois groupes : celui des années EN, celui des années AN et celui des années normales. Les années qui précèdent les étés australs avec EN, les pluies hivernales dans le centre du Chili et dans les Andes de l’ouest de l’Argentine sont renforcées. Certaines années, on observe des sécheresses dans le Nordeste du Brésil au cours de l’été et de l’automne austral qui précèdent le phénomène El Niño dans le Pacifique Tropical. Au cours des mois de décembre à mars des années EN, il pleut abondamment sur la côte ouest de l’Amérique du Sud, depuis la baie de Tumaco jusqu’à Pacasmayo. À l’intérieur, dans la Sierra et l’Altiplano péruano-bolivien, on observe des sécheresses au cours de cette période alors qu’il pleut abondamment au cours de l’été et de l’automne austral dans les basses terres de l’Est de la Bolivie, du Paraguay et du Sud-Est du Brésil. À mesure que l’on s’avance vers l’automne austral, on observe de fortes précipitations dans la partie basse du bassin du Rio de la Plata et du Sud du Brésil. Dans la partie septentrionale et la partie inférieure du bassin amazonien les pluies sont déficitaires au cours des EN, pour devenir excédentaires au cours des AN. La partie intérieure du bassin amazonien réagit de manière inverse : on y observe des excès pluviométriques certaines années EN. Les régions du Venezuela et de la Colombie, sous l’influence climatique des Caraïbes et de l’Atlantique présentent des anomalies négatives de précipitation au cours des EN et une forte pluviosité au cours des AN. Une partie de la Pampa et de la Patagonie ne réagit pas aux

  7. An improved ENSO simulation by representing chlorophyll-induced climate feedback in the NCAR Community Earth System Model. (United States)

    Kang, Xianbiao; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Zhu, Jieshun


    The El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) simulated in the Community Earth System Model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR CESM) is much stronger than in reality. Here, satellite data are used to derive a statistical relationship between interannual variations in oceanic chlorophyll (CHL) and sea surface temperature (SST), which is then incorporated into the CESM to represent oceanic chlorophyll -induced climate feedback in the tropical Pacific. Numerical runs with and without the feedback (referred to as feedback and non-feedback runs) are performed and compared with each other. The ENSO amplitude simulated in the feedback run is more accurate than that in the non-feedback run; quantitatively, the Niño3 SST index is reduced by 35% when the feedback is included. The underlying processes are analyzed and the results show that interannual CHL anomalies exert a systematic modulating effect on the solar radiation penetrating into the subsurface layers, which induces differential heating in the upper ocean that affects vertical mixing and thus SST. The statistical modeling approach proposed in this work offers an effective and economical way for improving climate simulations.

  8. A change in the relationship between tropical central Pacific SST variability and the extratropical atmosphere around 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Jin-Yi; Kim, Seon Tae; Lu, Mong-Ming


    A newly released reanalysis dataset covering the period 1979–2009 is analyzed to show that the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical central Pacific is more closely related to the SST variability in the tropical eastern Pacific before 1990 but more closely related to sea level pressure (SLP) variations associated with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) after 1990. Only during the period after 1990 can the NPO excite large SST variability in the tropical central Pacific. Related to this change, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) SST anomalies tend to spread from the eastern to central tropical Pacific before 1990 in a pattern resembling that associated with the Eastern Pacific (EP) type of ENSO, but are more closely connected to SST variability in the subtropical north Pacific after 1990 with a pattern resembling that of the Central Pacific (CP) type of ENSO. This study concludes that the increased influence of the NPO on the tropical Pacific is a likely reason for the increasing occurrence of the CP type of ENSO since 1990. An analysis of the mean atmospheric circulation during these two periods suggests that the increased NPO influence is associated with a strengthening Hadley circulation after 1990. (letter)

  9. Upper pliocene-lower pleistocene 40Ar/39Ar ages of Pudahuel ignimbrite (Diamante-Maipo volcanic complex), Central Chile (33.50S)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wall, R.M.; Lara, L.E.; Perez de Arce, C


    The Pudahuel Ignimbrite (Wall et al., 1996) is a characteristic pyroclastic flow deposit placed in the Central Depression, within the Maipo, Mapocho and Cachapoal valleys and, in the eastern side of the Andes, at Yaucha and Papagayos rivers as well (Harrington, 1989; Guerstein, 1993). Close to Santiago, Pudahuel Ignimbrite reaches 40 m in thickness (Dragicevic, 1962) which decreces up to 5 m 60 km to the west. The deposit is compounded by ash and lapilli size pumice within a cineritic matrix with shards, crystals and pumice fragments. Facies of both, laminar and turbulent flow regime can be distinguished, the latter prevailing near topographic barriers and on river plain floors. There, traction structures like cross-bedding and important amount of litic clasts are characteristic. Pumices are rhyolitic in composition (ca. 75% SiO 2 ; Stern et al., 1984; Guerstein, 1993) and have few 0.5-2 mm long biotite crystals. Two 40 Ar/ 39 Ar step-heating experiments on biotite from pumices of two localities, Maipu (Santiago) and Bollenar (Melipilla), show plateau ages of 2.3±0.3 Ma (RW-371) and 2.2±0.3 Ma (RW-1009). In both cases, the first step of the experiment indicates loss of Ar from the cristal rims wich was removed for the plateau calculus only in the second case. For the RW-371 sample an inverse isocrone age of 1.4±0.8 Ma (MSWD: 0.98) was obtained. Previously, the Pudahuel Ignimbrite was dated by Stern et al. (1984) in ca. 450 ka using zircon fission-tracks. Although inconsistent with our new ages, these pleistocene age seemed coherent with the discovery of an Antifer (deer) bone by Tavera (1978) within the ignimbrite close to Santiago. Nevertheless, as was apointed by Tavera (1978) himself, the Antifer genus is recognized in Argentina in the Pliocene-Quaternary interval and make possible a review of the well known 'pleistocene' mammal vertebrate associations in Chile. Another consequence of the new possible pliocene ages is that, since the ignimbrite does not show

  10. Paleomagnetism and geochronology of the Pliocene-Pleistocene lavas in Iceland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McDougall, Ian; Wensink, H.

    Potassium-argon dates are reported on five basalt samples from the Pliocene-Pleistocene sequence of lavas in the Jökuldalur area, northeastern Iceland. These dates confirm the correlations previously made with the geological time scale by means of paleomagnetic stratigraphy. The R1 and N2 polarity

  11. Does my brain want what my eyes like? - How food liking and choice influence spatio-temporal brain dynamics of food viewing. (United States)

    Bielser, Marie-Laure; Crézé, Camille; Murray, Micah M; Toepel, Ulrike


    How food valuation and decision-making influence the perception of food is of major interest to better understand food intake behavior and, by extension, body weight management. Our study investigated behavioral responses and spatio-temporal brain dynamics by means of visual evoked potentials (VEPs) in twenty-two normal-weight participants when viewing pairs of food photographs. Participants rated how much they liked each food item (valuation) and subsequently chose between the two alternative food images. Unsurprisingly, strongly liked foods were also chosen most often. Foods were rated faster as strongly liked than as mildly liked or disliked irrespective of whether they were subsequently chosen over an alternative. Moreover, strongly liked foods were subsequently also chosen faster than the less liked alternatives. Response times during valuation and choice were positively correlated, but only when foods were liked; the faster participants rated foods as strongly liked, the faster they were in choosing the food item over an alternative. VEP modulations by the level of liking attributed as well as the subsequent choice were found as early as 135-180ms after food image onset. Analyses of neural source activity patterns over this time interval revealed an interaction between liking and the subsequent choice within the insula, dorsal frontal and superior parietal regions. The neural responses to food viewing were found to be modulated by the attributed level of liking only when foods were chosen, not when they were dismissed for an alternative. Therein, the responses to disliked foods were generally greater than those to foods that were liked more. Moreover, the responses to disliked but chosen foods were greater than responses to disliked foods which were subsequently dismissed for an alternative offer. Our findings show that the spatio-temporal brain dynamics to food viewing are immediately influenced both by how much foods are liked and by choices taken on them

  12. Complete mitochondrial genome and phylogeny of Pleistocene mammoth Mammuthus primigenius.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgeny I Rogaev


    Full Text Available Phylogenetic relationships between the extinct woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius, and the Asian (Elephas maximus and African savanna (Loxodonta africana elephants remain unresolved. Here, we report the sequence of the complete mitochondrial genome (16,842 base pairs of a woolly mammoth extracted from permafrost-preserved remains from the Pleistocene epoch--the oldest mitochondrial genome sequence determined to date. We demonstrate that well-preserved mitochondrial genome fragments, as long as approximately 1,600-1700 base pairs, can be retrieved from pre-Holocene remains of an extinct species. Phylogenetic reconstruction of the Elephantinae clade suggests that M. primigenius and E. maximus are sister species that diverged soon after their common ancestor split from the L. africana lineage. Low nucleotide diversity found between independently determined mitochondrial genomic sequences of woolly mammoths separated geographically and in time suggests that north-eastern Siberia was occupied by a relatively homogeneous population of M. primigenius throughout the late Pleistocene.

  13. Children's liking and wanting of snack products: Influence of shape and flavour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liem Djin G


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Children's food choices are guided by their preferences. However, these preferences may change due to repeated exposure. Methods This study investigated children's (n = 242, 7–12 yrs-old liking and wanting for snacks over 3 weeks of daily consumption. The snacks differed in size (small vs large or flavour (sweet vs sweet-sour. Two conditions were designed: 1 a monotonous group in which children continuously consumed the same snack across the 3 weeks, and 2 a free choice group in which children were allowed to freely choose amongst 3 different flavours of the snack each day during 3 weeks. Results Shape influenced long-term liking, i.e. small shaped snacks remained stable in liking over repeated consumption, whereas large shaped snacks with the same flavour decreased in liking. Mean wanting ratings for all snack products decreased over 3 weeks daily consumption. Flavour did not significantly influence liking and wanting over time. The ability to freely choose amongst different flavours tended to decrease children's liking (p Conclusion Wanting rather than liking was most affected by repeated daily consumption of snack foods over three weeks. In order to increase the likelihood that children will repeatedly eat a food product, smaller sized healthy snacks are preferred to larger sized snacks. Future research should focus on stabilizing wanting over repeated consumption.

  14. Pleistocene Park: the restoration of steppes as a tool to mitigate climate change through albedo effect (United States)

    Zimov, N.; Loranty, M. M.; Edgar, C.; Kropp, H.; Zimov, S. A.


    In the late Pleistocene, the world largest ecosystem was the mammoth steppe. It stretched from the Iberian Peninsula to Canada and from the New Siberian Islands to China. It was a highly productive steppe ecosystem with numerous predators and herbivores that maintained the dominance of grasslands. With the end of the Pleistocene, the climate warmed and humans entered Siberia and the Americas. The introduction of humans as predators in these regions led to the extinction of most large animals, and the further degradation of the steppes. Mosses, shrubs and larch forest soon replaced grasses and herbs. Pleistocene Park is an experiment conducted in the far north of Siberia; its main goal is to revive the extinct steppe ecosystem in the Arctic. This would increase the richness of the northern ecosystems and, bioproductivity, and through a series of ecological mechanisms help to mitigate climate change. To conduct the experiment, was fenced 2000 hectares of land, and continue the ongoing process of introducing animals that either lived on this territory in the past or that can adapt to the modern northern environment. Through grazing, animals slowly transform the vegetation, replacing mosses, shrubs, and trees with grasses and herbs. Here we present the effects grazing animals have on the albedo of the landscape. Several years of year-round measurement of albedo and incoming and reflected radiation conducted in the grasslands in the park indicate substantially higher albedo compared with most modern ecosystems like larch forest and shrublands. Since grasses are lighter than forest, they reflect a higher portion of energy back to space. Results indicate the most dramatic difference in reflected solar radiation is in April and early May. Grasslands covered with snow reflect most of the sun's energy, while dark stems of forests and shrubs absorb that energy and promote warming. We argue that large-scale promotion of highly productive steppes in the Arctic will

  15. The challenge of dating Early Pleistocene fossil teeth by the combined uranium series-electron spin resonance method: the Venta Micena palaeontological site (Orce, Spain)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duval, M.; Falgueres, Ch.; Bahain, J.J.; Shao, Q.; Grun, R.; Aubert, M.; Hellstrom, J.; Dolo, J.M.; Agusti, J.; Martinez-Navarro, B.; Palmqvist, P.; Toro-Moyano, I.


    The palaeontological site of Venta Micena (Orce, Andalusia, Spain) lies in the eastern sector of the Guadix-Baza basin, one of the best documented areas in Europe for Plio-Pleistocene bio-stratigraphy. The combination of bio-chronological and palaeo-magnetic results, combined with the radiometric data obtained for Atapuerca Sima del Elefante, indicated that the Venta Micena stratum was formed between the Jaramillo and Olduvai palaeo-magnetic events, most likely between 1.22 and 1.77 Ma. Five fossil teeth from two outcrops (sites A and B) were selected to assess the potential of combined uranium series-electron spin resonance (US-ESR) dating of Early Pleistocene sites. Although the US-ESR results of the first outcrop showed a large scatter between the three teeth, the mean age of 1.37 ± 0.24 Ma can be considered a reasonable age estimate for Venta Micena. The mean ESR age of 0.62 ± 0.03 Ma obtained for site B seems to be a severe underestimation when compared with the independent age control. This underestimation is attributed to a relative recent U-mobilization event that led to some U-leaching. The results show that any ESR age calculations of old samples are extremely sensitive to variations in the measured 230 Th/ 234 U ratios in dental tissues. Although the results demonstrate that ESR can in principle be applied to Early Pleistocene sites, they also reveal the complexity of dating such old teeth. It is necessary to continue research in several directions, such as study of the behaviour of ESR signals in old teeth and understanding recent U-mobilization processes, to improve the reliability of the combined US-ESR dating method applied to Early Pleistocene times, a period for which the number of available numerical dating techniques is very limited. (authors)

  16. Pleistocene Arid and Wet Climatic Variability: Imprint of Glacial Climate, Tectonics and Oceanographic Events in the Sediments of the se Indian Ocean, Western Australia (United States)

    McHugh, C. M.; Castaneda, J.; Kominz, M. A.; Gallagher, S. J.; Gurnis, M.; Ishiwa, T.; Mamo, B. L.; Henderiks, J.; Christensen, B. A.; Groeneveld, J.; Yokoyama, Y.; Mustaque, S.; Iqbal, F.


    The interaction between the evolving tectonic configuration of the Indo Pacific region as a result of the northward migration of the Australian continent, and its collision with the Banda Arc began in the Late Miocene ( 8 Ma ago). This constriction played an important role in the diversion of the Indonesian Throughflow and initiation of the Leeuwin Current. These events coupled to Pleistocene glaciations left a significant imprint in the sediments offshore western Australia. The International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 356 drilled in shelf depths of the Carnarvon and Perth Basins recovering a thick section of Pleistocene sediment from Sites U1461 (440 m thick) and U1460 (306 m), respectively. Analyses of the lithology (logs, grain size), chemistry (X-ray elemental analyses) and an initial age model constructed from biostratigraphy and radiocarbon ages were interpreted within the framework of multichannel seismic profiles. Radiocarbon ages provide control for MIS 1-4, and the identification of glacial cycles is based on shipboard biostratigraphy best developed for Site U1460. Arid and high productivity signals are linked with glacial stages. Wet conditions are associated with river discharge, terrigenous sediments and linked with interglacial stages. Except for one very pronounced interval the productivity signal during interglacials is low. High productivity during glacial stages is related to upwelling linked to the southward flowing Leeuwin Current. Comparison of the northernmost (U1461) with southernmost (U1460) sites reveals a strong arid and wet climatic variability beginning in the Pleistocene. This variability is most pronounced in the late Pleistocene post 0.8-1.0 Ma and can be correlated with glacial-interglacial cycles, especially in the more humid southern Site that was closer to the Subantarctic Front and influenced by the Westerlies. In Site U1461 we recovered the 135m thick Gorgon slide. Its occurrence at 1 Ma coincides with a rapid tectonic

  17. Paleoescatology in the sopas formation (Upper Pleistocene) form Uruguay, paleobilogic focus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verde, M.; Ubilla, M.; Soloviy, J.


    Continental tetrapod coprolites are reported for the first time for Uruguay, these remains come from the Sopas Formation (Upper Pleistocene). They are assigned to carnivore mammals based on morphology and inclusions of micrommmal remains besides of other attributes.(author)

  18. True single-molecule DNA sequencing of a pleistocene horse bone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orlando, Ludovic Antoine Alexandre; Ginolhac, Aurélien; Raghavan, Maanasa


    -preserved Pleistocene horse bone using the Helicos HeliScope and Illumina GAIIx platforms, respectively. We find that the percentage of endogenous DNA sequences derived from the horse is higher among the Helicos data than Illumina data. This result indicates that the molecular biology tools used to generate sequencing...

  19. Vertebrates from the Middle Pleistocene locality Lysa Gora 1 in Ukraine

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rekovets, L.; Čermák, Stanislav; Kovalchuk, O.; Prisyazhniuk, V.; Nowakowski, D.

    326/327, 1 April (2014), s. 481-491 ISSN 1040-6182 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30130516 Institutional support: RVO:67985831 Keywords : Vertebrates * Pleistocene * paleoecology * taxonomy * phylogeny Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 2.062, year: 2014

  20. Attempt at ESR dating of tooth enamel of French middle pleistocene sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bahain, J.J.; Sarcia, M.N.; Falgueres, C.; Yokoyama, Y.


    Tooth enamel samples from four important French middle Pleistocene sites are analyzed by the ESR method. ESR ages were calculated using uranium uptake mathematical models and compared with U-series results. (author)

  1. Paleosoils and pedogenic calcretes formations in Fray Bentos (Oligocene - early miocene) Raigon (late pliocene and middle pleistocene) and Libertad (early - middle pleistocene)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tofalo, O.; Morras, H.; Sanchez-Bettucci, L.


    The Fray Bentos formation is composed by loessic deposits based on paleosoils and pedogenic calcretes (Oligocene - early miocene). In this deposits are tubular and lamellar formations which would have been formed in arid climates.The fluvial origen of Raigon Formation, (late pliocene and middle pleistocene) presents a paleosoil roof which is generated under a subhumid climate.The Libertad Formation during the glacial intervals consisted of loess deposits

  2. Sub-seasonal prediction of significant wave heights over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans, part II: The impact of ENSO and MJO (United States)

    Shukla, Ravi P.; Kinter, James L.; Shin, Chul-Su


    This study evaluates the effect of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events on 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) at 3 weeks lead time (Wk34) over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model is forced with daily 10m-winds predicted by a modified version of CFSv2 that is initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at Wk34 lead-time is found over portions of the domain, including the central western Pacific, South China Sea (SCS), Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southern Indian Ocean (IO) in January cases, and over BOB, equatorial western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and southern IO in May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed composite SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central IO where westerly wind anomalies act on an easterly mean state, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean (SO) where westerly wind anomalies act on a westerly mean state. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA at Wk34 lead-time in May over the BOB and SCS in composites of combined phases-2-3 and phases-6-7 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of ENSO and MJO. Based on spatial and temporal correlations, the spatial patterns of SWHA in the model at Wk34 in both January and May are in good agreement with the observations over the equatorial western Pacific, equatorial and southern IO, and SO.

  3. Mandibular molar root morphology in Neanderthals and Late Pleistocene and recent Homo sapiens. (United States)

    Kupczik, Kornelius; Hublin, Jean-Jacques


    Neanderthals have a distinctive suite of dental features, including large anterior crown and root dimensions and molars with enlarged pulp cavities. Yet, there is little known about variation in molar root morphology in Neanderthals and other recent and fossil members of Homo. Here, we provide the first comprehensive metric analysis of permanent mandibular molar root morphology in Middle and Late Pleistocene Homo neanderthalensis, and Late Pleistocene (Aterian) and recent Homo sapiens. We specifically address the question of whether root form can be used to distinguish between these groups and assess whether any variation in root form can be related to differences in tooth function. We apply a microtomographic imaging approach to visualise and quantify the external and internal dental morphologies of both isolated molars and molars embedded in the mandible (n=127). Univariate and multivariate analyses reveal both similarities (root length and pulp volume) and differences (occurrence of pyramidal roots and dental tissue volume proportion) in molar root morphology among penecontemporaneous Neanderthals and Aterian H. sapiens. In contrast, the molars of recent H. sapiens are markedly smaller than both Pleistocene H. sapiens and Neanderthals, but share with the former the dentine volume reduction and a smaller root-to-crown volume compared with Neanderthals. Furthermore, we found the first molar to have the largest average root surface area in recent H. sapiens and Neanderthals, although in the latter the difference between M(1) and M(2) is small. In contrast, Aterian H. sapiens root surface areas peak at M(2). Since root surface area is linked to masticatory function, this suggests a distinct occlusal loading regime in Neanderthals compared with both recent and Pleistocene H. sapiens. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Multi-year assimilation of IASI and MLS ozone retrievals: variability of tropospheric ozone over the tropics in response to ENSO (United States)

    Peiro, Hélène; Emili, Emanuele; Cariolle, Daniel; Barret, Brice; Le Flochmoën, Eric


    The Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Instrument (IASI) allows global coverage with very high spatial resolution and its measurements are promising for long-term ozone monitoring. In this study, Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) O3 profiles and IASI O3 partial columns (1013.25-345 hPa) are assimilated in a chemistry transport model to produce 6-hourly analyses of tropospheric ozone for 6 years (2008-2013). We have compared and evaluated the IASI-MLS analysis and the MLS analysis to assess the added value of IASI measurements. The global chemical transport model MOCAGE (MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle) has been used with a linear ozone chemistry scheme and meteorological forcing fields from ERA-Interim (ECMWF global reanalysis) with a horizontal resolution of 2° × 2° and 60 vertical levels. The MLS and IASI O3 retrievals have been assimilated with a 4-D variational algorithm to constrain stratospheric and tropospheric ozone respectively. The ozone analyses are validated against ozone soundings and tropospheric column ozone (TCO) from the OMI-MLS residual method. In addition, an Ozone ENSO Index (OEI) is computed from the analysis to validate the TCO variability during the ENSO events. We show that the assimilation of IASI reproduces the variability of tropospheric ozone well during the period under study. The variability deduced from the IASI-MLS analysis and the OMI-MLS measurements are similar for the period of study. The IASI-MLS analysis can reproduce the extreme oscillation of tropospheric ozone caused by ENSO events over the tropical Pacific Ocean, although a correction is required to reduce a constant bias present in the IASI-MLS analysis.

  5. Verification of an ENSO-Based Long-Range Prediction of Anomalous Weather Conditions During the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympics (United States)

    Mo, Ruping; Joe, Paul I.; Doyle, Chris; Whitfield, Paul H.


    A brief review of the anomalous weather conditions during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games and the efforts to predict these anomalies based on some preceding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals are presented. It is shown that the Olympic Games were held under extraordinarily warm conditions in February 2010, with monthly mean temperature anomalies of +2.2 °C in Vancouver and +2.8 °C in Whistler, ranking respectively as the highest and the second highest in the past 30 years (1981-2010). The warm conditions continued, but became less anomalous, in March 2010 for the Paralympic Games. While the precipitation amounts in the area remained near normal through this winter, the lack of snow due to warm conditions created numerous media headlines and practical problems for the alpine competitions. A statistical model was developed on the premise that February and March temperatures in the Vancouver area could be predicted using an ENSO signal with considerable lead time. This model successfully predicted the warmer-than-normal, lower-snowfall conditions for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics.

  6. Early Pleistocene archaeological occurrences at the Feiliang site, and the archaeology of human origins in the Nihewan Basin, North China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuwen Pei

    Full Text Available The Early Pleistocene archaeological evidence from the fluvio-lacustrine sequence of the Nihewan Basin (North China offers an excellent opportunity to explore early human evolution and behavior in a temperate setting in East Asia, following the earliest 'Out of Africa'. Here we present the first comprehensive study of the Feiliang (FL site, with emphasis on the archaeological sequence, site integrity, and stone artifact assemblages. Magnetostratigraphic dating results show that early humans occupied the site ca. 1.2 Ma. Archaeological deposits were buried rapidly in primary context within shallow lake margin deposits, with only minor post-depositional disturbance from relatively low energy hydraulic forces. The FL lithic assemblage is characterized by a core and flake, Oldowan-like or Mode 1 technology, with a low degree of standardization, expedient knapping techniques, and casually retouched flakes. The bone assemblage suggests that hominin occupation of the FL site was in an open habitat of temperate grassland with areas of steppe and water. The main features of the FL assemblage are discussed in the context of the early Pleistocene archaeology of Nihewan, for which an assessment of current and future research is also presented.

  7. Implications of the avian fauna for paleoecology in the Early Pleistocene of the Iberian Peninsula. (United States)

    Sánchez-Marco, A


    The aim of this paper is to reconstruct the landscape and climate during the formation of the Lower Pleistocene TD6 layer at Gran Dolina, Atapuerca. Habitat preferences and phenetic behavioural spectra of fossil birds are reconstructed using comparisons of fossil bird assemblages with modern avian communities. This method is based upon the phenology (seasonality and breeding status) of each species for both the fossil association and modern communities. The results indicate that more open country and wetter conditions prevailed during the early Pleistocene than were previously inferred. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

  8. Tropical cyclone genesis in the Southern Hemisphere and its relationship with the ENSO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuleshov, Y.; Qi, L. [Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia). National Climate Centre; Chane Ming, F.; Chouaibou, I.; Hoareau, C. [UMR CNRS-Meteo-France-Univ. de la Reunion, La Reunion (France). Lab. de l' Atmosphere et des Cyclones; Roux, F. [Paul Sabatier Univ., CNRS, Toulouse (France). Lab. d' Aerologie


    Tropical cyclogenesis climatology over the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans has been developed using a new tropical cyclone (TC) archive for the Southern Hemisphere, and changes in geographical distribution of areas favourable for TC genesis related to changes in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases have been investigated. To explain these changes, large-scale environmental variables which influence TC genesis and development such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), relative humidity in mid-troposphere, vertical wind shear and lower tropospheric vorticity have been examined. In the South Indian Ocean, reduction of TC genesis in the western part of the basin and its increase in the eastern part as well as displacement of the area favourable for TC genesis further away from the equator during La Nina events compared to El Nino events can be explained by changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity across the basin as primary contributors; positive anomalies of SSTs observed during La Nina seasons in the eastern part of the basin additionally contribute to enhanced cyclogenesis near the Western Australia. In the South Pacific Ocean, changes in geographical distribution of relative humidity and vorticity appear to be the key large-scale environmental factors responsible for enhanced TC genesis in the eastern (western) part of the basin as well as for the northeast (southwest) shift of points of cyclogenesis during El Nino (La Nina) events, with vertical wind shear and SSTs as additional contributing large-scale environmental variables. (orig.)

  9. Pleistocene Indian Monsoon Rainfall Variability (United States)

    Yirgaw, D. G.; Hathorne, E. C.; Giosan, L.; Collett, T. S.; Sijingeo, A. V.; Nath, B. N.; Frank, M.


    The past variability of the Indian Monsoon is mostly known from records of wind strength over the Arabian Sea. Here we investigate proxies for fresh water input and runoff in a region of strong monsoon precipitation that is a major moisture source for the east Asian Monsoon. A sediment core obtained by the IODP vessel JOIDES Resolution and a gravity core from the Alcock Seamount complex in the Andaman Sea are used to examine the past monsoon variability on the Indian sub-continent and directly over the ocean. The current dataset covers the last glacial and deglacial but will eventually provide a Pleistocene record. We utilise the ecological habitats of G. sacculifer and N. dutertrei to investigate the freshwater-induced stratification with paired Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses to estimate seawater δ18O (δ18Osw). During the last 60 kyrs, Ba/Ca ratios and δ18Osw values generally agree well between the two cores and suggest the weakest surface runoff and monsoon during the LGM and strongest monsoon during the Holocene. The difference in δ18O between the species, interpreted as a proxy for upper ocean stratification, implies stratification developed around 37 ka and remained relatively constant during the LGM, deglacial and Holocene. To investigate monsoon variability for intervals in the past, single shell Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses have been conducted. Mg/Ca ratios from individual shells of N. dutertrei suggest relatively small changes in temperature. However, individual N. dutertrei δ18O differ greatly between the mid-Holocene and samples from the LGM and a nearby core top. The mid-Holocene individuals have a greater range and large skew towards negative values indicating greater fresh water influence.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available The interdisciplinary study of two deep cores drilled in Pleistocene basin fill at Northern margin of Po Plain, has been integrated with qualitative and quantitative malacological analysis. The potential of quantitative malacological analysis, to refine results obtained from interdisciplinary studies, is here highlighted. The evolution of malacological assemblages has been recorded and correlated to the general regressive trend recognized all over the Po Basin. Lower Pleistocene marine deposits, found at core base (Jaramillo Subchron and older, were gradually replaced by transitional and continental deposits since latest early Pleistocene. Area was eventually covered by continental conglomerate deposits (“Ceppo” facies during middle-late Pleistocene. Within this general trend, regional significance of a major unconformity (“r” surface, related to onset of Pleistocene glacial cycle, is confirmed. However, as evidenced by malacology, the roughly synchronous onset of coarse clastic progradation did not result in a synchronous shift from marine to transitional and continental settings all over the study area, as an effect of inherited topography and other local factors. During marine sedimentation, fossil record allowed us to recognize a transgressive event, reliably correlated to Marine Isotope Stage 35. 

  11. How Far into Europe Did Pikas (Lagomorpha: Ochotonidae) Go during the Pleistocene? New Evidence from Central Iberia (United States)

    Laplana, César; Sevilla, Paloma; Arsuaga, Juan Luis; Arriaza, Mari Carmen; Baquedano, Enrique; Pérez-González, Alfredo


    This paper reports the first find of pika remains in the Iberian Peninsula, at a site in central Spain. A fragmented mandible of Ochotona cf. pusilla was unearthed from Layer 3 (deposited some 63.4±5.5 ka ago as determined by thermoluminescence) of the Buena Pinta Cave. This record establishes new limits for the genus geographic distribution during the Pleistocene, shifting the previous edge of its known range southwest by some 500 km. It also supports the idea that, even though Europe’s alpine mountain ranges represented a barrier that prevented the dispersal into the south to this and other taxa of small mammals from central and eastern Europe, they were crossed or circumvented at the coldest time intervals of the end of the Middle Pleistocene and of the Late Pleistocene. During those periods both the reduction of the forest cover and the emersion of large areas of the continental shelf due to the drop of the sea level probably provided these species a way to surpass this barrier. The pika mandible was found accompanying the remains of other small mammals adapted to cold climates, indicating the presence of steppe environments in central Iberia during the Late Pleistocene. PMID:26535576

  12. Forests of the tropical eastern Andean flank during the middle Pleistocene

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cárdenas, M.L.; Gosling, W.D.; Pennington, R.T.; Poole, I.; Sherlock, S.C.; Mothes, P.


    Inter-bedded volcanic and organic sediments from Erazo (Ecuador) indicate the presence of four different forest assemblages on the eastern Andean flank during the middle Pleistocene. Radiometric dates (40Ar-39Ar) obtained from the volcanic ash indicate that deposition occurred between 620,000 and

  13. Terminal Pleistocene Alaskan genome reveals first founding population of Native Americans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moreno-Mayar, J Víctor; Potter, Ben A; Vinner, Lasse


    Despite broad agreement that the Americas were initially populated via Beringia, the land bridge that connected far northeast Asia with northwestern North America during the Pleistocene epoch, when and how the peopling of the Americas occurred remains unresolved. Analyses of human remains from La...

  14. Genetic variations in two seahorse species (Hippocampus mohnikei and Hippocampus trimaculatus: evidence for middle Pleistocene population expansion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanhong Zhang

    Full Text Available Population genetic of seahorses is confidently influenced by their species-specific ecological requirements and life-history traits. In the present study, partial sequences of mitochondrial cytochrome b (cytb and control region (CR were obtained from 50 Hippocampus mohnikei and 92 H. trimaculatus from four zoogeographical zones. A total of 780 base pairs of cytb gene were sequenced to characterize mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA diversity. The mtDNA marker revealed high haplotype diversity, low nucleotide diversity, and a lack of population structure across both populations of H. mohnikei and H. trimaculatus. A neighbour-joining (NJ tree of cytb gene sequences showed that H. mohnikei haplotypes formed one cluster. A maximum likelihood (ML tree of cytb gene sequences showed that H. trimaculatus belonged to one lineage. The star-like pattern median-joining network of cytb and CR markers indicated a previous demographic expansion of H. mohnikei and H. trimaculatus. The cytb and CR data sets exhibited a unimodal mismatch distribution, which may have resulted from population expansion. Mismatch analysis suggested that the expansion was initiated about 276,000 years ago for H. mohnikei and about 230,000 years ago for H. trimaculatus during the middle Pleistocene period. This study indicates a possible signature of genetic variation and population expansion in two seahorses under complex marine environments.

  15. Signatures of Late Pleistocene fluvial incision in an Alpine landscape (United States)

    Leith, Kerry; Fox, Matthew; Moore, Jeffrey R.


    Uncertainty regarding the relative efficacy of fluvial and glacial erosion has hindered attempts to quantitatively analyse the Pleistocene evolution of alpine landscapes. Here we show that the morphology of major tributaries of the Rhone River, Switzerland, is consistent with that predicted for a landscape shaped primarily by multiple phases of fluvial incision following a period of intense glacial erosion after the mid-Pleistocene transition (∼0.7 Ma). This is despite major ice sheets reoccupying the region during cold intervals since the mid-Pleistocene. We use high-resolution LiDAR data to identify a series of convex reaches within the long-profiles of 18 tributary channels. We propose these reaches represent knickpoints, which developed as regional uplift raised tributary bedrock channels above the local fluvial baselevel during glacial intervals, and migrated upstream as the fluvial system was re-established during interglacial periods. Using a combination of integral long-profile analysis and stream-power modelling, we find that the locations of ∼80% of knickpoints in our study region are consistent with that predicted for a fluvial origin, while the mean residual error over ∼100 km of modelled channels is just 26.3 m. Breaks in cross-valley profiles project toward the elevation of former end-of-interglacial channel elevations, supporting our model results. Calculated long-term uplift rates are within ∼15% of present-day measurements, while modelled rates of bedrock incision range from ∼1 mm/yr for low gradient reaches between knickpoints to ∼6-10 mm/yr close to retreating knickpoints, typical of observed rates in alpine settings. Together, our results reveal approximately 800 m of regional uplift, river incision, and hillslope erosion in the lower half of each tributary catchment since 0.7 Ma.

  16. Human talus bones from the Middle Pleistocene site of Sima de los Huesos (Sierra de Atapuerca, Burgos, Spain). (United States)

    Pablos, Adrián; Martínez, Ignacio; Lorenzo, Carlos; Gracia, Ana; Sala, Nohemi; Arsuaga, Juan Luis


    Here we present and describe comparatively 25 talus bones from the Middle Pleistocene site of the Sima de los Huesos (SH) (Sierra de Atapuerca, Burgos, Spain). These tali belong to 14 individuals (11 adult and three immature). Although variation among Middle and Late Pleistocene tali tends to be subtle, this study has identified unique morphological characteristics of the SH tali. They are vertically shorter than those of Late Pleistocene Homo sapiens, and show a shorter head and a broader lateral malleolar facet than all of the samples. Moreover, a few shared characters with Neanderthals are consistent with the hypothesis that the SH population and Neanderthals are sister groups. These shared characters are a broad lateral malleolar facet, a trochlear height intermediate between modern humans and Late Pleistocene H. sapiens, and a short middle calcaneal facet. It has been possible to propose sex assignment for the SH tali based on their size. Stature estimates based on these fossils give a mean stature of 174.4 cm for males and 161.9 cm for females, similar to that obtained based on the long bones from this same site. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Expansion of the known distribution of Asiatic mouflon (Ovis orientalis) in the Late Pleistocene of the Southern Levant (United States)

    Yeomans, Lisa; Martin, Louise; Richter, Tobias


    Wild sheep (Ovis orientalis) bones recovered from the Natufian site of Shubayqa 1 demonstrate a wider distribution of mouflon in the Late Pleistocene of the Southern Levant than previously known. Early Epipalaeolithic sites are common in the limestone steppe region of eastern Jordan but have yielded only a handful of caprine bones that cannot be identified to species level and few faunal remains from excavated Late Epipalaeolithic sites have been reported. Analysis of animal bone from Shubayqa 1 suggests a significant population of wild sheep could be found concentrated in the basalt desert environment of eastern Jordan during the Late Pleistocene, especially where higher rainfall over the Jebel Druze provided more water. A population of wild sheep was still present in the Pre-Pottery Neolithic A when the nearby site of Shubayqa 6 was occupied. Hunting of diverse, locally available resources including wild sheep at the end of the Pleistocene illustrates the flexible and adaptive exploitation strategies that hunter-forager groups engaged in. This provides further evidence to the increasing body of data showing the creative and opportunistic approach of terminal Pleistocene groups allowing continued occupation even in more marginal environments in a period of environmental change.

  18. Simulations for Making On-farm Decisions in Relation to ENSO in Semi-arid Areas, South Africa (United States)

    Tesfuhuney, W. A.; Crespo, O. O.; Walker, S. S.; Steyn, S. A.


    The study was employed to investigate and improve on-farm decision making on planting dates and fertilization by relating simulated yield and seasonal outlook information. The Agricultural Production Systems SIMulator model (APSIM) was used to explore ENSO/SOI effects for small-scale farmers to represent weather conditions and soil forms of semi-arid areas of Bothaville, Bethlehem and Bloemfontein regions in South Africa. The relationships of rainfall and SOI anomalies indicate a positive correlation, signifies ENSO/SOI as seasonal outlooks for study areas. Model evaluation results showed higher degree of bias (RMSEs/RMSE value of 0.88-0.98). The D-index of agreement in the range 0.61-0.71 indicate the ability of the APSIM-Maize model is an adequate tool in evaluating relative changes in maize yield in relation to various management practices and seasonal variations. During rainy, La Niño years (SOI > +5), highest simulated yields were found for Bethlehem in November with addition of 100 - 150 kg ha-1 N fertilization and up to 50 kg ha-1 for both Bothaville and Bloemfontein. With respect to various levels of fertilization, the dry El Niño years (SOI risk for dryland farming in semi-arid regions. Key word: Semi-arid; APSIM; SOI; El Niño / La Niña; On-farm Decisions

  19. Upper Pleistocene Human Dispersals out of Africa: A Review of the Current State of the Debate (United States)

    Beyin, Amanuel


    Although there is a general consensus on African origin of early modern humans, there is disagreement about how and when they dispersed to Eurasia. This paper reviews genetic and Middle Stone Age/Middle Paleolithic archaeological literature from northeast Africa, Arabia, and the Levant to assess the timing and geographic backgrounds of Upper Pleistocene human colonization of Eurasia. At the center of the discussion lies the question of whether eastern Africa alone was the source of Upper Pleistocene human dispersals into Eurasia or were there other loci of human expansions outside of Africa? The reviewed literature hints at two modes of early modern human colonization of Eurasia in the Upper Pleistocene: (i) from multiple Homo sapiens source populations that had entered Arabia, South Asia, and the Levant prior to and soon after the onset of the Last Interglacial (MIS-5), (ii) from a rapid dispersal out of East Africa via the Southern Route (across the Red Sea basin), dating to ~74–60 kya. PMID:21716744

  20. Ocean circulation in the southern Benguela region from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene: tracking Agulhas leakage into the SE Atlantic (United States)

    Petrick, Benjamin; McClymont, Erin; Felder, Sojna; Leng, Melanie


    The transition from the warmth of the middle Pliocene to the large amplitude, 100 kyr glacial-interglacial cycles of the late Pleistocene provides a way to understand the forcings and impacts of regional and global climate change. Here, we investigate changes in ocean circulation over the period from 3.5 Ma to present using a marine sediment core, ODP Site 1087 (31o28'S, 15o19'E, 1374m water depth). ODP 1087 is located in the South-east Atlantic Ocean, outside the Benguela upwelling region. Its location allows investigation of the history of the heat and salt transfer to the Atlantic Ocean from the Indian Ocean ("Agulhas leakage"), which plays an important part in the global thermohaline circulation. It is not known how this transfer reacted to generally warmer global temperatures during the mid-Pliocene, nor to the transition to a globally cooler climate in the early Pleistocene. Our approach is to apply several organic geochemistry proxies and foraminiferal analyses to reconstruct the history of ODP 1087. These include the U37K' index to reconstruct sea surface temperatures, pigment analysis for understanding productivity changes, and foraminifera assemblage analysis to detect the presence of different water masses at the site. We have identified changes in SSTs and biological productivity that we argue to reflect shifts in the position of the Benguela upwelling cells, and a changing influence of Agulhas leakage. Our new data reveal a different organization in the Southeast Atlantic. It shows that during the Pliocene ODP 1087 was dominated by Benguela upwelling which had shifted south. We find no evidence for Agulhas leakage during the mid Pliocene, which could mean that Agulhas Leakage was severely reduced during the mid Pliocene. The implications of these results for understanding Plio-Pleistocene climate changes will be explored here.

  1. Potential role of resurfacing Subtropical Underwater in ENSO evolution (United States)

    Qu, T.; Chi, J.


    Results from a model of the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) have shown that the resurfacing of high salinity Subtropical Underwater contributes to the sea surface salinity variability in the equatorial Pacific. On interannual time scale, this contribution can account for as much as 25% of the surface freshwater flux anomalies and is believed to play a role in ENSO evolution. Having these results in mind, this study investigates the surface salinity budget and its primary controls in the equatorial Pacific using ECCO output for the period 1993-2016. Particular attention is paid to 2014/2015 and 2015/2016. Preliminary analyses of the model results suggest that enhanced subsurface processes and in particular enhanced entrainment of Subtropical Underwater are primarily responsible for the positive sea surface salinity anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during 2014/2015, which represents an opposite phase of El Niño. These subsurface processes weakened during 2015/2016, diretly contributing to the development of the 2015/2016 El Niño. The mechanisms controlling these subsurface processes are discussed.

  2. Evidence for a possible modern and mid-Holocene solar influence on climate from Lake Titicaca, South America