Interactions variations climatiques – insectes ravageurs et ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... calamistis et de E. saccharina. De plus l'analyse de la perception des agriculteurs indique l'apparition de «nouveaux» ravageurs tels que les termites, le criquet puant Zonocerus variegatus et une recrudescence des ravageurs de stock. Mots clés: Changements climatiques, Sesamia calamistis, maïs, générations, termites.

Recherche sur l'adaptation aux changements climatiques

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Corey Piccioni

consortiums travaillent dans des zones vulnérables aux changements climatiques en Afrique et en Asie, notamment dans les bassins hydrographiques alimentés .... Le projet de recherche Pathways to Resilience in Semi-Arid Economies (PRISE) vise à réduire les risques et à opti- miser les possibilités de développement ...

Cognitive Architecture and the Epistemic Gap: Defending Physicalism without Phenomenal Concepts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fazekas, Peter

2011-01-01

The novel approach presented in this paper accounts for the occurrence of the epistemic gap and defends physicalism against anti-physicalist arguments without relying on so-called phenomenal concepts. Instead of concentrating on conceptual features, the focus is shifted to the special...... characteristics of experiences themselves. To this extent, the account provided is an alternative to the Phenomenal Concept Strategy. It is argued that certain sensory representations, as accessed by higher cognition, lack constituent structure. Unstructured representations could freely exchange their causal...... to pose a serious problem for contemporary physicalism. I conclude that if those concepts which are related to the phenomenal character of conscious experience are special in any way, their characteristics are derivative of and can be accounted for in terms of the cognitive and representational features...

Phenomenal Qualities of Autobiographical Memories in an Event-Cuing Paradigm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gustavo Gauer

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Phenomenal qualities of recollection and reflexive properties of freely recalled momentous personal events were investigated in 2 experiments. Brazilian undergraduates recalled and rated specific autobiographical episodes through the Autobiographical Memory Questionnaire. In Experiment 1, momentous events were compared to childhood and adolescence scenes. Experiment 2 used an eventcuing paradigm to form 3 pairs of cuing and respective cued events: momentous, earliest recollection, and an event from the subject's birthday last year. No significant differences were found within clusters, but all variables differed between momentous and earliest clusters, whereas only vivid event variables (importance, emotion, rehearsal, unusualness, and consequences distinguished momentous events from last birthday. Momentous events were characterized in terms of reflexively attributed vivid memory properties, rather than of phenomenal qualities of recollection. Results are discussed in their implications for the relationship between phenomenal qualities of recollection and judgments of autobiographical events and patterns of association in event clusters.

Les agriculteurs s'adaptent aux changements climatiques en Tunisie ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

23 août 2011 ... Les eaux grises et la culture en serre augmentent la production alimentaire en Tunisie ... Des chercheurs insistent sur l'importance de favoriser la résilience aux ... Vulnérabilité et adaptation aux changements climatiques des ...

Jean-Baptiste Comby, La Question climatique. Genèse et dépolitisation d’un problème public (Raisons d’Agir, 2015)

OpenAIRE

Tasset, Cyprien

2016-01-01

Une sociologie de la dépolitisation du changement climatique La radicalité climatique Comment se fait-il que la question du réchauffement climatique, qui est portée à l’attention publique dans les démocraties occidentales depuis de nombreuses années maintenant, n’ait pas abouti à des changements politiques proportionnés à l’extrême gravité que lui prêtent les scientifiques ? Dans La Question climatique, issu d’une thèse en information-communication soutenue en 2008, Jean-Baptiste Comby propos...

Les agriculteurs s'adaptent aux changements climatiques en Tunisie ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

23 août 2011 ... À La Soukra, en Tunisie, des centaines de familles à faible revenu vivent des produits de la terre qu'elles cultivent. Or, depuis quelques décennies, ce mode de vie est menacé par l'urbanisation et les changements climatiques.

Changements climatiques | Page 39 | CRDI - Centre de recherches ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Le Moyen-Orient et l'Afrique du Nord connaissent une urbanisation effrénée qui entraîne un grave stress hydrique et nuit à la production alimentaire. Mais la recherche montre comment l'expansion urbaine et la croissance agricole peuvent aller de pair. Axe de recherche. Examiner en quoi les changements climatiques et ...

Etude du processus de changement vecu par des familles ayant decide d'adopter volontairement des comportements d'attenuation des changements climatiques

Science.gov (United States)

Leger, Michel T.

Les activites humaines energivores telles l'utilisation intensive de l'automobile, la surconsommation de biens et l'usage excessif d'electricite contribuent aux changements climatiques et autres problemes environnementaux. Bien que plusieurs recherches rapportent que l'etre humain est de plus en plus conscient de ses impacts sur le climat de la planete, ces memes recherches indiquent qu'en general, les gens continuent a se comporter de facon non ecologique. Que ce soit a l'ecole ou dans la communaute, plusieurs chercheurs en education relative a l'environnement estiment qu'une personne bien intentionnee est capable d'adopter des comportements plus respectueux de l'environnement. Le but de cette these etait de comprendre le processus d'integration de comportements d'attenuation des changements climatiques dans des familles. A cette fin, nous nous sommes fixe deux objectifs : 1) decrire les competences et les procedes qui favorisent l'adoption de comportements d'attenuation des changements climatiques dans des familles et 2) decrire les facteurs et les dynamiques familiales qui facilitent et limitent l'adoption de comportements d'attenuation des changements climatiques dans des familles. Des familles ont ete invitees a essayer des comportements personnels et collectifs d'attenuation des changements climatiques de sorte a integrer des modes de vie plus ecologiques. Sur une periode de huit mois, nous avons suivi leur experience de changement afin de mieux comprendre comment se produit le processus de changement dans des familles qui decident volontairement d'adopter des comportements d'attenuation des changements climatiques. Apres leur avoir fourni quelques connaissances de base sur les changements climatiques, nous avons observe le vecu de changement des familles durant huit mois d'essais a l'aide de journaux reflexifs, d'entretiens d'explicitation et du journal du chercheur. La these comporte trois articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, nous presentons une

'Seeing the Dark': Grounding Phenomenal Transparency and Opacity in Precision Estimation for Active Inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Limanowski, Jakub; Friston, Karl

2018-01-01

One of the central claims of the Self-model Theory of Subjectivity is that the experience of being someone - even in a minimal form - arises through a transparent phenomenal self-model, which itself can in principle be reduced to brain processes. Here, we consider whether it is possible to distinguish between phenomenally transparent and opaque states in terms of active inference. We propose a relationship of phenomenal opacity to expected uncertainty or precision; i.e., the capacity for introspective attention and implicit mental action. Thus we associate introspective attention with the deployment of 'precision' that may render the perceptual evidence (for action) opaque, while treating transparency as a necessary aspect of beliefs about action, i.e., 'what I am' doing. We conclude by proposing how we may have to nuance our conception of minimal phenomenal selfhood and agency in light of this active inference conception of transparency-opacity.

Unitary and Dual Models of Phenomenal Consciousness

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Marvan, Tomáš; Polák, M.

-, č. 56 (2017), s. 1-12 ISSN 1053-8100 Institutional support: RVO:67985955 Keywords : phenomenal consciousness * David Rosenthal * what it is like * unconscious mind * theories fo consciousness Subject RIV: AA - Philosophy ; Religion OBOR OECD: Philosophy, History and Philosophy of science and technology Impact factor: 2.144, year: 2016

Vulnérabilité des troupeaux transhumants aux mutations climatiques ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Vulnérabilité des troupeaux transhumants aux mutations climatiques : analyse des perceptions et adaptations locales dans le bassin de la Sota à Malanville. S Zakari, BAH Tente, I Yabi, IT Imorou, T Tabou, F Afouda, B n'Bessa ...

Des données locales sur les changements climatiques assurent la ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

13 mai 2015 ... Les changements climatiques et la variabilité du climat représentent une menace importante pour l'agriculture, la sécurité alimentaire et les moyens de subsistance en Afrique subsaharienne.

What We Can Learn about Phenomenal Concepts from Wittgenstein’s Private Language

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roberto Sá Pereira

2016-11-01

Full Text Available This paper is both systematic and historical in nature. From a historical viewpoint, I aim to show that to establish Wittgenstein’s claim that “an ‘inner process’ stands in need of outward criteria” (PI §580 there is an enthymeme in Wittgenstein’s private language argument (henceforth PLA overlooked in the literature, namely Wittgenstein’s suggestion that both perceptual and bodily experiences are transparent in the relevant sense that one cannot point to a mental state and wonder “What is that?” From a systematic viewpoint, I aim to show that Wittgenstein’s PLA teaches us that the prevailing picture of the nature of phenomenal concepts (henceforth PCs is upside down: we can only introspectively know what is going on inside our heads, after we learn of what is going on outside (PI §580. In this regard, I aim to defend two associate claims against the prevailing view of PCs on the basis of PLA. First, by means of transparency, I aim to show that there is no de re awareness of our private sensation that could determine the meaning of sensation-words; for example, I am never aware of the phenomenal blueness of my experience of something blue. The second associated claim is that introspective self-knowledge of our private sensation is always de dicto. We can only know introspectively that phenomenal blueness is the phenomenal character of the experience we are undergoing after we have learned that (de dicto knowledge blue is the color that usually causes in us that kind of experience. Likewise, we can only introspectively know that pain is the phenomenal character of the experience we are undergoing after we have learned that pain is what usually causes some typical pain behavior.

PERCEPTIONS DE LA vARIABILITÉ CLIMATIqUE ET STRATÉGIES ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

pas suivie d'une restauration écologique (Waziri,. 2014). Depuis cette décennie, le Sahel connaît de profonds changements liés à l'environnement climatique et .... l'érosion éolienne. .... la vente du bois énergie et de la vulgarisation des.

Impact des changements climatiques sur l’agriculture dans la plaine de Jeffara sud-est tunisien

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Houcine Jeder

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Cette étude évalue la vulnérabilité de l’agriculture dans la plaine de Jeffera sud-est tunisien aux changements climatiques en utilisant la méthode Ricardienne. Cette méthode consiste à exprimer les revenus nets agricoles en fonction des variables climatiques, édaphiques et socio-économiques. Ces modèles ricardiens ont été testés sur la base des données d’une enquête réalisée dans le cadre de projet de développement dans la plaine Jeffera pour la compagne agricole 2002-2003.  Ces modèles ont permis d’exprimer d’une part la relation qui existe entre le revenu agricole et les variables climatiques (température et précipitation et d’autre part, d’analyser la sensibilité des revenus agricoles par rapport à ces variables climatiques. Des simulations ont été faites sur la base de scenario A2 résultat de la projection faite par le modèle HadCM3 à l’échelle nationale et régionale de la Tunisie.Les résultats de l’étude ont montré que la relation entre le revenu agricole et le climat est non linéaire. De même, les effets négatifs de certaines options d’adaptation ont montré que  l’agriculture dans la plaine de Jeffera est une agriculture paysanne basée sur le travail familial qui nécessite aujourd’hui un capital financier important et une marge de modernisation afin d’améliorer l’activité agricole dans les années futures. Tandis que les effets positifs de certaines autres options peuvent être servir comme des points de réflexion dans l’élaboration des stratégies d’adaptation aux changements climatiques comme l’utilisation des nouvelles technologies d’irrigation et l’intégration de l’activité de l’élevage dans l’exploitation agricole.

Is Phenomenal Consciousness a Complex Structure?

OpenAIRE

Stieg, Chuck

2004-01-01

Evolutionary explanations of psychological phenomena have become widespread. This paper examines a recent attempt by Nichols and Grantham (2000) to circumvent the problem of epiphenomenalism in establishing the selective status of consciousness. Nichols and Grantham (2000) argue that a case can be made for the view that consciousness is an adaptation based on its complexity. I set out this argument and argue that it fails to establish that phenomenal consciousness is a complex system. It ...

‘Seeing the Dark’: Grounding Phenomenal Transparency and Opacity in Precision Estimation for Active Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Limanowski, Jakub; Friston, Karl

2018-01-01

One of the central claims of the Self-model Theory of Subjectivity is that the experience of being someone – even in a minimal form – arises through a transparent phenomenal self-model, which itself can in principle be reduced to brain processes. Here, we consider whether it is possible to distinguish between phenomenally transparent and opaque states in terms of active inference. We propose a relationship of phenomenal opacity to expected uncertainty or precision; i.e., the capacity for introspective attention and implicit mental action. Thus we associate introspective attention with the deployment of ‘precision’ that may render the perceptual evidence (for action) opaque, while treating transparency as a necessary aspect of beliefs about action, i.e., ‘what I am’ doing. We conclude by proposing how we may have to nuance our conception of minimal phenomenal selfhood and agency in light of this active inference conception of transparency-opacity. PMID:29780343

Objectif : les zones cruciales au regard des changements climatiques

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

ruissellement et les phénomènes climatiques extrêmes constituent des menaces pour les deltas en. Afrique et en Asie du Sud, où sont situées quelques-unes des plus grandes villes de la planète. Des centaines de millions de personnes sont exposées, et tout particulièrement celles qui vivent dans des établissements.

La gestion des risques climatiques en Afrique du Sud

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

CRDI

ou une variabilité à court terme, mais la plupart des scénarios de changements climatiques prévoient une hausse de leur fréquence. Selon Peter Johnston, du .... Une planification plus éclairée contribuera à sauvegarder des emplois dans le secteur agricole commercial et à réduire les risques pour les agriculteurs démunis.

Aquaculture intérieure et adaptation aux changements climatiques ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Ce projet porte sur l'élevage du tilapia dans de petits étangs fermiers ou des cages flottantes dans les rivières et les réservoirs du nord de la Thaïlande. Les chercheurs exploreront des façons d'adapter les pratiques aquacoles aux changements climatiques et analyseront la valeur de l'aquaculture comme stratégie ...

118 Variabilité climatique et son incidence sur les ressources en ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

MARTINE

particulièrement fortes et touchent de nombreux secteurs d'activité. Le changement ... économique était basé sur l'agriculture est très sensible au contexte climatique [8,9]. ..... rupture. 3-2-6 Calcul du coefficient de tarissement : loi de Maillet.

Electrophysiological evidence for phenomenal consciousness.

Science.gov (United States)

Revonsuo, Antti; Koivisto, Mika

2010-09-01

Abstract Recent evidence from event-related brain potentials (ERPs) lends support to two central theses in Lamme's theory. The earliest ERP correlate of visual consciousness appears over posterior visual cortex around 100-200 ms after stimulus onset. Its scalp topography and time window are consistent with recurrent processing in the visual cortex. This electrophysiological correlate of visual consciousness is mostly independent of later ERPs reflecting selective attention and working memory functions. Overall, the ERP evidence supports the view that phenomenal consciousness of a visual stimulus emerges earlier than access consciousness, and that attention and awareness are served by distinct neural processes.

Signal detection theory, the exclusion failure paradigm and weak consciousness--evidence for the access/phenomenal distinction?

Science.gov (United States)

Irvine, Elizabeth

2009-06-01

Block [Block, N. (2005). Two neural correlates of consciousness. Trends in Cognitive Science, 9, 46-52] and Snodgrass (2006) claim that a signal detection theory (SDT) analysis of qualitative difference paradigms, in particular the exclusion failure paradigm, reveals cases of phenomenal consciousness without access consciousness. This claim is unwarranted on several grounds. First, partial cognitive access rather than a total lack of cognitive access can account for exclusion failure results. Second, Snodgrass's Objective Threshold/Strategic (OT/S) model of perception relies on a problematic 'enable' approach to perception that denies the possibility of intentional control of unconscious perception and any effect of following different task instructions on the presence/absence of phenomenal consciousness. Many of Block's purported examples of phenomenal consciousness without cognitive access also rely on this problematic approach. Third, qualitative difference paradigms may index only a subset of access consciousness. Thus, qualitative difference paradigms like exclusion failure cannot be used to isolate phenomenal consciousness, any attempt to do so still faces serious methodological problems.

Communication des risques reliés aux changements climatiques en ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

1 janv. 2012 ... Il incombe bien sûr aux gouvernements locaux et nationaux de prendre les décisions relatives à l'adaptation aux changements climatiques; ils doivent toutefois les communiquer aux ménages, aux groupes communautaires et aux entreprises privées afin que ceux-ci prennent les décisions qui s'imposent ...

Impacts économiques et sociaux des changements climatiques sur l ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Le projet étudiera l'attribution de l'eau dans les divers secteurs productifs des trois bassins et estimera la demande d'eau pour l'agriculture, l'industrie et la consommation domestique. La recherche identifiera les groupes vulnérables touchés par le stress hydrique engendré par les changements climatiques. On fera appel à ...

Le littoral face aux changements climatiques

OpenAIRE

Mulot, Vanessa; Vigneron, Anne-Laure; Lambert-Hadid, Marie-Laure

2011-01-01

Le changement climatique et l’anthropisation du littoral accentuent le risque de submersion marine sur l’ensemble des côtes. Malgré l’élévation en cours du niveau des mers, l’attractivité du littoral ne décroît pas malgré la connaissance du risque. Ce risque aggravera dans les années à venir les enjeux liés à la submersion marine, parmi lesquels le danger pour les vies humaines, comme l’a malheureusement illustré l’actualité (Xynhia), mais aussi la question de la propriété des biens et des te...

Adaptation aux changements climatiques grâce à une gestion ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Cette équipe évaluera les problèmes de disponibilité de l'eau et de gestion du bassin versant dans le bassin du Tensift, notamment sur les plans biophysique, écologique, climatique et socio-économique. Elle utilisera des modèles pour estimer les futurs schémas d'utilisation des ressources hydriques afin de déterminer ...

Changement climatique et domaines skiables: simulation en Savoie et Haute-Savoie à l’horizon 2015

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jean-Christophe Loubier

2007-03-01

Full Text Available Les domaines skiables et le changement climatique posent des questions importantes et nouvelles pour les espaces montagnards. Dans les hautes vallées où ces domaines sont souvent le moteur principal du développement local, on peut s'interroger sur la pérennité du modèle économique de l'or blanc à moyen terme quand les modèles de simulation du climat tablent sur une élévation de la température moyenne comprise entre 1,5° et 5° en 2100. Nous avons tenté de simuler les effets du changement climatique à l'horizon 2015, sur les domaines skiables de Savoie et Haute Savoie.

Les changements climatiques brouillent les prédictions des faiseurs ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

8 oct. 2010 ... Depuis des générations, les autochtones de l'ouest du Kenya comptent sur les pouvoirs mystiques que possèdent les « faiseurs de pluie » du clan Nganyi pour prédire la météo. Cependant, le temps instable amené par les changements climatiques brouille les indices grâce auxquels les faiseurs de pluie ...

Adaptation aux changements climatiques au Malawi grâce à l ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

28 avr. 2016 ... Depuis 2001, le programme Écosystèmes et santé humaine du CRDI finance au Malawi des recherches centrées sur les liens entre la fertilité des sols, ... L'équipe examine la façon dont la recherche participative peut guider l'élaboration de stratégies d'adaptation aux changements climatiques, dans un ...

Régulation en génie climatique froid, climatisation, chauffage

CERN Document Server

Desmons, Jean

2010-01-01

Après un rappel des bases de l'électronique et de l'hydraulique nécessaires en régulation climatique, cet ouvrage donne tous les éléments méthodologiques et technologiques pour : concevoir les systèmes de régulation adaptés aux installations de froid, de climatisation et de chauffage ; mettre en oeuvre les régulateurs (entrées / sorties, réglage, paramétrage, dépannage, repérage et contrôle) ; pratiquer la maintenance des installations. Il regroupe notamment plusieurs cas pratiques de régulation d'installations réelles : groupe à eau glacée, bloc opératoire, pompes à chaleur, régulation numérique, détente directe, alimentation en fluide frigoporteur. Cette seconde édition révisée et mise à jour s'enrichit également d'une section sur les installations photovoltaïques et d'un nouveau chapitre sur la régulation numérique et les systèmes informatiques. Cet ouvrage constitue un outil de travail indispensable aux ingénieurs et techniciens en froid et génie climatique et en régu...

Lines that induce phenomenal transparency.

Science.gov (United States)

Grieco, Alba; Roncato, Sergio

2005-01-01

Three neighbouring opaque surfaces may appear split into two layers, one transparent and one opaque beneath, if an outline contour is drawn that encompasses two of them. The phenomenon was originally observed by Kanizsa [1955 Rivista di Psicologia 69 3-19; 1979 Organization in Vision: Essays on Gestalt Psychology (New York: Praeger)], for the case where an outline contour is drawn to encompass one of the two parts of a bicoloured figure and a portion of a background of lightest (or darkest) luminance. Preliminary observations revealed that the outline contour yields different effects: in addition to the stratification into layers described by Kanizsa, a second split, opposite in depth order, may occur when the outline contour is close in luminance to one of the three surfaces. An initial experiment was designed to investigate what conditions give rise to the two phenomenal transparencies: this led to the conclusion that an outline contour superimposed on an opaque surface causes this surface to emerge as a transparent layer when the luminances of the contour and the surface differ, in absolute value, by no more than 13.2 cd m(-2). We have named this phenomenon 'transparency of the intercepted surface', to distinguish it from the phenomenal transparency arising when the contour and surface are very different in luminance. When such a difference exists, the contour acts as a factor of surface definition and grouping: the portion of the homogeneous surface it bounds emerges as a fourth surface and groups with a nearby surface if there is one close in luminance. The transparency phenomena ('transparency of the contoured surface') perceived in this context conform to the constraints of Metelli's model, as demonstrated by a second experiment, designed to gather 'opacity' ratings of stimuli. The observer judgments conformed to the values predicted by Metelli's formula for perceived degree of transparency, alpha. The role of the outline contour in conveying figural and

The complete information for phenomenal distributed parameter control of multicomponent chemical processes in gas, fluid and solid phase

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niemiec, W.

1985-01-01

A constitutive mathematical model of distributed parameters of multicomponent chemical processes in gas, fluid and solid phase is utilized to the realization of phenomenal distributed parameter control of these processes. Original systems of partial differential constitutive state equations, in the following derivative forms /I/, /II/ and /III/ are solved in this paper from the point of view of information for phenomenal distributed parameter control of considered processes. Obtained in this way for multicomponent chemical processes in gas, fluid and solid phase: -dynamical working space-time characteristics/analytical solutions in working space-time of chemical reactors/, -dynamical phenomenal Green functions as working space-time transfer functions, -statical working space characteristics /analytical solutions in working space of chemical reactors/, -statical phenomenal Green functions as working space transfer functions, are applied, as information for realization of constitutive distributed parameter control of mass, energy and momentum aspects of above processes. Two cases are considered by existence of: A/sup o/ - initial conditions, B/sup o/ - initial and boundary conditions, for multicomponent chemical processes in gas, fluid and solid phase

Phenomenal transparency in achromatic checkerboards.

Science.gov (United States)

Masin, S C

1999-04-01

The study explored the luminance relations that determine the occurrence of achromatic transparency in phenomenal surfaces on complex backgrounds. Let the luminances of the left and right parts of a transparent surface on a bipartite background and those of the left and right parts of the bipartite background be p and q and m and n, respectively. Metelli proposed that this surface looks transparent when the rule p q if m > n) is satisfied, and Masin and Fukuda that it looks transparent when the inclusion rule is satisfied, that is, when p epsilon (m, q) or q epsilon (p, n). These rules also apply to achromatic checkerboards formed by one checkerboard enclosed in another checkerboard. This study shows that only the inclusion rule correctly predicted the occurrence of transparency in these checkerboards.

Protection des régions semi-arides contre les chocs climatiques ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

21 avr. 2016 ... Définition de mésadaptation. Elizabeth Carabine, chercheuse à ... Elle a soutenu que l'inaction délibérée devrait être considérée comme une mésadaptation si elle contribue à augmenter les risques climatiques et les résultats négatifs pour les gens et les collectivités. Selon elle, il faudrait se pencher ...

Selective effects of emotion on the phenomenal characteristics of autobiographical memories.

Science.gov (United States)

Schaefer, Alexandre; Philippot, Pierre

2005-02-01

The present study investigates the emotional determinants of the phenomenal characteristics of autobiographical memories. A total of 84 participants completed the Memory Characteristics Questionnaire (MCQ, Johnson, Foley, Suengas, & Raye, 1988) after retrieving and orally describing a negative, a positive, and a neutral autobiographical memory. In addition, self-report and physiological measures of emotional state at retrieval were recorded. Results suggest that recall of perceptual, sensory, and semantic elements is better for emotional memories than for neutral ones. This difference is not significant for contextual and temporal aspects, suggesting that emotional memories are more vivid but no more specific than are neutral ones. In addition, positive memories yielded higher MCQ ratings than did negative memories for sensory, temporal, and contextual aspects. Finally, correlations suggest a positive relation between emotional state at retrieval and level of phenomenal detail of retrieved memories. Results are interpreted in terms of multilevel models of emotion and of Conway and Pleydell-Pearce's (2000) model.

Variabilité climatique et production maraîchère dans la plaine ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Cependant, dans les pays au Sud du Sahara, la variabilité climatique représente une grande menace pour la croissance et le développement durable. ... le maraîchage se traduisent entre autres par les inondations, les sécheresses, la baisse des rendements agricoles et le bouleversement du calendrier agricole classique.

Access is mainly a second-order process: SDT models whether phenomenally (first-order) conscious states are accessed by reflectively (second-order) conscious processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Snodgrass, Michael; Kalaida, Natasha; Winer, E Samuel

2009-06-01

Access can either be first-order or second-order. First order access concerns whether contents achieve representation in phenomenal consciousness at all; second-order access concerns whether phenomenally conscious contents are selected for metacognitive, higher order processing by reflective consciousness. When the optional and flexible nature of second-order access is kept in mind, there remain strong reasons to believe that exclusion failure can indeed isolate phenomenally conscious stimuli that are not so accessed. Irvine's [Irvine, E. (2009). Signal detection theory, the exclusion failure paradigm and weak consciousness-Evidence for the access/phenomenal distinction? Consciousness and Cognition.] partial access argument fails because exclusion failure is indeed due to lack of second-order access, not insufficient phenomenally conscious information. Further, the enable account conforms with both qualitative differences and subjective report, and is simpler than the endow account. Finally, although first-order access may be a distinct and important process, second-order access arguably reflects the core meaning of access generally.

Fish do not feel pain and its implications for understanding phenomenal consciousness.

Science.gov (United States)

Key, Brian

Phenomenal consciousness or the subjective experience of feeling sensory stimuli is fundamental to human existence. Because of the ubiquity of their subjective experiences, humans seem to readily accept the anthropomorphic extension of these mental states to other animals. Humans will typically extrapolate feelings of pain to animals if they respond physiologically and behaviourally to noxious stimuli. The alternative view that fish instead respond to noxious stimuli reflexly and with a limited behavioural repertoire is defended within the context of our current understanding of the neuroanatomy and neurophysiology of mental states. Consequently, a set of fundamental properties of neural tissue necessary for feeling pain or experiencing affective states in vertebrates is proposed. While mammals and birds possess the prerequisite neural architecture for phenomenal consciousness, it is concluded that fish lack these essential characteristics and hence do not feel pain.

Caractérisation de la variabilité climatique : cas du bassin versant ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

DK

Cette étude présente l'intérêt de certaines méthodes statistiques, pour interpréter la variabilité spatiotemporelle ... Mots-clés : Sécheresse - Variabilité climatique - Fraction pluviométrique - Bassin versant Medjerda - Est de .... global actuel, aussi bien l'espérance ...... de l'Afrique de l'Ouest non sahélienne entre 1950-1989.

La vulnérabilité aux changements climatiques, une expérience ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

21 avr. 2011 ... Madagascar, la quatrième plus grande île au monde, héberge une multitude de formes de vie qu'on ne trouve nulle part ailleurs sur la planète. Dans la plupart des cas, cette biodiversité est extrêmement vulnérable aux changements climatiques, tout comme l'agriculture pluviale, la pêche et la foresterie, ...

Lutte contre le changement climatique et maîtrise de la demande d’énergie : introduction au dossier thématique

OpenAIRE

Aubrée, Loïc; Calvo-Mendieta, Iratxe

2017-01-01

Cet article constitue l’introduction du dossier thématique consacré à la lutte contre le changement climatique et la maîtrise de la demande d’énergie. Après un dossier de la Revue Développement Durable et Territoires, paru en décembre 2015 et en juillet 2016, abordant la question du climat sous l’angle de l’adaptation, les articles de ce dossier s’intéressent aux politiques, aux programmes et aux instruments qui contribuent à l’atténuation du changement climatique. L’objectif est la diminutio...

Attention, working memory, and phenomenal experience of WM content: memory levels determined by different types of top-down modulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacob, Jane; Jacobs, Christianne; Silvanto, Juha

2015-01-01

What is the role of top-down attentional modulation in consciously accessing working memory (WM) content? In influential WM models, information can exist in different states, determined by allocation of attention; placing the original memory representation in the center of focused attention gives rise to conscious access. Here we discuss various lines of evidence indicating that such attentional modulation is not sufficient for memory content to be phenomenally experienced. We propose that, in addition to attentional modulation of the memory representation, another type of top-down modulation is required: suppression of all incoming visual information, via inhibition of early visual cortex. In this view, there are three distinct memory levels, as a function of the top-down control associated with them: (1) Nonattended, nonconscious associated with no attentional modulation; (2) attended, phenomenally nonconscious memory, associated with attentional enhancement of the actual memory trace; (3) attended, phenomenally conscious memory content, associated with enhancement of the memory trace and top-down suppression of all incoming visual input.

Inventaire des cartes climatiques conservées à la cartothèque de l' IGN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bernadette Joseph

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Cet inventaire présente la liste des cartes climatiques étrangères, conservées à la cartothèque de l' IGN. Ce fonds très riche en cartes thématiques n'est actuellement pas répertorié dans les catalogues SUDOC ou OPALE. Il n'est accessible qu'en interne sur fichiers papier.

Les ecarts de financement en matiere d'adaptation aux changements climatiques - avec la perspective des CPDN

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olhoff, Anne; Bee, Skylar; Puig, Daniel

En 2014, le Programme des Nations Unies pour l’Environnement (PNUE) a publié son premier rapport sur les écarts entre besoins et perspectives en matière d’adaptation (AGR 2014) (PNUE, 2014), lequel a permis de poser un cadre préliminaire pour évaluer ces écarts et d’établir une évaluation...... rapport sur les écarts financiers et les options permettant de les combler. Le rapport sera publié au printemps 2016. Cette mise à jour doit contribuer aux débats lors de la 21ème session de la Conférence des Parties (COP 21) à la Convention-Cadre des Nations Unies sur les Changements Climatiques (CCNUCC...... les besoins de financement présentes dans les composantes adaptation des Contributions Prévues Déterminées au niveau National (CPDN) (INDC) – soit les engagements post 2020 que les pays se proposent mettre en oeuvre dans le cadre d’un nouvel accord mondial sur les changements climatiques....

Phenomenal and access consciousness in olfaction.

Science.gov (United States)

Stevenson, Richard J

2009-12-01

Contemporary literature on consciousness, with some exceptions, rarely considers the olfactory system. In this article the characteristics of olfactory consciousness, viewed from the standpoint of the phenomenal (P)/access (A) distinction, are examined relative to the major senses. The review details several qualitative differences in both olfactory P consciousness (shifts in the felt location, universal synesthesia-like and affect-rich experiences, and misperceptions) and A consciousness (recovery from habituation, capacity for conscious processing, access to semantic and episodic memory, learning, attention, and in the serial-unitary nature of olfactory percepts). The basis for these differences is argued to arise from the functions that the olfactory system performs and from the unique neural architecture needed to instantiate them. These data suggest, at a minimum, that P and A consciousness are uniquely configured in olfaction and an argument can be made that the P and A distinction may not hold for this sensory system.

Moral significance of phenomenal consciousness.

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, Neil; Savulescu, Julian

2009-01-01

Recent work in neuroimaging suggests that some patients diagnosed as being in the persistent vegetative state are actually conscious. In this paper, we critically examine this new evidence. We argue that though it remains open to alternative interpretations, it strongly suggests the presence of consciousness in some patients. However, we argue that its ethical significance is less than many people seem to think. There are several different kinds of consciousness, and though all kinds of consciousness have some ethical significance, different kinds underwrite different kinds of moral value. Demonstrating that patients have phenomenal consciousness--conscious states with some kind of qualitative feel to them--shows that they are moral patients, whose welfare must be taken into consideration. But only if they are subjects of a sophisticated kind of access consciousness--where access consciousness entails global availability of information to cognitive systems--are they persons, in the technical sense of the word employed by philosophers. In this sense, being a person is having the full moral status of ordinary human beings. We call for further research which might settle whether patients who manifest signs of consciousness possess the sophisticated kind of access consciousness required for personhood.

Subjective Experiences of Space and Time: Self, Sensation, and Phenomenal Time

OpenAIRE

Ram Lakhan Pandey Vimal

2008-01-01

The investigation of subjective experiences (SEs) of space and time is at the core of consciousness research. The term ‘space’ includes the subject and objects. The SE of subject, I-ness, is defined as ‘Self’. The SEs of objects, subject’s external body, and subject’s internal states such as feelings, thoughts, and so on can be investigated using the proto-experience (PE)-SE framework. The SE of time is defined as ‘phenomenal time’ (...

Fish do not feel pain and its implications for understanding phenomenal consciousness

OpenAIRE

Key, Brian

2014-01-01

Phenomenal consciousness or the subjective experience of feeling sensory stimuli is fundamental to human existence. Because of the ubiquity of their subjective experiences, humans seem to readily accept the anthropomorphic extension of these mental states to other animals. Humans will typically extrapolate feelings of pain to animals if they respond physiologically and behaviourally to noxious stimuli. The alternative view that fish instead respond to noxious stimuli reflexly and with a limit...

La modélisation intégrée des changements climatiques et les liens ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Les changements climatiques influencent la fréquence et l'intensité des phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes, exposant à la fois les populations et les économies à des pertes de vie, de productivité et de propriété. Ce projet aidera les planificateurs et les responsables des politiques à réagir de manière plus efficace en ...

Impact de la variabilité climatique sur le régime des cours d'eau du ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... pluies de la “saison sèche” d'été (juillet et août) sont plus élevées depuis quelques décennies, ce qui entretient vraisemblablement une humidité du sol plus élevée favorable au ruissellement au début de la crue d'automne. Mots clefs : changement climatique ; climat équatorial ; séries chronologiques ; Sud Cameroun.

Contributions of retinal input and phenomenal representation of a fixation object to the saccadic gap effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Ueda, Hiroshi; Takahashi, Kohske; Watanabe, Katsumi

2013-04-19

The saccadic "gap effect" refers to a phenomenon whereby saccadic reaction times (SRTs) are shortened by the removal of a visual fixation stimulus prior to target presentation. In the current study, we investigated whether the gap effect was influenced by retinal input of a fixation stimulus, as well as phenomenal permanence and/or expectation of the re-emergence of a fixation stimulus. In Experiment 1, we used an occluded fixation stimulus that was gradually hidden by a moving plate prior to the target presentation, which produced the impression that the fixation stimulus still remained and would reappear from behind the plate. We found that the gap effect was significantly weakened with the occluded fixation stimulus. However, the SRT with the occluded fixation stimulus was still shorter in comparison to when the fixation stimulus physically remained on the screen. In Experiment 2, we investigated whether this effect was due to phenomenal maintenance or expectation of the reappearance of the fixation stimulus; this was achieved by using occluding plates that were an identical color to the background screen, giving the impression of reappearance of the fixation stimulus but not of its maintenance. The result showed that the gap effect was still weakened by the same degree even without phenomenal maintenance of the fixation stimulus. These results suggest that the saccadic gap effect is modulated by both retinal input and subjective expectation of re-emergence of the fixation stimulus. In addition to oculomotor mechanisms, other components, such as attentional mechanisms, likely contribute to facilitation of the subsequent action. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conférence extérieure - Université de Genève: La modélisation numérique des extrêmes climatiques: Projections pour l'Europe et la Suisse d'ici 2100 - French version only

CERN Document Server

2006-01-01

Université de Genève Ecole de physique 24 quai Ernest Ansermet 1211 Genève 4 Tél : + 41 22 379 63 83 (secrétariat) Tél : + 41 22 379 62 56 (réception) Fax: + 41 22 379 69 22 Lundi 15 janvier 2007 17 heures - Auditoire Stueckelberg La modélisation numérique des extrêmes climatiques: Projections pour l'Europe et la Suisse d'ici 2100 Prof. Martin Beniston / Chaire de Climatologie de l'Université de Genève Les nombreuses catastrophes liées au climat (canicule 2003 en Europe; inondations en Suisse en 2005; sécheresse en Australie; ouragans Katrina, etc.) donnent l'impression que les catastrophes climatiques qui touchent de nombreuses parties du monde sont la preuve du réchauffement climatique. A voir... Pourtant, les changements climatiques représentent l'un des thèmes de préoccupation majeure de ce début du 21e siècle, du moins pour les scientifiques sinon pour le monde politique. Car si l'ampleur, et surtout la rapidité du changement, sont aussi importants que ce que laissent entrevoi...

Quel futur pour les services écosystémiques de la forêt alpine dans un contexte de changement climatique ?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benoît Courbaud

2011-01-01

Full Text Available La forêt de montagne produit de nombreux services écosystémiques qui vont être affectés par les changements climatiques. On attend une remontée des essences en altitude qui pourrait conduire à une diminution des résineux et des espèces du subalpin. Ces changements d’essences pourraient avoir un impact négatif sur la biodiversité et sur la production de bois d’œuvre. On observe cependant également une augmentation de la productivité favorable à la production de bois énergie et au moins temporairement de bois d’œuvre, ainsi qu’au stockage de carbone. Face à une augmentation possible des évènements climatiques extrêmes, les changements de végétation pourront être marqués par des épisodes de dépérissements, très négatifs pour la filière économique, la protection contre les risques naturels et la biodiversité. Le changement climatique affectera la forêt également de manière indirecte en augmentant la demande en énergie renouvelable et en stockage de carbone. Les incertitudes sur les prédictions de changements de végétation sont élevées, ce qui rend délicate la définition de stratégies d’adaptation de la gestion forestière. Une gestion de crises efficace, un accompagnement des évolutions naturelles de la forêt basé sur une interaction recherche-gestion (gestion adaptative, et la prise en compte explicite de la notion d’incertitude paraissent des éléments essentiels au maintien des services écosystémiques fournis par la forêt.Mountain forests produce a large number of ecosystem services that are going to be affected by climate change. We are expecting an increase in high altitude species that could result in the decrease in resinous and subalpine species. These changes in species could adversely affect biodiversity and timber production. However, we also observe an increase in productivity that favours the production of energy wood and, at least temporarily, timber, as well as carbon

Effet des conditions climatiques sur le niveau du lac Sidi Ali (Moyen Atlas, Maroc)

OpenAIRE

Sayad, Ahmed; Chakiri, Saïd; Martin, Claude; Bejjaji, Zohra; Echarfaoui, Hassan

2012-01-01

Le lac Sidi Ali est un lac naturel d'altitude (2070-2080 m), sans exutoire superficiel, déterminé par le barrage d'une coulée basaltique. Doté d'un bassin versant apparent de 15,6 km2, il est alimenté par des eaux de ruissellement et par des sources karstiques. Son niveau subit des variations très fortes, annuelles et interannuelles, sous le contrôle des conditions climatiques, et en particulier des pluies et de l'évapotranspiration. Les périodes de sécheresse qui ont marqué les trois dernièr...

Modelisation de l'erosion et des sources de pollution dans le bassin versant Iroquois/Blanchette dans un contexte de changements climatiques

Science.gov (United States)

Coulibaly, Issa

Principale source d'approvisionnement en eau potable de la municipalite d'Edmundston, le bassin versant Iroquois/Blanchette est un enjeu capital pour cette derniere, d'ou les efforts constants deployes pour assurer la preservation de la qualite de son eau. A cet effet, plusieurs etudes y ont ete menees. Les plus recentes ont identifie des menaces de pollution de diverses origines dont celles associees aux changements climatiques (e.g. Maaref 2012). Au regard des impacts des modifications climatiques annonces a l'echelle du Nouveau-Brunswick, le bassin versant Iroquois/Blanchette pourrait etre fortement affecte, et cela de diverses facons. Plusieurs scenarios d'impacts sont envisageables, notamment les risques d'inondation, d'erosion et de pollution a travers une augmentation des precipitations et du ruissellement. Face a toutes ces menaces eventuelles, l'objectif de cette etude est d'evaluer les impacts potentiels des changements climatiques sur les risques d'erosion et de pollution a l'echelle du bassin versant Iroquois/Blanchette. Pour ce faire, la version canadienne de l'equation universelle revisee des pertes en sol RUSLE-CAN et le modele hydrologique SWAT ( Soil and Water Assessment Tool) ont ete utilises pour modeliser les risques d'erosion et de pollution au niveau dans la zone d'etude. Les donnees utilisees pour realiser ce travail proviennent de sources diverses et variees (teledetections, pedologiques, topographiques, meteorologiques, etc.). Les simulations ont ete realisees en deux etapes distinctes, d'abord dans les conditions actuelles ou l'annee 2013 a ete choisie comme annee de reference, ensuite en 2025 et 2050. Les resultats obtenus montrent une tendance a la hausse de la production de sediments dans les prochaines annees. La production maximale annuelle augmente de 8,34 % et 8,08 % respectivement en 2025 et 2050 selon notre scenario le plus optimiste, et de 29,99 % en 2025 et 29,72 % en 2050 selon le scenario le plus pessimiste par rapport a celle

Study of the phenomenon of cathodic pulverisation at low energy; Etude du phenomene de la pulverisation cathodique a basse energie

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Druaux, J [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

1957-07-01

Every time positive ions bombard the cathode of a discharge tube, a continuous destruction of the cathode and a corresponding deposit on the surrounding walls are observed. This phenomenon is known as 'cathodic pulverisation'. It has been known for about a century, but the difficulties of observation and the numerous secondary phenomena which accompany it have for a long time held up the correct explanation of its physical mechanism. At the present time, it can be said that no theory can yet claim to make it completely intelligible. However, cathodic pulverisation can be considered as a particular case of the phenomenon of collisions between atomic particles; in this instance it is a question of the impact of positive ions accelerated by U volts (I{sub U}{sup +}) on the atoms of a solid or liquid target X. (author) [French] Chaque fois que des ions positifs bombardent la cathode d'un tube a decharge, on observe une destruction continue de celle-ci et un depot correspondant sur les parois environnantes. Ce phenomene est appele 'pulverisation cathodique'. Il est connu depuis un siecle environ, mais les difficultes d'observation et les nombreux phenomenes secondaires qui l'accompagnent ont retarde pendant longtemps l'explication correcte de son mecanisme physique. A l'heure actuelle, on peut dire qu'aucune theorie ne peut encore pretendre a son intelligibilite complete. Cependant, on peut considerer la pulverisation cathodique comme un cas particulier du phenomene de chocs entre particules atomiques; en l'occurrence, il s'agit de l'impact d'ions positifs acceleres par U volts (I{sub U}{sup +}) sur les atomes d'une cible X solide ou liquide. (auteur)

The phenomenal dissociation between coloration and object-hole effects in the watercolor illusion.

Science.gov (United States)

Tanca, Maria; Pinna, Baingio

2008-01-01

The watercolor illusion is a color spreading effect at long-range diffusing from a thin colored contour juxtaposed to a chromatic one of higher contrast and a object-hole effect across a large area (Pinna, 1987; Pinna et al., 2001, 2003; Pinna & Reeves, 2006). The watercolored figure appears evenly colored by an opaque light veil of chromatic tint (coloration effect), with a clear surface color property spreading from the lighter contour. At the same time, the watercolored figure manifests a strong figure-ground organization and a solid figural appearance comparable to a bas-relief illuminated from the top (object-hole effect). It appears similar to a rounded surface segregated in depth, which extends out from the flat surface. The complementary region appears as a hole or empty space. The phenomenal properties of coloration and object-hole effects raise some questions. Can the two effects be considered relatively independent? Under what conditions can a possible dissociation occur? How does the dissociation of one effect, say the coloration, influence the object-hole effect and vice versa? To answer these questions two new effects related to the watercolor illusion were psychophysically studied: (1) the "uneven watercolor," based on a modified watercolor figure without volumetric and three-dimensional properties but with a strong coloration effect and (2) the "watercolor surface capture," where oblique lines within a watercolor figure appear bulging, curved in depth and segregated from those that are perceived as placed in the background or perceived through holes. The results of two experiments suggest that the coloration effect can be dissociated from the object-hole one. These results are discussed in the light of a simple summation hypothesis of the underlying effects composing the whole figurality. This hypothesis can suggest further investigation both in the phenomenal and in the neurophysiological domain.

Effet des conditions climatiques sur le niveau du lac Sidi Ali (Moyen Atlas, Maroc

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claude Martin

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Le lac Sidi Ali est un lac naturel d'altitude (2070-2080 m, sans exutoire superficiel, déterminé par le barrage d'une coulée basaltique. Doté d'un bassin versant apparent de 15,6 km2, il est alimenté par des eaux de ruissellement et par des sources karstiques. Son niveau subit des variations très fortes, annuelles et interannuelles, sous le contrôle des conditions climatiques, et en particulier des pluies et de l'évapotranspiration. Les périodes de sécheresse qui ont marqué les trois dernières décennies, se sont traduites par un abaissement du niveau de près de 7 m. Mais les précipitations abondantes des années 2008-09 et 2009-10 ont provoqué une nette remontée. Une régression multiple d'assez bonne qualité (r = 0,87 lie la variation annuelle du niveau (d'août à août à différents paramètres (conditions climatiques et niveau initial du lac.Lake Sidi Ali is a natural lake at high altitude (2070-2080 m, without surface outlet, determined by the dam of a basalt flow. With an apparent catchment of 15.6 km2, it is fed by runoff and karst springs. Its level shows strong annual and interannual variations, depending on weather conditions, particularly rainfall and evapotranspiration. Droughts that have marked the last three decades have resulted in a lowering of about 7 m of the water level. But heavy rainfall that occurred in 2008-09 and 2009-10 caused a marked rise. A multiple regression of sufficient quality (r = 0.87 binds the annual change (from august to august at differents parameters (weather conditions and initial level of the lake.

Gestion Technique Centralisée en Génie Climatique

CERN Document Server

Pepinster, P

1999-01-01

Il y a une quinzaine d'années, la Division ST a introduit sur les équipements de chauffage et de climatisation du CERN, des systèmes de contrôle locaux à microprocesseur en lieu et place des chaînes de régulation devenues obsolètes. Adoptée dans une volonté d'évolution technologique et dans une démarche de rationalisation des dépenses d'énergie, cette technique s'est répandue sur les différents sites du Laboratoire au fil des années. Depuis les applications de confort climatique dans les bâtiments tertiaires, jusqu'au conditionnement d'air des accélérateurs et des expériences, en passant par l'autocontrôle des chaufferies centrales, ces 'Unités de Traitement Locales' (UTL) sont aujourd'hui interconnectées en un système de Gestion Technique Centralisée d'environ 140 sous-stations. L'objet du document est de présenter la structure actuelle de ce système GTC, d'en montrer les possibilités et l'intérêt dans son exploitation quotidienne au CERN, et d'aborder ses évolutions futures.

Remembering and Telling: Narrative Coherence and Phenomenal Aspects of Autobiographical Memories

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gustavo Gauer

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Investigated the relationship between phenomenal qualities of autobiographical memories and narrative structure of written reports of them. In Experiment 1, 30 undergraduates provided 2 reports, the most momentous event of their lives (MPE and their earliest childhood recollection (ECR. Reports were coded for 2 variables: narrative coherence (NC, and event specificity (SP. No significant relationship was found between NC and SP, nor between SP and type of event. Experiment 2 asked 40 undergraduates to report MPEs and correlated NC and subjective ratings of events from the Autobiographical Memory Questionnaire (AMQ: vividness of imagery, recollection, importance, consequences, and rehearsal. A significant correlation between importance rating and the orientation index points out to the flashbulb aspect of the memories. Significant correlation between volume report and recollection indicates an interaction between higher indices of recollection and individual's predisposition to report the event in written form. Results did not corroborate a hypothesis of identity between autobiographical memory representation and expression.

Why are dreams interesting for philosophers? The example of minimal phenomenal selfhood, plus an agenda for future research.

Science.gov (United States)

Metzinger, Thomas

2013-01-01

This metatheoretical paper develops a list of new research targets by exploring particularly promising interdisciplinary contact points between empirical dream research and philosophy of mind. The central example is the MPS-problem. It is constituted by the epistemic goal of conceptually isolating and empirically grounding the phenomenal property of "minimal phenomenal selfhood," which refers to the simplest form of self-consciousness. In order to precisely describe MPS, one must focus on those conditions that are not only causally enabling, but strictly necessary to bring it into existence. This contribution argues that research on bodiless dreams, asomatic out-of-body experiences, and full-body illusions has the potential to make decisive future contributions. Further items on the proposed list of novel research targets include differentiating the concept of a "first-person perspective" on the subcognitive level; investigating relevant phenomenological and neurofunctional commonalities between mind-wandering and dreaming; comparing the functional depth of embodiment across dream and wake states; and demonstrating that the conceptual consequences of cognitive corruption and systematic rationality deficits in the dream state are much more serious for philosophical epistemology (and, perhaps, the methodology of dream research itself) than commonly assumed. The paper closes by specifying a list of potentially innovative research goals that could serve to establish a stronger connection between dream research and philosophy of mind.

Why are dreams interesting for philosophers?The example of minimal phenomenal selfhood, plus an agenda for future research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas K. Metzinger

2013-10-01

Full Text Available This metatheoretical paper develops a list of new research targets by exploring particularly promising interdisciplinary contact points between empirical dream research and philosophy of mind. The central example is the MPS-problem. It is constituted by the epistemic goal of conceptually isolating and empirically grounding the phenomenal property of minimal phenomenal selfhood, which refers to the simplest form of self-consciousness. In order to precisely describe MPS, one must focus on those conditions that are not only causally enabling, but strictly necessary to bring it into existence. This contribution argues that research on bodiless dreams, asomatic out-of-body experiences, and full-body illusions has the potential to make decisive future contributions. Further items on the proposed list of novel research targets include differentiating the concept of a first-person perspective on the subcognitive level; investigating relevant phenomenological and neurofunctional commonalities between mind-wandering and dreaming; comparing the functional depth of embodiment across dream and wake states; and demonstrating that the conceptual consequences of cognitive corruption and systematic rationality deficits in the dream state are much more serious for philosophical epistemology (and, perhaps, the methodology of dream research itself than commonly assumed. The paper closes by specifying a list of potentially innovative research goals that could serve to establish a stronger connection between dream research and philosophy of mind.

Attention, working memory, and phenomenal experience of WM content: memory levels determined by different types of top-down modulation

OpenAIRE

Jacob, Jane; Jacobs, Christianne; Silvanto, Juha

2015-01-01

What is the role of top-down attentional modulation in consciously accessing working memory (WM) content? In influential WM models, information can exist in different states, determined by allocation of attention; placing the original memory representation in the center of focused attention gives rise to conscious access. Here we discuss various lines of evidence indicating that such attentional modulation is not sufficient for memory content to be phenomenally experienced. We propose that, i...

Why are dreams interesting for philosophers? The example of minimal phenomenal selfhood, plus an agenda for future research1

Science.gov (United States)

Metzinger, Thomas

2013-01-01

This metatheoretical paper develops a list of new research targets by exploring particularly promising interdisciplinary contact points between empirical dream research and philosophy of mind. The central example is the MPS-problem. It is constituted by the epistemic goal of conceptually isolating and empirically grounding the phenomenal property of “minimal phenomenal selfhood,” which refers to the simplest form of self-consciousness. In order to precisely describe MPS, one must focus on those conditions that are not only causally enabling, but strictly necessary to bring it into existence. This contribution argues that research on bodiless dreams, asomatic out-of-body experiences, and full-body illusions has the potential to make decisive future contributions. Further items on the proposed list of novel research targets include differentiating the concept of a “first-person perspective” on the subcognitive level; investigating relevant phenomenological and neurofunctional commonalities between mind-wandering and dreaming; comparing the functional depth of embodiment across dream and wake states; and demonstrating that the conceptual consequences of cognitive corruption and systematic rationality deficits in the dream state are much more serious for philosophical epistemology (and, perhaps, the methodology of dream research itself) than commonly assumed. The paper closes by specifying a list of potentially innovative research goals that could serve to establish a stronger connection between dream research and philosophy of mind. PMID:24198793

Phenomenology is not Phenomenalism. Is there such a thing as phenomenology of sport?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Halák

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Background: The application of the philosophical mode of investigation called "phenomenology" in the context of sport. Objective: The goal is to show how and why the phenomenological method is very often misused in sport-related research. Methods: Interpretation of the key texts, explanation of their meaning. Results: The confrontation of concrete sport-related texts with the original meaning of the key phenomenological notions shows mainly three types of misuse - the confusion of phenomenology with immediacy, with an epistemologically subjectivist stance (phenomenalism, and with empirical research oriented towards objects in the world. Conclusions: Many of the discussed authors try to take over the epistemological validity of phenomenology for their research, which itself is not phenomenological, and it seems that this is because they are lacking such a methodological foundation. We believe that an authentically phenomenological analysis of sport is possible, but it must respect the basic distinctions that differentiate phenomenology from other styles of thinking.

Slow cortical potentials and "inner time consciousness" - A neuro-phenomenal hypothesis about the "width of present".

Science.gov (United States)

Northoff, Georg

2016-05-01

William James postulated a "stream of consciousness" that presupposes temporal continuity. The neuronal mechanisms underlying the construction of such temporal continuity remain unclear, however, in my contribution, I propose a neuro-phenomenal hypothesis that is based on slow cortical potentials and their extension of the present moment as described in the phenomenal term of "width of present". More specifically, I focus on the way the brain's neural activity needs to be encoded in order to make possible the "stream of consciousness." This leads us again to the low-frequency fluctuations of the brain's neural activity and more specifically to slow cortical potentials (SCPs). Due to their long phase duration as low-frequency fluctuations, SCPs can integrate different stimuli and their associated neural activity from different regions in one converging region. Such integration may be central for consciousness to occur, as it was recently postulated by He and Raichle. They leave open, however, the question of the exact neuronal mechanisms, like the encoding strategy, that make possible the association of the otherwise purely neuronal SCP with consciousness and its phenomenal features. I hypothesize that SCPs allow for linking and connecting different discrete points in physical time by encoding their statistically based temporal differences rather than the single discrete time points by themselves. This presupposes difference-based coding rather than stimulus-based coding. The encoding of such statistically based temporal differences makes it possible to "go beyond" the merely physical features of the stimuli; that is, their single discrete time points and their conduction delays (as related to their neural processing in the brain). This, in turn, makes possible the constitution of "local temporal continuity" of neural activity in one particular region. The concept of "local temporal continuity" signifies the linkage and integration of different discrete time points

Evaluation du risque de déstabilisation des infrastructures de haute montagne engendré par le réchauffement climatique dans les Alpes françaises

OpenAIRE

Duvillard, Pierre-Allain; Ravanel, Ludovic; Deline, Philip

2015-01-01

Dans le contexte du changement climatique actuel, les milieux de haute montagne sont soumis à de profonds bouleversements tels que la fonte des glaciers ou la dégradation du permafrost, à l’origine de mouvements de versant au sein des parois rocheuses comme des formations superficielles. Ces processus impliquent des risques directs de déstabilisation pour les infrastructures (refuges, remontées mécaniques, etc.). Dans un but de prévention de ces risques, un recensement des infrastructures de ...

Aérosols atmosphériques propriétés et impacts climatiques

CERN Document Server

Boucher, Olivier

2012-01-01

L’hypothèse d’une cause anthropique au réchauffement climatique est désormais considérée comme valide par la très grande majorité de la communauté scientifique. Les gaz à effet de serre ne sont toutefois pas les seuls facteurs de modification du climat. Le rôle des aérosols doit aussi être souligné : il est admis que ces derniers ont partiellement masqué le pouvoir réchauffant des gaz à effet de serre depuis le début de l’ère industrielle. Ils interagissent en outre fortement avec le cycle de l’eau et un certain nombre de cycles biogéochimiques. C’est l’ensemble de ces interactions – entre aérosols, rayonnement, cycle hydrologique, etc. – que ce livre propose de passer en revue. Après avoir décrit les principales propriétés physiques et chimiques des aérosols, le livre expose les principes de modélisation des aérosols à grande échelle ; il décrit ensuite la théorie du transfert radiatif dans l’atmosphère, les techniques de télédétection et d’observati...

Emotional sentience and the nature of phenomenal experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Kauffman, Katherine Peil

2015-12-01

When phenomenal experience is examined through the lens of physics, several conundrums come to light including: Specificity of mind-body interactions, feelings of free will in a deterministic universe, and the relativity of subjective perception. The new biology of "emotion" can shed direct light upon these issues, via a broadened categorical definition that includes both affective feelings and their coupled (yet often subconscious) hedonic motivations. In this new view, evaluative (good/bad) feelings that trigger approach/avoid behaviors emerged with life itself, a crude stimulus-response information loop between organism and its environment, a semiotic signaling system embodying the first crude form of "mind". Emotion serves the ancient function of sensory-motor self-regulation and affords organisms - at every level of complexity - an active, adaptive, role in evolution. A careful examination of the biophysics involved in emotional "self-regulatory" signaling, however, acknowledges constituents that are incompatible with classical physics. This requires a further investigation, proposed herein, of the fundamental nature of "the self" as the subjective observer central to the measurement process in quantum mechanics, and ultimately as an active, unified, self-awareness with a centrally creative role in "self-organizing" processes and physical forces of the classical world. In this deeper investigation, a new phenomenological dualism is proposed: The flow of complex human experience is instantiated by both a classically embodied mind and a deeper form of quantum consciousness that is inherent in the universe itself, implying much deeper - more Whiteheadian - interpretations of the "self-regulatory" and "self-relevant" nature of emotional stimulus. A broad stroke, speculative, intuitive sketch of this new territory is then set forth, loosely mapped to several theoretical models of consciousness, potentially relevant mathematical devices and pertinent philosophical

We see more than we can report: "cost free" color phenomenality outside focal attention.

Science.gov (United States)

Bronfman, Zohar Z; Brezis, Noam; Jacobson, Hilla; Usher, Marius

2014-07-01

The distinction between access consciousness and phenomenal consciousness is a subject of intensive debate. According to one view, visual experience overflows the capacity of the attentional and working memory system: We see more than we can report. According to the opposed view, this perceived richness is an illusion-we are aware only of information that we can subsequently report. This debate remains unresolved because of the inevitable reliance on report, which is limited in capacity. To bypass this limitation, this study utilized color diversity-a unique summary statistic-which is sensitive to detailed visual information. Participants were shown a Sperling-like array of colored letters, one row of which was precued. After reporting a letter from the cued row, participants estimated the color diversity of the noncued rows. Results showed that people could estimate the color diversity of the noncued array without a cost to letter report, which suggests that color diversity is registered automatically, outside focal attention, and without consuming additional working memory resources. © The Author(s) 2014.

L’équité au cœur des politiques climatiques : l’exemple des négociations relatives au climat et de la recherche de solutions à la crise énergétique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Loïc Aubrée

2011-02-01

Full Text Available L’article débat de la question de l’équité dans la lutte contre les changements climatiques. Il établit un parallèle entre le développement pris au niveau international de la négociation entre Etats d’une part, et la pauvreté au niveau d’une collectivité d’autre part. Dans les deux cas, il s’agit à la fois d’un principe moral essentiel, mais aussi d’une condition centrale des consensus et donc de la réussite des politiques face au défi climatique. La question de l’équité renvoie aussi très vite au changement nécessaire des modes de vie vers plus de sobriété.The article debates Equity Issues in the Climate Change debate is debated. A parallel is set between the development issues at the international level of negotiations between States, and poverty alleviation at the local community level. In both cases, the discussions stem from an essential moral principle, but also as a requisite for consensus and thus a condition of success of climate change policies to combat Climate Change. The issue of equity brings also forward the necessary modification of consumption patterns, into more frugal modes.

Perversities of Extreme Dependence and Unequal Growth in the TAR

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A.M. Fischer (Andrew Martín)

2007-01-01

textabstractThe official Chinese press recently came out with a series of articles reporting the latest statistics on the phenomenally rapid economic growth that has been taking place in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) since the mid-1990s through sheer force of Central Government subsidies.

Extreme climatic events: reducing ecological and social systems vulnerabilities; Evenements climatiques extremes: reduire les vulnerabilites des systemes ecologiques et sociaux

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Decamps, H.; Amatore, C.; Bach, J.F.; Baccelli, F.; Balian, R.; Carpentier, A.; Charnay, P.; Cuzin, F.; Davier, M.; Dercourt, J.; Dumas, C.; Encrenaz, P.; Jeannerod, M.; Kahane, J.P.; Meunier, B.; Rebut, P.H.; Salencon, J.; Spitz, E.; Suquet, P.; Taquet, P.; Valleron, A.J.; Yoccoz, J.C.; Chapron, J.Y.; Fanon, J.; Andre, J.C.; Auger, P.; Bourrelier, P.H.; Combes, C.; Derrida, B.; Laubier, L.; Laval, K.; Le Maho, Y.; Marsily, G. De; Petit, M.; Schmidt-Laine, C.; Birot, Y.; Peyron, J.L.; Seguin, B.; Barles, S.; Besancenot, J.P.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Hallegatte, S.; Dumas, P.; Ancey, V.; Requier-Desjardins, M.; Ducharnes, A.; Ciais, P.; Peylin, P.; Kaniewski, D.; Van Campo, E.; Planton, S.; Manuguerra, J.C.; Le Bars, Y.; Lagadec, P.; Kessler, D.; Pontikis, C.; Nussbaum, R.

2010-07-01

The Earth has to face more and more devastating extreme events. Between 1970 and 2009, at the worldwide scale, the 25 most costly catastrophes all took place after 1987, and for more than half of them after 2001. Among these 25 catastrophes, 23 were linked to climate conditions. France was not spared: the December 1999 storms led to 88 deaths, deprived 3.5 million households of electricity and costed more than 9 billion euros. The 2003 heat wave led to about 15000 supernumerary deaths between August 1 and August 20. The recent Xynthia storm, with its flood barrier ruptures, provoked 53 deaths in addition to many other tragedies that took place in areas liable to flooding. In the present day context of climate change, we know that we must be prepared to even more dangerous events, sometimes unexpected before. These events can have amplified effects because of the urban development, the overpopulation of coastal areas and the anthropization of natural environments. They represent real 'poverty traps' for the poorest countries of the Earth. The anticipation need is real but is our country ready to answer it? Does it have a sufficient contribution to international actions aiming at reducing risks? Is his scientific information suitable? France is not less vulnerable than other countries. It must reinforce its prevention, its response and resilience capacities in the framework of integrated policies of catastrophes risk management as well as in the framework of climate change adaptation plans. This reinforcement supposes the development of vigilance systems with a better risk coverage and benefiting by the advances gained in the meteorology and health domains. It supposes a town and country planning allowing to improve the viability of ecological and social systems - in particular by protecting their diversity. Finally, this reinforcement requires inciting financial coverage solutions for catastrophes prevention and for their management once they have taken

An evolution in listening: An analytical and critical study of structural, acoustic, and phenomenal aspects of selected works by Pauline Oliveros

Science.gov (United States)

Setar, Katherine Marie

1997-08-01

This dissertation analytically and critically examines composer Pauline Oliveros's philosophy of 'listening' as it applies to selected works created between 1961 and 1984. The dissertation is organized through the application of two criteria: three perspectives of listening (empirical, phenomenal, and, to a lesser extent, personal), and categories derived, in part, from her writings and interviews (improvisational, traditional, theatrical, electronic, meditational, and interactive). In general, Oliveros's works may be categorized by one of two listening perspectives. The 'empirical' listening perspective, which generally includes pure acoustic phenomenon, independent from human interpretation, is exemplified in the analyses of Sound Patterns (1961), OH HA AH (1968), and, to a lesser extent, I of IV (1966). The 'phenomenal' listening perspective, which involves the human interaction with the pure acoustic phenomenon, includes a critical examination of her post-1971 'meditation' pieces and an analytical and critical examination of her tonal 'interactive' improvisations in highly resonant space, such as Watertank Software (1984). The most pervasive element of Oliveros's stylistic evolution is her gradual change from the hierarchical aesthetic of the traditional composer, to one in which creative control is more equally shared by all participants. Other significant contributions by Oliveros include the probable invention of the 'meditation' genre, an emphasis on the subjective perceptions of musical participants as a means to greater musical awareness, her musical exploration of highly resonant space, and her pioneering work in American electronic music. Both analytical and critical commentary were applied to selective representative works from Oliveros's six compositional categories. The analytical methods applied to the Oliveros's works include Wayne Slawson's vowel/formant theory as described in his book, Sound Color, an original method of categorizing consonants as

Study of catalytic phenomena in radiation chemistry; Etude des phenomenes catalytiques en chimie des radiations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dran, J.C. [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

1965-01-01

Two phenomena have been studied: the action of {gamma} rays from radio-cobalt on the adsorption and catalytic properties of ZnO and NiO in. relationship with the heterogeneous oxidation of CO, and the homogeneous catalysis by OsO{sub 4} of the oxidation of various aqueous phase solutes by the same radiation. The prior irradiation of ZnO and of NiO does not modify their catalytic activity but generally increases the adsorption energy of -the gases CO and O{sub 2}. The influence of the radiations appears to be connected with the presence of traces of water on ZnO and of an excess of oxygen on NiO. Osmium tetroxide which is not degraded by irradiation in acid solution, accelerates the radiolytic oxidation of certain compounds (Te{sup IV}, Pt{sup 11}, As{sup 111}) in the presence of oxygen, as a result of its sensitizing effect on the oxidation by H{sub 2}O{sub 2}. In the case of phosphites on the other hand, OsO{sub 4} has a protecting action under certain conditions of acidity and may suppress entirely the chain reaction which characterizes the oxidation of this solute by{gamma} rays. A general mechanism is proposed for these phenomena. The rate constant for the OsO{sub 4} + HO{sub 2} reaction is calculated to be 5.7 x 10{sup 5} l.mol{sup -1}. sec{sup -1}. (author) [French] Deux phenomenes ont ete etudies: l'action des rayons {gamma} du radio-cobalt sur les proprietes adsorptives et catalytiques de ZnO et NiO en relation avec l'oxydation heterogene de CO et la catalyse homogene par OsO{sub 4} de l'oxydation de divers solutes en phase aqueuse par ce meme rayonnement. L'irradiation prealable de ZnO et de NiO n'a pas modifie leur activite catalytique, mais a generalement accru l'energie d'adsorption des gaz CO et O{sub 2}. L'influence des radiations semble liee a la presence de traces d'eau sur ZnO et d'un exces d'oxygene sur NiO. Le tetroxyde d'osmium qui n'est pas altere par le rayonnement en solution

Study of catalytic phenomena in radiation chemistry; Etude des phenomenes catalytiques en chimie des radiations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dran, J C [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

1965-01-01

Two phenomena have been studied: the action of {gamma} rays from radio-cobalt on the adsorption and catalytic properties of ZnO and NiO in. relationship with the heterogeneous oxidation of CO, and the homogeneous catalysis by OsO{sub 4} of the oxidation of various aqueous phase solutes by the same radiation. The prior irradiation of ZnO and of NiO does not modify their catalytic activity but generally increases the adsorption energy of -the gases CO and O{sub 2}. The influence of the radiations appears to be connected with the presence of traces of water on ZnO and of an excess of oxygen on NiO. Osmium tetroxide which is not degraded by irradiation in acid solution, accelerates the radiolytic oxidation of certain compounds (Te{sup IV}, Pt{sup 11}, As{sup 111}) in the presence of oxygen, as a result of its sensitizing effect on the oxidation by H{sub 2}O{sub 2}. In the case of phosphites on the other hand, OsO{sub 4} has a protecting action under certain conditions of acidity and may suppress entirely the chain reaction which characterizes the oxidation of this solute by{gamma} rays. A general mechanism is proposed for these phenomena. The rate constant for the OsO{sub 4} + HO{sub 2} reaction is calculated to be 5.7 x 10{sup 5} l.mol{sup -1}. sec{sup -1}. (author) [French] Deux phenomenes ont ete etudies: l'action des rayons {gamma} du radio-cobalt sur les proprietes adsorptives et catalytiques de ZnO et NiO en relation avec l'oxydation heterogene de CO et la catalyse homogene par OsO{sub 4} de l'oxydation de divers solutes en phase aqueuse par ce meme rayonnement. L'irradiation prealable de ZnO et de NiO n'a pas modifie leur activite catalytique, mais a generalement accru l'energie d'adsorption des gaz CO et O{sub 2}. L'influence des radiations semble liee a la presence de traces d'eau sur ZnO et d'un exces d'oxygene sur NiO. Le tetroxyde d'osmium qui n'est pas altere par le rayonnement en solution acide, accelere l'oxydation radiolytique de certains composes. (Te

Phenomenal characteristics associated with projecting oneself back into the past and forward into the future: influence of valence and temporal distance.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Van der Linden, Martial

2004-12-01

As humans, we frequently engage in mental time travel, reliving past experiences and imagining possible future events. This study examined whether similar factors affect the subjective experience associated with remembering the past and imagining the future. Participants mentally "re-experienced" or "pre-experienced" positive and negative events that differed in their temporal distance from the present (close versus distant), and then rated the phenomenal characteristics (i.e., sensorial, contextual, and emotional details) associated with their representations. For both past and future, representations of positive events were associated with a greater feeling of re-experiencing (or pre-experiencing) than representations of negative events. In addition, representations of temporally close events (both past and future) contained more sensorial and contextual details, and generated a stronger feeling of re-experiencing (or pre-experiencing) than representations of temporally distant events. It is suggested that the way we both remember our past and imagine our future is constrained by our current goals.

Boosting Your Baby's Brain Power

Science.gov (United States)

Engel-Smothers, Holly; Heim, Susan M.

2009-01-01

With more than 100 billion neurons that would stretch more than 60,000 miles, a newborn baby's brain is quite phenomenal! These neurons must generally form connections within the first eight months of a baby's life to foster optimal brain growth and lifelong learning. Mommies, daddies, and caregivers are extremely vital to ensuring babies reach…

Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

2013-12-01

We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

Mandelbrot's Extremism

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beirlant, J.; Schoutens, W.; Segers, J.J.J.

2004-01-01

In the sixties Mandelbrot already showed that extreme price swings are more likely than some of us think or incorporate in our models.A modern toolbox for analyzing such rare events can be found in the field of extreme value theory.At the core of extreme value theory lies the modelling of maxima

Résultats de recherche | Page 15 | CRDI - Centre de recherches ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Est, sont particulièrement vulnérables, à long terme, aux conséquences des changements climatiques et, à court terme, à la variabilité accrue du climat. Projet. -. Variabilité climatique, changements sociaux et dengue au Bangladesh. Depuis ...

Development of a method for studying non-linear phenomena in plasma; Mise au point d'une methode d'etude des phenomenes non lineaires dans un plasma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gonfalone, A [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

1965-03-01

The study of non-linear phenomena resulting from the interaction of powerful electro-magnetic waves with an electron gas is the basis of the p best methods for measuring the frequency of electronic collisions in the ionosphere. In laboratory plasma the appearance of these phenomena is connected with a powerful critical field. Although we have used a relatively low-power electromagnetic source, we have been able to develop a simple hyper-frequency method making it possible to study these phenomena to measure them and to put forward an elementary interpretation. An electromagnetic wave provided by a 1 watt klystron interacts with a HF discharge (25 MHz) in the volume of a TE{sub 111} cavity. The tube containing the discharge and the axis of the cylindrical cavity are co-linear with a magnetic field which can attain a value such that the wave frequency is equal to the gyromagnetic frequency of the electrons. The resonance curve for the cavity, which depends on the electronic density and the frequency of collisions, becomes increasingly dissymmetric as the absorbed power increases and as the gyromagnetic frequency of the electrons approaches that of the incident wave. By studying the resonance, it is possible to calculate the proportionality coefficients relating the density and collision frequency variations with the absorbed power. The experiments were carried out by causing the following to vary separately: the incident UHF power, the initial electronic density, the pressure of the neutral ambient gas, and the axial magnetic field. The variation in the electronic density as a function of the magnetic field for a high UHF power shows a resonance of dissymmetrical form, sometimes with a sharp peak in the neighbourhood of {omega}{sub H}. The possibility of applying these properties to the construction of practical devices, is under consideration. (author) [French] L'etude des phenomenes non lineaires dus a l'interaction d'ondes electro-magnetiques puissantes avec un

How extreme is extreme hourly precipitation?

Science.gov (United States)

Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Dialynas, Yannis G.; Pappas, Christoforos

2016-04-01

The importance of accurate representation of precipitation at fine time scales (e.g., hourly), directly associated with flash flood events, is crucial in hydrological design and prediction. The upper part of a probability distribution, known as the distribution tail, determines the behavior of extreme events. In general, and loosely speaking, tails can be categorized in two families: the subexponential and the hyperexponential family, with the first generating more intense and more frequent extremes compared to the latter. In past studies, the focus has been mainly on daily precipitation, with the Gamma distribution being the most popular model. Here, we investigate the behaviour of tails of hourly precipitation by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of thousands of records with three general types of tails corresponding to the Pareto, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions. Specifically, we use thousands of hourly rainfall records from all over the USA. The analysis indicates that heavier-tailed distributions describe better the observed hourly rainfall extremes in comparison to lighter tails. Traditional representations of the marginal distribution of hourly rainfall may significantly deviate from observed behaviours of extremes, with direct implications on hydroclimatic variables modelling and engineering design.

DOE natural phenomenal hazards design and evaluation criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murray, R.C.; Nelson, T.A.; Short, S.A.; Kennedy, R.P.; Chander, H.; Hill, J.R.; Kimball, J.K.

1994-10-01

It is the policy of the Department of Energy (DOE) to design, construct, and operate DOE facilities so that workers, the general public, and the environment are protected from the impacts of natural phenomena hazards (NPH). Furthermore, DOE has established explicit goals of acceptable risk for NPH performance. As a result, natural phenomena hazard (earthquake, extreme wind, and flood) design and evaluation criteria for DOE facilities have been developed based on target probabilistic performance goals. These criteria include selection of design/evaluation NPH input from probabilistic hazard curves combined with commonly practiced deterministic response evaluation methods and acceptance criteria with controlled levels of conservatism. For earthquake considerations, conservatism is intentionally introduced in specification of material strengths and capacities, in the allowance of limited inelastic behavior, and by a seismic scale factor. Criteria have been developed following a graded approach for several performance goals ranging from that appropriate for normal-use facilities to that appropriate for facilities involving hazardous or critical operations. Performance goals are comprised of qualitative expressions of acceptable behavior and of target quantitative probabilities that acceptable limits of behavior are maintained. The criteria are simple procedures but have a rigorous basis. This paper addresses DOE seismic design and evaluation criteria

Clinical application of lower extremity CTA and lower extremity perfusion CT as a method of diagnostic for lower extremity atherosclerotic obliterans

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moon, Il Bong; Dong, Kyung Rae [Dept. Radiological Technology, Gwangju Health University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Goo, Eun Hoe [Dept. Radiological Science, Cheongju University, Cheongju (Korea, Republic of)

2016-11-15

The purpose of this study was to assess clinical application of lower extremity CTA and lower extremity perfusion CT as a method of diagnostic for lower extremity atherosclerotic obliterans. From January to July 2016, 30 patients (mean age, 68) were studied with lower extremity CTA and lower extremity perfusion CT. 128 channel multi-detector row CT scans were acquired with a CT scanner (SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens medical solution, Germany) of lower extremity perfusion CT and lower extremity CTA. Acquired images were reconstructed with 3D workstation (Leonardo, Siemens, Germany). Site of lower extremity arterial occlusive and stenosis lesions were detected superficial femoral artery 36.6%, popliteal artery 23.4%, external iliac artery 16.7%, common femoral artery 13.3%, peroneal artery 10%. The mean total DLP comparison of lower extremity perfusion CT and lower extremity CTA, 650 mGy-cm and 675 mGy-cm, respectively. Lower extremity perfusion CT and lower extremity CTA were realized that were never be two examination that were exactly the same legions. Future through the development of lower extremity perfusion CT soft ware programs suggest possible clinical applications.

12 Layout ppp2

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Nubidga

Climatiques en Zone Soudano-Sahélienne : Cas De Mogode, Extrême-Nord. Cameroun. DJAKOU ... climatique majeurs affectant l'eau dans la zone d'étude. Les inondations détruisent les .... zone soudano-sahélienne. L'objectif global est de.

Thermodynamics of extremal rotating thin shells in an extremal BTZ spacetime and the extremal black hole entropy

Science.gov (United States)

Lemos, José P. S.; Minamitsuji, Masato; Zaslavskii, Oleg B.

2017-02-01

In a (2 +1 )-dimensional spacetime with a negative cosmological constant, the thermodynamics and the entropy of an extremal rotating thin shell, i.e., an extremal rotating ring, are investigated. The outer and inner regions with respect to the shell are taken to be the Bañados-Teitelbom-Zanelli (BTZ) spacetime and the vacuum ground state anti-de Sitter spacetime, respectively. By applying the first law of thermodynamics to the extremal thin shell, one shows that the entropy of the shell is an arbitrary well-behaved function of the gravitational area A+ alone, S =S (A+). When the thin shell approaches its own gravitational radius r+ and turns into an extremal rotating BTZ black hole, it is found that the entropy of the spacetime remains such a function of A+, both when the local temperature of the shell at the gravitational radius is zero and nonzero. It is thus vindicated by this analysis that extremal black holes, here extremal BTZ black holes, have different properties from the corresponding nonextremal black holes, which have a definite entropy, the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy S (A+)=A/+4G , where G is the gravitational constant. It is argued that for extremal black holes, in particular for extremal BTZ black holes, one should set 0 ≤S (A+)≤A/+4G;i.e., the extremal black hole entropy has values in between zero and the maximum Bekenstein-Hawking entropy A/+4 G . Thus, rather than having just two entropies for extremal black holes, as previous results have debated, namely, 0 and A/+4 G , it is shown here that extremal black holes, in particular extremal BTZ black holes, may have a continuous range of entropies, limited by precisely those two entropies. Surely, the entropy that a particular extremal black hole picks must depend on past processes, notably on how it was formed. A remarkable relation between the third law of thermodynamics and the impossibility for a massive body to reach the velocity of light is also found. In addition, in the procedure, it

Extreme value distributions

CERN Document Server

Ahsanullah, Mohammad

2016-01-01

The aim of the book is to give a through account of the basic theory of extreme value distributions. The book cover a wide range of materials available to date. The central ideas and results of extreme value distributions are presented. The book rwill be useful o applied statisticians as well statisticians interrested to work in the area of extreme value distributions.vmonograph presents the central ideas and results of extreme value distributions.The monograph gives self-contained of theory and applications of extreme value distributions.

Managers facing the climatic risks; Les elus face aux risques climatiques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2003-07-01

This colloquium aimed to analyze the relations between the climatic changes and extreme meteorological events and on the associated risks. It provides information and knowledge on the state of the art concerning the today scientific knowledge, the prevention measures and the adaptation facing the risks and the difficult estimation of the climatic damages costs. (A.L.B.)

1133-IJBCS-Article-Dr Benoit Sarr

African Journals Online (AJOL)

DR GATSING

Identification des risques climatiques de la culture du maïs au Burkina Faso. Benoît SARR *, Luc ... La culture est sensible aux aléas climatiques liés à la variabilité et aux extrêmes ...... daily rainfall principal component analysis to the ...

Extremely Preterm Birth

Science.gov (United States)

... Events Advocacy For Patients About ACOG Extremely Preterm Birth Home For Patients Search FAQs Extremely Preterm Birth ... Spanish FAQ173, June 2016 PDF Format Extremely Preterm Birth Pregnancy When is a baby considered “preterm” or “ ...

Comprendre les obstacles à la paix dans la région des Grands Lacs ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Intégration régionale, commerce et essor du secteur privé (Namibie ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Building a New South Africa Volume 4 : Environment ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Production et commercialisation durables de l'indigo au Salvador ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Protection sociale et travailleurs pauvres en Égypte | CRDI - Centre ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Soutien institutionnel à l'Ethiopian Development Research Institute ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Synthèse et diffusion de résultats de recherche à l'échelle régionale ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Soutien institutionnel à l'Initiative prospective agricole et rurale ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Croissance de l'emploi dans le secteur manufacturier (structuré et ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Compréhension des traumatismes et du processus de réconciliation ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Soutien institutionnel à l'Institute for Policy Analysis and Research ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Site d'enfouissement de Mbeubeuss : Étude de l'impact sur la santé ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Les technologies de l'information et de la communication au service ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Renforcement de la recherche sur les politiques et du plaidoyer ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Réduction de la pauvreté par le truchement du développement du ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Bourse de recherche postdoctorale sur l'Amérique centrale et les ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Voie d'acheminement de contenu et de services (telecentre.org ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Subventions à la mobilité bilatérale Canada-Afrique du Sud pour les ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Sécurité alimentaire, soins adéquats et environnement (Tanzanie et ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Stratégies de lutte antitabac à Maurice | CRDI - Centre de ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Crise financière mondiale et vulnérabilité au Cambodge | CRDI ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Soutien institutionnel au Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Envois de fonds vers les zones de conflit - le cas de la diaspora ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Réseau d'universités et de conseils pour l'innovation au service du ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Atténuation des risques pour la santé dans le secteur de la poterie ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Raúl Prebisch et les défis du XXIe siècle | CRDI - Centre de ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Security Sector Reform in the Arab Region | CRDI - Centre de ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Building a New South Africa Volume 3 : Science and Technology ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Créer un conseil arabe des sciences sociales | CRDI - Centre de ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Innovations pour améliorer les vaccins pour le bétail | CRDI - Centre ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Programme des cycles supérieurs et de recherche en études sur les ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Soutien institutionnel de l'Institute of Social Studies Trust | CRDI ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Conflit armé en Colombie : différentes ressources, différents conflits ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Punto J : portail d'information sur la santé et le VIH/sida par et pour les

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Nouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau. L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire ...

Extreme environment electronics

CERN Document Server

Cressler, John D

2012-01-01

Unfriendly to conventional electronic devices, circuits, and systems, extreme environments represent a serious challenge to designers and mission architects. The first truly comprehensive guide to this specialized field, Extreme Environment Electronics explains the essential aspects of designing and using devices, circuits, and electronic systems intended to operate in extreme environments, including across wide temperature ranges and in radiation-intense scenarios such as space. The Definitive Guide to Extreme Environment Electronics Featuring contributions by some of the world's foremost exp

Nouveaux centres de cyberpolitique pour les pays du Sud | CRDI ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

13 avr. 2018 ... L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau ...

Lancement de l'appel des bourses du CRDI aux chercheurs ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

4 avr. 2018 ... L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau ...

Lancement de l'appel de la bourse John G. Bene 2018 | CRDI ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

16 avr. 2018 ... L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau ...

Digital Review of Asia Pacific 2007–2008 | CRDI - Centre de ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

7 janv. 2008 ... L'Association internationale de ressources en eau (IWRA), en étroite collaboration avec le CRDI, organise un webinaire intitulé "Changements climatiques et gestion adaptive de l'eau: des... Voir davantageNouveau webinaire IWRA/CRDI sur les changements climatiques et la gestion adaptive de l'eau ...

Atlas du réchauffement climatique 1971-2010. Publié par Physio-Géo - collection Ouvrages, 2012, 122 p.En ligne sur : http://www.physio-geo.fr (onglet "Ouvrages".

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jean-Claude Flageollet

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Cet atlas présente le réchauffement climatique récent, de 1971 à 2010, dans les terres émergées continentales et océaniques découpées en 39 régions dont, pour certaines d'entre elles, les limites sont proches des limites des régions climatiques du globe telles que définies et tracées par exemple par KÖPPEN et GEIGER. Les températures utilisées sont les moyennes annuelles empruntées à la base de données "Gistemp" de la NASA, complétées par calcul et par station. Dans chaque région, sont représentées graphiquement l'évolution des températures annuelles, selon l'environnement des stations, rural, urbain ou intermédiaire, ainsi que la valeur du réchauffement, par périodes pluri annuelles et décennales. En outre, les stations, classées en deux catégories en comparant leurs températures de 2009 et 2010, sont localisées sur des cartes à l'échelle de chaque continent. Quatre cartes régionales du réchauffement sont produites pour les périodes 1971-2010, 1981-2010, 1991-2010 et 2001­2010. Elles permettent de distinguer les régions en réchauffement et les régions en refroidissement, ces dernières concernant principalement les deux dernières décennies.This atlas presents the recent warming, from 1971 to 2010, in the continental and oceanic earth's land surface, divided into 39 regions which, for some of them, the limits are close to the earth's climatic regions defined and delineated by KÖPPEN and GEIGER. The temperatures used are annual averages taken from the "Gistemp" data base of the NASA, supplemented by calculation and by station. In each region, graphs and diagrams represent the evolution of annual temperatures as well as pluri-annual, decadal and multi decadal periods of warming, depending on the environment of stations: rural, urban or intermediate. In addition, the stations, divided into two categories by comparing their temperatures of 2009 and 2010, are located on each continent-scale maps. Four

: tous les projets | Page 195 | CRDI - Centre de recherches pour le ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Programme: Food, Environment, and Health. Financement total : CA$ 2,411,000.00. Changements climatiques, vulnérabilité et santé en Colombie et en Bolivie. Projet. Selon le quatrième rapport d'évaluation du Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat, les changements climatiques modifient les ...

Ghana : tous les projets | Page 3 | CRDI - Centre de recherches pour ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Programme: Alimentation, environnement et santé. Financement total : CA$ 62,000.00. Recherche et renforcement des capacités au chapitre de l'adaptation aux changements climatiques au Ghana. Projet. L'Afrique subsaharienne est la région la plus gravement touchée par les changements climatiques; or, elle dispose ...

Extreme cosmos

CERN Document Server

Gaensler, Bryan

2011-01-01

The universe is all about extremes. Space has a temperature 270°C below freezing. Stars die in catastrophic supernova explosions a billion times brighter than the Sun. A black hole can generate 10 million trillion volts of electricity. And hypergiants are stars 2 billion kilometres across, larger than the orbit of Jupiter. Extreme Cosmos provides a stunning new view of the way the Universe works, seen through the lens of extremes: the fastest, hottest, heaviest, brightest, oldest, densest and even the loudest. This is an astronomy book that not only offers amazing facts and figures but also re

Further outlooks: extremely uncomfortable; Die weiteren Aussichten: extrem ungemuetlich

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Resenhoeft, T.

2006-07-01

Climate is changing extremely in the last decades. Scientists dealing with extreme weather, should not only stare at computer simulations. They have also to turn towards psyche, seriously personal experiences, knowing statistics, relativise supposed sensational reports and last not least collecting more data. (GL)

Scale interactions in economics: application to the evaluation of the economic damages of climatic change and of extreme events; Interactions d'echelles en economie: application a l'evaluation des dommages economiques du changement climatique et des evenements extremes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hallegatte, S

2005-06-15

Growth models, which neglect economic disequilibria, considered as temporary, are in general used to evaluate the damaging effects generated by climatic change. This work shows, through a series of modeling experiences, the importance of disequilibria and of endogenous variability of economy in the evaluation of damages due to extreme events and climatic change. It demonstrates the impossibility to separate the evaluation of damages from the representation of growth and of economic dynamics: the comfort losses will depend on both the nature and intensity of impacts and on the dynamics and situation of the economy to which they will apply. Thus, the uncertainties about the damaging effects of future climatic changes come from both scientific uncertainties and from uncertainties about the future organization of our economies. (J.S.)

Legacies from extreme drought increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, M. D.; Knapp, A.; Hoover, D. L.; Avolio, M. L.; Felton, A. J.; Wilcox, K. R.

2016-12-01

Climate extremes, such as drought, are increasing in frequency and intensity, and the ecological consequences of these extreme events can be substantial and widespread. Although there is still much to be learned about how ecosystems will respond to an intensification of drought, even less is known about the factors that determine post-drought recovery of ecosystem function. Such knowledge is particularly important because post-drought recovery periods can be protracted depending on the extent to which key plant populations, community structure and biogeochemical processes are affected. These drought legacies may alter ecosystem function for many years post-drought and may impact future sensitivity to climate extremes. We experimentally imposed two extreme growing season droughts in a central US grassland to assess the impacts of repeated droughts on ecosystem resistance (response) and resilience (recovery). We found that this grassland was not resistant to the first extreme drought due to reduced productivity and differential sensitivity of the co-dominant C4 grass (Andropogon gerardii) and C3 forb (Solidago canadensis) species. This differential sensitivity led to a reordering of species abundances within the plant community. Yet, despite this large shift in plant community composition, which persisted post-drought, the grassland was highly resilient post-drought, due to increased abundance of the dominant C4 grass. Because of this shift to increased C4 grass dominance, we expected that previously-droughted grassland would be more resistant to a second extreme drought. However, contrary to these expectations, previously droughted grassland was more sensitive to drought than grassland that had not experienced drought. Thus, our result suggest that legacies of drought (shift in community composition) may increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extreme events.

: tous les projets | Page 59 | CRDI - Centre de recherches pour le ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Ce projet formera jusqu'à 36 nouveaux leaders en matière de changements climatiques dans le domaine du financement de l'adaptation, qui soutient les efforts visant à s'adapter aux répercussions des changements climatiques. Région: North of Sahara, South of Sahara, Central Asia, Far East Asia, South Asia, North and ...

Résultats de recherche | Page 12 | CRDI - Centre de recherches ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Les modèles climatiques ont démontré que, même si l'on observe une réduction considérable des émissions de gaz à effet de serre à l'échelle mondiale, les répercussions néfastes du réchauffement climatique planétaire continueront de se fa. Projet ...

Gestion de la leishmaniose en Tunisie dans le contexte des

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

On admet généralement que les changements climatiques auront des répercussions considérables sur la santé humaine : ils augmenteront les catastrophes climatiques et changeront la distribution des maladies transmises par l'eau et par d'autres vecteurs. Toutefois, les efforts que nous déployons pour nous adapter aux ...

Résultats de recherche | Page 450 | CRDI - Centre de recherches ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Changements climatiques (403) Apply Changements climatiques filter · Gouvernance et justice (373) Apply Gouvernance et justice filter · Emploi et croissance (329) Apply Emploi et croissance filter · Santé des mères et des enfants (312) Apply Santé des mères et des enfants filter · Alimentation, environnement et santé ...

La recherche pour relever les défis mondiaux : neuvième ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2 janv. 2018 ... Les chercheurs qui ont participé à ce projet ont travaillé avec les négociateurs internationaux du changement climatique à une proposition visant à faire inclure l'agriculture dans l'Accord de Paris sur le changement climatique. Cette proposition a été acceptée une semaine seulement avant l'Assemblé ...

Coopération entre milieux ruraux et urbains dans la gestion de l'eau ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Coopération entre milieux ruraux et urbains dans la gestion de l'eau face aux changements climatiques au Burkina Faso. Les villes dépendent fortement des milieux ruraux qui leur assurent un apport en produits alimentaires, en eau et en matières premières. Les changements climatiques, en augmentant la fréquence des ...

Inde | Page 73 | CRDI - Centre de recherches pour le ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Entretien avec…propose des entrevues vidéos avec des chercheurs participant à des projets portant sur l'adaptation aux changements climatiques réalisés en Afrique, en Asie ainsi qu'en Amérique latine et dans les Caraïbes que le CRDI subventionne par le truchement de son programme Changements climatiques et eau ...

Changements climatiques au Maroc: quels systèmes de culture et quelles biotechnologies pour s’y adapter ?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdelhadi AIT HOUSSA

2017-09-01

scale use of seawater in agriculture or finding new salinity tolerant cultivars. In Morocco, we should think of desalinization with renewable energies (solar, wind and the use of this water mainly in coastal areas where climate, land quality, sun and wind are adequate to these projects. To anticipate the future of food security of the country, attention should be given to the use of readily available resources to overcome the structural deficit in wheat starch and animal protein. The study suggests the use of other starch sources that Morocco can produce easily such as potato. For animal protein, we suggest fisheries resources which are still underused by the population. Résumé On présente une étude prospective concernant l’impact probable des changements climatiques sur les systèmes de culture et d’élevage au Maroc. D’après le constat de terrain et dans les limites de ce que signifie ce genre d’étude, l’effet direct du réchauffement climatique peut conduire à terme (et c’est déjà le cas dans certaines contrées à la nécessité d’une redistribution variétale pour des espèces exigeantes en froid comme les rosacées. Des variétés de pomme, telle que le groupe des Golden, risquent de disparaître des montagnes pour laisser la place à d’autres moins exigeantes comme le groupe des Gala. Le bananier et l’avocatier risquent de migrer vers les régions un peu plus continentales, l’olivier et les agrumes un peu plus vers le pied de la montagne. Le réchauffement climatique peut aussi obliger à faire évoluer les systèmes d’élevage et de culture en faisant déplacer la frontière de la sécheresse un peu plus vers le centre et le nord du pays; l’aride serait peut-être envahi par la désertification, le semi-aride passerait en partie à l’étage aride et le Bour dit favorable en partie dans le semi-aride. Comme corollaire à ce changement, il faudrait s’attendre à une perte de potentiel de ressources en eau qui obligerait

Global patterns of NDVI-indicated vegetation extremes and their sensitivity to climate extremes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Guo; Liu Hongyan; Yin Yi

2013-01-01

Extremes in climate have significant impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase under future climate change. Extremes in vegetation could capture such impacts and indicate the vulnerability of ecosystems, but currently have not received a global long-term assessment. In this study, a robust method has been developed to detect significant extremes (low values) in biweekly time series of global normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2006 and thus to acquire a global pattern of vegetation extreme frequency. This pattern coincides with vegetation vulnerability patterns suggested by earlier studies using different methods over different time spans, indicating a consistent mechanism of regulation. Vegetation extremes were found to aggregate in Amazonia and in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions in low and middle latitudes, while they seldom occurred in high latitudes. Among the environmental variables studied, extreme low precipitation has the highest slope against extreme vegetation. For the eight biomes analyzed, these slopes are highest in temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland, suggesting a higher sensitivity in these environments. The results presented here contradict the hypothesis that vegetation in water-limited semi-arid and semi-humid regions might be adapted to drought and suggest that vegetation in these regions (especially temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland) is highly prone to vegetation extreme events under more severe precipitation extremes. It is also suggested here that more attention be paid to precipitation-induced vegetation changes than to temperature-induced events. (letter)

Développer le leadership dans des villes de l'Amérique latine et des ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Développer le leadership dans des villes de l'Amérique latine et des Caraïbes dans le contexte des changements climatiques. En raison des changements climatiques, de la croissance démographique et de l'urbanisation rapide non planifiée, les villes des pays en développement sont à la fois le principal déclencheur des ...

Gestion des ressources hydriques dans un contexte de ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Gestion des ressources hydriques dans un contexte de changements climatiques dans des établissements humains côtiers en Angola. Durant la guerre civile angolaise, de très nombreux habitants des zones de conflit en milieu rural se sont déplacés vers des endroits vulnérables aux phénomènes climatiques extrêmes, ...

Water as a Human Right for the Middle East and North Africa | CRDI ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

11 juil. 2008 ... Le CRDI investit dans des solutions locales aux problèmes auxquels l'Inde est confrontée, comme le stress thermique, la gestion de l'eau et les migrations liées aux changements climatiques. Voir davantage Le CRDI aide l'Inde à s'adapter aux changements climatiques au moyen de données probantes, ...

Study of the dispersion phenomena connected with the absorption by recoilless nuclear resonance fluorescence; Etude des phenomenes de dispersion lies a l'absorption resonnante sans recul des noyaux atomiques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Imbert, P [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

1965-12-01

In nuclear resonance fluorescence as in the optical field abnormal dispersion curves are related to the absorption lines. It is possible, by using quadrupolar or magnetic splitting of the line in the case of recoilless resonance fluorescence (Moessbauer effect) to obtain differential dispersion effects between the two orthogonal linear or the two inverse circular components of the incident gamma radiation. These effects induce bi-refraction phenomena or Faraday rotation on the gamma beam, which have been studied on Fe-57 enriched absorbers. (author) [French] Comme dans le domaine optique, aux raies d'absorption de fluorescence resonnante des noyaux atomiques sont associees des courbes de dispersion anormale. Les decompositions des raies d'absorption de fluorescence resonnante sans recul (raies Moessbauer) par couplage quadrupolaire ou effet Zeeman permettent d'obtenir des effets dispersifs differentiels entre composantes lineaires orthogonales ou circulaires inverses du rayonnement gamma incident. Ces effets se traduisent par des phenomenes de birefringence ou de rotation Faraday, qui ont pu etre etudies sur des milieux enrichis en fer-57. (auteur)

Early warnings of extreme winds using the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index

OpenAIRE

Petroliagis, Thomas I.; Pinson, Pierre

2014-01-01

The European FP7 SafeWind Project aims at developing research towards a European vision of wind power forecasting, which requires advanced meteorological support concerning extreme wind events. This study is focused mainly on early warnings of extreme winds in the early medium-range. Three synoptic stations (airports) of North Germany (Bremen, Hamburg and Hannover) were considered for the construction of time series of daily maximum wind speeds. All daily wind extremes were found to be linked...

Extreme meteorological conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Altinger de Schwarzkopf, M.L.

1983-01-01

Different meteorological variables which may reach significant extreme values, such as the windspeed and, in particular, its occurrence through tornadoes and hurricanes that necesarily incide and wich must be taken into account at the time of nuclear power plants' installation, are analyzed. For this kind of study, it is necessary to determine the basic phenomenum of design. Two criteria are applied to define the basic values of design for extreme meteorological variables. The first one determines the expected extreme value: it is obtained from analyzing the recurence of the phenomenum in a convened period of time, wich may be generally of 50 years. The second one determines the extreme value of low probability, taking into account the nuclear power plant's operating life -f.ex. 25 years- and considering, during said lapse, the occurrence probabilities of extreme meteorological phenomena. The values may be determined either by the deterministic method, which is based on the acknowledgement of the fundamental physical characteristics of the phenomena or by the probabilistic method, that aims to the analysis of historical statistical data. Brief comments are made on the subject in relation to the Argentine Republic area. (R.J.S.) [es

Reduction de la sensation des malaises thermiques: determination ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

La présente étude a pour objet de contribuer à la réduction de la sensation des malaises thermiques à travers la recherche des orientations préférentielles des bâtiments dans les différentes zones du Togo à partir des conditions aérodynamiques et climatiques locales. Les données climatiques à savoir la température, ...

Early warnings of extreme winds using the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petroliagis, Thomas I.; Pinson, Pierre

2014-01-01

The European FP7 SafeWind Project aims at developing research towards a European vision of wind power forecasting, which requires advanced meteorological support concerning extreme wind events. This study is focused mainly on early warnings of extreme winds in the early medium-range. Three synoptic...... regimes. Overall, it becomes clear that the first indications of an extreme wind event might come from the ECMWF deterministic and/or probabilistic components capturing very intense weather systems (possible windstorms) in the medium term. For early warnings, all available EPS Extreme Forecast Index (EFI......) formulations were used, by linking daily maximum wind speeds to EFI values for different forecast horizons. From all possible EFI schemes deployed for issuing early warnings, the highest skill was found for the Gust Factor formulation (EFI-10FGI). Using EFI-10FGI, the corresponding 99% threshold could provide...

Optimization with Extremal Dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boettcher, Stefan; Percus, Allon G.

2001-01-01

We explore a new general-purpose heuristic for finding high-quality solutions to hard discrete optimization problems. The method, called extremal optimization, is inspired by self-organized criticality, a concept introduced to describe emergent complexity in physical systems. Extremal optimization successively updates extremely undesirable variables of a single suboptimal solution, assigning them new, random values. Large fluctuations ensue, efficiently exploring many local optima. We use extremal optimization to elucidate the phase transition in the 3-coloring problem, and we provide independent confirmation of previously reported extrapolations for the ground-state energy of ±J spin glasses in d=3 and 4

Scale interactions in economics: application to the evaluation of the economic damages of climatic change and of extreme events; Interactions d'echelles en economie: application a l'evaluation des dommages economiques du changement climatique et des evenements extremes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hallegatte, S

2005-06-15

Growth models, which neglect economic disequilibria, considered as temporary, are in general used to evaluate the damaging effects generated by climatic change. This work shows, through a series of modeling experiences, the importance of disequilibria and of endogenous variability of economy in the evaluation of damages due to extreme events and climatic change. It demonstrates the impossibility to separate the evaluation of damages from the representation of growth and of economic dynamics: the comfort losses will depend on both the nature and intensity of impacts and on the dynamics and situation of the economy to which they will apply. Thus, the uncertainties about the damaging effects of future climatic changes come from both scientific uncertainties and from uncertainties about the future organization of our economies. (J.S.)

IMFREX impact of the anthropic changes on the frequency of the extreme phenomena of the wind, the temperature and the rainfall. Final report; Imfrex impact des changements anthropiques sur la frequence des phenomenes extremes de vent de temperature et de precipitations. Rapport final

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

The aim of Imfrex was to evaluate the impact of a climatic change on the frequency of extreme phenomena of wind and rainfall in France. The study is based on an hypothesis proposed by the GIEC and called scenario A2. A first simulation, low resolution 300 km, using a coupled model ocean-atmosphere allowed to provide an evolution scenario for the temperature of the sea surface and the ice field area. A second simulation, high resolution 50 km, provided a daily evolution of the climate during 140 years. Imfrex was organized in five work-packages: the constitution of the data base, the validation of the models, the direct approach the statistical approach and the dynamical approach. (A.L.B.)

Ideologies and Discourses: Extreme Narratives in Extreme Metal Music

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bojana Radovanović

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Historically speaking, metal music has always been about provoking a strong reaction. Depending on the characteristics of different sub-genres, one can focus on the sound, technique, visual appearance, and furthermore, the ideologies and ideas that are the foundation for each of the sub-genres. Although the majority of the metal community rejects accusations of being racially intolerant, some ideologies of extreme sub-genres (such as black metal are in fact formed around the ideas of self-conscious elitism expressed through interest in pagan mythology, racism, Nazism and fascism. There has been much interest in the Nazi era within the extreme metal scene thus influencing other sub-genres and artists. The aim of this paper is to examine various appearances of extreme narratives such as Nazism and racism in  different sub-genres of metal, bearing in mind variations dependent on geographical, political, and other factors.

Extremal surface barriers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Engelhardt, Netta; Wall, Aron C.

2014-01-01

We present a generic condition for Lorentzian manifolds to have a barrier that limits the reach of boundary-anchored extremal surfaces of arbitrary dimension. We show that any surface with nonpositive extrinsic curvature is a barrier, in the sense that extremal surfaces cannot be continuously deformed past it. Furthermore, the outermost barrier surface has nonnegative extrinsic curvature. Under certain conditions, we show that the existence of trapped surfaces implies a barrier, and conversely. In the context of AdS/CFT, these barriers imply that it is impossible to reconstruct the entire bulk using extremal surfaces. We comment on the implications for the firewall controversy

Résumé sur l'eau : Une stratégie adaptive au changement ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

4 janv. 2011 ... Historiquement parlant, le climat de la Terre a changé plusieurs fois et plusieurs événements climatiques se sont succédés au fil des âges, tels que des périodes glaciaires et de longues périodes de réchauffement. Les changements climatiques sont dûs à de causes variées, tant naturelles qu'humaines.

Etude de l'effet de la date de semis et de l'Age des plantules au

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Les périmètres irrigués villageois (PIV) sont utilisés pour atténuer les effets néfastes des changements climatiques. Les variétés cultivées dans les PIV sont d'origine asiatique et souffrent des conditions agro climatiques des régions nord du Mali. Les expérimentations ont été conduites en milieu paysan dans les. PIV de ...

Statistics of Extremes

KAUST Repository

Davison, Anthony C.

2015-04-10

Statistics of extremes concerns inference for rare events. Often the events have never yet been observed, and their probabilities must therefore be estimated by extrapolation of tail models fitted to available data. Because data concerning the event of interest may be very limited, efficient methods of inference play an important role. This article reviews this domain, emphasizing current research topics. We first sketch the classical theory of extremes for maxima and threshold exceedances of stationary series. We then review multivariate theory, distinguishing asymptotic independence and dependence models, followed by a description of models for spatial and spatiotemporal extreme events. Finally, we discuss inference and describe two applications. Animations illustrate some of the main ideas. © 2015 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

Moving in extreme environments: what's extreme and who decides?

Science.gov (United States)

Cotter, James David; Tipton, Michael J

2014-01-01

Humans work, rest and play in immensely varied extreme environments. The term 'extreme' typically refers to insufficiency or excess of one or more stressors, such as thermal energy or gravity. Individuals' behavioural and physiological capacity to endure and enjoy such environments varies immensely. Adverse effects of acute exposure to these environments are readily identifiable (e.g. heat stroke or bone fracture), whereas adverse effects of chronic exposure (e.g. stress fractures or osteoporosis) may be as important but much less discernable. Modern societies have increasingly sought to protect people from such stressors and, in that way, minimise their adverse effects. Regulations are thus established, and advice is provided on what is 'acceptable' exposure. Examples include work/rest cycles in the heat, hydration regimes, rates of ascent to and duration of stay at altitude and diving depth. While usually valuable and well intentioned, it is important to realise the breadth and importance of limitations associated with such guidelines. Regulations and advisories leave less room for self-determination, learning and perhaps adaptation. Regulations based on stress (e.g. work/rest cycles relative to WBGT) are more practical but less direct than those based on strain (e.g. core temperature), but even the latter can be substantively limited (e.g. by lack of criterion validation and allowance for behavioural regulation in the research on which they are based). Extreme Physiology & Medicine is publishing a series of reviews aimed at critically examining the issues involved with self- versus regulation-controlled human movement acutely and chronically in extreme environments. These papers, arising from a research symposium in 2013, are about the impact of people engaging in such environments and the effect of rules and guidelines on their safety, enjoyment, autonomy and productivity. The reviews will cover occupational heat stress, sporting heat stress, hydration, diving

Revisiting Phenomenal Intentionality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farid Masrour

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This essay has two goals. The goal of the first section is to raise a few clarificatory questions about the exact contour of Crane’s account of intentionality, its relation to phenomenology, and his motivation for it. The second section aims to describe a general worry about programs that combine a broadly anti-externalist outlook on intentionality with the idea that there is an intimate connection between phenomenology and intentionality. I argue that programs like this either suffer from a problem that I call intentional luck or, in the attempt to avoid this problem, have to weaken the connection between intentionality and phenomenology. Since Crane’s general outlook falls under this program, it is subject to this worry.

Evolution caused by extreme events.

Science.gov (United States)

Grant, Peter R; Grant, B Rosemary; Huey, Raymond B; Johnson, Marc T J; Knoll, Andrew H; Schmitt, Johanna

2017-06-19

Extreme events can be a major driver of evolutionary change over geological and contemporary timescales. Outstanding examples are evolutionary diversification following mass extinctions caused by extreme volcanism or asteroid impact. The evolution of organisms in contemporary time is typically viewed as a gradual and incremental process that results from genetic change, environmental perturbation or both. However, contemporary environments occasionally experience strong perturbations such as heat waves, floods, hurricanes, droughts and pest outbreaks. These extreme events set up strong selection pressures on organisms, and are small-scale analogues of the dramatic changes documented in the fossil record. Because extreme events are rare, almost by definition, they are difficult to study. So far most attention has been given to their ecological rather than to their evolutionary consequences. We review several case studies of contemporary evolution in response to two types of extreme environmental perturbations, episodic (pulse) or prolonged (press). Evolution is most likely to occur when extreme events alter community composition. We encourage investigators to be prepared for evolutionary change in response to rare events during long-term field studies.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Likelihood estimators for multivariate extremes

KAUST Repository

Huser, Raphaë l; Davison, Anthony C.; Genton, Marc G.

2015-01-01

The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of componentwise maxima, high threshold exceedances or point processes, yielding different but related asymptotic characterizations and estimators. The present paper clarifies the connections between the main likelihood estimators, and assesses their practical performance. We investigate their ability to estimate the extremal dependence structure and to predict future extremes, using exact calculations and simulation, in the case of the logistic model.

Likelihood estimators for multivariate extremes

KAUST Repository

Huser, Raphaël

2015-11-17

The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of componentwise maxima, high threshold exceedances or point processes, yielding different but related asymptotic characterizations and estimators. The present paper clarifies the connections between the main likelihood estimators, and assesses their practical performance. We investigate their ability to estimate the extremal dependence structure and to predict future extremes, using exact calculations and simulation, in the case of the logistic model.

Climate disturbance and water resources; Dereglement climatique et ressources en eau

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nguyen, Tien-Duc

2012-01-01

The worldwide multiplication of extreme climatic events (heat waves, dryness, floods, storms..) and their impact on the precious water resources raises the question of climate change: is it a reality, are the consequences already visible, should we urgently take care of it, and if so who actually takes care of it and how? This books makes a comprehensive overview of our knowledge about these questions, in a relevant and pedagogical way. Solutions to contain the climate boom risk exist and are based on the shared solidarity and responsibility. They require a strong involvement of the entire international community and their implementation has to run counter to the traditional opposition between developed and developing countries. However, the present day economic crisis is often used as a pretext for not doing anything. (J.S.)

Classifying Returns as Extreme

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Charlotte

2014-01-01

I consider extreme returns for the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries using two classification schemes: One, the univariate classification scheme from the previous literature that classifies extreme returns for each market separately, and two, a novel multivariate classification scheme tha...

White book Escrime. Climatic simulation studies; Livre blanc Escrime. Etude des simulations climatiques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Terray, L [CERFACS, 31 - Toulouse (France); Braconnot, P [Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace IPSL/LSCE, CEA-Orme des Merisiers, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

2007-01-15

The ESCRIME project aims to manage the analysis realized on the climatic simulations on the framework of the fourth report of the GIEC (group of intergovernmental experts on the climate evolution), in particularly the simulations based on french models. This white book is constituted by 8 chapters: the global scenario, the climatic sensibility, the variation modes, the regionalization and the extremes, the hydrological cycle, the polar regions and the cryo-sphere, the carbon cycle, detection and attributions. (A.L.B.)

Probabilistic analysis of extreme wind events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chaviaropoulos, P.K. [Center for Renewable Energy Sources (CRES), Pikermi Attikis (Greece)

1997-12-31

A vital task in wind engineering and meterology is to understand, measure, analyse and forecast extreme wind conditions, due to their significant effects on human activities and installations like buildings, bridges or wind turbines. The latest version of the IEC standard (1996) pays particular attention to the extreme wind events that have to be taken into account when designing or certifying a wind generator. Actually, the extreme wind events within a 50 year period are those which determine the ``static`` design of most of the wind turbine components. The extremes which are important for the safety of wind generators are those associated with the so-called ``survival wind speed``, the extreme operating gusts and the extreme wind direction changes. A probabilistic approach for the analysis of these events is proposed in this paper. Emphasis is put on establishing the relation between extreme values and physically meaningful ``site calibration`` parameters, like probability distribution of the annual wind speed, turbulence intensity and power spectra properties. (Author)

Stationary and non-stationary extreme value modeling of extreme temperature in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Hasan, Husna; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd; Kassim, Suraiya

2014-09-01

Extreme annual temperature of eighteen stations in Malaysia is fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Stationary and non-stationary models with trend are considered for each station and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that three out of eighteen stations i.e. Bayan Lepas, Labuan and Subang favor a model which is linear in the location parameter. A hierarchical cluster analysis is employed to investigate the existence of similar behavior among the stations. Three distinct clusters are found in which one of them consists of the stations that favor the non-stationary model. T-year estimated return levels of the extreme temperature are provided based on the chosen models.

L’environnement naturel et le changement climatique pendant les années Bush : la pertinence d’une différenciation des échelles territoriales Climate Change and the Natural Environment in the Bush Years: The Relevance of Territorial Scale Differentiation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cynthia Ghorra-Gobin

2010-03-01

Full Text Available L’attitude de l’administration fédérale au cours des huit années de l’administration Bush contraste avec celle du contexte des années 1960-1970 pour ce qui concerne la prise en compte de l’environnement naturel dans les décisions économiques. Toutefois, cet engagement limité du président Bush sur la question du changement climatique dans les débats internationaux n’a pas pour autant réduit les capacités de mobilisation des États et des villes sur ce thème.On the issue of whether climate change should be taken into account in economic decisions, the federal administration’s attitude during the Bush Presidency sharply contrasted with the attitudes of earlier administrations, particularly in the 1960’s and 1970’s. The limited concern for climate change which the federal government exhibited in the international arena did not reduce, however, the mobilization of states and local communities on this issue.

A note on extreme sets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radosław Cymer

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In decomposition theory, extreme sets have been studied extensively due to its connection to perfect matchings in a graph. In this paper, we first define extreme sets with respect to degree-matchings and next investigate some of their properties. In particular, we prove the generalized Decomposition Theorem and give a characterization for the set of all extreme vertices in a graph.

Extreme Programming: Maestro Style

Science.gov (United States)

Norris, Jeffrey; Fox, Jason; Rabe, Kenneth; Shu, I-Hsiang; Powell, Mark

2009-01-01

"Extreme Programming: Maestro Style" is the name of a computer programming methodology that has evolved as a custom version of a methodology, called extreme programming that has been practiced in the software industry since the late 1990s. The name of this version reflects its origin in the work of the Maestro team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory that develops software for Mars exploration missions. Extreme programming is oriented toward agile development of software resting on values of simplicity, communication, testing, and aggressiveness. Extreme programming involves use of methods of rapidly building and disseminating institutional knowledge among members of a computer-programming team to give all the members a shared view that matches the view of the customers for whom the software system is to be developed. Extreme programming includes frequent planning by programmers in collaboration with customers, continually examining and rewriting code in striving for the simplest workable software designs, a system metaphor (basically, an abstraction of the system that provides easy-to-remember software-naming conventions and insight into the architecture of the system), programmers working in pairs, adherence to a set of coding standards, collaboration of customers and programmers, frequent verbal communication, frequent releases of software in small increments of development, repeated testing of the developmental software by both programmers and customers, and continuous interaction between the team and the customers. The environment in which the Maestro team works requires the team to quickly adapt to changing needs of its customers. In addition, the team cannot afford to accept unnecessary development risk. Extreme programming enables the Maestro team to remain agile and provide high-quality software and service to its customers. However, several factors in the Maestro environment have made it necessary to modify some of the conventional extreme

Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri

2017-05-01

This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

Extremely deformable structures

CERN Document Server

2015-01-01

Recently, a new research stimulus has derived from the observation that soft structures, such as biological systems, but also rubber and gel, may work in a post critical regime, where elastic elements are subject to extreme deformations, though still exhibiting excellent mechanical performances. This is the realm of ‘extreme mechanics’, to which this book is addressed. The possibility of exploiting highly deformable structures opens new and unexpected technological possibilities. In particular, the challenge is the design of deformable and bi-stable mechanisms which can reach superior mechanical performances and can have a strong impact on several high-tech applications, including stretchable electronics, nanotube serpentines, deployable structures for aerospace engineering, cable deployment in the ocean, but also sensors and flexible actuators and vibration absorbers. Readers are introduced to a variety of interrelated topics involving the mechanics of extremely deformable structures, with emphasis on ...

Assessing Climate Variability using Extreme Rainfall and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user1

extreme frequency); the average intensity of rainfall from extreme events ... frequency and extreme intensity indices, suggesting that extreme events are more frequent and intense during years with high rainfall. The proportion of total rainfall from ...

Infection in the ischemic lower extremity.

Science.gov (United States)

Fry, D E; Marek, J M; Langsfeld, M

1998-06-01

Infections in the lower extremity of the patient with ischemia can cover a broad spectrum of different diseases. An understanding of the particular pathophysiologic circumstances in the ischemic extremity can be of great value in understanding the natural history of the disease and the potential complications that may occur. Optimizing blood flow to the extremity by using revascularization techniques is important for any patient with an ischemic lower extremity complicated by infection or ulceration. Infections in the ischemic lower extremity require local débridement and systemic antibiotics. For severe infections, such as necrotizing fasciitis or the fetid foot, more extensive local débridement and even amputation may be required. Fundamentals of managing prosthetic graft infection require removing the infected prosthesis, local wound débridement, and systemic antibiotics while attempting to preserve viability of the lower extremity using autogenous graft reconstruction.

Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa – Part 1: Application of extreme value theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. E. Rieder

2010-10-01

Full Text Available In this study ideas from extreme value theory are for the first time applied in the field of stratospheric ozone research, because statistical analysis showed that previously used concepts assuming a Gaussian distribution (e.g. fixed deviations from mean values of total ozone data do not adequately address the structure of the extremes. We show that statistical extreme value methods are appropriate to identify ozone extremes and to describe the tails of the Arosa (Switzerland total ozone time series. In order to accommodate the seasonal cycle in total ozone, a daily moving threshold was determined and used, with tools from extreme value theory, to analyse the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs and high (termed EHOs total ozone at Arosa. The analysis shows that the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD provides an appropriate model for the frequency distribution of total ozone above or below a mathematically well-defined threshold, thus providing a statistical description of ELOs and EHOs. The results show an increase in ELOs and a decrease in EHOs during the last decades. The fitted model represents the tails of the total ozone data set with high accuracy over the entire range (including absolute monthly minima and maxima, and enables a precise computation of the frequency distribution of ozone mini-holes (using constant thresholds. Analyzing the tails instead of a small fraction of days below constant thresholds provides deeper insight into the time series properties. Fingerprints of dynamical (e.g. ENSO, NAO and chemical features (e.g. strong polar vortex ozone loss, and major volcanic eruptions, can be identified in the observed frequency of extreme events throughout the time series. Overall the new approach to analysis of extremes provides more information on time series properties and variability than previous approaches that use only monthly averages and/or mini-holes and mini-highs.

Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

Science.gov (United States)

Sobel, Adam; Camargo, Suzana; Debucquoy, Wim; Deodatis, George; Gerrard, Michael; Hall, Timothy; Hallman, Robert; Keenan, Jesse; Lall, Upmanu; Levy, Marc;

Global predictability of temperature extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

2018-05-01

Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

French Research in Acoustics and Signal Processing: Report on Introductory Visit

Science.gov (United States)

1986-05-01

CEPHAG (Centre d’Etude des Phenomenes Aleatoires et Geophysiques ), which is associated with the Institut National Polytechnique at Grenoble. We were...measurement programs. Centre d’Etude des Phenomenes Aleatoires et Geophysiques (CEPHAG), Institut National Polytechnique, Universite de Grenoble, 23 May...69288 Lyon Cedex, France, Tel 72.32.50.67. CENTRE D’ETUDE DES PHENOMENES ALEATOIRES ET GEOPHYSIQUES (CEPHAG), Grenoble. Prof. J. L. Lacoume

Extremal graph theory

CERN Document Server

Bollobas, Bela

2004-01-01

The ever-expanding field of extremal graph theory encompasses a diverse array of problem-solving methods, including applications to economics, computer science, and optimization theory. This volume, based on a series of lectures delivered to graduate students at the University of Cambridge, presents a concise yet comprehensive treatment of extremal graph theory.Unlike most graph theory treatises, this text features complete proofs for almost all of its results. Further insights into theory are provided by the numerous exercises of varying degrees of difficulty that accompany each chapter. A

Statistical Model of Extreme Shear

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

2004-01-01

In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continously increase the knowledge on wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describe the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of high-sampled full-scale time series measurements...... are consistent, given the inevitabel uncertainties associated with model as well as with the extreme value data analysis. Keywords: Statistical model, extreme wind conditions, statistical analysis, turbulence, wind loading, statistical analysis, turbulence, wind loading, wind shear, wind turbines....

Consciousness, accessibility, and the mesh between psychology and neuroscience.

Science.gov (United States)

Block, Ned

2007-12-01

How can we disentangle the neural basis of phenomenal consciousness from the neural machinery of the cognitive access that underlies reports of phenomenal consciousness? We see the problem in stark form if we ask how we can tell whether representations inside a Fodorian module are phenomenally conscious. The methodology would seem straightforward: Find the neural natural kinds that are the basis of phenomenal consciousness in clear cases--when subjects are completely confident and we have no reason to doubt their authority--and look to see whether those neural natural kinds exist within Fodorian modules. But a puzzle arises: Do we include the machinery underlying reportability within the neural natural kinds of the clear cases? If the answer is "Yes," then there can be no phenomenally conscious representations in Fodorian modules. But how can we know if the answer is "Yes"? The suggested methodology requires an answer to the question it was supposed to answer! This target article argues for an abstract solution to the problem and exhibits a source of empirical data that is relevant, data that show that in a certain sense phenomenal consciousness overflows cognitive accessibility. I argue that we can find a neural realizer of this overflow if we assume that the neural basis of phenomenal consciousness does not include the neural basis of cognitive accessibility and that this assumption is justified (other things being equal) by the explanations it allows.

Neurodevelopmental problems and extremes in BMI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nóra Kerekes

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Background. Over the last few decades, an increasing number of studies have suggested a connection between neurodevelopmental problems (NDPs and body mass index (BMI. Attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD and autism spectrum disorders (ASD both seem to carry an increased risk for developing extreme BMI. However, the results are inconsistent, and there have been only a few studies of the general population of children.Aims. We had three aims with the present study: (1 to define the prevalence of extreme (low or high BMI in the group of children with ADHD and/or ASDs compared to the group of children without these NDPs; (2 to analyze whether extreme BMI is associated with the subdomains within the diagnostic categories of ADHD or ASD; and (3 to investigate the contribution of genetic and environmental factors to BMI in boys and girls at ages 9 and 12.Method. Parents of 9- or 12-year-old twins (n = 12,496 were interviewed using the Autism—Tics, ADHD and other Comorbidities (A-TAC inventory as part of the Child and Adolescent Twin Study in Sweden (CATSS. Univariate and multivariate generalized estimated equation models were used to analyze associations between extremes in BMI and NDPs.Results. ADHD screen-positive cases followed BMI distributions similar to those of children without ADHD or ASD. Significant association was found between ADHD and BMI only among 12-year-old girls, where the inattention subdomain of ADHD was significantly associated with the high extreme BMI. ASD scores were associated with both the low and the high extremes of BMI. Compared to children without ADHD or ASD, the prevalence of ASD screen-positive cases was three times greater in the high extreme BMI group and double as much in the low extreme BMI group. Stereotyped and repetitive behaviors were significantly associated with high extreme BMIs.Conclusion. Children with ASD, with or without coexisting ADHD, are more prone to have low or high extreme BMIs than

Heart valve prostheses: who protects our patients, and from what?

Science.gov (United States)

Beall, A C

1977-01-01

Phenomenal advances in the development of cardiac valve prostheses have taken place in less than two decades. However, the currently prevailing atmosphere of consumer protectionism in existence 20 years ago probably would have made such developments impossible. Recent passage of the Medical Device Amendments of 1976 (P.L. 94-295) will not only make future development extremely difficult, but also may force the field of cardiac valve replacement back into the era of the 1950s. Regulations implementing this legislation may be even more disastrous. It is time for someone to protect patients from their so-called protectors.

Extreme climate, not extreme weather: the summer of 1816 in Geneva, Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Auchmann

2012-02-01

Full Text Available We analyze weather and climate during the "Year without Summer" 1816 using sub-daily data from Geneva, Switzerland, representing one of the climatically most severely affected regions. The record includes twice daily measurements and observations of air temperature, pressure, cloud cover, wind speed, and wind direction as well as daily measurements of precipitation. Comparing 1816 to a contemporary reference period (1799–1821 reveals that the coldness of the summer of 1816 was most prominent in the afternoon, with a shift of the entire distribution function of temperature anomalies by 3–4 °C. Early morning temperature anomalies show a smaller change for the mean, a significant decrease in the variability, and no changes in negative extremes. Analyzing cloudy and cloud-free conditions separately suggests that an increase in the number of cloudy days was to a significant extent responsible for these features. A daily weather type classification based on pressure, pressure tendency, and wind direction shows extremely anomalous frequencies in summer 1816, with only one day (compared to 20 in an average summer classified as high-pressure situation but a tripling of low-pressure situations. The afternoon temperature anomalies expected from only a change in weather types was much stronger negative in summer 1816 than in any other year. For precipitation, our analysis shows that the 80% increase in summer precipitation compared to the reference period can be explained by 80% increase in the frequency of precipitation, while no change could be found neither in the average intensity of precipitation nor in the frequency distribution of extreme precipitation. In all, the analysis shows that the regional circulation and local cloud cover played a dominant role. It also shows that the summer of 1816 was an example of extreme climate, not extreme weather.

The greenhouse effect and extreme weather

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groenaas, Sigbjoern; Kvamstoe, Nils Gunnar

2002-01-01

The article asserts that an anthropogenic global warming is occurring. This greenhouse effect is expected to cause more occurrences of extreme weather. It is extremely difficult, however, to relate specific weather catastrophes to global warming with certainty, since such extreme weather conditions are rare historically. The subject is controversial. The article also discusses the public debate and the risk of floods

Defining Extreme Events: A Cross-Disciplinary Review

Science.gov (United States)

McPhillips, Lauren E.; Chang, Heejun; Chester, Mikhail V.; Depietri, Yaella; Friedman, Erin; Grimm, Nancy B.; Kominoski, John S.; McPhearson, Timon; Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo; Rosi, Emma J.; Shafiei Shiva, Javad

2018-03-01

Extreme events are of interest worldwide given their potential for substantial impacts on social, ecological, and technical systems. Many climate-related extreme events are increasing in frequency and/or magnitude due to anthropogenic climate change, and there is increased potential for impacts due to the location of urbanization and the expansion of urban centers and infrastructures. Many disciplines are engaged in research and management of these events. However, a lack of coherence exists in what constitutes and defines an extreme event across these fields, which impedes our ability to holistically understand and manage these events. Here, we review 10 years of academic literature and use text analysis to elucidate how six major disciplines—climatology, earth sciences, ecology, engineering, hydrology, and social sciences—define and communicate extreme events. Our results highlight critical disciplinary differences in the language used to communicate extreme events. Additionally, we found a wide range in definitions and thresholds, with more than half of examined papers not providing an explicit definition, and disagreement over whether impacts are included in the definition. We urge distinction between extreme events and their impacts, so that we can better assess when responses to extreme events have actually enhanced resilience. Additionally, we suggest that all researchers and managers of extreme events be more explicit in their definition of such events as well as be more cognizant of how they are communicating extreme events. We believe clearer and more consistent definitions and communication can support transdisciplinary understanding and management of extreme events.

Management of the mangled extremity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Prasarn, Mark L.; Helfet, David L.; Kloen, Peter

2012-01-01

The management of a mangled extremity continues to be a matter of debate. With modern advances in trauma resuscitation, microvascular tissue transfer, and fracture fixation, severe traumatic extremity injuries that would historically have been amputated are often salvaged. Even if preserving a

A decade of weather extremes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Coumou, Dim; Rahmstorf, Stefan

The ostensibly large number of recent extreme weather events has triggered intensive discussions, both in- and outside the scientific community, on whether they are related to global warming. Here, we review the evidence and argue that for some types of extreme - notably heatwaves, but also

Attitude extremity, consensus and diagnosticity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Pligt, J.; Ester, P.; van der Linden, J.

1983-01-01

Studied the effects of attitude extremity on perceived consensus and willingness to ascribe trait terms to others with either pro- or antinuclear attitudes. 611 Ss rated their attitudes toward nuclear energy on a 5-point scale. Results show that attitude extremity affected consensus estimates. Trait

Extreme Events in Nature and Society

CERN Document Server

Albeverio, Sergio; Kantz, Holger

2006-01-01

Significant, and usually unwelcome, surprises, such as floods, financial crisis, epileptic seizures, or material rupture, are the topics of Extreme Events in Nature and Society. The book, authored by foremost experts in these fields, reveals unifying and distinguishing features of extreme events, including problems of understanding and modelling their origin, spatial and temporal extension, and potential impact. The chapters converge towards the difficult problem of anticipation: forecasting the event and proposing measures to moderate or prevent it. Extreme Events in Nature and Society will interest not only specialists, but also the general reader eager to learn how the multifaceted field of extreme events can be viewed as a coherent whole.

Controlling extreme events on complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yu-Zhong; Huang, Zi-Gang; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2014-08-01

Extreme events, a type of collective behavior in complex networked dynamical systems, often can have catastrophic consequences. To develop effective strategies to control extreme events is of fundamental importance and practical interest. Utilizing transportation dynamics on complex networks as a prototypical setting, we find that making the network ``mobile'' can effectively suppress extreme events. A striking, resonance-like phenomenon is uncovered, where an optimal degree of mobility exists for which the probability of extreme events is minimized. We derive an analytic theory to understand the mechanism of control at a detailed and quantitative level, and validate the theory numerically. Implications of our finding to current areas such as cybersecurity are discussed.

Agriculture et changement climatique: enjeux et solutions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mergeai, G.

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Agriculture and Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions. According to the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, climate change is already having a significant impact on agriculture. Several models highlight the increasingly negative effects of increased temperatures on crop yields and livestock farming in developing countries. These impacts can be caused by negative physiological effects for plants and animals, which result from higher temperatures or the proliferation of pests and diseases caused by the latter. The increased number of extreme weather events, especially floods, and changing precipitation patterns are linked to climate changes. These factors dramatically affect the crop production potential of agricultural land. Populations in the developing world, which are already vulnerable and exposed to food insecurity, are the most seriously affected. In many countries in the southern hemisphere, agriculture actually represents the main source of income for a major proportion of the active population. Combined with increased demographic pressure, climate changes therefore help to exacerbate the pressure on global food systems. In addition, it should be noted that agriculture also plays a key role in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and is therefore at the heart of a variety of complex issues. In light of these facts, it is essential that we make every effort to identify solutions, aimed at adapting to climate changes and alleviating the contribution of certain agricultural practices to the latter, in order to respond to all the challenges that they create. This involves reinforcing research initiatives aimed at understanding and quantifying the problems, while identifying steps that need to be taken in order to limit these problems. It also involves lobbying for appropriate policies to be put into place, based on the results of this research. Last but not least, it involves developing field

A single pH fluorescent probe for biosensing and imaging of extreme acidity and extreme alkalinity.

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Jian-Bin; Wang, Hui-Juan; Zhang, Yong-Bin; Li, Zhi-Qing; Liu, Yu-Hong; Huo, Fang-Jun; Yin, Cai-Xia; Shi, Ya-Wei; Wang, Juan-Juan

2017-07-04

A simple tailor-made pH fluorescent probe 2-benzothiazole (N-ethylcarbazole-3-yl) hydrazone (Probe) is facilely synthesized by the condensation reaction of 2-hydrazinobenzothiazole with N-ethylcarbazole-3-formaldehyde, which is a useful fluorescent probe for monitoring extremely acidic and alkaline pH, quantitatively. The pH titrations indicate that Probe displays a remarkable emission enhancement with a pK a of 2.73 and responds linearly to minor pH fluctuations within the extremely acidic range of 2.21-3.30. Interestingly, Probe also exhibits strong pH-dependent characteristics with pK a 11.28 and linear response to extreme-alkalinity range of 10.41-12.43. In addition, Probe shows a large Stokes shift of 84 nm under extremely acidic and alkaline conditions, high selectivity, excellent sensitivity, good water-solubility and fine stability, all of which are favorable for intracellular pH imaging. The probe is further successfully applied to image extremely acidic and alkaline pH values fluctuations in E. coli cells. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Near-extreme system condition and near-extreme remaining useful time for a group of products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Hai-Kun; Li, Yan-Feng; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Jin, Tongdan

2017-01-01

When a group of identical products is operating in field, the aggregation of failures is a catastrophe to engineers and customers who strive to develop reliable and safe products. In order to avoid a swarm of failures in a short time, it is essential to measure the degree of dispersion from different failure times in a group of products to the first failure time. This phenomenon is relevant to the crowding of system conditions near the worst one among a group of products. The group size in this paper represents a finite number of products, instead of infinite number or a single product. We evaluate the reliability of the product fleet from two aspects. First, we define near-extreme system condition and near-extreme failure time for offline solutions, which means no online observations. Second, we apply them to a continuous degradation system that breaks down when it reaches a soft failure threshold. By using particle filtering in the framework of prognostics and health management for a group of products, we aim to estimate near-extreme system condition and further predict the remaining useful life (RUL) using online solutions. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. - Highlights: • The aggregation of failures is measured for a group of identical products. • The crowding of failures is quantitated by the near-extreme evaluations. • Near-extreme system condition are given for offline solutions. • Near-extreme remaining useful time are provided for online solutions.

Book review: Extreme ocean waves

Science.gov (United States)

Geist, Eric L.

2011-01-01

‘‘Extreme Ocean Waves’’ is a collection of ten papers edited by Efim Pelinovsky and Christian Kharif that followed the April 2007 meeting of the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union. A note on terminology: extreme waves in this volume broadly encompass different types of waves, includ- ing deep-water and shallow-water rogue waves (alternatively termed freak waves), storm surges from cyclones, and internal waves. Other types of waves such as tsunamis or rissaga (meteotsunamis) are not discussed in this volume. It is generally implied that ‘‘extreme’’ has a statistical connotation relative to the average or significant wave height specific to each type of wave. Throughout the book, in fact, the reader will find a combination of theoretical and statistical/ empirical treatment necessary for the complete examination of this subject. In the introduction, the editors underscore the importance of studying extreme waves, documenting several dramatic instances of damaging extreme waves that occurred in 2007. 

Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis

2005-01-01

During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.

The personal dispositions of violent extremism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Davydov D.G.

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the differences in the nature of extremism and radicalism, and the necessity of introducing the concept of "violent extremism." It is shown that the ideology is the explanation of extremist behavior, rather than its cause. The ideology of extremism often eclectic, contradictory and can easily be transformed by changing the object of hostility, depending on the situation. For the description of the psychological causes of extremism it is proposed to use the concept of personal disposition. Disposition is the preferred way to subjective interpretation of reality and reflects both the specific needs of a person as well the typical social situations where it realized and personal experience. Considered the following dispositions of violent extremism: the Cult of force and aggression, Intolerance, Out-group hostility Conventional coercion, Social pessimism and destructiveness, Mystical, Fighting and overcoming, Nihilism to law, Anti-subjectivism. It is proposed to use these dispositions as diagnostic criteria and for preventing and correcting.

Statistics of extremes theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Beirlant, Jan; Segers, Johan; Teugels, Jozef; De Waal, Daniel; Ferro, Chris

2006-01-01

Research in the statistical analysis of extreme values has flourished over the past decade: new probability models, inference and data analysis techniques have been introduced; and new application areas have been explored. Statistics of Extremes comprehensively covers a wide range of models and application areas, including risk and insurance: a major area of interest and relevance to extreme value theory. Case studies are introduced providing a good balance of theory and application of each model discussed, incorporating many illustrated examples and plots of data. The last part of the book covers some interesting advanced topics, including  time series, regression, multivariate and Bayesian modelling of extremes, the use of which has huge potential.  

Modulation of extreme temperatures in Europe under extreme values of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Beniston, Martin

2018-03-10

This paper reports on the influence that extreme values in the tails of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index probability density function (PDF) can exert on temperatures in Europe. When the NAO Index enters into its lowest (10% quantile or less) and highest (90% quantile or higher) modes, European temperatures often exhibit large negative or positive departures from their mean values, respectively. Analyses of the joint quantiles of the Index and temperatures (i.e., the simultaneous exceedance of particular quantile thresholds by the two variables) show that temperatures enter into the upper or lower tails of their PDF when the NAO Index also enters into its extreme tails, more often that could be expected from random statistics. Studies of this nature help further our understanding of the manner by which mechanisms of decadal-scale climate variability can influence extremes of temperature-and thus perhaps improve the forecasting of extreme temperatures in weather and climate models. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Climate change, climatic variation and extreme biological responses.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmer, Georgina; Platts, Philip J; Brereton, Tom; Chapman, Jason W; Dytham, Calvin; Fox, Richard; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Roy, David B; Hill, Jane K; Thomas, Chris D

2017-06-19

Extreme climatic events could be major drivers of biodiversity change, but it is unclear whether extreme biological changes are (i) individualistic (species- or group-specific), (ii) commonly associated with unusual climatic events and/or (iii) important determinants of long-term population trends. Using population time series for 238 widespread species (207 Lepidoptera and 31 birds) in England since 1968, we found that population 'crashes' (outliers in terms of species' year-to-year population changes) were 46% more frequent than population 'explosions'. (i) Every year, at least three species experienced extreme changes in population size, and in 41 of the 44 years considered, some species experienced population crashes while others simultaneously experienced population explosions. This suggests that, even within the same broad taxonomic groups, species are exhibiting individualistic dynamics, most probably driven by their responses to different, short-term events associated with climatic variability. (ii) Six out of 44 years showed a significant excess of species experiencing extreme population changes (5 years for Lepidoptera, 1 for birds). These 'consensus years' were associated with climatically extreme years, consistent with a link between extreme population responses and climatic variability, although not all climatically extreme years generated excess numbers of extreme population responses. (iii) Links between extreme population changes and long-term population trends were absent in Lepidoptera and modest (but significant) in birds. We conclude that extreme biological responses are individualistic, in the sense that the extreme population changes of most species are taking place in different years, and that long-term trends of widespread species have not, to date, been dominated by these extreme changes.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Authors.

On the Extreme Wave Height Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Burcharth, H. F.; Liu, Zhou

1994-01-01

The determination of the design wave height is usually based on the statistical analysis of long-term extreme wave height measurements. After an introduction to the procedure of the extreme wave height analysis, the paper presents new development concerning various aspects of the extreme wave...... height analysis. Finally, the paper gives a practical example based on a data set of the hindcasted wave heights for a deep water location in the Mediterranean Sea....

Performance testing of extremity dosimeters, Study 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harty, R.; Reece, W.D.; Hooker, C.D.

1990-04-01

The Health Physics Society Standards Committee (HPSSC) Working Group on Performance Testing of Extremity Dosimeters has issued a draft of a proposed standard for extremity dosimeters. The draft standard proposes methods to be used for testing dosimetry systems that determine occupational radiation dose to the extremities and the performance criterion used to determine compliance with the standard. Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) has conducted two separate evaluations of the performance of extremity dosimeter processors to determine the appropriateness of the draft standard, as well as to obtain information regarding the performance of extremity dosimeters. Based on the information obtained during the facility visits and the results obtained from the performance testing, it was recommended that changes be made to ensure that the draft standard is appropriate for extremity dosimeters. The changes include: subdividing the mixture category and the beta particle category; eliminating the neutron category until appropriate flux-to-dose equivalent conversion factors are derived; and changing the tolerance level for the performance criterion to provide consistency with the performance criterion for whole body dosimeters, and to avoid making the draft standard overly difficult for processors of extremity dosimeters to pass. 20 refs., 10 figs., 6 tabs

DIRECTIONS OF EXTREME TOURISM IN UKRAINE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. V. Martseniuk

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Purpose. In the world market of tourist services the extreme tourism is very popular, as it does not require the significant financial costs and enables year on year to increase the offers of holiday packages, associated with active travel. Ukraine has significant potential for the development of extreme kinds of rest, but it is not developed enough. Forms of extreme tourism are unknown for domestic tourists, and therefore, they formed a negative attitude. The aim of the article is the analysis of extreme resort potential of Ukraine and promotion of the development of extreme tourism destinations in the travel market. Theoretical and methodological basis of research is the system analysis of the problems of ensuring the competitiveness of the tourism industry, theoretical principles of economic science in the field of the effectiveness of extreme tourism and management of tourist flows. Methodology. The author offers the directions of tourist flows control, which differ from the current expansion of services to tourists in Ukraine. The development of extreme tourism with the help of co-operation of railways and sport federations was proposed. Findings. During the research the author proved that the implementation of the tasks will be promote: 1 increase in budget revenues at all levels of the inner extreme tourism; 2 raise the image of Ukraine and Ukrainian Railways; 3 increase the share of tourism and resorts in the gross domestic product to the level of developed countries; 4 bringing the number of employees in tourism and resorts to the level of developed countries; 5 the creation of an effective system of monitoring the quality of tourist services; 6 the creation of an attractive investment climate for attracting the investment in the broad development of tourism, engineering and transport and municipal infrastructure; 7 improvement the safety of tourists, ensure the effective protection of their rights and legitimate interests and

Angiography of the upper extremity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janevski, B.K.

1982-01-01

This thesis provides a description of the technical and medical aspects of arteriography of the upper extremity and an extensive analysis of the angiographic anatomy and pathology of 750 selective studies performed in more than 500 patients. A short historical review is provided of angiography as a whole and of arteriography of the hand in particular. The method of percutaneous transfemoral catheterization of the arteries of the upper extremity and particularly the arteries of the hand is considered, discussing the problems the angiographer encounters frequently, describing the angiographic complications which may occur and emphasizing the measures to keep them to a minimum. The use of vasodilators in hand angiography is discussed. A short description of the embryological patterns persisting in the arteries of the arm is included in order to understand the congenital variations of the arteries of the upper extremity. The angiographic patterns and clinical aspects of the most common pathological processes involving the arteries of the upper extremities are presented. Special attention is paid to the correlation between angiography and pathology. (Auth.)

Acclimatization to extreme heat

Science.gov (United States)

Warner, M. E.; Ganguly, A. R.; Bhatia, U.

2017-12-01

Heat extremes throughout the globe, as well as in the United States, are expected to increase. These heat extremes have been shown to impact human health, resulting in some of the highest levels of lives lost as compared with similar natural disasters. But in order to inform decision makers and best understand future mortality and morbidity, adaptation and mitigation must be considered. Defined as the ability for individuals or society to change behavior and/or adapt physiologically, acclimatization encompasses the gradual adaptation that occurs over time. Therefore, this research aims to account for acclimatization to extreme heat by using a hybrid methodology that incorporates future air conditioning use and installation patterns with future temperature-related time series data. While previous studies have not accounted for energy usage patterns and market saturation scenarios, we integrate such factors to compare the impact of air conditioning as a tool for acclimatization, with a particular emphasis on mortality within vulnerable communities.

Examine Precipitation Extremes in Terms of Storm Properties

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.; Chen, L.; Gautam, M. R.; Acharya, K.

2017-12-01

The increasing potential of the extreme precipitation is of significant societal concern. Changes in precipitation extremes have been mostly examined using extreme precipitation indices or Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) analyses, which often fail to reveal the characteristics of an integrated precipitation event. In this study, we will examine the precipitation extremes in terms of storm properties including storm duration, storm intensity, total storm precipitation, and within storm pattern. Single storm event will be identified and storm properties will be determined based on the hourly precipitation time series in the selected locations in southwest United States. Three types of extreme precipitation event will be recognized using the criteria as (1) longest storm duration; (2) Highest storm intensity; and (3) largest total precipitation over a storm. The trend and variation of extreme precipitation events will be discussed for each criterion. Based on the comparisons of the characteristics of extreme precipitation events identified using different criteria, we will provide guidelines for choosing proper criteria for extreme precipitation analysis in specific location.

[Injury mechanisms in extreme violence settings].

Science.gov (United States)

Arcaute-Velazquez, Fernando Federico; García-Núñez, Luis Manuel; Noyola-Vilallobos, Héctor Faustino; Espinoza-Mercado, Fernando; Rodríguez-Vega, Carlos Eynar

2016-01-01

Extreme violence events are consequence of current world-wide economic, political and social conditions. Injury patterns found among victims of extreme violence events are very complex, obeying several high-energy injury mechanisms. In this article, we present the basic concepts of trauma kinematics that regulate the clinical approach to victims of extreme violence events, in the hope that clinicians increase their theoretical armamentarium, and reflecting on obtaining better outcomes. Copyright © 2016. Published by Masson Doyma México S.A.

Extremely low temperature properties of epoxy GFRP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kadotani, Kenzo; Nagai, Matao; Aki, Fumitake.

1983-01-01

The examination of fiber-reinforced plastics, that is, plastics such as epoxy, polyester and polyimide reinforced with high strength fibers such as glass, carbon, boron and steel, for extremely low temperature use began from the fuel tanks of rockets. Therafter, the trial manufacture of superconducting generators and extremely low temperature transformers and the manufacture of superconducting magnets for nuclear fusion experimental setups became active, and high performance FRPs have been adopted, of which the extremely low temperature properties have been sufficiently grasped. Recently, the cryostats made of FRPs have been developed, fully utilizing such features of FRPs as high strength, high rigidity, non-magnetic material, insulation, low heat conductivity, light weight and the freedom of molding. In this paper, the mechanical properties at extremely low temperature of the plastic composite materials used as insulators and structural materials for extremely low temperature superconducting equipment is outlined, and in particular, glass fiber-reinforced epoxy laminates are described somewhat in detail. The fracture strain of GFRP at extremely low temperature is about 1.3 times as large as that at room temperature, but at extremely low temperature, clear cracking occurred at 40% of the fracture strain. The linear thermal contraction of GFRP showed remarkable anisotropy. (Kako, I.)

Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

Science.gov (United States)

McMichael, Anthony J

2015-01-01

Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

Développement d'une approche intégrée pour la gestion de l'eau en production de canneberges

OpenAIRE

Pelletier, Vincent

2016-01-01

Dans un contexte évolutif où les changements climatiques entraîneront une augmentation du nombre d’événements climatiques extrêmes, la gestion de l’eau devra être optimisée afin d’éviter l’impact des stress environnementaux sur le rendement agronomique des cultures. Bien que les seuils où surviennent ces stress soient connus pour la majorité des espèces agricoles, ils demeurent pour la plupart inconnus pour la canneberge. Leur détermination est donc un prérequis à l’établissement d’une gestio...

Document de base d'un nouveau projet régional : Réduction des émissions de polluants dans le secteur du transport dans trois pays du Maghreb (Algérie, Maroc, Tunisie)

OpenAIRE

Joumard , Robert; BOUGHEDAOUI , Ménouèr

2003-01-01

présenté lors du Forum régional sur les changements climatiques, Les pays du Maghreb face aux changements climatiques : bilan et perspectives (Algérie, Maroc, Tunisie), Marrakech, 27-28 mars 2003; Pour répondre à une demande croissante de la mobilité des personnes et des marchandises, le transport routier évolue rapidement alors que les infrastructures, la réglementation et plus généralement les politiques n'intègrent guère la problématique de réduction des gaz polluants et à effet de serre, ...

Les chemins infinis de la décarbonisation. Neuf questions clés pour la COP21

OpenAIRE

Berta, Nathalie

2015-01-01

Introduction L’ouvrage de Michel Damian offre une analyse fine, à la fois riche et synthétique, des négociations climatiques internationales depuis la Convention-Cadre des Nations Unies de Rio en 1992. Ce détour historique est nécessaire si l’on veut comprendre les enjeux de la COP21 de Paris. Il permet de souligner l’évolution des thèmes abordés lors des négociations — de la réduction des émissions à l’adaptation, de la compensation des dommages liés au changement climatique au maintien du c...

Random phenomena; Phenomenes aleatoires

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bonnet, G. [Commissariat a l' energie atomique et aux energies alternatives - CEA, C.E.N.G., Service d' Electronique, Section d' Electronique, Grenoble (France)

1963-07-01

This document gathers a set of conferences presented in 1962. A first one proposes a mathematical introduction to the analysis of random phenomena. The second one presents an axiomatic of probability calculation. The third one proposes an overview of one-dimensional random variables. The fourth one addresses random pairs, and presents basic theorems regarding the algebra of mathematical expectations. The fifth conference discusses some probability laws: binomial distribution, the Poisson distribution, and the Laplace-Gauss distribution. The last one deals with the issues of stochastic convergence and asymptotic distributions.

Stellar extreme ultraviolet astronomy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cash, W.C. Jr.

1978-01-01

The design, calibration, and launch of a rocket-borne imaging telescope for extreme ultraviolet astronomy are described. The telescope, which employed diamond-turned grazing incidence optics and a ranicon detector, was launched November 19, 1976, from the White Sands Missile Range. The telescope performed well and returned data on several potential stellar sources of extreme ultraviolet radiation. Upper limits ten to twenty times more sensitive than previously available were obtained for the extreme ultraviolet flux from the white dwarf Sirius B. These limits fall a factor of seven below the flux predicted for the star and demonstrate that the temperature of Sirius B is not 32,000 K as previously measured, but is below 30,000 K. The new upper limits also rule out the photosphere of the white dwarf as the source of the recently reported soft x-rays from Sirius. Two other white dwarf stars, Feige 24 and G191-B2B, were observed. Upper limits on the flux at 300 A were interpreted as lower limits on the interstellar hydrogen column densities to these stars. The lower limits indicate interstellar hydrogen densitites of greater than .02 cm -3 . Four nearby stars (Sirius, Procyon, Capella, and Mirzam) were observed in a search for intense low temperature coronae or extended chromospheres. No extreme ultraviolet radiation from these stars was detected, and upper limits to their coronal emisson measures are derived

How rich is consciousness? The partial awareness hypothesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kouider, Sid; de Gardelle, Vincent; Sackur, Jérôme; Dupoux, Emmanuel

2010-07-01

Current theories of consciousness posit a dissociation between 'phenomenal' consciousness (rich) and 'access' consciousness (limited). Here, we argue that the empirical evidence for phenomenal consciousness without access is equivocal, resulting either from a confusion between phenomenal and unconscious contents, or from an impression of phenomenally rich experiences arising from illusory contents. We propose a refined account of access that relies on a hierarchy of representational levels and on the notion of partial awareness, whereby lower and higher levels are accessed independently. Reframing of the issue of dissociable forms of consciousness into dissociable levels of access provides a more parsimonious account of the existing evidence. In addition, the rich phenomenology illusion can be studied and described in terms of testable cognitive mechanisms. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two case studies on NARCCAP precipitation extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, Grant B.; Cooley, Daniel; Sain, Stephan R.; Bukovsky, Melissa S.; Mearns, Linda O.

2013-09-01

We introduce novel methodology to examine the ability of six regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble to simulate past extreme precipitation events seen in the observational record over two different regions and seasons. Our primary objective is to examine the strength of daily correspondence of extreme precipitation events between observations and the output of both the RCMs and the driving reanalysis product. To explore this correspondence, we employ methods from multivariate extreme value theory. These methods require that we account for marginal behavior, and we first model and compare climatological quantities which describe tail behavior of daily precipitation for both the observations and model output before turning attention to quantifying the correspondence of the extreme events. Daily precipitation in a West Coast region of North America is analyzed in two seasons, and it is found that the simulated extreme events from the reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models exhibit strong daily correspondence to extreme events in the observational record. Precipitation over a central region of the United States is examined, and we find some daily correspondence between winter extremes simulated by reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models and those seen in observations, but no such correspondence is found for summer extremes. Furthermore, we find greater discrepancies among the NARCCAP models in the tail characteristics of the distribution of daily summer precipitation over this region than seen in precipitation over the West Coast region. We find that the models which employ spectral nudging exhibit stronger tail dependence to observations in the central region.

How does public opinion become extreme?

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, Marlon; Shao, Jia; Reis, Saulo D S; Anteneodo, Celia; Andrade, José S; Havlin, Shlomo; Makse, Hernán A

2015-05-19

We investigate the emergence of extreme opinion trends in society by employing statistical physics modeling and analysis on polls that inquire about a wide range of issues such as religion, economics, politics, abortion, extramarital sex, books, movies, and electoral vote. The surveys lay out a clear indicator of the rise of extreme views. The precursor is a nonlinear relation between the fraction of individuals holding a certain extreme view and the fraction of individuals that includes also moderates, e.g., in politics, those who are "very conservative" versus "moderate to very conservative" ones. We propose an activation model of opinion dynamics with interaction rules based on the existence of individual "stubbornness" that mimics empirical observations. According to our modeling, the onset of nonlinearity can be associated to an abrupt bootstrap-percolation transition with cascades of extreme views through society. Therefore, it represents an early-warning signal to forecast the transition from moderate to extreme views. Moreover, by means of a phase diagram we can classify societies according to the percolative regime they belong to, in terms of critical fractions of extremists and people's ties.

How does public opinion become extreme?

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, Marlon; Shao, Jia; Reis, Saulo D. S.; Anteneodo, Celia; Andrade, José S.; Havlin, Shlomo; Makse, Hernán A.

2015-05-01

We investigate the emergence of extreme opinion trends in society by employing statistical physics modeling and analysis on polls that inquire about a wide range of issues such as religion, economics, politics, abortion, extramarital sex, books, movies, and electoral vote. The surveys lay out a clear indicator of the rise of extreme views. The precursor is a nonlinear relation between the fraction of individuals holding a certain extreme view and the fraction of individuals that includes also moderates, e.g., in politics, those who are “very conservative” versus “moderate to very conservative” ones. We propose an activation model of opinion dynamics with interaction rules based on the existence of individual “stubbornness” that mimics empirical observations. According to our modeling, the onset of nonlinearity can be associated to an abrupt bootstrap-percolation transition with cascades of extreme views through society. Therefore, it represents an early-warning signal to forecast the transition from moderate to extreme views. Moreover, by means of a phase diagram we can classify societies according to the percolative regime they belong to, in terms of critical fractions of extremists and people’s ties.

Sequences of extremal radially excited rotating black holes.

Science.gov (United States)

Blázquez-Salcedo, Jose Luis; Kunz, Jutta; Navarro-Lérida, Francisco; Radu, Eugen

2014-01-10

In the Einstein-Maxwell-Chern-Simons theory the extremal Reissner-Nordström solution is no longer the single extremal solution with vanishing angular momentum, when the Chern-Simons coupling constant reaches a critical value. Instead a whole sequence of rotating extremal J=0 solutions arises, labeled by the node number of the magnetic U(1) potential. Associated with the same near horizon solution, the mass of these radially excited extremal solutions converges to the mass of the extremal Reissner-Nordström solution. On the other hand, not all near horizon solutions are also realized as global solutions.

Complex Plasma Research Under Extreme Conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishihara, Osamu

2008-01-01

Complex plasma research under extreme conditions is described. The extreme conditions include low-dimensionality for self-organized structures of dust particles, dust magnetization in high magnetic field, criticality in phase transition, and cryogenic environment for Coulomb crystals and dust dynamics.

Portable upper extremity robotics is as efficacious as upper extremity rehabilitative therapy: a randomized controlled pilot trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Page, Stephen J; Hill, Valerie; White, Susan

2013-06-01

To compare the efficacy of a repetitive task-specific practice regimen integrating a portable, electromyography-controlled brace called the 'Myomo' versus usual care repetitive task-specific practice in subjects with chronic, moderate upper extremity impairment. Sixteen subjects (7 males; mean age 57.0 ± 11.02 years; mean time post stroke 75.0 ± 87.63 months; 5 left-sided strokes) exhibiting chronic, stable, moderate upper extremity impairment. Subjects were administered repetitive task-specific practice in which they participated in valued, functional tasks using their paretic upper extremities. Both groups were supervised by a therapist and were administered therapy targeting their paretic upper extremities that was 30 minutes in duration, occurring 3 days/week for eight weeks. One group participated in repetitive task-specific practice entirely while wearing the portable robotic, while the other performed the same activity regimen manually. The upper extremity Fugl-Meyer, Canadian Occupational Performance Measure and Stroke Impact Scale were administered on two occasions before intervention and once after intervention. After intervention, groups exhibited nearly identical Fugl-Meyer score increases of ≈2.1 points; the group using robotics exhibited larger score changes on all but one of the Canadian Occupational Performance Measure and Stroke Impact Scale subscales, including a 12.5-point increase on the Stroke Impact Scale recovery subscale. Findings suggest that therapist-supervised repetitive task-specific practice integrating robotics is as efficacious as manual practice in subjects with moderate upper extremity impairment.

Extreme project. Progress report 2006; Projet EXTREME. Rapport d'avancement 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eyrolle, F.; Masson, O.; Charmasson, S

2007-07-01

The E.X.T.R.E.M.E. project introduced in 2005 to the S.E.S.U.R.E. / L.E.R.C.M. has for objectives to acquire data on the consequences of the extreme climatic meteorological episodes on the distribution of the artificial radioisotopes within the various compartments of the geosphere. This report presents the synthesis of the actions developed in 2006 in positioning and in co financing of the project by means of regional or national research programs (C.A.R.M.A., E.X.T.R.E.M.A., E.C.C.O.R.E.V.I.), of data acquisition, valuation and scientific collaboration. (N.C.)

Modeling extreme PM10 concentration in Malaysia using generalized extreme value distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Hasan, Husna; Mansor, Nadiah; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd

2015-05-01

Extreme PM10 concentration from the Air Pollutant Index (API) at thirteen monitoring stations in Malaysia is modeled using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The data is blocked into monthly selection period. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model so two models are considered for the stations with trend. The likelihood ratio test is used to determine the best fitted model and the result shows that only two stations favor the non-stationary model (Model 2) while the other eleven stations favor stationary model (Model 1). The return level of PM10 concentration that is expected to exceed the maximum once within a selected period is obtained.

Event-adjusted evaluation of weather and climate extremes

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek

2014-01-01

Roč. 14, č. 2 (2014), s. 473-483 ISSN 1561-8633 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1990 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : weather extreme * climate extreme * extremity evaluation * return period * generalized extreme value distribution * region of influence Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.735, year: 2014 http://www.nat-hazards- earth -syst-sci.net/14/473/2014/nhess-14-473-2014.pdf

Prevention of Lower Extremity Injuries in Basketball

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Jeffrey B.; Ford, Kevin R.; Nguyen, Anh-Dung; Terry, Lauren N.; Hegedus, Eric J.

2015-01-01

Context: Lower extremity injuries are common in basketball, yet it is unclear how prophylactic interventions affect lower extremity injury incidence rates. Objective: To analyze the effectiveness of current lower extremity injury prevention programs in basketball athletes, focusing on injury rates of (1) general lower extremity injuries, (2) ankle sprains, and (3) anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tears. Data Sources: PubMed, MEDLINE, CINAHL, SPORTDiscus, and the Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials were searched in January 2015. Study Selection: Studies were included if they were randomized controlled or prospective cohort trials, contained a population of competitive basketball athletes, and reported lower extremity injury incidence rates specific to basketball players. In total, 426 individual studies were identified. Of these, 9 met the inclusion criteria. One other study was found during a hand search of the literature, resulting in 10 total studies included in this meta-analysis. Study Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Level of Evidence: Level 2. Data Extraction: Details of the intervention (eg, neuromuscular vs external support), size of control and intervention groups, and number of injuries in each group were extracted from each study. Injury data were classified into 3 groups based on the anatomic diagnosis reported (general lower extremity injury, ankle sprain, ACL rupture). Results: Meta-analyses were performed independently for each injury classification. Results indicate that prophylactic programs significantly reduced the incidence of general lower extremity injuries (odds ratio [OR], 0.69; 95% CI, 0.57-0.85; P basketball athletes. Conclusion: In basketball players, prophylactic programs may be effective in reducing the risk of general lower extremity injuries and ankle sprains, yet not ACL injuries. PMID:26502412

Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

2016-03-31

A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mäkinen, H; Kaseva, J; Trnka, M

2018-01-01

The frequency and intensity of extreme weather is increasing concomitant with changes in the global climate change. Although wheat is the most important food crop in Europe, there is currently no comprehensive empirical information available regarding the sensitivity of European wheat to extreme...... weather. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity of European wheat yields to extreme weather related to phenology (sowing, heading) in cultivar trials across Europe (latitudes 37.21° to 61.34° and longitudes −6.02° to 26.24°) during the period 1991–2014. All the observed agro-climatic extremes (≥31 °C...... wheat cultivars that responded positively (+10%) to drought after sowing, or frost during winter (−15 °C and −20 °C). Positive responses to extremes were often shown by cultivars associated with specific regions, such as good performance under high temperatures by southern-origin cultivars. Consequently...

[Crossing borders. The motivation of extreme sportsmen].

Science.gov (United States)

Opaschowski, H W

2005-08-01

In his article "Crossing borders -- the motivation of extreme sportsmen" the author gets systematically to the bottom of the question of why extreme sportsmen voluntarily take risks and endanger themselves. Within the scope of a representative sampling 217 extreme sportsmen -- from the fields of mountain biking, trekking and free climbing, canoyning, river rafting and deep sea diving, paragliding, parachuting, bungee jumping and survival training -- give information about their personal motives. What fascinates them? The attraction of risk? The search for sensation? Or the drop out of everyday life? And what comes afterwards? Does in the end the whole life become an extreme sport? Fact is: they live extremely, because they want to move beyond well-trodden paths. To escape the boredom of everyday life they are searching for the kick, the thrill, the no-limit experience. It's about calculated risk between altitude flight and deep sea adventure.

Is prescribed lower extremity weight-bearing status after geriatric lower extremity trauma associated with increased mortality?

Science.gov (United States)

Gitajn, Ida Leah; Connelly, Daniel; Mascarenhas, Daniel; Breazeale, Stephen; Berger, Peter; Schoonover, Carrie; Martin, Brook; O'Toole, Robert V; Pensy, Raymond; Sciadini, Marcus

2018-02-01

Evaluate whether mortality after discharge is elevated in geriatric fracture patients whose lower extremity weight-bearing is restricted. Retrospective cohort study SETTING: Urban Level 1 trauma center PATIENTS/PARTICIPANTS: 1746 patients >65 years of age INTERVENTION: Post-operative lower extremity weight-bearing status MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Mortality, as determined by the Social Security Death Index RESULTS: Univariate analysis demonstrated that patients who were weight-bearing as tolerated on bilateral lower extremities (BLE) had significantly higher 5-year mortality compared to patients with restricted weight-bearing on one lower extremity and restricted weight-bearing on BLE (30%, 21% and 22% respectively, p bearing as tolerated on BLE, restricted weight-bearing on one lower extremity had a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.97 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.20, p = 0.76) and restricted weight-bearing in BLE had a HR of 0.91 (95% confidence interval 0.60 to 1.36, p = 0.73). In geriatric patients, prescribed weight-bearing status did not have a statistically significant association with mortality after discharge, when controlling for age, sex, body mass index, medical comorbidities, Injury Severity Scale (ISS), mechanism of injury, nonoperative treatment and admission GCS. This remained true in when the analysis was restricted to operative injuries only. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variable ultrasonography findings of extremity lymphangioma: Pathologic correlation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Jong Young; Nam, Kyung Jin; Lee, Ki Nam; Kim, Chan Sung; Lee, Jin Hwa; Kim, Dae Chul

2002-01-01

The great majority of lymphangiomas occur in the neck (75%) and axilla (20%), but extremity lymphangioma is rare. We correlate variable sonographic features of extremity lymphangioma with pathologic findings. We reviewed the sonographic findings of extremity lymphangioma in 14 patients (M:F=8:6). The all cases were histologically confirmed by operation. The variable sonographic features of extremity lymphangioma were compared to pathologic findings. The multilocular cystic mass with ill defined boundaries was distinctive sonographic appearance of extremity lymphangioma. But there were variable sonographic findings such as heterogeneous echogenic mass or homogeneous echogenic portion. The histologic section of echogenic lesion reveals clusters of abnormal

Are extreme hydro-meteorological events a prerequisite for extreme water quality impacts? Exploring climate impacts on inland and coastal waters

Science.gov (United States)

Michalak, A. M.; Balaji, V.; Del Giudice, D.; Sinha, E.; Zhou, Y.; Ho, J. C.

2017-12-01

Questions surrounding water sustainability, climate change, and extreme events are often framed around water quantity - whether too much or too little. The massive impacts of extreme water quality impairments are equally compelling, however. Recent years have provided a host of compelling examples, with unprecedented harmful algal blooms developing along the West coast, in Utah Lake, in Lake Erie, and off the Florida coast, and huge hypoxic dead zones continuing to form in regions such as Lake Erie, the Chesapeake Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. Linkages between climate change, extreme events, and water quality impacts are not well understood, however. Several factors explain this lack of understanding, including the relative complexity of underlying processes, the spatial and temporal scale mismatch between hydrologists and climatologists, and observational uncertainty leading to ambiguities in the historical record. Here, we draw on a number of recent studies that aim to quantitatively link meteorological variability and water quality impacts to test the hypothesis that extreme water quality impairments are the result of extreme hydro-meteorological events. We find that extreme hydro-meteorological events are neither always a necessary nor a sufficient condition for the occurrence of extreme water quality impacts. Rather, extreme water quality impairments often occur in situations where multiple contributing factors compound, which complicates both attribution of historical events and the ability to predict the future incidence of such events. Given the critical societal importance of water quality projections, a concerted program of uncertainty reduction encompassing observational and modeling components will be needed to examine situations where extreme weather plays an important, but not solitary, role in the chain of cause and effect.

A Fourier analysis of extremal events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhao, Yuwei

is the extremal periodogram. The extremal periodogram shares numerous asymptotic properties with the periodogram of a linear process in classical time series analysis: the asymptotic distribution of the periodogram ordinates at the Fourier frequencies have a similar form and smoothed versions of the periodogram...

Spectral density regression for bivariate extremes

KAUST Repository

Castro Camilo, Daniela

2016-05-11

We introduce a density regression model for the spectral density of a bivariate extreme value distribution, that allows us to assess how extremal dependence can change over a covariate. Inference is performed through a double kernel estimator, which can be seen as an extension of the Nadaraya–Watson estimator where the usual scalar responses are replaced by mean constrained densities on the unit interval. Numerical experiments with the methods illustrate their resilience in a variety of contexts of practical interest. An extreme temperature dataset is used to illustrate our methods. © 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

Modeling, Forecasting and Mitigating Extreme Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Le Mouel, J.; Soloviev, A.

2012-12-01

Recent earthquake disasters highlighted the importance of multi- and trans-disciplinary studies of earthquake risk. A major component of earthquake disaster risk analysis is hazards research, which should cover not only a traditional assessment of ground shaking, but also studies of geodetic, paleoseismic, geomagnetic, hydrological, deep drilling and other geophysical and geological observations together with comprehensive modeling of earthquakes and forecasting extreme events. Extreme earthquakes (large magnitude and rare events) are manifestations of complex behavior of the lithosphere structured as a hierarchical system of blocks of different sizes. Understanding of physics and dynamics of the extreme events comes from observations, measurements and modeling. A quantitative approach to simulate earthquakes in models of fault dynamics will be presented. The models reproduce basic features of the observed seismicity (e.g., the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, occurrence of extreme seismic events). They provide a link between geodynamic processes and seismicity, allow studying extreme events, influence of fault network properties on seismic patterns and seismic cycles, and assist, in a broader sense, in earthquake forecast modeling. Some aspects of predictability of large earthquakes (how well can large earthquakes be predicted today?) will be also discussed along with possibilities in mitigation of earthquake disasters (e.g., on 'inverse' forensic investigations of earthquake disasters).

Instability of extremal relativistic charged spheres

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anninos, Peter; Rothman, Tony

2002-01-01

With the question 'Can relativistic charged spheres form extremal black holes?' in mind, we investigate the properties of such spheres from a classical point of view. The investigation is carried out numerically by integrating the Oppenheimer-Volkov equation for relativistic charged fluid spheres and finding interior Reissner-Nordstroem solutions for these objects. We consider both constant density and adiabatic equations of state, as well as several possible charge distributions, and examine stability by both a normal mode and an energy analysis. In all cases, the stability limit for these spheres lies between the extremal (Q=M) limit and the black hole limit (R=R + ). That is, we find that charged spheres undergo gravitational collapse before they reach Q=M, suggesting that extremal Reissner-Nordstroem black holes produced by collapse are ruled out. A general proof of this statement would support a strong form of the cosmic censorship hypothesis, excluding not only stable naked singularities, but stable extremal black holes. The numerical results also indicate that although the interior mass-energy m(R) obeys the usual m/R + as Q→M. In the Appendix we also argue that Hawking radiation will not lead to an extremal Reissner-Nordstroem black hole. All our results are consistent with the third law of black hole dynamics, as currently understood

Mentalizing animals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kasperbauer, Tyler Joshua

2017-01-01

Ethicists have tended to treat the psychology of attributing mental states to animals as an entirely separate issue from the moral importance of animals’ mental states. In this paper I bring these two issues together. I argue for two theses, one descriptive and one normative. The descriptive thesis...... holds that ordinary human agents use what are generally called phenomenal mental states (e.g., pain and other emotions) to assign moral considerability to animals. I examine recent empirical research on the attribution of phenomenal states and agential states (e.g., memory and intelligence) to argue...... that phenomenal mental states are the primary factor, psychologically, for judging an animal to be morally considerable. I further argue that, given the role of phenomenal states in assigning moral considerability, certain theories in animal ethics will meet significant psychological resistance. The normative...

Modelling of extreme minimum rainfall using generalised extreme value distribution for Zimbabwe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Delson Chikobvu

2015-09-01

Full Text Available We modelled the mean annual rainfall for data recorded in Zimbabwe from 1901 to 2009. Extreme value theory was used to estimate the probabilities of meteorological droughts. Droughts can be viewed as extreme events which go beyond and/or below normal rainfall occurrences, such as exceptionally low mean annual rainfall. The duality between the distribution of the minima and maxima was exploited and used to fit the generalised extreme value distribution (GEVD to the data and hence find probabilities of extreme low levels of mean annual rainfall. The augmented Dickey Fuller test confirmed that rainfall data were stationary, while the normal quantile-quantile plot indicated that rainfall data deviated from the normality assumption at both ends of the tails of the distribution. The maximum likelihood estimation method and the Bayesian approach were used to find the parameters of the GEVD. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodnessof- fit tests showed that the Weibull class of distributions was a good fit to the minima mean annual rainfall using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The mean return period estimate of a meteorological drought using the threshold value of mean annual rainfall of 473 mm was 8 years. This implies that if in the year there is a meteorological drought then another drought of the same intensity or greater is expected after 8 years. It is expected that the use of Bayesian inference may better quantify the level of uncertainty associated with the GEVD parameter estimates than with the maximum likelihood estimation method. The Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the GEVD was applied to construct the model parameter estimates using the Bayesian approach. These findings are significant because results based on non-informative priors (Bayesian method and the maximum likelihood method approach are expected to be similar.

AN EXTREMELY CARBON-RICH, EXTREMELY METAL-POOR STAR IN THE SEGUE 1 SYSTEM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Norris, John E.; Yong, David; Gilmore, Gerard; Wyse, Rosemary F. G.; Frebel, Anna

2010-01-01

We report the analysis of high-resolution, high signal-to-noise ratio, spectra of an extremely metal-poor, extremely C-rich red giant, Seg 1-7, in Segue 1-described in the literature alternatively as an unusually extended globular cluster or an ultra-faint dwarf galaxy. The radial velocity of Seg 1-7 coincides precisely with the systemic velocity of Segue 1, and its chemical abundance signature of [Fe/H] = -3.52, [C/Fe] = +2.3, [N/Fe] = +0.8, [Na/Fe] = +0.53, [Mg/Fe] = +0.94, [Al/Fe] = +0.23, and [Ba/Fe] < -1.0 is similar to that of the rare and enigmatic class of Galactic halo objects designated CEMP-no (carbon-rich, extremely metal-poor with no enhancement (over solar ratios) of heavy neutron-capture elements). This is the first star in a Milky Way 'satellite' that unambiguously lies on the metal-poor, C-rich branch of the Aoki et al. bimodal distribution of field halo stars in the ([C/Fe], [Fe/H])-plane. Available data permit us only to identify Seg 1-7 as a member of an ultra-faint dwarf galaxy or as debris from the Sgr dwarf spheroidal galaxy. In either case, this demonstrates that at extremely low abundance, [Fe/H ] <-3.0, star formation and associated chemical evolution proceeded similarly in the progenitors of both the field halo and satellite systems. By extension, this is consistent with other recent suggestions that the most metal-poor dwarf spheroidal and ultra-faint dwarf satellites were the building blocks of the Galaxy's outer halo.

Extremism from the perspective of a system approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zinchenko, Yury P.

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Extremism is seen as a complex, multilevel, and multicomponent phenomenon. The problems of modern science in understanding extremism are revealed. The following bases of extremism as a system phenomenon are singled out: social factors, latent extremism, and extremist acts. It is demonstrated that a system approach makes it possible to shape a notion of a subject as a system, to identify patterns of the manifestations of the given phenomenon, and to translate them into concrete practices.

Extremity x-ray

Science.gov (United States)

... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003461.htm Extremity x-ray To use the sharing features on this page, ... in the body Risks There is low-level radiation exposure. X-rays are monitored and regulated to provide the ...

Statistics of Extremes

KAUST Repository

Davison, Anthony C.; Huser, Raphaë l

2015-01-01

Statistics of extremes concerns inference for rare events. Often the events have never yet been observed, and their probabilities must therefore be estimated by extrapolation of tail models fitted to available data. Because data concerning the event

Seasonal temperature extremes in Potsdam

Science.gov (United States)

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew; Huang, Shaochun

2010-12-01

The awareness of global warming is well established and results from the observations made on thousands of stations. This paper complements the large-scale results by examining a long time-series of high-quality temperature data from the Secular Meteorological Station in Potsdam, where observation records over the last 117 years, i.e., from January 1893 are available. Tendencies of change in seasonal temperature-related climate extremes are demonstrated. "Cold" extremes have become less frequent and less severe than in the past, while "warm" extremes have become more frequent and more severe. Moreover, the interval of the occurrence of frost has been decreasing, while the interval of the occurrence of hot days has been increasing. However, many changes are not statistically significant, since the variability of temperature indices at the Potsdam station has been very strong.

« L’Amazonie – victime des changements climatiques ? » « The Amazon forest – victim of climate change? » « A Amazônia – vítima das mudanças climáticas ? »

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Delaine Sampaio da Silva

2010-12-01

Full Text Available La forêt d’Amazonie est un des biomes les plus riches et les plus importants de la Terre. Cependant, son avenir est gravement menacé par les changements climatiques. L’effet de ces changements est indissociable de celui des activités humaines. Ainsi, la déforestation est responsable de plus de la moitié des émissions de gaz à effet de serre du Brésil. La lutte contre les changements climatique au Brésil passe donc en premier lieu par la lutte contre la déforestation. Cette lutte fait face aux enjeux actuels du développement en Amazonie, en premier lieu l’élevage et l’agriculture à grande échelle. Certains éléments des politiques récentes du Brésil vont dans le sens d’un développement moins « sauvage » en Amazonie, mais se heurtent à des intérêts économiques et politiques. Les initiatives internationales comme Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD, dans le cadre d’un accord climatique, peuvent fournir des incitatifs économiques cruciaux. Il est dans tous les cas primordial qu’un tel développement soit adapté à la réalité amazonienne et se fasse en collaboration avec les populations locales dans une optique de développement social autant qu’écologique ou économique.The Amazon rainforest is one of most important ecosystems on earth and a biodiversity hotspot. Its future is however in peril due to the effects of climate change and human activities. Climate models predict a severe die-back of the Amazon forest by the end of this century, accompanied by the release of vast quantities of carbon actually stored in the vegetation. Deforestation is currently responsible for over one half of Brazil’s greenhouse gas emissions. Fighting deforestation is therefore Brazil’s most efficient way to reduce its emissions. This is however contrary to current development schemes in the Amazon region, and in particular large scale agricultural and cattle raising farms. However, Brazil

(When and where) Do extreme climate events trigger extreme ecosystem responses? - Development and initial results of a holistic analysis framework

Science.gov (United States)

Hauber, Eva K.; Donner, Reik V.

2015-04-01

In the context of ongoing climate change, extremes are likely to increase in magnitude and frequency. One of the most important consequences of these changes is that the associated ecological risks and impacts are potentially rising as well. In order to better anticipate and understand these impacts, it therefore becomes more and more crucial to understand the general connection between climate extremes and the response and functionality of ecosystems. Among other region of the world, Europe presents an excellent test case for studies concerning the interaction between climate and biosphere, since it lies in the transition region between cold polar and warm tropical air masses and thus covers a great variety of different climatic zones and associated terrestrial ecosystems. The large temperature differences across the continent make this region particularly interesting for investigating the effects of climate change on biosphere-climate interactions. However, previously used methods for defining an extreme event typically disregard the necessity of taking seasonality as well as seasonal variance appropriately into account. Furthermore, most studies have focused on the impacts of individual extreme events instead of considering a whole inventory of extremes with their respective spatio-temporal extents. In order to overcome the aforementioned research gaps, this work introduces a new approach to studying climate-biosphere interactions associated with extreme events, which comprises three consecutive steps: (1) Since Europe exhibits climatic conditions characterized by marked seasonality, a novel method is developed to define extreme events taking into account the seasonality in all quantiles of the probability distribution of the respective variable of interest. This is achieved by considering kernel density estimates individually for each observation date during the year, including the properly weighted information from adjacent dates. By this procedure, we obtain

Comparison of the Effects of Walking with and without Nordic Pole on Upper Extremity and Lower Extremity Muscle Activation.

Science.gov (United States)

Shim, Je-Myung; Kwon, Hae-Yeon; Kim, Ha-Roo; Kim, Bo-In; Jung, Ju-Hyeon

2013-12-01

[Purpose] The aim of this study was to assess the effect of Nordic pole walking on the electromyographic activities of upper extremity and lower extremity muscles. [Subjects and Methods] The subjects were randomly divided into two groups as follows: without Nordic pole walking group (n=13) and with Nordic pole walking group (n=13). The EMG data were collected by measurement while the subjects walking on a treadmill for 30 minutes by measuring from one heel strike to the next. [Results] Both the average values and maximum values of the muscle activity of the upper extremity increased in both the group that used Nordic poles and the group that did not use Nordic poles, and the values showed statistically significant differences. There was an increase in the average value for muscle activity of the latissimus dorsi, but the difference was not statistically significant, although there was a statistically significant increase in its maximum value. The average and maximum values for muscle activity of the lower extremity did not show large differences in either group, and the values did not show any statistically significant differences. [Conclusion] The use of Nordic poles by increased muscle activity of the upper extremity compared with regular walking but did not affect the lower extremity.

Adventure and Extreme Sports.

Science.gov (United States)

Gomez, Andrew Thomas; Rao, Ashwin

2016-03-01

Adventure and extreme sports often involve unpredictable and inhospitable environments, high velocities, and stunts. These activities vary widely and include sports like BASE jumping, snowboarding, kayaking, and surfing. Increasing interest and participation in adventure and extreme sports warrants understanding by clinicians to facilitate prevention, identification, and treatment of injuries unique to each sport. This article covers alpine skiing and snowboarding, skateboarding, surfing, bungee jumping, BASE jumping, and whitewater sports with emphasis on epidemiology, demographics, general injury mechanisms, specific injuries, chronic injuries, fatality data, and prevention. Overall, most injuries are related to overuse, trauma, and environmental or microbial exposure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Atomic collisions under extreme conditions in space

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Itikawa, Yukikazu

1987-01-01

In space, atoms and molecules are often placed under the extreme conditions which are very difficult to be realized on Earth. For instance, extremely hot and dense plasmas are found in and around various stellar objects (e.g., neutron stars) on one hand and extremely cold and diffuse gases prevail in interstellar space on the other. There is so strong a magnetic field that electron clouds in atoms and molecules are distorted. The study of atomic collisions under the extreme conditions is not only helpful in understanding the astrophysical environment but also reveals new aspects of the physics of atoms and molecules. This paper is an invitation to the study. (References are not exhaustive but only provide a clue with which more details can be found.) (author)

Multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Willems, Patrick

2013-04-01

Many studies have anticipated a worldwide increase in the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes and floods since the last decade(s). Natural variability by climate oscillations partly determines the observed evolution of precipitation extremes. Based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles, it is shown that hydrological extremes have oscillatory behaviour at multidecadal time scales. Results are based on nearly independent extremes extracted from long-term historical time series of precipitation intensities and river flows. Study regions include Belgium - The Netherlands (Meuse basin), Ethiopia (Blue Nile basin) and Ecuador (Paute basin). For Belgium - The Netherlands, the past 100 years showed larger and more hydrological extremes around the 1910s, 1950-1960s, and more recently during the 1990-2000s. Interestingly, the oscillations for southwestern Europe are anti-correlated with these of northwestern Europe, thus with oscillation highs in the 1930-1940s and 1970s. The precipitation oscillation peaks are explained by persistence in atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic during periods of 10 to 15 years. References: Ntegeka V., Willems P. (2008), 'Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes, based on a more than 100 years time series of 10 minutes rainfall intensities at Uccle, Belgium', Water Resources Research, 44, W07402, doi:10.1029/2007WR006471 Mora, D., Willems, P. (2012), 'Decadal oscillations in rainfall and air temperature in the Paute River Basin - Southern Andes of Ecuador', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(1), 267-282, doi:0.1007/s00704-011-0527-4 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2011). 'Influence of climate variability on representative QDF predictions of the upper Blue Nile Basin', Journal of Hydrology, 411, 355-365, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.019 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2012). 'Temporal variability of hydro-climatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin', Water

Enhancing the Extreme Climate Index (ECI) to monitor climate extremes for an index-based insurance scheme across Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Helmschrot, J.; Malherbe, J.; Chamunorwa, M.; Muthige, M.; Petitta, M.; Calmanti, S.; Cucchi, M.; Syroka, J.; Iyahen, E.; Engelbrecht, F.

2017-12-01

Climate services are a key component of National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes, which require the analysis of current climate conditions, future climate change scenarios and the identification of adaptation strategies, including the capacity to finance and implement effective adaptation options. The Extreme Climate Facility (XCF) proposed by the African Risk Capacity (ARC) developed a climate index insurance scheme, which is based on the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events, thus indicating possible shifts to a new climate regime in various regions. The main hazards covered by ECI are extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding other region-specific risk events. The ECI is standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be compared. Initially developed by an Italian company specialized in Climate Services, research is now conducted at the CSIR and SASSCAL, to verify and further develop the ECI for application in southern African countries, through a project initiated by the World Food Programme (WFP) and ARC. The paper will present findings on the most appropriate definitions of extremely wet and dry conditions in Africa, in terms of their impact across a multitude of sub-regional climates of the African continent. Findings of a verification analysis of the ECI, as determined through vegetation monitoring data and the SASSCAL weather station network will be discussed. Changes in the ECI under climate change will subsequently be projected, using detailed regional projections generated by the CSIR and through the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This work will be concluded by the development of a web-based climate service informing African Stakeholders on climate extremes.

Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-01

The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

Spatial extreme value analysis to project extremes of large-scale indicators for severe weather.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilleland, Eric; Brown, Barbara G; Ammann, Caspar M

2013-09-01

Concurrently high values of the maximum potential wind speed of updrafts ( W max ) and 0-6 km wind shear (Shear) have been found to represent conducive environments for severe weather, which subsequently provides a way to study severe weather in future climates. Here, we employ a model for the product of these variables (WmSh) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research/United States National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis over North America conditioned on their having extreme energy in the spatial field in order to project the predominant spatial patterns of WmSh. The approach is based on the Heffernan and Tawn conditional extreme value model. Results suggest that this technique estimates the spatial behavior of WmSh well, which allows for exploring possible changes in the patterns over time. While the model enables a method for inferring the uncertainty in the patterns, such analysis is difficult with the currently available inference approach. A variation of the method is also explored to investigate how this type of model might be used to qualitatively understand how the spatial patterns of WmSh correspond to extreme river flow events. A case study for river flows from three rivers in northwestern Tennessee is studied, and it is found that advection of WmSh from the Gulf of Mexico prevails while elsewhere, WmSh is generally very low during such extreme events. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics published by JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd.

Nutrition security under extreme events

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez, A.

2017-12-01

Nutrition security under extreme events. Zero hunger being one of the Sustainable Development Goal from the United Nations, food security has become a trending research topic. However extreme events impact on global food security is not yet 100% understood and there is a lack of comprehension of the underlying mechanisms of global food trade and nutrition security to improve countries resilience to extreme events. In a globalized world, food is still a highly regulated commodity and a strategic resource. A drought happening in a net food-exporter will have little to no effect on its own population but the repercussion on net food-importers can be extreme. In this project, we propose a methodology to describe and quantify the impact of a local drought to human health at a global scale. For this purpose, nutrition supply and global trade data from FAOSTAT have been used with domestic food production from national agencies and FAOSTAT, global precipitation from the Climate Research Unit and health data from the World Health Organization. A modified Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) has been developed to measure the level of resilience of one country to a drought happening in another country. This index describes how a country is dependent of importation and how diverse are its importation. Losses of production and exportation due to extreme events have been calculated using yield data and a simple food balance at country scale. Results show that countries the most affected by global droughts are the one with the highest dependency to one exporting country. Changes induced by droughts also disturbed their domestic proteins, fat and calories supply resulting most of the time in a higher intake of calories or fat over proteins.

Superradiantly stable non-extremal Reissner-Nordstroem black holes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang, Jia-Hui [School of Physics and Telecommunication Engineering, South China Normal University, Laboratory of Quantum Engineering and Quantum Materials, Guangzhou (China); Mai, Zhan-Feng [Beijing Normal University, Department of Physics, Center for Advanced Quantum Studies, Beijing (China)

2016-06-15

The superradiant stability is investigated for non-extremal Reissner-Nordstroem black holes. We use an algebraic method to demonstrate that all non-extremal Reissner-Nordstroem black holes are superradiantly stable against a charged massive scalar perturbation. This improves the results obtained before for non-extremal Reissner-Nordstroem black holes. (orig.)

Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jun; Pei, Ying; Zhang, Yanwei; Ge, Quansheng

2018-05-01

This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity-humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.

Cardiovascular consequences of extreme prematurity: the EPICure study.

Science.gov (United States)

McEniery, Carmel M; Bolton, Charlotte E; Fawke, Joseph; Hennessy, Enid; Stocks, Janet; Wilkinson, Ian B; Cockcroft, John R; Marlow, Neil

2011-07-01

The long-term consequences of extreme prematurity are becoming increasingly important, given recent improvements in neonatal intensive care. The aim of the current study was to examine the cardiovascular consequences of extreme prematurity in 11-year-olds born at or before 25 completed weeks of gestation. Age and sex-matched classmates were recruited as controls. Information concerning perinatal and maternal history was collected, and current anthropometric characteristics were measured in 219 children born extremely preterm and 153 classmates. A subset of the extremely preterm children (n = 68) and classmates (n = 90) then underwent detailed haemodynamic investigations, including measurement of supine blood pressure (BP), aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV, a measure of aortic stiffness) and augmentation index (AIx, a measure of arterial pressure wave reflections). Seated brachial systolic and diastolic BP were not different between extremely preterm children and classmates (P = 0.3 for both), although there was a small, significant elevation in supine mean and diastolic BP in the extremely preterm children (P prematurity is associated with altered arterial haemodynamics in children, not evident from the examination of brachial BP alone. Moreover, the smaller, preresistance and resistance vessels rather than large elastic arteries appear to be most affected. Children born extremely preterm may be at increased future cardiovascular risk.

A compliant mechanism for inspecting extremely confined spaces

Science.gov (United States)

Mascareñas, David; Moreu, Fernando; Cantu, Precious; Shields, Daniel; Wadden, Jack; El Hadedy, Mohamed; Farrar, Charles

2017-11-01

We present a novel, compliant mechanism that provides the capability to navigate extremely confined spaces for the purpose of infrastructure inspection. Extremely confined spaces are commonly encountered during infrastructure inspection. Examples of such spaces can include pipes, conduits, and ventilation ducts. Often these infrastructure features go uninspected simply because there is no viable way to access their interior. In addition, it is not uncommon for extremely confined spaces to possess a maze-like architecture that must be selectively navigated in order to properly perform an inspection. Efforts by the imaging sensor community have resulted in the development of imaging sensors on the millimeter length scale. Due to their compact size, they are able to inspect many extremely confined spaces of interest, however, the means to deliver these sensors to the proper location to obtain the desired images are lacking. To address this problem, we draw inspiration from the field of endoscopic surgery. Specifically we consider the work that has already been done to create long flexible needles that are capable of being steered through the human body. These devices are typically referred to as ‘steerable needles.’ Steerable needle technology is not directly applicable to the problem of navigating maze-like arrangements of extremely confined spaces, but it does provide guidance on how this problem should be approached. Specifically, the super-elastic nitinol tubing material that allows steerable needles to operate is also appropriate for the problem of navigating maze-like arrangements of extremely confined spaces. Furthermore, the portion of the mechanism that enters the extremely confined space is completely mechanical in nature. The mechanical nature of the device is an advantage when the extremely confined space features environmental hazards such as radiation that could degrade an electromechanically operated mechanism. Here, we present a compliant mechanism

PREDICTION OF THE EXTREMAL SHAPE FACTOR OF SPHEROIDAL PARTICLES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Hlubinka

2011-05-01

Full Text Available In the stereological unfolding problem for spheroidal particles the extremal shape factor is predicted. The theory of extreme values has been used to show that extremes of the planar shape factor of particle sections tend to the same limit distribution as extremes of the original shape factor for both the conditional and marginal distribution. Attention is then paid to the extreme shape factor conditioned by the particle size. Normalizing constants are evaluated for a parametric model and the numerical procedure is tested on real data from metallography.

CFT duals for extreme black holes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartman, Thomas; Strominger, Andrew; Murata, Keiju; Nishioka, Tatsuma

2009-01-01

It is argued that the general four-dimensional extremal Kerr-Newman-AdS-dS black hole is holographically dual to a (chiral half of a) two-dimensional CFT, generalizing an argument given recently for the special case of extremal Kerr. Specifically, the asymptotic symmetries of the near-horizon region of the general extremal black hole are shown to be generated by a Virasoro algebra. Semiclassical formulae are derived for the central charge and temperature of the dual CFT as functions of the cosmological constant, Newton's constant and the black hole charges and spin. We then show, assuming the Cardy formula, that the microscopic entropy of the dual CFT precisely reproduces the macroscopic Bekenstein-Hawking area law. This CFT description becomes singular in the extreme Reissner-Nordstrom limit where the black hole has no spin. At this point a second dual CFT description is proposed in which the global part of the U(1) gauge symmetry is promoted to a Virasoro algebra. This second description is also found to reproduce the area law. Various further generalizations including higher dimensions are discussed.

Extreme waves at Filyos, southern Black Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Bilyay

2011-03-01

Full Text Available A wave measurement project was carried out for a new port planned in Filyos, in the Western Black Sea region of Turkey. The measurement at a depth of 12.5 m lasted for a period of two years and 7949 records were obtained. During the analysis, it was noticed that there were 209 records in which H/H_s ratio was higher than 2.0. These higher waves in a record are called extreme waves in this study. Although the purpose of wave measurement is not to investigate extreme waves, it is believed that studying these unexpected waves could be interesting. Therefore, detailed statistical and spectral analyses on the extreme waves were done for the records. The analyses results show that the distribution of surface profiles of the records containing extreme waves deviates from Gaussian distribution with the negative skewness changing between –0.01 and –0.4 and with the high kurtosis in the range of 3.1–4.2. Although the probability of occurrence of the extreme waves is over-predicted by the Rayleigh distribution, a higher ratio of H_s/η_rms indicates that the wave height distribution can be represented by Rayleigh. The average value of the slope of the frequency spectrum at the high frequency range is proportional to f^–9 which is much steeper than the typical wind-wave frequency power law, f^{–4, –5}. The directional spreading is measured with the parameter S_max and it is in the range of 5–70 for the extreme wave records. The wave and current interaction was also investigated and it was found that in most cases, extreme waves occur when the wave and the current are almost aligned. Furthermore, it is observed that extreme waves appear within a group of high waves.

Hygienic diagnosis in extreme conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sofronov, G.A.

1997-01-01

Review for book by M.P. Zakharchenko, S.A. Lopatin, G.N. Novozhilov, V.I. Zakharov Hygienic diagnosis in extreme conditions is presented discussing the problem of people health preservation under extreme conditions. Hygienic diagnosis is considered illustrated by cases of hostilities (Afghan War), earthquake response in Armenia (1988) and Chernobyl accident response. Attention is paid to the estimation of radiation doses to people and characteristics of main types of dosimeters. The high scientific level of the book is marked

Extreme event statistics in a drifting Markov chain

Science.gov (United States)

Kindermann, Farina; Hohmann, Michael; Lausch, Tobias; Mayer, Daniel; Schmidt, Felix; Widera, Artur

2017-07-01

We analyze extreme event statistics of experimentally realized Markov chains with various drifts. Our Markov chains are individual trajectories of a single atom diffusing in a one-dimensional periodic potential. Based on more than 500 individual atomic traces we verify the applicability of the Sparre Andersen theorem to our system despite the presence of a drift. We present detailed analysis of four different rare-event statistics for our system: the distributions of extreme values, of record values, of extreme value occurrence in the chain, and of the number of records in the chain. We observe that, for our data, the shape of the extreme event distributions is dominated by the underlying exponential distance distribution extracted from the atomic traces. Furthermore, we find that even small drifts influence the statistics of extreme events and record values, which is supported by numerical simulations, and we identify cases in which the drift can be determined without information about the underlying random variable distributions. Our results facilitate the use of extreme event statistics as a signal for small drifts in correlated trajectories.

Recent and future extreme precipitation over Ukraine

Science.gov (United States)

Vyshkvarkova, Olena; Voskresenskaya, Elena

2014-05-01

The aim of study is to analyze the parameters of precipitation extremes and inequality over Ukraine in recent climate epoch and their possible changes in the future. Data of observations from 28 hydrometeorological stations over Ukraine and output of GFDL-CM3 model (CMIP5) for XXI century were used in the study. The methods of concentration index (J. Martin-Vide, 2004) for the study of precipitation inequality while the extreme precipitation indices recommended by the ETCCDI - for the frequency of events. Results. Precipitation inequality on the annual and seasonal scales was studied using estimated CI series for 1951-2005. It was found that annual CI ranges vary from 0.58 to 0.64. They increase southward from the north-west (forest zone) and the north-east (forest steppe zone) of Ukraine. CI maxima are located in the coastal regions of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Annual CI spatial distribution indicates that the contribution of extreme precipitation into annual totals is most significant at the boundary zone between steppe and marine regions. At the same time precipitation pattern at the foothill of Carpathian Mountains is more homogenous. The CI minima (0.54) are typical for the winter season in foothill of Ukrainian Carpathians. The CI maxima reach 0.71 in spring at the steppe zone closed to the Black Sea coast. It should be noted that the greatest ranges of CI maximum and CI minimum deviation are typical for spring. It is associated with patterns of cyclone trajectories in that season. The most territory is characterized by tendency to decrease the contribution of extreme precipitation into the total amount (CI linear trends are predominantly negative in all seasons). Decadal and interdecadal variability of precipitation inequality associated with global processes in ocean-atmosphere system are also studied. It was shown that precipitation inequality over Ukraine on 10 - 15 % stronger in negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and in positive phase

Changes in the probability of co-occurring extreme climate events

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Extreme climate events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and severe storms exert acute stresses on natural and human systems. When multiple extreme events co-occur, either in space or time, the impacts can be substantially compounded. A diverse set of human interests - including supply chains, agricultural commodities markets, reinsurance, and deployment of humanitarian aid - have historically relied on the rarity of extreme events to provide a geographic hedge against the compounded impacts of co-occuring extremes. However, changes in the frequency of extreme events in recent decades imply that the probability of co-occuring extremes is also changing, and is likely to continue to change in the future in response to additional global warming. This presentation will review the evidence for historical changes in extreme climate events and the response of extreme events to continued global warming, and will provide some perspective on methods for quantifying changes in the probability of co-occurring extremes in the past and future.

Lymphoscintigraphy of the lower extremity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abbasi, N.Z.

1990-01-01

Fifty one lower extremities of 26 normal healthy volunteers and 26 extremities of 13 patients with oedema have been studied. Dynamic quantitative lymphoscintigraphy using 99Tc-m antimony sulphide colloid during passive exercise as well as before and after active exercise was performed. parameters of lymphatic function including percentage of radioactivity cleared from the injection site, the percentage uptake by the inguinal lymph nodes, the time of arrival of activity at the regional lymph nodes and the lymphatic reserve index have been evaluated. The percentage clearance of activity from the injection site was found technically difficult to standardize and proved to be an unreliable parameter of lymphatic function. However, the quantitation of nodal uptake, the lymphatic transit time and the lymphatic reserve capacity accurately depicted the lymphatic functional status of an individual. The physiologic parameters of lymphatic function of the contralateral lower extremities were compared and a physiologic difference in the lymphatic capacity of the two limbs was scintigraphically documented. (author)

Is southwestern China experiencing more frequent precipitation extremes?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Meixian; Xu, Xianli; Wang, Kelin; Sun, Alexander Y; Liu, Wen; Zhang, Xiaoyan

2014-01-01

Climate extremes have and will continue to cause severe damages to buildings and natural environments around the world. A full knowledge of the probability of the climate extremes is important for the management and mitigation of natural hazards. Based on Mann–Kendall trend test and copulas, this study investigated the characteristics of precipitation extremes as well as their implications in southwestern China (Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou Province), through analyzing the changing trends and probabilistic characteristics of six indices, including the consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, annual total wet day precipitation, heavy precipitation days (R25), max 5 day precipitation amount (Rx5) and the rainy days (RDs). Results showed that the study area had generally become drier (regional mean annual precipitation decreased by 11.4 mm per decade) and experienced enhanced precipitation extremes in the past 60 years. Relatively higher risk of drought in Yuanan and flood in Guangxi was observed, respectively. However, the changing trends of the precipitation extremes were not spatially uniform: increasing risk of extreme wet events for Guangxi and Guizhou, and increasing probability of concurrent extreme wet and dry events for Yunnan. Meanwhile, trend analyses of the 10 year return levels of the selected indices implied that the severity of droughts decreased in Yunnan but increased significantly in Guangxi and Guizhou, and the severity of floods increased in Yunnan and Guangxi in the past decades. Hence, the policy-makers need to be aware of the different characterizations and the spatial heterogeneity of the precipitation extremes. (letters)

Climate change and the development of mountain areas: what do we need to know and for what types of action?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Didier Richard

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change is today a reality at both the international and more local levels. Recent studies have focussed mainly on analysing the consequences of climate change. The present article seeks to examine and qualify the impact of climate change in the mountain areas of the Alps. A first line of enquiry concerns the changing level of danger in the mountain environment. Are mountain areas becoming more dangerous and, if so, in terms of what types of risks and to what degree? However, adopting an approach based on an analysis of natural hazards and their dynamics in response to climate change cannot ignore the economic activities and types of development that already exist in these areas. In this respect, the tourism economy is predominant in mountain regions. Its durability and vitality undoubtedly constitute a priority for local actors. It is not surprising therefore that the latter have set up strategies for adapting to climate change. For planners and decision-makers to ensure integrated approaches in dealing with climate change, it is important that the complex links between natural risks and the types of development in mountain areas are better understood, which calls for a more detailed analysis of the environment in terms of territorial vulnerability.Le changement climatique est aujourd’hui une réalité au niveau international comme à celui des territoires locaux. Les travaux récents mettent préférentiellement l’accent sur l’analyse des conséquences du changement climatique. Cet article se propose de questionner et de qualifier l’impact du changement climatique dans les territoires montagnards des Alpes. Un premier axe de réflexion concerne l’évolution de la dangerosité de la montagne. Une montagne plus dangereuse se profile-t-elle ? Selon quels types de risques et avec quelles intensités ? Cependant, l’approche des risques naturels et de leur dynamique face au changement climatique ne saurait occulter le type d�

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) about Extreme Heat

Science.gov (United States)

... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

Community responses to extreme climatic conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frédéric JIGUET, Lluis BROTONS, Vincent DEVICTOR

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Species assemblages and natural communities are increasingly impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events. Here we propose a brief overview of expected and demonstrated direct and indirect impacts of extreme events on animal communities. We show that differential impacts on basic biological parameters of individual species can lead to strong changes in community composition and structure with the potential to considerably modify the functional traits of the community. Sudden disequilibria have even been shown to induce irreversible shifts in marine ecosystems, while cascade effects on various taxonomic groups have been highlighted in Mediterranean forests. Indirect effects of extreme climatic events are expected when event-induced habitat changes (e.g. soil stability, vegetation composition, water flows altered by droughts, floods or hurricanes have differential consequences on species assembled within the communities. Moreover, in increasing the amplitude of trophic mismatches, extreme events are likely to turn many systems into ecological traps under climate change. Finally, we propose a focus on the potential impacts of an extreme heat wave on local assemblages as an empirical case study, analysing monitoring data on breeding birds collected in France. In this example, we show that despite specific populations were differently affected by local temperature anomalies, communities seem to be unaffected by a sudden heat wave. These results suggest that communities are tracking climate change at the highest possible rate [Current Zoology 57 (3: 406–413, 2011].

Rhabdomyosarcoma of the extremity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rao, Bhaskar N

1997-01-01

Rhabdomyosarcoma is the most common soft tissue sarcoma accounting for almost 55%. These tumors arise from unsegmented mesoderm or primitive mesenchyma, which have the capacity to differentiate into muscle. Less than 5% occur in the first year of life. Extremity rhabdomyosarcoma are mainly seen in the adolescent years. The most common histologic subtype is the alveolar variant. Other characteristics of extremity rhabdomyosarcoma include a predilection for lymph node metastasis, a high local failure, and a relatively low survival rate. They often present as slow painless masses; however, lesions in the hand and foot often present as painful masses and imaging studies may show invasion of the bone. Initial diagnostic approaches include needle biopsy or incisional biopsy for larger lesions. Excisional biopsy is indicated preferably for lesions less than 2.5 cm. following this in most instances therapy is initiated with multi agent chemotherapy depending upon response, the next modality may be either surgery with intent to cure or radiation therapy. Amputation of an extremity for local control is not considered in most instances. Prognostic factors that have been determined over the years to be of significance by multi variant analysis have included age, tumor size, invasiveness, presence of either nodal or distant metastasis, and complete excision whenever feasible, with supplemental radiation therapy for local control

Variability of extreme wet events over Malawi

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Libanda Brigadier

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Adverse effects of extreme wet events are well documented by several studies around the world. These effects are exacerbated in developing countries like Malawi that have insufficient risk reduction strategies and capacity to cope with extreme wet weather. Ardent monitoring of the variability of extreme wet events over Malawi is therefore imperative. The use of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI has been recommended by many studies as an effective way of quantifying extreme wet events. In this study, ETCCDI indices were used to examine the number of heavy, very heavy, and extremely heavy rainfall days; daily and five-day maximum rainfall; very wet and extremely wet days; annual wet days and simple daily intensity. The Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT was employed at 5% significance level before any statistical test was done. Trend analysis was done using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall statistical test. All stations were found to be homogeneous apart from Mimosa. Trend results show high temporal and spatial variability with the only significant results being: increase in daily maximum rainfall (Rx1day over Karonga and Bvumbwe, increase in five-day maximum rainfall (Rx5day over Bvumbwe. Mzimba and Chileka recorded a significant decrease in very wet days (R95p while a significant increase was observed over Thyolo. Chileka was the only station which observed a significant trend (decrease in extremely wet rainfall (R99p. Mzimba was the only station that reported a significant trend (decrease in annual wet-day rainfall total (PRCPTOT and Thyolo was the only station that reported a significant trend (increase in simple daily intensity (SDII. Furthermore, the findings of this study revealed that, during wet years, Malawi is characterised by an anomalous convergence of strong south-easterly and north-easterly winds. This convergence is the main rain bringing mechanism to Malawi.

Tukey max-stable processes for spatial extremes

KAUST Repository

Xu, Ganggang; Genton, Marc G.

2016-01-01

We propose a new type of max-stable process that we call the Tukey max-stable process for spatial extremes. It brings additional flexibility to modeling dependence structures among spatial extremes. The statistical properties of the Tukey max

Lower extremity muscle activation during baseball pitching.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Brian M; Stodden, David F; Nixon, Megan K

2010-04-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate muscle activation levels of select lower extremity muscles during the pitching motion. Bilateral surface electromyography data on 5 lower extremity muscles (biceps femoris, rectus femoris, gluteus maximus, vastus medialis, and gastrocnemius) were collected on 11 highly skilled baseball pitchers and compared with individual maximal voluntary isometric contraction (MVIC) data. The pitching motion was divided into 4 distinct phases: phase 1, initiation of pitching motion to maximum stride leg knee height; phase 2, maximum stride leg knee height to stride foot contact (SFC); phase 3, SFC to ball release; and phase 4, ball release to 0.5 seconds after ball release (follow-through). Results indicated that trail leg musculature elicited moderate to high activity levels during phases 2 and 3 (38-172% of MVIC). Muscle activity levels of the stride leg were moderate to high during phases 2-4 (23-170% of MVIC). These data indicate a high demand for lower extremity strength and endurance. Specifically, coaches should incorporate unilateral and bilateral lower extremity exercises for strength improvement or maintenance and to facilitate dynamic stabilization of the lower extremities during the pitching motion.

Near-horizon symmetries of extremal black holes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kunduri, Hari K; Lucietti, James; Reall, Harvey S

2007-01-01

Recent work has demonstrated an attractor mechanism for extremal rotating black holes subject to the assumption of a near-horizon SO(2, 1) symmetry. We prove the existence of this symmetry for any extremal black hole with the same number of rotational symmetries as known four- and five-dimensional solutions (including black rings). The result is valid for a general two-derivative theory of gravity coupled to Abelian vectors and uncharged scalars, allowing for a non-trivial scalar potential. We prove that it remains valid in the presence of higher-derivative corrections. We show that SO(2, 1)-symmetric near-horizon solutions can be analytically continued to give SU(2)-symmetric black hole solutions. For example, the near-horizon limit of an extremal 5D Myers-Perry black hole is related by analytic continuation to a non-extremal cohomogeneity-1 Myers-Perry solution

Meaning and Forms of Political Extremism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Uwe Backes

2007-12-01

Full Text Available The article seeks to contribute to the conceptualisation of political extremism and to lay a foundation for further theoretical studies which are explanatory in nature. A sketch of the history of the concepts follows a discussion of structural characteristics and then a typological examination of forms of extremism, particularly those of the 20th and 21st century.

Extremely strict ideals in Banach spaces

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Abstract. Motivated by the notion of an ideal introduced by Godefroy et al. (Stu- dia Math. 104 (1993) 13–59), in this article, we introduce and study the notion of an extremely strict ideal. For a Poulsen simplex K, we show that the space of affine contin- uous functions on K is an extremely strict ideal in the space of continuous ...

Long term oscillations in Danish rainfall extremes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

The frequent flooding of European cities within the last decade has motivated a vast number of studies, among others addressing the non-stationary behaviour of hydrological extremes driven by anthropogenic climate change. However, when considering future extremes it also becomes relevant to search...... for and understand natural variations on which the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study identifies multi-decadal variations in six 137-years-long diurnal rainfall series from Denmark and southern Sweden, focusing on extremes with a reoccurrence level relevant for Danish drainage design. By means of a Peak...

Rational Calibration of Four IEC 61400-1 Extreme External Conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

2008-01-01

Based on a set of asymptotic statistical models on closed form this paper presents a rational and consistent calibration of four extreme external conditions defined in the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 61400-1 standard: extreme operating gust, extreme wind shear, extreme coheren...... and proposed specifications of the magnitudes of the extreme external wind conditions are highlighted and discussed using an illustrative example based on two selected terrain types. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....... gust with direction change and extreme wind direction change. These four extreme external conditions are used in the definition of six of the IEC 61400-1 ultimate load cases. The statistical models are based on simple and easily accessible mean wind speed and turbulence characteristics...

SPECIFICITY OF SELF-PRESERVATION MOTIVATION IN EXTREME SITUATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ekaterina Anatolevna Karacheva

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The article presents the results of the study motivation of self-preservation in an extreme situation. Usually extreme situation unfold from the point of view of functioning, health, high negative level mental stress and tension. The extreme situation is the situation of human activity to which man acts, carrying out certain activities. The article provides an overview of russian and foreign authors dealing with this problem. Theoretical models of motivation of self-preservation Z. Freud, A. Maslow, G. Murray, M. Magomed-Eminov. The study explores the leading motivation in an extreme situation and analyzed the levels of motivation of self-preservation. The study was conducted in the Afghan veterans, using a method of unfinished sentences and other. Identified two levels of motivation of self-preservation: individual and personal. Revealed that the motivation of self-preservation is the leading motivation in an extreme situation.

Statistical Model of Extreme Shear

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

2005-01-01

In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continuously increase the knowledge of wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describes the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of full-scale measurements recorded with a high sampling rate...

Extreme Conditions Modeling Workshop Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coe, R. G.; Neary, V. S.; Lawson, M. J.; Yu, Y.; Weber, J.

2014-07-01

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) hosted the Wave Energy Converter (WEC) Extreme Conditions Modeling (ECM) Workshop in Albuquerque, NM on May 13th-14th, 2014. The objective of the workshop was to review the current state of knowledge on how to model WECs in extreme conditions (e.g. hurricanes and other large storms) and to suggest how U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and national laboratory resources could be used to improve ECM methods for the benefit of the wave energy industry.

Constructions of identity through music in extreme-right subcultures

OpenAIRE

Stroud, Joseph James Iain

2014-01-01

This thesis examines the musical cultures associated with extreme-right politics, considering not only what this music projects about extreme-right ideology, but also the various ways in which music functions as part of a political subculture. This analysis extends beyond the stereotypical extreme-right music associated with the skinhead subculture, often referred to as Oi!, to incorporate extreme-right engagement with genres such as metal, folk, country and classical music. Th...

Prospect for extreme field science

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tajima, T. [Ludwig Maximilian Univ. and Max Planck Institute for Quantum Optics, Garching (Germany); Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Kyoto and KEK, Tsukuba (Japan)

2009-11-15

The kind of laser extreme light infrastructure (ELI) provides will usher in a class of experiments we have only dreamed of for years. The characteristics that ELI brings in include: the highest intensity ever, large fluence, and relatively high repetition rate. A personal view of the author on the prospect of harnessing this unprecedented opportunity for advancing science of extreme fields is presented. The first characteristic of ELI, its intensity, will allow us to access, as many have stressed already, extreme fields that hover around the Schwinger field or at the very least the neighboring fields in which vacuum begins to behave as a nonlinear medium. In this sense, we are seriously probing the 'material' property of vacuum and thus the property that theory of relativity itself described and will entail. We will probe both special theory and general theory of relativity in regimes that have been never tested so far. We may see a glimpse into the reach of relativity or even its breakdown in some extreme regimes. We will learn Einstein and may even go beyond Einstein, if our journey is led. Laser-driven acceleration both by the laser field itself and by the wakefield that is triggered in a plasma is huge. Energies, if not luminosity, we can access, may be unprecedented going far beyond TeV. The nice thing about ELI is that it has relatively high repetition rate and average fluence as compared with other extreme lasers. This high fluence can be a key element that leads to applications to high energy physics, such as gamma-gamma collider driver experiment, and some gamma ray experiments that may be relevant in the frontier of photo-nuclear physics, and atomic energy applications. Needless to say, high fluence is one of most important features that industrial and medical applications may need. If we are lucky, we may see a door opens at the frontier of novel physics that may not be available by any other means. (authors)

Plasma-assisted cleaning of extreme UV optics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dolgov, Alexandr Alexeevich

2018-01-01

Plasma-assisted cleaning of extreme UV optics EUV-induced surface plasma chemistry of photo-active agents The next generation of photolithography, extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, makes use of 13.5 nm radiation. The ionizing photon flux, and vacuum requirements create a challenging operating

GoPro-kypäräkameran kuvakulmat extreme-urheiluvideoissa

OpenAIRE

Hypén, Anssi

2013-01-01

Opinnäytetyössä tutkitaan GoPro-valmistajan kypäräkameran tavallisimpia videoiden kuvakulmia extreme-urheilulajeissa. Kuvakulmia tutkitaan GoPro viralliseen Youtube-videopalveluun ladattujen videoiden kautta, josta on poimittu yleisimpiä kuvakulmia extreme-urheilulajeissa. GoPro-kypäräkamera on alunperin suunniteltu extreme- ja seikkailu-urheiluun, joten opinnäytetyössä tutkitut kuvakulmat on rajattu tarkastelemaan vain extreme-urheilulajeissa käytettyjä kuvakulmia. Extreme-urheiluvideois...

Extremal vacuum black holes in higher dimensions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Figueras, Pau; Lucietti, James; Rangamani, Mukund; Kunduri, Hari K.

2008-01-01

We consider extremal black hole solutions to the vacuum Einstein equations in dimensions greater than five. We prove that the near-horizon geometry of any such black hole must possess an SO(2,1) symmetry in a special case where one has an enhanced rotational symmetry group. We construct examples of vacuum near-horizon geometries using the extremal Myers-Perry black holes and boosted Myers-Perry strings. The latter lead to near-horizon geometries of black ring topology, which in odd spacetime dimensions have the correct number of rotational symmetries to describe an asymptotically flat black object. We argue that a subset of these correspond to the near-horizon limit of asymptotically flat extremal black rings. Using this identification we provide a conjecture for the exact 'phase diagram' of extremal vacuum black rings with a connected horizon in odd spacetime dimensions greater than five.

Extreme values, regular variation and point processes

CERN Document Server

Resnick, Sidney I

1987-01-01

Extremes Values, Regular Variation and Point Processes is a readable and efficient account of the fundamental mathematical and stochastic process techniques needed to study the behavior of extreme values of phenomena based on independent and identically distributed random variables and vectors It presents a coherent treatment of the distributional and sample path fundamental properties of extremes and records It emphasizes the core primacy of three topics necessary for understanding extremes the analytical theory of regularly varying functions; the probabilistic theory of point processes and random measures; and the link to asymptotic distribution approximations provided by the theory of weak convergence of probability measures in metric spaces The book is self-contained and requires an introductory measure-theoretic course in probability as a prerequisite Almost all sections have an extensive list of exercises which extend developments in the text, offer alternate approaches, test mastery and provide for enj...

Extreme learning machines 2013 algorithms and applications

CERN Document Server

Toh, Kar-Ann; Romay, Manuel; Mao, Kezhi

2014-01-01

In recent years, ELM has emerged as a revolutionary technique of computational intelligence, and has attracted considerable attentions. An extreme learning machine (ELM) is a single layer feed-forward neural network alike learning system, whose connections from the input layer to the hidden layer are randomly generated, while the connections from the hidden layer to the output layer are learned through linear learning methods. The outstanding merits of extreme learning machine (ELM) are its fast learning speed, trivial human intervene and high scalability.   This book contains some selected papers from the International Conference on Extreme Learning Machine 2013, which was held in Beijing China, October 15-17, 2013. This conference aims to bring together the researchers and practitioners of extreme learning machine from a variety of fields including artificial intelligence, biomedical engineering and bioinformatics, system modelling and control, and signal and image processing, to promote research and discu...

Hidden conformal symmetry of extremal black holes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Bin; Long Jiang; Zhang Jiaju

2010-01-01

We study the hidden conformal symmetry of extremal black holes. We introduce a new set of conformal coordinates to write the SL(2,R) generators. We find that the Laplacian of the scalar field in many extremal black holes, including Kerr(-Newman), Reissner-Nordstrom, warped AdS 3 , and null warped black holes, could be written in terms of the SL(2,R) quadratic Casimir. This suggests that there exist dual conformal field theory (CFT) descriptions of these black holes. From the conformal coordinates, the temperatures of the dual CFTs could be read directly. For the extremal black hole, the Hawking temperature is vanishing. Correspondingly, only the left (right) temperature of the dual CFT is nonvanishing, and the excitations of the other sector are suppressed. In the probe limit, we compute the scattering amplitudes of the scalar off the extremal black holes and find perfect agreement with the CFT prediction.

16 CFR 1500.133 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; labeling.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Extremely flammable contact adhesives... REGULATIONS § 1500.133 Extremely flammable contact adhesives; labeling. (a) Extremely flammable contact adhesives, also known as contact bonding cements, when distributed in containers intended or suitable for...

Parsimonious Wavelet Kernel Extreme Learning Machine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Qin

2015-11-01

Full Text Available In this study, a parsimonious scheme for wavelet kernel extreme learning machine (named PWKELM was introduced by combining wavelet theory and a parsimonious algorithm into kernel extreme learning machine (KELM. In the wavelet analysis, bases that were localized in time and frequency to represent various signals effectively were used. Wavelet kernel extreme learning machine (WELM maximized its capability to capture the essential features in “frequency-rich” signals. The proposed parsimonious algorithm also incorporated significant wavelet kernel functions via iteration in virtue of Householder matrix, thus producing a sparse solution that eased the computational burden and improved numerical stability. The experimental results achieved from the synthetic dataset and a gas furnace instance demonstrated that the proposed PWKELM is efficient and feasible in terms of improving generalization accuracy and real time performance.

Hypothyroid-induced acute compartment syndrome in all extremities.

Science.gov (United States)

Musielak, Matthew C; Chae, Jung Hee

2016-12-20

Acute compartment syndrome (ACS) is an uncommon complication of uncontrolled hypothyroidism. If unrecognized, this can lead to ischemia, necrosis and potential limb loss. A 49-year-old female presented with the sudden onset of bilateral lower and upper extremity swelling and pain. The lower extremity anterior compartments were painful and tense. The extensor surface of the upper extremities exhibited swelling and pain. Motor function was intact, however, limited due to pain. Bilateral lower extremity fasciotomies were performed. Postoperative Day 1, upper extremity motor function decreased significantly and paresthesias occurred. She therefore underwent bilateral forearm fasciotomies. The pathogenesis of hypothyroidism-induced compartment syndrome is unclear. Thyroid-stimulating hormone-induced fibroblast activation results in increased glycosaminoglycan deposition. The primary glycosaminoglycan in hypothyroid myxedematous changes is hyaluronic acid, which binds water causing edema. This increases vascular permeability, extravasation of proteins and impaired lymphatic drainage. These contribute to increased intra-compartmental pressure and subsequent ACS. Published by Oxford University Press and JSCR Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved. © The Author 2016.

Current concepts in repair of extremity venous injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Timothy K; Clouse, W Darrin

2016-04-01

Extremity venous injury management remains controversial. The purpose of this communication is to offer perspective as well as experiential and technical insight into extremity venous injury repair. Available literature is reviewed and discussed. Historical context is provided. Indication, the decision process for repair, including technical conduct, is delineated. In particular, the authors' experiences in both civilian and wartime injury are used for perspective. Extremity venous injury repair was championed within data from the Vietnam Vascular Registry. However, patterns of extremity venous injury differ between combat and civilian settings. Since Vietnam, civilian descriptive series opine the benefits and potential complications associated with both venous injury repair and ligation. These surround extremity edema, chronic venous insufficiency, thromboembolism, and limb loss. Whereas no clear superiority in either approach has been identified to date, there appears to be no increased risk of pulmonary embolism or chronic venous changes with repair. Newer data from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and meta-analysis have reinforced this and also have suggested limb salvage benefit for extremity venous repair in combined arterial and venous injuries in modern settings. The patient's physiologic state and associated injury drive five triage categories suggesting vein injury management. Vein repair thrombosis occurs in a significant proportion, yet many recanalize and possibly have a positive impact on limb venous return. Further, early decompression favors reduced blood loss, acute edema, and inflammation, supporting collateral development. Large soft tissue injury minimizing collateral capacity increases the importance of repair. Constructs of repair are varied with modest differences in patency. Venous shunting is feasible, but specific roles remain nebulous. An aggressive posture toward extremity venous injury repair seems justified today because of the likely

Attribution of climate extreme events

Science.gov (United States)

Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; Shepherd, Theodore G.

2015-08-01

There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.

Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

2014-05-01

Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences

Changes in observed climate extremes in global urban areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishra, Vimal; Ganguly, Auroop R; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P

2015-01-01

Climate extremes have profound implications for urban infrastructure and human society, but studies of observed changes in climate extremes over the global urban areas are few, even though more than half of the global population now resides in urban areas. Here, using observed station data for 217 urban areas across the globe, we show that these urban areas have experienced significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the number of heat waves during the period 1973–2012, while the frequency of cold waves has declined. Almost half of the urban areas experienced significant increases in the number of extreme hot days, while almost 2/3 showed significant increases in the frequency of extreme hot nights. Extreme windy days declined substantially during the last four decades with statistically significant declines in about 60% in the urban areas. Significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the frequency of daily precipitation extremes and in annual maximum precipitation occurred at smaller fractions (17 and 10% respectively) of the total urban areas, with about half as many urban areas showing statistically significant downtrends as uptrends. Changes in temperature and wind extremes, estimated as the result of a 40 year linear trend, differed for urban and non-urban pairs, while changes in indices of extreme precipitation showed no clear differentiation for urban and selected non-urban stations. (letter)

Relations of lexical access to neural implementation and syntactic encoding

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Levelt, W.J.M.; Meyer, A.S.; Roelofs, A.P.A.

2004-01-01

Consciousness is a mongrel concept: there are a number of very different consciousnesses.” Phenomenal consciousness is experience; the phenomenally conscious aspect of a state is what it is like to be in that state. The mark of access- consciousness, by contrast, is availability for use in reasoning

A further problem of the hard problem of consciousness | Gbenga ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Justifying this assertion is identified as the further problem of the hard problem of consciousness. This shows that assertions about phenomenal properties of mental experiences are wholly epistemological. Hence, the problem of explaining phenomenal properties of a mental state is not a metaphysical problem, and what is ...

Climats, territoires, environnements

OpenAIRE

Cohen, Marianne; Desruelles, Stéphane; Giusti, Christian; Gramond, Delphine; Mercier, Denis

2018-01-01

Du 30 novembre au 12 décembre 2015 s’est tenue au Bourget la Conférence de Paris sur le climat, 21e conférence des parties (COP 21) à la Convention-cadre des Nations unies sur les changements climatiques (CCNUCC). Chaque année, les participants de cette conférence se réunissent pour décider des mesures destinées à limiter le réchauffement climatique : la COP 20 s’était réunie en décembre 2014 à Lima (Pérou), la COP 22 se déroulera à Marrakech (Maroc) à partir du 7 novembre 2016. L’accord de P...

Les sirènes de Copenhague !

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martine Tabeaud

2010-01-01

Full Text Available La Convention Cadre des Nations Unies sur le Changement Climatique (CCNUCC instance de politique internationale créée à Rio de Janeiro en 1992 a défini les moyens de lutte contre le changement climatique. Le choix s'est porté sur la réduction du réchauffement futur par la baisse des émissions de gaz à effet de serre, d'où le Protocole de Kyoto. Fin 2009, la réunion de Copenhague chargée de penser l'après Kyoto, l'après 2012 a donc polarisé à tort les plus grandes espérances quant à la refondation d'une gouvernance mondiale.

Extreme pressure differences at 0900 NZST and winds across New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Salinger, M. James; Griffiths, Georgina M.; Gosai, Ashmita

2005-07-01

Trends in extremes in station daily sea-level pressure differences at 0900 NZST are examined, and extreme daily wind gusts, across New Zealand, since the 1960s. Annual time series were examined (with indices of magnitude and frequency over threshold percentiles) from the daily indices selected. These follow from earlier indices of normalized monthly mean sea-level pressure differences between station pairs, except the daily indices are not normalized. The frequency statistics quantify the number of extreme zonal (westerly and easterly), or extreme meridional (southerly or northerly), pressure gradient events. The frequency and magnitude of extreme westerly episodes has increased slightly over New Zealand, with a significant increase in the westerly extremes to the south of New Zealand. In contrast, the magnitude and frequency of easterly extremes has decreased over New Zealand, but increased to the south, with some trends weakly significant. The frequency and magnitude of daily southerly extremes has decreased significantly in the region.Extreme daily wind gust events at key climate stations in New Zealand and at Hobart, Australia, are highly likely to be associated with an extreme daily pressure difference. The converse was less likely to hold: extreme wind gusts were not always observed on days with extreme daily pressure difference, probably due to the strong influence that topography has on localized station winds. Significant correlations exist between the frequency indices and both annual-average mean sea-level pressures around the Australasian region and annual-average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere. These correlations are generally stronger for indices of extreme westerly or extreme southerly airflows. Annual-average pressures in the Tasman Sea or Southern Ocean are highly correlated to zonal indices (frequency of extreme westerlies). SST anomalies in the NINO3 region or on either side of the South Island are

Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer Bright Source List

Science.gov (United States)

Malina, Roger F.; Marshall, Herman L.; Antia, Behram; Christian, Carol A.; Dobson, Carl A.; Finley, David S.; Fruscione, Antonella; Girouard, Forrest R.; Hawkins, Isabel; Jelinsky, Patrick

1994-01-01

Initial results from the analysis of the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) all-sky survey (58-740 A) and deep survey (67-364 A) are presented through the EUVE Bright Source List (BSL). The BSL contains 356 confirmed extreme ultraviolet (EUV) point sources with supporting information, including positions, observed EUV count rates, and the identification of possible optical counterparts. One-hundred twenty-six sources have been detected longward of 200 A.

Plant volatiles in extreme terrestrial and marine environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Rinnan, Riikka; Steinke, Michael; McGenity, Terry; Loreto, Francesco

2014-08-01

This review summarizes the current understanding on plant and algal volatile organic compound (VOC) production and emission in extreme environments, where temperature, water availability, salinity or other environmental factors pose stress on vegetation. Here, the extreme environments include terrestrial systems, such as arctic tundra, deserts, CO₂ springs and wetlands, and marine systems such as sea ice, tidal rock pools and hypersaline environments, with mangroves and salt marshes at the land-sea interface. The emission potentials at fixed temperature and light level or actual emission rates for phototrophs in extreme environments are frequently higher than for organisms from less stressful environments. For example, plants from the arctic tundra appear to have higher emission potentials for isoprenoids than temperate species, and hypersaline marine habitats contribute to global dimethyl sulphide (DMS) emissions in significant amounts. DMS emissions are more widespread than previously considered, for example, in salt marshes and some desert plants. The reason for widespread VOC, especially isoprenoid, emissions from different extreme environments deserves further attention, as these compounds may have important roles in stress resistance and adaptation to extremes. Climate warming is likely to significantly increase VOC emissions from extreme environments both by direct effects on VOC production and volatility, and indirectly by altering the composition of the vegetation. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Economic Growth and the Rise of Political Extremism

OpenAIRE

Markus Bruckner; Hans Peter Gruner

2011-01-01

In many western democracies, political parties with extreme platforms challenge more moderate incumbents. This paper analyses the impact of economic growth on the support for extreme political platforms. We provide a theoretical argument in favor of growth effects (as opposed to level effects) on the support for extreme political parties and we empirically investigate the relationship between growth and extremist votes. Lower growth rates benefit right-wing and nationalist parties, but do not...

Automation Rover for Extreme Environments

Science.gov (United States)

Sauder, Jonathan; Hilgemann, Evan; Johnson, Michael; Parness, Aaron; Hall, Jeffrey; Kawata, Jessie; Stack, Kathryn

2017-01-01

Almost 2,300 years ago the ancient Greeks built the Antikythera automaton. This purely mechanical computer accurately predicted past and future astronomical events long before electronics existed1. Automata have been credibly used for hundreds of years as computers, art pieces, and clocks. However, in the past several decades automata have become less popular as the capabilities of electronics increased, leaving them an unexplored solution for robotic spacecraft. The Automaton Rover for Extreme Environments (AREE) proposes an exciting paradigm shift from electronics to a fully mechanical system, enabling longitudinal exploration of the most extreme environments within the solar system.

Dual Axis Controller for Extreme Environments, Phase II

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Dual Axis Controller for Extreme Environments (DACEE) addresses a critical need of NASA's future exploration plans to investigate extreme environments within our...

Calculation of neutron fluence-to-dose conversion factors for extremities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stewart, R.D.; Harty, R.; McDonald, J.C.; Tanner, J.E.

1993-04-01

The Pacific Northwest Laboratory is developing a standard for the performance testing of personnel extremity dosimeters for the US Department of Energy. Part of this effort requires the calculation of neutron fluence-to-dose conversion factors for finger and wrist extremities. This study focuses on conversion factors for two types of extremity models: namely the polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) phantom (as specified in the draft standard for performance testing of extremity dosimeters) and more realistic extremity models composed of tissue-and-bone. Calculations for each type of model are based on both bare and D 2 O-moderated 252 Cf sources. The results are then tabulated and compared with whole-body conversion factors. More appropriate energy-averaged quality factors for the extremity models have also been computed from the neutron fluence in 50 equally spaced energy bins with energies from 2.53 x 10 -8 to 15 MeV. Tabulated results show that conversion factors for both types of extremity phantom are 15 to 30% lower than the corresponcung whole-body phantom conversion factors for 252 Cf neutron sources. This difference in extremity and whole-body conversion factors is attributable to the proportionally smaller amount of back-scattering that occurs in the extremity phantoms compared with whole-body phantoms

Acute lower extremity ischaemia

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Acute lower extremity ischaemia. Acute lower limb ischaemia is a surgical emergency. ... is ~1.5 cases per 10 000 persons per year. Acute ischaemia ... Table 2. Clinical features discriminating embolic from thrombotic ALEXI. Clinical features.

Vertical structure of extreme currents in the Faroe-Bank Channel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Carollo

2005-09-01

Full Text Available Extreme currents are studied with the aim of understanding their vertical and spatial structures in the Faroe-Bank Channel. Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler time series recorded in 3 deployments in this channel were investigated. To understand the main features of extreme events, the measurements were separated into their components through filtering and tidal analysis before applying the extreme value theory to the surge component. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV distribution and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD were used to study the variation of surge extremes from near-surface to deep waters. It was found that this component alone is not able to explain the extremes measured in total currents, particularly below 500 m. Here the mean residual flow enhanced by tidal rectification was found to be the component feature dominating extremes. Therefore, it must be taken into consideration when applying the extreme value theory, not to underestimate the return level for total currents. Return value speeds up to 250 cm s–1 for 50/250 years return period were found for deep waters, where the flow is constrained by the topography at bearings near 300/330° It is also found that the UK Meteorological Office FOAM model is unable to reproduce either the magnitude or the form for the extremes, perhaps due to its coarse vertical and horizontal resolution, and is thus not suitable to model extremes on a regional scale. Keywords. Oceanography: Physical (Currents; General circulation; General or miscellaneous

Online transfer learning with extreme learning machine

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Haibo; Yang, Yun-an

2017-05-01

In this paper, we propose a new transfer learning algorithm for online training. The proposed algorithm, which is called Online Transfer Extreme Learning Machine (OTELM), is based on Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine (OSELM) while it introduces Semi-Supervised Extreme Learning Machine (SSELM) to transfer knowledge from the source to the target domain. With the manifold regularization, SSELM picks out instances from the source domain that are less relevant to those in the target domain to initialize the online training, so as to improve the classification performance. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed OTELM can effectively use instances in the source domain to enhance the learning performance.

Upper-extremity phocomelia reexamined: a longitudinal dysplasia.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldfarb, Charles A; Manske, Paul R; Busa, Riccardo; Mills, Janith; Carter, Peter; Ezaki, Marybeth

2005-12-01

In contrast to longitudinal deficiencies, phocomelia is considered a transverse, intercalated segmental dysplasia. Most patients demonstrate severe, but not otherwise classifiable, upper-extremity deformities, which usually cannot be placed into one of three previously described phocomelia groups. Additionally, these phocomelic extremities do not demonstrate true segmental deficits; the limb is also abnormal proximal and distal to the segmental defect. The purpose of this investigation was to present evidence that upper-extremity abnormalities in patients previously diagnosed as having phocomelia in fact represent a proximal continuum of radial or ulnar longitudinal dysplasia. The charts and radiographs of forty-one patients (sixty extremities) diagnosed as having upper-extremity phocomelia were reviewed retrospectively. On the basis of the findings on the radiographs, the disorders were categorized into three groups: (1) proximal radial longitudinal dysplasia, which was characterized by an absent proximal part of the humerus, a nearly normal distal part of the humerus, a completely absent radius, and a radial-sided hand dysplasia; (2) proximal ulnar longitudinal dysplasia, characterized by a short one-bone upper extremity that bifurcated distally and by severe hand abnormalities compatible with ulnar dysplasia; and (3) severe combined dysplasia, with type A characterized by an absence of the forearm segment (i.e., the radius and ulna) and type B characterized by absence of the arm and forearm (i.e., the hand attached to the thorax). Twenty-nine limbs in sixteen patients could be classified as having proximal radial longitudinal dysplasia. Systemic medical conditions such as thrombocytopenia-absent radius syndrome were common in those patients, but additional musculoskeletal conditions were rare. Twenty limbs in seventeen patients could be classified as having proximal ulnar longitudinal dysplasia. Associated musculoskeletal abnormalities, such as proximal femoral

Overview of the biology of extreme events

Science.gov (United States)

Gutschick, V. P.; Bassirirad, H.

2008-12-01

Extreme events have, variously, meteorological origins as in heat waves or precipitation extremes, or biological origins as in pest and disease eruptions (or tectonic, earth-orbital, or impact-body origins). Despite growing recognition that these events are changing in frequency and intensity, a universal model of ecological responses to these events is slow to emerge. Extreme events, negative and positive, contrast with normal events in terms of their effects on the physiology, ecology, and evolution of organisms, hence also on water, carbon, and nutrient cycles. They structure biogeographic ranges and biomes, almost surely more than mean values often used to define biogeography. They are challenging to study for obvious reasons of field-readiness but also because they are defined by sequences of driving variables such as temperature, not point events. As sequences, their statistics (return times, for example) are challenging to develop, as also from the involvement of multiple environmental variables. These statistics are not captured well by climate models. They are expected to change with climate and land-use change but our predictive capacity is currently limited. A number of tools for description and analysis of extreme events are available, if not widely applied to date. Extremes for organisms are defined by their fitness effects on those organisms, and are specific to genotypes, making them major agents of natural selection. There is evidence that effects of extreme events may be concentrated in an extended recovery phase. We review selected events covering ranges of time and magnitude, from Snowball Earth to leaf functional loss in weather events. A number of events, such as the 2003 European heat wave, evidence effects on water and carbon cycles over large regions. Rising CO2 is the recent extreme of note, for its climatic effects and consequences for growing seasons, transpiration, etc., but also directly in its action as a substrate of photosynthesis

Injuries in an Extreme Conditioning Program

OpenAIRE

Aune, Kyle T.; Powers, Joseph M.

2016-01-01

Background: Extreme conditioning programs (ECPs) are fitness training regimens relying on aerobic, plyometric, and resistance training exercises, often with high levels of intensity for a short duration of time. These programs have grown rapidly in popularity in recent years, but science describing the safety profile of these programs is lacking. Hypothesis: The rate of injury in the extreme conditioning program is greater than the injury rate of weightlifting and the majority of injuries occ...

Covered Interest-Rate Parity Revisited: an Extreme Value Copula Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mikel Ugando-Peñate

2015-11-01

Full Text Available This article studied the covered interest-rate parity (CIP condition under extreme market movements using extreme value theory and extreme value copulas to characterize dependence between extreme interest rate differentials and forward premium. The empirical analysis for the CIP between interest rates for the US dollar and the British pound indicates that there is strong co-movement between interest rate differentials and forward premium at different maturities and in both upper and lower tails. This conclusion would support the existence of the CIP condition under extreme market movements.

Measures of serial extremal dependence and their estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davis, Richard A.; Mikosch, Thomas Valentin; Zhao, Yuwei

2013-01-01

extremal dependence is typically characterized by clusters of exceedances of high thresholds in the series. We start by discussing the notion of extremal index of a univariate sequence, i.e. the reciprocal of the expected cluster size, which has attracted major attention in the extremal value literature...... has attracted attention for modeling and statistical purposes. We apply the extremogram to max-stable processes. Finally, we discuss estimation of the extremogram both in the time and frequency domains....

Methodology for featuring and assessing extreme climatic events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malleron, N.; Bernardara, P.; Benoit, M.; Parey, S.; Perret, C.

2013-01-01

The setting up of a nuclear power plant on a particular site requires the assessment of risks linked to extreme natural events like flooding or earthquakes. As a consequence of the Fukushima accident EDF proposes to take into account even rarer events in order to improve the robustness of the facility all over its operating life. This article presents the methodology used by EDF to analyse a set of data in a statistical way in order to extract extreme values. This analysis is based on the theory of extreme values and is applied to the extreme values of the flow rate in the case of a river overflowing. This methodology is made of 6 steps: 1) selection of the event, of its featuring parameter and of its probability, for instance the question is what is the flow rate of a flooding that has a probability of 10 -3 to happen, 2) to collect data over a long period of time (or to recover data from past periods), 3) to extract extreme values from the data, 4) to find an adequate statistical law that fits the spreading of the extreme values, 5) the selected statistical law must be validated through visual or statistical tests, and 6) the computation of the flow rate of the event itself. (A.C.)

Area spectra of near extremal black holes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Deyou; Yang, Haitang; Zu, Xiaotao

2010-01-01

Motivated by Maggiore's new interpretation of quasinormal modes, we investigate area spectra of a near extremal Schwarzschild-de Sitter black hole and a higher-dimensional near extremal Reissner-Nordstrom-de Sitter black hole. The result shows that the area spectra are equally spaced and irrelevant to the parameters of the black holes. (orig.)

Predictability of Extreme Precipitations Over the Conterminous us, 1949-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, M.; Felzer, B. S.

2015-12-01

Extreme precipitation plays an important role in regulating ecosystem services. Precipitation extremes vary in magnitude and duration both spatially and temporally, making it one of the most challenging climate variables to comprehend and predict. Using information theory, we provide an attempt to improve understanding of the predictability of extreme precipitation in the conterminous U.S. over the period of 1949-2010. We define predictability as the recurrent likelihood of patterns described by the measures of constancy and contingency, with the former describing the inter-annual variability and the latter describing the seasonality. This study shows that there are clear west-east contrasts of predictability over the U.S. landscape, with a generally decreasing gradient from the Northeast to the Southwest for intensity-based extremes and a generally increasing gradient from the West to the East for duration-based extremes. We further identify spatially heterogeneous patterns of temporal changes in predictability over the investigated timeframe. Finally, it is evident that constancy plays a heavier role in regulating predictability increases for both intensity and duration-based extremes and for predictability decreases for duration-based extremes, while contingency contributes equally with constancy to determining the decreases in predictability for intensity-based extremes.

Extreme weather-related health needs of people who are homeless.

Science.gov (United States)

Cusack, Lynette; van Loon, Antonia; Kralik, Debbie; Arbon, Paul; Gilbert, Sandy

2013-01-01

To identify the extreme weather-related health needs of homeless people and the response by homeless service providers in Adelaide, South Australia, a five-phased qualitative interpretive study was undertaken. (1) Literature review, followed by semi-structured interviews with 25 homeless people to ascertain health needs during extreme weather events. (2) Identification of homeless services. (3) Semi-structured interviews with 16 homeless service providers regarding their response to the health needs of homeless people at times of extreme weather. (4) Gap analysis. (5) Suggestions for policy and planning. People experiencing homelessness describe adverse health impacts more from extreme cold, than extreme hot weather. They considered their health suffered more, because of wet bedding, clothes and shoes. They felt more depressed and less able to keep themselves well during cold, wet winters. However, homeless service providers were more focussed on planning for extra service responses during times of extreme heat rather than extreme cold. Even though a city may be considered to have a temperate climate with a history of very hot summers, primary homeless populations have health needs during winter months. The experiences and needs of homeless people should be considered in extreme weather policy and when planning responses.

Alternative measures of risk of extreme events in decision trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frohwein, H.I.; Lambert, J.H.; Haimes, Y.Y.

1999-01-01

A need for a methodology to control the extreme events, defined as low-probability, high-consequence incidents, in sequential decisions is identified. A variety of alternative and complementary measures of the risk of extreme events are examined for their usability as objective functions in sequential decisions, represented as single- or multiple-objective decision trees. Earlier work had addressed difficulties, related to non-separability, with the minimization of some measures of the risk of extreme events in sequential decisions. In an extension of these results, it is shown how some non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events can be interpreted in terms of separable constituents of risk, thereby enabling a wider class of measures of the risk of extreme events to be handled in a straightforward manner in a decision tree. Also for extreme events, results are given to enable minimax- and Hurwicz-criterion analyses in decision trees. An example demonstrates the incorporation of different measures of the risk of extreme events in a multi-objective decision tree. Conceptual formulations for optimizing non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events are identified as an important area for future investigation

Identification of extreme motor phenotypes in Huntington's disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Braisch, Ulrike; Hay, Birgit; Muche, Rainer; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Landwehrmeyer, G Bernhard; Long, Jeffrey D; Orth, Michael

2017-04-01

The manifestation of motor signs in Huntington's disease (HD) has a well-known inverse relationship with HTT CAG repeat length, but the prediction is far from perfect. The probability of finding disease modifiers is enhanced in individuals with extreme HD phenotypes. We aimed to identify extreme HD motor phenotypes conditional on CAG and age, such as patients with very early or very late onset of motor manifestation. Retrospective data were available from 1,218 healthy controls and 9,743 HD participants with CAG repeats ≥40, and a total of about 30,000 visits. Boundaries (2.5% and 97.5% quantiles) for extreme motor phenotypes (UHDRS total motor score (TMS) and motor age-at-onset) were estimated using quantile regression for longitudinal data. More than 15% of HD participants had an extreme TMS phenotype for at least one visit. In contrast, only about 4% of participants were consistent TMS extremes at two or more visits. Data from healthy controls revealed an upper cut-off of 13 for the TMS representing the extreme of motor ratings for a normal aging population. In HD, boundaries of motor age-at-onset based on diagnostic confidence or derived from the TMS data cut-off in controls were similar. In summary, a UHDRS TMS of more than 13 in an individual carrying the HD mutation indicates a high likelihood of motor manifestations of HD irrespective of CAG repeat length or age. The identification of motor phenotype extremes can be useful in the search for disease modifiers, for example, genetic or environmental such as medication. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[Ultrasound examination for lower extremity deep vein thrombosis].

Science.gov (United States)

Toyota, Kosaku

2014-09-01

Surgery is known to be a major risk factor of vein thrombosis. Progression from lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) to pulmonary embolism can lead to catastrophic outcome, although the incidence ratio is low. The ability to rule in or rule out DVT is becoming essential for anesthesiologists. Non-invasive technique of ultrasonography is a sensitive and specific tool for the assessment of lower extremity DVT. This article introduces the basics and practical methods of ultrasound examination for lower extremity DVT.

Vertical structure of extreme currents in the Faroe-Bank Channel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Carollo

2005-09-01

Full Text Available Extreme currents are studied with the aim of understanding their vertical and spatial structures in the Faroe-Bank Channel. Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler time series recorded in 3 deployments in this channel were investigated. To understand the main features of extreme events, the measurements were separated into their components through filtering and tidal analysis before applying the extreme value theory to the surge component. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV distribution and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD were used to study the variation of surge extremes from near-surface to deep waters. It was found that this component alone is not able to explain the extremes measured in total currents, particularly below 500 m. Here the mean residual flow enhanced by tidal rectification was found to be the component feature dominating extremes. Therefore, it must be taken into consideration when applying the extreme value theory, not to underestimate the return level for total currents. Return value speeds up to 250 cm s^–1 for 50/250 years return period were found for deep waters, where the flow is constrained by the topography at bearings near 300/330° It is also found that the UK Meteorological Office FOAM model is unable to reproduce either the magnitude or the form for the extremes, perhaps due to its coarse vertical and horizontal resolution, and is thus not suitable to model extremes on a regional scale.

Keywords. Oceanography: Physical (Currents; General circulation; General or miscellaneous

Risk Factors for Lower-Extremity Injuries Among Contemporary Dance Students.

Science.gov (United States)

van Seters, Christine; van Rijn, Rogier M; van Middelkoop, Marienke; Stubbe, Janine H

2017-10-10

To determine whether student characteristics, lower-extremity kinematics, and strength are risk factors for sustaining lower-extremity injuries in preprofessional contemporary dancers. Prospective cohort study. Codarts University of the Arts. Forty-five first-year students of Bachelor Dance and Bachelor Dance Teacher. At the beginning of the academic year, the injury history (only lower-extremity) and student characteristics (age, sex, educational program) were assessed using a questionnaire. Besides, lower-extremity kinematics [single-leg squat (SLS)], strength (countermovement jump) and height and weight (body mass index) were measured during a physical performance test. Substantial lower-extremity injuries during the academic year were defined as any problems leading to moderate or severe reductions in training volume or in performance, or complete inability to participate in dance at least once during follow-up as measured with the Oslo Sports Trauma Research Center (OSTRC) Questionnaire on Health Problems. Injuries were recorded on a monthly basis using a questionnaire. Analyses on leg-level were performed using generalized estimating equations to test the associations between substantial lower-extremity injuries and potential risk factors. The 1-year incidence of lower-extremity injuries was 82.2%. Of these, 51.4% was a substantial lower-extremity injury. Multivariate analyses identified that ankle dorsiflexion during the SLS (OR 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.52) was a risk factor for a substantial lower-extremity injury. The findings indicate that contemporary dance students are at high risk for lower-extremity injuries. Therefore, the identified risk factor (ankle dorsiflexion) should be considered for prevention purposes.

Analysis of extreme events

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Khuluse, S

2009-04-01

Full Text Available ) determination of the distribution of the damage and (iii) preparation of products that enable prediction of future risk events. The methodology provided by extreme value theory can also be a powerful tool in risk analysis...

Preconditioned iterations to calculate extreme eigenvalues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brand, C.W.; Petrova, S. [Institut fuer Angewandte Mathematik, Leoben (Austria)

1994-12-31

Common iterative algorithms to calculate a few extreme eigenvalues of a large, sparse matrix are Lanczos methods or power iterations. They converge at a rate proportional to the separation of the extreme eigenvalues from the rest of the spectrum. Appropriate preconditioning improves the separation of the eigenvalues. Davidson`s method and its generalizations exploit this fact. The authors examine a preconditioned iteration that resembles a truncated version of Davidson`s method with a different preconditioning strategy.

The Engineering for Climate Extremes Partnership

Science.gov (United States)

Holland, G. J.; Tye, M. R.

2014-12-01

Hurricane Sandy and the recent floods in Thailand have demonstrated not only how sensitive the urban environment is to the impact of severe weather, but also the associated global reach of the ramifications. These, together with other growing extreme weather impacts and the increasing interdependence of global commercial activities point towards a growing vulnerability to weather and climate extremes. The Engineering for Climate Extremes Partnership brings academia, industry and government together with the goals encouraging joint activities aimed at developing new, robust, and well-communicated responses to this increasing vulnerability. Integral to the approach is the concept of 'graceful failure' in which flexible designs are adopted that protect against failure by combining engineering or network strengths with a plan for efficient and rapid recovery if and when they fail. Such an approach enables optimal planning for both known future scenarios and their assessed uncertainty.

Mediatized Extreme Right Activism and Discourse

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Peters, Rikke Alberg

2015-01-01

This paper presents a case study of the German neo-fascist network The Immortals (Die Unsterblichen) who in 2011 performed a flash-mob disseminated on YouTube for the so- called ‘Become Immortal’ campaign. The street protest was designed for and adapted to the specific characteristics of online...... activism. It is a good example of how new contentious action repertoires in which online and street activism intertwine have also spread to extreme right groups. Despite its neo-fascist and extreme right content the ‘Become Immortal’ campaign serves as an illustrative case for the study of mediated...... and mediatized activism. In order to analyse of the protest form, the visual aesthetics and the discourse of ‘The Immortals’, the paper mobilises two concepts from media and communication studies: mediation and mediatization. It will be argued that that the current transformation of the extreme right: that is...

Extremal vectors and rectifiability | Enflo | Quaestiones Mathematicae

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Extremal vectors and rectifiability. ... The concept of extremal vectors of a linear operator with a dense range but not onto on a Hilbert space was introduced by P. Enflo in 1996 as a new approach to study invariant subspaces ... We show that in general curves that map numbers to backward minimal vectors are not rectifiable.

Extreme project. Progress report 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eyrolle, F.; Masson, O.; Charmasson, S.

2007-01-01

The E.X.T.R.E.M.E. project introduced in 2005 to the S.E.S.U.R.E. / L.E.R.C.M. has for objectives to acquire data on the consequences of the extreme climatic meteorological episodes on the distribution of the artificial radioisotopes within the various compartments of the geosphere. This report presents the synthesis of the actions developed in 2006 in positioning and in co financing of the project by means of regional or national research programs (C.A.R.M.A., E.X.T.R.E.M.A., E.C.C.O.R.E.V.I.), of data acquisition, valuation and scientific collaboration. (N.C.)

Anders Breivik: Extreme Beliefs Mistaken for Psychosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Tahir; Resnick, Phillip J; Harry, Bruce

2016-03-01

The case of Anders Breivik, who committed mass murder in Norway in 2011, stirred controversy among forensic mental health experts. His bizarrely composed compendium and references to himself as the "Knights Templar" raised concerns that he had a psychotic mental illness. Beliefs such as Mr. Breivik's that precede odd, unusual, or extremely violent behavior present a unique challenge to the forensic evaluator, who sometimes struggles to understand those beliefs. Psychotic disorder frequently is invoked to characterize odd, unusual, or extreme beliefs, with a classification that has evolved over time. However, the important concept of overvalued idea, largely ignored in American psychiatry, may better characterize these beliefs in some cases. We discuss the definitions of delusion and overvalued ideas in the context of Anders Breivik's rigidly held extreme beliefs. We also review the British definition of overvalued idea and discuss McHugh's construct, to introduce the term "extreme overvalued belief" as an aid in sharpening the forensic evaluator's conceptualization of these and similar beliefs. © 2016 American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law.

Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

2015-01-01

Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings.

Distant Galaxy Clusters Hosting Extreme Central Galaxies

Science.gov (United States)

McDonald, Michael

2014-09-01

The recently-discovered Phoenix cluster harbors the most star-forming central cluster galaxy of any cluster in the known Universe, by nearly a factor of 10. This extreme system appears to be fulfilling early cooling flow predictions, although the lack of similar systems makes any interpretation difficult. In an attempt to find other "Phoenix-like" clusters, we have cross-correlated archival all-sky surveys (in which Phoenix was detected) and isolated 4 similarly-extreme systems which are also coincident in position and redshift with an overdensity of red galaxies. We propose here to obtain Chandra observations of these extreme, Phoenix-like systems, in order to confirm them as relaxed, rapidly-cooling galaxy clusters.

Roentgenological findings in muscular alterations of extremities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palvoelgyi, R.

1978-01-01

A survey of roentgenological findings in muscular alterations of extremities based on the author's experiences and on the literature is presented. Following a description of the normal roentgen anatomy, the alterations in different diseases of interstitial lipomatosis are demonstrated. By roentgenological examinations differt muscular lesions of the extremities can be differentiated and the clinical follow-up verified. (orig.) [de

Models and Inference for Multivariate Spatial Extremes

KAUST Repository

Vettori, Sabrina

2017-12-07

The development of flexible and interpretable statistical methods is necessary in order to provide appropriate risk assessment measures for extreme events and natural disasters. In this thesis, we address this challenge by contributing to the developing research field of Extreme-Value Theory. We initially study the performance of existing parametric and non-parametric estimators of extremal dependence for multivariate maxima. As the dimensionality increases, non-parametric estimators are more flexible than parametric methods but present some loss in efficiency that we quantify under various scenarios. We introduce a statistical tool which imposes the required shape constraints on non-parametric estimators in high dimensions, significantly improving their performance. Furthermore, by embedding the tree-based max-stable nested logistic distribution in the Bayesian framework, we develop a statistical algorithm that identifies the most likely tree structures representing the data\\'s extremal dependence using the reversible jump Monte Carlo Markov Chain method. A mixture of these trees is then used for uncertainty assessment in prediction through Bayesian model averaging. The computational complexity of full likelihood inference is significantly decreased by deriving a recursive formula for the nested logistic model likelihood. The algorithm performance is verified through simulation experiments which also compare different likelihood procedures. Finally, we extend the nested logistic representation to the spatial framework in order to jointly model multivariate variables collected across a spatial region. This situation emerges often in environmental applications but is not often considered in the current literature. Simulation experiments show that the new class of multivariate max-stable processes is able to detect both the cross and inner spatial dependence of a number of extreme variables at a relatively low computational cost, thanks to its Bayesian hierarchical

Modeling Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Extremes Across Multiple Durations

Science.gov (United States)

Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2018-03-01

Determining the probability of a flood event in a catchment given that another flood has occurred in a nearby catchment is useful in the design of infrastructure such as road networks that have multiple river crossings. These conditional flood probabilities can be estimated by calculating conditional probabilities of extreme rainfall and then transforming rainfall to runoff through a hydrologic model. Each catchment's hydrological response times are unlikely to be the same, so in order to estimate these conditional probabilities one must consider the dependence of extreme rainfall both across space and across critical storm durations. To represent these types of dependence, this study proposes a new approach for combining extreme rainfall across different durations within a spatial extreme value model using max-stable process theory. This is achieved in a stepwise manner. The first step defines a set of common parameters for the marginal distributions across multiple durations. The parameters are then spatially interpolated to develop a spatial field. Storm-level dependence is represented through the max-stable process for rainfall extremes across different durations. The dependence model shows a reasonable fit between the observed pairwise extremal coefficients and the theoretical pairwise extremal coefficient function across all durations. The study demonstrates how the approach can be applied to develop conditional maps of the return period and return level across different durations.

ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Lavers, David A.; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David S.; Zsoter, Ervin

2016-11-01

In winter, heavy precipitation and floods along the west coasts of midlatitude continents are largely caused by intense water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) within the atmospheric river of extratropical cyclones. This study builds on previous findings that showed that forecasts of IVT have higher predictability than precipitation, by applying and evaluating the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT in ensemble forecasts during three winters across Europe. We show that the IVT EFI is more able (than the precipitation EFI) to capture extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase; conversely, the precipitation EFI is better during the negative NAO phase and at shorter leads. An IVT EFI example for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlights its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes, which may prove useful to the user and forecasting communities.

Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes Under Warming Climate in Urban India

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, H.; Mishra, V.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events in urban India halted transportation, damaged infrastructure, and affected human lives. Rainfall extremes are projected to increase under the future climate. We evaluated the relationship (scaling) between rainfall extremes at different temporal resolutions (daily, 3-hourly, and 30 minutes), daily dewpoint temperature (DPT) and daily air temperature at 850 hPa (T850) for 23 urban areas in India. Daily rainfall extremes obtained from Global Surface Summary of Day Data (GSOD) showed positive regression slopes for most of the cities with median of 14%/K for the period of 1979-2013 for DPT and T850, which is higher than Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) rate ( 7%). Moreover, sub-daily rainfall extremes are more sensitive to both DPT and T850. For instance, 3-hourly rainfall extremes obtained from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B42 V7) showed regression slopes more than 16%/K aginst DPT and T850 for the period of 1998-2015. Half-hourly rainfall extremes from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERGE) of Global precipitation mission (GPM) also showed higher sensitivity against changes in DPT and T850. The super scaling of rainfall extremes against changes in DPT and T850 can be attributed to convective nature of precipitation in India. Our results show that urban India may witness non-stationary rainfall extremes, which, in turn will affect stromwater designs and frequency and magniture of urban flooding.

The waviness of the extratropical jet and daily weather extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Röthlisberger, Matthias; Martius, Olivia; Pfahl, Stephan

2016-04-01

In recent years the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes have experienced a large number of weather extremes with substantial socio-economic impact, such as the European and Russian heat waves in 2003 and 2010, severe winter floods in the United Kingdom in 2013/2014 and devastating winter storms such as Lothar (1999) and Xynthia (2010) in Central Europe. These have triggered an engaged debate within the scientific community on the role of human induced climate change in the occurrence of such extremes. A key element of this debate is the hypothesis that the waviness of the extratropical jet is linked to the occurrence of weather extremes, with a wavier jet stream favouring more extremes. Previous work on this topic is expanded in this study by analyzing the linkage between a regional measure of jet waviness and daily temperature, precipitation and wind gust extremes. We show that indeed such a linkage exists in many regions of the world, however this waviness-extremes linkage varies spatially in strength and sign. Locally, it is strong only where the relevant weather systems, in which the extremes occur, are affected by the jet waviness. Its sign depends on how the frequency of occurrence of the relevant weather systems is correlated with the occurrence of high and low jet waviness. These results go beyond previous studies by noting that also a decrease in waviness could be associated with an enhanced number of some weather extremes, especially wind gust and precipitation extremes over western Europe.

Leadership as a social phenomen

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. V. Grizhenko

2014-04-01

Yet, despite the fact that the path to leadership is open to all, a worthy leader can be not everyone. Aspiring to power, many people do not want to take important decisions, do not have sufficient elevation of the spirit, do not believe in themselves and others. Therefore, as often happens, in a high position, many never can indestructible move to their goals, to implement certain tasks or to gain the support of a wide range of people.

Metodologické srovnání práce s fenomenálními poli ve fenomenologické topologii a ve fenomenologické psychologii osobnosti

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Nitsche, Martin

2016-01-01

Roč. 60, Suppl. 1 (2016), s. 22-30 ISSN 0009-062X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-22586S Institutional support: RVO:67985955 Keywords : phenomenal field * phenomenology * phenomenological topology * phenomenal field theory * Husserl * Merleau-Ponty * Snygg – Combs Subject RIV: AA - Philosophy ; Religion Impact factor: 0.242, year: 2016

Gravo-Aeroelastic Scaling for Extreme-Scale Wind Turbines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fingersh, Lee J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Loth, Eric [University of Virginia; Kaminski, Meghan [University of Virginia; Qin, Chao [University of Virginia; Griffith, D. Todd [Sandia National Laboratories

2017-06-09

A scaling methodology is described in the present paper for extreme-scale wind turbines (rated at 10 MW or more) that allow their sub-scale turbines to capture their key blade dynamics and aeroelastic deflections. For extreme-scale turbines, such deflections and dynamics can be substantial and are primarily driven by centrifugal, thrust and gravity forces as well as the net torque. Each of these are in turn a function of various wind conditions, including turbulence levels that cause shear, veer, and gust loads. The 13.2 MW rated SNL100-03 rotor design, having a blade length of 100-meters, is herein scaled to the CART3 wind turbine at NREL using 25% geometric scaling and blade mass and wind speed scaled by gravo-aeroelastic constraints. In order to mimic the ultralight structure on the advanced concept extreme-scale design the scaling results indicate that the gravo-aeroelastically scaled blades for the CART3 are be three times lighter and 25% longer than the current CART3 blades. A benefit of this scaling approach is that the scaled wind speeds needed for testing are reduced (in this case by a factor of two), allowing testing under extreme gust conditions to be much more easily achieved. Most importantly, this scaling approach can investigate extreme-scale concepts including dynamic behaviors and aeroelastic deflections (including flutter) at an extremely small fraction of the full-scale cost.

Analyzing phenological extreme events over the past five decades in Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Schleip, Christoph; Menzel, Annette; Estrella, Nicole; Graeser, Philipp

2010-05-01

As climate change may alter the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures, we analysed whether warming of the last 5 decades has already changed the statistics of phenological extreme events. In this context, two extreme value statistical concepts are discussed and applied to existing phenological datasets of German Weather Service (DWD) in order to derive probabilities of occurrence for extreme early or late phenological events. We analyse four phenological groups; "begin of flowering, "leaf foliation", "fruit ripening" and "leaf colouring" as well as DWD indicator phases of the "phenological year". Additionally we put an emphasis on a between-species analysis; a comparison of differences in extreme onsets between three common northern conifers. Furthermore we conducted a within-species analysis with different phases of horse chestnut throughout a year. The first statistical approach fits data to a Gaussian model using traditional statistical techniques, and then analyses the extreme quantile. The key point of this approach is the adoption of an appropriate probability density function (PDF) to the observed data and the assessment of the PDF parameters change in time. The full analytical description in terms of the estimated PDF for defined time steps of the observation period allows probability assessments of extreme values for e.g. annual or decadal time steps. Related with this approach is the possibility of counting out the onsets which fall in our defined extreme percentiles. The estimation of the probability of extreme events on the basis of the whole data set is in contrast to analyses with the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV). The second approach deals with the extreme PDFs itself and fits the GEV distribution to annual minima of phenological series to provide useful estimates about return levels. For flowering and leaf unfolding phases exceptionally early extremes are seen since the mid 1980s and especially for the single years 1961

Upper Extremity Deep Vein Thromboses: The Bowler and the Barista

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seth Stake

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Effort thrombosis of the upper extremity refers to a deep venous thrombosis of the upper extremity resulting from repetitive activity of the upper limb. Most cases of effort thrombosis occur in young elite athletes with strenuous upper extremity activity. This article reports two cases who both developed upper extremity deep vein thromboses, the first being a 67-year-old bowler and the second a 25-year-old barista, and illustrates that effort thrombosis should be included in the differential diagnosis in any patient with symptoms concerning DVT associated with repetitive activity. A literature review explores the recommended therapies for upper extremity deep vein thromboses.

Upper Extremity Deep Vein Thromboses: The Bowler and the Barista.

Science.gov (United States)

Stake, Seth; du Breuil, Anne L; Close, Jeremy

2016-01-01

Effort thrombosis of the upper extremity refers to a deep venous thrombosis of the upper extremity resulting from repetitive activity of the upper limb. Most cases of effort thrombosis occur in young elite athletes with strenuous upper extremity activity. This article reports two cases who both developed upper extremity deep vein thromboses, the first being a 67-year-old bowler and the second a 25-year-old barista, and illustrates that effort thrombosis should be included in the differential diagnosis in any patient with symptoms concerning DVT associated with repetitive activity. A literature review explores the recommended therapies for upper extremity deep vein thromboses.

Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingcai Li

Full Text Available Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382. The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings.

Study of the thermal and hydraulic phenomena occurring during power excursion on a heated test section; Etude des phenomenes thermiques et hydrauliques accompagnant une excursion rapide de puissance sur un canal chauffant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nyer, M [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Grenoble (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

1969-07-01

The thermal and hydrodynamic phenomena occurring during a power excursion were studied in an out-of-pile loop with a water cooled channel at low pressure (1 to 4 atm. abs. ). Circular and rectangular test sections with electrically heated walls of two different thermal diffusivity materials(aluminium and stainless steel) were used. The rectangular test sections were 600 mm long, 35 mm wide and had a 2, 9 mm gap; they simulate two half plates of the M.T.R. fuel element. Natural or forced convection are possible in the test section; the water height above it can be varied from 2.8 to 8 meters and the maximum allowed pressure at its outlet is 4 atm. abs.The heating source is a series of lead batteries which is able to generate, for short periods of time, 85 volts and 25000 amperes; linear, square or exponential power rise versus time can be realized. A 14 channels tape recorder (0-10 000 Hz bandwidth; is used for the measurements of temperature (8/100 mm diameter thermocouple), pressure ('Statham' pressure transducers) and void fraction (X rays). More than 500 tests have been carried out. The influence of the initial water temperature, flow rate, pressure, water height on the water ejections, pressure variations and void fraction in the test section were studied. Tests with energies up to 3000 W/cm in 50 milliseconds were attempted. The energy above which the instabilities appear was determined. An interpretation of the observed phenomena and a simplified theoretical model are presented. [French] Les phenomenes thermiques et hydrodynamiques qui apparaissent au cours d'une excursion de puissance ont ete etudies sur un canal refroidi par de l'eau a basse pression situe sur une installation hors pile. On a utilise des sections d'essais de geometrie cylindrique ou parallipedique dont les parois chauffees par effet Joule sont constituees de materiaux de diffusivite calorifique differente (aluminium et acier inoxydable). La section d'essais parallipedique a 600 mm de long

Computational discovery of extremal microstructure families

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Desai; Skouras, Mélina; Zhu, Bo; Matusik, Wojciech

2018-01-01

Modern fabrication techniques, such as additive manufacturing, can be used to create materials with complex custom internal structures. These engineered materials exhibit a much broader range of bulk properties than their base materials and are typically referred to as metamaterials or microstructures. Although metamaterials with extraordinary properties have many applications, designing them is very difficult and is generally done by hand. We propose a computational approach to discover families of microstructures with extremal macroscale properties automatically. Using efficient simulation and sampling techniques, we compute the space of mechanical properties covered by physically realizable microstructures. Our system then clusters microstructures with common topologies into families. Parameterized templates are eventually extracted from families to generate new microstructure designs. We demonstrate these capabilities on the computational design of mechanical metamaterials and present five auxetic microstructure families with extremal elastic material properties. Our study opens the way for the completely automated discovery of extremal microstructures across multiple domains of physics, including applications reliant on thermal, electrical, and magnetic properties. PMID:29376124

Des filets à nuages sur la crête d'El Tofo | CRDI - Centre de ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

adaptation aux changements climatiques que le CRDI subventionne. Entretien avec…propose des entrevues vidéos avec des chercheurs participant à des projets portant sur l'adaptation aux changements climati.

The problem of defining contemporary right-wing extremism in political theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Đorić Marija

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The subject matter of research in this paper is theoretical controversy related to the definition of right-wing extremism. Given the fact that extremism is a variable, amorphous and insufficiently researched phenomenon, largely conditioned by time, space, political and cultural differences, there is a great confusion in the field of political science when defining right-wing extremism. The problem of researching right-wing extremism is additionally complicated by various terms that are being used in the contemporary literature as its synonyms, such as right-wing radicalism, neo-Fascism, ultra-radicalism, etc. In order to provide the most valid theoretical determination of right-wing extremism, the author provides a detailed analysis of all the components constituting this phenomenon and examines their causality. In the political praxis, the term extremism is extensively abused, which additionally complicates its determination. Videlicet, politicians often use term 'extremist' in order to discredit their political opponents. While during the French revolution aristocracy saw the bourgeoisie as extremists, the members of the working class later stated that the bourgeoisie were extremists. The problem lies in the fact that, in politics, extremists are not only the ones who use violence as modus operandi; indeed, it is also used by political opponents who do not belong to the extreme political option. Another aggravating factor in defining right-wing extremism is that many administrative and academic definitions do not make a clear distinction between extremism and related phenomena, such as terrorism, radicalism and populism. Extremism is most often equaled with terrorism, which gives rise to another problem in defining this phenomenon. The relation between extremism and terrorism is the relation of general and specific. Namely, every act of terrorism is concurrently considered to be an act of extremism, but not vice versa, given the fact that

Structure of personality and motivation of extreme sports athletes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jana Mahnič

2005-09-01

Full Text Available The purpose of research was to define the eventual differences between personal and motivational structure among extreme sports athletes and non-athletes. Beside personal and motivational structure of both mentioned groups, we also examined state and trait anxiety as significant factors of success. We used a medium lengthy version of FPI inventory, Costell's questionnaire of achievement motivation and Spielberg's questionnaire STAI – X1 and STAI – X2. The pattern included 66 extreme sports athletes. We concluded that extreme sports athletes are significantly less suppressed and sincere, whereas they are more extrovert and masculine in comparison with the group of non-athletes. A trend that individuals, who reach for extreme sports, are more sociable, and less neurotic is pointed out, but it is not of significant importance. We found out that there is also a tendency that extreme sports athletes express more positive achievement motivation than non-athletes, who on the other hand express significantly higher negative achievement motivation. The analysis of anxiety differences on the other hand showed that extreme sports athletes have significantly lower state of anxiety and the anxiety itself as atrait is far less visible, but the difference did not appear as significant. The results however did not confirme previous studies' findings. Nevertheless they serve as a contribution to some earlier findings and suggest that extreme sports athletes are a special group, which differs from non-athlete population in both personal and motivational structure and relatively well suits to the profile of a top athlete. At the same time, the present research offers a possibility of shaping an extreme sports athlete's profile.

Dosimetric characteristics of a TLD dosemeter with extremities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Molina P, D.; Diaz B, E.; Lien V, R.

1999-01-01

It was designed a TLD dosemeter for the monitoring of the extremities. This one consists in a metallic ring with a circular orifice where is arranged a T L detector of LiF: Mg,Ti (Model JR1152C) 5 x 5 x 0.8 mm 3 covered by a polyethylene fine layer. In this work were studied the dosimetric properties of the dosemeter for its application in the dosimetry of extremities for photonic radiation. the results obtained allow conclude that the designed dosemeter can be used for the extremities monitoring. (Author)

Compound summer temperature and precipitation extremes over central Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Sedlmeier, Katrin; Feldmann, H.; Schädler, G.

2018-02-01

Reliable knowledge of the near-future climate change signal of extremes is important for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Especially compound extremes, like heat and drought occurring simultaneously, may have a greater impact on society than their univariate counterparts and have recently become an active field of study. In this paper, we use a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution (7 km) regional climate simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe to analyze the climate change signal and its uncertainty for compound heat and drought extremes in summer by two different measures: one describing absolute (i.e., number of exceedances of absolute thresholds like hot days), the other relative (i.e., number of exceedances of time series intrinsic thresholds) compound extreme events. Changes are assessed between a reference period (1971-2000) and a projection period (2021-2050). Our findings show an increase in the number of absolute compound events for the whole investigation area. The change signal of relative extremes is more region-dependent, but there is a strong signal change in the southern and eastern parts of Germany and the neighboring countries. Especially the Czech Republic shows strong change in absolute and relative extreme events.

Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro

2018-01-01

Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett-Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60 min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.

Statistics of Local Extremes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Bierbooms, W.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

2003-01-01

. A theoretical expression for the probability density function associated with local extremes of a stochasticprocess is presented. The expression is basically based on the lower four statistical moments and a bandwidth parameter. The theoretical expression is subsequently verified by comparison with simulated...

The Extreme Right in Eastern Europe and Territorial Issues

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miroslav Mareš

2009-08-01

Full Text Available This article analyses and compares the different territorial conceptions of the extreme right in Eastern Europe and their political impact, with a view to explaining how important the historical legacy of the supposed territorial and border claims and injustices is for the identity of the extreme right (or their parts in contemporary Eastern Europe. It analyses the historical roots of the territorial claims of the extreme right in the area, the current situation regarding their territorial claims and disputes, and the impact of these territorial claims on domestic politics, on the politics of the extreme right at the European level and on regional security in this area.

A comparison of observed extreme water levels at the German Bight elaborated through an extreme value analysis (EVA) with extremes derived from a regionally coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model (MPI-OM)

Science.gov (United States)

Möller, Jens; Heinrich, Hartmut

2017-04-01

As a consequence of climate change atmospheric and oceanographic extremes and their potential impacts on coastal regions are of growing concern for governmental authorities responsible for the transportation infrastructure. Highest risks for shipping as well as for rail and road traffic originate from combined effects of extremes of storm surges and heavy rainfall which sometimes lead to insufficient dewatering of inland waterways. The German Ministry of Transport and digital Infrastructure therefore has tasked its Network of Experts to investigate the possible evolutions of extreme threats for low lands and especially for Kiel Canal, which is an important shortcut for shipping between the North and Baltic Seas. In this study we present results of a comparison of an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) carried out on gauge observations and values derived from a coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model (MPI-OM). High water levels at the coasts of the North and Baltic Seas are one of the most important hazards which increase the risk of flooding of the low-lying land and prevents such areas from an adequate dewatering. In this study changes in the intensity (magnitude of the extremes) and duration of extreme water levels (above a selected threshold) are investigated for several gauge stations with data partly reaching back to 1843. Different methods are used for the extreme value statistics, (1) a stationary general Pareto distribution (GPD) model as well as (2) an instationary statistical model for better reproduction of the impact of climate change. Most gauge stations show an increase of the mean water level of about 1-2 mm/year, with a stronger increase of the highest water levels and a decrease (or lower increase) of the lowest water levels. Also, the duration of possible dewatering time intervals for the Kiel-Canal was analysed. The results for the historical gauge station observations are compared to the statistics of modelled water levels from the coupled

Medical and psychosocial implications of adolescent extreme obesity - acceptance and effects of structured care, short: Youth with Extreme Obesity Study (YES).

Science.gov (United States)

Wabitsch, Martin; Moss, Anja; Reinehr, Thomas; Wiegand, Susanna; Kiess, Wieland; Scherag, André; Holl, Reinhard; Holle, Rolf; Hebebrand, Johannes

2013-08-29

Prevalence rates of overweight and obesity have increased in German children and adolescents in the last three decades. Adolescents with extreme obesity represent a distinct risk group. On the basis of data obtained by the German Child and Youth Survey (KiGGS) and the German district military offices we estimate that the group of extremely obese adolescents (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2) currently encompasses approximately 200.000 adolescents aged 14 to 21 yrs. Conventional approaches focusing on weight reduction have largely proven futile for them. In addition, only a small percentage of adolescents with extreme obesity seek actively treatment for obesity while contributing disproportionately strong to health care costs. Because of somatic and psychiatric co-morbidities and social problems adolescents with extreme obesity require special attention within the medical care system. We have initiated the project "Medical and psychosocial implications of adolescents with extreme obesity--acceptance and effects of structured care, short: 'Youths with Extreme Obesity Study (YES)'", which aims at improving the medical care and social support structures for youths with extreme obesity in Germany. We focus on identification of these subjects (baseline examination) and their acceptance of diagnostic and subsequent treatment procedures. In a randomized controlled trial (RCT) we will investigate the effectiveness of a low key group intervention not focusing on weight loss but aimed at the provision of obesity related information, alleviation of social isolation, school and vocational integration and improvement of self-esteem in comparison to a control group treated in a conventional way with focus on weight loss. Interested individuals who fulfill current recommended criteria for weight loss surgery will be provided with a structured preparation and follow-up programs. All subjects will be monitored within a long-term observational study to elucidate medical and psychosocial outcomes

Base Oil-Extreme Pressure Additive Synergy in Lubricants

Science.gov (United States)

Extreme pressure (EP) additives are those containing reactive elements such as sulfur, phosphorus, and chlorine. In lubrication processes that occur under extremely severe conditions (e.g., high pressure and/or slow speed), these elements undergo chemical reactions generating new materials (tribofi...

SIZE AND SHAPE FACTOR EXTREMES OF SPHEROIDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Hlubinka

2011-05-01

Full Text Available In the paper we consider random prolate (oblate spheroids and their random profiles. The limiting distribution of the extremal characteristics of the spheroids is related to the limiting distribution of the corresponding extremal characteristics of the profiles. The difference between the analysis of the prolate and oblate spheroids is discussed. We propose the possible application of the theoretical results.

Moving in extreme environments:what’s extreme and who decides?

OpenAIRE

Cotter, James David; Tipton, Michael J

2014-01-01

Humans work, rest and play in immensely varied extreme environments. The term ‘extreme’ typically refers to insufficiency or excess of one or more stressors, such as thermal energy or gravity. Individuals’ behavioural and physiological capacity to endure and enjoy such environments varies immensely. Adverse effects of acute exposure to these environments are readily identifiable (e.g. heat stroke or bone fracture), whereas adverse effects of chronic exposure (e.g. stress fractures or osteopor...

Detecting change-points in extremes

KAUST Repository

Dupuis, D. J.

2015-01-01

Even though most work on change-point estimation focuses on changes in the mean, changes in the variance or in the tail distribution can lead to more extreme events. In this paper, we develop a new method of detecting and estimating the change-points in the tail of multiple time series data. In addition, we adapt existing tail change-point detection methods to our specific problem and conduct a thorough comparison of different methods in terms of performance on the estimation of change-points and computational time. We also examine three locations on the U.S. northeast coast and demonstrate that the methods are useful for identifying changes in seasonally extreme warm temperatures.

Extremes in nature

CERN Document Server

Salvadori, Gianfausto; Kottegoda, Nathabandu T

2007-01-01

This book is about the theoretical and practical aspects of the statistics of Extreme Events in Nature. Most importantly, this is the first text in which Copulas are introduced and used in Geophysics. Several topics are fully original, and show how standard models and calculations can be improved by exploiting the opportunities offered by Copulas. In addition, new quantities useful for design and risk assessment are introduced.

Extreme climate in China. Facts, simulation and projection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Hui-Jun; Sun, Jian-Qi; Chen, Huo-Po; Zhu, Ya-Li; Zhang, Ying; Jiang, Da-Bang; Lang, Xian-Mei; Fan, Ke; Yu, En-Tao [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics; Yang, Song [NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2012-06-15

In this paper, studies on extreme climate in China including extreme temperature and precipitation, dust weather activity, tropical cyclone activity, intense snowfall and cold surge activity, floods, and droughts are reviewed based on the peer-reviewed publications in recent decades. The review is focused first on the climatological features, variability, and trends in the past half century and then on simulations and projections based on global and regional climate models. As the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increased throughout China, heat wave intensity and frequency overall increased in the past half century, with a large rate after the 1980s. The daily or yearly minimum SAT increased more significantly than the mean or maximum SAT. The long-term change in precipitation is predominantly characterized by the so-called southern flood and northern drought pattern in eastern China and by the overall increase over Northwest China. The interdecadal variation of monsoon, represented by the monsoon weakening in the end of 1970s, is largely responsible for this change in mean precipitation. Precipitation-related extreme events (e.g., heavy rainfall and intense snowfall) have become more frequent and intense generally over China in the recent years, with large spatial features. Dust weather activity, however, has become less frequent over northern China in the recent years, as result of weakened cold surge activity, reinforced precipitation, and improved vegetation condition. State-of-the-art climate models are capable of reproducing some features of the mean climate and extreme climate events. However, discrepancies among models in simulating and projecting the mean and extreme climate are also demonstrated by many recent studies. Regional models with higher resolutions often perform better than global models. To predict and project climate variations and extremes, many new approaches and schemes based on dynamical models, statistical methods, or their

Rehabilitation Trends After Lower Extremity Amputations in Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Kayssi, Ahmed; Dilkas, Steven; Dance, Derry L; de Mestral, Charles; Forbes, Thomas L; Roche-Nagle, Graham

2017-05-01

The heterogeneity of medical complications that lead to amputation has resulted in a diverse patient population with differing rehabilitation needs; however, the rehabilitation trends for patients with lower extremity amputations across Canada have not been studied previously. To describe trends in rehabilitation after lower extremity amputations and the factors affecting rehabilitation length of stay in Canada. Retrospective cohort analysis. Canadian inpatient rehabilitation facilities that received persons with lower extremity amputations discharged from academic or community hospitals. Patients underwent lower extremity amputations between 2006 and 2009 for nontraumatic indications and were then discharged to a rehabilitation facility. Patients were identified from the Canadian Institute for Health Information's Discharge Abstract Database that includes hospital admissions across Canada except Quebec. Inpatient rehabilitation after lower extremity amputations. Length of stay, discharge destination, and change in total and motor function scores. The analysis included 5342 persons who underwent lower extremity amputations, 1904 of whom were transferred to a rehabilitation facility (36%). Patients most commonly underwent single below-knee (74%) and above-knee (17%) amputations. The duration of rehabilitation varied by whether the amputation was performed by a vascular (median = 36 days), orthopedic (median = 38 days), or general surgeon (median = 35 days). The overall median length of stay was 36 days. Most patients (72%) subsequently were discharged home and 9% were readmitted to hospital. Predictors of longer rehabilitation included amputation by an orthopedic surgeon (beta = 5.0, P ≤ .01), older age (beta = 0.2, P ≤ .01), and a history of ischemic heart disease (beta = 3.8, P = .03) or congestive heart failure (beta = 5, P = .04). Patients who spent Canada after lower extremity amputation varies by the type of surgeon performing the amputation. Advanced age

Francis Bacon's New Science: Rhetoric and the Transformative Power of Print.

Science.gov (United States)

Heckel, David

The process of projecting textual models onto the phenomenal world began with the invention of writing and accelerated through the manuscript culture of classical antiquity and the Middle Ages into the age of print. In Francis Bacon's work, the book (a metaphor for the phenomenal world) adapted to the demands of the printed text and reflects the…

Design of manufacturable 3D extremal elastic microstructure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andreassen, Erik; Lazarov, Boyan Stefanov; Sigmund, Ole

2014-01-01

We present a method to design manufacturable extremal elastic materials. Extremal materials can possess interesting properties such as a negative Poisson's ratio. The effective properties of the obtained microstructures are shown to be close to the theoretical limit given by mathematical bounds...

Extremity perfusion for sarcoma

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hoekstra, Harald Joan

2008-01-01

For more than 50 years, the technique of extremity perfusion has been explored in the limb salvage treatment of local, recurrent, and multifocal sarcomas. The "discovery" of tumor necrosis factor-or. in combination with melphalan was a real breakthrough in the treatment of primarily irresectable

Typologies of extreme longevity myths.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Robert D; Desjardins, Bertrand; McLaughlin, Kirsten; Poulain, Michel; Perls, Thomas T

2010-01-01

Purpose. Political, national, religious, and other motivations have led the media and even scientists to errantly accept extreme longevity claims prima facie. We describe various causes of false claims of extraordinary longevity. Design and Methods. American Social Security Death Index files for the period 1980-2009 were queried for individuals with birth and death dates yielding ages 110+ years of age. Frequency was compared to a list of age-validated supercentenarians maintained by the Gerontology Research Group who died during the same time period. Age claims of 110+ years and the age validation experiences of the authors facilitated a list of typologies of false age claims. Results. Invalid age claim rates increase with age from 65% at age 110-111 to 98% by age 115 to 100% for 120+ years. Eleven typologies of false claims were: Religious Authority Myth, Village Elder Myth, Fountain of Youth Myth (substance), Shangri-La Myth (geographic), Nationalist Pride, Spiritual Practice, Familial Longevity, Individual and/or Family Notoriety, Military Service, Administrative Entry Error, and Pension-Social Entitlement Fraud. Conclusions. Understanding various causes of false extreme age claims is important for placing current, past, and future extreme longevity claims in context and for providing a necessary level of skepticism.

Moderate and extreme maternal obesity.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Abdelmaboud, M O

2012-05-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of moderate and extreme obesity among an Irish obstetric population over a 10-year period, and to evaluate the obstetric features of such pregnancies. Of 31,869 women delivered during the years 2000-2009, there were 306 women in the study group, including 173 in the moderate or Class 2 obese category (BMI 35-39.9) and 133 in the extreme or Class 3 obese category (BMI > or = 40).The prevalence of obese women with BMI > or = 35 was 9.6 per 1000 (0.96%), with an upward trend observed from 2.1 per 1000 in the year 2000, to 11.8 per 1000 in the year 2009 (P = 0.001). There was an increase in emergency caesarean section (EMCS) risk for primigravida versus multigravid women, within both obese categories (P < 0.001). However, there was no significant difference in EMCS rates observed between Class 2 and Class 3 obese women, when matched for parity. The prevalence of moderate and extreme obesity reported in this population is high, and appears to be increasing. The increased rates of abdominal delivery, and the levels of associated morbidity observed, have serious implications for such women embarking on pregnancy.

Typologies of Extreme Longevity Myths

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert D. Young

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose. Political, national, religious, and other motivations have led the media and even scientists to errantly accept extreme longevity claims prima facie. We describe various causes of false claims of extraordinary longevity. Design and Methods. American Social Security Death Index files for the period 1980–2009 were queried for individuals with birth and death dates yielding ages 110+ years of age. Frequency was compared to a list of age-validated supercentenarians maintained by the Gerontology Research Group who died during the same time period. Age claims of 110+ years and the age validation experiences of the authors facilitated a list of typologies of false age claims. Results. Invalid age claim rates increase with age from 65% at age 110-111 to 98% by age 115 to 100% for 120+ years. Eleven typologies of false claims were: Religious Authority Myth, Village Elder Myth, Fountain of Youth Myth (substance, Shangri-La Myth (geographic, Nationalist Pride, Spiritual Practice, Familial Longevity, Individual and/or Family Notoriety, Military Service, Administrative Entry Error, and Pension-Social Entitlement Fraud. Conclusions. Understanding various causes of false extreme age claims is important for placing current, past, and future extreme longevity claims in context and for providing a necessary level of skepticism.

Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

2017-10-01

Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

Early neurodevelopmental outcomes of extremely preterm infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogers, Elizabeth E; Hintz, Susan R

2016-12-01

Infants born at extreme preterm gestation are at risk for both death and disability. Although rates of survival have improved for this population, and some evidence suggests a trend toward decreased neuromotor impairment over the past decades, a significant improvement in overall early neurodevelopmental outcome has not yet been realized. This review will examine the rates and types of neurodevelopmental impairment seen after extremely preterm birth, including neurosensory, motor, cognitive, and behavioral outcomes. We focus on early outcomes in the first 18-36 months of life, as the majority of large neonatal studies examining neurodevelopmental outcomes stop at this age. However, this early age is clearly just a first glimpse into lifetime outcomes; the neurodevelopmental effects of extreme prematurity may last through school age, adolescence, and beyond. Importantly, prematurity appears to be an independent risk factor for adverse development, but this population demonstrates considerable variability in the types and severity of impairments. Understanding both the nature and prevalence of neurodevelopmental impairment among extremely preterm infants is important because it can lead to targeted interventions that in turn may lead to improved outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Software challenges in extreme scale systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarkar, Vivek; Harrod, William; Snavely, Allan E

2009-01-01

Computer systems anticipated in the 2015 - 2020 timeframe are referred to as Extreme Scale because they will be built using massive multi-core processors with 100's of cores per chip. The largest capability Extreme Scale system is expected to deliver Exascale performance of the order of 10 18 operations per second. These systems pose new critical challenges for software in the areas of concurrency, energy efficiency and resiliency. In this paper, we discuss the implications of the concurrency and energy efficiency challenges on future software for Extreme Scale Systems. From an application viewpoint, the concurrency and energy challenges boil down to the ability to express and manage parallelism and locality by exploring a range of strong scaling and new-era weak scaling techniques. For expressing parallelism and locality, the key challenges are the ability to expose all of the intrinsic parallelism and locality in a programming model, while ensuring that this expression of parallelism and locality is portable across a range of systems. For managing parallelism and locality, the OS-related challenges include parallel scalability, spatial partitioning of OS and application functionality, direct hardware access for inter-processor communication, and asynchronous rather than interrupt-driven events, which are accompanied by runtime system challenges for scheduling, synchronization, memory management, communication, performance monitoring, and power management. We conclude by discussing the importance of software-hardware co-design in addressing the fundamental challenges for application enablement on Extreme Scale systems.

A Generalized Framework for Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Ragno, E.; Cheng, L.; Sadegh, M.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Empirical trends in climate variables including precipitation, temperature, snow-water equivalent at regional to continental scales are evidence of changes in climate over time. The evolving climate conditions and human activity-related factors such as urbanization and population growth can exert further changes in weather and climate extremes. As a result, the scientific community faces an increasing demand for updated appraisal of the time-varying climate extremes. The purpose of this study is to offer a robust and flexible statistical tool for non-stationary extreme value analysis which can better characterize the severity and likelihood of extreme climatic variables. This is critical to ensure a more resilient environment in a changing climate. Following the positive feedback on the first version of Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) Toolbox by Cheng at al. 2014, we present an improved version, i.e. NEVA2.0. The upgraded version herein builds upon a newly-developed hybrid evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for numerical parameters estimation and uncertainty assessment. This addition leads to a more robust uncertainty estimates of return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes under both stationary and non-stationary assumptions. Moreover, NEVA2.0 is flexible in incorporating any user-specified covariate other than the default time-covariate (e.g., CO2 emissions, large scale climatic oscillation patterns). The new feature will allow users to examine non-stationarity of extremes induced by physical conditions that underlie the extreme events (e.g. antecedent soil moisture deficit, large-scale climatic teleconnections, urbanization). In addition, the new version offers an option to generate stationary and/or non-stationary rainfall Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves that are widely used for risk assessment and infrastructure design. Finally, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) of the package is provided, making NEVA

Counting States of Near-Extremal Black Holes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horowitz, G.T.; Strominger, A.

1996-01-01

A six-dimensional black string is considered and its Bekenstein-Hawking entropy computed. It is shown that to leading order above extremality this entropy precisely counts the number of string states with the given energy and charges. This identification implies that Hawking decay of the near-extremal black string can be analyzed in string perturbation theory and is perturbatively unitary. copyright 1996 The American Physical Society

Tukey max-stable processes for spatial extremes

KAUST Repository

Xu, Ganggang

2016-09-21

We propose a new type of max-stable process that we call the Tukey max-stable process for spatial extremes. It brings additional flexibility to modeling dependence structures among spatial extremes. The statistical properties of the Tukey max-stable process are demonstrated theoretically and numerically. Simulation studies and an application to Swiss rainfall data indicate the effectiveness of the proposed process. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.

Extreme-value dependence: An application to exchange rate markets

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez, Viviana

2007-04-01

Extreme value theory (EVT) focuses on modeling the tail behavior of a loss distribution using only extreme values rather than the whole data set. For a sample of 10 countries with dirty/free float regimes, we investigate whether paired currencies exhibit a pattern of asymptotic dependence. That is, whether an extremely large appreciation or depreciation in the nominal exchange rate of one country might transmit to another. In general, after controlling for volatility clustering and inertia in returns, we do not find evidence of extreme-value dependence between paired exchange rates. However, for asymptotic-independent paired returns, we find that tail dependency of exchange rates is stronger under large appreciations than under large depreciations.

Microstructured extremely thin absorber solar cells

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Biancardo, Matteo; Krebs, Frederik C

2007-01-01

In this paper we present the realization of extremely thin absorber (ETA) solar cells employing conductive glass substrates functionalized with TiO2 microstructures produced by embossing. Nanocrystalline or compact TiO2 films on Indium doped tin oxide (ITO) glass substrates were embossed by press......In this paper we present the realization of extremely thin absorber (ETA) solar cells employing conductive glass substrates functionalized with TiO2 microstructures produced by embossing. Nanocrystalline or compact TiO2 films on Indium doped tin oxide (ITO) glass substrates were embossed...

A scheme for designing extreme multistable discrete dynamical ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

A scheme for designing extreme multistable discrete dynamical systems ... Abstract. In this paper, we propose a scheme for designing discrete extreme multistable systems coupling two identical dynamical systems. Existence ... Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Calcutta, 92 APC Road, Kolkata 700 009, India ...

Insertion sequences enrichment in extreme Red sea brine pool vent

KAUST Repository

Elbehery, Ali H. A.

2016-12-03

Mobile genetic elements are major agents of genome diversification and evolution. Limited studies addressed their characteristics, including abundance, and role in extreme habitats. One of the rare natural habitats exposed to multiple-extreme conditions, including high temperature, salinity and concentration of heavy metals, are the Red Sea brine pools. We assessed the abundance and distribution of different mobile genetic elements in four Red Sea brine pools including the world’s largest known multiple-extreme deep-sea environment, the Red Sea Atlantis II Deep. We report a gradient in the abundance of mobile genetic elements, dramatically increasing in the harshest environment of the pool. Additionally, we identified a strong association between the abundance of insertion sequences and extreme conditions, being highest in the harshest and deepest layer of the Red Sea Atlantis II Deep. Our comparative analyses of mobile genetic elements in secluded, extreme and relatively non-extreme environments, suggest that insertion sequences predominantly contribute to polyextremophiles genome plasticity.

Modeling annual extreme temperature using generalized extreme value distribution: A case study in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Hasan, Husna; Salam, Norfatin; Kassim, Suraiya

2013-04-01

Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modeled by fitting the annual maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests are used to detect stochastic trends among the stations. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Three models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. The results show that Subang and Bayan Lepas stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters while Kota Kinabalu and Sibu stations are suitable with a model in the logarithm of the scale parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

The Contribution of Extreme Precipitation to the Total Precipitation in China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

SUN Jian-Qi

2012-01-01

Using daily precipitation data from weather stations in China, the variations in the contribution of extreme precipitation to the total precipitation are analyzed. It is found that extreme precipitation accounts for approximately one third of the total precipitation based on the overall mean for China. Over the past half century, extreme precipitation has played a dominant role in the year-to-year variability of the total precipitation. On the decadal time scale, the extreme precipitation makes different contributions to the wetting and drying regions of China. The wetting trends of particular regions are mainly attributed to increases in extreme precipitation; in contrast, the drying trends of other regions are mainly due to decreases in non-extreme precipitation.

Temperature extremes: Effect on plant growth and development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jerry L. Hatfield

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Temperature is a primary factor affecting the rate of plant development. Warmer temperatures expected with climate change and the potential for more extreme temperature events will impact plant productivity. Pollination is one of the most sensitive phenological stages to temperature extremes across all species and during this developmental stage temperature extremes would greatly affect production. Few adaptation strategies are available to cope with temperature extremes at this developmental stage other than to select for plants which shed pollen during the cooler periods of the day or are indeterminate so flowering occurs over a longer period of the growing season. In controlled environment studies, warm temperatures increased the rate of phenological development; however, there was no effect on leaf area or vegetative biomass compared to normal temperatures. The major impact of warmer temperatures was during the reproductive stage of development and in all cases grain yield in maize was significantly reduced by as much as 80−90% from a normal temperature regime. Temperature effects are increased by water deficits and excess soil water demonstrating that understanding the interaction of temperature and water will be needed to develop more effective adaptation strategies to offset the impacts of greater temperature extreme events associated with a changing climate.

Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events

Science.gov (United States)

Mühr, Bernhard; Kunz, Michael

2015-04-01

Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events Most natural disasters are related to extreme weather events (e.g. typhoons); weather conditions, however, are also highly relevant for humanitarian and disaster relief operations during and after other natural disaster like earthquakes. The internet service "Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung" (WF) provides various information on extreme weather events, especially when these events are associated with a high potential for large damage. The main focus of the platform is on Central Europe, but major events are also monitored worldwide on a daily routine. WF provides high-resolution forecast maps for many weather parameters which allow detailed and reliable predictions about weather conditions during the next days in the affected areas. The WF service became operational in February 2004 and is part of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) since 2007. At the end of 2011, CEDIM embarked a new type of interdisciplinary disaster research termed as forensic disaster analysis (FDA) in near real time. In case of an imminent extreme weather event WF plays an important role in CEDIM's FDA group. It provides early and precise information which are always available and updated several times during a day and gives advice and assists with articles and reports on extreme events.

Non-extremal D-instantons

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bergshoeff, E; Collinucci, A; Gran, U; Roest, D; Vandoren, S

2004-01-01

We construct the most general non-extremal deformation of the D-instanton solution with maximal rotational symmetry. The general non-supersymmetric solution carries electric charges of the SL(2,R) symmetry, which correspond to each of the three conjugacy classes of SL (2, R). Our calculations

Non-extremal D-instantons

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bergshoeff, E.; Collinucci, A.; Gran, U.; Roest, D.; Vandoren, S.

2004-01-01

We construct the most general non-extremal deformation of the D-instanton solution with maximal rotational symmetry. The general non-supersymmetric solution carries electric charges of the SL(2,R) symmetry, which correspond to each of the three conjugacy classes of SL(2,R). Our calculations

Multifractal Conceptualisation of Hydro-Meteorological Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D.; Lovejoy, S.

2009-04-01

Hydrology and more generally sciences involved in water resources management, technological or operational developments face a fundamental difficulty: the extreme variability of hydro-meteorological fields. It clearly appears today that this variability is a function of the observation scale and yield hydro-meteorological hazards. Throughout the world, the development of multifractal theory offers new techniques for handling such non-classical variability over wide ranges of time and space scales. The resulting stochastic simulations with a very limited number of parameters well reproduce the long range dependencies and the clustering of rainfall extremes often yielding fat tailed (i.e., an algebraic type) probability distributions. The goal of this work was to investigate the ability of using very short or incomplete data records for reliable statistical predictions of the extremes. In particular we discuss how to evaluate the uncertainty in the empirical or semi-analytical multifractal outcomes. We consider three main aspects of the evaluation, such as the scaling adequacy, the multifractal parameter estimation error and the quantile estimation error. We first use the multiplicative cascade model to generate long series of multifractal data. The simulated samples had to cover the range of the universal multifractal parameters widely available in the scientific literature for the rainfall and river discharges. Using these long multifractal series and their sub-samples, we defined a metric for parameter estimation error. Then using the sets of estimated parameters, we obtained the quantile values for a range of excedance probabilities from 5% to 0.01%. Plotting the error bars on a quantile plot enable an approximation of confidence intervals that would be particularly important for the predictions of multifractal extremes. We finally illustrate the efficiency of such concept on its application to a large database (more than 16000 selected stations over USA and

Lymphoscintigraphy in the diagnosis of extremity lymphedema

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Meifang; Lu Gang; Li Fang; Tian Jian

1994-01-01

Lymphoscintigraphy, using 99m Tc labeled antimony sulfur colloid and 99m Tc labeled dextran, was performed on 25 patients with swelling of upper or lower extremities for diagnosis of lymphedema. Five different lymphoscintigraphic patterns were identified, that is normal (4 cases), collaterals (2 cases), mixed (13 cases), dermal backflow (4 cases) and no backflow pattern (2 cases). Eight patients underwent operations for lympho-venous anastomoses on the involved extremity. The results indicate that lymphoscintigraphy has many advantages, such as simplicity and non-invasiveness, safety and reliability, being able to differentiate properties of extremity edema, to provide the information of morphologic changes and dynamically display lymphatic drainage and obstructive extent in the lymphatic system. The procedure is valuable for determination of the treatment modalities and the selection of patient for lymphatic microsurgery

Detection of trends in precipitation extremes in Zhejiang, east China

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tian, Ye; Xu, YuePing; Booij, Martijn J.; Lin, Shengji; Zhang, Qingqing; Lou, Zhanghua

2012-01-01

Extreme weather exerts a huge impact on human beings and it is of vital importance to study the regular pattern of meteorological and hydrological factors. In this paper, a selection of seven extreme indices is used to analyze the trend of precipitation extremes of 18 meteorological stations located

: tous les projets | Page 364 | CRDI - Centre de recherches pour le ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Sujet: CLIMATE CHANGE, ADAPTATION TO CHANGE, NATURAL DISASTERS, DISASTER PREPAREDNESS, DISASTER PREVENTION, DISASTER MANAGEMENT, RESEARCH RESULTS, POLICY MAKING. Région: Kenya, Malawi, Uganda, North of Sahara, South of Sahara. Programme: Changements climatiques.

: tous les projets | Page 340 | CRDI - Centre de recherches pour le ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Sujet: CLIMATE CHANGE, ADAPTATION TO CHANGE, ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION, NATURAL DISASTERS, DISASTER PREPAREDNESS, DISASTER PREVENTION, DISASTER MANAGEMENT. Région: Ghana, North of Sahara, South of Sahara. Programme: Changements climatiques. Financement total : CA$ ...

A new method of lower extremity immobilization in radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zheng, Xuhai; Dai, Tangzhi; Shu, Xiaochuan; Pu, Yuanxue; Feng, Gang; Li, Xuesong; Liao, Dongbiao; Du, Xiaobo

2012-01-01

We developed a new method for immobilization of the fix lower extremities by using a thermoplastic mask, a carbon fiber base plate, a customized headrest, and an adjustable angle holder. The lower extremities of 11 patients with lower extremity tumors were immobilized by this method. CT simulation was performed for each patient. For all 11 patients, the device fit was suitable and comfortable and had good reproducibility, which was proven in daily radiotherapy

Relationship of Lower Extremity Muscle Strength with Balance and Lower Extremity Functions in Elderly Women

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ferdi Başkurt

2018-03-01

Conclusions: Functional score, mobility and balance are related to lower extremity muscle strength in elderly women. Increasing muscle strength will reduce the risk of falls and increase independence.

Laws of small numbers extremes and rare events

CERN Document Server

Falk, Michael; Hüsler, Jürg

2004-01-01

Since the publication of the first edition of this seminar book in 1994, the theory and applications of extremes and rare events have enjoyed an enormous and still increasing interest. The intention of the book is to give a mathematically oriented development of the theory of rare events underlying various applications. This characteristic of the book was strengthened in the second edition by incorporating various new results on about 130 additional pages. Part II, which has been added in the second edition, discusses recent developments in multivariate extreme value theory. Particularly notable is a new spectral decomposition of multivariate distributions in univariate ones which makes multivariate questions more accessible in theory and practice. One of the most innovative and fruitful topics during the last decades was the introduction of generalized Pareto distributions in the univariate extreme value theory. Such a statistical modelling of extremes is now systematically developed in the multivariate fram...

Measuring risk of crude oil at extreme quantiles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša Žiković

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of VaR models at measuring risk for WTI oil one-month futures returns. Risk models, ranging from industry standards such as RiskMetrics and historical simulation to conditional extreme value model, are used to calculate commodity market risk at extreme quantiles: 0.95, 0.99, 0.995 and 0.999 for both long and short trading positions. Our results show that out of the tested fat tailed distributions, generalised Pareto distribution provides the best fit to both tails of oil returns although tails differ significantly, with the right tail having a higher tail index, indicative of more extreme events. The main conclusion is that, in the analysed period, only extreme value theory based models provide a reasonable degree of safety while widespread VaR models do not provide adequate risk coverage and their performance is especially weak for short position in oil.

Extreme Conditions Modeling Workshop Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coe, Ryan Geoffrey [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Neary, Vincent Sinclair [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lawon, Michael J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Yu, Yi-Hsiang [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Weber, Jochem [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2014-07-01

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) hosted the Wave Energy Converter (WEC) Extreme Conditions Modeling (ECM) Workshop in Albuquerque, New Mexico on May 13–14, 2014. The objective of the workshop was to review the current state of knowledge on how to numerically and experimentally model WECs in extreme conditions (e.g. large ocean storms) and to suggest how national laboratory resources could be used to improve ECM methods for the benefit of the wave energy industry. More than 30 U.S. and European WEC experts from industry, academia, and national research institutes attended the workshop, which consisted of presentations from W EC developers, invited keynote presentations from subject matter experts, breakout sessions, and a final plenary session .

Christian Extremism as a Domestic Terror Threat

Science.gov (United States)

2011-05-19

extremism with cultural relativism to universally deem extremist actions as justified.8 Religious extremism and conflict are not new. Conceivably, as...legitimized this practice, they forfeited their legitimacy and moral authority to govern.” Rudolph went on to state that his actions were to “embarrass and...funerals?7 Religion remains a significantly complex and controversial subject within any social culture . Like any social construct, religion is subject

Extreme value theory in emerging markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anđelić Goran

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the performance of extreme value theory (EVT with the daily stock index returns of four different emerging markets. The research covers the sample representing the Serbian (BELEXline, Croatian (CROBEX, Slovenian (SBI20, and Hungarian (BUX stock indexes using the data from January 2006 - September 2009. In the paper a performance test was carried out for the success of application of the extreme value theory in estimating and forecasting of the tails of daily return distribution of the analyzed stock indexes. Therefore the main goal is to determine whether EVT adequately estimates and forecasts the tails (2.5% and 5% at the tail of daily stock index return distribution in the emerging markets of Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, and Hungary. The applied methodology during the research includes analysis, synthesis and statistical/mathematical methods. Research results according to estimated Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD parameters indicate the necessity of applying market risk estimation methods, i.e. extreme value theory (EVT in the framework of a broader analysis of investment processes in emerging markets.

Changes in Extreme Events and the Potential Impacts on National Security

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, J.

2017-12-01

Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socio-economic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for changes in the future. Some of the extreme events that have already changed are heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surge, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local intricacies of societal and environmental factors that influences the level of exposure. The goal of this presentation is to discuss the national security implications of changes in extreme weather events and demonstrate how changes in extremes can lead to a host cascading issues. To illustrate this point, this presentation will provide examples of the various pathways that extreme events can increase disease burden and cause economic stress.

Imaging of upper extremity stress fractures in the athlete.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Mark W

2006-07-01

Although it is much less common than injuries in the lower extremities, an upper extremity stress injury can have a significant impact on an athlete. If an accurate and timely diagnosis is to be made, the clinician must have a high index of suspicion of a stress fracture in any athlete who is involved in a throwing, weightlifting, or upper extremity weight-bearing sport and presents with chronic pain in the upper extremity. Imaging should play an integral role in the work-up of these patients; if initial radiographs are unrevealing, further cross-sectional imaging should be strongly considered. Although a three-phase bone scan is highly sensitive in this regard, MRI has become the study of choice at most centers.

Influence of North Atlantic modes on European climate extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Proemmel, K.; Cubasch, U.

2017-12-01

It is well known that the North Atlantic strongly influences European climate. Only few studies exist that focus on its impact on climate extremes. We are interested in these extremes and the processes and mechanisms behind it. For the analysis of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) we use simulations performed with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The NAO has a strong impact especially on European winter and the changes in minimum temperature are even larger than in maximum temperature. The impact of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV) on climate extremes is analyzed in ECHAM6 simulations forced with AMV warm and AMV cold sea surface temperature patterns. We analyze different extreme indices and try to understand the processes.

Heavy Tail Behavior of Rainfall Extremes across Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Castellarin, A.; Kreibich, H.; Vorogushyn, S.; Merz, B.

2017-12-01

Distributions are termed heavy-tailed if extreme values are more likely than would be predicted by probability distributions that have exponential asymptotic behavior. Heavy-tail behavior often leads to surprise, because historical observations can be a poor guide for the future. Heavy-tail behavior seems to be widespread for hydro-meteorological extremes, such as extreme rainfall and flood events. To date there have been only vague hints to explain under which conditions these extremes show heavy-tail behavior. We use an observational data set consisting of 11 climate variables at 1440 stations across Germany. This homogenized, gap-free data set covers 110 years (1901-2010) at daily resolution. We estimate the upper tail behavior, including its uncertainty interval, of daily precipitation extremes for the 1,440 stations at the annual and seasonal time scales. Different tail indicators are tested, including the shape parameter of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, the upper tail ratio and the obesity index. In a further step, we explore to which extent the tail behavior can be explained by geographical and climate factors. A large number of characteristics is derived, such as station elevation, degree of continentality, aridity, measures for quantifying the variability of humidity and wind velocity, or event-triggering large-scale atmospheric situation. The link between the upper tail behavior and these characteristics is investigated via data mining methods capable of detecting non-linear relationships in large data sets. This exceptionally rich observational data set, in terms of number of stations, length of time series and number of explaining variables, allows insights into the upper tail behavior which is rarely possible given the typical observational data sets available.

Contribution to the theoretical study of order-disorder phenomena in the electrical properties of alloys (1963); Contribution a l'etude theorique des phenomenes d'ordre dans les proprietes electriques des alliages (1963)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beal, M T [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

1963-07-01

We have study theoretically the ordering of alloys and its influence an electrical resistivity. We have looked at the cases of concentrated, non magnetic alloys such as Cu Zn {beta} or Cu{sub 3}Au and of diluted, magnetic alloys such as noble matrix with rare earth impurities. In both cases, a simple method of molecular field with nearest neighbour interactions is used. Scattering cross sections are calculated with free electrons and Born approximation. The electrical properties are described with a good accuracy by single diffusions on each center (long range order). But some anomalies near to the ordering temperature are caused by double diffusions on pairs of interacting atoms or spins (local order). (author) [French] On presente une etude theorique des phenomenes d'ordre et de leur influence sur les proprietes electriques des alliages. Deux cas sont envisages: celui des alliages non magnetiques concentres, tels que Cu Zn {beta} ou Cu{sub 3}Au et celui d'alliages magnetiques tres dilues du type matrice noble impuretes de terres rares. Dans les deux cas on utilise une methode simple de champ moleculaire avec interactions entre plus proches voisins seulement. Les sections efficaces de diffusion sont calculees dans un modele d'electrons libres et dans l'approximation de Born. Les proprietes electriques sont decrites en premiere approximation par les diffusions simples sur chaque atome ou spin (ordre a longue distance). Mais elles presentent des anomalies a la temperature d'ordre dues aux diffusions doubles sur des paires d'atomes ou de spins plus proches voisins (ordre local). (auteur)

Violent Extremism, Community-Based Violence Prevention, and Mental Health Professionals.

Science.gov (United States)

Weine, Stevan M; Stone, Andrew; Saeed, Aliya; Shanfield, Stephen; Beahrs, John; Gutman, Alisa; Mihajlovic, Aida

2017-01-01

New community-based initiatives being developed to address violent extremism in the United States are utilizing mental health services and leadership. This article reviews current approaches to preventing violent extremism, the contribution that mental illness and psychosocial problems can make to violent extremism, and the rationale for integrating mental health strategies into preventing violent extremism. The authors describe a community-based targeted violence prevention model and the potential roles of mental health professionals. This model consists of a multidisciplinary team that assesses at-risk individuals with comprehensive threat and behavioral evaluations, arranges for ongoing support and treatment, conducts follow-up evaluations, and offers outreach, education, and resources for communities. This model would enable mental health professionals in local communities to play key roles in preventing violent extremism through their practice and leadership.

Sénégal : tous les projets | Page 4 | CRDI - Centre de recherches ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

End Date: 24 octobre 2011. Sujet: CLIMATE CHANGE, ADAPTATION TO CHANGE, DISASTER PREPAREDNESS, COMMUNITY PARTICIPATION, NEIGHBOURHOOD ORGANIZATIONS, LEADERSHIP. Région: Burkina Faso, Mali, Senegal, North of Sahara, South of Sahara. Programme: Changements climatiques.

Entropy, extremality, euclidean variations, and the equations of motion

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Xi; Lewkowycz, Aitor

2018-01-01

We study the Euclidean gravitational path integral computing the Rényi entropy and analyze its behavior under small variations. We argue that, in Einstein gravity, the extremality condition can be understood from the variational principle at the level of the action, without having to solve explicitly the equations of motion. This set-up is then generalized to arbitrary theories of gravity, where we show that the respective entanglement entropy functional needs to be extremized. We also extend this result to all orders in Newton's constant G N , providing a derivation of quantum extremality. Understanding quantum extremality for mixtures of states provides a generalization of the dual of the boundary modular Hamiltonian which is given by the bulk modular Hamiltonian plus the area operator, evaluated on the so-called modular extremal surface. This gives a bulk prescription for computing the relative entropies to all orders in G N . We also comment on how these ideas can be used to derive an integrated version of the equations of motion, linearized around arbitrary states.

Extreme Facial Expressions Classification Based on Reality Parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Rahim, Mohd Shafry Mohd; Rad, Abdolvahab Ehsani; Rehman, Amjad; Altameem, Ayman

2014-09-01

Extreme expressions are really type of emotional expressions that are basically stimulated through the strong emotion. An example of those extreme expression is satisfied through tears. So to be able to provide these types of features; additional elements like fluid mechanism (particle system) plus some of physics techniques like (SPH) are introduced. The fusion of facile animation with SPH exhibits promising results. Accordingly, proposed fluid technique using facial animation is the real tenor for this research to get the complex expression, like laugh, smile, cry (tears emergence) or the sadness until cry strongly, as an extreme expression classification that's happens on the human face in some cases.

On the limit distribution of lower extreme generalized order statistics

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Abstract. In a wide subclass of generalized order statistics (gOs), which contains most of the known and important models of ordered random variables, weak conver- gence of lower extremes are developed. A recent result of extreme value theory of m−gOs (as well as the classical extreme value theory of ordinary order ...

A Fiducial Approach to Extremes and Multiple Comparisons

Science.gov (United States)

Wandler, Damian V.

2010-01-01

Generalized fiducial inference is a powerful tool for many difficult problems. Based on an extension of R. A. Fisher's work, we used generalized fiducial inference for two extreme value problems and a multiple comparison procedure. The first extreme value problem is dealing with the generalized Pareto distribution. The generalized Pareto…

Non-Stationary Dependence Structures for Spatial Extremes

KAUST Repository

Huser, Raphaël

2016-03-03

Max-stable processes are natural models for spatial extremes because they provide suitable asymptotic approximations to the distribution of maxima of random fields. In the recent past, several parametric families of stationary max-stable models have been developed, and fitted to various types of data. However, a recurrent problem is the modeling of non-stationarity. In this paper, we develop non-stationary max-stable dependence structures in which covariates can be easily incorporated. Inference is performed using pairwise likelihoods, and its performance is assessed by an extensive simulation study based on a non-stationary locally isotropic extremal t model. Evidence that unknown parameters are well estimated is provided, and estimation of spatial return level curves is discussed. The methodology is demonstrated with temperature maxima recorded over a complex topography. Models are shown to satisfactorily capture extremal dependence.

Black breast cancer survivors experience greater upper extremity disability.

Science.gov (United States)

Dean, Lorraine T; DeMichele, Angela; LeBlanc, Mously; Stephens-Shields, Alisa; Li, Susan Q; Colameco, Chris; Coursey, Morgan; Mao, Jun J

2015-11-01

Over one-third of breast cancer survivors experience upper extremity disability. Black women present with factors associated with greater upper extremity disability, including: increased body mass index (BMI), more advanced disease stage at diagnosis, and varying treatment type compared with Whites. No prior research has evaluated the relationship between race and upper extremity disability using validated tools and controlling for these factors. Data were drawn from a survey study among 610 women with stage I-III hormone receptor positive breast cancer. The disabilities of the arm, shoulder and hand (QuickDASH) is an 11-item self-administered questionnaire that has been validated for breast cancer survivors to assess global upper extremity function over the past 7 days. Linear regression and mediation analysis estimated the relationships between race, BMI and QuickDASH score, adjusting for demographics and treatment types. Black women (n = 98) had 7.3 points higher average QuickDASH scores than White (n = 512) women (p disability by 40 %. Even several years post-treatment, Black breast cancer survivors had greater upper extremity disability, which was partially mediated by higher BMIs. Close monitoring of high BMI Black women may be an important step in reducing disparities in cancer survivorship. More research is needed on the relationship between race, BMI, and upper extremity disability.

Polygenic determinants in extremes of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

Science.gov (United States)

Dron, Jacqueline S; Wang, Jian; Low-Kam, Cécile; Khetarpal, Sumeet A; Robinson, John F; McIntyre, Adam D; Ban, Matthew R; Cao, Henian; Rhainds, David; Dubé, Marie-Pierre; Rader, Daniel J; Lettre, Guillaume; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Hegele, Robert A

2017-11-01

HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) remains a superior biochemical predictor of CVD risk, but its genetic basis is incompletely defined. In patients with extreme HDL-C concentrations, we concurrently evaluated the contributions of multiple large- and small-effect genetic variants. In a discovery cohort of 255 unrelated lipid clinic patients with extreme HDL-C levels, we used a targeted next-generation sequencing panel to evaluate rare variants in known HDL metabolism genes, simultaneously with common variants bundled into a polygenic trait score. Two additional cohorts were used for validation and included 1,746 individuals from the Montréal Heart Institute Biobank and 1,048 individuals from the University of Pennsylvania. Findings were consistent between cohorts: we found rare heterozygous large-effect variants in 18.7% and 10.9% of low- and high-HDL-C patients, respectively. We also found common variant accumulation, indicated by extreme polygenic trait scores, in an additional 12.8% and 19.3% of overall cases of low- and high-HDL-C extremes, respectively. Thus, the genetic basis of extreme HDL-C concentrations encountered clinically is frequently polygenic, with contributions from both rare large-effect and common small-effect variants. Multiple types of genetic variants should be considered as contributing factors in patients with extreme dyslipidemia. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

What happens at the horizon(s) of an extreme black hole?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murata, Keiju; Reall, Harvey S; Tanahashi, Norihiro

2013-01-01

A massless scalar field exhibits an instability at the event horizon of an extreme black hole. We study numerically the nonlinear evolution of this instability for spherically symmetric perturbations of an extreme Reissner–Nordstrom (RN) black hole. We find that generically the endpoint of the instability is a non-extreme RN solution. However, there exist fine-tuned initial perturbations for which the instability never decays. In this case, the perturbed spacetime describes a time-dependent extreme black hole. Such solutions settle down to extreme RN outside, but not on, the event horizon. The event horizon remains smooth but certain observers who cross it at late time experience large gradients there. Our results indicate that these dynamical extreme black holes admit a C 1 extension across an inner (Cauchy) horizon. (paper)

Spatial extreme learning machines: An application on prediction of disease counts.

Science.gov (United States)

Prates, Marcos O

2018-01-01

Extreme learning machines have gained a lot of attention by the machine learning community because of its interesting properties and computational advantages. With the increase in collection of information nowadays, many sources of data have missing information making statistical analysis harder or unfeasible. In this paper, we present a new model, coined spatial extreme learning machine, that combine spatial modeling with extreme learning machines keeping the nice properties of both methodologies and making it very flexible and robust. As explained throughout the text, the spatial extreme learning machines have many advantages in comparison with the traditional extreme learning machines. By a simulation study and a real data analysis we present how the spatial extreme learning machine can be used to improve imputation of missing data and uncertainty prediction estimation.

The National Extreme Events Data and Research Center (NEED)

Science.gov (United States)

Gulledge, J.; Kaiser, D. P.; Wilbanks, T. J.; Boden, T.; Devarakonda, R.

2014-12-01

The Climate Change Science Institute at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is establishing the National Extreme Events Data and Research Center (NEED), with the goal of transforming how the United States studies and prepares for extreme weather events in the context of a changing climate. NEED will encourage the myriad, distributed extreme events research communities to move toward the adoption of common practices and will develop a new database compiling global historical data on weather- and climate-related extreme events (e.g., heat waves, droughts, hurricanes, etc.) and related information about impacts, costs, recovery, and available research. Currently, extreme event information is not easy to access and is largely incompatible and inconsistent across web sites. NEED's database development will take into account differences in time frames, spatial scales, treatments of uncertainty, and other parameters and variables, and leverage informatics tools developed at ORNL (i.e., the Metadata Editor [1] and Mercury [2]) to generate standardized, robust documentation for each database along with a web-searchable catalog. In addition, NEED will facilitate convergence on commonly accepted definitions and standards for extreme events data and will enable integrated analyses of coupled threats, such as hurricanes/sea-level rise/flooding and droughts/wildfires. Our goal and vision is that NEED will become the premiere integrated resource for the general study of extreme events. References: [1] Devarakonda, Ranjeet, et al. "OME: Tool for generating and managing metadata to handle BigData." Big Data (Big Data), 2014 IEEE International Conference on. IEEE, 2014. [2] Devarakonda, Ranjeet, et al. "Mercury: reusable metadata management, data discovery and access system." Earth Science Informatics 3.1-2 (2010): 87-94.

On the Limit Distribution of Lower Extreme Generalized Order Statistics

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

In a wide subclass of generalized order statistics ( g O s ) , which contains most of the known and important models of ordered random variables, weak convergence of lower extremes are developed. A recent result of extreme value theory of m − g O s (as well as the classical extreme value theory of ordinary order statistics) ...

Predictability and possible earlier awareness of extreme precipitation across Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Lavers, David; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David; Zsoter, Ervin

2017-04-01

Extreme hydrological events can cause large socioeconomic damages in Europe. In winter, a large proportion of these flood episodes are associated with atmospheric rivers, a region of intense water vapour transport within the warm sector of extratropical cyclones. When preparing for such extreme events, forecasts of precipitation from numerical weather prediction models or river discharge forecasts from hydrological models are generally used. Given the strong link between water vapour transport (integrated vapour transport IVT) and heavy precipitation, it is possible that IVT could be used to warn of extreme events. Furthermore, as IVT is located in extratropical cyclones, it is hypothesized to be a more predictable variable due to its link with synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics. In this research, we firstly provide an overview of the predictability of IVT and precipitation forecasts, and secondly introduce and evaluate the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT. The EFI is a tool that has been developed to evaluate how ensemble forecasts differ from the model climate, thus revealing the extremeness of the forecast. The ability of the IVT EFI to capture extreme precipitation across Europe during winter 2013/14, 2014/15, and 2015/16 is presented. The results show that the IVT EFI is more capable than the precipitation EFI of identifying extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. However, the precipitation EFI is superior during the negative NAO phase and at shorter lead times. An IVT EFI example is shown for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlighting its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes.

Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

Science.gov (United States)

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; van der Wiel, Karin; Sebastian, Antonia; Singh, Roop; Arrighi, Julie; Otto, Friederike; Haustein, Karsten; Li, Sihan; Vecchi, Gabriel; Cullen, Heidi

2017-12-01

During August 25-30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26-28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: the return period of the highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy-1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) and return periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 mm 3dy-1) over a large area in the current climate. Observations since 1880 over the region show a clear positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation of between 12% and 22%, roughly two times the increase of the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere expected for 1 °C warming according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This would indicate that the moisture flux was increased by both the moisture content and stronger winds or updrafts driven by the heat of condensation of the moisture. We also analysed extreme rainfall in the Houston area in three ensembles of 25 km resolution models. The first also shows 2 × CC scaling, the second 1 × CC scaling and the third did not have a realistic representation of extreme rainfall on the Gulf Coast. Extrapolating these results to the 2017 event, we conclude that global warming made the precipitation about 15% (8%-19%) more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5-5) times more likely. This analysis makes clear that extreme rainfall events along the Gulf Coast are on the rise. And while fortifying Houston to fully withstand the impact of an event as extreme as Hurricane Harvey may not be economically feasible, it is critical that information regarding the increasing risk of extreme rainfall events in general should be part of the discussion about future improvements to Houston’s flood protection system.

Rapid adaptation of microalgae to bodies of water with extreme pollution from uranium mining: An explanation of how mesophilic organisms can rapidly colonise extremely toxic environments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

García-Balboa, C.; Baselga-Cervera, B. [Genetica, Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain); García-Sanchez, A.; Igual, J.M. [Instituto de Recursos Naturales y Agrobiología de Salamanca (IRNASA-CSIC), PO Box 257, 37071 Salamanca (Spain); Lopez-Rodas, V. [Genetica, Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Costas, E., E-mail: ecostas@vet.ucm.es [Genetica, Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

2013-11-15

Highlights: •Some microalgae species survive to extreme environments in ponds of residual waters from uranium mining. •Adaptation of microalgae to U arose very fast. •Spontaneous mutations that confer large adaptive value were able to produce the adaptation to residual waters of U mining. •Adaptation to more extreme waters of U mining is only possible after the recombination subsequent to sexual mating. •Resistant microalgae bio-adsorbs uranium to the cell wall and internalises uranium inside the cytoplasm. -- Abstract: Extreme environments may support communities of microalgae living at the limits of their tolerance. It is usually assumed that these extreme environments are inhabited by extremophile species. However, global anthropogenic environmental changes are generating new extreme environments, such as mining-effluent pools of residual waters from uranium mining with high U levels, acidity and radioactivity in Salamanca (Spain). Certain microalgal species have rapidly adapted to these extreme waters (uranium mining in this area began in 1960). Experiments have demonstrated that physiological acclimatisation would be unable to achieve adaptation. In contrast, rapid genetic adaptation was observed in waters ostensibly lethal to microalgae by means of rare spontaneous mutations that occurred prior to the exposure to effluent waters from uranium mining. However, adaptation to the most extreme conditions was only possible after recombination through sexual mating because adaptation requires more than one mutation. Microalgae living in extreme environments could be the descendants of pre-selective mutants that confer significant adaptive value to extreme contamination. These “lucky mutants” could allow for the evolutionary rescue of populations faced with rapid environmental change.

Rapid adaptation of microalgae to bodies of water with extreme pollution from uranium mining: An explanation of how mesophilic organisms can rapidly colonise extremely toxic environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

García-Balboa, C.; Baselga-Cervera, B.; García-Sanchez, A.; Igual, J.M.; Lopez-Rodas, V.; Costas, E.

2013-01-01

Highlights: •Some microalgae species survive to extreme environments in ponds of residual waters from uranium mining. •Adaptation of microalgae to U arose very fast. •Spontaneous mutations that confer large adaptive value were able to produce the adaptation to residual waters of U mining. •Adaptation to more extreme waters of U mining is only possible after the recombination subsequent to sexual mating. •Resistant microalgae bio-adsorbs uranium to the cell wall and internalises uranium inside the cytoplasm. -- Abstract: Extreme environments may support communities of microalgae living at the limits of their tolerance. It is usually assumed that these extreme environments are inhabited by extremophile species. However, global anthropogenic environmental changes are generating new extreme environments, such as mining-effluent pools of residual waters from uranium mining with high U levels, acidity and radioactivity in Salamanca (Spain). Certain microalgal species have rapidly adapted to these extreme waters (uranium mining in this area began in 1960). Experiments have demonstrated that physiological acclimatisation would be unable to achieve adaptation. In contrast, rapid genetic adaptation was observed in waters ostensibly lethal to microalgae by means of rare spontaneous mutations that occurred prior to the exposure to effluent waters from uranium mining. However, adaptation to the most extreme conditions was only possible after recombination through sexual mating because adaptation requires more than one mutation. Microalgae living in extreme environments could be the descendants of pre-selective mutants that confer significant adaptive value to extreme contamination. These “lucky mutants” could allow for the evolutionary rescue of populations faced with rapid environmental change

Extreme wind conditions for a Danish offshore site

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt S.

2000-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of extreme wind speed gust values measured at a shallow water offshore site and at a coastal onshore site in Denmark. An estimate of 50-year extreme values has been evaluated using a new statistical method. In addition a mean gust shape is determined, based on a la...

Dissociating indifferent, directional, and extreme responding in personality data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zettler, Ingo; Lang, Jonas W B; Hülsheger, Ute R

2015-01-01

- and observer reports of personality traits. The three-process model captures indifferent, directional, and extreme responding. Substantively, we hypothesize that, and test whether, trait Honesty-Humility is negatively linked to extreme responding. METHOD: We applied the three-process model to personality data......-process model. Second, we show that the various response processes show a pattern of correlations across traits and rating sources which is in line with the idea that indifferent and extreme responding are person-specific tendencies, whereas directional responding is content-specific. Third, we report findings...... of N = 577 dyads (self- and observer reports of the HEXACO Personality Inventory-Revised) of Dutch and German respondents. RESULTS: First, we provide evidence that indifferent, directional, and extreme responding can be separated from each other in personality data through the use of the three...

Disaster Risks Reduction for Extreme Natural Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Plag, H.; Jules-Plag, S.

2013-12-01

Mega disasters associated with extreme natural hazards have the potential to escalate the global sustainability crisis and put us close to the boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity. Floods and droughts are major threats that potentially could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis frequently cause disasters that eventually could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly since we have built mega cities in hazardous areas that are now ready to be harvested by natural hazards. Unfortunately, the more we learn to cope with the relatively frequent hazards (50 to 100 years events), the less we are worried about the low-probability, high-impact events (a few hundred and more years events). As a consequence, threats from the 500 years flood, drought, volcano eruption are not appropriately accounted for in disaster risk reduction (DRR) discussions. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because exposure of human assets to hazards was much lower in the past. The most extreme events that occurred during the last 2,000 years would today cause unparalleled damage on a global scale and could worsen the sustainability crisis. Simulation of these extreme hazards under present conditions can help to assess the disaster risk. Recent extreme earthquakes have illustrated the destruction they can inflict, both directly and indirectly through tsunamis. Large volcano eruptions have the potential to impact climate, anthropogenic infrastructure and resource supplies on global scale. During the last 2,000 years several large volcano eruptions occurred, which under today's conditions are associated with extreme disaster risk. The comparison of earthquakes and volcano eruptions indicates that large volcano eruptions are the low-probability geohazards with potentially the highest impact on our civilization

: tous les projets | Page 186 | CRDI - Centre de recherches pour le ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Sujet: WATER DISTRIBUTION, Natural Resources, WATER UTILIZATION, WATER SUPPLY, LAND REFORM, DATA COLLECTING, INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH, Capacity building. Région: Chile, South America, North and Central America. Programme: Changements climatiques. Financement total : CA$ 0.00.

Rapid adaptation of microalgae to bodies of water with extreme pollution from uranium mining: an explanation of how mesophilic organisms can rapidly colonise extremely toxic environments.

Science.gov (United States)

García-Balboa, C; Baselga-Cervera, B; García-Sanchez, A; Igual, J M; Lopez-Rodas, V; Costas, E

2013-11-15

Extreme environments may support communities of microalgae living at the limits of their tolerance. It is usually assumed that these extreme environments are inhabited by extremophile species. However, global anthropogenic environmental changes are generating new extreme environments, such as mining-effluent pools of residual waters from uranium mining with high U levels, acidity and radioactivity in Salamanca (Spain). Certain microalgal species have rapidly adapted to these extreme waters (uranium mining in this area began in 1960). Experiments have demonstrated that physiological acclimatisation would be unable to achieve adaptation. In contrast, rapid genetic adaptation was observed in waters ostensibly lethal to microalgae by means of rare spontaneous mutations that occurred prior to the exposure to effluent waters from uranium mining. However, adaptation to the most extreme conditions was only possible after recombination through sexual mating because adaptation requires more than one mutation. Microalgae living in extreme environments could be the descendants of pre-selective mutants that confer significant adaptive value to extreme contamination. These "lucky mutants" could allow for the evolutionary rescue of populations faced with rapid environmental change. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changing precipitation extremes and flood risk over the conterminous U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

On the basis of first principles, precipitation extremes should increase in a warming climate. Effectively, the atmospheric "heat engine" is expected to turn over more rapidly as the climate warms, due to increased water holding capacity of the atmosphere. Most climate models reflect this behavior, and project that precipitation extremes should increase, at roughly the Clausius-Clapyron rate. From a societal standpoint though, changing precipitation extremes in and of themselves aren't necessarily a concern - rather, the question of societal interest is "are and/or will flood extremes change". Flood extremes of course respond to precipitation extremes, but they are affected by a number of other factors, among them being the duration of precipitation relative to catchment size and channel features, storm orientation relative to catchment orientation, soil characteristics, and antecedent hydrologic conditions. Various studies have shown that over both the conterminous U.S. and globally, there have been slight increases in precipitation extremes (i.e., more than would be expected due to chance. On the other hand, evidence for increases in flooding are less pervasive. I review past work in this area, and suggest the nature of studies that might be conducted going forward to better understand the likely signature of changing precipitation extremes on flooding.

Extreme Events and Energy Providers: Science and Innovation

Science.gov (United States)

Yiou, P.; Vautard, R.

2012-04-01

Most socio-economic regulations related to the resilience to climate extremes, from infrastructure or network design to insurance premiums, are based on a present-day climate with an assumption of stationarity. Climate extremes (heat waves, cold spells, droughts, storms and wind stilling) affect in particular energy production, supply, demand and security in several ways. While national, European or international projects have generated vast amounts of climate projections for the 21st century, their practical use in long-term planning remains limited. Estimating probabilistic diagnostics of energy user relevant variables from those multi-model projections will help the energy sector to elaborate medium to long-term plans, and will allow the assessment of climate risks associated to those plans. The project "Extreme Events for Energy Providers" (E3P) aims at filling a gap between climate science and its practical use in the energy sector and creating in turn favourable conditions for new business opportunities. The value chain ranges from addressing research questions directly related to energy-significant climate extremes to providing innovative tools of information and decision making (including methodologies, best practices and software) and climate science training for the energy sector, with a focus on extreme events. Those tools will integrate the scientific knowledge that is developed by scientific communities, and translate it into a usable probabilistic framework. The project will deliver projection tools assessing the probabilities of future energy-relevant climate extremes at a range of spatial scales varying from pan-European to local scales. The E3P project is funded by the Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC Climate). We will present the mechanisms of interactions between academic partners, SMEs and industrial partners for this project. Those mechanisms are elementary bricks of a climate service.

Upper extremity sensorimotor control among collegiate football players.

Science.gov (United States)

Laudner, Kevin G

2012-03-01

Injuries stemming from shoulder instability are very common among athletes participating in contact sports, such as football. Previous research has shown that increased laxity negatively affects the function of the sensorimotor system potentially leading to a pathological cycle of shoulder dysfunction. Currently, there are no data detailing such effects among football players. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the differences in upper extremity sensorimotor control among football players compared with that of a control group. Forty-five collegiate football players and 70 male control subjects with no previous experience in contact sports participated. All the subjects had no recent history of upper extremity injury. Each subject performed three 30-second upper extremity balance trials on each arm. The balance trials were conducted in a single-arm push-up position with the test arm in the center of a force platform and the subjects' feet on a labile device. The trials were averaged, and the differences in radial area deviation between groups were analyzed using separate 1-way analyses of variance (p football players showed significantly more radial area deviation of the dominant (0.41 ± 1.23 cm2, p = 0.02) and nondominant arms (0.47 ± 1.63 cm2, p = 0.03) when compared with the control group. These results suggest that football players may have decreased sensorimotor control of the upper extremity compared with individuals with no contact sport experience. The decreased upper extremity sensorimotor control among the football players may be because of the frequent impacts accumulated during football participation. Football players may benefit from exercises that target the sensorimotor system. These findings may also be beneficial in the evaluation and treatment of various upper extremity injuries among football players.

Response of Simple, Model Systems to Extreme Conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ewing, Rodney C. [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Lang, Maik [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

2015-07-30

The focus of the research was on the application of high-pressure/high-temperature techniques, together with intense energetic ion beams, to the study of the behavior of simple oxide systems (e.g., SiO₂, GeO₂, CeO₂, TiO₂, HfO₂, SnO₂, ZnO and ZrO₂) under extreme conditions. These simple stoichiometries provide unique model systems for the analysis of structural responses to pressure up to and above 1 Mbar, temperatures of up to several thousands of kelvin, and the extreme energy density generated by energetic heavy ions (tens of keV/atom). The investigations included systematic studies of radiation- and pressure-induced amorphization of high P-T polymorphs. By studying the response of simple stoichiometries that have multiple structural “outcomes”, we have established the basic knowledge required for the prediction of the response of more complex structures to extreme conditions. We especially focused on the amorphous state and characterized the different non-crystalline structure-types that result from the interplay of radiation and pressure. For such experiments, we made use of recent technological developments, such as the perforated diamond-anvil cell and in situ investigation using synchrotron x-ray sources. We have been particularly interested in using extreme pressures to alter the electronic structure of a solid prior to irradiation. We expected that the effects of modified band structure would be evident in the track structure and morphology, information which is much needed to describe theoretically the fundamental physics of track-formation. Finally, we investigated the behavior of different simple-oxide, composite nanomaterials (e.g., uncoated nanoparticles vs. core/shell systems) under coupled, extreme conditions. This provided insight into surface and boundary effects on phase stability under extreme conditions.

An influence of extremal edges on boundary extension.

Science.gov (United States)

Hale, Ralph G; Brown, James M; McDunn, Benjamin A; Siddiqui, Aisha P

2015-08-01

Studies have shown that people consistently remember seeing more of a studied scene than was physically present (e.g., Intraub & Richardson Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 15, 179-187, 1989). This scene memory error, known as boundary extension, has been suggested to occur due to an observer's failure to differentiate between the contributing sources of information, including the sensory input, amodal continuation beyond the view boundaries, and contextual associations with the main objects and depicted scene locations (Intraub, 2010). Here, "scenes" made of abstract shapes on random-dot backgrounds, previously shown to elicit boundary extension (McDunn, Siddiqui, & Brown Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 370-375, 2014), were compared with versions made with extremal edges (Palmer & Ghose Psychological Science, 19, 77-84, 2008) added to their borders, in order to examine how boundary extension is influenced when amodal continuation at the borders' view boundaries is manipulated in this way. Extremal edges were expected to reduce boundary extension as compared to the same scenes without them, because extremal edge boundaries explicitly indicate an image's end (i.e., they do not continue past the view boundary). A large and a small difference (16 % and 40 %) between the close and wide-angle views shown during the experiment were tested to examine the effects of both boundary extension and normalization with and without extremal edges. Images without extremal edges elicited typical boundary extension for the 16 % size change condition, whereas the 40 % condition showed signs of normalization. With extremal edges, a reduced amount of boundary extension occurred for the 16 % condition, and only normalization was found for the 40 % condition. Our findings support and highlight the importance of amodal continuation at the view boundaries as a component of boundary extension.

International Conference on Extreme Learning Machines 2014

CERN Document Server

Mao, Kezhi; Cambria, Erik; Man, Zhihong; Toh, Kar-Ann

2015-01-01

This book contains some selected papers from the International Conference on Extreme Learning Machine 2014, which was held in Singapore, December 8-10, 2014. This conference brought together the researchers and practitioners of Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) from a variety of fields to promote research and development of “learning without iterative tuning”.  The book covers theories, algorithms and applications of ELM. It gives the readers a glance of the most recent advances of ELM.  

International Conference on Extreme Learning Machine 2015

CERN Document Server

Mao, Kezhi; Wu, Jonathan; Lendasse, Amaury; ELM 2015; Theory, Algorithms and Applications (I); Theory, Algorithms and Applications (II)

2016-01-01

This book contains some selected papers from the International Conference on Extreme Learning Machine 2015, which was held in Hangzhou, China, December 15-17, 2015. This conference brought together researchers and engineers to share and exchange R&D experience on both theoretical studies and practical applications of the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) technique and brain learning. This book covers theories, algorithms ad applications of ELM. It gives readers a glance of the most recent advances of ELM. .

Extremely Short Optical Pulses and Ads/CFT Compliance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Konobeeva N.N.

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Dynamics of few cycle optical pulses in non-Fermi liquid was considered. Energy spectrum of non-Fermi liquid was taken from the AdS/CFT compliance. Conditions of quasiparticle excitation existence were defined. Non-Fermi liquid parameters impact on the shape of few cycle pulses were estimated. It was shown that extremely short optical pulse propagation in the non-Fermi liquid is a stable pattern. The value of chemical potential has a significant impact on extremely short pulse shape. An increase in initial pulse amplitude does not result in pulse-shape distortions under its propagation in considered medium that is why the non-Fermi liquid can be used in applications inherent in extremely short pulse processing.

Medical and psychosocial implications of adolescent extreme obesity – acceptance and effects of structured care, short: Youth with Extreme Obesity Study (YES)

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Prevalence rates of overweight and obesity have increased in German children and adolescents in the last three decades. Adolescents with extreme obesity represent a distinct risk group. On the basis of data obtained by the German Child and Youth Survey (KiGGS) and the German district military offices we estimate that the group of extremely obese adolescents (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2) currently encompasses approximately 200.000 adolescents aged 14 to 21 yrs. Conventional approaches focusing on weight reduction have largely proven futile for them. In addition, only a small percentage of adolescents with extreme obesity seek actively treatment for obesity while contributing disproportionately strong to health care costs. Because of somatic and psychiatric co-morbidities and social problems adolescents with extreme obesity require special attention within the medical care system. We have initiated the project “Medical and psychosocial implications of adolescents with extreme obesity - acceptance and effects of structured care, short: ‘Youths with Extreme Obesity Study (YES)’”, which aims at improving the medical care and social support structures for youths with extreme obesity in Germany. Methods/Design We focus on identification of these subjects (baseline examination) and their acceptance of diagnostic and subsequent treatment procedures. In a randomized controlled trial (RCT) we will investigate the effectiveness of a low key group intervention not focusing on weight loss but aimed at the provision of obesity related information, alleviation of social isolation, school and vocational integration and improvement of self-esteem in comparison to a control group treated in a conventional way with focus on weight loss. Interested individuals who fulfill current recommended criteria for weight loss surgery will be provided with a structured preparation and follow-up programs. All subjects will be monitored within a long-term observational study to

Time Eigenstates for Potential Functions without Extremal Points

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabino Torres-Vega

2013-09-01

Full Text Available In a previous paper, we introduced a way to generate a time coordinate system for classical and quantum systems when the potential function has extremal points. In this paper, we deal with the case in which the potential function has no extremal points at all, and we illustrate the method with the harmonic and linear potentials.

Ergotamine-induced upper extremity ischemia: a case report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Man Deuk; Lee, Gun [Bundang CHA General Hospital, Pochon (China); Shin, Sung Wook [Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2005-06-15

Ergotamine-induced limb ischemia is an extremely rare case. We present a case of a 64-year-old man, who developed ischemia on the right upper extremity due to long-term use of Ergot for migraine headache. Angiography revealed diffused, smooth, and tapered narrowing of the brachial artery. The patient was successfully treated with intravenous nitroprusside.

Survey of upper extremity injuries among martial arts participants.

Science.gov (United States)

Diesselhorst, Matthew M; Rayan, Ghazi M; Pasque, Charles B; Peyton Holder, R

2013-01-01

To survey participants at various experience levels of different martial arts (MA) about upper extremity injuries sustained during training and fighting. A 21-s question survey was designed and utilised. The survey was divided into four groups (Demographics, Injury Description, Injury Mechanism, and Miscellaneous information) to gain knowledge about upper extremity injuries sustained during martial arts participation. Chi-square testing was utilised to assess for significant associations. Males comprised 81% of respondents. Involvement in multiple forms of MA was the most prevalent (38%). The hand/wrist was the most common area injured (53%), followed by the shoulder/upper arm (27%) and the forearm/elbow (19%). Joint sprains/muscle strains were the most frequent injuries reported overall (47%), followed by abrasions/bruises (26%). Dislocations of the upper extremity were reported by 47% of participants while fractures occurred in 39%. Surgeries were required for 30% of participants. Females were less likely to require surgery and more likely to have shoulder and elbow injuries. Males were more likely to have hand injuries. Participants of Karate and Tae Kwon Do were more likely to have injuries to their hands, while participants of multiple forms were more likely to sustain injuries to their shoulders/upper arms and more likely to develop chronic upper extremity symptoms. With advanced level of training the likelihood of developing chronic upper extremity symptoms increases, and multiple surgeries were required. Hand protection was associated with a lower risk of hand injuries. Martial arts can be associated with substantial upper extremity injuries that may require surgery and extended time away from participation. Injuries may result in chronic upper extremity symptoms. Hand protection is important for reducing injuries to the hand and wrist.

Structural extremes in a cretaceous dinosaur.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul C Sereno

Full Text Available Fossils of the Early Cretaceous dinosaur, Nigersaurus taqueti, document for the first time the cranial anatomy of a rebbachisaurid sauropod. Its extreme adaptations for herbivory at ground-level challenge current hypotheses regarding feeding function and feeding strategy among diplodocoids, the larger clade of sauropods that includes Nigersaurus. We used high resolution computed tomography, stereolithography, and standard molding and casting techniques to reassemble the extremely fragile skull. Computed tomography also allowed us to render the first endocast for a sauropod preserving portions of the olfactory bulbs, cerebrum and inner ear, the latter permitting us to establish habitual head posture. To elucidate evidence of tooth wear and tooth replacement rate, we used photographic-casting techniques and crown thin sections, respectively. To reconstruct its 9-meter postcranial skeleton, we combined and size-adjusted multiple partial skeletons. Finally, we used maximum parsimony algorithms on character data to obtain the best estimate of phylogenetic relationships among diplodocoid sauropods. Nigersaurus taqueti shows extreme adaptations for a dinosaurian herbivore including a skull of extremely light construction, tooth batteries located at the distal end of the jaws, tooth replacement as fast as one per month, an expanded muzzle that faces directly toward the ground, and hollow presacral vertebral centra with more air sac space than bone by volume. A cranial endocast provides the first reasonably complete view of a sauropod brain including its small olfactory bulbs and cerebrum. Skeletal and dental evidence suggests that Nigersaurus was a ground-level herbivore that gathered and sliced relatively soft vegetation, the culmination of a low-browsing feeding strategy first established among diplodocoids during the Jurassic.

Prevalence of lower extremity venous duplication

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simpson William

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: This retrospective study was performed to determine the prevalence of lower extremity venous duplication using duplex ultrasound in the patient population of a large urban medical center. Materials and Methods: The reports of all lower extremity venous ultrasound examinations performed at our institution between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2002 were reviewed. Ultrasound examinations that were performed for purposes other than the detection of lower extremity deep vein thrombosis were excluded. The prevalence of duplication and its specific location were recorded. In addition, the prevalence of thrombus and its specific location were also recorded. Results: A total of 3118 exams were performed in 2664 patients. Of the 2664 patients, 2311 had only one examination performed during the study period; 353 patients had more than one examination performed. We found that 10.1% of patients (270/2664 had at least one venous segment duplicated and 5.4% of patients (143/2664 had a thrombus in at least one venous segment. There was a statistically significant difference in the prevalence of both duplication and thrombus with a change in venous segment. Only 0.4% of patients (11/2664 had thrombus within a duplicated segment. Of those who had more than one examination performed, 15.3% (54/353 had the same venous segment(s seen on one examination but not another. Conclusion: Lower extremity venous duplication is a frequent anatomic variant that is seen in 10.1% of patients, but it may not be as common as is generally believed. It can result in a false negative result for deep vein thrombosis.

Evaluation of satellite-retrieved extreme precipitation using gauge observations

Science.gov (United States)

Lockhoff, M.; Zolina, O.; Simmer, C.; Schulz, J.

2012-04-01

Precipitation extremes have already been intensively studied employing rain gauge datasets. Their main advantage is that they represent a direct measurement with a relatively high temporal coverage. Their main limitation however is their poor spatial coverage and thus a low representativeness in many parts of the world. In contrast, satellites can provide global coverage and there are meanwhile data sets available that are on one hand long enough to be used for extreme value analysis and that have on the other hand the necessary spatial and temporal resolution to capture extremes. However, satellite observations provide only an indirect mean to determine precipitation and there are many potential observational and methodological weaknesses in particular over land surfaces that may constitute doubts concerning their usability for the analysis of precipitation extremes. By comparing basic climatological metrics of precipitation (totals, intensities, number of wet days) as well as respective characteristics of PDFs, absolute and relative extremes of satellite and observational data this paper aims at assessing to which extent satellite products are suitable for analysing extreme precipitation events. In a first step the assessment focuses on Europe taking into consideration various satellite products available, e.g. data sets provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). First results indicate that satellite-based estimates do not only represent the monthly averaged precipitation very similar to rain gauge estimates but they also capture the day-to-day occurrence fairly well. Larger differences can be found though when looking at the corresponding intensities.

: tous les projets | Page 243 | CRDI - Centre de recherches pour le ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Sujet: Climate change, ADAPTATION TO CHANGE, DROUGHT, FLOODS, HYDROLOGY, AGRICULTURAL LAND, CULTIVATED LAND, LAND USE, PLANNING. Région: Argentina, South America, Paraguay, North and Central America. Programme: Changements climatiques. Financement total : CA$ 391,900.00.

Adaptation dans les zones cruciales au regard des changements ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

) vise à accroître la résilience des populations pauvres dans trois « zones cruciales » au regard des changements climatiques : les bassins hydrographiques, les deltas et les régions semi-arides.

Social media as a marketing tool for extreme-sport oriented companies

OpenAIRE

Korosuo, Saku

2013-01-01

Marketing in social media has been studied extensively in recent years, but not specifically for extreme-sport oriented companies. Even though most of the extreme-oriented companies are using social media for marketing, only a few pay special attention to its risks and possibilities. The purpose of this study is to identify extreme-sport oriented companies' practices to use social media as a marketing tool. I interviewed eight extreme- oriented companies and athletes. In addition to interview...

Extremes in random fields a theory and its applications

CERN Document Server

Yakir, Benjamin

2013-01-01

Presents a useful new technique for analyzing the extreme-value behaviour of random fields Modern science typically involves the analysis of increasingly complex data. The extreme values that emerge in the statistical analysis of complex data are often of particular interest. This book focuses on the analytical approximations of the statistical significance of extreme values. Several relatively complex applications of the technique to problems that emerge in practical situations are presented.  All the examples are difficult to analyze using classical methods, and as a result, the author pr

Predicting Malaysian palm oil price using Extreme Value Theory

OpenAIRE

Chuangchid, K; Sriboonchitta, S; Rahman, S; Wiboonpongse, A

2013-01-01

This paper uses the extreme value theory (EVT) to predict extreme price events of Malaysian palm oil in the future, based on monthly futures price data for a 25 year period (mid-1986 to mid-2011). Model diagnostic has confirmed non-normal distribution of palm oil price data, thereby justifying the use of EVT. Two principal approaches to model extreme values – the Block Maxima (BM) and Peak-Over- Threshold (POT) models – were used. Both models revealed that the palm oil price will peak at ...

Time-varying Concurrent Risk of Extreme Droughts and Heatwaves in California

Science.gov (United States)

Sarhadi, A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Ausin, M. C.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena such as droughts and heatwaves. The concurrent of these nature-changing climatic extremes may result in intensifying undesirable consequences in terms of human health and destructive effects in water resources. The present study assesses the risk of concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves under dynamic nonstationary conditions arising from climate change in California. For doing so, a generalized fully Bayesian time-varying multivariate risk framework is proposed evolving through time under dynamic human-induced environment. In this methodology, an extreme, Bayesian, dynamic copula (Gumbel) is developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes. The time-varying extreme marginals are previously modeled using a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference is integrated to estimate parameters of the nonstationary marginals and copula using a Gibbs sampling method. Modelled marginals and copula are then used to develop a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period concept for the estimation of concurrent risk. Here we argue that climate change has increased the chance of concurrent droughts and heatwaves over decades in California. It is also demonstrated that a time-varying multivariate perspective should be incorporated to assess realistic concurrent risk of the extremes for water resources planning and management in a changing climate in this area. The proposed generalized methodology can be applied for other stochastic nature-changing compound climate extremes that are under the influence of climate change.

Test fields cannot destroy extremal black holes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Natário, José; Queimada, Leonel; Vicente, Rodrigo

2016-01-01

We prove that (possibly charged) test fields satisfying the null energy condition at the event horizon cannot overspin/overcharge extremal Kerr–Newman or Kerr–Newman–anti de Sitter black holes, that is, the weak cosmic censorship conjecture cannot be violated in the test field approximation. The argument relies on black hole thermodynamics (without assuming cosmic censorship), and does not depend on the precise nature of the fields. We also discuss generalizations of this result to other extremal black holes. (paper)

Methoden zur Abschätzung extremer Hochwasser

OpenAIRE

Felder, Guido

2016-01-01

Abschätzungen für extreme Hochwasser quantifizieren je nach Definition äusserst seltene Ereignisse (HQ10 000), oder gar das vermutete maximal mögliche Hochwasser (Probable Maximum Flood, PMF). Das Verständnis der in diesem Fall ablaufenden Prozesse ist aufgrund fehlender Referenzereignisse stark eingeschränkt, und für vorgenommene Schätzungen gibt es keine direkten Validierungsmöglichkeiten. Die Abschätzung extremer Hochwasser stellt deshalb eine grosse Herausforderung dar, und die dabei ange...

Regional estimation of extreme suspended sediment concentrations using watershed characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Tramblay, Yves; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; St-Hilaire, André; Poulin, Jimmy

2010-01-01

SummaryThe number of stations monitoring daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) has been decreasing since the 1980s in North America while suspended sediment is considered as a key variable for water quality. The objective of this study is to test the feasibility of regionalising extreme SSC, i.e. estimating SSC extremes values for ungauged basins. Annual maximum SSC for 72 rivers in Canada and USA were modelled with probability distributions in order to estimate quantiles corresponding to different return periods. Regionalisation techniques, originally developed for flood prediction in ungauged basins, were tested using the climatic, topographic, land cover and soils attributes of the watersheds. Two approaches were compared, using either physiographic characteristics or seasonality of extreme SSC to delineate the regions. Multiple regression models to estimate SSC quantiles as a function of watershed characteristics were built in each region, and compared to a global model including all sites. Regional estimates of SSC quantiles were compared with the local values. Results show that regional estimation of extreme SSC is more efficient than a global regression model including all sites. Groups/regions of stations have been identified, using either the watershed characteristics or the seasonality of occurrence for extreme SSC values providing a method to better describe the extreme events of SSC. The most important variables for predicting extreme SSC are the percentage of clay in the soils, precipitation intensity and forest cover.

On causality of extreme events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Massimiliano Zanin

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality within static data sets, by analysing how extreme events in one element correspond to the appearance of extreme events in a second one. The metric is able to detect non-linear causalities; to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets; and to discriminate between real causalities and correlations caused by confounding factors. We validate the metric through synthetic data, dynamical and chaotic systems, and data representing the human brain activity in a cognitive task. We further show how the proposed metric is able to outperform classical causality metrics, provided non-linear relationships are present and large enough data sets are available.

Time-varying extreme value dependence with application to leading European stock markets

KAUST Repository

Castro-Camilo, Daniela; de Carvalho, Miguel; Wadsworth, Jennifer

2018-01-01

Extremal dependence between international stock markets is of particular interest in today’s global financial landscape. However, previous studies have shown this dependence is not necessarily stationary over time. We concern ourselves with modeling extreme value dependence when that dependence is changing over time, or other suitable covariate. Working within a framework of asymptotic dependence, we introduce a regression model for the angular density of a bivariate extreme value distribution that allows us to assess how extremal dependence evolves over a covariate. We apply the proposed model to assess the dynamics governing extremal dependence of some leading European stock markets over the last three decades, and find evidence of an increase in extremal dependence over recent years.

Time-varying extreme value dependence with application to leading European stock markets

KAUST Repository

Castro-Camilo, Daniela

2018-03-09

Extremal dependence between international stock markets is of particular interest in today’s global financial landscape. However, previous studies have shown this dependence is not necessarily stationary over time. We concern ourselves with modeling extreme value dependence when that dependence is changing over time, or other suitable covariate. Working within a framework of asymptotic dependence, we introduce a regression model for the angular density of a bivariate extreme value distribution that allows us to assess how extremal dependence evolves over a covariate. We apply the proposed model to assess the dynamics governing extremal dependence of some leading European stock markets over the last three decades, and find evidence of an increase in extremal dependence over recent years.

Brownian gas models for extreme-value laws

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eliazar, Iddo

2013-01-01

In this paper we establish one-dimensional Brownian gas models for the extreme-value laws of Gumbel, Weibull, and Fréchet. A gas model is a countable collection of independent particles governed by common diffusion dynamics. The extreme-value laws are the universal probability distributions governing the affine scaling limits of the maxima and minima of ensembles of independent and identically distributed one-dimensional random variables. Using the recently introduced concept of stationary Poissonian intensities, we construct two gas models whose global statistical structures are stationary, and yield the extreme-value laws: a linear Brownian motion gas model for the Gumbel law, and a geometric Brownian motion gas model for the Weibull and Fréchet laws. The stochastic dynamics of these gas models are studied in detail, and closed-form analytical descriptions of their temporal correlation structures, their topological phase transitions, and their intrinsic first-passage-time fluxes are presented. (paper)

Pushing the Envelope of Extreme Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Pesnell, W. D.

2014-12-01

Extreme Space Weather events are large solar flares or geomagnetic storms, which can cost billions of dollars to recover from. We have few examples of such events; the Carrington Event (the solar superstorm) is one of the few that had superlatives in three categories: size of solar flare, drop in Dst, and amplitude of aa. Kepler observations show that stars similar to the Sun can have flares releasing millions of times more energy than an X-class flare. These flares and the accompanying coronal mass ejections could strongly affect the atmosphere surrounding a planet. What level of solar activity would be necessary to strongly affect the atmosphere of the Earth? Can we map out the envelope of space weather along the evolution of the Sun? What would space weather look like if the Sun stopped producing a magnetic field? To what extreme should Space Weather go? These are the extremes of Space Weather explored in this talk.

Extreme eigenvalues of sample covariance and correlation matrices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heiny, Johannes

This thesis is concerned with asymptotic properties of the eigenvalues of high-dimensional sample covariance and correlation matrices under an infinite fourth moment of the entries. In the first part, we study the joint distributional convergence of the largest eigenvalues of the sample covariance...... matrix of a p-dimensional heavy-tailed time series when p converges to infinity together with the sample size n. We generalize the growth rates of p existing in the literature. Assuming a regular variation condition with tail index ... eigenvalues are essentially determined by the extreme order statistics from an array of iid random variables. The asymptotic behavior of the extreme eigenvalues is then derived routinely from classical extreme value theory. The resulting approximations are strikingly simple considering the high dimension...

: tous les projets | Page 451 | CRDI - Centre de recherches pour le ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Sujet: CLIMATE CHANGE, ADAPTATION TO CHANGE, NATURAL DISASTERS, DISASTER PREPAREDNESS, DISASTER MANAGEMENT. Région: Kenya, Malawi, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South of Sahara. Programme: Changements climatiques. Financement total : CA$ 1,398,500.00.

Ultrasonography of the lower extremity veins: Anatomy and basic approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Dong Kyu; Ahn, Kyung Sik; Kang, Chang Ho; Cho, Sung Bum [Dept. of Radiology, Korea University Anam Hospital, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2017-04-15

Ultrasonography is an imaging modality widely used to evaluate venous diseases of the lower extremities. It is important to understand the normal venous anatomy of the lower extremities, which has deep, superficial, and perforating venous components, in order to determine the pathophysiology of venous disease. This review provides a basic description of the anatomy of the lower extremity veins and useful techniques for approaching each vein via ultrasonography.

Ultrasonography of the lower extremity veins: Anatomy and basic approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Dong Kyu; Ahn, Kyung Sik; Kang, Chang Ho; Cho, Sung Bum

2017-01-01

Ultrasonography is an imaging modality widely used to evaluate venous diseases of the lower extremities. It is important to understand the normal venous anatomy of the lower extremities, which has deep, superficial, and perforating venous components, in order to determine the pathophysiology of venous disease. This review provides a basic description of the anatomy of the lower extremity veins and useful techniques for approaching each vein via ultrasonography

Trends in utilization: has extremity MR imaging replaced diagnostic arthroscopy?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glynn, Nicole; Morrison, William B.; Parker, Laurence; Schweitzer, Mark E.; Carrino, John A.

2004-01-01

To examine the relative change in utilization of magnetic resonance (MR) imaging of the extremities versus diagnostic and therapeutic arthroscopy. Using the 1993, 1996, and 1999 nationwide Medicare Part B databases, utilization rates (per 100,000) were determined for upper and lower extremity MR imaging, diagnostic arthroscopy and therapeutic arthroscopy using CPT-4 codes. Utilization of extremity MR imaging was compared with that of diagnostic and therapeutic arthroscopy in 10 geographic regions of the United States and tracked over time. Combined lower and upper extremity MR imaging utilization per 100,000 increased from 393 to 1,056 in 1999 (+168.7%). Utilization of diagnostic arthroscopy of the extremities decreased from 18 in 1993 to 8 in 1999 (-55.6%); therapeutic arthroscopy rates increased from 461 in 1993 to 636 in 1999 (+40.0%). Specifically, from 1993 to 1999, utilization of lower extremity MR imaging increased from 270 to 661 (+144.8%). Utilization of diagnostic arthroscopy of the knee over the same time period decreased from 11 to 5 (-54.5%); therapeutic arthroscopy increased from 394 to 501 (+27.2%). Similarly, utilization rates for upper extremity MR imaging increased from 123 to 395 (+221.1%). Utilization of diagnostic arthroscopy of the shoulder over the same time period decreased from 7 to 2 (-71.4%); therapeutic arthroscopy increased from 44 to 104 (+136.4%). No specific geographic trends were ascertained. The utilization of MR imaging of the extremities has markedly increased from 1993 to 1999. During the same time period the utilization of diagnostic arthroscopy has decreased and that of therapeutic arthroscopy has increased. These findings support the hypothesis that there is increased reliance of clinical practitioners on the diagnostic information provided by MR imaging in preoperative clinical decision-making. (orig.)

International Spinal Cord Injury Upper Extremity Basic Data Set

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Biering-Sørensen, F; Bryden, A; Curt, A

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To develop an International Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) Upper Extremity Basic Data Set as part of the International SCI Data Sets, which facilitates consistent collection and reporting of basic upper extremity findings in the SCI population. SETTING: International. METHODS: A first draft...

Racial Extremism in the Army

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Hudson, Walter M

1998-01-01

... modem phenomenon of "skinheads." I then discuss the history of white supremacist extremism in the Army, culminating in the December, 1995 murders of two black civilians by soldiers assigned to the 82d Airborne Division at Fort Bragg, North Carolina...

Climate change and extreme events in weather

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RameshKumar, M.R.

reported that the climate based extreme weather event is increasing throughout the world. One of the major chal- lenges before the scientists is to determine whether the ob- served change in extreme weather events exceeds the vari- ability expected through... was recorded in July 1943 on the hills of Mewar and Merwara. Unprecedent flood in Ajmer and Merwara devasted 50 villages and took a toll of 5000 lives (De et al., 2005). Severe Floods occurred to Godavari and Tungabhadra rivers in the last week of August...

Regional tendencies of extreme wind characteristics in Hungary

Science.gov (United States)

Radics, Dr.; Bartholy, Dr.; Péliné

2009-09-01

Human activities have substantial effects on climate system. It has already accepted that change in the long-term climatic mean state will have significant consequences in the global economy and society, but the most important effects of climate change may come from changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes. It is therefore of great interest to document the extremes of surface wind that could assist in estimating the regional effects of climate change. The research presented is based on 34-year-long (1975-2008) wind (speed, direction, and wind gust) data sets of 36 Hungarian synoptic meteorological stations. After processing (including digitalisation of old instrumental records, quality control and homogenisation of wind time series) the measured wind data sets, time series and complex wind climate analysis were carried out. Spatial and temporal distributions of mean and extreme wind climate characteristics were estimated, wind extremes and trends were interpolated and mapped over the country. Finally, measured and reanalysed (ERA40) wind data were compared over Hungary, in order to verify not only the validity of ERA40 reanalysed data sets, but the adaptability of climate simulation results in estimation of regional climate change effects.

Extreme Space Weather Events: From Cradle to Grave

Science.gov (United States)

Riley, Pete; Baker, Dan; Liu, Ying D.; Verronen, Pekka; Singer, Howard; Güdel, Manuel

2018-02-01

Extreme space weather events, while rare, can have a substantial impact on our technologically-dependent society. And, although such events have only occasionally been observed, through careful analysis of a wealth of space-based and ground-based observations, historical records, and extrapolations from more moderate events, we have developed a basic picture of the components required to produce them. Several key issues, however, remain unresolved. For example, what limits are imposed on the maximum size of such events? What are the likely societal consequences of a so-called "100-year" solar storm? In this review, we summarize our current scientific understanding about extreme space weather events as we follow several examples from the Sun, through the solar corona and inner heliosphere, across the magnetospheric boundary, into the ionosphere and atmosphere, into the Earth's lithosphere, and, finally, its impact on man-made structures and activities, such as spacecraft, GPS signals, radio communication, and the electric power grid. We describe preliminary attempts to provide probabilistic forecasts of extreme space weather phenomena, and we conclude by identifying several key areas that must be addressed if we are better able to understand, and, ultimately, predict extreme space weather events.

Polygenic determinants in extremes of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol[S

Science.gov (United States)

Dron, Jacqueline S.; Wang, Jian; Low-Kam, Cécile; Khetarpal, Sumeet A.; Robinson, John F.; McIntyre, Adam D.; Ban, Matthew R.; Cao, Henian; Rhainds, David; Dubé, Marie-Pierre; Rader, Daniel J.; Lettre, Guillaume; Tardif, Jean-Claude

2017-01-01

HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) remains a superior biochemical predictor of CVD risk, but its genetic basis is incompletely defined. In patients with extreme HDL-C concentrations, we concurrently evaluated the contributions of multiple large- and small-effect genetic variants. In a discovery cohort of 255 unrelated lipid clinic patients with extreme HDL-C levels, we used a targeted next-generation sequencing panel to evaluate rare variants in known HDL metabolism genes, simultaneously with common variants bundled into a polygenic trait score. Two additional cohorts were used for validation and included 1,746 individuals from the Montréal Heart Institute Biobank and 1,048 individuals from the University of Pennsylvania. Findings were consistent between cohorts: we found rare heterozygous large-effect variants in 18.7% and 10.9% of low- and high-HDL-C patients, respectively. We also found common variant accumulation, indicated by extreme polygenic trait scores, in an additional 12.8% and 19.3% of overall cases of low- and high-HDL-C extremes, respectively. Thus, the genetic basis of extreme HDL-C concentrations encountered clinically is frequently polygenic, with contributions from both rare large-effect and common small-effect variants. Multiple types of genetic variants should be considered as contributing factors in patients with extreme dyslipidemia. PMID:28870971

Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sillmann, Jana; Donat, Markus G; Fyfe, John C; Zwiers, Francis W

2014-01-01

The discrepancy between recent observed and simulated trends in global mean surface temperature has provoked a debate about possible causes and implications for future climate change projections. However, little has been said in this discussion about observed and simulated trends in global temperature extremes. Here we assess trend patterns in temperature extremes and evaluate the consistency between observed and simulated temperature extremes over the past four decades (1971–2010) in comparison to the recent 15 years (1996–2010). We consider the coldest night and warmest day in a year in the observational dataset HadEX2 and in the current generation of global climate models (CMIP5). In general, the observed trends fall within the simulated range of trends, with better consistency for the longer period. Spatial trend patterns differ for the warm and cold extremes, with the warm extremes showing continuous positive trends across the globe and the cold extremes exhibiting a coherent cooling pattern across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes that has emerged in the recent 15 years and is not reproduced by the models. This regional inconsistency between models and observations might be a key to understanding the recent hiatus in global mean temperature warming. (letters)

Extreme value theory and statistics for heavy tail data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S. Caserta; C.G. de Vries (Casper)

2003-01-01

textabstractA scientific way of looking beyond the worst-case return is to employ statistical extreme value methods. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) shows that the probability on very large losses is eventually governed by a simple function, regardless the specific distribution that underlies the return

High resolution spectroscopy of six new extreme helium stars

Science.gov (United States)

Heber, U.; Jones, G.; Drilling, J. S.

1986-01-01

High resolution spectra of six newly discovered extreme helium stars are presented. LSS 5121 is shown to be a spectroscopical twin of the hot extreme helium star HD 160641. A preliminary LTE analysis of LSS 3184 yielded an effective temperature of 22,000 K and a surface gravity of log g = 3.2. Four stars form a new subgroup, classified by sharp-lined He I spectra and pronounced O II spectra, and it is conjectured that these lie close to the Eddington limit. The whole group of extreme helium stars apparently is inhomogeneous with respect to luminosity to mass ratio and chemical composition.

Evaluation of extreme temperature events in northern Spain based on process control charts

Science.gov (United States)

Villeta, M.; Valencia, J. L.; Saá, A.; Tarquis, A. M.

2018-02-01

Extreme climate events have recently attracted the attention of a growing number of researchers because these events impose a large cost on agriculture and associated insurance planning. This study focuses on extreme temperature events and proposes a new method for their evaluation based on statistical process control tools, which are unusual in climate studies. A series of minimum and maximum daily temperatures for 12 geographical areas of a Spanish region between 1931 and 2009 were evaluated by applying statistical process control charts to statistically test whether evidence existed for an increase or a decrease of extreme temperature events. Specification limits were determined for each geographical area and used to define four types of extreme anomalies: lower and upper extremes for the minimum and maximum anomalies. A new binomial Markov extended process that considers the autocorrelation between extreme temperature events was generated for each geographical area and extreme anomaly type to establish the attribute control charts for the annual fraction of extreme days and to monitor the occurrence of annual extreme days. This method was used to assess the significance of changes and trends of extreme temperature events in the analysed region. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of an attribute control chart for evaluating extreme temperature events. For example, the evaluation of extreme maximum temperature events using the proposed statistical process control charts was consistent with the evidence of an increase in maximum temperatures during the last decades of the last century.

Impacts of Extreme Events on Human Health. Chapter 4

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Jesse E.; Herring, Stephanie C.; Jantarasami, Lesley; Adrianopoli, Carl; Benedict, Kaitlin; Conlon, Kathryn; Escobar, Vanessa; Hess, Jeremy; Luvall, Jeffrey; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez;

Public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather events

Science.gov (United States)

Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Morgan, G.; Taylor, A.; Wong-Parodi, G.

2013-12-01

Climate experts face a serious communication challenge. Public debate about climate change continues, even though at the same time people seem to complain about extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. As compared to the abstract concept of ';climate change,' (changes in) extreme weather events are indeed easier to perceive, more vivid, and personally relevant. Public perception research in different countries has suggested that people commonly expect that climate change will lead to increases in temperature, and that unseasonably warm weather is likely to be interpreted as evidence of climate change. However, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be driven by changes in other types of extreme weather events, such as exceptional amounts of precipitation or flooding. We therefore examined how perceptions of and personal experiences with changes in these specific weather events are related to public concerns about climate change. In this presentation, we will discuss findings from two large public perception surveys conducted in flood-prone Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (US) and with a national sample in the UK, where extreme flooding has recently occurred across the country. Participants completed questions about their perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events, and their beliefs about climate change. We then conducted linear regressions to predict individual differences in climate-change beliefs, using perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events as predictors, while controlling for demographic characteristics. The US study found that people (a) perceive flood chances to be increasing over the decades, (b) believe climate change to play a role in increases in future flood chances, and (c) would interpret future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change. The UK study found that (a) UK residents are more likely to perceive increases in ';wet' events such

Reconstruction of the Lower Extremity Using Free Flaps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Min Jo Kang

2013-09-01

Full Text Available BackgroundThe aim of lower-extremity reconstruction has focused on wound coverage and functional recovery. However, there are limitations in the use of a local flap in cases of extensive defects of the lower-extremities. Therefore, free flap is a useful option in lower-extremity reconstruction.MethodsWe performed a retrospective review of 49 patients (52 cases who underwent lower-extremity reconstruction at our institution during a 10-year period. In these patients, we evaluated causes and sites of defects, types of flaps, recipient vessels, types of anastomosis, survival rate, and complications.ResultsThere were 42 men and 10 women with a mean age of 32.7 years (range, 3-72 years. The sites of defects included the dorsum of the foot (19, pretibial area (17, ankle (7, heel (5 and other sites (4. The types of free flap included latissimus dorsi muscle flap (10, scapular fascial flap (6, anterolateral thigh flap (6, and other flaps (30. There were four cases of vascular complications, out of which two flaps survived after intervention. The overall survival of the flaps was 96.2% (50/52. There were 19 cases of other complications at recipient sites such as partial graft loss (8, partial flap necrosis (6 and infection (5. However, these complications were not notable and were resolved with skin grafts.ConclusionsThe free flap is an effective method of lower-extremity reconstruction. Good outcomes can be achieved with complete debridement and the selection of appropriate recipient vessels and flaps according to the recipient site.

Return levels of temperature extremes in southern Pakistan

Science.gov (United States)

Zahid, Maida; Blender, Richard; Lucarini, Valerio; Caterina Bramati, Maria

2017-12-01

Southern Pakistan (Sindh) is one of the hottest regions in the world and is highly vulnerable to temperature extremes. In order to improve rural and urban planning, it is useful to gather information about the recurrence of temperature extremes. In this work, return levels of the daily maximum temperature Tmax are estimated, as well as the daily maximum wet-bulb temperature TWmax extremes. We adopt the peaks over threshold (POT) method, which has not yet been used for similar studies in this region. Two main datasets are analyzed: temperatures observed at nine meteorological stations in southern Pakistan from 1980 to 2013, and the ERA-Interim (ECMWF reanalysis) data for the nearest corresponding locations. The analysis provides the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year return levels (RLs) of temperature extremes. The 90 % quantile is found to be a suitable threshold for all stations. We find that the RLs of the observed Tmax are above 50 °C at northern stations and above 45 °C at the southern stations. The RLs of the observed TWmax exceed 35 °C in the region, which is considered as a limit of survivability. The RLs estimated from the ERA-Interim data are lower by 3 to 5 °C than the RLs assessed for the nine meteorological stations. A simple bias correction applied to ERA-Interim data improves the RLs remarkably, yet discrepancies are still present. The results have potential implications for the risk assessment of extreme temperatures in Sindh.