Sensitivity analysis of EQ3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horwedel, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.; Maerker, R.E.

1990-01-01

A sensitivity analysis of EQ3, a computer code which has been proposed to be used as one link in the overall performance assessment of a national high-level waste repository, has been performed. EQ3 is a geochemical modeling code used to calculate the speciation of a water and its saturation state with respect to mineral phases. The model chosen for the sensitivity analysis is one which is used as a test problem in the documentation of the EQ3 code. Sensitivities are calculated using both the CHAIN and ADGEN options of the GRESS code compiled under G-float FORTRAN on the VAX/VMS and verified by perturbation runs. The analyses were performed with a preliminary Version 1.0 of GRESS which contains several new algorithms that significantly improve the application of ADGEN. Use of ADGEN automates the implementation of the well-known adjoint technique for the efficient calculation of sensitivities of a given response to all the input data. Application of ADGEN to EQ3 results in the calculation of sensitivities of a particular response to 31,000 input parameters in a run time of only 27 times that of the original model. Moreover, calculation of the sensitivities for each additional response increases this factor by only 2.5 percent. This compares very favorably with a running-time factor of 31,000 if direct perturbation runs were used instead. 6 refs., 8 tabs

The role of sensitivity analysis in probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirschberg, S.; Knochenhauer, M.

1987-01-01

The paper describes several items suitable for close examination by means of application of sensitivity analysis, when performing a level 1 PSA. Sensitivity analyses are performed with respect to; (1) boundary conditions, (2) operator actions, and (3) treatment of common cause failures (CCFs). The items of main interest are identified continuously in the course of performing a PSA, as well as by scrutinising the final results. The practical aspects of sensitivity analysis are illustrated by several applications from a recent PSA study (ASEA-ATOM BWR 75). It is concluded that sensitivity analysis leads to insights important for analysts, reviewers and decision makers. (orig./HP)

A hybrid approach for global sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, Souvik; Chowdhury, Rajib

2017-01-01

Distribution based sensitivity analysis (DSA) computes sensitivity of the input random variables with respect to the change in distribution of output response. Although DSA is widely appreciated as the best tool for sensitivity analysis, the computational issue associated with this method prohibits its use for complex structures involving costly finite element analysis. For addressing this issue, this paper presents a method that couples polynomial correlated function expansion (PCFE) with DSA. PCFE is a fully equivalent operational model which integrates the concepts of analysis of variance decomposition, extended bases and homotopy algorithm. By integrating PCFE into DSA, it is possible to considerably alleviate the computational burden. Three examples are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach for sensitivity analysis. For all the problems, proposed approach yields excellent results with significantly reduced computational effort. The results obtained, to some extent, indicate that proposed approach can be utilized for sensitivity analysis of large scale structures. - Highlights: • A hybrid approach for global sensitivity analysis is proposed. • Proposed approach integrates PCFE within distribution based sensitivity analysis. • Proposed approach is highly efficient.

Sensitivity analysis of a PWR pressurizer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bruel, Renata Nunes

1997-01-01

A sensitivity analysis relative to the parameters and modelling of the physical process in a PWR pressurizer has been performed. The sensitivity analysis was developed by implementing the key parameters and theoretical model lings which generated a comprehensive matrix of influences of each changes analysed. The major influences that have been observed were the flashing phenomenon and the steam condensation on the spray drops. The present analysis is also applicable to the several theoretical and experimental areas. (author)

Sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003741.htm Sensitivity analysis To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Sensitivity analysis determines the effectiveness of antibiotics against microorganisms (germs) ...

Sensitivity analysis of Takagi-Sugeno-Kang rainfall-runoff fuzzy models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. P. Jacquin

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the sensitivity analysis of the model parameters of the Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy rainfall-runoff models previously developed by the authors. These models are classified in two types of fuzzy models, where the first type is intended to account for the effect of changes in catchment wetness and the second type incorporates seasonality as a source of non-linearity. The sensitivity analysis is performed using two global sensitivity analysis methods, namely Regional Sensitivity Analysis and Sobol's variance decomposition. The data of six catchments from different geographical locations and sizes are used in the sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity of the model parameters is analysed in terms of several measures of goodness of fit, assessing the model performance from different points of view. These measures include the Nash-Sutcliffe criteria, volumetric errors and peak errors. The results show that the sensitivity of the model parameters depends on both the catchment type and the measure used to assess the model performance.

Implementation of a methodology to perform the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the control rod drop in a BWR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reyes F, M. del C.

2015-07-01

A methodology to perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the cross sections used in a Trace/PARCS coupled model for a control rod drop transient of a BWR-5 reactor was implemented with the neutronics code PARCS. A model of the nuclear reactor detailing all assemblies located in the core was developed. However, the thermohydraulic model designed in Trace was a simple model, where one channel representing all the types of assemblies located in the core, it was located inside a simple vessel model and boundary conditions were established. The thermohydraulic model was coupled with the neutronics model, first for the steady state and then a Control Rod Drop (CRD) transient was performed, in order to carry out the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. To perform the analysis of the cross sections used in the Trace/PARCS coupled model during the transient, Probability Density Functions (PDFs) were generated for the 22 parameters cross sections selected from the neutronics parameters that PARCS requires, thus obtaining 100 different cases for the Trace/PARCS coupled model, each with a database of different cross sections. All these cases were executed with the coupled model, therefore obtaining 100 different outputs for the CRD transient with special emphasis on 4 responses per output: 1) The reactivity, 2) the percentage of rated power, 3) the average fuel temperature and 4) the average coolant density. For each response during the transient an uncertainty analysis was performed in which the corresponding uncertainty bands were generated. With this analysis it is possible to observe the results ranges of the responses chose by varying the uncertainty parameters selected. This is very useful and important for maintaining the safety in the nuclear power plants, also to verify if the uncertainty band is within of safety margins. The sensitivity analysis complements the uncertainty analysis identifying the parameter or parameters with the most influence on the

Implementation of a methodology to perform the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the control rod drop in a BWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reyes F, M. del C.

2015-01-01

A methodology to perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the cross sections used in a Trace/PARCS coupled model for a control rod drop transient of a BWR-5 reactor was implemented with the neutronics code PARCS. A model of the nuclear reactor detailing all assemblies located in the core was developed. However, the thermohydraulic model designed in Trace was a simple model, where one channel representing all the types of assemblies located in the core, it was located inside a simple vessel model and boundary conditions were established. The thermohydraulic model was coupled with the neutronics model, first for the steady state and then a Control Rod Drop (CRD) transient was performed, in order to carry out the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. To perform the analysis of the cross sections used in the Trace/PARCS coupled model during the transient, Probability Density Functions (PDFs) were generated for the 22 parameters cross sections selected from the neutronics parameters that PARCS requires, thus obtaining 100 different cases for the Trace/PARCS coupled model, each with a database of different cross sections. All these cases were executed with the coupled model, therefore obtaining 100 different outputs for the CRD transient with special emphasis on 4 responses per output: 1) The reactivity, 2) the percentage of rated power, 3) the average fuel temperature and 4) the average coolant density. For each response during the transient an uncertainty analysis was performed in which the corresponding uncertainty bands were generated. With this analysis it is possible to observe the results ranges of the responses chose by varying the uncertainty parameters selected. This is very useful and important for maintaining the safety in the nuclear power plants, also to verify if the uncertainty band is within of safety margins. The sensitivity analysis complements the uncertainty analysis identifying the parameter or parameters with the most influence on the

Maternal sensitivity: a concept analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, Hyunjeong; Park, Young-Joo; Ryu, Hosihn; Seomun, Gyeong-Ae

2008-11-01

The aim of this paper is to report a concept analysis of maternal sensitivity. Maternal sensitivity is a broad concept encompassing a variety of interrelated affective and behavioural caregiving attributes. It is used interchangeably with the terms maternal responsiveness or maternal competency, with no consistency of use. There is a need to clarify the concept of maternal sensitivity for research and practice. A search was performed on the CINAHL and Ovid MEDLINE databases using 'maternal sensitivity', 'maternal responsiveness' and 'sensitive mothering' as key words. The searches yielded 54 records for the years 1981-2007. Rodgers' method of evolutionary concept analysis was used to analyse the material. Four critical attributes of maternal sensitivity were identified: (a) dynamic process involving maternal abilities; (b) reciprocal give-and-take with the infant; (c) contingency on the infant's behaviour and (d) quality of maternal behaviours. Maternal identity and infant's needs and cues are antecedents for these attributes. The consequences are infant's comfort, mother-infant attachment and infant development. In addition, three positive affecting factors (social support, maternal-foetal attachment and high self-esteem) and three negative affecting factors (maternal depression, maternal stress and maternal anxiety) were identified. A clear understanding of the concept of maternal sensitivity could be useful for developing ways to enhance maternal sensitivity and to maximize the developmental potential of infants. Knowledge of the attributes of maternal sensitivity identified in this concept analysis may be helpful for constructing measuring items or dimensions.

Sensitivity analysis for large-scale problems

Science.gov (United States)

Noor, Ahmed K.; Whitworth, Sandra L.

1987-01-01

The development of efficient techniques for calculating sensitivity derivatives is studied. The objective is to present a computational procedure for calculating sensitivity derivatives as part of performing structural reanalysis for large-scale problems. The scope is limited to framed type structures. Both linear static analysis and free-vibration eigenvalue problems are considered.

Sensitivity Analysis of a Simplified Fire Dynamic Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt; Nielsen, Anker

2015-01-01

This paper discusses a method for performing a sensitivity analysis of parameters used in a simplified fire model for temperature estimates in the upper smoke layer during a fire. The results from the sensitivity analysis can be used when individual parameters affecting fire safety are assessed...

Scenario sensitivity analyses performed on the PRESTO-EPA LLW risk assessment models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bandrowski, M.S.

1988-01-01

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently developing standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste. As part of the standard development, EPA has performed risk assessments using the PRESTO-EPA codes. A program of sensitivity analysis was conducted on the PRESTO-EPA codes, consisting of single parameter sensitivity analysis and scenario sensitivity analysis. The results of the single parameter sensitivity analysis were discussed at the 1987 DOE LLW Management Conference. Specific scenario sensitivity analyses have been completed and evaluated. Scenario assumptions that were analyzed include: site location, disposal method, form of waste, waste volume, analysis time horizon, critical radionuclides, use of buffer zones, and global health effects

Sensitivity analysis of the RESRAD, a dose assessment code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, C.; Cheng, J.J.; Zielen, A.J.

1991-01-01

The RESRAD code is a pathway analysis code that is designed to calculate radiation doses and derive soil cleanup criteria for the US Department of Energy's environmental restoration and waste management program. the RESRAD code uses various pathway and consumption-rate parameters such as soil properties and food ingestion rates in performing such calculations and derivations. As with any predictive model, the accuracy of the predictions depends on the accuracy of the input parameters. This paper summarizes the results of a sensitivity analysis of RESRAD input parameters. Three methods were used to perform the sensitivity analysis: (1) Gradient Enhanced Software System (GRESS) sensitivity analysis software package developed at oak Ridge National Laboratory; (2) direct perturbation of input parameters; and (3) built-in graphic package that shows parameter sensitivities while the RESRAD code is operational

LBLOCA sensitivity analysis using meta models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villamizar, M.; Sanchez-Saez, F.; Villanueva, J.F.; Carlos, S.; Sanchez, A.I.; Martorell, S.

2014-01-01

This paper presents an approach to perform the sensitivity analysis of the results of simulation of thermal hydraulic codes within a BEPU approach. Sensitivity analysis is based on the computation of Sobol' indices that makes use of a meta model, It presents also an application to a Large-Break Loss of Coolant Accident, LBLOCA, in the cold leg of a pressurized water reactor, PWR, addressing the results of the BEMUSE program and using the thermal-hydraulic code TRACE. (authors)

Application of adjoint sensitivity analysis to nuclear reactor fuel rod performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilderman, S.J.; Was, G.S.

1984-01-01

Adjoint sensitivity analysis in nuclear fuel behavior modeling is extended to operate on the entire power history for both Zircaloy and stainless steel cladding via the computer codes FCODE-ALPHA/SS and SCODE/SS. The sensitivities of key variables to input parameters are found to be highly non-intuitive and strongly dependent on the fuel-clad gap status and the history of the fuel during the cycle. The sensitivities of five key variables, clad circumferential stress and strain, fission gas release, fuel centerline temperature and fuel-clad gap, to eleven input parameters are studied. The most important input parameters (yielding significances between 1 and 100) are fabricated clad inner and outer radii and fuel radius. The least important significances (less than 0.01) are the time since reactor start-up and fuel-burnup densification rate. Intermediate to these are fabricated fuel porosity, linear heat generation rate, the power history scale factor, clad outer temperature, fill gas pressure and coolant pressure. Stainless steel and Zircaloy have similar sensitivities at start-up but these diverges a burnup proceeds due to the effect of the higher creep rate of Zircaloy which causes the system to be more responsive to changes in input parameters. The value of adjoint sensitivity analysis lies in its capability of uncovering dependencies of fuel variables on input parameters that cannot be determined by a sequential thought process. (orig.)

Performances of non-parametric statistics in sensitivity analysis and parameter ranking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saltelli, A.

1987-01-01

Twelve parametric and non-parametric sensitivity analysis techniques are compared in the case of non-linear model responses. The test models used are taken from the long-term risk analysis for the disposal of high level radioactive waste in a geological formation. They describe the transport of radionuclides through a set of engineered and natural barriers from the repository to the biosphere and to man. The output data from these models are the dose rates affecting the maximum exposed individual of a critical group at a given point in time. All the techniques are applied to the output from the same Monte Carlo simulations, where a modified version of Latin Hypercube method is used for the sample selection. Hypothesis testing is systematically applied to quantify the degree of confidence in the results given by the various sensitivity estimators. The estimators are ranked according to their robustness and stability, on the basis of two test cases. The conclusions are that no estimator can be considered the best from all points of view and recommend the use of more than just one estimator in sensitivity analysis

Comparison of global sensitivity analysis methods – Application to fuel behavior modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ikonen, Timo, E-mail: timo.ikonen@vtt.fi

2016-02-15

Highlights: • Several global sensitivity analysis methods are compared. • The methods’ applicability to nuclear fuel performance simulations is assessed. • The implications of large input uncertainties and complex models are discussed. • Alternative strategies to perform sensitivity analyses are proposed. - Abstract: Fuel performance codes have two characteristics that make their sensitivity analysis challenging: large uncertainties in input parameters and complex, non-linear and non-additive structure of the models. The complex structure of the code leads to interactions between inputs that show as cross terms in the sensitivity analysis. Due to the large uncertainties of the inputs these interactions are significant, sometimes even dominating the sensitivity analysis. For the same reason, standard linearization techniques do not usually perform well in the analysis of fuel performance codes. More sophisticated methods are typically needed in the analysis. To this end, we compare the performance of several sensitivity analysis methods in the analysis of a steady state FRAPCON simulation. The comparison of importance rankings obtained with the various methods shows that even the simplest methods can be sufficient for the analysis of fuel maximum temperature. However, the analysis of the gap conductance requires more powerful methods that take into account the interactions of the inputs. In some cases, moment-independent methods are needed. We also investigate the computational cost of the various methods and present recommendations as to which methods to use in the analysis.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Results Obtained in the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bean, J.E.; Berglund, J.W.; Davis, F.J.; Economy, K.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; MacKinnon, R.J.; Miller, J.; O'Brien, D.G.; Ramsey, J.L.; Schreiber, J.D.; Shinta, A.; Smith, L.N.; Stockman, C.; Stoelzel, D.M.; Vaughn, P.

1998-01-01

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WPP) is located in southeastern New Mexico and is being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. A detailed performance assessment (PA) for the WIPP was carried out in 1996 and supports an application by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the certification of the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste. The 1996 WIPP PA uses a computational structure that maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the many possible disruptions that could occur over the 10,000 yr regulatory period that applies to the WIPP and subjective uncertainty arising from the imprecision with which many of the quantities required in the PA are known. Important parts of this structure are (1) the use of Latin hypercube sampling to incorporate the effects of subjective uncertainty, (2) the use of Monte Carlo (i.e., random) sampling to incorporate the effects of stochastic uncertainty, and (3) the efficient use of the necessarily limited number of mechanistic calculations that can be performed to support the analysis. The use of Latin hypercube sampling generates a mapping from imprecisely known analysis inputs to analysis outcomes of interest that provides both a display of the uncertainty in analysis outcomes (i.e., uncertainty analysis) and a basis for investigating the effects of individual inputs on these outcomes (i.e., sensitivity analysis). The sensitivity analysis procedures used in the PA include examination of scatterplots, stepwise regression analysis, and partial correlation analysis. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained as part of the 1996 WIPP PA are presented and discussed. Specific topics considered include two phase flow in the vicinity of the repository, radionuclide release from the repository, fluid flow and radionuclide

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Results Obtained in the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bean, J.E.; Berglund, J.W.; Davis, F.J.; Economy, K.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; MacKinnon, R.J.; Miller, J.; O' Brien, D.G.; Ramsey, J.L.; Schreiber, J.D.; Shinta, A.; Smith, L.N.; Stockman, C.; Stoelzel, D.M.; Vaughn, P.

1998-09-01

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WPP) is located in southeastern New Mexico and is being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. A detailed performance assessment (PA) for the WIPP was carried out in 1996 and supports an application by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the certification of the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste. The 1996 WIPP PA uses a computational structure that maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the many possible disruptions that could occur over the 10,000 yr regulatory period that applies to the WIPP and subjective uncertainty arising from the imprecision with which many of the quantities required in the PA are known. Important parts of this structure are (1) the use of Latin hypercube sampling to incorporate the effects of subjective uncertainty, (2) the use of Monte Carlo (i.e., random) sampling to incorporate the effects of stochastic uncertainty, and (3) the efficient use of the necessarily limited number of mechanistic calculations that can be performed to support the analysis. The use of Latin hypercube sampling generates a mapping from imprecisely known analysis inputs to analysis outcomes of interest that provides both a display of the uncertainty in analysis outcomes (i.e., uncertainty analysis) and a basis for investigating the effects of individual inputs on these outcomes (i.e., sensitivity analysis). The sensitivity analysis procedures used in the PA include examination of scatterplots, stepwise regression analysis, and partial correlation analysis. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained as part of the 1996 WIPP PA are presented and discussed. Specific topics considered include two phase flow in the vicinity of the repository, radionuclide release from the repository, fluid flow and radionuclide

Sensitivity Analysis of Criticality for Different Nuclear Fuel Shapes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Hyun Sik; Jang, Misuk; Kim, Seoung Rae [NESS, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

Rod-type nuclear fuel was mainly developed in the past, but recent study has been extended to plate-type nuclear fuel. Therefore, this paper reviews the sensitivity of criticality according to different shapes of nuclear fuel types. Criticality analysis was performed using MCNP5. MCNP5 is well-known Monte Carlo codes for criticality analysis and a general-purpose Monte Carlo N-Particle code that can be used for neutron, photon, electron or coupled neutron / photon / electron transport, including the capability to calculate eigenvalues for critical systems. We performed the sensitivity analysis of criticality for different fuel shapes. In sensitivity analysis for simple fuel shapes, the criticality is proportional to the surface area. But for fuel Assembly types, it is not proportional to the surface area. In sensitivity analysis for intervals between plates, the criticality is greater as the interval increases, but if the interval is greater than 8mm, it showed an opposite trend that the criticality decrease by a larger interval. As a result, it has failed to obtain the logical content to be described in common for all cases. The sensitivity analysis of Criticality would be always required whenever subject to be analyzed is changed.

Sensitivity Analysis of Criticality for Different Nuclear Fuel Shapes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Hyun Sik; Jang, Misuk; Kim, Seoung Rae

2016-01-01

Rod-type nuclear fuel was mainly developed in the past, but recent study has been extended to plate-type nuclear fuel. Therefore, this paper reviews the sensitivity of criticality according to different shapes of nuclear fuel types. Criticality analysis was performed using MCNP5. MCNP5 is well-known Monte Carlo codes for criticality analysis and a general-purpose Monte Carlo N-Particle code that can be used for neutron, photon, electron or coupled neutron / photon / electron transport, including the capability to calculate eigenvalues for critical systems. We performed the sensitivity analysis of criticality for different fuel shapes. In sensitivity analysis for simple fuel shapes, the criticality is proportional to the surface area. But for fuel Assembly types, it is not proportional to the surface area. In sensitivity analysis for intervals between plates, the criticality is greater as the interval increases, but if the interval is greater than 8mm, it showed an opposite trend that the criticality decrease by a larger interval. As a result, it has failed to obtain the logical content to be described in common for all cases. The sensitivity analysis of Criticality would be always required whenever subject to be analyzed is changed

Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castillo, Enrique; Minguez, Roberto; Castillo, Carmen

2008-01-01

The paper starts giving the main results that allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed in a general optimization problem, including sensitivities of the objective function, the primal and the dual variables with respect to data. In particular, general results are given for non-linear programming, and closed formulas for linear programming problems are supplied. Next, the methods are applied to a collection of civil engineering reliability problems, which includes a bridge crane, a retaining wall and a composite breakwater. Finally, the sensitivity analysis formulas are extended to calculus of variations problems and a slope stability problem is used to illustrate the methods

Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Castillo, Enrique [Department of Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences, University of Cantabria, Avda. Castros s/n., 39005 Santander (Spain)], E-mail: castie@unican.es; Minguez, Roberto [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: roberto.minguez@uclm.es; Castillo, Carmen [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: mariacarmen.castillo@uclm.es

2008-12-15

The paper starts giving the main results that allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed in a general optimization problem, including sensitivities of the objective function, the primal and the dual variables with respect to data. In particular, general results are given for non-linear programming, and closed formulas for linear programming problems are supplied. Next, the methods are applied to a collection of civil engineering reliability problems, which includes a bridge crane, a retaining wall and a composite breakwater. Finally, the sensitivity analysis formulas are extended to calculus of variations problems and a slope stability problem is used to illustrate the methods.

Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Helton, Jon Craig; Storlie, Curtis B.

2006-08-01

The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described: (1) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (2) additive models, (3) projection pursuit regression, and (4) recursive partitioning regression. The indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present.

Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, Jon Craig; Storlie, Curtis B.

2006-01-01

The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described: (1) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (2) additive models, (3) projection pursuit regression, and (4) recursive partitioning regression. The indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present

Carbon dioxide capture processes: Simulation, design and sensitivity analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zaman, Muhammad; Lee, Jay Hyung; Gani, Rafiqul

2012-01-01

equilibrium and associated property models are used. Simulations are performed to investigate the sensitivity of the process variables to change in the design variables including process inputs and disturbances in the property model parameters. Results of the sensitivity analysis on the steady state...... performance of the process to the L/G ratio to the absorber, CO2 lean solvent loadings, and striper pressure are presented in this paper. Based on the sensitivity analysis process optimization problems have been defined and solved and, a preliminary control structure selection has been made.......Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas and its major source is combustion of fossil fuels for power generation. The objective of this study is to carry out the steady-state sensitivity analysis for chemical absorption of carbon dioxide capture from flue gas using monoethanolamine solvent. First...

SENSIT: a cross-section and design sensitivity and uncertainty analysis code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerstl, S.A.W.

1980-01-01

SENSIT computes the sensitivity and uncertainty of a calculated integral response (such as a dose rate) due to input cross sections and their uncertainties. Sensitivity profiles are computed for neutron and gamma-ray reaction cross sections of standard multigroup cross section sets and for secondary energy distributions (SEDs) of multigroup scattering matrices. In the design sensitivity mode, SENSIT computes changes in an integral response due to design changes and gives the appropriate sensitivity coefficients. Cross section uncertainty analyses are performed for three types of input data uncertainties: cross-section covariance matrices for pairs of multigroup reaction cross sections, spectral shape uncertainty parameters for secondary energy distributions (integral SED uncertainties), and covariance matrices for energy-dependent response functions. For all three types of data uncertainties SENSIT computes the resulting variance and estimated standard deviation in an integral response of interest, on the basis of generalized perturbation theory. SENSIT attempts to be more comprehensive than earlier sensitivity analysis codes, such as SWANLAKE

Techniques for sensitivity analysis of SYVAC results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prust, J.O.

1985-05-01

Sensitivity analysis techniques may be required to examine the sensitivity of SYVAC model predictions to the input parameter values, the subjective probability distributions assigned to the input parameters and to the relationship between dose and the probability of fatal cancers plus serious hereditary disease in the first two generations of offspring of a member of the critical group. This report mainly considers techniques for determining the sensitivity of dose and risk to the variable input parameters. The performance of a sensitivity analysis technique may be improved by decomposing the model and data into subsets for analysis, making use of existing information on sensitivity and concentrating sampling in regions the parameter space that generates high doses or risks. A number of sensitivity analysis techniques are reviewed for their application to the SYVAC model including four techniques tested in an earlier study by CAP Scientific for the SYVAC project. This report recommends the development now of a method for evaluating the derivative of dose and parameter value and extending the Kruskal-Wallis technique to test for interactions between parameters. It is also recommended that the sensitivity of the output of each sub-model of SYVAC to input parameter values should be examined. (author)

The role of sensitivity analysis in assessing uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crick, M.J.; Hill, M.D.

1987-01-01

Outside the specialist world of those carrying out performance assessments considerable confusion has arisen about the meanings of sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. In this paper we attempt to reduce this confusion. We then go on to review approaches to sensitivity analysis within the context of assessing uncertainty, and to outline the types of test available to identify sensitive parameters, together with their advantages and disadvantages. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors; they have not been formally endorsed by the National Radiological Protection Board and should not be interpreted as Board advice

Sensitivity Analysis of Wind Plant Performance to Key Turbine Design Parameters: A Systems Engineering Approach; Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dykes, K.; Ning, A.; King, R.; Graf, P.; Scott, G.; Veers, P.

2014-02-01

This paper introduces the development of a new software framework for research, design, and development of wind energy systems which is meant to 1) represent a full wind plant including all physical and nonphysical assets and associated costs up to the point of grid interconnection, 2) allow use of interchangeable models of varying fidelity for different aspects of the system, and 3) support system level multidisciplinary analyses and optimizations. This paper describes the design of the overall software capability and applies it to a global sensitivity analysis of wind turbine and plant performance and cost. The analysis was performed using three different model configurations involving different levels of fidelity, which illustrate how increasing fidelity can preserve important system interactions that build up to overall system performance and cost. Analyses were performed for a reference wind plant based on the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's 5-MW reference turbine at a mid-Atlantic offshore location within the United States.

A Global Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Multi-physics Applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tong, C H; Graziani, F R

2007-02-02

Experiments are conducted to draw inferences about an entire ensemble based on a selected number of observations. This applies to both physical experiments as well as computer experiments, the latter of which are performed by running the simulation models at different input configurations and analyzing the output responses. Computer experiments are instrumental in enabling model analyses such as uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. This report focuses on a global sensitivity analysis methodology that relies on a divide-and-conquer strategy and uses intelligent computer experiments. The objective is to assess qualitatively and/or quantitatively how the variabilities of simulation output responses can be accounted for by input variabilities. We address global sensitivity analysis in three aspects: methodology, sampling/analysis strategies, and an implementation framework. The methodology consists of three major steps: (1) construct credible input ranges; (2) perform a parameter screening study; and (3) perform a quantitative sensitivity analysis on a reduced set of parameters. Once identified, research effort should be directed to the most sensitive parameters to reduce their uncertainty bounds. This process is repeated with tightened uncertainty bounds for the sensitive parameters until the output uncertainties become acceptable. To accommodate the needs of multi-physics application, this methodology should be recursively applied to individual physics modules. The methodology is also distinguished by an efficient technique for computing parameter interactions. Details for each step will be given using simple examples. Numerical results on large scale multi-physics applications will be available in another report. Computational techniques targeted for this methodology have been implemented in a software package called PSUADE.

High order depletion sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naguib, K.; Adib, M.; Morcos, H.N.

2002-01-01

A high order depletion sensitivity method was applied to calculate the sensitivities of build-up of actinides in the irradiated fuel due to cross-section uncertainties. An iteration method based on Taylor series expansion was applied to construct stationary principle, from which all orders of perturbations were calculated. The irradiated EK-10 and MTR-20 fuels at their maximum burn-up of 25% and 65% respectively were considered for sensitivity analysis. The results of calculation show that, in case of EK-10 fuel (low burn-up), the first order sensitivity was found to be enough to perform an accuracy of 1%. While in case of MTR-20 (high burn-up) the fifth order was found to provide 3% accuracy. A computer code SENS was developed to provide the required calculations

Automating sensitivity analysis of computer models using computer calculus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oblow, E.M.; Pin, F.G.

1986-01-01

An automated procedure for performing sensitivity analysis has been developed. The procedure uses a new FORTRAN compiler with computer calculus capabilities to generate the derivatives needed to set up sensitivity equations. The new compiler is called GRESS - Gradient Enhanced Software System. Application of the automated procedure with direct and adjoint sensitivity theory for the analysis of non-linear, iterative systems of equations is discussed. Calculational efficiency consideration and techniques for adjoint sensitivity analysis are emphasized. The new approach is found to preserve the traditional advantages of adjoint theory while removing the tedious human effort previously needed to apply this theoretical methodology. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of the automated procedure in numerical analysis and large-scale modelling sensitivity studies

Sensitivity analysis of an Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor control rod model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, M.; Green, P.L.; O’Driscoll, D.; Worden, K.; Sims, N.D.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A model was made of the AGR control rod mechanism. • The aim was to better understand the performance when shutting down the reactor. • The model showed good agreement with test data. • Sensitivity analysis was carried out. • The results demonstrated the robustness of the system. - Abstract: A model has been made of the primary shutdown system of an Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor nuclear power station. The aim of this paper is to explore the use of sensitivity analysis techniques on this model. The two motivations for performing sensitivity analysis are to quantify how much individual uncertain parameters are responsible for the model output uncertainty, and to make predictions about what could happen if one or several parameters were to change. Global sensitivity analysis techniques were used based on Gaussian process emulation; the software package GEM-SA was used to calculate the main effects, the main effect index and the total sensitivity index for each parameter and these were compared to local sensitivity analysis results. The results suggest that the system performance is resistant to adverse changes in several parameters at once.

Procedures for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in repository performance assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poern, K.; Aakerlund, O.

1985-10-01

The objective of the project was mainly a literature study of available methods for the treatment of parameter uncertainty propagation and sensitivity aspects in complete models such as those concerning geologic disposal of radioactive waste. The study, which has run parallel with the development of a code package (PROPER) for computer assisted analysis of function, also aims at the choice of accurate, cost-affective methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Such a choice depends on several factors like the number of input parameters, the capacity of the model and the computer reresources required to use the model. Two basic approaches are addressed in the report. In one of these the model of interest is directly simulated by an efficient sampling technique to generate an output distribution. Applying the other basic method the model is replaced by an approximating analytical response surface, which is then used in the sampling phase or in moment matching to generate the output distribution. Both approaches are illustrated by simple examples in the report. (author)

Sensitivity analysis methods and a biosphere test case implemented in EIKOS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ekstroem, P.A.; Broed, R. [Facilia AB, Stockholm, (Sweden)

2006-05-15

Computer-based models can be used to approximate real life processes. These models are usually based on mathematical equations, which are dependent on several variables. The predictive capability of models is therefore limited by the uncertainty in the value of these. Sensitivity analysis is used to apportion the relative importance each uncertain input parameter has on the output variation. Sensitivity analysis is therefore an essential tool in simulation modelling and for performing risk assessments. Simple sensitivity analysis techniques based on fitting the output to a linear equation are often used, for example correlation or linear regression coefficients. These methods work well for linear models, but for non-linear models their sensitivity estimations are not accurate. Usually models of complex natural systems are non-linear. Within the scope of this work, various sensitivity analysis methods, which can cope with linear, non-linear, as well as non-monotone problems, have been implemented, in a software package, EIKOS, written in Matlab language. The following sensitivity analysis methods are supported by EIKOS: Pearson product moment correlation coefficient (CC), Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient (RCC), Partial (Rank) Correlation Coefficients (PCC), Standardized (Rank) Regression Coefficients (SRC), Sobol' method, Jansen's alternative, Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST) as well as the classical FAST method and the Smirnov and the Cramer-von Mises tests. A graphical user interface has also been developed, from which the user easily can load or call the model and perform a sensitivity analysis as well as uncertainty analysis. The implemented sensitivity analysis methods has been benchmarked with well-known test functions and compared with other sensitivity analysis software, with successful results. An illustration of the applicability of EIKOS is added to the report. The test case used is a landscape model consisting of several

Sensitivity analysis methods and a biosphere test case implemented in EIKOS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ekstroem, P.A.; Broed, R.

2006-05-01

Computer-based models can be used to approximate real life processes. These models are usually based on mathematical equations, which are dependent on several variables. The predictive capability of models is therefore limited by the uncertainty in the value of these. Sensitivity analysis is used to apportion the relative importance each uncertain input parameter has on the output variation. Sensitivity analysis is therefore an essential tool in simulation modelling and for performing risk assessments. Simple sensitivity analysis techniques based on fitting the output to a linear equation are often used, for example correlation or linear regression coefficients. These methods work well for linear models, but for non-linear models their sensitivity estimations are not accurate. Usually models of complex natural systems are non-linear. Within the scope of this work, various sensitivity analysis methods, which can cope with linear, non-linear, as well as non-monotone problems, have been implemented, in a software package, EIKOS, written in Matlab language. The following sensitivity analysis methods are supported by EIKOS: Pearson product moment correlation coefficient (CC), Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient (RCC), Partial (Rank) Correlation Coefficients (PCC), Standardized (Rank) Regression Coefficients (SRC), Sobol' method, Jansen's alternative, Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST) as well as the classical FAST method and the Smirnov and the Cramer-von Mises tests. A graphical user interface has also been developed, from which the user easily can load or call the model and perform a sensitivity analysis as well as uncertainty analysis. The implemented sensitivity analysis methods has been benchmarked with well-known test functions and compared with other sensitivity analysis software, with successful results. An illustration of the applicability of EIKOS is added to the report. The test case used is a landscape model consisting of several linked

Numeric-modeling sensitivity analysis of the performance of wind turbine arrays

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lissaman, P.B.S.; Gyatt, G.W.; Zalay, A.D.

1982-06-01

An evaluation of the numerical model created by Lissaman for predicting the performance of wind turbine arrays has been made. Model predictions of the wake parameters have been compared with both full-scale and wind tunnel measurements. Only limited, full-scale data were available, while wind tunnel studies showed difficulties in representing real meteorological conditions. Nevertheless, several modifications and additions have been made to the model using both theoretical and empirical techniques and the new model shows good correlation with experiment. The larger wake growth rate and shorter near wake length predicted by the new model lead to reduced interference effects on downstream turbines and hence greater array efficiencies. The array model has also been re-examined and now incorporates the ability to show the effects of real meteorological conditions such as variations in wind speed and unsteady winds. The resulting computer code has been run to show the sensitivity of array performance to meteorological, machine, and array parameters. Ambient turbulence and windwise spacing are shown to dominate, while hub height ratio is seen to be relatively unimportant. Finally, a detailed analysis of the Goodnoe Hills wind farm in Washington has been made to show how power output can be expected to vary with ambient turbulence, wind speed, and wind direction.

Automating sensitivity analysis of computer models using computer calculus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oblow, E.M.; Pin, F.G.

1985-01-01

An automated procedure for performing sensitivity analyses has been developed. The procedure uses a new FORTRAN compiler with computer calculus capabilities to generate the derivatives needed to set up sensitivity equations. The new compiler is called GRESS - Gradient Enhanced Software System. Application of the automated procedure with ''direct'' and ''adjoint'' sensitivity theory for the analysis of non-linear, iterative systems of equations is discussed. Calculational efficiency consideration and techniques for adjoint sensitivity analysis are emphasized. The new approach is found to preserve the traditional advantages of adjoint theory while removing the tedious human effort previously needed to apply this theoretical methodology. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of the automated procedure in numerical analysis and large-scale modelling sensitivity studies. 24 refs., 2 figs

WHAT IF (Sensitivity Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iulian N. BUJOREANU

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Sensitivity analysis represents such a well known and deeply analyzed subject that anyone to enter the field feels like not being able to add anything new. Still, there are so many facets to be taken into consideration.The paper introduces the reader to the various ways sensitivity analysis is implemented and the reasons for which it has to be implemented in most analyses in the decision making processes. Risk analysis is of outmost importance in dealing with resource allocation and is presented at the beginning of the paper as the initial cause to implement sensitivity analysis. Different views and approaches are added during the discussion about sensitivity analysis so that the reader develops an as thoroughly as possible opinion on the use and UTILITY of the sensitivity analysis. Finally, a round-up conclusion brings us to the question of the possibility of generating the future and analyzing it before it unfolds so that, when it happens it brings less uncertainty.

Rethinking Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Simulations with Topology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dan Maljovec; Bei Wang; Paul Rosen; Andrea Alfonsi; Giovanni Pastore; Cristian Rabiti; Valerio Pascucci

2016-01-01

In nuclear engineering, understanding the safety margins of the nuclear reactor via simulations is arguably of paramount importance in predicting and preventing nuclear accidents. It is therefore crucial to perform sensitivity analysis to understand how changes in the model inputs affect the outputs. Modern nuclear simulation tools rely on numerical representations of the sensitivity information -- inherently lacking in visual encodings -- offering limited effectiveness in communicating and exploring the generated data. In this paper, we design a framework for sensitivity analysis and visualization of multidimensional nuclear simulation data using partition-based, topology-inspired regression models and report on its efficacy. We rely on the established Morse-Smale regression technique, which allows us to partition the domain into monotonic regions where easily interpretable linear models can be used to assess the influence of inputs on the output variability. The underlying computation is augmented with an intuitive and interactive visual design to effectively communicate sensitivity information to the nuclear scientists. Our framework is being deployed into the multi-purpose probabilistic risk assessment and uncertainty quantification framework RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual Control Environment). We evaluate our framework using an simulation dataset studying nuclear fuel performance.

Effect of dye extracting solvents and sensitization time on photovoltaic performance of natural dye sensitized solar cells

Science.gov (United States)

Hossain, Md. Khalid; Pervez, M. Firoz; Mia, M. N. H.; Mortuza, A. A.; Rahaman, M. S.; Karim, M. R.; Islam, Jahid M. M.; Ahmed, Farid; Khan, Mubarak A.

In this study, natural dye sensitizer based solar cells were successfully fabricated and photovoltaic performance was measured. Sensitizer (turmeric) sources, dye extraction process, and photoanode sensitization time of the fabricated cells were analyzed and optimized. Dry turmeric, verdant turmeric, and powder turmeric were used as dye sources. Five distinct types of solvents were used for extraction of natural dye from turmeric. Dyes were characterized by UV-Vis spectrophotometric analysis. The extracted turmeric dye was used as a sensitizer in the dye sensitized solar cell's (DSSC) photoanode assembly. Nano-crystalline TiO2 was used as a film coating semiconductor material of the photoanode. TiO2 films on ITO glass substrate were prepared by simple doctor blade technique. The influence of the different parameters VOC, JSC, power density, FF, and η% on the photovoltaic characteristics of DSSCs was analyzed. The best energy conversion performance was obtained for 2 h adsorption time of dye on TiO2 nano-porous surface with ethanol extracted dye from dry turmeric.

HF Propagation sensitivity study and system performance analysis with the Air Force Coverage Analysis Program (AFCAP)

Science.gov (United States)

Caton, R. G.; Colman, J. J.; Parris, R. T.; Nickish, L.; Bullock, G.

2017-12-01

The Air Force Research Laboratory, in collaboration with NorthWest Research Associates, is developing advanced software capabilities for high fidelity simulations of high frequency (HF) sky wave propagation and performance analysis of HF systems. Based on the HiCIRF (High-frequency Channel Impulse Response Function) platform [Nickisch et. al, doi:10.1029/2011RS004928], the new Air Force Coverage Analysis Program (AFCAP) provides the modular capabilities necessary for a comprehensive sensitivity study of the large number of variables which define simulations of HF propagation modes. In this paper, we report on an initial exercise of AFCAP to analyze the sensitivities of the tool to various environmental and geophysical parameters. Through examination of the channel scattering function and amplitude-range-Doppler output on two-way propagation paths with injected target signals, we will compare simulated returns over a range of geophysical conditions as well as varying definitions for environmental noise, meteor clutter, and sea state models for Bragg backscatter. We also investigate the impacts of including clutter effects due to field-aligned backscatter from small scale ionization structures at varied levels of severity as defined by the climatologically WideBand Model (WBMOD). In the absence of additional user provided information, AFCAP relies on International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model to define the ionospheric state for use in 2D ray tracing algorithms. Because the AFCAP architecture includes the option for insertion of a user defined gridded ionospheric representation, we compare output from the tool using the IRI and ionospheric definitions from assimilative models such as GPSII (GPS Ionospheric Inversion).

Global sensitivity analysis using emulators, with an example analysis of large fire plumes based on FDS simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kelsey, Adrian [Health and Safety Laboratory, Harpur Hill, Buxton (United Kingdom)

2015-12-15

Uncertainty in model predictions of the behaviour of fires is an important issue in fire safety analysis in nuclear power plants. A global sensitivity analysis can help identify the input parameters or sub-models that have the most significant effect on model predictions. However, to perform a global sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo sampling might require thousands of simulations to be performed and therefore would not be practical for an analysis based on a complex fire code using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). An alternative approach is to perform a global sensitivity analysis using an emulator. Gaussian process emulators can be built using a limited number of simulations and once built a global sensitivity analysis can be performed on an emulator, rather than using simulations directly. Typically reliable emulators can be built using ten simulations for each parameter under consideration, therefore allowing a global sensitivity analysis to be performed, even for a complex computer code. In this paper we use an example of a large scale pool fire to demonstrate an emulator based approach to global sensitivity analysis. In that work an emulator based global sensitivity analysis was used to identify the key uncertain model inputs affecting the entrainment rates and flame heights in large Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) fire plumes. The pool fire simulations were performed using the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) software. Five model inputs were varied: the fire diameter, burn rate, radiative fraction, computational grid cell size and choice of turbulence model. The ranges used for these parameters in the analysis were determined from experiment and literature. The Gaussian process emulators used in the analysis were created using 127 FDS simulations. The emulators were checked for reliability, and then used to perform a global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. Large-scale ignited releases of LNG on water were performed by Sandia National

Sensitivity Analysis of OECD Benchmark Tests in BISON

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Swiler, Laura Painton [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gamble, Kyle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Schmidt, Rodney C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Williamson, Richard [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-09-01

This report summarizes a NEAMS (Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation) project focused on sensitivity analysis of a fuels performance benchmark problem. The benchmark problem was defined by the Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling working group of the Nuclear Science Committee, part of the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD ). The benchmark problem involv ed steady - state behavior of a fuel pin in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The problem was created in the BISON Fuels Performance code. Dakota was used to generate and analyze 300 samples of 17 input parameters defining core boundary conditions, manuf acturing tolerances , and fuel properties. There were 24 responses of interest, including fuel centerline temperatures at a variety of locations and burnup levels, fission gas released, axial elongation of the fuel pin, etc. Pearson and Spearman correlatio n coefficients and Sobol' variance - based indices were used to perform the sensitivity analysis. This report summarizes the process and presents results from this study.

Sensitivity analysis on the effect of key parameters on the performance of parabolic trough solar collectors

Science.gov (United States)

Muhlen, Luis S. W.; Najafi, Behzad; Rinaldi, Fabio; Marchesi, Renzo

2014-04-01

Solar troughs are amongst the most commonly used technologies for collecting solar thermal energy and any attempt to increase the performance of these systems is welcomed. In the present study a parabolic solar trough is simulated using a one dimensional finite element model in which the energy balances for the fluid, the absorber and the envelope in each element are performed. The developed model is then validated using the available experimental data . A sensitivity analysis is performed in the next step in order to study the effect of changing the type of the working fluid and the corresponding Reynolds number on the overall performance of the system. The potential improvement due to the addition of a shield on the upper half of the annulus and enhancing the convection coefficient of the heat transfer fluid is also studied.

Sensitivity analysis on the effect of key parameters on the performance of parabolic trough solar collectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muhlen, Luis S W; Najafi, Behzad; Rinaldi, Fabio; Marchesi, Renzo

2014-01-01

Solar troughs are amongst the most commonly used technologies for collecting solar thermal energy and any attempt to increase the performance of these systems is welcomed. In the present study a parabolic solar trough is simulated using a one dimensional finite element model in which the energy balances for the fluid, the absorber and the envelope in each element are performed. The developed model is then validated using the available experimental data . A sensitivity analysis is performed in the next step in order to study the effect of changing the type of the working fluid and the corresponding Reynolds number on the overall performance of the system. The potential improvement due to the addition of a shield on the upper half of the annulus and enhancing the convection coefficient of the heat transfer fluid is also studied.

An automated sensitivity analysis procedure for the performance assessment of nuclear waste isolation systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pin, F.G.; Worley, B.A.; Oblow, E.M.; Wright, R.Q.; Harper, W.V.

1986-01-01

To support an effort in making large-scale sensitivity analyses feasible, cost efficient and quantitatively complete, the authors have developed an automated procedure making use of computer calculus. The procedure, called GRESS (GRadient Enhanced Software System), is embodied in a precompiler that can process Fortran computer codes and add derivative-taking capabilities to the normal calculation scheme. In this paper, the automated GRESS procedure is described and applied to the code UCB-NE-10.2, which simulates the migration through a sorption medium of the radionuclide members of a decay chain. The sensitivity calculations for a sample problem are verified using comparison with analytical and perturbation analysis results. Conclusions are drawn relative to the applicability of GRESS for more general large-scale sensitivity studies, and the role of such techniques in an overall sensitivity and uncertainty analysis program is discussed

May Day: A computer code to perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Manuals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bolado, R.; Alonso, A.; Moya, J.M.

1996-07-01

The computer program May Day was developed to carry out the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the evaluation of radioactive waste storage. The May Day was made by the Polytechnical University of Madrid. (Author)

Simple Sensitivity Analysis for Orion GNC

Science.gov (United States)

Pressburger, Tom; Hoelscher, Brian; Martin, Rodney; Sricharan, Kumar

2013-01-01

The performance of Orion flight software, especially its GNC software, is being analyzed by running Monte Carlo simulations of Orion spacecraft flights. The simulated performance is analyzed for conformance with flight requirements, expressed as performance constraints. Flight requirements include guidance (e.g. touchdown distance from target) and control (e.g., control saturation) as well as performance (e.g., heat load constraints). The Monte Carlo simulations disperse hundreds of simulation input variables, for everything from mass properties to date of launch.We describe in this paper a sensitivity analysis tool (Critical Factors Tool or CFT) developed to find the input variables or pairs of variables which by themselves significantly influence satisfaction of requirements or significantly affect key performance metrics (e.g., touchdown distance from target). Knowing these factors can inform robustness analysis, can inform where engineering resources are most needed, and could even affect operations. The contributions of this paper include the introduction of novel sensitivity measures, such as estimating success probability, and a technique for determining whether pairs of factors are interacting dependently or independently. The tool found that input variables such as moments, mass, thrust dispersions, and date of launch were found to be significant factors for success of various requirements. Examples are shown in this paper as well as a summary and physics discussion of EFT-1 driving factors that the tool found.

Automatic differentiation for design sensitivity analysis of structural systems using multiple processors

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Duc T.; Storaasli, Olaf O.; Qin, Jiangning; Qamar, Ramzi

1994-01-01

An automatic differentiation tool (ADIFOR) is incorporated into a finite element based structural analysis program for shape and non-shape design sensitivity analysis of structural systems. The entire analysis and sensitivity procedures are parallelized and vectorized for high performance computation. Small scale examples to verify the accuracy of the proposed program and a medium scale example to demonstrate the parallel vector performance on multiple CRAY C90 processors are included.

Sensitivity analysis of the reactor safety study. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parkinson, W.J.; Rasmussen, N.C.; Hinkle, W.D.

1979-01-01

The Reactor Safety Study (RSS) or Wash 1400 developed a methodology estimating the public risk from light water nuclear reactors. In order to give further insights into this study, a sensitivity analysis has been performed to determine the significant contributors to risk for both the PWR and BWR. The sensitivity to variation of the point values of the failure probabilities reported in the RSS was determined for the safety systems identified therein, as well as for many of the generic classes from which individual failures contributed to system failures. Increasing as well as decreasing point values were considered. An analysis of the sensitivity to increasing uncertainty in system failure probabilities was also performed. The sensitivity parameters chosen were release category probabilities, core melt probability, and the risk parameters of early fatalities, latent cancers and total property damage. The latter three are adequate for describing all public risks identified in the RSS. The results indicate reductions of public risk by less than a factor of two for factor reductions in system or generic failure probabilities as high as one hundred. There also appears to be more benefit in monitoring the most sensitive systems to verify adherence to RSS failure rates than to backfitting present reactors. The sensitivity analysis results do indicate, however, possible benefits in reducing human error rates

Prior Sensitivity Analysis in Default Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

van Erp, Sara; Mulder, Joris; Oberski, Daniel L

2017-11-27

Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) has recently gained popularity because it enables researchers to fit complex models and solve some of the issues often encountered in classical maximum likelihood estimation, such as nonconvergence and inadmissible solutions. An important component of any Bayesian analysis is the prior distribution of the unknown model parameters. Often, researchers rely on default priors, which are constructed in an automatic fashion without requiring substantive prior information. However, the prior can have a serious influence on the estimation of the model parameters, which affects the mean squared error, bias, coverage rates, and quantiles of the estimates. In this article, we investigate the performance of three different default priors: noninformative improper priors, vague proper priors, and empirical Bayes priors-with the latter being novel in the BSEM literature. Based on a simulation study, we find that these three default BSEM methods may perform very differently, especially with small samples. A careful prior sensitivity analysis is therefore needed when performing a default BSEM analysis. For this purpose, we provide a practical step-by-step guide for practitioners to conducting a prior sensitivity analysis in default BSEM. Our recommendations are illustrated using a well-known case study from the structural equation modeling literature, and all code for conducting the prior sensitivity analysis is available in the online supplemental materials. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.

2001-01-01

This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)

Sensitivity Analysis of Multidisciplinary Rotorcraft Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Li; Diskin, Boris; Biedron, Robert T.; Nielsen, Eric J.; Bauchau, Olivier A.

2017-01-01

A multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis of rotorcraft simulations involving tightly coupled high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics and comprehensive analysis solvers is presented and evaluated. An unstructured sensitivity-enabled Navier-Stokes solver, FUN3D, and a nonlinear flexible multibody dynamics solver, DYMORE, are coupled to predict the aerodynamic loads and structural responses of helicopter rotor blades. A discretely-consistent adjoint-based sensitivity analysis available in FUN3D provides sensitivities arising from unsteady turbulent flows and unstructured dynamic overset meshes, while a complex-variable approach is used to compute DYMORE structural sensitivities with respect to aerodynamic loads. The multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis is conducted through integrating the sensitivity components from each discipline of the coupled system. Numerical results verify accuracy of the FUN3D/DYMORE system by conducting simulations for a benchmark rotorcraft test model and comparing solutions with established analyses and experimental data. Complex-variable implementation of sensitivity analysis of DYMORE and the coupled FUN3D/DYMORE system is verified by comparing with real-valued analysis and sensitivities. Correctness of adjoint formulations for FUN3D/DYMORE interfaces is verified by comparing adjoint-based and complex-variable sensitivities. Finally, sensitivities of the lift and drag functions obtained by complex-variable FUN3D/DYMORE simulations are compared with sensitivities computed by the multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis, which couples adjoint-based flow and grid sensitivities of FUN3D and FUN3D/DYMORE interfaces with complex-variable sensitivities of DYMORE structural responses.

Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iooss, Bertrand; Ribatet, Mathieu

2009-01-01

Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the response variability of a numerical model. The common quantitative methods are appropriate with computer codes having scalar model inputs. This paper aims at illustrating different variance-based sensitivity analysis techniques, based on the so-called Sobol's indices, when some model inputs are functional, such as stochastic processes or random spatial fields. In this work, we focus on large cpu time computer codes which need a preliminary metamodeling step before performing the sensitivity analysis. We propose the use of the joint modeling approach, i.e., modeling simultaneously the mean and the dispersion of the code outputs using two interlinked generalized linear models (GLMs) or generalized additive models (GAMs). The 'mean model' allows to estimate the sensitivity indices of each scalar model inputs, while the 'dispersion model' allows to derive the total sensitivity index of the functional model inputs. The proposed approach is compared to some classical sensitivity analysis methodologies on an analytical function. Lastly, the new methodology is applied to an industrial computer code that simulates the nuclear fuel irradiation.

Sensitivity Analysis of Centralized Dynamic Cell Selection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lopez, Victor Fernandez; Alvarez, Beatriz Soret; Pedersen, Klaus I.

2016-01-01

and a suboptimal optimization algorithm that nearly achieves the performance of the optimal Hungarian assignment. Moreover, an exhaustive sensitivity analysis with different network and traffic configurations is carried out in order to understand what conditions are more appropriate for the use of the proposed...

Sobol' sensitivity analysis for stressor impacts on honeybee ...

Science.gov (United States)

We employ Monte Carlo simulation and nonlinear sensitivity analysis techniques to describe the dynamics of a bee exposure model, VarroaPop. Daily simulations are performed of hive population trajectories, taking into account queen strength, foraging success, mite impacts, weather, colony resources, population structure, and other important variables. This allows us to test the effects of defined pesticide exposure scenarios versus controlled simulations that lack pesticide exposure. The daily resolution of the model also allows us to conditionally identify sensitivity metrics. We use the variancebased global decomposition sensitivity analysis method, Sobol’, to assess firstand secondorder parameter sensitivities within VarroaPop, allowing us to determine how variance in the output is attributed to each of the input variables across different exposure scenarios. Simulations with VarroaPop indicate queen strength, forager life span and pesticide toxicity parameters are consistent, critical inputs for colony dynamics. Further analysis also reveals that the relative importance of these parameters fluctuates throughout the simulation period according to the status of other inputs. Our preliminary results show that model variability is conditional and can be attributed to different parameters depending on different timescales. By using sensitivity analysis to assess model output and variability, calibrations of simulation models can be better informed to yield more

Effect of dye extracting solvents and sensitization time on photovoltaic performance of natural dye sensitized solar cells

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Md. Khalid Hossain

Full Text Available In this study, natural dye sensitizer based solar cells were successfully fabricated and photovoltaic performance was measured. Sensitizer (turmeric sources, dye extraction process, and photoanode sensitization time of the fabricated cells were analyzed and optimized. Dry turmeric, verdant turmeric, and powder turmeric were used as dye sources. Five distinct types of solvents were used for extraction of natural dye from turmeric. Dyes were characterized by UV–Vis spectrophotometric analysis. The extracted turmeric dye was used as a sensitizer in the dye sensitized solar cell’s (DSSC photoanode assembly. Nano-crystalline TiO2 was used as a film coating semiconductor material of the photoanode. TiO2 films on ITO glass substrate were prepared by simple doctor blade technique. The influence of the different parameters VOC, JSC, power density, FF, and η% on the photovoltaic characteristics of DSSCs was analyzed. The best energy conversion performance was obtained for 2 h adsorption time of dye on TiO2 nano-porous surface with ethanol extracted dye from dry turmeric. Keywords: DSSC, Natural dye, TiO2 photoanode, Dye extracting solvent, Dye-adsorption time

Sensitivity analysis on retardation effect of natural barriers against radionuclide transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hatanaka, K.

1994-01-01

The generic performance assessment of the geological disposal system for high level waste (HLW) in Japan has been carried out by the Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation (PNC) in accordance with the overall HLW management program defined by the Atomic Energy Commission of Japan. The Japanese concept of the geological disposal system is based on a multi-barrier system which is composed of vitrified waste, carbon steel overpack, thick bentonite buffer and a variety of realistic geological conditions. The main objectives of the study are the detailed analysis of the performance of engineered barrier system (EBS) and the analysis of the performance of natural barrier system (NBS) and the evaluation of its compliance with the required overall system performance. Sensitivity analysis was carried out for the objectives to investigate the way and extent of the retardation in the release to biosphere by the effect of NBS, and to clarify the conditions which is sufficient to ensure that the overall system meets safety requirement. The radionuclide transport model in geological media, the sensitivity analysis, and the calculated results of the retardation effect of NBS in terms of the sensitivity parameters are reported. (K.I.)

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis with CASL Core Simulator VERA-CS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, C.S.; Zhang, Hongbin

2016-01-01

VERA-CS (Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications, Core Simulator) is a coupled neutron transport and thermal-hydraulics code under development by the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). An approach to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis with VERA-CS was developed and a new toolkit was created to perform uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. A 2 × 2 fuel assembly model was developed and simulated by VERA-CS, and uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis were performed with fourteen uncertain input parameters. The minimum departure from nucleate boiling ratio (MDNBR), maximum fuel center-line temperature, and maximum outer clad surface temperature were chosen as the selected figures of merit. Pearson, Spearman, and partial correlation coefficients were considered for all of the figures of merit in sensitivity analysis and coolant inlet temperature was consistently the most influential parameter. Parameters used as inputs to the critical heat flux calculation with the W-3 correlation were shown to be the most influential on the MDNBR, maximum fuel center-line temperature, and maximum outer clad surface temperature.

Automated sensitivity analysis: New tools for modeling complex dynamic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pin, F.G.

1987-01-01

Sensitivity analysis is an established methodology used by researchers in almost every field to gain essential insight in design and modeling studies and in performance assessments of complex systems. Conventional sensitivity analysis methodologies, however, have not enjoyed the widespread use they deserve considering the wealth of information they can provide, partly because of their prohibitive cost or the large initial analytical investment they require. Automated systems have recently been developed at ORNL to eliminate these drawbacks. Compilers such as GRESS and EXAP now allow automatic and cost effective calculation of sensitivities in FORTRAN computer codes. In this paper, these and other related tools are described and their impact and applicability in the general areas of modeling, performance assessment and decision making for radioactive waste isolation problems are discussed

Sensitivity analysis of a low-level waste environmental transport code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hiromoto, G.

1989-01-01

Results are presented from a sensivity analysis of a computer code designed to simulate the environmental transport of radionuclides buried at shallow land waste repositories. A sensitivity analysis methodology, based on the surface response replacement and statistic sensitivity estimators, was developed to address the relative importance of the input parameters on the model output. Response surface replacement for the model was constructed by stepwise regression, after sampling input vectors from range and distribution of the input variables, and running the code to generate the associated output data. Sensitivity estimators were compute using the partial rank correlation coefficients and the standardized rank regression coefficients. The results showed that the tecniques employed in this work provides a feasible means to perform a sensitivity analysis of a general not-linear environmental radionuclides transport models. (author) [pt

Allergen Sensitization Pattern by Sex: A Cluster Analysis in Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Ohn, Jungyoon; Paik, Seung Hwan; Doh, Eun Jin; Park, Hyun-Sun; Yoon, Hyun-Sun; Cho, Soyun

2017-12-01

Allergens tend to sensitize simultaneously. Etiology of this phenomenon has been suggested to be allergen cross-reactivity or concurrent exposure. However, little is known about specific allergen sensitization patterns. To investigate the allergen sensitization characteristics according to gender. Multiple allergen simultaneous test (MAST) is widely used as a screening tool for detecting allergen sensitization in dermatologic clinics. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients with MAST results between 2008 and 2014 in our Department of Dermatology. A cluster analysis was performed to elucidate the allergen-specific immunoglobulin (Ig)E cluster pattern. The results of MAST (39 allergen-specific IgEs) from 4,360 cases were analyzed. By cluster analysis, 39items were grouped into 8 clusters. Each cluster had characteristic features. When compared with female, the male group tended to be sensitized more frequently to all tested allergens, except for fungus allergens cluster. The cluster and comparative analysis results demonstrate that the allergen sensitization is clustered, manifesting allergen similarity or co-exposure. Only the fungus cluster allergens tend to sensitize female group more frequently than male group.

Demonstration sensitivity analysis for RADTRAN III

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neuhauser, K.S.; Reardon, P.C.

1986-10-01

A demonstration sensitivity analysis was performed to: quantify the relative importance of 37 variables to the total incident free dose; assess the elasticity of seven dose subgroups to those same variables; develop density distributions for accident dose to combinations of accident data under wide-ranging variations; show the relationship between accident consequences and probabilities of occurrence; and develop limits for the variability of probability consequence curves

Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Models with Missing Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Tang, Niansheng

2014-04-01

Methods for handling missing data depend strongly on the mechanism that generated the missing values, such as missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), as well as other distributional and modeling assumptions at various stages. It is well known that the resulting estimates and tests may be sensitive to these assumptions as well as to outlying observations. In this paper, we introduce various perturbations to modeling assumptions and individual observations, and then develop a formal sensitivity analysis to assess these perturbations in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with missing data. We develop a geometric framework, called the Bayesian perturbation manifold, to characterize the intrinsic structure of these perturbations. We propose several intrinsic influence measures to perform sensitivity analysis and quantify the effect of various perturbations to statistical models. We use the proposed sensitivity analysis procedure to systematically investigate the tenability of the non-ignorable missing at random (NMAR) assumption. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and a dataset is analyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures.

The EVEREST project: sensitivity analysis of geological disposal systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marivoet, Jan; Wemaere, Isabelle; Escalier des Orres, Pierre; Baudoin, Patrick; Certes, Catherine; Levassor, Andre; Prij, Jan; Martens, Karl-Heinz; Roehlig, Klaus

1997-01-01

The main objective of the EVEREST project is the evaluation of the sensitivity of the radiological consequences associated with the geological disposal of radioactive waste to the different elements in the performance assessment. Three types of geological host formations are considered: clay, granite and salt. The sensitivity studies that have been carried out can be partitioned into three categories according to the type of uncertainty taken into account: uncertainty in the model parameters, uncertainty in the conceptual models and uncertainty in the considered scenarios. Deterministic as well as stochastic calculational approaches have been applied for the sensitivity analyses. For the analysis of the sensitivity to parameter values, the reference technique, which has been applied in many evaluations, is stochastic and consists of a Monte Carlo simulation followed by a linear regression. For the analysis of conceptual model uncertainty, deterministic and stochastic approaches have been used. For the analysis of uncertainty in the considered scenarios, mainly deterministic approaches have been applied

Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis: Example results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Storlie, Curtis B.; Helton, Jon C.

2008-01-01

The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described in the first part of this presentation: (i) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (ii) additive models, (iii) projection pursuit regression, and (iv) recursive partitioning regression. In this, the second and concluding part of the presentation, the indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present

Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A; Pantazis, Yannis

2015-01-01

Existing sensitivity analysis approaches are not able to handle efficiently stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters and species, which are typical in the modeling and simulation of complex biochemical phenomena. In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner. In the second step of the proposed strategy, a finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially) sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in "sloppy" systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of parameters over the

Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Georgios Arampatzis

Full Text Available Existing sensitivity analysis approaches are not able to handle efficiently stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters and species, which are typical in the modeling and simulation of complex biochemical phenomena. In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner. In the second step of the proposed strategy, a finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in "sloppy" systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of

Comparison of global sensitivity analysis techniques and importance measures in PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borgonovo, E.; Apostolakis, G.E.; Tarantola, S.; Saltelli, A.

2003-01-01

This paper discusses application and results of global sensitivity analysis techniques to probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) models, and their comparison to importance measures. This comparison allows one to understand whether PSA elements that are important to the risk, as revealed by importance measures, are also important contributors to the model uncertainty, as revealed by global sensitivity analysis. We show that, due to epistemic dependence, uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis of PSA models must be performed at the parameter level. A difficulty arises, since standard codes produce the calculations at the basic event level. We discuss both the indirect comparison through importance measures computed for basic events, and the direct comparison performed using the differential importance measure and the Fussell-Vesely importance at the parameter level. Results are discussed for the large LLOCA sequence of the advanced test reactor PSA

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation

Science.gov (United States)

Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten

2015-04-01

Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.

SBML-SAT: a systems biology markup language (SBML) based sensitivity analysis tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Zi, Zhike; Zheng, Yanan; Rundell, Ann E; Klipp, Edda

2008-08-15

It has long been recognized that sensitivity analysis plays a key role in modeling and analyzing cellular and biochemical processes. Systems biology markup language (SBML) has become a well-known platform for coding and sharing mathematical models of such processes. However, current SBML compatible software tools are limited in their ability to perform global sensitivity analyses of these models. This work introduces a freely downloadable, software package, SBML-SAT, which implements algorithms for simulation, steady state analysis, robustness analysis and local and global sensitivity analysis for SBML models. This software tool extends current capabilities through its execution of global sensitivity analyses using multi-parametric sensitivity analysis, partial rank correlation coefficient, SOBOL's method, and weighted average of local sensitivity analyses in addition to its ability to handle systems with discontinuous events and intuitive graphical user interface. SBML-SAT provides the community of systems biologists a new tool for the analysis of their SBML models of biochemical and cellular processes.

Application of sensitivity analysis in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirschberg, S.; Knochenhauer, M.

1986-01-01

Nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies utilise many models, simplifications and assumptions. Also subjective judgement is widely applied due to lack of actual data. This results in significant uncertainties. Three general types of uncertainties have been identified: (1) parameter uncertainties, (2) modelling uncertainties, and (3) completeness uncertainties. The significance of some of the modelling assumptions and simplifications cannot be investigated by assignment and propagation of parameter uncertainties. In such cases the impact of different options may (and should) be studied by performing sensitivity analyses, which concentrate on the most critical elements. This paper describes several items suitable for close examination by means of application of sensitivity analysis, when performing a level 1 PRA. Sensitivity analyses are performed with respect to: (1) boundary conditions (success criteria, credit for non-safety systems, degree of detail in modelling of support functions), (2) operator actions, (3) treatment of common cause failures (CCFs). The items of main interest are continuously identified in the course of performing a PRA study, as well as by scrutinising the final results. The practical aspects of sensitivity analysis are illustrated by several applications from a recent PRA study. The critical importance of modelling assumptions is also demonstrated by implementation of some modelling features from another level 1 PRA into the reference model. It is concluded that sensitivity analysis leads to insights important for analysts, reviewers and decision makers. (author)

Parameter uncertainty effects on variance-based sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, W.; Harris, T.J.

2009-01-01

In the past several years there has been considerable commercial and academic interest in methods for variance-based sensitivity analysis. The industrial focus is motivated by the importance of attributing variance contributions to input factors. A more complete understanding of these relationships enables companies to achieve goals related to quality, safety and asset utilization. In a number of applications, it is possible to distinguish between two types of input variables-regressive variables and model parameters. Regressive variables are those that can be influenced by process design or by a control strategy. With model parameters, there are typically no opportunities to directly influence their variability. In this paper, we propose a new method to perform sensitivity analysis through a partitioning of the input variables into these two groupings: regressive variables and model parameters. A sequential analysis is proposed, where first an sensitivity analysis is performed with respect to the regressive variables. In the second step, the uncertainty effects arising from the model parameters are included. This strategy can be quite useful in understanding process variability and in developing strategies to reduce overall variability. When this method is used for nonlinear models which are linear in the parameters, analytical solutions can be utilized. In the more general case of models that are nonlinear in both the regressive variables and the parameters, either first order approximations can be used, or numerically intensive methods must be used

Application of Sensitivity Analysis in Design of Integrated Building Concepts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heiselberg, Per; Brohus, Henrik; Hesselholt, Allan Tind

2007-01-01

analysis makes it possible to identify the most important parameters in relation to building performance and to focus design and optimization of integrated building concepts on these fewer, but most important parameters. The sensitivity analyses will typically be performed at a reasonably early stage...... the design requirements and objectives. In the design of integrated building concepts it is beneficial to identify the most important design parameters in order to more efficiently develop alternative design solutions or more efficiently perform an optimization of the building performance. The sensitivity...

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Navarro Jimenez, M; Le Maître, O P; Knio, O M

2016-12-28

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

KAUST Repository

Navarro, María

2016-12-26

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol’s decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

Automated sensitivity analysis of the radionuclide migration code UCBNE10.2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pin, F.G.; Worley, B.A.; Oblow, E.M.; Wright, R.Q.; Harper, W.V.

1985-01-01

The Salt Repository Project (SRP) of the US Department of Energy is performing ongoing performance assessment analyses for the eventual licensing of an underground high-level nuclear waste repository in salt. As part of these studies, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis play a major role in the identification of important parameters, and in the identification of specific data needs for site characterization. Oak Ridge National Laboratory has supported the SRP in this effort resulting in the development of an automated procedure for performing large-scale sensitivity analysis using computer calculus. GRESS, Gradient Enhanced Software System, is a pre-compiler that can process FORTRAN computer codes and add derivative taking capabilities to the normal calculated results. The GRESS code is described and applied to the code UCB-NE-10.2 which simulates the migration through an adsorptive medium of the radionuclide members of a decay chain. Conclusions are drawn relative to the applicability of GRESS for more general large-scale modeling sensitivity studies, and the role of such techniques in the overall SRP sensitivity/uncertainty program is detailed. 6 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs

MOVES regional level sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

The MOVES Regional Level Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to increase understanding of the operations of the MOVES Model in regional emissions analysis and to highlight the following: : the relative sensitivity of selected MOVES Model input paramet...

ADGEN: a system for automated sensitivity analysis of predictive models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pin, F.G.; Horwedel, J.E.; Oblow, E.M.; Lucius, J.L.

1986-09-01

A system that can automatically enhance computer codes with a sensitivity calculation capability is presented. With this new system, named ADGEN, rapid and cost-effective calculation of sensitivities can be performed in any FORTRAN code for all input data or parameters. The resulting sensitivities can be used in performance assessment studies related to licensing or interactions with the public to systematically and quantitatively prove the relative importance of each of the system parameters in calculating the final performance results. A general procedure calling for the systematic use of sensitivities in assessment studies is presented. The procedure can be used in modelling and model validation studies to avoid ''over modelling,'' in site characterization planning to avoid ''over collection of data,'' and in performance assessment to determine the uncertainties on the final calculated results. The added capability to formally perform the inverse problem, i.e., to determine the input data or parameters on which to focus additional research or analysis effort in order to improve the uncertainty of the final results, is also discussed

Demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis using the health and economic consequence model CRAC2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alpert, D.J.; Iman, R.L.; Johnson, J.D.; Helton, J.C.

1985-01-01

This paper summarizes a demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis performed on the reactor accident consequence model CRAC2. The study was performed with uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques compiled as part of the MELCOR program. The principal objectives of the study were: 1) to demonstrate the use of the uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques on a health and economic consequence model, 2) to test the computer models which implement the techniques, 3) to identify possible difficulties in performing such an analysis, and 4) to explore alternative means of analyzing, displaying, and describing the results. Demonstration of the applicability of the techniques was the motivation for performing this study; thus, the results should not be taken as a definitive uncertainty analysis of health and economic consequences. Nevertheless, significant insights on health and economic consequence analysis can be drawn from the results of this type of study. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), a modified Monte Carlo technique, was used in this study. LHS generates a multivariate input structure in which all the variables of interest are varied simultaneously and desired correlations between variables are preserved. LHS has been shown to produce estimates of output distribution functions that are comparable with results of larger random samples

Global sensitivity analysis applied to drying models for one or a population of granules

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortier, Severine Therese F. C.; Gernaey, Krist; Thomas, De Beer

2014-01-01

The development of mechanistic models for pharmaceutical processes is of increasing importance due to a noticeable shift toward continuous production in the industry. Sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool during the model building process. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA), exploring sensitiv......The development of mechanistic models for pharmaceutical processes is of increasing importance due to a noticeable shift toward continuous production in the industry. Sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool during the model building process. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA), exploring...... sensitivity in a broad parameter space, is performed to detect the most sensitive factors in two models, that is, one for drying of a single granule and one for the drying of a population of granules [using population balance model (PBM)], which was extended by including the gas velocity as extra input...... compared to our earlier work. beta(2) was found to be the most important factor for the single particle model which is useful information when performing model calibration. For the PBM-model, the granule radius and gas temperature were found to be most sensitive. The former indicates that granulator...

Overview of methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iman, R.L.; Helton, J.C.

1985-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is playing an increasingly important role in the nuclear reactor regulatory process. The assessment of uncertainties associated with PRA results is widely recognized as an important part of the analysis process. One of the major criticisms of the Reactor Safety Study was that its representation of uncertainty was inadequate. The desire for the capability to treat uncertainties with the MELCOR risk code being developed at Sandia National Laboratories is indicative of the current interest in this topic. However, as yet, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in the context of PRA is a relatively immature field. In this paper, available methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in a PRA are reviewed. This review first treats methods for use with individual components of a PRA and then considers how these methods could be combined in the performance of a complete PRA. In the context of this paper, the goal of uncertainty analysis is to measure the imprecision in PRA outcomes of interest, and the goal of sensitivity analysis is to identify the major contributors to this imprecision. There are a number of areas that must be considered in uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis for a PRA: (1) information, (2) systems analysis, (3) thermal-hydraulic phenomena/fission product behavior, (4) health and economic consequences, and (5) display of results. Each of these areas and the synthesis of them into a complete PRA are discussed

Nominal Range Sensitivity Analysis of peak radionuclide concentrations in randomly heterogeneous aquifers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cadini, F.; De Sanctis, J.; Cherubini, A.; Zio, E.; Riva, M.; Guadagnini, A.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Uncertainty quantification problem associated with the radionuclide migration. ► Groundwater transport processes simulated within a randomly heterogeneous aquifer. ► Development of an automatic sensitivity analysis for flow and transport parameters. ► Proposal of a Nominal Range Sensitivity Analysis approach. ► Analysis applied to the performance assessment of a nuclear waste repository. - Abstract: We consider the problem of quantification of uncertainty associated with radionuclide transport processes within a randomly heterogeneous aquifer system in the context of performance assessment of a near-surface radioactive waste repository. Radionuclide migration is simulated at the repository scale through a Monte Carlo scheme. The saturated groundwater flow and transport equations are then solved at the aquifer scale for the assessment of the expected radionuclide peak concentration at a location of interest. A procedure is presented to perform the sensitivity analysis of this target environmental variable to key parameters that characterize flow and transport processes in the subsurface. The proposed procedure is exemplified through an application to a realistic case study.

Sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models.

Science.gov (United States)

Zi, Z

2011-11-01

With the rising application of systems biology, sensitivity analysis methods have been widely applied to study the biological systems, including metabolic networks, signalling pathways and genetic circuits. Sensitivity analysis can provide valuable insights about how robust the biological responses are with respect to the changes of biological parameters and which model inputs are the key factors that affect the model outputs. In addition, sensitivity analysis is valuable for guiding experimental analysis, model reduction and parameter estimation. Local and global sensitivity analysis approaches are the two types of sensitivity analysis that are commonly applied in systems biology. Local sensitivity analysis is a classic method that studies the impact of small perturbations on the model outputs. On the other hand, global sensitivity analysis approaches have been applied to understand how the model outputs are affected by large variations of the model input parameters. In this review, the author introduces the basic concepts of sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models. Moreover, the author discusses the advantages and disadvantages of different sensitivity analysis methods, how to choose a proper sensitivity analysis approach, the available sensitivity analysis tools for systems biology models and the caveats in the interpretation of sensitivity analysis results.

Sensitivity Analysis Without Assumptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Peng; VanderWeele, Tyler J

2016-05-01

Unmeasured confounding may undermine the validity of causal inference with observational studies. Sensitivity analysis provides an attractive way to partially circumvent this issue by assessing the potential influence of unmeasured confounding on causal conclusions. However, previous sensitivity analysis approaches often make strong and untestable assumptions such as having an unmeasured confounder that is binary, or having no interaction between the effects of the exposure and the confounder on the outcome, or having only one unmeasured confounder. Without imposing any assumptions on the unmeasured confounder or confounders, we derive a bounding factor and a sharp inequality such that the sensitivity analysis parameters must satisfy the inequality if an unmeasured confounder is to explain away the observed effect estimate or reduce it to a particular level. Our approach is easy to implement and involves only two sensitivity parameters. Surprisingly, our bounding factor, which makes no simplifying assumptions, is no more conservative than a number of previous sensitivity analysis techniques that do make assumptions. Our new bounding factor implies not only the traditional Cornfield conditions that both the relative risk of the exposure on the confounder and that of the confounder on the outcome must satisfy but also a high threshold that the maximum of these relative risks must satisfy. Furthermore, this new bounding factor can be viewed as a measure of the strength of confounding between the exposure and the outcome induced by a confounder.

Sensitivity/uncertainty analysis of a borehole scenario comparing Latin Hypercube Sampling and deterministic sensitivity approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harper, W.V.; Gupta, S.K.

1983-10-01

A computer code was used to study steady-state flow for a hypothetical borehole scenario. The model consists of three coupled equations with only eight parameters and three dependent variables. This study focused on steady-state flow as the performance measure of interest. Two different approaches to sensitivity/uncertainty analysis were used on this code. One approach, based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), is a statistical sampling method, whereas, the second approach is based on the deterministic evaluation of sensitivities. The LHS technique is easy to apply and should work well for codes with a moderate number of parameters. Of deterministic techniques, the direct method is preferred when there are many performance measures of interest and a moderate number of parameters. The adjoint method is recommended when there are a limited number of performance measures and an unlimited number of parameters. This unlimited number of parameters capability can be extremely useful for finite element or finite difference codes with a large number of grid blocks. The Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation will use the technique most appropriate for an individual situation. For example, the adjoint method may be used to reduce the scope to a size that can be readily handled by a technique such as LHS. Other techniques for sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, e.g., kriging followed by conditional simulation, will be used also. 15 references, 4 figures, 9 tables

Global optimization and sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cacuci, D.G.

1990-01-01

A new direction for the analysis of nonlinear models of nuclear systems is suggested to overcome fundamental limitations of sensitivity analysis and optimization methods currently prevalent in nuclear engineering usage. This direction is toward a global analysis of the behavior of the respective system as its design parameters are allowed to vary over their respective design ranges. Presented is a methodology for global analysis that unifies and extends the current scopes of sensitivity analysis and optimization by identifying all the critical points (maxima, minima) and solution bifurcation points together with corresponding sensitivities at any design point of interest. The potential applicability of this methodology is illustrated with test problems involving multiple critical points and bifurcations and comprising both equality and inequality constraints

Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis: Description of techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Storlie, Curtis B.; Helton, Jon C.

2008-01-01

The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described: (i) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (ii) additive models, (iii) projection pursuit regression, and (iv) recursive partitioning regression. Then, in the second and concluding part of this presentation, the indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present

UMTS Common Channel Sensitivity Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pratas, Nuno; Rodrigues, António; Santos, Frederico

2006-01-01

and as such it is necessary that both channels be available across the cell radius. This requirement makes the choice of the transmission parameters a fundamental one. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis regarding the transmission parameters of two UMTS common channels: RACH and FACH. Optimization of these channels...... is performed and values for the key transmission parameters in both common channels are obtained. On RACH these parameters are the message to preamble offset, the initial SIR target and the preamble power step while on FACH it is the transmission power offset....

Sensitivity analysis of the nuclear data for MYRRHA reactor modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stankovskiy, Alexey; Van den Eynde, Gert; Cabellos, Oscar; Diez, Carlos J.; Schillebeeckx, Peter; Heyse, Jan

2014-01-01

A global sensitivity analysis of effective neutron multiplication factor k eff to the change of nuclear data library revealed that JEFF-3.2T2 neutron-induced evaluated data library produces closer results to ENDF/B-VII.1 than does JEFF-3.1.2. The analysis of contributions of individual evaluations into k eff sensitivity allowed establishing the priority list of nuclides for which uncertainties on nuclear data must be improved. Detailed sensitivity analysis has been performed for two nuclides from this list, 56 Fe and 238 Pu. The analysis was based on a detailed survey of the evaluations and experimental data. To track the origin of the differences in the evaluations and their impact on k eff , the reaction cross-sections and multiplicities in one evaluation have been substituted by the corresponding data from other evaluations. (authors)

An adaptive Mantel-Haenszel test for sensitivity analysis in observational studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenbaum, Paul R; Small, Dylan S

2017-06-01

In a sensitivity analysis in an observational study with a binary outcome, is it better to use all of the data or to focus on subgroups that are expected to experience the largest treatment effects? The answer depends on features of the data that may be difficult to anticipate, a trade-off between unknown effect-sizes and known sample sizes. We propose a sensitivity analysis for an adaptive test similar to the Mantel-Haenszel test. The adaptive test performs two highly correlated analyses, one focused analysis using a subgroup, one combined analysis using all of the data, correcting for multiple testing using the joint distribution of the two test statistics. Because the two component tests are highly correlated, this correction for multiple testing is small compared with, for instance, the Bonferroni inequality. The test has the maximum design sensitivity of two component tests. A simulation evaluates the power of a sensitivity analysis using the adaptive test. Two examples are presented. An R package, sensitivity2x2xk, implements the procedure. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Linear regression and sensitivity analysis in nuclear reactor design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, Akansha; Tsvetkov, Pavel V.; McClarren, Ryan G.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Presented a benchmark for the applicability of linear regression to complex systems. • Applied linear regression to a nuclear reactor power system. • Performed neutronics, thermal–hydraulics, and energy conversion using Brayton’s cycle for the design of a GCFBR. • Performed detailed sensitivity analysis to a set of parameters in a nuclear reactor power system. • Modeled and developed reactor design using MCNP, regression using R, and thermal–hydraulics in Java. - Abstract: The paper presents a general strategy applicable for sensitivity analysis (SA), and uncertainity quantification analysis (UA) of parameters related to a nuclear reactor design. This work also validates the use of linear regression (LR) for predictive analysis in a nuclear reactor design. The analysis helps to determine the parameters on which a LR model can be fit for predictive analysis. For those parameters, a regression surface is created based on trial data and predictions are made using this surface. A general strategy of SA to determine and identify the influential parameters those affect the operation of the reactor is mentioned. Identification of design parameters and validation of linearity assumption for the application of LR of reactor design based on a set of tests is performed. The testing methods used to determine the behavior of the parameters can be used as a general strategy for UA, and SA of nuclear reactor models, and thermal hydraulics calculations. A design of a gas cooled fast breeder reactor (GCFBR), with thermal–hydraulics, and energy transfer has been used for the demonstration of this method. MCNP6 is used to simulate the GCFBR design, and perform the necessary criticality calculations. Java is used to build and run input samples, and to extract data from the output files of MCNP6, and R is used to perform regression analysis and other multivariate variance, and analysis of the collinearity of data

Sensitivity assessment of fuel performance codes for LOCA accident scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abe, Alfredo; Gomes, Daniel; Silva, Antonio Teixeira e; Muniz, Rafael O.R. [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Giovedi, Claudia; Martins, Marcelo, E-mail: ayabe@ipen.br, E-mail: claudia.giovedi@labrisco.usp.br [Universidade de Sao Paulo (LABRISCO/USP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Lab. de Análise, Avaliação e Gerenciamento de Risco

2017-07-01

FRAPCON code predicts fuel rod performance in LWR (Light Water Reactor) by modeling fuel responses under normal operating conditions and anticipated operational occurrences; FRAPTRAN code is applied for fuel transient under fast transient and accident conditions. The codes are well known and applied for different purposes and one of the use is to address sensitivity analysis considering fuel design parameters associated to fabrication, moreover can address the effect of physical models bias. The objective of this work was to perform an assessment of fuel manufacturing parameters tolerances and fuel models bias using FRAPCON and FRAPTRAN codes for Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) scenario. The preliminary analysis considered direct approach taken into account most relevant manufacturing tolerances (lower and upper bounds) related to design parameters and physical models bias without considering their statistical distribution. The simulations were carried out using the data available in the open literature related to the series of LOCA experiment performed at the Halden reactor (specifically IFA-650.5). The manufacturing tolerances associated to design parameters considered in this paper were: enrichment, cladding thickness, pellet diameter, pellet density, and filling gas pressure. The physical models considered were: fuel thermal expansion, fission gas release, fuel swelling, irradiation creep, cladding thermal expansion, cladding corrosion, and cladding hydrogen pickup. The results obtained from sensitivity analysis addressed the impact of manufacturing tolerances and physical models in the fuel cladding burst time observed for the IFA-650.5 experiment. (author)

Sensitivity assessment of fuel performance codes for LOCA accident scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abe, Alfredo; Gomes, Daniel; Silva, Antonio Teixeira e; Muniz, Rafael O.R.; Giovedi, Claudia; Martins, Marcelo

2017-01-01

FRAPCON code predicts fuel rod performance in LWR (Light Water Reactor) by modeling fuel responses under normal operating conditions and anticipated operational occurrences; FRAPTRAN code is applied for fuel transient under fast transient and accident conditions. The codes are well known and applied for different purposes and one of the use is to address sensitivity analysis considering fuel design parameters associated to fabrication, moreover can address the effect of physical models bias. The objective of this work was to perform an assessment of fuel manufacturing parameters tolerances and fuel models bias using FRAPCON and FRAPTRAN codes for Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) scenario. The preliminary analysis considered direct approach taken into account most relevant manufacturing tolerances (lower and upper bounds) related to design parameters and physical models bias without considering their statistical distribution. The simulations were carried out using the data available in the open literature related to the series of LOCA experiment performed at the Halden reactor (specifically IFA-650.5). The manufacturing tolerances associated to design parameters considered in this paper were: enrichment, cladding thickness, pellet diameter, pellet density, and filling gas pressure. The physical models considered were: fuel thermal expansion, fission gas release, fuel swelling, irradiation creep, cladding thermal expansion, cladding corrosion, and cladding hydrogen pickup. The results obtained from sensitivity analysis addressed the impact of manufacturing tolerances and physical models in the fuel cladding burst time observed for the IFA-650.5 experiment. (author)

Chemical kinetic functional sensitivity analysis: Elementary sensitivities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Demiralp, M.; Rabitz, H.

1981-01-01

Sensitivity analysis is considered for kinetics problems defined in the space--time domain. This extends an earlier temporal Green's function method to handle calculations of elementary functional sensitivities deltau/sub i//deltaα/sub j/ where u/sub i/ is the ith species concentration and α/sub j/ is the jth system parameter. The system parameters include rate constants, diffusion coefficients, initial conditions, boundary conditions, or any other well-defined variables in the kinetic equations. These parameters are generally considered to be functions of position and/or time. Derivation of the governing equations for the sensitivities and the Green's funciton are presented. The physical interpretation of the Green's function and sensitivities is given along with a discussion of the relation of this work to earlier research

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of biochemical reaction systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hong-Xuan; Dempsey, William P; Goutsias, John

2009-09-07

Sensitivity analysis is an indispensable tool for studying the robustness and fragility properties of biochemical reaction systems as well as for designing optimal approaches for selective perturbation and intervention. Deterministic sensitivity analysis techniques, using derivatives of the system response, have been extensively used in the literature. However, these techniques suffer from several drawbacks, which must be carefully considered before using them in problems of systems biology. We develop here a probabilistic approach to sensitivity analysis of biochemical reaction systems. The proposed technique employs a biophysically derived model for parameter fluctuations and, by using a recently suggested variance-based approach to sensitivity analysis [Saltelli et al., Chem. Rev. (Washington, D.C.) 105, 2811 (2005)], it leads to a powerful sensitivity analysis methodology for biochemical reaction systems. The approach presented in this paper addresses many problems associated with derivative-based sensitivity analysis techniques. Most importantly, it produces thermodynamically consistent sensitivity analysis results, can easily accommodate appreciable parameter variations, and allows for systematic investigation of high-order interaction effects. By employing a computational model of the mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling cascade, we demonstrate that our approach is well suited for sensitivity analysis of biochemical reaction systems and can produce a wealth of information about the sensitivity properties of such systems. The price to be paid, however, is a substantial increase in computational complexity over derivative-based techniques, which must be effectively addressed in order to make the proposed approach to sensitivity analysis more practical.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis applied to a repository in rock salt

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Polle, A.N.

1996-12-01

This document describes the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis with UNCSAM, as applied to a repository in rock salt for the EVEREST project. UNCSAM is a dedicated software package for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, which was already used within the preceding PROSA project. The use of UNCSAM provides a flexible interface to EMOS ECN by substituting the sampled values in the various input files to be used by EMOS ECN ; the model calculations for this repository were performed with the EMOS ECN code. Preceding the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, a number of preparations has been carried out to facilitate EMOS ECN with the probabilistic input data. For post-processing the EMOS ECN results, the characteristic output signals were processed. For the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis with UNCSAM the stochastic input, i.e. sampled values, and the output for the various EMOS ECN runs have been analyzed. (orig.)

Interactive Building Design Space Exploration Using Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Østergård, Torben; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Maagaard, Steffen

2017-01-01

simulation inputs are most important and which have negligible influence on the model output. Popular sensitivity methods include the Morris method, variance-based methods (e.g. Sobol’s), and regression methods (e.g. SRC). However, all these methods only address one output at a time, which makes it difficult...... in combination with the interactive parallel coordinate plot (PCP). The latter is an effective tool to explore stochastic simulations and to find high-performing building designs. The proposed methods help decision makers to focus their attention to the most important design parameters when exploring......Monte Carlo simulations combined with regionalized sensitivity analysis provide the means to explore a vast, multivariate design space in building design. Typically, sensitivity analysis shows how the variability of model output relates to the uncertainties in models inputs. This reveals which...

Performance and sensitivity analysis of the generalized likelihood ratio method for failure detection. M.S. Thesis

Science.gov (United States)

Bueno, R. A.

1977-01-01

Results of the generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) technique for the detection of failures in aircraft application are presented, and its relationship to the properties of the Kalman-Bucy filter is examined. Under the assumption that the system is perfectly modeled, the detectability and distinguishability of four failure types are investigated by means of analysis and simulations. Detection of failures is found satisfactory, but problems in identifying correctly the mode of a failure may arise. These issues are closely examined as well as the sensitivity of GLR to modeling errors. The advantages and disadvantages of this technique are discussed, and various modifications are suggested to reduce its limitations in performance and computational complexity.

ADGEN: a system for automated sensitivity analysis of predictive models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pin, F.G.; Horwedel, J.E.; Oblow, E.M.; Lucius, J.L.

1987-01-01

A system that can automatically enhance computer codes with a sensitivity calculation capability is presented. With this new system, named ADGEN, rapid and cost-effective calculation of sensitivities can be performed in any FORTRAN code for all input data or parameters. The resulting sensitivities can be used in performance assessment studies related to licensing or interactions with the public to systematically and quantitatively prove the relative importance of each of the system parameters in calculating the final performance results. A general procedure calling for the systematic use of sensitivities in assessment studies is presented. The procedure can be used in modeling and model validation studies to avoid over modeling, in site characterization planning to avoid over collection of data, and in performance assessments to determine the uncertainties on the final calculated results. The added capability to formally perform the inverse problem, i.e., to determine the input data or parameters on which to focus to determine the input data or parameters on which to focus additional research or analysis effort in order to improve the uncertainty of the final results, is also discussed. 7 references, 2 figures

Sobol’ sensitivity analysis for stressor impacts on honeybee colonies

Science.gov (United States)

We employ Monte Carlo simulation and nonlinear sensitivity analysis techniques to describe the dynamics of a bee exposure model, VarroaPop. Daily simulations are performed of hive population trajectories, taking into account queen strength, foraging success, mite impacts, weather...

Sensitivity analysis of network DEA illustrated in branch banking

OpenAIRE

N. Avkiran

2010-01-01

Users of data envelopment analysis (DEA) often presume efficiency estimates to be robust. While traditional DEA has been exposed to various sensitivity studies, network DEA (NDEA) has so far escaped similar scrutiny. Thus, there is a need to investigate the sensitivity of NDEA, further compounded by the recent attention it has been receiving in literature. NDEA captures the underlying performance information found in a firm?s interacting divisions or sub-processes that would otherwise remain ...

Analytical sensitivity analysis of geometric errors in a three axis machine tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Sung Ryung; Yang, Seung Han

2012-01-01

In this paper, an analytical method is used to perform a sensitivity analysis of geometric errors in a three axis machine tool. First, an error synthesis model is constructed for evaluating the position volumetric error due to the geometric errors, and then an output variable is defined, such as the magnitude of the position volumetric error. Next, the global sensitivity analysis is executed using an analytical method. Finally, the sensitivity indices are calculated using the quantitative values of the geometric errors

Nuclear data sensitivity/uncertainty analysis for XT-ADS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugawara, Takanori; Sarotto, Massimo; Stankovskiy, Alexey; Van den Eynde, Gert

2011-01-01

Highlights: → The sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed to comprehend the reliability of the XT-ADS neutronic design. → The uncertainties deduced from the covariance data for the XT-ADS criticality were 0.94%, 1.9% and 1.1% by the SCALE 44-group, TENDL-2009 and JENDL-3.3 data, respectively. → When the target accuracy of 0.3%Δk for the criticality was considered, the uncertainties did not satisfy it. → To achieve this accuracy, the uncertainties should be improved by experiments under an adequate condition. - Abstract: The XT-ADS, an accelerator-driven system for an experimental demonstration, has been investigated in the framework of IP EUROTRANS FP6 project. In this study, the sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed to comprehend the reliability of the XT-ADS neutronic design. For the sensitivity analysis, it was found that the sensitivity coefficients were significantly different by changing the geometry models and calculation codes. For the uncertainty analysis, it was confirmed that the uncertainties deduced from the covariance data varied significantly by changing them. The uncertainties deduced from the covariance data for the XT-ADS criticality were 0.94%, 1.9% and 1.1% by the SCALE 44-group, TENDL-2009 and JENDL-3.3 data, respectively. When the target accuracy of 0.3%Δk for the criticality was considered, the uncertainties did not satisfy it. To achieve this accuracy, the uncertainties should be improved by experiments under an adequate condition.

Evaluation of treatment effects for high-performance dye-sensitized solar cells using equivalent circuit analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murayama, Masaki; Mori, Tatsuo

2006-01-01

Equivalent circuit analysis using a one-diode model was carried out as a simpler, more convenient method to evaluate the electric mechanism and to employ effective treatment of a dye-sensitized solar cell (DSC). Cells treated using acetic acid or 4,t-butylpyridine were measured under irradiation (0.1 W/m 2 , AM 1.5) to obtain current-voltage (I-V) curves. Cell performance and equivalent circuit parameters were calculated from the I-V curves. Evaluation based on residual factors was useful for better fitting of the equivalent circuit to the I-V curve. The diode factor value was often over two for high-performance DSCs. Acetic acid treatment was effective to increase the short-circuit current by decreasing the series resistance of cells. In contrast, 4,t-butylpyridine was effective to increase open-circuit voltage by increasing the cell shunt resistance. Previous explanations considered that acetic acid worked to decrease the internal resistance of the TiO 2 layer and butylpyridine worked to lower the back-electron-transfer from the TiO 2 to the electrolyte

Frequency domain performance analysis of nonlinearly controlled motion systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pavlov, A.V.; Wouw, van de N.; Pogromski, A.Y.; Heertjes, M.F.; Nijmeijer, H.

2007-01-01

At the heart of the performance analysis of linear motion control systems lie essential frequency domain characteristics such as sensitivity and complementary sensitivity functions. For a class of nonlinear motion control systems called convergent systems, generalized versions of these sensitivity

Sensitivity analysis of complex models: Coping with dynamic and static inputs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anstett-Collin, F.; Goffart, J.; Mara, T.; Denis-Vidal, L.

2015-01-01

In this paper, we address the issue of conducting a sensitivity analysis of complex models with both static and dynamic uncertain inputs. While several approaches have been proposed to compute the sensitivity indices of the static inputs (i.e. parameters), the one of the dynamic inputs (i.e. stochastic fields) have been rarely addressed. For this purpose, we first treat each dynamic as a Gaussian process. Then, the truncated Karhunen–Loève expansion of each dynamic input is performed. Such an expansion allows to generate independent Gaussian processes from a finite number of independent random variables. Given that a dynamic input is represented by a finite number of random variables, its variance-based sensitivity index is defined by the sensitivity index of this group of variables. Besides, an efficient sampling-based strategy is described to estimate the first-order indices of all the input factors by only using two input samples. The approach is applied to a building energy model, in order to assess the impact of the uncertainties of the material properties (static inputs) and the weather data (dynamic inputs) on the energy performance of a real low energy consumption house. - Highlights: • Sensitivity analysis of models with uncertain static and dynamic inputs is performed. • Karhunen–Loève (KL) decomposition of the spatio/temporal inputs is performed. • The influence of the dynamic inputs is studied through the modes of the KL expansion. • The proposed approach is applied to a building energy model. • Impact of weather data and material properties on performance of real house is given

Sensitivity analysis of LOFT L2-5 test calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prosek, Andrej

2014-01-01

The uncertainty quantification of best-estimate code predictions is typically accompanied by a sensitivity analysis, in which the influence of the individual contributors to uncertainty is determined. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the improved fast Fourier transform based method by signal mirroring (FFTBM-SM) for the sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity study was performed for the LOFT L2-5 test, which simulates the large break loss of coolant accident. There were 14 participants in the BEMUSE (Best Estimate Methods-Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation) programme, each performing a reference calculation and 15 sensitivity runs of the LOFT L2-5 test. The important input parameters varied were break area, gap conductivity, fuel conductivity, decay power etc. For the influence of input parameters on the calculated results the FFTBM-SM was used. The only difference between FFTBM-SM and original FFTBM is that in the FFTBM-SM the signals are symmetrized to eliminate the edge effect (the so called edge is the difference between the first and last data point of one period of the signal) in calculating average amplitude. It is very important to eliminate unphysical contribution to the average amplitude, which is used as a figure of merit for input parameter influence on output parameters. The idea is to use reference calculation as 'experimental signal', 'sensitivity run' as 'calculated signal', and average amplitude as figure of merit for sensitivity instead for code accuracy. The larger is the average amplitude the larger is the influence of varied input parameter. The results show that with FFTBM-SM the analyst can get good picture of the contribution of the parameter variation to the results. They show when the input parameters are influential and how big is this influence. FFTBM-SM could be also used to quantify the influence of several parameter variations on the results. However, the influential parameters could not be

Global sensitivity analysis in wastewater treatment plant model applications: Prioritizing sources of uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist; Neumann, Marc B.

2011-01-01

This study demonstrates the usefulness of global sensitivity analysis in wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) design to prioritize sources of uncertainty and quantify their impact on performance criteria. The study, which is performed with the Benchmark Simulation Model no. 1 plant design, complements...... insight into devising useful ways for reducing uncertainties in the plant performance. This information can help engineers design robust WWTP plants....... a previous paper on input uncertainty characterisation and propagation (Sin et al., 2009). A sampling-based sensitivity analysis is conducted to compute standardized regression coefficients. It was found that this method is able to decompose satisfactorily the variance of plant performance criteria (with R2...

Global sensitivity analysis of Alkali-Surfactant-Polymer enhanced oil recovery processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carrero, Enrique; Queipo, Nestor V.; Pintos, Salvador; Zerpa, Luis E. [Applied Computing Institute, Faculty of Engineering, University of Zulia, Zulia (Venezuela)

2007-08-15

After conventional waterflooding processes the residual oil in the reservoir remains as a discontinuous phase in the form of oil drops trapped by capillary forces and is likely to be around 70% of the original oil in place (OOIP). The EOR method so-called Alkaline-Surfactant-Polymer (ASP) flooding has been proved to be effective in reducing the oil residual saturation in laboratory experiments and field projects through reduction of interfacial tension and mobility ratio between oil and water phases. A critical step for the optimal design and control of ASP recovery processes is to find the relative contributions of design variables such as, slug size and chemical concentrations, in the variability of given performance measures (e.g., net present value, cumulative oil recovery), considering a heterogeneous and multiphase petroleum reservoir (sensitivity analysis). Previously reported works using reservoir numerical simulation have been limited to local sensitivity analyses because a global sensitivity analysis may require hundreds or even thousands of computationally expensive evaluations (field scale numerical simulations). To overcome this issue, a surrogate-based approach is suggested. Surrogate-based analysis/optimization makes reference to the idea of constructing an alternative fast model (surrogate) from numerical simulation data and using it for analysis/optimization purposes. This paper presents an efficient global sensitivity approach based on Sobol's method and multiple surrogates (i.e., Polynomial Regression, Kriging, Radial Base Functions and a Weighed Adaptive Model), with the multiple surrogates used to address the uncertainty in the analysis derived from plausible alternative surrogate-modeling schemes. The proposed approach was evaluated in the context of the global sensitivity analysis of a field scale Alkali-Surfactant-Polymer flooding process. The design variables and the performance measure in the ASP process were selected as slug size

Total sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for LWR pin-cells with improved UNICORN code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wan, Chenghui; Cao, Liangzhi; Wu, Hongchun; Shen, Wei

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A new model is established for the total sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. • The NR approximation applied in S&U analysis can be avoided by the new model. • Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is performed to PWR pin-cells by the new model. • The effects of the NR approximation for the PWR pin-cells are quantified. - Abstract: In this paper, improvements to the multigroup cross-section perturbation model have been proposed and applied in the self-developed UNICORN code, which is capable of performing the total sensitivity and total uncertainty analysis for the neutron-physics calculations by applying the direct numerical perturbation method and the statistical sampling method respectively. The narrow resonance (NR) approximation was applied in the multigroup cross-section perturbation model, implemented in UNICORN. As improvements to the NR approximation to refine the multigroup cross-section perturbation model, an ultrafine-group cross-section perturbation model has been established, in which the actual perturbations are applied to the ultrafine-group cross-section library and the reconstructions of the resonance cross sections are performed by solving the neutron slowing-down equation. The total sensitivity and total uncertainty analysis were then applied to the LWR pin-cells, using both the multigroup and the ultrafine-group cross-section perturbation models. The numerical results show that the NR approximation overestimates the relative sensitivity coefficients and the corresponding uncertainty results for the LWR pin-cells, and the effects of the NR approximation are significant for σ_(_n_,_γ_) and σ_(_n_,_e_l_a_s_) of "2"3"8U. Therefore, the effects of the NR approximation applied in the total sensitivity and total uncertainty analysis for the neutron-physics calculations of LWR should be taken into account.

Sensitivity Analysis of Weather Variables on Offsite Consequence Analysis Tools in South Korea and the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Min-Uk Kim

2018-05-01

Full Text Available We studied sensitive weather variables for consequence analysis, in the case of chemical leaks on the user side of offsite consequence analysis (OCA tools. We used OCA tools Korea Offsite Risk Assessment (KORA and Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA in South Korea and the United States, respectively. The chemicals used for this analysis were 28% ammonia (NH3, 35% hydrogen chloride (HCl, 50% hydrofluoric acid (HF, and 69% nitric acid (HNO3. The accident scenarios were based on leakage accidents in storage tanks. The weather variables were air temperature, wind speed, humidity, and atmospheric stability. Sensitivity analysis was performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS program for dummy regression analysis. Sensitivity analysis showed that impact distance was not sensitive to humidity. Impact distance was most sensitive to atmospheric stability, and was also more sensitive to air temperature than wind speed, according to both the KORA and ALOHA tools. Moreover, the weather variables were more sensitive in rural conditions than in urban conditions, with the ALOHA tool being more influenced by weather variables than the KORA tool. Therefore, if using the ALOHA tool instead of the KORA tool in rural conditions, users should be careful not to cause any differences in impact distance due to input errors of weather variables, with the most sensitive one being atmospheric stability.

Sensitivity Analysis of Weather Variables on Offsite Consequence Analysis Tools in South Korea and the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Min-Uk; Moon, Kyong Whan; Sohn, Jong-Ryeul; Byeon, Sang-Hoon

2018-05-18

We studied sensitive weather variables for consequence analysis, in the case of chemical leaks on the user side of offsite consequence analysis (OCA) tools. We used OCA tools Korea Offsite Risk Assessment (KORA) and Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA) in South Korea and the United States, respectively. The chemicals used for this analysis were 28% ammonia (NH₃), 35% hydrogen chloride (HCl), 50% hydrofluoric acid (HF), and 69% nitric acid (HNO₃). The accident scenarios were based on leakage accidents in storage tanks. The weather variables were air temperature, wind speed, humidity, and atmospheric stability. Sensitivity analysis was performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) program for dummy regression analysis. Sensitivity analysis showed that impact distance was not sensitive to humidity. Impact distance was most sensitive to atmospheric stability, and was also more sensitive to air temperature than wind speed, according to both the KORA and ALOHA tools. Moreover, the weather variables were more sensitive in rural conditions than in urban conditions, with the ALOHA tool being more influenced by weather variables than the KORA tool. Therefore, if using the ALOHA tool instead of the KORA tool in rural conditions, users should be careful not to cause any differences in impact distance due to input errors of weather variables, with the most sensitive one being atmospheric stability.

First order sensitivity analysis of flexible multibody systems using absolute nodal coordinate formulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pi Ting; Zhang Yunqing; Chen Liping

2012-01-01

Design sensitivity analysis of flexible multibody systems is important in optimizing the performance of mechanical systems. The choice of coordinates to describe the motion of multibody systems has a great influence on the efficiency and accuracy of both the dynamic and sensitivity analysis. In the flexible multibody system dynamics, both the floating frame of reference formulation (FFRF) and absolute nodal coordinate formulation (ANCF) are frequently utilized to describe flexibility, however, only the former has been used in design sensitivity analysis. In this article, ANCF, which has been recently developed and focuses on modeling of beams and plates in large deformation problems, is extended into design sensitivity analysis of flexible multibody systems. The Motion equations of a constrained flexible multibody system are expressed as a set of index-3 differential algebraic equations (DAEs), in which the element elastic forces are defined using nonlinear strain-displacement relations. Both the direct differentiation method and adjoint variable method are performed to do sensitivity analysis and the related dynamic and sensitivity equations are integrated with HHT-I3 algorithm. In this paper, a new method to deduce system sensitivity equations is proposed. With this approach, the system sensitivity equations are constructed by assembling the element sensitivity equations with the help of invariant matrices, which results in the advantage that the complex symbolic differentiation of the dynamic equations is avoided when the flexible multibody system model is changed. Besides that, the dynamic and sensitivity equations formed with the proposed method can be efficiently integrated using HHT-I3 method, which makes the efficiency of the direct differentiation method comparable to that of the adjoint variable method when the number of design variables is not extremely large. All these improvements greatly enhance the application value of the direct differentiation

Systemization of burnup sensitivity analysis code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tatsumi, Masahiro; Hyoudou, Hideaki

2004-02-01

To practical use of fact reactors, it is a very important subject to improve prediction accuracy for neutronic properties in LMFBR cores from the viewpoints of improvements on plant efficiency with rationally high performance cores and that on reliability and safety margins. A distinct improvement on accuracy in nuclear core design has been accomplished by development of adjusted nuclear library using the cross-section adjustment method, in which the results of critical experiments of JUPITER and so on are reflected. In the design of large LMFBR cores, however, it is important to accurately estimate not only neutronic characteristics, for example, reaction rate distribution and control rod worth but also burnup characteristics, for example, burnup reactivity loss, breeding ratio and so on. For this purpose, it is desired to improve prediction accuracy of burnup characteristics using the data widely obtained in actual core such as the experimental fast reactor core 'JOYO'. The analysis of burnup characteristics is needed to effectively use burnup characteristics data in the actual cores based on the cross-section adjustment method. So far, development of a analysis code for burnup sensitivity, SAGEP-BURN, has been done and confirmed its effectiveness. However, there is a problem that analysis sequence become inefficient because of a big burden to user due to complexity of the theory of burnup sensitivity and limitation of the system. It is also desired to rearrange the system for future revision since it is becoming difficult to implement new functionalities in the existing large system. It is not sufficient to unify each computational component for some reasons; computational sequence may be changed for each item being analyzed or for purpose such as interpretation of physical meaning. Therefore it is needed to systemize the current code for burnup sensitivity analysis with component blocks of functionality that can be divided or constructed on occasion. For this

Code development of total sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for reactor physics calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wan, C.; Cao, L.; Wu, H.; Zu, T.; Shen, W.

2015-01-01

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are essential parts for reactor system to perform risk and policy analysis. In this study, total sensitivity and corresponding uncertainty analysis for responses of neutronics calculations have been accomplished and developed the S&U analysis code named UNICORN. The UNICORN code can consider the implicit effects of multigroup cross sections on the responses. The UNICORN code has been applied to typical pin-cell case in this paper, and can be proved correct by comparison the results with those of the TSUNAMI-1D code. (author)

Code development of total sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for reactor physics calculations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wan, C.; Cao, L.; Wu, H.; Zu, T., E-mail: chenghuiwan@stu.xjtu.edu.cn, E-mail: caolz@mail.xjtu.edu.cn, E-mail: hongchun@mail.xjtu.edu.cn, E-mail: tiejun@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [Xi' an Jiaotong Univ., School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi' an (China); Shen, W., E-mail: Wei.Shen@cnsc-ccsn.gc.ca [Xi' an Jiaotong Univ., School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi' an (China); Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

2015-07-01

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are essential parts for reactor system to perform risk and policy analysis. In this study, total sensitivity and corresponding uncertainty analysis for responses of neutronics calculations have been accomplished and developed the S&U analysis code named UNICORN. The UNICORN code can consider the implicit effects of multigroup cross sections on the responses. The UNICORN code has been applied to typical pin-cell case in this paper, and can be proved correct by comparison the results with those of the TSUNAMI-1D code. (author)

Deterministic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for large-scale computer models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worley, B.A.; Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.; Maerker, R.E.; Horwedel, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.

1988-01-01

The fields of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis have traditionally been dominated by statistical techniques when large-scale modeling codes are being analyzed. These methods are able to estimate sensitivities, generate response surfaces, and estimate response probability distributions given the input parameter probability distributions. Because the statistical methods are computationally costly, they are usually applied only to problems with relatively small parameter sets. Deterministic methods, on the other hand, are very efficient and can handle large data sets, but generally require simpler models because of the considerable programming effort required for their implementation. The first part of this paper reports on the development and availability of two systems, GRESS and ADGEN, that make use of computer calculus compilers to automate the implementation of deterministic sensitivity analysis capability into existing computer models. This automation removes the traditional limitation of deterministic sensitivity methods. This second part of the paper describes a deterministic uncertainty analysis method (DUA) that uses derivative information as a basis to propagate parameter probability distributions to obtain result probability distributions. This paper is applicable to low-level radioactive waste disposal system performance assessment

Interference and Sensitivity Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

VanderWeele, Tyler J; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Halloran, M Elizabeth

2014-11-01

Causal inference with interference is a rapidly growing area. The literature has begun to relax the "no-interference" assumption that the treatment received by one individual does not affect the outcomes of other individuals. In this paper we briefly review the literature on causal inference in the presence of interference when treatments have been randomized. We then consider settings in which causal effects in the presence of interference are not identified, either because randomization alone does not suffice for identification, or because treatment is not randomized and there may be unmeasured confounders of the treatment-outcome relationship. We develop sensitivity analysis techniques for these settings. We describe several sensitivity analysis techniques for the infectiousness effect which, in a vaccine trial, captures the effect of the vaccine of one person on protecting a second person from infection even if the first is infected. We also develop two sensitivity analysis techniques for causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding which generalize analogous techniques when interference is absent. These two techniques for unmeasured confounding are compared and contrasted.

TEMAC, Top Event Sensitivity Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iman, R.L.; Shortencarier, M.J.

1988-01-01

1 - Description of program or function: TEMAC is designed to permit the user to easily estimate risk and to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analyses with a Boolean expression such as produced by the SETS computer program. SETS produces a mathematical representation of a fault tree used to model system unavailability. In the terminology of the TEMAC program, such a mathematical representation is referred to as a top event. The analysis of risk involves the estimation of the magnitude of risk, the sensitivity of risk estimates to base event probabilities and initiating event frequencies, and the quantification of the uncertainty in the risk estimates. 2 - Method of solution: Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses associated with top events involve mathematical operations on the corresponding Boolean expression for the top event, as well as repeated evaluations of the top event in a Monte Carlo fashion. TEMAC employs a general matrix approach which provides a convenient general form for Boolean expressions, is computationally efficient, and allows large problems to be analyzed. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Maxima of: 4000 cut sets, 500 events, 500 values in a Monte Carlo sample, 16 characters in an event name. These restrictions are implemented through the FORTRAN 77 PARAMATER statement

Seismic analysis of steam generator and parameter sensitivity studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qian Hao; Xu Dinggen; Yang Ren'an; Liang Xingyun

2013-01-01

Background: The steam generator (SG) serves as the primary means for removing the heat generated within the reactor core and is part of the reactor coolant system (RCS) pressure boundary. Purpose: Seismic analysis in required for SG, whose seismic category is Cat. I. Methods: The analysis model of SG is created with moisture separator assembly and tube bundle assembly herein. The seismic analysis is performed with RCS pipe and Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV). Results: The seismic stress results of SG are obtained. In addition, parameter sensitivities of seismic analysis results are studied, such as the effect of another SG, support, anti-vibration bars (AVBs), and so on. Our results show that seismic results are sensitive to support and AVBs setting. Conclusions: The guidance and comments on these parameters are summarized for equipment design and analysis, which should be focused on in future new type NPP SG's research and design. (authors)

A framework for 2-stage global sensitivity analysis of GastroPlus™ compartmental models.

Science.gov (United States)

Scherholz, Megerle L; Forder, James; Androulakis, Ioannis P

2018-04-01

Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are becoming an important consideration for regulatory submissions, requiring further evaluation to establish the need for global sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the benefits of an extensive analysis, global sensitivity was implemented for the GastroPlus™ model, a well-known commercially available platform, using four example drugs: acetaminophen, risperidone, atenolol, and furosemide. The capabilities of GastroPlus were expanded by developing an integrated framework to automate the GastroPlus graphical user interface with AutoIt and for execution of the sensitivity analysis in MATLAB ® . Global sensitivity analysis was performed in two stages using the Morris method to screen over 50 parameters for significant factors followed by quantitative assessment of variability using Sobol's sensitivity analysis. The 2-staged approach significantly reduced computational cost for the larger model without sacrificing interpretation of model behavior, showing that the sensitivity results were well aligned with the biopharmaceutical classification system. Both methods detected nonlinearities and parameter interactions that would have otherwise been missed by local approaches. Future work includes further exploration of how the input domain influences the calculated global sensitivity measures as well as extending the framework to consider a whole-body PBPK model.

Sensitivity analysis on the performances of a closed-loop Ground Source Heat Pump

Science.gov (United States)

Casasso, Alessandro; Sethi, Rajandrea

2014-05-01

Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHP) permit to achieve a significant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and the margins for economic saving of this technology are strongly correlated to the long-term sustainability of the exploitation of the heat stored in the soil. The operation of a GSHP over its lifetime should be therefore modelled considering realistic conditions, and a thorough characterization of the physical properties of the soil is essential to avoid large errors of prediction. In this work, a BHE modelling procedure with the finite-element code FEFLOW is presented. Starting from the governing equations of the heat transport in the soil around a GSHP and inside the BHE, the most important parameters are individuated and the adopted program settings are explained. A sensitivity analysis is then carried on both the design parameters of the heat exchanger, in order to understand the margins of improvement of a careful design and installation, and the physical properties of the soil, with the aim of quantifying the uncertainty induced by their variability. The relative importance of each parameter is therefore assessed by comparing the statistical distributions of the fluid temperatures and estimating the energy consumption of the heat pump, and practical conclusions are from these results about the site characterization, the design and the installation of a BHE. References Casasso A., Sethi R., 2014 Efficiency of closed loop geothermal heat pumps: A sensitivity analysis, Renewable Energy 62 (2014), pp. 737-746 Chiasson A.C., Rees S.J., Spitler J.D., 2000, A preliminary assessment of the effects of groundwater flow on closed-loop ground-source heat pump systems, ASHRAE Transactions 106 (2000), pp. 380-393 Delaleux F., Py X., Olives R., Dominguez A., 2012, Enhancement of geothermal borehole heat exchangers performances by improvement of bentonite grouts conductivity, Applied Thermal Engineering 33-34, pp. 92-99 Diao N., Li Q., Fang Z., 2004, Heat transfer in

Contributions to sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacques, J.

2005-12-01

Two topics are studied in this thesis: sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis. Global sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model studies how the output variables of this last react to variations of its inputs. The methods based on the study of the variance quantify the part of variance of the response of the model due to each input variable and each subset of input variables. The first subject of this thesis is the impact of a model uncertainty on results of a sensitivity analysis. Two particular forms of uncertainty are studied: that due to a change of the model of reference, and that due to the use of a simplified model with the place of the model of reference. A second problem was studied during this thesis, that of models with correlated inputs. Indeed, classical sensitivity indices not having significance (from an interpretation point of view) in the presence of correlation of the inputs, we propose a multidimensional approach consisting in expressing the sensitivity of the output of the model to groups of correlated variables. Applications in the field of nuclear engineering illustrate this work. Generalized discriminant analysis consists in classifying the individuals of a test sample in groups, by using information contained in a training sample, when these two samples do not come from the same population. This work extends existing methods in a Gaussian context to the case of binary data. An application in public health illustrates the utility of generalized discrimination models thus defined. (author)

Analysis on the effect of polysulfide electrolyte composition for higher performance of Si quantum dot-sensitized solar cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seo, Hyunwoong; Wang, Yuting; Uchida, Giichiro; Kamataki, Kunihiro; Itagaki, Naho; Koga, Kazunori; Shiratani, Masaharu

2013-01-01

Quantum dot-sensitized solar cell (QDSC) based on multiple exciton generation of QD has been expected to realize high efficiency. This work focused on Si QD instead of conventional QD materials because of their toxicity and scarcity. Si QDs were fabricated by multi-hollow discharge plasma chemical vapor deposition. General QDSCs use polysulfide electrolyte because it is suitable for stabilizing QDs and its redox reaction is the best as compared with other redox systems. The improvement of redox reaction which is one of the slowest reactions in the kinetic analysis is closely connected with the enhancement of performance. For the enhancement on the overall performance of Si QDSC, the performance dependence on electrolyte composition was investigated. The concentrations of Na 2 S and S were varied for the activation of redox reaction and KCl concentration was optimized for the improvement of electrolyte characteristics. Consequently, the best performance of Si QDSC was obtained with 1 M Na 2 S, 2 M S, and 0.4 M KCl polysulfide electrolyte

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of optimised preventive maintenance strategies for deteriorating infrastructure assets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daneshkhah, A.; Stocks, N.G.; Jeffrey, P.

2017-01-01

Efficient life-cycle management of civil infrastructure systems under continuous deterioration can be improved by studying the sensitivity of optimised preventive maintenance decisions with respect to changes in model parameters. Sensitivity analysis in maintenance optimisation problems is important because if the calculation of the cost of preventive maintenance strategies is not sufficiently robust, the use of the maintenance model can generate optimised maintenances strategies that are not cost-effective. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis methods (particularly variance based ones), only partially respond to this issue and their use is limited to evaluating the extent to which uncertainty in each input contributes to the overall output's variance. These methods do not take account of the decision-making problem in a straightforward manner. To address this issue, we use the concept of the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) to perform decision-informed sensitivity analysis: to identify the key parameters of the problem and quantify the value of learning about certain aspects of the life-cycle management of civil infrastructure system. This approach allows us to quantify the benefits of the maintenance strategies in terms of expected costs and in the light of accumulated information about the model parameters and aspects of the system, such as the ageing process. We use a Gamma process model to represent the uncertainty associated with asset deterioration, illustrating the use of EVPI to perform sensitivity analysis on the optimisation problem for age-based and condition-based preventive maintenance strategies. The evaluation of EVPI indices is computationally demanding and Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques would not be helpful. To overcome this computational difficulty, we approximate the EVPI indices using Gaussian process emulators. The implications of the worked numerical examples discussed in the context of analytical efficiency and organisational

Systemization of burnup sensitivity analysis code. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tatsumi, Masahiro; Hyoudou, Hideaki

2005-02-01

Towards the practical use of fast reactors, it is a very important subject to improve prediction accuracy for neutronic properties in LMFBR cores from the viewpoint of improvements on plant efficiency with rationally high performance cores and that on reliability and safety margins. A distinct improvement on accuracy in nuclear core design has been accomplished by the development of adjusted nuclear library using the cross-section adjustment method, in which the results of criticality experiments of JUPITER and so on are reflected. In the design of large LMFBR cores, however, it is important to accurately estimate not only neutronic characteristics, for example, reaction rate distribution and control rod worth but also burnup characteristics, for example, burnup reactivity loss, breeding ratio and so on. For this purpose, it is desired to improve prediction accuracy of burnup characteristics using the data widely obtained in actual core such as the experimental fast reactor 'JOYO'. The analysis of burnup characteristics is needed to effectively use burnup characteristics data in the actual cores based on the cross-section adjustment method. So far, a burnup sensitivity analysis code, SAGEP-BURN, has been developed and confirmed its effectiveness. However, there is a problem that analysis sequence become inefficient because of a big burden to users due to complexity of the theory of burnup sensitivity and limitation of the system. It is also desired to rearrange the system for future revision since it is becoming difficult to implement new functions in the existing large system. It is not sufficient to unify each computational component for the following reasons; the computational sequence may be changed for each item being analyzed or for purpose such as interpretation of physical meaning. Therefore, it is needed to systemize the current code for burnup sensitivity analysis with component blocks of functionality that can be divided or constructed on occasion. For

Methodology for sensitivity analysis, approximate analysis, and design optimization in CFD for multidisciplinary applications. [computational fluid dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Arthur C., III; Hou, Gene W.

1992-01-01

Fundamental equations of aerodynamic sensitivity analysis and approximate analysis for the two dimensional thin layer Navier-Stokes equations are reviewed, and special boundary condition considerations necessary to apply these equations to isolated lifting airfoils on 'C' and 'O' meshes are discussed in detail. An efficient strategy which is based on the finite element method and an elastic membrane representation of the computational domain is successfully tested, which circumvents the costly 'brute force' method of obtaining grid sensitivity derivatives, and is also useful in mesh regeneration. The issue of turbulence modeling is addressed in a preliminary study. Aerodynamic shape sensitivity derivatives are efficiently calculated, and their accuracy is validated on two viscous test problems, including: (1) internal flow through a double throat nozzle, and (2) external flow over a NACA 4-digit airfoil. An automated aerodynamic design optimization strategy is outlined which includes the use of a design optimization program, an aerodynamic flow analysis code, an aerodynamic sensitivity and approximate analysis code, and a mesh regeneration and grid sensitivity analysis code. Application of the optimization methodology to the two test problems in each case resulted in a new design having a significantly improved performance in the aerodynamic response of interest.

Design and Performance Analysis of Laser Displacement Sensor Based on Position Sensitive Detector (PSD)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, H X; Wang, X D; Ma, L Q; Cai, M Z; Cao, T Z

2006-01-01

By using PSD as sensitive element, and laser diode as emitting element, laser displacement sensor based on triangulation method has been widely used. From the point of view of design, sensor and its performance were studied. Two different sensor configurations were described. Determination of the dimension, sensing resolution and comparison of the two different configurations were presented. The factors affecting the performance of the laser displacement sensor were discussed and two methods, which can eliminate the affection of dark current and environment light, are proposed

SENSIT: a cross-section and design sensitivity and uncertainty analysis code. [In FORTRAN for CDC-7600, IBM 360

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gerstl, S.A.W.

1980-01-01

SENSIT computes the sensitivity and uncertainty of a calculated integral response (such as a dose rate) due to input cross sections and their uncertainties. Sensitivity profiles are computed for neutron and gamma-ray reaction cross sections of standard multigroup cross section sets and for secondary energy distributions (SEDs) of multigroup scattering matrices. In the design sensitivity mode, SENSIT computes changes in an integral response due to design changes and gives the appropriate sensitivity coefficients. Cross section uncertainty analyses are performed for three types of input data uncertainties: cross-section covariance matrices for pairs of multigroup reaction cross sections, spectral shape uncertainty parameters for secondary energy distributions (integral SED uncertainties), and covariance matrices for energy-dependent response functions. For all three types of data uncertainties SENSIT computes the resulting variance and estimated standard deviation in an integral response of interest, on the basis of generalized perturbation theory. SENSIT attempts to be more comprehensive than earlier sensitivity analysis codes, such as SWANLAKE.

Sensitivity of hydrological performance assessment analysis to variations in material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sobolik, S.R.; Ho, C.K.; Dunn, E. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Robey, T.H. [Spectra Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Cruz, W.T. [Univ. del Turabo, Gurabo (Puerto Rico)

1996-07-01

The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project is studying Yucca Mountain in southwestern Nevada as a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository. Site characterization includes surface- based and underground testing. Analyses have been performed to support the design of an Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and the design of the tests performed as part of the characterization process, in order to ascertain that they have minimal impact on the natural ability of the site to isolate waste. The information in this report pertains to sensitivity studies evaluating previous hydrological performance assessment analyses to variation in the material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models, and the implications of this sensitivity on previous recommendations supporting ESF design. This document contains information that has been used in preparing recommendations for Appendix I of the Exploratory Studies Facility Design Requirements document.

Sensitivity of hydrological performance assessment analysis to variations in material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sobolik, S.R.; Ho, C.K.; Dunn, E.; Robey, T.H.; Cruz, W.T.

1996-07-01

The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project is studying Yucca Mountain in southwestern Nevada as a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository. Site characterization includes surface- based and underground testing. Analyses have been performed to support the design of an Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and the design of the tests performed as part of the characterization process, in order to ascertain that they have minimal impact on the natural ability of the site to isolate waste. The information in this report pertains to sensitivity studies evaluating previous hydrological performance assessment analyses to variation in the material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models, and the implications of this sensitivity on previous recommendations supporting ESF design. This document contains information that has been used in preparing recommendations for Appendix I of the Exploratory Studies Facility Design Requirements document

Simple Sensitivity Analysis for Orion Guidance Navigation and Control

Science.gov (United States)

Pressburger, Tom; Hoelscher, Brian; Martin, Rodney; Sricharan, Kumar

2013-01-01

The performance of Orion flight software, especially its GNC software, is being analyzed by running Monte Carlo simulations of Orion spacecraft flights. The simulated performance is analyzed for conformance with flight requirements, expressed as performance constraints. Flight requirements include guidance (e.g. touchdown distance from target) and control (e.g., control saturation) as well as performance (e.g., heat load constraints). The Monte Carlo simulations disperse hundreds of simulation input variables, for everything from mass properties to date of launch. We describe in this paper a sensitivity analysis tool ("Critical Factors Tool" or CFT) developed to find the input variables or pairs of variables which by themselves significantly influence satisfaction of requirements or significantly affect key performance metrics (e.g., touchdown distance from target). Knowing these factors can inform robustness analysis, can inform where engineering resources are most needed, and could even affect operations. The contributions of this paper include the introduction of novel sensitivity measures, such as estimating success probability, and a technique for determining whether pairs of factors are interacting dependently or independently. The tool found that input variables such as moments, mass, thrust dispersions, and date of launch were found to be significant factors for success of various requirements. Examples are shown in this paper as well as a summary and physics discussion of EFT-1 driving factors that the tool found.

A Sensitivity Study for an Evaluation of Input Parameters Effect on a Preliminary Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rhee, Hyun-Me; Kim, Min Kyu; Choi, In-Kil [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Sheen, Dong-Hoon [Chonnam National University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

2014-10-15

The tsunami hazard analysis has been based on the seismic hazard analysis. The seismic hazard analysis has been performed by using the deterministic method and the probabilistic method. To consider the uncertainties in hazard analysis, the probabilistic method has been regarded as attractive approach. The various parameters and their weight are considered by using the logic tree approach in the probabilistic method. The uncertainties of parameters should be suggested by analyzing the sensitivity because the various parameters are used in the hazard analysis. To apply the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis, the preliminary study for the Ulchin NPP site had been performed. The information on the fault sources which was published by the Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ) had been used in the preliminary study. The tsunami propagation was simulated by using the TSUNAMI{sub 1}.0 which was developed by Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization (JNES). The wave parameters have been estimated from the result of tsunami simulation. In this study, the sensitivity analysis for the fault sources which were selected in the previous studies has been performed. To analyze the effect of the parameters, the sensitivity analysis for the E3 fault source which was published by AESJ was performed. The effect of the recurrence interval, the potential maximum magnitude, and the beta were suggested by the sensitivity analysis results. Level of annual exceedance probability has been affected by the recurrence interval.. Wave heights have been influenced by the potential maximum magnitude and the beta. In the future, the sensitivity analysis for the all fault sources in the western part of Japan which were published AESJ would be performed.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of NET/ITER shielding blankets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hogenbirk, A.; Gruppelaar, H.; Verschuur, K.A.

1990-09-01

Results are presented of sensitivity and uncertainty calculations based upon the European fusion file (EFF-1). The effect of uncertainties in Fe, Cr and Ni cross sections on the nuclear heating in the coils of a NET/ITER shielding blanket has been studied. The analysis has been performed for the total cross section as well as partial cross sections. The correct expression for the sensitivity profile was used, including the gain term. The resulting uncertainty in the nuclear heating lies between 10 and 20 per cent. (author). 18 refs.; 2 figs.; 2 tabs

A Sensitivity Analysis On The Springback Behavior Of The Unconstrained Bending Problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meinders, T.; Konter, A.W.A.; Meijers, S.E.; Atzema, E.H.; Kappert, H.

2005-01-01

Sheet metal forming software is commonly used in the automotive and sheet metal sectors to support the design stage. However, the ability of the currently available software to accurately predict springback is limited. A sensitivity analysis of the springback behavior of a simple product is performed to gain more knowledge into the various factors contributing to the predictability of springback. The sensitivity analysis comprises both numerical and physical aspects and the most important results are reported in this paper

Association between Pressure Pain Sensitivity, Performance stability and Overall Performance in Olympic Sailors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Faber, Jens Oscar; Ballegaard, Søren

2016-01-01

Background: During sports competitions, the performance of athletes may be negatively affected by persistent stress and autonomic nervous system (ANS) dysfunction, both of which can be assessed by pressure pain sensitivity (PPS) at the chest bone. Objectives: To test the association between PPS......: r > 0.70; p stress and ANS dysfunction as assessed by PPS on one side and performance stability and overall performance on the other side. Keywords Autonomic nervous system dysfunction; Pressure pain sensitivity; Sports...... guide for persistent stress and ANS dysfunction. Performance stability, overall performance and PPS measure were assessed at three intervals. Results: At baseline, the median PPS was 83, the performance stability was inferior to the mean top 10 competitors, and the overall performance was rank eight...

'PSA-SPN' - A Parameter Sensitivity Analysis Method Using Stochastic Petri Nets: Application to a Production Line System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Labadi, Karim; Saggadi, Samira; Amodeo, Lionel

2009-01-01

The dynamic behavior of a discrete event dynamic system can be significantly affected for some uncertain changes in its decision parameters. So, parameter sensitivity analysis would be a useful way in studying the effects of these changes on the system performance. In the past, the sensitivity analysis approaches are frequently based on simulation models. In recent years, formal methods based on stochastic process including Markov process are proposed in the literature. In this paper, we are interested in the parameter sensitivity analysis of discrete event dynamic systems by using stochastic Petri nets models as a tool for modelling and performance evaluation. A sensitivity analysis approach based on stochastic Petri nets, called PSA-SPN method, will be proposed with an application to a production line system.

Trial application of PRATOOL: Performance of sensitivity studies on service water systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gregg, R.E.; Wood, S.T.

1991-03-01

PRATOOL is a computer program developed to supplement the Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) computer program. It is intended to be a tool for performing PRA sensitivity analyses. This will allow a PRA's results to be easily reevaluated to show its sensitivity to changing parameter (system, component type, basic event, etc.) values (i.e., failure rates). This report documents a trial application of PRATOOL. It evaluates the sensitivity of core damage frequency to service water system availability at several nuclear power plants. For the purpose of this trail application of PRATOOL, service water system sensitivity studies were performed using the results of several NUREG- 1150 PRAs. These plants were chosen because their PRAs were already loaded into the IRRAS data base. Therefore, they are readily available for this type of study. PRATOOL contains a small subset of the functions provided by IRRAS. The user can select sets of parameters that will act as the bases for sensitivity analyses. Depending on the PRA used, the parameters selected can include: systems, component types, trains, locations, failure modes, and basic events. It will also perform and AND-ing operation on selected parameters. This allows the user define any number of possible combinations of parameters. The results of the four sensitivity studies would tend to indicate that the SWS availability is important for BWRs but unimportant for PWRs. Both BWRs showed significant increases in CDF if their SWS failure rates are allowed to increase. From the results of the four sensitivity studies, it is interesting to note that no improvements made to any of the SWSs' failure rates would result in a significant decrease on CDF. 10 figs

Object-sensitive Type Analysis of PHP

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van der Hoek, Henk Erik; Hage, J

2015-01-01

In this paper we develop an object-sensitive type analysis for PHP, based on an extension of the notion of monotone frameworks to deal with the dynamic aspects of PHP, and following the framework of Smaragdakis et al. for object-sensitive analysis. We consider a number of instantiations of the

Comprehensive analysis of transport aircraft flight performance

Science.gov (United States)

Filippone, Antonio

2008-04-01

This paper reviews the state-of-the art in comprehensive performance codes for fixed-wing aircraft. The importance of system analysis in flight performance is discussed. The paper highlights the role of aerodynamics, propulsion, flight mechanics, aeroacoustics, flight operation, numerical optimisation, stochastic methods and numerical analysis. The latter discipline is used to investigate the sensitivities of the sub-systems to uncertainties in critical state parameters or functional parameters. The paper discusses critically the data used for performance analysis, and the areas where progress is required. Comprehensive analysis codes can be used for mission fuel planning, envelope exploration, competition analysis, a wide variety of environmental studies, marketing analysis, aircraft certification and conceptual aircraft design. A comprehensive program that uses the multi-disciplinary approach for transport aircraft is presented. The model includes a geometry deck, a separate engine input deck with the main parameters, a database of engine performance from an independent simulation, and an operational deck. The comprehensive code has modules for deriving the geometry from bitmap files, an aerodynamics model for all flight conditions, a flight mechanics model for flight envelopes and mission analysis, an aircraft noise model and engine emissions. The model is validated at different levels. Validation of the aerodynamic model is done against the scale models DLR-F4 and F6. A general model analysis and flight envelope exploration are shown for the Boeing B-777-300 with GE-90 turbofan engines with intermediate passenger capacity (394 passengers in 2 classes). Validation of the flight model is done by sensitivity analysis on the wetted area (or profile drag), on the specific air range, the brake-release gross weight and the aircraft noise. A variety of results is shown, including specific air range charts, take-off weight-altitude charts, payload-range performance

A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław

2018-01-01

In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.

Ethical sensitivity in professional practice: concept analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Weaver, Kathryn; Morse, Janice; Mitcham, Carl

2008-06-01

This paper is a report of a concept analysis of ethical sensitivity. Ethical sensitivity enables nurses and other professionals to respond morally to the suffering and vulnerability of those receiving professional care and services. Because of its significance to nursing and other professional practices, ethical sensitivity deserves more focused analysis. A criteria-based method oriented toward pragmatic utility guided the analysis of 200 papers and books from the fields of nursing, medicine, psychology, dentistry, clinical ethics, theology, education, law, accounting or business, journalism, philosophy, political and social sciences and women's studies. This literature spanned 1970 to 2006 and was sorted by discipline and concept dimensions and examined for concept structure and use across various contexts. The analysis was completed in September 2007. Ethical sensitivity in professional practice develops in contexts of uncertainty, client suffering and vulnerability, and through relationships characterized by receptivity, responsiveness and courage on the part of professionals. Essential attributes of ethical sensitivity are identified as moral perception, affectivity and dividing loyalties. Outcomes include integrity preserving decision-making, comfort and well-being, learning and professional transcendence. Our findings promote ethical sensitivity as a type of practical wisdom that pursues client comfort and professional satisfaction with care delivery. The analysis and resulting model offers an inclusive view of ethical sensitivity that addresses some of the limitations with prior conceptualizations.

Multitarget global sensitivity analysis of n-butanol combustion.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Dingyu D Y; Davis, Michael J; Skodje, Rex T

2013-05-02

A model for the combustion of butanol is studied using a recently developed theoretical method for the systematic improvement of the kinetic mechanism. The butanol mechanism includes 1446 reactions, and we demonstrate that it is straightforward and computationally feasible to implement a full global sensitivity analysis incorporating all the reactions. In addition, we extend our previous analysis of ignition-delay targets to include species targets. The combination of species and ignition targets leads to multitarget global sensitivity analysis, which allows for a more complete mechanism validation procedure than we previously implemented. The inclusion of species sensitivity analysis allows for a direct comparison between reaction pathway analysis and global sensitivity analysis.

Global sensitivity analysis using a Gaussian Radial Basis Function metamodel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Zeping; Wang, Donghui; Okolo N, Patrick; Hu, Fan; Zhang, Weihua

2016-01-01

Sensitivity analysis plays an important role in exploring the actual impact of adjustable parameters on response variables. Amongst the wide range of documented studies on sensitivity measures and analysis, Sobol' indices have received greater portion of attention due to the fact that they can provide accurate information for most models. In this paper, a novel analytical expression to compute the Sobol' indices is derived by introducing a method which uses the Gaussian Radial Basis Function to build metamodels of computationally expensive computer codes. Performance of the proposed method is validated against various analytical functions and also a structural simulation scenario. Results demonstrate that the proposed method is an efficient approach, requiring a computational cost of one to two orders of magnitude less when compared to the traditional Quasi Monte Carlo-based evaluation of Sobol' indices. - Highlights: • RBF based sensitivity analysis method is proposed. • Sobol' decomposition of Gaussian RBF metamodel is obtained. • Sobol' indices of Gaussian RBF metamodel are derived based on the decomposition. • The efficiency of proposed method is validated by some numerical examples.

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis incorporating the bootstrap: an example comparing treatments for the eradication of Helicobacter pylori.

Science.gov (United States)

Pasta, D J; Taylor, J L; Henning, J M

1999-01-01

Decision-analytic models are frequently used to evaluate the relative costs and benefits of alternative therapeutic strategies for health care. Various types of sensitivity analysis are used to evaluate the uncertainty inherent in the models. Although probabilistic sensitivity analysis is more difficult theoretically and computationally, the results can be much more powerful and useful than deterministic sensitivity analysis. The authors show how a Monte Carlo simulation can be implemented using standard software to perform a probabilistic sensitivity analysis incorporating the bootstrap. The method is applied to a decision-analytic model evaluating the cost-effectiveness of Helicobacter pylori eradication. The necessary steps are straightforward and are described in detail. The use of the bootstrap avoids certain difficulties encountered with theoretical distributions. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis provided insights into the decision-analytic model beyond the traditional base-case and deterministic sensitivity analyses and should become the standard method for assessing sensitivity.

Significance of uncertainties derived from settling tank model structure and parameters on predicting WWTP performance - A global sensitivity analysis study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ramin, Elham; Sin, Gürkan; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

2011-01-01

Uncertainty derived from one of the process models – such as one-dimensional secondary settling tank (SST) models – can impact the output of the other process models, e.g., biokinetic (ASM1), as well as the integrated wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) models. The model structure and parameter...... and from the last aerobic bioreactor upstream to the SST (Garrett/hydraulic method). For model structure uncertainty, two one-dimensional secondary settling tank (1-D SST) models are assessed, including a first-order model (the widely used Takács-model), in which the feasibility of using measured...... uncertainty of settler models can therefore propagate, and add to the uncertainties in prediction of any plant performance criteria. Here we present an assessment of the relative significance of secondary settling model performance in WWTP simulations. We perform a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) based...

Sensitivity Analysis of a Physiochemical Interaction Model ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this analysis, we will study the sensitivity analysis due to a variation of the initial condition and experimental time. These results which we have not seen elsewhere are analysed and discussed quantitatively. Keywords: Passivation Rate, Sensitivity Analysis, ODE23, ODE45 J. Appl. Sci. Environ. Manage. June, 2012, Vol.

Sensitivity analysis of recovery efficiency in high-temperature aquifer thermal energy storage with single well

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jeon, Jun-Seo; Lee, Seung-Rae; Pasquinelli, Lisa

2015-01-01

., it is getting more attention as these issues are gradually alleviated. In this study, a sensitivity analysis of recovery efficiency in two cases of HT-ATES system with a single well is conducted to select key parameters. For a fractional factorial design used to choose input parameters with uniformity...... with Smoothly Clopped Absolute Deviation Penalty, is utilized. Finally, the sensitivity analysis is performed based on the variation decomposition. According to the result of sensitivity analysis, the most important input variables are selected and confirmed to consider the interaction effects for each case...

Performance Assessment Modeling and Sensitivity Analyses of Generic Disposal System Concepts.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sevougian, S. David; Freeze, Geoffrey A.; Gardner, William Payton; Hammond, Glenn Edward; Mariner, Paul

2014-09-01

directly, rather than through simplified abstractions. It also a llows for complex representations of the source term, e.g., the explicit representation of many individual waste packages (i.e., meter - scale detail of an entire waste emplacement drift). This report fulfills the Generic Disposal System Analysis Work Packa ge Level 3 Milestone - Performance Assessment Modeling and Sensitivity Analyses of Generic Disposal System Concepts (M 3 FT - 1 4 SN08080 3 2 ).

Biosphere dose conversion Factor Importance and Sensitivity Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

M. Wasiolek

2004-01-01

This report presents importance and sensitivity analysis for the environmental radiation model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN). ERMYN is a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. This analysis concerns the output of the model, biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater, and the volcanic ash exposure scenarios. It identifies important processes and parameters that influence the BDCF values and distributions, enhances understanding of the relative importance of the physical and environmental processes on the outcome of the biosphere model, includes a detailed pathway analysis for key radionuclides, and evaluates the appropriateness of selected parameter values that are not site-specific or have large uncertainty

Sensitivity analysis for hydrology and pesticide supply towards the river in SWAT

Science.gov (United States)

Holvoet, K.; van Griensven, A.; Seuntjens, P.; Vanrolleghem, P. A.

The dynamic behaviour of pesticides in river systems strongly depends on varying climatological conditions and agricultural management practices. To describe this behaviour at the river-basin scale, integrated hydrological and water quality models are needed. A crucial step in understanding the various processes determining pesticide fate is to perform a sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis for hydrology and pesticide supply in SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) will provide useful support for the development of a reliable hydrological model and will give insight in which parameters are most sensitive concerning pesticide supply towards rivers. The study was performed on the Nil catchment in Belgium. In this study we utilised an LH-OAT sensitivity analysis. The LH-OAT method combines the One-factor-At-a-Time (OAT) design and Latin Hypercube (LH) sampling by taking the Latin Hypercube samples as initial points for an OAT design. By means of the LH-OAT sensitivity analysis, the dominant hydrological parameters were determined and a reduction of the number of model parameters was performed. Dominant hydrological parameters were the curve number (CN2), the surface runoff lag (surlag), the recharge to deep aquifer (rchrg_dp) and the threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer (GWQMN). Next, the selected parameters were estimated by manual calibration. Hereby, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency improved from an initial value of -22.4 to +0.53. In the second part, sensitivity analyses were performed to provide insight in which parameters or model inputs contribute most to variance in pesticide output. The results of this study show that for the Nil catchment, hydrologic parameters are dominant in controlling pesticide predictions. The other parameter that affects pesticide concentrations in surface water is ‘apfp_pest’, which meaning was changed into a parameter that controls direct losses to the river system (e.g., through the clean up of spray

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on probabilistic safety assessment of an experimental facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgazzi, L.

2000-01-01

The aim of this work is to perform an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on the probabilistic safety assessment of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF), in order to assess the effect on the final risk values of the uncertainties associated with the generic data used for the initiating events and component reliability and to identify the key quantities contributing to this uncertainty. The analysis is conducted on the expected frequency calculated for the accident sequences, defined through the event tree (ET) modeling. This is in order to increment credit to the ET model quantification, to calculate frequency distributions for the occurrence of events and, consequently, to assess if sequences have been correctly selected on the probability standpoint and finally to verify the fulfillment of the safety conditions. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are performed using respectively Monte Carlo sampling and an importance parameter technique. (author)

A sensitivity analysis of regional and small watershed hydrologic models

Science.gov (United States)

Ambaruch, R.; Salomonson, V. V.; Simmons, J. W.

1975-01-01

Continuous simulation models of the hydrologic behavior of watersheds are important tools in several practical applications such as hydroelectric power planning, navigation, and flood control. Several recent studies have addressed the feasibility of using remote earth observations as sources of input data for hydrologic models. The objective of the study reported here was to determine how accurately remotely sensed measurements must be to provide inputs to hydrologic models of watersheds, within the tolerances needed for acceptably accurate synthesis of streamflow by the models. The study objective was achieved by performing a series of sensitivity analyses using continuous simulation models of three watersheds. The sensitivity analysis showed quantitatively how variations in each of 46 model inputs and parameters affect simulation accuracy with respect to five different performance indices.

Sensitivity Analysis of Viscoelastic Structures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.M.G. de Lima

2006-01-01

Full Text Available In the context of control of sound and vibration of mechanical systems, the use of viscoelastic materials has been regarded as a convenient strategy in many types of industrial applications. Numerical models based on finite element discretization have been frequently used in the analysis and design of complex structural systems incorporating viscoelastic materials. Such models must account for the typical dependence of the viscoelastic characteristics on operational and environmental parameters, such as frequency and temperature. In many applications, including optimal design and model updating, sensitivity analysis based on numerical models is a very usefull tool. In this paper, the formulation of first-order sensitivity analysis of complex frequency response functions is developed for plates treated with passive constraining damping layers, considering geometrical characteristics, such as the thicknesses of the multi-layer components, as design variables. Also, the sensitivity of the frequency response functions with respect to temperature is introduced. As an example, response derivatives are calculated for a three-layer sandwich plate and the results obtained are compared with first-order finite-difference approximations.

Personalization of models with many model parameters: an efficient sensitivity analysis approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Donders, W P; Huberts, W; van de Vosse, F N; Delhaas, T

2015-10-01

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis are indispensable for patient-specific applications of models that enhance diagnosis or aid decision-making. Variance-based sensitivity analysis methods, which apportion each fraction of the output uncertainty (variance) to the effects of individual input parameters or their interactions, are considered the gold standard. The variance portions are called the Sobol sensitivity indices and can be estimated by a Monte Carlo (MC) approach (e.g., Saltelli's method [1]) or by employing a metamodel (e.g., the (generalized) polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE) [2, 3]). All these methods require a large number of model evaluations when estimating the Sobol sensitivity indices for models with many parameters [4]. To reduce the computational cost, we introduce a two-step approach. In the first step, a subset of important parameters is identified for each output of interest using the screening method of Morris [5]. In the second step, a quantitative variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed using gPCE. Efficient sampling strategies are introduced to minimize the number of model runs required to obtain the sensitivity indices for models considering multiple outputs. The approach is tested using a model that was developed for predicting post-operative flows after creation of a vascular access for renal failure patients. We compare the sensitivity indices obtained with the novel two-step approach with those obtained from a reference analysis that applies Saltelli's MC method. The two-step approach was found to yield accurate estimates of the sensitivity indices at two orders of magnitude lower computational cost. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Extended forward sensitivity analysis of one-dimensional isothermal flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, M.; Zhao, H.

2013-01-01

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification is an important part of nuclear safety analysis. In this work, forward sensitivity analysis is used to compute solution sensitivities on 1-D fluid flow equations typical of those found in system level codes. Time step sensitivity analysis is included as a method for determining the accumulated error from time discretization. The ability to quantify numerical error arising from the time discretization is a unique and important feature of this method. By knowing the relative sensitivity of time step with other physical parameters, the simulation is allowed to run at optimized time steps without affecting the confidence of the physical parameter sensitivity results. The time step forward sensitivity analysis method can also replace the traditional time step convergence studies that are a key part of code verification with much less computational cost. One well-defined benchmark problem with manufactured solutions is utilized to verify the method; another test isothermal flow problem is used to demonstrate the extended forward sensitivity analysis process. Through these sample problems, the paper shows the feasibility and potential of using the forward sensitivity analysis method to quantify uncertainty in input parameters and time step size for a 1-D system-level thermal-hydraulic safety code. (authors)

Two-dimensional cross-section sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for fusion reactor blankets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Embrechts, M.J.

1982-02-01

A two-dimensional sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the heating of the TF coil for the FED (fusion engineering device) blanket was performed. The uncertainties calculated are of the same order of magnitude as those resulting from a one-dimensional analysis. The largest uncertainties were caused by the cross section uncertainties for chromium

Reservoir Performance Under Future Climate For Basins With Different Hydrologic Sensitivities

Science.gov (United States)

Mateus, M. C.; Tullos, D. D.

2013-12-01

In addition to long-standing uncertainties related to variable inflows and market price of power, reservoir operators face a number of new uncertainties related to hydrologic nonstationarity, changing environmental regulations, and rapidly growing water and energy demands. This study investigates the impact, sensitivity, and uncertainty of changing hydrology on hydrosystem performance across different hydrogeologic settings. We evaluate the performance of reservoirs in the Santiam River basin, including a case study in the North Santiam Basin, with high permeability and extensive groundwater storage, and the South Santiam Basin, with low permeability, little groundwater storage and rapid runoff response. The modeling objective is to address the following study questions: (1) for the two hydrologic regimes, how does the flood management, water supply, and environmental performance of current reservoir operations change under future 2.5, 50 and 97.5 percentile streamflow projections; and (2) how much change in inflow is required to initiate a failure to meet downstream minimum or maximum flows in the future. We couple global climate model results with a rainfall-runoff model and a formal Bayesian uncertainty analysis to simulate future inflow hydrographs as inputs to a reservoir operations model. To evaluate reservoir performance under a changing climate, we calculate reservoir refill reliability, changes in flood frequency, and reservoir time and volumetric reliability of meeting minimum spring and summer flow target. Reservoir performance under future hydrology appears to vary with hydrogeology. We find higher sensitivity to floods for the North Santiam Basin and higher sensitivity to minimum flow targets for the South Santiam Basin. Higher uncertainty is related with basins with a more complex hydrologeology. Results from model simulations contribute to understanding of the reliability and vulnerability of reservoirs to a changing climate.

Algorithm sensitivity analysis and parameter tuning for tissue image segmentation pipelines

Science.gov (United States)

Kurç, Tahsin M.; Taveira, Luís F. R.; Melo, Alba C. M. A.; Gao, Yi; Kong, Jun; Saltz, Joel H.

2017-01-01

Abstract Motivation: Sensitivity analysis and parameter tuning are important processes in large-scale image analysis. They are very costly because the image analysis workflows are required to be executed several times to systematically correlate output variations with parameter changes or to tune parameters. An integrated solution with minimum user interaction that uses effective methodologies and high performance computing is required to scale these studies to large imaging datasets and expensive analysis workflows. Results: The experiments with two segmentation workflows show that the proposed approach can (i) quickly identify and prune parameters that are non-influential; (ii) search a small fraction (about 100 points) of the parameter search space with billions to trillions of points and improve the quality of segmentation results (Dice and Jaccard metrics) by as much as 1.42× compared to the results from the default parameters; (iii) attain good scalability on a high performance cluster with several effective optimizations. Conclusions: Our work demonstrates the feasibility of performing sensitivity analyses, parameter studies and auto-tuning with large datasets. The proposed framework can enable the quantification of error estimations and output variations in image segmentation pipelines. Availability and Implementation: Source code: https://github.com/SBU-BMI/region-templates/. Contact: teodoro@unb.br Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:28062445

Development and Sensitivity Analysis of a Fully Kinetic Model of Sequential Reductive Dechlorination in Groundwater

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Malaguerra, Flavio; Chambon, Julie Claire Claudia; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup

2011-01-01

experiments of complete trichloroethene (TCE) degradation in natural sediments. Global sensitivity analysis was performed using the Morris method and Sobol sensitivity indices to identify the most influential model parameters. Results show that the sulfate concentration and fermentation kinetics are the most...

Sensitivity analysis of the Two Geometry Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wichers, V.A.

1993-09-01

The Two Geometry Method (TGM) was designed specifically for the verification of the uranium enrichment of low enriched UF 6 gas in the presence of uranium deposits on the pipe walls. Complications can arise if the TGM is applied under extreme conditions, such as deposits larger than several times the gas activity, small pipe diameters less than 40 mm and low pressures less than 150 Pa. This report presents a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of the TGM. The impact of the various sources of uncertainty on the performance of the method is discussed. The application to a practical case is based on worst case conditions with regards to the measurement conditions, and on realistic conditions with respect to the false alarm probability and the non detection probability. Monte Carlo calculations were used to evaluate the sensitivity for sources of uncertainty which are experimentally inaccessible. (orig.)

Indicators of Ceriodaphnia dubia chronic toxicity test performance and sensitivity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosebrock, M.M.; Bedwell, N.J.; Ausley, L.W. [North Carolina Division of Environmental Management, Raleigh, NC (United States)

1994-12-31

The North Carolina Division of Environmental Management has begun evaluation of the sensitivity of test results used for measuring chronic whole effluent toxicity in North Carolina wastewater discharges. Approximately 67% of 565 facilities required to monitor toxicity by an NPDES permit perform a Ceriodaphnia dubia chronic, single effluent concentration (pass/fail) analysis. Data from valid Ceriodaphnia dubia chronic pass/fail tests performed by approximately 20 certified biological laboratories and submitted by North Carolina NPDES permittees were recorded beginning January 1992. Control and treatment reproduction data from over 2,500 tests submitted since 1992 were analyzed to determine the minimum significant difference (MSD) at a 99% confidence level for each test and the percent reduction from the control mean that the MSD represents (%MSD) for each certified laboratory. Initial results for the 20 laboratories indicate that the average intralaboratory percent MSD ranges 12.72% (n = 367) to 34.91% (n = 7) with an average of 23.08%. Additionally, over 3,800 tests were analyzed to determine the coefficient of variation (CV) for control reproduction for each test and the average for each certified biological laboratory. Preliminary review indicates that average interlaboratory control reproduction CV values range from 10.59% (n = 367) to 31.08% (n = 572) with a mean of 20.35%. The statistics investigated are indicators of intra/interlaboratory performance and sensitivity of Ceriodaphnia chronic toxicity analyses.

A sensitivity analysis of the WIPP disposal room model: Phase 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Labreche, D.A.; Beikmann, M.A. [RE/SPEC, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Osnes, J.D. [RE/SPEC, Inc., Rapid City, SD (United States); Butcher, B.M. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1995-07-01

The WIPP Disposal Room Model (DRM) is a numerical model with three major components constitutive models of TRU waste, crushed salt backfill, and intact halite -- and several secondary components, including air gap elements, slidelines, and assumptions on symmetry and geometry. A sensitivity analysis of the Disposal Room Model was initiated on two of the three major components (waste and backfill models) and on several secondary components as a group. The immediate goal of this component sensitivity analysis (Phase I) was to sort (rank) model parameters in terms of their relative importance to model response so that a Monte Carlo analysis on a reduced set of DRM parameters could be performed under Phase II. The goal of the Phase II analysis will be to develop a probabilistic definition of a disposal room porosity surface (porosity, gas volume, time) that could be used in WIPP Performance Assessment analyses. This report documents a literature survey which quantifies the relative importance of the secondary room components to room closure, a differential analysis of the creep consolidation model and definition of a follow-up Monte Carlo analysis of the model, and an analysis and refitting of the waste component data on which a volumetric plasticity model of TRU drum waste is based. A summary, evaluation of progress, and recommendations for future work conclude the report.

Photovoltaic Performance of ZnO Nanosheets Solar Cell Sensitized with Beta-Substituted Porphyrin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arumugam Mahesh

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The photoanode of dye-sensitized solar cell (DSSC was fabricated using two-dimensional ZnO nanosheets (2D ZnO NSs sensitized with beta-substituted porphyrins photosensitizer, and its photovoltaic performance in solid-state DSSC with TiO2 nanotubes (TiO2 TNs modified poly (ethylene oxide (PEO polymer electrolyte was studied. The ZnO NSs were synthesized through hydrothermal method and were characterized through high-resolution scanning electron microscopy (HRSEM, diffused reflectance spectra (DRS, photoluminescence spectra (PL, and X-ray diffraction (XRD analysis. The crystallinity of the polymer electrolytes was investigated using X-ray diffraction analysis. The photovoltaic performance of the beta-substituted porphyrins sensitized solar cells was evaluated under standard AM1.5G simulated illumination (100 mW cm−2. The efficiency of energy conversion from solar to electrical due to 2D ZnO NSs based DSSCs is 0.13%, which is about 1.6 times higher than that of the control DSSC using ZnO nanoparticles (ZnO NPs as photoanode (0.08%, when TiO2 NTs fillers modified PEO electrolyte was incorporated in the DSSCs. The current-voltage (- and photocurrent-time (- curves proved stable with effective collection of electrons, when the 2D ZnO nanostructured photoanode was introduced in the solid-state DSSC.

Sensitivity enhancement by chromatographic peak concentration with ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy for minor impurity analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tokunaga, Takashi; Akagi, Ken-Ichi; Okamoto, Masahiko

2017-07-28

High performance liquid chromatography can be coupled with nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to give a powerful analytical method known as liquid chromatography-nuclear magnetic resonance (LC-NMR) spectroscopy, which can be used to determine the chemical structures of the components of complex mixtures. However, intrinsic limitations in the sensitivity of NMR spectroscopy have restricted the scope of this procedure, and resolving these limitations remains a critical problem for analysis. In this study, we coupled ultra-high performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC) with NMR to give a simple and versatile analytical method with higher sensitivity than conventional LC-NMR. UHPLC separation enabled the concentration of individual peaks to give a volume similar to that of the NMR flow cell, thereby maximizing the sensitivity to the theoretical upper limit. The UHPLC concentration of compound peaks present at typical impurity levels (5.0-13.1 nmol) in a mixture led to at most three-fold increase in the signal-to-noise ratio compared with LC-NMR. Furthermore, we demonstrated the use of UHPLC-NMR for obtaining structural information of a minor impurity in a reaction mixture in actual laboratory-scale development of a synthetic process. Using UHPLC-NMR, the experimental run times for chromatography and NMR were greatly reduced compared with LC-NMR. UHPLC-NMR successfully overcomes the difficulties associated with analyses of minor components in a complex mixture by LC-NMR, which are problematic even when an ultra-high field magnet and cryogenic probe are used. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity Analysis to Control the Far-Wake Unsteadiness Behind Turbines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Esteban Ferrer

2017-10-01

Full Text Available We explore the stability of wakes arising from 2D flow actuators based on linear momentum actuator disc theory. We use stability and sensitivity analysis (using adjoints to show that the wake stability is controlled by the Reynolds number and the thrust force (or flow resistance applied through the turbine. First, we report that decreasing the thrust force has a comparable stabilising effect to a decrease in Reynolds numbers (based on the turbine diameter. Second, a discrete sensitivity analysis identifies two regions for suitable placement of flow control forcing, one close to the turbines and one far downstream. Third, we show that adding a localised control force, in the regions identified by the sensitivity analysis, stabilises the wake. Particularly, locating the control forcing close to the turbines results in an enhanced stabilisation such that the wake remains steady for significantly higher Reynolds numbers or turbine thrusts. The analysis of the controlled flow fields confirms that modifying the velocity gradient close to the turbine is more efficient to stabilise the wake than controlling the wake far downstream. The analysis is performed for the first flow bifurcation (at low Reynolds numbers which serves as a foundation of the stabilization technique but the control strategy is tested at higher Reynolds numbers in the final section of the paper, showing enhanced stability for a turbulent flow case.

Sensitivity analysis of MIDAS tests using SPACE code. Effect of nodalization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eom, Shin; Oh, Seung-Jong; Diab, Aya

2018-01-01

The nodalization sensitivity analysis for the ECCS (Emergency Core Cooling System) bypass phe�nomena was performed using the SPACE (Safety and Performance Analysis CodE) thermal hydraulic analysis computer code. The results of MIDAS (Multi-�dimensional Investigation in Downcomer Annulus Simulation) test were used. The MIDAS test was conducted by the KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) for the performance evaluation of the ECC (Emergency Core Cooling) bypass phenomenon in the DVI (Direct Vessel Injection) system. The main aim of this study is to examine the sensitivity of the SPACE code results to the number of thermal hydraulic channels used to model the annulus region in the MIDAS experiment. The numerical model involves three nodalization cases (4, 6, and 12 channels) and the result show that the effect of nodalization on the bypass fraction for the high steam flow rate MIDAS tests is minimal. For computational efficiency, a 4 channel representation is recommended for the SPACE code nodalization. For the low steam flow rate tests, the SPACE code over-�predicts the bypass fraction irrespective of the nodalization finesse. The over-�prediction at low steam flow may be attributed to the difficulty to accurately represent the flow regime in the vicinity of the broken cold leg.

Sensitivity analysis of MIDAS tests using SPACE code. Effect of nodalization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eom, Shin; Oh, Seung-Jong; Diab, Aya [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School (KINGS), Ulsan (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of NPP Engineering

2018-02-15

The nodalization sensitivity analysis for the ECCS (Emergency Core Cooling System) bypass phe�nomena was performed using the SPACE (Safety and Performance Analysis CodE) thermal hydraulic analysis computer code. The results of MIDAS (Multi-�dimensional Investigation in Downcomer Annulus Simulation) test were used. The MIDAS test was conducted by the KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) for the performance evaluation of the ECC (Emergency Core Cooling) bypass phenomenon in the DVI (Direct Vessel Injection) system. The main aim of this study is to examine the sensitivity of the SPACE code results to the number of thermal hydraulic channels used to model the annulus region in the MIDAS experiment. The numerical model involves three nodalization cases (4, 6, and 12 channels) and the result show that the effect of nodalization on the bypass fraction for the high steam flow rate MIDAS tests is minimal. For computational efficiency, a 4 channel representation is recommended for the SPACE code nodalization. For the low steam flow rate tests, the SPACE code over-�predicts the bypass fraction irrespective of the nodalization finesse. The over-�prediction at low steam flow may be attributed to the difficulty to accurately represent the flow regime in the vicinity of the broken cold leg.

Therapeutic Implications from Sensitivity Analysis of Tumor Angiogenesis Models

Science.gov (United States)

Poleszczuk, Jan; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Enderling, Heiko

2015-01-01

Anti-angiogenic cancer treatments induce tumor starvation and regression by targeting the tumor vasculature that delivers oxygen and nutrients. Mathematical models prove valuable tools to study the proof-of-concept, efficacy and underlying mechanisms of such treatment approaches. The effects of parameter value uncertainties for two models of tumor development under angiogenic signaling and anti-angiogenic treatment are studied. Data fitting is performed to compare predictions of both models and to obtain nominal parameter values for sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the success of different cancer treatments depends on tumor size and tumor intrinsic parameters. In particular, we show that tumors with ample vascular support can be successfully targeted with conventional cytotoxic treatments. On the other hand, tumors with curtailed vascular support are not limited by their growth rate and therefore interruption of neovascularization emerges as the most promising treatment target. PMID:25785600

Manufacturing error sensitivity analysis and optimal design method of cable-network antenna structures

Science.gov (United States)

Zong, Yali; Hu, Naigang; Duan, Baoyan; Yang, Guigeng; Cao, Hongjun; Xu, Wanye

2016-03-01

Inevitable manufacturing errors and inconsistency between assumed and actual boundary conditions can affect the shape precision and cable tensions of a cable-network antenna, and even result in failure of the structure in service. In this paper, an analytical sensitivity analysis method of the shape precision and cable tensions with respect to the parameters carrying uncertainty was studied. Based on the sensitivity analysis, an optimal design procedure was proposed to alleviate the effects of the parameters that carry uncertainty. The validity of the calculated sensitivities is examined by those computed by a finite difference method. Comparison with a traditional design method shows that the presented design procedure can remarkably reduce the influence of the uncertainties on the antenna performance. Moreover, the results suggest that especially slender front net cables, thick tension ties, relatively slender boundary cables and high tension level can improve the ability of cable-network antenna structures to resist the effects of the uncertainties on the antenna performance.

3.8 Proposed approach to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis in the next PA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flach, Greg [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Wohlwend, Jen [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

2017-10-02

This memorandum builds upon Section 3.8 of SRNL (2016) and Flach (2017) by defining key error analysis, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis concepts and terms, in preparation for the next E-Area Performance Assessment (WSRC 2008) revision.

Application of Monte Carlo filtering method in regional sensitivity analysis of AASHTOWare Pavement ME design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhong Wu

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Since AASHTO released the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG for public review in 2004, many highway research agencies have performed sensitivity analyses using the prototype MEPDG design software. The information provided by the sensitivity analysis is essential for design engineers to better understand the MEPDG design models and to identify important input parameters for pavement design. In literature, different studies have been carried out based on either local or global sensitivity analysis methods, and sensitivity indices have been proposed for ranking the importance of the input parameters. In this paper, a regional sensitivity analysis method, Monte Carlo filtering (MCF, is presented. The MCF method maintains many advantages of the global sensitivity analysis, while focusing on the regional sensitivity of the MEPDG model near the design criteria rather than the entire problem domain. It is shown that the information obtained from the MCF method is more helpful and accurate in guiding design engineers in pavement design practices. To demonstrate the proposed regional sensitivity method, a typical three-layer flexible pavement structure was analyzed at input level 3. A detailed procedure to generate Monte Carlo runs using the AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design software was provided. The results in the example show that the sensitivity ranking of the input parameters in this study reasonably matches with that in a previous study under a global sensitivity analysis. Based on the analysis results, the strengths, practical issues, and applications of the MCF method were further discussed.

Sensitivity analysis of Monju using ERANOS with JENDL-4.0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tamagno, P.; Van Rooijen, W. F. G.; Takeda, T.; Konomura, M.

2012-01-01

This paper deals with sensitivity analysis using JENDL-4.0 nuclear data applied to the Monju reactor. In 2010 the Japan Atomic Energy Agency - JAEA - released a new set of nuclear data: JENDL-4.0. This new evaluation is expected to contain improved data on actinides and covariance matrices. Covariance matrices are a key point in quantification of uncertainties due to basic nuclear data. For sensitivity analysis, the well-established ERANOS [1] code was chosen because of its integrated modules that allow users to perform a sensitivity analysis of complex reactor geometries. A JENDL-4.0 cross-section library is not available for ERANOS. Therefore a cross-section library had to be made from the original nuclear data set, available as ENDF formatted files. This is achieved by using the following codes: NJOY, CALENDF, MERGE and GECCO in order to create a library for the ECCO cell code (part of ERANOS). In order to make sure of the accuracy of the new ECCO library, two benchmark experiments have been analyzed: the MZA and MZB cores of the MOZART program measured at the ZEBRA facility in the UK. These were chosen due to their similarity to the Monju core. Using the JENDL-4.0 ECCO library we have analyzed the criticality of Monju during the restart in 2010. We have obtained good agreement with the measured criticality. Perturbation calculations have been performed between JENDL-3.3 and JENDL-4.0 based models. The isotopes 239 Pu, 238 U, 241 Am and 241 Pu account for a major part of observed differences. (authors)

Sensitivity analysis of a complex, proposed geologic waste disposal system using the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu Yichi; Mohanty, Sitakanta

2001-01-01

The Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) method has been used to perform a sensitivity analysis of a computer model developed for conducting total system performance assessment of the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA. The computer model has a large number of random input parameters with assigned probability density functions, which may or may not be uniform, for representing data uncertainty. The FAST method, which was previously applied to models with parameters represented by the uniform probability distribution function only, has been modified to be applied to models with nonuniform probability distribution functions. Using an example problem with a small input parameter set, several aspects of the FAST method, such as the effects of integer frequency sets and random phase shifts in the functional transformations, and the number of discrete sampling points (equivalent to the number of model executions) on the ranking of the input parameters have been investigated. Because the number of input parameters of the computer model under investigation is too large to be handled by the FAST method, less important input parameters were first screened out using the Morris method. The FAST method was then used to rank the remaining parameters. The validity of the parameter ranking by the FAST method was verified using the conditional complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) of the output. The CCDF results revealed that the introduction of random phase shifts into the functional transformations, proposed by previous investigators to disrupt the repetitiveness of search curves, does not necessarily improve the sensitivity analysis results because it destroys the orthogonality of the trigonometric functions, which is required for Fourier analysis

Sensitivity Analysis of ProSEDS (Propulsive Small Expendable Deployer System) Data Communication System

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Nohpill; Reagan, Shawn; Franks, Greg; Jones, William G.

1999-01-01

This paper discusses analytical approaches to evaluating performance of Spacecraft On-Board Computing systems, thereby ultimately achieving a reliable spacecraft data communications systems. The sensitivity analysis approach of memory system on the ProSEDS (Propulsive Small Expendable Deployer System) as a part of its data communication system will be investigated. Also, general issues and possible approaches to reliable Spacecraft On-Board Interconnection Network and Processor Array will be shown. The performance issues of a spacecraft on-board computing systems such as sensitivity, throughput, delay and reliability will be introduced and discussed.

Simulating occupant behaviour and energy performance of dwellings : A sensitivity analysis of presence patterns in different dwelling types

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bedir, M.; Harputlugil, G.U.

2011-01-01

Influence of occupant behaviour on the energy performance of dwellings is an emerging research topic: Not only the amount of studies is insufficient, but also they provide contradictory results. The aim of this study is to reveal the sensitivity of dwelling energy performance to the presence of

Code development for eigenvalue total sensitivity analysis and total uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wan, Chenghui; Cao, Liangzhi; Wu, Hongchun; Zu, Tiejun; Shen, Wei

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We develop a new code for total sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. • The implicit effects of cross sections can be considered. • The results of our code agree well with TSUNAMI-1D. • Detailed analysis for origins of implicit effects is performed. - Abstract: The uncertainties of multigroup cross sections notably impact eigenvalue of neutron-transport equation. We report on a total sensitivity analysis and total uncertainty analysis code named UNICORN that has been developed by applying the direct numerical perturbation method and statistical sampling method. In order to consider the contributions of various basic cross sections and the implicit effects which are indirect results of multigroup cross sections through resonance self-shielding calculation, an improved multigroup cross-section perturbation model is developed. The DRAGON 4.0 code, with application of WIMSD-4 format library, is used by UNICORN to carry out the resonance self-shielding and neutron-transport calculations. In addition, the bootstrap technique has been applied to the statistical sampling method in UNICORN to obtain much steadier and more reliable uncertainty results. The UNICORN code has been verified against TSUNAMI-1D by analyzing the case of TMI-1 pin-cell. The numerical results show that the total uncertainty of eigenvalue caused by cross sections can reach up to be about 0.72%. Therefore the contributions of the basic cross sections and their implicit effects are not negligible

Sensitivity Analysis of Evacuation Speed in Hypothetical NPP Accident by Earthquake

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Sung-yeop; Lim, Ho-Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

Effective emergency response in emergency situation of nuclear power plant (NPP) can make consequences be different therefore it is regarded important when establishing an emergency response plan and assessing the risk of hypothetical NPP accident. Situation of emergency response can be totally changed when NPP accident caused by earthquake or tsunami is considered due to the failure of roads and buildings by the disaster. In this study evacuation speed has been focused among above various factors and reasonable evacuation speed in earthquake scenario has been investigated. Finally, sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Evacuation scenario can be entirely different in the situation of seismic hazard and the sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Various references were investigated and earthquake evacuation model has been developed considering that evacuees may convert their evacuation method from using a vehicle to walking when they face the difficulty of using a vehicle due to intense traffic jam, failure of buildings and roads, and etc. The population dose within 5 km / 30 km have been found to be increased in earthquake situation due to decreased evacuation speed and become 1.5 - 2 times in the severest earthquake evacuation scenario set up in this study. It is not agreed that using same emergency response model which is used for normal evacuation situations when performing level 3 probabilistic safety assessment for earthquake and tsunami event. Investigation of data and sensitivity analysis for constructing differentiated emergency response model in the event of seismic hazard has been carried out in this study.

Sensitivity Analysis of Evacuation Speed in Hypothetical NPP Accident by Earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sung-yeop; Lim, Ho-Gon

2016-01-01

Effective emergency response in emergency situation of nuclear power plant (NPP) can make consequences be different therefore it is regarded important when establishing an emergency response plan and assessing the risk of hypothetical NPP accident. Situation of emergency response can be totally changed when NPP accident caused by earthquake or tsunami is considered due to the failure of roads and buildings by the disaster. In this study evacuation speed has been focused among above various factors and reasonable evacuation speed in earthquake scenario has been investigated. Finally, sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Evacuation scenario can be entirely different in the situation of seismic hazard and the sensitivity analysis of evacuation speed in hypothetical NPP accident by earthquake has been performed in this study. Various references were investigated and earthquake evacuation model has been developed considering that evacuees may convert their evacuation method from using a vehicle to walking when they face the difficulty of using a vehicle due to intense traffic jam, failure of buildings and roads, and etc. The population dose within 5 km / 30 km have been found to be increased in earthquake situation due to decreased evacuation speed and become 1.5 - 2 times in the severest earthquake evacuation scenario set up in this study. It is not agreed that using same emergency response model which is used for normal evacuation situations when performing level 3 probabilistic safety assessment for earthquake and tsunami event. Investigation of data and sensitivity analysis for constructing differentiated emergency response model in the event of seismic hazard has been carried out in this study

Numerical model analysis of thermal performance for a dye-sensitized solar cell module

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Shuanghong; Huang, Yang; Weng, Jian; Fan, Xiaqin; Mo, Lie; Pan, Bin; Dai, Songyuan

2013-01-01

Temperature is one of the major factors that influence a dye-sensitized solar cell's (DSC's) photovoltaic efficiency. Temperature control is very important when solar cell modules are designed. In the present paper, a numerical model of a DSC module is built for the simulation of the solar cell's temperature. In this model, energy balance and three methods of heat transfer (conduction, convection, and radiation) are taken into account, and the simulation results are consistent with the experimental results. The influence of wind speeds and interfacial thermal resistance on the temperature inside the DSC modules is discussed in detail based on theoretical analysis. (paper)

Mixed kernel function support vector regression for global sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Kai; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wei, Yuhao; Shi, Yan; Zhou, Yicheng

2017-11-01

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) plays an important role in exploring the respective effects of input variables on an assigned output response. Amongst the wide sensitivity analyses in literature, the Sobol indices have attracted much attention since they can provide accurate information for most models. In this paper, a mixed kernel function (MKF) based support vector regression (SVR) model is employed to evaluate the Sobol indices at low computational cost. By the proposed derivation, the estimation of the Sobol indices can be obtained by post-processing the coefficients of the SVR meta-model. The MKF is constituted by the orthogonal polynomials kernel function and Gaussian radial basis kernel function, thus the MKF possesses both the global characteristic advantage of the polynomials kernel function and the local characteristic advantage of the Gaussian radial basis kernel function. The proposed approach is suitable for high-dimensional and non-linear problems. Performance of the proposed approach is validated by various analytical functions and compared with the popular polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). Results demonstrate that the proposed approach is an efficient method for global sensitivity analysis.

Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of an Eulerian large-scale air pollution model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dimov, I.; Georgieva, R.; Ostromsky, Tz.

2012-01-01

Variance-based approaches for global sensitivity analysis have been applied and analyzed to study the sensitivity of air pollutant concentrations according to variations of rates of chemical reactions. The Unified Danish Eulerian Model has been used as a mathematical model simulating a remote transport of air pollutants. Various Monte Carlo algorithms for numerical integration have been applied to compute Sobol's global sensitivity indices. A newly developed Monte Carlo algorithm based on Sobol's quasi-random points MCA-MSS has been applied for numerical integration. It has been compared with some existing approaches, namely Sobol's ΛΠ τ sequences, an adaptive Monte Carlo algorithm, the plain Monte Carlo algorithm, as well as, eFAST and Sobol's sensitivity approaches both implemented in SIMLAB software. The analysis and numerical results show advantages of MCA-MSS for relatively small sensitivity indices in terms of accuracy and efficiency. Practical guidelines on the estimation of Sobol's global sensitivity indices in the presence of computational difficulties have been provided. - Highlights: ► Variance-based global sensitivity analysis is performed for the air pollution model UNI-DEM. ► The main effect of input parameters dominates over higher-order interactions. ► Ozone concentrations are influenced mostly by variability of three chemical reactions rates. ► The newly developed MCA-MSS for multidimensional integration is compared with other approaches. ► More precise approaches like MCA-MSS should be applied when the needed accuracy has not been achieved.

Sensitivity analysis in life cycle assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Groen, E.A.; Heijungs, R.; Bokkers, E.A.M.; Boer, de I.J.M.

2014-01-01

Life cycle assessments require many input parameters and many of these parameters are uncertain; therefore, a sensitivity analysis is an essential part of the final interpretation. The aim of this study is to compare seven sensitivity methods applied to three types of case stud-ies. Two

Sensitivity analysis for matched pair analysis of binary data: From worst case to average case analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hasegawa, Raiden; Small, Dylan

2017-12-01

In matched observational studies where treatment assignment is not randomized, sensitivity analysis helps investigators determine how sensitive their estimated treatment effect is to some unmeasured confounder. The standard approach calibrates the sensitivity analysis according to the worst case bias in a pair. This approach will result in a conservative sensitivity analysis if the worst case bias does not hold in every pair. In this paper, we show that for binary data, the standard approach can be calibrated in terms of the average bias in a pair rather than worst case bias. When the worst case bias and average bias differ, the average bias interpretation results in a less conservative sensitivity analysis and more power. In many studies, the average case calibration may also carry a more natural interpretation than the worst case calibration and may also allow researchers to incorporate additional data to establish an empirical basis with which to calibrate a sensitivity analysis. We illustrate this with a study of the effects of cellphone use on the incidence of automobile accidents. Finally, we extend the average case calibration to the sensitivity analysis of confidence intervals for attributable effects. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Afterbody Radiative Heating Predictions for Earth Entry

Science.gov (United States)

West, Thomas K., IV; Johnston, Christopher O.; Hosder, Serhat

2016-01-01

The objective of this work was to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for afterbody radiative heating predictions of Stardust capsule during Earth entry at peak afterbody radiation conditions. The radiation environment in the afterbody region poses significant challenges for accurate uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis due to the complexity of the flow physics, computational cost, and large number of un-certain variables. In this study, first a sparse collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos approach along with global non-linear sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most significant uncertain variables and reduce the dimensions of the stochastic problem. Then, a total order stochastic expansion was constructed over only the important parameters for an efficient and accurate estimate of the uncertainty in radiation. Based on previous work, 388 uncertain parameters were considered in the radiation model, which came from the thermodynamics, flow field chemistry, and radiation modeling. The sensitivity analysis showed that only four of these variables contributed significantly to afterbody radiation uncertainty, accounting for almost 95% of the uncertainty. These included the electronic- impact excitation rate for N between level 2 and level 5 and rates of three chemical reactions in uencing N, N(+), O, and O(+) number densities in the flow field.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric M.; Hansen, Clifford W.

2010-01-01

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. As part of this development, an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the YM repository was completed in 2008 (1) and supported a license application by the DOE to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for the construction of the YM repository (2). This presentation provides an overview of the conceptual and computational structure of the indicated PA (hereafter referred to as the 2008 YM PA) and the roles that uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis play in this structure.

Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) Sensitivity Analysis Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Meemong; Bowman, Kevin

2014-01-01

Geostationary Coastal and Air pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) is a NASA decadal survey mission to be designed to provide surface reflectance at high spectral, spatial, and temporal resolutions from a geostationary orbit necessary for studying regional-scale air quality issues and their impact on global atmospheric composition processes. GEO-CAPE's Atmospheric Science Questions explore the influence of both gases and particles on air quality, atmospheric composition, and climate. The objective of the GEO-CAPE Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is to analyze the sensitivity of ozone to the global and regional NOx emissions and improve the science impact of GEO-CAPE with respect to the global air quality. The GEO-CAPE OSSE team at Jet propulsion Laboratory has developed a comprehensive OSSE framework that can perform adjoint-sensitivity analysis for a wide range of observation scenarios and measurement qualities. This report discusses the OSSE framework and presents the sensitivity analysis results obtained from the GEO-CAPE OSSE framework for seven observation scenarios and three instrument systems.

An adjoint method of sensitivity analysis for residual vibrations of structures subject to impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Kun; Cheng, Gengdong

2018-03-01

For structures subject to impact loads, the residual vibration reduction is more and more important as the machines become faster and lighter. An efficient sensitivity analysis of residual vibration with respect to structural or operational parameters is indispensable for using a gradient based optimization algorithm, which reduces the residual vibration in either active or passive way. In this paper, an integrated quadratic performance index is used as the measure of the residual vibration, since it globally measures the residual vibration response and its calculation can be simplified greatly with Lyapunov equation. Several sensitivity analysis approaches for performance index were developed based on the assumption that the initial excitations of residual vibration were given and independent of structural design. Since the resulting excitations by the impact load often depend on structural design, this paper aims to propose a new efficient sensitivity analysis method for residual vibration of structures subject to impacts to consider the dependence. The new method is developed by combining two existing methods and using adjoint variable approach. Three numerical examples are carried out and demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method. The numerical results show that the dependence of initial excitations on structural design variables may strongly affects the accuracy of sensitivities.

Sample application of sensitivity/uncertainty analysis techniques to a groundwater transport problem. National Low-Level Waste Management Program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seitz, R.R.; Rood, A.S.; Harris, G.A.; Maheras, S.J.; Kotecki, M.

1991-06-01

The primary objective of this document is to provide sample applications of selected sensitivity and uncertainty analysis techniques within the context of the radiological performance assessment process. These applications were drawn from the companion document Guidelines for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of Low-Level Radioactive Waste Performance Assessment Computer Codes (S. Maheras and M. Kotecki, DOE/LLW-100, 1990). Three techniques are illustrated in this document: one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) analysis, fractional factorial design, and Latin hypercube sampling. The report also illustrates the differences in sensitivity and uncertainty analysis at the early and latter stages of the performance assessment process, and potential pitfalls that can be encountered when applying the techniques. The emphasis is on application of the techniques as opposed to the actual results, since the results are hypothetical and are not based on site-specific conditions

Performance evaluation using bootstrapping DEA techniques: Evidence from industry ratio analysis

OpenAIRE

Halkos, George; Tzeremes, Nickolaos

2010-01-01

In Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) context financial data/ ratios have been used in order to produce a unified measure of performance metric. However, several scholars have indicated that the inclusion of financial ratios create biased efficiency estimates with implications on firms’ and industries’ performance evaluation. There have been several DEA formulations and techniques dealing with this problem including sensitivity analysis, Prior-Ratio-Analysis and DEA/ output–input ratio analysis ...

Sensitivity analysis in multiple imputation in effectiveness studies of psychotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Crameri, Aureliano; von Wyl, Agnes; Koemeda, Margit; Schulthess, Peter; Tschuschke, Volker

2015-01-01

The importance of preventing and treating incomplete data in effectiveness studies is nowadays emphasized. However, most of the publications focus on randomized clinical trials (RCT). One flexible technique for statistical inference with missing data is multiple imputation (MI). Since methods such as MI rely on the assumption of missing data being at random (MAR), a sensitivity analysis for testing the robustness against departures from this assumption is required. In this paper we present a sensitivity analysis technique based on posterior predictive checking, which takes into consideration the concept of clinical significance used in the evaluation of intra-individual changes. We demonstrate the possibilities this technique can offer with the example of irregular longitudinal data collected with the Outcome Questionnaire-45 (OQ-45) and the Helping Alliance Questionnaire (HAQ) in a sample of 260 outpatients. The sensitivity analysis can be used to (1) quantify the degree of bias introduced by missing not at random data (MNAR) in a worst reasonable case scenario, (2) compare the performance of different analysis methods for dealing with missing data, or (3) detect the influence of possible violations to the model assumptions (e.g., lack of normality). Moreover, our analysis showed that ratings from the patient's and therapist's version of the HAQ could significantly improve the predictive value of the routine outcome monitoring based on the OQ-45. Since analysis dropouts always occur, repeated measurements with the OQ-45 and the HAQ analyzed with MI are useful to improve the accuracy of outcome estimates in quality assurance assessments and non-randomized effectiveness studies in the field of outpatient psychotherapy.

Sensitivity analysis of Monju using ERANOS with JENDL-4.0

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tamagno, P. [Institut National des Sciences et Techniques Nucleaires, INSTN - Point Courrier no 35, Centre CEA de Saclay, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Van Rooijen, W. F. G.; Takeda, T. [Research Inst. of Nuclear Engineering, Univ. of Fukui, Kanawa-cho 1-2-4, T914-0055 Fukui-ken, Tsuruga-shi (Japan); Konomura, M. [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, FBR Plant Engineering Center, Shiraki 1, 919-1279 Fukui-ken, Tsuruga-shi (Japan)

2012-07-01

This paper deals with sensitivity analysis using JENDL-4.0 nuclear data applied to the Monju reactor. In 2010 the Japan Atomic Energy Agency - JAEA - released a new set of nuclear data: JENDL-4.0. This new evaluation is expected to contain improved data on actinides and covariance matrices. Covariance matrices are a key point in quantification of uncertainties due to basic nuclear data. For sensitivity analysis, the well-established ERANOS [1] code was chosen because of its integrated modules that allow users to perform a sensitivity analysis of complex reactor geometries. A JENDL-4.0 cross-section library is not available for ERANOS. Therefore a cross-section library had to be made from the original nuclear data set, available as ENDF formatted files. This is achieved by using the following codes: NJOY, CALENDF, MERGE and GECCO in order to create a library for the ECCO cell code (part of ERANOS). In order to make sure of the accuracy of the new ECCO library, two benchmark experiments have been analyzed: the MZA and MZB cores of the MOZART program measured at the ZEBRA facility in the UK. These were chosen due to their similarity to the Monju core. Using the JENDL-4.0 ECCO library we have analyzed the criticality of Monju during the restart in 2010. We have obtained good agreement with the measured criticality. Perturbation calculations have been performed between JENDL-3.3 and JENDL-4.0 based models. The isotopes {sup 239}Pu, {sup 238}U, {sup 241}Am and {sup 241}Pu account for a major part of observed differences. (authors)

Frontier Assignment for Sensitivity Analysis of Data Envelopment Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Naito, Akio; Aoki, Shingo; Tsuji, Hiroshi

To extend the sensitivity analysis capability for DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis), this paper proposes frontier assignment based DEA (FA-DEA). The basic idea of FA-DEA is to allow a decision maker to decide frontier intentionally while the traditional DEA and Super-DEA decide frontier computationally. The features of FA-DEA are as follows: (1) provides chances to exclude extra-influential DMU (Decision Making Unit) and finds extra-ordinal DMU, and (2) includes the function of the traditional DEA and Super-DEA so that it is able to deal with sensitivity analysis more flexibly. Simple numerical study has shown the effectiveness of the proposed FA-DEA and the difference from the traditional DEA.

GRASP [GRound-Water Adjunct Sensitivity Program]: A computer code to perform post-SWENT [simulator for water, energy, and nuclide transport] adjoint sensitivity analysis of steady-state ground-water flow: Technical report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, J.L.; RamaRao, B.S.; McNeish, J.A.

1986-11-01

GRASP (GRound-Water Adjunct Senstivity Program) computes measures of the behavior of a ground-water system and the system's performance for waste isolation, and estimates the sensitivities of these measures to system parameters. The computed measures are referred to as ''performance measures'' and include weighted squared deviations of computed and observed pressures or heads, local Darcy velocity components and magnitudes, boundary fluxes, and travel distance and time along travel paths. The sensitivities are computed by the adjoint method and are exact derivatives of the performance measures with respect to the parameters for the modeled system, taken about the assumed parameter values. GRASP presumes steady-state, saturated grondwater flow, and post-processes the results of a multidimensional (1-D, 2-D, 3-D) finite-difference flow code. This document describes the mathematical basis for the model, the algorithms and solution techniques used, and the computer code design. The implementation of GRASP is verified with simple one- and two-dimensional flow problems, for which analytical expressions of performance measures and sensitivities are derived. The linkage between GRASP and multidimensional finite-difference flow codes is described. This document also contains a detailed user's manual. The use of GRASP to evaluate nuclear waste disposal issues has been emphasized throughout the report. The performance measures and their sensitivities can be employed to assist in directing data collection programs, expedite model calibration, and objectively determine the sensitivity of projected system performance to parameters

Sensitivity analysis of critical experiments with evaluated nuclear data libraries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujiwara, D.; Kosaka, S.

2008-01-01

Criticality benchmark testing was performed with evaluated nuclear data libraries for thermal, low-enriched uranium fuel rod applications. C/E values for k eff were calculated with the continuous-energy Monte Carlo code MVP2 and its libraries generated from Endf/B-VI.8, Endf/B-VII.0, JENDL-3.3 and JEFF-3.1. Subsequently, the observed k eff discrepancies between libraries were decomposed to specify the source of difference in the nuclear data libraries using sensitivity analysis technique. The obtained sensitivity profiles are also utilized to estimate the adequacy of cold critical experiments to the boiling water reactor under hot operating condition. (authors)

Sensitivity analysis of VERA-CS and FRAPCON coupling in a multiphysics environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blakely, Cole; Zhang, Hongbin; Ban, Heng

2018-01-01

Highlights: •VERA-CS and FRAPCON coupling. •Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for coupled VERA-CS and FRAPCON simulations in a multiphysics environment LOTUS. -- Abstract: A demonstration and description of the LOCA Toolkit for US light water reactors (LOTUS) is presented. Through LOTUS, the core simulator VERA-CS developed by CASL is coupled with the fuel performance code FRAPCON. The coupling is performed with consistent uncertainty propagation with all model inconsistencies being well-documented. Monte Carlo sampling is performed on a single 17 × 17 fuel assembly with a three cycle depletion case. Both uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) are used at multiple states within the simulation to elucidate the behavior of minimum departure from nucleate boiling ratio (MDNBR), maximum fuel centerline temperature (MFCT), and gap conductance at peak power (GCPP). The SA metrics used are the Pearson correlation coefficient, Sobol sensitivity indices, and the density-based, delta moment independent measures. Results for MDNBR show consistency among all SA measures, as well for all states throughout the fuel lifecycle. MFCT results contain consistent rankings between SA measures, but show differences throughout the lifecycle. GCPP exhibits predominantly linear relations at low and high burnup, but highly nonlinear relations at intermediate burnup due to abrupt shifts between models. Such behavior is largely undetectable to traditional regression or variance-based methods and demonstrates the utility of density-based methods.

Systemization of burnup sensitivity analysis code (2) (Contract research)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tatsumi, Masahiro; Hyoudou, Hideaki

2008-08-01

Towards the practical use of fast reactors, it is a very important subject to improve prediction accuracy for neutronic properties in LMFBR cores from the viewpoint of improvements on plant economic efficiency with rationally high performance cores and that on reliability and safety margins. A distinct improvement on accuracy in nuclear core design has been accomplished by the development of adjusted nuclear library using the cross-section adjustment method, in which the results of critical experiments of JUPITER and so on are reflected. In the design of large LMFBR cores, however, it is important to accurately estimate not only neutronic characteristics, for example, reaction rate distribution and control rod worth but also burnup characteristics, for example, burnup reactivity loss, breeding ratio and so on. For this purpose, it is desired to improve prediction accuracy of burnup characteristics using the data widely obtained in actual core such as the experimental fast reactor 'JOYO'. The analysis of burnup characteristic is needed to effectively use burnup characteristics data in the actual cores based on the cross-section adjustment method. So far, a burnup sensitivity analysis code, SAGEP-BURN, has been developed and confirmed its effectiveness. However, there is a problem that analysis sequence become inefficient because of a big burden to users due to complexity of the theory of burnup sensitivity and limitation of the system. It is also desired to rearrange the system for future revision since it is becoming difficult to implement new functions in the existing large system. It is not sufficient to unify each computational component for the following reasons: the computational sequence may be changed for each item being analyzed or for purpose such as interpretation of physical meaning. Therefore, it is needed to systemize the current code for burnup sensitivity analysis with component blocks of functionality that can be divided or constructed on occasion

Sensitivity analysis of simulated SOA loadings using a variance-based statistical approach: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF SOA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shrivastava, Manish [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zhao, Chun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Easter, Richard C. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Qian, Yun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zelenyuk, Alla [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Fast, Jerome D. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zhang, Qi [Department of Environmental Toxicology, University of California Davis, California USA; Guenther, Alex [Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine California USA

2016-04-08

We investigate the sensitivity of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) loadings simulated by a regional chemical transport model to 7 selected tunable model parameters: 4 involving emissions of anthropogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds, anthropogenic semi-volatile and intermediate volatility organics (SIVOCs), and NOx, 2 involving dry deposition of SOA precursor gases, and one involving particle-phase transformation of SOA to low volatility. We adopt a quasi-Monte Carlo sampling approach to effectively sample the high-dimensional parameter space, and perform a 250 member ensemble of simulations using a regional model, accounting for some of the latest advances in SOA treatments based on our recent work. We then conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis using the generalized linear model method to study the responses of simulated SOA loadings to the tunable parameters. Analysis of SOA variance from all 250 simulations shows that the volatility transformation parameter, which controls whether particle-phase transformation of SOA from semi-volatile SOA to non-volatile is on or off, is the dominant contributor to variance of simulated surface-level daytime SOA (65% domain average contribution). We also split the simulations into 2 subsets of 125 each, depending on whether the volatility transformation is turned on/off. For each subset, the SOA variances are dominated by the parameters involving biogenic VOC and anthropogenic SIVOC emissions. Furthermore, biogenic VOC emissions have a larger contribution to SOA variance when the SOA transformation to non-volatile is on, while anthropogenic SIVOC emissions have a larger contribution when the transformation is off. NOx contributes less than 4.3% to SOA variance, and this low contribution is mainly attributed to dominance of intermediate to high NOx conditions throughout the simulated domain. The two parameters related to dry deposition of SOA precursor gases also have very low contributions to SOA variance

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis applied to coupled code calculations for a VVER plant transient

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Langenbuch, S.; Krzykacz-Hausmann, B.; Schmidt, K. D.

2004-01-01

The development of coupled codes, combining thermal-hydraulic system codes and 3D neutron kinetics, is an important step to perform best-estimate plant transient calculations. It is generally agreed that the application of best-estimate methods should be supplemented by an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to quantify the uncertainty of the results. The paper presents results from the application of the GRS uncertainty and sensitivity method for a VVER-440 plant transient, which was already studied earlier for the validation of coupled codes. For this application, the main steps of the uncertainty method are described. Typical results of the method applied to the analysis of the plant transient by several working groups using different coupled codes are presented and discussed The results demonstrate the capability of an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. (authors)

Assessing the Robustness of Thermoeconomic Diagnosis of Fouled Evaporators: Sensitivity Analysis of the Exergetic Performance of Direct Expansion Coils

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Piacentino

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Thermoeconomic diagnosis of refrigeration systems is a pioneering approach to the diagnosis of malfunctions, which has been recently proven to achieve good performances for the detection of specific faults. Being an exergy-based diagnostic technique, its performance is influenced by the trends of exergy functions in the “design” and “abnormal” conditions. In this paper the sensitivity of performance of thermoeconomic diagnosis in detecting a fouled direct expansion coil and quantifying the additional consumption it induces is investigated; this fault is critical due to the simultaneous air cooling and dehumidification occurring in the coil, that induce variations in both the chemical and thermal fractions of air exergy. The examined parameters are the temperature and humidity of inlet air, the humidity of reference state and the sensible/latent heat ratio (varied by considering different coil depths. The exergy analysis reveals that due to the more intense dehumidification occurring in presence of fouling, the exergy efficiency of the evaporator coil eventually increases. Once the diagnostic technique is based only on the thermal fraction of air exergy, the results suggest that the performance of the technique increases when inlet air has a lower absolute humidity, as evident from the “optimal performance” regions identified on a psychrometric chart.

Response surface methodology for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis: performance and perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olivi, L.; Brunelli, F.; Cacciabue, P.C.; Parisi, P.

1985-01-01

Two main aspects have to be taken into account in studying a nuclear accident scenario when using nuclear safety codes as an information source. The first one concerns the behavior of the code response and the set of assumptions to be introduced for its modelling. The second one is connected with the uncertainty features of the code input, often modelled as a probability density function (pdf). The analyst can apply two well-defined approaches depending on whether he wants major emphasis put on either of the aspects. Response Surface Methodology uses polynomial and inverse polynomial models together with the theory of experimental design, expressly developed for the identification procedure. It constitutes a well-established body of techniques able to cover a wide spectrum of requirements, when the first aspect plays the crucial role in the definition of the objectives. Other techniques such as Latin hypercube sampling, stratified sampling or even random sampling can fit better, when the second aspect affects the reliability of the analysis. The ultimate goal for both approaches is the selection of the variable, i.e. the identification of the code input variables most effective on the output and the uncertainty propagation, i.e. the assessment of the pdf to be attributed to the code response. The main aim of this work is to present a sensitivity analysis method, already tested on a real case, sufficiently flexible to be applied in both approaches mentioned

Sensitivity analysis of predictive models with an automated adjoint generator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.

1987-01-01

The adjoint method is a well established sensitivity analysis methodology that is particularly efficient in large-scale modeling problems. The coefficients of sensitivity of a given response with respect to every parameter involved in the modeling code can be calculated from the solution of a single adjoint run of the code. Sensitivity coefficients provide a quantitative measure of the importance of the model data in calculating the final results. The major drawback of the adjoint method is the requirement for calculations of very large numbers of partial derivatives to set up the adjoint equations of the model. ADGEN is a software system that has been designed to eliminate this drawback and automatically implement the adjoint formulation in computer codes. The ADGEN system will be described and its use for improving performance assessments and predictive simulations will be discussed. 8 refs., 1 fig

Optimum shape design of incompressible hyperelastic structures with analytical sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jarraya, A.; Wali, M.; Dammark, F.

2014-01-01

This paper is focused on the structural shape optimization of incompressible hyperelastic structures. An analytical sensitivity is developed for the rubber like materials. The whole shape optimization process is carried out by coupling a closed geometric shape in R 2 with boundaries, defined by B-splines curves, exact sensitivity analysis and mathematical programming method (S.Q.P: sequential quadratic programming). Design variables are the control points coordinate. The objective function is to minimize Von-Mises stress, constrained to the total material volume of the structure remains constant. In order to validate the exact Jacobian method, the sensitivity calculation is performed: numerically by an efficient finite difference scheme and by the exact Jacobian method. Numerical optimization examples are presented for elastic and hyperelastic materials using the proposed method.

Behavioral metabolomics analysis identifies novel neurochemical signatures in methamphetamine sensitization

Science.gov (United States)

Adkins, Daniel E.; McClay, Joseph L.; Vunck, Sarah A.; Batman, Angela M.; Vann, Robert E.; Clark, Shaunna L.; Souza, Renan P.; Crowley, James J.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; van den Oord, Edwin J.C.G.; Beardsley, Patrick M.

2014-01-01

Behavioral sensitization has been widely studied in animal models and is theorized to reflect neural modifications associated with human psychostimulant addiction. While the mesolimbic dopaminergic pathway is known to play a role, the neurochemical mechanisms underlying behavioral sensitization remain incompletely understood. In the present study, we conducted the first metabolomics analysis to globally characterize neurochemical differences associated with behavioral sensitization. Methamphetamine-induced sensitization measures were generated by statistically modeling longitudinal activity data for eight inbred strains of mice. Subsequent to behavioral testing, nontargeted liquid and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry profiling was performed on 48 brain samples, yielding 301 metabolite levels per sample after quality control. Association testing between metabolite levels and three primary dimensions of behavioral sensitization (total distance, stereotypy and margin time) showed four robust, significant associations at a stringent metabolome-wide significance threshold (false discovery rate < 0.05). Results implicated homocarnosine, a dipeptide of GABA and histidine, in total distance sensitization, GABA metabolite 4-guanidinobutanoate and pantothenate in stereotypy sensitization, and myo-inositol in margin time sensitization. Secondary analyses indicated that these associations were independent of concurrent methamphetamine levels and, with the exception of the myo-inositol association, suggest a mechanism whereby strain-based genetic variation produces specific baseline neurochemical differences that substantially influence the magnitude of MA-induced sensitization. These findings demonstrate the utility of mouse metabolomics for identifying novel biomarkers, and developing more comprehensive neurochemical models, of psychostimulant sensitization. PMID:24034544

Sensitivity analysis of linear programming problem through a recurrent neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Raja

2017-11-01

In this paper we study the recurrent neural network for solving linear programming problems. To achieve optimality in accuracy and also in computational effort, an algorithm is presented. We investigate the sensitivity analysis of linear programming problem through the neural network. A detailed example is also presented to demonstrate the performance of the recurrent neural network.

Optimization of suspension system and sensitivity analysis for improvement of stability in a midsize heavy vehicle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emre Sert

2017-06-01

In summary, within the scope of this work, unlike the previous studies, experiments involving physical tests (i.e. tilt table, fishhook and cornering and numerical calculations are included. In addition, verification of the virtual model, parametric sensitivity analysis and the comparison of the virtual test and the physical test is performed. Because of the vigorous verification, sensitivity analysis and validation process, the results can be more reliable compared to previous studies.

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis in health economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Baio, Gianluca; Dawid, A Philip

2015-12-01

Health economic evaluations have recently become an important part of the clinical and medical research process and have built upon more advanced statistical decision-theoretic foundations. In some contexts, it is officially required that uncertainty about both parameters and observable variables be properly taken into account, increasingly often by means of Bayesian methods. Among these, probabilistic sensitivity analysis has assumed a predominant role. The objective of this article is to review the problem of health economic assessment from the standpoint of Bayesian statistical decision theory with particular attention to the philosophy underlying the procedures for sensitivity analysis. © The Author(s) 2011.

TOLERANCE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: THIRTY YEARS LATER

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Richard E. Wendell

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Tolerance sensitivity analysis was conceived in 1980 as a pragmatic approach to effectively characterize a parametric region over which objective function coefficients and right-hand-side terms in linear programming could vary simultaneously and independently while maintaining the same optimal basis. As originally proposed, the tolerance region corresponds to the maximum percentage by which coefficients or terms could vary from their estimated values. Over the last thirty years the original results have been extended in a number of ways and applied in a variety of applications. This paper is a critical review of tolerance sensitivity analysis, including extensions and applications.

Sensitivity analysis of a discrete fracture network model for performance assessment of Aberg

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Outters, N.; Shuttle, D.

2000-12-01

This report presents a sensitivity analysis of pathway simulations in a DFN model. The DFN model consists of two sets of stochastic fractures at different scales and the canister locations of a hypothetical repository layout. The hydrogeological base case model is defined by constant head boundary conditions on the edges of a 2000 x 2000 x 1000 m 3 block. The pathway analysis carried out by the program PAWorks provides pathway parameters (pathway length, pathway width, transport aperture, reactive surface area, pathway transmissivity), canister statistics (average number of pathways per canister, percentage of canister locations with pathways) and visualisation of pathways. The project provided the following results from the alternative cases: Case 1: Model with a 100 m thick fracture network at the repository scale instead of 50 m in the base case. The model is little sensitive to the increase of the thickness of the local fracture network. Case 2: Model including fracture networks where the mean size and size standard deviation is twice the ones used in the base case. The travel times to the biosphere is slightly shortened by increasing the fracture diameter. Case 3: Two models with alternative hydraulic boundary conditions: two different flux boundary conditions are tested instead of head boundary conditions in the base case. The advective travel time is shortened by changing the boundary conditions in both alternative cases; in some cases it is reduced to less than a year. Case 4: Study of alternative pathway search algorithms: the pathway search is here based on minimum travel time. The pathway search algorithm of PAWorks based on minimum travel time gives much more optimistic results than the base case where the maximum flow rate was used. The mean travel time is about 5000 years. Due to editorial reasons only a subset of all this information is treated in this report

Receiver operating characteristic analysis of age-related changes in lineup performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Humphries, Joyce E; Flowe, Heather D

2015-04-01

In the basic face memory literature, support has been found for the late maturation hypothesis, which holds that face recognition ability is not fully developed until at least adolescence. Support for the late maturation hypothesis in the criminal lineup identification literature, however, has been equivocal because of the analytic approach that has been used to examine age-related changes in identification performance. Recently, receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis was applied for the first time in the adult eyewitness memory literature to examine whether memory sensitivity differs across different types of lineup tests. ROC analysis allows for the separation of memory sensitivity from response bias in the analysis of recognition data. Here, we have made the first ROC-based comparison of adults' and children's (5- and 6-year-olds and 9- and 10-year-olds) memory performance on lineups by reanalyzing data from Humphries, Holliday, and Flowe (2012). In line with the late maturation hypothesis, memory sensitivity was significantly greater for adults compared with young children. Memory sensitivity for older children was similar to that for adults. The results indicate that the late maturation hypothesis can be generalized to account for age-related performance differences on an eyewitness memory task. The implications for developmental eyewitness memory research are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity analysis for missing data in regulatory submissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Permutt, Thomas

2016-07-30

The National Research Council Panel on Handling Missing Data in Clinical Trials recommended that sensitivity analyses have to be part of the primary reporting of findings from clinical trials. Their specific recommendations, however, seem not to have been taken up rapidly by sponsors of regulatory submissions. The NRC report's detailed suggestions are along rather different lines than what has been called sensitivity analysis in the regulatory setting up to now. Furthermore, the role of sensitivity analysis in regulatory decision-making, although discussed briefly in the NRC report, remains unclear. This paper will examine previous ideas of sensitivity analysis with a view to explaining how the NRC panel's recommendations are different and possibly better suited to coping with present problems of missing data in the regulatory setting. It will also discuss, in more detail than the NRC report, the relevance of sensitivity analysis to decision-making, both for applicants and for regulators. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Hydrocoin level 3 - Testing methods for sensitivity/uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grundfelt, B.; Lindbom, B.; Larsson, A.; Andersson, K.

1991-01-01

The HYDROCOIN study is an international cooperative project for testing groundwater hydrology modelling strategies for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal. The study was initiated in 1984 by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the technical work was finalised in 1987. The participating organisations are regulatory authorities as well as implementing organisations in 10 countries. The study has been performed at three levels aimed at studying computer code verification, model validation and sensitivity/uncertainty analysis respectively. The results from the first two levels, code verification and model validation, have been published in reports in 1988 and 1990 respectively. This paper focuses on some aspects of the results from Level 3, sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, for which a final report is planned to be published during 1990. For Level 3, seven test cases were defined. Some of these aimed at exploring the uncertainty associated with the modelling results by simply varying parameter values and conceptual assumptions. In other test cases statistical sampling methods were applied. One of the test cases dealt with particle tracking and the uncertainty introduced by this type of post processing. The amount of results available is substantial although unevenly spread over the test cases. It has not been possible to cover all aspects of the results in this paper. Instead, the different methods applied will be illustrated by some typical analyses. 4 figs., 9 refs

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the nuclear fuel thermal behavior

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boulore, A., E-mail: antoine.boulore@cea.fr [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique (CEA), DEN, Fuel Research Department, 13108 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); Struzik, C. [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique (CEA), DEN, Fuel Research Department, 13108 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); Gaudier, F. [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique (CEA), DEN, Systems and Structure Modeling Department, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

2012-12-15

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A complete quantitative method for uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis is applied. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The thermal conductivity of UO{sub 2} is modeled as a random variable. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The first source of uncertainty is the linear heat rate. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The second source of uncertainty is the thermal conductivity of the fuel. - Abstract: In the global framework of nuclear fuel behavior simulation, the response of the models describing the physical phenomena occurring during the irradiation in reactor is mainly conditioned by the confidence in the calculated temperature of the fuel. Amongst all parameters influencing the temperature calculation in our fuel rod simulation code (METEOR V2), several sources of uncertainty have been identified as being the most sensitive: thermal conductivity of UO{sub 2}, radial distribution of power in the fuel pellet, local linear heat rate in the fuel rod, geometry of the pellet and thermal transfer in the gap. Expert judgment and inverse methods have been used to model the uncertainty of these parameters using theoretical distributions and correlation matrices. Propagation of these uncertainties in the METEOR V2 code using the URANIE framework and a Monte-Carlo technique has been performed in different experimental irradiations of UO{sub 2} fuel. At every time step of the simulated experiments, we get a temperature statistical distribution which results from the initial distributions of the uncertain parameters. We then can estimate confidence intervals of the calculated temperature. In order to quantify the sensitivity of the calculated temperature to each of the uncertain input parameters and data, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis using the Sobol' indices at first order.

The importance of input interactions in the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of nuclear fuel behavior

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ikonen, T., E-mail: timo.ikonen@vtt.fi; Tulkki, V.

2014-08-15

Highlights: • Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of modeled nuclear fuel behavior is performed. • Burnup dependency of the uncertainties and sensitivities is characterized. • Input interactions significantly increase output uncertainties for irradiated fuel. • Identification of uncertainty sources is greatly improved with higher order methods. • Results stress the importance of using methods that take interactions into account. - Abstract: The propagation of uncertainties in a PWR fuel rod under steady-state irradiation is analyzed by computational means. A hypothetical steady-state scenario of the Three Mile Island 1 reactor fuel rod is modeled with the fuel performance FRAPCON, using realistic input uncertainties for the fabrication and model parameters, boundary conditions and material properties. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is performed by extensive Monte Carlo sampling of the inputs’ probability distribution and by applying correlation coefficient and Sobol’ variance decomposition analyses. The latter includes evaluation of the second order and total effect sensitivity indices, allowing the study of interactions between input variables. The results show that the interactions play a large role in the propagation of uncertainties, and first order methods such as the correlation coefficient analyses are in general insufficient for sensitivity analysis of the fuel rod. Significant improvement over the first order methods can be achieved by using higher order methods. The results also show that both the magnitude of the uncertainties and their propagation depends not only on the output in question, but also on burnup. The latter is due to onset of new phenomena (such as the fission gas release) and the gradual closure of the pellet-cladding gap with increasing burnup. Increasing burnup also affects the importance of input interactions. Interaction effects are typically highest in the moderate burnup (of the order of 10–40 MWd

Application of perturbation methods for sensitivity analysis for nuclear power plant steam generators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gurjao, Emir Candeia

1996-02-01

The differential and GPT (Generalized Perturbation Theory) formalisms of the Perturbation Theory were applied in this work to a simplified U-tubes steam generator model to perform sensitivity analysis. The adjoint and importance equations, with the corresponding expressions for the sensitivity coefficients, were derived for this steam generator model. The system was numerically was numerically solved in a Fortran program, called GEVADJ, in order to calculate the sensitivity coefficients. A transient loss of forced primary coolant in the nuclear power plant Angra-1 was used as example case. The average and final values of functionals: secondary pressure and enthalpy were studied in relation to changes in the secondary feedwater flow, enthalpy and total volume in secondary circuit. Absolute variations in the above functionals were calculated using the perturbative methods, considering the variations in the feedwater flow and total secondary volume. Comparison with the same variations obtained via direct model showed in general good agreement, demonstrating the potentiality of perturbative methods for sensitivity analysis of nuclear systems. (author)

High order effects in cross section sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greenspan, E.; Karni, Y.; Gilai, D.

1978-01-01

Two types of high order effects associated with perturbations in the flux shape are considered: Spectral Fine Structure Effects (SFSE) and non-linearity between changes in performance parameters and data uncertainties. SFSE are investigated in Part I using a simple single resonance model. Results obtained for each of the resolved and for representative unresolved resonances of 238 U in a ZPR-6/7 like environment indicate that SFSE can have a significant contribution to the sensitivity of group constants to resonance parameters. Methods to account for SFSE both for the propagation of uncertainties and for the adjustment of nuclear data are discussed. A Second Order Sensitivity Theory (SOST) is presented, and its accuracy relative to that of the first order sensitivity theory and of the direct substitution method is investigated in Part II. The investigation is done for the non-linear problem of the effect of changes in the 297 keV sodium minimum cross section on the transport of neutrons in a deep-penetration problem. It is found that the SOST provides a satisfactory accuracy for cross section uncertainty analysis. For the same degree of accuracy, the SOST can be significantly more efficient than the direct substitution method

New strategies of sensitivity analysis capabilities in continuous-energy Monte Carlo code RMC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qiu, Yishu; Liang, Jingang; Wang, Kan; Yu, Jiankai

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Data decomposition techniques are proposed for memory reduction. • New strategies are put forward and implemented in RMC code to improve efficiency and accuracy for sensitivity calculations. • A capability to compute region-specific sensitivity coefficients is developed in RMC code. - Abstract: The iterated fission probability (IFP) method has been demonstrated to be an accurate alternative for estimating the adjoint-weighted parameters in continuous-energy Monte Carlo forward calculations. However, the memory requirements of this method are huge especially when a large number of sensitivity coefficients are desired. Therefore, data decomposition techniques are proposed in this work. Two parallel strategies based on the neutron production rate (NPR) estimator and the fission neutron population (FNP) estimator for adjoint fluxes, as well as a more efficient algorithm which has multiple overlapping blocks (MOB) in a cycle, are investigated and implemented in the continuous-energy Reactor Monte Carlo code RMC for sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, a region-specific sensitivity analysis capability is developed in RMC. These new strategies, algorithms and capabilities are verified against analytic solutions of a multi-group infinite-medium problem and against results from other software packages including MCNP6, TSUANAMI-1D and multi-group TSUNAMI-3D. While the results generated by the NPR and FNP strategies agree within 0.1% of the analytic sensitivity coefficients, the MOB strategy surprisingly produces sensitivity coefficients exactly equal to the analytic ones. Meanwhile, the results generated by the three strategies in RMC are in agreement with those produced by other codes within a few percent. Moreover, the MOB strategy performs the most efficient sensitivity coefficient calculations (offering as much as an order of magnitude gain in FoMs over MCNP6), followed by the NPR and FNP strategies, and then MCNP6. The results also reveal that these

Sensitivity analysis and related analysis : A survey of statistical techniques

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.

1995-01-01

This paper reviews the state of the art in five related types of analysis, namely (i) sensitivity or what-if analysis, (ii) uncertainty or risk analysis, (iii) screening, (iv) validation, and (v) optimization. The main question is: when should which type of analysis be applied; which statistical

High sensitivity neutron activation analysis of environmental and biological standard reference materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greenberg, R.R.; Fleming, R.F.; Zeisler, R.

1984-01-01

Neutron activation analysis is a sensitive method with unique capabilities for the analysis of environmental and biological samples. Since it is based upon the nuclear properties of the elements, it does not suffer from many of the chemical effects that plague other methods of analysis. Analyses can be performed either with no chemical treatment of the sample (instrumentally), or with separations of the elements of interest after neutron irradiation (radiochemically). Typical examples of both types of analysis are discussed, and data obtained for a number of environmental and biological SRMs are presented. (author)

Sensitivity Analysis for Steady State Groundwater Flow Using Adjoint Operators

Science.gov (United States)

Sykes, J. F.; Wilson, J. L.; Andrews, R. W.

1985-03-01

Adjoint sensitivity theory is currently being considered as a potential method for calculating the sensitivity of nuclear waste repository performance measures to the parameters of the system. For groundwater flow systems, performance measures of interest include piezometric heads in the vicinity of a waste site, velocities or travel time in aquifers, and mass discharge to biosphere points. The parameters include recharge-discharge rates, prescribed boundary heads or fluxes, formation thicknesses, and hydraulic conductivities. The derivative of a performance measure with respect to the system parameters is usually taken as a measure of sensitivity. To calculate sensitivities, adjoint sensitivity equations are formulated from the equations describing the primary problem. The solution of the primary problem and the adjoint sensitivity problem enables the determination of all of the required derivatives and hence related sensitivity coefficients. In this study, adjoint sensitivity theory is developed for equations of two-dimensional steady state flow in a confined aquifer. Both the primary flow equation and the adjoint sensitivity equation are solved using the Galerkin finite element method. The developed computer code is used to investigate the regional flow parameters of the Leadville Formation of the Paradox Basin in Utah. The results illustrate the sensitivity of calculated local heads to the boundary conditions. Alternatively, local velocity related performance measures are more sensitive to hydraulic conductivities.

Sensitivity Analysis in Two-Stage DEA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Athena Forghani

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis (DEA is a method for measuring the efficiency of peer decision making units (DMUs which uses a set of inputs to produce a set of outputs. In some cases, DMUs have a two-stage structure, in which the first stage utilizes inputs to produce outputs used as the inputs of the second stage to produce final outputs. One important issue in two-stage DEA is the sensitivity of the results of an analysis to perturbations in the data. The current paper looks into combined model for two-stage DEA and applies the sensitivity analysis to DMUs on the entire frontier. In fact, necessary and sufficient conditions for preserving a DMU's efficiency classiffication are developed when various data changes are applied to all DMUs.

Sensitivity Analysis in Two-Stage DEA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Athena Forghani

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis (DEA is a method for measuring the efficiency of peer decision making units (DMUs which uses a set of inputs to produce a set of outputs. In some cases, DMUs have a two-stage structure, in which the first stage utilizes inputs to produce outputs used as the inputs of the second stage to produce final outputs. One important issue in two-stage DEA is the sensitivity of the results of an analysis to perturbations in the data. The current paper looks into combined model for two-stage DEA and applies the sensitivity analysis to DMUs on the entire frontier. In fact, necessary and sufficient conditions for preserving a DMU's efficiency classiffication are developed when various data changes are applied to all DMUs.

Multi-parameters sensitivity analysis of natural vibration modal for steel arch bridge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

WANG Ying

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Because of the vehicle loads and environmental factors,the behaviors of bridge structure in service is becoming deterioration.The modal parameters are important indexes of structure,so sensitivity analysis of natural vibration is an important way to evaluate the behavior of bridge structure.In this paper,using the finite element software Ansys,calculation model of a steel arch bridge was built,and the natural vibration modals were obtained.In order to compare the different sensitivity of material parameters which may affect the natural vibration modal,5 factors were chosen to perform the calculation.The results indicated that different 5 factors had different sensitivity.The leading factor was elastic modulus of arch rib,and the elastic modulus of suspender had little effect to the sensitivity.Another argument was the opposite sensitivity effect happened between the elastic modulus and density of the material.

DDASAC, Double-Precision Differential or Algebraic Sensitivity Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caracotsios, M.; Stewart, W.E.; Petzold, L.

1997-01-01

1 - Description of program or function: DDASAC solves nonlinear initial-value problems involving stiff implicit systems of ordinary differential and algebraic equations. Purely algebraic nonlinear systems can also be solved, given an initial guess within the region of attraction of a solution. Options include automatic reconciliation of inconsistent initial states and derivatives, automatic initial step selection, direct concurrent parametric sensitivity analysis, and stopping at a prescribed value of any user-defined functional of the current solution vector. Local error control (in the max-norm or the 2-norm) is provided for the state vector and can include the sensitivities on request. 2 - Method of solution: Reconciliation of initial conditions is done with a damped Newton algorithm adapted from Bain and Stewart (1991). Initial step selection is done by the first-order algorithm of Shampine (1987), extended here to differential-algebraic equation systems. The solution is continued with the DASSL predictor- corrector algorithm (Petzold 1983, Brenan et al. 1989) with the initial acceleration phase detected and with row scaling of the Jacobian added. The backward-difference formulas for the predictor and corrector are expressed in divide-difference form, and the fixed-leading-coefficient form of the corrector (Jackson and Sacks-Davis 1980, Brenan et al. 1989) is used. Weights for error tests are updated in each step with the user's tolerances at the predicted state. Sensitivity analysis is performed directly on the corrector equations as given by Catacotsios and Stewart (1985) and is extended here to the initialization when needed. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: This algorithm, like DASSL, performs well on differential-algebraic systems of index 0 and 1 but not on higher-index systems; see Brenan et al. (1989). The user assigns the work array lengths and the output unit. The machine number range and precision are determined at run time by a

Sensitivity analysis using two-dimensional models of the Whiteshell geosphere

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scheier, N. W.; Chan, T.; Stanchell, F. W.

1992-12-01

As part of the assessment of the environmental impact of disposing of immobilized nuclear fuel waste in a vault deep within plutonic rock, detailed modelling of groundwater flow, heat transport and containment transport through the geosphere is being performed using the MOTIF finite-element computer code. The first geosphere model is being developed using data from the Whiteshell Research Area, with a hypothetical disposal vault at a depth of 500 m. This report briefly describes the conceptual model and then describes in detail the two-dimensional simulations used to help initially define an adequate three-dimensional representation, select a suitable form for the simplified model to be used in the overall systems assessment with the SYVAC computer code, and perform some sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity analysis considers variations in the rock layer properties, variations in fracture zone configurations, the impact of grouting a vault/fracture zone intersection, and variations in boundary conditions. This study shows that the configuration of major fracture zones can have a major influence on groundwater flow patterns. The flows in the major fracture zones can have high velocities and large volumes. The proximity of the radionuclide source to a major fracture zone may strongly influence the time it takes for a radionuclide to be transported to the surface. (auth)

Advanced surrogate model and sensitivity analysis methods for sodium fast reactor accident assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marrel, A.; Marie, N.; De Lozzo, M.

2015-01-01

Within the framework of the generation IV Sodium Fast Reactors, the safety in case of severe accidents is assessed. From this statement, CEA has developed a new physical tool to model the accident initiated by the Total Instantaneous Blockage (TIB) of a sub-assembly. This TIB simulator depends on many uncertain input parameters. This paper aims at proposing a global methodology combining several advanced statistical techniques in order to perform a global sensitivity analysis of this TIB simulator. The objective is to identify the most influential uncertain inputs for the various TIB outputs involved in the safety analysis. The proposed statistical methodology combining several advanced statistical techniques enables to take into account the constraints on the TIB simulator outputs (positivity constraints) and to deal simultaneously with various outputs. To do this, a space-filling design is used and the corresponding TIB model simulations are performed. Based on this learning sample, an efficient constrained Gaussian process metamodel is fitted on each TIB model outputs. Then, using the metamodels, classical sensitivity analyses are made for each TIB output. Multivariate global sensitivity analyses based on aggregated indices are also performed, providing additional valuable information. Main conclusions on the influence of each uncertain input are derived. - Highlights: • Physical-statistical tool for Sodium Fast Reactors TIB accident. • 27 uncertain parameters (core state, lack of physical knowledge) are highlighted. • Constrained Gaussian process efficiently predicts TIB outputs (safety criteria). • Multivariate sensitivity analyses reveal that three inputs are mainly influential. • The type of corium propagation (thermal or hydrodynamic) is the most influential

Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.

2009-01-01

This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial

Sensitivity analysis in a structural reliability context

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lemaitre, Paul

2014-01-01

This thesis' subject is sensitivity analysis in a structural reliability context. The general framework is the study of a deterministic numerical model that allows to reproduce a complex physical phenomenon. The aim of a reliability study is to estimate the failure probability of the system from the numerical model and the uncertainties of the inputs. In this context, the quantification of the impact of the uncertainty of each input parameter on the output might be of interest. This step is called sensitivity analysis. Many scientific works deal with this topic but not in the reliability scope. This thesis' aim is to test existing sensitivity analysis methods, and to propose more efficient original methods. A bibliographical step on sensitivity analysis on one hand and on the estimation of small failure probabilities on the other hand is first proposed. This step raises the need to develop appropriate techniques. Two variables ranking methods are then explored. The first one proposes to make use of binary classifiers (random forests). The second one measures the departure, at each step of a subset method, between each input original density and the density given the subset reached. A more general and original methodology reflecting the impact of the input density modification on the failure probability is then explored. The proposed methods are then applied on the CWNR case, which motivates this thesis. (author)

Global sensitivity analysis of bogie dynamics with respect to suspension components

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mousavi Bideleh, Seyed Milad, E-mail: milad.mousavi@chalmers.se; Berbyuk, Viktor, E-mail: viktor.berbyuk@chalmers.se [Chalmers University of Technology, Department of Applied Mechanics (Sweden)

2016-06-15

The effects of bogie primary and secondary suspension stiffness and damping components on the dynamics behavior of a high speed train are scrutinized based on the multiplicative dimensional reduction method (M-DRM). A one-car railway vehicle model is chosen for the analysis at two levels of the bogie suspension system: symmetric and asymmetric configurations. Several operational scenarios including straight and circular curved tracks are considered, and measurement data are used as the track irregularities in different directions. Ride comfort, safety, and wear objective functions are specified to evaluate the vehicle’s dynamics performance on the prescribed operational scenarios. In order to have an appropriate cut center for the sensitivity analysis, the genetic algorithm optimization routine is employed to optimize the primary and secondary suspension components in terms of wear and comfort, respectively. The global sensitivity indices are introduced and the Gaussian quadrature integrals are employed to evaluate the simplified sensitivity indices correlated to the objective functions. In each scenario, the most influential suspension components on bogie dynamics are recognized and a thorough analysis of the results is given. The outcomes of the current research provide informative data that can be beneficial in design and optimization of passive and active suspension components for high speed train bogies.

Global sensitivity analysis of bogie dynamics with respect to suspension components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mousavi Bideleh, Seyed Milad; Berbyuk, Viktor

2016-01-01

The effects of bogie primary and secondary suspension stiffness and damping components on the dynamics behavior of a high speed train are scrutinized based on the multiplicative dimensional reduction method (M-DRM). A one-car railway vehicle model is chosen for the analysis at two levels of the bogie suspension system: symmetric and asymmetric configurations. Several operational scenarios including straight and circular curved tracks are considered, and measurement data are used as the track irregularities in different directions. Ride comfort, safety, and wear objective functions are specified to evaluate the vehicle’s dynamics performance on the prescribed operational scenarios. In order to have an appropriate cut center for the sensitivity analysis, the genetic algorithm optimization routine is employed to optimize the primary and secondary suspension components in terms of wear and comfort, respectively. The global sensitivity indices are introduced and the Gaussian quadrature integrals are employed to evaluate the simplified sensitivity indices correlated to the objective functions. In each scenario, the most influential suspension components on bogie dynamics are recognized and a thorough analysis of the results is given. The outcomes of the current research provide informative data that can be beneficial in design and optimization of passive and active suspension components for high speed train bogies.

Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferson, Scott; Troy Tucker, W.

2006-01-01

Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values

Exergoeconomic multi objective optimization and sensitivity analysis of a regenerative Brayton cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naserian, Mohammad Mahdi; Farahat, Said; Sarhaddi, Faramarz

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Finite time exergoeconomic multi objective optimization of a Brayton cycle. • Comparing the exergoeconomic and the ecological function optimization results. • Inserting the cost of fluid streams concept into finite-time thermodynamics. • Exergoeconomic sensitivity analysis of a regenerative Brayton cycle. • Suggesting the cycle performance curve drawing and utilization. - Abstract: In this study, the optimal performance of a regenerative Brayton cycle is sought through power maximization and then exergoeconomic optimization using finite-time thermodynamic concept and finite-size components. Optimizations are performed using genetic algorithm. In order to take into account the finite-time and finite-size concepts in current problem, a dimensionless mass-flow parameter is used deploying time variations. The decision variables for the optimum state (of multi objective exergoeconomic optimization) are compared to the maximum power state. One can see that the multi objective exergoeconomic optimization results in a better performance than that obtained with the maximum power state. The results demonstrate that system performance at optimum point of multi objective optimization yields 71% of the maximum power, but only with exergy destruction as 24% of the amount that is produced at the maximum power state and 67% lower total cost rate than that of the maximum power state. In order to assess the impact of the variation of the decision variables on the objective functions, sensitivity analysis is conducted. Finally, the cycle performance curve drawing according to exergoeconomic multi objective optimization results and its utilization, are suggested.

The development of a high performance liquid chromatograph with a sensitive on-stream radioactivity monitor for the analysis of 3H- and 14C-labelled gibberellins

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reeve, D.R.; Yokota, T.; Nash, L.; Crozier, A.

1976-01-01

The development of a high performance liquid chromatograph for the separation of gibberellins is described. The system combines high efficiency, peak capacity, and sample capacity with rapid speed of analysis. In addition, the construction details of a sensitive on-stream radioactivity monitor are outlined. The overall versatility of the chromatograph has been demonstrated by the separation of a range of 3 H- and 14 C-labelled gibberellins and gibberellin precursors. The system also has considerable potential for the analysis of abscisic acid and acidic and neutral indoles. (author)

Bayesian sensitivity analysis of a 1D vascular model with Gaussian process emulators.

Science.gov (United States)

Melis, Alessandro; Clayton, Richard H; Marzo, Alberto

2017-12-01

One-dimensional models of the cardiovascular system can capture the physics of pulse waves but involve many parameters. Since these may vary among individuals, patient-specific models are difficult to construct. Sensitivity analysis can be used to rank model parameters by their effect on outputs and to quantify how uncertainty in parameters influences output uncertainty. This type of analysis is often conducted with a Monte Carlo method, where large numbers of model runs are used to assess input-output relations. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the computational efficiency of variance-based sensitivity analysis of 1D vascular models using Gaussian process emulators, compared to a standard Monte Carlo approach. The methodology was tested on four vascular networks of increasing complexity to analyse its scalability. The computational time needed to perform the sensitivity analysis with an emulator was reduced by the 99.96% compared to a Monte Carlo approach. Despite the reduced computational time, sensitivity indices obtained using the two approaches were comparable. The scalability study showed that the number of mechanistic simulations needed to train a Gaussian process for sensitivity analysis was of the order O(d), rather than O(d×103) needed for Monte Carlo analysis (where d is the number of parameters in the model). The efficiency of this approach, combined with capacity to estimate the impact of uncertain parameters on model outputs, will enable development of patient-specific models of the vascular system, and has the potential to produce results with clinical relevance. © 2017 The Authors International Journal for Numerical Methods in Biomedical Engineering Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Automated sensitivity analysis of the radionuclide migration code UCB-NE-10.2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pin, F.G.; Worley, B.A.; Oblow, E.M.; Wright, R.Q.; Harper, W.V.

1985-01-01

The Salt Repository Project (SRP) of the U.S. Department of Energy is performing ongoing performance assessment analyses for the eventual licensing of an underground high-level nuclear waste repository in salt. As part of these studies, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses play a major role in the identification of important parameters, and in the identification of specific data needs for site characterization. Oak Ridge National Laboratory has supported the SRP in this effort resulting in thee development of an automated procedure for performing large scale sensitivity analysis using computer calculus. GRESS, GRadient Enhanced Software System, is a pre-compiler that can process FORTRAN computer codes and add derivative taking capabilities to the normal calculated results. The GRESS code is described and applied to the code UCB-NE-10.2 which simulates the migration through a sorption medium of the radionuclide members of a decay chain

Sensitivity analysis of recovery efficiency in high-temperature aquifer thermal energy storage with single well

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeon, Jun-Seo; Lee, Seung-Rae; Pasquinelli, Lisa; Fabricius, Ida Lykke

2015-01-01

High-temperature aquifer thermal energy storage system usually shows higher performance than other borehole thermal energy storage systems. Although there is a limitation in the widespread use of the HT-ATES system because of several technical problems such as clogging, corrosion, etc., it is getting more attention as these issues are gradually alleviated. In this study, a sensitivity analysis of recovery efficiency in two cases of HT-ATES system with a single well is conducted to select key parameters. For a fractional factorial design used to choose input parameters with uniformity, the optimal Latin hypercube sampling with an enhanced stochastic evolutionary algorithm is considered. Then, the recovery efficiency is obtained using a computer model developed by COMSOL Multiphysics. With input and output variables, the surrogate modeling technique, namely the Gaussian-Kriging method with Smoothly Clopped Absolute Deviation Penalty, is utilized. Finally, the sensitivity analysis is performed based on the variation decomposition. According to the result of sensitivity analysis, the most important input variables are selected and confirmed to consider the interaction effects for each case and it is confirmed that key parameters vary with the experiment domain of hydraulic and thermal properties as well as the number of input variables. - Highlights: • Main and interaction effects on recovery efficiency in HT-ATES was investigated. • Reliability depended on fractional factorial design and interaction effects. • Hydraulic permeability of aquifer had an important impact on recovery efficiency. • Site-specific sensitivity analysis of HT-ATES was recommended.

Sensitivity analysis of ranked data: from order statistics to quantiles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heidergott, B.F.; Volk-Makarewicz, W.

2015-01-01

In this paper we provide the mathematical theory for sensitivity analysis of order statistics of continuous random variables, where the sensitivity is with respect to a distributional parameter. Sensitivity analysis of order statistics over a finite number of observations is discussed before

Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), with application to hydrologic models

Science.gov (United States)

Rakovec, O.; Hill, M. C.; Clark, M. P.; Weerts, A. H.; Teuling, A. J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2014-01-01

This paper presents a hybrid local-global sensitivity analysis method termed the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), which is used here to identify important and unimportant parameters and evaluate how model parameter importance changes as parameter values change. DELSA uses derivative-based "local" methods to obtain the distribution of parameter sensitivity across the parameter space, which promotes consideration of sensitivity analysis results in the context of simulated dynamics. This work presents DELSA, discusses how it relates to existing methods, and uses two hydrologic test cases to compare its performance with the popular global, variance-based Sobol' method. The first test case is a simple nonlinear reservoir model with two parameters. The second test case involves five alternative "bucket-style" hydrologic models with up to 14 parameters applied to a medium-sized catchment (200 km2) in the Belgian Ardennes. Results show that in both examples, Sobol' and DELSA identify similar important and unimportant parameters, with DELSA enabling more detailed insight at much lower computational cost. For example, in the real-world problem the time delay in runoff is the most important parameter in all models, but DELSA shows that for about 20% of parameter sets it is not important at all and alternative mechanisms and parameters dominate. Moreover, the time delay was identified as important in regions producing poor model fits, whereas other parameters were identified as more important in regions of the parameter space producing better model fits. The ability to understand how parameter importance varies through parameter space is critical to inform decisions about, for example, additional data collection and model development. The ability to perform such analyses with modest computational requirements provides exciting opportunities to evaluate complicated models as well as many alternative models.

Sensitivity analysis in remote sensing

CERN Document Server

Ustinov, Eugene A

2015-01-01

This book contains a detailed presentation of general principles of sensitivity analysis as well as their applications to sample cases of remote sensing experiments. An emphasis is made on applications of adjoint problems, because they are more efficient in many practical cases, although their formulation may seem counterintuitive to a beginner. Special attention is paid to forward problems based on higher-order partial differential equations, where a novel matrix operator approach to formulation of corresponding adjoint problems is presented. Sensitivity analysis (SA) serves for quantitative models of physical objects the same purpose, as differential calculus does for functions. SA provides derivatives of model output parameters (observables) with respect to input parameters. In remote sensing SA provides computer-efficient means to compute the jacobians, matrices of partial derivatives of observables with respect to the geophysical parameters of interest. The jacobians are used to solve corresponding inver...

Acceleration and sensitivity analysis of lattice kinetic Monte Carlo simulations using parallel processing and rate constant rescaling.

Science.gov (United States)

Núñez, M; Robie, T; Vlachos, D G

2017-10-28

Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulation provides insights into catalytic reactions unobtainable with either experiments or mean-field microkinetic models. Sensitivity analysis of KMC models assesses the robustness of the predictions to parametric perturbations and identifies rate determining steps in a chemical reaction network. Stiffness in the chemical reaction network, a ubiquitous feature, demands lengthy run times for KMC models and renders efficient sensitivity analysis based on the likelihood ratio method unusable. We address the challenge of efficiently conducting KMC simulations and performing accurate sensitivity analysis in systems with unknown time scales by employing two acceleration techniques: rate constant rescaling and parallel processing. We develop statistical criteria that ensure sufficient sampling of non-equilibrium steady state conditions. Our approach provides the twofold benefit of accelerating the simulation itself and enabling likelihood ratio sensitivity analysis, which provides further speedup relative to finite difference sensitivity analysis. As a result, the likelihood ratio method can be applied to real chemistry. We apply our methodology to the water-gas shift reaction on Pt(111).

Sensitivity Analysis for Urban Drainage Modeling Using Mutual Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chuanqi Li

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The intention of this paper is to evaluate the sensitivity of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM output to its input parameters. A global parameter sensitivity analysis is conducted in order to determine which parameters mostly affect the model simulation results. Two different methods of sensitivity analysis are applied in this study. The first one is the partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC which measures nonlinear but monotonic relationships between model inputs and outputs. The second one is based on the mutual information which provides a general measure of the strength of the non-monotonic association between two variables. Both methods are based on the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS of the parameter space, and thus the same datasets can be used to obtain both measures of sensitivity. The utility of the PRCC and the mutual information analysis methods are illustrated by analyzing a complex SWMM model. The sensitivity analysis revealed that only a few key input variables are contributing significantly to the model outputs; PRCCs and mutual information are calculated and used to determine and rank the importance of these key parameters. This study shows that the partial rank correlation coefficient and mutual information analysis can be considered effective methods for assessing the sensitivity of the SWMM model to the uncertainty in its input parameters.

Sensitivity analysis on the component cooling system of the Angra 1 NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castro Silva, Luiz Euripedes Massiere de

1995-01-01

The component cooling system has been studied within the scope of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis of the Angra I NPP in order to assure that the proposed modelling suits as close as possible the functioning system and its availability aspects. In such a way a sensitivity analysis was performed on the equivalence between the operating modes of the component cooling system and its results show the fitness of the model. (author). 4 refs, 3 figs, 3 tabs

Sensitivity analysis of the long-term performance of the grout system for the disposal of a low-level radioactive waste stream at Hanford

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huizenga, D.G.; Farris, W.T.; Treat, R.L.; McMakin, A.H.

1986-03-01

The US Department of Energy is planning to design and construct a Transportable Grout Facility at the Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. The facility will combine grout-forming materials with low-level liquid radioactive wastes to produce solidified grout monoliths for near-surface disposal. Pacific Northwest Laboratory is conducting studies to verify that the process is workable and that the waste, as disposed of in grout, will provide long-term protection for people and the environment. The long-term performance of the grout disposal system is sensitive to several parameters that affect radionuclide release and transport (e.g., local climate, leach rate, and monolith integrity). The purpose of this analysis was to investigate variations in these parameters in order to evaluate several design options for the grout system, including the proposed design for the grout startup campaign. The analysis was performed by postulating several scenarios that included conditions that could potentially compromise the effectiveness of the grout system. The grout system's performance was then evaluated, under each set of conditions, to measure its ability to reduce the transport rate of contaminants to the biosphere

A general first-order global sensitivity analysis method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Chonggang; Gertner, George Zdzislaw

2008-01-01

Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST) is one of the most popular global sensitivity analysis techniques. The main mechanism of FAST is to assign each parameter with a characteristic frequency through a search function. Then, for a specific parameter, the variance contribution can be singled out of the model output by the characteristic frequency. Although FAST has been widely applied, there are two limitations: (1) the aliasing effect among parameters by using integer characteristic frequencies and (2) the suitability for only models with independent parameters. In this paper, we synthesize the improvement to overcome the aliasing effect limitation [Tarantola S, Gatelli D, Mara TA. Random balance designs for the estimation of first order global sensitivity indices. Reliab Eng Syst Safety 2006; 91(6):717-27] and the improvement to overcome the independence limitation [Xu C, Gertner G. Extending a global sensitivity analysis technique to models with correlated parameters. Comput Stat Data Anal 2007, accepted for publication]. In this way, FAST can be a general first-order global sensitivity analysis method for linear/nonlinear models with as many correlated/uncorrelated parameters as the user specifies. We apply the general FAST to four test cases with correlated parameters. The results show that the sensitivity indices derived by the general FAST are in good agreement with the sensitivity indices derived by the correlation ratio method, which is a non-parametric method for models with correlated parameters

Association between Pressure Pain Sensitivity, Performance stability and Overall Performance in Olympic Sailors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ballegaard, Søren; Petersen, Pernille Bjørn; Harboe, Gitte Sommer

2016-01-01

Background: During sports competitions, the performance of athletes may be negatively affected by persistent stress and autonomic nervous system (ANS) dysfunction, both of which can be assessed by pressure pain sensitivity (PPS) at the chest bone. Objectives: To test the association between PPS...... guide for persistent stress and ANS dysfunction. Performance stability, overall performance and PPS measure were assessed at three intervals. Results: At baseline, the median PPS was 83, the performance stability was inferior to the mean top 10 competitors, and the overall performance was rank eight......: r > 0.70; p stress and ANS dysfunction as assessed by PPS on one side and performance stability and overall performance on the other side....

Time-dependent reliability sensitivity analysis of motion mechanisms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei, Pengfei; Song, Jingwen; Lu, Zhenzhou; Yue, Zhufeng

2016-01-01

Reliability sensitivity analysis aims at identifying the source of structure/mechanism failure, and quantifying the effects of each random source or their distribution parameters on failure probability or reliability. In this paper, the time-dependent parametric reliability sensitivity (PRS) analysis as well as the global reliability sensitivity (GRS) analysis is introduced for the motion mechanisms. The PRS indices are defined as the partial derivatives of the time-dependent reliability w.r.t. the distribution parameters of each random input variable, and they quantify the effect of the small change of each distribution parameter on the time-dependent reliability. The GRS indices are defined for quantifying the individual, interaction and total contributions of the uncertainty in each random input variable to the time-dependent reliability. The envelope function method combined with the first order approximation of the motion error function is introduced for efficiently estimating the time-dependent PRS and GRS indices. Both the time-dependent PRS and GRS analysis techniques can be especially useful for reliability-based design. This significance of the proposed methods as well as the effectiveness of the envelope function method for estimating the time-dependent PRS and GRS indices are demonstrated with a four-bar mechanism and a car rack-and-pinion steering linkage. - Highlights: • Time-dependent parametric reliability sensitivity analysis is presented. • Time-dependent global reliability sensitivity analysis is presented for mechanisms. • The proposed method is especially useful for enhancing the kinematic reliability. • An envelope method is introduced for efficiently implementing the proposed methods. • The proposed method is demonstrated by two real planar mechanisms.

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR SALTSTONE DISPOSAL UNIT COLUMN DEGRADATION ANALYSES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flach, G.

2014-10-28

PORFLOW related analyses supporting a Sensitivity Analysis for Saltstone Disposal Unit (SDU) column degradation were performed. Previous analyses, Flach and Taylor 2014, used a model in which the SDU columns degraded in a piecewise manner from the top and bottom simultaneously. The current analyses employs a model in which all pieces of the column degrade at the same time. Information was extracted from the analyses which may be useful in determining the distribution of Tc-99 in the various SDUs throughout time and in determining flow balances for the SDUs.

Application of Wielandt method in continuous-energy nuclear data sensitivity analysis with RMC code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qiu Yishu; Wang Kan; She Ding

2015-01-01

The Iterated Fission Probability (IFP) method, an accurate method to estimate adjoint-weighted quantities in the continuous-energy Monte Carlo criticality calculations, has been widely used for calculating kinetic parameters and nuclear data sensitivity coefficients. By using a strategy of waiting, however, this method faces the challenge of high memory usage to store the tallies of original contributions which size is proportional to the number of particle histories in each cycle. Recently, the Wielandt method, applied by Monte Carlo code McCARD to calculate kinetic parameters, estimates adjoint fluxes in a single particle history and thus can save memory usage. In this work, the Wielandt method has been applied in Rector Monte Carlo code RMC for nuclear data sensitivity analysis. The methodology and algorithm of applying Wielandt method in estimation of adjoint-based sensitivity coefficients are discussed. Verification is performed by comparing the sensitivity coefficients calculated by Wielandt method with analytical solutions, those computed by IFP method which is also implemented in RMC code for sensitivity analysis, and those from the multi-group TSUNAMI-3D module in SCALE code package. (author)

Hydraulic head interpolation using ANFIS—model selection and sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kurtulus, Bedri; Flipo, Nicolas

2012-01-01

The aim of this study is to investigate the efficiency of ANFIS (adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system) for interpolating hydraulic head in a 40-km 2 agricultural watershed of the Seine basin (France). Inputs of ANFIS are Cartesian coordinates and the elevation of the ground. Hydraulic head was measured at 73 locations during a snapshot campaign on September 2009, which characterizes low-water-flow regime in the aquifer unit. The dataset was then split into three subsets using a square-based selection method: a calibration one (55%), a training one (27%), and a test one (18%). First, a method is proposed to select the best ANFIS model, which corresponds to a sensitivity analysis of ANFIS to the type and number of membership functions (MF). Triangular, Gaussian, general bell, and spline-based MF are used with 2, 3, 4, and 5 MF per input node. Performance criteria on the test subset are used to select the 5 best ANFIS models among 16. Then each is used to interpolate the hydraulic head distribution on a (50×50)-m grid, which is compared to the soil elevation. The cells where the hydraulic head is higher than the soil elevation are counted as "error cells." The ANFIS model that exhibits the less "error cells" is selected as the best ANFIS model. The best model selection reveals that ANFIS models are very sensitive to the type and number of MF. Finally, a sensibility analysis of the best ANFIS model with four triangular MF is performed on the interpolation grid, which shows that ANFIS remains stable to error propagation with a higher sensitivity to soil elevation.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of environmental transport models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Margulies, T.S.; Lancaster, L.E.

1985-01-01

An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been made of the CRAC-2 (Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences) atmospheric transport and deposition models. Robustness and uncertainty aspects of air and ground deposited material and the relative contribution of input and model parameters were systematically studied. The underlying data structures were investigated using a multiway layout of factors over specified ranges generated via a Latin hypercube sampling scheme. The variables selected in our analysis include: weather bin, dry deposition velocity, rain washout coefficient/rain intensity, duration of release, heat content, sigma-z (vertical) plume dispersion parameter, sigma-y (crosswind) plume dispersion parameter, and mixing height. To determine the contributors to the output variability (versus distance from the site) step-wise regression analyses were performed on transformations of the spatial concentration patterns simulated. 27 references, 2 figures, 3 tables

Sensitive high performance liquid chromatographic method for the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A new simple, sensitive, cost-effective and reproducible high performance liquid chromatographic (HPLC) method for the determination of proguanil (PG) and its metabolites, cycloguanil (CG) and 4-chlorophenylbiguanide (4-CPB) in urine and plasma is described. The extraction procedure is a simple three-step process ...

Enhancement in photovoltaic performance of phthalocyanine-sensitized solar cells by attapulgite nanoparticles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin Ling; Chen Dajun

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Dye-sensitized solar cells sensitized by zinc octacarboxylic phthalocyanine. ► Attapulgite nanoparticles have been used to suppress phthalocyanine aggregation. ► Adding attapulgite improves the photovoltaic performance of the dye-sensitized solar cells. - Abstract: Attapulgite nanoparticles were used to improve photovoltaic performance of phthalocyanine-sensitized solar cells. The effects of attapulgite on the devices were investigated in details. Adding of attapulgite into TiO 2 electrodes not only reduced the adsorption of zinc octacarboxylic phthalocyanine but also prevented phthalocyanine aggregation effect, which greatly improved photovoltaic performance of the dye-sensitized solar cell. The solar cell with 10 mg attapulgite nanoparticles dispersed in the dye solution exhibited nearly three times larger photoelectric conversion efficiency under simulated AM 1.5 G irradiation (100 mW cm −2 ) when compared to the pure dye, which was further characterized by the electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). The EIS studies showed that attapulgite decreased the charge-transfer resistances at the TiO 2 /dye/electrolyte interface, which can promote electron transport.

Performance analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-05-01

This book introduces energy and resource technology development business with performance analysis, which has business division and definition, analysis of current situation of support, substance of basic plan of national energy, resource technique development, selection of analysis index, result of performance analysis by index, performance result of investigation, analysis and appraisal of energy and resource technology development business in 2007.

TRAC analysis of passive containment cooling system performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arai, Kenji; Kataoka, Kazuyoshi; Nagasaka, Hideo

1993-01-01

A passive containment cooling system (PCCS) is a promising concept to improve the reliability of decay heat removal during an accident. Toshiba has carried out analytical studies for PCCS development in addition to experimental studies, using a best estimate thermal hydraulic computer code TRAC. In order to establish an analytical model for the PCCS performance analysis, it is necessary for the analytical model to be qualified against experimental results and thoroughly address the phenomena important for PCCS performance analysis. In this paper, the TRAC qualification for PCCS application is reported. A TRAC model has been verified against a drain line break simulation test conducted at the PCCS integral test facility, GIRAFFE. The result shows that the TRAC model can accurately predict the major system response and the PCCS performance in the drain line break test. In addition, the results of several sensitivity analyses, showing various points concerning the modeling in the PCCS performance analysis, have been reported. The analyses have been carried out for the SBWR and the analytical points are closely related to important phenomena which can affect PCCS performance

Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Sallaberry, C.J.; Storlie, C.B.

2006-01-01

Sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are reviewed. The following topics are considered: (i) definition of probability distributions to characterize epistemic uncertainty in analysis inputs (ii) generation of samples from uncertain analysis inputs (iii) propagation of sampled inputs through an analysis (iv) presentation of uncertainty analysis results, and (v) determination of sensitivity analysis results. Special attention is given to the determination of sensitivity analysis results, with brief descriptions and illustrations given for the following procedures/techniques: examination of scatterplots, correlation analysis, regression analysis, partial correlation analysis, rank transformations, statistical tests for patterns based on gridding, entropy tests for patterns based on gridding, nonparametric regression analysis, squared rank differences/rank correlation coefficient test, two-dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, tests for patterns based on distance measures, top down coefficient of concordance, and variance decomposition

Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, Jay Dean; Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric J. PhD. (.; .); Storlie, Curt B. (Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO)

2006-06-01

Sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are reviewed. The following topics are considered: (1) Definition of probability distributions to characterize epistemic uncertainty in analysis inputs, (2) Generation of samples from uncertain analysis inputs, (3) Propagation of sampled inputs through an analysis, (4) Presentation of uncertainty analysis results, and (5) Determination of sensitivity analysis results. Special attention is given to the determination of sensitivity analysis results, with brief descriptions and illustrations given for the following procedures/techniques: examination of scatterplots, correlation analysis, regression analysis, partial correlation analysis, rank transformations, statistical tests for patterns based on gridding, entropy tests for patterns based on gridding, nonparametric regression analysis, squared rank differences/rank correlation coefficient test, two dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, tests for patterns based on distance measures, top down coefficient of concordance, and variance decomposition.

HCIT Contrast Performance Sensitivity Studies: Simulation Versus Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Sidick, Erkin; Shaklan, Stuart; Krist, John; Cady, Eric J.; Kern, Brian; Balasubramanian, Kunjithapatham

2013-01-01

Using NASA's High Contrast Imaging Testbed (HCIT) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, we have experimentally investigated the sensitivity of dark hole contrast in a Lyot coronagraph for the following factors: 1) Lateral and longitudinal translation of an occulting mask; 2) An opaque spot on the occulting mask; 3) Sizes of the controlled dark hole area. Also, we compared the measured results with simulations obtained using both MACOS (Modeling and Analysis for Controlled Optical Systems) and PROPER optical analysis programs with full three-dimensional near-field diffraction analysis to model HCIT's optical train and coronagraph.

Global sensitivity analysis by polynomial dimensional decomposition

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rahman, Sharif, E-mail: rahman@engineering.uiowa.ed [College of Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States)

2011-07-15

This paper presents a polynomial dimensional decomposition (PDD) method for global sensitivity analysis of stochastic systems subject to independent random input following arbitrary probability distributions. The method involves Fourier-polynomial expansions of lower-variate component functions of a stochastic response by measure-consistent orthonormal polynomial bases, analytical formulae for calculating the global sensitivity indices in terms of the expansion coefficients, and dimension-reduction integration for estimating the expansion coefficients. Due to identical dimensional structures of PDD and analysis-of-variance decomposition, the proposed method facilitates simple and direct calculation of the global sensitivity indices. Numerical results of the global sensitivity indices computed for smooth systems reveal significantly higher convergence rates of the PDD approximation than those from existing methods, including polynomial chaos expansion, random balance design, state-dependent parameter, improved Sobol's method, and sampling-based methods. However, for non-smooth functions, the convergence properties of the PDD solution deteriorate to a great extent, warranting further improvements. The computational complexity of the PDD method is polynomial, as opposed to exponential, thereby alleviating the curse of dimensionality to some extent.

Effect of vitamin K supplementation on insulin sensitivity: a meta-analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suksomboon N

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Naeti Suksomboon,1 Nalinee Poolsup,2 Htoo Darli Ko Ko1 1Department of Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; 2Department of Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, Silpakorn University, Nakhon-Pathom, Thailand Objective: To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized, placebo-controlled trials to assess the effect of vitamin K supplementation on insulin sensitivity.Data sources: MEDLINE, the Cochrane Library, CINAHL, Web of Science, Scopus, clinicaltrials.gov, and clinicaltrialresults.org were searched up to January 2017. Reference lists of related papers were also scanned.Study selection: Randomized controlled trials were selected if they compared vitamin K supplementation with placebo or no treatment and reported homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, fasting plasma glucose, fasting plasma insulin, C-reactive protein, adiponectin, leptin, or interleukin-6 levels.Data extraction: Data extraction and study quality assessment were performed independently by two investigators using a standardized data extraction form. Any inconsistencies were resolved by a third reviewer. Effect estimates were pooled using inverse-variance weighted method. Heterogeneity was assessed by the I2 and Q statistic.Results: A total of eight trials involving 1,077 participants met the inclusion criteria. A wide variety of participants were enrolled, including older men, postmenopausal women, prediabetic premenopausal women, and participants with a history of diabetes, hypertension, or vascular disease. Vitamin K1 and vitamin K2 (MK-4 and MK-7 subtypes were assessed. Supplementation period ranged from 4 weeks to 3 years. Vitamin K supplementation did not affect insulin sensitivity as measured by homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, fasting plasma glucose, fasting plasma insulin, C-reactive protein, adiponectin, leptin, and interleukin-6 levels.Conclusion: Our analysis suggests no effect of vitamin K

Effect of vitamin K supplementation on insulin sensitivity: a meta-analysis

OpenAIRE

Suksomboon,Naeti; Poolsup,Nalinee; Darli Ko Ko,Htoo

2017-01-01

Naeti Suksomboon,1 Nalinee Poolsup,2 Htoo Darli Ko Ko1 1Department of Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; 2Department of Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, Silpakorn University, Nakhon-Pathom, Thailand Objective: To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized, placebo-controlled trials to assess the effect of vitamin K supplementation on insulin sensitivity.Data sources: MEDLINE, the Cochrane Library, CINAHL, Web of Science, Scopus, clinicaltrials...

Probabilistic Analysis of Gas Turbine Field Performance

Science.gov (United States)

Gorla, Rama S. R.; Pai, Shantaram S.; Rusick, Jeffrey J.

2002-01-01

A gas turbine thermodynamic cycle was computationally simulated and probabilistically evaluated in view of the several uncertainties in the performance parameters, which are indices of gas turbine health. Cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity factors were computed for the overall thermal efficiency and net specific power output due to the thermodynamic random variables. These results can be used to quickly identify the most critical design variables in order to optimize the design, enhance performance, increase system availability and make it cost effective. The analysis leads to the selection of the appropriate measurements to be used in the gas turbine health determination and to the identification of both the most critical measurements and parameters. Probabilistic analysis aims at unifying and improving the control and health monitoring of gas turbine aero-engines by increasing the quality and quantity of information available about the engine's health and performance.

Discrete non-parametric kernel estimation for global sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senga Kiessé, Tristan; Ventura, Anne

2016-01-01

This work investigates the discrete kernel approach for evaluating the contribution of the variance of discrete input variables to the variance of model output, via analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition. Until recently only the continuous kernel approach has been applied as a metamodeling approach within sensitivity analysis framework, for both discrete and continuous input variables. Now the discrete kernel estimation is known to be suitable for smoothing discrete functions. We present a discrete non-parametric kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of a given model. An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its asymtotic convergence rate. Some simulations on a test function analysis and a real case study from agricultural have shown that the discrete kernel approach outperforms the continuous kernel one for evaluating the contribution of moderate or most influential discrete parameters to the model output. - Highlights: • We study a discrete kernel estimation for sensitivity analysis of a model. • A discrete kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of the model is presented. • Sensitivity indices are calculated for discrete input parameters. • An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its convergence rate. • An application is realized for improving the reliability of environmental models.

Diagnostic performance of computed tomography for parathyroid adenoma localization; a systematic review and meta-analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kluijfhout, Wouter P., E-mail: WPKluijfhout@gmail.com [Department of Surgery, University of California San Francisco (United States); Department of Surgery, University Medical Center Utrecht (Netherlands); Pasternak, Jesse D. [Department of Surgery, University Health Network Toronto (Canada); Beninato, Toni; Drake, Frederick Thurston; Gosnell, Jessica E.; Shen, Wen T.; Duh, Quan-Yang [Department of Surgery, University of California San Francisco (United States); Allen, Isabel E. [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco (United States); Vriens, Menno R. [Department of Surgery, University Medical Center Utrecht (Netherlands); Keizer, Bart de [Department of Radiology, University Medical Center Utrecht (Netherlands); Hope, Thomas A. [Department of Radiology, University of California San Francisco (United States); Suh, Insoo [Department of Surgery, University of California San Francisco (United States)

2017-03-15

Highlights: • CT performs well in localizing pathological parathyroid glands. • Performance of CT is less in patients with inconclusive ultrasound and sestamibi. • Addition of a third contrast phase seems to have little added value. - Abstract: Abstract purpose: To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of the sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of CT for preoperative parathyroid localization in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism (pHPT), and subsequently compare the different protocols and their performance in different patient groups. Materials and methods: We performed a search of the Embase, Pubmed and Cochrane Library databases to identify studies published between January 1, 2000 and March 31, 2016 investigating the diagnostic value of CT for parathyroid localization in patients with biochemical diagnosis of pHPT. Performance of CT was expressed in sensitivity and PPV with pooled proportion using a random-effects model. Factors that could have affected the diagnostic performance were investigated by subgroup analysis. Results: Thirty-four studies evaluating a total of 2563 patients with non-familial pHPT who underwent CT localization and surgical resection were included. Overall pooled sensitivity of CT for localization of the pathological parathyroid(s) to the correct quadrant was 73% (95% CI: 69–78%), which increased to 81% (95% CI: 75–87%) for lateralization to the correct side. Subgroup analysis based on the number of contrast phases showed that adding a second contrast phase raises sensitivity from 71% (95% CI: 61–80%) to 76% (95% CI: 71–87%), and that adding a third phase resulted in a more modest additional increase in performance with a sensitivity of 80% (95% CI: 74–86%). Conclusion: CT performs well in localizing pathological glands in patients with pHPT. A protocol with two contrast phases seems to offer a good balance of acceptable performance with limitation of radiation exposure.

Beyond sensitivity analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Henrik; Sorknæs, Peter; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

2018-01-01

of electricity, which have been introduced in recent decades. These uncertainties pose a challenge to the design and assessment of future energy strategies and investments, especially in the economic assessment of renewable energy versus business-as-usual scenarios based on fossil fuels. From a methodological...... point of view, the typical way of handling this challenge has been to predict future prices as accurately as possible and then conduct a sensitivity analysis. This paper includes a historical analysis of such predictions, leading to the conclusion that they are almost always wrong. Not only...... are they wrong in their prediction of price levels, but also in the sense that they always seem to predict a smooth growth or decrease. This paper introduces a new method and reports the results of applying it on the case of energy scenarios for Denmark. The method implies the expectation of fluctuating fuel...

Control strategies and sensitivity analysis of anthroponotic visceral leishmaniasis model.

Science.gov (United States)

Zamir, Muhammad; Zaman, Gul; Alshomrani, Ali Saleh

2017-12-01

This study proposes a mathematical model of Anthroponotic visceral leishmaniasis epidemic with saturated infection rate and recommends different control strategies to manage the spread of this disease in the community. To do this, first, a model formulation is presented to support these strategies, with quantifications of transmission and intervention parameters. To understand the nature of the initial transmission of the disease, the reproduction number [Formula: see text] is obtained by using the next-generation method. On the basis of sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number [Formula: see text], four different control strategies are proposed for managing disease transmission. For quantification of the prevalence period of the disease, a numerical simulation for each strategy is performed and a detailed summary is presented. Disease-free state is obtained with the help of control strategies. The threshold condition for globally asymptotic stability of the disease-free state is found, and it is ascertained that the state is globally stable. On the basis of sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number, it is shown that the disease can be eradicated by using the proposed strategies.

Robust prediction of anti-cancer drug sensitivity and sensitivity-specific biomarker.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heewon Park

Full Text Available The personal genomics era has attracted a large amount of attention for anti-cancer therapy by patient-specific analysis. Patient-specific analysis enables discovery of individual genomic characteristics for each patient, and thus we can effectively predict individual genetic risk of disease and perform personalized anti-cancer therapy. Although the existing methods for patient-specific analysis have successfully uncovered crucial biomarkers, their performance takes a sudden turn for the worst in the presence of outliers, since the methods are based on non-robust manners. In practice, clinical and genomic alterations datasets usually contain outliers from various sources (e.g., experiment error, coding error, etc. and the outliers may significantly affect the result of patient-specific analysis. We propose a robust methodology for patient-specific analysis in line with the NetwrokProfiler. In the proposed method, outliers in high dimensional gene expression levels and drug response datasets are simultaneously controlled by robust Mahalanobis distance in robust principal component space. Thus, we can effectively perform for predicting anti-cancer drug sensitivity and identifying sensitivity-specific biomarkers for individual patients. We observe through Monte Carlo simulations that the proposed robust method produces outstanding performances for predicting response variable in the presence of outliers. We also apply the proposed methodology to the Sanger dataset in order to uncover cancer biomarkers and predict anti-cancer drug sensitivity, and show the effectiveness of our method.

Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

THE ROLE OF ETHICAL SENSITIVITY AND SELF-ESTEEM ON ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE IN ACCOUNTING COURSE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emine Yilmaz Karakoc

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The main objective of the current study is to investigate whether ethical sensitivity and selfesteem affect the academic performance of business students in financial accounting course. Also, the relationships among self-esteem - ethical sensitivity - cynicism were examined. The data was gathered from students in undergraduate business program of one public university in Turkey via questionnaire. Factor, reliability and regression analyses were conducted to analyze the data and to test hypotheses of the study. The results showed that ethical sensitivity and selfesteem have positive effect on academic performance. Self–esteem has positive impact on ethical sensitivity. In addition, results displayed that cynicism negatively affects the ethical sensitivity of students. It was also found that ethical sensitivity has mediation effect on the relationship between self-esteem and academic performance.

Sensitivity analysis of infectious disease models: methods, advances and their application

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jianyong; Dhingra, Radhika; Gambhir, Manoj; Remais, Justin V.

2013-01-01

Sensitivity analysis (SA) can aid in identifying influential model parameters and optimizing model structure, yet infectious disease modelling has yet to adopt advanced SA techniques that are capable of providing considerable insights over traditional methods. We investigate five global SA methods—scatter plots, the Morris and Sobol’ methods, Latin hypercube sampling-partial rank correlation coefficient and the sensitivity heat map method—and detail their relative merits and pitfalls when applied to a microparasite (cholera) and macroparasite (schistosomaisis) transmission model. The methods investigated yielded similar results with respect to identifying influential parameters, but offered specific insights that vary by method. The classical methods differed in their ability to provide information on the quantitative relationship between parameters and model output, particularly over time. The heat map approach provides information about the group sensitivity of all model state variables, and the parameter sensitivity spectrum obtained using this method reveals the sensitivity of all state variables to each parameter over the course of the simulation period, especially valuable for expressing the dynamic sensitivity of a microparasite epidemic model to its parameters. A summary comparison is presented to aid infectious disease modellers in selecting appropriate methods, with the goal of improving model performance and design. PMID:23864497

Effect of Uncertainties in Physical Property Estimates on Process Design - Sensitivity Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hukkerikar, Amol; Jones, Mark Nicholas; Sin, Gürkan

for performing sensitivity of process design subject to uncertainties in the property estimates. To this end, first uncertainty analysis of the property models of pure components and their mixtures was performed in order to obtain the uncertainties in the estimated property values. As a next step, sensitivity......Chemical process design calculations require accurate and reliable physical and thermodynamic property data and property models of pure components and their mixtures in order to obtain reliable design parameters which help to achieve desired specifications. The uncertainties in the property values...... can arise from the experiments itself or from the property models employed. It is important to consider the effect of these uncertainties on the process design in order to assess the quality and reliability of the final design. The main objective of this work is to develop a systematic methodology...

Sensitivity Analysis for Design Optimization Integrated Software Tools, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of this proposed project is to provide a new set of sensitivity analysis theory and codes, the Sensitivity Analysis for Design Optimization Integrated...

The derivative based variance sensitivity analysis for the distribution parameters and its computation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Pan; Lu, Zhenzhou; Ren, Bo; Cheng, Lei

2013-01-01

The output variance is an important measure for the performance of a structural system, and it is always influenced by the distribution parameters of inputs. In order to identify the influential distribution parameters and make it clear that how those distribution parameters influence the output variance, this work presents the derivative based variance sensitivity decomposition according to Sobol′s variance decomposition, and proposes the derivative based main and total sensitivity indices. By transforming the derivatives of various orders variance contributions into the form of expectation via kernel function, the proposed main and total sensitivity indices can be seen as the “by-product” of Sobol′s variance based sensitivity analysis without any additional output evaluation. Since Sobol′s variance based sensitivity indices have been computed efficiently by the sparse grid integration method, this work also employs the sparse grid integration method to compute the derivative based main and total sensitivity indices. Several examples are used to demonstrate the rationality of the proposed sensitivity indices and the accuracy of the applied method

Application of Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis to Integrated Force Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. F. Wei

2012-01-01

Full Text Available As a new formulation in structural analysis, Integrated Force Method has been successfully applied to many structures for civil, mechanical, and aerospace engineering due to the accurate estimate of forces in computation. Right now, it is being further extended to the probabilistic domain. For the assessment of uncertainty effect in system optimization and identification, the probabilistic sensitivity analysis of IFM was further investigated in this study. A set of stochastic sensitivity analysis formulation of Integrated Force Method was developed using the perturbation method. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate its application. Its efficiency and accuracy were also substantiated with direct Monte Carlo simulations and the reliability-based sensitivity method. The numerical algorithm was shown to be readily adaptable to the existing program since the models of stochastic finite element and stochastic design sensitivity are almost identical.

Analytical methods for large-scale sensitivity analysis using GRESS [GRadient Enhanced Software System] and ADGEN [Automated Adjoint Generator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pin, F.G.

1988-04-01

Sensitivity analysis is an established methodology used by researchers in almost every field to gain essential insight in design and modeling studies and in performance assessments of complex systems. Conventional sensitivity analysis methodologies, however, have not enjoyed the widespread use they deserve considering the wealth of information they can provide, partly because of their prohibitive cost or the large initial analytical investment they require. Automated systems have recently been developed at ORNL to eliminate these drawbacks. Compilers such as GRESS and ADGEN now allow automatic and cost effective calculation of sensitivities in FORTRAN computer codes. In this paper, these and other related tools are described and their impact and applicability in the general areas of modeling, performance assessment and decision making for radioactive waste isolation problems are discussed. 7 refs., 2 figs

Ultra-sensitive high performance liquid chromatography-laser-induced fluorescence based proteomics for clinical applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Patil, Ajeetkumar; Bhat, Sujatha; Pai, Keerthilatha M; Rai, Lavanya; Kartha, V B; Chidangil, Santhosh

2015-09-08

An ultra-sensitive high performance liquid chromatography-laser induced fluorescence (HPLC-LIF) based technique has been developed by our group at Manipal, for screening, early detection, and staging for various cancers, using protein profiling of clinical samples like, body fluids, cellular specimens, and biopsy-tissue. More than 300 protein profiles of different clinical samples (serum, saliva, cellular samples and tissue homogenates) from volunteers (normal, and different pre-malignant/malignant conditions) were recorded using this set-up. The protein profiles were analyzed using principal component analysis (PCA) to achieve objective detection and classification of malignant, premalignant and healthy conditions with high sensitivity and specificity. The HPLC-LIF protein profiling combined with PCA, as a routine method for screening, diagnosis, and staging of cervical cancer and oral cancer, is discussed in this paper. In recent years, proteomics techniques have advanced tremendously in life sciences and medical sciences for the detection and identification of proteins in body fluids, tissue homogenates and cellular samples to understand biochemical mechanisms leading to different diseases. Some of the methods include techniques like high performance liquid chromatography, 2D-gel electrophoresis, MALDI-TOF-MS, SELDI-TOF-MS, CE-MS and LC-MS techniques. We have developed an ultra-sensitive high performance liquid chromatography-laser induced fluorescence (HPLC-LIF) based technique, for screening, early detection, and staging for various cancers, using protein profiling of clinical samples like, body fluids, cellular specimens, and biopsy-tissue. More than 300 protein profiles of different clinical samples (serum, saliva, cellular samples and tissue homogenates) from healthy and volunteers with different malignant conditions were recorded by using this set-up. The protein profile data were analyzed using principal component analysis (PCA) for objective

Modelling pesticides volatilisation in greenhouses: Sensitivity analysis of a modified PEARL model.

Science.gov (United States)

Houbraken, Michael; Doan Ngoc, Kim; van den Berg, Frederik; Spanoghe, Pieter

2017-12-01

The application of the existing PEARL model was extended to include estimations of the concentration of crop protection products in greenhouse (indoor) air due to volatilisation from the plant surface. The model was modified to include the processes of ventilation of the greenhouse air to the outside atmosphere and transformation in the air. A sensitivity analysis of the model was performed by varying selected input parameters on a one-by-one basis and comparing the model outputs with the outputs of the reference scenarios. The sensitivity analysis indicates that - in addition to vapour pressure - the model had the highest ratio of variation for the rate ventilation rate and thickness of the boundary layer on the day of application. On the days after application, competing processes, degradation and uptake in the plant, becomes more important. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity analysis techniques applied to a system of hyperbolic conservation laws

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weirs, V. Gregory; Kamm, James R.; Swiler, Laura P.; Tarantola, Stefano; Ratto, Marco; Adams, Brian M.; Rider, William J.; Eldred, Michael S.

2012-01-01

Sensitivity analysis is comprised of techniques to quantify the effects of the input variables on a set of outputs. In particular, sensitivity indices can be used to infer which input parameters most significantly affect the results of a computational model. With continually increasing computing power, sensitivity analysis has become an important technique by which to understand the behavior of large-scale computer simulations. Many sensitivity analysis methods rely on sampling from distributions of the inputs. Such sampling-based methods can be computationally expensive, requiring many evaluations of the simulation; in this case, the Sobol' method provides an easy and accurate way to compute variance-based measures, provided a sufficient number of model evaluations are available. As an alternative, meta-modeling approaches have been devised to approximate the response surface and estimate various measures of sensitivity. In this work, we consider a variety of sensitivity analysis methods, including different sampling strategies, different meta-models, and different ways of evaluating variance-based sensitivity indices. The problem we consider is the 1-D Riemann problem. By a careful choice of inputs, discontinuous solutions are obtained, leading to discontinuous response surfaces; such surfaces can be particularly problematic for meta-modeling approaches. The goal of this study is to compare the estimated sensitivity indices with exact values and to evaluate the convergence of these estimates with increasing samples sizes and under an increasing number of meta-model evaluations. - Highlights: ► Sensitivity analysis techniques for a model shock physics problem are compared. ► The model problem and the sensitivity analysis problem have exact solutions. ► Subtle details of the method for computing sensitivity indices can affect the results.

Investigating the role of graphene in the photovoltaic performance improvement of dye-sensitized solar cell

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tripathi, Brijesh, E-mail: brijesh.tripathi@sse.pdpu.ac.in [School of Technology, Pandit Deendayal Petroleum University, Gandhinagar 382007 (India); School of Solar Energy, Pandit Deendayal Petroleum University, Gandhinagar 382007 (India); Yadav, Pankaj; Pandey, Kavita; Kanade, Pooja [School of Solar Energy, Pandit Deendayal Petroleum University, Gandhinagar 382007 (India); Kumar, Manjeet [Department of Materials Engineering, Defence Institute of Advanced Technology, Pune 411025 (India); Kumar, Manoj, E-mail: manoj.kumar@sse.pdpu.ac.in [School of Technology, Pandit Deendayal Petroleum University, Gandhinagar 382007 (India)

2014-12-15

Highlights: • Graphene catalytic activity in dye-sensitized solar cell is evaluated. • Two-diode model is used for performance evaluation. • Optical performance of graphene is analyzed. • 36% increase in efficiency has been reported using graphene-coupled counter electrode. - Abstract: This article compares and describes the photovoltaic performance of dye-sensitized solar cell (DSSC) consisting of platinum (Pt) and graphene-coupled-platinum based counter electrodes (CE). The power conversion efficiency of DSSC could be enhanced by 36% with multi-layer graphene flakes (MGF)/Pt CE as compared to Pt CE. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and cyclic voltammetry analysis show that DSSC with an MGF/Pt CE exhibits a higher electro-catalytic activity with lower series resistance. Two-diode model has been used to extract the recombination governing and the performance indicating parameters of a DSSC. An enhancement of ≈76% in short-circuit current of MGF/CE based DSSC, as compared to Pt CE, could be attributed to optical and catalytic properties of graphene. This study provides an insight into electronic transport mechanism of DSSC, which changes under the influence of highly catalytic materials such as graphene.

Investigating the role of graphene in the photovoltaic performance improvement of dye-sensitized solar cell

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tripathi, Brijesh; Yadav, Pankaj; Pandey, Kavita; Kanade, Pooja; Kumar, Manjeet; Kumar, Manoj

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Graphene catalytic activity in dye-sensitized solar cell is evaluated. • Two-diode model is used for performance evaluation. • Optical performance of graphene is analyzed. • 36% increase in efficiency has been reported using graphene-coupled counter electrode. - Abstract: This article compares and describes the photovoltaic performance of dye-sensitized solar cell (DSSC) consisting of platinum (Pt) and graphene-coupled-platinum based counter electrodes (CE). The power conversion efficiency of DSSC could be enhanced by 36% with multi-layer graphene flakes (MGF)/Pt CE as compared to Pt CE. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and cyclic voltammetry analysis show that DSSC with an MGF/Pt CE exhibits a higher electro-catalytic activity with lower series resistance. Two-diode model has been used to extract the recombination governing and the performance indicating parameters of a DSSC. An enhancement of ≈76% in short-circuit current of MGF/CE based DSSC, as compared to Pt CE, could be attributed to optical and catalytic properties of graphene. This study provides an insight into electronic transport mechanism of DSSC, which changes under the influence of highly catalytic materials such as graphene

Adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure of Markov chains with applications on reliability of IFMIF accelerator-system facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Balan, I.

2005-05-01

This work presents the implementation of the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure (ASAP) for the Continuous Time, Discrete Space Markov chains (CTMC), as an alternative to the other computational expensive methods. In order to develop this procedure as an end product in reliability studies, the reliability of the physical systems is analyzed using a coupled Fault-Tree - Markov chain technique, i.e. the abstraction of the physical system is performed using as the high level interface the Fault-Tree and afterwards this one is automatically converted into a Markov chain. The resulting differential equations based on the Markov chain model are solved in order to evaluate the system reliability. Further sensitivity analyses using ASAP applied to CTMC equations are performed to study the influence of uncertainties in input data to the reliability measures and to get the confidence in the final reliability results. The methods to generate the Markov chain and the ASAP for the Markov chain equations have been implemented into the new computer code system QUEFT/MARKOMAGS/MCADJSEN for reliability and sensitivity analysis of physical systems. The validation of this code system has been carried out by using simple problems for which analytical solutions can be obtained. Typical sensitivity results show that the numerical solution using ASAP is robust, stable and accurate. The method and the code system developed during this work can be used further as an efficient and flexible tool to evaluate the sensitivities of reliability measures for any physical system analyzed using the Markov chain. Reliability and sensitivity analyses using these methods have been performed during this work for the IFMIF Accelerator System Facilities. The reliability studies using Markov chain have been concentrated around the availability of the main subsystems of this complex physical system for a typical mission time. The sensitivity studies for two typical responses using ASAP have been

Calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis: What's what

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trucano, T.G.; Swiler, L.P.; Igusa, T.; Oberkampf, W.L.; Pilch, M.

2006-01-01

One very simple interpretation of calibration is to adjust a set of parameters associated with a computational science and engineering code so that the model agreement is maximized with respect to a set of experimental data. One very simple interpretation of validation is to quantify our belief in the predictive capability of a computational code through comparison with a set of experimental data. Uncertainty in both the data and the code are important and must be mathematically understood to correctly perform both calibration and validation. Sensitivity analysis, being an important methodology in uncertainty analysis, is thus important to both calibration and validation. In this paper, we intend to clarify the language just used and express some opinions on the associated issues. We will endeavor to identify some technical challenges that must be resolved for successful validation of a predictive modeling capability. One of these challenges is a formal description of a 'model discrepancy' term. Another challenge revolves around the general adaptation of abstract learning theory as a formalism that potentially encompasses both calibration and validation in the face of model uncertainty

Beyond the GUM: variance-based sensitivity analysis in metrology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lira, I

2016-01-01

Variance-based sensitivity analysis is a well established tool for evaluating the contribution of the uncertainties in the inputs to the uncertainty in the output of a general mathematical model. While the literature on this subject is quite extensive, it has not found widespread use in metrological applications. In this article we present a succinct review of the fundamentals of sensitivity analysis, in a form that should be useful to most people familiarized with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM). Through two examples, it is shown that in linear measurement models, no new knowledge is gained by using sensitivity analysis that is not already available after the terms in the so-called ‘law of propagation of uncertainties’ have been computed. However, if the model behaves non-linearly in the neighbourhood of the best estimates of the input quantities—and if these quantities are assumed to be statistically independent—sensitivity analysis is definitely advantageous for gaining insight into how they can be ranked according to their importance in establishing the uncertainty of the measurand. (paper)

Modeling and sensitivity analysis of consensus algorithm based distributed hierarchical control for dc microgrids

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Meng, Lexuan; Dragicevic, Tomislav; Vasquez, Juan Carlos

2015-01-01

of dynamic study. The aim of this paper is to model the complete DC microgrid system in z-domain and perform sensitivity analysis for the complete system. A generalized modeling method is proposed and the system dynamics under different control parameters, communication topologies and communication speed...

Discussion on the Standardization of Shielding Materials — Sensitivity Analysis of Material Compositions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ogata Tomohiro

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The overview of standardization activities for shielding materials is described. We propose a basic approach for standardizing material composition used in radiation shielding design for nuclear and accelerator facilities. We have collected concrete composition data from actual concrete samples to organize a representative composition and its variance data. Then the sensitivity analysis of the composition variance has been performed through a simple 1-D dose calculation. Recent findings from the analysis are summarized.

Mobility Sensitivity Analysis for LTE-Advanced HetNet Deployments with Dual Connectivity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barbera, Simone; Gimenez, Lucas Chavarria; Sanchez, Maria Laura Luque

2015-01-01

A mobility performance sensitivity analysis is presented for Dual Connectivity cases where the users can be served simultaneously by a macro and a small cell. The performance is assessed for the 3GPP generic simulation scenario and for two site specific cases, with the aim of comparing the results...... coming from these different scenarios. The site-specific scenarios are based on detailed topography map data and advanced ray-tracing techniques. It is generally found that the first order statistics and overall conclusions are in good alignment for the considered environments. However, there are also...

Stochastic sensitivity analysis and Langevin simulation for neural network learning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koda, Masato

1997-01-01

A comprehensive theoretical framework is proposed for the learning of a class of gradient-type neural networks with an additive Gaussian white noise process. The study is based on stochastic sensitivity analysis techniques, and formal expressions are obtained for stochastic learning laws in terms of functional derivative sensitivity coefficients. The present method, based on Langevin simulation techniques, uses only the internal states of the network and ubiquitous noise to compute the learning information inherent in the stochastic correlation between noise signals and the performance functional. In particular, the method does not require the solution of adjoint equations of the back-propagation type. Thus, the present algorithm has the potential for efficiently learning network weights with significantly fewer computations. Application to an unfolded multi-layered network is described, and the results are compared with those obtained by using a back-propagation method

Sensitivity analysis of repairable redundant system with switching failure and geometric reneging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chandra Shekhar

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This study deals with the performance modeling and reliability analysis of a redundant machining system composed of several functional machines. To analyze the more realistic scenarios, the concepts of switching failure and geometric reneging are included. The time-to-breakdown and repair time of operating and standby machines are assumed to follow the exponential distribution. For the quantitative assessment of the machine interference problem, various performance measures such as mean-time-to-failure, reliability, reneging rate, etc. have been formulated. To show the practicability of the developed model, a numerical illustration has been presented. For the practical justification and validity of the results established, the sensitivity analysis of reliability indices has been presented by varying different system descriptors.

Sensitivity analysis of system parameters on the performance of the Organic Rankine Cycle system for binary-cycle geothermal power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Xiaomin; Wang, Xing; Zhang, Chuhua

2014-01-01

The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the sensitivity of system parameters to the performance of the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) system quantitatively. A thermodynamic model of the ORC system for binary-cycle geothermal power plants has been developed and verified. The system parameters, such as working fluid, superheat temperature, pinch temperature difference in evaporator and condenser, evaporating temperature, the isentropic efficiencies of the cycle pump and radial inflow turbine are selected as six factors for orthogonal design. The order of factors sensitivity on performance indices of the net power output of the ORC system, the thermal efficiency, the size parameter of radial inflow turbine, the power decrease factor of the pump and the total heat transfer capacity are determined by the range obtained from the orthogonal design. At different geothermal temperatures, the ranges of the six factors corresponding to performance indices are analyzed respectively. The results show that the geothermal temperature influences the range of the factors to the net power output, SP factor of radial inflow turbine, and the total heat transfer capacity, but it has no effect for the range of the factors for the thermal efficiency and the power decrease factor of the pump. The evaporating temperature is always the primary or secondary factor that influence the thermodynamic and economic performance of the ORC system. This study would provide useful references for determining the proper design variables in the performance optimization of the ORC system at different geothermal temperatures. - Highlights: • Evaporating temperature has significant effect on performance of ORC system. • Order of system parameters' sensitivity to the performance of ORC is revealed. • Effect of system parameters on performance indices vary with geothermal temperature. • Geothermal temperature has no effect on range of six factors to the size of turbine

Dynamic Resonance Sensitivity Analysis in Wind Farms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ebrahimzadeh, Esmaeil; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Xiongfei

2017-01-01

(PFs) are calculated by critical eigenvalue sensitivity analysis versus the entries of the MIMO matrix. The PF analysis locates the most exciting bus of the resonances, where can be the best location to install the passive or active filters to reduce the harmonic resonance problems. Time...

Sensitivity analysis technique for application to deterministic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishigami, T.; Cazzoli, E.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Unwin, S.D.

1987-01-01

The characterization of sever accident source terms for light water reactors should include consideration of uncertainties. An important element of any uncertainty analysis is an evaluation of the sensitivity of the output probability distributions reflecting source term uncertainties to assumptions regarding the input probability distributions. Historically, response surface methods (RSMs) were developed to replace physical models using, for example, regression techniques, with simplified models for example, regression techniques, with simplified models for extensive calculations. The purpose of this paper is to present a new method for sensitivity analysis that does not utilize RSM, but instead relies directly on the results obtained from the original computer code calculations. The merits of this approach are demonstrated by application of the proposed method to the suppression pool aerosol removal code (SPARC), and the results are compared with those obtained by sensitivity analysis with (a) the code itself, (b) a regression model, and (c) Iman's method

Parametric sensitivity analysis for stochastic molecular systems using information theoretic metrics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tsourtis, Anastasios, E-mail: tsourtis@uoc.gr [Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Crete, Crete (Greece); Pantazis, Yannis, E-mail: pantazis@math.umass.edu; Katsoulakis, Markos A., E-mail: markos@math.umass.edu [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 (United States); Harmandaris, Vagelis, E-mail: harman@uoc.gr [Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Crete, and Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics (IACM), Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas (FORTH), GR-70013 Heraklion, Crete (Greece)

2015-07-07

In this paper, we present a parametric sensitivity analysis (SA) methodology for continuous time and continuous space Markov processes represented by stochastic differential equations. Particularly, we focus on stochastic molecular dynamics as described by the Langevin equation. The utilized SA method is based on the computation of the information-theoretic (and thermodynamic) quantity of relative entropy rate (RER) and the associated Fisher information matrix (FIM) between path distributions, and it is an extension of the work proposed by Y. Pantazis and M. A. Katsoulakis [J. Chem. Phys. 138, 054115 (2013)]. A major advantage of the pathwise SA method is that both RER and pathwise FIM depend only on averages of the force field; therefore, they are tractable and computable as ergodic averages from a single run of the molecular dynamics simulation both in equilibrium and in non-equilibrium steady state regimes. We validate the performance of the extended SA method to two different molecular stochastic systems, a standard Lennard-Jones fluid and an all-atom methane liquid, and compare the obtained parameter sensitivities with parameter sensitivities on three popular and well-studied observable functions, namely, the radial distribution function, the mean squared displacement, and the pressure. Results show that the RER-based sensitivities are highly correlated with the observable-based sensitivities.

Probability density adjoint for sensitivity analysis of the Mean of Chaos

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blonigan, Patrick J., E-mail: blonigan@mit.edu; Wang, Qiqi, E-mail: qiqi@mit.edu

2014-08-01

Sensitivity analysis, especially adjoint based sensitivity analysis, is a powerful tool for engineering design which allows for the efficient computation of sensitivities with respect to many parameters. However, these methods break down when used to compute sensitivities of long-time averaged quantities in chaotic dynamical systems. This paper presents a new method for sensitivity analysis of ergodic chaotic dynamical systems, the density adjoint method. The method involves solving the governing equations for the system's invariant measure and its adjoint on the system's attractor manifold rather than in phase-space. This new approach is derived for and demonstrated on one-dimensional chaotic maps and the three-dimensional Lorenz system. It is found that the density adjoint computes very finely detailed adjoint distributions and accurate sensitivities, but suffers from large computational costs.

On uncertainty and local sensitivity analysis for transient conjugate heat transfer problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rauch, Christian

2012-01-01

The need for simulating real-world behavior of automobiles has led to more and more sophisticated models being added of various physical phenomena for being coupled together. This increases the number of parameters to be set and, consequently, the required knowledge of their relative importance for the solution and the theory behind them. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis provides the knowledge of parameter importance. In this paper a thermal radiation solver is considered that performs conduction calculations and receives heat transfer coefficient and fluid temperate at a thermal node. The equations of local, discrete, and transient sensitivities for the conjugate heat transfer model solved by the finite difference method are being derived for some parameters. In the past, formulations for the finite element method have been published. This paper builds on the steady-state formulation published previously by the author. A numerical analysis on the stability of the solution matrix is being conducted. From those normalized sensitivity coefficients are calculated dimensionless uncertainty factors. On a simplified example the relative importance of the heat transfer modes at various locations is then investigated by those uncertainty factors and their changes over time

Sensitivity analysis of thermal hydraulic response in containment at core meltdown accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kobayashi, Kensuke; Ishigami, Tsutomu; Horii, Hideo; Chiba, Takemi.

1985-01-01

A sensitivity analysis of thermal hydraulic response in a containment during a 'station blackout' (the loss of all AC power) accident at Browns Ferry unit one plant was performed with the computer code MARCH 1.0. In the analysis, the plant station batteries were assumed to be available for 4h after the initiation of the accident. The thermal hydraulic response in the containment was calculated by varying several input data for MARCH 1.0 independently and the deviation among calculated results were investigated. The sensitivity analysis showed that (a) the containment would fail due to the overtemperature without any operator actions for plant recovery, which would be strongly dependent on the model of the debris-concrete interaction and the input parameters for specifying the containment failure modes in MARCH 1.0, (b) a core melting temperature and an amount of water left in a primary system at the end of the meltdown were identified as important parameters which influenced the time of the containment failure, and (c) experimental works regarding the parameters mentioned above could be recommended. (author)

Predicting the fate of micropollutants during wastewater treatment: Calibration and sensitivity analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Baalbaki, Zeina; Torfs, Elena; Yargeau, Viviane; Vanrolleghem, Peter A

2017-12-01

The presence of micropollutants in the environment and their toxic impacts on the aquatic environment have raised concern about their inefficient removal in wastewater treatment plants. In this study, the fate of micropollutants of four different classes was simulated in a conventional activated sludge plant using a bioreactor micropollutant fate model coupled to a settler model. The latter was based on the Bürger-Diehl model extended for the first time to include micropollutant fate processes. Calibration of model parameters was completed by matching modelling results with full-scale measurements (i.e. including aqueous and particulate phase concentrations of micropollutants) obtained from a 4-day sampling campaign. Modelling results showed that further biodegradation takes place in the sludge blanket of the settler for the highly biodegradable caffeine, underlining the need for a reactive settler model. The adopted Monte Carlo based calibration approach also provided an overview of the model's global sensitivity to the parameters. This analysis showed that for each micropollutant and according to the dominant fate process, a different set of one or more parameters had a significant impact on the model fit, justifying the selection of parameter subsets for model calibration. A dynamic local sensitivity analysis was also performed with the calibrated parameters. This analysis supported the conclusions from the global sensitivity and provided guidance for future sampling campaigns. This study expands the understanding of micropollutant fate models when applied to different micropollutants, in terms of global and local sensitivity to model parameters, as well as the identifiability of the parameters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global Sensitivity Analysis of High Speed Shaft Subsystem of a Wind Turbine Drive Train

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saeed Asadi

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The wind turbine dynamics are complex and critical area of study for the wind industry. Quantification of the effective factors to wind turbine performance is valuable for making improvements to both power performance and turbine health. In this paper, the global sensitivity analysis of validated mathematical model for high speed shaft drive train test rig has been developed in order to evaluate the contribution of systems input parameters to the specified objective functions. The drive train in this study consists of a 3-phase induction motor, flexible shafts, shafts’ coupling, bearing housing, and disk with an eccentric mass. The governing equations were derived by using the Lagrangian formalism and were solved numerically by Newmark method. The variance based global sensitivity indices are introduced to evaluate the contribution of input structural parameters correlated to the objective functions. The conclusion from the current research provides informative beneficial data in terms of design and optimization of a drive train setup and also can provide better understanding of wind turbine drive train system dynamics with respect to different structural parameters, ultimately designing more efficient drive trains. Finally, the proposed global sensitivity analysis (GSA methodology demonstrates the detectability of faults in different components.

A combined sensitivity analysis and kriging surrogate modeling for early validation of health indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lamoureux, Benjamin; Mechbal, Nazih; Massé, Jean-Rémi

2014-01-01

To increase the dependability of complex systems, one solution is to assess their state of health continuously through the monitoring of variables sensitive to potential degradation modes. When computed in an operating environment, these variables, known as health indicators, are subject to many uncertainties. Hence, the stochastic nature of health assessment combined with the lack of data in design stages makes it difficult to evaluate the efficiency of a health indicator before the system enters into service. This paper introduces a method for early validation of health indicators during the design stages of a system development process. This method uses physics-based modeling and uncertainties propagation to create simulated stochastic data. However, because of the large number of parameters defining the model and its computation duration, the necessary runtime for uncertainties propagation is prohibitive. Thus, kriging is used to obtain low computation time estimations of the model outputs. Moreover, sensitivity analysis techniques are performed upstream to determine the hierarchization of the model parameters and to reduce the dimension of the input space. The validation is based on three types of numerical key performance indicators corresponding to the detection, identification and prognostic processes. After having introduced and formalized the framework of uncertain systems modeling and the different performance metrics, the issues of sensitivity analysis and surrogate modeling are addressed. The method is subsequently applied to the validation of a set of health indicators for the monitoring of an aircraft engine’s pumping unit

Diagnostic performance of 18F-dihydroxyphenylalanine positron emission tomography in patients with paraganglioma: a meta-analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Treglia, Giorgio; Cocciolillo, Fabrizio; Castaldi, Paola; Rufini, Vittoria; Giordano, Alessandro; De Waure, Chiara; Di Nardo, Francesco; Gualano, Maria Rosaria

2012-01-01

The aim of this study was to systematically review and conduct a meta-analysis of published data about the diagnostic performance of 18 F-dihydroxyphenylalanine (DOPA) positron emission tomography (PET) in patients with paraganglioma (PG). A comprehensive computer literature search of studies published through 30 June 2011 regarding 18 F-DOPA PET or PET/computed tomography (PET/CT) in patients with PG was performed in PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase and Scopus databases. Pooled sensitivity and specificity of 18 F-DOPA PET or PET/CT in patients with PG on a per patient- and on a per lesion-based analysis were calculated. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated to measure the accuracy of 18 F-DOPA PET or PET/CT in patients with PG. Furthermore, a sub-analysis taking into account the different genetic mutations in PG patients was also performed. Eleven studies comprising 275 patients with suspected PG were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity of 18 F-DOPA PET and PET/CT in detecting PG was 91% [95% confidence interval (CI) 87-94%] on a per patient-based analysis and 79% (95% CI 76-81%) on a per lesion-based analysis. The pooled specificity of 18 F-DOPA PET and PET/CT in detecting PG was 95% (95% CI 86-99%) on a per patient-based analysis and 95% (95% CI 84-99%) on a per lesion-based analysis. The area under the ROC curve was 0.95 on a per patient- and 0.94 on a per lesion-based analysis. Heterogeneity between the studies about sensitivity of 18 F-DOPA PET or PET/CT was found. A significant increase in sensitivity of 18 F-DOPA PET or PET/CT was observed when a sub-analysis excluding patients with succinate dehydrogenase subunit B (SDHB) gene mutations was performed. In patients with suspected PG 18 F-DOPA PET or PET/CT demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity. 18 F-DOPA PET or PET/CT are accurate methods in this setting. Nevertheless, possible sources of false-negative results should be kept in mind. Furthermore

Diagnostic performance of 18F-dihydroxyphenylalanine positron emission tomography in patients with paraganglioma: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Treglia, Giorgio; Cocciolillo, Fabrizio; de Waure, Chiara; Di Nardo, Francesco; Gualano, Maria Rosaria; Castaldi, Paola; Rufini, Vittoria; Giordano, Alessandro

2012-07-01

The aim of this study was to systematically review and conduct a meta-analysis of published data about the diagnostic performance of (18)F-dihydroxyphenylalanine (DOPA) positron emission tomography (PET) in patients with paraganglioma (PG). A comprehensive computer literature search of studies published through 30 June 2011 regarding (18)F-DOPA PET or PET/computed tomography (PET/CT) in patients with PG was performed in PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase and Scopus databases. Pooled sensitivity and specificity of (18)F-DOPA PET or PET/CT in patients with PG on a per patient- and on a per lesion-based analysis were calculated. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated to measure the accuracy of (18)F-DOPA PET or PET/CT in patients with PG. Furthermore, a sub-analysis taking into account the different genetic mutations in PG patients was also performed. Eleven studies comprising 275 patients with suspected PG were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity of (18)F-DOPA PET and PET/CT in detecting PG was 91% [95% confidence interval (CI) 87-94%] on a per patient-based analysis and 79% (95% CI 76-81%) on a per lesion-based analysis. The pooled specificity of (18)F-DOPA PET and PET/CT in detecting PG was 95% (95% CI 86-99%) on a per patient-based analysis and 95% (95% CI 84-99%) on a per lesion-based analysis. The area under the ROC curve was 0.95 on a per patient- and 0.94 on a per lesion-based analysis. Heterogeneity between the studies about sensitivity of (18)F-DOPA PET or PET/CT was found. A significant increase in sensitivity of (18)F-DOPA PET or PET/CT was observed when a sub-analysis excluding patients with succinate dehydrogenase subunit B (SDHB) gene mutations was performed. In patients with suspected PG (18)F-DOPA PET or PET/CT demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity. (18)F-DOPA PET or PET/CT are accurate methods in this setting. Nevertheless, possible sources of false-negative results should be kept in mind

Complex finite element sensitivity method for creep analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gomez-Farias, Armando; Montoya, Arturo; Millwater, Harry

2015-01-01

The complex finite element method (ZFEM) has been extended to perform sensitivity analysis for mechanical and structural systems undergoing creep deformation. ZFEM uses a complex finite element formulation to provide shape, material, and loading derivatives of the system response, providing an insight into the essential factors which control the behavior of the system as a function of time. A complex variable-based quadrilateral user element (UEL) subroutine implementing the power law creep constitutive formulation was incorporated within the Abaqus commercial finite element software. The results of the complex finite element computations were verified by comparing them to the reference solution for the steady-state creep problem of a thick-walled cylinder in the power law creep range. A practical application of the ZFEM implementation to creep deformation analysis is the calculation of the skeletal point of a notched bar test from a single ZFEM run. In contrast, the standard finite element procedure requires multiple runs. The value of the skeletal point is that it identifies the location where the stress state is accurate, regardless of the certainty of the creep material properties. - Highlights: • A novel finite element sensitivity method (ZFEM) for creep was introduced. • ZFEM has the capability to calculate accurate partial derivatives. • ZFEM can be used for identification of the skeletal point of creep structures. • ZFEM can be easily implemented in a commercial software, e.g. Abaqus. • ZFEM results were shown to be in excellent agreement with analytical solutions

Sensitivity analysis for the effects of multiple unmeasured confounders.

Science.gov (United States)

Groenwold, Rolf H H; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Lawlor, Debbie A; Moons, Karel G M; Hoes, Arno W; Tilling, Kate

2016-09-01

Observational studies are prone to (unmeasured) confounding. Sensitivity analysis of unmeasured confounding typically focuses on a single unmeasured confounder. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of multiple (possibly weak) unmeasured confounders. Simulation studies were performed based on parameters estimated from the British Women's Heart and Health Study, including 28 measured confounders and assuming no effect of ascorbic acid intake on mortality. In addition, 25, 50, or 100 unmeasured confounders were simulated, with various mutual correlations and correlations with measured confounders. The correlated unmeasured confounders did not need to be strongly associated with exposure and outcome to substantially bias the exposure-outcome association at interest, provided that there are sufficiently many unmeasured confounders. Correlations between unmeasured confounders, in addition to the strength of their relationship with exposure and outcome, are key drivers of the magnitude of unmeasured confounding and should be considered in sensitivity analyses. However, if the unmeasured confounders are correlated with measured confounders, the bias yielded by unmeasured confounders is partly removed through adjustment for the measured confounders. Discussions of the potential impact of unmeasured confounding in observational studies, and sensitivity analyses to examine this, should focus on the potential for the joint effect of multiple unmeasured confounders to bias results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rainfall-induced fecal indicator organisms transport from manured fields: model sensitivity analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez, Gonzalo; Pachepsky, Yakov A; Whelan, Gene; Yakirevich, Alexander M; Guber, Andrey; Gish, Timothy J

2014-02-01

Microbial quality of surface waters attracts attention due to food- and waterborne disease outbreaks. Fecal indicator organisms (FIOs) are commonly used for the microbial pollution level evaluation. Models predicting the fate and transport of FIOs are required to design and evaluate best management practices that reduce the microbial pollution in ecosystems and water sources and thus help to predict the risk of food and waterborne diseases. In this study we performed a sensitivity analysis for the KINEROS/STWIR model developed to predict the FIOs transport out of manured fields to other fields and water bodies in order to identify input variables that control the transport uncertainty. The distributions of model input parameters were set to encompass values found from three-year experiments at the USDA-ARS OPE3 experimental site in Beltsville and publicly available information. Sobol' indices and complementary regression trees were used to perform the global sensitivity analysis of the model and to explore the interactions between model input parameters on the proportion of FIO removed from fields. Regression trees provided a useful visualization of the differences in sensitivity of the model output in different parts of the input variable domain. Environmental controls such as soil saturation, rainfall duration and rainfall intensity had the largest influence in the model behavior, whereas soil and manure properties ranked lower. The field length had only moderate effect on the model output sensitivity to the model inputs. Among the manure-related properties the parameter determining the shape of the FIO release kinetic curve had the largest influence on the removal of FIOs from the fields. That underscored the need to better characterize the FIO release kinetics. Since the most sensitive model inputs are available in soil and weather databases or can be obtained using soil water models, results indicate the opportunity of obtaining large-scale estimates of FIO

Sensitivity analysis and power for instrumental variable studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xuran; Jiang, Yang; Zhang, Nancy R; Small, Dylan S

2018-03-31

In observational studies to estimate treatment effects, unmeasured confounding is often a concern. The instrumental variable (IV) method can control for unmeasured confounding when there is a valid IV. To be a valid IV, a variable needs to be independent of unmeasured confounders and only affect the outcome through affecting the treatment. When applying the IV method, there is often concern that a putative IV is invalid to some degree. We present an approach to sensitivity analysis for the IV method which examines the sensitivity of inferences to violations of IV validity. Specifically, we consider sensitivity when the magnitude of association between the putative IV and the unmeasured confounders and the direct effect of the IV on the outcome are limited in magnitude by a sensitivity parameter. Our approach is based on extending the Anderson-Rubin test and is valid regardless of the strength of the instrument. A power formula for this sensitivity analysis is presented. We illustrate its usage via examples about Mendelian randomization studies and its implications via a comparison of using rare versus common genetic variants as instruments. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

Sensitivity analysis of Repast computational ecology models with R/Repast.

Science.gov (United States)

Prestes García, Antonio; Rodríguez-Patón, Alfonso

2016-12-01

Computational ecology is an emerging interdisciplinary discipline founded mainly on modeling and simulation methods for studying ecological systems. Among the existing modeling formalisms, the individual-based modeling is particularly well suited for capturing the complex temporal and spatial dynamics as well as the nonlinearities arising in ecosystems, communities, or populations due to individual variability. In addition, being a bottom-up approach, it is useful for providing new insights on the local mechanisms which are generating some observed global dynamics. Of course, no conclusions about model results could be taken seriously if they are based on a single model execution and they are not analyzed carefully. Therefore, a sound methodology should always be used for underpinning the interpretation of model results. The sensitivity analysis is a methodology for quantitatively assessing the effect of input uncertainty in the simulation output which should be incorporated compulsorily to every work based on in-silico experimental setup. In this article, we present R/Repast a GNU R package for running and analyzing Repast Simphony models accompanied by two worked examples on how to perform global sensitivity analysis and how to interpret the results.

Sensitivity analysis for CORSOR models simulating fission product release in LOFT-LP-FP-2 severe accident experiment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Islamic Azad Univ., Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Dept. of Basic Sciences; Islamic Azad Univ., Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Young Researchers and Elite Club; Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad [Sahand Univ. of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; Yousefpour, Faramarz [Nuclear Science and Technology Research Institute, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2017-03-15

This paper deals with simulation, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of LP-FP-2 experiment of LOFT test facility. The test facility simulates the major components and system response of a pressurized water reactor during a LOCA. MELCOR code is used for predicting the fission product release from the core fuel elements in LOFT LP-FP-2 experiment. Moreover, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is performed for different CORSOR models simulating release of fission products in severe accident calculations for nuclear power plants. The calculated values for the fission product release are compared under different modeling options to the experimental data available from the experiment. In conclusion, the performance of 8 CORSOR modeling options is assessed for available modeling alternatives in the code structure.

CEO pay-performance sensitivity in the South African context

OpenAIRE

Mark Bussin

2015-01-01

The topic of executive pay-performance sensitivity has resulted in mixed research findings. Literature related to executive remuneration constructs, company performance measures and the underlying theories is critically reviewed in this article. The literature is compared to research findings within the South African context pre, during and post the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. The researcher found similar results in the South African context compared to research in other countries and in...

PROMETHEE Method and Sensitivity Analysis in the Software Application for the Support of Decision-Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petr Moldrik

2008-01-01

Full Text Available PROMETHEE is one of methods, which fall into multi-criteria analysis (MCA. The MCA, as the name itself indicates, deals with the evaluation of particular variants according to several criteria. Developed software application (MCA8 for the support of multi-criteria decision-making was upgraded about PROMETHEE method and a graphic tool, which enables the execution of the sensitivity analysis. This analysis is used to ascertain how a given model output depends upon the input parameters. The MCA8 software application with mentioned graphic upgrade was developed for purposes of solving multi-criteria decision tasks. In the MCA8 is possible to perform sensitivity analysis by a simple form – through column graphs. We can change criteria significances (weights in these column graphs directly and watch the changes of the order of variants immediately.

Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

2017-02-01

Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

Sensitivity analysis for contagion effects in social networks

Science.gov (United States)

VanderWeele, Tyler J.

2014-01-01

Analyses of social network data have suggested that obesity, smoking, happiness and loneliness all travel through social networks. Individuals exert “contagion effects” on one another through social ties and association. These analyses have come under critique because of the possibility that homophily from unmeasured factors may explain these statistical associations and because similar findings can be obtained when the same methodology is applied to height, acne and head-aches, for which the conclusion of contagion effects seems somewhat less plausible. We use sensitivity analysis techniques to assess the extent to which supposed contagion effects for obesity, smoking, happiness and loneliness might be explained away by homophily or confounding and the extent to which the critique using analysis of data on height, acne and head-aches is relevant. Sensitivity analyses suggest that contagion effects for obesity and smoking cessation are reasonably robust to possible latent homophily or environmental confounding; those for happiness and loneliness are somewhat less so. Supposed effects for height, acne and head-aches are all easily explained away by latent homophily and confounding. The methodology that has been employed in past studies for contagion effects in social networks, when used in conjunction with sensitivity analysis, may prove useful in establishing social influence for various behaviors and states. The sensitivity analysis approach can be used to address the critique of latent homophily as a possible explanation of associations interpreted as contagion effects. PMID:25580037

Validation of Fuel Performance Uncertainty for RIA Safety Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Nam-Gyu; Yoo, Jong-Sung; Jung, Yil-Sup [KEPCO Nuclear Fuel Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

To achieve this the computer code performance has to be validated based on the experimental results. And for the uncertainty quantification, important uncertainty parameters need to be selected, and combined uncertainty has to be evaluated with an acceptable statistical treatment. And important uncertainty parameters to the rod performance such as fuel enthalpy, fission gas release, cladding hoop strain etc. were chosen through the rigorous sensitivity studies. And their validity has been assessed by utilizing the experimental results, which were tested in CABRI and NSRR. Analysis results revealed that several tested rods were not bounded within combined fuel performance uncertainty. Assessment of fuel performance with an extended fuel power uncertainty on tested rods in NSRR and CABRI has been done. Analysis results showed that several tested rods were not bounded within calculated fuel performance uncertainty. This implies that the currently considered uncertainty range of the parameters is not enough to cover the fuel performance sufficiently.

Variance-based sensitivity indices for models with dependent inputs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mara, Thierry A.; Tarantola, Stefano

2012-01-01

Computational models are intensively used in engineering for risk analysis or prediction of future outcomes. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are of great help in these purposes. Although several methods exist to perform variance-based sensitivity analysis of model output with independent inputs only a few are proposed in the literature in the case of dependent inputs. This is explained by the fact that the theoretical framework for the independent case is set and a univocal set of variance-based sensitivity indices is defined. In the present work, we propose a set of variance-based sensitivity indices to perform sensitivity analysis of models with dependent inputs. These measures allow us to distinguish between the mutual dependent contribution and the independent contribution of an input to the model response variance. Their definition relies on a specific orthogonalisation of the inputs and ANOVA-representations of the model output. In the applications, we show the interest of the new sensitivity indices for model simplification setting. - Highlights: ► Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are of great help in engineering. ► Several methods exist to perform variance-based sensitivity analysis of model output with independent inputs. ► We define a set of variance-based sensitivity indices for models with dependent inputs. ► Inputs mutual contributions are distinguished from their independent contributions. ► Analytical and computational tests are performed and discussed.

Sensitivity Analysis for Hydraulic Behavior of Shiraz Plain Aquifer Using PMWIN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmad Reza karimipour

2011-07-01

Full Text Available In this study, hydraulic behavior of Shirazplain aquifer, with an area of ~300 km2, was simulated using PMWIN model. The performance of recently constructed drainage system in the plain was modeled and parameters affecting hydraulic behavior of the aquifer were analyzed. Measured rainfall and evaporation rates in the plain, recharge and discharge rates through the aqueducts, Khoshk and Chenar Rahdar rivers, as well as amount of water discharged from production wells and recharge due to returned wastewater were considered in the model. Plain hydrodynamic coefficients were estimated via calibration and sensitivity analysis of the model was performed for four important parameters. Results showed that the model is most sensitive to recharge rate and hydraulic conductivity, respectively, such that a small variation in these two parameters causes a dramatic change in hydraulic head distribution in the plain. Furthermore, specific yield coefficient influences the seasonal water level fluctuations, but the aqueducts conductance coefficient only affects the aqueduct radius of influence with little effect on the overall hydraulic behavior of the plain.

Application of Monte Carlo Methods to Perform Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis on Inverse Water-Rock Reactions with NETPATH

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McGraw, David [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Reno, NV (United States); Hershey, Ronald L. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Reno, NV (United States)

2016-06-01

Methods were developed to quantify uncertainty and sensitivity for NETPATH inverse water-rock reaction models and to calculate dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon-14 groundwater travel times. The NETPATH models calculate upgradient groundwater mixing fractions that produce the downgradient target water chemistry along with amounts of mineral phases that are either precipitated or dissolved. Carbon-14 groundwater travel times are calculated based on the upgradient source-water fractions, carbonate mineral phase changes, and isotopic fractionation. Custom scripts and statistical code were developed for this study to facilitate modifying input parameters, running the NETPATH simulations, extracting relevant output, postprocessing the results, and producing graphs and summaries. The scripts read userspecified values for each constituent’s coefficient of variation, distribution, sensitivity parameter, maximum dissolution or precipitation amounts, and number of Monte Carlo simulations. Monte Carlo methods for analysis of parametric uncertainty assign a distribution to each uncertain variable, sample from those distributions, and evaluate the ensemble output. The uncertainty in input affected the variability of outputs, namely source-water mixing, phase dissolution and precipitation amounts, and carbon-14 travel time. Although NETPATH may provide models that satisfy the constraints, it is up to the geochemist to determine whether the results are geochemically reasonable. Two example water-rock reaction models from previous geochemical reports were considered in this study. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to evaluate the change in output caused by a small change in input, one constituent at a time. Results were standardized to allow for sensitivity comparisons across all inputs, which results in a representative value for each scenario. The approach yielded insight into the uncertainty in water-rock reactions and travel times. For example, there was little

A comparison of computer-assisted detection (CAD) programs for the identification of colorectal polyps: performance and sensitivity analysis, current limitations and practical tips for radiologists.

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, L T O; Gandhi, S

2018-06-01

To directly compare the accuracy and speed of analysis of two commercially available computer-assisted detection (CAD) programs in detecting colorectal polyps. In this retrospective single-centre study, patients who had colorectal polyps identified on computed tomography colonography (CTC) and subsequent lower gastrointestinal endoscopy, were analysed using two commercially available CAD programs (CAD1 and CAD2). Results were compared against endoscopy to ascertain sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) for colorectal polyps. Time taken for CAD analysis was also calculated. CAD1 demonstrated a sensitivity of 89.8%, PPV of 17.6% and mean analysis time of 125.8 seconds. CAD2 demonstrated a sensitivity of 75.5%, PPV of 44.0% and mean analysis time of 84.6 seconds. The sensitivity and PPV for colorectal polyps and CAD analysis times can vary widely between current commercially available CAD programs. There is still room for improvement. Generally, there is a trade-off between sensitivity and PPV, and so further developments should aim to optimise both. Information on these factors should be made routinely available, so that an informed choice on their use can be made. This information could also potentially influence the radiologist's use of CAD results. Copyright © 2018 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - II: Application to IFMIF reliability assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cacuci, D. G. [Commiss Energy Atom, Direct Energy Nucl, Saclay, (France); Cacuci, D. G.; Balan, I. [Univ Karlsruhe, Inst Nucl Technol and Reactor Safetly, Karlsruhe, (Germany); Ionescu-Bujor, M. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Fus Program, D-76021 Karlsruhe, (Germany)

2008-07-01

In Part II of this work, the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure developed in Part I is applied to perform sensitivity analysis of several dynamic reliability models of systems of increasing complexity, culminating with the consideration of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) accelerator system. Section II presents the main steps of a procedure for the automated generation of Markov chains for reliability analysis, including the abstraction of the physical system, construction of the Markov chain, and the generation and solution of the ensuing set of differential equations; all of these steps have been implemented in a stand-alone computer code system called QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN. This code system has been applied to sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability measures for a paradigm '2-out-of-3' system comprising five components and also to a comprehensive dynamic reliability analysis of the IFMIF accelerator system facilities for the average availability and, respectively, the system's availability at the final mission time. The QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN has been used to efficiently compute sensitivities to 186 failure and repair rates characterizing components and subsystems of the first-level fault tree of the IFMIF accelerator system. (authors)

Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - II: Application to IFMIF reliability assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cacuci, D. G.; Cacuci, D. G.; Balan, I.; Ionescu-Bujor, M.

2008-01-01

In Part II of this work, the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure developed in Part I is applied to perform sensitivity analysis of several dynamic reliability models of systems of increasing complexity, culminating with the consideration of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) accelerator system. Section II presents the main steps of a procedure for the automated generation of Markov chains for reliability analysis, including the abstraction of the physical system, construction of the Markov chain, and the generation and solution of the ensuing set of differential equations; all of these steps have been implemented in a stand-alone computer code system called QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN. This code system has been applied to sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability measures for a paradigm '2-out-of-3' system comprising five components and also to a comprehensive dynamic reliability analysis of the IFMIF accelerator system facilities for the average availability and, respectively, the system's availability at the final mission time. The QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN has been used to efficiently compute sensitivities to 186 failure and repair rates characterizing components and subsystems of the first-level fault tree of the IFMIF accelerator system. (authors)

A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

KAUST Repository

Boas, Sonja E. M.

2015-11-21

Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.

Science.gov (United States)

Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G

2015-11-21

Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

Application of adjoint sensitivity theory to performance assessment of hydrogeologic concerns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Metcalfe, D.E.; Harper, W.V.

1986-01-01

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are important components of performance assessment activities for potential high-level radioactive waste repositories. The application of the adjoint sensitivity technique is demonstrated for the Leadville Limestone in the Paradox Basin, Utah. The adjoint technique is used sequentially to first assist in the calibration of the regional conceptual ground-water flow model to measured potentiometric data. Second, it is used to evaluate the sensitivities of the calculated pressures used to define local scale boundary conditions to regional parameters and boundary conditions

Probabilistic and sensitivity analysis of Botlek Bridge structures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Králik Juraj

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with the probabilistic and sensitivity analysis of the largest movable lift bridge of the world. The bridge system consists of six reinforced concrete pylons and two steel decks 4000 tons weight each connected through ropes with counterweights. The paper focuses the probabilistic and sensitivity analysis as the base of dynamic study in design process of the bridge. The results had a high importance for practical application and design of the bridge. The model and resistance uncertainties were taken into account in LHS simulation method.

Modeling and sensitivity analysis of mass transfer in active multilayer polymeric film for food applications

Science.gov (United States)

Bedane, T.; Di Maio, L.; Scarfato, P.; Incarnato, L.; Marra, F.

2015-12-01

The barrier performance of multilayer polymeric films for food applications has been significantly improved by incorporating oxygen scavenging materials. The scavenging activity depends on parameters such as diffusion coefficient, solubility, concentration of scavenger loaded and the number of available reactive sites. These parameters influence the barrier performance of the film in different ways. Virtualization of the process is useful to characterize, design and optimize the barrier performance based on physical configuration of the films. Also, the knowledge of values of parameters is important to predict the performances. Inverse modeling and sensitivity analysis are sole way to find reasonable values of poorly defined, unmeasured parameters and to analyze the most influencing parameters. Thus, the objective of this work was to develop a model to predict barrier properties of multilayer film incorporated with reactive layers and to analyze and characterize their performances. Polymeric film based on three layers of Polyethylene terephthalate (PET), with a core reactive layer, at different thickness configurations was considered in the model. A one dimensional diffusion equation with reaction was solved numerically to predict the concentration of oxygen diffused into the polymer taking into account the reactive ability of the core layer. The model was solved using commercial software for different film layer configurations and sensitivity analysis based on inverse modeling was carried out to understand the effect of physical parameters. The results have shown that the use of sensitivity analysis can provide physical understanding of the parameters which highly affect the gas permeation into the film. Solubility and the number of available reactive sites were the factors mainly influencing the barrier performance of three layered polymeric film. Multilayer films slightly modified the steady transport properties in comparison to net PET, giving a small reduction

Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of an Urban Surface Energy Balance Parameterization at a Tropical Suburban Site

Science.gov (United States)

Harshan, S.; Roth, M.; Velasco, E.

2014-12-01

Forecasting of the urban weather and climate is of great importance as our cities become more populated and considering the combined effects of global warming and local land use changes which make urban inhabitants more vulnerable to e.g. heat waves and flash floods. In meso/global scale models, urban parameterization schemes are used to represent the urban effects. However, these schemes require a large set of input parameters related to urban morphological and thermal properties. Obtaining all these parameters through direct measurements are usually not feasible. A number of studies have reported on parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis to adjust and determine the most influential parameters for land surface schemes in non-urban areas. Similar work for urban areas is scarce, in particular studies on urban parameterization schemes in tropical cities have so far not been reported. In order to address above issues, the town energy balance (TEB) urban parameterization scheme (part of the SURFEX land surface modeling system) was subjected to a sensitivity and optimization/parameter estimation experiment at a suburban site in, tropical Singapore. The sensitivity analysis was carried out as a screening test to identify the most sensitive or influential parameters. Thereafter, an optimization/parameter estimation experiment was performed to calibrate the input parameter. The sensitivity experiment was based on the "improved Sobol's global variance decomposition method" . The analysis showed that parameters related to road, roof and soil moisture have significant influence on the performance of the model. The optimization/parameter estimation experiment was performed using the AMALGM (a multi-algorithm genetically adaptive multi-objective method) evolutionary algorithm. The experiment showed a remarkable improvement compared to the simulations using the default parameter set. The calibrated parameters from this optimization experiment can be used for further model

Causal Analysis for Performance Modeling of Computer Programs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Lemeire

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Causal modeling and the accompanying learning algorithms provide useful extensions for in-depth statistical investigation and automation of performance modeling. We enlarged the scope of existing causal structure learning algorithms by using the form-free information-theoretic concept of mutual information and by introducing the complexity criterion for selecting direct relations among equivalent relations. The underlying probability distribution of experimental data is estimated by kernel density estimation. We then reported on the benefits of a dependency analysis and the decompositional capacities of causal models. Useful qualitative models, providing insight into the role of every performance factor, were inferred from experimental data. This paper reports on the results for a LU decomposition algorithm and on the study of the parameter sensitivity of the Kakadu implementation of the JPEG-2000 standard. Next, the analysis was used to search for generic performance characteristics of the applications.

Experimental Design for Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.

2001-01-01

This introductory tutorial gives a survey on the use of statistical designs for what if-or sensitivity analysis in simulation.This analysis uses regression analysis to approximate the input/output transformation that is implied by the simulation model; the resulting regression model is also known as

Cross-section sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the FNG copper benchmark experiment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kodeli, I., E-mail: ivan.kodeli@ijs.si [Jožef Stefan Institute, Jamova 39, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Kondo, K. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Postfach 3640, D-76021 Karlsruhe (Germany); Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Rokkasho-mura (Japan); Perel, R.L. [Racah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, IL-91904 Jerusalem (Israel); Fischer, U. [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Postfach 3640, D-76021 Karlsruhe (Germany)

2016-11-01

A neutronics benchmark experiment on copper assembly was performed end 2014–beginning 2015 at the 14-MeV Frascati neutron generator (FNG) of ENEA Frascati with the objective to provide the experimental database required for the validation of the copper nuclear data relevant for ITER design calculations, including the related uncertainties. The paper presents the pre- and post-analysis of the experiment performed using cross-section sensitivity and uncertainty codes, both deterministic (SUSD3D) and Monte Carlo (MCSEN5). Cumulative reaction rates and neutron flux spectra, their sensitivity to the cross sections, as well as the corresponding uncertainties were estimated for different selected detector positions up to ∼58 cm in the copper assembly. This permitted in the pre-analysis phase to optimize the geometry, the detector positions and the choice of activation reactions, and in the post-analysis phase to interpret the results of the measurements and the calculations, to conclude on the quality of the relevant nuclear cross-section data, and to estimate the uncertainties in the calculated nuclear responses and fluxes. Large uncertainties in the calculated reaction rates and neutron spectra of up to 50%, rarely observed at this level in the benchmark analysis using today's nuclear data, were predicted, particularly high for fast reactions. Observed C/E (dis)agreements with values as low as 0.5 partly confirm these predictions. Benchmark results are therefore expected to contribute to the improvement of both cross section as well as covariance data evaluations.

Understanding dynamics using sensitivity analysis: caveat and solution

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Parametric sensitivity analysis (PSA) has become one of the most commonly used tools in computational systems biology, in which the sensitivity coefficients are used to study the parametric dependence of biological models. As many of these models describe dynamical behaviour of biological systems, the PSA has subsequently been used to elucidate important cellular processes that regulate this dynamics. However, in this paper, we show that the PSA coefficients are not suitable in inferring the mechanisms by which dynamical behaviour arises and in fact it can even lead to incorrect conclusions. Results A careful interpretation of parametric perturbations used in the PSA is presented here to explain the issue of using this analysis in inferring dynamics. In short, the PSA coefficients quantify the integrated change in the system behaviour due to persistent parametric perturbations, and thus the dynamical information of when a parameter perturbation matters is lost. To get around this issue, we present a new sensitivity analysis based on impulse perturbations on system parameters, which is named impulse parametric sensitivity analysis (iPSA). The inability of PSA and the efficacy of iPSA in revealing mechanistic information of a dynamical system are illustrated using two examples involving switch activation. Conclusions The interpretation of the PSA coefficients of dynamical systems should take into account the persistent nature of parametric perturbations involved in the derivation of this analysis. The application of PSA to identify the controlling mechanism of dynamical behaviour can be misleading. By using impulse perturbations, introduced at different times, the iPSA provides the necessary information to understand how dynamics is achieved, i.e. which parameters are essential and when they become important. PMID:21406095

Two-dimensional cross-section sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the LBM [Lithium Blanket Module] experiments at LOTUS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davidson, J.W.; Dudziak, D.J.; Pelloni, S.; Stepanek, J.

1988-01-01

In a recent common Los Alamos/PSI effort, a sensitivity and nuclear data uncertainty path for the modular code system AARE (Advanced Analysis for Reactor Engineering) was developed. This path includes the cross-section code TRAMIX, the one-dimensional finite difference S/sub N/-transport code ONEDANT, the two-dimensional finite element S/sub N/-transport code TRISM, and the one- and two-dimensional sensitivity and nuclear data uncertainty code SENSIBL. Within the framework of the present work a complete set of forward and adjoint two-dimensional TRISM calculations were performed both for the bare, as well as for the Pb- and Be-preceeded, LBM using MATXS8 libraries. Then a two-dimensional sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for all cases was performed. The goal of this analysis was the determination of the uncertainties of a calculated tritium production per source neutron from lithium along the central Li 2 O rod in the LBM. Considered were the contributions from 1 H, 6 Li, 7 Li, 9 Be, /sup nat/C, 14 N, 16 O, 23 Na, 27 Al, /sup nat/Si, /sup nat/Cr, /sup nat/Fe, /sup nat/Ni, and /sup nat/Pb. 22 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

Improving the Design of Capacitive Micromachined Ultrasonic Transducers Aided with Sensitivity Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A Martowicz

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the results of analysis performed to search for feasible design improvements for capacitive micromachined ultrasonic transducer. Carried out search has been aided with the sensitivity analysis and the application of Response Surface Method. The multiphysics approach has been taken into account in elaborated finite element model of one cell of described transducer in order to include significant physical phenomena present in modelled microdevice. The set of twelve input uncertain and design parameters consists of geometric, material and control properties. The amplitude of dynamic membrane deformation of the transducer has been chosen as studied parameter. The objective of performed study has been defined as the task of finding robust design configurations of the transducer, i.e. characterizing maximal value of deformation amplitude with its minimal variation.

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis for Streamflow Prediction Using Different Objective Functions and Optimization Algorithms: San Joaquin California

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, M.; Negahban-Azar, M.

2017-12-01

The hydrologic models usually need to be calibrated against observed streamflow at the outlet of a particular drainage area through a careful model calibration. However, a large number of parameters are required to fit in the model due to their unavailability of the field measurement. Therefore, it is difficult to calibrate the model for a large number of potential uncertain model parameters. This even becomes more challenging if the model is for a large watershed with multiple land uses and various geophysical characteristics. Sensitivity analysis (SA) can be used as a tool to identify most sensitive model parameters which affect the calibrated model performance. There are many different calibration and uncertainty analysis algorithms which can be performed with different objective functions. By incorporating sensitive parameters in streamflow simulation, effects of the suitable algorithm in improving model performance can be demonstrated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling. In this study, the SWAT was applied in the San Joaquin Watershed in California covering 19704 km2 to calibrate the daily streamflow. Recently, sever water stress escalating due to intensified climate variability, prolonged drought and depleting groundwater for agricultural irrigation in this watershed. Therefore it is important to perform a proper uncertainty analysis given the uncertainties inherent in hydrologic modeling to predict the spatial and temporal variation of the hydrologic process to evaluate the impacts of different hydrologic variables. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity and uncertainty of the calibrated parameters for predicting streamflow. To evaluate the sensitivity of the calibrated parameters three different optimization algorithms (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting- SUFI-2, Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation- GLUE and Parameter Solution- ParaSol) were used with four different objective functions (coefficient of determination

Quantitative global sensitivity analysis of a biologically based dose-response pregnancy model for the thyroid endocrine system.

Science.gov (United States)

Lumen, Annie; McNally, Kevin; George, Nysia; Fisher, Jeffrey W; Loizou, George D

2015-01-01

A deterministic biologically based dose-response model for the thyroidal system in a near-term pregnant woman and the fetus was recently developed to evaluate quantitatively thyroid hormone perturbations. The current work focuses on conducting a quantitative global sensitivity analysis on this complex model to identify and characterize the sources and contributions of uncertainties in the predicted model output. The workflow and methodologies suitable for computationally expensive models, such as the Morris screening method and Gaussian Emulation processes, were used for the implementation of the global sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity indices, such as main, total and interaction effects, were computed for a screened set of the total thyroidal system descriptive model input parameters. Furthermore, a narrower sub-set of the most influential parameters affecting the model output of maternal thyroid hormone levels were identified in addition to the characterization of their overall and pair-wise parameter interaction quotients. The characteristic trends of influence in model output for each of these individual model input parameters over their plausible ranges were elucidated using Gaussian Emulation processes. Through global sensitivity analysis we have gained a better understanding of the model behavior and performance beyond the domains of observation by the simultaneous variation in model inputs over their range of plausible uncertainties. The sensitivity analysis helped identify parameters that determine the driving mechanisms of the maternal and fetal iodide kinetics, thyroid function and their interactions, and contributed to an improved understanding of the system modeled. We have thus demonstrated the use and application of global sensitivity analysis for a biologically based dose-response model for sensitive life-stages such as pregnancy that provides richer information on the model and the thyroidal system modeled compared to local sensitivity analysis.

Quantitative global sensitivity analysis of a biologically based dose-response pregnancy model for the thyroid endocrine system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annie eLumen

2015-05-01

Full Text Available A deterministic biologically based dose-response model for the thyroidal system in a near-term pregnant woman and the fetus was recently developed to evaluate quantitatively thyroid hormone perturbations. The current work focuses on conducting a quantitative global sensitivity analysis on this complex model to identify and characterize the sources and contributions of uncertainties in the predicted model output. The workflow and methodologies suitable for computationally expensive models, such as the Morris screening method and Gaussian Emulation processes, were used for the implementation of the global sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity indices, such as main, total and interaction effects, were computed for a screened set of the total thyroidal system descriptive model input parameters. Furthermore, a narrower sub-set of the most influential parameters affecting the model output of maternal thyroid hormone levels were identified in addition to the characterization of their overall and pair-wise parameter interaction quotients. The characteristic trends of influence in model output for each of these individual model input parameters over their plausible ranges were elucidated using Gaussian Emulation processes. Through global sensitivity analysis we have gained a better understanding of the model behavior and performance beyond the domains of observation by the simultaneous variation in model inputs over their range of plausible uncertainties. The sensitivity analysis helped identify parameters that determine the driving mechanisms of the maternal and fetal iodide kinetics, thyroid function and their interactions, and contributed to an improved understanding of the system modeled. We have thus demonstrated the use and application of global sensitivity analysis for a biologically based dose-response model for sensitive life-stages such as pregnancy that provides richer information on the model and the thyroidal system modeled compared to local

Enhancement of electrical and optical performance of N719 by co-sensitization

Science.gov (United States)

Shikoh, Ali Sephar; Ahmad, Zubair; Touati, Farid; Al-Muhtaseb, Shaheen A.

2018-04-01

This paper deals with the electrical, optical and electrochemical properties of a metal-free dye C78H74O8 (AS-2), which has been used to improve the photo-detection properties of C58H86N8O8RuS2 (N719) based Dye sensitized photo-sensors (DSPSs). Both dyes were mixed together in various proportions and the most promising ratio N719/AS-2 (1:0.25) was selected for staining photo-anodes for DSPS integration. The fabricated DSPSs were studied in terms of electrical parameters and photodetection properties. The N719/AS-2 (1:0.25) based DSPS were found to have a reduced leakage current, increased breakdown voltage and a closer proximity to an ideal diode, as compared to the N719 based DSPS. Further, the N719/AS-2 (1:0.25) based DSPS was also found to have better linearity at high irradiance levels, thus rendering the co-sensitized device useful as a photosensor in various applications. Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) analysis was also performed to explain the interfacial charge recombination process.

Sensitivity analysis for improving nanomechanical photonic transducers biosensors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fariña, D; Álvarez, M; Márquez, S; Lechuga, L M; Dominguez, C

2015-01-01

The achievement of high sensitivity and highly integrated transducers is one of the main challenges in the development of high-throughput biosensors. The aim of this study is to improve the final sensitivity of an opto-mechanical device to be used as a reliable biosensor. We report the analysis of the mechanical and optical properties of optical waveguide microcantilever transducers, and their dependency on device design and dimensions. The selected layout (geometry) based on two butt-coupled misaligned waveguides displays better sensitivities than an aligned one. With this configuration, we find that an optimal microcantilever thickness range between 150 nm and 400 nm would increase both microcantilever bending during the biorecognition process and increase optical sensitivity to 4.8   ×   10 −2  nm −1 , an order of magnitude higher than other similar opto-mechanical devices. Moreover, the analysis shows that a single mode behaviour of the propagating radiation is required to avoid modal interference that could misinterpret the readout signal. (paper)

Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

2010-01-01

As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

Sensitivity analysis of U238 cross sections in fast nuclear systems-SENSEAV-R computer code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amorim, E.S. de; D'Oliveira, A.B.; Oliveira, E.C. de

1981-01-01

For many performance parameters of reactors the tabulated ratio calculation/experiment indicate that some potential problems may exist either in the cross section data or in the calculation models used to investigate the critical experimental data. A first step toward drawing a more definite conclusion is to perform a selective analysis of sensitivity profiles and covariance data files for the cross section data used in the calculation. Many works in the current literature show that some of these uncertainties come from uncertainties in 238 U(n,γ), 238 U(n,f) 239 Pu(n,f). Perturbation methods were developed to analyze the effects of finite changes in a large number of cross sections and summarize the investigation by a group dependent sensitivity coefficient. As an application, the results of this investigation indicates that improvements should be done only on the medium and low energy ranges of 238 U(n,γ) based on an analysis of cost and economic benefits. (Author) [pt

Diagnostic performance of semi-quantitative and quantitative stress CMR perfusion analysis: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

van Dijk, R; van Assen, M; Vliegenthart, R; de Bock, G H; van der Harst, P; Oudkerk, M

2017-11-27

Stress cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) perfusion imaging is a promising modality for the evaluation of coronary artery disease (CAD) due to high spatial resolution and absence of radiation. Semi-quantitative and quantitative analysis of CMR perfusion are based on signal-intensity curves produced during the first-pass of gadolinium contrast. Multiple semi-quantitative and quantitative parameters have been introduced. Diagnostic performance of these parameters varies extensively among studies and standardized protocols are lacking. This study aims to determine the diagnostic accuracy of semi- quantitative and quantitative CMR perfusion parameters, compared to multiple reference standards. Pubmed, WebOfScience, and Embase were systematically searched using predefined criteria (3272 articles). A check for duplicates was performed (1967 articles). Eligibility and relevance of the articles was determined by two reviewers using pre-defined criteria. The primary data extraction was performed independently by two researchers with the use of a predefined template. Differences in extracted data were resolved by discussion between the two researchers. The quality of the included studies was assessed using the 'Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies Tool' (QUADAS-2). True positives, false positives, true negatives, and false negatives were subtracted/calculated from the articles. The principal summary measures used to assess diagnostic accuracy were sensitivity, specificity, andarea under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Data was pooled according to analysis territory, reference standard and perfusion parameter. Twenty-two articles were eligible based on the predefined study eligibility criteria. The pooled diagnostic accuracy for segment-, territory- and patient-based analyses showed good diagnostic performance with sensitivity of 0.88, 0.82, and 0.83, specificity of 0.72, 0.83, and 0.76 and AUC of 0.90, 0.84, and 0.87, respectively. In per territory

Comparing sensitivity analysis methods to advance lumped watershed model identification and evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Tang

2007-01-01

Full Text Available This study seeks to identify sensitivity tools that will advance our understanding of lumped hydrologic models for the purposes of model improvement, calibration efficiency and improved measurement schemes. Four sensitivity analysis methods were tested: (1 local analysis using parameter estimation software (PEST, (2 regional sensitivity analysis (RSA, (3 analysis of variance (ANOVA, and (4 Sobol's method. The methods' relative efficiencies and effectiveness have been analyzed and compared. These four sensitivity methods were applied to the lumped Sacramento soil moisture accounting model (SAC-SMA coupled with SNOW-17. Results from this study characterize model sensitivities for two medium sized watersheds within the Juniata River Basin in Pennsylvania, USA. Comparative results for the 4 sensitivity methods are presented for a 3-year time series with 1 h, 6 h, and 24 h time intervals. The results of this study show that model parameter sensitivities are heavily impacted by the choice of analysis method as well as the model time interval. Differences between the two adjacent watersheds also suggest strong influences of local physical characteristics on the sensitivity methods' results. This study also contributes a comprehensive assessment of the repeatability, robustness, efficiency, and ease-of-implementation of the four sensitivity methods. Overall ANOVA and Sobol's method were shown to be superior to RSA and PEST. Relative to one another, ANOVA has reduced computational requirements and Sobol's method yielded more robust sensitivity rankings.

Temperature sensitivity analysis of polarity controlled electrostatically doped tunnel field-effect transistor

Science.gov (United States)

Nigam, Kaushal; Pandey, Sunil; Kondekar, P. N.; Sharma, Dheeraj

2016-09-01

The conventional tunnel field-effect transistors (TFETs) have shown potential to scale down in sub-22 nm regime due to its lower sub-threshold slope and robustness against short-channel effects (SCEs), however, sensitivity towards temperature variation is a major concern. Therefore, for the first time, we investigate temperature sensitivity analysis of a polarity controlled electrostatically doped tunnel field-effect transistor (ED-TFET). Different performance metrics and analog/RF figure-of-merits were considered and compared for both devices, and simulations were performed using Silvaco ATLAS device tool. We found that the variation in ON-state current in ED-TFET is almost temperature independent due to electrostatically doped mechanism, while, it increases in conventional TFET at higher temperature. Above room temperature, the variation in ION, IOFF, and SS sensitivity in ED-TFET are only 0.11%/K, 2.21%/K, and 0.63%/K, while, in conventional TFET the variations are 0.43%/K, 2.99%/K, and 0.71%/K, respectively. However, below room temperature, the variation in ED-TFET ION is 0.195%/K compared to 0.27%/K of conventional TFET. Moreover, it is analysed that the incomplete ionization effect in conventional TFET severely affects the drive current and the threshold voltage, while, ED-TFET remains unaffected. Hence, the proposed ED-TFET is less sensitive towards temperature variation and can be used for cryogenics as well as for high temperature applications.

Diagnostic performance of {sup 18}F-dihydroxyphenylalanine positron emission tomography in patients with paraganglioma: a meta-analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Treglia, Giorgio; Cocciolillo, Fabrizio; Castaldi, Paola; Rufini, Vittoria; Giordano, Alessandro [Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Institute of Nuclear Medicine, Rome (Italy); De Waure, Chiara; Di Nardo, Francesco; Gualano, Maria Rosaria [Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Institute of Hygiene, Rome (Italy)

2012-07-15

The aim of this study was to systematically review and conduct a meta-analysis of published data about the diagnostic performance of {sup 18}F-dihydroxyphenylalanine (DOPA) positron emission tomography (PET) in patients with paraganglioma (PG). A comprehensive computer literature search of studies published through 30 June 2011 regarding {sup 18}F-DOPA PET or PET/computed tomography (PET/CT) in patients with PG was performed in PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase and Scopus databases. Pooled sensitivity and specificity of {sup 18}F-DOPA PET or PET/CT in patients with PG on a per patient- and on a per lesion-based analysis were calculated. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated to measure the accuracy of {sup 18}F-DOPA PET or PET/CT in patients with PG. Furthermore, a sub-analysis taking into account the different genetic mutations in PG patients was also performed. Eleven studies comprising 275 patients with suspected PG were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity of {sup 18}F-DOPA PET and PET/CT in detecting PG was 91% [95% confidence interval (CI) 87-94%] on a per patient-based analysis and 79% (95% CI 76-81%) on a per lesion-based analysis. The pooled specificity of {sup 18}F-DOPA PET and PET/CT in detecting PG was 95% (95% CI 86-99%) on a per patient-based analysis and 95% (95% CI 84-99%) on a per lesion-based analysis. The area under the ROC curve was 0.95 on a per patient- and 0.94 on a per lesion-based analysis. Heterogeneity between the studies about sensitivity of {sup 18}F-DOPA PET or PET/CT was found. A significant increase in sensitivity of {sup 18}F-DOPA PET or PET/CT was observed when a sub-analysis excluding patients with succinate dehydrogenase subunit B (SDHB) gene mutations was performed. In patients with suspected PG {sup 18}F-DOPA PET or PET/CT demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity. {sup 18}F-DOPA PET or PET/CT are accurate methods in this setting. Nevertheless, possible sources of false

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of system availability using Gaussian processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daneshkhah, Alireza; Bedford, Tim

2013-01-01

The availability of a system under a given failure/repair process is a function of time which can be determined through a set of integral equations and usually calculated numerically. We focus here on the issue of carrying out sensitivity analysis of availability to determine the influence of the input parameters. The main purpose is to study the sensitivity of the system availability with respect to the changes in the main parameters. In the simplest case that the failure repair process is (continuous time/discrete state) Markovian, explicit formulae are well known. Unfortunately, in more general cases availability is often a complicated function of the parameters without closed form solution. Thus, the computation of sensitivity measures would be time-consuming or even infeasible. In this paper, we show how Sobol and other related sensitivity measures can be cheaply computed to measure how changes in the model inputs (failure/repair times) influence the outputs (availability measure). We use a Bayesian framework, called the Bayesian analysis of computer code output (BACCO) which is based on using the Gaussian process as an emulator (i.e., an approximation) of complex models/functions. This approach allows effective sensitivity analysis to be achieved by using far smaller numbers of model runs than other methods. The emulator-based sensitivity measure is used to examine the influence of the failure and repair densities' parameters on the system availability. We discuss how to apply the methods practically in the reliability context, considering in particular the selection of parameters and prior distributions and how we can ensure these may be considered independent—one of the key assumptions of the Sobol approach. The method is illustrated on several examples, and we discuss the further implications of the technique for reliability and maintenance analysis

Gender Differences in Performance of Script Analysis by Older Adults

Science.gov (United States)

Helmes, E.; Bush, J. D.; Pike, D. L.; Drake, D. G.

2006-01-01

Script analysis as a test of executive functions is presumed sensitive to cognitive changes seen with increasing age. Two studies evaluated if gender differences exist in performance on scripts for familiar and unfamiliar tasks in groups of cognitively intact older adults. In Study 1, 26 older adults completed male and female stereotypical…

PDASAC, Partial Differential Sensitivity Analysis of Stiff System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caracotsios, M.; Stewart, W.E.

2001-01-01

1 - Description of program or function: PDASAC solves stiff, nonlinear initial-boundary-value problems in a timelike dimension t and a space dimension x. Plane, circular cylindrical or spherical boundaries can be handled. Mixed-order systems of partial differential and algebraic equations can be analyzed with members of order or 0 or 1 in t, 0, 1 or 2 in x. Parametric sensitivities of the calculated states are computed simultaneously on request, via the Jacobian of the state equations. Initial and boundary conditions are efficiently reconciled. Local error control (in the max-norm or the 2-norm) is provided for the state vector and can include the parametric sensitivities if desired. 2 - Method of solution: The method of lines is used, with a user- selected x-grid and a minimum-bandwidth finite-difference approximations of the x-derivatives. Starting conditions are reconciled with a damped Newton algorithm adapted from Bain and Stewart (1991). Initial step selection is done by the first-order algorithms of Shampine (1987), extended here to differential- algebraic equation systems. The solution is continued with the DASSL predictor-corrector algorithm (Petzold 1983, Brenan et al. 1989) with the initial acceleration phase deleted and with row scaling of the Jacobian added. The predictor and corrector are expressed in divided-difference form, with the fixed-leading-coefficient form of corrector (Jackson and Sacks-Davis 1989; Brenan et al. 1989). Weights for the error tests are updated in each step with the user's tolerances at the predicted state. Sensitivity analysis is performed directly on the corrector equations of Caracotsios and Stewart (1985) and is extended here to the initialization when needed. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: This algorithm, like DASSL, performs well on differential-algebraic equation systems of index 0 and 1 but not on higher-index systems; see Brenan et al. (1989). The user assigned the work array lengths and the output

Sensitivity analysis for daily building operation from the energy and thermal comfort standpoint

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ignjatović Marko G.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Improving energy performance of buildings is one of the most important tasks for reaching sustainability. Assessing building energy consumption is performed more often with specialized simulation tools. Sensitivity analysis proved to be a valuable tool for creating more reliable and realistic building energy models and better buildings. This paper briefly describes the methodology for running global sensitivity analysis and tools that can be used, and presents the results of such an analysis conducted for winter period, daily, on input variables covering a real building's operation, control and occupant related parameters that affect both thermal comfort and heating energy consumption. Two sets of inputs were created. The only difference between these sets is an addition of clothing insulation and occupant heat gain as input variables. The reference building was simulated for three distinctive winter weeks. Two additional input variables have an effect especially on thermal comfort, but they do not disturb the relative order of other influential input variables. The common influential variables for both energy consumption and thermal comfort were identified and are: air handling unit sup-ply temperature and airflow rate and control system related parameters. This can help in future research into implementing the simulation-assisted optimized operation in real buildings. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. TR-33051: The concept of sustainable energy supply of settlements with energy efficient buildings

Structure and sensitivity analysis of individual-based predator–prey models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Imron, Muhammad Ali; Gergs, Andre; Berger, Uta

2012-01-01

The expensive computational cost of sensitivity analyses has hampered the use of these techniques for analysing individual-based models in ecology. A relatively cheap computational cost, referred to as the Morris method, was chosen to assess the relative effects of all parameters on the model’s outputs and to gain insights into predator–prey systems. Structure and results of the sensitivity analysis of the Sumatran tiger model – the Panthera Population Persistence (PPP) and the Notonecta foraging model (NFM) – were compared. Both models are based on a general predation cycle and designed to understand the mechanisms behind the predator–prey interaction being considered. However, the models differ significantly in their complexity and the details of the processes involved. In the sensitivity analysis, parameters that directly contribute to the number of prey items killed were found to be most influential. These were the growth rate of prey and the hunting radius of tigers in the PPP model as well as attack rate parameters and encounter distance of backswimmers in the NFM model. Analysis of distances in both of the models revealed further similarities in the sensitivity of the two individual-based models. The findings highlight the applicability and importance of sensitivity analyses in general, and screening design methods in particular, during early development of ecological individual-based models. Comparison of model structures and sensitivity analyses provides a first step for the derivation of general rules in the design of predator–prey models for both practical conservation and conceptual understanding. - Highlights: ► Structure of predation processes is similar in tiger and backswimmer model. ► The two individual-based models (IBM) differ in space formulations. ► In both models foraging distance is among the sensitive parameters. ► Morris method is applicable for the sensitivity analysis even of complex IBMs.

Space-partition method for the variance-based sensitivity analysis: Optimal partition scheme and comparative study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhai, Qingqing; Yang, Jun; Zhao, Yu

2014-01-01

Variance-based sensitivity analysis has been widely studied and asserted itself among practitioners. Monte Carlo simulation methods are well developed in the calculation of variance-based sensitivity indices but they do not make full use of each model run. Recently, several works mentioned a scatter-plot partitioning method to estimate the variance-based sensitivity indices from given data, where a single bunch of samples is sufficient to estimate all the sensitivity indices. This paper focuses on the space-partition method in the estimation of variance-based sensitivity indices, and its convergence and other performances are investigated. Since the method heavily depends on the partition scheme, the influence of the partition scheme is discussed and the optimal partition scheme is proposed based on the minimized estimator's variance. A decomposition and integration procedure is proposed to improve the estimation quality for higher order sensitivity indices. The proposed space-partition method is compared with the more traditional method and test cases show that it outperforms the traditional one